Full text of National Economic Trends : December 1978
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nnnonH L Economic PREPARED Month Ending: BY FEDERAL November 30, 1978 RESERVE BANK trcdds OF ST. LOUIS Released: December 29, 1978 The expansion In economic activity appears to have accelerated in recent months. From September to November, industrial production increased at a 7.5 percent annual rate following a rise of 6.6 percent over the prior year. Retail sales growth since September surged to a 22 percent rate, substantially above the 11.7 percent increase from September 1977 to September 1978. Personal income growth has also been faster since September, expanding at a 14.5 percent rate after a 12.1 percent rise for the year ending in September. The rapid pace of expansion has raised the Federal Reserve Board capacity utilization rate for manufacturing to 85.7 percent in November, compared to 82.9 percent a year earlier. The current rate of utilization has been exceeded in this decade only during the period from late 1972 through mid-1974. During 1973, the utilization rate peaked at an annual average rate of 87.5 percent. The stock of inventories relative to output and sales is low compared to historical experience. The ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to monthly sales fell to 1.39 in October, the lowest level in twenty-seven years. Similarly, the constant dollar ratio of inventories to business final sales declined to .268 in the third quarter of this year, equaling the ratio in the fourth quarter of 1977. Except for the end of 1965 and beginning of 1966, when the ratio was about .265, this is the lowest level of inventory stocks relative to sales in the post-World War II period. Employment growth at a 5.6 percent rate in the most recent two months is also very rapid. This rate of increase in civilian employment exceeded the 4.1 percent rise in the prior year and resulted in an Increase of 867 thousand jobs in two months. The pace of employment growth has reduced the unemployment rate from 6.7 percent in November 1977 to 5.8 percent in November 1978. The rate of increase of prices has also accelerated. From September to November, producer prices of industrial commodities rose at a 10.9 percent rate, greater than the rapid increase over the prior year of 7.3 percent. Producer prices for all commodities rose at a 12.8 percent rate over the last two months after increasing 8.7 percent in the prior year. Consumer price increases have also accelerated slightly from the 8.2 percent rise for the year ending in September 1978, to an 8.4 percent rate of increase over the last two months. ________ I Q . T A l ÇIVatAN ^ H P ^ Q Y H Ç f ^ T _____ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL MONTH THUUSANOS OF PERSONS IN I T I AL MONTH H -7 1 5-77 5.3 6-77 5.3 5—77 6 -7 7 7-77 8-77 9 - 7 7 10- 77 11 -7 7 12 -77 2-7 8 1-78 3-78 4 -7 8 5-78 6-76 7-78 8-7 8 9-76 90*267 5.2 90 »646 7 -7 7 3 .2 2.2 -0 .8 8-7 7 3 .1 2.4 1 .0 2.7 90*588 9 0 ,7 9 3 4 -» 3 .3 2.8 2.0 3 .4 4 .0 iò -7 > 3*4 3.0 2.5 3.6 4 .0 4.0 11 -77 4.5 4 .4 4 .2 5.5 6.4 7.7 11.5 i2 -n 4 .6 4.5 4 .4 5 .4 6.1 6.8 8 .3 5 .3 i-Té 4.5 4 .4 4.3 5 .1 5 .6 6.0 6.7 4.4 3.6 2 - 76 4.2 4.1 3.9 4.6 4 .9 5 .1 5.4 3 .5 2.6 1.6 3-70 4.1 4 .0 3 .9 4.5 4 .7 4 .8 5 .0 3.5 2.9 2.5 3.4 4—78 4 .4 4.3 4.2 4 .8 5.0 5.2 5 .4 4 .2 3 .9 4.0 5.3 5 -7 8 4 .3 4.3 4 .2 4 .7 4.9 5.0 5.2 4.2 3 .9 4.0 4 .9 5.6 4.1 6—78 4 .7 4.6 4.6 5.1 5.3 5.5 5 .7 4.9 4.8 5.1 6.0 6.8 6.7 9 .4 7 -7 6 4 .0 3.9 3 .8 4 .2 4.4 4 .4 4 .5 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.7 3.8 2.7 2.0 -4 .9 8-78 3 .9 3.8 3.7 4. 1 4.2 4.2 4.2 3.4 3.2 3. 2 3 .4 3.4 2.5 2 .0 -1 .5 2.0 9^78 3.9 3.8 3.7 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.2 3.5 3.3 3. 2 3.5 3.5 2.6 2 .4 0.2 2.8 3.7 10-78 3.9 3.8 3 .7 4.0 4.1 4.2 4 .2 3.5 3.4 3. 3 3.6 3.6 3.0 2.8 1. 2 3.3 3 .9 4.2 11-78 4. 1 4.0 3 .9 4.2 4.3 4 .4 4 .4 3.8 3.7 3. 7 3.9 4.0 3.6 3.5 2.3 4.2 5.0 5.6 5-77 6 -7 7 7-77 9-77 9 - 7 7 1 0 - 7 7 11 -7 7 1 2 -7 7 1-78 2-7 8 3-78 4-78 5-78 6-78 7-78 8-7 8 4-7 7 1 0 -7 8 9 1 ,0 8 8 91,383 9 2 ,2 1 4 9 2 ,6 0 9 92 ,8 8 1 99*003 9 3 ,2 6 6 7 .1 93*801 9 4 ,1 1 2 ♦4*819 94*425 94,582 94 ,8 6 8 95 ,1 9 2 7.1 9 5 ,7 3 5 9 - 7 8 1 0 -7 8 I N I T I A L MONTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK. OF S T . DECEMBER 8 , 1978 LOUIS PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL MONTH I N I T I A L MONTH 4-77 5-77 5-77 4.2 6-77 4.7 5.1 7-77 4.0 3.9 6-77 7-7 7 8-77 9-7 7 10 -7 7 1 1 - 7 7 :12-77 1-78 2 -7 8 THOUSANDS OF PERSONS 3—78 4-78 5 -7 8 6-7 8 7- 7 8 8-78 9 - 7 8 10—7* 81 ,9 3 4 8 2 ,2 77 2 .6 82, 45 5 8-77 3.5 3 .3 2.4 2 .2 9-7 7 3.9 3.9 3.4 3.8 5.5 8 2 ,6 03 82 ,9 73 10 -7 7 3.8 3.7 3 .4 3.7 4.4 3.3 11 -7 7 4.0 4.0 3.8 4 .0 4 .7 4 .2 5.2 12 -7 7 3.6 3 .8 3.5 3 .7 4 .1 3.6 3 .8 2.5 1 -7 8 3.6 3.6 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.3 3 .3 2.3 83*199 83 ,5 4 9 8 3 ,7 1 9 83 ,87 1 2.2 2 -7 8 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.6 3 .9 3.6 3.6 3.1 3 .4 4.6 3-78 4 .1 4 .1 4 .0 4 .2 4 .4 4 .3 4 .5 4 .3 4 .9 6.3 7.9 4-78 4 .6 4 .6 4 .6 4 .8 5.2 5*1 5.4 5.5 6 .2 7.6 9.1 10.3 84 ,1 88 8 4 ,7 26 8 5 ,4 18 5 -7 8 4.5 4.5 4*4 4 .6 4 .9 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.5 6 .4 7.0 6 .5 2*8 6-78 4.5 4 .6 4.5 4 .7 4.9 4 .9 5.1 5.1 5.5 6.2 6 .6 6.1 4.1 5 .4 7 -7 8 4 .3 4 .3 4.2 4 .3 4 .5 4 .4 4 .6 4 .5 4.8 5 .2 5.3 4 .7 2.9 2 .9 4.7 4 .7 8 5 ,6 1 8 85*996 0*5 86 .03 3 8 -7 8 4.1 4. 1 4 .0 4 .1 4.3 4 .2 4.3 4 .2 4 .4 4 .1 2.6 2.5 1 .1 1.6 9-78 3 .9 3 .8 3.8 3.8 4.0 3.8 3 .9 3 .8 3 .9 4*1 4*1 3*4 2. 1 1.9 0 .8 0.9 0.2 10 -78 4.0 4.0 3.9 4.0 4.1 4*0 4 .0 3.9 4 .1 4.3 4.3 3.8 2.7 2 .7 2.0 2*5 2.9 5 .8 U -7 8 4 .1 4.1 4.0 4.1 4 .3 4.2 4 .2 4.2 4 .3 4 .5 4.5 4.1 3.3 3 .3 2*9 3.5 4.2 6* 2 4-77 5-7 7 6-77 7-77 8-7 7 9 - 7 7 1 0 -7 7 1 1 -7 7 12 -7 7 1-7 8 2 -7 8 3 -7 8 4 -7 8 5 -7 8 6-7 8 7 -7 8 8 -78 8 6 ,1 4 9 96 ,1 6 3 8 6 « 56 7 P 6 .7 87 .034P 9 - 7 8 1 0 -7 8 I N I T I A L MONTH P - PRELIMINARY PUEPAREO BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS DECEMBER 8 , 1978 2 EMPLOYMENT RATIO SCALE MILLIONS 1970 OF RATIO PERSONS 1971 seasonally 1972 1973 MILLIONS ADJ US TED 1974 1975 1976 SOURCEt PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES Of CHANCE FOR P E R IO O S LATEST OATA PLOTTED» 1977 OF 1978 U .S.D EP AR TM EN T OF LABOR IN D IC A T E D . NOVEMBER P R E L IM IN A R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST . UNEMPLOYMENT SEASONALLY PERCENT SCALE PERSONS L O U IS RATE ADJUSTED PERCENT 10. 0 9. 9.0 8. 8.0 7. 7.0 6. 6.0 5. 5.0 4. 4 .0 3. 3.0 2. 2.0 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 SOURCEt PERCENT OF C I V I L I A N LATEST OATA PLOTTED« U .S . 1977 1978 DEPARTMENT Of LABOR LABOR FORCE NOVEMBER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RE SE RV E BANK Of ST . 3 L O U IS CONSUMER PRICE I N D E X , SEASONALLY AD JU S TE D * COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RAT ES OF CHANGE T ERMI NAL MONTH INITIAL 4-77 5-77 6.9 6-77 6.5 5-77 6-77 7-77 8-77 9-77 10-77 11-77 12-77 1 9 6 7 « 100 MONTH 2-78 1-78 3-78 4-78 5-78 6-78 7-78 100.9 5.7 5. 1 4.0 5.4 5.0 4.4 4.7 9-77 5.3 4.9 4.5 4.7 10-77 5.1 4.7 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.0 11-77 5.1 4.8 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.7 12-77 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.3 5.3 1-78 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.7 5.9 6.2 6.9 7.7 \ 10.1 2-78 5.9 5.8 5.7 6.0 6.2 6.5 7.2 7.8 9.0 102.4 103. 1 4.7 103.0 104.4 5.3 105. 2 106.0 r 107.5 8.0 100.7 3-78 6.3 6» 2 6,? 6,5 6,7 7,1 7.7 8,3 9.3 9.0 10.0 4-78 *f6 6,6 6.6 6*9 7*2 7.6 8*2 8.8 9,6 9.5 10.3 10.6 5-78 7t Q 7.0 7,1 7.4 7,7 8.1 8.7 9.3 10,1 10,1 10.8 11,2 11.9 7.3 7.4 7.7 8.0 B» 4 9.0 9,5 10,2 10.3 10.9 11.2 11.5 11.1 7,3 7,3 7,6 7*9 8,2 8 *7 9.1 9.7 9.6 9.9 9.9 9,7 8.7 6^3^\ 1 CD 10-78 Ib i .0 7-77 7 r* 9-70 6. 1 8-77 6-78 8-78 190.2 191.8 ^9 .1% 193.6 195.3 196.3 8-78 7.2 7,2 7.3 7.6 7.8 8.1 8.5 8.9 9.3 9.2 9.4 9.3 9.0 8.1 6.6 6.9 9-78 7.3 7.3 7.4 7,7 7,9 8.2 8.5 8.9 9.3 9,2 9.4 9.2 9.0 8.3 7.4 7.9 197.4 e / 9 V\ 198.8 10-78 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.3 8.7 9.0 9,4 9.3 9.4 9.* 9.2 8,6 8,0 8.6 9.5 10, I 11-78 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.5 8.8 9.1 9.0 9.1 9.0 8.8 8,3 7.8 8.2 0.6 8.4 4-77 5-77 6-77 7-77 0-77 9-77 10-77 11-77 12-77 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 5-78 6-78 7-78 8-70 9-70 INITIAL 200.4 6 , o |I 201.5 10-78 MONTH » C P I - W FOR UKBAN WAGE EARNERS ANO CLERICAL WORKERS REVISED A$ OF J A N , 1978 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . DECEMBER 2 2 , 1978 LOUIS PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, A I L COHMOOITIES - SEASONALLY ADJUSTED _________________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE_________________ TERMINAL__________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L MONTH____________ _______________________________________________________1967 « MONTH 4-7 7 5-77 6-7 7 7-7 7 8-77 9 - 7 7 1 0 -7 7 1 1 - 7 7 12 - 7 7 5-78 6-7 8 7 -7 8 8-78 1-7 8 2-78 3 -7 8 4 - 7 8 9 -7 8 10 -7 8 5-7 7 5.1 100 195.1 6-77 -0 .3 -5 ,4 7-77 0.0 —2*4 0.6 8—77 0.3 -1* 2 0.9 m ,2 1.2 19A. 5 9-7 7 1 .1 0.2 2.1 2.8 4 .4 10 -7 7 2*0 1.4 3,1 4 ,0 5.4 6.3 11 -7 7 2 .9 2.6 4,3 5,2 6.5 7 .6 8 .9 1 2 -7 7 3*2 2.9 4.4 5*1 6.1 6.7 6.9 5.0 1-7 B 4.1 3.9 5,4 6.2 7 .2 7 .9 8 ,4 8.2 2-78 4 .9 4.9 6 ,2 7 .1 8.1 8.8 9.5 9.6 12 .1 12 .7 20 2.2 > -7 8 5*5 5*6 6*9 7 .7 8.6 9 .3 9.9 10*2 12 .0 12,3 11*9 204. 1 4-7® 6.2 6 .3 7.6 ®. 4 9.3 10.0 1 0 .7 11.0 1 2 .6 13 .0 13 .1 14.4 5 -7 8 6*4 6*5 7*7 8 .4 9*2 9*§ 10*3 1 0 .6 1 1 .8 11.8 11 .5 11.4 6 -7 8 6 .5 6*7 7.7 8 .4 9 .1 9.7 10 .1 10.3 11 .2 11.1 10 .7 1 0 .4 8.4 8 .4 7-7® 6*4 6.5 7 .4 ® .o 8 .7 9.1 9 .4 9 .5 10.1 9.9 9.4 8.8 7.0 6 .2 4.1 8 -7 8 6*2 6*2 7,1 7 ,6 ® *2 8 .5 8 .7 8 .7 9.2 8.9 8.3 7 .6 5 .9 5.1 3.5 195.2 19fr.2 197.6 . ! 190 .4 \ 11.4 200 .2 2 0 6 .4 ^ < 9 .9 % 207*8 209 .2 20 9. 9 R 2 .9 21 0.4 9-78 6*4 6*5 7.3 7 .8 8*3 8.7 8.9 8.9 9 .3 9.0 8.5 8 .0 6,8 6.3 5.7 6.5 10.1 10—7® 7.0 7.1 7.9 8.4 9 .0 9.3 9 .6 9.6 10 .1 1 0 .0 9.6 9 .3 8 .5 8.5 8.6 10.1 13.9 11-78 7*0 7.2 7 .9 9.4 ft *9 9*2 9.5 9 .5 9 ,9 9.8 9.5 9.2 8.4 8 .4 8.5 9.6 11.9 4-7 7 5 -77 6-77 7-77 8-7 7 9-7 7 10 -7 7 1 1 - 7 7 1 2 -7 7 1-78 2-7 8 3-78 4-78 5- 7 8 6-78 7 -7 8 8-78 1 7 .7 ^ ^ 9 -7 8 2 1 5.Û 10 -78 I N I T I A L MONTH R-RFVISED 4 PREPARED BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS DECEMBER 7 . 1978 RATIO PRICES SCALE ll£ r ! - U £ £ M -* MOTE. RATIO FOR ALL URBAN CONSUM ERS < ME» S t R I E S B E C IM N IN « JANUARY 1 9 7 » » FOR URBAN WA6E E A R N E R S AMO C L E R IC A L WORKERS ( R E V IS E D S E R IE S 8ECINBM IHC JANU ARY C f l , SE A SO N A L LY A D JU S T E D . ( OLD S E R I E S ) TERM I MATEO B E C IM N IM C JANUARY 1978 P E R C E N T A C E S ARE ANNUAL R A T E S Of CH AN C E-FO R P E R IO D S LATEST DATA P LO TT E D . scale P R OD UC E R 1967-100 IM O IC A T E O . PRICES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED P ER C ENT A C E S ARE AMMUAL R A T E S OF CHANGE FOR P E R IO D S L A T E ST DATA P LO T T E D . 1978) NOVEMBER P RE P A RE D BY FE D E R A L ratio SCALE R E S E R V E BANK OF S T . L O U IS RATIO SCALE 1967-100 IM 6 IC A T E 0 . MOVEM®ER P R E P A R E D BY FE D E R A L 5 R E S E R V E BANK OF S T . L O U IS PROOUCER PRICE I N D E X , I N D U S T R I A L COMMO DITIES - SEAS ONA LLY A D J U S T E D ___________ __________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES Of CHANGE_________________________ I ^ INAL I N I T I A L HQNTH 4—77 5-77 . H 7 7-7 7 0-77 9 - 7 7 10 -77 11 -7 7 12-77 3-7 7 6 .4 6 -7 7 5.1 3.8 7 -7 7 5.9 5 .7 7.7 8 -7 7 6.0 5.9 7.0 6.3 6.0 6,7 6 .3 6.3 6.5 6,1 5.9 5.6 5 .9 5.5 5 .2 4.6 3 .7 9-77 6.1 10-77 6.0 1 1- 77 5.7 1-7 8 2-7 8 196 7 * 1QQ 3-7 8 4-7 8 5 -7 8 6 -7 8 a - 78 9 -7 8 10-78 194.0 5 .5 194. 6 195 .8 196 .8 197.8 198.7 199 .3 1 2- 77 5.7 5.6 5.9 5.6 5.4 5.2 4 .9 6.2 1-78 6.2 6.2 6 .5 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.6 8.1 2-78 6.3 6 .3 6 .6 6.5 6.5 6 .6 6.8 7 .8 ¿00.3 10 ,0 \ 20 1 .9 8 .7 7.4" ¿ 0 3. 1 3 -7 8 6.3 6.3 6 .6 6.4 6.4 6.5 6 .6 7.4 7 .8 6.7 6. 4 -7 8 6.6 6.7 6 .9 6 .9 6.9 7.0 7 .3 8.0 8 .5 8 .0 8 .2 5 -7 8 6.8 6 .8 7 .1 7.0 7 .1 7.2 7.4 8.1 8.5 8.1 8.3 9.5 8 .5 "^ 8 . 6 % 6- 7 8 6t* 7“ 79 7-78 20 4.1 io Ti> \ 205 .8 6 .9 7 *2 7.2 7,2 7 .3 7.6 8.1 8.5 8.2 8.3 9. 1 8.4 7 ,0 7.2 7,2 7,3 7.* 7 .6 8.1 8.4 8.1 8 .2 8.8 8 .2 20 7 . 2 208 . 6 8 .1 7 .7 ' 2 0 9 .9 R 8- 7 8 7*0 7,0 7*2 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 8 .0 8.2 7.9 8.0 8 .4 7.9 7 .7 7 .4 7 .1 ' 9 -7 8 7.0 7.0 7,2 7.2 7 ,2 7.3 7.5 7 .9 8.1 7 .8 7.9 8.2 7 .7 7.6 7.3 7.1 10-79 7.3 7 .3 7 .6 7 .6 7.7 7 .8 8.0 8 .3 8.6 8.4 8 .5 8.9 8.6 8.7 8.7 9. 1 10 .1 13. 2 11-78 7.4 7.4 7.6 7 .6 7.7 7.0 8 .0 8 .4 8.6 8.4 8 .6 8.9 8 .6 8 .7 8.7 9.0 9.6 10 .9 4-77 5-7 7 6-7 7 7-77 8-77 9-77 10 -77 1 1 -7 7 12 -77 1-78 2- 7 8 3 -7 8 4-78 5 -7 8 6-78 7 -7 8 8 -7 8 INITIAL 7.0 214 .5 0/7^ 2 1 6. 0 9 - 7 8 10-7 8 MONTH PRODUCER P R I C E I N D E X , FARH PRODUCT S L PROCESSED fOOOS 4 FEEDS - S E A S . A D J . _____________________________COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RAT ES Of CHANQE______________________________ I N I T I A L MONTH TERMINAL MONTH 4-7 7 5-77 5-77 6 -7 7 7-77 8-77 9 - 7 7 1 0 -7 7 1 1 -7 7 12 -7 7 1-78 2-7 8 1967 * 100 3- 7 8 4 -7 8 5-7 8 6-78 7-78 8-78 9-78 10- 78 196 .6 0.0 6-77 -1 6 .4 -3 0 ,2 19 0. 8 7 -7 7 -1 9 ,2 -2 7 ,4 -2 4 .4 18 6 .4 18 4,2 8-77 -1 7 .8 -2 2 .9 -1 9 .0 -1 3 .3 9-77 -1 5 .5 -1 9 ,0 -1 4 .8 -9 .6 -5 .7 -9 .3 -3 .6 1.6 9.6 10 -77 -1 1 ,7 -1 3 ,9 183.3 184.7 11-7 7 —6 , 5 -7 .5 -2 .1 4.4 11 .1 20 .6 32.6 1 2- 77 -5 .3 —6 . 0 -1 .3 4.2 9.1 1 4 .5 17.0 1-78 -3 .2 -3 .6 1.0 6.0 1 0 .3 14.7 16.5 9,2 1 5 .6 2-78 0.0 0.0 4 .6 9.6 13 .9 18.3 20.6 16,8 24,3 189.1 3.2 .... 18 9. 6 19 1.9 33 .7 1 9 6. 6 3- 7 8 2,8 3.1 7 .6 12 .5 1 6 .7 21.0 23.4 21,2 27,8 34 ,4 35 .2 4-78 4 .9 5 .3 9 .8 14.4 ie .4 22 .4 24.6 2 3 ,1 28 .6 33 ,3 33 .1 3 1 .1 5-7 8 5.0 5 .4 9 .4 13 .5 17,0 20 .2 21.8 20,1 23.7 25,9 2 3 .4 1 7 .9 \ i4 .tr/ o 6 .0 ^ 1 2 0 1 .6 206.2 6 -7 8 5,5 5.9 9 .7 13 .5 1 6 .6 19*3 20.6 19 .0 21.9 23 .2 2 0 .7 16 .2 9.4 7 -7 8 4 .3 4.6 8.0 1 1 .2 13 .8 15.9 16.6 1 4 .8 16.5 16 .7 13 .6 8.7 2 .2 8 -7 8 3.3 3.5 6 .5 9 .3 1 1 .5 13.2 1 3 .5 1 1 .6 1 2 .7 12.3 9.0 4.5 -1 .3 -3 .6 9 -7 8 4 .3 4 .5 7 .4 10 .1 12.2 1 3 .8 1 4 .2 1 2 .5 13*6 13.3 10.7 7. 1 2.8 2 .0 14 .7 15.9 20 7. 2 1 2 ^ \ 207.3 R 0 .3 -1 0 .9 V. -1 0 .9 -1 1 .0 -1.3 . 21.1 205.3 208.6 10-78 5 -9 6. 3 9.1 11 .a 1 3 .9 15.6 16.1 1 5.9 13.9 1 1. 1 8.1 8 .5 7 .5 14.4 29.7 39 .0 11 -78 5.9 6.2 8,9 11.4 13 .3 14 .7 1 5 .2 14 .8 14 .7 1 2 .8 1 0 .3 7 .6 7 .9 6.9 1 1 .9 2 0 .7 20 4 -7 7 5 -7 7 6 -7 7 7 -7 7 8-7 7 9 - 7 7 1 0 -7 7 1 1 -7 7 12 - 7 7 1-78 2-78 3-78 4 -7 8 5 -7 8 6-70 7-78 8-78 9 -7 8 4*^] 10-7 8 I N I T I A L MONTH R- REVI SED PREPARED BY fED6RAL RESERVE BANK O f S T . LOUIS DECEMBER 7 , 1978 6 INDUSTRIAL RAT I 0 PRODUCTION SCALE RAT I 0 1967-100 SEASONALLY 1970 1971 1972 PERCENTAGES ARE LATEST PLOTTED« DATA A N NU A L RATES 1973 OF NOVEMBER CHANCE 1974 F OR SCALE 1967-100 ADJUSTED 1975 PERIODS 1976 1977 1978 IN D IC A T ED . P R ELIM INA R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOU IS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION _________________________ CONFOUNDED ANNUAL KATES OF CHANGE___________ TERMINAL___________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L HONTH_______________________________ ___________________________________ 1967 » 100 NOn TH 4-7 7 5-77 6-77 3-78 4-7 8 7-77 8-7 7 9 - 7 7 1 0 - 7 7 11 -7 7 12 -7 7 1-7 8 2 -7 8 6-78 5 -7 8 7-78 8-78 9 - 7 8 10 - 7 8 5-7 7 8*2 6-7 7 7.7 7.2 7-7 7 7 .9 7 .7 8.1 8-7 7 *.5 3.3 1.3 -5 .1 9-7 7 4*3 3.3 2 .0 -0 .9 3.5 10 - 7 7 4 .2 3 .4 2.4 0 .6 3.5 3.5 137.0 137.8 138 .7 138.1 13 8.5 13 8.9 11-77 4.1 3 .4 2.6 1.3 3.5 3.5 3.5 1 2 -7 7 4 .0 3.4 2.8 1.7 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 1-76 2 .7 2.0 1. 2 0.1 1.2 0 .7 -0 .3 -2 .1 -7 .5 2 -7 8 2.7 2.1 1.5 0.6 1.6 1.2 0.6 -0 .3 -2 .1 3.5 3 -7 8 3.9 3.4 3.0 2 .4 3.5 3.5 3 .5 3.5 3.5 9.4 15 .7 4-7 8 5 .2 4 .9 4 .7 4 .3 5.6 5.9 6 .3 6 .9 7.7 13.3 18 .5 21.4 5-7 8 5.3 5.0 4.8 4 .5 5 .6 5 .9 6.2 6.7 7 .4 11 .4 14 .2 13.5 6.0 6-78 5 .5 5 .3 5.2 4 .9 5 .9 6 .2 6.5 7.0 7.6 10.9 12.8 11.8 7 .3 8.7 7 -7 8 5.8 5 .7 5.5 5 .3 6.3 6.6 7.0 7.4 8.0 10 .8 12 .3 11 .5 8.3 9.5 10.4 7.5 8.0 10 .5 11 .7 10 .9 8.4 9.2 9.5 8.5 139 .3 13 9. 7 138.8 139.2 14 0. 9 143 .2 1 4 3. 9 144 .9 146.1 8-78 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.6 6.5 6.8 7.1 9-7 8 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.5 6.4 6.6 6.9 7 .3 7.7 9 .8 10 .7 9 .9 7.7 8.1 8.0 6 .8 5 .0 10-78 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.6 6 .4 6*6 6.9 7 .2 7.6 9.4 10.2 9 .4 7.5 7.8 7.6 6.7 5.8 6.7 11- 78 6.1 6 .0 5.9 5.8 6.6 6.8 7 .0 7.3 7.7 9.3 10.0 9.3 7.7 7 .9 7.8 7.1 6.7 7.5 4 -7 7 5-77 6 —77 7-7 7 8-77 9 - 7 7 1 0 -7 7 1 1 -7 7 1 2 -7 7 1-7* 2 -7 8 5^78 4 -7 « 5-78 6-78 147.1 7-78 “ 1-7 8 14 7.7 1 4 8 . 5P 8 .4 1 4 9 . 5P * - 7 8 1 6 -7 8 "F- « E L WWA I V PREFARED BV FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS DECEMBER 15» 1976 7 PERSONAL RATIO SCALE MO N T H L Y T OT AL S INCOME AT A NNUA L 300RCE. PERCENTAGES ARE LATEST PLO T TE Ot DATA AMMUAL RATES OF NOVEMBER C H A N GE F OR PERIOOS RATIO RATES U.S. DE PART MEN T OF SCALE C O M ME R CE IN DICATED . P R ELIM IN A R Y PREPARED BY F EO ER AL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LO U IS _____________________________________________________________________________ PEftSQMAL 1M3WE______________________________________________________________________ COMPOUNOEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE _________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________________________________ ____________________________BILL!Q M S QF TERMINAL I N I T I A L MONTH OOLLARS ___ ______ _______ ____ ___ ANNUAL RATES HQWTH_____________________________________________________________________ _____ _______________ _________ ___ __ ______ ________— 7 -7 7 8 -7 7 4 -7 7 5 -7 7 6 -7 7 9—77 1 0 -7 7 1 1 -7 7 1 2 -7 7 3 -7 8 6 -7 8 1-7 8 7 -7 8 8 -7 8 2 -7 8 4 -7 8 5 -7 8 9 -7 8 1 0 -7 8 5 -7 7 6 .8 6 -7 7 7 .2 7 5 7 -7 7 9 .2 10 5 1 3 .5 • -7 7 8 .4 9 9 .6 1*508.3 I ,517.4 1,533.5 5 .8 1*540.7 9 -7 7 9*3 10 0 1 0 .8 9 .5 1 3 .4 1 0 -7 7 1 0 .5 11 3 1 2 .3 1 1 .8 1 5 .0 11- r * 1 2 .3 1 2 .0 1 4 .2 1 4 .6 1 2 .6 1 2 .5 1 2 .3 1 3 .9 1 4 .1 1 2 .9 1 0 .8 11 5 1 2 -7 7 1 1 .1 11 7 1*556.9 1 6 .6 1*577.0 1*592.7 1 3 .2 I *609.2 1 -7 * 1 0 .4 10 • 1 1 .3 1 1 .0 1 2 .1 1 1 .7 1 0 .1 8 .9 4 .8 2 -7 « 1 0 .1 10 4 1 0 .8 1 0 .4 1 1 .2 1 0 .8 9 .4 8 .4 6.0 7 .3 3 -7 1 1 0 .7 11 1 1 1 .5 1 1 .2 1 2 .0 1 1 .8 1 0 .9 1 0 .4 9 .5 1 2 .0 4 -7 » 1 1 .3 11 7 1 2 .1 12.0 1 2 .8 1 2 .7 1 2 .1 1 1 .9 1 1 .6 1 4 .0 1 7 .6 1 8 .2 5 -7 « 1 1 .2 11 5 1 1 .9 1 1 .7 1 2 .4 1 2 .3 1 1 .7 1 1 .5 1 1 .2 1 2 .9 14 .8 1 3 .8 9 .5 6—78 1 1 .1 11 4 1 1 .8 1 1 .6 1 2 .2 1 2 .1 1 1 .5 1 1 .3 1 1 .0 1 2 .3 1 3 .6 1 2 .6 9 .8 1 0 .1 1*615.5 1*625.0 1 6 .9 1 *646.3 1 *6 69 .4 1*682.1 1*695.7 7 -7 8 1 1 .5 11 9 1 2 .2 1 2 .1 1 2 .7 1 2 .6 1 2 .2 1 2 .1 1 2 .0 1 3 .3 1 4 .5 1 3 .9 1 2 .5 1 4 .0 1 8 .0 8 -7 8 1 1 .3 11 7 1 2 .0 1 1 .8 1 2 .4 1 2 .3 1 1 .8 1 1 .8 1 1 .6 1 2 .6 1 3 .5 1 2 .8 1 1 .5 1 2 .2 1 3 .2 8 .6 9—78 1 1 .3 11 5 1 1 .8 1 1 .7 1 2 .2 1 2 .1 1 1 .7 1 1 .6 1 1 .4 1 2 .2 1 3 .0 1 2 .3 1 1.2 1 1 .6 1 2 .1 9 .2 9 .8 1 0 -7 8 1 1 .5 11 8 1 2 .1 1 2 .0 1 2 .5 1 2 .4 1 2 .1 1 2 .0 1 1 .9 1 2 .7 1 3 .4 1 2 .9 1 2 .1 1 2 .6 1 3 .2 1 1 .6 1 3 .2 1 6 .6 1 1 -7 8 1 1 .6 11 9 1 2 .1 1 2 .0 1 2 .5 1 2 .4 1 2 .1 1 2 .0 1 1 .9 1 2 .7 1 3 .3 1 2 .9 1 2 .1 1 2 .5 1 3 .0 1 1 .8 1 2 .9 1 4 .5 4-.Z.7 5 -7 7 M 7 7 -7 7 Ir IL ? t T7 W -7 7 1 1 -7 7 . 1 2 -2 7 2 -7 9 M 4 -7 8 . J - T I i H 1,719.2 1*731.1 i . _ 7 -Il J - f l . 1*744.7 I *767.2 1 2 .4 1 * 7 8 4 . 5P 9 -7 8 1 0 -7 8 I N I T I A L MONTH r- y m w B M Y__________________________________ _________________ ____________________ ____________ ___________ ______ _______________________________________________________________________________________________ PREFARH) 8V FEDERAL RESERVE ftAML_QF S T , LOUIS 0ECEM5ER 18» 1978 8 RETAIL RAT I 0 SALES SCALE BILLIONS OF RATIO DOLLARS seasonally BILLIONS adjusted OF SCALE DOLLARS ------------L J -------------------------------------- L L----------------------------------- LJ.-------------- ------------------- ------------------- ---------------- U 25 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 SOURCE« PERCENTACES ARE LATEST PLOTTED. DATA ANNUAL RATES OF O CTOBER, CHANCE NOVEMBER F OR PERIODS AOVANC E 1976 U.S. 1977 DE PART MEN T 1978 OF C OM ME R C E IN DICATED . ESTIMATE PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOU IS R E T A I L SALES COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RAT ES OF CHANGE T E R MI N A L MONTH INITIAL 4-77 5-77 6-77 5-77 2.6 6-7*7 -0.8 -4. 1 7-77 5.2 6.5 18.4 8-77 6.6 8.0 14.6 7-77 8-77 9-77 10-77 11-77 12-77 M I L L I O N S Of DOLLARS month 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 5-78 6-78 7-78 8-78 9— 7 8 1 0 - 7 8 58,052 57,851 58,669 10.9 59,177 9-77 6.3 7.2 11.2 7.8 4.9 10-77 9.9 11.4 15.6 14.7 16.7 29.9 11-77 11.3 12.8 16.5 16.0 17.8 24.8 20.0 i i - n 1 Ó. 2 11.4 14.2 1 3.3 14.0 1>.2 i l .3 3.2 1-78 <4.0 5.0 6.4 4.5 3.3 —4 . 7 -15.1 -30.2 ¿-70 l.i 8.1 9.1 8.6 è .2 8 .è 4.Ì -0.7 -2.5 36.1 i-tè 8.9 9.6 11.2 10.3 10.3 11.2 ' t .8 4.9 5.5 29.8 23.7 4-78 10.3 11.1 12.7 12.1 12.3 13.3 1 0.8 9.1 10.6 28.9 25.4 27.2 5 9,412 60,720 61,650 61,813 59,987 6 1 ,5V8 62,649 5— 78 10. 1 10.7 12.2 11.6 11.7 12.6 10.3 8.8 9.9 23.1 19.1 16.8 7.3 6-78 9.7 10.3 11.6 11.0 11.0 11.7 9.6 8.2 9.1 1 9.3 15.4 12.8 6.2 5.2 7-78 8.8 9. 2 10.3 9.7 9.6 10.0 8.0 6.6 7.1 15.1 11.2 8.3 2.7 0 VJI 63,917 8-78 10.1 10.6 11.8 11.3 11.3 11.9 1 0.2 9.2 10.0 1 7.4 14.5 12.8 9.4 10.1 12.7 32.3 9-78 10.1 10.5 11.6 1 1. 1 11.1 11.7 10.2 9.2 9.9 16.3 13.7 12.2 9.4 9.9 11.5 20.2 9.2 10-78 1 0.4 10.9 11.9 1 1.5 11.5 12.1 10.7 9.9 10.6 16.4 14.1 12.8 10.6 11.3 12.9 19.2 13.1 17.1 i l —78 11.3 11.8 12.8 12.4 12.5 13.1 11.9 11.2 12.0 17.4 15.5 14.5 12.8 13.8 15.6 21.1 17.6 22.0 27.1 4-77 5-7 7 6-77 7-77 8-77 9-77 10— 77 1 1 - 7 7 1 2-77 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 5-78 6-78 7-7H 8-78 9-78 10-78 INITIAL PE- 64,292 1 o 64,565 64,343 65,862 66,347 6 7 ,225P 68,5846 MONTH PRELI MI NARY ESTI MATED PREPARED BY F EDERAL RESERVE DECEMBER 1 3 , 1978 9 ÜAffe. Q t ST. LOUIS HOURLY C OMP E N S A T I ON, P R I V A T E B U S I N E S S SECTOR < COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RAT ES Of CHANGE_____________ T ERMI NAL QUARTER INITIAL 4-73 1-74 2-74 3-74 1-74 6.3 2-74 9.6 3- 7^, 11.1 13.5 14> 4-74 11.0 12.6 12.3 10.7 - 4- 74 1-75 2-75 3-75 4-75 QUARTER 1-76 2-76 1 967 * 100 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-7 8 2-78 157.4 13^0^ 162 . 3 167.7 172.0 1-75 10.9 12.1 11.7 10.6 2-75 10.4 11.2 10.8 9.7 9.3 7.9 \ 7 . 4 % 3-75 9.9 10.5 10.0 9.0 8.5 7.4 4-75 9.8 10.3 9.8 9.0 8.6 7.9 7.9 1-76 9.7 10.1 9.7 9.0 8.7 8.2 8.3 9.1 \ 9.1 2-76 9.6 9.9 9.6 8.9 8.7 8.3 8.3 8.8 8.7 e.* 3-76 9.6 9.9 9.6 9.0 8.8 8.5 8.6 9.0 9.0 9.0 4-76 9.5 9.8 9.5 9.0 8.8 8.5 8.6 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.2 8.9 1-77 9.4 9.6 9.3 8.9 8.7 8.5 8.5 8.8 8.8 8.7 8.8 8.4 2-77 9. 1 9.4 9.1 8.6 8 .4 b.2 8.2 8.4 8.3 8.1 8.1 7.6 6.9 10^6^ 17t> . 4 179.8 182.8 r 186.8 190.9 194.8 •>X 199.3 203.6 X 8 .8% 207.5 T K 210.5 3-77 9.2 9.4 9. 1 8.7 8.5 8.3 8.3 8.5 8.5 8.3 8.3 8.0 7.7 7.7 4-77 9.0 9.2 8.9 8.5 6 .4 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.2 8.1 8.1 7.8 7.5 7.3 1-76 9.2 9.4 9.1 8.8 8.6 8.5 8.5 8.7 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.5 9.4 9.4 12 . 2 2-78 9. 1 9.3 9.1 8.7 8 .6 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.5 8.6 8.4 8.3 8.4 9.1 9.0 10.1 8.0 3-78 9.2 9.3 9. 1 8. b 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.8 8.8 8.7 8.8 8.7 8.6 8.7 9.3 9.3 1 0.2 9.2 10.3 4-73 1-74 3-74 4-74 1-75 2-75 3-75 4-75 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 2-74 INITIAL 2 15.3 8.0 6.7 218.8 225.2 229.6 i 235.3 QUARTER O UT P UT PER HOUR OF ALL PERSONS, P R I V A T E B US I N E S S SECT OR * _______________COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RAT ES Of CHANGE____________________ IN ITIA L term in al quarter 4-73 1-74 2-7* 3-7* 4-74 1-75 2-75 3-75 ¿♦-75 1 967 « QUARTER 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 -7.2 2-74 -4.5 -1.8 3-74 -3.6 -1.8 -1.8 4-74 -3.4 -2.0 -2.2 -2.5 1-75 -2.6 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 0.7 2-75 —0 . 4 1.0 1.7 2.9 5.8 4-77 2-78 109.9 109.2 r 1 109.4 9.7% V 11.0 112.3 114.6 0.8 2.2 3.0 4.3 6.6 9.7 4-7 5 0.5 1.6 2.2 3.0 4.5 5.8 3.2 1Y— -1.7 1-76 0.9 2.0 2.6 3. 3 4.5 5.5 3.7 1.4 4.6 4.9 3.4 1.7 3.5 114.1 115.4 116.1 2.4 2-76 1.1 2. 1 2.5 3.2 4.2 3-76 1.3 2.2 2.7 3.2 4.1 4.6 3.4 2.2 3.5 3.0 3.5 1.2 2.0 2.4 2.9 3.6 4.0 2.9 1.8 2.7 2.1 1.9 o > 1-77 1.3 2. 2.4 2.9 3.5 3.8 2.8 1.9 2.7 2.2 2.1 1.4 2.4 2-77 1.1 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.9 3.2 2.2 1.4 1.9 1.4 1. 1 0.3 0.3 -1.7 1 117.1 117.2 ,3% 1 17.9 117.4 3-77 1.4 2.0 2.3 2.7 3.1 3.4 2.6 1.9 2.4 2.0 1.9 1.5 1.9 1.7 5.2 4-77 1.3 1.9 2.2 2. 5 2.9 3.1 2.3 1.7 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.3 1.5 1.2 2.7 0.3 1-78 0.9 1.5 1.7 2. 0 2.3 2.4 1.7 1.0 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.3 -0.3 0.2 -2.2 -4.6 2-78 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.4 1.7 1.1 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.5 -1.0 - 1 .7 3-78 1.1 1.6 1.8 2. 0 2.3 2.4 1 .8 1.3 1.5 1.2 l.l 0.8 0.9 0.6 1.1 0. 4-73 1-74 2-74 3-74 4-74 1-75 3-75 4-75 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 2-75 IN ITIA L ♦R EV IS ED 1-78 110.4 3-75 1 3 77 1 10.9 1 —74 <> 2-77 100 118.9 1 3-77 119.0 117.6 1 . 4 ^ X\ 0.0 2.4 4-77 1-78 118.0 3.4 ^ 119.0 2-78 QUARTER fROM 1 9 4 7 . PREPARED BY fE D E R A L RESERVE DECEHBER 8 , 1978 10 8Af* Of S T . LOUIS PRODUCTIVITY, C OMP E NS AT I ON , RATI O SCALE 1967-100 SEASONALLY AND LABOR C O S T S * RAT I 0 S C A L E 1967-100 ADJUSTED SOURCEi P ER CENT AGES ARE LA TES T PLOTTEDt * DA TA REVISED FROM ANNU AL RATE S 3 RD OF CHAN GE FOR PERIODS U.S. DE P A R T M EN T OF L A BO R IN D IC A T ED . O UA RT ER 1947. PREPARED BY F E D E R A L R ESERVE B ANK OF ST . LOU IS U N I T LABOR CO S T S , PRI VATE BUSI NESS SECTOR < COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE_________ TERMINAL______________ ____________________ ________ ____________________ I N I T I A L QUARTER_______________________________________________________________1967 « 100 QUARTER 1-7 4 2 -7 4 3 -7 4 4 - 7 4 1-75 2-7 5 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-7 6 3-75 4-75 3- 7 7 4 - 7 7 1-78 2 -7 8 1-7 7 2- 7 7 1-7 4 14.1 2 -7 4 14.6 141,9 15 .2 0 3 .7 % 1 4 7. 0 3 -7 4 15.1 15 .6 16.1 4 -7 4 14.8 1 5 .0 14 .9 13.8 1- 75 1 3 .7 1 3 .6 13.1 11 .6 2- 7 5 10.8 10.1 8.9 6 .6 * > w 1 3.2 3- 7 5 8.9 8 .1 6.7 4.5 1 .6 -2 .1 4 -7 5 9.2 8 .5 7.5 5.8 3.9 2.2 152 *6 157.6 V *- 2 , 1 % 161 .2 160.1 r 4 .7 15 9.5 — s. 1■ 1 1 .2 ^ \ 163 .8 1 -7 6 8.6 8.0 7.0 5.5 3 .9 2 .6 4.4 7 .5 2 -7 6 8 .3 7.7 6.8 5.5 4*2 3.2 4 .7 6.9 4 .8 3 -7 6 8.1 7.5 6.7 5.6 4*5 3*6 5.0 6.6 5.2 4-76 8 .2 7.7 6 .9 6.0 5 .0 4*4 5.6 6 .1 6.8 7*4 9*0 \ 1 -7 7 7.9 7.4 6.8 5.9 5.0 4.5 5.6 6.8 5 .9 6.4 6 .7 7.1 2-77 7.9 7 .5 6.8 6 .Q 5*3 4*8 5.8 6*9 6*2 *t7 6*9 7. 3 6*4 3 -7 7 7.7 7 .2 6.6 5.9 5*2 4f 8 5.6 6* 5*9 6*3 6 .5 5.6 165*4 167.7 5*e 5*8 170.1 7 .4 % 173*8 176.0 17 9.3 5.9 4.1 181*1 4-77 7.6 7.2 6.6 5.9 5 .3 4 .9 5.7 6*5 6.0 6*2 6*3 6.4 5.8 6*0 5.2 1-78 8 .1 7.8 7*3 6.7 6*2 5.9 6 .7 7.6 7.2 7*6 7*8 8.2 8. 0 8.7 9.1 11*7 1 7 .3 2-78 8.1 7 .7 7.3 6 .7 6.2 6.0 6.7 7.5 7. 1 7*5 7*7 8 .0 7.8 8*4 8.5 10*1 12*0 6* 9^\ 19 4.6 3- 7 8 a.o 7 .7 7.2 6.7 6.2 6.0 6.7 7.4 7.1 7.4 7.6 7*8 7*7 8*1 8*2 9.2 10.2 6*8 197*8 4 -7 3 1 -7 4 2-74 3—74 4 -7 4 1-75 2 -7 5 3-75 4-7 5 1-7 6 2-76 3-76 4 -7 6 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-7 7 1-7 8 6*3^\ 18 3 .9 191*4 2-7 8 I N I T I A L QUARTER ♦REVISED FRON 1947.__________________________________ __________________________________ PREPARED BY FEDERAL fttSERVE DECEMBER Ö , 197Ö 11 BANK OF S T . L O U IS GROSS N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S COHPOUNOEO ANN UA L R A T E S OF CHANG E _________ BILLIONS INITIAL 4 -7 3 1 -74 2— 7* 3 -7 4 4 -7 4 1-75 2~~75 3—75 4 — 75 QUARTER 1—76 OF DOLLARS___ 2—76 3—76 4 — 76 1— 77 2 —77 3—77 4 — 77 1—78 2—79 ANNUAL RA TE S 1 . 4QQ » 1 A. »T-'W «X \ 3 . 5 % 4-74 7.2 8.2 7*6 6 .4^V 1-75 5.8 6.3 5.2 3.5 0.6\ 2-75 6.9 7. 5 7.0 6.4 6.5 1 2.6 3-75 8.5 9.3 9.3 9.* 10.4 15.6 18*6^ 4-75 8.6 9*2 9 *2 9.3 10.0 13*3 13.7 1-76 9.1 9*8 9*8 10.0 10.7 13t 4 13.7 11.3 13.6s 2-76 9.1 9*7 9*7 9.8 10.4 12t 5 12.5 10.5 11.2 8.9 3-76 9.0 9 14 9t 5 9,5 10.0 11.6 11.4 9.7 9.9 8.1 7 *4V 4r2 * . 9t9 9.3 9.3 9*4 9.9 11,1 10.9 9.4 9. 5_ 8.2 7.8 8.2 ------ 1.452.4 ---------- 1»454.7 1 1»498.6 \ I3 . 4 % . 1 , 564 . 0 9.0'' 1 •5V8 .0 1.649.7 1.685.4 1.715.6 1.749.0 lr77 9*3 9*7 9.7 9.8 10.2 11.4 11.3 10.1 10.3 9.5 9.7 10.9 13.7 2-77 9*6 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.6 11.7 11*6 10.6 10.9 10.4 10.8 11.9 13.8 1 4*0 3r77 9.7 10.1 1 0 .1 iGt? 10.6 11.7 11.6 10.7 11.0 10.5 10.8 11.7 12.9 12.5 11.1 1V\ O 07 X i v . y /o 1.806.8 L .867.0 1.916.8 4=77 _ 9.6 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.5 11.4 11.3 10.5 10.7 10.3 10.5 11.2 11.9 11.3 10.0 lr.75 ... 9,5 9.8 9 *9 9.9 10.2 11.0 10.9 10.2 10.3 9.9 10.0 10.5 10.9 10.3 9.0 8.0 7.1 2-78 10*1 10.4 10.5 1Q.6 10.9 11.8 11.7 11.1 11.3 11.0 11.3 11.9 12.5 12.2 11.8 12.0 13.7 20^6^^ 3-78 10.1 IQ .4 10.5 10.6 10*8 11.6 11 .5 11*0 11.1 10.9 JU L 11 .6 12.1 11 .8 11 .4 11.4 1 2 .3 1 5 .0 4-73 1-7 4 2-74 3-74 4— 74 1-75 2- 7 5 3-75 4-7 5 1-76 2-7 6 3-76 4-76 1-77 2 -7 7 3-7 7 4-7 7 1-7 8 IN IT IA L a^9^\ 1.958.1 1.99?.0 2 .087.5 9. 6Ì 2.1 36 * 1 2-78 QUARTER GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS TERMINAL QUARTER 1-74 2-74 3-74 4-7 4 -3 .9 2-74 -2 .9 -1*8 -2 .7 -2* 2 -3 .5 -3* 3 1 -7 1 -4 .6 -4* 8 - 2 * 5 v— ^ ~T *sert J /O 1 V -5 .5 -4 * 0 V. -5 .7 -7 t 3 1-76 2» 8 -2 .6 -¿*8 -2*9 -1 ,6 -1*0 -0*6 —O . 3 0*3 2*3 -0 »6 - 0 * 1 ____ 0 ^ ____ ÜjlI ____ 0*5 1*0 1*4 0*8 1.4 K 3~7fe _ L tü ____ L*_5_ 4~7fr _l_ti____ 1 . 6 1 -IJ i.? 3 -L Z - 2.1 1 -1 9 . 4-75 2.1 3.7 2*4____3*8 3 -7 6 1-77 4-76 2-77 3-77 4-7 7 1-7 8 2-78 1.216.9 1.1 71.6 -7 .2 %♦4 -li22Q*Q 10*5 frt5 frt?____L l *_. 7.2 7.4 5.9 1* 2 2 7 .9 9.3 6 . 5 ___________________ fr.fr 1.2 55 * 5 \ 4.Q 1, 27 6* 5 1*9____________i x i ___________ 1*2____±*2___ A*±L- ¿ , 3 ____2 * 7 3 .2 .4a l____ 5 .6 3*Q 4*1 - 2 * 4 ____2 * J ____3 . 1 3 .8 2 -1 3 W ft. _ ^ 4 ____ ________U l ____ 5 - 4 ____4*£_ 1-7 4 2-7 4 3-7 4 4-74 5.3 4*8 5*Q _4*2____4 . 6 5.4 4*3 4.4 5.2___L t l___ ft*2___±*2_ 5.0 4.9 4.5 1-7 5 2- 7 5 3-75 4 .2% 4.1 1 .3 2 5.5 4.J5____ 5 . 2 _ 5*2 5 .5 1.2S4.Q -_2-..5_ 4*4____^ 5 ____________5*5____ ^ 3 ____4 . 4 _ 3.9 3 . 8 ____4^Q____4l. 4 ____3*4____2.9_ 1*5 4 . 4 ____4*2____ 5_a____ ________4*A_ 3t? 1-7 6 2-7 6 3 -7 6 4-76 4^3. 4.Q 1-7 7 2-77 1 .3 5 4 .5 3 .2 -- 4«4 4 . 7 ____ _______ 4*2____ 4*4____4* Z 4-7 5 1 *343 *9 5 .7 5 .3 - ------- 2x2____ 1±±____± ,2 ____ I a Ib____5 ^ ____-------------- i * 3 --------±»ìl_ _2j J>___ 2jlS___ i x i ___ ______ 4.1 4-7 3 2-7 6 2 t ^ ___________ 5_L2____5_»_fi___ <L^fr____ -2 ± 2 ____ 2*4____¿^2 ____ i * A _ ■ A « l 2* 0 1-7 6 1.199.7 -Jul6____ ZjlÜ____________2*2____3*2___________ 5*5____4 . T - _ i U _ 2 -7 7 h rU L - 3-7 5 1 .230*2 3-74 4-75 2 -7 5 1,2 24 * 5 4—74 - 1-75 \^ 2 .7 % 1-74 2-75 B I L L IO N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES I N I T I A L QUARTER - L j 354 « 2 -0*1 1 t3S2. f r 3 . 5 ____3*4____---------------2*£_ 3-77 -77 1-7 8 -1> 391.4 2-78 I N I T I A L QUARTER PREPAREO 8 Y FEDER AL RESERVE DECEMBER 2 0 , 1978 12 BANK OF S T . LOUIS GROSS RATIO SCALE T R I L L I O N S OF 2 NATIONAL quarterly DOLLARS to ta ls at SEASONALLY PRODUCT annual RA TI O SCAL E T R I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S 2 1 rates ADJUSTED 0 0 2 . 1361 9 8 C UR RE NT 9 8 DOLLARS 7 7 6 6 +3. 5X 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 7 6 0 5 4 9 3914 3 8 2 2 -r. 3x 972 0 1 DOLLARS 0 9 9 8 0 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 S OU R C E t PERCENTAGES ARE LATEST P L OT T E D t DATA ANNUAL RA TE S 3RD OF CHANGE FOR P E R I O D S 1976 U.S. 1977 DEPARTMENT 1978 OF COMMERCE INDICATED. QUARTER PREPARED 13 BY F E D E R A L RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS 8 GE NE RAL RATIO PRICE INDEX* RATIO SCALE 1970 •AS SCALE 1 972-100 1 97 2 -1 00 USED 1971 IN 1972 N A T IO NA L INCOME PERCENTACES ARE LATEST P LO TTEO. D AT A A NNU AL RATES 3 RD 1973 1974 1975 ACCOUNTS OF SO UR C E . CHANCE F OR PERIODS 1976 U.S. 19 77 1978 DEPA RT MEN T OF C O M ME R CE I NO I C A T E D . Q U A RT E R PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOU IS IM P L I C I T PRICE DEFLATOR FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE_____________ TERMINAL QUARTÉR I N I T I A L QUARTER 4-73 1-74 2-7 4 3-74 4-74 1-7 5 2- 7 5 3-75 4-75 1-7 6 2- 7 6 JL97Z 3 -7 6 4 -7 6 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-7 7 1- 7 9 1QQ 2-78 111.28 114,34 A I7 .5 2 _ ,124,16 3-75 9.7 9.9 9.6 9.1 7.9 6.6 7 .3 ' 4-7 5 9 .2 9 .4 9.0 8.5 7.5 6,5 6,8 6 ,2 \ 1 -7 6 8 .6 8 .7 8 .3 7 .7 6.8 5.8 5,8 5. 1 3 .9 " 2-76 8.2 8 .2 7.8 7 .3 6.4 5.6 5,5 4,9 4.3 4,7 3 -7 6 7.9 7* 8 .... 7 . 4 . . 6,2 5,4 5,3 4,8 4,4 4,6 4-7 6 7.7 7.6 7.3 6.6 6 ,1 5,5 5,4 5,0 4,7 5,0 5,1 1-77 7 ,6 7*5 7,2 6 ,7 6,1 5.5 5.5 5.2 5.0 5 .2 5 .4 5.9 6^0\ 2-77 7.6 7.5 7.2 6,8 6,2 5.8 5 .8 5.5 5.4 5.7 6.0 6.5 6 .8 3-77 7 .4 7 .3 7 .0 6 ,7 6,1 5.7 5 ,7 5,5 5.4 5 .6 5 .8 6.1 6.3 6.4 4 -77 7.3 7.2 6 .9 6 ,6 6,1 5,7 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.6 5 .8 6.0 6.1 6.1 5.3 5* 5 N 1 -7 8 7 .3 7.2 6,9 6 ,6 6,2 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.8 6.0 6 .2 6.3 6.4 5.9 6.4 2-79 7,5 7 ,4 7,2 6 ,9 6.5 6 .2 6.2 6.1 6.1 6 .4 6,6 6,9 7.1 7t ? 7,2 7,9 9 ,1 3-78 7.5 7 .4 7.2 6.9 6.5 6 .3 6.3 6 .2 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.9 7.0 7 ,2 7,1 7,6 8 ,3 8,9 4 -7 3 1-74 2-74 3-74 4 -74 1-75 2 -7 5 3- 7 5 4-75 1-76 2- 7 6 3-76 4-76 1- 7 7 2-77 3-7 7 4-7 7 1- 7 8 12 8. 19 13 0.1 4 131 .40 ^ 7 % 132.92 4 .5 s 13 4. 39 13 6.28 1 3 8. 27 14 0.8 6 7 .7 " 14 2.6 3 14 4.5 6 1^ > ^ . 3 % 14 7. 10 ll,0 ^ \ 15 0,98 6,9 ] 153.52 2-78 I N I T I A L QUARTER PREPARED BV FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . DECEMBER 2 0 , 1978 14 LOUIS PERSONAL CONSUMPT I ON EXPENDI T URES I N CURRENT DOLLARS _____________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES Of CHANGE_________________ T ERMI NAL ________________________ _______________________________________________ I N I T I A L QUARTER___________ ______________ QUARTER 4-73 1- 74 1-74 10.4 2-74 11.4 12.3 13.3 2- 74 3-74 4-74 1-75 2- 75 3-75 4-75 2-76 1- 76 3-76 4-76 1- 77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-70 ___________________ B I L L I O N S Of __________DOLLARS ANNUAL R A T E S 2-78 0 54.0 979,2 3-74 12.3 4-74 10.0 9.8 8.6 3.2 1-75 9.7 9.6 0.7 6.0 14.3 909*0 *16,.? 8.0 935*7 2- 75 10.3 10.3 9.7 0.3 10.9 13.1 3-75 10.6 10.7 10.3 9.4 11.5 12.0 12.6 4-75 10.7 10.8 10.5 9.8 11.5 12.4 12,1 11.6 1- 76 11.0 11.1 10.9 10.4 11.8 12.6 12.5 12.4 13.2 2-76 10.7 10.8 10.6 10.1 11.3 11.8 1 1. 4 11.0 10.7 964.9 994.0 1.021,6 1.053,8 1.075.1 0.3 3-76 10.6 10.6 10.4 9.9 10.9 1 1. 3 10.9 10.5 10.1 0.6 9.0 4-76 10.0 10.9 10.7 10.3 11.2 11.6 11.3 11.1 11.0 10.2 11.2 1 3. 5 I .098.4 1-77 10.9 11.0 10.9 10.5 11.4 11.7 11.5 11.3 11.3 10. 0 1 1. 6 13.0 12.5 2-77 10.7 10.7 10.6 10.2 11.0 11.2 11.0 10.0 10.6 10.1 10.6 11.1 9.9 1.133.7 1.167.7 1.188.6 7.4 3-77 10.6 10.6 10.5 10.1 10.0 11.0 10.8 10.5 10.4 9.9 10.2 10.6 9.6 0,2 4-77 10.0 10.8 10.7 10.4 11.1 11.3 11. 1 10.9 10.0 10. 5 10. 9 11.3 10.7 10. 1 11.5 14. 1 1-78 10.6 10.6 10.5 10.2 10.7 10,9 10.7 10,5 10.4 10. 1 10.3 10,5 10,0 9.3 10,0 10.5 i .214.5 9.0 1 .255.2 1.276.7 7.0 2- 78 10.0 10.8 10.8 10.5 11.1 11.2 11.1 11,0 10,9 10. 6 10.9 11.2 10.0 10.5 1 1. 3 12.1 1 1. 1 1 5. 3 3-70 10.8 10.0 10.7 10.5 11.0 11.2 11,1 10,9 10,9 10. 6 10,9 1 1. 1 i a *6 10.5 11.2 11.7 10.9 13.0 10.7 4-73 1- 74 2-74 3-74 4-74 1-75 2- 75 3-75 4-75 1 - 76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 INITIAL 1.322.9 1.356.9 QUARTER PERSONAL CONSUMPTI ON EXPENDI T URE S I N 1972 DOLLARS ___________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RAT ES Of CHANGE____________ B I L L I O N S OF T E R MI N AL ________________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L QUARTER_______________________________________________________________________ POL LARS QUARTER ANNUAL R A T E S 2-74 3-74 4-74 1-74 4-73 1-75 2-75 3-75 4-75 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 1-74 -2.2 2-74 -l.l 761.6 0.1 761.7 3-74 0.1 1.3 2.6 4-74 -1.7 -1.5 -2.3 -7.0 1-75 -0.9 -0.6 -0.0 -2.4 2.3 2-75 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.6 4.6 7.0 3-75 1.0 1.6 1.9 1.7 4.8 6.0 5,0 4-75 1.6 2.2 2.6 2.5 5.1 6.0 5,5 6,0 1-76 2.3 2.9 3.3 3.4 5.6 6.5 6.3 6.9 7.9 766.6 752.9 757.2 770.2 779.7 791.1 806.3 2-76 2.5 3.0 3.4 3.5 5.3 6.0 5.7 5,9 5,9 3,9 3-76 2.6 3.0 3.4 3.5 5.1 5.5 5.2 5.3 5.1 3.7 3.4 4— 76 3.0 3.5 3.8 3.9 5.4 5.8 5.6 5.8 5.7 5.0 5.5 5.6 814.0 820.9 7.7 836.2 1-77 3.1 3.6 3.9 4.1 5.4 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.0 5.4 6.4 5.1 2-77 3.0 3.4 3.7 3.8 4.9 5.2 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.3 4.4 4.7 3.2 1-4 3-77 3.1 3.5 3.7 3.8 4.9 5.1 4.9 4.9 4.7 4.2 4.3 4.5 3.5 2.7 4.1 4-77 3.4 3.0 4.1 4.2 5.2 5.5 5.3 5.3 5.3 4.9 5.1 5.4 4.8 4.8 6.5 9.0 8 46 . 6 849.5 858.0 876.6 1-70 3.1 3.5 3.7 3.8 4.7 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.1 4.1 4.2 3.6 3.2 3.8 3.6 -1.4 2-78 3.3 3.6 3.9 3.9 4.8 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.0 3.7 4.3 4.4 2.2 6.0 3-70 3.3 3.7 3 *.9 *,0 4,7 4.9 4.7 *,7 4.6 4*3 4,3 4.4 4,0 3,8 4.3 4.3 2.8 5.0 4.0 4-73 1-74 2-74 3-74 4-74 1-75 2-75 3-75 4-75 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4 -77 1-78 2-78 INITIAL 873.5 886.3 895.1 QUARTER PREPARED BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST* LO UIS DECEMBER 20* 1978 15 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS _____________COMPQUNOEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE________ B I L L IO N S OF TERMINAI __________________ IN ITIA L QUA RTER _ __________ ____ QUARTER ANNUAL RATE S 4-73 1-74 1-74 - 22.4 _ 2-74 3-7* *-74 1-75 _____ 2-75 3-75 _____________ 2-7* -9 .8 4 .9 3-74 -11.8 -6.0 -15.7 -9 .1 -4 .2 -8 .5 -0 .6 4-75 ______ 1-76 2-76 3-76 _________________________ 4-76 1-77 _ __________ 2-77 3-77 4-77 210.7 1-75 -19.1 -18.2 -24.7 -28.9 -49.1 -17.0 -15.8 -20.3 -21.8 -30.7 -5.5 3 -7 5 —6 . 2 -3 .2 -4 .8 -1 .9 -2*3 35*4 9 4 .1 4-75 —6 . 2 -3 .6 -4 .9 ~Z tP. -3 * 1 20*1 J5 .4 -5 * 5 1- 7 6 0.0 ..3t 0 6.5 7*9 30*3 45*0 25*3 66*2 .2-7 6 2.0 5*2 5*2 9*6 _ L Q t2 29*7 3 9 .0 24*3 42*6 22*4 2*9 5*6 5*8 9 .9 1 0 .3 2 5 .5 3 2 .9 20.8 31*2 16.5 10 .9 2*2 4 .8 4*8 7*3 9*4 20*7 2 5 .8 15 .3 21 *2 9.1 3.0 -4 .4 — 1-7 7 5*1 1x3. 9*1 10.9 1 2 .2 23.8 _2 8 .7 20.2 2 6 .1 17 .7 16.2 1 8 .9 47.9 2-77 7*2 9*9 1 0 .4 13 .1 1 4 .6 25 .4 2 9 .9 22.6 2 6 .1 2 1 .6 21.4 25 .1 43.1 M .5 3 -7 7 6*1 10.7 11.1 13.7 15 .1 24.9 28.6 22.4 27.0 21.4 2 1 .2 23.9 35 .1 29.2 20.5 4-7 7 7 .9 10 .3 10.7 13.0 1 4 .2 22 .9 26.2 2 0 .3 24.0 18 .9 19 .3 19 .9 26.9 20.5 12 .5 5 .0 1-78 8.1 10 .4 10.8 13.0 14 .1 22.0 24.9 19 .5 22.6 18.1 17 .5 18 .6 23.8 18 .4 12.4 8.6 12.3 _ 2-78 ___ 2-75 ?*76 j-78 1 7 7 17 206. 203.9 231 .5 243.5 249.9 247.1 272.5 295.6 309.7 313.5 322.7 2 -7 6 9*3 11.5 12.0 14.1 15 .2 22.7 25 .4 2 0 .5 23*5 19.5 19 .1 20.3 2 5 .0 20 .9 16 .6 1 5 .7 21.4 3 1 .2 3 -7 8 9*1 11*2 11*6 13*5 1 4 .5 21*4 23*7 19*2 21*7 18 .0 17*5 18^4 22.0 16.2 1 4 .5 13.0 15.9 17*7 5.6 4-73 1-7 4 2-7 4 3-7 4 4-7 4 1-75 2 -7 5 3-7 5 4-75 1-7 6 2-7 6 3 -7 6 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-7 7 1-7 8 2-78 1-78 BI LL IO N S OF W l lARS ANNUAL RATES 2-7 8 345.4 350*1 I N I T I A L QUARTER GROSS PRIVATE OONESTIC INVESTMENT IN 1972 DOLLARS ___________ COMPOUNCED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE____________ I N I T I A L QUARTER TERMINAL QUARTER 4—73 1-74 2-7 4 3-7 4 4-74 1-75 2-75 3-7 5 4-75 1-76 2 -7 6 3-76 4-7 6 1-7 7 2 -7 7 3-77 4-7 7 1-74 -24>5 197*4 2-74 - 1 9 . 7 — 14» 5 199*9 —21*5 - 2 0 * 0 - 2 5 . 0 -1 9 .5 -1 7 .7 -1 9 .2 -1 2 .9 1 -7 5 0 CO 1 -3 1 .8 -4 1 .9 2-7 5 -2 6 .6 * 3-74 4-7 4 -3 6 .8 176 16 170, 6 -61 .3 1 3 4. 6 13 3. 3 -2 7 .0 -2 9 .8 -3 1 .3 -3 6 .9 - ? 9 3-75 -1 6 .7 -1 5 .4 -1 5 .5 -1 3 .0 -1 3 .0 ?o 4 4-7 5 -1 6 * 2 - 1 4 . 9 - 1 4 . 9 -1 2 .8 -1 2 * 7 14 4 24.8 - 1 1 . 9 -1 .0 2? 2 36.7 1-76 -9 .7 -7 .6 -6 .6 -3 .1 1 5 3 .7 76*6 20*2 14ft.9 169.5 64.0 2 -7 6 -7 .4 —5 . 3 -4 .1 -0 .6 1.6 2? 2 31 .1 1 8 .6 37.7 15 .6 3 -7 6 —6 . 3 -4 .2 -3 .0 0.1 2.2 20 1 25.5 15 .2 26.0 10 .5 5.6 4 -7 6 —6 . 5 -4 .6 -3 .6 -0 .6 0.6 15 6 1 9 .2 10 .1 16.5 3 .9 -1 .5 -8 .1 1-77 -3 .9 -1 .9 -0 .7 2 .1 3.9 17 21.0 13.6 19 .5 10 .4 6.6 1 0 .4 32 .7 2-7 7 -2 .0 —0 . 0 1.3 4.1 5.9 18 5 2 1 .6 15 .3 20.6 13 .4 12.8 15.3 29*2 25.8 3-77 -1 .3 0.6 1.9 4.5 6 .3 17 6 20.2 1 4 .6 1 6 .9 12.7 12 .2 13.9 22.3 17 .5 9 .7 4-7 7 -1 .4 0 .4 1.6 4.0 5.5 1? 1 7 .7 1 2 .5 16.0 10.4 9.5 10.3 15 .5 10.3 3.3 -2 .7 . 2 .2 4.5 5.9 17 .1 12 .4 1 5 .4 10.5 9.8 10 .5 14 .6 10.5 5.9 4 .0 1 1 .2 1 -7 8 -0 .7 2-78 0.1 4-7 3 1.0 6 6 15 2 1 7 4. 7 17 7.1 113*4 186.1 197.1 201.7 200.3 20 5 .7 1 .6 2.9 5.1 6.6 15 2 1 6 .9 12 .6 15.4 11 .0 1 0 .4 1 1 .2 1 4 .7 11 . 4 8.1 7.6 1 3 .2 1 5 .2 1 .4 2.5 4.5 5.8 13 .6 15 .1 1 1 .0 1 3 .4 9 .3 8.6 9.0 11 .7 8 .5 5.4 4.3 6.6 4 .6 -5 .0 1 -7 4 2-7 4 3-7 4 4-74 1 - 75 2 -7 5 3-75 4-75 1-76 2-76 3 -7 6 4 -7 6 1-77 2-7 7 3-77 4 -7 7 1- 7 8 2-78 2 1 3 .1 210*4 I N I T I A L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO UIS DECEMBER 2 0 , 1978 16 GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND S ERVI CES I N CURRENT DOLLARS ___________________COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RAT ES OF CHANGE __________________ TERMINAL QUARTER 8 1 LLI ONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES I N I T I A L iQUARTER 4— 73 1-74 1- 7 4 1 4 .4 2-74 14.9 15.4 2-74 3— 74 4-74 1-75 2 -7 5 3-7 5 4-75 1-76 2-7 6 3-7 6 4-76 14 .8 1 4 .9 14 .4 14.3 14.3 1 3 .7 12.9 13 , 6 13*4 12 .7 11 .9 1 0 .9 13*1 12.9 12.2 11 .5 10*8 3-7 5 12 .7 12.4 1 1 .8 11 .1 10 .5 10.3 9.9 4-75 12 .5 12*2 11 .7 11*1 10*7 10.7 10.6 11.3 2 - 78 32 5 .8 10*7 334.2 3 4 2 .2 3 5 1 .5 1-76 1 1 .4 11.0 1 0 .4 9.7 9*1 0.7 e.o 7.0 2.9 2-76 10 .6 10*2 9*5 8.8 8.2 7.6 6.9 5.9 3.3 354.0 35 7 .2 3. 7 360.4 5-76 9 .9 9 .5 8.8 8.2 7.5 7 .0 6 .2 5.3 3.4 3 .6 3.6 4-76 9.7 9.2 8 .6 8 .0 7.4 6.9 6 .3 5.6 4.2 4 .7 5 .2 6.7 1-77 9.7 9.3 8.7 8.2 7.7 7.3 6 .8 6.3 5.3 5.9 6.7 8.3 9-8 8.2 7.9 7.6 7.0 7.8 a .8 10 .6 12.7 1- 7 8 1-7 8 3 1 7 .5 1- 7 5 4-77 4-7 7 308*0 2 -7 5 3—77 3-7 7 287.3 5-74 10.1 2-77 297*8 4-7 4 2-77 1 -7 7 8.4 366.5 375.0 3fttì.8 9.8 9.3 8.8 15.6 10 .2 9.9 9 .5 9 .1 8.7 8.5 8 .3 8.0 7 .6 8 .4 9.4 10 .8 12.3 13.5 11.5 10 .4 10.1 9.8 9.4 9 .L 9.0 8 .8 8.7 8.3 9.1 10.1 11 .4 12.6 13 .6 12 .6 13.7 10.0 9.7 9.4 9.0 8.7 8.5 8 .4 8.2 7.9 8. 5 9.2 10 .2 10 .9 11 .1 9 .7 8.8 4 .1 2-78 9 .9 9 .6 9.3 8 .9 8.7 8.5 8.3 8.2 7.9 8 .4 9.0 9.8 10 .4 10.5 9 .2 8.5 6 .0 7.9 5- 7 8 10*2 9*9 9.6 9*3 9*1 9.0 8*8 8 .7 8.5 9.1 9.7 10.5 Ll.fi 11.2 10.4 10 .1 8.9 11.4 15 . 0 4-73 1-74 2-74 3-74 4-74 1-75 2-75 3-7 5 4-75 1-76 2- 7 6 3- 7 6 4 -7 6 1-77 2-77 3-7 7 4-7 7 1- 7 8 2 - 78 399.5 412.5 410.7 42 4.7 43 9.8 I N I T I A L QUARTER GOVERNMENT 1PURCHASES OF GOOOS A»® SERVICES IN 1972 OOLLARS COMPOUNOED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL__________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L QUARTER_____________________ _ QUARTER 4-73 1-7 4 2-74 3-7 4 4 -7 4 1-75 2-75 3 -7 5 4-75 1-76 2 -7 6 1-77 3—76 4 -7 6 1- 7 4 6.8 2-74 4.5 2.2 _ _ 2-77 B I L L I O N S OF POL LARS ANNUAL RATES ____________ 3-7 7 4 -7 7 1-7 8 2-7 8 256*2 257.6 3-74 3.5 1.8 1.4 4-7 4 2.5 1.1 0.5 -0 .3 1 -7 5 2.3 1.2 0.9 0 .6 1.6 2 -7 5 2.5 1*7 1*6 1*6 2*6 3.6 3-75 2 .6 2.0 1.9 2*1 2*8 3*5 3*4 4-75 2.7 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.9 3 .3 3.2 258.5 258*3 2 5 9 .3 261.6 263*8 2.9 265.7 1-76 2* i K6 W5 1*5 1.9 1.9 1*4 0*4 -2*1 2-76 1. 8 1.2 l.l 1.0 1.3 1.2 0 .6 -0 .3 -1 .9 -1 .7 3-76 1.5 1.0 0 .8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0 .3 -0 .5 -1 .6 -1 .4 264.3 26 3.2 -1 .1 262.5 261.3 4-7 6 1*2 0 .7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0 .4 -0 .1 -0 .8 -1 .7 -1 .5 -1 .4 -1 .8 1- 7 7 1.3 0.9 0.7 0 .7 0.8 0.7 0 .3 -0 .3 -0 .9 —0 . 6 -0 .2 0.2 2.3 2-77 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.6 1.1 1.8 2.8 5.1 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.9 2 .6 3.5 2 6 2 .8 267.9 8 .0 6-9 5 .8 271.7 3-77 2.0 1.7 1.7 4-7 7 2.2 1.9 1 .8 1.9 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.6 2.2 2.8 3.6 5.1 6 .0 5.0 4 .2 1-7 8 1.8 1.5 1 .5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 .1 1.5 1.9 2.4 3. 3 3.5 2.1 0 .3 -3 .5 2-78 1. 7 1.4 1 .4 1.4 1. 5 1.5 1.3 1. 1 0.9 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.7 2 .8 1.5 0.1 -1 .9 -0 .3 3-78 2*0 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.7 1 .6 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.7 3. 3 3.5 2.6 1 .8 1.1 3 .4 7.3 4-73 1-7 4 2-7 4 3-74 4-74 1- 7 5 2-75 3-75 4-75 1-7 6 2- 7 6 3-76 4 -7 6 1-77 2-7 7 3-77 4-7 7 1-7 8 2-7 8 INITIAL 274.5 2 7 2 .1 271.9 2 7 6 .7 QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO U IS DECEMCER 20 » 1970 17 OISPOSA6LE PERSONAL INCONE IN CURRENT DOLLARS _______ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE__________ T ER M IN AL IN IT IA L QUARTER q uarter *-7 3 I —74 2-7 4 3~74 4-7 4 1-75 ¿-7? 3-73 4-75 j -7 6 2_-76 3~76 4-76 1-77 ¿ -77 3-7 7 <,-77 1- 7 8 2-78 B I L L IO N S OF ■DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 3.1_______________________________________________________________________ 9 + 9 .$ - I l l ___1 0 , 3 8.9 1 -7 5 7,4 - 2 - 7 5 ____ I Q , 9 -9 7 3 .1 10,9 11+4 ??9t7 ____L*2____ 1 ± I____ L t 2 _ 12*5 1 2 *9 1 6 ,1 3 0 ,1 ltQ 9 5 tl 19*1 U t? 15 ,1____ U 9 _ 1 , 1QQ.3 3 -7 5 _ 9>6 10, ? 10,3 4 -7 5 9*6 10,2. 10,2 . 1 9 .9 .JL -7 6. - 1 . Q 2 3 .4 12» 1 IfttZ.. 1 0 , 2 9*9 19.3. J J U 1 5*7 9.6 10*6 12 .4 7.0 9.7 9.8 1.1 25.8 1.152-3 ... 2-7*. 2*3 9*8 9*7 9 ,* 9*9 _ 11 .2 6.9 8.6 8.1 6 .4 ... 3-7 ». 9.1 9 . 6 _ 2*5. 9 .2 9.6 10 .6 7.1 8 .4 8.0 7.1 4— 76 9.2 9*6 1-77 ... 2 . 2 _ 2 -I7 9.4 3-77 1* 170 .6 7.8 1 .1 9? . fl 9.5 9.3 9.6 1 0 .5 7.6 8.7 8.5 8.1 8.9 10 .0 9.5 9 .3 9.6 1 0 .3 7.8 8.8 8.6 8 .3 8.9 9.5 9.0 9.8 9 .7 9 .6 9.9 1 0 .6 8.3 9.3 9.2 9.1 9.8 10 .5 10.7 1?,,5 9.5 9 .8 9.8 9 .7 10.0 1 0 .6 8.6 9.5 9.5 9.4 10.0 10 .6 io . a ,7 111 1 0 .9 4r27 9 .7 10 .0 1 0 .0 9 .9 1 0 .2 1 0 .8 9 .0 9.9 9.9 9.9 10.5 11 .0 11.3 12,, 1 1 1 .9 12.9 — .1 -7 « 9.7 1 0 .0 AQ. 0 9.9 1 0 .2 10.7 9.1 9.9 9 .9 9.9 10 .4 10.8 11 .0 H i .5 11 .2 11.3 . I .221 * 5 1 . 2 4 a .0 1.2 85-3 1 .3 1 9 . 1 1.3 59.6 9.8 1.3 91.6 2 -7 « 9 .9 10.2 10.2 1 0 .1 1 0 .3 1 0 .9 9 .4 10.1 10.1 10 .2 10 .7 11.1 11 .2 l l i ,7 1 1 .5 11.7 1 1 .1 12.5 3 -7 « 9 .9 10*2 10.2 1 0 .1 10.3 10 .8 9.4 10.1 10 .1 10 .2 10 .6 1 1 .0 11.1 11.>5 1 1 .2 11.3 10.8 11 .3 10.2 4-73 1-7 4 2-7 4 3-7 4 4-74 1- 7 5 2 -7 5 3- 7 5 4 -7 5 1 -7 6 2 -7 6 3-76 4-76 1-77 2 -7 7 3-77 4-7 7 1-78 2-78 1.4 33.3 1.468.4 I N I T I A L QUARTER DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOHE IN 1972 DOLLARS _______ C Q H P Q W Q i P - TERMINAL QUARTER 4 -7 3 1 -74 K A T fS 9* C H A N T S_________ B I L L IO N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES I H I T 1 A L QUARTER 1 -7 4 2-7 4 3-74 4-7 4 1-75 2~75 3- 7 5 4 -7 5 1 -7 6 2~76 3 -7 » 4 -7 6 1 -7 7 2 -7 7 3 -7 7 4 -7 7 1 -7 8 2 -7 « —7 , 0 346 . 7 —1 .7 2 -7 4 , A 4 3 .1 3-7 4 -2 9 -0*9 -Q*Q 4-7 4 -3 1 -1 ,0 -1*9 -3* 7 2 -7 5 0*9 2*6 3 ,7 4 .9 9.6 2 3 .1 3-7 5 0*1 1*3 1.9 2*4 4*5 6*2 -4*9 4-7 5 0*6 1*7 2*2 2*7 4*4 6.8 -0 .5 4.0 1-76 1*0 2*1 2*6 3 ,0 4*4 »* 3 1.2 4 .4 4 .7 W t9 87 4.1 963*1 8 7 1 .7 881.8 2-7 6 1 .1 2*1 2*5 2*9 4*0 5*4 1.4 3.6 3.4 2.1 3-7 6 1,2 2*1 2*5 2 .8 3.8 4.9 1.6 3.3 3.0 2. 2 2.4 4-7 6 1 .5 2.3 2.7 3*0 3.9 4 .8 2 .0 3.5 3.3 2 .9 3.3 4.3 1-77 1.5 2.2 2 .6 2 .9 3.6 4.4 2 .0 3.2 3 .0 2.6 2 .8 3.0 1.7 8 8 6 .3 891 . 5 9 0 0 .9 904.8 2-7 7 1.6 2 .5 2 .9 3 .2 3 .9 4 .6 2.5 3.6 3 .6 3.3 3.6 4.1 4 .0 6.2 3-7 7 2*1 2*8 3*1 3.4 4 .1 4.6 2 .9 3 .9 3.9 3.6 4.1 4.5 4.6 6.1 5.9 4-7 7 2,* 3*1 3*5 3*7 4*4 5.0 3 .4 4.3 4 .4 4.3 4.7 5.2 5.4 6 .7 6 .9 4 ,0 .. 3 .9 _ 4.2 4 .5 4.5 5.2 4 .9 4 .4 1 .1 3 .9 4.1 4 .3 4.3 4 .9 4 .5 4*.1_ 1*1 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.7 4.3 3*2_ 2 .7 3,5 3«? 2- 7 6 3 -7 6 4-7 6 1-77 2-77 4-7 7 1 -7 6 2-7 6 1 -7 8 2** 3 .0 3 .3 3*5 4.1 4.7 3 .2 4 .0 2-7® _ 2*4 3*0 3 ,3 3.5 4 .1 4 .6 J.2 4 .0 3 -7 8 2*5 3*0 3*3 3*5 4*0 4*5 3.2 3.9 3.9 4-7 3 1-7 4 2-7 4 3-74 4-7 4 1-7 5 2 -7 5 3-7 5 4-75 1-7 6 918.6 931.9 7.6 3-77 24 . 9 5 2. 1 ■ ■ .. a .; 2*9.3 2 * 5 .7 I N I T I A L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST* LOUIS 0ECEN6ER 2 0 , 1978 1 8 CORPORATE P R O F I T S AFT ER T AXES * COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RAT ES OF CHANGE T ERM IN AL IN ITIA L 4-7 3 1-74 2-74 3 -7 4 4-74 1- 7 5 2 -7 5 3- 7 5 4-75 B I L L I O N S OF P O L I AKS ANNUAL RATES QUARTER 1-76 2-7 6 3- 7 6 4-76 1-7 7 ¿ -77 3-7 7 4 -7 7 1-7 8 ¿ -78 7Q»9 14.8 12 »9 11.2 2 5 .0 3 0 .5 7.3 9 i t9 1*9 - 3 2 >2 1- 7 5 -11 .1 2- 7 5 -3 ,8 -7 .2 3- 7 5 7. 8 6 .7 8.3 53.3 59,1 - 1 6 . 6 - 2 4 . 3 —4 6 . 6 - 5 8 . 2 -1 1 .3 -2 6 .0 -22,8 5.8 —3 •6 JU±___ 6 . 6 8 ,4 42,8 78.1 7 4 . 6 113*6 -0 ,7 9*3 ?Q*5 ?**? lU j 1-76 1 2 .3 12,0 12.2 6.5 16 .5 50.6 53*3 2 9 .9 5 0 ,9 2-lb 12,7 1 2 , 5 __ 1 2 * 7 7*8 16 »? 43*0 43*0 ¿5*1 3 2 * 4 __ \frt 2 U .5 11*6 7*2__ 14*? 3 5 »* 3 4 . 0 __ 21^3____________ 10*0 9*9 5*9 ¿9*9 26*8 _ L L* - 4 —76 10,4 1 2 *0 3.1 1 4 *2 14 *9____4*5__ 11, 1 10,8 10 ,8 7,3 1 2 ,9 ¿7.8 25,8 15,1 15 .8 8.4 6.0 7.4 o o 96.5 1-7 7 2-77 1¿ .3 12, 1 1 2 .2 9,1 14.4 ¿7.9 ¿ 6 ,1 17.0 1 7 .9 1¿.¿ 11 .3 14.1 ¿ 4 .3 20 3 -7 7 1 2 .0 11 ,8 1 1 .9 9,0 13 ,8 ¿5.8 2 4 .0 15.8 16 ,4 11.5 10.6 1 ¿ .6 18 .6 17 . 9 8 .0 4-77 11.1 10.9 10 ,8 8 ,1 12 .4 ¿3,0 21. 2 13.8 14.0 9.5 8.5 9.6 13 .2 11 , 1 3.1 -1 .5 .fi -0 .9 -5 .1 -8 .5 20.5 33 .2 <>4.0 lú ¿ . 8 lCrttft. - 1-7 8 9.8 9.5 9,4 6.8 10 .6 ¿0,0 18,1 11 .3 11 .3 7.1 5.9 6.3 8.5 ¿-78 1 3 .4 13.3 13.4 11 .2 15 . 2 ¿4.5 ¿3,1 17 ,1 17 .6 14.4 14.2 15 .9 19.5 1? 17 . 2 3- 7 8 12 .4 12 ,2 12 ,3 10* 1 13.8 2 2 .2 ¿0.7 1 5 .L 1 5 .4 12.4 12.0 13.2 15.8 15 . 1 12 .6 13.7 19.3 36 .3 -4 .2 4-73 1- 7 4 2-74 3-74 4-7 4 1-75 2 -1 5 3- 7 5 4-75 1-76 2 -lb 3- 7 6 4-76 1 - 77 2 -1 1 3-7 7 4-7 7 1- 7 8 2-7 8 INITIAL » 92.2 NATI ONAL I NCOME . 10¿*1. 1 2 0 .5 QUARTER BAS I S PREPAREO BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . DECEMBER ¿ 0 , 1978 SOURCES OF DATA NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS DATA Source: 1929-72: 1973 1974 1975-77 U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Washington, D.C. 20230 The National Income and Product Accounts of the United States, 1929-/4, A Survey of Current Business Supplement. Survey of Current Business, July 1976. Survey of Current Business, July 1977. Survey of Current Business, July 1978. The Survey is available from most district offices of the Department of Commerce or from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. 119.2 19 LO UIS INVENTORIES COMPARED WI T H MONTHLY S A L E S * MANUFACTURI NG AND T R AD E 72 . 68 68 64 . 60 60 . 56 56 . 52 52 48 44 40 . 36 36 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 «RATIOS BASED OH S E A S O N A L L Y S HADED AREAS REPRESENT LATEST D AT A PLOTTED: 1969 A DJUSTED PERIODS O C TOB E R OF 1970 1971 1972 1973 DATA. BUSINESS 1974 SOURCE: 1975 1976 U . S . DEPARTMENT 1977 OF 1978 COMME R C E RECESSIONS. PRELIMINARY PREPARED 20 BY FEDERAL RESERVE B A NK OF ST. LOUIS
@FedFRASER