Full text of National Economic Trends : February 1981
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n n n o n m Economic t reod s P R E P A R E D Month ending: B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K January 31, 1981 O F ST. L O U I S Released: February 27, 1981 Nominal GNP has grown aclr a r e la t iv e ly rapid 9.8 percent annual rate since mid-1979, y e t federal government expenditures have expanded even fa s te r. Federal expefitfltures increased from 20.8 percent of GNP in mid-1979 to 23.4 percent in IV/1980, accelerating an upward trend that began in 1965. State and local spending, on the other hand, has risen a t about the same rate as GNP since 1973, a fte r increasing more ra p id ly from 1965 to 1973. Federal spending has accelerated sharply since mid-1979, increasing a t an 18.8 percent annual ra te . By comparison, such spending rose at an 11.6 percent rate in the previous six years and a t a 9.9 percent average rate from 1965 to 1973. The most recent acceleratio n re fle c ts sharp increases in both defense and nondefense spending. The e ffe c t of federal spending ris in g fa ste r than GNP has been an increase in the federal d e fic it from an $8.1 b illio n annual rate in 11/1979 to an estimated $61.9 b illio n rate in IV/1980. Trends in state and local government spending co ntrast with those for the federal sector. Since mid-1979, expenditures by state and local governments have grown at a 9.3 percent ra te , compared with a 10.2 percent rate from 1973-79 and an 11.7 percent average rate over the 1965-73 period. R e la tiv e ly moderate growth of state and local government spending has resulted in a rate of surplus averaging $27.6 b illio n over the past six quarters. This compares with a $13.4 b illio n rate of surplus in 1973 and balance in 1965. TRENDS IN GOVERNMENT SPENDING (compounded annual rates of change) 1965 to 1973 11/1979 to IV/1980 1973 to 1979 18.8% 19.7 18.5 11.6* 7.3 13.0 9.9% 5.0 12.5 State and local expenditures 9.3 10.2 11.7 GNP 9.8 10.5 8.5 Federal expenditures National defense Nondefense S ta rtin g with th is issue, CPI-U, the consumer price index for a ll urban consumers, w ill be published instead of CPI-W, the consumer price index for urban wage earners and c le r ic a l workers. CPI-U re fle c ts a broader sample of consumers than does CPI-W. TOTAL CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S Of C H A N G E THOUSANDS Of PfcftSONS INITIAL MONTH TERMINAL MONTH 6 — 79 7—79 8-79 9 - 7 9 10-79 1 1 -79 12-79 1-80 2-80 3-CO 4-80 5-60 6-60 7-80 8-80 9-60 10-80 11-80 12-80 5 »6 1 ,3 _g.n77- 9 7 ,2 7 7 9 7 ,0 4 8 -2 *8 97,521 9-79 _2jl2____ _______ * t Q 10-79 i * ? ____ 0 , 6 ____ 2 , 4 - U X 11-79 1 * 7 _____ 0 * 7 _____ | t 9 -0 . 1 _2,Q 1 2 - 7^_l-80 2-80 3-w »8 9 7 ,5 0 1 97»7n_ _ U 2 ____ ________ i±i____ h i ____ 1 * 5 ____ 0 ^ 9 ____ U 6 0*6 1 4 I »3 -0.9 9 7 ,7 0 8 1 ,5 1 ,6 0» 7 1*2 1 *3 0*2 9 7 ,8 1 7 ____1,0 0,2 0,5 0. 4 -0,6 0 ,3 - 0 ,5 - 0 ,4 - 0 ,7 0 , 3 ___~ Q , 2____ 0 4 ___- 0 , 6 -0,6 -0» - 1 ,3 - 2 ,0 1 *0 ■ 0 ,5 6- e O 9 7 ,4 3 4 0 - 0 ,1 -0 *1 -0,5 ^2,3 - 1 ,7 - 2 ,0 - 3 ,6 -1,6 -1, - 2 ,8 - 2 .3 - 3 * 1 ___ r ? * 4 ___ - 2 , 7 ___ - 4 , j _ 9 7 ,6 2 8 9 7 ,2 2 5 9 7 ,1 1 6 - 3 ,1 - 0 ,6 - 0 ,3 - 1 .0 - 1 ,0 l r80_____0,2 -Q,3 -Qtl -0*6 -0,6__ -0.8„_-i. -1 *4 - 2 ,0 - 1 ,9 -0 *9 -0 *7 0 .1 - 0 ,3 -0 *0 - 0 ,6 - 0 ,5 - 1 ,2 - 1 ,7 - 1 ,5 -0 *7 -0 *5 ft - 8 0 - 0 ,7 - 1 ,2 9 7 ,0 0 3 - Q , j _____ __________ L t Z _____ L î J _____ £ t 2_ 9 7 ,1?Q 9~80 0 *3 -0 .1 0 ,1 - 0 ,3 - 0 ,3 -0, * - 0 ,8 - 0,8 - 0*3 -0 *1 0 ,1 -0 *3 - 0 ,2 -0 *3 -0 *7 -0 *7 -0 *9 - 0 ,7 - 0 ,0 11-80 0 *4 0 *0 0 *2 -0 *2 -0 *1 -0 *2 -0 *5 - 0 ,5 - 0 ,7 -0 *4 0*2 - O f? 0 *0 0 ,2 - 0 ,2 -0 *1 -0 *2 -0 *5 - 0 ,5 - 0 ,7 - 0 ,5 0,2 -0*1 -0*0 11-79 12-79 1-00 1-8 1 6- 7 9 7-7 9 8- 7 9 9-7 9 10-79 9 6 ,9 9 9 1 ,4 10-80 U-8V 1 , 1 ____- 0 , 9 9 6 ,7 8 0 0.1 0,2 1 .3 0 ,9 9 7 ,2 0 6 1 .3 1 . 0 ____ 1 , 7 1*1 _ 0 * 1 ____ IjtO____ £ * 7 ____ 0_*9_ 0 ,4 0 ,5 9 7 ,3 3 9 9 7 ,28 g . - 0 .7 9 7 ,6 9 6 1 ,7 2-80 3-80 4-80 5-8 0 6-80 7-8 0 -80 9-60 10-80 11-80 12-80 IN IT IA L MONTH PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE THOUSANOS Of PERSONS IN IT IA L MONTH T ^ mjnal MONTH 6-79 7-7 9 8- 7 9 9-7 9 10-79 11-79 12-79 1-8 0 2-80 3-80 4-60 5-6 0 6-80 7-8 0 8-80 9-60 10-80 11-80 12-60 90,054 _ - 2 t Q_ „ _ 2 ,1 9-79 _ 9 0 ,2 2 2 2 ,3 1 ,7____ Lt_2____ ____________ 9 0 ,2 8 3 1,8 9 0 ,4 4 1 1 . 7 ____ L l ?____ 2. 1 _ L J ____ L J ____ 1 , 5 ____ 1 . 6 ____ 1 ,5 11-79 12-7 V 1 .7 1 , 7 _____ 1 , 5 1 ,8 2,1 2,2___ 2,2____2,5 2,1 2.2 2,1____2. 4 _ U £ _____ U S _____ __________ 1 , 9 _____ 1 * 3 _____ 1 , 2 4-80 5-8^ 0 ,4 0 ,7 0 , 2 ___- 0 , 0 ___:d•0,2 7 - 8 0 _____ - 0 , 0 ______0 , 2 . 0 *4 1Q-8Q_ J- B l 0 .3 2,5 3 ,4 9 1 .1 6 6 2 ,1 *6 - 1 , 9 _____ ¿ i O _____ __________ 0 , 7 -Q 1 , 1 ______1 * 1 _____ 0_*9___ - 0 , 4 - 1 , 5 ___ - 2 , 5 0 , 1 ____- 0 , 2 ___ - 0 ,6 ___ - 1 , 8 - 3 , 1 ____- 4 , 4 ___ - 6 * 2 _ 90 .4 6 8 - 0 ,7 - l,Q - 1 ,4 -2*6 - 3 ,7 __ -4,7 -5,8 -5,4 -1 *1 - 1 ,5 -2 *5 -3 *4 -4 *1 - 4 *7 -3 *9 - 2 *4 -0 *6 -0 *8 0*1 - 0 ,1 - 0 ,2 - 0 , 4 ___ —Q , 0 ,3 0 ,2 0 ,1 6 - 0 , 1 ___ - 0 , 2 9 0 ,0 4 7 8 9 ,8 6 7 -¿,6 - 1 ,4 0 ,6 3 ,7 5 ____- 1 , 7 - 1 ,5 - 0 ,3 1 ,5 3 ,5 3 *3 -0,5 0,<> 2,2 3,8 3,8 -0,3 0,0 1,1 2,5 3,7 3,7 - 0 , 1 ___- 0 , 0 - 0 , 9 ___ - 1 , 7 ___ - 2 , 3____- 2 , 6 ___ - 0 , 4 ___ - 1 , 1 ___ - U 9 0 ,1 4 2 9 Q ,2 8 4 — 0 » ?____ 0 ^ 4 ___ O . ^ ____ 0 , 2 Q,Q - 0 , 5 __ - 0 * 8 ___- Q , 8 0,7 0,5 0,3 -0,1 0*9.... 0,7____£ * 7 ____su* ____ 0 , 6 0,5 0,1 0,3 1,2 2,4 3,4 3 * 3 ____ 2 * 3 ____2 W1 1,0 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,5 0,8 1,7 2*8 3,6 3*6 9 - 7 9 10-79 1 1 -79 12-79 1- 6 0 2-80 3-80 4-80 5-60 6-80 7-80 8-80 6-79 7-79 8-79 0,6 1,0 0.5 0,9 0,9 -0,3 9 * ll V > __ 9 0 j 9 5 1 -0,3 -0 *4 0 ,7 9 0 .6 7 8 2,6___ 3*i___ 4 t8._ - 0 .2 11-80 12-9 Q- 1 ,3 9 Ç , 5 5 2__ 1 , 6 ______1 , 7 . 90,710 3,9 3,7 3,4 3,5 90,961 3,5 91,490R 9-80 10-80 11-80 12-80 INITIAL MONTH P- PRELIMINARY P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E 8 A N K O F ST* L O U I S F E B R U A R Y 6, 1 9 8 1 EMPLOYMENT RATIO SCALE MILLIONS 19 7 ? RATIO OF P E R S O N S 19 74 SEASONALLY AOJUSTEO 19 75 >976 1977 MILLIONS 1978 1979 SCALE OF P E R S O N S 1980 1981 S OURCE* U S . D E P A R T M E N T OF L A B O R P E R C E N T A G E S ARE A N N U A L R A T E S OF CHA N G E FO R P E R I O D S I N D ICATED '.ATEST D A T A PLOTTEO) JANUARY PRELIMINARY P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K OF < LOUIS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE PE R C E N T SEASONALLY ADJ USTED PE R C E N T 1 I 1.0 10.( 9. ( 8. ( 6. ( S OURCE) US. D E P A R T M E N T OF L A B O R P E R C E N T OF C I V I L I A N L A B O R FORCE L A T E S T D A T A P L O TTED« J A N U A R Y PR EPARED B Y FE D E R A L R E S ER V E BANK OF < 3 LOU I ! C O N S U M E R PRICE INDEX FOR ALL U R B A N CON S U M E R S , S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E D * ______________________C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E _______________________ __________________________________ IN IT IA L HONTH__________ TERMINAL MONTH 6-79 7-79 8-79 9-79 10-79 11-79 1 4 .8 8-79 1 4 .1 1 3 *4 9-79 1 4 .4 1 4 *2 2-90 3-80 4 —8 0 6-80 5-80 7-80 8-80 9-80 11-80 10-80 12-80 2 2 0 *7 . 1 5 *1 2 ??*3 _ 2 2 5 .7 10-79 1 4 *2 1 4 *1 1 4 .4 1 3 *7 11-79 1 4 .2 1 4 .1 1 4 .3 1 3 .9 1 4 .1 1 4 .3 1 4 .5 1 4 .3 1 4 .6 1 5 .2 1 4 .4 1-80 218 *4 7-79 12-79 12-79 1967-100 ____ 228^2 2 3 S L * S _ ._ ?2 4 * L . 1-80 1 4 .9 1 4 *9 1 5 ,2 1 5 .2 1 5 *7 1 6 .6 1 8 .0 2-80 1 5 .1 1 5 .1 1 5 .4 1 5 .5 1 5 .9 1 6 .5 1 7 .2 3-80 1 5 .3 1 5 .4 1 5 .7 1 5 .8 1 6 .2 1 6 .8 1 7 .3 1 7 .0 1 7 .5 4-80 1 4 .9 1 4 *9 1 5 *1 1 5 .1 1 5 .3 1 5 .6 1 5 *7 1 5 .0 1 4 .2 5-80 1 4 .5 1 4 .5 1 4 .6 1 4 .6 1 4 .7 1 4 .8 1 4 .7 1 3 .9 1 3 .1 11*0 1 0 .9 6— 80 1 4 .4 1 4 .3 1 4 .4 1 4 .3 1 4 .4 1 4 .5 1 4 .3 1 3 .6 1 2 .9 1 1 .4 1 1 .7 7-80 1 3 .3 1 3 .1 1 3 .1 1 2 .9 1 2 .8 1 2 .7 1 2 *3 1 1 .4 1 0 *4 8 *7 8-80 1 3 .0 1 2 .9 12.8 12.6 1 2 .5 1 2 .3 1 2 .0 11.2 1 0 .3 9 - BO 1 3 .0 1 2 .9 1 2 .9 1 2 .7 12.6 1 2 .4 12.1 1 1 .4 1 0 .7 2 4 < U 2__ 2 4 2 *4 11.0 2 4 4 *5 _ 1 2 *4 2 4 6 .9 8*0 6 .6 8 .9 8 *4 _ 7^6 5^2 9 .6 9 .6 9 .4 9 .0 7 .8 1 1 .4 2 4 I4 _ l* .Q _ 242 « Q _ 1 3 .3 251 10-80 1 3 .0 1 2 .9 1 2 .9 1 2 .7 12.6 1 2 .5 12.2 1 1*6 11*0 10*1 10,0 9 ,8 9 *1 _ 1 2 *4 . 13± 2 1 3 *L_ 11-80 1 3 .1 1 3 .0 1 3 .0 1 2 .8 1 2 .7 12.6 1 2 .4 1 1 .9 1 1 .3 10 .6 1 0 .5 1 0 .5 10*1 1 2 *5 1 3 *5 13#i> 14 *0 12-80 1 3 .0 1 2 .9 1 2 .9 1 2 .8 1 2 .7 12.6 1 2 .4 1 1 *9 1 1 *4 10.8 £ 1 0 .7 1 0 .5 1 2 .5 1 3 *2 1 3 .2 1 3 .2 1-81 12*8 12 *7 1 2 *7 12 *5 1 2 .5 1 2 .3 12.1 1 1 *7 11.2 10 .6 10*6 1 0 *5 1 0 .3 1 U 9 1 2 *4 12.1 11 *8 6-79 7-79 8-79 9-79 10-79 11-79 12-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 5-80 6—8 0 7-80 8-60 9-80 10-80 r *6 254. 2 2 5 7 .0 2 5 9 .5 1 2 .3 . 1 0 ,7 1 1 —8 0 9 . | ___ 2 6 1 *4 12-80 IN IT IA L MONTH »R EV ISED FROM 1979» PREPAREO BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST . LO UIS FEBRUARY 2 5 , 1981 PRODUCER PR IC E INDEX» FIN ISH ED ^OODS - SEASONALLY ADJUSTED * __________________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE__________________ 1967 - 100 M ON TH ___________ 6^13___7 - I i __ d-JV__ IQ-79 11-79 12-79_________ i-HQ___¿-flQ__ 3-ttQ 4-d0 5-8Q fa-80 7-BO 8-8Q 9-SQ 10-HQ 11-ttQ 12-rtO 7 - 7 9 _____ 1 ^ . 6 J 3 - 7 9 ____ 12.6 ¿ 1 7 .4 11.6 9 - 7 9 _____ 1 5 . Z ___ 1 6 . B___ 2 2 * 2 _ _ 10-1 3 1 5 . 2 ___ 1 5 . a ___ 1 7 . 9 ___ 1 3 . 7 11-7 9 1 5 . 7 ___ 1 6 . 3 ___ 1 7 . 9 1 3 .7 1 7 .a 1 2 ~ 7 ? _____ I A a J ____L ì j l Q___ L5 - .6 ____1 3 . 7 ____1 3 . 8 1 - 6 Q_____ L 5 a 7 ___ 1 6 4 ____1 2 * 0 ____1 5 . 7 1 6 .3 ¿3 0 .4 9 . 9 ______________ 1 5 .6 2 1 .7 - 2 - B O _____ L 5 . 9 ___ 1 6 . 2 ____17L.G____1 6 ^ 0 ____1 6 * 5 ____1 4 . 1 ___ l i * 4 ____1 7 . 1 - . 3 - B O _____ 15 * Z ___ __________ 1 6 . 5 ____1 ^ 6 ____Lft^ Q ____1 ^ . 6 ____1 1 * 3 ____1 5 . 5 ____ 1 4 . 0 ___ — 4 .- B 0 _____ 1 5 . 0 ____1 5 j Z ___ 1 5 ..6 ____L U _____ 1 A 4 ___ 1 4^.2____1 4 . 5 6- ttO _____ 1 3 . 8 13. 1 3 .5 ___ 1 4 i.9 ____U t * 3 ____1 5 . 4 ___ 1 3 . 4 ____1 1 . 7 _____ 9 . 4 1 3 .5 1 2 .a ¿41*7 1 3 . 4 ___ 1 1 * 4 _____ 9 * 6 _____ 7 * 5 _____ 5 . 6 a.4 1 4 . Q ____1 3 . 2 ____L 3 * l ____ 1 2 * 5 ____1 2 . 9 ____1 1 . 2 2 L .9 ___ 1 0 _*3 _ 2 4 4 - ti 1 4 . 5 ____1 4 . 5 ___ l ± * a ___ l f k * l ____1 4 . 1 ____1 3 . 7 ___ 1 4 . 2 ___ 1 3 * 0 ____1 2 * 2 ___ l l ^ d ____1 2 * 6 ____1 6 . 3 ___ 2 2 . 6 - 9 - 8 Q _____ 1 3 . U ____1 3 . 6 ____1 3 . 9 1 3 .3 1 3 .2 1 2 ,8 1 3 .1 1 0 —8 0 _____ 1 3 . 4 ___ 1 3 . 4 ___ 1 3 . ù 1 2 .9 1 2 .9 1 2 .% 1 2 .7 „ 1 1 - 8 0 _____ 1 3 * 2 ____1 3 . 1 ____1 3 . 2 ____1 2 . 6 ____1 2 . 5 ____1 2 . 1 1 2 .3 9 .3 3 .4 1 1 . 7 ____1 1 . 1 ___ 1 0 . 7 ____1 0 v 9 ____1 2 . Q____1 2 . 4 9 .1 6 . 1 _____ 8 . 9 1 1 . 4 ____1 0 . a ___ 1 0 . 4 ____1 0 . 6 ___ 1 1 ^ 4 ___ 1 1 . 6 9 .1 7 . 0 _____ a . 9 _____ 8 . 3 1 2 . 1 ____ 1 1 . 4 ___ L L * 0 ____1 1 . 3 ____1 2 * 7 ____1 3 * 5 _ 1 2 - 6 0 _____ L 2 * 7 ____1 ^ * 7 ____L 2 j *_8____1 2 . 2 ____ 1 2 .Q 1 1 .6 1 1 .a 1 0 . 9 ____1 0 . 3 _____ SL*3____1 0 . 0 _l=fil____ 12.6___1 2 . 6 __ 12.6 11.6 11.7 1 Q.9 1 Q . 3 ___10* 0 ___10*1___1 0 . 6 10.7 8.8 7.5 1 0 - 7 9 11 - 7 9 1 2 - 7 9 1-80 2-80 6-8 0 7-80 8-80 6-79 7-79 8-79 12.1 9-79 12. 0 3-50 4-80 1 Q . 6 ___ 1 Q * 6 _____ B . 4 5-80 6 . 7 _____ 7 . a 2 5 6 .3 7 . 3 _____ 5 . fl . 5 ____ f l^ 4 .2___1 0 . 7 - 2 5 9 ,7 9 - 8 0 10-80 11-80 12-80 INITIAL MONTH -J*R£V1^£Q_FRJJM 1 9 7 6 . P R E P A R E D B Y F E O E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K OF ST. L O U I S 4 RATIO SCALE P R I C E S 1967-100 RATIO SEASONALLY ADJUSTED H C P I - U FOR AL L URBAN CONSU ME RS R E V I S E D FROM 1979 ( 7 6 - 7 8 R E V I S I O N P E R C E N T A G E S A R E A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N C E F O R P E R I O D S I N D I C A T E D . LATEST K. ratio OATA REVISED PLOTTED: FROM AVAILABLE AT THIS TI ME: 197« PRODUCER PRI CES* ARE NOT JANUARY S CAL E PERCENTAGES SCALE 1967-100 ANNUAL L A TES T DATA PLOTT ED. * R E V I S E O FROM 1 9 7 « RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS RATIO SCALE INDICATED JANUARY PREPARE BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S' . LOUl! 5 PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, F I N I S H E D C O N S U M E R F O O D S - S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E D « C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E T E R M I N A L ________________________________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L M ONTH_____________ ___________________________________________________________________ 1967 - 100 MONTH 6-79 7-79 8-79 10-79 9-79 11-79 12-79 1-80 2-80 4-80 3-80 5-8 0 6-8 0 7-80 9-80 lo-eo 8-80 n -80 12-80 223.7 7-79 6 .7 8-79 5 .5 4 . 4 9-79 1 0 .8 1 3 .0 2 2 .3 224.5 228*3 10-79 8 .0 8 .5 1 0 .6 0 .0 1 i —79 1 0 .9 1 2 .0 1 4 .0 1 1 .0 228*3 2 3 .2 232 .3 233 *4 12-79 1 0 .0 1 0 .7 1 2 .4 9 .2 1 4 .2 5 .8 1—80 7 .4 7 .6 8 .2 4*9 6 *6 - 0 .8 - 7 .0 2-80 5 .6 5 .4 5 .6 2 .5 3 .2 - 2 .7 - 6 .7 - 6 .5 3-80 6 .3 6 .2 6 .5 4. 1 4 .9 0 .8 - 0 .9 2 .4 1 2 .1 4-80 3 .9 3 .7 3 .6 1 .1 1 .3 - 2 .6 -4. 6 - 3 .7 - 2 .3 - 1 4 .9 5-80 4 .1 3.8 3 .8 1 .6 1 .9 - 1 .3 - 2 .7 - 1 .5 0 .2 - 5 .3 5 .3 6—80 4 .3 4 .1 4 .1 2 .2 2 .5 - 0 .1 - 1 .1 0 .1 1 .8 - 1 .4 6 .2 7 .0 232*0 230.7 232.9 229.8 230.8 232.1 2 4 0 .6 6 .5 7 .2 5 .4 5 .3 7 .6 1 0 .6 1 0 .2 2 0 .2 2 8 .3 5 4 .0 1 0 .0 9 .0 9 .9 8 .5 8 .9 1 1 .3 1 4 .6 1 5 .2 2 4 .2 3 1 .2 4 5 .3 3 7 .0 9-80 9 .2 9 .4 9 .7 8.8 9 .6 8 .3 8. 6 1 0 .7 1 3 .4 1 3 .7 2 0 .4 2 4 .5 3 1 .0 2 0 .8 6 .5 10-80 9 .0 9 .1 9 .5 8.5 9 .3 8 .1 8 .3 1 0 .2 1 2 .5 1 2 .5 1 7 .9 2 0 .6 2 4 .2 1 5 .6 6 .2 6 .0 11-80 8 .7 8.8 9 .1 8.2 8 .9 7 .7 7 .9 9 .5 1 1 .5 1 1 .4 1 5 .8 1 7 .6 1 9 .9 1 2 .6 5 .5 4 .9 3 .9 12-80 8.2 8 .3 8.6 7 .7 8.3 7 .2 7 .3 8 .7 1 0 .4 10. 2 1 3 .8 1 5 .1 1 6 .5 1 0 .2 4 .3 3 .6 2 .4 1 .0 1-81 7 .8 7 .9 8 .1 7 .2 7 .7 6 .7 6 .8 8 .0 9 .4 9 .2 1 2 .2 1 3 .1 1 4 .1 8 .5 3 .5 2 .8 1 .8 0 .7 0 .5 '7 - 7 9 6-7^ 9-79 1 - 0 <5~ 2 - 8 0 i^ S o 4 —Ô 0 J- Ö Ö 6 —8 0 7-80 8-80 9-8Ô 10-80 11-80 12-60 6 - W H-79 > 7 .8 9 .6 T 7 .6 9 .4 > rl 7 .5 8-80 o 7-80 IN IT IA L ♦ R E V IS E D FR O M 2 4 7 *0 24 6 *3 2 4 9 .5 250*3 P R IC E IN D E X , F I N I S H E D C O M PO U N D ED M ONTH GO O DS, ANNUAL E X C L U D IN G FO O D S R A T E S OF C H A N G E - SEASO N ALLY A D JU S T E D » 1HO N TH IN IT IA L 1967 I 1 8-79 9-79 10-79 7-79 1 7 .1 8-79 1 5 .4 1 3 .7 9-79 1 7 .8 1 8 .1 2 2 .6 10-79 1 8 .1 1 8 .4 2 0 .8 1 8 .9 11-79 1 7 .5 1 7 .6 1 9 .0 1 7 .2 1 5 .5 12-79 1 6 .6 1 6 .4 1 7 .1 1 5 .4 1 3 .6 11-79 12-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 o 7-79 !< 1t\ T E R M IN A L MONTH 6-79 6-80 7-80 8-60 9-80 10-60 11-80 « 100 12-60 2 1 3 .8 2 1 6 *1 2 1 9 *6 2 2 3 .0 2 2 5 .7 1 1 .8 2 2 7 .6 1-80 1 8 .9 1 9 .2 2 0 .3 19. 7 2 0 .0 2 2 .3 3 3 .8 2-80 1 9 .7 2 0 .1 2 1 .2 2 0 .9 2 1 .4 2 3 .4 2 9 .7 2 5 .8 3-80 1 9 .2 1 9 .5 2 0 .3 1 9 .9 2 0 .1 2 1 .3 2 4 *6 2 0 .3 1 5 *1 4-80 1 9 .2 1 9 .4 2 0 .1 1 9 .8 1 9 .9 2 0 .8 2 3 .2 1 9 .8 17 *0 1 8 .9 5-80 1 7 .9 1 7 .9 1 8 .4 1 7 .9 1 7 .7 1 8 .1 1 9 .4 1 6 .1 1 3 .0 1 2 *0 5 .5 6-80 1 7 .3 1 7 .3 1 7 .7 1 7 .1 1 6 .9 1 7 .1 1 8 .0 1 5 *1 1 2 .6 1 1 *8 8 .4 1 1 .3 7-80 17 *0 1 7 .0 1 7 .3 1 6 .8 1 6 .6 1 6 .7 1 7 *4 1 4 .9 1 2 *9 1 2 *3 1 0 .2 1 2 .6 1 3 .9 8-8C 1 6 .4 1 6 .4 1 6 .6 1 6 .1 1 5 .8 1 5 *8 1 6 .4 14 *0 1 2 .2 1 1 *6 9 .9 1 1 .4 1 1 .4 9 .0 9-80 1 5 .4 1 5 .3 1 5 .5 1 4 .9 1 4 .5 1 4 .4 1 4 .7 1 2 .5 1 0 .7 1 0 .0 6 .4 9 .1 8 .3 5 .6 2 .4 10-80 1 5 .1 1 5 .0 1 5 .0 1 4 .5 1 4 .1 14 *0 1 4 *2 1 2 *2 1 0 .6 1 0 *0 8 .6 9 *2 8 *7 7 *1 6*1 9 .9 11-80 1 4 .8 1 4 .7 1 4 .7 1 4 .2 1 3 .8 1 3 .7 13 *9 1 2 *0 1 0 .6 1 0 *1 8 .9 9 *4 9*1 7*9 7 *5 1 0 *1 12-80 1 4 .4 1 4 .2 1 4 .3 1 3 .7 1 3 .4 1 3 .2 1 3 .3 1 1 .6 1 0 .3 9 .8 8 .7 9 .2 8 *8 7 .8 7 *6 9 .3 9 *0 7 *7 1 -8 1 1 4 .4 1 4 .3 1 4 .3 1 3 .6 1 3 .4 1 3 .3 1 3 .4 1 1 .9 1 0 .7 1 0 .3 9 .3 9 .8 9 *6 8 *9 8 *9 1 0 *6 1 0 *6 1 1 *0 6-79 7-79 Ô—7 9 9-79 10-79 11-79 12-79 1-6Ö 2-80 3-Ô 0 4 —8 0 '3 - 8 0 6 —8 0 7-60 8-8 Ö 9-aO 2 3 3 .4 2 3 7 .9 240 .7 2 4 4 .2 2 4 5 .3 2 4 7 *5 2 5 0 *2 2 5 2 *0 2 5 2 .5 2 5 4 *5 1 0 *4 ! IN IT IA L FR O M 250.6 1976 PRO D U C ER * R E V I Sfcü 2 5 0 *5 2 5 6 .6 li-d o 258 *2 1 4 *3 2 6 1 *1 12-60 M ON TH 1976. PREPAREE» BV FED ERA L KE SER V E B a NK OF S T , 6 F E B R U A R Y 23, 1981 L O U IS N D U S T R I A L P R O D U C T I O N RATIO RAT I 0 SCALE 19 6 7 - 1 0 0 1973 SEASONALLY 1974 1975 1976 I 967-100 ADJ US TED 1977 SCALE 1978 1979 1980 1981 PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHAN6E FOR PERIODS INDICATED LATEST DATA PLOTTED: JANUARY PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S . LOUIS IND USTRIAL PRODUCTION TERMINAL NQNTH 1967 6-79 7-79 -79 9-79 10-79 11-79 12-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 5-80 6-80 7-80 8-80 9-80 10-80 11-80 * 100 12-80 1 5 3 .0 8-79 -0.8 -1.2 1 5 2 .7 10-79 - 0 .6 - 0 .8 2 .4 0 .0 11-79 - 1 .1 - 1 .4 0 .5 - 1 .6 - 3 .1 1 5 2 .7 12-79 - 0 .7 - 0 .8 0 .8 - 0 .5 - 0 .8 1-80 - 0 .3 - 0 .4 0 .9 0 .0 0 .0 1 5 2 .3 1 .6 1 .6 1 5 2 .5 1 5 2 .7 1 .6 - 0 .4 0 .7 - 0 .2 - 0 .2 0 .8 0 .4 - 0 .8 - 0 .9 0 .0 - 0 .8 - 0 .9 - 0 .4 - 1 .0 - 2 .3 - 3 .9 4 —6 0 - 3 .7 - 4 .1 - 3 .7 - 4 .9 - 5 .7 - 6 .2 - 8 .0 - 1 1 .0 - 1 5 .8 - 2 6 .2 - 7 .0 - 7 .0 —8 . 4 - 9 .6 - 1 0 .6 - 1 2 .9 - 1 6 .1 - 2 0 .7 - 2 8 .0 - 2 9 .7 - 8 .5 -9 *7 -1 0 *1 - U .fl -1 1 *9 - U .7 - 2 0 .3 - 2 5 .1 - 2 4 .5 - 1 9 .0 - 9 .6 - 1 0 .6 - 1 1 .5 - 1 3 .2 - 1 5 .5 - 1 8 .1 - 2 1 .3 - 1 9 .7 - 1 4 .1 1 5 2 .6 1 5 2 .1 1 4 8 .3 o T - 0 .4 - 0 .6 * 2-80 3-80 - 6 .4 6 —8 0 - 7 .S 7-80 - 7 .6 - 8 .2 - 8 .4 8-60 - 6 .3 - 6 .8 —6 . 8 - 7 .8 - 8 .5 - 9 .1 - 1 0 .3 - 1 1 .9 - 1 3 .7 - 1 5 .5 - 1 2 .6 —6 . 0 1 .3 1 2 .6 9-80 - 4 .7 - 5 .0 - 4 .9 - 5 .6 - 6 .1 - 6 .4 - 7 .3 - 8 .3 - 9 .4 - 1 0 .2 - 6 .7 0 .2 7 .6 1 6 .9 2 1 .3 10-80 - 3 .0 - 3 .2 - 2 .9 - 3 .5 - 3 .8 - 3 .9 - 4 .4 - 5 .0 —5 . 6 - 5 .8 - 1 .9 4 .9 1 1 .9 1 9 .8 2 3 .6 1 .3 7 .6 1 3 .9 2 0 .5 2 3 .2 2 4 .2 2 2 .4 -1 . 8 - 1 .4 - 1 .9 - 2 .0 -0. V - 1 .0 —0 . 6 - 0 .9 - 0 .5 - 0 .5 —0 . 1 - 0 .4 6-7 V 7-79 2 —7 ? 9-79 11-60 - 1 .7 12-80 1 —6 1 1 4 4 .0 1 4 1 .5 1 4 0 .4 - 8 .9 1 4 1 .8 1 4 4 .1 1 4 6 .9 2 6 .0 1 4 9 .4 - 1 .9 - 2 .2 - 2 .6 - 2 .8 - 2 .7 - 1 .0 - 0 .8 - 1 .0 - 1 .3 - 1 .3 - 1 .1 2 .6 8 .4 1 3 .7 1 8 .9 2 0 .5 2 0 .3 1 7 .5 1 2 .7 - 0 .5 - 0 .3 - 0 .4 - 0 .6 —0 . 6 - 0 .2 3 .2 8 .2 1 2 .8 1 6 .9 1 7 .8 1 6 .9 1 4 .0 1 0 .0 7 .4 l Q r 79 11-79 12-79 1-8Q 3 - ftO 4-80 5-80 - _6 r6 0 7-30 8 —6 0 .. 9 - f iO _1£ M 3 Q _ l i - a o 12 -flO 1 5 0 .9 P 1 5 1 .8 P INITIAL MONTH P R E L I MI N A R Y , P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K OF ST. L O U I S F E B R U A R Y 17, 1 9 8 1 7 PERSONAL RATIO SCALE TRILLIO NS INCOME* MONTHLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES OF SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DOLLARS RATIO TRILLIONS OF SCALE DOLLARS 2.5 2.4 2 .: 2.; 2. 2 A O.S ). SO U RC E« U . S . P E R C E N T A G E S AR E LATEST DATA «IftEV ISEO ANNUAL R A T E S PLOTTED» FROM JA N U A R Y OF CHANCE FOR P E R IO D S DEPARTM EN T OF COMMERCE IN D IC A T E D . P R E L IM IN A R Y P R EPA R ED 194«. PERSONAL BY FE D E R A L RESERVE BANK OF S L O U IS INCOME* COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE BILLIONS TERMINAL MONTH INITIAL MONTH ANNUAL RATES 7 -7 9 20 t 8 -7 9 1 7.1 13 9 -7 9 1 4.1 in é9 10-79 1 4 .3 11-79 1 4 .2 \? 12-79 l i . f i 1 f , .5 • ft ? •4 ]? \? 1—€0 1*,1 13 1 3 ,0 i i ,9 i i •5 4 -8 0 12 11,2 5 -80 1 0 .9 ¿»-80 lù .fa 7 -80 11 in fi-flO 1 1 -3 9 —f l O 10-80 , i> .0 1 .9 A 7 .9 2 01 Î •f t 15.1 .3 1 4 .3 13 1 3 .5 1 ? .7 11 , 9 1 4 ,1 1 3 ftfi 13 .9 15 .9 .6 11•ft 11 • 0 10 6 • •4 1ft 9,, 9 ,1 fl,, 7 fl 7 ,5 •9 4. )? •V 11 11 a / •0 1 2 ,3 1 1 .7 , 11 2 .0 3 2 .7 10,0 9 .9 9,. 5 9 .7 ft . 9 fl 9 .7 9 9 .4 ft • fl fl . 1 7 9 . .6 V k4 7,. 4 20 2 101.0 2 102.1 0.6 ^t . f l , 7 . .1 2 .1 1 4 .1 .6 ? r 1 27-1 IS,»ft .1 1 0 . A i n .1 9 •h 9, A, fl.. f l f l , >fl . 11.,7 1 4 . >1 ? 1 ,. 0 i n • ft 10 . 4 1 0 .6 1 0 .1 9 .7 9, ft • ft 9 , .1 9, 1 1.. 4 1 ? .,9 m 1 1 .0 m in ,.7 1 1 .0 10 . 6 in i n , .1 9,. 4 1 1 .9 11 , 3 11 1 1 .4 11 • 1 in .9 in .fl n .% 1 1 , 1 1 .5 11 u i i , »0 1 1 , 1 1 .5 11-80 1 2 .0 12-80 1 1 .9 l - e i -1 .1 * ? 6-79 .9 11 . 4 i i •4 7-79 » R E V I S E D F R U M 1946, P- PRELIMINARY i i .3 8-79 _ L1 * 5 . 9-79 .0 11 i i 11 . 3 i i ftl •n 10-79 H - 7 9 n .9 •0 i i , .0 flA .A , 1 0,. 3 .% 1 .3 2 .0 5 1 .A 9 •6 10 Q 1 .9 7 4 .fi •3 1 1? 2 —8 0 3 -8 0 OF _____D O L L A R S _______ 7,»4 7i .» 7 2 t 1 * 1 -2 1ft * 6 in . .0 t o , .? 1?. m .. 6 1*5,. 6 M in , 10«ifi 1 1 « ,1 n < .f t 1 4..? M . ,9 14 in , i i . ,1 1 1 ,A M i . ft 1 4 . .ft M . M • ft .9 1 5 .5 2 .2 0 5 - * 1 A .1 16,. 7 1 5 .0 1 4 •fl 2 . 2 U - 2 2 r 2 5 7 -1 M , ■ft in , i i . ,0 11«.3 l?i i 7 m .>6 14..6 M , 1 4 .0 M 1 ? . >ft 1 1 i. 0 10,>6 u . .1 11.,4 1 2 . >6 1 3 ..3 1 4 ,.2 1 3 •I 1 3 .6 1 3 •1 11.. 9 11,. 4 2 .2 7 A -A l l t f i 2 .2 9 8 .1 P 12-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 5-80 6-80 7-80 8-80 9-80 10-80 11-80 12-80 INITIAL MONTH 8 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST* LOUIS FEBRUARY 18. 1981 RETAIL RATIO SALES SCALE 1973 RATIO 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 SCALE 1981 SOURCE: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL BATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED: DECEMBER, JANUARY AOVANCE ESTIMATE PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF $ . LOUIS R E T A IL SA LES CUMPWN£>££ A MNUAL RATES 1N1T1AL CHAH&6 , M ILLIONS QF DOLLARS M ONTH MONTH 6 - / 9 ___ 7 - Z .V ___ ü - 7 9 9-79 1 0 —7 9 11-79 12-79 i~ Ö Q 2-80 3-8C 4-80 5 - 8 0___ 6-8 0___ 7 - 8 0 8 - 3 0 ___ ? - 8Q lQ - gQ i l ~ 9Q 12 ~ f l Q 7 3 ,1 2 1 7 - 7 9 ______l ü . t > 7 4 >8 7 1 _______________ 2 5 . 5 ___ 3 2 . 6 7 6 .6 6 6 ___9 —.79_____ 2 7 . 9 ____3 2 . 3 ___ 3 2 . 9 ___ 10-7 9 L i+ 2 ____1 4 . 2 _____ 5 . B - 1 5 .7 7 6 ,4 2 1 11-7 9 L S ^ J J ____L - ü ^ 5 ____- 1 . 9 ____L * t* 1 12-7 9 1 4 . 5 ____L 3 . 2 _____ __________ 2 ^ 5 ____1 3 . 1 ____ L 2 ^ J ___ ___ 1 - B O _____ I d . 2____L fc U l____15 «4 ____1 1 . 4 2 2 .2 2 6 .4 77.1 5 0 7 9 .4 6 4 4 2 .6 - 2 Q . 1 ___ 7 7 .9 9 3 - 2 Q .2 - 2 0 . 3 ________ 7 6 . 5 34 _4 fc= Ä Ü ------ _____________________________ - J . f ___ r l * S ___ - 4 * 4 ___ - t f . l - 2 0 .6 -2 0 *9 - 2 1 .4 75.011 — 5-aQ - 1 7 .3 - 1 6 .4 - 1 4 . 3 ___ - f e . 6 - 2 - flC _____ 1 2 . 5 ____1 1 . 7 _____ __________ W _____ 9 ^ 9 _____ fiL^S_____ 6 . 7 ■ 3 - 8 Û ------ £L^i---- Lm J----- ________- 0 . 3 _____ i*_Q _____ ________ - 3 . 2 6-ac 3 . Ü _____ ¿ * 4 ___ - 0 . 5 ___ - ^ I . Ü___ - j L^ j L___ r 4 W ___ - 7 . 8 5.4 4 .3 -1.Ü ~-Lt ___ -~i) * 9 ___ - 3 . 0 - 1 0 .1 - 7 . 5 ___ - ¿ . f i . 3.Q 5 .1 7-79 8-7^ 9-79 10-79 11-79 1 4 . 6 ___ ¿ ¿ . Q 9 * 3 ___ 1 5^2 ___ Z Q ^ ___ 19-.3___ 1 2 « * ___ L 4 a 9 9« 1_ 7 .1 1 1 .2 ___1_£l. 21*2___2 0 .4 ___15*4 4. Q 6 .8 1Q.3 1 5 .1 1 8 .5 ___ 17^4___L 3 .Q ___1 4 .3 ___L U 2 ___ 8 .2 5 .7 8 .4 1 1 .8 1 6 .3 1 9 .5 1 8 .7 1 5 .2 12-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-8 0 5-80 6-80 7-80 7. 5 - 7 .6 ____ L *2 ____ 6 .8 - A r61____ 10« 1____ ________ ________ ZjlI ____ iU Ü ____ 6 .5 2 3 .3 1 . 2 _____ ± j*h_____ ________ 1 7 . Q___ 5*1 6 —7 v 7 8 . 7 70 2 4 . 4 ___ 2 4 . 0 - - 5 .1 -6. Q 7 9 .2 8 7 7.Q___1 9 .6 ___33« 7___4 2 .7 ._ 3 .7 -5.2 74,587 6 . 2 ___ ¿ 5 . 3 82 «362 P 16*7___15*4___l i * . 0 ___11 a <L -80 9-80 10-80 11HS0 12-80 INITIAL MONTH P- h r e l i h i k a r y £- ESTI MATE U___ P R E P A R E D B V F E D E R A L RES E R V E BANK OF fifi&UAR Y 12^1981 HOURLY COMPENSATION, PRIVATETOSTNE5S SECTOR* CayOUNOED A N N U A L RATES Of CHANCE TERMINAL INITIAL QUARTER 1977 * 100 QUARTER 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 3-7# 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3—#0 91.7 2-76 8 »3 3-76 8 .6 4-76 8*4 8 .5 7 .9 1-77 8*0 7 .9 7 .4 6 .9 2-77 7 .9 7 .9 7.5 7 .2 93.7 9 .0 95*5 97.1 7a» 98.9 100.9 3-77 8*0 7 .9 7 .7 7 .6 8 ,0 8 .3 4-77 7.8 7 .8 7.5 7 .4 7.6 7 .6 6 .9 1-78 8.1 8 .0 7 .9 7 .* 8.1 8 .3 8 .3 9 .7 2-78 8.1 8.1 7 ,9 7 .9 8 .2 0 .3 8 .3 9 .0 8*2 8 .1 8.3 8 .4 8 .4 8 .9 8.6 8.9 8 .2 8 .4 8 .6 8 .6 9 .1 8 .9 9.2 3-78 8*2 8 .2 4-78 8 .3 8 .3 1-79 8 .6 8 .6 2-79 8 .7 8 .8 3-79 8 .7 8 .8 8 .7 102.6 105.0 107.1 109.4 9.5 111.9 115.0 8 .6 8 .8 9 .0 9 .1 9 .6 9 .5 10.0 10.5 11.6 8 .8 9.1 9 .2 9 .4 9 .8 9.8 10.2 10.6 11.2 10.9 8 .8 9 .0 9 .2 9 .3 9 .6 9 .6 9 .9 10.1 10.4 9 .8 8 .7 9 .4 8 .7 118*0 120.5 123.0 8 .6 4-79 8.7 8 .8 8 .8 9 .0 9. 1 9 .2 9 .5 9.5 9 .7 9.8 9 .9 1-80 8.8 8 .8 8 .9 9.1 9 .2 9 .3 9 .6 9.5 9 .7 9.9 10.0 9 .6 9 .1 9 .3 10.1 2-eo 9 .0 9.1 9. 1 9 .3 9 .5 9 .6 9 .8 9 .8 10.0 10*2 10.3 10.1 9 .9 10.3 11.2 12.3 10.2 10.8 11.1 9 .9 9.1 126.0 129.7 132.8 3-80 9 .1 9 .1 9.1 9 .2 9 .4 9 .5 9 .6 9 .8 9 .9 10.0 10.2 10.3 io a 9 .9 4-eo 9 .0 9. 1 9.1 9. 1 9 .3 9 .4 9 .5 9 .7 9.7 9 .9 10.0 10.0 9 .8 9 .7 9 .8 10.2 10.2 9 .1 8 .4 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1—80 2-flO 3-80 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 135.5P IN IT IA L QUARTER ♦REVISED FROH 1947. OUTPUT PER HOUR OF ALL PERSO N S, PR IV A T E BU SIN ESS SECTOR* COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE 2-76 3-76 4-7 6 3-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 97.7 2-76 1 .7 3-76 1 .4 1.2 4-76 X tl 0 .8 0*4 98.0 98.1 99.5 1-77 2 .3 2 .5 3.1 5 .8 2-77 1.7 1.7 1.9 2 .7 - 0 .4 3-77 2.3 2 ,4 2*8 3 .5 2 .4 99.4 5 .3 100.7 0 .9 1 .6 - 2 .0 100.2 0*1 0*3 - 2 .2 -2*4 1 .2 0*3 0 .5 - l.l - 0 .6 1.2 1.0 1. 1 0 .3 0 .5 - 0 .7 -0 .3 0 .8 4-77 1.7 1 .7 1.8 2 .1 1-78 1.2 1.1 1.1 1 .2 2-78 1*2 1.1 1*1 3-78 1 1-76 1-77 1977 * 100 IN IT IA L QUARTER 1 t e r m in a l QUARTER 99.6 99.9 0 .4 100.0 1*1 1 .0 4-78 1.0 0 .9 0 .9 0 .9 0 .2 0 .3 - 0 .6 - 0 .3 0 .4 0 .0 -0.4 1-79 0 .8 0*7 0 .7 0 .7 0 .1 0 .2 - 0 .7 - 0 .4 0 .1 -0.3 —0.6 -0 .8 2-79 0 .7 0 .6 0 .6 0, 6 0 .0 0 .1 - 0 .6 - 0 .4 0 .0 -0 .3 -0.5 -0 .6 - 0 .4 3—79 0.6 0 .5 0 .4 0 .4 -0 .1 - 0 .1 - 0 .7 -0.6 - 0 .3 - 0 .6 -0.8 - 0 .9 -1*0 —1 .6 4-79 0.5 0 .4 0.3 0 .3 - 0 .2 - 0 .2 - 0 .8 - 0 .6 —0 .3 -0*6 -0.8 -0 .9 -0 .9 - 1 .2 99.9 99.7 99.6 99.2 99.0 -0 .8 1-80 0.5 0 .4 0 .4 0 .4 -0 .1 - 0 .0 - 0 .6 -0 .4 -0*2 -0.3 -0.5 -0 .5 -0*4 - 0 .4 0 .2 1.2 2-80 0 .4 0 .3 0.2 0 .2 -0 .2 —0 .2 - 0 .7 —0 .6 —0*4 -0 .6 -0 .7 - 0 .7 -0*7 - 0 .8 - 0 .5 - 0 .4 3-60 0 .4 0 .4 0.3 0 .3 -0 .1 - 0 .1 - 0 .5 —0 .4 -0 .2 -0*3 -0 .4 - 0 .4 -0*3 - 0 .3 0 .0 0 .3 -0*2 1 .6 4-80 0.3 0 .2 0.2 0 .2 - 0 .2 -0*2 - 0 .6 - 0 .5 - 0 .3 -0*5 —0.6 —0 .6 —0*6 - 0 .6 - 0 .4 -0 .3 -0*8 -0 .2 - 2 .0 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-7 6 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 3-70 V-t8 1-79 2-79 3—79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 »REVISED FROM 1947, 99.3 98.8 -2 .0 99.2 98.7P INITIAL QUARTER ___________________ 10 P R E P A R E D BY F EDERAL R E S E R V E BANK Of S T T T w J T ^ F E B R U A R Y 9 , 1981 PR O D U C T IV IT Y , C O M P E N S A T IO N , RATI O SCALE 1977-100 SEASONALLY AND LABO R COSTS RATIO SCALE 1977-100 180 ADJUSTED 160 I 40 1 2C 100 230 2I C 190 I 7C I 5( I3C 90 SOURCE t U S. P E R C E N T A GE S ARC ANNUAL R A TE S OF CHANGE FOR PE RI ODS LATEST X DATA P l O T T E O . REVISE» F M M DEPARTMENT OF LABOR IN0 ICATEO. 4TH OUARTER 1*47. PR EPARED BY F EDE RAL R E SE RVE BANK OF 8 1 . L OU IS UNIT LARCH COSTS, PRIVATE BUSINESS SECTOR* C OMP O U N D E D ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TÈRMINAL QUARTER 1977 « 100 INITIAL QUARTER 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 2-76 6.7 3-76 7*0 7.4 4-76 7*3 7.6 7.7 1-77 5.7 5.4 4.4 1.2 2-77 6.1 6.0 5.5 4.4 7.6 3-77 5*6 5.3 4.8 3.9 5.2 2.8 4-77 6*0 5.9 5.7 5.1 6*5 5.9 9.1 4-77 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4—79 1-80 2-60 3-80 93.9 95*6 97.4 97.7 99*5 100.2 102*4 1-78 6*8 6.8 6.7 6.5 7.9 8.0 10.6 12.2 2-78 6*9 6.9 6.8 6.7 7.8 7.8 9.6 9.8 7.4 3-78 7*0 7.0 7.0 6.9 7.8 7.9 9.2 9.2 7.7 8.1 4-78 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 8.2 8.3 9.4 9.5 8*6 9.1 105.4 107.3 109.4 10*2 112.1 1— 7 9 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.8 8.7 8.8 9.9 10.0 9*5 10.2 11.3 12.3 2-79 8.0 8.1 8.1 8.2 9.0 9.1 10.1 10.2 9.8 10.4 11.2 11.7 11.2 9*1 9.2 10*1 10.2 9.9 10.4 11.0 11*2 10*7 115*4 118.5 3-79 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.3 4-79 8.2 8.3 8.4 8. 4 9.1 9.3 10*0 10.1 9.8 10.2 10.7 10.8 10.3 9.9 9.5 1-80 8*3 8.4 8.5 8.5 9.1 9.3 9.9 10.0 9.8 10.1 10.5 10.5 10.1 9.7 9.4 9.3 10.3 10.5 10.3 10*6 11.0 11.1 10.9 10.8 11.0 11.8 14.2 10.7 1 0 .4 10.3 8.2 121.4 10.2 124.2 127*0 2-80 8 .6 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.5 9.7 3-80 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.4 9.6 10.1 10.2 10.0 10.3 10.6 10.3 10.5 11.2 4-80 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.5 9.6 10*2 10.3 10.1 10.4 10.6 10.7 10.4 10.3 10*3 10.5 11.0 9.3 10.6 1— 76 2—76 3-76 4— 7 6 1-77 2-77 3-77 %-77 1-78 2-78 3 —78 4-78 1— 7* 2-79 3-79 4-79" 1— 8 0 2-80 3-60 131.3 133.9 137.3P «REVISED FROM 19*7* ~ P - P R E L I M I N A R Y ------- PREPAJUD BV FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST* LOUIS FEBRUARY 9» 19«I 11 CROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN CURRENT DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE B I L L I O N S OF TERMINAL_______________ ______________________________ INITIAL QUARTER______________________ _______________________ DOLLARS QUARTER ANNUAL 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-76 6*5 3-76 6.9 7*4 4-76 8*1 8*9 10*4 1-77 10*0 11*2 13*1 15*9 ?-T? 10*5 11*5 12*9 14*2 12*5 2-77 4-77 3-77 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 RATES 3-80 l,69fe*6 1,729.0 1 *772; *5 1,839*1 1,893*9 3-77 10.8 11*7 u * a 13*6 12*5 12*5 4-77 10*4 11.1 11*8 12*2 11*0 10*3 8*1 1-78 10*3 lo*e 11*4 11.6 10*5 9*9 8*6 1,950*4 1,981*6 9*1 2,032.4 2-7» 11*4 12*0 12*6 13.0 12*4 12.4 12*4 14*7 20.5 3-TS 11*4 12*0 12*6 12*9 12*4 12*3 12*3 13.8 16*2 11*9 4-78 11*8 12*3 12.9 13*2 12.8 12*9 13*0 14*2 16*0 13*8 15*7 1-79 11*9 12*4 12.9 13.2 12.8 12*9 12.9 13*9 I5*t 13*4 14*2 2-7? 11*4 11*6 12*2 12*4 12*0 12*0 11*9 12*6 13*3 11*3 11*4 9*2 5*9 3-79 Ilf 5 11*8 12*2 12*4 12*0 12*0 11*9 12*5 13*1 11*6 11*6 10*2 9*0 12*2 4-79 11*3 11*6 12*0 12.1 11.8 11.7 11*6 12*0 12*5 11*2 11*0 9*9 9*0 10.5 8*8 2,129*6 2,190*5 2 ,27U*9 12*7 2,340*6 2,37%U6 2,444.1 2,496^*3 1-80 11*4 11*7 12*0 12*1 11.8 11*8 11.7 12*1 12*5 11*4 11*3 10*4 9*9 11*2 10*7 12*6 2-80 10*6 10.9 11.1 |1*1 10.8 10*6 10*5 10*7 10*9 9*7 9*4 8*4 7*6 8*0 6*6 5*6 2,571*7 3-«) 10*7 10.9 11*1 11*2 10.8 10.7 10*6 10*8 I M 10*0 9*7 8*9 8*3 8.« 7*9 7.6 5.2 11.8 4-80 10*9 11*1 11*4 11*4 11*1 11*0 10*9 11*2 11*4- 10*5 10*3 9*7 9*2 9.8 9.3 9.5 8*4 13.5 15*2 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 i-7* 2-78 3-78 4— 7 0 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 2,564*8 -1*1 2,637i*3 2, 7 3 2 i * 3 INITIAL QUARtER CR O S S NATIONAL P R O D U C T IN 1972 D O L LARS COMPOUNOED A N N U A L R A TES OF CHAN C E TERMINAL QUARTER 1-76 2-76 $-76 B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES INITIAL Q U A R T « 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-60 1,295*8 2.7 1,303*3 _ I *315*4 4-76 2*9 3*0 3*8 1-77 4*6 5.2 6.4 9*6 2-77 4*7 5.2 4*2 7.4 5.5 4*3 7*2 6.0 6*7 4-77 4*4 4*t 3*4 5*8 4*5 4*2 1*7 1-78 4*4 4*4 5*0 3*3 4*2 3** 2*4 3.1 2-78 4*9 5*2 5*6 5*9 5.1 5*1 4*5 6*0 9*0 ;^3*6 - 4 * 4 3-77 1,343*9 1,363.4 5*3 1,385.8 1,391*5 1 , 4 0 2 *3 1 . 4 3 2>*8 1 ,44^*7 4*9 4*4 5*3 *#4 *3 * 9 5*0 4*9 4*6 5*3 6*1 4*7 3*4 1,465*6 5*2 i , 3 * 4 - "4*9 4,1 4*5 5*1 ^*4 4*6 1,479*9 - ,4*4 ■ 4 * 4 4* 6 ■ 4.1 3-78 4*8 3*0 5*4 4-78 4*8 5*1 5*4 1-79 4*8 4*9 3*6 1,473*4 2-79 4*2 4*0 -3 * 6 3*9 4*0~~ 2*8 2*5 1.0 -1.7 3-79 4*2 4*4 4*5 4* 6 4*1 4*0 3*6 3*9 4#* 3.1 2*9 2*0 1*1 4*1 4-79 4.0 4*1 4.2 4*3 3*^ 3*4 3*3 3*5 3*6 2*7 2*4 1*7 1*0 2.3 0*6 1-80 3*9 4*0 4*1 4*2 3.7 3*6 3*3 3*5 3*5 2*7 2.5 2*0 1*5 2*6 1*8 3*1 2-80 3*1 3*1 3*1 3*1 2.6 2*4 2*0 2*0 1*4 1*1 0*7 -0*1 -0*9 -0*7 -2*2 -3*6 -9*9 3-80 3*0 3*0 3*1 3*0 2*4 2*4 2*0 2*1 2*0 M 0.9 •*2 -0*4 -0*1 -1*1 -1*7 -4*0 2*4 4-80 3*1 3*1 3*1 3*1 2*7 2*5 2*2 2*2 2.1 1*5 1*2 0*7 0*3 0*6 -0*1 -0*3 -1*4 3*2 4*0 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-60 1 , 4 8 8 .2 1,490*6 1,501*9 1 #463*3 1 ,47l>*9 1 ,486t*5 INITIAL QUARTER 12 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST* LOUIS FEBRUARY 19, I f i l G R O SS RATIO SCALE 1973 N A T IO N A L PRO D UCT Q U A R T E R L Y T O T A L S AT ANNUAL R A T E S 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 RATIO 1979 1980 SCALE 1981 SOURCE: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOfl PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED: 4TH QUARTER PREPARED 13 BY FEDERAL R ESER V E BANK OF ST. LO U IS GENERAL RATIO PRICE INDEX* SCALE RATIO 1972-100 195 I 90 185 180 175 I 70 165 I 60 I 55 I 50 I 45 I 40 I 35 I 30 J / s +8. 3Z/ / SCALE I 972-100 195 190 I 85 83.80 180 175 170 Y >65 160 y 155 150 y I 45 140 / I 35 130 : 25 + 10. 9 z / 1 25 y' 12 0 !20 :i5 / / V *7\ 5 *K I 10 105 I 1: 1 10 s' 105 \ 100 I0 0 * 95 95 % 90 90 fST §n. w S ♦ 85 /st enr. '/s if 1973 in If 1974 4TN cn\ '/y 4TN ÛM’ ’tô \ '77 85 1975 1977 1976 1979 1978 1980 1981 *AS USED IN NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS SOURCE: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED! 4TH QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK Of ST. LOUIS IMPLICIT PRICE O E F L A T O R FOR C R O S S N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T ____________C O H P O U N O E D A N N U A L R A T E S O F C H A N G E ____________ TERMINAL QUARTER INITIAL QUARTER 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 2-76 3.7 3-76 4,3 4*9 4-76 5*0 5.7 6.5 1-77 5.2 5.7 6*1 5*7 2-7? 5*5 6*0 6*3 6*3 3-77 5.5 5.? 6.1 6*0 6.1 5.4 4-77 5*6 5*9 6*1 6*1 6*2 5.6 6*3 5*6 5.9 6,1 6.0 6.1 5*6 6*0 _ 1-78 2-78 3-76 4-76 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-60 2-60 3-60 131.06 13 2 . 6 6 136.64 6*8 142.91 5*6 144.93 148*63 7*0 7*0 7*5 8.2 10*6 .6 * 3 6.6 6 *6 6.9 7*1 7*1 7.6 8.0 9*2 7*7 4-76 6*6 6*9 7*2 7*2 7*5 7*4 8.0 8.5 9.4 6*7 9.8 1-79 6*6 7*1 7*3 7*4 7*6 7.7 8.1 6*4 9*1 6*6 9*1 8*4 2-79 6*9 7*1 7*3 7*4 7*4 7.7 8*0 8.3 6*4 6*4 8*7 6.1 7.8 3-7? 6*9 7*2 7*4 7*5 7.6 7*7 8*0 6*3 6*7 8*3 8*5 6.0 7*8 7.8 4-7? 7*0 7*3 7*4 7*5| 7*7 7.6 8*0 6*3 8*6 6*3 8*4 8*1 7*9 8*0 6*1 1-60 7* 2 7*4 7*6 7*7| 7*6 7*9 8*2 8*4 8*4 6*5 8.3 6*3 8*4 6.7 2-60 7.3 7*5 7*7 7.8 8.0 8.1 6*3 8*5 6*6 6*6 8*7 8.6 6.6 9.1 9.5 9.6 3-60 7*4 7*6 7*6 7*9 8*1 6.1 6*4 6*6 ♦*4 6*7 8*6 6*6 6*7 8*6 4*1 4*4 4*5 9.2 4-60 7*6 7t® t»l «♦2 6*3 6.6 6*7 4*6 6.4 9.0 8*9 9*0 9*2 9.4 9.6 9.9 10.0 10.7 1-76 2-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-60 2-60 3-60 3— 76 V* 6*7 3-76 <* • 6*5 6*6 i«4 2-76 6*2 • • 1-76 4-77 164.23 * 6 7 t47_ 171.23 9.3 103.60 INITIAL QUARTER 14 PR6PARE0 6Y FÉDÉRAL F E B R U A R Y 19, 1961 RESERVE BAMt OF ST. LOUIS P E R S O N A L C O N S U H P T I O N EXP E N D I T U R E S IN C O U R E N T O O L L A R S _____________ C O M P O U N O E D A N N U A L H A T E S O F C H A N f c E_______________ B I L L I O N S OF T E R M I N A L __________ ____________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L Q U A R T E R __________________________________ ________ _________________ D O L L A R S QUARTER ANNUAL RATES _________ 1 - 7 6 2-7» 9-76 W 4 l » n 2-77 3-7T 4-77 1-7» 2-76 3-78 4-76 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-60 2-60 3 - B O ___________________ 7 , 4 ___ ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1,0671 *2 3 ~ T 6 ___ * » 1 I 1 0 * » _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________1 . 0 9 4 * 2 M 1 U 7 ll.t Ir T 7 11*1 12.3 19.1 __________ _________________ ___________________ _________________________ 1 * 1 2 7 * 9 Z^Tf— 10*4 11*2 11*4 1 0 * 6 3=17^ 10.5 4^77 l Q *e 11.4 u . 6 11*2 10*5 1W O 1 2 * » ___________ ______________________________________________________ 1 , 2 5 4 . 5 1-7» 10*5 10.9 10*9 10.5 9*» 10*5 10*3 3*7? 11.3 11*7 11.9 11*7 13*4 1.16A.9 7 » 9 ______ 1*4 1-79 11.5 & 7 ? llt2_ lit? 11.9 1*1»4*2 _ ____ _____ __ _________________________________________________________ l t 2 1 Z ^ 4 _ 10*9 7*8 1*276*3 1,369*9 11*5 iiél 12*5 12.4 14.* 12*5 11.9 12*6 12,* *2*9 14*7 1 M 14*3 12-0 11.6 12*1 12.4 12*5 19.0 12*6 12*7 11.0 11*6 J U . 4 11.2 11.7 11.5 \l*3 UfL. 10*7 **9 12.0 11.6 1*416*6 1 >454»1 1*476*0 6*7 3 - 7 9 ___ 1 1 * 4 11.7 11*» 11.7 11.5 11.9 12*1 12.0 12.7 11*» 11*610,7 ____ 1 1 * 6 11.9 12.0 11.9 11.» 12.2 12.4 12.3 13.0 12.3 12.2 11*7 11*9 14*6 1 4 * 7 ___________ 12.2 14.0 13*6 1-M 2 -& L IrW li*0 U t t 4 M 1 4 * 6 ________ _ 1,529.1 ¿ ± ¿62*3 11*7 l M ^ U i l I M 13.0 12.4 12.3 11.9 10*9 U tl llt l J l t l 11*1 11*0 11*9 10*6 1Q.3 9.7 l t«l 1 1 .3 1 1 . 1 1 1 ,2 11*1 _ll*i 11*4 lit? l i t* l l t Q I Q t ? l » t? 10*2 10*9 I Q i O _____ & * S ____ 6 » 4 _ . 1 4 * 3 ________ 1 U 4 11.6 11.7 11.6 11*5 11.7 1 U I 11*7 12*1 11.6 U*5 U*1 H . l U . 9 11*4 1 0 * 5 _____ ? * 6 _ 1 5 * 6 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-76 2-78 3-78 4-76 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 11*0 1 M 12^» 10*6 INITIAL 9.4 12.9 1 Q . 1 _____ 8 ^ 6 ____ 5 * 7 1 ,631*0 -1*0 _ l-«0 1,626^8 I , 6 » 2 .t2 1 6 * 9 ______l t7 4 9 * 2 _ 2-80 9^60 QUARTER P E R S O N A L C O N S U M P T I O N E X P E N D I T U R E S IN 1972 D O L L A R S ____________C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S O f C H A N C E ____________ __________________ BILLIONS OF T E R M I N A L _______________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L Q U A R T E R __________________________________ ____________________________________ D O L L A R S A NNUAL RATES QUARTER 4-79 1-60 2 —6 0 3 —0 0 2-77 4-77 1-78 3-79 2-76 4-76 1-77 3-77 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 2-76 3-76 1-76 2-7* 3*5; ' 817.7 827.1 *-76 4*1 4*7 4-76 4*» 5*4 6.1 1-77 5.1 -■ ,5*6 6*1 6.1 2-77 4*£ 4*7 4.7 4.0 1.9 839.4 851*9 656*0 »66*4 3-7? 4.5 4.7 4.» 4*9 9.4 4*4 4-77 4*9 5*1 5.2 5*0 4*6 6*0 7.1 1-7» 4*4 4*6 4.5 4*2 3*8 4.4 4.1 2-7» 4*» 4.9 5*0 4*8 4*5 5*2 5.3 4*4 7*7 3-7» 4*» 4.9 5*0 4*» 4.6 5*1 5.2 4.5 6*2 4*0 4-78 4*9 5*0 5.0 4.9 4.7 5*2 5.2 4.6 6*0 5.1 5*5 1-79 4.5 4.6 4*6 4*4 4*2 4*6 4.5 4.0 4*7 9.7 3*2 0.9 2-79 4.1 4.1 4.1 3*9 3.4 3*6 3.7 9.1 9*5 2.5 1.7 -0.1 — 1*2 3-79 4*1 4.2 4.1 9.9 3.7 9*9 3*» 3.3 9.7 2*9 2.4 1.4 1.7 4.7 2.0 2.3 4*1 661*3 604*1 1.9 9 0 0 .6 9 1 1 .2 923*4 925.5 922.8 933*4 941>*6 4-79 4.1 4.1 4*1 3.9 9*7 9*9 9*» 9.4 9.7 9*0 l-»0 3*9 3.9 3.» 3.7 9.5 9*6 3*5 9*1 9*9 2*7 2*3 1*7 1.9 3*0 2*2 0*6 2— » 0 3.0 3*0 2*9 2*6 2.4 2*4- 2*2 1*7 1«» 1*0 0.5 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 -2*0 -4.7 -9.» 3-00 3.1 3.1 2.» 2.6 2*6 2*4 2** 2*1 1*5 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.7 -0.3 -1.5 -2.7 5.1 990.» 5.9 • * 3*6 2.7 946*0 2-60 3-80 3*3 3.3 9.2 9*0 2*» ■2*9 2.7 2.4 2*5 2.0 1.7 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.4 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-76 2-76 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 919*3 1 4-00 9*0 9 4 3 »4 INITIAL QUARTER PREPARED BV FEDERAL F E B R U A R Y 19, 1901 RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS G R O S S PRIV A T E D O M ST IC INVESTMENT IM C U R R E N T D O L L A R S ______________ c o M f o w e p a n n u a l r a t e s o f c h a n c e _______________ B I L L I O N S OF POL LARS ANNUAL RATES ___________________________ I N I T I A L Q U A R T E R ____________________________ terminal <HM UTE* 1-76 2-7« 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 H 7 4-77 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 H f 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-50 2-50 3-80 2 ~ 7 6 ____ 1 6 * 2 e*9 4~?6 _ 2 5 W _ 25<U6 2*p _ & * 6 ____ 5 * g _ -i-*i ¿9^ 5 - 2^27____ 2 1 . 9 23*4 1 - 1 7 ___ 2 2 . 0 25.2 1 - 1 7 ____ 1 8 * 6 19*2 311*5 21>2 25*0 45*0 37>I 2 7 *0 29** 25.9 17*9 315*7 22*5 11*5 336.2 _l* t _ ? 5 Q t7 2 r H 1-79 , 3 7 7 17_ 20.4 20*9 23*9 ¿ 2 4 * 7 20*6 15*5 17*2 24*2 54»? Xi*? 18*8 21*1 ¿3*0 17*5 15*2 15*? 17*9 I7 * T t * 9 ________ 380.1 18*0 18*2 20*2 21.8 16*9 14*9 13*5 16*6 16*2 5*0 13*5 3 9 2 <»6 lB.O 18.1 19.9 21.2 1 6 . 9 1 3 . 2 ____1 4 . 0 16*8 16.1 10.9 15.2 17*0 4ö*iL 4 2 1 *7_ 2-60 ¿z39iu _4rfP 14*2 14*115*1 15*7 1 2*2 1 0 * 6 ____ 9 * 4 - 1?*7 15*5 14*4 14*9 1 1 *6 1 0 * 1 ____ ________ 9 * 1 ____ M 11.2 10.9 11.5 11.6 6.6 7*0 5 * 7 ____ 6 * 2 ____4 * 9 9.? 9.3 9*0 9 * 9 ____6 * 9 5*5 4*0 IQtl. W * l M * 6 1-76 3-76 2-76 1 0 * 4 ____ 9 * 3 4*3 2*9 _I Q * 7 ____8 * 0 ____ 6 ^ 6 ____ 5 * 4 ____ 5 * 5 ____ 4 ^ 7 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-78 5*6 M 4 t 4 ____ 0 * 6 _ - 4 » l ~ 1 0 * 6 __________ 5 * 6 ___ * * 1 ____ 4 * 7 ____ L i g _ r 2 « 4 _ - ¿ * 9 ____ 5 * 6 ^ U 7 1*6 -0*5 -3*4 -7.4 -9*6 -0*1 -0*4 -2*3 -5*2 -0*5 2 * * ____ 2 * 0 ____0 ±7 ^ 4 2-7 410*0— 1 1 5 *6_ -9*1 -21*7 3901*9,. -10*6 -10*6 -17*7 -13*4 m*i__ _ ^ 4*P_ ^ 4 * 5 _ _ - 2 . 9 2-79 3—79 4-79 390.1 - 5 . 6 ____ 3 ^ 7 24.2 1-50 2-50 3-50 2-80 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 3-50 INITIAL QUARTER C R O S S P R I V A T E D O M E S T I C I N V E S T M E N T IN 1 9 7 2 D O L L A R S ___________ C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S O F C H A N C E ____________ INITIAL QUARTER QUARTER 1-76 2-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 L-eo 4-79 9*8 3-76 3*6 4— 76 3.4 183.7 -2.3 0*6 3.7 12*8 21*3 41*8 186.3 203.3 *-77 14*0 15*1 21*6 31.6 22.1 3-77 13.9 14*8 19.5 25.3 17.7 1 3 ^ 4-77 14*6 10*5 13*6 16.2 8.7 2*4 213.7 220.6 -7.2 216.5 2 2 * .9 2-78 11.7 12.0 14*2 14.0 11.5 9.0 7.5 15*7 15.0 >-78 9*8 9*5 11*5 12.6 8*4 5*5 5*9 5*0 4*0 4-78 9*5 9*3 10*6 11*5 7*5 5*4 4*0 7.1 4*1 1-79 9*4^ , 9 * * -15*6 11*4 0*1 4*5 5*1 7*8 ■5*7 2-79 5*8 8*7 9*8 10*1 7*4 5*7 4v4 4*7 4*9 t*5 3-79 7.4 7.2 5*0 8.4 5.5 3.8 2*7 4.2 *♦3^ 4-79 5.5 5 . 2 ; ,j5 * 5 - 5.9 3*2 1.4 5.2 1-80 4.7 6*4 »5.0 2*4 0*8 2r$o , 2*4i 1.9 2*1 —♦ *4 }-50 1.7 1*2 1.4 1.5 -1.1 4-50 2*2 1*1^ 2*0 1*9 -0** 3-76 4-76 1-77 1-74 2-74 r, 6 * 9 232U9 22**3 -4**<r 4*4 2r5 2311*8 237*7 7*5 10*6 6** 1*7 — 5*1 i*l 0.5 -4*2 U l -5*9- —5*5 -2*7 -4.4 -9.0 -15.9 -17.8 ^♦*4 0.4 -l#5 -5*4 -3.2 -4*7 -8.2 -11*2 -11.9 -2*1 -3.4 -5.0 -5*0 -7*2 -7*4 -9*2 -2.7 -4.0 -3.7 — 5*5- — 7.5 -7.7 -9.3 -12.3 -14.8 -1*7 -2.8 -2.4 —4*0 — 5*7 -5*7 -4*9 -9*1 -10*8 -11*0 -9.2 -10*4 0*6 12*4 2-77 5-77 4-77 1-75 2-75 5-78 4-78 1-79 4-79 1-50 2-80 3-80 238.7 232.6 -9*8 221.5 -5.7 2 1 8 .3 -12*7 -14*0 -18*0 -18.1 -¿8*8 2-79 -16.0 -15.5 3-79 200.5 -20.0 -10*0 195.3 201*1 INITIAL QUARTER PREPARED BY FCOERAL F E B R U A R Y 19» 1951 RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS G O V ER M H B I T P U R C H A S E S O F 6 0 0 0 S A M O S Bt V I C E S I N C U R R E N T D O L L A R S ----------------- « ^ a y « w _A>tM Av M m y ÇHAM^g_______________ B I L L I O N S OF - P g y ^ E $_ TERMINAL 3 5 6 .1 362 A _ H i- , 5*0 7 « fl 370 >4 t a àA 376*6 ■3-TT - 7 .3 M t .7 I Q iO 1 M 3*7 **_ 7 t2 4 1 ft*4 1-76- 7* t .* « 3 . **3 ^ t » f, _0 *S_____2 * i_ t* r M - , f #4 9.9 10.1 10*3 9*» 10.2 9.7 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.0 10.6 4-76 1-79 2^72_ 8.7 11*+- 12*7 9.9 10.0 9.5 9.9 9.2 10.2— Î#J »*» 9*1 _ 2*3_ 0*1 . ? * V . * »4 _ 9*1 9 .4 9 .5 9 .5 9 .1 9 .3 ____ft*S___ 9*4^ n i 4-79 9*2 9^B 10.1 1Q .3 10*4 10*0 10*3 1 0 .0 1 0 .7 1-00 9*7 10 .3 1 0 .» 1 0 .0 1 0 »? 1 0 «T .1 1 *0 - L 0 .Æ .2=00_____ 9 * 7 1 0 .3 10« » 1 0 *0 . 1 0 » * 10*_7 ._ 1 1 .Q _ 1 0*1 - 1 0 *2 1 0 *3 1 0 .0 1 0 ,? 430*3 13.0 9.2 4 1 * 2 , t.5 9.4 ... 0*31 Bfg 4 2 ? 11 _ n r , 1” ►» o • 6 e.^ 4 1 3 *7 _ k L ■ — 7 > g -■ n r . v "i T * f 1 0 .5 9*4 1 0 .9 _45 1 *3 _ 12.4 9.3 6.3 6.2 »*2 0*5 -4 5 0 .2 . ».2 47?_*4_ 7 .2 ____ Z *» ___ **2L_ 10.5 1 0 .0 1 1 .3 1 3 ,9 16*9_________ 1 1.6 1 1 .» U i* 12*6 1 5 *1 1 0 *2 _ U « 5 _ 1 0 .1 _ U * 4 _ 1 1 *7 l it ? 1 1 «? 12*4 14* 0 - 1 5 * » _ 1 4 * flL 1 1*1 1 0 *0 10*5 _ 1 0 » » . lg * 3 1 0 ^ 7 . 1 1 .6 1 2 .2 ?!»*#_ ?30«0 L O *» 1 0 .1 ______6 .6 2.7 333.5 ,3= tQ ? * 3___ ? * 0 4-BO 9 ,9 1 0 .4 1 0 .7 1 0 .6 1 0 .9 10,7 1 1 .0 1 M H »M 1 *5 11.3 11.2 1 1 .9 1 2 .9 13*7 12*4 1 0 .6 1 0 .9 1 9 .7 , 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-7B 3-7B 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-60 2-00 3-60 2-76 10*-0 49»*4 556*0 IMITIAL QUARTER G O VERNMENT PURCHASES O F G OODS AND SERVICES IN 1972 DOLLARS _______________ Ç O " P ^ N g j ED_ A H > f M A l R A 1 E S O F Ç H A N G E ______________________ TERMINAL ____________________________ I M I H A L QUARTER -------- 1*7» 2-7» 2~7» 3-7» 4 - 7 » _ l- 7 7 _ 2r77 3-77 4-77_ L~70 2-76 BI L L I O N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES quarter 3-7» 4-76 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-BO 2-60 3-30 -3*1 _24>»*4 3 - 7 » a, frj r U t ^ H b » ....... _2»fr* P 2 » » *2 * -7 7 0 .0 1 .1 1 .9 3 .5 ^ -7 7 1 .3 2 ^ 2 .9 3 .B 3 .9 3 .4 4 -7 7 1 .5 2*3 2 .9 3 .6 3*4 3 .2 - 2 1 1 *4 - 2 7 3 .7 3 .0 . 27> *7 _2» * » 2 -7 6 1*1 1 .3 1 .6 3 -.7 !_ _1*7_ 2 .2 .4^7g_ 1 *? 2 *0 1-7 ? U ? 1.? ^ l7 ? _ U3 1 .7 ____! * * _ _ 2 *3 2 .5 2*3 !* • 1 .3 0 .4 2*5 2* ?. 2*1. ?*5 2 * 3 __ 2 * 1 4*0 2 »* ?*+ 2 * 1____ L t ? ____ 1 *6 ___ 2 *7 2 * 2 ___ 2 * 4 ____ 2 * 2 - __ 1 * ? ____ 1 * 2 ____ 1 . * 170*3 5 .5 20CM> 0 *1 M 2.t 2 . 1 ____ 0 * ^ ,230 * 1 ,9*7 _ 2 0 0 *6 2BQt*3 J L * 6 ____ 2 *SL 4=10_ 2*0 2*2 2 *0___ U 9 l 1 .» 1»» 1 .4 2 * 3 ____ 2 . 2 2 * 0 ___ 1 * 1 ____ l*2____ 2 * 2 2*2 1 . 5 ____ 1 * 2 ____ 2 * 2 ____ 3 * » ____ 6*J^_ 2*B 2 . 4 ____ 2 * » 1 .3 1.1 _ 2 * ? _ 2 * 1 , __2 * » . _ 2 * 5 ____ 2 * 4 ____ 2 * 3 _2*4___2*? 2.» 0 .5 l i t __ _2*4__ 2t> 0 .4 ____l*JL _ 265*3 3 * 4 ____4 * 7 ____ »±5____ £ * * _ 1*2__ 4*1_ ¿ .0 2 . 3___ 2*5 1*» l.? 1*9 1.7 1.» 2*0 1.9 1.5 1.» 1 . 6 ____1 * 2 ____ 2 * 1 ____ 1 * 4 - 1 * 3 _ ^ 5 * Q_ 2 0 » *2 _ !* » _ 1*+ 2*0 2*1 2*0 U* !*• U7 2*0— 1*» 1*5 1*7 !*♦ -0 *2 -1*5___ 2*1 2ffft*7 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 3-76 4-76 1-79 1-BO 2-«0 1-76 2 .7 1»» 0*4 _2*0 _ 2 * 1 ____ 2 * £ 1-76 2-7B -5 * 2 4*7 t*2___ 2*4___ 1*» 2-79 3-79 4-79 2911.9 2»^ 3-tO INITIAL QVARTfR 17 PREP ARB) B Y FEDE R A L RESE R V E F E B RUARY 19. 19B1 BA Ml O F ST. D I S P O S A B L E P E R S O N A L I N C O N E I* C U R R E N T D O L L A R S C O N P O U N P E O A I H I A L R A T E S O F C H A N G E ___________ _____________ TBUttüâL_ mm*L B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL R A T E S q u a r t e r _________________ QUARTE* 1-74 2— 76 3—76 4-76 7.» 6*5 6*6 6*4 1-7T 2-77 3-77 4-77 1~70 2 - 1 1 - 3 = 1 3 _fr- 7 6 1-7» 2-79 3-7» 4-7» 1-66 2-60 3~8J> 2— 7 4 1.22»*4 1-7? 1*291^0 3-77 ■ ■ ,»*4 lû^l lûkî 12*4 13*4 77 *.7 10*3 16*» 11*2 12*1 12*3 11*2 ^-7p 9*6 lû*.l r 1 0 - 3 , £ 0 * 6 11*4 11*2 10*1 -»*1 2-78 10.0 10*5 10*6 11*1 11.7 11*4 11*0 10*» 3-76 io « 2 ^0*4 11*0 21.3 11*7 11*7 11.3 11*3 11*1 11*4 12*6 12*0 11*6 1^*2 12*1 1 >332.1 1*440*7 12*6 M 12.6 11*9 12%» 12*» 13*» 12*2 13.0 1 B .1 1 3 *7 4 4-76 10.» lO^f 1-79 10*7 11*2 11*1 11*6 12-2 2-79 1 0 *6 1 1 *0 1 1 *2 1 1 *5 1 1*6 11*6 11*5 11*4 12*1 11.» 11.» 11*0_ 3-79 10*6 11*1 11** 11.4 11*» 11.» 11.6 11*8 12.3 12*2 12*3 11.7 10*6 13*3 4-79 10*6 1 1 *2 11*4 11*4 11*9 1 1 .» 11*7 11.8 12*2 12*1 12.1 |1.7 11*1 1 2 *4 1 1 *6 4 r * L _ - 4 1 *0 J2 * 6 _ 1 2 *4 ”* 4 2 * 3 “ 4 2 * 4 1U3 1 1 *4 1 1 *0 1 2 *0 4 2 *6 ^ 1 1 *» 2-pO 40.4 10*» 11,1 11.2 11.4 11.4 11*2 11*2 3— 60 10*7 11.0 11*2 41.4 11*4 11*5 1 M 1 U 4 4-60 10*6 11*1 11*3 11.4 11*4 11.4 11*5 11.5 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 »531tmQ 1 3 *5 I t T lfl.l 1 2 * i_ 1 1 * 7 1 2 *9 1 2 *5 II»? lit 2 10*7 10*2 1Q*4 _2*6_ 11.5 11.4 11«! 10*7 1 1.1 1 0 * 4 . A P * 3 ---- 1 3 . 3 11*7 11*4 4 1 * 4 11*3 11*9 11*4 \ U Q 1 0 * 9 ___1 0 . 1 13.Q 1 2 * 6 ----- I t 6 » f t » 7 . 1-78 2-7« 4-7# 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 2-«© 3-60 11*4 _ 1 M 3-78 1 3 *5 1.794 a 0*0____4 *4 . 1-40 1.040*6 INITIAL QUARTER DISPO S A B L E P E R S O N A L INCONE IN 19 7 2 D O L L A R S ______ Ç o h p q m n q e o a n n u a l r a t e s q f c h a n g e TERMINAL QUARTER ,_______ B I L L I O N S OF ___________________________________D O L L A R S ANNUAL RATES ____ _______________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L Q U A R T E R 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-74. 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-79 2-79 3-7» 4-79 1-tO 2-60 3-60 2-74 2 .0 ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ?P *# 7 4-76 2*2 2*3___ 2 .5 1-77 2 .0 1 .1 2 .0 1 . 6 _________ _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 916*7 2t 77 2 .1 3*0 3 *3 3 .4 5 .7 ___________ _ _ _ ______ __ ___ ________ _______________________________ »1S*1 ____ ____________________________________________________________________________________________________ 931*4 3-77 3 .5 > .6 4 .2 4 .6 4 .3 7*3__________ __________________________________________________________________________________________946.1 4^77 - 3 .6 4 .1 . 4 .5 5 .0 4 .2 4*4 1-70 . .3 * 4 3 * » , , 4 .2 g~7 f ^3*6___ 3 *6 3-7 f ^ * 7 ___3»* 4-7Q 4 .1 ___ ____________________________________________________________________________________ »4 0 .9 S I ___ 4*0____9 66.6 4 *4___ 4 .» 4 . 7 ___3*2____3 .1 4 « ! ___ 4 *4 3*6___ Jt * fi____4*2____4* 4 4 .6 4*4 4*0 3 .4 3 .5 _ ^ _ _________________ ______________973*5 ___ _____________________________________________________________ »65 .» 4*6 4 *7 4 .2 ___3* » 4*3 4 *7 4*1___ 4 .3 4 *6 4 .5 ___ _4*0___ 3*7 4*0 4 * 1 ___ 4*1___ 3*1__________ ________________________________________ I t W -3*5____3*4 3 *6 3 .» 4 *2 4*6___3 i5 ____3*2___3*3 4f*5 3*6 3 *7 3 *» 4 ,1 3 .» 3 .5 ^3*3 3*4 3 *5 3 *4 3 *6 1*4 3*2____2*t- .1-7 ? .3 *0 ____3 * 2 , 2-7» 3-7» 4-7» A -tQ ___ A 2____3*3 3 *4 2-60 2 .7 ___ 2 .7 2*6 3-00 -2*3 . 2*6 .2 * » 4-60 5 .5 4 » ?____5.2 3 *4 2 *6 3*4 2 .» 2 »»____ à * » 3 .2 ___ 3*3 3 *3 3 *0 3«4_____3*5____2*1____2*0 2 *4 2*4 2 .4 1*3 - 1 *» 1*4____1*2____t * J ____0*2___ 0*3 6*1 1*7____1*3___ 0 *7 2* » ___ 3 *0 _. 2*6 2*4____2*1 M 1 *» 2*6____1*6____1*4____1 .1 3*6 2 .6 2 .5 2 .2 2*2 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-74 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-76 2 -f6 ______________________1 *015* 7 _ 1*0 1*» 2 *» 3*5 0 *6__________ _________________1 * 0 U * 7 _ -1*0 2 .3 ____1*» 2 .» 2 *0 2*2 1 *6____L*3 ____1*» 2*7 2*6 3-76 4-76 Vf — 0*5_________ _________________________________ l » 0Qfr* » _ 3 *0 ___ 2*2___ _2*±___ 2*0___ 1 .4 2 .6 3* 2 3 * 6 ______ _____________________________________________________ 996*0 6*2 1-79 0*1 -4 *» -0*5____4*1_____________ 1*0 1» .3 1 .2 0 .6 0 .6 0*6 2-7» 3-7» 4-79 1-60 3 .5 ____2*2_____ l*02Sr*0 _ 2-60 3-60 I N I T I A L QVARTGR | g PR E P A R » 6Y FEDERAL RESERVE F E 6 R U A R T l». 1»01 BANK. O F ST. LOUIS COiraUTE compounded PROFITS AFTER TAXES a n n u a l ______________ i w n A i TEftfW H A l rates quart of cjunse B I L L I O N S OF P O tL A R S ANNUAL RATES e * ______________ QUART» 4-73 1-76 2-76 1-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-7T 4-77 1-70 2-70 W » 4-7« 1-7» 2-79 3-79 4-7? I-+0 ¿-#0 1«U7 102*3 2=76____ ll* g ____ 5-6 4*0 _9 *è____3*6 2 ,2 4=16 1-77 _ li* t 1 3 .3 2-77 15 .8 14-0 3-77 _1 3 *7 .. 21*3 44*3 19-9 31-6 15-9 1**1 1**1 1?*6 _ 14*5 4-27 __14*1 1-7» 1 3 .0 12.6 11-6 2-78 1 5 .7 103-4 - 0 ,4 114.1 llfl-6 1 6 .7 _£6*2_ 16*0 l+ *9 19*9 11*7 9*3 2*3 12-3 13-7 16-7 9 .9 7 .7 3 .4 4 .6 1 4 .7 15.8 1 7 .5 20.0 15*9 15*7 15*3 22*4 43*3 16*1 15*9 20*0 29*9 17*7 25-6 33-6 29-0 41*3 25*4 31*3 27*5 32*7 2 4 .3 20.0 2 0 .7 24-2 2 0 .7 21-5 13*7 3-78 15.9 15-0 lt - 0 17-5 20-3 16*2 4-78 17-8 17-2 18-3 19-9 22-S 1-79 1 8 .3 17-8 18 .9 2 0 .4 2 3 .0 20-6 20,1 20,6 21*2 19-5 1 9 .9 123 *4 137*2 142.9 2-79 16 .9 16*3 17 .2 IB .4 2 0 .4 1 7 ,7 17*0 17 .9 3-79 1-7-4 16-8 17-T 18-8 20-7 18-3 IB - 5 18-7 20.0 21-2 4-79 15.3 1 4 .7 15.3 1 6 .1 1 7 .6 15*2 15 .0 1 4 .0 16*5 1 0 .3 14*5 13*9 1-80 1 6 .6 16.1 16 .8 1 7 .7 19.2 17*0 17.1 17.1 10*9 20*0 17*9 17.9 2-80 10.1 9 .2 9 .4 9 .7 1 0 .5 6-5 6 .9 7*2 3 .3 1 1 .4 1 0 .7 11*0 11*3 8.0 12*2 10.0 7 .3 3-80 9 .5 8 .9 9 .5 4-75 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 2-77 3-77 4-77 10*0 6.0 1*4 5 .5 A 33,0 164 «6 24*6 11.6 0.0 11.2 0*0 2 .9 1*1 13*7 1 15-5 -4 *0 1*2 2 3 P7 173 .6 4 *4 -11*9 15*1_ 11*0 ..LiA.*2 39*0 l« - # 2 _ -0 *9 -11*0 -20*3 -2 4 .1 -50*8 - 0 .4 -7 *1 -2 4 .3 39a 2-79 3-79 V-79 2-00 4-80 1-77 1-78 2-70 3-70 4-70 14&»3 -2*2 _ - 2 ,7 1-79 1-00 \99.A N.A. INITIAL QUARTER NATIONAL INCOME B A S IS N .A. - NOT AVAILABLE PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. FEBRUARY 1 9, 1981 LO U IS SOURCES OF DATA NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS DATA The December 1980 Survey of Current Business w i l l contain an a r t ic le describing the major aspects of1 the re visio n , summary annual estimates fo r 1978 and 1979, q u arterly estimates for recent quarters, and monthly estimates for October 1979 through November 1980. National Income and Product Tables, 1976-79, a special supplement to the December issue of the Survey, wi l l contain estimates fo r 1976-79 fo r the f u ll set of annual and seasonally adjusted quarterly and monthly national income and product (NIPA) ta b le s. National Income^and Product Accounts of the United S ta te s , 1929-76: S t a t is t ic a l Tables wi l l contain a ll estimates covering e a r lie r years. This publication is expected to be availab le for purchase from the Superintendent of Documents in March 1981. For fu rther information, w rite to the National Income and Wealth D ivision (BE-54) Bureau of Economic A n alysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230. T h e S u r v e y i s a v a i l a b l e fro m m o st d i s t r i c t o f f i c e s o f t h e D e p a rtm e n t o f Com m erce o r fro m t h e S u p e r in t e n d e n t o f D o cu m e n ts, U .S . G o vern m en t P r i n t i n g O f f i c e , W a s h in g t o n , D .C . 2 0 4 0 2 . 19 I N V E N T O R I E S COMPARED WI T H MONTHLY MANUFACTURING AND TRADE 1 9 6 8 1 9 6 9 # RAT I OS 1 9 6 7 BASED ON S E A S O N A L L Y SHADED AREAS REPRESENT .ATEST DATA 1 9 7 0 PLOTTED: 19 7 1 1 9 7 2 1 9 7 3 ADJ USTED DATA. PERIODS DE CEMBER OF BUSINESS 1 9 7 4 1 9 7 5 1 9 7 6 1 9 7 7 SALES* 1 9 7 8 1 9 7 9 S O U R C E •. " . S . DE P ARTMENT 1 9 8 0 OF 1981 COMMERCE RECESSIONS PRELIMINARY PREPARED E i 20 F E DE RAL RE SE RV E BANK ( : . OUI
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