Full text of National Economic Trends : June 1973
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nnnonnL Economic P R EP A R E D MONTH E N D IN G : May 31, 1973 BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK treiids OF ST. LOUIS RELEASED: Ju n e 22, 1973 Economic activity continued to advance at a brisk pace through the month of May. Production, employment, and sales rose about as rapidly in the first five months of 1973 as in 1972. The rates of growth of consumer and wholesale prices accelerated in recent months. Industrial production rose at an 8.7 percent rate in the first five months of 1973, after rising 10.3 percent in 1972. For comparison, industrial production increased 4.2 percent annually from 1957 to 1972. Total civilian employment rose at a 3.6 percent rate in the past five months, after increasing 3.4 percent in 1972. Because of continued rapid growth of the labor force, however, the unemployment rate of all civilian workers has remained about 5 percent since the first of the year. The number of hours worked per week (including overtime) in manufacturing has also changed little since the first of the year. The workweek has averaged 40.9 hours (seasonally adjusted) since February, compared to 40.6 in 1972 and 39.9 in 1971. Personal income advanced at a 7.3 percent rate in the five months ending in May, compared to a 10.4 percent increase in 1972 and a 6.8 percent increase annually from 1957 to 1972. Retail sales rose at a 14 percent rate in the past five months, after rising 13 percent in 1972. The ratio of inventories to sales continued to fall in early 1973 and was 1.41 in March and April. The lowest level recorded for this ratio during the 1961-69 expansionary period was 1.42 in early 1966. Consumer prices have risen at a rapid 8.2 percent annual rate in the first five months of 1973. For comparison, consumer prices rose 3.4 percent in 1972 and 2.7 percent annually from 1957 to 1972. Wholesale prices of industrial commodities have risen at a 13 percent rate in the past five months, compared with a 3.6 percent advance in 1972 and a trend rate of 1.6 percent from 1957 to 1972. Wholesale prices of farm products and processed foods and feeds have risen at a 42 percent rate in the five months ending in May. This compares with a 14 percent increase in 1972 and a trend rate of 1.8 percent from 1957 to 1972. 2 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION C O M P C U N D E C A N N U A L R A T E S CF C H A N G E TFPMINAL MONTH 10-71 I N I T I A L 1M O N T H 11-71 1 1-71 7.0 1 2-71 7.5 3.1 1 -72 7.3 7. «î 12-71 1-72 2-72 3-72 4-72 5-72 6-72 7-72 1 9 6 7 = 103 9-72 10-72 11-72 12-72 1 -7 3 2-73 3-73 4-73 107.4 108.1 *.9 108.7 2-72 9.3 10 .0 11. 0 15. 3 3-72 10 . 2 11. 0 12.0 14.6 13.9 4-72 11.6 12.5 13. 6 16.0 16.3 18.7 110.0 111.2 112.8 5-72 1J.5 11.1 11. 7 12.9 12. 2 11. 3 4.3 6-72 9.4 9.3 10.0 10.7 9.6 8.2 3 .2 2.1 7-7? 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.8 8.7 7. 5 4.0 3.8 5 .4 9.4 9.7 9.9 10. 3 9.5 8.6 6.2 6.9 9.3 13.4 8-72 8-72 113.2 113.4 113.9 1 1 5.1 116.1 9-72 9.5 9.8 I J.O 10.4 S.7 9.0 7.2 7.9 9.9 12.2 10.9 1 0 - 72 10. 0 10 . 3 10.5 10 . 9 10.4 9.9 8. 5 9.4 11.2 13.3 13.2 11-72 10.1 10.3 10.5 10.9 10.4 10.0 8 .8 9.6 11. 1 12.6 12.3 13.1 10.7 1 2- 72 9.9 10.1 10 . 3 10 . 6 10.1 9.7 8 .6 9.3 IC. 5 11.5 ll.l ll.l 9.0 1 5.5 117.5 118.5 7.3 119.2 1-73 9.8 10.3 13.1 10.4 10.0 9.6 8 .6 9.1 10.2 11.0 10.5 10.4 8.8 7.8 8.4 2-73 9.9 10. 1 10.2 10.5 10.1 9. 8 8. 9 9.4 10.4 l l.l 10.7 10.6 9 .5 9.1 10.0 11.6 120.0 121.1 3-73 9.3 10.0 10.2 1 0.4 10.0 9 .7 8.9 9.4 1C.2 10.9 10.5 10.4 9.4 9.1 9.7 10.4 9 .3 4-73 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.2 9.9 9.6 8.9 9.3 10.0 10.6 10.2 10.1 9.2 8.9 9.3 9.7 8 .7 8.2 5-73 9.6 9.7 9.8 1 0. 0 9.6 9.3 8 .6 9. C 9.7 10. 1 9.7 9.6 8.8 8.4 8.7 8 .7 7 .8 7.1 6.0 10-71 11- 7 1 12-71 1-72 2-72 3-72 4-72 5-72 6-72 7-72 8-72 9-72 10-72 11-72 12-72 1-73 2-73 3-73 4-73 122.0 1 2 2 . 8P 123.4P I MI TT A L M O N T H P- P R E L I M I N A R Y P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S J U N E 18« 1 9 7 3 3 INDUSTRIAL RATIO PRODUCTION SCALE 1965 RATIO 1966 1967 1968 1969 PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR P E R I O D S L A T E S T DATA P L O T T E D : 1970 1971 1972 SCALE 1973 INDICATED. MAY P R E L I M I N A R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS 4 TOTAL C I VILIAN EMPLOYMENT C O M P O U N D E D ANNU A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E TERMINAL MONTH 10-71 INITIAL 11-71 12-71 1-7 2 2-72 3-72 4-72 5-72 6-72 7-72 1M O N T H 8-72 THOUSANOS OFPERSONS 9-72 10-72 11-72 12-72 1-73 1 1 - 71 3.8 1 2-71 2.3 0.8 1-72 4.3 4.5 8.4 2-72 3.3 3.1 4.2 0. 2 3-72 4. 5 4.7 6.0 4. 8 4-72 3.7 3.7 4.4 3.2 4.7 - 0.1 5-72 3.7 3.7 4.3 3.3 4.4 1. 8 3 .7 6-72 3.8 3.8 4.3 3.5 4.4 2. 7 4.1 4.4 7-72 3.4 3.4 3.8 3.0 3. 6 2.1 2. 9 2.4 0.4 8-72 3.5 3.5 i. 8 3. 2 3. 7 2.5 3.2 3.0 2.3 4.2 9-72 3. 4 3. 4 3.7 3.1 3. 6 2 .Ö 3.1 3.0 2.5 3.5 2 .9 10-72 3.3 3.3 3.5 3. 0 3.4 2.5 2.9 2.8 2.4 3.0 2.5 2.1 11-72 3.2 3 .2 3.4 2.9 3.2 2.4 2.8 2.6 2. 3 2.8 2.3 2.0 1.9 12-72 3.3 3.2 3.4 3.0 3.3 2.6 2.9 2.8 2.5 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.8 3 .8 1-73 2.8 2.7 2.9 2.5 2 .7 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.9 1.5 1. 1 0.8 0.2 -3.2 2-73 3. 2 3.1 3.3 2.9 3.1 2.6 2. 8 2. 7 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.5 8.6 2-73 3-73 4-73 79,987 80*040 80,579 80,594 9.7 81,216 81,209 81,458 81,752 81,782 82,061 82,256 82,397 82,525 82,780 82,555 83,127 3-73 3.6 3.6 3.8 3.5 3.8 3. 3 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.9 3.8 4.0 4.4 5.0 5.5 10. 1 11. 6 4-73 3.5 3. 4 3.6 3.3 3. 5 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.7 4.1 4.2 6.8 5.8 0.4 5-73 3 .4 3.3 3.5 3.2 3.4 3.0 3. 2 3.2 3.0 3 .3 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.7 3.6 5.4 4.4 1.0 10-71 1 1 -71 12-71 1-72 2-72 3-72 4-7*: 5-72 6- 72 7-72 8-72 9-/2 1 0 - 7 2 1 1 - 7 2 T 2 - 72 1-73 83,889 83,917 1 .5 84,024 2 - 7 3 -3 = 7 3 -" 4 - 7 T ..... ...... INI 11 AL W U N I H 'FREP-ß-RFCT BY F E D E R A L J U N E 1, 1973 RESERVE BANK ” ---- Si. LUUii> PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT C O M P C U N O E D A N N U A L R A T Ç S OF C H A N G E TERMINAL MONTH 10-71 THOUSANOS OF P E R S O N S I N I TIAL M O N T H 11- 7 1 12-71 1 -7 2 2-72 3-72 4-72 5-72 6-72 7-7 2 8-72 9 - 7 2 10-72 11-72 12-72 1-73 2-73 3-73 4-73 3.7 71,078 12-71 3.5 3. 2 71,264 1-72 3.9 4.0 4. 8 2-72 3.8 3.8 4.1 3.4 3-7 2 4. 0 4.1 4.4 4.2 4.9 4-72 3.9 3. 9 4. I 3.9 4.1 3.2 5-7 2 4. 1 4.1 4 .3 4.2 4.5 4.2 5.3 6-72 3.9 4.0 ¿».1 3.9 4.1 3. 3 4.1 11-71 71,545 71,747 72,033 72,224 72,534 2.9 72,705 72,694 7-72 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.2 3.2 2.8 2.6 1.3 - 0.2 8-72 3. 7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.3 3.3 2.7 2.6 5.4 9-72 3. 7 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.7 3.5 3. 5 3.1 3.1 4.8 4. 2 10- 7 2 3. 8 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.8 3.5 3.7 5.0 4.8 5.3 11-72 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.6 3. 8 4.8 4.6 4.7 4.2 12 - 7 2 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.6 4. 4 4.1 4.1 3.5 73,016 73,268 73,584 73,835 2.7 74,002 1-73 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.7 4.3 4. 1 4.1 3.7 3.4 4.1 2-73 4. 1 4. I 4.1 4.1 4. 1 4. 1 4.2 4.0 4. 2 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.9 5.9 7.7 3-73 4.0 4.0 4. I 4.0 4. 1 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.1 4. 6 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 5.0 5.5 3.2 4-73 3.9 3. 9 4.0 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.9 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.4 4. 5 2.9 2.6 5- 7 3 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 3. 9 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.8 4.2 4. 0 4.0 3.8 3. 8 4.0 4.0 2. 7 2.5 2.4 10- 7 1 11-71 12-71 1-72 2- 7 2 1=72 4-72 5-72 6-72 7-72 9-72 10-72 11-72 12-72 1-73 2-73 3-73 4-T3 P- P R E L I M I N A R Y INI M A L 8-72 74,252 74,715 74,914 75,074P 75,222P 1M O N T H PREPARED 6Y FEDERAITRESERVE JUNE 1* 1 9 7 3 BANK OF S T . LÖQXS 5 EMPLOYMENT RATIO SCALE MILLIONS OF 1965 RATIO PERSONS 1966 1967 SEASONALLY 1968 MILLIONS ADJUSTED 1969 1970 1971 SOURCE: DATA FOR PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT R E V I S E D FROM OCTOBER, PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR P E RI OD S LATEST DATA P LO TT E D : 1972 OF SCALE PERSONS 1973 U . S . D E P A R T M E N T OF LABOR 1971. INDICATED. MAY P R E L I M I N A R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS 6 UNEMPLOYMENT 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 RATES* 1970 1971 SOURCEs « P E R C E N T OF C I V I L I A N L A T E S T DATA P LO TT E D : LABOR FORCE U .S. 1972 1973 DEPARTMENT OF LABOR I N GROUP MAY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS I N V E N T O R I E S COMPARED W IT H MONTHLY S A L E S * MANUFACTURING * RAT I OS B A S E D ON S E A S O N A L L Y ADJUSTED SHADE D A R E A S R E P R E S E N T P E R I O D S OF AS D E F I N E D BY T H E N A T I O N A L B U R E A U LATEST DATA PLOTTED: APRIL AND TRADE DATA. SOURCE: U . S . DEPARTMENT OF C O MME R C E BUSINESS RECESSIONS OF E C O N O M I C R E S E A R C H . PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY F E D E R A L RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 8 R E T A I L SALES C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E TERMINAI MONTH M I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS I N I T I A L MO N T H 11-71 12-71___ i z J I __ IzJJL___3-72 11-71 23.1 12-71 -1.2 -20.ft 4-72 *-72 6-72 7-7 2 6-72 9 - 7 2 1 0 - 7 2 11-72 1 2 - 7 2 1-73 2-73 3 -73 4-73 35,574 -0. 9 -11 . 1 34,896 -0.3 34,886 35,345 7.6 19.0 30.1 44.7 4. 9 12.5 17.2 17.3 -5.0 9.0 1ft.1 20.7 21.9 11.9 31 . 6 6.1 11.3 13.3 13.1 4.1 9. 0 -9.fi 9.2 10-71 36,450 36,296 37,141 36,822 7.5 1 ?.3 14.6 14.1 9.1 13.5 15.6 15.4 10.3 14.5 9.2 20.2 22.1 11-71 12-71 1-72 2-72 3- 7 2 4-72 5-72 6-72 7-72 37,342 37,969 8-72 9-72 10-72 11-72 12-72 1-73 2-73 3-73 4-73 IN ITIAL M O N T H P- P R E L I M I N A R Y E- E S T I M A T E D P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E J U N E 12, 1973 BAN K OF ST. L O U I S P E R S O N A L INCO M E C O M P C U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S GF C H A N G E TERMINAL MCNTH 10-71 11-71 12-71 1-72 2- 7 2 3-72 4-72 5-72 6-72 7-72 6.5 12-71 11. 2 16.1 1-72 11.5 14. 1 11-72 1 2-72 1-73 2-73 4-73 890.4 12. 1 898.9 908.5 2-72 12.3 13.9 12.8 13.6 3-72 11. 0 12. 1 10.8 10. 2 6.9 4-7 2 10.5 11.3 10. 1 9.4 7.4 5-72 9.8 10.4 6-72 8.4 9.0 913.6 919.4 7.9 9.3 8. 6 7.0 7.0 6. 2 8.ft 7.4 ft.*» 4.8 4.1 2.3 9.3 3.3 7.7 6.6 6.5 6. 0 924.0 922.9 -1.4 5.9 1 1 3 . 8 932.9 940.0 9 . 5 N ^ 8-72 9.0 9.3 8.5 8. 0 7.1 7.1 6.9 7.1 11.6 9-7 2 9.0 9.3 8.5 8. 1 7.3 7.4 7.3 7. é 10.8 9.3 1C-72 10.3 10. 6 10. 1 9.9 9.4 S. 8 10. 1 10.9 14.2 14.4 16.9 1C.5 1 C .6 11.É 14.4 14.6 16.3 11-72 9-7 2 10 - 7 2 8-72 3-73 879.4 11-71 7-7? DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES INITIAL M O N T H 10.7 11. 0 10.4 10.6 1C.1 12-72 10.5 10. 8 10.4 10.2 9.9 10. 2 1-73 10. 0 10.3 9.9 9. 7 9.3 2-73 10. 1 10.3 9.9 9.8 9.5 946.8 9.0"' \ 964.8 25.4 20. 1 + 1 0 .6 % 976.2 15.1 S S L 8 .6 \ .... 982.9 13.4 13.3 14.3 16.1 11.8 10. 2 12.0 11.7 12.1 12.9 9.1 6. 2 3^9^ 10. 3 11.9 11.6 11.9 12.5 9.5 7.7 7.3 10.8 \ 11.2 11.4 11. 8 9 .3 7. 9 7.7 9.7 8.5 10.5 11. 2 9.6 9.8 9.7 9.9 986.0 994.5 1,001.3 3-73 10. 0 10.? 9.8 9.7 9.4 9.6 9.8 10. 1 11.5 4-73 9.9 10.1 9.7 9.5 9.3 9.4 9.6 9.9 11. 1 10. 8 10.9 11. 2 9.0 7.8 7.7 9.0 8.0 7 . 6 \ •5-73 9.7 9.8 9.5 9.3 9.0 9.2 9.3 9. 5 1 C .6 10. 3 10.4 10.5 8. 6 7.5 7.3 8.2 7.3 6.7 1 0-71 11-71 1-72 2-72 3-72 4-72 5- 1 2 6-72 7-72 8-72 9 -72 1 0 - 7 2 U - 7 Ì . . Ì 2 - I 1 1-73 2-73 3-73 i?-n 1,007.4 5.9] 1» 0 1 2 . 2 P 4-73 INITIAL M O N T H P- PRfcLlMINASY . . . ---------- --- ---------------------------------------------------------- _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ -----------------------------------------P R E P A R E D EY F E C E R A L R E S E R V E BA NK OF ST. L O U I S J U NE 20, 1973 9 RETAIL RAT I 0 SALES SCALE 1965 RAT I 0 1966 19 6 7 1968 1969 1970 1971 SOURCE t PER CENT AG ES LATEST AR E A N N U A L DATA P L O T T E D t R A T E S OF C H A NC E FOR P E R I O D S A P R IL P R E L IM IN A R Y , U .S . PERSONAL MONTHLY SCALE T R I L L I ONS OF DOLLARS 1973 OF COMMERCE INDICATED . M AY A D V A N C E E S T I M A T E P R E P A R E D BY F E O E R A L RATI O 1972 DEP AR TM EN T SCALE R E S E R V E B A N K OF S T . LO U IS INCOME T O T A L S AT A N N U A L RATES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED RATI O TRI LLI ONS OF SCALE DOLLARS 0. 0.7 0. 0.6 0. 0.5 19 6 5 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 SOU RC Et PER CE NT AG ES LATEST ARE A N N U A L DATA P L O T T E D t RATES OF C HA NCE FOR P E R I O D S 1971 U.S . 1972 DEP AR TN EN T 1973 OF COMMERCE IN D IC A TE D . MAY P R E L I M I N A R Y PREPARED BY F E D E R A L RES ER VE BANK OF S T . LO U IS 10 G R O S S N A T I O N A L P R O O U C T IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S _____ C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S O F C H A N G E ________ BILLIONS OF -JLE&M.IMAL INITIAL DOLLARS QUARTER QUARTER ANNUAL 2-68 3-68 4-68 1-69 2-69 3-69 4-69 1-70 2-70 3-70 W O 1-71 2 -71 3-71 4-71 1-72 2-72 3-72 RATES 4-72 875.2 4-68 J U S ___ ZalL. 890.2 - U 3 ____ 7 . 4 7.8 - 2 m 2 ____1 ^ 4 7 *6 .921*3- 7 .5 - I m I ____ ZaJi____ 1 ^ 5 ____ I mI ____ 941.7 4-*r* 7.0 6.7 6.6 6.2 5.6 3.1 1-70 6.5 6.2 6.0 5.6 5.0 3.5 2-70 6.5 6.2 6.0 5.7 5.2 4.3 4.9 3-70 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.7 5.4 4.7 5.3 6.0 6.1 4-70 5.9 5.6 5.4 5.1 4.7 4.1 4.3 4.4 3.7 i > | 1-71 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.7 7.2 7.7 14.3 2-71 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.0 7.3 7.7 Ufl 7.9 3-71 6.6 4-71 948.9 958.0 6.5 971.7 7.0 986.3 989.7 1 1.023.4 1.043.0 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.2 5*9 6.4 6.8 7.0 7.2 9.2 6.7 5.4 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.2 6.6 7.0 7,2 7.4 8.9 7.2 6.8 8.3 6.8 7.2 7.6 7.9 8.1 9.5 8.4 8.5 10.1 12.0 1.056.9 •4*10.5% i.078.1 1-72 7.1 7.0 7*0 6.9 6.9 2-72 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.6 8.0 8.3 8. 6 9.8 9.0 9.2 10.5 11.7 11.4 3-72 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.7 8.1 8.4 8.6 9.7 9.0 9.2 10.1 10.8 10.1 8.9 4-72 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 8.0 8.4 8.6 8.9 9.9 9.3 9.5 10.3 10.8 10.4 10.0 1-73 8.0 8.0 8.1 8*1 8.1 8.1 8.5 8.9 9.2 9.5 2-68 3-68 4-68 1-69 2-69 3-69 4-69 1-70 2-70 3-70 INITIAL 1.109.1 1.139.4 1.164.0 11.0 10.5 10.0 10.3 11.1 il.7 11*6 il.7 13.1 4-70 1-71 2-71 3-71 4-71 1-72 2-72 3-72 1.194.9 N 1.237.9 4-72 QUARTER PREPARED BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF M A Y 17. 1 9 7 3 G R O S S N A T I O N A L P R O OUCT IN C O N S T A N T 1958 D O L L A R S __________C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S O F C H A N G E _______________________________________________ ST. LOUIS BILLIONS OF ANNUAL RATES QUARTER 2-68 3-68 4-68 1-69 2-69 3-69 4-69 1-70 2-70 3-70 4-70 1-71 2-71 3-71 4-71 1-72 2-72 3-72 4-72 712.3 3-68 4.0 4-68 3.2 2.4 1-69 3.2 2.9 3.3 722.4 2-69 2.9 2.5 2.6 725.8 716.5 t— ^ 3-69 2.7 2.4 2.4 1.9 4-69 1.9 1.4 1.2 -0.2 -2.2 1-70 1.2 0.8 0.4 -1.0 -2.4 2-70 1.3 0.9 0.6 -0.4 -1.1 -0.3 3-70 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.1 4-70 0.7 0.4 0.1 -0.7 -0.3 1-71 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.2 2-71 1.5 1.3 1.2 0 .8 0.7 3 — 71 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.9 ¡ - I . 2I i 1 729.2 725.1 720.4 723.2 -o., 0.3 1.8 2.0 -1.0 -0.4 -1.4 -4.8 726.8 0.7 1.6 1.6 1.4 8.0 1.2 1.9 2 .0 2.0 ?.6 3.3 1.4 2.0 2.1 2.2 4.6 2.9 2.5 2.7 2.9 3 .0 4.5 6.6 | 718.0 731.9 737.9 742.5 4-71 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 2.0 $.1 4.1 1-72 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.5 3.2 3.4 3.6 5,4 4.7 5.2 6.6 7-7? 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 3.2 3.8 4.1 4.4 6.0 5.6 6.2 7.5 3.0 3.5 4.1 4.4 4.7 6.1 5.8 6.3 7.2 3-72 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9 vJ+6.5% 754.5 766.5 6 . 5 X 783.9 7.4 7.9 6.4 796.1 4-72 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.8 4.4 4.7 5.0 6.3 6.1 6.6 7.4 7.6 7.9 7.2 8 . 0 \ 811.6 1-73 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.7 4.1 4.7 5.0 5.3 6.5 6.3 6.8 7.5 7.6 7.9 7.4 8.0 •27.3 2-68 3-68 4-68 2-69 3-69 4-69 1-70 2-70 3-70 4-70 1-71 2-71 3-71 4-71 1-72 2-72 3-72 1-69 INITIAL 8.0 \ 4-72 QUARTER PREPAREO BY FEOERAL RESERVE MAY 17, 1973 BANK OF S T . LOUIS 11 DE MAND RATIO SCALE TRILLIONS QUARTERLY OF DOLLARS AND PRODUCTION TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATIO RATES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED TRILLIONS OF SCALE DOLLARS ) I .0 0.9 0 . 8 0.7 0 . 0 0.6 . 0 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 ULGNP I N CURRENT DOLLARS. I2GNP 1970 SOURCE: 1971 U.S. 1972 1973 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE I N 1 9 5 8 DOLLARS. PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR P ER I ODS LATEST DATA P L O T T E D : INDICATED. 1ST QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T , LOUIS 12 C O M P E N S A T I O N P E R M A N - H O U R . TOT A L P R I V A T E E C O N O M Y C O M P O U N O E O A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E T E R M I N A L _________________ _________ QUARTER 1-69 2- 68 3 - 6 8 4- 6 8 3-68 8.9 4-6 8 8. 8 8.7 1-69 7.9 7.3 5.9 2-69 7.9 7.w 7.0 8. 1 INI T I A L Q U A R T E R 2-69 3-69 4-69 1-70 2-70 3-70 4-70 1 9 6 7 * 100 1-7 1 2 -71 3-71 4-71 1-72 2-72 3-72 4-72 108.6 110.9 112.5 11 4 . 7 116.7 3-69 7.8 7.5 7.0 7.6 7.2 4-69 8. 1 8.0 7.8 8 .4 8.5 9.9 i-70 7.9 7 .8 7.6 8.0 8.0 8.4 2-70 7.7 7.5 7.3 7.6 7.5 7.6 3-70 7.9 7.8 7.6 7.9 7.9 8. 1 7 .4 7.7 9 .4 7.5 7.3 7.5 7. 4 7.5 6 .9 6.9 7 .3 5.2 119.5 121.5 6.9 123.3 6.1 *■ I o 126.1 7.6 1-71 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.7 7.7 7.8 7.4 7.5 8. 0 7.3 9.4 2-71 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.1 7.2 7.5 6.8 7.7 5 .9 3-71 7.5 7.4 7.2 7.4 5.9 4-71 7.3 7.2 7.0 1-72 7.4 7.3 7.1 2-72 7.3 7.1 7.0 7.1 3-72 7.1 7.0 6. 9 6.9 4-72 7.1 7. 0 6.9 7.0 1-73 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.3 2- 68 3-68 4-68 1- 6 9 2-6 9 7.3 7.3 7.1 7.1 7.0 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.0 7.0 6. 8 6.8 127.7 130.6 132.5 134.4 5.9 7.0 7.1 6.6 7.1 6.7 6.7 6. 8 6.2 6.5 5.6 5.4 4.8 6.9 6.9 7 .0 6.6 6.9 6.3 6. 4 6.7 8.5 6.8 6.7 6. 8 6.5 6 .7 6. 1 6. 2 6. 3 7.0 5.6 6.5 6. 5 6.5 6.2 6 .3 5.8 5.8 5.8 6. 1 5. 0 4. 3 6.9 6. 9 6.6 6.7 6.4 6.6 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.6 6.0 6.2 8. 1 7.2 7.2 7.0 7.1 6.9 7.1 6.8 6.9 7.1 7.6 7.3 7.9 9.8 11. 5 1-70 2-70 3-70 4-70 1-7 1 2-71 3-71 4-71 1-72 2-72 3-7 2 4-72 4-69 136.0 138.8 140.7 1 4 2.2 145.0 149.0 INIIIAL UUAKIbK P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E M AY 29, 197 3 B A N K OF ST. L O U I S OUTPUT PER MAN-HOUR, TOTAL PRIVATE ECONOMY C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E TERMINAL INITIAL Q U A R T E R 1 9 6 7 » 100 Q U A R T E R -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- — -----------2— 68 3 - 6 8 4 - 6 8 1-69 2 - 6 9 3-69 4-69 1-70 2-70 3-70 4-70 1-71 2-71 3-71 4-71 1-72 2- 7 2 3-72 4-72 3-6 8 2.4 2-63— r-68 103.3 4-63— — 2-69 ---- ------------------------- 3-69— *=&} T^TD Z-TO 3=73 4^-TO— I^TT— 2-71— 3-71 4-71— 1-72— 2-72— 3-72— 4-72 INITIAL u u a k 1fc« PSFPAffED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LoOl MAY 29, 1973 13 PRODUCTIVITY, RATI O COMPENSATI ON, AND LABOR COSTS SCALE RATI O SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1967-100 S O U R C Ei PER C E N TA G ES LATEST ARE A N M U Al DATA P L O T T E D i R A T ES OF CHANCE FOR PE R IO O S SCALE 1967-100 U .S . D EPA R TM EN T OF LABOR ST. L O U IS IN D IC A T E D . 1ST QUARTER P R EP A R E D BY FE D E R A L R ES ER V E BANK OF UNIT LABOR COSTS» TOTAL PRIVATt E C O NOMY C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E 2-68 3-68 4-68 ____ 1-69 3-68 6.3 4-68 6. 7 7.0 l-t>9 6. 6 6.8 6.5 2-69 7.1 7.4 7.6 8.7 ______ 2-69 3- 6 9 __________ 4-69 INITIAL Q U A R T E R 1-70 2-70 3-70 * i o ____ TERMINAL QUARTh R 1 9 6 7 * 100 1-71 2- 7 1 3- 7 1 4-71 1-72 2-72 3-72 4-72 105. 1 106.9 108.6 110.9 3- 6 9 7.2 7.4 7.6 8.1 7.4 4-69 7.8 8.1 8.3 8.9 9. 0 10.7 1-70 7.9 3. 1 ft.4 8.8 8. 9 9.6 8.6 2-70 7. 1 7.2 7.2 7.4 7.0 6.9 5. 1 1.7 112.9 115.8 118.2 118.7 3-70 6. 6 6.6 6. 5 6. 5 6.1 5.8 4.2 2. 0 2.4 4-70 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.3 6.0 4. 9 3. 7 4.8 1-71 6.2 6. 1 6. 0 6.0 5.6 5.3 4.3 3.2 3.7 4.4 1.7 2- 7 1 6. 0 5.9 5.8 5. 8 5.4 5. 1 4.2 3.4 3.8 4.3 2.8 4. 0 3-71 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.0 4.8 3.9 3. 2 3 .5 3.3 2.6 3. 1 2.3 4-71 5.3 5.3 5.1 5. 0 4.6 4. 3 3.6 2. 9 3.1 3.2 2.2 2.4 1.6 1.0 5. 0 4.7 4.4 3. 7 3.1 3.3 3.5 2.8 3.0 2.7 2.9 4 . 9 ^ ^ 119.4 7.2 121.5 122.0 123.2 x .O /O- 123.9 1 24 . 2 1 -72 5.3 5.2 5. 1 2-72 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.2 3.9 3.3 2. 7 2.8 2.9 2 .2 2.3 1.9 1.7 2.1 -0.6^vw 125.5 3 -72 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.2 3.9 3.6 3.0 2.4 2.5 2.5 1.9 1.9 1.5 1 .3 1.4 -0.3 125.5 4-72 4. 6 4. 5 4.3 4.2 3.8 3.6 3.0 2.5 2 .6 2.6 2.0 2.1 1.8 1. 7 1.9 0.8 1.6 3.2 1 -7 3 4. 7 4.6 4.4 4. 3 4.0 3.8 3.3 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.5 2.6 2 .4 2.5 2.8 2.2 3.2 4.8 4-68 1-69 2-69 3-69 4-69 1-70 2-70 3-70 4-70 1-71 2-71 3-71 4-71 1-72 2-72 3-72 2-68 3- 6 ft 125.7 C.O^N^ 126.5 6.5] 128.5 4 - 72 1N 1 1 IAL UUAKlfcH P R E P A R E D BY ^ E D E R A L MA Y 29, 19 73 RESERVE B AN K O e ST. L O U I S 14 C O N S U M E R P R I C E I N DEX, S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E D C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E______ TERMINAL MONTH 1*67 « MO -IH tlL A l MQNTH -1Q.-U li-71 12-71 --- L-72 2-72 3-72 *-72 5-72 6-72 7-72 8-72 9-72 10-72 11-72 12-72 1-73 2-73 3-73 4-73 -11-71 122.43 12-71 123.0« 123.36 123« 9 9 3.5 -3.-1 3.3 124, _ 3 ^ ____li_L_ 07 124.30 ?.«2 124.68 10-71 11-71 12-71 1-72 2-72 3-7 2 *-72 5-72 6-72 7-72 8-72 9-72 10-72 11-72 12-72 1-73 2-73 3-73 4-73 I N I TIAL M O N T H P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E J U N E 2 1 t 1 9 7 3__________ B A N K OF ST. L O U I S WHOLESALE PRICES - INDUSTRIAL COMMODITIES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E TERMINAL MONTH 10-71 12-71 0. 7 2.1 3.4 ■ ..r-72 2.6 3 .6 Z-72 T. 2 ~47TJ 4. T 1.9 4.1 3/3- 4- 7Z 5-72 “ "3 .’ 5" 3 ^7 6-72 — 3.4 7-7 2 'T.'5" 1^77 3.6 9-7 2 ' 3.6 ÏZFYT- "ITT I T- 7 2 3.5 Si?-?T 3.3 2-72 1 -72 3-72 4-72 5-72 6-72 7-72 8-72 9-72 10-72 11-72 12-Ï2 1-73 2-73 3-7T 4-73 1 1 $ . 16 n - n 12-71 3-72 1 9 6 7 « 100 INITIAL M O NTH 11-71 115.48 115 . 8* J.8 « . U .. 4".T. 116.30 116.64 4.2 3 .6 ' *.2 3 . y ' 4. 3 4.2 4.2 IIf.U5 117.45 4. 0 4.F 4.2" 4 • t) 4. 1 4.2 4 .3 4. 1 4.3 4.3 " 4.5 379 4 . 0 ” 4. 0 3. a 3:9" 3.8 3. 6 " 7.7" 3T9"~ 4.0 4.0 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.8 J.4 4. 1 3 .9 3.9 3.8 3.9" 3.8 3.7 374 3.8 ~3.9 "3.5 118. 1« 118.54 3.4 118.87 lIS.93 3.4 3.4 372" 3. r ~ 2:r ¿.Ì 2.0 0.6 3.7“ “ 3.7“ 375~ 3.6 3.5 3.3 "3.r 3.2 2.9 2.7 4.8 3.6 - 3.5 3.4 3.4 T73“ 3.1 2.9 3.Ö 2.7 2.4 3. 4 1.9 3.6 " "376" 3V 7 117.88 3. 6 r v 119.40 119.59 V + 9 . 9 % 119.94 3.5 3.6 3. 5 377 3.4 "ITT 3.2“ 3:ö 3.1 2.9 2.7 3.4 2.7 3.6 2-73 3.9 4.1 4. I 4. 2 4.T T.T 472 4.2" 4.1 4. 3 4 . 3~ 4. 5 5. 5 5.8 7.8 12.1 3-73 4. 5 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5^ 5.8 6.3 7.4 8.1 1Ö.2 13.7 4 -7 5 .. 5.2 T7'4" $.6 “577" 5.B"‘ '' 5.'T" ¿.1 6. 2 6.4 6. 8 7.2 7.7 14 . 8 16.1 17.Ö 5.7 6. 0 6. I 6. 3 6.4 6. 6 <r.“ r 7 .Ö 7.2 7.7 Ö.1 8.7 9.0 9.8 r r 9 . 9 1 1 0.7 li.9 5-73 12.6 1 4.9 15.9 16.2 15.5 1 10-71 11-71 12-71 1-72 2-7 2 3-7 2 4-72 5-72 6-72 7-72 8-72 9-72 10-72 11-72 12-72 1-73 2-73 3-73 4-73 .... T - T T “ ^ r . 4 - 121.09 122.33 15.2 124.14 T25.64 I\iiì I AL M O N T H - - ------- ----- - ----- ------- -------- ------- -----PÄCFARED by FEDERAL JUN E 7 , 1973 RESERVE B ANK OF ST. L O U I S 15 RATIO SCALE 1967 = 100 PRICES SEASONALLY RATIO ADJUSTED PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERI OOS SCAL E 1967*100 INDICATED. LATEST DATA PL O T T ED : MAY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS 16 WHOLESALE PRICES - ALL COMMODITIES, SEASONALLY ADJ U STED C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S CF C H A N G E TERMINAL ' M O N T H _______ .10 - 7 1 "T t - T T 1 2 - 7 1 11-71 1.8 12-71 A .4 7.1 1-/2 r 6. i 3-71 T - U T-7T 8-72 1967 = 100 9 - 7 2 ;1 0 - 7 2 1 1 - 7 2 12-72 1-73 2^73 3-73” 4-73 Ü0.14 . 5„7. 3-72 4.5 5.2 4.6 4.3 2.1 4-J2 a *♦.4 4. j *. B J .4 5- 7 2 A« A. 7 4.6 3.9 4.8 6-72 4.7 4. 7 4.6 7-72 6-72 115.75 6.3 ' 8-72 4-72 ■ 5-72 115.09 5.Z 2-72 ..... . INITIAL M O NTH 1 -72 :3 ~"*r. r 5.1 5.1 .. 5" 5" 'S.3 •>. 7 9-72 5.3 5.7 10-72 A •9 _ 5. 3 _ 6. 6 5.3 4 . 2 .4. 9 ""570“ 5. 5 ..T74" 5.5 5.2 """■577J“ _ 117.06 11/. 39 6. 2 117.98T 5.6 T.C 118.46” 5.7 6.5 6. T 8.4 6.Ö 6. 7 6.8 7.8 7 .2 6. 5 6.6 7.2 6.6 6.0 5. 5 . 5 . 3 5.4 4.5 3.1 0.4 5.6 5.4 6. 0 5. 0 4.8 ...5 ^ 2 119.26 119.95 120.53 120.57 11-72 5.2 5.5 5.4 5.2 5.6 5.9 5.9 6.1 5.5 4.9 4.4 8.6 12-72 *. 2 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.6 7.1 7. 6 7. 8 8.3 8.3 8.5 9.4 14.2 20.1 1-73 6. 6 6.9 6.9 't• 1 7.1 7.6 8.1 8.3 8. 8 fl.9" 9.2 10.1 13. 5 16.0 2- 7 3 ” 7.4 7. 8 7.9 8.1 B.T 8. 8 9.3 9. 7 1Ö.2 10. 5 11.1 12 . 1 15.3 17.6 16.3 20.9 3-7 3 "8.7 9. 1 9. 3 9 .6 S.8 10. 5 11 . 1 11.6 12.4 12.9 13 . 8 15.1 18.3 20.9 21 . r 26.0 31.3 4-73 8.9 ;t t 1Ö.6 11 . 2 .T I 7 7 - 1 2.4 1779" 13.6 14. 7 1 7 . 3 ”" 1 9 . 1 r8T9" 21.Z 21.4 1273' 5-73 9.8 10.3 1 0.4 10 . 8 ü. r 11.7 12.4 12.S 13.7 14.2 15.1 16.2 18.7 20.5 20.5 22.8 23.4 1 9.7 27.5 ] 10-71 11 - 7 1 12-71 1-7 2 2-72 3-72 4-72 5-72 6-72 7-72 8-72 9-72 10-72 11-72 12-72 1-73 2-73 3-73 4-73 9 . 3 .. 9 7 5 “ 9.8 t o 121.40 123.27 sJ+18.7% 12.Ô 124.44 ' ITS. 4 2 129.32 N 130.58 133.25 I N I T I A L 1M O N T H , P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E JUNE 7 , 1973 W H O L E S A L E P R I C E S - F A R M PRODU C T S AND P R O C E S S E D FOODS AND FEEDS, C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L RA T E S OF C H A N G E TERMINAL MONTH 10-71 B A N K OF ST. L O U I S S E A S • ADJ . 1 9 6 7 * 100 INITIAL MONTH 11-71 12-71 1-72 2-72 3-72 4-72 5-72 6-72 7-72 8-72 9-72 10-72 11-72 12-72 1-73 2-73 3- Í3 " 4 - r r 115.0 11-71 4.3 1 2 -71 1 1.5 19.3 1-72 9.8 12.¿ 2-72 13.3 12.4 9.1 11. 9 3-72 8. 1 9. 1 6.0 5.8 0.0 4.2 0.5 116.7 117.3 6.3 118.4 118.4 118.5 4-72 6.9 7. 5 4 .7 1.Ò *>-72 7.4 8.0 5. 9 “577~ 3.8 5. 7 10 . 6 6-72 7.3 7.7 5.9 5.8 4. 4 5.9 8.4 6.2 7-72 8 .9 9.5 8.2 8.5 7.9 9.9 13 . 1 14.3 ¿3.1 8-72 9.7 10 . 3 9.3 9.7 9 .3 11. 3 14.0 15.2 20.0 16.9 119.5 120.1 122.2 123.8 125.5 9-72 10.4 11.1 10.2 10.7 10.5 12.4 14 . 8 15.8 19 . 2 17.3 17.8 10-72 9.2 9.6 8.7 9.0 8.6 9.9 il.A 11. ¿ 13.0 9.8 6.5 -3.8 1 1-72 10.0 10. 5 9.8 10.1 9.9 11. 2 12.8 13.1 14.6 12.5 11.1 7.9 21. Ô 1 2-72 13.9 14.7 14.3 15.1 15.4 17. 2 19.4 20.8 23.4 23.4 25.1 27.7 47.0 78.7 15.9 16 . 7 17.2 19 . 0 21 . 2 22.6 ¿5.2 ¿5.5 27.3 29.8 43.4 56.2 36.4 1257r 127.1 133.4 136.9 1-73 15 . 3 16. 1 2-73 16.8 17.7 17.6 18.5 19.1 21.0 23.2 24.7 27.2 27.8 29.7 32.2 43.2 5l. 5 39.4 42.5 3-7 3 19.8 20.9 21.0 22.1 22.9 25.1 27.5 29.4 32.2 33.4 36.0 39.3 49.9 58.2 51.9 60.3 80.3 4-73 18.7 19.6 19. 6 20.6 ¿1. 2 ¿3.5 25.1 2é. 5 “T ?77~ “ 2 9 . 3 31. 0 33.0 40.3 44. 6 T 77T 37.3 34.8 5-73 20.7 21.6 21.8 22.8 23 . 6 25.5 27.6 29. 1 31.4 32.3 34.1 36.3 43.3 47.4 41.8 43.? 43.4 27.9“ 62.3 10-71 1 1 -71 12-71 1-72 2-72 3-72 4-72 5-72 6-72 7- 7 2 8-72 9-72 :1 0 - 7 2 11-72 12-72 1- 7 3 2-73 3-73 INITIAL 141.0 14 8 . 1 0.8 148.2 154.3 4-73 MONTH P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E J U N E 7, 1 9 73 B A N K CF ST. L O U I S 17 RATIO WHOLESALE SCALE 1967*100 SEASONALLY PRICES ADJUSTED PER CE N TAGES ARE ANNUAL R ATES OF CHANGE FOR P E R I O D S L A T E S T DATA P L O T T E D : RATIO SCALE 1967*100 INDICATED. MAY PREPARED BY F ED E RA L R ESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS 18 GENERAL RATI O PRICE INDEX* SCALE RATI O 1958-100 *AS USE D IN N A T IO N A L I N C OM E A C C O U N T S P E R C E N T A G E S A RE A N N U A L LATEST SCALE 1958-100 DATA P L O T T E D : RAT ES SOURCE: OF CH AN GE FOR P E R I O D S U.S . D E P A R T M E N T OF COMMERCE IN D IC ATED . 1ST QUARTER P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K OF S T . LO U IS IMPLICIT P R ICE D E F L A T O R FOR GROSS N A T I O N A L PRO D U C T ____________C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E ___________ ___ INITIAL 2 - 6 8 ___ ________ 4 - 6 8 1-69 2~69 3-69 4-69 l~70 2-70 3-70 2-68 1-69 2-69 3-69 4-69 1-70 2-70 3-70 3-68 4-68 J"N I T I A L 1958 Q U A R T tR 4-70 1-71 2-7 1 3 - 7 1 ___ 4 - 7 1 1 - 7 2 ___ 7 - 1 2 ___W 2 ___4 z 7 2 _ 4-70 1-71 2-71 3-71 1-72 4-71 2-72 = 100 3-72 QU A R XER PREPARED 8Y FE DER AL MAY 17. 1973 RESERVE BANK OF ST. L OU IS
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