Full text of National Economic Trends : January 2008
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NationalEconomicTrends January 2008 Convergence Across States and People I ncome inequality has been and continues to be a major population in 1969 to below 4 percent in 2005. Conversely, public policy topic. With respect to U.S. states, the states growing rapidly enough to move up in the overall common wisdom is that poorer states tend to grow faster ranking of states’ income were gaining population, contributthan richer states and, as a result, per capita incomes of poor ing to convergence. Colorado was the 22nd state in terms of states and rich states are converging and will continue to PCPI in 1969 and climbed to the 9th place by 2005. During converge in the future.1 We argue that such an assessment is the same period, Colorado’s population share increased from quite possibly misleading. 1.1 to 1.6 percent.2 We analyze how the distribution of per capita personal Contrary to previous findings of convergence across income (PCPI), in percentage differences from the U.S. states, our finding of a twin-peaked long-run distribution average, evolves over time for the period 1969-2005. We indicates that state incomes will cluster at different levels summarize the dynamics with the corresponding long-run rather than converge. However, weighting each state by its distribution. A long-run distribution with a single-peak is population produces a nearly single-peaked long-run districonsistent with convergence. A long-run distribution with bution. In other words, although there is continued divergence multiple peaks indicates that, in the long-run, there will be across U.S. states, there is convergence across people, driven groups of states that tend to cluster at different levels of by migration to states experiencing relative income gains. income. The gray line in the chart is the long-run distribu—Riccardo DiCecio and Charles S. Gascon tion of income across states. The lowest peak corresponds 1 See Gomme, Paul and Rupert, Peter. “Per Capita Income Growth and to a PCPI 19.2 percent below the U.S. average. The highest Disparity in the United States, 1929-2003.” Federal Reserve Bank of peak corresponds to a PCPI 3.7 percent below the crossCleveland Commentary, August 15, 2004. sectional average. In constructing this distribution, the income 2 In general, the Sun Belt states experienced relative population and income of any state, regardless of population, is treated the same as gains, while the Rust Belt states experienced relative declines in income and any other state. population. Things change if the PCPI dynamics calculation is weighted by the number of people within each state. The evolution of California’s PCPI will have a larger Long-Run Income Distribution Across States impact on the shape of the long-run distribution than Density Iowa’s PCPI dynamics because of California’s relatively 3.5 larger population. The population-weighted distribution Population-Weighted Unweighted can be interpreted as the long-run distribution across 3 people in the United States. The long-run distribution of income across people (the blue line in the chart) is 2.5 still twin-peaked, but the low-income peak is much less 2 pronounced. The population-weighted average PCPI is closer to the U.S. average and its standard deviation is 1.5 11 percent lower than that of the unweighted distribution. Convergence across people is driven by the fact 1 that states experiencing a decline in their relative income are also losing population share. For example, 0.5 Ohio in 1969 had the 15th highest income at 8 percent 0 above the national average. By 2005 Ohio lost ground: –60 –40 –20 0 20 40 60 It occupied the 30th place with a PCPI of 4.5 percent Percentage Difference from U.S. Average below the national average. At the same time, Ohio’s population declined from 5.35 percent of the total U.S Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System. research.stlouisfed.org Contents Page 3 4 7 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 27 Economy at a Glance Output and Growth Interest Rates Inflation and Prices Labor Markets Consumer Spending Investment Spending Government Revenues, Spending, and Debt International Trade Productivity and Profits Quick Reference Tables Notes and Sources Conventions used in this publication: 1. Shaded areas indicate recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. 2. Percent change refers to simple percent changes. Percent change from year ago refers to the percent change from the same month or quarter during the previous year. Compounded annual rate of change shows what the growth rate would be over an entire year if the same simple percent change continued for four quarters or twelve months. The compounded annual rate of change of x between the previous quarter t –1 and the current quarter t is: [(xt /x t – 1 )4 –1] × 100. For monthly data replace 4 with 12. 3. All data with significant seasonal patterns are adjusted accordingly, unless labeled NSA. We welcome your comments addressed to: Editor, National Economic Trends Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis P.O. Box 442 St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or to: stlsFRED@stls.frb.org National Economic Trends is published by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Visit the Research Division’s website at research.stlouisfed.org/publications/net to download the current version of this publication or register for e-mail notification updates. For more information on data in this publication, please visit research.stlouisfed.org/fred2 or call (314) 444-8573. updated through 01/07/08 National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth Consumer Price Index Compounded annual rates of change Percent change 1.6 8 1.2 6 0.8 4 0.4 2 0.0 0 -0.4 -0.8 -2 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 16071 2004 16437 Industrial Production Interest Rates Percent change Percent 1.5 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 6 1.0 5 10-Year Treasury 0.5 4 0.0 3 -0.5 2 3-Month Treasury -1.0 1 -1.5 -2.0 0 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 Unemployment Rate Thousands Percent of labor force 400 6.5 300 6.0 200 5.5 100 5.0 0 4.5 -100 4.0 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 3 updated through 01/04/08 National Economic Trends Real Gross Domestic Product Percent change from year ago 10 5 0 -5 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 Industrial Production and Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Indexes Percent change from year ago Index 18 74 Industrial Production (left scale) 12 66 6 58 0 50 ISM (right scale) -6 42 34 -12 -18 26 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Percent change from year ago 12 8 4 0 -4 -8 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 Real Change in Private Inventories Percent of GDP 2 1 0 -1 -2 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 Research Division 4 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 01/04/08 National Economic Trends Real Final Sales and GDP Real GDP Revisions Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 8 8 7 6 6 Final Sales 4 Advance Preliminary Final Annual Revision 5 4 2 3 2 0 1 GDP (bar) 0 -2 16437 2005 16802 2006 2007 17167 Industrial Production and ISM Index Percent change 2006:3 17532 12 62 10 0.6 56 8 0.0 50 6 44 4 38 2 32 0 ISM (right scale) Industrial Production (bar) (left scale) -1.2 -1.8 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 2007:2 2007:3 Compounded annual rates of change 68 -0.6 2007:1 Nominal Gross Domestic Product Index 1.8 1.2 2006:4 16437 17532 Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 Average Weekly Private Nonfarm Hours Percent change Hours 1.00 34.00 0.75 0.50 33.75 0.25 0 0.00 33.50 -0.25 -0.50 33.25 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 Real Change in Private Inventories 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 Inventory-Sales Ratio Billions of 2000 dollars Manufacturing and trade 75 1.34 60 1.32 45 1.30 30 1.28 15 1.26 0 1.24 -15 -30 1.22 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 5 updated through 12/20/07 National Economic Trends Contribution of Components to Real GDP Growth Percentage points at compounded annual rates 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 05Q4 06Q1 06Q2 06Q3 06Q4 07Q1 07Q2 Consumption Exports Government Imports Inventories Investment 07Q3 Contributions to Real GDP Growth Rate 2005 2006 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd -0.55 5.31 1.98 0.97 3.40 1.25 3.60 4.02 Consumption 0.84 3.00 1.63 1.88 2.68 2.56 1.00 2.01 Fixed Investment 0.38 1.27 -0.32 -0.80 -1.19 -0.70 0.49 -0.11 Final Sales Nonresidential Residential Government Federal State and Local 2007 0.35 1.31 0.44 0.53 -0.15 0.22 1.12 0.96 0.03 -0.05 -0.76 -1.33 -1.04 -0.93 -0.62 -1.08 -0.37 0.92 0.18 0.14 0.66 -0.09 0.79 0.74 -0.46 0.57 -0.11 0.06 0.50 -0.46 0.41 0.50 0.09 0.35 0.29 0.08 0.16 0.36 0.37 0.24 1.38 Net Exports -1.41 0.13 0.49 -0.25 1.25 -0.51 1.32 Exports Imports 1.07 1.19 0.61 0.62 1.51 0.13 0.85 2.10 -2.47 -1.07 -0.12 -0.88 -0.26 -0.63 0.47 -0.72 1.74 -0.49 0.46 0.10 -1.31 -0.65 0.22 0.89 -0.08 -0.11 -0.19 -0.26 -0.19 -0.22 -0.15 -0.25 1.19 4.82 2.44 1.07 2.09 0.60 3.82 4.91 Change in Inventory Residual Real GDP Growth Research Division 6 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 01/07/08 National Economic Trends Interest Rates Percent 18 15 12 9 10-Year Treasury 6 3-Month Treasury 3 0 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 Treasury Yield Curve Percent 5.25 5.00 4.75 4.50 Dec 2006 4.25 4.00 Dec 2007 3.75 3.50 3.25 Week Ending: 01/04/2008 3.00 2.75 3m 1y . 2y 5y 7y 10y Standard and Poor's 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends Percent change from year ago 75 50 25 0 -25 -50 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 7 updated through 12/20/07 National Economic Trends NIPA Chain Price Indexes Percent change from year ago 12 10 8 6 4 GDP 2 Gross Domestic Purchases 0 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 Consumer Price Index Percent change from year ago 15 12 9 6 Excl. Food and Energy 3 All Items 0 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 Producer Price Index, Finished Goods Percent change from year ago 20 15 10 Excl. Food and Energy 5 0 PPI -5 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 Employment Cost Index and Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago 15 12 9 Comp. per Hour 6 3 ECI 0 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 Research Division 8 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 01/07/08 National Economic Trends NIPA Chain Price Indexes Oil & Natural Gas Prices: Spot & Futures Compounded annual rates of change Dollars per barrel 5 4 Dollars per million btu 108 Gross Domestic Purchases 32 Spot Oil (left scale) 84 3 24 Oil Futures (left scale) 16 60 2 1 8 36 0 Spot Gas (right scale) GDP (bar) -1 Gas Futures (right scale) 0 12 2005 16437 2006 16802 2007 17167 17532 2004 2005 2006 2004 2005 2006 2007 Note: Futures prices as of 01/04/2008. 2007 2008 2008 Consumer Price Index Consumption Chain Price Index Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 20 16 15 2009 2009 2010 12 CPI (bar) 10 PCE (bar) 8 5 4 0 0 Excl. Food & Energy -5 Excl. Food & Energy -4 -10 -8 2005 16437 2006 16802 2007 17167 17532 16437 2005 16802 2006 Producer Price Index, Finished Goods Unit Labor Cost Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 50 15 40 17167 2007 17532 10 PPI (bar) 30 Nonfarm 5 20 0 10 -5 0 Manufacturing (bar) Excl. Food & Energy -10 -10 -20 -15 2005 16437 2006 16802 2007 17167 17532 16437 2005 16802 2006 Employment Cost Index Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago Compounded annual rates of change 17167 2007 17532 15 8 Benefits 12 6 9 Compensation 6 4 3 Wages and Salaries 2 0 0 -3 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 9 updated through 01/04/08 National Economic Trends Employment Percent change from year ago 8 6 4 Payroll Survey 2 Household Survey 0 -2 -4 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 Unemployment, Labor Force Participation, and Employment Rates Percent of labor force Percent of population 70 15 Labor Force/Population (right scale) 67 12 Employment/Population (right scale) 9 64 6 61 Unemployment Rate (left scale) 3 58 0 55 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 Duration of Unemployment Percent of labor force Weeks 4.50 16 3.75 14 3.00 12 Unemployed < 5 Weeks (left scale) 2.25 10 Unemployed > 15 Weeks (left scale) 1.50 8 Median (right scale) 0.75 6 0.00 4 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 Research Division 10 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 01/04/08 National Economic Trends Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Change in Manufacturing Payrolls Thousands Thousands 450 30 375 20 10 300 0 225 -10 150 -20 75 -30 0 -40 -75 -50 2005 16437 2006 16802 2007 17167 17532 Change in Household Employment 2005 16437 2006 16802 2007 17167 17532 Labor Force and Population Thousands Percent change from year ago 2.0 1200 1000 1.5 800 600 Pop. 1.0 400 200 90% Confidence 0.5 0 -200 -400 -600 Labor Force 0.0 -0.5 2005 16437 2006 16802 2007 17167 17532 Available Labor Supply and Components 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 Unemployment Rate & Job Openings Rate Percent of labor force Percent 10 6.5 Percent 4.5 6.0 4.0 5.5 3.5 9 8 90% Confidence Available Labor Supply 7 Unemployment Rate (left scale) 5.0 6 Unemployed 5 4.5 3.0 2.5 4 4.0 2.0 Job Openings Rate (right scale) 3 Want to Work 3.5 2 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 1.5 2002 15341 2003 15706 2004 16071 2005 16437 2006 16802 2007 17167 2008 17532 17898 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 11 updated through 12/20/07 National Economic Trends Real Disposable Personal Income Percent change from year ago, quarterly data 12 8 4 0 -4 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 Real Consumption Percent change from year ago, quarterly data Percent change from year ago, quarterly data 24 12 Durables (left scale) 16 8 8 4 Total (right scale) 0 0 -8 -4 -16 -8 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 Retail and Food Services Sales Percent change from year ago, quarterly average 16 12 8 4 0 -4 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 *Data from Jan. 1992 to the present are on a NAICS basis; data prior to Jan. 1992 are on an SIC basis and are not strictly comparable (see End Note). Debt Service Payments and Household Debt Outstanding Percent change from year ago, quarterly data Percent of disposable personal income 18 15 15 14 Debt Service Payments (right scale) 12 13 9 12 6 11 Household Debt Outstanding (left scale) 3 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 10 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 Research Division 12 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 01/07/08 National Economic Trends Real Disposable Personal Income Personal Saving Rate Percent change Percent 6 3 2 4 1 0 2 -1 0 -2 -2 -3 -4 -4 2005 16437 2006 16802 2007 17167 17532 Real Consumption 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 Real Consumption Compounded annual rates of change Percent change 8 1.6 6 0.8 4 0.0 2 -0.8 0 -1.6 2005 16437 2006 16802 2007 17167 17532 16437 2005 2006 16802 17167 2007 17532 Retail & Food Services Real Durables Consumption & Vehicle Sales Percent change Percent change Millions of vehicles, annual rate 15 4 3 22 Autos and Light Trucks (right scale) 10 Ex. Autos 2 20 5 18 0 16 1 0 -5 -1 14 Durables (bar) (left scale) Total (bar) -10 -2 2005 16437 2006 16802 2007 17167 17532 12 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 Consumer Sentiment (U. of Michigan) Real Durables Consumption Index Compounded annual rates of change 110 30 100 15 90 0 80 -15 70 2007 17532 -30 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 13 updated through 12/20/07 National Economic Trends Investment Percent of nominal GDP 24 22 Total 20 18 16 Private 14 12 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 Private Fixed Investment Percent change from year ago 30 24 18 Nominal 12 6 Real 0 -6 -12 -18 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 Real Nonresidential Fixed and Equipment & Software Investment Percent change from year ago 25 20 Equipment & Software 15 10 Nonresidential 5 0 -5 -10 -15 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 Real Residential Fixed Investment Percent change from year ago 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 Research Division 14 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 01/07/08 National Economic Trends Gross Saving Rates and Balance on Current Account (NIPA) Percent of GDP 25 20 Gross Private Saving 15 10 Gross Govt. Saving 5 0 BOCA -5 -10 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 Real Private Fixed Investment Nondefense Capital Goods Orders Compounded annual rates of change Percent change from year ago, excluding aircraft 15 30 06 06 07 07 08 20 10 Orders 10 5 0 Equipment & Software Investment 0 -10 -5 -20 -10 -30 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 Real Equipment & Software Investment Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 20 20 15 2007 17532 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -10 -5 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 Real Residential Fixed Investment 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 Housing Starts and New Home Sales Compounded annual rates of change Millions, annual rate 30 3.0 Millions, annual rate 1.48 New Home Sales (right scale) 20 2.6 10 2.2 1.16 0 1.8 1.00 -10 1.4 -20 1.0 -30 1.32 Housing Starts (left scale) 0.84 0.68 0.6 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 16437 0.52 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 15 updated through 12/20/07 National Economic Trends Govt. Consumption and Investment Govt. Current Receipts and Expenditures Billions of 2000 dollars Percent of GDP 2100 35 Total Expenditures 1800 Total 30 1500 Total Receipts 1200 25 State & Local Fed. Expenditures 900 20 600 Federal Fed. Receipts 300 15 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 Government Budgets Billions of dollars National Income Accounts Unified Budget Calendar Years Fiscal Years State and Local 1991 Federal Federal Receipts Expenditures Surplus or Deficit (-) 789.2 793.3 -4.1 1101.3 1315.0 -213.7 1055.1 1324.3 -269.2 -290.3 Receipts Expenditures Surplus or Deficit (-) Receipts Outlays Surplus or Deficit (-) 1992 845.7 845.0 0.7 1147.2 1444.6 -297.4 1091.3 1381.6 1993 886.9 886.0 0.9 1222.5 1496.0 -273.5 1154.5 1409.5 -255.1 1994 942.9 932.4 10.5 1320.8 1533.1 -212.3 1258.7 1461.9 -203.2 1995 990.2 978.2 12.0 1406.5 1603.5 -197.0 1351.9 1515.9 -164.0 1996 1043.3 1017.5 25.8 1524.0 1665.8 -141.8 1453.2 1560.6 -107.4 1997 1097.4 1058.3 39.1 1653.1 1708.9 -55.8 1579.4 1601.3 -21.9 1998 1163.2 1111.2 52.0 1773.8 1734.9 38.9 1722.0 1652.7 69.3 1999 1236.7 1186.3 50.4 1891.2 1787.6 103.6 1827.6 1702.0 125.6 2000 1319.5 1269.5 50.0 2053.8 1864.4 189.4 2025.5 1789.2 236.2 2001 1373.0 1368.2 4.8 2016.2 1969.5 46.7 1991.4 1863.2 128.2 2002 1410.1 1444.3 -34.2 1853.2 2101.1 -247.9 1853.4 2011.2 -157.8 -377.6 2003 1494.2 1514.5 -20.3 1879.9 2252.1 -372.2 1782.5 2160.1 2004 1594.3 1592.8 1.5 2008.9 2379.5 -370.6 1880.3 2293.0 -412.7 2005 1706.9 1691.7 15.2 2243.4 2561.6 -318.2 2153.9 2472.2 -318.3 2006 1797.7 1773.0 24.7 2495.8 2715.8 -220.0 2407.3 2655.0 -247.7 2005Q4 1731.8 1734.3 -2.5 2328.3 2621.4 -293.1 530.2 649.6 -119.4 2006Q1 1767.8 1732.1 35.7 2436.5 2656.2 -219.7 507.4 691.0 -183.6 2006Q2 1803.7 1760.9 42.8 2471.5 2711.4 -239.9 772.1 675.7 96.5 2006Q3 1806.7 1794.4 12.3 2513.1 2752.3 -239.2 596.9 638.7 -41.7 2006Q4 1812.4 1804.8 7.6 2561.9 2743.4 -181.5 573.5 653.9 -80.4 2007Q1 1856.6 1862.4 -5.8 2619.7 2838.2 -218.5 547.4 725.4 -178.0 2007Q2 1889.9 1876.5 13.4 2670.1 2876.9 -206.8 824.4 686.9 137.5 2007Q3 1892.8 1905.8 -13.0 2687.0 2919.7 -232.7 622.3 664.2 -41.8 Research Division 16 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 12/20/07 National Economic Trends Federal Debt Federal Surplus (+) / Deficit (-) Percent of GDP Percent of GDP 70 4 Total 60 2 0 50 NIPA -2 40 Held by Public -4 30 Unified Budget -6 20 -8 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 NIPA: Net government saving. Change in Federal Debt Federal Surplus (+) / Deficit (-), Unified Basis Percent of GDP Billions of dollars, fiscal years 8 750 6 500 4 250 Total 2 0 0 -250 Excl. interest payments Total Held by Public -500 -2 -750 -4 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 Federal Government Debt Billions of dollars, end of month or fiscal year Excludes Agency-issued debt Held by Public Federal Total Reserve Banks Held by Private Investors Foreign and Total International Total Public Debt Held by Agencies and Trusts 2005 7932.7 3331.1 4601.6 736.4 3864.9 1930.6 2006 8507.0 3663.8 4843.2 768.9 4074.2 2027.3 2007 9007.7 3958.4 5049.2 779.6 4269.7 2248.9 March 7131.1 2954.4 4176.7 674.1 3502.8 1677.1 June 7274.3 3055.6 4218.7 687.4 3531.5 1739.6 September 7379.1 3075.7 4303.4 700.3 3607.0 1798.7 December 7596.1 3189.8 4406.4 717.8 3690.6 1853.4 March 7776.9 3204.5 4572.4 717.3 3855.4 1956.3 June 7836.5 3308.9 4527.6 724.7 3803.0 1879.6 September 7932.7 3331.1 4601.6 736.4 3864.9 1930.6 December 8170.4 3455.8 4714.6 744.2 3970.6 2036.0 March 8371.2 3498.4 4872.8 758.5 4114.0 2084.5 June 8420.0 3622.6 4797.5 766.4 4030.8 1979.8 September 8507.0 3663.8 4843.2 768.9 4074.2 2027.3 December 8680.2 3779.0 4901.2 778.9 4122.1 2116.7 March 8849.7 3795.4 5054.3 780.9 4273.1 2208.4 June 8867.7 3924.6 4943.0 790.5 4152.6 2205.4 September 9007.7 3958.4 5049.2 779.6 4269.7 2248.9 2004 2005 2006 2007 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 17 updated through 01/02/08 National Economic Trends Current Account, Trade and Investment Income Balances Billions of dollars, quarterly rate Percent of GDP 20 4 Investment Income (left scale) 0 2 -20 0 -40 -2 Current Account (right scale) -60 -4 -80 -6 Goods and Services (left scale) -100 -8 -120 -10 -140 -12 -160 -14 -180 -16 -200 -18 -220 -20 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 Exchange Rates 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 Yen/US$ 100 x (Ecu or Euro/US$) Index, March 1973 = 100 160 375 140 300 120 225 Major Currency Index (left scale) Yen (right scale) 100 150 Euro Ecu (right scale) (right scale) 80 75 60 0 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 Goods Export Shares, 2006 UK 4.44% 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 Goods Import Shares, 2006 Mexico 10.65% Mexico 13.11% All Other 24.96% 97 97 China 15.47% UK 2.87% China 5.40% Japan 7.96% Japan 5.83% Germany 4.04% All Other 27.47% Germany 4.78% France 2.37% Other OECD 17.34% Canada 22.52% Canada 16.30% France 1.99% Other OECD 12.50% Research Division 18 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 12/17/07 National Economic Trends Trade Balance Goods Trade Billions of dollars Percent change from year ago 0 25 -12 20 Exports -24 15 Goods and Services -36 10 -48 5 -60 Imports 0 -72 Goods -84 -5 16437 2005 2006 16802 17167 2007 17532 16437 2005 16802 Current Account Balance Services Trade Billions of dollars Percent change from year ago 0 15 -40 12 -80 9 -120 6 -160 3 -200 0 -240 2006 17167 2007 17532 Exports Imports -3 16437 2005 2006 16802 17167 2007 17532 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 Real GDP Growth of Major Trading Partners Compounded annual rates of change United Kingdom Germany 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 04 2004 05 2005 06 2006 07 04 2004 05 Canada 2005 06 2006 07 06 2006 07 06 2006 07 France 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 04 2004 05 2005 06 2006 07 04 2004 05 Japan 2005 Mexico 12 12 8 8 4 4 0 0 -4 -4 04 2004 05 2005 06 2006 07 04 2004 05 2005 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 19 updated through 12/14/07 National Economic Trends Output per Hour and Capacity Utilization, Manufacturing Percent change from year ago Percent 15 90 Utilization Rate (level) (right scale) 10 80 5 70 Output/Hour (left scale) 0 60 -5 50 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 *Data from 1987 to the present are on a NAICS basis; data prior to 1987 are on an SIC basis and are not strictly comparable (see End Note). 06 07 07 08 Nonfarm Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago 15 10 Nominal 5 Real 0 -5 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 Output per Hour, Nonfarm Business and Nonfinancial Corporations Percent change from year ago 9 6 Nonfinancial Corporations 3 Nonfarm Business Sector 0 -3 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 Research Division 20 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 12/20/07 National Economic Trends Nonfarm Output per Hour Manufacturing Output per Hour Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 2005 16437 2006 16802 2007 17167 17532 2005 16437 2006 16802 2007 17167 17532 Selected Component Shares of National Income Percent Percent 75 15 13 73 Corporate Profits (left scale) 71 11 Proprietors' Income (left scale) 9 69 67 7 65 5 Compensation (right scale) 3 63 61 1 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 Corporate Profits Percent of GDP 14 12 Profits (Before Tax) 10 8 6 Profits (After Tax) 4 2 0 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 21 updated through 12/20/07 National Economic Trends Nominal GDP Billions of $ 2003. 2004. 10960.8 2005. 2006. 12433.9 2004 1 Real GDP Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2000 $ . 4.7 10301.044 . 6.6 10675.757 . 6.4 11003.448 13194.7 . 6.1 11405.5 6.8 6.5 11685.9 Final Sales Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2000 $ . 2.5 10285.104 . 3.6 10619.790 . 3.1 10966.873 11319.358 . 2.9 10543.621 3.0 4.1 Percent change Annual Year rate ago Change in Private Inventories Billions of 2000 $ Last qtr Year/Year ago . 2.5 . 14.282 . 3.3 . 54.268 . 3.3 . 33.237 11275.890 . 2.8 . 40.289 10507.057 2.6 4.0 34.953 16.950 33.834 . 2 11610.3 7.4 7.2 10634.232 3.5 4.1 10568.450 2.4 3.5 64.882 . 3 11779.4 6.0 6.3 10728.671 3.6 3.2 10666.641 3.8 2.7 60.057 46.215 . 4 11948.5 5.9 6.5 10796.408 2.5 3.1 10737.014 2.7 2.8 57.180 54.268 2005 1 12154.0 7.1 6.6 10878.380 3.1 3.2 10812.950 2.9 2.9 63.393 61.378 . 2 12317.4 5.5 6.1 10954.069 2.8 3.0 10940.422 4.8 3.5 10.070 47.675 . 3 12558.8 8.1 6.6 11074.326 4.5 3.2 11064.771 4.6 3.7 5.906 34.137 . 4 12705.5 4.8 6.3 11107.213 1.2 2.9 11049.544 -0.5 2.9 53.580 33.237 2006 1 12964.6 8.4 6.7 11238.662 4.8 3.3 11196.147 5.4 3.5 38.422 26.995 37.325 . 2 13155.0 6.0 6.8 11306.694 2.4 3.2 11252.074 2.0 2.8 51.390 . 3 13266.9 3.4 5.6 11336.734 1.1 2.4 11279.696 1.0 1.9 53.944 49.334 . 4 13392.3 3.8 5.4 11395.538 2.1 2.6 11375.837 3.5 3.0 17.401 40.289 2007 1 13551.9 4.9 4.5 11412.619 0.6 1.5 11411.560 1.3 1.9 0.097 30.708 . 2 13768.8 6.6 4.7 11520.115 3.8 1.9 11512.777 3.6 2.3 5.762 19.301 . 3 13970.5 6.0 5.3 11658.927 4.9 2.8 11626.389 4.0 3.1 30.638 13.475 Consumption Billions of 2000 $ Durables Consumption Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2000 $ Private Fixed Investment Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2000 $ Nonresidential Fixed Investment Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2000 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago 2003. 2004. 7295.309 . 2.8 1020.572 . 5.8 1596.874 . 3.4 1081.810 . 1.0 7561.380 . 3.6 1084.786 . 6.3 1712.757 . 7.3 1144.264 . 5.8 2005. 2006. 7803.593 . 3.2 1137.415 . 4.9 1831.427 . 6.9 1225.790 . 7.1 8044.054 . 3.1 1180.469 . 3.8 1874.694 . 2.4 1306.762 . 6.6 2004 1 7475.116 4.4 4.0 1066.225 5.8 9.8 1647.881 -0.2 7.3 1099.133 -2.6 4.9 . 2 7520.472 2.4 3.7 1071.336 1.9 6.1 1698.704 12.9 7.8 1127.496 10.7 4.9 . 3 7585.507 3.5 3.2 1091.520 7.8 4.0 1736.716 9.3 6.8 1160.749 12.3 5.6 . 4 7664.290 4.2 3.7 1110.065 7.0 5.6 1767.743 7.3 7.2 1189.666 10.3 7.5 2005 1 7709.377 2.4 3.1 1116.030 2.2 4.7 1785.306 4.0 8.3 1199.486 3.3 9.1 . 2 7775.220 3.5 3.4 1146.298 11.3 7.0 1819.775 7.9 7.1 1214.147 5.0 7.7 . 3 7852.791 4.1 3.5 1163.548 6.2 6.6 1854.949 8.0 6.8 1239.503 8.6 6.8 . 4 7876.850 1.2 2.8 1123.791 -13.0 1.2 1865.645 2.3 5.5 1250.025 3.4 5.1 2006 1 7961.901 4.4 3.3 1167.761 16.6 4.6 1901.356 7.9 6.5 1289.723 13.3 7.5 . 2 8009.279 2.4 3.0 1170.169 0.8 2.1 1892.290 -1.9 4.0 1303.165 4.2 7.3 . 3 8063.801 2.8 2.7 1186.322 5.6 2.0 1869.607 -4.7 0.8 1319.428 5.1 6.4 . 4 8141.236 3.9 3.4 1197.606 3.9 6.6 1835.541 -7.1 -1.6 1314.758 -1.4 5.2 2007 1 8215.706 3.7 3.2 1223.160 8.8 4.7 1815.191 -4.4 -4.5 1321.732 2.1 2.5 . 2 8244.349 1.4 2.9 1228.366 1.7 5.0 1829.345 3.2 -3.3 1356.624 11.0 4.1 . 3 8302.240 2.8 3.0 1241.912 4.5 4.7 1825.987 -0.7 -2.3 1387.278 9.3 5.1 Research Division 22 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 12/20/07 National Economic Trends GDP Chain Price Index Index 2003. 2004. 106.409 2005. 2006. 113.005 Percent change Annual Year rate ago Employment Cost Index Index ECI: Wages Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index . 3.8 94.2 96.7 . 2.1 92.7 . 2.9 96.2 . 3.8 . 3.2 99.2 . 3.1 99.2 116.568 . 3.2 102.1 . 2.9 2004 1 108.180 3.7 2.3 94.9 4.8 . 2 109.185 3.8 2.9 95.8 . 3 109.807 2.3 3.0 96.7 . 4 110.677 3.2 3.2 2005 1 111.745 3.9 . 2 112.455 2.6 . 3 113.422 . 4 ECI: Benefits Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago . 2.8 88.8 . 6.1 . 2.7 94.8 . 6.8 . 2.5 99.2 . 4.6 102.0 . 2.9 102.1 . 2.9 3.8 95.7 2.5 2.7 92.9 11.0 6.8 3.8 3.9 96.4 3.0 2.7 94.4 6.6 7.2 3.8 3.8 97.2 3.4 2.6 95.4 4.3 6.7 97.3 2.5 3.7 97.6 1.7 2.6 96.5 4.7 6.6 3.3 98.2 3.8 3.5 98.3 2.9 2.7 98.0 6.4 5.5 3.0 98.8 2.5 3.1 98.8 2.1 2.5 98.8 3.3 4.7 3.5 3.3 99.5 2.9 2.9 99.4 2.5 2.3 99.6 3.3 4.4 114.398 3.5 3.4 100.1 2.4 2.9 100.1 2.8 2.6 100.3 2.8 3.9 2006 1 115.363 3.4 3.2 100.8 2.8 2.6 100.8 2.8 2.5 100.8 2.0 2.9 . 2 116.350 3.5 3.5 101.6 3.2 2.8 101.6 3.2 2.8 101.5 2.8 2.7 . 3 117.030 2.4 3.2 102.5 3.6 3.0 102.4 3.2 3.0 102.5 4.0 2.9 . 4 117.527 1.7 2.7 103.3 3.2 3.2 103.2 3.2 3.1 103.4 3.6 3.1 2007 1 118.750 4.2 2.9 103.9 2.3 3.1 104.3 4.3 3.5 103.1 -1.2 2.3 . 2 119.527 2.6 2.7 104.8 3.5 3.1 105.1 3.1 3.4 104.2 4.3 2.7 . 3 119.837 1.0 2.4 105.6 3.1 3.0 105.9 3.1 3.4 105.0 3.1 2.4 109.462 Exports Billions of 2000 $ 2003. 1026.109 2004. 1126.134 Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2000 $ 1.3 1545.017 . Nonfarm Output per Hour Imports Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index Percent change Year Annual rate ago . 4.1 128.034 . . 11.3 131.542 . 134.097 3.7 Nonfarm Compensation per Hour Index Percent change Year Annual rate ago 150.423 . 4.0 2.7 155.869 . 3.6 162.149 . 9.7 1719.939 2005. 1203.444 2006. 1304.104 . 6.9 1821.457 . 5.9 . 1.9 . 4.0 . 8.4 1928.567 . 5.9 135.393 . 1.0 168.506 . 3.9 2004 1 1101.785 10.0 9.8 1650.888 12.3 9.3 130.220 0.9 4.0 152.871 -0.2 3.8 . 2 1119.392 6.5 12.0 1710.450 15.2 12.1 131.713 4.7 3.8 154.850 5.3 3.4 . 3 1128.041 3.1 9.9 1730.757 4.8 12.4 132.000 0.9 1.5 156.824 5.2 3.4 . 4 1155.317 10.0 7.4 1787.662 13.8 11.5 132.222 0.7 1.8 158.890 5.4 3.9 2005 1 1172.397 6.0 6.4 1796.826 2.1 8.8 133.417 3.7 2.5 160.300 3.6 4.9 . 2 1199.343 9.5 7.1 1800.339 0.8 5.3 133.515 0.3 1.4 160.889 1.5 3.9 . 3 1205.647 2.1 6.9 1809.724 2.1 4.6 134.964 4.4 2.2 163.153 5.7 4.0 . 4 1236.387 10.6 7.0 1878.952 16.2 5.1 134.485 -1.4 1.7 164.210 2.6 3.3 2006 1 1270.569 11.5 8.4 1910.696 6.9 6.3 135.311 2.5 1.4 167.079 7.2 4.2 . 2 1288.438 5.7 7.4 1915.005 0.9 6.4 135.583 0.8 1.5 166.978 -0.2 3.8 . 3 1306.571 5.7 8.4 1940.374 5.4 7.2 135.041 -1.6 0.1 167.517 1.3 2.7 . 4 1350.861 14.3 9.3 1948.210 1.6 3.7 135.638 1.8 0.9 172.417 12.2 5.0 2007 1 1354.654 1.1 6.6 1966.775 3.9 2.9 135.858 0.7 0.4 174.906 5.9 4.7 . 2 1379.485 7.5 7.1 1953.360 -2.7 2.0 136.584 2.2 0.7 175.353 1.0 5.0 . 3 1441.150 19.1 10.3 1974.272 4.4 1.7 138.693 6.3 2.7 177.179 4.2 5.8 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 23 updated through 01/04/08 National Economic Trends Household Survey Employment Thousands Change 2003 . 2004 . 137729 1248 139242 1512 2005 . 2006 . 141716 2474 144421 2706 2007 . 146049 1628 2005 Percent change Annual Year rate ago Nonfarm Payroll Employment Nonfarm Aggregate Hours Percent change Annual Year rate ago Percent change Monthly Annual Year rate rate ago Thousands Change . 0.9 129990 -357 . 1.1 131423 1433 . 1.8 133696 2273 . 1.9 136175 2478 1.1 137975 . Index . -0.3 98.6 . . . 1.1 100.2 . . 1.6 . 1.7 102.7 . . 2.5 . 1.9 105.7 . . 2.9 1800 . 1.3 107.5 . 1.6 . -1.4 1 140380 334 1.0 1.4 132656 427 1.3 1.6 101.5 0.3 1.2 2.2 1136 3.3 1.9 133371 715 2.2 1.6 102.4 0.9 3.5 2.5 . 2 141516 . 3 142314 797 2.3 2.0 134107 736 2.2 1.9 103.1 0.7 2.8 2.6 . 4 142652 338 1.0 1.9 134652 546 1.6 1.8 103.9 0.8 3.3 2.7 2006 1 143356 704 2.0 2.1 135393 741 2.2 2.1 104.8 0.8 3.4 3.2 . 2 144083 727 2.0 1.8 135913 520 1.5 1.9 105.6 0.8 3.1 3.1 . 3 144604 521 1.5 1.6 136442 529 1.6 1.7 106.0 0.3 1.4 2.8 . 4 145642 1038 2.9 2.1 136951 509 1.5 1.7 106.5 0.5 2.0 2.5 2007 1 145983 340 0.9 1.8 137447 496 1.5 1.5 106.8 0.3 1.1 1.9 . 2 145904 -78 -0.2 1.3 137864 417 1.2 1.4 107.4 0.5 2.1 1.7 . 3 146019 115 0.3 1.0 138143 278 0.8 1.2 107.7 0.3 1.2 1.6 . 4 146291 272 0.7 0.4 138445 302 0.9 1.1 108.0 0.2 1.0 1.4 Dec 142778 214 1.8 1.9 134904 202 1.8 1.9 104.2 0.2 2.3 2.7 2005 2006 Jan 143086 308 2.6 2.0 135110 206 1.8 2.0 104.5 0.3 3.5 3.2 . Feb 143362 276 2.3 2.1 135410 300 2.7 2.0 104.8 0.3 3.5 3.1 . Mar 143619 257 2.2 2.2 135659 249 2.2 2.1 105.1 0.3 3.5 3.3 . Apr 143791 172 1.4 1.8 135803 144 1.3 2.0 105.6 0.5 5.9 3.1 . May 144088 297 2.5 1.8 135906 103 0.9 1.9 105.4 -0.2 -2.2 3.1 . Jun 144369 281 2.4 1.9 136030 124 1.1 1.8 105.8 0.4 4.7 3.1 . 144295 -74 -0.6 1.6 136252 222 2.0 1.7 106.0 0.2 2.3 3.1 . Jul Aug 144671 376 3.2 1.6 136438 186 1.7 1.7 105.9 -0.1 -1.1 2.8 . Sep 144846 175 1.5 1.7 136636 198 1.8 1.8 106.0 0.1 1.1 2.4 . Oct 145395 549 4.6 2.0 136745 109 1.0 1.8 106.3 0.3 3.4 2.6 . Nov 145583 188 1.6 2.1 136941 196 1.7 1.7 106.3 0.0 0.0 2.2 . Dec 145949 366 3.1 2.2 137167 226 2.0 1.7 106.9 0.6 7.0 2.6 2007 Jan 145915 -34 -0.3 2.0 137329 162 1.4 1.6 106.7 -0.2 -2.2 2.1 . Feb 145888 -27 -0.2 1.8 137419 90 0.8 1.5 106.4 -0.3 -3.3 1.5 . Mar 146145 257 2.1 1.8 137594 175 1.5 1.4 107.3 0.8 10.6 2.1 . Apr 145713 -432 -3.5 1.3 137716 122 1.1 1.4 107.1 -0.2 -2.2 1.4 . May 145913 200 1.7 1.3 137904 188 1.7 1.5 107.3 0.2 2.3 1.8 . Jun 146087 137973 69 0.6 1.4 107.7 0.4 4.6 1.8 . . Jul Aug . Sep . 174 1.4 1.2 146045 -42 -0.3 1.2 138066 93 0.8 1.3 107.6 -0.1 -1.1 1.5 145753 -292 -2.4 0.7 138159 93 0.8 1.3 107.7 0.1 1.1 1.7 146260 507 4.3 1.0 138203 44 0.4 1.1 107.8 0.1 1.1 1.7 Oct 146016 -244 -2.0 0.4 138362 159 1.4 1.2 107.9 0.1 1.1 1.5 . Nov 146647 631 5.3 0.7 138477 115 1.0 1.1 108.0 0.1 1.1 1.6 . Dec 146211 -436 -3.5 0.2 138495 18 0.2 1.0 108.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 Research Division 24 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 01/07/08 National Economic Trends Retail and Food Services Sales Unempl. Rate Billions of dollars 2003 . 2004 . 6.0 3614.093 5.5 3833.271 2005 . 2006 . 5.1 4085.340 4.6 4337.378 2007 . 4.6 2005 Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago Industrial Production Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago Index . 4.2 101.0619 . 6.1 103.5734 . . 6.6 106.9340 . . 6.2 111.2407 . . . . . . . Treasury Yields (Percent) 3-mo 10-yr . 1.1 1.01 . 2.5 1.37 4.27 . . 3.2 3.15 4.29 . . 4.0 4.73 4.79 . 4.35 4.63 . . . . 4.02 1 5.3 994.839 1.0 4.1 6.0 105.9764 1.1 4.6 3.3 2.54 4.30 1015.843 7.2 106.6983 0.7 2.8 3.4 2.86 4.16 . 2 5.1 2.1 8.7 . 3 5.0 1034.026 1.8 7.4 7.4 106.9113 0.2 0.8 3.1 3.36 4.21 . 4 4.9 1040.632 0.6 2.6 5.7 108.1499 1.2 4.7 3.2 3.83 4.49 4.57 2006 1 4.7 1072.960 3.1 13.0 7.9 109.4847 1.2 5.0 3.3 4.39 . 2 4.7 1081.227 0.8 3.1 6.4 111.2261 1.6 6.5 4.2 4.70 5.07 . 3 4.6 1089.867 0.8 3.2 5.4 112.3327 1.0 4.0 5.1 4.91 4.90 . 4 4.4 1093.324 0.3 1.3 5.1 111.9193 -0.4 -1.5 3.5 4.90 4.63 2007 1 4.5 1109.368 1.5 6.0 3.4 112.2157 0.3 1.1 2.5 4.98 4.68 . 2 4.5 1124.080 1.3 5.4 4.0 113.1718 0.9 3.5 1.7 4.74 4.85 1134.310 0.9 3.7 4.1 114.2480 1.0 3.9 1.7 4.30 4.73 4.26 4.47 . 3 4.7 . 4 4.8 . . . . . . . . 3.39 Dec 4.8 347.730 0.0 0.2 5.1 109.1496 0.8 10.5 3.6 3.89 2006 Jan 4.7 359.254 3.3 47.9 9.0 109.1081 -0.0 -0.5 3.3 4.24 4.42 . Feb 4.7 356.451 -0.8 -9.0 7.2 109.3862 0.3 3.1 3.0 4.43 4.57 . Mar 4.7 357.255 0.2 2.7 7.4 109.9597 0.5 6.5 3.6 4.51 4.72 . Apr 4.7 361.376 1.2 14.8 7.1 110.9443 0.9 11.3 4.5 4.60 4.99 . May 4.7 359.363 -0.6 -6.5 6.9 110.8746 -0.1 -0.8 4.0 4.72 5.11 . Jun 4.6 360.488 0.3 3.8 5.4 111.8594 0.9 11.2 4.3 4.79 5.11 . 4.7 363.633 0.9 11.0 4.5 112.3067 0.4 4.9 4.7 4.95 5.09 . Jul Aug 4.7 364.172 0.1 1.8 6.3 112.5208 0.2 2.3 4.6 4.96 4.88 . Sep 4.5 362.062 -0.6 -6.7 5.4 112.1707 -0.3 -3.7 6.0 4.81 4.72 . Oct 4.4 363.019 0.3 3.2 5.2 111.9994 -0.2 -1.8 4.6 4.92 4.73 . Nov 4.5 362.964 -0.0 -0.2 4.4 111.5291 -0.4 -4.9 3.0 4.94 4.60 . Dec 4.4 367.341 1.2 15.5 5.6 112.2295 0.6 7.8 2.8 4.85 4.56 2005 2007 Jan 4.6 367.230 -0.0 -0.4 2.2 111.6827 -0.5 -5.7 2.4 4.98 4.76 . Feb 4.5 369.287 0.6 6.9 3.6 112.5319 0.8 9.5 2.9 5.03 4.72 . Mar 4.4 372.851 1.0 12.2 4.4 112.4324 -0.1 -1.1 2.2 4.94 4.56 . Apr 4.5 371.651 -0.3 -3.8 2.8 113.0619 0.6 6.9 1.9 4.87 4.69 . May 4.5 377.689 1.6 21.3 5.1 112.9510 -0.1 -1.2 1.9 4.73 4.75 . Jun 4.6 374.740 -0.8 -9.0 4.0 113.5026 0.5 6.0 1.5 4.61 5.10 . 4.7 376.906 0.6 7.2 3.7 114.2392 0.6 8.1 1.7 4.82 5.00 . Jul Aug 4.7 377.173 0.1 0.9 3.6 114.1040 -0.1 -1.4 1.4 4.20 4.67 . Sep 4.7 380.231 0.8 10.2 5.0 114.4008 0.3 3.2 2.0 3.89 4.52 . Oct 4.8 381.088 0.2 2.7 5.0 113.5893 -0.7 -8.2 1.4 3.90 4.53 385.753 1.2 15.7 6.3 113.9019 0.3 3.4 2.1 3.27 4.15 . 3.00 4.10 . Nov 4.7 . Dec 5.0 . . . . . . . Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 25 updated through 12/14/07 National Economic Trends Consumer Price Index less Food and Energy Consumer Price Index Index 2002 . 2003 . 2004 . 2005 . 2006 . 2005 179.867 183.967 Monthly/ quarterly . . Percent change Annual Year rate ago . 1.6 . 2.3 188.900 . . 2.7 195.258 . . 3.4 . 3.2 201.583 . Year to date Index . 190.442 . 193.225 . 196.625 . 200.892 . 205.925 Monthly/ quarterly Percent change Annual Year rate ago . 2.3 . 1.5 . . 1.8 . . 2.2 . . . Producer Price Index Finished Goods Year to date Index Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago . 138.9 . . . 143.3 . . 3.2 . 148.5 . . 3.6 . 155.7 . . 4.9 . 2.5 . 160.3 . . 2.9 2.3 2.6 152.7 0.8 3.2 4.7 0.9 3.5 4.1 1 192.133 0.5 2.1 3.0 2.1 199.500 0.6 2.6 1.0 3.9 2.9 3.0 200.433 0.5 1.9 -1.3 . 2 193.967 2.2 2.2 154.0 . 3 196.633 1.4 5.6 3.8 3.9 201.167 0.4 1.5 2.1 2.0 156.8 1.8 7.3 5.6 . 4 198.300 0.8 3.4 3.7 3.7 202.467 0.6 2.6 2.1 2.1 159.4 1.7 7.0 5.2 4.4 2006 1 199.233 0.5 1.9 3.7 1.9 203.667 0.6 2.4 2.1 2.4 159.4 -0.0 -0.1 . 2 201.700 1.2 5.0 4.0 3.5 205.333 0.8 3.3 2.4 2.9 160.9 0.9 3.7 4.4 . 3 203.233 0.8 3.1 3.4 3.3 206.867 0.7 3.0 2.8 2.9 161.1 0.2 0.7 2.8 . 4 202.167 -0.5 -2.1 1.9 1.9 207.833 0.5 1.9 2.7 2.7 159.9 -0.8 -3.1 0.3 2007 1 204.068 0.9 3.8 2.4 3.8 209.010 0.6 2.3 2.6 2.3 162.5 1.6 6.7 1.9 . 2 207.057 1.5 6.0 2.7 4.9 210.006 0.5 1.9 2.3 2.1 166.4 2.4 10.0 3.4 . 3 208.019 0.5 1.9 2.4 3.9 211.299 0.6 2.5 2.1 2.2 166.8 0.3 1.0 3.5 2005 Nov 197.900 -0.7 -7.6 3.5 3.8 202.500 0.2 3.0 2.1 2.2 158.7 -0.7 -8.0 4.3 . Dec 197.800 -0.1 -0.6 3.4 3.4 202.900 0.2 2.4 2.2 2.2 159.8 0.7 8.6 5.5 2006 Jan 199.000 0.6 7.5 4.0 7.5 203.200 0.1 1.8 2.1 1.8 160.3 0.3 3.8 5.6 . Feb 199.100 0.1 0.6 3.6 4.0 203.600 0.2 2.4 2.1 2.1 158.6 -1.1 -12.0 3.9 . Mar 199.600 0.3 3.1 3.4 3.7 204.200 0.3 3.6 2.1 2.6 159.3 0.4 5.4 3.6 . Apr 200.800 0.6 7.5 3.6 4.6 204.800 0.3 3.6 2.3 2.8 160.4 0.7 8.6 4.0 . May 201.900 0.5 6.8 4.1 5.0 205.300 0.2 3.0 2.4 2.9 160.7 0.2 2.3 4.4 . Jun 202.400 0.2 3.0 4.3 4.7 205.900 0.3 3.6 2.6 3.0 161.5 0.5 6.1 4.9 . 203.200 0.4 4.8 4.2 4.7 206.400 0.2 3.0 2.7 3.0 161.3 -0.1 -1.5 3.9 . Jul Aug 203.800 0.3 3.6 3.9 4.6 206.900 0.2 2.9 2.8 3.0 161.9 0.4 4.6 3.7 . Sep 202.700 -0.5 -6.3 2.1 3.3 207.300 0.2 2.3 2.9 2.9 160.2 -1.1 -11.9 0.8 . Oct 201.800 -0.4 -5.2 1.3 2.4 207.600 0.1 1.8 2.8 2.8 157.8 -1.5 -16.6 -1.3 . Nov 201.900 0.0 0.6 2.0 2.3 207.800 0.1 1.2 2.6 2.6 160.3 1.6 20.8 1.0 . Dec 202.800 0.4 5.5 2.5 2.5 208.100 0.1 1.7 2.6 2.6 161.5 0.7 9.4 1.1 2007 Jan 203.153 0.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 208.632 0.3 3.1 2.7 3.1 160.6 -0.6 -6.5 0.2 . Feb 203.906 0.4 4.5 2.4 3.3 209.135 0.2 2.9 2.7 3.0 162.6 1.2 16.0 2.5 . Mar 205.146 0.6 7.5 2.8 4.7 209.263 0.1 0.7 2.5 2.3 164.2 1.0 12.5 3.1 2.6 4.8 209.634 0.2 2.1 2.4 2.2 165.6 0.9 10.7 3.2 0.1 1.8 2.3 0.7 8.3 3.7 . Apr 205.999 0.4 5.1 . May 207.387 0.7 8.4 2.7 5.5 209.948 2.1 166.7 . Jun 207.784 0.2 2.3 2.7 5.0 210.436 0.2 2.8 2.2 2.3 166.8 0.1 0.7 3.3 . 208.028 0.1 1.4 2.4 4.5 210.933 0.2 2.9 2.2 2.3 167.9 0.7 8.2 4.1 . Jul Aug 207.738 -0.1 -1.7 1.9 3.7 211.250 0.2 1.8 2.1 2.3 165.3 -1.5 -17.1 2.1 . Sep 208.292 0.3 3.2 2.8 3.6 211.714 0.2 2.7 2.1 2.3 167.2 1.1 14.7 4.4 . Oct 208.903 0.3 3.6 3.5 3.6 212.050 0.2 1.9 2.1 2.3 167.3 0.1 0.7 6.0 . Nov 210.565 0.8 10.0 4.3 4.2 212.633 0.3 3.3 2.3 2.4 172.6 3.2 45.4 7.7 Research Division 26 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis National Economic Trends Notes Pages 4, 5: Final Sales is gross domestic product (GDP) minus change in private inventories. Advance, Preliminary, and Final GDP Growth Rates are released during the first, second, and third months of the following quarter. Changes result from incorporation of more complete information. Real GDP is measured in 2000 dollars. The ISM (formerly Purchasing Managers’) Index is a weighted average of diffusion indexes for new orders, production, supplier deliveries, inventories, and employment. Aggregate and Average Weekly Hours are paid hours of production and nonsupervisory employees. The Inventory-Sales Ratio uses nominal (current-dollar) inventory and sales data. Page 6: For information on how to calculate the Contribution of a component to the overall GDP growth rate, see the October 1999 issue of the Survey of Current Business, p. 16. The sign is changed for Imports. Page 7: Ten-year Treasury Yields are adjusted to constant maturity; threemonth yields are secondary market averages. All rates used in the yield curves are adjusted to constant maturity. The 30-year constant maturity series was discontinued by the Treasury Department as of Feb. 18, 2002. Standard and Poor’s 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends shows the total return: capital gains plus dividends. Pages 8, 9: Oil (West Texas intermediate) and Natural Gas (Henry Hub) spot and futures prices are listed in the Wall Street Journal. Spot prices are monthly averages of daily prices; futures prices are usually taken from the last trading day of the month. Consumer Price Index is for all urban consumers. The Consumption Chain Price Index is the index associated with the personal consumption expenditures component of GDP. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) covers private nonfarm employers. ECI Compensation refers to a fixed sample of jobs, while Compensation per Hour covers all workers in the nonfarm business sector in a given quarter. In both cases, compensation is wages and salaries plus benefits. Pages 10, 11: Effective with the May 2003 Employment Situation, the establishment survey data for employment, hours, and earnings have been converted from the 1987 SIC system to the 2002 NAICS system. For more information see http://www.bls.gov/ces/. Nonfarm Payroll Employment is counted in a survey of about 400,000 establishments (Current Employment Statistics). It excludes self-employed individuals and workers in private households, but double-counts individuals with more than one job. The Household Survey (Current Population Survey) of about 60,000 households provides estimates of civilian employment, unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and employment-population ratio. Population is civilian, noninstitutional, 16 years and over. The 90 percent confidence intervals for the unemployment rate (± 0.2 percentage points) and change in household survey employment (± 290,000) measure uncertainty due to sample size. Because the household survey was changed in January 1994, data prior to this date are not strictly comparable. The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced several revisions to the Household Survey on Feb. 7, 2003, with the release of the January 2003 data. For more information, see <www.bls.gov/cps/>. The Job Openings rate is the number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a percent of total employment plus job openings. Page 13: The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index shows changes in a summary measure of consumers’ answers to five questions about their current and expected financial situation, expectations about future economic conditions, and attitudes about making large purchases. The survey is based on a representative sample of U.S. households. Page 15: Gross Private Saving is the sum of personal saving, undistributed corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj (see notes for pp. 18-19), and private wage accruals less disbursements. Gross Government Saving is net government saving (surplus/deficit) plus consumption of fixed capital. Balance on Current Account (NIPA) is net capital transfer payments to the rest of the world plus net lending or net borrowing (international trade and income flows). Pages 16, 17: Government Consumption and Investment is current expenditures on goods and services, including capital consumption (depreciation) and gross investment, as reported in the NIPAs. The Unified Federal Budget Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Surplus/Deficit differs from NIPA Basis in four main ways: (1) NIPA excludes transactions involving existing assets; (2) NIPA outlays exclude government investment and include consumption of government capital, while unified budget outlays do the reverse; (3) NIPA accounts exclude Puerto Rico and U.S. territories; and (4) various timing issues are handled differently. Outlays and Receipts are from the NIPAs, except as noted. Since 1977, the federal Fiscal Year starts on October 1. Excluded agency debt was 0.6 percent of federal debt at the end of fiscal 1997. Federal Debt Held by the Public includes holdings of the Federal Reserve System and excludes holdings of the social security and other federal trust funds. Federal grants in aid to state and local governments appear in both state and local receipts and federal outlays. Pages 18, 19: The Trade Balance (shown on a balance of payments basis) is the difference between exports and imports of goods (merchandise) and services. It is nearly identical in concept to the Net Exports component of GDP, but differs slightly in accounting details. The Investment Income Balance equals income received from U.S.-owned assets in other countries minus income paid on foreign-owned assets in the U.S. The investment income balance is nearly identical in concept to the difference between gross national product and gross domestic product, but differs in accounting details. The Current Account Balance is the trade balance plus the balance on investment income plus net unilateral transfers to the U.S. from other countries. Pages 20, 21: Output per Hour (Y/H), Unit Labor Cost (C/Y), and Compensation per Hour (C/H) are indexes which approximately obey the following relationship: %(Y/H) + %(C/Y) = %(C/H) with %() meaning percent changes. Unit labor cost is shown on page 9. Real Compensation per Hour uses the CPI to adjust for the effects of inflation. Nonfarm business accounted for about 76 percent of the value of GDP in 1996, while nonfinancial corporations accounted for about 54 percent. Inventory Valuation Adjustments (IVA) remove the effect of changes in the value of existing inventories from corporate profits and proprietors’ income. (This change in value does not correspond to current production and therefore is not part of GDP). Capital Consumption Adjustments (CCAdj) increase profits and proprietors’ income by the difference between estimates of economic depreciation and depreciation allowed by the tax code. Components of national income not shown are rental income of persons and net interest. NOTE: Most measures of economic activity are now based on the 2002 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), which replaces the 1987 Standard Industry Classification (SIC) system. Sources Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Dept. of Commerce National income and product accounts, international trade and investment data (except by country), auto and light truck sales. Census Bureau, U.S. Dept. of Commerce Inventory-sales ratios, retail sales, capital goods orders, housing starts, exports and imports by country. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Dept. of Labor All employment-related data, employment cost index, consumer and producer price indexes, unit labor cost, output per hour, compensation per hour, multifactor productivity. United States Department of Treasury Unified budget receipts, outlays, deficit, debt. Federal Reserve Board Index of industrial production, treasury yields, exchange rates, capacity utilization, household debt. The Survey Research Center, The University of Michigan Consumer sentiment index. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) GDP for major trading partners (not available on FRED). 27
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