Full text of National Economic Trends : December 1996

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DECEMBER 1996

N ational
Economic
Trends
Equity Prices and Inflation
The recent rally in equity prices has captured con­
siderable attention. The Standard and Poor’s (S&P)
500 index increased more than 14 percent through the
first ten months of 1996, on top of sizable gains in
1995. During stock rallies of this magnitude, analysts
sometimes refer to “equity price inflation.” Is there
such a thing? Should the Fed be concerned about in­
flation risks when the prices of stocks are rising at a
rapid pace? The short answer is no: The pace of in­
crease in stock prices is not itself inflationary, nor are
stock prices particularly useful in helping to gauge
inflation trends.
The purchase of stocks is a form of saving, and
constitutes a decision by households to defer con­
sumption today in order to, hopefully, be able to
consume more in the future than they otherwise could.
Inflation normally refers to a general rise in the prices
of goods and services that people con­
sume, and is often measured by the rate
of change in the consumer price index
Percent
(CPI). Since stocks are financial assets,
not final consumption, the prices of
stocks are not part of measured inflation.
In particular, most theories would hold
that the value of the stock market should
rise over time, on average, even in a zero
inflation economy
Because investors purchasing stocks
expect a positive real return, they will
demand compensation for any loss of
purchasing power during the time they
hold a stock. This means that total nomi­
nal returns to holding stocks will have an
expected inflation component as well as
an expected real component. In this

sense, stock prices do reflect underlying inflation, and
a rally in stocks has to be viewed from the perspective
of how much of the observed return is compensation
for inflation, and how much is a real return. In prac­
tice, however, observed total returns to holding stocks
are so volatile that they give little indication of under­
lying inflation trends.
The chart bears this out. It compares the total
nominal returns (capital gains plus dividends) from
investing in the S&P 500 index with consumer price
inflation. The data are monthly, and rates of change
are measured from one year earlier. Equity returns
have been far more volatile than CPI inflation over
this period. From the chart it is also clear that the
recent rally in stock prices is not particularly unusual
when compared to the historical record since 1971.
— James Bullard

Equity Prices and Inflation

Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System
National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. For more information on data, please
call (314) 444-8573. Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing Public Affairs Office, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office
Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or by calling (314) 444-8808 or (314) 444-8809. Information in this publication is also included in the Federal Reserve

Economic
Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board at (314) 621-1824 or internet World Wide Web server at http://www.stls.frb.org/fred.


Table of Contents
Page
3-4
5-6
7-8
9
10
11
12-13
14
15
16-17
18-21
22
23
24
25-27

Nominal and Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Price Deflators
Consumer and Producer Prices
Employment Costs
Productivity and Unit Labor Cost
Industrial Production
Employment and Unemployment
Real Personal Income
Retail Sales
Inventories and Final Sales
Components of Real GDP
U.S. International Transactions
Gross Saving and Investment
Corporate Profits and Cash Flow
Government Budget Data

How to Use the Triangles in This Publication
This publication makes extensive use of “triangles” to present compound annual rates of change over various periods.
Consider the simple, abbreviated triangle below for quarterly Real Gross Domestic Product from the third quarter of
1994 to the second quarter of 1996. From this triangle, the reader can obtain rates of change from any date on the
top row to any date along the left column; actual dollar figures for the periods in the left-most column are shown in
the right-most column. In our example, the compound annual rate of growth from IV/1994 to 1/1996 can be found at
the intersection of the IV/1994 column and the 1/1996 row, a 1.4 percent rate; similarly, the annual rate of change
from III/1994 to II/1996 is 2.1 percent. Reading down the diagonal gives the growth rate from one quarter to the next.

Real Gross Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
Annual Rates

Initial Quarter
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
1-96
2-96

- #




3-94
3.0
1.7
1.4
2.0
1.6
1.7
2.1

4-94
0.4
0.6
1.6
1.3
* 1.4
2.0

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

-$

0.7
2.3
1.6
1.7
2.3

3.8
2.0
2.0
2.7

2

0.3
1.1
2.3

•.l,7

2.0
3.3

4.7

6693.854
6701.036
6713.524
6776.406
6780.715
6814.310
6892.553

Gross Domestic Product
Seasonally Adjusted
Trillions of Dollars

Trillions of Dollars

Real GDP is chain-weight quantity index scaled to 1992 dollars.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-91

1-92

1-92

8.2

2 92

6.7

5.3

3-92

6.0

5.0

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

Initial Quarter
4-93 1-94 2-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

2-96
6,201.2
6,271.7
6,383.0

63

5.7

5.9

73

5.8

5.2

5.2

53

3.8

2-93

5.5

5.0

4.9

5.0

3.9

4.0

3-93

5.3

4.9

4.8

4.8

4.0

4.1

6,442.6
6,506.2
4.3

6,574.4

4 93

5.6

5.2

5.2

5.3

48

5.1

5.7

7.1

1*94
2-94

5-5
57

$2

5.2

4.9

5.2

5.6

6.2

5.3

5.4

54

5.3
5.5

52

55

59

65

6.1

3-94

5,7
5.7

5.5 - 5.5
54
5.5

5.6

5.4

5.6

5.9

56

5.3

56

58

5.5
5.4

5.3

5.3

5.4

5.2

5.3

5.1

5.1

5.2

5.0

5.1

5.4

5.2

5.2

5.1 ■:|,2

2-95

4-94

4.6

1-93

1-95

3-94

6,121.8

4-92

4-94

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates

6,688.6

6.4
6.1

6.1
5.9

S3
5.2

53

6.1
57

5.3

5.5

5.5

5.0

4.5

33

54

51

5.0

4.6

4.1

3.5

3.1

5.4
51

5.2
48

5.2

4.5
4.1

4.3
3.8

4.5

4.8

4.8
44

43!
4.9

mm

4.4

4.1

3.9

4.9

46

4.4

4.8

43

1-94

2-94

5.2

5.0

5.0

5.2
5.0

4.8

4.9

5.3
5.0

1-96

5.1

4.9

4.9

4.9

4.8

4.9

4.9

2-96

5.2

5.0

5.0

5 1

4.9

5.0

5.1

50
5.1

3-96

5.1

5.0

4.9

5.0

4.8

4,9

4.9

5.0 - 4.8

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

Third quarter data are preliminary estimates.

mm

3-93

4-93

6,890.5

.

61

3-95
4-95




6,776.0
6.9

6,993.1
7,083.2
7,149.8
7,204.9

¡¡BlSI

3.8

6.0
4.1

32

4.2

Iflllllj!

4.3

4.4

4-1
4.7

4.3

5.4

6.5

4.3

42

4.3

4.5

4.1

4 3 11ÉÌ11

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

-

7,309.8
7,350.6

2.3

4-95

1-96

7,426.8
7,545.1
3.6

7,611.8

2-96

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
December 2,1996

Real Gross Domestic Product
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Trend is ten-year moving average of chain-weight (1992 dollar) growth rate. The fixed-weight trend
(not shown) differs only slightly.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Gross Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-91

1-92

1*92

4.7

2 92

36

25

3-92

3,4

2-92

3-92 4-92
'■
?!?

2-93

3-93

4-92

37

1É1IM
2 93

2.9

2.4

ZA

2.7

iü

2.7

2.3
2.3

4 93

2.9

2.7

2.7

—
2-94

0Q

2.7

2.3

20

09

1.9

2.3

2.1

1.4

2.1

2.3

2.7

2.2

3.0

3.6

4.8

2.9

3.2

3.6

: 2.7 l i ü l ■ i l l
3.0
2.9
2.7

6393.434
6469.055
;

zs

3.3

3.6

4.1

3.7

49

3.6

3.9

3.6

42

3.0

2.9

3.3

3.5

3.7

3.5

2.8

3.1

3.2

2.6

2.6
24

2.9

26

2.8
2.6

27

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.5

2.8

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.3

2.6

2,5

25

2A

30

1-95
2-95

2,9

2.8

2.8

3-95

2.8

4-95
1-96

3.8

m

2.3

2.8

25

1.9

1.4

0.6

0.7

2.9

3.0

2.7

2.7

2.3

2.0

1.6

2.3

3.8

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.4

19

16

13

16

2.0

0.3

6780.715

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.3

2.3

2.0

1.7

1.4

1,7

2.0

1.1

0814.310

2.6

2.3

2.1

2.0

2.3

2.7

2.3

2.7

26

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.6

2.7

2-6
1-92

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.6

2.7

2.7

2.5 '

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93




6587.574

6644.898

2.9
28 ’ 2 5

2-96

Third quarter data are preliminary estimates.

6500.519

3.5
3.3

3-96

4-91

6260.927

6356.530

3.3

3.1

6175.316

6327.306

*0.1

28

3.0

3-95 4-95
s|

0320,432

2.1

3.0

2.9

3.1

4-94 1-95 2-95
* '* f
'

lï llllll

3.0
3.0

3.1

3*94
4-94

3-94

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
1-96 2-96
X” / / v'
6214.219

2.8 1 1 1 l l l i i i i l
3.7
33
4.3

ii

1-93

Initial Quarter
4-93 1-94 2-94

4-93

1-94

2-94

3.0
' 1,7

0.4

3-94

6693.854

4-94

.;■■■_

1-95

2-95

'

6701.036
6713.524

6776.406

À \

3-95

3.3
4-95

4.7
w s is a ii
1-96

6892.553

092&210

2-96

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
December 2,1996

GDP Chain Price Index
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent
5.11—

Percent
----- 5.1

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

GDP Chain Price Index
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-91

1-92

2-92

3.4
31

2.8

3 -m

ZJ5

2.1

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

Initial Quarter
4-93 1-94 2-94

1992=100
3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

4-95

3-95

1-96

2-96
99.137
99.813

i l l
2.1

llllflp jlft

,

100.876

4-92

2.6

2.3

1-93

2.7

2-93

2.9
2.7

2.6

2.6

3.0

3.0

2.2

3-93

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.7

2.6

2.0

1.6

4-93

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.5

2.1

2.0

2.3

1-94

2.6
2.5

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.4

2.5

2.2

8 *
22

2.6

2.4

2.6
25

2.3

2-94
3-94

2,6

2.4

24

23

2.4

2.4

2.5

22
2.2

2.3
2.3

ÌÉ É
2.3

2.1

25

2.S
2.4

2.4

4-94

2.2
2.2

2.1

22

2.1

1-95

2.5

2.5

2.5
2.5

2.5
2.5

24

2,4

2,4

2.6

2.?,

2.4

2.4

:2.5 il 2.5
2.5
2.5

2.4

2.6

2.5
2.4

2,3:1
2.3

2.3
2.3

2.4
2.4

2.6
25

2.3
2.3

2,5
2.4
«4

2.8

2.7 - 3.3

2-95

2.5

2.5

2.4
2.4

3-95
4-95

2.5

2.4
2.4

23

2.5

2.4
2.4

1-96

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.4

2-96

2.5

2.4

2.4

3-96

2.4

2.4

4-91

1-92

101.832

3.8

2.5

102.386

2.4

24 à
2.4
2.3

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.3

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

- v ....

2.3

,7

-

................... .

*
.

i.

's „

,

102.833

, _____

103.415
29
2.4

1Ô4.149
104.632

1.9
.

llllflil

2.4
2.4
2.4
2.3

2.3

2.4

«>3

2.4
23

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

S*
2-94

^

'■

%

* (v

105.248
105.802

v ■■

Third quarter data are preliminary estimates.




100.174

3.3
2.9
26

%

<

106.676
2.4

2.4

2.5

22
2.2

2.4

2.4

2.2

107.309
21
2.1

2.1

2.2

2.2

107.855
108.419
109.027

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

2.2

2.2

2.1

2.0

4-95

1-96

109.619
AA
2-96

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
December 2, 1996

110.137

GDP Fixed-Weight Price Index
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-91

1-92

2-92

3,3
31

2.9

3-92

2.6

1-92

2-92

4-92

3-92

1-93

2-93

1992=100

Initial Quarter
4-93 1-94 2-94

3-93

“ 's

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

4-95

3-95

1-96

2-96
99.1

'

99.8

■&

1.6

4-92

2.6

2.2
24

2.2

2.8

1-93

2.8

2.7

2,7

3.2

3.6

2-93

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.9

3.0

2.4

- .......-

;

m 2

100.9

- ' <•<-"

<s- •(/ ' - ' llll

1QÌ.8

- s<-

102.4

3-93

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.7

2.7

2.2

2.0

4-93

2.6

2.5

25

2.6

2.6

2.2

2.2

2.4

102JB

.
103.5

1-94

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.7

3.1

2-94

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.6

24

2.3

2.5

2.5

1.9

104.8

3-94

2-6

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.4

2*4

2.5

2.8

2.3

105.5

4-94

2.6

25

2.5

26

25

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.3

2.5

2.3

1-95

2.6

2.6

2.6

27

2.6

2.5

OK
¿.o

Oft
cx>

2.7

23

2.8

29

3.4

26

3.0

2-95

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.7

3-95

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.6

1

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.6

2.8

2.8

23

23

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.7

2

2.6

2.6

106.1

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.5

1-96

2.6

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.6

té

.. ...........

2-96

26

2.5

2.5
2.5

2.6

2.6

25

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.5 m m

2.$

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.5
2; ft

2.5
2«

2.6

3-96

4-91

1-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

3-92

107.0
107.7

2.6
lliliii

4-95

2-92

1Ô4.3

2.6

2.4

2.2

108.3

2.2

108.9
2.6

2.4
1-95

23
2-95

Third quarter data are preliminary estimates.

2.3
3-95

i0% £
110.2

2.4

2.2

2.2

2.0

1.8

4-95

1-96

2-96

110.7

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
December 2, 1996

Personal Consumption Expenditure Chain Price Index
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-91

1-92

2-92

1-92

3.7

2-92

35

33

3-92
4-92

3.1
3.2

2.8 ..2.4

3-92

1-93

2-93

Initial Quarter
4-93 1-94 2-94

3-93

1992=100
3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

2-96
98.903

i

2-93

3.0

2.9

2.8

3.2
4«
CM
2.9

3-93

2.8

2.6

2.5

2.5

3.1

4-92

30

2.8

Itp&Il OQ

s' . .“ s’ 1 "

n(..9
o
2.7

2.6

2.2

;

99.703

j

g ill»

%ü I Bil
........... m m m

....

f

§|||§|§É '' "'''S/S

100*298
101.097

~

:

lU l, 817
102.473

.... ;i

4-93

2.8

2.6

25

2.5

2.4

1.9
2.2

2.0

2.7

1-94

2.7

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.2

2.1

2.5

2.4

2-94

2.7

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.3

2.2

2.1

2.4

2.3

2.3

3-94

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.7

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.5

27
2.5

2.8

2.7

2.5
2.4

2.4

4-94

2.6
2.5

2.5

2.7

1.9

106.054

1-95
2-95

27

2.6
2.6

2.5

111

2.4

2.4

2-4 2-5

2.5

23

2.5

2.5

24

2.4

2.6

2.5

2.6

2.3
2.4

m?m

2.5

2.6
2.7

2.7

2.7

3-95

2.6

2.5
2.4

2.4

2.4

2.4

|; |l |||

2.3

2.4

2.!4

2.4

2.4

2.2

23

2.1

1.5

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.1

2.1

1.9

1.5

1.6

2.4

2.4
2.4

2.4

2.3

2.3

22

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.|
2.4

2.3

2.3

2.1

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.3

23

2J3

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.4

1.6

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

2-96

2.7

4-95

2.5

1-96

2-5
2.5

2-96
3-96

2.5

-•2 .5

2.4

2.4

4-91

1-92

2-92

1.3

102.792
103.483

:.......................

104.675
3.4

1Q5J49

107.457
107.846
108.279

I

■ S H I
2.4

2.4

Third quarter data are preliminary estimates.




194.089

6

2.3

2.8

109.763
110.202

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
December 2,1996

Consumer Price Index
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1990

1991

1992

1993

Percent

1994

1995

1996

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Consumer Price Index
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

Initial Month
9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95 1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

6-96

7-96

8-96

9-96

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

6-96

7-96

8-96

9-96




1-96

1982-84=100

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
December 2,1996

Producer Price Index -

Finished Goods

Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent
8

-2

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Producer Price Index - Finished Goods
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

7-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

0.9

0.3

-0.9

0.0

7-95

8-95

Initial Month
9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95 1-96

1982=100
2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

6-96

7-96

8-96

9-96

127.7

0.9
0.5 -0.3
0.5
0..9............... ..........
........................................
9-95

1.4

1.1

0.7

1.6

2.4

3.8

1-5

1-3

0-8

1-7

2.2

2.9

128.2

1.3
128.8

3-96

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.8

3.2

3.5

3.5

3.8

3.8

2.5

2.8

6.7

5-96

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.7

3.0

3.2

3.2

3.4

3.3

2.4

2.6

3.8

2.3

1.9

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96




8

130.4
130.9

5-96

6-96

7-96

8-96

9-96

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
December 2,1996

Employment Cost Index and Its Components
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent
9

-7

-3

1

Compensation is the sum of wages, salaries and benefits for private industry workers.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Employment Cost Index - Compensation
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

Initial Quarter
4-93 1-94 2-94

June 1989=100
3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

2-96

|||||i||p |

1-92
2-92

4,0
3.2

25

3-92

3,4

3,0

3,6

4 92

3.4

3.2

3.5

3.5

1-93

3,6

3.5

3.9
3.7

4.2
3.8

3.5

3.7

3.7

3.5

113.0

113.7
-

114.7
115.7

2-93

3.5

3.5

3.8
3.7

3-93

3.5

3.5

3.6

4-93

3.5

3.4

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.4

3.4

34

1-94

3.5

3.4

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.3

3.3

3.2

2-94

3.4

3.4

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.0
3.2

3-94
4-94

3,4
3.3

3.4

3,5
3.3

3.5

3.3

3.3

3.2

3,3
3.1

33
3.1

3.2
3.0

3.3

3.3

3.5
3.4

3.0

2.8

2.3

1-95

3.3

3.3

3,3

3.3

3.2

3,1

3.1

3.0

3.0

2.9

3.3

3.2

3.3

3.3

3.1

3.1

3.0

3.0

3.0

2.9

2.6
2.7

2.9

2-95

3.3
3.2

2.9

2.9

3-95

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.0
3.0

3.0

2.9

2.9

2.8

2.8

116.9
117.9
3.4

118.9
119.9
120.8
3.4

121.8
:

3.3

122.8
123.5

'

124.4
125.3

4-95

3.2

3.1

3.2
3.2

3.2

3.1

3.1
3.0

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.8 ; 2.7
27
2.8

2.8

27

2.6

2.6

1-96

3.2

3.1

3.2

3.1

3.1

3.0

3.0

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.7

27

2.7

2.9

2-96

3.2

3.1

3.2

3.1

3.1

3.0

3.0

3.0

2.9

2.9

2.8

2.8

2.8

28

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.2

3-96

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.0

3.0

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.8

27

2.8

2.8

2.7

2L8

2.8

2J

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

Data are for the last month of quarter.




2.6

126.1
126.9
127.8
128.8
JJ
2-96

.

129.6

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
December 2,1996

Business Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Business Sector - Output Per Hour
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

Initial Quarter
4-93 1-94 2-94

1992=100
3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

2-96

8.0

1*92
2-92

5.2

2.4

3-92

3.2

4-92

3.8

0.8
2.4

80.3
99.9
-0,8
2.4

'
57
""

1-93

2.3

1.0

-3 5

1.6

0.9
0.4

0.4

2-93

-0.1

0.1

-2.6

-1.6

3-93

1.5

0.5

0.1

0.3

-1.4

-0.4

0.8

4-93

1.8

09

0.7

1.0

-0.2

09

2.2

3.6

1-94

14

0.6

0.3

0.5

-0.6

0.2

0.8

0.8
0.7

-2.0
-0.8
0J
0.3

13

0.5

0.3

0.5

-0.4

0.2

07

0.7

0.5

07

0.0

0.6

1.0

4-94

1.3

0.7

0.5

0.7

0.0

0.6

0.9

1.1
1.0

0.3

0.4

-0.2

0.2

0.5
0.7

0.5
0.7

-0.2
0.2

0.8

2 95

1.1

0.6

0.4

0.5

0.0

0.4

3-95

1.1

0.7

0.5

0.6

0.2

0.6

4-95

1.0

0.6

05

0.6

0.1

0.5

0.8
0.7

1-96

11

07

0.6

0.7

0.3

0.6

0.8

2-96

1.1

0.7

0.6

0.7

0.3

0.6

0.8

0.3




3-92

4-92

1-93

100.2

2-93

100.0
100.9

1.4

2-92

\

.........

2-94

1-92

'

99.8

3*94

4-91

9Ö.7
101.1

Ì li
0.4

100.5
I I '

I* 4

2.4

1.1
o3

1.4

0.4

0.3

-0.8

*2.0

0.6

0.7

0.1

0.0

2.0

0.4

0.8

0.9

0,5

0.5

1.8

1.6

0.7

0.3

0.6

0.7

0.3

0.3

1.1

0.6

0.8

0,5

8

0.9

0.6

0.6

4

4 4

8

0.8

0.6

0.7

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.5

0.8

0.S

3-93

4-93

100,4

0 .

101.1
101.2

v

100.7
101.2
1Ö1J
-0.4

101.5
102.0

0.8

1.4

0.8

102.2
'

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

.........1 & J

2-96

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
December 2,1996

Industrial Production
Seasonally Adjusted
1987 = 100

1987 = 100

1990
1991
1992
1993
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

~

1994

1995

1996

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Industrial Production
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

Initial Month
9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95 1-96

-4.8

5 95

-2 7

-0 5

'1*5
-0.9

0.2
0.4

0.9
0.8

0.7

8-95
9-95

1.6

3.3

4.5

6.4

12.3

1.5

2.9

3.7

4.6

6.7

1.3

10-95

0.4

1.3

1.6

11-95

09

1.7

2.1

2.3

2.7

-0.3

- 1.1

12-95
1-96

1.0

1.8
1.2

2.1
15

2.3

2.6

0,3

-0,0

1.5

1.7

-0.3

-0.7

3.1
2.2

3.4

3.8

2.4

2,6

2.4

2.6

1.2

1.2

2.9

£A
3.3 ... *$*5* ...... ***
....
2.9
3.1
3.8
46
4.4

7 95

0.6

3-96

4-96

5-96

6-96

7-96

8-96

9-96

m jm

4.95
6*95

1987=100
2-96

2*96
3-96

2,0
1.4

2.7
20

4-96

2.0

2,6

121.339
121.434

5-96

2.5

3.0

3.3

3.1
3.6

6-96
7-96

2.9
2.7

3.5

3.8

4.1

3.2

3.5

3.7

8-96
9-96
H 4/V(US
iv-wo

2,8

3.6

3,8

2.9

3.3
3.3

3.6

3.8

2.4

2.8

w*U

3-95

4-95

5-95




121.507
B M

122.690
122.821

4.3
1.2

122.587

•

2

122.809

fe liii

-0.4

-2.8

122.515

2

6.8
2.5

124,157
-5.5

4.8

53
6.7
7.2
7.7
6.3
6.1
57

4.2
2 J}

5.9

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

4.0

3.6
3.2

3.9
3.4

4.0

3.4

3.6

4.0
na

3.4

3.5

nn
6-95

7-95

8-95

28

2.4
4.6

5.1

ill 4
4.6
4.6

5.9
5.0

6-- 5 0
4.5

4.5

11

123.576
124.519

4.0
4.2

91

86

BA

9.3

68

59

- .

125.380
128.377

10.0
4.6

126.320

A7

-0.5
99

SO

5.2

4.3

2.5

4.1

3.1

4-96

5-96

6-96

7-96

8-96

12®.835
127.162
9-96

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
December 2,1996

Civilian Employment and Unemployment Rate
Seasonally Adjusted
Millions of Persons

Percent

* Break in series. January 1994 figures reflect revised data collection procedures and are not directly
comparable with previous data.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared

by

Federal Reserve Bank of

St.

5-96 6-96 7-96 8-96
V • - WA , <.• Á

9-96

Louis

Civilian Employment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
3-95

4-95

4-95

*1.3

5-95

-2.4

-3 5

6-95

*1.7

-1.9

5-95

6-95

7-95 8-95
w' I
;

*0.3

Thousands
Initial Month
9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95 1-96 2-96

. :❖.**s>vv>.

-0.7

-0.5

1.1

2.6

-0.5

0.8

1.4

9-95

-0.1

*0.3
0.1

1.1

1.5

1.0

1.7

10-95

0.2

_0A_

1.2

1.6

1.3

1.9

2.0

0.7

0.7

0.1

-0.1

01

1.0

0.6

-0.1

0.7

0.3

1-96

0.1

0.0 " 0 5 ”
0.3
0.8

0.9

06

07

2-96

0.5

07

1.1

1.3

1.1

1.3

3-96

0.8

1.0

1.5

17

1.6

18 ’

4-96

0.7

1.3

1.5

1.4

1.5

5 96

0.9

0.9
1.1

15

1.7

16

1.7

6*96

1.0

1.5

1.1

1.6

1-6
1.7

1.6

7-96

1.1
1.2

8-96

1.1
1.2
1.3

1.2
1.3

1.6
1.7

1*
4-95

1-7
5-95




Mg '
■

.

............................. r.......-.........................

....

11-95

.

!%
■>;

124,566

124,832

;f illip !

M-

12*95

3-95

124,973

:

124,598

>v

8-95

10*96

4-96

........................

7-95

9-96

of Persons
3-96

......

' i

124,859
125,036

-O'2
0.5

'

'

125,244

-1.7
.1*®
-0.1

125,062
.

*0.8............................................................
0.8
2.4

:

¡

;

:

1.0

1.9

3.3

4.3

1.7

2.6

3.8

4.5

4.8

1.4

2.0

2.7

2.8

2.1

-0.5

1.7

1.7

2.3

2.9

3.0

2.6

1.5

3.5

1.7
1.8

1.6

2.1

2,6

2.7

2.3

1.5

2.5

n .

1.6

1.7
1.8

1.7

2.2

2.6

2.7

2.3

1.8

2.5

2.6

1.7

1.6

1.8

1.Ô

1*7

2¿1

2.0
-

1.8

1.7

1.9

1.9

1.9

2.2

2.3

1.9

2.4

2.2

2.4

2.3

I
3.0

1-3
6-95

1-8
7-95

1-9
8-95

1-9

6-96

7-96

8-96

1.8

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

2.6

■?

...................

V ** * M '

&&&£ :

12

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

1

126,0951
126,462
126,610
126,884
127,055
127,368

lifi
1-96

125,663
126,151

I '2*5 I / -2J5Í, *
2.6

124,981
125,226

SH I
9-96

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
December 2, 1996

Payroll Employment
Seasonally Adjusted
Millions

Millions

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Payroll Employment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

Initial Month
9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95 1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

6-96

7-96

8-96

9-96

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

6-96

7-96

8-96

9-96




1-96

Thousands

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
December 2,1996

Real Personal Income
Seasonally Adjusted
Trillions of Dollars

Trillions of Dollars

1994

1990
1991
1992
1993
Real incomes are expressed in chained 1992 dollars.

1995

1996

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Disposable Personal Income
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
3-95

4-95

4-95

-7.0

5-95

05

8.7

6-95

2.1

7.1

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

Initial Month
9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95 1-96
::':Y•

•s'

2-96

3-96

4-96

v

• i:

Ì ' <r

5-96
sv

6-96

7-96

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
9-96

8-96

4,877.1

s

4,911.3

88¡ifl¡

5.4

7-95

2.8

6.3

5.1

4.8

8-95

2.1

4.6

3.2

2.1

'

'

'

4,933.0
4,952.4

1 WÈÈÊ

Jpjll

-0.5

9-95

2.8

4.9

4.0

3.5

2.9

6.4

10-95

3.0

4.8

4.0

3.7

3.3

5.2

4.1

-£

-;v

11-95

3.2

4.7

4.1

3.8

3.6

5.0

4.3

4.5

12-95

3.5

4.9

4.4

4.2

4.1

$.3

4.9

6.1

1-96

2.8

4.0

3.4

3.2

29

36

2.9

5.5
2.5

1.5

-2.9

2-96

3.1

4.2

3.7

3.4

3.2

3.9

3,4

3.Î

2.8

1.1

5.4

2.0

0.7

2.6

-0.1

-2.1... -1.8
2.4
1.3

1.4

3.8

3.3

3.0

2.8

3.3

2.8

2.5

1.8
2.7

2.5
3.5

2.0
3.1

1.6
2.9

1.3
2.7

1.5
3.0

0.8
2.6

0.5 ....-0*5
2.4
2.1

3.1

3.9

3.6

3.4

3.3

3.7

3.4

3.3

3.1

2.6

7-96

2.8

3.5

3.1

2.9

2.8

3.1

2.8

2.6

2.4

1.9

8-96

3.0

3.7

3.3

32

3.1

3.4

3.1
3.2

3.1

3.7

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.5

2.8

3.3

30

29

28

30

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

4,992.4
5,010.8

2.8

9-96

11
llllllli

3-96

10-96

4,975.8

|| |

--

4-96
5-96
ß Aß




"'s

■

5,023.1
s'

*1° 1
2.2

I i

*

S JM S *
5,044.7
5,000.0
5,063.1

16.2

A tt

9.2

5,100.5

2.4

2.7
2.2
a a -i 2 o

3.0

2.7

3.4

3.1

3.7

6.7

4.5

2.9

5.7

5.0

2.5

2.1

27

2.4

2.7

5.0

2.9

1.4

2,7

0.9

-3.0

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

6-96

7-96

8-96

9-96

3.2
;

5,035.6

14

2.7

7.4

33
,A

-2.4

*' A

5,090.3

CO
b'5

5,116.3
5,137.2
5,124.2

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
December 2, 1996

Retail Sales
Seasonally Adjusted
Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

The CPI is used to deflate retail sales data (1982-84=100).
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Retail Sales
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

Billions of
Initial Month
9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95 1-96 2-96

-5.1

5-95

2.4

105

6-95

8.7

7.0

7-95

3,9
2.0

4.4

1.5

8*95

2.9

5.0

32

14

68

9-95

1.7

3 1

1.3

-0.6

1.0

-4.4

10-95

06

1.6

-0.1

-1.9

-1.2

-5.0

11-95

1.7

2.7

1.4

0.3

1.4

-0.4

1.7

9.5

12-95
1-96

2.0

1.9

1.1

2.1

0.9

2.8

7.2

5.0

1.4

2.9
2 1

1.1

0.3

1.0

-0.2

0.9

3.2

0.2

-4.4

2-96

3.4

4.3

3.6

32

4.2

3.8

5.5

8.5

8.1

97

26.0

39

3.3

2.9

3.7

3.3

4.6

6.8

6.1

6.5

12.4

0.3

3.1
3.3

2.4

2.0

2.6

2.1

3,1

4.6

3.7

3.3

6.0

*2.7

2.7

2.3

3.0

2.5

3.4

4.8

4.0

3.8

6.0

0.1

3.1

4-96

2,4

5-96
O QC

2.7
1(.3
9

4-96

5-96

6-96

7-96

8-96

9-96

1982-84
Dollars
126.727

4*95

3-96

3-96

127.788
,

......... ........... .

...............

......

-3.7

1 .510
128.104
128 ■STL
128.327

-5.6
128.683

Hi

129
128.719

131 .221
131.252

S
-0.0

5.9

O A

7-96

17

22

1.6

1.2

1.7

1.2

1.8

2.6

1.8

1.4

2.4

-1.8

8-96
9-96

1. 5
1.8

1.9
2.2

1.4

1.0

1.4

0.9

t.4

2.1

1.4

0.9

1.7

-1.9

1.7

1.3

1.7

1.3

1.8

2.5

1.9

1.5

2.3

-0.7

-0.9

1 10-96

16

2.0

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

130

.

131.250

-

130.228

-4.6
-2.3 -1.2
- :v;:'-' : : ' ’

-1.0

0.1

-1.3

1.0

2.0

6.5

4-96

5-96

6-96

7-96

8-96

..... ■■
130.669

M?

Retail Sales are deflated using the CPI (1982-84=100).




15

9-96

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
December 2,1996

Total Business Inventory/Sales Ratio
Seasonally Adjusted
Ratio

Ratio

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of

St.

Louis

Inventories and Sales
(Billions of Dollars)

1993
1994
1995
1995
September
October
November
December
1996
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September

Manufacturing
Shipments (1) Inventories (2)
3126.01
390.72
3343.38
406.21
432.34
3565.75

Retail Trade
Sales (1) Inventories (2)
267.92
2072.55
2227.76
290.60
302.88
2342.28

Total Business (3)
Sales (1) Inventories (2)
874.52
7139.15
7648.54
931.70
989.84
8162.25

300.75
299.82
300.76
301.28

429.96
431.30
431.65
432.34

196.60
196.29
197.91
199.10

302.78
306.22
307.27
302.88

686.52
685.76
690.24
695.29

985.99
992.27
993.64
989.84

298.69
301.76
300.65
308.00
311.20
308.85
312.40
312.85
315.28

434.72
435.62
435.41
435.44
434.22
433.87
434.45
435.69
437.13

199.13
203.39
204.23
204.03
205.67
204.37
204.72
204.60
206.20

304.37
304.82
302.15
303.40
303.93
304.19
308.86
310.93
313.55

690.69
699.21
700.25
709.54
715.13
711.76
719.18
717.53
723.45

995.35
996.01
994.01
998.43
996.98
997.32
1002.40
1005.44
1006.21

1. Annual data are sums of monthly shipments/sales.
2. Annual data are end-of-year stocks.
3. Total business is the sum of manufacturing, retail trade and merchant wholesalers.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

16

Real Final Sales and Real GDP
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Real final sales and real GDP are chain-weight quantity indexes scaled to 1992 dollars.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Final Sales of Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-91

1-92

2-92

4-92

3-92

1-92

6.2

2-92

4.0

18

3-92

36

2.4

3,0

4-92

3.9

3.1

38

4.6

1-93

2-93

3-93

Initial Quarter
4-93 1-94 2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

!lifllill!

1-93

2.9

2.1

2.2

1.9

-0.9

2.7

21

21

1.8

0.4

1.7

3-93

2.7

2.1

2.2

1.9

1.1

2.0

4-93

3.0

2.5

2.6

2.5

20

3.0

3.7

50

1-94

2.8

2.3

2.4

2.3

19

28
2.8

3.0

6175.815
6203.759

30

20

30

3.3
33

2.8

3.6

6334.496
6371.296
6449.202

.

1.2

2.8

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.0

3*94

2,9
2.9

2.6
27

2.7

2.3

2.9

3.1

27

2.6
27

25

30

32

2.9

3.5

3.8

3.5

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.3

2.7

2.5

25

2.3

26

28

24

2.7
2.6

0.6

2.5

2.8
2.6

2.0

25

2.8
27

2.9

2-95

2*8
27

20

1.3

2.1

3-95

2.8

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.4

2,7

2.8

2.9

2.6

2.6

2,8

2.8

2.6

2.4 I Ä I
2.2
1.9

4 95

2.7

2.5

25

2.5

23

2.6

2.7

2.7

2.4

1-96

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.3

2.6

2.7

2.7

2.5

2.7

28

2-96

2.8

2.6

2.6

2.6

l i l l !

2.7

2.5

2,5

— §■

4-91

1-92

2-92

H
4-92

I ¡ 1 1 Ü im s
1-93

2-93

4.2

2.5

2.9

24 IM lil
2.6
2.8

2.7

2.4

3-93

4-93

1-94

2.3
2.8
2.6
fP fff■ P i i
2-94

17

6467.727

3-94

6514.945

-i

**'

lllllifi

2.6

Third quarter data are preliminary estimates.




1-96

2.3

2-94

3-92

4-95

6307.113

2,5 ]
2.6

1-95

3-95

6240,542
6320.711

2-93

4-94

2-95

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
2-96

6582,060
6638.134

3.6

2.4

2.5

T.4

2.1 m m
2.5
2.8

2.7

2.2

3.0

2.8

*

6647.366

illlili

6741.364

6682.420
6764.193

3.0
36

:

6815.153

4 1

6884.700

M4
4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

a8$&?23

2-96

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
December 2,1996

Components of Real GDP Growth Rate (1)

Real GDP

3rd
1.97

1996
2nd
4.67

1st
2.00

4th
0.25

1995
3rd
3.80

2nd
0.75

1st
0.43

Final Sales

0.43

4.15

3.04

1.35

3.56

2.11

0.55

Change in Business
Inventories

1.50

0.59

-1.03

-1.08

0.15

-1.43

-0.09

Personal Consumption
Expenditures

0.39

2.28

2.36

0.71

1.65

2.11

0.65

Fixed Investment
Nonresidential
Residential

1.45
1.74
-0.25

1.05
0.41
0.61

1.47
1.19
0.28

0.51
0.26
0.24

0.85
0.51
0.34

-0.23
0.36
-0.56

1.19
1.49
-0.26

Government Expenditures
Federal
State and Local

-0.04
-0.24
0.20

1.39
0.62
0.76

0.30
0.40
-0.11

-0.81
-0.96
0.17

-0.11
-0.41
0.31

0.15
-0.10
0.25

-0.23
-0.49
0.26

Net Exports
Exports
Imports

-1.39
-0.10
-1.29

-0.63
0.66
-1.28

-1.12
0.21
-1.33

0.99
1.19
-0.21

1.19
1.18
0.00

0.07
0.65
-0.58

-1.08
0.28
-1.36

Residual (2)

0.02

-0.03

0.04

-0.06

0.03

0.07

-0.03

(1) Contribution of each component to the compound annual rate of real GDP growth in each quarter indicated.
Elements may not sum to the total due to rounding.
(2) Residual line is calculated using the finest level of detail shown in the table.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

3*92
4-92

Ü Ü
4.2

2.6

1-93

I

2-8
2.8

3.0
2.9

29

1.7

2.7

3.1

2.4
2.5

3.3
3.1

3.8

3.1

3.1
3.1

3.3

2.8

3.0

3.0

2.6

3.1

3.2

2.8

3.4

3-93

3.4

3.5

3.4

1^94

3.3

z*

i l l
4 1

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

4226.074
5.4

1

4282.333
4233,676

—

4318.835
lililí!

% t

33

3.0

3.1

3.1

2.7

3.1

32

3.0

3.2

3.5

3.0
30

$0
3.1

3,1
3.1

2,7

3.1

■a t

2.8

3.1

3.1

3.0
30

3.0
31

3,1
31

2.8
2.9

1-95
2-95

Ü Ü
31

2.8
2.8

z$

2.6

2.3
29

2.7

2.6 1 1 1
27
2.7

2.3

' 29

E f tj
2.9

3-95

1111
2.9

2.8
2.7

2.8
2.7

2.7 I S S I
2.4
2.5

2£

4-95

2.7

2M I H M ¡ l i l f i

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.5

25

2.6

HP3
2.8

2.8

2.8

2.6

2.8

I1P|F101P W m m ËEà IMPIPI l l f ^ l
4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.6

»

3-93

4-93

1-94

3.1

19

2.8
2.2

—
2.1

2.4

2-4 I l i
2.5
2.4

2-94

18

4569.870

2.4
1.7

1.1
3.5

2.6

®§
2.6

2.1

_2S

a * ,j

2.7

fjH

3-94

4489.357
4534.762

1,0
20

2.2
2.5

1

4523.959

2.0
2.5" " 2 4

Third quarter data are preliminary estimates.




m
3.1

• § ¡| l l l ü
2-93

4359.471
4390.023

3.3
33

2.9

:

4420.532
4458.721

2-94

26

llillllllii

2.8

3*$4
4-94

3*06;

1-95

2.2

4-93

3.0

4-94

:

2.9
29

2-96

3-94

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
2-96
4173.758
4196.418

2-92

■ H i
43

2-93

Initial Quarter
4-93 1-94 2-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

4597.341

_ J

3-95

4609.410
3.4
4-95

.

4649.078

y

3.4

4687.603
0.6

1-96

4694570

2-96

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
December 2,1996

Real Residential Fixed Investment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

Initial Quarter
4-93 1-94 2-94

3-93
¡¡*1 *

1-92
2-92

24,7
23 4

22 2

3-92
4-92

16.3

12.4

33

16.9

144

10.7

18.7

1-93

13.8

11.2

7.8

10.1

2.1

2-93

104

7.7

4.4

48

-1.6

3-93

10.8

8.6

4-93

12.4

10.7

$.1
8.9

6.8
10.1

1-94

12.5

11.0

9.5

10.6

\

3-94

4-94

•N,

V.......

1-95

i

'

-

237.930

3.6

3.1
8.1

10.1

9.0
9.6

10.8
11.2

16,7

8.9
7.6

11.0
7.4
4.5

99

10.9

9.8

8.5

7.9

4-94

10 1

8.9

7.6

$2
81

1-95

8.8

7.5

6.3

6.6

-•5,3

2-95

70

5.7

4.5

4.6

3.3

5.7
3.4

3-95

7.1

6.0

4.8

5.0

3.8

4Ä"

6.9

,

234.808

11 2

m
18.6
15.7

255.762

24.3

263.59$

12.0

184
16.5

271.574

12.7

12.7

11.6
9.2

7.7

&2
3.4

6A
3.3

3.2
0.2

-2.2

-5.5

-6.8

-9.9 -13.4

5.0 B 8 1 I1 I » 1 1 1

-0,3

-2.8

-3.0

>3.9 ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ I

9.2

0.2

7.8

9.8

57

m um

*1,8
-1.0

-0.1

ÙM -2.8

-3,2

270.261
265.895

-6 3

4-95

71

60

4.9

5.1

4.0

4.2

5.2

4.3

2.0

(O
o

CO

-1 2

-1 5

1-96

7.1

6.1

5.1

5.2

4.4

5.4

4.6

2.6

1.4

-0.1

02

ÔJ2 ¡¡IF*?/

2-96

76

67

5.8

5.9

4.3
5.1

5.3

6.2

5.6

3.9

3.0

1.8

2.3

2.8

1-92

2-92

213.917
224.906

''ski»!

242J22

11.1

~ S .9 ~ g i i i i

1-96

-5.1

12.5

m

4-95

236.669
I M llI llIllM lI li

2-94

4-91

3-95

^ V^ - -

■*

3-94

3-96

2-95

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
2-96

B 2 ....4.3"
3-92

4-92

4.$

5.2

1-93

2-93

4.7

256.520
282JS45

9.7

266.337

6.4
111
9.9

7A
11.7

281.519

16.3

K y i 111^^Jll WÊ''W&
3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

Third quarter data are preliminary estimates.

3-95

271.106

'
5

4-95

1-96

* -1,

2-96

Prepared by Federal Resen/e Bank of St. Louis
December 2,1996

Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-91

1-92

1-92

3.6

2-92

6.8

10.0

3-92

5,2

6.0

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

Billions of Chained
Initial Quarter
4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95

3-93

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

1992 Dollars
Annual Rates

2-96

544J 5 7
557.484

4 92

5.5

6.1

2.2
42

1-93

5.6

6.1

4.8

6.1

6.0

2 93
O.QO
0
30

5.7

61

5.2

62

6.2

63

5.6

5.9

5.1

5J

5.7

5,5

6.2

86ÖJS8
569.082
577.495
586.371
4.7 j * £

I

.....................

N!

4-93

70

7.5

71

8.1

8.5

9.4

10.9

17.5

1-94

7.0

7.5

7.1

7.9

8.3

8.8

9.7

12L3

2-94

70

7.4

71

7.8

8.1

8.5

91

10.6

72

71

3-94

7.6

8.0

7.8

8.5

8.9

9.4

10.0

m

9.4

10.4

13.8

10.1

11.0

13.0

12.2

111
9.8

12.1

13.8

13,8

10.3

11.1

10.2

9.8

8.9

7J- ' 4,2

8.6

7.5

64

36

3.7

25

593.137
617.578

7.3

m m jm
639.480

4 94

8.0

8.4

8.3

8.9

93

9.8

10.3

11.5

1-95
2 95

8.6
8.2

9.0

8.9

9.6

10.4

8.5

84

9.0

9.9
9.3

9.6

11,1
10.1

12.1
10.9

3-95
4 95

8,0

8.3

8.1

8,6

8.9

9.2

9.5

2

660.472

9.1

76

7.9

77

82

8.3

8.8

9.2

8.2

9.4
8.4

1-96

7.8

8.1

8.0

8.4

8.6

8.5
AA
8,8

9.0

9.5

8.2

7.6

7.8

7.7

8.1

8.4

8.6

8.9

8.6
8.1

9.0

2-96

8.2

8.3

7.6

68

52

5.6

5.9

7.7

É lliililÊ
3.8

9.0
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

... I
35

- 679.713
704/449
710.480

i

15.4
93

3-96

8.1

8.3

8.2

8.6

8.2
fl Ö

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

Third quarter data are preliminary estimates.



718.954
723.339
743.478
750.512
780.381

19

2-96

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
December 2,1996

Real Government Consumption Expenditures & Gross Investment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-91
1-92
2-92

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

.. 2LS

Initial Quarter
4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94
. ':
■ m

4-94

2-95

1-95

3-95

4-95

::

:

1-96

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
2-96

:

1258.542

1.1

-0.3

4-92

1.7

1
1.5

2.4

1.9

1-93

0.4

-0.1

0.0

-1 4

-4.6

2-93

0.4

-0 0

0.1

-0.8

-2.2

0.2

3-93

Ö-S

0.2

-1.1

0.6

0.6

0.3

0.3
0.5

-0.4

4-93

-0.0

-0 5

09

1-94

0.1
-0.0

•0.2
-0.3

SÜÜ

-1.3
-1.2

*0.4

0.6

0.4

0.4

0.2

0,2
0.0

*0.1
-0.2

0.7
0.4

M M
0.4

0.3

M.

3.0

4-94

0.5
0.3

0.0

1.5

1-95
2-95

0.3
0.3

0.1

0.1

*0.1

-0.3

0,2

0,2

0.1

-0.2

m

0.2

0.2

-0.0

-0.2

0.3

03

0.2

-0.1

0.8

1.2

-0.6

-0.2

0.8

3-95

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.1

-0,1

0.6

0.9

-0.6

-0.3

0.1

-0.6

-0 2

-0.2

-0.1
-0.4

-0.3

4-95

0*3
-0.0

-0.6

-0.2

-0.3

-0.4

-0.7

-0 1

-0.0

-1.4

-1.3

-1.4

-2.4

-4.3

1-96

0.1

-0.1

*0.3

“0.4

■M

-0.1

-0.2

-0.4

0.1

02

-0.9

-0.8

-0.6

-1.1

-1.4

1.6

2-96

0.5

0.4

-0.1
0.4

0.2

0.1

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.9

11

0.3

0.6

1.0

1.0

1.6

4.6

7.7

3-96

0.4

0.3

0.4

0.2

0.1

0.4

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.8

10

0.2

0.5

0,8

0.8

1,1

3.0

3.7

-0.2

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

2-96

2-94

1257.505
-,

*0.2
~ ..
-0.8
-0.3

1266.491
1272.506

-0.5

1257.695
1258.415
1.0
1.2

1.5

*0.6
-0.7

“1.5
-1.2

I I WÊÊÊÊÊÈ1

¡ lllllii :

1261.562
1266.200

“4.3
-2.6

iMIM

/✓V....................

1252.362

-0.8

1249.796
7.0
2.7

:

1271.154

-1.4

1266.579
1262.687
1265.126

Third quarter data are preliminary estimates.

1263.357
1249.607
1254.675
1278.155
1277.448

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
December 2,1996

Real Federal Consumption Expenditures & Gross Investment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-92

4-91
.|4

1-92 2-92 3-92
" ................ M'

2-92

-1.4

-1.4

3*92

0.7

1.7

4-92
' "

1-93
'* •

2-93 3-93
............

Billions of Chained
Initial Quarter
4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

1992 Dollars
Annual Rates

2-96

525.078
523.267

4.9

529,603

•

4-92

1.3

2.3

4.1

1-93

-1.6

-1.7

*1.8

-5.0 -12.7

3.4

2-93

-2.2

-2.4

-2.6

-5.0

-8.9

-4.9

4-93

-2.1

-2.2

-2.3

-3.7

-5.4

-2.9

-1.8

-0.7

1-94

-3.2

-3,4

-3,7

-5.1

-6.7

-5.1

-5.1

-6.2 -11,4

534.001
Illisibilité

516,134
509.666
505.912
505.025
489.914

2-94

-3.4

-3.6

-3.9

-5.1

-6.4

-5.1

-5.2

-5.9

-8.4

-5.3

3 *4

-2.1

-2.2

-2.3

-3.2

-1.1

-2.6

-2.0

-1.8

-2.2

2.8

4-94

-2.4

-2.5

-2.7

-3.5

-4.3

-3.0

-2.7

-2.7

-3.1

-0.2

1-95
2-95

*2,8
-2.7

*2.9
-2.8

*3.0
-2.9

*3,8
-3.6

*4.5
-4.2

*3 5
-3.2

*3.3
-3.0

-3.3
-3.0

*3.8
-3.4

3-95
4-95

-2,9
-3.5

-3.0
-3.7

-3.1
-3.8

-3.7
-4.5

-4.3
-5.1

-3.5
-4.4

-3.3
-4.3

-3.4
-4.5

483.335
496.688

11.5
2.4

-5.9

-1,8
-1.7

-0.6

-6.2

-6.5

-0.8

-4.6

-4.0

-1.4

-3.7
-5.0

-2.4
-4.0

-1.8
-3.8

-4.9
-6.6

-4-5
-6.7

-3.5
-6.8

-5.6
-9.4 -13.2

-----

: ...

489.164

........
«¡¡I ¡¡IB I!

479.359
472.543
456.154

1-96

-3.0

-3.1

-3.2

«3.8

-4.3

-3.6

-3.4

-3.5

-3.8

-2.8

-2.4

-4.6

-4.3

-3.8

-4.6

-4.0

6.0

2-96

-2.4

-2.4

-2.5

-2.9

-3.4

-2.6

-2.4

-2.4

-2.5

-1.5

-1.0

-2.7

-2.2

-1.3

-1.2

0.3

7.7

9.4

3-96

-2.4

-2.5

-2.5

-3.0

-3.4

-2.7

-2.5

-2.5

-2.6

-1.7

»»y

-2.8

-2.3

-1.6

-1.7

-0.7

3.9

2.8

-3.4

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

2-96

462.902
473.446
469.343

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
December 2,1996

Third quarter data are preliminary estimates.




480.991

20

Real Exports
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-91

1-92

2-92

H I
40

10

4-92

3.5
4.1

2.1
3.4

m 3
3.9

b l .........

1*92

1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94

•: v-::

4.5

2-92

3-92

lÜ il '
4.2

3.4

3.8

5.0

¡P S

3*04
4-94

6.2

5.3
6.2

1-95

6.0

5.0

6.3

6*7

5.9

6.3

6.6

2-95

5.9

*SEI

4-95

6.5

1-06
2-96

5.2

.. • :■
6.2

6.5
2-92

4-95

1-96

633.009
635.816
639.710

...

-0.5

-8.5

4.8

6.9

6.2

un i
7.3

If

7.2
6.8

8.6

'■■■'

6.7

7.6

7.4

S flf
8.2

6.8

3-92

647.083
660.044

H
6.5

7.5

¡1

680.255

M M M a ¡¡¡i§|§
12.1

6.8

4-92

1-93

677.647

15.9

B ill
S Ü 1
8.7 12.5
9.9 14.0 13.0 16.5
E îff
lw l
l i E i I Ki H
v' i
8.2
8.0 10.0
8.6
7.5 10.0
IM I

7.4
2-93

W.

5.9
¡ff

7.4

9.1

4.2

il

8.7

WM

BB|pu| H Ä » W tM WÊWÈ S ö l l
8.7
7.6
6.2
6.9
7.6
7.9

9.0
3-93

4-93

1-94

H

2-94

9.2

3-94

719.560
747.573

10.2

9.3

»SS&&K

.

8
10.2

703.108

- .>-Ï-.-. s

9.7

8.2

.L\...... .

23.4

m
1-92

3-95

645.484

¡£<•1^*1
4-91

2-95

1-95

-0.7

M
6.2

4-94

lilillf

HESSIN
5.5

5.5

I H » ' 6.1
6.7
7.2

6.9

3-94

8.3

W Ë WÈÌMM
6.6

3-93
.. ;

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
2-96

649.129

l Ä s i l *1.3
4.3
3.4

llllly iir
4.2
4.6

2-93

iiM U W H i

4.8

SM»

1-93

6.0

ÜÜ3
4.9

2-94

4-92

Initial Quarter
4-93 1-94 2-94

4-94

10.7

76&âao
763.226

.... .......f.......... 7824352
803.087

10.7

1.8

E

7.2
6.0
g ü lM P ig i

1-95

2-95

3-95

3.7

1 —
817.864

5.6

.
4-95

1-96

-

816.074

2-96

Prepared by Federal Resen/e Bank of St. Louis
December 2,1996

Third quarter data are preliminary estimates.

Real Imports
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-92

6.1

4-92

7.4

7.1 ■ H I
8.6
6.3

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

2-93

8.5

9.4

7.0
8.4

10.9

10.5

12.7

3-93

7.8
9.0

8.5
9.7

7.5

9.1

8.3

8.3

4.1

9.1

10.7

10.5

11.3

10.6

668.344

13.3

1-93

9.8

4-94

647.827

4.1
8.6

2-94

3-94

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
2-96
Annual Rates

;

2-92

4-93

3-93

Initial Quarter
4-93 1-94 2-94

10.5

10.1

670.524
689.141

11.6
9.9 . 8.3

11.4

11.4

703,069

12.0

724.429

11.9

731.707
17.5
14.6

761.777

........
13.2

m i

18.4

810.404
iil’iiiPIWilllgil

99
«if} A

105

2-95

96

10.1

M ill
4 95

8*9

4-94
1-95

8.5
8.7

9.8

11 2

11 2

10.5

10.6

11 6
10.7

11 4
10.5

12.9
11.5

11 8
105

_,__ i—
13.1 105
4ì\ 7
109

0.0
8.8

85

9.0

8.6
8.7

1-06
2 96

102

90

88

9.2

9.0

89
9.1

8.5
88

9.0
9.2

80
8.4

7.9
8.5

—
4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

92

103
4A A i m i
86
78

...._____ _____________

iiKiKlliKSS&lSiZiSSSiSliSSSSi*#i

851.919
874.651
4.5

884.605
684*524

64

6.3
Aft

5.4
iß 3

42

20

0.8

1.6

4.0

6*0

73

68

6.2

4.1
5.2

5.4

7.3

10.3

9.9

#.V>

/ »4»

O.G

6.3

7.0

10.2

0.0

0.0

2-94

3-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

2-96

21

2.2

•0*0

7.3

Third quarter data are preliminary estimates.




______

4-94

888.023
10.6

910.707
932.556

.m u m

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
December 2,1996

Trade and Current Account Balances
Current Prices
Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

The goods and services trade balance and the current account are for the current plus 3 previous quarters
until 1993. Since 1993, the goods and services trade balance uses the current plus previous 11 months.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

U.S. International Transactions
(Millions of Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted)
2-96

1-96

4-95

3-95

2-95

1-95

4-94

209,321
48,195

205,150
47,497

203,615
46,513

199,210
45,269

194,718
46,779

188,986
44,100

184,126
39,368

Imports
Goods and Services
-237,196
Income Payments on Foreign Assets in the U.S. -49,799

-229,377
-47,235

-223,006
-48,403

-223,545
-49,630

-226,542
-47,641

-218,501
-45,000

-211,472
-42,462

Balance on Current Account

-38,779

-34,869

-30,435

-37,688

-40,976

-39,054

-42,655

Change in U.S. Assets Abroad
U.S. Official Reserve Assets
U.S. Private Assets

-49,165
-523
-48,213

-68,750
17
-68,615

-98,214
191
-98,206

-39,595
-1,893
-37,954

-108,299
-2,722
-105,398

-61,747
-5,318
-56,275

-59,603
2,033
-60,693

Change in Foreign Assets in the U.S.
Foreign Official Assets
Other Foreign Assets

80,315
13,197
67,118

99,471
52,021
47,450

99,229
11,369
87,860

118,816
39,186
79,630

115,421
37,380
78,041

90,995
21,822
69,173

72,632
266
72,366

Exports
Goods and Services
Income Receipts on U.S. Assets Abroad

Note: Negative values indicate dollar outflows from the United States.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

22

Gross Saving as a Percent of GDP
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent

Percent

Total saving equals private saving plus government surplus and consumption of fixed capital.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Saving and Investment
(Billions of Dollars and Percent of GDP)
Gross
Private Saving

Gross
Government
Saving

Gross
Private Domestic
Investment

Gross
Gov't Domestic
Investment

1993: 1
2
3
4

Billion
981.0
951.8
962.4
954.6

Billion
-72.3
-28.0
-24.9
17.5

Percent
-1.1
-0.4
-0.4
0.3

Billion
843.6
855.9
873.8
911.2

Billion
207.1
210.6
209.8
214.7

Percent
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2

Billion
-62.6
-83.0
-96.2
-111.0

1994: 1
2
3
4

1013.5
991.3
1003.8
1018.3

15.0
14.4
14.4
14.4

20.8
74.1
51.1
52.4

0.3
1.1
0.7
0.7

957.6
1016.5
1033.6
1050.1

14.1
14.8
14.8
14.8

207.3
208.5
217.2
216.3

3.1
3.0
3.1
3.1

-106.5
-129.7
-150.6
-158.9

-1.6
-1.9
-2.2
-2.2

1995: 1
2
3
4

1043.8
1018.5
1085.9
1138.9

14.6
14.1
14.9
15.5

71.2
84.4
82.7
81.7

1.0
1.2
1.1
1.1

1072.0
1050.3
1074.8
1064.0

15.0
14.6
14.7
14.5

219.1
223.7
224.7
220.1

3.1
3.1
3.1
3.0

-146.2
-150.8
-138.1
-110.2

-2.0
-2.1
-1.9
-1.5

1996: 1
2
3

1133.8
1121.6
1190.5

15.3
14.9
15.6

84.1
122.9
118.2

1.1
1.6
1.6

1068.9
1096.0
1152.4

14.4
14.5
15.1

228.8
235.1
235.0

3.1
3.1
3.1

-129.9
-144.2
-176.8

-1.7
-1.9
-2.3

Percent
15.2
14.6
14.6
14.3

Percent
13.1
13.2
13.3
13.6

Net
Foreign
Investment
Percent
-1.0
-1.3
-1.5
-1.7

Note: Gross private and government saving equals gross private, government, and net foreign investment minus a statistical discrepancy.
Net Foreign Investment is the excess of U.S. investment abroad over foreign investment in the U.S..




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

23

Corporate Profits After Tax
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-91
2-92

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

Initial Quarter
4-93 1-94 2-94

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

2-96
258.3

11.7 -20.3
.. ">-................. >.......<....... I

4-92

13.7

2.2

15.8 138.1

278.0

2-93

10.8

3.4

10.4

38.2

5.2

14.2

4-93

16.4

11.6

18.0

36.8

19.1

27.5

34.8

29.6

2-94

14.3

10.4

15.0

27.3

14.7

18.6

19.7

13.6

6.4

96.9

4-94
â p lp iii

13.5

10.2

13.9

23.1

13.4

15.9

16.2

11.9

7.9

11.0

?B

11.5

11.1
10.5

6.8

2-95

106

7.7

10.5

17.4

10.5

13.3
12.7

on 1

4-95

S 1 IÉ
12.6

9.4
« e

10.9

3-95

18.9

12.2

3.7

1-96

13.1

10.8

19.0 ¡ B i t

2-96

12.8

3-96

12.3
4-91

10.2
10.6

13.2
12.9

182

125

M
3.8

10.2

12.3-' 17.3

11.9

13.0

1-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-92

285.2

6.8

fts lilllll 11.8
13.7 11.1

331.1

33.1

9.5

2.8 ,l8 J f
3.4 16.3

llf i

9.5

10.8

9.0

21.9
19.4

9.0

357.3

* 0 *15.4
-0.6 -5.1

6.5

11.0

11.7

28.3

54,5

9.8

9.8

10.0

201

27.5

1.9

342,7
348.1
383.1
393.1

5.3

14.3

12.0

10.2

1S J

mm

11.5

12.0

20.2

25.1 ’ 12,6

13.7

11.6

9.9

18 1

108

10.9

11 3

17.5

20 5

10.9

138

7.6

10.9

$3

16.6

10.0

10.0

10.2

15,1

16.9

$.0

10.3

5.6

3.7

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

2-96

2-93

411,8
419.4
423.2

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
December 2,1996

Corporate Profits After Tax with Capital Consumption and Inventory Valuation Adjustments.
Third quarter data are preliminary estimates.

Corporate Profits and Net Cash Flow
(Billions of Dollars)
Inventory
Valuation
Adjustment

Capital
Consumption
Adjustment

Corporate
Profits(1)

After-Tax
Profits(1)

Dividends

Capital
Consumption

1993: 1
2
3
4

427.4
447.8
469.6
512.8

275.9
285.2
310.3
331.1

190.2
195.8
200.2
202.9

409.5
414.2
422.7
421.4

-14.6
-15.6
7.9
-4.0

5.0
5.8
3.8
12.3

509.8
519.2
524.9
553.6

1994: 1
2
3
4

459.7
534.3
553.1
570.9

288.3
341.5
349.7
357.3

204.4
208.8
212.5
218.5

455.4
432.2
437.1
439.3

-3.9
-9.8
-16.5
-22.8

-11.8
18.1
18.8
21.3

543.2
574.8
590.9
600.8

1995: 1
2
3
4

560.0
562.3
612.5
611.8

342.7
348.1
388.1
393.1

221.7
224.6
228.5
234.7

444.4
451.3
456.9
463.6

-51.9
-42.3
-9.3
-8.8

17.4
15.0
14.6
16.5

617.3
617.0
625.8
630.8

1996: 1
2
3

645.1
655.8
654.7

411.8
419.4
423.2

239.9
243.1
245.2

465.6
471.0
477.1

-17.4
-11.0
2.1

20.4
22.3
23.7

654.8
658.4
653.0

Net
Cash Flow

(1) Profits data includes the Inventory Valuation Adjustment and Capital Consumption Adjustment.
The latter is the excess of depreciation allowances over Capital Consumption.
Net Cash Flow equals After-Tax Corporate Profits less Dividends, less the Inventory Valuation Adjustment, plus Capital Consumption.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis

24

Government Deficit(-)/Surplus( + )
Seasonally Adjusted
Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

National income accounts basis

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Federal Government Debt
(Billions of Dollars)
Seasonally Adjusted End of Month Totals
Federal Debt
Federal Debt
held by Private held by Foreign
Investors
Investors
2875.4
562.1
2949.9
570.9
2993.0
593.8
3046.5
619.2

1993: March
June
September
December

Gross
Federal
Debt
4234.6
4349.4
4425.7
4519.4

Federal Debt held
by Agencies
and Trusts
1061.4
1088.2
1119.4
1142.8

Net
Federal
Debt
3173.9
3263.1
3307.0
3373.4

1994: March
June
September
December

4582.0
4641.1
4707.2
4784.3

1162.4
1190.2
1215.4
1245.9

3420.0
3452.4
3493.3
3535.0

349.2
352.7
360.4
367.6

3074.0
3099.7
3138.2
3167.1

630.7
637.4
658.1
684.5

1995: March
June
September
December

4871.4
4944.9
4989.4
4972.9

1277.7
1302.5
1322.9
1293.5

3594.4
3643.6
3668.4
3675.9

376.1
382.7
380.1
384.6

3217.7
3256.6
3290.8
3293.8

725.9
790.1
851.1
856.6

1996: March
June

5125.8
5153.5

1378.7
1407.1

3748.1
3747.0

387.9
384.3

3360.4
3359.0

925.9
966.3

Federal Debt
held by Federal
Reserve Banks
311.4
324.6
330.1
337.5

Columns may not add because each component is seasonally adjusted separately. Gross federal debt equals debt held by agencies and trusts plus
net federal debt.
Net federal debt equals debt held by Federal Reserve banks plus debt held by private investors (which includes debt held by foreign investors).
Sources: Orginal data may be found in the TREASURY BULLETIN; seasonally adjusted series prepared by this Bank.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

25

Government Budgets
(Billions of Dollars; National Income Account Basis)
Federal, State and Local

Federal

Expenditures
2024.0
2051.9
2075.7
2109.1

Surplus/
Deficit(-)
-182.6
-193.0
-215.5
-187.3

Grants-in-Aid (1)
165.4
173.0
174.2
176.3

1992:1
2
3
4

Receipts
1183.4
1193.1
1187.0
1230.5

E xpenditures
1450.7
1472.8
1484.5
1509.5

Surplus/
Deficit(-)
-267.4
-279.6
-297.5
-279.0

1993:1
2
3
4

1225.2
1271.3
1280.3
1324.4

1509.7
1521.5
1534.7
1557.7

-284.5
-250.2
-254.4
-233.3

1916.8
1977.4
1995.0
2057.1

2120.9
2138.5
2154.5
2175.4

-204.0
-161.0
-159.5
-118.3

177.3
181.5
187.2
197.0

1994:1
2
3
4

1321.9
1382.8
1387.1
1416.3

1534.6
1552.5
1575.7
1606.4

-212.7
-169.6
-188.5
-190.1

2053.3
2129.1
2143.3
2184.4

2171.2
2193.5
2232.2
2275.2

-117.9
-64.4
-88.9
-90.7

192.2
197.5
196.9
196.9

1995:1
2
3
4

1449.3
1483.2
1486.6
1494.7

1621.9
1644.3
1645.0
1649.3

-172.6
-161.1
-158.5
-154.5

2224.4
2266.7
2284.2
2298.6

2298.0
2328.7
2348.8
2365.0

-73.7
-62.1
-64.6
-66.4

205.8
211.3
203.8
203.3

1996:1
2
3

1523.1
1575.6
1582.3

1678.3
1702.3
1702.6

-155.2
-126.7
-120.3

2338.5
2402.0
2415.5

2402.7
2427.6
2446.7

-64.3
-25.7
-31.2

207.6
219.3
214.5

Receipts
1841.4
1858.9
1860.1
1921.8

(1) Federal Grants-in-Aid to state and local government are part of federal expenditures and state and local receipts, but are netted out in computing total
government measures.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Federal Budgets
Fiscal Years
(Billions of Dollars; Unified Budget Basis)

Calendar Years
(Billions of Dollars; National Income Account Basis)

Receipts
1129.8

Expenditures
1284.5

S urplus/
Deficit(-)
-154.7

1990

Receipts
1031.3

Outlays
1252.5

Surplus/
Deficit(-)
-221.2

1991

1054.3

1323.6

-269.4

1149.0

1345.0

-196.0

1992

1090.5

1380.9

-290.4

1198.5

1479.4

-280.9

1993

1153.5

1408.7

-255.1

1275.3

1530.9

-255.6

1994

1257.7

1460.8

-203.1

1377.0

1567.3

-190.2

1995

1351.5

1514.4

-163.8

1478.4

1640.1

-161.7

1996

1452.8

1560.1

-107.3

NA

NA

NA

Note: Fiscal years refer to the budget year which runs October 1 through September 30.
Total budget outlays include federal entities that are off budget.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

26

Federal Government Receipts
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-91

1-92

2-92

5.6

3.3

3-92

3.0

0.6

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

Initial Quarter
4-93 1-94 2-94

6.0

5.3

6.4

15.5

4.4

3.5

3.6

6.5

-1.7

2-93

6.2

5.9

6.6

9.6

6.7

3-93

5.8

5.4

5.8

7.9

5.4

4-93

6.8

6.6

7.2

9.2

7.6

2-95

3-95

............................ ...................................................;............... .............Ï

4-95

1-96

2-96

8.5

14.5

1,324.4

$ j$

,1 ^ 1 .0

77

9.1

8.1

10.2

8.8

10.8

90

19.7

3-94

6,7

6.6

6.9

8.1

7,1

4-94

68

71

8.2

7.3

8,6
8.6

7.5

8.4

6.9

9.6

1-95

6.9
•j

8.8

7.8

8.6

7.5

2-95

7.3

7.2
__
o ./

7.5
_n
/.u

8.4
-p

7.8

8.9

8.0

8.8

7.8

r.o

/.t

4-95
1-9$

6.5

6.4

6.7

7.3

6.7

7.5

6.7

7.1

6.2

2-96

7.0
$ *7

-----7.0

*--7.2

7.8

7.3
'¿'o
9“
4-92

8.0

7.4

78

1-93

2-93

3-93

2-92

3-92

1,280,3

■
10.9

1,230.5
i HISS 2
1,271.3

72

*Ttt

......................................,.......

15.9

7.2

1-92

1-95

1,187,0

2-94

4-91

4-94

1,193.1

1-93

3-96

3-94

lilill

-2.0

4-92

3-95

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates

1,382.8
______............ ___....................... .............. ......................... ....' • ' * ' *
1,416.3

4.9

8.7

9,6

6.5

9.2

9.7

9.6

7.3

9.3

9.7

9.7

7.3

5.3

6.2

5.5

4.2

1.6

2.2

7.2

81

6.7

~7 j6

7\4

6.9

6.2

8.1

11.1

14.5

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

1,449.3
1,483.2
1,494.7
1,575.6
1,582.3
2-96

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
December 2,1996

Third quarter data are preliminary estimates.

Federal Government Current Expenditures
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

2-96

lip ilM liip iip illIp

1-92

15.4

2-92

10.7

3*92
4-92

8.1
7.8

54

5.0

6.9

1*93

62

4.1

3.4

3*4

0.1

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1,450.7

62

1,472.8

WMWÊM

1*484.5
1,509.5

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

Third quarter data are preliminary estimates.




27

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

mm

•. ;V:

■1

III

4.7 ÏÏBÊBÊ i

f||f

4-91

Initial Quarter
4-93 1-94 2-94

1-96

2-96

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
December 2, 1996

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Post Office Box 442
St. Louis, Missouri 63166

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