Full text of National Economic Trends : August 1998
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August 1998
Old Wine at New Prices
The real change in business inventories (CBI)
in the first quarter o f 1998 was a whopping $91.4
billion chain-weighted 1992 dollars at a seasonally
adjusted annual rate. The increase contributed 1.2
percentage points to the spectacular 5.5 percent
growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) for the
quarter (see chart at the bottom of Page 4). However,
the monthly changes in manufacturing and trade
inventories did not appear to be as large; the chart
on Page 5 shows that the monthly inventory-to-sales
ratio did not rise significantly. The monthly increases
in manufacturing and trade inventories in current dol
lar terms are less than they were in 1994-95. But the
CBI component of GDP is larger— both in nominal
and real terms.
GDP is supposed to measure the value of cur
rent quarter production, but since some firms use
accounting practices that report inventory with
drawals at historical (book) cost, an inventory
valuation adjustment (IVA) is necessary to calcu
late CBI. The IVA uses producer price indexes
to adjust the value o f inventory withdrawals to
reflect profits or losses from price changes that
took place since the inventory was produced.
When producer prices rise, IVA is negative and
reduces the change in the CBI. When producer
prices fall, IVA becomes positive.
The accompanying chart shows the change
in book value and the IVA for nonfarm invento
ries. During the 1994-95 inventory accumulation,
producer prices were rising, and IVA deducted
from the change in the book value o f nonfarm
inventories. In 1997 and the first quarter of 1998,
however, falling producer prices made the inven
tory valuation adjustment positive and added to
the increase in the book value of inventories.
As a result, the CBI component of GDP was high
er, even though the book value of inventories
increased less during 1997 and the first quarter of
1998 than in 1994-95.
Both the real and nominal manufacturing and
trade in ventory-to-sales ratios have been low and
steady for the past few quarters. This would lead us
to conclude that inventory levels are not out of line.
So, in one sense, we can argue that the IVA exagger
ates the amount of the inventory buildup. But in a
period of declining prices, there is an additional penalty
for holding too much inventory. When prices are
falling, firms want to minimize their stocks of inputs
and finished goods, deferring purchases and produc
tion until needed. If producer prices continue to fall,
firms might set lower-than-normal targets and reduce
planned inventory levels.
Preliminary data indicate signs of a slowdown in
inventory investment in the second quarter of 1998, but
low inventory-to-sales ratios suggest that an inventory
correction would be fairly mild, unless other forces
combine to dampen consumption and investment.
— Donald S. Allen
Components off Nonfarm
Business In ve nto ry Investment
Billions of Dollars
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
I
1994
I
I
1995
I
I
1----- 1----- 1----- 1----- 1— I— i— I— r
1996
1997
Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System
1998
Tabi eofContents
Page
3
Economy at a glance
4
Output and growth
7
Interest rates
8
Inflation and prices
10
Labor markets
12
Consumer spending
14
Investment spending
16
Government revenues, spending, and debt
18
International trade
20
Productivity and profits
22
Quick reference tables
27
Notes and sources
C o n s u m e r Debt S e rv ic e Susp e nde d
T h e F ed e ra l R e s e rv e Board has suspended publication of the d ata series on
c on sum er debt service previously used on p age 12 of N .E. T. Until th e s e series are
resu m ed , the chart on p ag e 12 will display total household debt outstanding from the
Flow of Funds.
Conventions used in this publication:
1.
C harts and tab les contain d ata that w e re current on August 5, 1998.
2.
S h a d e d a re a s indicate recessions, as d eterm ined by the National Bureau of Econom ic R esearch.
3.
P e r c e n t c h a n g e refers to sim ple p ercent changes. P e rc e n t c h a n g e from y e a r a g o refers to the percent ch a n g e from the s a m e
month or q uarter in the previous year. T h e p e r c e n t c h a n g e a t a n n u a l ra te shows w hat the growth rate would be over an entire ye a r
if the s a m e sim ple p ercent c h a n g e continued for four quarters or tw elve months. T h e p ercent chan ge at annual rate of X betw een
the previous q uarter t - 1 and the current quarter t is:
100 x
X,t-1
For m onthly d ata rep lace 4 with 12.
4.
All data with significant seaso nal patterns are seasonally adjusted, unless labeled NSA .
National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. For more information on data, please call (314) 444-8573.
Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing to the Public Affairs Office, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442
or by calling (314) 444-8808 or (314) 444-8809. Information in this publication is also included on the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board at
(314) 621-1824 or Internet World Wide Web server at http://www.stls.frb.org/fred.
National Economicïïends
Real GDP Growth
Consumer Price Index
Percent change at annual rate
7 - ..................................................
Percent change
0.5 - ...................................
1995
1996
1997
1998
Industrial Production
Interest Rates
Percent
Percent change
1.8
8 - .......
- .................................................................
1995
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls
1996
1997
1998
Unemployment Rate
Thousands
600 -
Percent of labor force
6.0 - ...........................................................
500
1995
1996
1997
4 0 1 ........................... 1........................... 1........................... 1........................... 1
1998
1995
1996
1997
1998
3
NationaìEconomicTrends
Real Gross Domestic Product
Percent change from year ago
Industrial Production and Purchasing Managers’ (NAPM) Indexes
Percent change from year ago
18 - ..... m m
-181.... T
73
74
i..... I...... I......I......I......r.. I...n
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
i.......ì......I...... (......r
83
84
85
86
87
I
88
I...... I......f .....I
89
90
91
92
T
93
T
94
I......I......I......I...... r 26
95
96
97
98
Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours
Percent change from year ago
csa
12-
Real Change in Business Inventories
Percent of GDP
2-
ZXMOS
T
‘ 2 1 ..........
73
74
V
I............ I...........I
75
76
Digitized4for FRASER
77
I........... r
78
79
...... I
80
Ï
81
I............(...........1............ 1...........1............1...........1............ 1.....
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
1...........1........... 1........... 1........... T........... I........... Ï ........... I......
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
UationalEconomicTrends
Real Final Sales and GDP
Real GDP Revisions
Percent change at annual rate
Percent change at annual rate
8 —r
GDP (bar)
■
o-
Advance
Final
97:3
I Preliminary
Annual Revision
t
m .......1..JIIKI
.. L H E M
97:2
97:4
'A
98:1
98:2
Nominal Gross Domestic Product
industrial Production and NAPM Index
Percent change
1.8
I
Index
— 68
- .......................................
Percent change at annual rate
10 - ............................................................
Industrial Production
(bar) («----- )
1997
1996
1998
1996
1997
Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours
Average Weekly Private Nonfarm Hours
Percent change
3 - .......................
Hours
35.0 —
—2 T
33.5 -p1996
[
1997
'
1998
'
1996
Real Change in Business Inventories
Inventory-Saies Ratio
Billions of 1992 dollars
Manufacturing and trade
1.46 - ..................................
120
-
1998
................................................ ........
1996
1997
1998
1996
1997
1997
1998
1998
5
National EconomicTrends
Contribution of Components to Real GDP Growth
Percent change at annual rate
10 —
96Q3
96Q4
97Q1
97Q2
97Q4
97Q3
ExDorts
Consumption
I
Imports
I Inventories
98Q1
98Q2
Real GDP
Government
V//A
Investment
Contributions to Real GDP Growth Rate
1996 .........
3rd
It¡P
1998
1st
2nd
3rd
"ÜT
1st
2nd
Real GDP
2.08
4.23
4.21
3.95
4.20
2.95
5.55
1.42
Final Sales
0.90
5.08
2.86
2.68
5.69
2.13
4.28
3.81
Change in Inventory
1.23
-0 .8 7
1.37
1.28
-1 .5 4
0.85
1.36
-2 .4 8
Consumption
1.25
1.97
2.90
1.08
4.17
1.87
4.08
3.88
Fixed Investment
Nonresidential
Residential
1.36
1.48
-0 .0 7
0.76
0.97
-0 .1 6
0.89
0.78
0.12
1.74
1.53
0.23
1.80
1.89
-0 .0 2
0.56
0.22
0.31
3.05
2.50
0.58
1.89
1.38
0.51
Government
Federal
State and Local
-0 .2 9
-0 .3 2
0.04
0.00
-0 .4 3
0.43
0.37
-0 .1 8
0.55
0.38
0.23
0.15
0.25
-0 .0 8
0.33
0.02
-0 .1 3
0.15
-0 .3 3
-0 .5 6
0.23
0.63
0.41
0.22
Net Exports
Exports
Imports
-1 .5 2
0.25
-1 .7 7
2.54
3.53
-0 .9 6
-1 .4 4
1.04
-2 .4 6
-0 .5 6
1.92
-2 .4 5
-0 .6 0
1.36
-1 .9 4
-0 .3 6
0.59
-0 .9 4
-2 .6 6
-0 .3 8
-2 .2 9
-2 .8 8
-1 .1 0
-1 .8 0
0.00
-0 .2 4
0.10
-0 .0 2
0.06
0.02
0.03
0.50
Residual
6
1997____
National EconomicTrends
Interest Rates
Percent
Treasury Yield Curve
Percent
7.5 7.0 6.5 -
60 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 -
3m
1y
2y
5y
10y
7y
30y
Standard and Poor’s 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends
Percent change from year ago
mm m.-
75 -
"i
73
I
74
r
75
I
76
I
77
I
78
I
79
r' I
80
81
82
I
83
I
84
I
85
I
86
I
87
I
88
I
89
I
90
I
91
I
92
I
93
I
94
I
95
I
96
I
97
I
98
7
NationaìEconomicTrends
GDP Chain Price Index
Percent change from year ago
.............. - ........
12 -
Consumer Price Index
Percent change from year ago
Percent change from year ago
Employment Cost Index and Compensation per Hour
Percent change from year ago
15-
w w
wm......
ii—
!
National EconomicTrends
GDP Chain Price Index
Crude Oil Price
Percent change at annual rate
4 - .................................................
Dollars per barrel
28 - .......................
3 -
12 1
1993
T 1994
1 1995
1 1996
Consumer Price Index
Consumption Chain Price Index
Percent change
Percent change at annual rate
1996
Producer Price Index, Finished Goods
1997
1998
'
1997
1998
Unit Labor Cost
Percent change at annual rate
6 - ..................................................
Excl
Food & Energy
1996
'
3—
Excl. Food & Energy
Percent change
0.75
1 1997
Nonfarm
1998
—6 T
1996
Employment Cost Index
Compensation perHour
Percent change from year ago
8 - ............................ ......................
6 - ..................................................
1997
1
1998
Percent change at annual rate
64—
Wages and SàTariës^ mpensation
Benefits
1993
1994
1995
1996
1 9 9 7 1 1998
1996
1997
1998
9
National EconomicTrends
Employment
Percent change from year ago
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
Unemployment, Labor Force Participation and Employment Rates
Percent of labor force
15 -
Percent of population
......................................................... - 70
Labor Force/Population
- 64
91
I
92
I
93
i
94
i
95
i
96
i
97
i
98
-
61
-
58
r 55
Duration of Unemployment
Percent of labor force
4.50
Weeks
16
3.75
14
3.00
12
2.25
10
1.50
8
0.75
6
0.00
4
10
National EconomicTrends
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls
Change in Manufacturing Payrolls
Thousands
600 - .........
Thousands
60 - ..........
500 —
400 —•
300 —•
200
—
100
—
0 -■
■1001 .................................. r..................................r.....................
1996
1997
-6 0
1998
1997
1996
Change in Household Employment
Labor Force and Population
Thousands
975 - .........
Percent change from year ago
2.5 - ...............................................
0.0 -|
1996
1997
1998
\
I
1993
1994
1998
I
1995
Unemployment Rate
Help-Wanted Advertising
Percent
6.0 -
Index
95 —
I
1996
I
1997
I
1998
Percent
-
8.0
4 0 1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . r. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . r. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I
1996
1997
1998
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
11
National EconomicTrends
Real Disposable Income
Percent change from year ago, quarterly data
Real Consumption
Percent change from year ago
Retail Sales
Percent change from year ago of quarterly average
Household Debt Outstanding
Percent change from year ago
12
Percent change from year ago
National EconomicTrends
Personal Saving Rate
Real Disposable Income
Percent
Percent change
1.25 - ...........
8 - ....................................
1.00 - ...........
0.50 -
I
I ........................................ , .................„
0.25 -
I ......
1!■H ill.lJ .i M ll ...
-0 .2 5 -
.............................
I
-0 .5 0 -
I
-0 .7 5 -
1
- 1.00 - I........... ........................ [.................................... I.............. ...................... 1
1996
1997
1998
Real Consumption
Real Consumption
Percent change
8 - ...........................
1.6
-
1.2
-
Percent change
....................................................
- 0.8 -[................................ I.................................I....................
1996
1997
1998
Retail Sales
Real Durables Consumption and Vehicle Sales
Percent change
2 - .................
Percent change
Consumer Sentiment {U. of Michigan)
Real Durables Consumption
Index
Percent change
20 - ........................................................................................
120
-
...........................................................................................................................
Millions of vehicles, annual rate
13
National Econom icirends
Real Investment
Percent of GDP
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
Real Private Fixed Investment
Percent change from year ago
Real Nonresidential and Producers Durable Equipment Investment
Percent change from year ago
Real Residential Investment
Percent change from year ago
Digitized
14for FRASER
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
NationaiEconom icTrends
Gross Saving Rates and Net Foreign Investment
Percent of GDP
Percent of GDP
—
10
-
8
-
6
-
4
-
2
-
0
--------2
r
Real Private Fixed Investment
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders
Percent change at annual rate
21 - ................................................ -
Percent change from year ago, excluding aircraft
30 - ..................................................................................
- 4
Equipment Investment
-1 0
—
■20 -[.................j..................I................. j..................I................. I
1996
1997
1993
1998
1994
1995
1996
Real Equipment Investment
Real Nonresidential Investment
Percent change at annual rate
Percent change at annual rate
25 - ......................................................
1996
Real Residential Investment
Housing Starts
Percent change at annual rate
Millions, annual rate
1.7 - ............................
20-
1997
1997
1998
1998
15 -
10 -
-10
-
-15 —
■20 -
1.3
j
1996
1997
1998
- r .................................... T...............................................T.............................................. 1
1996
1997
1998
15
National Economic!rends
Govt. Consumption and Investment
Government Receipts and Outlays
Billions of 1992 dollars
Percent of GDP
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
Government Budgets
Billions of dollars
National Income Accounts
Unified Budget
Calendar Years
Fiscal Years
State and Local
Receipts
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
Surplus or
Dericit(-)
Receipts
Expenditures
Federal
Surplus or
Deiicit(-)
Receipts
Outlays
Surplus or
Deficit!)
2 2 5 .6
1 9 8 .0
2 7 .6
2 9 7 .4
3 7 1 .3
-7 3 .9
2 7 9 .1
3 3 2 .3
-5 3 .2
2 5 3 .9
2 1 7 .9
3 6 .0
3 4 3 .1
4 0 0 .3
-5 7 .2
2 9 8 .1
3 7 1 .8
-7 3 .7
2 8 1 .9
2 3 7 .1
4 4 .8
3 8 9 .6
4 3 5 .9
-4 6 .3
3 5 5 .6
4 0 9 .2
-5 3 .7
3 0 9 .3
2 5 6 .7
5 2 .6
4 4 6 .5
4 7 8 .1
-3 1 .6
3 9 9 .6
4 5 8 .7
-5 9 .2
3 3 0 .6
2 7 8 .3
5 2 .3
51 1.1
5 2 9 .5
-1 8 .4
4 6 3 .3
5 0 4 .0
-4 0 .7
3 6 1 .4
3 0 7 .0
5 4 .4
5 6 1 .5
6 2 2 .5
-6 1 .0
5 1 7 .1
5 9 0 .9
-7 3 .8
3 9 0 .8
3 3 5 .4
5 5 .4
6 4 9 .3
7 0 7 .1
-5 7 .8
5 9 9 .3
6 7 8 .2
-7 9 .0
4 0 9 .0
3 5 7 .7
5 1 .3
6 4 6 .4
7 8 1 .0
-1 3 4 .6
6 1 7 .8
7 4 5 .8
-1 2 8 .0
4 4 3 .6
3 7 8 .8
6 4 .8
6 7 1 .9
8 4 6 .3
-1 7 4 .4
6 0 0 .6
8 0 8 .4
-2 0 7 .8
4 9 2 .0
4 0 5 .1
8 6 .9
7 4 6 .9
9 0 2 .9
-1 5 6 .0
6 6 6 .5
8 5 1 .9
-1 8 5 .4
5 2 8 .7
4 3 7 .8
9 0 .9
81 1.3
9 7 4 .2
-1 6 2 .9
7 3 4 .1
9 4 6 .4
-2 1 2 .3
5 7 0 .6
4 7 5 .7
9 4 .9
8 5 0 .1
1 0 2 7 .6
-1 7 7 .5
7 6 9 .2
9 9 0 .5
- 2 2 1 .2
5 9 4 .9
51 1.1
8 3 .8
9 3 7 .4
1 0 6 6 .3
-1 2 8 .9
8 5 4 .4
1 0 0 4 .1
-1 4 9 .8
6 3 1 .4
5 4 5 .5
8 5 .9
9 9 7 .2
1 1 1 8 .5
-1 2 1 .3
9 0 9 .3
1 0 6 4 .5
-1 5 5 .2
6 8 1 .0
5 8 5 .9
9 5 .1
1 0 7 9 .3
1 1 9 2 .7
- 1 1 3 .4
9 9 1 .2
1 1 4 3 .7
-1 5 2 .5
7 2 8 .9
6 4 8 .8
80.1
1 1 2 9 .8
1 2 8 4 .5
-1 5 4 .7
1 0 3 2 .0
1 2 5 3 .2
- 2 2 1 .2
7 8 4 .2
7 0 8 .4
7 5 .8
1 1 4 9 .0
1 3 4 5 .0
-1 9 6 .0
1 0 5 5 .0
1 3 2 4 .4
-2 6 9 .4
8 4 4 .3
7 5 8 .0
8 6 .3
1 1 9 8 .5
1 4 7 9 .4
-2 8 0 .9
1 0 9 1 .3
1 3 8 1 .7
-2 9 0 .4
8 9 4 .4
8 0 7 .0
8 7 .4
1275.1
1 5 2 5 .7
-2 5 0 .6
1 1 5 4 .4
1 4 0 9 .4
-2 5 5 .0
9 4 9 .2
8 5 2 .3
9 6 .9
1 3 7 4 .8
1 5 6 1 .4
-1 8 6 .6
1 2 5 8 .6
1 4 6 1 .7
-2 0 3 .1
9 9 7 .7
8 8 6 .0
1 1 1 .7
1 4 6 0 .3
1 6 3 4 .7
-1 7 4 .4
1 3 5 1 .8
1 5 1 5 .7
-1 6 3 .9
1 0 4 5 .2
9 2 2 .6
12 2 .6
1 5 8 4 .7
1 6 9 5 .0
- 1 1 0 .3
1 4 5 3 .1
1 5 6 0 .5
-1 0 7 .5
1 0 9 4 .3
9 6 0 .1
1 3 4 .2
1 7 1 9 .9
1 7 4 1 .0
- 2 1.1
1 5 7 9 .3
1 6 0 1 .2
-2 1 .9
16
Expenditures
Federal
98
National EconomicTrends
Federal Debt
Federal Deficit
Percent of GDP
70 - m s ....
Percent of GDP
2 0 1 """'"...i........i........r ...." T ....i........i........i........i— ì........i........r
74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96
98
Change in Federal Debt
Federal Deficit, Unified Basis
Percent of GDP
Billions of dollars, fiscal years
Federal Government Debt
Billions of dollars, end of month or fiscal year,
excluding agency - issued debt
H eld by Public
Held by
H e ld b y P rivate Investors
Federal
Public Debt
1994
1995
1996
1997
1995
1996
1997
1998
Total
Foreign and
Total
International
4 6 9 2 .8
1 2 1 3 .1
3 4 7 9 .7
3 5 5 .2
3 1 2 7 .8
6 5 5 .8
4 9 7 4 .0
1 3 2 0 .8
3 6 5 3 .2
3 7 4 .1
3 2 7 9 .5
8 4 8 .4
5 2 2 4 .8
1 4 4 7 .0
3 7 7 7 .8
3 9 0 .9
3 3 8 6 .2
1 0 2 6 .1
5 4 1 3 .1
1 5 9 8 .5
3 8 1 4 .7
4 3 6 .5
3 3 8 8 .9
1 2 6 6 .0
M arch
4 8 6 4 .1
1 2 5 4 .7
3 6 0 9 .5
3 6 9 .3
3 2 3 9 .2
7 2 9 .2
June
4 9 5 1 .4
1 3 1 6 .6
3 6 3 4 .8
3 8 9 .0
3 2 4 5 .0
7 8 4 .2
S e p te m b e r
4 9 7 4 .0
1 3 2 0 .8
3 6 5 3 .2
3 7 4 .1
3 2 7 9 .5
8 4 8 .4
Decem ber
4 9 8 8 .7
1 3 0 4 .5
3 6 8 4 .2
3 9 1 .0
3 2 9 4 .9
8 6 2 .2
9 3 6 .6
M arch
51 1 7 .8
1 3 5 3 .8
3 7 6 4 .0
3 8 1 .0
3 3 8 2 .8
June
5 1 6 1 .1
1 4 2 2 .4
3 7 3 8 .6
3 9 1 .0
3 3 4 7 .3
9 6 0 .3
S e p te m b e r
5 2 2 4 .8
1 4 4 7 .0
3 7 7 7 .8
3 9 0 .9
3 3 8 6 .2
1 0 2 6 .1
Decem ber
5 3 2 3 .2
1 4 9 7 .2
3 8 2 6 .0
4 1 0 .9
341 1 .2
1 1 3 5 .6
M arch
5 3 8 0 .9
1 5 0 6 .8
3 8 7 4 .1
4 0 5 .6
3 4 5 1 .7
1 1 9 2 .5
June
5 3 7 6 .2
1 5 7 1 .6
3 8 0 4 .6
4 2 6 .4
3 3 6 1 .7
1 2 2 1 .9
S e p te m b e r
5 4 1 3 .1
1 5 9 8 .5
3 8 1 4 .7
4 3 6 .5
3 3 8 8 .9
1 2 6 6 .0
Decem ber
5 5 0 2 .4
1 6 5 5 .7
3 8 4 6 .7
4 5 1 .9
3 3 9 3 .4
1 2 7 8 .0
M arch
5 5 4 2 .4
1 6 7 0 .4
3 8 7 2 .0
4 0 0 .0
3 4 3 0 .7
1 2 8 8 .0
June
5 5 4 7 .9
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
17
National Econom ic!rends
Trade and Investment Income Balances
Billions of dollars, quarterly rate
10
-1 0
-2 0
-3 0
-4 0
Exchange Rates
100
Index, March 1973 = 100
X
(Deutsche mark/US$)
Yen/US$
- 450
160
375
140
300
120
225
100
150
80
75
Goods Export Shares, 1997
Goods Import Shares, 1997
All Other
36.58%
All Other
32.36%
Mexico
Mexico
Canada
22.34%
Other OECD
13.83%
Other OECD
9.60%
Canada
19.17%
2.35%
Germany
4.92%
Jacan
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
18
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Germany
3.60%
5.36%
Japan
13.87%
3.72%
NationalEconomicTrends
Trade Balance
Goods Trade
Billions of dollars
Percent change from year ago
0
20
1997
1996
-
...........................- .............................................................
1998
Current Account Balance
Services Trade
Billions of dollars
Percent change from year ago
0
20
1997
1996
-
............................................................................................
1998
Real GDP Growth of Major Trading Partners
Percent ch a n g e at annual rate
United Kingdom
86
-
4-
2
0
- 2 -1"
1996
1
1997
1998
Canada
n
1996
1
1 9 9 7 1
1998
Japan
18
1
1996
1997
1998
19
National EconomicTrends
Output per Hour and Manufacturing Capacity Utilization
Percent change from year ago
15
Percent
- 90
Utilization
- 80
Nonfarm Output/Hr
Nonfarm Compensation per Hour
Percent change from year ago
15
...... I
98
Output per Hour and Multifactor Productivity, Manufacturing
Percent change, annual data
7.5
5.0
2.5
0.0
- 2 .5
-5.0
20
National EconomicTrends
Nonfarm Output per Hour
Manufacturing Output per Hour
Percent change at annual rate
5 - ........................................... -.........
Percent change at annual rate
10 -
.......................................- ..................................................................
4 -
-2 -2
'3 T
1996
1997
1998
1996
1997
1998
Selected Component Shares of National Income
Percent
Percent
i. Profits
Compensation
(— >)
-
71
Proprietors Income
.............................................. - 69
Corporate Profits after Tax (with IVA and CCAdj)
Percent change from year ago
National EconomicTrends
Billions
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1995
1996
1997
1998
Percent chanae
Year
Annual
rate
of $
ago
Billions
of 1992 $
Percent chanae
Year
Annual
rate
ago
Billions
of 1992 $
Percent chanae
Year
Annua
rate
ago
Change in
Business Inventories
Billions of
Last qtr
1992 $
Year/Year ago
6 5 5 8 .1
5 .0
6 3 8 9 .5 6 3
2 .3
6 3 6 8 .8 6 4
2.1
2 2 .1 0 2
6 9 4 7 .0
5 .9
6 6 1 0 .7 4 1
3 .5
6 5 5 1 .2 4 7
2 .9
6 0 .5 5 2
7 2 6 9 .6
4 .6
6 7 6 1 .7 3 2
2 .3
6 7 3 1 .6 9 6
2 .8
2 7 .6 7 8
7 6 6 1 .6
5 .4
6 9 9 4 .7 7 4
3 .4
6 9 6 1 .6 0 8
3 .4
3 0 .0 2 4
81 1 0 .9
5 .9
7 2 6 9 .7 7 9
3 .9
7 2 0 3 .6 8 3
3 .5
6 3 .2 1 0
1
2
7 1 7 0 .8
4 .3
5 .5
6 7 1 7 .4 5 8
1.7
3 .0
6 6 6 1 .7 7 4
2.2
2 .9
5 4 .2 7 8
6 0 .8 5 7
7 2 1 0 .9
2 .3
4 .3
6 7 2 4 .2 0 2
0 .4
1.9
6 7 0 0 .0 1 0
2 .3
2 .7
2 1 .6 6 8
4 7 .3 0 0
3
7 3 0 4 .8
5 .3
4 .6
6 7 7 9 .5 2 8
3 .3
2 .3
6 7 6 1 .6 9 8
3 .7
2.8
1 4 .7 0 5
3 8 .5 6 0
4
7 3 9 1 .9
4 .9
4 .2
6 8 2 5 .8 0 0
2.8
2.1
6 8 0 3 .3 0 2
2 .5
2 .7
2 0 .0 6 1
2 7 .6 7 8
1
2
3
7 4 9 5 .3
5 .7
4 .5
6 8 8 2 .0 0 0
3 .3
2 .4
6 8 6 3 .6 1 8
3 .6
3 .0
1 4 .3 8 5
1 7 .7 0 5
7 6 2 9 .2
7 .3
5 .8
6 9 8 3 .9 0 9
6.1
3 .9
6 9 5 4 .6 8 4
5 .4
3 .8
2 6 .0 6 4
1 8 .8 0 4
7 7 0 3 .4
3 .9
5 .5
7 0 2 0 .0 0 2
2.1
3 .5
6 9 7 0 .2 7 8
0 .9
3.1
4 7 .5 0 7
2 7 .0 0 4
4
7 8 1 8 .4
6.1
5 .8
7 0 9 3 .1 2 4
4 .2
3 .9
7 0 5 7 .8 5 2
5.1
3 .7
3 2 .1 4 2
3 0 .0 2 5
1
2
3
7 9 5 5 .0
7 .2
6.1
7 1 6 6 .6 8 4
4 .2
4.1
7 1 0 8 .0 6 3
2 .9
3 .6
5 6 .3 1 0
4 0 .5 0 6
8 0 6 3 .4
5 .6
5 .7
7 2 3 6 .4 9 7
4 .0
3 .6
7 1 5 5 .5 3 0
2 .7
2 .9
7 9 .0 4 8
5 3 .7 5 2
81 7 0 .8
5 .4
6.1
731 1 .2 4 2
4 .2
4.1
7 2 5 6 .2 6 5
5 .8
4.1
5 0 .9 8 8
5 4 .6 2 2
4
8 2 5 4 .5
4 .2
5 .6
7 3 6 4 .6 3 2
3 .0
3 .8
7 2 9 4 .8 1 2
2.1
3 .4
6 6 .4 9 6
6 3 .2 1 1
1
2
8 3 8 4 .2
6 .4
5 .4
7 4 6 4 .6 6 8
5 .5
4 .2
7 3 7 2 .4 6 8
4 .3
3 .7
9 1 .4 0 1
7 1 .9 8 3
8 4 3 1 .7
2 .3
4 .6
7 4 9 0 .9 5 8
1 .4
3 .5
7 4 4 2 .5 1 5
3 .9
4 .0
4 4 .7 2 1
6 3 .4 0 2
Consumption
Durables Consumption
Percent chanae
1993
1994
1995
Billions
Annual
Year
Billions
of 1992 $
rate
ago
of 1992 $
rate
Nonresidential Investment
Private Fixed investment
Percent chanae
Annual
Year
ago
Percent chanae
Percent chanae
Billions
Annual
Year
Billions
Annual
Year
of 1992 $
rate
ago
of 1992 $
rate
ago
4 3 4 3 .5 6 3
2 .9
5 2 3 .8 4 1
7 .2
8 4 2 .7 7 2
7 .6
6 0 0 .1 6 7
4 4 8 5 .9 8 1
3 .3
5 6 1 .1 8 9
7.1
9 1 5 .5 3 6
8.6
6 4 8 .3 6 1
8.0
4 6 0 5 .5 7 0
2 .7
5 8 9 .0 9 4
5 .0
9 6 5 .9 6 5
5 .5
7 1 0 .6 3 6
9 .6
7 .6
1996
4 7 5 2 .3 7 6
3 .2
6 2 6 .1 2 0
6 .3
1 0 5 0 .5 8 3
8.8
7 7 6 .5 8 7
9 .3
1997
4 9 1 3 .5 3 0
3 .4
6 6 8 .6 0 2
6.8
1 1 3 7 .9 5 1
8 .3
8 5 9 .3 6 4
1 0 .7
1
2
3
4
4 5 5 5 .2 7 0
1.9
2.6
5 7 5 .1 8 5
- 1.0
4 .5
9 5 7 .1 13
8.2
7 .8
6 9 8 .4 0 2
16.1
1 1 .5
4 5 9 3 .6 2 8
3 .4
2 .7
5 8 3 .5 2 0
5 .9
5 .0
9 5 7 .8 2 6
0 .3
4 .9
7 1 0 .1 6 7
6 .9
10 .8
4 6 2 3 .4 1 9
2.6
2.8
5 9 5 .3 2 3
8 .3
6.0
9 6 5 .8 3 2
3 .4
4 .7
71 1 .7 1 3
0 .9
9 .0
4 6 4 9 .9 6 2
2 .3
2.6
6 0 2 .3 5 7
4 .8
4 .5
9 8 3 .0 9 1
7 .3
4 .8
7 2 2 .2 7 3
6.1
7 .3
4 6 9 2 .0 7 6
3 .7
3 .0
6 1 0 .9 7 0
5 .8
6.2
101 1 .3 6 5
1 2 .0
5 .7
7 4 4 .7 7 7
13.1
6.6
4 7 4 6 .5 5 3
4 .7
3 .3
6 2 9 .5 0 5
1 2 .7
7 .9
1 0 4 3 .5 1 7
1 3 .3
8 .9
7 6 4 .4 0 3
1 1 .0
7 .6
4 7 6 8 .2 8 5
1.8
3.1
6 2 6 .4 8 6
-1 .9
5 .2
1 0 6 7 .0 6 7
9 .3
1 0 .5
7 9 0 .1 3 8
1 4 .2
1 1.0
4 8 0 2 .5 5 0
2 .9
3 .3
6 3 7 .5 0 7
7 .2
5 .8
1 0 8 0 .3 8 5
5.1
9 .9
8 0 7 .0 3 6
8 .8
1 1 .7
1995
1996
1997
1998
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
4 8 5 3 .3 9 8
4 .3
3 .4
6 5 6 .2 7 7
1 2 .3
7 .4
1 0 9 6 .0 4 6
5 .9
8 .4
8 2 0 .8 6 0
7 .0
10 .2
4 8 7 2 .6 8 3
1 .6
2 .7
6 5 3 .7 6 6
-1 .5
3 .9
1 1 2 6 .9 9 1
1 1.8
8.0
8 4 8 .1 8 4
1 4 .0
1 1.0
4 9 4 6 .9 9 3
6.2
3 .7
6 7 9 .6 1 9
1 6 .8
8 .5
1 1 5 9 .2 9 2
12 .0
8.6
8 8 2 .1 8 1
1 7 .0
1 1.6
4 9 8 1 .0 0 5
2 .8
3 .7
6 8 4 .7 5 3
3.1
7 .4
1 1 6 9 .4 9 2
3 .6
8 .2
8 8 6 .2 3 1
1.8
9 .8
5 0 5 5 .0 6 2
6.1
4 .2
7 1 0 .2 5 9
1 5 .8
8.2
1 2 2 4 .9 4 3
2 0 .4
1 1.8
9 3 1 .8 6 4
2 2 .2
1 3 .5
5 1 2 6 .4 6 1
5 .8
5 .2
7 2 7 .3 9 7
10.0
1 1 .3
1 2 5 9 .9 7 0
1 1.9
1 1.8
9 5 7 .4 5 4
1 1 .4
1 2 .9
22
Rnal Sales
Real GDP
Nominal GDP
National EconomicTrends
Emplclyment Cost Index
GDP Chtain Price Index
Index
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1995
1996
1997
1998
rate
ago
Index
Index
Percent change
Year
Annual
Year
ago
Index
rate
ago
2.6
1 1 8 .4
3 .6
1 1 5 .2
2 .9
1 2 7 .0
5 .4
2 .4
1 2 2 .2
3 .2
1 1 8 .5
2 .9
1 3 2 .1
4 .0
1 0 7 .5 1 3
2 .3
1 2 5 .7
2.8
1 2 1 .9
2 .9
1 3 5 .0
2 .2
1 0 9 .5 4 1
1.9
1 2 9 .2
2.8
1 2 6 .0
3 .3
1 3 7 .4
1.8
1 1 1 .5 6 9
1.9
1 3 3 .2
3.1
1 3 0 .4
3 .5
1 4 0 .2
2.0
1 0 6 .7 3 5
2 .5
2 .5
1 2 4 .4
2 .9
3 .0
1 2 0 .6
2 .7
3 .0
1 3 3 .9
1.2
2 .7
2
1 0 7 .2 5 9
2 .0
2 .4
1 2 5 .3
2 .9
2 .9
1 2 1 .5
3 .0
2 .9
1 3 4 .6
2.1
2 .4
3
4
1 0 7 .7 5 8
1.9
2 .2
1 2 6 .1
2.6
2 .7
1 2 2 .4
3 .0
2 .9
1 3 5 .3
2.1
1 .9
1 0 8 .2 9 9
2.0
2.1
1 2 6 .9
2 .6
2.8
1 2 3 .2
2 .6
2 .8
1 3 6 .0
2.1
1 .9
1
1 0 8 .9 0 0
2 .2
2 .0
1 2 7 .7
2 .5
2 .7
1 2 4 .4
4 .0
3 .2
1 3 6 .1
0 .3
1.6
2
1 0 9 .2 7 7
1 .4
1.9
1 2 8 .8
3 .5
2.8
1 2 5 .6
3 .9
3 .4
1 3 7 .0
2 .7
1.8
3
4
1 0 9 .7 7 2
1.8
1 .9
1 2 9 .7
2.8
2 .9
1 2 6 .5
2 .9
3 .3
1 3 7 .8
2 .4
1.8
1 1 0 .2 1 4
1.6
1.8
1 3 0 .6
2.8
2 .9
1 2 7 .4
2 .9
3 .4
1 3 8 .6
2 .3
1.9
1
1 1 0 .9 6 6
2 .8
1.9
1 3 1 .4
2 .5
2 .9
1 2 8 .5
3 .5
3 .3
1 3 8 .8
0 .6
2 .0
2
1 1 1 .4 4 7
1.7
2 .0
1 3 2 .6
3 .7
3 .0
1 2 9 .7
3 .8
3 .3
1 3 9 .7
2 .6
2 .0
3
4
1 1 1 .7 7 2
1.2
1.8
1 3 3 .7
3 .4
3.1
1 3 1 .0
4.1
3 .6
1 4 0 .4
2 .0
1.9
1 1 2 .0 9 1
1.1
1 .7
1 35.1
4 .3
3 .4
1 3 2 .5
4 .7
4 .0
1 4 1 .7
3 .8
2 .2
1
1 1 2 .3 3 2
0 .9
1.2
1 3 6 .0
2 .7
3 .5
1 3 3 .6
3 .4
4 .0
1 4 2 .1
1.1
2 .4
2
1 1 2 .5 6 6
0.8
1.0
1 3 7 .2
3 .6
3 .5
1 3 4 .9
3 .9
4 .0
1 4 3 .2
3.1
2 .5
1995
1996
1997
1998
ago
Annual
rate
1
1993
1994
1997
Year
1 0 2 .6 4 3
imports
Nonfarm Output per Hour
Percent change
Percent change
1996
Annual
rate
ECI: Benefits
Percent change
1 0 5 .0 8 8
Exports
1995
ECI: Wages
Percent change
Percent change
Year
Annual
Billions
Annual
Year
Billions
Annual
Year
of 1992 $
rate
ago
of 1992 $
rate
ago
Nonfarm Compensation/Hr
Percent change
Index
Annual
Year
rate
ago
Percent chanqe
Index
Annual
Year
rate
ago
6 5 8 .1 8 3
2 .9
7 2 8 .4 0 9
8 .9
100.1
0.1
1 0 2 .3
7 1 2 .3 9 9
8.2
8 1 7 .0 2 6
12 .2
1 0 0 .5
0 .4
1 0 4 .1
1.8
7 9 2 .5 7 5
1 1 .3
8 8 9 .0 4 0
8.8
1 0 0 .7
0 .2
1 0 6 .7
2 .5
8 6 0 .0 0 8
8 .5
9 7 1 .2 4 8
9 .2
1 0 2 .6
1 .9
1 1 0 .8
3 .8
9 6 9 .9 8 8
12.8
1 1 0 6 .1 2 4
1 3 .9
1 0 4 .3
1 .7
1 1 5 .0
3 .8
2 .3
1
7 6 3 .8 8 5
9 .2
1 3 .0
8 7 3 .4 3 3
9 .8
1 2 .9
1 0 0 .3
- 1.6
-0 .3
1 0 5 .5
2 .3
1.6
2
7 7 4 .0 0 0
5 .4
9 .9
8 8 8 .7 0 5
7 .2
10 .0
1 0 0 .5
0.8
- 0 .2
1 0 6 .3
3.1
2 .3
3
4
8 0 6 .2 9 1
1 7 .8
1 1 .7
8 9 3 .1 2 7
2.0
7 .2
1 0 0 .8
1.2
0 .4
1 0 7 .1
3 .0
2 .8
8 2 6 .1 19
10.2
1 0 .5
9 0 0 .9 0 0
3 .5
5 .6
1 0 1 .4
2 .4
0 .7
1 08.1
3 .8
3.1
1
8 3 3 .6 0 7
3 .7
9.1
9 2 9 .0 6 4
13.1
6 .4
102.1
2 .8
1.8
1 09.1
3 .8
3 .4
2
8 4 5 .4 7 4
5 .8
9 .2
9 5 8 .9 3 9
1 3 .5
7 .9
1 0 2 .8
2 .8
2 .3
1 1 0 .5
5 .2
4 .0
3
4
8 4 9 .8 9 3
2.1
5 .4
9 9 0 .0 1 2
1 3 .6
10 .8
1 0 2 .6
- 0 .8
1 .8
1 1 1 .4
3 .3
4 .0
91 1 .0 5 3
3 2 .0
1 0 .3
1 0 0 6 .9 7 1
7 .0
1 1 .8
1 03.1
2 .0
1 .7
1 1 2 .3
3 .3
3 .9
1
9 2 9 .4 1 0
8 .3
1 1.5
1 0 5 0 .9 3 5
1 8 .6
13.1
1 0 3 .4
1.2
1 .3
1 1 3 .5
4 .3
4 .0
2
9 6 3 .5 9 4
1 5 .5
1 4 .0
1 0 9 5 .2 0 6
1 7 .9
1 4 .2
1 0 4 .0
2 .3
1.2
1 1 4 .4
3 .2
3 .5
3
4
9 8 8 .1 0 9
10.6
1 6 .3
1 1 3 0 .5 2 1
1 3 .5
1 4 .2
1 0 4 .9
3 .5
2 .2
1 1 5 .5
3 .9
3 .7
9 9 8 .8 3 8
4 .4
9 .6
1 1 4 7 .8 4 0
6 .3
1 4 .0
1 0 5 .3
1 .5
2.1
1 1 7 .0
5 .3
4 .2
1 0 5 .6
1.1
2.1
1 1 8 .2
4 .2
4.1
1
9 9 1 .8 7 5
- 2.8
6 .7
1 1 9 0 .4 0 6
1 5 .7
1 3 .3
2
9 7 1 .3 0 5
- 8.0
0.8
1 2 2 4 .2 2 2
1 1 .9
1 1 .8
23
National EconomicTrends
Household Survey Employment
Thousands
1996
1997
1998
Change
Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Percent chanae
Year
Annual
ago
rate
Thousands Change
Nonfarm Aggregate Hours
Percent chanae
Year
Annual
ago
rate
Index
Percent chanae
Monthly Annual
Year
rate
rate
ago
1993
120259
1771
1.5
110 69 2
2101
1.9
124.6
1994
1 2 3 06 9
2810
2.3
114131
3440
3.1
129.9
4.2
1995
124903
1834
1.5
117187
3055
2.7
1 3 3 .4
2 .7
2.1
2.6
136.6
2 .4
1 41.4
3.5
1996
126708
1805
1.4
1 1 9590
2403
1997
129557
2849
2.2
122677
3086
1
125656
449
1.4
0.6
118459
5 24
2
12 6 32 3
667
2.1
1.3
119273
8 14
1.8
2.8
3
12 7 06 7
744
2 .4
701
127787
7 20
2.3
1.8
2.1
119974
4
120655
681
2.9
1.7
1 34.5
0.2
1.0
1.2
136.2
1.3
5.3
2 .5
2 .4
2.0
2.2
137.3
2 .7
2.3
1 3 8 .4
0.8
0.8
3.1
2.3
3.3
3.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
1.0
3.9
3.9
3.4
3 .4
2.3
3.2
4.1
3 .4
1
128697
9 10
2.9
2.4
121461
8 05
2.7
2.5
139.7
2
129387
690
2.4
122317
856
2.9
2.6
140.9
3
129723
336
678
2.2
2.5
141.7
130421
698
2.1
2.1
122995
4
2.2
1.0
2.2
123934
939
3.1
2.7
143.1
1
131080
659
124795
862
2.8
2.7
144.3
3.2
268
1.5
125508
713
2.3
2.6
1 44.6
0.8
0.2
3.2
131348
2.0
0.8
1.9
2
0.8
2.6
1996 Juri
126591
2 70
2.6
1.7
119549
249
2.5
2.1
137.1
0.7
8.2
2.9
136.6
-0 .4
-4 .3
2.6
137.3
0.5
6.3
2.7
137.9
0 .4
5 .4
2.8
Jul
1 2 6 86 7
2 76
119741
192
1.9
126995
128
2.6
1.2
1.7
Aug
1.8
120024
283
2.9
Sep
1 2 7 33 8
3 43
3.3
1.9
120157
133
1.3
2.2
2.2
2.1
Oct
Nov
Dec
127715
377
3.6
1.9
120382
225
2.3
2.2
137.9
0.0
0.0
2.9
127746
31
0.3
2.0
120683
301
3.0
2.3
138.3
0.3
3 .5
3.0
1 2 7 89 9
153
1.4
2.2
120901
218
2.2
2.4
139.0
0.5
6.2
3.6
1997 Jan
128541
642
6.2
245
2.5
2.6
138.8
- 0.1
-1 .7
4.7
12 8 5 1 5
-2 6
- 0.2
2.6
2.2
121146
Feb
121457
31 1
3.1
2 .5
139 .8
0.7
9 .0
3.3
Mar
1 2 9 03 5
520
5.0
2 .4
121779
322
3.2
2.5
140.6
0.6
7.1
3.7
3.8
Apr
1 2 9 27 5
240
2.3
2.6
122092
313
3.1
2.6
140 .6
0.0
0.0
May
129494
219
2.1
2.5
122325
233
2 .3
2.5
141 .2
0 .4
5.2
3.7
Jun
1 2 9 39 2
-1 0 2
-0 .9
2.2
122534
209
2.1
2.5
140.9
- 0.2
-2 .5
2.8
2.2
2.2
122811
277
2.7
2.6
141.3
0.3
3 .5
3 .4
122894
83
0.8
2.4
141.7
0.3
3 .5
3.2
1.9
123280
386
3.8
2.6
142.1
0.3
3 .4
3.0
Jul
129661
269
2.5
Aug
1 2 9 74 7
86
Sep
129761
14
0.8
0.1
Oct
Nov
Dec
12 9 9 1 0
149
1.4
1.7
123568
288
2.8
2.6
142.6
0 .4
4 .3
3 .4
130575
665
6.3
2.2
123944
376
3.7
2.7
143.2
0 .4
5 .2
3.5
1 3 0 77 7
202
1.9
2.3
124289
345
3 .4
2.8
143.6
0.3
3 .4
3.3
1998 Jan
131083
3 06
2.8
351
3 .4
2.9
144.6
0.7
8 .7
4.2
131163
80
0.7
2.0
2.1
124640
Feb
124832
192
1.9
144.4
- 0.1
- 1.6
3 .3
M ar
130994
-1 6 9
-1 .5
1.5
124914
82
0.8
2.8
2.6
143.8
-0 .4
-4 .9
2.3
2.6
2.6
2.6
144.0
0.1
0.6
- 0.1
1.7
2 .4
7 .8
2.6
2.8
Apr
131383
389
3.6
1.6
125234
320
3.1
May
131453
70
1.5
125543
309
3.0
Jun
13 1 20 9
-2 4 4
0.6
- 2.2
1.4
125748
205
2.0
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
24
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
144.9
144.8
- 0.8
National Economic!rends
Retail Sales
Unempl.
Rate
1996
1997
1998
1996
Billions
of dollars
Industrial Production
Percent chanae
Monthly/ Annual
Year
quarterly
rate
ago
Index
Percent chanae
Year
Monthly/ Annual
quarterly
ago
rate
Treasury
Yields
3 -m o
1 0 -y r
1993
6.9
2 0 7 2 .4 3 4
6.5
10 3 .5 5 4
3 .6
3 .0 0
5 .8 6
1994
6.1
2 2 2 7 .8 3 8
7.5
109.171
5 .4
4 .2 5
7 .0 8
1995
5.6
2 3 3 1 .6 1 7
4.7
1 1 4 .5 4 3
4.9
5 .49
6 .5 8
1996
5 .4
2 4 5 5 .2 3 4
5.3
118.4 9 9
3 .5
5.01
6 .4 4
1997
5.0
2 5 6 8 .1 9 3
4.6
1 2 4 .4 2 3
5.0
5 .0 6
6 .3 5
1
5.6
602.441
1.7
7.1
5.2
1 16.105
0 .5
2.0
2 .3
4 .9 3
5.91
2
5 .4
6 1 3 .4 3 6
1.8
0.2
1.6
7 .5
5.7
1 18.228
1.8
7 .5
3 .8
5 .0 2
6 .7 2
0.9
4.9
1 19.270
0.9
3 .6
3 .5
5 .1 0
6 .7 8
6.6
5 .5
120.3 9 3
0.9
3 .8
4 .2
4 .9 8
6 .3 4
3
5.3
6 1 4 .7 4 9
4
5.3
6 2 4 .6 0 8
1
5.3
639.631
2 .4
10.0
6.2
1 2 1 .9 4 0
1.3
5.2
5 .0
5 .0 6
6 .5 6
2
4.9
6 3 4 .1 2 7
- 0 .9
- 3 .4
3 .4
123.3 1 2
1.1
4.6
4 .3
5 .0 5
6 .7 0
3
4.9
646.541
1.5
6.0
4.9
5 .0 5
6 .2 4
6 4 7 .8 9 4
8.1
0.8
125.119
4.7
2.0
0.2
5 .2
4
3.7
127.321
1.8
7 .2
5 .8
5 .0 9
5 .9 0
1
4.7
6 6 0 .9 7 5
2.0
8 .3
3.3
127.7 0 2
0.3
1.2
4.7
5 .0 5
5 .5 9
2
4 .4
6 7 3 .8 6 2
1.9
8.0
6.3
128.489
0.6
2 .5
4.2
4 .9 8
5 .6 0
Jul
5.5
2 0 4 .3 7 4
0.1
1.1
5.1
1 18.943
0.0
0 .5
4.1
5 .1 5
6 .8 7
Aug
5.2
2 0 4 .2 5 6
- 0.1
-0 .7
4.3
1 19.253
0.3
3.2
3.3
5 .0 5
6 .6 4
Sep
5.2
206.1 19
0.9
11.5
5.2
1 19.613
0.3
3 .7
3.2
5 .0 9
6 .8 3
6 .5 3
Oct
5.3
208.1 13
1.0
12.2
6.4
1 19.650
3.7
4 .9 9
5 .4
2 0 7 .8 4 4
- 0.1
-1 .5
5.2
1 2 0 .5 8 7
0.0
0.8
0 .4
Nov
9 .8
4.3
5 .0 3
5 .2 0
Dec
5.3
208.651
0 .4
4.8
4.9
1 2 0 .9 4 3
0.3
3 .6
4.7
4.91
6 .3 0
1997 Jan
5.3
21 1.170
1.2
15.5
6.4
1 2 1 .2 8 8
0.3
3 .5
5.2
5 .0 3
6 .5 8
Feb
5.3
2 1 3 .9 4 5
1.3
17.0
6.2
1 2 2 .0 6 4
0.6
8.0
4.6
5.01
6 .4 2
Mar
5.2
2 1 4 .5 1 6
0 .3
3.3
5.9
1 2 2 .4 6 8
0.3
4.0
5.3
5 .1 4
6.6 9
6.8 9
Apr
5.0
21 1.018
- 1.6
-1 7 .9
3.6
1 2 3 .0 7 3
0.5
6.1
4.7
5 .1 6
May
4.8
2 1 0 .5 3 2
- 0.2
-2 .7
2.4
1 2 3 .3 1 6
2 .4
4.3
5.0 5
6.71
Jun
5.0
2 1 2 .5 7 7
1.0
12.3
4.1
1 2 3 .5 4 6
0.2
0.2
2.3
3.9
4 .9 3
6 .4 9
6.22
Jul
4.9
215.031
1.2
14.8
5.2
124.5 2 7
4.7
5 .0 5
4.9
2 1 6 .0 2 2
0 .5
5.7
5.8
1 2 5 .2 4 6
0.8
0.6
10.0
Aug
7 .2
5.0
5 .1 4
6 .3 0
Sep
4.9
2 1 5 .4 8 8
- 0.2
-2 .9
4.5
1 2 5 .5 8 5
0.3
3 .3
5.0
4 .95
6.21
Oct
4.8
215.1 13
- 0.2
- 2.1
3.4
1 2 6 .5 5 0
5.8
4 .97
6 .0 3
4.6
2 1 5 .9 1 4
0 .4
4.6
3.9
1 2 7 .5 2 8
0.8
0.8
9 .6
Nov
9 .7
5.8
5 .1 4
5 .8 7
Dec
4.7
2 1 6 .8 6 7
0 .4
5 .4
3.9
1 2 7 .8 8 4
0.3
3 .4
5.7
5.1 6
5.81
1998 Jan
4.7
2 1 9 .0 0 4
1.0
12.5
3.7
1 2 7 .8 1 3
- 0.1
-0 .7
5 .4
5 .0 4
5 .5 4
Feb
4.6
220.866
0 .9
10.7
3.2
127.3 2 7
-0 .4
-4 .5
4.3
5.09
5 .5 7
Mar
4.7
2 2 1 .1 0 5
0.1
1.3
3.1
127.9 6 6
0.5
6.2
4 .5
5.03
5 .6 5
Apr
4.3
2 2 2 .7 0 7
0 .7
9 .0
5.5
128.5 2 8
0.4
5 .4
4 .4
4.95
5 .6 4
May
4.3
2 2 5 .4 6 4
15.9
7.1
128.8 6 8
0.3
3 .2
4.5
5 .00
5 .6 5
Jun
4.5
225.691
1.2
0.1
1.2
6.2
128.0 7 2
- 0.6
- 7 .2
3.7
4.98
5 .5 0
4.96
5 .4 6
Jul
25
Nat ional Economic Tren ds
w iß u m e r rn c e inaex
Consumer Price Index
Index
1996
1997
1998
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
r r o a u c e r r n c e iim
less Food and Energy
Percent chanae
Year
Monthly/ Annual
ago
quarterly
rate
Finished Goods
Percent chanae
Year
to date
Index
Monthly/ Annual
quarterly
rate
Percent chanae
Year
Year
ago
to date
Index
Monthly/ Annual
Year
quarterly
ago
rate
1 4 4 .6
3 .0
152.4
3 .3
124.7
1.2
1 4 8 .3
2.6
156.7
2 .8
125 .5
0 .6
1 5 2 .5
2 .8
161.4
3 .0
127.9
1.9
1 5 7 .0
2.9
165.8
2 .7
131.3
2 .6
1 6 0 .6
2 .3
169.7
2 .4
131.8
0 .4
1
155.1
0 .8
3 .2
2 .8
3.2
164.2
0 .7
2.6
2.9
2.6
129.9
0 .9
3.8
2
1 56.5
0.9
3 .7
2.9
3.5
165.2
0 .6
2.5
2.7
2.5
131.1
0.9
3.7
2 .5
3
1 57 .5
0 .6
2 .4
2.9
3.1
166.3
0 .7
2.7
2.7
2.6
131.5
0 .3
1.2
2 .8
4
1 58 .8
0 .8
3 .3
3.2
3.2
167.4
0.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
132.6
0 .8
3.3
3 .0
2.1
2.2
1
1 59.6
0 .5
2 .2
2.9
2.2
168.3
0.5
2.2
2 .5
2.2
132.7
0.1
0 .2
2
1 60.2
0 .3
1.3
2.3
1.8
169.4
0.7
2.7
2 .5
2.4
131.7
- 0 .8
-3 .0
0 .4
3
4
1 60.9
0 .5
1.9
2 .2
1.8
170.2
0 .4
1.7
2.3
2.2
1 3 1 .4
-0 .2
-0 .8
- 0 .1
161 .8
0 .5
2.1
1.9
1.9
171.1
0 .5
2.1
2.2
2.2
131.6
0 .2
0.6
-0 .8
1
1 6 2 .0
0.1
0 .5
1.5
0 .5
172.1
0.6
2 .4
2.3
2 .4
1 30.4
-0 .9
-3 .7
-1 .7
2
1 6 2 .8
0 .5
2 .0
1.6
1.2
173.2
0 .7
2.7
2.2
2.5
1 30.4
0 .0
0.1
-1 .0
1996 Jun
1 5 6 .8
0.1
1.5
2.8
3.5
165.6
0.2
2.9
2.7
2.7
1 31.4
0 .2
2 .8
2 .7
2 .6
Jul
1 5 7 .2
0 .3
3.1
2.9
3.5
166.0
0.2
2.9
2.7
2.7
131.3
- 0 .1
-0 .9
Aug
1 5 7 .4
0.1
1.5
2.9
3.2
166.3
0.2
2.2
2.7
2.7
131.5
0 .2
1.8
2.9
Sep
1 57.8
0 .3
3.1
3.0
3.2
166.7
0.2
2.9
2.6
2.7
131.8
0 .2
2.8
2.9
Oct
1 5 8 .3
0 .3
3.9
3.0
3.3
167.1
0.2
2.9
2.6
2.7
132.3
0 .4
4 .6
3.1
Nov
1 5 8 .8
0 .3
3.9
3.2
3.3
167.4
0.2
2.2
2.6
2.7
132.5
0 .2
1.8
3 .0
Dee
1 5 9 .2
0 .3
3.1
3.3
3.3
167.7
0.2
2.2
2.6
2 .6
1 33.0
0 .4
4.6
2.9
1997 Jan
1 5 9 .4
0.1
1.5
3.0
1.5
168.0
0.2
2.2
2 .5
2 .2
133.0
0 .0
0.0
2.5
Feb
1 59 .7
0 .2
2 .3
3.0
1.9
168.3
0.2
2.2
2 .5
2 .2
132.6
-0 .3
-3 .5
2.2
Mar
1 59 .8
0.1
0 .8
2.7
1.5
168.6
0.2
2.2
2 .4
2 .2
1 32 .4
-0 .2
-1 .8
1.5
Apr
1 6 0 .0
0.1
1.5
2 .4
1.5
169.2
0.4
4 .4
2.6
2 .7
131.9
-0 .4
-4 .4
0 .8
May
Jun
160.1
0.1
0 .8
2.2
1.4
169 .4
0.1
1.4
2.5
2.5
131.7
-0 .2
-1 .8
0 .5
1 6 0 .4
0 .2
2 .3
2 .3
1.5
169.7
0.2
2.1
2.5
2 .4
1 31 .4
-0 .2
-2 .7
0 .0
Jul
1 60.6
0.1
1.5
2 .2
1.5
170.0
0 .2
2.1
2 .4
2 .4
131.1
-0 .2
-2 .7
-0 .2
Aug
1 60.9
0 .2
2 .3
2 .2
1.6
170.1
0.1
0 .7
2.3
2.2
131.3
0 .2
1.8
-0 .2
Sep
1 6 1 .3
0 .2
3 .0
2 .2
1.8
1 7 0 .4
0 .2
2.1
2.2
2.2
131.8
0 .4
4.7
0 .0
-0 .4
Oct
1 6 1 .6
0 .2
2 .3
2.1
1.8
1 7 0 .8
0 .2
2.9
2.2
2.2
131.8
0 .0
0.0
Nov
1 6 1 .8
0.1
1.5
1.9
1.8
1 7 1 .0
0.1
1.4
2.2
2.1
131.6
-0 .2
-1 .8
- 0 .7
Dee
1 61.9
0.1
0 .7
1.7
1.7
1 7 1 .4
0 .2
2 .8
2.2
2.2
1 31.4
-0 .2
-1 .8
-1 .2
1998 Jan
161.9
0 .0
0 .0
1.6
0.0
1 7 1 .7
0.2
2.1
2 .2
2.1
130.6
-0 .6
- 7 .1
-1 .8
Feb
1 6 2 .0
0.1
0 .7
1.4
0 .4
1 7 2 .2
0.3
3 .6
2 .3
2 .8
130.5
- 0 .1
- 0 .9
-1 .6
Mar
1 6 2 .0
0 .0
0.0
1.4
0.2
1 7 2 .4
0.1
1.4
2 .3
2 .4
130.0
-0 .4
-4 .5
-1 .8
Apr
1 6 2 .4
0 .2
3.0
1.5
0.9
1 72.9
0.3
3 .5
2.2
2.6
130.3
0 .2
2 .8
-1 .2
May
Jun
1 6 2.9
0 .3
3.8
1.7
1.5
1 7 3 .3
0.2
2.8
2.3
2.7
130.5
0 .2
1.9
-0 .9
1 63 .0
0.1
0.7
1.6
1.4
1 7 3 .5
0.1
1.4
2.2
2.5
130 .4
- 0 .1
- 0 .9
-0 .8
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
26
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
National EconomicTrends
Notes
Pages 4, 5: Final sales is gross domestic product (GDP) minus change
in business inventories. Advance, preliminary, and final GDP
growth rates are released during the first, second, and third months of
the following quarter. Changes result from incorporation of more com
plete information. The Purchasing Managers’ Index is a weighted
average of diffusion indexes for new orders, production, supplier deliv
eries, inventories, and employment. The National Association of Pur
chasing Management (NAPM) surveys over 300 firms in 20 manufac
turing industries, weighting responses by industry share of GDP. Ag
gregate and average weekly hours are paid hours of production and
nonsupervisory employees. The inventory-sales ratio uses nominal
(current-dollar) inventory and sales data.
Page 6: The contribution of a component X, to the overall GDP
growth rate in quarter t is 100 x [(1 + (Xt - X,.i)/GDP,.i)4- 1], The sign
is changed for imports. This calculation forces components to add up
to the GDP growth rate before compounding and does not exactly
match Survey o f Current Business, Table 8.2. The residual line is
calculated using the finest level of detail in the table.
Page 7: Ten-year Treasury yields are adjusted to constant maturity.
Three-month yields are secondary market averages, but all rates used in
the yield curves are adjusted to constant maturity. Standard and
Poor’s 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends shows the total return:
capital gains plus dividends.
Pages 8,9: Oil prices are monthly averages of daily spot prices for
West Texas intermediate crude (Wall Street Journal). Consumer price
index is for all urban consumers. The consumption chain price index
is the index associated with the personal consumption expenditures
component of GDP. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) covers pri
vate nonfarm employers. ECI compensation refers to a fixed sample
of jobs, while compensation per hour covers all workers in the non
farm business sector in a given quarter. In both cases, compensation is
wages and salaries plus benefits.
Pages 10,11: Nonfarm payroll employment is counted in a survey of
about 390,000 establishments (Current Employment Survey). It ex
cludes self-employed individuals and workers in private households,
but double-counts individuals with more than one job. The household
survey (Current Population Survey) of about 50,000 households pro
vides estimates of civilian employment, unemployment rate, labor force
participation rate, and employment-population ratio. Population is
civilian, noninstitutional, 16 years and over. New population controls
introduced in January 1997 affect levels and growth rates of household
survey employment, labor force and population. The unemployment
rate and other ratios are minimally affected. 90 percent confidence
intervals for the unemployment rate (± 0.2 percentage points) and
change in household survey employment (± 376,000) measure uncer
tainty due to sample size. The household survey was changed in Janu
ary 1994, so care should be exercised in making short-term compari
sons around this date, particularly with the duration data shown on
page 10. Other changes in the survey are detailed in Bureau of Labor
Statistics, Employment and Earnings, Appendix A.
Pages 13: The Michigan consumer sentiment index shows changes
in a summary measure of consumers’ answers to five questions about
their current and expected financial situation, expectations about future
economic conditions, and attitudes about making large purchases. The
survey is based on a representative sample of U.S. households.
Pages 14, 15: Overall gross saving includes government saving, which
is the sum of the government surplus and capital consumption (see
notes for pages 16 and 17). Net foreign investment (NFI) is U.S.
investment abroad minus foreign investment in the U.S. Aside from a
statistical discrepancy, NFI also equals the difference between gross
domestic investment and saving.
and Product Accounts (NIPA). The unified federal budget deficit
differs from NIPA basis in four main ways: (1) NIPA excludes trans
actions involving existing assets; (2) NIPA outlays exclude government
investment and include consumption of government capital, while
unified budget outlays do the reverse; (3) NIPA accounts exclude
Puerto Rico and U.S. territories; and (4) various timing issues are
handled differently. Outlays and receipts are from the NIPAs, except
as noted. Since 1977, the federal fiscal year starts on October 1.
Excluded agency debt was 0.6 percent of federal debt at the end of
fiscal 1997. Federal debt held by the public includes holdings of the
Federal Reserve System and excludes holdings of the social security
and other federal trust funds. Federal grants in aid to state and local
governments appear in both state and local receipts and federal outlays.
Pages 18, 19: The trade balance (shown on a balance of payments
basis) is the difference between exports and imports of goods (mer
chandise) and services. It is nearly identical in concept to the net ex
ports component of GDP, but differs slightly in accounting details.
The investment income balance equals income received from U.S.owned assets in other countries minus income paid on foreign-owned
assets in the U.S. The investment income balance is nearly identical in
concept to the difference between gross national product and gross
domestic product, but differs in accounting details. The current ac
count balance is the trade balance plus the balance on investment
income plus net unilateral transfers to the U.S. from other countries.
Pages 20, 21: Output per hour (Y/H), unit labor cost (C/Y), and
compensation per hour (C/H) are indexes which approximately obey
the following relationship: %(Y/H) + %(C/Y) = %(C/H) with %()
meaning percent changes. Unit labor cost is shown on page 9. Real
compensation per hour uses the CPI to adjust for the effects of infla
tion. Multifactor productivity estimates changes in output that do not
correspond to changes in quantities of labor, capital, or intermediate
inputs. Inventory valuation adjustments (IVA) remove the effect of
changes in the value of existing inventories from corporate profits and
proprietors’ income. (This change in value does not correspond to
current production and therefore is not part of GDP). Capital con
sumption adjustments (CCAdj) increase profits and proprietors’
income by the difference between estimates of economic depreciation
and depreciation allowed by the tax code. Components of national
income not shown are rental income of persons and net interest.
Sources
Bureau o f Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Dept, o f Commerce
National income and product accounts, international trade and in
vestment data (except by country), auto and light truck sales
Census Bureau, U.S. Dept, o f Commerce
Inventory-sales ratios, retail sales, capital goods orders, housing
starts, exports and imports by country
Bureau o f Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Dept, o f Labor
All employment-related data, employment cost index, consumer and
producer price indexes, unit labor cost, output per hour, compensa
tion per hour, total factor productivity
United States Department o f Treasury
Unified budget receipts, outlays, deficit, debt
Federal Reserve Board
Index of industrial production, treasury yields, exchange rates, capac
ity utilization, household debt
The Survey Research Center, The University o f Michigan
Consumer sentiment index
The Conference Board
Help-wanted advertising index
Organization fo r Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
GDP for major trading partners (not available on FRED)
Pages 16, 17: Government consumption and investment is current
expenditures on goods and services, including capital consumption
(depreciation) and gross investment, as reported in the National Income
27
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