Full text of National Economic Trends : January 1982
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n H T io n m (conom ic t r e h d s PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MONTH ENDING: D ecem b er 31, 1982 RELEASED: January 31, 1982 Economic activity recently has begun to reflect the slowing of monetary growth (Ml) from a 7.3 percent rate of advance over the four quarters of 1980 to a 5.0 percent rate of increase in the year ending in the fourth quarter of 1981. The recession that began in July 1981 has deepened, reflecting a continuation of the volatile pattern of spending and output over the past two years. Preliminary estimates show that real GNP declined at a 5.2 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter. Such a decline has been exceeded in only four quarters since 1947, two in the 1957-58 recession, the first quarter of 1975 and the second quarter of 1980. Real final sales declined by $30.7 billion from the first to the fourth quarter of 1981. The sharpest declines in output were in real residential fixed investment ($11.5 billion), real durable goods expenditures ($13.8 billion) and net exports ($14.2 billion). Real federal government purchases of goods and services rose $3.3 billion over the same period. Inventories have not yet been adjusted downward in line with the decline in real final sales. Inventory accumulation continued at an average of $11.4 billion (1972 prices) during the last three quarters. Economic activity has been extremely volatile since the end of 1979. The current recession comes on the heels of the very sharp one-quarter expansion of real GNP in the first quarter of this year. Prior to that expansion, the economy was recovering from the shortest recession and the deepest one-quarter fall in real GNP since early in this century. Spending and real output growth were as volatile in 1981 as in 1980. GNP growth ranged from a 19.2 percent rate in the first quarter of 1981 to a 2.7 percent rate in the last quarter of 1981. Since 1947, such a range during the four quarters of a calendar year was exceeded only during the rapid recovery and expansion from the recession trough in early 1958. Despite temporary surges in activity over the last two years, real output was only 0.3 percent higher at the end of 1981 than at the end of 1979. In December, 8.9 percent of the civilian labor force was unemployed, the highest level since mid-1975. Over the last two years, unemployment has reflected the volatile pattern of spending and output. From December 1979 to mid-1980, the unemployment rate rose from 6.0 percent to 7.6 percent. Subsequently, the rate declined to 7.3 percent in February 1981, rose to 7.6 percent in May, dropped to 7.0 percent last July, then climbed sharply. The rate of price increases has continued to slow recently, largely because the effects of the 1979-80 energy price increases have dissipated and, to an extent, due to the beginning of the adjustment to slower money stock growth. The GNP implicit price deflator rose at an 8.6 percent rate over the year ending in the fourth quarter, sharply below the 9.8 percent increase in the prior four quarters. Consumer and producer prices have shown a more marked deceleration. The consumer price index rose at a 5.3 percent rate from September to December and at an 8.9 percent rate for the year ending in December. In the previous year, consumer prices rose 12.4 percent. Similarly, producer prices have slowed from an 11.9 percent increase in the year ending in December 1980 to 7.0 percent in the year ending in December 1981. Over the final three months of 1981, these prices slowed to a 5.4 percent rate of increase. T O T A L C I V I L I A N EMPLOYMENT CQMPOUNOED ANNUAL R AT ES QF CHANGE T ERM IN AL MONTH 5-8 0 6 -8 0 6 -8 0 7 -8 0 8 -8 0 9 -8 0 10-80 1 1-60 IN ITIA L MONTH 1-61 2 -8 1 12-8 0 THOUSANDS OF PERSONS 3 -81 4 -81 5 -6 1 6 -61 7 -9 1 8-81 9 -8 1 1 0 -6 1 11-0 1 9 6,7 00 -4 .1 9 6.999 7-80 -0 .7 2 .7 8-80 -0 .5 1 .4 0 .0 9— 80 0 .2 1 .7 l.l 2 .2 1 0 -8 0 0 .2 1 .3 0 .9 1 .3 11-80 0 .5 1 .4 1.1 1 .4 1*0 1.7 12-80 0 .3 1.0 0 .7 0 .9 0 .4 0 .5 9 7 ,1 00 9 7.206 0 .3 9 7 .3 39 -0 .7 97,2 82 9 7,6 96 1 -8 1 0 .9 1.6 1.4 1 .7 1.6 2.0 2 .2 5.2 2-81 1.1 1 .8 1.6 1 .9 1. 9 2.2 2 .4 4 .0 2 .9 3 -81 1 .6 2 .3 2 .2 2 .5 2 .6 3 .0 3 .3 4 .7 4 .5 6.1 4. 1 5 .3 5 .3 6 .6 9 7.9 27 9 8,412 98,976 4-81 2 .1 2 .T 2 .7 3 .1 3 .2 3 .7 5 -81 2 .2 2 .8 2 .8 3 .1 3.2 3 .6 3 .9 4 .9 4*8 5*5 5 tl 3*2 6 -f c l 1.2 1 .7 1.6 1 .7 1 .7 1 .8 1.9 2 .3 1*7 1*4 -o .i -3 * 5 -9 *7 2 .2 2*2 2 .4 2 .5 3 .0 2 .6 2* 6 1*7 -0*1 -1 .6 7 .2 9S*9*2___ 2 .0 2.0 2*1 2.2 2*6 2.2 2.1 -0 .1 -1 ^ . 3*4 90.9 44 -lt7 . -2t? -0 .5 . —4*_1 Z lt? -1 * 5 -2* 4 “ O r 5 .. - ? t Q -**3 7*1 7-81 1 .6 2 .1 2 .0 8-81 1 .5 1 .9 1 .8 9 -81 0 .9 1 .2 1 .1 1 .2 1.1 1.2 1 .1 1.4 0* 9 0*6 1 0 -8 1 0 .8 1 .1 1.0 1 .1 1 .0 1.0 1.0 1 .2 0 .7 0 .4 —0 1 3 99.2 35 98,392 90*2.70 1 1 -8 1 0 .6 0 .9 0 .8 0 .8 0 .7 0 .8 0 .7 0*8 0 .4 0*1 -0 .6 -1** -2 .4 -0 .9 -2 .8 -3 .7 -1 .5 -2 * * 1 2 -8 1 0 .0 0 .3 0. 1 0 .1 0.0 -0 .0 -0 .1 -o .i —0 . 6 -0 * 9 -1 * 7 -2 * 7 - 3 »5 -2 .4 -4 .2 -5 .2 -4 .3 -6 . 1 5-80 6— 80 7 -8 0 8 -8 0 9-80 10-80 11-6 0 12-8 0 1-81 2 -81 3-81 4-81 5- 81 6 -8 1 7 -6 1 8 -8 1 9 -61 IN ITIA L _ 9 0.2 17 -0 *ÌL 1 0-6 1 96 .0 2 5 ~9*8 97 a I06_ 11-6 1 MONTH PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT COMPOUNDED ANNUAL R AT ES OF CHANGE IN ITIA L TERMIN AL MONTH 5-8 0 6 -8 0 6-80 7-8 0 8 -80 9 -6 0 10-60 11-60 1 2-$0 1 -61 rtONTH 3 -8 1 2 -81 THOUSANDS OF PERSONS 4 -81 5 -6 1 6 -6 1 7 -6 1 8 -8 1 9 -0 1 10-8 1 11-61 9 0,007 -4 .7 7 -80 -3 * 2 -1 .7 8-80 -1 * 0 0 .9 3*5 9 -8 0 0*0 1 .7 3 .4 10-80 0 *6 1.9 3 .2 3 .0 2.8 U —60 0 .9 2 .0 3.0 2 .8 2.6 2.4 1 2 -8 0 1.0 1 .9 2 .7 2 .4 2.2 1 .9 1*4 1 -8 1 1.1 1 .9 2 .5 2 .3 2 .1 1 .9 1*6 1*9 2-81 1.2 2 .0 2 .5 2 .3 2.1 2 .0 1.8 2.1 2*2 3 -e i 1 .2 1 .9 2 .3 2 .2 2.0 1. 8 1.7 1*8 1 .7 1 .2 4-81 1 .2 1 .8 2 .2 2 .1 1.9 1 .8 1.6 1*7 1*6 1.3 6 9,9 60 9 0,2 19 3 .3 9 0,4 61 90,6 68 9 0,044 90,949 91,091 9 1,258 9 1,3 47 91.450 1*5 5-81 1.2 1 .8 2 .1 2 .0 1. 8 1*7 1.6 1.6 1 .6 1.3 1 .4 1*4 6-81 1.2 1 .7 2 .0 1 .9 1. 7 1*6 1.5 It 5 1.4 It 2 It 2 1*0 Qt7 7-81 1 .4 1.8 2 .1 2 .0 1 .9 1 .8 1 .7 1*8 1 .7 1.6 1 .8 1*9 2*1 3 .5 8-81 1 .3 1.7 2 .0 1 .9 1.7 1.6 1*6 1*6 1 .5 1.4 1*5 1*5 1*5 1 .9 9 1 ,5 64 9 1* 61 5 9 1,0 00 0 .3 91,9 01 9 -81 1 .3 1 .7 2 .0 1 .9 1 .7 1.6 1*6 1*6 1 .6 1.5 1 .5 1*5 1*5 1 .8 1 .0 1 .7 1 0 -8 1 1.1 1 .4 1.7 1 .5 1*4 1.3 1 .2 1*2 l.l 0 .9 0 .9 0 *8 0*7 .. Of 7 -0 .2 -0 .4 -2 .6 1 1 -8 1 0 .8 1.1 1 .3 1 .1 1 .0 0.8 0 .7 0*7 0 .5 0 .4 0 .2 0 ,1 -0 .1 -0 .3 -1 .2 -1 .7 -3 .4 -4 .3 0*5 0*4 0 .3 0 .1 -o .i -0 .2 “ 0 ,4 =St7_ - 0 . 9 -1 .8 -2 .3 -3 .5 -4 * 0 -3 * 8 10-80 11-80 1 2 -6 0 1-81 2 -8 1 3-81 4-8 1 5 -6 1 7 -61 8 -6 1 9 -8 1 1 0 -8 1 11-01 12-8 1 0 .5 0 .8 1.0 0 .8 0*7 5 -8 0 6— 80 7 -8 0 8 -8 0 9-80 IN ITIA L P- 6 -6 1 9 2,0 33 9 1.832 91 r4 9 9P 91.206P MONTH PR ELIMINAR Y PREPARED 8 Y F ED ER A L RESERVE BANK O F S T , LO U IS JAN U A R Y 8 . 19 82 2 EMPLOYMENT RATIO SCALE MILLIONS OF 1974 RATIO PERSONS 1975 SEASONALLY 1976 1977 MILLIONS ADJUSTED 1978 1979 1980 SOURCE: P E R C E N T A G E S ARE A NNUAL RAT E S OF C H A N G E FOR P E R I O D S LATEST DATA PLOTTED: 1981 U.S.DEPARTMENT PERSONS 1982 OF LABOR INDICATED. DECEMBER PRELIMINARY P R E P A R E D BY FE D E R A L UNEMPLOYMENT SEASONALLY PERCENT SCALE OF R E S E R V E BANK OF ST. L OUIS RATE ADJUSTED PERCENT 11. 0 10. 10 . 0 9. 9.0 8.0 7. 7.0 6 6. 0 . 5. 4 5.0 . 4.0 3. 3.0 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 SOURCE: PE R C E N T U.S. 1981 DEPARTMENT 1982 OF LABOR OF C I V I L I A N LA B O R F ORCE LATEST DAT A PLOTTED: DECEMBER P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L 3 RESERVE BANK OF ST. L OUIS CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR A U . URBAN CONSUMERS» SEASONALLY ADJUSTED _____________________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE_____________________ TERMINAL___________________________ ______________________________________ I N I T I A L MONTH_______________ ____________________________________________________1967*100 MONTH 7-BO - H i 5-BO 9-BO 10-B O 1 1 - 6 0 12- B O 2-61 3 -6 1 1- 6 1 4-61 5-61 6-61 7-61 8-61 9 - 6 1 1 0 -6 1 11-6 1 6-BO 12 . 4 7- 8 0 6.6 1*0 e- 8 o 7 .6 5.2 9.6 9-80 9.0 7.8 11 .4 13.3 10-80 9.8 9.1 12 .0 13 .2 13.1 n -8 o 10. 5 10*1 12*5 13.5 13*6 24 7. 1 24 9 .0 25 1. 6 25 4. 2 257*0 14*0 12-8 0 10 .7 10.5 12.5 1 3 .2 13.2 13*2 12*3 1-81 10. 5 10 .3 1 1 .9 12.4 12*1 11. 8 10*7 9*1 2-8 1 10 .7 10.5 11.9 12.3 12*1 11*9 11*2 10.6 12 .1 25 9.5 2 6 1 .4 26 3 . 9 3-81 10 .4 10.2 1 1 .4 11*6 11*4 11 .0 10.3 9.6 9 .8 7*5 4— 81 9 .9 9.6 10 .7 10.8 10.4 10*0 9.2 B*4 8*2 6.3 2 6 5. 5 5.1 2 6 6. 6 ?-91 9t § 9.5 10*4 10*5 10*2 9*8 9*1 8*4 8*3 7*0 6 .7 8*4 6- 8 1 9.7 9.5 10 .3 10.4 10*0 9 .6 9.0 8*5 8*4 7*5 7 .4 8.6 8.8 7-01 19*1 9*9 10*7 10*8 10*5 10*2 9.8 9*4 9 .5 9*0 9 .3 10 .8 12.0 15*2 e -ci . 19 .1 _ie*,7_ io * e 10.5 10*3 9*9 9*6 9*6 9*2 9 .6 10.7 11*5 12*8 1 0 .6 5-3 1 10*4 10*3 11*0 _ n * i 10.9 10*7 10 .4 10.1 10*3 10*0 10.4 11.5 12.3 13*5 12.7 14.0 10-61 10*0 9 .9 10 .5 10.6 10.4 10 *1 9*8 9.6 9*6 9* 3 9*5 10.3 10.7 11*2 9 .9 9 .5 4.4 5 .3 _ _ 246.9 11-61 . 12-8 1 2 6 8. 4 27 0. 3 273 . 5 275 . 8 279 . 0 9 .8 _?.7 10 *2 10.3 10*1 9* 8 9*5 9*2 9*3 8* 9 9.1 9.7 9.9 10.1 8 .9 8.4 9 *6 9*4 9*9 10*0 9*7 9*5 9*2 8*9 8*9 8*6 8*7 9.1 9*2 9.3 8.2 7.6 5 -8 0 6-80 7-80 8-8 0 9-80 10—00 11 -60 12-BO 1-8 1 2- 6 1 3-61 4-81 5-81 6-61 7-61 8- 8 1 2 80.0 6*2 9—61 10 - 8 1 281 .4 11 -81 I N I T I A L MONTH PREPARED BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS JANUARY 2 2 . 1982 PRODUCER PRIC E IN D E X , F I N I S H E D GOODS - SEASONALLY ADJ UST ED ___________________COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES QF CHANGE_________________ IN ITIA L T ERMI NAL MONTH £V~ Hi, 6-80 10 . 3 7-80 16 . Ì 6-dC 7-ac 9 - t i. 10-80 11-80 12-80 1-81 2-81 3-81 4-81 16 •Cl 19 . 0 15.5 \2 . 7 13.5 9.3 10-80 12 . 6 13 . 2 10.2 li-ac I Z •W 12.3 9.8 12-eo 10 ♦ 9 1 0. 9 8.7 1- 81 11 t 3 11.5 2-81 11 t 1 8-81 9-81 10-81 11-81 252.0 252.7 1 2. 0 255. 1 tì.O 1 0 *4 tì.ti 256*9 7.1 8.3 6.5 4.3 9.7 8.0 9.9 9.2 9.5 14.9 11.2 9.7 8.8 9.9 9.3 9.5 12.2 7.6 257.8 260.8 262.8 9.6 266.0 11 11> 1 i .7 10.4 9.7 10 . 8 10*6 11.0 13.3 12.6 15.6 ] 1. 4 11-5 1C . 4 9.7 10.7 10.5 10.8 12.5 11.7 12.7 5-8 1 1\<. 6 1 0. 9 9.8 9* 1 9.9 9.6 9.7 10.8 9.9 9.9 7.2 4.6 1 1(J . 4 10.5 9.4 5.3 10 7-8 1 7-81 3* 4-8 1 ¿-8 6-81 249.0 a-fìQ 3-8 5-81 244.8 22.6 9-80 1 8-Lu 1967 ■ 100 MONTH 1 a .8 9.4 9. 1 9.2 9.9 10.0 9.1 8.9 6.8 268*1 269. 1 270*4 6.0 10 . c 9.0 8. 5 9.0 8.7 8.6 9.3 8 .4 8.1 6.3 5.2 5.5 5.0 a-ai 9. 5 9.5 8.5 8. 0 8 .4 8.0 8.0 8.4 7.5 7.2 5.6 4.5 4.5 3.8 2.7 9-81 V *0 8.9 8.0 7.4 7.8 7.4 7.2 7.6 6.7 6.3 4.8 3.8 3.6 2.8 1*8 10-8 1 H. 9 8.8 7.9 7.4 7.7 7.3 7.2 7.5 6.7 6.3 5.1 4.3 4.2 3.8 3.4 3.8 6.8 n -8 1 8. 7 8.6 7.8 Y.3 7-t> 7.3 7. 1 7.4 6.7 6.3 5.2 4.6 4 .6 4.3 4.1 4 .6 6.6 6.3 275.2 17-81 8 .4 .. 3 . 3 7.5 7.0 7.J 6.9 6.8 7.0 6.3 6.0 5.0 4.4 4 .4 4 .1 3.9 4.2 5.4 4 . 7 ___3*1 275.9 5 - . BO 6 — 80 7-80 8—8 ^ 9-80 10-80 11- 80 12-80 1- 8 1 2-81 3-81 4-81 5-81 6 -81 7-81 8-81 9-81 IN ITIA L 271*5 272*1 0.9 272*3 273*8 10-81 11-81 MONTH PREPARED BY FEDE RAL J A N U ARY 1 5 . 1982 4 RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS RATIO PR I C E S SCALE RAT I 0 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED I 9 6 7 - 1 0 0 SCALE I 9 6 7 - 1 0 0 CPI - U FOR ALL URBAN CONSUMERS percentages latest are a nn ua l D*TA PLOTTEO. rates of c han ge for peri ods indicated, DECEMBER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. RATIO SCALE PRODUCER PRICES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1 9 6 7 - 1 0 0 RATIO LOUIS SCALE 1 9 6 7 - 1 0 0 PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIODS I NOI CATEO. LATEST DATA PLOTTED. DECEMBER PREPAAEO BY FEDERAL RESERVE 0ANK OF ST. 5 LOUI S PRQOUCER PRICE INDEX, FINISHED CONSUMER FOOOS - SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ------------------------------ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES QF CHANGE_________________________ -IfcKMl NAL-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------INITIAL HQttlH________________________________________________________________ MONTH au .-CLTttU.... i-ttU Q—flu i "b U . i u - a u . 1 1 - ÜU 12.-&Q ¿-81 5-81 v - a i 10-81 11-01 3 - B1 . , 4 - e i &-BL_ 7 - B L 1-fil . 6-80 W 7 . 54.D 240*6 8 —8 ü 31 . 2 45.3 37.Û 9-ao 24 . 5 31.0 20 . 8 6.5 10-fl0 21 . 1 25.0 16.6 7.5 8.5 247.0 2 4 6 13 250,0 11-80 là .1 20.4 13.3 6.3 6.2 3.9 12^50 1? » 4 16.9 10.6 4.8 4,3 2,2 9 1-81 13 , 5 14 *4 8.9 4.0 3.4 1.8 0 17 250.6 250.9 ,5 1.0 251.1 249.5 2-81 1C , 9 11.5 6.4 2.0 1.2 ~<J . 6 ,1 -3.3 3-81 11 • I 11.5 7.1 3.4 2.9 1.8 1 t3 1.6 1.9 12.2 4-8 1 9.9 10.2 6.1 2.8 2.3 1.3 Q *8 0.8 0.8 5.2 -1.4 5-8 1 9•1 9.3 5.6 2.6 2.1 1.2 Q •a Û. 9 0.8 3.7 -0.2 6-8 1 8 • fl 9.0 5.6 2.9 2.5 1.8 1,5 1.7 1.8 4.3 1.8 3.4 5.9 9 .5 9.7 6.6 4.2 4.0 3.5 3.4 3.9 4.3 6.9 5.6 8.0 11.7 17.9 fl-ai 9 .1 9.2 6.4 4.1 3.9 3.5 3.4 3.8 4.2 6.3 5.1 6.8 8.9 10.4 9-81 .7-8 1 . L Q .Q 232.1 7 .Q _.7.-=ac _ ?fl . 3 « -2 -7.4 25U9 251.6 1.0 251.8 253.C 256.5 3.3 257.2 256.5 tt . ? 8.3 5.6 3.5 3.3 2.8 2 ,7 3.0 3.2 4.9 3.7 4.7 5.7 5.6 0.0 -3.2 1Û-ÛL . 7 .6 7.6 5.1 3.1 2.8 2.4 2 .2 2.4 2.6 3.9 2.7 3.4 4.0 3.5 -0.9 -3.0 -2.8 1 1- f l l (S » H 6.7 4.3 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.7 2.7 1.6 ?. 1 2.2 1. 5 -2.2 -4.0 —4 . 4 -5.9 ì ?- r t 1 6 .S 6 .4 4.2 2.4 2.1 1.7 l .5 1.6 1.7 2 .6 1.6 2.0 2. 1 1.5 -1.5 -2.7 -2.5 -2.3 1.4 5-180 6-80 8-80 9-80 10-80 l l - i BO 1 2 - 8 0 1- 81 2-81 3-81 4-81 6-81 7-81 8-81 9-81 10-81 11-81 .. 7-8 U 5-81 255.9 254.6 254.9 INITIAL MONTH PRODUCER PRICE INOEX, FINISHED GOODS, EXCLUDING FOOOS - SEASONALLY ADJUSTED __________________________ COMPOUNDSD ANNUAL RATES QF CHANGE_____________________________ TERMINAL MONTH INITIAL 1MONTH *ï- fill 7—8 L a-ao 9 —8Q i o - a lì 11 —8 0 1 2 - 8 0 1-81 2-81 3-81 1967 « 100 4-81 5-81 6 —8 1 7-81 8- 81 9- 81 10- 81 11-81 11.3 247.5 c 1 r- 12 . 6 13.9 a-ao 1 1,4 11.4 9.0 250.2 252.0 9-80 9 .1 8.3 5.6 2.4 10- 80 1C • Q 9.6 8.2 7.9 13.6 252 . 5 11 —8 Û 11 * ft 9.8 8.8 8.7 12.0 10.3 12- e c 9 t? 9.0 CD o 255.2 7.8 9.7 7.8 5.3 1-81 10 »6 10.5 9.9 10.1 12.1 11.6 12.2 19.7 262.3 13.2 17.4 265.4 14.0 1 7.1 15.8 16.5 14.0 16.2 15.1 15.1 13.7 12.2 12.5 14.0 12.6 11.8 9.5 11.7 1 1.4 11.6 12.7 11 . 3 10.4 5.9 6.3 10.6 10.3 10.3 11.0 9.6 8.5 6.6 4.3 3.8 1, 3 9.4 9.3 9.8 8.5 7.4 5.7 3.8 3.3 1 2- 81 11 « Ì 11.0 10.6 10.9 1 2. 7 12.5 -irfll 11 . 6 11.6 11.4 11.7 13.3 13.3 4-8 1 11 .ft 11 . 8 11. 6 12 . 0 13.4 13.3 5-8 1 11 11.2 11 . 0 1 1. 2 12.4 6-8 1 10 . 9 10.d 10.6 10.7 7-8 1 1 ;i 10.1 9 .Ú 9.d 9.2 9./ 9.8 B-ft 1 9,. 6 9.5 9 -ri 1 9,. 1 9.0 lG-fl 1 9 9.0 t 1 - Al 9, 12- t ì l ft, 5-8 ( 257.3 250.4 15.1 268.8 If -f 6-80 6- SÜ 271.7 5.4 ¿72.9 274.3 274.6 2.2 275. 1 8.6 8 .6 9.1 8.8 8.6 9.0 7.7 6.7 5.1 3.5 . 3.0 1 «9 2.2 2.2 8.7 8.7 9.2 8.8 8.7 9. Û 7.9 7.0 5.7 4.5 4.3 3 .8 4.6 5.8 9.5 9.1 « .a h.8 9.3 8.9 8.8 9.2 8.2 7.4 6.3 5.3 5.3 s, 1 6.0 7.3 10.0 10.4 a.a.. a .5 o. 5 fi . 9 a.6 8.4 8.7 7.8 7.0 6.0 5. 1 5.1 4 .9 5.6 6.5 7.9 7.1 7-80 8 —8 vj 9- 8 0 10- 80 11-80 12- 80 1- 8 1 2- 81 3-81 4-81 5-81 6-i 91 7- 81 8-81 9-81 6-80 . 275.6 2 7 7 . 7 ____ 280.0 3.9 280. 9 10-8 1 11-8 1 INITIAL MONTH P R E P A R E D BY FE DERAL RESERVE JANUARY 6 15. 1982 BANK OF ST. LO U IS INDUSTRIAL RATIO PRODUCTION SCALE RATIO 1967-100 SEASONALLY 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 P E R C E N T A G E S ARE ANNUAL R ATES OF C HANGE FOR P E R I O D S LATEST DATA PLOTTED: DEC E M B E R SCALE 1967-100 ADJUSTED 1980 1981 1982 INDICATED. PRELIMINARY PRPPARFD BY FEDE R A L R E S E R V E BANK OF ST. LOUIS IN O U S T R I A L PR ODUCTION COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES Qf CHANGE INITIAL MONTH TERMINAI MONTH 5-fiO 6-ftO - 18.3 7- 8 0 - 13.7 -8.9 ft —ft C -4.4 3.4 <i-ftû 7-8 0 8 —6 0 9-80 10-80 11- 80 1 2- 80 1-81 2-81 3- 81 4-81 5- 81 6-81 7- 81 8-81 9- 81 142*2 17.5 1. 3 a .8 18.9 20.2 4.7 11 .4 19.2 20. 1 19.9 11 - A n 7.7 1 3 . ft ?0.3 21.2 21.7 23.5 1 2 —8 0 8.C 13.1 18.2 18.3 17.7 16.6 10.1 1- 61 8.0 12.4 16.4 16*2 15.3 13.8 9,2 8.3 2-81 7.5 11.2 14.5 14.C 12.7 11.0 7.2 5.7 3*2 3-81 7.0 10.2 12.9 12.2 10.9 9.2 5.9 4.6 2*8 2*4 4 —ft 1 6.2 9.0 11.2 10.4 9.1 7.4 4.4 3.0 1*3 0*4 -1*6 5-ft 1 6.2 a .7 10.7 1Û. 8.7 7.2 4.7 3.7 2.6 2.4 2.4 6.5 /K-ft 1 5. f l a. 2.2 2.1 4.0 7 -ft 1 6.0 1 5.4 149*2 150.4 151.4 151.8 152.1 151*9 152.7 152*9 1*6 7.9 6.5 4.3 3.4 2.4 a.i 9.7 9.0 7.9 6.7 4.8 4.0 3.3 3.4 3.6 5.4 4.8 8*1 7.4 A . 8.0 7.0 5.8 4.0 3.2 2.5 2.4 2.4 3.4 2*4 2.8 -2*3 9-8 1 4 . G 5.7 6.9 6. 1 5.0 1.9 1.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.7 -0.5 -2*1 -3*4 -8.6 10-ft 1 7*6 4. 1 5.0 4.7 3.1 1.8 0.0 -1.0 -1.9 -2.6 -3.2 -3.5 -5.4 -7.1 -11*7 -16*0 -17*4 1 1 -ft! 1*? 2.5 1.7 7.4 1. 7 —G* 1 -1 .9 -2.9 -3.9 -4.7 -5.6 -6. 1 -8.1 -9.9 -13*9 - 1 7 . 5 —C . 2 0.9 1. 5 0.6 —Û . 6 -1.9 -3.7 -4. 7 -5.8 -6.7 -7.6 -8.4 -10.3 -12.2 5-8o 6-8C 7-8 0 9-80 10-80 11-80 12-80 1-81 2- 81 3-81 4-81 5-81 6-81 t CD 7 c 9.1 ì r * 14* cc 0 M 9.8 1?-ft 1 10-81 11-81 140.3 lft-flfl ft-ft 100 141.4 Û 6-fi 1967 • 3.7 153,9 153.6 151*6 -14*6. _ .14912 146*4P -18*9 - 2 0 . 3 - 1 5 * 7 - 1 8 * 8 - 2 0 * 2 -21*5 -22*6 7- 81 8- 81 9-81 ._143*3P 10- 81 11-81 INITIAL MONTH P - P R EL IM IN A R Y P R E P A R E D BY JAN U A R Y 1 5 . 7 FEDERAL 1982 RESERVE BANK OF ST. LO UIS PERSONAL RATIO SCALE TRILLIONS MONTHLY OF DOLLARS INCOME TOTALS AT SEASONALLY ANNUAL RATIO RATES TRILLIONS ADJUSTED OF SCALE DOLLARS 2.7 .0 0.9 197 4 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 SOURCE: 1981 1982 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED: DECEMBER PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS Pt RSONAL INCOME COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATE S OF CHANGE TERMINAL MONTH IN ITIA L 1 4.1 7 -6 0 8 -80 9 -60 O 7 .6 7 -80 6—60 f o 5-8 0 6 -b O 11-60 12 - « 0 1-61 2-61 B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES MONTH 1 3 -81 4-61 5 -6 1 6 -6 1 7 -61 9 -6 1 1 0-61 11-61 2 ,1 2 7 .1 2 1.0 2 ,1 6 1 .2 8 -8 0 12.9 1 5.7 10.6 9— 80 1 3.6 15.6 13.0 15.5 1 0 -8 0 14.2 1 5.9 14.2 16.1 2 ,1 7 9 .4 2 ,2 0 6 .7 16.7 2 ,2 34 .3 ii-e o 1 4.0 15.4 1 4.0 15.1 1 5. 0 13.3 12-80 13.5 1 4.6 1 3.3 14.0 1 3 .5 11.9 2 ,2 5 7 .6 10.6 2 ,276.6 1-61 13.5 14.4 1 3.3 1 3.9 1 3 .5 1 2.4 1 2.0 1 3.5 2 -81 13. 1 1 3.8 12.8 1 3 .1 1 2 .7 1 1.7 11.2 1 1.5 9 .5 3 -81 13.0 13.6 1 2.7 1 3.0 1 2 .6 11.6 1 1.4 11.7 10.8 12.1 4-81 12.4 12.9 12.1 1 2.2 1 1 .8 1 1 .0 1 0.5 1 0 .5 9 .6 9 .6 7 .1 12.0 1 2 .4 __L À » 6 1 1.7 1 1 .2 10.4 10.0 9 .8 9 .0 8.8 7 .1 7 .2 6 -81 1 1.7 1 2 .1 11.3 1 1.4 1 0 .9 1 0.2 9 .8 9 .7 8 .9 8 .8 7 .7 8 .0 8.9 7 -i U 12.2 1 2.6 1 1.9 12.1 1 1 .7 11.2 10.9 1 1 .0 1 0.6 lo .e 1 0 .4 1 1.6 1 3 .9 1 9 .0 6 -6 1 U f i U r « » 12,0 12.1 11 ,8 11,3 J l - 1 U .2 1 0.9 I I . 1 1 0 .9 11.9 13.5 15.8 1 2.7 9 -61 12. 1 12.4 1 1.8 1 1.9 11.6 11.2 U .7 12*0 11.4 1 1.5 U .2 iU i>_ H t 7 1 1 ,1 1 1,2 10.9 1 0.9 11.1 10.6 1 0.6 5—8 0 6 -6 0 7 -60 8 -8 0 1 1 -6 1 8 -8 1 2 ,30 0.7 2 ,3 1 8 .2 2 ,3 4 0 .4 2 ,35 3.8 2 ,3 6 7 .4 2 ,3 8 4 .3 2 ,4 1 9 ,2 2 ,4 4 3 .4 CO A 1 1.0 1 1 .0 10.7 1 0.9 1 0.7 1 1 .5 1 2 .6 1 3.8 1 1 .3 9 . 8 _ 1 0 . 7 1 0.5 1 0.5 10.1 1 0.2 9 .9 1 0.4 11.1 1 1.6 9 .3 7 .6 5.4 i<?T^ 1 0,2 10,2 9 ,6 9 .9 9 .6 9 .9 1 0 ,4 10* 7 8*7 7 ,4 6*2 7 .1 1 0 .3 9 .8 9 .6 9 .5 9 .1 9 .1 $ .7 8 .9 9.2 9 .2 7 .4 6 .1 4 .9 4 .6 V—60 1 0-60 1 1-60 12-60 1 -8 1 2-61 3 -81 4 -8 1 5 -6 1 6-6 1 7 -61 8-81 9-61 1 0-6 1 IN ITIA L 2 ,4 6 2 .6 2 ,47 3.5 2.4 8 7 * 6 2. 2 2 . 4 9 2 . IP 1 1 -6 1 / MONTH P - PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FE D E R A L RESERVE BANK O F S T . JANUARY 1 9 , 19fi2 8 LO U IS RETAIL RATIO SALES SCALE BILLIONS OF 1974 RATIO DOLLARS 1975 seasonally 1976 1977 BILLIONS ADJUSTED 1978 1979 1980 OF 1981 SCALE DOLLARS 1982 SOURCE; U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED: NOVEM&ER, DECEMBER ADVANCE ESTIMATE PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS R E T A IL SALES CQ HPPUMPED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE IN ITIA L TFftMINAI MONTH S-fiQ 7—ft Q a-R o 9-8 0 io -a o 1 1-60 1 2-80 1-81 MONTH 3 -81 2 -fil M l L L I O N S OP DOLLARS 4 -6 1 5 -6 1 6 -81 7 -61 8-81 9 -6 1 1 0 -6 1 7 7 .8 4 3 7-ftO 31 . 2 2ft.6 R-RO 71 - 9 1 6.3 5 .2 9 -8 0 19.5 1 5 .1 a. a 1 2 .6 1 0-80 1 8.5 1 5.0 1 0.8 1 3 .7 14.8 7 9 .4 9 1 7 9.829 80.620 81*552 82.764 1 1-fiO 1ft. 7 1 5 .a 12.9 1 5.5 1 7 .1 19.4 1 2-80 1 7.4 14.9 12.3 1 4.2 1 4 .8 1 4.7 1 0.3 1-81 1 9.3 1 7.4 1 5.6 1 7 .8 1 9 .1 2 0.6 2 1 .2 33. 2 83.443 85.463 1 7.8 1 6.3 1 8.3 1 9 .4 2 0.6 21.0 26 .8 2 0 .6 1 00 86.810 19.5 1 8 .6 17.1 15.7 1 7 .3 1 8 .1 18.8 1 8 .6 21« 5 1 6.0 4 -8 1 1 4 .3 12.5 10.8 1 1 .5 11.4 1 0 .8 9 .2 8. 9 1 .8 —6 . 4 - 2 1 . 5 8 7 .6 0 8 11.6 85 .85t> 8 5 .5 0 1 5-81 1 2.5 1 0.8 9-1 9.6 9.2 8 .4 6.7 6 .0 0 .1 -5 .9 -1 3 .6 -4 .8 fe-fil 1 3.8 12.3 10.9 1 1 .5 1 1 .3 1 0.9 9 .8 9. ,7 5 .5 2.0 -1 .0 1 1.2 29.9 7— fll 12.7 11.2 9.9 10. 3 10.1 9 .6 8.4 8 . ,2 4.5 1.5 -0 .9 7 .1 13.7 -0 .5 fl-ftl 1 3.1 1 1.7 10.5 11.0 1 0 .8 10.4 9.5 9.,4 6.4 4.1 2 .7 9 .9 15.3 8 .6 _ 8 8 .5 9 1 9-fil 1 2 .3 11.0 9 .9 10.2 10.0 9.6 8 .7 8. ,5 5 .7 3 .8 2 .5 8 .1 1 1 .6 6.2 9 .6 1 .5 9. 7 a .4 7.2 7. 3 6.9 6.3 5. 1 4. ,6 1.9 -0 .3 -1.8 1 .9 3 .3 —2 . 5 -3 .1 -1 2 .4 -24. 4 ll-fli 9 .6 8.4 7.2 7.4 7.0 6.4 S .4 •». 2.5 0 .7 -0 .6 2 .8 4.1 -0 .4 -0 .4 -6 .0 -9 . 5 6 .2 -0- 1 3 .0 4 .1 0 .4 3 -6 1 4 -8 1 5 -6 1 6 -6 1 7 -6 1 8-81 9 -6 1 1 0-61 9 .4 8 .1 7 .0 7.2 6.8 6.3 5 -8 0 6 -8 0 7-80 8 -8 0 9 -8 0 10-60 4. ,9 2.7 1.0 11 -60 12 -6 0 1 -61 2 -6 1 5.3 IN ITIA L P - P R EL IM IN A R Y _E- ESTIM ATED eij3e4 87,350 1 8 .4 i n -fli 12 — 81 1 1 -8 1 3 3 . ft 00 I (N 1 1 h-RO 6 -a o 88.699 86.660 8 7 .2 3 3 P 11—8 1 MONTH _ PREPAREO BY F ED ER A L RESERVE BANK O F S T . LO U IS J A W A H Y 1 4 . 19ft? 9 HOURLY COM PE N S AT IO N, P R I V A T E B U S IN E S S SECTOR COMPOUNDED ANNUAL R AT ES OF CHANGE TER MINA L QUARTER 1-77 2-77 3 -77 4 -77 1 -7 8 2 -78 3 -78 6 .9 * 1 1 -77 CD IN ITIA L 4 -7 6 197 7 * 100 QUARTER 1 -79 2 -79 3-79 4 -79 1 -6 0 2 -80 3 -8 0 4 -8 0 1-81 2 -8 1 9 7 .1 2 -77 7 .2 7 .6 3 -7 7 7 .6 8 .0 8 .3 4 -7 7 7 .4 7 .6 7 .6 1-78 7 .9 8 .1 8 .3 8 .3 9 .7 2 -lb 7 .9 8 .2 8 .3 8 .3 9.0 9 8 .9 100.9 6 .9 102.6 1 05.0 8.2 107 .1 3 -78 8 .1 8 .3 8 .4 8 .4 8 .9 8 .6 8 .9 4 -78 8 .2 8 .4 8 .6 8 .6 9 .1 8 .9 9 .2 9 .5 1— 7V 8 .6 8 .8 9 .0 9 .1 9 .6 9 .5 10.0 1 0.5 1 1.6 2 -79 8 .9 9 .1 9 .3 9 .4 9 .8 9.9 1 0 .3 10.7 11.4 1 1.2 3-79 8 .9 9 .1 9 .3 9 .4 9.7 9*7 1 0.0 1 0.3 10.6 1 0.2 4-79 8 .9 9 .0 9 .2 9 .3 9 .6 9 .6 9 .8 1 0.0 10.1 9 .6 8 .8 8 .5 1 -8 0 9 .0 9 .2 9 .3 9 .4 9.7 9 .7 9 .9 10.1 10.2 9 .9 9 .5 9 .7 1 0 .8 2 -8 0 9 .2 9 .4 9 .6 9 .7 1 0 .0 1 0.0 10.2 10.4 10.6 1 0.4 10.2 10.5 1 1. 5 109 .4 1 11.9 1 1 5 .0 118.1 1 20.7 9 .1 1 2 3 .2 1 26.4 130.1 9 .3 9 .4 9 .6 9 .7 9 .9 10.0 1 0.1 10.3 1 0.4 10.2 1 0.0 1 0.3 1 0 .9 4 -8 0 9 .2 9 .4 9 .5 9 .6 9*8 9 .8 1 0 .0 1 0 .1 10.2 1 0 .0 9 .8 1 0.0 1 0 .3 1 0.1 9 .1 8 .7 1 -8 1 9 .4 9 .5 9 .6 9 .7 10.0 1 0.0 10.1 1 0.3 1 0 .4 1 0.2 10.1 10.2 1 0. 6 1 0 .5 1 0 .0 10.2 11.7 2 -81 9 .4 9 .6 9 .7 9 .8 1 0 .0 1 0.0 <N 1 0.3 1 0.4 10.2 10. 1 10.3 1 0 .5 10.5 1 0.1 10.2 1 1 .0 10.4 3-81 9 .4 9 .6 9 .7 9 .8 9.9 10.0 1 0.1 1 0.2 1 0.3 1 0.1 10.0 10.1 1 0 .4 10.3 9 .9 1 0.0 1 0 .4 9 .8 9 .2 4-76 1 -77 2 -77 3 -7 7 4 -7 7 1-78 2 -7Ô 3-78 4-76 1 -79 2-79 3-79 4 -79 ¿ -6 0 3 -8 0 4— 8 0 1 -81 2 -8 1 o 3 -80 P• 1 2.2 o 9 .5 133.1 135.9 139.7 1 43.2 1 46.4 l ^ t T I ALQUAR tÉ* OUTPUT PER HOUR OF ALL PERSONS, P R IV A T E B USI NE SS SECTOR COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RA TE S OF CHAN&E TERMINAL QUARTER IN ITIA L 1 -77 2-77 3 -7 7 4 -77 1 -7 8 2 -78 3 -78 4 -7 8 QUARTER 1 -79 2 -79 19 77 * 100 3 -79 1 -77 5 .8 2 -7 7 2. 7 -0 .4 3 -77 3 .5 2 .4 4 -77 2 .1 0 .9 1.6 -2 .0 1 -7 8 1 .2 0 .1 0 .3 -2 .2 -2 .4 2-78 1 .2 0 .3 0.5 -1 .1 —0 . 6 1 .2 3-78 I. 1 0 .3 0 .5 -U . 7 -0 .3 0 .8 0 .4 4 -78 0 .9 0 .2 0 .3 -0 .6 -0 .3 0 .4 0 .0 -0 .4 1 -7 9 0 .7 0 .1 0 .2 -0 .7 -0 .4 0.1 -0 .3 -0 .6 -0 .8 2-79 0 .6 0 .1 0 .2 -0 .6 -0 .3 C. 1 -0 .2 -0 .4 -0 .4 0 .0 3-79 0. 5 -0 .0 0 .0 -0 .6 -0 .5 -0 .1 -0 .4 —0 . 6 -0 .7 -0 .6 4 -79 0. 3 -0 . 1 -0 .1 -0 .7 —0 . 6 -0 .3 -0 .5 -0 .7 -0 .8 ■I 4 -7 6 1-80 0 .4 0 .0 0 .0 -0 .5 -0 .3 -0 .1 -0 .2 -0 .3 -0 .3 -0 .2 -0 .3 0.2 4-79 1 -8 0 2 -8 0 4 -8 0 1-61 2 -6 1 9 9.5 9 9 .4 5 .3 1 00.7 100.2 9 9 .6 9 9 .9 1 00.0 9 9.9 9 9 .7 -1 .2 1 CO 9 9 .7 9 9 .4 -1 .2 9 9.1 1.6 9 9.5 2 -80 0 .3 -O . 1 -0 . 1 -0 .6 -0 .4 -0 .2 -0 .4 -0 .5 -0 .5 -0 .5 -0 .6 -0 .4 0.0 -1 .6 3— 80 0 .4 -0 .0 0 .0 -0 .4 -0 .3 -0 .1 -0 .2 -0 .3 -0 .3 —0 . 2 —0 . 2 0 .0 0 .4 -0 .2 1.2 4 -8 0 0.3 -0 . -0 .5 1 -8 1 0. 5 1 0 .2 -o . 1 0.2 99.1 9 9.4 -0 .4 -0 .2 -0 .3 -0 .4 -0 .4 -0 .3 -0 .4 -0 .2 0 .0 -0 .5 0 .0 -1 .2 -0 . 1 0.0 0.2 0 .1 0.1 0 .2 0 .3 0 .3 0 .6 1.0 0 .8 1.6 1 .8 4 .9 1 99.1 100.3 0.4 0. <♦ 0. 0 .3 0 .5 0 .4 0 .4 0.5 0 .6 0 .7 1.0 1.3 1 .3 2 .0 2 .3 4 .1 3.2 0.6 0 .3 0.4 0 .0 0.2 0 .4 0 .3 0 .3 0 .4 vTV 0.8 1.0 0 .9 1 .5 1 .5 2 .4 1.2 -0 .8 4 -7 6 1 -77 2 -7 7 3 -7 7 4-77 1-7Ô 2-7Ò 3 -78 4 -7 8 2 -7 9 3 -79 4-79 1 -80 2 -8 0 3 -80 4 -80 1 -81 2 -6 1 t —79 O 0. 3 -81 O 2-81 lA 7 3 -80 1 0 1 .1 100.9 I N I T I AL QUARtER PREPARED BY F ED ER A L RESERVE BANK O F S T . NOVEMBER 2 5 , 1981 10 LO U IS PRODUCTIVITY, RATIO COMPENSATI ON, AND LABOR COSTS SCALE RATIO 197 3 1 9 74 1 975 1 9 7 6 1977 1977 - 1 0 0 197 8 197 9 S OURC E ! P E R C E N T A C E S A RE LATEST DATA ANNUAL PLOTTED. RATES 3 RD OF C H A N C E FOR P E R I O D S _________ U. S. 19 8 0 198 1 DEPARTMENT OF LABOR ST. LOUIS INDICATED. O UA RT E R PREPARED TE RMI NA L SCALE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1 9 7 7 - 1 0 0 BY F E D E R A L RESERVE B A NK OF U N I T LABOR COSTS » P R IV A T E B U S IN E S S SfcCTOR ____ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE _____________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L QUARTER_______________________________________________________________________1977 * 100 quarter 4 - 7 6 1 - 7 7 2 - 7 7 1 - 7 7 1 . 2 2 - 7 7 4 . 4 7 . 6 3 - 7 7 3 . 9 5 . 2 2 . 8 3 - 7 7 4 - 7 7 1 - 7 8 2 - 7 8 3 - 7 8 4 - 7 8 2 - 7 9 3 - 7 9 4 - 7 9 i-eo 2-ttO 3-80 4 - 8 0 1 - 8 1 2 - 8 1 9 7 . 7 1 9 9 . 5 10 0.2 4 - 7 7 3 . 6 . 5 5 . 9 9 . 1 I-7 6 . 5 7 . 9 8 . 0 1 0 . 6 1 2 .2 2 - 7 6 6 . 7 7 . 8 7 . 8 9 . 6 9 . 8 7 . 4 3 - 7 6 6 . V 7 . 8 7 . 9 9 . 2 9 . 2 7 . 7 8 . 1 4 - 7 b 7 . 3 8 . 2 8 . 3 9 . 4 9 . 5 8 . 6 9 . 1 1 - 7 9 7 . 8 8 . 7 8 . 8 9 . 9 1 0 . 0 9 . 5 1 0 . 2 1 1 . 3 1 2 . 3 2 - 7 9 8 . 2 9 . C 3 - 7 9 8 . 3 V . 4 - 7 9 8 . 5 1 - 8 0 2 - 8 C 1 1 0 5 . 4 1 0 7 . 3 1 0 9 . 4 1 0 . 2 1 1 2 . 1 1 1 5 . 4 1 0 . 1 1 0 .2 9 . 8 1 0 . 4 1 1 .2 1 1 . 7 1 1 . 2 9 . 2 1 0 . 1 1 0 .2 9 . 9 1 0 . 4 1 1 . 0 1 1 . 2 1 0 . 7 1 0 .2 9 .2 9 . ^ 1 0 . 1 0 .2 9 . 9 1 0 . 3 1 0 . 8 1 0 . 9 1 0 . 4 1 0 . 0 9 . 9 8 . 5 V . 1 9 . 3 9 . 9 1 0 . 0 9 . b 1 0 . 1 1 0 . 5 1 0 . 5 1 0 . 1 9 . 7 9 . 4 9 . 0 8 . 9 9 . 5 9 . 7 1 0 . 3 1 0 .5 1 0 . 3 1 0 . 6 1 1 . 0 11.1 1 0 . 9 1 0 . 8 1 1 . 0 1 1 .6 1 9 . 1 0 2 . 4 1 1 1 8 . 5 1 2 1 . 4 1 2 4 . 3 1 2 7 . 0 1 4 . 2 1 3 1 . 3 ______ 3 -B O 8 . 9 9 . 4 9 . 6 1 0 . 1 1 0 .2 1 0 . 0 1 0 . 3 1 0 . 6 1 0 . 7 1 0 . 4 1 0 . 3 1 0 . 3 1 0 .4 11. 2 8 . 2 1 b 1 - 7 9 8 . V 9 . 4 9 . Ó 1 0 . 1 1 0 .2 1 0 . 0 1 0 . 3 1 0 . 5 1 0 . 5 1 0 . 3 1 0 .2 1 0 . 2 1 0 .2 10.6 8 . 9 9 . 6 1 - 8 1 8 . b 9 . 3 9 . 4 9 . 9 10.0 9 . 8 1 0 .0 1 0 . 2 10 .2 9 . 9 9 . 7 9 . 7 9 . 6 9 . 8 8 . 3 8 . 4 7 . 2 2 - 8 1 8 . 7 V . 1 9 . 2 9 . 7 9 . 7 9 . 5 9 . 7 9 . 8 9 . 8 9 . 5 9 . 3 9 . 2 9 . 1 9 . 1 7 . 8 7 . 7 6 . 8 6 . 5 3 - 8 1 8 . 8 9 . 2 9 . 3 9 . 7 9 . 7 9 . 6 9 . 7 9 . 9 9 . 8 9 . 6 9 . 4 9 . 3 9 . 2 9 . 3 8 . 3 8 . 4 8 . 0 8 . 3 1 0 . 3 *»-76 1 - 7 7 2 - 7 7 3 - 7 7 4 - 7 7 1-7 Ô T "-7 b 4 - 7 S 1 - 7 9 2 - 7 9 3 - 7 9 4 -7 9 1 - 8 0 3 - 8 0 4 — 8 0 1 - 8 1 2 - 8 1 ~5=7 S" IN ITIA L 2-0 0 1 3 3 . 9 1 3 7 . 0 1 3 9 . 4 1 4 1 . 6 1 4 5 . 1 QUARTER PREPARED NOV EMBER 11 BY FEDfeRAL 25» 1981 RESÉRVt BANK O F ST* LUUIS GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN c u r r e n t d o l l a r s COirOUNDEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE 1-77 3-77 2-77 1-78 4 -7 7 2- 7 8 4-78 3 -7 8 1 -7 9 2-79 4-79 3—79 2- e o 1-60 3—80 4-8 0 12 .5 ^ -77 1 2 .5 12.5 -77 1 1 .0 10 . 3 8.1 2-81 8.6 9.1 1*9 50 .4 1*988 .6 2,032.4 10 .5 9 .9 2-78 1 2 .4 1 2 .4 1 2 .4 14 .7 20.5 2-78 1 2 .4 12.3 12.3 13.8 16 *2 11 .9 4-78 1 2 .8 12.9 13.0 14.2 16*0 13.8 15 .7 1-79 12 .8 12.9 12.9 13.9 15 *2 13. 4 14 .2 2-79 12.0 12 . 0 1 1 .9 12.6 13 .3 11 .5 11.4 9.2 5.9 3-7 9 12 .0 12 .0 1 1 .9 12.5 13.1 11.6 11 .6 10.2 9.0 12 .2 11 .7 11 .6 12.0 12 «5 11.2 11.0 9.9 9 .0 1 0 .5 8.8 2 ,1 2 9 .6 2,1 9 0 .5 2 ,2 7 1 .9 2 »340.6 12 .7 2,3 74.6 2* 444 .1 2 *4 96.3 4-79 11 .8 i-e o 11 .8 11 .8 11.7 12 .1 12.5 11 .4 11.3 10.4 9 .9 11 .2 10.7 12.6 2-8 0 10 .8 10.6 10 .5 10.7 10.9 9.7 9 .4 8.4 7.6 8.0 6.6 5.6 10 . 8 1 0 .7 10 .6 10.8 11 .0 10 .0 9 .7 8.9 8.3 8.8 7 .9 7.4 5*2 1 1 .8 9 .4 8.3 13.3 14 .9 3-80 1 -6 1 1»893.9 ¿-7 7 1-7 8 m L u w s op DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 3-81 I N I T I A L QUARTER TERMINAL 2* 5 7 1 . 7 2 * 56 4 .8 -l.l 2*637.3 2* 7 3 0 .6 1 1 .1 11 .0 1 0 .9 11.1 11.3 10 .5 10 .3 9.6 9 .2 9.6 9 .3 1 -8 1 11 .6 11.5 11.5 11.7 12*0 11 .2 11. 1 10.7 10 .4 11.1 10.9 11.3 10.9 15.3 17 .0 19.2 2-81 11 .2 11.1 1 1 .0 11.2 11. 4 10.7 10 .5 10 .0 9 .8 10.2 10 .0 10.1 9.7 12.5 12.8 11 .7 4 .7 10.4 10.1 10.3 10. 0 12 .3 12.4 11.6 8.0 11 .4 4-80 2* 85 3 .0 2* 88 5 .8 2 ,9 65.0 3-81 11 .2 11 .1 1 1 .0 11.2 11. 4 10.7 10.6 1 0 .2 9.9 4-81 10.7 10.6 10 .5 10.7 10.8 10.1 10 .0 9.5 9 .2 9 .6 9 .3 9 .3 8 .9 10.6 10 .4 9 .3 6.2 7.0 2 .7 1-77 2-77 3 -7 7 4 -7 7 1-78 2-7 8 3-7 8 4-78 1-79 2-7 9 3-79 4-79 i-eo 2-8 0 3—80 4-8 0 1-8 1 2-81 3-8 1 2.984.9P I N I T I A L QUARTER P - PRELIMINARY GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT I N 1972 DOLLARS __ COHFQUNOEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL QUARTER 1 -7 7 2-7 7 B I L L IO N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES I N I T I A L QUARTER 2-77 3-77 4-7 7 1-78 2- 7 8 3-7 8 4 -7 8 1-7 9 5 .3 2-79 3-7 9 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-8 0 4-80 1-8 1 2-61 3 -8 1 1* 36 3 .4 3-77 6 .0 6 .7 4-77 4 .5 4 .2 1.7 1,385.8 1 -7 8 4 .2 3.8 2.4 3.1 1 » 3 9 1 .5 1* 402.3 2-78 5 .1 5 .1 4.5 6 .0 9 .0 3 -7 8 4 .9 4.9 4 .4 5 .3 6. 4 3.9 4-78 5 .0 4 .9 4.6 5 .3 6.1 4.7 5.4 1- 7 9 4.9 4.8 4.5 5 .1 5 .5 4.4 4*6 1*432.8 1* 446 .7 1*465.8 1*4 79.9 3 .9 1,4 73.4 2-79 4.1 4 .0 3.6 3.9 4 .0 2.8 2.5 1.0 -1 .7 3-79 4.1 4.0 3.6 3 .9 4.0 3 .1 2.9 2.0 1. 1 4.1 4-7 9 3.8 3 .6 3.3 3.5 3.6 2.7 2.4 1. 7 1.0 2.3 0.6 1-80 3 .7 3.6 3.3 3.5 3.5 2.7 2.5 2.0 1.5 2.6 1.8 2-80 2.6 2.4 2.0 2 .0 1.9 1.1 0.7 -0 .1 -0 .9 -0 .7 -2 .2 -3 .6 -9 .9 3- 8 0 2 .6 2.4 2.0 2.1 2«rO 1.2 0.9 0.2 -0 .4 -0 .1 -1 .1 -1 .7 -4 .0 2.4 4—80 2.7 2.5 2.2 2*2 2.1 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.6 -0 .1 -0 .3 -1 .4 3.1 3 .8 1,4 86.2 1» 4 9 0 . 6 1*5 01 .9 3.1 1* 463 .3 1*4 71.9 1»485.6 1-81 3.0 2.9 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.1 1.9 1. 5 1 .2 1.7 1 .3 1.4 1.0 4 .9 6. 1 8.6 2- 8 1 2.8 2.6 2.3 2 .4 2.3 1.8 1.6 U2 0.9 1.2 0 .8 0.9 0 .5 3.2 3.5 3.4 -1 .6 3 -8 1 2.7 2.5 2.3 2 .3 2*2 1 .7 1.6 1.2 1 .0 1.3 0 .9 1.0 0.6 2*9 3*0 2*7 -o .i 1.4 4- 8 1 2.2 2.1 1 .8 1.8 1.7 1.2 UO 0.7 0.4 0.6 0 .2 0.2 -0 .2 1.5 1.3 0 .7 -1 .8 -2 .0 -5 .2 i-Y T 2-7 7 3-77 4 -7 7 1-78 2-te 3-7 8 4 -7 8 1—79 2-7 9 3-7 9 4—T 9 1-80 2-80 3-8 0 4—60 1-8 1 2-61 3-61 1»516.4 1»510.4 1.5 1 5.8 1 » 4 95 .6 P I N I T I A L QUARTER P - PRELIMINARY PREPARED 8 V F E D C R A L R ESER VE DANK. O F S T * L O U IS JAN U AR Y 2 0 » 1 9 9 2 12 GROSS RAT 10 S C A L E TR I L L I ONS OF 3 3 3 2 NATIONAL QUARTERLY DOLLARS TOTALS PRODUCT AT ANNUAL SEASONALLY R A T I O SC A L E T R I L L I O N S OF DOL L ARS 3. 2 3. I 3.0 9 RATES ADJUSTED 8 2 7 6 5 4 3 2 I 0 .9 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 . 8 .7 .9 . 8 .7 . 6 .5 .4 .3 . 2 974 975 976 977 1978 1979 SOURCE: P ER CE N TAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR P E R I O D S L A T E ST DATA P L O T T E D : 1980 U .S. 1981 D EP AR T M EN T 1982 OF COMMERCE INDICATED. 4 TH QUARTER P R E L I M I N A R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL 13 R E S E R V E BANK OF S T . LOUIS GENERAL RATIO PRICE INDEX* SCALE RATIO 1972-100 SCALE 1972-100 1974 1975 *AS USED IN NATIONAL 1976 1977 1978 1979 INCOME ACCOUNTS 1980 1981 1982 SOURCE: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTA6ES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED: 4TH QUARTER PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS I M P L I C I T PRICE DCFLATOR FOR GROSS NATIONAL PROOUCT ______________________________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE______________________________ TERMINAL_________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L QUARTER________________________________________________________________ 1972 QUARTER 3-79 4 -7 9 3-77 4-7 7 2-8 0 2 -6 1 3 -6 1 1 -7 7 2-77 3-7 8 4 - 7 8 1- 6 1 1-78 2-78 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 1-80 3—80 4 - 8 0 100 138.91 2-7 7 6 .8 3-7 7 6.1 5.4 4-7 7 6.2 5 .8 6.3 1 -7 8 6.1 5.8 6.0 5 .8 2-78 7 .0 7.0 7.5 8 .2 10.6 3—78 7.1 7.1 7.6 8 .0 9.2 7.7 4-78 7.5 7.6 8.0 8.5 9 .4 8.7 9.8 140.75 142.91 144.93 148.63 151.42 154.99 158.16 1 -7 9 7.6 7 .7 8.1 8 .4 9.1 8. 6 9. 1 6. 4 2-7 9 7.6 7.7 8.0 6 .3 8.9 8.4 8.7 8.1 7 8 3—79 7.6 7.7 8 .0 8.3 8.7 8.3 8 .5 6 .0 7 8 7.8 4-79 7.7 7.8 8.0 8 .3 8.6 8 .3 8.4 8.1 7 9 8.0 161.17 164.23 167.47 8.1 171.23 1-80 7.8 7.9 8.2 8 .4 8.7 8.4 8.5 8 .3 8 3 8.4 8.7 9.3 2-80 8.0 8.1 8 .3 8 .5 8.8 8.6 8 .7 8.5 8 6 8.8 9.1 9 .5 9. 8 3-80 8.1 8.1 8.4 8.6 8 .8 8.6 8 7 8.8 9.1 9.4 9 .5 9 .2 4 —80 8.2 8.3 8.6 8.8 9.0 8 .9 9.0 8. 9 9 0 9.2 9.4 9 .8 9.9 10 .0 10.7 1-81 8.3 8.4 8.6 8.8 9. 1 8 .9 9.1 9.0 9 1 9.2 9 .5 9.8 9.9 9.9 1 0 .3 9 .8 2-8 1 8.2 8.3 8.5 8 .7 8. 9 8.7 8.8 8. 7 8 8 8.9 9 .0 9.2 9.2 9.0 8.9 8.0 8. 9 8.7 175.26 179.18 183.81 188.14 6.4 191.06 195.61 3-8 1 8.3 8 .4 8.6 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.9 8.8 8 9 9.0 9.1 9 .3 9 .3 9.2 9.2 8.6 8 .1 9.9 4 -8 1 8 .3 8.4 8.6 8 .7 8.9 8.8 8 .9 8. 8 8 8 8.9 9 .1 9.2 9. 1 9 .0 9 .0 8.6 8.2 9.1 8.4 1-77 2-77 3 -7 7 4-77 1-78 2-7 8 3-78 4-78 1 - 79 2 -7 9 3-79 4— T9 1-BO 2-80 3-BO 4- BO 1—61 2-6 1 3-61 1 9 9 .58P I N I T I A L QUARTER P - PRELIMINARY PREPAREO B Y FE D E R A L RESERVE BANK O F S T . L O U IS JAN U AR Y 2 0 » 1 9 6 2 14 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPEIOITURES IN CURRENT DOLLARS ____________ COMPOUNOED ANNUAL RATES OP CHANGE_____________ “M TERMINAL QUARTER l LIONS O f DOLLARS ANNUAL r a t e s I N I T I A L QUARTER 1 -7 7 2-77 3- 7 7 4-7 7 1-78 2-78 3-76 2 -77 7.9 3 -77 9 .4 10.9 4 -7 7 10 .5 11 .8 12.8 1- 7 8 00 • * 10 .5 10.3 7 .8 2- 7 8 11*3 12 .1 12. 5 1 2 .4 17*2 3-78 11.5 12 .2 12.5 12.4 14*8 12 .5 4-78 1 1 .9 12 .6 1 2 .9 1 2 .9 14.7 1 3 .4 1 4 .3 4-78 1-79 2 -7 9 3-79 4-7 9 1-60 2-6 0 3 -6 0 4-8 0 1 -6 1 2-61 3-61 1 ,1 66.2 1* 21 7 .4 1» 2 5 4 . 5 1 ,2 78.3 1,3 30.1 1 ,3 69.9 1* 416 .6 1 -7 9 11*8 12 .3 12.6 1 2 .5 13.8 12 .6 12.7 11 .0 2-79 11 .2 11.6 11 .7 11.5 12.3 11 .1 1 0 .7 8.9 6.7 3-79 11.5 11.9 12 .1 12.0 12.7 11. 8 11.6 10.7 10.6 4-7 9 11 .8 12 .2 12 .4 12.3 13.0 12 .3 12 .2 11.7 11.9 14 .6 14.7 1- 8 0 11 .9 12 .3 12 .4 12.4 13.0 12.4 1 2 .3 11.9 12 .2 14.0 13 .8 12 .9 2-80 1 0 .9 11. 1 11.1 11.0 11.3 10. 6 10.3 9.7 9 .4 10 .1 8.6 5.7 -1 .0 3-80 11 .1 11 .3 11 .4 1 1 .3 1 U 11 .0 10 .8 10.3 10.2 10.9 10.0 8.5 6.4 14.3 4-8 0 1 1 .5 11 .8 11.8 11.8 12.1 11 .6 11.5 11.2 11 .2 1 2 .0 11.5 10 .7 9.9 15 .9 17 .4 1-81 1 1 .7 11 .9 1 2 .0 11.9 12.3 11 .9 11.8 11 .5 1 1 .6 1 2 .3 11.9 1 1 .4 11.0 15.3 15.8 I »4 5 4 .1 1,4 76.0 1 4 .6 1 » 5 2 9 .1 1»5 82.3 1»631.0 1» 6 2 6 . 8 1»6 62.2 1* 75 1 .0 1* 610 .1 14.2 2 -8 1 11.2 1 1 .4 11 .5 1 1 .4 1 1 .7 11 .2 11 .1 10.8 1 0 .7 11.2 10 .6 10.1 9*0 1 2 .4 11 .8 9.1 4 .3 3 -8 1 11 .3 11 .5 11 .5 11.5 11.7 11.3 1 1 .2 10 .9 10.9 11.4 11 .0 10 .5 10.1 12.5 12.0 10.2 8.3 12 .5 4-81 11.0 11 .2 11 .2 11.1 11.3 10 .9 10 .8 10.5 10.4 10.8 10.4 9 .9 9.4 11.3 10.7 9.1 7 .4 9.0 5.5 1-77 2-77 3 -7 7 4-7 7 1-78 2- 7 8 3- 7 8 4-7 8 1 -7 9 2-79 1-60 2-60 3-8 0 4-8 0 1-61 2-61 3-6 1 1* 829.1 1»8 8 3 .9 1 * 9 0 9 . 5P I N I T I A L QUARTER p - Pr e l i m i n a r y PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXP B W I TURES IN 1*72 DOLLARS __________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES Of CHANGE__________ TERMINAL QUARTER f t t L U o N i Of DOLLARS I N I T I A L QUARTER annual t u r n 1- 7 7 2-77 3- 7 7 4 -7 7 1-78 2- 7 8 3- 7 8 2-7 7 1.9 3-77 3 .4 4.9 4-77 4.6 6 .0 7.1 1 -7 8 3.8 4 .4 4.1 1 .3 2 -7 8 4.5 5.2 5.3 4 .4 7 .7 3-78 4.6 5.1 5.2 4 .5 6. 2 4.8 4-78 4 .7 5.2 5 .2 4 .« 6*0 5. 1 5 .5 4-7 8 1- 7 9 2-79 3 -7 9 4-79 1-60 2-60 3-60 4-8 0 1- 6 1 2-61 3-6 1 856.0 6 6 6 .4 88 1.3 88 4. 1 900.6 911.2 923.4 1- 7 9 4.2 4.6 4.5 4.0 4.7 3 .7 3.2 0.9 2-79 3.6 3.8 3 .7 3.1 3 .5 2 .5 1.7 -0 .1 3-79 3.7 3.9 3.8 3.3 3.7 2.9 2.4 1. 4 1.7 4.7 4-79 3.7 3.9 3.8 3.4 3 .7 3.0 2.7 2.0 2.3 4.1 3.6 3 .3 2.7 2.3 1.7 1.9 3.0 2.2 925.5 -1 .2 9 2 2 .8 933.4 941.6 1 -8 0 3 .5 3.6 3 .5 3.1 2-80 2 .4 2.4 2.2 1.7 1.8 1 .0 0.5 -0 .3 -0 .5 -0 .4 -2 .0 -4 .7 —9.8 3—60 2.6 2 .6 2.4 2.0 2.1 1.5 1.1 0.5 0 .4 0.7 -0 .3 -1 .5 -2 .7 5. 1 4-80 2 .9 2.9 2.8 2.4 2.5 2 .0 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.7 l.l 0.6 0.5 6.1 7.1 1-8 1 3.0 3.1 3 .0 2 .7 2. 8 2.4 2 .1 1.8 1.9 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.8 6 .0 6 .4 5.8 2- 6 1 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.3 2*4 2 .0 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.3 1.0 1.0 3.9 3.5 1.8 -2 .1 3 -8 1 2.8 2.8 2.7 2 .4 2.5 2.1 1. 9 1.5 1.6 1. 9 1.6 1.3 1.4 3. 8 3.4 2 .3 0.5 3.3 4 -8 1 2 .5 2 .5 2.4 2 .1 2*2 1.8 1.6 1 .2 1 .3 1.5 1.2 0 .9 0.9 2.6 2.4 1.2 -0 .3 0.7 -1 .9 1-7 7 2-77 3-7 7 4-77 1-78 2- 7 8 3 -7 8 4-78 1-79 2-7 9 3-79 4-79 1-60 2-60 3-60 4 -6 0 1-6 1 2-61 3- 6 1 0*8 943.4 919.3 930.8 946.8 960.2 955.1 962.8 9 5 8 . 3P I N I T I A L QUARTER P - PRELIMINARY PREPARED B Y FE D E R A L R ESER VE BANK OF S T • LO U IS JANUAR Y 20* 1 98 2 15 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC IXVESTMENT IN CURRENT 0 0 LLARS ____________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE_____________ TERMINAL QUARTER B I L L IO N S OF DOLLARS I N I T I A L QUARTER AWéüAL MATES 1 -7 7 2-7 7 29.4 2-77 3 -7 7 4 -7 7 1-78 2- 7 8 3- 7 8 4-78 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3-79 4-79 1- 6 0 2-6 0 3-60 4 -6 0 1- 6 1 3-6 1 31 6 .7 j-7 7 2 5 .9 22 .5 - -7 7 17.0 1 1 .3 1.1 1 -7 8 1 7 .4 13.6 9 .4 335.3 33 6. 2 18.4 3 5 0 .7 2 -7 8 20.6 18.5 17 .2 26 .2 3 4 .5 3 -7 8 1 7 .5 15.2 13 .5 17.9 17.7 2.9 4-78 16.9 14.9 1 3 .5 16.8 16.2 8.0 1 3 .5 1 -7 9 16.9 1 5 .2 1 4 .0 16.8 16.4 10 .9 15 .2 1 7 .0 2-79 16.7 15.2 14 .2 16.6 16.2 1 2 .0 1 5 .3 16 .2 15 .4 3-79 1 4 .8 13.3 1 2 .1 13.8 13.1 9 .2 10 .9 10 .0 6 .7 -1 .4 4-79 1 2 .2 10.6 9.4 10.4 9.3 5 .6 6.2 4.4 0.6 - 6 .1 -1 0 .6 1 -8 0 11 .6 1 0 .1 9.0 9 .9 8.9 5 .6 6.1 4.7 1 .8 -2 .4 -2 .9 5 .6 2 -8 0 8 .6 7.0 5 .7 6*2 4.9 1.7 1.6 -0 .3 “3 .4 -7 .6 -9 .6 -9 .1 3-8 0 6 .9 5.3 4 .0 4 .3 2.9 -0 .1 -0 .4 -2 .3 -5 .2 - 8 . 8 -1 0 .6 -1 0 .6 -17 .7 4 —80 7.9 6 .5 5.4 5.8 4.7 2.1 2.0 0.6 -1 .5 —4 . 1 3 7 7 .7 36 0 .4 3 9 2. 6 40 6.3 423.2 421.7 —4 . 6 4 1 0. 0 -3 .0 4 1 5 .6 -2 1 .7 -5 .7 3 9 0. 9 -1 3 .4 3.5 37 7.1 3 9 7 .7 23.7 1 -8 1 10.0 8 .8 7.9 8.4 7. 6 5.5 5.7 4.9 3 .5 1. 9 2 .4 5.3 5.2 16 .1 34 .4 45 .9 2 -8 1 10.6 9 .5 8 .7 9 .3 8.6 6.7 7.0 6.4 5.3 4 .1 4 .9 7 .6 8 .2 17.3 29.8 33 .0 21.2 3— 81 10 .2 9 .2 8 .4 8.9 8 .3 6 .5 6 .8 6.2 5.2 4.1 4 .8 7.2 7 .5 14.5 22 .8 2 2 .5 12 .2 4 -8 1 2-61 43 7. 1 8.7 7.6 6.8 7 .2 6 .5 4.7 4. 8 4.2 3.1 1.9 2 .3 4.0 3. 8 8.8 13.9 11.5 2.0 1 -7 7 2-77 3 -7 7 4-7 7 1-78 2 -7 8 3- 7 8 4-78 1- 7 9 2 -7 9 3-79 4-79 1-60 2-60 3-60 4 -60 1-61 458.6 4 6 3 .0 3.9 - 6 .4 -1 5 .7 2-61 4 4 3 . 6P 3-61 I N I T I A L QUARTER P - PRELIMINARY CROSS PRIVATE OOMESTIC INVEST MBIT IN 1972 DOLLARS ___________CQHPOUNOED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE___________ b I l l I on s of annual 1-77 2-77 3-77 2-7 7 3 -7 7 4 -7 7 1-78 2-7 8 3- 7 8 4-78 1-79 2-7 9 3-79 4-7 9 1-60 2-60 3-60 4-6 0 1 -6 1 2-61 3 -6 1 2 1 3. 7 22.1 17.7 22 0. 6 13.6 21 6. 5 4-7 7 8 .7 2.6 -7 .2 1- 7 8 1 0 .6 7.0 3.9 16.4 2-78 11 .5 9 .0 7.5 15.7 15.0 3-78 8.4 5.8 3.9 8.0 4.0 —6 . 0 2 2 4 .9 2 3 2. 9 229 . 3 2 3 1. 8 4 -7 8 7.8 5.6 4 .0 7.1 4 .1 -0 .9 4.4 1 -7 9 8 .1 6 .3 5.1 7 .8 5. 7 2 .8 7 .5 1 0 .6 2 -7 9 7.4 5 .7 4.6 6 .7 4 .9 2 .5 5.5 6.0 237.7 236 . 7 1.7 232 . 6 3 -7 9 5.5 3.8 2.7 4 .2 2.3 -0 .1 1.4 0 .5 4-79 3.2 1 .4 0.2 1.1 -0 .9 -3 .3 -2 .7 -4 .4 - 9 . 0 -1 3 .9 -1 7 .8 1 -8 0 2.4 0.8 —0 . 4 0 .4 -1 .5 -3 .6 -3 .2 —4 . 7 -8 .2 -1 1 .2 -1 1 .9 2-80 DOLLARS Ra t e s I N I T I A L QUARTER TERMINAL QUARTER -0 .4 -2 .1 -3 .4 -3 .0 -5 .0 -7 .2 -7 .4 -4 .2 -9 .8 22 1 .5 21 8 .3 -5 .7 -9 .2 -1 2 .7 -1 6 .0 -1 8 .0 -18 .1 -28 .8 20 0 .5 19 5.3 3-80 -1 .1 -2 .7 -4 .0 -3 .7 -5 .5 -7 .5 -7 .7 - 9 . 3 - 1 2 . 3 - 1 4 . 8 - 1 6 . 0 - 1 5 . 5 —20.0 - 1 0 . 0 4 -8 0 -0 .4 -1 .8 -2 .9 -2 .5 -4 .1 -5 .8 -5 .8 -7 .0 -9 .3 -1 1 .0 -1 1 .2 -9 .5 -1 0 .7 0 .0 11 .1 1-81 1.0 -0 .3 -1 .2 -0 .7 -2 .0 -3 .4 -3 .2 -4 .0 -5 .6 -6 .7 -6 .1 -3 .6 -3 .1 7 .4 17.4 24 .1 2 -8 1 1.8 0.7 -0 .1 0.4 -0 .7 -1 .9 -1 .5 -2 .1 -3 .4 -4 .1 -3 .2 -0 .5 0.5 9.6 17.0 20.1 16 .2 3-81 1.9 0.8 0.1 0 .6 -0 .4 -1 .5 -1 .1 -1 .6 -2 .8 -3 .3 -2 .4 0.0 1.0 6 .3 13.4 1 4 .2 9.6 4-81 0.4 -0 .7 -1 .5 -1 . 1 -2 .2 -3 .3 -3 .1 -3 .7 -4 .9 -5 .5 -5 .0 -3 .3 -3 .0 2.2 4.6 3 .3 1- 7 7 2-7 7 3-77 4-7 7 1-78 2 -7 6 3- 7 8 4-78 1-79 2-7 9 3-79 4-79 1-60 2-6 0 3-6 0 4-6 0 2 0 0 .5 21 1. 6 219.7 22 1. 5 3.3 -2 .8 -1 1 .1 -2 3 .6 1-6 1 2-61 2 0 7 . IP 3-61 I N I T I A L QUARTER P - PRELIMINARY PREPARED B Y FE D E R A L R ESER VE BANK OF S T . L O U IS JANUARY 20 » 1 902 16 GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES IN CURRENT DOLLARS _________________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE____________________ TERMINAL QUARTER B I L L IO N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 2-77 3 -7 7 13.8 3-77 10 .5 7.2 4-77 11 .4 10 .2 1 3 .2 4-7 7 1-78 2-78 3- 7 8 It 1-77 2-77 S I N I T I A L QUARTER 1 -7 9 2-79 3-7 9 4-79 1-BO 2-6 0 1-61 2-6 1 3-61 39 7. 9 9.8 8.5 9.1 5.3 9 .7 8 .7 9.2 7 .3 9.4 3- 7 8 10 .3 9.6 10 .2 9 .2 11.2 1 3 .0 4 -7 8 10 .6 1 0 .0 10.6 10.0 11.6 12 .7 12.4 1- 79 10 .0 9.5 9.9 9 .2 10.2 10.5 9.3 6.3 2-79 9 .6 9.1 9 .3 8.7 9.4 9.4 8.2 6 .2 6.2 3-79 9.5 9 .1 9 .3 8.8 9 .4 9.4 8 .5 7. 2 7 .6 9 .2 4 -7 9 10 .4 10 .0 1 0 .3 10 .0 10.7 10.9 10 .5 10.0 1 1 .3 13 .9 1- 80 10.9 10 .7 11 .0 10 .8 11.5 11 .8 1 1 .6 11.5 12 .8 15 .1 18 .2 17 .5 2 -8 0 10 .9 10 .7 1 1 .0 10.8 11.4 1 1 .7 1 1 .5 1 1 .3 12 .4 14.0 15 .6 14 .0 10.6 l CD 410.4 1-78 10 .3 1 0 .0 10 .3 10 .0 10.5 10 .6 1 0 .3 10.0 10.7 11.6 12 .2 10.1 6 .6 2.7 4-80 10 .9 10.7 11.0 10 .8 11.3 1 1 .5 11 .4 11.3 1 2 .0 13 .0 13 .8 12 .5 10.9 11 .1 o 4 -6 0 3 9 1 .0 2- 7 8 W 3-6 0 415.7 42 5 .1 438.3 4 5 1 .3 4 5 8 .2 4 6 5 .1 475 . 4 496.4 18 .9 5 1 6 .8 5 3 0 .0 5 3 3. 5 558.6 20.2 1-81 11. 1 10 .9 11.2 11.0 11.5 11 .7 1 1 .6 11.5 12 .2 13 .1 13.7 1 2 .7 11.6 11 .9 16.8 13 .4 2-81 10 .4 10.2 10 .4 1 0 .2 10.6 10 .7 10 .5 10.4 10 .8 1 1 .4 11.7 10.6 9.3 8.9 11.1 6 .8 0.6 3- 8 1 10.3 10 .1 10 .3 10. 1 10.5 10 .5 10 .3 10.2 10.6 11 .1 11.3 10.3 9.1 8.8 10.4 7 .3 4.3 8.2 4-81 10. 8 10 .6 10.8 10.7 11.0 11 .2 11.0 10.9 1 1 .3 1 1 .9 12 .2 11 .4 10.5 10.5 12.1 1 0 .2 9 .2 13.7 19.5 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 1- 7 9 2-79 3-79 4-79 l-e o 2- e o 3-60 4-6 0 1-8 1 2-81 3-61 576 . 5 577 . 4 588.9 6 1 5 . 7P I N I T I A L QUARTER P - PRELIMINARY GOVERN*NT PURCHASES OF GOOOS AND SERVICES IN 1972 DOLLARS _____________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE____________________ 1-7 7 2 -7 7 B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES I N I T I A L QUARTER 2 -7 7 3 -7 7 4-7 7 1-78 K) 1 CD TERMINAL QUARTER 3-78 4-78 1 -7 9 2-7 9 3-79 4-79 1-60 2 -6 0 3-60 4-6 0 1-6 1 2-8 1 3-61 27 1.4 4.4 3-7 7 3.9 3.4 4-77 3.6 3 .2 3.0 275.7 1-78 2 .3 1 .6 0 .7 -1 .6 2 7 4 .6 2- 7 8 2.3 1.8 1 .3 0 .4 2.5 3- 7 8 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.1 4.0 5.5 4-78 2.4 2.1 1. 9 1.6 2. 7 2 .8 0.1 27 3.7 276.3 28 0 .0 28 0 .1 280.6 1-7 9 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.4 2.2 2 .1 0 .4 0.7 2-79 1 .9 1 .6 1 .4 1.1 1.7 1 .4 0. 1 0.1 -0 .4 3 -7 9 1.9 1.6 1 .3 1 .1 1.6 1.4 0.4 0 .5 0.4 4 -7 9 2.2 2 .0 1 .9 1.7 2 .2 2.2 1.5 1.9 2.2 3.6 6 .1 1- 8 0 2.6 2.5 2.4 2 .3 2.8 2.8 2.4 2.8 3.4 4.7 6.5 6 .9 2 -8 0 2 .6 2.5 2.4 2 .3 2.8 2.8 2.4 2.8 3.2 4. 1 5.2 4.7 2. 5 280.3 281.1 1.1 265.3 290.1 2 9 1 .9 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.6 2.0 1 .9 1. 5 1 .6 1.6 2.2 2.5 1.4 -1 .3 -5 .0 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 2.0 1 .9 1 .5 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.5 1.6 -0.1 -1 .4 1-81 2 .3 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.2 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.7 2 .9 2 .3 1.2 0 .8 3.8 5.3 2-8 1 1. 8 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.0 -0 .2 -0 .6 0 .6 -0 .2 1.6 1.2 1 .3 1.4 288 . 2 2.2 2 8 9 .8 293.6 -5 .5 269.5 i 00 L 3 -8 0 4-80 1.6 1.4 1.3 1 .2 1.4 1.3 1.0 1 .1 1 .1 1.3 1.3 0.6 -0 .4 -1 .0 0 .0 -0 .7 -3 .6 -1 .6 4 -8 1 1.9 1.7 1 .6 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.4 1 .6 1.6 1.8 1.9 1 .4 0 .6 0.3 1.4 1.2 —0 . 1 2 .7 7 .3 1 -7 7 2 -7 7 3 -7 7 4 -7 7 1-78 2-78 3 -7 6 4 -7 6 1- 7 9 2-79 3 -7 9 4-79 1-60 2 -60 3-6 0 4 -8 0 1-61 2-6 1 3-6 1 288 . 3 2 9 3. 4P I N I T I A L QUARTER P - PRELIMINARY PREPARED B Y FE D E R A L R ESER VE BANK O F S T . L O U IS JANU AR Y 2 0 . 1 9 8 2 17 DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN CURRENT DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE 61LL10HS O f DOLLARS ANNUAL r a t e s I N I T I A L QUARTER TERMINAL ¿mARm 1 -7 7 2-77 3-77 4-7 7 1-78 2- 7 8 3-7 8 4-78 1 -7 9 2-7 9 3-79 4-79 1-60 2-6 0 3-60 4-8 0 1-6 1 2-61 3 -6 1 1*2 91 .0 2-7 7 1 1 .9 3-77 12 . 6 1 3 .4 4-7 7 12 .1 12.3 1 1 .2 1-78 11*4 11 .2 10.1 9.1 2-78 1 1 .7 11.6 11.0 10.9 12.8 3 -7 8 11.7 11.7 11.3 11.3 12.4 12 .0 4-78 12 .0 1 2 .0 11 .8 11.9 12.9 12 .9 13 .9 1-79 12 .2 1 2 .2 12 .1 12.2 13*0 13 .1 13.7 13 .5 2-79 11 .8 11 .8 11.5 11.6 12.1 11. 9 11 .9 11.0 3-79 11.9 11.9 11 .8 11 .8 12.3 12.2 12 .3 11.7 10 .8 13.3 4-7 9 1 1 .9 1 1 .9 11.7 11.8 12.2 12.1 12.1 11.7 1 1 .1 12.4 11.6 1- 8 0 12 .0 12.0 1 1 .9 12.0 12.4 12 .3 1 2 .4 12 .1 11.7 12 .6 12.5 9 .8 8.8 1*332.1 1*367.6 1*396 .0 2-8 0 11.4 11.4 1 1 .2 11 . 2 11.4 3-80 11.6 11.5 1 1 .4 11.4 11.6 4-80 11.6 11.6 11.5 1 1 .5 11.7 1* 440 .7 1 ,4 8 2 . 1 1» 5 3 1 . 0 1 »5 6 0 . 3 1 »6 1 2 . 6 8.5 1,643.8 1,710.1 13 .5 1» 7 6 5 .1 1 ,7 8 4 . 1 1 1 .2 10.7 10.2 10.6 11 .5 11 .4 11 .1 10.7 11 .1 1 0 .6 10 .3 6. 7 13.3 11 .6 11.6 11.3 11 .0 11.4 1 1 .1 10 .9 10*1 13.1 12.8 1 1 .1 11 .0 10.4 12.4 12.0 11 .3 4.4 1»8 4 0 .6 1»8 9 7 . 0 1»9 4 7 . 8 11 .6 11 .5 1 1 .3 11.0 11.4 11 .4 11 .3 11 .2 11 .0 1 0 .7 11 .0 10.6 10 .5 9.9 11.3 1 0 .6 9.6 8.0 11.4 1 1 .3 11 .3 11 .0 10 .8 11 .1 10 .8 10.7 10.2 11.4 10.9 10.3 9.9 11.9 11 .1 11.3 11.2 11 .1 1 0 .9 10 .6 10 .6 10.6 1 0 .5 10.0 11.0 10 .5 10 .0 9.6 10.4 9.0 4 -7 7 1-78 2-7 8 3- 7 8 4-7 8 1 -7 9 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-60 2-6 0 3-6 0 4-8 0 1-6 1 2-61 3 -6 1 1- 8 1 11.6 11.6 11.5 11 .5 11.7 2 -8 1 1 1 .4 1 1 .4 11 .2 1 1 .2 3 -8 1 11 .4 1 1 .4 1 1 .3 11.3 4-81 1 1 .3 11 .3 11 .1 1-77 2— 77 3-7 7 11.1 1 ,965.6 2 * 04 2 .0 2 »0 6 6 . 4 P I N I T I A L QUARTER P - PRELIMINARY DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME I N 1972 DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE 2-7 7 3-77 4-7 7 1-78 2- 7 8 3-7 8 > 1 • 1 -7 7 2-77 t t L i l t m Of DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES I N I T I A L QUARTER TERMINAL QUARTER 1 -7 9 2-79 3-7 9 4-7 9 1-60 2-8 0 4-6 0 1-6 1 3-61 9 4 6 .1 3-77 6.5 7 .3 6.2 6.4 5.5 1- 7 8 5.2 5 .1 4 .0 2.5 2-78 4 .9 4 .7 3.9 3.1 3.6 3 -7 8 4 .8 4 .6 4.0 3 .5 4.0 4.3 4-7 8 4.8 4.7 4.2 3.9 4.3 4.7 5.0 4.1 3 .1 2.9 1.8 0.5 960.9 96 6 .8 9 7 5 .5 985.9 996.0 1,005.7 1-79 4 .6 4.3 4 .0 3.7 4.0 4 .1 2-79 4.2 4.0 3.5 3.2 3.3 3.2 3-7 9 4.1 3 .9 3.5 3 .2 3.3 3.3 3.0 2.4 2.0 3.5 4-7 9 3 .8 3.6 3.2 2.9 3 .0 2.9 2.6 2.0 1.6 2.2 0 .6 1- 8 0 3 .6 3.4 3.0 2.7 2*6 2. 6 2.4 1. 6 1.5 1.9 1.0 1.3 2-80 2 .9 2.7 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.3 0.7 0 .2 0.1 -1 .0 -1 .9 -4 .9 3-80 3 .0 2.8 2.4 2.1 2.1 1. 9 1.6 1.2 0 .6 0.9 0 .3 0.1 —0 . 5 4.1 2.8 2.5 2 .2 2.2 1.8 1 .4 1.1 1 .2 0 .8 0.8 0.6 3 .5 3.0 2 .0 1,006.9 1,015.7 1,0 17.7 1,0 2 1 .0 1 ,0 0 6 . 2 1* 016.5 1,0 25.8 1,0 3 3 .3 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.2 2. 1 1 .9 1.6 1 .4 1.5 1 .2 1.2 1*2 3.3 2.9 3 .0 00 1 2.9 1- 8 1 2 .9 2 .7 2.4 2.2 2. 2 2.1 1.8 1.5 1. 4 1.5 1 .2 1 .2 1.2 2.6 2.4 2.2 1.4 3-81 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.2 2*2 2.1 1.9 1. 6 1.5 1.6 1 .4 1.4 1.5 2.6 2 .5 2 .3 2.0 4-81 2-6 1 931.6 4-7 7 4-80 3 -6 0 5.7 1*036.6 1,0 43.6 2.6 2 .8 2 .6 2.4 2 .2 2.2 2 .0 1 .9 1 .6 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.5 2.6 2 .2 2 .1 1.8 2.0 1.3 1 -7 7 2 -7 7 3 -7 7 4 -7 7 1-78 2-7 8 3 -7 8 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-60 2-60 3-60 4-6 0 1-61 2-61 3 -8 1 1 , 0 4 7 . IP I N I T I A L QUARTER P - PRELIMINARY PR EP A R O ) B Y FED ER A L RESERVE B A t* O F S T . «JANUARY 2 0 » 1 9 8 2 18 LO U IS CORPORATE PROFITS AFTER TAXES* COHPOUWPEP AM<U»L RATES OF CHAHtE TERMINAL QUARTER in itia l B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS QUART» ANNUAL f c A m 4-76 1-7 7 2-77 3-77 4—77 1-78 2- 7 8 3-78 4-78 1-7 9 2-79 3-79 4-7 9 1 -8 0 2—60 3-8 0 4—0 0 1-81 2-61 48*3 11 4. 1 2-77 3 1 .6 16 .7 11 8 . 6 3-77 26.5 16 .8 16.8 4-7 7 19.9 11 . 7 9 .3 2 .3 1- 7 8 1 6 .7 9 .9 7 .7 3.4 2-78 20 .e 15 .9 15.7 15.3 22 .4 43 .3 3- 7 8 20 .3 16.2 16.1 15.9 20*8 29.9 17.7 4— 78 2 2 .8 19 .5 19 .9 20 .6 25. 6 3 3 .6 29 .0 1- 7 7 12 3. 3 12 4 .0 4. 6 12 5 . 4 13 7.2 14 2. 9 41 .3 15 5. 8 1 6 4 .6 1-7 9 23.0 20.1 20 .6 21.2 25 .4 31.3 27.5 32 .7 24.6 2-79 20.4 17 .7 17 .8 17.9 20 .8 24.3 20.0 20 .7 11 .6 0.0 3-79 20.7 1 8 .3 18.5 18.7 21 .2 24.2 20.7 21 .5 15 . 5 11.2 4 -7 9 1 7 .6 15 .2 15 .0 14.8 16.5 18 .3 14 .5 13.9 8.0 2.9 1 -8 0 19 .2 1 7 .0 17.1 1 7 .1 18.9 20.8 17.9 17.9 13.7 11.1 2 -8 0 10 .5 8.0 7 .3 6 .5 6.9 7.2 3.3 1 .4 -4 .0 -«.9 12 .2 10 .0 9.5 8.9 9 .5 10 .0 6 .8 5.5 1.2 -2 .2 -2 .7 -«.4 -7 .1 -2 4 .3 39.1 3-80 16 4 .6 17 3. 6 23 .7 168 .2 4 .4 -11 .9 1 5 .1 11.0 18 2. 9 39*8 - 1 1 . 0 - 2 0 . 3 —24.1 14 6. 5 -6 8 .8 15 9.1 16 4 .3 4-80 12.3 10 .2 9.8 9 .2 9. 8 10 .3 7.5 6.4 2.7 -0 .1 -0 .1 -4 .3 -2 .3 -1 3 .3 25 .8 13 .7 1-8 1 12 . 3 10.4 9.9 9.5 10.0 10 .5 7.9 7.0 3.7 1.4 1.6 -1 .7 0.5 -7 .5 21 .2 13.1 2 -8 1 9.1 7.1 6 .5 5.9 6.1 6.2 3.6 2 .4 -0 .8 -3 .3 -3 .7 -7 .1 -6 .2 -1 3 .4 4 .2 -5 .3 -1 3 .6 -3 3 .7 3-81 1 6 9 .2 12.5 9.1 7.2 6.7 6.1 6.4 6.5 4.1 3.0 0.1 -2 .0 -2 .3 -5 .1 -4 .1 -9 .9 5.3 -1 .8 -6 .4 -1 4 .7 4-76 1-7 7 2-77 3-77 4-7 7 1-78 2-78 3-78 4— 78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4- 7 9 1 -8 0 2-8 0 3-8 0 4-0 0 15 2 .7 9 .8 15 6 .3 N. A. 4-81 1-61 2-81 I N I T I A L QUARTER ♦ NATIONAL INCOME BASIS N. A. - No t A v a i l a b l e . PREPARED S T FEDERAL RESERVE BAMC OF S T . LOUIS JANUARY 2 0 1 I W 2 HISTORICAL SOURCES OF NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS DATA The NIPA estimates for 1929-76 are 1n The National Income and Product Accounts of the United States, 1929-76: Statistical Tablles (Stock number M3-010-00101-1, price $10.00). Estimates for 1976-79 are in National Income and Product Accounts, 1976-79, (Stock number 003-010-72188-0, price $4.5571 Estimates for the period since 1979 appear monthly in the Survey of Current Business. These publications present the results oT~the comprehensive revision of the national income and product accounts described in the December 1980 Survey, and are available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. For further information, write to the National Income and Wealth Division (BE-54) Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230. Telephone (202) 523-0669, Mr. Robert P. Parker. 19 INVENTORIES COMPARED W I T H MONT HL Y MANUFACTURING * R A T I OS BASED SHADED AREAS LATEST DATA ON SEASONALLY REPRESENT PLOTTED: ADJUSTED PERIODS OF AND DATA. BUSINESS SALES* TRADE SOURCE: U . S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE RECESSIONS. NOVEMBER PREPARED 20 BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
@FedFRASER