Full text of National Economic Trends : July 1995

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JULY 1995

National
Economic
Trends
Did Big Tax Payments
and Late Tax Refunds
Decrease Consumption?
Nominal personal consumption expenditures grew
0.1 percent between March and April after growing
0.7 percent between February and March. Many ana­
lysts attributed this slowdown in consumption to a
large increase in personal income tax payments and
slower-than-usual tax refunds. Early this year, the IRS
was slow in issuing some refund checks, partly because
o f a new program implemented to reduce fraudulent
claims for tax refunds. According to one estimate, the
dollar value o f the delay reached $6 billion. At the
same time, personal tax payments in April were nearly
10 percent higher than the payments made in April o f
last year because o f lower deductions for mortgage in­
terest paid and payments for back taxes arising from
the Omnibus Reconciliation Act o f 1993.
Households, faced with large tax payments and
slow refunds, saw their disposable personal income
fall. (Disposable personal income is personal income
minus tax and non-tax payments.) Any increase
in tax payments or delay in tax refunds decreases dis­
posable personal income, but does not affect personal
income. So, if households consumed less to offset their
tax payments or slow refunds, the ratio o f consumption
to personal income would have fallen because con­
sumption would have declined while personal income
would have remained constant. In contrast, the ratio
o f consumption to disposable income would have
remained nearly unchanged because both quantities
would have fallen.
Households could have left their consumption un­
changed and absorbed the higher net tax payments by

reducing their savings. The ratio o f consumption to
personal income would then have remained constant,
but the ratio o f consumption to disposable personal
income would have risen because the tax payments
and slow refunds would have reduced their disposable
personal income.
As the graph below shows, between March and
April o f this year (the last data plotted), consumption
remained unchanged relative to personal income but
rose relative to disposable personal income. This con­
tradicts the story that higher taxes and slow tax refunds
lowered consumption. It does support the hypothesis
that households absorbed the tax payments and slow
refunds by saving less. In fact, personal saving fell
$50 billion between March and April, remarkably
close to the $54 billion increase in net tax payments
between the same two months.
— Peter Yoo

Consumption as a Percent of Income
Percent

1993

Percent

1994

1995

Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions o f the Federal Reserve System

National Econom ic Trends is published monthly by the Research Division o f the Federal Reserve Bank o f St. Louis. For more information on data, please
call (314) 444-8573. Single-copy subscriptions are available free o f charge by writing Research Division, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office
Box 442, St. Louis, M O 63166-0442 or by calling (314) 444-8808 or (314) 444-8809. Information in this publication is also included in the Federal Reserve


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Table o f Contents
Page
3-4
5-6
7-8
9
10
11
12-13
14
15
16-17
18-21
22
23
24
25-27

Nominal and Real Gross Domestic Product (G D P)
Price Deflators
Consumer and Producer Prices
Employment Costs
Productivity and Unit Labor Cost
Industrial Production
Employment and Unemployment
Real Personal Income
Retail Sales
Inventories and Final Sales
Components o f Real GDP
U.S. International Transactions
Gross Saving and Investment
Corporate Profits and Cash Flow
Government Budget Data

How to Use the Triangles in this Publication
This publication makes extensive use o f “triangles” to present compound annual rates o f change over various peri­
ods. Consider the simple, abbreviated triangle below for quarterly Real Gross Domestic Product from the first quar­
ter o f 1990 to the fourth quarter o f 1991. From this triangle, the reader can obtain rates o f change from any date on
the top row to any date along the left column; actual dollar figures for the periods in the left-most column are shown
in the right-most column. In our example, the compound annual rate of growth from 11/1990 to HI/I 991 can be
found at the intersection o f the n/1990 column and the IE/1991 row, a -0.6 percent rate; similarly, the annual rate of
change from 1/1990 to IV/1991 is -0.2 percent. Reading down the diagonal gives the growth rate from one quarter
to the next.

Real Gross Domestic Product
(C o m p o u n d A n n u a l Rates o f Change)
Term inal
Q uarter

B illio n s o f D ollars
A n n u a l Rates

In itia l Q uarter
1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-90

1.5

3-90

0.3

-0.9

4-90

-0.8

-2.0

-3.2

1-91

-1.1

-2.0

-2.6

-2.1

2-91

-0.5

-1.0

-1.0

0.0

2.2

3-91

-0.3

-0.6

-0.5

0.3

1.6

1.0

4-91

-0.2

-0.5

-0.4

0.3

1.1

0.5

4,917.1
4,906.5
4,867.2
4,842.0

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.




3-91

2-91

2

4,867.9
4,879.9
0.1

4,880.8

Gross Domestic Product
Seasonally Adjusted

Trillions of Dollars

Trillions of Dollars

Real GDP is measured using 1987 prices.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95

2-90 3-90 4-90
3.1
2.1
1.0
1.9
2.3
2.8
3.0
2.9
3.9
3.1
3.2
3.9
3.5
3.1
3.0
3.7
4.2
3.6
4.4
3.8
3.9
4.0
4.5
3.9
4.4
4.5
5.0
4.5
4.9
4.4
4.4
4.5
4.8
4.3
4.4
4.7
4.7
4.6
5.0
4.7
4.8
5.1
4.8
4.9
5.2
5.0
4.9
5.3
5.4
5.0
5.1
5.0
5.1
5.3

1-91 2-91

3-91 4-91

3.8
3.2
4.5
4.7
4.7
5.3
5.2
5.1
4.9
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.6
5.5

2.6
4.8
4.9
4.9
5.6
5.4
5.3
5.1
5.4
5.4
5.6
5.6
5.7
5.6

7.1
6.1
5.7
6.4
6.0
5.7
5.4
5.7
5.8
5.9
5.9
6.0
5.9

2-90 3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91

3-91

4-91

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

5,583.8
5,597.9
5.636.8
5,705.9
5,759.9
5,796.6
5.896.8
5,971.3
6.043.6
6,169.3
6,235.9
6,299.9
6,359.2
6,478.1
6,574.7
6,689.9
6.791.7
6,897.2

•
5.0
4.4
3.8
4.6
4.7
4.8
5.3
5.2
5.1
4.9
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.5
5.5

5.2
5.0
6.2
5.8
5.4
5.2
5.5
5.6
5.8
5.8
5.9
5.8

4.9
6.7
6.0
5.5
5.2
5.6
5.7
5.8
5.9
5.9
5.8

8.6
6.5
5.7
5.2
5.7
5.8
6.0
6.0
6.0
5.9

4.4
4.3
4.1
5.0
5.2
5.5
5.6
5.7
5.6

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

First quarter data are final estimates.




Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

4.2
4.0
5.2
5.4
5.8
5.9
5.9
5.8

3.8
5.7
5.9
6.2
6.2
6.2
6.0

7.7
6.9
7.0
6.8
6.7
6.4

6.1
6.6
6.5
6.5
6.1

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

7.2
6.7
6.6
6.1

6.2
6.3
5.8

6.4
5.5

4.7

6.977.4

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 3, 1995

3

Real Gross Domestic Product
Percent Change Prom Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1989

1990

1991

1992

Percent

1993

1 99 4

1995

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
— — — -Trend is ten-year moving average of real GDP growth rate
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Gross Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-90 4-90
-3.2
-2.6
-1.0
-0.5
-0.4
0.2
0.5
0.9
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.9
2.0

2 .0

2 .2

2.1

2.3
2.4
2.4

2 .2

2.3

-2.1
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.8
1.1
1.4
'2.0
0?

3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95

2-90
-0.9
-2.0
-2.0
-1.0
-0.6
-0.5
0.0
0.3
0.7
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.7
1.8

1.9
2.0
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.8
2.8

2-90 3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91

2.2
1.6
1.1
1.6
1.7
2.0
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.8
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.1

1.0
0.5
1.4
1.6
2.0
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.2
3.2

1-91 2-91

3-91 4-91

0.1
1.6
1.9
2.3
3.0
2.7
2.6
2.6
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.4
3.3

3.1
2.8
3.0
3.7
3.2
3.0
3.0
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.6

3-91 4-91

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

2.4
2.9
3.9
3.2
3.0
3.0
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.6

3.5
4.6
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.7

V,

5.7
3.4
3.1
3.0
3.6
3.6
3.7
3.7
3.9
3.7

1.2
1.8
2.1
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.6
3.5

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
First quarter data are final estimates.




Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

2.4
2.5
38
3.7
3.7
3.8
4.0
3.8

2.7
4.5
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.2
4.0

6.3
4.8
4.6
4.4
4.6
4.2

3.3
3.7
3.8
4.1
3.8

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

4.1
4.1
4.4
4.0

4.0
4.6
3.9

;

5.1
3.9

. ■

\ .

2.7

...............

4,906.5
4.867.2
4,842.0
4,867.9
4,879.9
4,880.8
4,918.5
4,947.5
4,990.5
5,060.7
5,075.3
5,105.4
5,139.4
5,218.0
5,261.1
5,314.1
5,367.0
5,433.8
5,470.1

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 3, 1995

4

Implicit Price Deflator for GDP
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1989

1990

1991

1992

Percent

1993

1994

1995

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Implicit Price Deflator
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95

2-90 3-90 4-90
4.0
4.1
4.3
4.4
4.6
5.0
4.0
4.0
3.9
3.7
3.7
3.5
3.6
3.5
3.3
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.0
3.2
3.1
3.0
3.2
3.1
3.0
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.6
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.7
2.5
2.6
2.5
2.6
2.6

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

2-90 3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91

2.8
2.8
2.8
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.3

initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
113.8
115.0
116.4
117.2

2.8
2.7
3.1
3.0
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.3

118.0
2.7
3.2
3.1
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.3

118.8
3.8
3.2
2.6
2.6
2.8
2.6
2.3
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.2

3-91 4-91

119.9
2.7
2.0
2.2
2.5
2.3
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.1

120.7
1.3
2.0
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.0
2.0

121.1
2.7
3.0
2.5
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.1

3.3
2.5
2.0
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.1
2.0
2 1

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

First quarter data are final estimates.




1987=100
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1.6
1.3
13
1.7
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.9

1.0
1.1
1.7
2.0
2.0
1.9
1.9

1.3
2.1
2.4
2.3
2.1
2.1

2.9
2.9
2.6
2.3
2.2

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

2.9
2.4
2.0
2.1

1.9
1.6
1.8

1.3
1.7

2.2

121.9
122.9
123.4
123.7
124.1
125.0
125.9
126.5
126.9
127.6

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 3 ,1 9 9 5

5

GDP Fixed Weight Deflator
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95

2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
5.1
4.3
3.5
4.6
4.4
5.3
4.2
4.3
4.0
3.1
4.0
3.8
3.8
3.1
3.1
2.7
3.8
3.6
3.6
3.0
2.9
3.6
3.2
3.2
3.7
3.8
3.6
3.2
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.2
3.2
3.5
3.3
3.6
3.4
3.4
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.3
3.6
3.4
3.4
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.4
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.6
3,2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.3
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.0
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.2
3.1
3.0
3.3
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.0
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.2
2.9
3.1
3.1
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.2
3.1
2.9
3 1 3.0
3.0
3.0
2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

3.4
3.0
3.0
3.2
3.1
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9

2.7
3.0
2.8
4.0
3.2
3.5
3.3
3.0
3.2
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

First quarter data are final estimates.

1987=100
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

2.6
2.3
1.9
2.4
2.2
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.7
2.9
2.6
2.9
3.0
2.6
2.7
2.7
3.0
2.9
2.9
2.7
2.7
2.9
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

3.2
3.0
2.9

2.8
2.8
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.1
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

114.3
115.3
116.8
117.7
118.6
119.4
120.5
121.5
122.3
123.2
124.4
125.2
125.8
126.6
127.5
128.5
129.4
130.3
131.3

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 3 ,1 9 9 5

Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95

2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
6.1
6.4
6.7
3.4
5.4
5.1
4.7
4.2
2.4
2.9
2.7
4.3
3.9
3.0
3.1
4.2
3.8
3.1
2.9
3.2
3.4
4.1
3.7
3.1
3.0
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.2
4.0
3.7
3.2
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.7
3.4
3.0
3.0
2.9
3.0
2.9
3.8
3.5
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.6
3.4
3.0
3,0
3.0
3.1
3.1
33
3.5
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.0
2.9
3.1
2,7
2.8
3.4
2.8
2.8 2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
3.3
3.1
2.8
2.6
2.6
3.1
2,6
2.9
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.7
2.6
2.6
3.1
2.9
2.6
2.5
2.7
3.0
2.7
3.1
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.6
3.1
2.9
2.6
2.6
2.5
3.0
2.6
2.9
2.6
26
2.5
26
2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
117.5
118.5
119.2
120.1
121.1
122.1

3.7
1.6
2.6
2.8
3.1
3.9
2.7
2,9
3.3
2.6
2.9
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.6
2.3
2.5
2.0
2.5
2.3
2.5
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.3
1.9
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.1
2.4
2.5
2.5
23
2.4
2.3
2.4
2.2
2.4
2.3
24
2,2
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

First quarter data are final estimates.




1987=100
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93
115.6

2.2
1.8
1.3
2.2
1.7
1.9
1.3
1.8
1.7
1.6
22
2.2
2.0
2.0
2.4
2.5
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.4
2.3
2,2
2,3
2.2
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

3.2
3.2
3.1
2.7
2.5
1.9
2.6
2.4
2.0
2.2
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

123.2
123.7
124.9
125.7
126.4
126.8
127.5
127.9
128.9
129.9
130.5
131.2

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 3 ,1 9 9 5

6

Consumer Price Index
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Consumer Price Index
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
10-93 11-93 12-93
11-93 2.5
12-93 2.5
2.5
1-94 1.9
1.7
0.8
2-94 2.3
2.2
2.1
3-94 2.3
2.3
2.2
4-94 2.3
2.3
2.3
5-94 2.2
2.2
2.1
6-94 2.5
2.5
2.5
7-94 2.6
2.6
2.6
2.9
8-94 2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
9-94 2.8
10-94 2.7
2.7
2.7
11-94 2.6
2.6
2.6
12-94 2.6
2.6
2.6
1-95 2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2-95 2.7
2.7
2.7
3-95 2.7
2.9
4-95 2.8
2.8
2.9
2.9
5-95 2.8
10-93 11-93 12-93




Initial Month
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95

1982-84=100
146.0
146.3

146.4
3.3
2.9
2.8
2.5
2.8
2.9
3.2
3.1
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.9
3.0
3.0

146.8
2.5
2.5
2.2
2.7
2.8
3.2
3.1
2.9
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.9
2.8
3.0
3.0

2.5
2.1
2.7
2.9
3.3
3.2
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.9
2.9
2.9
3.0
3.0

147.1
147.4
1.6
2.9
3.0
3.5
3.3
3.0
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.9
3.1
3.1

147.6
4.1
3.7
4.1
3.7
3.3
3.0
2.9
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.2
3.2

3.3
4.1
3.6
3.1
2.8
2.7
2.9
3.0
2.9
3.1
3.1

5.0
3.7
3.0
2.6
2.6
2.8
2.9
2.8
3.1
3.1

2.4
2.0
1.9
2.0
2.4
2.6
2.5
2.8
2.9

1.6
1.6
1.9
2.4
2.6
2.6
2.9
2.9

1.6
2.0
2.7
2.8
2.7
3.1
3.1

2.4
3.2
3.2
3.0
3.4
3.4

4.1
3.7
3.2
3.6
3.6

3.2
2.8
3.5
3.4

2.4
3.6
3.5

4.9
4.0

3.2

148.1
148.5
149.1
149.4
149.6
149.8
150.1
150.6
151.0
151.3
151.9
152.3

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 3, 1995

7

Producer Price Index - Finished Goods
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

8

-2

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Producer Price Index - Finished Goods
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
10-93 11-93 12-93
11-93 2.9
12-93 1.0 -1.0
1-94 2.6
2.4
5.9
4.4
2-94 2.7
2.6
3-94 2.1
1.9
2.9
2.2
4-94
1.8
1.6
1.6
5-94 1.4
1.1
6-94
1.3
1.1
1.5
1.7
1.3
7-94 1.5
1.9
2.3
8-94 2.0
1.4
1.6
9-94 1.5
10-94 1.0 0.8
1.0
1.4
11-94 1.5
1.6
1.6
1.8
12-94 1.7
1-95 1.9
1.9
2.1
2-95 1.9
1.9
2.1
3-95 1.8
1.7
1.9
4-95 2.0
2.2
2.0
5-95 1.9
2.0
1.9

Initial Month
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95

2.9
1.4
1.0
0.5
0.6
1.0
1.8
1.1
0.4
1.2
1.4
1.8
1.8
1.6
1.9
1.8

0.0
0.0
-0.3
0.0
0.6
1.6
0.8
0.1
1.0
1.2
1.7
1.7
1.5
1.8
1.7

0.0
-0.5
0.0
0.7
1.9
1.0
0.1
1.1
1.4
1.8
1.8
1.7
2.0
1.8

-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.4
1.2
0.2
1.2
1.6
2.0
2.0
1.8
2.2
2.0

1.0
1.9
3.6
1.7
0.4
1.6
1.9
2.4
2.4
2.1
2.4
2.2

2.9
4.9
1.9
0.2
1.7
2.1
2.6
2.5
2.2
2.6
2.4

6.9
1.4
-0.6
1.4
1.9
2.6
2.5
2.2
2.6

-3.7
-4.2
-0.3
0.7
1.7
1.8
1.5
2.0
1.8

-4.7
1.4
2.2
3.1
2.9
2.4
2.9
2.5

7.9
5.9
5.9
4.9
3.9
4.2
3.6

3.9
4.9
3.9
2.9
3.5
2.9

5.8
3.9
2.6
3.4
2.7

1.9
0.9
2.5
1.9

0.0
2.9
1.9

5.8
2.9
0.0
2.3
10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95




1982=100
124.4
124.3
124.9
125.2
125.2
125.2
125.1
125.2
125.5
126.2
125.8
125.3
126.1
126.5
127.1
127.3
127.3
127.9
127.9

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 3, 1995

8

Employment Cost Index and Its Components
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

B enefits
/X

f V

------ ^
N

/

-\

s

*

\
\

/

.....
S

Tcstal Compensa tion

N
>i

\
v / V

\

\

... *.

X «

V

wages and Salai ie s

V

"

\

> --------

k
/

X

1

1

1

1989

1

1

1990

1" 1

1.....

1991

i

\

.

\

1

._

^

-

^ ^ /

I

i

T

1992

|

>

1

1993

1

1

r .. 1

1994

t

1

1995

Total compensation is the sum of wages, salaries and benefits for private industry workers.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Employment Cost Index - Total Compensation
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95

2-90 3-90 4-90
4.3
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.2
4.6
4.4
4.4
4.7
4.3
4.3
4.5
4.3
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.2
4.3
4.1
4.1
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.8
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.6
3.6

1-91 2-91

2-90 3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91

4.9
4.5
4.3
4.2
4.0
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.5

3-91 4-91

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
106.2
107.2
108.4
109.7

4.1
4.1
4.0
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.4

110.8
4.0
4.0
3.6
3.4
3.5
3.8
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.3

111.9
4.0
3.4
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.3

3-91 4-91

113.0
2.9
2.9
3.2
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.2

113.8
2.8
3.4
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.3

114.6
3.9
4.1
3.9
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.3

4.2
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.2

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

Data are for the last month of quarter.




June 1989=100
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

3.5
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.1

3.4
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.1

3.4
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.0

3.0
3.2
3.2
3.1
2.9

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

3.4
3.3
3.1
2.9

3.3
3.0
2.7

2.6
2.5

2.3

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of
July 3, 1995

9

115.7
116.9
117.9
118.9
119.9
120.8
121.8
122.8
123.6
124.3

St.Louis

Business Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1989

1990

1991

1992

Percent

1993

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

1994

1995

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Business Sector - Output Per Hour
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal

3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95

1982=100

In itial Q u a r te r

Q u a r te r

2-90 3-90 4-90
-1.1
-1.1 -1.1
0.4
1.1
3.3
0.8
1.4
2.7
0.9
1.4
2.2
1.1
1.6
2.3
1.7
2.2
2.8
1.7
2.1
2.6
2.7
1.9 2.2
2.4
2.0
2.8
1.6
1.9
2.3
2.1
1.5
1.8
1.6
1.8
2.1
2.1
1.8
2.3
1.8
2.0
2.3
1.8
1.6
2.0
1.7
1.9
2.1
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.2
1.9
2.1

1-91 2-91

2-90 3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91

3-91 4-91

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
110.8

110.5
111.4
2.2
1.6
1.9
2.7
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.1
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.2
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.2

112.0
1.1
1.8
2.9
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.1
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.2
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.2

112.3
2.5
3.8
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.3
2.0
2.1
2.4
2.3
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3

113.0
5.0
3.4
3.3
3.4
2.3
1.9
2.0
2.4
2.3
1.9
2.1
2.2
2.2

3-91 4-91

114.4
1.8
2.5
2.8
1.6
1.3
1.5
2.0
1.9
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.0

3.2
3.3
1.5
1.2
1.5
2.0
2.0
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.0

3.5
0.7
0.6
1.0
1.8
1.8
1.3
1.6
1.9
1.9

-2.0
-0.9
0.2
1.4
1.4
1.0
1.3
1.7
1.7

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

Revised from 1990 to the present.




1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

0.3
1.4
2.5
2.3
1.6
1.9
2.2
2.2

2.4
3.6
3.0
1.9
2.2
2.5
2,5

4.9
3.3
1.7
2.1
2.5
2.5

1.7
0.2
1.2
1.9
2.0

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

-1.3
1.0
2.0
2.1

3.4
3.7
3.3

4.1
3.2

2.3

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
Prepared by Federal R eserve Bank
July 3, 1995

10

114.9
115.8
116.8
116.2
116.3
117.0
118.4
118.9
118.5
119.5
120.7
121.4

of St. Louis

Industrial Production
Seasonally Adjusted

1987-100

1987=100

125

125

120

115

110

105

100

I

1989

1990

1

1

I

95

r

1991

1992

1993

1995

1994

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Industrial Production
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
Initial Month
10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94
11-93 11.2
12-93 11.1 11.1
5.4
1-94 7.3
0.0
6.9
2-94 7.9
4.8
9.8
7.8
3-94 8.5
6.8 10.4 10.9
6.4
4-94 7.2
5.3
7.2
5.8
1.0
5-94 7.3
6.6
5.7
7.2
6.4
7.4
4.2
6-94 7.1
6.6
5.8
7.0
6.4
6.9
6.3
4.9
7-94 6.6
6.0
4.2
2.1
5.3
6.2
5.5
5.2
4.2
8-94 6.9
6.4
5.7
5.8
6.7
6.3
5.9
9.5
6.1
5.2
9-94 6.1
5.6
4.1
3.4
5.0
5.7
4.8
4.1 -1.0
5.1
4.2
10-94 6.0
5.6
4.9
4.3
3.9
5.0
5.6
4.5
5.1
4.3
2.0
5.2
11-94 6.2
5.8
5.3
5.0
4.7
5.3
5.9
4.8
5.4
5.5
4.1
6.7
8.3
12-94 6.8
6.4
6.5
6.5
6.1
6.7
6.4
6.4
5.9
7.3
6.7
9.4 11.6 14.9
1-95 6.5
6.2
5.9
5.9
6.4
6.1
5.6
5.9
6.1
6.5
8.6
8.8
5.9
7.8
2-95 6.2
5.2
5.6
5.4
5.9
5.5
5.9
5.6
5.3
5.7
6.7
6.1
5.1
6.4
4.5
4.9
3-95 5.7
5.4
5.0
5.4
5.0
4.6
4.9
4.0
4.4
4.7
4.1
4.9
4.2
3.6
4-95 5.0
4.6
4.5
4.1
3.9
3.5
2.9
1.8
3.4
3.3
2.7
3.2
3.8
3.7
3.2
4.2
4.0
3.3
5-95 4.5
3.0
2.0
1.0
2.7
2.7
2.0
2.4
10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94




1987=100
12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95

3.0
2.0
0.7
-1.2
-1.6

1.0
-0.5
-2.6
-2.7

-1.9
-4.3
-3.9

-6.7
-4.8

113.7
114.7
114.7
115.6
116.6
116.7
117.4
118.0
118.2
119.1
119.0
119.5
120.3
121.7
122.0
122.1
121.9
121.2
-2.9

120.9

12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 3, 1995

11

Civilian Employment and Unemployment Rate
Millions of Persons

Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
* Break in series. January 1994 figures reflect revised data collection procedures and are not directly
comparable with previous data.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Civilian Employment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Thousands of
Month
Initial Month
10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95
11-93 4.0
-RRFÆlK i n SEI) T T ? C
3.3
12-93 3.7
1-94 6.7
8.1 13.1
2-94 5.8
6.4
7.9
3.0
1.3 -0.5
3-94 4.5
5.1
4.6
4.4
1.6
2.4
4-94 4.1
4.2
1.0
4.1
2.0
2.7
5-94 4.0
4.0
3.0
1.6
3.3
1.4
1.1 -0.7
6-94 3.4
3.3
1.1
1.6
3.0
1.4
1.2
0.4
1.4
7-94 3.2
3.1
1.1
1.5
8-94 3.3
3.2
3.2
1.8
2.0
4.1
1.6
2.0
1.6
2.8
9-94 3.4
3.3
3.3
2.1
2.4
2.0
2.5
3.3
2.3
4.3
4.4
3.7
10-94 3.5
3.5
2.5
2.4
2.8
2.8
3.5
2.9
4.5
4.7
4.9
11-94 3.4
3.4
3.4
2.5
2.4
2.8
2.8
2.8
3.5
4.0
4.0
3.7
2 .6
2.4
3.2
12-94 3.3
3.2
3.2
2.3
2.6
2.7
2.6
3.5
3.4
1.6
2.1
3.0
3.1
2.2
2.2
2.4
2.4
2.4
2 .8
3.0
1-95 3.1
3.0
2 .8
0.7
2.4
1 .1
1 .6
2.7
2-95 3.2
3.2
3.2
2.4
2.4
2.7
2.6
3.1
3.3
3.2
2.9
2.7
2.4
2.3
4.8
3-95 3.1
3.1
2.4
2.5
2.9
3.1
3.0
2.3
2 .6
2.5
1.4
2.9
2.7
2 .2
2 .1
2.3
3.1
4-95 2.8
2.2
2.4
2.5
2.8
2.7
2.1
2.0
2.2
2.1
2.3
2.0
1.3
1.2
1.4 -0.3 -1.9
1.5
5-95 2.3
2.2
1.5
2 .1
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.5
1 .2
1.5
0 .8
1.3
-4.5 -7.0
0 .2
-2 .6
-0.1 -0.5 - 0 . 8
10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95




Persons
120,332
120,661
121,903
122,208
122,160
122,402
122,703
122,635
122,781
123,197
123,644
124,141
124,403
124,570
124,639
125,125
125,274
125,072
124,319

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
June 19,1995

12

Payroll Employment
Seasonally Adjusted

Millions of Persons

Millions of Persons

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Payroll Employment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
10-93 11-93 12-93
11-93 2.6
12-93 2.9
3.3
2.7
1-94 2.7
2.2
2-94 2.8
2.8
2.6
3.5
3-94 3.3
3.6
3.4
4-94 3.3
3.4
5-94 3.2
3.3
3.3
6-94 3.2
3.3
3.3
7-94 3.1
3.2
3.2
8-94 3.2
3.3
3.3
9-94 3.1
3.2
3.2
10-94 3.0
3.1
3.0
11-94 3.2
3.2
3.2
12-94 3.1
3.2
3.1
1-95 3.0
3.1
3.1
2-95 3.1
3.1
3.1
3-95 3.0
3.0
3.0
4-95 2.8
2.8
2.8
5-95 2.6
2.6
2.6

Thousands of
Initial Month
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94

3.0
4.3
3.8
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.1
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.0
2.8
2.6

5.6
4.3
3.8
3.7
3.4
3.5
3.4
3.2
3.4
3.3
3.1
3.2
3.1
2.8
2.6

3.0
3.0
3.1
2.9
3.0
3.0
2.8
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.6
2.4

3.0
3.1
2.9
3.1
3.0
2.8
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.6
2.3

3.3
2.8
3.1
3.0
2.8
3.2
3.0
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.6
2.2

2.4
3.0
2.9
2.6
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.5
2.2

3.6
3.1
2.7
3.3
3.1
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.5
2.1

2.7
2.2
3.2
2.9
2.7
2.8
2.7
2.3
2.0

1.8
3.5
3.0
2.8
2.9
2.7
2.3
1.9

Persons
1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95

5.3
3.7
3.1
3.1
2.9
2.4
1.9

2.1
2.0
1.9
2.4
2.6
3.3
2.4
2.3
2.6
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.7
0.9 -0.1
1.3
1.2
1.0 0.2 -0.6 -1.0
10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95

Revised from 1990 to the present.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 3, 1995

13

111,795
112,094
112,301
112,576
113,087
113,363
113.638
113,943
114,171
114,510
114,762
114,935
115,427
115,624
115,810
116,123
116,302
116,295
116,194

Real Personal Income
Trillions of Dollars

Seasonally Adjusted

Trillions of Dollars

Real incomes are computed using the personal consumption expenditure deflator (1987=100).
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Disposable Personal Income
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)

CO
in

Terminal
Billions of Dollars
Month
Initial Month
10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95
3.745.0
11-93 4.6
12-93 6.0
7.5
3,767.6
1-94 1.1 -0.6 -8.1
3,741.1
2-94 5.1
5.3
4.2 18.1
3,793.3
3-94 4.7
4.7
3.8 10.4
3.1
4-94 3.2
3.0
5.4 -0.4 -3.8
1.9
5-94 4.3
4.2
6.7
3.2 10.6
3.2
3.6
6-94 3.6
4.8 -0.6
3.5
5.2
2.2
1.9
2.8
7-94 3.4
2.7
2.1
0.5
3.3
4.6
1.8
3.8
1.6
8-94 3.5
1.7
4.2
3.4
2.4
2.3
3.9
2.9
2.9
4.5
9-94 3.7
2.7
3.2
4.7
3.6
3.9
5.1
2.9
2.9
4.3
10-94 4.7
4.7
4.7
5.4
6.9
8.7 11.1 16.5
4.5
6.0
4.5
6.2
11-94 4.2
4.1
4.1
3.8
5.1
3.8
3.8
5.0
5.0
5.9
6.5
6.8 -2.2
12-94 4.5
4.5
5.4
4.2
5.4
4.7
6.4
8.4
4.2
4.3
5.6
6.9
7.3
3.0
4.4
1-95 4.4
4.2
4.2
4.3
5.3
5.2
5.3
6.0
3.9
4.6
6.3
6.4
6.1
3.3
4.4
4.1
2-95 4.4
4.1
5.1
4.2
5.1
5.6
5.9
5.2
3.7
5.1
4.5
5.8
3.3
3.5
3-95 4.4
4.3
4.1
5.1
4.1
4.2
5.0
5.0
5.4
4.4
5.5
3.5
4.9
3.8
3.8
4-95 3.3
3.2
2.9
3.7
2.8
2.7
3.3
2.7
3.0
3.1
3.0
2.6
0.4
1.0 -0.8 -2.3
3.7
3.4
3.2
4.0
3.1
3.1
3.1
5-95 3.5
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.3
1.5
0.9
0.2
10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95
Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.




Annual Rates
2-95 3-95 4-95

3,803.1
3,790.9
3.822.9
3,820.9
3,826.0
3,839.2
3,857.6
3,907.0
3,899.9
3,926.1
3,938.6
3,950.0
4.0
-5.1 -13.4
-0.9 -3.3

8.1

3,962.9
3,915.7
3.941.1

2-95 3-95 4-95

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 3, 1995

14

Retail Sales
Billions of Dollars

Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of Dollars

The CPI is used to deflate retail sales data (1982—84—100).
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Retail Sales
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)

!^

Terminal
Month
Initial Month
10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94
11-93 6.7
9.1
12-93 7.9
1-94 0.6 -2.3 -12.6
2-94 5.8
5.5
3.8 23.2
3-94 7.3
7.5
7.0 18.3 13.6
4-94 5.3
5.0
4.3 -4.3
4.0 10.2
5-94 4.0
6.7
1.7 -3.7 -3.2
3.6
2.5
6-94 4.5
4.2
3.2 -0.0
3.4
6.9
2.2
7.9
7-94 3.6
3.3
5.2
1.9 -0.8
2.4
2.2 -3.2
0.4
8-94 4.6
4.4
4.9 13.6
3.8
6.3
3.8
5.9
1.9
3.5
9-94 4.8
5.6 10.3
4.6
6.4
6.2
7.0
4.1
4.2
2.7
4.2
7.4 11.2
10-94 5.5
5.4
9.9
7.1
7.5
5.0
5.3
4.1
5.6
6.4
8.9
7.4
11-94 5.2
4.7
5.2
6.6
5.0
6.6
3.9
12-94 4.8
5.1
6.9
5.3
4.6
4.4
5.5
4.3
6.0
4.4
3.4
4.5
1-95 4.6
4.6
6.0
4.4
5.0
4.1
5.6
4.1
3.2
4.1
1.7
2-95 3.5
4.2
2.7
2.5
3.3
3.3
2.9
2.4
1.8
3.1
2.3
3-95 3.6
4.3
3.0
3.6
3.4
3.1
2.1
2.9
2.7
3.3
2.1
3.4
0.9
4-95 2.9
2.7
2.3
1.3
1.7
2.2
1.7
2.2
1.9
5-95 2.7
2.5
2.1
3.1
1.1
1.9 0.7
1.6
2.0
1.4
10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94
Dollars are measured using the CPI (1982-84= 100)




Billions of Dollars
9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95
1

122.030
122.921
121.553
123.681
125.005
124.543

i-

124.211

12.9
7.5
4.7
3.9
0.7
1.5
0.0
-0.1

2.4
0.8
1.1
-2.2
-0.6
-2.0
-1.8

-0.7
0.5
-3.6
-1.4
-2.8
-2.5

1.7
-5.1 -11.4
-1.6 -3.2
-3.4 -5.0
-2.8 -3.9

5.8
-1.6
-1.3

-8.5
-4.6

-0.6

9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 3, 1995

15

124.999
124.663
125.997
126.712
128.003
128.251
128.176
128.353
127.065
127.662
126.722
126.659

Total Business Inventory/Sales Ratio
Seasonally Adjusted

Ratio

Ratio

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Inventories and Sales
(Billions of Dollars)

M anufa ctu rin g
Period
1992
1993
1994

R etail Trade

T otal B usiness(3)

Shipments (1)
2931.95
3100.14
3364.60

Inventories (2)
379.24
377.43
391.81

Sales (1)
1944.61
2072.61
2233.73

Inventories (2)
251.99
267.68
290.02

Sales (1)
6720.25
7113.59
7671.33

1994
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

278.57
275.49
288.08
286.13
283.98
291.19
296.05

383.11
386.65
387.01
386.53
388.06
389.99
391.81

185.12
185.13
187.86
189.31
191.49
192.12
192.39

278.95
276.49
283.52
287.25
288.67
289.99
290.02

634.57
631.79
652.89
651.40
653.12
661.90
671.28

884.89
889.41
897.79
902.12
908.57
913.83
916.55

1995
January
February
March
April
May

297.79
298.56
298.44
295.64
N.A.

396.10
399.73
402.08
404.62
N.A.

193.30
191.87
193.15
192.49
192.90

294.30
296.00
297.20
298.88
N.A.

673.92
675.48
674.80
672.25
N.A.

928.67
936.09
942.74
949.86
N.A.




Inventories
838.90
860.98
916.55

1. Annual data are sums of monthly shipments/sales.
2. Annual data are end-of-year stocks.
3. Total business is the sum of manufacturing, retail trade and merchant wholesalers.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

16

Real Final Sales and Real GDP
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent

Percent

Real final sales and real GDP are measured using 1987 prices.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Final Sales
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

-0.6
-1.5
-0.4
-0.5
-0.5
0x4
0.6
0.9
14
1.3
1.4
15
1.9

2-90 3-90 4-90

1.8
0.5
0.2
1.4
1.4
1.7
2.3
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.6
2.8
2.8

-0.8
-0.5
1.2
1.3
1.7
2.4
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.6
2.9
2.8

-0.2
2.3
2.0
2.4
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.6
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.9
3.1
3.1

4.8
3.1
3.2
3.8
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.4
3.3
3.1
3.2
3.4
3.4

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

1.5
2.5
3.5
2.7
2.6
2.7
3.2
3.1
2.9
3.1
3.3
3.2

3.5
4.5
3.1
2.9
3,0
3.5
3.3
3.1
3,2
3.5
3,4

5.6
2.9
2.7
2.8
3.5
3.3
3.1
3.2
3.5
3.4

0.2
1.3
1.9
3.0
2.9
2.6
2.9
3.2
3.1

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
First quarter data are final estimates.




2.4
2.8
4.0
3.5
3.1
3.3
3.7
3.5

3.2
4.8
3,9
3.3
3.5
3.9
3.7

6.4
4.3
3.4
3.6
4.0
3.8

2.2
1.8
2.6
3.4
3.2

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1.5
cq

1.9
1.9
2,1
2.3
2.3

-2.4
-0.3
-0.5
-0.4
0.6
0.8
1.1
1.7
1.5
1.6
1.7
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.4
2.5

os
<N

3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95

2-90
0.5
-0.0
-0.8
-0.2
-0.3
-0.3
0.4
0.6
0.9
1.3
12
1.3
1.5
1.8
1.8
18
2.0
2.2
2.2

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

3.8
3.5

5.0
4.2

5.7
4.1

2.6

4,895.6
4,888.0
4,858.4
4,879.8
4,869.5
4,867.3
4,924.8
4,943.2
4,985.3
5,054.1
5,056.8
5,086.5
5,126.5
5,207.2
5,235.7
5,254.9
5,310.0
5,384.4
5.419.0

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 3, 1995

17

Components of Real GDP Growth Rate
1- 95
Real GDP

2.70

4-94

3-94

2-94

4.04

5.07

1 -94

4.09

Components

4-93

3-93

2-93

3.35

6.26

2.69

2.39

(!)

Final Sales

2.57

5.66

4.21

1.47

2.20

6.43

3.17

2.36

Change in Business
Inventories

0.13

-0.57

-0.16

2.59

1.12

-0.17

-0.46

0.03

Expenditures

1.06

3.39

2.04

0.88

3.11

2.67

2.61

1.75

Fixed Investment
Nonresidential
Residential

2.47

2.22

1.40

1.40

1.67

3.38

1.70

1.31

2.63

2.12

1.67

1.09

1.26

2.30

1.33

1.64

-0.15

0.10

-0.27

0.30

0.41

1.05

0.37

-0.32

Government Purchases

-0.13

-0.73

1.13

-0.21

-0.89

-0.02

0.20

0.22

-0.24

-0.97

0.66

-0.53

-0.72

-0.35

-0.21

-0.26

0.11

0.25

0.46

0.31

-0.16

0.33

0.41

0.48

-0.84

0.74

-0.39

-0.59

-1.66

0.32

-1.33

-0.92

0.61

2.36

1.71

1.86

-0.43

2.35

-0.38

0.87

-1.44

-1.59

-2.08

-2.41

-1.24

-1.99

-0.94

-1.78

Personal Consumption

Federal
State and Local
Net Exports
Exports
Imports

(1) Contribution of each component to the compound annual rate of real GDP growth in each quarter indicated.
Elements may not sum to the total due to rounding.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Personal Consumption Expendi tures
(Compound A nnu al R a te s o f C h an ge)
Termina
Quarter
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95

2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
2.1
-0.3 -2.7
-1.2 -2.7 -2.8
-0.4 -12 -0.4
2.1
-0.0 -0.6
0.2
1.3
1.7
-0.1 -0.6 -0.0
0.9
0.4 -0.5
0.7
0.5
1.1
2.1
2.1
2.6
5.8
0.8
0.6
1.2
2.0
3.7
2.0
2.3
1.2
1.0
1.6
2.3
2.4
2.7
3.8
1.6
1.5
2.1
4.2
2.8
2.9
3.3
1.6
1.5
2.0
2.7
3.7
2.7
3.0
1.7
1.6
2.1
2.6
2.7
2.9
3.5
1.8
1.8
2.3
2.8
2.8
3.0
3.6
2.0
2.0
2.4
2.9
3.0
3.2
3.6
2.2
2.2
2.6
3.0
3.1
3.3
3.7
2.1
2.1
2.5
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.5
2.2
2.5
2.9
3.0
2.2
3.1
3.5
2.7
3.0
3.1
2.3
2.4
3.3
3.6
3.0
3.0
3.1
2.6
3.4
2.3
2.3
2-90 3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91

3-91 4-91

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
3,288.4
3,265.9
3.242.9
3,259.5
3.269.8
3,265.3
3,311.4

17

2.8
3.7
3.2
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.5
3.2
3.2
3.4
3.2

3.9
4.7
3.7
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.4
3.4
3.6

5.6
3.6
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.7
3.4
3.3
3.5
3.3

1.6
2.1
2.7
3.0
3.3
3.0
3.0
3.3
3.1

3.4
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
First quarter data are final estimates.




Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates

2.6
3.2
3.5
3.8
3.3
3.2
3.5
3.3

3.9
3.9
4.2
3.4
3.4
3.7
3.4

4.0
4.3
3.3
3.2
3.6
3.3

4.7
3.0
3.0
3.5
3.1

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1.3
2.2
3.1
2.8

3.1
4.1
3.2

5.1
3.3

3,325.4
3,357 6
3,403.4
3,417.2
3,439.2
3,472.2
3,506.2
3,546.3
3,557.8
3,584.7
3,629.6
3.643.9
1.6

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 3 ,1 9 9 5

18

Real Residential Fixed Investment
(Compound Annual R a te s o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95

2-90
-22.1
-23.2
-23.7
-17.9
-12.1
-8.0
-4.2
-1.2

3-90 4-90

-24.3
-24.5
-16.5
-9.4
-4.9
-0.8
2.2
-1.0 2 1
4.3
1.3
4.4
16
3.2
0.8
3.7
1.5
5.4
3.2
3.6
5.8
5.8
3.8

-24.8
-12.3
-3.8
0.7
4.7
7.5
6.5
8.5
8.2
6.5
6.8
8.4
8.5
8.4
7.4
3.2
5.1
7.0
3.2
4.9
6.4
2.8
44
2-90 3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91

3-91 4-91

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
.<
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

2.2
8.7 15.6
10.9 15.6 15.6
13.7 17.8 18.9 22.4
15.4 19.0 20.2 22.6 22.7
12.9 15.1 15.0 14.8 11.2 0.8
14.4 16.5 16.7 17.0 15.3 11.7 23.8
13.2 14.9 14.7 14.6 12,7 9.5 14,2 5.3
10.7 11.8 11.2 10.5 8.3
5.0
6.4 -1.3 -7.6
10.6 11.5 11.0 10.4 8.5
5.9
7.2
2.1
0.6
12.0 13.1 12.8 12.5 11.1 9.3 11.1 8.1
9.0
11.9 12.8 12.5 12.2 11.0 9.4 10.9 8.5 9.3
11.5 12.3 12.0 11.6 10.5 9.1 10.3 8.2
8.8
8.7
10.1 10.8 10.4 9.9
7.3
8.1
6.1
6.2
9.6 10.1 9.7
9.3
8.1
6.8
7.5
5.6
5.6
8.7
7.1
9.2
8.7
8,2
5.8
6.3
4.5
4.4
1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93

j.

Annual Rates

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
189.0
176.3
164.2
165.1
171.2
177.5
186.7

9.4
18.4
15.5
13.3
9.2
8.0
6.3
2-93

196.5
196.9
207.7
210.4
206.3
211.0
224.5
28.2
229.9
18.7 10.0 ............... :..............................
233.8
14.7 8.5
7.0
230.2
9.1
3.4
0.3 -6.0
231.5
7.7
3.1
0.9 -2.0 2.3
229.5
5.8
1.8 -0.2 -2.4 -0.6 -3.4
3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
First quarter data are final estimates.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 3 ,1 9 9 5

Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment
(Compound Annual R a te s o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95

2-90
5.0
-1.6
-5.4
-4.8
-4.4
-4.7

3-90 4-90

-7.7
-10.2
-7.9
-6.7
-6.5
-4.0 -5.4
-1.8 -2.8
-1.1 -1.8
-0.3 -0.8
1.0
0.7
2.2
1.9
2.9
2.7
4.1
4.1
4.6
4.5
4.8
4.8
5.4
5.4
6.1
6.0
6.9
6.8
2-90 3-90

1-91 2-91

-12.7
-7.9 -3.0
-6.3 -3.0
-6.2 -3.9

3-91 4-91




Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

-3.0
-4.4

-5.7
-5.0 -2.9 -2.9 -2.9
-1.9 0.4
1.3
2.7
1.1
2.0
-1.0
3.3
0.1
2.0
2.9
4.1
1.6
3.6
4.6
5.9
3.0
4.9
5.9
7.2
3.8
5.6
6.6
7.8
5.1
6.9
7.9
9.2
5.5
7.2
8.2
9.4
7.4
5.8
8.3
9.4
8.7
6.3
7.8
9.7
8.5
9.3 10.3
7.0
7.8
9.2 10.1 11.1
4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
First quarter data are final estimates.

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

-0.1
7.2
6.4
6.7
8.3
9.5
9.9
11.2
11.2
11.0
11.3
11.8
12.5
4-91

15.0
9.9
9.1
10.6
11.6
11.7
13.0
12.7
12.3
12.5
12.9
13.6
1-92

5.0
6.2
9.1
10.7
11.0
12.6
12,4
12.0
12.2
12.7
13.5
2-92

7.5
11.3
12.7
12.6
14.2
13.7
13.0
13.1
13.6
14.4
3-92

15.1
15.4
14.3
16.0
14.9
13.9
14.0
14.4
15.2
4-92

15.6
13.9
16.2
14.9
13.7
13.8
14.3
15.2
1-93

12.2
16.5
14.6
13.2
13.4
14.1
15.1
2-93

21.1
15.9
13.6
13.7
14.5
15.6
3-93

10.9
10.0 9.2
11.4
12.9 13.6 15.9 17.6
14.6 15.5 17.7 19.6 21.5
4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

551.2
540.2
522.2
518.3
514.4
506.9
506.8
524.8
531.2
540.9
560.3
581.0
597.9
627.2
643.6
657.9
708.2
743.6

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 3, 1995

Real Government Purchases of Goods and Services
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-90 3-90 4-90
-0.6
2.6
5.8
4.4
3.0
2.7
2.1
3.1
1.7
0.9
1.3 -0.2
0.4 -0.8
0.3
0.4
0.6 -0.4
0.0
0.1 -0.8
0.4
0.5 -0.2
0.4
0.5 -0.1
-0.2 -0.1 -0.8
-0.0
0.0 -0.6
0.1 -0.4
0.0
0.0
0.1 -0.4
-0.3 •0.3 -0.7
-0.4 -0.3 -0.8
0.1 -0.3
0.0
-0.2 -0.2 -0.5
-0.2
-0.6
2-90 3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91

0.5
-1.7
-2.1

-3.9
-3.4

-1.2
-1.6

-1.8
-2.1
-1.0
-0.5 -0.7
-1.2 -1.5
-1.0 -1.1
-0.7 -0.9
-0.7 -0.8
-1.1 -1.2
-1.1 -1.2
-0,5 -0.6
-0.8 -0.9
-0.8 -0.9
1-91 2-91

CO
?

3*90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95

3-91 4-91

-2.9
-0.7
1.5
-1.5 -0.8
-0.3
0.6
-0.1
0.7
-1.1 -0.7
-0.7 -0.4
-0.5 -0.2
-0.5 -0.2
-0,9 -0.7
-0.9 -0.7
-0.3 -0.1
-0.6 -0.4
-0,6 -0.5
3-91 4-91

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

-3.0
0.1
0.4
-1.2
-0.7
-0.4
-0.4
-1.0
-1.0
-0.2
-0.6
-0.6
1-92

3.4
2.1
-0.6
-0.2
0.1
0.1
-0.7
-0.7
0.1
-0.4
-0.4
2-92

0.9
-2.5
-1.3
-0.7
-0.6
-1.3
-1.3
-0.3
-0.8

-5.9
-2.4
-1.2
-1.0
-1.8
-1.7
-0.5
-1.0

3-92 4-92

Dollars are m easured using 1987 prices.
First quarter data are final estimates.

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
929.2
942.4
949.5
950.6
941.3
934.4
937.8
930.7
938.5
940.6
926.5
929.3

1.2
1.1
0.7
-0.7
-0.8
0.4
-0.3

1.1
0.5
-1.3
-1.3
0.2
-0.5
-0.5
1-93 2-93

-0.1
-2.5 -4.9
-2.1 -3.1
0.0
0.1
-0.8 -1.0
-0.8 -0.9
3-93 4-93

-1.2
2.6
0.3

6.7
1.1 -4.1
0.5 -2.5 -0.7
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

931.8
931.5
919.9
917.1
932.0
922.2
920.5

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 3, 1995

Real Federal Purchases of Goods and Services
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
Ï-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95

2-90
-5.2
0.9
3.7
2.4
-0.2
-1.8
-1.8
-2.2
-1.0
-0.8
-2.2
-2.3
-2.4
-2.6
-3.1
-3.4
-2.6
-3.3
-3.4
2-90

3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91

3-91 4-91

7.5
8.4
9.3
5.1
4.0 -1.1
1.1 -1.0 -5.8 -10.2
-1.2 -3.2 -7.1 -9.9 -9.5
-1.2 -2.8 -5.6 -7.1 -5.5 -1.3
-1.7 -3.2 -5.5 -6.5 -5.3 -3.1
-0.5 -1.6 -3.3 -3.7 -2.0 0.7
-0.3 -1.2 -2.7 -2.9 -1.4
0.8
-1.9 -2.9 -4.3 -4.8 -3.9 -2.7
-2.1 -3.0 -4.3 -4.7 -3.8 -28
-2.2 *3.0 -4.1 -4,5 -3.7 -2.9
-2.4 -3.2 -4.2 -4.5 -3.9 -3.1
-3.0 -3.7 -4.7 -5.1 -4.5 -3.9
-3.3 -4.0 -5.0 -5.3 -4.8 -4.4
-2.5 -3.1 -3.9 -4.1 -3.6 -3.1
-3.2 -3.8 -4.7 -4.9 -4.5 -4.1
-3.2 -3.8 -4.6 -4.8 -4.4 -4.0
3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

-4.8
1.7
1.5
-3.0
-3.1
-3.1
-3.4
-4.3
-4.7
-3.2
-4.3
-4.3
1-92

8.6
4.8
-2.4
-2.7
-2.8
-3.1
-4.2
-4.7
-3.1
-4.3
-4.2
2-92

1.1
-7.5 -15.4
-6.2 -9.7
-5.4 -7.5
-5.3 -6.9
-6.2 -7.6
-6.4 -7.6
-4.4 -5.2
-5.6 -6.4
-5.4 -6.1
3-92 4-92

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.

-3.0
-4.0
-6.1
-6.6
-3.3
-5.3
-5.1
2-93

-5.0
-7.7 -10.3
-7.8 -9.1
-3.4 -2.9
-5.7 -5.9
-5.4 -5.5
3-93 4-93

-7.9
1.1 10.9
-4.4 -2.6 -14.4
-4.2 -3.0 -9.3 -3.8
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of

First quarter data are final estimates.




-3.6
-3.S
-3.9
-5.5
-6.0
-3.4
-5.0
-4.9
1-93

Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

July 3,1995

20

379.6
386.5
395.2
394.1
383.6
374.1
372.9
368.3
376.0
377.0
361.6
358.3
355.6
351.1
341.7
334.7
343.5
330.4
327.2

St. Louis

Real Exports
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
-1.9
3.7
9.6
4.1 -1.1
6.4
9.4
9.3 20.7
7.1
0.6
5.2
6.3 10.2
7.0 13.7
8.4
8.1 11.4
6.6
6.7
6 1
7.7 10.0
9.8
6.5
8.0
3.8
1.5
5.3
7.0
8.3
5.9
7.1
6.6
3.4
6.6
5.3
5.3
4.3
78
5.8
6.4
6.8
6.7
7.2
5.0
4.6
6.2
7.7
5.6
6.0
6.9
6.5
4.7
3.8
3.2
3,0 -1.0
5.4
3.8
6.5
5.3
6.1
5.7
7.7
3.2
6.7
5.0
5.7
4.4
4.1
4.7
4.6
6.2
5.5
5.9
' . y
1.0 2.1 -3.2
3.3
2.8
2.5
4.5
5.6 4.1
5.4
5.0
4.8
8.2
21.7
5.8
8.5
5.4
5.3
6.1
5.7
6.3
6.0
6.3
7.0
6.6
5.9
3.9
52
4,3
8.3 ♦3.5
4.2
5.3 4.4
4.6
44
5.5
6.1
4.8
5.3
5.8
7.4
6.1 16 6
5.9
7.3 11 0
6.3
6.9
6.3
55
5.5
6.0
6.1
5.9
6.5
5.8
8.9 15.7 14,8
6.4
6.9
7.2
7.1
8.6
8,7 12.0
6.4
6.8
74
6.4
7,0
6.4
7.0
7.4
76
8.2
8.5
8 7 10.2 10 6 13.6 11.6 17.2 17.5 20.2
8.2
7.4
7.7
7.6
79
7.2
4.8
9.7 12.1 10.2 14.0 13 1 12.3
8.3
9.5
7.3
79
8.2
7.4
8.0
7.2
7.7
7.2
7.6
7.0
2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
03

to

3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95

508.6
520.4
519.0
544.0
544,8
562.6
571.0
573.1
580.5
590.7
589.2
600.2
595.3
625.2
619.6
643.9
666.5
697.9
706.2

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 3, 1995

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
First quarter data are final estimates.

Real Imports
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95

2-90 3-90 4-90
0.5
-4.4 -9.1
-7.1 -10.7 -12.2
-2.1 -3.0
0.2
0.3
0.2
3.5
1.1
1.2
4.0
1.9 2.1
4.5
3.2
3.6
5.9
3.8
4.2
6.2
4.0
4.4
6.3
4.7
5.1
6.9
5.5
6.0
7.6
5.7
7.6
6.1
6.4
6.8
8.3
6.6
8.4
7.0
7.3
9.1
7.8
7.8
8.2
9.5
8.0
9.6
8.4
8.1
9.7
8.5
2-90 3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91

3-91 4-91

14.4
12.4 10.4
10.0
7.9
5.4
9.2
7.5
6,6
6.0
9.9
8.8
8.3
9.8
9.7
8,7
8.3
9.3
9.2
8.4
8.0
8.6
9.5
8.8
9.2
8.6
10.1
9.4 10.1
9.6
9.8
9.7
9.3
9.2
10.4 10.0
9.9 10.5
10.3
9.9
9.9 10.4
10.9 10.6 10.7 11.2
11.3 11.0 11.1 11.6
11.3 11.1 11.1 11.6
11.2 11 0 11.0 11.5
1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

13.0
10.7 8.4
7.4
9.3
6.5
9.9
8.8
9.0 11.6
10.8 10.3 10.9 13.2 14.9
9.7 10.0 11.2 11.1
10.2
7.4
11.1 10.7 11.2 12.4 12.7 11.6
10.9 10.6 10.9 11.8 11.9 10.9
11 7 11.6 12.0 13.0 13.2 12.8
12.1 120 12.5 13.3 13.6 13.4
12.0 11.9 12.4 13.1 13.3 13.1
11.9 11,8 12 1 12.8 12.9 12.6
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
First quarter data are final estimates.




Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

16.0
9.5
12.7
14.7 14.1 18.9
15.0 14.6 17,2 15.6
14.2 13.8 15.3 13.5 11.4
13.5 13.0 14,0 12.4 10.8 10.1
3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

570.7
557.2
539.4
557.8
571.8
579.4
588.8
607.1
619.4
629.3
646.8
669.6
681.6
707.4
723.6
755.6
783.5
805.0
824.6

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Julv 3. 1995

21

Trade and Current Account Balances
Current Prices
Billions of Dollars

1 9 8 9

Billions of Dollars

1 9 9 0

1 9 9 1

1 9 9 2

1 9 9 3

1 9 9 4

1 9 9 5

The goods and services trade balance and the current account are for the current plus 3 previous
quarters until 1993. Since 1993, the goods and services trade balance uses the current plus
previous 11 months.
Shotted area repreeents a period of bueinese recession.

prepared by Federal Resen« Bank of St. Louie

U.S. International Transactions
(Millions of Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted)

1-95

4-94

3-94

2-94

188,897

184,873

178,274

171,823

1-94

4-93

3-93

2-93

166,422

158,613

161,065

30,412

29,931

29,958

Ex po rts
G o o d s and S e rv ic e s
Incom e R e ce ip ts on U .S. A s s e ts A broad

38,307

42,511

36,031

32,338

166,231
30,942

Imports
G o o d s and S e rv ic e s

-218,920 -212,340 -207,081 -198,746 -189,247 -186,912 -180,601 -179,858
-45,209

-42,878

-38,564

-34,623

-30,826

-30,376

-26,741

-27,893

B a la n ce on C urrent A c c o u n t

-40,503

-43,277

-39,714

-37,986

-30,271

-31,176

-27,032

-24,337

C h a n g e in U .S. A s s e t s A b ro a d

-63,951

-55,156

-27,940

-5,973

-36,783

-77,657

-46,270

-40,933

-5,318

2,033

-165

3,537

-59

-673

-545

822

-58,656

-56,258

-27,492

-10,001

-37,125

-76,666

-45,529

-41,474

85,080

84,715

79,736

46,526

80,390

99,458

77,928

51,277

21,336

-421

19,691

9,162

10,977

24,311

19,386

17,495

58,542

33,782

Incom e Paym ents on F oreig n A s s e ts in the U.S.

U.S. O fficial R e se rve A s s e ts
U.S. Private A s s e ts

C h a n g e in F oreig n A s s e ts in the U.S.
Foreign O fficial A s s e ts
Other F o re ig n A s s e ts

63,744

85,136

60,045

37,364

69,413

75,147

Note: Negative values indicate dollar outflows from the United States.
Revised from 1983 to the present.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

22

Gross Saving as a Percent of GDP
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Total saving equals private saving (personal saving plus business saving) plus government surplus or deficit.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Saving and Investment
(Billions of Dollars and Percent of GDP)

Gross Saving

Gross Private Saving

Gross Private
Domestic Investment
0/ ,

U.S. Net
Foreign Investment
$ Billion

% of GDP

15.2
15.1
14.6
13.5

-80.3
-73.8
-92.1
-67.7

-1.5
-1.3
-1.6
-1.2

732.8
733.1
756.5
756.8

13.0
12.8
13.1
13.1

55.8
17.6
-22.2
-18.8

1.0
0.3
-0.4
-0.3

16.6
16.4
16.6
15.5

747.7
787.9
795.5
822.0

12.7
13.2
13.2
13.3

-26.6
-54.1
-59.9
-85.6

-0.5
-0.9
-1.0
-1.4

1022.0
986.6
989.9
1011.4

16.4
15.7
15.6
15.6

853.8
869.7
882.2
922.5

13.7
13.8
13.9
14.2

-68.3
-88.9
-98.8
-113.2

-1.1
-1.4
-1.6
-1.7

13.5
13.8
13.6
13.8

1037.3
1041.4
1052.7
1082.7

15.8
15.6
15.5
15.7

966.6
1034.4
1055.1
1075.6

14.7
15.5
15.5
15.6

-116.4
-135.1
-153.6
-167.7

-1.8
-2.0
-2.3
-2.4

14.4

1126.4

16.1

1107.8

15.9

-160.4

-2.3

Period

$ Billion

% of GDP

$ Billion

% Of GDP

$ Billion

1990:1

2
3
4

735.5
765.9
705.5
683.8

13.5
13.8
12.6
12.2

867.4
888.5
825.5
863.1

15.9
16.0
14.8
15.4

828.9
837.8
812.5
756.4

1991:1
2
3
4

798.8
744.5
722.1
740.1

14.2
13.0
12.5
12.8

933.2
937.3
917.9
960.7

16.6
16.4
15.9
16.6

1992:1
2
3
4

719.1
722.3
731.9
718.5

12.2
12.1
12.1
11.6

979.1
981.2
1005.3
957.5

1993:1
2
3
4

760.1
775.0
788.9
825.8

12.2
12.3
12.4
12.7

1994: 1
2
3
4

886.2
923.3
922.6
950.3

1995:1

1006.0

Note: Gross Saving equals Gross Private Domestic Investment plus U.S. Net Foreign Investment minus a statistical discrepancy.
U.S. Net Foreign Investment is the excess of U.S. investment abroad over foreign investment in the U.S..




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

23

Corporate Profits After-Tax
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-90
-54.1
-29.8
-5.6
-3.0
-4.1
-2.0
0.6
-0.5
-5.3
2.1
1.8
3.8
5.8
7.1
5.0
6.4
6.2
5.6
5.6

3-90 4-90
7.4
35.4
24.6
15.2
14.1
14.7
11.1
3.7
11.6
10.2
11.8
13.4
14.3
11.4
12.5
11.9
10.9
10.7

70.7
34.1
18.0
15.9
16.2
11.7
3.2
12.1
10.5
12.2
14.0
14.9
11.8
12.9
12.2
11.2
10.8

2-90 3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

5.4
-1.9
1.8
5.5
2.6
-5.1
5.6
4.7
7.1
9.5
10.8
7.9
9.3
8.9
8.0
7.9

1-93

-8.7
0.1
9.7
5.6 13.6 17.6
2.0
3.9 -8.2
5.8
-7.1 -6.7 -11.5 -23.3
8.7
8.5
5.6
5.6
4.6
7.0
6.4
3.8
7.3
9.9
9.9
8.4
9.9 12.5 12.9 12.2
11.4 13.9 14.4 14.0
10.0 10.0 9.1
9.7 11.5 11.7 11.0
9.1 10.8 10.9 10.2
8.2
9.6
9.6
8.9
8.7
9.4
9.4
8.1
»—<
00

3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

-35.8
13.3 100.2
8.2 40.5
-1.4
13.0 36.5
12.7
16.8 35.6
19.1
18.2 33.5 20.6
11.8 22.7
11.2
13.7 23.4
13.9
12.5 20.7
12.2
10.2
10.8
17.8
9.7
10.4
16.5
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

Corporate Profits After-Tax with Capital Consumption and Inventory Valuation Adjustments.
First quarter data are final estimates.

28.8
30.9
29.0
14.6
17.2
14.7
12.0
11.2
1-93

2-93 3-93 4-93

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
221.8
225.8
258.1
261.5
255.6
261.6
272.4
266.6
238.6
283.8
282.8
301.3
323.6
342.4
324.1
344.8
347.4
344.7
349.8

33.1
29.1 25.3
10.2 0.3 -19.7
14.4
8.8
1.4 28.1
12.1
7.4
2.0 14.9 3.1
9.4
5.2
0.7
8.6 -0.1 -3.1
5.3
8.9
1.7
7.9
1.9
1.4 6.1
2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 3 ,1 9 9 5

C o rp o ra te P ro fits an d N et C ash F lo w
(Billions of Dollars)

Period

Corporate
Profits(1)

After-Tax
Profits(1)

Capital
Dividends Co

Inventory
Capital
Valuation Consumption
Adjustment
Adjustment

Net
Cash Flow

382.6
409.3
367.5
362.8

250.6
269.5
221.8
225.8

149.9
154.6
155.7
153.7

360.4
365.0
371.3
376.2

-2.0
8.9
-31.5
-19.5

35.8
31.4
22.8
13.5

463.1
471.0
468.9
467.9

385.4
391.5
389.6
394.7

258.1
261.5
255.6
261.6

158.0
159.4
161.6
160.9

380.7
382.4
384.1
386.1

10.4
12.1
1.4
-0.8

13.7
18.9
22.5
22.4

470.5
472.4
476.7
487.6

412.1
412.6
363.2
432.5

272.4
266.6
238.6
283.8

161.0
166.8
174.4
182.1

388.6
391.3
410.4
396.8

-4.0
-16.6
-7.3
2.1

19.0
15.8
10.9
16.9

504.0
507.9
481.8
496.5

4

442.5
473.1
493.5
533.9

282.8
301.3
323.6
342.4

188.2
190.7
193.2
194.6

402.3
404.8
413.3
411.1

-11.2
-10.0
3.0
-6.5

21.0
26.5
31.7
38.8

508.0
525.4
540.6
565.5

1994: 1
2
3
4

508.2
546.4
556.0
560.3

324.1
344.8
347.4
344.7

196.3
202.5
207.9
213.9

432.2
425.9
432.6
438.0

-12.3
-14.1
-19.6
-32.1

37.0
37.4
37.5
38.8

572.2
582.3
591.7
600.9

1995: 1

569.7

349.8

217.1

445.3

-39.0

38.1

616.9

1990: 1
2

3
4
1991: 1
2

3
4
1992: 1
2

3
4
1993: 1
2

3

(1) Profits data includes the Inventory Valuation Adjustment and Capital Consumption Adjustment.
The latter is the excess of depreciation allowances over Capital Consumption.
Net Cash Flow equals After-Tax Corporate Profits less Dividends, less the Inventory Valuation Adjustment, plus Capital Consumption.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis

24

Government Defieit( - ) /Surplus(+ )
Seasonally Adjusted
Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

0

0

-50

-5 0
\

T<

>tal

100

-1 0 0
(

1

/
/

^

/

150

-1 5 0

f

Federal

-2 0 0

V —

-2 0 0

{

s
/

-2 5 0

/

/

\ \

h

-2 5 0

V
v

/
/

-3 0 0

-3 0 0

-3 5 0

'

1

'

1 9 8 9

'

I

*

..... ' ..I.........

1 9 9 0

1

1 9 9 1

1

1 9 9 2

'

1

1 "1
1 9 9 3

,

(

r

1 9 9 4

1

1

1— 1 - 3 5 0

1 9 9 5

National incom e a ccou n ts basis
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank o f St. Louis

Federal Government Debt
(Billions of Dollars)
Seasonally Adjusted End of Month Totals

Period

Gross
Federal Debt

Federal Debt held
by Agencies
and Trusts

Net
Federal Debt

Federal Debt held Federal Debt held
by Federal
by Private
Reserve Banks
Investors

Federal Debt held
by Foreign
Investors

1991: March
June
September
December

3465.4
3539.0
3678.0
3785.6

881.3
885.5
922.7
959.4

2585.6
2655.2
2755.9
2822.4

252.4
254.2
267.8
274.2

2343.4
2409.1
2498.2
2560.2

462.0
475.0
481.2
488.1

1992: March
June
September
December

3884.6
3984.8
4078.7
4157.2

980.3
998.0
1019.4
1036.8

2905.2
2989.9
3059.5
3116.5

273.1
275.7
299.7
294.9

2646.7
2723.9
2775.2
2835.9

505.8
532.0
538.9
545.4

1993: March

June
September
December

4237.1
4351.4
4426.9
4512.2

1061.6
1089.4
1119.9
1140.6

3175.8
3266.0
3307.0
3367.4

311.4
326.5
329.0
336.1

2877.6
2950.0
2993.9
3042.4

562.0
570.7
595.2
617.6

1994: March
June
September
December

4585.2
4644.5
4709.1
4774.7

1162.5
1191.9
1216.2
1242.9

3422.8
3456.8
3492.5
3527.7

349.4
355.6
358.7
365.9

3077.1
3099.8
3139.5
3162.1

630.3
636.6
659.4
682.4

1995: March

4875.1

1277.8

3598.2

376.6

3221.4

725.1

Columns may not add because each component is seasonally adjusted separately. Gross federal debt equals debt held by agencies and trusts plus net federal debt.
Net federal debt equals debt held by Federal Reserve banks plus debt held by private investors (which includes debt held by foreign investors).
Sources: Orginal data m ay be found in the T R E A S U R Y BULLETIN and also in the FE DER AL RESERVE BULLETIN; seasonally adjusted series prepared by this Bank.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Data have been revised to reflect changed seasonal adjustment factors.




25

Government Budgets
(Billions of Dollars; National Income Account Basis)

Federal

Federal. State and Local

Receipts

Expenditures

Surplus/
Deficit(-)

1091.3

1257.8

»166.4

Period
1990: 1

Receipts

Expenditures

Surplus/
Deficit(-)

iGrants-jn-Aid(‘

1676.1

1808.0

-131.9

2

1114.5

1266.5

-152.0

127.7

2

1705.0

1827.7

-122.7

3

1123.7

1268.3

131.9

-144.6

3

1728.7

1848.6

-119.9

4

1115.8

131.9

1306.9

-191.0

4

1726.5

1905.8

-179.3

1991: 1

137.6

1120.1

1264.5

-144.4

1991: 1

1734.0

1868.4

-134.4

144.3

2

1121.8

1329.4

-207.6

2

1744.7

1937.4

-192.8

151.7

3

1132.5

1346.0

-213.6

3

1768.5

1964.2

-195.8

154.7

4

1140.5

1386.3

-245.8

4

1788.7

2009.4

-220.7

162.6

1992: 1

1155.7

1435.6

-279.9

1992: 1

1813.5

2073.5

-260.0

164.6

2

1171.0

1455.8

-284.8

2

1836.9

2095.8

-258.9

172.8

3

1166.5

1460.4

-293.9

3

1837.0

2110.5

-273.5

174.6

Period
1990: 1

4

1219.9

1492.0

-272.1

4

1908.8

2147.9

-239.1

176.6

1993: 1

1212.7

1496.2

-283.5

1993: 1

1901.0

2162.9

-261.9

176.7

2

1263.7

1500.6

-237.0

2

1965.1

2176.7

-211.6

182.9

3

1272.7

1497.6

-224.9

3

1980.9

2181.9

-201.0

187.8

4

1313.6

1533.7

-220.1

4

2035.4

2221.0

-185.6

197.0

1994: 1

1337.4

1513.7

-176.2

2066.5

2217.6

-151.1

190.0

2

1380.7

1525.9

-145.1

2121.9

2240.1

-118.1

194.4

3
4
1995: 1

1388.8

1542.8

-154.0

1994: 1
2
3
4
1995: 1

2138.8

2268.9

-130.1

200.3

1408.8

1569.9

-161.1

1441.0

1589.6

-148.6

2171.1

2303.4

-132.3

205.5

2211.2

2331.7

-120.4

211.0

(1) Federal G rants-in-Aid to state and local governm ent are part of federal expenditures and state and local receipts, but are netted out in computing total governm ent m easures.

Federal Budgets
Fiscal Years
(Billions of Dollars; Unified Budget Basis)

Total Budget
Receipts
Outlays
Surplus or Deficit(-)

Estimate
1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

$1,355

$1,257.7

$1,153.5

$1,090.5

$1,054.3

1.531

1.460.9

1.408.7

1,380.9

1.323.4

$1,031.3
1.252.7

-176

-203.2

-255.1

-290.4

-269.2

-221.4

Calendar Years
(Billions of Dollars; National Income Account Basis)

National Income Account
Budget
Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or Deficit(-)

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

$1,379.0

$1,265.7

$1,178.3

$1,128.7

$1,111.4

1.538.1

1.507.0

1.460.9

1.331.6

1.274.9

-159.1

-241.4

-282.7

-202.9

-163.5

Note: Fiscal years refer to the budget year which runs from October 1 through Septem ber 30.
Total budget outlays include federal entities that are off-budget.
Estim ate is Congressional Budget O ffice baseline projection from TH E E C O N O M IC & B U D G E T O U TLO O K : FISC AL Y E A R S 1 9 9 6-2 000 (January 1995).




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

26

Federal Government Receipts
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates

Initial Quarter
2-90

3-90 4-90

3-90
4-90

3,3
0.2

1-91
2-91

0.7

-2.8
-0.6

0.7

-0.2

3-91

13

0.8

1-91

2-91

3-91

1-92 2-92

3-92 4-92

1-93 2-93 3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94 4-94
1,123.7
1,115.8

1.6
1.1

1,120.1
0.6

2.0
2.2

2.2
2.4

3.9
3.4
4.0
4.4

4.1

5.4

4.6

5.4

5.4

3.2
5.7

3.0

3.1

1.9

6.1

7.0

7.5

8.5

19.6

4.6
6.1

4.7
6.5

5.0
7.1

4.9
7.4

4.8
7.9

8.1

5.8
6.5

6.0
6.8

6.5
7.3

6.6
7.6

6.9
8.0

6.6
7.2

6.9

7.3
7.9

7.6
8.2

7.9
8.6

6.8
6.7

7.0
6.9

7.4

7.6

7.3

7.5

7.9
7.7

7.5

7.6

7.8

4-91

1-92 2-92

4-91

1.5

1.2

1-92

1.9
2.4

2.9

3.2

2-92

2.1
2.5

3.3

3.6

3-92

2,0

1.9

2.7

1,121.8
1.132.5
2.9

4-92

3.7

3.7

2.6
4.6

1-93

3.1
4.4

3.8
5.1

4.1

2-93

3.1
4.3

3-93

4.2

4.2

4.9

5.2

4-93

4.8

4.9

5.6

6.0

1-94
2-94

5.0

5.7

6.1

5.5

5.1
5.6

6.3

6.6

3-94

5.3

5.4

6.0

6.3

4-94

5.3

5.5

6.0

6.3

1-95

5.6

5.7

6.2

6.5

6.9

7.1

1-91

2-91

3-91

2-90

4-91

3-90 4-90

5.0
5.5

7.5

1,140.5
1,155.7
1,171.0
1.166.5

-1.5

1,219.9
1.212.7

-2.3

11.3

7.3

17.9

9.1
10.0

5.8
7.7

10.1
11.2

9.5
10.1

7.6
8.6

10.3
10.9

9.1
8.7

7.7

9.5

7.5

8.8

7.7

3-92 4-92

First quarter data are final estimates.

1,263.7
1,272.7

2.9
8.1

13.5

7.9

10.4

7.4

9.3

11.5

10.5

13.6

7.8

9.1

7.7

7.8

2.4

*

8.9

7.5

8.5

7.2

7.2

4.1

5.9

9.0

7.8

8.6

7.7

7.7

5.9

4-93

1-94 2-94

1-93 2-93 3-93

1,313.6
1.337.4
1,380.7

7.7

1.388.8
1,408.8
9.5

1.441.0

3-94 4-94

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 3, 1995

Federal Government Expenditures
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
2-90

3-90

3-90

0.6

4-90

6.5

12.7

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92 2-92

3-92 4-92

Annual Rates
1-93 2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94 2-94

3-94 4-94
1,268.3
1,306.9

1-91

-0.2

-0.6

-12.4

2-91

5.0

6.5

3.5

22.2

3-91

5.0
6.2

6.1
7.4

4.0

4-91

6.1

13.3
13.0

5.1
8.7

1-92
2-92

7.4

7.8
7.5

13.5
11.9

10.8
9.5

13.8

15.0

7.2

8.6
8.2

1 1 .0

10.3

5.7

3-92

6.5

7.3

6.6
6.8

10.1

7.8

8.5

7.2

3.5

9.9

8.0

8.6

7.6

5.3

5.0

8.9

6.2
5.7

8.8
7.9

7.0
6.2

7.3

4.2

3.7.

6.4

6.3
5.4

3.6

3.1

5.0
3.7

1.1
1.2

1.2

7.0

5.4

5.5

2.9
3.8

2.3

2.5

0.5

0.2

-0.8

3.5

4.0

2.8

3.4

4.5

10.0

2.3

2.4

1.2

1.2

2.2

1,264.5
1,329.4
1,346.0
12.5

1,386.3
1,435.6
1,455.8
1.3

1,460.4

4-92

6.8

7.5

1-93
2-93

6.2
5.8

6.8
6.3

3-93
4-93

5.3

5.7

5.6

6.0

5.1
5.5

7.3

5.9

6.0

4.5
5.2

1-94

4.9

5.2
5.1

4.6
4.5

6.2

4.8
4.7

4.0
3.9

2.7

6.0

4.8
4.7

2.7

2.4

2.5

1.5

1.6

1.2
1.7

5.8
5.9

4.7

4.7

2.8

4.8

2.9
3.3

2.6

4.9

4.0
4.2

3.1

3.3

1.9
2.6

2.1
2.8

2.2
3.1

5.9

4.9

4.9

4.3

3.5

3.2

3.4

2.9

3.1

3.3

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92 2-92

2-94

4.8

3-94

5.0

4-94

4.8
4.9

5.1

4.5
4.7

1-95

4.9

5.1

4.7

2-90

3-90 4-90

1,492.0

3-92 4-92

First quarter data are final estimates.




1,496.2
1,500.6

1-93 2-93

1,497.6
1,533.7
1,513.7

2.5

-5.1
-1.0

3.3

3.0
3.8

0.8
2.4

3.9
5.0

4.5
5.9

7.2

4.1

2.9

5.0

5.6

6.2

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94 4-94

1,525.9
1,542.8
1,569.9
5.1

1,589.6

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 3, 1995

27

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Post Office Box 442
St. Louis, Missouri 63166

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