Full text of National Economic Trends : December 1991

The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.

N a tio n a l E c o n o m ic T r e n d s
December 1991

T h e f is c a l p r o b le m s o f s ta te a n d lo c a l g o v e r n ­
m e n t s a r e b y n o w w e ll- k n o w n , a s e v id e n c e d b y
t h e ir c u ts in

s p e n d in g , e m p lo y e e la y - o f f s a n d

t a x in c r e a s e s d u r in g t h e p a s t y e a r .

State a n d Local G o v e r n m e n t S u r p l u s e s a n d
Deficits a s a P e r c e n t of G N P 1

O n e w a y to

a s s e s s t h e m a g n it u d e o f t h e s e f i s c a l p r o b le m s is
to e x a m in e g o v e r n m e n t d e f ic it s a s a p e r c e n t o f
G N P.
cent

A s th e a c c o m p a n y in g c h a r t s h o w s , r e ­
lo c a l

about

as

and

deep

s ta te
as

g o v e rn m e n t

th o se

d e f ic it s

a re

d u r in g

th e

o c c u r r in g

s lo w d o w n o f 1 9 6 7 a n d t h e r e c e s s io n s o f 1 9 7 0
and 1975.

W h a t is d if f e r e n t a b o u t r e c e n t d e f i ­

c it s , h o w e v e r , is th a t t h e y a r e a c o n t in u a t io n o f
a lo n g e r - t e r m t r e n d , r a t h e r t h a n p r im a r il y a r e ­
c e s s io n a r y

phenom enon

as

in

th e

p a s t.

The

r e c e n t r e c e s s io n , o f c o u r s e , h a s c o n t r ib u t e d to
c u r r e n t d e f ic it s b y s lo w in g th e g r o w t h o f ta x r e ­
c e ip t s , b u t in c r e a s e s in e x p e n d it u r e s h a v e e x ­

-1.0

c e e d e d t h e g r o w t h o f r e c e ip t s s in c e 1 9 8 4 .

-1.5

T h e r e a s o n s f o r t h e s e s p e n d in g in c r e a s e s a r e
m any.

S in c e

th e

m id - 1 9 8 0 s ,

s ta te

and

lo c a l

g o v e r n m e n t s h a v e f e lt s t r o n g p r e s s u r e s :

fro m

t h e p u b lic to im p r o v e t h e q u a lit y o f e d u c a t io n ,

Note: The shaded periods are recessions.
'The numerator excludes social Insurance funds, which consist mainly of the funds for state and local
retirement systems, as well as funds for worker's compensation and disability.

f r o m th e c o u r ts to r e lie v e o v e r c r o w d in g in p r is ­
o n s and fro m

t h e f e d e r a l g o v e r n m e n t t o in c r e a s e s h a r p ly t h e ir e x p e n d it u r e s o n M e d ic a id .

F o r e x a m p le , s in c e th e m id - 1 9 7 0 s ,

s p e n d in g b y s ta te s f r o m t h e ir o w n t a x s o u r c e s f o r p r is o n s a n d M e d ic a id h a s r is e n t w ic e a s fa s t a s p e r s o n a l in c o m e .

M e a n w h ile ,

s t a te a n d lo c a l g o v e r n m e n t s a r e f a c e d w it h m a k in g u p f o r t h e lo s s o f f e d e r a l a id , w h ic h d e c lin e d f r o m 2 3 p e r c e n t o f s ta t e a n d lo c a l
re v e n u e s in

A

1 9 8 0 to 1 6 p e r c e n t in 1 9 9 0 .

w e a k n a t io n a l r e c o v e r y w i l l d o lit t le t o a lle v ia t e th e s e f is c a l p r o b le m s .

P r e s s u r e s to in c r e a s e s ta te a n d lo c a l s p e n d in g s h o w n o

s ig n s o f a b a t in g : b o t h s c h o o l e n r o llm e n t s a n d t h e n u m b e r o f p e o p le e l ig i b l e f o r M e d i c a i d a r e r i s i n g f a s t e r t h a n t h e y d id i n t h e 1 9 8 0 s .
W i t h t o t a l g o v e r n m e n t r e v e n u e a s a p e r c e n t o f G N P r e a c h in g a p o s t - W o r ld - W a r - I I p e a k o f 3 2 . 5 p e r c e n t in 1 9 9 0 , s ta te a n d lo c a l
g o v e r n m e n t s w i l l c o n t in u e to f a c e s o m e d i f f i c u lt c h o ic e s :

v ie w



c u t s p e n d in g , in c r e a s e t a x e s o r b o t h .

—

T H
F E D E R
R E
R A
S E

E
A L
S E R V E
N K o f
L O U S

s e x p r e s s e d d o n o t n e c e s s a r ily r e f le c t o f f ic ia l p o s it io n s o f t h e F e d e r a l R e s e r v e S y s t e m .

C le t u s C . C o u g h lin

C o n s u m e r P r i c e I n d e x - All U r b a n C o n s u m e r s
Percent Chong# From Previous Yeor
Seosonoly Adjusted
Percent

Percent

8

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

Prepored by Federo) Reserve Bonk of S t Louis

C o n s u m e r

P r i c e

I n d e x

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a ) R a te s o f C h a n g e )

Ttraintl

I n i t i a l M on th
3-9#

4 -9#

5-9#

4 -9#

2 .S

5 -9#

2 .4

1 .9

6-9#

4 .1

4 .7

7 .7

7 -9#

4 .3

4 .7

6.2

6-9#

7-9 #

6 -9 #

9-9# l# -9 # 11-9# 1 2-9#

1 -9 1

1 96 2-64 -1 # #
2 -9 1

6 -9 1

9 -9 1

1 3 # .5

5 .1

5 .4

5 .2

5 .2

4 .5

3 .7

2 .9

2 .7

2 .4

# .9

- # .9

4 -9 1

4 .7

4 .9

5 .2

4 .9

4 .9

4 .2

3 .5

2 .9

2 .7

2 .5

1 .5

# .9

1 -9 1

7 -9 1

13#.#

4 .9

12-9#

6 -9 1

4 .7

3 -9 1

l# -9 #
11-9#

5 -9 1

1 2 9 .2

2 -9 1

9-9#

4 -9 1

1 29 .#

6.2 7 . 6 7 . 6 1#.6
6.2 6.6 6.1 6.2 l # . l 9 . 5
6 .3
6 .9
8.# 6.1 9 . 2 6 . 5
6.# 6 . 5 7 . 2 7 . 2 7 . 6 6 . 9
5 .7
6.1 6 . 7 6.6 6 . 9 6.#
5 .7
6.# 6.6 6 . 4 6 . 7 5 . 9
5 .4
5 .7
6.1 5 . 9 6.1 5 . 4

6-9#

3 -9 1

5 .5

1 3 1 .6
1 3 2 .6
1 3 3 .4

7 .5
5 .6

3 .7

4 .9

3 .7

3 .6

5 .1

4 .3

4 .6

5 .5

4 .6

3 .9

3 .9

4 .1

2 .7

1 3 3 .6

1 3 4 .6
1 3 5 .1

2 .9

2.# 1.6
2.1 2.#
2.2 2.1
2 .3
2.2
2.6 2.6

2 .7

2 .4

2 .3

9-9# l# -9 # 11-9# 12-9#

1 -9 1

2 -9 1

5 -9 1

4 .6

4 .6

5 .#

4 .6

4 .6

4 .2

3 .5

3 .#

6 -9 1

4 .5

4 .6

4 .6

4 .6

4 .6

4 .»

3 .4

2 .9

7 -9 1

4 .4

4 .5

4 .7

4 .5

4 .4

3 .9

3 .4

2 .9

2 .9

5 -9 1

4 .3

4 .4

4 .6

4 .3

4 .3

3 .6

3 .3

2 .9

2.6
2.6
2.6

9 -9 1

4 .3

4 .4

4 .6

4 .3

4 .3

3 .9

3 .4

3 .#

3 .#

1#-91

4 .1

4 .2

4 .3

4 .1

4 .1

3 .6

3 .2

2.6 2.6

3-9#

4 -9 #

5-9#

6-9#

7-9#

6-9 #

Th e C P I i s

1 3 4 .2

2 .7
2 .7
2 .7
2 .7

1 35 .#
2 .7
3 .2

1 3 5 .3
1 3 5 .7

3 .6

3 .#

3 .1

2 .7

2 .9

3 .#

2 .7

1 3 6 .0
2 .7

1 3 6 .3

2 .9

2 .9

2 .7

2 .7

2 .7

3 .1

3 .2

3 .1

3 .3

3 .6

4 .5

2 .7

2 .7

2 .7

2 .7

# .9

5 -9 1

6 -9 1

7 -9 1

6 -9 1

9 -9 1

2.6 2.6
3 -9 1

4 -9 1

1 3 6 .6
1 3 7 .1
1 3 7 .2

f o r »11 u rb a n con m — r >.




P re p a re d

F e d e ra l R e a e rv e Sank o f S t . L o u is

R . 1991

C o n s u m e r

P r i c e

I n d e x

-

F o o d

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )
T e r m in a l
M o n th

I n i t i a l M o n th
5 -9 «

4 -9 «

5 -9 «

6 -9 «

7 -9 «

8 -9 «

9 -9 « l« - 9 « 1 1 -9 « 1 2 -9 «

1 -9 1

4 -9 #

-« .9

5 -9 «

-•* 5

«*«

6 -9 #

2 *5

4*2

8*5

7 -9 «

5 *5

5*«

7*5

6 *5

8“9t

5 *5

4*6

6*2

5*1

5*7

9 -9 «

5 *5

4*4

5*6

4 *6

5*7

5*7

l« - 9 «

5*7

4*5

5 *4

4 *6

4*«

4*1

4*6

1 1 -9 «

5*9

4*6

5*4

4 *8

4*4

4 *6

5*«

5 *5

1 2 -9 «

5 *7

4*5

4 *9

4 *5

5 *8

5 *9

5 *9

5*6

1*8

1*91

4*«

4*6

5 *2

4 *7

4*4

4*6

4*8

4*9

4 *5

2*91

5 *4

5 *9

4* 5

5 *8

5 *4

5*5

5 *5

2*9

5 -9 1

5 *4

5* 7

4*1

5*7

5 *5

5*2

5*2

2 *9

2*1 2*2
2*2 2*4

4 -9 1

5 *8

4* 2

4* 6

4 *2

5*9

4*«

4*«

5*9

5 *6

5 -9 1

5 *5

5*9

4 *2

5 *8

5*5

5*5

5*5

5*5

5*«

1 9 8 2 - 8 4 -1 Ot
2 -9 1

5 -9 1

4 -9 1

5 -9 1

6 -9 1

7 -9 1

8 -9 1

9 -9 1
151*2

151*2
152*1
152*8
155*2
155*6
1 5 4 .1
1 5 4 .7
154*9
7 *4

1 5 5 .7

«*«

2 *7

4*1

5*«

5*9

9 *2

5*2

2*2

5*9

4*5

6 -9 1

5*7

4*«

4 *4

4*«

5 *8

5*8

5 *8

5*7

5 *5

7 -9 1

5*«

5*5

5*5

5*1

2*9

2*8

2*7

2*5

2*1 2*2

8 -9 1

2*6 2*8

5*«

2*7

9 -9 1

2*5

2 *7

2 *9

2*S

2*5

1 « -9 1

2*5

2 *5

2*7

2*5

2.«

5 -9 «

4 -9 «

5 -9 «

6 -9 «

7 -9 «

2*4

5*7

5 .«

2*5

8 -9 «

1*5

4*5

1*4

5*1

• *7
«*5

• *9

1 -9 1

2 -9 1

• *6

9 -9 « l« - 9 « 1 1 -9 « 1 2 -9 «

155*7

2*1 2.«
1*2 • *9
1*1 • *9

1*5

2*1
2*1 2*« 1*8 1*4 1*4
1*9
1*8 1*6 1*2 1*2
1*9

1 5 5 .4

-2 * 6

1 5 6 .7
«*«

1 5 6 .7

5*1

6 *5

1 5 7 .4

-« * 5

-•* 4

1 5 6 .6

-6 * 8

1 5 6 .2

-1 * 1

-1 * 5

-5 * 1

-5 * 5

-« * 7

-« * 9

-5 * 2

-1 * 5

• *9

• *6

-•* 7

-« * 9

-2 * 6

-1 * 2

«*«

-« .9

5 -9 1

4 -9 1

5 -9 1

6 -9 1

7 -9 1

8 -9 1

9 -9 1

1 5 6 .5
1 5 6 .2

P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e ta n k o f S t* L o u is
M o ve a b a r 1 4 , 1991

C o n s u m e r

P r i c e

I n d e x

-

E n e r g y

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )
T e r m in a l
M o n th

I n i t i a l M o n th
5 -9 «

4 -9 «

«*«

5 -9 «

-1 * 8

4 -9 «

5 -9 «

6 -9 «

7 -9 «

8 -9 «

9 -9 « l« - 9 « 1 1 -9 « 1 2 -9 «

1 9 8 2 - 8 4 -1 I t
2 -9 1

5 -9 1

4 -9 1

5 -9 1

6 -9 1

7 -9 1

8 -9 1

9 -9 1
9 6 .8

-5 * 7

9 6 .5

6 -9 «

1*2

1*9

7 *7

7 -9 «

«*«

«*«

1 .9

-5 * 6

8 -9 «

1«*7

1 5*6

2« .«

26* 7

66*5

9 7 .1
9 6 .8

1« 1 .«

2«*8

2 5 .5

5 4 .«

4 4* 2

76* 4

86*8

l« - 9 «

26* 5

51*5

5 9* 6

49*«

72* 5

75* 5

64*4

9 -9 «

1 -9 1

1 « 6 .4
119*9

1 1 -9 «

2 5 .5

2 7 .2

55*5

59*1

52* 4

48*«

5 1* 7

5*5

1 2 -9 «

1 9 .9

22.6

26* 9

58*4

58*6

52* 4

18*«

«*«

1 -9 1

1 4 .5

16*«

18*7

2« *4

24* 9

18*«

5*2

2 -9 1

8.«

8*9

1«*4

1«*7

12*9

5 -9 1

4*5

5*«

5 *9

5 *7

4 -9 1

5*5

5*8

4*5

5 -9 1

4*5

4*9

6 -9 1

5 *4

7 -9 1

1 1 1 .4
-5 * 5

1 1 « .9

- 9 * 4 - 1 6 .« -2 5 * 6

1«8*2

5*8

-5 * 5 -1 7 * 8 - 2 4 . 5 -5 2 * 4 -5 8 * 5

1 « 5 .9

6*9

• *5

- 9 * 5 -1 9 * 7 - 2 S .« - 5 « . 7 -5 5 * 1 -2 7 * 1

4*2

5*1

-•* 7

- 9 * 5 -1 7 * 9 - 2 1 . 9 -2 5 * 6 - 2 5 . 6 -1 8 * 1

5*6

5*4

6*4

5*6

4*2

5 *9

2 *9

5 .«

5*5

8 -9 1

2*5

2 .7

9 -9 1

5*1

lt - 9 1

5*«
5 -9 «

1« 1 .2
-8 .«

1 « « .5

-6 * 5 -1 5 * 5 - 1 6 . 5 -1 8 * 4 - 1 6 * 5

-7 * 5

4*2

4*6

1*2
-•*1

-6 * 8 - 1 5 * 2 -1 5 * 6 -1 7 * 2 - 1 5 * 4

-8 * 4

-1 * 2

2*4 - 1 1 * 2

5*2

5*8

-« * 5

- 6 * 6 - 1 2 . 5 -1 4 * 5 -1 5 * 5 -1 5 * 7

-7 * 7

-2 * 1

«*«

-8 * «

-4 * 7

5*1

2*8

5 *5

-« * 7

- 6 * 2 -1 1 * 4 -1 5 * 1 - 1 4 . « - 1 2 * 2

-6 * 8

-2 * 1

-•*6

-6 * 1

-5 * 5

5 .5

5*7

5 *4

4*«

• *5

-4 * 8

-9 * 4 -1 « * 8 -1 1 * 4

-9 * 4

-4* 5

• *2

1 *9

-1 * 8

5 .2

5*6

5 *4

5 *9

«*4

-4 * 5

-8 * 5

- 9 * 7 -1 « * 1

-8 * 2

-5 * 4

• *5

2*«

-• * 9

4 -9 «

5 -9 «

6 -9 «

7 -9 «

8 -9 «

9 -9 « l« - 9 « 1 1 -9 « 1 2 -9 «

1 -9 1

2 -9 1

5 -9 1

4 -9 1

5 -9 1




18*1

1 1 1 .9
1 « « .9

1*6
1*8
6 -9 1

lit . 5
-2 * 4

1««*5

4*9

12*6

4*«

7 .4

2 .4

7 -9 1

8 -9 1

9 -9 1

1 * 1 .3

1«1*S

P r ep a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Ia n k o f S t* L o u is
N oveaber 1 4 , 1991

3

P r o d u c e r Price I n d e x - Finished G o o d s
Percent Chong# From Previous Y#or
S#o#ono0y Adjusted
Perc#nt

Percent

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

Prepared by F#d#rol R###rv# Bonk of St. Loot«

P r o d u c e r

P r i c e

I n d e x

-

F in is h e d

G o o d s

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )
T o r a in o l
M on th

I n i t i a l M o n th
5-9#

4-9#

- 1 .#

5-9#

1*5

4-9#

5-9#

6 -9 #

7-9#

9-9 # l# -9 # 11-9# 12-9#

1 962 - 1##
2 -9 1

3 -9 1

4 -9 1

5 -9 1

6 -9 1

6 -9 1

9 -9 1

117 *6

4*2

6-9#

4*1

9*#

14*1

5 *5

5*9

117*6
116*#
119*3

12#* 6

6*1

7 *5

6*4

11*3

15*1

16*2

l# -9 #

7*4

6*9

9 *9

12*5

15*4

16*1

16*#

8*3

9*#

1#*9

1 2*7

12*3

1#*4

5*#

9*#

7 *7

5*1

#*#

-4 * 6

7*6

6*4

4*#

#*3

-1 * 9

1 22*3

122*6

11-9#

7*1

12-9#

5*7

1 -9 1

5 *2

6*6 6 * 9 6*2
6*# 6*2 7*1

2 -9 1

3 *9

4*4

4*4

5*#

5*1

3 .7

1*4

-1 * 9

-4 * 2

-3 9

- 6 .5

5 -9 1

3 *3

3 *7

3*7

4*1

4*1

2 *7

#*7

-2 .1

-3 * 9

-3 5

-5 * 7

-2 * 9

4 -9 1

3*1

3*5

3*4

3*e

3 *7

2 *5

#*7

- 1 .6

-2 * 9

-3 * 5

-1*#

1#

3*7

4*#

4 .#

2 *9

1 .4

1 *3

3 5

6*1

•7

#*5

-4 * 6

-# *7

-3 * 9

-2 * 9

5 -9 1

3*4

3*7

6 -9 1

2*e

3*1

7 -9 1

2*4

e -9 i

2*5

9 -9 1

2*4

1#-91

2*7
3-9#

7 -9 1

117*2

7-9#

9-9#

1 -9 1

4 *2

1*# 2*1 #*#
1*6 2. * 2*1

6-9#

e-9#

2*1 #*7
2*7
2*5
2*7
2*6 1.6 #*3
2 *7
2*6 2*6 2*7 1*6 #*5
2*6 2*5 2*6 2 *5 1 *7 #*6
2*9
2*e 3*# 2*9 2*2 1*1

4 -9 #

3*#

5-9#




3*2

6 -9 #

3 .1

7-9#

6-9#

122*3

1•

-#.6

-1 * 5

- 1 .1

-1 * 9

-1 * 3

-2 * 1

-# *9

- 1 .5

-2 4
-# 6
-1 5
-1 7
-1 1

- # .7

-1 .3

-# 9

#.#

-# *4

•#

9 -9 # l# -9 # 11-9# 12-9#

122*4

-1 * 2

121*5

-1 * 4

-#*2
-#*6
-#.2

-1 * 1

#.#

-1 * 9
-2 * 1

-#*1 1*#
1 -9 1

2 -9 1

121*2

-#

2

1 21*3
1 21 *9
121*4

121*1

# 4

#*2

-1 * 6

#*#

3*#

•5

#*4

-1*#

#*3

2*#

1*#

16

1 *7

4*#

4*5

7 -9 1

6 -9 1

3 -9 1

4 -9 1

#*6 2*2
5 -9 1

6 -9 1

121*4
1 2 1 .5

6*2

122*3

9 -9 1

P r « p r » d b y F t d t r a l R m r v t la n k o f S t . L o u is
H o v a fe tr 1 3 , 1991

4

Civilian E m p l o y m e n t a n d U n e m p l o y m e n t R a t e
SeosonoNy Adjusted
MUftons of Persons

Percent

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

Shoded oreo represents o period of business recession.
Percentages ore annual rotes of change for periods ¡ndfoated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bonk of St Louis

C

i v

i l i a

n

E m

p lo y m

e n t

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )

Ttralntl
Month

Initial Month

5 -9 «
4 -9 «

4 -9 «

5 -9 «

6 -9 «

7 -9 «

6 -9 «

9 -9 « l« - 9 « 1 1 -9 « 1 2 -9 «

- 1 .5

1 -9 1

2 -9 1

5 -9 1

«.2

1 .9

6 -9 «

«.«

« .7

-« .4

7 -9 «

-« .9

-« .7

- 2 .«

-5 .5

« -9 «

-1 .1

-1 .«

-2 .«

-2 .7

6 -9 1

7 -9 1

6 -9 1

9 -9 1

Thousand« of
Porsons

9 -9 «

1 1 6 ,2 7 7
1 1 6 ,2 5 7
1 1 7 ,6 6 2
- 1 .9

1 1 7 ,6 9 «

-«.6

-« .4

-1 .«

- 1 .2

«.«

l« - 9 «

-« .7

-«.6

- 1 .1

-1 .5

-« .5

1 1 -9 «

-1 .1

- 1 .«

- 1 .5

- 1 .7

- 1 .5

-1 .«

-2 .5

- 5 .5

1 2 -9 «

-« .7

-« .7

- 1 .«

-1 .1

-«.6

-« .5

- 1 .«

-«.6

1 -9 1

- 1 .5

-1 .5

-1 .7

-1 .9

- 1 .6

-1 .6

- 2 .4

- 2 .7

- 2 .5

- 6 .5

2 -9 1

- 1 .2

- 1 .2

- 1 .5

-1 .7

-1 .4

-1 .5

- 2 .«

-2 .1

-1 .6

-5 .5

«.«

5 -9 1

-1 .5

- 1 .2

- 1 .5

-1 .7

- 1 .4

- 1 .4

-1 .9

-2 .«

-1 .6

- 2 .6

-« .9

4 -9 1

-« .7

-«.6

-«.«

-« .9

-« .5

-« .4

-« .7

-«.6

«.«

-« .4

2.«
«.2

1 1 7 ,6 6 5
-1 .5

1 1 7 ,7 5 5
1 1 7 ,5 6 6
1 .9

1 1 7 ,5 7 4
1 1 6 ,9 2 2
1 1 6 ,9 1 6

5 -9 1

- 1 .2

-1 .2

-1 .4

-1 .5

- 1 .5

- 1 .2

- 1 .6

-1 .7

-1 .5

- 2 .«

6 -9 1

-« .9

-« .9

-1 .1

-1 .1

-« .9

-«.ft

- 1 .1

-1 .1

-« .7

-1 .2

7 -9 1

- 1 .«

-« .9

- 1 .1

- 1 .2

- 1 .«

-« .9

-1 .2

-1 .2

-« .9

- 1 .5

-1 7
1.6 2 5 6.6
-«.6 -11 -«.6
-«.1 -• 1 « .4
-« .4
-« 4 -«.1

e -9 i

- 1 .1

-1 .1

-1 .5

1 « -9 1

5 -9 1

1 1 6 ,« 9 «

5 -9 «

9 -9 1

4 -9 1

1 1 6 ,7 5 4
1 1 7 ,3 9 6
-7 .9
-2 .6

1 1 6 ,5 9 1
5 .1

1 1 6 ,6 6 4

- 1 .5

- 1 .1

-1 .1

-1 .4

-1 .5

- 1 .1

- 1 .5

-« .7

-•

9

-« .7

-2 .5

- 2 .4

-5 .«

-«.6 -«.6 - « . 7
-«.7 -«.6 -«.6

«.6
-«.6

-« .7

-« .5

-« .4

-«.6

-« .5

-« .5

« .5

«

4

« .7

-« .5

1 .5

1.«

2 .4

6.«

-«.e

-«.6

-«.2

-« .5

-«.7

-«.7

-« .4

-«.6 «.1

•

1

« .5

-«.7

«.6

«.2

«.9

2 .9

-2.«

5 -9 «

6 -9 «

7 -9 «

«-9«

9-9«

5 -9 1

4 -9 1

6 -9 1

7 -9 1

6 -9 1

9 -9 1

4 -9 «

5 -9 «




l« - 9 « 1 1 -9 «

12-9«

1 -9 1

2 -9 1

-2 .5

5 -9 1

- 1 .6

1 1 6 ,7 1 2
U 6 ,4 1 6
1 1 7 ,1 6 5
1 1 6 ,9 6 7

P r e p f #d b y F t d i r t l R t t t r v t Sank o f S t . L o u is
Nov— b ir 1 , 1991

5

Payroll E m p l o y m e n t
SeosonoDy Adjusted
Millions of Persons

Utlfions of Persons
125

115

-1 0 5

95

85

75

65
1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

Shoded oreo represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indteated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis

P a y r o l l

E m p lo y m e n t

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )

Tartinai
Month
3-96
4-9«
i.i
5-96
2.#
6-96
1.6
7-9#
•.9
6-9#
i.5
9-9«
•♦3
16-96
i.i
11-96 -6.2
12-9« -•.4
1-91 -t.6
2-91 -6.6
3-91 -•♦9
4-91 -1.6
5-91 -•♦6
6-91 -•.6
7-91 -6.7
6-91 -•.6
9-91 -t.6
It-91 -6.5

Thousands of
Initial Month
Parsons
4-9# 5-9f 6-9i 7-9i 6-9i 9-9# Ü-9# 11-9« 12-9i 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 6-91 9-91
169,934
4.1
116,364
1Ü,435
2.6 1.4
lli,269
1.2 -#.2 -1.6
lit,16*
•.6 -i.5 -1.5 -1.2
lli,113
6.4 -i.5 -1.2 -i.6 -i.5
li9,962
6.1 -i.7 -1.2 -l.i -l.i -1.4
li9,761
-6.3 -l.i -1.5 -1.4 -1.4 -1.9 -2.4
li9,621
-t.4 -1.1 -1.5 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 -2.i -1.5
-•.6 -1.2 -1.6 -1.5 -1.6 -1.9 -2.i -1.9 -2.2
169,416
169,160
-t.6 -1.4 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 -2.1 -2.2 -2.2 -2.5 -2.6
li6,962
•l.i -1.5 -1.6 -1.9 -1.9 -2.2 -2.3 -2.3 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6
-1.1 -1.5 -1.6 -1.6 -1.9 -2.1 -2.3 -2.2 -2.4 -2.5 -2.3 -1.6
1*6,736
-i.9 -1.3 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 -1.6 -1.4 -l.i -i.l 1.7
166,667
-6.6 -1.2 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.5 -1.5 -1.4 -1.3 -1.2 -i.6 -i.l i.6 i.i
166,665
-6.6 -1.1 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.4 -1.4 -1.2 -1.2 -l.i -i.7 -i.l i.5 -i.2 -i.3
166,659
-i.7 -l.i -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -l.i -i.9 -i.7 -i.3 i.2 i.6 i.3 i.5 1.2
166,971
-•.6 -i.9 -l.i -l.i -l.i -l.i -l.i -i.6 -i.7 -i.5 -i.2 i.2 i.6 i.4 i.5 i.9 i.5
169,619
-6.6 -i.6 -l.i -i.9 -i.9 -i.9 -i.9 -i.7 -i.7 -i.5 -i.2 i.2 i.5 i.3 i.4 i.6 i.3 i.i
169,616

3-9» 4-9i 5-96 6-9i 7-9i 6-9i 9-9i 16-96 ll-9i 12-9i 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 6-91 9-91




P ra p a ca d by F a d a ra 1 R m t v i
Nov— b a r 1 , 1991

la n k o f S t * L o u is

S e r v ic e - P r o d u c in g

E m

p lo y m

e n t

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )

Initial Month
Terainel
Month
5-9# 4-9# 5-9# 6-9# 7-9# •-9# 9-9# l#-9# 11-9# 12-9# 1-91
4-9«
1.5
5-9#
5.5 5.7
6-9#
5.2 4.1 2.6
7-9#
2.# 2.5 #.6 -1.4
•-9#
1.6 1.6 #.5 -#.* -#.5
9-9«
1.4 1.4 #.4 -#.5 #.2 #.7
It”
9#
1.2 1.2 #.5 -#.2 #.2 #.4 #.1
11-9#
l.l 1.# #.5 -#.2 #.1 #.5 #.1 #.#
12-9#
#.9 #.6 #.2 -#.2 #.# 0.1 -#.1 -#.2 -#.5
1-91
#.* #.7 #.1 -#.2 #.# #.# -#.1 -#.2 -#.5 -#.1
2-91
#.6 #.5 -#.1 -#.4 -#.2 -#.2 -#.4 -# .5 -#.7 -#.9 -1.6
5-91
#.4 #.5 -#.2 -# .5 -#.4 -#.4 -#.6 -#.7 -#.9 -1.# -1.5
4-91
#.5 #.2 -#.5 -#.6 -# .5 -# .5 -#.7 -#.* -#.9 -1.1 -1.4
#.4 #.5 -#.1 -#.4 -#.5 -#.5 -#.4 -# .5 -#.6 -#.6 -#.7
5-91
#.4 #.5 -# .1 -# .5 -#.2 -#.2 -# .5 -# .5 -#.4 -#.4 -#.4
6-91
#.5 -# .1 -# .5 -#.2 -#.2 -# .5 -# .5 -#.4 -#.4 -#.4
#.5
7-91
6-91
#.4 #.5 #.# -#.2 -# .1 -# .1 -#.2 -#.2 -#.2 -#.2 -#.2
#.4 #.4 #.1 -#.1 #.# #.# -#.1 -#.1 -#.1 #.# #.#
9-91
lt-91
#.5 #.4 #.1 #.# #.# #.1 #.# #.# #.# #.1 #.1
5-9# 4-9# 5-9# 6-9# 7-9#

e-9#

9-9#

2-91 5-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 e-9i 9-91

Thousands of
Persons
*4,769
*5,165
*5,542
*5,242
*5,225
*5,271
*5,277
*5,2*#
*5,246
*5,257
* 5 ,i a

-1.5
-1.5 -1.2
-#.4 #.1

1.4

-# .1

#.5

1.1

#.6

-#.2
t.l
#.2
#.5

#.1

#.6
#.7
#.6
#.6

#.1

-6 .5

#.5
#.7
#.7

#.4
#.6
#.7

#.5
#.5
#.5

*5,#25
*4,942
*5,#4#
*5,#95

1.2
1.2

1.2

1.1

1.»

*5,#61
*5,145
*5,227
*5,291

#.9

l#-9# 11-9# 12-9# 1-91 2-91 5-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 •-91 9-91

P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B ank o f S t . L o u is
N ovem ber 1 , 1991

G o o d s - P r o d u c in g

E m

p lo y m

e n t

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )
T e r m in a l
M o n th

I n i t i a l M o n th
5 -9 #

4-9#

5-9#

6-9#

7-9#

4-9#

-4 .2

5-9#

- 2 .7

-1 .1

6-9#

- 2 .5

-1 .7

- 2 .5

7-9#

-2 .7

- 2 .2

- 2 .7

- 5 .1

*-9#

- 5 .#

- 2 .7

-5 .2

-5 .7

- 4 .2

9-9#

-5 .2

-5 .1

- 5 .5

-5 .9

-4 .4

* -9#

9-9# l# -9 # 11-9# 12-9#

1 -9 1

2 -9 1

5 -9 1

4 -9 1

5 -9 1

6 -9 1

7 -9 1

Thousands o f
P e rso n s
* -9 1

9 -9 1
2 5 ,1 6 5
2 5 ,1 4 1
2 5 ,6 9 5

2 5,# 27
2 4 ,9 5 7
- 4 .5

2 4 ,* 4 2

l# -9 #

-5 .7

-5 .6

-4 .1

- 4 .6

- 5 .#

-5 .5

-6 .4

11-9#

-4 .6

- 4 .6

- 5 .2

-5 .*

- 6 .4

-7 .1

- * . 4 - 1 # .4

12-9#

- 4 .6

- 4 .7

- 5 .2

- 5 .6

-6 .1

- 6 .6

-7 .5

- 7 .*

-5 .1

1 -9 1

-5 .1

- 5 .2

-5 .7

-6 .1

- 6 .6

- 7 .1

-7 .*

-*.2

-7 .1

- 9 .1

2 -9 1

- 5 .2

- 5 .5

-5 .*

- 6 .2

- 6 .7

- 7 .1

-7 .6

- 7 .9

- 7 .#

-* .#

-6 .*

5 -9 1

-5 .5

- 5 .6

- 6 .#

-6 .4

- 6 .*

- 7 .2

-7 .6

- 7 .9

- 7 .2

-7 .9

-7 .5

- 7 .*

4 -9 1

-5 .4

-5 .4

-5 .*

- 6 .2

- 6 .5

-6 .*

-7 .1

- 7 .2

- 6 .6

- 7 .#

-6 .2

- 6 .#

- 4 .1

5 -9 1

-4 .*

-4 .*

-5 .1

-5 .4

-5 .6

- 5 .*

-5 .9

- 5 .9

-5 .1

- 5 .1

-4 .1

-5 .2

- # .*

6 -9 1

-4 .7

-4 .7

- 5 .#

-5 .2

-5 .4

-5 .5

-5 .6

- 5 .5

- 4 .*

- 4 .7

-5 .*

- 5 .1

- 1 .4

7 -9 1

- 4 .4

-4 .4

-4 .6

-4 .«

- 4 .9

- 5 .#

- 5 .#

-4 .9

-4 .2

- 4 .#

-5 .1

-2 .4

* -9 1

- 4 .#

- 4 .#

-4 .2

-4 .5

-4 .4

-4 .5

- 4 .5

-4 .5

- 5 .6

- 5 .4

- 2 .5

9 -9 1

-5 .9

-5 .9

-4 .1

-4 .2

-4 .2

-4 .2

- 4 .2

- 4 .#

-5 .4

- 5 .2

- 2 .4

lt - 9 1

-5 .9

-5 .*

- 4 .#

-4 .1

-4 .2

- 4 .2

-4 .2

- 4 .#

-5 .4

- 5 .2

5 -9 #

4 -9 #

5-9#

6-9#

7-9#

* -9 #

9 -9# l# -9 # 1 1-9# 12-9#




2 4 ,7 # 5
2 4 ,4 * 1
2 4 ,5 7 5
2 4 ,1 * 1
24,# 59
2 5 ,* 7 7
2 5 ,7 9 4
2 .7

2 5 ,* 4 7

- 1 .#

-#.1
#.1

- 1 .2

# .5

- 1 .*

- # .5

# .4

- # .4

# .9

1 .4

- 1 .*

- # .7

#.#

- # .7

#.#

-#.2

-1 .7

- 2 .5

-1 .9

- 1 .1

-#.6

-1 .2

- # .*

- 1 .2

-2 .5

-5 .2

1 -9 1

2 -9 1

5 -9 1

4 -9 1

5 -9 1

6 -9 1

7 -9 1

* -9 1

9 -9 1

- 2 .7

2 5 ,7 9 2
2 5 ,7 9 *
2 5 ,* 2 6
2 5 ,7 9 2

P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e la n k o f S t .
H o v e a b e r 1 , 1991

7

2 5 ,7 2 7

L o u is

C h a n g e i n t h e E m p l o y m e n t C o s t I n d e x a n d Its C o m p o n e n t s
Percent Chong« From Previou» Y«or
SeosonoMy Adjusted
Percent

Percent

8

1985

1987

1986

1988

1989

1990

1991

Total compensation it the «um of benefit« and wages and solaries for privat« industry workers.
Prepared by Federo! Reserve Bank of S t Louis

E m

p lo y m

e n t

C o s t

I n d e x

-

T o t a l

C o m

p e n s a t io n

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )

Ten inai
Q u a rte r

1-67
2-67
3-87
4-67
1-66
2-66
3-66
4-66
1-69
2-69
3-69
4-69
1-9#
2-9#
3-9#
4-9#
1-91
2-91
3-91

Initial Quarter
June 1969 - lit
4-66 1-67 2-67 3-67 4-67 1-66 2-66 3-66 4-66 1-69 2-69 3-69 4-69 1-9# 2-9« 3-9# 4-9# 1-91 2-91
3.1
9#.9
3.1 3.1
91.6
3.4 3.6 4.#
92.5
3.4 3.5 3.7 3.5
93.3
3.6 4.# 4.2 4.4 5.2
94.5
4.# 4.2 4.5 4.6 5.2 5.2
95.7
4.# 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.7 4.5 3.6
96.6
4.1 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.4 5.1
97.6
4.1 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.6 4.3 4.6 4.2
96.6
4.2 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.5 4.9
1##.#
4.3 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.9 4.6 5.1 5.3
1#1.3
4.3 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.9 4.9 4.4
1#2.4
4.4 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.9 4.6 4.6 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.# 5.6
1#3.6
4.5 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.9 4.6 4.6 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.» 5.3 5.1
1#5«1
4.5
1#6.2
4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.4 4.# 3.6
1#7.2
4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.6
1#6.4
4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.7 4.9
1#9.7
4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.4
11#.9

4-66 1-67 2-67 3-67 4-67 1-66 2-66 3-66 4-66 1-69 2-69 3-69 4-69 1-9# 2-9# 3-9# 4-9# 1-91 2-91
B a ta a r e f o r th e l a s t a o n th o f q u a r te r *




P re p a re d b y F e d e r a l R e s e rv e Ban k o f S t .
O c to b e r 2 9 , 1991

8

L o u is

Industrial P r o d u c t i o n
Seosonotiy Adjusted
1987-100

1987-100

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

Shoded oreo represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annuo) rates of change for periods ¡ntfcated.
Prepared by Federo) Reserve Bank of St. Louis

I n

d u

s t r i a l

P r o d u c t io n

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )

Ttr«lml
Month
3-99
4-99 -1.1
5-99
2.6
6-99
4.5
7-99
4.2
6-99
3.6
9-99
3.1
19-99
1.6
11-99 -9.6
12-99 -2.1
1-91 -2.5
2-91 -3.2
5-91 -3.6
4-91 -2.9
5-91 -2.9
6-91 -1.2
7-91 -9.6
6-91 -9.6
9-91 -9.4
19-91 -9.4

Initial Honth
4-99 5-99 6-99 7-99 6-99 9-99 19-99 11-99 12-99 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 6-91 9-91
6.6
7.4
6.9
4.6
4.9
2.9
-9.6
-2.2
-2.7
-3.4
-3.6
-3.9
-2.9
-1.2
-9.5
-9.6
-9.4
-9.4

6.9
5.6
4.1
3.3
1.1
-2.9
-3.4
-3.6
-4.5
-4.6
-3.9
-2.7
-1.6
-1.9
-1.9
-9.6
-9.6

1967 * 109
196.6
199.4
110.1

3.3
2.2
1.6
-9.5
-3.9
-5.2
-5.4
-5.9
-6.1
-5.9
-3.7
-2.5
-1.7
-1.6
-1.4
-1.3

110.4
1.1
1.1
-1.6
-5.6
-6.6
-6.6
-7.2
-7.2
-5.9
-4.3
-3.1
-2.1
-2.9
-1.7
-1.6

1.1
-3.2
-7.7
-6.7
-6.3
-6.5
-6.4
-6.7
-4.9
-3.5
-2.4
-2.3
-1.9
-1.6

-7.3
-11.6
-11.7
-19.5
-19.3
-9.9
-7.6
-5.6
-4.9
-2.7
-2.6
-2.2
-2.9

-16.1
-13.9
-11.5
-11.9
-19.4
-7.6
-5.4
-3.5
-2.2
-2.1
-1.7
-1.5

-11.5
-9.1
-9.3
-6.9
-6.1
-3.5
-1.6
-9.3
-9.4
-9.1
-9.1

-6.5
-6.1
-6.9
-4.7
-1.6
9.2
1.4
1.1
1.2
1.1

-9.7
-6.7 -7.7
-4.1 -1.1
-9.6 2.7
1.6 4.6
2.6 5.5
2.3 4.4
2.3 4.1
2.9 3.6

5.9
6.3 19.7
9.1 19.7 19.6
9.1 19.2 19.9
7.9 7.3 6.2
6.2 6.3 5.2
5.3 5.2 4.1

9.3
4.9 -1.1
3.4 9.6
2.5 9.4

2.2
1.1

9.9

110.5
110.6
199.9
106.3
107.2
106.6
105.7
105.0
105.5
106.4
107.3
106.1
106.0
106.2
106.2

3-99 4-99 5-99 6-99 7-99 6-99 9-99 19-99 11-99 12-99 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 6-91 9-91




P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e rv e Ban k o f S t .
H o v a a b a r 1 5 , 1991

9

L o u is

P e r s o n a l I n c o m e in 1 9 8 2 Dollars
Seaeonofly Adjutted
T r B S o n t o f D o llo r t

T r it ö o n t o f D o llo r t

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

Th« personol consumption expendKuret deflator it ueed to calculate reol pertonal income
Shoded area repreeentt a period of butinett receetlon.
Percentage* are annual ratet of change for period« indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louit
D

is p o s a b le

P e r s o n a l

I n c o m e

i n

1 9 8 2

D

o lla r s

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )

Tereinal
Honth
5-9«
4-9« -5.1
5-9« -1.7
6-9« -«.2
7-9«
«.2
*-9« -1.«
9-9« -1.5
l«-9« -2.6
11-9« -2.«
12-9« -1.2
1-91 -2.1
2-91 -1.9
5-91 -1.4
4-91 -1.4
5-91 -«.9
6-91 -«.5
7-91 -«.5
*-91 -«.4
9-91 -«.5
It"91 -«.2
5-9#

lillions of Dollart
Initial Honth
Annual Rat««
*-91
9-91
4-9« 5-9# 6-9# 7-9# *-9# 9-9# l#-9# 11-9# 12-9# 1-91 2-91 5-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91
2,9#1.#
2,9##.4
-#.2
2,9#7.1
1.5 2.*
2,911.6
1.5 2.1 1.5
2,*96.*
-#.4 -#.5 -2.1 -5.5
2,**6.*
-1.2 -1.4 -2.» -4.* -4.1
2,*65.7
-2.6 -5.# -4.4 -6.5 -6.7 -9.2
2,*69.9
-1.* -2.1 -5.# -4.1 -5.7 -5.5 2.6
2,**5.5
-#.9 -1.# -1.6 -2.2 -1.4 -#.5 4.2 5.*
-2.# -2.2 -2.9 -5.6 -5.2 -5.# -#.* -2.5 -1#.2
2,*57.*
-1.7 -1.9 -2.5 -5.# -2.6 -2.5 -#.5 -1.5 -5.# #.5
2,*5*.9
-1.2 -1.5 -1.7 -2.1 -1.6 -1.2 #.5 -#.1 -2.# 2.4 4.4
2,*69.2
2,*65.9
-1.2 -1.5 -1.7 -2.# -1.6 -1.2 #.2 -#.5 -1.* 1.1 1.5 -1.4
-#.* -#.* -1.1 -1.4 -#.9 -#.5 #.* #.5 -#.5 2.# 2.5 1.6 4.7
2,*76.9
-#.5 -#.5 -#.6 -#.7 -#.2 #.2 1.4 1.5 #.5 2.* 5.4 5.1 5.5 6.#
2,*9#.9
-#.4 -#.4 -#.6 -#.* -#.4 #.# 1.1 #.9 #.2 2.1 2.4 1.9 5.# 2.2 -1.4
2,**7.5
2,*95.4
-#.2 -#.2 -#.4 -#.5 -#.1 #.2 1.2 1.1 #.5 2.1 2.4 2.# 2.9 2.5 #.5 2.5
-#.1 -#.1 -#.5 -#.4 #.# #.5 1.5 1.1 #.6 2.# 2.5 1.9 2.6 2.1 #.* 1.9 1.5
2,*96.5
-#.1 #.# -#.2 - # .5 #.# #.4 1.2 1.1 #.6 1.9 2.1 1.* 2 . 5 1. * #.* 1.5 1.# #.*
2,*9*.4
4-9#

5-9#




6 -9 «

7-9#

*- 9 #

9-9# l# - 9 # 11-9# 12-9#

1-91

2-91

5-91

4 -91

5-91

6-91

7-91

*- 9 1

9-91

P r o p e r a d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e la n k o f S t .
O c to b e r 5 « , 1991

10

L o u is

Retail Sales
Seosonoiy Adjusted
B & fto n s o f D o llo r s

B U B o n « o f D o lo r s

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

Shoded orsa represents o period of business recession.
The CPI is used to deflate rstafl sates data.
Percentages ore annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
R

e

t a i l

S a le s

i n

1 9 8 2 - 8 4

D

o lla r s

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )

Tarainal
Month
5-9«
4-9« -7.6
5-9« -6*6
6-9« -5.2
7-9« -2*6
S-9« -5.5
9-9« -5.1
10-9« -5*7
11-9« -2*9
12-9« -5*5
1-91 -7.«
2-91 -4.5
5-91 -5.6
4-91 -5.9
5-91 -2.9
6-91 -2*9
7-91 -2*6
•-91 -5*1
9-91 -2*6
1«-91 -2*7

Initial Month
4-9« 5-9« 6-9« 7-9« 6-9« 9-9« l«-9« 11-9« 12-9« 1-91 2-91 5-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 «-91 9-91
-5.5
-«.7
-1.1
-2.4
-2.1
-2.9
-2.2
-5.2
-6.9
-5.9
-5.5
-5.5
-2.5
-2.5
-2.5
-2.«
-2*5
-2*4

4*«
1*«
-1*4
-1*5
-2*5
-1.7
-5.2
-7.1
-5*6
-5.«
-5.4
-2.5
-2.5
-2.«
-2.6
-2.5
-2.5

-1.9
-4.«
-5.1
-4.«
-2.e
-6.7
-6*5
-4*7
-5*6
-4*1
-2*6
-2*6
-2.5
-5.1
-2.7
-2.7

-6.«
-5.7
-4.7
-5.1
-7.6
-9.6
-5.1
-4.«
-4.5
-2.9
-2.9
-2.5
-5.2
-2*6
-2.7

-1.5
-4.1
-2.1
-6.«
-1«.5
-5.«
-5.«
-4.1
-2.5
-2.6
-2.2
-2.9
-2.5
-2.5

-6.9
-2.5
-l«.l
-12.4
-5.7
-4.2
-4.5
-2.7
-2.7
-2.5
-5.1
-2.6
-2.6

2.2
-11.7
-14.2
-5.4
-5.6
-4.1
-2.1
-2.2
-1*6
-2.7
-2.2
-2.2

-25.7
-21.4 -19 •
-7*6 1 6 26.6
-5.« 2 2 14.a 5*9
-5.5 « « 7.2 -1*4 -6.4
-2.« 2 1 6*1 2*5 1.* 16.6
-2.6 1 2 5*6 1*1 «.1 5*6
-2.5 1 2 5*1 1*2 «.5 5*«
-5.2 -• 5 2.7 -«*6 -1.7 -«.5
-2.6 • « 2*7 -«.5 -1.« «.1
-2.6 -• 2 2*2 -«.5 -1.2 -«.5

-5.1
-«.7 1.7
-4.« -4.4 -1«.2
-2.4 -2.2 -4.1
-2.5 -2.1 -5.4

Millions of
Dollars

2.5
0.2 -1*9

115,649
115,126
115,505
115,524
114,729
114,666
115,931
114,134
111,567
1*9,646
111,637
112,196
111,579
112,555
112,257
112,595
111,391
111,616
111,434

5-9« 4-9« 5-9« 6-9« 7-9« 6-9« 9-9« l«-9« 11-9« 12-9« 1-91 2-91 5-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 e-9i 9-91
« • t a i l M i t t d a ta d a f la t a d b y C P I- U (1 9 6 2 - 6 4 - 1 « « ).




P r a p a r a d b y F a d a r a l R a s a rv a E a n k o f S t *
Nov — b t r 1 4 , m i

11

L o u is

I n v e n t o r ie s

C o m

p a r e d

W

it h

M

o n t h ly

S a le s

Manufacturing and Trod«
Seosonafly Adjusted
Ratio

Ratio

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Tederai Reserve Bank of S t Louis

B u s in e s s

I n v e n t o r ie s

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )

Tsrainal
Month
2-9# 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 6-90
5-9«
1.2
4-9#
2.2 3.2
5-96
3.3 4.4 5.6
6-9*
1.2 1.1 0.1 -5.1
7-9#
2.6 2.9 2.6 1.5 6.5
«-9#
3.4 3.6 4.0 3.5 6.1 7.6
9-90
3.4 3.6 3.9 3.5 6.5 5.5 3.4
It-90
3.6 4.2 4.3 4.1 6.5 5.9 5.0
11-90
3.7 4.0 4.1 3.9 5.6 5.1 4.3
12-90
2.5 2.7 2.6 2.2 3.4 2.4 1.2
1-91
2.9 3.1 3.0 2.7 3.9 3.1 2.5
2-91
2.2 2.3 2.3 1.9 2.6 2.0 1.1
3-91
1.1 1.1 0.9 0.4 1.1 0.2 -0.6
*-91
0.7 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.6 -0.3 -1.2
5-91
0.2 0.1 -O.l -0.6 -0.2 -1.0 -1.9
6-91 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -1.1 '-••7 -1.5
7-91 -0.3
-0.6 -1.0 -0.7 -1.5 -2.2
6-91 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -1.0 -•♦7 -1.4 -2.1
9-91
0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.5 -0.1 -0.7 -1.3

Initial Month
9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 6-91

Millions of
Dollars
610,630

612,976
616,667

6.7
4.6
0.5
2.0
0.7
-1.5
-1.9
-2.6
-3.#
-2.6
-2.5
-1.7

3.0
-2.5
0.5
-0.6
-3.1
-3.2
-3.6
-4.2
-3.6
-3.4
-2.5

-7 7
-0 7
-2 0
-4 6
-4 4
-4 9
-5 2
-4 6
-4 1
-3 0

6.7
0.9
-3.5
-3.6
-4.4
-4.7
-4.1
-3.7
-2.5

-4.6
-6.2
-6.6
-7.0
-6.9
-5.6
-5.1
-3.5

-11.6
-7.9
-7.7
-7.4
-6.1
-5.1
-3.4

-3.9
-5.6
-6.0
-4.6
-3.6
-1.9

-7.3
-7.0 -6.6
-4.9 -3.6 -0.4
-3.7 -2.5 -0.3 -0.2
-1.5 0,0 2.3 3.7

7.7

613,116
616,669
623,663
625,964
630,414
632,464
626,941
631,445
626,201
619,615
616,693
611,713
607,105
606,602
666,646
611,665

2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 6-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 6-91




P r t p tf t d b y F t d t r a l R t M r v t Bank o f S t .
M o v w b a r 1 5 , 1991

12

L o u is

G r o s s

N

a t io n a l

P r o d u c t

Seosonofly Adjusted
T rM o n a o f D o « o r*

1985

T r illio n » o f O o H o rs

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

Shoded oreo represents a period of business recession.
Percentages ore annuol rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of S t Louis

G r o s s

N

a t io n a l

P r o d u c t

i n

1 9 8 7

D

o

l l a r s

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )

Tarainal
Initial Ouartar
Quartar
4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 1-9# 2-9#
1-87
5.#
2-87
4.# 4.9
5-87
4.# 4.5 4.1
4-87
4.6 5.1 5.2 6.2
1-88
4.2 4.6 4.4 4.6 5.#
2-88
4.2 4.4 4.5 4.5 5.4 5.8
5-88
5.9 4.1 5.9 5.8 5.1 5.1 2.4
4-88
4.# 4.1 4.# 5.9 5.4 5.5 5.4 4.5
1-89
5.8 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.1 5.1 2.9 5.2 2.1
2-89
5.5 5.6 5.4 5.5 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.6 1.8 1.5
5-89
5.5 5.4 5.2 5.1 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 1.6 1.4 1.4
4-89
5.2 5.2 5.# 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.2 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.8
1-9#
5.1 5.1 2.9 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.7
2-9«
2.9 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.2 2.# 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 #.9
5-9#
2.8 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.1 2.#
1.8 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.1 #.8 #.7
4-9#
2.4 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.7 1.6
1.5 #.9 #.8 #.6 #.5 #.2 -e.5
1-91
2.1 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.2
#.9 #.5 #.5 #.1 -#.1 -#.4 -1.# -1.6
2-91
2.# 2.# 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.2
#.8 #.5 #.5 #.2 #.# -#.5 -#.7 -1.1
5-91
2.0 2.# 1.8 i:6 1.4 1.2 1.# #.9 #.6 #.5 #.4 #.5 #.# -#.2 -#.5

Billions of Dollars
Annual Ratas
5-9# 4-9# 1-91 2-91
4,465.9
4,517.8
4,565.6
4,655.#
4,667.1
4,71#.5
4,758.7
4,789.#
4,815.9
4,851.6
4,847.9
4,869.5
4,89#.2
4,9#1.2
4,9#9.2
-2.5
4,877.7
-2.7 -2.8
4,845.7
-1.7 -1.2 #.5
4,847.8
-#.8 -0.1 1.2 2.#
4,872.5

4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 1-9# 2-9# 5-9# 4-9^ 1-91 2-91
Data hava b«tn rtvittd historically.




P r a p a ra d b y F a d a r a l R a s a rv a Ban k o f S t .
B a c a a b a r 4 , 1991

13

L o u is

I m

p lic it

P r ic e

D

e f la t o r

P«rc*nt Chong« From Previous Y«or
S*o«or>oMy Adjusted
P«rc«nt

P«fe#nt

1 98 5

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

Prepored by Federal Reserve Bank of S t Louis

I m

p

l i c i t

P r i c e

D

e f la t o r

( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te « o f C h a n g e )

Twtintl
Q u a rte r

1-87
2-87
3-87
4-87
1-88
2-88
3-88
4-88
1-89
2-89
3-89
4-89
1-9#
2-9#
3-9#
4-9#
1-91
2-91
3-91

Initial Qmrttr
1987 * 1 H
4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-98 2-98 3-98 4-98 1-91 2-91
3.3
98.8
99.5
3.1 2.9
3.1 3.1 3.3
188.3
3.3 3.3 3.4 3.6
181.2
3.3 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.6
182.1
3.5 3.5 3.7 3.9 «•* 4.4
183.2
3.7 3.8 4.8 4.2 4.4 4.8 5 1
184.5
3.8 3.8 4.8 4.1 4.2 4.5 4 5 3 9
185.5
3.9 4.8 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.7 4 8 4 6 5 4
186.9
4.6 4.8 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.6 4 7 4 5 4 8 4.2
188.8
3.9 4.8 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4 4 4 2 4 3 3.8 3 4
188.9
189.9
3.9 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.3 4 3 4 1 4 2 3.8 3 5 3.7
111.1
3.9 4.8 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4 3 4 2 4 2 3.9 3
4.1 4.4
112.3
4.8 4.8 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.3 4 3 4 2 4 3 4.8
4.2 4.4 4.4
4.2
4.3
4.4 4
4 3 4 3 4.1
113.6
4.» 4.1 4.2
4.3 4.5 4.6 4.7
4 1 4 2 4.8
114.5
4.8 4.8 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4
4.1 4.2 4.1 4.8 3.2
4 2 4 3 4.1
115.9
4.8 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4
4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.1 5.8
116.8
4 1 4 2 4.8
4.1 4.1 4.1 4.8 3.8 4.1 3.1
4.8 4.8 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4
117.4
4 8 4 • 3.8
3.8 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.3 3.4 2.6 2.1
3.9 3.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.1 4
4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-98 2-98 3-98 4-98 1-91 2-91

Th* deflator is for CMP. Bata hava baan ravisad historically.




P r a p a r a d b y F a d a r a l Ra s a r v a la n k o f S t .
B a c a a b a r 4 , 1991

14

to u ts

F i n

a l

S a le s

i n

1 9 8 7

D

o lla r s

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )

Terainal
Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
Quarter
Annual Rat^s
*-¿6 1-67 2-67 3-67 4-67 1-66 2-66 3-66 4-66 1-69 2-69 3-69 4-69 1-96 2-9« 3-96 4-9« 1-91 2-91
1-67 -«.9
4,437.F
4,497.9
2-67
2.3 5.6
4,553.9
3-67
3.2 5.3 5.1
4-67
4,565.6
2.7 3.9 3.« 1.0
4,636.2
1-66
3.4 4.5 4.1 3.6 6.3
Z -M
4,666.7
3.6 4.5 4.2 4.« 5.5 4.6
4,710.9
5-M
3.3 4.1 3.6 3.4 4.3 3.2 1.9
4,756.7
4-66
3.4 4.1 3.6 3.6 4.2 3.5 3.« 4.1
1-69
4,766.5
3.1 3.7 3.4 3.1 3.5 2.9 2.3 2.5 6.6
4,793.5
2-69
3.« 3.5 3.2 3.« 3.3 2.7 2.2 2.3 1.5 2.1
4,625.4
3-69
3.« 3.4 3.2 2.9 3.2 2.7 2.3 2.4 1.9 2.4 2.7
4,629.7
4-69
6.4
3.1 2.9 2.6 2.9 2.4 2.« 2.« 1.5 1.7 1.5
2 .6
4,664.6
1-9«
2.9 3.3 3.6 2.6 3.« 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.5 4.6
4,676.1
2-9«
2.7 3.« 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.3 2.« 2.« 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 2.6 -6.5
4,669.4
2.6 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.7 6.2 6.9
3-9«
4,666.3
2.4 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.2 6.6 6.3 -0.3
4-9«
4,656.6
1-91
2.1 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.2 6.9 6.9 6.6 6.4 6.4 -6.6 -6.6 -1.3 -2.4
4,671.2
2-91
2.« 2.2 2.« 1.6 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.2 6.9 1.6 6.6 6.5 6.6 -6.2 -6.1 -6.5 -«.6 1.2
4,660.6
3-91
1.9 2.« 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.1 1 .« 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.4 6.4 -1.3 -6.3 -6.6 -«.7 «.2 -«.9
4-66 1-67 2-67 3-67 4-67 1-66 2-66 S-66 4-66 1-69 2-69 3-69 4-69 1-96 2-96 3-96 4-9« 1-91 2-91

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Deeeaber 4, 1991

P e r s o n a l

C o n s u m

p t io n

E x p e n d it u r e s

i n

1 9 8 7

D

o

l l a r s

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )

Terainal
Initial Quarter
Billions of Dollars
Quarter
Annual Rates
4-66 1-67 2-67 3-67 4-67 1-66 2-66 3-66 4-66 1-69 2-69 3-69 4-69 1-96 2-96 3-9« 4-9« 1-91 2-91
1-67 -«.1
3,611.5
2-67
4.6
3,646.6
3-67
2.6 4.3 3.9
3,675.6
4-67
2.1 2.6 1.6 -«.1
3,674.7
1-66
3.1 3.9 3.6 3.4 7.1
3,126.2
3.« 3.6 3.3 3.1 4.6 2.5
2-66
3,147.6
3-66
3.« 3.5 3.2 3.1 4.2 2.7 2.9
3,176.6
4-66
3.1 3.6 3.4 3.3 4.2 3.2 3.5 4.1
3,262.9
1-69
2.7 3.1 2.9 2.7 3.3 2.3 2.3 1.9 -«.2
3,266.9
2-69
2.6 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.9 2.1 1.9 1.6 «.4 1.«
3,266.6
2.7 3.« 2.6 2.7 3.1 2.4 2.4
3-69
1.6 2.5 4.1
3,241.1
4-69
2.5 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.1 2.« 1.6 1.2 1.7 2.1 «.1
3,241.6
1-9«
2.4 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.6 2.1 2.« 1.6 1.4 1.6 2.1 1.1 2.1
3,256.6
2-9«
2.3 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.4 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.6 «.7 1.1 6.6
3,2S6.6
3-9«
2.3 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.4 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.2 1.6 1.4 2.6
3,261.2
4-9«
1.9 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.4 1.3 1.1 «.6 «.9 «.9 «.3 6.3 -6.3 -6.4 -3.5
3,251.6
1-91
1.7 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.1 «.9 «.5 «.6 «.6 «.« 6.6 -6.5 -6.7 -2.4 -1.3
3,241.1
2-91
1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.1 «.9 «.6 «.7 «.7 6.2 6.2 -6.2 -6.2 -1.2 6.6 1.4
3,2S2.4
3-91
1.7 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.3 1.2 1.« «.6 «.9 «.9 6.5 6.5 6.2 6.3 -6.3 6.6 1.6 2.3
3,276.6
4-66 1-67 2-67 3-67 4-67 1-66 2-66 3-66 4-66 1-69 2-69 3-69 4-69 1-96 2-96 3-9« 4-96 1-91 2-91
B a t a b a v a b e e n r e v is e d h i s t o r i c a l ly *




P re p a re d b y F e d e r a l R e s e rv e B an k o f S t .
B e o e o b e r 4 , 1991

15

L o u is

R

e s i d e n t i a l

F ix e d

I n v e s t m

e n t

i n

1 9 8 7

D

o

l l a r s

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )

Terainel
Quarter
4-66
1-67 -6*1
2-67 -2*4
3-67 -3*6
4-67 -3*1
1-66 -3*7
2-66 -2*5
3-66 -1*7
4-66 -1*1
1-69 -1*7
2-69 -2*7
3-69 -3*0
4-69 -3*4
1-96 -3*1
2-9# -4*0
3-96 -4*9
4-90 -5*6
1-91 -6*6
2-91 -6*3
3-91 -5*4

Initial Quarter
Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-67 2-67 5-67 4-67 1-66 2-66 5-66 4-66 1-69 2-69 5-69 4-69 1-90 2-90 5-90 4-90 1-91 2-91
225*7
5*6
227*7
-1*2 -5*6
224*5
-1*4 -5*6 -1*6
225*5
-2*5 -4*5 -5*6 -5*6
220*0
-1*5 -2*5 -1*4 -1*2 5*7
222*0
-0*7 -1*5 -0*4 0*1 5*2 2*7
225*5
-0*1 -0*7 0*4 0*9 5*2 5*0 5*5
225*5
-0*6 -1*5 -0*7 -0*5 0*9 -0*1 -1*4 -5*9
221*9
-2*1 -2*6 -2*4 -2*5 -1*6 -5*2 -5*0 -6*9 -11*9
215*0
-2*5 -5*1 -2*6 -2*9 -2*5 -5*7 -5*2 -7*9 -6*6 -5*6
211*9
-2*9 -5*6 -5*5 -5*5 -5*2 -4*5 -5*6 -7*7 -6*5 -6*5 -7*5
207*9
-2*7 -5*2 -2*9 -5*1 -2*7 -5*6 -4*6 -6*1 -6*2 -4*2 -5*5 0*6
206*2
-5*7 -4*5 -4*2 -4*4 -4*5 -5*2 -6*5 -7*6 -6*2 -7*2 -7*7 -7*9 -15*7
199*5
-4*7 -5*5 -5*2 -5*5 -5*5 -6*5 -7*6 -9*0 -9*5 -9*1 -9*9 -10*6 -15*9 -16*2
190*9
-5*4 -6*0 -6*0 -6*4 -6*4 -7*4 -6*4 -9*6 -10*5 -10*1 -11*0 -11*6 -15*6 -15*6 -15*0
163*3
-6*7 -7*4 -7*5 -7*9 -6*1 -9*1 -10*2 -11*6 -12*5 -12*4 -15*4 -14*6 -16*0 -16*6 -20*0 -24*6
170*7
172*0
-6*2 -6*6 -6*6 -7*2 -7*5 -6*2 -9*1 -10*2 -10*7 -10*6 -11*2 -11*9 -14*2 -15*6 -15*0 -11*9 5*1
-5*5 -5*6 -5*6 -6*0 -6*0 -6*7 -7*5 -6*4 -6*7 -6*5 -6*6 -6*6 -10*5 -9*2 -7*5 -4*6 7*4 11*9
176*9

4-66 1-67 2-67 5-67 4-67 1-66 2-66 5-66 4-66 1-69 2-69 5-69 4-69 1-90 2-90 5-90 4-90 1-91 2-91

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St* Louis
Deeeaber 4, 1991

N

o n r e s id e n t ! a l

F ix e d

I n v e s t m

e n t

i n

1 9 8 7

D

o lla r s

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )

Terainal
Initial Quarter
Quarter
4-66 1-67 2-67 5-67 4-67 1-66 2-66 5-66 4-66 1-69 2-69
1-67 -11*1
2-67 -1*9 6*2
3-67
3*5 11*6 15*4
5*0 6*5 6*5 1*6
4-67
5*6 7*6 7*4 5*6 5*7
1-66
4*6 6*5 6*5 6*0 6*5 11*0
2-66
4*5 7*4 7*2 5*2 6*5 6*9 2*9
3-66
4*5 6*7 6*4 4*7 5*5 5*5 2*6 2*7
4-66
5*9 5*9 5*6 4*1 4*6 4*5 2*2 1*6 0*9
1-69
5*6 5*6 5*5 5*9 4*5 4*0 2*5 2*1 1*6 2*7
2-69
5*5 5*1 4*7 5*5 5*6 5*4 2*0 1*6 1*5 1*7 0*6
3-69
5*0 4*4 4*0 2*6 5*0 2*6 1*2 0*9 0*5 0*5 -0*6
4-69
5*5 4*6 4*5 5*2 5*4 5*1 2*1 1*9 1*6 2*0 1*7
1-90
2*7 5*9 5*5 2*5 2*6 2*5 1*2 1*0 0*7 0*6 0*1
2-90
3-90
5*1 4*2 5*9 5*0 5*1 2*9 2*0 1*9 1*6 1*9 1*7
2*4 5*4 5*0 2*1 2*2 1*9 1*0 0*6 0*5 0*5 0*1
4-90
1-91
1*1 1*9 1*5 0*6 0*5 0*1 -0*6 -1*2 -1*6 -2*0 -2*6
2-91
0*9 1*6 1*2 0*5 0*2 -0*2 -1*1
-1*6 -2*1 -2*7
3-91
0*6 1*5 0*9 0*1 0*0 -0*4 -1*2
-2*0 -2*2 -2*6

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
5-69 4-69 1-90 2-90 5-90 4-90 1-91 2-91
461*1
490*7
506*6
510*6
517*7
551*4
555*2
556*6
540*0
545*6
544*7
-2*5
541*5
550*7
2*2 7*1
-0*1 1*1 -4*6
544*5
2*0 5*5 1*6 6*5
555*5
544*5
0*0
0*6 -1*5 0*1 -7*7
519*1
-5*2 -5*5 -5*7 -6*1 -12*7 -17*4
514*6
-5*2 -5*5 -5*5 -5*4 -9*6 -10*6 -5*5
510*2
-5*2 -5*5 -5*0 -5*0 -6*2 -6*5 -5*4 -5*5

4-66 1-67 2-67 5-67 4-67 1-66 2-66 5-66 4-66 1-69 2-69 5-69 4-69 1-90 2-90 5-90 4-90 1-91 2-91
D a ta h a v e b e e n r e v is e d




h i s t o r i c a l ly *
P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Ban k o f S t *
D e o e a b e r 4 , 1991

16

L o u is

E x p o r t s

i n

1 9 8 7

D

o lla r s

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )

Terainal
Quarter
4-66
1-67 -•.9
2-67
6.1
3-67 11.3
4-67 12.6
1-66 14.7
2-66 14.»
3-66 12.9
4-66 13.6
1-69 13.6
2-69 13.4
3-69 12.2
4-69 12.3
1-96 12.6
2-9# 11.5
3-96 16.7
4-96 11.1
1-91
9.9
2-91 16.4
3-91 It.2

Billions of Dollart
Initial Quarter
Annual Rat«
1-67 2-67 3-67 4-67 1-66 2-66 3-66 4-66 1-69 2-69 3-69 4-69 l-9t 2-9« 3-9« 4-9« 1-91 2-91
342.1
356.5
17.9
371.5
17.9 17.9
366.1
17.5 17.3 16.7
4«7.1
19.6 19.4 26.1 23.6
417.2
17.2 17.• 16.7 16.6 It.3
424.1
15.4 14.9 14.2 13.3 6.5 6.6
436.2
15.2 14.7 14.1 13.5 11.3 It.3 14.t
451.2
14.6 14.4 13.6 13.3 lt.6 11.t 13.2 12.4
469.5
15.1 14.6 14.3 13.9 12.1 12.5 14.5 14.6 17.2
47«.5
13.6 13.1 12.5 12.6 lt.l lt.l It.9 9.9 6.7 6.9
465.6
13.6 13.2 12.7 12.2 lt.6 It.7 11.5 It.9 11.4 7.1 13.7
496.2
13.2 12.6 12.3 11.6 It.4 It.4 11.t lt.5 lt.t 7.7 11.2 6.6
562.1
12.5 12.1 11.6 11.1 9.6 9.7 lt.l 9.5 6.9 6.9 9.1 6.6 4.6
5«1.6
11.6 11.1 16.5 16.6 6.7 6.5 6.6 6»t 7.3 5.4 6.6 4.4 2.2 -t.4
522.5
12*6 11.5 11.1 16.6 9.5 9.4 9.7 9.2 6.7 7.4 6.7 7.6 7.1 6.3 17.7
512.5
16.6 16.2 9.6 9.1 6.1 7.6 7.9 7.2 6.6 5.1 5.9 4.4 3.3 2.6 4.4 -7.4
535.7
11.1 16.7 16.3 9.6 6.6 6.7 6.9 6.4 7.9 6.6 7.7 6.7 6.3 6.7 9.2 5.1 19.4
544.1
It.9 16.5 1 1 .« 9.6 6.6 6.5 6.7 6.2 7.6 6.6 7.5 6.7 6.3 6.6 6.5 5.5 12.7 6.4

4-66 1-67 2-67 3-67 4-67 1-66 2-66 3-66 4-66 1-69 2-69 3-69 4-69 l-9t 2-9« 3-9« 4-9« 1-91 2-91

Prepared by Federal
Deoeaber 4, 1991

I m

p o r t s

i n

1 9 8 7

D

R e se rve

Bank of St. Louis

o lla r s

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )

Terainal
Initial Quarter
Quarter
4-66 1-67 2-67 3-67 4-67 1-66 2-66 3-66 4-66 1-69 2-69
1-67 -5.3
2-67
1.5 6.9
3-67
3.3 6.« 7.«
4.7 6.2 7.9 6.7
4-67
3.4 5.6 4.7 3.6 -1.2
1-66
2-66
2.2 3.7 2.5 1.« -2.6 -4.«
3-66
3.1 4.6 3.7 2.9 1 .« 2.2 6.7
4-66
4.1 5.6 5.« 4.6 3.6 5.3 1«.2 11.7
1-69
2.9 4.« 3.3 2.7 1.6 2.3 4.5 2.4 -6.1
2-69
3.3 4.3 3.6 3.3 2.4 3.2 5.1 3.9 « .1 6.9
3-69
3.6 4.6 4.1 3.7 3.1 3.6 5.4 4.6 2.3 6.6 6.6
4-69
3.7 4.5 4.1 3.6 3.2 3.6 5.2 4.5 2.7 5.9 5.4
1-9«
3.2 3.9 3.5 3.1 2.5 3.« 4.« 3.3 1.7 3.7 2.7
2-9«
3.1 3.7 3.3 3.« 2.4 2.9 3.7 3.« 1.7 3.3 2.4
3-9«
3.5 4.2 3.6 3.5 3.1 3.5 4.4 3.9 2.6 4.3 3.6
4-9«
2.6 3.2 2.6 2.5 2 .« 2.3 2.9 2.3 1.2 2.3 1.5
1-91
1.5 1.9 1.5 1.1 «.5 «.7 1.1 «.4 -«.6 -«.1 -1.1
2-91
2.1 2.6 2.2 1.9 1.4 1.6 2.1 1.5 «.5 1.3 «.6'
3-91
3.1 3.6 3.3 3.« 2.7 3.« 3.5 3.1 2.3 3.2 2.6

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
3-69 4-69 1-9« 2-9« 3-9« 4-9« 1-91 2-91
492.1
562.7
511.3
522.1
526.5
515.2
526.1
546.9
532.4
541.3
556.3
4.«
555.7
«.7 -2.5
552.2
1 .«
- 554.5
-«.4 1.7
3.1 2.6 5.6 9.6
567.4
«.5 -«.4 «.4 -«.3 -9.3
553.7
-2.3 -3.6 -3.6 -5.6 -12.4 -15.4
531.1
-«.2 -«.9 -«.6 -1.2 -4.5 -2.« 13.3
546.6
2.3 2.1 2.9 3.1 1.6 5.5 17.6 22.4
576.4

4-66 1-67 2-67 3-67 4-67 1-66 2-66 3-66 4-66 1-69 2-69 3-69 4-69 1-9« 2-9« 3-9« 4-9« 1-91 2-91
B a t a h a v a b e e n r e v is e d h i s t o r i c a l l y .




C 8 P B a s is
P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t .
B e o e a b e r 4 , 1991

17

L o u is

G o v e r n m

e n t

P u r c h a s e s

o f

G o o d s

a n d

S e r v ic e s

i n

1 9 8 7

D

o lla r s

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )

Terainal
Quarter
1-67
*-•7
3-67
4-67
1-66
2-66
3-66
4-66
1-69
2-69
3-69
4-69
1-9#
2-96
3-9#
4-9#
1-91
2-91
3-91

Initial Quarter
Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
4-66 1-67 2-67 3-67 4-67 1-66 2-66 3-66 4-66 1-69 2-69 3-69 4-69 1-9# 2-9# 3-9# 4-9# 1-91 2-91
2.#
669.1
3*3 4.6
679.#
3,1 3.7 2.7
664.9
3.3 3.7 3.2 3.7
693.#
663.7
1.7 1.7 #.7 -#.3 -4.1
1*6 l.S #.6 #.1 -1.7 #.9
665.6
663.7
1.7
694.5
1.7 1.7 1.2 #.9 #.2 1.6 2.# 5.#
666.9
1.1 1.# #.5 #.2 -#.5 #.4 #.2 #.7 -3.4
696.3
l.S 1.5 1.1 #.9 #.4 1.3 1.4 2.2 #.9 5.2
9#7.4
1.6 1.7 1.4 1.3 #.9 1.6 2.# 2.7 1.9 4.7 4.1
9#6.9
1.7 1.6 1.3 1.2 #.9 1.6 1.7 2.3 1.6 3.3 2.4 #.7
923.#
2.# 2.# 1.6 1.7 1.5 2.2 2.4 2.9 2.5 4.1 3.7 3.5 6.4
926.1
2.# 2.# 1.6 1.7 1.6 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.5 3.7 3.3 3.1 4.3 2.2
927.5
1.9 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.4 2.# 2.1 2.4 2.1 3.# 2.6 2.2 2.7 1.# -#.3
937.9
2.# 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.3 2.7 2.4 3.2 2.9 2.7 3.2 2.2 2.1 4.6
944.5
2.1 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.7 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.4 3.2 2.9 2.7 3.1 2.3 2.4 3.7 2.6
944.3
2.# 2.# 1.6 1.7 1.6 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.2 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.6 1.6 1.7 2.4 1.4 -#.1
935.2
1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.6 2.1 1.6 1.5 1.6 #.9 #.6 #.6 -#.4 -2.# -3.6
4-66 1-67 2-67 3-67 4-67 1-66 2-66 3-66 4-66 1-69 2-69 3-69 4-69 1-9# 2-9# 3-9# 4-9# 1-91 2-91

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
4, 1991

Ptoeatotr

C o r p o r a t e

P

r o

f i t s

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )

Terainal
Quarter
4-66
1-67 3#.l
2-67 42.3
3-67 36.6
4-67 29.7
1-66 25.7
2-66 23.7
3-66 2#.2
4-66 19.6
1-69 15.5
2-69 13.2
3-69 l#.l
4-69
6.1
1-9#
6.#
7.4
2-9#
3.4
3-9#
2.9
4-9#
3.2
1-91
3.1
2-91
3-91
3.#

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
1-67 2-67 3-67 4-67 1-66 2-66 3-66 4-66 1-69 2-69 3-69 4-69 1-9# 2-9# 3-9# 4-9# 1-91 2-91
262.6
55.5
315.6
43.1 31.6
336.#
29.6 16.3 6.4
343.3
24.6 15.7 6.5 1#.7
352.1
22.5 15.4 1#.5 12.5 14.5
364.2
16.7 12.4 6.1 6.6 7.6 1.2
365.3
16.1 12.6 9.4 1#.2 1#.# 7.9 15.#
376.3
13.6 6.9 5.5 5.3 4.# #.7 #.5 -12.2
366.2
11.5 7.# 3.6 3.4 2.# -#.9 -1.6 -6.9 -5.6
361.#
6.3 4.# 1.# #.3 -1.3 -4.2 -5.6 -11.6 -11.2 -16.6
345.#
6.3 2.4 -#.4 -1.3 -2.9 -5.5 -6.6 -11.5 -11.3 -14.# -11.4
334.7
6.4 2.6 #.3 -#.4 -1.7 -3.6 -4.6 -6.1 -7.1 -7.6 -2.6 6.7
34#.2
5.6 2.5 #.2 -#.4 -1.6 -3.4 -4.1 -6.9 -5.6 -5.9 -2.# 3.1 -#.5
339.6
1.7 -1.6 -3.9 -4.6 -6.2 -6.3 -9.4 -12.4 -12.5 -13.6 -13.1 -13.7 -22.3 -39.4
299.6
1.3 -1.6 -4.# -4.6 -6.1 -7.9 -6.9 -11.5 -11.4 -12.4 -11.5 -11.5 -16.9 -24.1 -4.6
296.1
1.7 -1.2 -3.2 -3.9 -5.# -6.6 -7.3 -9.5 -9.2 -9.7 -6.5 -7.9 -11.2 -14.5 1.5 6.4
3#2.1
3#3.5
1.7 -1.# -2.6 -3.5 -4.5 -5.9 -6.5 -6.4 -6.# -6.3 -7.1 -6.3 -6.7 -1#.7 1.6 5.1 1.9
1.6 -#.9 -2.6 -3.2 -4.1 -5.4 -5.9 -7.7 -7.2 -7.4 -6.1 -5.4 -7.2 -6.5 1.4 3.5 1.2 #.5
3#3.9

4-66 1-67 2-67 3-67 4-67 1-66 2-66 3-66 4-66 1-69 2-69 3-69 4-69 1-9# 2-9# 3-9# 4-9# 1-91 2-91
Corporate profits with capital oonsuaption and inventory valuetion adjustments* Beta have been revised historically*
Prepared by Federal Raearva tank of St« Louis
tiowbir 4, 1991



18

G r o s s

S a v in g

a s

a

P e r c e n t

o f

G N P

Seosonaly Adjusted
Percent

Percent

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

Total saving squats private saving (personal saving plus business saving) plus government surplus or deficit
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of S t Louis

G r o s s

P r i v a t e

S a v in g

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
Terainal
Annual Rates
Quarter
4-66 1-67 2-67 3-67 4-67 1-66 2-66 3-66 4-66 1-69 2-69 3-69 4-69 1-9# 2-9# 3-9# 4-9# 1-91 2-91
676*#
1-67 25*#
611*6
2-67 -9*# -55*7
645*5
3-67
•*9 -9*4 23*9
715*2
4-67 11*5 7*4 36*7 5#*7
736*5
1-66 12*# 6*9 26*5 3#*9 13*7
742*4
2-66 1#*5 7*5 21*3 2#*5 7*6 2*1
756*#
5-66 1#*# 7*7 16*7 17*4 6*1 5*4 6*7
766*4
4-66
9*5 7*5 16*2 14*7 7*2 5*1 6*6 4*5
764*4
1-69
9*4 7*6 15*3 13*9 7*7 6*2 7*6 7*1 9*7
776*3
2-69
7*6 5*6 12*2 1#*6 5*1 3*4 3*6 2*2 1*# -7*#
776*#
5-69
7*2 5*5 11*1 9*6 4*6 3*4 3*6 2*4 1*7 -2*1 3*#
766*4
4-69
7*# 5*5 1#*6 9*2 4*9 3*7 3*9 3*# 2*6 #*3 4*2 5*5
795.#
1-96
6*6 5*4 1#*# 6*7 4*6 3*6 4*# 3*2 3*# 1*4 4*3 5*# 4*4
666*7
2-9#
6*6 5*5 9*7 6*4 4*9 4*# 4*2 3*6 3*5 2*3 4*7 5*3 5*2 6*#
772*2
5-9#
5*1 5*6 7*4 6*2 2*6 1*6 1*6 •*9 •*4 -1*# #*2 -•*5 -2*4 -5*7 -16*#
2*9
777*6
•
*6
•
*2
4-9#
4*9 5*7 7*1 5*9 2*6 1*9 1*9 1*2 •*7 -•*5
-1*1 -2*9 -7*#
5*7
6*5
793*9
1*5
6*6
1-91
-•*1 -2*1
5*2 4*# 7*2 6*1 3*3 2*4 2*5 1*9 1*6 #*6 1*7
4*#
4*5
1*4
#*6
795*1
-1*4
1*6
•
*7
#*•
2-91
4*9 3*6 6*6 5*7 3*1 2*3 2*3 1*6 1*5 •*6
3*#
#*3
#*#
795*1
1*4
1*2
3*#
t*6
#*•
-1*2
5-91
4*6 5*6 6*4 5*3 2*9 2*1 2*1 1*6 1*3 •*5
4-66 1-67 2-67 3-67 4-67 1-66 2-66 3-66 4-66 1-69 2-69 3-69 4-69 1-9# 2-9# 3-9# 4-9# 1-91 2-91
la t a

h a v a b e e n r e v is e d h i s t o r i c a l ly *




P r e p a re d b y F e d e r a l R e s e rv e Ban k o f S t *
l io e a b T 4 , 1991

19

L o u is

B u s in e s s

P r o d u c t iv it y

a n d

C o m

p e n s a t io n

Percent Change From Previous Year
Seoeonoiy Adjusted
Percent

Percent

1 985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of S t Louis

B u s in e s s

S e c t o r

O u t p u t

p e r

H o u r

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )

Terainal
Initial Quarter
Quarter
4-66 1-67 2-67 3-67 4-67 1-66 2-66 3-66 4-66 1-69 2-69
1-67
•4
2-67
1 7 3.6
5-67
2 1 2*9 2*9
4-67
2.9 2*9 2*9
2 3
1-66
2 6 3*4 3*5 3*6 4*7
2-66
2 1 2*5 2*4 2*2 1*6 -1*1
3-66
2 2 2*5 2*4 2*3 2*t t*7 2*5
4-66
1 7 1*9 1*7 1*4 1*1 -t.l t*4 -1*7
1-69
1 4 1*6 1*4 1*1 t*6 -t*2 t*l -1*1 -t*4
2-69
1 3 1*4 1*3 l*t t*7 -t*l t*2 -6.6 •** •*4
3-69
1 1 1*2 1.6 t*6 t*5 -t*2 -t*l -t*7 -t*4 -•*4 -1*1
4-69
* 6 t*9 t*7 t*4 t*l -t*5 -t*4 -l*t -t*6 -t*9 -1*6
1-9*
• 7 t*6 t*6 t*3 t*t -t*5 -t*5 -t*9 -t.6 -t*9 -1*3
2-9*
• 6 t*6 t»6 t*4 t*2 -t*3 -t*2 -t*6 -t*4 -t*4 -t*6
3-9*
• 6 t*6 t*7 t*5 t*3 -t*2 -t*l -t*4 -t*2 -t*2 -t*3
4-9*
t 7 t*7 t*S t*3 t*l -t*3 -t*2 -t*5 -t*4 -t.4 -t*5
1-91
t 6 t*6 t*5 t*3 t*l -t*3 -t*2 -t.5 -t*3 -t*3 -t*4
2-91
t 6 t*6 t*4 t*3 t*l -t*3 -t*2 -t*4 -t.3 -t*3 -t*4
3-91
t 6 t*7 t.5 t*4 t*2 -t*l t*t -t*2 -*.1 -t.l -t.l

19*2 - It*
3-69 4-69 1-96 2-9« 3-96 4-96 1-91 2-91
169.5
116.3
111.1
111.9
113.2
112.9

-2*1
-1*4
-t*5
-t.l
-t.4
-t.3
-t.3
t.t

t.4
t.6
t.l
t*l
t*t
t.3

1*4
1*3 1.1
t*4 -«.2 -1*4
t.3 -«.1 -6*7 6*6
t.l -«.2 -6*6 -6*2 -6*4
t.5 6.3 6.1 6*6 6.9

2.2

113.6
113.1
113.6
113*1
112*6
112*2
112*6
112.4
112.7
112*3
112.3
112*2
112*6

4-66 1-67 2-67 3-67 4-67 1-66 2-66 3-66 4-66 1-69 2-69 3-69 4-69 l-9t 2-96 3-96 4-96 1-91 2-91




P re p a re d b y F e d e r a l R e s e rv e San k o f S t*
Se p te m b e r 5 , 1991

20

L o u is

N e t

F e d e r a l

D e b t

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )

Terminal
Initial Quarter
Quarter
5-66 4-66 1-67 2-67 5-67 4-67 1-66 2-66 5-66 4-66 1-69 2-69
4-66 12.5
1-67
9.7 7.1
2-67
9.6 6.6 1#.2
5-67
6.6 7.5 7.$ 5.2
4-67
6.7 7.9 6.1 7.1 9.1
1-66
6.6 6.2 6.4 7.9 9.5 9 4
2-66
6.5 7.9 6.1 7.6 6.4 6 1 6.6
5-66
6.5 6.# 6.1 7.7 6.4 6 1 7.5 6.5
4-66
6.1 7.6 7.7 7.5 7.7 7 5 6.6 6.6 4 9
1-69
6.# 7.5 7.6 7.2 7.6 7 5 6.7 6.7 6 • 7.1
2-69
7.6 7.5 7.5 7.# 7.5 7 # 6.5 6.4 5 6 6.2 5.4
5-69
7.6 7.4 7.4 7.1 7.5 7 1 6.7 6.7 6 5 6.6 6.6 7.6
4-69
7.6 7.4 7.5 7.2 7.4 7 2 6.9 7.# 6 7 7.2 7.2 6.1
1-96
6.5 6.# 6.1 7.9 6.2 6 1 7.9 6.1 6 # 6.7 9.1 1#.5
2-9#
6.5 6.2 6.5 6.2 6.5 6 4 6.5 6.5 6 5 9.1 9.5 1#*6
5-9#
6.6 6.5 6.6 6.5 6.6 6 6 6.7 6.9 9 # 9.6 1#.# 11.#
4-9#
9.# 6.6 6.9 6.6 9.1 9 1 9.1 9.5 9 4 1«.# 1#.5 11.5
1-91
9.# 6.6 6.9 6.9 9.1 9 1 9.1 9.5 9 4 9.9 1#.5 11.#
2-91
9.1 9.# 9.1 9.# 9.5 9 5 9.5 9.5 9 6 l#.l 1#.4 11.1

5-69 4-69 1-9# 2-9# 5-9# 4-9# 1-91

Billions of
Dollars
1,6#2.7
1,655.6
1,676.7

6.4
11.6
11.5
11.6
12.#
11.6
11.5

14.9
15.1
12.9
15.#
12.2
12.1

1,9#2.6
1,944.4
1,966.7
2,#21.5
2,662.#
2,#66.9
2,122.6
2,15#.7
2,191.7
2,256.5
2,515.4
2,576.5
11.5
2,449.6
11.9 12.6
2,526.4
12.5 12.6 15.1
2,562.9
11.6 11.6 11.2 9.5
2,655.5
11.5 11.6 11.2 1#.5 11.4

5-66 4-66 1-67 2-67 5-67 4-67 1-66 2-66 5-66 4-66 1-69 2-69 5-69 4-69 1-9# 2-9# 5-9# 4-9# 1-91

Prepared by Federal Reserve lank of St. Louis
October 21, 1991

FED ER A L G O VERN M EN T D EBT
( b illio n s o f d o lla r s )
S e a s o n a lly A d ju s t e d E n d o f M o n t h T o t a ls

Grass
federal debt

Federal debt held
bv m a rt fit
and trusts

Net
federal debt

Federal debt held
by Federal
Reserve Banks

Federal debt beld
by private
investors

Federal defat I
by foreign
investors

1987 March
June
September
December

2248.9
2311.6
2362.1
2417.2

414.5
432.9
469.0
473.4

1833.8
1878.7
1902.6
1944.4

199.4
211.7
214.5
217.4

1628.4
1668.1
1690.8
1726.2

271.7
278.0
282.3
301.5

1988 March
June
September
December

2487.6
2550.3
2615.3
2671.0

499.3
627.9
552.1
585.1

1998.7
2021.5
2062.0
2086.9

221.3
226.2
232.5
232.4

1763.7
1797.5
1832.2
1854.8

330.5
342.0
350.5
363.3

1989 March
June
September
December

2740.9
2802.7
2871.8
2938.3

618.0
650.0
678.1
703.6

2122.8
2150.7
2191.7
2236.3

232.8
230.2
224.2
222.4

1886.4
1920.6
1970.1
2011.8

373.6
366.2
400.9
392.9

1990 March
June
September
December

3049.0
3146.9
3249.5
3351.4

735.2
765.1
797.4
823.4

2315.4
2378.3
2449.8
2526.4

223.8
229.6
236.3
252.7

2094.2
2154.7
2220.6
2283.7

382.6
390.1
411.5
422.7

1991 March
June

3461.7
3541.5

881.8
883.6

2582.9
2653.5

252.3
252.8

2337.2
2412.4

426.5
439.4

C o lu m n s m ay not a d d b e c a u s e e a c h co m p on en t is s e a so n a lly a djusted separately. G ro s s fed eral debt e q u a ls d e b t h eld by a g e n c ie s a n d trusts p lu s net fed eral d e b t
Net federal deb t e q u a ls debt held by F e d e ra l R e se rv e b a n k s p lu s debt held by private Investors (w hich in c lu d e s d eb t h eld by fo reig n investors). S o u rc e s: O rig in a l
da ta m ay be found in the T re a s u ry B u to tn an d a ls o in the F e d e ra l R e se rv e B u M r r t s e a s o n a ty a dju sted s e rie s p re p a re d by th is B an k.




21

FEDERAL GO VERN M EN T B U D G E TS
(billion« of dollar*, quarterly totals seasonally adjusted at annual rata«)

Charters

Racdpts
Natta«*!
Ir c m m accaniti
W ^VI

ExpMNRtaw
uyciKwy
adjusted
btdftt

Sarpim ar é*fidt( - )
^-H--«*-■
ujdvcniy
adfrsted
budget

iicasN accsaate
bsdfst

uycM iif
N in n i
kaé|et

Nsüsasl
laça«* accaaats
tadfct

1984 1
2
3
4

$ 711.8
722.8
728.8
739.8

$ 744.7
747.9
754.4
771.0

$ 875.5
876.1
892.5
926.6

$ 859.8
880.4
895.6
925.3

$ -1 6 3 .7
-1 5 3 .2
-1 6 3 .7
-1 8 6 .8

-115.1
-1 3 2 .5
-1 4 1 .2
-1 5 4 .3

1986 1
2
3
4

797.8
768.6
794.3
803.6

819.3
780.7
811.8
822.0

947.7
964.9
976.3
990.8

953.0
964.4
991.3
1012.6

-1 4 9 .9
-2 0 6 .3
-1 8 2 .0
-1 8 7 .2

-1 3 3 .7
-1 8 3 .7
-1 7 9 .5
-1 9 0 .6

1986 1
2
3
4

809.4
814.2
828.2
866.8

816.4
832.2
852.1
875.5

992.7
1038.0
1047.9
1034.3

1001.4
1045.2
1032.4
1038.7

-1 8 3 .3
-2 2 3 .8
-2 1 9 .7
-1 7 7 .5

-1 8 5 .0
-2 1 3 .0
-1 8 0 .3
-1 6 3 .2

1987 1
2
3
4

868.4
928.6
924.6
943.6

875.1
938.1
927.2
930.0

1048.1
1058.9
1059.0
1096.3

1057.4
1060.4
1065.6
1103.0

-1 8 9 .7
-1 3 0 .3
-1 3 4 .5
-1 5 2 .7

-1 8 2 .3
-1 2 2 .3
-1 3 8 .4
-1 7 3 .0

1988 1
2
3
4

940.6
970.4
977.8
1000.6

924.9
949.5
953.0
971.4

1098.0
1105.0
1097.3
1135.5

1098.0
1111.4
1098.2
1156.1

-1 5 7 .5
-1 3 4 .6
-1 1 9 .5
-1 3 4 .9

-173.1
-1 6 1 .9
-1 4 5 .2
-1 8 4 .7

1989 1
2
3
4

1046.7
1061.8
1060.8
1062.7

1014.3
1032.2
1020.2
1035.4

1160.2
1172.3
1179.2
1206.0

1181.0
1187.3
1182.0
1208.2

-1 1 4 .5
-1 1 0 .5
-1 2 8 .4
-1 4 3 .3

-1 6 6 .7
-166.1
-1 6 1 .8
-1 7 2 .8

1990 1
2
3
4

1086.8
1106.3
1116.4
1110.7

1061.7
1093.4
1116.0
1132.1

1247.6
1263.2
1265.1
1304.4

1252.2
1275.4
1273.6
1311.2

-1 6 0 .8
-1 5 6 .9
-1 4 9 .7
-1 9 3 .6

-1 9 0 .5
-1 8 2 .0
-1 5 7 .6
-179.1

1991 1
2
3

1116.2
1114.3
1126.7

1160.1
1173.7
NA

1261.6
1321.0
1339.2

1257.9
1319.3
NA

-1 4 6 .4
-2 0 6 .7
-2 1 2 .6

- 97.8
-1 4 6 .6
NA

N.A. — Not Available

Fiscal years
Actual
1984
Titai M a tt
Receipts
Outlays
Surplus or deficit ( - )

IM S

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

$ 666.5 $ 734.1 $ 769.1 $ 854.1 $ 909.0 $ 990.7 $ 1031.3 $ 1053.8
851.8
946.3
990.3
1003.8
1064.1
1144.1
1322.6
1251.8
$-185.3 $ -212.3 $ -221.2 $-149.7 $-155.1 $-153.4 $ -220.5 $-268.7
Calendar years

NsOessI iacMM tc tm lt
M ftt
Receipts
Expendtures
Surplus or deficit-)
CvcSatv jdifftH M a tt
Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or deficit - )

$ 725.8 $ 788.6 $ 6 2 7 2 $ 913.8 $ 972.3 $ 1055.2 $ 1104.8
892.7
1028.2
1270.1
969.9
1065.6
1065.6
1179.4
$-166.9 $ -181.4 $ -201.0 $-151.8 $-151.8 $-124.2 $ -165.3
$ 754.5 $ 808.5 $ 844.1 $ 917.6 $ 949.7 $ 1025.5 $ 1100.8
1029.4
890.3
980.3
1071.6
1115.9
1189.6
1278.1
$-135.8 $ -171.9 $ -185.4 $-154.0 $-166.2 $-164.1 $ -177.3

Fiscal years refer to the budget year which runs from October 1 through September 30.
Total budget outlays include federal entities that are off-budget.
Cyclically adjusted budget data are based on a 6 percent rate of unemployment.
NIA data reflect Department of Commerce December 1991 revisions to the national income and product account.
Source: Office of Management and Budget and U.S. Department of Commerce.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis



22

G o v e r n m

e n t

D e f ic it ^

-

) / S u r p l u s ( + )

SeosonaUy Adjusted
BUBorts of DoHor*

raRon* of Odiara
-6 0

- 1 1 0

-1 6 0

- 2 1 0

-2 6 0
1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

Notional mcom« recounts bosis
Prepared by Federal Rsserv* Bank of S t Louis

F e d e r a l

D e f e n s e

E x p e n d it u r e s

( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te « o f C h a n g e )

Terainal
li11ions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
Quarter
Annual Rates
4-66 1-67 2-67 3-67 4-67 1-66 2-66 3-66 4-66 1-69 2-69 3-69 4-69 l-9t 2-9t 3-9t 4-9t 1-91 2-91
1-67
7.7
263.6
2-67
9.6 11.5
291.6
3-37
6.9 9.4 7.5
296.9
4-67
6.2 5.7 2.9 -1.5
295*6
1-**
5.2 4.5 2.3 -«.1 1.2
296.7
2-66
3.6 3.1 1.1 -t.9 -t.7 -2.5
294.6
5-M
3.1 2.4 t.7 -l.t -t.6 -1.6 -1.1
294.t
4-66
3.2 2.6 1.2 I . « t.3 t.t 1.4 3.9
296.6
1-69
2.4 1.6 •.4 -t.7 -t.5 -t.9 -t.4 -t.l -3.9
293.9
2-69
2.8 2.3 1.2 t.3 t.6 t.5 1.3 2.t 1.1 6.4
296.5
3-69
3.4 3.« 2.1 1.5 1.9 2.t 3.t 4.t 4.1 6.3 lt.l
3t5.6
4-69
2.7 2.2 1.4 t.7 l.t t.9 1.5 2.1 1.6 3.5 2.1 -5.4
3tl.6
1-9#
3.3 2.9 2.2 1.7 2.t 2.1 2.6 3.4 3.4 5.2 4.9 2.3 lt.6
3t9.3
2-9t
3.4 3.1 2.4 1.9 2.2 2.4 3.t 3.6 3.5 5.1 *** S.t 7.5 4.5
312.7
3-9t
3.9 2.7 2J 1.6 1.9 1.9 2.4 2.9 2.7 3.9 3.4 1*7 4.2 1.2 -2.t
311.1
4-9«
3.6 3.3 2.7 2.4 2.7 2.9 3.4 3.9 3.9 5.1 4.9 3.9 6.3 4.9 5.1 12.6
32t.6
1-91
4.2 4.« 3.5 3.3 3.6 3.6 4.5 5.t 5.1 6.3 6.3 5.7 6.1 7.4 6.4 14.1 15.4
332.3
2-91
3.7 3.5 3.« 2.7 3»t 3.2 3.7 4.1 4.1 $♦1 4.9 4.2 5.6 4.9 5.t 7.5 4.9 -4.6
326.4
3-91
3.1 2.6 2.4 2.t 2.3 2.4 2.6 3.1 3.t 3.7 3.4 2.6 3.6 2.7 2.4 3.5 t.6 -6.1 -7.6
322.t
4-*6 1-67 2-67 3-67 4-67 1-66 2-66 3-66 4-66 1-69 2-69 3-69 4-69 l-9t 2-9t 3-9t 4-9t 1-91 2-91




P r e p a r a d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e ta n k o f S t .
4 , 1991

23

L o u is

F e d e r a l

N o n d e f e n s e

E x p e n d it u r e s

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )

T«raintl
Quarter
4-66
4.6
1-67
3.1
2-67
1.1
3-67
5.9
4-67
1-66 4.6
*-66 4.6
3-66
3.6
5.3
4-66
6.3
1-69
6.6
2-69
5.4
3-69
6.2
4-69
1-9«
6.9
2-9#
6.6
6.4
3-96
6.6
4-9#
1-91
5.«
6.2
2-91
6.5
3-91

Initial Quarter
1-67 2-67 3-67 4-67

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates

1-66 2-66 3-66 4-66 1-69 2-69 3-69 4-69 l-9t 2-9t 3-9* 4-9* 1-91 2-91
764.3

1.6
-t.6 -2.7
6.4 6.6 21.7
4.6 6.t lt.6
4.6 5.6 6.5
3.4 3.7 5.4
5.5 6.1 6.t
6.5 7.2 6.9
6.1 6.7 6.1
5.5 5.9 7.1
6.3 6.6 7.9
7.1 7.6 6.7
6.9 7.4 6.4
6.5 6.9 7.6
7.t 7.4 6.2
5.t 5.2 5.6
6.3 6.6 7.3
6.6 6.9 7.5

767.3
762.1
t.4
2.4
t.5
4.6
6.5
6.t
5.1
6.3
7.3
7.1

6.6
7.1
4.7
6.3

6.6

4-66 1-67 2-67 3-67 4-67




4.5
t.5 -3.4
6.3 7.2 16 6
6.1 9.3 16 3
7.2 7.6 11 9
5.9 6.2 6 7
7.2 7.6 9 9
6.2 6.7 It 9
7.9 6.3 It 1
7.2 7.5 9 t
7.7 6.1 9 4
5.1 5.1 6 t
6.6 7.t 6 t
7.1 7.3 62

13.6
6.5
5.6
7.6
9.4
6.7
7.6
6.3
4.7
7.t
7.3

35

16 -t.2
5 9 7.1 15.t
6 3 lt.t 15.4 15.9
7 7 6.6 11.9 It.5 5.3
66 7.3 9.2 7.4 3.4 1.5
7 5 6.2 lt.t 6.6 6.5 7.1 13.1
3 6 3.6 4.2 2.2 -l.t -3.t -5.1 -2*.4
62 6.6 7.6 6.4 4.6 4.4 5.4 1.6 3*.2
66 7.t 7.9 6.9 5.5 5.6 6.6 4.6 19.6 1*.3

6**.S
6*1.3
61*.2
6*3.3
636.7
666.3
673.6
673.4
9*4.4
936.3
95*.5
954.*
963.6
929.3
992.6
1,*17.2

1-66 2-66 3-66 4-66 1-69 2-69 3-69 4-69 1-9* 2-9* 3-9* 4-9* 1-91 2-91

P re p a re d b y F e d e r a l R e s e rv e Ban k o f S t«
D e o e a b tr 4 , 1991

24

L o u is