Full text of National Economic Trends : August 2003
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NationalEconomicTrends August 2003 Financial Aid and College Choice E ach year thousands of high school seniors make the important decision of where to go to college. With tuition at many schools rising faster than the rate of inflation, financing a college education is becoming increasingly challenging. (In fact, in the United States, the growth rate of college costs since 1990 has been, on average, nearly 3 percent higher than the overall inflation rate.) Offers of financial aid—a complex menu of grants, loans, and work-study—vary by school. Indeed, some students may consider a school’s academic attributes and their projected influence on the student’s lifetime earning potential as less important than the school’s financial aid package. Thus, the way students weight financial aid offers can have a substantial impact on their choice of college. Working with counselors from 510 U.S. high schools, economists Christopher Avery and Caroline Hoxby1 surveyed high-aptitude high school seniors (students likely to gain admission and merit scholarships from selective colleges) to study how students assess financial aid packages. In particular, they sought to determine how financial aid characteristics affect the probability that the student will choose a particular school, taking into account individual attributes: SAT score, GPA, legacy status, etc. Avery and Hoxby assert at the outset that there are distinguishing characteristics across financial aid packages that do not necessarily add value. Nevertheless, they find that approximately 30 percent of the students in their sample responded strongly to what are arguably trivial distinctions between financial aid packages. The first distinguishing characteristic is whether or not a grant is called a “scholarship.” Clearly, the amount of the grant, not its name, should be what matters. (In fact, the authors note that the amount of a grant is actually negatively correlated to it being designated as a “scholarship.”) Nevertheless, Avery and Hoxby find that students are very responsive to this distinction when deciding which college to attend. Students may consider a named scholarship to be more impressive than an unnamed grant when listed on resumes or job applications—perhaps because scholarship connotes merit-based aid and grant connotes need-based aid. The second characteristic Avery and Hoxby consider is whether or not the grant is front-loaded, meaning the student receives more aid in his or her freshman year than in later years. An example would be a grant that gives $10,000 the first year and $2,000 each of the subsequent three years as opposed to a grant that gives $4,000 each of the four years. Avery and Hoxby find strong student response to front-loading. Potential reasons for students to prefer front-loading are clear: Front-loading better allows students to consider the possibility of transferring to a different school after the first year or two; it gives parents more time to save money toward the total cost of college; and it gives parents the opportunity to earn interest on their savings before spending it on college tuition. Whether these factors can explain the strong response to front-loading that Avery and Hoxby document is an arguable point, since it is hard to put a particular value on many of these considerations. One might ask whether or not student sensitivity to these two aspects of financial assistance depends on family background, such as parental income and where their parents went to college. Avery and Hoxby present some evidence that it does. They find that a grant designated as a scholarship significantly attracts students in every income group except those whose parents have a high income or whose parents attended highly selective colleges. Interestingly, they find that student reaction to front-loading depends on neither family income nor the selectivity of their parents’ college. When assessing the financial aid incentives that colleges offer, students and their families must determine how much value they place on the fine distinctions that exist between competing financial aid packages. The empirical evidence suggests that students respond subjectively to financial aid factors that are difficult to value quantitatively. With better awareness of how students respond to various financial aid characteristics, economists, educators, and policymakers can better understand the process of college choice. —Abbigail J. Chiodo and Michael T. Owyang 1 Avery, Christopher and Hoxby, Caroline. “Do and Should Financial Aid Packages Affect Students’ College Choices?” NBER Working Paper No. 9482, National Bureau of Economic Research, February 2003. Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System. Available on the web at research.stlouisfed.org Contents Page 3 4 7 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 27 Economy at a Glance Output and Growth Interest Rates Inflation and Prices Labor Markets Consumer Spending Investment Spending Government Revenues, Spending, and Debt International Trade Productivity and Profits Quick Reference Tables Notes and Sources Conventions used in this publication: 1. Shaded areas indicate recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. 2. Percent change refers to simple percent changes. Percent change from year ago refers to the percent change from the same month or quarter during the previous year. Compounded annual rate of change shows what the growth rate would be over an entire year if the same simple percent change continued for four quarters or twelve months. The compounded annual rate of change of x between the previous quarter t –1 and the current quarter t is: [(xt /x t – 1 )4 –1] × 100. For monthly data replace 4 with 12. 3. All data with significant seasonal patterns are adjusted accordingly, unless labeled NSA. We welcome your comments addressed to: Editor, National Economic Trends Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis P.O. Box 442 St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or to: stlsFRED@stls.frb.org National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing to the Public Affairs Department, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, P.O. Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or by calling (314) 444-8809. Subscription forms may also be completed online at research.stlouisfed.org/order/pubform.php. For more information on data in this publication, please visit research.stlouisfed.org/fred2 or call (314) 444-8573. The entire publication is also available on the Internet at research.stlouisfed.org/publications/net. updated through 08/01/03 National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth Consumer Price Index Compounded annual rates of change Percent change 8 0.8 0.6 6 0.4 4 0.2 2 0.0 0 -0.2 -2 -0.4 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 14610 2000 14976 Industrial Production Interest Rates Percent change Percent 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 8 1.5 7 1.0 6 10-Year Treasury 5 0.5 4 0.0 3 3-Month Treasury 2 -0.5 1 -1.0 0 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 Unemployment Rate Thousands Percent of labor force 600 6.5 500 6.0 400 300 5.5 200 100 5.0 0 -100 4.5 -200 -300 4.0 -400 -500 3.5 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 3 updated through 08/01/03 National Economic Trends Real Gross Domestic Product Percent change from year ago 10 5 0 -5 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 Industrial Production and Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Indexes Percent change from year ago Index 18 74 Industrial Production (left scale) 12 66 6 58 0 50 ISM (right scale) -6 42 -12 34 -18 26 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Percent change from year ago 12 8 4 0 -4 -8 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 Real Change in Private Inventories Percent of GDP 2 1 0 -1 -2 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 Research Division 4 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 08/01/03 National Economic Trends Real Final Sales and GDP Real GDP Revisions Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 8 7 Advance Preliminary Final Annual Revision 6 6 5 GDP (bar) 4 4 Final Sales 3 2 2 1 0 0 -2 -1 14976 2001 2002 15341 2003 15706 Industrial Production and ISM Index Percent change Index Industrial Production (bar) (left scale) 0.0 -0.6 ISM (right scale) -1.2 -1.8 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 2002:3 2002:4 2003:1 2003:2 Nominal Gross Domestic Product 1.2 0.6 2002:2 16071 Compounded annual rates of change 62 10 56 8 50 6 44 4 38 2 32 0 14976 16071 Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 Average Weekly Private Nonfarm Hours Percent change Hours 34.50 0.75 0.50 34.25 0.25 0.00 34.00 -0.25 33.75 -0.50 33.50 -0.75 -1.00 33.25 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 Real Change in Private Inventories 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 Inventory-Sales Ratio Billions of 1996 dollars Manufacturing and trade 1.48 60 1.46 30 1.44 0 1.42 -30 1.40 1.38 -60 1.36 -90 1.34 -120 1.32 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 5 updated through 07/31/03 National Economic Trends Contribution of Components to Real GDP Growth Percentage points at compounded annual rates 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 01Q3 01Q4 02Q1 02Q2 02Q3 02Q4 03Q1 Consumption Exports Government Imports Inventories Investment 03Q2 Contributions to Real GDP Growth Rate 2001 2002 2003 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd Final Sales -0.20 4.13 2.44 -0.06 3.45 1.10 2.25 3.14 Change in Inventory -0.09 -1.39 2.60 1.31 0.58 0.28 -0.82 -0.77 0.97 4.05 2.22 1.22 2.93 1.19 1.40 2.34 -0.72 -1.49 -0.07 -0.15 -0.03 0.65 -0.02 0.97 -0.73 -1.33 -0.66 -0.27 -0.08 0.24 -0.47 0.69 0.02 -0.16 0.60 0.12 0.05 0.41 0.45 0.28 -0.21 1.85 1.04 0.27 0.56 0.85 0.08 1.40 Consumption Fixed Investment Nonresidential Residential Government Federal State and Local 0.07 0.80 0.47 0.47 0.29 0.70 0.05 1.58 -0.28 1.05 0.56 -0.21 0.27 0.15 0.03 -0.18 Net Exports -0.24 -0.28 -0.75 -1.40 -0.01 -1.59 0.78 -1.56 Exports Imports -1.94 -0.99 0.33 1.29 0.45 -0.59 -0.13 -0.30 1.70 0.70 -1.08 -2.69 -0.47 -1.00 0.91 -1.26 0.06 0.42 -0.05 0.26 0.06 0.28 0.08 0.38 -0.29 2.74 5.04 1.25 4.03 1.38 1.43 2.37 Residual Real GDP Growth Research Division 6 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 08/01/03 National Economic Trends Interest Rates Percent 18 15 12 9 10-Year Treasury 6 3-Month Treasury 3 0 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 Treasury Yield Curve Percent 6.00 5.25 4.50 3.75 Jul 2002 3.00 2.25 Jul 2003 1.50 Week Ending: 08/01/2003 0.75 3m 1y . 2y 5y 7y 10y Standard and Poor’s 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends Percent change from year ago 75 50 25 0 -25 -50 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 7 updated through 07/31/03 National Economic Trends NIPA Chain Price Indexes Percent change from year ago 12 10 8 6 4 GDP 2 Gross Domestic Purchases 0 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 Consumer Price Index Percent change from year ago 15 12 9 6 Excl. Food and Energy 3 All Items 0 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 Producer Price Index, Finished Goods Percent change from year ago 20 15 10 Excl. Food and Energy 5 0 PPI -5 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 Employment Cost Index and Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago 15 12 9 Comp. per Hour 6 3 ECI 0 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 Research Division 8 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 08/01/03 National Economic Trends NIPA Chain Price Indexes Oil & Natural Gas Prices: Spot & Futures Compounded annual rates of change Dollars per barrel Dollars per million btu 16 40 5 Oil Futures (left scale) 36 4 3 Gross Domestic Purchases GDP (bar) Spot Oil (left scale) 32 2 1 14 12 28 10 24 8 20 6 4 16 0 Spot Gas (right scale) 12 -1 Gas Futures (right scale) 2 8 2001 14976 2002 15341 2003 15706 16071 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Note: Futures prices as of 7/31/2003. Consumer Price Index Consumption Chain Price Index Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 10 15 8 10 Excl. Food & Energy 6 PCE (bar) 4 5 2 0 0 CPI (bar) -2 Excl. Food & Energy -5 -4 -6 -10 2001 14976 2002 15341 2003 15706 16071 14976 2001 15341 2002 Producer Price Index, Finished Goods Unit Labor Cost Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 22.5 15706 2003 16071 10 15.0 PPI (bar) Manufacturing (bar) 5 7.5 0.0 0 -7.5 Excl. Food & Energy -5 Nonfarm -15.0 -22.5 -10 2001 14976 2002 15341 2003 15706 16071 14976 2001 15341 2002 Employment Cost Index Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago Compounded annual rates of change 15706 2003 16071 6 8 6 Benefits Compensation 4 4 Wages and Salaries 2 2 0 0 13880 1998 14245 1999 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 9 updated through 08/01/03 National Economic Trends Employment Percent change from year ago 8 6 4 Payroll Survey 2 Household Survey 0 -2 -4 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 See the Notes section at the end of this publication for the Feb. 7, 2003, revisions to the Household Survey, and the June 6, 2003, revisions to the Establishment Survey. 04 Unemployment, Labor Force Participation, and Employment Rates Percent of labor force Percent of population 15 70 Labor Force/Population (right scale) 12 67 Employment/Population (right scale) 9 64 6 61 Unemployment Rate (left scale) 3 58 0 55 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 Duration of Unemployment Weeks Percent of labor force 4.50 16 3.75 14 Unemployed < 5 Weeks (left scale) 3.00 12 2.25 10 Unemployed > 15 Weeks (left scale) 1.50 8 Median (right scale) 0.75 6 0.00 4 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 Research Division 10 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 08/01/03 National Economic Trends Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Change in Manufacturing Payrolls Thousands Thousands 300 100 200 50 100 0 0 -50 -100 -100 -200 -150 -300 -400 -200 2001 14976 2002 15341 2003 15706 16071 Change in Household Employment 2001 14976 2002 15341 2003 15706 16071 Labor Force and Population Thousands Percent change from year ago 1300 2.5 975 2.0 650 1.5 Pop. 325 90% Confidence 1.0 0 -325 Labor Force 0.5 0.0 -650 -975 -0.5 2001 14976 2002 15341 2003 15706 16071 13880 1998 14245 1999 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 Available Labor Supply and Components Unemployment Rate & Help-Wanted Index Percent of labor force Percent 11 8.0 95 7.5 90 90% Confidence 10 Index 7.0 9 6.5 Available Labor Supply 6.0 8 Help-Wanted (right scale) 5.5 7 5.0 6 4.5 3.5 3.0 4 3 Want to Work 2 13880 14245 1999 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 75 70 60 55 Unemployment Rate (left scale) 50 45 2.5 40 2.0 35 1.5 1998 80 65 4.0 Unemployed 5 85 30 1998 13880 1999 14245 2000 14610 2001 14976 2002 15341 2003 15706 16071 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 11 updated through 07/31/03 National Economic Trends Real Disposable Personal Income Percent change from year ago, quarterly data 12 8 4 0 -4 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 Real Consumption Percent change from year ago, quarterly data Percent change from year ago, quarterly data 24 12 Durables (left scale) 16 8 8 4 Total (right scale) 0 0 -8 -4 -16 -8 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 Retail and Food Services Sales Percent change from year ago, quarterly average 16 12 8 4 0 -4 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 *Data before January 1992 are not strictly comparable (see End Notes). 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 Debt Service Payments and Household Debt Outstanding Percent change from year ago, quarterly data Percent of disposable personal income 18 15 Debt Service Payments (right scale) 15 14 12 13 9 12 6 11 Household Debt Outstanding (left scale) 3 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 10 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 Research Division 12 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 08/01/03 National Economic Trends Real Disposable Personal Income Personal Saving Rate Percent change Percent 6 3 2 4 1 0 -1 2 -2 -3 0 2001 14976 2002 15341 2003 15706 16071 Real Consumption 13880 1998 14245 1999 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 Real Consumption Compounded annual rates of change Percent change 2.4 8 1.6 6 0.8 4 0.0 2 -0.8 -1.6 0 2001 14976 2002 15341 2003 15706 16071 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 Retail & Food Services Real Durables Consumption & Vehicle Sales Percent change Percent change 8 6 Millions of vehicles, annual rate 15 22 12 21 20 9 4 Durables (bar) (left scale) 6 Ex. Autos 2 0 19 3 18 0 17 -3 -2 16 Autos and Light Trucks (right scale) -6 Total (bar) -4 15 -9 2001 14976 2002 15341 2003 15706 16071 14 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 Consumer Sentiment (U. of Michigan) Real Durables Consumption Index Compounded annual rates of change 120 2003 16071 40 30 110 20 100 10 90 0 80 -10 -20 70 13880 1998 14245 1999 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 13 updated through 07/31/03 National Economic Trends Investment Percent of nominal GDP 24 22 Total 20 18 16 Private 14 12 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 Private Fixed Investment Percent change from year ago 30 24 18 Nominal 12 6 Real 0 -6 -12 -18 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 Real Nonresidential Fixed and Equipment & Software Investment Percent change from year ago 25 20 Equipment & Software 15 10 5 Nonresidential 0 -5 -10 -15 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 Real Residential Fixed Investment Percent change from year ago 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 Research Division 14 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 08/01/03 National Economic Trends Gross Saving Rates and Net Foreign Investment Percent of GDP Percent of GDP 10 24 Overall Saving (left scale) 22 8 20 6 18 4 2 16 Private Saving (left scale) 14 0 -2 12 NFI (right scale) 10 -4 -6 8 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 Real Private Fixed Investment Nondefense Capital Goods Orders Compounded annual rates of change Percent change from year ago, excluding aircraft 9 30 6 20 3 10 04 Equipment & Software Investment 0 0 -3 Orders -10 -6 03 03 -20 -9 -12 -30 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 13880 1998 14245 1999 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 Real Equipment & Software Investment Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 10 2003 16071 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -20 -15 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 14976 2001 2002 15341 15706 2003 Real Residential Fixed Investment Housing Starts and New Home Sales Compounded annual rates of change Millions, annual rate Millions, annual rate 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 20 15 10 16071 1.20 1.16 1.12 1.08 1.04 1.00 New Home Sales (right scale) 1.8 1.7 1.6 5 0 0.96 0.92 0.88 1.5 1.4 1.3 -5 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 14976 0.84 0.80 0.76 Housing Starts (left scale) 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 15 updated through 07/31/03 National Economic Trends Govt. Consumption and Investment Government Receipts and Outlays Billions of 1996 dollars Percent of GDP 1800 35 Total Outlays 1600 Total 1400 30 1200 Total Receipts State & Local 1000 25 Fed. Outlays 800 600 20 Federal 400 Fed. Receipts 200 15 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 Government Budgets Billions of dollars National Income Accounts Unified Budget Calendar Years Fiscal Years State and Local Receipts Expenditures Federal Surplus or Deficit (-) Receipts Federal Expenditures Surplus or Deficit (-) Receipts Outlays Surplus or Deficit (-) 1991 716.0 723.8 -7.8 1072.3 1287.6 -215.3 1055.0 1324.4 -269.4 1992 772.2 777.2 -5.0 1121.3 1418.9 -297.6 1091.3 1381.7 -290.4 1993 823.2 821.7 1.5 1197.3 1471.5 -274.2 1154.4 1409.5 -255.1 1994 873.8 865.2 8.6 1293.7 1506.0 -212.3 1258.6 1461.9 -203.3 1995 917.9 902.5 15.4 1383.7 1575.7 -192.0 1351.8 1515.8 -164.0 1996 960.4 939.0 21.4 1499.1 1635.9 -136.8 1453.1 1560.6 -107.5 1997 1011.3 980.3 31.0 1625.5 1678.8 -53.3 1579.3 1601.3 -22.0 1998 1074.4 1033.7 40.7 1749.7 1705.9 43.8 1721.8 1652.6 69.2 1999 1144.1 1105.8 38.3 1867.2 1755.3 111.9 1827.5 1701.9 125.5 2000 1214.2 1196.2 18.0 2033.9 1827.1 206.8 2025.2 1788.8 236.4 2001 1261.3 1292.6 -31.3 2008.4 1936.4 72.0 1991.0 1863.9 127.1 2002 1304.5 1356.4 -51.9 1873.3 2075.5 -202.2 1853.2 2011.0 -157.8 2000Q3 1225.4 1206.2 19.2 2049.1 1835.9 213.2 491.7 431.3 60.4 2000Q4 1230.8 1231.0 -0.2 2054.1 1860.3 193.8 462.0 464.3 -2.3 2001Q1 1247.3 1263.8 -16.5 2072.9 1899.1 173.8 459.8 482.2 -22.5 2001Q2 1261.1 1293.4 -32.3 2072.3 1927.8 144.5 660.3 466.5 193.7 2001Q3 1253.6 1299.8 -46.2 1896.0 1947.7 -51.7 409.0 450.7 -41.7 2001Q4 1283.2 1313.3 -30.1 1992.3 1971.0 21.3 466.3 501.7 -35.4 2002Q1 1273.3 1329.1 -55.8 1884.7 2030.5 -145.8 412.6 509.2 -96.6 2002Q2 1302.5 1347.6 -45.1 1883.7 2079.3 -195.6 522.6 506.9 15.6 2002Q3 1310.3 1365.0 -54.7 1864.1 2074.6 -210.5 451.7 493.2 -41.5 2002Q4 1331.6 1384.0 -52.4 1860.8 2117.4 -256.6 427.4 536.1 -108.7 2003Q1 1344.0 1410.9 -66.9 1869.8 2145.1 -275.3 397.8 541.7 -143.9 2003Q2 . 1411.1 . . 2240.8 . 527.7 545.5 -17.8 Research Division 16 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 07/31/03 National Economic Trends Federal Debt Federal Surplus (+) / Deficit (-) Percent of GDP Percent of GDP 70 4 Total 60 2 0 50 NIPA -2 40 Held by Public -4 30 Unified Budget -6 -8 20 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 Change in Federal Debt 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 Federal Surplus (+) / Deficit (-), Unified Basis Percent of GDP Billions of dollars, fiscal years 750 8 6 500 4 Total Excl. interest payments 250 2 0 0 Held by Public Total -250 -2 -4 -500 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 Federal Government Debt Billions of dollars, end of month or fiscal year Excludes Agency-issued debt Total Public Debt Held by Agencies and Trusts Total Held by Public Federal Reserve Banks Held by Private Investors Foreign and Total International 2000 5674.2 2235.7 3438.5 511.4 2936.3 1057.9 2001 5807.5 2468.8 3338.7 534.1 2779.7 1005.5 2002 6228.2 2675.7 3552.6 604.2 2924.8 1167.1 March 5773.4 2085.4 3688.0 501.7 3182.8 1106.9 June 5685.9 2190.2 3495.7 505.0 2987.3 1082.0 September 5674.2 2235.7 3438.5 511.4 2936.3 1057.9 December 5662.2 2248.7 3527.4 511.7 2880.4 1034.2 March 5773.7 2339.4 3434.4 523.9 2892.8 1029.9 June 5726.8 2452.6 3274.2 535.1 2722.6 1000.5 September 5807.5 2468.8 3338.7 534.1 2779.7 1005.5 December 5943.4 2549.7 3393.8 551.7 2819.5 1051.2 March 6006.0 2562.4 3443.7 575.4 2849.2 1067.0 June 6126.5 2662.9 3463.5 590.7 2849.8 1101.9 September 6228.2 2675.7 3552.6 604.2 2924.8 1167.1 December 6405.7 2758.3 3647.4 629.4 3018.5 1212.7 March 6460.8 2750.0 3710.8 641.5 3055.6 1250.5 2000 2001 2002 2003 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 17 updated through 07/31/03 National Economic Trends Current Account, Trade and Investment Income Balances Billions of dollars, quarterly rate Percent of GDP 20 2 Investment Income (left scale) 10 1 0 0 Current Account (right scale) -10 -20 -1 -2 -30 -3 -40 -4 -50 -5 -60 -6 -70 -7 -80 -8 -90 -9 Goods and Services (left scale) -100 -10 -110 -11 -120 -12 -130 -13 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 Exchange Rates 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 Yen/US$ 100 x (Ecu or Euro/US$) Index, March 1973 = 100 160 375 140 300 120 225 Major Currency Index (left scale) 100 150 Yen (right scale) 80 Euro (right scale) Ecu (right scale) 75 60 0 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 Goods Export Shares, 2002 UK 4.87% 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 Goods Import Shares, 2002 Mexico 11.56% Mexico 14.29% All Other 22.60% 93 93 UK 3.50% China 10.75% China 3.25% Japan 7.55% Japan 10.43% All Other 24.04% Germany 3.91% France 2.79% Germany 5.37% France 2.42% Other OECD 17.15% Canada 23.60% Canada 17.95% Other OECD 13.99% Research Division 18 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 07/31/03 National Economic Trends Trade Balance Goods Trade Billions of dollars Percent change from year ago 0 25 -5 20 -10 15 -15 Imports 10 -20 Goods and Services 5 -25 0 -30 -5 -35 -10 -40 -45 -50 14976 2001 15341 2002 Exports -15 Goods -20 15706 2003 16071 14976 2001 15341 Current Account Balance Services Trade Billions of dollars Percent change from year ago 0 20 -20 15 2002 15706 2003 16071 Imports 10 -40 5 -60 0 -80 -5 -100 -10 -120 Exports -15 -140 -20 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 Real GDP Growth of Major Trading Partners Compounded annual rates of change Germany United Kingdom 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 01 2001 02 2002 03 2003 04 01 2001 02 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 2001 02 2002 03 2003 04 03 2003 04 03 2003 04 France Canada 8 01 2002 03 2003 04 01 2001 02 Japan 2002 Mexico 12 30 20 6 10 0 0 -10 -6 -20 01 2001 02 2002 03 2003 04 01 2001 02 2002 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 19 updated through 07/31/03 National Economic Trends Output per Hour and Capacity Utilization, Manufacturing Percent change from year ago Percent 15 90 Utilization Rate (level) (right scale) 10 80 5 70 Output/Hour (left scale) 0 60 -5 50 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 Nonfarm Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago 15 10 Nominal 5 Real 0 -5 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 Output per Hour, Nonfarm Business and Nonfarm, Nonfinancial Corporations Percent change from year ago 9 6 Nonfarm Business Sector 3 0 Nonfinancial Corporations -3 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 Research Division 20 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 07/31/03 National Economic Trends Nonfarm Output per Hour Manufacturing Output per Hour Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 2001 14976 2002 15341 2003 15706 16071 2001 14976 2002 15341 2003 15706 16071 Selected Component Shares of National Income Percent Percent 15 77 Corporate Profits (left scale) 13 75 11 73 Compensation (right scale) 9 71 Proprietors’ Income (left scale) 7 69 5 67 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 Corporate Profits Percent of GDP 12 Book Profits (Before Tax) 10 8 6 Economic Profits (After Tax) 4 2 0 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 Note: Economic Profits include IVA and CCAdj; Book Profits exclude them (see Notes). 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 21 updated through 07/31/03 National Economic Trends Nominal GDP Billions of $ 1999. Real GDP Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 1996 $ Final Sales Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 1996 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago Change in Private Inventories Billions of 1996 $ Last qtr Year/Year ago 9274.3 . 5.6 8858.963 . 4.1 8793.899 . 4.3 . 62.755 2000. 9824.6 . 5.9 9191.413 . 3.8 9121.104 . 3.7 . 64.976 2001. 10082.2 . 2.6 9214.540 . 0.3 9258.399 . 1.5 . -61.357 2002. 10446.2 . 3.6 9439.872 . 2.4 9424.375 . 1.8 . 5.162 2000 1 9649.5 5.7 6.1 9097.421 2.6 4.2 9042.883 4.4 4.5 45.335 54.085 . 2 9820.7 7.3 7.1 9205.711 4.8 4.9 9111.141 3.1 4.2 91.496 69.164 . 3 9874.8 2.2 6.0 9218.681 0.6 3.7 9150.447 1.7 3.6 63.136 73.041 . 4 9953.6 3.2 4.6 9243.840 1.1 2.3 9179.789 1.3 2.6 59.938 64.976 2001 1 10028.1 3.0 3.9 9229.932 -0.6 1.5 9243.767 2.8 2.2 -26.918 46.913 . 2 10049.8 0.9 2.3 9193.054 -1.6 -0.1 9234.349 -0.4 1.4 -58.297 9.465 . 3 10097.8 1.9 2.3 9186.413 -0.3 -0.4 9230.535 -0.2 0.9 -61.772 -21.762 . 4 10152.9 2.2 2.0 9248.762 2.7 0.1 9324.945 4.2 1.6 -98.441 -61.357 2002 1 10313.1 6.5 2.8 9363.225 5.0 1.4 9379.350 2.4 1.5 -28.937 -61.862 . 2 10376.9 2.5 3.3 9392.446 1.3 2.2 9377.871 -0.1 1.6 4.931 -46.055 . 3 10506.2 5.1 4.0 9485.579 4.0 3.3 9457.181 3.4 2.5 18.836 -25.903 . 4 10588.8 3.2 4.3 9518.238 1.4 2.9 9483.099 1.1 1.7 25.820 5.163 2003 1 10688.4 3.8 3.6 9551.991 1.4 2.0 9536.181 2.3 1.7 4.761 13.587 . 2 10777.3 3.4 3.9 9608.090 2.4 2.3 9610.588 3.2 2.5 -17.856 7.890 Consumption Billions of 1996 $ Durables Consumption Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 1996 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago Private Fixed Investment Billions of 1996 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago Nonresidential Fixed Investment Billions of 1996 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago 1999. 5964.464 . 4.9 812.539 . 11.8 1595.205 . 7.8 1228.392 . 8.1 2000. 6223.930 . 4.4 878.945 . 8.2 1691.893 . 6.1 1324.199 . 7.8 2001. 6377.231 . 2.5 931.888 . 6.0 1627.414 . -3.8 1255.132 . -5.2 2002. 6576.007 . 3.1 999.884 . 7.3 1577.272 . -3.1 1183.377 . -5.7 2000 1 6151.862 5.3 5.1 879.506 17.8 13.1 1673.617 13.3 7.3 1297.108 15.0 8.3 . 2 6198.213 3.0 4.5 871.338 -3.7 8.4 1700.940 6.7 7.1 1329.083 10.2 8.9 . 3 6256.821 3.8 4.3 888.464 8.1 7.8 1701.667 0.2 5.7 1340.677 3.5 7.8 . 4 6288.822 2.1 3.5 876.479 -5.3 3.8 1691.347 -2.4 4.3 1329.929 -3.2 6.2 2001 1 6326.008 2.4 2.8 900.596 11.5 2.4 1682.070 -2.2 0.5 1311.445 -5.4 1.1 . 2 6348.006 1.4 2.4 912.358 5.3 4.7 1633.538 -11.1 -4.0 1260.978 -14.5 -5.1 . 3 6370.946 1.5 1.8 922.616 4.6 3.8 1615.663 -4.3 -5.1 1241.712 -6.0 -7.4 . 4 6463.964 6.0 2.8 991.988 33.6 13.2 1578.384 -8.9 -6.7 1206.409 -10.9 -9.3 2002 1 6513.825 3.1 3.0 975.898 -6.3 8.4 1576.408 -0.5 -6.3 1188.412 -5.8 -9.4 . 2 6542.422 1.8 3.1 980.664 2.0 7.5 1572.624 -1.0 -3.7 1181.099 -2.4 -6.3 . 3 6609.881 4.2 3.8 1032.423 22.8 11.9 1571.593 -0.3 -2.7 1178.662 -0.8 -5.1 . 4 6637.901 1.7 2.7 1010.550 -8.2 1.9 1588.462 4.4 0.6 1185.336 2.3 -1.7 2003 1 6670.898 2.0 2.4 1005.354 -2.0 3.0 1587.904 -0.1 0.7 1172.105 -4.4 -1.4 . 2 6725.996 3.3 2.8 1057.945 22.6 7.9 1613.419 6.6 2.6 1191.686 6.9 0.9 Research Division 22 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 07/31/03 National Economic Trends GDP Chain Price Index Index 1999. 104.690 Percent change Annual Year rate ago . 1.4 Employment Cost Index Index 142.4 Percent change Annual Year rate ago . 3.2 ECI: Wages Index 140.3 ECI: Benefits Percent change Annual Year rate ago . 3.4 Index 147.6 Percent change Annual Year rate ago . 2.8 2000. 106.890 . 2.1 148.9 . 4.6 146.0 . 4.1 156.0 . 5.7 2001. 109.420 . 2.4 155.0 . 4.1 151.4 . 3.7 163.7 . 4.9 2002. 110.660 . 1.1 160.9 . 3.8 156.4 . 3.3 171.7 . 4.9 2000 1 106.080 3.1 1.9 146.6 5.4 4.6 143.9 4.3 4.2 153.2 8.2 5.4 . 2 106.690 2.3 2.1 148.2 4.4 4.6 145.4 4.2 4.1 155.1 5.1 5.7 . 3 107.130 1.7 2.2 149.7 4.1 4.7 146.7 3.6 4.1 157.0 5.0 5.9 . 4 107.680 2.1 2.3 151.1 3.8 4.4 147.9 3.3 3.9 158.7 4.4 5.7 2001 1 108.660 3.7 2.4 152.8 4.6 4.2 149.4 4.1 3.8 160.8 5.4 5.0 . 2 109.320 2.5 2.5 154.2 3.7 4.0 150.8 3.8 3.7 162.5 4.3 4.8 . 3 109.920 2.2 2.6 155.7 3.9 4.0 152.0 3.2 3.6 164.7 5.5 4.9 . 4 109.780 -0.5 2.0 157.4 4.4 4.2 153.4 3.7 3.7 166.8 5.2 5.1 2002 1 110.140 1.3 1.4 158.8 3.6 3.9 154.8 3.7 3.6 168.6 4.4 4.9 . 2 110.480 1.2 1.1 160.5 4.4 4.1 156.2 3.7 3.6 170.8 5.3 5.1 . 3 110.760 1.0 0.8 161.5 2.5 3.7 156.9 1.8 3.2 172.6 4.3 4.8 . 4 111.250 1.8 1.3 162.7 3.0 3.4 157.7 2.1 2.8 174.7 5.0 4.7 2003 1 111.900 2.4 1.6 164.9 5.5 3.8 159.3 4.1 2.9 178.9 10.0 6.1 . 2 112.170 1.0 1.5 166.3 3.4 3.6 160.3 2.5 2.6 181.3 5.5 6.1 Exports Billions of 1996 $ Nonfarm Output per Hour Imports Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 1996 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index Nonfarm Compensation per Hour Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago 1999. 1036.329 . 3.4 1356.816 . 10.9 112.9 . 2.4 124.3 . 4.4 2000. 1137.199 . 9.7 1535.958 . 13.2 116.2 . 2.9 133.0 . 7.0 2001. 1076.121 . -5.4 1492.010 . -2.9 117.5 . 1.1 136.6 . 2.7 2002. 1058.832 . -1.6 1547.373 . 3.7 123.1 . 4.8 139.8 . 2.3 2000 1 1095.781 7.7 8.8 1464.619 14.7 13.5 114.7 0.0 2.3 130.8 15.0 6.2 . 2 1133.877 14.6 11.4 1528.465 18.6 14.3 116.4 6.1 4.0 131.5 2.2 6.6 . 3 1165.469 11.6 11.6 1578.615 13.8 14.1 116.6 0.7 3.3 134.3 8.8 7.9 . 4 1153.668 -4.0 7.3 1572.152 -1.6 11.1 117.1 1.7 2.1 135.3 3.0 7.1 2001 1 1135.809 -6.0 3.7 1540.311 -7.9 5.2 116.7 -1.4 1.7 136.3 3.0 4.2 . 2 1098.832 -12.4 -3.1 1513.594 -6.8 -1.0 116.6 -0.3 0.2 136.3 0.0 3.7 . 3 1048.017 -17.3 -10.1 1466.988 -11.8 -7.1 117.2 2.1 0.5 136.7 1.2 1.8 . 4 1021.827 -9.6 -11.4 1447.158 -5.3 -8.0 119.3 7.4 1.9 137.2 1.5 1.4 2002 1 1030.560 3.5 -9.3 1477.140 8.5 -4.1 121.8 8.6 4.4 138.1 2.6 1.3 . 2 1065.526 14.3 -3.0 1552.919 22.2 2.6 122.3 1.7 4.9 139.5 4.1 2.3 . 3 1077.659 4.6 2.8 1565.680 3.3 6.7 123.9 5.3 5.7 140.1 1.7 2.5 . 4 1061.584 -5.8 3.9 1593.755 7.4 10.1 124.2 1.0 4.1 141.5 4.1 3.1 2003 1 1058.069 -1.3 2.7 1568.377 -6.2 6.2 124.8 1.9 2.5 142.7 3.4 3.3 . 2 1049.747 -3.1 -1.5 1603.300 9.2 3.2 . . . . . . Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 23 updated through 08/01/03 National Economic Trends Household Survey Employment Percent change Annual Year rate ago Nonfarm Payroll Employment Thousands Change Percent change Annual Year rate ago Nonfarm Aggregate Hours Index Percent change Monthly Annual Year rate rate ago Thousands Change 1998. 131476 1904 . 1.5 125924 3157 . 2.6 99.5 . . 2.5 1999. 133498 2022 . 1.5 128994 3070 . 2.4 101.5 . . 2.1 2000. 136899 3401 . 2.5 131790 2796 . 2.2 103.4 . . 1.9 2001. 136941 42 . 0.0 131830 40 . 0.0 102.1 . . -1.3 2002. 136486 -455 . -0.3 130376 -1454 . -1.1 100.0 . . -2.0 2001 1 137752 424 1.2 0.8 132508 199 0.6 1.1 103.4 -0.2 -0.6 0.2 . 2 137086 -666 -1.9 0.1 132180 -327 -1.0 0.3 102.6 -0.8 -3.2 -0.9 . 3 136707 -379 -1.1 0.0 131712 -468 -1.4 -0.2 101.8 -0.8 -3.1 -1.7 . 4 136218 -488 -1.4 -0.8 130920 -792 -2.4 -1.1 100.6 -1.2 -4.6 -2.9 2002 1 136128 -90 -0.3 -1.2 130523 -397 -1.2 -1.5 100.4 -0.1 -0.5 -2.9 . 2 136355 227 0.7 -0.5 130403 -120 -0.4 -1.3 100.3 -0.1 -0.5 -2.2 . 3 136804 449 1.3 0.1 130239 -164 -0.5 -1.1 99.8 -0.5 -1.8 -1.9 . 4 136656 -148 -0.4 0.3 130338 99 0.3 -0.4 99.6 -0.3 -1.1 -1.0 2003 1 137431 774 2.3 1.0 130225 -113 -0.3 -0.2 99.1 -0.4 -1.7 -1.3 . 2 137637 207 0.6 0.9 129987 -238 -0.7 -0.3 98.7 -0.4 -1.6 -1.6 2001 Jul 137006 137 1.2 0.4 131867 -197 -1.8 -0.1 102.3 -0.1 -1.2 -1.3 . Aug 136256 -750 -6.4 -0.3 131719 -148 -1.3 -0.2 101.8 -0.5 -5.7 -1.5 . Sep 136858 602 5.4 -0.0 131550 -169 -1.5 -0.4 101.2 -0.6 -6.8 -2.3 . Oct 136370 -488 -4.2 -0.5 131198 -352 -3.2 -0.7 100.6 -0.6 -6.9 -3.2 . Nov 136218 -152 -1.3 -0.8 130900 -298 -2.7 -1.1 100.5 -0.1 -1.2 -3.1 . Dec 136067 -151 -1.3 -1.1 130661 -239 -2.2 -1.3 100.6 0.1 1.2 -2.4 2002 Jan 135791 -276 -2.4 -1.5 130578 -83 -0.8 -1.4 100.3 -0.3 -3.5 -3.3 . Feb 136450 659 6.0 -0.9 130510 -68 -0.6 -1.5 100.5 0.2 2.4 -2.7 . Mar 136143 -307 -2.7 -1.2 130481 -29 -0.3 -1.5 100.5 0.0 0.0 -2.6 . Apr 136196 53 0.5 -0.8 130415 -66 -0.6 -1.4 100.3 -0.2 -2.4 -2.3 . May 136487 291 2.6 -0.4 130411 -4 -0.0 -1.4 100.2 -0.1 -1.2 -2.3 . Jun 136383 -104 -0.9 -0.4 130383 -28 -0.3 -1.3 100.4 0.2 2.4 -2.0 . Jul 136343 -40 -0.4 -0.5 130204 -179 -1.6 -1.3 99.7 -0.7 -8.1 -2.5 . Aug 136757 414 3.7 0.4 130224 20 0.2 -1.1 99.9 0.2 2.4 -1.9 . Sep 137312 555 5.0 0.3 130289 65 0.6 -1.0 99.9 0.0 0.0 -1.3 . Oct 136988 -324 -2.8 0.5 130408 119 1.1 -0.6 99.7 -0.2 -2.4 -0.9 . Nov 136542 -446 -3.8 0.2 130409 1 0.0 -0.4 99.6 -0.1 -1.2 -0.9 . Dec 136439 -103 -0.9 0.3 130198 -211 -1.9 -0.4 99.4 -0.2 -2.4 -1.2 2003 Jan 137536 1097 10.1 1.3 130356 158 1.5 -0.2 99.4 0.0 0.0 -0.9 . Feb 137408 -128 -1.1 0.7 130235 -121 -1.1 -0.2 99.0 -0.4 -4.7 -1.5 . Mar 137348 -60 -0.5 0.9 130084 -151 -1.4 -0.3 99.0 0.0 0.0 -1.5 . Apr 137687 339 3.0 1.1 130062 -22 -0.2 -0.3 98.8 -0.2 -2.4 -1.5 . May 137487 -200 -1.7 0.7 129986 -76 -0.7 -0.3 98.7 -0.1 -1.2 -1.5 . Jun 137738 251 2.2 1.0 129914 -72 -0.7 -0.4 98.7 0.0 0.0 -1.7 . Jul 137478 -260 -2.2 0.8 129870 -44 -0.4 -0.3 98.3 -0.4 -4.8 -1.4 Research Division 24 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 08/01/03 National Economic Trends Retail and Food Services Sales Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago Industrial Production Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago Treasury Yields Unempl. Rate Billions of dollars 1998. 4.5 2918.226 . . 4.9 105.622 . . 5.6 4.78 5.26 1999. 4.2 3161.948 . . 8.4 110.131 . . 4.3 4.64 5.64 2000. 4.0 3374.243 . . 6.7 115.252 . . 4.7 5.82 6.03 2001. 4.8 3471.756 . . 2.9 111.229 . . -3.5 3.39 5.02 2002. 5.8 3582.174 . . 3.2 110.381 . . -0.8 1.60 4.61 2001 1 4.2 856.706 0.8 3.0 2.2 113.631 -1.6 -6.1 -0.2 4.82 5.05 . 2 4.5 863.764 0.8 3.3 3.1 111.847 -1.6 -6.1 -3.4 3.66 5.27 . 3 4.8 862.246 -0.2 -0.7 1.7 110.542 -1.2 -4.6 -4.6 3.17 4.98 . 4 5.6 889.040 3.1 13.0 4.6 108.895 -1.5 -5.8 -5.7 1.91 4.77 2002 1 5.6 879.850 -1.0 -4.1 2.7 109.268 0.3 1.4 -3.8 1.72 5.08 . 2 5.8 889.510 1.1 4.5 3.0 110.459 1.1 4.4 -1.2 1.72 5.10 . 3 5.8 905.833 1.8 7.5 5.1 111.375 0.8 3.4 0.8 1.64 4.26 . 4 5.9 906.981 0.1 0.5 2.0 110.422 -0.9 -3.4 1.4 1.33 4.01 2003 1 5.8 919.353 1.4 5.6 4.5 110.496 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.16 3.92 . 2 6.2 927.906 0.9 3.8 4.3 109.594 -0.8 -3.2 -0.8 1.04 3.62 2001 Jul 4.6 288.146 0.1 1.5 2.4 110.996 -0.1 -1.6 -4.3 3.51 5.24 . Aug 4.9 289.550 0.5 6.0 3.1 110.696 -0.3 -3.2 -4.3 3.36 4.97 . Sep 5.0 284.550 -1.7 -18.9 -0.2 109.933 -0.7 -8.0 -5.3 2.64 4.73 . Oct 5.4 301.990 6.1 104.2 6.4 109.512 -0.4 -4.5 -5.3 2.16 4.57 . Nov 5.6 293.741 -2.7 -28.3 3.8 108.845 -0.6 -7.1 -5.8 1.87 4.65 . Dec 5.8 293.309 -0.1 -1.8 3.4 108.327 -0.5 -5.6 -5.9 1.69 5.09 2002 Jan Index (Percent) 3-mo 10-yr 5.6 292.393 -0.3 -3.7 2.1 108.967 0.6 7.3 -4.6 1.65 5.04 . Feb 5.6 293.878 0.5 6.3 2.7 109.197 0.2 2.6 -3.9 1.73 4.91 . Mar 5.7 293.579 -0.1 -1.2 3.3 109.641 0.4 5.0 -3.0 1.79 5.28 . Apr 5.9 297.827 1.4 18.8 3.8 110.113 0.4 5.3 -2.2 1.72 5.21 . May 5.8 293.870 -1.3 -14.8 1.7 110.447 0.3 3.7 -1.3 1.73 5.16 . Jun 5.8 297.813 1.3 17.3 3.5 110.818 0.3 4.1 -0.3 1.70 4.93 . Jul 5.8 302.350 1.5 19.9 4.9 111.577 0.7 8.5 0.5 1.68 4.65 . Aug 5.8 304.269 0.6 7.9 5.1 111.305 -0.2 -2.9 0.6 1.62 4.26 . Sep 5.7 299.214 -1.7 -18.2 5.2 111.242 -0.1 -0.7 1.2 1.63 3.87 . Oct 5.8 299.458 0.1 1.0 -0.8 110.580 -0.6 -6.9 1.0 1.58 3.94 . Nov 5.9 301.707 0.8 9.4 2.7 110.797 0.2 2.4 1.8 1.23 4.05 . Dec 6.0 305.816 1.4 17.6 4.3 109.889 -0.8 -9.4 1.4 1.19 4.03 2003 Jan 4.05 5.7 307.045 0.4 4.9 5.0 110.670 0.7 8.9 1.6 1.17 . Feb 5.8 302.741 -1.4 -15.6 3.0 110.735 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.17 3.90 . Mar 5.8 309.567 2.3 30.7 5.4 110.082 -0.6 -6.9 0.4 1.13 3.81 . Apr 6.0 308.675 -0.3 -3.4 3.6 109.521 -0.5 -5.9 -0.5 1.13 3.96 . May 6.1 308.814 0.0 0.5 5.1 109.584 0.1 0.7 -0.8 1.07 3.57 . Jun 6.4 310.417 0.5 6.4 4.2 109.678 0.1 1.0 -1.0 0.92 3.33 . Jul 6.2 . . . . . . . . 0.90 3.98 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 25 updated through 07/31/03 National Economic Trends Consumer Price Index less Food and Energy Consumer Price Index Index Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year Year quarterly rate ago to date Index Producer Price Index Finished Goods Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year Year quarterly rate ago to date Index Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago 1998. 163.0 . . 1.5 . 173.4 . . 2.3 . 130.7 . . -0.9 1999. 166.6 . . 2.2 . 177.0 . . 2.1 . 133.0 . . 1.8 2000. 172.2 . . 3.4 . 181.3 . . 2.4 . 138.0 . . 3.7 2001. 177.1 . . 2.8 . 186.1 . . 2.7 . 140.7 . . 2.0 2002. 179.9 . . 1.6 . 190.4 . . 2.3 . 138.9 . . -1.3 2001 1 175.9 0.9 3.8 3.4 3.8 184.3 0.7 2.9 2.7 2.9 141.7 1.3 5.4 4.0 . 2 177.3 0.8 3.2 3.4 3.5 185.5 0.6 2.6 2.6 2.8 142.0 0.2 0.8 3.4 . 3 177.7 0.2 1.0 2.7 2.7 186.7 0.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 140.7 -0.9 -3.5 1.6 . 4 177.4 -0.2 -0.6 1.8 1.8 188.0 0.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 138.4 -1.7 -6.6 -1.1 2002 1 178.0 0.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 189.0 0.5 2.1 2.5 2.1 138.3 -0.0 -0.1 -2.4 . 2 179.5 0.9 3.5 1.3 2.4 190.0 0.5 2.1 2.4 2.1 138.7 0.2 1.0 -2.3 . 3 180.5 0.5 2.2 1.6 2.3 191.0 0.5 2.2 2.3 2.2 138.7 0.0 0.2 -1.4 . 4 181.4 0.5 2.0 2.2 2.2 191.8 0.4 1.8 2.1 2.1 139.7 0.7 2.8 1.0 2003 1 183.1 1.0 3.9 2.9 3.9 192.4 0.3 1.3 1.8 1.3 143.0 2.4 9.9 3.4 . 2 183.4 0.1 0.6 2.2 2.2 192.8 0.2 0.8 1.5 1.0 142.3 -0.5 -2.1 2.6 2001 Jun 177.9 0.3 3.4 3.3 3.8 186.0 0.3 4.0 2.7 3.0 141.7 -0.4 -4.9 2.6 . Jul 177.5 -0.2 -2.7 2.8 2.9 186.4 0.2 2.6 2.7 2.9 140.2 -1.1 -12.0 1.4 . Aug 177.5 0.0 0.0 2.8 2.5 186.7 0.2 1.9 2.6 2.8 140.7 0.4 4.4 2.0 . Sep 178.1 0.3 4.1 2.6 2.7 187.1 0.2 2.6 2.6 2.8 141.3 0.4 5.2 1.6 . Oct 177.6 -0.3 -3.3 2.1 2.1 187.4 0.2 1.9 2.6 2.7 139.1 -1.6 -17.2 -0.3 . Nov 177.4 -0.1 -1.3 1.8 1.8 188.1 0.4 4.6 2.7 2.9 138.3 -0.6 -6.7 -1.2 . Dec 177.3 -0.1 -0.7 1.5 1.5 188.4 0.2 1.9 2.8 2.8 137.7 -0.4 -5.1 -1.7 2002 Jan -2.8 177.6 0.2 2.0 1.1 2.0 188.7 0.2 1.9 2.6 1.9 137.7 0.0 0.0 . Feb 177.9 0.2 2.0 1.1 2.0 189.0 0.2 1.9 2.6 1.9 138.1 0.3 3.5 -2.7 . Mar 178.5 0.3 4.1 1.4 2.7 189.2 0.1 1.3 2.4 1.7 139.2 0.8 10.0 -1.6 . Apr 179.3 0.4 5.5 1.6 3.4 189.7 0.3 3.2 2.5 2.1 139.0 -0.1 -1.7 -2.1 . May 179.5 0.1 1.3 1.2 3.0 190.0 0.2 1.9 2.5 2.1 138.4 -0.4 -5.1 -2.7 . Jun 179.8 0.2 2.0 1.1 2.8 190.2 0.1 1.3 2.3 1.9 138.6 0.1 1.7 -2.2 . Jul 180.1 0.2 2.0 1.5 2.7 190.5 0.2 1.9 2.2 1.9 138.6 0.0 0.0 -1.1 . Aug 180.5 0.2 2.7 1.7 2.7 191.1 0.3 3.8 2.4 2.2 138.6 0.0 0.0 -1.5 . Sep 180.9 0.2 2.7 1.6 2.7 191.4 0.2 1.9 2.3 2.1 139.0 0.3 3.5 -1.6 . Oct 181.2 0.2 2.0 2.0 2.6 191.6 0.1 1.3 2.2 2.0 140.1 0.8 9.9 0.7 . Nov 181.4 0.1 1.3 2.3 2.5 191.8 0.1 1.3 2.0 2.0 139.7 -0.3 -3.4 1.0 . Dec 181.6 0.1 1.3 2.4 2.4 192.1 0.2 1.9 2.0 2.0 139.3 -0.3 -3.4 1.2 2003 Jan 2.5 182.2 0.3 4.0 2.6 4.0 192.3 0.1 1.3 1.9 1.3 141.2 1.4 17.7 . Feb 183.3 0.6 7.5 3.0 5.7 192.5 0.1 1.3 1.9 1.3 142.8 1.1 14.5 3.4 . Mar 183.9 0.3 4.0 3.0 5.2 192.5 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.8 145.1 1.6 21.1 4.2 . Apr 183.3 -0.3 -3.8 2.2 2.8 192.5 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.6 142.3 -1.9 -20.9 2.4 . May 183.3 0.0 0.0 2.1 2.3 193.0 0.3 3.2 1.6 1.1 141.9 -0.3 -3.3 2.5 . Jun 183.6 0.2 2.0 2.1 2.2 193.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.9 142.6 0.5 6.1 2.9 Research Division 26 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis National Economic Trends Notes Pages 4, 5: Final Sales is gross domestic product (GDP) minus change in private inventories. Advance, Preliminary, and Final GDP Growth Rates are released during the first, second, and third months of the following quarter. Changes result from incorporation of more complete information. Real GDP is measured in 1996 dollars. The ISM (formerly Purchasing Managers’) Index is a weighted average of diffusion indexes for new orders, production, supplier deliveries, inventories, and employment. Aggregate and Average Weekly Hours are paid hours of production and nonsupervisory employees. The Inventory-Sales Ratio uses nominal (current-dollar) inventory and sales data. Page 6: For information on how to calculate the Contribution of a component to the overall GDP growth rate, see the October 1999 issue of the Survey of Current Business, p. 16. The sign is changed for Imports. Page 7: Ten-year Treasury Yields are adjusted to constant maturity; threemonth yields are secondary market averages. All rates used in the yield curves are adjusted to constant maturity. The 30-year constant maturity series was discontinued by the Treasury Department as of Feb. 18, 2002. Standard and Poor’s 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends shows the total return: capital gains plus dividends. Pages 8, 9: Oil (West Texas intermediate) and Natural Gas (Henry Hub) spot and futures prices are listed in the Wall Street Journal. Spot prices are monthly averages of daily prices; futures prices are usually taken from the last trading day of the month. Consumer Price Index is for all urban consumers. The Consumption Chain Price Index is the index associated with the personal consumption expenditures component of GDP. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) covers private nonfarm employers. ECI Compensation refers to a fixed sample of jobs, while Compensation per Hour covers all workers in the nonfarm business sector in a given quarter. In both cases, compensation is wages and salaries plus benefits. Pages 10, 11: Effective with the May 2003 Employment Situation, the establishment survey data for employment, hours, and earnings have been converted from the 1987 SIC system to the 2002 NAICS system. All published NAICS-based labor series have been revised back to at least 1990. For more information see http://www.bls.gov/ces/. Nonfarm Payroll Employment is counted in a survey of about 400,000 establishments (Current Employment Survey). It excludes self-employed individuals and workers in private households, but double-counts individuals with more than one job. The Household Survey (Current Population Survey) of about 60,000 households provides estimates of civilian employment, unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and employment-population ratio. Population is civilian, noninstitutional, 16 years and over. The 90 percent confidence intervals for the unemployment rate (± 0.2 percentage points) and change in household survey employment (± 290,000) measure uncertainty due to sample size. Because the household survey was changed in January 1994, data prior to this date are not strictly comparable. The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced several revisions to the Household Survey on Feb. 7, 2003, with the release of the January 2003 data. For more information, see <www.bls.gov/cps/>. Page 13: The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index shows changes in a summary measure of consumers’ answers to five questions about their current and expected financial situation, expectations about future economic conditions, and attitudes about making large purchases. The survey is based on a representative sample of U.S. households. Pages 14, 15: Overall Gross Saving includes government saving, which is the sum of the government surplus and capital consumption (see notes for pp. 16-17). Net Foreign Investment (NFI) is U.S. investment abroad minus foreign investment in the U.S. Aside from a statistical discrepancy, NFI also equals the difference between gross domestic investment and saving. The comprehensive revision introduced the Equipment & Software component of business investment. Pages 16, 17: Government Consumption and Investment is current expenditures on goods and services, including capital consumption (depreciation) and gross investment, as reported in the NIPAs. The Unified Federal Budget Surplus/Deficit differs from NIPA Basis in four main ways: (1) NIPA excludes Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis transactions involving existing assets; (2) NIPA outlays exclude government investment and include consumption of government capital, while unified budget outlays do the reverse; (3) NIPA accounts exclude Puerto Rico and U.S. territories; and (4) various timing issues are handled differently. Outlays and Receipts are from the NIPAs, except as noted. Since 1977, the federal Fiscal Year starts on October 1. Excluded agency debt was 0.6 percent of federal debt at the end of fiscal 1997. Federal Debt Held by the Public includes holdings of the Federal Reserve System and excludes holdings of the social security and other federal trust funds. Federal grants in aid to state and local governments appear in both state and local receipts and federal outlays. Pages 18, 19: The Trade Balance (shown on a balance of payments basis) is the difference between exports and imports of goods (merchandise) and services. It is nearly identical in concept to the Net Exports component of GDP, but differs slightly in accounting details. The Investment Income Balance equals income received from U.S.-owned assets in other countries minus income paid on foreign-owned assets in the U.S. The investment income balance is nearly identical in concept to the difference between gross national product and gross domestic product, but differs in accounting details. The Current Account Balance is the trade balance plus the balance on investment income plus net unilateral transfers to the U.S. from other countries. Pages 20, 21: Output per Hour (Y/H), Unit Labor Cost (C/Y), and Compensation per Hour (C/H) are indexes which approximately obey the following relationship: %(Y/H) + %(C/Y) = %(C/H) with %() meaning percent changes. Unit labor cost is shown on page 9. Real Compensation per Hour uses the CPI to adjust for the effects of inflation. Nonfarm business accounted for about 76 percent of the value of GDP in 1996, while nonfinancial corporations accounted for about 54 percent. Inventory Valuation Adjustments (IVA) remove the effect of changes in the value of existing inventories from corporate profits and proprietors’ income. (This change in value does not correspond to current production and therefore is not part of GDP). Capital Consumption Adjustments (CCAdj) increase profits and proprietors’ income by the difference between estimates of economic depreciation and depreciation allowed by the tax code. Components of national income not shown are rental income of persons and net interest. NOTE: Several measures of economic activity are now based on the 2002 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), which replaces the 1987 Standard Industry Classification (SIC) system. These include establishment survey data for employment, earnings, and hours; retail sales; manufacturers’ orders, shipments, and inventories, and the business inventory-to-sales ratio. Sources Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Dept. of Commerce National income and product accounts, international trade and investment data (except by country), auto and light truck sales. Census Bureau, U.S. Dept. of Commerce Inventory-sales ratios, retail sales, capital goods orders, housing starts, exports and imports by country. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Dept. of Labor All employment-related data, employment cost index, consumer and producer price indexes, unit labor cost, output per hour, compensation per hour, multifactor productivity. United States Department of Treasury Unified budget receipts, outlays, deficit, debt. Federal Reserve Board Index of industrial production, treasury yields, exchange rates, capacity utilization, household debt. The Survey Research Center, The University of Michigan Consumer sentiment index. The Conference Board Help-wanted advertising index. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) GDP for major trading partners (not available on FRED). 27
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