Full text of National Economic Trends : January 1996
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JANUARY 1996
National
Economic
Trends
The Devil is in the
Budget Details
cause a revenue shortfall of about $26 billion.
In addition, lower growth would also decrease rev
enues in each of the years 1996 to 2001, leaving the
existing federal debt at the end of 2001 about $75 billion
higher than it would have been otherwise. Interest
costs on this additional debt would raise the deficit
another $2.9 billion for a total increase in the projected
2002 deficit of $29 billion, all from lower growth of
just 0.2 percentage points!
Further, these calculations probably understate the
true increase in the deficit projections, as we completely
ignore the increased expenditures that may result from
lower growth.
These simple calculations illustrate the sensitivity
of deficit projections to very small changes in eco
nomic assumptions. Given the enormous uncertainty
associated with most economic forecasts — and the
sensitivity of long-term deficit projections to small
changes in variables like output and interest rates —
deficit projections must be taken with a grain of salt.
In budget calculations, the devil is in the details.
— Christopher J. Neely
Much of the recent debate on the attempt to balance
the federal budget by 2002 has focused on whether to
use the economic and budget projections o f the Office
of Management and Budget (OMB) or to use those of
the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). The OMB
works for the president while the CBO is a creature of
Congress. Several apparently inconsequential discrep
ancies exist in the economic projections used by the
CBO and OMB to predict future deficits: small differ
ences in the average growth rate of the economy, the
components of national income (for example, the share
of corporate profits vs. wages) and the path of interest
rates. These seemingly innocuous differences in assump
tions about the performance of the economy are criti
cal, however, and can create substantial discrepancies
in projections of future revenues and expenditures.
To illustrate this point, let’s consider one simple
“back of the envelope” calculation: the CBO
estimate of average real growth over the next
MAKING MOUNTAINS OUT OF MOLEHILLS: AN ILLUSTRATION
seven years is 2.3 percent, while that of the
(billions of current dollars)
OMB is 2.5 percent. How will this small
Fiscal
GDP
Revenue
difference affect the deficit in 2002?
Additional
Additional
Year
Shortfall
Shortfall
Debt1
Interest Costs2
First, slower growth will affect the
deficit by directly lowering GDP and
1996
15.4
2.8
2.8
0.0
hence, federal revenues in 2002. Suppose
1997
6.0
32.3
9.0
0.1
that the increase in the GDP deflator will
9.4
1998
50.8
0.4
18.8
average 2.4 percent each year (in the ball
13.1
1999
71.1
32.7
0.8
park of CBO estimates) and federal rev
17.2
2000
93.1
51.1
1.3
2001
21.6
117.2
74.7
2.0
enues are a constant 18.45 percent of nom
26.4
2002
104.1
143.3
2.9
inal GDP (the average for 1990-1994).
Then, GDP in 2002 would be $143 billion
1 A dditional debt is calculated as o f end o f year.
lower with 2.3 percent real growth than it
2 Additional interest costs are based on previous year’ s debt and C B O projections o f three-month
would be with 2.5 real percent growth (see
T - B ill rates.
table). The growing GDP shortfall would
Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions o f the Federal Reserve System
National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research Division o f the Federal Reserve Bank o f St. Louis. For more information on data, please
call (314) 444-8573. Single-copy subscriptions are available free o f charge by writing Public Affairs Office, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office
Box 442, St. Louis, M O 63166-0442 or by calling (314) 444-8808 or (314) 444-8809. Information in this publication is also included in the Federal Reserve
DigitizedEconomic
for FRASER
Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board at (314) 621-1824 or internet World Wide Web server at http://www.stls.frb.org/fred.
Table of Contents
Page
3-4
5-6
7-8
9 ,
10
11
12-13
14
15
16-17
18-21
22
23
24
25-27
Nominal and Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Price Deflators
Consumer and Producer Prices
Employment Costs
Productivity and Unit Labor Cost
Industrial Production
Employment and Unemployment
Real Personal Income
Retail Sales
Inventories and Final Sales
Components of Real GDP
U.S. International Transactions
Gross Saving and Investment
Corporate Profits and Cash Flow
Government Budget Data
-•
N O TE
Due to the upcoming benchmark revisions, the
Bureau o f Economic Analysis has not updated the
national income and product accounts since the last
issue o f N ational Econom ic Trends. Many charts
and tables are therefore unchanged since our
December issue.
2
Gross Domestic Product
Seasonally Adjusted
Trillions of Dollars
Trillions of Dollars
Real GDP is measured using 1987 prices.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Gross Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
1-91 2-91
3-91 4-91
Annual Rates
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
1-95 2-95
2.8
3.9
3.9
3.5
4.2
4.4
4.5
5.0
4.9
4.8
4.7
5.0
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.3
5.2
5.2
4-90
5.0
4.4
3.8
4.6
4.7
4.8
5.3
5.2
5.1
4.9
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.3
5.3
3.8
3.2
4.5
4.7
4.7
5.3
5.2
5.1
4.9
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.6
5.5
5.4
5.3
2.6
4.8
4.9
4.9
5.6
5.4
5.3
5.1
5.4
5.4
5.6
5.8
5.7
5.6
5.5
5.4
7.1
6.1
5.7
6.4
6.0
5.7
5.4
5.7
5.8
5.9
5.9
6.0
5.9
5.7
5.6
1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
5.2
5.0
6.2
5.8
5.4
5.2
5.5
5.6
5.8
5.8
5.9
5.8
5.6
5.5
4.9
6.7
6.0
5.5
5.2
5.6
5.7
5.8
5.9
5.9
5.8
5.6
5.5
8.6
6.5
5.7
5.2
5.7
5.8
6.0
6.0
6.0
5.9
5.7
5.6
4.4
4.3
4.1
5.0
5.2
5.5
5.6
5.7
5.6
5.4
5.3
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92
4.2
4.0
5.2
5.4
5.8
5.9
5.9
5.8
5.5
5.4
3.8
5.7
5.9
6.2
6.2
6.2
6.0
5.6
5.5
6.8
6.7
6.4
5.9
5.8
6.1
6.6
6.5
6.5
7.2
6.7
6.1
6.6
6.1
5.6
5.5
5.5
5.4
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93
Third quarter data are advance estimates.
7.7
6.9
7.0
6.2
6.3
5.8
5.1
5.0
6.4
5.5
4.7
4.7
4.7
3.9
4.2
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
3.0
3.9
4.8
5,636.8
5,705.9
5,759.9
5,796.6
5,896.8
5,971.3
6,043.6
6,169.3
6,235.9
6,299.9
6,359.2
6,478.1
6,574.7
6,689.9
6,791.7
6,897.2
6,977.4
7,030.0
7,113.2
1-95 2-95
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
January 2,1996
3
Real Gross Domestic Product
Percent
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent
5.0
2.5
0.0
-2.5
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
“ ’7 “ “ Trend is ten-year moving average of fixed—weight (1987 dollar) growth rate. The chain—weight trend (not shown)
differs only slightly.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Real Gross Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 2-95
4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
-2.1
2.2
0.0
0.3
1.6
10
0.3
1.1
0.5
0.1
0.8
1.4
1.6
1.6 3,1
1.1
1.7
1.6
1.9 2.8
2.4
1.4 2.0 2.0
3.5
2.3 3.0
2.9
3.7
4.6
5.7
2.0 2.6
2.6
3.0
3.9
3.5 3.4
1.2
1.9 2.4 2.4
2.7
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.1
1.8 2.4
1.9 2.4
2.4
2.6 3.0
3.0
3.0 2.1
2.5
2.7
2.4
2.0 2.4
2.6
3,0
3.0 3.1
3.6
3 1 3.8 4.5
6.3
2.3 2.8
2.8
3.0 3.4
3.4
3.6
3.2
3.7
2.4 2.8 2.9
4.1
4.8
3.1
3.4
3.4
3.6 3.6
3.3
/ '
3.7
4.1
2.5 2.9
3 7 3.3
4.6
3.7
4.1
3.0
3.1
3.5
3.5 3.6
3.7 3.4
4.0
2.6 3.0 3.0
3.7
3.8
4.1
4.4
3.8 4.1
3.2
3.5
3.6
2.8 3.1
3.2
3.4
3.6
4.0
46
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
4.2
4.6
4.1
4.4
2.8 3.1
3.2
3.3 3.6
3.7
3.5 3.8 4.0 4.2
3.6
3.7
3.8 4.0
3.9
2.7 3.0
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.3
3.5
3.5
3.7
3.8
3.4
3.4
3.3
2.8 3.1
3.1
3.2
3,5
3.5
3,6 3.6 3.4
3.6 3.7
3.9 3.5
3,6
3.5
4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94
Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Third quarter data are advance estimates.
4,842.0
4,867.9
4,879.9
4,880.8
4,918.5
4,947.5
4,990.5
5,060.7
5 1
3.9 2.7
1.3
20
3.0
2.7 4.2
3,3 2.7
3-94 4-94 1-95 2-95
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
January 2,1996
4
Annual Rates
5,075.3
5,105.4
5,139.4
5,218.0
5,261.1
5,314.1
5,367.0
5,433.8
5,470.1
5,487.8
5,544.6
Implicit and Chain Price Deflators for GDP
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent
Percent
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Implicit Price Deflator
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
Initial Quarter
4-90
5.0
3.9
3.5
3.3
3.4
3.3
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.9
2.7
1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.2
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.3
4-90
2.8
2.8
2.8
1987=100
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93
2.8
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.6
2.8
2.6
2.7
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.7
3.2
3.1
2.6
2.6
2.6
3.8
3.2
2.6
2.6
2.8
2.6
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.1
1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
1-95 2-95
116.4
117.2
118.0
118.8
119.9
120.7
2.7
2.0
2.2
2.5
2.3
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.0
121.1
1,3
2.0
2,4
2.2
2.0
19
2,0
2.1
2.1
2.0
2,0
2.0
1,9
2.7
3.0
2.5
3.3
2.5
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.0
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.1
2.0
2,1
2.0
1.9
1.9
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92
1.6
1.3
1.3
1.7
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.7
1.0
1.1
1.3
1.7
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.4
2.3
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.7
2.1
2.0
1.8
2.9
2.9
2.6
2.9
2,4
1.9
2.3
2.0
1.6
2.1
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.9
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93
Third quarter data are advance estimates.
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
•
2.7
3.1
3.0
2.7
2.7
2.2
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92
1.5
1.3
1.7
1.7
1,4.
2.2
1.9
1.5
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
1.6
1.1
0.6
121.9
122.9
123.4
123.7
124.1
125.0
125.9
126.5
126.9
127.6
128.1
128.3
1-95 2-95
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
January 2,1996
5
GDP Fixed Weight Deflator
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
5.3
4.2
3.1
3.8
3.1
3.1
3.6
2.9
2.7
3.0
3.6
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.7
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.6
3.5
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.4
3.3
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.4
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.4
3.3
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.1
3.3
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.2
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.2
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.1
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.9
30
3.1
3.0
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.1
2.9
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.1
2.9
2.9
2.9
30
2.9
4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93
3.4
3.0
3.0
3.2
3.1
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.8
1987=100
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
1-95 2-95
2.7
2.8
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
3.0
3.5
3.2
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.8
4.0
3.3
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.8
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92
2.6
1.9
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.2
2.6
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.9
2.9
2.9
29
2.9
2.9
3.0
3.0
2.9
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.8
27
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.8 2.8
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93
Third quarter data are advance estimates.
3.2
3.0
2.9
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.9
30
3.1
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.8 2 7 2.7 2.7
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
2.8
2.5
2.1
1-95 2-95
116.8
117.7
118.6
119.4
120.5
121.5
122.3
123.2
124.4
125.2
125.8
126.6
127.5
128.5
129.4
130.3
131.3
132.2
132.9
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
January 2,1996
Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
Initial Quarter
4-90
3.4
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.0
3.1
3.0
3.0
1-91 2-91
3.3
3.4
3,0
3.2
3.1
3.0
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.0
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.8
2.8
2.6
2,8
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.5
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.5
4-90
2.4
2.7
2.9
3.0
3.2
2.9
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.7
3-91 4-91
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92
1987=100
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93
118.5
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
1-95 2-95
119.2
3.1
3.2
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.5
1-91 2-91
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
3.3
3.5
2.9
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.4
3-91 4-91
120.1
121.1
122.1
3.7
2.6
3.1
2.9
2.8
2.6
1.6
2.8
2.7
2.6
3.9
3.3
2.9
2.6
2.4
2.0
2.5
2.5
2.1
2.5
2.3
2.2 2.3 1.9
2.4
2.3
2.4
2.1
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.2
2.4
2.3
2.4
2.2
23
2.2 2.3 2.1
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92
2.3
2.3
2.2
1.8
1.9
1.3
1.7
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.2
2,2
2.2
2.1
1.6
2.0
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.0
2.2
1.7
1.3
2.2
2.2
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.5
2.4
3.2
3.2
2.7
2.3
2.3
2.6
2.6
2.1
2,1
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93
Third quarter data are advance estimates.
123.2
123.7
124.9
125,7
126.4
126.8
127.5
127.9
128.9
3.1
2.5
2.4
2.4
1.9
2.0
2.2
1.8
22
2.3
2.1
23
1.8
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
2.5
1.7
0.9
1-95 2-95
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
January 2,1996
6
129.9
130.5
131.2
132.0
132.3
Consumer Price Index
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent
Percent
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Consumer Price Index
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
Initial Month
1982-84=100
4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95 8-95 9-95 10-95
5-94
6-94
7-94
8-94
9-94
10-94
11-94
12-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
5-95
6-95
7-95
8-95
9-95
10-95
¡11-95
1.6
2.9
3.0
3.5
3.3
3.0
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.9
3.1
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.7
4.1
3.7
4.1
3.7
3.3
3.0
2.9
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.9
3.3
4.1
3.6
3.1
2.8
5.0
3.7
3.0
2.4
2.0
1.6
1.6
2.6
2.6
2.8
2.0
2.9
2.6
2.8
2.5
3.1
3.1
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.9
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.8
2.6
2.8
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.5
2.9
2.7
2.8
2.8
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.7
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.0
2.9
3.1
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.7
1.9
2.4
2.5
1.9
2.4
2.6
2.6
2.9
2.9
2.8
1.6
2.0
2.6
2.4
32
3.2
3.0
3.4
3.4
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.7
2.5
2.8
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.7
3 1
3.1
2.9
2.9
2.7
4.1
3.7
3.2
3.6
3.6
3.2
3.1
2.9
2.8
SlMlijj
¡pittili
3.2
2.8
35
3.4
3 1
2.9
2.7
2.9
2.6
2.8
2.6
2.5
2.4
3.6
3.5
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.7
2.4
'
4.9
4.0
3.2
3.0
27
2.5
2.7
2.4
3.2
2.4
2.4
2.2
2.1
2.4
2.0
Illlft
1.6
2.0
1.9
1.8
2.2
1.8
2.4
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.6
1.6
2.4
1.9
2.4
2.8
4.0
1.8
1.8
2.0 ... 0.0
147.6
148.1
148.5
149.1
149.4
149.6
149.8
150.1
150.6
151.0
151.3
151.9
152.3
152.5
152.8
153.0
153.2
153.7
153.7
4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95 8-95 9-95 10-95
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
January 2,1996
7
Producer Price Index - Finished Goods
Percent
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Producer Price Index - Finished Goods
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
Initial Month
4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95
5-94 -LO
6-94 0.0
1.0
7-94 10
1.9
2.9
8-94 2.4
4.9
3.6
6.9
Q_Q4
1.2 1.7 1.9 1.4 -3.7
10-94 0.2
0.4
0.2 -0.6 -4.2 -4.7
11-94 12
1.6 1.7 14 -0.3 1.4 7.9
12-94 1.6
2.1 1.9 0.7 2.2 5.9 3.9
1.9
1-95 2.0 2.4
2.6 2.6 1.7 3.1 5.9 4.9 5.8
2-95 2.0
2.4
2.5
2.5
1.8 2.9 4.9 3.9 3.9 1.9
3-95 2.0 2.3
2.5
2.4
1.8 2.7 4.3 3.4 3.2 1.9 1.9
24
2.9
4-95 2.1
3.3
3 1 2.2
2.4
2.5
2.5
1.9
2.7
4.0
5-95 2.1
2.3
2.4
2.4
1.9
2.6 3.7 3.0 2.9 2.1 2.2 2.4
6-95 1.7
1.9
2.0 1.9 1.4 2.0 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.1 0 9 0.6 -0.5
7-95 1.7
1.8 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.9 2.7 2.0 1.8 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.0
1.7
1.7
8-95 1.5
1.6 1.2 1.6 2 3 1.7 1.4 0.8 0.6 0.4 -0.2
1.8 1.8 1.8 1,4 1,8 2.4 1.9 1.7 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.6
9-95, 1.6
1.6 1.7 1.6 1.2 1.6 2.2 1 6 1.4 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.3
10-95 1.5
1.9
1.9
1.8 1.5 1.9 2.4 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.1
11-95 1.7
1982=100
5-95 6-95 7-95 8-95 9-95 10-95
feffe? {M v
'/
¡illt l!
-2.8
-0.9
-0.9
0.9
0.0
-0.9
1.4 3.8
1.3
0.7
0.6 1.4 -0.9
0.9
1.7
2.4
5.8
1.9 2.8
4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95 8-95 9-95 10-95
02
0.0
125.1
125.2
125.5
126.2
125.8
125.3
126.1
126.5
127.1
127.3
127.5
127.8
128.0
127.7
127.8
127.7
128.1
128.0
128.6
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
January 2,1996
8
Employment Cost Index and Its Components
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent
Percent
, Benefits
^ — -V
t
%
1
\
\
\
\
1
1
\
I
X
" \
\
— .... ...... \
Total Corripensation
wages
\
✓
N
N
^ ^ ^
and Salairies
\
^
S
X
\
JP ***5
x •» «. _ /
N
1
1
.....1 1
—
1
1
1
1990
1989
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1
1 1 *
S
Total compensation is the sum of wages, salaries and benefits for private industry workers.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Employment Cost Index - Total Compensation
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1*93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
Initial Quarter
4-90
4.6
4.7
4.5
4.4
4.3
4.1
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.4
1-91 2-91
4-90
1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
4.9
4.5
4.3
4.2
4.0
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.4
3-91 4-91
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92
June 1989=100
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93
108.4
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
1-95 2-95
109.7
4.1
4.1
4.0
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.$
110.8
4.0
4.0
3.6
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.3
4.0
3.4
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.2
2.9
2.9
3.2
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.2
113.8
2.8
3.4
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.9
4.1
3.9
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.2
4.2
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.2
3.2
?,1
3.2
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.4
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.0
3.0
X14.6
115.7
116.9
117.9
118.9
119.9
120.8
121.8
122.8
3.0
3.2
3.2
3 1
2.9
2.9
3.4
3.3
3.1
2.9
2.9
3.3
3.0
2.7
2,5
2.3
2.8
2.6
2.6
2.8
?.8
2.7
2,5
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93
Data are for the last month of quarter.
111.9
113.0
*i
2.6
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
2.9
1-95 2-95
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
January 2,1996
9
123.6
124.3
125.2
Business Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent
Percent
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Business Sector - Output Per Hour
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
Initial Quarter
4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
3.3
2.7
2.2
2.2
1.6
2.3
2.8
2.6
19
2.7
2.5
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.7
2.3
2.1
2.8
2.1
2.1
2.1
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.2
2.0
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.3
1.1
1.8
2.6
2.5
3.8
3.1
3.1
3.2
23
2.0
2.1
2.4
2.3
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.2
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.2
2.0
2.2
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.4
2,4
5.0
3.4
3.3
3.4
2.3
1.9
2,0
2.4
2.3
1.9
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.4
2.4
4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92
1982=100
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
1-95 2-95
111.4
112.0
112.3
113.0
114.4
114.9
1.8
2.5
2.8
1.6
1.3
15
2.0
1.9
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.0
2.2
2.2
3.2
3.3
1.5
1.2
1.5
2.0
2.0
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.0
2.2
2.2
115.8
3.5
0.7
0.6
1.0
1.8
1.8
116.8
-2.0
-0.9
14
1.4
0.3
1.4
2.5
2.3
1.3
1.0
1.6
1.9
1.9
1.3
1.7
1.7
2.1
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.4
2.4
0.2
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92
1.6
2.4
3.6
3,0
1.9
4.9
3.3
1.7
1.9
2.2
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.5
2.4
2.7
2.5
2.4
2.6
27
2.8
116.2
116.3
117.0
118.4
118.9
118.5
119.5
120.7
1.7
0.2
1.2
-1.3
2.0
1.0
2.0
2.0
2.4
2.3
2.5
2.5
1.9
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93
3.4
3.7
3.2
3.5
3.2
4.1
3.0
3.6
3,2
2.0
3.3
2.9
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
4.7
3,3
2.0
121.3
122.7
123.3
1-95 2-95
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
January 2, 1996
10
Industrial Production
Seasonally Adjusted
1987=100
1989
1990
1991
1992
1987=100
1993
1994
1995
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Industrial Production
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
5-94
6-94
7-94
8-94
9-94
10-94
11-94
12-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
5-95
6-95
7-95
8-95
9-95
10-95
11-95
4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94
7.4
6.9
6.3
5.6 4.7
3.1
5.2
5.5
4.9
4.1
2.0
4.8
4.1
3.6
3.4
5.2
5.4
5.2
8.4
5.0 4.6
5.5
5.5 5.2
4.9
5.4
7.3 6.2
6.1
6.7
5.9
5.8
6.4
8.3
8.3 10.4
5.7
5.5
5.4
6.0
5.8
7.0 6.5 6.7
5.1
4.8
4.6
4.8
4.8
5.3
4.6
4.0
4.8
4.5
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.8 4.1
3.5
3.9
3.6
3.4
3.4
3.2
3.3
2.5
1.8
3.6 3.2
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.8 2.0
1.3
3.4
3.1
2.8
2.8
2.5
2.6
1.9
1.3
3.2 2.9
2.7
2.4
2.4
2.6
18
1.2
3.8
3.5
3.2
3.3
3.3
2.4
3.3
2.8
3.7 3.4
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.2
2.7 2.4
3.2
3.0
2.6
2.8
2.8
2.6
2.2
1.8
3.2 3.0
2.6
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.2
1.9
Initial Month
12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95 8-95 9-95 10-95
.
3.0
1.0 -1.0
1.3 0.5
-0.2 -1.3
-0.4 -1.2
-0.2 -0.8
0.0 -0.5
1.5
1.3
1.5
1.4
1.0 0.8
1.2
1.0
2.0
-1.5
-1.3
-0.7
-0.4
1.7
1.7
1.0
1.2
'
-4.8
-2.9
-1.6
-1.0
1.6
1.6
0.8
1.1
-1.0
0.0
0.3
3.2
3.0
1.8
2.0
1.0
1.0
4.7
4.0
2.4
2.5
1.0
6.6
5.0
2.7
2.8
12.5
7.1
3.3
3.2
-
2.0
-1.0
0.3
-3.8
-0.5
3.0
1987=100
117.5
118.1
118.4
118.9
119.1
119.9
120.5
121.5
121.8
121.7
121.9
121.4
121.3
121.4
121.5
122.7
122.9
122.5
122.8
4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95 8-95 9-95 10-95
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
January 2,1996
11
Civilian Employment and Unemployment Rate
Seasonally Adjusted
Millions of Persons
130
125
115
T---- 1---- 1---- -----1---- 1---- 1---- ----LT---- 1---- 1---- -----1
---- 1
1989
1990
1991
I
1
1992
I
1
1
1993
1
1
1994
r
1995
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
■* Break in series. January 1994 figures reflect revised data collection procedures and are not directly
comparable with previous data.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Civilian Employment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
5-94
6-94
7-94
8-94
9-94
10-94
11-94
12-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
5-95
6-95
7-95
8-95
9-95
10-95
11-95
Thousands of
Persons
Initial Month
4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95
3.0
1.1 -0.7
1.2 0.4 1-4
2.0 1.6 2.8 4.1
4.4
2.5
3.3
4.3
2.3
2.9
2.8 3.7 4.5 4.7 4.9
2.8 2.8 3.5 4.0 4.0 3.7 2.6
2.7
2.6 3.2 3.5 3.4 3.0 2.1 1.6
2.4
2.4
2,8 3.0 2.6 2.4 1.6 1.1 0.7
2.7
2.6 3.1 3.3 3.2 2.9 2.4 2.3 2.7 4.8
2.6 2.5 2,9 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.2 2.1 2.3 3.1 1.4
2.2 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.0 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.4 -0.3
1.4
1.3
1.5
1.5
1.2 0.8 0.2 -0.1 -0.5 -0.8 -2.6
1.5
1.3
1.5
1.5
0.9
0.4
1.3
0.1 -0.1 -0 3 -1.5
1.7
1.6 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.5 -0.3
1.5
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.3
1.0 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 -0.6
1.6 1-5 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.0
1.6 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.3
1.3
1 2 1.4 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 -o a
3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95 8-95 9-95 10-95
•
-1.9
-4 5
-2.5
-0,6
-0.9
-0.2
-7.0
-2.8
-0.4
-0.7
0.2
0.5
0.1
1.6
3.1
15
4.7
1.4
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.2
1.0
-1.7
3.5
3.0
2.5
-0.3 -0,1 • 1*1
0.1
o r -0.6 -3.7
4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95 8-95 9-95 10-95
0.9
1.4
122,703
122,635
122,781
123,197
123,644
124,141
124,403
124,570
124,639
125,125
125,274
125,072
124,319
124,485
124,959
124,779
125,140
125,399
125,010
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
January 2, 1996
12
Payroll Employment
Seasonally Adjusted
Millions
Millions
120
1 20
1
115
115
I
1 10
t
1
110
105
105
1
100
'“ I"
1
.......
1
1989
----- T
k
--------------
1990
1991
1"
1992
1--------------- ---------------î -------------- 1--------------- r
1993
1
T
......' T
1994
r
r
1—
T—
1
100
1995
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Payroll Employment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
5-94
6-94
7-94
8-94
9-94
10-94
11-94
12-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
5-95
6-95
7-95
8-95
9-95
10-95
11-95
Initial Month
Thousands
4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95 8-95 9-95 10-95
3.0
3.1
3.3
2.9
2.8 2,4
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.6
2.7
3.0
3.0
2.9
3.1
2.8 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.2 1.8
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.5
5.3
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.1
2.9
3.0
3.7
2.1
2.9
2.9
2,8 2.9 2.7 2.8 3.1 2.0 1.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.8 2.9 3.1 2.4 2.6 3.3
2.8 2.8 2,8 2,8 2.7 2.7 2.9 2.3 2.4 2.6 1.9
2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.4 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.0 0.1
2.3
2.2 2.2 2.0 1.9 2.0 1 4 1.3 1.1 0.4 -0.3 -0.6
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.1 2.1 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.1 0.8 1.2 3.1
2.3
2.3
2,2 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 Ï.5
2.3
2.2 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.1 1 4 2.0 1.5 2.7
2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.2 l . i 1.3 1.8 1 3 1.9 LO
2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.2 1.5 0.8 0.7
2.1 2.1 2,0 2,0 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.2 L I 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.1 1.2 L7
4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95 8-95 9-95 10-95
113,638
113,943
114,171
114,510
1Ï4.762
114,935
115,427
115,624
115,810
116,123
116,302
116,310
116,248
116,547
116,575
116,838
116,932
116,998
117,164
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
January 2,1996
13
Real Personal Income
Seasonally Adjusted
Trillions of Dollars
Trillions of Dollars
Real incomes are computed using the personal consumption expenditure deflator (1987=100).
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Real Disposable Personal Income
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
Billions of Dollars
Initial Month
Annual Rates
3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95 8-95
3.803,1
3,790.9
3.822.9
3,820.9
3.826.0
3,839.2
ipsM I
3.857.6
3,907.0
:
£
2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95
3-94 3J
4-94 -0.4 -3.8
5-94 3.2
3.2 10.6
6-94 2.2
1.9
4.8 -0.6
7-94 2,1
1.8 3.8 0,5 1.6
8-94 2.4
2.3
3.9
1.7
2.9
4.2
9-94 2.9
2.9
2.7
4.3
3.9
5.1 5.9
10-94 4.5
4.7
62
5.4
6.9
8.7 11.1 16 5
3.8
5,0
11-94 3.8
4,3
5.0
6.5
6.8 -2 2
5.9
12-94 4.2
4.3
5.4
4.7
3.0
8.4
6.9
7.3
5.6
6.4
4.3
5.2
1-95 4.2
3.9
4.6 5.3
6.0 6.3 6.4 3.3
5.2
4.2
3.3
3.7
2-95 4.1
5.1
4.5
5.8
5.1
5.9
3.5
5.6
4.9
3.5
3-95
4.2
5.5
3.8
5.0
4.4
5.0
5.6
3.8
4.0
5.4
0.5
1.1 -0.7 -2.2 -4.9
4-95 2.8 2.8
2.7
3.3
2.7
3.2
3.0
3.1
1.6 2,2 1.0 0.3 -0.7
5-95 3.1
3.3
3.1
3.7
3.7
3.1
3,5
3.6
6-95 3.2
3.5
2.0 2.6 1.7 1.2 0.6
33
3.8
3.7
3.3
3.6
3.8
3.0
3.4
3.7
2.4
2.2 1.9 1,6
7-95 3.4
3.9 ■3.4
3.?
3.9
3.9
3.2
2 1 2.6 1.9 1.6 1.3
8-95 3.2
3.6
3.2
3.5
3.6
3.6
33
3.7
3.7
9-95 33 3,3 3,7 3 3 3
2,4 2.8 2,2 M 1.8
2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95
t
t<?
liti
'■
Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
'
-13.0
-3.0
-0.5
10
0.8
8.3
6.5
6.2
4.6
4.8
5.2
3.4
4.6... 3.7
5.6
2.7
-0.2
3 ,4 ....2.3.....4,9...........
3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95 8-95
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
January 2,1996
14
3.899.9
3,926.1
3,938.6
3,950.0
3.962.9
3,917.0
3,943.0
3,958.4
3.976.3
3,975.7
3.991.5
Retail Sales
Seasonally Adjusted
Billions of Dollars
Billions of Dollars
The CPI is used to deflate retail sales data (1982—84=100).
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Real Retail Sales
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
Initial Month
Billions of Dollars
10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95 8-95 9-95 10-95
124.090
V:''
0.1
0.8
1.1
-2.2
-0.7
-1.5
0.1
1.2
0.3
0.9
1.4
1.5
-3.0
-0.9
- 1.8
0.1
1.3
0.3
1.0
0.7
-0.2
0.5
0-6
;■
5.8
0.0
-5.4
3.3
4.7
2.4
3.1
2.3
0.9
2.1 10.2
1.8
1.3
4.4
1.5
2.6
1.7
0.2
9.6
4,0
4.6
3.2
9.0
1.1
2 .?
-0.6
1.0
2.8
1.5
-6.4
-0.1
-0.9
-2.8
-0 5
6.7
«
0.6
-0.2
1.7
-5.1 -11.4
- 1.6 -3.2
-2.6 -3.9
-0.1 -0.6
1.3
1.3
0.2 -0.1
1.0 0.9
0.6 0.4
-0.4 -0.6
0.5
0.4
S
4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94
5-94 -4.3
9.4
6-94 2.3
7-94 1.1
3.8 -1 5
6.5
5.0 12.0
8-94 3.7
3.7
5.8
4.6
7.8
9-94 3.7
7.3 10.5
9.7 16.0
7.8
10-94 5.7
5.9
6-4
6.4
7.8
11-94 4.8
7.8
5.7
5.1
6.5
5.1
5.6
12-94 4.4
5.7
4.4
5.2
4.6
1-95 4.1
4.6
3.0
1.6 1.2
3.2
2.5
2-95 2.4
2.8 3.4 2.2 1.9
3.5
3-95 2.7
4-95 2.0
2.6 2.0 2.4 1.2 0.9
2.7
2 2 2.0
5-95 2.6
3.2
3.1
2.8 2.7
6-95 3.1
3.7
3.2
3.6
7-95 2.4
2.9
2.4
2.8 2.0 1.8
2.2
8-95 2.7
3.2
2.7
3.1
2.3
2.8 2.4 2.6 2.0 1.8
9-95 2.4
2.1 1.7 19 1.2 1.0
10-95
1.7
11-95 2.1
2.5
2.1 2 .? 1 7 1.6
-5.5 -8.4
9.5
-0,8 0.1
4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95 8-95 9-95 10-95
-1.6
1.0
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
January 2,1 9 96
Dollars are measured using the CPI (1982-84=100).
10
125.026
124.872
126.056
126.437
128.015
128.027
128.176
128.353
127.065
127.662
127.072
128.107
129.032
128.318
129.010
128.734
127.797
128.764
15
Total Business Inventory/Sales Ratio
Seasonally Adjusted
h -------- ï-------- 1-------- --------- t-------- 1 -
1989
i-------- 1-------- 1-------- ---------1-------- 1-------- r
1990
1991
1992
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Inventories and Sales
(Billions of Dollars)
Manufacturing
Period
1992
1993
1994
1) Inventories (2)
379.24
2931.95
3100.14
377.43
3364.60
391.81
Retail Trade
Total Business(3)
Sales (1)
1944.61
2072.61
2233.27
Inventories (2)
251.99
267.68
290.02
Sales (1)
6720.25
7113.59
7671.43
Inventories
838.90
860.98
916.55
1994
December
296.05
391.81
192.39
290.02
671.28
916.55
1995
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
297.79
298.56
298.44
295.29
297.09
298.71
293.47
303.02
304.28
303.16
NA
396.10
399.73
402.08
405.68
408.29
410.01
412.42
413.15
416.18
417.82
NA
193.30
191.87
193.15
193.02
195.11
196.77
196.07
197.39
197.22
196.42
197.91
294.30
296.00
297.20
299.69
300.53
300.33
299.41
302.50
303.24
305 89
NA
673.92
675.48
674.80
672.91
678.44
682.96
675.78
687.61
689.80
687.18
NA
928.67
936.09
942.74
952.24
956.52
960.16
964.89
968.66
973.48
979.56
NA
1. Annual data are sums of monthly shipments/sales.
2. Annual data are end-of-year stocks.
3. Total business is the sum of manufacturing, retail trade and merchant wholesalers.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
16
Real Final Sales and Real GDP
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent
Percent
Real final sales and real GDP are measured using 1987 prices.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Real Final Sales
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
4-90
1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
1*91
2-91
-2.4
-0.3
1.8
3-91
-0.5
0,5
4-91
-0.4
1-92
2-92
0.6
0.8
3-92
1.1
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92
Annual Rates
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
1-95 2-95
4,858.4
4.879.8
0.2
-0.8
-0.5
-0.2
1.4
1.2
2.3
4.8
1.3
2.0
3.1
1.5
1.7
2.4
3.2
2.5
3.5
4,869.5
4,867.3
4,924.8
4-92
1.7
1.4
1.7
2.3
2.4
3.0
3.8
3.5
4.5
5.6
1*93
1.5
2.0
2.1
2.5
3.1
2.7
3 1
2.9
0.2
3.0
2.6
2.9
2.7
1.3
4,943.2
4,985.3
2-93
1.6
2.1
2.1
2.5
3-93
1.7
2.2
2.2
2.6
4-93
2.1
2.6
2.6
3.0
3.4
3.2
3.5
3.5
1-94
2.1
2.5
2.6
2.9
3.3
3.1
3.3
3.3
5,054.1
27
5,056.8
2.4
5,086.5
2.8
3.2
3.0
4.0
4.8
6.4
2.9
3.5
3.9
4.3
3.3
3.4
1.8
1.5
3.5
3.6
2.6
2.9
2-94
2.1
2.4
2.5
2.8
3.1
2.9
3.1
3.1
2.6
3-94
2.2
2.6
2.6
2.9
3.2
3.1
3.2
3.2
2.9
5,126.5
5,207.2
2.2
5,235.7
4-94
2.4
2.8
2.9
3.1
3.4
3.3
3.5
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.3
3.7
3.9
4.0
3.4
3.8
5.0
5.7
1-95
2.5
2.8
2.«
3.1
3.4
3.2
3.4
3.4
3.1
3.5
3.7
3.8
3.2
3.5
4.2
4,1
2-95
2.5
2.8
2.8
3.1
3.3
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.1
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.1
3.3
3.8
3.6
2.6
2.6
?-95
2.6
M
2.9
9rl
3.4
3<2
{?§
i*.7
3.3
3.9
3.8
3.1
3.4
4-90
1-91 2-91
3-91 4-91
33
34
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93
Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Third quarter data are advance estimates.
3$
5,254.9
4.3
5,310.0
5,384.4
2.6
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
5,419.0
5,453.5
4 2
5.509.3
1-95 2-95
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
January 2,1 9 96
17
Components of Real GDP Growth Rate
3-95
Real GDP
4.20
2- 95
1.30
1-95
2.70
4-94
5.07
3-94
2-94
1 -94
4-93
4.04
4.09
3.35
6.26
Components (1)
Final Sales
4.13
2.55
2.57
5.66
4.21
1.47
2.20
6.43
Change in Business
Inventories
0.07
- 1.22
0.13
-0.57
-0.16
2.59
1.12
-0.17
Personal Consumption
Expenditures
1.97
2.24
1.06
3.39
2.04
0.88
3.11
2.67
1.55
1.40
1.40
1.67
3.38
1.67
1.09
1.26
2.30
-0.27
0.30
0.41
1.05
Fixed Investment
Nonresidential
Residential
0.87
2.47
1.12
1.48
2.63
0.42
-0.61
-0.15
2.22
2.12
0.10
Government Purchases
0.51
0.04
-0.13
-0.73
1.13
-0.21
-0.89
-0.02
0.28
-0.18
-0.24
-0.97
0.66
-0.53
-0.72
-0.35
0.23
0.21
0.11
0.25
0.46
0.31
-0.16
0.33
0.07
-0.60
-0.84
0.74
-0.39
-0.59
-1.66
0.32
1.34
0.84
0.61
2.36
1.71
1.86
-0.43
2.35
-1.27
-1.43
-1.44
-1.59
-2.08
-2.41
-1.24
-1.99
Federal
State and Local
Net Exports
Exports
Imports
(1) Contribution of each component to the compound annual rate of real GDP growth in each quarter indicated.
Elements may not sum to the total due to rounding.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 2-95
*2.8
2.1
-0.4
0.2 1.7 1.3
0.4 -0.5
0.9
3,265.3
-0.0
3,311.4
1.1 2.1 2.1 2.6 5.8
1.2 2.0 2.0 2.3 3.7 1.7
3,357.6
1.6 2.3 2.4 2.7 3.8 2.8 3.9
2.1 2.8 2.9 3.3 4.2 3.7 4.7 5.6
*
2.0 2.7 2.7 3.0 3.7 3.2 3.7 3.6 1.6
2.1 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.5 3.1 3.4 3.3 2.1 2.6
*
2.3
2.8 2.8 3.0 3.6 3.2 3.5 3.4 2.7 3.2 3.9
'
<v' it - ,
3.6
3.3
3.6
3.2
3.5
3.0 3.5
2.4
3.9
2.9
3.0
4.0
2.6 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.7 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.3 3.8 4.2 4 3 4.7
3.5
3.2
3.4
3.1
3.4
3.0 3.3
3.4
2.9
3.0
3.3
2.5
3.0
1.3
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.4
3.3
3.0 3.2
3.4
3.0
2.9
3.2
3.0
2.2 3.1
2.5
3.3
3.6
3.4
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.3
3.5
3.0
3.1
3.6
4.1
5.1
2.7
3.5
3.1
2.6 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.4 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.1 2 8 3.2 3.3 1.6
3.2
3.4
3.4
3.0
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.0
3.4
3.1
3.3
2.5
3.3
3.2
3.3
3.3
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.0
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.1
3.2 i 3.1
2.6 3.2 2.9
3.3
3.3
2.9
3.2
3.2
2.7
4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 2-95
Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Third quarter data are advance estimates.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
January 2,1996
18
3,242.9
3,259.5
3.269.8
3,325.4
3,403.4
3,417.2
3,439.2
3,472.2
3,506.2
3,546.3
3,557.8
3,584.7
3,629.6
3,643.9
3.674.3
3,701.1
Real Residential Fixed Investment
(Compound Annual R a te s o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
4-90
-24.8
-12.3
-3.8
0.7
4,7
7.5
6,5
8.5
1-91 2-91
15.6
15.6
17.8
19.0
15 1
16 5
14.9
6.8 10.6
8.4 12.0
11.5
13.1
6.5
8.5
8.4
7.4
7.0
6.4
5.2
55
4-90
3-91 4-91
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
1-95 2-95
2.2
8.7
10.9
13.7
15.4
12 9
14.4
13.2
10.7
8.2
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
Initial Quarter
■*y
15.6
18.9 22.4
186.7
20.2 22.6
22.7
15.0
16 7
14.7
11,2 0.8
14.8
17.0
14.6
10.5
10.4
12 5
11.8 11.2
11.0
12 8
11.9 12,8 12.5 12.2
11.5 12 3 12.0 11.6
10.1 10,8 10.4 9,9
9.6 10.1 9.7
9.3
8.7
8.7
9.2
8,2
7.3
7.6
7.5
7,8
1-91 2-91
164.2
165.1
171.2
177.5
7.1
6.5
7.3
6.8
3-91 4-91
196.5
15.3
12.7
8.3
8.5
11.7 23.8
9 5 34.2 5.3
5.0
6.4 -1.3 -7.6
59
7,2
2.1 0.6
11.1 9.3 11.1 8.1 9.0
11,0 9.4 30,9 8.5 9.3
10.5 9.1 10.3 8.2
8.8
8.7
73
8.1 6.1 6.2
8.1 6.8 7 5 5.6 5.6
7.1
6,3
4.4
5.8
4.5
5.4
4.0
4.3
2.6 2.2
5.7
4,5
4,9
3.3
3.1
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93
196.9
207.7
210.4
206.3
9.4
18.4 28.2
15.5 18,7
13.3 14.7
9,1
9.2
8 0 7.7
5.8
6.3
2.7
3.5
211.0
224.5
229.9
233.8
230.2
231.5
229.5
10.0
8.5
3.4
3 1
1.8
- 1.0
0.6
7.0
0,3
09
*0.2
-3.0
-6.0
-2 0
-2.4
-5.4
4.3
37
-0.8 -2.3
2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94
2.3
-0,6
-5.2
-3 4
-8.7 -13.7
-1 4 -2.6 -2.2 10.9
3-94 4-94 1-95 2-95
221.2
227,0
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
January 2 ,1996
Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Third quarter data are advance estimates.
Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
Initial Quarter
4-90
-12.7
-7.9
-6.3
-6.2
-5.0
-1.9
- 1.0
0.1
1.6
3.0
3.8
5.1
5.5
5.8
6.3
7.0
7.8
1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
-3.0
-3.0
-3.9
-2.9
0.4
1.1
2.0
3.6
4.9
-3.0
-4.4
-2.9
1.3
2.0
2.9
4.6
5.9
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93
1-95 2-95
522.2
518.3
514.4
-5.7
-2.9
2.7
3,3
4.1
5.9
7.2
7.8
9.2
9.4
9.4
9.7
10.3
5.6
6.6
6.9
7.9
7,2
8.2
7.4
83
7,8
8.7
8.5
9.3
9.2 10.1 11.1
8.0 9.4 10.2 11.1
8.0 9 3 10.1 10,9
4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91
506.9
-0.1
7.2
6.4
6.7
8.3
9.5
9.9
506.8
15.0
9.9
9 1
10.6
11.6
11.7
11.2 13.0
11.2 12.7
11.0 12.3
11.3 12.5
11.8 12.9
12.5 13.6
12.4 13.4
12 1 13.1
4-91 1-92
524.8
531.2
50
62
75
11.3 15,1
12.7 15.4
11.0 12 6 14.3
12.6 14 2 16.0
12 4 13.7 14.9
12.0 13.0 13.9
12.2 13 1 14.0
12.7 13.6 14.4
13,5 14.4 15.2
13.3 14.1 14.8
12.9 13.6 34,2
2-92 3-92 4-92
9 1
10 7
540.9
560.3
15.6
13.9
16.2
14.9
13.7
13.8
14.3
15.2
14.8
141
1-93
12,2
16.5
14,6
13.2
13.4
14.1
15.1
14.6
13.9
2-93
Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
21.1
15.9
13.6
13.7
14.5
15.6
15.0
14 1
3-93
10.9
10.0
9.2
11.4
12.9
14.6
14.0
13.2
4-93
11.6
13.6
15.5
14.7
13 6
1-94
14.1
15.9
17,7
16 1
14.5
2-94
17.6
19,6
16.7
14.6
3-94
21.5
16.3 11.3
13.5 9,7
8.3
4-94 1-95 2-95
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of
January 2, 1996
19
581.0
597.9
627.2
643 6
657.9
680.0
708.2
743.6
763.7
779.0
St. Louis
Real Government Purchases of Goods and Services
(Compound Annual R a te s o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-91
2-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
Initial Quarter
4-90
3.0
1.7
1-91 2-91
-0.8
-0.4
-0.8
-0.2
-0.1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.4
-0.7
-0.8
-0.3
-0.5
-0.6
-0.5
-0.3
4-90
-2.1 -3.4
- 1.2 - 1.8
- 1.6 -2.1
♦0.8 - 1.0
-0.5 -0.7
- 1.2 -1.5
- 1.0 - 1.1
-0.7 -0.9
-0.7 -0.8
- 1.1 -1 2
- 1.1 - 1.2
-0.5 -0.6
-0.8 -0.9
-0.8 -0.9
-0.7 -0.8
-0.5 -0.6
1-91 2-91
3-91 4-91
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93
llllllll
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
1-95 2-95
949.5
950.6
0.5
-2.9
-0.7
-1.5
-0.3
-0.1
- 1.1
-0.7
-0.5
-0.5
-0.9
-0.9
-0.3
-0.6
-0.6
-0.6
1.5
-0.8
-3.0
0.6
0.1
3.4
0.7
-0.7
-0.4
-0.2
-0.2
-0.7
-0.7
-0.1
-0.4
-0.5
-0.4
0.4
- 1.2
-0.7
-0.4
-0.4
2.1
-0.6
-0.2
0.1
0.1
-04
-0.2
3-91 4-91
0.9
-2.5
-1.3
-0.7
-0.6
- 1.0 -0.7 “1.3
- 1.0 -0.7 -1.3
-0.2 0.1 -0.3
-0.6 -0.4 -0.8
-0.6 -0.4 -0.8
-0.6 -0.3 -0.7
-0.4
-0.3
1-92 2-92 3-92
-5.9
-2.4
- 1.2
- 1.0
1.2
1.1
0.7
-0.7
-0.8
0.4
-0.3
-0.3
-0.3
1.1
0.5
-1.3
-1.3
-0.1
-2.5
-2.1
-4.9
-1.7
-3.1
0.2 0.0 0.1
-0.5
-0.5 -0.8 - 1.0
- 1.0
-0.5 -0.8 -0.9
- 1.0
-0.4 -0.7 -0.8
-0.8
-Q.5 0.1 -0.1 -0T2 -0.2
4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93
Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Third quarter data are advance estimates.
- 1.2
2.6
6.7
1.1
0.1 0,5
0.1 0.4
0.6 0.9
1-94 2-94
0.3
-4.1
-2.5 -0.7
-1.6 -0.3
-0.4
Q.8
3-94 4-94
0.2
1.6
3.1
1-95 2-95
934.4
937.8
930.7
938.5
940.6
926.5
929.3
931.8
931.5
919.9
917.1
932.0
922.2
920.5
921.0
928.0
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
January 2,1996
Real Federal Purchases of Goods and Services
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-90 1-91 2-91
9.3
4.0 - 1.1
- 1.0 -5.8 - 10.2
-3.2 -7.1 -9.9
-2.8 -5.6 -7.1
-3.2 -5.5 -6.5
- 1.6 -3.3 -3.7
- 1.2 -2.7 -2.9
-2.9 -4.3 -4.8
-3.0 -4.3 -4.7
-3.0 -4.1 -4.5
-3.2 -4.2 -4.5
-3.7 -4.7 -5.1
-4.0 -5.0 -5.3
-3.1 -3.9 -4.1
-3.8 -4.7 -4.9
-3.8 -4.6 -4.8
-3.8 -4.5 -4.7
-4.0 -4.2
4-90 1-91 2-91
3-91 4-91
-9.5
-5.5 -1.3
-5.3 -3.1
0.7
-2.0
-1.4
0.8
-3.9 -2.7
-3.8 -2.8
-3.7 “2.9
-3.9 -3.1
-4.5
3.9
-4.8 -4.4
-3.6 -3.1
-4.5 -4.1
-4.4 -4.0
-4.3 -4.0
-3.8 -3.4
3-91 4-91
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92
1-94 2-S4 3-94 4-94
1-95 2-95
8,6
4.8
-2.4
-2.7
1.1
-7.5
-6.2
-5.4
-3.1 -5.3
“4.2 -6.2
-4.7 -6.4
“3.1 -4.4
-4.3 -5.6
-4.2 -5.4
-4.1 -5.2
-3,4 -4.4
2-92 3-92
“15.4
-9.7
-7.5
-6.9
-7.6
-7.6
-5.2
-6.4
-6.1
-5.8
-4.9
4-92
-3.6
-3.3
-3.9
-5.5
-6.0
-3.4
-5.0
-4.9
-4.7
-3.7
1-93
-3.0
-4.0
- 6.1
-6.6
-3.3
-5.3
-5.1
-4.8
-3.8
2-93
Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Third quarter data are advance estimates.
Annual Rates
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93
*
-4.8
1.7
15
-3.0
-3.1
-3.1
-3.4
-4.3
-4.7
-3.2
-4.3
-4.3
-4.2
-3.5
1-92
&
<x>
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
-5.0
-7.7
-7.8
-3.4
-5.7
-5.4
-5.0
-3.9
3-93
-10.3
-9.1 -7.9
-2.9
1,1 10.9
-5.9 -4.4 -2.6 -14.4
-5.5 -4.2 -3.0 -9.3 -3.8
-5.1 -4.0 -3.0 -7.2 -3.4
-3.7 - 2,6 -1.4 -4.3 -0.7
4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
-2.9
0.9
4.9
1-95 2-95
395.2
394.1
383.6
374.1
372.9
368.3
376.0
377.0
361.6
358.3
355.6
351.1
341.7
334.7
343.5
330.4
327.2
324.8
328.7
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
January 2,1 9 96
20
Real Exports
(Compound Annual R a te s o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
-1.1
9.3 20.7
6.3 10.2 0.6
7.0 13.7
8.1 11.4
y 10.0 6.7
9,8 6.1
H ttill
8.3
5.3
6.6
7.0 3.8
1.5
7.8
6,6 4.3
6,4
5.3
3,4 5.3
56
6.7
6.5 . 7.7
5.0
4.6
6.2
7.2
57
6.5 4.7
5,4 3.8 3,2 3.8 3.0 -1 0
6.7
5.0
4.4 4.1
5.9
5.7
4.7
4.6
7.7
3.2
5.0
3.1 2.5
1.0 2.1 -3.2
5.7
5.4
7.0
6.3
5.3 6 0
6.1
6.3
5.8 8.2
8.5
4.8
5.3 4.4
4.2 4.6 4.4
5.5 6.1
5.2 4.3
39
5.5
5.5 6.0
7.4
6.9
5.8
6.3
6.1
5.9
7.3
6.3
7,0 6.4 6*4“ 6.9
7-2 7.1 8 6
8.7
6.8 7.4 6.4
8.2
7.4
7.4
7.6 8.2
8.7 10 2 10.6
7.6
7.9
8.5
7,3
7.2
7,7 7.2
7.9 8.2
8.3 9.5 9.7
7.4 8.0
7.3
9.2 9.3
7.9
7.2
7.2
7.8 8.0
8.1
7.4
7.6
7.5
7.4
7,8 7.4
8.0 8.2 8.3 9.3 9.5
76
8.1
4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-95 2-95
519.0
544.0
544.8
1
562.6
571.0
573.1
580.5
590.7
589.2
600.2
595.3
625.2
619.6
643.9
666.5
697.9
706.2
717.6
735.9
f-V
. .»
21.7
8.3 -3.5
11.0 6.1 16.6
12.0 8.9 15.7
13.6 11.6 17.2
12.1 10,2 14.0
11.3 9.6 12.5
U .2
9,8 12.2
3-93 4-93 1-94
Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Third quarter data are advance estimates.
14,8
17.5
13,1
11.4
11.3
2-94
20.2
12.3 4.8
10.4
5.7
6.6
10.4
7 3 8.6 10,6
3-94 4-94 1-95 2-95
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
January 2 ,1996
Real Imports
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
14.4
12.4
10.0
9.2
9.9
9.7
9.2
9.5
10.1
9.8
10.4
10.3
10.9
11 3
11.3
11.2
11.1
11.0
1-91
10.4
5.4
7.9
7.5
6.0 6.6
8.8
8.3
9.8
8.7
8.3 9.3
8.4
8.0
8.6
8.6 9.2
8.8
9.4 10.1
9.6
9.2 9,7
9.3
10.0 9.9 10.5
9.9 10,4
9.9
10.6 10.7 11.2
11.0 11.1 11.6
11.1 11.1 11.6
11.0 11.0 11,5
10.9 11.0 11.4
10 8 11,2
2-91 3-91 4-91
—
o
CC
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-90
-12.2
0.2
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.9
6.2
6.3
6.9
7.6
7.6
8.3
8.4
9.1
9.5
9.6
9.7
9.7
9.6
4-90
Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
13.0
10.7
9.3
9.9
10.8
10.2
11.1
10.9
11.7
12.1
12 0
11.9
11.7
11.5
1-92
8,4
7.4
8,8
10.3
9.7
10.7
10.6
11.6
12.0
11.9
11.8
11.6
11,4
2-92
539.4
557.8
571.8
579.4
588.8
607.1
619.4
6.5
9.0
10.9
10.0
11.2
10.9
12.0
12.5
12.4
12.1
11.9
116
13.2
11.2
12.4
11.8
13.0
13.3
13.1
12.8
12.5
1 1 .6
12.1
3-92 4-92
629.3
14.9
11.1
12.7
11.9
13.2
13.6
13.3
12.9
12.6
12.2
1-93
7.4
11.6
10.9
12.8
13,4
13.1
12.6
12.3
11.9
2-93
Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Third quarter data are advance estimates.
Annual Rates
1-95 2-95
16.0
12.7
14.7
15.0
14.2
13.5
13.0
12.4
3-93
9.5
14.1
14.6
13.8
13.0
12.5
11.9
4-93
18.9
17,2 15.6
15.3 13.5 11.4
14,0 12.4 10,8 10.1
13.1 11.7 10.5 10.0 9.9
9,2
8.6
12,4 11.1 10.0 9.5
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 2-95
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
January 2,1 9 96
21
646.8
669.6
681.6
707.4
723.6
755.6
783.5
805.0
824.6
844.3
861.8
Trade and Current Account Balances
Current Prices
Billions of Dollars
1989
Billions of Dollars
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
The goods and services trade balance and the current account are for the current plus 3 previous
quarters until 1993. Since 1993, the goods and services trade balance uses the current plus
previous 11 months.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
U.S. International Transactions
(Millions of Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted)
3-95
2-95
1 - 95
4-94
3-94
2-94
1 -94
197,594
194,599
189,189
184,873
178,274
171,823
166,231
166,422
44,619
45,471
43,254
38,307
36,031
32,338
30,942
30,412
4-93
Exports
Goods and Services
Income Receipts on U.S. Assets Abroad
Imports
Goods and Services
Income Payments on Foreign Assets in the U.S.
-225,113 -228,032 -218,629 -212,340 -207,081 -198,746 -189,247 -186,912
-48,772
-48,085
-45,215
-42,878
-38,564
-34,623
-30,826
-30,376
Balance on Current Account
-39,482
-43,267
-39,025
-43,277
-39,714
-37,986
-30,271
-31,176
Change in U.S. Assets Abroad
-42,852 -100,242
-75,343
-55,156
-27,940
-5,973
-36,783
-77,657
U.S. Official Reserve Assets
U.S. Private Assets
Change in Foreign Assets in the U.S.
-1,893
-2,722
-5,318
2,033
-165
3,537
-59
-673
-41,095
-97,340
-69,873
-56,258
-27,492
-10,001
-37,125
-76,666
94,841
84,715
79,736
46,526
80,390
99,458
10,977
24,311
69,413
75,147
105,664
124,331
Foreign Official Assets
39,479
37,836
22,308
-421
19,691
9,162
Other Foreign Assets
66,185
86,495
72,533
85,136
60,045
37,364
Note: Negative values indicate dollar outflows from the United States.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
22
Gross Saving as a Percent of GDP
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent
Percent
Total saving equals private saving (personal saving plus business saving) plus government surplus or deficit.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Gross Saving and Investment
(Billions of Dollars and Percent of GDP)
Gross Saving
Period
$ Billion
O/ /
Gross Private Saving
Gross Private
Domestic Investment
U.S. Net
Foreign Investment
$ Billion
% of GDP
$ Billion
% of GDP
$ Billion
% of GDP
1991: 1
2
3
4
798.8
744.5
722.1
740.1
14.2
13.0
12.5
12.8
933.2
937.3
917.9
960.7
16.6
16.4
15.9
16.6
732.8
733.1
756.5
756.8
13.0
12.8
13.1
13.1
55.8
17.6
-22.2
-18.8
1.0
0.3
-0.4
-0.3
1992:1
2
3
4
719.1
722.3
731.9
718.5
12.2
12.1
12.1
11.6
979.1
981.2
1005.3
957.5
16.6
16.4
16.6
15.5
747.7
787.9
795.5
822.0
12.7
13.2
13.2
13.3
-26.6
-54.1
-59.9
-85.6
-0.5
-0.9
-1.0
-1.4
1993: 1
2
3
4
760.1
775.0
788.9
825.8
12.2
12.3
12.4
12.7
1022.0
986.6
989.9
1011.4
16.4
15.7
15.6
15.6
853.8
869.7
882.2
922.5
13.7
13.8
13.9
14.2
-68.3
-88.9
-98.8
-113.2
-1.1
-1.4
-1.6
-1.7
1994:1
2
3
4
886.2
923.3
922.6
950.3
13.5
13.8
13.6
13.8
1037.3
1041.4
1052.7
1082.7
15.8
15.6
15.5
15.7
966.6
1034.4
1055.1
1075.6
14.7
15.5
15.5
15.6
-116.4
-135.1
-153.6
-167.7
-1.8
-2.0
-2.3
-2.4
1995:1
2
3
1006.0
983.8
NA
14.4
14.0
NA
1126.4
1090.0
NA
16.1
15.5
NA
1107.8
1094.1
1113.4
15.9
15.6
15.7
-160.4
-177.3
NA
-2.3
-2.5
NA
Note: Gross Saving equals Gross Private Domestic Investment plus U.S. Net Foreign Investment minus a statistical discrepancy.
U.S. Net Foreign Investment is the excess of U.S. investment abroad over foreign investment in the U.S..
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
23
Corporate Profits After-Tax
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
7.4
35.4 70.7
24.6 34.1
5.4
15.2 18.0 -1.9 -8.7
14.1 15.9
1.8 0.1 9.7
14.7 16.2
5.5
5.6 13.6 17.6
11.1 11.7 2.6 2.0 5.8 3.9
3.7
3.2 -5.1 -7.1 -6.7 -11.5
11.6 12.1 5.6 5.6 8.7 8.5
10.2 10.5 4.7 4.6 7.0 6.4
11.8 12.2 7.1 7.3 9.9 9.9
13.4 14.0
9.5
9.9 12.5 12.9
14.3 14.9 10.8 11.4 13.9 14.4
11.4 11.8
7.9
8.1 10.0 10.0
9.7 11.5 11,7
12.5 12.9
9.3
11.9 12.2
8.9
9.1 10.8 10.9
10.9 11.2
8.0 8.2 9.6 9.6
10.7 10.8
7.9
8.1 9.4 9.4
10,8 110 8.2 8.4 9.6 9.6
3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
1-92 2-92
Initial Quarter
3-92 4-92
1-93
-8.2
-23.3 -35.8
5.6 13.3 100.2
8.2 40.5 -1.4
3.8
8.4 13.0 36.5
12.7
12.2 16.8 35.6 19.1
14.0 18.2 33.5 20.6
9.1 11.8 22.7
11.2
11.0 13.7 23.4 13.9
10.2 12.5 20.7 12.2
8.9 10.8 17.8
10.2
8.7 10.4
9.7
16.5
9.0 10.6 16,2 10.1
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92
28.8
30.9
29.0
14.6
17.2
14.7
12.0
11.2
11.4
1-93
Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
2-93
3-93 4-93
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
1-95
33.1
29.1 25.3
10.2 0.3 -19.7
14.4 8.8
1.4 28.1
12.1 7.4 2.0 14.9 3.1
8.6 -0.1 -3.1
9.4
5.2 0.7
7.9
5.3
1.7
1.9
1.4
8.9
6.1
3.5
9.4
6.4
8.9 4.6
5.1
9.4 12.9
2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95
Corporate Profits After-Tax with Capital Consumption and Inventory Valuation Adjustments.
Second quarter data are final estimates.
225.8
258.1
261.5
255.6
261.6
272.4
266.6
238.6
283.8
282.8
301.3
323.6
342.4
324.1
344.8
347.4
344.7
349.8
360.6
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
January 2,1996
Corporate Profits and Net Cash Flow
(Billions of Dollars)
P e r io d
Corporate
Profits(1)
1991: 1
2
3
4
1992: 1
2
3
4
1993: 1
2
3
4
1994: 1
2
3
4
1995: 1
2
3
After-Tax
ProfitsO)
Capital
Dividends Consumption
Inventory
Capital
Valuation Consumption
Adjustment
Adjustment
385.4
391.5
389.6
394.7
258.1
261.5
255.6
261.6
158.0
159.4
161.6
160.9
380.7
382.4
384.1
386.1
10.4
412.1
412.6
363.2
432.5
272.4
266.6
238.6
283.8
161.0
166.8
174.4
182.1
388.6
391.3
410.4
396.8
442.5
473.1
493.5
533.9
282.8
301.3
323.6
342.4
188.2
190.7
193.2
194.6
508.2
546.4
556.0
560.3
324.1
344.8
347.4
344.7
569.7
581.1
NA
349.8
360.6
NA
Net
Cash Flow
13.7
18.9
22.5
22.4
470.5
472.4
476.7
487.6
-4.0
-16.6
-7.3
19.0
15.8
10.9
16.9
504.0
507.9
481.8
496.5
402.3
404.8
413.3
411.1
-11.2
-10.0
3.0
-6.5
21.0
26.5
31.7
38.8
508.0
525.4
540.6
565.5
196.3
202.5
207.9
213.9
432.2
425.9
432.6
438.0
-12.3
-14.1
-19.6
-32.1
37.0
37.4
37.5
38.8
572.2
582.3
591.7
600.9
217.1
219.9
223.7
445.3
454.7
461.0
-39.0
-28.2
-7.4
38.1
35.2
35.4
616.9
623.7
NA
12.1
1.4
-0.8
2.1
(1) Profits data includes the Inventory Valuation Adjustment and Capital Consumption Adjustment.
The latter is the excess of depreciation allowances over Capital Consumption.
Net Cash Flow equals After-Tax Corporate Profits less Dividends, less the Inventory Valuation Adjustment, plus Capital Consumption.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis
24
Government Deficit( - ) /Surplus(+ )
Seasonally Adjusted
Billions of Dollars
Billions of Dollars
National income accounts basis
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Federal Government Debt
(Billions of Dollars)
Seasonally Adjusted End of Month Totals
Period
Gross
Federal Debt
Federal Debt held
by Agencies
and Trusts
Net
Federal Debt
1992: March
June
September
December
3884.6
3984.8
4078.7
4157.2
980.3
998.0
1019.4
1036.8
2905.2
2989.9
3059.5
3116.5
273.1
275.7
299.7
294.9
2646.7
2723.9
2775.2
2835.9
..-505.8
532.0
538.9
545.4
1993: March
June
September
December
4237.1
4351.4
4426.9
4512.2
1061.6
1089.4
1119.9
1140.6
3175.8
3266.0
3307.0
3367.4
311.4
326.5
329.0
336.1
2877.6
2950.0
2993.9
3042.4
562.0
570.7
595.2
618.0
1994: March
4585.2
4644.5
4709.1
4774.7
1162,5
1191.9
1216.2
1242.9
3422.8
3456.8
3492.5
3527.7
349.4
355.6
358.7
365.9
3077.1
3099.8
3139.5
3162.1
629.6
636.7
659.9
682.9
4875.1
4949.7
4991.3
1277 8
1304.8
1323.9
3598.2
3649.2
3666.6
376.6
386.6
377.7
3221.5
3256.8
3292.0
726.0
788.7
853.4
June
September
December
1995: March
June
September
Federal Debt held Federal Debt held
by Federal
by Private
Reserve Banks
Investors
Federal Debt held
by Foreign
Investors
Columns may not add because each component is seasonally adjusted separately. Gross federal debt equals debt held by agencies and trusts plus net federal debt.
Net federal debt equals debt held by Federal Reserve banks plus debt held by private investors (which includes debt held by foreign investors).
Sources: Orginal data may be found in the TREASURY BULLETIN and also in the FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN; seasonally adjusted series prepared by this Bank.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
25
Government Budgets
(Billions of Dollars; National Income Account Basis)
Federal
Period
1991: 1
2
3
4
1992: 1
2
3
4
1993: 1
2
3
4
1994: 1
2
3
4
1995: 1
2
3
Receipts
1120.1
1121.8
1132.5
1140.5
1155.7
1171.0
1166.5
1219.9
1212 7
1263.7
1272.7
1313.6
1337.4
1380.7
1388.8
1408.8
1441.0
1475.5
NA
Expenditures
1264.5
1329.4
1346.0
1386.3
1435.6
1455.8
1460.4
1492.0
1496.2
1500.6
1497.6
1533.7
1513.7
1525.9
1542.8
1569.9
1589.6
1605.1
1615.0
Federal. State and Local
Surplus/
Defiçit(-)
-144.4
-207.6
-213.6
-245.8
-97Q
Q
C-f <7**7
Period
1991 1
2
3
4
1992: 1
2
3
4
1993: 1
2
3
4
1994: 1
2
3
4
1995: 1
2
3
-284.8
-293.9
-272.1
-283.5
-237.0
-224.9
-220.1
-176.2
-145.1
-154.0
-161.1
-148.6
-129.6
NA
Expenditures
1868.4
1937.4
1964.2
2009.4
2073.5
2095.8
2110.5
2147.9
2162,9
2176.7
2181.9
2221.0
2217.6
2240.1
2268.9
2303.4
2331.7
2357.9
NA
Receipts
1734.0
1744.7
1768.5
1788.7
1813,5
1836.9
1837.0
1908.8
1901.0
1965.1
1980.9
2035.4
2066.5
2121.9
2138.8
2171.1
2211.2
2251.6
NA
Surplus/
Qeficit(-)
-134.4
-192.8
-195.8
-220.7
-260.0
-258.9
-273.5
-239.1
-261.9
-211.6
-201.0
-185.6
-151.1
-118.1
-130.1
-132.3
-120.4
-106.2
NA
Grants-in-Aid(l)
144.3
151.7
154.7
162.6
164.6
172.8
174.6
176.6
176.7
182.9
187.8
197.0
190.0
194.4
200.3
205.5
211.0
215.7
220.7
(1) Federal Grants-in-Aid to state and local government are part of federal expenditures and state and local receipts, but are netted out in computing total government measures.
Federal Budgets
Fiscal Years
(Billions of Dollars; Unified Budget Basis)
Estimate
Total Budget
Receipts
Outlays
Surplus or Deficit(-)
1995
$1,357
1.518
-161
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
$1,257.7
1.460.9
-203.2
$1,153.5
1.408.7
-255.1
$1,090.5
1.380.9
-290.4
$1,054.3
1.323.4
-269.2
$1,031.3
1.252.7
-221.4
Calendar Years
(Billions of Dollars; National Income Account Basis)
National Income Account
Budget
Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or Deficit(-)
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
$1,379.0
1.538.1
-159.1
$1,265.7
1.507.0
-241.4
$1,178.3
1.460.9
-282.7
$1,128.7
1.331.6
-202.9
$1,111.4
1.274.9
-163.5
Note: Fiscal years refer to the budget year which runs from October 1 through September 30.
Total budget outlays include federal entities that are off-budget.
Estimate is Congressional Budget Office baseline projection from THE ECONOMIC & BUDGET OUTLOOK: UPDATE (August 1995).
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
26
Federal Government Receipts
(Compound Annual R a te s o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-90
-2.8
-0.6
-0.2
0.8
X.2
1.9
24
1.9
3,7
3.1
4,4
4.2
4,9
5.1
5,6
5.4
5,5
5.7
5.9
4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
1.6
1.1
2.0
2.2
2.9
3.3
2.6
4.6
3.8
5.1
4.9
5.6
5.7
6.3
6.0
6.0
6.2
6.4
0.6
2.2
2.4
3.2
3.6
2.7
5.0
4.1
5.5
5.2
6.0
6.1
6.6
6.3
6.3
6.5
6.7
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93
Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95
1.115.8
1,120.1
1.121.8
3.9
3.4
4.0
4.4
3.2
5.7
4.6
6.1
5.8
6.5
6.6
7.2
6.8
6.7
6.9
7.1
2.9
4.1
4.6
3.0
6.1
4.7
6.5
6.0
6.8
6.9
7.5
7.0
6.9
7.1
7.3
1,132.5
1.140.5
54
5.4
3.1
7.0
5.0
7.1
6.5
7.3
7.3
7.9
74
7.3
7.5
7.6
3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
5.4
1.9
7.5
4.9
7.4
6.6
7.6
76
8.2
7.6
7.5
7.6
7.8
-1.5
8.5
4.8
7.9
6.9
8.0
7.9
8.6
7.9
7.7
7.8
8.0
19.6
8.1
11.3
9.1
10.0
9.5
10.1
9.1
8.7
8.8
8.9
-2.3
7,3
5.8
7.7
7.6
8.6
7.7
7,5
7.7
7,9
17.9
10.1
11.2
10.3
10.9
9.5
8.9
9.0
9.1
2.9
8.1
7.9
9.3
7.8
7.5
7.8
8.1
13.5
10.4 7.4
11.5 10.5
9.1
7.7
8.5 7.2
8.6
7.7
8.8 8.1
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93
13.6
7.8
7.2
7.7
8.2
*
2.4
4.1
5.9
6.9
5*9
7.7
8.4
1,155.7
1,171.0
1,166.5
1,219.9
1,212.7
1,263.7
1,272.7
1,313.6
1,337.4
1.380.7
1,388.8
1,408.8
9.5
1,441.0
1,475.5
9.7 9.9
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
1-95
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
January 2 ,1996
Second quarter data are final estimates.
Federal Government Expenditures
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
2-91 3-91 4-91
5.7
3.5
5.3
4.2
3.6
2.9
3.8
2.7
2.7
2.9
3.3
3.5
3.5
3.4
1.3
5.0
3.7
3.1
2.3
3.5
2.3
2.4
2.6
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.2
8.9
5.0
1.1
3.7
1.2
1.2
2.5
0.5 0.2
4.0
2.8
3.4
2.4
1.2
1.2
2.5
1.5
1.6
2,8
1.9 2 1
3.3
2.6
2.8
3.4 2.9
3.5
3.0
3.2
3.4 2.9 3.1
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93
!' •
5.1
8.7 12.5
10.8 13.8 15.0
9.5 11.0 10.3
7.8 8.5 7.2
8.0
8.6
7.6
7.3 6.3
7,0
6.4
5.4
6.2
4,5
5.4
5.5
5.2
6.0
5.9
4.0
4.8
4,8
3.9
4.7
4.7
4,0
4.7 4.7
4.2
4.8
4.9
4.3
4.9
4.9
4.3
4.8
4.8
4.2
4.7
4.7
2-91 3-91 4-91
Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
\<6
Terminal
Quarter
4-90 1-91
1-91 -12.4
2-91
3.5 22.2
3-91
4,0 13.3
4-91
6.1 13.0
1-92
7.8 13.5
2-92
7.5 11.9
3-92
6.6 10.1
4-92
6.8 9.9
8.8
1-93
62
5.7
7.9
2-93
5,1
7.0
3-93
5.5
7.3
4-93
4.6 6.2
1-94
2-94
4.5
6.0
3-94
4.5 ■5.8
4-94
4.7
5.9
1-95
4.7
5.9
2-95
4.7
5.8
5.6
3-95
4.6
4-90 1-91
-0.8
4.5
1.2
1.7
2.2
3.1
3.3
3.4
3.3
2-93
Third quarter data are advance estimates.
10.0
2.2 -5.1
2.5 -1.0 3.3
3.0 0.8 3.9
4.5
3.8
2.4
5.0
7.2
5.9
4,1
2.9
5.0
5.6
6.2
5.1
4.0
5.4
4.5
3.1
4.8
5.2
4.7
3.8
3.8 3.0 4,4
4.6
3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
Annual Rates
1-95 2-95
4.0
3.2 2.5
1-95 2-95
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
January 2, 1996
27
1.264.5
1,329.4
1,346.0
1,386.3
1,435.6
1,455.8
1,460.4
1,492.0
1,496.2
1,500.6
1.497.6
1,533.7
1,513.7
1,525.9
1,542.8
1,569.9
1,589.6
1,605.1
1,615.0
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Post Office Box 442
St. Louis, Missouri 63166
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