Full text of National Economic Trends : July 2011
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NationalEconomicTrends July 2011 The Gender Wage Gap T he wage differential between male and female workers tion, career interruption, part-time status, and overtime hours has declined significantly over the past 30 years. For worked. The result was striking—these factors explain approxiexample, in 1979 the median weekly earnings of fullmately three-fourths of the 20.4 percent raw gender wage gap time female workers were only 63.5 percent of those of fullin 2007. The adjusted 2007 gender wage gap is roughly 5 pertime male workers—a 36.5 percent difference. This earnings cent. It is reasonable to believe, therefore, that the actual 2011:Q1 gap dropped to 30 percent in 1989 and 23.7 percent in 1999. gender earnings disparity is likely to be closer to 4 to 5 percent As of 2011:Q1, it reached a historical low of 17.2 percent. rather than the 17.2 percent shown in the chart (gray circle).5 Despite this trend, studies suggest that actual gender wage Current research suggests that gender earnings disparity has disparity (which compares wages of male and female workers declined but not disappeared. The adjusted (“true”) gender wage with similar labor-force characteristics) is smaller than the raw gap, however, is substantially smaller than the raw gender wage gender earnings gap discussed above. gap. Because of this, the raw gender gap is the improper indiOne recent study found that women’s progress in educational cator for policymakers to use to justify corrective actions. attainment during the 1970s and 1980s was the main explana—Natalia A. Kolesnikova and Yang Liu tion for the decline in the gender wage gap in the 1980s and early 1990s.1 In addition, women’s gains in work experience 1 Blau, Francine D. and Khan, Lawrence M. “Gender Differences in Pay.” accounted for one-third of the gap’s decline in the 1990s.2 As Journal of Economic Perspectives, Fall 2000, 14(4), pp. 75-99. women become more educated, they have more employment 2 Blau, Francine D. and Khan, Lawrence M. “The U.S. Gender Pay Gap in the opportunities in occupations that require higher skills and pay 1990s: Slowing Convergence.” Industrial and Labor Relations Review, October 2006, 60(1), pp. 45-66. higher wages. Such occupational “upgrades” have helped to 3 Lowen, Aaron and Sicilian, Paul. “‘Family-Friendly’ Fringe Benefits and the narrow the wage gap, but there are still significantly fewer Gender Wage Gap.” Journal of Labor Research, Spring 2009, 30(2), pp. 101-19. women in highly paid occupations in law, medicine, and busi4 CONSAD Research Corporation. “An Analysis of Reasons for the Disparity ness management. in Wages between Men and Women.” January 2009; www.consad.com/content/ Another important reason for the gender wage gap is the reports/Gender%20Wage%20Gap%20Final%20Report.pdf. difference between men and women in labor-force attachment. 5 Put differently, the “real” gender wage gap in average weekly earnings is Women are likely to leave a career temporarily for childbirth about $35. and raising children. Such leaves may be associated with a decrease in their human capital and temporary delays in training and promotion, which consequently lead to lower wages. In addition, women are more Median Usual Weekly Earnings of Full-Time Workers likely to work part-time and less likely to work overtime than men, which negatively Gap (percent) Dollars affects their wages. Evidence suggests that 40.6 900 Women (left axis) 2011:Q1 female workers receive more family-friendly 800 Men (left axis) 35.6 benefits but usually at the cost of lower Wage Gap (right axis) 700 30.6 wages.3 Similarly, women of childbearing 600 age may prefer lower-wage jobs with 25.6 500 employer-provided health insurance to higher17.2 20.6 400 wage jobs without health insurance. 15.6 A recent report prepared for the U.S. 300 10.6 Department of Labor thoroughly analyzed 200 the gender wage gap using Current Popula5.6 100 tion Survey data for 2007.4 The report esti0.6 0 mated the gap accounting for differences 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 between male and female workers in educaSOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics. tional attainment, work experience, occupaViews expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System. research.stlouisfed.org Contents Page 3 4 7 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 29 Economy at a Glance Output and Growth Interest Rates Inflation and Prices Labor Markets Consumer Spending Investment Spending Government Revenues, Spending, and Debt International Trade Productivity and Profits FOMC Economic Projections Quick Reference Tables Notes and Sources Conventions used in this publication: 1. Shaded areas indicate recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. 2. Percent change refers to simple percent changes. Percent change from year ago refers to the percent change from the same month or quarter during the previous year. Compounded annual rate of change shows what the growth rate would be over an entire year if the same simple percent change continued for four quarters or twelve months. The compounded annual rate of change of x between the previous quarter t –1 and the current quarter t is: [(xt /x t – 1 )4 –1] × 100. For monthly data replace 4 with 12. 3. All data with significant seasonal patterns are adjusted accordingly, unless labeled NSA. We welcome your comments addressed to: Editor, National Economic Trends Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis P.O. Box 442 St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or to: stlsFRED@stls.frb.org National Economic Trends is published by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Visit the Research Division’s website at research.stlouisfed.org/publications/net to download the current version of this publication or register for e-mail notification updates. For more information on data in this publication, please visit research.stlouisfed.org/fred2 or call (314) 444-8573. updated through 07/01/11 National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth Consumer Price Index Compounded annual rates of change Percent change 9 1.2 0.8 6 0.4 3 0.0 0 -0.4 -0.8 -3 -1.2 -6 -1.6 -9 -2.0 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 17532 2008 17898 Industrial Production Interest Rates Percent change Percent 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 5 2 10-Year Treasury 1 4 0 3 -1 -2 2 -3 1 3-Month Treasury -4 -5 0 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 Unemployment Rate Thousands Percent of labor force 600 11.2 400 10.2 200 9.2 0 8.2 -200 7.2 -400 6.2 -600 5.2 -800 -1000 4.2 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 3 updated through 07/01/11 National Economic Trends Real Gross Domestic Product Percent change from year ago 10 5 0 -5 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Industrial Production and Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Indexes Percent change from year ago Index 18 74 Industrial Production (left scale) 12 66 6 58 0 50 ISM (right scale) -6 42 34 -12 -18 26 86 8 6 87 8 7 88 8 8 89 8 9 90 9 0 91 9 1 92 9 2 93 9 3 94 9 4 95 9 5 96 9 6 97 9 7 98 9 8 99 9 9 00 0 0 01 0 1 02 0 2 03 0 3 04 0 4 05 0 5 06 0 6 07 0 7 08 0 8 09 0 9 11 10 1 0 1 1 1 2 Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Percent change from year ago 12 8 4 0 -4 -8 -12 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Real Change in Private Inventories Percent of GDP 2 1 0 -1 -2 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Research Division 4 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 07/01/11 National Economic Trends Real Final Sales and GDP Real GDP Revisions Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 8 15 GDP (bar) 6 Final Sales Advance 12 4 Second Third 9 Annual Revision 2 6 0 3 -2 0 -4 -6 -3 17898 2009 18263 2010 2011 18628 Industrial Production and ISM Index Percent change 68 ISM (right scale) 2 2010:2 2010:3 2010:4 2011:1 Nominal Gross Domestic Product Index 3 2010:1 18993 62 Compounded annual rates of change 8 6 4 1 56 0 50 Industrial Production (bar) (left scale) -1 44 2 0 -2 -4 38 -2 -3 32 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 -6 -8 17898 18993 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Average Weekly Private Nonfarm Hours Percent change Hours 18993 33.75 1.00 0.75 0.50 33.50 0.25 0.00 33.25 -0.25 -0.50 -0.75 33.00 -1.00 -1.25 -1.50 32.75 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 Real Change in Private Inventories 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 Inventory-Sales Ratio Billions of 2005 dollars Manufacturing and trade 150 1.50 100 1.46 1.42 50 1.38 0 1.34 -50 1.30 -100 1.26 -150 1.22 -200 1.18 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 5 updated through 06/24/11 National Economic Trends Contribution of Components to Real GDP Growth Percentage points at compounded annual rates 9 6 3 0 -3 -6 -9 09Q2 09Q3 09Q4 10Q1 Consumption Imports 10Q2 10Q3 Exports Inventories 10Q4 11Q1 Government Investment Contributions to Real GDP Growth Rate 2009 2010 2011 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 0.33 0.50 2.18 1.09 0.90 0.95 6.53 0.60 Consumption -1.12 1.41 0.69 1.33 1.54 1.67 2.79 1.52 Fixed Investment -1.26 0.12 -0.12 0.39 2.06 0.18 0.80 0.16 -0.72 -0.13 -0.10 0.71 1.51 0.93 0.73 0.20 -0.54 0.25 -0.02 -0.32 0.55 -0.75 0.07 -0.05 1.24 0.33 -0.28 -0.32 0.80 0.79 -0.34 -1.20 1.11 0.45 0.01 0.15 0.72 0.71 -0.02 -0.69 0.13 -0.12 -0.29 -0.48 0.08 0.09 -0.31 -0.51 Net Exports 1.47 -1.37 1.90 -0.31 -3.50 -1.70 3.27 0.14 Exports Imports -0.08 1.30 2.56 1.30 1.08 0.82 1.06 0.97 1.55 -2.67 -0.66 -1.61 -4.58 -2.53 2.21 -0.84 -1.03 1.10 2.83 2.64 0.82 1.61 -3.42 1.31 0.27 0.24 -0.04 0.03 -0.18 0.02 -0.30 0.04 -0.70 1.60 5.01 3.73 1.72 2.56 3.11 1.91 Final Sales Nonresidential Residential Government Federal State and Local Change in Inventory Residual Real GDP Growth Research Division 6 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 07/01/11 National Economic Trends Interest Rates Percent 18 15 12 9 10-Year Treasury 6 3-Month Treasury 3 0 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 Treasury Yield Curve Percent 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 | | Jun 2011 2.0 1.5 1.0 Week Ending: 06/24/2011 Jun 2010 0.5 0.0 3m 1y . 2y 5y 7y 10y Standard and Poor's 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends Percent change from year ago 75 50 25 0 -25 -50 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 7 updated through 06/24/11 National Economic Trends NIPA Chain Price Indexes Percent change from year ago 6 4 GDP 2 Gross Domestic Purchases 0 -2 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Consumer Price Index Percent change from year ago 8 6 4 Excl. Food and Energy 2 All Items 0 -2 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Producer Price Index, Finished Goods Percent change from year ago 12 8 Excl. Food and Energy 4 0 PPI -4 -8 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Employment Cost Index and Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago 12 9 Comp. per Hour 6 3 ECI 0 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Research Division 8 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 07/01/11 National Economic Trends NIPA Chain Price Indexes Oil & Natural Gas Prices: Spot & Futures Compounded annual rates of change Dollars per barrel 6 4 48 132 40 108 GDP (bar) 2 Dollars per million btu 156 32 Spot Oil (left scale) 84 60 Gross Domestic Purchases -2 36 -4 17898 2010 18263 2011 18628 18993 16 8 Spot Gas (right scale) 12 2009 24 Oil Futures (left scale) 0 Gas Futures (right scale) 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Note: Futures prices as of 6/30/2011. Consumer Price Index Consumption Chain Price Index Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 9 12 9 6 CPI (bar) 6 Excl. Food & Energy PCE (bar) 3 3 0 0 Excl. Food & Energy -3 -6 -3 2009 17898 2010 18263 2011 18628 18993 17898 2009 2010 18263 Producer Price Index, Finished Goods Unit Labor Cost Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 30 12 PPI (bar) 20 18628 2011 18993 Nonfarm 6 10 0 0 Excl. Food & Energy -10 -6 -20 Manufacturing (bar) -12 2009 17898 2010 18263 2011 18628 18993 17898 2009 18263 2010 Employment Cost Index Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago Compounded annual rates of change 4 18628 2011 18993 12 Wages and Salaries 9 3 6 2 3 || ||| Compensation Benefits 1 0 -3 0 -6 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 9 updated through 06/03/11 National Economic Trends Employment Percent change from year ago 8 6 4 Payroll Survey 2 Household Survey 0 -2 -4 -6 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 Unemployment, Labor Force Participation, and Employment Rates Percent of labor force Percent of population 15 70 Labor Force/Population (right scale) 67 12 Employment/Population (right scale) 9 64 6 61 Unemployment Rate (left scale) 3 58 0 55 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 Duration of Unemployment Percent of labor force Weeks 6.00 28 5.25 25 4.50 22 3.75 19 3.00 2.25 1.50 16 Unemployed < 5 Weeks (left scale) 13 Unemployed > 15 Weeks (left scale) 10 Median (right scale) 0.75 7 0.00 4 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 Research Division 10 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 06/08/11 National Economic Trends Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Change in Manufacturing Payrolls Thousands Thousands 600 100 400 50 200 0 0 -50 -200 -100 -400 -150 -600 -200 -800 -250 -1000 -300 2009 17898 2010 18263 2011 18628 18993 Change in Household Employment 2009 17898 2010 18263 2011 18628 18993 Labor Force and Population Thousands Percent change from year ago 900 2.4 600 90% Confidence 1.8 300 0 Pop. 1.2 0.6 -300 Labor Force 0.0 -600 -0.6 -900 -1200 -1.2 2009 17898 2010 18263 2011 18628 18993 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 Available Labor Supply and Components Unemployment Rate & Job Openings Rate Percent of labor force Percent 16 12 9 14 11 8 90% Confidence Percent 10 12 Unemployment Rate (left scale) 9 10 8 8 7 6 Available Labor Supply Unemployed 4 Want to Work 2 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 7 6 5 Job Openings Rate (right scale) 4 6 3 5 2 4 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 1 2006 16802 2007 17167 2008 17532 2009 17898 2010 18263 2011 18628 2012 18993 19359 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 11 updated through 06/24/11 National Economic Trends Real Disposable Personal Income Percent change from year ago, quarterly data 12 8 4 0 -4 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Real Consumption Percent change from year ago, quarterly data Percent change from year ago, quarterly data 24 12 Durables (left scale) 16 8 8 4 Total (right scale) 0 0 -8 -4 -16 -8 86 8 6 87 8 7 88 8 8 89 8 9 90 9 0 91 9 1 92 9 2 93 9 3 94 9 4 95 9 5 96 9 6 97 9 7 98 9 8 99 9 9 00 0 0 01 0 1 02 0 2 03 0 3 04 0 4 05 0 5 06 0 6 07 0 7 08 0 8 09 0 9 11 10 1 0 1 1 1 2 Retail and Food Services Sales Percent change from year ago, quarterly average 16 12 8 4 0 -4 -8 -12 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 *Data from Jan. 1992 to the present are on a NAICS basis; data prior to Jan. 1992 are on an SIC basis and are not strictly comparable (see End Note). Debt Service Payments and Household Debt Outstanding Percent change from year ago, quarterly data Percent of disposable personal income 15 18 15 14 Debt Service Payments (right scale) 12 13 9 12 6 11 Household Debt Outstanding (left scale) 3 10 0 9 -3 8 86 8 6 87 8 7 88 8 8 89 8 9 90 9 0 91 9 1 92 9 2 93 9 3 94 9 4 95 9 5 96 9 6 97 9 7 98 9 8 99 9 9 00 0 0 01 0 1 02 0 2 03 0 3 04 0 4 05 0 5 06 0 6 07 0 7 08 0 8 09 0 9 11 10 1 0 1 1 1 2 Research Division 12 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 06/27/11 National Economic Trends Real Disposable Personal Income Personal Saving Rate Percent change Percent 2.0 10 1.5 8 1.0 0.5 6 0.0 4 -0.5 -1.0 2 -1.5 -2.0 0 2009-01-01 2009 2010 2010-01-01 2011-01-01 2011 2012-01-01 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 Real Consumption Real Consumption Compounded annual rates of change Percent change 4.5 1.2 3.0 0.9 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 0.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 -1.5 -0.3 -3.0 -0.6 -4.5 -0.9 2009-01-01 2009 2010 2010-01-01 2011-01-01 2011 2012-01-01 2009-01-01 2009 2010 2010-01-01 2011-01-01 2011 2012-01-01 Retail & Food Services Real Durables Consumption & Vehicle Sales Percent change Percent change 10 3 Millions of vehicles, annual rate 27 Durables (bar) (left scale) Total (bar) 2 5 21 0 15 1 0 Ex. Autos -1 -5 -3 9 Autos and Light Trucks (right scale) -2 -10 2009 17898 2010 18263 2011 18628 18993 Consumer Sentiment (U. of Michigan) 17898 3 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 Real Durables Consumption Index Compounded annual rates of change 110 30.0 100 22.5 90 15.0 80 7.5 70 0.0 60 50 -7.5 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 2009-01-01 2009 2010-01-01 2010 2011-01-01 2011 2012-01-01 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 13 updated through 06/24/11 National Economic Trends Investment Percent of nominal GDP 24 22 Total 20 18 16 Private 14 12 10 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Private Fixed Investment Percent change from year ago 30 24 18 Nominal 12 6 Real 0 -6 -12 -18 -24 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Real Nonresidential Fixed and Equipment & Software Investment Percent change from year ago 30 Equipment & Software 24 18 12 6 Nonresidential 0 -6 -12 -18 -24 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Real Residential Fixed Investment Percent change from year ago 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Research Division 14 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 06/24/11 National Economic Trends Gross Saving Rates and Balance on Current Account (NIPA) Percent of GDP 25 20 Gross Private Saving 15 10 Gross Govt. Saving 5 0 BOCA -5 -10 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 Real Private Fixed Investment Nondefense Capital Goods Orders Compounded annual rates of change Percent change from year ago, excluding aircraft 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20 -30 -30 -40 11 10 10 11 12 Orders Equipment & Software Investment -40 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 Real Equipment & Software Investment Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 30 20 20 10 10 2011 18993 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20 -30 -30 -40 -40 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 Real Residential Fixed Investment Housing Starts and New Home Sales Compounded annual rates of change Millions, annual rate 30 0.9 20 Millions, annual rate 0.45 New Home Sales (right scale) 0.8 18993 0.40 10 0 0.7 0.35 -10 0.6 0.30 -20 0.5 -30 -40 0.25 Housing Starts (left scale) 0.4 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 17898 0.20 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 15 updated through 06/24/11 National Economic Trends Govt. Consumption and Investment Govt. Current Receipts and Expenditures Billions of 2005 dollars Percent of GDP 2700 39 2400 Total Expenditures 2100 33 Total 1800 1500 Total Receipts 27 State & Local 1200 Fed. Expenditures 900 21 Federal 600 Fed. Receipts 300 15 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Government Budgets Billions of dollars National Income Accounts Unified Budget Calendar Years Fiscal Years State and Local Receipts Expenditures Federal Federal Surplus or Deficit (-) Receipts Expenditures Surplus or Deficit (-) Receipts Outlays Surplus or Deficit (-) 1996 1045.1 1022.1 23.0 1526.4 1674.7 -148.3 1453.1 1560.5 -107.4 1997 1099.5 1063.2 36.3 1656.2 1716.3 -60.1 1579.2 1601.1 -21.9 1998 1164.5 1117.6 46.9 1777.9 1744.3 33.6 1721.7 1652.5 69.3 1999 1240.4 1198.6 41.8 1895.0 1796.2 98.8 1827.5 1701.8 125.6 2000 1322.6 1281.3 41.3 2057.1 1871.9 185.2 2025.2 1789.0 236.2 2001 1374.0 1389.9 -15.9 2020.3 1979.8 40.5 1991.1 1862.8 128.2 2002 1412.7 1466.8 -54.1 1859.3 2112.1 -252.8 1853.1 2010.9 -157.8 2003 1496.3 1535.1 -38.8 1885.1 2261.5 -376.4 1782.3 2159.9 -377.6 2004 1601.0 1609.3 -8.3 2013.9 2393.4 -379.5 1880.1 2292.8 -412.7 2005 1730.4 1704.5 25.9 2290.1 2573.1 -283.0 2153.6 2472.0 -318.3 2006 1829.7 1778.6 51.1 2524.5 2728.3 -203.8 2406.9 2655.1 -248.2 2007 1923.1 1910.8 12.3 2654.7 2900.0 -245.3 2568.0 2728.7 -160.7 2008 1967.2 2014.6 -47.4 2503.1 3119.3 -616.2 2524.0 2982.5 -458.6 2009 2005.8 2025.9 -20.1 2205.8 3457.5 -1252 2105.0 3517.7 -1413 2010 2128.1 2095.2 32.9 2385.2 3718.7 -1334 2162.7 3456.2 -1293 2009Q2 1986.6 2020.2 -33.6 2191.2 3527.9 -1337 598.8 903.7 -304.9 2009Q3 2017.2 2036.4 -19.2 2176.3 3532.9 -1357 515.9 845.3 -329.4 2009Q4 2054.4 2040.6 13.8 2231.7 3542.0 -1310 487.8 875.8 -388.1 2010Q1 2095.7 2067.2 28.5 2322.8 3637.1 -1314 466.1 795.0 -328.9 2010Q2 2108.1 2092.4 15.7 2364.7 3701.2 -1337 643.1 930.1 -287.0 2010Q3 2142.7 2095.0 47.7 2417.3 3760.7 -1343 564.8 854.9 -290.2 2010Q4 2165.9 2126.3 39.6 2436.1 3775.8 -1340 531.8 900.8 -369.0 2011Q1 2174.1 2157.0 17.1 2469.6 3761.4 -1292 488.1 948.6 -460.5 Research Division 16 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 06/24/11 National Economic Trends Federal Debt Federal Surplus (+) / Deficit (-) Percent of GDP Percent of GDP 100 4 90 2 0 80 Total 70 -2 60 NIPA -4 Unified Budget -6 50 40 -8 Held by Public 30 -10 20 -12 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 NIPA: Net government saving. Change in Federal Debt Federal Surplus (+) / Deficit (-), Unified Basis Percent of GDP Billions of dollars, fiscal years 16 1000 12 500 8 0 Total Total 4 Excl. interest payments -500 0 -1000 Held by Public -1500 -4 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 Federal Government Debt Billions of dollars, end of month or fiscal year Excludes Agency-issued debt Total Public Debt Held by Agencies and Trusts Held by Public Federal Total Reserve Banks Held by Private Investors Foreign and Total International 2008 10024.7 4210.5 5814.2 476.6 5332.0 2802.4 2009 11909.8 4355.3 7554.5 769.2 6782.7 3570.6 2010 13561.6 4534.0 9027.6 811.7 8211.1 4324.1 2008 2009 2010 2011 March 9437.6 4103.6 5334.0 591.2 4742.9 2506.3 June 9492.0 4207.0 5285.0 478.8 4806.2 2587.4 September 10024.7 4210.5 5814.2 476.6 5332.0 2802.4 December 10699.8 4327.2 6372.7 475.9 5893.4 3077.2 March 11126.9 4290.6 6836.3 492.3 6341.7 3265.7 June 11545.3 4368.8 7176.5 656.5 6518.5 3460.8 September 11909.8 4355.3 7554.5 769.2 6782.7 3570.6 December 12311.4 4497.0 7814.4 776.6 7034.4 3685.1 March 12773.1 4478.9 8294.3 776.7 7513.3 3877.8 June 13201.8 4562.6 8639.2 777.0 7856.7 4069.9 September 13561.6 4534.0 9027.6 811.7 8211.1 4324.1 December 14025.2 4629.8 9395.4 1021.5 8368.9 4379.9 March 14270.1 4613.6 9656.6 1340.5 8311.1 4475.0 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 17 updated through 07/01/11 National Economic Trends Current Account, Trade and Investment Income Balances Billions of dollars, quarterly rate Percent of GDP 8 60 40 6 Investment Income(left scale) 20 4 0 2 -20 0 -40 -2 Current Account (right scale) -60 -80 -4 -6 -100 -8 Goods and Services (left scale) -120 -140 -10 -12 -160 -14 -180 -16 -200 -18 -220 -20 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 Exchange Rates 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 Yen/US$ 100 x (Ecu or Euro/US$) Index, March 1973 = 100 160 375 140 300 120 225 Major Currency Index (left scale) Yen (right scale) 100 150 Euro Ecu (right scale) (right scale) 80 75 60 0 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 Goods Export Shares, 2010 UK 3.76% 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 Goods Import Shares, 2010 Mexico 11.88% Mexico 12.69% China 18.86% UK 2.57% China 7.13% All Other 30.19% Japan 6.23% Japan 4.69% Germany 3.74% Germany 4.26% All Other 27.67% France 2.09% Other OECD 16.39% Canada 14.35% Canada 19.33% France 1.98% Other OECD 12.19% Research Division 18 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 06/16/11 National Economic Trends Trade Balance Goods Trade Billions of dollars Percent change from year ago 0 40 30 Goods and Services -12 20 -24 10 -36 0 -10 -48 Exports -20 Goods -60 -30 Imports -40 -72 17898 2009 2010 18263 18628 2011 18993 17898 2009 Current Account Balance Services Trade Billions of dollars Percent change from year ago 0 30 -30 20 -60 10 -90 0 2010 18263 18628 2011 18993 Exports Imports -120 -10 -150 -20 17898 2009 2010 18263 18628 2011 18993 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 Real GDP Growth of Major Trading Partners Compounded annual rates of change United Kingdom Germany 8 12 4 6 0 0 -4 -6 -8 -12 -18 -12 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 09 2009 10 Canada 2010 11 2011 12 11 2011 12 11 2011 12 France 9 6 3 0 -3 -6 -9 9 6 3 0 -3 -6 -9 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 09 2009 10 Japan 2010 Mexico 16 8 0 -8 -16 -24 -32 16 8 0 -8 -16 -24 -32 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 09 2009 10 2010 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 19 updated through 06/15/11 National Economic Trends Output per Hour and Capacity Utilization, Manufacturing Percent change from year ago Percent 90 18 Utilization Rate (level) (right scale) 12 80 6 70 Output/Hour (left scale) 0 60 -6 50 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 *Data from 1987 to the present are on a NAICS basis; data prior to 1987 are on an SIC basis and are not strictly comparable (see End Note). 11 12 Nonfarm Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago 15 10 Nominal 5 Real 0 -5 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 Output per Hour, Nonfarm Business and Nonfinancial Corporations Percent change from year ago 9 6 Nonfinancial Corporations 3 Nonfarm Business Sector 0 -3 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 Research Division 20 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 06/24/11 National Economic Trends Nonfarm Output per Hour Manufacturing Output per Hour Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 10 15 8 12 6 9 4 6 2 3 0 0 -2 -3 -6 -4 2009 17898 2010 18263 2011 18628 18993 2009 17898 2010 18263 2011 18628 18993 Selected Component Shares of National Income Percent Percent 15 75 13 73 Corporate Profits (left scale) 11 71 9 69 Proprietors' Income (left scale) 7 67 5 65 Compensation (right scale) 3 63 61 1 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 Corporate Profits Percent of GDP 14 12 Profits (Before Tax) 10 8 6 Profits (After Tax) 4 2 0 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 21 updated through 06/23/11 National Economic Trends June 2011 FOMC Projections Change in Real GDP (Q4/Q4) Percent 6 Actual 3 0 -3 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Long Run 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Long Run 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Long Run 2013 Long Run Unemployment Rate (Q4) Percent 11 9 7 Actual 5 3 2005 2006 2007 Change in PCE Price Index (Q4/Q4) Percent 4 3 Actual 2 1 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 Change in PCE Price Index Excluding Food and Energy Prices (Q4/Q4) Percent 4 3 Actual 2 1 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Research Division 22 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 06/23/11 National Economic Trends FOMC Quarterly Projections for 2011 and 2012: A Timeline Change in Real GDP for 2011 Change in Real GDP for 2012 Percent Percent 6.0 6.0 4.5 4.5 3.0 3.0 Oct. 2009 June 2011 1.5 Oct. 2008 2008 June 2011 1.5 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 Unemployment Rate for 2011 (Q4) Unemployment Rate for 2012 (Q4) Percent Percent 10 2011 10 June 2011 8 8 June 2011 6 6 Oct. 2009 Oct. 2008 4 4 2008 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 Change in PCE Price Index for 2011 Change in PCE Price Index for 2012 Percent Percent 4 June 2011 4 3 3 2 2 1 2011 1 Oct. 2008 June 2011 Oct. 2009 0 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011 Change in PCE Core Price Index for 2011 Change in PCE Core Price Index for 2012 Percent Percent 3 3 June 2011 June 2011 2 Oct. 2008 2 1 1 0 0 Oct. 2009 2008 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 23 updated through 06/24/11 National Economic Trends Nominal GDP Billions of $ Real GDP Percent change Annual Year rate ago 4.9 Billions of 2005 $ 13228.853 Final Sales Percent change Annual Year rate ago . 1.9 Billions of 2005 $ 13200.021 Percent change Annual Year rate ago . 2.2 Change in Private Inventories Billions of 2005 $ Last qtr Year/Year ago 2007. 14061.8 . . 27.725 2008. 14369.1 . 2.2 13228.848 . -0.0 13268.069 . 0.5 . -37.628 2009. 14119.0 . -1.7 12880.611 . -2.6 12992.795 . -2.1 . -113.124 2010. 14660.4 . 3.8 13248.215 . 2.9 13176.694 . 1.4 . 62.651 2008 1 14328.4 1.0 3.9 13339.175 -0.7 1.9 13346.167 -0.2 2.1 -8.231 21.337 . 2 14471.8 4.1 3.3 13359.046 0.6 1.2 13382.406 1.1 1.8 -20.570 4.977 . 3 14484.9 0.4 2.3 13223.507 -4.0 -0.3 13249.638 -3.9 0.1 -27.390 -10.894 . 4 14191.2 -7.9 -0.7 12993.665 -6.8 -2.8 13094.063 -4.6 -1.9 -94.321 -37.628 2009 1 14049.7 -3.9 -1.9 12832.619 -4.9 -3.8 12964.162 -3.9 -2.9 -125.799 -67.020 . 2 14034.5 -0.4 -3.0 12810.012 -0.7 -4.1 12971.411 0.2 -3.1 -161.784 -102.324 . 3 14114.7 2.3 -2.6 12860.800 1.6 -2.7 12984.468 0.4 -2.0 -128.213 -127.529 . 4 14277.3 4.7 0.6 13019.012 5.0 0.2 13051.139 2.1 -0.3 -36.701 -113.124 2010 1 14446.4 4.8 2.8 13138.832 3.7 2.4 13085.459 1.1 0.9 44.131 -70.642 . 2 14578.7 3.7 3.9 13194.862 1.7 3.0 13114.741 0.9 1.1 68.847 -12.984 . 3 14745.1 4.6 4.5 13278.515 2.6 3.2 13145.330 0.9 1.2 121.412 49.422 . 4 14871.4 3.5 4.2 13380.651 3.1 2.8 13361.246 6.7 2.4 16.215 62.651 2011 1 15018.1 4.0 4.0 13444.301 1.9 2.3 13381.294 0.6 2.3 55.739 65.553 Consumption Billions of 2005 $ Durables Consumption Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2005 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago Private Fixed Investment Billions of 2005 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago Nonresidential Fixed Investment Billions of 2005 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago 2007. 9289.471 . 2.4 1198.550 . 4.2 2132.666 . -1.8 1552.020 . 6.7 2008. 9265.013 . -0.3 1136.430 . -5.2 1996.966 . -6.4 1556.598 . 0.3 2009. 9153.892 . -1.2 1094.557 . -3.7 1630.657 . -18.3 1290.786 . -17.1 2010. 9313.638 . 1.7 1178.299 . 7.7 1694.738 . 3.9 1364.932 . 5.7 2008 1 9324.067 -0.8 1.0 1178.646 -10.8 -0.2 2081.564 -6.2 -2.2 1603.661 2.0 7.0 . 2 9326.226 0.1 0.6 1169.997 -2.9 -2.0 2057.336 -4.6 -4.2 1597.027 -1.6 3.8 . 3 9243.479 -3.5 -0.7 1133.162 -12.0 -6.0 1993.318 -11.9 -6.9 1561.530 -8.6 -0.8 . 4 9166.282 -3.3 -1.9 1063.913 -22.3 -12.3 1855.646 -24.9 -12.3 1464.174 -22.7 -8.3 2009 1 9154.133 -0.5 -1.8 1076.587 4.9 -8.7 1663.435 -35.4 -20.1 1313.651 -35.2 -18.1 . 2 9116.975 -1.6 -2.2 1068.226 -3.1 -8.7 1619.634 -10.1 -21.3 1288.291 -7.5 -19.3 . 3 9161.603 2.0 -0.9 1118.302 20.1 -1.3 1622.421 0.7 -18.6 1282.875 -1.7 -17.8 . 4 9182.858 0.9 0.2 1115.113 -1.1 4.8 1617.136 -1.3 -12.9 1278.327 -1.4 -12.7 -0.8 2010 1 9225.371 1.9 0.8 1138.938 8.8 5.8 1630.454 3.3 -2.0 1302.552 7.8 . 2 9275.656 2.2 1.7 1157.837 6.8 8.4 1702.463 18.9 5.1 1355.305 17.2 5.2 . 3 9330.628 2.4 1.8 1179.258 7.6 5.5 1708.784 1.5 5.3 1387.998 10.0 8.2 . 4 9422.897 4.0 2.6 1237.162 21.1 10.9 1737.253 6.8 7.4 1413.873 7.7 10.6 2011 1 9473.322 2.2 2.7 1264.895 9.3 11.1 1742.780 1.3 6.9 1421.013 2.0 9.1 Research Division 24 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 06/24/11 National Economic Trends GDP Chain Price Index Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago Employment Cost Index Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago ECI: Wages Index ECI: Benefits Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago 105.2 . 3.1 105.5 . 3.4 104.6 . 2.4 2.2 108.2 . 2.9 108.6 . 3.0 107.2 . 2.5 0.9 109.8 . 1.4 110.3 . 1.6 108.5 . 1.2 . 1.0 111.9 . 1.9 112.1 . 1.6 111.3 . 2.6 107.454 1.9 2.0 107.2 2.7 3.2 107.6 3.4 3.2 106.4 1.9 3.2 108.295 3.2 2.0 108.0 3.0 3.1 108.4 3.0 3.1 106.9 1.9 2.6 3 109.488 4.5 2.6 108.6 2.2 2.8 109.0 2.2 2.9 107.5 2.3 2.4 4 109.154 -1.2 2.1 109.1 1.9 2.4 109.5 1.8 2.6 107.9 1.5 1.9 2009 1 109.465 1.1 1.9 109.3 0.7 2.0 109.8 1.1 2.0 108.0 0.4 1.5 . 2 109.555 0.3 1.2 109.5 0.7 1.4 110.1 1.1 1.6 108.3 1.1 1.3 . 3 109.759 0.7 0.2 109.9 1.5 1.2 110.5 1.5 1.4 108.6 1.1 1.0 . 4 109.693 -0.2 0.5 110.4 1.8 1.2 110.9 1.5 1.3 109.0 1.5 1.0 2010 1 109.959 1.0 0.5 111.1 2.6 1.6 111.4 1.8 1.5 110.3 4.9 2.1 . 2 110.485 1.9 0.8 111.6 1.8 1.9 111.9 1.8 1.6 110.9 2.2 2.4 . 3 111.060 2.1 1.2 112.1 1.8 2.0 112.3 1.4 1.6 111.6 2.5 2.8 . 4 111.166 0.4 1.3 112.7 2.2 2.1 112.8 1.8 1.7 112.2 2.2 2.9 2011 1 111.728 2.0 1.6 113.3 2.1 2.0 113.2 1.4 1.6 113.5 4.7 2.9 2007. 106.301 . 2.9 2008. 108.598 . 2009. 109.618 . 2010. 110.668 2008 1 . 2 . . Exports Billions of 2005 $ Nonfarm Output per Hour Imports Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2005 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago Nonfarm Compensation per Hour Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago 2007. 1554.404 . 9.3 2209.290 . 2.7 102.515 . 1.6 107.922 . 4.0 2008. 1647.699 . 6.0 2151.749 . -2.6 103.555 . 1.0 111.443 . 3.3 2009. 1490.742 . -9.5 1853.766 . -13.8 107.355 . 3.7 113.711 . 2.0 2010. 1665.549 . 11.7 2088.048 . 12.6 111.522 . 3.9 116.246 . 2.2 2008 1 1644.695 5.7 9.9 2174.606 -1.4 -0.8 103.522 -1.3 2.2 110.944 4.8 3.8 . 2 1696.610 13.2 11.5 2190.400 2.9 -1.2 103.870 1.4 1.9 110.937 -0.0 3.5 . 3 1674.951 -5.0 6.1 2189.780 -0.1 -2.4 103.405 -1.8 0.5 111.789 3.1 3.6 . 4 1574.541 -21.9 -2.9 2052.211 -22.9 -6.0 103.430 0.1 -0.4 112.146 1.3 2.3 2009 1 1451.598 -27.8 -11.7 1840.835 -35.3 -15.3 104.401 3.8 0.8 111.213 -3.3 0.2 . 2 1447.840 -1.0 -14.7 1789.850 -10.6 -18.3 106.660 8.9 2.7 113.814 9.7 2.6 . 3 1490.030 12.2 -11.0 1880.823 21.9 -14.1 108.353 6.5 4.8 114.633 2.9 2.5 . 4 1573.500 24.4 -0.1 1903.558 4.9 -7.2 110.114 6.7 6.5 115.274 2.3 2.8 2010 1 1616.422 11.4 11.4 1954.800 11.2 6.2 111.359 4.6 6.7 115.224 -0.2 3.6 . 2 1652.095 9.1 14.1 2101.053 33.5 17.4 110.884 -1.7 4.0 116.104 3.1 2.0 . 3 1679.335 6.8 12.7 2184.296 16.8 16.1 111.522 2.3 2.9 116.813 2.5 1.9 . 4 1714.344 8.6 9.0 2112.044 -12.6 11.0 112.320 2.9 2.0 116.831 0.1 1.4 2011 1 1746.150 7.6 8.0 2138.625 5.1 9.4 112.819 1.8 1.3 117.559 2.5 2.0 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 25 updated through 06/03/11 National Economic Trends Household Survey Employment Thousands Change Percent change Annual Year rate ago Nonfarm Payroll Employment Nonfarm Aggregate Hours Percent change Annual Year rate ago Percent change Monthly Annual Year rate rate ago Thousands Change Index 2006 . 144418 2708 . 1.9 136092 2397 . 1.8 105.8 . . 2.9 2007 . 146049 1631 . 1.1 137587 1496 . 1.1 107.3 . . 1.4 2008 . 145369 -680 . -0.5 136778 -809 . -0.6 105.9 . . -1.2 2009 . 139886 -5483 . -3.8 130789 -5989 . -4.4 98.7 . . -6.8 2010 . 139069 -818 . -0.6 129822 -967 . -0.7 98.8 . . 0.1 -6.1 2009 1 141570 -2487 -6.7 -3.2 132814 -2249 -6.5 -3.7 100.8 -2.6 -10.0 . 2 140330 -1240 -3.5 -3.8 130956 -1857 -5.5 -4.7 98.6 -2.2 -8.7 -7.8 . 3 139331 -999 -2.8 -4.1 129960 -996 -3.0 -4.9 97.8 -0.8 -3.1 -7.6 . 4 138314 -1017 -2.9 -4.0 129425 -535 -1.6 -4.2 97.5 -0.3 -1.2 -5.8 2010 1 138720 406 1.2 -2.0 129322 -103 -0.3 -2.6 97.9 0.4 1.5 -2.9 . 2 139276 555 1.6 -0.8 129956 635 2.0 -0.8 98.6 0.8 3.2 0.1 . 3 139212 -64 -0.2 -0.1 129883 -73 -0.2 -0.1 99.1 0.5 1.9 1.3 . 4 139066 -146 -0.4 0.5 130128 245 0.8 0.5 99.5 0.4 1.6 2.1 2011 1 139587 520 1.5 0.6 130549 422 1.3 0.9 100.0 0.5 2.2 2.2 2009 May 140292 -428 -3.6 -3.9 130995 -386 -3.5 -4.7 98.7 -0.3 -3.6 -7.6 . Jun 139978 -314 -2.7 -3.9 130493 -502 -4.5 -4.9 98.0 -0.7 -8.2 -8.1 -7.5 . Jul 139794 -184 -1.6 -3.9 130193 -300 -2.7 -5.0 98.1 0.1 1.2 . Aug 139409 -385 -3.3 -4.0 129962 -231 -2.1 -5.0 97.9 -0.2 -2.4 -7.7 . Sep 138791 -618 -5.2 -4.3 129726 -236 -2.2 -4.8 97.4 -0.5 -6.0 -7.6 . Oct 138393 -398 -3.4 -4.4 129505 -221 -2.0 -4.6 97.2 -0.2 -2.4 -7.1 . Nov 138590 197 1.7 -3.8 129450 -55 -0.5 -4.1 97.7 0.5 6.4 -5.6 . Dec 137960 -630 -5.3 -3.7 129320 -130 -1.2 -3.8 97.6 -0.1 -1.2 -4.8 2010 Jan 138511 551 4.9 -2.6 129281 -39 -0.4 -3.2 97.9 0.3 3.8 -3.7 . Feb 138698 187 1.6 -2.1 129246 -35 -0.3 -2.7 97.6 -0.3 -3.6 -3.5 . Mar 138952 254 2.2 -1.3 129438 192 1.8 -2.0 98.1 0.5 6.3 -1.6 . Apr 139382 430 3.8 -1.0 129715 277 2.6 -1.3 98.6 0.5 6.3 -0.4 . May 139353 -29 -0.2 -0.7 130173 458 4.3 -0.6 98.6 0.0 0.0 -0.1 . Jun 139092 -261 -2.2 -0.6 129981 -192 -1.8 -0.4 98.7 0.1 1.2 0.7 . Jul 138991 -101 -0.9 -0.6 129932 -49 -0.5 -0.2 99.0 0.3 3.7 0.9 . Aug 139267 276 2.4 -0.1 129873 -59 -0.5 -0.1 99.1 0.1 1.2 1.2 . Sep 139378 111 1.0 0.4 129844 -29 -0.3 0.1 99.2 0.1 1.2 1.8 . Oct 139084 -294 -2.5 0.5 130015 171 1.6 0.4 99.4 0.2 2.4 2.3 . Nov 138909 -175 -1.5 0.2 130108 93 0.9 0.5 99.5 0.1 1.2 1.8 . Dec 139206 297 2.6 0.9 130260 152 1.4 0.7 99.6 0.1 1.2 2.0 2011 Jan 139323 117 1.0 0.6 130328 68 0.6 0.8 99.4 -0.2 -2.4 1.5 . Feb 139573 250 2.2 0.6 130563 235 2.2 1.0 100.2 0.8 10.1 2.7 . Mar 139864 291 2.5 0.7 130757 194 1.8 1.0 100.5 0.3 3.7 2.4 . Apr 139674 -190 -1.6 0.2 130989 232 2.2 1.0 100.7 0.2 2.4 2.1 . May 139779 105 0.9 0.3 131043 54 0.5 0.7 100.8 0.1 1.2 2.2 Research Division 26 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 07/01/11 National Economic Trends Retail and Food Services Sales Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago Industrial Production Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago Treasury Yields Unempl. Rate Billions of dollars 2006 . 4.6 4310.458 . . 5.4 97.4062 . . 2.2 4.73 4.79 2007 . 4.6 4454.439 . . 3.3 100.0000 . . 2.7 4.35 4.63 Index (Percent) 3-mo 10-yr 2008 . 5.8 4401.327 . . -1.2 96.2907 . . -3.7 1.37 3.67 2009 . 9.3 4093.193 . . -7.0 85.5452 . . -11.2 0.15 3.26 2010 . 9.6 4353.678 . . 6.4 90.0658 . . 5.3 0.14 3.21 2009 1 8.2 1009.353 -2.0 -7.8 -10.1 86.6582 -5.1 -18.9 -13.5 0.21 2.74 . 2 9.3 1010.378 0.1 0.4 -10.6 84.0560 -3.0 -11.5 -14.6 0.17 3.31 . 3 9.7 1031.826 2.1 8.8 -7.7 85.1501 1.3 5.3 -10.6 0.16 3.52 . 4 10.0 1041.636 1.0 3.9 1.1 86.3166 1.4 5.6 -5.5 0.06 3.46 2010 1 9.7 1063.065 2.1 8.5 5.3 88.0179 2.0 8.1 1.6 0.11 3.72 . 2 9.6 1079.446 1.5 6.3 6.8 89.5349 1.7 7.1 6.5 0.15 3.49 . 3 9.6 1089.281 0.9 3.7 5.6 91.0081 1.6 6.7 6.9 0.16 2.79 . 4 9.6 1121.886 3.0 12.5 7.7 91.7023 0.8 3.1 6.2 0.14 2.86 2011 1 8.9 1150.261 2.5 10.5 8.2 92.6407 1.0 4.2 5.3 0.13 3.46 . 2 . . . . . . . . . 0.05 3.21 Jun 9.5 340.803 1.4 17.6 -9.8 83.5261 -0.4 -4.8 -14.8 0.18 3.72 2009 . Jul 9.5 341.025 0.1 0.8 -9.2 84.4347 1.1 13.9 -13.6 0.18 3.56 . Aug 9.7 349.245 2.4 33.1 -6.6 85.2174 0.9 11.7 -11.3 0.17 3.59 . Sep 9.8 341.556 -2.2 -23.4 -7.2 85.7983 0.7 8.5 -6.8 0.12 3.40 . Oct 10.1 343.807 0.7 8.2 -2.8 86.0163 0.3 3.1 -7.4 0.07 3.39 . Nov 9.9 348.049 1.2 15.9 1.6 86.2137 0.2 2.8 -6.0 0.05 3.40 . Dec 9.9 349.780 0.5 6.1 4.8 86.7197 0.6 7.3 -2.9 0.05 3.59 2010 Jan 9.7 351.079 0.4 4.5 3.6 87.7492 1.2 15.2 0.3 0.06 3.73 . Feb 9.7 352.109 0.3 3.6 4.2 87.9129 0.2 2.3 1.1 0.11 3.69 359.877 2.2 29.9 8.2 88.3915 0.5 6.7 3.3 0.15 3.73 . Mar 9.7 . Apr 9.8 361.735 0.5 6.4 8.5 88.7051 0.4 4.3 4.6 0.16 3.85 . May 9.6 359.345 -0.7 -7.6 6.9 89.9025 1.3 17.5 7.2 0.16 3.42 . Jun 9.5 358.366 -0.3 -3.2 5.2 89.9970 0.1 1.3 7.7 0.12 3.20 . Jul 9.5 359.532 0.3 4.0 5.4 90.7919 0.9 11.1 7.5 0.16 3.01 . Aug 9.6 363.025 1.0 12.3 3.9 90.9898 0.2 2.6 6.8 0.16 2.70 . Sep 9.6 366.724 1.0 12.9 7.4 91.2427 0.3 3.4 6.3 0.15 2.65 . Oct 9.7 371.404 1.3 16.4 8.0 91.1385 -0.1 -1.4 6.0 0.13 2.54 . Nov 9.8 374.159 0.7 9.3 7.5 91.4039 0.3 3.6 6.0 0.14 2.76 . Dec 9.4 376.323 0.6 7.2 7.6 92.5646 1.3 16.3 6.7 0.14 3.29 2011 Jan 9.0 379.257 0.8 9.8 8.0 92.6545 0.1 1.2 5.6 0.15 3.39 . Feb 8.9 384.044 1.3 16.2 9.1 92.3543 -0.3 -3.8 5.1 0.13 3.58 . Mar 8.8 386.960 0.8 9.5 7.5 92.9133 0.6 7.5 5.1 0.10 3.41 . Apr 9.0 388.049 0.3 3.4 7.3 92.8852 -0.0 -0.4 4.7 0.06 3.46 . May 9.1 387.117 -0.2 -2.8 7.7 92.9815 0.1 1.3 3.4 0.04 3.17 . Jun . . . . . . . . . 0.04 3.00 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 27 updated through 06/15/11 National Economic Trends Consumer Price Index Consumer Price Index less Food and Energy Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago Index Year to date Index Producer Price Index Finished Goods Year to date Index Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago 2006 . 201.558 . . 3.2 . 205.917 . . 2.5 . 160.4 . . 2.9 2007 . 207.337 . . 2.9 . 210.728 . . 2.3 . 166.6 . . 3.9 2008 . 215.251 . . 3.8 . 215.567 . . 2.3 . 177.2 . . 6.4 2009 . 214.548 . . -0.3 . 219.237 . . 1.7 . 172.7 . . -2.5 2010 . 218.079 . . 1.6 . 221.337 . . 1.0 . 179.9 . . 4.2 2009 1 212.451 -0.6 -2.4 -0.2 -2.4 217.710 0.4 1.6 1.7 1.6 170.3 -1.6 -6.4 -2.1 . 2 213.468 0.5 1.9 -1.0 -0.3 218.916 0.6 2.2 1.8 1.9 171.6 0.8 3.2 -4.1 . 3 215.419 0.9 3.7 -1.6 1.0 219.691 0.4 1.4 1.5 1.7 173.1 0.9 3.5 -5.2 . 4 216.853 0.7 2.7 1.5 1.5 220.629 0.4 1.7 1.7 1.7 175.7 1.5 6.1 1.5 2010 1 217.544 0.3 1.3 2.4 1.3 220.603 -0.0 -0.0 1.3 -0.0 178.9 1.8 7.4 5.1 . 2 217.270 -0.1 -0.5 1.8 0.4 221.053 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.4 179.0 0.1 0.3 4.3 . 3 218.039 0.4 1.4 1.2 0.7 221.671 0.3 1.1 0.9 0.6 179.5 0.3 1.1 3.7 . 4 219.465 0.7 2.6 1.2 1.2 222.021 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 182.3 1.6 6.5 3.8 2011 1 222.274 1.3 5.2 2.2 5.2 222.982 0.4 1.7 1.1 1.7 187.9 3.1 12.9 5.1 2009 May 213.078 0.1 1.6 -1.0 2.0 218.906 0.1 1.6 1.8 2.3 170.6 0.1 1.4 -4.6 . Jun 214.527 0.7 8.5 -1.2 3.1 219.228 0.1 1.8 1.7 2.2 173.9 1.9 25.8 -4.3 . Jul 214.782 0.1 1.4 -2.0 2.8 219.427 0.1 1.1 1.5 2.0 171.7 -1.3 -14.2 -6.6 . Aug 215.519 0.3 4.2 -1.5 3.0 219.625 0.1 1.1 1.4 1.9 174.1 1.4 18.1 -4.3 . Sep 215.956 0.2 2.5 -1.3 2.9 220.020 0.2 2.2 1.5 1.9 173.5 -0.3 -4.1 -4.8 . Oct 216.445 0.2 2.8 -0.2 2.9 220.489 0.2 2.6 1.7 2.0 173.9 0.2 2.8 -2.0 . Nov 216.956 0.2 2.9 1.9 2.9 220.616 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.9 176.3 1.4 17.9 2.3 . Dec 217.158 0.1 1.1 2.8 2.8 220.783 0.1 0.9 1.8 1.8 176.9 0.3 4.2 4.4 2010 Jan 217.458 0.1 1.7 2.6 1.7 220.494 -0.1 -1.6 1.5 -1.6 178.9 1.1 14.4 4.7 1.1 220.619 0.1 0.7 1.3 -0.4 178.2 -0.4 -4.6 4.4 . Feb 217.562 0.0 0.6 2.2 . Mar 217.611 0.0 0.3 2.4 0.8 220.695 0.0 0.4 1.2 -0.2 179.5 0.7 9.1 6.0 . Apr 217.625 0.0 0.1 2.3 0.6 220.786 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.0 179.4 -0.1 -0.7 5.3 . May 217.320 -0.1 -1.7 2.0 0.2 221.041 0.1 1.4 1.0 0.3 179.1 -0.2 -2.0 5.0 . Jun 216.865 -0.2 -2.5 1.1 -0.3 221.331 0.1 1.6 1.0 0.5 178.5 -0.3 -3.9 2.6 . Jul 217.621 0.3 4.3 1.3 0.4 221.557 0.1 1.2 1.0 0.6 178.6 0.1 0.7 4.0 . Aug 218.068 0.2 2.5 1.2 0.6 221.691 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.6 179.7 0.6 7.6 3.2 . Sep 218.427 0.2 2.0 1.1 0.8 221.765 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.6 180.2 0.3 3.4 3.9 . Oct 218.970 0.2 3.0 1.2 1.0 221.795 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 181.2 0.6 6.9 4.2 . Nov 219.240 0.1 1.5 1.1 1.0 222.059 0.1 1.4 0.7 0.6 182.1 0.5 6.1 3.3 . Dec 220.186 0.4 5.3 1.4 1.4 222.210 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.6 183.7 0.9 11.1 3.8 2011 Jan 221.062 0.4 4.9 1.7 4.9 222.587 0.2 2.1 0.9 2.1 185.5 1.0 12.4 3.7 . Feb 222.270 0.5 6.8 2.2 5.8 223.029 0.2 2.4 1.1 2.2 188.5 1.6 21.2 5.8 . Mar 223.490 0.5 6.8 2.7 6.1 223.331 0.1 1.6 1.2 2.0 189.8 0.7 8.6 5.7 . Apr 224.433 0.4 5.2 3.1 5.9 223.745 0.2 2.2 1.3 2.1 191.3 0.8 9.9 6.6 . May 224.804 0.2 2.0 3.4 5.1 224.387 0.3 3.5 1.5 2.4 191.7 0.2 2.5 7.0 Research Division 28 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis National Economic Trends Notes Pages 4, 5: Final Sales is gross domestic product (GDP) minus change in private inventories. Advance, Second, and Third GDP Growth Rates are released during the first, second, and third months of the following quarter. Changes result from incorporation of more complete information. Real GDP is measured in 2005 dollars. The ISM (formerly Purchasing Managers’) Index is a weighted average of diffusion indexes for new orders, production, supplier deliveries, inventories, and employment. Aggregate and Average Weekly Hours are paid hours of production and nonsupervisory employees. The Inventory-Sales Ratio uses nominal (current-dollar) inventory and sales data. Page 6: For information on how to calculate the Contribution of a component to the overall GDP growth rate, see the October 1999 issue of the Survey of Current Business, p. 16. The sign is changed for Imports. Page 7: Ten-year Treasury Yields are adjusted to constant maturity; threemonth yields are secondary market averages. All rates used in the yield curves are adjusted to constant maturity. Standard and Poor’s 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends shows the total return: capital gains plus dividends. Pages 8, 9: Oil (West Texas intermediate) and Natural Gas (Henry Hub) spot and futures prices are listed in the Wall Street Journal. Spot prices are monthly averages of daily prices; futures prices are usually taken from the last trading day of the month. Consumer Price Index is for all urban consumers. The Consumption Chain Price Index is the index associated with the personal consumption expenditures component of GDP. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) covers private nonfarm employers. ECI Compensation refers to a fixed sample of jobs, while Compensation per Hour covers all workers in the nonfarm business sector in a given quarter. In both cases, compensation is wages and salaries plus benefits. Pages 10, 11: Effective with the January 2008 Employment Situation, the establishment survey data for employment, hours, and earnings have been converted from the 2002 NAICS system to the 2007 NAICS system. For more information see http://www.bls.gov/ces/. Nonfarm Payroll Employment is counted in a survey of about 400,000 establishments (Current Employment Statistics). It excludes self-employed individuals and workers in private households, but double-counts individuals with more than one job. The Household Survey (Current Population Survey) of about 60,000 households provides estimates of civilian employment, unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and employment-population ratio. Population is civilian, noninstitutional, 16 years and over. The 90 percent confidence intervals for the unemployment rate (± 0.2 percentage points) and change in household survey employment (± 430,000) measure uncertainty due to sample size. Because the household survey was changed in January 1994, data prior to this date are not strictly comparable. The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced several revisions to the Household Survey on Feb. 7, 2003, with the release of the January 2003 data. For more information, see <www.bls.gov/cps/>. The Job Openings rate is the number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a percent of total employment plus job openings. Page 13: The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index shows changes in a summary measure of consumers’ answers to five questions about their current and expected financial situation, expectations about future economic conditions, and attitudes about making large purchases. The survey is based on a representative sample of U.S. households. investment and include consumption of government capital, while unified budget outlays do the reverse; (3) NIPA accounts exclude Puerto Rico and U.S. territories; and (4) various timing issues are handled differently. Outlays and Receipts are from the NIPAs, except as noted. Since 1977, the federal Fiscal Year starts on October 1. Excluded agency debt was 0.6 percent of federal debt at the end of fiscal 1997. Federal Debt Held by the Public includes holdings of the Federal Reserve System and excludes holdings of the social security and other federal trust funds. Federal grants in aid to state and local governments appear in both state and local receipts and federal outlays. Pages 18, 19: The Trade Balance (shown on a balance of payments basis) is the difference between exports and imports of goods (merchandise) and services. It is nearly identical in concept to the Net Exports component of GDP, but differs slightly in accounting details. The Investment Income Balance equals income received from U.S.-owned assets in other countries minus income paid on foreign-owned assets in the U.S. The investment income balance is nearly identical in concept to the difference between gross national product and gross domestic product, but differs in accounting details. The Current Account Balance is the trade balance plus the balance on investment income plus net unilateral transfers to the U.S. from other countries. Pages 20, 21: Output per Hour (Y/H), Unit Labor Cost (C/Y), and Compensation per Hour (C/H) are indexes which approximately obey the following relationship: %(Y/H) + %(C/Y) = %(C/H) with %() meaning percent changes. Unit labor cost is shown on page 9. Real Compensation per Hour uses the CPI to adjust for the effects of inflation. Nonfarm business accounted for about 77 percent of the value of GDP in 2000, while nonfinancial corporations accounted for about 54 percent. Inventory Valuation Adjustments (IVA) remove the effect of changes in the value of existing inventories from corporate profits and proprietors’ income. (This change in value does not correspond to current production and therefore is not part of GDP). Capital Consumption Adjustments (CCAdj) increase profits and proprietors’ income by the difference between estimates of economic depreciation and depreciation allowed by the tax code. Components of national income not shown are rental income of persons and net interest. Pages 22, 23: The economic projections of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are published four times a year. Except for the unemployment rate, the projections for the current and following years are on a Q4/Q4 horizon. The shaded area represents the range of the economic projections of the FOMC members, and the dot signifies the mid-point of the ranges. The projections of the changes in the total PCE price index and the core PCE price index (excluding food and energy prices) are presumed to converge over time. Sources Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Dept. of Commerce National income and product accounts, international trade and investment data (except by country), auto and light truck sales. Census Bureau, U.S. Dept. of Commerce Inventory-sales ratios, retail sales, capital goods orders, housing starts, exports and imports by country. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Dept. of Labor All employment-related data, employment cost index, consumer and producer price indexes, unit labor cost, output per hour, compensation per hour, multifactor productivity. Page 15: Gross Private Saving is the sum of personal saving, undistributed corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj (see notes for pp. 18-19), and private wage accruals less disbursements. Gross Government Saving is net government saving (surplus/deficit) plus consumption of fixed capital. Balance on Current Account (NIPA) is net capital transfer payments to the rest of the world plus net lending or net borrowing (international trade and income flows). United States Department of Treasury Unified budget receipts, outlays, deficit, debt. Pages 16, 17: Government Consumption and Investment is current expenditures on goods and services, including capital consumption (depreciation) and gross investment, as reported in the NIPAs. The Unified Federal Budget Surplus/Deficit differs from NIPA Basis in four main ways: (1) NIPA excludes transactions involving existing assets; (2) NIPA outlays exclude government The Survey Research Center, The University of Michigan Consumer sentiment index. Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Federal Reserve Board Index of industrial production, treasury yields, exchange rates, capacity utilization, household debt. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) GDP for major trading partners (not available on FRED). 29
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