Full text of National Economic Trends : January 1979
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nnnonni Economic menos
PREPARED
M O N TH EN D IN G :
Decem ber
31»
BY
1978
FEDERAL
RESERVE
BANK
OF
ST.
L O U IS
RELEASED:
Ja n u a ry
31,
1979
During 1978, the pace of economic activity expanded rapidly and
inflation accelerated. From the fourth quarter of 1977 to the fourth quarter
of 1978, total spending grew 12.9 percent, a one percentage point increase
over 1977. The GNP deflator rose 8.3 percent over the most recent
four-quarter period, substantially faster than the 6.1 percent increase
of the prior year. Real GNP growth, at a rapid 4.3 percent in 1978, was
slower than the advance of 5.5 percent for the year ending in the fourth
quarter of 1977.
The acceleration in inflation during 1978 is also reflected in
other price measures. From December 1977 to December 1978, producer prices
for all commodities rose 9.7 percent after increasing 5.9 percent during the
comparable period for 1977. Producer prices for Industrial commodities rose
8.4 percent during 1978 after increasing 6.8 percent in 1977. Similarly,
consumer price increases accelerated to 9 percent from 6.8 percent in 1977.
The price of labor services reflected the same acceleration as hourly
compensation in the private business sector rose 9.8 percent over the year
ending in the fourth quarter of 1978, following the 7.5 percent increase in
the prior year.
The growth rates of some components of real output declined during
1978. Personal consumption expenditures grew 3.8 percent in the year ending
fourth quarter 1978, slower than the 4.8 percent rate of 1977. This slowing
was associated with a moderation in real disposable income growth from
the 5.4 percent increase in 1977 to 3.3 percent in 1978. The growth of
purchases of goods and services by the Federal government dropped sharply
from a 6.3 percent rate of increase in 1977 to a 0.3 percent decline from
the fourth quarter of 1977 to the fourth quarter of 1978.
The rate of growth of industrial output accelerated in 1978. From
the fourth quarter of 1977 to the fourth quarter of 1978, industrial
production grew 7.3 percent, after expanding 5.9 percent in the corresponding
period for 1977. The recent pace of expansion has contributed to a rise in
the utilization of manufacturing capacity, as measured by the Federal Reserve
Board, from an 82.9 percent rate in the fourth quarter of 1977 to 85.7
percent in the fourth quarter of 1978. Rapid production growth and high
levels of capacity utilization contributed to the fast growth of real
nonresidential fixed investment at an 8.3 percent rate in 1978.
Employment growth continued at a rapid pace in 1978. From the
fourth quarter of 1977 to the fourth quarter of 1978, civilian employment
grew 3.9 percent, faster than the 3.0 percent increase in the civilian labor
force. Consequently, the unemployment rate declined from an average rate of
6.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 1977 to 5.8 percent in the fourth
quarter of 1978. Comparing employment growth to that of real GNP suggests
that productivity grew very slowly. Output per hour in the private
business sector expanded only 0.5 percent from fourth quarter 1977 to fourth
quarter 1978.
TOTAL
COMPOUNDED
TERMINAL
MONTH
INITIAL
5-77
6-77
C IVILIAN EMPLOYMENT *
A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E
6-77
7-77
8-77
9-77
10-77
11-77
12-77
1-78
THOUSANDS
UP PERSONS
MONTH
2-78
3-78
4-78
6-78
5-78
7-78
8-78
9-78
10-78
11-78
VO y 500
4,5
90 ,60S
7-77
3.0
1.4
8-77
3.3
2.7
4.0
9-77
3.4
3.1
3.9
3.8
10-77
3.2
2.9
3.4
3.1
11-77
4.6
4.6
5.4
5.8
6.9
11.4
12-77
4.6
4.6
5.3
5.6
6.2
8.1
5.8
90,903
91,187
91,374
2.5
92,203
4.8
92,561
92,923
1-78
4.6
4.6
5.2
5.4
7.0
4.8
2-78
4.3
4.3
4.7
4.8
5.0
5.6
3.7
3.2
1.6
3-78
4.2
4.1
4.5
4.5
4.6
5.1
3.6
3.2
2.3
3.1
4-78
4.3
4.3
4.6
4.7
4.8
5.2
4.0
3.8
3.4
4.3
5.6
4.8
93,047
93,282
93,704
93,953
5-78
4.2
4.2
4.5
4.5
4.6
4.9
3.8
3.6
3.4
4.0
4.4
3.2
6-78
4.6
4. 6
4.9
5.0
5.1
5.4
4.6
4.5
4.5
5.2
6.0
6.1
9.1
7-78
4.1
4.0
4.2
4.3
4.3
4.5
3.7
3.5
3.3
3.6
3.8
3.2
3.2
-2.4
94 ,640
94,446
94,723
8-78
4.0
4.0
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.4
3.7
3.5
3.3
3.6
3.7
3.3
3.3
0.5
3.6
9-78
4.0
4.0
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.3
3.7
3.5
3.4
3.6
3.7
3.4
3.4
1.6
3.6
3.7
10-78
3.9
3.9
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.2
3.6
3.5
3.3
3.6
3.6
3.3
3.3
1.9
3.4
3.3
3.0
11-78
4.1
4.1
4.2
4.2
4.3
4.4
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.9
4.0
3.8
3.9
2.8
4.2
4.4
4.8
6.6
12-78
3.9
3.9
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.2
3.7
3.6
3.4
3.6
3.7
3.5
3.5
2.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.9
1.3
5-77
6-77
7-77
8-77
9-77
10-77
11-77
12-77
1-78
2-78
3-78
4-78
5-78
6-78
7-78
8-78
9-78
10-78
11-78
INITIAL
95,010
95,241
95*751
95,855
1K O N T H
*-REVISED FROM 1974.
PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT
C O M P O U N D E D <A N N U A L R A T E S O F C H A N G E
TERMINAL
MONTH
INITIAL
5-77
7-77
6-77
6-77
5.1
7-77
3.9
2.6
8-77
3.3
2.4
8-77
9-77
10-77
11-77
12-77
1-78
2-78
MONTH
3-78
THOUSANDS
OF PERSONS
4-78
5-78
6-78
7-78
8-78
9-78
10-78
11-78
82,277
82,455
2.2
82,603
9-77
3.9
3.4
3.8
5.5
10-77
3.7
3.4
3.7
4.4
3.3
11-77
4.0
3.8
4.0
4.7
4.2
5.2
12-77
3.8
3.5
3.7
4.1
3.6
3.8
62,973
83,199
83,549
83,719
2.5
1-78
3.6
3.3
3.5
3.7
3.3
3.3
2.3
2.2
2-78
3.7
3.5
3.6
3.9
3.6
3.6
3.1
3.4
4.6
83,871
3-78
4.1
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.3
4.5
4.3
4.9
6.3
7.9
4— 78
4.6
4.6
4.8
5.2
5.1
5.4
5.5
6.2
7.6
9.1
10.3
5-78
4.5
4.4
4.6
4.9
4.8
5.0
5.0
5.5
6.4
7.0
6.5
2.8
6-78
4.6
4.5
4.7
4.9
4.9
5.1
5.1
5.5
6.2
6.6
6.1
4.1
5.4
7-78
4.3
4.2
4.3
4.5
4.4
4.6
4.5
4.8
5.2
5.3
4.7
2.9
2.9
0.5
8-78
4.1
4.0
4.1
4.3
4.2
4*3
4.2
4.4
4.7
4.7
4.1
2.6
2.5
1.1
1.6
9-78
3.8
3.9
3.8
3.9
4.1
4.1
3.4
2.1
1.9
0.8
0.9
0.2
4.1
4.3
4.3
2.7
2.0
2.5
3.0
5.9
84,188
84,726
85,418
85,618
85,996
86,033
86,149
86,163
3.8
3.8
3.8
4.0
10-78
4.0
3.9
4.0
4.1
4.0
4.1
4.0
3.8
2.7
11-78
4.1
4.0
4.1
4.3
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.3
4.5
4.5
4.1
3.2
3.3
2.9
3.5
4.1
6.1
6.4
12-78
4.1
4.0
4.1
4.2
4.1
4.2
4.1
4.2
4.4
4.4
4.0
3.3
3.3
3.0
3.5
4.0
5.2
4.9
3.5
5-77
6-77
7-77
8-77
9-77
10-77
11-77
12-77
1-78
2-78
3-78
4-78
5-78
6-78
7-78
8-78
9-78
10-78
11-78
86,573
8 7 ,020P
87,270P
INITIAL NONTH
P- PRELIMINARY
P f l E f M E P ft* F É P 6 M L R E S E R V E S A N K _ p p S T .
JA N U AR Y 1 5 , 1979
2
LOUIS
EMPLOYMENT
RATIO
RATIO
SCALE
MILLIONS
OF P E R S O N S
MILLIONS
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE:
PERCENTAGES
ARE
LATEST
PLOTTED»
*
DATA
REVISED
F ROM
AN NUAL
RATES
DE CEMBER
OF
CHAN GE
FOR
PERIODS
U.S.D EPAR TM EN T
OF
LABOR
ST.
LOUIS
IN D ICA TED .
PR ELIM INARY
1974.
PR EP AR ED
UNEMPLOYMENT
PERCENT
SCALE
OF P E R S O N S
SEASONALLY
BY
FEDERAL
RATE
RESERVE
BANK
OF
*
PERCENT
ADJUSTED
10. 0
9.
9 .0
8.
8.0
7
.
7 .0
6.
6.0
5.
5 .0
A.
4 .0
3.
3 .0
2.
2.0
SOURCE«
PE RC EMT
LATEST
OF
C IV IL j
DATA
PL O T
LABOR
R EV IS E D
FROM
DE PAR TM E N T
OF
LAB OR
ST.
L O U IS
1 DE CEMBER
PR EPAR ED
*
U .S .
F OR CE
I9 M .
3
BY
FED ERA L
RESERVE
BANK
OF
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
TER M IN A L
IN IT IA L
MONTH
1967=100
MONTH______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ _
5 -7 7
6 -7 7
7 -7 7
6 -7 7
6 .1
7 -7 7
5 .1
4 .0
b -7 7
5 .0
4 .4
4 .7
9 -7 7
4 .9
4 .5
4 .7
8 -7 7
9 -7 7
1 0 -7 7
1 1 -7 7
1 2 -7 7
1 -7 8
2 -7 8
3 -7 8
4 -7 8
6 -7 8
5 -7 8
7 -7 8
8 -7 8
9 -7 8
1 0 -7 8
11 - 7 8
1 8 1 .8
1 8 2 .4
1 8 3 .1
4 .7
1 8 3 .8
10— 77
4 .7
4 .4
4 .5
4 .3
4 .0
1 1 -7 7
4 .8
4 .5
4 .7
4 .7
4 .7
5 .3
1 2 -7 7
4 .9
4 .7
4 .8
4 .8
4 .9
5 .3
1 -7 8
5 .5
5 .4
5 .7
5 .9
6 .2
2 -7 8
5 .8
5 .7
6 .0
6 .2
6 .5
3 -7 8
6 .2
6 .2
6 .5
6 .7
4 -7 8
6 .6
6 .6
6 .9
7 .2
1 8 4 .4
1 8 5 .2
5 .3
1 8 6 .0
6 .9
7 .7
1 0 .1
1 8 7 .5
7 .2
7 .8
9 .0
8 .0
7 .1
7 .7
8 .3
9 .3
9 .0
1 0 .0
7 .6
8 .2
8 .8
9 .6
9 .5
1 0 .3
1 8 8 .7
\
1 9 0 .2
1 9 1 .8
1 0 .6
5 -7 8
7 .0
7 .1
7 .4
7 .7
8 .1
8 .7
9 .3
1 0 .1
1 0 .1
1 0 .8
1 1 .2
1 1 .9
6 -7 8
7 .3
7 .4
7 .7
8 .0
8 .4
9 .0
9 .5
1 0 .2
1 0 .3
1 0 .9
1 1 .2
1 1 .5
1 1 .1
7 -7 8
7 .3
7 .3
7 .6
7 .9
8 .2
8 .7
9 .1
9 .7
9 .6
9 .9
9 .9
9 .7
8 .7
6 .3
8 -7 8
7 .2
7 .3
7 .6
7 .8
8 .1
8 .5
8 .9
9 .3
9 .2
9 .4
9 .3
9 .0
8 .1
6 .6
6 .9
1 9 3 .6
1 9 5 .3
1 9 6 .3
1 9 7 .4
1 9 8 .8
9 -7 8
7 .3
7 .4
7 .7
7 .9
8 .2
8 .5
8 .9
9 .3
9 .2
9 .4
9 .2
9 .0
8 .3
7 .4
7 .9
8 .9
1 0 -7 8
7 .5
7 .6
7 .8
8 .0
8 .3
8 .7
9 .0
9 .4
9 .3
9 .4
9 .4
9 .2
8 .6
8 .0
8 .6
9 .5
1 0 .1
1 1 -7 8
7 .5
7 .5
7 .8
8 .0
8 .2
8 .5
8 .8
9 .1
9 .0
9 .1
9 .0
8 .8
8 .3
7 .8
8 .2
8 .6
8 .4
6 .8
8 .0
1 1- 7 R
1 2 -7 8
7 .5
7 .6
7 .8
8 .0
8 .2
8 .5
8 .7
9 .0
8 .9
5 -7 7
#»— 7 7
7 -7 7
ft— 7 7
9 -7 7
1 0 -7 7
1 1 -7 7
l? -7 7
1 -7 »
7 — 711
TM TTIA I
♦ C P I-W
FOR
URBAN
WAGE
EARNERS
AND
C LE R IC A L
WORKERS
R E V IS E D
AS
OF
8 .7
8 .9
9 .0
4*— 7
^ -7 8
ft
8 .3
S — 7 ft
7 .8
8 .1
8 .4
8 .3
7 .4
A -7 A
7 -7 «
R -T R
Q— 7A
1 A — 7ft
IN D E X ,
ALL
COMPOUNDED
TE R M IN A L
2 0 2 .8
1
1978
PUFPAD rn
P R IC E
2 0 1 .5
MONTH
JA N .
JAN UARY
PRODUCER
2 0 0 .4
CUM M ÜD IT IE S
R A TtS
ANNUAL
IN IT IA L
UP
SEASONALLY
BWf -
u v
2 4 ,
RAIIK
OF
ST*
LO U IS
1979
A D JU S Itü
CHANGE
MONTH
1VÒ /
-
100
MONTH
5 -7 7
7 -7 7
6 -7 7
Ö— 7 7
9 -7 7
1 0 -7 7
1 1 -7 7
1 2 -7 7
1 -7 8
2 -7 8
6 -7 7
- 5 . 4
7 -7 7
—2 .4
0 .6
8 -7 7
-1 .2
0 .9
1 .2
9 -7 7
0 .2
2 .1
2 . a
4 .4
1 0 -7 7
1 .4
3 .1
4 .0
5 .4
6 .3
1 1 -7 7
2 .6
4 .3
5 .2
6 .5
7 .6
8 .9
1 2 -7 7
2 .9
4 .4
5 .1
6 . 1
6 .7
6 .9
5 .0
1 -7 8
3 .9
5 .4
6 .2
7 .2
7 .9
8 .4
8 .2
2 -7 8
4 .9
6 .2
7 .1
8 .1
8 .8
9 .5
9 .6
1 2 .1
1 2 .7
3 -7 8
5 .6
6 .9
7 .7
8 .6
9 .3
9 .9
1 0 .2
1 2 .0
1 2 .3
1 1 .9
4 -7 8
6 .3
7 .6
8 .4
9 .3
1 0 .0
1 0 .7
1 1 .0
1 2 .6
1 3 .0
1 3 .1
3 -/ Ö
* * -7b
5 -7 8
6 -7 8
7 -7 8
8 — 78
9 — 7t>
1 0 -7 0
11
— fÖ
1 9 4 .2
1 9 4 .3
1 94. 5
1 9 5 .2
1 9 6 .2
1 9 7 .6
1 9 8 .4
f
f
1 1 .4
2 0 0 .2
"
2 0 2 .2
2 0 4 .1
1 4 .4
2 0 6 .'*
5 -7 6
6 .5
7 .7
8 .4
9 .2
9 .d
1 0 .3
1 0 .6
1 1 .8
1 1 .8
1 1 .5
1 1 .4
8 .5
6 -7 8
6 .7
7 .7
Ö .4
9 .1
V .7
1 0 .1
1 0 .3
1 1 .2
1 1 .1
1 0 .7
1 0 .4
8 .4
8 .4
2 C 7 .8
\ 9 . 7 %
2 0 9 .2
7 -7 8
6 .5
7 .4
8 .0
8 .7
9 .1
9 .4
9 .5
1 0 .1
9 .9
9 .4
8 .8
7 .0
6 .2
4 .1
8 -7 8
6 .3
7 .2
7 .7
8 .2
Ö .6
8 .8
8 .8
9 .3
9 .0
8 .4
7 .7
6 . 1
5 .3
3 .8
3 .5
9 -7 8
6 .5
7 .3
7 .8
8 .3
8 .7
8 .9
8 .9
9 .3
9 .0
8 .5
8 .0
6 .8
6 .3
5 .7
6 .5
2 0 9 .9
2 1 0 .5 R
9 .5
2 1 2 .1
1 0 -7 8
7 .1
7 .9
8 .4
9 .0
9 .3
9 .6
9 .6
1 0 .1
1 0 .0
9 .6
9 .3
8 .5
8 .5
8 .6
1 0 .1
1 3 .5
1 7 .7
1 1 -7 8
7 .2
7 .9
8 .4
8 . V
9 .2
9 .5
9 .5
9 .9
9 .8
9 .5
9 .2
8 .4
8 .4
8 .5
9 .6
1 1 .7
1 2 .8
8 .1
9 .1
9 .3
9 .3
9 .7
9 .5
9 .2
8 .9
8 .2
8 .2
8 .2
9 .0
1 0 .5
1 0 .8
7. 5
o.N
9 -7 7
1 0 -7 7
1 1 -7 7
1 2 -7 7
1 -7 8
2 -7 8
3 -7 8
4 -7 8
5 -7 8
6 -7 8
7 -7 8
H — 78
9— 7b
1 0 -7 d
11 - 7 d
1 2 -7 8
7 .1
7 .9
8 .3
5 -7 7
6 -7 7
7 -7 7
8 .8
d —7 7
IN IT IA L
2 1 5 .0
\
2 1 6 .4
X
2 1 7 .6
MUNTH
R-REVISED
PR EP AR ILO
BY
JANUARY I I ,
4
ffcUfcHAL .
1979
R fcifcK V t
Uh
ST.
LU U IS
RATIO
SCALE
P R I C E S
1967-100
RATIO
SEASONALLY AOJUSTFD
LLCPI-U FOR ALL URBAN CONSUMERS (NEW SERIES BEGINNING JANUARY 1978)
I2.CPI-* FOR URBAN WAGE EARNERS AND CLERICAL WORKERS (REVISED SERIES BEGINNING JANUARY
NOTE« C P I, SEASONALLY A D J U S T E D , ( O L D S ER IES ) TERMINATED BEGINNING JANUARY 1978
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS
LATEST DATA PLOTTED.
1978 )
INDICATED.
DECEMBER
PREPARED BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST.
RATIO
SCALE
PRODUCER
1967-100
PRICES
SEASONALLY
ADJUSTED
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS
LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt
SCALE
1967-100
LOUIS
RATIO
scale
1967-100
INDICATED.
DECEMBER
PREPARED BY FEDERAL R ESER V E BANK OF ST .
5
L O U IS
PRODUCER
P R IC E
IN D EX * I N D UST RIA L COMMODITIES - SFA SQ N A LLY A DJUSTED
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
TERMINAL
IN IT IA L
MONTH
196 7
~ IOC
.-HQN3JtL_.
5-77
6-77
7-77
8-77
9-77 10-77 11-77 12-7?
1-78
2-78
3-78
4-78
5-78
6-78
7-78
8-78
9-78
10-/8 li-7ó
3o 8
8 -7 7
5 .9
7 .0
6 .3
9 -7 7
6 .0
6 .7
6 .3
6 .3
1 0 -7 7
5 .9
6 .5
6 .1
5 .9
5 .6
1 1 -7 7
5 .5
5 .9
5 .5
5 .2
4 .6
3 .7
1 9 9 .3
1 2 -7 7
5 .6
5 .9
5 .6
5 .4
5 .2
4 .9
2 0 0 .3
1 -7 8
6 .2
6 .5
6 .3
6 .3
6 .3
6 .6
1 9 6 .8
1 9 7 .8
1 9 8 .7
8 .1
2 0 1 .9
1 0 .0
2 -7 8
6 .3
6 .6
6 .5
6 .5
6 .6
6 .8
7 .8
8 .7
7 .4
3 -7 8
6 .3
6 .6
6 .4
6 .4
6 .5
6 .6
7 .4
7 .8
6 .7
6 .1
4 -7 8
6 .7
6 .9
6 .9
6 .9
7 .0
7 .3
8 .0
8 .5
8 .0
8 .2
5 -7 8
6 .8
7 .1
7 .0
7 .1
7 .2
7 .4
8 .1
8 .5
8 .1
8 .3
9 .5
8 .5
6 -7 8
6 .9
7 .2
7 .2
7 .2
7 .3
7 .6
8 .1
8 .5
8 .2
8 .3
9 .1
8 .4
7 -7 8
7 .0
7 .2
7 .2
7 .3
7 .4
7 .6
8 .1
8 .4
8 .1
8 .2
8 .8
8 .2
8 -7 8
7 .1
7 .3
7 .3
7 .4
7 .5
7 .7
8 .1
8 .3
8 .1
8 .2
8 .7
8 .2
8 .2
8 .0
8 .3
9 -7 8
7 .0
7 .2
7 .2
7 .2
7 .3
7 .5
7 .9
8 .1
7 .8
7 .9
8 .2
7 .7
7 .6
7 .3
7 .1
5 .8
1 0 -7 8
7 .3
7 .6
7 .6
7 .7
7 .8
8 .0
8 .3
8 .6
8 .4
8 .5
8 .9
8 .6
8 .7
8 .7
9 .1
9 .4
1 3 .2
1 1 -7 8
7 .4
7 .6
7 .6
7 .7
7 .8
8 .0
8 .4
8 .6
8 .4
8 .6
8 .9
8 .6
8 .7
8 .7
9 .0
9 .2
1 0 .9
8 .7
1 2 -7 8
7 .4
7 .6
7 .6
7 .7
7 .8
7 .9
8 .3
8 .4
8 .3
8 .4
8 .6
8 .4
8 .4
8 .4
8 .6
8 .6
9 .6
7 .8
1 2 - 7 7 ___ L tTB___Z=2B___Ï r7&__ 4 - 7 8
5-78
5~77 ....6—7,7 — I r l i ,
-77
9-77
10-77 11-77
2 0 3 .1
2 0 4 .1
2 0 5 .8
1 0 .5
^
\
8
. 4
2 0 7 .2
%
2 0 8 .6
8 .1
2 0 9 .9
7 .7
2 1 1 .3F
2 1 2 .3
"
X
¿>-78__ J=2& __ 8 = 1 3 __ 2-Zfi I Q - 7 8
“
2 1 4 .5
2 1 6 .0
6 .9
|
2 1 7 .2
ll-7fl-.
. IN IT IA L MONTH-
R-REVISED
.
n o iW V lr« v.
m ik iÏ
r i w u j b rc c u a x iw c l
r i v u i n a »
%
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
»nVEA i
TERMINAL
MONTH
M
A U ilt
IN IT IA L MONTH
5-77
6-77
acfi»
6-77
7-77
8-77
9-77 10-77 11-77 12-77
1-78
2-78
3-78
1967 * 100
4-78
5-78
6-78
7-78
8-78
9-78 10-78 11-78
-3 0 .2
190.8
7-77
-2 7 .4 - 2 4 .4
186.4
•-77
-2 2 .9 -1 9 .0 -1 3 .3
9-77
-1 9 .0 - 1 4 .8
- 9 .6
- 5 .7
10-77
-1 3 .9
- 9 .3
- 3 .6
1 .6
9 .6
11-77
- 7 .5
- 2 .1
4 .4
11.1
2 0 .6
3 2 .6
11-77
- 6 .0
- 1 .3
4 .2
9 .1
14.5
17 .0
1-78
- 3 .6
1 .0
6 .0
10.3
1 4 .7
16.5
2-78
0 .0
4 .6
9 .6
1 3 .9
1 8 .3
2 0 .6
16 .8
2 4 .3
3 3 .7
3-7«
3 .1
7 .6
12.5
16.7
2 1 .0
2 3 .4
2 1 .2
2 7 .8
34 .4
4-78
5 .3
9 .8
14.4
1 8 .4
2 2 .4
2 4 .6
2 3 .1
2 8 .6
33.3
33.1
31.1
17.0
2 3 .4
17.9
6 .0
184.2
183.3
184.7
189.1
3 .2
189.6
r \
9 .2 ' 1 5 .6
191.9
196.6
\
35.2
201.6
¿0 6 .2
5 .4
9 .4
13.5
2 0 .2
2 1 .8
2 0 .1
2 3 .7
2 5 .9
4-78
5 .9
9 .7
13.5
16.6
19.3
2 0 .6
1 9 .0
2 1 .9
23.2
2 0 .7
16.2
9 .4
7-78
4 *6
8 .0
11.2
1 3 .8
1 5 .9
1 6 .6
1 4.8
16.5
1 6 .7
13.6
8 .7
2 .2
6 .5
9 .3
11.5
13.2
13.5
11 .6
1 2 .7
12.3
9 .0
4 .5
-1 .3
\
. Ì %
2 0 7 .2
1 2 .9 ^ N .
2 0 9 .3
J Ì 4
0 .3 - 1 0 .9
\ ,
2 0 7 .3
- 3 .6 -1 0 .9 -1 1 .0
2 0 5 .3
ï•
5-78
3 .5
9-78
4 .5
7 .4
10.1
1 2 .2
1 3.8
1 4.2
1 2 .5
13.6
13.3
10.7
7 .1
2 .8
2 .0
- 1 .3
3 .8
21.1
10-78
6 .3
9 .1
11.8
1 3 .9
1 5.6
16.1
1 4 .7
1 5 .9
1 5 .9
13.9
11.1
8 .1
8 .5
7 .5
1 4 .4
2 9 .7
3 9 .0
11-78
6 .2
8 .9
11.4
13.3
14 .7
1 5 .2
1 3 .8
1 4 .8
14.7
12.8
1 0 .3
7 .6
7 .9
6 .9
1 1 .9
2 0 .7
2 0 .6
6
12-78
6 .2
8 .8
11.1
12.8
14.2
14.1
14.0
12.2
10.9
17.1
15.8
5 .7
5—77
6-77
7-77
8-77
9-77 10-77 11-77 12-77
1-T8
2-7*
7 -7 8
» -7 8
9— 78
1 0 -7 8
1 4 .5
13 .3
9 .9
3 -7 8
7 .5
4-78
7 .7
* -7 8
6 .9
¿»— 7 8
2 0 8 .6
¿1 4 .4
IN IT IA L MONTH
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE
JA N U A R Y l i t
6
1979
X .
6 .9 }
1 1 -7 «
2 1 5 .2
2 1 6 .4
INDUSTRIAL
RATIO
PRODUCTION
SCALE
RATIO SCALE
1967-100
SEASONALLY ADJ UST ED
1971
1972
1973
PE RC EN TAGE S
ARE
LATEST
PLOTTED«
DA TA
ANNUAL
RATES
1974
OF
DECEMBER
CHANGE
1975
F OR
1976
PERIODS
1967-100
1977
1978
1979
INDICATED.
PRELIMINARY
PREPARED
BY F E D E R A L
RESE RV E
BA NK
OF
ST.
LOUIS
_________ INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
TERMINAL
MONTH
IN IT IA L MONTH
6-77
7-77
f*
f*
1
<8
5-77
9-77 10-77 11-77 12-77
6-77
7 .2
7-77
7 .7
8-77
3 .3
1 .3
-5 .1
9-77
3 .3
2 .0
- 0 .9
3 .5
10-77
3 .4
2 .4
0 .6
3 .5
3 .5
11-77
3 .4
2 .6
1 .3
3 .5
3 .5
3 .5
12-77
3 .4
2 .8
1 .7
3 .5
3 .5
3 .5
3 .5
1-78
2 .0
1 .2
0 .1
1 .2
0 .7
- 0 .3
- 2 .1
r- 7 .5\
2-78
2.1
1 .5
0 .6
1 .6
1 .2
0 .6
- 0 .3
- 2 .1
1-78
2-78
3-78
1967 s 100
4-78
5-78
6-78
7-78
8-78
9-78 10-78 11-78
137.8
8 .1
138.7
138.1
138.5
138.9
139.3
139.7
138 .fa
3 .5
139.2
3-78
3 .4
3 .0
2 .4
3 .5
3 .5
3 .5
3 .5
3 .5
9 .4
15.7
4-78
4 .9
4 .7
4 .3
5 .6
5 .9
6 .3
6 .9
7 .7
13.3
18.5
21.4
5-78
5 .0
4 .8
4 .5
5 .6
5 .9
6 .2
6 .7
7 .*
11.4
14.2
13.5
6-78
5 .3
5 .2
4 .9
5 .9
6 .2
6 .5
7 .0
7 .6
10.9
12.8
11.8
7 .3
8 .7
7-78
5 .7
5 .5
5 .3
6 .3
6 .6
7 .0
7 .4
8 .0
10.8
12.3
11.5
8 .3
8-78
5 .9
5 .8
5 .6
6 .5
6 .8
7 .1
7 .5
8 .0
10.5
11.7
10.9
9-78
5 .9
5 .8
5 .6
6 .5
6 .7
7 .0
7 .4
7 .8
9 .9
10.8
10.0
140.9
143.2
6 .0
/0
143.9
9 .5
10.4
146. 1
8 .4
9 .2
9 .5
8 .5
7 .9
8 .4
8 .2
7 .2
144.9
147.1
5.9
147.8
5 .9
5 .8
5 .7
6 .5
6 .7
7 .0
7 .3
7 .7
9 .5
10.3
9.6
7 .7
8 .0
7 .9
7 .0
6 .3
6 .7
6 .0
5 .9
5.6
6 .6
6 .8
7 .0
7 .3
7 .7
9 .3
10.0
9 .3
7 .7
7.9
7 .8
7 .1
6 .7
7 .1
7 .5
X
14 V.5P
12-78
6 .1
6 .0
5 .9
6 .6
6 .8
7 .1
7 .3
7 .7
9 .2
9 .7
9.1
7 .6
7.9
7 .7
7 .2
6 .9
7 .2
7 .5
7 .5 1
150.4P
5-77
6-77
7-77
8-77
9-77
11-77 12-77
1-78
2-78
3-78
4-78
5-78
6-78
7-78
8-78
0
1
10-78
11-78
14b . 6
9- 78 10-78 11 -78
IN IT IA L MONTH
P - PRELIM INARY
PREPAREO BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF
JANUARY 1 7 , 1979
7
st,
io y is
PERSONAL
RATIO
SCALE
TRILLIONS
INCOME
RATIO
MONTHLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES
OF D O L L A R S
TRILLIONS
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SCALE
OF D O L L A R S
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.7
1 .6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1 .0
0.9
0.8
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
S O UR CE *
PERCENTAGES
AR E ANNUAL
LATEST
PLOTTED*
DATA
RATES
DECEMBER
OF
CHANCE
FOR P E R I O O S
U .S .
1978
1979
DEPA R TM ENT
OF
COMMERCE
INDICATED.
PRELIMINARY
PR EPARED
BY
FEDERAL
RE SE RV E
B A NK
OF
ST.
LOUIS
_____________ P E R S O N A L .I N C O M E ___________
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
TERMINAL
MONTH
IN IT IA L MONTH
5-77
6-77
7.5
6-77
7-77
8-77
9-77 10-77 11-77 12-77
1-78
2-78
3-78
4-78
5-78
6-78
7-78
8-78
-Hi I LIONS. UP
DOLLARS
AMMLIAL B A IrC
9-78 10-78 11-78
19517.4
7-77
10.5
13.5
8-77
8 .9
9 .6
5 .8
9-77
10.0
1 0.8
9 .5
13.4
1C-77
11.3
1 2 .3
11.8
1 5 .0
16.6
11-77
11.5
1 2 .3
12.0
14.2
14 .6
12.6
12-77
11.7
1 2.5
12.3
13.9
14.1
1 2 .9
13.2
1-78
10.8
1 1 .3
11.0
12.1
11.7
10.1
8 .9
2-78
1 0.4
1 0 .8
1 0 .4
11.2
10.8
9 .4
8 .4
6 .0
7 .3
3-78
11.1
11.5
11.2
12.0
11.8
10.9
10*4
9 .5
1 2.0
16.9
4-78
11.7
12.1
12.0
12.8
12.7
12.1
11 .9
1 1 .6
14 .0
17.6
18.2
5-78
11.5
1 1 .9
11.7
12.4
12.3
1 1 .7
11.5
11.2
12 .9
14.8
13.8
9 .5
6-78
11.4
11.8
11.6
12.2
12.1
1 1 .5
11.3
11.0
12.3
13.6
12.6
9 .8
10.1
7-78
11.9
1 2.2
12.1
12 .7
12.6
12 .2
12.1
12 .0
13.3
14.5
13.9
12.5
14.0
18.0
8-78
11.7
1 2 .0
11.8
1 2 .4
12.3
1 1 .8
11.8
11.6
12.6
13.5
12.8
11.5
12.2
13 .2
1*533.5
1 ,5 4 0 .7
1 ,5 5 6 .9
1 ,5 7 7 ,0
1 ,5 9 2 .7
1 ,6 0 9 .2
1 ,6 1 5 .5
4 .8
1 ,6 2 5 .0
1 ,6 4 6 .3
1 ,6 6 9 .4
1 ,6 8 2 .1
1 ,6 9 5 .7
1 ,7 1 9 .2
8 .6
1 ,7 3 1 .1
9-78
11.5
1 1 .8
11.7
12.2
12.1
1 1 .7
11.6
1 1 .4
12.2
13.0
12*3
11.2
11.6
12.1
9 .2
9 .8
10-78
11.9
12.2
12.1
12.5
12.5
12.1
12.1
12.0
12.8
13.5
1 3.0
12.2
12.8
13*4
11.9
13.6
17.6
11-78
11.9
12 .2
12.1
12.5
12.5
12.2
12.1
12.0
12.8
13.4
13.0
12.3
12.7
1 3 .2
12.1
1 3.3
15.0
12.5
12—78
12.0
1 2 .3
12.2
1 2 .6
12.5
12.3
12.2
12.2
12.8
13.4
13.0
12 .4
12.8
13 .3
1 2 .4
1 3 .3
14.5
13 .0
5-77
6-77
7.77
8-77
9 - 7 7 10-77 11-77 12-77
1 - 7 8 __ Z=2fi__ 3 - 7 8
4-78
* - 7 8 __ 6 - 7 8 -- 7-Jfl-- arrlR— .9=28 1 0 - 7 8 11-rTH
_________________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L
1 ,7 4 4 .7
1 ,7 6 8 .4
1 ,7 8 5 .9
1 3 .5
1 »804.BP
HQHTH________________ ______________________________________________________
P - P R ELIM IN A RY .
PREPARED
BY
FED ERAI
JA N U A R Y 18» 1979
8
R FSFRVF
BANK
OF
S
l . l H I1 1 S
RETAIL
SALES
RATIO SCALE
BILLIONS
RATIO SCALE
OF D O L L A R S
1971
1972
BILLIONS
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
1973
1974
1975
1976
SOUR CE i
PERCENTAGES
A RE
LATEST
PLOTTED«
OATA
ANNUAL
RATES
OF
NOVEMBER,
CH A NG E
DECEMBER
FOR P E R IO D S
ADVANCE
1977
U.S .
OF D O L L A R S
1978
DEPA R TM ENT
1979
OF
COMMERCE
INDICATED.
ESTIM ATE
P R EP A R E D
BY
FEDERAL
RE SERVE
B AN K
OF
ST.
LOUIS
RETAIL SALES
C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S OP C H A N G E
TERMINAL
MONTH
INITIAL MONTH
5-77
6-77
7-77
6 .5
18.4
8 .0
14 .6
1
-4 .1
OD
1
-4
6-77
7-77
8-77
9-77 10-77 11-77 12-77
1-78
2-78
MILLIONS OF
DOLLARS
4-78
5-78
6-78
8-78
9-78 10-78 11-78
58.66V
10.9
5 V . 177
9-77
7 .2
1 1.2
7 .8
4 .9
11 .4
1 5 .6
14.7
1 6 .7
2 9 .9
11-77
12.8
16 .5
16.0
17.8
2 4.8
2 0 .0
12-77
11.4
1 4.2
1 3.3
14.0
17.2
11.3
1-78
5 .0
6 .4
4 .5
3 .3
2 .9
5V.412
60.720
61.650
3 .2
61.813
59,987
- 4 .7 -15.1 -30.2
2-78
8 .1
9 .7
8 .6
8 .2
8 .8
4 .1
- 0 .7
- 2 .5
36.1
3-78
9 .6
1 1.2
10.3
1 0 .3
11.2
7 .8
4 .9
5 .5
29.8
23.7
61.548
11.1
1 2 .7
12.1
12.3
13.3
10.8
9 .1
10.6
2 8 .9
25.4
27.2
CD
62,649
10.7
12.2
11.6
11.7
12.6
10.3
8 .8
9 .9
23.1
19.1
16.8
7 .3
6-78
10.3
1 1 .6
11 .0
1 1 .0
11.7
9 .6
8 .2
9.1
19.3
15.4
12.8
6 .2
5.2
7-78
9 .2
1 0 .3
9 .7
9 .6
10.0
8 .0
6 .6
7 .1
15.1
11.2
8.3
2 .7
0.5
- 4 .0
8-78
10.6
1 1 .8
11.3
11.3
11.9
10.2
9 .2
10.0
17.4
14.5
12.8
9 .4
10.1
1 2 .7
1
7-78
57 , 8 5 1
10-77
4-78
3-78
63.917
64.292
64.565
64.343
65,862
3 2.3
66,347
9-78
10.5
1 1 .6
11.1
11.1
11.7
10.2
9 .2
9 .9
16.3
13.7
12.2
9 .4
9 .9
11.5
2 0 .2
9 .2
10-78
11.1
12 .1
11.7
11.8
12.3
11.0
10.2
10.9
16.8
14.6
13.3
11.2
12*0
1 3 .7
2 0 .3
1 4 .7
2 0 .6
11-78
11.3
12 .3
11.9
1 2 .0
12.5
11 .3
10.6
1 1 .3
1 6 .6
14.6
13.5
1 1.7
12.5
14.0
19.0
14.8
17.8
15.1
12-78
11.4
1 2 .3
12.0
12.1
12.6
1 1 .4
10.8
11.4
16.3
14.5
13.5
11.9
12.6
13.8
17.8
14.4
1 6 .2
14.1
5-77
6-77
7-77
8-77
9-77 10-77 11-77 12-77
1-78
2-78
3-78
4-78
5-78
6-78
7-78
8-78
9-78 10-78 11-78
67,389
68.181P
13.2
68.889E
INITIAL MONTH
P- PRELIMINARY
E- ESTIMATED
PREPA RED BY F E D E R A L R ES E R V E BANK OF S T . L O U IS
JA N U ARY 11« 1979
9
HOURLY CO MPENSATION, P R IV A T E B U S IN E S S SECTOR
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE__________
T E R M I N A L __________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L Q U A R T E R _________________________________________________________________ 1 9 6 7 * I O O
QUARTER
J L rX4
4-74
2-74
3-74
4-75
4-77
1-75 - 2 - 7 3 . 3 - 7 5
1-76
1-78
3-78
3-77
2-76
1-77
2-78
3-76
4-76
2-77
_
13.0
ir74
_jj. 5
14,0
4-7 4
.12*6.
12.3
10.7
1-75
12.1
11.7
10.6
10.6
2-75
11.2
10.8
9.7
9.3
3-75
10.5
10.0
9.0
4-75
10.3
9.8
1-76
10. 1
2-76
9.9
3-76
9.9
4-76
9.8
162.3
167.7
172.0
176.4
I
" < s r /0
7.9
's.
179.8
8.5
7.4
6.8
182.8
9.0
8.6
7.9
7.9
9.0
9.7
9.0
8.7
8.2
8.3
9.1
9.1
_..9 , 6
8.9
8.7
8. 3
8 »3
8.8
8.7
8.4
9.6
9.0
8.8
8.5
8.6
9.0
9.0
9.0
9.6
9.5
9.0
8.8
8.5
8.6
9.0
9.0
9.0
9.2
v
186.8
19U.9
194.9
199.3
8.9
203.6
1— 77
9.6
9.3
8.9
8.7
a.5
8.5
8.8
Ö. 8
8.7
8.8
3.4
\ 8 . 3 %
7.9 ^ - V
2-77
9.4
9. 1
8.6
8.4
8.2
8.2
8.4
8. 3
8.1
8.1
7. 6
6.9
5 .9
8.5
8.3
8.3
8.0
7.7
7 .7
1
_
2 — 74
9 .4
9. 1
8.7
8. 5
8.3
8.3
8.5
4-77
9.2
8.9
8.5
8.4
8.1
8.2
8.3
8.2
8.1
8.1
7.8
7.5
7.3
8.0
6.7
l-78_
9.4
9. 1
8.8
8.6
8.5
8.5
8.7
8.7
8.6
8.6
8.5
8.4
8.5
9.4
9.4
12.2
2-78
9.3
9.1
8.7
8.6
8.4
8.5
8.6
8. 6
8.5
8 .6
8.4
8.3
8.4
9.1
9.0
10. 1
8.0
3-78
9.4
9,1
8. 8
8.7
8.6
8.6
8.8
8.8
8.7
8 .8
8.7
8.6
8.8
9.4
9.3
10.2
9.3
10. 5
4-78
9.3
9. 1
8.8
8.7
8.6
8.6
8.8
8.8
8.7
8.8
8.7
8.6
8.7
9 .2
9.2
9.8
9.0
9,5
1-74
2-74
3-74
4-74
1-75
2-75
3-75
4-75
1-76
2-76
3-76
4-76
1-77
2-77
3-77
4-77
1-78
2-78
9.4
207.5
¿10.5
215.3
218.8
225.2
229.6
235.4
..." '
240.3P
3-76
INITIAL QUARTER
O U T P U T PER HOUR OF ALL PERSONS, P R I VA T E B U SI N E S S SECTOR
_____________ C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S O F C H A N G E ________________
TERMINAL__________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L Q U A R T E R _________________________________________________________________1 9 6 7 « 1 0 0
QUARTER
4-74
1-74
2 —7* 3-74
1-7 5
4-77
1-78
2-75
3-75
4-75
1-76
2-76
4-76
1-77
2-77 3-77
2-78
3-78
3-76
2-74
-1.8
3-74
-1.8
-1.8
110*4
4-74
-2.0
-2.2
-2.5
1- 7 5
-1.4
-1.2
-0.9
2-75
1.0
1.7
2.9
5.8
11.0
3-75
2.2
3.0
4.3
6.6
9.7
8.4\
4-75
1.6
2.2
3.0
4.5
5.8
3.2
-1.7
1-76
2.0
2.6
3.3
4.5
5. 5
3.7
1.4
4.6
2-76
2. 1
2.5
3.2
4.2
4.9
3.4
1. 7
3.5
2.4
109.9
109.2
109.4
0.7 r
9.7%
-112.3
114.6
114.1
.. 1 1 5 . 4
116.1
3-76
2.2
2.7
3.2
4.1
4.6
3.4
2.2
3. 5
3.0
3.5
4-76
2.0
2.4
2.9
3.6
4.0
2.9
1.8
2.7
2.1
1.9
1-77
2.1
2.4
2.9
3.5
3.8
2. 8
1.9
2.7
2.2
2.1
1.4
2.4
1.4
1.9
1.4
1.1
0.3
0.3
2-77
1.8
2.1
2.4
2.9
3. 2
2. 2
117.1
0.3
..
__UZ«2..
\1.3%
_ 117.9
117.4
3-77
2.0
2.3
2.7
3.1
3.4
2.6
1.9
2.4
2.0
1.9
1.5
1.9
1.7
5.2
4-77
1. 9
2.2
2.5
2.9
3.1
2.3
1.7
2. 1
1.8
1.7
1.3
1.5
1.2
2.7
1-78
1.5
1.7
2.0
2.3
2.4
1.7
1.0
1.4
0.9
0.7
0.3
0.3
-0.3
0.2
-2.2
2-78
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.2
2.4
1.7
l.l
1. 4
1.0
0.8
0.4
0.5
0.1
0.5
- l. Q
- X I? tO
117.6
_
rl_.7
l
.4
3-78
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.3
2.4
1.8
1.3
1.5
1.2
1.1
0.8
0.9
0.6
i.l_
0 ,L .
4-78
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.3
2.4
1.8
1.3
1.6
1.3
1.2
0.9
1.0
0. 8
1.2
0.5
0.5
2.3
2. 7
119.0
1-74
2-74
3-74
4-74
1-75
2-75
3-75
4-75
1-76
2-76
3-76
4-76
1-77
2-77
3-77
4-77
1-78
2-78
..fit.fi. . ¿ * 4 ..
2.0 Ì
119.6P
3-78
INITIAL QUARTER
P- PRELIM INARY
PREPA RED BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E
JA N U AR Y 2 6 , 1979
10
BANK OF S T *
L O U IS
.
PRODUCT I V I T Y ,
RATIO
COMPENSATION, AND LABOR COSTS
SCALE
RATIO
1967-100
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
1971
1 97 2
1973
1974
1975
1 97 6
1 97 7
SOURCEt
PERCENTAGES
ARE
LATEST
PLOTTED»
DATA
ANNUAL
RATES
4TH
OF
QU ART E R
CHANGE FOR P E R I O D S
SCALE
1967-100
U .S .
1978
1979
DEPARTMENT
OF
LAB OR
ST.
LOUIS
INDICATED.
PR ELIMI NARY
PR EPARED
BY F E D ER A L
R E S ER VE
BANK
OF
U NIT LA6UR COSTS, PRIVATE BUS I N E S S S E CTOR
________________________ C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E ________________________
T E R M I N A L ___________________________ ___ ___________________________________I N I T I A L Q U A R T E R _________________________________________________________________ 1 9 6 7 « 1 0 0
QUARTER
1-74 2-74
3-74
4-74
1-76
2-7 6
3-76 4 - 7 6
1-75
2-75
3-75
4-75
1-77
2-77
3-77
4-77
1-78
2-78
3-78
2-74
15.2
3-74
15. 6
147.0
16. 1
15 2 . 6
4-74
15.C
14.9
13.8
1-75
13.6
13.1
11.6
9.5
2-75
10.1
8.9
6.6
3. 2
O 1 07
X-.'/o
-2.7
V
3-75
8.1
6.7
4.5
1.6
-2.1
4-75
8.5
7.5
5.8
3.9
2.2
4.7
1r
11 . 2
1-76
6.0
7.0
5.5
3.9
2.6
4.4
7.5
4.0
2-76
7.7
6.8
5. 5
4.2
3.2
4.7
6.9
4.8
5> \
3-76
7.5
6.7
5.6
4.5
3.6
5. 0
6.6
5. 2
5.8
5.8
4-76
7.7
6.9
6. 0
5.Ü
4.4
5. 6
7.1
6. 1
6.8
7.4
9 .0
1-77
7. 4
6.8
5.9
5. 0
4.5
5. 6
6.8
5.9
6 .4
6.7
7.1
2-77
7. 5
6.8
6.0
5. 3
4.8
5.8
6.9
6. 2
6.7
6.9
7.3
6.4
7.7 \
3-77
7.2
6.6
5.9
5. 2
4.8
5. 6
6.6
5. 9
6.2
6.3
6.5
5.6
5.9
4-77
7.2
6.6
5.9
5.3
4.9
5. 7
6.5
6.0
6. 2
6.3
6.4
5.8
6.0
5.2
6.3
1-78
7.8
7.3
6.7
6. 2
5.9
t>.7
7.6
7.2
7.6
7.8
8.2
8. 0
8.7
9.1
11.7
17.3
2-78
7.7
7.3
6.7
6.2
6 .0
6. 7
7.5
7.1
7.5
7. 7
8. 0
7.8
8.4
8.5
10.1
12.0
6.9
3-78
7.7
7.2
6.7 _ 6.2
6.0
6.7
7.4
7. 1
7.4
7.6
7.8
7.7
8.1
8.2
9.2
10.2
6. a
6.7
4-78
7.6
7.2
6.7
6.3
6.0
6.7
7.4
7.0
7.3
7.5
7.7
7.5
7. 9
7.9
8.7
9.2
6.7
6.6
1-74
2-74
3-74
4-74
1-75
2-75
3-75
4-75
1-76
2-76
3- 7 6
4-76
1-77
2-77
3-77
4-77
1-78
2-78
157.6
,
161.2
160.1
159.5
163.8
165.4
167.7
170.1
17 3 . 8
^ f %
176.0
17 9 . 3
4.1
181.1
183.9
191.4
194.6
19 7 . 8
6.4 1
2 0 0 . 9P
3-78
INITIAL QUARTER
P- PRELIMINARY
P R EP A R ED B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E
JA N U A R Y 2 6 , 1979
11
BANK OF S T .
L O U IS
..GROSS NAXLQNAL P R ODUCT. IN CURRENT DO LLARS
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL R A T ES OF CHANGE
terminal
INITIAL
IMIARTP»
*
N
1
1 -7 4
2 -7 4
3 -7 4
4 -7 4
2 -7 5
1 -7 5
3 -7 5
4 -7 5
1 -7 6
i U 1.1.I O N S O F
DOLLARS
QUARTER
2 -7 6
3 -7 6
1 -7 7
4 -7 6
2 -7 7
3 -7 7
4 -7 7
1 -7 8
2 -7 8
3 -7 8
9 .4
3 -7 4
9 .1
4 -7 4
8 .2
1 ,4 0 0 .1
8 *9
1 ,4 3 0 .1
r \ 3 . 5 %
7 .6
6 .4
1 ,4 5 2 .4
1 -7 5
6 .3
5 .2
3 .5
0 . 6 ^
2 -7 5
7 .5
7 .0
6 .*
6 .5
1 2 .6
3 -7 5
9 .3
9 .3
9 .4
1 0 .4
1 5 .6
1 8 .6
4 -7 5
9 .2
9 .2
9 .3
1 0 .0
1 3 .3
1 3 .7
1 -7 6
9 .8
9 .8
1 0 .0
1 0 .7
1 3 .4
1 3 .7
1
(M
4
9 .7
9 .7
9 .8
1 0 .4
1 2 .5
1 2 .5
1 0 .5
1 1 .2
8 .9
3 -7 6
9 .4
9 .5
9 .5
1 0 .0
1 1 .6
1 1 .4
9 .7
9 .9
8 .1
7 .4
4 -7 6
9 .3
9 .3
9 .4
9 .8
1 1 .1
1 0 .9
9 .4
9 .5
8 .2
7 .8
1 -7 7
9 .7
9 .7
9 .8
1 0 .2
1 1 .4
1 1 .3
1 0 .1
1 0 .3
9 .5
9 .7
1 0 .9
1 3 .7 ^
2 -7 7
1 0 .0
1 0 .1
1 0 .2
1 0 .6
1 1 .7
1 1 .6
1 0 .6
1 0 .9
1 0 .4
10*8
1 1 .9
1 3 .8
14 .0 ^ ^
3 -7 7
1 0 .1
1 0 .1
1 0 .3
1 0 .6
1 1 .7
1 1 .6
1 0 .7
1 1 .0
1 0 .5
1 0 .8
1 1 .7
1 2 .9
1 2 .5
11 . 1 s
4 -7 7
1 0 .0
1 0 .1
1 0 .2
1 0 .5
1 1 .4
1 1 .3
1 0 .5
1 0 .7
1 0 .3
1 0 .5
1 1 .2
1 1 .9
1 1 .3
1 0 .0
1 -7 8
9 .8
9 .9
9 .9
1 0 .2
1 1 .0
1 0 .9
1 0 .2
1 0 .3
9 .9
1 0 .0
1 0 .5
1 0 .9
1 0 .3
9 .0
8 .0
2 -7 8
1 0 .4
1 0 .5
1 0 .6
1 0 .9
1 1 .8
1 1 .7
1 1 .1
1 1 .3
1 1 .0
1 1 .3
1 1 .9
1 2 .5
1 2 .2
1 1 .8
1 2 .0
1 3 .7
2 0 . 6 s
3 -7 8
1 0 .4
1 0 .5
1 0 .6
1 0 .8
1 1 .6
1 1 .5
1 1 .0
1 1 .1
1 0 .9
1 1 .1
1 1 .6
1 2 .1
1 1 .8
1 1 .4
1 1 .4
1 2 .3
1 5 .0
4 -7 8
1 0 .6
1 0 .7
1 0 .8
1 1 .1
1 1 .8
1 1 .7
1 1 .2
1 1 .4
1 1 .2
1 1 .5
1 1 .9
1 2 .4
1 2 .2
1 1 .9
1 2 .1
1 2 .9
1 4 .9
1 2 .2
1 4 .7 ^
1 -7 4
2 -7 4
3 -7 4
4 -7 4
1 -7 5
2 -7 5
3 -7 5
4^*75
1 -7 A
2 -7 A
V -7 A
4 k— 7 Â
1 -7 7
2— 7 7
Ï - 7 7
-4*— T 7
1 -7 R
7 -7 «
* -7 £
1 ,4 5 4 .7
\
l
1 ,4 9 8 .6
. 4 %
3
1 ,5 6 4 .0
9 «o 'V
1 1 .3
1 ,5 9 8 .0
1 3 . 6X
1 ,6 4 9 .7
r
1 ,6 8 5 .4
1 ,7 1 5 .6
8 .2 V
1 ,7 4 9 .8
1 ,8 0 6 .8
2
%
1 ,8 6 7 .0
1 ,9 1 6 .8
1 ,9 5 8 .1
8 .9 ^
1 ,9 9 2 .0
7 . 1 s
2 ,0 8 7 .5
2 ,1 3 6 .1
9 . 6 s
2 * 2 1 0 .8 P
. I N I T I A L . 1Q U A R T E R
COMPOUNDED
TERMINAL
OilâDTCB
ANNUAL RATES
INITIAL
1-74
2-74
3-74
4-74
1-75
2-75
2-74
-1.8
3-74
-2.2
-2.5 p x ^ 7 . 3 %
4-74
-3.3
-4.0
-5.5
V
1-75
-4.8
-5.7
-7.3
—9.0 f
2-75
-2.6
-2.8
-2.9
— 1.6
6.4
3-75
-0.6
-0.3
0.3
2.3
8.4
10.5
4-75
-0.1
0.2
0.7
2.4
6.5
6.5
1-76
1.0
1.4
2.1
3.7
7.2
7.4
2-76
1.4
1.8
2.4
3.8
6.5
3-76
1.5
1.9
2.4
3.6
5.9
3-75
4-75
1-76
1O F C H A N G E
1Q U A R T E R
3-76
2-76
4-76
1-77
2-77
3-77
*-77
1-78
2-78
(411 | i n M S n F
DOLLARS
iNMli 1
3-78
1,22*.5
1,216.9
1,199.7
1,171.6
1,189.9
7.2%
X
1,220.0
2.6
1,227.9
5.9
9.3^
6.6
5.3
6.6
4.0
5.8
4*6
5.3
3.4
1,255.5
1,268.0
2.7
1 ,27e> .5
4-76
1.6
1.9
2.4
3.5
5.4
5.2
4.2
4.6
3.0
2.5
2.4
1-77
2.0
2.4
2.9
3.9
5.6
5.5
4.7
5.1
4.1
4.1
4*8
7.3
2-77
2.3
2.7
3.2
4.1
5.6
5.5
4.9
5.2
4.4
4.5
5.2
6.6
1 ,264.0
1,306.7
5.9
\ 4 .A 4 Ay °
o7
3-77
2.6
2.9
3.4
4.2
5.6
5.6
5.0
5.3
4.6
4.8
5.3
6.3
5.8
5.7
4-77
2.6
2.9
3.4
4.1
5.4
5.3
4.8
5.0
4.4
4.5
4.9
5.5
4.9
4.4
1,343.9
1-78
2.4
2.7
3.1
3.8
4.9
4.8
4.3
4.4
3.9
3.8
4.0
4.4
3.6
2.9
1.5
-0.1
4.9
4.4
4.4
4.7
5.1
4.6
4.3
3.9
4.2
8.7
3.2
l,354.i>
1,354.2
2-78
2.8
3.1
3.5
4.1
5.2
5.1
4.7
3-78
2.8
3.1
3.4
4.0
5.0
4.9
4.5
4.7
4.2
4.2
4« 4
4.7
4.3
4.0
3.5
3.6
5.6
2.6
4-— 7 8
2.9
3.2
3.6
4.2
5.1
5.0
4.6
4.8
4.4
4.4
4.6
4.9
4.5
4.3
4.0
4.3
5.8
4.3
1-74
7 — 74-
3— 7 4
4-74
1-75
2-75
3-75
4-75
2-76
3-76
*-76
1-77
7— 7 7
*-77
1-76.
1-78
1,382.6
2-7JB-
1,391.4
6.1 1
1 ,412.2P
^1— 7 R
I N I T I A L 1Q U A R T E R .
P - PHI-1 r M I N A R V
_
... ..
......... .......... .
.
-
... .
P B F P A R P n B Y F E D F R A L .R E S E R V E
JA N U AR Y 1 8 , 1979
12
— . BANK
ili: -ST. L O U I S —
GROSS N A T I O N A L
RATI O
SCALE
1971
PRODUCT
QUART ERL Y TOTAL S AT ANNUAL
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
SOURCE:
PERCENTAGES
ARE ANNUAL
LATEST DATA P LOTTED:
RATES
OF
C H A N G E FOR P E R I O D S
RATIO
RATES
1977
U .S .
1978
DEPARTMENT
SCALE
1979
OF C O M M E R C E
INDICATED.
4TH QUARTER P R E L I M I N A R Y
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T.
13
LOUIS
GENERAL P R I C E
RATIO
INDEX*
SCALE
RATIO SCALE
19 7 2 - 1 0 0
197 2- 10 0
1971
*AS
USED
1972
IN
NATION AL
PERCENTA6ES
ARE
LATEST
PLOTTEDt
DA TA
1973
I N COME
A N N UA L
RATES
4TH
1974
1975
1976
ACC OUNTS
OF
1977
SOURCEi
C H A NC E
FOR P E R IO D S
U .S .
1978
1979
DE PA RTMENT
OF
COMMERCE
INDICATED.
QU ART ER P R E L I M I N A R Y
PREPARED
BY
FEDERAL
R ESE RVE
BA NK
OF
ST.
LOUIS
_____ IMP-Licnr PR IC E DEFLATOR FIX GROS S NATIONAL fPRODUCT
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
TERMINAL
IN IT IA L QUARTER
1972 = 100
OIUBTPB
........
2-74
3-74
4-74
1-75
2-75
3-75
4-75
1-76
2-76
3-76
4-76
1-77
2-77
4-77
3-77
1-78
2-78
3 -78
2-74
1 1 .5
11 4 .3*
3-74
11.5
117.52
4-74
\ j l . 6 %
i l . ò ""
v
12.6 ^
11.9
12.1
1-75
11.6
1 1 .6
2-75
1 0 .4
1 0 .2
9 .7
8 .2
5 .9
3-75
9 .9
9 .6
9 .1
7 .9
6 .6
7 .3 <V
4-75
9 .4
9 .0
8 .5
7 .5
6 .5
6 .8
6 .2
1-76
8 .7
6 .3
7 .7
6 .8
5 .8
5 .8
5.1
3 .9 s
2-76
8 .2
7 .8
7 .3
6 .4
5 .6
5 .5
4 .9
4 .3
4 .7 \ ^ 7 %
3-76
7 .8
7 .4
6 .9
6 .2
5 .4
5 .3
4 .8
4 .4
4 .6
4 .5
4-76
7 .6
7 .3
6 .8
6 .1
5 .5
5 .4
5 .0
4 .7
5 .0
5.1
5 .7
1-77
7 .5
7 .2
6 .7
6 .1
5 .5
5 .5
5 .2
5 .0
5 .2
5 .4
5 .9
6 .0
2-77
7 .5
7 .2
6 .8
6 .2
5 .8
5 .8
5 .5
5 .4
5 .7
6 .0
6 .5
6 .8
7 .7
1 1 .6
121.06
1 0 .6 \
124.16
125.95
128.19
130.14
131.40
132.92
13*.39
136.28
\
136.27
140.86
3-77
7 .3
7 .0
6 .7
6 .1
5 .7
5 .7
5 .5
5 .4
5 .6
5.8
6 .1
6 .3
6 .4
5 .1
4—77
7 .2
6 .9
6 .6
6 .1
5 .7
5 .7
5 .5
5 .4
5 .6
5.8
6 .0
6 .1
6.1
5 .3
5 .5 S
1-78
7 .2
6 .9
6 .6
6 .2
5 .8
5 .8
5 .7
5 .6
5.8
6.0
6 .2
6 .3
6 .4
5 .9
6 .4
7 .2
2-78
7 .4
7 .2
6 .9
6 .5
6 .2
6 .2
6 .1
6 .1
6 .4
6 .6
6 .9
7 .1
7.3
7 .2
7 .9
9.1
3-78
7 .4
7 .2
6 .9
6 .5
6 .3
6 .3
6 .2
6 .2
6 .4
6 .6
6 .9
7 .0
7.2
7 .1
7 .6
8 .3
8 .9
6 .9 ^
4—78
7 .4
7 .2
7 .0
6 .6
6 .4
6 .4
6 .3
6 .4
6 .6
6 .8
7 .0
7 .2
7.3
7 .3
7 .7
8 .3
8 .6
7 .5
1-7*
7 -7 *
*- 7 *
4-74
1-75
7-75
3-75
*-75
1-76
7-7#»
3 - Î&
4-7&
1-77
7-77
V r IZ __ hrrll
1-7Ä
142.63
144.56
147.10
^ \ 8 .3 %
11.0
15U.98
15^.i>2
8 .1 ^
—
a- z a
1 * 6 .5*P
.
IM IT I Al Oil ART FR
D
- --
POPI TMTMtBV
PttPPARFO ftV.fefcIlF.ftA»
JANUARY 1 8 ,
14
1979
-- -BFtfHMF
BAJtK ...Ofc. s t . ra m s ,
.
C O M P O U N D E O A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E
TERMINAL
ATI 1 inNÇ ilF
DOLLARS
I N I T I A L tQ U A R T E R
AMMIIAI
Q11ARTFR
1-74
2-74
3-74
4-74
1-75
2-75
3-75
4-75
1-76
2-76
3-76
4-76
1-77
3-77
4-77
1-78
2-78
UATFS
3-78
8 7 9 ./
2-74
12.3
3-74
13.3
1 4 .3
4-74
9 .8
8 .6
909.0
3 .2
V lb .2
9 3 * .7
1-75
9 .6
8 .7
6 .0
8 .8
2-75
10.3
9 .7
8 .3
10 .9
13.1
3-75
10 .7
1 0 .3
9 .4
11.5
12.8
12.6
4-75
1 0.8
1 0 .5
9 .8
11.5
1 2.4
12.1
1-76
11.1
1 0 .9
1 0 .4
11.8
12.6
1 2.5
1 2 .4
13.2
2-76
10 .8
1 0 .6
10.1
1 1 .3
11.8
1 1 .4
1 1 .0
1 0 .7
8 .3
3-76
10.6
1 0 .4
9 .9
1 0 .9
11.3
1 0 .9
10.5
10.1
8 .6
9 6 ^ .9
9 9 *. Ü
1 ,0 2 1 .&
11 .6
l,0 i> 3 .tt
1 ,0 7 5 .1
1, 0
9 .0
9 8
.H
1 ,1 3 3 .7
4-76
1 0 .9
1 0 .7
10.3
11.2
11.6
11.3
11.1
11.0
10.2
11.2
13.5
1-77
1 1 .0
1 0 .9
10.5
11.4
11.7
1 1 .5
11.3
11.3
10.8
11.6
13.0
12.5
2-77
10.7
10.6
10.2
1 1 .0
11.2
11.0
10.8
10.6
10.1
10.6
11.1
9 .9
7 .4
10.8
11 .0
10.8
10.5
10 .4
9 .9
10.2
10.6
9 .6
8.2
3-77
2-77
1 ,1 6 7 .7
L »1 8 8 .0
9 .0
10.6
10 .5
10.1
4-77
10.8
1 0 .7
1 0 .4
11.1
11.3
11.1
10.9
10.8
10.5
10.9
11.3
10.7
10.1
11.5
14.1
1-78
10.6
10.5
10.2
10.7
10.9
10.7
10.5
1 0 .4
10.1
10.3
10.5
10.0
9 .3
1 0 .0
10.5
7 .0
2-78
10.8
10 .8
10.5
11.1
11.2
11.1
11.0
1 0 .9
10.6
10.9
11.2
10.8
10.5
1 1 .3
12.1
11.1
1 , 2 1 4 .
!>
1 ,2 5 i> .2
1 ,2 7 6 .7
1 ,3 2 ? .9
1 5 .3
3-78
10.8
1 0 .7
10.5
1 1 .0
11.2
11.1
10.9
10.9
10.6
10.9
11.1
10.8
10.5
11.2
1 1 .7
1 0 .9
1 3 .0
1 0 .7
4-78
1 1 .0
10 .9
10.7
11.2
11 .4
11 .3
11.2
11.1
10.9
1 1 .2
11.5
11.2
1 1 .0
11 .6
12.2
11.7
1 3 .3
1 2.3
1 4 .0
1 -7 *
2 -7 *
3-74
4-74
1-75
2-75
3 -7 5
4 -7 5
1 -7 6
2-76
3-76
4-76
1 -7 7
7 -7 7
* -7 7
* -7 7
1 -7 8
7 -7 H
3 -7 8 ...
1 ,3 5 * 6 .9
1 ,* U 2 .2 P
INITIAL QUARTER
______________________________________________________ PERSONAL CONSUMP T ION EXPENDITURES-IM._19.72 DOLLARS_______________________________________________________
C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ B I L L I O N S O F
TERMINAL
INITIAL QUARTER
DOLLARS
1-74
2-74
2-74
3-74
4-74
1-75
2-75
3-75
4-75
1-76
0 .1
2-76
3-76
4-76
1—77
2-77
3-77
4-77
1-78
2—78
3-78
761.7
7t>6.6
3-74
1 .3
2 .6
*-74
-1 .5
- 2 .3
-7 .0
1-75
—0 .6
- 0 .8
-2 .4
2 .3
2-75
0 .9
1.1
0 .6
4 .6
7 .0
752.9
75F.2
3-75
1 .6
1 .9
1.7
4 .8
6 .0
5 .0
4-75
2 .2
2 .6
2.5
5.1
6 .0
5 .5
6 .0
1-76
2 .9
3 .3
3 .4
5 .6
6 .5
6 .3
6 .9
7 .9
2-76
3 .0
3 .4
3 .5
5 .3
6 .0
5 .7
5 .9
5 .9
3 .9
3-76
3 .0
3 .4
3 .5
5.1
5 .5
5 .2
5 .3
5 .1
3 .7
3.4
4-76
3 .5
3 .8
3 .9
5 .4
5 .8
5 .6
5 .8
5 .0
5.5
7 .7
1-77
3 .6
3 .9
4 .1
5 .4
5 .7
5 .6
5 .6
5 .0
5.4
6 .4
5 .1
2-77
3 .4
3 .7
3 .8
4 .9
5 .2
5 .0
5 .0
4 .9
4 .3
4 .4
4 .7
3 .2
1.4
3-77
3 .5
3 .7
3 .8
4 .9
5 .1
4 .9
4 .9
4 .7
4 .2
4.3
4 .5
3 .5
2 .7
4 .1
856.0
4-77
3 .8
4 .1
4 .2
5 .2
5 .5
5 .3
5 .3
5 .3
4 .9
5.1
5 .4
4 .8
4 .8
6 .5
876.6
1
770.2
4 .7
4 .9
4 .7
4 .6
4 .1
4.1
4 .2
3 .6
3 .2
3 .8
3 .6
- 1 .4
5 .0
4 .8
4 .8
4 .7
4 .3
4.3
4 .5
4 .0
3 .7
4 .3
4 .4
2 .2
6 .0
779 .7
791.1
806.3
81**0
820.9
836.2
846 .4>
8 *9 .5
o
•
3 .7
3 .8
3 .6
3 .9
3 .9
3-78
3 .7
3 .9
4 .0
4 .7
4 .9
4 .7
4 .7
4 .6
4 .3
4 .3
4 .4
4 .0
3 .8
4 .3
4 .3
2 .8
5 .0
4 .0
4-78
3 .8
4 .0
4 .1
4 .9
5 .0
4 .9
4 .9
4 .8
4 .5
4 .6
4 .7
4 .3
4 .2
4 .7
4 .8
3 .8
5 .6
5 .4
_L-7fr
2=7*
a«rIA_ 4r*7A.._ 1-77
2-77
Ir7.4_ 2.=J.4l „ *- 7 *
CO
•
CD
*
87i.5
3 .5
2-78
4—7 4 _ - L r - 75
JÎ.-75l_ ¿rr75
3 - 7 Ì. A r l L
tttìb.3
895.1
6 .8
910.OP
.
1—28- ¿ —18- i - i a
_______________________________ ___________________ _________________________________ I N I T I A L Q U A R T E R ----------------------------------- „ ---------------------------------------------P - P R E L I M I N A R Y ________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________________________________
.............................................. ... ............. .........:____ _______ ______________ __________________________________________ P R E P A H E P
JANUARY
15
ftV F E D E R A L
18»
1979
a fc S E 8 M E RA M *
I1E S T .
If f llH
______________________________
_________________________ ja * OS £ P R IV A T E DOMESTIC
INVESTM ENT
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL R ATES
IN _ CURRENT DO LLARS______________________
OF CHANGE
----- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Rli-LLONS QH.
TtRHINAL
INITIAL QUARTER
DOLLARS
1-74
2-74
2-74
3-74
4-74
1-75
2-75
3- 7 5
4 — 75
3-76
2-76
1-76
4-76
1-77
2-77
3-77
4-77
1-78
2-78
3-78
u>
1
-J
4.9
219.9
*
-6.0 -15.7
4-74
—4 . 2
-8.5
210 *7
—0.6
210.4
1-75
-18.2 -24.7 -28.9 -49.1
2-75
-15.8 -20.3 -21.8 -30.7
177.7
-5.5
175.2
-3.2
-4.8
-1.9
-2.3
35.4
4-75
-3.6
-4.9
-2.6
-3.1
20.1
35.4
-5.5
1-76
3.2
3.0
6.5
7.9
30.3
45.0
25.3
66.2
2-76
5.2
5.2
8.6
10.2
28.7
39.0
24.3
42.6
22.4
3-76
5.8
5.8
8.9
10.3
25.5
32.9
20.8
31.2
16.5
4-76
4.8
4.8
7.3
8.4
20.7
25.8
15.3
21.2
9.1
3.0
-4.4
1-77
7.8
8.1
10.8
12.2
23.8
28.7
20 «2
26 . 1
17.7
16.2
18.9
47.9
2-77
9.9
10.4
13.1
14.6
25.4
29.9
22.6
28 . 1
21.6
21.4
25.1
43.1
38.5
3-77
10.7
11.1
13.7
15.1
24.9
28.8
22.4
27.0
21.4
21.2
23.9
35.1
29.2
20.5
4-77
10.3
10.7
13.0
14.2
22.9
26.2
20.3
24.0
18.9
18.3
19.9
26.9
20.5
12.5
5.0
1-78
10.4
10.8
13.0
14.1
22.0
24.9
19.5
22.6
18.1
17.5
18.6
23.8
18.4
12.4
8.6
12.3
2 —78
11.5
12.0
14.1
15.2
22.7
25.4
20.5
23.5
19.5
19.1
20.3
25.0
20.9
16.8
15.7
21.4
31.2
3-78
11.2
11.6
13.5
14.5
21.4
23.7
19.2
21.7
18.0
17.5
18.4
22.0
18.2
14.5
13.0
15.9
17.7
5.6
11.2
11.6
13.4
14.4
20.7
22.8
18.6
20.9
17.4
16.9
17.6
20.7
17.2
14.0
12.8
14.8
15.7
8.6
11.7
1-74
7-74*
^-74
4-74
1-7S
7-7*5
3-75
4-75
1-76.
2-76
3-76
4-76
1-77
7-77
3-77
4-77
1-7R
?-7H
A-TR
1
or
3-75
94.1
2 0 6 . tt
203.9
¿31.5
243.5
10.9
2*9.9
2*7.1
272.5
295.6
309.7
313.5
322.7
345.4
35U.1
3 5 9 . 9P
I N I T I A L JQUARTER.
GROSS
PRIVATE
DOMESTIC
INVESTMENT
IN 1 9 7 7 D O L L A R S
C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E
TERMINAL
QUARTER
INITIAL QUARTER
1-74
2-74
3-74
4-74
1-75
2-75
3-75
4-75
1-76
2-76
OULLARS
A N MilA 1
4-76
1-77
2-77
3-77
4-77
1-78
2-78
3-78
2-74
-14.5
189.«
3-74
- 2 0 . 0 -2 5 . 0
176.6
4-74
-17.7 -19.2 -12.9
170.6
1-75
- 3 1 . 8 - 3 6 . 8 ->41.9 - 6 1 . 3
134.0
2-75
-27.0 -29.8 -31.3 -38.9
-3.8
3-75
-15.4 -15.5 -13.0 -13.0
30.4
76.8
4-75
-14.9 -14.9 -12.8 -12.7
14.4
24.8 -11.9
25.2
36.7
1-76
-7.6
— 6.6
-3.1
-1.0
133.3
15^.7
20.2
148.9
64.0
168.5
2-76
-5.3
-4.1
—0 . 6
1.6
23.2
31.1
18.6
37.7
15.6
3-76
-4.2
-3.0
0.1
2.2
20.1
25.5
15.2
26.0
10.5
5.6
4-76
— 4. 6
-3.6
-0.8
0.8
15.6
19.2
10.1
16.5
3.9
-1.5
-8.1
1-77
-1.9
-0.7
2.1
3.9
17.6
21.0
13.6
19.5
10.4
8.8
10.4
32.7
2-77
-0.0
1.3
4.1
5.9
18.5
21.6
15.3
20.6
13.4
12.*
lfc.3
29.2
25.8
12.2
13.9
22.3
17.5
9.7
-2.7
174.7
177.1
173.4
186.1
197.1
3-77
0.6
1.9
4.5
6.3
17.6
20.2
14.6
18.9
12.7
4-77
0.4
1.6
4.0
5.5
15.6
17.7
12.5
16.0
10.4
9.5
10.3
15.5
10.3
3.3
1-78
1.0
2.2
4.5
5.9
15.2
17.1
12.4
15.4
10.5
9.8
10.5
14.6
10.5
5.9
4.0
11.2
2-78
1.8
2.9
5.1
6.6
15.2
16.9
12.6
15.4
11.0
10.4
11.2
14.7
11.4
8.1
7.6
13.2
15.2
3-78
1.4
2.5
4.5
5.8
13.6
15. 1
11.0
13.4
9.3
8.6
9.0
11.7
8.5
5.4
4.3
6.8
4.6
—5 . 0
-4-78
1.4
2.4
4.3
5.5
12.8
14.0
10.3
12.3
8.5
7.9
8.1
10.3
7.5
4.7
3.7
5.4
3.5
-1.9
1-74
P-74.
1-74
4-74
1— 7S
2-75
3-75
4 - 7 5 .l = O h
7-76
3-7A
4-76
1-77
7— 7 7
3 - 7 7 -_ k = 1 7
l-7ft
INI T I A t
D
3-76
QUARTER
201.7
200.3
205.7
213.1
210.4
1.3
¿ 1 1 . IP
2-7H..
_ _
M C I TttTMADV
P H F P A R P D a*_ F E O F R A L R E S E R V E H A N K iiir_S I .
JA N U A R Y 1 8 ,
16
1979
LUULS
fcQVERNMFNT PURCHASES QF GOODS AMD S E R V IC E S
IN CURftFMT DtJLLA RS
CUHPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
TERMINAL
ttl L L l Q N S iitUOLLAKS
^k|MII4{ U 4 T P Ü
QUARTER
INITIAL
ÙHARTHÌ
1-74
2-74
3-74
4-74
1-75
2-75
3-75
4-75
2-74
15.4
3-74
14.9
14.4
4-74
14.3
13.7
12.9
1-75
13.4
12.7
11.9
10.9
2-75
12.9
12.2
11.5
10.8
3-75
12.4
11.8
11.1
10.5
10.3
9.9
4-75
12.2
11.7
11.1
10.7
10.7
10.6
1-76
11.0
10.4
9.7
9.1
8.7
8.0
7.0
2.9
2-76
10.2
9.5
8.8
8.2
7.6
6.9
5.9
3.3
1-76
2-76
3-76
4-76
1-77
2-77
3-77
4-77
1-78
2-78
3-78
297.8
308.0
317.5
325.8
10.7
334.2
342.2
11.3
351.5
354.Ü
357.2
3.7
3—76
9.5
8.8
8.2
7.5
7.0
6.2
5.3
3.4
3.6
3.6
4-76
9.2
8.6
8.0
7.4
6.9
6.3
5.6
4.2
4.7
5.2
6.7
1-77
9.3
8.7
8.2
7.7
7.3
6.8
6.3
5.3
5.9
6.7
8.3
360.4
366.3
9.8
375. Ü
2-77
9.8
9.3
8.8
8.4
8.2
7.9
7.6
7.0
7.8
8.8
10.6
12.7
15.6
3-77
9.9
9.5
9.1
8.7
8.5
8.3
8.0
7.6
8.4
9.4
10.8
12.3
13.5
11.5
4-77
10.1
9.8
9.4
9.1
9.0
8.8
8.7
8.3
9.1
10.1
11.4
12.6
13.6
12.6
13.7
1-78
9.7
9.4
9.0
8.7
8.5
8.4
8.2
7.9
8.5
9.2
10.2
10.9
11.1
9.7
8.8
388.8
39V.5
412.5
416.7
4.1
2-78
9.6
9.3
8.9
8.7
8.5
8.3
8.2
7.9
8.4
9.0
9.8
10.4
10.5
9.2
8-5
6.0
7.9
3-78
9.9
9.6
9.3
9.1
9.0
8.8
8.7
8.5
9.1
9.7
10.5
11.0
11.2
10.4
10.1
8.9
11.4
15.0
4-78
10.2
9.9
9.6
9.4
9.4
9.3
9.2
9.0
9.6
10.2
11.0
11.5
11.8
11.1
11.1
10.4
12.6
15.1
15.2
_Z=IA__ 3 - 7 4
4-74
1-75
2-75
3 -7 5
4 -7 5
l-7k
2-76
3-76
4— 7A
L — 72., _2.r22
3.-77
4 - 2 7 . .1 - X Ü ... 2 - 7 Ü
A-7H
1-74
INITIAL
424.7
439.8
«»55.6P
QUARTER
tau v c n n Eicraj ir u n u i a a c a _u r laiiuua M U J C K I J L U T O A H I ’
C O M P O U N D E D ,A N N U A L R A T E S O F C H A N G E
UUL LUlj
inns nt
OULLARS
NN11A1 B A T f - C
ill!
TERMINAL
OtlARTFR
INITIAL
1-74
2-74
3-74
4-74
1-75
2-75
3-75
4-75
1-76
2-76
IQ U A R T E R
3-76
4-76
1-77
2-77
3-77
4-77
1-7Ò
2-78
2-74
2.2
3-74
1.8
1.4
4-74
1.1
0.5
-0.3
1-75
1.2
0.9
0.6
1.6
2-75
1.7
1.6
1.6
2.6
3.6
3-75
2.0
1.9
2.1
2.8
3.5
3.4
4-75
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.9
3.3
3.2
2.9
1-76
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.9
1.9
1.4
0.4
-2.1
2-76
1.2
1.1
1.0
1.3
1.2
0.6
-0.3
-1.9
-1.7
3-76
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.3
-0.5
-1.6
-1.4
-l.l
4-76
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.4
-0.1
-0.8
-1.7
-1.5
-1.4
-1.8
1-77
0.9
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.3
-0.3
-0.9
— 0.6
-0.2
0.2
2.3
2-77
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.5
1.5
1.2
0.9
0.6
1.1
1.8
2.8
5.1
8.0
3-77
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.9
1.9
1.7
1.5
1.3
1.9
2.6
3.5
5.3
6.9
5.8
4-77
1.9
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
1.9
1.8
1.6
2.2
2.8
3.6
5.1
6.0
5.0
4.2
1-78
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.1
1.5
1.9
2.4
3.3
3.5
2.1
0.3
-3.5
2-78
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.3
1.1
0.9
1.3
1.6
2.0
2.7
2.8
1.5
0.1
— l.V
-0.3
3-78
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.9
1.9
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.9
2.2
2.7
3.3
3.5
2.6
1.8
1.1
3.4
7.3
4-78
1.9
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.0
1.9
1.8
2.1
2.5
2.9
3.5
3.7
3.0
2.5
2.0
3.9
6.1
1-74
2-74
3-74
4 -7 4
1— 7 5
2-75
3=25
4-7%
1 -7 6
2-76
3 -7 6
4 -7 6
1-77
2 -7 7
V-77
4 -7 7
3-78
257.6
258.5
258.3
259.3
261.6
263.8
265.7
26*. 3
263.2
IMTTf&i
262.5
261.3
262.8
267.9
271.7
274.5
272.1
1
271,9
?-?H
276.7
5.0
2 8 0 .IP
A— * A
OilASTPR
P- PRELIMINARY
P B F P A R F D air E L D E R Ai
JANUARY 1 8 , 1979
17
RfcSfcRWF
rtAfc*
Í1C SI,» .LQU1.S,
--------- --------------- ... -
---------- ----------------------- Q I S P J O & A B L E P E R S O N A L T M r n M F I M C U R R E N T D O L L A R S _________________________ _______ ______________________
C O MPOUNDED ANNUAL R ATES OF CHAN G E
........ ............. .............. ................................... —
TERMINAL
--- — ----------------- ------------------ — --------------------------------------- B I L L I O N S 1IF
INITIAL
1-74
2-74
2-7*
10.3
3-74
10.9
11.4
4-74
>-74
4-74
1-75
2-75
3-75
4-75
QUARTER
1-76
3-76
2-76
1-77
4-76
3-77
2-77
4-77
1- 76
2-78
DOLLARS
-------u ■UAL,
3-78
973.1
999.7
9.5
9.1
1-75
8.0
7.2
6.8
5.2
3.7
2-75
12.1
12.5
12.9
16.1
30.1
1.016.2
1,025.4
1,095.1
3-75
10.3
10.3
10.1
11.2
15.1
1.9
4-75
1C. 2
10.2
10.0
10.8
13.3
5.7
9.6
1-76
10.2
10.2
9.9
10.6
12.4
7.0
9.7
2-76
9.8
9.7
9.4
9.9
11.2
6.9
8.6
8.1
6.4
3-76
9.6
9.5
9.2
9.6
10.6
7.1
8.4
8.0
7.1
7.8
4-76
9.6
9.5
9.3
9.6
10.5
7.6
8.7
8.5
8.1
8.9
10.0
1-77
9.5
9.5
9.3
9.6
10.3
7.8
8.8
8.6
8.3
8.9
9.5
2-77
9.8
9.?
9.6
9.9
10.6
8.3
9.3
9.2
9.1
9.8
10.5
10.7
12.5
3-77
9.8
9.8
9.7
10.0
10.6
8 .6
9.5
9.5
9.4
10.0
10.6
10.8
11.7
10.9
4-77
10.0
10.0
9.9
10.2
10.8
9.0
9.9
9.9
9.9
10.5
11.0
11.3
12.1
11.9
12.9
1-76
10.0
10.0
9.9
10.2
10.7
9.1
9.9
9.9
9.9
10.4
10.8
11.0
11.5
11.2
11.3
9.8
2— 70
10.2
1Ü.2
10.1
10.3
10.9
9.4
10.1
10.1
10.2
10.7
11.1
11.2
11.7
11.5
11.7
11.1
1 , 1 0 J .3
1,125.8
9.8
1,152.5
1,1/0.6
1,192.8
1,221.5
9.0
1,248.0
1,285.3
1,319.1
1,359.6
1,391.6
12 .5
1,433.3
1,460.4
3-78
10.2
10.2
10.1
10.3
10.8
9.4
10.1
10.1
10.2
10.6
11.0
11.1
11.5
11.2
11.3
10.8
11 .3
10.2
4-78
10.3
10.3
10.2
10.4
10.9
9.6
10.3
10.3
10.4
10.8
11.1
11.2
11.6
11.4
11.5
11.2
11 .6
11.2
1-74
2-7.4
3-2.4.. 4 - 7 4 _ J L = 2 5 _ - 2 - 2 5 . _3c-T3l
JL-lh...
3-76
b r lh .
1-77.
.¿-22™
J k = 2 S _ ...lr76_.
3 — 7 7 ..4.-77
12.2
1,511.4P
Ì - 7 8 . 2 - I Ä .. 3 - 7 8
DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN 1972 DOLLARS
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
INITIAL
TERMINAL
OilARTFR
1-74
2-74
-1.7
2-74
3-74
4-74
1-75
2-75
3-75
4-75
1-76
KlLLIflMS U F
DOLLARS
ANNII&I H A T E S
QUARTER
2-76
3-76
4-76
1-77
2-77
-0.9
-0.0
-1.8
-1.9
-3.7
1-75
-2.0
-2.1
-3.1
-2.5
2-75
2.6
3.7
4.9
9.6
3 -7b
874.1
23.1
863.1
1.3
1.9
2.4
4.5
8.2
-4.9
1.7
2.2
2.7
4.4
6.8
-0.5
4.0
1-76
2.1
2.6
3.0
4.4
6.3
1.2
4.4
2-76
2.1
2.5
2.9
4.0
5.4
1.4
3.6
3.4
2.1
3-76
2.1
2.5
2.8
3.8
4*9
1.6
3.3
3.0
2.2
2.4
4-76
2.3
2.7
3.0
3.9
^»8
2.0
3.5
3» 3
2.9
3,3
871.7
881.8
4.7
886.3
891.5
900.9
4.3
904.8
1-77
2.2
2.6
2.9
3.6
4.4
2.0
3.2
3.0
2.6
2.8
3.0
1.7
2-77
2.5
2.9
3.2
3.9
4*6
2.5
3.6
3.6
3.3
3*6
4.1
4*0
3—77
2.8
3.1
3.4
4.1
'W8
2.9
1.9
3.9
3.8
4,1
4.5
4.6
4-77
3.1
3.5
3.7
4.*
!V . O
3.4
4.3
*»4
4.3
4.7
5.2
5»4
br'f
1— 78
3.0
3.3
3.5
4.1
4,7
3.2
4.0
3.9
4.2
4.5
4»5
5 ^
2-78
3.0
3.3
3.5
4.1
4*6
3.2
4.0
3*9
3.9
4.1
4.3
4.3
3.5
4.0
4,5
3.2
3.9
3.9
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.2
4.3
3.1
2-78
829.8
3-75
4-78
1-78
835.1
4-75
3.0
4-77
843.0
3-74
4-74
3-78
3 77
843.1
3.3
3.4
3.6
l r 7 * .... 2 - 7 4
4.1
*>6
3.3
4.0
4 r :74 _ l ä £SL_ 2 - 7 5 . * - 7 5
i.O
3.9
4.1
-1-76 -2-76.
4.3
4.3
.3 ^ 7 6
4-76
6
.-2
91Ö.6
931.9
5.9
4 «.7
V
"if
...4r . T L
6.9
V.JJ
4.9
4« 4
1.1
4.5
K »I
2.3
3.5
2.7
3.5
3.5
3.3
4.1
4. >
4-77
l^ZB
4.5
?— 77.
9*9.6
952.1
960.3
968.7
5.1
9 8 0 . 9P
2 = 1 8 --- 1-1* ----------- ---
________________________________________________________________________________IN IT IA L QUARTFR__________________________ ______________________________________ ____________
____E- PRELIM INARY_______
___________________________________ _____________________________________________________ ________________ _________________________________
_
_
_
_
_________________________________________________________________________
_
_
_
__________________________________________________________________________________________________PHPPiBR-. a»
JANUARY i» *
18
BFSEMVE
1979
HAMK OF ST.
I 11111\
r flR P O R A T F
P R O F IT S
AFTFR
TAXF£
*
COMP O U N D E D ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
TERMINAL
b l L L l Q N S OF
DOLLARS
INITIAL QUARTER
IMMtlAI
U U A R T frk
1-7*
1*.8
12.9
11.2
25.0
30.5
7.3
4.9
*
1—7 *
2 —7 4
U!
1
*-73
*-7*
1-75
2-7*
3-7*
4-74
1-75
2-75
3-75
4-75
1-76
2-76
3-76
2-77
3-77
4-77
1-78
72.8
81.0
73.5
1.9 - 3 2 . 2
-11.1 -16.6 -2*. 3 -*6.8 -58.2
59.1
2-75
-3.8
7.8
6.7
5.8
-3.6
8.4
7*.6 113.6
*-75
8.3
7.*
6.8
-0.7
9.3
50.5
-7 . 2 -11.3 -26.0 -22.8
6*.6
*2.8
54.5
78.1
80.3
11.8
1-76
12.3
12.0
12.2
6.5
16.5
50.6
53.3
29.9
50.9
2-76
12.7
12.5
12.7
7.8
16 . 5
*3.0
*3.0
25.1
32.4
16.2
3-76
11.8
11.5
11.6
7.2
14.5
35.4
34.0
19.2
21.8
9.4
3.1
69.0
92..*
93.1
92.2
**— 7 6
10.*
10.0
9.9
5.V
12.0
28.9
26.8
14.2
14.8
4 .8
-0.4
-3.8
1-77
11. 1
10.8
10.8
7.3
12.9
27.8
25.8
15.1
15.8
8. 4
6.0
7.4
20.0
12. 2
9.1
1*-*
27.9
26.1
17.0
17.9
12.2
11.3
14.1
2*.3
102.8
18.6
17.9
8.0
10*.8
13.2
11.1
3.1
-1.5
6.3
8.5
5.8
-0.9
-5.1
-8.5
14.2
15.9
19.5
19.*
17.2
20.5
33.2
94.0
12.4
12.0
13.2
15.8
15.1
12.6
13.7
19.3
36.3
-*.2
1-7fc
7-7fc
■*-7f%
* — 7A
1 -7 7
7 -7 7
A -7 7
fc-77
1— 7 H
7-7M
12.3
12.1
12.0
11.8
11.9
9.0
13.8
25.8
2* .0
15.6
16.*
11.5
10.6
12.6
4-77
11.1
10.9
10.8
8.1
12.4
23.0
21.2
13.8
14.0
9.5
8.5
9.6
1-76
9.8
9.5
9.*
6.8
10.6
20.0
18.1
11.3
11.3
7.1
5.9
2-78
13.4
13.3
13.*
11.2
15. 2
24.5
23.1
17.1
17.6
14.4
3-78
12.*
12.2
12.3
10.1
13.8
22.2
20.7
15.1
15.4
*-7 A
1-7*
2 -7 4
Î-7 *
* — 7*
1-75
7— 75
W75
*— 75
10*.*
102.1
120.5
q il A R T F R
BASIS
N.A.-Not Available.
P R E P A R E D B Y FEOFRAI
J A N U A R Y 18, 1 9 7 9
ftlr.SERVE H A N K Q F s i . t o m s . -
SOURCES OF DATA
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS DATA
Source:
1929-72:
1973
1974
1975-77
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis, Washington, D.C. 20230
The National Income and Product Accounts of the
United States, 1929-/4, A Survey of Current Business
Supplement.
Survey of Current Business, July 1976.
Survey of Current Business, July 1977.
Survey of Current Business, July 1978.
The Survey is available from most district offices
of the Department of Commerce or from the Superintendent of
Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C.
20402.
119.2
N.A.
IN IT IA I
INCOME
96.5
28.8
2-77
NATIONAL
RA T F
2-78
53.3
3-75
4-78
1-77
7U.9
3-77
♦
4-76
19
I N V E N T O R I E S COMPARED WI T H MONTHLY S A L E S *
MANUF ACT UR I NG
AND
T R A DE
]
72
1
68
64
.
60
.
56
1 60
1 56
52
.
1 48
48
1
44
.
1 40
40
36
1
1965
1966
1967
1968
* R A T I OS
BASED
ON
SHADED
AREAS
REPRESENT
SEASONALLY
LATEST
DATA
PLOTTED:
1969
1970
ADJUSTED
PERIODS
NOVEMBER
OF
1971
1972
1973
DATA.
BUSINESS
1974
1975
SOURCE:
1976
1977
U . S . DEPARTMENT
OF
1978
1979
COMMERCE
RECESSIONS.
PRELIMINARY
P REPARED
20
BY FEDERAL
RESERVE
BANK
OF ST.
LOUIS
@FedFRASER