Full text of National Economic Trends : June 1983
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ja a • a Mmmmm m »"m am m National Economic Trends Federal Reserve Banfe,«fii»i„Louis June 1983 Productivity rose during the year ending in the first quarter of 1983, despite the recession that persisted through 1982. Output per hour of all persons in the business sector rose 2.5 percent, in sharp contrast to the 0.6 percent annual rate of decline over the previous four years. Productivity typically grows slowly or declines during recessions. Faced with declining sales in such periods, firms reduce output and resource employment. If the use of plant and equipment declines relative to that of labor, output per hour grows slower than its trend and can decline. For example, from the cycle peak in the third quarter of 1981 to the first quarter of last year, productivity fell at a 1.8 percent rate, as business output fell at a 5.9 percent rate and hours of all persons fell at a 4.1 percent rate. The greater decline in output than hours largely reflected a sharp decline in utilization of existing plant and equipment; the Federal Reserve Board index of capacity utilization in manufacturing fell from 79.3 percent in the third quarter of 1981 to 71.6 percent in the first quarter of 1982. Since the first quarter of 1982, however, the usage of existing plant, equipment and labor has fallen much less rapidly. Hours of all persons declined at a 1.6 percent rate. The utilization rate fell only slightly from 71.6 to 69.1 percent. This small decline was almost fully offset by growth in the stock of plant and equipment during the year so that the usage of plant and equipment fell by less than hours of all persons. As a result, more plant and equipment per hour of employment currently is being utilized, contributing slightly to the growth of productivity during the past year. Energy price developments have played a major role in productivity growth over the past year as they have over the past 10 years. In contrast to their negative influence from 1973 to 1981, energy price developments have exerted a strong positive influence on productivity growth since early in 1981. Lower energy prices, relative to the price of business output, provide incentives to alter production methods. The incentive to employ more energy-using plant and equipment is increased, while the incentive to divert capital and labor resources from production to energy conservation efforts is reduced. As a result, productivity is enhanced. The relative price of energy resources fell 7.4 percent in the year ending in the first quarter. Estimates by this Bank indicate that this has directly added 0.7 percentage points to the growth of productivity during the period. In contrast, over the previous four years the relative price of energy rose 57.7 percent, subtracting 1.5 percentage points from the average annual productivity growth during the period. —John A. Tatom to ta l c i v i l i a n C OMP OUN D E D A N N U A L TERMINAL MO N T H employment RATES INITIAL OF C HA NG E MONT H OF 10-81 1 1-81 12-81 11-81 -1.5 12-81 -4. 0 -6.4 1-82 -2.6 -3 .2 0.1 2-82 -2.0 -2.1 0.1 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 5-82 6-82 8-82 7-82 9-82 10-82 11-82 12-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 PERSONS 4 -yi 100.229 99,677 99.686 0.1 99,695 3-82 -1.8 -1.9 -0.3 -0.5 -1.2 4-82 -1.7 -1.8 —0 . 6 -0.8 -1.3 99, t>97 -1.4 99,484 5-82 -0.6 -0 .5 0.8 0.9 1.2 2.4 6.3 6-82 -1.0 -O.o 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.3 1.2 -3 .7 7-8 2 -1.0 -1.0 -0.2 -0 .2 -0.3 -0.0 0.4 -2.4 8-82 -0.8 -0.7 0.0 -0 .0 -0.0 0.2 0.6 -1.2 0.0 1.2 9-82 -0.9 -0.8 -0.2 -0 .2 -0.3 -0.1 0. 1 -1.3 -0.6 -0.3 -1.7 10-82 -1.2 - I . 1 -0.6 -0 .7 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -2 .0 -1.5 -1.6 -3.0 11-82 -1. 1 -1.1 -0.6 -0 .7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 -1.7 -1 .3 -1.4 -2.2 -2.4 -0 .5 12-82 -1. 1 -1.0 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 -1.5 -1.2 -1.2 -1.8 -1.8 -0.5 -0 .5 1-83 -1.0 -1.0 -0.5 -0 .6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -1.3 -1.0 -1.0 -1.4 -1 .3 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 2-83 -1.0 -0.9 -0.5 -0 .6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -1.2 -0.9 -0.9 -1.2 -1 .2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.5 3-83 -0. 9 -0.8 -0.5 -0 .5 -0.5 -0.5 —0 . 4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.7 -1.0 -0 .9 -0.2 -0. 1 0.0 0.0 0.5 4-83 -0.6 -0.5 -0 .2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.0 5-83 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 -0 . 1 -0.1 -0 .0 10-81 1 1-81 1 2- 81 1-82 2-82 3-82 99,994 0. 1 4-82 99,681 - l . l 99,588 99,683 99,>43 -4.3 99,176 99,136 99.093 99,103 99, 0. 6. 3 99,103 -0.6 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.6 0.8 l.l 1.4 2.4 4.4 -0.4 -0.1 -0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.7 0.9 l.l 1.4 2.0 2.8 5-82 6-82 7-62 8-82 9-82 10-82 11-82 12-82 1-83 2-83 INITIAL 3-8 3 99,4M 1 *2 99,557 4-83 Mö n T h PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT* COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES Of CHANGE TERMINAL MONTH 10-81 11-8 1 THOUSANDS OF PERSONS I N I T I A L MONTH 12-81 1-82 2-8 2 3-8 2 4-82 5-82 6-82 7- 8 2 8-82 9 -8 2 10-82 11 -82 12-82 1-8 3 2-83 3-8 3 4-83 91 ,0 41 li-a i -3 .3 12- 81 -3 .7 -4 .0 1-82 -3 .9 -4 .2 9 0 .7 30 90 ,3 9 6 -4 .3 CO 1 “ 2*9 -2 .7 -2 .1 0 .3 3-82 -2 .8 -2 .7 -2 .3 -1 .2 -2 .8 *-92 -2 .3 -2 .7 -2 .3 -1 .6 -2 .6 -2 .4 90 ,4 1 7 9 0 t 207 9 0 ,0 24 5-82 -2 .4 -2 .2 -1 .9 -1 .3 -1 .8 -1 .3 -0 .1 6 -8 2 -* .5 -2 .4 -2 .1 -1 .6 -2 .1 -1 .9 -1 .6 -3 .2 7-8 2 -2 .7 -2 .6 -2 .4 -2 .1 -2 .5 -2 .5 -2 .5 -3 .7 90 ,01 6 89 ,7 7 5 —4 . 3 89 .4 50 8-82 -2 .7 -2 .6 -2 .4 -2 .1 -2 .5 -2 .5 -2 .5 -3 .3 -3 .4 -2 .5 9-82 -2 .5 -2 .4 -2 .2 -1 .9 -2 .2 -2 .1 -2 .1 -2 .6 -2 .4 -1 .4 -0 .4 8 9 ,2 35 10 -8 2 -2 .6 -2 .5 -2 .4 -2 .1 -2 .4 -2 .4 -2 .4 -2 .9 -2 .8 -2*3 -2 .2 _ -3 .9 88 ,93 0 89 ,2 64 11 - 8 2 -2 .5 -2 .5 -2 .3 -2 .1 -2 .4 -2 .4 -2 .3 -2 .7 -2 .6 -2 .2 -2 .1 -3 .0 -2 .0 12 -82 -2 .5 -2 .4 -2 .3 -2 .1 -2 .3 -2 .3 -2 .3 -2 .6 -2 .5 -2 .1 -2 .0 -2 .5 -1 .8 -1 .6 -1 .7 -1 .8 -1 .8 -1 .7 -1 .9 -1 .7 -1 .3 -l.o -1 .2 -0 .2 0.7 3.0 88 ,7 85 8 8 .6 6 5 1-83 -2 ,1 -2 .0 -1 .9 2-83 -2 . 1 -2 .0 -1 .9 -1 .7 -1 .8 -1 .8 -1 .7 -1 .9 -1 .7 -1 .3 -1 .2 -1 .3 -0 * 6 -0 .2 0 .5 -1 .9 3 -8 3 -1 .9 -1 .8 -1 .7 -1 .5 -1 .6 -1 .5 -1 .5 -1 .6 -1 .4 -1 .1 -0*9 -0 .9 -0 .3 0.1 0.7 -0 . 5 0.9 -0 .3 0.3 0.8 1.4 0 .9 2 .3 3.8 5*2 4 -8 3 8 8 ,8 86 88 ,745 8 8 ,8 14 4 -8 3 -1 .6 -1 .5 -1 .4 -1 .2 -1 .3 -l.l -1 .0 -1 .1 -0 .9 -0 .5 -0 .3 5-83 -1 .3 -1 .2 -1 .0 -0 .8 -0 .8 -0 .7 -0 .6 —0 . 6 -0 .4 0 .0 0 .3 0.4 1.0 1.5 2 .2 2 .0 3.3 4.5 10-81 11 -81 12-81 1-82 2-82 3 -8 2 4-82 5 -8 2 6-82 7 -8 2 8 -8 2 9 -8 2 10-82 11 -82 12-82 1-8 3 2-83 3-83 89,Q87P 89 .461P I N I T I A L MONTH »REVISED FROH 1 9 78 . P - PRELIMINARY PREPAREO BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK Of S T . LOUIS JUNE 6 » 1983 2 EMPLOYMENT RATIO RATIO SCALE 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 SOURCE: P ER CEN TAG ES ARE ANNUAL RA TE S OF CHANGE FOR P E R I O D S * DATA R E V I S E D FROM 1982 SCALE 1983 U .S .D EP A R T M E N T OF LABOR IN D I C A T E D . 1978. L A TE ST DATA PLOTTED» MAY P R E L I M I N A R Y PREPAREO BY FE DE RAL UNEMPLOYMENT SEASONALLY PERCENT R E SE R V E BANK OF ST. LOUIS RATE ADJUSTED PERCENT 12.0 1I . 11. 0 10. 10.0 9. 9.0 8. 8.0 7. 7.0 6. 6.0 5. 5.0 4. 4.0 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 SOURCEt P ERCENT OF C I V I L I A N L A T E ST DATA PLOTTED« U.S. 1982 1983 DEPARTMENT OF LABOR LABOR FORCE MAY PREPARED BY FE DE RAL 3 RE SE R VE BANK OF ST. LOUIS CQNStMEk Pktr.F TNOFx F nc a h i i BRi M C O MP O U N D ED A N N U A L TERMINAL "WO N T H 1 0- 8 1 1 1 - 8 1 1 2- 81 INITIAL 1-82 11-81 5.7 12-81 5.3 4.8 1-82 4.7 A . 1 3.5 2-82 3.7 3.0 2.1 0 .9 3-82 2.9 2.1 1.3 0.2 2-82 3-82 4-82 5-82 6-8 2 r n w y iyCDt, RATES Of ccA^nhLàÉ.v inii^Tcnt C HA NG E MONT H 7-82 8-82 1967*100 9-82 10-62 11-82 12-82 1-83 2-8 3 3-83 281.3 282.4 283.2 283.4 -0.4 283.3 4-82 2 . <5 2.3 1.7 1. 1 1.3 3.0 5-82 4. 3 4.0 3.9 4.0 5.0 7.9 6-82 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.9 7.2 9.8 13.4 13.8 7-82 5.6 5.6 5.7 6. 1 7.2 9.2 11.3 10.5 284.0 13.0 286.9 290.0 7.3 291.7 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.8 6.6 8.1 9.4 8.2 5.5 3.8 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.8 6.9 7.7 6.4 4. 1 2.5 1.2 10-82 5.0 5.0 5.0 5. 2 5.7 6.6 7.2 6.1 4.3 3.3 3.1 5.0 11-82 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.6 5.1 5.8 6.2 5.1 3.4 2.5 2.1 2.5 0.0 4.1 3 .9 3.9 - 3.9 4.2 4.7 5.0 3.6 2.3 1.3 0.7 0.5 -1.6 -3. 2 1-83 3. 9 • 3 .a 3.7 3.7 4,0 4.5 4.6 3.6 2.3 1.4 1.0 0.9 -0.4 -0.6 2.1 2-83 3. 5 3.4 3.3 3.3' 3.5 3.8 3.9 2.9 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 -0.9 -1.2 -0.2 " A2 . 4 3-83 3. ^ 3.3 3.2 3. I 3.3 3.6 3.7 2.8 1.7 1.0 0.6 0.5 —0 . 4 -0.5 0.4 -0.4 4-83 3.6 3.5 3. ^ 3.* 3.6 3.9 4.0 3.2 2.2 1.6 1.4 1.4 0.8 1.0 2.1 2. 1 4.4 7.2 5-83 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.8 4.1 4.2 3.5 2.6 2.1 2.0 2.1 1.6 1.9 3.0 3.2 5.1 6.9 10-8 1 l i - e i 12- 81 1 - - 32 2-d2 3-Ò2 4-82 5-82 6-82 7-82 3-82 9-82 AO-82 11-82 17-8? CD 1 8-82 9-82 *ü a T a 4-83 BcGlNNIr^G 1983 I NCO^ PG RA T t S R E N T A L E U U 1 VA L E N C E INITIAL M£ A S U R E . 292.6 292.9 294.1 294.1 293.3 TERMINAL INITIAL 293.2 1.6 293.6 295.3 296.9 6.7 1- A ^ MONT H ________________________________________________________________________________ P-fLfcP A i L i D JUNE 2 2 , PRODUCE* PR I C E I N O E X , F I N I S H E D _____________________ C OMP OU N D E D A N N U A L 293.8 HY F E D E R A L 1983 RE- St RVE BANK. QF !>T . LQUi^ GOOOS - S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E D * R A T E S OF C H A N G E _______________________________________________________________________________ MONT H 1967 = 100 m OKi T H 10-8 1 11-81 12-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 5-82 6-82 7-82 8-82 9-82 10-82 11-82 12-82 1-8 3 2-83 3-83 4-83 11-81 4.0 12-81 4.5 4.9 1-82 4.6 4.9 4.9 2-82 3.7 3.5 2.9 0.9 3-82 2.3 1.9 0.9 - l . l -3.0 4-82 2. 1 1.8 1.0 -0 .3 -0.9 1.3 5-82 1.8 1.5 0.8 -0.2 -0.6 0.7 0.0 6-82 3. 1 3.0 2.7 2.3 2.6 4.6 6.2 12.8 7-82 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.8 3.2 4.8 6.1 9.2 5.7 8-82 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.6 5.0 6.0 8.0 5.7 5.7 9-82 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.0 3.3 4.4 5.0 6.3 4.2 3.5 <N CD 1 o 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.1 3.4 4.4 4.9 5.9 4.2 3.8 2.8 4.3 11-82 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.9 4.8 5.3 6.2 4.9 4.7 4. 3 5.9 7.4 12-82 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.9 4.7 5.1 5.8 4.7 4.5 4.2 5.2 5.6 3.8 1-83 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.8 3.0 3.4 2.1 1.5 0.7 0.5 -0.7 -4.5 -1 2 .2 2-83 2. 5 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.6 2.7 3.0 1.9 1.3 0.6 0.5 —0 . 4 -2.9 -6.1 0.4 3-83 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.6 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 -0.7 -2.6 -4.7 -0.6 -1.7 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.2 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 -0.7 -2.3 -3.7 -0.7 -1 .3 -0 .8 0.6 0.5 -0.1 -1.3 -2.2 0.4 0.4 1.5 3.9 8-82 9-82 10-82 11-82 12-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 275*1 276.2 277*3 277.5 276.8 277*1 277.1 279.9 281.2 4-83 2. 1 2 .0 1.8 1.6 5-83 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.4 1.5 l.l 10- 81 11-81 12-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 5-82 6-82 7-82 »DATA F OR F OUR MO N T H S AGO R E V I S E D TO REFLECT LATE INITIAL REPORTING 282.5 1.3 282*8 263*8 285.5 286*4 283*3 263*4 283.0 282*8 263*7 MONT H PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE bAN* OF S T . JUNE 10, 1983 4 LOUIS RATIO PRICES SCALE 19 67 -1 00 SEASONALLY RATIO AD J U ST E D SCALE 1967-100 CONSUMER P R IC E IHOCX BEG IN N I* © JANUARY 1978 I S FOR ALL URBAN CONSUMERS ( C P l - U ) . U .C P I-U DATA B E G IN N IN G 1983 IN CO RPO RATE A REN TAL EO U I VALEN CE M EASURE FOR H O M E O IM C R S H IP C O S T S . I2 P P I-W OLD S C R IE S (T O BC D IS C O N T IN U E D IN JUNE 1983» P ER C E N T A G ES ARC ANNUAL R A T E S OF CHANCE FOR P E R IO O S LA T E S T DATA PLO TTE& t IH O IC A T E O . MAY PR EP A R ED BY FED ER A L R ESC R V C BANK OF S T . r a t io PRODUCER P R I C E S scale 1967-100 SEASONALLY P ER C E N T A 6 C S ARE ANNUAL LA T ES T DATA P LO T T E O i RATIO ADJUSTED R A TE S OF CHANCE FOR P E R lO O S NAY SCALE 19 67 -1 00 I NO IC A T E D . PR EP A R ED 5 L O U IS »Y FED ER A L RESERVE BANK OF S T . L O U IS PRO D U C E R P R I C E I N D E X , F I N I S H E D C ONSUME R F OOOS - S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E O * ________________________ C O H P O U N O E O A N N U A L R A T E S OF C HA NGE ________________________________ MONT H_______________________ __________________________________________________________1 9 6 7 11-81 -6.8 12-81 -3.5 0.0 1-82 2.2 7.1 14.6 2-82 3.6 7.3 11.1 7.8 3-82 2.5 4.9 6.6 2.8 -1.8 4-82 5.4 8.0 10.2 8.7 9.2 21.4 8.7 7.3 7.2 12.0 3.3 7.0 6.8 9.8 4.4 5.6 <M 00 1 00 1 OD < 1 T E R M I N A L ________________________________________________________________________________I N I T I A L MOHTh 1 0- 81 11- 8 1 12- 81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 5-82 6-82 9-82 1 0- 82 11-82 12-82 1-93 2-93 3-83 2?3t? 256.2 257.8 257.4 261,6 5-82 5.1 6-82 5.2 7.0 8.2 7-82 2.3 3.5 4.0 2.4 1.3 2.1 -3.6 -6.9 8-82 2.2 3.2 3.6 2.2 1.2 1.9 -2.5 -4.3 262.3 263.5 -17.9 -9.0 259,2 0.9 259.4 9-82 1.5 2.4 2.6 1.2 0.3 0.7 -3.0 -4.5 -7.7 -2.1 -5.0 10-82 1.3 2.1 2.3 1.0 0.2 0.5 -2.6 -3.7 -5.9 -1.5 -2.7 -0.5 11-82 1.2 1.9 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.5 -2.2 -3.1 -4.8 -1.2 -1.8 -0.2 0.0 12-82 1.3 2.0 2.2 l .l 0.5 0.7 -1.6 -2.3 -3.5 -0.4 -0.7 0.8 1.4 2.8 1-83 1.1 1.7 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.4 -1.7 -2.3 -3.4 -0.7 -1.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 2-83 1.5 2.0 2.2 1.3 0.8 1.0 -0.8 -1.3 -2.1 0.4 0.3 1.4 1.9 2.5 2.3 7.2 3-83 1.7 2.3 2.5 1.6 1.2 1.4 -0.2 -0.5 -1.2 1.1 1.1 2.2 2.7 3.4 3.6 6.7 6.2 2>8*3 256.2 258,2 256.8 -2,3 256.3 259.8 261.1 4-83 2.4 3.0 3.2 2.5 2.1 2.4 1.0 0.8 0.3 2.6 2.8 3.9 4.7 5.7 6.4 9.5 10.6 15*2 5-83 2.0 2.5 2.7 2.0 1.6 1.8 0.5 0.2 -0.2 1.7 1.8 2.7 3.1 3.7 3.8 5.4 4.9 4.2 -5.7 10-51 11-81 12-41 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 5-82 6-82 7-82 8-8 2 9-82 10- 82 11-82 12-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 3-83 4-63 FOR F OUR MO N T H S AGO REVISED TO REFLECT L ATE INITIAL REPORTING PROD UC E R P R I C E I N D E X , F I N I S H E D G O O D S , ________________________________C OMPOUND ED A N N U A L TERMINAL TH 10-81 1QQ 253.3 7.2 »DATA « 4-83 INITIAL 264.2 262.9 month E X C L U 9 I N G F OODS - S E A S O N A L L Y A O J U S T E D * R A T E S OF C HA NG E _____________________________________ MONT H 1967 * 100 mO n 11-81 7.6 12-81 6.9 1 1-81 12-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 5-82 6-82 7-82 8-82 9-82 10-82 11-82 12-82 1-83 2-83 280,4 6.2 281,8 1-82 5.3 4.1 2.2 2-82 3.6 2.3 0.4 -1.3 3-82 2.2 0.9 -0.8 -2 .3 -3.4 4-82 1.2 0.0 -1.5 -2.7 -3 .4 -3.4 262,3 282.0 261,2 260.4 5-82 0.9 -0.2 -1.4 -2 .3 -2 .7 -2.3 -1.3 6-82 2.5 1 .8 1.1 0.9 1.5 3.2 6.6 15.1 7-82 3.8 3.3 2.9 3.1 4.0 5.9 9.1 14.8 14.4 8-82 4. 1 3.7 3.4 3.6 4.4 6.1 8.6 12.1 10.6 6.9 9-82 4.0 3.6 3.4 3.5 4.2 5.6 7.4 9.7 8.0 4.9 3.0 10-82 4.2 3.9 3.6 3.8 4.4 5.6 7.2 9.0 7.5 5,3 4,5 6.0 11-82 4.6 4.3 4. 1 4.4 5.0 6.1 7.5 9.0 7.9 6.3 6.1 7.7 9.5 12-82 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.9 5.9 7.1 8.3 7.3 5.9 5.6 6.5 6,8 280.1 283.4 286.6 288.2 288.9 290.3 292.5 4.2 293.5 3.1 2.8 2.5 2.6 2.9 3.6 4.4 5.1 3.7 2.0 1.1 0.6 -1.1 -6.0 -15.2 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.3 2.6 3.1 3.8 4.4 3. 1 1.6 0.7 0.2 - l . l -4.4 -8.5 -1.2 3-83 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 2.3 0.8 0.0 -0.5 -1*7 —4 . 3 -7.0 -2 .7 -4.1 4-83 2.0 1 .6 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.9 2.3 2.7 1.5 o 1*1 -1 .2 -2.3 -4. 5 -6.6 -3.5 -4,7 -5,3 5-83 2.2 1 .9 1.7 1.6 1.8 2.2 2.7 3.0 2.0 0.8 0.1 -0.2 -1.1 -2.7 -4.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.6 6.9 10-81 11-81 12-81 1-A2 2-82 3-82 4-82 5-82 6-82 7-82 8-82 9-82 10-82 11-82 12-82 1-8 3 2-83 3-83 4-83 ♦OATA FOR F OUR MO N T H S AGO REVISED TO RtFLECT LATE INITIAL REPORTING ? 1-83 2-83 289.5 289.2 288.2 286.9 288.5 MONT H PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS JUNE 10 , 1983 6 INDUSTRIAL RATIO PRODUCTION RATIO SCALE SEASONALLY 1967-100 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 P ER CEN TAG ES ARE ANNUAL RA TE S OF CHANGE FOR P E R I O D S L AT ES T DATA PLOTTEDt 1981 1982 1983 IN D I C A T E D . MAY P R E L I M I N A R Y PREPAR ED BY FE DE RAL in d u str ia l C QHP OU N O&D RE SE R VE BANK OF ST. LOUIS proouction ANNUAL RATES INITIAL term inal Mo n SCALE 1967-100 ADJUSTED OF C HANGE MONT H 1967 10-81 11-81 12-81 1-32 2-32 3-82 11-81 -20.3 12-81 -20.9 -21 .4 1-82 -20.7 -20 .9 -20.4 2-82 -12.0 -9.0 -2.1 3-82 -11.5 -9.1 -4 .7 4.3 -9.6 4-82 -11.6 -9.7 -6.5 -1 .4 -10.8 -12.0 <N CO 1 4-82 5-8 2 6-82 7-82 8-82 <>- 32 10-82 U-82 12-82 1-8 3 9? 3-83 100 4-83 146,3 143.4 * O 140.7 142.9 141,7 140.2 -11.1 -9.5 -6.9 -3.2 -10.0 -10.1 -8.2 -10.3 -8.7 -6.4 -3.4 139.2 -8.2 -6.3 -4.2 -9. 1 -7.6 -5.4 -2.7 -6.7 -6.0 -3.9 -1.7 0.9 -8.5 -7.1 -5.2 -2.8 -6.2 -5.5 -3.8 -2.3 -1.3 9-82 -8.6 -7.3 -5.6 -3.6 -6.6 -6 . 1 -4.9 -4.0 -4.0 -6.3 10-82 -9.0 -7.9 -6.4 —4 . 7 -7.5 -7.1 -6.3 -5 .9 -6.3 -8.6 -11.1 -13.1 11-82 -8.8 -7.8 -6.4 -4.0 -7.4 -7.1 -6.4 -6. 1 -6.4 -8.2 -9.7 -10.0 -6.8 12-82 -8.0 -7.0 -5.7 -4.3 —6 . 4 -6.1 -5.3 -4.9 -5.0 -6.1 -6.8 —6 . 0 -2.2 2.7 1-83 -6.3 -5.2 -3.9 -2 .3 -4.2 -3.6 -2.7 -1 .9 -1.6 -2.0 -1.7 0.2 5.1 11.6 21.4 2-8 3 -5.6 -4.5 -3.2 -1.7 -3.4 -2.8 -1.8 -1. 1 -0.6 -0 .9 -0.4 1.4 5.4 9.8 13.6 6.3 -4.4 -3.3 -2.0 -0.5 -1.9 -1.3 -0.2 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.9 3.8 7.6 11.5 14.6 11.4 16 . 8 4-83 -2.9 -1.7 -0.4 -0.1 0.7 1.8 2.7 3.5 3.8 4.7 6.8 10.6 14.4 17.6 16.3 21 . 7 26.8 5-83 -2.0 -0.9 0.4 1.9 0.8 1.6 2.7 3.7 4.4 4.8 5.7 7.7 11.1 14.4 16.9 15.8 19 . 2 20.4 14.3 10-81 ll-3 l 12-01 1-82 2-82 5-02 4-82 6^82 7^ 82 8-82 9-82 10-82 11-82 12-82 1-83 2-83 3-8 3 4-83 t U) CD -8.6 7-82 CO 1 CO 6-82 1. 1 5^~92 138.7 138.8 -3.4 rN ÎT T  l P- * th ¿RfUTTOUftf 138.4 -9. 1 137.3 135.7 134.9 .135,2 137.4 138.1 ^ * 9 142, l r 1 4 4 . 3P h ô n T h -------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------- - PREPAR60 BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK. CI- S T . JUNE 15» 1983 7 LOUIS PERSONAL RATIO SCALE TRILLIONS monthly OF DOLLARS totals INCOME at SEASONALLY annual RATIO rates TRILLIONS ADJUSTED OF SCALE DOLLARS 9 2. 2. 2.8 7 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 6 5 4 3 2 . 2 7 1.6 1. I . I . I . 1. 3 1. I . 2 1. 1. I 0 I 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 SOURCEt PER CEN TAG ES ARE ANNUAL RA TE S OF CHANCE FOR P E R I O D S L AT ES T DATA PLOTTED: U.S. 1982 1983 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE INDICATED. MAY P R E L I M I N A R Y PREPA RE D BY FEDE RAL RE SE R VE BANK OF ST. LOUIS PERSONAL INCOME COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL WUNTH 10-81 11 -8 1 B I L L IO N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATtS I N I T I A L MONTH 12-81 1 -8 2 2-8 2 3 -8 2 4-82 5-82 6-82 7 -8 2 8-82 9 -8 2 10-82 11-81 5.8 12-81 2.5 -0 .7 1 -8 2 1.9 0.0 0.7 2 -8 2 3.2 2 .4 4.0 7 .3 3 -8 2 3 .1 2 .4 3 .4 4 .8 2.3 4 -8 2 3.9 3.5 4.6 6.0 5.3 8 .4 5 -8 2 4.8 4.6 5.7 7.0 6.9 9 .3 6-82 4.8 4 .7 5.6 6.6 6.4 7.8 7.5 4 .8 7 -8 2 5 .5 5 .4 6.3 7.3 7 .3 8 .5 8.6 7.8 10.8 8-82 5 .1 5 .0 5.7 6.5 6.3 7.1 6.8 5 .7 6.2 1.7 9-82 4.8 4.7 5.4 5.9 5.8 6.3 5.9 4.9 4 .9 2.1 2 .4 10 -82 4 .9 4.8 5.4 5.9 5.8 6.3 5 .9 5.1 5.1 3.3 4 .1 5.8 11-8 2 5.2 5.2 5.7 6.2 6 .1 6 .6 6.3 5.7 5.8 4 .6 5.6 7.3 8 .7 11-82 12-82 1-83 2-8 3 3-8 3 4-8 3 2.4 9 9 .0 2,4 9 7 .6 2 ,4 9 9 ,1 2 ,513.8 2* 51 8 .6 2,5 3 5 .5 10 .2 2 ,5 56.2 2,566.3 2 .5 88.3 2,5 9 2 .0 2,5 97.2 2 ,6 09.4 2,6 27.7 5. 1 5.0 5 .5 5.9 5. 8 6.2 5.9 5.3 5.4 4 .4 5.1 6.0 6.0 3.4 1-83 5 .0 4.9 5.3 5.7 5.6 5.9 5.6 5.1 5.1 4.2 4.7 5.3 5.1 3.3 3.3 2 -8 3 4.7 4 .6 5.0 5.3 5.2 5.4 5.2 4 .6 4.6 3 .7 4 .0 4 .4 4.0 2.5 2.0 0 .8 3-83 4.8 4 .7 5.1 5.4 5.3 5.6 5.3 4.8 4.8 4.1 4 .4 4.8 4.6 3.6 3.6 3.8 4-83 5. 1 5.0 5.4 5.7 5.6 5.9 5.6 5.2 5.3 4.7 5.1 5.4 5.4 4.7 5.0 5.6 8.1 9.5 5-83 5.6 5.6 6 .0 6.3 6.2 6.5 6.4 6. 1 6.2 5 .7 6 .2 6.6 6.8 6 .4 7.1 8.0 10.5 12.4 15.5 10-81 T T - U T "T Z - e i 1 -0 Z Z-82 3- 8 Z 4—8Z 6—oZ 7 -8 2 o-8 2 9-82 10-82 11 -82 12-02 1-8 3 2-83 3-33 4-8 3 12 -8 2 5 -8 2 2,6 3 5 .0 I N I T I A L MONTH P - PR EL IB IN ART JUNE 20# 1983 8 2,6 42.1 2,643.9 6.8 2,658.5 2,678.6 2 ,71 0.9P RETAIL RATIO SALES SCALE BILLIONS OF 1975 RATIO DOLLARS 1976 SEASONALLY 1977 1978 BILLIONS ADJUSTED 1979 1980 1981 SOURCE: PE RCE NT AGE S ARE ANNUAL RA TE S OF CHANGE FOR P E R IO O S LA TE ST DATA PLO TTED: APRIL, U.S. 1982 11-81 1.8 1.2 1-82 -3» 1 2-8? 2.8 1983 IN D I C A T E D . MAY ADVANCE E S T I M A T E COMPOUND 12-81 DOLLARS DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE P RE PARE D BY FE DE RA L R E SE R VE TERMINAL MOMT H 10-81 SCALE OF RETAIL ANNUAL INITIAL SALES RATES OF BANK OF ST. LOUIS C HA NG E MONT H OUL L A k S 1 1-81 12-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 5-82 6-82 7-82 8-82 9-32 10-82. 11-82 12-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 87•358 0.7 87.409 -5.5 -11.3 3.2 4.5 80,542 23.0 tf9i <^49 3-82 1.3 1 .2 1.3 8.3 -4 . 6 4-82 2.9 3.1 3.7 9.2 2.9 11.0 5-82 7.1 8.1 9.6 15.5 13.2 23.3 87.701 68.468 36.9 VQ.813 6-82 2.4 2.5 2.8 5.8 1.9 4.2 0.9 -25 .6 7-82 3.4 3.6 4.1 6.9 3.9 6.2 4.6 -8.6 12.4 8-82 2.5 2.6 2.9 5.1 2.3 3.8 2. 1 -7.5 3.2 -5.2 9-82 3.3 3.5 3.8 5.9 3.6 5.1 3.9 -3.0 6.0 2.9 11.7 10-82 4.2 4.4 4.8 6.8 4.9 6.3 5.6 0.2 8.0 6.6 13.0 14.3 11-82 5.6 5.9 6.4 3.3 6.8 8.3 7.9 3.7 10.9 10.5 16.3 13.6 23.1 12-82 5. 1 5 .4 5.8 7. 5 6.0 7.3 6.8 3.1 8.9 8.2 11.9 11.9 10.7 -0.4 1-83 4.6 4.8 5. 1 6.6 5.3 6.3 5.8 2.5 7.2 6.4 8.9 8 .2 6.3 -1.3 -2.1 2-83 3.4 3.5 3.7 4.9 3.5 4.3 3.7 0.5 4.4 3.3 4.8 3.4 0.9 -5.6 -8.1 -13.8 3-83 4.8 5.0 5.3 6.6 5.5 6.3 5.9 3.2 7.1 6.4 8.2 7.6 6.3 2.5 3.5 6.5 31.4 4-83 5.8 6.0 6.3 7.6 6.6 7.5 7.2 4.9 8.5 8.1 9.9 9.7 8.9 6.3 8.0 11.6 27.0 22.7 5-83 6.8 7.1 7.5 8.8 7.9 8.9 8.7 6.7 10.2 10.0 11.8 11.9 11.5 9.7 11.8 15.6 27,5 2 5.5 28.5 1C-Ô1 11-81 12-al 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 5-82 6-82 7-82 8-82 9-82 10-8? 11-82 12-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 88.603 89.469 INITIAL PE- 89,069 89.697 90.905 92,492 9^,459 92.295 91,164 93» ¿63 94 » 8 6 4 b 96.866c. MONT H PRELIMINARY ESTIHATEO PREPARED BY FEDERAL RtSe RVt bANK OF S T . LOUIS JUNE 10, 1983 9 HOURLY COMPENSATION» B U S I N E ^ ^ T ^ C T O R COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES Of CHAVGfc_____ TERMINAL BARTER I N I T I A L QUARTER 2 -7 8 3-78 3-78 4-7 8 1-79 2 -7 9 3-79 4—79 1 -8 0 2-80 4-80 3-80 1977 « IOO 1-81 2-8 1 3- 8 1 4-81 1-82 2-82 4-82 3-62 9.3 109.6 4 -7 8 9.5 9.8 1 -7 9 10 .1 10 .5 11 .1 2-79 9.7 9.8 9.9 11 2. 2 11 5.2 11 7. 6 8 .6 3—79 9.8 9.9 10.0 9.4 10 .2 4 —T9 9.6 9 .7 9.6 9 .1 9.4 8.6 1-80 10 .0 10.1 10.2 10.0 1 0 .4 1 0 .6 2-80 1 0 .1 10.2 10 .3 10 .1 10 .5 10 .5 11.5 1 0 .5 0 «0 1 10.1 10 .2 1 0 .3 1 0 .1 1 0 .4 10 .5 1 1 .1 10.4 10 .2 10 1 0 .2 10.0 10 .3 10.3 10*7 1 0 .1 9.9 9.6 4 - 0 0 __ 10.1 120.5 12 3.0 1 2 6 .7 1 2 .6 1 2 9. 9 133.1 136.2 1-81 10.2 10 . 3 1 0 .3 10.2 10.5 10 .5 10.9 10.5 10.5 10 .6 11 .6 2 -8 1 10 .0 10 .0 10.0 9.9 10.1 10 .1 10.3 9 .9 9 .7 9.5 9.5 7.3 3-81 9.9 10.0 1 0 .0 9 .9 1 0 .0 1 0 .0 10.2 9 .8 9 .6 9.5 9 .4 8.3 9.3 __ 4-JBl _ 9.7 9.8 9.7^ 9.6 9.7 9.7 9 .8 9 .4 9.2 9.0 8.9 8.0 8 .3 7.3 9.6 9 .6 9 .6 9.5 9 .5 9 .5 9 .6 9 .2 9.0 8.8 S .7 7 .9 8.1 7.5 8 .5 8 .3 7.6 7 .7 7.2 7.1 7 .0 6 .9 1 -8 2 14 0.0 142.5 14 5 .7 14 8.3 7 .8 151.1 2-82 9.4 9 .4 9.4 9 .2 9.3 9.2 9.3 8 .9 8 .7 3-82 9.2 9 .2 9 .2 9 .0 9.1 9 .0 9 .0 8.6 8.4 8 .2 8 .0 7 . 4 ___ 7 . 5 6 .5 6 .4 4-82 9.0 9 .0 8.9 8.8 8 .8 8.7 8 .T 8 .4 8.1 7.9 7 .7 7.2 7.1 6.7 6.5 6.1 5.9 5 .5 1-8 3 8 .8 8.7 8 .7 8.5 8.5 8.4 8.4 8 .0 7.8 7.6 7 .4 6.8 6.8 6.4 6 .2 5.8 5 .5 5 .1 2 -7 8 3-78 4-78 1 -8 0 2-80 3-80 4-8 0 1 -81 2 -8 T 3 -8 1 4 -e i 1 -8 2 2-Ò2 6 .5 15 3.5 15 5.9 15 8. 0 4 .6 159 .8 4-82 IN IT IA L QUARTER OUTPUT PER HOUR OF ALL PERSONS» BUSINESS SECTOR COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE ---------- ----------TERMINAIL Óu à *T£ r -------------------------------- ------------ I N I T I A L QUARTER 1 00 2 -7 8 -0 .4 4-78 0.2 3-7 8 4— 78 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3-79 4 -7 9 1 -8 0 2-80 3-80 4-80 1977 * 100 1-81 2- 8 1 4 -8 1 1-82 -0 .4 -0 .4 -1 .6 -0 .9 -1 .1 -2 .0 -2 .4 3-79 -1 .1 -1 .3 -2 .0 -2 .2 4-7 9 -l.l -1 .2 -1 .7 -1 .7 -1 .4 -0 .8 1-80 -0 .8 -0 .9 -1 .2 -l.l -0 .7 0.0 0.8 2-8 0 -1 .2 -1 .4 -1 .7 -1 .8 -1 .6 -1 .5 -1 .8 -4 .4 3-8 0 -0 .8 -0 .8 -1 .1 -1 .0 -0 .7 - 0 .4 -0 .3 -0 .8 2.9 -0 .5 -0 .5 -0 .7 —0 . 6 -0 .3 0.1 0 .3 0.1 2.5 2 .0 1-8 1 0 .0 0.0 -0 .0 0.1 0 .5 0.9 1.3 1.4 3.4 3.7 2-81 0 .0 0 .0 -0 .0 0.1 0 .4 0.8 1.1 1.1 2.5 2.4 2 .6 0 .0 3- 8 1 0 .1 0.1 0.1 0 .2 0.5 0.9 1 .1 1.1 2.3 2.1 2.2 0.6 1 .2 4-81 -0 .1 -0 .1 -0 .2 -0 .0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0 .6 1 .4 1 .1 0.9 -0 .5 -0 .8 -2 .7 1-82 -0 .2 -0 .1 -0 .2 -0 .1 0.1 0 .3 0 .4 0.4 1*1 0.8 0 .6 -0 .6 -0 .8 -1 .8 -0 .8 2-82 -0 .1 -0 .1 -0 .1 0.0 0.2 0 .4 0 .5 0 .5 l.l 0.9 0.7 -0 .2 -0 .3 -0 .8 0.2 1.2 0 .4 0 .5 0.3 1.3 2.4 * 4-8 2 10 0. 8 1-79 I O 3 -8 2 1 00 .6 0.8 2-7 9 CD 2 -8 2 1 0 0. 4 99.8 -2 .0 99.3 9 9 .1 99.3 98,2 98.9 99.4 5.3 10 0 .7 1 0 0 .7 10 1 .0 1 0 0. 3 10 0. 1 1 0 0. 4 3-82 0.1 0.2 0.1 0 .3 0.5 0.7 0 .8 0 .8 1.4 1.2 1.1 4-8 2 0.3 0 .3 0.3 0 .4 0.6 0.8 1 .0 1.0 1 .5 1. 4 1.3 0 .7 0 .9 0 .8 1.7 2 .5 3 .2 2.8 1-83 0.4 0 .4 0 .4 0.5 0.7 0 .9 1 .1 1.1 1.6 1. 5 1.4 0 .9 1.1 1.1 1 .8 2 .5 2.9 2.6 2.4 2- 7 8 3-7 8 4-78 1 -7 9 2-7v 3—79 4 -7 9 1-80 2-8 0 3—8Ô 4—Ô 0 1-8 1 2 -8 1 3 -é l ^4 -S Ì l-* 2 2-8 2 3-02 4-8 2 3.6 10 1. 3 10 2. 0 1 0 2. 6 IN ITIA L QUARTER ►REê a A é ô b y é ë W e r a l JUNE I , 1983 10 r esér v eìv a n k ò p st . lo u is PRODUCTIVITY, COMPENSATION, AND LABOR C O S T S * RATIO SCALE RATIO 1977-100 SEASONALLY 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 SO UR CE: P ER C E N T A G ES ARE ANNUAL L A T E S T &ATA PLO TTEO t X R E V IS E D FROM SCALE 1977-100 ADJUSTED 1982 1983 DEPARTMENT O f LABOR PREPARED BY FED ER A L R ES E R V E BANK OF S T . L O U IS R A T E S OF CHANCE FOR P E R IO D S U .S. IN D IC A T E D . 1ST QUARTER P R E L IM IN A R Y l« 4 7 . U N IT LABOR CO ST S, BUSINESS SECTOR _________________________COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE_____________________ I f R H l W - ___________________________________________________________________I N I T I A L QUARTER_________________________________________________________________ 1977 « IPO QUARTER 2-78 3-7 8 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4 -7 9 2-80 1 -8 0 4 -9 1 3—80 4~90 1-52 i-e i 2-81 ÎT 0 1 Z-92 3 -9 Z 4-82 3-78 9 .3 CO p* • * 9 .4 9.5 1-7 9 10 .5 11 .1 1 0 «.9 11 1. 4 12 .8 11 4 .8 2-7 9 10 .6 11.0 11 .8 10.9 3-7 9 1 1 .0 1 1 .4 12 .0 1 1.6 12 .4 4-7 9 10.7 11.0 1 1 .4 10.9 11.0 9.6 1-80 10 .9 11 .1 11.5 11 .1 11.2 10.7 1 1 .8 2-80 11 . 5 11 .8 12 .1 12 .0 12 . 3 1 2 .3 13 .7 15.6 3-0 0 11 .0 11 .2 11 .5 11.2 11.3 1 1 .0 11.5 11.4 7.5 11 7 .8 12 1. 3 124*1 127*6 13 2. 3 > 1 o> o 1 3 4. 7 1 0 .6 10.7 1 0 .9 10.6 10.6 1 0 .2 10.4 9.9 7.2 7.0 1 -8 1 10 .2 10.3 10 . 3 10.0 9 .9 9.5 9.5 8 .9 6.8 6.5 6 .0 1 3 7 .0 1 3 9 .0 2-81 9.9 10.0 10.0 9.7 9.6 9 .2 9.1 8 .6 7 .0 6.8 6 .7 7 .4 3-81 9.8 9.8 9 .8 9.5 9 .4 9.0 9 .0 8.5 7.1 7.1 7.1 7 .6 7.9 4-81 9.8 9.9 9.9 9.7 9 .5 9 .2 9 .2 8 .8 7 .7 7.8 8 .0 8 .6 9.3 10.7 1-82 9 .7 9 .8 9.8 9 .5 9 .4 9.1 9 .1 8 .7 7.8 7.9 8 .0 8.6 9.0 9.5 8.4 2-82 9.5 9.5 9 .5 9.2 9.1 8 .8 8 .7 8 .4 7.5 7.5 7.6 7 .9 8.1 8.1 6.9 5 .4 3-8 2 9 .0 9 .0 9 .0 8.7 8 .6 8.2 8.1 7.8 6.9 6.9 6.8 7 .0 6.9 6.7 5 .4 3 .9 2 .4 4 -8 2 8.7 8 .6 8.6 8 .3 8.1 7.8 7 .7 7 .3 6.5 6.4 6.3 6 .4 6.2 5.9 4.7 3 .5 2 .6 2 .9 1-83 8 .3 8 .3 8.2 7.9 7.7 7.4 7.3 6 .9 6 .1 6.0 5.9 5.9 5 .7 5.3 4.3 3 .2 2.5 2 .6 2.3 2—7è 3-7 « 4-?a 1 -7 9 2-79 3-7 9 4-7 9 î-éo * -• 0 4-80 l-«l 2-81 3-8 1 4-81 1-8 2 2-82 3 -8 2 4-82 14 1 .5 1 4 4. 2 147.9 1 5 0 .9 15 2 .9 1 5 3. 8 15 4 .9 15 5. 8 I N I T I A L QUARTER PREPARED 5Y FEDERAL RESERVE BANK. OF S T . LO U IS JUNE 1 , 1983 11 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN CURRENT DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE BILLIONS TERMINAL QUARTER 2 -7 8 I 00 I N I T I A L QUARTER 4-78 1-79 3-7 8 12.5 4-7 0 0 .7 1-79 12 .4 1 2 .4 9.8 2-7 9 11 .1 10 .8 8.6 7 .5 2-79 3-79 1- 8 0 2-80 3 -8 0 1-81 2-8 1 3- 8 1 4 -8 1 1- 8 2 2 -8 2 3-8 2 4-8 2 2* 28 1 .6 2,335.5 2,3 77.9 3-7<> 11.6 11 .5 10 . 2 10.5 13 .6 11.0 16 .8 9.7 9 .7 10.8 8 .1 2,4 54.8 2* 5 0 2 . 9 1 1 .2 11.6 10.2 10 .3 11 .3 10.1 12 .2 2-8 0 “ *77 “ 9.3 8 .4 8.1 8.2 6 .5 5.7 —0 . 4 3-80 <5.^ 97 é> 67 8 Ô .6 67 Ô 7.7 7.6 5.3 11 .4 9 .5 9.9 9.2 9 .4 8.6 13.3 15 .3 2*575.9 2 * 57 3 .4 10 .2 1 -8 1 11 .2 1171 10.6 1 0 .8 11 .2 id" .8 11 .4 11 .2 15 .4 17 .4 19 .6 2—81 10.7 10.5 10 .1 10.1 1 0 .5 1(570 1Ô.4 10.0 12 .8 13 .2 12 .2 5.3 3—Ô i 1 0 .7 13 .1 1 0 .2 10.3 10 .6 10 .2 10.5 10 .2 12 .5 12 .8 11.9 8.3 11 .4 4-81 10. 2 10.0 9”. 6 9 .6 9.8 $.4 $ .5 ^.2 16.8 10 .7 9.6 6 .5 7 .1 3 .0 1-82 9 .4 9.2 ~8.7 ' 8 .7 S.8~ 8.3 8 .3 7.8 9 .1 8 .7 7.4 4.6 4 .3 1 .0 Nl 1 OD N 9.2 9 .6 "B.'i S . 5" 8.6 6.2 8.2 ? .? 8.8 8.4 7 .3 5.0 4.9 2 .9 2.8 6.8 3 -8 2 9.0 8.8 8 .4 8 .3 Ô .4 Ô.0 7 .9 7.5 8.4 8.1 7.1 5.1 5.1 3.6 3.8 6.3 5 .8 8Y7 8 .4 8.0 7 .9 8.0 7.5 7. 5 7.1 7.8 7.5 6 .5 4.8 4 .7 3 .4 3.5 5.0 4 .2 2.6 1-8 3 8.6 8.4 6.0 T. 9 8 .0 7 .6 7 . 5" t ;2 7 .9 t.5 6 .7 5.2 5*2 4.2 4*4 5.8 5.5 5.4 8.3 2 -7 8 3 -7 8 4-78 1-79 2-79 3 -7 9 l oo o 2 * 64 3 .7 10 .A 00 I ■4- l 00 ° 4-8 0 2* 2 0 2 .5 4-7 9 7 00 ° 4-79 OF DOLLARS ANN LIA 1 RATFS 3 -8 0 4-80 1-81 2-81 3- 8 1 4- 8 1 A-82 2-32 3-6 ^ 4-6 2 4—79 1 -8 0 2 ,7 3 9 .4 2 ,8 64.9 2* 90 1 .8 2* 98 0 .9 3* 003 .2 -1 .0 2 * 99 5 .5 3*0 45 .2 3,0 8 8 .2 3,108.2 3,1 7 0 .6 . .. _ .... I N I T I A L QUARTER frftQI S ^ T LQttAl -PftQW.CJ IN 1972 PQLLAftS. COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL QUARTER BI L L IO N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATtS I N I T I A L QUARTER 4-78 1 -7 9 2-79 3 -7 9 4-7Ô 4 .4 5.5 1-79 3.3 3 .3 1.1 2-7 9 2 .2 1.9 6.1 -0 .9 3-^79 ~27ô " 2.6 1.7 1.9 4.8 I >0 3-78 3.3 2.4 ~y.2 1 .4 1 .5 " 278 0.7 1- B O 2.3 571 T .4 1 .5 " 2.3 1. 1 N I 00 o 2-78 *-7 8 0 .7 TJ. 4 -0 .5 -~0.8~ -0 .8 0 CO 1 HI 0.8 07 5 -0 .2 -0 .4 4-7 9 1- 8 0 2 -8 0 3- 8 0 4-8 0 1-81 2-8 1 3- 8 1 4-8 1 1- 8 2 2-82 3-82 4-8 2 1,448.8 1* 46 8 .4 0.4 ” 1.2 1* 472.6 1*469.2 1* 486 .6 1,489.3 1.5 -2 .6 ■ -4 .2 1,494.9 -9 .6 1,457.8 -0 .3 -1 .5 -2 .3 -4 .1 1.7 073“ "075 —0 . 4 -0 .7 -1 .4 i.o 4.3 1.5 o.$ 1.6 0 .9 4.6 6 .1 7.9 1-81 1.8 T .6 "T.2 1.2 1 *463.8 1,479.4 1,5 07.8 s1 T .5 1.3 0.9 o.* 1.1 6 .6 6.6 0.4 3.0 3.5 3.1 -1 .5 3-ffl 1.5 1.4 r.o 1.0 “ 1 .2 6.8 0.8 0.7 2.9 3.2 2.8 0 .3 2 .2 4-8 1 1 .0 0.9 0 .5 0 .4 Ô .6 0.1 0.0 -0 .2 1 .5 1.4 0 .7 -1 .6 -1 .6 -5 .3 1,5 02.2 1* 510 .4 1*490.1 0.4 0.0 -0 .0 6 .0 -0 .4 -0 .6 -0 .8 0.5 0.3 -0 .5 -2 .5 -2 .8 -5 .2 -5 .1 6.7 0 .5 6.2 6 .1 6.2 -6 .2 -0 .3 -0 .5 0.7 0.6 -0 .0 -1 .6 -1 .6 -2 .8 -1 .6 2 .1 3-8 2 “~ 0 . 7 0 .6 0.2 6.2 6.2 -0 .1 -0 .2 -0 .4 0 .7 0.6 0.1 -1 .2 -1 .1 -1 .9 -0 .8 1 .4 0 .7 4-8 2 0 .4 “ 075 ~ “ 0 .1 0.1 6.2 -0 .2 -0 .3 -0 .4 0.5 0.4 -0 .1 -1 .2 -1 .1 -1 .8 -0 .9 0 .6 -0 .2 -1 .0 "irsr 0 .2 6.3 0 .0 -0 .1 -0 .2 0 .7 0.6 0.2 -0 .7 -0 .6 -1 .0 -0 .2 1. 1 0 .7 0 .8 2 .6 4-78 1-79 2 -7 9 3-7 9 4-79 l-eo 2-80 3-80 4-80 1- 8 1 2-8 1 3- 8 1 4-8 1 1 -8 2 2-82 3-82 4-8 2 m CO l 00 1 0.6 2-82 0 .7 074 2-78 3-78 1,4 70.7 1* 478 .4 1*481.1 1*477.2 1* 486.7 I N I T I A L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEOERAl. RESERVE BANK, Of S T . LOUIS JUNE 21 » 1983 12 GROSS NAT I ON AL RAT 10 S C A L E QUARTERLY TOTALS SEASONALLY TRI L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S 3.8 \ T~ ' 3.7 I > > 3 . 6 v' 3.5 £ § 3.4 § 3.3 * 3.2 1 0 9 8 CURRENT DOLLAF * S 7 6 PRODUCT AT ANNUAL ADJUSTED RATIO SCALE T R I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S 3.8 T" .7 RATES - $% § § 1's, 1N 1 > N > .6 ' ^ .5 .4 .3 +5 . 8Z^ 170$ + I.OZ +8. J Z r-T^ . - 8 .7 / / .6 .5 5 / s 2 . I .0 .9 H 0 .2 z /y 4 . ■0. 4Z .4 .3 3 / J ' / / 2 I .2 . 1*■12. OZ' / I .0 0 s .9 s I .9 .8 1 . 8 1 .7 .7 + ! 3 .0 Z ^ .6 + 1. 4X +4. 6Z +0.3Z 1. 6 ■" +r . t z .5 .4867 +5. OZ^ - 5 . 2k/ o oiCr y. z — .4 +.6. 7 Z , .3 1. 4 1972 DOLLAR* .2 1 . 2 5 V 5 £ * £ § 1.0 1 .5 t t 975 §s 11 t 976 1977 1978 $ *s 1979 t 1980 SOURCEt PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHAN6E FOR P E R IO D S LATEST DATA PLOTTED. 1ST QUARTER $ t 1981 U.S. * £ § t t 1982 1983 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE IN D IC A T E D . PREPARED BY FEDERAL R ESERV E BANK OF ST. 13 I. I L O U IS GENERAL RATIO PRICE INDEX* SCALE RATIO 1972-100 1975 •AS USED 1976 1977 IN NA TIONAL 1978 1979 1980 INCOME ACCOUNTS SOURCE: PER CE N TA GE S ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR P E R IO D S LATEST SCALE 1972-100 DATA PLOTTED« 1981 U.S. 1982 1983 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE INDICATED. 1ST QUARTER PREPARED BY FED ER AL R E SE R VE BANK OF ST. I H f U QJJ., PS P.lrATgft fPft SfiQSS ftâT I P m COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE tERMINAL QUARTER LOUIS PftQPUCT I N I T I A L QUARTER 2-78 3 -7 8 4-7 8 1-79 "'5-78 Ô.7 4-7Ö 8.9 9.1 1-7 9 8*0 8.8 8*6 2-79 8 .7 8 .7 8.5 8*5 2-7 9 3-79 4-7 9 1 -8 0 2-80 3-80 4-6 0 1972 « lOO 1-81 2-81 3-81 4 -8 1 1-82 2 -8 2 3-62 4-82 152.02 155 .38 15 8. 60 16 1. 85 3-7 9 8*4 8.4 8 .4 8*4 8 . S' 4 -7 9 8*4 8.4 8.2 8*0 7.8 7.3 1—80 8 .7 8.7 8 .6 8*6 8*7 8.9 10 .4 1 65 .12 16 8.05 17 2.31 2 —80 8 .9 8 .9 8 .9 8*9 9.1 9.3 10 .3 10 .1 3-8 0 9 .0 9.Ö 9*0 9 .0 9.2 9*4 10 .1 9 .9 9.6 4-8 0 $ .1 9 .2 9 .2 9.3 9 .4 9*6 1Ô.2 10 .1 to .ö 10. * 1 -8 1 9 .3 9.3 9.4 9*5 9*6 9*8 1Ô.3 10.3 10.3 10.7 10.9 190.01 2-81 9 .1 9.1 “9.1 9.2 9 .2 9*4— 9.7 9.6 9.4 9.4 8.8 6.8 19 3.1 7 3-81 9 .1 9.1 9*1 9 .1 9.2 9*3 9.4 9.5 9.3 9.3 8.9 7.9 9.0 4 —6 l 9 .0 9.1 9 .1 "9. 1 '' 9*2 9.4 9.2 9.2 8 .9 8.2 8.9 8.8 6 .7“ 8 .T 8 .3 7.9 7.2 7.3 6.5 4 .3 18 0. 60 18 5. 16 19 7.3 6 1-82 8 .7 8 .7 8.7 '8 .7 8*7 2 -8 2 8.5 8.4 8*4 8*4 8*4 8.4 8. £ 8.3 8.0 7.8 7 .4 6 .7 6.6 5 .9 4 .4 4 .6 3 -8 2 8.2 8 .2 8*2 8*1 8*1 8 .T 8.2 7 .9 7.7 7.4 7.0 6.4 6.3 5.6 4.6 4 .8 5.0 8.0 7.9 7*9 7.8 7*8 7.7 7.8 7 .T 7.3 7.0 6.6 6 .0 5.9 5.3 4.4 4.4 4 .4 3.7 1-8 3 7.9 7*8 7*7“ 7 .7 7*6 7.4 7.4 7.4 ~t : t 6.9 6.5 5.9 5 .8 V* • w * O' 20 1. 55 *1 CD M ' 9 .T “ 17 6.5 2 4 .7 4 .7 4.6 5.5 2 -7 8 3-78 1-79 2-79 3-7 9 4-7 9 1 -8 0 2-80 3-80 4-8 0 1- 81 2-61 1 -8 2 2-8 2 3-82 4-82 4-7 8 8*¥ 8 .9 3 -8 1 4- 8 1 20 3. 68 20 5 .9 8 2 0 8. 51 21 0.4 2 2 1 3 .2 6 I N I T I A L QUARTER PREPARED BY FÉDÉRAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS JUNE 2 1 , 1983 14 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN CURRENT DOLLARS COMPOUNOEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL QUARTER 1 OD I N I T I A L iQUARTER 3-78 4-78 1 -7 9 2-79 3-79 OOLLARS RAILS ANNUAL 4-7 9 1 -8 0 2-80 4-8 0 3-8 0 1-81 2-81 3 -8 1 4 -8 1 1-82 2-82 11 .5 12 .5 13 .4 1-79 11 .7 11 .9 10.3 2-7 9 1Ò.9 10 . i 9.4 8 .5 3 -7 9 1 1 .7 11 .8 1 1 .2 11.7 14 .9 4-7 9 12. 0 12.1 11 .8 1 2 .3 14.3 13.7 1 -8 0 11. è 11.4 11.6 11.9 13 .1 12 .2 10.7 10.4 1 0 .3 "“9.7 $.6 9.9 8.3 5.7 0 .9 3-80 ll.O 1 0 .9 TO .5 10.6 11 .Ó 10 .1 8 .9 8 .0 15 .6 4-8Ö n r 3 " n .2 1T74 11 .8 rr.4 1 1 . 6 T27cT 11 .6 Yi.ü 10.4 1 0 .7 10.7 11.(5 11. 2 10.6 10.6 15 .8 16.1 11 .5 11 .1 11.2 14 .9 14.5 1 3 .0 10 .5 1Ô.0 9.8 12 .2 11.0 8 .6 3- 8 1 ll.O I l .0 IÓ .7 10.8 11.1 10 .6 10 .1 10.1 12 .0 11.1 9.5 7.8 11.3 4-81 10 .5 10.4 10.1 10. 1 1Ô.3 4.8 9 .3 9.1 10.5 9.5 7.9 6.3 7 .3 3.4 1 -8 2 10 .3 10 .2 9 .9 9.9 10 .0 9.5 4.1 8 .9 10.1 9 .2 7 .9 6.6 7.4 5.5 2-02 10 .0 9 .9 9.6 4.6 9 .7 9.2 è .8 8.6 9.6 8.7 7.6 6.5 7.1 5.7 6.8 6. 1 3—02 9.9 9.8 4.5 4. 5 9.6 9 .1 8.7 8.5 9.4 8.7 7.7 6.8 7.3 6.3 7.3 7.1 8.1 0o•9 3-78 4-7 8 1,411.3 1,4 4 6 .3 1,4 7 6 .0 1,528.3 1,5 78.0 1,6 18.7 1,6 2 2 .2 1 ,6 82.0 1,745.8 1,7 9 9 .9 4 .4 1,8 1 9 .4 1 ,868.6 1 ,8 84.5 7.6 1,9 1 9 .4 1,9 47.8 1,986.3 9.8 4. 5 4.5 9.5 9.1 8.8 8 .6 9.4 8.7 7.9 7.1 7.6 6 .9 7.8 7 .8 8 .7 9 .3 9.6 9 .4 9.2 9.2 4 .2 8.8 8.4 8.2 8.9 8.3 7.5 6 .8 7.1 6 .5 7 .1 7 .0 7.3 6.8 4 .4 2-7 8 3-78 1 -7 9 2-79 3 -7 9 4-7 9 0 co 2 -8 0 3-80 4-80 1-81 2-81 3 -8 1 4 -8 1 1-82 3-62 4 -8 2 1 9.8 1-83 1 4-8 2 00 2-Ö1 4-82 1,3 6 7 .5 11 . 5 I-Ö 1 3-82 2-9 2,0 3 0 .8 2,0 5 2 .9 I N I T I A L QUARTER PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN 1972 OOLLARS ¿ÔMKMlÔÉÔ -ANNUAL RATES iOF CHANGE TERMINAL QUARTER 2 - 7 8 ^ 3^78 3 -7 8 B I L L I O N * Of DOLLAR* ANNUAL RATES I N I T I A L QUARTER 4^78 1 -7 4 “ 2^74"“ i - 7 4 " 4 - 7 4 1- 8 0 2-80 3-8 0 4-80 1-81 2-81 3 -8 1 4- 8 1 1-82 2 -8 2 4-82 908.6 4 -7 8 *71 4 .7 1-7 9 3 .0 2 .8 0.9 9 1 9 .2 2= 7? " 2.0 1 .6 0.1 -0 .7 2 .6 “7 . 5 1.7 2.1 571 4 -7 9 " 2 .8 ~ 2.6 2.1 2 .5 4 .2 373 1- 8 0 2.3 2.1 1 .5 177" ' 2 . 5 1 .3 N 1 00 O 9 2 1 .2 3-7 9 0 .8 ~ 0.5 -0 .2 -0 .5 3-80 1 .3 1 .1 075 0 .5 0.7 - 0 .3 -1 .5 -1 .9 5.4 4=50 1 .7 1 .6 1.2 1 .2 1 .6 0 .9 0 .3 Ô.6 5.6 5 .7 1 -8 1 2.0 1 .8 1.5 1.6 1.4 175“ 1 .1 175 5. 2 5.0 4 .4 2^81 1.6 1 .4 1 .1 1 .1 1.4 0 .8 0.4 0 .6 3 .1 2.4 0 .8 919.5 930.9 9 3 8 .6 -0 .7 - 0 . 4 _ - 2 72_ —4 . 8 9 3 7 .0 -8 .7 915.8 928.0 941.0 95 1 .1 -2 .7 944.6 3= ïïl----- l.T 1.5 1. 3 1.3 1 .5 1 .1 Ô .8 1 .0 3 .1 ¿ .5 1.5 0 .1 2 .9 4-8 1 1 .3 1.2 079 0 .9 1 .0 0 .6 0 .3 0.4 2 .0 1.3 0.3 -1 .1 -0 .3 -3 .3 1-82 1 . 4 " " '1 .3 170~ 1 .0 1 .2 0 .8 0 .5 0 .6 2 .1 1.5 0 .7 -0 .2 0 .6 -0 .5 2.4 2 -8 2 1. 5 " 1 . 3 1 .1 1 .1 1.3 0 .4 Ö. 7 0.8 2 .1 1 .7 1 .0 Ò .3 1 .1 0.5 2.5 2.5 1 .3 m 1 .1 1 .2 0.9 0.7 0.8 1 .4 1 .5 0.9 0 .4 1 .0 0 .5 0 .5 » OB N 3-82 3.4 “T . 4 951.4 943.4 9 4 9 .1 955.0 1 .8 1.5 4-82 1.6 ' 1.5 1.3 1.3“ 1 .4 1.2 1 .0 1 .2 2.2 1.6 1 .4 1 .0 1 .6 1 .3 2.5 2 .5 2 .5 4 .6 1 -8 3 1.6 1.5 \7T~ î . r 1 .5 1 .3 1 .1 1 .3 2.2 1.9 1 .5 1 .1 1 .7 1.5 2.5 2.5 2 .5 3.5 2 .5 2-78 3-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-7 9 1- 8 0 2-80 3- 8 0 4-80 1-81 2-81 3-81 4 -8 1 1 -8 2 2-82 3-62 4-<L2 4-78 956.3 9 6 7 .0 972.9 I N I T I A L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE ÖANK OF S T . JUNE 2 1 , 1983 15 LUU1S GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE 2-79 3-79 4-79 1 -8 0 2-80 3 -8 0 4-80 1 0 .9 15.5 1 -7 9 9.2 1 0 .7 6 .0 2-7 9 10.2 11 .5 9.6 1 3 .3 8.8^ 9.5 7.5 8.3 3.4 4.8 4 .5 1.9 0.5 -5 .3 -1 3 .3 1-80 5 .1 4.9 2 .9 2.1 -1 .3 -3 .6 0 .3 -0 .5 -3 .0 -4 .7 -8 .7 -12 .4 -12 .0 -2 7 .7 3-8 0 -0 .5 -1 .5 -3 .5 -5 .0 -8 .3 -11 .1 -10 .3 -1 7 .9 -0 .7 -2 .8 -4 .0 -1 .6 -4 .3 10.1 30 .2 4 .6 3.6 3.6 7.4 7.5 22 .7 40.8 5 2 .2 1 O - 1-79 4-7 8 4-8Ô ^ 4-78 3-78 6.4 IS» 1 00 o 2-7 8 5-7 6 3-7 9 B1LL1ÛH* OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RAIL * I N I T I A L QUARTER TERMINAL QUARTER 1-81 2-8 1 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 39 4. 6 41 5. 1 4 2 8 .3 4 3 1 .9 4 1 6 .8 7 .1 424.0 39 1. 0 -6 .9 38 4.1 2.5 1.7 st 6.0 5.9 4 .9 2-91 7.0 T.Ó " 6 72 ’■■■'6V2" 5 .4 5.6 9.2 9.6 21.6 3 2 .9 34.3 1 8 .5 3 -8 t 7 .1 772 ' 6 .5 6.5 " 5.8 6.1 9.2 9.5 1 9 .0 26.5 25.3 13.7 9.1 4 -8 1 5.5 5.5 4.7 4 .5 3.7 3.7 6. 1 5.9 12.9 17 .3 14 .3 3 .9 -2 .8 Î-S 2 1 .8 1.4 0.4 -0 .0 -1 .2 -1 .6 -0 .2 -1 .1 3.4 5.3 0 .9 -9 .0 2-82 2 .7 2 .4 1.5 1 .2 0.2 -0 .0 1.4 0.8 5.1 6.9 3 .4 -4 .3 - 4-81 4 0 9 .1 O .t i 3- 8 1 4 1 0 .3 45 5.7 4 7 5 .5 486.0 -1 3 .3 -16 .6 -2 7 .2 -9 .3 468.9 -38 .8 -1 4 .7 -15 .3 -8 .8 -7 .2 4 1 4 .8 17.1 4 3 1 .5 3-82 5.2 5.0 2.2 1 .9 1. 1 0 .9 2 .3 1.8 5.7 7 .^ 4.5 -1 .8 -5 .5 4-8 2 0 .2 -0 .2 -l.t -17 5 -2 .5 -3 .0 -2 .1 -2 .9 0.1 0 .9 -2 .3 -8 .3 -12 .2 1-83 1 .7 1 .5 Ô .4 -0 .4 -0 .7 0 .4 -0 .2 2. 8 3.8 1.2 -3 .8 -6 .6 -9 .0 -8 .1 1.7 -3 .0 -9 .5 34 .6 2 -7 8 3-78 1 -7 9 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-8 0 2 -8 0 3-80 4-80 1-8 1 2-8 1 3 -8 1 4- 8 1 1-8 2 2 -8 2 3 -8 2 4-82 6 .7 " 4-78 -1 5 .9 -16 .5 1 4 .2 11.4 443.3 -7 .4 -1 7 .7 -3 9 .2 3 9 1. 5 42 1.7 I N I T I A L QUARTER GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN 1972 OOLLARS OF CHANGE 'ANNUAL RATES 1 annual 2 -7 5 3 -7 9 4 -7 8 4 -7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 ' 3-79 ' 4-7 9 3 .0 ■ Q .5 “ T79 -2 .7 -4 .3 -7 .(5 -8 .8 -4 .3 -67 5' - 7 .Ö ' - i ' ó . ' i - Ï 1 . 9 " -6 .6 -12 .8 -1 8 .6 CD 1 1 -8 2 2-82 3-62 —5 . 5 1 ‘ -ô .F ~ ■-0.6 CO 3-81 IM -175“ - 1 . 3 22 5 .3 —4 . 5 222.7 -1 9 .7 -5 5 .4 - 1 0 . 6 - 1 2 . 0 - 1 4 .2 - 1 6 . 0 - i s . r -2 0 .0 -2 .5 " " - 2 . 8 - 2 76” 201.9 - 5 .2 199.2 -7 .0 =n~ir - 9 . 6 -9.4 -7 .0 -7.8 7.8 22. 6 -5 7 9 " -4 .2 -4.8 —4 .4 -1 .5 - 0 .5 13 .2 2 3 .8 24.9 -2.1 -2.2 -2 .T -1.9 2.4 13.7 20.8 1 9 .9 1.2" 209.6 221.6 22 9. 5 1 5 .0 233.4 -1 .3 ' -1 .4 -1 .5 -0.8 5 .2 12.5 1 7 .2 15 .4 10 .9 7.0 -37 3 -3 .5 -3 .8 -37 3 -1.4 -r r o 3 .5 7.8 4.4 -1.6 -9 .0 -22.6 -6 .8 -T 7 4 " -7 .5 -6 7 F -6 .3 -1 .9 -1 .3 -5 .5 -19 .3 -2 9 .9 <571 0.9 -2 .5 -770 - 1 1 . 9 - 1 7 . 4 - 1 4 . 6 14.9 1.0 1.6 -0 .9 -4 .7 -8.2 -11.6 -7 .6 11.5 8.1 -1 7 .5 -16 .2 -8.0 -17.7 -37.4 1 -8 2 ■- 5 . T " - 5 . 5 -674 2-8 2 ‘- 4 . 2 “ 275" -1 1.8 21 8. 9 19 5. 4 -36 .5 -4 .2 -5 .Ö -5 .6 ' -472" - 4 . 2 3-82 -3.3 "" - 3 . 5 -4 .2 _- ^ 4 . 4 -4 .7 -4.5 -5 .^ -T 7 0 " 4 -8 2 -5 . 8 -5 .9 -6 .T -t : i -7.5 -7 .6 —6 . 6 -6 . 8 ' -5 .8 ' -5 .6 -6 .4 -10.2 -1 3 .9 1-83 - 4 . T " -4 .1 ^37 t “ -5 .2 " -4 -.T -4 .1 -0 .9 -0 .5 -2 .6 -5 .6 -8.4 -1 0 .8 -8.2 0.7 -3.7 -9.1 32.0 2-79 4-79 1- 8 0 2-80 3-80 4-80 1-81 2-81 3 -8 1 4-81 1-8 2 2-82 3-82 4-82 2-78 rates 4-8 2 23 7.2 CO -3 .5 " CD o 4- 8 1 24 1 .3 “-0 .9 ~ -0 .3 CD o 3 -8 1 24 1 .5 -5 .3 N) 1 2-8 1 -1 .2 -7 .9 ~ - 8 . 5 • 1-81 ■ -o ;7 ' ■ - Ö 7 T - 8 .3 “ ^ 9 . 0 - 1 1 .4 - 1 3 .3 - 1 6 .3 -1 9 .5 o 4 -8 0 2 4 2. 2 -4 .2 ” > 1 o } -8 0 236 .0 ""0.9“ 4-81 2-8 0 1 .^ ” T . 2 “ 1 -7 9 1-Ql 1 -8 0 ■=3-;y 4 -7 9 " " 5 -7 8 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 B I L L IO N S OF DOLLAR* I N I T I A L QUARTER TERHTWa QUARTER ■ 3-78 -T 7 3 " -5 .7 ' -5 .0 4-78 1-79 3-79 202.3 2 0 6. 3 18 3.5 19 6. 7 I N I T I A L QUARTER PREPAREO BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF *T . LOUIS JUNE 21» 1983 16 government purchases qf good s and serv ices in current dollars COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL bl LL lQ fr S QP DOLLARS I N I T I A L QUARTER 1 3-78 * 2- 7 8 00 Q U A R TE R ________________________________________________ _____ ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ A N N U A L 2-79 1-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 3- 80 2-80 4-80 3-78 14 . 8 4- 78 13.0 11. 2 1^79 " 1Ó.3 8.2 5.2 2-79 9.4 7.7 6.Ó 6.8 3- 79 1071“ Ö. 9 8 .2 9 . 7 “ 12. 6 4-79 “ 11. 2 10. 5 ro.3 12 . 1 14.Ô 16 . 9 1-80 12. 2 11. 0 11.9 1 3 .¿ 16.Ô "17.r 18. 5 ' '2-^0 ‘ 12. 4 12 . 0 12 . 2 15. ¿ 15.Í 16.à 16 . 0 13 . 6 3 - 3 0 ~ 117 T T O 77 " r o . ¿ 11.6 12. 6 T2.ÏT 11. 1 7.6 1. 9 13:2 12 . 5 10.6 9. 1 16.8 12 . 7 T 1 . 3 10.6 13.2 13. 7 8.8 11.2 8.5 ' 4-8Ö ' 11T9- 11.2 2- 81 3-81 4- 8 1 1-82 2-82 3- 8 2 451. 1 456.9 464.5 11.4 “ i r . 5 ' 478.5 497.6 I I . "6 n . 7 12.5 13.“î ~ T 3 . ¿ T 10. 9 10. 8 11.5 12.1 12. ö 11.2 2-81 ' 3- 5 1 ' 11. 3 “ 11.73 "T Ö . 9 " i r . _5 ■ i 2 : r T 2 T Ö “ I T T 3" 519. 2 9.7 10. 1 536.0 538. 5 9 .5 55V.8 583. 2 9.7 1. 8 ï 2. 2 11. 8 11 . 5 ri.6 12 . 2 12.7 12 . 7 1772 11. 3 TÖ .T 12.6 ir r 9 n . r 15. 3 18.6 1- 8 Z 11. 1 “TO .9 10. 8 11 . 3 11. 7 11. 6 1T.T 10. 2 9.7 1T. 0 9.9 9.0 10. 9 10 . 2 2-82 ' 10. 4 10.1 ' r o . 1' 10.4 10 .f 10.6 10.0 9.0 8.5 9.5 8.3 t.2 8.2 6.9 1.5 0.5 3-82 10.6 To.^r T O . 3 “ 10'. 7 1(5.3 ■' 9.5 9.1 10 . 0 9.1 8.3 9.3 8.6 5.4 7.0 13.9 ' 1079 10.7 10. 7 T T 7 0 9.8 l'ô."7 10.0 9.4 10. 4 10.1 8.1 10.0 15. 1 16 . 3 —\-m - 10. 3 lb.IT 2- 78 3- 78 I T . CT TÏ T. S“ n .T - 578. 1 3.6 *-81 “~4 - 9 2 R A I L S ___ 4-82 439.3 11. 7 T I 1- 81 1-81 600.2 626. 3 630. 1 2.4 630.9 651.7 11. 3 i ô va 10. 1 1Ô. 0 1Ö. 3 “ T O . T “ 10. 4 9.9 9.2 8. Ô 9.5 8.8 8.2 8.8 8.3 6. 3 7.3 9.7 7.7 -0.3 4-78 1- 79 2-79 4— 79 1-80 2-80 3- 80 4-80 1- 81 2- 81 3- 8 1 4-81 1- 8 2 2- 82 3-82 4- 82 Tl.~4 3-79 67 6. 8 676.3 I N I T I A L QUARTER GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES IN 1972 DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES 1OF change ô ILLIUN * TERMINAL QUARTER I N I T I A L QUARTER 7-79 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3- 80 4-80 1-81 3-81 4- 8 1 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1- 79 TT.4“ 2- 79 1. 2 0.0 -0.6 0.6 3-79 1. 5 0.7 0.5 T.T 2.* * < 276. 8 3.0 l.B “ 1 .3 1. 3 1-80 2.3 1. 9 1.3 -0.3 ~ 2 . 4 ' ”“2 . 1 2-80 27 7. 7 "-T79 " 276.4 27 6. 8 27 8. 8 273 3.2“ 3.5 r .o ' " 3 . Ö 3. 9“ 4.3 571 Z.2 3.0 3.5“ 3.9 4.1 281. 2 28 4 . 7 3.1 286.9 ' 1. 6 1. 2 1.7 1.9 1.6 1.0 -0.9 -4.8 4- ffü- " 1. 4 1.0“ 1. 0 1.4 1 . 5“ T.3” Ö. 7 ~=ö.7 -2. 6 —0. 3 1- 8 1 I.T 174 1.4 1.9 2. 0 1. 9 1.6 0.7 -Ô.0 2. 4 57 2 Z-81T 1.2 0.9 Ö. 9 1.2 1. 3 1. 0 0.6 -0.2 -1.0 0. 2 0.5 -4.0 3-8T 1. 4 "1.1 1. 1 1.4 1. 4 1. 1 0.4 ^5'. r 1.1 1.5 -0.3 3- 80 2- 81 4. Ö 4-78 1 s "3-79 3- 7 8 “T . ? 283.4 28 3. 2 2 86. 8 28 3. 9 3. 6 28 6 . 4 4-81 T. 9 1.6 1.6 1.9 2. 1 2.0 1. 8 1. 3 1. 0 2TT 2.9 2.1 5. 3 7.0 T-97 1. 5 1. 3 r.3 1.5 1*6 1. 5 173 0.8 0.5 1.4 1.7 0.8 2. 5 2.0 -2.9 2-92 ' 1. 1 0.8 Ô. 8 l.ô T.ö“ 0.8 0.6 0.1 -Ó.3 Ô."? 0.5 -0.4 0.5 -0.5 -4.1 -5.3 29 1 . 3 2 8 9. 2 28 5 . 3 1. 3“ 1.3 173 1. 5 1.6 1. 4 1.3 0.9 0.6 1.3 1.6 1. 0 2. 0 1.6 -0.1 1.3 8.4 4 - 8 2 ““ 2. Ö“ 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.3“ 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.7 2. 5 2.8 2.5 3. 6 3.6 2.8 4.8 10.2 12. 1 1. 5“ 1. 2 1. 2 1. 4 "1.5“ 1. 4 1.2 0.9 Ô. 7 ■ r .T 1. 4 1.0 1. 7 1.4 0.3 1.1 3.3 0.9 -9.2 3- 78 4-78 1- 7 9 3-79 4- 79 1- 8 0 3- 80 4-80 1-81 2- 81 3-81 4- 8 1 1- 8 2 2-82 3- 8 2 4-82 00 UJ 1 3-92 2-78 Vf DOLLARS ANfiyA u_ 2-79 2-80 INITIAL 291. 1 299.5 29 2 . 4 QUARTER PREPARED JUNE 21* 17 FEDERAL R E S E R V E BANK 01- S T . 1983 8Y LOUIS * .... DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOHE IN CURRENT DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL QUARTER blLLlOMSt OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RAT t S I N I T I A L QUARTER 2-7 8 3-7 8 3 -7 6 13 .0 4-7 8 1 3 .0 13.0 4-7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3-79 4 -7 9 1-8 0 2 -8 0 3- 8 0 4-8 0 3- 8 1 4-81 1-8 2 2-82 3-82 4-82 1*496.2 12 .6 1 2 .1 11 .* 10.8 3 -? 9 12 .1 11.9 1 1 .* ti .2 13.0 4-7 9 11.6 11 .5 11.2 10.6 11 .* 10.1 1-8 0 1 1 .9 1 1 .7 1 1 .5 1 1 .3 11 .9 1 1 .4 12.1 2-8 0 10 .8 1 0 . 5~ 10.0 9 .6 9.7 8.6 7.9 3.2 1 1 .3 11 .1 10.8 10.6 10 .8 10.2 10 .3 9 .1 15 .3 1 1 .4 1 1Y3 ÏÏ7 T 1ó . 9 1 l'.T " 10 .8 i 1. 0 1 0 .4 14 .2 13.0 11 .? 11 .4 11.2 1 1 .1 1 1 .3 11. 0 11 .2 1 0 .9 13 .5 12.6 1 2 .3 0 CD 1 12 .7 11 .9 r 1-79 1 -8 1 2-81 1* 542 .7 2-7 9 4-8 0 1-81 1*587 .5 9 .5 1*624 .0 1*6 74.3 1*7 14.9 1*7 66 .9 1*7 81 .0 1* 845.5 1* 902.9 1 *9 58 .7 2-81 11.2“ 11.1 1 0 .9 1 0 .7 ” 10.9" 10 .6 1 0 .7 10.3 T Î.Ï 11.1 10.1 7.9 3 -8 1 1 1 .4 1 1 .7 1 1 .1 11 . 0 11.1 1 0 .9 V I. Ô 10.8 12 .3 li.6 11.2 10 .6 13.3 4-8 1 11 .7 11.0 1 0 .9 1 0 .7 1 0 .9 ' Í076 1 0 . 7 ” 10 .4 T l.T 10 .9 10 . 4 9.8 10.8 8 .3 1-82 1076“ 10.4 10 .2 9.* io .4 9.6 8 .9 8.1 8 .1 5.6 3.0 4 .8 173 .T ~ l o . r - 9.8 9 .6 1 *9 96 .5 2 * 06 0 .0 2* 10 1 .4 2*1 17.1 N no 1 0 .2 10 .Ó 9.8 9 .S 9.5 9 .5 9. 1 9.9 9 .2 8.5 7.8 7.8 6 .0 10 .3 10 .1 9 .9 9.7 9.Ö 9.5 9.4 9.1 9.8 9.1 8.6 8 .0 8.0 6.7 6.2 7 .8 8.9 4-Ô 2 10 .0 9.6 9 .6 <>.4 9.4 9 .1 9. 1 8.7 9.3 8.7 8.1 7.5 7.5 6 .3 5.8 6.8 6 .9 4 .9 1-83 9.6 "ST*" 9 ;t ~ 9 .0 8.8 8 .7 8.3 8.8 8.2 7.7 7.1 7.0 6.0 5.5 6.1 6 .0 4.5 2- 78 3-78 2-79 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 1 -8 0 2 -8 0 3-80 4-8 0 1-8 1 2-8 1 3- 8 1 4- 8 1 1-8 2 2 -8 2 1 N 10 .3 3-82 4-7 8 1-79 6 .7 2*1 51 .5 2*198.1 2* 22 4 .3 4 .2 2* 247.2 4-8 2 I N I T I A L QUARTER DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN 1972 DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE " TEftHIHAL Ö IL L I C N 4 QF DOLLARS ANNUAL MTfcS I N I T I A L QUARTER QUARTER 2 -7 F “ "5-75" 4-79 1- 8 0 2-80 3 -8 0 4-8 0 1-81 2-8 1 3 -8 1 4 -8 1 1- 82 2 -8 2 3-62 4-82 4 .5 473 r-7< r 3 .9 374 “773“ 2.9 2 .4 1.4 Ö. 2 - 3-79 3773 2.6 "270 " 1 .7 3 .2 1* 019.8 4 -7 9 2 .5 2T.T 1 .5 “ 1.2 1 . 7 "" 071 1*020.1 1.2 oo N 1 4 -7 8 9 9 4 .2 1* 004 .8 1*0 11 .1 1* 01 1 .7 1.4 076” 07tr -0 .4 3 -8 0 1 .6 ““ " 1 7 7 0.8 0 . 5 ’ “ÏT. 5 ' - 0 . 2 -0 .7 “ -0 .9 5 .1 4 -8 0 1 .7 1T4" I.T T 0.8 0 .9 0 .5 0 .5 ' 0 .4 4 .1 3 .0 1 -8 1 1.9 T 7 6 “ " 1.3 " r.2 - T .3 1.0 IT2“ l .T ~ 3 .9 3;3 377" 2 -8 1 T78 1 .5 1.1 1 . 2 " "0.9"” 171 1.1 3 .1 274 "271" 0.6 2.0 1.8 1.6 1 .5 1.6 1 .4 1 .6 l.t 3.4 3.0 3.0 T .? 4.6 4 -8 1 ' 27Ü 1 .8 1 .5 1"74" r.6 1 .4 i :t 1.6 371 2.6 2.6 2.2 3.0 1.2 1 -8 2 T . 7 " 1 .5 1 .3 T77" 1 .3 i:i r .T 1.2 2.3 1 .9 1 .7 “ ' T . l 1.3 -0 .4 1.3 1 .4 77* 2.0 1.9 T .* 1 .Ô 0.8 0.6 3. 1 173” 1.4 2 .3 2.0 1.6 1 .5 1 .7 0.9 0.6 2.2 1.3 o 1 .9 1 .1 i 2 .3 2-8 0 1 DO 2 -8 2 ' 3 -t9 ■Ç.'T“ “ " 4 -7 6 “ 1-79"" 2^79 3 -7 5 173 “ 1 .8 " 1 . 6 1 .5 ' -0 .6 0.6 " T .T -1 .9 “ -2 ; Ö 1*0 22 .8 - 5 “. 6~ 1*0 05 .5 1* 018.2 1* 02 5 .7 1* 035 .0 1 *0 36 .6 1* 048 .6 1* 05 1 .9 1* 046 .9 -1 .9 1*0 54 .8 1 .4 1.3 1 . 4 ■ 1 . 2" 3 -8 2 'IV8 l.è "1 .4 1 .3 r."4 l.T 4 -8 2 l.T 1 .5 1 .3 r.^ 1 .3 T72"" 1 .3 1 .3 271 rry 1.6 1 .3 1 .4 0.6 0 .7 1.6 0.8 0.3 '" i r r " " 1 . 5 1 .4 "T T 3" 1 .2 1 .3 i.ir 2 .1 t.è 1.7 " T .4 1. 6 1.0 1.0 1 .7 1.3 1 .3 2.2 4 -7 8 1-7 9 3 -7 9 4-7 9 2-80 3 -8 0 4-80 1-81 2-81 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 3 -8 2 4-82 1 -8 3 2- 7 8 3-78 1.4- " 2-79 1 -8 0 1* 058.3 1*059.1 1* 06 5 .0 I N I T I A L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST* LOUIS JUNE 21* 1983 18 CORPORATE PROFITS AFTER TA XES » COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHAN6E TERMINAL QUARTER INITIAL 2-78 17.1 4-78 23.1 29.5 1-79 16.1 15.6 1-79 4-78 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-8 0 3-80 4-80 1-81 2-81 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-62 149.9 159.9 3.3 161.2 2-79 14.2 13.2 5.8 8.4 3-79 13.9 13.1 8.2 10.7 4-79 9.4 8.0 3.2 3.2 0.6 -10.4 li.D 1Ô.0 ¿.5 7.3 6.9 3.9 20.6 -2.2 —6 . 6 -8.5 -12.3 -19.4 -23.5 -51.5 36.2 A ° ' 3-78 3-7e B I L L I O N S OF DOLLAR ó ANNUAL KAT £S QUARTER 164.5 13.0 169.6 165.0 172.9 2-86 Ô .T" 3-80 3.6 2.0 -1.4 -Z.2 -4.2 - 8 71 -7.3 -18.7 4-80 3.Ô 2.4 -076' -l'.l -2.6 -375“ -4.2 - l l .2 20.0 5.8 1-81 4.3“ 3 .r er.3 <5.1 -l.o -3.2 -1.7 -6.5 16.3 7.4 9.2 2-81 0.5 -Ô .9 -3.5 -4.2 -5.7 -8.1 -7.7 -12.6 1.3 -8.2 -14.5 -33.0 3-81 “T .-* 75". 2 -2 T T ” -7.6" -3.8 -F .T -5.0 -8.7 3.6 -3.3 -6.1 -12.9 4-81 0.2 -1 .0 1-82 -5.8 -773 2-62 -5.2"' -6 .5 " -877 -57?" 144.3 155.9 158.1 161.6 146.2 13.2 150.8 -378 -4.9 -6.8 -6.3 -9.6 0.3 -5.7 -8.3 -13.5 -1.8 -10.6 -12.2 -14.4 -14.8 -18.4 -12.2 -18.4 -22.5 -28.8 -27.4 -41.8 -60.3 —9 . 6 -1Ô.9 -12.Ô -13.1 -16.2 -10.2 -15.4 -18.5 -23.1 -20.5 -2 9 .3 -35.6 4.6 ^ 9 .4 7.8 -14.8 144.9 115.0 116.3 3-B2" -4.3 -3 .3 " -775“ ' - 8 . 2 = IT7 l -13.8 -8.1 -12.5 -14.8 -18.3 -15.0 -20.8 -22.7 4-82 -4.4 -5 .5 -T.3 ' -8 .0 -9 .1 -10.6 -1 0. 6 -13.0 -7.8 -11.7 -13.6 -16.5 -13.4 -17.9 -18.6 3.4 1-83 -5.0 -¿ .1 -r :v -8.6 -9.6 -ll.T T -11.1 -13.3 -8.6 -12.2 -14.0 -16.5 -13.8 -1 7 .6 -18.2 -2.0 -4 .1 -1 0 .9 -16.5 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4—79 1-80 2-80 3-80 1-81 2-81 3-81 4-81 l-e z 2-82 A -3 2 INITIAL 4-8 0 11.1 2.8 119.4 -4.9 3-62 117.9 112.7 QUARTER * NATIONAL IUCOWE BASTS PREPARED 8 Y FEDERAL JUNE 21» 1983 RESERVE 6ANK HISTORICAL SOURCES OF NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS DATA The NIPA estimates for 1929-76 are in The National Income and Product Accounts of the United States, 1929-76: Statistical Tables (Stock number (503-010-00101-1, price $10.00). Estimatesfor 1977-81 appear in the July 1982 Survey of Current Business. Estimates for the periods since, appear- Tn subsquent issues of the monthly Survey of Current Business. These publications present the results of the comprehensive revision of the national income and product accounts described in the December 1980 Survey, and are available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. For further information, write to the National Income and Wealth Division (BE-54) Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230. 19 OF ST. LOUIS I N V E N T O R I E S COMPARED WI TH MONTHLY S A L E S * M A N U F A C T U R I N G AND TRADE 68 .6 8 64 60 . 56 56 .52 52 . 48 48 . 44 44 40 . 36 36 . 32 32 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 * RAT I OS BASED ON S E A S O N A L L Y S HADED AREAS REPRESENT * *DATA REVISED LATEST D AT A FROM 1974 ADJUSTED PERIODS OF 1975 1976 1977 1978 DATA. BUSINESS 1979 SOURCE: 1980 1981 U . S . DEPARTMENT 1982 OF 1983 C OMME R C E RECESSIONS. 1977. PLOTTED: APRIL PRELIMINARY PREPARED 20 BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
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