Full text of National Economic Trends : August 1992
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August 1992 National Economic Trends Medical Care Price Increases: A Long-Running Story from January 1957 to June 1992, the CPI less medical care has increased at a 4.6 percent rate, while medical care prices have risen at a 6.7 percent rate. Given the relative stability of overall consumer prices recently, the relative weight of medical care in the basket of consumer prices, and the historical trend for medical care prices to increase faster than the gen eral inflation rate, it is arguable whether rising costs in the health care sector are of great concern. A higher rate o f increase of medical care prices may simply represent the effects of a resource allocation by con sumers who demand a high standard of medical care. The rate of increase in medical care prices is presently nearly double the rate of increase in the general level of prices. An understanding of the importance of these price increases for the typical consumer and the underlying trend in this industry is crucial for coherent policymaking. Two aspects of — Kevin L. Kliesen inflation measurement are important in this regard. First, the consumer price index (CPI) is composed o f seven major components, each weighted according to its importance in the CPI for Medical Care and CPI Less Medical Care consumer’s “basket” of goods and services purchased. O f these seven components, the Index (1957 = 1.0) Seasonally Adjusted weight attributed to medical care is 6.7 percent. This makes it the fourth most important com ponent, though it is significantly less important than housing (41.5), food and beverages (17.6) and transportation (17.0). A second aspect, often overlooked, is that the rate o f increase o f medical care prices has historically exceeded the broad inflation rate and is not just a recent development. For example, from 1957 to 1968, consumer prices less medical care increased at an annual rate of 2 percent, while medical care prices rose at a 4 percent rate (see figure). This was followed by a 7.2 percent rate of increase in consumer prices less medical care and an 8.4 percent rate of increase for medical care prices over the period 1968 to 1983. For the whole period, Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System. National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research and Public Information Division. Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing Research and Public Information. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office Box 442. St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or by calling (314) 444-8809. C on su m er P rice In dex - All U rban C on su m ers Percent Change From Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted Percent 1986 1987 1988 1989 Percent 1990 1991 1992 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Consumer Price Index (Compounded Ajinual Rates o f Change) Teminal Month 11-90 12-90 Initial M onth 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 1982-84=100 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 8-91 1-92 12-90 3.6 1-91 4.1 4.6 2-91 3.3 3.2 1.8 3-91 2.9 2.7 1.8 1.8 4-91 2.9 2.7 2.1 2.2 2.7 5-91 2.9 2.7 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.7 6-91 3.0 2.9 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.6 7-91 2.7 2.6 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.2 0.9 8-91 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.2 3.6 9-91 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.0 4.0 4.5 10-91 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.6 3.6 2.7 11-91 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.8 3.9 3.6 4.5 12-91 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.6 3.6 3.2 3.5 2.6 1-92 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.8 3.1 3.0 2.6 2.6 1.8 0.9 2-92 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.2 3.1 2.8 2.9 2.3 2.2 3.5 2-92 3-92 4-92 5-92 134.2 134.7 134.9 135.1 135.4 135.7 136.1 136.2 136.6 137.1 137.4 137.9 138.2 138.3 138.7 3-92 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.3 3.5 4.9 6.2 4-92 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.2 3.3 4.1 4.4 2.6 5-92 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1 2.9 3.0 3.5 3.5 2.2 1.7 6-92 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.5 3.5 2.6 2.6 3.5 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4 -92 5-92 139.4 139.7 139.9 140.3 Pr e pared by Federal R e s e r v e Bank of St. Louis July 14, 1992 2 Consumer Price Index - Food (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) T e r minal Hon t h 11-90 12-90 Initial Honth 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 1982-84=100 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 5-92 134.9 12-90 1.8 1-91 3.2 4.5 2-91 1.8 1.8 -0.9 3-91 2.2 2.4 1.3 3.6 4-91 3.1 3.4 3.0 5.0 6.4 5-91 3.0 3.2 2.9 4.2 4.5 2.7 6-91 3.3 3.6 3.4 4.5 4.8 4.0 5.4 7-91 2.1 2.2 1.8 2.3 2.0 0.6 -0.4 -5.9 8-91 1.6 1.6 1.1 1.5 1.1 -0.2 -1.2 -4.3 -2.6 9-91 1.6 1.6 1.2 1.5 1.2 0.2 -0.4 -2.3 -0.4 1.8 10-91 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.0 -0.5 -2.0 -0.6 0.4 -0.9 11-91 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.7 1.4 0.8 0.4 -0.5 0.9 2.1 2.2 5.4 12-91 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.9 1.7 1.1 0.9 0.1 1.4 2.4 2.7 4 .5 135.4 135.3 135.7 136.4 136.7 137.3 136.6 136.3 136.5 136.4 137.0 3.6 137.4 136.8 1-92 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 -0.6 0.3 0.9 0.7 1.2 -0.9 -5.1 2-92 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.5 -0.1 0.8 1.3 1.2 1.8 0.6 -0.9 3 -92 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.1 0.6 1.4 2.0 2.1 2.7 2.0 1.5 4.9 6.3 1.4 0.9 3.0 2.7 -0.9 0.4 -0.2 1.1 0.3 -2.6 -4.3 0.1 1.2 0.7 -1.2 -1.3 1.8 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 5-92 4-9 2 5 -92 6-92 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.0 1.2 0.6 1.7 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.7 1.1 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 1.6 0.9 1.0 2.1 1.1 1.2 0.6 137.2 3.6 137.9 137.8 137.3 137.5 Prepared by Federal R eserve Bank of St. Louis July 14, 1992 Consumer Price Index - Energy (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) T e r ninal Mo n t h 11-90 12-90 12-90 Initial Month 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 1982-84=100 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 5-92 110.5 -7.3 1-91 -17.0 -25.7 107.8 2-91 -24.4 -31.7 -37.2 103.7 3-91 -24.4 -29.4 -31.1 -24.5 101.3 4-91 -20.8 -23.9 -23.2 -15.1 5-91 -17.0 -18.8 -17.0 -8.9 0.0 4.9 6-91 -15.1 -16.3 -14.3 -7.3 -0.8 1.2 7-91 -14.0 -14.9 -12.9 -7.0 -2.1 -1.2 -4.1 -5.8 8-91 -11.8 -12.4 -10.3 -4.8 -0.2 0.9 -0.4 0.6 7.4 9-91 -10.5 -10.8 -8.8 -3.8 0.2 100.9 -4.6 101.3 101.1 -2.3 100.6 101.2 101.4 1.2 0.3 1.2 4.9 2.4 10-91 -9.6 -9.8 -7.8 -3.3 0.2 1.0 0.2 0.9 3.2 1.2 0.0 11-91 -8.1 -8.2 -6.2 -1.9 1.3 2.2 1.8 2.6 4.8 4.0 4.8 9.9 12-91 -7.4 -7.4 -5.6 -1.6 1.3 2.1 1.7 2.4 4.1 3.3 3.6 5.4 1-92 -8.1 -8.1 -6.5 -3.0 -0.6 -0.1 -0.7 -0.5 0.4 -0.9 -1.8 -2.3 -7.9 -16.2 2-92 -8.2 -8.3 -6.8 -3.7 -1.5 -1.2 -1.8 -1.8 -1.2 -2.6 -3.5 -4.4 -8.7 -13.3 -10.2 99.9 3 -92 -7.3 -7.3 -5.8 -2.9 -0.8 -0.4 -0.9 -0.8 -0.1 -1.2 -1.8 -2.1 -4.9 -6.9 -1.8 7.5 100.5 4 -92 -6.6 -6.6 -5.2 -2.3 -0.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 0.4 -0.4 -0.8 -1.0 -3.0 -4.0 0.4 6.2 5-92 -5.9 -5.8 -4.4 -1.7 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.2 -1.4 6 -92 -4.4 -4.3 -2.8 -0.1 1.7 2.2 2.0 2.4 3.1 2.7 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 101.4 102.2 102.3 1.2 -1.9 100.8 2.1 6.1 16.5 26.4 4-92 5-92 2.4 6.5 11.2 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 3.1 2.2 101.5 6.6 7.4 12.5 2.8 100.9 4.9 103.5 P r e p a r e d by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis July 14, 1992 P ro d u cer P ric e In d ex — F in ish ed Goods Percent Change From Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted Percent 1986 1987 1988 1989 Percent 1990 1991 1992 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Producer Price Index - Finished Goods (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terminal Month 11-90 12-90 Initial Month 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 1982 = 100 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 12-90 -3.8 1-91 -0.5 3.0 2-91 -2.9 -2.4 3-91 -3.2 -2.9 -5.7 -3.9 4-91 -2.1 -1.7 -3.2 -1.0 2.0 5-91 -1.5 -1.0 -1.9 0.0 2.0 2.0 6-91 -1.5 -1.1 -1.9 -0.5 0.7 0.0 7-91 -1.6 -1.3 -2.0 -0.8 0.0 -0.7 -2.0 -2.0 8-91 -1.1 -0.7 -1.3 -0.2 0.6 0.2 -0.3 0.5 3.0 9-91 -0.7 -0.3 -0.7 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.5 1.3 3.0 3.0 10-91 -0.4 0.0 -0.3 0.6 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 11-91 -0.2 0.1 -0.2 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.6 2.5 2.3 2.0 1.0 12-91 -0.3 0.0 -0.3 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.7 1.2 1.8 1.5 1.0 0.0 -1.0 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 5-92 122.1 122.4 -7.6 121.6 121.2 121.4 121.6 -2.0 121.4 121.2 121.5 121.8 122.1 122.2 122.1 1-92 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.7 1.2 0.8 0.2 -0.7 -1.5 -1.9 2-92 -0.2 0.1 -0.2 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.5 3.0 3-92 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.7 2.0 1.0 4-92 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.6 1.0 2.0 1.5 2.0 5-9 2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.8 2.7 2.6 3.5 5.0 6-92 0.4 0.7 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.8 2.7 3.3 4.0 3.0 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 5-92 121.9 122.2 122.3 122.5 123.0 123.3 Pr e p a r e d by Federal Res e r v e Bank of St. Louis July 10, 1992 4 C ivilian E m p lo y m e n t and U n e m p lo y m e n t Rate Seasonally Adjusted Percent Millions of Persons 1986 1987 1988 1991 1990 1989 1992 Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Civilian Employment (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terminal Month 11-90 12-90 Thousands of Persons Initial Mo n t h 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 5-92 117,476 12-90 2.1 1-91 -1.5 -5.0 2-91 -1.1 -2.7 -0.4 3-91 -1.1 -2.2 -0.7 -1.1 4-91 0.2 -0.2 1.4 2.3 5.8 5-91 -0.9 -1.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.5 -6.5 6-91 -0.5 -1.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 -2.4 1.9 7-91 -0.7 -1.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -2.2 0.0 -1.8 8-91 -0.9 -1.3 -0.7 -0.8 -0.7 -2.3 -0.8 -2.2 -2.5 9-91 -0.2 -0.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 -0.6 0.9 0.6 1.9 6.4 10-91 -0.4 -0.6 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.9 0.3 -0.1 0.5 2.0 -2.3 11-91 -0.4 -0.7 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.9 0.1 -0.3 0.1 1.0 -1.6 -1.0 12-91 -0.4 -0.6 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.8 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.6 -1.2 -0.7 -0.5 1-92 -0.1 -0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 -0.3 0.5 0.3 0.7 1.3 0.1 0.9 1.8 4.1 2-92 -0.2 -0.3 0.1 0.1 0-2 -0.4 0.4 0.2 0.5 1.0 -0.1 0.5 0.9 1.6 -0.8 3-92 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.8 1.3 0.4 1.0 1.5 2.1 1.2 3.2 4-92 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.5 0.9 1.4 1.9 2.5 1.9 3.3 3.4 5-92 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.3 0.7 1.2 1.5 1.9 1.4 2.1 1.6 -0.2 6-92 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 0.9 1.4 0.8 -0.5 -0.8 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 1-92 2-92 3 -92 4-92 5-92 116,977 116,937 116,834 1 17,388 116,730 1 16,909 1 16,729 116,484 117,089 116,867 116,772 116,728 117,117 117,043 117,348 1 17,675 117,656 117,574 P r e p a r e d by F ederal R eserve Bank of St. Louis July 3, 1992 P a y ro ll E m p lo y m e n t Seasonally Adjusted Millions of Persons Millions of Persons 125 125 115 115 105 105 95 85 75 65 1986 1987 1988 1989 1992 Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicatedPrepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Payroll Employment (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terminal Month 11-90 12-90 T hous a n d s of P ersons Initial Month 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4 -92 5-92 109,101 12-90 -2.0 1-91 -2.4 -2.8 2-91 -2.6 -3.0 -3.1 3-91 -2.6 -2.7 -2.7 -2.3 4-91 -2.4 -2.5 -2.4 -2.1 -1.8 5-91 -1.9 -1.8 -1.6 -1.1 -0.4 1.0 6-91 -1.7 -1.6 -1.4 -0.9 -0.4 0.3 -0.4 7-91 -1.5 -1.4 -1.2 -0.8 -0.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 8-91 -1.2 -1.1 -0.9 -0.5 -0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 108,845 108,557 108,344 108,178 108,265 108,227 108,190 0.9 108,267 9-91 -1.1 -1.0 -0.8 -0.4 -0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.3 10-91 -1.0 -0.9 -0.7 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 -0.1 11-91 -1.0 -1.0 -0.8 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.5 -0.9 -1.6 12-91 -1.0 -0.9 -0.7 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.7 0.2 1-92 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.2 -0.6 2-92 -0.8 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.5 3-92 -0.7 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 108,293 108,285 108,139 108,154 108,100 108,142 108,200 0.6 4-92 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.3 2.0 5-92 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.0 6-92 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 -0.1 -1.3 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 1-92 2-92 3 -92 4-92 5-92 108,377 108,470 108,353 P r e p a r e d by F ederal Res e r v e Bank of St. Louis Jul y 3, 1992 Service-Producing Employment (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Terninal Month 11-90 12-90 Initial Month 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 12-90 -1.4 1-91 -1.2 -1.0 2-91 -1.6 -1.7 -2.4 3-91 -1.5 -1.5 -1.7 -1.0 4-91 -1.4 -1.4 -1.6 -1.1 5-91 -1.0 -0.9 -0.9 -0.4 0.0 1.2 6-91 -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 -0.2 0.1 0.7 0.2 7-91 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 -0.2 0.0 0.4 0.0 -0.3 8-91 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.4 1.1 8-91 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 5-92 Thousands of Persons 84,722 84,650 84,476 84,406 -1.2 84,318 84,401 84,418 84,398 84,476 9-91 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0,6 1.0 0.9 10-91 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.6 11-91 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 -0.1 -0.8 12-91 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.6 1-92 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 2-92 -0.2 -0.1 Q.Û 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.6 84,538 84,581 84,526 84,570 84,573 84,617 3-92 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 4-92 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.6 2.6 5-92 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.9 1.2 6-92 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.4 -0.3 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 5-92 84,668 84,847 84,930 84,909 Prepa r e d by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis July 3, 1992 Goods-Producing Employment (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terninal Mo n t h 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 Initial Mon t h Persons 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 12-90 -4.0 1-91 -6.4 -8.7 2-91 -6.1 -7.1 -5.5 3-91 -6.3 -7.0 -6.2 -6.9 4-91 -5.8 -6.3 -5.4 -5.4 -3.8 5-91 -4.8 -5.0 -4.0 -3.6 -1.8 0.2 6-91 -4.5 -4.6 -3.8 -3.4 -2.1 -1.3 -2.7 7-91 -4.1 -4.1 -3.3 -2.9 -1.8 -1.1 -1.8 -0.9 8-91 -3.6 -3.6 -2.8 -2.4 -1.5 -0.9 -1.2 -0.5 -0.1 9-91 -3.5 -3.4 -2.7 -2.3 -1.5 -1.1 -1.4 -0.9 -0.9 -1.8 10-91 -3.4 -3.3 -2.7 -2.3 -1.7 -1.3 -1.6 -1.3 -1.5 -2.2 -2.5 11-91 -3.5 -3.4 -2.9 -2.6 -2.0 -1.8 -2.1 -2.0 -2.2 -3.0 -3.5 -4.5 12-91 -3.3 -3.3 -2.8 -2.5 -2.0 -1.7 -2.0 -1.9 -2.1 -2.6 -2.8 -3.0 -1.5 1-92 -3.3 -3.2 -2.8 -2.5 -2.1 -1.9 -2.1 -2.0 -2.2 -2.6 -2.9 -3.0 -2.2 -2.9 Thousands of 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 5-92 24,379 24,195 24,081 23,938 23,860 23,864 23,809 23,792 23,791 23,755 23,704 23,613 23,584 23,527 2-92 -3.1 -3.0 -2.6 -2.3 -1.9 -1.7 -1.9 -1.8 -1.9 -2.2 -2.3 -2.2 -1.5 -1.5 -0.1 3-92 -2.9 -2.8 -2.4 -2.1 -1.7 -1.5 -1.7 -1.5 -1.6 -1.9 -1.9 -1.7 -1.0 -0.9 0.1 0.4 4-92 -2.7 -2.6 -2.2 -2.0 -1.6 -1.4 -1.5 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 -1.6 -1.5 -0.8 -0.7 0.1 0.1 5-92 -2.5 -2.4 -2.0 -1.8 -1.4 -1.2 -1.4 -1.2 -1.3 -1.4 -1.4 -1.2 -0.6 -0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 6-92 -2.7 -2.6 -2.2 -2.0 -1.7 -1.5 -1.6 -1.5 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 -1.2 -1.2 -0.8 -1.0 -1.5 -2.2 -4.8 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 5-92 23,525 23,532 -0.1 23,530 23,540 23,444 Pre p a r e d by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis July 3, 1992 C hange in th e E m p lo y m e n t Cost In dex and Its C o m p o n en ts Percent Change From Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted Percent Percent Total compensation is the sum of benefits and wages and salaries for private industry workers. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Employment Cost Index - Total Compensation (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terninal Quarter Initial Q uarter 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 June 1989 = 100 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 93.3 4-87 3.5 1-88 4.4 5.2 2-88 4.6 5.2 5.2 3-88 4.4 4.7 4.5 3.8 4-88 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.4 5.1 1-89 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.8 4.6 2-89 4.5 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.6 4.3 4.1 3-89 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.7 4-89 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.7 5.1 4.8 1-90 4.7 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.2 5.6 2-90 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.9 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.0 5.1 4.7 3-90 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.9 4.8 4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 4.7 4.7 4-90 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.4 4.2 3.8 1-91 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.4 2-91 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.7 4.5 3-91 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.5 4.3 94.5 95.7 96.6 97.8 98.9 99.9 101.2 5.3 102.4 103.8 105.0 106.2 107.2 4.9 108.5 109.7 4.1 110.8 4-91 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.0 1-92 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 2-92 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.2 2.5 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 111.9 113.0 113.7 Data are for the last mon t h of quarter Pr e p a r e d by Federal Res e r v e Bank of St. Louis July 28, 1992 8 Industriali P r o d u c tio n Seasonally Adjusted 1987=100 1987=100 115 ----- r 115 110 105 100 95 90 1986 1987 1988 1992 1991 1990 1989 Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Industrial Production (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Ter m i n a l Month 11-90 12-90 Initial Mo n t h 1-91 2-91 12-90 -11.5 1-91 -9.1 -6.5 2-91 -9.3 -8.1 -9.7 3-91 -8.9 -8.0 -8.7 -7.7 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 1987 = 100 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 5-92 107.2 106.6 105.7 105.0 4-91 -6.1 -4.7 -4.1 -1.1 5.9 5-91 -3.5 -1.8 -0.6 2.7 8.3 10.7 6-91 -1.6 0.2 1.6 4.6 9.1 10.7 10.6 7-91 -0.3 1.4 2.8 5.5 9.1 10.2 10.0 9.3 8-91 -0.4 1.1 2.3 4.4 7.0 7.3 6.2 4.0 -1.1 9-91 0.1 1.5 2.5 4.4 6.6 6.7 5.7 4.2 1.7 4.5 10-91 0.1 1.3 2.3 3.9 5.6 5.6 4.6 3.1 1.1 2.2 0.0 11-91 -0.2 0.9 1.7 3.0 4.5 4.3 3.2 1.8 0.0 0.4 -1.6 -3.3 12-91 -0.8 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.1 2.7 1.6 0.2 -1.5 -1.7 -3.6 -5.4 -7.5 1-92 -1.3 -0.5 0.0 0.9 1.8 1.4 0.3 -1.1 -2.8 -3.1 -4.9 -6.5 -8.0 -8.6 2-92 -0.8 0.0 0.5 1.4 2.3 1.9 1.0 0.1 -1.4 -1.5 -2.6 -3.3 -3.3 -1.1 7.0 3-92 -0.5 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.5 2.2 1.4 0.4 -0.7 -0.6 -1.5 -1.8 -1.4 0.7 5.8 4.6 4-92 -0.1 0.6 1.1 1.9 2.7 2.5 1.7 0.9 0.0 0.1 -0.5 -0.6 0.0 2.0 5.7 5.1 5.7 5-92 0.2 0.9 1.4 2.2 2.9 2.7 2.1 1.3 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.9 2.7 5.7 5.3 5.7 5.7 6-92 -0.1 0.6 1.1 1.8 2.4 2.2 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.2 1.5 3.6 2.8 2.2 0.6 -4.3 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 1*92 2-92 3-92 4-9 2 5-92 105.5 106.4 107.3 108.1 108.0 108.4 108.4 108.1 107.4 106.6 107.2 107.6 108.1 108.6 108.2 Pr e p a r e d by Federal R eserve Bank of St. Louis July 15, 1992 9 P e r so n a l In co m e in 1987 D ollars Seasonally Adjusted Trillions of Dollars Trillions of Dollars 4.4 4.0 3.6 3.2 2.8 1986 1988 1987 1989 1991 1990 1992 The personal consumption expenditures deflator is used to calculate real personal income Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Disposable Personal Income in 1987 Dollars (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terminal Month 11-90 12-90 12-90 Initial Month 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 Bi l l i o n s of Dollars A nnual Rates 5-92 11.4 3,538.1 1-91 -2.9 -15.4 2-91 -2.7 -9.1 -2.3 3-9Ì -1.0 -4.9 0.9 3 ,489.3 3 ,482.5 4.1 3,4 9 4 . 3 4-91 -0.8 -3.6 0.7 2.2 0.3 5-91 0.0 -2.1 1.5 2.8 2.1 4.0 6-91 0.4 -1.4 1.7 2.7 2.3 3.3 2.5 7-91 0.2 -1.3 1.2 1.9 1.4 1.8 0.7 -1.2 8-91 0.2 -1.1 1.2 1.7 1.3 1.5 0.7 -0.2 0.8 9-91 0.2 -1.0 0.9 1.4 1.0 1.1 0.4 -0.3 0.2 -0.5 10-91 0.6 -0.4 1.4 1.9 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.1 1.8 2.4 11-91 0.2 -0.8 0.8 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 -4.3 12-91 1.2 0.4 2.0 2.4 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.9 3.4 4.8 4.5 14.2 1-92 1.1 0.3 1.7 2.1 1.9 2.1 1.8 1.7 2.2 2.5 3.3 2.6 6.3 3,4 9 5 . 2 3,5 0 6 . 6 3 ,513.9 3,510.4 3,512.7 3,511.3 5.3 3 ,526.4 3,513.4 3,552.5 -1.1 3,549.3 2-92 1.4 0.7 2.0 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.7 3.1 3.8 3.4 6.1 2.3 5.8 3-92 1.6 1.0 2.3 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.6 3.1 3.4 4.1 3.8 6.0 3.4 5.6 3 ,565.9 5.5 3 ,581.9 4-92 1.3 0.7 1.9 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.4 2.6 3.0 2.6 4.1 1.7 2.7 1.1 -3.0 5-92 1.3 0.8 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.3 2.4 2.8 2.4 3.6 1.6 2.3 1.2 -0.9 1.2 6-92 1.1 0.6 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.8 1.9 2.2 1.8 2.7 0.9 1.3 0.2 -1.6 -0.8 -2-3 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-9 2 5-9 2 10 3,572.7 3,576.3 3,567.9 P r e p a r e d by Federal Res e r v e B ank of St. Louis Jul y 31, 1992 R eta il S a les Seasonally Adjusted Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars 170 150 130 110 90 1988 1987 1986 1990 1989 1991 1992 Shaded area represents a period of business recession. The CPI is used to deflate retail sales data. Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St, Louis Retail Sales in 1982-84 Dollars (Compounded Annua! Rates o f Change) Terminal Month 11-90 12-90 12-90 1-91 M illions of D ollars Initial Month 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 5-92 113,288 -20.2 110,973 -21.1 -21.9 112,980 2-91 -8.3 -1.6 24.0 3-91 -4.4 1.5 15.7 8.0 4-91 -5.0 -0.7 7.5 0.1 5-91 -2.5 1.5 6-91 -2.7 0.5 5.8 1.6 -0.4 3.1 -4.2 7-91 -2.2 0.6 5.0 1.6 0.0 2.5 -1.5 8-91 -3.3 -0.9 2.5 -0.7 -2.3 -1.1 -4.8 -5.1 -11.1 9-91 -3.0 0.8 2.2 -0.6 -2.0 -0.9 -3.7 -3.6 -5.9 -0.4 10-91 -2.8 -0.8 1.8 -0.6 -1.8 -0.9 -3.1 -2.9 -4.2 -0.6 -0.8 11-91 -3.2 -1.5 0.8 -1.5 -2.6 -1.9 -3.9 -3.9 -5.1 -3.0 -4.3 -7.8 12-91 -3.0 -1.5 0.7 -1.4 -2.4 -1.8 -3.5 -3.4 -4.3 -2.6 -3.3 -4.5 -1.1 1-92 -1.0 0.7 2.8 1.1 0.4 1.3 0.2 0.8 0.7 3.2 4.2 5.8 13.4 30.0 2-92 -0.2 1.4 3.5 1.9 1.4 2.3 1.4 2.1 2.2 4.6 5.7 7.3 12.9 20.6 11.9 115,179 3 -92 -1.4 0.0 1.8 0.2 -0.4 0.2 -0.8 -0.4 -0.6 1.0 1.2 1.6 4.1 5.9 -4.4 -18.3 113,252 4-92 -1.3 0.1 1.7 0.3 -0.3 0.3 -0.6 -0.2 -0.4 1.0 1.2 1.6 3.5 4.7 -2.5 -9.0 1.3 5-92 -1.0 0.2 1.8 0.5 0.0 0.5 -0.3 0.1 1.5 1.8 3.5 4.4 -1.2 -5.2 2.2 3.0 6-92 -0.9 0.3 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.7 -0.1 0.2 0.2 1.4 1.5 1.8 3.3 4.0 -0.5 -3.4 2.2 2.7 2.3 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 1-92. 2-92 3 -92 4-92 5-92 8.4 3.6 113,710 113,005 -7.2 1.5 113,991 11.0 113,589 113,711 1.3 -0.1 112,605 1.2 112,567 112,496 111,742 111,635 114,106 113,375 113,656 113,872 R etail sales d ata deflated by CPI-U (1982-84=100). Data r e v i s e d fro« 1982. P r e p a r e d by F ederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Jul y 14, 1992 11 In v e n to r ie s C om pared With M onthly S a les Manufacturing and Trade Seasonally Adjusted Ratio 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Manufacturing and Trade Inventories (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terainal Month 10-90 11-90 12-90 Millions of Dollars Initial Month 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 841,069 11-90 2.8 12-90 -2.2 -7.0 1-91 0.9 -0.1 7.4 2-91 -0.2 -1.2 1.8 3-91 -2.6 -4.0 -2.9 -7.7 -11.7 4-91 -2.5 -3.5 -2.7 -5.8 -6.9 -1.9 5-91 -3.0 -4.0 -3.4 -5.9 -6.7 -4.0 -6.1 6-91 -3.3 -4.2 -3.7 -5.8 -6.3 -4.5 -5.8 7-91 -3.1 -3.8 -3.3 8-91 -2.8 -3.4 -2.9 9-91 -2.2 -2.7 10-91 -1.7 -2.1 -1.6 11-91 -1.5 -1.9 -1.4 12-91 -1.1 -1.4 -0.9 1-92 -1.4 -1.7 -1.3 -2.0 2-92 -1.3 -1.6 -1.2 -1.8 3-92 -1.1 -1.3 -0.9 -1.5 4-92 -0.8 -1.0 -0.7 -1.2 5-92 -0.8 -0.9 -0.6 10-90 11-90 12-90 835,985 -2.2 840,981 838,491 -3.5 -5.0 -4.3 -3.3 -2.6 -2.2 -5.3 -4.4 -3.3 829,818 -3.6 -2.9 -1.8 828,508 824,177 820,357 -5.4 819,641 -3.3 -1.0 -2.1 -0.4 0.2 -1.8 -0.6 1.0 2.0 4.0 1.6 2.5 3.7 3.4 -4.2 -3.1 819,746 822,401 -2.5 -1.1 -0.9 0.1 -2.1 -0.8 -0.6 0.3 1.5 2.2 2.8 2.3 1.9 2.5 3.1 2.8 824,672 825,505 1.2 -1.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.8 2.6 4.0 -1.9 -0.8 -0.7 0.0 0.8 1.1 1.3 0.6 -0.3 -1.0 -5.7 -1.7 -0.7 -0.6 0.1 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.6 0.0 -0.4 -2.6 0.7 -1.4 -0.4 -0.3 0.3 1.0 1.2 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.3 -1.0 1.5 2.3 -1.0 -0.1 0.0 0.6 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.2 2.2 3.0 3.6 -1.1 -0.9 -0.1 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.3 1.8 2.2 2.1 0.7 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 1-92 2-92 3-9 2 4-92 -1.7 828,18** 824,150 824,609 826,204 828,630 829,117 Data revised fro* 1982. Pr e p a r e d by F ederal R e s e r v e Bank of St. Louis J uly 15, 1992 Gross D o m estic P ro d u ct Seasonally Adjusted Trillions of Dollars Trillions of Dollars Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Gross Domestic Product in 1987 Dollars (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) T erminal Q ua r t e r 3 -8 7 <*-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 Initial Quarter Annual Rates 3-89 4-89 1-90 4-87 5.9 1-88 4.3 2.6 2-88 4.3 3.5 4.3 3-88 3.8 3.2 3.4 4-88 3.8 3.3 3.6 3.2 3.9 1-89 3.7 3.3 3.5 3.2 3.5 3.2 2-89 3.5 3.1 3.1 2.9 3.0 2.5 1.8 3-89 3.0 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.2 1.7 0.9 0.0 4-89 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.1 1.6 1.1 0.7 1.5 1-90 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.4 2.2 2.8 Bi l l i o n s of D ollars 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 4,6 2 5 . 5 4,65 5 . 3 4 ,704.8 2.5 4,734.5 4,779.7 4,817.6 4 ,839.0 4,839.0 4,85 6 . 7 4,89 0 . 8 2-90 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.8 1.9 1.0 3-90 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.7 -0.3 -1.6 4-90 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.5 -1.6 -2.8 -3.9 1-91 1.5 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.6 -1.0 -1.9 -2.9 -3.5 -3.0 2-91 1.5 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -1.2 -1.7 -1.8 -0.7 1.7 3-91 1.5 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.8 -1.2 -1.0 -0.1 1.5 1.2 4-91 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.6 -0.9 -0.7 0.1 1.2 0.9 0.6 1-92 1.5 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.7 1.6 1.6 1.7 2.9 2-92 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.8 1.6 1.5 1.6 2.2 1.4 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 4,9 0 2 . 7 4,8 8 2 . 6 4,8 3 3 . 8 4,7 9 6 . 7 4,817.1 4,8 3 1 . 8 4,8 3 8 . 5 4,8 7 3 . 7 4 ,890.5 S e cond quar t er 1992 data are anvance estimates. Data revised froo 1989. P r e p a r e d by F ederal Reserve Ban k o f St. Louis J u l y 30, 1992 13 Im p lic it P rice D efla to r fo r GDP Percent Change From Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted Percent Percent Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Implicit Price Deflator (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terminal Quarter Initial Q uarter 3-87 4 -87 1-88 2-88 3 -88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 1987 = 100 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 101.2 4-8 7 3.6 1-88 3.6 3.6 2-88 3.9 4.0 4.4 3-8 8 4.2 4.4 4.8 5.1 4-8 8 4.1 4.2 4.5 4.5 3.9 1-89 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.6 5.4 2-89 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.6 5.0 4.6 3 -89 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.6 4.2 3.8 4-89 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.0 3.7 3.7 1-90 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.4 2-90 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.6 4.8 3-9 0 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.7 4-90 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.3 3.9 1-91 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.6 5.3 2-91 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.4 3.5 3-91 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.7 2.9 2.4 4-91 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.4 2.8 2.4 2.4 1-92 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.3 2.8 2.6 2.7 3.1 2-92 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.2 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.4 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 102.1 103.2 104.5 105.5 106.9 108.1 109.1 110.1 111.3 112.6 113.9 115.0 116.5 117.5 118.2 118.9 119.8 120.5 S e c o n d quarter 1992 d ata are a n v a n c a estinates. Data revised fro« 1989. P r e pared b y F ederal R e s e r v e Bank of St. Louis July 30, 1992 14 Final Sales in 1987 Dollars (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terminal Quarter Initial Quarter 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 4-87 1.0 1-88 3.6 6.3 2-88 4.0 5.5 4.6 3-88 3.4 4.3 3.2 1.9 4-88 3.6 4.2 3.5 3.0 4.1 1-89 3.2 3.7 3.0 2.5 2.8 1.5 2-89 3.1 3.4 2.9 2.4 2.6 1.8 2.2 3-89 2.9 3.2 2.7 2.3 2.4 1.8 2.0 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.7 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 4.3 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 B i l l i o n s of D o l l a r s A n nual R a t e s 1-92 4,565.6 4,636.2 4,688.7 4,710.9 4-89 2.7 2.9 2.4 2.0 2.0 1-90 2.8 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.4 4,758.7 4,776.3 4,8 0 2 . 0 1.8 4,823.0 4,831.8 4,883.3 2-90 2.5 2.6 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.6 -1.1 3-90 2.3 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.1 -0.5 0.1 4-90 2.0 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.6 -0.6 -0.4 4,8 7 0 . 0 4,871.4 -0.9 4,860.6 1-91 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -1.3 -1.3 -2.0 -3.2 2-91 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.8 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 1.3 3-91 1.5 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.7 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 0.4 -0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.6 -0.5 -0.7 -0.6 0.3 -0.3 0.0 4, 8 2 1 . 8 4,837.4 4,831.2 4-91 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.4 1-92 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.3 1.4 2.3 4.7 2-92 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.6 2.4 0.3 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 4,83 0 . 9 4,886.3 4,889.5 P r e p a r e d by Fed e r a l R e s e r v e Ban k of St. Lo u i s Jul y 30, 1992 Personal Consumption Expenditures in 1987 Dollars (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terminal Quarter 3 -87 4-87 -0.1 1-88 3.4 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 Initial Quarter Annual Ra t e s 3-89 4-89 1-90 B i l l i o n s of D o l l a r s 2-90 3-90 4-9 0 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 3,074.7 7.1 3,128.2 2-88 3.1 4.8 2.5 3-88 3.1 4.2 2.7 2.9 4-88 3.3 4.2 3.2 3.5 4.1 1-89 2.8 3.3 2.4 2.4 2.1 0.1 2-89 2.5 3.0 2.1 2.0 1.8 0.6 1.1 3-89 2.6 3.0 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.4 2.0 2.9 4-89 2.4 2.7 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.2 1.6 1.9 0.8 1-90 2.3 2.6 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.4 1.7 2.0 1.5 2.2 2-90 2.1 2.4 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.0 1.1 0.1 3-90 2.1 2.3 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.3 0.9 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.2 -0.5 -0.7 -3.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -1.1 -1.5 -3.1 -3.0 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.5 -0.6 -1.4 -0.5 2.0 -0.2 -0.7 0.1 1.7 1.5 3,147.8 3,170.6 3,202.9 3,203.6 4-90 1.7 1.8 1-91 1.3 1.5 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.5 3,212.2 3,2 3 5 . 3 3 ,242.0 3, 2 5 9 . 5 3,26 0 . 1 1.7 3 ,2 7 3 . 9 3,24 8 . 0 3,223.5 2-91 1.4 1.5 3-91 1.4 1.5 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.2 -0.2 4-91 1.3 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.6 0.0 1.1 0.6 -0.3 1-92 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 1.0 2.0 2.1 2.4 5.1 2-92 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 2.3 -0.3 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 3,239.3 3,251.2 3,2 4 9 . 0 3, 2 8 9 . 3 3,286.6 Second qua r t e r 1992 data are advance estimates. Data revised fro« 1989. P r e p a r e d by F e d e r a l R e s e r v e Bank of St. Louis Jul y 30, 1992 15 Residential Fixed Investment in 1987 Dollars (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terainal Q uarter Initial Quarter 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-87 -1.8 1-88 -3.8 -5.8 2-88 -1.4 -1.2 3.7 3-88 -0.4 0.1 3.2 2.7 4-88 0.4 0.9 3.2 3.0 3.3 1-89 -0.6 -0.4 1.0 0.1 -1.2 -5.4 2-89 -2.3 -2.4 -1.7 -3.0 -4.8 -8.6 -11.7 3-89 -3.0 -3.1 -2.7 -3.9 -5.5 -8.3 -9.7 -7.6 4 -89 -3.3 -3.5 -3.2 -4.2 -5.6 -7.7 -8.4 -6.8 -5.9 1-90 -2.5 -2.5 -2.1 -2.9 -3.9 -5.2 -5.2 -2.9 -0.5 2-90 -3.8 -4.0 -3.8 -4.7 -5.7 -7.1 -7.4 -6.3 -5.9 3-90 -5.5 -5.9 -5.9 -6.9 -8.0 -9.5 -10.2 -8.6 -9.7 -11.2 -12.0 -12.1 -13.0 -14.7 -20.4 -22.6 -22.4 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 Billi o n s of D ollars Annual Rates 1-92 223.3 220.0 222.0 223.5 225.3 222.2 215.4 211.2 208.0 5.3 210.7 -5.9 -15.9 201.8 -9.9 -10.5 -11.9 -19.5 -22.9 189.1 4-90 -6.9 -7.4 -7.5 1-91 -8.5 -9.0 -9.3 -10.4 -11.6 -13.1 -14.1 -14.4 -15.5 -17.3 -22.1 -24.1 -24.7 -26.9 177.5 2-91 -7.6 -8.0 -8.1 -9.1 -10.1 -11.3 -11.9 -12.0 -12.6 -13.7 -17.0 -17.3 -15.3 -11.6 3-91 -6.3 -6.6 -6.7 -7.5 -8.3 -9.2 -9.6 -9.4 -9.6 -10.1 -12.5 -11.8 -8.7 -3.7 10.6 14.4 4-91 -5.4 -5.6 -5.6 -6.2 -6.9 -7.7 -7.9 -7.5 -7.5 -7.7 -9.4 -8.3 -5.0 -0.1 10.9 12.9 11.3 1-92 -4.1 -4.3 -4.2 -4.7 -5.2 -5.8 -5.8 -5.3 -5.0 -4.9 -6.1 -4.7 -1.2 3.6 13.1 15.2 15.6 20.1 2-92 -3.5 -3.6 -3.5 -3.9 -4.3 -4.8 -4.8 -4.2 -3.9 -3.7 -4.6 -3.1 0.1 4.5 12.2 13.5 13.3 14.2 8.7 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 164.1 7.0 166.9 172.6 177.3 185.6 189.5 Prepa r e d by F ederal Res e r v e Bank of St. Louis July 30, 1992 Nonresidential Fixed Investment in 1987 Dollars (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Ter m i n a l Quarter 3 -87 4-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 Initial Qua r t e r Annual Rates 3-89 4-89 1-90 1.6 Billions of D ollars 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 510.6 517.7 1-88 3.6 5.7 2-88 6.0 8.3 11.0 3 -88 5.2 6.5 6.9 2.9 4 -88 4.7 5.5 5.5 2.8 531.4 535.2 2.7 538.8 539.5 1-89 4.0 4.5 4.2 2.0 1.6 0.5 2-89 3.7 4.1 3.8 2.0 1.7 1.3 2.0 3 -89 3.2 3.4 3.1 1.6 1.2 0.7 0.9 -0.3 4-89 2.4 2.5 2.1 0.7 0.2 -0.4 -0.7 -2.0 -3.7 1-90 2.8 2.9 2.6 1.4 1.2 0.9 1.0 0.6 1.1 6.2 2-90 1.9 1.9 1.5 0.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.6 -1.2 -1.5 -0.4 -6.6 3-90 2.2 2.3 1.9 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 1.5 -0.7 5.6 4-90 1.2 1.2 0.8 -0.2 -0.5 -0.9 -1.1 -1.6 -1.8 -1.4 -3.8 -2.3 1-91 -0.1 -0.2 -0.7 -1.7 -2.1 -2.7 -3.1 -3.8 -4.3 -4.5 -6.9 -7.1 - 12.8 -15.8 2-91 -0.3 -0.4 -0.9 -1.8 -2.2 -2.7 -3.1 -3.7 -4.2 -4.2 -6.2 -6.1 -9.7 -9.7 -3.1 3-91 -0.5 -0.6 -1.1 -1.9 -2.3 -2.8 -3.1 -3.6 -4.1 -4.1 -5.7 -5.6 -8.1 -7.6 -3.2 -3.4 4-91 -0.8 -0.9 -1.3 -2.2 -2.6 -3.0 -3.3 -3.8 -4.2 -4.2 -5.6 -5.5 -7.6 -7.0 -3.9 -4.3 -5.2 1-92 -0.6 -0.7 -1.1 -1.8 -2.2 -2.5 -2.8 -3.2 -3.5 -3.5 -4.6 -4.3 -5.9 -5.1 -2.2 -1.9 -1.2 3.0 2-92 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.9 -1.2 -1.5 -1.6 -1.9 -2.1 -1.9 -2.7 -2.3 -3.3 -2.2 0.7 1.7 3.5 8.1 13.5 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4 -89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 542.2 541.8 536.7 544.8 535.6 542.9 529 . 3 -9.6 507.0 503.0 4 98.7 492.1 4 95.8 5 11.7 S e c o n d quarter 1992 d a t a are adva n c e estimates. Data revised fro« 1989. Pr e pared by F e d e r a l R eserve Bank of St. Louis July 30, 1992 16 Exports in 1987 Dollars (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terminal Quarter Initial Quarter 3-87 4-87 16.7 1-88 20.1 4-8 7 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3 -89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 Billions of Doll a r s Annual Rates 1-92 386.1 23.6 407.1 2-88 16.7 16.8 10.3 3-88 14.2 13.3 8.5 6.8 4-88 14.1 13.5 10.3 10.3 14.0 1-89 14.4 13.9 11.6 12.1 14.9 15.7 2-89 14.7 14.3 12.6 13.1 15.3 16.0 16.3 4 17.2 424.1 4 38.2 4 54.5 4 72.0 3-89 12.8 12.3 10.5 10.5 11.5 10.7 8.3 0.8 4-89 12.9 12.4 10.9 11.0 11.8 11.3 9.9 6.8 13.1 1-90 12.6 12.2 10.8 10.9 11.6 11.2 10.1 8.0 11.9 10.7 2-90 12.1 11.7 10.4 10.4 11.0 10.5 9.4 7.8 10.2 8.8 7.0 3-90 11.0 10.5 9.3 9.2 9.5 8.9 7.8 6.1 7.5 5.7 3.3 -0.2 4-90 11.1 10.6 9.5 9.4 9.7 9.2 8.3 7.0 8.3 7.2 6.0 5.5 11.6 1-91 9.8 9.3 8.2 8.0 8.2 7.5 6.5 5.2 6.0 4.6 3.1 1.9 3.0 -5.0 2-91 10.3 9.8 8.8 8.7 8.9 8.4 7.6 6.6 7.4 6.5 5.7 5.4 7.3 5.2 16.6 3-91 10.0 9.6 8.6 8.5 8.7 8.2 7.5 6.5 7.3 6.5 5.8 5.5 7.0 5.5 11.3 4-91 10.2 9.8 8.9 8.9 9.0 8.6 8.0 7.2 7.9 7.3 6.8 6.8 8.3 7.4 11.9 9.7 13.3 1-92 9.8 9.4 8.6 8.4 8.6 8.2 7.5 6.8 7.4 6.8 6.3 6.2 7.3 6.5 9.6 7.4 7.9 2.9 2-92 9.0 8.6 7.8 7.6 7.7 7.3 6.6 5.9 6.3 5.7 5.1 4.9 5.7 4.7 6.8 4.5 3.9 -0.5 -3.8 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 4 72.9 487.7 500.2 508.7 508.4 5 22.6 515.9 536.1 544.2 6.2 561.4 565.4 560.0 P r e p a r e d by F ederal R e s e r v e Bank of St. Louis Jul y 30, 1992 Imports in 1987 Dollars (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terninal Q uarter 3-87 4 -87 4-87 8.7 1-88 3.6 -1.2 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 Initial Quarter Annu a l Rates 3-89 4-89 1-90 B i l lions of Dol l a r s 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 522.1 5 20.5 2-88 1.0 -2.6 -4.0 3-88 2.9 1.0 2.2 8.7 4-88 4.6 3.6 5.3 10.2 11.7 1-89 3.0 1.9 2.7 5.0 3.1 -4.8 2-89 3.4 2.5 3.3 5.2 4.0 0.4 5.8 3-89 3.8 3.1 3.8 5.4 4.6 2.4 6.2 6.5 4-89 3.7 3.1 3.7 5.1 4.4 2.6 5.2 4.9 3.3 1-90 3.6 3.0 3.6 4.7 4.1 2.6 4.5 4.1 3.0 2.6 2-90 3.7 3.3 3.8 4.8 4.2 3.0 4.7 4.4 3.7 3.9 5.1 3-90 3.5 3.1 3.5 4.4 3.9 2.8 4.1 3.8 3.1 3.1 3.3 1.5 4-90 2.6 2.1 2.4 3.0 2.4 1.3 2.2 1.6 0.7 0.1 -0.8 -3.6 1-91 1.2 0.7 0.8 1.3 0.6 -0.6 0.0 -0.9 -2.0 -3.1 -4.4 -7.4 -11.6 -14.6 2-91 2.1 1.7 1.9 2.4 1.9 0.9 1.6 1.1 0.3 -0.2 -0.7 -2.1 -3.3 515.2 526.1 540.9 53 4 . 3 541.9 550.5 555.0 558.6 565.6 567.7 -8.5 555.3 533.8 -0.6 15.6 55 3 . 5 3-91 3.0 2.6 2.9 3.5 3.1 2.3 3.0 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.4 1.4 5.0 16.4 17.1 4-91 3.1 2.7 3.0 3.5 3.1 2.5 3.1 2.9 2.5 2.4 2.4 1.9 2.0 4.8 12.2 10.5 4.2 1-92 3.1 2.8 3.0 3.5 3.2 2.5 3.2 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.1 2.2 4.5 9.9 8.1 3.9 3.5 2-92 3.3 3.0 3.2 3.7 3.4 2.8 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.8 4.8 9.2 7.7 4.7 4.9 6.3 3-8 7 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 5 75.8 581.8 586.8 595.9 S e cond q uarter 1992 d ata are advance estimates. Data revised fron 1989. P r e p a r e d by Fede r a l R eserve Bank of St. Louis July 30, 1992 Government Purchases of Goods and Services in 1987 Dollars (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Initial Quarter Terminal Quarter 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 4-87 3.7 1-88 -0.3 -4.1 2-88 0.1 -1.7 0.9 3-88 -0.1 -1.4 0.0 -0.9 4-88 0.9 0.2 1.6 2.0 5.0 1-89 0.4 -0.2 0.8 0.8 1.6 -1.6 2-89 1.1 0.7 1.7 1.9 2.8 1.8 5.3 3-8 9 1.5 1.2 2.1 2.4 3.2 2.6 4.9 4.5 4-89 1.4 1.1 1.9 2.0 2.6 2.0 3.3 2.3 0.2 1-90 1.9 1.7 2.4 2.6 3.2 2.9 4.0 3.6 3.2 6.4 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 B i l lions of Dollars Annual Rates 1-92 893.0 883.7 885.6 883.7 894.5 890.8 902.3 912.2 912.6 926.8 2-90 1.8 1.6 2.3 2.4 2.9 2.6 3.5 3.0 2.5 3.7 1.1 3-90 1.5 1.3 1.8 1.9 2.3 1.9 2.5 2.0 1.4 1.8 -0.4 -2.0 4-90 1.8 1.7 2.2 2.3 2.7 2.4 3.0 2.7 2.3 2.8 1.7 2.0 6.1 1-91 1.9 1.8 2.3 2.4 2.7 2.5 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.8 2.0 2.3 4.4 2.8 2-91 1.8 1.6 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.2 2.7 2.4 2.1 2.4 1.6 1.7 3.0 1.5 0.2 3-91 1.5 1.4 1.8 1.9 2.1 1.8 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.0 0.9 1.7 0.2 -1.0 4-91 1.3 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.0 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.7 -0.6 -1.7 -2.6 -3.0 1-92 1.3 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.9 -0.1 -0.9 -1.2 -0.7 1.7 2-92 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.8 -0.1 -0.6 -0.8 -0.4 1,0 0.3 3-87 4 -87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 929.4 924.8 938.5 945.1 945.6 -2.3 940.2 933.1 937.0 937.6 S e c o n d q u a r t e r 1992 d ata are adv a n c e e s t i m a t e s . Data revised fro« 1989. P r e p a r e d by Federal R eserve Ban k of St. Louis July 30, 1992 Corporate Profits (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terminal Q uarter Initial Quarter 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 Bi l l i o n s of Dollars Annual Rates 4-91 3-87 31.6 4-87 18.3 6.4 338.0 1-88 15.7 8.5 10.7 2-88 15.4 10.5 12.5 14.5 3-88 12.4 8.1 8.6 7.6 1.2 4 -88 12.8 9.4 10.2 10.0 7.9 15.0 1-89 9.4 6.1 6.0 4.9 1.9 2.3 -9.1 2-89 8.3 5.3 5.1 4.0 1.6 1.7 -4.4 3 -89 5.7 2.8 2.3 1.0 -1.5 -2.2 -7.3 4 -89 4.8 2.1 1.6 0.4 -1.8 -2.4 -6.3 -5.3 -8.2 -3.1 1-90 5.7 3.4 3.1 2.2 0.5 0.4 -2.3 -0.5 -0.8 5.8 15.6 2-90 6.8 4.7 4.6 3.9 2.7 2.9 1.0 3.1 3.8 10.1 17.3 19.1 384.0 3-90 3.4 1.3 0.9 -0.1 -1.6 -1.9 -4.1 -3.3 -4.0 -1.7 -1.2 -8.6 -29.9 351.4 4-90 2.5 0.5 0.1 -0.8 -2.3 -2.6 -4.6 -4.0 -4.7 -3.0 -3.0 -8.5 -19.7 -8.2 1-91 2.8 1.0 0,6 -0.2 -1.5 -1.7 -3.4 -2.7 -3.2 -1.4 -1.1 -4.9 -11.8 -1.0 6.7 2-91 2.4 0.7 0.3 -0.4 -1.6 -1.8 -3.4 -2.7 -3.1 -1.6 -1.4 -4.4 -1.6 1.9 -2.6 3-91 1.9 0.2 -0.2 -0.9 -2.0 -2.2 -3.7 -3.1 -3.5 -2.3 -2.2 -4.8 -9.0 -2.9 -1.1 -4.7 -6.8 4-91 2.1 0.6 0.3 -0.4 -1.4 -1.6 -2.8 -2.2 -2.5 -1.3 -1.0 -3.2 -6.5 -1.0 0.9 -1.0 -0.1 7.1 1-92 4.2 2.9 2.7 2.2 1.4 1.4 0.5 1.3 1.4 2.9 3.6 2.2 0.0 6.1 9.2 9.8 14.3 26.7 49.8 2-87 3-87 4 -87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3 -8 9 4 -8 9 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 343.3 352.1 364.2 3 65.3 3 78.3 369.4 369.9 0.5 3 57.3 -6.4 -12.9 354.5 367.6 -9.6 344.0 349.6 347.3 341.2 347.1 384.0 C o r p o r a t e p rofits with capital c o n suaption and inventory v aluation adjustments. Data r evised fron 1989. P r e pared bv Federal R eserve Bank of St. Louis July 30, 1992 18 Gross Saving as a P e r c e n t o f GDP Seasonally Adjusted Percent Percent 20 18 16 14 12 10 Total saving equals private saving (personal saving plus business saving) plus government surplus or deficit. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Gross Private Saving (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terminal Q uarter 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 3-87 22.2 4-87 32.5 43.6 1-88 24.1 25.0 8.8 2-88 17.1 15.4 3.4 -1.7 3-88 13.4 11.3 2.3 -0.8 0.0 4-88 12.7 10.9 4.0 2.4 4.5 9.2 1-89 11.7 10.1 4.4 3.3 5.0 7.6 6.0 2-89 9.1 7.4 2.3 11 1.8 2.3 -0.9 -7.4 3-89 8.1 6.4 2.0 0.9 1.4 1.8 -0.6 -3.7 Initial Quarter Annua l Ra t e s 2-89 3-89 4-8 9 B i l l i o n s of D o l l a r s 1-90 2-90 3 -90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 71 5 . 9 783.7 800.4 797.0 797.0 81 4 . 8 82 6 . 7 8 11.0 0.1 81 1 . 2 4-89 8.2 6.7 2.8 2.0 2.6 3.2 1.7 0.3 4.4 8.9 1-90 8.7 7.5 4.0 3.5 4.2 4.9 4.1 3.7 7.6 11.6 82 8 . 6 14.4 85 6 . 9 2-90 8.9 7.8 4.7 4.3 5.0 5.8 5.2 5.1 8.4 11.4 12.7 11.0 3-90 5.9 4.7 1.7 1.0 1.3 1.5 0.4 -0.5 1.0 1.2 -1.2 -8.2 -24.1 4-90 6.9 5.8 3.1 2.6 3.1 3.4 2.7 2.2 3.9 4.7 3.7 0.4 -4.5 20.1 1-91 7.4 6.4 4.0 3.6 4.1 4.5 4.0 3.7 5.4 6.3 5.8 3.8 1.5 17.4 14.8 2-91 7.1 6.2 3.9 3.6 4.0 4.4 3.9 3.7 5.2 5.9 5.4 3.7 2.0 12.5 8.9 3.4 3-91 6.4 5.4 3.3 2.9 3.3 3.5 3.0 2.8 4.0 4.4 3.8 2.2 0.5 7.8 4.0 -1.0 -5.2 4-91 7.3 6.5 4.5 4.2 4.7 5.0 4.7 4.6 5.8 6.5 6.2 5.1 4.1 11.0 8.8 6.9 8.6 24.5 1-92 7.3 6.5 4.6 4.4 4.8 5.1 4.8 4.7 5.9 6.5 6.3 5.3 4.5 10.2 8.4 6.8 8.0 15.3 6.7 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 87 9 . 5 82 0 . 9 85 9 . 3 88 9 . 4 89 6 . 9 884.9 934.8 950.1 Fi r s t qua r t e r 1992 d ata are final estiaates. Data revised fro* 1989. P r e p a r e d by F e d e r a l R eserve B a n k of St. Louis J u l y 30, 1992 19 B u s in e s s P ro d u ctiv ity and C o m p en sa tio n Percent Change From Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted Percent Percent Hou rly Compensat on \ \ ____ \ . — .... . i—% V / < \ _ £ T 1 1 ' / ** _ L _. / % % r V / \ ^ \ 1 1986 1 1 * 1987 — ----------- - ✓ \ / \ r Output Per Ho / \ 1 ' * 1988 I ' r 1989 1... r.....1 ' ..I ....' 1990 1991 — ■' I ' 1 1992 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Business Sector Output per Hour (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terminal Qua r t e r Initial Q uarter 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1982 = 100 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-87 2.6 4-87 2.0 1-88 1.7 1.3 1.1 2-88 0.8 0.2 -0.4 -1.8 3-8 8 1.0 0.5 0.2 -0.2 4-88 0.8 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.7 0.0 1-89 0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.2 -1.1 -2.2 2-89 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.4 -1.0 -1.4 -0.7 3-89 0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -0.7 -0.5 -1.0 -1.3 -0.9 -1.1 4-89 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.7 -0.5 -0.9 -1.1 -0.7 -0.7 -0.4 1-90 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.4 -0.2 0.2 0.7 2-90 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.8 3.0 3-90 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.1 -0.7 4 -90 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 "0.7 -0.7 1-91 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 -0.5 -0.4 0.0 2-91 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.2 3-91 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.8 1.3 2.0 1.8 3-91 4-91 109.9 1.5 110.3 110.6 110.1 1.5 110.5 110.5 109.9 109.7 109.4 109.3 109.5 110.3 110.1 109.9 109.9 110.5 111.0 4-91 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.5 1.9 1.8 1.8 1-92 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.5 2-87 3-87 4-8 7 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 111.5 112.2 Pr e p a r e d by F ederal R e s e r v e Bank of St. Louis Jun e 16, 1992 20 Net Federal Debt (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terainal Q uarter Initial Quarter 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-87 5.4 4-87 7.2 8.9 1-88 2-88 7.9 9.2 9.4 7.6 8.4 3-88 7.8 8.4 4-88 7.2 7.6 8.1 6.8 8.2 7.6 7.3 6.6 6.4 4.6 1-89 7.2 7.5 7.3 6.7 6.7 5.9 7.2 2-89 7.1 7.3 7.0 6.6 6.5 5.9 6.5 3-89 7.1 7.3 7.1 6.7 6.7 6.3 6.8 6.6 7.4 4-89 7.2 7.4 7.2 6.9 6.9 6.7 7.2 7.9 1-90 7.9 8.2 8.1 7.9 2-90 8.2 8.5 8.4 8.1 8.0 8.6 8.6 3-90 8.5 8.8 8.8 4-90 8.8 9.1 9.1 9.1 1-91 8.9 9.1 9.1 9.1 2-91 9.1 9.3 9.4 9.4 3-91 9.5 9.7 9.8 9.8 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 B i l l io n s of Dol l a r s 1,903.1 1,944.1 8.5 1,988.4 8.7 4-91 9.5 9.7 9.8 9.8 1-92 9.6 9.8 9.8 9.9 2-87 3-87 4-87 2,021.6 2,062.4 8.3 2,085.7 2,122.1 5.9 7.2 2,152.7 2 ,191.4 2,235.7 8.3 10.2 11.6 15.0 9.3 9.7 10.7 11 .8 13.5 12.0 9.0 9.6 10.0 10.9 11.8 12.9 11.9 8.9 10.0 10.5 11.2 12.0 13.0 12.3 9.4 9.3 10.0 10.3 10.9 11.6 12.2 11.5 9.4 9.3 9.7 10.2 10.5 11.1 11.7 12.3 11.7 9.6 10.0 10.2 10.7 11.1 11.6 12.2 12.8 12.4 10.0 10.1 10.6 10.9 11.4 11.9 12.3 11.9 10.1 10.2 10.6 10.9 11.4 11.8 12.2 11.9 1-88 2-88 3-88 8.7 4-88 9.1 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2,315.4 2,382.2 2,449.1 11.7 12.4 13.1 2 ,525.8 11.3 2,582.0 11.8 11.1 9 .2 11.6 10.8 12.5 12.6 12.5 14.1 15.8 12.0 11.7 12.5 12.5 11.9 11.6 12.2 12.1 10.3 11.3 2-90 3-90 3-91 4-91 11.6 12.4 11.9 4-90 1-91 2-91 2,658.9 2 ,758.3 9.4 2 ,820.8 2,897.3 P r e p a r e d by Fede r a l R e s e r v e Bank of St. Louis J u l y 20, 1992 FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT (billions of dollars) Seasonally Adjusted End of Month Totals Gross federal debt Federal debt held by agencies and trusts Net federal debt Federal debt held by Federal Reserve Banks Federal debt held by private investors Federal debt held by foreign investors March June September December 2487.5 2548.8 2614.3 2672.8 498.9 528.3 552.1 584.8 1988.4 2021.6 2062.4 2085.7 220.8 227.1 232.7 231.6 1765.2 1796.9 1830.8 1853.8 330.9 343.5 348.6 362.7 March June September December 2738.1 2801.9 2870.1 2942.1 617.3 650.3 678.7 702.9 2122.1 2152.7 2191.4 2235.7 232.5 231.2 224.4 221.1 1887.1 1921.0 1967.8 2011.0 374.8 367.7 398.8 391.7 March June September December 3046.9 3146.8 3247.7 3353.0 734.0 766.2 798.4 822.3 2315.4 2382.2 2449.1 2525.8 223.5 230.7 236.8 250.9 2096.6 2156.0 2217.6 2282.6 383.3 390.0 407.8 418.9 1991 March June September December 3458.3 3542.0 3681.5 3788.4 880.3 884.9 922.9 961.4 2582.0 2658.9 2758.3 2820.8 252.3 254.4 269.8 271.7 2339.8 2414.6 2500.6 2556.6 425.4 436.2 443.8 449.8 March 3873.6 978.4 2897.3 273.1 2640.2 466.6 Columns may not add because each component is seasonally adjusted separately. Gross federal debt equals debt held by agencies and trusts plus net federal debt. Net federal debt equals debt held by Federal Reserve banks plus debt held by private investors (which includes debt held by foreign investors). Sources: Original data may be found in the Treasury Bulletin and also in the Federal Reserve Bulletin; seasonally adjusted series prepared by this Bank. 21 FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGETS (billions of dollars, quarterly totals seasonally adjusted at annual rates) Quarters Receipts__________ Cyclically National adjusted income accounts budget budget ________ Expenditures________ Surplus or d e fic it(-) National National Cyclically income accounts adjusted income accounts budget budget budget Cyclically adjusted budget 1985 1 2 3 4 797.8 758.6 794.3 803.6 819.3 780.7 811.8 822.0 947.7 964.9 976.3 990.8 953.0 964.4 991.3 1012.6 -1 4 9 .9 -2 0 6 .3 -1 8 2 .0 -1 8 7 .2 -1 3 3 .7 -1 8 3 .7 -1 7 9 .5 -1 9 0 .6 1986 1 2 3 4 809.4 814.2 828.2 856.8 816.4 832.2 852.1 875.5 992.7 1038.0 1047.9 1034.3 1001.4 1045.2 1032.4 1038.7 -1 8 3 .3 -2 2 3 .8 -2 1 9 .7 -1 7 7 .5 -1 8 5 .0 -2 1 3 .0 -1 8 0 .3 -1 6 3 .2 1987 1 2 3 4 858.4 928.6 924.5 943.5 875.1 938.1 927.2 930.0 1048.1 1058.9 1059.0 1096.3 1057.4 1060.4 1065.6 1103.0 -1 8 9 .7 -1 3 0 .3 -1 3 4 .5 -1 5 2 .7 -1 8 2 .3 -1 2 2 .3 -1 3 8 .4 -1 7 3 .0 1988 1 2 3 4 940.5 970.4 977.8 1000.6 924.9 949.5 953.0 971.4 1098.0 1105.0 1097.3 1135.5 1098.0 1111.4 1098.2 1156.1 -1 5 7 .5 -1 3 4 .6 -1 1 9 .5 -1 3 4 .9 -173.1 -1 6 1 .9 -1 4 5 .2 -1 8 4 .7 1989 1 2 3 4 1050.9 1064.5 1053.6 1068.3 1014.3 1032.2 1020.2 1035.4 1160.8 1174.2 1181.5 1209.8 1181.0 1187.3 1182.0 1208.2 -1 1 0 .0 -1 0 9 .7 -1 2 8 .0 -1 4 1 .5 -1 6 6 .7 -155.1 -1 6 1 .8 -1 7 2 .8 1990 1 2 3 4 1086.7 1109.6 1119.9 1113.3 1061.7 1093.4 1116.0 1132.1 1254.5 1266.5 1265.5 1307.9 1252.2 1275.4 1273.6 1311.2 -1 6 7 .8 -1 5 6 .9 -1 4 5 .6 -1 9 4 .6 -1 9 0 .5 -1 8 2 .0 -1 5 7 .6 -179.1 1991 1 2 3 4 1114.6 1117.3 1127.7 1129.4 1160.1 1173.7 N.A. N.A. 1264.4 1329.4 1348.7 1388.1 1257.9 1319.3 N.A. N.A. -1 4 9 .9 -2 1 2 .2 -2 2 1 .0 -2 5 8 .7 - 97.8 -1 4 5 .6 N.A. N.A. 1992 1 1143.3 N.A. 1446.2 N.A. -2 8 9 .2 N.A. N.A. — Not Available Fiscal years Estimates Actual 1984 1985 1986 1987 1989 1988 1990 1991 1992 1993 Total budget Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit ( - ) $ 666.5 851.8 $ - 1 8 5 .3 $ 734.1 946.3 $ - 2 1 2 .3 $ 769.1 $ 854.1 $ 909.0 1003.8 1064.1 990.3 $ - 2 2 1 .2 $ - 1 4 9 .7 $ - 1 5 5 .1 $ 990.7 $ 1031.3 $ 1054.3 1144.1 1251.8 1323.8 $ - 1 5 3 .4 $ - 2 2 0 .5 $ - 2 6 9 .5 $ 1073.6 $ 1162.9 1407.1 1503.9 $ - 3 3 3 .5 $ - 3 4 1 .0 Calendar years National income accounts budget Receipts Expenditures Surplus or deficit(-) $ 725.8 $ 892.7 788.6 $ 827.2 $ 913.8 $ 972.3 1028.2 969.9 1065.6 1109.0 $ -1 6 6 .9 $ - 1 8 1 .4 $ -2 0 1 .0 $ - 1 5 1 .8 $ - 1 3 6 .6 $ 1059.3 $ 1107.4 $ 1122.2 1332.7 1181.6 1273.6 $ - 1 2 2 .3 $ - 1 6 6 .2 $ - 2 1 0 .4 Cyclically adjusted budget Receipts Expenditures Surplus or deficit(-) $ 754.5 890.3 $ 808.5 $ 844.1 $ 917.6 $ 949.7 1029.4 1071.6 1115.9 980.3 $ 1025.5 $ 1100.8 1189.6 1278.1 $ - 1 3 5 .8 $ - 1 7 1 .9 $ - 1 8 5 .4 $ - 1 5 4 .0 $ - 1 6 6 .2 $ - 1 6 4 .1 $ - 1 7 7 .3 Fiscal years refer to the budget year which runs from October 1 through September 30. Total budget outlays include federal entities that are off-budget. Estimates from Office of Management and Budget’s Mid-Session Review of the FY1992 Budget (July 24, 1992). National income accounts data reflect seasonal revisions. Cyclically adjusted budget data are in process of revision. Source: Office of Management and Budget and U.S. Department of Commerce. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 22 G o v ern m en t D e f ic it ( - ) /S u r p lu s ( + ) Seasonally Adjusted Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars -10 -10 -110 -110 -1 6 0 -1 6 0 -210 -2 1 0 -2 6 0 -2 6 0 -3 1 0 -3 1 0 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 National income accounts basis Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Federal Defense Expenditures (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terninal Q uarter 3-87 4-87 -1.5 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 Initial Quarter Annual Rates 3-89 4-89 1-90 B i l l i o n s of Dol l a r s 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 295.8 1-88 -0.1 1.2 2-88 -0.9 -0.7 -2.5 3-88 -1.0 -0.8 -1.8 296.7 294.8 294.0 -1.1 4-88 0.0 0.3 0.0 1.4 3.9 1-89 -0.8 -0.6 -1.1 -0.6 -0.3 296.8 2-89 0.2 0.5 0.4 1.2 1.9 0.9 6.6 3-89 1.4 1.8 1.9 2.8 3.8 3.8 8.2 -4.4 293.5 2 98.2 9.9 3 05.3 4-89 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.7 2.3 1.9 4.1 2.9 -3.6 1-90 2.0 2.3 2.5 3.2 4.0 4.0 6.2 6.0 4.2 12.6 3 02.5 311 . 6 2-90 1.9 2.3 2.4 3.0 3.6 3.6 5.3 4.9 3.3 7.0 1.7 3-90 1.3 1.5 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.2 3.4 2.7 1.0 2.6 -2.0 3 12.9 -5.6 308 . 4 4-90 2.6 3.0 3.2 3.7 4.3 4.4 5.7 5.5 4.7 6.8 5.0 6.7 20.6 1-91 3.3 3.7 3.9 4.5 5.0 5.2 6.4 6.4 5.8 7.8 6.7 8.4 16.2 11.9 2-91 2.5 2.8 2.9 3.4 3.8 3.8 4.8 4.5 3.8 5.1 3.7 4.2 7.6 1.7 3-91 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.0 3.8 3.5 2.7 3.6 2.2 2.3 4.4 -0.5 -6.2 -4.8 4-91 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.6 2.2 1.4 2.0 0.6 0.4 1.6 -2.6 -7.0 -6.8 -8.7 1-92 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.7 2.2 1.8 1.1 1.6 0.3 0.1 1.1 -2.4 -5.7 -5.0 -5.1 -1.4 2-92 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.5 2.0 1.6 0.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 -2.1 -4.6 -3.9 -3.6 -1.0 -0.5 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-1 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 323 . 2 332 . 4 -7.6 325.9 321.9 314.7 313 . 6 313 . 2 Data revised fro« 1989. P r e p a r e d by F e d e r a l Reserve B a n k o f St. Lo u i s J u l y 30, 1992 23 Federal Nondefense Expenditures (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terminal Qua r t e r Initial Quarter 3 - 87 4-8 7 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 4-87 21.7 1-88 10.6 0.4 2-88 8.5 2.4 4.5 3-88 5.4 0.5 0.5 4 -88 8.0 4.8 6.3 7.2 18.8 1-89 9.0 6.6 8.2 9.5 16.6 14.4 2-89 8 .3 6.2 7.4 8.1 12.2 9.1 4.1 3 -89 7.2 5.3 6.1 6.5 9.1 6.0 2.1 0.1 4 -89 8.1 6.5 7.4 7.8 10.2 8.2 6.2 7.3 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 Billions of Dollars Annual Rates 1-92 800.5 801.3 810.2 8 03.3 -3.4 8 38.7 8 67.3 876.0 876.2 9 07.3 15.0 1-90 8.9 7.5 8.5 9.1 11.3 9.8 8.7 10.3 15.8 16.6 2-90 8.5 7.3 8.0 8.5 10.3 8.9 7.9 8.9 11.9 10.5 4.6 9 42.9 3-90 7.9 6.7 7.4 7.7 9.2 7.8 6.8 7.3 9.2 7.4 3.0 1.5 4-90 8.2 7.1 7.8 8.1 9.5 8.4 7.5 8.1 9.8 8.5 6.0 6.6 1-91 5.9 4.8 5.2 5.2 6.1 4.8 3.7 3.6 4.2 2.2 -1.2 -3.0 2-91 7.6 6.7 7.2 7.4 8.4 7.4 6.7 7.0 8.1 6.9 5.1 5.2 3-91 7.7 6.9 7.3 7.6 8.5 7.6 7.0 7.3 8.3 7.3 5.8 6.1 7.3 5.7 21.4 9.6 4-91 8.4 7.6 8.1 8.4 9.3 8.6 8.1 8.5 9.4 8.8 7.7 8.2 9.6 9.0 20.7 14.4 19.4 1-92 8.9 8.2 8.7 9.0 9.9 9.3 8.9 9.3 10.3 9.8 8.9 9.6 11.0 10.8 20.1 15.6 18.7 18.1 2-92 8.7 8.0 8.5 8.7 9.6 9.0 8.6 9.0 9.8 9.3 8.5 9.0 10.1 9.8 16.9 12.9 14.0 11.4 5.1 3-87 4 -87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 9 53.6 957.1 984.7 12.0 932.0 -5.2 -19.7 6.5 3.9 1,003.5 34.4 1,026.8 1,073.4 1,118.9 1,133.0 D a t a revi sed f ro» 1989. Pr e pared by Federal R eserve Bank of St. Louis July 30, 1992 24
@FedFRASER