Full text of National Economic Trends : June 1987
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National Economic Trends June 1987 The nation’s output of goods and services surged upward in the first quarter of this year: real GNP rose at a 4.8 percent annual rate, well above its 1.5 percent rate of growth over the previous three quarters. As with the relatively strong 3.8 percent growth rate in the first quarter of last year, the recent strength has been discounted by many analysts because it largely was associated with an unsustainable inventory accumulation instead of sales to consumers, business, govern ment or foreigners. During the first quarter of this year, real final sales (GNP minus the change in business inventory, in 1982 prices) fell at a 2.7 percent rate; such sales fell at a 1.3 percent rate in the first quarter of last year. Changes in federal farm loan activity through the Commodity Credit Corporation distort these sales data, but even when one allows for these distortions, final sales show no growth in the first quarter of this year and only a 1.6 percent rate of increase in the first quarter of last year. Despite the relatively slow pace of sales growth, this year’s inventory ac cumulation may not have the same unfavorable implications for output growth as last year’s. In the first quarter of 1986, the change in non-farm business inventory was $37 billion (1982 prices), which followed an annual accumulation rate of $16.1 billion in the fourth quarter of 1985; as a result, business inventory was relatively high compared with sales in the first quarter of 1986. Thus, a reduced pace of production growth was not out of line with the inventory position in early 1986. This year, however, the change in non-farm business inventory of $32.8 billion (1982 prices) followed sizeable reductions in inventory in the third and fourth quarters of 1986, which left inventory relatively low compared with sales, even in the first quarter. Thus, the case for a sharp slowing in output due to excessive inventory building is not as strong in 1987 as it was last year. The relatively lower level of inventory relative to sales early in 1987 can be seen on the last page of this release. Despite the upward surge in January, the quarterly average ratio of manufac turing and trade inventory to sales was about 1.51 for the first three months of this year, down from 1.55 in the first three months of 1986. views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System. —John A. Tatom Xfl TAt r. TVTI TAM FMPLHYMFNT COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RAT ES OF CHANGE T ERMI NAL I N I T I A L MOWTH T HOUSANDS -MOaTH_______________________________ _____________ _________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________ _________ OF PERSONS 3 8 7 4-87 1 8 7 2 8 7 1 2 8 6 2-86 1-86 9 - 8 6 10-86 1 1-86 3-86 5-86 8-86 4-86 6-86 7-86 10-85 11-85 12-85 11- 85 107.978 2.1 1 0 8 » 149 2.0 1.9 1-86 4.1 5.2 8.6 2. 1 2.2 2.3 -3.6 CD O' 12- 85 108t892 108*557 108.807 3-86 2.3 2.3 2.5 -0.5 2.8 *-86 2.2 2.2 2.3 0.3 2.3 1.8 108*969 5-86 2.2 2.2 2.3 0.8 2.3 2.0 2.2 109,165 6-86 2.5 2.6 2.7 1.6 2.9 3.0 3.6 5.0 7-86 2.6 2.7 2.8 1.8 3.0 3.0 3.4 4.0 3.0 8-86 2.5 2.6 2.7 1.9 2.8 2.8 3.1 3.3 2.5 2.0 109,613 109,887 110,067 109,987 9-86 2.2 2.2 2.3 1.5 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.3 1.4 0.5 -0.9 10-86 2.2 2.2 2.3 1.6 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.3 1.6 1.1 0.7 2.3 11- 86 2.3 2.3 2.3 1.7 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.3 1.8 1.5 1.3 2.5 110,192 110,432 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.3 1.7 2. 3 2.2 2.3 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.6 2.4 2.4 2.3 1-87 2. 2.4 2 •* 1.9 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.8 3.0 3.2 4.1 2-87 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.1 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.4 3.1 3.3 3.5 4. 1 12-86 110,637 111,011 111,382 4.1 3-87 2.3 2.3 2.% 1.9 2.* 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 1.9 —0 . 2 <►-87 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.0 2.5 5.1 5-87 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.* 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.4 3.5 3.7 4.0 3.9 3.9 6.0 6.8 6-86 7-fl6 a- f l & 9 - B 6 _ _LHr.a& l i . - Bfc -L2. t Q6 _ 1 - 8 7 2-07 _J-B 7 A -a i 1 1-86 . 4 - 8 6 . 11-85 IN IT IA L 111,368 111,835 112,447 MONTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL JUNE 5* 1987 RESERVE BANK QF S T . LOUIS ____________ PA-YRQLL EMPLOYMENT» _________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RAT ES OF CHANCE T ERMI NAL I N I T I A L MONTH THOUSANDS MONTH_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ QF PERSONS 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-87 9 - 8 6 10-86 11-86 12-86 4-86 1-86 5-86 6-86 7-86 8-86 2-86 3-86 10-85 11-85 12-85 9 8,445 11-85 2.7 12-85 2.6 2.6 98,658 1-86 2.2 2.0 1.4 2-86 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.7 3-86 1.9 1.7 1.4 I .4 1.2 98,914 99,013 99,252 4-86 2.1 2.0 1.8 I .9 2.1 2.9 5-86 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.3 1.7 6-86 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.3 0.4 -0.8 7-86 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.4 1.3 3.4 8-86 1*9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.6 2.7 2.1 9-86 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.9 2.7 3.3 10-86 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 1.9 2.0 2*7 2.5 2.7 2.1 tòó,<m 100,209 11-86 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.5 12-86 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.1 2.2 1.8 IÓ1575ST 1-87 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.9 3.0 4.3 2-87 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.5 2.8 3-87 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.1 2.5 2.1 4-87 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.3 2*\ 2.4 2.4 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 2.8 2.8 3.4 5-87 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.4 2.3 2.4 1.5 l o - a s . JL1-35 12-85 1-86 2-86 3r£6 LZrifr _L-«7 2-«L 3-87 4-87 J5-86 7-86 ____________________________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A l ♦DATA R E V I S E D FROM 1 9 8 ? . P- IÓ0,*Ì4 101 *1 50 101,329 10l»609P 10W732P MONTH______________________________________________________________________________________ P B F t T MT MAf t Y ___________ __________________________________________________________________ ________ ________ _____________________________________________________________________________________________ ________________ ____________ _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________ PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE J UNE 3* 1987 2 BANK OF S T . LOUIS EMPLOYMENT RATIO SCALE M I L L IONS OF RATIO PERSONS SEASONALLY M I LLIONS ADJUSTED OF SCALE PERSONS 125 120 1 15 1 10 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 SOURCE« U.S .D EPA RTM EN T OF LABOR BEG IN NI NG JANUARY 1 0 8 6 , TOTAL EMPLOYMENT DATA INCORPORATE N E I PROCEDURES FOR ES T I M A T IN G MEASURES OF IMM IG RAT ION AND EM IG RAT IO N INC REASING TOTAL EMPLOYMENT BY ABOUT 0 . 3 2 . PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIO DS IN D IC A T E D . LATEST DATA PLOTTED: MAY P R EL IM IN AR Y »DATA REVISED FROM 1 9 8 2 . PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST . LO U IS UNEMPLOYMENT SEASONALLY PERCENT RATE ADJUSTED PERCENT 12.0 . 11.0 10. 10.0 11 9. 9.0 8. 8.0 7. 7.0 6. 6.0 5. 5.0 4. 4.0 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 SOURCE: U .S . 1986 1987 DEPARTMENT OF LABOR PERCENT OF C I V I L I A N LABOR FORCE LATEST DATA PLO TTED: MAY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . L O U IS 3 CONSUMER P R IC E IN D E X FOR A L L URBAN CONSUMERS* SEA S O N A LLY A D JU S T E D _______________________ CQMPOUWDEP ANNUAL R A TES OF CHANCE_______________________ T ERMI NAL MONTH 10-85 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------- I N I T I A L 1-86 12-85 11-85 3-86 2 —86 4-86 5-66 M O N T H ___________________________________________________________________ 19_67«100 7-86 6-86 9-86 8—86 10-86 H -86 1—87 12-86 2-87 4-67 3-87 326.6 11-85 6*5 12-85 5*1 3* 7 1-86 4.8 3.9 2-86 2.7 1.5 0.4 -3.2 3-86 1.2 -0.1 -1.3 -3.9 -4.7 4-86 0.4 -0.7 -1.8 -3 .7 -4.0 -3.3 5-86 0.8 -0.1 -0.9 -2.1 -1.7 -0.2 3.0 327.6 328.7 4.1 327.8 326.5 325.6 326.4 327.8 6-86 1.3 0. 6 0.1 -0.7 0.0 1.6 4.1 5.3 7-86 1.2 0.6 0.2 -0.5 0.1 1.3 2.9 2.8 0.4 8-86 1.3 0.7 0.4 -0.2 0.4 1.4 2.6 2.5 1.1 1.8 327.9 328.4 329.4 9-86 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.8 1.8 2.8 2.8 2.0 2.8 3.7 10-86 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.7 2.7 2.0 2.6 3.0 2.2 11-86 1.7 1.3 1.1 0.8 1.2 2.0 2.8 2.7 2.2 2.7 3.0 2.6 330.0 330.8 2 9 331.4 12-86 i.7 1.4 1.2 0.9 1.3 2.0 2.7 2.6 2.2 2.6 2.8 2.5 2 6 2.2 1-87 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.9 2.6 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.5 3.8 3.9 4 4 5.2 8.3 4.1 4.1 4 6 5.2 6.7 5.2 333.6 335.0 2-87 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.8 2.2 2.8 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.7 3-87 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.4 3.0 3.6 3.7 3.5 3.9 4.2 4.3 4 7 5.2 6.2 5.1 5.1 V— 87 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.6 3.2 3.8 3.8 3.7 4.1 4.4 4.5 4 8 5.2 6.0 5.3 5.3 5.5 5-87 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.7 3.3 3.8 3.9 3.7 4.1 4.3 4.4 4 7 5.0 5.6 4.9 4.9 4.7 4.0 10-85 U-8* 12-8* 1-86 ¿-86 5-86 6-86 7-66 8-86 16-86 11-86 12-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 336.4 337.9 339.0 iN rrrAL-iw nf M E M ftE P BV T E P C T O ' ET ^ UVE BAN* OF ST . LOUIS J UNE 23* 1907 PRODUCER P R I C E INL' EX* F I N I S H E O GOODS - SEAS ONAL LY A D J U S T E D * ___________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RAT ES OF CHANCE__________________________ T ERMI NAL __________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L MONTH__________________________________________________________________________1967 » MONTH 4-67 2-87 3-87 6-86 1-87 2-86 3-66 4-86 5-86 8-86 9- 66 10-86 11-86 12-86 1 0 - 8 5 H - 85 1 2 - 8 5 1-86 7-86 295 * 6 11-85 7.2 12-85 6.5 5.8 1-86 2.7 0.6 2 97.0 295.9 -A .4 2 91.5 2-86 -2.4 -5.4 -10.6 -16.5 3-86 -4.0 —6 . 6 -10.5 - I 3.4 -10.2 4-86 -4.4 -6 .5 -9.4 -11.0 -8.1 -6.1 5-86 -3.0 -4.5 -6.5 -7.0 -3.7 -0.2 6-86 -2.3 -3.6 -5.1 -5.2 -2.1 0.7 4.2 2.5 7-86 -3.0 -4.2 -5.6 -5.8 -3.5 -1.6 —0 . 3 -3.3 288.9 287 *4 288.6 6.0 269.4 -8.8 287.2 286.3 8-86 -2.3 -3.3 -4.4 -4.4 -2.2 -0.5 0.9 -0.7 -2.3 4.7 9-86 -1.8 -2.6 -3.5 -3.4 -1.4 0.1 1.4 0.3 —0 . 4 4.0 3.4 10-86 -1.3 -2.0 -2.6 -2.6 -0 .7 0.7 1.9 l.l 0.7 4.1 3.8 4.2 I .7 1.0 0.7 3.2 2.7 2.3 0.4 -2.2 -2.0 -0.5 0.7 1.6 1.0 0.7 2.7 2.2 1.8 0.6 0.8 -1.6 -1.4 0.1 1.2 2.0 1.5 1.4 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.2 3.1 l.l 1.9 1.4 1.3 -2.5 12-86 -1.0 -1.6 1-87 -0.6 - I . 1 -1.2 0.1 -1.0 -0.6 0.5 1.5 2.2 1.8 1.6 3.2 -0.4 -0.2 1.1 2.0 2.7 2.5 2.5 3.8 0.1 -0.2 0.1 1.3 2.2 2.6 2.6 2.6 3.8 3.7 11-85 12-65 1-66 2-86 3-66 4-66 5-86 6-86 7-86 8-86 3-87 -0 .2 -0.6 4-87 0.3 -0.1 0.5 10-85 -1.0 2 90.2 0.7 -1.8 -0.5 290.1 —0 . 6 -1.2 2-87 289.1 -2.3 11-66 5-87 100 -1.5 2.6 n tT T T A L 291.7 2.4 3.1 0.6 2.6 3.1 3.9 3.1 5.5 3.6 4.3 5.1 5.0 7.2 8.9 3.6 4.2 4.9 4.7 6.0 6.3 3.7 v — 86 i d —66 It~86 12-66 1 -8 7 2 -8 7 3-67 4-67 2.3 1.9 2.9 2.9 3.7 3.7 3.7 2.5 290.4 5.5 291.9 293.2 295.3 296.2 MONTH ♦DATA FOR FOUR MONTHS ACO R E V ! S E P T O R E F L E C T L A T E R E P O R T I N G y re ro m r s v J UN E 4 12* federal 1 987 r e s c e ve bahk ~ q f st . loui s RATIO PRICES SCALE 1 9 6 7 -1 0 0 CO N SU M ER P R IC E IN D E X C P I - U D A TA B E C I N N I N « P E R C E N T A C E S ARE LATES T RATES OF CH ANC E FOR P E R IO D S HOME O T H E R S H IP PRODUCER SCALE BY F E D E R A L RESERVE BANK PRICES OF S T . RATIO SEAS ONA LLY ADJUSTED 1979 PERCENTAGES 1980 1 9 81 ARE AN NU A L DATA P L O T T E D . CO STS. MAY 1967-100 LA T ES T M EA S U R E FO X IN D IC A T E D . PREPARED RATIO SCALI 1 9 6 7 -1 0 0 IS FO R A L L U R BAN C O N SU M E R S ( C f l - U ) . 1 9 8 3 IN C O R P O R A T E A R E N T A L E Q U IV A L E N C E AN N U A L DATA P L O T T E D t RATIO ADJUSTED seasonally RATES 1982 OF C H AN C E 1983 FOR P E R I O D S L O U IS SCALE 1 9 6 7 -1 0 0 1984 1985 1986 1987 IN D IC A T E D . MAY PREPARED 5 BY FEDERA L RES ERV E BA NK OF ST. LOUIS PRODUCER P R IC E IN D E X , F IN IS H E D CONSUMER FOODS - SEASO NALLY A D JU S TE D * _____________________ c ompoun d e d m m i r a t e s of t m w z _____________________________ T ERMI NAL________________________________ _______________________________________ I N I T I A L MONTH__________________________________________________________________________» 9 6 7 » 100 MONTH __________ 1 0 - 8 5 1 i — 85 1 2 - 8 5 1 — 86 2-86 3-86 4-86 5-86 6-86 7 ~96 9-86 9 - 8 6 I Q - 8 6 11*86 1 2 - 8 6 ___ 1 - 8 7 2-87 3-87 4 ^ 87_______________ _ Al-9? 12-85 15*7________________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________________________ 13*3 11*1 1-86 5*3 0*4 -9*2 2-96 -0*2 -5*0 -12*2 - 15*1 ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________ _________________________ _______ 27J « 7_ 270*5 3-86 0*3 -3*3 -7*6 -6.8 2*2 4-86 1*1 -1*6 -4*5 -2*9 3*8 5.5 5-86 3*4 1*5 -0*3 2*0 8*4 11*6 271*7 275*5 18*1 275*9 6-86 3*2 1*5 0*0 1*9 6*7 8*2 9.6 1*8 7-86 4*7 3*4 2*3 4*4 8*7 10*4 12*1 9.3 17.3 8-96 5*9 4*9 4*2 6*2 10*2 11*9 13*6 12*1 17*7 18.1 2 79*6 283*5 283*3 9-96 5*3 4*3 3*6 5*3 8*6 9*7 10*6 8*7 11*2 8.2 -0.8 10-96 5*8 5*0 4*4 6*0 9.0 10*0 10*7 9*3 11*3 9*3 5*2 11*6 11-66 5*1 4*3 3.7 5*1 7.6 8*3 8*7 7*2 8*4 6.2 2*6 4*3 12-96 4*4 3.5 2.9 4*1 6*3 6.7 6 *9 5*3 6*0 3.8 0.5 1*0 -3*9 -5*3 1-87 2,6 1*7 1*0 1*9 3*6 3.8 3*6 1*9 1*9 -0.4 -3.8 -4*5 -9*3 -12*5 -19.2 2-87 2*1 1*2 0.6 1*3 2*9 2.9 2*7 1*1 1*0 -1 .2 -4.0 -4*7 -8*4 -10*2 -12*6 2 85*9 285*3 -2*5 284 *0 2 79*0 -5*5 277*7 279*1 3-07 2*3 1.5 0.9 1*7 3*1 3.2 3*0 1*6 1*5 -0.3 -2.6 -2*9 -5*6 -6.4 -6*7 0*2 6*2 4-97 3*2 2*5 2.0 2*8 4*2 4*3 4*2 3.1 3*2 1.7 -0*2 -0*1 -1*9 -1*8 -0*8 6*2 12*5 19*1 5-87 3*9 3.3 2.8 3*6 5.0 5.2 5.2 4.2 4*4 3.2 l.T 2*0 0*7 1*3 2*6 9.0 14*2 18*5 17*8 10-95 11-95 12-95 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 5-86 6-86 7-86 8-86 9-86 10-86 11-86 12-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-8 7 INITIAL »flA-T-A-FOR F W R 2 7 3 *5- ________________________________ ________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________________________2 7 5 » 9— 283*2 287.1 MONTH NQNTHS AfrP R E V I SES T Q J ^ f F U C T j ^ T E ^R E PO R T! NG_________________ PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF St * L O U I S J UNE 1 2 , 1987_____________________ _________________________ PRODUCER P RI C E I N D E X , F I N I S H E D GOOOS, EXCL UOI NG FOODS - SEASONAL LY A D J US T E D* _____________________________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE_________________________________ T ERMI NAL________________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L MONTH_________________________________________ ________________________________ 1967 MONTH 3-87 4-8 7 1-87 2-87 6-86 7-86 8-06 2-86 3-86 4-86 5-86 9 - 0 6 1 0 - 8 6 1 1 - 0 6 12—86 1-86 10-85 11- 85 12-85 100 300.8 11- 85 5.3 12-85 4*5 3*7 1-86 2*0 0*4 301*7 -2*7 301*0 2 96 *4 2-86 - 3*1 -5*7 -10*1 -16*9 3-86 -5*4 -7*9 -11*4 -15*4 -14*0 4-86 —6 *0 -8*2 -10*9 -13*5 -11*7 -9*4 5-86 -4*9 -6*5 -7*2 -3*6 -8*4 -9.7 292*7 ¿9 0* 3 290*9 2*5 291*5 6-86 —4*0 -5*2 -6*6 -7*4 -4*9 -1*6 2*5 7-86 -5*5 -6*8 -8*2 -9*0 -7*4 -5.6 -4*3 — 7*6 - 1 6 * 7 8-86 -4*9 -6*0 -7.1 -7*7 —6*1 -4.5 -3*2 -5*0 -8*5 2.5 287*1 207*2 0*4 9-86 -4*0 -4*9 -5*8 -6*2 -4*6 -2*9 -1*6 -2*6 -4*2 2*7 5*1 10-06 -3*6 -4*3 -5*1 -5*4 -3*8 -2*3 -1*0 -1*7 -2*8 2*4 3*4 1*7 11-86 -3*1 -3*8 -4*5 —4 * 6 -3*2 -l.T —0 * 6 -1*8 2*3 3*0 1*9 12-86 -2*8 -3*3 -3*9 —4 *0 -2*6 -1.3 -0.2 -0*6 -1*1 2*4 2*0 2*1 2*3 2*5 1-87 -1*6 -2*1 -2*5 -2*5 -l .l 0.3 l.<V 1*3 1*1 4*4 5.3 5.3 6.5 0*0 15*5 2-87 -1*3 -1*8 -2.1 -2*1 -0.7 0.6 1.6 1*5 1*4 4*3 4 *9 4.9 5.7 6*9 9.2 3.3 200 *4 2 80*8 2 89*3 2*1 209 *9 2 93 *4 294.2 3-87 -1*0 -1*3 -1*7 -1*6 -0.3 0.9 1*9 1*0 4*4 4*9 4*9 5 *6 6*5 7.0 4.2 5.0 4-87 —0 * 6 -0*9 -1*2 -1 .1 0.1 1.3 2*2 2.2 4*5 5.1 5.0 5 *6 6.3 7.3 4.7 5.4 5.0 5-87 -0*6 -0*9 -1*2 -l.l 0*1 l.l 2.0 1.9 4*0 4*4 4.3 4*7 5*1 5 *6 3.3 3.3 2.5 -0.8 10-05 11-85 12-05 1-06 6-06 7— 86 0-06 5-d7 4-47 2-06 3-86 4-06 1*9 5-06 9 -8 6 T&-5 S" 11-06 u - u 1-S7 295.4 296*8 2 9 6 *6 » D A T A FOR FOUR HONTHS AGO R E V I S E D T O R E F L E C T L A T E R E P OR T I NG PREPARED BY FED ER AL RESERVE BANK OF S T* L O U IS JUN E 12* 1907 6 INDUSTRIAL RATIO PRODUCTION SCALE RATIO 1977-100 SEASONALLY 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIODS SCALE 1977-100 ADJUSTED 1985 1986 1987 IN D IC A T E D . LATEST DATA PLOTTED» MAY P RE L IM IN AR Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOU IS __________ I N D U S T R I A ! PRODU CTION _______ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL R AT E S OF CHANGE 0 1 CD T ERMI NAL I N I T I A L MONTH 1977 » 100 MONTH_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 3-87 4-87 1-87 2-87 8-86 9 - 8 6 1 0- 8 6 11-86 12- 86 4-66 5-86 6-86 7-86 3-86 1-86 2-86 11-85 12-85 124.8 n-85 12.3 12-85 10.1 8.0 125.6 126. 2 1-86 8.7 6.9 5.9 2-86 4.2 1.6 -1.4 -8.2 3-86 0 .0 -2.9 -6.2 -11.7 4-86 1.8 - 0 . 2 -2.1 -4.7 -2.8 11.2 5-86 0.8 - I .0 -2.7 -4.7 -3.5 2.9 -4.7 6-86 0.7 -0.8 -2.2 -3.8 -2.6 2.0 -2.4 125.3 123.6 -15. 1 124.7 124. 2 124.2 0.0 7-86 1.4 0.1 -1.0 -2.0 -0.8 3.2 0.6 3.4 8-86 1.5 0.3 -0.6 -1.5 -0.3 2.9 1.0 2.9 4.4 1.9 9-86 1.1 0.1 -0.7 -1.5 1 o 124.9 7.0 2.1 0.4 1.7 2.3 0.0 -1.9 0.4 -0.3 -0.9 0.0 2.4 2.1 2.7 1.3 1.0 3.9 10-86 1.4 1.0 125.1 124.9 125.3 126.0 11-86 1.8 1.0 0.3 -0.2 0.7 2.9 1.8 2.9 3.5 2.7 2.9 5.4 6.9 12-86 2.1 1.4 0.9 0.4 1.3 3.4 2.4 3.5 4. 1 3.5 3.9 5.9 6.9 6.9 2.4 -1.9 1-87 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.2 1.0 2.8 1.9 2.8 3.2 2.6 2.7 3.9 3.9 126.7 126.5 127.2 2-87 2.2 1.5 1.1 0.7 1.5 3.2 2.4 3.2 3.6 3.2 3.4 4.5 4.6 3.9 2.4 6.8 3-87 2.1 1.5 1.1 0.7 1.5 3.0 2.3 3.0 3.3 2.9 3.0 3.9 3.9 3.1 1.9 3.9 0.9 4-87 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.6 1.3 2.7 2.0 2.6 2.9 2.5 2.5 3.2 3.1 2.3 1.2 2.2 0.0 -0.9 5-87 2.1 1.6 1.2 0.9 1.6 2.9 2.3 2.9 3.2 2.8 2.9 3.5 3.4 2.9 2.1 3. 1 1.9 2.4 5.8 8-86 9-86 10-86 11-86 12-86 1-87 ¿-8 7 3-67 4-87 lû^fiS l l - fl *> 12-^BS------1 - 6 6 ___2- Bh ___3L=A6___4 - 8 6 T-86 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I N I T I A L P- 127.3 1 2 7 . 2P 1 2 7 . 8P MONTH________________________________________________________________________ PPFl TM T N A R V - PREPARED BY FED ER AL RESERVE 3ANX OF S T . J UNE 16* 1987 7 L O U IS PERSONAL RATIO SCALE TRILLIONS MONTHLY OF DOLLARS TOTALS INCOME AT SEASONALLY AN NU AL RATIO RATES T R I L L IONS ADJUSTED OF SCALE DOLLARS 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 2. 2.8 2. 2.6 2 2.4 2 2.2 . 2.0 2. 1 . 1. 8 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 SOURCEt PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS LATEST DATA PLOTTED: U.S. 1986 1987 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE IN D IC A T E D . MAY PR EL IM IN AR Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOU IS PERSONAL INCOME COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE IN ITIA L 11-85 17-85 1- 9 6 2 - 8 6 3 -8 6 4 - 8 6 5 - 8 6 5.1 12-95 11.2 1 7. 5 1-86 7.2 8 .3 0 - 8 6 9-86 10- 86 11-06 12 -8 6 1-07 2-87 4-87 3,418.0 3,417.4 - 0 . 2 3,435.3 7 .0 7 .7 3. 1 6 . 5 3-86 6 .3 6 . 6 3. 2 5 .0 3. 5 ^ - 86 7.8 8. 3 6 .2 0 . 4 9 . 3 15.5 6.4 6 . 6 * •5 5 .7 5.5 6. 5 - 1 . 9 5 .6 5 . 6 3. 8 4 . 6 4.1 4.3 -0.8 0 . 2 5 .3 3.7 4 . 3 3 .9 4.0 0 .5 1.6 -0 <r 1 2 -8 6 7 -8 6 7 -8 6 3,372.3 11-85 6- 86 6- 8 6 CO 1 fTt 10-85 OOLLARS MONTH 5. 3 3,445. 1 3,486.8 3,481.3 3,481.9 3.1 3,490.8 3,497.9 8-86 5 .0 5 .0 3 .5 4.1 3.7 3.7 1.0 1. 9 2. 8 2.5 9-86 4 . 9 4 . 8 3.5 4 . 0 3.7 3 .7 1.5 2.3 3.0 3.0 3.5 10-86 4 .7 4 . 7 3.5 3 . 9 3.6 3.6 1.8 2.5 3.1 3.1 3 .5 3.4 11-86 4 . 5 * .5 3.* 3 . 7 3.4 3.4 1.0 2.4 2.9 2.0 2.9 2.7 3*507.9 3*517.8 3*523.3 1.9 3*542.7 12-86 4 .7 4 . 7 3. 6 4.0 3.8 3.0 2.4 3.0 3.5 3.6 3.9 4.0 4.3 6.8 1-87 4.7 4 . 7 3.8 4. 1 3.9 3.9 2.7 3.3 3.0 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.6 6.0 5.1 2- 87 5 .3 5.3 4.5 4.8 4.7 4.8 3.8 4.5 5.0 5.3 5.8 6.2 6.9 8.7 9.6 3*557.5 3*597.2 14.2 3*609.1 3-87 5. 2 5 . 2 4 . 4 4.8 4.7 4.8 3.0 4.4 4.9 5.1 5.5 5.9 6.3 7.5 7.7 9.0 4.0 4-87 5 .2 5 .2 4.* 4.8 4.6 4.7 3.9 4.4 4.9 5.0 5.4 5.6 6.0 6.9 6.9 7.5 4.2 4.4 5-87 5 . 0 5.0 4.3 4.6 4.5 4.6 3.8 4.3 4.6 4.8 5. 1 5.3 5.5 6.1 6.0 6.2 3.7 3.5 2.6 10-85 11- 85 2-B6 i - a * V- Qfr 5 - 8 6 6-86 7-36 l£ -£ 6_ 11-86 12-86 *-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 12 - a s . i-Ûfc . in itia l _P - 8-86 _ 2 r 9 6 3*622.1 3*630.OP month PR E L I MI N A RY PREPARED B Y FED ER AL RESERVE BANK OF S T . J UNE 18* 1987 8 L O U IS RETAIL RATIO SALES SCALE BILLIONS 1979 OF RATIO DOLLARS 1980 SEASONALLY 1981 1982 BILLIONS ADJUSTED 1983 1984 1985 SOURCE: PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS LATEST DATA PLOTTED« A P R I L , U .S . 1986 OF SCALE OOLLARS 1987 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE IN D IC A T E D . MAY ADVANCE ES TI MAT E PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST . RET AIL L OU IS SALES ______________________________CQHPOUNPED ANNUAL RATES O f CHANCE______________________________________ T E R M IN A L __________________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L MONTH 10-85 11-85 11-85 12-85 1- 86 2-86 3-86 4- 86 5-86 6-86 7-86 116*412 7.5 117*389 12-85 9*0 10*5 1-86 9*6 10.7 10.8 2-86 5.0 4.1 1.0 -7.8 3-86 3.2 2.2 -0.4 -5.6 -3*3 4-86 4.2 3.5 1.9 -0.9 2*7 9*1 5- 86 5.9 5.6 4.6 3.2 7*1 12*8 16*5 6-66 5.2 4*9 3.9 2*6 5*4 8*5 8*2 0*5 118*393 117*590 117*259 118*113 119*630 119*679 120*541 7-86 5*6 5*4 4*6 3.7 6*1 8*6 8*5 4*7 9*0 8-66 6.7 6*6 6.2 5*5 7*9 10*3 10*6 8*7 13*1 1 7*3 13*3 13*7 17*1 20*9 23*5 25*2 34*8 49*9 9-86 MONTH________________________________________________________________________ MI L L I O N S OF DOLLARS 3- 87 4-8 7 1- 87 2-87 8-86 9 - 8 6 10-86 11-86 12-86 12.5 13*1 122*156 128*952 9 1* 5 122*121 10-86 5.5 5*4 4*9 4*2 5*8 7*2 6 *9 5.1 6.2 5*3 —0 * 2 - 4 8 * 0 11-86 4.8 4*5 4*0 3*3 4*7 5*7 5*2 3*5 4*1 2*9 — 1*6 - 2 9 . 4 -4*3 11*9 12*3 11*7 13.7 14*7 14*0 -4*1 3 0*2 121*678 127*613 77*1 12-66 8.8 8.8 8.7 8.5 10*3 1-87 2.0 1.6 0.9 0.2 0 *9 1*4 0*5 -1*3 -1*6 -3.2 -6*9 -22*2 2- 87 5.5 5*4 5.0 4.6 5t7 6*5 6*3 5.2 5.8 5.4 3*5 -8*5 5*4 8*8 - 1 4 * 7 7 5*7 5.4 5.2 4.9 4*5 5.5 6*3 6.0 5*0 3*4 -6*6 4 *9 7 *4 -9*1 34*6 5*2 3-87 4-87 5.2 5.0 4*7 4*3 5- 87 4*5 4*3 _*tQ 3*6 10-85 11-85 12-85 1- 86 2-86 5.5 5* 1 118*579 -14*3 -58*6 124*280 124*593 3*1 5*9 5*7 4*7 5.1 4 *7 3*2 -5*5 4*4 6*2 -6*5 2 2*6 2*5 1*9 V 9 4 *6 3*7 4*0 3*5 2*1 -5*7 2 *7 3 *9 -6*6 14*4 -0*8 -2*7 -7*0 3-86 4-86 5-86 6-86 7-86 8-86 9-86 10-86 11-86 12-86 1-87 2-8 7 3-87 4-8 7 INITIAL PE- -llf l 124*7 88P 124*031E I« N T H P R E L I MI NA R Y E STI MATED PREPARED BY F EDERAL RESERVE J UNE 11* 1987 9 BANK OF S T . LOUIS HQMRt V C OMP E N S A T I ON. B U S I N E S S S ECT OR CONPOUNOED ANNUAL RAT ES OF CHANCE TERMI NAL IN ITIAL 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 QUARTER 4-84 3-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-05 1-86 2-06 3— 06 4-06 7.5 1 56.6 4-82 5 *9 4.4 1 50.3 1-03 5.3 4.3 4.1 2-83 4*6 3.7 3.3 3-82 159.9 2.5 160.9 161.5 3-83 4.0 3.1 2.7 2.0 1.5 4-83 4.2 3.6 3.3 3.1 3.4 5.3 1-84 4.4 3.9 3.8 3.8 4.2 5.5 16 3 . 4 5.7 165.4 167.1 2-84 4.2 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.9 4.6 4.3 2.9 3-84 4.3 3.9 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.6 4.4 3.8 4.6 3.9 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.5 4.3 3.8 4.2 3.8 4.0 4-84 1-85 4.2 2-85 164.0 170.6 It*.} 3.9 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.4 4.2 3.9 4.2 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.5 4.4 4.1 4.4 4.4 4.6 5.2 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.6 4.8 4.4 4.1 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.1 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.1 3.9 4.0 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.5 3.1 174.5 lt6.4 3-85 4.3 4-85 4.3 4.0 4.0 4.0 1-86 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 2-86 %.l 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.4 3.0 2.7 2.9 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.3 3.0 2.0 2.9 3-86 4-86 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.6 1-87 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.4 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 3.7 2-83 170.0 179.1 2.5 180.4 181.7 2.9 182.6 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.1 2.0 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.0 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.7 l.l 0.2 3-83 4-03 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3—85 4-05 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 INITIAL 102.7 QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE J UNE 2 1 1967 BANK OF S T » LOUIS OUT P UT P ER HOUR OF ALL P E R S ONS . B U S I N E S S SECTOR. COMPOUNDED ANNUAL R AT E S OF CHANCE T ERMI NAL I N I T I A L QUARTER 1977*100 CHIABTfB_____ _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 4-06 2-06 3-06 1-86 4-85 2-85 3-85 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 3-83 4-83 1-83 2-83 2-82 3-82 4-82 3-82 0.4 4-82 1.6 100.3 2.8 101.0 101.9 1-83 2.3 3.2 3.6 2-83 3.3 4.3 5.0 6.4 3-83 2.2 2.7 2.6 2.2 4-83 2.4 2.8 2.8 103.5 103.0 -1.9 2.9 1.8 4.3 3.5 2.7 2.4 2.2 1.1 —0 . 4 1.6 0.8 -0.2 0.0 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.9 1.7 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.7 1.6 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.7 2.3 3.1 3.4 1.1 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.0 -3.3 1.6 1.5 l.l 0.9 l.l 1.4 1.5 1.1 0.0 2.7 3.0 3.1 2.7 3.0 3.0 3-84 2.3 2.6 2.5 2.3 4-84 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.3 1-05 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.2 1.7 2-05 2.0 2.2 2.1 1 *9 1.4 3-85 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.1 4-85 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.9 2-86 1.7 1.8 3-86 1.6 1.7 4-86 1.4 1.5 1-87 1.4 1.4 1.9 104.9 3.7 3.4 1-84 2-04 1-86 103.0 3.1 1.5 165. 6 105.5 105.5 105.7 106.4 2.7 lo t.i 106.4 107.3 3.4 1.7 1.3 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.1 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.3 0.9 0*1 1.9 0.4 1.6 1.5 l.l 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.7 0*8 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.0 l.l 0.0 -0.4 1.4 1.3 0.9 l.l 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 -0 .4 0.4 -0.6 -l .l -1.9 1.3 1.2 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 -0.2 0.4 —0 . 4 —0 . 6 -0.7 0.4 4-82 1-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-B4 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 INITIAL 107.4 107.3 106.8 106.9 QUARTER PREPARED BY FED ER A L RESERVE BANK OF S T . L O U IS JU N E 2 , 1987 10 PRODUCTIVITY, RATIO COMPENSATION, AND LABOR COSTS SCALE RATIO 1977-100 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SCALE 1977-100 2 20 200 180 160 I 40 240 220 200 180 160 1 40 145 12 5 I 05 85 65 1979 1980 19 8 1 1982 1983 1984 1985 S OURCE t P E R C E N T A C E S ARE A N NU A L LATEST DATA P L O T T E D i RA TE S 1S T OF C H ANC E FOR P E R I O D S 1986 U.S. 1987 DE PAR TMENT OF L A B OR ST. LOUIS IN DIC ATED. Q UA R T E R P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L RES ERVE BAN* OF ______________ imfT i Anna rrwrs. futsnfss sprTnft_____________ COWPOtmOED ANNUAL HAT ES OF CHANGE INITIAL 2-82 3-82 7.2 *-82 *.3 3-82 *-82 1-83 2-8 3 3-83 *-83 1-8* 2-8* QUARTER 3-8* *-8* 1-85 2-85 *-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 *-86 156.2 156.8 1.5 156.8 1-83 2.9 0.8 0.0 2-83 1.3 -0.6 -1.7 -3.3 3-83 1.7 0.* 0.0 0.0 3.* * — 83 1.8 0.8 0.6 0.8 2.8 2.3 1-8* 1.7 0.9 0.7 0.9 2.3 1.8 1.3 2-8* 1.6 0.8 0.6 0.8 1.8 1.3 0.8 0.3 3-8* 1.9 1.3 1.2 1.* 2.* 2.2 2.1 2.5 155.5 156.8 1*7.7" 158.2 t*è.r 160.2 *.9 U1.7 *-8* 2.1 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.6 2.5 2.5 3.0 *.3 1-85 2.2 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.8 2.7 2.7 3.1 *.1 3.5 2-85 2.2 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.9 3.6 2.9 3-85 2.1 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.5 2.* 2.* 2.6 3.1 2.2 1.6 1.0 *-85 2.5 2.1 2.2 2.* 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.8 3.5 3.* *.1 2.0 2.1 2.6 2.6 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.6 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.7 2.7 2.9 2.3 1.9 2-86 2.3 3-86 2.3 1-86 3-8 5 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.* 2.* 2.9 0.8 2.* 2.5 2.6 3.0 1.6 2.8 3.1 2.8 3.2 2.2 ü .i 3.6 *.l 2.* 2.* 2.6 1.7 2.3 2.3 t .9 -0.2 1-95 2 - « 3-85 *-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 *-86 3.0 2.6 3.0 2.7 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.5 *-8* 2.2 2.3 2.8 1-87 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.8 2-82 3-82 *-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 *-83 1-8* 2-«* IN ITIAL 167.0 3.2 2.7 2.2 UT.'J 2.* 2.* 2.7 2.* 16* . * 7.2 -0.7 2.6 *-86 1¿ 4 . 0 2.2 3.1 2.7 163.1 168.0 169.3 in.'s 176.4 QUARTER RttERAREO B Y FED ER A L R ESER VE RANK OF S T . JU N E 2# 1 9 8 T 11 L O U IS CROSS NATIONAL PROOUCT IN CURRENT OOLLARS CDWPCHtwnfn A W IA I KATES Of CHANCE________ 8 IL L IONS OF IN I T I A L QUARTER -PQLL W ANNUAL RAT ES QUARTER 2 - ft? 3-82 4-82 1-83 3-82 2.5 4-A? 3.4 4.2 1-03 4*5 5.5 6*6 8.0 9.9 13.0 2-63 2 —81 3-83 4 —83 1-84 2 —84 3-84 4-84 4 —85 1-86 2-36 3-86 4-86 3,265.0 3 *367.4 7.1 8.3 9.7 11.2 9.* 8,0 9.1 IP .4 11.6 10*9 12.* 1-8* 9.0 10.1 11.3 12,* 12.2 13,6 14.9 8.2 3*443.9 3,545.0 3,670.9 2-8* .8 ,9 9,8 10,7 11*5 1U2 11.9 11*5 3-8* 8,5 9.3 10*1 10.6 10,1 10,3 9.7 7.1 6.1 8*2 8*8 9,4 9.8 9.3 9,2 8.5 6.* 5.5 4.9 8.1 8*6 9.1 9.4 8,9 8.8 0.1 6.5 5.9 5.9 6.8 1-85 3-85 3,212.5 3-83 . 2-« 5 3 » 179.* 4-93 4— 8* 1-B5 3,743*8 3,799.7 3,8*5.6 3,909.3 2-8 5 7,9 8,4 8.8 9.0 8.5 8.4 7.7 6.4 5.9 5.8 6.3 5.8 3-85 7.8 8.2 8.6 8,8 8,3 8,2 7*6 6.4 6.1 6.1 6.5 6.3 6.8 4-85 7.6 8.0 8.4 8. 1 7.9 7.4 6.3 6.0 6.0 6.3 6. 1 6.3 5.8 1-86 7.5 7.9 8.2 7.9 7.7 7,2 6*3 i >. l 6,0 6*3 6.1 6*2 6.0 6.2 2-86 7.2 7.5 7.8 7.9 7.* 7.3 6.8 5.9 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.4 5.3 4.8 *.3 2.6 3-86 7.2 7.5 7.7 7.7 7.* 7.2 6.7 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.2 5.0 *.5 6. * *-86 6,9 7,1 7.3 7*3 6.9 6.8 6.3 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.0 4.9 4.5 *.2 3.5 *.0 1.7 1-87 7.0 7.2 7.4 7*4 7*1 6,9 6.5 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.3 5.1 *.9 5.7 5.3 9.1 2-02 3-82 *-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-8 5 3-85 *-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 *-86 IN ITIAL 3»965.0 *»030.5 *,007.7 **1*9.2 *,175.6 *♦2*0.7 4*250.7 4,352.1 QUARTER PREPAREO BY F EOERAL RESERVE BANK OF / u n e i 7 t \ m ST. LOUIS _________________________________________________________________ CROSS NA T I ONA L PROOUCT I N 1992 DOLLARS ____COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RAT ES OF CHANCE_____ BILLIONS ANNUAL RAT ES QUARTER p-A? 4-ft? 3-A3 4- f t 3 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 3,154*5 3-A? -3.2 4-82 -1.3 0.6 1-83 0.3 2.0 3.5 2-83 2.5 4.4 6.4 9.3 3,159.3 3,186.6 3,258.3 3,306.4 3-83 3.2 4.8 6.3 7.7 6.0 4-83 3.8 5.3 6.5 7.5 6.7 7.3 1-84 *.7 6.0 7.2 8.1 7.7 8.5 9.8 2-84 4.7 5.9 6.8 7.5 7.0 7.4 7.4 5.0 3-84 4.5 5.4 6.2 6.6 6.1 6.1 5.7 3.7 2.3 4-84 4.2 5.0 5.6 5.9 5.3 5.1 4.6 2.9 1*9 3,365.1 3,444.7 3,487.1 3,507.4 3,520.4 1.5 3,547.0 1-85 4.1 4.8 5.3 5.5 5.0 4.8 4.3 3.0 2.3 2.3 3.1 2-85 3.9 4.6 5.0 5.1 4.6 4.4 4.0 2*8 2*3 2.3 2.7 2*3 3-85 3.9 4.5 4.9 5.0 4.6 4.4 4.0 3.1 2.7 2.7 3.2 3.2 4*1 3,567.6 3,603.0 3,622.3 4-85 3.8 4.3 4.7 4*8 4.3 4.1 3.8 2*9 2*6 2 *6 2 *9 2.8 3.1 2.1 1-86 3.8 4.3 4.6 4.7 4.3 4.1 3.8 3.0 2.7 2.8 3.1 3.1 3.3 2.9 2- f t 6 3.6 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.0 3.8 3.4 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.1 2.2 0.6 3-86 3.5 *.0 4.2 4*3 3*9 3.7 3.4 2.7 2*5 2.5 2.7 2 *6 2.7 2*3 2.4 1.7 2.0 4-86 3,4 3.8 4.0 4*0 3.7 3.5 3.2 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.9 1.1 2*6 2 *6 2*7 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.9 2.9 4.8 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 OF 3,5 3 *9 4*0 4*1 3*7 3*6 ^*3 2.8 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 INITIAL 3.655*9 3.8 3.661*4 3,686.4 3,696.1 3,739.4 QUARTER PREPARED B Y FEO ER AL R ESERVE BANK OF S T . L O U IS I 7t 12 M 7 ________________________________________________ GROSS N A T I O N A L PRODUCT RATIO SCALE 1979 QUARTERLY 1980 1981 T O T A L S AT AN NU AL 1982 1983 RATES 1984 1985 RATIO 1986 SCALE 1987 SOURCE« U . S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHAN6E FOR PERIODS IN D IC A TE D . LATEST DATA PLOTTED« 1ST QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO U IS 13 GENERAL RATIO PRICE INDEX* SCALE RATIO 1982-100 SCALE 1982-100 1979 1980 «AS USED IN NATIONAL 1981 1982 1983 1984 INCOME ACCOUNTS PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS LATES T DATA PLOTTED: 1985 SOURCE: U .S . 1986 1987 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE IN D IC A T E D . 1ST QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LO U IS I M P L I C I T P R I C E DEF L AT OR FOR ( R O S S N A T I O N A L PROOUCT _______________________________________________________________________ CQ jrO U tP fcD AHNUAL R ATES O f C H A M « ________________________________________________________________________ IE R H IN A I_________________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L QUARTER_______________________________________________________________________1 ? « QUARTER 1-85 4-85 2-82 1- 86 2-BS 3-85 3-86 3-82 * -a 2 1-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2- 84 3-84 4-84 2-86 *-86 2-83 » 109 100.8 3-82 5.8 V-82 4.7 3.6 1-83 4.2 3.4 101.7 3.2 102.5 103.3 2-83 3.9 3.3 3.2 3.2 3-83 3.8 3.4 3.3 3*3 3.5 V— 83 *.0 3.6 3.6 3.8 4.1 *.7 1-84 *.1 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.7 4.6 10**2 105.* 106.6 107.* 2-84 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.1 3.8 3.0 3-84 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.7 3.2 3.* 4-84 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.3 3.4 3.4 1- 85 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 3*6 3.* 3.5 3.5 3.7 2-85 3.8 3 *0 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.* 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.3 3-85 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.* 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.2 2.9 2.5 4-85 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.6 108.3 109.2 110*2 lll.l 111.8 112.8 113.5 1-86 3.6 3.4 3.* 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.1 2.5 2-86 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.1 1.8 3— 86 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.6 2.7 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.2 11*.0 3#6 115.0 115.2 4-86 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.* 2.* 2.1 2.0 2.1 0.7 1-87 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.* *.2 2-82 3-82 *-82 1- 83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1- 84 2-84 3-84 4-8* 1- 85 2-85 3-85 *-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 *-86 IN ITIAL 116.* QUARTER PREPARED BY FED ER AL RESERVE BANK OF S T . AfflE 14 L O U IS 1 7 t 1 9 9 7______________________________________________ PERSONAL CONSUMPT I ON E XP ENDI T U RE S I N CURRENT DOLLARS _____________CQflPPtMDEP ANNUAL RATES O f C m * « ______________ T E R MI N AL QUARTER -Z=&2— 3 -Q 2 3-92 *~9¿ V -fl2— L-B3__ _______ 3 - 8 3 * -9 3 1 - 9 4 __ 2 - 9 4 3 -9 4 4 -9 4 1 - 9 ? __ fc ft5 __ _______ 4 -Q 5 __ I = M ___Z~9*__ _______ 3trS£_ 9,* 10*3 2,117.0 0.0 5.7 2-9? 9,3 9.6 _ 9.3 . .3-42L. 9*3 9*_S *-03 9* h 9.6 1-^r 9.3 2-04 9.3 2,1*6.6 2,213.0 13.0 2,262.8 9*3 11*1 9.3 9.* 10.6 9.5 9.7 9.* 9.2 10.1 9.2 9.1 8.6 9.* 9.2 9.9 9.2 9.1 0.0 _ 2,315.0 2,363.8 2,*16.1 9.1 2,**5.6 8.8 8.8 8.6 9.1 0.3 8.1 7.5 7.0 5.0 8.6 0.6 0.* 0.0 8.1 7.9 7.* 7.0 6.0 7.0 1-85 8.5 0.5 0.3 0.6 8.0 7.0 7.* 7.1 6.* 7.1 2-85 8.* 8.* 0.2 0.* 7.9 7.7 7.* 7.1 6.6 7.2 7.3 7.3 3-05 8.* 8.3 0.2 0.* 7.9 7.7 7.5 7.3 6.9 7.* 7.6 7.7 0*2 8*2 0.2 8.0 3.2 7.3 7.3 6.* 1-86 8*0 7*9 7« 7 2-06 7*8 7*7 7*6 *-05 2 , 0 6 5 »6 _ 3 ^ 5 _______________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________________ i-83 3-04 B I L L I O N S OF P OL L ARS ANNUAL RAT ES I N I T I A L flU A R t£ & . 7*8 7.6 7*9 7.5 7*7 7.3 6.8 2,*07.2 2,530.9 7.2 7.2 7.3 2,576.0 2,627.1 2,667.9 7.3 7.2 7.3 7.0 6.0 6.5 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.* 5.5 *.6 7.1 6.0 6.6 6.3 6.5 6.5 6.3 6.1 5.* *.9 5.2 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.6 6.6 7.7 1 0.3 2,697.9 2,732.0 2,799.0 3-86 7.9 7*9 7*7 7.9 7.5 7.* 7.1 7.0 6.0 4-96 7.7 7.6 7.* 7.6 7.2 7.0 6.0 6*6 6. * 6.5 6.5 6.* 6.2 5.0 5.7 6.1 6.6 3.0 L-87 7*5 7 ** 7,2 7.3 7.0 6.8 6.6 6.* 6.2 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.0 5.6 5.* 5.7 5.8 3.6 4.3 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-03 *-03 1-8* 2-0* 3-04 *-0* 1-05 2-05 3-05 4— 8 5 1-06 2-06 3-06 *— 06 INITIAL 2,920.* 2,050.4 QUARTER PREPAREO BY F E DE RAL I 7 t RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS P S 7 __________________________________________________________________ PERSONAL C ON S U NP T I ON EXP E ND I T U RE S I N 1982 DOLLARS ____________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RAT ES OF CHANCE____________ B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL R AT E S QUARTER 2-8? 3— 82 *— 02 1-83 2-93 3-83 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-9* *-8* 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 I —§6 2-96 3-96 4-96 2,051.9 3-92 2*1 *-92 3.7 5.3 2,079.7 2,094*2 1-83 3.5 *.2 3.0 2-83 * *6 5** 5.5 9.0 3-93 **8 5*4 5*4 6.7 *-03 *.9 5.* 5.* 6.3 5.4 5.5 1-04 4.0 5.2 5.2 5.7 *.9 *.0 *.i 2-9* *•9 5.3 5.3 5.8 5.2 5.2 5.0 6.0 2,135*1 2, 163*0 5,3 2,191.9 2,213*9 2,246.3 2,253.3 3-94 *.5 *.8 *.7 5.0 *.* *.2 3.9 3.6 1.3 4-94 4.* *.6 *.5 4*9 **2 *.0 3.6 3.5 2*3 3.3 1-95 *.3 *.5 4.* 4*6 4.1 3.9 3.6 3.5 2*7 3.5 3.7 2-95 *.2 *.* 4*3 *•5 *.1 3.9 3.6 3.5 2*9 3.5 3.6 3*5 3-95 *.3 4 *5 *.* ^•6 4*2 4.1 3.9 3.9 3*4 3.9 4.1 4.4 5.3 *-95 *.1 4.3 4.2 *•3 3*9 3*9 3.6 3*5 3*1 3*5 3.5 3.5 3.5 2,271*7 2,292*3 2,311*9 2,342*0 1.7 2, 351*7 2,372*7 1-96 4* 1 4,2 4,2 **2 3*9 3*9 3*6 3*5 3*2 3*5 3.5 3*5 3.5 2.6 3*6 2-96 *.2 4.4 4*3 4 *4 4*1 4*0 3.9 3*9 3*5 3*9 4 .0 4*0 4*2 3.9 4*9 6 *2 3-96 *.* 4.5 4*5 4*6 * *3 4*2 **1 4 .1 3.9 *.2 4 .4 4 .5 *.7 * .5 5 .5 6*4 6*7 -0 * 4 2 , 409*4 2 ,4 4 9 * 0 2 , 4 4 5 *9 * -9 6 *.1 4 .2 4* 1 4*2 * .0 3*9 3*T 3*5 3.7 3*9 3 .9 3*9 3 .5 4 .0 4*1 3 .1 1 -9 7 3*9 3.9 3* 9 3*9 3 .6 3 .5 3*3 3*3 3*0 3*2 3*2 3*1 3 *1 2*7 3*0 2*8 l.T -0 * 9 -1 * 1 2 -9 3 3—9 3 4 -9 3 1 -9 4 2-94 3 -8 * 4 -9 4 1 -9 5 2-95 3-95 4-95 1-86 2-86 3-96 4— 9 6 2 -9 2 2,439*9 T s r r r a r « H iT 0 r PREPAREO BY FE D E R A L RESERVE BANK OF S T * L O U I * I T , 1 9 8 7 ____________________ 15 CR O SS P R IV A T E DO M ESTIC IN VESTM EN T I N CURRENT O O U .A A S ______________ CPMTQUNOED ANNUAL R A T E S OF CHANGE________________ IN ITIAL T E R MI N A L QUART ER 2-82 3-82 *-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 *-83 1-8* 2-84 B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RAT ES QUARTER 3-8* 4-84 1-85 2—8 5 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 452.2 3-82 - 12.7 4-82 - 2 3.3 -32.7 1-83 - 11.1 -10.3 2-83 2.9 8.7 38.1 59.5 3-83 8.8 I*.9 37.* *7.2 35.9 * —83 15.* 22.0 *1.6 *9.8 *5. 1 54.9 1-8* 2 1.7 28.6 *6.* 54.0 52.2 61.0 67.* 2-8* 18.6 23.8 37.1 *0.9 36.6 36.8 28.6 -1.2 3-8* 17.3 21.8 32.5 3* . 8 30.3 29.0 21.3 3.3 6.0 *-8* 1*. 8 18.* 27.0 28.2 23.6 21.2 l*.0 0.3 1.1 -5.* 1-85 12.7 15.7 22. 8 23.2 18.8 16.2 9.7 -1.3 -1.* -5 .8 2-85 12.6 15.2 21.5 21.8 17.7 15.3 9.8 0.9 1.5 —0 . 6 1.8 10.5 3-85 11.0 13.3 18.8 18.7 1*.9 12.5 7.* -0.2 0.0 -1 .9 -0 .7 2.1 -5.7 *-85 10.8 12.8 17.8 17.6 l*.l 11.9 7.5 0.9 1. 2 -0.1 1.3 3.9 0.7 7.6 409.6 *28.3 19.6 *81.3 519.7 579.8 659.5 657.5 670.3 661.1 650.6 -6.2 667.1 657.* 669.5 708.3 25.3 1-86 11.7 13.7 18.* 18.3 15. 1 13.2 9.3 3.6 *.3 3.7 5.7 8.9 8.3 16.1 2-86 10.1 11.8 15.9 15.7 12.6 10.7 7.0 1.9 2.2 1.* 2.6 *.5 3.0 6.1 5.4 -1 1 .3 3-86 9.0 10.6 I*.3 13.9 11.0 9.1 5.7 1.0 1. 2 0.* 1.3 2.6 1.0 2.8 1.3 687.3 -9.0 -6.5 675.8 -7.3 *-86 8.1 9.* 12.8 12.* 9.6 7.8 *.6 0.2 0.3 -0.5 0.2 1.1 -0.* 0.7 -0.9 -8 .4 -6.9 1-87 9.6 11.0 I*.3 13.9 11.* 9.9 7.0 3.1 3.5 3.0 *.0 5.* *.6 6.5 6.2 1.9 6.8 14.2 40.5 2-82 3-82 *-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 *-83 1-8* 2-84 3-8* *-8* 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3— 86 *-86 ik t n k t 663.2 722.1 O U k M tk PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK O f ST * L O U I S J UNE I T » 1987______________________________________________ CROSS P R I V A T E DOMEST I C I N V E S T ME N T I N 198 2 DOLLARS ___________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RAT ES OF CHANCE_______________________________________________________________________ B I L L I O N S OF T E R H I H A I _________________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L QUARTER_______________________________________________________________________DOLLARS ANNUAL RAT ES QUART ER *-84 3-85 3-86 *-86 2-82 3-82 V— 82 1-83 2-83 3-83 *-83 1-8* 4-85 1-86 2-86 1-85 2-8* 3-84 2-85 3-82 -- 1 5* 2 4*8.6 *-82 -*23. 5 - 3 1 . 0 *08.8 *27.1 1-83 - ■11*4 -9*4 19*1 2-83 **1 11* 5 *1.9 68*9 3-83 9.7 17.0 39*5 51*0 4-83 15.1 22.3 *1.2 *9.* 40*5 *6.3 1-84 20*6 28.0 * 4* 8 52.0 46.8 53.1 60.1 2-84 17.9 23*6 36.2 39.9 33.4 32.9 26.7 0.2 3-84 16.5 21.2 31.* 33.5 27.4 25.6 19.3 3.0 *86.9 52*.8 35*0 577.2 6 49.3 649.7 658.9 5.8 649.9 4-8* 1**1 17*9 26*1 27*1 21.2 18*7 12.6 0.1 0.1 -5.4 1-85 WtO 1.5 t l 21.9 2 2* 2 16*7 13.9 8.* -1.7 -2.* -6.2 -7.0 2-85 lit? 1**8 20*8 21* 0 16*0 13.6 8.9 0.8 0.9 -0.7 1.8 11.* 638.2 655.6 643.8 3-85 10*3 12t0 18*0 17.8 13*2 10.8 6.* “ 0*6 -0.7 -2.3 -1.2 1.8 —7 . 0 *-85 1 0*0 i 2.3 16.9 16.7 12.5 10*2 6** 0*3 0.* -0.7 0.5 3.1 -0 .7 6.0 1-86 10.7 12. fi 17.2 17.0 13.2 11*2 7*8 2*6 3.0 2.5 4*2 7.2 5.8 12.9 2-86 9.2 11.1 14.9 14.6 10.9 9.0 5*8 1.0 1.1 0.5 1*5 3.3 1.4 4.4 3-86 8.1 9.8 13.2 12.8 9*4 7.5 4 *5 0*1 0.1 -0*6 0.1 1.4 -0.5 1.2 -1.3 -2.0 -1.6 -0.8 -2.7 -1.8 2.3 3.5 2.5 4-8* 1-85 2-85 *-86 6.8 8.3 11.4 10*9 7.6 5*7 2.9 1-87 8.3 9.8 12.9 1 2*5 9*5 7.9 5.4 1.8 1.9 1.5 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 *-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 - i a IN IT IA L 653.2 684.0 20.2 664.7 3.6 -10.8 651.3 -9.3 -7.8 -3.7 -10.6 -10.5 -13.0 4.1 3.8 0.0 3.9 10.4 40.0 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 -0.4 629.0 684.2 QUARTER PREPAREO B Y FEO ER AL RESERVE BANK OF S T . + m 16 1 7 t L O U IS \ * * 1 ________________________________________________________________ GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF COOOS AND S E R V I C E S I N CURRENT OOLLARS ___ ________________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAI RAT ES OF CHANCE_______________________ BILLIONS T E R H I MA l QUARTER _____________2 - B 2 ___3 - 8 2 *-82 1-83 7-8 3 - I M 1 T I AL QUARTER ANNUAL RAT ES 3 - 8 3 ___i r f l i ___L=Ä4 ___¿- f t *___3 - 8 * *-8* 1 - 8 5 ___¿ - 8 5 3-85 * - 8 5 ___ l ~ 9ft ¿ “ 9$ ___3~gJ> *~9fr___________________ -Irte__ l±sh 64 7*1 671,8 * ^ ¿2____ U ± 1 ___ L 6 r ? J -i3 _ 6.6 - 2.2 -2-_£3 3-93 5*8 1.0 *.3 - T f O____ 5ls_2____ 1*8 3.8 3.3 1.6 0.3 -2.7 A rte . A>7 8.6 10.* 17.6 25.2 9.3 13.6 15.1 3.7 ¿— 8* 3-8* 8 .0 7.2 8.5 _9«3 1-95 3-85 \-AP 2-9fr 10.5 9.6 12.9 13.7 9.3 11.8 12.1 9.6 11.8 12.0 9.2 7.5 9.5 11.6 9.1 9.6 10.* 12.* 12.7 10.* 11.5 11.7 13.9 16.3 _J^_* 9.9 10.7 12.5 12.8 10.8 11.9 12.1 13.7 1*.7 13.1 8.2 7.6 7.6 6.3 1.7 A__ 7.? 8.9 10.1 10.1 8.0 7.7 A-31 7.3 6.9 3-8* *-8* 3-82 *-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 *-83 1-8* 2-8* IN ITIAL 860.8 1 2 .0 7.* 5.3 2.9 9.1 7.1 5.3 3.5 7.8 6.9 6.2 *.6 1-85 2-85 3-85 *-85 1-86 8.7 _ 9 * 2 _____L l 8 _ 836.7 -a .5 1 .2 *-8 6 2-82 OF PQiVAj^. 2-86 3-86 *-86 QUARTER PREPARED BY F EDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . L O U I S J UNE 1 7 » 1987________________________________________________ GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF COOOS AND S E R V I C E S I N 1982 DOL L ARS _______________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RAT ES OF C H A N C E ________________ T Ff t HI NAl QUARTER B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS J H 1 TLAL QUARTER ANNUAL RAT ES ------------------2=fi2— 3 -B 2 * —B2___L=Ä3__ Z~fl3__ 3~B3 * ~ B3__ _______ Z=M __ 3 - 6 * * -8 * 1 -8 5 2 -8 5 3 -8 5 * -8 5 1 -8 6 2 -8 6 3 -8 6 * - 8 6 _________________ 3-82 . . *- 92. lit* A-& J t ± l ____ 2*1 2-83 ____ l t 7 - 2 t 9 ____ U l _ *-83 ... * *3 -6.* ____ 1*7 -1.3 It* 1.7 1.3 0.0 -2.7 -I.* -2.7 -6.8 642.2 1-8* 1.6 0.8 _“ L*? 0.2 -o .i -1.0 5.1 2-9* 3.8 3.1 1.8 3.6 *.2 5.0 1 1.5 18.* 3-9* 3.5 3.0 1*9 3.2 3.7 *.2 8.1 9.7 1.7 *-9* 3.*9_ 3*3 2.* 3.7 *.l % •6 7.7 8.6 *.0 6.3 1-9.5 3.7 3.2 ?.3 3.5 3.8 *.2 6.6 6.9 3.* *.2 2.2 2-85 *.0 3.6 2.9 3.9 *.3 *.7 6.7 7.1 *.* 5.* *.9 3-9? *.7 *.* 3.8 5.3 5.8 7.7 8.2 6.3 7.5 7.8 10.8 13.9 5*1 ...**£ .. * *3 5** 5.8 6.3 8.0 8.5 6.9 8.0 8.* 10.5 11.9 10.0 3*0 1*5 2.9 3.8 *.0 **2 5.6 5.6 3.9 *.3 3.9 *.3 3.2 -1.8 -12.3 2-86 *t2 3.9 2t* * *5 *.7 6.0 6.1 *.6 5.0 *.8 5.* *.8 1.9 -1.9 9.7 3-9« *.2 *♦0 1*? 5.8 5.9 *.6 5.0 *.8 5.2 *.7 2.5 0.2 7.1 *.5 *-86 *.6 *.3 3.9 *.6 *.9 5.1 6.2 6.3 5.2 5.6 5.5 5.9 5.7 * .l 2.7 8.2 7.* 10.5 1-87 3.8 3.5 3.1 3.7 3.9 *.0 *.9 *.9 3.7 3.9 3.7 3.9 3.3 1.7 0.1 3.* 1.* —O . l -9.6 2-82 3-82 *-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 *-83 1-8* 2-8* 3-8* *-8* 1-85 2-85 3-85 *-85 l-*6 2-86 3-86 *-86 . ... 1-86 _ . *-2 *.5 650.2 678.2 681.0 INlttAL 691.5 695.3 7.7 708.3 731.8 7*9.* 725.2 7*2.2 750.* 769.3 750.1 (¿OART«" PREPARED BY FED ER A L R ESER VE BANK O F S T . L O U IS JU N E 1 7 » 1 98 7 ________________________________________________ 17 D I S P OSA BL E PERSONAL I NCOME I N CURRENT DOLLARS IQHPQM NP5 P ANMUAL » A T E S T E R MI N A L QUARTER INITIAL ¿-0 2 3-02 *-82 1-03 2-83 3-03 *-03 1-0* 2-6* OP C HA N<*E B I L L I O N S OF OOLLARS ANNUAL RAT ES QUARTER 3-8* *-8* 1-85 2-65 6.7 *-62. 6.9 7.1 1-83 6.2 6.0 *.0 2-83 6.9 6.9 6.8 0.7 3-83 7.1 7.2 7.3 0.5 0.2 *-05 1-8« ¿-86 3-86 *-86 2*310,1 2»3*5,7 2*395.* 2***3.2 2*527,9 *-83 0.3 8.7 9.1 10.5 11.* I*.6 1-0* 9.1 9.6 10.0 11.* 12.3 1*.* l*.i 2-0* 2*612,7 0.6 0.9 9.2 10.1 10.5 11.2 9.6 5.2 3-8* 0.5 0.7 9.0 9.7 9.8 10.3 8.0 6.3 7.* *-0* 0.2 0.* 8.5 9.0 9.1 9.3 0,0 6.0 6.* 5,* 1-85 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.* 0.3 0.3 7.1 5.5 5.5 *.6 3,8 2-85 8.2 0.* 8.5 8.9 8.9 9.0 0.1 7.0 7.* 7,* 8,* 13.2 5.0 5,6 -1,* 3-85 3-05 2»270,6 3-62 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.8 7.7 7*7 6.7 5.5 2*6*6,3 2*693,8 5.6 5,1 2*729,6 2 *755.* 2 *0 * 2 . 3 2 *832 *0 7.* 7.5 7.5 7.8 7.7 7.6 6.8 5.8 5,9 5.6 5,6 6,2 2.8 7,3 1-06 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.8 7.7 7.6 6.9 6.0 6.1 5.9 6.0 6,5 *,* 7,* 7,5 2*682.2 7.* 7.* 7.6 7.5 7.5 6.8 6.0 6,1 5.9 6.0 6.* *, 0 7,0 6,8 2*935.1 N> 1 CD 9- *-85 7.* 3-06 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.1 6.9 6.8 6.2 5.* 5,* 5.2 5.1 5,* 3.9 5,2 *,5 3,1 0.2 *-86 6.6 6.6 6.6 6,7 6.6 6.* 5.8 5.1 5.0 *. 8 *.7 *,8 3,5 *,5 3,8 ¿,6 1.0 1,6 1-87 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.7 6,6 6.0 5.* 5.* 5.2 5.1 5,3 *,2 5,2 *,0 *,1 3.* 5.1 8.5 2-82 3-02 *-82 1-83 2-83 3-63 *-83 1-8* 2-8* 3-8* *-8* 1-85 2-05 3-05 *-05 1-06 2-86 3-86 *-86 INITIAL 6,0 2*978.5 2*979.9 2*993.0 3*05*.9 QUARTER J UNE 17» bV « M f c A L *É*ÉA V É 6 A M OF S T . L G O IS 1967______________________________________________ DI S P OS A B L E PERSONAL INCOME I N 1982 OOLLARS _______CQHPOIMDED AHNUAL R A TES OP CHAH€E________ T E R MI N A L QUARTER INITIAL B I L L I O N S OF PCH.LARS ANNUAL RATES QUARTER 2=fl2__ 3 -Q 2 __ k=A2__ L r J 3 __ 2=33__ 3=43__ *-.fl3__ L = M __ 2-fi4__ 3rfl*__ Ir f l* ___L t 85__ ¿ -6 5__ 3 -6 5 __ lr f l5 __ 1 -6 6 __ ¿ -6 6 __ 3 -6 6 __ ______________________________________________________________________________________ 3-62 ¿»¿86.* -1-0? 2-83 ¿»263.* 2»276.1 i > 3 ____ 2_> 3 2» 311.1 _ 2 ^ 2 ____ 2 x 5 ____ 1*1 ____ *:«P 2 » 335.* ¿ » 39¿ *7 *-83 3*8 *,5 5,1 6,1 7,2 10,2 1-8* **6 5*3 6 *0 6*9 7,9 9,6 9** 2-8* *.3 *.9 5*3 6 *0 6 *5 7*2 5*7 2.2 3-8* *.2 **7 5*1 5*6 5.9 6.3 5*0 2*9 3*6 *-8* *.0 *•* *.7 5*0 5.2 5.* *♦2 2*5 2.7 ¿»446*9 ¿»460*3 ¿»461*9 ¿» 493*1 1.0 ¿»*95.7 *.0 *.2 * .* *,5 *.5 3** 2.0 1.9 l.l 0.* 2-85 *.1 * .* **7 *.9 5.1 5.2 *•* 3** 3*7 3.7 *.7 9.1 3-05 1*5 3 .7 *.0 *.0 *,0 3*1 2*1 2 .1 1.7 1* 7 ¿*3 - 4 .0 1-85 4 -8 5 1-86 3,6 ¿»550*8 ¿»5¿**7 ¿»5*0*7 3 .6 i.7 3 .9 3*9 3*8 3.0 2*2 2 .2 1.9 1.9 2*4 -0*6 2*6 3.8 3.9 4 .1 * .1 * .1 3.* 2.7 2 .6 2 .6 2 .0 3 .4 1 .6 4 .5 6*5 ¿»561*¿ 2-86 3_*8 *•0 *.2 *.3 *•3 *.* 3 .8 3 .2 3 .3 3 .3 3*5 4*1 2*9 5*4 6*8 7*1 3 -6 6 3.* 3-6 3.7 3 .8 3 .6 3*7 3.1 2 .5 2 .6 2 .5 2 .6 2 .9 1 .7 3 .2 3*4 1*9 -3.0 *—8 6 3*1 3*3 3*3 3 .* 3** 3 .3 2.7 2*2 2.¿ 2 .0 2 .0 2 .3 1*2 2 .2 2*2 0 *7 -¿.3 -1 * 5 1-87 3.1 3*3 3 .3 3 .* 3.3 3.3 2*8 2 .2 2*2 2 .1 2 .1 2 *3 1*4 2*3 2*3 1.3 —0*6 0*6 ¿*9 2 -8 2 3 -8 2 * -8 2 1 -8 3 2 -8 3 3 -8 3 * -8 3 1 -8 * 2 -8 * 3 -8 4 4 -8 4 1 -8 5 2 -8 5 3 -6 5 4 -8 5 1 -8 6 ¿ -8 6 3 -8 6 4 -8 6 IN IT IA L ¿.625.7 ¿* 6 0 5 * 5 ¿»595** ¿»613*8 QUARTER PREPAREO 8 T FED ER AL RESER VE 8ANK OF S T . L O U IS I7 t 18 V>*1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------— C W P O K A T t P R OF I T S A F T E R T AXES * ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- f - I W O U H O E P AHHUA1 « A T PS O f CHANCE_______________________________________________________________________ B I L L I O N S Of T £ f t H I N A L _____________ __________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L O U A ItT H )______________________________________________________________________________ D O L L A R S ANNUAL RAT ES QUARTER *-«6 3-B2 4-82 1-83 3-83 *-83 2-8* ?-e* *-8* 2-86 3-86 1-84 3-85 *— 8 5 1-86 2 —82 2 —® 3 2-85 1-85 107.3 3-82 10*.3 *-82 -5.0 -1<?*7 1“ 8? *.5 _« • ? 26.* 2-33 16«? 2**7 *7*3 71.7 110.6 126.6 1*1.0 2*. 7 3 1** *9*5 62.5 5 3* 9 21.6 26.1 37.5 *1.* 28*3 7.0 1-84 19*6 2?*9 ?! •? 3 2** 21** 7.8 l-M 16.3 18.7 2*.* 2 *.1 1** 4 3.6 2.0 -4.3 U*2 12.5 16.3 1*.7 5*8 -3.7 -7.0 -14.0 3-8? 3-84 1 *3.* 1*6.* 0.6 1 4*.8 135.8 -22.6 1 3* . 1 -4.9 4-84 9*5 1 0** 13.* 11.6 3*9 -3.9 —6 . 5 -11.0 -I* .2 i — 85 6.1 6.6 8*8 6.7 -0*3 -7.2 -9.8 -13.9 -16.9 2-85 5*8 6.2 8*1 6.2 0*0 -5.9 -7.9 -10.9 -12.5 -8.8 -10.7 2.2 3-85 7.0 7.5 9.* 7*8 2.* -2.7 -4.0 -6.0 -6.3 -1.8 -0.7 12.1 22.9 126.0 - 13.9 - 2 2 . 1 126.7 133.* 139.* 4-85 7*9 8.* 10*2 8*8 3*9 —0 . 5 -1.4 -2.8 -2.5 2.1 *.0 1*.* 21.1 19.2 1-86 *♦7 **9 6*2 *.7 0*1 -4* I -5.3 -6.9 -7.3 —4 . * —* . 3 0.7 0.2 -9.5 -31.3 2-86 *•7 5.0 6.2 _ *.8 0.6 -3.2 —4 . 2 -5.5 -5.7 -3.0 -2.7 1.8 1.7 -4.6 -14.6 6.1 3-86 5.8 6* i 7.3 _ 6*1 2.2 -1*2 -1.9 -2.9 -2.8 0.0 0.8 5.2 5.8 1.9 -3.3 14.7 23*9 1 26.9 1 28.8 1 35.9 I**.5 *-86 6.9 7.3 8.5 7** 3.9 0.8 0.3 -0.5 -0.1 2.8 3.8 8.1 9.2 6.6 3.7 18.9 25*9 27* 8 1-87 5.6 5.9 7 .a 5*8 2.5 -0.* -1.0 -1.8 -1.5 0.9 1.5 5.0 5.* 2.7 -0*3 9 *4 10*5 *.3 — 1* .9 2-82 3-82 *-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-8* 2-8* 3-8* *-8* 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 *-86 INITIAL * NAT I O N A t 138.8 QUARTER INCOME 9A S I S PREPAREO B f FEOERAL JUN E 17* 1987 RESERVE BANK OF S T . HISTORICAL SOURCES OF NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS DATA Estimates for the series in the regular quarterly presentation of NIPA tables for 1983-85 are published in the July 1986 Survey of Current Business. Estimates for NIPA series for 1929-82 are published in The National Income and Product Accounts of the United States, 1929-82: Statistical Tables. For further information and prices, write to the National Income and Wealth Division (BE-54), Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230. 19 LOUIS IN V E N T O R IE S COMPARED WI T H MONTHLY SALES MANUFACTURING AND TRADE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 72 .6 8 68 . 64 64 . 60 60 .56 56 52 . 52 1.5 0 - 48 44 . 40 40 .36 36 1973 1974 1975 1976 1 977 1978 1 979 1980 1982, I N VE N TORY DATA RE FLECT CHANGES 1981 1 982 1983 SOURCE: «BEGINNING IN 1984 I U.S.DEPARTMENT 1 1 OF COMMERCE I N E S T I M A T I O N PROCEDURES. SHADED AREAS REP R E S E NT P E R I O D S OF B U S I N E S S R E C E S S I O N S . L A T E S T DATA P L O T T E D : APRIL PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . 20 LOUIS
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