Full text of National Economic Trends : December 1989
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N a tio n a l E c o n o m ic T r e n d s D e c e m b e r 1989 A n i m p o r t a n t p a r t o f a n a t i o n ’ s w e a l t h i s i t s s t o c k o f n o n r e s i d e n t i a l f i x e d p r i v a t e c a p i t a l . T h i s s t o c k is a m a j o r d e t e r m i n a n t o f a n e c o n o m y ’ s p o t e n t ia l to p r o d u c e g o o d s a n d s e r v ic e s . T h e g r o w t h o f th is s t o c k r e la t iv e to th e g r o w t h o f th e la b o r fo rc e In c o n t r ib u t e s to th e g r o w t h o f p r o d u c t iv it y a n d th e sta n d a rd o f liv in g . r e c e n t y e a r s , m a n y a n a ly s ts h a v e e x p r e s s e d c o n c e r n a b o u t tre n d s in U . S . p r o d u c t iv it y , th a t is , th e o u tp u t p e r h o u r w o r k e d in th e b u s in e s s s e c t o r . T h e y a r e p a r t ic u l a r l y w o r r i e d a b o u t w h e t h e r th e r e c e n t p e r s is t e n c e o f f e d e r a l b u d g e t d e f ic it s is c r o w d i n g o u t th e g r o w th T h e a c c o m p a n y in g o f c a p ita l, t a b le s h o w s th e u n d e r ly in g h a s b e e n r a tc h e tin g d o w n w a r d to th e la b o r f o r c e , t h r e a te n in g fu tu re g ro w th in o u r s ta n d a rd o f liv in g . fa c to r s th a t d e te r m in e p r o d u c t iv it y tre n d s . G r o w t h in th e c a p it a l s to c k s in c e th e 1 9 6 0 s. P r o d u c t iv it y g r o w t h , h o w e v e r , d e p e n d s o n th e g r o w t h o f c a p ita l r e la t iv e s h o w n in th e th ir d c o lu m n . D u r in g b y a n a c c e le r a t io n in la b o r f o r c e g r o w t h , r e s u lt in g th e 1 9 7 0 s, th e s lo w in g in c a p ita l s to c k g r o w t h w a s a c c o m p a n ie d in s lo w e r g r o w t h o f b o th th e c a p ita l- la b o r r a tio a n d p r o d u c t iv it y . In th e 1 9 8 0 s , t h e s lo w in g in th e c a p it a l s t o c k w a s m a t c h e d b y a s lo w in g in la b o r f o r c e g r o w t h . A s a r e s u lt , b o th th e c a p ita lla b o r r a t io a n d p r o d u c t iv it y G ro w th g re w at a b o u t th e o f th e C a p ita l sa m e ra te S to c k , (c o m p o u n d e d C a p ita l s to c k 1 as in th e C iv ilia n a n n u a l L a b o r 1970s. L a b o r ra te s fo rc e F o rc e an d P r o d u c tiv it y o f ch an g e) D iffe r e n c e P r o d u c tiv ity 1949-59 3 .7 % 1 .1 % 2 .6 % 3 .4 % 1959-69 4 .1 1 .7 2 .4 2 .9 1969-79 3 .6 2 .7 0 .9 1 .4 1979-88 2 .7 1 .7 1 .0 1 .4 1 C a p ita l is the net sto ck in co n stant-co st v a lu a tio n . V ie w s — K e ith T H E F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K of ST. IX H T S e x p r e s s e d d o n o t n e c e s s a r ily r e f le c t o f f ic ia l p o s itio n s o f t h e F e d e r a l R e s e r v e S y s te m . M . C a r ls o n T O T A L C IV IL IA N E M P L O Y M E N T (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL MONTH THOUSANDS OF PERSONS IN IT IA L MONTH 3-88 4-88 5-88 6-88 7-88 4-88 5.7 5-88 1.4 -2 7 6-88 3.1 1 8 6.5 7-88 2.4 1 3 3.4 0.3 8-88 2.3 1 4 2.8 1.1 1.8 9-88 2.2 1 5 2.6 1.3 1.8 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 114.660 114*403 115*001 115.034 115*203 115.370 1.8 115.573 10-88 2.2 1 6 2.5 1.5 1.9 1.9 2.1 11-88 2.4 1 9 2.7 2.0 2.4 2.6 3.0 4.0 12-88 2.2 1 8 2.4 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 0.6 115.947 116.009 116.711 1-89 2.7 2 4 3.0 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.5 4.0 4.0 7.5 2-89 2.6 2 3 2.9 2.4 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.2 4.4 1.5 3-89 2.6 2 4 2.9 2.5 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.1 3.9 2.2 2.9 116.853 117*136 117.113 4-89 2.4 2 1 2.6 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.4 2.9 1.4 1.3 -0.2 5-89 2.3 2 1 2.5 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.5 1.3 1.2 0.4 1.1 6-89 2.4 2 1 2.5 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.7 1.7 1.8 1.4 2.2 117.215 3.4 117.541 7-89 2.2 1 9 2.3 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.2 1.3 1.2 0.8 1.2 1.3 -0.8 8-89 2.1 1 9 2.2 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.9 2.1 1.3 1.3 0.9 1.2 1.3 0.3 1.4 117.459 9-89 1.9 1 7 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.6 -0.3 0.0 -1.4 10-89 1.9 1 7 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.3 -0.3 0.9 3-88 4-88 5-88 6-88 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 117.597 117.456 117.545 IN IT IA L MONTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS NOVEMBER 3. 1989 PAYROLL EM P LO YM EN T (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL MONTH 3-88 4-88 2.5 5-88 2.4 4-88 5-88 6-88 7-88 8-88 IN IT IA L MONTH OF PERSONS 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 THOUSANDS 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 104.901 105.091 2.2 6-88 3.4 3.8 5.5 7-88 3.1 3.3 3.9 2.4 105.561 8-88 2.9 3.0 3.3 2.3 2.1 105.768 105.954 9-88 2.9 3.0 3.2 2.5 2.5 2.9 10-88 3.0 3.0 3.2 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.1 11-88 3.1 3.2 3.3 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.5 4.0 12-88 3.1 3.2 3.3 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.1 1-89 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.5 106.207 106.475 106.824 107.097 3.9 107.442 2-89 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.0 3-89 3.1 3.1 3.2 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.0 4-89 3.0 3.1 3.1 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.4 5-89 3.0 3.0 3.1 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.3 6-89 3.0 3.0 3.1 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.8 3.3 107*711 107.888 108.101 108*310 108.607 7-89 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 1.8 8-89 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.3 9-89 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 1.8 1.8 2.2 10-89 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.6 3-88 4-88 5-88 6-88 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 108.767 108.887 109.088P 109.321P IN IT IA L MONTH P- PRELIM IN A RY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERV E BANK OF S T . LO U IS NOVEMBER 3» 1989 2 EMPLOYMENT R ATI O SCALE M I L L I O N S OF PERSONS RATI O SCALE M I L L I O N S OF PERSONS SEASO N A LLY A D JU S TE D SOURCEt U.S.DEPARTMENT OF LABOR BEGINNING JANUARY 1986. TOTAL EMPLOYMENT OATA INCORPORATE NEW PROCEDURES FOR ESTIMATING MEASURES OF IMMIGRATION AND EMIGRATION INCREASING TOTAL EMPLOYMENT BY ABOUT 0.3X. PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED: OCTOBER PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS UNEMPLOYMENT PERCENT S E A S O N A LLY RATE PERCENT A D JU S TE D 1 1 .0 10 1 0 .0 9.0 8 .0 7.0 6 .0 5.0 4 .0 1981 19 8 2 1983 1984 19 8 5 1986 1 98 7 1988 19 8 9 SOURCEt U .S . DEPARTMENT OF LABOR PERCENT OF C IV IL IA N LABOR FORCE LATEST DATA PLOTTED: OCTOBER PREPARED BY FEDERAL R ESER VE BANK OF S T . L O U IS 3 C O N S U M E R P R IC E IN D E X F O R A L L U R B A N C O N S U M E R S (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL MONTH IN ITIAL MONTH 3-88 4-88 5 .3 5-88 5 .3 4-88 5-88 6-88 7-88 8- 88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 1982-84*100 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 1 1 7 .2 1 1 7 .7 5 .2 118 .1 6-88 4 .9 4 .7 4 .2 7-88 5 .0 4 .9 4 .7 5 .2 8-88 4 .8 4 .7 4 .5 4 .7 4 .1 9-88 4 .9 4 .8 4 .7 4 .8 4 .6 10-88 4 .9 4 .8 4 .8 4 .9 4 .8 11-88 4 .7 4 .6 4 .5 4 .5 4 .4 4 .4 4 .1 3 .0 12-88 4 .6 4 .5 4 .4 4 .5 4 .3 4 .3 4 .1 3 .6 4 .1 1-89 4 .9 4 .8 4 .8 4 .8 4 .8 4 .9 4 .8 4 .7 5 .6 7 .2 2-89 4 .9 4 .8 4 .8 4 .9 4 .8 4 .9 4 .9 4 .8 5 .4 6 .1 5 .1 5-89 5 .0 4 .9 4 .9 5 .0 5 .0 5 .1 5 .1 5 .6 6 .1 5 .6 4-89 5 .2 5 .2 5 .2 5 .3 5 .3 5 .5 5 .6 6 .1 6 .6 6 .4 7 .1 8 .1 5-89 5 .3 5 .3 5 .4 5 .5 5 .5 5 .7 5 .8 6 .2 6 .7 6 .6 7 .1 7 .6 7 .0 6-89 5 .1 5 .1 5 .1 5 .2 5 .2 5 .3 5 .3 5 .6 5 .9 5 .6 5 .8 5 .7 4 .5 2 .0 7-89 5 .0 5 .0 4 .9 5 .0 5 .0 5 .0 5 .0 5 .3 5 .5 5 .2 5 .2 5 .0 4 .0 2 .4 2 .9 8-89 4 .7 4 .6 4 .6 4 .6 4 .6 4 .6 4 .6 4 .5 4 .7 4 .8 4 .4 4 .3 4 .0 2 .9 1 .6 1 .5 4 .4 1 1 8 .6 9-89 4 .5 4 .5 4 .4 4 .4 4 .4 10-89 4 .6 4 .6 4 .5 4 .5 4 .5 3-88 4-88 5-88 6-88 7-88 1 1 9 .0 1 1 9 .5 5 .2 1 2 0 .0 5 .1 8 - 88 1 2 0 .3 1 2 0 .7 1 2 1 .4 1 2 1 .9 1 2 2 .5 6 .1 1 2 3 .3 1 2 4 .0 1 2 4 .2 1 2 4 .5 1 2 4 .5 0 .0 1 2 4 .7 4 .4 4 .3 4 .4 4 .4 4 .1 4 .0 3 .6 2 .7 1 .7 1 .6 1 .0 1 .9 4 .5 4 .4 4 .5 4 .6 4 .3 4 .2 4 .0 3 .3 2 .5 2 .7 2 .6 3 .9 5 .9 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 1 2 5 .3 I N I T I A L MONTH P R EPA R ED B Y F E D ER A L R E S E R V E BANK OF S T . NOVEMBER 21» 1989 L O U IS P R O D U C E R P R IC E I N D E X , F I N I S H E D G O O D S (Compounded Annua) Rates of Change) TER M IN A L MONTH I N I T I A L MONTH 3-88 4-88 5-88 6-88 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1982 * 100 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10 7 .1 4-88 3 .4 5-88 3 .4 3 .4 6-88 3 .0 2 .8 2 .3 7-88 4 .0 4 .2 4 .6 6 .9 8-88 3 .9 4 .0 4 .2 5 .1 3 .4 1 0 7 .4 1 0 7 .6 10 8 .2 1 0 8 .5 1 09 .1 9-88 4 .4 4 .5 4 .8 5 .7 5 .1 10-88 3 .9 4 .0 4 .1 4 .5 3 .7 11-88 3 .8 3 .9 3 .9 4 .3 3 .6 3 .7 2 .2 3 .3 12-88 3 .9 3 .9 4 .0 4 .3 3 .8 3 .9 3 .0 3 .9 4 .5 1-89 4 .9 5 .0 5 .2 5 .6 5 .4 5 .6 7 .1 9 .1 1 3 .9 2-89 5 .4 5 .6 5 .9 6 .3 6 .3 6 .7 8 .2 9 .8 1 2 .6 1 1 .4 6 .8 l.l 6 .7 1 0 9 .2 1 0 9 .5 1 0 9 .9 1 11 .1 1 12 .1 3-89 5 .4 5 .6 5 .8 6 .2 6 .2 6 .6 6 .5 7 .6 8 .7 1 0 .2 8 .4 5 .5 4-89 5 .4 5 .6 5 .8 6 .2 6 .1 6 .4 6 .4 7 .3 8 .1 9 .0 7 .4 5 .5 5 .5 5-89 5 .8 6 .0 6 .2 6 .6 6 .6 6 .9 7 .0 7 .8 8 .6 9 .4 8 .3 7 .3 8 .3 1 1 .1 6-89 5 .5 5 .7 5 .8 6 .1 6 .1 6 .3 6 .3 6 .9 7 .5 8 .0 6 .8 5 .7 5 .8 6 .0 1 .1 7-89 4 .7 4 .8 4 .8 5 .1 4 .9 4 .9 5 .3 5 .5 5 .7 4 .4 3 .0 2 .4 1 .4 - 3 .1 - 7 .1 8-89 4 .1 4 .2 4 .2 4 .4 4 .2 4 .2 4 .0 4 .3 4 .4 4 .4 3 .1 1 .8 1 .1 0 .0 - 3 .5 - 5 .6 - 4 .1 9-89 4 .5 4 .6 4 .6 4 .8 4 .7 4 .8 4 .6 4 .9 5 .1 5 .1 4 .1 3 .1 2 .7 2 .1 0 .0 - 0 .3 3 .2 1 1 .1 10-89 4 .6 4 .6 4 .7 4 .8 4 .7 4 .6 4 .9 5 .1 5 .2 4 .2 3 .4 3 .1 2 .7 1 .1 1 .1 3 .9 8 .2 5 .4 3-88 4-88 5-88 6-88 7-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 8 - 88 1 1 2 .6 113 .1 1 14 .1 1 1 4 .2 1 1 3 .5 113.1 1 14 .1 1 1 4 .6 INITIAL MONTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS NOVEMBER 9» 1989 4 RATIO SCALE P R I C E S RATIO SCALE CONSUMER PRICES DATA ARE ON A 1962-84-100 BASE CPI-U DATA BEGINNING 1983 INCORPORATE A RENTAL EOUI VALENCE MEASURE FOR HOMEOVNERSHIP COSTS. PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTEOt OCTOBER 11 BANK OF ST. LOUIS R A T IO scale 1982-100 PRODUCER P R IC E S SEASO NALLY AO JUSTED r a t io scale 1982-100 PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED« OCTOBER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 5 P R O D U C E R P R IC E IN D E X , F IN IS H E D C O N S U M E R F O O D S (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a ] R a te s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL MONTH IN IT IA L MONTH 5-88 4—88 5-88 *-88 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 1982 « 100 2-89 5-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 110.6 4-88 0 0 5-88 5 5 6.7 6-88 5 5 8.4 10.2 7-88 6 4 8.6 9.5 8.9 8-88 6 6 8.4 8.9 8.5 9-88 7 4 8 .9 9.5 9.2 9.4 11.1 10-88 6 4 7.6 7.7 7.1 6.5 6.0 1.1 11-88 6 2 7.1 7.1 6.5 6.0 5.4 2.6 4.3 12-88 5 6 6.5 6.2 5.6 5.0 4.5 2.1 2.6 1.0 1-89 6 7 7.4 7.5 7.1 6.8 6.7 5.6 7.2 8.6 16.8 2-89 7 1 7.9 8.0 7.7 7.6 7.5 6.8 8.3 9.7 14.3 11.9 111.2 112.1 112.9 113.6 7.7 114.6 114.7 115.1 115.2 116.7 117.8 118.8 5-89 7 4 8.1 8.5 8.0 7.9 8 .0 7.5 8.8 10.0 13.1 11.3 10.7 4-89 6 2 6.8 6.8 6.5 6.2 6.0 5.3 6.0 6.4 7.7 4.9 1.5 -6.8 5-89 6 6 7.1 7.1 6.8 6.6 6.5 5.9 6.7 7.1 8.3 6.3 4.5 1.5 10.6 6-89 5 6 6.0 6.0 5.6 5.5 5.1 4.4 4.9 5.0 5.6 3.5 1.5 -1.3 1.5 -6.8 7-89 5 2 5.5 5.4 5.1 4.8 4.5 3.9 4.2 4.2 4.7 2.8 1.0 -1.3 0.7 -4.0 -1.0 8-89 5 1 5.4 5.4 5.0 4.7 4.5 3.9 4.2 4.2 4.6 3.0 1.5 -0.2 1.5 -1.3 1.5 4.1 9-89 4 4 4.7 4.6 4.2 5.9 3.6 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.3 1.7 0.3 -1.3 -0.2 -2.7 -1.3 -1.5 -6.9 10-89 5 1 5.4 5.5 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.6 3.3 2.3 1.2 2.6 1.0 3.1 4.5 4.6 17.5 5-88 4-88 5-88 6-88 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 118.1 119.1 118.4 118.3 118.7 118.0 119.6 IN IT IA L MONTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS NOVEMBER 9» 1989 P R O D U C E R P R IC E I N D E X , F I N I S H E D G O O D S , E X C L U D I N G F O O D S (Compounded A nnual Rates of Change) TERMINAL MONTH IN IT IA L MONTH 3-88 4-88 5-88 6-88 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 1982 * 100 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 105.9 4-88 4.6 5-88 3.5 2.3 6-88 2.5 1.1 0.0 106.1 106.1 7-88 5.2 2.7 2.9 5.8 8-88 5.2 2.9 3.1 4.6 3.4 9-88 5.4 3.2 3.4 4.6 4.0 4.6 10-88 5.1 2.9 5.0 5.7 3.0 2.8 1.1 11-88 5.1 2.9 5.0 3.7 3.1 3.0 2.3 3.4 12-88 3.4 3.5 5.4 4.0 3.6 3.7 3.4 4.6 106.6 106.9 107.3 107.4 107.7 5.7 108.2 1-89 4.3 4.3 4.6 5.2 5.1 5.5 5.7 7.3 9.3 12.9 2-89 4.8 4.8 5.1 5.7 5.7 6.1 6.4 7.7 9.2 11.0 9.1 3-89 4.7 4.7 5.0 5.6 5.5 5.8 6.1 7.1 8.0 8 .8 6.8 4-89 5.2 5.2 5.5 6.0 6.0 6.4 6.6 7.6 8.4 9.1 7.9 7.3 10.2 5-89 5.7 5.7 6.0 6.6 6.7 7.0 7.4 8.3 9.1 9.8 9.0 9.0 11.4 12.5 6-89 5.4 5.5 5.7 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.8 7.5 8.1 8.5 7.6 7.3 8.2 7.2 2.2 7-89 4.5 4.5 4.7 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.6 5.9 5.9 4.8 4.0 3.8 1.8 -3.2 -8.2 109.3 110.1 4.4 110.5 111.4 112.5 112.7 111.9 8-89 3.9 3.8 5.9 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.4 4.5 4.3 3.2 2.2 1.7 -0.3 -4.2 -7.2 -6.2 9-89 4.6 4.6 4.8 5.1 5.0 5.2 5.2 5.6 5.8 5.8 5.0 4.4 4.4 3.3 1.1 0.7 5.5 18.7 10-89 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.2 4.4 3.8 3.8 2.7 0.9 0.5 3.6 8.9 0.0 3-88 4-88 5-88 6—88 7-88 8—88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 111.3 112.9 112.9 IN IT IA L MONTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO U IS NOVEMBER 9» 1989 6 N D U S T R I A L P R O D U C T I O N RATI O SCALE 1977-100 1981 RATI O SCALE 1977-100 SEASO N A LLY A D JU S TE D 198 2 19 8 3 1 98 4 1985 19 8 6 1 98 7 198 8 19 8 9 PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED* OCTOBER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS IN D U S T R IA L P R O D U C T IO N (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL MONTH IN IT IA L MONTH 3—88 4-88 4-88 5-88 6-88 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 1977 * 100 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 135.4 6.4 136.1 5-88 6.4 6.4 4-88 5.5 5.0 3.6 136.5 7-88 7.5 7.9 8.7 14.0 8-88 6.9 7.0 7.2 9.1 4.4 138.0 9-88 5.9 5.8 5.6 6.3 2.6 0.9 10-88 6.1 6.0 5.9 6.5 4.1 4.0 7.2 11-88 5.8 5.8 5.7 6.1 4.2 4.1 5.8 4.4 12-88 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.8 4.2 4.2 5.3 4.4 4.4 1-89 5.5 5.4 5.2 5.5 4.1 4.0 4.8 4.1 3.9 3.5 2-89 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.4 3.1 2.9 3.3 2.4 1.7 0.4 -2.5 3-89 4.5 4.3 4.1 4.1 2.9 2.7 3.1 2.3 1.7 0.9 -0.4 1.7 4-89 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.6 3.6 3.5 3.9 3.3 3.1 2.8 2.6 5.2 8.9 5-89 4.4 4.2 4.0 4.1 3.1 3.0 3.3 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.7 3.2 3.9 6-89 4.3 4.2 4.0 4.0 3.2 3.0 3.3 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.1 3.2 3.7 1.3 3.4 7-89 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.6 2.6 0.6 1.3 -0.8 8-89 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.7 2.9 2.8 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.1 2.0 2.7 2.9 1.5 2.3 1.7 9-89 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.4 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.7 2.3 2.4 1.2 1.7 1.1 2.1 0.0 10-89 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.0 1.8 -0.3 -1.3 -1.4 -4.1 -8.1 3-88 4-88 5-88 6-88 7-88 8-88 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 2.8 138.5 2.7 138.6 2.9 139.4 2.4 139.9 2.2 140.4 1.8 140.8 1.6 140.5 2.4 140.7 141.7 0.9 0.6 1.0 0.9 -0.4 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1.9 1.4 1.2 141.6 -0.8 142.0 141.9 4.3 142.4 142.4P 141.4P IN IT IA L MONTH P- PRELIM IN A RY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERV E BANK OF S T . LO U IS NOVEMBER 14» 1989 7 P E R S O N A L RATI O SCALE TRILLIONS 1981 I N C O M E MONTHLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES OF DOLLARS 1982 19 8 3 1 98 4 19 8 5 RATI O SCALE TRILLIO NS SEASO N A LLY A D JU S TE D 19 8 6 1987 OF 19 8 8 DOLLARS 1989 SOURCE* U .S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED» OCTOBER PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS P E R S O N A L IN C O M E (Compounded A nnaal Rates of Change) TERMINAL MONTH 5-88 4-88 5-88 6-88 7-88 8-88 IN IT IA L MONTH ANNUAL RATES 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 BILLION S OF DOLLARS 2-89 5-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 4*007.1 4-88 8.6 5-88 6.8 5.0 (-88 7.2 6.5 8.1 7-88 7.8 7.5 8.7 9.4 8-88 7.1 6.7 7.2 6.8 4.5 9-88 7.1 6.8 7.5 7.0 5.8 7.4 10-88 8.8 8.8 9.6 10.0 10.2 15.5 19.6 11-88 7.2 7.0 7.4 7.2 6.7 7.5 7.6 -5.5 12-88 7.7 7.5 7.9 7.9 7.6 8.4 8.8 5.8 1-89 8.9 8.9 9.5 9.7 9.7 10.8 11.7 9.2 16.0 20.8 2-89 9.4 9.4 9.9 10.2 10.5 11.5 12.1 10.5 15.5 17.5 15.8 4*025.5 4*049.4 4*079.8 4*094.2 4*118.6 4*180.4 4*168.9 4*206.5 11.5 4*275.1 4*519.5 5-89 9.6 9.7 10.1 10.4 10.5 11.4 12.1 10.7 14.4 15.5 12.9 12.1 4-89 9.4 9.5 9.9 10.1 10.2 10.9 11.4 10.1 15.0 15.5 11.1 9.8 7.5 4*560.7 5-89 8.9 8.9 9.5 9.4 9.4 10.0 10.5 9.0 11.2 11.2 8.9 7.5 5.0 2.5 *-89 8.7 8.7 9.0 9.1 9.1 9.5 9.8 8 .6 10.4 10.5 8.5 7.0 5.5 4.2 5.9 7-89 8.6 8.6 8.9 9.0 8 .9 9*4 9.6 8 .5 10.1 9.9 8.2 7.1 5.9 5.5 6.7 7.5 8-89 8.4 8.5 8.6 8 .6 8.5 8.9 9.0 8.0 9.4 9.1 7.6 6.5 5.5 5.0 5.8 5.7 5.9 9-89 8.1 8.0 8.2 8.2 8.1 8 .4 8.5 7.6 8 .7 8.4 7.0 6.0 5.1 4.6 5.1 4.8 5.5 5.1 10-89 8.2 8.2 8.4 8.4 8 .4 8.7 8.7 7.9 9.0 8.7 7.5 6.7 6.0 5.7 6.5 6*4 6.1 7.2 11.5 5-88 4-88 5-88 6-88 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 4*587.1 4*596.5 4*417.5 4*444.5 4*458.5 4*469.7 4*510.5P IN IT IA L MONTH P- PRELIM IN A RY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERV E BANK OF S T . LO U IS NOVEMBER SO* 1989 8 RETAIL SALES R ATI O SCALE RATI O SCALE B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS BILLIO N S S EAS O N A LLY A D JU S TE D OF DOLLARS 170 160 150 140 130 120 1 10 1 00 90 80 70 1981 198 2 19 8 3 19 8 4 1985 19 8 6 1987 SOURCE: PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PER IO D S LATEST DATA PLOTTED: SEPT EM BER, U .S . 1988 19 8 9 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE IN D ICATED . OCTOBER ADVANCE ESTIM ATE PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESER VE BANK OF ST . LO U IS R E T A IL S A LE S (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL MONTH MILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN IT IA L MONTH 5-88 4-88 -6.5 5-88 0.9 4-88 5-88 6-88 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 155.077 154.005 8.7 155»060 6-88 5.8 9.5 9.9 7-88 4.4 8.5 8 .0 6.2 155»741 8-88 5.6 6.5 5.5 5.5 0.5 9-88 2.4 4.5 5.2 1.1 -1.4 -5.5 155.800 10-88 5.7 7.8 7.6 7.1 7.4 11.0 27.5 11-88 6.5 8.5 8.4 8.1 8.6 11.4 19.6 12.4 12-88 5.4 7.0 6.7 6.2 6.2 7.7 11.6 4.5 155.421 158.176 159.529 -2.9 159*189 1-89 5.6 7.0 6.8 6.4 6.4 7.7 10.6 5.5 2.2 7.6 2-89 4.6 5.8 5.4 4.9 4.7 5.4 7.2 2.7 -0.5 1.0 -5.1 5-89 4.5 5.5 5.0 4.4 4.2 4.7 6.1 2.5 0.0 0.9 -2.2 0.8 140.040 159*428 159*516 4-89 5.2 6.5 6.0 5.7 5.6 6.5 7.7 4.7 5.5 4.9 4.0 8.9 17.6 5-89 5.6 6.5 6.4 6.1 6.0 6.7 8.0 5.5 4.4 5.9 5.5 9.2 15.7 10.0 6-89 5.2 6.0 5.8 5.5 5.4 5.9 7.0 4.7 5.7 4.8 4.5 6.8 8.8 4.7 -0.4 7-89 5.4 6.5 6.1 5.8 5.8 6.2 7.5 5.2 4.4 5.4 5.1 7.5 8.9 6.2 4.5 9.5 8-89 5.8 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.2 6.7 7.6 5.8 5.1 6.2 6.0 7.9 9.4 7.5 6.7 10.4 11.5 9-89 5.9 6.7 6.6 6.4 6.4 6.8 7.7 6.1 5.5 6.5 6.5 8.1 9.4 7.8 7.2 9.9 10.2 10-89 5.0 5.6 5.5 5.2 5.1 5.4 6.1 4.6 5.9 4.6 4.2 5.5 6.2 4.4 5.5 4.2 2.6 5-88 4-88 5-88 6-88 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 141*415 142*545 142»500 145»555 144»860 9.0 145»904P -1.6 -11.2 8-89 144»466E 9-89 IN IT IA L MONTH P- PRELIM IN A RY E- ESTIM ATED PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERV E BANK OF ST* LO U IS NOVEMBER 14» 1989 9 H O U R L Y C O M P E N S A T IO N , B U S IN E S S S E C T O R (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER IN IT IA L QUARTER 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 1977*100 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 171.8 1-85 4 5 2-85 4 3 4.0 3-85 4 7 4.8 173.5 5.6 175.9 178.6 4-85 5 1 5.3 6.0 6.3 1-86 5 2 5.4 5.8 5.9 5.5 181.0 183.0 2-86 5 1 5.2 5.5 5.4 5.0 4 5 3-86 5 0 5.1 5.3 5.2 4.9 4 4.7 4-86 5 0 5.1 5.3 5.2 4.9 4 4.9 185 1 5.1 187. A 188.3 1-87 4 7 4.7 4.8 4.6 4.3 4 3.9 3.5 1.9 2-87 4 5 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.0 3 3.6 3.2 2.3 2.6 3-87 4 5 4.5 4.6 4.4 4.2 3 3.8 3.6 3.1 3.8 189.5 4.9 191.8 195.1 4-87 4 7 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.5 4 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.8 6.0 7.1 1-88 4 6 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.3 4 2 4.1 4.0 3.8 4.3 4.9 4.9 2-88 4 6 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.4 4 3 4.3 4.3 4.1 4.6 5.1 5.1 4.1 5.6 3-88 4 7 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.6 4 5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.8 5.2 5.3 4.7 5.7 4-88 4 7 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.6 4 5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.3 4.8 5.5 5.5 5.3 1-89 4 7 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.6 4 6 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.2 4.8 5.3 5.3 5.0 196.4 2.7 199.1 201.9 5.7 204.5 4.8 206.9 2-89 4 9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4 7 4.8 4.8 4.7 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.2 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 6.9 3-89 4 9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4 7 4.8 4.8 4.7 5.0 5.3 5.3 5.1 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.8 4.6 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 210.4 212.8 IN IT IA L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS NOVEMBER 2» 1989 O U T P U T P E R H O U R O F A L L P E R S O N S , B U S IN E S S S E C T O R (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL QUARTER 4-84 1-85 2.3 2-85 2.7 IN IT IA L QUARTER 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 1977«100 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 106.5 3.0 107.1 3-85 2.9 3.2 3.4 4-85 2.5 2.5 2.3 1.1 108.0 108.5 1-86 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.3 7.6 2-86 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.6 3.4 -0.7 3-86 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.6 -1.5 -1.8 4—86 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.3 1.4 -0.6 -0.5 0.7 1-87 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.3 -0.5 -0.1 0.7 110.5 110.1 109.6 109.8 0.7 110.0 2-87 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.5 0.5 0.5 1.3 1.6 2.6 3-87 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.8 0.8 1.2 1.9 2.5 5.1 5*7 4-87 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.1 1.4 2.1 2.5 5.0 5.5 2.9 110.7 111.7 112.5 1-88 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.3 1.6 2.2 2.5 2.9 5.0 2.7 2.5 2-88 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.6 0.9 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.1 0.2 -2.1 3-*8 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.1 0.4 2.9 4-88 1.8 1.« 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.3 0.9 0.4 1.6 0.4 1-89 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.5 1.4 0.7 2-89 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.0 0.7 1.4 0.9 1.2 1.4 3-89 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.1 0.8 1.4 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.4 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 115.2 112.6 115.4 115.5 1.1 115.8 114.2 114.6 IN IT IA L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL R ESER V E BANK OF S T . LO U IS NOVEMBER 2* 1989 10 PR O D U C T IV IT Y , R A T IO C O M P E N S A T IO N , AND LA BO R COSTS S C A LE R A T IO SEASONALLY AP JUSTED 1977-100 1961 1982 1983 1984 1985 SCA LE 1977-100 1986 1987 1988 1989 SOURCEi U .S . DEPARTMENT OF LABOR PERCENTA9ES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIOOS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED« 3RD OUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS U N I T L A B O R C O S T S , B U S IN E S S S E C T O R (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL. QUARTER 4-84 IN IT IA L QUARTER 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 1-85 2*3 2-85 1.5 0.7 3-85 1.9 1.7 2.7 4-85 2.6 2.7 3.7 4.7 1-86 1.7 1.5 1.8 1.4 -1.9 2-86 2.3 2.3 2.7 2.7 1.7 5.5 3-86 2.9 3.0 3.4 3.6 3.2 5.9 6.4 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 1977*100 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 161.6 161.9 165.0 164.9 164.1 166.5 168.9 4-86 3.0 3,1 3.6 3.7 3.5 5.3 5.2 4.1 1-87 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.0 4.3 3.9 2.7 1.4 2-87 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.6 3.5 3.0 1.9 0.8 0.2 3-87 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.3 8.0 2.5 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.7 4-87 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.6 3.2 2.9 2.2 1.7 1.8 2.6 4.5 1-88 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.8 2.5 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.2 0.0 2-88 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.8 3.4 3.1 2.7 2.4 2.7 5.5 4.1 4.0 8.1 3-88 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.8 3.3 3.1 2.7 2.5 2.6 5.1 3.7 3.5 5.3 4-88 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.5 3.3 2.9 2.8 5.0 3.4 4.0 3.9 5.2 3.8 5.0 1-89 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.5 3.3 3.0 2.9 5.1 3.5 4.0 3.9 4.8 3.8 4.4 5.8 2-89 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.1 5.5 3.7 4.1 4.0 4.9 4.1 4.6 4.4 4.9 3-89 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.6 3.5 3.2 5.1 5.5 3.7 4.0 4.0 4.6 4.0 4.5 4.1 4.2 5.5 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 170.6 171.2 171.5 171.6 173.5 175.5 176.9 2.5 178.0 180.2 181.9 184.1 185.7 IN IT IA L QUARTER PREPARED BY FED ERAL R ESER V E BANK OF S T . LO U IS NOVEMBER 2» 1989 11 G R O SS N A T IO N A L P R O D U C T IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S (Compounded A nnual Rates of Change) IN IT IA L QUARTER TERMINAL QUARTER 4-84 1-85 2-85 3—85 4-85 1—84 2-84 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 B IL L IO N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 3 »925.6 1-85 7.9 2-85 6.7 5.6 3-85 6.8 6.3 3*979.0 7.0 4*047.0 4-85 6.6 6.2 6.6 6.2 1-86 6.8 6.5 6.8 6.7 7.3 2-86 5.9 5.4 5.4 4.9 4.3 1.3 3-86 5.8 5.5 5.5 5.1 4.7 3.5 5.7 4-86 5.6 5.3 5.3 4.9 4.6 3.7 5.0 4.2 1-87 6.0 5.7 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.0 6.2 6.5 8.8 2-87 6.2 6.0 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.6 6.7 7.0 8.5 8.2 3-87 6.4 6.2 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.1 7.0 7.4 8.4 8.3 8.4 4-87 6.6 6.5 6.6 6.5 6.6 6.5 7.4 7.7 8.6 8.5 8 .7 9.0 1-88 6.6 6.5 6.6 6.5 6.6 6.5 7.2 7.5 8.2 8 .0 7.9 7.7 6.5 2-88 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.7 7.4 7.6 8 .2 8.1 8.1 8.0 7.5 8 .6 3-88 6.8 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 7.4 7.6 8.1 8.0 8.0 7.9 7.5 8.1 7.5 4-88 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.4 7.6 8.1 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.5 7.9 7.5 7.5 1-89 6.9 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 6.9 7.5 7.6 8.0 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.6 7.9 7.6 7.7 7.9 2-89 6.9 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 6.9 7.4 7.6 7.9 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.1 3-89 6.9 6.8 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.3 7.5 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.3 7.4 7.2 7.1 7.0 6.6 6.1 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 4*107.9 4*181.3 4*194.7 4*253.3 4*297.3 4*388.8 4*475.9 4*566.6 4*665.8 4»739.8 4 »838.5 4*926.9 5*017.3 5*113.1 5*201.7 5*278.9P IN IT IA L QUARTER PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS NOVEMBER 29» 1989 G R O S S N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T I N 1982 D O L L A R S (Compounded A nnual Rates of Change) TERMINAL QUARTER 4-84 IN IT IA L QUARTER 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 BILLION S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 3*577.5 1-85 4.9 2-85 3.7 2.4 3-85 3.8 3.3 3*599.2 3*635.8 4.1 3*662.4 4-85 3.6 3.2 3.5 3.0 1-86 4.2 4.0 4.5 4.7 6.6 3*721.1 3*704.6 2-86 3.2 2.8 2.9 2.5 2.3 -1.8 3-86 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.1 1.8 -0.5 0.8 4-86 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.1 1.9 0.4 1.6 2.3 1-87 3.1 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.6 1.7 2.8 3.8 5.4 2-87 3.2 3.0 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.2 3.2 4.0 4.9 4.4 3-87 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.2 2.7 3.6 4.3 5.0 4.8 5.3 4-87 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.3 4.1 4.8 5.4 5.4 5.9 6.6 3*712.4 3*733.6 3*783.0 3*823.5 3*872.8 3*935.6 1-88 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.4 4.1 4.7 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.3 4.0 2-88 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.4 4.0 4.5 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.8 3.9 3*974.8 4*010.7 3.7 3-88 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.4 4.0 4.4 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.4 3.6 3.4 3.2 4-88 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.3 3.8 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.0 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.7 4*042.7 1-89 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.3 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.0 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.7 2-89 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.7 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.3 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.1 2.5 3-89 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.2 3.6 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.6 2.7 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 4*069.4 4*106.8 4*132.5 4*160.2P IN IT IA L QUARTER P- PRELIM IN A RY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERV E BANK OF S T . LO U IS NOVEMBER 29» 1989 12 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT RATIO SCALE TRILLIONS QUARTERLY OF DOLLARS T O T A L S AT A NN U A L SEASONALLY RATES ADJUSTED RATIO T R IL LIO N S OF SCALE DOLLARS 6 4.8 6 4.0 8 3.2 0 2 . 8 6 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 SO U RC E« PERC EN TA G ES ARE LA TEST PLO TTED « DATA ANNUAL RA TES 3RD OF Q U A RTER CHANGE FO R P E R IO D S 1987 U .S . 1988 D EPARTM EN T 1989 OF C O M M ERCE IN D IC A T E D . P R E L IM IN A R Y PREPA RED 13 BY FED ERAL R ESE R V E BANK OF ST . L O U IS G E N E R A L P R I C E I N D E X * R AT I O SCALE RATI O SCALE 1982-100 1982-100 9 0 --------- ----- ----------------------- --------- --------------------c--------- ----- ■ L- 1981 1982 1 98 3 1984 198 5 1986 «AS USED IN NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS 198 7 19 8 8 198 9 SOURCEt U .S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt 3RD QUARTER PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS I M P L I C I T P R IC E D E F L A T O R F O R G R O S S N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL QUARTER 4-84 IN IT IA L QUARTER 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 1982 * 100 3-87 4-87 1-88 1-85 2*6 2-85 3.0 3.3 3-85 2*8 2.9 2.6 4-85 2.9 3.1 2.9 3.3 1-86 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.0 0.7 2-86 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 1.8 2.9 3-86 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.9 4.0 5.0 4-86 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 3.2 3.4 1.8 1-87 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 3.2 3.3 2.5 3.2 2-87 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.3 3.4 2.9 3.5 3*8 3-87 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.3 2.9 3*3 3*3 2*8 4-87 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.8 3.1 3.2 2.8 3*0 3*0 2*6 2*4 1-88 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 3.0 3.0 2.7 2*8 2*8 2*4 2.2 2*0 2-88 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.0 3*2 3*2 3*0 3.1 3*4 4*8 3-88 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.1 3*3 3.4 3*3 3.4 3*7 4*6 4—88 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.3 3*5 3*5 1-89 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.4 3*6 3*6 3*6 3.7 4*0 2-89 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.6 3.6 3.5 3*7 3*7 3*7 3.8 4*1 3-89 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.5 3*6 3*7 3*6 3.7 3*9 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 109*7 110*6 111*3 112*2 112*4 113*2 114*6 115*1 116*0 117*1 3*5 117*9 3.6 118*6 4*0 119*2 120*6 121*9 4*4 123*3 4*5 4*7 4*3 4*3 4*0 4*5 4*4 4*4 4*3 4*6 4.3 4*2 4*1 3*9 3*9 3*2 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 4*6 4*4 124*5 125*9 126*9P IN IT IA L QUARTER P- PRELIM IN A RY PREPARED BY FEDERAL R ESER V E BANK OF ST* LO U IS NOVEMBER 29» 1989 14 P E R S O N A L C O N S U M P T IO N E X P E N D IT U R E S I N C U R R E N T D O L L A R S (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) B IL L IO N S OF TERMINAL QUARTER 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 IN IT IA L QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 DOLLARS 1-88 4-87 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 2*554.9 1-85 10.2 2-85 8.7 7.1 3-85 9.1 8.5 9.9 4-85 8.3 7.7 7.9 6 0 1-86 7.7 7.0 7.0 5 6 5.1 2-86 7.0 6.4 6.2 5 0 4.5 4.0 3-86 7.4 7.0 6.9 6 2 6.2 6.8 9 8 4-86 7.3 6.8 6.8 6 2 6.2 6.6 7 9 6.2 1-87 7.2 6.8 6.8 6 2 6.3 6.6 7 5 6.4 6.6 2-87 7.5 7.2 7.2 6 9 7.0 7.4 8 3 7.8 8.6 2*599.3 2*661.4 2*700.4 2*734.3 2*761.0 2*826.0 2*868.5 2*914.7 2*989.4 10.7 3*055.9 3-87 7.7 7.4 7.5 7 2 7.3 7.7 8 5 8.1 8.8 9.9 9.2 4-87 7.3 7.1 7.1 6 6.9 7.1 7 7.2 7.5 7.8 6.4 3.6 1-88 7.4 7.2 7.2 6 7.1 7.3 7 7.5 7.7 8.0 7.1 6.1 8.7 2-88 7.4 7.2 7.2 7 7.1 7.3 7 7.5 7.7 7.9 7.2 6.6 8.0 7.4 3-88 7.4 7.2 7.3 7 7.1 7.3 7 7.5 7.6 7.8 7.3 6.8 7.9 7.5 7.5 4-88 7.5 7.3 7.3 7 7.2 7.4 7 7.5 7.6 7.8 7.3 7.0 7.8 7.5 7.6 7.6 1-89 7.4 7.3 7.3 7 7.2 7.3 7 7.4 7.6 7.7 7.3 7.0 7.7 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.1 2-89 7.4 7.3 7.3 7 7.2 7.4 7 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.3 7.1 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.6 3-89 7.5 7.3 7.3 7 2 7.3 7.4 7 7.5 7.7 7.8 7.4 7.2 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.9 8.3 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4—86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3*083.3 3*148.1 3*204.9 3*263.4 3*324.0 3*381.4 3*444.1 3*513.2P IN IT IA L QUARTER P- PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS NOVEMBER 29» 1989 P E R S O N A L C O N S U M P T I O N E X P E N D I T U R E S I N 1982 D O L L A R S (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL QUARTER 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 IN IT IA L QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 BILLIO N S OF DOLLARS 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 2*319.1 1-85 6.8 2-85 5.0 3.2 3-85 5.6 5.0 6.8 4-85 4.6 3.9 4.3 1.9 1-86 4.5 4.0 4.2 3.0 4.1 2-86 4.4 3.9 4.1 3.2 3.8 3.6 2*337.4 2*375.9 2*386.9 2,410.9 2*432.4 3-86 4.5 4.1 4.3 3.7 4.4 4.5 5.4 4-86 4.2 3.9 4.0 3.4 3.8 3.7 3.8 2*464.4 2.2 2*477.8 1-87 3.8 3.4 3.4 2.9 3.1 2.8 2.5 1.1 0.1 2-87 3.9 3.5 3.6 3.1 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.3 2.4 4.8 3-87 3.9 3.6 3.7 3.3 3.5 3.4 3.4 2.9 3.2 4.8 4.7 4-87 3.5 3.2 3.3 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.2 2.2 2.9 2.0 -0.7 1-88 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.2 2.9 3.0 3.7 3.4 2.7 2-88 3.7 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.8 2.9 3.5 3.2 2.7 4.4 2.5 3-8S 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.9 3.0 3.5 3.2 2.8 4.0 2.9 3.3 4-88 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.9 3.0 3.4 3.2 2.9 3.8 3.0 3.2 3.0 2*478.3 2,507.7 2*536.5 2*532.3 6.2 2*570.8 2*586.8 2*608.1 2*627.7 1-89 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.0 2.7 3.4 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.0 2-89 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.8 3.1 2.9 2.6 3.2 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.9 3-89 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.6 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 4.1 6.2 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 2*641.0 2*653.7 2*694.IP IN IT IA L QUARTER P- PRELIM IN A RY PREPARED BY FED ERAL R ESER V E BANK OF S T . L O U IS NOVEMBER 29» 1989 15 G R O S S P R IV A T E D O M E S T IC IN V E S T M E N T I N C U R R E N T D O L L A R S (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER 4-84 1-85 -12.9 2-85 -2.9 3-85 -7.0 4-85 -1.2 1-65 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 IN IT IA L QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 B IL L IO N S OF DOLLARS 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-68 4-88 1-89 2-89 639.3 8.4 652.3 -3.9 -14.8 626.7 3.1 0.6 18.7 654.1 1-86 2.7 7.0 6.5 19.1 2-86 -0.5 2.2 0.8 6.5 1.0 -14.7 3-86 -1.2 0.9 -0.6 3.4 -1.3 -10.3 -5.7 4-86 -1.0 0.8 -0.4 2.8 -0.8 -6.8 -2.5 0.7 1-87 0.8 2.6 1.8 4.9 2.3 -1.6 3.2 8.0 15.8 2-87 1.3 3.1 2.4 5.1 3.0 0.0 4.1 7.6 11.2 6.7 3-87 1.7 3.3 2.7 5.1 3.3 0.9 4.3 7.0 9.1 5.9 5.2 4-87 4.2 6.0 5.7 8 .3 7.1 5.4 9.2 12.4 15.6 15.5 20.1 1-88 3.0 4.5 4.1 6.2 4.9 3.2 6.1 8.2 9.7 8.3 8.8 10.7 -10.7 2-88 3.6 5.0 4.7 6.7 5.5 4.1 6.7 8.6 10.0 8.9 9.4 10.8 -0.3 11.2 19.4 683.8 657.2 647.7 648.8 673.1 684.1 692.8 37.1 749.7 728.8 748.4 3-88 4.2 5.5 5.3 7.2 6.2 4.9 7.4 9.1 10.4 9.5 10.1 11.3 3.8 11.9 12.7 4-88 3.3 4.5 4.2 5.8 4.8 3.6 5.6 6.9 7.7 6.6 6.6 6.9 0.4 4.4 1.2 -9.2 1-89 3.6 4.7 4.5 6.0 5.1 4.0 5.9 7.1 7.9 6.9 7.0 7.3 2.1 5.6 3.8 -0.4 2-89 3.6 4.6 4.4 5.8 5.0 3.9 5.6 6.7 7.4 6.5 6.4 6.6 2.2 5.0 3.6 0.7 6.0 2.8 3-89 3.5 4.5 4.3 5.6 4.8 3.8 5.4 6.3 6.9 6.0 5.9 6.0 2.2 4.5 3.3 1.0 4.7 2.5 2.1 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 771.1 752.8 9.2 769.6 775.0 779.0P IN IT IA L QUARTER P- PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS NOVEMBER 29» 1989 G R O S S P R I V A T E D O M E S T I C I N V E S T M E N T I N 1982 D O L L A R S (Compounded A nnual Rates of Change) TERMINAL QUARTER 4-84 1-85 1-85 -12.4 2-85 -2.5 3-85 -7.6 4-85 -1.2 2.9 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 IN IT IA L QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 634.3 8.6 647.5 -5.0 -17.0 618.1 0.2 20.8 648.0 1-86 2.5 6.6 5.9 19.6 2-86 -1.4 1.0 -0.8 5.3 -1.8 -18.5 3-86 -2.7 -1.0 -2.8 1.1 -4.7 -14.5 -10.3 4-86 -3.1 -1.7 -3.4 -0.4 1-87 -0.6 0.9 -0.1 3.0 -0.2 2-87 0.1 1.6 0.7 3.5 3-87 0.9 2.3 1.6 4-87 3.2 4.8 1-88 2.3 3.7 2-88 2.4 3-88 3.0 18.5 676.1 -5.1 -11.8 642.3 625.1 -8.3 -6.2 -4.4 0.8 6.9 0.9 -2.3 2.2 4.2 2.1 -0.4 3.6 4.4 7.1 5.5 3.8 3.2 5.5 3.9 3.7 3.3 5.4 4.2 3.9 5.9 615.2 21.8 646.3 6.8 13.9 6.6 656.7 7.5 12.4 8.0 9.5 8.0 12.1 17.2 15.7 20.6 32.8 2.3 5.6 8.6 11.8 9.4 10.3 10.8 -7.6 3.9 2.4 5.4 7.9 10.4 8.2 8.6 8.4 -2.1 3.7 4.6 3.3 6.1 8.3 10.6 8.8 9.3 9.2 2.3 7.7 11.8 -1.2 -12.7 671.7 721.1 707.0 713.5 733.6 4-88 2.0 3.0 2.6 4.3 3.0 1.7 4.0 5.8 7.4 5.4 5.3 4.4 -1.7 0.4 1-89 2.3 3.3 2.9 4.5 3.3 2.2 4.3 5.9 7.3 5.6 5.5 4.8 0.0 2.0 1.4 -3.4 6.9 2-89 2.1 3.0 2.7 4.1 3.0 1.9 3.9 5.3 6.5 4.9 4.7 4.0 -0.1 1.4 0.9 -2.5 3.0 -0.7 3-89 2.1 3.0 2.7 4.0 3.0 2.0 3.7 5.0 6.1 4.6 4.4 3.8 0.2 1.6 1.1 -1.3 2.8 0.7 2.2 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 709.1 721.1 719.8 723.7P IN IT IA L QUARTER P- PRELIM IN A RY PREPARED BY FEDERAL R ESER V E BANK OF S T . LO U IS NOVEMBER 29» 1989 16 G O V E R N M E N T P U R C H A S E S O F G O O D S A N D S E R V IC E S IN (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) C U R REN T D O LLA R S B IL L IO N S OF TERMINAL QUARTER 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 2-85 10.8 10.0 5-85 15.4 14.7 20.6 4-85 12.1 12.5 14.2 8.1 8 .9 8 .4 8.2 2 .4 1-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 IN IT IA L QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 DOLLARS 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4 -8 8 1-89 2-89 784.4 9.1 1-86 2-86 8 .9 5-86 8 .4 8.6 8.0 4-86 7.8 1-87 7.9 2-87 5-87 801.7 840.2 85 6.7 85 0.5 -5 .0 869.5 8 .4 4 .6 5.0 9.2 7.8 4 .8 5.7 7.2 7.4 7.1 4 .6 5 .8 6.1 4 .6 4 .0 7.5 7.5 5 .2 4 .7 6 .7 5 .8 6.1 8 .5 7.5 7 .2 6.9 5.1 4 .6 6.2 5 .5 5 .6 6.4 4 .4 7.5 7.2 7.0 5 .4 5 .0 6.4 5 .8 6.7 5 .9 4-87 7.4 7.1 1-88 2-88 6.8 6 .4 6.7 6.4 6.2 6.2 6.9 8 8 0.5 5 .2 88 8.9 906.9 916.8 5 .5 5 .2 6.4 5 .9 6.0 6.1 6.6 6.0 6.8 6.5 4 .8 4 .5 5 .5 4 .9 4 .9 5.1 4 .5 4 .2 2 .7 5 .0 4 .7 5 .5 5.1 5.1 5 .5 4 .7 4.7 5.9 4 .4 5.8 5.6 5-88 6.2 5 .9 5 .7 4 .5 4 .2 4 .9 4 .4 4 .4 4-88 7 .2 7.0 6.9 5 .9 5 .7 6.5 6.2 6.4 955.2 7.5 947.5 - 0.8 6.2 2 .7 1.6 2 .7 6.6 6.7 9.4 0.6 11.0 1-89 6 .9 6.7 6.5 5 .6 5 .4 5 .9 6.9 6.7 6.5 5 .7 5 .5 6.1 6.2 5 .8 2-89 5 .9 6.0 6.8 6.1 5 .8 6.0 6.2 6.0 6.2 5-89 6 .7 6.5 6.5 5 .5 5 .5 5 .9 5 .7 5 .7 5 .9 5 .6 5 .8 5 .6 5 .5 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-86 2-86 6.7 6.4 945.7 2 .7 960.1 958.6 - 2 5 .9 5 .8 5 .7 7.4 7.8 12.5 1.8 6.0 5 .9 7.5 7.6 10.5 4 .4 6 .9 6.6 6.6 8 .5 5.8 4 .8 2 .7 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-8 8 1-89 2-8 9 1.01 1.4 1,01 6.0 1,05 5.2 1,040.2P IN IT IA L QUARTER P - PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS NOVEMBER 29» 1989 G O V E R N M E N T P U R C H A S E S O F G O O D S A N D S E R V IC E S I N 1982 D O L L A R S (Compounded A nnual Rates of Change) TERMINAL QUARTER 4-84 1-85 7.5 2-85 6.9 5-85 11.0 8.6 1-85 2-85 3-85 5-86 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-8 8 1-89 2 -8 9 705.5 716.7 19.8 9.0 10.5 5 .8 5 .5 5.1 6.4 6 .5 5-86 5 .8 5 .6 4 -86 5 .8 5 .6 6.2 2.0 5 .4 2.1 5 .4 2.8 1-87 5 .2 4 .9 4 .7 2-87 4 .6 4 .5 5-87 4 .6 4 .5 4-87 4 .5 1-86 2-86 1-86 2-86 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 6.5 15.0 4 -85 4 -85 IN IT IA L QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 749.8 1.6 -1 .5 752.7 -4 .5 744.1 2 .5 9 .5 2.2 5 .8 761.2 2.1 765.2 5.1 5 .8 5.9 5 .8 2 .4 2 .5 4 .4 2 .7 5.0 0.5 4 .0 1.9 2.0 5.5 1.8 1.7 -0 .5 4 .0 2.2 2 .5 5.5 2 .5 2 .4 1.5 776.0 4 .5 4.1 2 .5 2.6 5.6 2 .7 2.8 1-88 2-88 5.5 5.2 2 .9 1.3 1.5 2.1 1.0 0 .9 5.5 5.5 5.0 1.6 2 .5 1.4 1.5 5-88 .3.1 2.8 2 .5 l.l 1.6 1.1 1.7 0 .9 0 .7 2.1 0.1 0.6 0.0 4-88 5.9 5.6 5.4 2 .3 2 .5 5.0 2 .5 2 .4 1.9 1-89 5.4 5 .2 5.0 1.9 1.9 2 .4 2-89 5.5 5.5 5.1 5.2 5 .0 2.8 2.1 1.8 1.8 2.1 5-89 2.1 1.8 1.8 2.1 1.8 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 2 .7 2 .5 1-86 2-86 - 776.6 -0 .9 774.9 1.8 4 .5 2 .7 4 .5 785.5 4 .5 0.2 0.0 - 2.1 1.0 - 0.1 0 .7 0.1 - 1.0 - 0.1 2.2 2 .7 2 .5 1.8 1.4 1.5 - 792.1 -8 .3 775.1 -2 .3 4.1 -2 .7 0.2 1.8 0.8 785.0 -5 .6 5 .4 6.1 3.2 2 .9 775.9 16.7 806.4 1.7 1.9 2 .5 1.9 1.5 5.6 5 .5 6.2 6.0 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.4 1.0 2.6 2 .5 5 .9 1.0 - 0.1 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 5-88 4-8 8 1.5 4-87 1-88 2-88 -5 .5 799.7 5 .4 1.6 1-89 81 0.5 - 2.1 8 0 6 .OP 2-8 9 IN IT IA L QUARTER P- PRELIM IN A RY PREPARED BY FED ERAL R ESER V E BANK OF S T . LO U IS NOVEMBER 29» 1989 17 D IS P O S A B L E P E R S O N A L IN C O M E I N C U R R E N T D O L L A R S (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER 4-84 BILLIONS OF IN IT IA L QUARTER 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 5-87 2-87 1-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 1-85 5.4 2-85 9.1 15.1 5-85 5.5 5.5 -1.5 4-85 6.5 6.6 5.5 8 .6 1-86 6.7 7.0 5.1 8.6 8.5 2-86 6.7 6.9 5.5 7.9 7.5 6.5 5-86 6.1 6.2 4.8 6.5 5.8 4.4 2.4 4-86 6.0 6.0 4.9 6.2 5.7 4.7 5.8 5.5 1-87 6.5 6.6 5.7 7.0 6.7 6.2 6.1 8.0 10.8 2-87 5.8 5.8 4.9 5.9 5.4 4.8 4.4 5.0 4.9 -0.6 5-87 6.2 6.5 5.6 6.5 6.2 5.9 5.7 6.6 7.0 5.2 4-87 6.8 6.9 6.5 7.2 7.0 6.8 6.8 7.7 8.4 7.6 11.9 12.4 6.9 7.6 8.1 7.4 10.5 9.7 7.0 6.9 7.6 8.0 7.4 9.5 8.9 7.1 7.2 7.1 7.8 8.1 7.7 9.4 8.9 7.8 8.2 9.1 8.2 7.9 9.5 8.9 8.1 8.4 9.0 8.9 9.4 8.8 9.5 10.0 10.4 2-89 DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 2 »850.7 2.840.0 2.899.5 2.959.2 1-88 6.8 6.9 6.5 7.2 7.0 2-88 6.8 6.9 6.4 7.2 7.0 6.9 7.0 4-88 1-89 2*764.6 6.8 5-88 4-88 7.1 7.1 7.2 6.6 6.8 5.006.5 5.024.5 5*065.4 5.142.8 5.158.1 11.5 7.5 7.2 7.5 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.9 7.6 7.7 8.5 8 .6 8.5 9.7 7.1 5*225.5 5*519.4 5*576.4 5.455.9 5.511.7 5.587.4 11.9 5.689.5 1-8.9 7.4 7.5 7.1 7.8 7.7 2-89 7.5 7.4 7.1 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.6 8.1 8.4 8.1 9.5 9.0 8.4 8.7 9.1 9.1 9.1 6.5 7.5 7.4 7.1 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.5 8.0 8 .2 8.0 9.0 8.7 8.2 8.4 8.6 8.4 8.5 6.5 6.6 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 5.747.7 5*808.4P IN IT IA L QUARTER P- PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST* LOUIS NOVEMBER 29. 1989 D IS P O S A B L E P E R S O N A L I N C O M E I N 1982 D O L L A R S (Compounded A nnual Rates of Change) TERMINAL QUARTER 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 IN IT IA L QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 BILLION S OF DOLLARS 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 2.509.4 1-85 2.1 2-85 5.5 8.9 2.565.5 2*555.4 5-85 2.1 2.1 -4.5 4-85 2.7 2.8 -0.1 4.4 1-86 5.6 4.0 2.4 5.9 7.4 2-86 4.0 4.4 5.5 6.0 6.8 6.2 5-86 5.2 5.4 2.5 4.0 5.9 2.2 -1.7 4-86 5.0 5.1 2.1 5.5 5.5 1.9 -0.2 1.4 1-87 5.1 5.2 2.4 5.6 5.4 2.4 1.2 2.7 4.0 2-87 2.1 2.2 1.5 2.2 1.8 0.7 -0.6 -0.2 -1.0 -5.8 5-87 2.6 2.6 1.9 2.7 2.5 1.7 0.8 1.5 1.5 0.2 6.7 4-87 5.0 5.1 2.5 5.5 5.1 2.5 1.9 2.7 5.0 2.7 7.2 2.562.8 2*609.2 2*648.6 2*657.5 2*646.2 2*672.5 2*652.5 2*675.6 2*726.2 7.8 2*757.2 1-88 5.1 5.2 2.7 5.4 5.5 2.8 2.5 5.0 5.5 5.2 6.4 6.2 4.6 2-88 5.1 5.1 2.7 5.5 5.2 2.7 2.5 2.9 5.2 5.0 5.5 4.9 5.5 2.4 5-88 5.2 5.2 2.8 5.4 5.4 5.0 2.6 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.5 4.9 5.9 5.6 4.9 4-88 5.2 5.5 2.9 5.5 5.4 5.1 2.8 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.1 4.8 4.0 5.8 4.6 4.5 1-89 5.4 5.5 5.2 5.7 5.7 5.4 5.1 5.6 5.9 5.8 5.5 5.1 4.5 4.5 5.2 5.4 6.6 2-89 5.5 5.4 5.0 5.5 5.5 5.2 2.9 5.4 5.6 5.5 4.7 4.5 5.9 5.8 4.1 5.9 5.7 0.8 5-89 5.4 5.4 5.1 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.1 5.5 5.7 5.6 4.7 4.5 4.0 5.9 4.2 4.1 4.0 2.7 4.7 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 2*775.5 2*806.4 2.855.9 2.881.7 2.887.6 2.9 2 0.6P IN ITIAL QUARTER P- PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 18 C O R P O R A T E P R O F IT S A F T E R T A X E S (C o m p o u n d e d A n n n a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) TERM INAL B IL L IO N S OF DOLLARS IN IT IA L QUARTER q u a r ter 4-84 1-85 2-85 1-85 -59.4 2-85 -20.4 4.6 5-85 -9.5 10.7 17.1 15.7 18.5 4-85 5-85 1-86 2-86 an n ual r a t e s 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 1-88 4-87 2-88 5-8» 4-88 1-89 2-89 122.8 124.2 129.2 4-85 -2.9 1—86 -15.4 -8.1 -11.9 -25.6 -51.4 2-86 -15.9 -7.6 -10.5 -18.1 -52.4 5-86 -9.9 -5.8 -5.4 -10.5 -18.6 4-86 -6.8 -0.8 -1.7 1-87 -2.5 5.4 5.5 1.1 2-87 0.1 5.8 5.9 4.4 2.1 5-87 2.5 7.8 8.2 7.1 5.4 4-87 2.5 7.5 7.5 6.5 4.9 1-88 4.4 9.2 9.6 8 .9 7.7 2-88 5.5 9.9 10.4 9.8 8.8 19.0 5-88 6.0 10.5 10.8 10.5 9.4 18.7 4-88 6.0 10.0 10.4 9.9 9.1 17.4 1-89 5.5 9.0 9.5 8.8 8.0 15.4 2-89 5.5 6.6 6.7 6.1 5.1 5-89 1.5 4.5 4.5 5.7 2.7 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 155.2 19.9 112.9 -5.9 5.4 111.2 18.0 115.9 -5.1 -10.5 9.7 18.4 18.8 -2.5 16.4 24.9 28.5 18.4 25.4 27.9 52.7 26.7 19.9 25.9 28.0 51.2 27.4 28.1 17.1 21.5 22.2 25.1 18.1 14.1 1.6 19.0 25.1 25.9 25.0 21.7 20.1 16.5 55.0 22.5 25.2 25.9 21.1 19.7 17.1 25.6 18.7 21.8 22.2 22.7 20.2 19.0 16.8 22.5 17.5 16.0 20.1 20.5 20.5 18.0 16.6 14.5 17.9 15.5 10.7 5.7 17.6 17.5 17.4 14.9 15.4 11.1 15.1 8.6 5.4 0.5 11.6 15.2 12.7 12.1 9.5 7.5 4.8 5.4 0.6 -5.5 8.4 9.5 8 .9 8.0 5.3 5.2 0.4 0.2 -4.4 -8.4 -15.7 -19.5 -25.8 -25.8 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 121.0 59.1 151.4 139.4 148.3 148.9 159.9 166.9 173.2 175.6 -4.5 175.6 -9.2 -15.8 -25.8 161.1 5-88 4-88 1-89 149.5P 2-89 IN IT IA L QUARTER P- PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS NOVEMBER 29» 1989 H IS T O R IC A L N A T IO N A L E s tim a te s o f N IP A C u rre n t J u ly t a b le s 1986, Ju ly N a t io n a l 1929 -8 2 : F o r an d W e a lt h D e p a rtm e n t th e D a ta 1987 an d E s tim a te s In c o m e an d S t a t is t ic a l fu r th e r o f fo r in a re 1983, Ju ly fo r PRO D UCT th e OF ACCOUNTS r e g u la r p u b lis h e d 1984 1988 N IP A P ro d u c t and S u rv e y s e r ie s A c c o u n ts DATA q u a r t e r ly in th e 1985 p r e s e n t a t io n J u ly a re 1989 S u rv e y p u b lis h e d o f C u rre n t B u s in e s s , fo r 1929-82 a re o f th e in p u b lis h e d U n it e d S t a t e s . to N a t io n a l o f th e in T a b le s . in fo r m a tio n D iv is io n AND s e r ie s 1 9 8 6 - 8 9 :1 1 B u s in e s s . r e s p e c t iv e ly . The fo r fo r IN C O M E SO URCES (B E - 5 4 ), C o m m e rce , an d p r ic e s , B u re a u W a s h in g to n , o f D .C . 19 w r it e E c o n o m ic 20230. th e A n a ly s is , U .S . In c o m e INVENTORIES COMPARED WITH M A N U F A C T U R IN G SEASONALLY AN D MONTHLY SALES TR A D E ADJUSTED 72 72 68 68 1 .6 4 64 1 .6 0 60 56 56 52 52 I .4 8 48 44 44 40 40 36 36 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 SOURCE: «BEGINNING IN SHADED AREAS LATEST DATA 1982, I NV E NTORY REPRESENT PLOTTEDs DATA R E F L E C T PERIODS SEPTEMBER OF BUSINESS CHANGES IN E S T I M A T I O N 1986 1987 U.S.DEPARTMENT 1988 1989 OF COMMERCE PROCEDURES. RECESSIONS. PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 2 0
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