Full text of National Economic Trends : June 1996

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JUNE 1996

National
Economic
Trends
Are Real Wages
Really Falling?
One notion that has seemingly become part of the
conventional wisdom recently is the idea that wage
growth has not kept pace with inflation. This is com­
monly denoted by the fact that the real average hourly
earnings (AHE) series published each month by the
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has shown little or
no growth over the past three decades.
Despite its appeal to policymakers and pundits, the
real average hourly earnings series published by BLS
can be seriously misleading as a measure of worker
pay. The main reason is that it omits almost all benefits,
including employer-provided pension contributions,
health insurance premiums, and any legally required
benefits, such as the employer’s share of payroll taxes
for Social Security and Medicare. On the other hand,
real hourly compensation (CPH) of the business sector,
another BLS series, includes all forms of compensation.
The chart below plots real (inflation-adjusted)
AHE and CPH since 1964. Prior to 1973, both
series more or less moved in tandem, although
CPH generally increased at a faster rate. Since
then, however, hourly compensation has continued
to increase, albeit at a greatly reduced pace,
while average hourly earnings has not: From
1973 to 1995, real AHE fell at a 0.6 percent
annual rate, while real CPH rose at a 0.4 percent
rate—a marked contrast to the 1.7 percent (AHE)
and 2.6 percent (CPH) growth rates that prevailed
between 1964 and 1973.
One reason AHE has declined over time but
CPH has not is that many fringe benefits are not
taxable whereas cash wages are. The most im­
portant example is employer-provided health

insurance premiums. In addition, payroll taxes have
risen significantly over time as share of total compen­
sation. Overall, however, compensation growth has
waned significantly since the early 1970s. Most
economists attribute this to the marked slowing in me
growth of business productivity that began around 1973.
Also often overlooked is the fact that both series
probably understate actual increases in real pay over
time because both are deflated by the Consumer Price
Index (CPI), which most experts believe overstates
the rate of inflation. For example, the 1995 Report

by the Advisory Commission to Study the Consumer
Price Index estimated that the CPI overstated the actual
inflation rate by between 1 percent and 2.7 percent per
year over the period from 1987 to 1995. If we assume
the 1 percent estimate is correct, then real AHE would
have actually increased by an average annual rate o f
about 0.5 percent over this period, while growth in
CPH would have been at about a 1.2 percent annual
rate. During the same period, business sector produc­
tivity grew 1 percent per year on average.
—Kevin L. Kliesen
Real Hourly Compensation and Average Hourly Earnings
$1982

NOTE: Hourly compensation deflated by the CPI for Wage Earners and Clerical Workers.
Average hourly earnings deflated by the CP! for All Urban Consumers.

Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions o f the Federal Reserve System
National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research Division o f the Federal Reserve Bank o f St. Louis. For more information on data, please
call (314) 444-8573. Single-copy subscriptions are available free o f charge by writing Public Affairs Office, Federal Reserve Bank o f St. Louis, Post Office
Box 442, St. Louis, M O 63166-0442 or by calling (314) 444-8808 or (314) 444-8809. Information in this publication is also included in the Federal Reserve

DigitizedEconomic
for FRASER
Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board at (314) 621-1824 or internet World Wide Web server at http://www.stls.frb.org/fred.


Table of Contents
Page
3-4
5-6
7-8
9
10
11
12-13
14
15
16-17
18-21
22
23
24
25-27

Nominal and Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Price Deflators
Consumer and Producer Prices
Employment Costs
Productivity and Unit Labor Cost
Industrial Production
Employment and Unemployment
Real Personal Income
Retail Sales
Inventories and Final Sales
Components of Real GDP
U.S. International Transactions
Gross Saving and Investment
Corporate Profits and Cash Flow
Government Budget Data

How to Use the Triangles in This Publication
This publication makes extensive use of “ triangles” to present compound annual rates of change over various periods.
Consider the simple, abbreviated triangle below for quarterly Real Gross Domestic Product from the first quarter of
1994 to the fourth quarter of 1995. From this triangle, the reader can obtain rates of change from any date on the top
row to any date along the left column; actual dollar figures for the periods in the left-most column are shown in the
right-most column. In our example, the compound annual rate of growth from 11/1994 to III/1995 can be found at the
intersection of the 11/1994 column and the III/1995 row, a 2.3 percent rate; similarly, the annual rate of change from
1/1994 to IV/1995 is 2.4 percent. Reading down the diagonal gives the growth rate from one quarter to the next.

Real Gross Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
Annual Rates

Initial Quarter
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95

1-94

2-94

4.8
4.2*
3.8
3.0
2.5
2.7
2.4

3.6
3.4
2.4
1.9
2.3
2.0




3-94

3.2
1.9
1.4
1.9
1.7

4-94

0.6
0.5
1.5
1.4

2

1-95

0.5
2.0
1.6

2-95

3.6
2.2

3-95

0.9

6,581.5
6,639.5
6.691.3
6,701.6
6,709.4
6,768.3
6,783.8

Gross Domestic Product
Seasonally Adjusted
Trillions of Dollars

Trillions of Dollars

Real GDP is chain-weight quantity index scaled to 1992 dollars.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-91
3.91

4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-9S
4-95
1-96

4.0
3.8
5.2
5.2

3-91

5.1
5.5
5.2
5.1

3.6
5.9
57
5.4
5.8
5.4
5.2

5,0
5.2

5.1
5.3

5.3
5.1
£.2
5.0
5.0

$.3
5.5
55
55
5.4
5.2
5.2
5.1
5.0

2-91

3-91

5.3
5.4
5.4

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

Initial Quarter
2-93 3-93 4-93

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95
5,950.0
6,002.3

8,2
6.7
6.0
6.3
58
5.5

5.3
5.0
5.7
5.2
5.0

5.3
5.5
5.5
56
57
5.7

4.8
5.1

5.5
5.3
5.4
5.2

5.3
5.1

6,121.8
6,201.2
4.6
5.9
52
49

52
5.4

4.7
51
5.2
5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

4.8
52
5.3
5.5
5.6
5.5
5.4
5.1
5.2
5.0
4.9
3-92

5.1

5.0
4.9

5.4
5.3
5.1
5.1
4.9
4.9

4-91

1-92

2-92

52

First quarter data are preliminary estimates.




7.3
5.5
5.0

6,271.7
6,383.0
6,442.8
6,503.2

3.8
3.8

3.8

4.0
4.7

4.0
5.0

4.3
5.6

7.0

4.9
5.2

5.1
5.5
5.6
5.5
5.3
5.0
5.1
4.9

5.6
5.9
5.9
5.8

6.2
6.4
6.3
6.1

5.4
6.1
6.1
5.9

6.8
6.4
6.1

6.1
5.7

5.4

5.8
5.3
5.4
5.0
5.0

55
5.1
5.2
4.8
4.8

5.5
5.0
5.1
4.7
4.7

5.1
4.5
4.8
4.4
4.4

4.6
4.0
4.4
4.0
4.1

3.9
3.3
4.1
3.7

4.8

5.5
5.2
5.3
5.0
4.9

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

5J
5.3
5.2
4.9
5.0
4.8
4.7
4-92

3.8

2.8
4.3
3.6
3.8

5.8
4.0
4.2

3.4

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

VQ

ÌÀ Ó
2.3
4-95

6,571.3
6,683.7
6,772.8
6,885.0
6,987.6
7,080.0
7,147.8
7,196.5
7,298.5
7,340.4

MHlO\

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 31, 1996

Real Gross Domestic Product
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Trend is ten-year moving average of chain-weight (1992 dollar) growth rate. The fixed-weight trend
(not shown) differs only slightly.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Gross Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95

1-96

Billions of Chained
2-91
10
1.0

3-91

22

2.8
2.7

2.3
2.5
2.8

2.4
2.3
2.3
2.5
2.5
2.7
2.8 .
2.8
2.7
2.5
2 .0

2.5

4-91

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
6,089.3
6,104.4

1.0

2.8
3.1
2.6
2.5
2.4
27

2.7
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.6
2.7
2.5

4.7
3.6
3.4
3.7
2.9
2.7
2.7
2.9
29
31
3.1
31
2.9
2.7
2.8
2.6

2j5 2.5 26
2-91

1-92

Initial Quarter
2-93 3-93 4-93

3-91

4-91

6,175.3
6,214.2
6,260,9
6,327.3

2.5
2.8 "'ab'!
3.7
3.3
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.3
2.7
2.6

4.3
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.6

2.6
2.9
2.9
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.7
2.5

2.6
29
3.0
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.7
2.5

2.6
2.9
3.0
3.0
2.8
2.5
2.6
2.5

22
2.7

2.9
2.8
3.2

2.8
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.5
2.3

3.3
3.3
2.9
2.6
2.7
2.5

•24S
1-92

2.5
2-92

2,5
3-92

4-92

*0.0
0.8

1.3
2.2

to

2.3 2.5
1-93

2.3
3.5
3.2
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.1
2.8
2.8
2.6
2.6

3.6
4.0
3.9
3.7
3.2
2.8
2.9
2.6
2.6

2.5
37

2-93

3-93

4-93

4.7

3.6
3.5
2.9
2.5
2.7
2.4
2.4

4.8
4.2
3.8
3.0
2.5
2.7
2.4

2.4
1-94

6,504.6
6,581.5
3.6
3.4
2.4
1.9
2.3
2.0
2.0
2-94

3.2
1.9
1.4
1.9
1.6
1.8
3-94

0.6
0.5
1.5
1.3
1.5
4-94

6,639.5
6,691.3
6,701.6
6,709.4

0.5
2.0
1.5
17

3.6
2.0
2.1

0.5
1.4

2.3

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

.

6,768.3
6,776.5
6,815.5

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

First quarter data are preliminary estimates.




6,327.0
6,353.7
6,390.4
6,463.9

1.7

May 31,1996

4

GDP Chain Price Index
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

GDP Chain Price Index
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95

2.9
2.7
2.9
2.9
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.5

23
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.5
2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

Initial Quarter
2-93 3-93 4-93

1992=100
1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95
97.7
98.3

2.5
2.9
2.9
2.6
2.6
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
3-91

3,3
3.1
2.6
2.6
2.8
2.8
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.5
4-91

99.1
99.8
100,2
100.9
101.8
102.4
102.8
103.4
104.1
104.6

2.9

22.
2.4
2.7
2.7
2.5
2.5

23
2.4
2,4
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.4
1-92

Firstfor
quarter
data are preliminary estimates.
Digitized
FRASER


1.6
2.2
2.7
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.4
2-92

2.8
3.2
2.9
2.6
2.5
2.6
2.5

23
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
n
e
4.0
3-92

3.6
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5

2.4
2.0
2.1

1.6
2.0

2.4

2.3
2.2

2.2

23
2.3
2.3
2.3

<3C.

2.2
2.2
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.4

2.1
2.2
2.2
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.3
- 2*4
OA

4-92

1-93

2-93

23
2.5

23
2.4
2.4
3-93

2.7
2.3
2.3
2.3
2,5
2.5
2.5
2.4

1.9
2.1 .. 2.3
2.2
2.3
2.7
2.5
2.6
2.5
23
2.4
2.4
2.5
2*5 :.. 2.4

4-93

5

1-94

2-94

2.3
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.5

ZZ

¿.3

3.4
2.9
2.7
2.6
Oft

3-94

4-94

1-95

2.3
23

2.3
2.2

2*3 : <£A
2-95

' i 2.2

¿.A
3-95

105.2
105.8
106.7
107.3
107.9
108.5
4rtQ
o
iuy.<£

4-95

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 31,1996

GDP Fixed-Weight Price Index
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

2-91

3-91

3.3
2.9
3.1
2.6
2.4
2.6
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.7
2.6
2.5
26
2.6
2,5
2.6
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6 : 2.6
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.6
4-91

1-92

1.6
2.2
2.7
2.6
25
2.5
2.6
25
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.5
25
2.5
2-92

3-92

2.8
3.2
29
2.7
2.6
27
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.7

4-92

1-93

1992=100

Initial Quarter
2-93 3-93 4-93

1-94

2-94

1-95

4-94

3-94

2-95

3-95

4-95
97.7
98.3
99.1
99.8
100.2
100.9

3.6
30
2.7
2.6
2.7

2.4
22
2.2
2.5
24

2.6
2.6
2.6

2.6
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6

2.5
2.5
2.5
25
2.5

3-92

4-92

1-93

2.3
2.4

101.8
102.4
2.0
2.2
2.5
23
2.3
2.4

.
2.4
2.7
25
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.6

2.5

2.6
2.6

3.1
25
2.5
2.5
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.6

2-93

3-93

4-93

2.5
2.6
2.5
2.5

2J6

19
2.1
2.3
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.5
1-94

2.3
2.5
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.6

3.1
2.9
2.8
2.6
2.6

2-94

3-94

102.9
103.5
104.3
104.8
105.4
106.1

2.7
3.4
3.0
2.8
2.6

107.0
107.7

26

2.6
24
2.4
2.4

eg

2.5
2.9
2.9
2.6
2.6
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6

2-92

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

2.2
2.2

2.2

<0

: 23
2.5
2.8
2.8
2.5
2.6
2.7
27
2.6
2.6
2.6
26
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6

1-92

4-91

<M

3-91

't
CM

3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
1-96

2-91

108.3
108.9
109.6

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 31,1996

First quarter data are preliminary estimates.

Personal Consumption Expenditure Chain Price Index
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
4-95
1-96

2-91
2.9
3.3
3.5
3.4
32
3.2
3.2
31
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

Initial Quarter
2-93 3-93 4-93

1992=100
1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

97.1
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.1
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8

3.7
3.5
3.1
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.8
2.8
2.7
27
2.7
27

2.8
2.8

2.7
27

2.6
2£

2.6
2.6

2-91

3-91

98.0
98.9
3.3
2.9
3.0
2.9
2.9
2.6
2.6

99.7

2.6
2.6

2.4
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.5
2.5
2.5
25

2.6
2.6
2,6
2.6

2.5
25
2.5
25
2.4

3.2
2.8
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.5 ! 22.
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.6
2.5
25
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.6
25

2.5

2.5
2.5

2.4

2.4
2A

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

2.6

First quarter data are preliminary estimates.




100.3
101.1
2.8
2.0
2.2
2.3
23
2.4
24
2.4
2.5

1.2
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.4

9A :
1g fm/v
2.4
2.3
2.3
94
2.3

4-92

1-93

2-93

;

2.8
2.5
2.5
2.6
26
2.6
2.6

23
2.3
2.6
25
25
2.6
O

101.8
102.5
102.8
103.5
104.1
104.7

: ■ il

2.3
2.7
2.6

3.1
27

2.6
2.6

2.7
2.7

z$
2.5

2.7
2.7

105.5
106.1
106.8
107.5
iu /,a
108.4

2.3

A

2.6

2.4

2.3
2.3

2.3
2.3

2.3
23

2.2
2. 2

2.2
2.2

2.0
2,1

1
1.7
1.9

1.9
2.0

2.2

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

' PÜ

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
M
a u 331,1996
1 1QQfi
May

109.0

Consumer Price Index
Percent Change From Previous Year
Percent

Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Consumer Price Index
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94
10*94
11-94

0.8
2.0

12-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
5-95
6-95
7-95

22

8-95
9-95
10-95
11-95
12-95
1-96
2-96
3-96
4-96

1-95

2-95

4-95

Initial Month
5-95 6-95 7-95

1982-84=100
8-95

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96
149.5
149.9
150.2
150.6
150.9
151.3
151.8
152.2
152.6
152.7
153.0
153.2

3.3
2.4
2.8
2.7
2.8
3.1
3.1
3.1
2.8
2.8
2.6

3.2
3.2
3.2
2.9
2.8
2.7

2.8
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.8

2.8
2.6
2.6
2.8
2.7
2.9

2.4
2.8
3.2
3.2
3.2
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.8
2.6
2.5
2.7
2.7
2.8

2.9

3.0

3.0

2.8
2.6
2.8
2.6
2.6
2.8
2.7
2.9
3.0

9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94

1-95

2-95

2.4
2.4
2.6
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.7
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.9

3-95

2.8
3.0
2.8
2.9
3.1
3.1
3.1
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.8
2.7
2.9
3.0




3.2
2.8
3.0

3.2
3.6
3.5
3.4
2.9

4.0
3.6
3.5
2.8
2.7
2.5

3.2
3.2
2.4
2.4
2.2

2.7
2.5
2,5
2.7
2.7
2.8
3.0

2.5
2.3
2.3
2.6
2.5
2.7
2.9

3-95

4-95

3.2
2.0
2.1
2.0
2.4
2.1
2.1
2.5
2.5
2.7

0.8
1.6
1.6
2J2
1.9
2.0
2.4
2.4
2.6

2.4
2.0
2.6
2.2
2.2
2.6
2.6
2.9

1.6

2.9

2.8

3,1

2.8
2.1
2.2
2.7
2.6
2.9
3,2

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

4.0
2.4
2.4
3.0
2.8
3.2
3.4

0.8
1.6
2.6
2.6
3.0

2.4
3.6
3.2
3.6

3.3

3.8

4.8
3.6
4.0
4.1

2.4
3.5
3.9

4.7
4.7

4.7

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

153.7
153.8
154.1
154.7
155.0
155.6
156.2

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 31, 1996

Producer Price Index - Finished Goods
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent
8

8

Less Food and Energy

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Producer Price Index - Finished Goods
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94

10-94

-4.7

11-94

1.4

7.9

12-94

2.9

6.9

5.9

1-95

2.6

5.2

3.9

1.9

2-95

2.5

3.2

1.9

3-95

2.2

4.4
3.7

2.6

4-95

2.3

3.5

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

1982=100

7-95

8-95

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

125.4
126.2
126.8
127.0

1.6

1.9
1.4

0.9

2.7

1.9

1.9

1.9

2.9

2.2
1.2

2.9

2.9
0.5

-1.9

0.9

1.3
0.9

0.3

-0.9

0.0

0.9
1.4

0,9
1.4

0.5

-0.3

03

1.1

0.7

1.6

2.4

3.8

1.5

1.3

0.9

1,7

2.9

127,2

5-95

2.4

3.4

2.7

2.1

2.1

6-95
7-95

1.9
1.7

2.8

2.0
1.8

1.4

1.3

8-95

2.3
2.4

1.7

1.2
12

1.1
1.1

1.9

1.5

1.4

2.4

1.9

1.5

1.4

2.5

127.3
127.6
127.9
127.7
127.7

11-95

1,6
1.8
1.8
2.0

2.5

2.1

1.7

1.5
1.7

1.7

1.8

1.6

1.4

2.1

2.2
2.6

3.2

2.8

3.8

12-95

2.3

2.9

2.5

2.2

2.2

2,3

2.4

2.4

2.3

3.0

3.6

4.3

4.4

5.7

7.7

1-96

2.4

2.9

2.5

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.5

2.4

2.4

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.0

4.8

5.2

2.8

2-96

2.1

2.2

2.0

2,0

2.0

2.1

2.0

1.9

2.4

2.7

3.0

2.8

3.1

2.8

0.5

3-96

2.4

2.6
2.8

2.5

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.8

3.2

3.5

3.5

3.8

3.8

2.5

2.3

6.7

2.9

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.6

3.0

3.4

3.7

3.6

3.9

4.0

3.0

3.1

5,7

4.7

9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

9-95
10-95

4-96

2.5




8

0.9

127.8
128.2
1.9

128.4
128.8
129.6
129.9
-1.8

129.7
130.4
130.9

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 31, 1996

Employment Cost Index and Its Components
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent
9

-3

Compensation is the sum of wages, salaries and benefits for private industry workers.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Employment Cost Index - Total Compensation
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

June 1989=100

Initial Quarter
2-91

3-91

3*91
4-91

4.4
4.1

3.7

1-92

4.0

2-92
3-92
4-92

3.6

1-93

3.7

2-93

3.7

3-93
4-93
1-94

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

'i Q
/l
O
57H

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95
110.9
111.9

4.0

3.6

3.8
3.4

113.0

3.2

2.5

3.6

3.4

3.4

3.0

3,6

3.4

3.4

3.2

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.8

3.9

4.2

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.7

3.7

3.8

3.5

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.7

3.5

3.4

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.6

3.5

35
3.4

3.4

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.3

3.3

32

113.7
114,7
115.7
116.9
117.9
118.9
119.9

120.8
121.8
122.8

2-94

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.0
3.2

3-94

3.5

3,4

3,4

3.5

3.5

3.5

3,3

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.3

4-94

3.4

3.5
3.4

3.3

3.3

3.4

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.1<‘

3.1

3.0

3.0

2.8

23

1-95

3.4

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.1

3.1

3.0

3.0

2.9

2.6

2-95

3.4

3.3

3.3

3.3
3.2

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.1

3.1

3.0

3.0

3.0

2.9

2.7

2.9

2.9

3-95

3.3

3.3

3.2

32

3.2

3.2

3.1

3.0

3.0

2.9

2.8

28

2.7

2.8

2.8

3.4
3.3

123.5
2.9

124,4
125.3

2.6

4-95

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2
3.2

3.2

3.1

3.1

3.0

3.0

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.9

3.2

3.3

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

3*2

3.1

3.0

3.0

2.9

2,9

2.9

2.8
2,8

2.9

1-96

2.9

2.9

2.9

3.0

2.9

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

Data are for the last month of quarter.




126.1
127.1
128.0

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 31, 1996

Business Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

Prepared by Federal Resen/e Bank of St. Louis

Business Sector - Output Per Hour
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
1.QR
I yo

2-91

3-91

1.7
1.7
3.7
3.4
2.6
3.1
2.1
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.4
1.4

1.7
4.8
4.0
2.8
3.4
2.2
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.3
1.4

1.5
1.4
1,2
1.3
1.4
1.2
1••V
a

1.5
1.4
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.2
11.G
& I

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

Initial Quarter
2-93 3-93 4-93

1992=100
1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95
97.0
97.4

1

8.0
5.2
3.2
3.8
2.3
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.3
1.3
1.5
1.4
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.2
1

2.4
0.8
2.4
0.9
0.4
0.5
0.9
0.5
0.6
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.8
0.9
0.7
09

4-91

1-92




-0.8
2.4
0.4
-0.1

0.2
0.4
0.7
0.6
0.4
0.7
0.7
0.6
OA

5.7
1.0
0.1
0.4
0.9
0.4
0.6
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.8
0.9
0.7
0
0
U.»

2-92

3-92

0.2
0.6

-3.5
-2.6
-1.3
-0.3

-1.6
-0.2
0.8

-0.6
-0.3
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.3
0.4
0.3
ft*»

0.1
0.4
0.8
0.7
0.4
0.8
0.8
0.7
ft
O
o.y

1.2
2.0
0.7
0.9
1.3
1.1
0.7
1.0
1.1
0.9
11

4-92

1-93

2-93

2.8
0.4 *2.0
0.8 -0.2
1.3
0.8
1.1
0.7
0.7
0.2
0.7
1.0
1.1
0.9
0.6
1 1 1KfAf
ft Q,
3-93

4-93

10

1.6
2.2
1.6
0.8
1.3
1.0
< -ife
1-94

2.8
1.6

99.3
99.9
99.7
101.1
100.2
99.8
100.1
100.8

0.5
12

0.4
-0.6
0.7

0.9

0.9
0.6

2-94

100.3
100.7
101.4
101.5
-1.6
0.8

101.1
101.9

3.2

0.6
i.U

1.3

0.4

-0.8

n
a
u.y
3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

102.1
4-95

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 31,1996

Industrial Production
Seasonally Adjusted

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Industrial Production
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
10*94
11-94
12-94
1-95
2*95
3-95
4-95
5-95
6-95
7-95
8*95
9-95
10-95
11-95
12*95
1-96
2-96
3-96
4*96

9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94
8.7
7.6
6.6
8.4
7.1
5.4
4.8
3.4
2.9
2.7
2.5
3.3
3.2
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.2
2.9
2.4
2.9

8.2
6.6
4.6
4.0
2.5
2.1
1.9
1.8
2.8
2.7
1.9
2.1
2.1
1.7

9.9
6.6
4.0
3.4

2.5
2.0
2.5

2.3
1.8
2.3

1.7
1.3
1.3
1.2
2.4
2.3
1.5
1.7
1.7
1.4

3.3
1.2
1.3
-0.2
-0.3
-0.1
0.0

iS
1.5
0,7
1.0
1.1
0.8
1.7
1.2
1.9

9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94



1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

Initial Month
5-95 6-95 7-95

1987=100
8-95

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

*

-0,9
0.4
-1.4
-1.2
•0.8
-0.5
1.2
1.2

1.7
-1.6
-1.2
-0.7
-0.4
1.6
1.6

«4.8
-2.7
*1.5
-0.9

-0.5
0.2
0.4
3.3
2.9
1.3
1.7
1.8
1.2

1.6
2.1
2.1
1.5

0.7
6.4
4.6
1.8
2.3
2.3
1.5

0.9
0.8
4.5
3.7

0.4
0.8
0,9
0.6

0.5
1.0
1,1
0.7

16
1.5
0.4
0.9
1.0
0.6

1.1
1.8

1.8
1.2
2.0

1.2
2.0

1.8
2.6

2.0
2.9

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

12.3
6.7

119.894
120.534
121.484
121.816
121.720
121.888
121.388
121.339
121.434
121.507
122.690
122.821

2.2
2.7
2.6
1.7

1.3
-2.6
-0.3
0,3
-0.3

-6.3
-1.1
-0.0
-0.7

2.1
3.0

2.3
3.3

0.9
. 2,2

0.9
2.4

6-95

7-95

8-95

4.3
3.2
1.2

122.159
122.587
2.2
-0.4

-2.8
5.7
1.8
4.2

14.9
4.2
6.7

-5.5
2.7

11.8

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

2.4
3.9

1.9
3.8

122.809
122.515
123.945
123.358
124.506

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 31,1996

Civilian Employment and Unemployment Rate
Seasonally Adjusted

Millions of Persons

Percent

* Break in series. January 1994 figures reflect revised data collection procedures and are not directly
comparable with previous data.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Civilian Employment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Thousands
Initial Month
9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94

10-94

4.3
3.7

3.2

12-94

3,1

2.5

1.7

1-95

2.5

1.9

1.2

0.7

2-95

2.4

1.9

1.5

1.4

3-95

2.4

2.0

1.7

1.7

4-95

1.4

1.1

0.9

0.8

0.6

0.9
0.7

0.7

11-95

1.8
1.1
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.0

0.5

12-95

0.9

0.6

0.4

1-96

1.0
1.1

0.7

0.6
0.8
1.0
1.0

11-94

5-95
6-95
7-95
8-95
9-95
10-95

2-96

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

8-95

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

124,671
•. '

0.7

0.3

0.0

0.2

-0.0

0.5

0.3

0.3

-0.1

-0.7

-0.5

-0.0

-0.3

0.5

0.3
0.4

-0.5

0.2

-0.1

0.1

0.6

0.6

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.2
0.1

0.1
0.0

0.5

0.3
0.4

0.3

0.2
-0.1
-0.1
0.1

1.1
0.8
1.1
1.2

0.7

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.7

0.5

0.3

124,881

2.2
0.4

125,106
-1.3

124,973

-0.9

-2.4

-3.5

-0.8

-1.7

-1.9

-0.3

124,598

1

............................

2.6
0.3

124,859

1.5

1.0

1.7

1.3

1.9

0.7

1*6
1.0

0.6

0.7

0.5

0.7

0.3

0.8
1.1

0.9

125,036

0.3

2,0
0.1
-0.2

-1.3

-0.8

0.7

0.5

-0.1

0.8

2.4

1.3

1.0

1.9

3.3

4.3

1.7

2.6
2.0

3.8

4.5

4.8

1.4

2.7

2.8

2.1

-0.5

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

1.0

1.0

0.9

0.8

1.0

1.5

1.7

1.8

0.9

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.9

1.3

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.5

9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

1.3
12




0.3

124,666

i

124,832

1.4

1.2
1.8

3-96

3-96
124,086

0.6
1.1
1.6

4-96

2-96

124,595

0.6
0.8

1.0
1.2
1.1

1-96

124,417

2.0
2.1
1.0
-0.2
•0.2

0.7

of Persons

6-95 . 7-95
•

1.3

12

125,244
-1.7

125,062
124,981

Í:

125,226
125,663
126,151
126,095

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 3 1 ,1 9 9 6

Payroll Employment
Seasonally Adjusted
Millions

Millions

—

r

i

—

1—

1990

I—

I—

'—

I—

'—

1991

I—

■—

I—

1992

■—

I—

■—

I—

<—

1993

I—

<—

I—

■—

1994

I—

«—

I—

1995

<—

I—

1996

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Payroll Employment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94
10-94
11-94
12-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
5-95
6-95
7-95
8-95
9-95
10-95
11-95
12-95
1-96
2-96
3-96
4-96

1.8
3.5
3.0
2.8
2.9
2.7

1-95

21
2.0
2.4
2.3
18
1.4
17
15

1.9
2.6
2.4
1.8
1.3
1.6
1.4

2.0
1.9
1.8
18
1.8
1.6
19
1.9
1.8

16
16
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.3
1.7
1.7
1.6

1.6
1.5
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.3
1.6
1.7
1.6

3.3
2.6
1.7
1.1
1.5
1.3
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.2
1.6
1.6
1.5

9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94

1-95

1.9
2.0
19
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.6
1.9
1.9
1.8

3-95

4-95

Initial Month
5-95 6-95 7-95

Thousands
8-95

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

114,935
115,427

5.3
3.7
3.1
3.1
2.9
2.4
2.0
2.1
19

2.3
1.9
2.1

2-95




1.9
1.0
0.4

0.1
-0.3

1.1
0.9
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.3
1.3
1.0
1.5
1.5
1.4

0.8
0.7
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.2

2-95

3-95

12
0.9
1.4
1.5
1.4

-0.6
1.2
0.9
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.0

3.1
1.7

1.6
1.6
1.5

2.0
1.8
1.6
1.7
1.6
1.2
1.8
1.8
1.7

4-95

5-95

0.3
1.5
1.3

12

2.7
1.9
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.1

115,624
115,810
116,123
116,302
116,310
116,248
116,547
116,575
116,838
116,932

1.0

1.9
1.9

0.8
1.3
1.3
0.8
1.7
1.7

0.7
1.4
1.5
0.7
1.9
1.9

15

1.7

1.5

1.6

6-95

7-95

8-95

1.4
1.4
1.0
1.7
1.7

2.2
1.8
0.7
2.2
2.1

1.S
-0.0
2.2
2.1
1.7

-1.5

1.7

6.7
4.2
2.8

1.8
0.9

0.0

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

1.8

2.5
2.3

117,000
117,212
117,357
117,211
117,842
118,020
118,022

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 31,1996

Real Personal Income
Seasonally Adjusted
Trillions of Dollars

Trillions of Dollars

1990

1991

1992

1994

1993

1995

1996

Real incomes are expressed in chained 1992 dollars.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Disposable Personal Income
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
10-94
11-94
12-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
5-95
6-95
7-95
8-95
9-95
10-95
11-95
12-95
1-96
2-96
3-96
4-96

9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94
7.7
3.7 -0.2
4,8
3.3
7.0
4.9
4.0
6.2
5.5
4.1
3.2
4.4
3.1
3.6
2.8
3.6
2.5
1.9
10
1.2 «0.2
2.7
2.0
2.3
1.4
2.9
3.0
2.5
2.2
2.9
3.3
2.7
3.3
2.4
2.7
2.1
2.8
2.7
3.0
3.1
2.6
3,1
2.8
3.0
2,7
3.2
2.9
3.1
2.8
3.4
3.1
3.4
3.1
3.0
2.7
3.0
2.7
3.2
2.9
2.9
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.8
3.1
2.2
1.9
2.4
2.1

1-95

9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94



2-95

3-95

4-95

Initial Month
5-95 6-95 7-95

8-95 9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95
* 4,843.5

1-96

2-96

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
3-96
4,842.6
4,870.0
4,891.6
4,894,8

0.8
1.0
-2.0
0.4
1.5
2.3
1.7
2.2
2.3
2.5
2.9
2.4
2.7
2.6

1.3
-3.4
0.3
1.7
2.6
1.8
2.5
2.5
2.7
3.1
2.6
2.9
2.7

1.7

1.8

1.8

8.3
7.1
6.8
4.5
4.9
4,6
4.5
4.8
4.0
4.2
3.9
2.7

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

-7.9
-0.2
1.9
2.9
1.9
2.7
2.7
2.9
3.3
2.7
3.0
2.9

6.0
6.1

4,900.1
4,866.5
4,898.8
4,922.8
4,947.0

6.1

3.3
4.1
3.9
3.9
4.3
3.4
37
3.5
2.2

2.0
3.4

-1.9
2.2

3.4
3.5
4.0
3.1
3.4
3.2
1.8

2.5
2.9
3.6
2.6
3.1
2.8

5-95

6-95

1.3
7-95

14

4,939.0
4,964.7
4,977.4
4,993.7

6.4
4.8
4.5
5.0
3.5
3.9
3.5
1.8
8-95

3,1
3.6
4.5
2.8
3.4
3.1
1.1

4.0
5.2
2.6

6.5
2.0
3.3
2.8
0.2

-2.4
1.8
1.6
-1.4

6.1
3.6
-1.0

1.2
-4,4

-9.8

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

3.5
3.0
0.8

5,020.0
5,010.0
5,034.8
5,040.0
4,997.0

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 31,1996

Retail Sales
Seasonally Adjusted
Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

The CPI is used to deflate retail sales data (1982-84 = 100).
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Retail Sales
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
10-94
11-94
12-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
5-95
6-95
7-95
8*95
9-95
10-95
11-95
12-95
1-96
2-96
3-96
4-96

9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95
16.4
6.7 -2.1
3.7 -2.2 -2.2
5.3
1.8
3.9 10.3
-2.4 -2.5 -2.7 -14.2
11
0.3 -4.3
2.0 -0.7 -0.3
-4.6
0.9 -1.5 -1.3 -1.1
1.5 -0.6
0.4
0.8
2.3
2.1
1.5
0.5
2.6
1.0
0.7
1.1 -0.3
1.9
0.4
1.7
2*2
1.2
0.9
0.5
1.2
0.2
1.8
0.9
0.6
0.4 -0.6
0.0
0.2
1.2
0.4
1.3
1.8
1.0
0.8
0.8
1.6
2.0
1.0
1.3
0.4
1.1
0.7
1.6
0.9
2.2
2.7
2.4
2.9
2.1
2.7
2.1
2.4
2.1
2.8
1.4
2.0
1.7
2.2
1.5

2-95

3.1
2.4
1.2
2.2
2.5
1.8
3.7
3.5
2.7

9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94

2-95

1-95

4-95

8-95

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

Billions of
1982-84
Dollars
127.643

127.413
127.177
128.218
126.597
6.7
0.5
4.3
4.6
2.7

Retail Sales are deflated using the CPI (1982-84=100).




3-95

Initial Month
5-95 6-95 7-95

-5.3
3.2
3.9
1.7

12.4
8.8
4.2

5.3
0.3

127.280
126.704
127.943
128.493
128.006

2.0
1.0
-0.6
1.2

-4.5
0.4
-0.4

5.4
1.7

-2.0

-2.0
0.4

-1.1
1.6

-4.2
0.3

1.1
0.3
32
3.1
1.9

2.3
1.1

4.3
4.1
3.0

1.7
0.9
3.4
3.3
2.2

4.3
4.0
2.6

1.5
0.3
4.2
3.8
2.3

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

2.5
1.7
0.5
1.7

4.5
3.2

2.0
1.4

3.0
2.1

3.4
3.3
2.3
3-95

1.5
2.7

—

15

-6.4
1.5
2.7
0.8
5.4
4.8
2.9

128.573
128.358
127.647
128.683

10.2
7.5
3.4

5.0
0.2

.,..'
-4.4

8.6
7.2

8.1
6.5
3.5

9.7
7.0
3.1

26.0
13.3
5.7

1.9
-3.1

-7.9

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

4.6

129.204
128.719
131.221
131.422
130.523

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 31,1996

Total Business Inventory/Sales Ratio
Seasonally Adjusted
Ratio

Ratio

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Inventories and Sales
(Billions of Dollars)

Manufacturing
Shipments (1) Inventories (2)

1993
1994
1995
1995
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1996
January
February
March

Retail Trade

Total Business (3)

Sales (1)

Inventories (2)

Sales (1)

Inventories (2)

3100.14

377.43

2072.55

267.92

7113.29

861.22

3364.60

391.81

2227.76

290.60

7669.76

917.31

3598.69

418.53

2341.89

302.88

8193.66

976.02

298.44

402.08

192.57

297.39

674.84

942.64

295.29

405.68

192.34

299.41

672.91

951.34

297.09

408.29

194.73

300.38

678.68

955.68

298.71

410.01

196.08

300.52

683.08

959.45

293.47

412.42

195.47

299.04

676.09

963.36

303.02

413.15

196.72

302.70

687.69

968.06

304.28

416.18

196.64

303.30

689.80

972.59

302.40

417.44

196.19

306.22

688.23

978.40

303.73

417.59

197.91

307.27

693.21

979.58

305.91

418.53

199.10

302.88

699.91

976.02

301.42

421.32

199.13

304.37

693.42

981.95

303.81

422.20

203.39

304.82

701.26

982.60

304.11

422.36

204.49

302.89

703.50

980.54

1. Annual data are sums of monthly shipments/sales.
2. Annual data are end-of-year stocks.
3. Total business is the sum of manufacturing, retail trade and merchant wholesalers.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

16

Real Final Sales and Real GDP
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Real final sales and real GDP are chain-w eight quantity indexes scaled to 1992 dollars.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Final Sales of Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
1-96

2-91
-0.7
-0.4
1.8
18
2.0
2.4

3-91

4-91

2.2
2.4
2.5
2.3
2.3
24
2.3
2.4

-0.1
3.0
2.6
2.7
3.1
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.6
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.6
2.5
2.6

3.6
3.9
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.9
2.7
2.7
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7

2-91

3-91

4-91

2.0
1.9
2.0
2.2

22

6,2
4.0

1-92

1.8
2.4
3.1
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.5
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.5
2.4

2-92

3-92

1-93

23
2.4

2*6
2.7

2.6
2.7
2.5
2.4

2.5

2.5
2.5
2.6
2.5
2.6

1-92

2-92

4.6
1.9
1.8
1.9
2.5

•0.8
0.3
1.0
2.0

1.5
1.9
2.9
2.5
2.5
2.8
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.6

2.5
2.4
2.5

1.8
2.0
2.3
2.5
2.3
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.4

2.6

2.3
3.6
2.8
2.8
3.1
3.2
2.8
2.7
2.8
2.7
2.7

3-94

2-94

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

•>

4.9
3.0
3.0
3.3
3.3
2.9
2.7
2.8
2.7
2.8

1.2
2.0
2.8
3.0
2.5
2.4
2.5
2.4
2.6

2.8
3.5
3.5
2.8
2.6
2.8
2.6
2.7

3-93

4-93

1-94

First quarter data are preliminary estimates.




1-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
4-95
6,085.4
6,083.8
6,175.8
6,203.8

3.0
3.8
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.6
2.4
2.4

2.5
2.4

4-92

Initial Quarter
2-93 3-93 4-93

17

6,249.5
6,320.7
6,307.7
6,331.6
6,368.2
6,444.1
6,464.0
6,509.0
6,576.8
6,635.2

!

42
3.9
2.8
2.6
2.7
2.6
2.7

3.6
2.2
2.0
2.4
2.2
2.5

2-94

3-94

0.7
1.3

6,647.5
6,677.4

2.0
1.9
2.2

1.8
2.6
2.3
2.6

3.4
2.5
2.9

1.6
2.6

3.7

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

6,733.3
6,760.5
6,821.7

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 31,1996

Components of Real GDP Growth Rate (1)
4th

1995
3rd

2nd

2.32

0.49

3.56

0.47

0.62

3.66

1.62

3.37

1.80

-1.30

-0.98

0.16

2.44

0.81

Fixed Investment

1.51

N onresidential

1.26

Residential

1996
1st
Real GDP
Final Sales
Change in Business
Inventories
Personal Consumption
Expenditures

Government Expenditures
Federal
State and Local

Net Exports

1994
3rd

2nd

3.16

3.57

4.81

0.74

3.57

4.18

2.80

-1.42

-0.17

-0.40

-0.61

2.11

1.90

2.28

0.52

2.22

1.72

2.41

0.57

0.89

-0.21

1.19

1.14

1.18

1.17

0.33

0.54

0.37

1.48

1.17

1.28

0.67

0.25

0.24

0.34

-0.55

-0.26

0.00

-0.08

0.49

0.48

-0.78

-0.13

0.17

-0.22

-0.26

1.30

-0.16

0.56

-0.94

-0.43

-0.08

-0.47

-0.45

0.81

-0.40

-0.08

0.17

0.31

0.24

0.27

0.18

0.48

0.25

-0.82

1.05

0.75

-0.46

-0.79

0.45

-0.07

-0.67

1st

4th

Exports

0.56

1.23

0.89

0.51

0.29

1.59

1.25

1.48

Im ports

-1.38

-0.18

-0.13

-0.97

-1.08

-1.12

-1.31

-2.12

Residual (2)

0.04

-0.19

-0.04

0.12

0.05

-0.02

0.02

-0.10

(1) Contribution of each component to the compound annual rate of real GDP growth in each quarter indicated.
Elements may not sum to the total due to rounding.
(2) Residual line is calculated using the finest level of detail shown in the table.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1*94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
1-96

Billions of Chained
2-91
0.9
-0.0
2,1
2.1
2.3
2.8
2.5
2.5
2.7

2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.7
2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

Initial Quarter
2-93 3-93 4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1992 Dollars
Annual Rates

4,119.5
-1.0
2.7
2.5
2.6
3.1
2.7
2.7
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.8
3-91

6.4
4.3
3.8
4.2
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.4

2.2
2.9
4.1

2.9
3.0

2.6
3.5
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.9
29
3.0
2.9
3.0
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.7

3.1
3.1
3.0
3.1
3.0
3.0
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.7

2.8

4-91

1-92

3.3
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.1

3.1

First quarter data are preliminary estimates.




4,109.1
4,173.8
4,196.4
4,226,7

3.0
2.9

5.4

4,282.3
0.7
17
2.4
2.5

2.8

3.0
2.9
3.1
3.1
3.0
31
3.0
3.0
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.7
2.8

2.5
27
2.7
2.8
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.6

2-92

3-92

4-92

2.7
3.3
3.1
3.0
3.1
3.0
3.1
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.7

3.8
3.3

2.8

3.1
3.2
3.1
3.1
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.8

1-93

2-93

2.8
2.7
3.0

4,290.0
4,319.0
4,359.7
4,390.0
2.7
31

3.6

2J

2.9
3.0
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.5
2.6

2.5
31
31
2.9
2,5 Ü Ü
27
2.5
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.3
2.6
2J5

3-93

4-93

2.9
3.0
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.6

1-94

2-94

3.3
2.0
2.5

0.8
2.1

4,418.8
4,457.7
4,485.8
4,522.3
4,530.9
4,568.8

3.4

2.6
2.3

2.0

2.5

2.5
3-94

2.3
4-94

23
1-95

2.0
2-95

4,614.1

1.2
2-4

3.6

3-95

4-95

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 31,1996

4,655.1

Real Residential Fixed Investment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-91
16.4
15.5
18.5
19.4

3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94

16.0
16.5
14.3
11.7
11.8
130
13.0
130
11.8
10.9
9.6
8.0
8.1
8.0

3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
1-98

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

Initial Quarter
2-93 3-93 4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
4-95
Annual Rates

:

14.6
19.6
20.5
15.9
165
13.9
11.0
11.3
127
12.7
12.7

24.7
23.5
16.3
16.9
13.8
10.4
10.8
124
12 5
125

11.4
105
9.2
75
7.6
75

11.1
10.1
8.8
7.0
7.2
7.1

12.3
145
11.2
7.7
8.6
108
11 0
11 2
9.8
8.9
7.5
58
6.0
6.0

71

À i

3.2
10.8
7.8
4.4
6.1
9.0
9.5
99
8.5
7.6
6.3
4.5
4.8
5.0
5.1

4-91

1-92

2-92

7$

7JS

2-91

3-91

195.6
202.4

»H l

"

/v

"

'

213,9
224.9
-226.7
236.7

22 2
'
18.8
10.1
4.8
6.8
101
10.6
109
9.2
8.1
6.6
4.6
5.0
5.1
5.2
3-92

2.0
-1.6

•.

1-93

:
!......... ....... -... >'<.. -....i

11
-5.1

3.1
8.1 10.2
9.0 10.8
96 11.2
7.9
8.9
6.9
76
5.3 ¡1 1 1
3.4
3.3
4.0
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.2
4.4
4-92

^

m
187
16.7
157
11.9
98
7.4
4.5
5.0
5.2
2-93

"
234.8
242.2
255.8
263.6
271.6
270.3
270.3

:
24.4
18.5
165
11.6
9.2
6.4
3.4
4.1
4.3
3-93

12.8
12.7
7.6
5.7

127

5J

3.1
0.2
1.4
2.1
S* £

0.9
-2.1
*0.3
0.6

-1.9
-1.0
-2.8
-5.5
»2.7
-1.3

4-93

1-94

2-94

3.4

0.0
-3.2
-6.7
-3.0
-1.2

-6.4
-9.9 -13.3
-3.9 -2.7
-1.4
0.3

3-94

4-94

First quarter data are preliminary estimates.

1-95

y i l i
9.2
7.8
2-95

6.4
6.6
3-95

,

„ . 265.9
256.6
<<
* - 262.3
266.4
&8 ,
270.7
4-95

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of

St. Louis

M a y 3 1 ,1 9 9 6

Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Billions of Chained
Initial Quarter
2-93 3-93 4-93

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3.2

4.2

5.7

6.1

4-94

4.7
4.9
5.1
5.7
6.2

5.7
5.9
6.0
6.6
7.0

7.0
7.0
7.0
7.6
8.0

7.5
7.5
7.4
8.0
8.4

6.2
5.8
8.1
7.9
7.8
8.5
8.9

6.2
5.7
8.5
8.3
8.1
8.9
9.3

6.3

4-93

5.2
5.1
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.8
8.3

1-95
2-95

~ 6.8
6.6

7.6
7.3

8.6
8.2

9.0
8.5

8.9
8.4

9.6___9.9" 10.4 T l, 0
9.0
9.3
9.7 10.1

10.9

7.2

8.0

8.3

8.2

8.7

9.5

10.2

6.9

7.7

8.0

7.8

T-2

7-9 ■■

2-94

4-95

6.3
2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

9.4
8.8
8.5
9.4
9.8

8.9

9.2

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

1992 Dollars
Annual Rates

4-95

586.4
10.9
9.7
9.1
10.0
10.3

17.6
12.3
10.6
11.3
11.5

617.6
7.3
7.2
9.3
10.1
9.8

7.1
10.4
11.0
10.3

639.5
13.7
13.0

____
12.2

11.1

10.3

679.7
^ .3
9.3

"
3.6

8.2

8.4

8.6

8.9

9.4

8.4

8.5

8.8

7.8

6.7

4.0

4.2

3.1

... 8.5

8.7

8.9

9.2

9.6

9.8

9.0

9.3

8.5

7.8

...

...

.

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

First quarter data are preliminary estimates.




1-94

19

~~.. ~~704A
710.6
725.3

4-95

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 31,1996

Real Government Consumption Expenditures & Gross Investment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92

2-91
-2.7
-2.1
-0*6
-0.5
0.2
0.5

3-91

4-91

1-92

-1.4
0.5
0.3
0.9
1.1

2.5
1.1
1.7
1.7

-0.2
-0.1
0.1
-0.3
-0.4
0.1
*0.0
0.0
*0.0
-0.2
-0.1

0.1
0.2
0.4
*0.1
-0.2
0.4
0.3
0,2
0.2
0.2
-0.1
0.1

0.4
0.5
0.6
0,1
-0.0
00
0.4
0,3
0.3
0.3
-0.0
0.1

-0.0
0.1
0.3
*0*2
-0.3
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
-0.2

2-91

3-91

4-91

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

Initial Quarter
2-93 3-93 4-93

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

Annual Rates
1255.1
1250.7
1258.5
1257.5
-i1¿00*0
C
1272.5
1257.2
1257.9
1261.1
1265.7
1252.3
1249.7
1271.0
1266.6
1263.0
1265.8
1263.6
1250.4
1258.6

X y i- \

;’•
-0.3
1.3
1.5

2.9
2.4

1.9

0.0

0.0
0.2
0.4
*0.2
-0.3
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
-0.2
0.0

-0.9
-0.4
-0.1
*0.7
-0.8
0.2
0.0
-0.1
-0.0
-0.1
-0.4
-0.2

1-92

2-92

3-92

-

'

'

2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
1-96

3-94

2-94

1-94

02

-2.3
-0.5
*1.3
-1.2
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.2
-0.3
-0.6
-0.3

0.2
0.6
0.9
-0.4
-0.5
0.7
0.4
0.2
0.3
0.2
-0.2
0.0

1.0
1.2
*0.6
-0.7
0.8
0.5
0.2
0.3
0.2
-0.2
0.0

15
-1.4
-1.2
0.8
03
0.1
02
0.1
-0.4
-0.1

*4.2
-2 5
0.6
0.1
-0.2
0.0
-0.1
-0.6
-0.2

-0.8
3.0
1.5
0.9
09
06
-0.1
0.3

7.0
2.7
1.4
13
0.9
0.0
0.4

-1.4
-1.3
-0.5
-0.6
-1.3
-0.7

-1,1
-0.1
-0.3
-1.3
-0.5

0.9
01
-1.3
-0.3

-0.7
-2.4
-0.8

-4.1
-0.8

2.6

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

-Ì.2

*' '

First quarter data are preliminary estimates.

Prepared by Federal Resen/e Bank of St. Louis
May 31, 1996

Real Federal Consumption Expenditures & Gross Investment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91
4-91
1*92
2 92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
1-96

2-91
-7.7
-7 2
*5*3
-4.4

3-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
4-95

536.3
-6.8
-4.1
-3.2

*2,6 Ü Ü S
-1.6 -0.3
-3.3 -2.6
-3.5 -2.9
-3.5 -2,9
-3.2 -2.7
-3.9 -3.6
-4.0 -3.7
-2,9 -2.5
-3.2 -2.8
*3.4
-3.2 -2.9
-3.4 -3.1
-3.9 -3.7
-3.3 -3.1
2-91

4-91

Initial Quarter
2-93 3-93 4-93

3-91

526.9
*1.4
-1.4

0,7
1.7
2.3
1.3
-1.7 ¡ l i l i !
-2.3 -2.4
-2,4 -2.5
-2.1
-2.3
-3.2 -3*4
-3.4 -3 6
-21
-2.5
-2.6
-2.9
-3.5
»2 A
4-91

525.1
523.3

-1.4

-22
-2.5
-2*0
-2.7
*3.0
-3.6
1-92

4.9
4.1
-1.9
-2.7
-2.7
-2.4
-3.7
-3 9
-2.3
-2.7
-3.0
-2.8
-3.1
-3.8
-3 0

-5.2 ♦13.0
-5.1 -9.1 -4.9
-4.6 -7.1 -4,0
-3.8 -5.5 -2.9
-51 « c r i -5.0
-5.1 -6.4 -5.1
*3.2 *4*1 -2 5
-3.5 -4.3 -3.0
-3.8 •4.5 -3.4
-3.5 -4.2 -3 1
-3.7 -4.3 -3.4
-4.4 -5.1 -4.3
-3.6 *4.1 -3.3

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

-3.0
-1.8
-5.0
-5.1
-2.0
-2.6
•32
-2.9
-3.3
-4.3
-3.2

-0.7
-6.1 -112
-5.8 -8.2
*1.7 -2.1
-2.6 -3.1
-3*2 -3.7
-2.9 -3.3
-3.3 -3.7
-4.4 -4.8
-32 -3.4

2-93

3-93

4-93

-5.2
2.8
-0.2
-17
-1.6
-2.3
-3.9
-2.4

11*5
2.4
-0.6
-0.7
-1,8
-3.7
-2.0

-5.9
-6.1
-4.5
-4.8
-6.5
•4.1

-6,2
-3.7
-4.4
-6.6
-3.8

-1.2
-3.5
-6.7
-3.1

-5,9
-9.4 -12.8
-3.8 -2.7

8.5

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

496.6
489.1
481.3
479.9
472,7
456.8
466.2

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 31,1996

First quarter data are preliminary estimates.




529.6
534.0
515.7
509.2
505.4
504.5
489.8
483.3

3.4

20

Real Exports
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)

2-91
3-91
4-91
1*92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
1-96

3-91

4-91

1-92

m i
7.9
73
5.9

13.9
10.0
7.2

&2
5.3
4.6
5.0

6.0
6.0
5.0
5.4

3,5
5.2
4.7
5.5
6.0
6.6

3.7
55

6.3
6.2

4.9
5.8
6.3
7.0

2-92 3-92
|É ||||i .
;?'!l l i i i l i

SJZ
4.0
3.5
4.1
3.4
4.1
8.3
4.5
4.0
5.0
5.6
6.4
6.1
6.0
6.1
6.4

1.8
2.1
3.4
2.7
3.7
1.7
43
3.7
49

2.5
4.2

6.4

4.0
5.2
6.0
6.9

6.0
3.2
4.7
1.4
5.2
4.2
57
6.4
7.4

6.1
6.0
6.1
6.4

6.5
6.3
6.5
6.8

6.9
6.7
6.8
7.1

$J&

2-9
4.2
1.6
4.7

4-92

-

0.4
4.1
“0.0
5.0
&8
5.6
6.5
7.6

Initial Quarter
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93
:
B ■

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

*1

Iflpsil

7.9
*03
65
4.7
67

5.9
3.7
63

7.6
8.6

7.5
8.7
7.8
7.4
7.5
7.8
7.6
2-93

6.3
6.6
6.5

6.6
6.5
6.6
6.8
6.7

6.3

63

6.6

7.0

7.0

7.8
7.5
7.5
7.8
7.8

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

6.8
6.9
7.2

1-94 2-94
^ 'Y j

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
4-95
603.6
623.5
633,0
635.8
639.7
649.1
649.8
662.3
648.9
681.4
680.4
704.3
724.8
751.0
755.8
764.3

s

Terminal
Quarter

21.6
9.9
11.5
11.7
12.4

-0.6
6.8
8.6
10.2

14.8
13,5
14.1

12,2
13.7

10.7
9.8
9.6
9.7

8.6
8.0
8.0
83
7.9

11.1
9.7
9.S
9.7
9.1

9-9
8.5
8.4
8.8
8.3

4-93

1-94

2-94

&2
3-93

First quarter data are preliminary estimates.

15.3
8.7
7.3
7.5
8.2
7.6

2.6
3.6
5.0
6.5
6.2

4.6
6.3
7.8
7.1

8.0
9.5
7.9

11.1
7.9

4.8

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

779.1
799.8
809.3

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 31, 1996

Real Imports
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Billions of Chained
2-91

3-91

3-91
4-91

10.8
7.9

5.1

1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92

6.6
8.2

4.6
7.4

4.1
8.6

6.8
7.6
7.9
8.7
8.3
9.1
9.0
9.8
9.9
9.8
9.7
9.6
9.1
8.6

5.9
7.0
7.4
8.4
7.9
8.9
8.8
9.7
9.8
9.7
9.7
9.5
9.0
8.5

6.1
7.4

1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95

2-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1992 Dollars
Annual Rates

633.4

3-91

7.9
8.9
8.4
9.4
9.2
10.1
10.2
10.1
10.0
9.9
9.2
8.7
4-91

641.4
647.8
668.3

13.3
7.1
8.6
8.8
10.0
9.1
10.2
9.8
10.8
10.9
10.7
10.5
10.3
9.6
9.0
Q4

13
6.3 11.6
7.4 10.6
9.1 11.9
8.3 10.1
9.7 11.4
9.4 10.8
10.5 11.9
10.6 11.8
10.4 11.5
10.3 11.2
10.1 10.9
9.3 10.0
8.8
9.3
DO
w
o,V . . o
»,9

10.6
12.0
11.8
11.5
11.2
10.8
9.9
9.2
Cl **

1-92

2-92

4-92


First quarter
data are preliminary estimates.


3-92

670.5
689.1
9.6
12.0
9.6
11.4

705.1
729.4

14.5

a>

1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94

4-91

Initial Quarter
2-93 3-93 4-93

4.9
12.0 10.7 17.0
9 7 12Ä i 7.6
10.9
12.5 11.9 14.4 13.1
■12.2 11.8 13.5 124
118 11.3 12.7 11.6
11.4 11 0 12.0 11.0
11.0 10.5 11.4 10.5
9.9
9.4 10.0
9.1
9.1
8.6
9.0
8.1
'
*
•
Ä
O
'.
o * 1 ft
4Ì
O-P 2 2
1-93

2-93

3-93

21

4-93

738.1
767.6
781.7
816.5

19.0
15.0
13.0
11.9
11.1
9.3
8.1
a
c
v.O

11.0
10.1
9.6
9.1
7.5
5.4

1-94

2-94

f. 1

838.1
856.8
874.9
891.2

9.2
9.0
8.5
6.6
5.5
.........

8.7
8.2

3-94

4-94

5.7
4.6
tkA - «sà

7.7
4.3
3.3

1.0
1.2
4.4

0«v

1-95

2-95

3-95

893.4
896.4
»IV.

1.3
4-95

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 31,1996

Trade and Current Account Balances
Current Prices
Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

The goods and services trade balance and the current account are for the current plus 3 previous quarters
until 1993. Since 1993, the goods and services trade balance uses the current plus previous 11 months.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

U.S. International Transactions
(Millions of Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted)
4-95

3-95

2-95

1-95

4-94

3-94

2-94

202,148
48,264

197,805
44,450

194,359
45,401

189,396
43,185

184,873
38,307

178,274
36,031

171,823
32,338

Imports
Goods and Services
-224,017
Income Payments on Foreign Assets in the U.S. -49,791

-225,112
-49,613

-227,700
-48,085

-218,300
-45,215

-212,340
-42,878

-207,081
-38,564

-198,746
-34,623

Exports
Goods and Services
Income Receipts on U.S. Assets Abroad

Balance on Current Account

-31,073

-40,250

-43,142

-38,454

-43,277

-39,714

-37,986

Change in U.S. Assets Abroad
U.S. Official Reserve Assets
U.S. Private Assets

-76,769
191
-76,720

-27,517
-1,893
-25,870

-100,355
-2,722
-97,453

-75,455
-5,318
-69,985

-55,156
2,033
-56,258

-27,940
-165
-27,492

-5,973
3,537
-10,001

90,609
10,993
79,616

116,544
39,346
77,198

124,332
37,836
86,496

94,841
22,308
72,533

84,715
-421
85,136

79,736
19,691
60,045

46,526
9,162
37,364

Change in Foreign Assets in the U.S.
Foreign Official Assets
Other Foreign Assets

Note: Negative values indicate dollar outflows from the United States.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

22

Gross Saving as a Percent of GDP
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent

Percent

Total saving equals private saving plus government surplus and consumption of fixed capital.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Saving and Investment
(Billions of Dollars and Percent of GDP)
Gross
Private Saving

Gross
Government
Saving

Gross
Private Domestic
Investment

Gross
Gov't Domestic
Investment

1993: 1
2
3
4

Billion
982.2
955.1
964.3
956.2

Billion
-71.5
-27.1
-24.0
18.4

Percent
-1.1
-0.4
-0.4
0.3

Billion
843.6
855.9
873.8
911.2

Billion
207.1
210.6
209.8
214.7

Percent
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2

Billion
-59.4
-83.4
-94.7
-115.2

1994: 1
2
3
4

1014.2
996.0
1001.1
1012.8

15.0
14.5
14.3
14.3

20.6
73.8
53.3
52.0

0.3
1.1
0.8
0.7

957.6
1016.5
1033.6
1050.1

14.1
14.8
14.8
14.8

207.3
208.5
217.2
216.3

3.1
3.0
3.1
3.1

-109.0
-137.7
-149.6
-161.9

-1.6
-2.0
-2.1
-2.3

1995: 1
2
3
4

1039.9
1007.3
1076.1
1126.6

14.5
14.0
14.7
15.3

70.5
85.0
79.6
81.3

1.0
1.2
1.1
1.1

1072.0
1050.3
1074.8
1064.0

15.0
14.6
14.7
14.5

219.1
223.7
224.7
220.1

3.1
3.1
3.1
3.0

-144.4
-160.1
-148.9
-111.0

-2.0
-2.2
-2.0
-1.5

1996: 1

1119.3

15.1

79.3

1.1

1065.4

14.4

227.9

3.1

-136.5

-1.8

Percent
15.2
14.7
14.7
14.3

Percent
13.1
13.2
13.3
13.6

Net
Foreign
Investment
Percent
-0.9
-1.3
-1.4
-1.7

Note: Gross private and government saving equals gross private, government, and net foreign investment minus a statistical discrepancy.
Net Foreign Investment is the excess of U.S. investment abroad over foreign investment in the U.S..



23

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Corporate Profits After Tax
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-91
_<A o
-108
-2.6

3-91

1-92
2-92

14*1

29*0

4.3

9.9

3-92
4-92

*7*8

3-91
4-91

8.0

1*93

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates

Initial Quarter

.

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94
"'

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95
240.7
244.4

6.3
56.0 _ -

273.4

11.7 -20.3

258.3

-7J3 -11,1 -33.0 -43.6

223.8

12.2

13.7

2.2

15.8 138.1

sw

6-1 ....9-3 ..........................

278.0

-4.4

274.9

2-93

7.5

10.4

11.2

3.8

10.9

38.9

6.1

17.8

3-93
4-93

10.5

135

14.6

8-8

15.8

38.7

27.4

37.8

12.3

15.2

16.4

11.6

18.0

36.8

15.8
19.1

1-94

5-2

6.9

7.0

2*0

5.7

17.3

28.1
4 fi

33.7 29.6
Q .je û

2-94

11.0

13.2

13.9

10.0

14.5

26.7

18.2

18.3

12.4

4.6 100.9

10*9

12.9

13.5

9.9

13,9

24.4

16.7

16.4

it s

6,2

48,2

9*4

14.1

286.4
310.3
331.1
c

284.5
338.7
346.4

4-94

10.9

12.7

13.3

10.0

13.6

22.8

13.1

15.8

15.5

11.4

7.3

34.5

10.0

1-95

9.0

10.6

10.9

7.8

10.8

18.5

9.7

11-6

1QJ

6*8

2.7

20.3

1.4

2-95

8.8

10.2

10.5

7.6

10.3

17.3

9.2

10.9

10.0

6.6

3.1

17.2

2.4

3-95

11.3

12.9

13.3

10.7

13.6

20.4

132

15.1

14.8

12.2

9.9

23.5

m t

12.7

13.4

30.1

60.8

4-95

11.2

12.7

13.1

10.7

13.3

19.6

12.9

14.6

14.3

11.9

9.9

21.5

11.7

12.2 12.6

23.0

33.0

10.0

1-96

11.2

12.6

12.9

10.6

13.1

18.9

12.7

142

13.9

11.8

9.9

20.0

11.5

11.9

12,1

19.7

24.9

10.1

10.3

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

10.7

355.3

-2.4 -13,9
0.2 -4.7

Corporate Profits After Tax with Capital Consumption and Inventory Valuation Adjustments.
First quarter data are preliminary estimates.

342.3
5.4

346.8
390.5
399.9
409.8

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 31,1996

Corporate Profits and Net Cash Flow
(Billions of Dollars)
Inventory
Valuation
Adjustment

Capital
Consumption
Adjustment

Corporate
Prof its(1 )

After-Tax
Profits(1)

Dividends

Capital
Consumption

3
4

417.3
409.3
351.3
427.7

273.4
258.3
223.8
278.0

162.1
164.6
170.9
180.4

395.5
398.7
414.7
403.1

0.3
-21.9
-8.6
0.2

5.9
5.0
-8.1
7.2

506.5
514.3
476.1
500.6

1993: 1
2
3
4

426.4
449.0
469.6
512.8

274.9
286.4
310.3
331.1

190.2
195.8
200.2
202.9

409.5
414.2
422.7
421.4

-14.6
-15.6
7.9
-4.0

5.0
5.8
3.8
12.3

508.8
520.4
524.9
553.5

1994: 1
2
3
4

455.9
531.5
549.8
568.9

284.5
338.7
346.4
355.3

204.4
208.8
212.5
218.5

455.4
432.2
437.1
439.3

-3.9
-9.8
-16.5
-22.8

-11.8
18.1
18.8
21.3

539.4
572.0
587.6
598.8

1995: 1
2
3
4

559.6
561.1
614.9
618.6

342.3
346.8
390.5
399.9

221.7
224.6
228.5
234.7

444.4
451.3
456.9
463.6

-51.9
-42.3
-9.3
-8.8

17.4
15.0
14.6
16.5

616.9
615.8
628.2
637.6

1996: 1

642.8

409.8

239.9

465.8

-16.1

20.2

651.8

1992: 1
2

Net
Cash Flow

(1) Profits data includes the Inventory Valuation Adjustment and Capital Consumption Adjustment.
The latter is the excess of depreciation allowances over Capital Consumption.
Net Cash Flow equals After-Tax Corporate Profits less Dividends, less the Inventory Valuation Adjustment, plus Capital Consumption.



Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis

24

Government Deficit(-)/Surplus(+)
Seasonally Adjusted
Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

National income accounts basis

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Federal Government Debt
(Billions of Dollars)
Seasonally Adjusted End of Month Totals
Federal Debt
held by Federal
Reserve Banks
273.2
274.6
300.2
295.6

Federal Debt
Federal Debt
held by Private held by Foreign
Investors
Investors
2645.2
505.9
2724.0
532.2
2774.8
538.1
2838.4
546.1

1992: March
June
September
December

Gross
Federal
Debt
3882.8
3983.9
4078.5
4161.2

Federal Debt held
by Agencies
and T rusts
980.2
997.4
1019.3
1037.9

Net
Federal
Debt
2904.2
2988.5
3059.3
3120.4

1993: March
June
September
December

4234.6
4349.4
4425.7
4519.4

1061.4
1088.2
1119.4
1142.8

3173.9
3263.1
3307.0
3373.4

311.4
324.6
330.1
337.5

2875.4
2949.9
2993.0
3046.4

562.1
570.9
593.8
619.2

1994: March
June
September
December

4582.0
4641.1
4707.1
4784.3

1162.4
1190.2
1215.4
1245.9

3420.0
3452.4
3493.2
3535.0

349.2
352.7
360.4
367.6

3074.0
3099.7
3138.2
3167.1

630.7
637.3
657.9
684.4

1995: March
June
September
December

4871.4
4944.9
4989.4
4972.9

1277.7
1302.5
1322.9
1293.5

3594.4
3643.6
3668.4
3675.8

376.1
382.7
380.1
384.6

3217.7
3256.6
3290.8
3293.8

725.8
790.0
850.8
856.3

Columns may not add because each component is seasonally adjusted separately. Gross federal debt equals debt held by agencies and trusts plus
net federal debt.
Net federal debt equals debt held by Federal Reserve banks plus debt held by private investors (which includes debt held by foreign investors).
Sources: Orginal data may be found in the TREASURY BULLETIN and also in the FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN; seasonally adjusted series prepared
—

by this Bank.



Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Government Budgets
(Billions of Dollars; National Income Account Basis)
Federal, State and Local

Federal

1992:1
2
3
4

Receipts
1183.4
1193.1
1187.0
1230.5

Expenditures
1450.7
1472.8
1484.5
1509.5

Surplus/
Deficit(-)
-267.4
-279.6
-297.5
-279.0

1993:1
2
3
4

1225.2
1271.3
1280.3
1324.4

1508.9
1520.5
1533.8
1556.8

-283.7
-249.2
-253.5
-232.4

1916.8
1977.4
1995.0
2057.1

2120.0
2137.5
2153.6
2174.5

-203.2
-160.1
-158.6
-117.4

177.3
181.5
187.2
197.0

1994:1
2
3
4

1321.9
1382.8
1387.1
1416.3

1534.7
1552.7
1573.5
1606.8

-212.9
-169.9
-186.3
-190.4

2053.3
2129.1
2143.3
2184.4

2171.4
2193.8
2230.0
2275.6

-118.1
-64.7
-86.7
-91.1

192.2
197.5
196.9
196.9

1995:1
2
3
4

1449.3
1483.2
1486.6
1494.7

1622.6
1643.8
1648.1
1649.7

-173.3
-160.5
-161.6
-154.9

2224.4
2266.7
2284.2
2298.6

2298.7
2328.2
2351.8
2365.4

-74.4
-61.5
-67.7
-66.8

205.8
211.3
203.8
203.3

1996:1

1521.8

1677.4

-155.7

2337.6

2406.7

-69.1

204.0

Receipts
1841.4
1858.9
1860.1
1921.8

Expenditures
2024.0
2051.9
2075.7
2109.1

S urplus/
Deficit(-)
-182.6
-193.0
-215.5
-187.3

G rants-in-Aid (1)
165.4
173.0
174.2
176.3

(1) Federal Grants-in-Aid to state and local government are part of federal expenditures and state and local receipts, but are netted out in computing total
government measures.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Federal Budgets
Fiscal Years
(Billions of Dollars; Unified Budget Basis)

Calendar Years
(Billions of Dollars; National Income Account Basis)

1990

Receipts
1031.3

Outlays
1252.5

Surplus/
Deficit(-)
-221.4

Receipts
1129.8

Expenditures
1284.5

S urplus/
Deficit(-)
-154.7

1991

1054.3

1323.6

-269.2

1149.0

1345.0

-196.0

1992

1090.5

1380.9

-290.4

1198.5

1479.4

-280.9

1993

1153.5

1408.7

-255.1

1275.3

1530.0

-254.7

1994

1257.5

1460.8

-203.4

1377.0

1566.9

-189.9

1995

1350.6

1519.1

-163.8

1478.4

1641.0

-162.6

Note: Fiscal years refer to the budget year which runs October 1 through September 30.
Total budget outlays include federal entities that are off budget.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

26

Federal Government Receipts
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1*94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95

3-91

4-91

1-92

3.4
3.2
4.8
4.4

at
5.1
4.1
5.5

5.2
6.1

5.4
6.6

6.1
6.3
6.5
67
6.4
6.2

1-96
2-91

2-92

3-92

4-92

•

3.0
5.5
4.7
3:0
5.4
4.2
5.8
5.4
6.4
5.6
6.9

8.0
5.6
3.0
6.0
4.4
6.2
5.8
6.8
5.9
7.2

3.3
0.6
5.3
3.5
5.9
5.4
6.6
5.7
7.2

-2.0
6.4
3.6
6.6
5.8
7.2
6.0
7.7

6.4
6.6
6.8
7.0
6.6
6.3
6.4

6.7
6.9
7.1
7.3
6.8
6.5
6.6

6.6
6.8
7.0
7.2
6.7
6.4
6.5

6.9
7.1
7.3
7.5
7.0
6.7
6.7

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

§

1-93

' '

-1.7
6.7
$.4
7.6

15.9
9.2
10.9

7.4 5.9 7.9
9.1
8.1
8.2
8.3
8.4
7.8
7.3

8.1
7.1
7.3
7.5
7.8
7.1
6.7

10.2
8.6
8.6
8.8
8.9
8.0
7.5

7.4 6.8 7.5
3-92

4-92

1-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

V

&
§§§§'< ' §£
3
§§
S+«■

15.5
6.5
9.6
7.9
9.2

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates

Initial Quarter
2-93 3-93 4-93

,

2.9
8.5
5.3
8.8

7.2
7.5

14.5
6.6
10.8
8.3
8.4

7.8 8.8
8.0

8.8

7.2 7.8

-0.8
9.0
6.4
6.9
7.5
7.8
6.8
6.2

19.7

10.1 12
9.6
9.6
9.6

7.1

6.8

72 6.4
3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

8.1

6.7
2-93

7.3

4.9
6.5
7.3
6.0
53
$.6

7.3

,

8.7
9.2
9.3
6.2
6.4

9.7
9.7
6.7
5.5
6.9

9.7
5.2
4.2

3-94

4-94

1-95

72

First quarter data are preliminary estimates.

5.0

•

0.9
1.6
3.5

2.2
4.8

7.5

2-95

3-95

4-95

1,152.3
1,160.9
1,183.4
1,193.1
1,187.0
1,230.5
1,225.2
1,271.3
1,280.3
1,324.4
1,321.9
1,382.8
1,387.1
1,416.3
1,449.3
1,483.2
1,486.6
1,494.7
1,521.8

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 31, 1996

Federal Government Current Expenditures
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Billions of Dollars
2-91

3-91
4-91

8.3
9.2

1-92
2-92

115
10.0
8.6
8.3

3-02
4-92
1-93
2-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
1-96.

3-91

4-91

10.2
12.7
105
8.7
83
6.8
6.3

15.4
107
8.1
78
6.2
5.7

6.1
5.1

6.0
4.8
4.8

5.5
4.2
4.2

5.1
5.3

4.8
5.1

4.3
4.7

5,3
5.3
5.0
4.7
4.9

5.0
5.1
4.8
4.5
4.7

4,6
4.7
4.5
4.2
4.3

2-91

3-91

4-91

7.1
6.6
6.2

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

Initial Quarter
2-93 3-93 4-93

Annual Rates
1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95
1,366.3
1,399.8
1,450.7
1,472.8
1,484.5
1,509.5

6.2
4.7 ¡ ¡ i l l
54
5.0
3J3
4*
3.8

3.2

4.1
3.8
2.4
2.9
2.7
3.1
3.3 I 3.0
3.8
3.5
3.8
3.6
3.7
3.9
3.7
3.5
3.5
3.3
3.7
3.5
1-92

First quarter
data are preliminary estimates.



2-92

6.9
3.3
3.2
3.3
3.9
2.2
2.6
3.0
3.6
3.6
3.8
3.5
3.3
3.6

-02
1.5

3-92

4-92

I

1,508.9
1,520.5
1,533.8
1,556.8
1,534.7
1,552.7

31

3.1

4.3
1.7
1.3
1.9
23
2.4
28
3.2
3.7
3.3 :.m .
3.5
3.9
32
3.6
3.0
3.3
3.6
3.3
1-93

4.8
1.2
2.1
2.8
3.7
3.8
4.0
3.6
3.3
3,6
2-93

6.1
0.1
1.6
2.6
3.8
3.8
4.0
3.7
3.3
3.6

*6.6
-0.5
1.4
3.2
3.4
3.7
3.3
2.9
3.4

5.1
6.3
5.7
5.6
4.9
4.2
4.$

3-93

4-93

1-94

9 “7

4.8
5.5 K
\
7.1
8.7
6.0
6.3
4.0
5.9
6.0
4.7
4.9
4.7
3.4
4.1
3.9
2.7
f i t 44
2-94 3-94

«i.
5.3
11
0.7

0.4

3.5

32
2.2
3.4

2.7

3.6

6.9

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1,573.5
1,606.8
1,622.6
1,643.8
1,648.1
1,649.7
1,677.4

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 3 1 ,1 9 9 6

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Post Office Box 442
St. Louis, Missouri 63166

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