Full text of National Economic Trends : August 1994

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AUGUST 1994

N ational
Economic
Trends
Will a Fall in the Dollar
Boost U.S. Production?
One of the most widely accepted propositions in­
fluencing economic policy is that a country can boost
its output, especially internationally traded goods, by
lowering the foreign exchange value of its currency.
This view gained prominence recently because of
the perception that the Clinton Administration desires
to lower the value of the dollar as part of its efforts
to reduce the trade deficit with Japan. Whether this
perception is correct or not, resulting concerns about
the relative rate of return on U.S. investment have con­
tributed to a rise in interest rates and a fall in the dollar’s
value. A lower dollar is not likely to boost U.S. output,
however. Indeed, there is a positive relationship between
the dollar’s value and output largely because changes
in incentives that, for example, lower U.S. investment,
productivity and output also reallocate international
investment and contribute to a lower value of the dollar.
Conversely, efforts to push the dollar down are likely to
lower U.S. output because they would require actions
— such as boosting inflation, raising tax rates or adopting

protectionist trade policies—that unintentionally lower
domestic investment and productivity. The evidence
in the table below supports this positive relationship.
The table shows four periods when the value of the
dollar showed different trends, along with the associated
growth rates of various components of U.S. output,
including a key traded-goods sector, the capital goods
industry. The value of the dollar is measured by the
Federal Reserve Board’s trade-weighted, nominal
exchange rate index. During the 1980-85 period, a
10.4 percent average annual rate that accumulated to
a 63.9 percent rise in the value of the dollar led some
analysts to conclude that the country was losing its
industrial base to foreign competition. As the table
shows, however, manufacturing and real gross domestic
product (GDP) growth, led by the capital goods industry,
accelerated from their 1973-80 pace as the dollar rose.
In 1985 to 1991, the value of the dollar almost com­
pletely retraced its 1980-85 rise. Many analysts urged
this decline, expecting it to boost U.S. output, but the
three output measures slowed, led again by the capital
goods industry. In the latest period, the dollar rose and
output growth improved markedly.
— John A. Tatom

CHANGES IN THE DO LLAR’S VALUE AND U.S. OUTPUT M EASURES
(compound annual rates)
Period
1973-80
1980-85
1985-91
1991-93

Value of the dollar

Capital goods1

Manufacturing2

Real GDP

-1.8%
10.4
-7.5
1.9

2.7%
5.7
3.1
6.7

1.9%
3.1
2.1
3.8

2.1%
2.5
2.2
2.7

1 Industrial production components: industrial machinery and equipment, electrical machinery and transportation equipment
Manufacturing component of industrial production

Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System.
National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research and Public Information Division. Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing
Research and Public Information, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or by calling 314-444-8809.
Information in this publication is also included in the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board. You can access FRED with a personal
computer
and a modem at 314-621-1824.



C onsum er P rice Index - All Urban C onsum ers
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1988

1989

1990

1991

Percent

1992

1993

1994

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Consumer Price Index
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
11-92 12-92
12-92

2.6

1-93

2.6

2.6

2-93

3.1

3.4

Initial Month
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

1982-84=100

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

142.4
142.7
4.3

143.2

3-93

3.0

3.1

3.4

2.5

4-93

3.2

3.4

3.7

3.4

4.3

5-93

3.1

3.2

3.4

3.1

3.4

2.5

143.5
144.0
144.3

6-93

2.8

2.8

2.9

2.5

2.5

1.7

0.8

7-93

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.4

2.3

1.7

1.3

1.7

144.4

8-93

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.5

2.5

2.1

2.0

2.5

3.4

9-93

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.3

2.2

1.8

1.7

2.0

2.1

0.8

10-93

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.2

2.2

2.5

2.8

2.5

4.2

11-93

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.7

2.9

2.8

3.8

3.3

12-93

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.8

2.7

3.3

2.9

2.5

1-94

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.1

2.1

2.3

2.4

2.2

2.5

1.9

1.2

0.0

2-94

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.7

2.3

1.9

1.7

3-94

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.7

2.6

2.9

2.7

2.5

2.5

3.7

4.2

4-94

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.7

2.5

2.3

2.3

3.0

2.9

144.6
145.0
145.1
145.6
146.0
146.3
146.3
3.3

146.7
147.2
1.6

147.4

5-94

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.7

2.5

2.3

2.3

2.9

2.8

2.1

2.5

6-94

2.6

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.8

2.6

2.5

2.5

3.0

2.9

2.5

2.9

3.3

11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94




147.7
148.1

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 13, 1994

2

Consumer Price Index - Food
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
11-92 12-92

Initial Month
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

1982-84=100

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94
139.2

12-92

2.6

1-93

1.3

0.0

2-93

2.0

1.7

3.5

3-93

2.2

2.0

3.1

139.2
139.6
139.9

2.6

140.2

4-93

2.3

2.2

2.9

2.6

2.6

5-93

3.2

3.3

4.2

4.4

5.3

8.0

6-93

2.2

2.2

2.6

2.4

2.3

2.2

-3.3

7-93

2.0

1.9

2.2

1.9

1.7

1.4

-1.7

0.0

8-93

2.2

2.2

2.5

2.3

2.2

2.2

0.3

2.2

4.3

9-93

2.3

2.3

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.4

1.1

2.6

3.9

3.5

10-93

2.7

2.7

3.0

2.9

3.0

3.0

2.1

3.5

4.6

4.8

6.1

11-93

2.7

2.7

2.9

2.9

2.9

3.0

2.1

3.3

4.1

4.0

4.3

2.6

12-93

2.9

2.9

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.3

2.7

3.7

4.5

4.5

4.9

4.3

6.1

1-94

2.6

2.6

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.1

2.9

3.4

3.3

3.2

2.3

2.1

-1.7

2-94

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.2

2.2

2.1

1.5

2.1

2.4

2.1

1.9

0.8

0.3

-2.5

-3.3

3-94

2.2

2.1

2.3

2.2

2.1

2.1

1.5

2.1

2.4

2.1 1 1.8

1.0

0.6

-1.1

-0.8

1.7

4-94

2.1

2.0

2.2

2.1

2.0

2.0

1.5

2.0

2.2

1.9

1.7

1.0

0.7

-0.6

-0.3

1.3

0.8

2.2

2.4

2.2

2.0

1.4

1.3

0.3

0.8

2.3

2.5

1.7

1.6

0.8

1.3

2.5

2.8

3.8

3.4

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

5-94
6-94

2.2
2.3

2.2

2.3

2.2

2.2

2.2

141.1

1.7

140.7
140.7
141.2

2.2

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.3

1.8

2.3

2.5

2.3

11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

141.6

2.2

142.3
142.6
143.3
143.1
142.7
142.9
143.0
143.5

4.3

143.9

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 13, 1994

Consumer Price Index - Energy
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
11-92 12-92
12-92

1.2

1-93

-0.6

-2.3

2-93

-1.5

-2.8

Initial Month
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

1982-84=100

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94
104.4
104.2

-3.4

103.9

3-93

1.2

1.2

2.9

9.6

4-93

1.2

1.2

2.3

5.3

1.2

104.7

5-93

-0.2

-0.5

0.0

1.2

-2.8

-6.7

6-93

-1.0

-1.3

-1.1

-0.6

-3.8

-6.1

104.8
104.2
103.7

-5.6

7-93

-0.9

-1.1

-1.0

-0.5

-2.8

-4.1

-2.8

0.0

8-93

-1.7

-2.0

-2.0

-1.7

-3.9

-5.1

-4.5

-4.0

-7.8

103.7
103.0

9-93

-2.0

-2.3

-2.3

-2.1

-4.0

-5.0

-4.5

-4.2

-6.2

-4.6

10-93

0.2

0.1

0.4

0.9

-0.3

-0.6

0.7

2.3

3.1

9.1

24.6

11-93

-0.7

-0.8

-0.7

-0.4

-1.6

-2.0

-1.1

-0.2

-0.3

2.4

6.0

12-93

-1.2

-1.4

-1.4

-1.2

-2.3

-2.7

-2.1

-1.5

-1.8

-0.3

1.2

-8.8

-7.8

1-94

-1.8

-2.0

-2.0

-1.9

-3.0

-3.4

-3.0

-2.6

-3.1

-2.1

-1.5

-8.9

-8.4

-8.9

2-94

-0.5

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-1.0

-1.3

-0.6

0.0

0.0

1.4

2.6

-2.3

0.4

4.8

20.5

3-94

-0.1

-0.2

-0.1

0.2

-0.6

-0.7

-0.1

0.5

0.6

1.8

2.9

-0.9

1.5

4.7

12.3

4-94

-0.4

-0.5

-0.4

-0.2

-0.9

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.0

1.0

1.8

-1.5

0.2

2.4

6.4

0.0

5-94

-1.0

-1.2

-1.1

-0.9

-1.6

-1.9

-1.4

-1.1

-1.2

-0.4

0.1

-2.9

-1.7

-0.5

1.8

-3.8

-7.8 -11.0

6-94

-0.9

-1.0

-1.0

-0.8

-1.5

-1.6

-1.2

-0.9

-0.9

-0.2

0.3

-2.4

-1.3

-0.2

1.7

-2.6

-4.9

-5.1

1.2

11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94




102.6
104.5
-9.9

103.6
102.9
102.1
103.7
104.1

4.7

103.7

-4.5

102.7
102.8

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 13, 1994

P roducer P rice Index - F in ish ed Goods
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1988

1989

1990

1991

Percent

1992

1993

1994

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Producer Price Index - Finished Goods
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
11-92 12-92

Initial Month
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

12-92

0.0

1-93

2.0

3.9

2-93

2.9

4.4

4.9

3-93

2.9

3.9

3.9

2.9

4-93

3.5

4.4

4.6

4.4

5.9

5-93

2.9

3.5

3.4

2.9

2.9

0.0

6-93

1.7

1.9

1.6

0.7

0.0

-2.8

-5.6

7-93

1.5

1.7

1.3

0.6

0.0

-1.9

-2.8

0.0

8-93

0.2

0.2

-0.3

-1.1

-1.9

-3.8

-5.0

-4.7

7-93

8-93

1982 = 100

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94
123.9
124.3
124.8
125.1
125.7
125.7
125.1
125.1

-9.2

124.1

9-93

0.4

0.4

0.0

-0.7

-1.3

-2.7

-3.3

-2.5

-3.8

2.0

10-93

0.3

0.3

-0.1

-0.7

-1.2

-2.4

-2.8

-2.1

-2.8

0.5

-1.0

11-93

0.3

0.4

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

-1.9

-2.2

-1.5

-1.9

0.6

0.0

1.0

12-93

0.2

0.2

-0.1

-0.6

-1.0

-1.8

-2.0

-1.4

-1.7

0.2

-0.3

0.0

-1.0

1-94

0.5

0.5

0.2

-0.2

-0.5

-1.2

-1.3

-0.7

-0.8

1.0

0.7

1.3

1.5

3.9

2-94

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.2

0.0

-0.6

-0.6

0.0

0.0

1.6

1.6

2.2

2.6

4.4

4.9

3-94

0.9

1.0

0.8

0.4

0.2

-0.3

-0.3

0.3

0.4

1.8

1.8

2.3

2.7

3.9

3.9

2.9

4-94

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.3

0.1

-0.3

-0.3

0.2

0.2

1.5

1.4

1.8

1.9

2.7

2.3

1.0

124.3
124.2
124.3
124.2
124.6
125.1
125.4
-1.0

125.3

5-94

0.7

0.7

0.5

0.3

0.1

-0.4

-0.4

0.1

0.1

1.2

1.1

1.4

1.5

1.9

1.5

0.3

-1.0

-1.0

6-94

0.7

0.7

0.5

0.2

0.1

-0.3

-0.4

0.1

0.1

1.1

1.0

1.2

1.2

1.6

1.2

0.2

-0.6

-0.5

0.0

11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94




125.2
125.2

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 12, 1994

4

Civilian E m ploym ent and U n em p loym en t Rate
Seasonally Adjusted
Millions of Persons

126

t-------- 1----1

1988

1989

r* j * *i---- 1----1-------- 1----1----1-------- 1----[— r

1990

1991

1992

1993

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
January 1994 figures reflect revised data collection procedures and are not directly comparable with previous data.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Civilian Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
11-92 12-92

Thousands of
Persons

Initial Month
1-93

2-93

3-93

12-92

1.9

1-93

1.0

0.2

2-93

1.6

1.5

2.7

3-93

1.5

1.4

2.0

1.2

4-93

1.2

1.1

1.4

0.7

0.2

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

118,155
118,178
118,442
118,562
118,585

5-93

2.1

2.1

2.6

2.5

3.2

6.2

6-93

1.8

1.8

2.1

1.9

2.1

3.1

0.1

7-93

1.8

1.8

2.0

1.9

2.1

2.7

1.0

1.9

8-93

1.9

2.0

2.2

2.1

2.3

2.8

1.7

2.6

3.3

9-93

1.6

1.6

1.8

1.6

1.7

2.0

1.0

1.3

1.0

-1.2

10-93

1.8

1.8

2.0

1.9

2.0

2.3

1.5

1.9

1.9

1.3

3.8

11-93

2.0

2.0

2.2

2.1

2.2

2.5

1.9

2.3

2.4

2.2

3.9

4.0

12-93

2.1

2.1

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.6

2.1

2.5

2.6

2.4

3.7

3.7

3.3

1-94

2.9

3.0

3.2

3.3

3.5

3.8

3.5

4.0

4.4

4.6

6.2

6.9

8.5

119,180
119,187
119,370
-

119,692

^

119,568
c<v

119,941
120,332
S5-

13.8

2-94

2.9

3.0

3.2

3.2

3.4

3.7

3.5

3.9

4.2

4.3

5.5

5.9

6.6

8.2

2.9

3-94

2.6

2.6

2.8

2.8

2.9

3.2

2.9

3.2

3.4

3.4

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.6

0.3

-2.1

4-94

2.6

2.6

2.8

2.8

2.9

3.2

2.9

3.2

3.3

3.3

4.0

4.0

4.0

4.2

1.2

0.4

3.0

5-94

2.7

2.8

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.3

3.1

3.4

3.5

3.6

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.5

2.2

2.0

4.2

5.4

6-94

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.8

2.5

2.7

2.8

2.8

3.2

3.1

3.0

3.0

0.9

0.4

1.3

0.5

-4.2

11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94




120,661
121,971
122,258
122,037
122,338
122,872
122,430

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 8, 1994

Payroll E m ploym ent
Seasonally Adjusted

Militons of Persons

Millions of Persons

125

125

115

115

105

105

95

85

75

1988

1989

I ---------- 1---------- 1

1---------- 1----------r

1990

1991

65

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Payroll Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
11-92 12-92

Thousands of
Persons

Initial Month
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

12-92

1.9

1-93

2.1

2.3

109,280

2-93

2.8

3.2

4.1

3-93

1.9

1.9

1.7

4-93

2.2

2.3

2.2

1.3

3.2

5-93

2.2

2.2

2.2

1.6

2.7

2.1

6-93

2.0

2.0

1.9

1.4

2.1

1.5

1.0

7-93

2.1

2.1

2.1

1.7

2.3

1.9

1.9

2.8

8-93

2.0

2.0

1.9

1.6

2.0

1.7

1.6

1.9

0.9

9-93

2.0

2.0

2.0

1.7

2.0

1.8

1.7

2.0

1.6

2.3

10-93

2.0

2.0

2.0

1.7

2.1

1.9

1.8

2.0

1.8

2.2

2.1

11-93

2.1

2.1

2.1

1.8

2.1

2.0

2.0

2.2

2.0

2.4

2.4

2.8

12-93

2.1

2.1

2.1

1.9

2.2

2.1

2.1

2.3

2.1

2.4

2.5

2.7

2.7

1-94

2.0

2.1

2.0

1.8

2.1

2.0

1.9

2.1

2.0

2.2

2.1

2.2

1.9

1.1

2-94

2.1

2.1

2.0

1.9

2.1

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.0

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.0

1.7

2.3

3-94

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.1

2.3

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.5

3.2

4.1

4-94

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.7

2.8

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.6

4.3

4.4

5-94

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.2

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.5

2.7

2.8

2.9

2.9

2.9

3.4

3.7

3.5

2.7

6-94

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.5

3.8

3.7

3.4

4.1

11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

109,490




109,856
-0.6

109,804
110,096
110,285
110,372
110,628
110,714
110,923
111,112
111,366
111,610
111,711
111,919
112,298
112,699
112,951
113,330

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 8, 1994

Service-Producing Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
11-92 12-92 -1-93

Initial Month
2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

Thousands of
Persons

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94
86,076

12-92

2.2

1-93

2.4

2.5

2-93

2.9

3.2

3.9

3-93

2.2

2.2

2.0

0.1

4-93

2.6

2.7

2.7

2.1

4.2

5-93

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.2

3.3

2.4

6-93

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.1

2.8

2.2

2.0

7-93

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.4

3.0

2.6

2.7

3.5

8-93

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.3

2.7

2.3

2.3

2.5

1.5

9-93

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.4

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.2

2.9

10-93

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.3

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.2

2.5

2.1

11-93

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.4

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.4

2.7

2.5

3.0

12-93

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.5

2.8

2.7

3.1

3.1

1-94

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.3

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.4

2.3

2.4

2.0

1.0

2-94

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.5

2.3

1.9

86,255
86,532
86,541
86,835
87,004
87,147
87,396
87,507
87,717
87,867
88,085
88,312
88,383
2.9

88,592

3-94

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.6

2.8

2.7

2.9

2.8

2.7

3.6

4.3

4-94

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.7

4.1

4.0

5-94

2.7

2.7

’2.8

2.7 ~ 2.9

2.8

2.8

2.9

2.8

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.6

3.9

3.7

3.3

6-94

2.8

2.8

2i9

2.8

3.0

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.1

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.8

4.0

3.9

3.9

4.5

11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

88,903
89,193
89,438
89,766

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 8, 1994

Goods-Producing Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
11-92 12-92
12-92

0.6

1-93

1.1

1.6

2-93

2.3

3.1

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

Initial Month
Persons
8-93 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

7-93

Thousands of
1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94
23,204
23,235

4.7

23,324

3-93

0.9

1.0

0.7

-3.1

4-93

0.7

0.7

0.4

-1.6

-0.1

5-93

0.8

0.8

0.6

-0.7

0.5

1.0

6-93

0.2

0.2

-0.1

-1.3

-0.7

-0.9

-2.8

7-93

0.3

0.2

0.0

-0.9

-0.4

-0.5

-1.3

0.4

8-93

0.1

0.0

-0.2

-1.0

-0.6

-0.7

-1.3

-0.5

-1.3

9-93

0.1

0.0

-0.2

-0.9

-0.5

-0.6

-1.0

-0.3

-0.7

-0.1

10-93

0.2

0.2

0.1

-0.5

-0.1

-0.1

-0.4

0.3

0.2

1.0

2.0

11-93

0.4

0.4

0.2

-0.2

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.6

0.6

1.3

2.0

1.9

12-93

0.4

0.4

0.3

-0.1

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.6

0.7

1.2

1.6

1.4

0.9

1-94

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.0 ' 0.3

0.4

0.3

0.8

0.8

1.3

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.6

2-94

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.0

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.7

0.7

1.0

1.3

1.1

0.8

0.7

-0.1

3-94

0.7 ’ 0.7

0.6

0.3

0.6

0.6

0.6

1.0

1.1

1.4

1.6

1.6

1.5

1.7

1.7

3.6

4-94

1.0

1.0

0.9

0.7

1.0

1.1

1.1

1.5

1.6

1.9

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.7

3.1

4.7

5.8

5-94

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.6

0.9

1.0

1.0

1.4

1.5

1.8

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.2

2.4

3.2

3.1

0.4

6-94

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.8

1.0

1.1

1.1

1.5

1.6

1.8

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.3

2.4

3.1

2.9

1.5

2.6

11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94




23,263
23,261
23,281
23,225
23,232
23,207
23,206
23,245
23,281
23,298
23,328
23,327
•

23,395
23,506
23,513
23,564

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 8, 1994

Change in th e E m p loym en t Cost Index and Its C om ponents
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1988

1990

1989

Percent

1993

1992

1991

1994

Total compensation is the sum of benefits and wages and salaries for private industry workers.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Employment Cost Index - Total Compensation.
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

4-89

4.8

1-90

5.2

5.6

2-90

5.2

5.3

5.1

3-90

4.9

5.0

4.7

4.3

4-90

4.7

4.7

4.4

4.0

3.8

1-91

4.7

4.7

4.4

4.2

4.2

4.6

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

June 1989 = 100
2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

102.4
103.8
105.1
106.2
107.2
108.4

2-91

4.7

4.7

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.7

4.9

3-91

4.6

4.6

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.5

4.5

4.1

4-91

4.6

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.3

4.1

109.7
110.8
4.0

111.9

1-92

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.2

3.9

3.8

3.6

2-92

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.0

4.1

4.0

3.7

3.6

3.4

3.2

3-92

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.2

3.2

4-92

4.2

4.2

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.4

3.5

1-93

4.2

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.7

3.9

2-93

4.2

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.8

3-93

4.1

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.4

4-93

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.4

3.4

1-94

4.0

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.1

2.7

2-94

4.0

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.4

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.7

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

112.9
113.8
114.7
115.7
116.8
117.9
118.9
119.9
120.7
121.8

Data are for the last month of quarter.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 26, 1994

8

In d u strial P rod u ction
Seasonally Adjusted

t -----p— i----- 1----- 1— |----- 1----- 1• ■ r

1988

1989

----- 1----- r

1990

1991

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Industrial Production
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
11-92 12-92

1987 = 100

Initial Month
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94
109.0

12-92

8.0

1-93

5.1

2.2

2-93

6.0

5.1

8.0

109.2
109.9
110.0

3-93

4.8

3.7

4.5

1.1

4-93

4.9

4.2

4.8

3.3

5.6

5-93

3.2

2.2

2.2

0.4

0.0

-5.3

6-93

3.3

2.6

2.7

1.4

1.5

-0.5

4.5

110.5
110.0
110.4

7-93

3.6

3.0

3.1

2.2

2.5

1.5

5.0

5.6

8-93

3.5

2.9

3.0

2.2

2.4

1.6

4.1

3.9

2.2

9-93

3.3

2.8

2.9

2.2

2.4

1.7

3.6

3.3

2.2

2.2

10-93

3.6

3.2

3.3

2.7

3.0

2.5

4.2

4.1

3.7

4.4

6.7

11-93

4.2

3.8

4.0

3.5

3.8

3.6

5.2

5.3

5.2

6.3

8.4

10.1

12-93

4.8

4.6

4.8

4.5

4.9

4.8

6.3

6.6

6.8

8.0

10.1

11.8

13.5

110.9
111.1
111.3
111.9
112.8
114.0

1-94

5.0

4.7

4.9

4.7

5.0

5.0

6.3

6.6

6.8

7.7

9.2

10.0

10.0

6.5

2-94

4.9

4.7

4.9

4.6

5.0

4.9

6.1

6.3

6.4

7.1

8.2

8.5

8.0

5.4

4.3

3-94

5.2

5.0

5.2

5.0

5.4

5.3

6.5

6.7

6.8

7.5

8.4

8.8

8.5

6.8

7.0

9.8

4-94

5.0

4.8

5.0

4.8

5.1

5.1

6.1

6.2

6.3

6.8

7.5

7.6

7.2

5.6

5.3

5.9

2.1

5-94

4.9

4.7

4.8

4.6

4.9

4.8

5.7

5.8

5.9

6.3

6.8

6.8

6.3

4.9

4.5

4.6

2.1

2.1

6-94

4.9

4.7

4.9

4.7

4.9

4.9

5.7

5.8

5.8

6.2

6.6

6.6

6.2

5.0

4.7

4.8

3.1

3.7

5.3

11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94




114.6
115.0
115.9
116.1
116.3
116.8

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 15, 1994

P erso n a l In com e în 1987 Dollars
Seasonally Adjusted

Trillion» of Dollars

t---- 1---- 1---- ----

1---- 1---- 1---- ---- 1---- [

1988

1989

i

j h

1990

Trillions of Dollars

---- 1---- 1---- ---- 1---- 1---- 1---- ---- 1---- 1---- 1---- -----1---- 1----r
1991

1992

1993

1994

The personal consumption expenditures deflator is used to calculate real personal Income
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Disposable Personal Income in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
11-92 12-92
12-92

Initial Month
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

74.8

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
5-94

3,843.9

1-93

-2.7 -45.8

2-93

-1.7 -26.3

0.2

3,652.7
3,653.2

3-93

0.1 -16.9

3.0

5.8

4-93

2.2 -10.6

5.5

8.3

10.9

5-93

2.0

-8.4

4.4

5.9

5.9

1.2

6-93

1.2

-7.6

2.8

3.5

2.8

-1.1

-3.3

7-93

0.6

-7.0

1.7

2.1

1.1

-1.9

-3.4

-3.6

8-93

1.9

-4.7

3.3

3.8

3.4

1.6

1.8

4.4

13.0

9-93

1.6

-4.3

2.7

3.1

2.6

1.0

1.0

2.5

5.6

10-93

1.8

-3.5

2.9

3.2

2.8

1.6

1.6

2.9

5.1

1.4

4.1

11-93

2.1

-2.8

3.0

3.4

3.1

2.0

2.1

3.2

5.0

2.5

4.4

4.6

12-93

2.5

-2.0

3.4

3.8

3.5

2.7

2.9

3.9

5.5

3.7

5.4

6.0

7.5

1-94

1.7

-2.5

2.4

2.6

2.3

1.4

1.4

2.1

3.1

1.2

1.8

1.1

-0.6

-8.1

3,670.5
3,702.3
3,705.9
3,695.7
3,684.5
3,722.2
-1.2

3,718.4
3,730.9
3,745.0
3,767.6
3,741.1

2-94

2.7

-1.1

3.5

3.8

3.7

3.0

3.2

4.0

5.1

3.9

4.9

5.1

5.3

4.2

18.1

3-94

2.7

-0.9

3.5

3.8

3.6

3.0

3.2

3.9

4.9

3.8

4.6

4.7

4.7

3.8

10.4

3.1

4-94

2.3

-1.1

3.0

3.2

3.0

2.3

2.4

3.0

3.8

2.7

3.2

3.1

2.8

1.7

5.1

-0.8

-4.6

5-94

2.7

-0.5

3.4

3.6

3.5

2.9

3.0

3.6

4.4

3.5

4.1

4.1

4.0

3.3

6.4

2.7

2.5

10.1

6-94

2.5

-0.5

3.1

3.3

3.1

2.6

2.7

3.2

3.8

2.9

3.4

3.3

3.2

2.4

4.7

1.6

1.1

4.0

-1.7

11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

3,793.3
3,803.1
3,788.3
3,818.7
3,813.4

Revised fro« 1991.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 1, 1994

10

R etail Sales
Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

200

200

180

120

t ------ 1------ 1------ -------1------ 1—

1988

i—

1989

------ 1------ * i*

i

1990

|

100

r

1991

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
The CPI is used to deflate retaiJ sales data.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Retail Sales in 1982-84 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
11-92 12-92

Initial Month
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

12-92

11.3

1-93

6.2

1.3

2-93

1.0

-3.9

3-93

-2.6

4-93

1.7

-0.6

-1.3

2.7

20.7

5-93

2.7

1.1

1.0

4.5

14.3

8.3

6-93

2.6

1.3

1.2

3.9

10.1

5.1

2.0

7-93

2.7

1.5

1.6

3.8

8.3

4.5

2.7

3.3

7-93

8-93

Millions of
Dollars

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94
118,673
118,801

-8.7

117,898

-6.9 -10.7 -12.6

116,581
118,424
119,213
119,414
119,734

8-93

3.0

2.0

2.1

4.0

7.7

4.6

3.4

4.1

5.0

9-93

2.7

1.7

1.8

3.4

6.3

3.7

2.5

2.7

2.4

-0.1

10-93

4.2

3.5

3.8

5.5

8.3

6.4

6.0

7.1

8.3

10.0

21.3

11-93

4.2

3.6

3.9

5.4

7.8

6.1

5.8

6.5

7.4

8.1

12.5

12-93

4.7

4.2

4.5

5.9

8.2

6.7

6.5

7.3

8.1

8.9

12.0

7.7

1-94

3.3

2.7

2.8

3.9

5.7

4.2

3.7

3.9

4.0

3.8

4.8

-0.2

2-94

4.3

3.9

4.1

5.2

7.0

5.7

5.4

5.9

6.2

6.4

7.8

4.7

4.7

1.7

20.7

3-94

5.2

4.8

5.1

6.2

8.0

6.9

6.8

7.3

7.8

8.2

9.7

7.5

8.2

7.3

20.1

4-94

4.1

3.6

3.8

4.7

6.2

5.1

4.8

5.1

5.3

5.3

6.1

3.8

3.6

1.9

7.9

2.0 -12.9

5-94

3.4

3.0

3.1

3.9

5.2

4.1

3.8

3.9

4.0

3.9

4.4

2.2

1.8

0.0

4.0

-1.1 -10.0

6-94

3.5

3.0

3.1

3.9

5.1

4.1

3.8

3.9

4.0

3.9

4.4

2.4

2.1

0.7

4.0

0.2

-5.5

-1.6

4.1

11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

120,226
120,212
122,158
122,604

4.5
11.0

123,679

-2.4 -14.2

122,107
124,034
19.5

125,885
124,443
-6.9

123,700
124,115

Retail sales data deflated by CPI-U (1982-84=100).




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 14, 1994

11

In ven tories Compared With M onthly Sales
Manufacturing and Trade
Seasonally Adjusted

Ratio

Ratio

1.60

1.60

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Manufacturing and Trade Inventories
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Honth
10-92 11-92 12-92
11-92

2.1

12-92

1.9

1.7

Initial Month
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

Millions of
Dollars
9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94
840,645

841,831

1-93

2.7

3.0

4.3

2-93

2.8

3.0

3.7

3.1

3-93

3.5

3.8

4.5

4.6

6.1

4-93

3.5

3.8

4.3

4.3

4.9

3.7

5-93

3.3

3.5

3.9

3.8

4.0

3.0

2.3

6-93

3.2

3.3

3.6

3.5

3.5

2.7

2.2

2.2

7-93

2.8

2.9

3.1

2.9

2.9

2.1

1.5

1.2

0.2

8-93

2.8

2.9

3.1

2.9

2.9

2.2

1.9

1.7

1.5

844,777
846,950
851,123
853,729
855,316
856,853
857,008
2.8

858,979

9-93

2.8

2.9

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.3

2.0

2.0

1.9

2.7

2.7

10-93

2.7

2.8

2.9

2.7

2.7

2.2

2.0

1.9

1.9

2.4

2.2

1.7

11-93

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.1

3.1

2.8

2.6

2.7

2.8

3.4

3.7

4.1

6.6

860,885
862,110
866,720

12-93

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.3

2.1

2.1

2.0

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.4

-1.6

1-94

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.6

2.6

2.3

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.3

0.2

2.1

2-94

2.8

2.9

3.0

2.9

2.9

2.6

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.8

2.8

2.9

3.2

2.0

3.9

5.7

3-94

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.2

2.1

2.0

2.0

2.3

2.2

2.1

2.2

1.1

2.0

2.0

865,584
867,065
871,110
-1.7

869,873

4-94

2.8

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.8

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.8

2.8

2.8

3.0

2.3

3.3

3.7

2.7

7.3

5-94

3.4

3.5

3.6

3.5

3.6

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.6

3.9

4.0

4.2

4.5

4.2

5.4

6.3

6.4

10.7

14.3

10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94




874,989
884,766

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 15, 1994

12

Gross D om estic P roduct
Seasonally Adjusted

Trillions of Dollars

Trillions of Dollars

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.

Gross Domestic Product in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

4-89

1.5

1-90

2.5

3.5

2-90

2.2

2.5

1.5

3-90

1.4

1.4

0.3

-0.9

4-90

0.5

0.2

-0.8

-2.0

-3.2

1-91

0.0

-0.2

-1.1

-2.0

-2.6

-2.1

2-91

0.3

0.2

-0.5

-1.0

-1.0

0.0

2.2

3-91

0.4

0.3

-0.3

-0.6

-0.5

0.3

1.6

2-91

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92

3-91

Billions of Dollars
4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94
4,856.7
4,898.3
4,917.1
4,906.5
4,867.2
4,842.0
4,867.9

1.0

4,879.9

4-91

0.4

0.2

-0.2

-0.5

-0.4

0.3

1.1

0.5

0.1

1-92

0.7

0.6

0.2

0.0

0.2

0.8

1.6

1.4

1.6

3.1

2-92

0.8

0.7

0.4

0.3

0.5

1.1

1.7

1.6

1.9

2.8

2.4

3-92

1.0

1.0

0.7

0.7

0.9

1.4

2.0

2.0

2.3

3.0

2.9

4,880.8
4,918.5
4,947.5
3.5

4,990.5

4-92

1.4

1.4

1.2

1.2

1.4

2.0

2.6

2.6

3.0

3.7

3.9

4.6

5.7

1-93

1.4

1.4

1.2

1.2

1.4

1.9

2.4

2.4

2.7

3.2

3.2

3.5

3.4

5,060.7
1.2

5,075.3

2-93

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.5

1.9

2.4

2.4

2.6

3.0

3.0

3.2

3.1

1.8

2.4

3-93

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.6

2.0

2.4

2.4

2.6

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.0

2.1

2.5

2.7

4-93

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.7

1.9

2.3

2.8

2.8

3.0

3.4

3.4

3.6

3.6

3.1

3.8

4.5

6.3

1-94

1.9

1.9

1.8

1.8

2.0

2.4

2.8

2.9

3.1

3.4

3.4

3.6

3.6

3.2

3.7

4.1

4.8

3.3

2-94

2.0

2.0

1.9

1.9

2.1

2.5

2.9

2.9

3.1

3.4

3.5

3.6

3.6

3.2

3.7

4.0

4.4

3.5

3.7

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

5,105.4
5,139.4
5,218.0
5,261.1
5,309.2

Second quarter data are advance estimates. Revised from 1991.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 30, 1994

13

Im p licit Price D eflator for GDP
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Implicit Price Deflator
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

1987 = 100
2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94
110.1

4-89

3.7

1-90

4.4

5.2

2-90

4.4

4.8

4.4

3-90

4.3

4.5

4.2

4.0

4-90

4.3

4.5

4.2

4.1

4.3

1-91

4.4

4.6

4.4

4.4

4.6

111.5
112.7
113.8
115.0
5.0

116.4

2-91

4.2

4.3

4.1

4.0

4.0

3.9

2.8

3-91

4.0

4.0

3.8

3.7

3.7

3.5

2.8

2.8

117.2

4-91

3.9

3.9

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.3

2.8

2.7

2.7

1-92

3.8

3.9

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.8

2-92

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.3

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

2.7

3-92

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.2

3.2

3.0

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.0

1.3

4-92

3.5

3.5

3.3

3.2

3.1

3.0

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.2

2.0

2.7

118.0
118.8
119.9
120.7
121.1
C.

121.9
122.9

1-93

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.1

3.0

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.5

2.4

3.0

3.3

2-93

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.1

3.0

2.9

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.3

2.2

2.5

2.5

1.6

3-93

3.2

3.2

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.1

2.0

2.1

2.0

1.3

1.0

4-93

3.1

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.0

1.9

2.0

1.8

1.3

1.1

1.3

1-94

3.1

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.1

2.0

2.1

2.0

1.7

1.7

2.1

2.9

2-94

3.1

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.1

2.2

2.2

1.9

2.0

2.4

2.9

2.9

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

123.4
123.7
124.1
125.0
125.9

Second quarter data are advance estimates. Revised fro* 1991.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 30, 1994

14

Final Sales in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92

3-91

Billions of Dollars
4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

4-89

0.7

1-90

2.9

5.2

2-90

1.8

2.4

-0.4

3-90

1.5

1.8

0.1

0.5

4-90

1.1

1.2

-0.2

0.0

-0.6

1-91

0.5

0.4

-0.7

-0.8

-1.5

-2.4

2-91

0.7

0.7

-0.2

-0.2

-0.4

-0.3

1.8

3-91

0.5

0.4

-0.3

-0.3

-0.5

-0.5

0.5

-0.8

4-91

0.4

0.4

-0.3

-0.3

-0.5

-0.4

0.2

-0.5

-0.2

1-92

0.8

0.9

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.6

1.4

1.2

2.3

4.8

2-92

0.9

0.9

0.4

0.6

0.6

0.8

1.4

1.3

2.0

3.1

1.5

3-92

1.1

1.1

0.7

0.9

0.9

1.1

1.7

1.7

2.4

3.2

2.5

3.5

4-92

1.5

1.5

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.7

2.3

2.4

3.0

3.8

3.5

4.5

5.6

1-93

1.4

1.4

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.5

2.0

2.1

2.5

3.1

2.7

3.1

2.9

0.2

2-93

1.4

1.5

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.6

2.1

2.1

2.5

3.0

2.6

2.9

2.7

1.3

2.4

3-93

1.5

1.6

1.3

1.5

1.5

1.7

2.2

2.2

2.6

3.0

2.7

3.0

2.8

1.9

2.8

3.2

4-93

1.8

1.9

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.1

2.6

2.6

3.0

3.4

3.2

3.5

3.5

3.0

4.0

4.8

6.4

1-94

1.8

1.9

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.1

2.5

2.6

2.9

3.3

3.1

3.3

3.3

2.9

3.5

3.9

4.3

2.2

2-94

1.8

1.9

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.1

2.4

2.5

2.8

3.1

2.9

3.1

3.1

2.6

3.1

3.3

3.4

1.9

1.5

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

4,831.8
4,893.6
4,889.0
4,895.6
4,888.0
4,858.4
4,879.8
4,869.5
4,867.3
4,924.8
4,943.2
4,985.3
5,054.1
5,056.8
5,086.5
5,126.5
5,207.2
5,235.7
5,255.2

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 30, 1994

Personal Consumption Expenditures in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92

3-91

Billions of Dollars
4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94
3,242.0

4-89

0.8

1-90

1.8

2.8

3,264.4
3,271.6

2-90

1.5

1.8

0.9

3-90

1.6

1.9

1.5

4-90

0.8

0.7

0.1

-0.3

-2.7

1-91

0.2

0.0

-0.7

-1.2

-2.7

-2.8

2-91

0.4

0.4

-0.1

-0.4

-1.2

-0.4

2.1

3-91

0.5

0.5

0.1

0.0

-0.6

0.2

1.7

1.3

3,288.4

2.1

3,265.9
3,242.9
3,259.5
3,269.8

4-91

0.4

0.4

0.0

-0.1

-0.6

0.0

0.9

0.4

-0.5

1-92

0.9

0.9

0.7

0.7

0.5

1.1

2.1

2.1

2.6

3,265.3
5.8

3,311.4

2-92

1.0

1.0

0.8

0.8

0.6

1.2

2.0

2.0

2.3

3.7

1.7

3-92

1.2

1.3

1.1

1.2

1.0

1.6

2.3

2.4

2.7

3.8

2.8

3.9

3,325.4

4-92

1.6

1.6

1.5

1.6

1.5

2.1

2.8

2.9

3.3

4.2

3.7

4.7

5.6

1-93

1.6

1.6

1.5

1.6

1.5

2.0

2.7

2.7

3.0

3.7

3.2

3.7

3.6

1.6

3,357.6
3,403.4
3,417.2
3,439.2

2-93

1.6

1.7

1.6

1.7

1.6

2.1

2.6

2.7

2.9

3.5

3.1

3.4

3.3

2.1

2.6

3-93

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

2.3

2.8

2.8

3.0

3.6

3.2

3.5

3.4

2.7

3.2

3.9

4-93

1.9

2.0

1.9

2.0

2.0

2.4

2.9

3.0

3.2

3.6

3.3

3.6

3.5

3.0

3.5

3.9

4.0

1-94

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.6

3.0

3.1

3.3

3.7

3.5

3.7

3.7

3.3

3.8

4.2

4.3

4.7

2-94

2.0

2.1

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.5

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.5

3.2

3.4

3.4

3.0

3.3

3.4

3.3

2.9

1.2

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

3,472.2
3,506.2
3,546.3
3,557.1

Second quarter data are advance estimates. Revised from 1991.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 30, 1994

15

Residential Fixed Investment in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
3-89

4-89

-5.9

1-90

0.4

2-90

-6.3

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-94

4-93

208.0
7.1

211.6

-6.4 -18.3

201.2

3-90

-10.5 -12.0 -20.2 -22.1

189.0

4-90

-13.5 -15.2 -21.6 -23.2 -24.3

176.3

1-91

-15.4 -17.2 -22.4 -23.7 -24.5 -24.8

2-91

-13.1 -14.3 -18.0 -17.9 -16.5 -12.3

2.2

3-91

-10.0 -10.5 -13.2 -12.1

8.7

15.6

-9.4

-3.8

164.2
165.1
171.2

4-91

-7.4

-7.6

-9.6

-8.0

-4.9

0.7

10.9

15.6

15.6

1-92

-4.8

-4.7

-6.1

-4.2

-0.8

4.7

13.7

17.8

18.9

22.4

2-92

-2.6

-2.2

-3.2

-1.2

2.2

7.5

15.4

19.0

20.2

22.6

3-92

-2.3

-2.0

-2.8

-1.0

2.1

6.5

12.9

15.1

15.0

14.8

11.2

0.8

4-92

-0.5

0.0

-0.7

1.3

4.3

8.5

14.4

16.5

16.7

17.0

15.3

11.7

23.8

1-93

-0.1

0.4

-0.2

1.6

4.4

8.2

13.2

14.9

14.7

14.6

12.7

9.5

14.2

5.3

2-93

-0.6

-0.2

-0.8

0.8

3.2

6.5

10.7

11.8

11.2

10.5

8.3

5.0

6.4

-1.3

-7.6

3-93

0.0

0.4

-0.1

1.5

3.7

6.8

10.6

11.5

11.0

10.4

8.5

5.9

7.2

2.1

0.6

9.4

4-93

1.4

1.9

1.6

3.2

5.4

8.4

12.0

13.1

12.8

12.5

11.1

9.3

11.1

8.1

9.0

18.4

28.2

1-94

1.9

2.4

2.1

3.6

5.8

8.5

11.9

12.8

12.5

12.2

11.0

9.4

10.9

8.5

9.3

15.5

18.7

10.0

2-94

2.2

2.6

2.4

3.8

5.8

8.4

11.5

12.3

12.0

11.6

10.5

9.1

10.3

8.2

8.8

13.3

14.7

8.5

7.0

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

177.5
186.7
22.7

196.5
196.9
207.7
210.4
206.3
211.0
224.5
229.9
233.8

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 30, 1994

Nonresidential Fixed Investment in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

4-89

-3.7

1-90

3.1

10.4

2-90

0.7

2.9

3-90

1.7

3.6

0.4

5.0

4-90

-0.2

0.7

-2.4

-1.6

1-91

-2.4

-2.2

-5.1

-5.4 -10.2 -12.7

2-91

-2.5

-2.3

-4.7

-4.8

1-91

2-91

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92

3-91

Billions of Dollars
4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

536.7
550.2
-4.1

544.5
551.2
540.2

-7.7

-7.9

522.2

-7.9

-3.0

518.3
514.4

3-91

-2.6

-2.4

-4.4

-4.4

-6.7

-6.3

-3.0

-3.0

4-91

-2.9

-2.8

-4.6

-4.7

-6.5

-6.2

-3.9

-4.4

-5.7

1-92

-2.6

-2.5

-4.0

-4.0

-5.4

-5.0

-2.9

-2.9

-2.9

-0.1

2-92

-1.2

-0.9

-2.1

-1.8

-2.8

-1.9

0.4

1.3

2.7

7.2

15.0

3-92

-0.7

-0.4

-1.4

-1.1

-1.8

-1.0

1.1

2.0

3.3

6.4

9.9

5.0

4-92

-0.1

0.3

-0.6

-0.3

-0.8

0.1

2.0

2.9

4.1

6.7

9.1

6.2

7.5

1-93

1.0

1.3

0.6

1.0

0.7

1.6

3.6

4.6

5.9

8.3

10.6

9.1

11.3

15.1

2-93

1.9

2.3

1.7

2.2

1.9

3.0

4.9

5.9

7.2

9.5

11.6

10.7

12.7

15.4

15.6

3-93

2.5

2.9

2.4

2.9

2.7

3.8

5.6

6.6

7.8

9.9

11.7

11.0

12.6

14.3

13.9

12.2

4-93

3.5

4.0

3.6

4.1

4.1

5.1

6.9

7.9

9.2

11.2

13.0

12.6

14.2

16.0

16.2

16.5

1-94

3.9

4.4

4.0

4.6

4.5

5.5

7.2

8.2

9.4

11.2

12.7

12.4

13.7

14.9

14.9

14.6

15.9

10.9

2-94

4.2

4.7

4.3

4.9

4.9

5.8

7.4

8.3

9.4

11.1

12.4

12.1

13.1

14.1

13.9

13.4

13.9

10.4

10.0

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

506.9
506.8
524.8
531.2
540.9
560.3
581.0
597.9
627.2

21.1

643.6
659.1

Second quarter data are advance estimates. Revised from 1991.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 30, 1994

16

Exports in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92

3-91

Billions of Dollars
4-92

4-89

13.1

1-90

12.6

12.1

2-90

10.9

9.8

7.6

3-90

7.5

5.8

2.7

-1.9

4-90

8.0

6.7

5.0

3.7

9.6

1-91

6.4

5.1

3.4

2.1

4.1

-1.1

2-91

8.3

7.6

6.7

6.4

9.4

9.3

20.7

3-91

7.3

6.5

5.6

5.2

7.1

6.3

10.2

0.6

4-91

8.0

7.4

6.8

6.6

8.4

8.1

11.4

7.0

13.7

1-92

7.8

7.3

6.7

6.5

8.0

7.7

10.0

6.7

9.8

6.1

2-92

7.2

6.7

6.1

5.9

7.1

6.6

8.3

5.3

7.0

3.8

3-92

7.1

6.5

6.0

5.8

6.8

6.4

7.8

5.3

6.6

4.3

3.4

5.3

4-92

7.1

6.6

6.1

6.0

6.9

6.5

7.7

5.6

6.7

5.0

4.6

6.2

7.2

1-93

6.5

6.0

5.5

5.3

6.1

5.7

6.5

4.7

5.4

3.8

3.2

3.8

3.0

-1.0

2-93

6.6

6.1

5.7

5.5

6.2

5.9

6.7

5.0

5.7

4.4

4.1

4.7

4.6

3.2

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94
487.7
501.8
511.1
508.6
520.4
519.0
544.0
544.8
562.6
571.0
573.1

1.5

580.5
590.7
589.2
600.2

7.7

595.3

3-93

5.9

5.5

5.0

4.8

5.4

5.0

5.6

4.1

4.5

3.3

2.8

3.1

2.5

1.0

2.1

-3.2

4-93

6.8

6.4

6.0

5.9

6.6

6.3

7.0

5.7

6.3

5.4

5.3

6.0

6.1

5.8

8.2

8.5

21.7

1-94

6.2

5.8

5.4

5.3

5.8

5.5

6.1

4.8

5.3

4.4

4.2

4.6

4.4

3.9

5.2

4.3

8.3

-3.5

2-94

6.4

6.1

5.7

5.6

6.1

5.9

6.5

5.4

5.8

5.0

4.9

5.4

5.4

5.1

6.3

6.0

9.2

3.5

11.1

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

625.2
619.6
636.1

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 30, 1994

Imports in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92

3-91

Billions of Dollars
4-92

1-93

2-93

4-89

3.3

1-90

4.4

5.6

2-90

4.8

5.5

5.4

3-90

3.7

3.8

2.9

0.5

4-90

1.0

0.4

-1.3

-4.4

1-91

-1.3

-2.3

-4.1

-7.1 -10.7 -12.2

2-91

0.8

0.3

-0.7

-2.1

-3.0

0.2

14.4

3-91

1.9

1.7

1.1

0.3

0.2

3.5

12.4

10.4

4-91

2.3

2.2

1.7

1.1

1.2

4.0

10.0

7.9

5.4

1-92

2.7

2.7

2.3

1.9

2.1

4.5

9.2

7.5

6.0

6.6

2-92

3.6

3.7

3.4

3.2

3.6

5.9

9.9

8.8

8.3

9.8

13.0

3-92

4.0

4.1

3.9

3.8

4.2

6.2

9.7

8.7

8.3

9.3

10.7

8.4

4-92

4.2

4.3

4.2

4.0

4.4

6.3

9.2

8.4

8.0

8.6

9.3

7.4

6.5

1-93

4.7

4.8

4.8

4.7

5.1

6.9

9.5

8.8

8.6

9.2

9.9

8.8

9.0

11.6

2-93

5.4

5.5

5.5

5.5

6.0

7.6

10.1

9.6

9.4

10.1

10.8

10.3

10.9

13.2

14.9

3-93

5.5

5.6

5.6

5.7

6.1

7.6

9.8

9.3

9.2

9.7

10.2

9.7

10.0

11.2

11.1

7.4

3-93

4-93

1-94
555.0
562.6
570.0
570.7

-9.1

557.2
539.4
557.8
571.8
579.4
588.8
607.1
619.4
629.3
646.8
669.6
681.6

4-93

6.1

6.3

6.3

6.4

6.8

8.3

10.4

10.0

9.9

10.5

11.1

10.7

11.2

12.4

12.7

11.6

16.0

1-94

6.3

6.4

6.5

6.6

7.0

8.4

10.3

9.9

9.9

10.4

10.9

10.6

10.9

11.8

11.9

10.9

12.7

9.5

2-94

6.7

6.9

7.0

7.1

7.5

8.8

10.7

10.3

10.3

10.8

11.3

11.1

11.5

12.4

12.5

11.9

13.5

12.3

15.1

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

707.4
723.6
749.5

Second quarter data are advance estivates. Revised fro« 1991.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 30, 1994

17

Government Purchases of Goods and Services in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-89

0.2

1-90

3.5

7.0

2-90

2.7

4.0

1.1

3-90

1.9

2.4

0.2

-0.6

4-90

2.6

3.3

2.1

2.6

5.8

1-91

2.7

3.2

2.3

2.7

4.4

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-94

4-93

912.6
928.1
930.6
929.2
942.4
3.0

949.5

2-91

2.4

2.8

1.9

2.1

3.1

1.7

0.5

3-91

1.6

1.8

0.9

0.9

1.3

-0.2

-1.7

-3.9

4-91

1.1

1.2

0.4

0.3

0.4

-0.8

-2.1

-3.4

-2.9

1-92

1.1

1.2

0.5

0.4

0.6

-0.4

-1.2

-1.8

-0.7

1.5

2-92

0.7

0.8

0.1

0.0

0.1

-0.8

-1.6

-2.1

-1.5

-0.8

-3.0

3-92

1.0

1.0

0.4

0.4

0.5

-0.2

-0.8

-1.0

-0.3

0.6

0.1

3.4

4-92

0.9

1.0

0.5

0.4

0.5

-0.1

-0.5

-0.7

-0.1

0.7

0.4

2.1

0.9

950.6
941.3
934.4
937.8
930.7
938.5
940.6

1-93

0.4

0.5

-0.1

-0.2

-0.1

-0.8

-1.2

-1.5

-1.1

-0.7

-1.2

-0.6

-2.5

-5.9

2-93

0.5

0.5

0.0

0.0

0.0

-0.6

-1.0

-1.1

-0.7

-0.4

-0.7

-0.2

-1.3

-2.4

3-93

0.5

0.6

0.1

0.0

0.1

-0.4

-0.7

-0.9

-0.5

-0.2

-0.4

0.1

-0.7

926.5
1.2

929.3
931.8

1.1

4-93

0.5

0.5

0.1

0.0

0.1

-0.4

-0.7

-0.8

-0.5

-0.2

-0.4

0.1

-0.6

-1.0

0.7

0.5

-0.1

1-94

0.2

0.2

-0.2

-0.3

-0.3

-0.7

-1.1

-1.2

-0.9

-0.7

-1.0

-0.7

»1.3

-1.8

-0.7

-1.3

-2.5

-4.9

2-94

0.1

0.1

-0.2

-0.3

-0.3

-0.7

-1.0

-1.1

-0.9

-0.7

-0.9

-0.6

-1.2

-1.6

-0.7

-1.1

-1.9

-2.7

-0.5

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

931.5
919.9
918.7

Second quarter data are advance estimates. Revised fro« 1991.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 30, 1994

Corporate Profits
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92

2-91

Billions of Dollars
3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93
357.3

3-89

-12.9

4-89

-8.2

-3.1

1-90

4.6

14.7

35.7

2-90

10.7

19.9

33.3

3-90

-0.5

2.9

4.9

-7.7 -35.0

4-90

-1.3

1.2

2.3

-6.8 -21.4

-5.0

1-91

2.4

5.2

6.9

-7.7

10.0

354.5
382.6
409.3

31.0

0.7

367.5
362.8
385.4

27.3
■

391.5

2-91

2.9

5.4

6.8

1.9

-4.3

8.8

16.4

6.5

3-91

2.3

4.4

5.5

1.2

-3.9

6.0

10.0

2.2

-1.9

4-91

2.6

4.5

5.5

1.8

-2.4

5.9

8.8

3.2

1.6

5.3

1-92

4.0

5.9

6.9

3.8

0.4

7.9

10.7

6.9

7.1

11.9

18.8

2-92

3.7

5.4

6.3

3.4

0.4

6.8

9.0

5.6

5.4

7.9

9.3

3-92

-0.6

0.5

0.9

-2.1

-5.2

-0.6

0.1

-3.9

-5.8

4-92

4.6

6.1

6.9

4.6

2.2

7.5

9.2

6.8

6.9

8.7

9.6

6.7

9.9 101.1

1-93

4.9

6.3

7.1

5.0

2.9

7.7

9.2

7.2

7.2

8.9

9.6

7.4

9.8

48.4

9.6

2-93

6.3

7.8

8.6

6.8

4.9

9.6

11.2

9.5

9.9

11.7

12.8

11.7

14.7

42.3

19.7

30.7

3-93

7.0

8.4

9.2

7.5

5.9

10.3

11.8

10.4

10.8

12.5

13.6

12.8

15.4

35.9

19.2

24.4

18.4

389.6
394.7
412.1
412.6

0.5

-6.8 -10.5 -22.3 -40.0

363.2

j

432.5
442.5
473.1

4-93

8.5

9.9

10.8

9.3

7.9

12.2

13.7

12.6

13.2

15.0

16.3

15.9

18.7

36.1

23.4

28.4

27.4

1-94

6.9

8.1

8.8

7.4

5.9

9.7

10.9

9.7

10.0

11.2

11.9

11.0

12.6

25.1

13.8

14.8

10.0

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

493.5
37.0

533.9

6.0 -17.9
3-93

508.2

4-93

Corporate profits with capital consumption and inventory valuation adjustments. First quarter data are final estimates. Revised from 1991.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 30, 1994

18

Gross Saving as a P ercen t of GDP
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Total saving equals private saving (personal saving plus business saving) plus government surplus or deficit.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Private Saving
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
4-93

Initial Quarter
2-89

3-89

3-89

0.1

4-89

4.4

8.9

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

811.2
828.6

1-90

9.4

14.3

20.1

2-90

9.6

12.9

15.0

10.1

3-90

1.4

1.8

-0.5

-9.4 -25.5

4-90

4.2

5.1

4.2

1-91

8.4

9.8

2-91

7.5

8.6

3-91

5.7

4-91

867.4
888.5
825.5

-0.7

-5.6

19.5

10.0

7.6

6.8

27.8

36.7

8.6

6.4

5.5

18.5

17.9

1.8

6.4

6.0

3.8

2.6

11.2

8.6

-3.3

-8.0

7.0

7.8

7.7

6.0

5.3

12.9

11.3

3.9

5.1

20.0

1-92

7.1

7.8

7.7

6.2

5.7

12.0

10.6

4.9

6.0

13.8

7.9

2-92

6.6

7.2

7.0

5.6

5.1

10.4

8.9

4.1

4.7

9.3

4.3

0.9

3-92

6.8

7.4

7.3

6.1

5.6

10.4

9.1

5.1

5.8

9.5

6.2

5.4

863.1
933.2
937.3
917.9
960.7
979.1
981.2
10.2

1,005.3

-4.8 -17.7

4-92

4.9

5.2

4.9

3.7

3.0

6.8

5.3

1.5

1.4

3.4

-0.3

-2.9

1-93

6.4

6.8

6.7

5.6

5.2

8.9

7.8

4.6

5.1

7.4

5.1

4.4

5.6

3.3

957.5
29.8

1,022.0

2-93

5.0

5.4

5.1

4.0

3.6

6.7

5.5

2.5

2.6

4.2

1.8

0.6

0.6

-2.5

6.2 -13.2

3-93

4.8

5.1

4.9

3.8

3.4

6.2

5.1

2.4

2.5

3.8

1.7

0.7

0.7

-1.5

4.5

-6.2

1.3

4-93

5.0

5.3

5.1

4.2

3.8

6.4

5.4

3.0

3.1

4.4

2.6

1.9

2.0

0.5

5.6

-1.4

5.1

9.0

1-94

5.3

5.6

5.4

4.6

4.2

6.7

5.8

3.6

3.8

5.0

3.5

2.9

3.2

2.1

6.6

1.5

6.9

9.8

10.6

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

986.6
989.9
1,011.4
1,037.3

First quarter data are final estimates. Revised from 1991.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 30, 1994

19

B u sin ess P rod uctivity and C om pensation
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1988

1989

1990

1991

Percent

1992

1993

1994

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Business Sector Output per Hour
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

3-89

-1.4

4-89

-0.7

0.0

1-90

0.1

0.9

1.8

2-90

0.9

1.7

2.6

3.3

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1982 - 100
1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93
109.7
109.7
110.2

111.1

3-90

0.5

1.0

1.3

1.1

-1.1

4-90

0.2

0.6

0.7

0.4

-1.1

-1.1

1-91

0.5

0.8

0.9

0.7

-0.1

0.4

1.8

2-91

0.7

1.0

1.2

1.0

0.5

1.0

2.0

2.2

3-91

0.7

1.0

1.1

1.0

0.5

0.9

1.6

1.4

4-91

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.3

1.0

1.4

2.1

2.2

2.2

3.6

1-92

1.3

1.6

1.8

1.8

1.5

2.0

2.6

2.8

3.0

4.2

4.7

2-92

1.4

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.7

2.0

2.6

2.7

2.9

3.6

3.6

2.5

3-92

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.0

1.9

2.2

2.7

2.9

3.0

3.6

3.6

3.0

3.5

4-92

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.1

2.0

2.4

2.8

3.0

3.1

3.6

3.5

3.2

3.5

3.5

1-93

1.4

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.6

1.9

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.6

2.4

1.8

1.6

0.7

-2.0

2-93

1.4

1.5

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.7

2.0

2.1

2.0

2.2

2.0

1.5

1.2

0.5

-1.0

110.8
110.5
111.0
111.6
111.8

0.7

112.8
114.1
114.8
115.8
116.8
116.2
116.2

0.0

3-93

1.4

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.6

1.8

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.3

2.1

1.7

1.5

1.0

0.2

1.4

2.8

4-93

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.1

2.0

2.2

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.8

2.7

2.4

2.4

2.2

1.9

3.2

4.9

7.0

1-94

1.7

1.9

2.0

2.0

1.9

2.1

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.3

2.2

2.0

1.7

2.7

3.6

4.0

1.0

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93




117.0
119.0
119.3

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
June 15, 1994

20

Net Federal Debt
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

3-89

7.1

4-89

8.1

9.1

1-90

10.4

12.1

15.2

2-90

10.6

11.8

13.2

11.2

3-90

10.8

11.7

12.6

11.3

11.5

4-90

11.3

12.2

13.0

12.3

12.8

14.2

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

Billions of
Dollars
3-93

4-93
2,189.3
2,237.4
2,317.9
2,380.1
2,445.8
2,528.1

1-91

11.1

11.8

12.3

11.6

11.7

11.8

9.6

2-91

11.1

11.7

12.1

11.5

11.6

11.6

10.3

11.1

3-91

11.6

12.2

12.6

12.2

12.4

12.6

12.1

13.4

15.7

2,586.5
2,655.5
2,754.2

4-91

11.5

12. G

12.3

11.9

12.0

12.1

11.6

12.4

13.0

10.3

1-92

11.6

12.0

12.3

12.0

12.1

12.2

11.8

12.4

12.8

11.4

12.4

2-92

11.6

12.0

12.3

12.0

12.1

12.2

11.8

12.3

12.6

11.6

12.2

12.1

2,822.6
2,906.5
2,990.4

3-92

11.4

11.8

12.0

11.7

11.8

11.8

11.5

11.8

11.9

11.0

11.2

10.7

9.3

4-92

11.2

11.5

11.7

11.4

11.4

11.4

11.0

11.2

11.3

10.4

10.4

9.8

8.6

8.0

1-93

11.0

11.2

11.4

11.1

11.1

11.0

10.7

10.8

10.8

10.0

10.0

9.3

8.5

8.0

8.1

3,057.5
3,116.6
3,178.1

2-93

11.0

11.3

11.4

11.2

11.2

11.1

10.8

11.0

10.9

10.3

10.3

9.8

9.3

9.3

10.0

11.9

3-93

10.6

10.8

11.0

10.7

10.6

10.6

10.2

10.3

10.2

9.5

9.4

8.9

8.3

8.1

8.1

8.1

4-93

10.5

10.7

10.8

10.5

10.4

10.4

10.0

10.1

10.0

9.4

9.2

8.8

8.3

8.1

8.1

8.1

6.2

8.0

1-94

10.3

10.4

10.5

10.2

10.2

10.1

9.8

9.8

9.7

9.1

9.0

8.5

8.0

7.8

7.8

7.7

6.4

7.3

6.7

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

3,268.6
3,304.7

4.5

3,368.7
3,423.9

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 30, 1994

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT
(billions of dollars)
Seasonally Adjusted End of Month Totals
Gross
federal debt

Federal debt held
by agencies
and trusts

Net
federal debt

Federal debt held
by Federal
Reserve Banks

Federal debt held
by private
investors

Federal debt held
by foreign
investors

1989 March
June
September
December

2738.8
2801.7
2869.3
2942.2

617.4
650.6
679.0
701.9

2122.5
2151.7
2190.8
2236.9

232.8
231.4
223.6
221.4

1886.9
1919.9
1967.3
2013.2

375.1
367.3
398.5
429.2

1990 March
June
September
December

3048.3
3146.3
3246.4
3353.0

734.2
766.9
799.0
820.6

2316.3
2380.4
2448.3
2527.5

223.9
231.1
235.5
251.3

2096.5
2153.8
2217.0
2286.0

420.5
426.0
443.9
456.6

1991 March
June
September
December

3460.5
3541.4
3680.1
3787.6

880.5
886.3
923.9
958.5

2583.4
2656.6
2757.6
2822.2

253.0
255.0
268.0
272.1

2339.8
2411.3
2500.1
2560.4

463.8
472.7
480.7
488.8

1992 March
June
September
December

3876.1
3988.9
4081.1
4160.9

978.8
998.6
1021.1
1036.4

2901.1
2992.5
3061.7
3116.5

274.0
277.0
300.1
291.7

2640.9
2727.5
2777.5
2836.6

508.4
529.1
538.4
546.4

1993 March
June
September
December

4230.6
4356.4
4424.8
4513.1

1060.0
1089.9
1122.3
1139.8

3178.1
3268.6
3304.7
3368.7

313.0
330.0
329.7
330.6

2877.7
2950.2
2995.0
3041.6

563.8
568.8
596.5
620.4

1994 March

4575.9

1160.3

3423.9

351.5

3076.1

632.5

Columns may not add because each component is seasonally adjusted separately. Gross federal debt equals debt held by agencies and trusts plus net federal debt.
Net federal debt equals debt held by Federal Reserve banks plus debt held by private investors (which includes debt held by foreign investors). Sources: Original
data may be found in the Treasury Bulletin and also in the Federal Reserve Bulletin; seasonally adjusted series prepared by this Bank.
Data have been revised to reflect changed seasonal adjustment factors.




21

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGETS
(billions of dollars, quarterly totals seasonally adjusted at annual rates)

Quarters

Receipts
* National
income accounts
budget

Expenditures
National
Cyclically
income accounts
adjusted
budget
budget

Cyclically
adjusted
budget

Surplus or deficit( - )
National
Cyclically
income accounts
adjusted
budget
budget

1987 1
2
3
4

858.4
928.6
924.5
943.5

875.1
938.1
927.2
930.0

1048.1
1058.9
1059.0
1096.3

1057.4
1060.4
1065.6
1103.0

-189.7
-130.3
-134.5
-15 2.7

-182.3
-122.3
-138.4
-173.0

1988 1
2
3
4

940.5
970.4
977.8
1000.6

924.9
949.5
953.0
971.4

1098.0
1105.0
1097.3
1135.5

1098.0
1111.4
1098.2
1156.1

-157.5
-134.6
-119.5
-134.9

-173.1
-161.9
-145.2
-184.7

1989 1
2
3
4

1050.9
1064.5
1053.6
1068.3

1014.3
1032.2
1020.2
1035.4

1160.8
1174.2
1181.5
1209.8

1181.0
1187.3
1182.0
1208.2

-110.0
-10 9.7
-128.0
-141.5

-166.7
-155.1
-161.8
-172.8

1990 1
2
3
4

1091.3
1114.5
1123.7
1115.8

1061.7
1093.4
1116.0
1132.1

1257.8
1266.5
1268.3
1306.9

1252.2
1275.4
1273.6
1311.2

-166.4
-152.0
-144.6
-191.0

-190.5
-182.0
-157.6
-179.1

1991 1
2
3
4

1120.1
1121.8
1132.5
1140.5

1160 1
1173.7
N.A.
N.A.

1264.5
1329.4
1346.0
1386.3

1257.9
1319.3
N.A.
N.A.

-144.4
-207.6
-213.6
-245.8

- 97.8
-145.6
N.A.
N.A.

1992 1
2
3
4

1155.7
1171.0
1166.5
1219.9

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

1435.6
1455.8
1460.4
1492.0

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

-279.9
-284.8
-293.9
-272.1

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

1993 1
2
3
4

1212.7
1263.7
1272.7
1313.6

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

1496.2
1500.6
1497.6
1533.7

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

-283.5
-237.0
- 224.9
-220.1

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

1994 1
2

1337.4
N.A.

N.A.
N.A.

1513.7
1521.9

N.A.
N.A.

-176.2
N.A.

N.A.
N.A.

*

N .A . — Not A vailable
Fiscal years
Actual
1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

Estimates
1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

Total budget
Receipts
Outlays
Surplus or deficit

(- )

$ 769.1 $ 854.1 $ 909.0 $ 990.7 $ 1031.3 $ 1054.3 $ 1090.5 $ 1153.5
1408.2
990.3
1003.9
1064.1
1143.2
1252.7
1323.8
1380.9
$ - 221.2 $-149.8 $ -155.2 $-152.5 $-221.4 $-269.5 $-290.4 $-254.7

$ 1259.9 $ 1354.3
1480.0
1521.4
$-220.1 $-167.1

Calendar years
National income accounts
budget
Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or deficit(

-)

$ 827.2 $ 913.8 $ 972.3 $ 1059.3 $ 1111.4 $ 1128.7 $ 1178.3 $ 1265.7
1028.2
1065.6
1109.0
1507.0
1181.6
1274.9
1331.6
1460.9
$ - 201.0 $-151.8 $ -136.6 $-122.3 $-163.5 $-202.9 $-282.7 $-241.4

Cyclically adjusted budget
Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or deficit(

-)

$ 844.1 $ 917.6 $ 949.7 $ 1025.5 $ 1100.8
1029.4
1071.6
1115.9
1189.6
1278.1
$ -185.4 $-154.0 $ -166.2 $-164.1 $-177.3

Fiscal years refer to the budget year which runs from October 1 through September 30.
Total budget outlays include federal entities that are off-budget.
Estimates from O M B ’s Mid-Session Review of the FY1994 Budget (July 14, 1994).
Cyclically adjusted budget data are in process of revision.
Totals may not add due to rounding.
Source: O ffice of M anagem ent and Budget and U.S. Department of Commerce.




22

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

G overnm ent D eficit( - ) / Surplus (+ )
Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

National income accounts basis
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Federal Defense Expenditures
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Qusrtor
3-89
4-89

-3.6

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

Initial Quarter
Annus1 Rstos
4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92

3-91

Billions of Dollars
4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

302.5

1-90

4.5

13.3

2-90

3.2

6.7

0.5

312.1

3-90

1.2

2.9

-1.9

-4.3

4-90

4.5

6.6

4.5

6.5

18.5

1-91

5.7

7.7

6.3

8.3

15.2

12.0

2-91

3.9

5.2

3.7

4.5

7.6

2.6

-6.1

312.5
309.1
322.5
331.8
326.6

3-91

2.5

3.4

1.9

2.1

3.8

-0.7

-6.5

-6.8

4-91

0.9

1.5

-0.1

-0.2

0.6

-3.4

-8.0

-9.0 -11.1

320.9

1-92

0.9

1.4

0.0

-0.1

0.7

-2.6

-5.9

-5.8

311.6

-5.3

0.8

312.2

2-92

0.6

1.0

-0.3

-0.4

0.2

-2.6

-5.3

-5.1

-4.5

-1.0

-2.8

3-92

1.4

1.9

0.8

0.9

1.5

-0.7

-2.7

-2.0

-0.7

3.0

4.1

11.6

310.0

4-92

1.1

1.5

0.5

0.4

1.0

-1.0

-2.7

-2.2

-1.2

1.4

1.6

3.9

1-93

0.2

0.5

-0.5

-0.6

-0.3

-2.2

-3.8

-3.5

-2.9

-1.2

-1.7

-1.3

-7.1 -10.9

2-93

0.0

0.3

-0.6

-0.7

-0.4

-2.1

-3.6

-3.2

-2.7

-1.2

-1.6

-1.4

-5.3

318.6
316.0

-3.2

-6.4

307.0
305.8

-1.6

3-93

-0.5

-0.3

-1.2

-1.3

-1.1

-2.7

-4.1

-3.8

-3.5

-2.3

-2.8

-2.8

-6.2

-7.1

-5.1

-8.6

4-93

-0.5

-0.3

-1.1

-1.2

-1.0

-2.5

-3.7

-3.5

-3.1

-2.0

-2.4

-2.4

-4.9

-5.3

-3.4

-4.3

0.1

1-94

-1.0

-0.9

-1.7

-1.8

-1.6

-3.0

-4.2

-4.0

-3.7

-2.9

-3.3

-3.4

-5.7

-6.2

-5.0

-6.1

-4.8

-9.5

2-94

-1.0

-0.8

-1.6

-1.7

-1.6

-2.9

-3.9

-3.8

-3.5

-2.7

-3.0

-3.1

-5.0

-5.3

-4.1

-4.8

-3.5

-5.2

-0.7

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

299.0
299.1
291.7
291.2

Second quarter data are advance estimates. Revised fro* 1991.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 30, 1994

23

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Post Office Box 442
St. Louis, Missouri 63166

Subscriber:
Please include address label w ith
su bscription in q u iries or address changes.

Federal Nondefense Expenditures
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92

3-91

Billions of Dollars
4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94
907.3

4-89

15.0

1-90

16.5

18.0

2-90

12.0

10.6

3.6

3-90

9.5

7.7

2.9

2.2

4-90

9.8

8.5

5.5

6.5

1-91

4.3

2.2

-1.4

-3.0

945.7
954.0
959.2
10.9

984.4

-5.4 -19.4

932.7
1,002.8

2-91

8.0

6.9

4.8

5.1

6.1

3.8

33.6

3-91

8.2

7.2

5.5

5.9

6.9

5.6

20.8

9.2

4-91

9.5

8.8

7.6

8.3

9.5

9.2

20.8

14.9

20.8

1-92

10.5

10.0

9.0

9.8

11.1

11.1

20.4

16.3

20.1

19.4

2-92

10.2

9.8

8.9

9.6

10.7

10.7

17.9

14.3

16.0

13.7

8.2

1,025.1
1,074.7
1,123.4
1,145.8
1,141.8

3-92

9.2

8.7

7.8

8.3

9.1

8.8

14.4

10.9

11.4

8.4

3.3

-1.4

4-92

9.5

9.0

8.2

8.7

9.5

9.3

14.2

11.2

11.6

9.4

6.3

5.3

12.5

1-93

9.1

8.7

7.9

8.3

9.0

8.8

12.9

10.2

10.4

8.4

5.9

5.1

8.5

4.6

2-93

8.6

8.2

7.5

7.8

8.3

8.1

11.6

9.2

9.1

7.3

5.1

4.3

6.2

3.2

1.9

3-93

8.1

7.7

7.0

7.3

7.7

7.4

10.6

8.2

8.1

6.4

4.4

3.7

5.0

2.6

1.6

1.3

4-93

8.4

8.0

7.4

7.6

8.1

7.8

10.7

8.7

8.6

7.2

5.5

5.1

6.5

5.0

5.1

6.8

12.6

1-94

7.7

7.3

6.6

6.8

7.2

6.9

9.4

7.5

7.3

5.9

4.3

3.7

4.6

3.1

2.8

3.0

3.9

-4.0

2-94

7.4

7.0

6.4

6.6

6.9

6.6

8.9

7.1

6.9

5.6

4.1

3.6

4.4

3.1

2.8

3.0

3.6

-0.6

2.9

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

1,176.0
1,189.2
1,194.8
1,198.6
1,234.6
1,222.0
1,230.7

Second quarter data are advance estimates. Revised from 1991.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 30, 1994

24