Full text of National Economic Trends : December 2000

The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.

December 2000

NationalEconomicTrends

Growth and the Current
Account Deficit
The U.S. current account deficit grew at an average
annual rate of 9 percent between 1990 and 1997 increasing from $77.0 billion to $140.5 billion. By the end
of 1999, the deficit had surged to $331.5 billion, an
annual increase of nearly 54 percent over two years.
What explains this sharp increase? The simple answer
is that the U.S. economy continued to grow strongly
during 1998 and 1999, while the economies of some
of our key trading partners contracted.
The table shows the main components of the current
account balance. The second and third rows show the
difference between U.S. exports and imports of goods
and services, respectively. The balance on income has
two parts: the difference between returns on U.S. investments in other countries and returns earned by foreigners on investments in the United States, and the
difference between compensation paid to U.S. workers abroad and foreign workers in the United States.
Net unilateral transfers consist primarily of U.S.
grants to foreign countries and private remittances.
The growth rate of U.S. imports depends in part on
the growth of the U.S. economy, whereas the growth
rate of U.S. exports depends in part on the growth of
foreign output. As income rises, individuals and businesses increase their purchases of both domestic and
foreign produced goods. Between 1990 and 1997, U.S.
imports of goods rose by 8.4 percent annually. The
annual growth rate of goods exports was only slightly
lower at 8.3 percent. Goods imports continued to grow
at an annual rate of 8.4 percent between 1997 to 1999,
as U.S. growth remained strong, but the average annual
growth rate of exports fell to 0.3 percent.
The Asian crisis is largely responsible for this
change. As a result of the crisis, exports of goods to
Asia declined by 12 percent during 1998. Exports to
the four countries most affected by the crisis (Korea,

Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand) fell by 31 percent.
U.S. goods exports to Asia increased in 1999 but were
below 1995 levels.
Service exports also declined in 1998, led by a fall
in travel and transportation receipts. Visitors to the
United States from Asia declined by 14 percent. In
addition, the decline in goods shipments resulted in
smaller freight revenues.
The Asian financial crisis and a subsequent slowdown in growth in Latin America also affected the balance on income. There was both a shift in the flow of
assets toward the United States and an increase in the
return on assets in the United States relative to returns
abroad. Thus, in 1998, for the first time during the
postwar period, payments to foreigners on investments
in the United States exceeded U.S. receipts on foreign
investment. This difference increased in 1999. In
addition, earnings of U.S. companies operating abroad
fell during 1998 and remained below pre-crisis levels
in 1999.
A continued improvement in the world economy
should raise the growth rate of U.S. exports and the
return on U.S. investment abroad. A slowdown in
growth in the United States should lower the growth
rate of imports and reduce both the return on, and
inflows of, investment in the United States. Either
of these scenarios should reduce the U.S. current
account deficit. However, so long as growth in the
United States remains above that of our major trading
partners, large deficits are likely to remain.
—Patricia S. Pollard
U.S. Current Account – Major Components
$ billions
1997
1998
Balance on Current Account
-140.5
-217.1
Balance on Goods
-196.7
-246.9
Balance on Services
90.7
80.0
Balance on Income
6.2
-6.2
Net unilateral transfers
-40.8
-44.0

1999
-331.5
-345.6
80.1
-18.5
-48.0

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System

TableofContents
Page
3

Economy at a glance

4

Output and growth

7

Interest rates

8

Inflation and prices

10

Labor markets

12

Consumer spending

14

Investment spending

16

Government revenues, spending, and debt

18

International trade

20

Productivity and profits

22

Quick reference tables

27

Notes and sources

Conventions used in this publication:
1. Shaded areas indicate recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
2. Percent change refers to simple percent changes. Percent change from year ago refers to the percent change from
the same month or quarter in the previous year. The percent change at annual rate shows what the growth rate
would be over an entire year if the same simple percent change continued for four quarters or twelve months. The
percent change at annual rate of X between the previous quarter t –1 and the current quarter t is:

100 x

[ ( XXt –1t )

4

–1

]

For monthly data replace 4 with 12.
3. All data with significant seasonal patterns are seasonally adjusted, unless labeled NSA.

National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. For more information on data, please call (314) 444-8573.
Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing to the Public Affairs Office, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442
or by calling (314) 444-8808 or (314) 444-8809. Information in this publication is also included on the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board at
(314) 621-1824 or Internet World Wide Web server at http://www.stls.frb.org/fred.

NationalEconomicTrends

Real GDP Growth

12/01/00

Consumer Price Index

Industrial Production

Interest Rates

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

Unemployment Rate

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

12/01/00

Real Gross Domestic Product

Industrial Production and Purchasing Managers’ (NAPM) Indexes

Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours

Real Change in Private Inventories

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

12/01/00

Real Final Sales and GDP

Real GDP Revisions

Industrial Production and NAPM Index

Nominal Gross Domestic Product

Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours

Average Weekly Private Nonfarm Hours

Real Change in Private Inventories

Inventory-Sales Ratio

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

12/01/00

Contribution of Components to Real GDP Growth

Contributions to Real GDP Growth Rate
1998
4th

1999
1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

2000
1st

2nd

3rd

NationalEconomicTrends

12/05/00

Interest Rates

Treasury Yield Curve

Standard and Poor’s 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

12/01/00

NIPA Chain Price Indexes

Consumer Price Index

Producer Price Index, Finished Goods

Employment Cost Index and Compensation per Hour

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

NIPA Chain Price Indexes

12/01/00

Crude Oil Price

Consumer Price Index

Consumption Chain Price Index

Producer Price Index, Finished Goods

Unit Labor Cost

Employment Cost Index

Compensation per Hour

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

12/01/00

Employment

Unemployment, Labor Force Participation and Employment Rates

Duration of Unemployment

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

12/01/00

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls

Change in Household Employment

Labor Force and Population

Available Labor Supply and Components

Unemployment Rate and Help-Wanted Advertising Index

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

12/01/00

Real Disposable Personal Income

Real Consumption

Retail Sales

Debt Service Payments as a Percent of Disposable Income and Household Debt Outstanding

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

Real Disposable Personal Income

12/01/00

Personal Saving Rate

Real Consumption

Real Consumption

Retail Sales

Real Durables Consumption and Vehicle Sales

Consumer Sentiment (U. of Michigan)

Real Durables Consumption

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

12/01/00

Real Investment

Private Fixed Investment

Real Nonresidential Fixed and Equipment & Software Investment

Real Residential Fixed Investment

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

12/01/00

Gross Saving Rates and Net Foreign Investment

Real Private Fixed Investment

Nondefense Capital Goods Orders

Real Equipment & Software Investment

Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment

Real Residential Fixed Investment

Housing Starts and New Home Sales

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

12/01/00

Govt. Consumption and Investment

Government Receipts and Outlays

Government Budgets
Unified Budget

National Income Accounts
State and Local
Receipts

Expenditures

Federal
Surplus or
Deficit(-)

Receipts

Expenditures

Federal
Surplus or
Deficit(-)

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Receipts

Outlays

Surplus or
Deficit(-)

NationalEconomicTrends

12/01/00

Federal Debt

Federal Deficit

Change in Federal Debt

Federal Deficit, Unified Basis

Federal Government Debt
Total
Public Debt

Held by
Agencies
and Trusts

Total

Federal
Reserve Banks

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Total

Foreign and
International

NationalEconomicTrends

12/01/00

Current Account, Trade and Investment Income Balances

Exchange Rates

Goods Export Shares, 1999
UK
5.6%

Goods Import Shares, 1999

Mexico
12.7%

All Other
22.9%

UK
3.8%

China
7.9%

China
1.9%
Japan
8.4%

Japan
12.7%
All Other
24.8%

Germany
3.9%

France
2.8%

Other OECD
17.5%

Mexico
10.7%

Germany
5.4%

France
2.5%
Canada
24.3%

Other OECD
12.9%

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Canada
19.3%

NationalEconomicTrends

12/01/00

Trade Balance

Goods Trade

Current Account Balance

Services Trade

Real GDP Growth of Major Trading Partners
United Kingdom

Germany

Canada

France

Japan

Mexico

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

12/01/00

Output per Hour and Capacity Utilization, Manufacturing

Nonfarm Compensation per Hour

Output per Hour, Nonfarm Business and Nonfarm, Nonfinancial Corporations

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

12/01/00

Nonfarm Output per Hour

Manufacturing Output per Hour

Selected Component Shares of National Income

Corporate Profits after Tax (with IVA and CCAdj)

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

12~1~O

NominalGDP

1996
1997
1998
1999

Real GDP

Percent change
Billions
Annual
Year
of $
rate
ago

Billions
of 1996 $

7813.2
8318.4
8790.2
9299.2

5.6
6.5
5.7
5.8

7813.170
8159.450
8515.652
8875.761

Final Sales

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Billions
of 1996 $

3.6
4.4
4.4
4.2

7783.176
8095.204
8435.173
8826.900

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Chanqe in
Private lnven1o~es
Billions of 1996 $
Last qtr Year/Year ago

3.6
4.0
4.2
4.6

29.994
63.757
80.169
45.287

3
4

8124.2
8279.8
8390.9
8478.6

7.4
7.9
5.5
4.2

6.5
6.4
6.8
6.2

8016.391
8131.947
8216.564
8272.897

4.4
5.9
4.2
2.8

4.4
4.2
4.8
4.3

7966.392
8043.212
8164.863
8206.269

3.5
3.9
6.2
2.0

3.9
3.5
4.8
3.9

49.283
88.306
51.336
66.102

40.919
55.429
55.452
63.757

1
2
3
4

8634.7
8722.0
8829.1
8974.9

7.6
4.1
5.0
6.8

6.3
5.3
5.2
5.9

8404.861
8465.570
8537.607
8654.492

6.5
2.9
3.4
5.6

4.8
4.1
3.9
4.6

8289.394
8402.717
8463.426
8584.999

4.1
5.6
2.9
5.9

4.1
4.5
3.7
4.6

117.319
60.914
73.069
69.374

80.766
73.918
79.351
80.169

1999 1
2
3
4

9104.5
9191.5
9340.9
9559.7

5.9
3.9
6.7
9.7

5.4
5.4
5.8
6.5

8729.967
8783.175
8905.764
9084.060

3.5
2.5
5.7
8.3

3.9
3.8
4.3
5.0

8680.265
8764.868
8861.769
9000.543

4.5
4.0
4.5
6.4

4.7
4.3
4.7
4.8

48.073
13.101
39.096
80.878

62.858
50.904
42.411
45.287

2000 1
2

9752.7
9945.7

8.3
8.2

7.1
8.2

3

10052.2

4.4

7.6

9191.804
9318.924
9373.538

4.8
5.6
2.4

5.3
6.1
5.3

9148.034
9235.283
9294.124

6.7
3.9
2.6

5.4
5.4
4.9

36.634
78.603
73.450

42.427
58.803
67.391

1997

1998

1
2

Consump~on

1996
1997
1998
1999
1997 1
2

3
4
1998 1
2

3
4
1999

1
2

3
4
2000 1

2
3

Durables Consump~on

Billions
of 1996 $

Percent change
Annual Year
rate
ago

5237.499
5423.902
5678.654
5978.815

Private Fixed Investment

Billions
of 1996 $

Percent change
Annual Year
rate
ago

3.2
3.6
4.7
5.3

616.475
657.347
727.268
817.779

Nonresidential Fixed Investment

Billions
of 1996 $

Percent change
Annual Year
rate
ago

Billions
of 1996 $

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

5.6
6.6
10.6
12.4

1212.696
1328.630
1485.274
1621.375

9.3
9.6
11.8
9.2

899.433
1009.344
1140.256
1255.285

10.0
12.2
13.0
10.1

5350.681
5375,664
5462.083
5507.125

4.5
1.9
6.6
3.3

3.4
2.8
4.0
4.1

641.473
636.510
670.509
680.890

10.5
—3.1
23.1
6.3

6.6
2.6
8.5
8.8

1275.405
1311.094
1356.728
1371.305

8.3
11.7
14.7
4.4

9.5
8.9
10.2
9.7

960.756
992.659
1036.974
1046.985

10.9
14.0
19.1
3.9

11.5
12.1
13.4
11.8

5572.385
5651.576
5710.969
5779.790

4.8
5.8
4.3
4.9

4.1
5.1
4.6
5.0

696.376
719.352
726.670
766.673

9.4
13.9
4.1
23.9

8.6
13.0
8.4
12.6

1427.367
1477.585
1496.394
1539.748

17.4
14.8
5.2
12.1

11.9
12.7
10.3
12.3

1095.977
1136.398
1146.336
1182.332

20.1
15.6
3.5
13.2

14.1
14.5
10.5
12.9

5860.238
5940.214
6013.801
6101.005

5.7
5.6
5.0
5.9

5.2
5.1
5.3
5.6

782.677
810.480
826.150
851.802

8.6
15.0
8.0
13.0

12.4
12.7
13.7
11.1

1574,043
1607.125
1637.758
1666.560

9.2
8.7
7.8
7.2

10.3
8.8
9.4
8.2

1209.432
1237.494
1272.464
1301.758

9.5
9.6
11.8
9.5

10.4
8.9
11.0
10.1

62 13.455
6260.644
6330.460

7.6
3.1
4.5

6.0
5.4
5.3

898.223
886.688
904.054

23.6
—5.0
8.1

14.8
9.4
9.4

1730.930
1777.643
1791.928

16.4
11.2
3.3

10.0
10.6
9.4

1365.267
1412.488
1439.381

21.0
14.6
7.8

12.9
14.1
13.1

Federal Reserve ~ankof St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends
GDP Chain Price Index
Index

1996
1997
1998
1999
1997 1

Employment Cost Index

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

100.000
101.950
103.230
104.770

12A~1A~O

ECI: ~Nages

Index

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

1.9
2.0
1.3
1.5

129.3
133.3
138.0
142.4

ECI: Benefits

Index

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Index

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

2.8
3.1
3.5
3.2

126.0
130.4
135.7
140.2

3.3
3.5
4.0
3.4

137.4
140.2
143.6
147.6

1.8
2.0
2.5
2.8

101.360
101.820
102.120
102.490

2.9
1.8
1.2
1.5

2.0
2.1
1.9
1.8

131.6
132.7
133.7
135.1

3.1
3.4
3.0
4.3

2.9
2.9
3.0
3.4

128.5
129.7
131.0
132.4

3.5
3.8
4.1
4.3

3.3
3.3
3.6
3.9

138.9
139.7
140.4
141.6

1.2
2.3
2.0
3.5

2.0
2.0
2.0
2.2

102.750
103.040
103.420
103.690

1.0
1.1
1.5
1.0

1.4
1.2
1.3
1.2

136.2
137.3
138.8
139.7

3.3
3.3
4.4
2.6

3.5
3.5
3.8
3.4

133.7
134.9
136.5
137.5

4.0
3.6
4.8
3.0

4.0
4.0
4.2
3.9

142.2
143.2
144.1
144.9

1.7
2.8
2.5
2.2

2.4
2.5
2.6
2.3

4

104.250
104.630
104.900
105.310

2.2
1.5
1.0
1.6

1.5
1.5
1.4
1.6

140.3
141.8
143.1
144.5

1.7
4.3
3.7
4.0

3.0
3.3
3.1
3.4

138.1
139.7
140.9
142.2

1.8
4.7
3.5
3.7

3.3
3.6
3.2
3.4

145.4
146.8
148.2
149.9

1.4
3.9
3.9
4.7

2.3
2.5
2.8
3.5

2000 1
2
3

106.170
106.800
107.310

3.3
2.4
1.9

1.8
2.1
2.3

146.6
148.2
149.7

5.9
4.4
4.1

4.5
4.5
4.6

143.9
145.4
146.7

4.9
4.2
3.6

4.2
4.1
4.1

153.4
155.3
157.0

9.7
5.0
4.5

5.5
5.8
5.9

2
3
4

1998 1
2

3
4
1999

1

2
3

Expo~s

1996
1997
1998
1999
1997 1

Impo~s

Billions
of 1996 $

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Billions
of 1996 $

874.163
981.458
1003.557
1032.963

8.2
12.3
2.3
2.9

963.128
1094.778
1224.579
1355.333

Nontarm Output per Hour

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Nonfarm Compensatioi~Hr

Index

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Index

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

8.6
13.7
11.9
10.7

105.4
107.3
110.2
113.4

2.5
1.8
2.7
2.9

109.8
112.9
118.6
124.4

3.0
2.8
5.0
4.9

940.346
979.229
1004.186
1002.071

7.5
17.6
10.6
—0.8

11.1
13.9
15.8
8.5

1034.322
1079.801
1123.758
1141.230

15.3
18.8
17.3
6.4

12.3
13.6
14.3
14.3

106.1
107.1
108.0
108.1

0.8
3.8
3.4
0.4

1.4
1.4
2.4
2.1

111.7
112.0
113.0
114.7

2.2
1.1
3.6
6.2

3.0
2.4
2.4
3.2

1004.509
996.826
988.775
1024.117

1.0
—3.0
—3.2
15.1

6.8
1.8
—1.5
2.2

1179.803
1216.575
1232.900
1269.017

14.2
13.1
5.5
12.2

14.1
12.7
9.7
11.2

109.3
109.8
110.3
111.2

4.5
1.8
1.8
3.3

3.0
2.5
2.1
2.9

116.4
117.9
119.4
120.8

6.1
5.3
5.2
4.8

4.2
5.3
5.7
5.3

4

1003.277
1017.613
1042.588
1068.376

—7.9
5.8
10.2
10.3

—0.1
2.1
5.4
4.3

1283.060
1332.170
1385.190
1420.903

4.5
16.2
16.9
10.7

8.8
9.5
12.4
12.0

112.0
112.1
113.6
115.8

2.9
0.4
5.5
8.0

2.5
2.1
3.0
4.1

122.1
123.6
125.2
126.5

4.4
5.0
5.3
4.2

4.9
4.8
4.9
4.7

2000 1
2

1084.819
1121.787

6.3
14.3

8.1
10.2

1461.653
1525.219

12.0
18.6

13.9
14.5

116.3
118.1

1.7
6.3

3.8
5.4

127.8
129.6

4.2
5.8

4.7
4.9

3

1162.698

15.4

11.5

1587.745

17.4

14.6

119.2

3.8

4.9

131.6

6.3

5.1

2
3
4

1998 1
2

3
4
1999 1

2
3

Federal Reserve E ink of St. Louis

National EconomicTrends
Household Survey Employment
Thousands

12R~1IOO

Nonfarm Payroll Employment

Change

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Thousands Change

Noniarm Aggregate Hours

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Index

Percent chanqe
Monthly Annual
Year
rate
rate
ago

1995

124908

1837

1.5

117188

3053

2.7

133.4

2.7

1996

126715

1807

1.4

119597

2409

2.1

136.6

2.4

1997

129565

2850

2.2

122677

3080

2.6

141.4

3.5

1998
1999

131463
133492

1898
2030

1.5
1.5

125845
128772

3168
2926

2.6
2.3

145.2
148.3

2.7
2.1

1

130861

413

1.3

1.8

124748

793

2.6

2.7

144.2

0.8

3.1

3.3

2

131256
131526
132208

394
270
682

1.2
0.8
2.1

1.5
1.2
1.3

125486
126180
126967

737
695
787

2.4
2.2
2.5

2.6
2.6
2.4

144.7
145.5
146.4

0.4
0.5
0.7

1.5
2.0
2.7

2.6
2.5
2.3

4

133077
133214
133526
134153

869
137
312
626

2.7
0.4
0.9
1.9

1.7
1.5
1.5
1.5

127800
128430
129073
129783

833
630
644
710

2.6
2.0
2.0
2.2

2.4
2.3
2.3
2.2

147.1
147.8
148.5
149.6

0.5
0.5
0.5
0.7

1.9
1.9
1.8
2.9

2.0
2.1
2.1
2.1

1
2

135247
135200

1095
—47

3.3
—0.1

1.6
1.5

130626
131552

843
926

2.6
2.9

2.2
2.4

150.7
151.2

0.8
0.3

3.2
1.2

2.4
2.3

3

134941

—259

—0.8

1.1

131619

67

0.2

2.0

151.2

0.0

0.2

1.8

1998 Oct

131950

28

0.3

1.4

126677

208

2.0

2.4

146.2

0.4

5.1

2.4

Nov

132156

206

1.9

1.2

126939

262

2.5

2.4

146.3

0.1

0.8

2.2

Dec

132517

361

3.3

1.4

127286

347

3.3

2.4

146.8

0.3

4.2

2.4

1999 Jan
Feb

133225
133029

708
—196

6.6
—1.8

1.8
1.6

127463
127883

177
420

1 .7
4.0

2.3
2.5

146.8
147.5

0.0
0.5

0.0
5.9

1.7
2.3

Mar

132976

—53

—0.5

1.6

128054

171

1.6

2.5

147.1

—0.3

—3.2

2.1

Apr
Jun

133054
133190
133398

78
136
208

0.7
1.2
1.9

1.4
1.5
1.6

128282
128377
128630

228
95
253

2.2
0.9
2.4

2.5
2.3
2.3

147.7
147.6
148.2

0.4
—0.1
0.4

5.0
—0.8
5.0

2.4
1.7
2.3

1998

3
4

1999

2000

1
2
3

May
Jul

133399

1

0.0

1.6

128898

268

2.5

2.4

148.5

0.2

2.5

2.3

Aug

133530

131

1.2

1.6

129057

159

1.5

2.2

148.4

—0.1

—0.8

1.9

Sep

133650

120

1.1

1.3

129265

208

2.0

2.2

148.6

0.1

1.6

2.1
2.1

Oct

133940

290

2.6

1.5

129523

258

2.4

2.2

149.3

0.5

5.8

Nov

134098

158

1.4

1.5

129788

265

2.5

2.2

149.6

0.2

2.4

2.3

Dec

134420

322

2.9

1.4

130038

250

2.3

2.2

149.8

0.1

1.6

2.0

2000 Jan
Feb
Mar

135221
135362
135159

801
141
—203

7.4
1.3
—1.8

1.5
1.8
1.6

130387
130482

349
95

3.3
0.9

2.3
2.0

131009

527

5.0

2.3

150.6
150.6
151.0

0.5
0.0
0.3

6.6
0.0
3.2

2.6
2.1
2.7

Apr
May
Jun

135706
134715
135179

547
—991
464

5.0
—8.4
4.2

2.0
1.1
1.3

131419
131590
131647

410
171
57

3.8
1.6
0.5

2.4
2.5
2.3

151.7
150.5

0.5
—0.8

5.7
—9.1

2.7
2.0

151.3

0.5

6.6

2.1

Jul
Aug

—430
163
249

—3.8
1.5
2.2

1.0
1.0
1.1

131607
131528
131723

—40
—79
195

—0.4
—0.7
1.8

2.1
1.9
1.9

151.4

0.1

0.8

2.0

150.9

—0.3

—3.9

1.7

Sep

134749
134912
135161

151.4

0.3

4.0

1.9

Oct

135422

261

2.3

1.1

131860

137

1.3

1.8

151.5

0.1

0.8

1.5

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

I 2~I~O

Retail Sales
Billions
of dollars

1995

5.6

2361.343

5.1

114.418

4.9

1996

5.4
4.9
4.5
4.2

2496.503
2612.931
2745.714
2994.677

5.7
4.7
5.1
9.1

119.445
126.953
132.365
136.980

4.7
4.4
4.5
4.4

668.657
684.020
686.919
706.118

0.9
2.3
0.4
2.8

3.8
9.5
1.7
11.7

3.4
6.1
4.2
6.6

130.897
131.856
132.811
133.895

0.6
0.7
0.7
0.8

3

4.3
4.3
4.2

723.050
739.876
757.371

2.4
2.3
2.4

9.9
9.6
9.8

8.1
8.2
10.3

134.569
136.109
137.721

4

4.1

774.380

2.2

9.3

9.7

1
2

4.1
4.0
4.0

799.014
802.972
814.204

3.2
0.5
1.4

13.3
2.0
5.7

4.5
4.4
4.4

233.751
235.251
237.116

1.4
0.6
0.8

Mar

4.3
4.4
4.2

239.154
241.580
242.316

Apr
May
Jun

4.3
4.2
4.3

Jul

4.4
6.3
4.3
3.5

5.49
5.01
5.06
4.78
4.64

6.58
6.44
6.35
5.26
5.64

2.4
3.0
2.9
3.3

5.7
4.8
3.8
2.9

5.05
4.98
4.82
4.26

5.59
5.60
5.20
4.67

0.5
1.1
1.2

2.0
4.7
4.8

2.8
3.2
3.7

139.521

1.3

5.3

4.2

4.41
4.45
4.65
5.04

4.98
5.54
5.88
6.14

10.5
8.5
7.5

141.724
144.528
145.835

1.6
2.0
0.9

6.5
8.2
3.7

5.3
6.2
5.9

5.52
5.71
6.02

6.48
6.18
5.89

17.6
8.0
9.9

6.3
6.5
6.9

134.108
133.777
133.801

0.4
—0.2
0.0

5.1
—2.9
0.2

3.5
2.8
2.5

3.96
4.42
4.39

4.53
4.83
4.64

0.9
1.0
0.3

10.8
12.9
3.7

7.7
8.5
8.2

134.052
134.509
135.147

0.2
0.3
0.5

2.3
4.2
5.8

2.4
2.9
3.1

4.34
4.44
4.44

4.72
5.00
5.23

244.556
247.325
247.995

0.9
1.1
0.3

11.7
14.5
3.3

8.1
8.6
7.8

135.472
136.215
136.639

0.2
0.5
0.3

2.9
6.8
3.8

2.9
2.9
3.9

4.29
4.50
4.57

5.18
5.54
5.90

4.3
4.2
4.2

250.003
253.458
253.910

0.8
1.4
0.2

10.2
17.9
2.2

9.5

137.363
137.736
138.064

0.5
0.3
0.2

6.5
3.3
2.9

4.6
3.1
3.4

4.55

5.79

11.1
10.1

4.72
4.68

5.94
5.92

4.1
4.1
4.1

255.263
257.489
261.628

0.5
0.9
1.6

6.6
11.0
21.1

9.2
9.5
10.3

139.056
139.433
140.075

0.7
0.3
0.5

9.0
3.3
5.7

3.7
4.2
4.7

4.86
5.07
5.20

6.11
6.03
6.28

263.493
267.164
268.357

0.7
1.4

8.9
18.1

10.2
10.6

141.117
141.635

0.7
0.4

9.3
4.5

5.3
5.3

5.32
5.55

6.66
6.52

Mar

4.0
4.1
4.1

0.4

5.5

10.7

142.419

0.6

6.8

5.4

5.69

6.26

Apr
May
Jun

3.9
4.1
4.0

267.119

—0.5

—5.4

9.2

1.3
4.7

8.1
8.2

9.8
10.3
5.4

5.9
6.2
6.4

5.99

0.1
0.4

0.8
0.8
0.4

5.66

267.417
268.436

143.528
144.709
145.347

5.79
5.69

6.44
6.10

Jul
Aug
Sep

4.0
4.1
3.9

270.645
270.549
273.010

0.8
—0.0
0.9

10.3
—0.4
11.5

8.3
6.7
7.5

145.114
145.902

—0.2
0.5

—1.9
6.7

5.6
5.9

146.490

0.4

4.9

6.1

5.96
6.09
6.00

6.05
5.83
5.80

Oct

3.9

273.170

0.1

0.7

7.0

146.316

—0.1

—1.4

5.2

6.11

5.74

1
3
4

2000

Yields

10—yr

2

1
2

3

1998 Oct
Nov

Dec
1999 Jan
Feb

Aug

Sep
Oct
Nov

Dec
2000 Jan
Feb

Index

Treasury
3—mo

1998
1999

1999

Percent change
Monthly! Annual
Year
quarterly rate
ago

Unempl.
Rate
1997

1998

Industrial Production

Percent change
Monthly! Annual
Year
quarterly rate
ago

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

12.iOI~O

Consumer Price Index
less Food and Energy

Consumer PriceIndex
Index

Year
to date

Index

Percent chance
Monthly! Annual
Year
quarterly rate
ago

1995
1996

152.5
157.0

2.8
2.9

161.4
165.8

3.0
2.7

1997

160.6
163.1
166.7

2.3
1.6
2.2

169.7
173.7
177.3

2.4
2.3
2.1

1998
1999

1998

Percent chance
Monthly! Annual
Year
quarterly
rate
ago

1
2

ProducerPrice Index
FinishedGoods
Year
to date

Index

Percent chance
Monthly! Annual
Year
quarterly rate
ago

127.9
131.3
131.8
130.7
133.0

1.9
2.6
0.4
—0.9
1.8

0.2
0.4
0.4
0.4

1.0
1.7
1.7
1.7

1.5
1.6
1.6
1.5

1.0
1.3
1.5
1.5

172.2
173.2
174.2
175.1

0.7
0.6
0.5
0.5

2.7
2.5
2.2
2.1

2.3
2.2
2.4
2.4

2.7
2.6
2.5
2.4

130.6

—0.8

—3.0

—1.6

4

162.1
162.8
163.5
164.2

130.5
130.6
131.0

—0.0
0.1
0.3

—0.1
0.2
1.1

—0.7
—0.6
—0.5

1

164.9

0.4

1.7

1.7

1.7

175.9

0.5

1.9

2.2

1.9

131.4

0.4

1.4

0.7

2

3

166.2
167.2

0.8
0.6

3.3
2.5

2.1
2.3

2.5
2.5

176.8
177.7

0.7

2.9

2.6

2.6

178.7

2.1
2.0
2.1

2.0
2.0
2.1

0.7
1.0

168.4

2.1
1.9
2.3

132.3
133.6

4

0.5
0.5
0.6

134.7

0.8

2.7
4.0
3.4

1.4
2.3
2.9

1
2

170.2
171.7
173.0

1.0
0.9
0.8

4.3
3.7
3.1

3.2
3.3
3.5

4.3
4.0
3.7

179.8
181.1
182.2

0.6
0.7
0.6

2.5
3.0
2.4

2.2
2.4
2.5

2.5
2.7
2.6

136.3
137.5
138.3

1.2
0.8
0.6

4.8
3.4
2.4

3.7
3.9
3.5

1998 Oct
Nov
Dec

163,9
164,2

0.2
0.2

2.2
2.2

1.4
1.5

1.6
1.6

164.4

0.1

1.5

1.6

1.6

174.7
175,0
175.5

0.1
0.2
0.3

1.4
2.1
3.5

2.3
2.3
2.5

2.4
2.4
2.5

131.0
130.8
131.1

0.3
—0.2
0.2

3.7
—1.8
2.8

—0.7
—0.6
—0.1

1999 Jan
Feb

164.7

0.2
0.1
0.2

2.2
0.7
2.2

1.7
1.7
1.8

2.2
1.5
1.7

175.8
175.8
176.1

0.2
0.0
0.2

2.1
0.0
2.1

2.3
2.1
2.1

2.1
1 .0
1.4

131.6

164.8
165.1

131.1
131.6

0.4
—0.4
0.4

4.7
—4.5
4.7

0.8
0.5
0.8

166.2
166.2
166.2

0.7
0.0
0.0

8.3
0.0
0.0

2.3
2.1
2.0

3.3
2.6
2.2

176.7
176.8
177.0

0.3
0.1
0.1

4.2
0.7
1.4

2.2
2.0
2.0

2.1
1.8
1.7

132.2
132.3
132.4

0.5
0.1
0.1

5.6
0.9
0.9

1.2
1.4
1.5

166.7

3.7
3.7
4.4

2.1
2.3
2.6

2.4
2.6
2.8

177.4
177.5
178.1

0.2
0.1
0.3

2.7
0.7
4.1

2.1
1.9
2.1

1.9
1.7
2.0

1.5

133.5
134.6

0.2
0.6
0.8

2.8

Sep

0.3
0.3
0.4

132.7

167.2
167.8

7.5
10.3

2.4
3.1

Oct
Nov
Dec

168.1
168.4
168.8

0.2
0.2
0.2

2.2
2.2
2.9

2.6
2.6
2.7

2.7
2.7
2.7

178.4
178.7
178.9

0.2
0.2
0.1

2.0
2.0
1.4

2.1
2.1
1.9

2.0
2.0
1.9

134.6
134.7
134.9

0.0
0.1
0.1

0.0
0.9
1.8

2.7
3.0
2.9

2000 Jan
Feb

169.2
170.1
171.3

0.2
0.5
0.7

2.9
6.6
8.8

2.7
3.2
3.8

2.9
4.7
6.1

179.3
179.6
180.4

0.2
0.2
0.4

2.7
2.0
5.5

2.0
2.2
2.4

2.7
2.4
3.4

135.0
136.5
137.5

0.1
1.1
0.7

0.9
14.2
9.2

2.6
4.1
4.5

171.3
171.5
172.4

0.0
0.1
0.5

0.0
1.4
6.5

3.1
3.2
3.7

4.5
3.9
4.3

180.8
181.1
181.4

0.2
0.2
0.2

2.7
2.0
2.0

2.3
2.4
2.5

3.2
3.0
2.8

137.0
137.1
138.3

—0.4
0.1
0.9

—4.3
0.9
11.0

3.6
3.6
4.5

Sep

172.8
172.7
173.6

0.2
—0.1
0.5

2.8
—0.7
6.4

3.7
3.3
3.5

4.1
3.5
3.8

181.8
182.1
182.6

0.2
0.2
0.3

2.7
2.0
3.3

2.5
2.6
2.5

2.8
2.7
2.8

138.1
137.8
139.0

—0.1
—0.2
0.9

—1.7
—2.6
11.0

4.1
3.2
3.3

Oct

173.9

0.2

2.1

3.5

3.6

182.9

0.2

2.0

2.5

2.7

139.5

0.4

4.4

3.6

3
1999

2000

3

Mar

Apr
May

Jun
Jul
Aug

Mar
Apr

May
Jun
Jul
Aug

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Notes
Pages 4, 5: Final sales is gross domestic product (GDP) minus change
in private inventories. Advance, preliminary, and final GDP growth
rates are released during the first, second, and third months of the
following quarter. Changes result from incorporation of more complete
information. Real GDP is measured in 1996 dollars. The Purchasing
Managers’ Index is a weighted average of diffusion indexes for new
orders, production, supplier deliveries, inventories, and employment.
The National Association of Purchasing Management (NAPM) surveys
over 300 firms in 20 manufacturing industries, weighting responses by
industry share of GDP. Aggregate and average weekly hours are
paid hours of production and nonsupervisory employees. The inventory-sales ratio uses nominal (current-dollar) inventory and sales data.
Page 6: Beginning with the October 1999 comprehensive revision to
the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA), a new formula is
used to calculate the contribution of a component to the overall GDP
growth rate. The new formula produces estimates roughly equivalent to
the old formula. For more information, see the October 1999 issue of
the Survey of Current Business, p. 16. The sign is changed for imports.
Page 7: Ten-year Treasury yields are adjusted to constant maturity.
Three-month yields are secondary market averages, but all rates used in
the yield curves are adjusted to constant maturity. Standard and
Poor’s 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends shows the total return:
capital gains plus dividends.
Pages 8,9: Oil prices are monthly averages of daily spot prices for
West Texas intermediate crude (Wall Street Journal). Consumer price
index is for all urban consumers. The consumption chain price index
is the index associated with the personal consumption expenditures
component of GDP. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) covers private nonfarm employers. ECI compensation refers to a fixed sample
of jobs, while compensation per hour covers all workers in the nonfarm business sector in a given quarter. In both cases, compensation is
wages and salaries plus benefits.
Pages 10,11: Nonfarm payroll employment is counted in a survey of
about 390,000 establishments (Current Employment Survey). It excludes self-employed individuals and workers in private households,
but double-counts individuals with more than one job. The household
survey (Current Population Survey) of about 50,000 households provides estimates of civilian employment, unemployment rate, labor force
participation rate, and employment-population ratio. Population is
civilian, noninstitutional, 16 years and over. New population controls
introduced in January 2000 affect levels and growth rates of household
survey employment, labor force and population. The unemployment
rate and other series were minimally affected. 90 percent confidence
intervals for the unemployment rate (± 0.2 percentage points) and
change in household survey employment (± 376,000) measure uncertainty due to sample size. The available labor supply is the sum of the
unemployed and those persons not in the labor force but who want to
work now. The household survey was significantly changed in January
1994, so care should be exercised in making short-term comparisons
around this date, particularly with the duration data shown on page 10.
Pages 13: The Michigan consumer sentiment index shows changes in
a summary measure of consumers’ answers to five questions about their
current and expected financial situation, expectations about future
economic conditions, and attitudes about making large purchases. The
survey is based on a representative sample of U.S. households.
Pages 14, 15: Overall gross saving includes government saving, which
is the sum of the government surplus and capital consumption (see
notes for pages 16 and 17). Net foreign investment (NFI) is U.S.
investment abroad minus foreign investment in the U.S. Aside from a
statistical discrepancy, NFI also equals the difference between gross
domestic investment and saving. The comprehensive revision introduced the equipment & software component of business investment.

Pages 16, 17: Government consumption and investment is current
expenditures on goods and services, including capital consumption
(depreciation) and gross investment, as reported in the NIPAs. The
unified federal budget deficit differs from NIPA basis in four main
ways: (1) NIPA excludes transactions involving existing assets; (2)
NIPA outlays exclude government investment and include consumption
of government capital, while unified budget outlays do the reverse; (3)
NIPA accounts exclude Puerto Rico and U.S. territories; and (4) various timing issues are handled differently. Outlays and receipts are
from the NIPAs, except as noted. Since 1977, the federal fiscal year
starts on October 1. Excluded agency debt was 0.6 percent of federal
debt at the end of fiscal 1997. Federal debt held by the public includes holdings of the Federal Reserve System and excludes holdings
of the social security and other federal trust funds. Federal grants in aid
to state and local governments appear in both state and local receipts
and federal outlays.
Pages 18, 19: The trade balance (shown on a balance of payments
basis) is the difference between exports and imports of goods (merchandise) and services. It is nearly identical in concept to the net exports component of GDP, but differs slightly in accounting details.
The investment income balance equals income received from U.S.owned assets in other countries minus income paid on foreign-owned
assets in the U.S. The investment income balance is nearly identical in
concept to the difference between gross national product and gross
domestic product, but differs in accounting details. The current account balance is the trade balance plus the balance on investment
income plus net unilateral transfers to the U.S. from other countries.
Pages 20, 21: Output per hour (Y/H), unit labor cost (C/Y), and
compensation per hour (C/H) are indexes which approximately obey
the following relationship: %(Y/H) + %(C/Y) = %(C/H) with %()
meaning percent changes. Unit labor cost is shown on page 9. Real
compensation per hour uses the CPI to adjust for the effects of inflation. Nonfarm business accounted for about 76 percent of the value of
GDP in 1996, while nonfinancial corporations accounted for about 54
percent. Inventory valuation adjustments (IVA) remove the effect of
changes in the value of existing inventories from corporate profits and
proprietors’ income. (This change in value does not correspond to
current production and therefore is not part of GDP). Capital consumption adjustments (CCAdj) increase profits and proprietors’
income by the difference between estimates of economic depreciation
and depreciation allowed by the tax code. Components of national
income not shown are rental income of persons and net interest.

Sources
Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Dept. of Commerce
National income and product accounts, international trade and investment data (except by country), auto and light truck sales
Census Bureau, U.S. Dept. of Commerce
Inventory-sales ratios, retail sales, capital goods orders, housing
starts, exports and imports by country
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Dept. of Labor
All employment-related data, employment cost index, consumer and
producer price indexes, unit labor cost, output per hour, compensation per hour, multifactor productivity
United States Department of Treasury
Unified budget receipts, outlays, deficit, debt
Federal Reserve Board
Index of industrial production, treasury yields, exchange rates, capacity utilization, household debt
The Survey Research Center, The University of Michigan
Consumer sentiment index
The Conference Board
Help-wanted advertising index
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
GDP for major trading partners (not available on FRED)