Full text of National Economic Trends : February 1971
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n n n o n H L Economic t r c d d s PREPARED MONTH ENDING: BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK January 31, 1971 OF ST. LOUIS RELEASED: February 22, 1971 Total spending on goods and services rose at a 1.8 per cent annual rate in the strike-dominated fourth quarter of 1970. Real pro duct declined at a 3.8 per cent rate and prices increased at a 5.7 per cent rate from the third to the fourth quarter. The pace of economic activity, which was not strong during any quarter of 1970, slowed con siderably in the final quarter (see table below). Changes in Components of Total Spending, 1970 (In billions of dollars) (annual rates of change in brackets) Consumption Fixed Investment Change in Business Inventories Government Spending Net Exports Total Spending* 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter 10.5 -1.4 ( 7.3) (-4.1) 11.3 - .4 ( 7.7) (-1.2) 7.7 1.5 (5.1) (4.7) 4.9 .8 (3.2) (2.4) -5.6 3.3 .9 ( 6.2) 1.5 -1.2 .6 (-2.2) 2.4 2.6 .1 (4.8) -1.9 2.2 -1.6 (4.0) 7.8 ( 3.3) 11.6 ( 4.9) 14.4 (6.1) 4.4 (1.8) * Components may not sum to totals because of rounding. The slowing of consumer spending to a 3.2 per cent rate in the fourth quarter of 1970 was associated with a strike-depressed level of automobile sales. Fixed investment, which declined in the first two quar ters of last year, rose slightly in the final two quarters. Neither fixed investment spending nor the rate of inventory accumulation were particularly strong in any quarter of 1970. Fixed investment increased only 0.7 per cent in 1970, compared with a 10.5 per cent rise in 1969. The change in business inventories was up $3.5 billion in 1970 after rising $8.5 billion in the previous year. Total Government spending (Federal, state and local) increased 3.9 per cent in 1970, compared with a 6 per cent rise in 1969. State and local government spending increased about 9 per cent in 1970, and Federal Government spending fell 1.6 per cent. Some current economic indicators suggest that a recovery from the strike-depressed fourth quarter of 1970 has already begun. Personal income increased at about a 10 per cent rate from November to January of this year, compared with a 5.5 per cent rise in the preceding year. Pay roll employment was up at a 3.5 per cent rate from November to January, after declining 1 per cent in the year ending in November. Industrial production increased at about a 14 per cent rate in the November-to-January period, compared with a 5.8 per cent decline in the preceding year. 2 t ïït a L c r v r i ïà m e m p l o y m e n t COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE 9-69 10-69 11-69 12- 69 1-70 3-70 ! 4-70 6-70 8-70 11-70 12- 70 2 .2 77,917 78,215 8-69 3.4 4.7 9-6 9 2. 2 2.3 10-69 2.6 11 - 6 9 2.4 12 - 69 2.5 -0.1 78,209 2.8 1. 8 3.8 78,451 2.4 1.7 2.6 1.4 2.5 2.0 2.7 2.1 2.9 78,543 78,728 78,943 1- 7 0 2.6 2.7 2.2 2. 8 2.5 3.1 3.3 2-70 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.8 1. 3 1.2 0.4 3- 7 0 2. 1 2.0 1. 7 2.0 1.6 1.6 1. 2 1. 7 1.7 1.3 1.5 l.l 1.1 0.6 -0.3 1 o 2-70 l ◦ 8-69 1 ! 1° 7- 69 THOUSANDS OF PERSONS 0 r1 o 6-69 7-69 MONTH tji 1 o INITIAL TERMI NAL MONTH 78 , 7 8 1 -2.4 78,969 2.9 0. 2 0.8 78,886 -1.3 78,601 5-70 1. 2 l.l 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 -0.4 -1.3 -0.9 -2.8 -4.3 6-70 0.7 0.5 0. 1 0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -1.1 -1.9 -1.8 -3.4 -4.4 7-70 0.9 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 -0.3 -0.9 -0.6 -1.5 -1.6 -0.2 4.3 8-70 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.9 -0.7 -1.4 -1.4 -0.5 1.6 -1.0 -0.5 0.9 -0.7 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.9 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0. 1 7- 69 8- 69 9-69 10-69 11-69 12-69 1-70 0.7 0.6 0.3 0 h1 O 0.3 9-70 0.9 0.8 11-70 0.7 0.6 12-70 0.6 0.5 1- 71 0.9 6 — 69 78,299 -4.5 ____ 7 8 , 5 7 4 ____ 78,508 78,479 -0.4 -0.7 -1.2 -1.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.6 -0.5 0.3 1. 5 0.6 1.4 3.3 -0.2 -0.6 -0.4 -0.8 -0.7 -0.1 0.8 -0.1 0.2 0.5 -2.1 -0.3 -0.7 -0.5 -0.9 -0.8 -0.3 0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -1.7 0.1 -0.2 -0.0 0.5 1.2 0.7 1.1 1.5 2-70 3-70 4-70 5-70 6-70 7-70 8-70 78 , 6 9 1 78, 550 -1.3 0 . 9 ___ 2 . 4 9— 70 10 - 70 11-70 78,463 6.3 78, 864 12-T0 S T . LO U IS FEBRUARY 8 , 1 9 7 1 paV W l l EMPLOYMENT COMPOUNDSD ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE INITIAL TERMI NAL MONTH 6- 69 7-69 8-69 9-69 10-69 11-69 12-69 1-70 2-70 MONTH 3-70 4-70 5-70 6-70 7-70 8-70 9 - 7 0 10-70 THOUSANDS OF PERSONS 11-70 12- 70 7-69 70,400 8-69 1.3 1.7s 9-69 1.3 1.4 1. 2 2. 1 2.5 2.9 10 - 6 9 70,497 70,567 70,836 11-69 1.6 1.7 1. 8 2.1 12 - 6 9 1.4 1.5 1. 5 1. 6 0.1 1-70 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 0.9 1.6 2.6 2-70 1.7 1.8 1. 8 1.9 1.3 1.9 2. 5 2.4 ^\^ 1. 7 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.4 1.9 2.4 2.3 1.4 1. 5 0.9 3-70 1.4 0.4 7-70 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.5 0. 1 -0.0 -0.5 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.7 0.3 0 .1 70, 808 -0 .5 ^ ^ 0.6 70,842 70,992 0.2 71,163 -1.6 -3.4 -5.1 70,852 -1.3 -2.2 -3.6 -4.6 70,603 -0.6 -0.7 -1.3 -2.0 -3.0 -3.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.4 -2.0 -2.8 -3.1 -2.5 - 1.6 - 2. 1.0 -1.5 -2.0 -2.1 -1.4 -0.4 -0.1 -1.5 -2.0 -2.6 -2.7 -2.3 2.0 -2.5 -2.6 -2.2 -1.8 -1.9 -1.9 -1.5 -1.9 -1.9 -1.4 -1.0 -1.0 -0.6 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.5 -0.5 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 v-0.9 -1.0 -1.1 11-70 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -1.0 -1.0 -1.2 -1.5 12- 7 0 -0.1 - 0*1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 -1.1 7-69 71,256 1.6 -0.6 0.2 ~6—69 ^ 0.0 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 8-69 9-69 10-69 11-69 - - -0.7 0.0 9-70 0.1 2. i Y 1.4 10-70 0. 1 71,135 - 0.6 -0.5 - -0.7 12-£<5— r=7i5— - 1.0 -1.3 — T=7B— -1.3 -1 .3 % -0.8 - -0.3 — 5-TÜ— 6-70 2.0 70,531 - 70, 182 2.0 0.2 0.2 7-70 8-70 - 70 ^546 70, 414 70 , 0 8 5 7 0 , 264P -1.5 0.2 1.7 9-70 10-70 - 3.5 3.9 70,487P 11-70 I 2 - T 0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ nnrnnriroim ---------------------------------- :----------------------------------------------PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FETJERAU"RESERVE-"BA H I T D F T T . 1 O U IS FEBRUARY 8 , 1 9 7 1 3 Em ploym ent Ratio S c a l e Ratio S c a l e Source: U.S. D ep artm ento f Labor * Data for Total Employment revised from January 1969. Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. Latest data plotted:Uanuary Prepared by Federal Reserve Bonk of St. Louis 4 I NDUS T RI AL PRODUCTI ON C OMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMI NAL____________________________________________________ _________________I N I T I A L MONT H _______ _______________ ____________________ MONTH 7-70 7-$9 8- 69 9 - 6 9 1 0 - 69 1 1 - 6 9 1 2 - 6 9 4-70 5-70 6-70 8-70 9 - 7 0 10-70 3-70 6-69 1-70 2-70 ... 195 7 - 5 9 = 100 11-70 12- 70 174.6 7- 69 6.4 8-69 2. 1 -2.0 174.3 9- 69 0.5 -2.4 173.9 10-69 -1.0 -3.4 -4.1 - 5. r 17 3 . 1 1 1 - 69 -3. 1 -5.4 -6.5 -8 ,3 -11.2 171.4 12-69 -3.0 -4.7 -5.4 -6.3 -6.7 -2.1 1-70 -3,2 -4*8 -5,3 -5,9 -6.1 -3.5 -4.8 2- 70 -2.8 -4.0 -4.3 -4.6 -4.4 -2.1 -2.1 0.7 3-70 -2.0 -3.0 -3.1 -3.2 -2.8 -0.5 0.0 2.5_ 4-70 -2.4 -3.3 -3.5 -3.6 -3.3 -1.7 -1.6 -0.5 -l.l -6. 1 5-70 -2.9 -3.8 -4.0 -4.2 -4.0 -2.8 -2.9 -2.4 -3.5 -7.1 6-70 -2.8 -3.6 -3.8 -3.9 -3.7 -2.6 -2.7 -2.2 -3.0 -5.3 -4.8 -1,4 7-70 -2.4 -3. 1 -3.2 -3.2 -3.0 -1.9 -1.9 -1.4 -1.8 -3.3 -2.3 0.7 2.9 8- 70 -2.4 -3.1 -3,2 -3*2 -3.0 -2.0 -2.0 -1.6 -2.0 . — 3,2.. -2.4 -0.5 0.0 t 171. 1 170.4 170.5 4.3 — 3.7% 171.1 -8.1 169.0 170.2 1 6 8. 8 -6.9 169.2 -2.8 9-70 -3.7 -4.3 -4.5 -4.7 -4.6 -3.9 -4.1 -4.0 -4.7 -6.1 -6.1 -5.6 10-70 -5.0 -5.7 -5.9 -6.2 -6.2 -5.8 -6.1 -6.3 -7.1 -8.7 -9.1 -9.3 -11.1 -15.3 168.8 -11.5 -19.4 165.8 162.3 - 2 1 . 0 - 2 2. 11-70 -5.0 -5.7 -5.9 -6.1 -6.2 -5.8 -6.1 -6.2 -7.0 -8.3 -8.6 -8.7 -10.1 -13.0 \ 161.5 12 - 7 0 -3.8 -4.3 -4.5 -4.6 -4.5 -4,0 -4,1 -4. 1 -4,6 -5,5 -5.4 -5.0 -5.6 -7.2 -8.3 -4.3 6.5 2 0 .2 ^ \ 1 6 4 . OP -4.0 -3.4 -3.7 -4.8 -5.2 -1.3 7.1 14 . 1 1 6 5 . IP 4-70 5-70 6-70 7-70 8-70 9-70 10 - 7 0 11-70 1- 71 -3.2 -3,7 -3,8 -3.8 -3.7 -3.2 -3.2 -3. 1 -3.5 -4.2 6-69 7-69 8-69 9-69 10-69 11- 69 12-69 1- 70 2-70 3-70 INITIAL -16.2 -14.6 - ,8 8.4 1 12-70 MONTH P - PRELI MI NARY PREPA RED BY FEDERAL RESERV E BANK OF S T . FEBRUARY 17, 1971 L OUI S 5 Industrial Production Ratio S c a l e Ratio S c a l e Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. Latest data plotted: January preliminary Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 6 R E T A I L SJlI r COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMI NAL MONTH MONTH INITIAL A I L L I ONS OF is m jL / m 5-69 6-69 7-69 8-69 9-69 10-69 11-69 12 - 69 1-70 2-70 3-70 5-70 4-70 6- 70 7 - 70 8-70 9-70 11- 70 10- 70 29,371 6-69 -0.6 7-69 -5.9 -10. 9 8—69 -0.5 -0. 5 11 .1 9-69 -1.3 -I. 5 3 .5 -3.5 5.7 15.9 29, 090 29,346 29,259 10-69 1.9 2. 6 7 .5 11-69 0.6 0. 8 4 .0 1.7 4.4 -5.9 12- 69 0.2 0. 3 2.7 0.7 2.2 -4.0 -2.1 1-70 0.9 1. 2 3 .3 1.8 3.2 -0.7 2.0 6. 3 2- 70 2.7 3. 1 5 .3 4.4 6.0 3.7 7.1 12. 0 29,620 29,471 29,419 29,570 18.0 29,980 1- 70 1.7 2. 0 3.7 2.7 3.7 1.5 3.4 5. 3 4.8 -6. 9 4—TO 4.3 4. 8 6 .7 6.1 7.6 6.3 8.9 11. 8 13.7 11. 7 34.0 c i IT 3.8 4. 2 5.9 5.3 6.4 5.2 7.1 9. 1 9.8 7. 1 15.0 6-70 3.6 3. 9 5.4 4.8 5.8 4.6 6.2 7. 6 7.9 5. 5 10.0 29,801 j 30, 536 30, 502 -0.4 0.6 \ 30,518 7-70 3.9 4. 3 5.6 5.2 6.1 5.0 6.5 7. 8 8.0 6. 1 9.6 2.6 4.5 8 .6 ^ s 8-70 3.8 4. 1 5.4 4.9 5.7 4.7 6.0 7. 0 7.1 5. 4 8.1 2.4 3.7 5.3 2 9-70 3.8 4. I 5 .3 4.8 5.6 4.7 5.8 6. 7 6.7 5. 2 7.4 2.8 3.8 4.9 3.1 10- 70 2.7 3. 0 4 .0 3.5 4.0 3.1 3.9 4. 6 4.4 2. 8 4.3 -0.0 0.3 0.2 -2 .5 -2.4 -5 .0 -7.2 30, 729 0 .5 % 30,781 4 . 1 ^ ^ 30, 885 -4 .7 -12.8 30, 534 11-70 1.9 2. 0 2.9 2.3 2.8 1.8 2.5 2. 9 2.6 I. 0 2.1 -1.8 -1.9 12 - 7 0 2.3 2. 4 3 .3 2.8 3.2 2.4 3.0 3. 5 3.2 1. 8 2.9 -0.5 -0.3 -0.5 -2 .2 -3.3 -5.6 -1.8 5-69 6-69 7-69 8-69 9-69 10-69 11-69 12- 69 1-70 2-70 3-70 4- 7Ô 5-70 6-70 7 - 70 8-70 9-70 10- 70 IN IT IA L 30, 208P -12.5 -12.1 ^ 30,441P 11- 70 MONTH P - P R E t I MINARY LOUIS PREPAPED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . FEBRUARY 11, 1971 COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF iCHANGE INITIAL TERMI NAL MONTH B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS MONTH ANNUAL RATES 6-69 7- 69 8-69 9-69 10- 69 11-69 12-69 1-70 2-70 3-70 4-70 5 - 70 6-70 7-70 8-70 9 - 7 0 10- 70 i l - 7 0 12- 70 752. 7 T —69 11.0 8-69 10.3 9.6 9-69 9.4 8.6 758.5 1 X 7.5 763.1 7.6 6.7 5 .8 ^v^ 8.0 7.3 6.5 6.0 6.3 7.7 7.0 6.4 6.0 6.1 5.9 ^V ^ 7.4 6.8 6.2 5.9 5.9 5.7 5.6 *^^ 777.8 7.2 6.6 6.2 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.7 781.5 10-69 8.5 11- 69 12 - 6 9 1-70 2-70 766.7 770.6 N v 774. 3 5.9 787.6 1-70 7.5 7.0 6.7 6.5 6.7 6.8 7.0 7.8 4-70 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.8 10.5 11.4 12.8 15.3 20.3 31.» *5-70 7.8 7.5 7.3 7.3 7.5 7.7 8.1 8.7 9.6 9.6 - 9 . 0 N 6-70 7.0 6.6 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 5.5 -5.7 ^ + 6 .1 % 806.0 799.7 -2 s- 798.2 ........................... 7-70 7.0 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.8 6.1 -1.3 2.7 7 . 9 ^ ^ 803.3 8-70 6.9 6.6 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 5.8 0.1 3.4 6.3 4.7 ^s^ 806.4 9-70 7.0 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.8 6.3 1.8 4 •6 7.0 6.6 8.5 811.9 10-70 6.3 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 4.9 1.0 3 .1 4.5 3.3 2.6 809.9 11-70 6.2 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.* 5.3 4.8 1.4 3.3 4.4 3.5 3.1 0.5 4 . 1 ^ 12-70 6.3 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.1 2.1 3. 8 4.9 4.3 4.2 2.8 5.8 7.5 1- 71 6.6 6.3 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 5.8 3.2 4.9 5.9 5.6 5.7 5.1 7.9 9.8 6-69 7-69 8-69 9-69 10-69 11-69 12- 69 1-70 2-70 3-70 4-70 5 - 70 6- 7 0 7-70 8-70 812.6 N 12.M 8 1 7 . 5P 825.4P 9 - 7 0 1 0 - 7 0 11 - 7 0 12 - 7 0 IN IT IA L MONTH P - PRFLI MI NARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . L O U IS FEBRUARY 12* 1*71 7 R e ta il S a le s Ratio Scale Ratio Seal« Source: U.S. Departmentof Commerce Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. Latest data plotted: December Prepared byFederalReterveftankofSt.Louis Personal Income 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 Source: U.S. Departmentof Commerce Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. Latest data plotted: January preliminary Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 8 GROSS NATIONAL FBODUCT IN CURRENT OOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE________ ---------------------- *— OtJ ARTFR 1-66 2-66 3-66 4-66 1-67 2-67 3-67 4-67 1-68 7.8 •*— 6 6 7.4 7.0 4-66 7.6 7.5 3-68 8. 1 6*2 _ 5.6 .5,0 -67 6.0 5.5 5.1 V 3.6 5.3 _6^2____ 6 . 0 1-70 2-70 3-70 784.5 5.3 7.0 5.9 7.2 1-6 9 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.6 7.8 2-68 7.5 7.4 7.5 7.4 8.6 9.4 9.6 10.6 11.6 «.5 9.2 9.4 9.9 10.0 1- 68. _ L l 6____ 1 . 6 _2 a 6_ 7.6 4 —6 8 J L a J i ____ 7 . 5 _L»_6_ JU 3 815. 9 8 . 2 ____ L*7_ 8.7 V 858.1 875.8 +7.8%- 9.3 ____ 8*4_ *1__ a*i__ slmJ. 907.6 -1-69 .7*6 2-69 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.5 8.2 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.4 7.6 7.4 3-69 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 8.2 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.4 7.8 7.6 ____ I mJ l - 2 * 2 _____ 7 . 3 7 . 3 _____ Ia_fl_____ _________ â ^ û _ 7 ,1 ____ 7*_Q____Zjl I ____ _______ 7 * 4 ____ Z jl6____1 *5 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6 , 6____ 6. 6. 1-66 4-69 ....................- 6.3 - 4-70. 3-69 770.7 6.4 1 - 7 0_ 2-69 774.4 1.9 ^ _6*6 7.1 1-69 r \ + 3 . 6 % f ^ _ 4l- 69- 4-68 755.9 1-67 3 - 67 ANNUAL RATES 2-68 743.3 2-66 _ 4 -6 7_ B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS 2-66 7.2 ____ L lL_ 7.7 7.9 8.4 942.6 6.8 6.5 6.2 951.7 5.9 5.6 971.1 985.5 5.7 6.6 6.1 6 . 8 _____ 1 * 2 _____ 1 * 4 _____7 * 3 _____ 7 , ? 923.7 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.1 6.9 6 . 3 _____6 0 _____ 5_^9_ 5.6 6.6 6.5 6.8 6.9 6.7 6.7 6.4 5.9 5.6 5.4 5.1 4.7 4.0 4.0 4.2 3.9 3-66 4-66 1-67 2-67 3-67 4-67 1-68 2-68 3-68 4-68 1-69 2-69 3-69 4-69 1-70 2-70 INITIAL i.e| 989.9 3-70 QUARTER PREPARED EE BR1 J A RY BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E BANK O f S T . L O U I S 1 6 , 1 9 7 1 _______________________________________________ GROSS N A T I O N A L PROOUCT I N C O N S T A N T 1 9 5 8 DOL L ARS ___________ C O M P O U N O F O A N N U A L R A T E S OE C H A N G E ______________ TERMINAL QUARTER INITIAL QUARTER INITIAL QUARTER B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL R A T E S PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . L O UI S FEBRUARY 16» 1971_______________________________________ 9 Demand and Production Ratio S c a l e Trillions of D o llars Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates Seasonally Adjusted Ratio S c a l e Trillions of D o lla r s 1.1 1.0 .9 .8 L lG N P in current dollars. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce 12GNP in 1958 dollars. Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. Latest data plotted: 4th quarter Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FI NAL SAL E S IN CURRENT DOLLARS c omp q u n o f o a n w j ai . p a t e s of c h a n g e INIT IAL 3- ^ 4-66 1-67 2—67 3—67 4-67 1- 6 8 BI L L I O N S OF HOLLARS ANNUAL RATES QUARTER 2-68 3-68 4-68 1-69 2- 6 9 3-69 4-69 1-70 2-70 3-70 72 7 . 1 74 4 . 0 4- 6 6 6.1 1- 6 7 6.5 2- 67 6.3 3 - 6 7 ... 6.8 6.6 750.8 r \ 7 6 4. 8 5. 7 7. 7 7. **... 6 .** 7.9 8.2 7. 1 6. 5 7.4 7.3 780.0 ......................... . 792.2 , 80 5 . 9 3-70 _ 4 t 70. 7. 1 7. 3 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.4 6.9 6.7 6.3 6.4 6 .2 5.9 5.7 5.4 5.1 1-68 2-68 3- 6 8 4- 68 1-60 2-69 ... S*3.._ ... .7,0 6.9 7. 1 7. 0 6.9 7. 0 7.0 2-66 3- 6 6 4-66 1- 67 2-67 3- 6 7 4- 67 1 -66 6.2 7.3 INITIAl 5. 8 5.6 5.0 4.7 5.0 4.7 4.4 4.0 3.8 3- 6 9 4-69 1- 7 0 2- 70 5.2 9 8 0. 0 2.6 1 986.3 3-70 QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL » ES F » VE BANK OF S T . LOUI S FEBRUARY 16, 1071 FI NAL SAt FS IN rONSTANT 1958 DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL PATES OF CHANGC XERMINAL QUARTFP INITIAL - 2-66 2-66 1 V O. q 3-66 4- 6 6 1- 67 2-67 3-67 4-66 ’ .3 3. 1 0.2 J . 1- 67 . 3.0 3.7 2.6 5.0 7- 6 7 3.6 4.3 3. 8 5.6 6.1 3- 6 7 3. 3 3.9 3. 3 4.4 4.0 3.4 2.1 2. 3 5. 1 4.8 6.2 3. 6 4-69 1-70 2- 70 3-70 4.8 4.8 4.5 4,2 4.0 4.5 4.4 _A*_L 4.7 4.0 4.4 4.4 4.1 ____ 4* 4. _4*0____ 3*8____4*2____4*1_ 3- 6 9 _____ 3, 5 3.6 - A=60_____ L lA_ 670.6 5. 2 674.4 69 1 . 1 10. 3 \ - A jl I ______ ___________ 4 * 7 ______f u h ______ 4 * 3 ______ _3 «.7_ 3-69 1 A If}/ ^\+4.4% 3.8 2-6 9 2-69 667.3 2 .0 5. 1 3.9 1- 6 9 657.5 3. 1 1- 69 4-68 649.5 . 1-6 8 ... ... 4*0 _ 4_*5 ..... 4 . 3 - 1 »? 3- 6 8 6 3 9. 6 6, I 2-6 9_ 2-6« 64 9 . 1 **.4 .3.7._ 1- 68 \_.+2.3% 3-66. 4-67 4-67 R I t L I O N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES QUARTER 6.1 2. 3 695.9 4.1 5.5 70 5 . 2 3.6 3.9 700.0 5. 1 4.5 4.9 3. 1 4.1 ------- 3.3 3.8 3.9 3. 3 3.5 3.7 -3.1.6 3. 5 3.3 3.4 2. Q 3.5 2.2 2.9 2 . 6 ____2*6____ 2j j ]____ 2 . 0 716. 1 +1.3% 1. 3 _ J ^ 3 ____ U O ____ K 2 3.0 3.1 2.2 1.6 1.5 0.9 7 - ^ 0 ....... 2. 9 3.1 2.9 3. 1 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.8 1.9 1. 3 1.2 0.6 3- 7Q 2.9 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.6 1. 8 1.7 1. 7 1,1 Q .6 0.4 0.3 -0.0 .2 •5_. _ 2 . 6 2.4 2.5 2.3 2. 1 2.1 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 - 0.8 -l.o -1.3 -3 .l) 3-66 4-66 1- 6 7 3-67 4 -6 7 1-68 2-68 3-68 4-68 1-69 2-69 3-69 4-69 1-70 2-7 0 3-70 1-70. .. 4- 7 0 . 3,1_ 2. 3 1- 6 6 3.3 2-66 2-67 IN ITIA L 717. 1 QUARTER PRFPAREO BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS FEBRUARY 16, 1971_____________________________________ 11 Final Sales Total Spending Less Changes in Business Inventories Ratio Scale Trillions of Dollars Ratio S c a l e Trillions of D o lla r s Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates Seasonally Adjusted 1.1 1.0 .9 .8 .7 .6 .5 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. Latest data plotted: 4th quarter Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 12 CONSUMER PRI CE INOEX * COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE INITIAL terminal MO N T H 7-69 9- 69 8-69 5.6 5.6 5.6 9-6 9 5.6 5.6 5.6 10-69 5.3 5.2 5.0 4.4 1 1-69 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 12-69 5,9 6.0 6.1 5.7 5.7 1-7 0 2-70 3-70 10-69 11-69 12-69 1-70 2-TO 4-70 5-70 6-70 7-70 8-70 9-70 10 - 7 0 11-70 12- 70 110. 7 111.2 111.6 112.2 6.6 7.7 112.9 4.3 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.0 6-69 7-69 8-69 9-69 10-69 113.3 6.2 113.9 6.3 114.5 11-69 12-69 1-7C 2-70 3-70 INITIAL NOT 1967 * 100 MONTH 3-70 110.2 7-69 CD 1 vO 6- 69 SEASONALLY 4-70 5- 70 6-70 7-70 8-70 9- 70 10-70 11-70 12 - 7 0 MONTH ADJUSTED PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE FEBRUARY 19, 1971 BANK OF S t . L OUI S WHOLESALE PRI CES COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE INITIAL TERMI NAL MONTH 6 — 69 7-69 8-69 9-69 10 - 6 9 11-69 12- 69 1-70 2-70 3-70 MONTH 4-70 1967 5-70 6-70 7-70 8-70 9-70 100 1 0 - 70 1 1 - 7 0 1 2 - 7 0 ..ir t a .. 105,7 -a-&5L 1 0 6 ,5 1 0 6. 1 IQ-69 A.6 ■A^L_ 5.>.Q____ 5*2. 11-69 12-69 A.2 10 7. 1 7 <-Q. 5.aA „ 107.4 3.4 10 7 . 8 4« S____ A a.9. 5.0 5«Q____ 5* 2 . 5.1 5 . 0 ____ 5*0 . 1- 7 0 4-2 4.6 4-6 4. 2 4-6 A a.1 _A*2_ 5.7 108.3 -5-.1____ 4 . 5 108.7 -A^L. 4 *.5____ 4^2____ 4^3____ 4 . 2 108.9 _1*A____ 2 * 2 3 . 7____ 1^A_. 4.5 IN ITIA L - 10- g«3 MONTH *___NOT SFASflNAI 1 Y ADJ USTED PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . FEBRUARY 18, 1971 LO UIS 13 Rati Prices Scale R a t i o Sc: a le 196; 100 130 130 125 125 120 120 115 115 110 110 105 105 100 125 120 95 115 90 110 105 105 100 100 95 95 90 90 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 Source: U.S. Department of Labor ercentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated, atest data plotted: January Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis M WHOLESALE PRI CES« ALL COMMODITIES» * COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE INITIAL TERMI NAL MONTH 6-69 7-69 8-69 9-69 1 0 - 69 11-69 12-69 1-70 3-70 2-70 1967 * 100 MONTH 4-70 5-70 6-70 7-70 8-70 9-70 11-70 12- 70 10-70 1. 1 106.8 8-69 1. 1 l.l 106*9 9-69 1.5 1.7 2.3 10-69 2.0 2.3 2.8 3.4 11-69 3.2 3.7 4.6 5.7 8.1 12-69 3.4 3.9 4.6 5.3 6.3 7-69 107.1 107.4 10 8 . 1 108.5 4.5 109.3 1-70 4.2 4.7 5.5 6.3 7.3 6.8 9.2 2-70 4.2 4.7 5.3 5.9 6.6 6.1 6.8 3-70 4.0 4.4 4.9 5.3 5.7 5.1 5.3 3.3 2.2 4-70 3.6 3.9 4.2 4.5 4.7 4.0 3.9 2.2 1. 1 0.0 5-70 3.5 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.3 3.7 3.6 2.2 1. 5 1. 1 2.2 6-70 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.1 3.5 3.3 2.2 1. 6 1.5 2.2 2.2 2.9 2.6 2.8 3.7 4.4 7-70 3.6 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.4 3.9 3.8 109. 7 4.5 109.9 109.9 _____ 1 1 0 . 1 110.3 6.7 110.9 8-70 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.0 2.8 1.9 1. 5 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.1 -4.2 9-70 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.2 3. 1 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.4 2.5 2.6 0.5 5.6 10-70 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.4 2.9 2.8 2.1 1. 8 1.7 2.0 2.0 1.9 0.4 2.7 0.0 11-70 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.6 2.4 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.3 0.0 1.5 -0.5 -l.l 1.5 1.4 1.3 0.2 1.4 0.0 0.0 1.1 2.3 2.3 _ U6 2.8 2.2 2.9 5.0 ~6- 70~ T - 7 0 8-70 12-70 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.5 2.3 1.7 1.4 1.3 1-71 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3 2.9 2.8 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.3 6-69 7-69 8-69 9-69 10- 69 11-69 12 - 69 1-70 2-70 3-70 4-70 _____ 110.5 111.0 111.0 110.9 111.0 9.0 _____ 1 1 1 . 9 11- 70 12- 70 I N I T I A L MONTH NCT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED_____________________________________________________________ » PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . FEBRUARY 17, 1971 WHOLESALE PRICES - FARM PRODUCTS* AND PROCESSED FOODS AND FEEDS* " COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE INITIAL TERMI NAL MONTH 6-69 7-69 7-69 0.0 8-69 -4.8 -9.4 8-69 9- 6 9 10-69 11-69 12 - 69 1-70 2-70 3-70 MONTH L OUI S 1967 * 100 4-70 5-70 6-70 7-70 8-70 9-70 10-70 11-70 12-70 109.8 ________________ 9- 69 -3.9 -5.9 -2,2 10-69 -3.0 -3.9 -l.l 0.0 11-69 0.4 0.5 4.1 7.4 15 108.9 108.7 108.7 . 110.0 12-69 1.5 1.8 4.8 7.2 11.0 6.7 1-70 4.1 4.8 7.9 10 . 6 14.3 13.8 110.6 21.4 112.4 1 0 . 6 ... X Z f 5 . 4 jl4_ 2-70 4.1 4.7 7.3 9 . 3 __ LL*_1_ 3— 70 3.8 4.3 6.4 7.9 9.5 8.1 8.6 4-70 2.2 2.4 4.0 4.9 5*8. 4^.Q_ 3 . 3 .._ -2L*_1.. - 5 . 2 - 1 1 . 1 5 —7 0 l.U 1.5 2.8 3.5 4.0 2.2 1.3 -3.2 -5.6 -8.7 -6 .3 6 -7 0 1.7 1.9 3.1 3.7 4.2 2.7 2.0 -1.5 -2.9 -4.2 -0.5 5.5 7- 70 3.0 3.3 4.5 5.2 51.8, 4.7 4.4 8- 70 1.1 1.2 2.1 2.5 2 . 8 _ Ì 4 L . 5 , .... 9-70 2.0 2.2 3.1 3.6 3.9 2.8 1C— 70 0.3 0.4 1. 1 1.4 1*5- 0.3 11- 70 0.1 0.1 0. 7 _ 0.9 . 1.0 -0*1 12-70 -0.3 -0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 -Q .fr 1- 71 0.5 0.5 1.2 1.4 U5_ 6-69 7-69 8-69 9-69 10-69 2.4 2.7 1.8 _ 112.8 1. 1 112.9 111.8 111.2 1.3 1,3 5.8 12.5 . .."Ji t 8 _ - 2 , . 8 -3.6 -1.6 0.0 111.7 19.9 113.4 -2 .7 -20.9 111.2 0.3 -0.3 -0.5 1.7 3 .8 -0.3 . - 2 . 5 -3.3 -3.9 7 -1.9 -3 .7 -10.5 -4 .8 -21.9 -Ô.*7. -2.7 -3.4 -4.0 -2.9 -2.3 -3.8 -9.0 -4 .6 -13.6 -4.3 -1.2 -3.0 -3.7 -U.2 -3.3 -2.9 -4.3 -8.5 -5 .0 -11.2 -5.3 -6.4 _Q*S ... ... 0 . 1 -1.5 -2.0 -2.3 -1.3 -0.7 -1.5 -4.7 -l.l -5.0 1.5 4.4 11- 69 12-69 1-70 2-70 3-70 4-70 5-70 6-70 7-70 8-70 9-70 3.3 -4.2 16.2 112.6 110.3 109.9 109.3 16.5 110.7 10- 70 11 - 7C 12 - 70 I N I T I A L MONTH ♦ NCT SEASONALLY ADJ USTED PREPARED BY FEDERAL R ESERVE'BANK OF S T . LO U IS FEBRUARY 17» 1971 ]5 General Price Index* Ratio Scat« Ratio ScaU 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 *As u*ed in National Income Account* Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. 1969 1970 1971 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce Latest data plotted: 4th quarter Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis I M P L I C I T PRI CF OEH ATOR FOR GR OSS NATI ONAL PRODUCT _______ COMPnitNOFH ANNUAL RATES OF C H A N G E ____________ INITIAL QUARTER QUARTFR 1- 66 2- 6 * 3-66 4-66 1-67 2-67 3-67 4-67 1-6« 2- 6 8 3-68 4-6« 1- 6 9 2-69 3-69 4-69 1-70 2-70 3-70 11 3. 5 2- 6 6 ____ 4, 0 ^-66 3. 8 3.6 4-66 3.6 3.4 _L~6 7 2 - 67 ?-67 3.4 ^.2 1. 1 ?._Q_ 3. 3 1 -6 6 3,, ? ?-66 114.5 115.4 ^.2 3.0 116. 2 2. « 2.7 2.4 2. 1 ..3. 1 ... 3 , 0 3.1 3-66 4-6 6 1 -6 7 11 6 . 8 4.2 118.0 ^ 1- 6 0 2-6« IN tf lÀ L 3- 6 % 4-6 1-6 9 2-6 9 3-6 9 4-69 1-70 2-7 0 3-70 6UÀ'*TÉ* P*FPA«FO AY FEDERAL RFSF«*VF RANK OF S T . LO UIS JANUARY 18, 1971______________________________________ Inventories Compared With Monthly Sales* *Ratios based on seasonally adjusted data. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce Shaded areas represent periods of business recessions as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Latest data plotted: December P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k of St. Louis
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