Full text of National Economic Trends : January 1990
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N a tio n a l E c o n o m ic T r e n d s January 1990 C o n v e n t io n a l w i s d o m h o ld s th a t t h e c o m p o s it io n o f t h e n a t io n ’ s o u t p u t s h if t e d d r a m a t i c a ll y in t h e 1 9 8 0 s , w i t h u n p r e c e d e n te d c o n s u m e r a n d f e d e r a l g o v e r n m e n t s p e n d in g c r o w d i n g o u t b u s in e s s in v e s t m e n t , r a is in g im p o r t s a n d r e d u c in g e x p o r t s . T h e ta b le b e l o w is u s e f u l i n a s s e s s in g t h e s e v i e w s ; it c o m p a r e s t h e s h a r e s o f m a j o r c o m p o n e n t s o f f i n a l s p e n d in g in r e a l G N P f o r th e f ir s t t h r e e q u a r t e r s o f 1 9 8 9 a n d s ix p r e v io u s d e c a d e - e n d in g y e a r s . F r o m 1 9 7 9 to a n d im p o r t p u r c h a s e s a ll ro s e fa s te r th a n G N P , w h ile th e s h a re o f fix e d b o o s tin g t h e ir s h a re s o f G N P , B u s in e s s fix e d in v e s t m e n t (n o n r e s id e n t ia l), h o w e v e r , r o s e r e la t iv e to G N P any o f th e y e a rs The 1989 p r e v io u s show n e x c e p t fo r 1929. E x p o rts s h a r e o f c o n s u m e r s p e n d in g , t h o u g h s ix decades. s h a r e o f s p e n d in g a ls o fo r d e fe n s e ) h a s fa lle n . h a s f a lle n s in c e th e n as r e a l G N P T h u s , th e c o n v e n tio n a l w is d o m a ls o The in th e a h ig h e r s h a re la r g e , is n o t a r e c o r d ; F e d e ra l g o v e rn m e n t p u rch ase s (m a in ly r o s e to has been th is in 1 9 8 9 , c o n s u m p t io n , g o v e r n m e n t in v e s t m e n t f e ll. 1 9 8 0 s , r e a c h i n g a h i g h e r s h a r e t h a n in th e 19 80s. sh a re w a s a la r g e r s h a re la r g e r at th e e n d o f tw o of G N P in th e p a s t. s h a re o f sta te a n d lo c a l p u r c h a s e s ro s e fr o m S in c e 1 9 5 9 to o f th e 1959, it s 1969, but g r o w t h o u ts tr ip p e d th a t o f s ta te a n d lo c a l g o v e r n m e n t p u r c h a s e s o f g o o d s a n d s e r v ic e s . a b o u t th e c h a n g in g c o m p o s it io n o f o u tp u t in th e 1 9 8 0 s is f a u l t y . C o n s u m e r a n d fe d e ra l g o v e r n m e n t p u r c h a s e s d id n o t r is e to u n p r e c e d e n t e d s h a r e s o f t o ta l o u t p u t ; m o r e o v e r , r e a l b u s in e s s in v e s t m e n t a n d e x p o r ts have g ro w n fa s te r th a n re a l G N P . M a jo r Com ponent R e a l S p e n d in g C o m p o n e n ts as a P e rc e n t o f R e a l G N P 1989 1979 1969 1959 1949 1939 1929 6 4 .4 % 6 2 .8 % 6 0 .1 % 6 0 .1 % 6 2 .7 % 6 7 .1 % 6 6 .4 % P e r s o n a l c o n s u m p t io n e x p e n d it u r e s F i x e d in v e s t m e n t N o n r e s id e n tia l 1 6 .9 1 7 .5 1 5 .9 1 5 .6 1 6 .1 1 1 .5 1 8 .1 1 2 .3 1 2 .2 1 1 .1 9 .4 1 0 .4 7 .4 1 3 .1 E x p o rts 1 4 .1 1 1 .2 6 .8 5 .1 5 .9 5 .1 5 .9 Im p o rts 1 5 .4 1 1 .1 8 .2 6 .3 4 .2 4 .2 5 .3 G o v e rn m e n t p u rch a se s 1 9 .5 1 9 .1 2 4 .4 2 4 .4 2 0 .4 2 0 .1 1 3 .3 8 .2 7 .4 1 2 .2 1 3 .6 1 0 .8 7 .5 2 .6 1 1 .3 1 1 .7 1 2 .2 1 0 .8 9 .6 1 2 .6 1 0 .7 Fe d e ra l S ta te a n d lo c a l V ie w s — T H E F E D E R A L R E S E R V E H A N K of S T .liH IS e x p re s s e d d o n o t n e c e s s a r ily r e f le c t o f f ic ia l p o s itio n s o f t h e F e d e ra l R e s e r v e S y s te m . Jo h n A . T a to m T O T A L C IV IL IA N E M P L O Y M E N T (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL MONTH THOUSANDS OF PERSONS IN IT IA L MONTH 4-88 s~e8 6-88 7-88 8-8 8 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-8 9 9-89 10-89 5-88 -2 .7 (-8 8 1.8 6.5 115.001 7-8$ 1.5 5.4 0 .5 115.054 8-88 1.4 2 .8 1.1 114.405 9-88 1.5 2 .6 10-88 1.6 2 .5 1.8 115.205 1.5 1.8 1.8 115.570 1.5 1.9 1.9 2.1 115.575 115.947 11-88 1.9 2 .7 2 .0 2 .4 2 .6 5 .0 4 .0 12-88 1.8 2.4 1.8 2 .0 2.1 2 .2 2 .5 0.6 116.009 116.711 1-89 2.4 5.0 2 .6 2 .9 5.2 5.5 4 .0 4 .0 7.5 2-89 2 .5 2 .9 2 .4 2 .7 2 .9 5.1 5 .4 5.2 4 .4 l.S 5-89 2.4 2 .9 2 .5 2 .8 2 .9 5.1 5 .5 5.1 5.9 2.2 116.855 2 .9 117.156 117*115 4-89 2.1 2 .6 2 .2 2 .4 2 .5 2 .6 2 .7 2 .4 2 .9 1.4 1.5 -0 .2 5-89 2.1 2 .5 2.1 2 .5 2 .5 2.4 2 .4 2 .2 2 .5 1.5 1.2 0.4 1.1 6-89 2.1 2 .5 2 .2 2.4 2.4 2 .5 2 .6 2 .4 2 .7 1.7 1.8 1.4 2 .2 117.215 117.541 5.4 117*459 7-89 1.9 2 .5 2 .0 2.1 2.1 2 .2 2 .2 2 .0 2 .2 1.5 1.2 0.8 1.2 1.5 -0 .8 8 -89 1.9 2 .2 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.9 2 .1 1.5 1.5 0.9 1.2 1.5 0.5 1.4 117*597 117.456 9-89 1.7 2 .0 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.6 -0 .5 0.0 -1 .4 10-89 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.0 0 .9 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.5 -0 .5 0.9 11-89 1.7 2 .0 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.1 1.1 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.8 0 .6 1.7 4-88 5-88 6-88 7-88 8-8 8 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-8 9 5-89 4-89 5-8 9 6-89 7-89 8-8 9 117.545 2 .5 117.786 9-89 10-89 IN IT IA L MONTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T. LOUIS DECEMBER 8* 1989 PAYROLL EM P LO YM EN T (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL MONTH 4-88 5-88 5-88 2 .2 6-88 5.8 5 .5 7-88 5.5 5.9 6-88 7-88 8-8 8 IN IT IA L MONTH OF PERSONS 1-89 2-89 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 THOUSANDS 5-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8 -8 9 9-89 10-89 105.091 105*561 2 .4 105.768 8-88 5.0 5.5 2 .5 2.1 9-88 5.0 5.2 2 .5 2 .5 2 .9 10-88 5.0 5.2 2 .6 2 .7 5.0 5.1 11-88 5.2 5.5 2 .9 5.0 5.5 5.5 4 .0 105.954 106.207 106.475 106.824 12-88 5.2 5.5 2 .9 5.0 5.5 5.4 5.6 5.1 1-89 5.2 5.4 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.5 5.9 2-89 5.2 5.5 5.1 5.2 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.0 5-89 5.1 5.2 2 .9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.0 5.0 2 .5 2 .0 4-89 5.1 5.1 2 .9 5 .0 5.1 5.1 5.1 2 .9 2 .8 2 .5 2 .2 2 .4 5-89 5.0 5.1 2 .8 2 .9 5.0 5.0 5.0 2 .8 2 .7 2 .4 2 .2 2 .4 2 .5 6-89 5.0 5.1 2 .9 2 .9 5 .0 5.0 5.0 2 .9 2 .8 2 .6 2 .5 2.7 2 .8 5.5 107.097 107.442 107.711 107.888 108.101 108.510 108.607 7-89 2 .9 5.0 2 .8 2 .8 2 .9 2 .9 2 .9 2 .7 2 .7 2 .5 2 .4 2 .5 2 .5 2 .6 1.8 8 -89 2 .8 2 .9 2 .7 2 .7 2 .8 2 .8 2 .7 2 .6 2 .5 2 .5 2 .2 2 .2 2 .2 2.1 1.6 108.767 108.887 1.5 9-89 2 .8 2 .8 2 .7 2 .7 2 .7 2 .7 2 .7 2 .6 2 .5 2 .5 2 .2 2 .5 2 .2 2 .2 1.8 1.8 2 .5 10-89 2 .7 2 .7 2 .6 2 .6 2 .6 2 .6 2 .5 2 .4 2 .5 2 .2 2 .1 2.1 2 .0 2 .0 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.0 11-89 2 .7 2 .7 2 .6 2 .6 2 .6 2 .6 2 .5 2 .4 2 .5 2 .2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2 .0 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.7 4-88 5-88 6-88 7-88 8-8 8 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-8 9 5-89 4-89 5-8 9 6-89 7-89 8 -8 9 109.096 109.189P 2 .5 109.599P 9-89 10-89 IN IT IA L MONTH P- PRELIM IN A RY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERV E BANK OF S T . LO U IS DECEMBER » 1989 8 2 EMPLOYMENT RATI O SCALE M I L L I O N S OF PERSONS RATI O SCALE M I L L I O N S OF PERSONS SEASO NALLY A D JU S TE D SOURCEt U.S.D EPARTM ENT OF LABOR BEGIN N IN G JANUARY 1086. TOTAL EMPLOYMENT DATA INCORPORATE NEW PROCEDURES FOR ESTIM A TIN G MEASURES OF IMMIGRATION AND EMIGRATION INCREASING TOTAL EMPLOYMENT BY ABOUT 0 .3 % . PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PER IO D S LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt INDICATED. NOVEMBER PR ELIM IN A RY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESER VE BANK OF S T . UNEMPLOYMENT PERCENT S E A S O N A LLY LO U IS RATE PERCENT A D JU S TE D 1 .0 10 1 0 .0 9.0 8 .0 7.0 6 .0 5.0 4.0 1981 1982 19 8 3 1984 19 8 5 1986 19 8 7 SOURCEt U .S . 1988 1 98 9 DEPARTMENT OF LABOR PERCENT OF C I V IL IA N LABOR FORCE LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt NOVEMBER PREPARED BY FE D E R A L 3 R E S E R V E BA N K O F S T . LO U IS C O N S U M E R P U C E IN D E X F O R A L L U R B A N C O N S U M E R S ( C e n p o u M A s a t ta i R a te s o f G fc a a g e ) TERMINAL MONTH IN IT IA L MONTH 4-e a 5-e a m s 7-88 8 -8 8 9-88 10-88 n - 8 8 12-aa i-8 9 2-8 9 1982-84*100 5-11 4-8 9 M i h > 7-89 m * 9-89 io -8 9 117.7 5-8 8 5 .2 H 8 4 .7 4 .2 118.1 7-88 4 .9 4 .7 5 .2 118.6 8 -8 8 4 .7 4 .5 4 ,7 119.0 4.1 9-88 5 .2 119.5 120.0 10-88 4 .8 4 .8 4 .9 4 .8 S .l 5.1 11-88 4 .« 4 .5 4 .5 4 .4 4 .4 4.1 5.0 120.5 120.7 12-88 4 .5 4 .4 4 .5 4 .5 4 .5 4 .1 5.6 4 .1 1-89 4 .8 4 .8 4 .8 4 .8 4 .9 4 .8 4 .7 5 .6 121.9 5.1 2-89 5-89 121.4 7 .2 4 .9 4 .9 5 .0 5 .0 5.1 5 .1 5 .1 5 .6 6.1 5 .6 6.1 122.5 125.5 4-89 5 .2 5 .2 5 .5 5 .5 5 .5 5 .5 6.1 6 .6 6.4 7.1 8 .1 5-89 5 .5 5 .4 5 .5 5 .5 5 .6 5 .7 5 .8 6.2 6 .7 6.6 7.1 7.6 7.0 «-8 9 5 .1 5.1 5 .2 5 .2 5 .5 5 .5 5 .5 5 .6 5 .9 5 .6 5 .8 5 .7 4 .5 2 .0 7-89 5 .0 4 .9 5 .0 5 .0 5.1 5 .0 5 .0 5 .5 5 .5 5 .2 5 .2 5 .0 4 .0 2 .4 124.0 124.2 2 .9 124.5 124.5 8-8 9 4 .6 4 .6 4 .4 4 .6 4 .6 4 .6 4 .5 4 .7 4 .8 4 .4 4 .5 4 .0 2 .9 1.6 1.5 0.0 9-89 4 .5 4 .4 4 .4 4 .4 4 .4 4 .4 4 .5 4 .4 4 .4 4.1 4 .0 5 .6 2 .7 1.7 1.6 1.0 10-89 4 .4 4 .5 4 .5 4 .5 4 .5 4 .5 4 .4 4 .5 4 .6 4 .5 4 .2 4 .0 5.5 2 .5 2 .7 2 .6 5.9 5 .9 11-89 4 .6 4 .5 4 .6 4 .5 4 .5 4 .5 4 .5 4 .6 4 .6 4 .4 4 .5 4 .1 5.5 2 .9 5.1 5 .2 4 .2 5 .4 4-8 8 5-8 8 6-88 7-88 8-8 8 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2 -89 5-89 4-89 5-8 9 6-89 7-89 8-8 9 124.7 1.9 125.5 4 .9 125.8 9-89 10-89 IN IT IA L MONTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS DECEMBER 19» 1969 P R O D U C E R P R IC E I N D E X , F I N I S H E D G O O D S (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL MONTH 4-8 8 IN IT IA L MONTH 5-8 8 5-88 5.4 6-88 2 .8 2 .5 6-88 7-88 8-8 8 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 1982 - 100 5-89 4-8 9 5-89 6-89 7-89 8 -8 9 9-89 10-89 107.4 107.6 7-88 4 .2 4 .6 6 .9 8-8 8 4 .0 4 .2 5.1 5.4 9-88 4 .5 4 .8 5 .7 5.1 6.8 10-88 4 .0 4.1 4 .5 5.7 5 .9 1.1 108.2 108.5 109.1 109.2 11-88 5.9 5.9 4 .5 5 .6 3.7 2 .2 5.5 12-88 5.9 4 .0 4 .5 5.8 5 .9 5.0 5.9 4 .5 1-89 5 .0 5 .2 5 .6 5 .4 5 .8 5 .6 7.1 9.1 15.9 2-89 5 .6 5 .9 6.5 6.5 6.7 6 .7 8 .2 9.8 12.6 11.4 5-89 5 .6 5 .8 6.2 6.2 6.6 6.5 7.6 8 .7 10.2 8 .4 5 .5 4-8 9 5 .6 5 .8 6.2 6.1 6.4 6.4 7.5 8 .1 9 .0 7.4 5 .5 5 .5 5-89 6.0 6.2 6 .6 6.6 6.9 7.0 7.8 8 .6 9.4 8 .5 7.5 8 .5 11.1 6-89 5 .7 5 .8 6.1 6.1 6.5 6.5 6.9 7.5 8 .0 6.8 5 .7 5 .8 6 .0 1.1 7-89 4 .8 4 .9 5 .1 5 .0 5 .1 5 .0 5 .4 5 .7 5 .8 4 .6 5 .2 2 .7 1.8 -2 .6 -6 . 1 8-8 9 4 .2 4 .2 4 .4 4 .2 4.2 4 .0 4 .5 4 .4 4 .4 5.1 1.8 1.1 0 .0 -5 .5 -5 .6 -5 .2 9-89 4 .6 4 .6 4 .8 4 .7 4 .8 4 .6 4 .9 5.1 5.1 4.1 5.1 2 .7 2.1 0 .0 -0 .5 2 .7 11.1 109.5 109.9 111.1 112.1 112.6 115.1 114.1 114.2 115.6 115.1 114.1 10-89 4 .6 4 .7 4 .8 4 .7 4 .8 4 .6 4.9 5.1 5 .2 4.2 5 .4 5.1 2 .7 1.1 1.1 5 .6 8 .2 5 .4 11-89 4 .5 4.4 4 .5 4 .5 4 .4 4 .2 4 .5 4 .6 4 .6 5.7 2 .9 2 .5 2.1 0 .7 0.6 2 .4 5 .0 2.1 4 -8 8 5-88 6-88 7-88 8-8 8 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2 -89 5-89 4-89 5-8 9 6-89 7-89 8 -8 9 114.6 -1 .0 114.5 9-89 10-89 IN IT IA L MONTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO U IS DECEMBER 15» 1989 4 RATIO SCALE 1981 PR IC ES 1982 1983 1984 1985 RATIO SCALE 1986 1987 1988 1989 CONSUMER P R IC ES DATA ARE ON A I982-S4-I00 BASE CPI-U DATA BEGINNING I O f3 INCORPORATE A RENTAL EQUIVALENCE MEASURE FOR HOMEOVNERSHIP COSTS. PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIOOS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED; NOVEMBER PREPAREO I Y FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS r a t io scale PRODUCER 1982-100 P R IC E S SEASO NALLY AD JUSTED r a t io scale 1982-100 PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED* NOVEMBER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 5 P R O D U C E R P R IC E IN D E X , F IN IS H E D C O N S U M E R F O O D S ( C o M f o n M A r a m ! R a te s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL MONTH IN IT IA L MONTH 4 -* « 5-8 8 4-88 7-88 8 -5 8 VM 10-98 11-88 12-88 M i 2-8 9 1982 * 100 5-89 6.7 *-88 8 .4 7-88 8 .6 9.5 8 .9 8 -8 8 8 .4 8 .9 8 .5 7.7 9-88 8 .9 9.5 9.2 9 .4 6-89 7-89 8 -8 9 9-89 10-89 11.1 6 .0 1.1 5 .4 2 .6 112.1 10.2 112.9 10-88 7 .6 7.7 7.1 6 .5 11-88 7.1 7.1 6.5 6 .0 115.6 114.6 114.7 4 .3 115.1 115.2 12-88 6.3 6.2 5 .6 S.O 4 .3 2.1 2 .6 1.0 1-89 7.4 7.5 7.1 6.8 6.7 5.6 7.2 8 .6 16.8 2-89 7.9 8 .0 7.7 7.6 7.5 6.8 8 .3 9.7 14.3 116.7 11.9 117.8 118.8 5-89 8.1 8 .5 8 .0 7.9 8 .0 7.5 8 .8 10.0 13.1 11.3 4—89 6.8 6.8 6.5 6.2 6 ,0 5 .3 6.0 6.4 7.7 4 .9 1.5 -6 .8 8 .3 6.5 4 .5 1.5 1.5 7.1 5-8 9 111.2 5-88 5-89 4-8 9 7.1 6.8 6.6 6.7 10.7 118.1 10.6 119.1 -1 .3 118.4 6.5 5 .9 4 .9 5 .0 5 .6 3.5 1.5 -6 .8 4 .2 4 .2 4 .7 2 .8 1.0 -1 .3 0.7 -4 .0 1.5 -0 .2 1.5 -1 .3 7.1 6-89 6.0 6.0 5 .6 S .5 5.1 4.4 7-89 5 .5 5 .4 5.1 4 .8 4 .5 3.9 4 .2 4 .2 4 .6 3.0 1.5 4.1 3.1 5.0 3.3 1.7 0.3 -1 .3 -0 .2 -2 .7 -1 .3 -1 .5 -6 .9 3.3 2 .3 1.2 2 .6 1.0 3.1 4 .5 4 .6 17.5 13.4 8-8 9 5 .4 5 .4 5 .0 4 .7 4 .5 3.9 9-89 4.7 4 .6 4 .2 3.9 3.6 3.0 118.3 -1 .0 118.7 10-89 5,4 5 .5 5 .0 4 .7 4 ,5 4 .0 4 .3 4 .3 4 .6 11-89 5 .6 5 .5 5 .2 5 .0 4 .8 4 .4 4 .7 4 .7 5 .0 3.9 3.1 2 .2 3.5 2 .4 4 .3 5 .7 6.2 4-88 5-88 6-88 7-88 8 -8 8 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-8 9 3-89 4-89 5—89 6-89 7-89 8-8 9 118.0 119.6 9.4 120.5 9-89 10-89 IN IT IA L MONTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS DECEttER 15» 1989 P R O D U C E R P R IC E I N D E X , F I N I S H E D G O O D S , E X C L U D I N G F O O D S (C o m p o o n M A nnual Rates of Change) TERMINAL MONTH 4-88 IN IT IA L MONTH 5-88 6-88 7-88 8-8 8 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-8 9 1982 » 100 5-89 4-8 9 5 -8 9 6-89 7-89 8-8 9 9-89 10-89 106.1 5-88 2 .3 6-88 1.1 0 .0 7-88 2 .7 2 .9 5 .8 8-8 8 2 .9 3.1 4 .6 3.4 106.1 106.6 106.9 107.3 9-88 3.2 3.4 4 .6 4 .0 4 .6 10-88 2 .9 3.0 3.7 S.O 2 .8 1.1 11-88 2 .9 3.0 3.7 3.1 3.0 2 .3 3.4 12-88 3.3 3.4 4 .0 3.6 3.7 3.4 4 .6 5 .7 107.4 107.7 108.2 1-89 4 .3 4 .6 5 .2 5.1 5 .5 5 .7 7.3 9 .3 12.9 2-89 4 .8 5.1 5 .7 5 .7 6.1 6.4 7.7 9.2 11.0 9.1 109.3 3-89 4 .7 5 .0 5 .6 5 .5 5 .8 6.1 7.1 8 .0 8 .8 6.8 4 .4 4-89 5 .2 5 .5 6.0 6.0 6 .4 6.6 7.6 8 .4 9.1 7.9 7.5 10.2 5-89 5 .7 6 .0 6.6 6 .7 7.0 7.4 8 .3 9.1 9.8 9.0 9 .0 11.4 12.5 6-89 5 .5 5 .7 6.2 6.3 6 .5 6.8 7.5 8 .1 8 .5 7.6 7.5 8 .2 7.2 2 .2 7-89 4 .7 4 .8 5 .2 5 .2 5 .3 5 .4 5 .9 6.2 6.3 5 .2 4 .4 4 .4 2 .5 -2 .1 -6 .2 8-8 9 3.8 3.9 4 .2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4 .4 4 .5 4 .3 3.2 2 .2 1.7 -0 .3 -4 .2 -7 .2 110.1 110.5 111.4 112.5 112.7 112.1 -8 .2 111.3 9~8£ 4 .6 4 .8 5.1 5 .0 5 .2 5 .2 5 .6 5 .8 5 .8 5 .0 4 .4 4 .4 3.5 1.1 0.7 4 .4 18.7 10-89 4 .4 4 .5 4 .8 4 .7 4 .8 4 .8 5.1 5 .3 5 .2 4 .4 3.8 5.8 2 .7 0 .9 0.5 2 .9 8 .9 0.0 11-89 4 .0 4 .0 4.3 4 .2 4 .2 4 .2 4 .5 4 .5 4.4 3.6 3.0 2 .9 1.9 0 .2 -0 .2 1.3 4 .8 -1 .6 -3 .1 4-8 8 5-88 6-88 7-88 8-8 8 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-8 9 6-89 7-89 8-8 9 H 9 10-89 112.9 112.9 112.6 IN IT IA L MONTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERV E BANK OF S T . LO U IS DECEMBER 15» 1989 6 N D U S T R I A L P R O D U C T I O N RATI O SCALE R ATI O SCALE 1977-100 155 1977-100 155 SEASO NA LLY A D JU S TE D 150 150 +0. 9X 145 145 140 140 +5.SZ y 135 130 135 130 +0.6Z W 125 125 12 0 115 110 120 / 115 L ¿ A 110 / -/J. 6 z\ 105 105 7 -J. U VJ| 100 95 90 ^ ♦ * ♦ 1981 100 if à fc * i i % i V I 1982 ♦ 1983 \ 95 % ♦ 198 4 t \ t 1985 f ì 19 8 6 198 7 1988 90 19 8 9 PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt NOVEMBER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS IN D U S T R IA L P R O D U C T IO N ( C o m p o u M Aniiaal Rates of Change) TERMINAL MONTH 4-88 1977 « 100 IN IT IA L MONTH 5-88 «-88 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 5-89 «-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 15«.1 5-88 «♦4 «-88 5*0 5.« 7-88 7.9 8.7 14.0 8-88 7.0 7.2 9.1 4.4 9-88 5.8 5 .« «.5 2 .« 0.9 10-88 «.0 5.9 «.5 4.1 4.0 7.2 11-88 5.8 5.7 «.1 4.2 4.1 5.8 12-88 5 .« 5.5 5.8 4.2 4.2 5.5 4.4 4.4 1-89 5.4 5.2 5.5 4.1 4.0 4.8 4.1 5.9 15«.5 158.0 158.5 158.« 159.4 159.9 4.4 140.4 5.5 140.8 2-89 4.5 4.5 4.4 5.1 2.9 5.5 2.4 1.7 0.4 -2.5 5-89 4.5 4.1 4.1 2.9 2.7 5*1 2.5 1.7 0.9 -0.4 1.7 140.5 140.7 4-89 4.7 4.5 4 .« 5.« 5.5 5.9 5.5 5.1 2.8 2 .« 5.2 8.9 5-89 4.2 4.0 4.1 5.1 5.0 5.5 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.7 5.2 5.9 -0.8 «-89 4.2 4.0 4.0 5.2 5.0 5.5 2.8 2 .« 2.5 2.1 5.2 5.7 1.5 5.4 7-89 5.8 5.« 5.« 2.8 2.7 2.9 2.4 2.2 1.8 1.« 2.4 2 .« 0 .« 1.5 -0.8 8-89 5.9 5.7 5.8 5.0 2.9 5.1 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.1 2.9 5.1 1.7 2 .« 2.1 5.2 9-89 5.5 5.5 5.5 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.1 1.9 1.« 1.4 2.0 2.0 0.7 1.1 0.5 0.8 -5.5 10-89 2.9 2.7 2 .« 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.9 0.7 -0 .« -0.5 -1.5 -1.7 -4.9 - « .« 11-89 2.8 2 .« 2 .« 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.« 1.0 0.9 -0.2 -0.1 -0.8 -0.8 -2.8 -2.5 4-88 5-88 «-88 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 5-89 «-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 141.7 141.« 142.0 141.9 142.5 142.1 141.5P 1.7 141.5P IN IT IA L MONTH PRELIM IN A RY PREPARED BY FED ERAL R ESER V E BANK OF S T . LO U IS IS * 1989 7 PERSONAL RATIO SCALE TRILLIONS INCOME RATIO MONTHLY T O T A L S A T ANNUAL R ATE S OF DOLLARS TRILLIONS SEASO NA LLY A D JU S TE D OF SCALE DOLLARS 5.2 4.8 .5410 4.4 4.0 3.6 3.2 2 .8 2.4 2 .0 1981 1982 19 8 3 19 8 4 1985 1986 1 98 7 1988 19 8 9 SOURCEt U .S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED* NOVEMBER PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS P E R S O N A L IN C O M E (Compounded A nnual R ite s of Change) TERMINAL MONTH 4-86 5-88 6-88 7-86 8-68 IN IT IA L MONTH ANNUAL RATES 9-86 10-88 11-68 12-68 1-89 2-69 BILLION S OF DOLLARS 5-69 4-69 5-89 6-89 7-89 6-89 9-69 10-89 4*025.5 5-66 5.0 6-68 4.5 8.1 7-66 7.5 8.7 9.4 6-66 6.7 7.2 6.8 4.049.4 4.079.8 4.094.2 4.5 »-66 6.8 7.5 7.0 5.8 7.4 10-66 8.8 9.6 10.0 10.2 15.5 19.6 4.118.6 11-66 7.0 7.4 7.2 6.7 7.5 7.6 -5.5 12-68 7.5 7.9 7.9 7.6 8.4 8.8 5.8 11.5 1-69 8.9 9.5 9.7 9.7 10.8 11.7 9.2 16.0 20.8 2-69 9.4 9.9 10.2 10.5 11.5 12.1 10.5 15.5 17.5 15.8 4*180.4 4*168.9 4*206.5 4*275.1 4*519.5 5-89 9.7 10.1 10.4 10.5 11.4 12.1 10.7 14.4 15.5 12.9 12.1 4-69 9.5 9.9 10.1 10.2 10.9 11.4 10.1 15.0 15.5 11.1 9.8 7.5 5-69 8.9 9.5 9.4 9.4 10.0 10.5 9.0 11.2 11.2 8.9 7.5 5.0 2.5 4-69 8.7 9.0 9.1 9.1 9.5 9.8 8.6 10.4 10.5 8.5 7.0 5.5 4.2 5.9 7-69 8.6 8.9 9.0 8 .9 9.5 9.5 8.5 10.0 9.9 8.1 7.0 5.8 5.5 6.6 7.4 6-69 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.5 8.9 9.0 8.0 9.5 9.1 7.5 6.5 5.4 4.8 5.6 5.5 4*560.7 4*587.1 4*596.5 4*417.5 4*445.7 5.6 4*456.9 9-69 8.0 8.2 8.2 8.1 8.4 8.5 7.5 8.6 8 .4 6.9 5.9 4.9 4.4 4.9 4.6 5.2 2.8 10-69 8.1 8.5 8.5 8.2 8.5 8.6 7.7 8.8 8.5 7.2 6.4 5.7 5.4 5.9 5.9 5.5 6.4 10.1 11-89 8.2 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.6 8.7 7.9 8 .9 8.7 7.6 6.9 6.5 6.1 6.7 6.8 6.7 7.8 10.5 4-88 5-86 6-68 7-88 6-68 9-86 10-66 11-66 12-66 1-69 2-69 5-69 4-69 5-89 6-89 7-69 8-69 4*467.1 4*505.2 10.6 4*541.OP 9-69 10-89 IN IT IA L MONTH P- PRELIM IN A RY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERV E BANK OF S T . LO U IS DECEMBER 21» 1969 8 RETAIL SALES R ATI O SCALE RATI O SCALE B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS BILLIO N S S EAS O N A LLY A D JU S TE D OF DOLLARS 170 160 150 1 40 130 12 0 1 10 100 90 80 70 1981 1982 19 8 3 19 8 4 19 8 5 19 8 6 1 98 7 1 98 8 1 98 9 SOURCE« U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED« OCTOBER, NOVEMBER ADVANCE ESTIMATE PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS R E T A IL S A LE S (Compounded A nnual Rates of Change) TERMINAL MONTH 4-88 MILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN IT IA L MONTH 5-88 6-88 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 »-89 10-89 154*005 5-88 8 .7 6—88 9.5 9.9 7-88 8 .5 8.0 6.2 9-88 6.5 5.5 5.5 0.5 155*060 155*741 155*800 155*421 9-88 4.5 5.2 1.1 -1.4 -5.5 10-88 7.9 7.8 7.5 7.6 11.4 28.5 11-88 8.4 8.4 8.1 8.6 11.4 19.6 11.5 12-88 7.0 6.7 6.2 6.2 7.7 11.6 4.1 -2.8 1-89 7.0 6.8 6.4 6.4 7.7 10.6 5.5 2.5 7.6 2-89 5.8 5.4 4.9 4.7 5.4 7.2 2.6 -0.5 1.0 -5.1 5-89 5.5 5.0 4.4 4.2 4.7 6.1 2.2 0.0 0.9 -2.2 0.8 4-89 6.5 6.0 5.7 5.6 6.5 7.7 4.6 5.5 4.9 4.0 8.9 17.6 5-89 6.5 6.4 6.1 6.0 6.7 8 .0 5.4 4.4 5.9 5.5 9.2 15.7 10.0 6—89 6.0 5.8 5.5 5.4 5.9 7.0 4.6 5.7 4.8 4.5 6.8 8 .8 4.7 -0.4 7-89 6.5 6.1 5.8 5.8 6.2 7.5 5.1 4.4 5.4 5.1 7.5 8 .9 6.2 4.5 9.5 8-89 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.2 6.7 7.6 5.8 5.1 6.2 6.0 7.9 9.4 7.5 6.7 10.4 158.259 159*520 159*189 140*040 159.428 159*516 141*415 142*545 142.500 145.555 144.860 11.5 9-89 6.4 6.5 6.0 6.0 6.4 7.5 5.6 5.0 5.9 5.7 7.5 8 .5 6.7 5.9 8.1 7.5 10-89 5.1 4.9 4.6 4.5 4.8 5.4 5.7 5.0 5.6 5.2 4.5 4.8 2.8 1.4 1.8 -0.5 11-89 5.4 5.2 4.9 4.8 5.1 5.8 4.2 5.6 4 .2 5.9 4.9 5.5 5.8 2.8 5.5 2.1 -0.8 -5.0 4-88 5-88 6-88 7-88 8-88 »-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 5.6 145.295 -6.1 -14.9 145.558P 10.5 144»557E IN IT IA L MONTH P- PRELIM IN A RY E- ESTIM ATED PREFARED BY FEDERAL R ESER V E BANK OF S T . LO U IS DECEM ER IS * 1989 8 9 H O U R L Y C O M P E N S A T IO N , B U S IN E S S S E C T O R (C o m p o u n d e d A u v a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER IN ITIA L QUARTER 4-84 1-85 4.5 2-85 4.5 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 1977*100 5-87 4-87 1-88 4.7 4.8 5.6 5.5 6.0 6.5 1-86 5.2 5.4 5.8 5.9 5.5 2-86 5.1 5.2 5.5 5.4 5.0 4.5 5-86 5.0 5.1 5.5 5.2 4.9 4.6 4.7 178.6 181.0 185.0 185.1 187.4 5.0 5.1 5.5 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.9 5.1 1-87 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.0 5.9 5.5 1.9 2-87 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.0 5.7 5.6 5.2 2.5 2.6 5-87 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.4 4.2 5.9 5.8 5.6 5.1 5.8 4-87 4,7 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.1 4.8 6,0 7,1 1-88 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.1 4.0 5.8 4.5 4,9 4,9 2,7 188.5 189.5 191.8 4,9 195.1 196.4 2-88 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.1 4.6 5,1 5,1 4,1 5,6 5-88 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.8 5,2 5,5 4,7 5.7 2-89 5-89 2-89 175.9 4-86 4,7 1-89 171.8 5.1 4.7 4-66 175.5 5-85 1-89 5-68 4.0 4-85 4-88 2-68 199.1 5.7 201.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.8 5,2 5,5 4,8 5.5 5.5 5.5 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.8 5,1 5,2 4.8 5.5 5.5 5.0 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.7 5,1 5,4 5,4 5.2 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 6.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.7 5,0 5,5 5,5 5.1 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.8 4.6 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-86 5-86 4-66 1-89 2-89 4-84 4.8 1-85 204.5 206.9 210.4 212.8 IN IT IA L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST, LOUIS DECEMBER 6. 1989 O U T P U T P E R H O U R O F A L L P E R S O N S , B U S IN E S S S E C T O R (Compounded A nn ual Rates of Change) TERMINAL QUARTER 4-84 IN IT IA L QUARTER 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 1-85 2.5 2-85 2.7 5.0 5-85 2.9 5.2 4-85 2.5 2.5 2.5 1.1 1-86 5.5 5.8 4.0 4.5 7.6 2-66 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.6 5.4 -0.7 5-86 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.6 -1.5 -1.8 5-86 4-66 1-87 2-67 1977*100 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-66 4-86 1-69 2-69 106.5 107.1 5.4 106.0 108.5 110.5 110.1 109.6 4-86 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.4 -0.6 -0.5 0.7 1-87 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.5 -0.5 -0.1 0.7 0,7 2-67 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.5 0.5 0.5 1.5 1,6 2,6 5-87 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.8 0.8 1.2 1.9 2,5 5,1 5.7 4-87 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.1 1.4 2.1 2,5 5,0 5.5 2.9 109.8 110.0 110.7 111.7 112.5 1-88 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.5 1.6 2.2 2,5 2,9 5.0 2.7 2.5 2-88 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.6 0.9 1.1 1.6 1,7 1,9 1.7 1.1 0.2 -2.1 5-88 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.1 1.5 1.7 1,9 2,1 1.9 1.5 1.1 0.4 2.9 4-8$ 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.0 1.2 1.6 1,7 1.8 1.7 1.5 0.9 0.4 1.6 0.4 1-89 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.2 1.5 1,6 1.7 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.5 1.4 0.7 2-89 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.2 1,5 1,6 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.7 1.4 0.9 1.2 1.4 5-69 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.5 1,5 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.1 0.9 1.5 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.8 4-64 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-66 4-66 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-68 2-86 5-68 4-86 1-69 2-89 115.2 112.6 115.4 115.5 1.1 115.8 114.2 114.7 IN ITIA L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS DECEMBER 6» 1989 10 PR O D U C T IV IT Y , CO M PEN SA TIO N , AND LABOR CO STS RATIO SCALE RATIO SCALE 1977-100 1981 SEASO NALLY AD JUSTED 1982 1983 1984 1985 1977-100 1986 1987 1988 1989 SOURCE« U .S . DEPARTMENT OF LABOR PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED« 3RD QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS U N I T L A B O R C O S T S , B U S IN E S S S E C T O R (Compounded A in o a J Sates of Cbiftge) TERMINAL QUARTER 4-64 IN IT IA L QUARTER 1-65 2—65 1-65 2.5 2-65 1.5 0.7 5-65 1.9 1.7 2.7 4-65 2.6 2.7 5.7 5-65 4-65 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 1977*100 5-87 4-87 1-86 2-86 5-68 4-88 1-89 2-89 161.6 161.9 165.0 4.7 164.9 1-66 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.4 -1.9 2-66 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.7 1.7 5.5 5-66 2.9 5.0 5.4 5.6 5.2 5.9 6 r4 4-66 5.0 5.1 5.6 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.2 4.1 1-67 2.9 2.9 5.2 5.5 5.0 4.5 5.9 2.7 2-67 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.6 5.5 5.0 1.9 0.8 0.2 5-67 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.5 5.0 2.5 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.7 4-67 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 5.2 2.9 2.2 1.7 1.8 2.6 1-66 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.8 2.5 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.2 0.0 2-66 2.6 2.6 5.0 5.0 2.6 5.4 5.1 2.7 2.4 2.7 5.5 4.1 4.0 8.1 164.1 166.5 166.9 170.6 1.4 171.2 171.5 171.6 4.5 175.5 175.5 176.9 5-66 2.6 2.6 5.0 5.0 2.8 5.5 5.1 2.7 2.5 2.6 5.1 5.7 5.5 5.5 2.5 4*-88 2.9 2.9 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.5 5.5 2.9 2.8 5.0 5.4 4.0 5.9 5.2 5.8 5.0 1-69 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.5 5.5 5.0 2.9 5.1 5.5 4.0 5.9 4.8 5.8 4.4 5.8 2-69 5.1 5.1 5.5 5.5 5.2 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.1 5.5 5.7 4.1 4.0 4.9 4.1 4.6 4.4 4.9 5-69 5.1 5.1 5.5 5.5 5.2 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.1 5.5 5.6 4.0 5.9 4.6 5.9 4 .2 5.9 4.0 5.1 4-64 1-65 2-65 5-65 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-66 4-86 1-87 2-67 5-67 4-87 1-86 2-66 5-86 4-88 1-89 2-89 176.0 180.2 181.9 184.1 185.5 IN IT IA L QUARTER PREPARED BY FED ERA L R ESER V E BANK OF S T . LO U IS DE CEMBER » 1969 6 11 G R O S S N A T IO N A L P R O D U C T I N C U R R E N T D O L L A R S ( C o n p o m M A i i i a l R a te s o f O u ta g e ) TERMINAL BILLIONS OF DOLLARS INITIAL QUARTER QUARTER 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-8« 2-8« 5-8« 4-8« 2-87 1-87 1-65 7.9 2-65 6.7 5 .« H S 6.8 «.5 7.0 4-es 6.6 « .2 « .« «.2 1-8« 6.8 «.5 «.8 « .7 2-86 5.9 5.4 5.4 4.9 4.5 1.5 5-8« 5.8 5.5 5.5 5.1 4.7 5.5 5.7 4-86 5.6 5.5 5.5 4.9 4 .« 5.7 5.0 4.2 1-87 6.0 5.7 5.8 5 .« 5.4 5.0 «.2 «.5 8 .8 2-87 6.2 « .0 «.1 5.9 5.9 5 .« «.7 7.0 8 .5 8.2 5-87 6.4 «.2 «.5 « .2 «.2 «.1 7.0 7.4 8.4 8.5 8.4 4-87 6.6 «.5 « .« «.5 « .« «.5 7.4 7.7 8 .« 8.5 8.7 4-87 5-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 ANNUAL RATES 5*925.« 5*979.0 4*047.0 4*107.9 7.5 4*181.5 4*194.7 4*255.5 4*297.5 4*588.8 4*475.9 4*5««.« 9.0 4*««5.8 1-88 « .« «.5 « .« 6.5 « .« «.5 7.2 7.5 8 .2 8.0 7.9 7.7 «.5 2-88 «.7 « .« «.7 6.7 «.8 «.7 7.4 7.« 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.0 7.5 8 .« 4*759.8 5-88 «.8 «.7 «.8 6.8 «.8 «.8 7.4 7.« 8.1 8.0 8.0 7.9 7.5 8.1 7.5 4-88 «.8 «.8 «.8 6.8 «.9 «.9 7.4 7.« 8.1 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.5 7.9 7.5 4*858.5 4*92«.9 5*017.5 7.5 5*115.1 1-89 «.9 « .8 «.9 « .9 7.0 «.9 7.5 7.« 8 .0 7.9 7.9 7.8 7 .« 7.9 7 .« 7.7 7.9 2-89 «.9 «.8 «.9 «.9 7.0 «.9 7.4 7.« 7.9 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.1 5-89 «.9 «.8 «.9 « .9 «.9 «.9 7.5 7.5 7.8 7.7 7.« 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.2 7.1 «.7 «.2 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-8« 2-8« 5-8« 4-8« 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5*201.7 5*281.0 IN IT IA L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST, LOUIS DECEMBER 20» 1989 G R O S S N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T I N 19S2 D O L L A R S (C o b b o v b M A B sa al Rates of Cbaage) TERMINAL QUARTER 4-84 1-85 1-85 4.9 2-85 5.7 2.4 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-8« 2-8« 5-8« IN IT IA L QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 4-8« 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5*577.5 5*599.2 5-85 5.8 5.5 4.1 4-85 5 .« 5.2 5.5 5.0 5*«55.8 1-8« 4.2 4.0 4.5 4 .7 « .« 2-8« 5.2 2 .8 2.9 2.5 2.5 -1.8 5-8« 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.1 1.8 -0.5 0.8 4-8« 2.8 2,5 2*ft 2.1 1.9 0.4 1.« 1-87 5.1 2.8 2.9 2 .7 2 .« 1.7 2.8 5.8 5.4 2-87 5.2 5.0 5.1 2.9 2.9 2.2 5.2 4.0 4.9 4.4 5*««2.4 5*721.1 5*704.« 5*712.4 5*755.« 2.5 5*785.0 5*825.5 5-87 5.4 5.2 5.5 5.2 5.2 2.7 5.« 4.5 5.0 4.8 5.5 4-87 5 .« 5.5 5 .« 5 .« 5.7 5.5 4.1 4.8 5.4 5.4 5.9 « .« 1-88 5.7 5 .« 5.7 5 .« 5.7 5.4 4.1 4.7 5.1 5.1 5.5 5.5 4.0 2-88 5.7 5 .« 5.7 5 .« 5.7 5.4 4.0 4.5 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.8 5.9 5*872.8 5*955.« 5*974.8 4*010.7 5.7 5-88 5 .« 5 .« 5 .« 5 .« 5,7 5.4 4.0 4.4 4 .« 4.5 4 .« 4.4 5 .« 5.4 5.2 4-88 5 .« 5.5 5 .« 5.5 5.« 5.5 5.8 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.2 4.0 5.4 5.2 2.9 2.7 1-89 5 .« 5.5 5 .« 5.5 5.« 5.5 5.8 4.1 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.0 5.5 5.5 5.2 5.2 5.7 2-89 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5,5 5.5 5.7 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.0 5.8 5.5 5.2 5.0 5.0 5.1 2.5 5-89 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.7 5.9 4.0 5.9 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.1 2.8 5.0 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-8« 2-8« 5-8« 4-8« 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 4*042.7 4*0«9.4 4,104.8 4*152.5 4*1«2.9 INITIAL QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS DECEMBER 20» I9B9 12 GROSS N A T I O N A L R A T I O S C A L E TRILLIONS OF PRODUCT QUARTERLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES TRILLIONS DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED R A T I O OF S C A L E DOLLARS 4.8 6 3.2 0 2.8 6 1 98 1 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 S O U R C E : P E R C E N T A G E S .A T E S T D A T A A R E A N N U A L P L O T T E D « R A T E S 3 R D O F C H A N G E F O R P E R IO D S 1987 U . S . 1988 D E P A R T M E N T 1989 O F C O M M ER C E IN D IC A T E D . Q U A R T E R PREPARED 13 BY FEDERAL R E S E R V E BANK OF ST. LOUIS GENERAL P R I C E RATIO INDEX* SCALE RATIO 1982-100 1981 SCALE 1982-100 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 «AS USED IN NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS SOURCE; U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt 3RD QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS IM P L IC IT P R IC E D E F L A T O R F O R G R O S S N A T IO N A L P R O D U C T (C o m p o n a d e d A n n u a l R a t e s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER 4—84 IN IT IA L QUARTER 1-85 2-85 5-65 4-65 1-66 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-67 2-87 1962 « 100 5-67 4-87 1-88 2-88 1-85 2.6 2-85 5.0 5.5 3-65 2.8 2.9 2.6 4-85 2.9 5.1 2.9 5.5 1-86 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.0 2-66 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.5 1.8 2.9 5-86 2.9 5.0 2.9 5.0 2.9 4.0 5.0 4-66 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 5.2 5.4 1.8 1-67 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 5.2 5.5 2.5 5.2 2-87 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 5.5 5.4 2.9 5.5 5.8 5-87 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 5.2 5.5 2.9 5.5 5.5 2.8 4-87 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.8 5.1 5.2 2.8 5.0 5.0 2.6 2.4 1-66 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 5.0 5.0 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.4 2.2 2.0 2-88 2.9 5.0 2.9 5.0 2.9 5.2 5.2 5.0 5.2 5.2 5.0 5.1 5.4 4.8 5-88 5.0 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.5 5.5 5.1 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.7 4.6 4.4 4-88 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 4.0 4.6 4.5 1-89 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7 4.0 4.4 2-89 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.8 4.1 4.5 3-89 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.9 4-64 1-85 2-65 5-65 4-65 1-66 2-66 5-66 4-66 1-67 2-67 5-67 4-67 5-66 4-86 1-69 2-69 109.7 110.6 111.5 112.2 0.7 112.4 115.2 114.6 115.1 116.0 117.1 117.9 118.6 119.2 120.6 121.9 4.7 125.5 4.5 4.5 4.0 124.5 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.2 4.1 5.9 5.9 5.2 1-66 2-66 5-68 4-66 1-69 2-69 125.9 126.9 INITIAL Q U A R T E R P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S D E C E M B E R 20» 1969 14 P E R S O N A L C O N S U M P T I O N E X P E N D I T U R E S IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S (Co s n v b M A a a a a l Rates of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER *-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 IN IT IA L QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4-88 1-89 2-89 1-85 10.2 2,554.9 2-85 8 .7 7.1 9-85 9.1 8.5 9.9 2*661.4 4-85 8.5 7.7 7.9 6 0 2,700.4 1-8« 7.7 7.0 7.0 5 6 2-86 7.0 6.4 6.2 5 0 4.5 4.0 5-86 7.4 7.0 6.9 6 2 6.2 6.8 9.8 2,826.0 4—86 7.5 6.8 6.8 6 2 6.2 6.6 7.9 6.2 2,868.5 1-87 7.2 6.8 6.8 6 2 6.5 6.6 7.5 6.4 6.6 2-87 7.5 7.2 7.2 6 9 7.0 7.4 8.5 7.8 8.6 10.7 5-87 7.7 7.4 7.5 7 2 7.5 7.7 8.5 8.1 8.8 9.9 9.2 4-87 7.5 7.1 7.1 6 6.9 7.1 7.6 7.2 7.5 7.8 6.4 1-88 7.4 7.2 7.2 6 7.1 7.5 7.8 7.5 7.7 8.0 7.1 6.1 8.7 2-88 7.4 7.2 7.2 7 7.1 7.2 6.6 8.0 7.4 5-88 7.4 7.2 7.5 7 7.1 7.5 7.5 6.8 7.9 7.5 7.5 7.2 7.4 7.0 7.8 7.5 7.6 7.6 7.0 7.7 7.4 7.4 7.4 2.599.5 4-88 7.5 7.5 7.5 1-89 7.4 7.5 7.5 7 7.2 2-89 7.4 7.5 7.5 7 7.2 5-89 7.5 7.5 7.5 7 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 7 2,754.5 5.1 7.5 2,761.0 7.7 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.7 7.6 2,914.7 7.9 7.8 2,989.4 5.055.9 5,085.5 5.6 5,148.1 5,204.9 5,265.4 5,524.0 7.7 7.5 7.6 7.8 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.4 7.6 7.7 7.5 7.4 7.6 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.5 7.1 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.6 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.4 7.1 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.6 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5,381.4 7.1 5,444.1 5,508.1 IN IT IA L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS DECEMBER 20» 1989 P E R S O N A L C O N S U M P T IO N (C o b b o b b M TERMINAL QUARTER 4-84 1-85 1-85 6.8 2-85 5.0 5.2 5-85 5.6 5.0 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 E X P E N D IT U R E S IN 1 9 *2 D O L L A R S A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a a g e ) IN IT IA L QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 BILLIO N S OF DOLLARS 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 2,519.1 2,557.4 6.8 2,575.9 4-85 4.6 5.9 4.5 1.9 1-86 4.5 4.0 4.2 5.0 2-86 4.4 5.9 4.1 5.2 5.8 5.6 5-86 4.5 4.1 4.5 5.7 4.4 4.5 5.4 4-86 4.2 5.9 4.0 5.4 5.8 5.7 5.8 2,586.9 4.1 2,410.9 2,452.4 2,464.4 2.2 2,477.8 1-87 5.8 5.4 5.4 2.9 5.1 2.8 2.5 1.1 0.1 2-87 5.9 5.5 5.6 5.1 5.5 5.2 5.1 2.5 2.4 4.8 5-87 5.9 5.6 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 2.9 5.2 4.8 4.7 4-87 5.5 5.2 5.5 2.9 5.0 2.8 2.7 2.2 2.2 2.9 2.0 2,478.5 2,507.7 2,556.5 -0.7 2,552.5 1-88 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.2 2.9 5.0 5.7 5.4 2.7 6.2 2-88 5.7 5.4 5.4 5.1 5.5 5.2 5.1 2.8 2.9 5.5 5.2 2.7 4.4 2.5 5-88 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.2 5.5 5.2 5.1 2.9 5.0 5.5 5.2 2.8 4.0 2.9 2,570.8 2,586.8 5.5 2,608.1 4-88 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.1 5.5 5.2 5.1 2.9 5.0 5.4 5.2 2.9 5.8 5.0 5.2 5.0 1-89 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.0 2.8 2.9 5.2 5.0 2.7 5.4 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.0 2-89 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.0 5.1 5.0 2.9 2.7 2.8 5.1 2.9 2.6 5.2 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.0 1.9 5-89 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.5 5.2 5.0 5.5 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.8 5.6 4-84 1-85 2-85 5—85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-8* 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 2,627.7 2,641.0 2,655.7 2,690.1 INITIAL Q U ARTER P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K OF ST. L O U I S D E C E M B E R 20» 1989 15 G R O S S PRIVATE D O M E S T I C I N V E S T M E N T IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S ( C o m p o u r t e d Anntiil Rates of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER 4-84 1—85 -12.9 2-85 -2.9 5-85 -7.0 4-85 -1.2 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 IN IT IA L QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 BI L L I O N S OF DOLLARS 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 659.5 8.4 652.5 -5.9 -14.8 626.7 5.1 0.6 18.7 654.1 1-86 2.7 7.0 6.5 19.1 2—86 -0.5 2.2 0.8 6.5 1.0 -14.7 5-84 -1.2 0.9 -0.6 5.4 -1.5 -10.5 -5.7 4-84 -1.0 0.8 -0.4 2.8 -0.8 -6.8 -2.5 0.7 19.4 685.8 657.2 647.7 648.8 1-8? 0.8 2.6 1.8 4.9 2.5 -1.6 5.2 8.0 15.8 2-87 1.5 5.1 2.4 5.1 5.0 0.0 4.1 7.6 11.2 6.7 5-87 1.7 5.5 2.7 5.1 5.5 0.9 4.5 7.0 9.1 5.9 5.2 4-87 4.2 6.0 5.7 8 .5 7.1 5.4 9.2 12.4 15.6 15.5 20.1 1-88 5.0 4.5 4.1 6.2 4.9 5.2 6.1 8.2 9.7 8.5 8 .8 675.1 684.1 692.8 57.1 749.7 10.7 -10.7 728.8 2-88 5.6 5.0 4.7 6.7 5.5 4.1 6.7 8.6 10.0 8.9 9.4 10.8 -0.5 11.2 5-88 4.2 5.5 5.5 7.2 6.2 4.9 7.4 9.1 10.4 9.5 10.1 11.5 5.8 11.9 748.4 4-88 5.5 4.5 4.2 5.8 4.8 5.6 5.6 6.9 7.7 6.6 6.6 6.9 0.4 4.4 1.2 -9.2 1-89 5.6 4.7 4.5 6.0 5.1 4.0 5.9 7.1 7.9 6.9 7.0 7.5 2.1 5.6 5.8 -0.4 9.2 2-89 5.6 4.6 4.4 5.8 5.0 5.9 5.6 6.7 7.4 6.5 6.4 6.6 2.2 5.0 5.6 0.7 6.0 2.8 5-89 5.5 4.5 4.5 5 .6 4.8 5.8 5.4 6.4 6.9 6.0 5.9 6.0 2.2 4.5 5.5 1.0 4.7 2.5 2.1 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 12.7 771.1 752.8 769.6 775.0 779.1 IN IT IA L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS DECEMBER 20» 1989 G R O S S P R IV A T E D O M E S T IC IN V E S T M E N T IN 1982 D O L L A R S (C o a p o w r ie d A u r a l R a te s o f C h am g e) TERMINAL QUARTER 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 1-85 -12.4 2-85 -2.5 5-85 -7.6 4-85 -1.2 2.9 0.2 20.8 1-86 2.5 6.6 5.9 19.6 2-86 -1.4 1.0 -0.8 5-86 -2.7 -1.0 4-86 -5.1 1-87 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 IN IT IA L QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 BILLION S OF DOLLARS 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 654.5 647.5 8 .6 -5.0 -17.0 618.1 648.0 18.5 676.1 5.5 -1.8 -18.5 642.5 -2.8 1.1 -4.7 -14.5 -10.5 -1.7 -5.4 -0.4 -0.6 0.9 -0.1 5.0 -0.2 2-87 0.1 1.6 0.7 5.5 5-87 0.9 2.5 1.6 4-87 5.2 4.8 1-88 2.5 2-88 -5.1 -11.8 625.1 615.2 -8.5 -6.2 -4.4 0.8 6.9 21.8 0.9 -2.5 2.2 6.8 15.9 6.6 4.2 2.1 -0.4 5.6 7.5 12.4 8.0 9.5 4.4 7.1 5.5 5.8 8.0 12.1 17.2 15.7 20.6 52.8 5.7 5.2 5.5 5.9 2.5 5.6 8.6 11.8 9.4 10.5 10.8 -7.6 2.4 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.9 2.4 5.4 7.9 10.4 8.2 8.6 8 .4 -2.1 646.5 656.7 671.7 721.1 707.0 715.5 5.7 5-88 5.0 4.2 5.9 5.9 4.6 5.5 6.1 8.5 10.6 8.8 9.5 9.2 2.5 7.7 11.8 4-88 2.0 5.0 2.6 4.5 5.0 1.7 4.0 5.8 7.4 5.4 5.5 4*4 -1.7 0.4 -1.2 -12.7 1-89 2.5 5.5 2.9 4.5 5.5 2.2 4.5 5.9 7.5 5.6 5.5 4.8 0.0 2.0 1.4 -5.4 2-89 2.1 5.0 2.7 4.1 5.0 1.9 5.9 5.5 6.5 4.9 4.7 4.0 -0.1 1.4 0.9 -2.5 5.0 -0.7 5-89 2.1 5.0 2.7 4.1 5.0 2.0 5.8 5.0 6.1 4.7 4.5 5.9 0*5 1.7 1.2 -1.2 2.9 1.0 2.7 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 755.6 709.1 721.1 6.9 719.8 724.6 I N I T I A L Q U ARTER P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S D E C E M B E R 20» 1989 16 G O V E R N M E N T P U R C H A S E S O F G O O D S A N D (C o « p o « a M TERMINAL QUARTER S E R V IC E S IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S A n a a il R a te s o f C h a a g e ) IN IT IA L QUARTER 1-65 2-15 5-85 4-65 1-«« 2-6« 4-64 1-07 2-67 5-87 <-«7 1-88 2-«» 5-« 4-6« 1-89 BILLIONS OF DO L L A R S ANNUAL RATES 2-«» 10 6 764.4 2-65 10 t 9.1 601.7 5-65 If 4 14.7 1-65 20.4 640.2 654.7 4-65 12 1 12.5 14.2 6.1 1-6« 6 9 6.4 6.2 2.4 - S.0 2-6« 6 9 6.4 6,4 4.4 5.0 ».2 5-64 6 4 6.0 7.6 4.6 5.7 7.2 650.5 649.5 5.2 660.5 666.9 4-64 7 6 7.4 7.1 4.4 5.6 4.1 4.4 4.0 1-67 7 9 7.5 7.5 5.2 4.7 4.7 5.6 4.1 2-67 7 5 7.2 4.9 5.1 4.4 4.2 5.5 904.9 6.5 4.4 914.6 955.2 5-67 7 5 7.2 7.0 5.4 5.0 4.4 5.6 4.0 5.9 7.5 4-67 7 4 7.1 4.9 5.5 5.2 4.4 5.9 4.1 4.0 4.6 4.5 1-66 4 6 4.4 4.2 4.6 4.5 5.5 4.9 4.9 4.5 4.2 2.7 -0.6 2-66 4 7 4.4 4.2 5.0 4.7 5.5 5.1 5.1 4.7 4.7 5.9 2.7 4.2 5-66 4 2 5.9 5.7 4.5 4.2 4.9 4.4 4.4 5.6 5.4 2.7 1.4 2.7 4-66 7 2 7.0 4.9 5.9 5.7 4.5 4.2 4.4 1-69 4 9 4.7 4.5 5.4 5.4 4.1 5.6 5.9 2-69 4 9 4.7 4.5 5.7 5.5 4.2 5.9 4.0 5-69 4.1 947.5 945.7 940.1 -0.4 958.4 1.011.4 4.4 4.6 4.4 4.7 9.4 11.0 25.9 5.6 4.0 5.6 5.7 7.4 7.6 12.5 1.6 4.0 4.2 4.0 5.9 7.5 7.4 10.5 4.4 1.014.0 1*055.2 4.9 4 7 4.4 4.5 5.5 5.5 5.9 5.4 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.7 5.5 5.4 4.5 4.5 6.4 5.4 4.4 2.2 4-64 1-65 2-65 5-65 4-65 1-64 2-64 5-64 4-64 1-67 2-67 5-67 4-67 1-66 2-66 5-66 4-66 1-69 2-69 1*056.9 IN IT IA L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS DECEMBER 20* 1989 G O V E R N M E N T P U R C H A S E S O F G O O D S A N D (C o m p o n M TERMINAL QUARTER 4-64 S E R V IC E S IN 1982 D O L L A R S A n n o a J R a te s o f C h a n g e ) IN IT IA L QUARTER 1-85 2-65 5-85 1-65 7.5 2-65 4.9 4.5 5-65 11.0 15.0 19.8 4-65 8.4 9.0 10.5 1.4 4-85 1-84 2-64 5-84 4-84 1-67 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-68 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-89 BILLIO N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 2-69 705.5 714.7 749.8 752.7 1-64 5.8 5.5 5.1 -1.5 -4.5 2-64 4.4 4.5 4.2 2.0 2.5 9.5 5-64 5.8 5.4 5.4 2.1 2.2 5.8 2 1 4-64 5.8 5.4 5.4 2.8 5.1 5.8 5 9 5.8 744.1 741.2 745.2 774.0 1-67 5.2 4.9 4.7 2.4 2.5 4.4 2 7 5.0 0.5 2-67 4.4 4.5 4.0 1.9 2.0 5.5 1 8 1.7 -0.5 774.4 -0.9 774.9 5-67 4.4 4.5 4.0 2.2 2.5 5.5 2 5 2.4 1.5 1.8 4.5 4-67 4.5 4.5 4.1 2.5 2.4 5.4 2 7 2.8 2.1 2.7 4.5 4.5 1-68 5.5 5.2 2.9 1.5 1.5 2.1 1 0 0.9 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -2.1 -6.5 2-66 5.5 5.5 5.0 1.4 1.4 2.5 1 4 1.5 0.4 0.7 1.0 -0.1 -2.5 5-68 5.1 2.8 2.5 1.1 1.1 1.7 0 9 0.7 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -1.0 -2.7 0.2 -5.4 4-66 5.9 5.4 5.4 2.5 2.5 5.0 2 5 2.4 1.9 2.2 2.7 2.5 1.8 5.4 4.1 14.7 785.5 792.1 775.1 4.1 785.0 775.9 804.4 1-69 5.4 5.2 5.0 1.9 1.9 2.4 1 8 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.4 0.8 5.2 2.9 4.2 -5.5 2-69 5.5 5.5 5.1 2.1 2.1 2.7 2 1 2.1 1.7 1.9 2.5 1.9 1.5 5.4 5.5 4.0 1.0 5.4 5-69 5.2 5.0 2.8 1.8 1.8 2.5 1 7 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.4 0.9 2.4 2.5 5.8 -0.2 1.4 -2.4 4-64 1-85 2-65 5-65 4-65 1-64 2-64 5-84 4-64 1-67 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-68 2-68 5-88 4-68 1-89 2-69 799.7 810.5 805.5 INITIAL Q U A R T E R P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S D E C E M B E R 20» 19*9 17 D I S P O S A B L E P E R S O N A L I N C O M E IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S ( C o m p o u n d e d A n i m a l Rates of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER 4-84 1-85 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN IT IA L QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 5.4 4-87 1-88 2-85 9.1 15.1 5-85 5.5 5.5 -1.5 4-85 6.5 6.6 5.5 8.6 1-86 6.7 7.0 5.1 8.6 8 .5 2-86 6.7 6.9 5.5 7.9 7.5 6.5 5-86 6.1 6.2 4.8 6.5 5.8 4.4 2.4 4-86 6.0 6.0 4.9 6.2 5.7 4.7 5.8 5.5 1-87 6.5 6.6 5.7 7.0 6.7 6.2 6.1 8.0 10.8 2-87 5.8 5.8 4.9 5.9 5.4 4.8 4.4 5.0 4.9 -0.6 5-87 6.2 6.5 5.6 6.5 6.2 5.9 5.7 6.6 7.0 5.2 11.5 4-87 6.8 6.9 6.5 7.2 7.0 6.8 6.8 7.7 8.4 7.6 11.9 12.4 7.6 8.1 7.4 10.5 9.7 7.0 7.4 9.5 8.9 7.1 7.2 1-88 6.8 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 2*764.6 6.9 2*850.7 6.5 2*840.0 7.2 2*899.5 7.0 2*959.2 6.8 5*006.5 6.9 5*024.5 5*065.4 5*142.8 5*158.1 5*225.5 5*519.4 5*576.4 2-88 6.8 6.9 6.4 7.2 7.0 6.9 6.9 7.6 8.0 5*455.9 5-88 7.0 7.1 6.6 7.5 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.8 8.1 7.7 9.4 8.9 7.8 8.2 9.1 8.2 7.9 9.5 8.9 8.1 8.4 9.0 8.9 5*511.7 5*587.4 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.7 8.5 8.6 8.5 9.7 9.4 8.8 9.5 10.0 10.4 11.9 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.6 8.1 8.4 8.1 9.5 9.0 8.4 8 ,* 9.1 9.1 9.1 6.5 7.0 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.5 8.0 8.2 8.0 9.0 8.7 8.1 8.5 8.5 8.4 8.2 6.5 6.5 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 4-88 7.1 7.2 1-89 7.4 7.5 7.1 2-89 7.5 7.4 7.1 5-89 7.5 7.4 4-84 1-85 6.8 7.5 5*689.5 5*747.7 5*806.8 IN IT IA L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS DECEMBER 20» 1989 D IS P O S A B L E P E R S O N A L IN C O M E IN 1982 D O L L A R S (C o m p o u n d e d A n n n a l R a t e s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 1-85 2.1 2-85 5.5 8.9 5-85 2.1 2.1 -4.5 4-85 2.7 2.8 -0.1 4.4 1-86 5.6 4.0 2.4 5.9 7.4 2-86 4.0 4.4 5.5 6.0 6.8 6.2 2-86 5-86 IN IT IA L QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 BILLIO N S OF DOLLARS 1-88 4-87 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 2*509.4 2*565.5 2*555.4 2*562.8 2*609.2 2*648.6 5-86 5.2 5.4 2.5 4.0 5.9 2.2 -1.7 4-86 5.0 5.1 2.1 5.5 5.5 1.9 -0.2 1.4 1-87 5.1 5.2 2.4 5.6 5.4 2.4 1.2 2.7 4.0 2-87 2.1 2.2 1.5 2.2 1.8 0.7 -0.6 -0.2 -1.0 2»657.5 2 »646.2 2*672.5 2*652.5 -5.8 5-87 2.6 2.6 1.9 2.7 2.5 1.7 0.8 1.5 1.5 0.2 6.7 4-87 5.0 5.1 2.5 5.5 5.1 2.5 1.9 2.7 5.0 2.7 7.2 7.8 1-88 5.1 5.2 2.7 5.4 5.5 2.8 2.5 5.0 5.5 5.2 6.4 6.2 4.6 2*675.6 2*726.2 2*757.2 2-88 5.1 5.1 2.7 5.5 5.2 2.7 2.5 2.9 5.2 5.0 5.5 4.9 5.5 2.4 5-88 5.2 5.2 2.8 5.4 5.4 5.0 2.6 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.5 4.9 5.9 5.6 4.9 4-88 5.2 5.5 2.9 5.5 5.4 5.1 2.8 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.1 4.8 4.0 5.8 4.6 4.5 1-89 5.4 5.5 5.2 5.7 5.7 5.4 5.1 5.6 5.9 5.8 5.5 5.1 4.5 4.5 5.2 5.4 6.6 2-89 5.5 5.4 5.0 5.5 5.5 5.2 2*9 5.4 5.6 5.5 4.7 4.5 5.9 5.8 4.1 5.9 5.7 0.8 5-89 5.5 5.4 5.1 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.0 5.4 5.6 5.6 4.7 4.5 4.0 5.9 4.2 4.0 5.9 2.6 4.4 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 2*775.5 2*806.4 2*855.9 2*881.7 2*887.6 2*919.2 I N I TIAL Q U A R T E R P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. LOU I S D E C E M B E R 20» 1989 18 C O R P O R A T E PROFITS AFTER TAXES ( C o a p o a i H M A n n u a l R a t « of C h a n g * ) TERMINAL Q UARTER INITIAL QUARTER «-»« l-M 1-85 -59.4 2-tS -20.4 4. 3-85 -9.5 10. 5-85 2 -tS *-I S 1-«« 2-tt !-•« 4-« « l-»7 2-« 7 >-17 «-«7 1-M 2-M t-M «-M 1-»» 2-»» BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 122.8 124.2 17.1 129.2 4-85 -2.9 15. 1-8« -15.4 -8. -11.9 -25.« -51.4 2-8« -15.9 -7. -10.5 -18.1 -52.4 -5 9 5-8« -9.9 -5. -5.4 -10.5 -18.« 5 4 18*5 4-8« -«.8 1-87 -2.5 5. 2-87 0.1 5-87 2*5 4-87 2.5 7. 1-88 4.4 9» 2-88 5.5 9. 5-88 «.0 10. 4-88 «.0 10. 19.9 -1.7 155.2 112.9 -5.1 -10.5 111.2 115.9 18.0 9 7 18.4 18.8 1« 4 24.9 28.5 121.0 151.4 5.5 1.1 5. 5.9 4.4 2.1 18 4 25.4 27.9 52.7 2 « .7 7. 8.2 7.1 5.4 19 9 25.9 28.0 51.2 27.4 7.5 «.5 4.9 17 1 21.5 22.2 25.1 18.1 14.1 1.« 9.« 8 .9 7.7 19 0 25.1 25.9 25.0 21.7 20.1 1«.S 10.4 9.8 8.8 19 0 22.5 25.2 25.9 21.1 19.7 17.1 25.« 18.7 10.8 10.5 9.4 18 7 21.8 22.2 22.7 20.2 19.0 1«.8 22.5 17.5 16.0 10.4 9.9 9.1 17 4 20.1 20.5 20.5 18.0 1«.« 14.5 17.9 15.5 10.7 -2.5 59.1 159.4 148.5 28.1 148.9 55.0 159.9 1««»9 1-89 5.5 9. 9.5 8.8 8.0 15 4 17.« 17.5 17.4 14.9 15.4 11.1 15.1 8 .« 5.4 2-89 5.5 «. «.7 «.1 5.1 11 « 15.2 12.7 12.1 9.5 7.5 4.8 5.4 0.« -5.5 5-89 1.9 4. 4.9 4.2 5.2 8 9 10.2 9.« 8.8 «.1 4.0 1.4 1.5 4-84 1-8 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-8« 2-8« 5-8« 4-8« 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 175.2 5.7 175.« -4.5 175.« -9.2 -15.8 -25.8 1«1.1 -5.2 -7.0 -12.0 -17.2 -22.9 -19.9 152.4 1-M 2-88 0.5 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 IN IT IA L QUARTER PREPARED »V FEDERAL RESERVE SANK OP ST. LOUIS DECEMBER 20. 1M » H IS T O N A T IO N A L E s t i m o f C J u N IP A u r r e n t l y r e s p T h e a t e s t a b B u s i n 1 9 8 6 , e N a t i o n F o r W e a l t h D e p a r t m e n t l y t h e t a t i s r t h D f e t i c e r f o J u l y f o r l T n C o m m I P A a b O F t h e r e g A C C O U N T S u l a r p u b l i s h e d 1 9 8 4 a n d S u r v e y q i n u o f C r a r t e r l y t h e 1 9 8 5 D A T A J u a r e f o A c c o u n t s o f t h e 1 9 2 9 - 8 2 w r i t e U n r e s e n 1 9 8 9 B u s i n a r e i t e d p t a t i o n S u r v e y p u b l i s h e d u r r e n t s e r i e s p l y i n o f t h e e s s , u b l i s h e d S t a t e i n s . l e s . a t i o n W S O U R C E S P R O D U C T 1 9 8 8 N P r o d u c t ( B E - 5 4 ) , e r c e , i n a r e 1 9 8 3 , a n d i n f o r m i v i s i o r a t e s a n d a A N D s e r i e s D a t a 1 9 8 7 In c o m IN C O M E 1 9 8 6 - 8 9 :1 1 E s t i m a l o r r e s s . J u f u f o f o c t i v e l y . 1 9 2 9 - 8 2 : ______ S a n d l e s R IC A L a n d p B u r e a u a s h in g t o n , r i c e s , o f E c o n o m D . C . 19 ic 2 0 2 3 0 . t o A t h e n N a l y s i s , a t i o U n a l . S . In c o m e INVENTORIES COMPARED WITH MONTHLY MANUFACTURING AND TRADE SALES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED .7 2 72 68 6 8 64 64 60 60 56 56 .53 52 52 48 48 44 44 1 .4 0 40 36 36 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 SOURCE: «BEG IN N IN G IN 1982, 1986 1987 1988 1989 U.S.DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE INVENTORY DATA REFLECT CHANGES IN ESTIMATION PROCEDURES. SHADED AREAS REPRESENT PERIODS OF BU SIN ESS REC ESSIO N S. LATEST DATA PLOTTED: OCTOBER PRELIMINARY PREPARED 2 0 BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
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