Full text of National Economic Trends : February 2012
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NationalEconomicTrends February 2012 This publication contains charts and tables compiled by the Data Desk staff of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The data are related to the state of the U.S. economy: output, inflation, labor markets, interest rates, government budgets, international trade, and more. Effective January 2012, all cover pages for the International Economic Trends, Monetary Trends, and National Economic Trends publications have been discontinued. Cover pages are now part of our Economic Synopses series. Contents Page 3 4 7 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 29 Economy at a Glance Output and Growth Interest Rates Inflation and Prices Labor Markets Consumer Spending Investment Spending Government Revenues, Spending, and Debt International Trade Productivity and Profits FOMC Economic Projections Quick Reference Tables Notes and Sources Conventions used in this publication: 1. Shaded areas indicate recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. 2. Percent change refers to simple percent changes. Percent change from year ago refers to the percent change from the same month or quarter during the previous year. Compounded annual rate of change shows what the growth rate would be over an entire year if the same simple percent change continued for four quarters or twelve months. The compounded annual rate of change of x between the previous quarter t –1 and the current quarter t is: [(xt /x t – 1 )4 –1] × 100. For monthly data replace 4 with 12. 3. All data with significant seasonal patterns are adjusted accordingly, unless labeled NSA. We welcome your comments addressed to: Editor, National Economic Trends Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis P.O. Box 442 St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or to: stlsFRED@stls.frb.org National Economic Trends is published by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Visit the Research Division’s website at research.stlouisfed.org/publications/net to download the current version of this publication or register for e-mail notification updates. For more information on data in this publication, please visit research.stlouisfed.org/fred2 or call (314) 444-8573. updated through 02/01/12 National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth Consumer Price Index Compounded annual rates of change Percent change 9 1.2 0.8 6 0.4 0 3 0.0 0 -0.4 -0.8 -3 -1.2 -6 -1.6 -9 -2.0 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 17532 2008 17898 Industrial Production Interest Rates Percent change Percent 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 5 2 10-Year Treasury 1 4 0 3 -1 -2 2 -3 1 3-Month Treasury -4 -5 0 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 2012 19359 Unemployment Rate Thousands Percent of labor force 600 11.2 400 10.2 200 9.2 0 8.2 -200 7.2 -400 6.2 -600 5.2 -800 -1000 4.2 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 3 updated through 02/01/12 National Economic Trends Real Gross Domestic Product Percent change from year ago 10 5 0 -5 -10 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Industrial Production and Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Indexes Percent change from year ago Index 18 74 Industrial Production (left scale) 12 66 6 58 0 50 ISM (right scale) -6 42 34 -12 -18 26 87 8 7 88 8 8 89 8 9 90 9 0 91 9 1 92 9 2 93 9 3 94 9 4 95 9 5 96 9 6 97 9 7 98 9 8 99 9 9 00 0 0 01 0 1 02 0 2 03 0 3 04 0 4 05 0 5 06 0 6 07 0 7 08 0 8 09 0 9 11 10 1 0 1 1 12 1 2 1 3 Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Percent change from year ago 12 8 4 0 -4 -8 -12 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Real Change in Private Inventories Percent of GDP 2 1 0 -1 -2 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Research Division 4 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 02/01/12 National Economic Trends Real Final Sales and GDP Real GDP Revisions Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 8 5 6 Final Sales GDP (bar) 4 4 2 Advance Second Third Annual Revision 3 0 2 -2 -4 1 -6 -8 0 17898 2009 2010 18263 2011 18628 Industrial Production and ISM Index Percent change 2011:1 2011:2 2011:3 2011:4 Nominal Gross Domestic Product Index 68 3 Compounded annual rates of change 8 6 ISM (right scale) 2 2010:4 18993 62 4 2 56 1 0 -2 0 -1 50 -6 Industrial Production (bar) (left scale) 18263 2010 18628 -4 44 2011 18993 2012 -8 17898 19359 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Average Weekly Private Nonfarm Hours Percent change Hours 18993 34.00 1.00 0.75 0.50 33.75 0.25 0.00 33.50 -0.25 -0.50 33.25 -0.75 -1.00 33.00 -1.25 -1.50 32.75 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 Real Change in Private Inventories 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 Inventory-Sales Ratio Billions of 2005 dollars Manufacturing and trade 150 1.50 100 1.46 1.42 50 1.38 0 1.34 -50 1.30 -100 1.26 -150 1.22 -200 1.18 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 5 updated through 01/27/12 National Economic Trends Contribution of Components to Real GDP Growth Percentage points at compounded annual rates 9 6 3 0 -3 -6 -9 10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 Consumption Imports 11Q1 11Q2 Exports Inventories 11Q3 11Q4 Government Investment Contributions to Real GDP Growth Rate 2010 2011 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final Sales 0.83 3.00 1.65 4.14 0.04 1.61 3.16 0.81 Consumption 1.92 2.05 1.85 2.48 1.47 0.49 1.24 1.45 Fixed Investment 0.15 2.12 0.28 0.88 0.15 1.07 1.52 0.41 0.56 1.62 1.04 0.82 0.20 0.98 1.49 0.18 -0.41 0.50 -0.76 0.06 -0.06 0.09 0.03 0.23 Nonresidential Residential Government -0.26 0.77 0.20 -0.58 -1.23 -0.18 -0.02 -0.93 0.23 0.71 0.26 -0.26 -0.82 0.16 0.17 -0.62 -0.49 0.05 -0.06 -0.33 -0.41 -0.34 -0.19 -0.32 Net Exports -0.97 -1.94 -0.68 1.37 -0.34 0.24 0.43 -0.11 Exports Imports 0.86 1.19 1.21 0.98 1.01 0.48 0.64 0.64 -1.83 -3.13 -1.89 0.39 -1.35 -0.24 -0.21 -0.75 Change in Inventory 3.10 0.79 0.86 -1.79 0.32 -0.28 -1.35 1.94 Residual 0.00 -0.16 -0.02 -0.23 -0.10 -0.07 -0.20 0.09 Real GDP Growth 3.93 3.79 2.51 2.35 0.36 1.33 1.81 2.75 Federal State and Local Research Division 6 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 02/01/12 National Economic Trends Interest Rates Percent 18 15 12 9 10-Year Treasury 6 3-Month Treasury 3 0 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 Treasury Yield Curve Percent 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 Jan 2012 1.5 1.0 Jan 2011 Week Ending: 01/27/2012 0.5 0.0 3m 1y . 2y 5y 7y 10y Standard and Poor's 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends Percent change from year ago 75 50 25 0 -25 -50 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 7 updated through 01/31/12 National Economic Trends NIPA Chain Price Indexes Percent change from year ago 6 4 GDP 2 Gross Domestic Purchases 0 -2 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Consumer Price Index Percent change from year ago 8 6 4 Excl. Food and Energy 2 All Items 0 -2 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Producer Price Index, Finished Goods Percent change from year ago 12 8 Excl. Food and Energy 4 0 PPI -4 -8 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Employment Cost Index and Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago 12 9 Comp. per Hour 6 3 ECI 0 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Research Division 8 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 02/01/12 National Economic Trends NIPA Chain Price Indexes Oil & Natural Gas Prices: Spot & Futures Compounded annual rates of change Dollars per barrel 6 4 30 125 25 100 GDP (bar) 2 Dollars per million btu 150 20 Spot Oil (left scale) 75 50 Gross Domestic Purchases -2 25 0 -4 2009 17898 15 Oil Futures (left scale) 0 2010 18263 2011 18628 18993 10 5 Spot Gas (right scale) Gas Futures (right scale) 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Note: Futures prices as of 1/31/2012. Consumer Price Index Consumption Chain Price Index Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 9 12 9 6 CPI (bar) 6 Excl. Food & Energy PCE (bar) 3 3 0 0 Excl. Food & Energy -3 -6 -3 2009 17898 2010 18263 2011 18628 18993 17898 2009 18263 2010 Producer Price Index, Finished Goods Unit Labor Cost Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 30 12 PPI (bar) 20 18628 2011 18993 Nonfarm 6 10 0 0 Excl. Food & Energy -10 -6 Manufacturing (bar) -20 -12 2009 17898 2010 18263 2011 18628 18993 17898 2009 18263 2010 Employment Cost Index Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago Compounded annual rates of change 18628 2011 18993 9 4 Wages and Salaries 6 3 3 2 || ||| Compensation Benefits 1 0 -3 0 -6 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 9 updated through 01/06/12 National Economic Trends Employment Percent change from year ago 8 6 4 Payroll Survey 2 Household Survey 0 -2 -4 -6 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 Unemployment, Labor Force Participation, and Employment Rates Percent of labor force Percent of population 15 70 Labor Force/Population (right scale) 67 12 Employment/Population (right scale) 9 64 6 61 Unemployment Rate (left scale) 3 58 0 55 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 Duration of Unemployment Percent of labor force Weeks 6.00 28 5.25 25 4.50 22 3.75 19 3.00 2.25 1.50 16 Unemployed < 5 Weeks (left scale) 13 Unemployed > 15 Weeks (left scale) 10 Median (right scale) 0.75 7 0.00 4 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 Research Division 10 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 01/10/12 National Economic Trends Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Change in Manufacturing Payrolls Thousands Thousands 600 100 400 50 200 0 0 -50 -200 -100 -400 -150 -600 -200 -800 -250 -1000 -300 2009 17898 2010 18263 2011 18628 18993 Change in Household Employment 2009 17898 2010 18263 2011 18628 18993 Labor Force and Population Thousands Percent change from year ago 900 2.4 90% Confidence 600 300 0 1.8 Pop. 1.2 0.6 -300 Labor Force 0.0 -600 -0.6 -900 -1200 -1.2 2009 17898 2010 18263 2011 18628 18993 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 Available Labor Supply and Components Unemployment Rate & Job Openings Rate Percent of labor force Percent 16 12 9 14 11 8 10 7 90% Confidence 12 Percent Unemployment Rate (left scale) 9 10 8 8 7 6 Available Labor Supply Unemployed 4 Want to Work 2 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 Job Openings Rate (right scale) 6 5 4 6 3 5 2 4 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 1 2006 16802 2007 17167 2008 17532 2009 17898 2010 18263 2011 18628 2012 18993 19359 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 11 updated through 01/27/12 National Economic Trends Real Disposable Personal Income Percent change from year ago, quarterly data 12 8 4 0 -4 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Real Consumption Percent change from year ago, quarterly data Percent change from year ago, quarterly data 24 12 Durables (left scale) 16 8 8 4 Total (right scale) 0 0 -8 -4 -16 -8 86 8 6 87 8 7 88 8 8 89 8 9 90 9 0 91 9 1 92 9 2 93 9 3 94 9 4 95 9 5 96 9 6 97 9 7 98 9 8 99 9 9 00 0 0 01 0 1 02 0 2 03 0 3 04 0 4 05 0 5 06 0 6 07 0 7 08 0 8 09 0 9 11 10 1 0 1 1 1 2 Retail and Food Services Sales Percent change from year ago, quarterly average 16 12 8 4 0 -4 -8 -12 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 *Data from Jan. 1992 to the present are on a NAICS basis; data prior to Jan. 1992 are on an SIC basis and are not strictly comparable (see End Note). Debt Service Payments and Household Debt Outstanding Percent change from year ago, quarterly data Percent of disposable personal income 15 18 15 14 Debt Service Payments (right scale) 12 13 9 12 6 11 Household Debt Outstanding (left scale) 3 10 0 9 -3 8 86 8 6 87 8 7 88 8 8 89 8 9 90 9 0 91 9 1 92 9 2 93 9 3 94 9 4 95 9 5 96 9 6 97 9 7 98 9 8 99 9 9 00 0 0 01 0 1 02 0 2 03 0 3 04 0 4 05 0 5 06 0 6 07 0 7 08 0 8 09 0 9 11 10 1 0 1 1 1 2 Research Division 12 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 01/30/12 National Economic Trends Real Disposable Personal Income Personal Saving Rate Percent change Percent 2.0 10 1.5 8 1.0 0.5 6 0.0 4 -0.5 -1.0 2 -1.5 -2.0 0 2009-01-01 2009 2010 2010-01-01 2011-01-01 2011 2012-01-01 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 Real Consumption Real Consumption Compounded annual rates of change Percent change 4.5 1.2 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 0.9 3.0 0.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -1.5 -0.6 -3.0 -0.9 -4.5 -1.2 2009-01-01 2009 2010 2010-01-01 2011-01-01 2011 2012-01-01 2009-01-01 2009 2010 2010-01-01 2011-01-01 2011 2012-01-01 Retail & Food Services Real Durables Consumption & Vehicle Sales Percent change Percent change 10 3 Millions of vehicles, annual rate 27 Durables (bar) (left scale) Total (bar) 2 5 21 0 15 1 0 Ex. Autos -1 -5 -3 9 Autos and Light Trucks (right scale) -2 -10 2009 17898 2010 18263 2011 18628 18993 Consumer Sentiment (U. of Michigan) 17898 3 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 Real Durables Consumption Index Compounded annual rates of change 110 30.0 100 22.5 90 15.0 80 7.5 70 0.0 60 50 -7.5 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 2009-01-01 2009 2010-01-01 2010 2011-01-01 2011 2012-01-01 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 13 updated through 01/27/12 National Economic Trends Investment Percent of nominal GDP 24 22 Total 20 18 16 Private 14 12 10 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Private Fixed Investment Percent change from year ago 30 24 18 Nominal 12 6 Real 0 -6 -12 -18 -24 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Real Nonresidential Fixed and Equipment & Software Investment Percent change from year ago 30 Equipment & Software 24 18 12 6 Nonresidential 0 -6 -12 -18 -24 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Real Residential Fixed Investment Percent change from year ago 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Research Division 14 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 01/27/12 National Economic Trends Gross Saving Rates and Balance on Current Account (NIPA) Percent of GDP 25 20 Gross Private Saving 15 10 Gross Govt. Saving 5 0 BOCA -5 -10 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 Real Private Fixed Investment Nondefense Capital Goods Orders Compounded annual rates of change Percent change from year ago, excluding aircraft 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20 -30 -30 -40 11 10 10 11 12 Orders Equipment & Software Investment -40 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 Real Equipment & Software Investment Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 30 20 20 10 10 2011 18993 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20 -30 -30 -40 -40 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 Real Residential Fixed Investment Housing Starts and New Home Sales Compounded annual rates of change Millions, annual rate 30 0.9 20 Millions, annual rate 0.45 New Home Sales (right scale) 0.8 18993 0.40 10 0 0.7 0.35 -10 0.6 0.30 -20 0.5 -30 -40 0.25 Housing Starts (left scale) 0.4 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 17898 0.20 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 15 updated through 01/27/12 National Economic Trends Govt. Consumption and Investment Govt. Current Receipts and Expenditures Billions of 2005 dollars Percent of GDP 2700 39 2400 Total Expenditures 2100 33 Total 1800 1500 Total Receipts 27 State & Local 1200 Fed. Expenditures 900 21 Federal 600 Fed. Receipts 300 15 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Government Budgets Billions of dollars National Income Accounts Unified Budget Calendar Years Fiscal Years State and Local Receipts Expenditures Federal Federal Surplus or Deficit (-) Receipts Expenditures Surplus or Deficit (-) Receipts Outlays Surplus or Deficit (-) 1996 1045.1 1022.1 23.0 1526.4 1674.7 -148.3 1453.1 1560.5 -107.4 1997 1099.5 1063.2 36.3 1656.2 1716.3 -60.1 1579.2 1601.1 -21.9 1998 1164.5 1117.6 46.9 1777.9 1744.3 33.6 1721.7 1652.5 69.3 1999 1240.4 1198.6 41.8 1895.0 1796.2 98.8 1827.5 1701.8 125.6 2000 1322.6 1281.3 41.3 2057.1 1871.9 185.2 2025.2 1789.0 236.2 2001 1374.0 1389.9 -15.9 2020.3 1979.8 40.5 1991.1 1862.8 128.2 2002 1412.7 1466.8 -54.1 1859.3 2112.1 -252.8 1853.1 2010.9 -157.8 2003 1496.3 1535.1 -38.8 1885.1 2261.5 -376.4 1782.3 2159.9 -377.6 2004 1601.0 1609.3 -8.3 2013.9 2393.4 -379.5 1880.1 2292.8 -412.7 2005 1730.4 1704.5 25.9 2290.1 2573.1 -283.0 2153.6 2472.0 -318.3 2006 1829.7 1778.6 51.1 2524.5 2728.3 -203.8 2406.9 2655.1 -248.2 2007 1923.1 1910.8 12.3 2654.7 2900.0 -245.3 2568.0 2728.7 -160.7 2008 1944.8 2017.0 -72.2 2502.2 3115.7 -613.5 2524.0 2982.5 -458.6 2009 1953.6 2031.7 -78.1 2232.5 3450.4 -1218 2105.0 3517.7 -1413 2010 2064.7 2090.0 -25.3 2429.6 3703.3 -1274 2162.7 3456.2 -1293 2011 . 2148.7 . . 3753.6 . 2302.5 3601.1 -1299 2010Q1 2034.0 2066.2 -32.2 2364.8 3636.6 -1272 466.1 795.0 -328.9 2010Q2 2043.3 2071.6 -28.3 2407.8 3685.8 -1278 643.1 930.1 -287.0 2010Q3 2082.1 2087.4 -5.3 2475.4 3733.1 -1258 564.7 854.9 -290.2 2010Q4 2099.3 2134.8 -35.5 2470.5 3757.8 -1287 531.8 900.8 -369.0 2011Q1 2092.5 2149.7 -57.2 2527.9 3729.0 -1201 488.1 948.6 -460.5 2011Q2 2128.0 2168.2 -40.2 2554.1 3829.5 -1275 714.1 855.2 -141.1 2011Q3 2062.1 2145.3 -83.2 2571.8 3744.2 -1172 568.5 894.7 -326.3 2011Q4 . 2131.5 . . 3711.8 . 555.4 877.2 -321.7 Research Division 16 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 01/27/12 National Economic Trends Federal Debt Federal Surplus (+) / Deficit (-) Percent of GDP Percent of GDP 100 4 90 2 0 80 Total 70 -2 60 NIPA -4 Unified Budget -6 50 40 -8 Held by Public 30 -10 20 -12 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 NIPA: Net government saving. Change in Federal Debt Federal Surplus (+) / Deficit (-), Unified Basis Percent of GDP Billions of dollars, fiscal years 16 1000 12 500 8 0 Total Total 4 Excl. interest payments -500 0 -1000 Held by Public -1500 -4 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Federal Government Debt Billions of dollars, end of month or fiscal year Excludes Agency-issued debt Total Public Debt Held by Agencies and Trusts Held by Public Federal Total Reserve Banks Held by Private Investors Foreign and Total International 2009 11909.8 4355.3 7554.5 769.2 6782.7 3570.6 2010 13561.6 4534.0 9027.6 811.7 8211.1 4324.2 2011 14790.3 4658.3 10132 1664.7 8462.4 NA 2008 2009 2010 2011 March 9437.6 4103.6 5334.0 591.2 4742.9 2506.3 June 9492.0 4207.0 5285.0 478.8 4806.2 2587.4 September 10024.7 4210.5 5814.2 476.6 5332.0 2802.4 December 10699.8 4327.2 6372.7 475.9 5893.4 3077.2 March 11126.9 4290.6 6836.3 492.3 6341.7 3265.7 June 11545.3 4368.8 7176.5 656.5 6518.5 3460.8 September 11909.8 4355.3 7554.5 769.2 6782.7 3570.6 December 12311.4 4497.0 7814.4 776.6 7034.4 3685.1 March 12773.1 4478.9 8294.3 776.7 7513.3 3877.9 June 13201.8 4562.6 8639.2 777.0 7856.7 4070.0 September 13561.6 4534.0 9027.6 811.7 8211.1 4324.2 December 14025.2 4629.8 9395.4 1021.5 8368.9 4435.6 March 14270.1 4613.6 9656.6 1340.5 8311.1 4476.1 June 14343.1 4596.2 9746.9 1619.5 8122.7 4500.8 September 14790.3 4658.3 10132 1664.7 8462.4 NA Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 17 updated through 02/01/12 National Economic Trends Current Account, Trade and Investment Income Balances Billions of dollars, quarterly rate Percent of GDP 8 60 40 6 Investment Income(left scale) 20 4 0 2 -20 0 -40 -2 Current Account (right scale) -60 -80 -4 -6 -100 -8 Goods and Services (left scale) -120 -140 -10 -12 -160 -14 -180 -16 -200 -18 -220 -20 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 Exchange Rates 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 Yen/US$ 100 x (Ecu or Euro/US$) Index, March 1973 = 100 160 375 140 300 120 225 Major Currency Index (left scale) Yen (right scale) 100 150 Euro Ecu (right scale) (right scale) 80 75 60 0 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 Goods Export Shares, 2010 UK 3.76% 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 Goods Import Shares, 2010 Mexico 11.88% Mexico 12.69% China 18.86% UK 2.57% China 7.13% All Other 30.19% Japan 6.23% Japan 4.69% Germany 3.74% Germany 4.26% All Other 27.67% France 2.09% Other OECD 16.39% Canada 14.35% Canada 19.33% France 1.98% Other OECD 12.19% Research Division 18 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 01/17/12 National Economic Trends Trade Balance Goods Trade Billions of dollars Percent change from year ago 0 40 30 Goods and Services -12 20 -24 10 -36 0 -10 -48 Exports -20 Goods -60 -30 Imports -40 -72 17898 2009 2010 18263 18628 2011 18993 17898 2009 Current Account Balance Services Trade Billions of dollars Percent change from year ago 0 30 -30 20 -60 10 -90 0 2010 18263 18628 2011 18993 Exports Imports -120 -10 -150 -20 17898 2009 2010 18263 18628 2011 18993 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 Real GDP Growth of Major Trading Partners Compounded annual rates of change United Kingdom Germany 8 12 4 6 0 0 -4 -6 -8 -12 -18 -12 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 09 2009 10 Canada 2010 11 2011 12 11 2011 12 11 2011 12 France 9 6 3 0 -3 -6 -9 9 6 3 0 -3 -6 -9 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 09 2009 10 Japan 2010 Mexico 16 8 0 -8 -16 -24 -32 16 8 0 -8 -16 -24 -32 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 09 2009 10 2010 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 19 updated through 01/18/12 National Economic Trends Output per Hour and Capacity Utilization, Manufacturing Percent change from year ago Percent 90 18 Utilization Rate (level) (right scale) 12 80 6 70 Output/Hour (left scale) 0 60 -6 50 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 *Data from 1987 to the present are on a NAICS basis; data prior to 1987 are on an SIC basis and are not strictly comparable (see End Note). 11 12 Nonfarm Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago 15 10 Nominal 5 Real 0 -5 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 Output per Hour, Nonfarm Business and Nonfinancial Corporations Percent change from year ago 12 8 Nonfinancial Corporations 4 Nonfarm Business Sector 0 -4 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 Research Division 20 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 01/27/12 National Economic Trends Nonfarm Output per Hour Manufacturing Output per Hour Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 10 15 8 12 6 9 4 6 2 3 0 0 -2 -3 -6 -4 2009 17898 2010 18263 2011 18628 18993 2009 17898 2010 18263 2011 18628 18993 Selected Component Shares of National Income Percent Percent 15 75 13 73 Corporate Profits (left scale) 11 71 9 69 Proprietors' Income (left scale) 7 67 5 65 Compensation (right scale) 3 63 61 1 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 Corporate Profits Percent of GDP 14 12 Profits (Before Tax) 10 8 6 Profits (After Tax) 4 2 0 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 21 updated through 01/27/12 National Economic Trends January 2012 FOMC Projections Change in Real GDP (Q4/Q4) Percent 6 Actual 3 0 -3 -6 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Long Run 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Long Run 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Long Run 2014 Long Run Unemployment Rate (Q4) Percent 11 9 7 Actual 5 3 2006 2007 2008 Change in PCE Price Index (Q4/Q4) Percent 4 3 Actual 2 1 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 Change in PCE Price Index Excluding Food and Energy Prices (Q4/Q4) Percent 4 3 Actual 2 1 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Research Division 22 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 01/27/12 National Economic Trends FOMC Quarterly Projections for 2012 and 2013: A Timeline Change in Real GDP for 2012 Change in Real GDP for 2013 Percent Percent 6.0 6.0 4.5 4.5 Nov. 2010 3.0 3.0 Jan. 2012 Nov. 2009 Jan. 2012 1.5 1.5 2009 2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 Unemployment Rate for 2012 (Q4) Unemployment Rate for 2013 (Q4) Percent Percent 10 2012 10 Jan. 2012 8 Jan. 2012 8 6 6 Nov. 2009 Nov. 2010 4 4 2009 2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012 Change in PCE Price Index for 2012 Change in PCE Price Index for 2013 Percent Percent 4 4 3 3 2 Jan. 2012 1 2 Jan. 2012 1 Nov. 2009 Nov. 2010 0 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012 Change in PCE Core Price Index for 2012 Change in PCE Core Price Index for 2013 Percent Percent 3 2 3 Nov. 2009 2 Jan. 2012 Jan. 2012 1 1 0 0 Nov. 2010 2009 2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 23 updated through 01/27/12 National Economic Trends Nominal GDP Billions of $ 2008. 14291.5 Real GDP Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2005 $ . 1.9 13161.939 Final Sales Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2005 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago Change in Private Inventories Billions of 2005 $ Last qtr Year/Year ago . -0.3 13200.544 . 0.2 . -36.266 2009. 13939.0 . -2.5 12703.117 . -3.5 12852.658 . -2.6 . -144.938 2010. 14526.5 . 4.2 13087.981 . 3.0 13028.945 . 1.4 . 58.781 2011. 15087.7 . 3.9 13313.425 . 1.7 13281.844 . 1.9 . 35.572 20.270 2008 1 14273.9 0.6 3.7 13266.834 -1.8 1.6 13277.785 -1.1 1.8 -12.497 . 2 14415.5 4.0 3.1 13310.467 1.3 1.0 13325.894 1.5 1.5 -14.172 5.510 . 3 14395.1 -0.6 1.9 13186.925 -3.7 -0.6 13225.601 -3.0 -0.0 -38.131 -13.046 . 4 14081.7 -8.4 -1.2 12883.531 -8.9 -3.3 12972.897 -7.4 -2.6 -80.265 -36.266 2009 1 13893.7 -5.2 -2.7 12663.229 -6.7 -4.5 12836.021 -4.2 -3.3 -161.578 -73.537 . 2 13854.1 -1.1 -3.9 12641.271 -0.7 -5.0 12830.000 -0.2 -3.7 -182.985 -115.740 . 3 13920.5 1.9 -3.3 12694.517 1.7 -3.7 12875.093 1.4 -2.7 -178.738 -150.892 . 4 14087.4 4.9 0.0 12813.452 3.8 -0.5 12869.517 -0.2 -0.8 -56.451 -144.938 2010 1 14277.9 5.5 2.8 12937.744 3.9 2.2 12895.944 0.8 0.5 39.931 -94.561 2 14467.8 5.4 4.4 13058.482 3.8 3.3 12992.183 3.0 1.3 64.623 -32.659 . 3 14605.5 3.9 4.9 13139.590 2.5 3.5 13046.008 1.7 1.3 92.256 35.090 . 4 14755.0 4.2 4.7 13181.645 4.2 2.4 38.316 58.782 2011 1 14867.8 3.1 4.1 13227.871 0.4 2.2 13182.820 0.0 2.2 49.144 61.085 . 2 15012.8 4.0 3.8 13271.835 1.3 1.6 13236.235 1.6 1.9 39.122 54.710 . 3 15176.1 4.4 3.9 13331.559 1.8 1.5 13340.941 3.2 2.3 -1.998 31.146 . 4 15294.3 3.2 3.7 13422.436 2.8 1.6 13367.382 0.8 1.4 56.020 35.572 . Consumption Billions of 2005 $ 13216.107 2.3 3.1 Durables Consumption Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2005 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago Private Fixed Investment Billions of 2005 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago Nonresidential Fixed Investment Billions of 2005 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago 2008. 9211.714 . -0.6 1171.809 . -4.9 1978.597 . -7.1 1537.637 . -0.8 2009. 9037.474 . -1.9 1108.302 . -5.4 1606.345 . -18.8 1263.190 . -17.8 2010. 9220.896 . 2.0 1188.302 . 7.2 1648.351 . 2.6 1319.202 . 4.4 2011. 9421.075 . 2.2 1284.501 . 8.1 1757.761 . 6.6 1432.401 . 8.6 2008 1 9289.074 -1.0 0.9 1218.707 -9.6 0.7 2066.360 -8.3 -2.9 1589.083 -0.8 6.0 . 2 9285.780 -0.1 0.4 1209.775 -2.9 -1.4 2039.097 -5.2 -5.0 1579.991 -2.3 2.8 . 3 9195.964 -3.8 -1.0 1170.776 -12.3 -5.8 1973.542 -12.3 -7.7 1539.159 -9.9 -2.1 . 4 9076.039 -5.1 -2.5 1087.977 -25.4 -13.0 1835.389 -25.2 -13.1 1442.314 -22.9 -9.4 2009 1 9040.884 -1.5 -2.7 1094.568 2.4 -10.2 1665.464 -32.2 -19.4 1312.933 -31.3 -17.4 . 2 8998.541 -1.9 -3.1 1083.358 -4.0 -10.4 1589.836 -17.0 -22.0 1257.602 -15.8 -20.4 . 3 9050.293 2.3 -1.6 1134.512 20.3 -3.1 1592.615 0.7 -19.3 1247.031 -3.3 -19.0 . 4 9060.177 0.4 -0.2 1120.769 -4.8 3.0 1577.463 -3.8 -14.1 1235.195 -3.7 -14.4 2010 1 9121.193 2.7 0.9 1147.466 9.9 4.8 1582.007 1.2 -5.0 1253.323 6.0 -4.5 . 2 9186.916 2.9 2.1 1169.260 7.8 7.9 1654.040 19.5 4.0 1307.992 18.6 4.0 . 3 9247.087 2.6 2.2 1194.057 8.8 5.2 1663.488 2.3 4.5 1343.614 11.3 7.7 . 4 9328.389 3.6 3.0 1242.425 17.2 10.9 1693.869 7.5 7.4 1371.879 8.7 11.1 2011 1 9376.739 2.1 2.8 1277.358 11.7 11.3 1698.971 1.2 7.4 1378.885 2.1 10.0 . 2 9392.744 0.7 2.2 1260.171 -5.3 7.8 1736.677 9.2 5.0 1413.196 10.3 8.0 . 3 9433.500 1.7 2.0 1277.779 5.7 7.0 1790.430 13.0 7.6 1465.645 15.7 9.1 . 4 9481.316 2.0 1.6 1322.698 14.8 6.5 1804.967 3.3 6.6 1471.877 1.7 7.3 Research Division 24 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 01/31/12 National Economic Trends GDP Chain Price Index Index Employment Cost Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago ECI: Wages Index ECI: Benefits Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago 2008. 108.565 . 2.2 108.2 . 2.9 108.6 . 3.0 107.2 . 2.5 2009. 109.732 . 1.1 109.8 . 1.4 110.3 . 1.6 108.5 . 1.2 2010. 111.000 . 1.2 111.9 . 1.9 112.1 . 1.6 111.3 . 2.6 2011. 113.307 . 2.1 114.3 . 2.2 114.0 . 1.7 115.1 . 3.5 2008 1 107.623 2.5 2.1 107.2 2.7 3.2 107.6 3.4 3.2 106.4 1.9 3.2 . 2 108.282 2.5 2.0 108.0 3.0 3.1 108.4 3.0 3.1 106.9 1.9 2.6 . 3 109.107 3.1 2.5 108.6 2.2 2.8 109.0 2.2 2.9 107.5 2.3 2.4 . 4 109.247 0.5 2.1 109.1 1.9 2.4 109.5 1.8 2.6 107.9 1.5 1.9 2009 1 109.709 1.7 1.9 109.3 0.7 2.0 109.8 1.1 2.0 108.0 0.4 1.5 . 2 109.589 -0.4 1.2 109.5 0.7 1.4 110.1 1.1 1.6 108.3 1.1 1.3 . 3 109.662 0.3 0.5 109.9 1.5 1.2 110.5 1.5 1.4 108.6 1.1 1.0 . 4 109.969 1.1 0.7 110.4 1.8 1.2 110.9 1.5 1.3 109.0 1.5 1.0 2010 1 110.370 1.5 0.6 111.1 2.6 1.6 111.4 1.8 1.5 110.3 4.9 2.1 2 110.770 1.5 1.1 111.6 1.8 1.9 111.9 1.8 1.6 110.9 2.2 2.4 . 3 111.162 1.4 1.4 112.1 1.8 2.0 112.3 1.4 1.6 111.6 2.5 2.8 . 4 111.699 1.9 1.6 112.7 2.2 2.1 112.8 1.8 1.7 112.2 2.2 2.9 2011 1 112.390 2.5 1.8 113.3 2.1 2.0 113.2 1.4 1.6 113.5 4.7 2.9 2 113.091 2.5 2.1 114.2 3.2 2.3 113.8 2.1 1.7 115.3 6.5 4.0 . . . 3 113.811 2.6 2.4 114.6 1.4 2.2 114.2 1.4 1.7 115.4 0.3 3.4 . 4 113.935 0.4 2.0 115.1 1.8 2.1 114.7 1.8 1.7 116.2 2.8 3.6 Exports Billions of 2005 $ Nonfarm Output per Hour Imports Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2005 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index Nonfarm Compensation per Hour Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago 2008. 1649.274 . 6.1 2144.034 . -2.7 103.112 . 0.6 111.613 . 2009. 1494.020 . -9.4 1852.823 . -13.6 105.502 . 2.3 113.448 . 1.6 2010. 1663.216 . 11.3 2084.990 . 12.5 109.846 . 4.1 115.784 . 2.1 2011. 1776.339 . 6.8 2188.668 . 5.0 . . . . . . 2008 1 1643.924 5.5 9.8 2194.139 1.4 -0.3 103.012 -2.4 1.9 111.286 6.1 4.1 . 2 1693.878 12.7 11.3 2180.094 -2.5 -1.4 103.562 2.2 1.6 110.900 -1.4 3.4 . 3 1678.712 -3.5 6.4 2143.325 -6.6 -3.3 103.374 -0.7 0.3 111.861 3.5 3.6 . 4 1580.583 -21.4 -2.5 2058.579 -14.9 -5.9 102.491 -3.4 -1.1 112.450 2.1 2.5 2009 1 1451.105 -29.0 -11.7 1855.266 -34.0 -15.4 102.835 1.3 -0.2 111.676 -2.7 0.4 . 2 1449.366 -0.5 -14.4 1781.167 -15.0 -18.3 104.831 8.0 1.2 113.509 6.7 2.4 . 3 1497.266 13.9 -10.8 1849.651 16.3 -13.7 106.499 6.5 3.0 114.162 2.3 2.1 . 4 1578.344 23.5 -0.1 1925.207 17.4 -6.5 107.941 5.5 5.3 114.502 1.2 1.8 3.4 2010 1 1606.189 7.2 10.7 1982.954 12.5 6.9 109.174 4.6 6.2 114.914 1.4 2.9 . 2 1645.013 10.0 13.5 2082.438 21.6 16.9 109.492 1.2 4.4 115.642 2.6 1.9 . 3 1684.844 10.0 12.5 2143.545 12.3 15.9 110.051 2.1 3.3 116.181 1.9 1.8 . 4 1716.819 7.8 8.8 2131.023 -2.3 10.7 110.658 2.2 2.5 116.341 0.6 1.6 2011 1 1749.573 7.9 8.9 2173.924 8.3 9.6 110.492 -0.6 1.2 117.933 5.6 2.6 . 2 1764.961 3.6 7.3 2181.352 1.4 4.7 110.463 -0.1 0.9 117.870 -0.2 1.9 . 3 1785.176 4.7 6.0 2187.928 1.2 2.1 111.096 2.3 0.9 117.809 -0.2 1.4 . 4 1805.647 4.7 5.2 2211.469 4.4 3.8 . . . . . . Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 25 updated through 01/06/12 National Economic Trends Household Survey Employment Thousands Change Percent change Annual Year rate ago Nonfarm Payroll Employment Nonfarm Aggregate Hours Percent change Annual Year rate ago Percent change Monthly Annual Year rate rate ago Thousands Change Index 2007 . 146050 1633 . 1.1 137587 1496 . 1.1 107.3 . . 1.4 2008 . 145370 -680 . -0.5 136778 -809 . -0.6 105.9 . . -1.2 2009 . 139888 -5483 . -3.8 130789 -5989 . -4.4 98.7 . . -6.8 2010 . 139070 -818 . -0.6 129822 -967 . -0.7 98.8 . . 0.1 2011 . 139873 804 . 0.6 131153 1331 . 1.0 100.9 . . 2.2 -6.1 2009 1 141534 -2532 -6.8 -3.2 132814 -2249 -6.5 -3.7 100.8 -2.6 -10.0 . 2 140317 -1217 -3.4 -3.8 130956 -1857 -5.5 -4.7 98.6 -2.2 -8.7 -7.8 . 3 139375 -942 -2.7 -4.1 129960 -996 -3.0 -4.9 97.8 -0.8 -3.1 -7.6 . 4 138325 -1049 -3.0 -4.0 129425 -535 -1.6 -4.2 97.5 -0.3 -1.2 -5.8 2010 1 138667 342 1.0 -2.0 129322 -103 -0.3 -2.6 97.9 0.4 1.5 -2.9 . 2 139261 594 1.7 -0.8 129956 635 2.0 -0.8 98.6 0.8 3.2 0.1 . 3 139274 13 0.0 -0.1 129883 -73 -0.2 -0.1 99.1 0.5 1.9 1.3 . 4 139076 -197 -0.6 0.5 130128 245 0.8 0.5 99.5 0.4 1.6 2.1 2011 1 139548 472 1.4 0.6 130549 422 1.3 0.9 100.0 0.5 2.2 2.2 . 2 139607 59 0.2 0.2 131016 467 1.4 0.8 100.8 0.7 3.0 2.2 . 3 139770 163 0.5 0.4 131313 297 0.9 1.1 101.0 0.3 1.1 2.0 . 4 140567 797 2.3 1.1 131733 420 1.3 1.2 101.8 0.8 3.2 2.3 Dec 137968 -639 -5.4 -3.7 129320 -130 -1.2 -3.8 97.6 -0.1 -1.2 -4.8 2009 2010 Jan 138500 532 4.7 -2.6 129281 -39 -0.4 -3.2 97.9 0.3 3.8 -3.7 . Feb 138665 165 1.4 -2.1 129246 -35 -0.3 -2.7 97.6 -0.3 -3.6 -3.5 . Mar 138836 171 1.5 -1.4 129438 192 1.8 -2.0 98.1 0.5 6.3 -1.6 . Apr 139306 470 4.1 -1.0 129715 277 2.6 -1.3 98.6 0.5 6.3 -0.4 . May 139340 34 0.3 -0.7 130173 458 4.3 -0.6 98.6 0.0 0.0 -0.1 . Jun 139137 -203 -1.7 -0.6 129981 -192 -1.8 -0.4 98.7 0.1 1.2 0.7 . Jul 139139 2 0.0 -0.5 129932 -49 -0.5 -0.2 99.0 0.3 3.7 0.9 . Aug 139338 199 1.7 -0.1 129873 -59 -0.5 -0.1 99.1 0.1 1.2 1.2 0.1 1.2 1.8 . Sep 139344 6 0.1 0.4 129844 -29 -0.3 0.1 99.2 . Oct 139072 -272 -2.3 0.5 130015 171 1.6 0.4 99.4 0.2 2.4 2.3 . Nov 138937 -135 -1.2 0.2 130108 93 0.9 0.5 99.5 0.1 1.2 1.8 . Dec 139220 283 2.5 0.9 130260 152 1.4 0.7 99.6 0.1 1.2 2.0 2011 Jan 139330 110 1.0 0.6 130328 68 0.6 0.8 99.4 -0.2 -2.4 1.5 . Feb 139551 221 1.9 0.6 130563 235 2.2 1.0 100.2 0.8 10.1 2.7 . Mar 139764 213 1.8 0.7 130757 194 1.8 1.0 100.5 0.3 3.7 2.4 . Apr 139628 -136 -1.2 0.2 130974 217 2.0 1.0 100.7 0.2 2.4 2.1 . May 139808 180 1.6 0.3 131027 53 0.5 0.7 100.8 0.1 1.2 2.2 . Jun 139385 -423 -3.6 0.2 131047 20 0.2 0.8 100.8 0.0 0.0 2.1 . Jul 139450 65 0.6 0.2 131174 127 1.2 1.0 101.0 0.2 2.4 2.0 . Aug 139754 304 2.6 0.3 131278 104 1.0 1.1 100.8 -0.2 -2.4 1.7 . Sep 140107 353 3.1 0.5 131488 210 1.9 1.3 101.3 0.5 6.1 2.1 2.4 . Oct 140297 190 1.6 0.9 131600 112 1.0 1.2 101.8 0.5 6.1 . Nov 140614 317 2.7 1.2 131700 100 0.9 1.2 101.6 -0.2 -2.3 2.1 . Dec 140790 176 1.5 1.1 131900 200 1.8 1.3 102.1 0.5 6.1 2.5 Research Division 26 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 02/01/12 National Economic Trends Retail and Food Services Sales Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago Industrial Production Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago Treasury Yields Unempl. Rate Billions of dollars 2007 . 4.6 4454.439 . . 3.3 100.0000 . . 2.7 4.35 4.63 2008 . 5.8 4401.327 . . -1.2 96.2907 . . -3.7 1.37 3.67 2009 . 9.3 4093.193 . . -7.0 85.5452 . . -11.2 0.15 3.26 2010 . 9.6 4353.149 . . 6.4 90.0658 . . 5.3 0.14 3.21 2011 . 9.0 4690.356 . . 7.7 93.7994 . . 4.1 0.05 2.79 Index (Percent) 3-mo 10-yr 2009 1 8.3 1009.353 -2.0 -7.8 -10.1 86.6582 -5.1 -18.9 -13.5 0.21 2.74 . 2 9.3 1010.378 0.1 0.4 -10.6 84.0560 -3.0 -11.5 -14.6 0.17 3.31 . 3 9.6 1031.826 2.1 8.8 -7.7 85.1501 1.3 5.3 -10.6 0.16 3.52 . 4 9.9 1041.636 1.0 3.9 1.1 86.3166 1.4 5.6 -5.5 0.06 3.46 2010 1 9.8 1063.065 2.1 8.5 5.3 88.0179 2.0 8.1 1.6 0.11 3.72 . 2 9.6 1079.719 1.6 6.4 6.9 89.5349 1.7 7.1 6.5 0.15 3.49 . 3 9.5 1089.529 0.9 3.7 5.6 91.0081 1.6 6.7 6.9 0.16 2.79 . 4 9.6 1120.836 2.9 12.0 7.6 91.7023 0.8 3.1 6.2 0.14 2.86 2011 1 9.0 1150.261 2.6 10.9 8.2 92.7783 1.2 4.8 5.4 0.13 3.46 . 2 9.0 1163.511 1.2 4.7 7.8 92.9392 0.2 0.7 3.8 0.05 3.21 . 3 9.1 1177.057 1.2 4.7 8.0 94.3755 1.5 6.3 3.7 0.02 2.43 . 4 8.7 1199.527 1.9 7.9 7.0 95.1046 0.8 3.1 3.7 0.01 2.05 2010 Jan 9.7 351.079 0.4 4.5 3.6 87.7492 1.2 15.2 0.3 0.06 3.73 . Feb 9.8 352.109 0.3 3.6 4.2 87.9129 0.2 2.3 1.1 0.11 3.69 359.877 2.2 29.9 8.2 88.3915 0.5 6.7 3.3 0.15 3.73 . Mar 9.8 . Apr 9.9 361.735 0.5 6.4 8.5 88.7051 0.4 4.3 4.6 0.16 3.85 . May 9.6 359.262 -0.7 -7.9 6.9 89.9025 1.3 17.5 7.2 0.16 3.42 . Jun 9.4 358.722 -0.2 -1.8 5.3 89.9970 0.1 1.3 7.7 0.12 3.20 . Jul 9.5 359.446 0.2 2.4 5.4 90.7919 0.9 11.1 7.5 0.16 3.01 . Aug 9.6 363.666 1.2 15.0 4.1 90.9898 0.2 2.6 6.8 0.16 2.70 . Sep 9.5 366.417 0.8 9.5 7.3 91.2427 0.3 3.4 6.3 0.15 2.65 . Oct 9.5 370.676 1.2 14.9 7.8 91.1385 -0.1 -1.4 6.0 0.13 2.54 . Nov 9.8 373.952 0.9 11.1 7.4 91.4039 0.3 3.6 6.0 0.14 2.76 . Dec 9.4 376.208 0.6 7.5 7.6 92.5646 1.3 16.3 6.7 0.14 3.29 3.39 2011 Jan 9.1 379.257 0.8 10.2 8.0 92.7949 0.2 3.0 5.8 0.15 . Feb 9.0 384.044 1.3 16.2 9.1 92.4512 -0.4 -4.4 5.2 0.13 3.58 . Mar 8.9 386.960 0.8 9.5 7.5 93.0888 0.7 8.6 5.3 0.10 3.41 . Apr 9.0 387.705 0.2 2.3 7.2 92.7082 -0.4 -4.8 4.5 0.06 3.46 . May 9.0 387.522 -0.0 -0.6 7.9 92.9949 0.3 3.8 3.4 0.04 3.17 . Jun 9.1 388.284 0.2 2.4 8.2 93.1144 0.1 1.6 3.5 0.04 3.00 . Jul 9.1 389.934 0.4 5.2 8.5 94.1475 1.1 14.2 3.7 0.04 3.00 . Aug 9.1 391.074 0.3 3.6 7.5 94.3736 0.2 2.9 3.7 0.02 2.30 . Sep 9.0 396.049 1.3 16.4 8.1 94.6055 0.2 3.0 3.7 0.01 1.98 . Oct 8.9 398.645 0.7 8.2 7.5 95.1458 0.6 7.1 4.4 0.02 2.15 . Nov 8.7 400.268 0.4 5.0 7.0 94.8765 -0.3 -3.3 3.8 0.01 2.01 . Dec 8.5 400.614 0.1 1.0 6.5 95.2915 0.4 5.4 2.9 0.01 1.98 2012 Jan . . . . . . . . . 0.03 1.97 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 27 updated through 01/23/12 National Economic Trends Consumer Price Index Consumer Price Index less Food and Energy Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago Index Year to date Index Producer Price Index Finished Goods Year to date Index Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago 2007 . 207.337 . . 2.9 . 210.728 . . 2.3 . 166.6 . . 3.9 2008 . 215.251 . . 3.8 . 215.567 . . 2.3 . 177.2 . . 6.4 2009 . 214.548 . . -0.3 . 219.237 . . 1.7 . 172.7 . . -2.5 2010 . 218.079 . . 1.6 . 221.337 . . 1.0 . 179.9 . . 4.2 2011 . 224.937 . . 3.1 . 225.008 . . 1.7 . 190.8 . . 6.0 2009 1 212.451 -0.6 -2.4 -0.2 -2.4 217.710 0.4 1.6 1.7 1.6 170.3 -1.6 -6.4 -2.1 . 2 213.468 0.5 1.9 -1.0 -0.3 218.916 0.6 2.2 1.8 1.9 171.6 0.8 3.2 -4.1 . 3 215.419 0.9 3.7 -1.6 1.0 219.691 0.4 1.4 1.5 1.7 173.1 0.9 3.5 -5.2 . 4 216.853 0.7 2.7 1.5 1.5 220.629 0.4 1.7 1.7 1.7 175.7 1.5 6.1 1.5 2010 1 217.544 0.3 1.3 2.4 1.3 220.603 -0.0 -0.0 1.3 -0.0 178.9 1.8 7.4 5.1 . 2 217.270 -0.1 -0.5 1.8 0.4 221.053 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.4 179.0 0.1 0.3 4.3 . 3 218.039 0.4 1.4 1.2 0.7 221.671 0.3 1.1 0.9 0.6 179.5 0.3 1.1 3.7 . 4 219.465 0.7 2.6 1.2 1.2 222.021 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 182.3 1.6 6.5 3.8 2011 1 222.274 1.3 5.2 2.2 5.2 222.982 0.4 1.7 1.1 1.7 187.7 3.0 12.4 5.0 . 2 224.514 1.0 4.1 3.3 4.7 224.363 0.6 2.5 1.5 2.1 191.0 1.7 7.1 6.7 . 3 226.216 0.8 3.1 3.8 4.1 225.871 0.7 2.7 1.9 2.3 191.9 0.5 1.9 6.9 . 4 226.743 0.2 0.9 3.3 3.3 226.815 0.4 1.7 2.2 2.2 192.6 0.4 1.5 5.6 Dec 217.158 0.1 1.1 2.8 2.8 220.783 0.1 0.9 1.8 1.8 176.9 0.3 4.2 4.4 4.7 2009 2010 Jan 217.458 0.1 1.7 2.6 1.7 220.494 -0.1 -1.6 1.5 -1.6 178.9 1.1 14.4 . Feb 217.562 0.0 0.6 2.2 1.1 220.619 0.1 0.7 1.3 -0.4 178.2 -0.4 -4.6 4.4 . Mar 217.611 0.0 0.3 2.4 0.8 220.695 0.0 0.4 1.2 -0.2 179.5 0.7 9.1 6.0 . Apr 217.625 0.0 0.1 2.3 0.6 220.786 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.0 179.4 -0.1 -0.7 5.3 . May 217.320 -0.1 -1.7 2.0 0.2 221.041 0.1 1.4 1.0 0.3 179.1 -0.2 -2.0 5.0 . Jun 216.865 -0.2 -2.5 1.1 -0.3 221.331 0.1 1.6 1.0 0.5 178.5 -0.3 -3.9 2.6 . Jul 217.621 0.3 4.3 1.3 0.4 221.557 0.1 1.2 1.0 0.6 178.6 0.1 0.7 4.0 . Aug 218.068 0.2 2.5 1.2 0.6 221.691 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.6 179.7 0.6 7.6 3.2 . Sep 218.427 0.2 2.0 1.1 0.8 221.765 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.6 180.2 0.3 3.4 3.9 . Oct 218.970 0.2 3.0 1.2 1.0 221.795 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 181.2 0.6 6.9 4.2 . Nov 219.240 0.1 1.5 1.1 1.0 222.059 0.1 1.4 0.7 0.6 182.1 0.5 6.1 3.3 . Dec 220.186 0.4 5.3 1.4 1.4 222.210 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.6 183.7 0.9 11.1 3.8 2011 Jan 221.062 0.4 4.9 1.7 4.9 222.587 0.2 2.1 0.9 2.1 185.5 1.0 12.4 3.7 . Feb 222.270 0.5 6.8 2.2 5.8 223.029 0.2 2.4 1.1 2.2 188.2 1.5 18.9 5.6 . Mar 223.490 0.5 6.8 2.7 6.1 223.331 0.1 1.6 1.2 2.0 189.5 0.7 8.6 5.6 . Apr 224.433 0.4 5.2 3.1 5.9 223.745 0.2 2.2 1.3 2.1 191.0 0.8 9.9 6.5 . May 224.804 0.2 2.0 3.4 5.1 224.387 0.3 3.5 1.5 2.4 191.2 0.1 1.3 6.8 . Jun 224.304 -0.2 -2.6 3.4 3.8 224.958 0.3 3.1 1.6 2.5 190.7 -0.3 -3.1 6.8 . Jul 225.425 0.5 6.2 3.6 4.1 225.463 0.2 2.7 1.8 2.5 191.2 0.3 3.2 7.1 . Aug 226.268 0.4 4.6 3.8 4.2 226.014 0.2 3.0 2.0 2.6 191.5 0.2 1.9 6.6 . Sep 226.955 0.3 3.7 3.9 4.1 226.137 0.1 0.7 2.0 2.4 192.9 0.7 9.1 7.0 . Oct 226.763 -0.1 -1.0 3.6 3.6 226.444 0.1 1.6 2.1 2.3 192.3 -0.3 -3.7 6.1 . Nov 226.720 -0.0 -0.2 3.4 3.2 226.836 0.2 2.1 2.2 2.3 192.8 0.3 3.2 5.9 . Dec 226.747 0.0 0.1 3.0 3.0 227.166 0.1 1.8 2.2 2.2 192.6 -0.1 -1.2 4.8 Research Division 28 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis National Economic Trends Notes Pages 4, 5: Final Sales is gross domestic product (GDP) minus change in private inventories. Advance, Second, and Third GDP Growth Rates are released during the first, second, and third months of the following quarter. Changes result from incorporation of more complete information. Real GDP is measured in 2005 dollars. The ISM (formerly Purchasing Managers’) Index is a weighted average of diffusion indexes for new orders, production, supplier deliveries, inventories, and employment. Aggregate and Average Weekly Hours are paid hours of production and nonsupervisory employees. The Inventory-Sales Ratio uses nominal (current-dollar) inventory and sales data. Page 6: For information on how to calculate the Contribution of a component to the overall GDP growth rate, see the October 1999 issue of the Survey of Current Business, p. 16. The sign is changed for Imports. Page 7: Ten-year Treasury Yields are adjusted to constant maturity; threemonth yields are secondary market averages. All rates used in the yield curves are adjusted to constant maturity. Standard and Poor’s 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends shows the total return: capital gains plus dividends. Pages 8, 9: Oil (West Texas intermediate) and Natural Gas (Henry Hub) spot and futures prices are listed in the Wall Street Journal. Spot prices are monthly averages of daily prices; futures prices are usually taken from the last trading day of the month. Consumer Price Index is for all urban consumers. The Consumption Chain Price Index is the index associated with the personal consumption expenditures component of GDP. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) covers private nonfarm employers. ECI Compensation refers to a fixed sample of jobs, while Compensation per Hour covers all workers in the nonfarm business sector in a given quarter. In both cases, compensation is wages and salaries plus benefits. Pages 10, 11: Effective with the January 2008 Employment Situation, the establishment survey data for employment, hours, and earnings have been converted from the 2002 NAICS system to the 2007 NAICS system. For more information see http://www.bls.gov/ces/. Nonfarm Payroll Employment is counted in a survey of about 400,000 establishments (Current Employment Statistics). It excludes self-employed individuals and workers in private households, but double-counts individuals with more than one job. The Household Survey (Current Population Survey) of about 60,000 households provides estimates of civilian employment, unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and employment-population ratio. Population is civilian, noninstitutional, 16 years and over. The 90 percent confidence intervals for the unemployment rate (± 0.2 percentage points) and change in household survey employment (± 430,000) measure uncertainty due to sample size. Because the household survey was changed in January 1994, data prior to this date are not strictly comparable. The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced several revisions to the Household Survey on Feb. 7, 2003, with the release of the January 2003 data. For more information, see <www.bls.gov/cps/>. The Job Openings rate is the number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a percent of total employment plus job openings. Page 13: The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index shows changes in a summary measure of consumers’ answers to five questions about their current and expected financial situation, expectations about future economic conditions, and attitudes about making large purchases. The survey is based on a representative sample of U.S. households. investment and include consumption of government capital, while unified budget outlays do the reverse; (3) NIPA accounts exclude Puerto Rico and U.S. territories; and (4) various timing issues are handled differently. Outlays and Receipts are from the NIPAs, except as noted. Since 1977, the federal Fiscal Year starts on October 1. Excluded agency debt was 0.6 percent of federal debt at the end of fiscal 1997. Federal Debt Held by the Public includes holdings of the Federal Reserve System and excludes holdings of the social security and other federal trust funds. Federal grants in aid to state and local governments appear in both state and local receipts and federal outlays. Pages 18, 19: The Trade Balance (shown on a balance of payments basis) is the difference between exports and imports of goods (merchandise) and services. It is nearly identical in concept to the Net Exports component of GDP, but differs slightly in accounting details. The Investment Income Balance equals income received from U.S.-owned assets in other countries minus income paid on foreign-owned assets in the U.S. The investment income balance is nearly identical in concept to the difference between gross national product and gross domestic product, but differs in accounting details. The Current Account Balance is the trade balance plus the balance on investment income plus net unilateral transfers to the U.S. from other countries. Pages 20, 21: Output per Hour (Y/H), Unit Labor Cost (C/Y), and Compensation per Hour (C/H) are indexes which approximately obey the following relationship: %(Y/H) + %(C/Y) = %(C/H) with %() meaning percent changes. Unit labor cost is shown on page 9. Real Compensation per Hour uses the CPI to adjust for the effects of inflation. Nonfarm business accounted for about 77 percent of the value of GDP in 2000, while nonfinancial corporations accounted for about 54 percent. Inventory Valuation Adjustments (IVA) remove the effect of changes in the value of existing inventories from corporate profits and proprietors’ income. (This change in value does not correspond to current production and therefore is not part of GDP). Capital Consumption Adjustments (CCAdj) increase profits and proprietors’ income by the difference between estimates of economic depreciation and depreciation allowed by the tax code. Components of national income not shown are rental income of persons and net interest. Pages 22, 23: The economic projections of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are published four times a year. Except for the unemployment rate, the projections for the current and following years are on a Q4/Q4 horizon. The shaded area represents the range of the economic projections of the FOMC members, and the dot signifies the mid-point of the ranges. The projections of the changes in the total PCE price index and the core PCE price index (excluding food and energy prices) are presumed to converge over time. Sources Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Dept. of Commerce National income and product accounts, international trade and investment data (except by country), auto and light truck sales. Census Bureau, U.S. Dept. of Commerce Inventory-sales ratios, retail sales, capital goods orders, housing starts, exports and imports by country. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Dept. of Labor All employment-related data, employment cost index, consumer and producer price indexes, unit labor cost, output per hour, compensation per hour, multifactor productivity. Page 15: Gross Private Saving is the sum of personal saving, undistributed corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj (see notes for pp. 18-19), and private wage accruals less disbursements. Gross Government Saving is net government saving (surplus/deficit) plus consumption of fixed capital. Balance on Current Account (NIPA) is net capital transfer payments to the rest of the world plus net lending or net borrowing (international trade and income flows). United States Department of Treasury Unified budget receipts, outlays, deficit, debt. Pages 16, 17: Government Consumption and Investment is current expenditures on goods and services, including capital consumption (depreciation) and gross investment, as reported in the NIPAs. The Unified Federal Budget Surplus/Deficit differs from NIPA Basis in four main ways: (1) NIPA excludes transactions involving existing assets; (2) NIPA outlays exclude government The Survey Research Center, The University of Michigan Consumer sentiment index. Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Federal Reserve Board Index of industrial production, treasury yields, exchange rates, capacity utilization, household debt. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) GDP for major trading partners (not available on FRED). 29
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