Full text of National Economic Trends : August 2009
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NationalEconomicTrends August 2009 Commercial Bank Lending Data during the Crisis: Handle with Care S ince the financial crisis began in mid-2007, media sources and academics alike have scrutinized data from the banking sector to understand how lending to consumers and firms has changed. “Total loans and leases” by commercial banks are the sum of real estate loans, individual loans, commercial and industrial loans, and other loans. This measure is part of the H.8 data, which provide weekly aggregate balance sheet data for commercial banks with a charter in the United States. If considered over the past three decades, the series appears approximately on trend but slightly erratic during the current recession; total loans and leases remains fairly constant until the end of 2008:Q3, when it increases sharply and then declines. If our goal is to understand changes in lending dynamics, particularly over the past few quarters, does this series imply that commercial bank lending increased in the last few months of 2008 and then bank lending to the public contracted? Not quite. Several reasons suggest reading such data with extreme care.1 First, existing loans and leases at each point in time are equilibrium quantities that depend on the interaction between the supply and demand of credit. Whether the observed decrease in the series is caused by banks restricting their lending or by borrowers demanding less credit during a major recession remains unclear. Second, commercial banks are responsible for only a fraction (about 35 percent) of financial intermediation in the U.S. economy. The H.8 release does not include the loans of other intermediaries (thrifts and non-depository institutions); therefore, just because we do not observe a large contraction in this volume of total loans and leases does not mean that a contraction in the overall economy has not occurred. In fact, evidence suggests that other credit markets have been severely strained.2 Third, since the onset of the crisis, several financial services companies and thrifts that made loans to consumers and firms (but whose loans were not included in the H.8 release) have either become commercial banks or have been acquired by commercial banks. When a com- mercial bank acquires a thrift, an insurance company, or another financial firm, the loans of the target (acquired) company suddenly appear as additional commercial bank loans even though no real change in credit took place in the economy. Many such transactions have occurred since the crisis began, creating an upward shift to the series that cannot be interpreted as an increase in lending. (Take, for example, the acquisition of the banking operations of Washington Mutual by JPMorgan Chase on September 25, 2008.) Fourth, evidence indicates that firms and individuals are taking advantage of their previously unused (but committed) bank credit lines, just as they did in previous periods of credit contraction.3 If banks grant only a handful of new loans but borrowers continue to draw from existing lines of credit available at commercial banks, the end result would appear to be an increase in lending. At the same time, commercial banks may be withdrawing part of their commitments, which would not be recorded in balance sheet and H.8 data. Finally, this series may be affected by the programs implemented by the Treasury and the Federal Reserve (for example, the Troubled Asset Relief Program or the Term Auction Facility) and may have been very different without these interventions. These caveats indicate that caution is necessary when making inferences based solely on aggregate loans data. —Silvio Contessi and Hoda El-Ghazaly 1 See Contessi, Silvio and Francis, Johanna L. “U.S. Commercial Bank Lending through 2008:Q4: New Evidence from Gross Credit Flows.” Working Paper No. 2009-011B, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, April 2009; http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2009/2009-011.pdf. 2 Duke, Elizabeth A. “Containing the Crisis and Promoting Economic Recovery.” Presented at Women in Housing and Finance Annual Meeting, June 15, 2009; www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/duke20090616a.htm. 3 See Morgan, Donald P. “Bank Credit Commitments: Protection from a Crunch?” Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, September/October 1990, 75(5), pp. 51-59; www.kc.frb.org/PUBLICAT/ECONREV/EconRevArchive/1990/3-4q90morg.pdf. Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System. research.stlouisfed.org Contents Page 3 4 7 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 27 Economy at a Glance Output and Growth Interest Rates Inflation and Prices Labor Markets Consumer Spending Investment Spending Government Revenues, Spending, and Debt International Trade Productivity and Profits Quick Reference Tables Notes and Sources Conventions used in this publication: 1. Shaded areas indicate recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. 2. Percent change refers to simple percent changes. Percent change from year ago refers to the percent change from the same month or quarter during the previous year. Compounded annual rate of change shows what the growth rate would be over an entire year if the same simple percent change continued for four quarters or twelve months. The compounded annual rate of change of x between the previous quarter t –1 and the current quarter t is: [(xt /x t – 1 )4 –1] × 100. For monthly data replace 4 with 12. 3. All data with significant seasonal patterns are adjusted accordingly, unless labeled NSA. We welcome your comments addressed to: Editor, National Economic Trends Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis P.O. Box 442 St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or to: stlsFRED@stls.frb.org This issue incorporates revised estimates of national income and product accounts data that were released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) in the comprehensive revision on July 31, 2009. Besides the availability of new and revised source data, the reference year for chain-type price indexes and chained-dollar estimates was changed from 2000 to 2005. The BEA will not release the full history all at once. Charts will be processed as they are made available by the BEA. For more information, see http://www.bea.gov/national/an1.htm. National Economic Trends is published by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Visit the Research Division’s website at research.stlouisfed.org/publications/net to download the current version of this publication or register for e-mail notification updates. For more information on data in this publication, please visit research.stlouisfed.org/fred2 or call (314) 444-8573. updated through 08/07/09 National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth Consumer Price Index Compounded annual rates of change Percent change 9 1.6 1.2 6 0.8 3 0.4 0.0 0 -0.4 -3 -0.8 -1.2 -6 -1.6 -9 -2.0 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 16802 2006 17167 Industrial Production Interest Rates Percent change Percent 2007 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 6 2 1 5 10-Year Treasury 0 4 3-Month Treasury -1 3 -2 2 -3 1 -4 -5 0 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 Unemployment Rate Thousands Percent of labor force 400 10.2 200 9.2 0 8.2 -200 7.2 -400 6.2 -600 5.2 -800 4.2 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 3 updated through 08/07/09 National Economic Trends Real Gross Domestic Product Percent change from year ago 10 5 0 -5 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Industrial Production and Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Indexes Percent change from year ago Index 18 74 Industrial Production (left scale) 12 66 6 58 0 50 ISM (right scale) -6 42 34 -12 -18 26 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Percent change from year ago 12 8 4 0 -4 -8 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Real Change in Private Inventories Percent of GDP 2 1 0 -1 -2 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division 4 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 08/07/09 National Economic Trends Real Final Sales and GDP Real GDP Revisions Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 6 8 Final Sales 4 6 2 4 GDP (bar) Advance Preliminary Final Comprehensive Revision 2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 -6 -6 -8 -8 17167 2007 17532 2008 2009 17898 2008:1 18263 Industrial Production and ISM Index Index 62 8 1 56 6 0 50 4 -1 44 2 -2 38 0 32 -2 26 -4 20 -6 -4 ISM (right scale) -5 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 2008:4 2009:1 Compounded annual rates of change 2 -3 2008:3 Nominal Gross Domestic Product Percent change Industrial Production (bar) (left scale) 2008:2 2009 17167 18263 Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours 2007 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 Average Weekly Private Nonfarm Hours Percent change Hours 34.00 0.75 0.50 33.75 0.25 0 0.00 33.50 -0.25 33.25 -0.50 -0.75 33.00 -1.00 -1.25 32.75 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 Real Change in Private Inventories 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 Inventory-Sales Ratio Billions of 2000 dollars Manufacturing and trade 60 1.50 30 1.46 0 1.42 -30 1.38 -60 1.34 -90 1.30 -120 1.26 -150 1.22 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 5 updated through 08/03/09 National Economic Trends Contribution of Components to Real GDP Growth Percentage points at compounded annual rates 9 6 3 0 -3 -6 -9 -12 -15 07Q3 07Q4 08Q1 08Q2 08Q3 08Q4 09Q1 Consumption Exports Government Imports Inventories Investment 09Q2 Contributions to Real GDP Growth Rate 2007 2008 2009 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd Final Sales 3.40 2.75 -0.51 2.71 -2.94 -4.73 -4.07 -0.19 Consumption 1.35 0.86 -0.39 0.06 -2.49 -2.15 0.44 -0.88 -0.04 -0.66 -0.99 -0.41 -1.30 -3.28 -6.62 -1.82 Fixed Investment Nonresidential Residential Government Federal State and Local 1.10 0.78 0.25 0.19 -0.73 -2.47 -5.29 -0.94 -1.14 -1.44 -1.24 -0.60 -0.57 -0.81 -1.33 -0.88 0.75 0.31 0.51 0.71 0.95 0.24 -0.52 1.12 0.63 0.19 0.56 0.55 0.93 0.49 -0.33 0.82 -0.05 0.15 0.01 -0.25 -0.19 0.30 0.11 0.12 Net Exports 1.36 2.24 0.36 2.35 -0.10 0.45 2.64 1.38 Exports Imports 1.99 1.65 -0.02 1.47 -0.48 -2.67 -3.95 -0.76 -0.63 0.60 0.38 0.88 0.38 3.12 6.58 2.14 0.19 -0.63 -0.21 -1.25 0.26 -0.64 -2.36 -0.83 -0.01 -0.01 0.12 0.06 0.07 -0.22 0.02 0.04 3.59 2.12 -0.72 1.46 -2.68 -5.37 -6.43 -1.02 Change in Inventory Residual Real GDP Growth Research Division 6 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 08/04/09 National Economic Trends Interest Rates Percent 18 15 12 9 10-Year Treasury 6 3-Month Treasury 3 0 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Treasury Yield Curve Percent 4.5 4.0 Jul 2008 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 Week Ending: 07/31/2009 Jul 2009 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 3m 1y . 2y 5y 7y 10y Standard and Poor's 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends Percent change from year ago 75 50 25 0 -25 -50 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 7 updated through 08/04/09 National Economic Trends NIPA Chain Price Indexes Percent change from year ago 6 4 GDP 2 Gross Domestic Purchases 0 -2 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Consumer Price Index Percent change from year ago 8 6 4 Excl. Food and Energy 2 All Items 0 -2 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Producer Price Index, Finished Goods Percent change from year ago 12 8 Excl. Food and Energy 4 0 PPI -4 -8 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Employment Cost Index and Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago 12 9 Comp. per Hour 6 3 ECI 0 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division 8 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 08/04/09 National Economic Trends NIPA Chain Price Indexes Oil & Natural Gas Prices: Spot & Futures Compounded annual rates of change Dollars per barrel Dollars per million btu 156 48 4 132 40 2 108 6 GDP (bar) 0 84 Gross Domestic Purchases -2 -6 Spot Gas (right scale) 12 17167 17532 2009 17898 18263 16 Oil Futures (left scale) 36 2008 24 60 -4 2007 32 Spot Oil (left scale) 2005 8 Gas Futures (right scale) 2006 2007 2005 2006 2007 2008 Note: Futures prices as of 7/31/2009. 2008 2009 2009 Consumer Price Index Consumption Chain Price Index Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 15 10 2010 2010 0 2011 PCE (bar) 10 5 CPI (bar) 5 0 0 Excl. Food & Energy -5 Excl. Food & Energy -5 -10 -10 -15 -20 -15 2007 17167 2008 17532 2009 17898 18263 17167 2007 17532 2008 Producer Price Index, Finished Goods Unit Labor Cost Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 40 18 17898 2009 18263 Manufacturing (bar) 30 12 PPI (bar) 20 6 10 0 0 Excl. Food & Energy -10 Nonfarm -6 -20 -30 -12 2007 17167 2008 17532 2009 17898 18263 17167 2007 17532 2008 Employment Cost Index Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago Compounded annual rates of change 8 17898 2009 18263 9 Benefits 6 4 6 Compensation 3 0 2 Wages and Salaries 0 -3 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 9 updated through 08/07/09 National Economic Trends Employment Percent change from year ago 8 6 4 Payroll Survey 2 Household Survey 0 -2 -4 -6 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Unemployment, Labor Force Participation, and Employment Rates Percent of labor force Percent of population 70 15 Labor Force/Population (right scale) 67 12 Employment/Population (right scale) 9 64 6 61 Unemployment Rate (left scale) 3 58 0 55 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Duration of Unemployment Percent of labor force Weeks 6.00 20 5.25 18 4.50 16 3.75 14 3.00 12 Unemployed < 5 Weeks (left scale) 2.25 10 Unemployed > 15 Weeks (left scale) 1.50 8 Median (right scale) 0.75 6 0.00 4 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division 10 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 08/07/09 National Economic Trends Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Change in Manufacturing Payrolls Thousands Thousands 400 50 0 200 -50 0 -100 -200 -150 -400 -200 -600 -250 -800 -300 2007 17167 2008 17532 2009 17898 18263 Change in Household Employment 2007 17167 2008 17532 2009 17898 18263 Labor Force and Population Thousands Percent change from year ago 2.0 900 600 1.5 90% Confidence 300 0 -300 -600 Pop. 1.0 0.5 -900 Labor Force -1200 0.0 -1500 -1800 -0.5 2007 17167 2008 17532 2009 17898 18263 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 Available Labor Supply and Components Unemployment Rate & Job Openings Rate Percent of labor force Percent 14 11 Percent 90% Confidence 8 10 12 9 10 Unemployment Rate (left scale) 8 8 Available Labor Supply 7 6 5 Job Openings Rate (right scale) 7 4 6 6 3 5 2 Unemployed 4 Want to Work 2 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 2006 4 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 1 2004 16071 2005 16437 2006 16802 2007 17167 2008 17532 2009 17898 2010 18263 18628 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 11 updated through 08/03/09 National Economic Trends Real Disposable Personal Income Percent change from year ago, quarterly data 12 8 4 0 -4 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Real Consumption Percent change from year ago, quarterly data Percent change from year ago, quarterly data 24 12 Durables (left scale) 16 8 8 4 Total (right scale) 0 0 -8 -4 -16 -8 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Retail and Food Services Sales Percent change from year ago, quarterly average 16 12 8 4 0 -4 -8 -12 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 *Data from Jan. 1992 to the present are on a NAICS basis; data prior to Jan. 1992 are on an SIC basis and are not strictly comparable (see End Note). Debt Service Payments and Household Debt Outstanding Percent change from year ago, quarterly data Percent of disposable personal income 18 15 15 14 Debt Service Payments (right scale) 12 13 9 12 6 11 Household Debt Outstanding (left scale) 3 10 0 9 -3 8 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division 12 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 08/05/09 National Economic Trends Real Disposable Personal Income Personal Saving Rate Percent change Percent 6 8 4 6 2 4 0 2 -2 0 -4 2007 17167 2008 17532 2009 17898 18263 Real Consumption 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 Real Consumption Compounded annual rates of change Percent change 4.5 0.9 3.0 0.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 -1.5 -0.3 -3.0 -0.6 -4.5 -0.9 2007 17167 2008 17532 2009 17898 18263 17167 2007 2008 17532 17898 2009 18263 Retail & Food Services Real Durables Consumption & Vehicle Sales Percent change Percent change Millions of vehicles, annual rate 20 6 3 2 Autos and Light Trucks (right scale) 4 1 Total (bar) 18 2 16 0 14 0 -1 -2 -2 Ex. Autos -3 12 Durables (bar) (left scale) -4 10 -6 -4 2007 17167 2008 17532 2009 17898 18263 Consumer Sentiment (U. of Michigan) 8 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 Real Durables Consumption Index Compounded annual rates of change 110 15.0 100 7.5 90 0.0 80 -7.5 70 -15.0 60 -22.5 50 -30.0 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 13 updated through 08/03/09 National Economic Trends Investment Percent of nominal GDP 24 22 Total 20 18 16 Private 14 12 10 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Private Fixed Investment Percent change from year ago 30 24 18 Nominal 12 6 Real 0 -6 -12 -18 -24 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Real Nonresidential Fixed and Equipment & Software Investment Percent change from year ago 30 Equipment & Software 24 18 12 6 Nonresidential 0 -6 -12 -18 -24 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Real Residential Fixed Investment Percent change from year ago 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division 14 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 08/05/09 National Economic Trends Gross Saving Rates and Balance on Current Account (NIPA) Percent of GDP 25 20 Gross Private Saving 15 10 Gross Govt. Saving 5 0 BOCA -5 -10 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 Real Private Fixed Investment Nondefense Capital Goods Orders Compounded annual rates of change Percent change from year ago, excluding aircraft 10 30 20 0 08 08 09 09 10 Orders 10 -10 0 Equipment & Software Investment -20 -10 -30 -20 -40 -30 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 Real Equipment & Software Investment Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 10 20 2009 18263 10 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20 -30 -30 -40 -40 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 Real Residential Fixed Investment 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 Housing Starts and New Home Sales Compounded annual rates of change Millions, annual rate 10 2.2 0 1.8 -10 1.4 -20 1.0 -30 0.6 -40 Millions, annual rate 1.00 0.84 New Home Sales (right scale) 0.68 0.52 Housing Starts (left scale) 0.36 0.2 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 17167 0.20 2007 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 15 updated through 08/03/09 National Economic Trends Govt. Consumption and Investment Govt. Current Receipts and Expenditures Billions of 2000 dollars Percent of GDP 39 2700 2400 Total Expenditures 2100 33 Total 1800 Total Receipts 1500 27 State & Local 1200 Fed. Expenditures 900 21 Federal 600 Fed. Receipts 300 15 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 Government Budgets Billions of dollars National Income Accounts Unified Budget Calendar Years Fiscal Years State and Local 1996 Federal Receipts Expenditures Surplus or Deficit (-) 1045.1 1022.1 23.0 Receipts 1526.4 Federal Expenditures Surplus or Deficit (-) Receipts Outlays Surplus or Deficit (-) 1674.7 -148.3 1453.2 1560.6 -107.4 -21.9 1997 1099.5 1063.2 36.3 1656.2 1716.3 -60.1 1579.4 1601.3 1998 1164.5 1117.6 46.9 1777.9 1744.3 33.6 1722.0 1652.7 69.3 1999 1240.4 1198.6 41.8 1895.0 1796.2 98.8 1827.6 1702.0 125.6 2000 1322.6 1281.3 41.3 2057.1 1871.9 185.2 2025.5 1789.2 236.2 2001 1374.0 1389.9 -15.9 2020.3 1979.8 40.5 1991.4 1863.2 128.2 2002 1412.7 1466.8 -54.1 1859.3 2112.1 -252.8 1853.4 2011.2 -157.8 2003 1496.3 1535.1 -38.8 1885.1 2261.5 -376.4 1782.5 2160.1 -377.6 2004 1601.0 1609.3 -8.3 2013.9 2393.4 -379.5 1880.3 2293.0 -412.7 2005 1730.4 1704.5 25.9 2290.1 2573.1 -283.0 2153.9 2472.2 -318.3 -248.2 2006 1829.7 1778.6 51.1 2524.5 2728.3 -203.8 2407.3 2655.4 2007 1927.3 1905.6 21.7 2660.8 2897.2 -236.4 2568.2 2728.9 -160.7 2008 1974.2 2014.4 -40.2 2475.0 3117.6 -642.6 2524.3 2982.9 -458.6 2007Q3 1932.1 1911.7 20.4 2659.9 2918.7 -258.8 622.3 662.9 -40.6 2007Q4 1951.6 1952.9 -1.3 2682.9 2947.9 -265.0 606.2 713.0 -106.8 -205.9 2008Q1 1963.7 1983.8 -20.1 2590.7 3024.2 -433.5 539.8 745.7 2008Q2 1994.2 2019.8 -25.6 2372.1 3169.0 -796.9 787.9 761.0 26.9 2008Q3 1987.5 2046.5 -59.0 2489.5 3155.2 -665.7 589.7 758.7 -168.9 2008Q4 1951.4 2007.5 -56.1 2447.8 3121.9 -674.1 547.4 879.9 -332.5 2009Q1 1961.4 1998.0 -36.6 2260.8 3220.3 -959.5 442.4 891.3 -448.9 . 2015.2 . 3502.6 . 598.8 903.7 -304.9 2009Q2 . Research Division 16 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 08/03/09 National Economic Trends Federal Debt Federal Surplus (+) / Deficit (-) Percent of GDP Percent of GDP 80 4 Total 70 2 60 0 50 -2 Held by Public 40 -4 30 -6 20 -8 86 88 90 92 94 96 NIPA 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 Unified Budget 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 NIPA: Net government saving. Change in Federal Debt Federal Surplus (+) / Deficit (-), Unified Basis Percent of GDP Billions of dollars, fiscal years 8 750 6 500 4 250 Total 2 0 0 -250 Excl. interest payments Total Held by Public -500 -2 -750 -4 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 Federal Government Debt Billions of dollars, end of month or fiscal year Excludes Agency-issued debt Held by Public Federal Total Reserve Banks Held by Private Investors Foreign and Total International Total Public Debt Held by Agencies and Trusts 2006 8507.0 3663.8 4843.2 768.9 4074.2 2027.3 2007 9007.7 3958.4 5049.2 779.6 4269.7 2237.2 2008 10024.7 4210.5 5814.2 476.6 5332.0 2801.9 March 8371.2 3498.4 4872.8 758.5 4114.0 2084.5 June 8420.0 3622.6 4797.5 766.4 4030.8 1979.8 September 8507.0 3663.8 4843.2 768.9 4074.2 2027.3 December 8680.2 3779.0 4901.2 778.9 4122.1 2105.0 March 8849.7 3795.4 5054.3 780.9 4273.1 2196.7 June 8867.7 3924.7 4943.0 790.5 4152.6 2193.9 2006 2007 2008 2009 September 9007.7 3958.4 5049.2 779.6 4269.7 2237.2 December 9229.2 4092.9 5136.3 740.6 4395.7 2352.9 March 9437.6 4103.6 5334.0 591.2 4742.9 2507.5 June 9492.0 4207.0 5285.0 478.8 4806.2 2635.3 September 10024.7 4210.5 5814.2 476.6 5332.0 2801.9 December 10699.8 4327.2 6372.7 475.9 5893.4 3078.7 March 11126.9 4290.6 6836.3 492.3 6341.7 3267.0 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 17 updated through 08/04/09 National Economic Trends Current Account, Trade and Investment Income Balances Billions of dollars, quarterly rate Percent of GDP 8 60 40 6 Investment Income (left scale) 20 4 0 2 -20 0 -40 -2 Current Account (right scale) -60 -80 -4 -6 -8 -100 Goods and Services (left scale) -120 -140 -10 -12 -160 -14 -180 -16 -200 -18 -220 -20 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 Exchange Rates 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Yen/US$ 100 x (Ecu or Euro/US$) Index, March 1973 = 100 160 375 140 300 120 225 Major Currency Index (left scale) Yen (right scale) 100 150 Euro Ecu (right scale) (right scale) 80 75 60 0 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 Goods Export Shares, 2008 UK 4.20% 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Goods Import Shares, 2008 Mexico 11.84% All Other 28.71% UK 2.77% Mexico 10.20% China 15.95% China 5.46% Japan 6.58% Japan 5.10% Germany 4.27% All Other 29.71% Germany 4.60% France 2.26% Other OECD 17.72% Canada 20.45% France 2.08% Canada 16.03% Other OECD 12.08% Research Division 18 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 08/07/09 National Economic Trends Trade Balance Goods Trade Billions of dollars Percent change from year ago 0 30 -12 20 Exports 10 -24 Goods and Services -36 Imports 0 -48 -10 -60 -20 -30 -72 Goods -84 -40 17167 2007 2008 17532 17898 2009 18263 17167 2007 17532 Current Account Balance Services Trade Billions of dollars Percent change from year ago 0 2008 17898 2009 18263 25 Exports 20 -40 15 -80 10 -120 Imports 5 0 -160 -5 -200 -10 -240 -15 17167 2007 2008 17532 17898 2009 18263 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 Real GDP Growth of Major Trading Partners Compounded annual rates of change United Kingdom Germany 8 12 4 6 0 0 -4 -6 -8 -12 -18 -12 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 07 2007 08 Canada 6 6 4 3 2 0 0 -3 -2 -6 -4 -6 -9 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 09 2009 10 09 2009 10 France 9 07 2008 09 2009 10 07 2007 08 Japan 2008 Mexico 8 12 6 4 0 0 -6 -4 -8 -12 -18 -12 -16 -24 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 07 2007 08 2008 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 19 updated through 07/15/09 National Economic Trends Output per Hour and Capacity Utilization, Manufacturing Percent change from year ago Percent 15 90 Utilization Rate (level) (right scale) 10 80 5 70 Output/Hour (left scale) 0 60 -5 50 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 *Data from 1987 to the present are on a NAICS basis; data prior to 1987 are on an SIC basis and are not strictly comparable (see End Note). 08 09 09 10 Nonfarm Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago 15 10 Nominal 5 Real 0 -5 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Output per Hour, Nonfarm Business and Nonfinancial Corporations Percent change from year ago 9 6 Nonfinancial Corporations 3 Nonfarm Business Sector 0 -3 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division 20 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 08/03/09 National Economic Trends Nonfarm Output per Hour Manufacturing Output per Hour Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 9 9 6 6 3 3 0 0 -3 -3 -6 -6 2007 17167 2008 17532 2009 17898 18263 2007 17167 2008 17532 2009 17898 18263 Selected Component Shares of National Income Percent Percent 75 15 13 73 Corporate Profits (left scale) 11 71 9 69 Proprietors' Income (left scale) 7 67 65 5 Compensation (right scale) 3 63 61 1 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Corporate Profits Percent of GDP 14 12 Profits (Before Tax) 10 8 6 Profits (After Tax) 4 2 0 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 21 updated through 08/03/09 National Economic Trends Nominal GDP Billions of $ 2005. 2006. 12638.4 2007. 2008. 14077.6 2006 1 Real GDP Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2000 $ . 6.5 12638.375 . 6.0 12976.249 . 5.1 13254.059 14441.4 . 2.6 13183.5 8.6 6.5 13398.9 Final Sales Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2000 $ . 3.1 12588.423 . 2.7 12917.095 . 2.1 13234.346 13312.163 . 0.4 12915.938 5.4 Percent change Annual Year rate ago Change in Private Inventories Billions of 2000 $ Last qtr Year/Year ago . 3.2 . 49.953 . 2.6 . 59.423 . 2.5 . 19.469 13341.170 . 0.8 . -25.889 3.0 12851.310 5.9 3.3 65.813 43.548 57.799 . 2 13347.8 5.1 6.6 12962.462 1.4 3.0 12890.967 1.2 2.5 72.544 . 3 13452.9 3.2 5.6 12965.916 0.1 2.2 12898.340 0.2 1.8 67.510 71.724 . 4 13611.5 4.8 5.4 13060.679 3.0 2.4 13027.762 4.1 2.8 31.825 59.423 2007 1 13795.6 5.5 4.6 13099.901 1.2 1.4 13086.383 1.8 1.8 14.463 46.586 . 2 13997.2 6.0 4.9 13203.977 3.2 1.9 13179.586 2.9 2.2 23.297 34.274 . 3 14179.9 5.3 5.4 13321.109 3.6 2.7 13290.306 3.4 3.0 29.797 24.846 . 4 14337.9 4.5 5.3 13391.249 2.1 2.5 13381.108 2.8 2.7 10.321 19.470 2008 1 14373.9 1.0 4.2 13366.865 -0.7 2.0 13363.488 -0.5 2.1 0.619 16.009 . 2 14497.8 3.5 3.6 13415.266 1.5 1.6 13453.465 2.7 2.1 -37.091 0.912 . 3 14546.7 1.4 2.6 13324.600 -2.7 0.0 13354.251 -2.9 0.5 -29.706 -13.964 . 4 14347.3 -5.4 0.1 13141.920 -5.4 -1.9 13193.476 -4.7 -1.4 -37.380 -25.890 2009 1 14178.0 -4.6 -1.4 12925.410 -6.4 -3.3 13055.782 -4.1 -2.3 -113.893 -54.518 2 14149.8 -0.8 -2.4 12892.393 -1.0 -3.9 13049.453 -0.2 -3.0 -141.116 -80.524 . Consumption Billions of 2000 $ Durables Consumption Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2000 $ Private Fixed Investment Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2000 $ Nonresidential Fixed Investment Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2000 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago 6.5 1347.325 . 6.7 7.9 2005. 2006. 8818.999 . 3.4 1105.493 . 5.2 2122.275 . 9073.500 . 2.9 1150.416 . 4.1 2171.281 . 2.3 1453.944 . 2007. 2008. 9313.943 . 2.6 1199.936 . 4.3 2126.279 . -2.1 1544.262 . 6.2 9290.883 . -0.2 1146.310 . -4.5 2018.406 . -5.1 1569.657 . 1.6 2006 1 8986.625 4.5 3.1 1142.277 17.0 5.4 2200.168 9.5 5.8 1424.916 18.0 7.8 2 9035.047 2.2 2.6 1139.363 -1.0 2.3 2189.898 -1.9 3.5 1450.307 7.3 8.2 . . 3 9090.711 2.5 2.5 1152.103 4.5 2.3 2162.182 -5.0 0.9 1466.035 4.4 7.8 . 4 9181.617 4.1 3.3 1167.921 5.6 6.3 2132.875 -5.3 -0.8 1474.517 2.3 7.8 2007 1 9265.135 3.7 3.1 1183.693 5.5 3.6 2118.841 -2.6 -3.7 1489.617 4.2 4.5 . 2 9291.499 1.1 2.8 1189.884 2.1 4.4 2137.687 3.6 -2.4 1530.277 11.4 5.5 . 3 9335.583 1.9 2.7 1204.996 5.2 4.6 2135.557 -0.4 -1.2 1565.843 9.6 6.8 . 4 9363.555 1.2 2.0 1221.172 5.5 4.6 2113.032 -4.2 -0.9 1591.313 6.7 7.9 2008 1 9349.565 -0.6 0.9 1193.169 -8.9 0.8 2079.181 -6.3 -1.9 1598.923 1.9 7.3 . 2 9350.972 0.1 0.6 1175.732 -5.7 -1.2 2064.783 -2.7 -3.4 1604.432 1.4 4.8 . 3 9267.708 -3.5 -0.7 1139.580 -11.7 -5.4 2020.376 -8.3 -5.4 1579.202 -6.1 0.9 . 4 9195.287 -3.1 -1.8 1076.759 -20.3 -11.8 1909.282 -20.2 -9.6 1496.070 -19.5 -6.0 2009 1 9209.213 0.6 -1.5 1087.201 3.9 -8.9 1687.499 -39.0 -18.8 1321.199 -39.2 -17.4 2 9180.455 -1.2 -1.8 1067.468 -7.1 -9.2 1627.509 -13.5 -21.2 1290.621 -8.9 -19.6 . Research Division 22 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 08/03/09 National Economic Trends GDP Chain Price Index Index 100.000 2007. 2008. 106.221 Employment Cost Index Index . 3.3 99.2 . 3.3 102.1 . 2.9 105.2 108.481 . 2.1 2006 1 102.071 3.0 . 2 102.980 . 3 103.763 . 4 Percent change Annual Year rate ago ECI: Wages Index . 3.1 99.2 . 2.9 102.1 . 3.1 105.5 108.2 . 2.8 3.3 100.8 2.4 3.6 3.6 101.6 3.1 3.3 102.5 104.237 1.8 2.9 103.3 2007 1 105.327 4.2 3.2 104.0 2.7 . 2 106.026 2.7 3.0 104.8 3.1 . 3 106.460 1.6 2.6 105.6 3.1 . 4 107.072 2.3 2.7 106.5 2008 1 107.577 1.9 2.1 . 2 108.061 1.8 . 3 109.130 4.0 . 4 109.155 2009 1 2 . 2005. 2006. Percent change Annual Year rate ago ECI: Benefits Percent change Annual Year rate ago Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index . 2.5 99.2 . 4.6 . 2.9 102.1 . 2.9 . 3.4 104.5 . 2.4 108.7 . 3.0 107.2 . 2.6 2.6 100.8 2.8 2.5 100.8 2.0 2.9 3.2 2.8 101.6 3.2 2.8 101.6 3.2 2.8 3.6 3.0 102.5 3.6 3.1 102.5 3.6 2.8 3.2 3.1 103.3 3.2 3.2 103.4 3.6 3.1 3.2 104.3 3.9 3.5 103.1 -1.2 2.3 3.1 105.0 2.7 3.3 104.2 4.3 2.6 3.0 105.9 3.5 3.3 104.9 2.7 2.3 3.5 3.1 106.7 3.1 3.3 105.9 3.9 2.4 107.2 2.7 3.1 107.6 3.4 3.2 106.5 2.3 3.3 1.9 107.9 2.6 3.0 108.4 3.0 3.2 106.9 1.5 2.6 2.5 108.6 2.6 2.8 109.1 2.6 3.0 107.5 2.3 2.5 0.1 1.9 109.1 1.9 2.4 109.6 1.8 2.7 107.9 1.5 1.9 109.661 1.9 1.9 109.3 0.7 2.0 109.8 0.7 2.0 108.1 0.7 1.5 109.726 0.2 1.5 109.5 0.7 1.5 110.0 0.7 1.5 108.3 0.7 1.3 103.263 Exports Billions of 2000 $ 2005. 1305.057 2006. 1422.020 Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2000 $ 6.7 2027.790 . . Nonfarm Output per Hour Imports Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index 6.1 133.862 . Nonfarm Compensation per Hour Percent change Year Annual rate ago Percent change Year Annual rate ago Index 1.7 162.132 . 4.0 . 9.0 2151.204 . 6.1 135.123 . 0.9 168.293 . 3.8 . 8.7 2193.827 . 2.0 137.049 . 1.4 175.248 . 4.1 . 5.4 2123.523 . -3.2 140.897 . 2.8 181.704 . 3.7 2006 1 1388.773 16.5 8.8 2121.325 7.8 6.5 134.832 1.9 1.3 166.506 4.5 4.2 2 1412.067 6.9 8.3 2144.880 4.5 6.6 135.642 2.4 1.7 167.026 1.3 3.9 . 2007. 1546.124 2008. 1629.262 . 3 1414.069 0.6 8.5 2170.548 4.9 7.2 135.086 -1.6 0.3 167.961 2.3 2.9 . 4 1473.171 17.8 10.2 2168.061 -0.5 4.1 134.938 -0.4 0.6 171.651 9.1 4.2 2007 1 1485.881 3.5 7.0 2190.837 4.3 3.3 134.731 -0.6 -0.1 173.407 4.2 4.1 . 2 1504.758 5.2 6.6 2188.125 -0.5 2.0 136.326 4.8 0.5 173.973 1.3 4.2 . 3 1569.896 18.5 11.0 2208.336 3.7 1.7 138.665 7.0 2.6 175.845 4.4 4.7 . 4 1623.961 14.5 10.2 2188.007 -3.6 0.9 138.482 -0.5 2.6 177.765 4.4 3.6 2008 1 1623.423 -0.1 9.3 2174.293 -2.5 -0.8 139.385 2.6 3.5 179.396 3.7 3.5 . 2 1670.431 12.1 11.0 2146.478 -5.0 -1.9 140.980 4.7 3.4 180.150 1.7 3.6 . 3 1655.183 -3.6 5.4 2134.428 -2.2 -3.3 141.732 2.2 2.2 182.680 5.7 3.9 . 4 1568.010 -19.5 -3.4 2038.891 -16.7 -6.8 141.533 -0.6 2.2 184.704 4.5 3.9 2009 1 1434.549 -29.9 -11.6 1821.043 -36.4 -16.2 142.079 1.6 1.9 186.797 4.6 4.1 2 1408.859 -7.0 -15.7 1748.155 -15.1 -18.6 . . . . . . . Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 23 updated through 08/07/09 National Economic Trends Household Survey Employment Thousands 2004 . 2005 . 2006 . 2007 . 2008 . 2007 Change Percent change Annual Year rate ago Nonfarm Payroll Employment Nonfarm Aggregate Hours Percent change Annual Year rate ago Percent change Monthly Annual Year rate rate ago Thousands Change Index 139240 1511 . 1.1 131419 1423 . 1.1 100.2 141714 2474 . 1.8 133699 2280 . 1.7 102.7 144420 2707 . 1.9 136098 2398 . 1.8 105.8 146050 1629 . 1.1 137604 1507 . 1.1 107.3 145368 -681 . -0.5 137046 -558 . -0.4 106.2 . 1.6 . . 2.6 . . 3.0 . . 1.4 . . -1.0 . 1 146081 459 1.3 1.9 137265 498 1.5 1.4 106.8 0.2 0.8 1.8 . 2 145873 -208 -0.6 1.3 137557 292 0.9 1.2 107.3 0.4 1.8 1.5 . 3 145969 96 0.3 1.0 137595 38 0.1 1.0 107.3 0.0 0.0 1.3 . 4 146275 306 0.8 0.4 138000 406 1.2 0.9 107.7 0.4 1.5 1.0 2008 1 146138 -137 -0.4 0.0 137943 -57 -0.2 0.5 107.5 -0.1 -0.5 0.7 . 2 145990 -149 -0.4 0.1 137509 -434 -1.3 -0.0 106.9 -0.6 -2.3 -0.3 . 3 145299 -690 -1.9 -0.5 137004 -505 -1.5 -0.4 106.1 -0.7 -2.8 -1.1 . 4 144046 -1253 -3.4 -1.5 135727 -1277 -3.7 -1.6 104.1 -1.9 -7.4 -3.3 2009 1 141578 -2468 -6.7 -3.1 133662 -2065 -5.9 -3.1 101.7 -2.3 -8.9 -5.4 . 2 140591 -987 -2.8 -3.7 132131 -1530 -4.5 -3.9 99.7 -2.0 -7.8 -6.8 145972 -85 -0.7 1.2 137580 -65 -0.6 1.1 107.3 -0.2 -2.2 1.3 . Jul Aug 145732 -240 -2.0 0.8 137552 -28 -0.2 0.9 107.2 -0.1 -1.1 1.0 . Sep 146203 471 3.9 1.0 137652 100 0.9 0.9 107.3 0.1 1.1 1.4 . Oct 145867 -336 -2.7 0.4 137817 165 1.4 1.0 107.5 0.2 2.3 1.2 . Nov 146665 798 6.8 0.7 138032 215 1.9 0.9 107.7 0.2 2.3 1.1 . Dec 146294 -371 -3.0 0.2 138152 120 1.0 0.8 107.8 0.1 1.1 0.7 2007 2008 Jan 146317 23 0.2 0.2 138080 -72 -0.6 0.7 107.5 -0.3 -3.3 0.8 . Feb 146075 -242 -2.0 0.1 137936 -144 -1.2 0.5 107.6 0.1 1.1 0.9 . Mar 146023 -52 -0.4 -0.2 137814 -122 -1.1 0.3 107.5 -0.1 -1.1 0.3 . Apr 146257 234 1.9 0.4 137654 -160 -1.4 0.2 107.4 -0.1 -1.1 0.5 . May 145974 -283 -2.3 0.0 137517 -137 -1.2 -0.1 106.9 -0.5 -5.4 -0.5 . Jun 145738 -236 -1.9 -0.2 137356 -161 -1.4 -0.2 106.4 -0.5 -5.5 -1.0 . 145596 -142 -1.2 -0.3 137228 -128 -1.1 -0.3 106.2 -0.2 -2.2 -1.0 . Jul Aug 145273 -323 -2.6 -0.3 137053 -175 -1.5 -0.4 106.4 0.2 2.3 -0.7 . Sep 145029 -244 -2.0 -0.8 136732 -321 -2.8 -0.7 105.8 -0.6 -6.6 -1.4 . Oct 144657 -372 -3.0 -0.8 136352 -380 -3.3 -1.1 105.0 -0.8 -8.7 -2.3 . Nov 144144 -513 -4.2 -1.7 135755 -597 -5.1 -1.6 104.1 -0.9 -9.8 -3.3 . Dec 143338 -806 -6.5 -2.0 135074 -681 -5.9 -2.2 103.2 -0.9 -9.9 -4.3 2009 Jan 142099 -1239 -9.9 -2.9 134333 -741 -6.4 -2.7 102.5 -0.7 -7.8 -4.7 . Feb 141748 -351 -2.9 -3.0 133652 -681 -5.9 -3.1 101.9 -0.6 -6.8 -5.3 . Mar 140887 -861 -7.1 -3.5 133000 -652 -5.7 -3.5 100.7 -1.2 -13.3 -6.3 . Apr 141007 120 1.0 -3.6 132481 -519 -4.6 -3.8 100.1 -0.6 -6.9 -6.8 . May 140570 -437 -3.7 -3.7 132178 -303 -2.7 -3.9 99.8 -0.3 -3.5 -6.6 . Jun 140196 -374 -3.1 -3.8 131735 -443 -3.9 -4.1 99.1 -0.7 -8.1 -6.9 . Jul 140041 -155 -1.3 -3.8 131488 -247 -2.2 -4.2 99.1 0.0 0.0 -6.7 Research Division 24 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 08/07/09 National Economic Trends Retail and Food Services Sales Unempl. Rate 2004 . 2005 . 2006 . 2007 . 2008 . 2007 . Billions of dollars 5.5 3833.094 5.1 4078.223 4.6 4294.467 4.6 4435.842 5.8 4404.659 Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago Industrial Production Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago Index . 6.1 103.8293 . . 6.4 107.2289 . . 5.3 109.6790 . 3.3 111.3193 . . -0.7 108.8185 . 5.2 2.6 110.4694 2.2 3.0 111.1307 . . 1 4.5 1095.943 1.3 2 4.5 1101.816 0.5 Treasury Yields (Percent) 3-mo 10-yr . 2.5 1.37 4.27 . . 3.3 3.15 4.29 . . 2.3 4.73 4.79 . 1.5 4.35 4.63 . -2.2 1.37 3.67 0.5 1.8 1.3 4.98 4.68 0.6 2.4 1.4 4.74 4.85 . . . 3 4.7 1108.003 0.6 2.3 3.1 111.7206 0.5 2.1 1.4 4.30 4.73 . 4 4.8 1130.080 2.0 8.2 4.4 111.9566 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.39 4.26 2008 1 4.9 1124.247 -0.5 -2.0 2.6 112.0106 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.04 3.66 . 2 5.4 1128.585 0.4 1.6 2.4 110.7109 -1.2 -4.6 -0.4 1.63 3.89 . 3 6.1 1112.645 -1.4 -5.5 0.4 108.1232 -2.3 -9.0 -3.2 1.49 3.86 . 4 6.9 1039.182 -6.6 -23.9 -8.0 104.4294 -3.4 -13.0 -6.7 0.30 3.25 2009 1 8.1 1024.683 -1.4 -5.5 -8.9 99.0433 -5.2 -19.1 -11.6 0.21 2.74 . 2 9.3 1020.414 -0.4 -1.7 -9.6 96.0396 -3.0 -11.6 -13.3 0.17 3.31 4.7 367.715 0.4 5.3 2.6 111.5406 0.3 3.8 1.3 4.82 5.00 . Jul Aug 4.7 368.282 0.2 1.9 2.6 111.6142 0.1 0.8 1.2 4.20 4.67 . Sep 4.7 372.006 1.0 12.8 4.2 112.0071 0.4 4.3 1.8 3.89 4.52 . Oct 4.8 373.893 0.5 6.3 4.5 111.4196 -0.5 -6.1 1.5 3.90 4.53 . Nov 4.7 379.767 1.6 20.6 5.6 112.0541 0.6 7.1 2.3 3.27 4.15 . Dec 4.9 376.420 -0.9 -10.1 3.3 112.3962 0.3 3.7 1.7 3.00 4.10 3.74 2007 2008 Jan 4.9 376.262 -0.0 -0.5 3.6 112.3389 -0.1 -0.6 2.2 2.75 . Feb 4.8 373.140 -0.8 -9.5 2.4 112.0435 -0.3 -3.1 1.1 2.12 3.74 . Mar 5.1 374.845 0.5 5.6 1.8 111.6495 -0.4 -4.1 0.9 1.26 3.51 . Apr 5.0 376.009 0.3 3.8 2.8 111.0012 -0.6 -6.7 -0.0 1.29 3.68 . May 5.5 376.662 0.2 2.1 1.8 110.6820 -0.3 -3.4 -0.4 1.73 3.88 . Jun 5.6 375.914 -0.2 -2.4 2.7 110.4494 -0.2 -2.5 -0.7 1.86 4.10 . 5.8 373.898 -0.5 -6.2 1.7 110.3760 -0.1 -0.8 -1.0 1.63 4.01 . Jul Aug 6.2 372.192 -0.5 -5.3 1.1 109.1570 -1.1 -12.5 -2.2 1.72 3.89 . Sep 6.2 366.555 -1.5 -16.7 -1.5 104.8367 -4.0 -38.4 -6.4 1.13 3.69 . Oct 6.6 355.037 -3.1 -31.8 -5.0 106.1626 1.3 16.3 -4.7 0.67 3.81 . Nov 6.8 347.707 -2.1 -22.1 -8.4 104.7607 -1.3 -14.7 -6.5 0.19 3.53 . Dec 7.2 336.438 -3.2 -32.7 -10.6 102.3650 -2.3 -24.2 -8.9 0.03 2.42 2009 Jan 7.6 342.017 1.7 21.8 -9.1 100.1154 -2.2 -23.4 -10.9 0.13 2.52 . Feb 8.1 343.438 0.4 5.1 -8.0 99.3593 -0.8 -8.7 -11.3 0.30 2.87 . Mar 8.5 339.228 -1.2 -13.8 -9.5 97.6552 -1.7 -18.7 -12.5 0.21 2.82 . Apr 8.9 338.344 -0.3 -3.1 -10.0 96.9476 -0.7 -8.4 -12.7 0.16 2.93 . May 9.4 339.932 0.5 5.8 -9.8 95.7749 -1.2 -13.6 -13.5 0.18 3.29 . Jun 9.5 342.138 0.6 8.1 -9.0 95.3964 -0.4 -4.6 -13.6 0.18 3.72 . Jul 9.4 . . . . . . . . 0.18 3.56 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 25 updated through 07/15/09 National Economic Trends Consumer Price Index less Food and Energy Consumer Price Index Index 2004 . 2005 . 2006 . 2007 . 2008 . 188.908 195.292 201.583 Monthly/ quarterly Percent change Annual Year rate ago Year to date Index . 2.7 . 196.642 . . 3.4 . 200.883 . . 3.2 . 205.933 . 210.730 . 215.570 . Monthly/ quarterly Percent change Annual Year rate ago Producer Price Index Finished Goods Year to date Index . 1.8 . 148.5 . . 2.2 . 155.8 . . 2.5 . 160.3 . . 2.3 . 166.6 . . 2.3 . 177.3 . Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago . 3.6 . . 4.9 . . 2.9 . . 3.9 . . 6.4 . 207.348 . . 2.9 215.224 . . 3.8 1 204.426 1.0 3.9 2.4 3.9 208.993 0.6 2.3 2.6 2.3 162.6 1.6 6.4 1.9 . 2 206.542 1.0 4.2 2.6 4.0 210.097 0.5 2.1 2.3 2.2 166.0 2.0 8.5 3.4 . 3 207.747 0.6 2.4 2.3 3.5 211.204 0.5 2.1 2.1 2.2 166.9 0.6 2.4 3.6 . 4 210.679 1.4 5.8 4.0 4.0 212.627 0.7 2.7 2.3 2.3 171.0 2.4 10.1 6.8 2008 1 213.007 1.1 4.5 4.2 4.5 213.942 0.6 2.5 2.4 2.5 174.4 2.0 8.1 7.2 . 2 215.358 1.1 4.5 4.3 4.5 215.007 0.5 2.0 2.3 2.3 178.5 2.4 9.9 7.6 2007 . 3 218.620 1.5 6.2 5.2 5.1 216.493 0.7 2.8 2.5 2.4 182.7 2.4 9.7 9.5 . 4 213.910 -2.2 -8.3 1.5 1.5 216.836 0.2 0.6 2.0 2.0 173.4 -5.1 -19.0 1.4 2009 1 212.632 -0.6 -2.4 -0.2 -2.4 217.659 0.4 1.5 1.7 1.5 170.5 -1.6 -6.4 -2.2 . 2 213.335 0.3 1.3 -0.9 -0.5 218.949 0.6 2.4 1.8 2.0 171.1 0.3 1.3 -4.2 2007 Jun 207.023 0.2 2.0 2.6 3.7 210.492 0.2 2.4 2.2 2.3 166.1 -0.2 -2.1 3.2 . 207.338 0.2 1.8 2.3 3.4 210.866 0.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 167.2 0.7 8.2 4.0 . Jul Aug 207.520 0.1 1.1 1.9 3.1 211.159 0.1 1.7 2.1 2.2 166.2 -0.6 -6.9 2.4 . Sep 208.382 0.4 5.1 2.8 3.3 211.587 0.2 2.5 2.1 2.2 167.4 0.7 9.0 4.5 . Oct 209.133 0.4 4.4 3.6 3.5 212.070 0.2 2.8 2.2 2.3 168.6 0.7 8.9 6.3 . Nov 211.166 1.0 12.3 4.4 4.2 212.644 0.3 3.3 2.3 2.4 172.6 2.4 32.5 7.6 . Dec 211.737 0.3 3.3 4.2 4.2 213.166 0.2 3.0 2.4 2.4 171.8 -0.5 -5.4 6.4 2008 Jan 212.495 0.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 213.714 0.3 3.1 2.5 3.1 173.4 0.9 11.8 7.8 . Feb 212.860 0.2 2.1 4.2 3.2 213.859 0.1 0.8 2.3 2.0 174.1 0.4 5.0 6.9 . Mar 213.667 0.4 4.6 4.1 3.7 214.252 0.2 2.2 2.4 2.1 175.6 0.9 10.8 6.9 . Apr 213.997 0.2 1.9 3.9 3.2 214.496 0.1 1.4 2.3 1.9 176.0 0.2 2.8 6.4 . May 215.044 0.5 6.0 4.0 3.8 214.950 0.2 2.6 2.3 2.0 178.6 1.5 19.2 7.3 . Jun 217.034 0.9 11.7 4.8 5.1 215.575 0.3 3.5 2.4 2.3 181.0 1.3 17.4 9.0 . 218.610 0.7 9.1 5.4 5.6 216.162 0.3 3.3 2.5 2.4 183.4 1.3 17.1 9.7 . Jul Aug 218.576 -0.0 -0.2 5.3 4.9 216.534 0.2 2.1 2.5 2.4 182.5 -0.5 -5.7 9.8 . Sep 218.675 0.0 0.5 4.9 4.4 216.784 0.1 1.4 2.5 2.3 182.3 -0.1 -1.3 8.9 . Oct 216.889 -0.8 -9.4 3.7 2.9 216.758 -0.0 -0.1 2.2 2.0 177.6 -2.6 -26.9 5.3 . Nov 213.263 -1.7 -18.3 1.0 0.8 216.868 0.1 0.6 2.0 1.9 172.8 -2.7 -28.0 0.1 . Dec 211.577 -0.8 -9.1 -0.1 -0.1 216.882 0.0 0.1 1.7 1.7 169.7 -1.8 -19.5 -1.2 2009 Jan 212.174 0.3 3.4 -0.2 3.4 217.265 0.2 2.1 1.7 2.1 171.2 0.9 11.1 -1.3 . Feb 213.007 0.4 4.8 0.1 4.1 217.670 0.2 2.3 1.8 2.2 171.1 -0.1 -0.7 -1.7 . Mar 212.714 -0.1 -1.6 -0.4 2.2 218.042 0.2 2.1 1.8 2.2 169.3 -1.1 -11.9 -3.6 . Apr 212.671 -0.0 -0.2 -0.6 1.6 218.594 0.3 3.1 1.9 2.4 169.8 0.3 3.6 -3.5 . May 212.876 0.1 1.2 -1.0 1.5 218.910 0.1 1.7 1.8 2.3 170.2 0.2 2.9 -4.7 . Jun 214.459 0.7 9.3 -1.2 2.7 219.344 0.2 2.4 1.7 2.3 173.2 1.8 23.3 -4.3 Research Division 26 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis National Economic Trends Notes Pages 4, 5: Final Sales is gross domestic product (GDP) minus change in private inventories. Advance, Preliminary, and Final GDP Growth Rates are released during the first, second, and third months of the following quarter. Changes result from incorporation of more complete information. Real GDP is measured in 2005 dollars. The ISM (formerly Purchasing Managers’) Index is a weighted average of diffusion indexes for new orders, production, supplier deliveries, inventories, and employment. Aggregate and Average Weekly Hours are paid hours of production and nonsupervisory employees. The Inventory-Sales Ratio uses nominal (current-dollar) inventory and sales data. Page 6: For information on how to calculate the Contribution of a component to the overall GDP growth rate, see the October 1999 issue of the Survey of Current Business, p. 16. The sign is changed for Imports. Page 7: Ten-year Treasury Yields are adjusted to constant maturity; threemonth yields are secondary market averages. All rates used in the yield curves are adjusted to constant maturity. Standard and Poor’s 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends shows the total return: capital gains plus dividends. Pages 8, 9: Oil (West Texas intermediate) and Natural Gas (Henry Hub) spot and futures prices are listed in the Wall Street Journal. Spot prices are monthly averages of daily prices; futures prices are usually taken from the last trading day of the month. Consumer Price Index is for all urban consumers. The Consumption Chain Price Index is the index associated with the personal consumption expenditures component of GDP. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) covers private nonfarm employers. ECI Compensation refers to a fixed sample of jobs, while Compensation per Hour covers all workers in the nonfarm business sector in a given quarter. In both cases, compensation is wages and salaries plus benefits. Pages 10, 11: Effective with the January 2008 Employment Situation, the establishment survey data for employment, hours, and earnings have been converted from the 2002 NAICS system to the 2007 NAICS system. For more information see http://www.bls.gov/ces/. Nonfarm Payroll Employment is counted in a survey of about 400,000 establishments (Current Employment Statistics). It excludes self-employed individuals and workers in private households, but double-counts individuals with more than one job. The Household Survey (Current Population Survey) of about 60,000 households provides estimates of civilian employment, unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and employment-population ratio. Population is civilian, noninstitutional, 16 years and over. The 90 percent confidence intervals for the unemployment rate (± 0.2 percentage points) and change in household survey employment (± 430,000) measure uncertainty due to sample size. Because the household survey was changed in January 1994, data prior to this date are not strictly comparable. The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced several revisions to the Household Survey on Feb. 7, 2003, with the release of the January 2003 data. For more information, see <www.bls.gov/cps/>. The Job Openings rate is the number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a percent of total employment plus job openings. Page 13: The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index shows changes in a summary measure of consumers’ answers to five questions about their current and expected financial situation, expectations about future economic conditions, and attitudes about making large purchases. The survey is based on a representative sample of U.S. households. Page 15: Gross Private Saving is the sum of personal saving, undistributed corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj (see notes for pp. 18-19), and private wage accruals less disbursements. Gross Government Saving is net government saving (surplus/deficit) plus consumption of fixed capital. Balance on Current Account (NIPA) is net capital transfer payments to the rest of the world plus net lending or net borrowing (international trade and income flows). Pages 16, 17: Government Consumption and Investment is current expenditures on goods and services, including capital consumption (depreciation) and gross investment, as reported in the NIPAs. The Unified Federal Budget Surplus/Deficit differs from NIPA Basis in four main ways: (1) NIPA excludes transactions involving existing assets; (2) NIPA outlays exclude government investment and include consumption of government capital, while unified budget outlays do the reverse; (3) NIPA accounts exclude Puerto Rico and U.S. territories; and (4) various timing issues are handled differently. Outlays and Receipts are from the NIPAs, except as noted. Since 1977, the federal Fiscal Year starts on October 1. Excluded agency debt was 0.6 percent of federal debt at the end of fiscal 1997. Federal Debt Held by the Public includes holdings of the Federal Reserve System and excludes holdings of the social security and other federal trust funds. Federal grants in aid to state and local governments appear in both state and local receipts and federal outlays. Pages 18, 19: The Trade Balance (shown on a balance of payments basis) is the difference between exports and imports of goods (merchandise) and services. It is nearly identical in concept to the Net Exports component of GDP, but differs slightly in accounting details. The Investment Income Balance equals income received from U.S.-owned assets in other countries minus income paid on foreign-owned assets in the U.S. The investment income balance is nearly identical in concept to the difference between gross national product and gross domestic product, but differs in accounting details. The Current Account Balance is the trade balance plus the balance on investment income plus net unilateral transfers to the U.S. from other countries. Pages 20, 21: Output per Hour (Y/H), Unit Labor Cost (C/Y), and Compensation per Hour (C/H) are indexes which approximately obey the following relationship: %(Y/H) + %(C/Y) = %(C/H) with %() meaning percent changes. Unit labor cost is shown on page 9. Real Compensation per Hour uses the CPI to adjust for the effects of inflation. Nonfarm business accounted for about 77 percent of the value of GDP in 2000, while nonfinancial corporations accounted for about 54 percent. Inventory Valuation Adjustments (IVA) remove the effect of changes in the value of existing inventories from corporate profits and proprietors’ income. (This change in value does not correspond to current production and therefore is not part of GDP). Capital Consumption Adjustments (CCAdj) increase profits and proprietors’ income by the difference between estimates of economic depreciation and depreciation allowed by the tax code. Components of national income not shown are rental income of persons and net interest. Sources Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Dept. of Commerce National income and product accounts, international trade and investment data (except by country), auto and light truck sales. Census Bureau, U.S. Dept. of Commerce Inventory-sales ratios, retail sales, capital goods orders, housing starts, exports and imports by country. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Dept. of Labor All employment-related data, employment cost index, consumer and producer price indexes, unit labor cost, output per hour, compensation per hour, multifactor productivity. United States Department of Treasury Unified budget receipts, outlays, deficit, debt. Federal Reserve Board Index of industrial production, treasury yields, exchange rates, capacity utilization, household debt. The Survey Research Center, The University of Michigan Consumer sentiment index. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) GDP for major trading partners (not available on FRED). Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 27
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