Full text of National Economic Trends : June 2000
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June 2000 NationalEconomicTrends are producing output for manufacturers. Thus, the productivity figures are slightly exaggerated because the number of workers actually producing the output is larger than what’s reported. How much larger is the number? Economists Marcello Estevão and Saul Lach noted in a recent study that manufacturing firms employed about 890,000 temporary workers between 1991 and 1997, a figure that represents about 5 percent of the 18.5 million or so workers on the books of these firms. While not a tremendous amount, the number is not insignificant, either. And when Estevão and Lach added the temporary workers to the productivity measure, they found that the official manufacturing productivity growth figures were overstated by about half of a percentage point per year. In other words, including all of the workers lowers manufacturing productivity growth in the 1990s from 4 percent to about 3.5 percent each year. Overblown Productivity? A strange thing happened on the way to the 21st century: American workers became increasingly more productive. Productivity at business establishments (excluding farming) averaged growth of 1.9 percent per year in the 1990s—a half-percentage point higher than in the 1980s. But the real stellar performer was the manufacturing sector. In the 1990s, productivity in this sector grew at a phenomenal 4 percent annual rate, which means that people working at manufacturing firms produced considerably more output per hour each year. And the intriguing part is that this productivity growth occurred as average employment at these firms actually fell half of a percentage point each year during the 90s. Talk about know-how in American manufacturing! Across all businesses, though, the story’s not as glamourous. Yes, productivity growth during the 90s was up half of a percentage point a year from the 80s. And, yes, employment growth at private nonfarm businesses in the 90s was slower—though almost imperceptibly slower—than in the 80s. But total employment (unlike manufacturing employment) was still growing— an average of 1.9 percent a year during the 90s versus 2 percent in the 80s—while productivity was rising. Does this mean that employees at manufacturing firms work faster than others? Not at all. One simple explanation is that manufacturing firms generally add capital to their production processes faster than nonmanufacturing (or service-oriented) firms, which enables manufacturing workers to increase their productivity faster. Is this, then, the end of the story? Not quite. The figures for productivity growth at manufacturing firms are a bit misleading. The problem is that when the Bureau of Labor Statistics counts the people working at manufacturing firms, it counts only those who are on the payrolls of the firms. People who work at these plants, but are paid by someone else—such as a temporary employment agency—are not counted, even though they —Adam M. Zaretsky For more information, see the forthcoming article in the July 2000 issue of the St. Louis Fed’s The Regional Economist. Index (1990=100) The Increasingly Productive American Worker 150 140 Manufacturing Productivity 130 120 Nonfarm Business Productivity 110 100 90 Manufacturing Employment 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System 1998 1999 TableofContents Page 3 Economy at a glance 4 Output and growth 7 Interest rates 8 Inflation and prices 10 Labor markets 12 Consumer spending 14 Investment spending 16 Government revenues, spending, and debt 18 International trade 20 Productivity and profits 22 Quick reference tables 27 Notes and sources Conventions used in this publication: 1. Shaded areas indicate recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. 2. Percent change refers to simple percent changes. Percent change from year ago refers to the percent change from the same month or quarter in the previous year. The percent change at annual rate shows what the growth rate would be over an entire year if the same simple percent change continued for four quarters or twelve months. The percent change at annual rate of X between the previous quarter t –1 and the current quarter t is: 100 x [ ( XXt –1t ) 4 –1 ] For monthly data replace 4 with 12. 3. All data with significant seasonal patterns are seasonally adjusted, unless labeled NSA. National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. For more information on data, please call (314) 444-8573. Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing to the Public Affairs Office, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or by calling (314) 444-8808 or (314) 444-8809. Information in this publication is also included on the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board at (314) 621-1824 or Internet World Wide Web server at http://www.stls.frb.org/fred. NationalEconomicTrends Real GDP Growth 06/01/00 Consumer Price Index Industrial Production Interest Rates Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Unemployment Rate Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NationalEconomicTrends 06/01/00 Real Gross Domestic Product Industrial Production and Purchasing Managers’ (NAPM) Indexes Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NationalEconomicTrends 06/01/00 Real Final Sales and GDP Real GDP Revisions Industrial Production and NAPM Index Nominal Gross Domestic Product Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Average Weekly Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Inventory-Sales Ratio Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NationalEconomicTrends 06/01/00 Contribution of Components to Real GDP Growth Contributions to Real GDP Growth Rate 1998 2nd 3rd 4th 1999 1st 2nd Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 3rd 4th 2000 1st NationalEconomicTrends 06/01/00 Interest Rates Treasury Yield Curve Standard and Poor’s 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NationalEconomicTrends 06/01/00 NIPA Chain Price Indexes Consumer Price Index Producer Price Index, Finished Goods Employment Cost Index and Compensation per Hour Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NationalEconomicTrends NIPA Chain Price Indexes 06/01/00 Crude Oil Price Consumer Price Index Consumption Chain Price Index Producer Price Index, Finished Goods Unit Labor Cost Employment Cost Index Compensation per Hour Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NationalEconomicTrends 06/01/00 Employment Unemployment, Labor Force Participation and Employment Rates Duration of Unemployment Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NationalEconomicTrends 06/01/00 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Change in Manufacturing Payrolls Change in Household Employment Labor Force and Population Available Labor Supply and Components Unemployment Rate and Help-Wanted Advertising Index Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NationalEconomicTrends 06/01/00 Real Disposable Personal Income Real Consumption Retail Sales Household Debt Outstanding Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NationalEconomicTrends Real Disposable Personal Income 06/01/00 Personal Saving Rate Real Consumption Real Consumption Retail Sales Real Durables Consumption and Vehicle Sales Consumer Sentiment (U. of Michigan) Real Durables Consumption Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NationalEconomicTrends 06/01/00 Real Investment Real Private Fixed Investment Real Nonresidential Fixed and Equipment & Software Investment Real Residential Fixed Investment Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NationalEconomicTrends 06/01/00 Gross Saving Rates and Net Foreign Investment Real Private Fixed Investment Nondefense Capital Goods Orders Real Equipment & Software Investment Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment Real Residential Fixed Investment Housing Starts Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NationalEconomicTrends 06/01/00 Govt. Consumption and Investment Government Receipts and Outlays Government Budgets Unified Budget National Income Accounts State and Local Receipts Expenditures Federal Surplus or Deficit(-) Receipts Expenditures Federal Surplus or Deficit(-) Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Receipts Outlays Surplus or Deficit(-) NationalEconomicTrends 06/01/00 Federal Debt Federal Deficit Change in Federal Debt Federal Deficit, Unified Basis Federal Government Debt Total Public Debt Held by Agencies and Trusts Total Federal Reserve Banks Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Total Foreign and International NationalEconomicTrends 06/01/00 Trade and Investment Income Balances Exchange Rates Goods Export Shares, 1999 Goods Import Shares, 1999 Mexico 12.71% All Other 32.73% All Other 24.74% Mexico 10.65% Canada 24.33% Canada 19.25% Other OECD 12.96% Other OECD 17.51% Japan 8.41% France Germany UK 3.92% 5.61% France 2.76% Japan 12.75% Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Germany 5.35% UK 2.51% 3.80% NationalEconomicTrends 06/01/00 Trade Balance Goods Trade Current Account Balance Services Trade Real GDP Growth of Major Trading Partners United Kingdom Germany Canada France Japan Mexico Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NationalEconomicTrends 06/01/00 Output per Hour and Capacity Utilization, Manufacturing Nonfarm Compensation per Hour Output per Hour, Nonfarm Business and Nonfarm, Nonfinancial Corporations Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NationalEconomicTrends 06/01/00 Nonfarm Output per Hour Manufacturing Output per Hour Selected Component Shares of National Income Corporate Profits after Tax (with IVA and CCAdj) Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NationalEconomicTrends o~z~o Nominal GDP Biflions of $ 1996 1997 1998 1999 1997 1 2 Real GDP Percent change Annual Year rate ago 7813.2 8300.8 8759.9 9256.1 Final Sales Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 1996 $ 5.6 6.2 5.5 5.7 7813.170 8144.839 8495.650 8848.220 Billions of 1996 $ 3.6 4.2 4.3 4.2 7783.176 8075.512 8420.774 8800.515 Percent change Annual Year rate ago Change in Private lnventones Billions of 1996 $ Last qtr YeariYear ago 3.6 3.8 4.3 4.5 29.994 69.122 74.290 42.205 8125.9 8259.5 8364.5 8453.0 7.4 6.7 5.2 4.3 6.5 6.1 6.4 5.9 8018.735 8115.383 8192.187 8253.208 4.5 4.9 3.8 3.0 4.5 4.0 4.5 4.1 7966.392 5022.664 8132.641 8180.274 3.5 2.9 5.6 2.4 3.9 3.2 4.4 3.6 51.465 93.108 59.187 72.729 41.465 57.175 59.161 69.122 8610.6 8683.7 8797.9 8947.6 7.7 3.4 5.4 7.0 6.0 5.1 5.2 5.9 8391.110 8436.348 8515.730 8639.491 6.9 2.2 3.8 5.9 4.6 4.0 3.9 4.7 8285.502 8389.485 8439.376 8568.654 5.2 5.1 2.4 6.3 4.0 4.6 3.8 4.7 107.278 43.107 76.114 70.658 83.076 70.575 74.807 74.289 3 4 9072.7 9146.2 9297.8 9507.9 5.7 3.3 6.8 9.3 5.4 5.3 5.7 6.3 8717.623 8758.251 8879.824 9037.181 3.7 1.9 5.7 7.3 3.9 3.8 4.3 4.6 8665.010 8737.471 8834.994 8964.584 4.6 3.4 4.5 6.0 4.6 4.1 4.7 4.6 50.134 14.001 37.969 60.003 52.727 43.191 66.716 42.205 2000 1 9697.6 8.2 6.9 9156.723 5.4 5.0 9116.278 6.9 5.2 30.546 37.308 3 4 1998 1 2 3 4 1999 1 2 Consump~on 1996 1997 1998 1999 1997 1 2 Private Fixed Investment DurablesConsump~on Billions of 1996 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 1996 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago 5237.499 5417.250 5681.848 5983.581 3.2 3.4 4.9 5.3 616.475 657.372 731.503 815.704 Nonresidential Fixed Investment Billions of 1996 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 1996 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago 5.6 6.6 11.3 11.5 1212.696 1316.018 1471.849 1590.484 9.3 8.5 11.8 8.1 899.433 995.717 1122.465 1215.764 10.0 10.7 12.7 8.3 5349.162 5369.327 5453.127 5497.279 4.4 1.5 6.4 3.3 3.4 2.7 3.8 3.9 642.077 639.673 669.745 677.981 10.9 —1.5 20.2 5.0 6.7 3.1 8.4 8.4 1274.143 1300.641 1337.931 1351.344 7.9 8.6 12.0 4.1 9.3 8.1 8.6 8.1 957.923 980.832 1017.978 1026.127 9.6 9.9 16.0 3.2 11.2 10.8 11.3 9.6 5575.108 5658.803 5714.216 5779.318 5.8 6.1 4.0 4.6 4.2 5.4 4.8 5.1 704.908 723.883 731.232 766.001 16.9 11.2 4.1 20.4 9.8 13.2 9.2 13.0 1424.202 1466.695 1473.996 1522.491 23.4 12.5 2.0 13.8 11.8 12.8 10.2 12.7 1088.575 1120.181 1120.316 1160.799 26.7 12.1 0.0 15.3 13.6 14.2 10.1 13.1 3 4 5871.289 5944.457 6015.687 6102.891 6.5 5.1 4.9 5.9 5.3 5.0 5.3 5.6 788.780 806.084 821.225 846.728 12,4 9.1 7.7 13.0 11.9 11.4 12.3 10.5 1555.853 1580.980 1607.319 1617.785 9.1 6.6 6.8 2.6 9.2 7.8 9.0 6.3 1182.664 1202.875 1234.274 1243.241 7.8 7.0 10.9 2.9 8.6 7.4 10.2 7.1 2000 1 6214.345 7.5 5.8 890.597 22.4 12.9 1692.475 19.8 8.8 1315.205 25.2 11.2 3 4 1998 1 2 3 4 1999 1 2 Federal Reserve lank of St. Louis NationalEconomicTrends GDP Chain P~ceIndex Index 1996 1997 1998 1999 Employment Cost Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago 100.000 101.910 103.110 104.550 06102100 ECI: ~iYages Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago 1.9 1.9 1.2 1.4 129.3 133.3 138.0 142.4 ECI: Benefits Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago 2.8 3.1 3.5 3.2 126.0 130.4 135.7 140.2 3.3 3.5 4.0 3.4 137.4 140.2 143.6 147.6 1.8 2.0 2.5 2.8 1997 1 2 3 4 101.330 101.770 102.110 102.440 2.8 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.8 131.6 132.7 133.7 135.1 3.1 3.4 3.0 4.3 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.4 128.5 129.7 131.0 132.4 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.3 3.3 3.3 3,6 3.9 138.9 139.7 140.4 141.6 1.2 2.3 2.0 3.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 1998 1 2 3 4 102.680 102.960 103.300 103.510 0.9 1.1 1.3 0.8 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.0 136.2 137.3 138.8 139.7 3.3 3.3 4.4 2.6 3.5 3.5 3.8 3.4 133.7 134.9 136.5 137.5 4.0 3.6 4.8 3.0 4.0 4.0 4.2 3.9 142.2 143.2 144.1 144.9 1.7 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.3 1999 1 2 3 4 104.030 104.370 104.650 105.160 2.0 1.3 1.1 2.0 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.6 140.3 141.8 143.1 144.5 1.7 4.3 3.7 4.0 3.0 3.3 3.1 3.4 138.1 139.7 140.9 142.2 1.8 4.7 3.5 3.7 3.3 3.6 3.2 3.4 145.4 146.8 148.2 149.9 1.4 3.9 3.9 4.7 2.3 2.5 2.8 3.5 2000 1 105.860 2.7 1.8 146.6 5.9 4.5 143.9 4.9 4.2 153.4 9.7 5.5 lmpo~s Expo~s 1996 1997 1998 1999 1997 1 2 Billions of 1996 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago 874.163 983.075 1004.579 1042.345 Nonfarm Output per Hour Billions of 1996 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago 8.2 12.5 2.2 3.8 963.128 1095.221 1222.152 1365.390 NonfarmCompensation(Hr Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago 8.6 13.7 11.6 11.7 105.4 107.1 110.1 113.5 2.6 1.6 2.8 3.1 109.8 113.8 119.8 125.4 3.1 3.6 5.3 4.7 942.103 977,594 1004.186 1008.399 8.3 15.9 11.3 1.7 11.3 13.7 15.8 9.2 1034.679 1080.813 1125.502 1139.901 15.5 19.1 17.6 5.2 12.3 13.7 14.5 14.2 106.0 106.8 107.7 108.0 0.0 3.1 3.4 1.1 1.4 1.1 2.1 1.9 112.1 112.9 114.1 115.9 3.3 2.9 4.3 6.5 3.4 3.2 3.4 4.2 1004.492 994.518 990.628 1028.671 —1.5 —3.9 —1.6 16.3 6.6 1.7 —1.4 2.0 1178.984 1215.554 1230.974 1263.085 14.4 13.0 5.2 10.8 13.9 12.5 9.4 10.8 109.2 109.5 110.4 111.5 4.5 1.1 3.3 4.0 3.0 2.5 2,5 3.2 117.3 118.9 120.7 122.1 4.9 5.6 6.2 4.7 4.6 5.3 5.8 5,3 4 1014.300 1024.292 1052.623 1078.166 —5.5 4.0 11.5 10.1 1.0 3.0 6.3 4.8 1300.887 1345.384 1392.982 1422.309 12.5 14.4 14.9 8.7 10.3 10.7 13.2 12.6 112.2 112.4 113.7 115.6 2.5 0.7 4.7 6.9 2.7 2.6 3.0 3.7 123.3 124.8 126.2 127.4 4.0 5.0 4.6 3.9 5.1 5.0 4.6 4,3 2000 1 1092.573 5.5 7.7 1465.486 12.7 12.7 11 6.3 2.4 3.7 128.7 4.1 4.4 3 4 1998 1 2 3 4 1999 1 2 3 Federal Reserve F ,nkof St. Louis NationalEconomicTrends Household Survey Employment 06101100 Nonfarm Payroll Employment Nonfarm Aggregate Hours Thousands Change Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index Percent change Monthly Annual Year rate rate ago 124908 126715 129565 131463 133492 1837 1807 2850 1898 2030 1.5 1.4 2.2 1.5 1.5 117189 3054 2.7 119594 122673 125803 128607 2405 3079 3130 2805 2.1 2.6 2.6 2.2 133.4 136.6 141.4 145.1 147.9 2.7 2.4 3.5 2.6 1.9 4 130861 131256 131526 132208 413 394 270 682 1.3 1.2 0.8 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.3 124771 125462 126113 126865 825 691 651 752 2.7 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 144.2 144.7 145.3 146.2 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.7 3.0 1.3 1.6 2.7 3.3 2.7 2.4 2.1 1 2 3 133077 133214 133526 869 137 312 2.7 0.4 0.9 1.7 1.5 1.5 127640 128246 128936 776 606 690 2.5 1 .9 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.2 147.0 147.3 148.3 0.5 0.2 0.7 2.0 1.0 2.7 1.9 1.8 2.1 4 134153 626 1.9 1.5 129606 670 2.1 2.2 149.1 0.6 2.3 2.0 1 135247 1095 3.3 1.6 130463 856 2.7 2.2 150.4 0.8 3.3 2.3 1998 Apr May 131255 131278 131234 401 23 —44 3.7 0.2 —0.4 1.6 1.5 1.4 125220 125478 125689 259 258 211 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.6 2.6 2.6 144.3 0.1 1.7 2.6 145.0 144.8 0.5 —0.1 6.0 —1.6 2.7 2.8 131274 131381 131922 40 107 541 0.4 1.0 5.1 1.1 1.1 1.5 125808 126170 126361 119 362 191 1.1 3.5 1.8 2.4 2.7 2.5 145.2 145.5 145.1 0.3 0.2 —0.3 3.4 2.5 —3.2 2.7 2.5 1.9 131950 132156 132517 28 206 361 0.3 1.9 3.3 1.4 1.2 1.4 126567 126841 127186 206 274 345 2.0 2.6 3.3 2.4 2.3 2.4 146.0 146.1 146.6 0.6 0.1 0.3 7.7 0.8 4.2 2.3 2.0 2.2 133225 133029 132976 708 —196 —53 6.6 —1.8 —0.5 1.8 1.6 1.6 127378 127730 127813 192 352 83 1.8 3.4 0.8 2.2 2.4 2.3 146.8 147.3 146.8 0.1 0.3 —0.3 1.6 1.7 4.2 —4.0 2.1 1.9 133054 133190 133398 78 136 208 0.7 1.2 1.9 1.4 1.5 1.6 128134 128162 128443 321 28 281 3.1 0.3 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.2 147.0 147.2 147.8 0.1 0.1 0.4 1,6 1.6 5.0 1.9 1.5 2.1 Sep 133399 133530 133650 1 131 120 0.0 1.2 1.1 1.6 1.6 1.3 128816 128945 129048 373 129 103 3.5 1.2 1.0 2.4 2.2 2.1 148.3 148.4 148.2 0.3 0.1 —0.1 4.1 0.8 —1.6 2.1 2.0 2.1 Oct Nov Dec 133940 134098 134420 290 158 322 2.6 1.4 2.9 1.5 1.5 1.4 129332 129589 129898 284 257 309 2.7 2.4 2.9 2.2 2.2 2.1 148.8 149.2 149.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 5.0 3.3 1.6 1.9 2.1 1.9 2000 Jan Feb Mar 135221 135362 135159 801 141 —203 7.4 1.3 —1.8 1.5 1.8 1.6 130292 130319 130777 394 27 458 3.7 0.2 4.3 2.3 2.0 2.3 150.3 0.6 150.1 150.7 —0.1 0.4 7.5 —1.6 4.9 2.4 1.9 2.7 Apr 135706 547 5.0 2.0 131117 340 3.2 2.3 151.5 0.5 6.6 3.1 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1998 1 2 3 1999 2000 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1999 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Thousands Change Percent change Year Annual rate ago Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis National Economic Trends 06101/00 Retail Sales Industrial Production Percent chenae Monthly! Annual Year quarterly rate ago Unempl. Rate Billions of dollars 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 5.6 5.4 4.9 4.5 4.2 2361.343 2496.503 2612.931 2745.714 2992.367 1 2 4.7 3 4 4.5 4.4 668.657 684.020 686.919 706.118 0.9 2.3 0.4 2.8 1 2 3 4 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.1 723.050 738.647 756.594 774.076 1 4.1 1998 May Jun Index Percent change Monthly! Annual Year quarterly rate ago 5.1 5.7 4.7 5.1 9.0 114.418 119.445 126.953 132.365 136.980 3.8 9.5 1.7 11.7 3.4 6.1 4.2 6.6 130.897 131.856 132.811 133.895 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.3 9.9 8.9 10.1 9.6 8.1 8.0 10.1 9.6 134.569 136.109 137.721 139.521 799.207 3.2 13.6 10.5 4.4 4.5 227.791 230.046 0.7 1.0 8.9 12.5 Jul Aug Sep 4.5 4.5 4.5 228.231 228.078 230.610 —0.8 —0.1 1.1 Oct Nov Dec 4.5 4.4 4.4 233.751 235.251 237.116 1999 Jan Feb Mar 4.3 4.4 4.2 Apr May Jun Treasury Yields 3~mo 10—yr 4.9 4.4 6.3 4.3 3.5 5.49 5.01 5.06 4.78 4.64 6.58 6.44 6.35 5.26 5.64 2.4 3.0 2.9 3.3 5.7 4.8 3.8 2.9 5.05 4.98 4.82 4.26 5.59 5.60 5.20 4.67 0.5 1.1 1.2 1.3 2.0 4.7 4.8 5.3 2.8 3.2 3.7 4.2 4.41 4.45 4.65 5.04 4.98 5.54 5.88 6.14 141.630 1.5 6.2 5.2 5.52 6.48 7.1 6.4 132.434 131.481 0.6 —0.7 7.3 —8.3 5.3 3.9 5.00 4.98 5.65 5.50 —9.1 —0.8 14.2 4.3 3.6 4.7 131.291 133.593 133.548 —0.1 1.8 —0.0 —1.7 23.2 —0.4 3.2 4.4 3.7 4.96 4.90 4.61 5.46 5.34 4.81 1.4 0.6 0.8 17.6 8.0 9.9 6.3 6.5 6.9 134.108 133.777 133.801 0.4 —0.2 0.0 5.1 —2.9 0.2 3.5 2.8 2.5 3.96 4.42 4.39 4.53 4.83 4.64 239.154 241.580 242.316 0.9 1.0 0.3 10.8 12.9 3.7 7.7 8.5 8.2 134.052 134.509 135.147 0.2 0.3 0.5 2.3 4.2 5.8 2.4 2.9 3.1 4.34 4.44 4.44 4.72 5.00 5.23 4.3 4.2 4.3 244.351 246.991 247.305 0.8 1.1 0.1 10.6 13.8 1.5 8.0 8.4 7.5 135.472 136.215 136.639 0.2 0.5 0.3 2.9 6.8 3.8 2.9 2.9 3.9 4.29 4.50 4.57 5.18 5.54 5.90 Jul Aug Sep 4.3 4.2 4.2 249.816 253.030 253.748 1.0 1.3 0.3 12.9 16.6 3.5 9.5 10.9 10.0 137.363 137.736 0.5 0.3 6.5 3.3 4.6 3.1 138.064 0.2 2.9 3.4 4.55 4.72 4.68 5.79 5.94 5.92 Oct Nov Dec 4.1 4.1 4.1 254.959 257.489 261.628 0.5 1.0 1.6 5.9 12.6 21.1 9.1 9.5 10.3 139.056 139.433 140.075 0.7 0.3 0.5 9.0 3.3 5.7 3.7 4.2 4.7 4.86 5.07 5.20 6.11 6.03 6.28 2000 Jan Feb Mar 4.0 4.1 4.1 263.493 267.164 268.550 0.7 1.4 0.5 8.9 18.1 6.4 10.2 10.6 10.8 141.117 141.366 142.408 0.7 0.2 9.3 2.1 5.3 0.7 9.2 5.1 5.4 5.32 5.55 5.69 6.66 6.52 6.26 Apr May 3.9 268.065 —0.2 —2.1 9.7 143.683 0.9 11.3 6.1 5.66 5.79 5.99 6.44 1998 1999 2000 ~ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NationalEconomicTrends 06/01/00 Consumer P~ceIndex less Food and Energy Consumer Price Index Index Percent change Monthly! Annual Year quarterly rate ago Year to date Index Percent change Monthly! Annual Year quarterly rate ago Producer P~ceIndex FinishedGoods Year to date Index Percent chanae Monthly! Annual Year quarterly rate ago 1995 1996 152.5 157.0 2.8 2.9 1997 1998 1999 160.6 163.1 166.7 2.3 1.6 2.2 1 2 162.1 162.8 163.5 164.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.0 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.5 172.2 173.2 174.2 175.1 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 130.6 130.5 130.6 —0.8 —0.0 0.1 —3.0 —0.1 0.2 —1.6 —0.7 —0.6 131.0 0.3 1.1 —0.5 164.9 3 4 166.2 167.2 168.4 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.7 1.7 3.3 2.5 2.9 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.6 1.7 2.5 2.5 2.6 175.9 176.8 177.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.9 2.1 1.9 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 0.7 1.4 2.3 0.6 2.3 2.1 2.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.8 1.4 2.7 4.0 178.7 131.4 132.3 133.6 134.7 3.4 2.9 1 170.1 1.0 4.0 3.2 4.0 179.7 0.6 2.3 2.1 2.3 136.4 1.2 4.9 3.8 1998 Apr May Jun 162.5 162.8 163.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 2.2 2.2 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.5 172.9 173.3 173.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 2.8 2.8 1.4 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.8 2.8 2.6 130.6 130.5 130.5 0.0 —0.1 0.0 0.0 —0.9 0.0 —0.9 —0.7 —0.6 Jul 163.3 163.5 163.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 2.2 1.5 0.7 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.5 173.8 174.2 174.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.1 2.8 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.5 130.8 130.4 130.6 0.2 —0.3 0.2 2.8 —3.6 1.9 —0.2 —0.8 —0.9 163.9 164.2 164.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 2.2 2.2 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 174.7 175.0 175.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.4 2.1 3.5 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.5 131.0 130.8 131.1 0.3 —0.2 0.2 3.7 —1.8 2.8 —0.7 —0.6 —0.1 164.7 164.8 165.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 2.2 0.7 2.2 1.7 1.7 1.8 2.2 1.5 1.7 175.8 175.8 176.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 2.1 2.1 1.0 1.4 131.6 131.1 131.6 4.7 0.0 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.1 0.4 Feb Mar —0.4 0.4 —4.5 4.7 0.8 0.5 0.8 Apr May Jun 166.2 166.2 166.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 8.3 0.0 0.0 2.3 2.1 2.0 3.3 2.6 2.2 176.7 176.8 177.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 4.2 0.7 1.4 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.7 132.2 132.3 132.4 0.5 0.1 0.1 5.6 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.5 Jul Aug Sep 166.7 167.2 167.8 0.3 0.3 0.4 3.7 3.7 4.4 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.8 177.4 177.5 178.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 2.7 0.7 4.1 2.1 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.7 2.0 132.7 133.5 134.6 0.2 0.6 0.8 2.8 7.5 10.3 1.5 2.4 3.1 Oct Nov Dec 168.1 168.4 168.8 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.2 2.2 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 178.4 178.7 178.9 0.2 0.2 0.1 2.0 2.0 1.4 2.1 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.9 134.6 134.7 134.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9 1.8 2.7 3.0 2.9 2000 Jan Feb Mar 169.1 170.0 171.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 2.2 6.6 8.8 2.7 2.2 179.2 0.2 2.0 1.9 2.0 3.2 3.7 4.3 5.8 179.5 180.3 0.2 0.4 2.0 5.5 2.1 2.4 2.0 3.2 135.0 136.4 137.7 0.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 13.2 12.1 2.6 4.0 4.6 Apr 171.2 0.0 0.0 3.0 4.3 180.6 0.2 2.0 2.2 2.9 137.3 —0.3 —3.4 3.9 1998 3 4 1999 2000 1 2 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1999 Jan 161.4 165.8 169.7 173.7 177.3 127.9 131.3 131.8 130.7 133.0 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.1 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 1.9 2.6 0.4 —0.9 1.8 Notes Pages 4, 5: Final sales is gross domestic product (GDP) minus change in private inventories. Advance, preliminary, and final GDP growth rates are released during the first, second, and third months of the following quarter. Changes result from incorporation of more complete information. Real GDP is measured in 1996 dollars. The Purchasing Managers’ Index is a weighted average of diffusion indexes for new orders, production, supplier deliveries, inventories, and employment. The National Association of Purchasing Management (NAPM) surveys over 300 firms in 20 manufacturing industries, weighting responses by industry share of GDP. Aggregate and average weekly hours are paid hours of production and nonsupervisory employees. The inventory-sales ratio uses nominal (current-dollar) inventory and sales data. Page 6: Beginning with the October 1999 comprehensive revision to the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA), a new formula is used to calculate the contribution of a component to the overall GDP growth rate. The new formula produces estimates roughly equivalent to the old formula. For more information, see the October 1999 issue of the Survey of Current Business, p. 16. The sign is changed for imports. Page 7: Ten-year Treasury yields are adjusted to constant maturity. Three-month yields are secondary market averages, but all rates used in the yield curves are adjusted to constant maturity. Standard and Poor’s 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends shows the total return: capital gains plus dividends. Pages 8,9: Oil prices are monthly averages of daily spot prices for West Texas intermediate crude (Wall Street Journal). Consumer price index is for all urban consumers. The consumption chain price index is the index associated with the personal consumption expenditures component of GDP. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) covers private nonfarm employers. ECI compensation refers to a fixed sample of jobs, while compensation per hour covers all workers in the nonfarm business sector in a given quarter. In both cases, compensation is wages and salaries plus benefits. Pages 10,11: Nonfarm payroll employment is counted in a survey of about 390,000 establishments (Current Employment Survey). It excludes self-employed individuals and workers in private households, but double-counts individuals with more than one job. The household survey (Current Population Survey) of about 50,000 households provides estimates of civilian employment, unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and employment-population ratio. Population is civilian, noninstitutional, 16 years and over. New population controls introduced in January 2000 affect levels and growth rates of household survey employment, labor force and population. The unemployment rate and other series were minimally affected. 90 percent confidence intervals for the unemployment rate (± 0.2 percentage points) and change in household survey employment (± 376,000) measure uncertainty due to sample size. The available labor supply is the sum of the unemployed and those persons not in the labor force but who want to work now. The household survey was significantly changed in January 1994, so care should be exercised in making short-term comparisons around this date, particularly with the duration data shown on page 10. Pages 13: The Michigan consumer sentiment index shows changes in a summary measure of consumers’ answers to five questions about their current and expected financial situation, expectations about future economic conditions, and attitudes about making large purchases. The survey is based on a representative sample of U.S. households. Pages 14, 15: Overall gross saving includes government saving, which is the sum of the government surplus and capital consumption (see notes for pages 16 and 17). Net foreign investment (NFI) is U.S. investment abroad minus foreign investment in the U.S. Aside from a statistical discrepancy, NFI also equals the difference between gross domestic investment and saving. The comprehensive revision introduced the equipment & software component of business investment. Pages 16, 17: Government consumption and investment is current expenditures on goods and services, including capital consumption (depreciation) and gross investment, as reported in the NIPAs. The unified federal budget deficit differs from NIPA basis in four main ways: (1) NIPA excludes transactions involving existing assets; (2) NIPA outlays exclude government investment and include consumption of government capital, while unified budget outlays do the reverse; (3) NIPA accounts exclude Puerto Rico and U.S. territories; and (4) various timing issues are handled differently. Outlays and receipts are from the NIPAs, except as noted. Since 1977, the federal fiscal year starts on October 1. Excluded agency debt was 0.6 percent of federal debt at the end of fiscal 1997. Federal debt held by the public includes holdings of the Federal Reserve System and excludes holdings of the social security and other federal trust funds. Federal grants in aid to state and local governments appear in both state and local receipts and federal outlays. Pages 18, 19: The trade balance (shown on a balance of payments basis) is the difference between exports and imports of goods (merchandise) and services. It is nearly identical in concept to the net exports component of GDP, but differs slightly in accounting details. The investment income balance equals income received from U.S.owned assets in other countries minus income paid on foreign-owned assets in the U.S. The investment income balance is nearly identical in concept to the difference between gross national product and gross domestic product, but differs in accounting details. The current account balance is the trade balance plus the balance on investment income plus net unilateral transfers to the U.S. from other countries. Pages 20, 21: Output per hour (Y/H), unit labor cost (C/Y), and compensation per hour (C/H) are indexes which approximately obey the following relationship: %(Y/H) + %(C/Y) = %(C/H) with %() meaning percent changes. Unit labor cost is shown on page 9. Real compensation per hour uses the CPI to adjust for the effects of inflation. Nonfarm business accounted for about 76 percent of the value of GDP in 1996, while nonfinancial corporations accounted for about 54 percent. Inventory valuation adjustments (IVA) remove the effect of changes in the value of existing inventories from corporate profits and proprietors’ income. (This change in value does not correspond to current production and therefore is not part of GDP). Capital consumption adjustments (CCAdj) increase profits and proprietors’ income by the difference between estimates of economic depreciation and depreciation allowed by the tax code. Components of national income not shown are rental income of persons and net interest. Sources Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Dept. of Commerce National income and product accounts, international trade and investment data (except by country), auto and light truck sales Census Bureau, U.S. Dept. of Commerce Inventory-sales ratios, retail sales, capital goods orders, housing starts, exports and imports by country Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Dept. of Labor All employment-related data, employment cost index, consumer and producer price indexes, unit labor cost, output per hour, compensation per hour, multifactor productivity United States Department of Treasury Unified budget receipts, outlays, deficit, debt Federal Reserve Board Index of industrial production, treasury yields, exchange rates, capacity utilization, household debt The Survey Research Center, The University of Michigan Consumer sentiment index The Conference Board Help-wanted advertising index Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) GDP for major trading partners (not available on FRED)
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