Full text of National Economic Trends : July 2000

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July 2000

NationalEconomicTrends

prisingly slow growth and low inflation, then the
points will lie in the lower left-hand sector. This suggests the need for a looser policy. If the points lie in
the other, shaded, quadrants where one forecast error
is positive and the other is negative, there is no clear
indication for policy action.
Since the beginning of 1994, GDP growth forecast
errors (measured on the vertical axis) have tended to
be positive, mainly lying above the horizontal axis.
Generally, the inflation errors have been negative,
with the points lying to the left of the vertical axis.
In the majority of these cases, then, the forecast
errors have been in the shaded area where growth
is surprisingly high and inflation is surprisingly low.
Therefore, since 1994, the signals about what, if anything, should be done with monetary policy have
often been mixed. In fact, since 1994, the first quarter of 2000 was the only instance in which forecast
errors for both inflation and GDP growth were positive. Therefore, we should not be surprised that the
Fed would see the need to tighten monetary policy.

Mixed Signals?

—William T. Gavin
—Rachel J. Mandal

Forecast Errors (1994:Q1 to 2000:Q1)
3.5
Output Forecast Error

There are times when the Fed’s policy actions are relatively easy to predict, and other times when it is far more
difficult. A neutral policy stance is a situation where the
federal funds rate target is consistent with expectations
that inflation will be on target and output will return to
its long-run potential. Starting from such a neutral position, policymakers monitor incoming information to see
whether adjustments are needed in the policy stance.
Because forecasts reflect information available at the time
forecasts are made, forecast errors reflect new information that arrives after the policy stance is chosen.
The figure below shows forecast errors for inflation
and real GDP growth. The forecast errors are constructed by subtracting the latest Blue Chip consensus
forecast from the relevant quarter’s advance report on
actual GDP growth for the year-to-date. These advance
data, the first estimates published by the Bureau of
Economic Analysis, contain most of the information
about GDP and are hardest to forecast. Therefore,
when advance data for the second quarter are released
in July, the available GDP growth estimate for the calendar year includes the final estimate for the first quarter and the advance estimate for the second quarter. A
positive forecast error in July indicates—at that point
in time— the available GDP growth estimate is above
the Blue Chip forecast for the year.
In the case of real GDP growth, if the forecast errors
are positive, by implication, GDP may be growing above
the path that was expected to take it back to its potential.
Because there is no explicit policy objective for inflation,
positive forecast errors for inflation suggest that inflation
is above the path that it was expected to take in order to
reach the objective at the time policy was set.
If both forecast errors are positive—that is, if inflation and growth are both unexpectedly high—then the
points will lie in the upper right-hand region of the
figure, indicating the need for a tighter policy. If
both forecast errors are negative, which indicates sur-

3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0

(2000: Q1)

0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.5
-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

Inflation Forecast Error

Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System

0.5

1.0

TableofContents
Page
3

Economy at a glance

4

Output and growth

7

Interest rates

8

Inflation and prices

10

Labor markets

12

Consumer spending

14

Investment spending

16

Government revenues, spending, and debt

18

International trade

20

Productivity and profits

22

Quick reference tables

27

Notes and sources

Conventions used in this publication:
1. Shaded areas indicate recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
2. Percent change refers to simple percent changes. Percent change from year ago refers to the percent change from
the same month or quarter in the previous year. The percent change at annual rate shows what the growth rate
would be over an entire year if the same simple percent change continued for four quarters or twelve months. The
percent change at annual rate of X between the previous quarter t –1 and the current quarter t is:

100 x

[ ( XXt –1t )

4

–1

]

For monthly data replace 4 with 12.
3. All data with significant seasonal patterns are seasonally adjusted, unless labeled NSA.

National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. For more information on data, please call (314) 444-8573.
Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing to the Public Affairs Office, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442
or by calling (314) 444-8808 or (314) 444-8809. Information in this publication is also included on the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board at
(314) 621-1824 or Internet World Wide Web server at http://www.stls.frb.org/fred.

NationalEconomicTrends

Real GDP Growth

07/05/00

Consumer Price Index

Industrial Production

Interest Rates

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

Unemployment Rate

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

07/05/00

Real Gross Domestic Product

Industrial Production and Purchasing Managers’ (NAPM) Indexes

Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours

Real Change in Private Inventories

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

07/05/00

Real Final Sales and GDP

Real GDP Revisions

Industrial Production and NAPM Index

Nominal Gross Domestic Product

Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours

Average Weekly Private Nonfarm Hours

Real Change in Private Inventories

Inventory-Sales Ratio

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

07/05/00

Contribution of Components to Real GDP Growth

Contributions to Real GDP Growth Rate
1998
2nd

3rd

4th

1999
1st

2nd

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

3rd

4th

2000
1st

NationalEconomicTrends

07/05/00

Interest Rates

Treasury Yield Curve

Standard and Poor’s 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

07/05/00

NIPA Chain Price Indexes

Consumer Price Index

Producer Price Index, Finished Goods

Employment Cost Index and Compensation per Hour

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

NIPA Chain Price Indexes

07/05/00

Crude Oil Price

Consumer Price Index

Consumption Chain Price Index

Producer Price Index, Finished Goods

Unit Labor Cost

Employment Cost Index

Compensation per Hour

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

07/05/00

Employment

Unemployment, Labor Force Participation and Employment Rates

Duration of Unemployment

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

07/05/00

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls

Change in Household Employment

Labor Force and Population

Available Labor Supply and Components

Unemployment Rate and Help-Wanted Advertising Index

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

07/05/00

Real Disposable Personal Income

Real Consumption

Retail Sales

Household Debt Outstanding

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

Real Disposable Personal Income

07/05/00

Personal Saving Rate

Real Consumption

Real Consumption

Retail Sales

Real Durables Consumption and Vehicle Sales

Consumer Sentiment (U. of Michigan)

Real Durables Consumption

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

07/05/00

Real Investment

Real Private Fixed Investment

Real Nonresidential Fixed and Equipment & Software Investment

Real Residential Fixed Investment

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

07/05/00

Gross Saving Rates and Net Foreign Investment

Real Private Fixed Investment

Nondefense Capital Goods Orders

Real Equipment & Software Investment

Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment

Real Residential Fixed Investment

Housing Starts

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

07/05/00

Govt. Consumption and Investment

Government Receipts and Outlays

Government Budgets
Unified Budget

National Income Accounts
State and Local
Receipts

Expenditures

Federal
Surplus or
Deficit(-)

Receipts

Expenditures

Federal
Surplus or
Deficit(-)

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Receipts

Outlays

Surplus or
Deficit(-)

NationalEconomicTrends

07/05/00

Federal Debt

Federal Deficit

Change in Federal Debt

Federal Deficit, Unified Basis

Federal Government Debt
Total
Public Debt

Held by
Agencies
and Trusts

Total

Federal
Reserve Banks

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Total

Foreign and
International

NationalEconomicTrends

07/05/00

Trade and Investment Income Balances

Exchange Rates

Goods Export Shares, 1999

Goods Import Shares, 1999
Mexico
10.7%

Mexico
12.70%

All Other
24.8%

All Other
22.87%
Canada
19.3%

Canada
24.34%

Other OECD
17.49%
Japan
8.40%

Germany UK FranceChina
3.92% 5.61% 2.76% 1.92%

Other OECD
12.9%
Japan
12.7%

Germany UK France
5.4% 3.8% 2.5%

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

China
7.9%

NationalEconomicTrends

07/05/00

Trade Balance

Goods Trade

Current Account Balance

Services Trade

Real GDP Growth of Major Trading Partners
United Kingdom

Germany

Canada

France

Japan

Mexico

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

07/05/00

Output per Hour and Capacity Utilization, Manufacturing

Nonfarm Compensation per Hour

Output per Hour, Nonfarm Business and Nonfarm, Nonfinancial Corporations

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

07/05/00

Nonfarm Output per Hour

Manufacturing Output per Hour

Selected Component Shares of National Income

Corporate Profits after Tax (with IVA and CCAdj)

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomic Trends

O7~5X~O

Nominal GDP
Billions
of $
1996
1997
1998
1999
1997

1
2

7813.2
8300.8
8759.9
9256.1

Final Sales

Real GDP

Percent change
Annual Year
rate
ago

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Billions
of 1996 $

5.6
6.2
5.5
5.7

7813.170
8144.839
8495.650
8848.220

Billions
of 1996 $

3.6
4.2
4.3
4.2

7783.176
8075.512
8420.774
8800.515

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Changein
Private Inventories
Billions of 1996 $
Last qtr Year,Year ago

3.6
3.8
4.3
4.5

29.994
69.122
74.290
42.205

8125.9
8259.5
8364.5
8453.0

7.4
6.7
5.2
4.3

6.5
6.1
6.4
5.9

8018.735
8115.383
8192.187
8253.208

4.5
4.9
3.8
3.0

4.5
4.0
4.5
4.1

7966.392
8022.664
8132.641
8180.274

3.5
2.9
5.6
2.4

3.9
3.2
4.4
3.6

51.465
93.108
59.187
72.729

41.465
57.175
59.161
69.122

8610.6
8683.7
8797.9
8947.6

7.7
3.4
5.4
7.0

6.0
5.1
5.2
5.9

8391.110
8436.348
8515.730
8639.491

6.9
2.2
3.8
5.9

4.6
4.0
3.9
4.7

8285.502
8389.485
8439.376
8568.654

5.2
5.1
2.4
6.3

4.0
4.6
3.8
4.7

107.278
43.107
76.114
70.658

83.076
70.575
74.807
74.289

4

9072.7
9146.2
9297.8
9507.9

5.7
3.3
6.8
9.3

5.4
5.3
5.7
6.3

8717.623
8758.251
8879.824
9037.181

3.7
1.9
5.7
7.3

3.9
3.8
4.3
4.6

8665.010
8737.471
8834.994
8964.584

4.6
3.4
4.5
6.0

4.6
4.1
4.7
4.6

50.134
14.001
37.969
66.716

60.003
52.727
43.191
42.205

2000 1

9707.0

8.6

7.0

9158.207

5.5

5.1

9120.092

7.1

5.3

28.007

36.673

3
4
1998

1
2

3
4
1999

1
2
3

Consump~on

Durables Consumpion

Percent change
Billions
of 1996 $
1996
1997
1998
1999
1997 1
2

Annual
rate

5237.499
5417.250
5681.848
5983.581

Private Axed Investment

Billions
of 1996 $

Percent chance
Annual Year
rate
ago

3.2
3.4
4.9
5.3

616.475
657.372
731.503
815.704

Year
ago

NonresidentialFixed Investment

Billions
of 1996 $

Percent chanQe
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Billions
of 1996 $

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

5.6
6.6
11.3
11.5

1212.696
1316.018
1471.849
1590.484

9.3
8.5
11.8
8.1

899.433
995.717
1122.465
1215.764

10.0
10.7
12.7
8.3

4

5349.162
5369.327
5453.127
5497.279

4.4
1.5
6.4
3.3

3.4
2.7
3.8
3.9

642.077
639.673
669.745
677.981

10.9
—1.5
20.2
5.0

6.7
3.1
8.4
8.4

1274.143
1300.641
1337.931
1351.344

7.9
8.6
12.0
4.1

9.3
8.1
8.6
8.1

957.923
980.832
1017.978
1026.127

9.6
9.9
16.0
3.2

11.2
10.8
11.3
9.6

1998 1
2
3
4

5575.108
5658.803
5714.216
5779.318

5.8
6.1
4.0
4.6

4.2
5.4
4.8
5.1

704.908
723.883
731.232
766.001

16.9
11.2
4.1
20.4

9.8
13.2
9.2
13.0

1424.202
1466.695
1473.996
1522.491

23.4
12.5
2.0
13.8

11.8
12.8
10.2
12.7

1088.575
1120.181
1120.316
1160.799

26.7
12.1
0.0
15.3

13.6
14.2
10.1
13.1

1999 1
2
4

5871.289
5944.457
6015.687
6102.891

6.5
5.1
4.9
5.9

5.3
5.0
5.3
5.6

788.780
806.084
821.225
846.728

12.4
9.1
7.7
13.0

11.9
11.4
12.3
10.5

1555.853
1580.980
1607.319
1617.785

9.1
6.6
6.8
2.6

9.2
7.8
9.0
6,3

1182.664
1202.875
1234.274
1243.241

7,8
7.0
10.9
2.9

8.6
7.4
10.2
7.1

2000 1

6217.802

7.7

5.9

894.080

24.3

13.3

1688.655

18.7

8.5

1311.256

23.7

10.9

3

3

Federal Reserve ankof St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends
GDP Chain Price Index
Index
1996
1997

1998
1999
1997 1
2
3

Employment Cost Index

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

100.000
101.910
103.110
104.550

07/05/00

ECI: Benefits

ECI: ~Nages

Index

Percent chance
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Index

Percent chanae
Annual
Year
rate
ago

index

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

1.9
1.9
1.2
1.4

129.3
133.3
138.0
142.4

2.8
3.1
3.5
3.2

126.0
130.4
135.7
140.2

3.3
3.5
4.0
3.4

137.4
140.2
143.6
147.6

1.8
2.0
2.5
2.8

101.330
101.770
102.110
102.440

2.8
1.7
1.3
1.3

1.9
2.0
1.9
1.8

131.6
132.7
133.7
135.1

3.1
3.4
3.0
4.3

2.9
2.9
3.0
3.4

128.5
129.7
131.0
132.4

3.5
3.8
4.1
4.3

3.3
3.3
3.6
3.9

138.9
139.7
140.4
141.6

1.2
2.3
2.0
3.5

2.0
2.0
2.0
2.2

102.680
102.960
103.300
103.510

0.9
1.1
1.3
0.8

1.3
1.2
1.2
1.0

136.2
137.3
138.8
139.7

3.3
3.3
4.4
2.6

3.5
3.5
3.8
3.4

133.7
134.9
136.5
137.5

4.0
3.6
4.8
3.0

4.0
4.0
4.2
3.9

142.2
143.2
144,1
144.9

1.7
2.8
2.5
2.2

2.4
2.5
2.6
2.3

4

104.030
104.370
104.650
105.160

2.0
1.3
1.1
2.0

1.3
1.4
1.3
1.6

140.3
141.8
143.1
144.5

1.7
4.3
3.7
4.0

3.0
3.3
3.1
3.4

138.1
139.7
140.9
142.2

1.8
4.7
3.5
3.7

3.3
3.6
3.2
3.4

145.4
146.8
148.2
149.9

1.4
3.9
3.9
4.7

2.3
2.5
2.8
3.5

2000 1

105.950

3.0

1.8

146.6

5.9

4.5

143.9

4.9

4.2

153.4

9.7

5.5

4

1998 1
2

3
4
1999 1

2
3

Impods

Expo~s
Billions
of 1996 $

1996
1997
1998
1999
1997 1
2
3
4

1998 1
2
3

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

874.163
983.075
1004.579
1042.345

Nonfarm Output per Hour

Billions
of 1996 $

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

8.2
12.5
2.2
3.8

963.128
1095.221
1222.152
1365.390

Nonfarm Compensation/Hr

index

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Index

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

8.6
13.7
11.6
11.7

105.4
107.1
110.1
113.5

2.6
1.6
2.8
3.1

109.8
113.8
119.8
125.4

3.1
3.6
5.3
4,7

942.103
977.594
1004.186
1008.399

8.3
15.9
11.3
1.7

11.3
13.7
15.8
9.2

1034.679
1080.813
1125.502
1139.901

15.5
19.1
17.6
5.2

12.3
13.7
14.5
14.2

106.0
106.8
107.7
108.0

0.0
3.1
3.4
1.1

1.4
1.1
2.1
1.9

112.1
112.9
114.1
115.9

3.3
2.9
4.3
6.5

3,4
3.2
3.4
4.2

1004.492
994.518

6.6
1.7
—1.4
2.0

1178.984
1215.554
1230,974
1263.085

14.4
13.0
5.2
10.8

13.9
12.5
9.4
10.8

109.2
109.5
110.4
111.5

4.5
1.1
3.3
4.0

3.0
2.5
2.5
3.2

117.3
118.9
120.7
122.1

4.9
5.6
6.2
4.7

4.6
5.3
5.8
5.3

12.5
14.4
14.9
8.7

10.3
10.7
13.2
12.6

112.2
112.4
113.7
115.6

2.5
0.7
4.7
6.9

2.7
2.6
3.0
3.7

123.3
124.8
126.2
127.4

4.0
5.0
4.6
3.9

5.1
5.0
4.6
4.3

11.7

12.4

11 6.3

2.4

3.7

128.7

4.1

4.4

4

1028.671

—1.5
—3.9
—1.6
16.3

1999 1

1014.300

—5.5

1.0

2
3

1024.292

4.0

3.0

4

1052.623
1078.166

11.5
10.1

6.3
4.8

1300.887
1345.384
1392.982
1422.309

2000 1

1094.592

6.2

7.9

1462.067

990.628

Federal Reserve E ink of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

07/05100

Nontarm Payroll Employment

Household Survey Employment

Nonfarm Aggregate Hours

Thousands

Change

Percent ~
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Index

Percent chance
Monthly Annual
Year
rate
rate
ago

124908
126715
129565
131463
133492

1837
1807
2850
1898
2030

1.5
1.4
2.2
1.5
1.5

117188
119597

3053
2409

2.7
2.1
2.6
2.6
2.3

133.4
136.6
141.4
145.2
148.3

2.7
2.4
3.5
2.7
2.1

122677
125845
128772

3080
3168
2926

130861
131256
131526
132208

413
394
270
682

1.3
1.2
0.8
2.1

1.8
1.5
1.2
1.3

124748
125486
126180
126967

793
737
695
787

2.6
2.4
2.2
2.5

2.7
2.6
2.6
2.4

144.2
144.7
145.5
146.4

0.8
0.4
0.5
0.7

3.1
1.5
2.0
2.7

3.3
2.6
2.5
2.3

133077

869

2.7

1.7

127800

833

2.6

2.4

147.1

0.5

1.9

2.0

3
4

133214
133526
134153

137
312
626

0.4
0.9
1.9

1.5
1.5
1.5

128430
129073
129783

630
644
710

2.0
2.0
2.2

2.3
2.3
2.2

147.8
148.5
149.6

0.5
0.5
0.7

1.9
1.8
2.9

2.1
2.1
2.1

1

135247

1095

3.3

1.6

130626

843

2.6

2.2

150.7

0.8

3.2

2.4

1998May
Jun

131278

23

131234

—44

0.2

1.5

—0.4

1.4

125531
125748

353
217

3.4
2.1

2.6
2.6

145.1
144.9

0.6
—0.1

7.8
—1.6

2.8
2.8

Jul
Aug
Sep

131274
131381

40
107

0.4
1.0

1.1
1.1

125847
126225

99
378

0.9
3.7

2.5
2.7

541

5.1

1.5

126469

244

2.3

2.5

145.2
145.6
145.6

0.2
0.3
0.0

2.5
3.4
0.0

2.5
2.7
2.2

131922

Oct
Nov
Dec

131950
132156

28
206

0.3
1.9

1.4
1.2

126677
126939

208
262

2.0
2.5

2.4
2.4

132517

361

3.3

1.4

127286

347

3.3

2.4

146.2
146.3
146.8

0.4
0.1
0.3

5.1
0.8
4.2

2.4
2.2
2.4

1999 Jan
Feb
Mar

133225
133029
132976

708
—196
—53

6.6
—1.8
—0.5

1.8
1.6
1.6

127463
127883
128054

177
420
171

1.7
4.0
1.6

2.3
2.5
2.5

146.8
147.5
147.1

0.0
0.5
—0.3

0.0
5.9
—3.2

1.7
2.3
2.1

Apr
May
Jun

133054
133190
133398

78
136
208

0.7
1.2
1.9

1.4
1.5
1.6

128282
128377
128630

228
95
253

2.2
0.9
2.4

2.5
2.3
2.3

147.7
147.6
148.2

0.4
—0.1
0.4

5.0
—0,8
5.0

2.4
1.7
2.3

Jul
Aug

133399
133530

1
131

0.0
1.2

1.6
1.6

128898
129057

268
159

2.5
1.5

2.4
2.2

148.5
148.4

0.2
—0.1

2.5
—0.8

2.3
1.9

Sep

133650

120

1.1

1.3

129265

208

2.0

2.2

148.6

0.1

1.6

2.1

1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

1998

1
2
3
4

1999

2000

1
2

Thousands Change

Percent chance
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Oct

133940

290

2.6

1.5

129523

258

2.4

2.2

149.3

0.5

5.8

2.1

Nov
Dec

134098
134420

158
322

1.4
2.9

1.5
1.4

129788
130038

265
250

2.5
2.3

2.2
2.2

149.6
149.8

0.2
0.1

2.4
1.6

2.3
2.0

2000 Jan
Feb
Mar

135221
135362
135159

801
141
—203

7.4
1.3
—1.8

1.5
1.8
1.6

130387
130482
131009

349
95
527

3.3
0.9
5.0

2.3
2.0
2.3

150.6
150.6
151.0

0.5
0.0
0.3

6.6
0.0
3.2

2.6
2.1
2.7

Apr
May

135706
134715

547
—991

5.0
—8.4

2.0
1.1

131423
131654

414
231

3.9
2.1

2.4
2.6

151.6
150.7

0.4
—0.6

4.9
—6.9

2.6
2.1

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

07/05/00

Retail Sales

Industrial Production

Percent chance
Monthly! Annual
Year
quarterly rate
ago

Percent chance
Monthly! Annual
Year
quarterly rate
ago

Unempl~
Rate

Billions
of dollars

1995
1996
1997

5.6
5.4
4.9

2361.343
2496.503
2612.931

5.1
5.7
4.7

114.418
119.445
126.953

1998

4.5

2745.714

5.1

1999

4.2

2993.153

9.0

1

~.7

668.657

0.9

3.8

3.4

130.897

0.6

2

4.4
4.5
4.4

684.020
686.919
706.118

2.3
0.4
2.8

9.5
1.7
11.7

6.1
4.2
6.6

131.856
132.811
133.895

0.7
0.7
0.8

4.3

723.050

2.4

9.9

8.1

134.569

4.3

739.433

2.3

9.4

8.1

136.109

4

4.2
4.1

756.594
774.076

2.3
2.3

9.6
9.6

10.1
9.6

1

4.1

799.014

3.2

13.5

1998 Jun

4.5

230.046

1.0

Jul
Aug

4.5
4.5
4.5

228.231
228.078
230.610

4.5
4.4
4.4

Feb
Mar

3—mo

10—yr

4.9
4.4
6.3

5.49
5.01
5.06

6.58
6.44
6.35

132.365

4.3

4.78

5.26

136.980

3.5

4.64

5.64

2.4

5.7

5.05

5.59

3.0
2.9
3.3

4.8
3.8
2.9

4.98
4.82
4.26

5.60
5.20
4.67

0.5

2.0

2.8

4.41

4.98

1.1

4.7

3.2

4.45

5.54

137.721
139.521

1.2
1.3

4.8
5.3

3.7
4.2

4.65
5.04

5.88
6.14

10.5

141.777

1.6

6.6

5.4

5.52
5.71

6.48
6.18

12.5

6.4

131.481

—0.7

—8.3

3.9

4.98

5.50

—0.8
—0.1
1.1

—9.1
—0.8
14.2

4.3
3.6
4.7

131.291
133.593
133.548

—0.1
1.8
—0.0

—1.7
23.2
—0.4

3.2
4.4
3.7

4.96
4.90
4.61

5.46
5.34
4.81

233.751
235.251
237.116

1.4
0.6
0.8

17.6
8.0
9.9

6.3
6.5
6.9

134.108
133.777
133.801

0.4
—0.2
0.0

5.1
—2.9
0.2

3.5
2.8
2.5

3.96
4.42
4.39

4.53
4.83
4.64

4.3
4.4
4.2

239.154
241.580
242.316

0.9
1.0
0.3

10.8
12.9
3.7

7.7
8.5
8.2

134.052
134.509
135.147

0.2
0.3
0.5

2.3
4.2
5.8

2.4
2.9
3.1

4.34
4.44
4.44

4.72
5.00
5.23

Apr
May
Jun

4.3
4.2
4.3

244.556
247.572
247.305

0.9
1.2
—0.1

11.7
15.8
—1.3

8.1
8.7
7.5

135.472
136.215
136.639

0.2
0.5
0.3

2.9
6.8
3.8

2.9
2.9
3.9

4.29
4.50
4.57

5.18
5.54
5.90

Jul
Aug

Sep

4.3
4.2
4.2

249.816
253.030
253.748

1.0
1.3
0.3

12.9
16.6
3.5

9.5
10.9
10.0

137.363
137.736
138.064

0.5
0.3
0.2

6.5
3.3
2.9

4.6
3.1
3.4

4.55
4.72
4.68

5.79
5.94
5.92

Oct
Nov
Dec

4.1
4.1
4.1

254.959
257.489
261.628

0.5
1.0
1.6

5.9
12.6
21.1

9.1
9.5
10.3

139.056
139.433
140.075

0.7
0.3
0.5

9.0
3.3
5.7

3.7
4.2
4.7

4.86
5.07
5.20

6.11
6.03
6.28

2000 Jan
Feb
Mar

4.0
4.1
4.1

263.493
267.164
268.357

0.7
1.4
0.4

8.9
18.1
5.5

10.2
10.6
10.7

141.117
141.635
142.578

0.7
0.4
0.7

9.3
4.5
8.3

5.3
5.3
5.5

5.32
5.55
5.69

6.66
6.52
6.26

Apr
May
Jun

3.9
4.1

266.806
265.977

—0.6
—0.3

—6.7
—3.7

9.1
7.4

143.616
144.159

0.7
0.4

9.1
4.6

6.0
5.8

5.66
5.79
5.69

5.99
6.44
6.10

1998

3
4

1999

1
2
3

2000

Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec

1999 Jan

Index

Treasury
Yields

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

07/05/00

Consumer Price Index
less Food and Energy

Consumer Price Index
Percent change
Monthly! Annual
Year

Index

1998

quarterly

rate

ago

Percent change
Monthly! Annual
Year

Year

to date

Index

quarterly

rate

ago

Producer Price Index
Finished Goods
Year

to date

Index

Percent chance
Monthly! Annual
Year
quarterly rate
ago

1995

152.5

2.8

161.4

3.0

127.9

1.9

1996
1997

157.0
160.6

2.9
2.3

165.8
169.7

2.7
2.4

131.3
131.8

2.6
0.4

1998

163.1

1.6

173.7

2.3

130.7

—0.9

1999

166.7

2.2

177.3

2.1

133.0

1.8

1

162.1

0.2

1.0

1.5

1.0

172.2

0.7

2.7

2.3

2.7

130.6

—0.8

—3.0

—1.6

2

162.8
163.5
164.2

0.4
0.4
0.4

1.7
1.7
1.7

1.6
1.6
1.5

1.3
1.5
1.5

173.2
174.2
175.1

0.6
0.5
0.5

2.5
2.2

2.2
2.4

2.6
2.5

130.5
130.6

—0.0
0.1

—0.1
0.2

—0.7
—0.6

2.1

2.4

2.4

131.0

0.3

1.1

—0.5

0.4
0.8
0.6
0.7

1.7
3.3
2.5
2.9

1.7
2.1
2.3

1.7
2.5
2.5

1.9
2.1
1.9
2.3

1.4
2.7
4.0

0.7
1.4
2.3

2.1

2.1

131.4
132.3
133.6
134.7

0.4
0.7
1.0

2.6

0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6

1.9
2.0
2.0

2.6

175.9
176.8
177.7
178.7

2.2
2.1
2.0

4

164.9
166.2
167.2
168.4

0.8

3.4

2.9

1

170.1

1.0

4.0

3.2

4.0

179.7

0.6

2.3

2.1

2.3

136.4

1.2

4.9

3.8

1998 May

162.8

0.2

2.2

1.7

1.5

173.3

0.2

2.8

2.2

2.8

130.5

—0.1

—0.9

—0.7

Jun

163.0

0.1

1.5

1.6

1.5

173.5

0.1

1.4

2.3

2.6

130.5

0.0

0.0

—0.6

Jul
Aug

Sep

163.3
163.5
163.6

0.2
0.1
0.1

2.2
1.5
0.7

1.7
1.7
1.4

1.6
1.6
1.5

173.8
174.2
174.5

0.2
0.2
0.2

2.1
2.8
2.1

2.2
2.5
2.4

2.5
2.6
2.5

130.8
130.4
130.6

0.2
—0.3
0.2

2.8
—3.6
1.9

—0.2
—0.8
—0.9

Oct

163.9

0.2

2.2

1.4

1.6

174.7

0.1

1.4

2.3

2.4

131.0

0.3

3.7

—0.7

Nov

Dec

164.2
154.4

0.2
0.1

2.2
1.5

1.5
1.6

1.6
1.6

175.0
175.5

0.2
0.3

2.1
3.5

2.3
2.5

2.4
2.5

130.8
131.1

—0.2
0.2

—1.8
2.8

—0.6
—0.1

1999 Jan

164.7

0.2

2.2

1.7

2.2

175.8

0.2

2.1

2.3

2.1

131.6

0.4

4.7

0.8

Feb
Mar

164.8
165.1

0.1
0.2

0.7
2.2

1.7
1.8

1.5
1.7

175.8
176.1

0.0
0.2

0.0
2.1

2.1
2.1

1.0
1.4

131.1
131.6

—0.4
0.4

—4.5
4.7

0.5
0.8

Apr
May
Jun

166.2
166.2
166.2

0.7
0.0
0.0

8.3
0.0
0.0

2.3
2.1
2.0

3.3
2.6
2.2

176.7
176.8
177.0

0.3
0.1
0.1

4.2
0.7
1.4

2.2
2.0
2.0

2.1
1.8
1.7

132.2
132.3
132.4

0.5
0.1
0.1

5.6
0.9
0.9

1.2
1.4
1.5

Jul
Aug

166.7
167.2
167.8

0.3
0.3
0.4

3.7
3.7
4.4

2.1
2.3
2.6

2.4
2.6
2.8

177.4
177.5
178.1

0.2
0.1
0.3

2.7
0.7
4.1

2.1
1.9
2.1

1.9
1.7
2.0

132.7
133.5
134.6

0.2
0.6
0.8

2.8
7.5
10.3

1.5
2.4
3.1

168.1
168.4
168.8

0.2
0.2
0.2

2.2
2.2
2.9

2.6
2.6
2.7

2.7
2.7
2.7

178.4

0.2

2.0

2.1

2.0

Nov
Dec

178.7
178.9

0.2
0.1

2.0
1.4

2.1
1.9

2.0
1.9

134.6
134.7
134.9

0.0
0.1
0.1

0.0
0.9
1.8

2.7
3.0
2.9

2000 Jan
Feb
Mar

169.1
170.0
171.2

0.2
0.5
0.7

2.2
6.6
8.8

2.7
3.2
3.7

2.2
4.3
5.8

179.2
179.5
180.3

0.2
0.2
0.4

2.0
2.0
5.5

1.9
2.1
2.4

2.0
2.0
3.2

135.0
136.4
137.7

0.1
1.0
1.0

0.9
13.2
12.1

2.6
4.0
4.6

Apr

171.2
171.3

0.0
0.1

0.0
0.7

3.0
3.1

4.3
3.6

180.6
180.9

0.2
0.2

2.0
2.0

2.2
2.3

2.9
2.7

137.3
137.3

—0.3
0.0

—3.4
0.0

3.9
3.8

3
4

1999

1
2
3

2000

Sep
Oct

May

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Notes
Pages 4, 5: Final sales is gross domestic product (GDP) minus change
in private inventories. Advance, preliminary, and final GDP growth
rates are released during the first, second, and third months of the
following quarter. Changes result from incorporation of more complete
information. Real GDP is measured in 1996 dollars. The Purchasing
Managers’ Index is a weighted average of diffusion indexes for new
orders, production, supplier deliveries, inventories, and employment.
The National Association of Purchasing Management (NAPM) surveys
over 300 firms in 20 manufacturing industries, weighting responses by
industry share of GDP. Aggregate and average weekly hours are
paid hours of production and nonsupervisory employees. The inventory-sales ratio uses nominal (current-dollar) inventory and sales data.
Page 6: Beginning with the October 1999 comprehensive revision to
the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA), a new formula is
used to calculate the contribution of a component to the overall GDP
growth rate. The new formula produces estimates roughly equivalent to
the old formula. For more information, see the October 1999 issue of
the Survey of Current Business, p. 16. The sign is changed for imports.
Page 7: Ten-year Treasury yields are adjusted to constant maturity.
Three-month yields are secondary market averages, but all rates used in
the yield curves are adjusted to constant maturity. Standard and
Poor’s 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends shows the total return:
capital gains plus dividends.
Pages 8,9: Oil prices are monthly averages of daily spot prices for
West Texas intermediate crude (Wall Street Journal). Consumer price
index is for all urban consumers. The consumption chain price index
is the index associated with the personal consumption expenditures
component of GDP. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) covers private nonfarm employers. ECI compensation refers to a fixed sample
of jobs, while compensation per hour covers all workers in the nonfarm business sector in a given quarter. In both cases, compensation is
wages and salaries plus benefits.
Pages 10,11: Nonfarm payroll employment is counted in a survey of
about 390,000 establishments (Current Employment Survey). It excludes self-employed individuals and workers in private households,
but double-counts individuals with more than one job. The household
survey (Current Population Survey) of about 50,000 households provides estimates of civilian employment, unemployment rate, labor force
participation rate, and employment-population ratio. Population is
civilian, noninstitutional, 16 years and over. New population controls
introduced in January 2000 affect levels and growth rates of household
survey employment, labor force and population. The unemployment
rate and other series were minimally affected. 90 percent confidence
intervals for the unemployment rate (± 0.2 percentage points) and
change in household survey employment (± 376,000) measure uncertainty due to sample size. The available labor supply is the sum of the
unemployed and those persons not in the labor force but who want to
work now. The household survey was significantly changed in January
1994, so care should be exercised in making short-term comparisons
around this date, particularly with the duration data shown on page 10.
Pages 13: The Michigan consumer sentiment index shows changes in
a summary measure of consumers’ answers to five questions about their
current and expected financial situation, expectations about future
economic conditions, and attitudes about making large purchases. The
survey is based on a representative sample of U.S. households.
Pages 14, 15: Overall gross saving includes government saving, which
is the sum of the government surplus and capital consumption (see
notes for pages 16 and 17). Net foreign investment (NFI) is U.S.
investment abroad minus foreign investment in the U.S. Aside from a
statistical discrepancy, NFI also equals the difference between gross
domestic investment and saving. The comprehensive revision introduced the equipment & software component of business investment.

Pages 16, 17: Government consumption and investment is current
expenditures on goods and services, including capital consumption
(depreciation) and gross investment, as reported in the NIPAs. The
unified federal budget deficit differs from NIPA basis in four main
ways: (1) NIPA excludes transactions involving existing assets; (2)
NIPA outlays exclude government investment and include consumption
of government capital, while unified budget outlays do the reverse; (3)
NIPA accounts exclude Puerto Rico and U.S. territories; and (4) various timing issues are handled differently. Outlays and receipts are
from the NIPAs, except as noted. Since 1977, the federal fiscal year
starts on October 1. Excluded agency debt was 0.6 percent of federal
debt at the end of fiscal 1997. Federal debt held by the public includes holdings of the Federal Reserve System and excludes holdings
of the social security and other federal trust funds. Federal grants in aid
to state and local governments appear in both state and local receipts
and federal outlays.
Pages 18, 19: The trade balance (shown on a balance of payments
basis) is the difference between exports and imports of goods (merchandise) and services. It is nearly identical in concept to the net exports component of GDP, but differs slightly in accounting details.
The investment income balance equals income received from U.S.owned assets in other countries minus income paid on foreign-owned
assets in the U.S. The investment income balance is nearly identical in
concept to the difference between gross national product and gross
domestic product, but differs in accounting details. The current account balance is the trade balance plus the balance on investment
income plus net unilateral transfers to the U.S. from other countries.
Pages 20, 21: Output per hour (Y/H), unit labor cost (C/Y), and
compensation per hour (C/H) are indexes which approximately obey
the following relationship: %(Y/H) + %(C/Y) = %(C/H) with %()
meaning percent changes. Unit labor cost is shown on page 9. Real
compensation per hour uses the CPI to adjust for the effects of inflation. Nonfarm business accounted for about 76 percent of the value of
GDP in 1996, while nonfinancial corporations accounted for about 54
percent. Inventory valuation adjustments (IVA) remove the effect of
changes in the value of existing inventories from corporate profits and
proprietors’ income. (This change in value does not correspond to
current production and therefore is not part of GDP). Capital consumption adjustments (CCAdj) increase profits and proprietors’
income by the difference between estimates of economic depreciation
and depreciation allowed by the tax code. Components of national
income not shown are rental income of persons and net interest.

Sources
Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Dept. of Commerce
National income and product accounts, international trade and investment data (except by country), auto and light truck sales
Census Bureau, U.S. Dept. of Commerce
Inventory-sales ratios, retail sales, capital goods orders, housing
starts, exports and imports by country
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Dept. of Labor
All employment-related data, employment cost index, consumer and
producer price indexes, unit labor cost, output per hour, compensation per hour, multifactor productivity
United States Department of Treasury
Unified budget receipts, outlays, deficit, debt
Federal Reserve Board
Index of industrial production, treasury yields, exchange rates, capacity utilization, household debt
The Survey Research Center, The University of Michigan
Consumer sentiment index
The Conference Board
Help-wanted advertising index
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
GDP for major trading partners (not available on FRED)