Full text of National Economic Trends : December 2001
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December 2001 NationalEconomicTrends the gap has already been closed. In contrast, for those without a high school diploma, only about one-third of the gap between current unemployment and 1994 unemployment has been closed. At this early stage, it is not possible to explain why this has been the case. One explanation is that this downturn has simply hit those industries where the highly educated are more likely to work. So far, the downturn has affected the telecommunications, computer services, and airline industries relatively more than traditional blue-collar industries such as home construction and automobile manufacturing. It is perhaps too early, however, to know how unemployment is eventually going to be distributed: job losses for the less educated might still be looming. It is also possible that the extremely long expansion of the 1990s has enabled more of the less educated to weather the storm because the long economic expansion enabled them to gain the skills, experience, and seniority to make it less likely for them to become unemployed now than in the past. A Recession for the Educated? —Howard J. Wall 1 These trends are surveyed in William Poole and Howard J. Wall, “Price Stability and the Rising Tide: How Low Inflation Lifts All Ships,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, The Regional Economist, January 2000, pp. 5-9. Current Unemployment Rates Relative to 1994 Oct-00 Jan-01 Apr-01 Jul-01 Nov-01 0.0 College Graduates Percent In September and October of 2000, the aggregate unemployment rate bottomed out at 3.9 percent, having fallen steadily from its June 1992 level of 7.8 percent. This halving of the unemployment rate substantially improved the employment opportunities for groups— such as the less educated, teenagers, and blacks—that historically have had the highest unemployment rates.1 With the steady softening of labor markets over the past year—the unemployment rate hit 5.4 percent in October 2001—the question arises as to whether these traditionally disadvantaged groups have been bearing the brunt of the economic downturn. After all, the anecdotal evidence suggests that bad economic times hit these groups hardest. Looking at the unemployment data across education levels, however, it appears that, so far, it has instead been the most-educated group whose recent employment gains have eroded first. Take 1994 as a reference point, a year during which the aggregate unemployment rate fell below 6 percent, which was thought by many at the time to be the natural rate of unemployment. In that year, the average unemployment rates for college graduates, those with high school diplomas but no college, and those without high school diplomas were 2.6 percent, 5.3 percent, and 9.8 percent, respectively. By September 2000, these rates had fallen to 1.9 percent, 3.4 percent, and 6.2 percent. Since then, as the aggregate unemployment rate has risen, so have the unemployment rates for these three educational categories. The accompanying chart tracks the movement since October 2000 in the three-month moving averages of the unemployment rates for the three education levels, relative to where those rates were in 1994. For the most-educated group, those with college degrees, the unemployment rate has already reached its 1994 level; for those with a high school diploma but no college, about two-thirds of –1.0 HS Diploma, No College –2.0 No HS Diploma –3.0 –4.0 SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System. w w w.stls.frb.org/research TableofContents Page 3 Economy at a glance 4 Output and growth 7 Interest rates 8 Inflation and prices 10 Labor markets 12 Consumer spending 14 Investment spending 16 Government revenues, spending, and debt 18 International trade 20 Productivity and profits 22 Quick reference tables 27 Notes and sources Conventions used in this publication: 1. Shaded areas indicate recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. 2. Percent change refers to simple percent changes. Percent change from year ago refers to the percent change from the same month or quarter in the previous year. The percent change at annual rate shows what the growth rate would be over an entire year if the same simple percent change continued for four quarters or twelve months. The percent change at annual rate of X between the previous quarter t –1 and the current quarter t is: 100 x [ ( XX ) t t –1 4 –1 ] For monthly data replace 4 with 12. 3. All data with significant seasonal patterns are seasonally adjusted, unless labeled NSA. National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. For more information on data, please call (314) 444-8573. Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing to the Public Affairs Office, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or by calling (314) 444-8808 or (314) 444-8809. Information in this publication is also included on the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board at (314) 621-1824 or Internet World Wide Web server at http://www.stls.frb.org/fred. NationalEconomicTrends Real GDP Growth 12/05/01 Consumer Price Index Industrial Production Interest Rates Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Unemployment Rate Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NationalEconomicTrends 12/05/01 Real Gross Domestic Product Industrial Production and Purchasing Managers’ (NAPM) Indexes Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NationalEconomicTrends 12/05/01 Real Final Sales and GDP Real GDP Revisions Industrial Production and NAPM Index Nominal Gross Domestic Product Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Average Weekly Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Inventory-Sales Ratio Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NationalEconomicTrends 12/05/01 Contribution of Components to Real GDP Growth Contributions to Real GDP Growth Rate 1999 4th 2000 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 2001 1st 2nd 3rd NationalEconomicTrends 12/05/01 Interest Rates Treasury Yield Curve Standard and Poor’s 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NationalEconomicTrends 12/05/01 NIPA Chain Price Indexes Consumer Price Index Producer Price Index, Finished Goods Employment Cost Index and Compensation per Hour Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NationalEconomicTrends NIPA Chain Price Indexes 12/05/01 Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices Consumer Price Index Consumption Chain Price Index Producer Price Index, Finished Goods Unit Labor Cost Employment Cost Index Compensation per Hour Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NationalEconomicTrends 12/05/01 Employment Unemployment, Labor Force Participation and Employment Rates Duration of Unemployment Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NationalEconomicTrends 12/05/01 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Change in Manufacturing Payrolls Change in Household Employment Labor Force and Population Available Labor Supply and Components Unemployment Rate and Help-Wanted Advertising Index Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NationalEconomicTrends 12/05/01 Real Disposable Personal Income Real Consumption Retail and Food Services Sales Debt Service Payments as a Percent of Disposable Income and Household Debt Outstanding Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NationalEconomicTrends Real Disposable Personal Income 12/05/01 Personal Saving Rate Real Consumption Real Consumption Retail and Food Services Sales Real Durables Consumption and Vehicle Sales Consumer Sentiment (U. of Michigan) Real Durables Consumption Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NationalEconomicTrends 12/05/01 Investment Private Fixed Investment Real Nonresidential Fixed and Equipment & Software Investment Real Residential Fixed Investment Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NationalEconomicTrends 12/05/01 Gross Saving Rates and Net Foreign Investment Real Private Fixed Investment Nondefense Capital Goods Orders Real Equipment & Software Investment Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment Real Residential Fixed Investment Housing Starts and New Home Sales Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NationalEconomicTrends 12/05/01 Govt. Consumption and Investment Government Receipts and Outlays Government Budgets Unified Budget National Income Accounts State and Local Receipts Expenditures Federal Surplus or Deficit(-) Receipts Expenditures Federal Surplus or Deficit(-) Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Receipts Outlays Surplus or Deficit(-) NationalEconomicTrends 12/05/01 Federal Debt Federal Surplus (+) / Deficit (-) Change in Federal Debt Federal Surplus (+) / Deficit (-), Unified Basis Federal Government Debt Total Public Debt Held by Agencies and Trusts Total Federal Reserve Banks Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Total Foreign and International NationalEconomicTrends 12/05/01 Current Account, Trade and Investment Income Balances Exchange Rates Goods Export Shares, 2000 UK 5.38% All Other 22.78% Goods Import Shares, 2000 Mexico 14.42% UK 3.54% Mexico 11.10% China 8.17% China 2.10% Japan 8.41% Japan 11.96% All Other 26.00% Germany 3.81% France 2.64% Germany 4.78% France 2.43% Other OECD 17.29% Canada 23.17% Other OECD 13.16% Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Canada 18.85% NationalEconomicTrends 12/05/01 Trade Balance Goods Trade Current Account Balance Services Trade Real GDP Growth of Major Trading Partners United Kingdom Germany Canada France Japan Mexico Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NationalEconomicTrends 12/05/01 Output per Hour and Capacity Utilization, Manufacturing Nonfarm Compensation per Hour Output per Hour, Nonfarm Business and Nonfarm, Nonfinancial Corporations Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NationalEconomicTrends 12/05/01 Nonfarm Output per Hour Manufacturing Output per Hour Selected Component Shares of National Income Corporate Profits after Tax (with IVA and CCAdj) Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis National EconomicTrends Nominal GOP 1997 1998 1999 2000 1998 1 2 3 4 1999 1 2 3 4 2000 1 2 3 4 2001 1 2 3 Real GDP Percent chang~ Billions Annual Year of $ rate ago Billions of 1996 $ 8318.4 8781.5 9268.6 9872.9 6.5 5.6 5.5 6.5 8159.450 8508.933 8856.541 9223.994 2000 1 2 3 4 2001 1 2 3 8095.204 8431.826 8792.031 9167.025 Billions of 1996 $ Last qtr YeariYear ago 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.3 63.757 76.727 62.106 50.587 8396.345 8442.912 8528.466 8667.853 6.1 2.2 4.1 6.7 4.7 3.8 3.8 4.8 8286.592 8397.191 8454.942 8588.501 4.0 5.4 2.8 6.5 4.0 4.4 3.6 4.7 113.143 41.975 71.789 79.999 79.722 68.139 73.252 76.727 9093.1 9161.4 9297.4 9522.5 4.9 3.0 6.1 10.0 5.4 5.3 5.5 6.0 8733.483 8771.221 8871.464 9049.917 3.1 1.7 4.7 8.3 4.0 3.9 4.0 4.4 8651.156 8735.136 8825.577 8956.256 3.0 3.9 4.2 6.1 4.4 4.0 4.4 4.3 83.378 32.737 39.558 92.749 69.285 66.976 58.918 62.106 9668.7 9857.6 9937.5 10027.9 6.3 8.0 3.3 3.7 6.3 7.6 6.9 5,3 9102.499 9229.385 9260.091 9303.923 2.3 5.7 1.3 1.9 4.2 5.2 4.4 2.8 9061.640 9148.501 9201.271 9256.687 4.8 3.9 2.3 2.4 4.7 4.7 4.3 3.4 28.917 78.942 51.725 42.765 48.490 60.042 63.083 50.587 10141.7 10202.6 4.6 2.4 4.9 3.5 9334.472 9341.739 1.3 0.3 2.5 1.2 9347.828 9364.795 4.0 0.7 3.2 2.4 —27.113 —38.287 36.580 7.273 10229.7 1.1 2.9 9316.815 —1.1 0.6 9357.401 —0.3 1.7 —60.146 —20.695 Durables Consump~on 1997 5423.902 1998 5683.734 1999 5968.444 2000 6257.816 4 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.1 Chanqe in Private lnven1o~es 6.2 5.0 5.1 6.0 Billions of 1996 $ 1999 1 2 3 Billions of 1996 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago 7.2 3.3 5.6 7.8 Percent change Annual Year rate ago 4 Final Sales Percent change Annual Year rate ago 8627.8 8697.3 8816.5 8984.5 Consump~on 1998 1 2 3 12~5~O1 Private Fixed Investment Billions of 1996 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago 3.6 4.8 5.0 4.8 657.347 726.658 817.834 895.529 Nonresidential Fixed Investment Billions of 1996 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 1996 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago 6.6 10.5 12.5 9.5 1328.630 1479.986 1595.386 1716.207 9.6 11.4 7.8 7.6 1009,344 1135.921 1228.634 1350.670 12.2 12.5 8.2 9.9 5576.260 5660.165 5713.745 5784.661 5.1 6.2 3.8 5.1 4.2 5.3 4.6 5.0 692.530 719.710 727.101 767.283 7.0 16.6 4.2 24.0 8.0 13.1 8.4 12.7 1431.442 1471.449 1485.359 1531.720 18.7 11.7 3.8 13.1 12.2 12.2 9.5 11.7 1099.458 1132.260 1136.578 1175.370 21.6 12.5 1.5 14.4 14.4 14.1 9.6 12.3 5853.953 5936.129 6000.026 6083.617 4.9 5.7 4.4 5.7 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.2 780.519 809.499 827.161 854.151 7.1 15.7 9.0 13.7 12.7 12.5 13.8 11.3 1558.242 1582.823 1610.836 1 629.669 7.1 6.5 7.3 4.8 8.9 7.6 8.4 6.4 1192.630 1214.882 1244.626 1262.408 6.0 7.7 10.2 5.8 8.5 7.3 9.5 7,4 6171.712 6226.286 6292.122 6341.092 5.9 3.6 4.3 3.1 5.4 4.9 4.9 4.2 892.126 886.460 904.104 899.419 19.0 —2.5 8.2 —2.1 14.3 9.5 9.3 5.3 1683.440 1719.215 1730.056 1732.106 13.9 8.8 2.5 0.5 8.0 8.6 7.4 6.3 1309.449 1347.656 1371.096 1374.460 15.8 12.2 7.1 1.0 9.8 10.9 10.2 8.9 6388.492 6428.402 6446.523 3.0 2.5 1.1 3.5 3.2 2.5 922.425 938.115 939.79 1 10.6 7.0 0.7 3.4 1740.340 1696.380 1 668.9 24 1.9 —9.7 —6.3 3.4 —1.3 —3.5 1373.911 1320.925 1289.112 —0.2 —14.6 —9.3 4,9 —2.0 —6.0 5.8 3.9 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NationalEconomicTrends GDP Chain Price Index Employment Cost Index Index 1997 1998 1999 2000 1998 1 2 3 101.950 103.200 104.660 107.040 ECI: wages Year ago Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago 2.0 1.2 1.4 2.3 133.3 138.0 142.4 148.9 3.1 3.5 3.2 4.6 130.4 135.6 140.3 146.0 f8rc~nL~haogg Annual rate iz~i ECI: Benefits Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index 3.5 4.0 3.4 4.1 140.2 143.6 147.6 156.0 E~~ntchagg~ Annual Year rate ago 2.1 2.4 2.8 5.7 102.760 103.020 103.380 103.660 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.1 136.2 137.3 138.8 139.7 3.0 3.3 4.4 2.6 3.5 3.5 3.8 3.3 133.7 134.8 136.5 137.5 4.0 3.3 5.1 3.0 4.0 3.9 4.3 3.9 142.2 143.1 144.1 145.1 1.1 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.3 104.100 104.450 104.810 105.280 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.8 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.6 140.2 141.8 143.0 144.6 1.4 4.6 3.4 4.6 2.9 3.3 3.0 3.5 138.1 139.7 140.9 142.3 1.8 4.7 3.5 4.0 3.3 3.6 3.2 3.5 145.3 146.7 148.2 150.2 0.6 3.9 4.2 5.5 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.5 2000 1 2 3 4 106.250 106.810 3.7 2.1 2.1 2.3 146.6 148.3 5.6 4.7 4.6 4.6 143.9 145.4 4.6 4.2 4.2 4.1 153.2 155.1 8.2 5.1 5.4 5.7 107.310 107.780 1.9 1.8 2.4 2.4 149.7 151.0 3.8 3.5 4.7 4.4 146.7 147.9 3.6 3.3 4.1 3.9 157.0 158.7 5.0 4.4 5.9 5.7 2001 1 108.650 3.3 2 3 109.220 2.1 2.3 2.3 152.7 154.2 4.6 4.0 4.2 4.0 149.5 150.9 4.4 3.8 3.9 3.8 161.0 162.5 5.9 3.8 5.1 4.8 109.800 2.1 2.3 155.6 3.7 3.9 152.0 2.9 3.6 164.7 5.5 4.9 4 1999 1 2 3 4 Expo~s 1997 1998 1999 2000 1998 1 2 3 4 1999 1 2 3 4 2000 1 2 3 4 2001 1 2 3 Nonfarm Output per Hour Impo~s Billions of 1996 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 1996 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago 981.458 1002.420 1034.852 1133.204 12.3 2.1 3.2 9.5 1094.778 1223.500 1351.721 1532.260 Nontarm Compensation/Hr Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago 13.7 11.8 10.5 13.4 107.5 110.3 112.9 116.2 2.0 2.6 2.4 2.9 113.1 119.2 124.4 132.0 3.0 5.4 4.4 6.1 1003.364 993.110 987.612 1025.577 0.5 —4.0 —2.2 16.3 6.7 1.4 —1.7 2.3 1184.176 1216.171 1228.855 1264.818 15.9 11.3 4.2 12.2 14.5 12.6 9.4 10.8 109.6 109.7 110.4 111.6 4.5 0.4 2.6 4.4 3.2 2.2 2.0 3.0 116.9 118.5 120.0 121.2 6.8 5.6 5.2 4.1 4.6 5.6 5.9 5.4 1007.560 1018.015 1041.766 1072.056 —6.8 4.2 9.7 12.1 0.4 2.5 5.5 4.5 1290.592 1331.390 1375.106 1409.808 8.4 13.3 13.8 10.5 9.0 9.5 11.9 11.5 112.2 111.9 112.7 114.7 2.2 —1.1 2.9 7.3 2.4 2.0 2.1 2.8 122.3 123.6 125.1 126.4 3.7 4.3 4.9 4.2 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.3 1095.457 1130.581 1159.306 1147.470 9.0 13.5 10.6 —4.0 8.7 11.1 11.3 7.0 1466.565 1523.380 1570.554 1568.541 17.1 16.4 13.0 —0.5 13.6 14.4 14.2 11.3 114.5 116.3 116.7 117.4 —0.7 6.4 1.4 2.4 2.0 3.9 3.5 2.4 128.4 130.7 133.0 135.9 6.5 7.4 7.2 9.0 5.0 5.7 6.3 7.5 1144.061 —1.2 1108.299 —11.9 1055.534 —17.7 4.4 —2.0 —9.0 1548.585 —5.0 1515.039 —8.4 1463.675 —12.9 5.6 —0.5 —6.8 117.4 118.0 118.8 0.0 2.1 2.7 2.5 1.5 1.8 137.6 139.2 140.7 5.1 4.7 4.4 7.2 6.5 5.8 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NationalEconomicTrends Household Survey Employment Thousands Change 1999 2000 2001 12IO5~1 Nontarm Payroll Employment Percent change Annual Year rate ago Thousands Change Nontarm Aggregate Hours Percent change Annual Year rate ago Percent change Index Monthly Annual rate rate Year ago 1996 126720 1812 1.5 119589 2402 2.0 136.6 2.4 1997 129572 2852 2.3 122676 3087 2.6 141.4 3.5 1998 131471 1898 1.5 125845 3168 2.6 145.2 2.7 1999 133501 2030 1.5 128901 3056 2.4 148.4 2.2 2000 135215 1714 1.3 131757 2857 2.2 151.4 2.1 1 132923 632 1.9 1.7 127775 801 2.5 2.4 147.0 0.3 1.4 1.9 2 3 4 133192 133627 134263 269 435 636 0.8 1.3 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.5 128503 129217 130107 727 715 890 2.3 2.2 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.5 147.9 148.7 149.9 0.6 0.5 0.8 2.6 2.1 3.4 2.2 2.2 2.3 1 2 3 135036 774 2.3 1.6 130984 877 2.7 2.5 151.0 0.7 3.0 2.7 135181 135049 145 —132 0.4 —0.4 1.5 1.1 131854 131927 870 74 2.7 0.2 2.6 2.1 151.5 151.5 0.3 0.0 1.2 0.2 2.4 1.9 4 135593 544 1.6 1.0 132264 336 1.0 1.7 151.6 0.0 0.2 1.1 1 135865 272 0.8 0.6 132559 295 0.9 1.2 152.0 0.2 1.0 0.6 2 3 135130 —735 —2.1 —0.0 132483 —76 —0.2 0.5 134984 —145 —0.4 —0.0 132342 —141 —0.4 0.3 151.4 150.3 —0.4 —0.7 —1.5 —3.0 —0.0 —0.8 1999 Oct 134049 254 2.3 1.5 129863 453 4.3 2.5 149.6 0.6 7.5 2.3 Nov 134241 192 1.7 1.5 130093 230 2.1 2.5 149.9 0.2 2.4 2.5 Dec 134498 257 2.3 1.4 130365 272 2.5 2.4 150.2 0.2 2.4 2.2 2000 Jan Feb 134976 135120 478 144 4.3 1.3 1.5 1.7 130668 130843 303 175 2.8 1.6 2.5 2.3 150.7 150.9 0.3 0.1 4.1 1.6 2.8 2.4 Mar 135013 —107 —0.9 1.6 131441 598 5.6 2.7 151.4 0.3 4.0 3.1 Apr 135517 504 4.6 2.0 131683 242 2.2 2.6 151.8 0.3 3.2 2.8 May 134843 —674 —5.8 1.2 131909 226 2.1 2.7 151.1 —0.5 —5.4 2.2 Jun 135183 340 3.1 1.3 131969 60 0.5 2.5 151.5 0.3 3.2 2.2 2.0 Jul 134898 —285 —2.5 1.0 131899 —70 —0.6 2.2 151.6 0.1 0.8 Aug 134939 41 0.4 1.0 131837 —62 —0.6 2.0 151.3 —0.2 —2.3 1.7 Sep 135310 371 3.3 1.1 132046 209 1.9 2.0 151.7 0.3 3.2 2.0 Oct Nov 135464 135478 154 14 1.4 0.1 1.1 0.9 132145 132279 99 134 0.9 1.2 1.8 1.7 151.8 151.8 0.1 0.0 0.8 0.0 1.5 1.3 Dec 135836 358 3.2 1.0 132367 68 0.8 1.5 151.2 —0.4 —4.6 0.7 2001 Jan Feb Mar 135999 163 1.4 0.8 135815 135780 —184 —35 —1.6 —0.3 0.5 0.6 132428 132595 132654 61 167 59 0.6 1.5 0.5 1.3 1.3 0.9 152.2 151.7 152.0 0.7 —0.3 0.2 8.2 —3.9 2.4 1.0 0.5 0.4 Apr May Jun 135354 135103 134932 —426 —251 —171 —3.7 —2.2 —1.5 —0.1 0.2 —0.2 132489 132530 132431 —165 41 —99 —1.5 0.4 —0.9 0.6 0.5 0.4 151.5 151.5 —0.3 0.0 —3.9 0.0 —0.2 0.3 151.2 —0.2 —2.4 —0.2 Jul 447 —986 788 4.0 —8.4 7.3 0.4 —0.4 —0.1 132449 132395 132182 18 —54 —213 0.2 —0.5 —1.9 0.4 0.4 0.1 150.8 —0.3 —3.1 —0.5 Sep 135379 134393 135181 150.1 149.9 —0.5 —0.1 —5.4 —1.6 —0.8 —1.2 Oct 134562 —619 —5.4 -0.7 131767 —415 —3.7 —0.3 148.8 —0.7 —8.5 —2.0 Aug Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NationalEconomicTrends I 2IO5~1 Retail and Food Services Sales 1999 Percent change Monthly! Annual Year quarterly rate ago Treasury Yields Unempl. Rate Billions of dollars 1996 5.4 2638.816 5.8 119.648 4.6 5.01 6.44 1997 5.0 2769.378 4.9 127.944 6.9 5.06 6.35 1998 4.5 2906.996 5.0 134.504 5.1 4.78 5.26 1999 4.2 3146.523 8.2 139.447 3.7 4.64 5.64 2000 4.0 3386.162 7.6 145.732 4.5 5.82 6.03 4.3 4.3 761.800 777.546 2.0 2.1 8.4 8.5 7.4 7.2 137.309 138.424 0.9 0.8 3.6 3.3 3,3 3.3 4.41 4.98 2 3 4 4.2 4.1 794.178 812.999 2.1 2.4 8.8 9.8 9.4 8.9 140.027 142.029 1.2 1.4 4.7 5.8 3.8 4.3 4.45 4.65 5.04 5.54 5.88 6.14 1 2000 Industrial Production ~~fercent~change Monthly! Annual quarterly rate Year ago Index 3—mo 10—yr 1 4.0 839.058 3.2 13.5 10.1 144.033 1.4 5.8 4.9 5.52 6.48 2 4.0 842.109 0.4 1.5 8.3 3 4 4.0 4.0 852.153 852.842 1.2 0.1 4.9 0.3 7.3 4.9 146.480 146.686 145.730 1.7 0.1 —0.7 7.0 0.6 —2.6 5.8 4.8 2.6 5.71 6.02 6.02 6.18 5.89 5.57 1 2 3 4.2 4.5 4.8 863.401 874.458 871.509 1.2 1.3 —0.3 5.0 5.2 —1.3 2.9 3.8 2.3 143.457 141.309 139.571 —1.6 —1.5 —1.2 —6.1 —5.9 —4.8 —0.4 —3.5 —4.9 4.82 3.66 3.17 5.05 5.27 4.98 1999 Nov Dec 4.1 4.1 270.712 275.211 1.4 1.7 17.6 21.9 8.8 9.7 141.895 142.856 0.4 0.7 4.9 8.4 4.4 5.1 5.07 5.20 6.03 6.28 2000 Jan 4.0 275.864 0.2 2.9 9.6 143.173 0.2 2.7 4.6 5.32 6.66 Feb 4.1 279.909 1.5 19.1 10.0 144.043 0.6 7.5 5.0 5.55 6.52 Mar 4.0 283.285 1.2 15.5 10.8 144.882 0.6 7.2 5.1 5.69 6.26 2001 Apr 4.0 279.961 —1.2 —13.2 8.9 145.636 0.5 6.4 5.6 5.66 5.99 May Jun 4.1 4.0 280.447 281.701 0.2 0.4 2.1 5.5 7.9 8.1 146.617 147.188 0.7 0.4 8.4 4.8 5.8 6.1 5.79 5.69 6.44 6.10 Jul 4.0 283.035 0.5 5.8 7.8 146.532 —0.4 —5.2 5.0 5.96 6.05 Aug 4.1 282.905 —0.0 —0.5 6.5 146.700 0.1 1.4 4.6 6.09 5.83 Sep 3.9 286.213 1.2 15.0 7.6 146.826 0.1 1.0 4.7 6.00 5.80 Oct 3.9 4.0 4.0 285.459 283.648 283.735 —0.3 —0.6 0.0 —3.1 —7.4 0.4 6.9 4.8 3.1 146.266 145.789 145.135 —0.4 —0.3 —0.4 —4.5 —3.8 —5.3 3.5 2.7 1.6 6.11 6.17 5.77 5.74 5.72 5.24 4.2 4.2 4.3 288.054 288.245 287.102 1.5 0.1 —0.4 19.9 0.8 —4.7 4.4 3.0 1.3 143.934 —0.8 —9.5 0.5 143.509 —0.3 —3.5 —0.4 142.928 —0.4 —4.8 —1.3 5.15 4.88 4.42 5.16 5.10 4.89 4.5 4.4 4.5 291.116 291.691 291.651 1.4 0.2 —0.0 18.1 2.4 —0.2 4.0 4.0 3.5 142.007 141 .595 140.326 —0.6 —7.5 —0.3 —3.4 —0.9 —10.2 —2.5 —3.4 —4.7 3.87 3.62 3.49 5.14 5.39 5.28 4.5 4.9 4.9 292.228 292.869 286.412 0.2 0.2 —2.2 2.4 2.7 —23.5 3.2 3.5 0.1 140.402 139.816 138.495 0.1 0.7 —0.4 —4.9 —0.9 —10.8 —4.2 —4.7 —5.7 3.51 3.36 2.64 5.24 4.97 4.73 5.4 306.826 7.1 128.5 7.5 136.891 —1.2 —13.0 —6.4 2.16 1.87 4.57 4.65 Nov Dec 2001 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NationalEconomicTrends 12d05101 Consumer Price Index less Food and Energy Consumer Price Index 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1999 1 3 1.7 2.1 2.3 1.6 2.2 2.4 4 168.5 0.8 3.2 2.6 1 170.3 171.5 173.0 174.3 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.7 4.2 3.0 3.5 2.9 176.1 177.4 177.7 1.0 0.8 0.2 168.2 168.5 168.9 Year to date 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.4 Index Percent change Monthly! Annual Year quarterly rate ago 131.3 131.8 130.7 133.0 138.0 2.6 0.4 —0.9 1.8 3.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 131.4 132.3 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.8 0.7 1.3 2.6 175.9 176.8 177.6 178.7 133.6 134.8 1.0 0.9 4.0 3.7 2.3 2.9 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.4 4.2 3.6 3.6 3.4 179.8 181.0 182.1 183.2 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 136.3 137.5 138.4 139.8 1.1 0.9 0.7 1.0 4.4 3.6 2.6 4.1 3.7 3.9 3.6 3.7 4.2 3.1 0.7 3.4 3.4 2.7 4.2 3.6 2.6 184.6 185.8 187.0 0.8 0.6 0.6 3.2 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.2 2.9 2.8 141.6 142.2 140.9 1.3 0.4 —0.9 5.3 1.6 —3.6 3.9 3.4 1.8 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.9 2.2 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 178.3 178.7 179.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.0 2.7 2.0 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 134.6 134.7 135.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.9 4.5 2.7 3.0 3.0 169.4 170.2 171.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 3.6 5.8 7.3 2.8 3.3 3.8 3.6 4.7 5.6 179.4 179.7 180.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 2.7 2.0 4.1 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.4 2.9 135.1 136.3 137.5 —0.1 0.9 0.9 —0.9 11.2 11.1 2.6 4.0 4.6 171.1 171.3 172.2 —0.1 0.1 0.5 —0.7 1.4 6.5 3.1 3.2 3.7 4.0 3.4 3.9 180.7 0.2 2.7 2.3 2.9 137.1 —0.3 —3.4 3,7 181.0 181.3 0.2 0.2 2.0 2.0 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.6 137.1 138.3 0.0 0.9 0.0 11.0 3.6 4.5 172.7 172.8 173.6 0.3 0.1 0.5 3.5 0.7 5.7 3.6 3.4 3.5 3.9 3.5 3.7 181.7 182.1 182.6 0.2 0.2 0.3 2.7 2.7 3.3 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 138.2 138.0 139.0 —0.1 —0.1 0.7 —0.9 —1.7 9.1 4.1 3,3 3.3 173.9 174.3 174.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.1 2.8 2.1 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.4 182.8 183.3 183.5 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.3 3.3 1.3 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.5 139.6 0.4 5.3 3.7 139.8 140.0 0.1 0.1 1.7 1.7 3.8 3.6 175.7 176.2 176.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 7.8 3.5 0.7 3.7 3.5 3.0 7.8 5.6 4.0 184.1 184.7 185.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 4.0 4.0 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.7 4.0 4.0 3.5 141.6 141.7 141.6 1.1 0.1 —0.1 14.6 0.9 —0.8 4.8 4.0 3.0 176.8 177.5 177.9 0.3 0.4 0.2 3.5 4.9 2.7 3.3 3.6 3.3 3.8 4.0 3.8 185.5 185.7 186.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 2.6 1.3 3.9 2.7 2.6 2.8 3.3 2.9 3.1 142.3 142.4 141.9 0.5 0.1 —0.4 6.1 0.8 —4.1 3.8 3.9 2.6 Sep 177.4 177.5 178.2 —0.3 0.1 0.4 —3.3 0.7 4.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.5 2.8 186.6 187.0 187.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.9 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.8 140.4 140.9 141.4 —1.1 —12.0 0.4 4.4 0.4 4.3 1.6 2.1 1.7 Oct 177.6 —0.3 —4.0 2.1 2.1 187.7 0.2 1.9 2.7 2.8 139.1 —1.6 4 1 2 3 Oct Nov Dec 2000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2001 Index Percent chance Monthly! Annual Year quarterly rate ago 165.8 169.7 173.6 177.2 181.5 1.6 2.9 2.8 3 1999 2.9 2.3 1.5 2.2 3.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 2 2001 157.0 160.6 163.1 166.7 172.3 Year to date 164.9 166.0 167.2 2 2000 Index Percent chance Monthly! Annual Year quarterly rate ago Producer Price Index Finished Goods Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis —17.9 —0.4 Notes Pages 4, 5: Final sales is gross domestic product (GDP) minus change in private inventories. Advance, preliminary, and final GDP growth rates are released during the first, second, and third months of the following quarter. Changes result from incorporation of more complete information. Real GDP is measured in 1996 dollars. The Purchasing Managers’ Index is a weighted average of diffusion indexes for new orders, production, supplier deliveries, inventories, and employment. Aggregate and average weekly hours are paid hours of production and nonsupervisory employees. The inventory-sales ratio uses nominal (current-dollar) inventory and sales data. Page 6: For information on how to calculate the contribution of a component to the overall GDP growth rate, see the October 1999 issue of the Survey of Current Business, p. 16. The sign is changed for imports. Page 7: Ten-year Treasury yields are adjusted to constant maturity. Three-month yields are secondary market averages, but all rates used in the yield curves are adjusted to constant maturity. Standard and Poor’s 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends shows the total return: capital gains plus dividends. Pages 8,9: Oil (West Texas intermediate) and Natural Gas (Henry Hub) prices are monthly averages of daily spot prices listed in the Wall Street Journal. Consumer price index is for all urban consumers. The consumption chain price index is the index associated with the personal consumption expenditures component of GDP. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) covers private nonfarm employers. ECI compensation refers to a fixed sample of jobs, while compensation per hour covers all workers in the nonfarm business sector in a given quarter. In both cases, compensation is wages and salaries plus benefits. Pages 10,11: Nonfarm payroll employment is counted in a survey of about 390,000 establishments (Current Employment Survey). It excludes self-employed individuals and workers in private households, but double-counts individuals with more than one job. The household survey (Current Population Survey) of about 50,000 households provides estimates of civilian employment, unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and employment-population ratio. Population is civilian, noninstitutional, 16 years and over. 90 percent confidence intervals for the unemployment rate (± 0.2 percentage points) and change in household survey employment (± 376,000) measure uncertainty due to sample size. The available labor supply is the sum of the unemployed and those persons not in the labor force but who want to work now. The household survey was significantly changed in January 1994, so care should be exercised in making short-term comparisons around this date, particularly with the duration data shown on page 10. Pages 13: The Michigan consumer sentiment index shows changes in a summary measure of consumers’ answers to five questions about their current and expected financial situation, expectations about future economic conditions, and attitudes about making large purchases. The survey is based on a representative sample of U.S. households. Pages 14, 15: Overall gross saving includes government saving, which is the sum of the government surplus and capital consumption (see notes for pages 16 and 17). Net foreign investment (NFI) is U.S. investment abroad minus foreign investment in the U.S. Aside from a statistical discrepancy, NFI also equals the difference between gross domestic investment and saving. The comprehensive revision introduced the equipment & software component of business investment. Pages 16, 17: Government consumption and investment is current expenditures on goods and services, including capital consumption (depreciation) and gross investment, as reported in the NIPAs. The unified federal budget surplus/deficit differs from NIPA basis in four main ways: (1) NIPA excludes transactions involving existing assets; (2) NIPA outlays exclude government investment and include consumption of government capital, while unified budget outlays do the reverse; (3) NIPA accounts exclude Puerto Rico and U.S. territories; and (4) various timing issues are handled differently. Outlays and receipts are from the NIPAs, except as noted. Since 1977, the federal fiscal year starts on October 1. Excluded agency debt was 0.6 percent of federal debt at the end of fiscal 1997. Federal debt held by the public includes holdings of the Federal Reserve System and excludes holdings of the social security and other federal trust funds. Federal grants in aid to state and local governments appear in both state and local receipts and federal outlays. Pages 18, 19: The trade balance (shown on a balance of payments basis) is the difference between exports and imports of goods (merchandise) and services. It is nearly identical in concept to the net exports component of GDP, but differs slightly in accounting details. The investment income balance equals income received from U.S.owned assets in other countries minus income paid on foreign-owned assets in the U.S. The investment income balance is nearly identical in concept to the difference between gross national product and gross domestic product, but differs in accounting details. The current account balance is the trade balance plus the balance on investment income plus net unilateral transfers to the U.S. from other countries. Pages 20, 21: Output per hour (Y/H), unit labor cost (C/Y), and compensation per hour (C/H) are indexes which approximately obey the following relationship: %(Y/H) + %(C/Y) = %(C/H) with %() meaning percent changes. Unit labor cost is shown on page 9. Real compensation per hour uses the CPI to adjust for the effects of inflation. Nonfarm business accounted for about 76 percent of the value of GDP in 1996, while nonfinancial corporations accounted for about 54 percent. Inventory valuation adjustments (IVA) remove the effect of changes in the value of existing inventories from corporate profits and proprietors’ income. (This change in value does not correspond to current production and therefore is not part of GDP). Capital consumption adjustments (CCAdj) increase profits and proprietors’ income by the difference between estimates of economic depreciation and depreciation allowed by the tax code. Components of national income not shown are rental income of persons and net interest. NOTE: Measures of retail sales (pp. 12-13), manufacturers’ orders, shipments and inventories (p. 15), and the total business inventory-tosales ratio (p. 5) are now based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). Data from January 1992 onward are on a NAICS basis, while data before that are on the old Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system. For more information, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html Sources Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Dept. of Commerce National income and product accounts, international trade and investment data (except by country), auto and light truck sales Census Bureau, U.S. Dept. of Commerce Inventory-sales ratios, retail sales, capital goods orders, housing starts, exports and imports by country Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Dept. of Labor All employment-related data, employment cost index, consumer and producer price indexes, unit labor cost, output per hour, compensation per hour, multifactor productivity United States Department of Treasury Unified budget receipts, outlays, deficit, debt Federal Reserve Board Index of industrial production, treasury yields, exchange rates, capacity utilization, household debt The Survey Research Center, The University of Michigan Consumer sentiment index The Conference Board Help-wanted advertising index Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) GDP for major trading partners (not available on FRED)
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