Full text of National Economic Trends : June 1993

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June 1993

N ational
Economic
Trends
Do Foreign ValueAdded Taxes Affect U.S.
Competitiveness?
In mid-April President Clinton cited a value-added
tax (VAT) as a possible way to pay for universal
health insurance. Since then the VAT has reappeared
in a variety of tax reform proposals. What are VATs
and how might other countries’ use of them affect
U.S. competitiveness?
A VAT is a sales tax imposed at every stage of pro­
duction; it is levied on the difference between what a
iucer pays for inputs and the value of the output.
Assuming VATs partially replace income taxes, econ­
omists often point out that VATs encourage saving by
taxing consumption rather than income. A higher
savings rate would foster capital formation and eco­
nomic growth. A more subtle but prominent argu­
ment is that the international competitiveness of U.S.
products is harmed when U.S. producers must pay
foreign VATs when exporting to many other countries,
whereas foreign producers do not face a U.S. VAT
when sending goods to the United States. This argu­
ment claims that if foreign producers faced a U.S.
VAT when exporting to the United States, and U.S.
exporters received a refund of the U.S. VAT when
paying foreign VATs, then U.S. and foreign producers
would be on a more level playing field. It is not clear,
however, to what extent foreign VATs distort bilateral
trade balances between the United States and other
countries.
If a lack of VAT harmony with other nations has a
strong negative effect on U.S. competitiveness, then,
other things equal, countries with high VAT rates

should have relatively large trade surpluses with the
United States. As the accompanying chart shows,
however, no systematic relationship exists between
VAT rates for member countries of the Organization
of Economic Cooperation and Development and their
trade surpluses with the United States. Countries with
trade surpluses (more exports than imports) with the
United States have a full range of VAT rates. The
two countries in the upper left comer are Japan and
Canada, two of the United States’ largest trading part­
ners. They have two of the lowest VAT rates, yet have
the largest ratios of exports to imports with the United
States. It appears that the pattern of U.S. bilateral
trade deficits and surpluses is determined largely by
factors other than VAT rates. Thus U.S. competitive­
ness does not appear to be a compelling reason for the
United States to adopt a VAT; such a tax would have
to stand on other merits.
— Michael J. Dueker
The Ratio for OECD Countries of Exports to the United
States and Imports from the United States in 1991.
Exports/Imports
2

1

1

0

0

5

10

15

20

25

VAT Tax Rates (Percent)

Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System.
National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research and Public Information Division. Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing
Research and Public Information, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or by calling 314-444-8809.
Information in this publication is also included in the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board. You can access FRED with a personal
computer
and a modem at 314-621-1824.




Consumer Price Index - All Urban Consumers
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1987

1988

1989

1990

Percent

1991

1992

1993

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Consumer Price Index
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

1982-84=100
8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

2.7

11-91

3.6

4.5

12-91

3.3

3.5

2.6

1-92

3.3

3.5

3.1

3.5

3-93

137.8
138.1
138.5
138.8

2-92

3.2

3.3

2.9

3.1

2.6

3-92

3.4

3.5

3.3

3.5

3.5

4.4

4-92

3.4

3.5

3.3

3.5

3.5

4.0

3.5

5-92

3.2

3.3

3.1

3.2

3.1

3.2

2.6

1.7

6-92

3.1

3.2

3.0

3.1

3.0

3.1

2.6

2.2

2.6

139.3
139.7
139.9
140.2

7-92

3.2

3.2

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.1

2.8

2.6

3.0

3.5

8-92

3.1

3.2

3.0

3.1

3.0

3.0

2.8

2.6

2.9

3.0

2.6

9-92

3.0

3.0

2.9

2.9

2.8

2.9

2.6

2.4

2.6

2.6

2.2

10-92

3.2

3.2

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.2

3.0

2.9

3.1

3.2

3.2

3.5

5.2

11-92

3.1

3.2

3.0

3.1

3.0

3.1

2.9

2.8

3.0

3.1

3.0

3.2

3.9

2.6

12-92

3.0

3.1

2.9

3.0

2.9

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.9

2.8

2.8

3.2

2.1

3.2

2-93

137.3

10-91

1-93

1-93

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

3.3

140.6

3.3

140.9
141.1

1.7

3.4

3.9

141.7
142.0
142.2

1.7

142.9

3.4

3.9

6.1
5.2

4.3

2-93

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.4

3.6

4.0

3.6

4.0

3-93

3.2

3.2

3.1

3.2

3.1

3.2

3.1

3.0

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.6

3.2

3.4

4.0

3.0

1.7

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.4

3.4

3.5

3.8

3.6

3.8

4.3

3.7

3.4

5.1

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.2

3.4

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92




143.4
143.6
144.2

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 13, 1993

2

Consumer Price Index - Food
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

10-91

0.0

11-91

3.1

12-91

3.3

4.9

3.6

1-92

2.2

3.0

1.3

-0.9

2-92

2.5

3.1

2.1

1.3

3.6

3-92

2.8

3.4

2.7

2.4

4.0

4.5

4-92

2.5

3.0

2.3

2.0

2.9

2.6

0.9

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

1982-84=100
8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93
136.1

6.3

136.8
137.2
137.1
137.5
138.0
138.1

5-92

1.5

1.8

1.0

0.5

0.9

0.0

-2.2

-5.1

6-92

1.5

1.7

1.0

0.6

0.9

0.2

-1.2

-2.2

0.9

7-92

1.2

1.4

0.8

0.4

0.6

0.0

-1.1

-1.7

0.0

-0.9

8-92

1.8

1.9

1.5

1.2

1.5

1.2

0.5

0.4

2.3

3.1

7.2

9-92

1.9

2.1

1.7

1.5

1.8

1.5

1.0

1.0

2.6

3.2

5.4

3.5

10-92

1.8

1.9

1.5

1.3

1.6

1.3

0.9

0.9

2.1

2.4

3.5

1.7

0.0

11-92

1.7

1.8

1.5

1.3

1.5

1.3

0.9

0.9

1.9

2.1

2.9

1.5

0.4

0.9

12-92

1.8

1.9

1.6

1.5

1.7

1.5

1.2

1.2

2.1

2.3

3.0

2.0

1.4

2.2

3.5

137.5
137.6
137.5
138.3
138.7
138.7
138.8
139.2

1-93

2.0

2.1

1.8

1.7

1.9

1.7

1.5

1.5

2.4

2.6

3.2

2.4

2.2

2.9

4.0

4.4

2-93

2.0

2.1

1.8

1.7

1.9

1.7

1.5

1.6

2.3

2.5

3.0

2.3

2.1

2.6

3.2

3.1

1.7

3-93

1.9

2.1

1.8

1.7

1.9

1.7

1.5

1.6

2.3

2.4

2.8

2.2

2.0

2.4

2.8

2.6

1.7

1.7

4-93

2.1

2.2

2.0

1.9

2.0

1.9

1.7

1.8

2.5

2.6

3.0

2.5

2.4

2.8

3.1

3.0

2.6

3.0

4.4

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

139.7
139.9
140.1
140.6

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 13, 1993

Consumer Price Index - Energy
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Month
_______ 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

Initial Month
1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

1982-84=100
8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

10-91

1.2

11-91

2.4

3.6

12-91

3.6

4.8

1-92

0.0

-0.4

-2.3 -10.1

2-92

-0.9

-1.5

-3.1

-7.4

-4.6

3-92

-0.2

-0.5

-1.5

-3.9

-0.6

3.6

4-92

0.3

0.2

-0.5

-2.0

0.8

3.6

3.6

5-92

1-0

1.0

0.6

-0.5

2.1

4.4

4.8

6.1

6-92

2.6

2.8

2.7

2.2

4.8

7.3

8.6

11.1

16.4

7-92

3.2

3.4

3.4

3.0

5.4

7.5

8.5

10.2

12.4

8.5

8-92

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.1

3.9

5.4

5.8

6.3

6.4

1.8

-4.5

9-92

2.3

2.4

2.3

1.8

3.4

4.6

4.8

5.0

4.8

1.2

-2.3

0.0

10-92

2.6

2.7

2.6

2.2

3.7

4.8

5.0

5.2

5.0

2.3

0.4

2.9

6.0

11-92

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.2

3.6

4.5

4.6

4.8

4.6

2.3

0.9

2.7

4.1

2.3

12-92

2.2

2.3

2.2

1.9

3.0

3.8

3.8

3.9

3.6

1.6

0.2

1.5

1.9

0.0

-2.3

1-93

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.2

3.3

4.0

4.1

4.1

3.9

2.2

1.2

2.3

2.9

1.9

1.7

5.9

2-93

2.0

2.1

2.0

1.7

2.6

3.3

3.2

3.2

2.9

1.3

0.3

1.2

1.4

0.3

-0.4

0.6

-4.5

3-93

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.1

3.0

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.4

2.1

1.3

2.2

2.5

1.9

1.7

3.1

1.7

8.4

4-93

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.1

3.0

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.3

2.1

1.4

2.2

2.5

1.9

1.9

2.9

1.9

5.3

2.3

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

101.2
101.5
6.1




102.0
101.1
100.7
101.0
101.3
101.8
103.1
103.8
103.4
103.4
103.9
104.1
103.9
104.4
104.0
104.7
104.9

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 13, 1993

3

Producer Price Index —Finished Goods
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1987

1988

1989

1990

Percent

1991

1992

1993

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Producer Price Index - Finished Goods
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal

Initial Month
9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

1982 * 100
8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93
122.0

10-91

3.0

11-91

2.5

2.0

12-91

0.7

-0.5

-2.9

1-92

0.5

-0.3

-1.5

0.0

2-92

1.0

0.5

0.0

1.5

3.0

3-92

1.3

1.0

0.7

2.0

3.0

3.0

4-92

1.6

1.3

1.2

2.2

3.0

3.0

3.0

5-92

1.9

1.7

1.6

2.6

3.2

3.3

3.5

4.0

6-92

2.0

1.8

1.8

2.6

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.5

3.0

7-92

1.8

1.6

1.6

2.3

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.3

1.5

0.0

8-92

1.7

1.6

1.5

2.1

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.0

1.3

0.5

1.0

9-92

1.8

1.7

1.7

2.2

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.2

1.7

1.3

2.0

122.2
121.9
121.9
122.2
122.5
122.8
123.2
123.5
123.5
123.6
3.0

123.9

10-92

1.7

1.6

1.6

2.1

2.3

2.2

2.1

2.0

1.6

1.2

1.6

2.0

1.0

11-92

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.7

1.9

1.7

1.6

1.4

1.0

0.6

0.7

0.6

-0.5

-1.9

12-92

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.6

1.7

1.6

1.4

1.2

0.8

0.5

0.6

0.5

-0.3

-1.0

0.0

1-93

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.6

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.3

1.0

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.2

0.0

1.0

2.0

2-93

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.8

2.0

1.9

1.8

1.7

1.4

1.2

1.4

1.5

1.2

1.2

2.3

3.4

4.9

3-93

1.8

1.7

1.7

2.0

2.2

2.1

2.0

2.0

1.8

1.6

1.8

1.9

1.8

1.9

2.9

3.9

4.9

4.9

4-93

2.1

2.0

2.0

2.3

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.2

2.1

2.4

2.6

2.5

2.8

3.7

4.7

5.6

5.9

6.9

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93




124.0
123.8
123.8
124.0
124.5
125.0
125

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 12, 1993

4

Civilian Em ploym ent and U nem ploym ent Rate
Seasonally Adjusted
Millions of Persona
12 6

119

112

10 5

-i------ 1------ 1------ ------ 1------ 1------r
1987

1988

1989

1990

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
P ercen tages are annual rates of chan ge for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Civilian Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Honth

Initial Honth
9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

10-91

-1.3

11-91

-0.9

-0.5

12-91

-1.2

-1.2

-1.8

1-92

-0.2

0.2

0.5

3.0

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

Thousands of
Persons
8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93
116,980
116,932
116,752
117,036

2-92

-0.3

0.0

0.1

1.1

-0.8

3-92

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.8

1.2

3.1

4-92

0.6

0.9

1.2

2.0

1.7

2.9

2.6

116,962
117,264
117,518

5-92

0.6

0.9

1.1

1.7

1.4

2.1

1.6

0.6

6-92

0.5

0.7

0.8

1.3

1.0

1.4

0.8

0.0

-0.7

7-92

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.4

1.2

1.6

1.2

0.7

0.7

2.2

8-92

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.3

1.1

1.4

1.1

0.7

0.7

1.4

0.6

9-92

0.5

0.7

0.8

1.1

0.9

1.1

0.8

0.4

0.4

0.7

0.0

-0.6

10-92

0.5

0.6

0.7

1.0

0.7

0.9

0.6

0.3

0.2

0.5

-0.1

-0.5

11-92

0.7

0.9

1.0

1.2

1.1

1.3

1.0

0.8

0.8

1.1

0.9

1.0

1.7

3.9

12-92

0.8

1.0

1.1

1.3

1.2

1.4

1.2

1.0

1.1

1.4

1.2

1.4

2.0

3.2

2.5

1-93

0.6

0.7

0.8

1.0

3.9

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.6

0.8

0.6

0.6

0.9

1.3

0.0

-2.4

2-93

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.2

1.1

1.3

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.5

2.0

1.3

0.7

3.9

3-93

0.8

1.0

1.0

1.2

1.1

1.3

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.4

1.8

1.3

0.9

2.5

1.2

4-93

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.1

0.9

1.1

0.9

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.8

0.8

1.0

1.2

0.7

0.3

1.2

-0.2

-1.5

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93




117,580
117,510
117,722
117,780
117,724
-0.4

117,687
118,064
118,311
118,071
118,451
118,565
118,416

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Hay 7, 1993

Payroll Em ploym ent
Seasonally Adjusted
Millions of P erso ns

Millions of Persons

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

Shaded area represents a period o f business recession.
P ercen tages are annual rates of ch an ge for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Payroll Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Thousands of
Persons

Initial Month

Terminal
Month
9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93
108,285

10-91

-0.1

11-91

-0.9

-1.6

12-91

-0.5

-0.7

0.2

1-92

-0.5

-0.7

-0.2

-0.6

2-92

-0.3

-0.4

0.0

-0.1

0.5

3-92

-0.2

-0.2

0.2

0.2

0.6

0.6

4-92

0.1

0.2

0.5

0.6

1.0

1.3

2.0

5-92

0.3

0.3

0.7

0.8

1.1

1.3

1.7

1.3

6-92

0.2

0.2

0.5

0.5

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.3

-0.8

7-92

0.3

0.4

0.6

0.7

0.9

1.0

1.1

0.8

0.5

1.9

8-92

0.2

0.2

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.3

0.0

0.3

-1.2

9-92

0.2

0.2

0.4

0.4

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.3

0.0

0.3

-0.5

0.1

10-92

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.4

-0.1

0.5

0.8

11-92

0.3

0.3

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.4

0.3

0.5

0.1

0.6

0.8

0.8

12-92

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.5

0.4

0.6

0.3

0.7

0.9

1.0

1.2

1-93

0.4

0.4

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.7

0.5

0.8

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

2-93

0.6

0.6

0.8

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.0

0.9

0.9

1.1

1.0

1.3

1.6

1.8

2.1

2.5

3.8

3-93

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.8

1.1

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.8

-0.1

4-93

0.6

0.6

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.8

1.0

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

0.6

1.3

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

108,139




108,154
108,100
108,142
108,200
108,377
108,496
108,423
108,594
108,485
108,497
108,571
108,646
108,752
108,865
109,203
109,194
109,313

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 7, 1993

6

Service-Producing Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Initial Month

Terminal
Month

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

10-91

0.6

11-91

-0.1

-0.8

12-91

0.2

-0.1

0.6

1-92

0.1

0.0

0.3

0.0

2-92

0.2

0.1

0.4

0.3

0.6

3-92

0.3

0.2

0.5

0.5

0.7

0.7

4-92

0.6

0.6

0.9

1.0

1.3

1.6

2.6

5-92

0.7

0.7

1.0

1.1

1.3

1.6

2.0

6-92

0.7

0.7

0.9

0.9

1.1

1.2

1.4

0.8

0.1

7-92

0.8

0.9

1.1

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.4

1.3

2.6

8-92

0.8

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.0

0.8

1.2

-0.2

9-92

0.8

0.8

1.0

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.0

0.9

1.2

0.5

1.1

10-92

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.1

1.0

1.2

0.8

1.3

1.4

11-92

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.1

1.0

1.2

0.8

1.1

1.2

12-92

0.9

0.9

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.3

1.1

1.1

1.3

1.0

1.3

1.4

1.3

1.7

1-93

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.3

1.1

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.6

1.5

2-93

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.6

1.4

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.2

2.4

3.3

3-93

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.5

1.4

1.6

1.6

1.7

1.9

1.9

2.1

1.0

4-93

1.2

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.6

1.5

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.1

2.2

2.4

1.9

2.8

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

Thousands of
Persons
84,581
84,526
84,570
84,573
84,617
84,668
84,847

1.4

84,948
84,953
85,135
85,123
85,201
85,301
0.9

85,366
85,489
85,598
85,829
85,901
86,099

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Hay 7, 1993

Goods-Producing Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terainal
Month

Initial Month
9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

10-91

-2.5

11-91

-3.5

-4.5

12-91

-2.8

-3.0

-1.5

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

Thousands of
Persons
1-93

2-93

3-93
23,704
23,613
23,584

1-92

-2.9

-3.0

-2.2

-2.9

2-92

-2.3

-2.2

-1.5

-1.5

-0.1

3-92

-1.9

-1.7

-1.0

-0.9

0.1

0.4

4-92

-1.6

-1.5

-0.8

-0.7

0.1

0.1

-0.1

5-92

-1.3

-1.1

-0.5

-0.4

0.3

0.4

0.4

23,527
23,525
23,532
23,530
0.9

23,548

6-92

-1.6

-1.5

-1.0

-1.0

-0.6

-0.7

-1.0

-1.5

-3.9

7-92

-1.5

-1.4

-1.0

-0.9

-0.6

-0.7

-0.9

-1.2

-2.2

-0.6

8-92

-1.8

-1.7

-1.4

-1.4

-1.2

-1.4

-1.7

-2.1

-3.1

-2.7

-4.9

23,470
23,459
23,362

9-92

-1.9

-1.9

-1.6

-1.6

-1.5

-1.7

-2.0

-2.4

-3.2

-2.9

-4.1

-3.3

10-92

-1.9

-1.8

-1.6

-1.6

-1.5

-1.6

-1.9

-2.2

-2.8

-2.5

-3.2

-2.3

-1.3

23,296
23,270

11-92

-1.7

-1.7

-1.4

-1.4

-1.3

-1.4

-1.6

-1.8

-2.3

-1.9

-2.3

-1.4

-0.4

0.5

12-92

-1.7

-1.6

-1.4

-1.4

-1.2

-1.3

-1.5

-1.7

-2.1

-1.8

-2.0

-1.3

-0.6

-0.2

-0.9

1-93

-1.5

-1.5

-1.3

-1.2

-1.1

-1.2

-1.3

-1.5

-1.8

-1.5

-1.6

-1.0

-0.4

-0.1

-0.3

0.2

2-93

-1.1

-1.0

-0.8

-0.8

-0.6

-0.6

-0.7

-0.8

-1.0

-0.6

-0.6

0.1

0.8

1.3

1.6

2.9

3-93

-1.3

-1.2

-1.0

-1.0

-0.9

-0.9

-1.0

-1.1

-1.3

-1.0

-1.1

-0.5

0.0

0.2

0.2

0.5

0.7

-4.1

4-93

-1.4

-1.4

-1.2

-1.2

-1.1

-1.1

-1.2

-1.3

-1.5

-1.3

-1.4

-0.9

-0.6

-0.5

-0.7

-0.6

-0.9

-4.0

-4.0

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93




23,280
23,263
23,267
5.7

23,374
23,293
23,214

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 7, 1993

7

Change in th e Em ploym ent Cost Index and Its Components
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

8

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1993

1992

Total com pensation is the sum of benefits and w ages and salaries for private industry workers.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Employment Cost Index - Total Compensation.
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

June 1989 = 100
1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92
96.6

3-88

3.8

4-88

4.4

5.1

1-89

4.3

4.6

4.2

2-89

4.4

4.6

4.3

97.8
98.8
4.5

99.9
101.2

3-89

4.6

4.8

4.7

4.9

5.3

4-89

4.6

4.8

4.7

4.9

5.1

4.8

1-90

4.8

4.9

4.9

5.1

5.2

5.2

5.6

2-90

4.8

4.9

4.9

5.1

5.2

5.2

5.3

5.1

3-90

4.7

4.9

4.8

4.9

5.0

4.9

5.0

4.7

4.3

4-90

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.4

4.0

3.8

1-91

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.4

4.2

4.2

4.6

2-91

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.7

4.9

102.4
103.8
105.1
106.2
107.2
108.4
109.7

3-91

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.6

4.7

4.4

4-91

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.3

4.1

3.7

1-92

4.5

4.6

4.5

4.6

4.6

4.5

4.5

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.2

4.0

3.8

4.0

3.7

2.9

110.9
111.9
113.0

2-92

4.4

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.0

4.1

4.0

3.5

3.4

3-92

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.4

3.4

3.0

3.2

4-92

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.4

3.4

3.2

3.4

3.5

1-93

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.6

3.9

4.2

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

113.8
114.7
115.7
116.9

Data are for the last aonth of quarter.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
April 27, 1993

Industrial Production
Seasonally Adjusted

-i— |— i— — i— |— i— — i— |— i
1987

1988

— i— |

1989

r

1990

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
P ercentages are annual rates of ch an ge for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Industrial Production
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

10-91

-2.3

11-91

-1.7

-1.1

12-91

-2.3

-2.3

-3.4

1-92

-2.3

-2.3

-2.8

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

1987 = 100
8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93
105.1
105.0
104.7

-2.3

104.5

2-92

0.0

0.6

1.1

3.5

9.6

3-92

0.6

1.1

1.7

3.5

6.5

3.5

4-92

1.6

2.3

3.0

4.7

7.1

5.8

8.3

5-92

2.0

2.6

3.3

4.6

6.4

5.4

6.4

4.6

6-92

0.9

1.3

1.6

2.5

3.5

2.0

1.5

-1.7

-7.6

7-92

1.7

2.2

2.6

3.5

4.5

3.5

3.4

1.9

0.6

9.4

8-92

1.3

1.7

2.0

2.7

3.5

2.5

2.3

0.8

-0.4

3.4

-2.2

9-92

0.9

1.1

1.4

1.9

2.5

1.5

1.1

-0.2

-1.4

0.8

-3.3

10-92

1.9

2.3

2.6

3.2

3.8

3.2

3.1

2.3

1.8

4.3

2.6

5.2

15.7

11-92

2.5

2.9

3.2

3.9

4.5

3.9

4.0

3.4

3.2

5.5

4.6

6.9

13.1

105.3
105.6
106.3
106.7
106.0
106.8
106.6
-4.4

106.2
107.5
10.5

108.4

12-92

2.7

3.1

3.4

4.0

4.6

4.1

4.2

3.7

3.6

5.5

4.8

6.6

10.6

8.1

5.7

1-93

2.8

3.2

3.5

4.0

4.6

4.2

4.2

3.8

3.7

5.4

4.7

6.2

9.0

6.9

5.1

108.9
4.5

109.3

2-93

3.1

3.4

3.7

4.2

4.8

4.4

4.5

4.1

4.0

5.6

5.0

6.3

8.6

6.8

5.7

5.6

6.8

3-93

2.9

3.2

3.5

4.0

4.4

4.0

4.1

3.7

3.6

4.9

4.4

5.4

7.1

5.4

4.2

3.7

3.3

0.0

4-93

2.8

3.1

3.3

3.8

4.2

3.8

3.8

3.5

3.4

4.5

4.0

4.8

6.2

4.7

3.6

3.1

2.6

0.5

1.1

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

109.9
109.9
110.0

Revised fro« 1986.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 14, 1993

Personal Incom e in 1987 Dollars
Seasonally Adjusted

Trillions of Dollars

Trillions of Dollars

4 .8

4.8

nr------ 1------ 1------------ 1------ 1------ 1------------ 1------ 1------ 1------------ 1
1987

1988

1989

| >■ i - -

-

1990

|

i

r

1991

1992

The personal consumption expenditures deflator is used to calculate real personal income
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
P ercentages are annual rates of chan ge for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Disposable Personal Income in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Initial Month

Terminal
Month
9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
3-93

2-93

3,526.4

10-91

5.3

11-91

0.4

-4.3

12-91

4.8

4.5

14.2

1-92

3.3

2.6

6.3

-1.1

2-92

3.8

3.4

6.1

2.3

5.8

3,513.4
3,552.5
3,549.3
3,565.9
3,581.9

3-92

4.1

3.8

6.0

3.4

5.6

5.5

4-92

3.0

2.7

4.1

1.8

2.7

1.3

-2.8

5-92

2.9

2.6

3.7

1.8

2.5

1.4

-0.6

1.8

6-92

2.5

2.1

3.1

1.3

1.8

0.9

-0.6

0.5

-0.8

7-92

2.2

1.8

2.6

1.1

1.4

0.6

-0.6

0.1

-0.7

-0.6

8-92

2.3

2.0

2.7

1.4

1.8

1.1

0.2

1.0

0.8

1.6

3,573.3
3,578.6
3,576.1
3,574.4
3,585.5

3.8

9-92

2.0

1.7

2.3

1.1

1.4

0.8

0.0

0.6

0.3

0.6

1.2

-1.3

10-92

2.7

2.5

3.1

2.1

2.4

2.0

1.5

2.3

2.3

3.2

4.4

4.8

11.2

11-92

2.3

2.0

2.6

1.6

1.9

1.4

0.9

1.5

1.4

1.9

2.5

2.1

3.8

-3.1

12-92

2.9

2.7

3.2

2.4

2.7

2.4

2.1

2.7

2.8

3.4

4.3

4.4

6.3

4.0

11.6

1-93

2.7

2.6

3.1

2.3

2.5

2.3

1.9

2.5

2.6

3.1

3.7

3.6

4.9

2.9

6.0

0.8

2-93

2.4

2.3

2.7

1.9

2.2

1.9

1.6

2.0

2.0

2.4

2.8

2.7

3.5

1.7

3.3

-0.6

-2.0

3-93

2.7

2.6

3.0

2.3

2.5

2.3

2.0

2.5

2.6

2.9

3.4

3.3

4.1

2.8

4.3

1.9

2.5

7.2

4-93

2.3

2.1

2.5

1.9

2.1

1.8

1.5

1.9

1.9

2.2

2.5

2.3

2.8

1.5

2.5

0.3

0.1

1.2

-4.5

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93




3,581.7
3,613.4
3,604.0
3,637.1
3,639.4
3,633.3
3,654.5
3,640.6

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
June 1, 1993

10

1

Retail Sales
Seasonally Adjusted
Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
The CPI is used to deflate retail sales data.
P ercen tage s are annual rate s o f chan ge for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Retail Sales in 1982-84 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Month
9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

Initial Honth
Dollars
6-92 7-92

5-92

Millions of
8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93
113,570

10-91

-3.5

11-91

-3.1

-2.7

12-91

-1.8

-0.9

1.0

1-92

2.3

4.3

8.0

15.6

113,308
113,400
114,776

2-92

4.6

6.7

10.0

14.8

3-92

1.7

2.8

4.3

5.4

116,040

4-92

1.1

1.9

2.9

3.4

-0.4

-6.9

-2.4

5-92

1.8

2.6

3.5

4.0

1.3

-2.6

2.1

6.7

6-92

1.2

1.8

2.5

2.7

0.3

-2.8

0.1

1.4

-3.6

7-92

1.6

2.2

2.8

3.1

1.2

-1.2

1.4

2.8

0.8

8-92

1.9

2.4

3.0

3.3

1.6

-0.3

2.0

3.1

2.0

4.9

4.2

9-92

2.2

2.7

3.3

3.5

2.1

0.5

2.6

3.6

2.9

5.1

5.0

5.7

10-92

3.5

4.1

4.8

5.2

4.1

2.9

5.1

6.4

6.4

9.0

10.2

13.3

21.5

11-92

2.9

3.4

4.0

4.3

3.2

2.0

3.8

4.8

4.4

6.1

6.3

7.0

7.6

-4.7

12-92

3.5

4.1

4.6

4.9

4.0

3.0

4.7

5.7

5.5

7.1

7.5

8.3

9.2

3.5

12.3

1-93

3.0

3.4

3.9

4.1

3.2

2.2

3.7

4.4

4.1

5.3

5.2

5.4

5.4

0.5

3.2

14.0

114,894

0.6 -11.2

114,661
115,284
114,931
5.5

115,445
115,844
116,379
118,280
117,811
118,956
118,427

-5.2

2-93

2.5

2.9

3.3

3.4

2.5

1.6

2.9

3.4

3.1

3.9

3.7

3.6

3.2

-0.9

0.4

-5.1

-4.9

117,933

3-93

1.7

2.0

2.3

2.4

1.5

0.6

1.7

2.0

1.6

2.2

1.8

1.4

0.7

-3.0

-2.6

-7.1

-8.0 -11.0

116,797

4-93

2.1

2.4

2.7

2.8

2.0

1.2

2.2

2.6

2.3

2.9

2.6

2.4

1.9

-1.0

-0.3

-3.2

-2.5

-1.3

9.5

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

117,684

Retail sales data deflated by CPI-U (1982-84=100).




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 13, 1993

11

Inventories Compared With Monthly Sales
Manufacturing and Trade
Seasonally Adjusted

Ratio

Ratio

1.62

1.62

I
^
1 \
1
1

1.58

1

1.54

.

y

Lva ^

1.50

1.46

1.42
1987

1988

1990

1989

1991

1.58

1.54

1.50

J

.

1.46

1.42

1992

1993

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Manufacturing and Trade Inventories
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Honth
8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

9-91

4.9

10-91

4.0

3.1

11-91

2.8

1.8

0.5

12-91

3.2

2.6

2.3

4.2

1-92

1.5

0.6

-0.2

-0.6

-5.1

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

Millions of
Dollars
7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93
827,925
830,005
830,373
833,213
829,609

2-92

1.4

0.7

0.1

0.0

-2.1

1.0

3-92

1.5

1.0

0.6

0.6

-0.6

1.8

2.5

4-92

2.0

1.6

1.3

1.5

0.8

2.9

3.8

5-92

1.7

1.3

1.1

1.1

0.5

2.0

2.3

2.2

-0.5

6-92

2.2

1.9

1.8

1.9

1.6

3.0

3.4

3.7

3.1

6.8

7-92

2.4

2.2

2.1

2.3

2.0

3.3

3.7

4.0

3.7

5.9

4.9

8-92

2.5

2.3

2.2

2.4

2.2

3.3

3.7

3.9

3.6

5.0

4.1

3.2

9-92

2.2

2.0

1.9

2.0

1.8

2.7

2.9

3.0

2.6

3.4

2.2

0.9

-1.4

10-92

2.2

1.9

1.8

2.0

1.7

2.5

2.7

2.8

2.4

3.0

2.0

1.1

0.0

1.4

11-92

2.1

1.9

1.8

2.0

1.8

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.3

2.8

2.0

1.2

0.6

1.6

1.8

12-92

2.2

2.0

1.9

2.0

1.9

2.5

2.7

2.7

2.4

2.8

2.2

1.6

1.2

2.1

2.5

3.2

1-93

2.3

2.1

2.0

2.1

2.0

2.6

2.7

2.7

2.5

2.9

2.3

1.9

1.6

2.4

2.7

3.2

3.2

2-93

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.3

2.2

2.8

2.9

3.0

2.7

3.1

2.7

2.3

2.2

2.9

3.3

3.8

4.1

5.1

3-93

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.8

2.7

3.2

3.4

3.5

3.4

3.8

3.4

3.2

3.2

4.0

4.5

5.2

5.9

7.3

9.6

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

8-91




830,330
832,031
5.1

835,471
835,106
839,721
843,101
845,350
844,388
845,341
846,585
848,805
851,018
854,563
861,132

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 14, 1993

12

Gross Dom estic Product
Seasonally Adjusted

Trillions of Dollars

Trillions of Dollars

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
P ercen tages are annual rates of chan ge for periods indicated.

Prepared by Federal R eserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Domestic Product in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-88

3-88

3-88

2.5

4-88

3.2

3.9

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91

2-90

Billions of Dollars
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92
4,734.5
4,779.7

1-89

3.2

3.5

3.2

2-89

2.9

3.0

2.5

1.8

3-89

2.3

2.2

1.7

0.9

4-89

2.1

2.1

1.6

1.1

0.7

1.5

1-90

2.2

2.2

1.9

1.5

1.4

2.2

2.8

2-90

2.1

2.0

1.7

1.4

1.3

1.8

1.9

1.0

3-90

1.7

1.6

1.2

0.9

0.7

0.9

0.7

-0.3

-1.6

4-90

1.1

0.9

0.6

0.2

-0.1

-0.1

-0.5

-1.6

-2.8

-3.9

1-91

0.7

0.5

0.2

-0.2

-0.5

-0.6

-1.0

-1.9

-2.9

-3.5

-3.0

2-91

0.8

0.6

0.3

0.0

-0.2

-0.3

-0.5

-1.2

-1.7

-1.8

-0.7

1.7

3-91

0.8

0.7

0.4

0.1

-0.1

-0.1

-0.3

-0.8

-1.2

-1.0

-0.1

1.5

1.2

4-91

0.8

0.7

0.4

0.2

0.0

0.0

-0.2

-0.6

-0.9

-0.7

0.1

1.2

0.9

0.6

1-92

0.9

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.2

-0.2

-0.3

-0.1

0.7

1.6

1.6

1.7

2.9

2-92

1.0

0.9

0.7

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.0

-0.1

0.1

0.8

1.6

1.6

1.7

2.2

1.5

3-92

1.1

1.0

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.3

0.3

0.5

1.2

1.9

1.9

2.1

2.6

2.5

3.4

4-92

1.3

1.2

1.1

0.9

0.9

1.0

0.9

0.7

0.7

1.0

1.6

2.3

2.4

2.6

3.1

3.2

4.1

4.7

1-93

1.3

1.2

1.1

0.9

0.9

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.7

1.0

1.5

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.7

2.6

3.0

2.8

0.9

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

4,817.6
4,839.0
0.0

4,839.0
4,856.7
4,890.8
4,902.7
4,882.6
4,833.8
4,796.7
4,817.1
4,831.8
4,838.5
4,873.7
4,892.4
4,933.7
4,990.8
5,002.5

First quarter data are preliminary estivates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 28, 1993

13

Im plicit Price Deflator for GDP
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1987

1988

1989

1990

Percent

1991

1992

1993

Prepared by Federal R eserve Bank of St. Louis

Implicit Price Deflator
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
2-88

3-88

3-88

5.1

4-88

4.5

3.9

1-89

4.8

4.6

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1987 = 100
1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92
104.5
105.5

5.4

106.9

2-89

4.7

4.6

5.0

4.6

3-89

4.5

4.4

4.6

4.2

3.8

4-89

4.4

4.3

4.4

4.0

3.7

3.7

1-90

4.4

4.3

4.4

4.1

4.0

4.1

4.4

2-90

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.6

3-90

4.5

4.4

4.5

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.6

4.7

4.7

4-90

4.4

4.3

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.3

4.5

4.5

4.3

3.9

1-91

4.5

4.4

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.5

4.6

4.7

4.6

4.6

5.3

2-91

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.2

4.4

3.5

3-91

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.0

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.0

3.8

3.7

2.9

2.4

4-91

4.1

4.1

4.1

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.5

3.4

2.8

2.4

2.4

1-92

4.1

4.0

4.0

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.4

3.3

2.8

2.6

2.7

3.1

2-92

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.3

3.2

2.8

2.6

2.7

2.9

2.7

3-92

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.3

3.2

3.0

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.4

2.0

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.3

2.2

2.3
3.3
4-92

108.1
109.1
110.1
111.3
4.8

112.6
113.9
115.0
116.5
117.5
118.2
118.9
119.8
120.6
121.2

4-92

3.8

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.2

3.1

3.0

1-93

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.4

3.2

3.1

3.0

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.8

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

121.9
122.9

First quarter data are prelininary estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 28, 1993

14

Final Sales in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91

2-90

Billions of Dollars
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92
4,710.9

3-88

1.9

4-88

3.0

4.1

1-89

2.5

2.8

1.5

2-89

2.4

2.6

1.8

2.2

3-89

2.3

2.4

1.8

2.0

1.8

4-89

2.0

2.0

1.5

1.6

1.2

0.7

1-90

2.4

2.4

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.5

4.3

2-90

1.9

1.9

1.6

1.6

1.4

1.3

1.6

-1.1

3-90

1.7

1.7

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.0

1.1

-0.5

4-90

1.5

1.4

1.1

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.6

-0.6

-0.4

-0.9

1-91

1.0

0.9

0.6

0.5

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-1.3

-1.3

-2.0

-3.2

2-91

1.0

1.0

0.7

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.1

-0.8

-0.7

-0.9

-1.0

1.3

3-91

0.9

0.8

0.6

0.5

0.3

0.1

0.0

-0.7

-0.6

-0.8

-0.8

0.4

-0.5

4-91

0.9

0.8

0.5

0.4

0.2

0.1

0.0

-0.6

-0.5

-0.7

-0.6

0.3

-0.3

0.0

1.1

1.0

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.0

0.2

0.2

0.4

1.3

1.4

2.3

4.7

1.0

1.0

0.7

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

1.0

1.0

1.5

2.2

-0.1

1.1

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.7

1.3

1.3

1.8

2.4

1.3

2.8

1.3

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.0

1.0

0.7

0.9

1.0

1.2

1.9

2.0

2.5

3.1

2.6

4.0

5.2

1.2

1.2

1.0

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.7

0.8

1.0

1.5

1.5

1.8

2.2

1.6

2.2

1.9

-1.2

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93

1.1
1.4

4,758.7
4,776.3
4,802.0
4,823.0
4,831.8
4,883.3
4,870.0
4,871.4

0.1

4,860.6
4,821.8
4,837.4
4,831.2
4,830.9
4,886.3
4,884.6
4,918.7
4,981.0
4,965.7

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 28, 1993

Personal Consumption Expenditures in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Initial Quarter

Terainal
Quarter
2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
4-92

3-92

3,170.6

3-88

2.9

4-88

3.5

4.1

1-89

2.4

2.1

0.1

2-89

2.0

1.8

0.6

1.1

3-89

2.2

2.0

1.4

2.0

2.9

4-89

2.0

1.8

1.2

1.6

1.9

0.8

1-90

2.0

1.9

1.4

1.7

2.0

1.5

2.2

2-90

1.8

1.6

1.2

1.4

1.5

1.0

1.1

0.1

3-90

1.8

1.6

1.3

1.5

1.5

1.2

1.3

0.9

1.7

4-90

1.3

1.1

0.7

0.8

0.7

0.3

0.2

-0.5

-0.7

-3.1

1-91

0.9

0.7

0.3

0.3

0.2

-0.2

-0.5

-1.1

-1.5

-3.1

-3.0

2-91

1.0

0.8

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.1

-0.1

-0.5

-0.6

-1.4

-0.5

2.0

3-91

1.0

0.8

0.5

0.6

0.5

0.2

0.2

-0.2

-0.2

-0.7

0.1

1.7

1.5

4-91

0.9

0.8

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.2

0.1

-0.2

-0.2

-0.6

0.0

1.1

0.6

-0.3

1-92

1.2

1.1

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.3

1.0

2.0

2.1

2.4

5.1

2-92

1.1

1.0

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.6

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.8

1.6

1.5

1.5

2.4

3,202.9
3,203.6
3,212.2
3,235.3
3,242.0
3,259.5
3,260.1
3,273.9
3,248.0
3,223.5
3,239.3
3,251.2
3,249.0
3,289.3
-0.1

3,288.5

3-92

1.2

1.1

0.9

1.0

1.0

0.8

0.9

0.7

0.8

0.7

1.2

2.0

1.9

2.1

2.9

1.8

3.7

4-92

1.5

1.4

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.2

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.7

2.4

2.5

2.7

3.4

2.9

4.4

5.1

3,318.4

1-93

1.4

1.4

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.2

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.7

2.2

2.3

2.4

3.0

2-5

3.3

3.1

1.2

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

3,359.9
3,369.9

First quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 28, 1993

15

Residential Fixed Investment in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

3-88

2.7

4-88

3.0

3.3

1-89

0.1

-1.2

-5.4

2-89

-3.0

-4.8

-8.6 -11.7

3-89

-3.9

-5.5

-8.3

-9.7

-7.6

4-89

-4.2

-5.6

-7.7

-8.4

-6.8

-5.9

1-90

-2.9

-3.9

-5.2

-5.2

-2.9

-0.5

-7.4

-6.3

-5.9

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
4-92

3-92

223.5
225.3
222.2
215.4
211.2
208.0
5.3

210.7

-5.9 -15.9

2-90

-4.7

-5.7

-7.1

3-90

-6.9

-8.0

-9.5 -10.2

4-90

-8.6

-9.7 -11.2 -12.0 -12.1 -13.0 -14.7 -20.4 -22.6 -22.4

201.8

-9.9 -10.5 -11.9 -19.5 -22.9

189.1
177.5

1-91

-10.4 -11.6 -13.1 -14.1 -14.4 -15.5 -17.3 -22.1 -24.1 -24.7 -26.9

2-91

-9.1 -10.1 -11.3 -11.9 -12.0 -12.6 -13.7 -17.0 -17.3 -15.3 -11.6

3-91

-7.5

-8.3

-9.2

-9.6

-9.4

-9.6 -10.1 -12.5 -11.8

-8.7

-3.7

10.6

14.4

4-91

-6.2

-6.9

-7.7

-7.9

-7.5

-7.5

-7.7

-9.4

-8.3

-5.0

-0.1

10.9

12.9

11.3

1-92

-4.7

-5.2

-5.8

-5.8

-5.3

-5.0

-4.9

-6.1

-4.7

-1.2

3.6

13.1

15.2

15.6

20.1

2-92

-3.7

-4.1

-4.6

-4.5

-3.9

-3.6

-3.3

-4.2

-2.7

0.6

5.1

13.0

14.6

14.6

16.3

12.6

3-92

-3.4

-3.8

-4.3

-4.2

-3.6

-3.2

-3.0

-3.8

-2.3

0.6

4.4

10.8

11.5

10.8

10.7

6.2

0.2

4-92

-2.0

-2.3

-2.7

-2.5

-1.8

-1.3

-0.9

-1.5

0.1

3.0

6.8

12.7

13.7

13.5

14.1

12.2

11.9

25.1

1-93

-1.9

-2.2

-2.5

-2.3

-1.7

-1.2

-0.9

-1.4

0.1

2.7

6.0

11.0

11.6

11.1

11.1

8.9

7.7

11.7

-0.2

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

164.1
7.0

166.9
172.6
177.3
185.6
191.2
191.3
202.3
202.2

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Hay 28, 1993

Nonresidential Fixed Investment in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91

2-90

Billions of Dollars
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

3-88

2.9

4-88

2.8

2.7

1-89

2.0

1.6

2-89

2.0

1.7

1.3

2.0

3-89

1.6

1.2

0.7

0.9

-0.3

4-89

0.7

0.2

-0.4

-0.7

-2.0

-3.7

1-90

1.4

1.2

0.9

1.0

0.6

1.1

6.2

2-90

0.4

0.0

-0.4

-0.6

-1.2

-1.5

-0.4

-6.6

3-90

1.0

0.7

0.4

0.4

0.1 - 0.2

1.5

-0.7

5.6

4-90

-0.2

-0.5

-0.9

-1.1

-1.6

-1.8

-1.4

-3.8

-2.3

-9.6

529.3

1-91

-1.7

-2.1

-2.7

-3.1

-3.8

-4.3

-4.5

-6.9

-7.1 -12.8 -15.8

507.0

535.2
538.8
0.5

539.5
542.2
541.8
536.7
544.8
535.6
542.9

2-91

-1.8

-2.2

-2.7

-3.1

-3.7

-4.2

-4.2

-6.2

-6.1

-9.7

-9.7

-3.1

3-91

-1.9

-2.3

-2.8

-3.1

-3.6

-4.1

-4.1

-5.7

-5.6

-8.1

-7.6

-3.2

-3.4

4-91

-2.2

-2.6

-3.0

-3.3

-3.8

-4.2

-4.2

-5.6

-5.5

-7.6

-7.0

-3.9

-4.3

-5.2

1-92

-1.8

-2.2

-2.5

-2.8

-3.2

-3.5

-3.5

-4.6

-4.3

-5.9

-5.1

-2.2

-1.9

-1.2

3.0

2-92

-0.8

-1.0

-1.3

-1.4

-1.7

-1.8

-1.7

-2.5

-2.0

-3.0

-1.8

1.2

2.3

4.3

9.4

16.1

3-92

-0.6

-0.8

-1.0

-1.1

-1.4

-1.4

-1.2

-1.9

-1.4

-2.3

-1.1

1.5

2.5

4.0

7.3

9.5

3.1

4-92

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

-0.4

-0.6

-0.6

-0.4

-0.9

-0.4

-1.0

0.2

2.7

3.7

5.1

7.9

j9.5

6.4

9.7

1-93

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.5

0.0

0.7

0.2

1.3

3.7

4.7

6.1

8.6

10.0

8.0

10.6

11.4

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

503.0
498.7
492.1
495.8
514.7
518.7
530.9
545.4

First quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Hay 28, 1993

16

Exports in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

3-88

6.8

4-88

10.3

14.0

1-89

12.1

14.9

15.7

2-89

13.1

15.3

16.0

16.3

3-89

10.5

11.5

10.7

8.3

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91

2-90

Billions of Dollars
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

424.1
438.2
454.5
472.0
0.8

472.9
487.7

4-89

11.0

11.8

11.3

9.9

6.8

13.1

1-90

10.9

11.6

11.2

10.1

8.0

11.9

10.7

2-90

10.4

11.0

10.5

9.4

7.8

10.2

8.8

7.0

3-90

9.2

9.5

8.9

7.8

6.1

7.5

5.7

3.3

500.2
508.7
-0.2

•

508.4
522.6

4-90

9.4

9.7

9.2

8.3

7.0

8.3

7.2

6.0

5.5

11.6

1-91

8.0

8.2

7.5

6.5

5.2

6.0

4.6

3.1

1.9

3.0

-5.0

2-91

8.7

8.9

8.4

7.6

6.6

7.4

6.5

5.7

5.4

7.3

5.2

3-91

8.5

8.7

8.2

7.5

6.5

7.3

6.5

5.8

5.5

7.0

5.5

11.3

6.2

8.3

7.4

11.9

9.7

6.5

9.6

7.4

5.1

7.3

5.1

4.7

0.7

-1.4

5.7

7.6

5.9

5.8

3.5

3.7

9.2

6.1

7.8

6.4

6.4

4.8

5.4

9.0

8.9

5.1

4.9

3.3

3.4

5.0

3.0

-2.6

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93

8.9
8.4
7.8
7.9
7.9

9.0
8.6
7.9
7.9
8.0

8.6
8.2
7.4
7.6
7.6

8.0
7.5
6.8
7.0
7.1

7.2
6.8
6.1
6.3
6.5

7.3

7.9
7.4

6.8

6.6

5.9

6.8

6.2

6.9

6.5

6.8
6.3
5.4
5.8
6.1

6.8
6.-2
5.2
5.7
6.0

7.3
6.0
6.4
6.7

515.9
536.1

16.6

7.4

7.4

7.0

6.5

5.9

6.2

5.7

5.3

5.2

5.7

5.1

6.4

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

544.2
561.4

13.3
7.9

565.4

2.9

563.4
575.9
588.3
584.5

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 28, 1993

Imports in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Initial Quarter

Terminal
Quarter
2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

8.7

4-88

10.2

11.7

1-89

5.0

3.1

-4.8

2-89

5.2

4.0

0.4

541.9

4.6

2.4

6.2

6.5

4.4

2.6

5.2

4.9

3.3

1-90

4.7

4.1

2.6

4.5

4.1

3.0

2.6

2-90

4.8

4.2

3.0

4.7

4.4

3.7

3.9

5.1

3.1

3.1

3.3

1.5

0.1

-0.8

-3.6

-3.1

-4.4

-7.4 -11.6 -14.6

-0.2

-0.7

-2.1

-3.3

-0.6

15.6

1.4

5.0

16.4

17.1

2-91

1.3
2.4

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
4-92

550.5

5.4

1-91

3-92

5.8

5.1

3.0

2-92

534.3

4-89

4-90

1-92

540.9

3-89

4.4

4-91

526.1

3-88

3-90

3-91

3.9
2.4
0.6
1.9

2.8
1.3
-0.6
0.9

4.1

3.8

2.2

1.6

0.7

0.0

-0.9

-2.0

1.6

1.1

0.3

555.0
558.6
565.6
567.7
555.3

-8.5

533.8
553.5
575.8

3-91

3.5

3.1

2.3

3.0

2.7

2.3

2.1

2.0

1.4

4-91

3.5

3.1

2.5

3.1

2.9

2.5

2.4

2.4

1.9

2.0

4.8

12.2

10.5

4.2

2.5

3.2

2.9

2.6

2.5

2.1

2.2

4.5

9.9

8.1

3.9

3.5

3.9

3.4

4.0

3.9

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.6

3.9

6.1

10.9

9.7

7.4

9.0

14.7

4.6

4.1

4.8

4.7

4.5

4.6

4.8

4.8

5.2

7.3

11.5

10.7

9.2

10.9

14.8

14.8

4.6

4.2

4.8

4.7

4.6

4.7

4.9

4.9

5.3

7.1

10.7

9.9

8.5

9.5

11.6

10.1

5.7

5.2

5.0

4.6

5.2

5.2

5.1

5.3

5.5

5.5

5.9

7.7

10.8

10.2

9.0

10.0

11.7

10.7

8.8

12.0

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93

3.5
4.2
4.8
4.8

3.2

2.5

581.8
586.8
607.3
628.6
637.3
655.6

First quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 28, 1993

Government Purchases of Goods and Services in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Initial Quarter

Terminal
Quarter
2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

3-88

-0.9

4-88

2.0

5.0

1-89

0.8

1.6

-1.6

2-89

1.9

2.8

1.8

3-89

2.4

3.2

2.6

4.9

4.5

4-89

2.0

2.6

2.0

3.3

2.3

0.2

1-90

2.6

3.2

2.9

4.0

3.6

3.2

6.4

2-90

2.4

2.9

2.6

3.5

3.0

2.5

3.7

1.1

3-90

1.9

2.3

1.9

2.5

2.0

1.4

1.8

-0.4

-2.0

4-90

2.3

2.7

2.4

3.0

2.7

2.3

2.8

1.7

2.0

6.1

1-91

2.4

2.7

2.5

3.0

2.7

2.4

2.8

2.0

2.3

4.4

2.8

2-91

2.2

2.5

2.2

2.7

2.4

2.1

2.4

1.6

1.7

3.0

1.5

0.2

3-91

1.9

2.1

1.8

2.2

1.8

1.5

1.7

1.0

0.9

1.7

0.2

-1.0

-2.3

4-91

1.5

1.7

1.4

1.7

1.4

1.0

1.1

0.4

0.3

0.7

-0.6

-1.7

-2.6

1-92

1.5

1.7

1.4

1.7

1.4

1.1

1.2

0.5

0.5

0.9

-0.1

-0.9

-1.2

-0.7

1.7

2-92

1.3

1.5

1.2

1.5

1.2

0.9

0.9

0.4

0.3

0.6

-0.3

-0.9

-1.2

-0.8

0.2

1-92

2-92

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
4-92

3-92

883.7
894.#
890
5.3

:

902.3
912.2
912.6
926.8
929.4
924.8
938.5
945.1
945.6
940.2
-3.0

933.1
937.0
-1.2

934.2

3-92

1.5

1.6

1.4

1.6

1.4

1.1

1.2

0.7

0.6

1.0

0.3

-0.1

-0.2

0.3

1.4

1.3

3.8

4-92

1.3

1.4

1.2

1.4

1.1

0.8

0.9

0.4

0.3

0.6

-0.1

-0.5

-0.6

-0.3

0.4

0.0

0.6

-2.6

1-93

0.8

0.9

0.6

0.8

0.5

0.2

0.2

-0.3

-0.4

-0.2

-0.9

-1.4

-1.6

-1.5

-1.2

-1.9

-2.1

-5.0

-7.3

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

943.0
936.8
919.3

First quarter data are preliminary estimates.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 28, 1993

Corporate Profits
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter

2-88

3-88

3-88

1.2

4-88

7.9

15.0

1-89

1.9

2.3

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91

2-90

Billions of Dollars
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92
365.3
378.3

-9.1

369.4

2-89

1.6

1.7

-4.4

3-89

-1.5

-2.2

-7.3

-6.4 -12.9

4-89

-1.8

-2.4

-6.3

-5.3

-8.2

-3.1

1-90

0.5

0.4

-2.3

-0.5

-0.8

5.8

15.6

2-90

2.7

2.9

1.0

3.1

3.8

10.1

17.3

19.1

3-90

-1.6

-1.9

-4.1

-3.3

-4.0

-1.7

-1.2

-8.6 -29.9

4-90

-2.3

-2.6

-4.6

-4.0

-4.7

-3.0

-3.0

-8.5 -19.7

-8.2

1-91

-1.5

-1.7

-3.4

-2.7

-3.2

-1.4

-1.1

-4.9 -11.8

-1.0

6.7

2-91

-1.6

-1.8

-3.4

-2.7

-3.1

-1.6

-1.4

-4.4

-9.6

-1.6

1.9

-2.6

3-91

-2.0

-2.2

-3.7

-3.1

-3.5

-2.3

-2.2

-4.8

-9.0

-2.9

-1.1

-4.7

-6.8

4-91

-1.4

-1.6

-2.8

-2.2

-2.5

-1.3

-1.0

-3.2

-6.5

-1.0

0.9

-1.0

-0.1

7.1

1-92

1.4

1.4

0.5

1.3

1.4

2.9

3.6

2.2

0.0

6.1

9,2

9.8

14.3

26.7

49.8

2-92

1.6

1.6

0.8

1.6

1.6

3.1

3.7

2.5

0.6

5.9

8.4

8.8

11.8

18.9

25.2

3-92

0.6

0.6

-0.3

0.4

0.3

1.5

2.0

0.7

-1.2

3.2

4.9

4.6

6.1

9.6

10.5

-5.1 -13.9

4-92

3.7

3.8

3.2

4.0

4.3

5.8

6.5

5.7

4.5

9.2

11.6

12.3

15.0

20.0

23.5

15.7

21.7

72.1

1-93

3.7

3.8

3.2

4.0

4.2

5.6

6.3

5.5

4.4

8.6

10.7

11.2

13.3

17.1

19.2

12.6

15.3

33.5

3.5

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

0.5

369.9
357.3
354.5
367.6
384.0
351.4
344.0
349.6
347.3
341.2
347.1
384.0
388.4

4.7

374.1
428.5
432.2

Corporate profits with capital consumption and inventory valuation adjustments. First quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 28, 1993

18

Gross Saving as a P ercent of GDP
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Total saving equals private saving (personal saving plus business saving) plus governm ent surplus or deficit.
Prepared by Federal R eserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Private Saving
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91

2-90

Billions of Dollars
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92
797.0

3-88

0.0

4-88

4.5

9.2

1-89

5.0

7.6

6.0

2-89

1.8

2.3

-0.9

-7.4

3-89

1.4

1.8

-0.6

-3.7

0.1

814.8
826.7
811.0
811.2

4-89

2.6

3.2

1.7

0.3

4.4

8.9

1-90

4.2

4.9

4.1

3.7

7.6

11.6

828.6
14.4

856.9

2-90

5.0

5.8

5.2

5.1

8.4

11.4

12.7

11.0

3-90

1.3

1.5

0.4

-0.5

1.0

1.2

-1.2

-8.2 -24.1

4-90

3.1

3.4

2.7

2.2

3.9

4.7

3.7

0.4

879.5

-4.5

820.9
20.1

859.3

1-91

4.1

4.5

4.0

3.7

5.4

6.3

5.8

3.8

1.5

17.4

14.8

2-91

4.0

4.4

3.9

3.7

5.2

5.9

5.4

3.7

2.0

12.5

8.9

3.4

3-91

3.3

3.5

3.0

2.8

4.0

4.4

3.8

2.2

0.5

7.8

4.0

-1.0

-5.2

4-91

4.7

5.0

4.7

4.6

5.8

6.5

6.2

5.1

4.1

11.0

8.8

6.9

8.6

1-92

4.8

5.1

4.8

4.7

5.9

6.5

6.3

5.3

4.5

10.2

8.4

6.8

8.0

15.3

6.7

2-92

5.0

5.3

5.0

5.0

6.1

6.6

6.4

5.6

4.9

9.9

8.3

7.0

7.9

12.7

7.3

7.8

3-92

5.3

5.6

5.4

5.3

6.4

6.9

6.8

6.0

5.5

9.9

8.6

7.6

8.4

12.1

8.3

9.0

10.3

4-92

4.3

4.6

4.3

4.2

5.1

5.5

5.2

4.4

3.8

7.5

6.0

4.8

5.0

7.2

3.2

2.1

-0.6 -10.5

1-93

4.9

5.1

4.9

4.8

5.7

6.1

5.9

5.2

4.7

8.2

6.9

6.0

6.4

8.4

5.5

5.1

4.3

1.4

14.9

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

889.4
896.9
884.9
24.5

934.8
950.1
968.1
992.1
965.0
999.0

First quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Hay 28, 1993

19

B usiness Productivity and Com pensation
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1987

1988

1989

1990

Percent

1991

1992

1993

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Business Sector Output per Hour
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1982 = 100
1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92
110.5

3-88

1.5

4-88

0.7

0.0

1-89

-0.4

-1.3

-2.5

2-89

-0.4

-1.0

-1.4

-0.4

3-89

-0.7

-1.2

-1.6

-1.1

-1.8

4-89

-0.5

-0.9

-1.1

-0.6

-0.7

0.4

1-90

-0.4

-0.7

-0.8

-0.4

-0.4

0.4

0.4

2-90

0.0

-0.2

-0.2

0.3

0.5

1.2

1.7

3.0

3-90

-0.1

-0.3

-0.4

0.0

0.1

0.5

0.6

0.7

-1.4

4-90

-0.1

-0.3

-0.4

-0.1

0.0

0.4

0.4

0.4

-0.9

-0.4

1-91

-0.3

-0.4

-0.5

-0.2

-0.2

0.1

0.0

-0.1

-1.1

-0.9

-1.5

2-91

-0.1

-0.2

-0.3

0.0

0.0

0.3

0.3

0.3

-0.4

0.0

0.2

1.8

3-91

0.1

-0.1

-0.1

0.2

0.2

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.1

0.5

0.7

1.8

1.8

4-91

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.5

0.5

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.6

1.0

1.4

2.3

2.6

3.3

1-92

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.8

0.9

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.1

1.5

1.9

2.7

3.0

3.7

4.0

2-92

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.8

0.9

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.1

1.4

1.8

2.4

2.6

2.8

2.5

110.5
109.8
109.7
109.2
109.3
109.4
110.2
109.8
109.7
109.3
109.8
110.3
111.2
112.3
112.6

1.1

113.5

3-92

0.7

0.7

0.7

1.0

1.1

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.3

1.7

2.0

2.5

2.7

2.9

2.8

2.1

3.2

4-92

0.9

0.9

0.9

1.2

1.3

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.6

2.0

2.3

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.1

2.9

3.8

4.3

1-93

0.9

0.8

0.9

1.1

1.2

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.5

1.8

2.0

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.1

2.5

2.1

0.0

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92




114.7
114.7

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 6, 1993

20

Net Federal Debt
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terainal
Quarter

Billions of
Dollars

Initial Quarter
1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92
2,021.2

2-88

6.7

3-88

7.5

8.3

4-88

6.6

6.6

4.9

1-89

6.7

6.7

6.0

7.1

2-89

6.5

6.5

5.8

6.3

5.6

2,062.0
2,086.6
2,122.5
2,151.7
2,190.8

3-89

6.7

6.7

6.2

6.7

6.5

7.5

4-89

7.0

7.0

6.7

7.2

7.3

8.1

8.7

1-90

7.9

8.1

8.1

8.7

9.1

10.3

11.8

15.0

2-90

8.3

8.5

8.6

9.2

9.6

10.6

11.7

13.2

11.5

3-90

8.7

8.9

9.0

9.6

10.0

10.9

11.8

12.8

11.7

11.9

4-90

9.1

9.4

9.5

10.1

10.5

11.3

12.1

13.0

12.3

12.7

13.6

1-91

9.1

9.3

9.4

10.0

10.3

11.0

11.6

12.2

11.5

11.5

11.3

9.1

2-91

9.3

9.5

9.7

10.1

10.5

11.1

11.6

12.1

11.6

11.6

11.5

10.5

11.8

3-91

9.8

10.0

10.2

10.7

11.0

11.7

12.2

12.7

12.3

12.5

12.6

12.3

13.9

16.1

4-91

9.8

10.0

10.1

10.6

10.9

11.5

11.9

12.3

12.0

12.0

12.0

11.7

12.5

12.9

2,236.9
2,316.3
2,380.4
2,448.3
2,527.5
2,583.4
2,656.6
2,757.6
2,822.2

9.7

9.9

10.1

10.2

10.7

11.0

11.5

11.9

12.2

11.9

12.0

12.0

11.7

12.3

12.5

10.7

11.7

2-92

10.1

10.3

10.4

10.9

11.1

11.6

12.0

12.3

12.1

12.1

12.2

11.9

12.5

12.6

11.5

12.4

13.2

3-92

10.1

10.3

10.4

10.8

11.0

11.5

CO
rH
iH

2,901.1

1-92

12.1

11.8

11.8

11.8

11.6

12.0

12.0

11.0

11.5

11.4

9.6

4-92

9.9

10.1

10.2

10.5

10.8

11.2

11.5

11.7

11.4

11.4

11.3

11.0

11.3

11.2

10.3

10.4

10.0

8.5

7.4

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

2,992.5
3,061.7
3,116.5

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Hay 28, 1993

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT
(billions of dollars)
Seasonally Adjusted End of Month Totals
Gross
federal debt

Federal debt held
by agencies
and trusts

Net
federal debt

Federal debt held
by Federal
Reserve Banks

Federal debt held
by private
investors

Federal debt h
by foreign
investors

1988 March
June
September
December

2487.7
2548.8
2613.8
2673.0

499.0
528.4
552.2
584.4

1988.5
2021.2
2062.0
2086.6

220.9
227.1
232.3
231.7

1765.0
1796.5
1830.5
1855.1

331.0
343.3
348.5
363.1

1989 March
June
September
December

2738.8
2801.7
2869.3
2942.2

617.4
650.6
679.0
701.9

2122.5
2151.7
2190.8
2236.9

232.8
231.4
223.6
221.4

1886.9
1919.9
1967.3
2013.2

374.9
367.3
398.3
392.5

1990 March
June
September
December

3048.3
3146.3
3246.4
3353.0 '

734.2
766.9
799.0
820.6

2316.3
2380.4
2448.3
2527.5

223.9
231.1
235.5
251.3

2096.5
2153.8
2217.0
2286.0

383.8
389.3
406.9
419.9

1991 March
June
September
December

3460.5
3541.4
3680.1
3787.6

880.5
886.3
923.9
958.5

2583.4
2656.6
2757.6
2822.2

253.0
255.0
268.0
272.1

2339.8
2411.3
2500.1
2560.4

427.2
436.2
443.7
452.3

1992 March
June
September
December

3876.1
3988.9
4081.1
4160.9

978.8
998.6
1021.1
1036.0

2901.1
2992.5
3061.7
3116.5

274.0
277.0
300.1
291.7

2640.9
2727.5
2777.5
2836.6

471.6
492.2
502.1
509.4

Columns may not add because each component is seasonally adjusted separately. Gross federal debt equals debt held by agencies and trusts plus net federal debt.
Net federal debt equals debt held by Federal Reserve banks plus debt held by private investors (which includes debt r eld by foreign investors). Sources: Original
data may be found in the Treasury Bulletin and also in the Federal Reserve Bulletin; seasonally adjusted series prepared by this Bank.
Data have been revised to reflect changed seasonal adjustment factors.




21

FE D E R A L G O V E R N M E N T B U D G E T S
(b illio n s o f d o lla rs, q u arterly to ta ls s e a s o n a lly a d ju ste d at an n u al ra te s)

Quarters

Receipts
National
income accounts
budget

Expenditures
National
Cyclically
income accounts
adjusted
budget
budget

Cyclically
adjusted
budget

Surplus or d e fic it(-)
National
Cyclically
income accounts
adjusted
budget
budget

1985 1
2
3
4

797.8
758.6
794.3
803.6

819.3
780.7
811.8
822.0

947.7
964.9
976.3
990.8

953.0
964.4
991.3
1012.6

-149.9
-206.3
-182.0
-187.2

-133.7
-18 3.7
-179.5
-190.6

1986 1
2
3
4

809.4
814.2
828.2
856.8

816.4
832.2
852.1
875.5

992.7
1038.0
1047.9
1034.3

1001.4
1045.2
1032.4
1038.7

-183.3
-223.8
-219.7
-177.5

-185.0
-213.0
-180.3
-163.2

1987 1
2
3
4

858.4
928.6
924.5
943.5

875.1
938.1
927.2
930.0

1048.1
1058.9
1059.0
1096.3

1057.4
1060.4
1065.6
1103.0

-189.7
-130.3
-134.5
-152.7

-182.3
-122.3
-138.4
-173.0

1988 1
2
3
4

940.5
970.4
977.8
1000.6

924.9
949.5
953.0
971.4

1098.0
1105.0
1097.3
1135.5

1098.0
1111.4
1098.2
1156.1

-157.5
-134.6
-119.5
-134.9

-173.1
-161.9
-145.2
-184.7

1989 1
2
3
4

1050.9
1064.5
1053.6
1068.3

1014.3
1032.2
1020.2
1035.4

1160.8
1174.2
1181.5
1209.8

1181.0
1187.3
1182.0
1208.2

-110.0
-109.7
-128.0
-141.5

-16 6.7
-155.1
-161.8
-172.8

1990 1
2
3
4

1086.7
1109.6
1119.9
1113.3

1061.7
1093.4
1116.0
1132.1

1254.5
1266.5
1265.5
1307.9

1252.2
1275.4
1273.6
1311.2

-167.8
-156.9
-145.6
-194.6

-190.5
-182.0
-157.6
-179.1

1991 1
2
3
4

1114.6
1117.3
1127.7
1129.4

1160.1
1173.7
N.A.
N.A.

1264.4
1329.4
1348.7
1388.1

1257.9
1319.3
N.A.
N.A.

-149.9
-212.2
-22 1.0
-25 8.7

- 97.8
-145.6
N.A.
N.A.

1992 1
2
3
4

1143.3
1149.8
1155.4
1193.1

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

1432.5
1452.7
1459.8
1488.6

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

-289.2
-302.9
-304.4
-295.5

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

1993 1

1213.5

N.A.

1487.0

N.A.

-273.5

N.A.

N.A. — Not Available
Fiscal years

Estimates

Actual
1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

Total budget
Receipts
Outlays
Surplus or deficit ( - )

$

734.1 $
946.4

$ -21 2.3

769.1 $ 854.1 $ 909.0 $ 990.7 $ 1031.3 $ 1054.3 $ 1091.6
990.3
1003.9
1064.1
1143.2
1252.7
1323.8
1381.8

$-221.2 $ -149.8 $ -1 5 5 .2 $ -1 5 2 .5 $ -2 2 1 .4 $ -2 6 9 .5 $ - 290.2

$ 1147.6 $ 1230.3
1474.9
1522.7
$ --32 7.3

$ -2 9 2 .4

Calendar years

National income accounts
budget
Receipts
Expenditures

Surplus or deficit(-)

$

788.6 $ 827.2 $ 913.8 $ 972.3 $ 1059.3 $ 1107.4 $ 1122.2 $ 1160.4
1028.2
969.9
1065.6
1109.0
1181.6
1273.6
1332.7
1458.4

$ -18 1.4

$-201.0 $ -151.8 $ -1 3 6 .6 $ -1 2 2 .3 $ -1 6 6 .2 $ -2 1 0 .4 $ -2 9 8 .0

Cyclically adjusted budget
Receipts
Expenditures

Surplus or deficit(-)

$

808.5 $ 844.1 $ 917.6 $ 949.7 $ 1025.5 $ 1100.8
980.3
1029.4
1071.6
1115.9
1189.6
1278.1

$ -171.9

$ -1 8 5 .4

$ -154.0 $ -1 6 6 .2

$-164.1

$ -1 7 7 .3

Fiscal years refer to the budget year which runs from October 1 through September 30.
Total budget outlays include federal entities that are off-budget.
Estimates from OMB’s Budget Baselines, Historical Data, and Alternatives for the Future (January 6, 1993).
Cyclically adjusted budget data are in process of revision.
Totals may not add due to rounding.
Source: Office of Management and Budget and U.S. Department of Commerce.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis




22

Government Deficit(- ) / Surplus(+)
Seasonally Adjusted
Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

National income accou n ts basis
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Federal Defense Expenditures
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91

2-90

Billions of Dollars
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92___________
294.0

3-88

-1.1

4-88

1.4

3.9

1-89

-0.6

-0.3

-4.4

2-89

1.2

1.9

0.9

6.6

3-89

2.8

3.8

3.8

8.2

296.8
293.5
298.2
305.3

9.9

302.5

1.7

2.3

1.9

4.1

2.9

-3.6

1-90

3.2

4.0

4.0

6.2

6.0

4.2

12.6

311.6
312.9

2-90

3.0

3.6

3.6

5.3

4.9

3.3

7.0

1.7

3-90

2.0

2.4

2.2

3.4

2.7

1.0

2.6

-2.0

-5.6

4-90

3.7

4.3

4.4

5.7

5.5

4.7

6.8

5.0

6.7

20.6

1-91

4.5

5.0

5.2

6.4

6.4

5.8

7.8

6.7

8.4

16.2

11.9

2-91

3.4

3.8

3.8

4.8

4.5

3.8

5.1

3.7

4.2

7.6

1.7

-7.6

3-91

2.7

3.1

3.0

3.8

3.5

2.7

3.6

2.2

2.3

4.4

-0.5

-6.2

-4.8

4-91

1.9

2.1

2.0

2.6

2.2

1.4

2.0

0.6

0.4

1.6

-2.6

-7.0

-6.8

-8.7

1-92

1.7

1.9

1.7

2.2

1.8

1.1

1.6

0.3

0.1

1.1

-2.4

-5.7

-5.0

-5.1

-1.4

2-92

1.4

1.6

1.4

1.9

1.5

0.8

1.2

0.0

-0.2

0.6

-2.4

-5.0

-4.4

-4.2

-1.9

-2.4

3-92

1.9

2.1

2.0

2.5

2.2

1.5

2.0

1.0

0.9

1.8

-0.6

-2.6

-1.5

-0.7

2.1

3.9

10.5

4-92

1.7

1.9

1.8

2.2

1.9

1.3

1.7

0.8

0.7

1.4

-0.8

-2.5

-1.6

-0.9

1.1

2.0

4.2

1-93

0.7

0.8

0.6

0.9

0.5

1
o
I-*

4-89

0.2

-0.8

-1.0

-0.5

-2.6

-4.3

-3.8

-3.7

-2.7

-3.0

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

308.4
323.2
332.4
325.9
321.9
314.7
313.6
311.7
319.6
-1.7

318.2

-3.2

-9.3 -16.4

304.3

2-92

3-92

4-92

First quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 28, 1993

23

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Post Office Box 442
St. Louis, Missouri 63166

Su b scrib er:

Please include address label with
subscription inquiries or address changes.

Federal Nondefense Expenditures
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

3-88

-3.4

4-88

7.2

18.8

1-89

9.5

16.6

14.4

2-89

8.1

12.2

9.1

4.1

3-89

6.5

9.1

6.0

2.1

0.1

4-89

7.8

10.2

8.2

6.2

7.3

15.0

1-90

9.1

11.3

9.8

8.7

10.3

15.8

16.6

2-90

8.5

10.3

8.9

7.9

8.9

11.9

10.5

4.6

3-90

7.7

9.2

7.8

6.8

7.3

9.2

7.4

3.0

1.5

4-90

8.1

9.5

8.4

7.5

8.1

9.8

8.5

6.0

6.6

1-91

5.2

6.1

4.8

3.7

3.6

4.2

2.2

-1.2

-3.0

2-91

7.4

8.4

7.4

6.7

7.0

8.1

6.9

5.1

5.2

6.5

3.9

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
4-92

3-92

803.3
838.7
867.3
876.0
876.2
907.3
942.9
953.6
957.1
12.0

984.7

-5.2 -19.7

932.0
34 .4

1,003.5

3-91

7.6

8.5

7.6

7.0

7.3

8.3

7.3

5.8

6.1

7.3

5.7

21 .4

9.6

4-91

8.4

9.3

8.6

8.1

8.5

9.4

8.8

7.7

8.2

9.6

9.0

20 .7

14.4

19.4

1-92

9.0

9.9

9.3

8.9

9.3

10.3

9.8

8.9

9.6

11.0

10.8

20 .1

15.6

18.7

18.1

1,026.8
1,073.4
1,118.9

2-92

8.9

9.8

9.2

8.8

9.2

10.1

9.6

8.8

9.4

10.6

10.3

17 .6

13.7

15.1

13.0

8.1

3-92

8.4

9.2

8.5

8.1

8.4

9.2

8.7

7.9

8.3

9.1

8.7

14 .4

10.8

11.0

8.4

3.8

-0.3

4-92

8.5

9.3

8.7

8.3

8.6

9.3

8.9

8.2

8.5

9.4

9.0

13 .9

10.8

11.0

9.0

6.2

5.2

11.0

1-93

8.3

9.0

8.4

8.1

8.3

8.9

8.5

7.8

8.1

8.8

8.5

12 .6

9.8

9.9

8.1

5.7

4.9

7.6

4.3

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1,141.0
1,140.2
1,170.4
1,182.7

First quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 28, 1993

24