Full text of National Economic Trends : July 1990

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N

a t io n a l

E c o n o m

ic

T r e n d s

July 1 9 9 0
T h e
th e

g r o w th

c a s e

fo r

im p lic a t io n s

T h e
a n d
A s

A s
to

s o

to ta l

u n til

d r a m a t ic a lly

ra te s

o f

a n d

o ld e r

1 9 3 0 s .

a g e

in

in

th e

w a s

th e

a

it

n a tio n ’s

e n te rs

a

m id s t
“

o f

b a b y
is

a

la te r

in

A t

th e

w ill

th e
tu rn
s ta rt

o f

o f

”

ta b le ,

th e

r is in g

T h e

5 5

a n d

a n d

r a p id ly ,

to

th e

its

e c o n o m ic

c o n c e r n e d
fu tu re

d e m o g r a p h ic
1 9 6 4 .

In

th e

o f p e rs o n s

w o r k in g
a g e

th e

a g e ,

c h a n g e .

1 9 7 0 s ,

g ro u p

o ld e s t

r e a c h in g

3 3

is

o f

o f

th e

o f

a

b ir t h

4‘ b i r t h
ra te s

A g e
(in

55

g ro u p
y e a rs )

19 8 0 -8 5

1 9 8 5 -9 0

y e a r s

o f
is

a g e

g r o w in g

b o o m e r s

is

a n d

in

th e

d ro p p e d

s h r in k in g ,

g r o w in g

p o p u la t io n

in

r a p id ly ,

s lo w ly

r e a c h

to ta l

1 9 9 0 -9 5

t h e ir

1 9 3 0 s

s h a r p ly .

a g e

a n d

b e c a u s e
5 5 ,

w ill

c o n t in u e

h o w e v e r ,

th e

o f

th e

b u t

lo w

g r o w th

o f

w ill
b ir t h

th e

1995 -2 0 00

1 9 8 0

o f

p o p u la t io n

1 9 9 0

2 0 0 0

1 7 . 0 %

1 3 . 1 %

1 2 .2 %

1.32

0 .6 4

3 7 .9

4 2 .9

44.1

0 .7 9

0.8 1

1.39

2 0 .8

21 .1

2 2 .0

0 .9 1

0 .7 7

0 .6 2

1 0 0 .0

1 0 0 .0

1 0 0 .0

- 1 . 8 9 %

- 0 . 8 9 %

2 5 -54

2 .3 1

2 .1 1

1 .4 0

0 .9 9

5 5

2 0 2 5 .

0 . 9 3 %

- 1 . 4 4 %

o ld e r

e s p e c ia lly

T r e n d s

r a te

16-24

&

is

tre n d s

d e a r th ”

a g a in

P e r c e n t
G r o w t h

T h is

p o p u la t io n

liv in g .

F o llo w in g

y e a r s ,

c u r r e n tly
b a b y

im p lic a tio n s .

m a tu r in g .

2 4

5 4

s o c ia l

d e v e lo p in g

h o w e v e r ,

is

to

to

th e

p e r c e n t

P o p u l a t i o n

16

2 5

a n d

w it h

s ta n d a rd

a g e - c o m p o s itio n

o ld e r

w h e n

w it h
a re

a n d

n u m b e r

p r im e

c e n tu r y ,

r ife

m a r k e d
1 9 4 6

th e

o f

is

A n a ly s ts

g r o w th

o f

fr o m

s lo w ly

p e rs o n s

d e c a d e .

1 9 9 0 s .

p e r io d

b o o m

g r o w in g

n u m b e r

p o p u la t io n

th e

e c o n o m ic

a c c o m p a n y in g

T h e

g ro u p

o f

a s

p r o d u c t iv ity ,

p o p u la t io n

1 9 9 5 .

s lo w

th e

is

th e re

s u m m a r iz e d

d o

S ta te s

s a v in g ,

S ta te s

1 9 4 0 s ,

r e s u lt,

c o m p o s it io n

U n it e d

fo r

U n it e d

e a r ly
a

a n d

th e

T o ta l
p o p u la t io n

—

T H
F E D

E

E R A L
R E S E R V E
R A N K

o f

S T . L O

I

L S


V ie w s e x p re s s e d d o n o t n e ce ssarily r e fle c t o ffic ia l p o sitio n s o f t h e F ederal R e se rve System .


K e it h

M

.

C a r ls o n

T O T A L a m

iA N

E& m

jO m

æ N T

< C osBpo Q »ded A n u n ! S a i e s o f Q ia a g e )

TE R M IN A L
MONTH
1 H 8

11-88

THO USA ND S
O F PERSONS

I N I T I A L MONTH
1 1 -8 8

1 2 -8 8

1 -8 9

2 -8 9

3 -8 9

4 -8 9

5 -8 9

5 .9

* -8 9

7 -8 9

8 -8 9

9 -8 9

1 8 -8 9 1 1 -8 9 1 2 -8 9

1 -9 8

2 -9 0

3 -9 8

4 -9 0

1 1 6 .0 1 2

1 2 -6 8

2 .«

1 -8 9

5 .5

5 .3

5 .3

2 -8 9

2 .9

2 .«

5 .2

1 .2

5 -8 9

2 .9

2 .7

5 .2

2 .1

3 .8

4^89

2 .5

2 .2

2 .5

1 .5

1 .7

8.4

117*084

5 -8 9

2 .2

1 .9

2 .1

1 .5

1 .3

0 .4

8 .5

117*132

4 -8 9

2 .5

2 .3

2 .4

1 .9

2 .8

1.7

2 .4

4 .3

2 .1

1 .8

1 .9

1 .4

1 .4

1 .0

1-2

1 .6

1 .8

1 .8

1 .3

1 .«

1.8

1 .2

1 .4

8 .8

1 .2

1 .5

1 .5

l.o

1 .0

8 .6

0 .7

0 .7

-8 .4

-8.1

-1 .3

7-89
8 -8 9

116-* 141

1 .3

2 .0

9 -8 9

1 1 6 .6 4 0
1X6*757
1 1 7 .8 4 7

117*542
1 17 * 45 6

-1 .1

1 1 7 .5 5 0
1 1 7 .4 1 9

i(H 8 9

1 .7

1 .5

1 .5

1 .1

1 .1

8 .8

0 .9

0 .9

8.1

8 .5

8 .2

1 .7

1 1 -8 9

1 .7

1 .6

1 .6

1 .2

1.2

1.0

1.1

1.2

0.6

1.8

1.0

2.1

2.6

1 2 -8 9

1.7

1 .5

1 .5

1.2

1.2

1.8

1.0

1.1

0 .6

0 .9

8 .9

1 .6

1.6

1 1 7 .5 8 5
1 1 7 .8 3 6
8 .5

117*888

1—9D

1 .5

1.4

1 .4

1 .0

1 .0

0 .8

8 .9

8 .9

8 .5

0 .7

0.6

1.1

8 .9

0.1

-« .3

2 -9 0

1 .5

1 .«

1 .4

1.1

1.1

8 .9

1.8

1.8

8 .«

0 .9

0 .8

1 .3

1 .2

8 .7

0 .8

1 .8

5 -9 0

1 .6

1 .5

1 .5

1.2

1.2

1 .1

1.2

1.2

8 .9

1 .1

1.1

1 .6

1 .5

1 .3

1 .5

2 .4

3 .1

117*863
1 1 8 .8 3 5
118*354

4 -9 0

1 .4

1 .3

1 .3

1 .8

1.0

8 .8

8 .9

8 .9

0.6

8 .8

8 .7

1.8

8 .9

8.6

0.6

8 .9

0 .4

-2.2

5 -9 0

1 .5

1 .3

1 .3

1.1

1.1

1 .8

1 .8

1 .8

8 .8

8 .9

8 .9

1.2

1.1

8 .9

8 .9

1.2

l.l

0.1

2 .4

11-88 1 2 -8 8

1^89

2 -8 9

3 -8 9

4 -8 9

5 -8 9

« -« 9

7 -8 9

8 -8 9

9 -8 9

1 8 -8 9

1 1 -8 9

1 2 -8 9

1 -9 8

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

1 0 -8 8

118*116
1 1 8 .3 5 8

I N I T I A L MONTH

PREPARE® B Y F E 3 E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F S T . L O U I S
JU N E 1 . w e

P A Y R O L L E M P L O Y M E N T
(C o m p o u n d e d A s m i u I R a le s o f C f a u g e )

TE R M IN A L
MONTH
1 0 -8 8 1 1 - 8 8

1 2 -8 8

1 -8 9

2 -8 9

1 1 -8 8

4 .8

1 2 -8 8

3 .6

5 .1

1 -8 9

3 .7

3 .5

3 .9

2 -8 9

3 .5

5 .4

5 .5

3 .0

5 -8 9

5 .2

3 .0

5 .0

2 .5

2 .0

4 -8 9

3 .1

2 .9

2 .8

2 .5

2 .2

3 -8 9

4 -8 9

I N I T I A L MONTH
O F PER SO N S
5 -8 9
6 -8 9
7 -8 9
8 -8 9

THOUSANDS
9 -8 9 1 8 - * 9

1 1 -8 9 1 2 -8 9

1 -9 0

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 8
1 0 6 .8 2 4
1 0 7 .8 9 7
107*442
107*711
107*888

2 .4

1 0 8 .1 0 1

5 -8 9

5 .8

2 .8

2 .7

2 .4

2 .2

2 .4

2 .3

6 -8 9

3 .0

2 .9

2 .8

2 .6

2 .5

2 .7

2 .8

3 .3

7 -8 9

2 .9

2 .7

2 .7

2 .5

2 .4

2 .5

2 .5

2 .4

1 .8

8 -8 9

2 .7

2 .4

2 .5

2 .5

2 .2

2 .2

2 .2

2 .1

1 .6

1 .5

108*310
108*607
1 0 8 .7 6 7
1 0 8 .8 8 7

9 -8 9

2 .7

2 .6

2 .5

2 .5

2 .2

2 .3

2 .2

2 .2

1 .8

1 .8

2 .5

1 8 -8 9

2 .5

2 .4

2 .3

2 .2

2 .0

2 .0

2 .8

1 .9

1 .4

1 .5

1 .6

0 .8

1 1 -8 9

2 .6

2 .5

2 .4

2 .2

2 .2

2 .2

2 .2

2 .1

1 .9

1 .9

2 .1

2 .8

5 .1

1 2 -8 9

2 .5

2 .4

2 .5

2 .2

2 .1

2 .1

2 .8

2 .8

1 .8

1 .8

1 .9

1 .7

2 .2

1 .5

1 0 9 .0 9 6
1 0 9 .1 7 1
1 0 9 .4 5 2
109*570

1 -9 0

2 .6

2 .5

2 .4

2 .3

2 .3

2 .3

2 .5

2 .5

2 .1

2 .2

2 .5

2 .5

2 .8

2 .7

4 .0

2 -9 0

2 .7

2 .6

2 .4

2 .5

2 .4

2 .4

2 .5

2 .5

2 .4

2 .4

2 .4

2 .7

5 .1

5 .2

4 .1

4 .1

5 -9 0

2 .6

2 .5

2 .5

2 .4

2 .3

2 .4

2 .3

2 .4

2 .2

2 .5

2 .4

2 .5

2 .8

2 .7

5 .2

2 .7

1 .3

4 -9 0

2 .4

2 .4

2 .3

2 .2

2 .1

2 .2

2 .1

2 .1

2 .8

2 .0

2 .1

2 .1

2 .5

2 .1

2 .3

1 .7

0 .5

-8 .2

5 -9 0

2 .4

2 .3

2 .3

2 .2

2 .1

2 .1

2 .1

2 .1

2 .8

2 .0

2 .1

2 .8

2 .2

2 .0

2 .2

1 .7

1 .8

0 .8

1 .8

1 0 -8 8 1 1 - 8 8

1 2 -»

1 -8 9

2 -8 9

3 -8 9

4 -8 9

5 -8 9

6 -8 9

7 -8 9

8 -8 9

9 -8 9

1 0 -8 9

1 1 -8 9

1 2 -8 9

1 -9 0

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

109*951
110*504
1 1 8 .4 2 7
I1 0 .4 0 4 P
1 1 0 .5 6 8 P

I N ITIAL M O N T H
P- P R ELIMINARY




P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S

2

EMPLOYMENT
R A T I O

R A T I O

S C A L E

M I L L I O N S

OF

SEASONALLY

P E R S O N S

M I L L I O N S

ADJUSTED

SO U R C E t

OF

U .S .D E P A R T M E N T

S C A L E

P E R S O N S

OF LA BO R

B E G IN N IN G JA N U A R Y I 9 S 6 , TO TAL EM PLO YM EN T DATA IN C O R PO R A T E N EV P R O C E D U R E S FOR E S T IM A T IN G
M E A S U R E S OF IM M IG R A T IO N AND E M IG R A T IO N IN C R E A S IN G TOTAL EM PLO YM EN T B Y ABOUT 0 . 3 % .
PERC EN T A G ES ARE
LATEST

ANNUAL R A T E S OF CHANGE FOR P E R IO D S

DATA P LO T T E D »

IN D IC A T E D .

MAY P R E L IM IN A R Y
PREPA RED

BY

FED ERAL

RESERVE

BANK OF S T .

L O U IS

U N E M P LOY MEN T RATE
PERCENT




S E A S O N A L L Y

PERCENT

A D J U S T E D

1 1 .0

1 0 .0

9.0

8 . 0

7.0

6 . 0

5.0

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988
SO U RCE»

PERC EN T
LATEST

OF C I V I L I A N

LABO R

DATA P LO T T E D »

MAY

U .S .

1989
D EPAR T M EN T

1990
OF LABO R

FO R C E

PRE PARE D BY F E D E R A L RE S E RV E BANK OF S T .

3

L OUI S

4.0

C O N S U M E R PRICE I N DEX F O R AL L U R B A N C O N S U M E R S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )

11-88

5.0

12-88

5.6

INITIAL M O N T H
1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

1982-84*100
9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

5-90

I
o

T ERMINAL
MONTH
10-88 11-88 12-88

120.5
120.7

4.1

121.4

1-89

4.7

5.6

7.2

2-89

4.8

5.4

6.1

5.1

5-89

5.1

5.6

6.1

5.6

6.1

4-89

5.6

6.1

6.6

6.4

7.1

121.9
122.5
125.5

8.1

125.8

5-89

5.5

5.9

6.5

6.0

6.4

6.5

5.0

6—89

5.2

5.5

5.7

5.4

5.5

5.5

4.0

7-89

5.0

5.5

5.5

5.2

5.2

5.0

4.0

5.4

5.9

8-89

4.5

4.7

4.8

4.4

4.5

4.0

2.9

2.5

1.9

124.1

2.9

124.5
0.0

124.5

9-89

4.4

4.5

4.6

4.2

4.1

5.8

2.9

2.4

2.5

1.5

2.9

10-89

4.5

4.6

4.7

4.4

4.5

4.1

5.4

5.1

5.2

2.9

4.4

124.8
125.4

5.9

11-89

4.5

4.6

4.6

4.4

4.5

4.1

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.2

4.2

4.9

5.9

12-89

4.5

4.6

4.6

4.4

4.5

4.2

5.7

5.5

5.6

5.5

4.4

4.9

4.4

125.8
4.9

126.5

1-90

5.1

5.2

5.5

5.2

5.2

5.1

4.8

4.8

5.0

5.2

6.5

7.1

7.5

9.4

14.1

2-90

5.1

5.5

5.4

5.2

5.5

5.2

4.9

4.9

5.1

5.5

6.2

6.9

7.1

8.2

9.9

5.8

5-90

5.2

5.5

5.4

5.5

5.5

5.2

5.0

5.0

5.2

5.5

6.1

6.7

6.8

7.6

8.5

5.8

4-90

5.0

5.1

5.2

5.0

5.0

5.0

4.7

4.7

4.9

5.0

5.6

6.0

6.0

6.4

6.8

4.5

5.8

1.9

5-90

4.8

4.9

5.0

4.8

4.8

4.7

4.5

4.4

4.6

4.6

5.2

5.5

5.4

5.6

5.8

5.8

5.2

1.9

1.9

10-88 11-88 12-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

5-90

4-90

127.7
128.5
5.8

128.9
129.1
129.5

IN IT IA L MONTH

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
JUNE 15» 1990

P R O D U C E R P R IC E IN D E X , F IN IS H E D

G O O D S

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s o f C h a n g e )

TERMINAL
MONTH
10-88 11-88 12-88
11-88

4 5

12-88

5 9

IN IT IA L MONTH
1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

1982 » 100
9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

5-90

4-90
109.7

5.5

110.0

1-89

7 1

8.5

15.9

2-89

7 5

8.5

10.8

7.8

5-89

6 9

7.6

9.0

6.7

5.5

4-89

7 1

7.6

8.7

7.0

6.6

7.7

5-89

7 5

7.8

8.7

7.5

7.5

8.5

8.8

111.2
111.9
112.4
115.1
115.9

6-89

6 5

6.8

7.4

6.2

5.7

5.8

4.9

1.1

7-89

5 5

5.4

5.7

4.4

5.7

5.2

1.8

-1.6

-4.1

8-89

4 4

4.4

4.5

5.5

2.5

1.9

0.5

-2.1

-5.6

-5.1

114.0
115.6
115.5

9-89

4 8

4.8

5.0

5.9

5.4

5.0

2.1

0.5

0.4

2.7

8 .8

10-89

4 9

5.0

5.1

4.2

5.8

5.5

2.8

1.7

1.9

5.9

7.6

6.5

11-89

4 6

4.6

4.8

5.9

5.5

5.2

2.6

1.6

1.7

5.2

5.4

5.7

1.1

12-89

4 8

4.9

5.0

4.2

5.9

5.7

5.2

2.4

2.6

4.1

5.9

5.0

4.5

7.6

1-90

6 1

6.2

6.4

5.8

5.7

5.7

5.5

5.0

5.6

7.5

9.6

9.8

10.9

16.1

25.4

2-90

5 6

5.7

5.9

5.5

5.1

5.1

4.8

4.4

4.8

6.1

7.7

7.5

7.8

10.1

11.4

-1.0

114.1
114.7
114.8
115.5
117.7
117.6

5-90

5 2

5.2

5.5

4.8

4.5

4.4

4.2

5.7

4.0

5.1

6.5

5.9

5.7

6.9

6.7

-1.5

-2.0

4-90

4 7

4.7

4.8

4.2

4.0

5.9

5.5

5.1

3.5

4.1

5.1

4.5

4.2

4.9

4.2

-2.0

-2.5

-5.0

5-90

4 6

4.6

4.7

4.2

5.9

5.8

5.5

5.1

5.5

4.0

4.9

4.4

4.1

4.6

4.0

-0.8

-0.7

0.0

5.1

10-88 11-88 12-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

5-90

4-90




117.4
117.1
117.4

INITIAL M O N T H

P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O UIS
JU N E 14» 1990

4




RATIO

SCALE

1982-100

P R I C E S
SEASONALLY AOJ USTED

RATIO

SCALE

1982-100

CONSUMER P R IC ES DATA ARC ON A 1882-84-100 BASE
C P I- « »ATA BE®IMMI MG 1985 INCORPORATE A RENTAL EOUIVALENCE MEASURE FOR HOMEOINERSHIP COSTS.
PERCENTA6E8 ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED* NAY

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST . LOUIS

r a t i o

s c a l e

1982-100

P R O D U C E R

P R I C E S

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

r a t i o

s c a l e

1982-100

PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED« NAY

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

5

P R O D U C E R PRICE INDEX, FINISHED C O N S U M E R F O O D S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
TERMINAL
MONTH
10-88 11-88 12-88
11-8S

5 .4

12-88

5.7

INITIAL M O N T H
1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

1982 * 100
9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90
115.3

2.1

115.5
117.0

1-89

7.9

9.2

16.7

2-89

8.5

9.5

15.1

9.6

5-89

8.1

8.8

11.2

8.5

117.9
118.6

7.4

118.0

4-89

5.7

5.7

6.6

3.5

0.5

“ 5.9

5-89

5.7

5.8

6.6

4.2

2.4

0.0

6.5

6-89

4.1

5.9

4.2

1.9

0.0

-2.5

-0.5

7-89

5.9

5.7

3.9

1.9

0.4

-1.5

0.5

-2.5

2.1

8-89

5.9

5.7

5.9

2.2

1.0

-0.2

1.5

-0.5

5.1

9-89

5.1

2.9

5.0

1.4

0.5

-0.8

0.2

-1.5

0.7

0.0

-4.0

10-89

4.5

4.2

4.4

5.1

2.5

1.6

2.9

2.2

4.7

5.5

6.2

11-89

4.7

4.7

4.9

5.8

5.2

2.7

4.0

5.6

5.8

6.8

7.6

14.0

10.5

12-89

5.1

5.0

5.5

4.5

5.8

5.4

4.6

4.4

6.4

7.5

8.1

12.4

9.9

118.6
117.9

-6.9

118.1
4.1

118.5
118.1
17.5

119.7
120.7
9.5

121.6

1-90

6.6

6.7

7.1

6.5

6.0

5.9

7.5

7.4

9.6

11.0

12.4

16.9

16.7

19.9

51.4

2-90

6.7

6.7

7.1

6.4

6.1

6.0

7.5

7.4

9.5

10.4

11.4

14.8

14.2

15.4

18.6

124.4
7.0

125.1

5-90

5.8

5.9

6.1

5.4

5.1

4.9

5.9

5.9

7.4

8.1

8.7

11.0

9.7

9.5

9.5

0.0

-6.5

4-90

5.0

5.0

5.2

4.5

4.1

5.9

4.7

4.6

5.8

6.5

6.5

8.1

6.6

5.9

5.0

-2.5

-7.0

-7.4

5-90

5.1

5.1

5.5

4.6

4.5

4.1

4.9

4.8

5.9

6.5

6.6

8.0

6.7

6.1

5.4

-0.2

-2.5

-0.5

7.0

10-88 11-88 12-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

5-89

*-89

7-89

8-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

5-90

4-90

124.4
125.6
124.5

IN IT IA L MONTH

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
JUNE 14* 1990

P R O D U C E R P R IC E IN D E X , F IN IS H E D

G O O D S , E X C L U D IN G

FO O D S

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s o f C h a n g e )

TERMINAL
MONTH
10-88 11-88 12-88

IN IT IA L MONTH
1-89

11-88

4.6

12-88

4.6

4.5

1-89

6.9

8 .0

11.7

2-89

7.4

8.4

10.4

9.2

5-89

6.8

7.4

8.4

6.8

2-89

5-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

1962 « 100
9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

5-90

4-90
107.8
108.2
109.2
110.0

4.5

110.4

4-89

7.6

8.2

9.1

8.5

7.9

11.4

5-89

8.1

8.7

9.6

9.1

9.0

11.4

11.5

6-89

7.5

7.9

8.5

7.9

7.5

8.6

7.2

5.5

7-89

5.9

6.0

6.5

5.4

4.6

4.7

2.5

-1.6

-6.2

8-89

4.6

4.6

4.6

5.6

2.7

2.4

0.5

-5.2

-6.2

9-89

5.5

5.6

5.7

5.0

4.4

4.4

5.0

1.1

0.4

5.8

14.9

10-89

5.5

5.4

5.5

4.8

4.5

4.2

5.1

1.5

1.1

5.6

8.9

111.4
112.4
112.7
112.1
-6.2

111.5
112.8
5.2

115.1

11-89

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.1

5.5

5.4

2.5

0.9

0.4

2.2

5.1

0.5

-2.1

12-89

4.8

4.9

4.9

4.5

5.8

5.8

2.8

1.7

1.4

5.0

5.5

2.5

2.1

6.6

1-90

6.1

6.2

6.5

5.9

5.6

5.7

5.1

4 .5

4.5

6.5

9.1

7.6

9.1

15.2

112.9
115.5
115.6

2-90

5.4

5.5

5.5

5.1

4.7

4.8

4.1

5.5

5.5

4.8

6.7

5.2

5.7

8.4

9.5

-4.1

3-90

5.0

5.0

5.1

4.6

4.3

4.5

5.6

2.9

2.8

4.0

5.6

4.1

4.5

6.0

5.8

-2.6

-1.0

4-90

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.2

5.9

3.8

5.2

2.5

2.5

5.5

4.7

5.4

5.4

4.5

4.0

-2.1

-1.0

-1.0

5-90

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.0

5.7

5.6

5.1

2.4

2.5

5.2

4.5

5.1

5.1

5.9

5.4

-1.5

-0.5

0.0

1.0

10-88 11-88 12-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

9-89

?
00
*

24.6

11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

5-90

4-90




115.2
115.1
115.0
115.1

INITIAL M O N T H

P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. LOU I S
J UNE 14, 1990

6

I N D U S T R I A L PRODUCTION
R A T I O

S C A L E

R A T I O

1987-100

1982

SEASONALLY

1983

1984

1985

S C A L E

1987-100

ADJUSTED

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED* NAY
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

IN D U S T R IA L P R O D U C T IO N
(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s o f C h a n g e )

INITIAL M O N T H
1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

4.6

12-88

5.2

5*8

1-89

4*6

4*6

5*4

2-89

5*1

2*6

1.1

-1.1

5-89

2*7

2*5

1.1

0*0

1*1

4-89

4*0

5*9

5*4

5*4

5*7

10*5

5-89

2*9

2*6

2*0

1.7

2*6

5*4

-5*5

6-89

2*7

2*4

1*9

1.6

2*2

2*6

-1.1

1*1

-2*9

-2*7

-6*4

-1.1

-0*4

-1*1

2-90

5-90

1*5

0*6

107*7

0*2

107*6

0*4

107*7

0*5

108.6
108.5
108.4

108.2

-0*7

2*2

0.0

108.2

-1.9

-0*4

-2. 7

-5*4

0*8

- 0. 4

- 0*6

0*4

1*8

1.1

1.5

5.1

-1*1

-1. 4

-0*6

-1*5

-1* 9

-0* 7

0*2

0.1

1*1

0*6

0*7

2*2

1*5

-0*6

11*8

0.7

1*7

1.5

1.5

2*9

2 *5

1*5

8*7

1*1

1.5

2*4

2.0

1*1

2*1

5.2

5*0

2*4

1.9

1*6

1*1

9-89

1*7

1*5

1.0

0*7

1*0

0*9

-0*9

-0*5

10-89

1.1

0*8

0.5

0.0

0*1

0*0

-1.7

-1.5

11-89

1*4

1*1

0*7

0.4

0*6

0*6

-0*8

- 0.4

-0.7

12-89

1*7

1*5

1*1

0.9

1*1

1*1

0*0

0*5

1-90

0*8

0*5

0*1

-0*2

-0*1

-0*2

-1*5

2-90

1*4

1*2

0*9

0*7

0*8

0*8

-0*1

5-90

1.7

1*5

1*2

1*2

0*4

0*8

4-90

1*6

0*7

0*8

1*0

1*1

1*2

1*1

107.8
4.5

8-89

1.4

1*1

1*0

1*1

1.1

0*4

0.7

1*5

1*7

1*5

1*4

1*6

1*6

0*9

1*5

1.5

2*1

1*9

10-88 11-88 12-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

5-90

1-90

107*4

107.7
108.1

4*5

108.6

5.7

107.5

-5. 5 -11*5

9-89 10-89 11-89

N
1
CO
<6

1*6

1977 * 100
9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

106*9

11-88

7-89

8 -89

7-89

T
o

T E RMINAL
MO NTH
10-88 11-88 12-88

108*5
5*7

109*0

5*7

2*8

0*0

109*0P

6*5

4*5

5*9

8.0

1-90

2-90

5-90

4-90

1 0 9 *7P

INITIAL M O N T H
P- PRELIMINARY




P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K OF ST. L O UIS
JU N E 15, 1990

7

PERSONAL
R A T I O

MONTHLY

S C A L E

T R I L L I O N S

OF

TOTALS

SEASONALLY

D O L L A R S

INCOME

AT

ANNUAL

RATES

ADJUSTED

R A T I O
T R I L L I O N S

OF

S C A L E

D O L L A R S

3.

3.8

3.

3.4

3.

3.0

2.

2 . 6

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

SO U RCE:
P E R C E N T A G E S A R E ANNUAL
LA T EST

DATA P LO T T E D «

RATES

OF

CHANGE FOR

P E R IO D S

U .S .

1989
D EPARTM EN T

1990

2 . 2

OF COMMERCE

IN D IC A T E D .

MAY P R E L IM IN A R Y
PREPA RED

BY F E D E R A L

RESERV E

BANK

OF

ST.

L O U IS

P E R S O N A L IN C O M E
(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s o f C h a n g e )

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

5-89

INITIAL M O N T H
ANNUAL RATES
6-89 7-89 8-8 9

B I L L I O N S OF
DOLLARS

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1
©

TERMINAL
MONTH
10-88 11-88 12-88

2-90

3-90

4 -90
4 » 168.9

11-88

-3.3

12-88

3.8

11.3

1-89

9.2

16.0

2-89

10.3

15.3

17.3

13.8

3-89

10.7

14.4

15.5

12.9

12.1

4-89

10.1

13.0

13.5

11.1

9.8

5-89

9.0

11.2

11.2

8.9

7.3

5.0

2.5

6-89

8.6

10.4

10.3

8.3

7.0

5.3

4.2

5.9

7-89

8.5

10.0

9.9

8.1

7.0

5.8

5.3

6.6

7.4

8-89

8.0

9.3

9.1

7.5

6.5

5.4

4.8

5.6

5.5

3.6

9-89

7.5

8.6

8.4

6.9

5.9

4.9

4.4

4.9

4.6

3.2

2.8

10-89

7.7

8.7

8.4

7.2

6.3

5.6

11-89

7.9

8.9

8.7

7.6

6.9

6.3

12-89

7.8

8.7

8.5

7.5

6.8

1-90

8.0

8.9

8.7

7.7

7.2

2-90

8.1

8.9

8 .7

7.9

7.4

7.0

6.9

7.4

3-90

8.2

9.0

8.8

8.0

7.6

7.2

7.2

7.6

4-90

7.9

8.6

8.5

7.7

7.2

6.9

6.8

7.2

7.4

5-90

7.7

8.3

8.2

7.4

7.0

6.6

6.6

6.9

7.0

10-88 11-88 12-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

4 » 206.3
4.273.1

20.8

4*31 9 . 5
4.360.7
4 »38 7 • 1

7.5

4*39 6 . 3
4»4 1 7 . 5
4* 443.7
4 * 456.9
4.467.1

5.8

5.7

5.2

6.0

9.3

6.1

6.7

6.9

6.7

7.8

10.4

11.6

4*5 0 0 . 3

6.3

6.1

6.6

6.7

6.6

7.4

9.0

8.8

6.1

6.7

6.6

7.2

7.3

7.3

8.1

9.4

9.5

8.5

10.9

7.6

7.6

8.3

9.4

9.5

8. 8

10.1

9.3

7.8

7.9

8.5

9.5

9.6

9.1

10.1

9.6

7.4

7.8

8.6

8 .5

7.9

8 .3

7.4

6.5

3.1

7.0

7.4

7.9

7.8

7.1

7.3

6.5

5.5

3.4

3.6

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4 -90

4*5 4 1 . 5
4*564.1
4*6 0 3 . 6
4*63 7 . 9
10.0

4*67 4 . 8
4*6 8 6 . 8
4*7 0 0 . 8 P

I N ITIAL M O N T H
P- PRELIMINARY




P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S
J U N E 22» 1990

8

RETAIL SALES
R A T I O

R A T I O

S C A L E

B IL L IO N S OF DOLLARS

1982

1983

SEASONALLY

1984

1985

1986

S C A L E

B IL L IO N S OF DOLLARS

ADJUSTED

1987

1988

1989

1990

SOURCE* U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED* APRIL, MAY ADVANCE ESTIMATE
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

R E T A IL S A L E S
(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s o f C h a n g e )

T E RMINAL
MO N T H
10-88 11-88 12-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

5-89

INITIAL M O N T H
DOLLARS
7-89 8-8 9

6-89

M ILLIONS OF
9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

11-88

11.8

12-88

5.9

0.4

1-89

6.0

3.3

6.2

2-89

2.5

-0.4

-0.9

-7.5

3-89

2.0

-0.3

-0.5

-3.7

4-89

5.4

4.1

5.1

4.7

11 4

23.7

5-89

5.8

4.8

5.8

5.6

10 4

15.8

6-89

4.7

3.7

4.3

3.9

7 0

9.3

2.7

-2.7

7-89

5.2

4.4

5.0

4.8

7 4

9.2

4.8

3.0

9.1

8 -89

5.7

5.0

5.6

5.6

7 9

9.5

6.2

5.5

9.8

10.5

9-89

5.6

5.0

5.6

5.5

7 5

8.7

5.9

5.3

8.1

7.6

10-89

3.7

3.0

3.3

3.0

4 3

4.9

2.1

0.9

1.8

-0.5

11-89

4.2

3.5

3.8

3.6

4 9

5.5

3.1

2.3

3.3

1.9

- 0.8

-3.6

9.4

12-89

3.5

2.9

3.1

2.9

3 9

4.4

2.2

1.3

2.0

0.6

-1. 7

-3. 8

2.3

-4.3

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

141,333
141.382
142,093
141,179
0 3

141,214
143,744
8.4

144,715
144,384
145,438
146,649
147,235

4.9

145.244

-5. 6 -15.1

146,340
145,804

5.6

5.2

5.5

5.5

6 7

7.4

5.7

5.4

6.6

6.2

5.4

5.5

13.4

15.4

39.2

5.2

4.8

5.1

5.1

6 2

6.7

5.2

4.8

5 .8

5.3

4.5

4.4

9.9

10.1

18.1

0.2

3-90

4.6

4.2

4.5

4.3

5 3

5.7

4.2

3.8

4 .6

4.0

3.1

2.8

6.8

6.2

9.9

-2. 3

- 4.7

3.7

3.3

3.5

3.3

4 1

4.4

2.9

2.4

3.0

2.3

1.3

0.8

3.7

2.6

4.4

-5.1

- 7.6 -10 . 5

• 3.0

2.6

2.7

2.5

3 2

3.4

2.0

1.5

1.9

1.2

0.2

-0.4

1.9

0.7

1.7

-6.0

-7.9

- 9.5

-8.5

10-88 11-88 12-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

©
O'
1

1-90
2-90

5-90

149,877
149.904
149,302
147.931P
1 4 6 ,843E

INITIAL MONTH
P- P R E L I MINARY
E- ESTIM A T E D




PR E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E BAN K OF ST. LOUIS
J U N E 13» 1990

9

H O U R L Y COMPENSATION, BUSINESS S ECTOR
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
T ERMINAL
QUARTER

INITIAL QUA R T E R
2-85

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1977*100
1-88

3-88

2-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

5.6

175.9

4-85

6.0

6.3

178.6

1-86

5.8

5.9

3-85

5.5

181.0
183.0

2-86

5.5

5.4

5.0

4.5

3-86

5.3

5.2

4.9

4.6

4.7

4-86

5.3

5.2

4.9

4.7

4.9

5.1

1-87

4.8

4.6

4.3

4.0

3.9

3.5

1.9

2-87

4.5

4.3

4.0

3.7

3.6

3.2

2.3

2.6

3-87

4.6

4.4

4.2

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.1

3.8

4.9

4-87

4.8

4.7

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.1

4.8

6.0

185.1
187.4
188.3
189.5
191.8
7.1

195.1
196.4

1-88

4.6

4.5

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.0

3.8

4.3

4.9

4.9

2.7

2-88

4.7

4.6

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.1

4.6

5.1

5.1

4.1

5.6

3-88

4.8

4.7

4.6

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.8

5.2

5.3

4.7

5.7

5.7

4-88

4.8

4.7

4.6

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.8

5.2

5.3

4.8

5.5

5.5

5.3

1-89

4.8

4.7

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.5

4.8

5.1

5.2

4.8

5.3

5.3

5.0

199.1
201.9
204.5
206.9

4.8

4.9

4.8

4.7

4.8

4.8

4.7

5.1

5.4

5.4

5.2

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.9

6.9

4.9

4.9

4.8

4.7

4.8

4.8

4.7

5.0

5 .3

5.3

5.1

5.5

5.5

5.4

5.4

5.8

4.6

4-89

5.0

4.9

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

5.1

5.3

5.4

5.1

5.5

5.5

5.4

5.5

5.7

5.1

5.6

4.9

4.9

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

5.0

5.3

5.3

5.1

5.4

5.4

5.3

5.3

5.5

5.0

5.1

4.7

2-85

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4 -87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

0
1

4.9

3-89

tr>

210.4

2-89

212.8
215.7
218.2

INITIAL Q U ARTER

P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K OF ST. L O U I S
J UNE 4» 1990

O U T P U T

P E R

H O U R

O F A L L P E R S O N S , B U S IN E S S

S E C T O R

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s o f C h a n g e )

T ERMINAL
QUARTER

INITIAL Q U A R T E R
2-85

3-85

3-85

3.4

4-85

2.3

1.1

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2 -87

3-87

4-87

1977*100
1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89
108.0

108.3

1-86

4.0

4.3

7.6

2-86

2.8

2.6

3.4

-0.7

3-86

1.9

1.5

1.6

-1.3

-1.8

4-86

1.7

1.3

1.4

-0.6

-0.5

0.7

1-87

1.5

1.2

1.3

-0.3

-0.1

0.7

0.7

2-87

1.7

1.4

1.5

0.3

0.5

1.3

1.6

2.6

3-87

1.9

1.7

1.8

0.8

1.2

1.9

2.3

3.1

3.7

4-87

2.0

1.8

1.9

1.1

1.4

2.1

2.5

3.0

3.3

2.9

110.3
110.1
109.6
109.8
110.0
110.7
111.7
112.5

1-88

2.0

1.9

2.0

1.3

1.6

2.2

2.5

2.9

3.0

2.7

2.5

2-88

1.7

1.5

1.6

0.9

1.1

1.6

1.7

1.9

1.7

1.1

0.2

-2.1

113.2
112.6

3-88

1.8

1.6

1.7

1.1

1.3

1.7

1.9

2.1

1.9

1.5

1.1

0.4

2.9

4-88

1.7

1.5

1.6

1.0

1.2

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.7

1.3

0.9

0.4

1.6

0.4

1-89

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.0

1.2

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.6

1.2

0.9

0.5

1.4

0.7

1.1

2-89

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.1

1.2

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.6

1.3

1.0

0.7

1.4

0.9

1.2

1.4

3-89

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.6

1.3

1.1

0.9

1.5

1.1

1.4

1.6

1.8

4-89

1.6

1.4

1.5

1.1

1.2

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.5

1.2

1.0

0.8

1.3

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.1

0.3

1-90

1.3

1.2

1.2

0.9

1.0

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.1

0.9

0.6

0.4

0.8

0.4

0.4

0.3

-0.1

-1.0

-2.4

2-85

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-8 7

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89




113.4
113.5
113.8
114.2
114.7
114.8
114.1

INITIAL QUARTER

P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K OF ST. L O U I S
J U N E At 1990

10

PRO DUC TIVITY,
RATIO

COMPENSATION,

AND

L ABOR

SCALE

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

1977-100

1982

C O S T S
RATIO

1983

1984

1985

1986

SCALE
1977-100

1987

1988

1989

SOURCEt U. S.

1990

DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED«

1ST QUARTER
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

U N IT

L A B O R C O S T S , B U S IN E S S

SE C T O R

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s o f C h a n g e )

T E R MINAL
QUARTER

INITIAL QUARTER
2-85

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

3-85

2.7

4-85

3.7

4.7

1-86

1.8

1.4

-1.9

2-86

2.7

2.7

1.7

5-86

3.4

3.6

3.2

5.9

6.4

4 -86

3.6

3.7

3.5

5.3

5.2

4.1

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1 9 7 7*100
1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2 -89

3-89

4-89

163.0
164.9
164.1
5.5

166.3
168.9
170.6

1-87

3.2

3.3

3.0

4.3

3.9

2.7

1.4

2-87

2.9

2.9

2.6

3.5

3.0

1.9

0.8

0.2

3-87

2.6

2.6

2.3

3.0

2.5

1.6

0.8

0.5

0.7

4 -87

2.8

2.8

2.6

3.2

2.9

2.2

1.7

1.8

2.6

171.2
171.3
171.6
4.5

173.5

1-88

2.5

2.5

2.3

2.8

2.5

1.8

1.4

1.3

1.7

2.2

0.0

2-88

3.0

3.0

2.8

3.4

3.1

2.7

2.4

2.7

3.3

4.1

4.0

8.1

3-88

3.0

3.0

2.8

3.3

3.1

2.7

2.5

2.6

3.1

3.7

3.5

5.3

2.5

4-88

3.1

3.1

3.0

3.5

3.3

2.9

2.8

3.0

3.4

4.0

3.9

5.2

3.8

5.0

173.5
176.9
178.0
180.2

1-89

3.2

3.2

3.1

3.5

3.3

3.0

2.9

3.1

3.5

4.0

3.9

4.8

3.8

4.4

3.8

2 -89

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.6

3.4

3.2

3.1

3.3

3.7

4.1

4.0

4.9

4.1

4.6

4.4

4 .9

3-89

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.6

3.4

3.2

3.1

3.3

3.6

4.0

3.9

4.6

3.9

4.3

4.0

4.1

181.9
184.1
3.3

185.6

4-89

3.4

3.4

3.3

3.7

3.6

3.3

3.3

3.4

3.8

4.1

4.1

4.7

4.1

4.4

4.3

4.4

4.2

5 .0

1-90

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.6

3.7

4.1

4.4

4.4

4.9

4.5

4 .8

4 .8

5.1

5.1

6.0

7.0

2-85

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4 -87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2 -89

3-89

4-89




187.9
191.1

INITIAL QUARTER

P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K OF ST. L O U I S
J U N E 4, 1990

11

G R O S S N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
TER M INAL
QUARTER

I N ITIAL Q U A R T E R
2 -85

5-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

2-8 8

5-88

4-8 8

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

B I L L I O N S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES
4 , 0 47.0

5-85

7.0

4-85

6.6

6.2

1-86

6.8

6.7

7.5

2-86

5.4

4.9

4.5

1.5

5-86

5.5

5.1

4.7

5.5

5.7

4-86

5.5

4.9

4.6

5.7

5.0

4.2

4,107.9
4, 181.5
4,194.7
4 , 255.5

1-87

5.8

5.6

5.4

5.0

6.2

6.5

8.8

2-87

6.1

5.9

5.9

5.6

6.7

7.0

8.5

8.2

5-87

6.5

6.2

6.2

6.1

7.0

7.4

8.4

8.5

8.4

4-87

6.6

6.5

6.6

6.5

7.4

7.7

8.6

8.5

8.7

9.0

1-88

6.6

6.5

6.6

6.5

7.2

7.5

8.2

8.0

7.9

7.7

6.5

2-88

6.7

6.7

6.8

6.7

7.4

7.6

8.2

8.1

8.1

8.0

7.5

8. 6

5-88

6.8

6.8

6.8

6.8

7.4

7.6

8.1

8.0

00
©

4,297.3

7.9

7.5

8.1

7.5

4-88

6.8

6.8

6.9

6.9

7.4

7.6

8.1

7.9

7.9

7.8

7.5

7.9

7.5

7.5

1-89

6.9

6.9

7.0

6.9

7. S

7.6

8.0

7.9

7.9

7.8

7.6

7.9

7.6

7.7

7.9

2-89

6.9

6.9

7.0

6.9

7.4

7.6

7.9

7.8

7.8

7.7

7.5

7.7

7.5

7.5

7.5

7.1

5-89

6.9

6.9

6.9

6.9

7.5

7.5

7.8

7.7

7.6

7.5

7.5

7.5

7.5

7.2

7.1

6.7

6.2

4-89

6.8

6.7

6.8

6.7

7.1

7.5

7.5

7.4

7.5

7.2

7.0

7.1

6.8

6.7

6.4

6.0

5.4

4.6

1-90

6.8

6.8

6.8

6.8

7.1

7.2

7.5

7.4

7.5

7.2

7.0

7.1

6.8

6.7

6.6

6.5

6.0

5 .8

7.1

2-85

5-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4 -87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

4, 588.8
4 , 475.9
4 , 566.6
4 , 665.8
4,759.8
4,838.5
4,926.9
5 , 0 17.5
5,115.1
5,201.7
5 , 2 81.0
5 , 5 40.2
5,433.1

INITIAL QUA R T E R

PR E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S
JU N E 21, 1990

G R O S S N A T IO N A L P R O D U C T

IN

1982 D O L L A R S

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s o f C h a n g e )

TE R M I N A L
QUARTER

2-85

5-85

5-85

4.1

4-85

5.5

5.0

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

INITIAL Q U A R T E R
ANNUAL RATES
2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88

2-88

B I L L I O N S OF
DOLLARS
5-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89
3,635.8

3,662.4

1-86

4.5

4.7

6.6

2-86

2.9

2.5

2.5

-1.8

5-86

2.5

2.1

1.8

-0.5

0.8

4-86

2.5

2.1

1.9

0.4

1.6

2.5

1-87

2.9

2.7

2.6

1.7

2.8

5.8

5.4

2-87

5.1

2.9

2.9

2.2

5.2

4.0

4.9

4.4

3,721.1
3,704.6
5,712.4
5,753.6
3,783.0
3,823.5

5-87

5.5

5.2

5.2

2.7

5.6

4.5

5.0

4.8

5.3

4-87

5.6

5.6

5.7

5.5

4.1

4.8

5.4

5.4

5.9

6.6

1-88

5.7

5.6

5.7

5.4

4.1

4.7

5.1

5.1

5.3

5.3

4.0

2-88

5.7

5.6

5.7

5.4

4.0

4.5

4.9

4.8

4.9

4.8

5.9

3.7

3,872.8
5,955.6
5,974.8
4,010.7

5-88

5.6

5.6

5.7

5.4

4.0

4.4

4.6

4.5

4.6

4.4

5.6

5.4

5.2

4-88

5.6

5.5

5.6

5.5

5.8

4.2

4.4

4.5

4.2

4 .0

5.4

5.2

2.9

2.7

1-89

3.6

5.5

5.6

5.5

5.8

4.1

4.5

4.2

4.2

4.0

5.5

5.5

5.2

5.2

5.7

2-89

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.7

4.0

4.1

4.0

4.0

3.8

5.5

5.2

5.0

5.0

5.1

2.5

4,042.7
4,069.4
4,106.8
4,152.5

5-89

5.5

5.4

5.5

5.5

5.7

5.9

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.7

5.3

5.1

5.0

5.0

5.1

2.8

5.0

4-89

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.1

5.5

5.7

5.8

3.6

3.6

3.4

3.0

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.2

2.0

1.1

1-90

5.5

5.2

5.2

5.0

5.4

5.5

5.6

3.5

3.4

3.2

2.9

2.7

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.1

2.0

1.5

1.9

2-85

5-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89




4,162.9
4,174.1
4,193.4

I N ITIAL QUA R T E R

P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S
J U N E 21, 1990

12

GROSS
RATIO

SCALE

1982

N A T IO N A L

PRODUCT

QUARTERLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987
S O U R C E «

P E R C E N T A G E S

A R E

L A T E S T

P L O T T E D «

D A T A




A N N U A L

R A T E S

1 S T

O F

C H A N G E

FO R

P E R I O D S

RATIO

1988
U . S .

1989
D E P A R T M E N T

SCALE

1990
O F

C O M M ER C E

I N D I C A T E D .

O U A R T E R

PREPARED

13

BY

F EDERAL

R E S E R V E

BAN K

OF

ST.

LOUI S

GENERAL P R I C E
R A T I O

I NDEX*

S C A L E

R A T I O

S C A L E

1982-100

1982

1982-100

Î983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

*AS USED IN NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS
S O URCE» U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt 1ST QUARTER
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

IM P L IC IT

P R IC E D E F L A T O R F O R G R O S S N A T IO N A L P R O D U C T
(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s o f C h a n g e )

TERMINAL
Q UARTER

INITIAL Q U ARTER
2-85

5-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-8 7

5-87

4-87

1982 * 100
1-88

2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89
111.5

5-85

2.6

4— 85

2.9

5.5

1-86

2.2

2.0

0.7

2-86

2.4

2.5

1.8

2.9

5-86

2.9

5.0

2.9

4.0

5.0

4-86

2.7

2.7

2.6

5.2

5.4

1.8

1-87

2*8

2.8

2.7

5.2

5.5

2.5

5.2

2-87

2.9

2.9

2.9

5.5

5.4

2.9

5.5

5.8

5-87

2.9

2.9

2.9

5.2

5.5

2.9

5.5

5.5

2.8

4-87

2.8

2.9

2.8

5.1

5.2

2.8

5.0

5.0

2.6

2.4

1-88

2.8

2.8

2.7

5.0

5.0

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.4

2.2

2.0

2-88

2.9

5.0

2.9

5.2

5.2

5.0

5.2

5.2

5.0

5.1

5.4

4.8

5-88

5.0

5.1

5.1

5.5

5.5

5.1

5.5

5.4

5.5

5.4

5.7

4.6

4.4

4-88

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.4

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.6

4.0

4.6

4.5

4.7

1-89

5.2

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.4

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.7

4.0

4.4

4.5

4.5

4 .0

2-89

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.6

5.6

5.5

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.8

4.1

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.5

4.6

112.2
112.4
115.2
114.6
115.1
116.0
117.1
117.9
118.6
119.2
120.6
121.9
125.5
124.5
125.9
126.9

5-89

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.6

5.5

5.6

5.7

5.6

5.7

5.9

4.5

4.2

4.1

5.9

5.9

5.2

4-89

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.4

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.7

5.8

4.1

4.0

5.9

5.7

5.7

5.2

5.2

1-90

5.4

5.4

5.5

5.6

5.7

5.6

5.7

5.8

5.8

5.9

4.0

4.5

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.1

5.9

4.5

5.4

2-8 5

5-85

4 -85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

2 -88

5-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4 -89




127.9
129.6

INITIAL QUARTER

P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B ANK O F ST. L O U I S
JU N E 21. 1990

14

P E R S O N A L C O N S U M P T I O N E X P E N D I T U R E S IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a ) Rates of C h a n g e )
TERMINAL
QUARTER

2-85

5-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

INITIAL Q U A RTER
ANNUAL RATES
2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

BILLIONS OF
DOLLARS

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89
2.66 1 . 4

5-85

9.9

4-85

7.9

6.0

1-86

7.0

5.6

5.1

2-86

6.2

5.0

4.5

2*7 0 0 . 4
2.734.3
2.761.0

4.0

2.826.0

5-86

6.9

6.2

6.2

6.8

9.8

4— 86

6.8

6.2

6.2

6.6

7.9

6.2

2.868.5
2.914.7

1-87

6.8

6.2

6.3

6.6

7.5

6.4

6.6

2-87

7.2

6.9

7.0

7.4

8. 5

7.8

8. 6

10.7

5-87

7.5

7.2

7.3

7.7

8. 5

8.1

8.8

9.9

9.2

4-87

7.1

6.8

6.9

7.1

7.6

7.2

7.5

7.8

6.4

5.6

1-88

7.2

6.9

7.1

7.3

7.8

7.5

7.7

8.0

7.1

6.1

8.7

2-88

7.2

7.0

7.1

7.5

7.7

7.5

7.7

7.9

7.2

6.6

8 .0

7.4

5-88

7.5

7.0

7.1

7.3

7.7

7.5

7.6

7.8

7.5

6.8

7.9

7.5

7.5

4-88

7.5

7.1

7.2

7.4

7.7

7.5

7.6

7.8

7.3

7.0

7.8

7.5

7.6

7.6

1-89

7.5

7.1

7.2

7.3

7.6

7.4

7.6

7.7

7.5

7.0

7.7

7.4

7.4

7.4

2.989.4
3*0 5 5 . 9
3.08 3 . 3
3*148.1
3*2 0 4 . 9
3. 265.4
3.3 2 4 . 0
3*58 1 . 4

7.1

5.4 4 4 . 1

2-89

7.5

7.1

7.2

7.4

7.6

7.5

7.6

7.7

7.5

7.1

7.7

7.5

7.5

7.5

7.4

7.6

5-89

7.5

7.1

7.2

7.4

7.6

7.5

7.6

7.7

7.4

7.1

7.7

7.5

7.5

7.5

7.5

7.6

7.6

4-89

7.2

7.0

7.1

7.2

7.5

7.5

7.4

7.4

7.1

6.9

7.5

7.1

7.1

7.0

6.8

6.7

6.3

4.9

1-90

7.5

7.1

7.2

7.5

7.6

7.4

7.5

7.6

7.5

7.1

7.5

7.4

7.4

7.3

7.5

7.5

7.2

7.0

9.2

2-85

5-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4- 8 8

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

5*508.1
5*550.6
5*629.4

INITIAL QUARTER

P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S
J U N E 21» 1990

P E R S O N A L C O N S U M P T IO N

E X P E N D IT U R E S IN

1982 D O L L A R S

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s o f C h a n g e )

T E RMINAL
Q U ARTER
2-85

5-85

4-85

1-8*

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

3-85

6.8

4-85

4.5

1.9

1-86

4.2

5.0

2-86

4.1

5.2

5.8

3.6

3-86

4.5

5.7

4.4

4.5

5.4

4-86

4.0

5.4

3.8

5.7

5.8

2.2

1-87

5.4

2.9

5.1

2.8

2.5

1.1

0.1

2-87

5.6

3.1

3.3

3.2

5.1

2.5

2.4

4.8

INITIAL QU A R T E R
ANNUAL RATES
2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88

2-88

BILLIONS OF
DOLLARS
5-88

4- 8 8

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

2.575.9
2*586.9
4.1

2*410.9
2*432.4
2*464.4
2*477.8
2*4 7 8 . 3
2*5 0 7 . 7

3-87

5.7

5.5

3.5

5.4

5.4

2.9

3.2

4.8

4.7

4-87

5.3

2.9

3.0

2.8

2.7

2.2

2.2

2.9

2.0

2*536.5
-0.7

2.532.3

1-88

3.5

5.2

3.4

3.3

3.2

2.9

5.0

5.7

3.4

2.7

6.2

2-88

3.4

3.1

3.5

5.2

3.1

2.8

2.9

5.5

3.2

2.7

4.4

2.5

5-88

5.4

3.2

3.3

3.2

5.1

2.9

3.0

3.5

3.2

2.8

4.0

2.9

2.570.8
2.586.8
3.3

2.608.1

4-88

3.4

3.1

3.3

3.2

5.1

2.9

3.0

3.4

3.2

2.9

3.8

3.0

3.2

5.0

1-89

3.5

3.1

3.2

3.1

5.0

2.8

2.9

3.2

3.0

2.7

3.4

2.7

2.8

2.5

2.0

2-89

3.2

3.0

5.1

3.0

2.9

2.7

2.8

5.1

2.9

2.6

3.2

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.0

1.9

5-89

3.4

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.1

3.0

5.0

5.3

3.2

5.0

5.5

3.1

3.2

5.1

3.2

3.8

5 .6

4-89

3.2

3.0

3.1

3.0

3.0

2.8

2.8

3.1

2.9

2.7

5.1

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.5

2.7

3.0

0.5

1-90

3.1

2.9

3.0

2.9

2.9

2.7

2.7

3.0

2.8

2.6

5.0

2.6

2.6

2.4

2 .3

2 .4

2.4

1.1

1.6

2-85

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4-8 8

1-89

2- 8 9

3-89

4-89




2 * 627.7
2*6 4 1 . 0
2.6 5 3 . 7
2.690.1
2. 4 9 3 . 7
2.7 0 4 . 3

INITIAL QUARTER

P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K OF ST. L O U I S
J U N E 21» 1990

15

G R O S S P R I VATE D O M E S T I C I N V E S T M E N T IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
TERMINAL
Q UARTER

2-85

5-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

3-85

-14.8

4-85

0.6

18.7

1-86

6.5

19.1

2-86

0.8

6.5

1.0 -14.7

3-86

-0.6

3.4

-1. 3 - 1 0.3

-5.7

4-86

-0.4

2.8

-0.8

-6.8

-2.5

0.7

1-87

1.8

4.9

2.3

-1 . 6

3.2

8.0

15.8

2-87

2.4

5.1

3.0

0.0

4.1

7.6

11.2

1-87

B I L LIONS O F
D O LLARS

INITIAL Q U ARTER
A NNUAL R A T E S
2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89
626.7
654.1

19.4

683.8
657.2
647.7
648.8
673.1
6.7

684.1

3-87

2.7

5.1

5.3

0.9

4.3

7.0

9.1

5.9

5.2

4— 87

5.7

8.3

7.1

5.4

9.2

12.4

15.6

15.5

20.1

1-88

4.1

6.2

4.9

3.2

6.1

8.2

9.7

8.3

8.8

10.7 -10 . 7

2-88

4.7

6.7

5.5

4.1

6.7

8.6

10.0

8.9

9.4

10.8

-0.3

11.2

3-88

5.3

7.2

6.2

4.9

7.4

9.1

10.4

9.5

10.1

11.3

3.8

11.9

4-88

4.2

5.8

4.8

3.6

5.6

6.9

7.7

6.6

6.6

6.9

0.4

4.4

1.2

-9. 2

1-89

4.5

6.0

5.1

4.0

5.9

7.1

7.9

6.9

7.0

7.3

2.1

5.6

3.8

- 0.4

9.2

2-89

4.4

5.8

5.0

3.9

5.6

6.7

7.4

6.5

6.4

6.6

2.2

5.0

3.6

0.7

6.0

2.8

692.8
37.1

749.7
728.8
748.4
12.7

771.1
752.8
769.6
775.0

3-89

4.3

5.6

4.8

3.8

5.4

6.4

6.9

6.0

5.9

6.0

2.2

4.5

3.3

1.0

4.7

2.5

2.1

4-89

3.8

5.0

4.2

3.2

4.6

5.5

5.9

5.0

4.9

4.8

1.4

3.2

1.9

-0.1

2.3

0.1

-1.3

-4. 5

1-90

3.1

4.2

3.4

2.4

3.7

4.4

4.7

3.8

5.5

5.4

0.2

1.6

0.3

-1. 6

0.0

- 2.2

-3. 8

-6.6

-8. 6

2 -85

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

779.1
770.1
752.9

INITIAL QUARTER

P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S
J U N E 21» 1990

G R O S S P R IV A T E D O M E S T IC

IN V E S T M E N T

IN

1982 D O L L A R S

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s o f C h a n g e )

T E RM I N A L
Q U ARTER
3-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

INITIAL Q U ARTER
ANN U A L RAT E S
2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88

- 17 . 0

2-88

BIL L I O N S OF
DOL L A R S
3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

618.1

4 -85

0.2

20.8

1-86

5.9

19.6

2-86

-0.8

5.3

3-86

- 2. 8

1.1

4-86

- 3.4

-0 . 4

1-87

-0.1

3.0

2-87

0.7

3-87

1.6

4-87
1-88

648.0
676.1

18.5
-1.8 - 1 8.5

642.3

-4.7 - 14.5 -10.3

625.1

-5.1 - 1 1.8

-8.3

-6.2

-0.2

- 4.4

0.8

6.9

21.8

3.5

0.9

- 2.3

2.2

6.8

13.9

6.6

4.2

2.1

-0.4

3.6

7.5

12.4

8.0

9.5

4.4

7.1

5.5

3.8

8.0

12.1

17.2

15.7

20.6

32.8

3.2

5.5

3.9

2.3

5.6

8.6

11.8

9.4

10.3

10.8

-7.6

2-88

3.3

5.4

3.9

2.4

5.4

7.9

10.4

8.2

8.6

8 .4

-2.1

3.7

3-88

3.9

5.9

4.6

3.3

6.1

8.3

10.6

8.8

9.3

9.2

2.3

7.7

11.8

735.6

4-88

2.6

4.3

3.0

1.7

4.0

5.8

7.4

5.4

5.3

4.4

-1. 7

0.4

-1. 2 - 1 2.7

709.1

615.2
646.3
656.7
671.7
721.1
707.0
713.5

1-89

2.9

4.5

3.3

2.2

4.3

5.9

7.5

5.6

5.5

4.8

0.0

2.0

1.4

- 3.4

6.9

2-89

2.7

4.1

3.0

1.9

3.9

5.3

6.5

4.9

4.7

4.0

-0.1

1.4

0.9

- 2.5

3.0

-0.7

3-89

2.7

4.1

3.0

2.0

3.8

5.0

6.1

4.7

4.5

5.9

0.3

1.7

1.2

-1.2

2.9

1.0

2.7

4-89

2.3

3.6

2.6

1.6

3.2

4.3

5.3

3.9

5.6

3.0

- 0.3

0.8

0.4

-1.8

1.2

-0. 7

-0.7

-4.0

1-90

1.8

3.0

2.0

1.1

2.5

3.5

4.3

3.0

2.6

2.0

-1 . 0

-0.1

- 0.7

- 2.6

-0.4

-2. 2

-2. 7

-5.2

-6. 5

2-85

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89




721.1
719.8
724.6
717.3
705.4

INITIAL QUARTER

PR E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S
JU N E 21 * 1990

16

G O V E R N M E N T P U R C H A S E S O F G O O D S A N D SERVICES IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
billions of

T E R MINAL
Q UARTER
2-85

3-85

4-85

1-86

3-85

20.6

4-85

14.2

8.1

1-86

8.2

2.4

-3.0

2-86

8.4

4.6

3.0

9.2

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

INITIAL QUARTER
ANNUAL RATES
2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88

DOLLARS
2-88

3-88

4-8 8

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89
8 4 0.2
856.7
850.3
86 9 . 3

3-86

7.8

4.8

3.7

7.2

5.2

4-86

7.1

4.6

3.8

6.1

4.6

4.0

1-87

7.3

5.2

4.7

6.7

5.8

6.1

8. 3

2-87

6.9

5.1

4.6

6.2

5.5

5.6

6.4

4.4

88 0 . 3
888.9
906.9
916.8

3-87

7.0

5.4

5.0

6.4

5.8

6.0

6.7

5.9

7.3

4-87

6.9

5.5

5.2

6.4

5.9

6.1

6.6

6.0

6.8

6.3

933.2
947.5

1-88

6.2

4.8

4.5

5.5

4.9

4.9

5.1

4.3

4.2

2.7

-0.8

2-88

6.2

5.0

4.7

5.5

5.1

5.1

5.3

4.7

4.7

3.9

2.7

6.2

3-88

5.7

4.5

4.2

4.9

4.4

4.4

4.4

3.8

3.6

2.7

1.6

2.7

-0.6

4-88

6.9

5.9

5.7

6.5

6.2

6.4

6.7

6.4

6.8

6.6

6.7

9.4

11.0

23.9

945.7
960.1
958.6
1 »011.4
1 »016.0

1-89

6.5

5.6

5.4

6.1

5.8

5.9

6.1

5.8

6.0

5.8

5.7

7.4

7.8

12.3

1.8

2-89

6.5

5.7

5.5

6.2

5.9

6.0

6.2

6.0

6.2

6.0

5.9

7.3

7.6

10.5

4.4

6.9

3-89

6.3

5.5

5.3

5.9

5.6

5.7

5.8

5.6

5.7

5.5

5.4

6.5

6.5

8.4

3.6

4.6

2.2

4-89

6.4

5.6

5.4

6.0

5.8

5.8

6.0

5.8

5.9

5.8

5.7

6.6

6.7

8 .2

4.6

5.6

4.9

7.7

1-90

6.5

5.8

5.7

6.2

6.0

6.1

6.3

6.1

6.2

6.1

6.1

7.0

7.1

8.5

5.6

6.6

6.5

8.6

9.6

2-85

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1 »033.2
1 »038.9
1 »058.3
1 »082.9

INITIAL QUARTER

P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S
J U N E 21» 1990

G O V E R N M E N T P U R C H A S E S O F G O O D S A N D S E R V I C E S I N 1982 D O L L A R S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
T E R MINAL
QUARTER

2-85

3-85

3-85

19.8

4-85

10.3

1.6

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

I N ITIAL QUARTER
ANNUAL RATES
2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88

2-88

3-88

4-8 8

1-89

BI L L I O N S O F
DOLLARS
2-89

3-89

4-89
749.8
752.7

1-86

5.1

-1.5

-4.5

2-86

6.2

2.0

2.3

9.5

744.1
761.2

3-86

5.4

2.1

2.2

5.8

2.1

4-86

5.4

2.8

3.1

5.8

3.9

5.8

1-87

4.7

2.4

2.5

4.4

2.7

3.0

0.3

2-87

4.0

1.9

2.0

3.3

1.8

1.7

-0.3

765.2
776 . 0
776.6
-0.9

774.9

3-87

4.0

2.2

2.3

3.5

2.3

2.4

1.3

1.8

4.5

4-87

4.1

2.5

2.6

3.6

2.7

2.8

2.1

2.7

4.5

4.5

783.5
792.1

1-88

2.9

1.3

1.3

2.1

1.0

0.9

-0.1

-0.2

0.0

-2.1

-8.3

2-88

3.0

1.6

1.6

2.3

1.4

1.3

0.6

0.7

1.0

-0.1

-2.3

4.1

3-88

2.5

1.1

1.1

1.7

0.9

0.7

0.0

-0.1

0.1

-1.0

-2.7

0.2

4-88

3.4

2.3

2.3

3.0

2.3

2.4

1.9

2.2

2.7

2.3

1.8

5.4

6.1

16.7

1-89

3.0

1.9

1.9

2.4

1.8

1.8

1.3

1.5

1.8

1.4

0.8

3.2

2.9

6.2

-3.3

2-89

3.1

2.1

2.1

2.7

2.1

2.1

1.7

1.9

2.3

1.9

1.5

3.6

3.5

6.0

1.0

5.4

775.1
783.0
-3. 6

775.9
806.4
7 99 . 7
810.3

3-89

2.8

1.8

1.8

2.3

1.7

1.7

1.4

1.5

1.7

1.4

0.9

2.6

2.3

3.8

-0.2

1.4

-2.4

4-89

2.8

1.8

1.9

2.3

1.8

1.8

1.5

1.6

1.8

1.5

1.1

2.6

2.3

3.5

0.5

1.8

0.0

2 .6

1-90

2.8

1.9

2.0

2.4

1.9

1.9

1.6

1.7

2.0

1.7

1.4

2.7

2.5

3.5

1.1

2.2

1.2

3.0

3.4

2-85

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-8 8

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89




805.3
810.4
817.3

INITIAL QUARTER

P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S
J U N E 21» 1990

17

D I S P O S A B L E P E R S O N A L I N C O M E IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
T E RMINAL
Q U ARTER

2-85

3-85

4—8 5

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

B I L L I O N S OF
DOL L A R S

INITIAL Q U A R T E R
ANNUAL RATES
2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89
2*840.0

3-85

-1. 5

4-85

3.5

8. 6

1-86

5.1

8.6

8.5

2-86

5.5

7.9

7.5

6.5

3-86

4.8

6.5

5.8

4.4

2.4

4-86

4.9

6.2

5.7

4.7

3.8

5.3

1-87

5.7

7.0

6.7

6.2

6.1

8.0

10.8

2-87

4.9

5.9

5.4

4.8

4.4

5.0

4.9

-0.6

3-87

5.6

6.5

6.2

5.9

5.7

6.6

7.0

5.2

4-87

6.3

7.2

7.0

6.8

6.8

7.7

8.4

7.6

11.9

12.4

1-88

6.3

7.2

7.0

6.8

6.9

7.6

8.1

7.4

10.3

9.7

2-88

6.4

7.2

7.0

6.9

6.9

7.6

8.0

7.4

9.5

8.9

7.1

7.2

3-88

6.6

7.3

7.2

7.1

7.1

7.8

8.1

7.7

9.4

8 .9

7.8

8.2

9.1

4-88

6.8

7.5

7.4

7.3

7.3

7.9

8.2

7.9

9.3

8.9

8.1

8.4

9.0

8.9

2,899.5
2 »959.2
3»006.5
3 »024.3
3.063.4
3,142.8
3,138.1
11.3

3,223.5
3,319.4
7.0

3,376.4
3,435.9
3,511.7
3,587.4

1-89

7.1

7.8

7.7

7.6

7.7

8.3

8.6

8.3

9.7

9.4

8.8

9.3

10.0

10.4

11.9

2-89

7.1

7.7

7.6

7.5

7.6

8.1

8.4

8.1

9.3

9.0

8.4

8. 7

9.1

9.1

9.1

3,689.5
6.5

3,747.7

3-89

7.0

7.6

7.5

7.5

7.5

8.0

8.2

8.0

9.0

8 .7

8.1

8. 3

8 .5

8.4

8.2

6.5

6.5

4-89

7.0

7.6

7.5

7.4

7.5

7.9

8.1

7.9

8.8

8.5

8.0

8.1

8.3

8.1

7.9

6.6

6.7

7.0

1-90

7.2

7.7

7.7

7.6

7.7

8.1

8.3

8.1

8.9

8. 7

8.2

8.4

8.6

8 .5

8.4

7.5

7.9

8.6

10.2

2-85

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

3,806.8
3,871.3
3,966.5

INITIAL Q U ARTER

P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B ANK O F ST. L O U I S
JU N E 21» 1990

D I S P O S A B L E P E R S O N A L I N C O M E I N 1982 D O L L A R S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
TERMINAL
Q U ARTER
2-85

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

INITIAL QUAR T E R
ANNUAL RATES
2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88

3-85

-4 . 3

4 -85

-0.1

4.4

1-86

2.4

5.9

7.4

2-86

3.3

6.0

6.8

6.2

3-86

2.3

4.0

3.9

2.2

-1.7

4-86

2.1

3.5

3.3

1.9

-0.2

1.4

1-87

2.4

3.6

3.4

2.4

1.2

2.7

4.0

2-87

1.3

2.2

1.8

0.7

-0.6

-0.2

-1.0

-5.8

3-87

1.9

2.7

2.5

1.7

0.8

1.5

1.5

0.2

6.7

4-87

2.5

3.3

3.1

2.5

1.9

2.7

3.0

2.7

7.2

2-88

3-88

B I L L I O N S OF
DOLLA R S
1-89

4-88

2-89

3-89

4-89

2,535.4
2,562.8
2 , 6 09.2
2 , 6 48.6
2,637.3
2,646.2
2 , 672.3
2 ,632.5
2,675.6
2 * 726.2

7.8

1-88

2.7

3.4

3.3

2.8

2.3

3.0

3.3

3.2

6.4

6.2

4.6

2-88

2.7

3.3

3.2

2.7

2.3

2.9

3.2

3.0

5.3

4.9

3.5

2.4

3-88

2.8

3.4

3.4

3.0

2.6

3.2

3.4

3.3

5.3

4.9

3.9

3.6

4.9

4-88

2.9

3.5

3.4

3.1

2.8

3.3

3.5

3.5

5.1

4.8

4.0

3.8

4.6

4.3

1-89

3.2

3.7

3.7

3.4

3.1

3.6

3.9

3.8

5.3

5.1

4.5

4.5

5.2

5.4

6.6

2-89

3.0

3.5

3.5

3.2

2.9

3.4

3.6

3.5

4.7

4.5

3.9

3.8

4.1

3.9

3.7

0.8

3-89

3.1

3.6

3.5

3.3

3.0

3.4

3.6

3.6

4.7

4.5

4.0

3.9

4.2

4.0

3.9

2.6

4.4

4-89

3.1

3.5

3.5

3.2

3.0

3.4

3.5

3.5

4.5

4.2

3.8

3.7

3.9

3.7

3.6

2.6

3.4

2.4

1-90

3.0

3.5

3.4

3.2

3.0

3.3

3.5

3.4

4.3

4.1

3.7

3.5

3.7

3.5

3.4

2.6

3.1

2.5

2.5

2-85

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89




2 ,757.2
2,773.3
2,806.4
2,835.9
2,881.7
2,887.6
2 , 919.2
2,936.9
2,955.4

INITIAL Q U ARTER

P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B ANK O F ST. L O U I S
J U N E 21» 1990

18

C O R P O R A T E PROFITS AFTER TAXES
(Cooixniftded A n n u a l Rates <rf C h a a g e )
TERMINAL
OUARTER

BILLIONS O F
DOLLARS
ANNUAL R A TES

INITIÄL QUARTER
2 -85

3-85

17.1

<4-85

Ï8.5

3-85

4-85

1-8*

2-86

3-86

4-8 *

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

*-88

3-88

1-89

2-8 9

3-89

4-89
1 29.2

15.9

135.2

1—86

-1 1 . 9 -23.* -51.4

2-66

- 1 8.5 -18.1 -32.4

-5. 9

3—86

-5 . 4 -10.3 -18.6

5.4

18.0

4-86

-1. 7

5.7

18.4

18.8

112.9

-5.1 -10.5

111.2
115.5
121.0

1-87

3.3

1.1

-2.3

16.4

24 . 5

28.5

39.1

"2-87

5.9

4.4

2.1

18.4

25.4

27.9

32.7

26.7

131.4

3-87

8.2

7.1

5. 4

19.9

25.5

28.0

31.2

27.4

28.1

4-87

7.5

6.5

4.9

17.1

21.5

22.2

23.1

18.1

14.1

139.4
148.3
1 48.9

1.*

1-88

9.*

8.9

7.7

15.0

23.1

23.9

25.*

21.7

20.1

16.3

33.0

2-88

18.4

9.8

8.8

15.*

22.5

23.2

23.5

21.1

19.7

17.1

25.*

3-88

10.8

14.3

5.4

18.7

21.6

22.2

22.7

20.2

15.0

16.8

22.3

17.3

16.0

*-« 8

10.4

5.5

5.1

17.4

20.1

28.3

20.5

18.®

1*.6

14.5

17.9

13.3

10.7

159.9
1*6» 9

18.7

173.2
175 . 6

5.7

173 . 6

1-89

9.3

8.8

8.0

15.4

17.*

17.5

17.4

14.9

13.4

11.1

13.1

8.*

5.4

2-85

*-.7

*.1

5.1

11.*

13.2

12.7

12.1

9.5

7.5

4.8

5.4

8.*

-3.5

3-85

4.9

4.2

3.2

8.5

10.2

9.*

8 .8

*.1

4 .«

1.4

1.3

-3.2

4-89

5.3

4.*

3,8

5.1

10.3

5.7

5.«

*.*

4.8

2.5

2.*

-1.1

-4 .1

-7.7 -10.8 -12.8

-5.4

11.8

1-9«

5. 3

4.*

3.8

8.5

5.5

5.4

8.7

*.4

4 .8

2.7

2.8

-8.4

-2.9

- 5.7

-7.5

-6.7

-2.1

8.2

4.7

2-85

3-85

4-85

1-8*

2-84

3-8*

4-86

l-<87

2-87

3-87

4-67

1-88

2-68

3 -88

4-68

1-65

2-65

3-85

4-85

-4.5

8.5

-5.2 -15.8 - 2 5.8

161.1

-7. * - 1 2 . 0 - 1 7 . 2 - 2 2 . 5 - 1 9 . 9

152.4
156.7
158.5

I NI T I A L Q U A R T E R

P R E P A R E D 8 Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S
J U N E 21» 199 0

H IS T O

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e r c e ,

i n
a r e

1 9 8 3 ,

a n d

i n f o r m
n

r

a t e s
a n d

a

A N D

s e r i e s

1 9 8 6 - 8 9 :1 1

E s t i m

a l

IN C O M E

t h e

r

s i n e s s .

1 9 8 6 ,

r e s p
T h e

a t e s

t a b

R IC A L

4

) ,

a n d

p

B u r e a u

a s h i n g t o n ,

r i c e s ,
o

f

E c o n o m

D . C .

19

ic

2 0 2 3 0 .

t o
A

l y s i s ,

U

. S .

In c o m

e

INVENTORIES COMPARED WITH MONTHLY
MA NUFACTURING AND TRADE

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

SOURCE:
« B EG IN N IN G

IN 1982,

SALES

1987

1988

1989

1990

U.S.DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

INVENTORY DATA REFLECT CHANGES IN ESTIMATION PROCEDURES.

SHADED AREAS REPRESENT PERIODS OF BU SIN ESS RECESSIO NS.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED;




APRIL PRELIMINARY
PREPARED

20

BY

FEDERAL

RESERVE

BANK

OF

ST.

LOUIS