Full text of National Economic Trends : January 1992
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January 1992 o N ational Economic Trends GDP Is Now the Primary Measure of U.S. Production With the release of com prehensive revisions to the national incom e and product accounts, the U .S. Department o f Com m erce shifted to the use of gross dom estic product (GDP), rather than gross national product (GNP), as the primary measure of the country’s production o f goods and services. Although different in concept, these two measures show essentially the same pattern of past cyclical trend m ovem ents. The GDP o f a country includes the goods and services produced within the geographical boundaries o f that country. GNP, on the other hand, includes the goods and services produced by a country’s residents regardless o f their location. The major com ponents o f GDP are the same as those for GNP, except for net exports. The GDP measure includes incom e payments to foreigners and excludes incom e receipts by U .S. residents from abroad; GNP is just the opposite. The Com m erce Department shifted its empha sis to GDP for a number o f reasons. One is that, conceptually, GDP is more consistent with other in dicators of U .S. econom ic performance such as em ployment, industrial production and retail sales. Second, G DP is the primary measure o f production in most o f the rest o f the world. Finally, this shift in emphasis reflects measurement considerations. Incom e payments to foreigners and receipts from foreigners, particularly the latter, are difficult to estimate in a tim ely manner. Whether GDP is greater or less than GNP de pends m ainly on whether there is more or less for eign investm ent in a country than that country has invested abroad. For the United States and other major industrial countries, GDP tends to be less than GNP, although the differences are small. For the United States, the largest percentage difference since 1959 w as 1.3 percent in 1979. In developing countries like M exico and Chile, GDP is larger than GNP by 5 percent or more. GDP vs. GNP in Selected Countries Country (Year) United States (1990) C anada(1990) Germany (1990) GDP/GNP 99.8% 103.7 98.9 Italy (1990) 101.2 Japan(1989) 99.3 Switzerland (1990) 95.8 United Kingdom (1990) 99.3 — Keith M. Carlson $ B A N M I U Y R # 0 7 R A E S C H E L RYAN Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions ot the Federal Reserve System. National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research and Public Information Division. Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing Research and Public Information, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or by calling (314) 444-8809. Consum er Price Index - All Urban C onsum ers Percent Change From Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted Percent Percent Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis C o n s u m e r P r i c e In de x (Compounded Annua] Rates o f Change) Terminal Ho nth 1982-84=100 I nitial Month <*-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 129.2 5-90 1.9 6-90 <*.7 7.7 7-90 <♦.7 6.2 130.0 4.7 130.5 8-90 6.2 7.6 7.6 10.6 9-90 6.8 8.1 8.2 10.1 9.5 131.6 10-90 6.9 8.0 8.1 9.2 8.5 7.5 11-90 6.5 7.2 7.2 7.8 6.9 5.6 3.7 12-90 6.1 6.7 6.6 6.9 6.0 4.9 3.7 3.6 1-91 6.0 6.6 6.4 6.7 5.9 5.1 4.3 4.6 5.5 2-91 5.7 6.1 5.9 6.1 5.4 4.6 3.9 3.9 4.1 2.7 3-91 5.1 5.4 5.2 5.2 4.5 3.7 2.9 2.7 2.4 0.9 <*-91 4.9 5.2 4.9 4.9 4.2 3.5 2.9 2.7 2.5 1.5 0.9 2.7 5-91 <*.8 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.2 3.5 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.0 1.8 3.2 3.6 6-91 <4.6 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.0 3.4 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.1 2.0 3.0 3.1 2.7 7-91 <*.5 4.7 4.5 4.4 3.9 3.4 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.2 2.1 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.7 132.6 133.4 133.8 134.2 134.8 135.1 135.0 -0.9 135.3 135.7 136.0 136.3 8-91 4.4 4.6 4.3 4.3 3.8 3.3 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.3 2.2 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.7 9-91 4.4 4.6 4.3 4.3 3.9 3.4 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.6 2.6 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.6 4.5 10-91 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.) 3.6 3.2 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 0.9 11-91 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.2 3.8 3.4 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.7 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.6 3.1 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 136.6 137.1 137.2 5.4 137.8 9-91 10-91 The CPI is for all urban considers. P r e pared by Federal R e s e r v e Bank of St. Louis Decenber 13, 1991 2 Cons um er Price Index ~ Food (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terminal Month Initial Honth 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 1982-84=100 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 131.2 5-90 0.0 6-90 4.2 7-90 5.0 7.5 6.5 8-90 4.6 6.2 5.1 3.7 132.1 8.5 132.8 133.2 133.6 9-90 4.4 5.6 4.6 3.7 3.7 10-90 4.5 5.4 4.6 4.0 4.1 4.6 11-90 4.6 5.4 4.8 4.4 4.6 5.0 5.5 12-90 4.3 4.9 4.3 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.6 1.8 1-91 4.6 5.2 4.7 4.4 4.6 4.8 4.9 4.5 7.4 2-91 3.9 4.3 3.8 3.4 3.3 3.3 2.9 2.1 2.2 -2.6 3-91 3.7 4.1 3.7 3.3 3.2 3.2 2.9 2.2 2.4 0.0 2.7 4-91 4.2 4.6 4.2 3.9 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.6 4.1 3.0 5.9 9.2 5-91 3.9 4.2 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.0 3.2 2.2 3.9 4.5 0.0 6-91 4.0 4.4 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.7 3.0 4.5 5.1 3.1 6.3 7-91 3.3 3.5 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.1 2.2 1.3 2.1 2.0 -0.3 -0.4 -6.8 8-91 2.8 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.4 0.6 1.2 0.9 -1.1 -1.5 -5.1 -3.5 9-91 2.7 2.9 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.4 0.7 1.1 0.9 -0.7 -0.9 -3.2 -1.3 0.9 10-91 2.5 2.7 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.2 0.5 0.9 0.6 -0.7 -0.9 -2.6 -1.2 0.0 -0.9 11-91 2.8 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.2 1.6 1.4 0.4 0.4 -0.7 0.9 2.4 3.1 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7~91 8-91 134.1 134.7 134.9 135.7 135.4 135.7 136.7 136.7 137.4 136.6 136.2 136.3 136.2 137.0 7.3 9-91 10-91 Pr e p a r e d by Federal R eserve Bank of St. Louis December 13, 1991 Consumer Price Index - Energy (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) T e r minal Mo n t h Initial Mon t h 4-90 5-90 -3.7 6-90 1.9 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 1982-84=100 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 96.5 7.7 97.1 7-90 0.0 1.9 -3.6 8-90 13.6 20.0 26.7 66.5 9-90 25.5 34.0 44.2 76.4 86.8 10-90 31.3 39.6 49.0 72.3 75.3 64.4 96.8 101.0 106.4 110.9 11-90 27.2 33.3 39.1 52.4 48.0 31.7 5.5 12-90 22.6 26.9 30.4 38.6 32.4 18.0 0.0 1-91 16.0 18.7 20.4 24.9 18.0 2-91 8.9 10.4 10.7 12.9 5.8 -5.5 -17.8 -24.3 -32.4 -38.5 3-91 5.0 5.9 5.7 6.9 0.3 -9.5 -19.7 -25.0 -30.7 -33.1 -27.1 -9.3 -17.9 -21.9 -25.6 -25.6 -18.1 5.2 111.4 -5.3 110.9 -9.4 -16.0 -25.6 108.2 103.9 101.2 4-91 3.8 4.5 4.2 5.1 -0.7 5-91 4.9 5.6 5.4 6.4 1.2 -6.3 -13.5 -16.3 -18.4 -16.5 -7.5 6-91 3.6 4.2 3.9 4.6 -0.1 -6.8 -13.2 -15.6 -17.2 -15.4 -8.4 -1.2 2.4 -11.2 7-91 3.0 3.5 3.2 3.8 -0.5 -6.6 -12.3 -14.3 -15.5 -13.7 -7.7 -2.1 0.0 -8.0 -4.7 8-91 2.7 3.1 2.8 3.3 -0.7 -6.2 -11.4 -13.1 -14.0 -12.2 -6.8 -2.1 -0.6 -6.1 -3.5 -2.4 9-91 3.3 3.7 3.4 4.0 0.3 -4.8 -9.4 -10.8 -11.4 -9.4 -4.3 0.2 1.9 -1.8 1.6 4.9 12.6 10-91 3.2 3.6 3.4 3.9 0.4 -4.3 -8.5 -9.7 -10.1 -8.2 -3.4 0.5 2.0 -0.9 1.8 4.0 7.4 2.4 ¿1-91 3.6 4.0 3.8 4.2 1.0 -3.3 -7.2 -8.2 -8.4 -6.5 -2.0 1.6 3.1 0.8 3.4 5.5 8.2 6.1 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 100.5 -8.0 4.2 18.1 101.9 100.9 100.5 100.3 101.3 101.5 9.9 102.3 9-91 10-91 P r e p a r e d by F ederal R e s e r v e Bank of St. Louis D e c ember 13, 1991 3 Producer Price Index - F inished Goods Percent Change From Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted Percent Percent 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Prod uc er Price Index - Fi nished Goods (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terminal Month Initial Month <♦-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 1982 = 100 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 117.6 5-90 4.2 6-90 2.1 0.0 7-90 2.8 2.1 117.6 118.0 4.2 119.3 8-90 5.5 5.9 9.0 14.1 9-90 7.5 8.4 11.3 15.1 16.2 10-90 8.9 9.9 12.5 15.4 16.1 16.0 11-90 8.3 9.0 10.9 12.7 12.3 10.4 5.0 12-90 6.6 6.9 8.2 9.0 7.7 5.1 0.0 -4.8 120.8 122.3 122.8 122.3 122.4 1-91 6.0 6.2 7.1 7.6 6.4 4.0 0.3 -1.9 1.0 2-91 4.4 4.4 5.0 5.1 3.7 1.4 -1.9 -4.2 -3.9 -8.5 121.5 3-91 3.7 3.7 4.1 4.1 2.7 0.7 -2.1 -3.9 -3.5 -5.7 -2.9 4-91 3.5 3.4 3.8 3.7 2.5 0.7 -1.6 -2.9 -2.4 -3.5 -1.0 1.0 5-91 3.7 3.7 4.0 4.0 2.9 1.4 -0.6 -1.5 -0.8 -1.2 1.3 3.5 6.1 6-91 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.1 2.1 0.7 -1.1 -1.9 -1.5 -1.9 -0.2 0.7 0.5 -4.8 7-91 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.6 1.6 0.3 -1.3 -2.1 -1.7 -2.1 -0.8 -0.2 -0.7 -3.9 -2.9 8-91 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.7 1.8 0.5 -0.9 -1.5 -1.1 -1.4 -0.2 0.4 0.2 -1.6 0.0 3.0 9-91 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.5 1.7 0.6 -0.7 -1.3 -0.9 -1.1 0.0 0.5 0.4 -1.0 0.3 2.0 1.0 10-91 2.9 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.2 1.1 0.0 -0.4 0.0 -0.1 1.0 1.6 1.7 0.8 2.2 4.0 4.5 8.2 11-91 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.1 1.2 0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.1 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.0 2.2 3.5 3.7 5.0 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 <»-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 4 121.2 121.3 121.9 121.4 121.1 121.4 121.5 122.3 2.0 122.5 9-91 10-91 Pr e p a r e d by Federal Res e r v e Bank of St. Louis De c ember 12, 1991 Civilian E m ploym ent and U nem p loym en t Rate Seasonally Adjusted Millions of Persons Percent 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Civilian Employment (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Terainal Mo n t h T housands of Persons Initial Month 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 IP-91 5-90 1.9 6-90 0.7 -0.4 118,277 7-90 -0.7 -2.0 -3.5 8-90 -1.0 -2.0 -2.7 -1.9 9-90 -0.4 -1.0 -1.2 0.0 2.0 10-90 -0.6 -1.1 -1.3 -0.5 0.2 -1.5 11-90 -1.0 -1.5 -1.7 -1.3 -1.0 -2.5 -3.5 12-90 -0.7 -1.0 -1.1 -0.6 -0.3 -1.0 -0.8 1.9 1-91 -1.3 -1.7 -1.9 -1.6 -1.6 -2.4 -2.7 -2.3 2-91 -1.2 -1.5 -1.7 -1.4 -1.3 -2.0 -2.1 -1.6 -3.3 0.0 3-91 -1.2 -1.5 -1.7 -1.4 -1.4 -1.9 -2.0 -1.6 -2.8 -0.9 4-91 -0.6 -0.8 -0.9 -0.5 -0.4 -0.7 -0.6 0.0 -0.4 1.6 2.5 6.8 5-91 -1.2 -1.4 -1.5 -1.3 -1.2 -1.6 -1.7 -1.3 -2.0 -0.8 -1.1 -0.8 -7.9 6-91 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -0.9 -0.8 -1.1 -1.1 -0.7 -1.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.4 -2.6 3.1 7-91 -0.9 -1.1 -1.2 -1.0 -0.9 -1.2 -1.2 -0.9 -1.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 -2.3 0.6 -1.8 8-91 -1.1 -1.3 -1.3 -1.1 -1.1 -1.4 -1.3 -1.1 -1.5 -0.7 -0.9 -0.7 -2.5 -0.6 -2.4 -3.0 9-91 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.2 -0.5 0.3 0.4 0.7 -0.5 1.5 1.0 2.4 8.0 10-91 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.7 -0.7 -0.4 -0.6 0.1 0.1 0.3 -0.7 0.8 0.2 0.9 2.9 -2.0 11-91 -0.7 -0.9 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -0.5 -0.8 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.9 0.3 -0.3 0.1 1.2 -2.1 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 118,237 117,882 117,690 117,883 117,733 117,386 117,574 116,922 -6.5 116,918 116,754 -1.7 117,398 116,591 116,884 116,712 116,416 117,165 116,967 -2.1 116,758 9-91 10-91 Pr e p a r e d by F ederal Res e r v e Bank of St. Louis D e c ember 6, 1991 Payroll E m ploym ent Seasonally Adjusted Millions of Persons Millions of Persons 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Payroll Employment (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Honth 4-90 5-90 5-90 4.1 6-90 2.8 1.4 6-90 7-90 8-90 Initial Honth Persons 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 T h ousands of 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 ]0-91 110,304 110,435 7-90 1.2 -0.2 -1.8 8-90 0.6 -0.5 -1.5 -1.2 9-90 0.4 -0.5 -1.2 -0.8 -0.5 10-90 0.1 -0.7 -1.2 -1.0 -1.0 11-90 -0.3 -1.0 -1.5 -1.4 -1.4 -1.9 -2.4 12-90 -0.4 -1.1 -1.5 -1.4 -1.5 -1.8 -2.0 -1.5 1-91 -0.6 -1.2 -1.6 -1.5 -1.6 -1.9 -2.0 -1.9 -2.2 2-91 -0.8 -1.4 -1.7 -1.7 -1.8 -2.1 -2.2 -2.2 -2.5 -2.8 3-91 -1.0 -1.5 -1.8 -1.9 -1.9 -2.2 -2.3 -2.3 -2.6 -2.8 -2.8 4-91 -1.1 -1.5 -1.8 -1.8 -1.9 -2.1 -2.3 -2.2 -2.4 -2.5 -2.3 -1.8 110,269 110,160 110,113 -1.4 109,982 109,761 109,621 109,418 109,160 108,902 1 08,736 5-91 -0.9 -1.3 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 -1.6 -1.4 -1.0 -0.1 1.7 6-91 -0.8 -1.2 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.5 -1.5 -1.4 -1.3 -1.2 -0.8 -0.1 0.8 0.0 7-91 -0.8 -1.1 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.4 -1.4 -1.2 -1.2 -1.0 -0.7 -0.1 0.5 -0.2 -0.3 8-91 -0.7 -1.0 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 -0.9 -0.7 -0.3 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.5 1.2 9-91 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 -0.9 -0.9 -1.0 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.7 1.1 10-91 -0.5 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -0.8 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.0 11-91 -0.6 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -0.8 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.5 -1.3 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 1 08,887 1 08,885 1 08,859 108,971 1.1 109,066 109,070 -2.6 108,829 Pr e p a r e d by F ederal R e s e r v e Bank of St. Louis December 6, 1991 6 Service-Producing Employment (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Month 5-90 5.7 6-90 4.1 2.6 7-90 2.3 0.6 1.6 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 0.3 85,342 85,242 -0.8 -0.3 0.2 85,223 0.7 85,271 9-90 1.4 0.4 -0.3 1.2 0.3 -0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 11-90 1.0 0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 0.7 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.5 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.6 3-91 0.3 -0.2 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 -1.5 -1.3 4-91 0.2 -0.3 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -1.1 -1.4 -1.3 -1.2 5-91 0.3 -0.1 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -0.7 -0.4 0.1 1.4 6-91 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 0.3 1.1 0.8 7-91 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.6 0.1 -0.5 8-91 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.4 1.2 9-91 0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.5 1-91 2-91 9-91 10-91 -1.4 10-90 12-90 8-91 85,163 5-90 8-90 Thousands of Persons Initial Month 4-90 85,277 85,280 85,246 85,237 85,121 85,025 84,942 85,040 85,093 85,061 85,145 1.8 85,269 10-91 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.1 11-91 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.4 -0.2 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 85,347 -1.5 85,236 9-91 10-91 P r e p a r e d by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis D e c ember 6, 1991 Goods-Producing Employment (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terminal Month 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 5-90 -1.1 6-90 -1.7 -2.3 7-90 -2.2 -2.7 -3.1 8-90 -2.7 -3.2 -3.7 -4.2 8-90 Initial Mo n t h Persons 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 Thousands of 3-91 4-V1 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 25,141 25,093 25,027 24,937 9-90 -3.1 -3.5 -3.9 -4.4 -4.5 10-90 -3.6 -4.1 -4.6 -5.0 -5.5 -6.4 11-90 -4.6 -5.2 -5.8 -6.4 -7.1 -8.4 -10.4 12-90 -4.7 -5.2 -5.6 -6.1 -6.6 -7.3 -7.8 -5.1 1-91 -5.2 -5.7 -6.1 -6.6 -7.1 -7.8 -8.2 -7.1 -9.1 2-91 -5.3 -5.8 -6.2 -6.7 -7.1 -7.6 -7.9 -7.0 -8.0 -6.8 3-91 -5.6 -6.0 -6.4 -6.8 -7.2 -7.6 -7.9 -7.2 -7.9 -7.3 -7.8 4-91 -5.4 -5.8 -6.2 -6.5 -6.8 -7.1 -7.2 -6.6 -7.0 -6.2 -6.0 -4.1 5-91 -4.8 -5.1 -5.4 -5.6 -5.8 -5.9 -5.9 -5.1 -5.1 -4.1 -3.2 -0.8 2.7 24,842 24,705 24,481 24,375 24,181 24,039 23,877 23,794 23,847 6-91 -4.7 -5.0 -5.2 -5.4 -5.5 -5.6 -5.5 -4.8 -4.7 -3.8 -3.1 -1.4 -0.1 -2.7 7-91 -4.4 -4.6 -4.8 -4.9 -5.0 -5.0 -4.9 -4.2 -4.0 -3.1 -2.4 -1.0 0.1 -1.2 0.3 8-91 -4.0 -4.2 -4.3 -4.4 -4.5 -4.5 -4.3 -3.6 -3.4 -2.5 -1.8 -0.5 0.4 -0.4 0.9 1.4 9-91 -3.9 -4.0 -4.2 -4.2 -4.2 -4.2 -4.0 -3.3 -3.1 -2.4 -1.7 -0.7 0.0 -0.6 0.1 0.0 -1.5 10-91 -3.9 -4.0 -4.1 -4.2 -4.2 -4.2 -4.0 -3.4 -3.2 -2.5 -2.0 -1.1 -0.6 -1.2 -0.9 -1.3 -2.6 -3.7 11-91 -4.0 -4.1 -4.3 -4.3 -4.3 -4.3 -4.2 -3.6 -3.5 -2.9 -2.5 -1.8 -1.4 -2.1 -2.0 -2.6 -3.9 -5.0 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 23,792 23,798 23,826 23,797 23,723 -6.4 23,593 P r e p a r e d by Federal R eserve Bank of St. Louis December 6, 1991 7 Change in th e E m ploym ent Cost Index and Its C om ponents Percent Change From Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted Percent Percent 8 \ i I / 1 L \ ^ 1985 /N /" * * * \ \ * / / N ' ' ..... ‘ ....•v i 1 ................... s s *A \ V* Wages and iSalaries \ > ✓ .... \ / y Total Compensation s N \ / \ \ 1 1 1 I ^ / \ Benefits N / / 8 * 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 Total compensation is the sum of benefits and wages and salaries for private industry workers. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Em pl oy me nt Cost Index - Total Co mp en sa ti on (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terminal Quarter Initial Quarter 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 1-87 3.1 2-87 3.1 3.1 3-87 3.4 3.6 4.0 4-87 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.5 1-88 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.4 5.2 2-83 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.6 5.2 5.2 3-88 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.7 4.5 3.8 4-88 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.4 5.1 1-89 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.6 4.3 4.6 4-88 1-89 2-89 J une 1989 = 100 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 90.9 91.6 92.5 93.3 94.5 95.7 96.6 97.8 4.2 98.8 2-89 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.5 4.9 3-89 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.9 4.8 5.1 5.3 4-89 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.9 4.9 4.4 1-90 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.6 2-90 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.3 5.1 3-90 4.5 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.8 5.0 4.7 4.3 4-90 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.4 4.0 3.8 4.6 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.6 100.0 101.3 102.4 103.8 105.1 106.2 107.2 1-91 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 2-91 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.7 4.9 3-91 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.4 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 108.4 109.7 110.9 Data are for the last raoi<th of quarter. P r e p a r e d by F ederal Res e r v e Bank of St. Louis O c t o b e r 29, 1991 8 Industrial P roduction Seasonally Adjusted 1987=100 1987=100 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 1986 1985 1987 1988 1990 1989 1991 Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Industrial Production (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terminal Month Initial Month 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 1987 = 100 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 5-90 6.8 6-90 7.4 8.0 7-90 6.0 5.6 3.3 8-90 4.8 4.1 2.2 1.1 9-90 4.0 3.3 1.8 1.1 1.1 10-90 2.0 1.1 -0.5 -1.8 -3.2 -7.3 109.9 11-90 -0.8 -2.0 -3.9 -5.6 -7.7 -11.8 -16.1 108.3 12-90 -2.2 -3.4 -5.2 -6.8 -8.7 -11.7 -13.9 -11.5 1-91 -2.7 -3.8 -5.4 -6.8 -8.3 -10.5 -11.5 -9.1 -6.5 2-91 -3.4 -4.5 -5.9 -7.2 -8.5 -10.3 -11.0 -9.3 -8.1 -9.7 3-91 -3.8 -4.8 -6.1 -7.2 -8.4 -8.9 -8.0 -8.7 -7.7 109.4 110.1 110.4 110.5 110.6 -9.9 -10.4 107.2 106.6 105.7 105.0 4-91 -3.0 -3.9 -5.0 -5.9 -6.7 -7.8 -7.8 -6.1 -4.7 -4.1 -1.1 5.9 5-91 -2.0 -2.7 -3.7 -4.3 -4.9 -5.6 -5.4 -3.5 -1.8 -0.6 2.7 8.3 10.7 6-91 -1.2 -1.8 -2.5 -3.1 -3.5 -4.0 -3.5 -1.6 0.2 1.6 4.6 9.1 10.7 10.6 7-91 -0.5 -1.0 -1.7 -2.1 -2.4 -2.7 -2.2 -0.3 1.4 2.8 5.5 9.1 10.2 10.0 9.3 8-91 -0.6 -1.0 -1.6 -2.0 -2.3 -2.6 -2.1 -0.4 1.1 2.3 4.4 7.0 7.3 6.2 4.0 -1.1 9-91 -0.4 -0.8 -1.4 -1.7 -1.9 -2.2 -1.7 -0.1 1.2 2.3 4.1 6.2 6.3 5.2 3.4 0.6 2.2 10-91 -0.4 -0.8 -1.3 -1.6 -1.8 -2.0 -1.5 -0.1 1.1 2.0 3.6 5.3 5.2 4.1 2.5 0.4 1.1 0.0 11-91 -0.6 -1.0 -1.5 -1.8 -2.0 -2.2 -1.8 -0.5 0.6 1.4 2.7 4.0 3.8 2.6 1.1 -0.8 -0.7 -2.2 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 105.5 106.4 107.3 108.1 108.0 108.2 108.2 -4.3 107.8 P r e p a r e d by F ederal R eserve Bank of St. Louis Decenber 16, 1991 P ersonal Incom e in 1982 Dollars Seasonally Adjusted Trillions of Dollars Trillions of Dollars 3.6 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.4 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1991 1990 The personal consumption expenditures deflator is used to calculate real personal income Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Disposable Personal I n co me i n 1982 D o l l a r s (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terminal Month Initial Month 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 Bi l lions of Dollars Annual Rates 9-91 2,901.0 4-90 -3.1 5-90 -1.7 -0.2 6-90 -0.2 1.3 2.8 7-90 0.2 1.3 2.1 1.5 8-90 -1.0 -0.4 -0.5 -2.1 -5.5 9-90 -1.5 -1.2 -1.4 -2.8 -4.8 -4.1 10-90 -2.6 -2.6 -3.0 -4.4 -6.3 -6.7 -9.2 11-90 -2.0 -1.8 -2.1 -3.0 -4.1 -3.7 -3.5 2.6 12-90 -1.2 -0.9 -1.0 -1.6 -2.2 -1.4 -0.5 4.2 1-91 -2.1 -2.0 -2.2 -2.9 -3.6 -3.2 -3.0 -0.8 -2.5 -10.2 2-91 -1.9 -1.7 -1.9 -2.5 -3.0 -2.6 -2.3 -0.5 -1.5 -5.0 0.5 3-91 -1.4 -1.2 -1.3 -1.7 -2.1 -1.6 -1.2 0.5 -0.1 -2.0 2.4 4.4 4-91 -1.4 -1.2 -1.3 -1.7 -2.0 -1.6 -1.2 0.2 -0.3 -1.8 1.1 1.5 -1.4 5-91 -0.9 -0.8 -0.8 -1.1 -1.4 -0.9 -0.5 0.8 0.5 -0.5 2.0 2.5 1.6 4.7 6-91 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.2 0.2 1.4 1.3 0.5 2.8 3.4 3.1 5.3 6.0 7-91 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -0.4 0.0 1.1 0.9 0.2 2.1 2.4 1.9 3.0 2.2 -1.4 8-91 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.1 0.2 1.2 1.1 0.5 2.1 2.4 2.0 2.9 2.3 0.5 2.5 9-91 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.1 0.6 2.0 2.3 1.9 2.6 2.1 0.8 1.9 1.3 10-91 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.1 0.6 1.9 2.1 1.8 2.3 1.8 0.8 1.5 1.0 0.8 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7 -91 8-91 9-91 2,900.4 2,907.1 . 2,910.6 2,896.8 O- 2 ,886.8 2 ,863.7 2,869.9 Y)^ 5.8 2 ,883.5 2,857.8 2,858.9 2,869.2 2,865.9 2,876.9 2,890.9 2,887.5 2,893.4 2,896.5 2,898.4 P r e p a r e d b y F ederal Res e r v e Bank of St. Louis O c t o b e r 30, 1991 10 R etail Sales Seasonally Adjusted Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars 165 145 125 105 85 Shaded area represents a period of business recession. The CPI is used to deflate retail sales data. Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Retail Sales in 1982-84 Do ll ar s (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terminal Mon t h I nitial Month <4-90 5-90 6-90 5-90 -5.3 6-90 -0.7 4.0 7-90 -1.1 1.0 -1.9 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 Millions of Dollars 115,126 115,505 115,324 8-90 -2.4 -1.4 -4.0 -6.0 9-90 -2.1 -1.3 -3.1 -3.7 -1.3 10-90 -2.8 -2.3 -3.8 -4.5 -3.7 -6.1 11-90 -2.4 -1.9 -3.1 -3.4 -2.5 -3.1 12-90 -5.2 -5.2 -6.7 -7.6 -8.0 -10.1 -12.1 -22.7 1-91 -6.9 -7.1 -8.5 -9.6 -10.3 -12.4 -14.4 -20.9 -19.0 2-91 -3.9 -3.8 -4.7 -5.1 -5.0 -5.7 -5.6 -7.4 1.4 26.8 3-91 -3.3 -3.0 -3.8 -4.0 -3.8 -4.2 -3.8 -4.7 2.2 14.8 3.9 4-91 -3.5 -3.4 -4.1 -4.3 -4.1 -4.5 -4.2 -5.0 0.0 7.2 -1.4 -6.4 5-91 -2.5 -2.3 -2.8 -2.9 -2.5 -2.7 -2.2 -2.6 2.1 8.1 2.5 1.8 10.8 6-91 -2.5 -2.3 -2.8 -2.9 -2.6 -2.7 -2.3 -2.6 1.2 5.8 1.1 0.1 3.6 -3.1 7-91 -2.3 -2.0 -2.5 -2.5 -2.2 -2.3 -1.9 -2.1 1.2 5.1 1.2 0.5 3.0 -0.7 8-91 -2.8 -2.6 -3.1 -3.2 -2.9 -3.1 -2.7 -3.0 -0.3 2.7 -0.8 -1.7 -0.5 -4.0 -4.4 -10.2 9-91 -2.6 -2.5 -2.9 -3.0 -2.7 -2.8 -2.5 -2.8 -0.3 2.3 -0.7 -1.5 -0.5 -3.1 -3.1 -5.5 -0.5 10-91 -2.5 -2.4 -2.8 -2.8 -2.6 -2.7 -2.4 -2.6 -0.3 2.0 -0.7 -1.4 -0.5 -2.6 -2.5 -3.9 -0.6 -0.6 11-91 -2.5 -2.3 -2.7 -2.8 -2.5 -2.6 -2.3 -2.5 -0.5 1.6 -0.9 -1.5 -0.7 -2.5 -2.4 -3.4 -1.0 -1.3 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 114,729 114,608 114,008 0.0 114,004 111,587 109,646 111,837 112,198 111,579 112,535 112,237 1.7 112,395 111,391 111,348 111,288 -1.9 111,110 Retail sales d 3ta deflat ed by CPI - U (1982 - 8 4 = 1 0 0 Ì . P r e p a r e d by F ederal Res e r v e Bank of St. Louis D e c e m b e r 12, 1991 11 Inventories Compared With. Monthly Sales Manufacturing and Trade Seasonally Adjusted 1.48 1.44 "I---- 1---- 1---- r -i-- 1-- .-- -- 1-- 1-- 1-- -- t-- r 1985 1986 1987 1---- 1---- r 1.44 1988 1990 1991 Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Business Inventories (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terminal Month Initial M onth 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 4-90 3.2 5-90 4.4 5.6 6-90 1.1 0.1 -5.1 7-90 2.9 2.8 1.5 8.5 8-90 3.8 4.0 3.5 8.1 7.6 9-90 3.8 3.9 3.5 6.5 5.5 3.4 10-90 3.9 4.0 3.7 6.0 5.2 4.0 4.7 11-90 4.0 4.1 3.9 5.8 5.1 4.3 4.8 4.9 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 M i l lions of Dollars 812,976 816,667 813,118 818,689 823,683 825,964 829,140 8 32,464 12-90 2.7 2.6 2.2 3.4 2.4 1.2 0.5 -1.6 -7.7 1-91 3.1 3.0 2.7 3.9 3.1 2.3 2.0 1.1 -0.7 6.7 2-91 2.3 2.3 1.9 2.8 2.0 1.1 0.7 -0.3 -2.0 0.9 3-91 1.1 0.9 0.4 1.1 0.2 -0.8 -1.5 -2.7 -4.6 -3.5 -8.2 -11.8 4-91 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.6 -0.3 -1.2 -1.9 -2.9 -4.4 -3.6 -6.8 826,941 8 31,445 -4.6 828,201 -7.9 8 19,615 -3.9 8 16,893 5-91 0.1 -0.1 -0.6 -0.2 -1.0 -1.9 -2.6 -3.6 -4.9 -4.4 -7.0 -7.7 -5.6 -7.3 6-91 -0.4 -0.6 -1.1 -0.7 -1.5 -2.4 -3.0 -4.0 -5.2 -4.7 -6.9 -7.4 -6.0 -7.0 -6.6 7-91 -0.4 -0.6 -1.0 -0.7 -1.5 -2.2 -2.8 -3.6 -4.6 -4.1 -5.8 -6.1 -4.6 -4.9 -3.6 -0.4 8-91 -0.4 -0.6 -1.0 -0.7 -1.4 -2.1 -2.5 -3.2 -4.1 -3.7 -5.1 -5.1 -3.8 -3.7 -2.5 -0.3 -0.2 9-91 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.1 -0.7 -1.3 -1.7 -2.3 -3.0 -2.4 -3.5 -3.4 -1.9 -1.5 0.0 2.3 3.8 7.9 10-91 0.2 0.0 -0.3 0.0 -0.6 -1.1 -1.5 -2.0 -2.6 -2.0 -3.0 -2.8 -1.4 -1.0 0.3 2.1 3.0 4.7 1.5 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 8 11,713 8 07,105 8 06,802 8 06,648 811,793 812.802 P r e p a r e d by F ederal R e s e r v e Bank of St. Louis De c ember 13, 1991 12 Gross D om estic Product Seasonally Adjusted Trillions of Dollars Trillions of Dollars 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1991 1990 Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis G r o s s D o m e s t i c P r o d u c t in 1987 D o l l a r s (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terminal Quarter Initial Quarter 4-86 1-87 2-87 1-87 3.0 2-87 4.0 5.1 3-87 <4 . 0 4.5 4.0 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 B i l l i o n s of Doll a r s An nual Rates 2-91 4,460.0 4 ,515.3 4,5 5 9 . 3 4-87 4.5 5.0 4.9 5.9 1-88 4.1 4.4 4.2 4.3 2.6 2-88 4.1 4.4 4.2 4.3 3.5 4.3 3-88 3.9 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.2 3.4 2.5 4-88 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.3 3.6 3.2 3.9 1-89 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.2 3.3 3.0 3.2 2.5 2-89 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.0 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.2 1.9 3-89 3.3 3.4 3.2 3.1 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.3 1.8 1.5 1.1 4 -89 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.1 1.7 1.4 1.1 1.2 1-90 3.0 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.5 4,6 2 5 . 5 4,6 5 5 . 3 4 ,704.8 4,7 3 4 . 5 4 ,779.7 4,8 0 9 . 8 4,832.4 4,8 4 5 . 6 4,8 5 9 . 7 1.7 4,8 8 0 . 8 2-90 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.6 3-90 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.2 4-90 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0. 7 -1.8 -3.9 1-91 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -1. 2 -2.1 -3.2 -2.5 2-91 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0. 7 -1.2 -1.7 -0. 6 1.4 3-91 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.6 -0.8 0.2 1.6 1.8 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4 -90 1-91 2-91 4,9 0 0 . 3 4,9 0 3 . 3 4,855.1 4,824.0 4,8 4 0 . 7 4 ,862.7 Th i r d qua rter 1991 data are final estimates. P r e p a r e d by F e d e r a l Res e r v e Ban k of St. Louis D e c e m b e r 20, 1991 13 Im plicit Price D eflator for GDP Percent Change From Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted Percent Percent Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Implicit Price De fl a t o r (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terminal Quarter Initial Q uarter 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4 -87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 1987 *= 100 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 98.8 1-87 3.3 2-87 3.1 2.9 3-87 3.1 3.1 3.3 4-87 3.3 3 .3 3.4 3.6 1-88 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.6 2-88 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.4 3 -88 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.8 5.1 4-88 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.5 4.5 3.9 99.5 100.3 101.2 102.1 103.2 104.5 105.5 106.9 1-89 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.6 5.4 2-89 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.5 4.8 4.2 3-89 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.3 3.8 4-89 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.1 4.2 3.8 3.5 3.7 1-90 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 3.9 3.8 4.1 4.4 2-90 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.4 3-90 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.7 4-90 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.2 1-91 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.1 5.0 2-91 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.8 4.1 3.1 3-91 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.8 3 .8 3.7 3.6 3.3 3.4 2.6 2.1 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-8 9 4-8 9 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 108.0 108.9 3.4 109.9 111.1 112.3 113.6 114.5 115.9 116.8 117.4 T h i r d quarter 1991 data are final estimates. Pr e p a r e d by Fed e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k of St. Louis Decem b e r 20, 1991 14 F i n a l S a l e s in 1987 D o l l a r s (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) T e r minal Q uarter Initial Quarter 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 1-87 -0.9 2-87 2.3 5.6 3 -87 3.2 5.3 5.1 4-87 2.7 3.9 3.0 1.0 1-88 3.4 4.5 4.1 3.6 2-88 3.6 4.5 4.2 4.0 5.5 4.6 3-8 8 3.3 4.1 3.8 3.4 4.3 3.2 1.9 4-88 3.4 4.1 3.8 3.6 4.2 3.5 3.0 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 B i l l i o n s of D o l l a r s An nual Ra t e s 2-91 4,437.5 4,497.9 4,553.9 4,565.6 6.3 4,636.2 4,688.7 4,710.9 4.1 4,758.7 1-89 3.1 3.7 3.4 3.1 3.5 2.9 2.3 2.5 0.8 2-89 3.0 3.5 3.2 3.0 3.3 2.7 2.2 2.3 1.5 4,768.5 2.1 4,793.5 3-8 9 3.0 3.4 3.2 2.9 3.2 2.7 2.3 2.4 1.9 2.4 2.7 4-8 9 2.8 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.9 2.4 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.7 1.5 0.4 1-90 2.9 3.3 3.0 2.8 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.5 2-90 2.7 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.5 2.0 -0.5 3-90 2.6 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.7 0.2 4-90 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.2 0.0 0.3 -0.3 1-91 2.1 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.4 -0.6 -0.6 -1.3 2-91 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.2 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.6 -0.2 -0.1 -0.5 -0.6 1.2 3-91 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0. 5 -0.6 0.2 -0.7 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 4 ,8 2 5 . 4 4,829.7 4.6 4,884.8 4,8 7 8 . 1 0.9 4,889.4 4, 8 8 6 . 3 -2.4 4,856.8 4, 8 7 1 . 2 4,862.6 Pr e p a r e d by F e d e r a l R e s e r v e Ban k of St. Louis D e c e m b e r 20, 1991 P e r s o n a l C o n s u m p t i o n E x p e n d i t u r e s in 19 87 D o l l a r s (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) T e r minal Quarter 4 -86 1-87 1-87 -0.1 2-87 2.3 4.8 3-8 7 2.8 4.3 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 Initial Quarter A n nual Ra t e s 4-8 8 1-89 2-89 B i l l i o n s of D o l l a r s 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3 -90 4-9 0 1-91 2-91 3,011.5 3,04 6 . 8 3.9 3, 0 7 5 . 8 4-87 2.1 2.8 1.8 -0.1 1-88 3.1 3.9 3.6 3.4 7.1 2-88 3.0 3.6 3.3 3.1 4.8 2.5 3 -88 3.0 3.5 3.2 3.1 4.2 2.7 2.9 4 -88 3.1 3.6 3.4 3.3 4.2 3.2 3.5 4.1 1-89 2.7 3.1 2.9 2.7 3.3 2.3 2.3 1.9 -0.2 3, 0 7 4 . 7 3,128.2 3,147.8 3,170.6 3,202.9 3,200.9 2-89 2.6 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.9 2.1 1.9 1.6 0.4 1.0 3-8 9 2.7 3.0 2.8 2.7 3.1 2.4 2.4 2.2 1.6 2.5 4.1 4-8 9 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.2 1.7 2.1 0.1 1-90 2.4 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.6 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.8 2.1 1.1 2.1 2-90 2.3 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.4 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.6 0.7 1.1 3-90 2.3 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.4 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.2 1.6 1.4 2.8 4-90 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.3 -0. 3 -0.4 -3. 5 3,208.6 3,24 1 . 1 3,241.6 3,258.8 0.0 3,258.6 3,281.2 3,251.8 1-91 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -0.7 -2.4 - 1.3 2-91 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.7. 0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -1. 2 0.0 1.4 3-91 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 -0.3 0.8 1.9 2.3 4 -86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-8 9 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-9 0 4-9 0 1-91 2-91 3,2 4 1 . 1 3,252.4 3,271.2 Th i r d qua rter 1991 data are final estimates. P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l Rese r v e Ban k of St. L o u i s D e c e m b e r 20, 1991 15 R e s i d e n t i a l F i x e d I n v e s t m e n t in 1987 D o l l a r s (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terninal Quarter Initial Quarter 4-86 1-87 2-87 3 -87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 3-90 2-90 4-90 1-91 Bi l l i o n s of Dollars Annual Rates 2-91 1-87 -8.1 2-8 7 -2.4 3.6 3-87 -3.6 -1.2 -5.8 4-87 -3.1 -1.4 -3.8 -1.8 1-88 -3.7 -2.5 -4.5 -3.8 -5.8 2-88 -2.5 -1.3 -2.5 -1.4 -1.2 3.7 3-88 -1.7 -0.7 -1.5 -0.4 0.1 3.2 2.7 4-88 -1.1 -0.1 -0.7 0.4 0.9 3.2 3.0 3.3 1-89 -1.7 -0.8 -1.5 -0.7 -0.5 0.9 -0.1 -1.4 -5.9 2-89 -2.7 -2.1 -2.8 -2.4 -2.5 -1.8 -3.2 -5.0 -8.9 -11.9 3-89 -3.0 -2.5 -3.1 -2.8 -2.9 -2.5 -3.7 -5.2 -7.9 -8.8 -5.6 4-89 -3.4 -2.9 -3.6 -3.3 -3.5 -3.2 -4.3 -5.6 -7.7 -8.3 -6.5 -7.3 1-90 -3.1 -2.7 -3.2 -2.9 -3.1 -2.7 -3.6 -4.6 -6.1 -6.2 -4.2 -3.5 2-90 -4.0 -3.7 -4.3 -4.2 -4.4 -4.3 -5.2 -6.3 -7.8 -8.2 -7.2 -7.7 3-90 -4.9 -4.7 -5.3 -5.2 -5.5 -5.5 -6.5 -7.6 -9.0 -9.5 -9.1 -9.9 -10.8 -15.9 -16.2 4-90 -5.6 -5.4 -6.0 -6.0 -6.4 -6.4 -7.4 -8.4 -9.8 -10.3 -10.1 -11.0 -11.8 -15.6 -15.6 -15.0 1-91 -6.8 -6.7 -7.4 -7.5 -7.9 -8.1 -9.1 -10.2 -11.6 -12.3 -12.4 -13.4 -14.6 -18.0 -18.8 2-91 -6.3 -6.2 -6.8 -6.8 -7.2 -7.3 -8.2 -9.1 -10.2 -10.7 -10.6 -11.2 -11.9 -14.2 -13.8 -13.0 -11.9 3.1 3-91 -5.5 -5.3 -5.8 -5.8 -6.1 -6.1 -6.8 -7.6 -8.5 -8.7 -8.4 -8.7 -8.9 -10.4 -9.3 -7.5 -4.9 6.9 10.9 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4 -87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 225.7 227.7 224.3 223.3 220.0 222.0 223.5 225.3 221.9 215.0 211.9 207.9 0.6 208.2 -7.9 -15.7 190.9 o 0 CM 1 1-90 199.5 183.3 170.7 -24.8 172.0 176.5 P r e pared by Federal R e s e r v e Bank of St. Louis December 20, 1991 N o n r e s i d e n t i a l F i x e d I n v e s t m e n t in 1987 D o l l a r s (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) T e r n i n al Quarter 4-86 1-87 2-8 7 3 -87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 Initial Qua r t e r Annual Rates 4-88 1 -89 2-89 B i l lions of Dol l a r s 3-8 9 4-8 9 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 481.1 1-87 -11.1 2-87 -1.9 8.2 3-8 7 3.5 11.8 15.4 4-87 3.0 8.3 8. 3 1.6 1 -88 3.6 7 .6 7.4 3.6 5.7 2 -88 4.8 8.3 8. 3 6.0 8.3 11.0 3-88 4.5 7.4 7.2 5.2 6.5 6.9 2.9 4-88 4.3 6 .7 6.4 4.7 5.5 5.5 2.8 2.7 1-89 3.9 5.9 5.6 4.1 4.6 4.3 2.2 1.8 0.9 2-89 3.8 5 .6 5. 3 3.9 4.3 4.0 2.3 2.1 1.8 2.7 3-89 3.5 5.1 4.7 3.5 3.8 3.4 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.7 0.8 4-89 3.0 4.4 4.0 2.8 3.0 2.6 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.3 -0.8 -2.5 1-90 3.3 4 .6 4.3 3.2 3.4 3.1 2.1 1.9 1.8 2.0 1.7 2.2 490.7 508.6 510.6 517.7 531.4 535.2 538.8 540.0 5 43.6 5 44.7 5 41.3 550.7 7.1 2-90 2.7 3.9 3.5 2.5 2.6 2.3 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.1 -0.1 1.1 -4.6 3-90 3.1 4 .2 3. 9 3.0 3.1 2.9 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.7 2.0 3.5 1.8 8.5 5 44.3 4-90 2.4 3.4 3.0 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.6 -1.5 0.1 1-91 1.1 1.9 1.5 0.6 0.5 0.1 -0.8 -1.2 -1.6 -2.0 -2.6 -3.2 -3.3 5 55.5 -7.7 544.5 -5.7 -6.1 -12.7 -17.4 519.1 2-91 0.9 1.6 1.2 0.3 0.2 -0.2 -1.1 -1.4 -1.8 -2.1 -2.7 -3.2 -3.3 -5.3 -5.4 -9.6 -10.6 - 3.3 3 -91 0.6 1.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 -0.4 -1.3 -1.6 -2.0 -2.3 -2.8 -3.2 -3.3 -5.0 -5.1 -8.2 -8.4 -3. 5 -3.7 514.8 4-86 1-87 2-8 7 3 -87 4 -87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-8 9 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 510.0 T h i r d quarter 1991 d a t a a r e final estimates. P r e p a r e d b y F ederal R e s e r v e Bank of St. L ouis Decenber 20, 1991 16 E x p o r t s in 1987 D o l l a r s (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terminal Quarter Initial Quarter 4-86 1-87 2-87 1-87 -0.9 2-87 8.1 17.9 3-87 11.3 17.9 17.9 4-87 12.6 17.5 17.3 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 1-90 4-89 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 Bi l l i o n s of D ollars Annual Rates 2-91 342.1 3 56.5 3 71.5 16.7 386.1 1-88 14.7 19.0 19.4 20.1 23.6 2-88 14.0 17.2 17.0 16.7 16.8 10.3 3-88 12.9 15.4 14.9 14.2 13.3 8.5 6.8 4-88 13.0 15.2 14.7 14.1 13.5 10.3 10.3 14.0 1-89 13.0 14.8 14.4 13.8 13.3 10.8 11.0 13.2 12.4 407.1 417.2 424.1 438.2 45 1 . 2 2-89 13.4 15.1 14.8 14.3 13.9 12.1 12.5 14.5 14.8 17.2 3-89 12.2 13.6 13.1 12.5 12.0 10.1 10.1 10.9 9.9 8.7 0.9 46 9 . 5 4-89 12.3 13.6 13.2 12.7 12.2 10.6 10.7 11.5 10.9 10.4 7.1 13.7 1-90 12.0 13.2 12.8 12.3 11.8 10.4 10.4 11.0 10.5 10.0 7.7 11.2 470.5 485.3 496 . 2 8.8 50 2.1 2-90 11.5 12.5 12.1 11.6 11.1 9.8 9.7 10.1 9.5 8.9 6.9 9.1 6.8 4.8 3-90 10.7 11.6 11.1 10.5 10.0 8.7 8.5 8.8 8.0 7.3 5.4 6.6 4.4 2.2 -0.4 4-90 11.1 12.0 11.5 11.1 10.6 9.5 9.4 9.7 9.2 8.7 7.4 8.7 7.6 7.1 8.3 17.7 1-91 9.9 10.6 10.2 9.6 9.1 8.0 7.8 7.9 7.2 6.6 5.1 5.9 4.4 3.3 2.8 4.4 501.6 522 . 5 -7.4 512.5 2-91 10.4 11.1 10.7 10.3 9.8 8.8 8.7 8.9 8.4 7.9 6.8 7.7 6.7 6.3 6.7 9.2 5.1 19.4 3-91 10.3 10.9 10.5 10.1 9.6 8.7 8.6 8.7 8.3 7.9 6.9 7.6 6.8 6.5 6.8 8.7 5.8 13.2 7.3 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 535.7 545. 2 Pr e p a r e d by Federal R eserve Bank of St. Louis D e c e n b e r 20, 1991 I m p o r t s in 1987 D o l l a r s (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terminal Quarter 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 1-87 -5.3 2-87 1.5 8.9 3-87 3.3 8.0 4-87 4.7 8.2 7.9 8.7 1-88 3.4 5.8 4.7 3.6 -1.2 2-88 2.2 3.7 2.5 1.0 -2.6 -4.0 3-88 3.1 4.6 3.7 2.9 1.0 2.2 8.7 4-88 4.1 5.6 5.0 4.6 3.6 5.3 10.2 3-88 Initial Quarter Annual Rates 4-88 1-89 2-89 B i l l i o n s of Doll a r s 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 492.1 502.7 7.0 51 1 . 3 522.1 520.5 515.2 526.1 11.7 540.9 1-89 2.9 4.0 3.3 2.7 1.6 2.3 4.5 2.4 -6.1 2-89 3.3 4.3 3.8 3.3 2.4 3.2 5.1 3.9 0.1 6.9 3-89 3.6 4.6 4.1 3.7 3.1 3.8 5.4 4.6 2.3 6.8 6.8 532.4 541.3 550 . 3 4-89 3.7 4.5 4.1 3.8 3.2 3.8 5.2 4.5 2.7 5.9 5.4 4.0 1-90 3.2 3.9 3.5 3.1 2.5 3.0 4.0 3.3 1.7 3.7 2.7 0.7 -2.5 2-90 3.1 3.7 3.3 3.0 2.4 2.9 3.7 3.0 1.7 3.3 2.4 1.0 -0.4 1.7 3-90 3.5 4.2 3.8 3.5 3.1 3.5 4.4 3.9 2.8 4.3 3.8 3.1 2.8 5.6 9.6 4-90 2.6 3.2 2.8 2.5 2.0 2.3 2.9 2.3 1.2 2.3 1.5 0.5 -0.4 0.4 -0.3 1-91 1.5 1.9 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.7 1.1 0.4 -0.8 -0.1 -1.1 -2.3 -3.6 -3.8 -5.6 -12.4 -15.4 2-91 2.1 2.6 2.2 1.9 1.4 1.6 2.1 1.5 0.5 1.3 0.6 -0.2 -0.9 -0.6 -1.2 -4.5 -2.0 13.3 3-91 3.1 3.6 3.3 3.0 2.7 3.0 3.5 3.1 2.3 3.2 2.8 2.3 2.1 2.9 3.1 1.6 5.5 17.7 22.3 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 555.7 552.2 554 . 5 567.4 -9.3 553.7 531.1 548.0 57 6 . 3 T hird q u a r t e r 1991 d ata are final estimates P r e p a r e d by F e d e r a l Reserve Bank o f St. Louis D e c e m b e r 20, 1991 G o v e r n m e n t P u r c h a s e s of G o o d s a n d S e r v i c e s in 1987 D o l l a r s (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Termi n a l Quarter Initial Quarter 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-87 2.0 2-87 3.3 4.6 3-87 3.1 3.7 2.7 4-87 3.3 3.7 3.2 3.7 1-88 1.7 1.7 0.7 -0.3 -4.1 2-88 1.6 1.5 0.8 0.1 -1.7 0.9 3-88 1.2 1.1 0.4 -0.1 -1.4 0.0 -0.9 4-88 1.7 1.7 1.2 0.9 0.2 1.6 2.0 5.0 1-89 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.2 -0.5 0.4 0.2 0.7 -3.4 2-89 1.5 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.4 1.3 1.4 2.2 0.9 5.2 3 -8 9 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.3 0.9 1.8 2.0 2.7 1.9 4.7 4.1 4 -8 9 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.2 0.9 1.6 1.7 2.3 1.6 3.3 2.4 0.7 1-90 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.5 2.2 2.4 2.9 2.5 4.1 3.7 3.5 6.4 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 Billions of Dollar: Annual Rate: 2-91 869.1 879.0 884.9 893.0 883.7 885.6 883.7 894.5 886.9 898.3 907.4 908.9 923.0 2-90 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.6 2.2 2.4 2.8 2.5 3.7 3.3 3.1 4.3 2.2 3-90 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.4 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.1 3.0 2.6 2.2 2.7 1.0 -0.3 4-90 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.6 2.2 2.3 2.7 2.4 3.2 2.9 2.7 3.2 2.2 2.1 4.6 1-91 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.7 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.4 3.2 2.9 2.7 3.1 2.3 2.4 3.7 928.1 927.5 937.9 2.8 944.5 2-91 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.6 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.2 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.6 1.8 1.7 2.4 1.4 -0.1 3-91 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.7 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.7 0.9 0.7 0.9 -0.3 -1.8 -3.4 944.3 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 936.1 P repared by Federal Res e r v e Bank of St- Louis December 20, 1991 Corporate Profits (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terminal Quarter 4 -86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4 -87 1-88 2-88 3-88 Initial Quarter Annual Rates 4-88 1-89 2-89 Billions of Dollars 3-89 4-8 9 1-87 30.1 2-87 42.3 55.5 3-87 38.6 43.1 31.6 4-87 29.7 29.6 18.3 6.4 1-88 25.7 24.6 15.7 8.5 10.7 2-88 23.7 22.5 15.4 10.5 12.5 14.5 3-88 20.2 18.7 12.4 8.1 8.6 7.6 1.2 4-88 19.6 18.1 12.8 9.4 10.2 10.0 7.9 1-89 15.5 13.8 8.9 5.5 5.3 4.0 0.7 2-89 13.2 11.5 7.0 3.8 3.4 2.0 -0.9 -1.6 3 -89 10.1 8.3 4.0 1.0 0.3 -1.3 -4.2 -5.6 -11.6 -11.2 -16.6 4 -89 8.1 6.3 2.4 -0.4 -1.3 -2.9 -5.5 -6.8 -11.5 -11.3 -14.0 -11.4 1-90 8.0 6.4 2.8 0.3 -0.4 -1.7 -3.8 -4.6 -8.1 -7.1 -7.6 -2.8 6.7 -6.9 -5.8 -5.9 -2.0 3.1 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 282.6 3 15.6 338.0 3 43.3 352.1 364.2 3 65.3 15.0 3 78.3 0.5 -12.2 -8.9 3 66.2 -5.6 361.0 345.0 334.7 340.2 2-90 7.4 5.8 2.5 0.2 -0.4 -1.6 -3.4 -4.1 3 -9 0 3.4 1.7 -1.6 -3.9 -4.8 -6.2 -8.3 -9.4 -12.4 -12.5 -13.8 -13.1 -13.7 -22.3 -39.4 4-90 2.9 1.3 -1.8 -4.0 -4.8 -6.1 -7.9 -8.9 -11.5 -11.4 -12.4 -11.5 -11.5 -16.9 -24.1 1-91 3.2 1.7 -1.2 -3.2 -3.9 -5.0 -6.6 -7.3 -9.5 -9.2 2-91 3.1 1.7 -1.0 -2.8 -3.5 -4.5 -5.9 -6.5 -8.4 3-91 3.1 1.8 -0.7 -2.4 -3.0 -3.9 -5.2 -5.7 -7.4 4-86 1-87 2-87 3 -87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 339.8 299.8 -4.8 296.1 -9.7 -8.5 -7.9 -11.2 -14.5 1.5 -8.0 -8.3 -7.1 -6.3 -8.7 -10.7 1.6 5.1 1.9 -6.9 -7.1 -5.8 -5.0 -6.8 -8.0 2.1 4.5 2.7 3.5 1-89 2-89 3-89 4 -89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 C o r p o r a t e p rofits w i t h capital c o nsumption and inventory v a luation adjustments. -0.5 18 8.4 302.1 3 03.5 306.1 Th i r d q uarter 1991 dat a are final estimates. Prepa r e d by F ederal R e s e r v e Bank of St. Louis December 20, 1991 Gross Saving as a P ercen t of GDP Seasonally Adjusted Percent Percent Total saving equals private saving (personal saving plus business saving) plus government surplus or deficit. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Gross Private Saving (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Termi n a l Q uarter 1-87 Initial Quarter 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 B i l l i o n s of Doll a r s A n nual Rates 2-91 45.1 7 42.7 2-87 1.4 -29.1 3-8 7 8.0 -6.9 22.3 4-8 7 15.9 7.6 32.5 1-88 14.4 7.8 24.0 24.9 8.7 2-88 11.6 5.9 17.0 15.3 3.4 -1.7 3-88 9.8 4.9 13.4 11.3 2.2 -0.9 0.0 4-88 9.8 5.5 12.7 10.9 3.9 2.4 4.5 9.2 1-89 10.2 6.5 12.8 11.3 5.8 5.1 7.5 11.5 2-89 7.8 4.3 9.5 7.7 2.7 1.6 2.4 3.2 681.5 716.7 43.5 784.4 801.0 797.5 797.5 815.3 13.8 842.0 0.3 -11.5 816.6 3-89 6.9 3.7 8.2 6.6 2.1 1.1 1.6 2.0 -0.3 -6.6 -1.4 4-8 9 7.3 4.4 8.6 7.1 3.3 2.5 3.3 3.9 2.6 -0.8 5.0 11.9 1-90 7.4 4.7 8.5 7.2 3.8 3.2 3.9 4.6 3.7 1.3 6.0 9.9 8.0 2-90 7.7 5.2 8.7 7.6 4.5 4.1 4.8 5.5 4.9 3.2 7.3 10.4 9.6 813.7 836.9 853.1 11.3 876.2 3-90 5.3 2.9 5.9 4.7 1.7 1.0 1.3 1.5 0.5 -1.6 0.5 1.0 -2.4 4-90 6.0 3.8 6.7 5.5 2.9 2.4 2.8 3.1 2.3 0.8 3.0 3.9 2.0 0.1 -5.0 16.5 1-91 6.2 4.1 6.9 5.8 3.4 2.9 3.4 3.7 3.1 1.9 3.9 4.9 3.5 2.4 -0.4 13.0 9.7 2-91 6.4 4.4 7.0 6.0 3.8 3.4 3.8 4.2 3.7 2.6 4.6 5.5 4.4 3.7 1.9 11.7 9 .4 9.1 3-91 5.6 3.7 6.1 5.2 3.0 2.6 2.9 3.2 2.7 1.6 3.2 3.8 2.7 1.8 0.0 6.6 3.5 0.6 -7.2 4 -86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 -7.2 -2 2 . 6 821.9 853.9 873.8 893.0 876.4 T h i r d qua r t er 1991 data are final estimates. P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k of St. Louis D e c e m b e r 20, 1991 19 B u sin ess Productivity and C om pensation Percent Change From Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted Percent Percent 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Business Sector Output per Hour (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Te r m i n a l Quarter Initial Q uarter 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 1982 = 100 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 109.5 1-87 0.4 2-87 1.7 3.0 3-8 7 2.1 2.9 2.9 4-8 7 2.3 2.9 2.9 2.9 1-88 2.8 3.4 3.5 3.8 4.7 2-88 2.1 2.5 2.4 2.2 1.8 -1.1 3-88 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.0 0.7 2.5 4-8 8 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.1 -0.1 0.4 -1.7 1-89 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.8 -0.2 0.1 -1.1 -0.4 2-89 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.7 -0.1 0.2 -0.6 0.0 0.4 3-89 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.5 -0.2 -0.1 -0.7 -0.4 -0.4 -1.1 4-89 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.1 -0.5 -0.4 -1.0 -0.8 -0.9 -1.6 -2.1 1-90 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 -0.5 -0.5 -0.9 -0.8 -0.9 -1.3 -1.4 -0.7 110.3 111.1 111.9 113.2 112.9 113.6 113.1 113.0 113.1 112.8 112.2 112.0 112.4 2-90 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.6 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 0.4 1.4 3-90 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.6 1.3 1.1 4-90 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 0.1 0.4 -0.2 -1.4 1-91 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 0.1 0.3 -0.1 -0.7 0.0 2-91 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.6 -0.2 -0.4 3-91 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.9 2.2 4-86 1-87 2-87 3 -87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-8 9 4-8 9 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 112.7 112.3 112.3 112.2 112.8 P r e p a r e d by F ederal R e s e r v e Bank of St. Louis Septe m b e r 5, 1991 20 Net Federal Debt (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter 4-86 1-87 2-87 4-86 12.3 1-87 9.7 7.1 2-87 9.8 8.6 10.2 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 7.5 7.6 5.2 8.7 7.9 8.1 7.1 9.1 1-88 2-88 8.8 8.2 8.4 7.9 9.3 8.5 7.6 8.4 3-88 8.5 7.7 8.4 4 -89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 7.9 8.1 8.0 8.1 - 1 ,833.8 1,944.4 9.4 1 ,988.7 7.6 7.7 7.3 7.7 1-89 8.1 8.0 7.5 7.6 7.2 7.6 7.3 6.7 6.7 6.0 2-89 7.8 7.3 7.3 7.0 7.3 7.0 6.5 6.4 5 .8 3-89 7.8 7.4 7.4 7.1 7.3 7.1 6.7 6.7 4-89 7.8 7.4 7.5 7.2 7.4 7.2 6.9 7.0 7.9 1-91 8.0 8.1 7.9 8.2 8.1 8.5 8.2 8.3 8.2 8.5 8.4 8.8 8.5 8.6 8.5 8.8 8.8 9.0 8.8 8.9 8.8 9.1 9.1 9.0 8.8 8.9 8.9 9.1 9.1 2-91 9.1 9.0 9.1 9.0 9.3 9.3 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 4-90 3-89 1 ,902.6 8.1 6.8 8.1 7.5 8.3 7.3 6.6 6.6 3-90 2-89 1 ,878.7 8.6 2-90 1-89 • 3-87 1-90 4-88 1 ,802.7 4-87 4-88 Bi l l i o n s of Doll a r s Initial Quarter 3-86 8.3 2 ,021.5 2,062.0 4 .9 2,08 6 . 9 2,122.8 7.1 6 .3 6.2 5.4 6.8 6.6 7.8 6 .7 7.2 7.2 8.1 8.1 8.0 8.7 9.1 10.3 11.6 14.9 8.3 8.5 8.5 9.1 9.5 10.6 11.5 13.1 8.7 8.9 9.0 9.6 10.0 9.1 9.3 9.4 10.0 10.5 9.1 9.3 9.4 9.9 10.3 9.3 9.5 9.6 10.1 10.4 11.8 12.9 11.9 12.6 12.3 12.8 13.1 11.3 12.0 13.0 11.0 11.6 12.2 11.6 11.6 11.2 11.1 11.5 12.1 11.5 11.6 11.2 4-88 1-89 2-89 1-88 2-88 3-88 2,15 0 . 7 2,19 1 . 7 2,23 6 . 3 8.4 2 ,315.4 2,37 8 . 3 11.3 2 ,449.8 11.0 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3 -90 2 ,526.4 2,58 2 . 9 9.3 10.3 11.4 4-90 1-91 2,653.5 P r e p a r e d by F e d e r a l R e s e r v e Ban k of St. Louis O c t o b e r 21, 1991 FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT (billions of dollars) Seasonally Adjusted End of Month Totals Gross federal debt Federal debt held by agencies and trusts Net federal debt Federal debt held by Federal Reserve Banks Federal debt held by private investors Federal debt by foreign investors 1987 March June September December 2248.9 2311.6 2362.1 2417.2 414.5 432.9 459.0 473.4 1833.8 1878.7 1902.6 1944.4 199.4 211.7 214.5 217.4 1628.4 1668.1 1690.8 1726.2 271.7 278.0 282.3 301.5 1988 March June September December 2487.6 2550.3 2615.3 2671.0 499.3 527.9 552.1 585.1 1998.7 2021.5 2062.0 2086.9 221.3 226.2 232.5 232.4 1763.7 1797.5 1832.2 1854.8 330.5 342.0 350.5 363.3 1989 March June September December 2740.9 2802.7 2871.8 2938.3 618.0 650.0 678.1 703.6 2122.8 2150.7 2191.7 2236.3 232.8 230.2 224.2 222.4 1886.4 1920.6 1970.1 2011.8 373.6 366.2 400.9 392.9 1990 March June September December 3049.0 3146.9 3249.5 3351.4 735.2 765.1 797.4 823.4 2315.4 2378.3 2449.8 2526.4 223.8 229.6 236.3 252.7 2094.2 2154.7 2220.6 2283.7 382.6 390.1 411.5 422.7 1991 March June 3461.7 3541.5 881.8 883.6 2582.9 2653.5 252.3 252.8 2337.2 2412.4 426.5 439.4 Columns may not add because each component is seasonally adjusted separately. Gross federal debt equals debt held by agencies and trusts plus net federal debt. Net federal debt equals debt held by Federal Reserve banks plus debt held by private investors (which includes debt held by foreign investors). Sources: Original data may be found in the Treasury Bulletin and also in the Federal Reserve Bulletin; seasonally adjusted series prepared by this Bank. 21 FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGETS (billions of dollars, quarterly totals seasonally adjusted at annual rates) Quarters Receipts National income accounts budget Expenditures National Cyclically income accounts adjusted budget budget Cyclically adjusted budget Surplus or d e fic it(-) National Cyclically adjusted income accounts budget budget 1984 1 2 3 4 $ 711.8 722.8 728.8 739.8 $ 744.7 747.9 754.4 771.0 $ 875.5 876.1 892.5 926.6 $ 859.8 880.4 895.6 925.3 $ -1 6 3 .7 -1 5 3 .2 -1 6 3 .7 -1 8 6 .8 -115.1 -1 3 2 .5 -1 4 1 .2 -1 5 4 .3 1985 1 2 3 4 797.8 758.6 794.3 803.6 819.3 780.7 811.8 822.0 947.7 964.9 976.3 990.8 953.0 964.4 991.3 1012.6 -1 4 9 .9 -2 0 6 .3 -1 8 2 .0 -1 8 7 .2 -1 3 3 .7 -1 8 3 .7 -1 7 9 .5 -1 9 0 .6 1986 1 2 3 4 809.4 814.2 828.2 856.8 816.4 832.2 852.1 875.5 992.7 1038.0 1047.9 1034.3 1001.4 1045.2 1032.4 1038.7 -1 8 3 .3 -2 2 3 .8 -2 1 9 .7 -1 7 7 .5 -1 8 5 .0 -2 1 3 .0 -1 8 0 .3 -1 6 3 .2 1987 1 2 3 4 858.4 928.6 924.5 943.5 875.1 938.1 927.2 930.0 1048.1 1058.9 1059.0 1096.3 1057.4 1060.4 1065.6 1103.0 -1 8 9 .7 -1 3 0 .3 -1 3 4 .5 -1 5 2 .7 -1 8 2 .3 -1 2 2 .3 -1 3 8 .4 -1 7 3 .0 1988 1 2 3 4 940.5 970.4 977.8 1000.6 924.9 949.5 953.0 971.4 1098.0 1105.0 1097.3 1135.5 1098.0 1111.4 1098.2 1156.1 -1 5 7 .5 -1 3 4 .6 -1 1 9 .5 -1 3 4 .9 -173.1 -1 6 1 .9 -1 4 5 .2 -1 8 4 .7 1989 1 2 3 4 1045.7 1061.8 1050.8 1062.7 1014.3 1032.2 1020.2 1035.4 1160.2 1172.3 1179.2 1206.0 1181.0 1187.3 1182.0 1208.2 -1 1 4 .5 -1 1 0 .5 -1 2 8 .4 -1 4 3 .3 -1 6 6 .7 -155.1 -1 6 1 .8 -1 7 2 .8 1990 1 2 3 4 1086.8 1106.3 1115.4 1110.7 1061.7 1093.4 1116.0 1132.1 1247.6 1263.2 1265.1 1304.4 1252.2 1275.4 1273.6 1311.2 -1 6 0 .8 -1 5 6 .9 -1 4 9 .7 -1 9 3 .6 -1 9 0 .5 -1 8 2 .0 -1 5 7 .6 -179.1 1991 1 2 3 1115.2 1114.3 1124.6 1160.1 1173.7 N.A. 1261.6 1321.0 1334.8 1257.9 1319.3 N.A. -1 4 6 .4 -2 0 6 .7 -2 1 0 .2 - 97.8 -1 4 5 .6 N.A. N.A. — Not Available F isc a l y e a rs A c tu a l 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 Total budget Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit ( - ) $ 666.5 $ 734.1 $ 769.1 $ 854.1 $ 909.0 $ 990.7 $ 1031.3 $ 1053.8 1322.6 851.8 946.3 990.3 1003.8 1064.1 1144.1 1251.8 $ -185.3 $-212.3 $ -221.2 $-149.7 $-155.1 $-153.4 $ -220.5 $-268.7 C a le n d a r y e a rs National income accounts budget Receipts Expenditures Surplus or deficit(-) $ 725.8 $ 788.6 $ 827.2 $ 913.8 $ 972.3 $ 1055.2 $ 1104.8 892.7 1028.2 1065.6 1065.6 969.9 1179.4 1270.1 $ -166.9 $-181.4 $ -201.0 $-151.8 $-151.8 $-124.2 $ -165.3 Cyclically adjusted budget Receipts Expenditures Surplus or deficit(-) $ 754.5 $ 808.5 $ 844.1 $ 917.6 $ 949.7 $ 1025.5 $ 1100.8 1029.4 1071.6 1115.9 890.3 980.3 1189.6 1278.1 $ -135.8 $-171.9 $ -185.4 $-154.0 $-166.2 $-164.1 $ -177.3 Fiscal years refer to the budget year which runs from October 1 through September 30. Total budget outlays include federal entities that are off-budget. Cyclically adjusted budget data are based on a 6 percent rate of unemployment. Source: Office of Management and Budget and U.S. Department of Commerce. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 22 G overnm ent D e fic it(-)/S u r p lu s( + ) Seasonally Adjusted Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars -6 0 -6 0 -1 1 0 -1 1 0 -1 6 0 -1 6 0 -2 1 0 -2 1 0 -2 6 0 -2 6 0 1986 1985 1987 1988 1990 1989 1991 National income accounts basis Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Federal Defense Expenditures (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) T e r n inai Quarter Initial Quarter 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 1-87 7.7 2-87 9.6 11.5 3-87 8.9 9.4 7.5 4-87 6.2 5.7 2.9 1-88 5.2 4.5 2.3 -0.1 1.2 2-88 3.8 3.1 1.1 -0.9 -0.7 -2.5 3-88 3.1 2.4 0.7 -1.0 -0.8 -1.8 4-88 3.2 2.6 1.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 1.4 3.9 1-89 2.4 1.8 0.4 -0.7 -0.5 -0.9 -0.4 -0.1 -3.9 2-89 2.8 2.3 1.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 1.3 2.0 1.1 6.4 3-89 3.4 3.0 2.1 1.5 1.9 2.0 3.0 4.0 4.1 8.3 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 B i l l i o n s of D o l l a r s An n u a l Rates 2-91 283.8 291.6 296.9 -1.5 295.8 2 96.7 294.8 -1.1 294.0 296.8 293.9 2 98.5 305.8 10.1 4-89 2.7 2.2 1.4 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.5 2.1 1.6 3.5 2.1 -5.4 1-90 3.3 2.9 2.2 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.8 3.4 3.4 5.2 4.9 2.3 10.6 2-90 3.4 3.0 2.4 1.9 2.2 2.4 3.0 3.6 3.5 5.1 4.8 3.0 7.5 30 1 . 6 309.3 4. 5 31 2 . 7 3-90 3.0 2.7 2.0 1.6 1.9 1.9 2.4 2.9 2.7 3.9 3.4 1.7 4.2 1.2 -2.0 4-90 3.6 3.3 2.7 2.4 2.7 2.9 3.4 3.9 3.9 5.1 4.9 3.9 6.3 4.9 5.1 12.8 1-91 4.2 4.0 3.5 3.3 3.6 3.8 4.5 5.0 5.1 6.3 6.3 5.7 8.1 7.4 8.4 14.1 15.4 2-91 3.7 3.5 3.0 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.7 4.1 4.1 5.1 4.9 4.2 5.8 4.9 5.0 7.5 4.9 -4.6 3-91 3.1 2.9 2.4 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.8 3.1 3.0 3.8 3.5 2.7 3.9 2.8 2.4 3.6 0.7 -5.9 -7.2 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4- 8 8 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 311.1 320.6 332.3 328.4 322.3 P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e Ban k of St. Louis De c e m b e r 20, 1991 23 Federal Nondefense Expenditures (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Te r n i n a l Quarter 4-86 1-87 4.6 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 Initial Quarter Annual Rates 4-88 1-89 2-89 2-87 3.1 1.6 1.1 -0.6 -2.7 4-87 5.9 6.4 8.8 21.7 1-88 4.8 4.8 6.0 10.6 0.4 2-88 4.8 4.8 5.6 8.5 2.4 4.5 3-88 3.6 3.4 3.7 5.4 0.5 0.5 -3.4 4-88 5.3 5.5 6.1 8.0 4.8 6.3 7.2 18.8 1-89 6.3 6.5 7.2 8.9 6.5 8.1 9.3 16.3 13.8 2-89 6.0 6.1 6.7 8.1 6.0 7.2 7.8 11.9 8.5 3.5 8.7 5.6 1.6 -0.2 4-89 5.4 6.2 4-89 1-90 2-90 5.5 6.3 801.3 810.2 8 03.3 838.7 866.3 873.8 5.9 7.1 5.1 5.9 6.2 6.8 7.9 6.3 7.2 7.6 9.9 7.8 5.9 7.1 10.9 9.4 8.3 873.4 15.0 904.4 10.0 93 8 . 3 6.9 7.1 7.6 8.7 7.3 8.2 15.4 15.9 6.8 6.9 7.4 8.4 7.1 7.9 8.3 10.1 8.7 7.7 8.8 11.9 10.5 5.3 7.8 6.6 7.2 7.5 9.0 7.6 6.6 7.3 9.2 7.4 3.4 1.5 8.2 7.1 7.7 8.1 9.4 8.3 7.5 8.2 10.0 8.8 6.5 7.1 5.1 5.1 6.0 4.7 3.6 3.6 4.2 2.2 -1.0 -3.0 6.8 2-91 8 00.5 2-90 4-90 1-91 762.1 1-90 6.4 4-90 767.3 8.7 3-90 3-90 764.3 3-87 3-89 Billions of Dollars 3-89 6.5 7.0 6.9 7.4 950.5 954.0 983.8 13.1 -5.1 -20.4 1-91 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.8 4.7 2-91 6.2 6.3 6.6 7.3 6.3 6.8 7.0 8.0 7.0 6.2 6.6 7.6 6.4 4.6 4.4 5.4 1.8 30.2 6.5 6.9 7.1 8.0 7.1 6.4 6.8 7.7 6.7 5.2 5.2 6.1 3.9 18.7 8.3 4 -87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 6.4 6.4 6.7 7.4 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 929.3 992.6 1,012.5 P r e p a r e d by Federal R e s e r v e Bank of St. Louis D e c edber 2 0 , 1991 24
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