Full text of National Economic Trends : February 1993
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N ational
Economic
Trends
The Delayed Recovery
of Employment
to previous recoveries. Thus the small employment
increase has comprised a relatively large number of
people still losing jobs barely offset by a slightly
larger number of people finding new jobs.
Why has employment growth been so weak? One
reason is that output growth has also been weak during
this recovery. A complementary reason is that pro
ductivity growth has been fairly strong. Expanding
businesses have thus been able to produce additional
output without hiring many new employees.
Real gross domestic product has been increasing
since the first quarter of 1991 and passed its prereces
sion level in the third quarter of 1992. Technically
this means the recession is over, but many people find
this hard to believe. The chart below gives one reason
why. It compares nonfarm payroll employment for
the twenty-one months after the March 1991 trough
— Joseph A. Ritter
of economic activity to the average
recovery of employment following the
low points of seven previous recessions.1
Nonfarm Payroll Employment Following NBER Troughs
Twenty-one months after previous
Employment (Trough=1.0)
roughs, employment had increased by
6.8 percent on average. The smallest
increase was 4.8 percent following
the 1961 trough. For the most recent
period, March 1991 through December
1992, employment grew by only
0.3 percent.
One illuminating facet of the recent
employment situation can be examined
by dividing unemployed people into
four groups: job losers, job leavers,
those reentering the labor force, and
those entering for the first time. In
contrast to previous recoveries, after
the business cycle trough in March 1991
the number of people unemployed
because they lost their jobs continued
to rise for more than a year while num
bers of new entrants, reentrants, and
Months After Trough
job leavers followed a pattern similar
1 The recovery following the July 1980 trough is excluded because
another recession started only a year later.
Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System.
National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research and Public Information Division. Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing
Research and Public Information, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or by calling 314-444-8809.
Information in this publication is also included in the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board. You can access FRED with a personal
computer and a modem at 314-621-1824.
Consumer Price Index - All Urban Consumers
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent
1986
1987
1988
1989
Percent
1990
1991
1992
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Consumer Price Index
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
Initial Month
5-91
6-91
7-9]
8-91
9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
1982-84=100
4-92
5-92
6-92
7-92
8-92
9-92 10-92 11-92
6-91
3.6
7-91
2.2
8-91
2.7
2.2
3.6
9-91
3.1
3.0
4.0
4.5
10-91
3.0
2.9
3.6
3.6
2.7
11-91
3.3
3.2
3.8
3.9
3.6
4.5
12-91
3.2
3.1
3.6
3.6
3.2
3.5
2.6
1-92
2.9
2.8
3.1
3.0
2.6
2.6
1.8
0.9
2-92
3.0
2.9
3.2
3.1
2.8
2.9
2.3
2.2
3.5
3-92
3.3
3.2
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.5
3.3
3.5
4.9
6.2
4-92
3.2
3.2
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.4
3.2
3.3
4.1
4.4
2.6
5-92
3.1
3.0
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.1
2.9
3.0
3.5
3.5
2.2
1.7
6-92
3.1
3.1
3.3
3.3
3.1
3.2
3.0
3.1
3.5
3.5
2.6
2.6
3.5
7-92
3.0
3.0
3.2
3.1
3.0
3.0
2.8
2.9
3.2
3.1
2.4
2.3
2.6
1.7
8-92
3.1
3.0
3.2
3.1
3.0
3.1
2.9
2.9
3.2
3.2
2.6
2.6
2.9
2.6
3.5
9-92
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.0
2.9
2.9
3.2
3.1
2.6
2.6
2.8
2.6
3.0
2.6
10-92
3.2
3.1
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.4
3.4
3.0
3.0
3.3
3.2
3.8
3.9
5.2
11-92
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.2
3.0
3.1
3.3
3.3
2.9
3.0
3.2
3.1
3.5
3.5
3.9
2.6
12-92
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.0
2.9
2.9
3.1
3.0
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.7
2.9
2.8
2.9
1.7
5-91
6-91
7-91
8-91
9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
5-92
6-92
7-92
8-92
136.1
0.9
136.2
136.6
137.1
137.4
137.9
138.2
138.3
138.7
139.4
139.7
139.9
140.3
140.5
140.9
141.2
141.8
142.1
0.8
142.2
9-92 10-92 11-92
Prepared by Federal Reserve Sank of St. Louis
December 11, 1992
2
Consumer Price Index - Food
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terninal
Month
Initial Month
5-91
6-91
7-91
8-91
9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91
6-91
5.4
7-91
-0.4
-5.9
8-91
-1.2
-4.3
-2.6
9-91
-0.4
-2.3
-0.4
1.8
10-91
-0.5
-2.0
-0.6
0.4
-0.9
11-91
0.4
-0.5
0.9
2.1
2.2
5.4
1-92
2-92
3-92
1982-64=100
4-92
5-92
6-92
7-92
8-92
9-92 10-92 11-92
137.3
136.6
136.3
136.5
136.4
137.0
12-91
0.9
0.1
1.4
2.4
2.7
4.5
3.6
1-92
0.1
-0.6
0.3
0.9
0.7
1.2
-0.9
-5.1
2-92
0.5
-0.1
0.8
1.3
1.2
1.8
0.6
-0.9
3.6
3-92
1.1
0.6
1.4
2.0
2.1
2.7
2.0
1.5
4.9
6.3
4-92
0.9
0.4
1.2
1.7
1.6
2.1
1.4
0.9
3.0
2.7
5-92
0.4
0.0
0.6
1.0
0.9
1.1
0.4
-0.2
1.1
0.3
-2.6
-4.3
6-92
0.5
0.1
0.7
1.1
1.0
1.2
0.6
0.1
1.2
0.7
-1.2
-1.3
1.8
7-92
0.4
0.0
0.5
0.8
0.7
0.9
0.3
-0.1
0.7
0.2
-1.3
-1.4
0.0
-1.7
8-92
1.1
0.7
1.3
1.6
1.6
1.9
1.5
1.2
2.1
1.9
1.0
1.5
3.5
4.4
11.0
9-92
1.3
1.0
1.6
1.9
1.9
2.2
1.8
1.7
2.5
2.4
1.7
2.3
4.0
4.7
8.1
5.3
10-92
1.2
1.0
1.5
1.8
1.8
2.0
1.7
1.5
2.2
2.1
1.5
1.9
3.2
3.5
5.3
2.6
0.0
11-92
1.2
0.9
1.4
1.6
1.6
1.8
1.5
1.4
2.0
1.9
1.3
1.6
2.6
2.8
4.0
1.7
0.0
0.0
12-92
1.2
1.0
1.4
1.7
1.7
1.9
1.6
1.5
2.1
1.9
1.5
1.7
2.6
2.8
3.7
2.0
0.9
1.3
5-91
6-91
7-91
8-91
9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
5-92
6-92
7-92
8-92
137.4
136.8
137.2
137.9
-0.9
137.8
137.3
137.5
137.3
138.5
139.1
139.1
139.1
2.6
139.4
9-92 10-92 11-92
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
December 11, 1992
Consumer Price Index - Energy
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terninal
Month
Initial Month
5-91
6-91
7-91
8-91
9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
1982-84=100
4-92
5-92
6-92
7-92
8-92
9-92 10-92 11-92
6-91
-2.3
7-91
-4.1
-5.8
8-91
-0.4
0.6
7.4
9-91
0.3
1.2
4.9
2.4
10-91
0.2
0.9
3.2
1.2
0.0
11-91
1.8
2.6
4.8
4.0
4.8
9.9
12-91
1.7
2.4
4.1
3.3
3.6
5.4
1-92
-0.7
-0.5
0.4
-0.9
-1.8
-2.3
-7.9 -16.2
2-92
-1.8
-1.8
-1.2
-2.6
-3.5
-4.4
-8.7 -13.3 -10.2
3-92
-0.9
-0.8
-0.1
-1.2
-1.8
-2.1
-4.9
-6.9
-1.8
7.5
4-92
-0.4
-0.2
0.4
-0.4
-0.8
-1.0
-3.0
-4.0
0.4
6.2
4.9
5-92
0.2
0.4
1.1
0.4
0.1
0.2
-1.4
-1.9
2.1
6.6
6.1
7.4
6-92
2.0
2.4
3.1
2.7
2.8
3.1
2.2
2.4
6.5
11.2
12.5
16.5
26.4
7-92
2.1
2.5
3.2
2.8
2.8
3.2
2.4
2.5
6.0
9.6
10.2
12.0
14.4
3.5
8-92
1.8
2.1
2.7
2.4
2.4
2.6
1.8
1.9
4.8
7.5
7.6
8.2
8.5
0.6
-2.3
9-92
1.7
2.0
2.6
2.2
2.2
2.4
1.6
1.7
4.2
6.4
6.3
6.5
6.3
0.4
-1.2
0.0
10-92
1.9
2.2
2.8
2.5
2.5
2.7
2.0
2.1
4.4
6.4
6.2
6.4
6.3
1.7
1.2
2.9
5.9
11-92
2.4
2.6
3.2
2.9
3.0
3.2
2.6
2.8
4.9
6.7
6.6
6.9
6.8
3.3
3.2
5.1
7.8
9.6
12-92
1.9
2.1
2.6
2.3
2.3
2.4
1.9
2.0
3.8
5.3
5.1
5.1
4.8
1.6
1.2
2.0
2.7
1.2
5-91
6-91
7-91
8-91
9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
5-92
6-92
7-92
8-92
101.1
100.6
101.2
101.4
101.4
102.2
1.2
102.3
100.8
99.9
100.5
100.9
101.5
103.5
103.8
103.6
103.6
104.1
104.9
-6.7
104.3
9-92 10-92 11-92
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Deceaber 11, 1992
Producer Price Index - Finished Goods
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent
1986
1987
1988
1989
Percent
1990
1991
1992
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Producer Price Index - Finished Goods
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Teminal
Month
Initial Month
5-91
6-91
7-91
8-91
9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91
6-91
-2.0
7-91
-2.0
-2.0
8-91
-0.3
0.5
3.0
9-91
0.5
1.3
3.0
3.0
10-91
1.0
1.7
3.0
3.0
3.0
11-91
1.0
1.6
2.5
2.3
2.0
1-92
2-92
3-92
1982 = 100
4-92
5-92
6-92
7-92
8-92
9-92 10-92 11-92
121.4
121.2
121.5
121.8
122.1
1.0
122.2
12-91
0.7
1.2
1.8
1.5
1.0
0.0
-1.0
1-92
0.4
0.7
1.2
0.8
0.2
-0.7
-1.5
-1.9
2-92
0.7
1.0
1.4
1.2
0.8
0.2
0.0
0.5
3.0
3-92
0.8
1.1
1.5
1.3
1.0
0.6
0.5
1.0
2.5
2.0
4-92
1.1
1.4
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.1
1.2
1.7
3.0
3.0
4.0
5-92
1.2
1.5
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.5
2.0
3.0
3.0
3.5
3.0
6-92
1.4
1.6
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.7
2.1
3.0
3.0
3.3
3.0
3.0
7-92
1.3
1.5
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.4
1.5
1.8
2.5
2.4
2.5
2.0
1.5
0.0
8-92
1.2
1.5
1.8
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.7
2.3
2.1
2.2
1.7
1.3
0.5
1.0
9-92
1.4
1.6
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.7
2.0
2.5
2.4
2.5
2.2
2.0
1.6
2.5
4.0
10-92
1.4
1.6
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.9
2.3
2.2
2.3
2.0
1.8
1.5
2.0
2.5
1.0
11-92
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.4
1.8
1.6
1.6
1.3
1.0
0.6
0.7
0.6
-1.0
-2.9
12-92
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.5
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.3
1.1
0.8
1.0
1.0
0.0
-0.5
5-91
6-91
7-91
8-91
9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
5-92
6-92
7-92
8-92
122.1
121.9
122.2
122.4
122.8
123.1
123.4
123.4
123.5
123.9
124.0
123.7
2.0
123.9
9-92 10-92 11-92
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Deceaber 10, 1992
Civilian Em ploym ent and U nem ploym ent Rate
Seasonally Adjusted
Millions of P ersons
126
119
112
105
1986
1987
1988
1989
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
P ercen tages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Civilian Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Thousands of
Persons
Initial Month
Terninai
Month
" '*
5-91
6-91
2.1
7-91
0.2
-1.8
8-91
-0.5
-1.8
-1.9
9-91
1.1
0.8
2.1
6.2
10-91
0.6
0.2
0.9
2.4
-1.3
11-91
0.4
0.1
0.6
1.4
-0.9
-0.5
12-91
0.1
-0.2
0.1
0.6
-1.2
-1.2
-1.8
1-92
0.5
0.2
0.6
1.1
-0.2
0.2
0.5
5.0
2-92
0.5
0.1
0.4
0.8
-0.5
0.0
0.1
1.1
-0.8
5-92
0.6
0.4
0.7
1.1
0.5
0.6
0.9
1.8
1.2
3.1
4-92
0.8
0.7
0.9
1.5
0.6
0.9
1.2
2.0
1.7
2.9
2.6
5-92
0.8
0.6
0.9
1.2
0.6
0.9
1.1
1.7
1.4
2.1
1.6
0.6
6-92
0.7
0.5
0.7
1.0
0.5
0.7
0.8
1.5
1.0
1.4
0.8
0.0
-0.7
7-92
0.8
0.7
0.9
1.1
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.4
1.2
1.6
1.2
0.7
0.7
2.2
8-92
0.8
0.7
0.8
1.1
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.3
1.1
1.4
1.1
0.7
0.7
1.4
0*6
9-92
0.7
0.6
0.7
1.0
0.5
0.7
0.8
1.1
0.9
1.1
0.8
0.4
0.4
0.7
0.0
-0.6
10-92
0.6
0.5
0.7
0.9
0.5
0.6
0.7
1.0
0.7
0.9
0.6
0.3
0.2
0.5
-0.1
-0.5
-0.4
11-92
0.8
0.7
0.9
1.1
0.7
0.9
1.0
1.2
1.1
1.3
1.0
0.8
0.8
1.1
0.9
1.0
1.7
3.9
12-92
0.9
0.8
1.0
1.1
0.8
1.0
1.1
1.3
1.2
1.4
1.2
1.0
1.1
1.4
1.2
1.4
2.0
3.2
5-91
6-91
7-91
8-91
9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
5-92
6-92
7-92
8-92
6-91
7-91
8-91 ,9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
5-92
6-92
7-92
8-92
9-92 10-92 11-92
116,884
116,711
116,522
117,108
116,980
116,932
116,752
117,036
116,962
117,264
117,518
117,580
117,510
117,722
117,780
117,724
117,687
118,064
2.5
118,311
9-92 10-92 11-92
Revised fro« 1988.
Prepared by Foderai Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Ducenber 4, 1992
Payroll Em ploym ent
Seasonally Adjusted
Millions of Persons
Millions of Persons
125
125
115
115
105
105
95
85
75
1
65
1---- ---- 1---- 1---- '---- ---- 1---- 1---- '---- ---- T----1---- r
1986
1987
1988
1992
1991
1990
1989
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
P ercen tages are annual rates of chan ge for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Payroll Employment
(Compounded Annua] Rates o f Change)
Terninal
Month
Thousands of
Parsons
Initial Month
5-91
6-91
7-91
8-91
9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91
6-91
-0.4
7-91
-0.4
-0.4
8-91
0.0
0.2
0.9
9-91
0.1
0.2
0.6
0.3
10-91
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.1
-0.1
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
5-92
6-92
7-92
8-92
9-92 10-92 11-92
108,227
108,190
108,267
108,293
108,285
11-91
-0.2
-0.2
-0.1
-0.5
-0.9
-1.6
12-91
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.3
-0.5
-0.7
0.2
1-92
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.4
-0.5
-0.7
-0.2
-0.6
108,139
108,154
108,100
2-92
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
0.0
-0.1
0.5
3-92
-0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
0.2
0.2
0.6
0.6
4-92
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.5
0.6
1.0
1.3
2.0
5-92
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.7
0.8
1.1
1.3
1.7
1.3
6-92
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.5
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.3
-0.8
7-92
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.6
0.7
0.9
1.0
1.1
0.8
0.5
1.9
8-92
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.3
0.0
0.3
-1.2
9-92
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.3
0.0
0.3
-0.5
0.1
10-92
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.4
-0.1
0.5
0.8
11-92
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.5
0.1
0.6
0.8
0.8
12-92
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.3
0.5
0.3
0.6
0.8
0.8
5-91
6-91
7-91
8-91
9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
5-92
6-92
7-92
8-92
108,142
108,200
108,377
108,496
108,423
108,594
108,485
108,497
108,571
108,647
0.7
108,711
9-92 10-92 11-92
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Dece«ber 4, 1992
Service-Producing Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Thousands of
Persons
Initial Month
Terminal
Month
5-91
6-91
7-91
8-91
9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
5-92
6-92
7-92
8-92
9-92 10-92 11-92
84,418
6-91
0.2
7-91
0.0
-0.3
8-91
0.4
0.4
1.1
9-91
0.5
0.6
1.0
0.9
10-91
0.5
0.6
0.9
0.7
0.6
11-91
0.3
0.3
0.5
0.2
-0.1
-0.8
12-91
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.3
0.2
-0.1
0.6
1-92
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.0
2-92
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.3
0.6
3-92
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.5
0.5
0.7
0.7
4-92
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.9
1.0
1.3
1.6
2.6
5-92
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
1.0
1.1
1.3
1.6
2.0
1.4
6-92
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.9
0.9
1.1
1.2
1.4
0.8
0.1
7-92
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.9
1.1
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.4
1.3
2.6
8-92
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.0
0.8
1.2
-0.2
9-92
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.0
0.9
1.2
0.5
1.1
10-92
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.1
1.0
1.2
0.8
1.3
1.4
11-92
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.0
1.2
0.8
1.2
1.2
1.0
12-92
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.0
1.0
1.1
0.9
1.1
1.1
1.0
5-91
6-91
7-91
8-91
9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
5-92
6-92
7-92
8-92
84,398
84,476
84,538
84,581
84,526
84,570
84,573
84,617
84,668
84,847
84,948
84,953
85,135
85,123
85,201
85,301
85,370
1.0
85,438
9-92 10-92 11-92
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Decenber 4, 1992
Goods-Producing Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Month
5-91
6-91
-2.7
7-91
-1.8
6-91
7-91
8-91
9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91
Initial Month
Persons
2-92 3-92
1-92
Thousands of
4-92
5-92
6-92
7-92
8-92
9-92 10-92 11-92
23,809
23,792
-0.9
23,791
8-91
-0.1
-1.2
-0.5
9-91
-1.4
-0.9
-0.9
-1.8
10-91
-1.5
-2.2
-2.5
-2.2
-3.0
-3.5
-4.5
-2.8
-3.0
-1.5
-2.9
-3.0
-2.2
23,755
23,704
-1.6
-1.3
11-91
-2.1
-2.0
12-91
-2.0
-1.9
-2.1
-2.6
1-92
-2.1
-2.0
-2.2
-2.6
2-92
-1.9
-1.8
-1.9
-2.2
-2.3
-2.2
3-92
-1.7
-1.5
-1.6
-1.9
-1.9
-1.7
4-92
-1.5
-1.4
-1.5
-1.6
-1.6
-1.5
5-92
-1.3
-1.2
-1.2
-1.4
-1.3
-1.1
6-92
-1.5
-1.4
-1.5
-1.6
-1.6
-1.5
7-92
-1.5
-1.4
-1.4
-1.5
-1.5
8-92
-1.7
-1.6
-1.7
-1.8
23,613
23,584
-2.9
23,527
-1.5
-1.5
-0.1
23,525
-1.0
-0.9
0.1
0.4
-0.8
-0.7
0.1
0.1
-0.1
-0.5
-0.4
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.9
-1.0
-1.0
-0.6
-0.7
-1.0
-1.5
-3.9
-1.4
-1.0
-0.9
-0.6
-0.7
-0.9
-1.2
-2.2
-0.6
-1.8
-1.7
-1.4
-1.4
-1.2
-1.4
-1.7
-2.1
-3.1
-2.7
-4.9
23,532
23,530
23,548
23,470
23,459
23,362
9-92
-1.8
-1.7
-1.8
-1.9
-1.9
-1.9
-1.6
-1.6
-1.5
-1.7
-2.0
-2.4
-3.2
-2.9
-4.1
-3.3
10-92
-1.8
-1.7
-1.8
-1.9
-1.9
-1.8
-1.6
-1.6
-1.5
-1.6
-1.9
-2.2
-2.8
-2.5
-3.2
-2.3
-1.3
11-92
-1.6
-1.6
-1.6
-1.7
-1.7
-1.7
-1.4
-1.4
-1.3
-1.4
-1.6
-1.8
-2.3
-2.0
-2.3
-1.4
-8.5
0.4
12-92
-1.6
-1.5
-1.5
-1.6
-1.6
-1.6
-1.3
-1.3
-1.2
-1.3
-1.5
-1.6
-2.0
-1.7
-1.9
-1.1
-0.4
0.1
5-91
6-91
7-91
8-91
9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
5-92
6-92
7-92
8-92
9-92 10-92 11-92
23,296
23,270
23,277
-0.2
23,273
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Deceaber 4, 1992
Change in th e Em ploym ent Cost Index and Its Components
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent
Percent
Total com pensation is the sum o f benefits and w ages and salaries for private industry workers.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Employment Cost Index - Total Compensation
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Teminal
Quarter
Initial Quarter
1-88
2-88
3-88
4-88
1-89
2-89
3-89
4-89
1-90
2-90
3-90
June 1989 - 100
4-90
1-91
2-88
5.2
3-88
4.5
3.8
4-88
4.7
4.4
5.1
1-89
4.7
4.5
4.8
4.6
2-89
4.5
4.4
4.6
4.3
3-89
4.7
4.6
4.8
4.7
4.7
5.3
4-89
4.7
4.6
4.8
4.7
4.7
5.1
4.8
1-90
4.8
4.8
4.9
4.9
5.0
5.2
5.2
5.6
2-90
4.8
4.7
4.9
4.8
4.9
5.1
5.0
5.1
4.7
3-90
4.8
4.7
4.9
4.8
4.9
5.0
4.9
5.0
4.7
4.7
4-90
4.7
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.8
4.7
4.7
4.4
4.2
3.8
1-91
4.7
4.7
4.8
4.7
4.7
4.8
4.8
4.7
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.9
2-91
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.8
4.7
4.7
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.7
4.5
3-91
4.7
4.6
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.4
4.4
4.3
4.5
4.3
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
95.7
96.6
97.8
98.9
4.1
99.9
101.2
102.4
103.8
105.0
106.2
107.2
108.5
109.7
4.1
110.8
4-91
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.5
4.4
4.3
4.3
4.4
4.2
4.1
4.0
1-92
4.6
4.5
4.6
4.5
4.5
4.6
4.5
4.5
4.3
4.3
4.2
4.3
4.1
4.0
4.0
4.0
2-92
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.3
4.3
4.1
4.1
4.0
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.5
3.2
3-92
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.2
4.1
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.0
3.6
4-92
4.4
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.2
4.2
4.0
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.2
3.5
3.5
1-88
2-88
3-88
4-88
1-89
2-89
3-89
4-89
1-90
2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
111.9
113.0
2.5
113.7
114.7
115.7
Data are for the last month of quarter
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 27, 1992
8
Industrial Production
Seasonally Adjusted
1 9 8 7 -1 0 0
1986
1987
1988
1989
1987=100
1990
1991
1992
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
P ercen ta ge s are annual rates of chan ge for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Industrial Production
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Month
Initial Month
5-91
6-91
7-91
8-91
9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
1987 = 100
4-92
5-92
6-92
7-92
8-92
9-92 10-92 11-92
107.3
6-91
10.6
7-91
10.0
9.3
8-91
6.2
4.0
-1.1
9-91
5.7
4.2
1.7
10-91
4.6
3.1
1.1
11-91
3.2
1.8
0.0
0.4
-1.6
-3.3
12-91
1.6
0.2
-1.5
-1.7
-3.6
-5.4
-7.5
1-92
0.3
-1.1
-2.8
-3.1
-4.9
-6.5
-8.0
-8.6
108.1
108.0
108.4
4.5
2.2
108.4
0.0
108.1
107.4
106.6
2-92
1.0
-0.1
-1.4
-1.5
-2.6
-3.3
-3.3
-1.1
7.0
3-92
1.4
0.4
-0.7
-0.6
-1.5
-1.8
-1.4
0.7
5.8
4.6
4-92
1.7
0.9
0.0
0.1
-0.5
-0.6
0.0
2.0
5.7
5.1
5.7
5-92
2.3
1.6
0.9
1.1
0.7
0.8
1.5
3.4
6.6
6.5
7.5
9.3
6-92
1.8
1.1
0.4
0.6
0.1
0.1
0.6
2.1
4.3
3.7
3.4
2.2
-4.3
7-92
2.4
1.8
1.2
1.4
1.1
1.2
1.8
3.2
5.3
5.0
5.1
4.9
2.8
10.4
8-92
2.0
1.4
0.9
1.0
0.7
0.8
1.2
2.4
4.1
3.6
3.4
2.8
0.7
3.4
-3.2
107.2
107.6
108.1
108.9
108.5
109.4
109.1
9-92
1.8
1.2
0.6
0.8
0.5
0.5
0.9
1.9
3.3
2.7
2.4
1.8
0.0
1.5
-2.7
-2.2
10-92
2.2
1.7
1.2
1.3
1.1
1.2
1.6
2.6
3.9
3.5
3.4
3.0
1.8
3.4
1.1
3.3
9.2
11-92
2.3
1.8
1.4
1.6
1.3
1.4
1.9
2.7
4.0
3.6
3.5
3.2
2.2
3.6
1.9
3.7
6.8
4.5
12-92
2.4
2.0
1.6
1.7
1.5
1.7
2.0
2.9
4.0
3.7
3.6
3.3
2.5
3.7
2.4
3.9
6.0
4.5
5-91
6-91
7-91
8-91
9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
5-92
6-92
7-92
8-92
108.9
109.7
110.1
4.4
110.5
9-92 10-92 11-92
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Decenber 16, 1992
9
Personal Incom e in 1987 Dollars
Seasonally Adjusted
Trillions of Dollars
Trillions of Dollars
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
The personal consumption expenditures deflator is used to calculate real personal income
Shaded area represents a period o f business recession.
P ercen tages are annual rates o f chan ge for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Disposable Personal Income in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Month
5-91
6-91
2.5
7-91
0.7
6-91
7-91
8-91
9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91
Initial Honth
Annual Rates
2-92 3-92 4-92
1-92
Billions of Dollars
5-92
6-92
7-92
8-92
9-92 10-92 11-92
3,513.9
-1.2
3,510.4
8-91
0.7
-0.2
0.8
9-91
0.4
-0.3
0.2
-0.5
10-91
1.4
1.1
1.8
2.4
3,512.7
3,511.3
5.3
3,526.4
11-91
0.4
0.0
0.3
0.1
0.4
-4.3
12-91
2.3
2.2
2.9
3.4
4.8
4.5
14.2
1-92
1.8
1.7
2.2
2.5
3.3
2.6
6.3
-1.1
2-92
2.3
2.2
2.7
3.1
3.8
3.4
6.1
2.3
5.8
3-92
2.6
2.6
3.1
3.4
4.1
3.8
6.0
3.4
5.6
5.5
4-92
2.1
2.0
2.4
2.6
3.0
2.7
4.1
1.8
2.7
1.3
-2.8
5-92
2.1
2.0
2.3
2.5
2.9
2.6
3.7
1.8
2.5
1.4
-0.6
1.8
6-92
1.8
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.5
2.1
3.1
1.3
1.8
0.9
-0.6
0.5
-0.8
7-92
1.7
1.6
1.8
1.9
2.2
1.8
2.6
1.1
1.4
0.6
-0.6
0.1
-0.7
-0.6
8-92
1.8
1.7
2.0
2.1
2.3
2.0
2.7
1.4
1.8
1.1
0.2
1.0
0.8
1.6
3.8
9-92
1.6
1.5
1.7
1.8
2.0
1.7
2.3
1.1
1.4
0.8
0.0
0.6
0.3
0.6
1.2
-1.3
10-92
2.1
2.1
2.3
2.4
2.7
2.4
3.1
2.0
2.4
2.0
1.5
2.2
2.3
3.1
4.3
4.6
10.8
11-92
1.8
1.7
1.9
2.0
2.1
1.9
2.4
1.4
1.7
1.2
0.7
1.2
1.1
1.6
2.1
1.5
3.0
-4.3
12-92
2.2
2.2
2.4
2.5
2.7
2.5
3.1
2.2
2.5
2.2
1.8
2.4
2.5
3.1
3.9
3.9
5.7
3.2
5-91
6-91
7-91
8-91
9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
5-92
6-92
7-92
8-92
3,513.4
3,552.5
3,549.3
3,565.9
3,581.9
3,573.3
3,578.6
3,576.1
3,574.4
3,585.5
3,581.7
3,612.4
3,599.1
11.3
3,631.4
9-92 10-92 11-92
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Decenber 27, 1992
10
Retail Sales
Seasonally Adjusted
Billions of Dollars
Billions of Dollars
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
The CPI is used to deflate retail sales data.
P ercen tages are annual rates of chan ge for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Retail Sales in 1982-84 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Tertiinal
Month
5-91
6-91
7-91
8-91
9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91
Initial Month
Dollars
2-92 3-92
1-92
Millions of
4-92
5-92
6-92
7-92
8-92
9-92 10-92 11-92
6-91
-3.6
7-91
-2.3
-0.9
113,644
8-91
-4.9
-5.6
-9.9
9-91
-4.2
-4.4
-6.1
-2.0
10-91
-3.3
-3.2
-3.9
-0.8
0.4
11-91
-3.7
-3.7
-4.4
-2.5
-2.7
-5.8
12-91
-3.4
-3.3
-3.8
-2.2
-2.3
-3.6
-1.3
1-92
0.2
0.7
1.0
3.3
4.7
6.1
12.7
28.6
2-92
1.4
2.0
2.5
4.7
6.1
7.5
12.4
19.9
3-92
-0.8
-0.5
-0.4
1.0
1.6
1.8
3.8
5.5
-4.4 -18.3
4-92
-0.6
-0.3
-0.2
1.1
1.5
1.7
3.3
4.5
-2.5
-9.0
1.3
5-92
-0.2
0.1
0.2
1.4
1.8
2.0
3.4
4.3
-1.0
-4.9
2.6
3.8
6-92
-0.5
-0.3
-0.2
0.8
1.1
1.2
2.2
2.8
-1.7
-4.8
0.2
-0.3
-4.3
7-92
0.3
0.6
0.8
1.8
2.2
2.4
3.5
4.2
0.6
-1.5
3.2
3.8
3.8
12.5
8-92
0.2
0.5
0.6
1.5
1.8
2.0
2.9
3.4
0.2
-1.6
2.2
2.4
1.9
5.1
-1.8
9-92
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.9
2.2
2.4
3.2
3.7
1.0
-0.5
2.8
3.2
3.0
5.5
2.2
6.3
10-92
1.7
2.1
2.3
3.2
3.6
3.9
4.8
5.5
3.2
2.1
5.5
6.2
6.6
9.6
8.6
14.2
22.6
11-92
1.2
1.5
1.6
2.4
2.8
2.9
3.7
4.2
2.0
0.9
3.7
4.0
4.0
5.8
4.1
6.2
6.1
-8.1
12-92
1.8
2.1
2.3
3.1
3.5
3.7
4.5
5.0
3.0
2.2
4.8
5.2
5.4
7.1
6.1
8.1
8.7
2.4
5-91
6-91
7-91
8-91
9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
5-92
6-92
7-92
8-92
113,554
112,567
112,379
112,419
111,859
111,741
114,106
11.9
115,179
113,252
113,375
113,732
113,316
114,437
114,265
114,852
116,817
115,997
14.0
117,274
9-92 10-92 11-92
Retail sales data deflated by CPI-U {1982-84=100).
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
December 13, 1992
11
Inventories Compared With Monthly Sales
Manufacturing and Trade
1986
1987
1988
1989
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Manufacturing and Trade Inventories
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terninal
Month
Initial Month
4-91
5-91
6-91
7-91
8-91
9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91
1-92
2-92
Millions of
Dollars
3-92
4-92
5-92
6-92
7-92
8-92
9-92 10-92
5-91
-6.1
6-91
-5.5
-5.0
7-91
-4.1
-3.1
-1.1
8-91
-3.2
-2.2
-0.7
-0.3
9-91
-1.8
-0.6
0.9
1.9
4.1
10-91
-1.0
0.0
1.3
2.2
3.5
2.8
11-91
-0.9
0.0
1.0
1.6
2.2
1.3
-0.1
12-91
-0.1
0.8
1.8
2.4
3.1
2.8
2.8
5.9
1-92
-0.7
0.0
0.7
1.0
1.3
0.6
-0.1
-0.1
-5.7
2-92
-0.6
0.1
0.7
1.0
1.2
0.6
0.1
0.2
-2.6
0.7
3-92
-0.3
0.3
0.9
1.2
1.4
0.9
0.5
0.7
-1.0
1.5
2.3
4-92
0.0
0.6
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.3
1.0
1.3
0.2
2.2
3.0
3.6
5-92
-0.1
0.5
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.0
0.8
0.9
0.0
1.4
1.7
1.3
-0.9
6-92
0.3
0.9
1.4
1.6
1.8
1.5
1.4
1.6
0.9
2.3
2.7
2.8
2.4
5.7
7-92
0.7
1.2
1.7
1.9
2.1
1.9
1.8
'2.0
1.5
2.7
3.2
3.4
3.3
5.4
5.2
8-92
0.8
1.2
1.7
1.9
2.1
1.9
1.8
2.1
1.6
2.7
3.0
3.2
3.1
4.4
3.7
2.3
9-92
0.6
1.0
1.4
1.6
1.8
1.6
1.5
1.6
1.2
2.1
2.3
2.3
2.0
2.7
1.7
0.1
-2.2
10-92
0.7
1.1
1.5
1.6
1.8
1.6
1.5
1.7
1.2
2.0
2.2
2.2
2.0
2.6
1.8
0.7
-0.1
1.9
11-92
0.7
1.1
1.5
1.7
1.8
1.6
1.5
1.7
1.3
2.0
2.2
2.2
2.0
2.5
1.8
1.0
0.6
2.0
4-91
5-91
6-91
7-91
8-91
9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
5-92
6-92
7-92
8-92
824,177
820,671
819,898
819,684
822,418
824,342
824,239
828,184
824,150
824,609
826,204
828,630
828,032
831,872
835,373
836,972
835,457
836,788
2.0
838,166
9-92 10-92
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Deceaber 16, 1992
12
Gross Dom estic Product
Seasonally Adjusted
Trillions of Dollars
Trillions of Dollars
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
P ercen tage s are annual rates of chan ge for periods indicated.
Gross Domestic Product in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-88
2-88
3-88
4-88
1-89
2-88
4.3
3-88
3.4
2.5
4-88
3.6
3.2
3.9
1-89
3.5
3.2
3.5
3.2
2-89
3.1
2.9
3.0
2.5
1.8
2-89
3-89
4-89
Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91
1-90
Billions of Dollars
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4,704.8
4,734.5
4,779.7
4,817.6
4,839.0
3-89
2.6
2.3
2.2
1.7
0.9
0.0
4-89
2.4
2.1
2.1
1.6
1.1
0.7
1.5
1-90
2.5
2.2
2.2
1.9
1.5
1.4
2.2
4,839.0
4,856.7
2.8
4,890.8
2-90
2.3
2.1
2.0
1.7
1.4
1.3
1.8
1.9
1.0
3-90
1.9
1.7
1.6
1.2
0.9
0.7
0.9
0.7
-0.3
-1.6
4,902.7
4-90
1.4
1.1
0.9
0.6
0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.5
-1.6
-2.8
-3.9
1-91
1.0
0.7
0.5
0.2
-0.2
-0.5
-0.6
-1.0
-1.9
-2.9
-3.5
-3.0
2-91
1.1
0.8
0.6
0.3
0.0
-0.2
-0.3
-0.5
-1.2
-1.7
-1.8
-0.7
1.7
3-91
1.1
0.8
0.7
0.4
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.3
-0.8
-1.2
-1.0
-0.1
1.5
1.2
4-91
1.0
0.8
0.7
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-0.6
-0.9
-0.7
0.1
1.2
0.9
0.6
1-92
1.2
0.9
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
-0.2
-0.3
-0.1
0.7
1.6
1.6
1.7
2.9
2-92
1.2
1.0
0.9
0.7
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.0
-0.1
0.1
0.8
1.6
1.6
1.7
2.2
1.5
3-92
1.3
1.1
1.0
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.3
0.3
0.5
1.2
1.9
1.9
2.1
2.6
2.5
3.4
4-92
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.9
1.5
2.2
2.2
2.4
2.9
2.9
3.6
3.8
1-88
2-88
3-88
4-88
1-89
2-89
3-89
4-89
1-90
2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-SÏ
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4,882.6
4,833.8
4,796.7
4,817.1
4,831.8
4,838.5
4,873.7
4,892.4
4,933.7
4,979.8
Fourth quarter 1992 data are advance estiaates.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Decenber 25, 1992
13
Im plicit Price Deflator for GDP
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent
1986
1987
1988
1989
Percent
1990
1991
1992
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Implicit Price Deflator
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Teroinal
Quarter
Initial Quarter
1-88
2-88
4.4
3-88
4.8
2-88
3-88
4-88
1-89
2-89
3-89
4-89
1-90
2-90
3-90
1987 ■ 100
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
103.2
5.1
104.5
<•-88
4.5
4.5
3.9
1-89
4.7
4.8
4.6
5.4
105.5
106.9
2-89
4.7
4.7
4.6
5.0
4.6
3-89
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.6
4.2
3.8
4-89
4.4
4.4
4.3
4.4
4.0
3.7
3.7
1-90
4.4
4.4
4.3
4.4
4.1
4.0
4.1
4.4
108.1
109.1
110.1
111.3
2-90
4.4
4.5
4.4
4.4
4.2
4.2
4.3
4.6
4.8
3-90
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.5
4.3
4.3
4.4
4.6
4.7
4.7
4-90
4.4
4.4
4.3
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.3
4.5
4.5
4.3
3.9
1-91
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.5
4.4
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.6
4.6
5.3
2-91
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.2
4.4
3.5
3-91
4.3
4.3
4.2
4.2
4.1
4.0
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.0
3.8
3.7
2.9
2.4
4-91
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.1
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.7
3.5
3.4
2.8
2.4
2.4
1-92
4.1
4.1
4.0
4.0
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.4
3.3
2.8
2.6
2.7
3.1
2-92
4.0
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.3
3.2
2.8
2.6
2.7
2.9
2.7
3-92
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.3
3.2
3.0
2.7
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.4
2.0
4-92
3.8
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.0
2.9
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.1
1.8
1.7
1-88
2-88
3-88
4-88
1-89
2-89
3-89
4-89
1-90
2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
112.6
113.9
115.0
116.5
117.5
118.2
118.9
119.8
120.6
121.2
121.7
Fourth quarter 1992 data are advance estimates.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Decenber 25, 1992
14
Final Sales in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter
Initial Quarter
1-88
2-88
3-88
2-88
4.6
3-88
3.2
1.9
4-88
3.5
3.0
4.1
1-89
3.0
2.5
2.8
4-88
1-89
2-89
3-89
4-89
1-90
2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
3-92
1-92
2-92
4,688.7
4,710.9
4,758.7
1.5
4,776.3
2-89
2.9
2.4
2.6
1.8
2.2
3-89
2.7
2.3
2.4
1.8
2.0
1.8
4-89
2.4
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.6
1.2
0.7
1-90
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.5
4.3
2-90
2.2
1.9
1.9
1.6
1.6
1.4
1.3
1.6
-1.1
4,802.0
4,823.0
4,831.8
4,883.3
4,870.0
3-90
2.0
1.7
1.7
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.0
1.1
-0.5
0.1
4-90
1.7
1.5
1.4
1.1
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.6
-0.6
-0.4
-0.9
4,871.4
4,860.6
1-91
1.3
1.0
0.9
0.6
0.5
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-1.3
-1.3
-2.0
-3.2
2-91
1.3
1.0
1.0
0.7
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.1
-0.8
-0.7
-0.9
-1.0
1.3
3-91
1.2
0.9
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.0
-0.7
-0.6
-0.8
-0.8
0.4
-0.5
4-91
1.1
0.9
0.8
0.5
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
-0.6
-0.5
-0.7
-0.6
0.3
-0.3
0.0
1-92
1.3
1.1
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.4
1.3
1.4
2.3
4.7
2-92
1.2
1.0
1.0
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
1.0
1.0
1.5
2.2
-0.1
3-92
1.3
1.1
1.1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.7
1.3
1.3
1.8
2.4
1.3
2.8
4-92
1.5
1.3
1.3
1.1
1.1
1.0
0.9
1.0
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.1
1.8
1.9
2.3
2.9
2.4
3.6
4.5
1-88
2-88
3-88
4-88
1-89
2-89
3-89
4-89
1-90
2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4,821.8
4,837.4
4,831.2
4,830.9
4,886.3
4,884.6
4,918.7
4,972.6
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Decenber 25, 1992
Personal Consumption Expenditures in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-88
2-88
3-88
4-88
1-89
2-89
3-89
4-89
Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91
1-90
2-88
2.5
3-88
2.7
2.9
4-88
3.2
3.5
4.1
1-89
2.4
2.4
2.1
0.1
2-89
2.1
2.0
1.8
0.6
1.1
3-89
2.3
2.2
2.0
1.4
2.0
2.9
4-89
2.1
2.0
1.8
1.2
1.6
1.9
0.8
1-90
2.1
2.0
1.9
1.4
1.7
2.0
1.5
2.2
2-90
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.2
1.4
1.5
1.0
1.1
0.1
3-90
1.8
1.8
1.6
1.3
1.5
1.5
1.2
1.3
0.9
1.7
Billions of Dollars
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
3,147.8
3,170.6
3,202.9
3,203.6
3,212.2
3,235.3
3,242.0
3,259.5
3,260.1
3,273.9
4-90
1.4
1.3
1.1
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.3
0.2
-0.5
-0.7
-3.1
1-91
1.0
0.9
0.7
0.3
0.3
0.2
-0.2
-0.5
-1.1
-1.5
-3.1
-3.0
2-91
1.1
1.0
0.8
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.1
-0.1
-0.5
-0.6
-1.4
-0.5
2.0
3-91
1.1
1.0
0.8
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.2
0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.7
0.1
1.7
1.5
4-91
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.2
0.1
-0.2
-0.2
-0.6
0.0
1.1
0.6
-0.3
1-92
1.3
1.2
1.1
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.3
1.0
2.0
2.1
2.4
5.1
2-92
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.8
1.6
1.5
1.5
2.4
-0.1
3-92
1.3
1.2
1.1
0.9
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.9
0.7
0.8
0.7
1.2
2.0
1.9
2.1
2.9
1.8
3.7
4-92
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.6
2.3
2.3
2.5
3.2
2.6
4.0
4.3
1-88
2-88
3-88
4-88
1-89
2-89
3-89
4-89
1-90
2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
3,248.0
3,223.5
3,239.3
3,251.2
3,249.0
3,289.3
3,288.5
3,318.4
3,353.6
Fourth quarter 1992 data are advance estimates.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Decenber 25, 1992
15
Residential Fixed Investment in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
Initial Quarter
1-88
2-88
3-88
2-88
3.7
3-88
3.2
2.7
4-88
3.2
3.0
3.3
1-89
1.0
0.1
2-89
-1.7
-3.0
3-89
-2.7
4-89
-3.2
4-88
1-89
2-89
3-89
4-89
1-90
2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
3-92
2-92
222.0
223.5
M1
rv>
225.3
-5.4
222.2
-4.8
-8.6 -11.7
215.4
-3.9
-5.5
-8.3
-9.7
-7.6
-4.2
-5.6
-7.7
-8.4
-6.8
-5.9
211.2
208.0
1-90
-2.1
-2.9
-3.9
-5.2
-5.2
-2.9
-0.5
2-90
-3.8
-4.7
-5.7
-7.1
-7.4
-6.3
-5.9
3-90
-5.9
-6.9
-8.0
-9.5 -10.2
4-90
-7.5
-8.6
-9.7 -11.2 -12.0 -12.1 -13.0 -14.7 -20.4 -22.6 -22.4
1-91
-9.3 -10.4 -11.6 -13.1 -14.1 -14.4 -15.5 -17.3 -22.1 -24.1 -24.7 -26.9
5.3
210.7
-5.9 -15.9
201.8
-9.9 -10.5 -11.9 -19.5 -22.9
189.1
177.5
2-91
-8.1
-9.1 -10.1 -11.3 -11.9 -12.0 -12.6 -13.7 -17.0 -17.3 -15.3 -11.6
3-91
-6.7
-7.5
-8.3
-9.2
-9.6
-9.4
-9.6 -10.1 -12.5 -11.8
4-91
-5.6
-6.2
-6.9
-7.7
-7.9
-7.5
-7.5
1-92
-7.7
-9.4
164.1
7.0
166.9
-8.7
-3.7
10.6
14.4
-8.3
-5.0
-0.1
10.9
12.9
11.3
172.6
177.3
-4.2
-4.7
-5.2
-5.8
-5.8
-5.3
-5.0
-4.9
-6.1
-4.7
-1.2
3.6
13.1
15.2
15.6
20.1
2-92
-3.2
-3.7
-4.1
-4.6
-4.5
-3.9
-3.6
-3.3
-4.2
-2.7
0.6
5.1
13.0
14.6
14.6
16.3
12.6
3-92
-3.1
-3.4
-3.8
-4.3
-4.2
-3.6
-3.2
-3.0
-3.8
-2.3
0.6
4.4
10.8
11.5
10.8
10.7
6.2
0.2
4-92
-1.6
-1.9
-2.1
-2.5
-2.3
-1.6
-1.1
-0.7
-1.2
0.4
3.4
7.2
13.2
14.3
14.3
15.0
13.4
13.7
29.1
1-88
2-88
3-88
4-88
1-89
2-89
3-89
4-89
1-90
2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
185.6
191.2
191.3
203.9
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
December 25, 1992
I
Nonresidential Fixed Investment in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Teroinal
Quarter
1-88
2-88
2-88
3-88
4-88
1-89
2-89
3-89
4-89
Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91
1-90
11.0
Billions of Dollars
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
531.4
535.2
3-88
6.9
2.9
4-88
5.5
2.8
2.7
1-89
4.2
2.0
1.6
0.5
2-89
3.8
2.0
1.7
1.3
538.8
539.5
542.2
2.0
541.8
3-89
3.1
1.6
1.2
0.7
0.9
-0.3
4-89
2.1
0.7
0.2
-0.4
-0.7
-2.0
-3.7
1-90
2.6
1.4
1.2
0.9
1.0
0.6
1.1
6.2
2-90
1.5
0.4
0.0
-0.4
-0.6
-1.2
-1.5
-0.4
-6.6
3-90
1.9
1.0
0.7
0.4
0.4
0.1
0.2
1.5
-0.7
5.6
4-90
0.8
-0.2
-0.5
-0.9
-1.1
-1.6
-1.8
-1.4
-3.8
-2.3
1-91
-0.7
-1.7
-2.1
-2.7
-3.1
-3.8
-4.3
-4.5
-6.9
-7.1 -12.8 -15.8
2-91
-0.9
-1.8
-2.2
-2.7
-3.1
-3.7
-4.2
-4.2
-6.2
-6.1
-9.7
-9.7
-3.1
3-91
-1.1
-1.9
-2.3
-2.8
-3.1
-3.6
-4.1
-4.1
-5.7
-5.6
-8.1
-7.6
-3.2
-3.4
4-91
-1.3
-2.2
-2.6
-3.0
-3.3
-3.8
-4.2
-4.2
-5.6
-5.5
-7.6
-7.0
-3.9
-4.3
-5.2
1-92
-1.1
-1.8
-2.2
-2.5
-2.8
-3.2
-3.5
-3.5
-4.6
-4.3
-5.9
-5.1
-2.2
-1.9
-1.2
536.7
544.8
535.6
542.9
529.3
-9.6
507.0
503.0
498.7
492.1
495.8
3.0
514.7
2-92
-0.1
-0.8
-1.0
-1.3
-1.4
-1.7
-1.8
-1.7
-2.5
-2.0
-3.0
-1.8
1.2
2.3
4.3
9.4
16.1
3-92
0.0
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
-1.1
-1.4
-1.4
-1.2
-1.9
-1.4
-2.3
-1.1
1.5
2.5
4.0
7.3
9.5
3.1
4-92
0.5
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.4
-0.6
-0.6
-0.4
-0.9
-0.4
-1.0
0.1
2.7
3.7
5.1
7.9
9.5
6.4
9.7
1-88
2-88
3-88
4-88
1-89
2-89
3-89
4-89
1-90
2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
518.7
530.8
Fourth quarter 1992 data are advance estimates.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
December 25, 1992
16
Exports in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terainal
Quarter
1-88
2-88
3-88
4-88
1-89
2-89
3-89
4-89
Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91
1-90
Billions of Dollars
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
417.2
2-88
10.3
3-88
8.5
6.8
4-88
10.3
10.3
424.1
438.2
14.0
454.5
1-89
11.6
12.1
14.9
15.7
Z-89
12.6
13.1
15.3
16.0
3-89
10.5
10.5
11.5
10.7
8.3
0.8
4-89
10.9
11.0
11.8
11.3
9.9
6.8
13.1
1-90
10.8
10.9
11.6
11.2
10.1
8.0
11.9
10.7
2-90
10.4
10.4
11.0
10.5
9.4
7.8
10.2
8.8
7.0
3-90
9.3
9.2
9.5
8.9
7.8
6.1
7.5
5.7
3.3
-0.2
4-90
9.5
9.4
9.7
9.2
8.3
7.0
8.3
7.2
6.0
5.5
11.6
1-91
8.2
8.0
8.2
7.5
6.5
5.2
6.0
4.6
3.1
1.9
3.0
-5.0
2-91
8.8
8.7
8.9
8.4
7.6
6.6
7.4
6.5
5.7
5.4
7.3
5.2
16.6
3-91
8.6
8.5
8.7
8.2
7.5
6.5
7.3
6.5
5.8
5.5
7.0
5.5
11.3
6.2
4-91
8.9
8.9
9.0
8.6
8.0
7.2
7.9
7.3
6.8
6.8
8.3
7.4
11.9
9.7
13.3
472.0
16.3
472.9
487.7
500.2
508.7
508.4
522.6
515.9
536.1
544.2
561.4
565.4
1-92
8.6
8.4
8.6
8.2
7.5
6.8
7.4
6.8
6.3
6.2
7.3
6.5
9.6
7.4
7.9
2.9
2-92
7.9
7.8
7.9
7.4
6.8
6.1
6.6
5.9
5.4
5.2
6.0
5.1
7.3
5.1
4.7
0.7
-1.4
3-92
8.0
7.9
7.9
7.6
7.0
6.3
6.8
6.2
5.8
5.7
6.4
5.7
7.6
5.9
5.8
3.5
3.7
9.2
4-92
7.8
7.6
7.7
7.3
6.8
6.1
6.6
6.0
5.6
5.5
6.1
5.5
7.0
5.5
5.4
3.5
3.7
6.4
3.7
1-88
2-88
3-88
4-88
1-89
2-89
3-89
4-89
1-90
2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
563.4
575.9
581.2
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Deceaber 25, 1992
Imports in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-88
2-88
3-88
4-88
1-89
2-89
3-89
4-89
Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91
1-90
Billions of Dollars
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
515.2
2-88
-4.0
3-88
2.2
8.7
4-88
5.3
10.2
11.7
1-89
2.7
5.0
3.1
-4.8
2-89
3.3
5.2
4.0
0.4
5.8
3-89
3.8
5.4
4.6
2.4
6.2
6.5
4-89
3.7
5.1
4.4
2.6
5.2
4.9
3.3
1-90
3.6
4.7
4.1
2.6
4.5
4.1
3.0
2.6
2-90
3.8
4.8
4.2
3.0
4.7
4.4
3.7
3.9
5.1
3-90
3.5
4.4
3.9
2.8
4.1
3.8
3.1
3.1
3.3
1.5
4-90
2.4
3.0
2.4
1.3
2.2
1.6
0.7
0.1
-0.8
-3.6
1-91
0.8
1.3
0.6
-0.6
0.0
-0.9
-2.0
-3.1
-4.4
-7.4 -11.6 -14.6
2-91
1.9
2.4
1.9
0.9
1.6
1.1
0.3
-0.2
-0.7
-2.1
-3.3
-0.6
15.6
3-91
2.9
3.5
3.1
2.3
3.0
2.7
2.3
2.1
2.0
1.4
1.4
5.0
16.4
17.1
4-91
3.0
3.5
3.1
2.5
3.1
2.9
2.5
2.4
2.4
1.9
2.0
4.8
12.2
10.5
4.2
1-92
3.0
3.5
3.2
2.5
3.2
2.9
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.1
2.2
4.5
9.9
8.1
3.9
3.5
2-92
3.7
4.2
3.9
3.4
4.0
3.9
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.6
3.9
6.1
10.9
9.7
7.4
9.0
3-92
4.3
4.8
4.6
4.1
4.8
4.7
4.5
4.6
4.8
4.8
5.2
7.3
11.5
10.7
9.2
10.9
14.8
14.8
4-92
4.3
4.8
4.6
4.1
4.7
4.7
4.5
4.6
4.8
4.8
5.2
7.0
10.5
9.7
8-3
9.3
11.3
9.6
4.7
1-88
2-88
3-88
4-88
1-89
2-89
3-89
4-89
1-90
2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
526.1
540.9
534.3
541.9
550.5
555.0
558.6
565.6
567.7
555.3
-8.5
533.8
553.5
575.8
581.8
586.8
14.7
607.3
628.6
635.8
Fourth quarter 1992 data are advance estimates.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Deceaber 25, 1992
17
Government Purchases of Goods and Services in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terainal
Quarter
Initial Quarter
1-88
2-88
3-88
4-88
1-89
2-89
3-89
4-89
1-90
2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
2-88
0.9
3-88
0.0
-0.9
<♦-88
1.6
2.0
5.0
1-89
0.8
0.8
1.6
-1.6
2-89
1.7
1.9
2.8
1.8
5.3
3-89
2.1
2.4
3.2
2.6
4.9
4.5
4-89
1.9
2.0
2.6
2.0
3.3
2.3
0.2
1-90
2.4
2.6
3.2
2.9
4.0
3.6
3.2
6.4
2-90
2.3
2.4
2.9
2.6
3.5
3.0
2.5
3.7
1.1
3-90
1.8
1.9
2.3
1.9
2.5
2.0
1.4
1.8
-0.4
-2.0
4-90
2.2
2.3
2.7
2.4
3.0
2.7
2.3
2.8
1.7
2.0
6.1
1-91
2.3
2.4
2.7
2.5
3.0
2.7
2.4
2.8
2.0
2.3
4.4
2.8
2-91
2.1
2.2
2.5
2.2
2.7
2.4
2.1
2.4
1.6
1.7
3.0
1.5
0.2
3-91
1.8
1.9
2.1
1.8
2.2
1.8
1.5
1.7
1.0
0.9
1.7
0.2
-1.0
-2.3
1.7
1.4
1.0
1.1
0.4
0.3
0.7
-0.6
-1.7
-2.6
-3.0
4-91
1-92
Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
3-92
2-92
885.6
883.7
894.5
890.8
902.3
912.2
912.6
926.8
929.4
924.8
938.5
945.1
945.6
940.2
4-91
1.5
1.5
1.7
1.4
1-92
1.5
1.5
1.7
1.4
1.7
1.4
1.1
1.2
0.5
0.5
0.9
-0.1
-0.9
-1.2
-0.7
1.7
2-92
1.3
1.3
1.5
1.2
1.5
1.2
0.9
0.9
0.4
0.3
0.6
-0.3
-0.9
-1.2
-0.8
0.2
-1.2
3-92
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.4
1.6
1.4
1.1
1.2
0.7
0.6
1.0
0.3
-0.1
-0.2
0.3
1.4
1.3
3.8
4-92
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.2
1.4
1.1
0.9
1.0
0.5
0.4
0.7
0.0
-0.4
-0.5
-0.1
0.6
0.3
1.0
-1.7
1-88
2-88
3-88
4-88
1-89
2-89
3-89
4-89
1-90
2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
933.1
937.0
934.2
943.0
938.9
Fourth quarter 1992 data are advance estisates.
•
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Deceaber 25, 1992
Corporate Profits
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-87
1-88
10.7
2-88
12.5
1-88
2-88
3-88
4-88
1-89
2-89
3-89
Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90
4-89
Billions of Dollars
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
352.1
14.5
364.2
3-88
8.6
7.6
1.2
4-88
10.2
10.0
7.9
15.0
1-89
6.0
4.9
1.9
2.3
-9.1
2-89
5.1
4.0
1.6
1.7
-4.4
3-89
2.3
1.0
-1.5
-2.2
-7.3
-6.4 -12.9
4-89
1.6
0.4
-1.8
-2.4
-6.3
-5.3
-8.2
-3.1
1-90
3.1
2.2
0.5
0.4
-2.3
-0.5
-0.8
5.8
15.6
2-90
4.6
3.9
2.7
2.9
1.0
3.1
3.8
10.1
17.3
19.1
3-90
0.9
-0.1
-1.6
-1.9
-4.1
-3.3
-4.0
-1.7
-1.2
-8.6 -29.9
4-90
0.1
-0.8
-2.3
-2.6
-4.6
-4.0
-4.7
-3.0
-3.0
-8.5 -19.7
-8.2
1-91
0.6
-0.2
-1.5
-1.7
-3.4
-2.7
-3.2
-1.4
-1.1
-4.9 -11.8
-1.0
6.7
2-91
0.3
-0.4
-1.6
-1.8
-3.4
-2.7
-3.1
-1.6
-1.4
-4.4
-9.6
-1.6
1.9
-2.6
3-91
-0.2
-0.9
-2.0
-2.2
-3.7
-3.1
-3.5
-2.3
-2.2
-4.8
-9.0
-2.9
-1.1
-4.7
-6.8
4-91
0.3
-0.4
-1.4
-1.6
-2.8
-2.2
-2.5
-1.3
-1.0
-3.2
-6.5
-1.0
0.9
-1.0
-0.1
7.1
1-92
2.7
2.2
1.4
1.4
0.5
1.3
1.4
2.9
3.6
2.2
0.0
6.1
9.2
9.8
14.3
26.7
49.8
2-92
2.8
2.3
1.6
1.6
0.8
1.6
1.6
3.1
3.7
2.5
0.6
5.9
8.4
8.8
11.8
18.9
25.2
3-92
1.8
1.4
0.6
0.6
-0.3
0.4
0.3
1.5
2.0
0.7
-1.2
3.2
4.9
4.6
6.1
9.6
10.5
-5.1 -13.9
4-87
1-88
2-88
3-88
4-88
1-89
2-89
3-89
4-89
1-90
2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
365.3
378.3
369.4
369.9
0.5
357.3
354.5
367.6
384.0
351.4
344.0
349.6
347.3
341.2
347.1
384.0
388.4
4.7
374.1
2-92
Corporate profits with capital consunption and inventory valuation adjustaents. Third quarter data are final estimates.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Deceaber 25, 1992
18
Gross Saving as a P ercent of GDP
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent
Percent
Total saving equals private saving (personal saving plus business saving) plus governm ent surplus or deficit.
Prepared by Federal R eserve Bank of S t. Louis
Gross Private Saving
(Compounded Annua] Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-87
1-88
1-88
8.8
2-88
3.4
-1.7
3-88
2.3
-0.8
2-88
3-88
4-88
1-89
2-89
3-89
Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90
4-89
Billions of Dollars
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1 -9 2
2-92
800.4
797.0
0.0
797.0
4-88
4.0
2.4
4.5
9.2
1-89
4.4
3.3
5.0
7.6
6.0
2-89
2.3
1.1
1.8
2.3
-0.9
-7.4
3-89
2.0
0.9
1.4
1.8
-0.6
-3.7
0.1
4-89
2.8
2.0
2.6
3.2
1.7
0.3
4.4
8.9
1-90
4.0
3.5
4.2
4.9
4.1
3.7
7.6
11.6
814.8
826.7
811.0
811.2
828.6
14.4
856.9
2-90
4.7
4.3
5.0
5.8
5.2
5.1
8.4
11.4
12.7
11.0
879.5
3-90
1.7
1.0
1.3
1.5
0.4
-0.5
1.0
1.2
-1.2
-8.2 -24.1
820.9
4-90
3.1
2.6
3.1
3.4
2.7
2.2
3.9
4.7
3.7
0.4
-4.5
20.1
1-91
4.0
3.6
4.1
4.5
4.0
3.7
5.4
6.3
5.8
3.8
1.5
17.4
14.8
2-91
3.9
3.6
4.0
4.4
3.9
3.7
5.2
5.9
5.4
3.7
2.0
12.5
8.9
3.4
3-91
3.3
2.9
3.3
3.5
3.0
2.8
4.0
4.4
3.8
2.2
0.5
7.8
4.0
-1.0
-5.2
4-91
4.5
4.2
4.7
5.0
4.7
4.6
5.8
6.5
6.2
5.1
4.1
11.0
8.8
6.9
8.6
24.5
1-92
4.6
4.4
4.8
5.1
4.8
4.7
5.9
6.5
6.3
5.3
4.5
10.2
8.4
6.8
8.0
15.3
6.7
2-92
4.8
4.6
5.0
5.3
5.0
5.0
6.1
6.6
6.4
5.6
4.9
9.9
8.3
7.0
7.9
12.7
7.3
7.8
3-92
5.1
4.9
5.3
5.6
5.4
5.3
6.4
6.9
6.8
6.0
5.5
9.9
8.6
7.6
8.4
12.1
8.3
9.0
10.3
4-87
1-88
2-88
3-88
4-88
1-89
2-89
3-89
4-89
1-90
2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
859.3
889.4
896.9
884.9
934.8
950.1
968.1
992.1
Third quarter 1992 data are final estivates.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
December 25, 1992
19
B usiness Productivity and Com pensation
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted
1986
1987
1988
1989
Percent
1990
1991
1992
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Business Sector Output per Hour
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terainal
Quarter
Initial Quarter
4-87
1-88
2-88
3-88
4-88
1-89
2-89
3-89
4-89
1-90
2-90
1982 = 100
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
110.6
1-88
1.1
2-88
-0.4
-1.8
3-88
0.2
-0.2
4-88
0.2
-0.1
0.7
0.0
1-89
-0.4
-0.8
-0.5
-1.4
-2.9
2-89
-0.4
-0.7
-0.4
-1.0
-1.4
0.0
3-89
-0.6
-0.8
-0.7
-1.2
-1.6
-0.9
-1.8
4-89
-0.5
-0.7
-0.5
-0.9
-1.1
-0.5
-0.7
0.4
1-90
-0.4
-0.5
-0.4
-0.7
-0.8
-0.3
-0.4
0.4
0.4
2-90
0.0
-0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.2
0.4
0.5
1.2
1.7
3.0
3-90
-0.2
-0.3
-0.1
-0.3
-0.4
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.6
0.7
-1.4
4-90
-0.2
-0.3
-0.1
-0.3
-0.4
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.4
0.4
-0.9
-0.4
1-91
-0.3
-0.4
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
-0.2
-0.2
0.1
0.0
-0.1
-1.1
-0.9
-1.5
2-91
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.3
-0.4
0.0
0.2
1.8
3-91
0.0
-0.1
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.1
0.5
0.7
1.8
1.8
4-91
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.5
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.6
1.0
1.4
2.3
2.6
3.3
1-92
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.8
0.9
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.1
1.5
1.9
2.7
3.0
3.7
4.0
2-92
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.8
0.8
1.1
1^2
“1.2
1.0
1.4
1.7
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.4
0.7
3-92
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
1.0
1.1
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.3
1.7
2.0
2.5
2.7
2.9
2.8
2.1
3.6
4-87
1-88
2-88
3-88
4-88
1-89
2-89
3-89
4-89
1-90
2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
110.1
110.5
1.5
110.5
109.7
109.7
109.2
109.3
109.4
110.2
109.8
109.7
109.3
109.8
110.3
111.2
112.3
112.5
113.5
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Decenber S, 1992
20
N e t
F e d e r a l
D e b t
(Compounded Annua] Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter
Initial Quarter
4-87
1-88
2 -8 8
3-88
4-88
1-89
2-89
3-89
4-89
1-9 0
2 -9 0
3-90
1-8 8
9.4
2-8 8
8.1
3-88
8.2
7.6
8.3
4-88
7.3
6 .6
6.4
4 .6
1 -8 9
7 .3
6 .7
6 .7
5 .9
7 .2
2-8 9
7.0
6.6
6.5
5.9
6 .5
5 .9
3-89
7.1
6.7
6.7
6.3
6.8
6 .6
4-89
7.2
6.9
6.9
6.7
7 .2
7 .2
7 .9
8 .3
1-9 0
8.1
7.9
8.1
8.0
8 .7
9.1
10.2
11.6
15.0
2-9 0
8.5
8.4
8.6
8.6
9 .3
9.7
10.7
11.8
13.5
12.0
3-90
8.8
8.7
8.9
9.0
9.6
10.0
10.9
11.8
12.9
11.9
11.7
4-90
9.1
9.1
9.3
9.4
10.0
10.5
11.2
12.0
13.0
12.3
12.4
13.1
1-9 1
9.1
9.1
9 .3
9.4
10.0
10.3
10.9
11.6
12.2
11.5
11.3
11.1
4 -9 0
1-9 1
Billions of
Dollars
2-9 1
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
1 ,9 8 8 .4
6.8
2 ,0 2 1 .6
2 ,0 6 2 .4
2 ,0 8 5 .7
2,1 2 2 .1
2 ,1 5 2 .7
7.4
2 ,1 9 1 .4
2 ,2 3 5 .7
2 ,3 1 5 .4
2 ,3 8 2 .2
2,4 4 9 .1
2 ,5 2 5 .8
2,5 8 2 .0
9 .2
2-9 1
9.4
9.4
9 .6
9.7
10.2
10.5
11.1
11.7
12.3
11.7
11.6
11.6
10.8
12.5
3 -9 1
9.8
9.8
10.0
10.2
10.7
11.1
11.6
12.2
12.8
12.4
12.4
12.6
12.5
14.1
4-91
9.8
9.8
10.0
10.1
10.6
10.9
11.4
11.9
12.3
11.9
11.9
12.0
11.7
12.5
12.5
9.4
1-92
9.8
9.9
10.1
10.2
10.6
10.9
11.4
11.8
12.2
11.9
11.8
11.9
11.6
12.2
12.1
10.3
11.3
2-9 2
10.1
10.1
10.3
10.5
10.9
11.2
11.6
12.0
12.4
12.1
12.1
12.2
12.0
12.6
12.6
11.6
12.7
14.2
3-92
10.0
10.1
10.3
10.4
10.8
11.1
11.5
11.8
12.1
11.9
11.8
11.8
11.7
12.1
12.0
11.1
11.6
11.8
9.5
4-87
1-88
2 -8 8
3-88
4-88
1-89
2-89
3-89
4-89
1- 90
2 -9 0
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
2 ,6 5 8 .9
15.8
2 ,7 5 8 .3
2 ,8 2 0 .8
2 ,8 9 7 .3
2 ,9 9 4 .8
3 ,0 6 3 .6
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
December 21, 1992
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT
(billions of dollars)
Seasonally Adjusted End of Month Totals
Gross
federal debt
Federal debt held
by agencies
and trusts
Net
federal debt
Federal debt held
by Federal
Reserve Banks
Federal debt held
by private
investors
Federal debt
by foreign
investors
1988 March
June
September
December
2487.5
2548.8
2614.3
2672.8
498.9
528.3
552.1
584.8
1988.4
2021.6
2062.4
2085.7
220.8
227.1
232.7
231.6
1765.2
1796.9
1830.8
1853.8
330.9
343.5
348.6
362.7
1989 March
June
September
December
2738.1
2801.9
2870.1
2942.1
617.3
650.3
678.7
702.9
2122.1
2152.7
2191.4
2235.7
232.5
231.2
224.4
221.1
1887.1
1921.0
1967.8
2011.0
374.8
367.7
398.8
391.7
1990 March
June
September
December
3046.9
3146.8
3247.7
3353.0
734.0
766.2
798.4
822.3
2315.4
2382.2
2449.1
2525.8
223.5
230.7
236.8
250.9
2096.6
2156.0
2217.6
2282.6
383.3
390.0
407.8
418.9
1991 March
June
September
December
3458.3
3542.0
3681.5
3788.4
880.3
884.9
922.9
961.4
2582.0
2658.9
2758.3
2820.8
252.3
254.4
269.8
271.7
2339.8
2414.6
2500.6
2556.6
426.3
437.3
445.0
451.4
1992 March
June
September
3873.6
3988.7
4080.9
978.4
995.9
1020.4
2897.3
2994.8
3063.6
273.1
276.3
302.1
2640.2
2731.5
2776.6
469.8
493.9
503.5
Columns may not add because each component is seasonally adjusted separately. Gross federal debt equals debt held by agencies and trusts plus net federal debt.
Net federal debt equals debt held by Federal Reserve banks plus debt held by private investors (which includes debt held by foreign investors). Sources: Original
data may be found in the Treasury Bulletin and also in the Federal Reserve Bulletin; seasonally adjusted series prepared by this Bank.
21
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGETS
(billions of dollars, quarterly totals seasonally adjusted at annual rates)
Receipts
Quarters
National
income accounts
budget
Surplus or d e fic it(-)
Expenditures
National
Cyclically
income accounts
adjusted
budget
budget
Cyclically
adjusted
budget
National
income accounts
budget
Cyclically
adjusted
budget
1985 1
2
3
4
797.8
758.6
794.3
803.6
819.3
780.7
811.8
822.0
947.7
964.9
976.3
990.8
953.0
964.4
991.3
1012.6
-1 4 9 .9
-2 0 6 .3
-1 8 2 .0
-1 8 7 .2
-1 3 3 .7
-1 8 3 .7
-1 7 9 .5
-1 9 0 .6
1986 1
2
3
4
809.4
814.2
828.2
856.8
816.4
832.2
852.1
875.5
992.7
1038.0
1047.9
1034.3
1001.4
1045.2
1032.4
1038.7
-1 8 3 .3
-2 2 3 .8
-2 1 9 .7
-1 7 7 .5
-1 8 5 .0
-2 1 3 .0
-1 8 0 .3
-1 6 3 .2
1987 1
2
3
4
858.4
928.6
924.5
943.5
875.1
938.1
927.2
930.0
1048.1
1058.9
1059.0
1096.3
1057.4
1060.4
1065.6
1103.0
-1 8 9 .7
-1 3 0 .3
-1 3 4 .5
-1 5 2 .7
-1 8 2 .3
-1 2 2 .3
-1 3 8 .4
-1 7 3 .0
1988 1
2
3
4
940.5
970.4
977.8
1000.6
924.9
949.5
953.0
971.4
1098.0
1105.0
1097.3
1135.5
1098.0
1111.4
1098.2
1156.1
-1 5 7 .5
-1 3 4 .6
-1 1 9 .5
-1 3 4 .9
-173.1
-1 6 1 .9
-1 4 5 .2
-1 8 4 .7
1989 1
2
3
4
1050.9
1064.5
1053.6
1068.3
1014.3
1032.2
1020.2
1035.4
1160.8
1174.2
1181.5
1209.8
1181.0
1187.3
1182.0
1208.2
-1 1 0 .0
-1 0 9 .7
-1 2 8 .0
-1 4 1 .5
-1 6 6 .7
-155.1
-1 6 1 .8
-1 7 2 .8
1990 1
2
3
4
1086.7
1109.6
1119.9
1113.3
1061.7
1093.4
1116.0
1132.1
1254.5
1266.5
1265.5
1307.9
1252.2
1275.4
1273.6
1311.2
-1 6 7 .8
-1 5 6 .9
-1 4 5 .6
-1 9 4 .6
-1 9 0 .5
-1 8 2 .0
-1 5 7 .6
-179.1
1991 1
2
3
4
1114.6
1117.3
1127.7
1129.4
1160.1
1173.7
N.A.
N.A.
1264.4
1329.4
1348.7
1388.1
1257.9
1319.3
N.A.
N.A.
-1 4 9 .9
-2 1 2 .2
-2 2 1 .0
-2 5 8 .7
- 97.8
-1 4 5 .6
N.A.
N.A.
1992 1
2
3
4
1143.3
1149.8
1155.4
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
1432.5
1452.7
1459.8
1475.9
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
-2 8 9 .2
-3 0 2 .9
-3 0 4 .4
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A. — Not Available
Fiscal years
Estimates
Actual
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
Total budget
Receipts
Outlays
Surplus or deficit ( - )
$
734.1 $
946.4
769.1 $ 854.1 $ 909.0 $ 990.7 $ 1031.3 $ 1054.3 $ 1091.6
1252.7
1323.8
1381.8
990.3
1003.9
1064.1
1143.2
$ - 212.3 $ -2 2 1 .2 $ -1 4 9 .8 $ -1 5 5 .2 $ -1 5 2 .5 $ -2 2 1 .4 $ -2 6 9 .5 $ -2 9 0 .2
$ 1147.6 $ 1230.3
1474.9
1522.7
$ -3 2 7 .3
$ -2 9 2 .4
Calendar years
National income accounts
budget
Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or deficit( - )
$
788.6 $ 827.2 $ 913.8 $ 972.3 $ 1059.3 $ 1107.4 $ 1122.2 $ 1160.0
969.9
1455.2
1028.2
1065.6
1109.0
1181.6
1273.6
1332.7
$ -1 8 1 .4 $ -2 0 1 .0 $ -15 1.8 $ -1 3 6 .6 $ -1 2 2 .3 $ -1 6 6 .2 $ -2 1 0 .4 $ -2 9 5 .3
Cyclically adjusted budget
Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or deficit( - )
$ 808.5 $ 844.1 $ 917.6 $ 949.7 $ 1025.5 $ 1100.8
980.3
1029.4
1071.6
1115.9
1189.6
1278.1
$ - 171.9 $ -1 8 5 .4 $ -1 5 4 .0 $ -1 6 6 .2 $ -1 6 4 .1
$ -1 7 7 .3
4
Fiscal years refer to the budget year which runs from October 1 through September 30.
Total budget outlays include federal entities that are off-budget.
Estimates from O M B’s Budget Baselines, Historical Data, and Alternatives for the Future (January 6, 1993).
Cyclically adjusted budget data are in process of revision.
Totals may not add due to rounding.
Source: Office of Management and Budget and U.S. Department of Commerce.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
22
Government Deficit( - ) / Surplus(+)
Seasonally Adjusted
Billions of Dollars
Billions of Dollars
National income accoun ts basis
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Federal Defense Expenditures
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terninal
Quarter
1-88
2-88
3-88
4-88
1-89
2-89
3-89
4-89
Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91
1-90
Billions of Dollars
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
294.8
2-88
-2.5
3-88
-1.8
-1.1
4-88
0.0
1.4
3.9
1-89
-1.1
-0.6
-0.3
294.0
296.8
-4.4
293.5
2-89
0.4
1.2
1.9
0.9
6.6
3-89
1.9
2.8
3.8
3.8
8.2
298.2
305.3
9.9
302.5
4-89
1.1
1.7
2.3
1.9
4.1
2.9
-3.6
1-90
2.5
3.2
4.0
4.0
6.2
6.0
4.2
12.6
2-90
2.4
3.0
3.6
3.6
5.3
4.9
3.3
7.0
1.7
3-90
1.6
2.0
2.4
2.2
3.4
2.7
1.0
2.6
-2.0
-5.6
4-90
3.2
3.7
4.3
4.4
5.7
5.5
4.7
6.8
5.0
6.7
20.6
1-91
3.9
4.5
5.0
5.2
6.4
6.4
5.8
7.8
6.7
8.4
16.2
11.9
2-91
2.9
3.4
3.8
3.8
4.8
4.5
3.8
5.1
3.7
4.2
7.6
1.7
-7.6
311.6
312.9
308.4
323.2
332.4
325.9
3-91
2.4
2.7
3.1
3.0
3.8
3.5
2.7
3.6
2.2
2.3
4.4
-0.5
-6.2
-4.8
4-91
1.6
1.9
2.1
2.0
2.6
2.2
1.4
2.0
0.6
0.4
1.6
-2.6
-7.0
-6.8
-8.7
321.9
1-92
1.4
1.7
1.9
1.7
2.2
1.8
1.1
1.6
0.3
0.1
1.1
-2.4
-5.7
-5.0
-5.1
-1.4
314.7
313.6
2-92
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.4
1.9
1.5
0.8
1.2
0.0
-0.2
0.6
-2.4
-5.0
-4.4
-4.2
-1.9
-2.4
3-92
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.0
2.5
2.2
1.5
2.0
1.0
0.9
1.8
-0.6
-2.6
-1.5
-0.7
2.1
3.9
10.5
4-92
1.4
1.6
1.8
1.7
2.1
1.8
1.2
1.6
0.6
0.5
1.2
-0.9
-2.7
-1.8
-1.2
0.8
1.5
3.5
-3.1
1-88
2-88
3-88
4-88
1-89
2-89
3-89
4-89
1-90
2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-9Ì
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
311.7
319.6
317.1
Fourth quarter data are advance estimates.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
December 25, 1992
23
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Post Office Box 442
St. Louis, Missouri 63166
Su bscriber:
Please include address label with
subscription inquiries or address changes.
Federal Nondefense Expenditures
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terainal
Quarter
Initial Quarter
1-88
2-88
3-88
4-88
1-89
2-89
3-89
4-89
1-90
2-90
3-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
3-92
2-92
810.2
2-88
4.5
3-88
0.5
-3.4
4-88
6.3
7.2
18.8
1-89
8.2
9.5
16.6
14.4
2-89
7.4
8.1
12.2
9.1
4.1
3-89
6.1
6.5
9.1
6.0
2.1
0.1
4-89
7.4
7.8
10.2
8.2
6.2
7.3
15.0
1-90
8.5
9.1
11.3
9.8
8.7
10.3
15.8
16.6
2-90
8.0
8.5
10.3
8.9
7.9
8.9
11.9
10.5
4.6
3-90
7.4
7.7
9.2
7.8
6.8
7.3
9.2
7.4
3.0
1.5
4-90
7.8
8.1
9.5
8.4
7.5
8.1
9.8
8.5
6.0
6.6
1-91
5.2
5.2
6.1
4.8
3.7
3.6
4.2
2.2
-1.2
-3.0
2-91
7.2
7.4
8.4
7.4
6.7
7.0
8.1
6.9
5.1
5.2
6.5
3-91
7.3
7.6
8.5
7.6
7.0
7.3
8.3
7.3
5.8
6.1
4-91
8.1
8.4
9.3
8.6
8.1
8.5
9.4
8.8
7.7
8.2
1-92
8.7
9.0
9.9
9.3
8.9
9.3
10.3
9.8
8.9
2-92
8.7
8.9
9.8
9.2
8.8
9.2
10.1
9.6
3-92
8.2
8.4
9.2
8.5
8.1
8.4
9.2
8.7
4-92
4-90
803.3
838.7
867.3
876.0
876.2
907.3
942.9
953.6
957.1
984.7
12.0
932.0
-5.2 -19.7
1,003.5
3.9
34.4
7.3
5.7
21.4
9.6
9.6
9.0
20.7
14.4
19.4
9.6
11.0
10.8
20.1
15.6
18.7
18.1
8.8
9.4
10.6
10.3
17.6
13.7
15.1
13.0
8.1
7.9
8.3
9.1
8.7
14.4
10.8
11.0
8.4
3.8
1,026.8
1,073.4
1,118.9
1,141.0
1,140.2
-0.3
8.1
8.3
9.0
8.4
8.0
8.3
9.0
8.5
7.8
8.1
8.9
8.5
13.3
10.1
10.2
8.0
4.8
3.1
6.7
1-88
2-88
3-88
4-88
1-89
2-89
3-89
4-89
1-90
2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
1,158.8
Fourth quarter data are advance estinates.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
December 25, 1992
24
@FedFRASER