Full text of National Economic Trends : July 1998
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July 1998 Finally Falling: Unemployment Duration The median duration of unemployment measures one facet of the severity of unemployment. The median is the point that splits the distribution of unemployment duration in half. For example, in May 1998, half of all unemployed individuals had been without a job for less than 5.9 weeks and half had been without a job for more than 5.9 weeks. The chart indicates the behavior of the unemploy ment rate and the duration of unemployment over the past 30 years. The unemployment rate exhibits a cycli cal pattern— rising during economic contractions and falling during expansions. The median duration of unemployment has closely followed the path of the unemployment rate throughout most of this period. During the current expansion, however, duration has shown a clear break from this pattern. Although the unemployment rate has been on a downward trend since it peaked at 7.8 percent in June 1992, the median dura tion of unemployment had remained stuck at about eight weeks. Equally striking is the sharp drop in the median duration of unemployment that has occurred since November 1997— falling from 7.8 weeks to 5.9 weeks. Why didn’t the duration of unemployment fall in conjunction with the decline in the unemploy ment rate from m id-1992 through the end of 1997? What accounts for the subsequent drop in duration? The answers to these questions can be found by examining more detailed statistics on the duration of unemployment. The Bureau of Labor Statistics provides data on the number of individuals who have been unemployed for less than five weeks, five to 14 weeks, 15 to 26 weeks, and 27 or more weeks. When the economy is expand ing, it becomes easier to find a job, and when the econ omy is contracting, it takes longer to find a job. Thus, the percentage o f the unemployed who have been without jobs for less than five weeks generally falls dur ing a recession and rises during an expansion, while the percentage of the unemployed who have been out of work for 15 weeks or more follows the opposite pattern. During most of the current expansion, the long term unemployed as a percentage of total unemploy ment showed only a slight downward trend, causing the stickiness in the duration of unemployment. In recent months, the number of long-term unemployed has fallen, leading to the sharp drop in the median duration of unemployment. The decline in the duration of unemployment does not necessarily imply that the long-term unemployed are finding jobs. It is possible that an increasing num ber of these job seekers have become discouraged and have dropped out of the labor force. However, the number of individuals who are not in the labor force because of discouragement over their job prospects has fallen over the past year. Thus, the data provide some support for the notion that the longer-term unemployed are finding jobs. -Patricia S. Pollard Unem ploym ent Indicators Seasonally adjusted monthly data, January 1969 to May 1998 Weeks Percent 14 S i Recession Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System Tabi eofCon ten ts Page 3 Economy at a glance 4 Output and growth 7 Interest rates 8 Inflation and prices 10 Labor markets 12 Consumer spending 14 Investment spending 16 Government revenues, spending, and debt 18 International trade 20 Productivity and profits 22 Quick reference tables 27 Notes and sources Conventions used in this publication: 1. Charts and tables contain data that were current on June 30, 1998. 2. Shaded areas indicate recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. 3. Percent change refers to simple percent changes. Percent change from year ago refers to the percent change from the same month or quarter in the previous year. The percent change at annual rate shows what the growth rate would be over an entire year if the same simple percent change continued for four quarters or twelve months. The percent change at annual rate of X between the previous quarter t-1 and the current quarter t is: 4 100 x - 1 H -1 For monthly data replace 4 with 12. 4. All data with significant seasonal patterns are seasonally adjusted, unless labeled NSA. National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. For more information on data, please call (314) 444-8573. Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing to the Public Affairs Office, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or by calling (314) 444-8808 or (314) 444-8809. Information in this publication is also included on the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board at (314) 621-1824 or Internet World Wide Web server at http://www.stls.frb.org/fred. Nat iona IEconomic Trends Real GDP Growth Consumer Price Index Percent change at annual rate Percent change 0.5 - ................................... _ 1 1 ........................... 1........................... 1........................... 1.................. 1995 1996 1997 1998 Industrial Production Interest Rates Percent change 1.8 - Percent ................................................................................................................................................................................. 1. I I 1 I 8 - ....... l l l l III, III ll l l l l . '1 1 ~ 0-6 1 ........................... 1........................... 1........................... 1.................. 1995 1996 1997 1998 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 4 1.................... 1.....................1.....................1............. 1995 1996 1997 1998 Unemployment Rate Thousands 600 — ■ Percent of labor force 6.0 - 500 — • 1995 1996 1997 1998 4 0 1 ........................... 1........................... 1........................... 1................. 1995 1996 1997 1998 3 tiationaìEconom icTrends Real Gross Domestic Product Percent change from year ago Industrial Production and Purchasing Managers’ (NAPM) Indexes Percent change from year ago 18 - Index — 74 .............................................. Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Percent change from year ago ...« « « ; 12 - Real Change in Business Inventories Percent of GDP 2- . r\ -1 - 73 74 75 76 4 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 1............ r ............1......“ T 88 89 90 .......... I.............T .............I............ T .............I............ T 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 National Econom icitends Real GDP Revisions Real Final Sales and GDP Percent change at annual rate Percent change at annual rate 6" 8 - 1— GDP (bar) Rnal Sales Advance Prelimlnary Annual Revision Y ///7F7A Final 6— 4 — 2— 01996 1997 1998 97:1 97:2 97:3 97:4 98:1 Nominal Gross Domestic Product Industrial Production and NAPM Index Index Percent change 1.8 - .................................... — 68 Percent change at annual rate 10 - ..................................................................................................................... industrial Production 1996 1997 1998 1996 1997 Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Average Weekly Private Nonfarm Hours Percent change 3 - ....................... Hours 35.0 - -2 1998 33.5 T 1996 Real Change In Business Inventories Billions of 1992 dollars 120 - ............................................................... 1996 1997 1998 Inventory-Sales Ratio Manufacturing and trade 1.46 - .................................. 1.31 -[■ 1996 1997 1998 5 NationalEconomicTrends Contribution of Components to Real GDP Growth Percent cha ng e at annual rate 10- - 4 —-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------96Q 2 96Q 3 96Q 4 9701 97Q 2 Consumption Exports Imports Inventories 97Q 3 97Q 4 98Q1 Real GDP Government V//A Investment Contributions to Real GDIP Growth Rate 3rd I | 1st 2nd Real GDP 5 .9 7 1 .0 3 4.3 1 1 4 .8 9 3 .3 1 3 .0 7 3 .7 , Final Sales 5 .2 2 0 .1 6 4 .4 9 ! 3 .0 2 2 .4 8 4 .6 9 2 .2 8 3 .6 4 Change in Inventory 0 .7 8 0 .9 6 -0 .2 9 | 1 .7 6 0 .7 9 -1 .6 7 1 .4 8 1 .7 5 Consumption 2 .5 3 0 .3 5 2 .2 2 | 3 .5 6 0 .6 4 3 .7 8 1 .6 7 4 .0 5 Fixed Investment 2 .0 2 1 .4 6 0 .4 5 || 0 .5 9 1 .8 4 2 .1 3 0 .2 9 2 .6 5 N o nre side ntia l 1 .3 4 1 .7 2 0 .6 6 | 0 .4 7 1 .5 9 2.1 1 - 0 .1 0 R esidential 0 .6 6 -0 .1 8 -0 .1 7 |I 0 .1 3 0 .2 8 0 .1 0 0 .3 4 ” 5F " IT | 1998 1st |I 5 .3 6 2 .0 2 | 0 .6 3 Government 1 .2 9 - 0 .2 0 0 .0 2 | - 0 .0 8 0 .5 4 0 .1 9 0 .0 5 -0 .5 7 Federal 0 .5 8 -0 .2 9 -0 .3 5 | -0 .3 8 0 .41 -0 .0 7 -0 .1 5 | -0 .6 5 State a n d Local 0.71 0 .0 8 0 .3 7 | 0 .3 1 0 .1 3 0 .2 6 0 .2 0 0 .0 8 -0 .6 9 -1 .5 1 1 .9 3 -1 .1 8 -0 .5 8 -1 .5 3 0 .2 7 - 2 .6 8 1 .1 3 0 .2 3 2 .8 9 1 .2 4 2 .2 6 0 .5 9 1 .0 9 i -0 .1 7 -1 .8 1 -1 .7 3 -0 .9 4 -2 .3 9 -2 .8 0 - 2.1 1 -0 .8 1 ! -2 .5 2 -0 .0 3 -0 .0 8 - 0 .1 0 0 .2 0 0 .0 2 0 .1 4 -0 .0 4 ! Net Exports E xports Im ports Residual 6 1997 _ _ 1996 2nd ! 0 .1 7 NationalEconomicTrends interest Rates Percent 18 15 12 Treasury Yield Curve Percent 7.5 7.0 — May 97 6.5 - May 98 Week Ending: 06/26/98 4.5 4.0 - 3m 1y 2y 5y Standard and Poor’s 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends Percent change from year ago 75XSX3B 7y ioy 30y National Economic Trends GDP Chain Price Index Percent change from year ago Consumer Price Index Percent change from year ago 15 m 12 - 0 1 i 73 I 74 I 75 I 76 I 77 I 78 I 79 I 80 " " ì" " " " " ' I 81 82 I 83 Producer Price index, Finished Goods Percent change from year ago Employment Cost Index and Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago 15rnmmm 8 I 84 I 85 86 I I 87 88 I i 89 t 90 I 91 I 92 I 93 I 94 I 95 ! 96 I 97 98 National EconomicTrends GDP Chain Price Index Crude Oil Price Percent change at annual rate 4 - .................................................. Dollars per barrel 28 - ........................ 1997 1996 121 1998 1993 1 1994 1 1995 1 1996 Consumer Price Index Consumption Chain Price Index Percent change 0.5 - .................................... Percent change at annual rate 4 - .......................................................... ' 1997 1 1998 3 - 1996 1997 1998 Unit Labor Cost Producer Price Index, Finished Goods Percent change at annual rate Percent change 0.75 - .................. 6 - .................................................. Excl. Food & Energy Nonfarm Manufacturing -6 1997 1996 1998 1996 T Employment Cost Index Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago 8 - .................................................. 6 - .....-............................................ 1997 f 1998 Percent change at annual rate pensation Benefits 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1996 1997 1998 9 National EconomicTrends Employment Percent change from year ago Unemployment, Labor Force Participation and Employment Rates Percent of labor force Percent of population - ............................ - 70 Labor Force/Population - 64 Duration of Unemployment Percent of labor force Weeks 4.50 16 3.75 14 3.00 12 2.25 10 1.50 8 0.75 6 0.00 4 10 HationalEconomicTrends Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Change in Manufacturing Payrolls Thousands Thousands 60 - ............................................................ 600 —• 500 — 1996 - 1997 1998 _ 6 ° 1 .................................. 1.................................. 1.....-.............. 1996 1997 Change in Household Employment Labor Force and Population Thousands Percent change from year ago 825 - ............................................................ 2.5 - ............................................... 550 1 1 1998 ...................................................... .......................................................r ................................. 1996 Unemployment Rate 1997 1998 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Help-Wanted Advertising Percent Index 6.0 95 ............................................................................................................. - 8.0 - Percent 80 - .......... .............................. " ............. / \ 75 - ........... J V H e lp -wanted • 6.5 ........................................................................................ - 6.0 Unemployment Rate 65 - < =*> . \ a -v - 5.0 60 - ......................................................... -........................... — U ......... - 4.5 55 ~i..........i..........i..........i..........i..........i 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 r 40 11 National EconomicTrends Real Disposable Income Percent change from year ago, quarterly data 12 - ....... ............................................................................. mg................ ill! - 41 73 r 74 }........r........r. 75 76 77 i ....... i........r ~ ... i... I i........t........i........i........i........i........i........ i... " T ...... i........i........i........t........i....... i.........i........i 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 Real Consumption Percent change from year ago Percent change from year ago Retail Sales Percent change from year ago of quarterly average Debt Service as Percent of Disposable Income Percent 12 Percent National EconomicTrends Personal Saving Rate Real Disposable Income Percent change 1.00 - ............. Percent 8 - ........ 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.00 it il illll.ilJ i H ■0.25 -0.50 -0.75 — -1 .0 0 T 1996 1997 1998 2 l 1993 1 1994 Real Consumption Real Consumption Percent change 8 - ............................. 1.6 - 1.2 - f 1997 f 1998 Percent change - 1996 1 1996 f 1995 1997 1998 ....................................................... 0.8 1996 [ 1997 1 1998 Retail Sales Real Durables Consumption and Vehicle Sales Percent change 2- Percent change 12 - .................... Consumer Sentiment (II. of Michigan) Index 120 — ■ Millions of vehicles, annual rate - 16.5 Real Durables Consumption Percent change 20 - .................... ■10 ................................ I.................................j.............— .............. 1 1996 1997 1998 13 NationatEconomicTrends Real Investment Percent of GDP Real Private Fixed Investment Percent change from year ago 24 - .... Real Presidential and Producers Durable Equipment Investment Percent change from year ago Real Residential Investment Percent change from year ago http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 14 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis National EconomicTrends Gross Saving Rates and Net Foreign Investment Percent of GDP .......10 Percent of GDP 24 8 - 6 - 4 .......- 2 - 0 ...... ........ 2 ....r -4 98 Real Private Fixed Investment Nondefense Capital Goods Orders Percent change at annual rate Percent change from year ago, excluding aircraft 18 - ................................................ 30 - .................................................................................... A 10 Equipment Investment - V \y Orders 0 -10 1996 1997 1998 ■20 -r................. T..................T.................. T.................. I.................. I.................. I 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Real Nonresidential Investment Real Equipment Investment Percent change at annual rate Percent change at annual rate 30 - ................................................. 20 - ....................................................... 1996 1997 1998 Real Residential Investment Housing Starts Percent change at annual rate Millions, annual rate 20 - ................................................. 1.7 - ............................. 1996 1997 1996 1.3 -r..................................... j......................................T...................................... I ' 1996 1997 1998 15 National E conom icirends Govt. Consumption and Investment Government Receipts and Outlays Billions of 1992 dollars 1400 Percent of GDP 35 1200 1000 800 25 600 20 400 Government Budgets Billions of dollars National Income Accounts Unified Budget Calendar Years Fiscal Years State and Local Receipts 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Federal Expenditures Surplus or De!icit(-) Receipts Federal Expenditures Surplus or Deficitf-) Receipts Outlays Surplus or Deficit!-) -5 3 .2 2 2 5 .6 1 9 8 .0 2 7 .6 2 9 7 .4 3 7 1 .3 -7 3 .9 2 7 9 .1 3 3 2 .3 2 5 3 .9 2 1 7 .9 3 6 .0 3 4 3 .1 4 0 0 .3 -5 7 .2 2 9 8 .1 3 7 1 .8 -7 3 .7 2 8 1 .9 2 3 7 .1 4 4 .8 3 8 9 .6 4 3 5 .9 -4 6 .3 3 5 5 .6 4 0 9 .2 -5 3 .7 3 0 9 .3 2 5 6 .7 5 2 .6 4 4 6 .5 4 7 8 .1 -3 1 .6 3 9 9 .6 4 5 8 .7 -5 9 .2 3 3 0 .6 2 7 8 .3 5 2 .3 51 1.1 5 2 9 .5 -1 8 .4 4 6 3 .3 5 0 4 .0 -4 0 .7 361 .4 3 0 7 .0 5 4 .4 5 6 1 .5 6 2 2 .5 -6 1 .0 5 17.1 5 9 0 .9 -7 3 .8 3 9 0 .8 3 3 5 .4 5 5 .4 6 4 9 .3 7 0 7 .1 -5 7 .8 5 9 9 .3 6 7 8 .2 -7 9 .0 4 0 9 .0 3 5 7 .7 5 1 .3 6 4 6 .4 7 8 1 .0 -1 3 4 .6 6 1 7 .8 7 4 5 .8 -1 2 8 .0 4 4 3 .6 3 7 8 .8 6 4 .8 6 7 1 .9 8 4 6 .3 -1 7 4 .4 6 0 0 .6 8 0 8 .4 -2 0 7 .8 4 9 2 .0 4 0 5 .1 8 6 .9 7 4 6 .9 9 0 2 .9 -1 5 6 .0 6 6 6 .5 8 5 1 .9 -1 8 5 .4 5 2 8 .7 4 3 7 .8 9 0 .9 81 1.3 9 7 4 .2 -1 6 2 .9 7 3 4 .1 9 4 6 .4 -2 1 2 .3 5 7 0 .6 4 7 5 .7 9 4 .9 8 5 0 .1 1 0 2 7 .6 -1 7 7 .5 7 6 9 .2 9 9 0 .5 - 2 2 1 .2 5 9 4 .9 51 1.1 8 3 .8 9 3 7 .4 1 0 6 6 .3 -1 2 8 .9 8 5 4 .4 1 0 0 4 .1 -1 4 9 .8 6 3 1 .4 5 4 5 .5 8 5 .9 9 9 7 .2 1 1 1 8 .5 -1 2 1 .3 9 0 9 .3 1 0 6 4 .5 -1 5 5 .2 6 8 1 .0 5 8 5 .9 9 5.1 1 0 7 9 .3 1 1 9 2 .7 - 1 1 3 .4 9 9 1 .2 1 1 4 3 .7 -1 5 2 .5 7 2 8 .9 6 4 8 .8 8 0.1 1 1 2 9 .8 1 2 8 4 .5 -1 5 4 .7 1 0 3 2 .0 1 2 5 3 .2 - 2 2 1 .2 7 8 4 .2 7 0 8 .4 7 5 .8 1 1 4 9 .0 1 3 4 5 .0 -1 9 6 .0 1 0 5 5 .0 1 3 2 4 .4 -2 6 9 .4 8 4 4 .3 7 5 8 .0 8 6 .3 1 1 9 8 .5 1 4 7 9 .4 -2 8 0 .9 1 0 9 1 .3 1 3 8 1 .7 -2 9 0 .4 8 9 4 .4 8 0 7 .0 8 7 .4 1 2 7 5 .1 1 5 2 5 .7 -2 5 0 .6 1 1 5 4 .4 1 4 0 9 .4 -2 5 5 .0 9 4 9 .2 8 5 2 .3 9 6 .9 1 3 7 4 .8 1 5 6 1 .4 -1 8 6 .6 1 2 5 8 .6 1 4 6 1 .7 -2 0 3 .1 9 9 9 .0 8 9 5 .9 1 03.1 1 4 6 3 .2 1 6 3 7 .6 -1 7 4 .4 1 3 5 1 .8 1 5 1 5 .7 -1 6 3 .9 1 0 4 3 .4 9 3 8 .0 1 0 5 .4 1 5 8 7 .6 1 6 9 8 .1 - 1 1 0 .5 1 4 5 3 .1 1 5 6 0 .5 -1 0 7 .5 1 0 9 0 .4 9 8 2 .6 1 0 7 .8 1 7 2 3 .4 1 7 5 2 .2 -2 8 .8 1 5 7 9 .3 1 6 0 1 .2 -2 1 .9 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 16 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis National EconomicTrends Federal Debt Federal Deficit Percent of GDP Percent of GDP 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 74 98 76 78 80 82 84 Change in Federal Debt Federal Deficit, Unified Basis Percent of GDP Billions of dollars, fiscal years 500 i i : ..................... m.... ■ ...... 8 - w .................................. m..... mm 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 Total 2 Held by PublicN Excl. Interest payments 1 u 1 1 1 1 1 1 74 76 78 80 82 84 1 86 1 88 1 1 1 I 90 92 94 96 I 98 I I I T T T T T T T 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 Federal Government Debt Billions of dollars, end of month or fiscal year, excluding agency-issued debt 1994 1995 1996 1997 1995 1996 1997 1998 Total Public Debt Held by Agencies and Trusts 4 6 9 2 .8 4 9 7 4 .0 5 2 2 4 .8 5 4 1 3 .1 Held by Public Held by Private Investors Total Federal Reserve Banks Total 1 2 1 3 .1 3 4 7 9 .7 3 5 5 .2 3 1 2 7 .8 6 5 5 .8 1 3 2 0 .8 3 6 5 3 .2 3 7 4 .1 3 2 7 9 .5 8 4 8 .4 1 4 4 7 .0 3 7 7 7 .8 3 9 0 .9 3 3 8 6 .2 1 0 2 6 .1 1 5 9 8 .5 3 8 1 4 .7 4 3 6 .5 3 3 8 8 .9 1 2 6 6 .0 Foreign and International M arch 4 8 6 4 .1 1 2 5 4 .7 3 6 0 9 .5 3 6 9 .3 3 2 3 9 .2 7 2 9 .2 June 4 9 5 1 .4 1 3 1 6 .6 3 6 3 4 .8 3 8 9 .0 3 2 4 5 .0 7 8 4 .2 S e p te m b e r 4 9 7 4 .0 1 3 2 0 .8 3 6 5 3 .2 3 7 4 .1 3 2 7 9 .5 8 4 8 .4 Decem ber 4 9 8 8 .7 1 3 0 4 .5 3 6 8 4 .2 3 9 1 .0 3 2 9 4 .9 8 6 2 .2 M arch 51 1 7 .8 1 3 5 3 .8 3 7 6 4 .0 3 8 1 .0 3 3 8 2 .8 9 3 6 .6 June 5 1 6 1 .1 1 4 2 2 .4 3 7 3 8 .6 3 9 1 .0 3 3 4 7 .3 9 6 0 .3 S e p te m b e r 5 2 2 4 .8 1 4 4 7 .0 3 7 7 7 .8 3 9 0 .9 3 3 8 6 .2 1 0 2 6 .1 Decem ber 5 3 2 3 .2 1 4 9 7 .2 3 8 2 6 .0 4 1 0 .9 341 1 .2 1 1 3 5 .6 M arch 5 3 8 0 .9 1 5 0 6 .8 3 8 7 4 .1 4 0 5 .6 3 4 5 1 .7 1 1 9 2 .5 June 5 3 7 6 .2 1 5 7 1 .6 3 8 0 4 .6 4 2 6 .4 3 3 6 1 .7 1 2 2 1 .9 S e p te m b e r 5 4 1 3 .1 1 5 9 8 .5 3 8 1 4 .7 4 3 6 .5 3 3 8 8 .9 1 2 6 6 .0 Decem ber 5 5 0 2 .4 1 6 5 5 .7 3 8 4 6 .7 4 5 1 .9 3 3 9 3 .4 1 2 7 8 .0 M arch 5 5 4 2 .4 1 6 7 0 .4 3 8 7 2 .0 4 0 0 .0 3 4 3 0 .7 1 2 8 8 .0 17 National EconomicTrends Trade and Investment Income Balances Billions of dollars 10 0 -10 -2 0 -3 0 -4 0 Exchange Rates 100 x (Deutsche marKAJSS) Yen/US$ - 450 Index, March 1973-100 160 - 375 140 - 300 120 - 225 100 - 150 80 Goods Export Shares, 1997 Goods Import Shares, 1997 All Other 36.58% All Other 32.36% Mexico Mexico Canada 22.34% Other OECD 13.83% Other OECD 9.60% Canada 19.17% 2.35% 9.65% 18 Germany 3.60% France UK 2.35% 5.36% Japan 13.87% UK 3.72% Germany 4.92% National EconomicTrends Trade Balance Goods Trade Billions of dollars Percent change from year ago 20 - ................................................ 0 -5 - 1997 1996 1998 Current Account Balance Services Trade Billions of dollars Percent change from year ago 20 - ................................................ 0 1996 1997 1998 Real GDP Growth of Major Trading Partners Percent change at annual rate United Kingdom 8- 1996 1997 1998 19 NationalEconom icTrends Output per Hour and Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Percent change from year ago Nonfarm Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago Output per Hour and Multifactor Productivity, Manufacturing Percent change, annual data 7.5 - .......* r ................» ..... 20 Percent tiationalEconom icTrends Nonfarm Output per Hour Manufacturing Output per Hour Percent change at annual rate 5 - .................................................. Percent change at annual rate 10 - ................ -....................................... -2 -2 -3 T 1997 1996 1998 1996 1997 1998 Selected Component Shares of National Income 5i ........... 73 T 7 ............ 74 75 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 t 1 1 1 1 1 1 ............ .............. .............r .............I.... :.......I ...... ................................... ............. ............ r ........... ............ ............. ............ r ..... " ' " f ............ ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. .............r 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 Corporate Profits after Tax (with IVA and CCAdj) Percent change from year ago 80 * m 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 67 HationaìEconom icTrends Nominal GDP Real GDP Percent chanae Annual Year Billions rate of $ ago 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1995 1996 1997 1998 Billions of 1992 $ Billions of 1992 $ 6 3 8 9 .5 6 3 2 .3 6 3 6 8 .8 6 4 2.1 5 .9 6 6 1 0 .7 4 1 3 .5 6 5 5 1 .2 4 7 2 .9 6 0 .5 5 2 7 2 6 5 .4 4 .6 6 7 4 2 .0 6 2 2.0 6 7 1 2 .6 7 2 2 .5 2 7 .3 4 1 7 6 3 6 .0 5.1 6 9 2 8 .3 9 6 2.8 6 9 0 0 .9 8 0 2 .8 2 5 .0 3 8 8 0 7 9 .9 5 .8 7 1 8 8 .8 2 0 3 .8 71 1 8 .3 2 4 3.1 6 5 .7 1 2 5 .5 6 7 0 3 .7 2 1 0 .9 2 .7 6 6 5 4 .2 8 9 1.8 2 .8 4 8 .4 7 9 5 9 .4 0 7 0 .3 1.6 6 6 8 5 .2 8 9 1 .9 2 .4 2 1 .6 3 8 4 5 .8 4 2 1 2 3 4 71 6 8 .9 1 2 4 .2 7 2 0 9 .5 2 .3 4 .3 7 3 0 1 .3 5 .2 4 .5 6 7 5 9 .2 3 4 3 .0 2 .0 6 7 3 9 .3 0 6 3 .3 2 .4 1 7 .0 2 3 3 7 .6 8 3 7 3 8 1 .9 4 .5 4 .0 6 7 9 6 .5 1 3 2.2 1.6 6 7 7 1 .9 2 7 2.0 2.2 2 2 .2 2 3 2 7 .3 4 1 7 4 6 7 .5 4 .7 4 .2 6 8 2 6 .3 6 2 1.8 1.8 6 8 1 4 .9 6 6 2.6 2 .4 8 .0 3 9 1 7 .2 3 1 7 6 0 7 .7 7 .7 5 .5 6 9 2 6 .0 2 3 6.0 3 .2 6 9 0 2 .2 9 0 5 .2 3 .2 2 1 .2 8 8 1 7 .1 4 3 3 4 7 6 7 6 .0 3 .6 5.1 6 9 4 3 .8 2 0 1.0 2 .7 6 9 0 5 .0 3 4 0 .2 2 .5 3 7 .9 0 3 2 2 .3 6 3 7 7 9 2 .9 6.2 5 .6 7 0 1 7 .3 7 9 4 .3 3 .2 6 9 8 1 .6 9 2 4 .5 3.1 3 2 .9 2 2 2 5 .0 3 8 1 2 3 4 7 9 3 3 .6 7 .4 6 .2 7 1 0 1 .6 1 7 4 .9 4 .0 7 0 3 4 .0 8 7 3 .0 3 .2 6 3 .6 5 7 3 8 .9 4 3 8 0 3 4 .3 5 .2 5 .6 7 1 5 9 .6 2 7 3 .3 3 .4 7 0 7 7 .7 4 9 2 .5 2 .5 7 7 .6 0 3 5 3 .0 2 1 8 1 2 4 .3 4 .6 5 .8 7 2 1 4 .0 1 7 3.1 3 .9 7 1 6 0 .3 3 3 4 .7 3 .7 4 7 .5 3 9 5 5 .4 3 0 8 2 2 7 .4 5 .2 5 .6 7 2 8 0 .0 2 0 3 .7 3 .7 7 2 0 1 .1 2 6 2 .3 3.1 7 4 .0 4 9 6 5 .7 1 2 1 8 3 5 9 .3 6.6 5 .4 7 3 7 5 .6 8 5 5 .4 3 .9 7 2 6 6 .4 3 2 3 .7 3 .3 1 0 5 .7 4 7 7 6 .2 3 5 Durables Consumption Private Fu(ed Investment Billions of 1992 $ 1993 1994 4 3 4 3 .5 6 3 2 .9 5 2 3 .8 4 1 7 .2 8 4 2 .7 7 2 4 4 8 5 .9 8 1 3 .3 5 6 1 .1 8 9 7.1 9 1 5 .5 3 6 1995 1996 1997 4 5 9 5 .2 7 3 2 .4 5 8 3 .5 9 8 4 .0 9 6 2 .1 1 9 4 7 1 4 .0 6 1 2 .6 6 1 1 .1 0 7 4 .7 4 8 6 7 .4 6 1 3 .3 6 4 5 .5 4 8 5 .6 1998 2 2 .1 0 2 6 7 0 8 .8 4 1 Billions of 1992 $ 1997 Billions of 1992 $ Last qtr Year/Year ago 5 .0 Percent chanae Year Annual rate ago 1996 Change in Business Inventories 6 9 4 7 .0 Percent chanae Year Annual rate ago 1995 Percent chanae Year Annua rate ago 6 5 5 8 .1 Consumption Nonreside ntial Investment Billions of 1992 $ Percent chanae Annual Year rate ago 7 .6 6 0 0 .1 6 7 7 .6 8.6 6 4 8 .3 6 1 8.0 5.1 7 0 6 .5 1 3 9 .0 1 0 4 1 .6 9 9 8 .3 7 7 1 .6 8 3 9 .2 1 1 2 3 .5 6 4 7 .9 8 4 8 .2 6 8 9 .9 Billions of 1992 $ Percent chanae Year Annual rate ago 1 4 5 5 1 .3 0 3 1 .5 2 .5 5 7 2 .2 3 0 -3 .0 3 .9 9 5 5 .8 2 0 7 .6 7 .7 6 9 5 .6 7 4 1 4 .2 11.1 2 4 5 8 3 .4 5 8 2 .9 2 .5 5 7 7 .7 0 6 3 .9 3 .9 9 5 4 .0 3 4 -0 .7 4 .5 7 0 5 .3 5 3 5 .7 1 0 .0 3 4 4 6 1 2 .9 1 2 2 .6 2 .5 5 9 0 .7 5 5 9 .3 5 .2 9 6 2 .3 1 5 3 .5 4 .3 7 0 8 .2 3 1 1.6 8 .4 4 6 3 3 .4 6 3 1 .8 2 .2 5 9 3 .7 0 1 2.0 3 .0 9 7 6 .3 1 5 5 .9 4 .0 7 1 6 .8 0 0 4 .9 6 .5 1 4 6 6 9 .3 7 3 3.1 2 .6 6 0 0 .6 6 2 4 .8 5 .0 1 0 0 1 .5 3 3 1 0 .7 4 .8 7 3 6 .9 3 9 1 1 .7 5 .9 2 4 7 1 2 .2 0 4 3 .7 2 .8 6 1 4 .7 7 1 9 .7 6 .4 1 0 3 5 .6 8 3 1 4 .4 8 .6 7 5 9 .7 3 4 1 3 .0 7 .7 3 4 4 7 1 8 .1 9 6 0 .5 2 .3 6 1 1 .8 6 4 -1 .9 3 .6 1 0 6 0 .8 8 6 10.1 1 0 .2 7 8 9 .2 9 0 1 6 .5 1 1 .4 4 7 5 6 .4 2 7 3 .3 2 .7 6 1 7 .1 3 1 3 .5 3 .9 1 0 6 8 .6 9 6 3 .0 9 .5 8 0 0 .7 7 1 5 .9 1 1 .7 1 4 8 1 8 .0 7 9 5 .3 3 .2 6 3 7 .7 6 6 14.1 6.2 1 0 7 9 .0 0 6 3 .9 7 .7 8 0 8 .9 3 2 4.1 9 .8 2 4 8 2 9 .4 3 0 0 .9 2 .5 6 2 8 .9 9 2 -5 .4 2 .3 1 1 1 1 .3 9 3 12 .6 7 .3 8 3 6 .9 9 3 1 4 .6 10 .2 3 4 4 8 9 6 .1 8 7 5 .6 3 .8 6 5 6 .1 4 0 1 8 .4 7 .2 1 1 4 9 .3 0 3 1 4 .4 8 .3 8 7 4 .4 8 2 1 9 .2 10 .8 4 9 2 6 .1 4 8 2 .5 3 .6 6 5 9 .2 9 6 1.9 6.8 1 1 5 4 .5 5 2 1.8 8 .0 8 7 2 .6 6 3 - 0.8 9 .0 1 4 9 9 8 .6 8 6 6.0 3 .7 6 8 2 .7 2 1 1 5 .0 7 .0 1 2 0 2 .2 3 9 1 7 .6 1 1 .4 9 0 9 .2 2 0 1 7 .8 1 2 .4 22 Final Sales Percent chanae Annual Year rate ago National EconomicTrends Employment Cost Index GDP Chain Price Index Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago ECI: Benefits ECI: Wages Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index Percent chanae Annual Year rate ago 1993 1994 1 0 2 .6 4 3 2 .6 1 1 8 .4 3 .6 1 1 5 .2 2 .9 1 2 7 .0 5 .4 1 0 5 .0 8 8 2 .4 1 2 2 .2 3 .2 1 1 8 .5 2 .9 1 3 2 .1 4 .0 1995 1996 1997 1 0 7 .7 6 3 2 .5 1 2 5 .7 2.8 1 2 1 .9 2 .9 1 3 5 .0 2 .2 1.8 2 .0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1 1 0 .2 2 4 2 .3 1 2 9 .2 2.8 1 2 6 .0 3 .3 1 3 7 .4 1 1 2 .4 4 7 2 .0 1 3 3 .2 3.1 1 3 0 .4 3 .5 1 4 0 .2 1 2 1 0 6 .9 3 3 3 .3 2 .7 1 2 4 .4 2 .9 3 .0 12 0 .6 2 .7 3 .0 1 3 3 .9 1.2 2 .7 1 0 7 .4 8 5 2.1 2 .6 1 2 5 .3 2 .9 2 .9 1 2 1 .5 3 .0 2 .9 1 3 4 .6 2.1 2 .4 3 4 1 0 8 .0 3 1 2.0 2 .5 1 2 6 .1 2 .6 2 .7 1 2 2 .4 3 .0 2 .9 1 3 5 .3 2.1 1.9 1 0 8 .6 0 3 2.1 2 .4 1 2 6 .9 2.6 2.8 1 2 3 .2 2 .6 2 .8 1 3 6 .0 2.1 1 .9 1 2 3 4 1 0 9 .3 4 9 2 .8 2 .3 1 2 7 .7 2 .5 2 .7 1 2 4 .4 4 .0 3 .2 1 3 6 .1 0 .3 1.6 1 0 9 .8 5 7 1.9 2.2 1 2 8 .8 3 .5 2.8 1 2 5 .6 3 .9 3 .4 1 3 7 .0 2 .7 1.8 1 1 0 .5 8 8 2 .7 2 .4 1 2 9 .7 2.8 2 .9 1 2 6 .5 2 .9 3 .3 1 3 7 .8 2 .4 1.8 1 1 1 .1 0 3 1 .9 2 .3 1 3 0 .6 2.8 2 .9 1 2 7 .4 2 .9 3 .4 1 3 8 .6 2 .3 1.9 1 2 3 4 1 1 1 1 .7 7 5 2 .4 2 .2 1 3 1 .4 2 .5 2 .9 1 2 8 .5 3 .5 3 .3 1 3 8 .8 0 .6 2.0 1 1 2 .2 7 2 1.8 2.2 1 3 2 .6 3 .7 3 .0 1 2 9 .7 3 .8 3 .3 1 3 9 .7 2 .6 2.0 1 1 2 .6 7 3 1 .4 1.9 1 3 3 .7 3 .4 3.1 1 3 1 .0 4.1 3 .6 1 4 0 .4 2 .0 1.9 1 1 3 .0 6 8 1 .4 1.8 1 3 5 .1 4 .3 3 .4 1 3 2 .5 4 .7 4 .0 1 4 1 .7 3 .8 2.2 1 1 3 .3 9 5 1.2 1 .4 1 3 6 .0 2 .7 3 .5 1 3 3 .6 3 .4 4 .0 1 42.1 1.1 2 .4 Imports Exports 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1995 1996 1997 1998 Nonfarm Output per Hour Nonfarm Compensation/Hr Percent change Annual Year rate ago Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 1992 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index 2 .9 7 2 8 .4 0 9 8 .9 100.1 0.1 1 0 2 .3 7 1 2 .3 9 9 8.2 8 1 7 .0 2 6 12.2 1 0 0 .5 0 .4 1 0 4 .1 1.8 7 9 1 .2 1 3 1 1.1 8 9 0 .0 5 7 8 .9 1 0 0 .7 0 .2 1 0 6 .7 2 .5 Billions of 1992 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago 6 5 8 .1 8 3 Index 2 .3 8 5 7 .0 2 2 8 .3 9 7 1 .4 6 9 9.1 10 2 .6 1.9 1 10 .8 3 .8 9 6 2 .7 1 0 1 2 .3 1 1 0 9 .2 3 3 1 4 .2 1 0 4 .3 1 .7 1 1 5 .0 3 .8 1 2 7 6 0 .3 6 8 7 .2 1 2 .5 8 7 3 .8 6 1 10 .0 1 3 .0 1 0 0 .3 - 1.6 -0 .3 1 0 5 .5 2 .3 1.6 7 7 7 .4 4 7 9 .3 1 0 .4 8 9 0 .2 8 4 7 .7 10.2 1 0 0 .5 0 .8 - 0 .2 1 0 6 .3 3.1 2 .3 3 4 8 0 2 .4 3 5 1 3 .5 11.1 8 9 5 .3 6 8 2 .3 7 .5 1 0 0 .8 1.2 0 .4 1 0 7 .1 3 .0 2 .8 8 2 4 .6 0 4 1 1 .5 1 0 .3 9 0 0 .7 2 0 2 .4 5 .6 1 0 1 .4 2 .4 0 .7 1 0 8 .1 3 .8 3.1 1 2 8 2 8 .1 7 8 1 .7 8 .9 9 2 8 .9 6 3 13.1 6 .3 102.1 2 .8 1.8 1 09.1 3 .8 3 .4 8 4 7 .4 4 4 9 .6 9 .0 9 6 0 .0 4 3 14.1 7 .8 1 0 2 .8 2 .8 2 .3 1 1 0 .5 5 .2 4 .0 3 4 8 5 1 .3 8 2 1.9 6.1 9 9 0 .2 4 0 1 3 .2 10.6 10 2 .6 - 0.8 1.8 1 1 1 .4 3 .3 4 .0 9 0 1 .0 7 1 2 5 .5 9 .3 1 0 0 6 .6 2 3 6.8 1 1 .8 103.1 2 .0 1 .7 1 1 2 .3 3 .3 3 .9 1 2 3 4 9 2 2 .6 5 2 9 .9 1 1 .4 1 0 4 8 .9 4 1 1 7 .9 12 .9 1 0 3 .4 1.2 1 .3 1 1 3 .5 4 .3 4 .0 9 6 2 .5 0 0 1 8 .4 1 3 .6 1 0 9 9 .1 0 6 2 0 .5 1 4 .5 1 0 4 .0 2 .3 1.2 1 1 4 .4 3 .2 3 .5 9 7 3 .0 2 5 4 .4 1 4 .3 1 1 3 7 .0 9 7 1 4 .6 1 4 .8 1 0 4 .9 3 .5 2 .2 1 1 5 .5 3 .9 3 .7 9 9 2 .6 6 1 8 .3 10 .2 1 1 5 1 .7 8 7 5 .3 1 4 .4 1 0 5 .3 1 .5 2.1 1 1 7 .0 5 .3 4 .2 9 8 9 .6 1 8 - 1.2 7 .3 1 1 9 8 .0 3 2 17.1 1 4 .2 1 0 5 .6 1.1 2.1 1 1 8 .2 4 .2 4.1 1 23 National EconomicTrends Household Survev Emolovment Thousands Change Nonfarm Pavroll Emolovment Percent chanae Year Annual ago rate Nonfarm Aaareoate Hours Percent chanae Annual Year rate ago Thousands Change Index 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 120259 1771 1.5 110692 2101 1.9 1 24.6 123069 2810 2.3 114131 3440 3.1 129.9 4.2 124903 1834 1.5 1 1 7187 3055 2.7 1 3 3 .4 2 .7 2.1 2.6 1 36.6 2 .4 1 4 1 .4 3 .5 126708 1805 1.4 1 19590 2403 129557 28 4 9 2.2 122677 3086 1 2 3 4 125656 449 1.4 0.6 118459 524 126323 667 2.1 1.3 119273 814 127067 744 2 .4 701 7 20 2.3 1.8 2.1 1 1 9974 127787 120655 681 1 2 3 4 128697 910 2.9 2.4 121461 129387 690 2.4 122317 129723 3 36 678 2.2 2.5 141.7 698 2.1 2.1 122995 130421 2.2 1.0 2.2 123934 939 3.1 2.7 1 131080 659 2.0 1.9 124795 8 62 2.8 1996 May Jun 126321 264 2.5 1.5 119300 331 3.4 126591 2 70 2.6 1.7 119549 249 2.5 1996 1997 1998 Percent chanae Monthly Annual Year rate rate ago Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1997 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 1.8 2.8 2.9 1.7 1 34.5 0.2 1.0 1.2 136.2 1.3 5 .3 2 .5 2 .4 2.0 2.2 1 37.3 2.7 2.3 1 38.4 0.8 0.8 3.1 2.3 3 .3 3.2 8 05 2.7 2.5 139.7 3.9 2.9 2.6 140.9 3 .4 3 .4 143.1 1.0 0.8 0.6 1.0 3.9 8 56 2.7 144.3 2.1 2.1 2 .3 3.2 4.1 3 .4 0.8 3.2 3.2 136.2 0.6 7 .3 2.8 137.1 0.7 8.2 2.9 136.6 -0 .4 -4 .3 2.6 137.3 0 .5 6.3 2.7 137.9 0 .4 5 .4 2.8 126867 2 76 2.6 1.7 119741 192 1.9 126995 128 1.2 1.8 120024 283 2.9 127338 3 43 3.3 1.9 120157 133 1.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 127715 3 77 3.6 1.9 120382 225 2.3 2.2 137.9 0.0 0.0 2.9 127746 31 0.3 120683 301 3.0 2.3 138.3 0.3 3.5 3.0 1 2 7 89 9 153 1.4 2.0 2.2 120901 218 2.2 2 .4 139.0 0.5 6.2 3.6 128541 642 6.2 2.6 121 146 245 2.5 2.6 138.8 - 0.1 -1 .7 4.7 128515 -2 6 - 0.2 2.2 121457 31 1 3.1 2.5 139.8 0.7 9 .0 3.3 129035 520 5.0 2.4 121779 322 3.2 2.5 140.6 0.6 7.1 3.7 129275 240 2.3 2.6 122092 313 3.1 2.6 140.6 0.0 0.0 3.8 129494 219 2.1 2.5 122325 233 2.3 2.5 141.2 0 .4 5.2 3.7 129392 -1 0 2 -0 .9 2.2 122534 209 2.1 2 .5 140.9 - 0.2 -2 .5 2.8 129661 269 2.5 277 2.7 2.6 141.3 0.3 3.5 3 .4 86 122894 83 0.8 2 .4 141.7 0.3 3.5 3 .2 129761 14 0.8 0.1 2.2 2.2 122811 129747 1.9 123280 386 3.8 2.6 142.1 0.3 3 .4 3.0 Oct Nov Dec 129910 149 1.4 1.7 123568 288 2.8 2.6 142.6 0 .4 4.3 3 .4 130575 665 6.3 2.2 12 3944 376 3.7 2.7 1 43.2 0 .4 5.2 3 .5 13 0 77 7 202 1.9 2.3 124289 345 3 .4 2.8 143.6 0 .3 3 .4 3 .3 1998 Jan Feb Mar 131083 306 2.8 351 3 .4 2.9 144.6 0.7 8.7 4.2 80 0.7 2.0 2.1 124640 131163 124832 192 1.9 144 .4 - 0.1 - 1.6 3.3 130994 -1 6 9 -1 .5 1.5 124914 82 0.8 2.8 2.6 143.8 -0 .4 -4 .9 2.3 Apr May 131383 389 3 .6 1.6 125216 302 2.9 0.1 0.8 2 .3 70 0.6 1.5 125512 296 2.9 2.6 2.6 143.9 131453 144.9 0 .7 8.7 2.6 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 24 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NationalEconom icTrends Retail Sales 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Unempl. Rate Billions of dollars Industrial Production Percent chanae Year Monthly/ Annual quarterly rate ago Index Percent chanae Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago Treasury Yields 3-mo 1 0 -y r 5 .8 6 6.9 2 0 7 2 .4 3 4 6.5 1 0 3 .5 5 4 3.6 3 .0 0 6.1 2 2 2 7 .8 3 8 7.5 109.171 5 .4 4 .2 5 7.0 8 5.6 2 3 3 1 .6 1 7 4.7 1 14.543 4.9 5 .49 6.5 8 5.4 2 4 5 5 .2 3 4 5.3 1 18.499 3 .5 5.01 6 .4 4 5.0 2 5 6 8 .2 2 7 4.6 124.4 2 3 5 .0 5 .0 6 6.3 5 1 2 3 4 5.6 602.441 1.7 7.1 5.2 1 16.105 0 .5 2.0 2 .3 4 .9 3 5.91 5.4 6 1 3 .4 3 6 7.5 5.7 1 18.228 1.8 7 .5 3 .8 5 .0 2 6.7 2 5.3 6 1 4 .7 4 9 0.9 4.9 1 19.270 0.9 3 .6 3 .5 5 .1 0 6.78 5.3 6 2 4 .6 0 8 1.8 0.2 1.6 6.6 5.5 120.3 9 3 0.9 3 .8 4 .2 4 .9 8 6 .3 4 1 2 3 4 5.3 639.631 2 .4 10.0 6.2 121.9 4 0 1.3 5.2 5 .0 5 .0 6 6 .5 6 4.9 634.161 -0 .9 -3 .4 3.4 123.312 1.1 4.6 4.3 5 .0 5 6 .7 0 4.9 646.541 8.0 0.8 125.1 19 1.5 6.0 4.9 5 .0 5 6 .2 4 6 4 7 .8 9 4 2.0 0.2 5.2 4.7 3.7 127.321 1.8 7.2 5 .8 5.0 9 5 .9 0 1 4.7 6 6 0 .9 7 5 2.0 8 .3 3.3 127.649 0 .3 1.0 4.7 5 .0 5 5 .5 9 1996 May Jun 5.5 2 0 5 .5 1 3 0.9 1 1.0 6.0 1 18.257 0.6 7.7 3 .8 5 .0 2 6 .7 4 5.3 2 0 4 .1 8 7 - 0.6 -7 .5 4.8 1 18.897 0.5 6.7 4 .0 5 .09 6.91 1996 1997 1998 Jul Aug Sep 5.5 2 0 4 .3 7 4 0.1 1.1 5.1 1 18.943 0.0 0 .5 4.1 5 .1 5 6 .8 7 5.2 2 0 4 .2 5 6 - 0.1 -0 .7 4.3 1 19.253 0.3 3.2 3 .3 5 .0 5 6 .6 4 5.2 206.1 19 0.9 1 1.5 5.2 1 19.613 0 .3 3.7 3 .2 5 .0 9 6 .8 3 Oct Nov Dec 5.3 208.1 13 1.0 12.2 6.4 1 19.650 3 .7 4 .9 9 6 .5 3 2 0 7 .8 4 4 - 0.1 -1 .5 5.2 120.587 0.0 0.8 0 .4 5 .4 9.8 4.3 5 .0 3 6.20 5.3 2 08.651 0 .4 4.8 4.9 120.943 0 .3 3 .6 4.7 4.91 6 .3 0 1997 Jan Feb Mar 5.3 21 1.170 1.2 15.5 6.4 121.288 0.3 3.5 5 .2 5 .0 3 6 .5 8 5.3 2 1 3 .9 4 5 1.3 17.0 6.2 12 2 .0 6 4 0.6 8.0 4.6 5.01 6 .4 2 5.2 2 1 4 .5 1 6 0 .3 3 .3 5.9 122.4 6 8 0.3 4 .0 5 .3 5 .1 4 6.69 Apr May Jun 5.0 21 1.018 - 1.6 -1 7 .9 3.6 123.0 7 3 0.5 6.1 4.7 5.1 6 6.8 9 4.8 2 1 0 .6 5 7 - 0.2 - 2.0 2.5 123.3 1 6 2 .4 4.3 5 .0 5 6.71 5.0 2 1 2 .4 8 6 0.9 10.9 4.1 123.5 4 6 0.2 0.2 2 .3 3.9 4 .9 3 6 .49 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1998 Jan Feb Mar Apr May 4.9 215.031 1.2 15.4 5.2 124.5 2 7 4.7 5 .0 5 6.22 2 1 6 .0 2 2 0 .5 5.7 5.8 125.2 4 6 0.8 0.6 10.0 4.9 7 .2 5.0 5 .1 4 6 .3 0 4.9 2 1 5 .4 8 8 - 0.2 -2 .9 4.5 125.5 8 5 0.3 3 .3 5 .0 4 .9 5 6.21 4.8 215.1 13 - 0.2 - 2.1 3.4 1 2 6 .5 5 0 5 .8 4 .9 7 6 .0 3 2 1 5 .9 1 4 0 .4 4.6 3.9 1 2 7 .5 2 8 0.8 0.8 9 .6 4.6 9 .7 5.8 5 .1 4 5 .8 7 4.7 2 1 6 .8 6 7 0 .4 5 .4 3.9 1 2 7 .8 8 4 0.3 3 .4 5.7 5 .1 6 5.81 5 .5 4 4.7 2 1 9 .0 0 4 1.0 12.5 3.7 127.813 - 0.1 -0 .7 5 .4 5 .0 4 4.6 220.866 0.9 10.7 3.2 127.3 2 7 -0 .4 -4 .5 4 .3 5 .09 5 .5 7 4.7 2 2 1 .1 0 5 0.1 1.3 3.1 127.8 0 8 0.4 4.6 4 .4 5 .0 3 5 .6 5 4.3 2 2 2 .5 8 0 0.7 8.3 5.5 128.1 5 3 0.3 3 .3 4.1 4 .9 5 5 .6 4 4.3 2 2 4 .6 2 3 0.9 1 1.6 6.6 128.7 6 3 0.5 5.9 4 .4 5 .0 0 5 .6 5 25 National EconomicTrends wnsumer rnceinue* Index 1996 1997 Year ago Finished Goods Percent chanae Percent chanae Monthly/ Annual quarterly rate rroaucer rnce maex less Food and Energy Consumer Price Index Year to date Index Monthly/ Annual quarterly rate Percent chanae Year Year ago to date Index Monthly/ Annual quarterly rate Year ago 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1 4 4 .6 3.0 152.4 3 .3 124.7 1 48.3 156.7 2.8 125.5 1 52.5 2.6 2.8 161.4 3 .0 127.9 1.9 1 57.0 2.9 165.8 2 .7 1 31.3 2.6 1 60 .6 2.3 169.7 2 .4 131.8 0 .4 1 155.1 0.8 3 .2 2.8 3.2 164.2 0.7 2.6 2.9 2.6 129.9 0 .9 3.8 2 2.2 1 5 6 .5 0.9 3 .7 2.9 3.5 165.2 0.6 2.5 2.7 2 .5 131.1 0.9 3.7 2 .5 3 4 157 .5 0.6 0.8 2 .4 2.9 3.1 166.3 0 .7 2.7 2.7 0.3 1.2 2.8 3 .3 3.2 3.2 167.4 0.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 131.5 158 .8 132.6 0.8 3.3 3 .0 1 159 .6 0 .5 2.2 2.9 168.3 0.5 2.2 2 .5 2.2 132.7 0.1 2 0.2 2.1 1 60.2 0 .3 1.3 2 .3 169.4 0.7 2.7 2.5 2 .4 131.7 - 0.8 -3 .0 0 .4 170.2 0 .4 1.7 2 .3 1 3 1 .4 - 0.2 - 0.8 - 0.1 131.6 0.2 0.6 - 0.8 130 .3 - 1.0 - 3 .8 - 1.8 2 .4 1.2 0.6 3 4 160.9 0 .5 1.9 2.2 2.2 1.8 1.8 1 61.8 0.5 2.1 1.9 1.9 171.1 0 .5 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 1 162.0 0.1 0 .5 1.5 0 .5 172.1 0.6 2.4 2.3 2 .4 1996 May Jun 1 56.6 0 .3 3.1 2.9 3.9 165.2 2.7 2.7 131.1 0.1 1.5 2.8 3.5 165.6 0.2 0.2 2.2 1 56.8 2.9 2.7 2.7 1 3 1 .4 0.2 0.2 1.8 2.8 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.9 2.7 2.7 1 31.3 - 0.1 - 0 .9 2.6 2.2 2 .7 2.7 1 31.5 2.6 2.7 1 31.8 1.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 1 32.3 0 .4 4.6 3.1 2.7 1 32.5 0.2 1.8 3 .0 2.6 133.0 0 .4 4.6 2.9 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2 .5 2.2 2.2 2.2 133.0 0.0 0.0 2 .5 132.6 -0 .3 -3 .5 2.2 132 .4 - 0.2 - 1.8 1.5 1998 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1997 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1998 Jan Feb Mar Apr May 1 57.2 0 .3 3.1 2.9 3.5 166.0 1 5 7 .4 0.1 1.5 2.9 3.2 166.3 1 57.8 0 .3 3.1 3.0 3.2 166.7 1 58.3 0 .3 3.9 3.0 3.3 167.1 1 58.8 0 .3 3.9 3.2 3.3 167.4 1 59.2 0 .3 3.1 3.3 3.3 167.7 1 5 9 .4 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.5 3.0 1.5 168.0 2 .3 3.0 1.9 168.3 0.8 2.7 1.5 168.6 1 59.7 1 59.8 1 6 0 .0 1 60.1 1 6 0 .4 1 60.6 160.9 1 61.3 1 61.6 1 61.8 161.9 1 61 .9 1 62.0 1 6 2 .0 2.5 2 .4 2.9 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.5 2 .4 1.5 169.2 0 .4 4 .4 2.6 2.7 131.9 -0 .4 - 4 .4 0.8 0.8 2.2 1.4 169.4 1.4 2.5 2.5 131.7 - 0.2 - 1.8 0 .5 2 .3 2 .3 1.5 169.7 0.1 0.2 2.1 2 .5 2.4 1 3 1 .4 - 0.2 -2 .7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.5 170.0 1.6 1.8 170.1 3 .0 2.2 2.2 2.2 1.5 2 .3 2 .3 2.1 1.5 1.9 1.8 1.8 171.0 0 .7 1.7 1.7 171.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 170.4 170.8 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 2.1 2 .4 2.4 131.1 - 0.2 -2 .7 - 0.2 0.7 2.3 131.3 0.2 1.8 - 0.2 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 131.8 0 .4 4.7 0.0 2.9 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.2 131.8 0.0 0.0 - 0 .4 131.6 - 0.2 - 1.8 - 0 .7 1 3 1 .4 - 0.2 - 1.8 - 1.2 1.4 2.8 0.0 1.6 0.0 171.7 0.2 2.1 2.2 - 0.6 - 7 .1 - 1.8 1.4 0 .4 172.2 0 .3 3 .6 2 .3 2.1 2.8 1 30.6 0 .7 1 30.4 - 0.2 - 1.8 - 1 .7 0.0 1.4 0.2 172.4 0.1 1.4 2 .3 2 .4 1 30.0 -0 .3 -3 .6 - 1.8 0.2 0.2 2.8 - 1.2 1.9 -0 .9 1 6 2 .4 0.2 3 .0 1.5 0.9 172.9 0 .3 3 .5 2.2 2.6 1 30.3 162.9 0 .3 3 .8 1.7 1.5 173.3 0.2 2.8 2 .3 2 .7 1 30.5 26 2.2 2.2 2.7 National EconomicTrends Notes Pages 4, 5: Final sales is gross domestic product (GDP) minus change in business inventories. Advance, preliminary, and final GDP growth rates are released during the first, second, and third months of the following quarter. Changes result from incorporation of more com plete information. The Purchasing Managers’ Index is a weighted average of diffusion indexes for new orders, production, supplier deliv eries, inventories, and employment. The National Association of Pur chasing Management (NAPM) surveys over 300 firms in 20 manufac turing industries, weighting responses by industry share of GDP. Ag gregate and average weekly hours are paid hours of production and nonsupervisory employees. The inventory-sales ratio uses nominal (current-dollar) inventory and sales data. Page 6: The contribution of a component X, to the overall GDP growth rate in quarter t is 100 x [(1 + (X, - Xt.i)IGDP,.i)A- 1], The sign is changed for imports. This calculation forces components to add up to the GDP growth rate before compounding and does not exactly match Survey o f Current Business, Table 8.2. The residual line is calculated using the finest level of detail in the table. Page 7: Ten-year Treasury yields are adjusted to constant maturity. Three-month yields are secondary market averages, but all rates used in the yield curves are adjusted to constant maturity. Standard and Poor’s 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends shows the total return: capital gains plus dividends. Pages 8,9: Oil prices are monthly averages of daily spot prices for West Texas intermediate crude (Wall Street Journal). Consumer price index is for all urban consumers. The consumption chain price index is the index associated with the personal consumption expenditures component of GDP. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) covers pri vate nonfarm employers. ECI compensation refers to a fixed sample of jobs, while compensation per hour covers all workers in the non farm business sector in a given quarter. In both cases, compensation is wages and salaries plus benefits. Pages 10,11: Nonfarm payroll employment is counted in a survey of about 390,000 establishments (Current Employment Survey). It ex cludes self-employed individuals and workers in private households, but double-counts individuals with more than one job. The household survey (Current Population Survey) of about 50,000 households pro vides estimates of civilian employment, unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and employment-population ratio. Population is civilian, noninstitutional, 16 years and over. New population controls introduced in January 1997 affect levels and growth rates of household survey employment, labor force and population. The unemployment rate and other ratios are minimally affected. 90 percent confidence intervals for the unemployment rate (± 0.2 percentage points) and change in household survey employment (± 376,000) measure uncer tainty due to sample size. The household survey was changed in Janu ary 1994, so care should be exercised in making short-term compari sons around this date, particularly with the duration data shown on page 10. Other changes in the survey are detailed in Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment and Earnings, Appendix A. Pages 12, 13: Debt service is an estimate of scheduled interest and principal payments on outstanding debt. The Michigan consumer sentiment index shows changes in a summary measure of consumers’ answers to five questions about their current and expected financial situation, expectations about future economic conditions, and attitudes about making large purchases. The survey is based on a representative sample of U.S. households. Pages 14, 15: Overall gross saving includes government saving, which is the sum of the government surplus and capital consumption (see notes for pages 16 and 17). Net foreign investment (NFI) is U.S. investment abroad minus foreign investment in the U.S. Aside from a statistical discrepancy, NFI also equals the difference between gross domestic investment and saving. Pages 16, 17: Government consumption and investment is current expenditures on goods and services, including capital consumption (depreciation) and gross investment, as reported in the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA). The unified federal budget deficit differs from NIPA basis in four main ways: (1) NIPA excludes trans actions involving existing assets; (2) NIPA outlays exclude government investment and include consumption of government capital, while unified budget outlays do the reverse; (3) NIPA accounts exclude Puerto Rico and U.S. territories; and (4) various timing issues are handled differently. Outlays and receipts are from the NIP As, except as noted. Since 1977, the federal fiscal year starts on October 1. Excluded agency debt was 0.6 percent of federal debt at the end of fiscal 1997. Federal debt held by the public includes holdings of the Federal Reserve System and excludes holdings of the social security and other federal trust funds. Federal grants in aid to state and local governments appear in both state and local receipts and federal outlays. Pages 18, 19: The trade balance (shown on a balance of payments basis) is the difference between exports and imports of goods (mer chandise) and services. It is nearly identical in concept to the net ex ports component of GDP, but differs slightly in accounting details. The investment income balance equals income received from U.S.owned assets in other countries minus income paid on foreign-owned assets in the U.S. The investment income balance is nearly identical in concept to the difference between gross national product and gross domestic product, but differs in accounting details. The current ac count balance is the trade balance plus the balance on investment income plus net unilateral transfers to the U.S. from other countries. Pages 20, 21: Output per hour (Y/H), unit labor cost (C/Y), and compensation per hour (C/H) are indexes which approximately obey the following relationship: %(Y/H) + %(C/Y) = %(C/H) with %() meaning percent changes. Unit labor cost is shown on page 9. Real compensation per hour uses the CPI to adjust for the effects of infla tion. Multifactor productivity estimates changes in output that do not correspond to changes in quantities of labor, capital, or intermediate inputs. Inventory valuation adjustments (IVA) remove the effect of changes in the value of existing inventories from corporate profits and proprietors’ income. (This change in value does not correspond to current production and therefore is not part of GDP). Capital con sumption adjustments (CCAdj) increase profits and proprietors’ income by the difference between estimates of economic depreciation and depreciation allowed by the tax code. Components of national income not shown are rental income of persons and net interest. Sources Bureau o f Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Dept, o f Commerce National income and product accounts, international trade and in vestment data (except by country), auto and light truck sales Census Bureau, U.S. Dept, o f Commerce Inventory-sales ratios, retail sales, capital goods orders, housing starts, exports and imports by country Bureau o f Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Dept, o f Labor All employment-related data, employment cost index, consumer and producer price indexes, unit labor cost, output per hour, compensa tion per hour, total factor productivity United States Department o f Treasury Unified budget receipts, outlays, deficit, debt Federal Reserve Board Index of industrial production, treasury yields, exchange rates, capac ity utilization, consumer debt service The Survey Research Center, The University o f Michigan Consumer sentiment index The Conference Board Help-wanted advertising index Organization fo r Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) GDP for major trading partners (not available on FRED) 27 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Post Office Box 442 St. Louis, Missouri 63166 Subscriber: Please include address label with subscription inquiries or address changes.
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