Full text of National Economic Trends : January 1974
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n m i o n m Economic t r e d d s PREPARED M O NTH E N D IN G : BY December 31, 1973 FEDERAL R ESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS RELEASED: January 23, 1974 Total spending continued to increase rapidly in the fourth quarter, according to preliminary estimates issued by the U.S. Department of Commerce. For the year ending fourth quarter 1973, total spending rose 11.2 percent, which compares with a 10.6 percent advance in the previous year and a trend rate of increase of 7.3 percent from 1961 to 1971. Distribution of the increase in total spending between prices and real product changed substantially from 1972 to 1973. Real product expanded 3.9 percent in the year ending fourth quarter 1973, compared to a 7 percent increase in the previous year and a 4.1 percent average rate of advance from 1961 to 1971. The average level of prices, on the other hand, rose 7.1 percent in the year ending fourth quarter 1973, in contrast to a 3.3 percent rise in the preceding year and a trend rate of increase of 3.1 percent in the previous ten years. The slowing in real product growth in 1973 had little effect on employment trends. Total civilian employ ment increased 3.4 percent from December 1972 to December 1973, the same as in the previous year. Payroll employment rose 3.6 percent in the year ending last December, only slightly less than the 3.8 percent increase in the preced ing year. Unemployment was 4.9 percent of the labor force in December compared with 5.1 percent a year earlier. Rapid expansion in total demand combined with growth in production constrained by capacity and. limited supplies of key materials led to a sharp acceleration in the rate of inflation in 1973. Consumer prices rose 8.8 percent from December 1972 to December 1973, compared with a 3.4 percent increase in the previous 12 months. Whole sale prices of all commodities increased 18 percent in the year ending December, up sharply from the 6.5 percent advance in the previous year. 2 in d u s t r i a l p ro d u ctio n -CQHPQüfiOID AMOIUAL RITES QP CHAftfit ic a n i n m . MONT H ...ittü 1^72 A - 72 7-72 i* 72 9-72 10-72 11-72 12-72 1-71 IiAL JkyjL *.... M C IMIM..... 2-73 3-71 4*71 5-71 6-71 7-71 9-71 9-71 10-73 &v y 11-71 114.4 ..Jtrîl_____ 115.1 T-Il 7 . 1 ... 7i(i 3-12 «*1 10.4 11.1 9-72 10.% 11.7 u.a 14.1 1&-Ï2 11.1 11*1 15.0 .11.A 17.6 11-72 II.A 12.6 13.9 14.1 14.0 i û .s U-T? Uii lia _11.<L 12*9 11.4 10.0 116.3 U 7 . 6 _________ 119.2 UO^ 9.4 - 121.1 1-73 1.1*1 .1 1 . 4 A2.7 12.6 12.2 10.9 10.4 11.9 ¿r_Zl_ L U i 12*0 u.i 12.6 12.2 10.9 11.1 12.0 12.4 1-73 _10*A 11.0 1 U A 1 1 . 2_ lOil 9.1 9.0 9.9 7.6 4-73 9.9 10.3 10 .A KU2. 5-73 9.4 10.1 10.3 10.0 ... 9 * 8 .£ r l L . 122.2 123.4 i ■ 1.0 ft.O 9.7 9.8 7-73 9.6 9*9 ioa ? <5 ^s, 3.0 123.7 124.1 1.4 1.0 7.6 6.4 3.5 4.0 1.1 1.0 7.7 6.9 5.0 6.0 9.0 lil 7.8 7.6 6.8 5.4 6.3 7.5 6*9 li) 9.2 9.1 7.5 6.5 7*3 8.6 9.0 u.o 124.9 125.6 J.l a r 126.7 126.4 9-.Ï1 fi.g 8.9 ¥.0 8.7 8.2 7.3 à.9 6.6 6 .0 4.4 5.3 5.7 4.9 3.9 -2.8 9-73 9.5 8.(» t. 7 1 . 3 ....7 . 8 7.0 .4.6 6.3 5.7 4.8 5.1 5.3 4.6 3.9 0.5 10-71 8.1 8.2 1.1 7.8 6.9 6.2 9.« 5.3 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.1 3.4 1.0 2.9 1.9 3.3 4.4 2.9 2.4 2.9 7.1 11-71 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.5 7»ç 12-73 7 . 0 .. 7 * e 7.0 6* A o.l 6-72 7-72 8-72 9-72 5-72 126.8 3.9 127.0 9.9 5.6 5.0 4*2 4*4 4,5 3.9 kl .. 4 . 9 4.5 1*9 1 1.11 9*1 3*0 2.1 1.6 -0.2 0.5 — 0.6 -1.9 10-72 11-72 12-72 1-73 3-73 4-73 5-73 6-73 7-73 8-71 9-73 10-73 2-73 127.3P S 126.4P 11-73 INITIAL MANT h P- PRILIMINA RY PRêPARIO 8Y PfcDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. JANUAftV 16« 1974 LOUIS 3 INDUSTRIAL RATIO PRODUCTION SCALE 1 9 6 7 -1 0 0 RATIO SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SCALE 1 9 6 7 -1 0 0 PERCENTA6ES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIOOS IN D IC A T E D . LATEST OATA PLOTTED. DECEMBER PR ELIM INA RY PREPAREO BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS 4 TOTAL CIVILIAN JUMnrMW,w .i m ..ggnvsfc. TERMINAL MONTH EMPLOYMENT ,JC- v n w THOUSANDS OF P E R S O N S INITIAL MONTH ?-? 2 6-72 6-72 7 -7 ? 8-11 9-12 10-11 11-72 12-72 1-73 2-73 3-73 4-73 5-73 6-73 7-73 8-73 9-73 10-73 11-73 4.4 7-72 81.752 0.4 ¡M 81.782 8-72 ?iQ 2.3 4*2 9-72 3 .9 ...¿U2__ 3.5 1C-72 2.8 2.4 3*0 11-72 2.6 2.3 2.8 2.3 12-72 2*8 1-73 82.061 2.9 82.256 82.397 2*1 2*C 2.5 3.C 2.7 .Ami. 1.9 1.4 1*1 2-73 2.7 2.5 2.8 2*4 2*6 1.9 82.525 2.8 3.8 0*8 0*2 -3*2 2*9 2*J 8.6 3-73 3*6 3*5 3.9 3.8 4*0 4*4 4-73 3.3 3.2 3*5 3.4 3*5 3*7 5-73 3.2 3.0 3.3 3.2 3*2 3*4 6-73 3.6 3*6 3.9 3.8 3*9 7-73 3.3 3.2 3.5 3.4 3*4_ 8-73 2.9 7.A 3.0 2.9 9-73 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.4 5.0 82.780 82.555 83.127 83*889 5*9 10.1 11.6 4*2 6.8 S.8 0.4 3*7 3.6 5.4 4.4 1*0 1*5 4.2 4*5. 4.6 6*3 5*7 3.8 5.5 9*7 3.8 3.8 9.1 4*3 2.6 3.4 4.3 -0.8 2.9 3.0 3.1_ 3.C 3*4 3.2 1.6 1.9 2.0 -1.7 3.9 3. A 3.8 3.8 4.7 4*2 3.0 3.5 4.0 2.2 3*7 10.3 83.917 84.024 84.674 84*614 84. 4 3 4 85.127 1C-73 3.6 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.G 4.2 4.2 5.1 A.7 3*7 4.3 4*8 3.7 5.2 9.3 8.3 11-73 3.4 3.4 3*6 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 4.6 4*1 3.2 3.6 4*0 2.9 3*9 6. 1 4.0 -0.1 85.688 12-73 3-2 3.1 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.4 4*0 3.6 2.7 3.0 3*2 2.2 2*8 4.1 2.2 -0*8 85.506 5-72 6-72 7-72 8-72 9-72 10-72 11-72 12-72 1-73 2-73 3-73 4-73 5-73 6-73 7-73 8-73 9-73 10-73 INITIAL 11-73 MONTH P A Y K C L L EPPLCYMEfcT C C M P C U N O E D ANNUAL R A T E S CF C H A N G E TERMINAL T O 7 P " --- 85*695 P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S J A N U A R Y 4# 1 9 7 4 THOUSANDS 0? P E R S O N S INITIAL MONTH 5- 7 2 6-72 2*9 7-72 1.3 6-72 7- 7 2 8- 7 2 9 - 7 2 1C - 7 2 1 1 - 7 2 1 2 - 7 2 1- 7 3 2-73 3-73 4-73 5-73 6-73 7-73 Ö-73 9-73 10-73 11-73 72,705 72,694 -C.2 73,016 6-72 2.7 2.6 5* 4 9-72 3*1 3*1 4.8 4*2 1C- 72 3.5 3.7 5.C 4.e 5*3 11-72 3.6 3*6 4 *8 4.6 4*7 4.2 12-72 3.5 3*6 4.4 4.1 4*1 3. 5 2.7 1-73 3*6 3. 7 4.3 4. 1 4. 1 3.7 3.4 4.1 2- 7 3 4. 0 4*2 4*6 4.7 4*€ 4.7 4.9 5.9 73,268 73,584 73,835 74,002 74,252 74,715 7.7 74,914 3-73 4.C 4*1 4*6 4.5 4*5 4.4 4.4 5.C 5.5 3 .2 4-73 3.9 4.C 4*4 4* 3 4*3 4.2 4. 2 4.5 4.7 3.2 3.1 5- 7 3 3.8 3*9 4. 4 4*2 4*2 4*1 4.1 4.3 4*4 3. 3 3. 3 3.5 6-73 3.8 3*9 4.3 4*1 4*1 4.C 4. C 4.2 4.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.3 7-73 3.5 3.5 3.8 3*7 3.6 3.4 3.4 3*4 3*3 2.5 2.3 2.C 1 .3 -0.8 8- 7 3 3*5 3*6 3.9 3*7 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.6 3*5 2. 8 2.7 2.6 2.3 1.8 4*4 75,105 75,321 75,526 75,478 75,747 75,961 9- 7 3 3*5 3*6 3*8 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.5 3. 5 2.9 2. 8 2.8 2. 6 2*3 3.9 3 *4 1 C -73 3* 7 3. 8 4*C 3.9 3.Ç 3.8 3.7 3*e 3*8 3.3 3.3 3.4 3*4 3*4 4*8 5.C 6.5 11-73 3*7 3*8 4.C 4 *C 3*9 3.8 3*8 3*9 3.9 3.5 3*5 3.5 3.5 3.6 4.7 4.8 5.5 4*5 12-72 3.6 3*6 3*e 3*1 3.7 3.6 3*5 3.6 3* 6 3*2 3.2 3 .2 3 *1 3.1 3.9 3.7 3.8 2.5 5-72 6-72 7-72 e- 72 T C - T F 11-72 12-72 1-73 2-73 3-73 4-73 5-73 6-73 7-73 8-73 76,363 76.642P C.5 76,677P 9-73 10-73 li-73 I M T I AL M C N T H P - PffTTTRTrftV’ EP'AftÉÒ BY FÉDÉRAL REStkVfc BANK CF S T . LOUIS JANUARY 14« 1974 5 EMPLOYMENT RATIO SCALE MILLIONS OF RATIO PERSONS SEASONALLY MILLIONS ADJUSTED SOURCE: PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR P E R I O DS LA TES T DATA P L O TT E D: OF SCALE PERSONS U . S . D E P A R T M E N T OF LABOR INDICATED. DECEMBER P R E L I M I N A R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS 6 UNEMPLOYMENT 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 RATES* 1970 1971 SOURCE*. * PERCENT OF C I V I L I A N LABOR FORCE U.S. 1972 1973 DEPARTMENT OF LABOR I N GROUP LATEST DATA PL O T T E D t DECEMBER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS I N V E N T O R I E S COMPARED W I T H MONTHLY S A L E S * M ANUFACTURING AND TRADE * RAT IOS BASED ON SEASONALL Y ADJUSTE D DATA. SOURCE: U .S .DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE SHADED AREAS RE PRESENT PERIODS OF BUSINESS REC ESSIONS AS DEFINED BY THE NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH. LATEST DATA PLOTTED: NOVE MBE R PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LO UIS 8 RETA I L SALES C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S ÜF C H A N G E TERMINAL MONTH MILLIONS ? DOLLARS INITIAL MONTH 5-7 2 6-7 2 -9.8 7-72 3.3 6- 7 2 7-72 d- 72 9-72 1U-72 11-72 12-72 1-7 3 2-73 3-73 4-73 5-73 7-73 6-73 8- 7 3 9- 7 3 10-73 11-73 36,821 18.3 37 , 3 4 ; 37, 9 6 * 8-72 9*2 20*2 22.1 9-72 5.0 10.4 6.7 -6.8 10 - 7 2 13.2 19 . 8 20.3 19.4 11-72 8.6 12.8 11 . 4 8.1 1 2 -72 10.7 14.6 13.9 11.9 3 7 , 74É 52.9 39,106 16.4 - 1 1 . 4 38,713 18 . 9 4.9 39,417 24. 1 40,701 1-73 14 . 7 18.8 18.8 18.2 25.4 17.4 35.2 47.2 2-73 15. 0 18.5 18. 6 18.0 23.7 17.3 28.8 31.2 17.0 18 . 5 20.3 41,242 41,97« 3-73 15.8 19. 1 19.2 18.8 23.7 27.5 28.6 4-73 11.9 14.4 14.0 13.0 16.1 10.9 16.0 14.1 4.8 5- 7 3 12.4 14.6 14.3 13.4 16.3 11.8 16 . 2 14.7 7.8 4.9 -3.4 U.3 6-73 10.0 11. d 11.3 10 . 2 12.3 8.1 11 . 2 9. 1 2.8 -0.5 -7.4 -0.1 -14.9 7-73 12.9 14 . 8 14.6 13,9 16.2 12W 16,2 15.1 8-73 11. 1 12.8 12.4 11.6 13.4 10.1 12.8 11.4 9-73 10.7 12.2 11 . 8 11.0 12 . 7 9.6 10.6 4 1 , 18f -0.8 -20.5 41,735 4 1 , 17S nl+ 1.5% 42 , 77i 9.2 5.8 16.4 16.0 7.1 5.5 2.2 8.8 6.2 18.5 - 1 1 . 0 6.8 5.4 2*6 8.0 5.8 13.7 -3.5 4.7 4,5 9.<i 7 .8 14 . 4 2 .8 10.4 10.4 42,52*. 16.5 12. 3 11.2 11.9 9. 2 11 . 2 10 . 1 6,9 5. 8 3.9 7.8 6.3 11.2 1.8 6.5 7.4 9.9 7.3 8.9 7.7 4.7 3.6 r i.n 4.7 3.0 6.3 -1.8 0.7 -0.6 10-72 11-72 12-72 1-73 2-73 4-73 5-73 6-73 7-73 8-73 9-73 12.5 12.1 11-73 10. 3 11 *6 11.2 12-73 a.8 10.0 9.5 8.8 5-72 6-72 7-72 8-72 9-72 6*7 42,36: 10 . 1 11.0 7.8 58.0 13. Q 10-73 11.4 23.7 3-73 4 3 ,07( -1.0 4 3 »03! -8.2 -14.8 1 42,46 10-73 11-73 INITIAL M O N T H P- P R E L I M I N A R Y P R E P A R E D 8Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E J A N U A R Y II, 1 9 7 4 COMPOUNDEC TERMINAL MONTH '•'V 5-7 2 6-72 7-72 6-72 -C.9 7-72 4.9 11.1 8-72 7.4 11.8 1 2. 5 8 -72 9-72 10-72 11-72 B A N K O F ST. L O U I S PERSONAL INCOME A N N U A L R A T E S OP C H A N G E BILLICNS O F OCLLARS ANNUAL RATES INITIAL M ONTH 12-72 1-73 2-7 3 3-73 4-73 5-73 6-73 7-73 8-73 9-73 10-73 11-73 927.0 935.2 944.4 9-72 7.8 10.9 1 0. 8 9.1 10-72 10 . 5 13.5 14.3 15 . 2 21.7 11-72 \V.Q 13.6 14. 2 14. 8 17.8 12-72* 10.Ä 12 .6 12.9 13.0 1-73 ' v i o . i ; 2-73 10.1 11.8 11.9 11.7 11.6 11.7 11.5 12. C 3-73 9.9 11. 1 11*1 10.9 11.2 9.2 8.1 4-73 9. 9 11.0 li.O 10.9 11.1 9.4 8.6 5-73 9.8 10.8 10.8 10.6 10.8 9.3 6.6 6-73 9. 8 ÌÒ.7 10.7 10.5 1C. 7 9.4 8.7 7-73 9.9 10.8 10.7 10. 6 10.7 9.6 9.C 9.2 8-73 10. 2 lt .O 1 1*0 10.9 11.1 10.C 9.6 9.9 9-73 10.4 11. 2 11 . 2 11.1 11.3 1C.4 1C.C 1 0.3 951.3 967.0 14. C 977.6 14. 3 1C.8 7.6 983.6 12. 4 9.5 7.3 6.9 9.7 8.4 8.7 969.1 10.5 997.4 8.3 8.9 7.3 1,003 .3 8.e 9.4 8.9 10.4 8.8 9.2 8.8 9.6 8.8 8 .9 9 .3 9.0 9.6 9.2 9.7 9.6 9.4 10.0 9.8 1 C.4 11.0 10.3 10.3 10.9 11.C 11.7 12.7 14.4 10.7 10.7 11.3 11.5 12. 2 1 3. 0 14.C 1,011.6 1,018.7 1,0 2 6 .6 1,035 .6 1 »047*3 1 3.6 1 ,058.5 1,068.5 10-73 10.5 1 1. 2 11 .2 11.2 11. 3 1 0.5 1C.2 1 0. 4 1C . 8 1C.9 11.4 1 1.6 12.1 12.8 13.3 12.8 11.9 l’ l-7 3 10.6 U.3 11,4 11.3 11.4 10.7 1C. 4 10.7 11.1 11.1 11. 6 11.8 12. 3 12.8 13.2 12.8 12.4 13.C 12-73 10 . 7 11.4 11.4 1 1. 3 11.5 10.8 1 0.5 10.8 11 .1 11.2 11.6 11.8 12 .2 12.6 13.C 12.6 12.3 12.4 5-72 6-72 7-72 8-72 9-72 10-72 U-72 12-72 1-7 3 2-73 3-73 4-73 5-73 6-73 7-73 8-73 9-73 INITIAL 1,079.4 11.9 1 »089.6P 10-73 11-73 MONTH P- P R E L I M I N A R Y P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E J A N U A R Y 17. 19 7 4 B A N K CF ST. LCUIS 9 RETAIL SALES R A T I O SCALE R A T I O SCALE B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS 1966 1967 SEASONALLY 1968 1969 B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS ADJUSTED 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 MINtCC« U.S. BCFAtTIICIIT OF CMtfCttt PERCENTASCS ARE ANNUAL RATE» ftp C M A M C FON Pt« I M S INDICA T U . LATEST BATA PL0TTE6« NOVEMBER PRELIMINARY, DECEMBER AOVANCC ESTIMATE PREPARSO «Y FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS PERSONAL R A T I O SCALE MONTHLY T R I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS TOTALS INCOME AT ANNUAL SEASONALLY ADJUSTED R A T I O SCALE RATES T R I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS 1.2 1.1 1. 1.0 0.9 0.8 0. 0.7 0. 0.6 0. 0.5 0 .4 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 SOURCEt U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANOE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTEDi DECEMBER PRELIMINARY PREPAREO SY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 1 0 G R O S S N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S _____C O M P C U N P E P A N N U A L R A T E S O F C H A N G E .TERMINAL INITIAL B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS QUARTER QUARTER _kz6? 2-69 2-69 J > 6 9 H i 1-.TQ 2 - TO 1-70 4-70 1-71 2-71 3-71 4-71 1-72 ¿-72 3-72 4-72 ANNUAL RATES 1-73 ¿-73 3-73 7,5 923*5 3-69 941.7 1-69 2-69 ¿-69 4— 6 9 1-70 2-7C 3-70 4-7C 1-71 2-71 INITIAL p- 3-71 4-71 1-72 2-72 3-72 4-72 1-73 2-73 3-73 QUARTER preliminary P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E J A N U A R Y 17» 19 7 4 B A N K O F ST. L O U I S G R O S S N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T IN C O N S T A N T 1 9 5 8 D O L L A R S C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E ___________ INITIAL TERMINAL B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS QUARTER ANNUAL QUARTER 1- 6 9 2-69 3-69 4-69 1-70 2-70 3-70 4-70 1-71 2-71 3-71 4-71 1-72 2-72 3-72 4-72 1-73 2-73 RATES 3-73 725.8 729.2 1 -6 9 2-69 3-69 4-69 1-70 2-70 4.7 5.5 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.5 5.5 4.9 4.7 3-70 4-70 1-71 2-71 3-71 4-71 1-72 2-72 3-72 IN IT IA L P- 8 4 4 . IP 4-72 1-73 2-73 3-73 QUARTER PRELIM INARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS JANUARY 17* 1974 11 DEMAND RATIO SCALE TRILLIONS QUARTERLY OF DOLLARS AND PRODUCTION T O T A L S AT A N N U A L RATIO RATES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED TRILLIONS SCALE OF D O L L A R S 1 1.5 1. 1.4 1.3 1 . 2 1.1 1 . 0 0 .9 0.8 0 . 0 .7 0 . 0.6 0 .5 1966 ILCNP 1967 1968 1969 1970 IN CURRENT DOLLARS. 1971 1972 1973 1974 SOURCEi U .S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE HCNP IN 1 0 5 8 DOLLARS. PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS IN D IC A TE D . LATEST DATA PLOTTEDi 4TH QUARTER PR ELIM INARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS 1 2 C O M P E N S A T I O N PER MAN-HOUR, T OTAL PRI V A T E ECONOMY TERMINAL QUARTER INITIAL 4-68 1-69 2-69 3-69 4-69 1-70 3-7 C 2-70 4-70 1967 - QUARTER 1-71 2-71 3-71 4-71 1-72 2-72 3-72 4-72 1-73 100 2-73 112.5 2-69 7.0 8.1 3-69 7.0 7.6 7.2 4-69 7.8 8.4 8.5 9.9 1-70 6.6 6.8 6.3 5.9 2.0 2-70 6.8 7.0 6.7 6.6 4.9 7.9 7.1 7.3 7.1 7.1 6.2 8.3 8.8 4-70 6.8 6.9 6.7 6.7 5.9 7.2 6.8 4.9 1-71 6.9 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.2 7.3 7.1 6.3 7.8 2-71 7.0 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.4 7.3 7.2 6.7 7.6 1 5.9 0 1-69 114.7 116.7 119.5 120.1 122.4 125.0 126.5 128.9 131.2 7.3 133.6 3-71 7.0 7.1 7.0 7.0 6.6 7.4 7.3 6.9 7.6 7.4 7.5 4-71 6.8 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.3 7.0 6.8 6.4 6.8 6.5 6.0 4.6 1-72 7.3 7.4 7.3 7.4 7.1 7.7 7.7 7.5 8.1 8.1 8.4 8.9 13.4 2-72 7.2 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.0 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.7 7.7 7.8 7.9 9.5 5.9 3-72 7.0 7.1 7.0 7.0 6.8 7.3 7.2 7.0 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.1 8.0 5.4 4.9 4-72 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 6.8 7.3 7.2 7.0 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.8 6.1 6.2 7.5 8.4 « 135.1 139.4 141.4 143.1 1-73 7.2 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.0 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.5 7.5 7*5 7.5 8.1 6.9 7.2 2-73 7.2 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.0 7.4 7.4 7.2 7.5 7.4 7.5 7.4 7.9 6,9 7.1 3-73 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.1 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 3.0 7.2 7.5 8.1 4-68 1-69 2-69 3-69 4-69 1-70 2-70 3-70 4-70 , 1-71 2-71 3-71 4-71 1-72 2-72 3-72 INITIAL 145.7 9.4 8.1 .. 4-72 149,0 6.9 15U5 7.8 8.7 1-73 2-73 154*7 QUARTER QfCfUlf« 3» I9t3 OUTPUT PER MAN-HOUR* TOTAL PRIVATE ECONOMY _______C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S O F C H A N G E 5.4 JLiJ---- Li5___LlS__ l± l__ ¿Lé__ ±LÌ__ 4*1__ 3l-5_ i - n . 196? » IOQ INITIAL QUARTER I lf VllNAL QUARTER -------- jJLa t— __ 1 ÏT . 107,2 ,+3.8% ..... • » . « ___ 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.5 3.0 4.1 4.1 1.7 4.7 3.4 4.0 ......... 1*71.. 2 .0 2.2 2.5 2.8 J.2 4.3 4.3 3.9 4.8 3.8 4.4 .........¿-71... 2.4 2.6 2*9 3.2 3.6 4.5 4.6 4.3 5.1 4.4 4.9 5.9 6.7 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.5 4.4 4.4 4.1 4.8 4.1 4.5 4.9 4.8 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.6 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.9 4 .3 4.7 5.0 5.0 4.1 4-71 3-72 4-72 . _ 109,3 110.7 5.2 112.5 113,3 114,8 115.9 1-73 2,7 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.7 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.8 4.3 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.0 4.6 3.9 2-73 2.5 _ 2.7 2.9 3.1 . 3.4 4.0 4.0 3.8 4.2 3. 7 3.9 3.9 3.7 2.9 3.0 1.7 -0.3 3-73 2.4 _ 2.6 2.3 3.0 3.2 3.8 3.6 3.9 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.2 2.6 2.5 1.5 0.3 1.0 4-68 1-69 2-69 3-69 4-69 2-70 3-70 4-70 1-71 2-71 4-71 1-72 2-72 3-72 4-72 1-73 2-73 t m 1-70 3- 115,8 1 116.1 INITIAL Q U A RTER PREPARED BY CECFMBER 3 . FEDERAL RESERVE 1973 BANK OF ST* LOUIS 13 PRODUCTIVITY, RATIO COMPENSATI ON, AND LABOR COSTS SCALE RATIO 1967-100 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE? PER C E N TA G ES ARE ANNUAL LATEST PLO TTED « DATA R ATES 3RD OF CHANGE FOR PE R IO D S SCALE 1967-100 U .S . D EPA R TM EN T OF LABOR ST. L O U IS IN D IC A T E D . QUARTER PR EP A R E D BY FE D E R A L R ES ER V E BANK OF UNIT LA B G R COSTS* TCTAL PRIVATE E C C KGMY ___C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S OP C H A N G E QUARTER 4-68 1-69 2-69 -3— 69 4-69 1-70 2-70 3-711 * 4 - 7 0 1-71 2-71 3-71 4-71 1-72 2-72 3-72 4-72 1-73 2-73 6.5 108.6 2-69 7.6 110,9 3-69 7 . 6 ^ 8.1 7Y4 4-69 8.3 8.9 9.0 10.7 1- 7 0 8.2 a. 7 8.6 9.2 1- 6 9 8.7 2-70 7. 4 7.6 7.jl 112.9 115,8 118.0 7. 8 7.3 5.6 r \ 3.4 119.0 119.6 3-70 6.6 6.6 6.2 5.9 4.4 2.7 2*9 4-70 6.5 6.5 6.1 5.8 4.7 3.6 *f7 5. 5 1-71 3. 6 5. 5 5.1 4,7 3.5 2.5 2tl 2.2 -1.0 2-71 5.5 5.4 5.0 4.7 3.7 2. 9 2.8 3.0 1.8 4.7 3-71 5.3 5.1 4.7 4. 4 3.6 2.9 2.7 2.9 2.1 3.7 2.6 4-71 5.0 4.8 4.4 4.1 3.3 2.7 M 2,7 2.0 3*0 2.1 1.6 1-72 5.2 5.1 4. 7 3.8 3.3 3.5 3,1 3.9 4.6 7.7 2-72 4.7 4*6 4,3 4.0 3.3 2.8 2*8 2.9 2.5 3.2 2 *8 2,8 3.4 -0.6 3-72 4.5 4.4 4.1 3.8 3.2 2.8 2*7 2.8 2. 4 3.0 2.6 2.6 2. 9 0.6 1.9 4-72 4.4 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.1 1 2.7 I 2.6 2.7 2.3 2.8 2. 5 2,5 2. 7 1. 1 1.9 4.4 4.3 4.0 3,8 2-73 4.6 4.5 4.2 4.0 3-73 4* 7 4.6 4.4 4.2 4-68 1-69 2-69 3-69 122,3 123,1 123,6 125,9 125,7 126.3 126.9 1.9 s+6.7% 2.9 2.9 2.6 3.1 2.9 2.9 3. 2 2.1 3.0 3.5 5.1 3.2 3|2 3.3 3.1 3.6 3.5 3.6 3, 9 3.2 4.1 4. 9 6.4 3.8 3.5 3,5 3.7 3.5 4.0 3. 9 4.0 4.4 3. 8 4.7 5.5 1 6. 7 7.4 4-69 1-70 2-70 3-70 * I -j o 1-7 3 121,2 120,9 1-71 2-71 3-71 4-71 1 -7 2 2-72 3-72 4-72 1-73 3. 3 128.5 130.9 7. 7 \ 7.2 | 133.2 2-73 INITIAL QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE CEC EMBER .3j _„1973 BANK OF ST. LOUIS 14 C O N S U M E R P R ICE INDEX, S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E D C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E TERMINAL MONTH ----------- &=!&,. 7 - 7 2 ____ _____ INITIAL -72 1 0 - 7 2 1 1 - 7 2 1 2 - 7 2 1-73 2-73 MpNTH 1 9 6 7 » 1 00 3 - 7 3 — I t z U — fcJLî— itili. ..1t7.1 .finii.2 - 7 3 I Q - J 3 U - 7 3 ...... . ............ Azl.2 ------U 5 __________________ _______________________ _______________________________________ ;___________________________________________________________________ 1 2 4 .83 7-72 3. 1 4 8-72 3.2 4.1 •10-7? 3.8 4,3 .4.2 4. 6 4.1 11-72 _J,7 4.2 Ac.0 4.3 3 .8 12-72 . 3.5 - ' . 6 ___;_____________________________________________________________ ;_________________________________________________________ ____ 125.32 3.3________________________ __ ____________;____________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 2 5 . 6 6 126.19 '_*»___ .3,9.. 3_. 7 . 3.0..._ i . 4 126.61 3.6 - 126.98 1 . C - _^.5 _ 121-2* ■73 3 . 9 ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 4.2 ____ 4.1 4.3 4 . 0 ____4 . C 4.3 6.1 __ _____ 1 2 7 . 8 7 -73 4.4 4.7 4. 7 5.0 4.9 5.2 5.7 7.3 ______________________ 8 .6 128.75 129.88 130.70 131.47 13 2.21 132.51 135.06 I3 5 * * 9 ______________________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________ ________ ______ 1 3 6 .61 1 1-73 6 «8 7.* U i 7 .L 7.8 8.0 8.4 9. 0 9.3 9.4 9.1 9.3 9.7 10.2 12.2 6.0 10.1 9.8 12-73 6 .H 1,1 7.3 7.5 7. 7 8.0 8.3 8.8 9.0 9.1 8.9 9.0 9.2 9.6 11.1 7.7 9.0 8.3 5-72 6-77 7-72 Ö - 72 9-72 10-72 11-72 12-72 1-73 2-73 3-73 4-73 5-73 6-73 7-73 8-73 INITIAL 137.68 6.7 9-73 10-73 11-73 M0NTH P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L J A N U A R Y 22, 19 74 RESERVE B A N K OF ST. L O U I S WHOLESALE PRICES - INDUSTRIAL COMMODITIES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED __________________ C O M P O U ND E D A N N U A L .P A I E St. Q P .¿ H A Nfif__________________________________________________________ ^ --MCNTH 5-72 6-72 6-72 7-7 2 8-72 9-72 10-72 l*-72 12-72 1-73 2-73 3-73 4-73 5-73 6-73 7-73 8-73 9-73 10-73 11-73 117*88 4. 5 7-72 3# 6 2.7 118.14 118.54 8-72 3.6 3. 4 4.1 9-72 3.7 3.4 3.8 3.4 10-72 3. 1 2.7 2. 7 2.C C.6 11-72 3. 3 3. 1 2.2 2 .9 2.7 12-72 3.1 2.9 3.C 2.7 2.4 3.4 1.9 1-73 3.2 3.C 3.1 2.9 2.7 3.4 2.7 3,6 2-73 4.2 4.1 4.3 5. 5 5.8 7.8 118.87 4.3 4.5 118.93 119.40 4.8 119.59 U9.94 121.09 12.1 122.53 3-73 5.2 5.3 5.6 5.8 6. 3 7.4 8.1 10.2 1 3. 7 15.2 4-73 6.2 6.4 6.8 7.2 7.7 9« 0 9.8 11.9 14.8 16.1 17.0 5-73 7.0 7.2 7.7 8.1 e.7 9.9 10.7 12.6 14.9 15.9 16.2 1 4. 9 124.14 X » 125.64 \ xtl5.9% 6-73 7.4 7.6 8.1 8.5 9.1 10.2 11 . 0 12.5 14.4 15.0 13.9 12.4 7-73 6. 9 7.1 7.4 7.8 8.2 9.1 9.6 10.8 12« C 1 2 . C -JLJLii.. 9 . 3 6.4 0.7 e-73 6.7 6.9 7.2 7.5 7.9 8. 6 9.1 10. 0 11.0 10.8 8.2 5.9 2.7 4.8 9 .9 126.87 126.94 127.44 9-73 6. 8 7.C 7.2 7.6 7.9 fi.6 9. 0 9.8 1C.6 10.4 9.6 8.2 6.4 4.5 <.5 8« 2 10-73 7.3 7. 5 7.6 8.0 0.4 9.1 9.5 10.3 11.c 10.9 10.3 9.2 8.0 6.9 9.1 1 1.3 13.7 17.2 21.6 28.9 45.1 J J L sl* .1 0 . 8 . „ 2 5 . 1 ..3 1 . 3 40.6 1 1- 7 2 9,1 9. 4 9.8 10.2 10.7 11.5 12. 1 13.1 n a 14. 3 14.1 13.8 1 3. 5 12-73 10. 4 1C,7 1 1. 2 1 1. 7 12 . 2 13.1 13.8 14.8 15,9 16.3 16.4 16.3 16.5 5-72 6-72 7- 7 2 a-72 9-72 10-72 11-72 12-72 1-7 3 2-73 3-73 4-73 5-73 6-73 7-73 8-73 128.28 129.74 14.5 9-73 133.83 36.2 137.32 10-73 11-73 INITIAL MONTH PREPARED BY FE0£*AL RESERVE JANUARY 8, 1974 BANK OF ST. LOUIS 15 RATIO PRICES S CAL E 1967 = 100 RATIO SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1966 1967 1968 PERCENTAGES ARE A N N U A L LATEST PLOTTEDi DATA RATES 1969 OF C H A N C E 1970 FOR P E R I O D S 1971 SCALE 1 96 7 -1 0 0 1972 1973 1974 IN D IC ATED. DECEMBER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS 16 WHOLESALE PÄZCES - ALL C C M M O O I T I E S , SEASONALLY ADJUSTED -_C£_JGüANÍLE_________ ___ _ T E R MINAL -IÜIXláLlü¿Lllti____ ____ _____________ MCNTH _S = 1 2 — _ZrX2_ Ù z jL L — 2 z J 2 — — SbJ 1 ^ 1 tz lÀ 196l_« 100 l z l 2 t __ 2júL3__ 3^ J U L - A = 7.1__lr-U-_ A r J L 3 _ - J - I.3-.....ftr..73 ... 9 - 1 3 1 0 - 1 3 1 1 - 7 3 . -j6jl2___ JL.A_ 1 1 9 • ¿6_ - J u l ____ JLmJL. 5-72 7-72 6-72 8-72 9-72 10-72 11-72 12-72 ¿-73 2-F3 3-73 4-73 5-73 6-73 7-73 8-73 9-73 10-73 11-73 INITIAL MONTH P R E P A R E O BY F E O E R A L R E S E R V E BAN K O F ST. L O U I S J A N U A R Y B. 1 9 7 4 ANO F E E D S * W H O L E S A L E P R I C E S ^ F A R M P R O D U C T S A N O 1P R O C E S S E D F O O D S 1 C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S OF 1 CHANGE S E A S . ADJ. 19 6 7 * 100 I N I T I A L IM C N T H TERMINAL MCNTH 5-72 6“ir2 7-7 2 a-7 2 9- 72 1 0 - 7 2 1 1 “72 12- 72 1- 73 2-73 3-73 4- 73 5- 73 6-73 7-73 9 - 7 3 10- 73 11 -73 120.1 6-72 6,,2 7-72 14,,3 23. fi-7 2 15 ,2 2CiiC U ,9 9-7 2 i?,ifi IS, 17,■3 17,.a 10-7 2 11.•fi n .c <5,.fl fc.5 122.2 1 2 3.8 125.5 1 I- 72 H i ,1 Mi■ 6 1 ?.,5 11.,1 -1,■a p v r N 7,.9 2 1 . 0 1 2- 7 ? 20, 73, 23, 75,.1 ? 7,.7 4 7. 0 125.1 1 2 7.1 133.4 7fl,.7 136.9 1-7 3 22 <.6 25 .2 25, 27,.3 29 .8 4 3.4 2-73 24.,7 77,,7 2?,ifl 2 9 1,7 32.,2 43 . 2 51.,5 39.,4 47 • 5 36.4 141.0 148.1 3-73 29.,4 32.,2 13.,4 36,.C 39,,3 49.9 58,.2 51,,9 60 .3 ao.3 4- 7 *» 2É,,5 /fi.,7 a 31,.C 25. ■ 33,.f 40.3 44,.6 37., 1 37 .3 34. A fl. A 5-73 2 <3,,1 Hi 32.,3 34., 1 3f,a 43. 3 47.,4 41,•fl 43,.7 43.4 27.9 62 .3 6-7 3 12,,4 34.,9 16..G Ifl..1 4Í1.,5 47.4 51..6 47.,5 49 ■fl 5 1.7 43.2 70 .6 V + 2 9 . 4 % 148-2 154.3 16 2 . 0 79,.4 7-7 3 24 .,7 ?fc.,7 ?ti 27.,4 7fl.,4 32. á 34,,2 ?fl,.fl 77 .*5 24 . 7 1 3 . fl Ifl• 4 fl-7 3 4 1. 44 . K 46.,1 49..f; *»2.,3 SQ. 4 64.,4 67.,7 .fl 71 .2 69.5 9? .9 104,• 4 11 8 . 2 7 3 4 . 5 <5-7 3 33.,1 35.,1 3É.iC 37<if 39.,4 44.1 4ft.,7 43.,«s 44,.4 4 4 .7 3 9 .5 4fl .fl 45 .6 3 5 .9 109.6 IQ- 71 77. 1 1-73 24. 15-73 24 . 5 2 5- 5-72 fl fl-73 154.6 1 .2 - 4 2 . « V 184.5 -47..3 17 4.9 169^2 79.,1 29i,7 30i,7 31,ifl 3 5. 3 36..6 33..0 32.16 31 .5 2 5 .7 30 • 3 24 .8 1 3 .9 4 3 .5 -40, ■5 - ■32..S 26iifl 76i.2 9 261■ 27.,5 3C .3 31.,2 27.,5 76,.7 2 5 .C 19.4 72 • 3 16,.7 7 .1 2 5 .4 - 3 3 .4 -'25..0 - 1 6 . 4 A 25.,7 26. 30..1 26,.7 25,■fl 2 4 .3 IQ. 2 21 .fl 16 fl.fl 2 3 - « - 7 3 .1 -•12 .a 6-72 7-72 8-7 2 1 0 -72 1 1 - 7 2 12-72 1-73 2-73 3-7 3 4- 73 5-73 •a 2k . .9 I 2 t . 4 l 9-72 INITIAL .9 6-73 7-73 8- 73 - 0.7 166.7 17.9 1 169*0. 9- 73 10- 73 11 - 7 3 MONTH P R E P A R E D BY F E O E R A L R E S E R V E BA N K OF ST. L O U I S J A N U A R Y 8 « 1 97 4 17 RAÍ O SCALE 196 165 I SO -1 00 WHOLESALE PRICES RATI O SC/ ¡9 6 7 - SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 100 165 160 ; 55 155 150 150 145 145 140 140 135 135 130 130 125 200 120 195 190 185 180 175 1 15 1 10 170 105 165 100 160 155 95 150 90 145 140 85 135 135 130 130 125 125 120 120 1 15 115 1 10 110 105 105 100 100 95 95 90 90 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 972 1973 1974 PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS I NOI CATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED« DECEMBER PREPARED BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LO UI S 18 GENERAL RATIO PRICE INDEX* S CALE RATIO 1958-100 1966 *A S USED SCALE 1958-100 1967 IN N A TIO N A L 1968 1969 1970 1971 INCOME ACCOUNTS PE R C E N TA O ES ARE ANNUAL RATES SO UR C Et OF CN AN 6E FOR P E R IO D S 1972 U .S . 1973 D EPA R TM EN T 1974 OF COMMERCE IN D IC A T E D . PR E P A R E D B Y FE D E R A L RESERVE BANK OF S T . L O U IS I M P L I C I T P R 1 C F D E F L A T O R PCS G R O S S N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T ____________________________________________________ _____________C C M P C U N D E O A N N U A L R A T E S O F C H A N G E ____________________________________________________________ T E R M I N A L * __________________________________________________________________ INI T I A L Q U A R T E R ____________________________________________________________ 1 9 5 8 « 100 QUARTER ----------- 1.-AS. I ' M 1-7Q 2-70 3-70 W O 1-71 2-71 3-71 W 1 1 - 7 2 ’2-72 3-72 4-72 1-73 2-73 3 - 7 3 ________________ 1-69 2^09 3-69 - 4-69 . Digitized P- for P R EFRASER LIMINARY ~~ *l-to 2-70 5 3-70 4-70 ' 1-7 1 2-71 INITIAL 3-71 4-71 1-72 2-72 3-72 4-72 1-73 2-73 3-73 QUARTER ' PRFPAREO BY FEOERAL RESERVE JANUARY 17, 1974 BANK OF ST. LOUIS
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