Full text of National Economic Trends : June 1981
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n m i o n m Economic m n o s PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K O F ST. LOUIS M O N T H ENDlMii M a y 31, 1981 RELEASED: June 30, 1981 Productivity has risen since the 1980 trough in real G N P , but its performance has been poor in comparison to the past. The nation's output of goods and services has increased at a 4.9 pereSfft knaiwtbj*&te since the second quarter of 1980. This growth has exceeded the 1.3 percent rate of eicpansion of civilian employment, so that real G N P per worker has risen at a 3.5 percent rate. A rebound in productivity is typical of periods following business recessions. Indeed, from World War II to 1973, these rebounds were strong enough to restore productivity to the level implied by preceding trend growth. Since 1973, however, this has not been the case. In the first quarter of this year, real G N P per worker recovered the prior peak level attained two years earlier. But this measure of productivity had risen at only a 0.4 percent rate from its prior cyclical peak, in the first quarter of 1973, to the first quarter of 1979. As a result, real G N P per worker in the first quarter was only 3.3 percent higher than the level achieved eight years earlier. In contrast, over the 20-year period ending in early 1973, this measure of productivity rose at a trend rate of 2.0 percent each year. In addition, the recent cyclical rebound in productivity has been weak when compared to the initial three quarters of prior expansions. During the first three quarters of expansion from the trough of the 1973-75 recession, G N P per civilian worker rose at a 4.3 percent rate. The average rate of expansion during the first three quarters for earlier postwar recessions was 6.5 percent. Productivity as measured by output per hour in the private business sector has shown the same dismal performance in the recent expansion and over the last eight years as G N P per worker. The growth rates of output per hour are lower than those for output per worker because of a secular tendency for hours per worker to decline. In addition, cyclical movements in hours per worker amplify those of output per hour so that output per worker exhibits greater declines during recessions and larger rebounds during the early phase of an expansion. Despite growth at a 1.5 percent rate since the cyclical trough in the second quarter of last year, output per hour has not regained its peak achieved in the third quarter of 1977. Moreover, it expanded at only a 1.2 percent rate between the cyclical peaks in the first quarter of 1973 and the third quarter of 1977. The trend growth in this measure over the prior 20 years was 2.8 percent per year, in contrast to the 0.6 percent rate achieved over the past eight years. Since 1973, the pattern of productivity growth has diverged from past trend and cyclical movements. The dominant factor has been the sharp increase in the price of energy resources in 1973-74 and 1979-81 that rendered some productive capacity economically obsolete. Higher energy costs lowered the value of the productivity of existing capital without lowering its replacement cost. Consequently, investment in plant and equipment slowed temporarily, contributing to a slower pace of productivity growth than would have been expected due to cyclical factors alone. TOTAL C IV IL IA N EMPLOYMENT COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE T E R M IN A L M ON TH OF 10-79 11-79 12-79 1-80 IN IT IA L PERSO NS 2-80 M ON TH 3-80 THO USAND S 4-80 5^80 6=80 11-79 078 12-79 272 375 1-8 0 1.1 T73 -0 .9 2-80 1*2 1 .3 0 .2 1 .3 0 .4 - 0 .6 - 0 .5 -2 *3 =<TT7 = T77 = 776 = 575 - 4 .8 - 0 .8 - 1 .6 - 1 .8 - 2 .8 - 3 .1 - 1 .3 - 1 ,3 -¿ * o -¿ * 3 “ -5*1 - 3 .4 - ¿ * 7 - - 4 . 1 ------------------------------------- 3-80 0 *5 4-05 = 774 5-80 -0 *6 —6^50----- 7 -8 6 7=80 8=80 $-80 16-80 11-80 f= 8 l 2^81 5=51 4^81 1.0 ' " 9 f t 781 97*765“ 9 7 ,8 1 7 9 7 ,6 2 8 $ 7 ,2 2 5 9 7 ,1 1 6 “ ---------- — -W T 7ÎZ T -" = 7 ^ — =775— =T7*— =T75— =770— =175— =7)79— =777------2 7 7 ~ 8 -6 0 -6 *5 -6 *7 -1 *5 = 175“ -1 *7 - 1*5 -6 *7 9-80 =073 =774 =775 =775 =T71 =(375 =771 16 -8 6-------=77?— =775— =777— =777 =779 -6 * 7 — =777-------- 777------- T73-------575------- 171— 11-80 ^ÔTT = 772 = 775 = 775 = 777 = 774 177 T77“ 12-80 -7 7 1 -7 7 2 -7 7 5 -7 7 5 =777 =775 771 773 T77 777 779 77* 775 =777 1-81 0 *2 0 *2 -0 *1 - 0 *0 -0 *1 0 *1 0 *6 0 *9 1 .6 1 .4 1 .7 1 .6 2 .0 2 .2 2-81 0 .4 0 .3 0 .1 0 .2 0 .1 0 *3 0 *9 1 *1 1 *8 1 *6 1*9 1 .9 2 .2 2 .4 4 .0 2 .9 3 -8 1 577------- 077 075 076 076 Ö7ö T73 T76 271 777 77? 776 577 573 477 471 7 -8 rT 7 1 ~ 5 -8 l 12-80 ' 9 7 *?»0 T T71-------------- 77$ F77 10-79 172 11-79 T7Ô 12-79 777 - 6 * 5 ----- 1 7 4 -----7 7 7 “ ¡372 T77 57? T7* "77? F71 TT* “ 9 7 V 3 ‘5 ^ _ 9 7 ,2 8 2 5 .2 9 7 *6 9 6 ' 9 7 ,9 2 7 671 9 8 ,4 1 2 T77 F75-------- 175-------771------- 777-------777------- 571------- 572-------377-------571------- 573-------573-------S76------- 7 7 T Ï7 2 Î7 4 T79 272 778 778 371 372 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 5-80 6-80 7-80 8-80 9-80 CO M PO U N D ED 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 5-80 579 479 475 §7 s 571 10-80 11-80 12-80 1-81 2-81 3-81 ^ 5 ,9 7 6 577" “ W ,7 3 5 ~ 4-61 E M P L O Y M E N T _____________ ANNUAL 6-80 576 M O N TH IN IT IA L 12-79 ~$7727*~ 1715 ______________ P A Y R O L L 11-79 9 7 ,1 0 0 T7T~ Î7 7 IN IT IA L T E R M IN A L M O N TH 10-79 ------------------------------------------------- $ 7 , 7 7 : 5 ~ T7I RATES OF CHANGE THO USAND S OF P E R S O N S M O N TH 7-80 8-80 9-80 10-80 11-80 12-80 1-81 2-81 3-81 4-81 9 0 ,5 5 2 11-79 1 ,5 12-79 1 ,6 1 *7 1-80 2 *6 3 *2 4 *8 2-80 2 *5 2 *8 3 *4 3-80 1 *9 2 *0 2 *1 0 *7 -0 *6 4-80 1 *1 1 *1 0 *9 -0 *4 -1 *5 -2 *5 5-80 0 *1 -0 *2 -0 *6 -1 *8 -3 *1 -4 *4 -6 *2 6-80 -0 *7 -1 *0 -1 *4 -2 *6 -3 *7 -4 *7 -5 *8 -5 *4 7-80 -0 *8 -1 *1 -1 *3 " - ¿*1 -3 *4 -4 *1 -4 *7 -3 *$ - ¿.4 8-80 -0 *4 -0 *6 -0 *9 -1 *7 -2 *3 -¿*6 -2 *6 -1 *4 0 .6 -0 *4 -1 *1 -1 *5 -1 *7 -1 *5 -0 *3 1 *5 9 0 ,6 7 8 9 1 ,0 3 1 9 1 ,1 8 6 2 *1 9 1 ,1 4 4 $ 6 ,9 5 1 9 0 ,4 6 5 9-80 -0 *1 -0 *2 10-80 0 *3 0*2 0 *0 -7 *5 -0 *8 -0 *8 -0 *^ 0.6 11-80 0 *5 0 *5 0*3 -0 *1 -0 *3 -0 *3 0*0 1 *1 12-80 0 *6 0 *6 0 *5 0 *1 -0 *1 -0 *0 0 *3 1 *2 9 0 ,0 4 7 “ ' 9 6 ,1 4 2 3 *7 9 0 ,3 5 4 3 *5 3 *3 2 *2 3*8 3 *8 4 .4 2 *5 3 *7 3*7 3 .9 3 .4 2 *4 3*4 3 *3 3 .3 2 .H 3 .4 3 .5 4 .Ö "3 7 1 " 3 .5 2 .3 "9 7 7 7 1 7 “ 9 0 ,9 6 1 2 .2 9 1 ,1 2 5 1-81 0*9 0 *9 0 *8 0 *5 0*4 0 *4 0 *8 1*7 7 .7 _ 3*6 3*6 3.7 7-sl 1 *0 1 *0 0 *9 0 *6 0 *5 0 *6 0 *9 1*7 2 *7 3*4 3*4 3 .4 3 .1 3-81 1 *0 1 *0 0 *9 0 *6 0 *5 0*6 0 *9 1 *6 2*5 3*1 3 *0 2 .$ 2 .7 275 ¿ .6 1.5 4-81 0 *8 0 *7 0 *7 0 *4 0*3 0 *4 0 *6 1*2 1 *9 2 *4 "2 .5 “ 2.1 1 .7 1 .4 1.2 0 .0 -1.1 -2 *8 5-81 0*7 0 *7 0 *6 0*4 0*3 0 *3 0 *5 1*1 1 *7 2 *1 2 .0 1 .8 1 .4 1 .1 0 .9 - 0 .0 - 0 .8 -1 *5 -0 *2 10-79 11-79 12-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 *-8 0 5-80 6-80 7 -ttO 8-80 9-80 10-80 1 1-80 12-80 1-81 2-81 3-81 4-81 " IN IT IA L P - PRELIMINARY 7 $ , 847 ~ _ $ I7 * 5 T $r," 6$ 2~ 0 .7 $ 1 ,7 6 5 $T74$7P~ "9 1 ,4 7 4 ^ M O N TH __________________ _________ ________________________________________________________________________________ PREPARED *Y FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS JUNE 5 , 1981 --- 2 EM PLO YM EN T RATIO RATIO SCALE MILLIONS OF PERSONS SCALE M ILLIO N S OF PERSONS S EASONALLY ADJ USTED I 10 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 SOURCEt U . S . D E P A R T M E N T OF L A B O R P E R C E N T A G E S AR E A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N C E F O R P E R I 0 0 S INOICATEO. L A T E S T D A t A PLOT T E D « M A Y P R E L I M I N A R Y ST. L O U I S UN EM PLO YM EN T PERCENT SEASONALLY RATE ADJ USTED PERCENT 1 KO 10. C 9. ( 8. ( 6. ( 5. ( 4 ♦( 3 ♦( SOURCE« U.3 P E R C E N T OF C I V I L I A N L A 0 O R F O R C E LATEST DATA PLOTTED« MAY sr. l o u i s 3 CONSUMER PRICE T INDEX FOR ALL URBAN CONSUMERS» SEASONALLY ADJUSTED C O M P O U N D E D A NN U A L R Ä t E S Of C H AN C E e r m in a l - in it ia l 1967* m onth H Q N T H _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ io -7 4 1 1 -7 * 12-79 11-7$ 14. 1 12- 7 * W .6 1 5 .2 i- è ó B .7 " Ì6 .6 2-80 1 5 .T li 3 —8 0 1 6 .2 4—è6 IT .T 5 —8 0 15Y7 1-80 2-80 3 t 80 4-80 T -è o 6-80 è -è o 7-80 9-80 io o ______ ___________________ 10-80 11-80 12-60 1-81 2-81 à-81 4-81 226 »2 ¿3 5 7 *“ 15. ö 2 3 4 *1 5" n .2 16 . 5 1 6 .8 " 1 7 .5 1 7 .Ö 1 7 .5 l5 .6 1 5 .7 1 5 .ó l4 .2 11 .0 1 4 .8 1 4 .? 1 5 .9 1 3 .1 ll.O 10.9 . 07*1 2 4 0 *3 2 4 2 *4 2 4 4 *5 T2.A 6 —8 0 1 4 .4 1 4 .5 1 4.3 1 3.6 1 2.9 11.4 n .7 7 -8 0 1 T.S 1777 12.3 1 1.4 1Ö.4 8 .7 8 .0 6 .6 1 .0 ò —S ö 1 2.5 1 2 .3 12.0 11" ."2 1 0 .3 Ö .9 8 .4 7 .6 5 .2 2 4 6 *9 ¿ «7* 1 2 i* * 0 9 .6 9-80 1 2 .6 1 2 .4 ' T27T l i . 4 t ö .7 9 .4 9 .4 9 .0 7 .8 1 1.4 1 3 .3 10-80 Ì2 .6 12 1 2 .2 1 1 .6 ll.O 1 0 .1 1Ó.0 9 .8 4 .1 12.0 ü . 2 ü .l 1 1-80 12.7 1 2 .6 12.4 l l . 9 11.3 10.6 10.* 10.5 TÖTT" " H7S 1 3 .5 1 3 .6 12-80 12.7 l2 .6 1 2 .4 11.9 11.4 10.8 10.8 10.7 1 0.5 1 2.5 rs .2 1 3 .2 "0 .3 1-81 1 2 .5 1 2 .3 12.1 1 1 .7 11.2 10.6 10 .6 lO .5 1 0 .3 1 1 .9 1 2 .4 12.1 11.8 1 0 .7 9 .1 10.8 1 0 .7 1 0 .7 1 0 .5 1 1 .9 12. Ì 12.1 1 1 .9 l l .2 10 .6 12.1 2 5 1 .6 T Tll 2 54 *2 2 5 7 *0 Ì4 .0 2 5 9 *5 2 6 1 *4 2-81 1 2 .4 1 2 .3 12.1 1 1 .7 1 1 .3 3-81 12.1 12.0 1 1 .8 1 1 .4 11.0 1 0 .5 1 0 .4 1 0 .4 10.2 1 1 .4 11.6 1 1 .4 11.0 1 0 .3 9 .6 9 .8 7 .5 4-81 1 1 .7 11.6 1 1 .4 11.0 10.6 1 0 .1 10.0 9 .9 9 .6 1 0 .7 10.8 1 0 .4 10.0 9 .2 8 .4 8 .2 6 .3 5 .1 5-81 11.6 1 1 .4 11.2 10.8 1 0 .4 9 .9 9 .9 9 .8 9 .5 1 0 .4 1 0 .5 10 .2 9 .8 9 .1 8 .4 8 .3 7 .0 6 .7 8 .4 10-79 11-79 12-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 5-80 6-80 7-80 8-80 9-80 10-80 11-80 12-80 1-81 2-81 3-81 4-81 IN IT IA L PRQ ÜUC6R P R IC E 1N O EX, 263 *9 26 5 *5 26 6 *6 2 6 6 *4 M O N TH F IN IS H E O GOODS - SEA SO N A LLY PREPARED BY JUNE 2 3 , 1981 FED ERA L RESERVE BA N K OF ST* LW 1S A O JU S T E U ______________________COMPOUNDED ANNUAL KATES UF CHANGE_____________________ TfcftfilNAL 10-3* ll- - ia 1 2 - 7 9 ___ I r h Q ___ 2 r O Ù ___ i d i l l i ___4rttfl___ S c i ü i ___ b - Ü Q ___ 1 = £LL___ Ü - Q O ___ 9 - t tO 10-60 1 1 - f lf ì 1 2 - flO ____L = ü J ____ 1 = 0 1 ____ i = t ì J ____4 - h l A l r T S _____ 17. >9 1 2 -7 9 ___ L i^ fl___ a * s __ 1 - 8 0 ____ 1 6 . 3 ___1 3 * 6 ___2 J ^ Z _ . 2 - S f l_____ 1 6 * 5 ___ U u ü ____1 ? « 4 ___ L Z *J ___ 3-80 1 6 » Q ____1 2 + h ____L 7 a 5 ___ 1 Ì a 5 ___ l A * ß _ 4 -8 Q 1 4 * 9 ___ I 4 « j ____1 L » 4 ___ 1 3 * 4 ___ L U 2 ______V « 4 5—80 1 3 «5 ___ I Z .ft-SQ___ 13*1 mÜ ___ L2^$___ 11 12*3__ 12*9 >4 11,2 -S U iL - . 2 4 L »7 2*2.ti _ Ì L Ì ____ S.fr _SL^L_ -tf«4___ 2*2__ 1Q»3 7 —8 0 1 4 * 1 ____l ì t i ____1 ^ 2 ____l i d i ___ 1 2 * 2 8 —8 0 1 4 * 3 ____l ì t i ____1 4 * 4 ____l ì * 4 ___ L 2 * £ ____ 1 2 . S ____L ì t i ____1 6 * 0 1 9 * 0 ____1 S « S 9 —flG 1 3 . 2 ____1 2 * 8 ____1 3 . 1 1 3 . 5 _____ 9 . 3 1 2 .1 1 1 .4 1 1 » 8 ______________ L f t . 3 1 1 . 0 ____1 1 . 3 1 2 .7 2 2 > fr_____________ 249*0 _______________ 3 .4 1 0 - 8 0 _____ Ü L « J ____ 1 2 * 2 ____1 3 . Q____1 2 « ! ____ 1 L * 5 ____ 1 1 * 1 ____ 1 U 4 ____L Z * £ ___ L J . ? ____L ü * 2 _____ Z * 6 ____1 2 ,*Q 1 1 -8 0 _____ L 2 *8 ___ 1 2 «4 ___ L2*£t___ 1 L * 7 ___ L l * 2 ___ LQ*fl___ 1 1 *Ü ___ 1 2 * 0 ___ 1 2 *3 8 * f l ___ 1 Q*_4 1 2-flQ _____1 2 *2 ___ 11 m l___ 1 1 *9 ___ L U C ___ 10 >5___ Lü*J ____1ü * 2 ___ l Ä * f l ___ 111*3_____flL*Z____ Z * J _____8 * 3 _____ 1 2 *2 ___ 11 «fl___ 1 1 .9 ___ L L *J ___ 1Q^> IQ .3 IQ .4 1 1 .Q R m2___12*3- 1 1 .1 ü.2 -2_-61_____11*9___11*5___ LLm h___L ü * 3 ___1 0 **___ 10*0___1£*1___ I Q . 6 IQ.7 9.0 3-8 1 1 2 * J___ L l * ä ___ 1 1 .9 ___L l * 2 ___1Q.Ü___ 1 0.5 ___ I Q . 7___ 11.2 11.3 9 .9 9 t 1___1Ü*J----9*8___10*0__ 12*0__ LUuö__ lo . ? 4 -fi l 12*0__ 11*2— L1*JB___1_L*2— LÜ*2-- m *5 ___10*6__ 11.1 11-1 9-9 9 * 2 ___ 1 Ü * J -----9 * 8 ___ lfl.Q___1 K S ___L l * 2 ___ 1 l.il — S — 81____ L l * 6 ___1 1 * 3 ___1 1 . 3 ___1 0 * 7 __ Lil*3___LÜ*1___1.0*1___ L0* 5 ___10 . 5 9.4 fl.7____9 * 4 10-79 11-79 12-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 5-80 6-80 7-80 8-80 9-80 9*0 10-80 fl*0 9 . 9 ____ 7-fe 267.3 9*1___ L0*J____ i * 5 ___10*1 11-80 12-60 1 - b l 2-81 3-dl 4 -8 1 INITIAL MONTH PR6PARCD BY FEOERAL RESERVE 4 bANK O F S T • LOUIS rtATIu SCALE 1967-100 PRICES U T I O SCALE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1967-100 CPt-U FOR ALL URBAN CONSUMMS PERCEMTACES ARC ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATEO LATEST DATA PLOTTEO. MAY PREPARED BY PEDEHAl RESERVE BANK OF S I . LOUIS RATIO SCALE PRODUCER PR IC ES RATIO SCALE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATEC LATEST DATA PLOTTEO. HAY P R E PA R E D BY F E D E R A L 5 R E S E R V E BANK OF LOU I PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, FINISHED CONSUMER FOODS - CO M PO U N D ED T E R M IN A L MONTH_____________________________________________________________ 10-79 11-79 12-79 2-80 3-80 1-80 IN IT IA L M ONTH ______________________ 4-80 5-80 6-80 ANNUAL RATES OF SEASONALLY ADJUSTED CHANGE 1967 7-80 8-80 9-80 10-80 1 1-80 * 100 ________ ______ 2-81 3-81 1-81 12-80 4-81 2 3 2 .3 1 1-79 2 3 .2 12-79 1 4 .2 5 .8 2 3 3 .4 6 .6 - 0 .8 2 3 2 .0 3 .2 - 2 .7 - 6 .7 - 6 .5 3-80 4 .9 0 .8 - 0 .9 2 .4 1 2 .1 4-80 1 .3 - 2 .6 - 4 .6 -3 . 7 -2 . 3 - 7 .0 CD o ru 1 1-80 2 3 0 .7 2 3 2 .9 - 1 4 .9 2 2 9 .8 2 3 0 .8 5-80 1 .9 - 1 .3 - 2 .7 - 1 .5 0 .2 - 5 .3 6-Ô 0 2 .5 - 0 .1 - 1 .1 0 .1 1 .8 - 1 .4 6 .2 7 .0 5 .4 5 .3 "T Ö 7 5 1 0 .2 2 Ö .2 T B ': y 8-Ó 0 9 .9 6 .5 8 .9 1 1 .3 1 4 .6 i5 .2 _ 2 4 .2 3r .2 "" 4 5 . 3 3 7 .ô 9-80 9 .6 8 .3 5 .6 ' ' 10. 1 1 3 .4 13 . 7 2 0 .4 2 4 .5 "3 1 .0 " 2 ó ♦6 10-60 9 .5 8 .3 8 .6 1 Ö .5 1 2 .6 1 2 .9 1 6 .4 2 1 .1 2 5 .0 1 6 .6 1 1-80 9 .1 8 .0 8 .2 9 .8 1 1 .8 IT 7T~ 1 6 .2 1 6 .1 2 0 .4 1 3 .3 6 .3 6 .2 12-80 8 .4 7 .4 7 .5 8 .9 1 0 .6 1 0 .4 1 4 .1 1 5 .4 1 6 .9 1 0 .6 4 .8 4 .3 7 .2 " ' T - W 5 .3 2 3 2 .1 24Ö . 6 '" 5 4 .ô ” 24770 2 4 8 .3 6”. 5 ' 7*5 “ 25D7Ö T3T5~~ - 250T5~ 2 ^ 0 .9 0 .5 ¿ . '2 1-81 7 .9 6 .9 7 .0 8 .3 9 V T 9 .5 1 2 .6 1 3 .5 1 4 .5 9 .0 4 .1 3 .5 1 .9 1 .0 1 .4 2-81 6 .8 5 .8 5 .8 6 .8 8 .0 7 .7 1 0 .2 1 0 .8 1 1 .3 5 .2 1 .8 0 .9 - 1 .0 - 2 .5 - 4 .0 - 9 .1 3-81 7 .0 6 .0 6 .0 7 .0 8 .1 7 .8 1 0 .2 1 0 .6 1 1 .1 6 .6 2 .9 ¿ .3 1 .1 0 .4 0 .3 - 0 .2 9 .5 " ~27'5 1 .9 0 .9 T T .T " 0 .2 - 0 .2 4 .7 0 .Ô 2 .2 1 .6 0 .7 0 .2 0 .1 - 0 .2 2 .9 - 0 .2 - 0 .5 8-80 9-80 10-80 11-80 12-80 1-81 2-81 3-81 4-81 4-81 6 .6 5 .6 5 .6 6 .5 7 .5 7 .2 9 .3 9 .6 9 .9 5 .9 ' 5-81 6 .2 5 .3 5 .3 6 .1 7 .0 6 .6 8 .5 8 .8 8 .9 5 .2 10-79 11-79 12-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 ♦- 8 0 5-80 6-80 7-80 I n it ia l PRO D U C ER P R IC E IN D E X * F I N I S H E D C O M PO U N D ED 3-80 4-00 10-79 11-79 1 5 .5 12-79 1 3 .6 11-79 12-79 1-80 2-00 5-80 6-00 < 3000S» -A N N U A L E X C L U O IN Ö FO O D S R A T E S OF CHANGE - SEA SO N A LLY A D JU S T E D 1967 M O N TH 7-8Ó 0-00 9-80 10-80 11-00 12-00 1-01 2-01 3-01 « 1 0Ò 4-01 2 2 5 .7 22 7 . 0 i- e o 2 0 .0 2 2 .3 3 3 .0 2 1 .4 2 3 .4 2 9 .7 2 5 .8 3-00 2 0 .1 2 1 .3 2 4 .6 20. 3 1 5 .1 4-00 1 9 .9 2 0 .0 2 3 .2 1 9 .8 lt .O 233#4 ” 2 4 Ò .7 2 4 4 .2 ¿4 5 .3 1 7 .7 1 0 .1 1 9 .4 1 6 .1 1 3 .0 1 2 .0 6-00 1 6 .9 l7 . 1 1 0 .0 1 5 .1 1 2 .6 1 1 .è 8 .4 7-00 1 6 .6 1 6 .7 1 7 .4 1 4 .9 1 2 .9 1 2 .3 1 0 .2 1 2 .6 1 3 .9 0-00 1575“ 1 5 .6 1 6 .4 1 4 .0 Ï2 .2 1 1 .6 9 .9 1 1 .4 1 1 .4 5 .è 2 4 7 .5 1 Ï.1 " 25Ö72 252 •0 9 .0 9-00 1 4 .5 1 4 .4 " IT .7 1 2 .5 1Ô•7 1 Ô .Ô 6 .4 8 .3 5 .6 2 .4 10-00 1 4 .4 " 1 4 .3 1 4 .6 1 2 .6 1 1 .1 1 0 .5 9 .2 1 0 .0 9 .6 6 .2 7 .9 1 3 .6 11-00 1 4 .1 1 4 .0 1 4 .2 T27 4 1 1 .Ô 1 Ô .5 9 .4 1 0 .Ó 9 .6 6 .0 8 .7 1 2 .Ó 7 .0 9 .7 7 .Ô 5 .3 1 3 .3 1 3 .4 n . 7 1 Ô .4 9 .9 9 :t " 6 .6 9 .3 9 .0 8 .Ô 25775" “ 25773“ T Ö .3 2 5 Ô .4 1^51 1 3 .6 1T7T 1 3 .6 1 2 .1 1 Ô .9 1 Ó .5 9 .6 10. 1 1 Ô .Ô 9 .3 9 .4 1 1 .2 1 0 .4 1 0 .5 1 5 ."9 2-61 1 3 .6 1 3 .5 1 3 .6 1 2 .2 1 1 .1 1 6 .6 1 0 .0 1 0 .5 1 0 .4 9 .9 10. 1 1 1 .7 1 1 .2 1 1 .5 1 4 .Ô 1 3 .6 3-01 1 3 .9 1 3 .0 1 3 .9 1 2 .6 "T T 7 T " 1 1 .4 1 Ò .7 1 1 .3 1 1 .2 1 0 .9 " T T . 2 1 2 .7 1 2 .6 n i s . 9 1 5 .9 1Ô . 1 . r 261 . 6 :2 6 * 7 4 ~ 2 6 0 .1 4-01 1 3 .6 1 3 .7 1 3 .8 12.6 T Ì7 7 - 1 Ì.5 1 0 .9 1 1 .4 1 1 .4 11.1 1 1 .4 1 2 .7 12. 6 1 3 .1 1 5 .1 1 4 .6 1 5 .4 1 2 .0 5-81 1 3 .4 1 3 .3 1 3 .4 12.2 1 1 .4 11.1 1 0 .5 1 1 .0 1 0 .9 10.6 10.8 1 1 .9 1 1 .7 1 1 .9 1 3 .3 1 2 .7 1 2 .3 9 .5 6 .4 10-79 1 1-79 12-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 5-80 6-80 7-80 8-80 9-80 10-80 11-80 12-80 1-81 2-81 3-01 4-01 23779— 1© 7 9 5-80 1 3 .5 2 5 1 .0 1 1 .0 2-80 12-00 251. r month IN IT IA L T E R M IN A L M ONTH ' 2 5 1 .2 ~ ? 4 9 .2 IN IT IA L 270 .6 2 7 2 .2 M ONTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS JUNE 5* 1951 6 I N D U S T R I A L RATIO P R O D U C T I O N SCALE RATIO I 967-100 SEASONALLY ADJ USTED SCALE I 967-100 160 155 150 145 140 135 1 30 1 25 120 1 I! I I< 105 10 0 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED '.ATEST DATA PLOTTED: MAY PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S IN D U S T R IA L C O M PO U N D ED A N N U A L LOUIS P R O D U C T IO N R A T E S DP CHANGE M O N TH ____________ 10-79 11-79 1 2 - 7 9 11-7 9 _______ 12-7 9 -0 *8 .. 1 — ftQ 2-ftQ 3-flQ 4-flO__ 5-fiQ <S-8Q__ 7-AC) __ B-flQ__ 9-BO 1Q-A0 11-flQ 12-flQ__ 1-A1___ 2 - 3 1 4 -8 1 l«i> ___1-BQ_____ Ûl*jÛ____ L a À____ L^>________________________________ _________________________________________________________________________________________ 2 —8 0 _____ -ü m Z ____ C U B ____ CL*±___ r û * 152*1 . 6 = 8 0 ____ — 5 * 7 ___- 6 * 2 ___-ft-0 - 1 1 - Q -15-fl - 2 b m2 _ 7 r B Q ____- 1 0 - 6 —1 1 - 5 —1 3 - 2 -15-5 - ia - 1 —2 1 - 3 -1 9 *7 -14-1 -9 -4 - i n - »? - f t ,,7 Û -2 - 5 - ■A -Ì*,9 4,,9 -2 -8 - 2 . ,7 1,,3 -1 t1 -1 - ft* 9 _ 141,6 9 -8 0 - A . ,1 —A ., 4 - 7 .3 —8*,3 lO -A T ) - 3 « »A - 3 .9 -4 - 5 « >n 1 1 -8 0 -7.>0 -1 .9 -2 -2.»ft \ - 1 . >0 >1 -n •A 1 -ft t - O . ,5 .3 2 -8 1 -0 .► ft -0 .4 - n •IS 3 -f t l -o .► ? -f)•0 -ft ,7 -n < ,7 -ft , 1 o *? n.1 OiiO l i - 79 1 2 - 79 1 -8 0 Û,>0 1 0 -7 9 • 1 .„? n •ft -«I 5 -A Î .5 ,? ,►0 -r t -7 -C\.,3 -a.»4 -n -2 n.»1 -n _ 7 —ii 2 -8 0 7«>6 1 6 -9 21 ,>3 11 «,9 1 9 .a ?3, »ft ?ft,>0 7, »ft 1 3«k9 2 0 -5 ?3i ?4. »? 2 2 -4 ?,,7 A, 13, ,9 I Q -1 ?ih »A 70,»ft 1 ft-/» 1 3 -A 3, »1 A,,1 1 ?,»7 1A . 7 17, ift u , ,7 1-4-7 Q -A 5—7 74»fì 10, kA 1 9 14, ,1 1?,kA «-7 5 -7 2- ft,t9 10, 12 .« 1 ?,k9 -•ft A *4 5 -7 1 1 -5 11 «,3 in .ifl 7 -5 4 *7 in , »5 <9.*? 7-/I Û-.1 ?t»ft ?t»9 ?»,7 ft«,3 .4 ?,»A ft«,1 A,,7 1 CL-7 5-80 6 -8 0 7 -8 0 3-60 4 -8 0 IN IT IA L 8-8 0 1 *A , ,9 144. i4 »5 1 ,•0 n 1 51 .,7 -1 151,>5 2 2 *0 5 5,7 ft 1 -A ,? 2* 9 ?t ? ,5 9 -8 0 10-80 11-80 12-80 1-81 2-81 2- IV , 1521r3P n -ft 1 V 1kAP 4 -0 3-81 4-81 M O N TH P R E L IM IN A R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL JIIN P 1ft» m i 7 RESERVE BANK O F ST• P ER S O N A L RATIO SCALE TRILLIONS OF INCOM E MONTHLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES DOLLARS S E A S O N A LL Y A D JU S TE D RATIO TRILLIONS OF SCALE OOLLARS 2.5 2.4 2.: 2.C 2. 2. ( r .C O.S SO U R C E * U.S. D E P A R T M E N T OF C O M M E R C E P E R C E N T A G E S AR E A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N C E F O R P E R I O O S I N0ICATEO. L A T E S T O A T A P L O TTEOt M A Y P R E L I M I N A R Y P R E P A R E O B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K OF S i. L O U I S PERSONAL INCOME ÇQnPWNPgP ANNUM MTE& Of CHAN&6 BILLIONS OF MONTH ANNUAL 10-79 11-79 12-79 1 —B O 2-BO 3 —B O 4-BO 5-BO 4-BO 7 —B O b -b o 9 —B O 10-60 11-BO 12-BO 1-81 2-B1 3-B1 RATES 4-B1 2 .0 3 2 .7 1 1 *7 9 1 3 *5 12-79 1 2 *7 11 *9 2 .0 5 1 .B 1-BO 1 3 *8 1 3 *9 1 3 .9 2 .0 7 7 .2 2-BO 1 1 *4 11 *0 1 0 *4 5 .4 3-BO 1 1 .0 1 0 .4 9 .9 7 .1 8 .7 4-BO 9 *2 6 .4 7 .5 4 .9 4 .4 2 .0 8 4 .4 2 .1 0 1 .0 0 .4 2 .1 0 2 .1 2 .1 1 4 .1 5-BO B#9 B .2 7#4 5 *4 5«4 3#B 4-BO 8 *8 B # I 7 *5 5 .9 4 .0 5 .1 7 .4 7 .4 7-BO 1 0 *1 9 *4 9*3 B .3 8 .8 B .B 1 1 *7 1 4 .1 2 W 0 B - ?0 1 0 *1 9*7 9 .5 B .4 9 .1 9 .2 1 1 .4 1 2 .9 1 5 .7 10.3 1 0 .1 1 0 .0 1 0 .2 1 2 .2 1 3 .4 9-BO 1 0 *4 1 0 —B O 1 1 .1 1ÎU1 -1QA- 9 .4 1 0 .2 7 *1 io*& -iltl ■ ■ U«Q 2 * 1 2 7 .1 1 5 .4 ■ l?tf 2 * 1 4 1 .2 2 * 1 7 9 .4 1 0 .4 1 3 .0 2 .2 0 ft. 7 1 5 .5 -14*2 -tttL. IfrtL- 2 * 2 3 4 .3 11*1 IU Q .A M 11*1 1U 4 IM H tQ JL Z rfifi____11 »2 I I »0 11»0 10»5 11.0 1 1 .3 1 2 .7 1 3 .5 1 4 .4 1 3 .3 1 4 .0 13 >5 11.9 1 0 .4 2-B1 11.2 11.1 11.0 1 0 .7 n a 11 .3 1 2 .5 13*1 13*6 12.6 13.1 12 .7 11.7 1 1.2 3-B1 11-3 11.2 11.1 10 .6 11-2 1 1 .« 12.4 1 3 .0 13.4 12 .7 13 .0 12.4 11.8 4—81 11-0 1 Û .« 10.8 1 0.5 10-9 11.0 12.0 1 2.4 12.9 12 .0 1 2.2 11.6 11.0 5-B1 10.8 1 0.7 10.4 1 0 .3 10.4 1 0 .B 1 1.4 1 2.0 12.4 11.5 11.7 11.2 10.4 10-79 11-79 12-79 1-6 0 2-BO ____l i t ? Z * > !• * - . 11 ^ _______ 2 *2 7 4 .4 11.5 9 .5 11.4 11.7 10.B 1 2 .1 2 .3 1 6 .2 1Û.S 1 0 .« 9 .5 9 .5 4 .9 9 .9 9 .6 B .9 6 .7 7 .1 2 .3 4 0 .4 2 .3 5 3 .5 7 .2 2.347 .2 P 4 -6 1 IN IT IA L MONTH PRELIMINARY PREPAREO BY PEOERAL RESERVE BANK OP 17» 1961 8 ST* LOUIS RETAIL RATIO SALES SCALE B I L L I ONS OF RATIO DOLLARS SEASONALLY . I L L I ONS OF AOJ USTED SO U R C E : PERC EN T A G ES ARE '.A T E S T PLO TTED : DATA ANNUAL RATES A P R IL , OF CHANGE FOR MAY ADVANCE P E R IO D S DEPARTM EN T OF COMMERCE IN D IC A T E D . E S T IM A T E PREPA RED K fc T A iL ___ I N I T I A L BY FE D E R A L RESERV E BANK OF S L O U I! S A L tS A H N U f t L HATfcS Q F TfcKHlNAL__ U .S . SCALE DOLLARS CHAWA M U N T H___ M O N TH ___________ 1 0 - 7 9 ± 1~ J¥ U - 1 9 ____I - t f V ___ _______________________________ 5 - ttQ ___ Q - 0 0 0 Q -Q l V-QO 1 0 -OQ 11-00 12-80 1~01 ¿- P i 3~01 4 - tfl U -7V _ ïi X 2 - 1 V ______p.j> 7 V t> frl 7 P .P 9 9 _______ Ì j LZ_____ __________ 0 . 7 - 1 3 .9 -1P«C - i t z i i i _____ __________ r A t 7 ____- ^ > 1 - lS .i - 1 7 - 1 7 . 0 77 » 6 Ü 3 -1 ____ - L > g ___ ________ r ^ t6 - U i -11.V ___ - S I 1 t S_ ,Ì> rV 5 . *♦ _SiL. _______ 6 . 7 11-eo 7.0 iz-Pt 7 .0 0 ,5 7 7 « fr* 3 _ L t i ______________ L U * ___ ¿ 3 * 6 - 7 9 »4 9 1 -7t y___ ________ ¿ U 9 ___IP»,* 7 9 .B 2 9 _ ? * » ___ l > x L- - fr i3 4 .9 - 7 .0 7 i> tV7S> I t i ___ L U ___ 1 5 .1 ____ iL*a___ iz.fr 0 . 9 ______________ lo . ! > ul±___ 1 Y .J ___ 17.^1___ 15 «fr___ 1 7 . Ü___ l±*l___ 2Û*Éi___ ¿ 1 * 2 ___ 3 3 .2 ______________________ Lfi -¿^¿1--------------------- K * 1-----1 U _____ _______ U l^ )___ 1 3 .V ___ _________ I V . 5> -3^1------- 1 ^ 1 ----- U L ^ ----- ___________________I W -feiV____ Lt-9 11-/V 12-7v 1 7 .6 ___ 1 6 .3 Id .3 1 9 .4 ___ 2 Û .6 2 1 .Q ___ l ^ . V ___ LOi*l___ l t i t f r ___ 1 7..1___ 1 ^ . 7 ___ _________ 1 0 . 1 ___ L iU 5 ___ ltf .fe J±x£__L i t i __L i ± 1__ ______L£U£__LU 3 __L U I__ Liu5___ 0.9 —LtV -7 «> _ S 9 1-dC 7.Q ¿-cHj j- ö O 4-tiG b-OC 6-00 7-öü 0-00 9-80 2fr.tf___2 0 . 0 __ 21.!»___lfr.L___1 1 * 6 a ,3___ l .3 h v -7 ,1 - ¿ 2 ,7 2-01 3 - tfi ^ üü _Zj 7 9 « i ___ ________ l A t i ___ l u ^____ v^ J___io «< :___ iQ tQ I N IT I A L P- 0 2 «764 i ____1 7 . 1 ____ H i . 7 .7 - 1 ^ 1 --------- ^ iC -79 1 ^ 0 ____1 1 . a____1 J . 7 ____l H .fa ____ 1 W 1 ____l i t . . 7____i f l . 7 ______________ 1 2 * 3 ____l S 10—00 11-tìO 12-00 l- t tl % - tU MONTH H< t L IH I N A k Y P K tP A K tü BY FeO tK A L K tS tK V t JUNh 1 1 . 1901 9 &AMK OF S T . LOUIS H O U R L Y C O M P E N S A T IO N « P R I V A T E B U S IN E S S S E C T O R COM POUNDED A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E T E R M I N A L _____________ _____________ _______________________ ____________ I N I T I A L QUARTER _________________ 1977 « 100 QUARTER 2-76 3-76 4-76 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 3-78 4— 78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 4-60 3-60 2-BO 93*7 3-76 9.0 4-76 8.5 7.9 1-77 7.9 7.4 6.9 2-77 7.9 7.5 7.2 3-77 7.9 7.7 4-77 7.8 7.5 1-78 8.0 2-78 1-77 95*5 97.1 7.6 96.9 7.6 8.0 8.3 100.9 7.4 7.6 7*6 6.9 7.9 7.9 8*1 8.3 8.3 9.7 8*1 7.9 7.9 8.2 8.3 8.3 9.0 102.6 105.0 107.1 8.2 109.4 3-78 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.9 8 .6 8.9 4-78 8.3 8.2 8.2 8 .4 8.6 8.6 9.1 8.9 9.2 9.5 1-79 8.6 8.5 8 .6 8*8 9.0 9.1 9.6 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.6 2-79 8.8 8.7 8.8 9.1 9.2 9.4 9.8 9.8 10.2 10.6 11.2 10.9 3-79 8.8 8.7 8.8 9.0 9.2 9.3 9.6 9.6 9.9 10.1 10.4 9.8 8.7 4-79 8.8 8.7 8.8 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.5 9.5 9.7 9.8 9.9 9.4 8.7 111*9 115.0 116.0 120.5 123.0 8*6 1-80 8.8 8.8 8.9 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.6 9.5 9.7 9.9 10.0 9.6 9.1 9.3 10.1 2-80 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.3 9.5 9.6 9.8 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.1 9.9 10.3 11*2 12.3 3-80 9.1 9.1 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.1 9.9 10*2 10.6 11*1 126.0 129.7 9.9 132.6 4-80 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.7 9.7 9.9 10.0 10.0 9.8 9.7 9.8 10.2 10.2 9.1 6.4 1-81 9.2 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.6 9.7 9.9 9.9 10.0 10*1 10.2 10.1 9.9 10.1 10.5 10.6 10.0 10.0 2-76 3^75 4^76 i-77 2-77 5-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3^79 4-79 1-80 2-60 3-80 135.5 11*7 139.3 IN IT IA L QUARTER OUTPUT PER H O U R OF A L L P E R S O N S , P R I V A T E B U S I N E S S C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E TERMINAL QUARTER INITIAL 2-76 3-76 4-76 3-76 1.2 4-76 0.8 0.4 1-77 2.5 3.1 5.8 2-77 1.7 1.9 2.7 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 SECTOR QUARTER 3-78 1977 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 * 100 4-60 96.0 98.1 99.5 -0.4 99.4 3-77 2.4 2.8 3.5 2.4 5.3 4-77 1.7 1.8 2.1 0.9 1.6 100.7 -2.0 100.2 1-78 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.1 0.3 -2.2 -2.4 2-78 1.1 l.l 1.2 0.3 0.5 -l.l -0.6 1.2 3-78 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.5 —0. 7 -0.3 0.8 4-78 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.3 -0.6 -0.3 0.4 0.0 -0.4 1-79 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.2 -0.7 -0.4 0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 99.6 99.9 0.4 100.0 99.9 99.7 2-79 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.1 —0 . 6 -0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 —0.6 —0 .4 3 — T9 0.5 0.4 0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.3 —0.6 — 0.8 -0.9 -1.0 -1.6 4-79 0.4 0.3 0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.8 -0.6 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -1.2 99.6 99.2 -0.8 99.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 -0.1 -0.0 — 0.6 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 0.2 1.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 —0 . 6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 3-80 0.4 0.3 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.3 -0.2 1*6 4 — 80 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 — 0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 —0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.2 —0.1 -0.5 0.2 -1.2 1-81 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 —0 . 0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 1.5 1.4 4.1 2-76 3— 7 6 4— 76 1-77 2-77 ~ 3-77 4-77 1-75 2-78" 3-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-60 3-60 4-60 O • O 1-60 2-80 4-78 99.3 -2.0 PREPARED B Y FED ER A L JU N E 1 , 1981 10 96.8 99.2 ftE S E R V f 96.9 BA>* O F 99.9 S T . L O U IS PROD UC TI VI TY, COMPENSATION, AND LABOR COSTS RATIO SCALE RATIO SOURCEi PERCENTAGES ARE LATEST PLOTTED. OATA ANNUAL RATES OF C H A N C E FOR PER IO D S U.S. OEPARTMEMT SCALE OF L A 6 0 * INDICATED. 1S T Q U A R T E R PREPARED 6T FE D ERA L R ES ER VE 9 AN K OF i LOUIS UNIT LABOK COSTS* PRIVATE BUSINESS SECTOR COHPOUNOED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE INITIAL QUARTER QUARTER 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 3-76 7*4 4-76 7.6 7.7 1-77 5.4 *.4 1.2 2-77 6.0 5.5 4.4 7.6 3-77 5.3 4.8 3.9 5.2 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 95*6 97.4 97.7 99.5 2.8 100.2 4-77 5.9 5.7 5.1 6.5 5.9 9.1 1-70 6*8 6*7 6.5 7.9 8.0 10.6 12.2 2 — 70 6.9 6.8 6.7 7.8 7.8 9.6 9.8 7.4 102.4 105.4 107.3 3-70 7.0 7.0 6.9 7.8 7.9 9.2 9.2 7.7 8.1 4 — 78 7.3 7.3 7.3 8.2 8.3 9.4 9.5 8.6 9.1 10.2 1-79 7.8 7.8 7.8 8.7 8*8 9.9 10.0 9.5 10.2 11*3 12.3 2-79 8.1 8.1 8.2 9.0 9.1 10.1 10.2 9.8 10.4 11.2 11*7 11*2 3-79 0.2 8.3 8.3 9.1 9.2 10.1 10.2 9.9 10.4 11.0 11.2 10.7 4-79 8.3 8.4 8.4 9.1 9.3 10.0 10.1 9.8 10.2 10.7 10.8 10.3 9.9 9.5 1-80 8.4 8.5 8.5 9.1 9.3 9.9 10.0 9.8 10*1 10.5 10.5 10.1 9.7 9.4 9.3 2-80 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.5 9.7 10.3 10.5 10.3 10.6 11.0 11.1 10.9 10.0 11.0 11.8 1**2 3-80 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.4 9.6 10.1 10.2 10.0 10.3 10.6 10.7 10.4 10.3 10.3 10*5 11*2 8*2 4-80 8.8 8.0 8.9 9.4 9.6 10.1 10.2 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.5 10.3 10*2 10*2 10*3 10*6 «•9 9.6 1-81 8.7 8.7 8.8 9.3 9*4 9.9 10.0 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.2 9.9 9.7 9.7 9.7 9*8 8*3 8.4 7.2 2— 7 6 3— 76 4— 76 1-77 2-77 5-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 3 —7 8 4-70 1-79 2-79 5-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3 —8 Û 4-8Ô 109.4 112*1 115.4 118*5 10.2 121.4 124.2 127.0 “ R T C F A fte t) Ô Y f É Ò É R A L JU N E I t 1 9 8 1 11 131.3 133*9 * É ÌÉ * V É 137.0 B A N K Ó~F S Ï . 139*4 L o u is G R O SS N A T IO N A L P R O D U C T I N C U R R E N T C O L L A R S C O N P Q U N O E O A N N U A L R A T E S O f C H A N G E _________ TERMINAL INITIAL QUARTER 2-76 3-76 7*4 4-76 8 8 99 4-76 3-76 1-77 2-77 3— 7 7 4-77 1-78 2-78 A lU IO t tt O f D O LLA RS ANNUAL HATES QUARTER 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 1,729.0 1D0É4 1,772.5 * 1-77 11.2 13.1 15.9 2-77 11.5 12.9 14.2 12.5 3-77 11.7 12.8 13.6 12.5 12.5 4-77 11.1 11.8 12.2 11.0 10.3 8.1 1-78 10.8 11.4 11.6 10.5 9.9 8.6 2-78 12.0 12.6 13.0 12.4 12.4 12.4 14.7 20.5 3-78 12.0 12.6 12.9 12.4 12.3 12.3 13.8 16.2 11.9 4-78 12.3 12.9 13.2 12.8 12.9 13.0 14.2 16.0 13.8 15.7 1-79 12.4 12.9 13.2 12.8 12.9 12.9 13.9 15.2 13.4 14.2 12.7 2-79 11.8 12.2 12.4 12.0 12.0 11.9 12.6 13.3 11.5 11.4 9.2 5.9 3-79 11.8 12.2 12.4 12.0 12.0 11.9 12.5 13.1 11.6 11.6 10.2 9.0 12.2 4-79 11.6 12.0 12.1 11.8 11.7 11.6 12.0 12.5 11.2 11.0 9.9 9.0 10.5 8.8 1-80 11.7 12.0 12.1 11.8 11.8 11.7 12.1 12.5 11.4 11.3 10.4 9.9 11.2 10.7 12.6 2-80 10.9 11.1 11.1 10.8 10.6 10.5 10.7 10.9 9.7 9.4 8.4 7.6 8.0 6.6 5.6 3-80 10.9 11.1 11.2 10.8 10.7 10.6 10.8 11.0 10.0 9.7 8.9 8.3 8.8 7.9 7.6 5.2 11.8 4-80 11.1 11.4 11.4 11.1 11.0 10.9 11.1 11.3 10.5 10.3 9.6 9.2 9.8 9.3 9.4 8.3 13.3 14.9 1-81 11.5 11.8 11.9 11.6 11.5 11.5 11.7 12.0 11.2 11.1 10.7 10.4 11.1 10.9 11.3 10.9 15.3 17.0 19.2 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4- r r 1-78 2-78 3-79 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 1,839.1 1,893.9 1,950.4 1,968.6 9.1 2,032.4 2,129.6 2,190.5 2,271.9 2,340.6 2,374.6 2,444.1 2,496.3 2,571.7 -1.1 2,564.8 2,637.3 2,730.6 2,853.0 iN iTiA L óOARTÉft G R O S S N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T IN 1 9 7 2 D O L L A R S C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E TERMINAL QUARTER 6 I I L 10*5 » DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES INITIAL QUARTER 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 3-76 2.3 4-76 3.0 3.8 1-77 5.2 6.6 9.6 5.3 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 1,303.3 1,315.4 1,345.9 2-77 5.2 6.2 7.4 3-77 5.5 6.3 7.2 6.0 6.7 4-77 4.9 5.4 5.8 4.5 4.2 1.7 1-78 4.6 5.0 5.3 4.2 3.8 2.4 3.1 2-78 5.2 5.6 5.9 5.1 5.1 4.5 6.0 1,363.4 1,385.6 1,391.5 1,402.3 9.0 1,432.8 3-78 5.0 5.4 5.6 4.9 4.9 4.4 5.3 6.4 3.9 4-78 5.1 5.4 5.6 5.0 4.9 4.6 5.3 6.1 4.7 5.4 1-79 4.9 5.2 5.4 4.9 4.8 4.5 5.1 5.5 4.4 4.6 3.9 2-79 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.1 4.0 3.6 3.9 4.0 2.8 2.5 1.0 -1.7 3-79 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.1 4.0 3.6 3.9 4.0 3.1 2.9 2.0 1.1 4-79 4.1 4.2 4.3 3.8 3.6 3.3 3.5 3.6 2.7 2.4 1.7 1.0 2.3 0.6 1-80 4.0 4.1 4.2 3.7 3.6 3.3 3.5 3.5 2.7 2.5 2.0 1.5 2.6 1.8 3.1 2-80 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.6 2.4 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.1 0.7 -0.1 -0.9 -0.7 -2.2 -3.6 -9.9 3-80 3.0 3.1 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.2 0.9 0.2 -0.4 -0.1 -1.1 -1.7 -4.0 4-80 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.6 -0.1 -0.3 -1.4 3.1 3.8 1-81 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.0 2.9 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.7 1.3 1.4 1.0 4.9 6.1 8.6 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3- 1 1 4-77 i -n 2-78 3-76 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 1,446.7 1,465.6 1,479.9 1,473.4 4.1 1,488.2 1,490.6 1,501.9 1,463.3 1,471.9 2.4 1,485.6 1,516.4 iN lT lA L'SU A ftT E R PREPARED JU N E 1 8 , 12 BY FE D E R A L R ES ER V E 1981 BANK OF ST. L O U IS G R O S S RATIO SCALE 1973 N A T I O N A L QUARTERLY 1974 1975 1976 TOTALS AT 1977 P R O D U C T ANNUAL RATES 1978 SOURCE: 1979 U. S. RATIO 1980 SCALE 1981 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. L A T ES T DATA PL OTT ED: 1ST QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 13 GENERAL R A T I O PRICE INDEX* S C A L E RAT I 0 I 9 7 2 - 1 0 0 S C A L E I 97 2 “ !0 0 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 *AS USED IN NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS SOURCE: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHAN6E FOR PERIODS INDICATED. '.ATEST DATA PLOTTED t 1ST QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF < LOUI! I M P L I C I T PRICE DEFLATOR FOR GROSS NATI ONAL PRODUCT _________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE 1972 I N I T I A L QUARTER 100 QUARTER 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-60 4-80 4.9 5 .7 6 .5 134.75 1-77 5 .7 6 .1 5 .7 2-77 6 .0 6 .3 6 .3 6 .8 3-77 5 .9 6 .1 6 .0 6 .1 5 .4 4-77 5 .9 6 .1 6. 1 6 .2 5 .8 6 .3 1-78 5 .9 6 .1 6 .0 6 .1 5 .8 6 .0 5 .8 2-78 6 .5 6 .7 6 .8 7 .0 7 .0 7 .5 8 .2 1 0 .6 3-78 6 .6 6 .8 6 .9 7 .1 7 .1 7 .6 8 .0 9 .2 4-78 6 .9 7 .2 7 .2 7 .5 7 .6 8 .0 8 .5 9 .4 8 .7 9 .8 1-79 7. 1 7 .3 7 .4 7 .6 7 .7 8 .1 8 .4 9 .1 8 .6 9 .1 8 .4 2-79 7. 1 7 .3 7 .4 7 .6 7 .7 8 .0 8 .3 8 .9 8 .4 8 .7 8 .1 7 .8 3-79 7 .2 7 .4 7 .5 7 .6 7 .7 8 .0 8 .3 8 .7 8 .3 8 .5 8 .0 7 .8 7 .8 4-79 7 .3 7 .4 7 .5 7 .7 7 .8 8 .0 8 .3 8 .6 8 .3 8 .4 8 .1 7 .9 8 .0 8 .1 1-80 7 .4 7 .6 7 .7 7 .8 7 .9 8 .2 8 .4 8 .7 8 .4 8 .5 8 .3 8 .3 8 .4 8 .7 9 .3 2-80 7 .5 7 .7 7 .8 8 .0 8 .1 8 .3 8 .5 8 .8 8 .6 8 ♦7 8 .5 8 .6 8 .8 9 .1 9 .5 9 .8 1 3 6 .6 4 1 3 8 .9 1 1 4 0 .7 5 1 4 2 .9 1 1 4 4 .9 3 1 4 8 .6 3 7 .7 1 5 1 .4 2 1 5 4 .9 9 1 5 8 .1 6 1 6 1 .1 7 1 6 4 .2 3 1 6 7 .4 7 1 7 1 .2 3 1 7 5 .2 8 3-80 7 .6 7 .8 7 .9 8 .1 8 .1 8 .4 8 .6 8 .9 8 .7 8 .8 8 .6 8 .7 8 .8 9 .1 9 .4 9 .5 9 .2 4-80 7 .8 8 .0 8 .1 8 .2 8 .3 8 .6 8 .8 9 .0 8 .9 9 .0 8 .9 9 .0 9 .2 9 .4 9 .8 9 .9 1 0 .0 1 0 .7 1-81 7 .9 8 .1 8 .2 8 .3 8 .4 8 .6 8 .8 9 .1 8 .9 9 .1 9 .0 9 .1 9 .2 9 .5 9 .8 9 .9 9 .9 1 0 .3 9 .8 2-76 3-76 4 —7 6 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-7 Y 1-78 '1 = Ï8 '" 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 IN IT IA L 1 7 9 .1 8 1 8 3 .8 1 1 8 8 .1 4 Q UARTER PREPA REO JU N E 1 8 , 14 BY FED ERA L 1981 RESERVE BANK OF ST. L O U IS PERSONAL C O N S U M P T I O N E X P E N D I T U R E S IN C U R R E N T C O M P O U N D E D ANNU A L R A T E S OF C HANGE DOLLARS ------------------------------------------ ftlLLlONSTOF T E R M I N A L ________________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L Q U A R T E R _______________________________________________________________________ D O L L A R S A MféUAL ( U T Ê S QUAftTÉft 2-76 3-76 3-76 1 0 .5 4-76 1 1 .7 1 2 .9 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 1 ,0 9 4 .2 1,127.9 1,163.9 1-77 1 2 .3 1 3 .1 1 3 .4 2-77 1 1 .2 1 1 .4 1 0 .6 7 .9 3-77 1 1 .1 1 1 .3 1 0 .7 9 .4 1, 186.2 1,217.4 1 0 .9 1,254.5 4-77 1 1 .4 1 1 .6 1 1 .2 1 0 .5 1 1 .8 1 2 .8 1-78 1 0 .9 1 0 .9 1 0 .5 9 .8 1 0 .5 1 0 .3 7 .8 2-78 1 1 .6 1 1 .8 1 1 .6 11 . 3 1 2 .1 1 2 .5 1 2 .4 3-78 1 1 .7 1 1 .9 1 1 .7 1 1 .5 1 2 .2 1 2 .5 1 2 .4 1 4 .8 1 2 .5 4-78 1 2 .0 1 2 .2 1 2 .1 1 1 .9 1 2 .6 1 2 .9 1 2 .9 1 4 .7 1 3 .4 1 4 .3 1-79 1 2 .3 1 2 .6 1 2 .5 1 3 .8 1 2 .6 1 2 .7 1,278.3 1,330.1 1 7 .2 1,369.9 1,416.6 1,454.1 1 1 .9 1 2 .0 1 2 .0 1 1 .8 2-79 1 1 .5 1 1 .6 1 1 .4 1 1 .2 1 1 .6 1 1 .7 1 1 .5 1 2 .3 1 1 .1 1 0 .7 8 .9 6 .7 3-79 1 1 .7 1 1 .8 1 1 .7 1 1 .5 1 1 .9 1 2 .1 1 2 .0 1 2 .7 1 1 .8 1 1 .6 1 0 .7 1 0 .6 1 4 .6 4-79 1 1 .9 1 2 .0 1 1 .9 1 1 .8 1 2 .2 1 2 .4 1 2 .3 1 3 .0 1 2 .3 1 2 .2 1 1 .7 1 1 .9 1 4 .6 1 4 .7 1 2 .3 1 2 .4 1 2 .4 1 3 .0 1 2 .4 1 2 .3 1 1 .9 1 2 .2 1 4 .0 1 3 .8 1 2 .9 1 1 .1 1 1 .1 1 1 .0 1 1 .3 1 0 .6 1 0 .3 9 .7 9 .4 1 0 .1 8 .6 5.7 1 0 .3 1 0 .2 1 0 .9 1 0 .0 8.5 6.4 1 4 .3 11.5 1 0 .7 9.9 15.9 17.4 15.8 1-80 1 2 .0 1 2 .1 1 2 .0 1 1 .9 2-80 1 1 .1 1 1 .2 1 1 .0 1 0 .9 1 1 .0 1,478.0 1,529.1 1,582.3 1,631.0 1, 626 . 8 - 1 .0 3-80 1 1 .3 1 1 .4 1 1 .2 1 1 .1 1 1 .3 1 1 .4 1 1 .3 1 1 .6 1 1 .0 1 0 .8 4-80 1 1 .6 1 1 .7 1 1 .6 1 1 .5 1 1 .8 1 1 .8 1 1 .8 1 2 .1 1 1 .6 1 1 .5 1 1 .2 1 1 .2 1 2 .0 1-81 1 1 .8 1 1 .8 1 1 .8 1 1 .7 1 1 .9 1 2 .0 1 1 .9 1 2 .3 1 1 .9 1 1 .8 1 1 .5 1 1 .6 1 2 .3 1 1 .9 1 1 .4 1 1 .0 15.3 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3 - n 4-7? 1-/8 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-8Ó 2-80 1,682.2 1,751.0 14.2 1,810.1 4-86 I N I T I A L «WÀftTÉft PERSONAL C O N S U M P T I O N E X P E N D I T U R E S IN 1 9 7 2 O O L L A R S COMP O U N D E D ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE ----------------------------------------------------TERMINAL ______ ------- Ô1LL10NSÙ* I N I T I A L Q U A R T E R _______________________________________________________________________ OOLLARS ANNUAL TUTES QÜAftTEft 2-76 3-76 4 .7 4-76 5 .4 3 —7 6 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4 -f0 027.1 839.4 6 .1 851.9 1-77 5 .6 6 .1 6 .1 2-77 4 .7 4 .7 4.0 1 .9 3-77 4 .7 4 .8 4 .3 3 .4 856.0 866.4 4 .9 881.3 4-77 5 .1 5 .2 5 .0 4 .6 6 .0 7 .1 1-78 4 .6 4 .5 4 .2 3 .8 4 .4 4 .1 1 .3 2-78 4 .9 5 .0 4 .8 4 .5 5 .2 5 .3 4 .4 7 .7 3-78 4 .9 5 .0 4 .8 4 .6 5 .1 5 .2 4 .5 6 .2 4 .8 4-78 5 .0 5 .0 4 .9 4 .7 5 .2 5 .2 4 .8 6 .0 5 .1 5 .5 1-79 4 .6 4 .6 4 .4 4 .2 4 .6 4 .5 4 .0 4 .7 3 .7 3 .2 0 .9 2-79 4 .1 4 .1 3 .9 3 .6 3 .8 3 .7 3 .1 3 .5 2 .5 1 .7 - O .i 3-79 4 .2 4 .1 3 .9 3 .7 3 .9 3 .8 3 .3 3 .7 2 .9 2 .4 1 .4 1 .7 4 .7 4-79 4 .1 4 .1 3 .9 3 .7 3 .9 3 .8 3 .4 3 .7 3 .0 2 .7 2 .0 2 .3 4 .1 1-80 3 .9 3 .8 3 .7 3 .5 3 .6 3 .5 3 .1 3 .3 2 .7 2 .3 1 .7 1 .9 3 .0 2 .2 0 .8 0 .5 - 0 .3 - 0 .5 - 0 .4 - 2 .0 -4 .7 -9 .8 884^.1 900.6 911.2 923.4 925.5 922.8 - 1 .2 933.4 941.6 3 .6 943.4 919.3 2-80 3 .0 2 .9 2 .6 2 .4 2 .4 2 .2 1 .8 1 .0 3-80 3 .1 3 .0 2 .8 2 .6 2 .6 2 .4 2 .1 1 .5 1 .1 0 .5 0.4 0 .7 - 0 .3 - 1 .5 - 2 .7 5 .1 4-80 3 .3 3 .2 3 .1 2 .9 2 .9 2 .8 2 .5 2 .0 1 .7 1 .3 1 .3 1 .7 1 .1 0 .6 0 .5 6 .1 7 .1 1-81 3 .4 3 .4 3 .2 3 .0 3 .1 3 .0 2 .8 2 .4 2 .1 1 .8 1 .9 2 .3 1 .9 1 .6 1 .8 6 .0 6 .4 5 .8 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 3-80 4-80 1 .7 4-77 2-80 930.8 946.8 960.2 INITIAL QUARTER PREPARED JU N E 1 8 , 15 BY FED ER A L 1981 RESERVE BANK O F S T. L O U IS G R O S S P R I V A T E D O M E S T IC I N V E S T M E N T I N C U R R E N T D O L L A R S C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E _________ _ BtLLlbttS O F T E R M I N A L ________________________ ________________________________________________I N I T I A L Q U A R T E R _______________________________________________________________________D O L L A R S QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 2-77 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 3-77 4-77 1-78 4-79 3-79 2-78 1-79 2-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 3-78 4-78 3-76 2.0 4-76 5.0 259.6 8.1 264.7 1-77 21.4 32.5 62.4 2-77 23.4 31.5 45.0 29.4 298.8 318.7 3-77 23.2 29.2 37.1 25.9 22.5 4-77 19.2 23.0 27.0 17.0 11.3 1.1 1-78 19.1 22.2 25.2 17.4 13.6 9.4 18.4 2-78 20.9 23.9 26.7 20.6 18.5 17.2 26.2 34.5 3-78 18.8 21.1 23.0 17.5 15.2 13.5 17.9 17.7 4-78 18.2 20.2 21.8 16.9 14.9 13.5 16.8 16.2 8.0 13.5 1-79 18.1 19.9 21.2 16.9 15.2 14.0 16.8 16.4 10.9 15.2 17.0 2-79 17.9 19.4 20.6 16.7 15.2 14.2 16.6 16.2 12.0 15.3 16.2 15.4 3-79 16.3 17.6 18.5 14.8 13.3 12.1 13.8 13.1 9.2 10.9 10.0 6.7 -1.4 4-79 14.1 15.1 15.7 12.2 10.6 9.4 10.4 9.3 5.6 6.2 4.4 0.6 — 6 .1 -10.6 335.3 336.2 350.7 377.7 2.9 360.4 392.6 408.3 423.2 421.7 410.0 1-80 13.5 14.4 14.9 11.6 10.1 9.0 9.9 8.9 5.6 6.1 4.7 1.8 -2.4 -2.9 5.6 2-80 10.9 11.5 11.8 8.6 7.0 5.7 6.2 4.9 1.7 1.6 - 0 .3 -3.4 -7.6 -9.6 -9.1 -21.7 3-80 9.3 9.8 9.9 6.9 5.3 4.0 4.3 2.9 -0.1 -0.4 -2.3 -5.2 -8.8 -10.6 -10.6 -17.7 -13.4 4-80 10.1 10.6 10.7 7.9 6.5 5.4 5.8 4.7 2.1 2.0 0.6 -1.5 -4.1 —4.6 -3.0 -5.7 3.5 23.7 1-81 11.7 12.3 12.5 10.0 8.8 7.9 8.4 7.6 5.5 5.7 4.9 3.5 1.9 2.4 5.3 5.2 16.1 34.4 45.9 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 5-77 4— 77 t-76 2-76 2-7$ 5-74 4-74 1-66 2-80 3-66 4-60 3-80 6 I L U 0 H S Of DOLLARS U t W M L RATtS 4-60 1-7V 5-76 " 4 - 7 S 415.6 390.9 377.1 397.7 437.1 T M T I a U (WAftTEft GROSS Pf COMPOUNDED TERMINAL QUARTER ANNUAL RATES T IN 1 9 7 2 D O L L A R S OF CHANGE INITIAL Q U ARTER 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 3-76 -2.3 4-76 0.6 3.7 1-77 12.8 21.3 41.8 2-77 15.1 21.6 31.6 22.1 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 1-79 4-78 3-78 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 164.6 166.3 203.3 213.7 3-77 14.8 19.5 25.3 17.7 13.6 4-77 10.8 13.6 16.2 8.7 2.6 -7.2 1-78 11.6 14.1 16.3 10.6 7.0 3.9 16.4 220.6 216.5 224.9 232.9 14.2 16.0 11.5 9.0 7.5 15.7 15.0 9.8 11.5 12.6 8.4 5.8 3.9 8.0 4.0 -6.0 4-78 9.3 10.6 11.5 7.8 5.6 4.0 7.1 4.1 -0.9 4.4 1-79 9.4 10.6 11.4 8.1 6.3 5.1 7.8 5.7 2.8 7.5 10.6 2-79 8.7 9.8 10.4 7.4 5.7 4.6 6.7 4.9 2.5 5.5 6.0 1.7 3-79 7.2 8.0 8.4 5.5 3.8 2.7 4.2 2.3 -0.1 1.4 0.5 -4.2 -9.8 4-79 5.2 5.8 5.9 3.2 1.4 0.2 1.1 -0.9 -3.3 -2.7 -4.4 -9.0 -13.9 -17.6 1-80 4.4 4.9 5.0 2.4 0.8 —0.4 0.4 -1.5 -3.6 -3.2 -4.7 -8.2 -11.2 -11.9 -5.7 2-80 1.9 2.2 2.1 -0.4 -2.1 -3.4 -3.0 -5.0 -7.2 -7.4 -9.2 -12.7 -16.0 -18.0 -18.1 -28.8 3-80 1.2 1.4 1.3 -1.1 -2.7 -4.0 -3.7 -5.5 -7.5 -7.7 -9.3 -12.3 -14.8 -16.0 -15.5 -20.0 00 l"1 12.0 3-78 229.3 231.8 237.7 236.7 232.6 221.5 216.3 200.5 -10.0 195.3 200.5 4-80 1.7 2.0 1.9 — 0 .4 -1.8 -2.9 -2.5 -4.1 -5.8 -5.8 -7.0 -9.3 -11.0 -11.2 -9.5 -10.7 0.0 11.1 1-81 2.8 3.1 3.0 1.0 -0.3 -1.2 -0.7 -2.0 -3.4 -3.2 -4.0 -5.6 -6.7 -6.1 -3.6 -3.1 7.4 17.4 24.1 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-60 3-80 4-60 INITIAL 211.6 QUARTER PREPAREO JU N E 1 8 , 16 BY FEDERAL 1981 RESERVE BANK O F S T. L O U IS G O VE R N M EN T P U R C H A S E S O f GOODS A NO S E R V IC E S IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S ___________________ C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S O F C H A N G E ______________________ B IL L IO N S O f T E R » H * AJ.________________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L Q U A R T E R _______________________________________________________________________ P Q L L M S . QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 2-76 1-78 2-60 4-60 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-76 3-78 2-77 3-77 4-77 4-76 3-60 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-60 3-76 5.4 4-76 7.0 362.9 8.6 370.4 1-77 7.7 8.9 9.2 376.6 2-77 9.2 10.5 11.4 13.8 391.0 3-77 8.8 9.7 10,0 10.5 7.2 4-77 9.5 10.4 10.8 11.4 10.2 13.2 1-78 8.9 9.5 9.7 9.8 8.5 9.1 397.9 410.4 5.3 415.7 4 * 5 tl 2-78 9.0 9.5 9.6 9.7 8.7 9.2 7.3 9.4 3-78 9.4 9.9 10.1 10.3 9,6 10.2 9.2 11.2 13.0 4-78 9.7 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.0 10.6 10.0 11.6 12.7 12.4 1-79 9.4 9.8 9.9 10.0 9.5 9.9 9,2 10.2 10.5 9.3 6,3 2-79 9.1 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.1 9.3 8.7 9.4 9.4 8.2 6*2 6.2 3-79 9.1 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.1 9.3 8,8 9.4 9,4 8.5 7.2 7.6 9.2 4?lt? 4 5 9 *2 465.1 475*4... 4-79 9.8 10.1 10.3 10.4 10.0 10.3 10,0 10.7 10.9 10.5 10.0 11,3 13.9 18,9 1-80 10.3 10.6 10.8 10.9 10.7 11.0 10.8 11.5 11.8 11.6 11.5 12.8 15.1 16.2 17.5 2-80 10.3 10.6 10.8 10.9 10.7 11.0 10.8 11.4 11.7 11.5 11.3 12.4 14,0 15.6 14.0 4 ?6t 4 . _ 516.8 10.6 5 M . 0 3-60 9.8 10,1 10.2 10.3 10.0 10,3 10.0 10,5 10.6 10,3 10.0 10.7 11,6 12,2 10.1 6.6 2.7 4-80 10.4 10.7 10.8 10.9 10.7 11.0 10.8 11.3 11.5 11.4 11.3 12.0 13.0 13.8 12.5 10.9 11.1 20.2 1-81 10.5 10.8 ll.o 11.1 10.9 11,2 11.0 11.5 11.7 11,6 11.5 12.2 13,1 13,7 1^,7 11.6 11*9 16*8 13,4 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-60 2-60 3-60 4-60 533,5 556.6 576.5 INITIAL QUARTFR G O V E R N M E N T P U R C H A S E S OF G O O O S A N D S E R V I C E S IN 1 9 7 2 D O L L A R S ______________ C Q g g a m P E P A N N U A L R A T E .?. Q f CHANfcf_______________________ TERjiLNH _________________ _ ___________________ BILLIONS Of ______________________________________ IN IT IA L QUARTER QUARTER ANNUAL 2-76 3-76 4-76 3-76 — 0 .6 4-76 -0.2 0.3 3,5 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 3-76 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-60 2 -80 _ 3-60 RATES 4-60 266.0 266.2 1-77 1,1 1,9 2-77 1.9 2.7 3.9 4.4 3-77 2.2 2.9 3.8 3.9 3.4 4-77 2.3 2,9 3*6 3.6 3.2 3.0 266.5 271.4 273.7 1-78 1.7 2.1 2.5 2.3 1.6 0.7 -1.6 1.8 2.2 2.5 2.3 1.8 1.3 0.4 2.5 3-78 2.2 2.6 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.1 4.0 5.5 V 1 CD 275.7 2-78 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.6 2.7 2.8 0.1 1-79 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.4 2.2 2.1 0.4 0.7 2-79 1,7 1,9 2,1 1,9 1.6 1.4 1.1 1,7 1.4 0.1 0,1 -0.4 274.6 276.3 260.0 260.1 280.6 280.3 3-79 1.7 1,9 2,0 1,9 1,6 1.3 l.l 1,6 1.4 0.4 0,5 0,4 1,1 4-79 2,0 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.7 2,2 2.2 1.5 1.9 2,2 3,6 6,1 1-80 2,3 2,5 2,7 2,6 2,5 2,4 2,3 2,8 2,8 2,4 2,8 3,4 4.7 6,5 _ 6.9 2-80 2,3 2,5 2.7 2,6 2,5 2,4 2,3 2.8 2,8 2.4 2,8 3,2 4,1 5.2 4.7 2.5 3-80 1.9 2,0 2,1 2,0 1,9 1.7 1.6 2.0 1.9 1.5 1.6 1,8 2,2 2.5 1.4 -1.3 -5.0 281.1 285.3 290.1 291.9 288.2 4-80 1.9 2.0 2,1 2,1 1,9 1.8 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.5 1.6 -0.1 -1.4 2.2 1-81 2.1 2,2 2^3 2,3 2.1 2.0 2.0 2,3 2.2 1.9 2.1 2,3 2,7 2.9 2,3 1.2 0.6 3.8 5.3 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-60 2-60 3-60 4-60 _ 436.3 IN IT IA L 289.8 293.6 Q U AR TER PREPAREO JU N E 1 8 . 17 BY fE D E R A L R E S E R V E 1981 BANK O f ST. L O U IS D I S P O S A B L E P E R S O N A L iN C O H E I N C U R R E N T D O L L A R S ________ C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S O f C H A N G E ___________ TERM INAL _____________________ I N I T I A L B IL L !O H S Of DOUAHS Q U A R T E R ________________________ Q U A R TER ANNUAL R A TE S 2~7fr ?-7 6.- 3~76 W 6 ---- 1=22---- 2 -1 7 3-77 i~77__ I-7 B 2 -7 8 3 -7 8 4 -7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 1 -8 0 2 -8 0 3 -8 0 4 -6 0 J L t £ _________ 4 -7 6 1 »2 03 .? _ U 2 2 9 . fr _____9.*Q - 1 - 77 8 .5 8 . 8 ____ 8 . 6 -1»25?«2 2- 7 2 - 9 .3 9 .8 -I t2 9 1 .Q 3-7 7 I Q . 2___ 1 1 . 9 KL*_1___ I S U l ___ I U 1 ___ 1 2 _ ^ ___ I _!• 3 3 2 . 1 _________ 4-77 1 0 . 3 ___ ______ 11.2 12 t l __ 11*1 li» : 1-78 1 0 t l ___ ICLtl___ IS. x\t 4 11*2 19» 1___ 2-78 10*5 11.7 11*6 U *o 11*3 10 #8 11*1 A . 367.8 10*9 l i 398.0 12*8 1 .4 4 0 .7 3-78 10.6 11.0 11.3 11*7 11*7 11*3 12*4 12*0 4-78 10,9 llt 3 11*6 12*0 12*0 11*8 11*9 12*9 12*9 13*9 1-79 11.2 11.5 U *8 12*2 12*2 12*1 12*2 13*0 13*1 13*7 13,5 2-79 11.0 11.2 11.5 11.8 11.8 11.5 11.6 12.1 11.9 11.9 11.0 3-79 11.1 11.4 11.6 11.9 11*9 11.8 11.8 12.3 12.2 12.3 11.7 10.8 4-79 11.2 11 .4 11.6 11.9 11.9 11.7 11.8 12.2 12.1 12.1 11.7 11.1 12.4 11.6 1—ft0 11.3 11.6 1 l.ft 12.0 12-0 11 .9 12.0 12.4 12.3 12.4 12.1 11.7 12.8 12.5 1 .4 8 2 .1 1.531*0 1.580*3 1 .6 1 2 .fi 8 .5 13.3 1*710.1 1 .7 6 5.1 13.5 2-80 10.9 11.1 11.2 11.4 11.4 11.2 11.2 11.4 11.3 11.2 10.7 10.2 10.6 9 .8 8 .8 4 .4 3-80 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.5 11.4 11.4 11.6 11.5 11.4 11.1 10.7 11.1 10.6 10.3 8 .7 13.3 4-80 11.1 11.3 11 .4 1 1 .6 11.6 11.5 11.5 11.7 11.6 11.6 11.3 11.0 11.4 11.1 10.9 10.1 13.1 1 2 .ft 1-81 11.1 11.3 11.4 11.6 11.6 11.5 11.5 11.7 11.6 11.5 11.3 11.0 11.4 11.1 11.0 10.4 12.4 12.0 11.1 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 1*784.1 1 .8 4 0 .6 1 .8 9 7 .0 1 .9 4 7 .8 IN IT IA L QUARTIR DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN 1972 DOLLARS _____ CQflgflimPEP AMtfUAL RATES OF CHANGE________ _ ________________ B IL L IO N S Of TERMINAL______________ _______ ____________________________________________ I N I TIA L QUARTER_________________________________________________________________POLLAR5, QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 2-76 3-76 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 3-76 2.1 4-76 2,3 909.5 915.1 2*5 918.7 1-77 2.1 2.0 1.6 2-77 3,0 3*3 3*6 5*7 3-77 3,8 4., 2 4,8 6*5 7*3 4-77 4.1 4*5 5*0 6*2 6 .4 5.5 1-78 3,9 4 ,2 4 ,5 5.2 5.1 4 .0 2 .5 2-78 3,8 4*1 4*4 4*9 4 .7 3 .9 3.1 3 .6 3-78 3.9 4*1 4*4 4*6 4.0 3 .5 4 .0 4,3 4-78 4*0 4*2 4*4 ^9 P 4 .7 4.2 3 .9 4 .3 4.7 1-79 3*9 4*1 4*3 4*6 4 .5 4 .0 3*7 4 .0 4.1 3*1 2-79 3.6 3*8 3*9 4*2 4 .0 3.5 3*2 3*3 3.2 1*8 0*5 931.6 948.1 960.9 966.8 975.5 985.9 . 1.006*9 3-79 3 .6 3*7 3*9 4*1 3.9 3.5 3*2 3*3 3.3 2*4 2*0 3*5 4-79 3.4 3.5 3*6 3*8 3 .6 3.2 2*9 3 .0 2.9 2*0 1*6 2*2 0*8 1-80 3.3 3 .4 3.4 3*6 3.4 3.0 2 .7 2.8 2.6 1*8 1*5 1.9 1 .0 1.3 2-80 2.7 2.8 2.8 2*9 2.7 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.7 0*7 0*2 0.1 -1 .0 -1 .9 -4 .9 2 .9 2 . ft 2 .4 2.1 2 .1 1.9 1.2 0 .8 0 .9 0 .3 0.1 -0.5 4 .1 3 .0 2 . ft 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.0 1.4 1.1 1.2 0 .8 o .a 0 .6 3 .5 2 .9 1 .5 1.2 1.2 1.2 3 .3 2 .9 3 .0 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 3-80 2.8 2 .9 4-80 ?.ft 2-9 1-81 2.8 2 .9 2 .9 3 .0 2.8 2 .5 2 .3 2 .2 2 .1 1.6 1 .4 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 4-78 1-79 2-76 iN in .99f *0 . 1#0Q?.7 2-79 lt 0 1 5 . 2 1*01 7.2 1 .0 2 1 .0 1 .0 1 8 .5 1 .0 2 5 .a 1. 0 3 3 . 3 QUARTER P R fP A R tO JU N E 1 8 . 18 BY FED ERAL RESERVE 19 *1 BANK O f ST. L O U IS C O R P O R A TE P R O F IT S A F T E R T A X E S * C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S O F C H Aht& E TERM INAL____________ _ ___ ________________________________I NI T I A L QUART E R_________________________________ ______________ QUARTER 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-76 4,8 4-76 2.2 -0.4 1-77 15.7 21.5 2-77 15.9 19.9 31.6 16.7 3-77 16.1 19.1 26.5 16.8 16.8 4-77 13.7 15.6 19.9 11.7 9.3 3-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 3-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 103.5 103.4 48.3 114.1 n a . 6 123.3 124.0 2.3 1-78 12.3 13.7 16.7 9.9 7.7 3.4 4.6 2-78 15,8 17.5 20.8 15.9 15.7 15.3 22.4 43.3 3-78 16.0 17.5 20.3 16.2 16.1 15.9 20.8 29.9 17.7 4-78 18.3 19.9 22.8 19.5 19.9 20.6 25.6 33.6 29.0 41.3 1-79 18.9 20.4 23.0 20.1 20.6 21.2 25.4 31.3 27.5 32.7 24.6 2-79 17.2 18.4 20.4 17.7 17.8 17.9 20.8 24.3 20.0 20.7 11.6 0.0 3-79 17.7 18.8 20.7 18.3 18.5 18.7 21.2 24.2 20.7 21.5 15.5 11.2 4-79 15.3 16.1 17.6 15.2 15.0 14.8 16.5 18.3 14.5 13.9 8.0 2.9 4.4 1-flO 16.8 17.7 19.2 17.0 17.1 17.1 18.9 20.8 17.9 17.9 13.7 11.1 15.1 11.0 39.fi 2-80 9.4 9.7 10.5 8.0 7.3 6.5 6.9 7.2 3.3 1.4 -4.0 -8.9 -11.0 -20.3 -24.1 125.4 137*2 142.9 155.0 164.6 23.7 -11.9 102.9 146.5 -58.8 3-80 11.0 11 .3 12.2 10.0 9.5 8.9 9.5 10.0 6.8 5.5 1.2 -2.2 -2.7 -8.4 -7.1 -24.3 39.1 4-ftO 11.1 11.5 12.3 10.2 9.8 9.2 9.8 10.3 7.5 6.4 2.7 -0.1 -0.1 -4.3 -2.3 -13.3 25.fi 13.7 1-81 ll^Q 11.4 12.1 10.2 9.7 9.2 9.8 10.2 7.6 6.7 3.4 1.0 1.2 -2.2 -0.1 -8.1 20.0 11.5 9.3 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-00 2-00 3-00 4-00 INITIAL » 4-78 6 1 L L IO H S O F D O LLA RS ANNUAL RATES 4-00 NA T I ONA L I N C O ME BASH- 159.1 164.3 QUARTER __________________________ PREPARED BY FfDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SOURCES OF DATA NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS DATA The December 1980 Survey of Current Business contains an a rticle describing the major aspects of the revision, simmary annual estimates for 1978 and 1979, quarterly estimates for recent quarters, and monthly estimates for October 1979 through November 1980. National Income and Product Tables, 1976-79, forthcoming 1n a special supplement to the Survey, contains estimates for 1976-79 for the fu ll set of annual and seasonally adjusted quarterly and monthly national Income and product (NIPA) tables. National Income and Product Accounts of the United States, 1929-76: S ta tis tic a l Tables contains a ll estimates covering earlier years. This publication 1s expected to be available for purchase from the Superintendent of Documents later in 1981. For further information, write to the National Income and Wealth Division (BE— 54) Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230. The Survey is available from most d is tric t offices of the Department of Commerce or from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. 16Ô.0 19 ST. LOUIS I N V E N T O R I E S COMPARED WI T H M O N T H L Y M A N U F A C T U R I N G AND T R A D E SALES* . 68 .64 .60 .56 .52 .48 .44 .40 .36 .32 * R A T I OS BASED ON SHADED AREAS REPRESENT LATEST DATA SEASONALLY PLOTTED: ADJUSTED PERIODS OF DATA. BUSINESS SOURCE: 'J. S . D E P A R T M E N T OF C O MME R C E RECESSIONS. APRIL PREPARED 2 0 BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
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