Full text of National Economic Trends : August 1991
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N a t io n a l E c o n o m ic T r e n d s A u g u s t 1991 T h e la te s t c o n s e n s u s th a t th e r e c o v e r y fr o m ex p ect re a l G N P s h o w s , in is th a t th e r e c e s s io n is o v e r, h a v in g to a c c e le r a t e b y le s s t h a n h a l f its a v e r a g e a n a v e r a g e r e c e s s io n , a s lo w in g in m o n e y s m a ll and real G N P a c c e le r a t io n T h e in th e r e c e n t r e c e s s io n in th e y e a r in fa c t, b e fo re h o w e ve r, w h en it f e ll f r o m fro m 8 p e r c e n t in is a ls o M l th e s p e n d in g to in th e secon d q u a rte r o f th e to l) th e p r e v io u s g ro w th g ro w th . In T h u s , a r e la tiv e ly r e c e s s io n s and c o n s is te n t w it h 1987-88 its in seven is a s s o c ia t e d 1991. T h e to r e c e s s io n in th e w o u ld y e a r p r e c e d in g because M l g ro w th A T h e B lu e because it is C h ip it , d id sh a rp r e c e s s io n s . w ith A s a s lo w in g R a te s in n o m in a l s p e n d in g G N P fo re c a s t o f a n a s s o c ia te d w ith rea l G N P n o t s lo w a g re w fro m in M l g ro w th u n u s u a lly m o re s lo w ly its p r e v io u s g ro w th M o f M l , G N P a n d R e a l G N P a n n u a l year fo r Se ve n l* P r e v io u s G N P R e a l 2 .3 - 2 . 5 Subsequent year 6.6 1 0 .9 5.7 T h e on is C h ip m e a su re d F in a n c ia l f o r m a t o f th is th e fe d e ra l it h a d s te a d ily r is e in rea l G N P g ro w th s m a ll a c c e le r a t io n s in S u r r o u n d in g R e c e s s io n s ra te s ) fo r p e r io d s r e le a s e h a s b e e n budget V ie w s and one F o r e c a s t, Ju n e th e changed fe d e ra l q u a rte r and d e b t, Ju ly , and M l* G N P 4 . 0 % 5 .3 % 1 .0 % 4.4 2.6 - 1 . 3 5 6 6 ** R e a l 1** G N P 2 5** e a r lie r . 1990. s e v e r a l s e r ie s h a v e b e e n w h ic h R e c e s s io n (III/ 1 9 9 0 — 11/1991) 3 .0 % 8 .6 % 2.4 g ro w th th a n p e rc e n t ra te ; s u b s e q u e n t ly d e c lin e d fo r e c a s t o f u n u s u a lly G N P 4 . 9 % B lu e 4 e a r lie r , R e c e s s io n s R e c e s s io n F ro m a r e la tiv e ly o ccu rre d w eak had T h is A v e ra g e M o n e y a ls o g ro w th . P e r io d ** a ls o th e ta b le b e lo w b e e x p e c t e d to r e s u lt fr o m s lo w in g - 0 .4 p e r c e n t o v e r t h e n e x t y e a r ; (c o m p o u n d e d * is a t y p ic a l r e c o v e r y , m o n e y g r o w t h a c c e le r a te s , le a d in g w e a k e x p a n s io n th e t y p ic a l c a s e . pace. t y p ic a l e x p e r ie n c e G r o w th P r e v io u s consensus s h o w s , th e B lu e C h ip fo re c a s te rs g ro w th . be unusual because, is p e r c e n t in 1987-88 l p r e v io u s r e c e s s io n c o n s is te n t w it h and g ro w th . o f M a p p e a rs seven th is 7 .4 pace r is e s to c k ( M ( G N P ) g r o w t h , w h ic h , in t u r n , r e s u lt s in s lo w e r r e a l G N P to fa s t e r s p e n d in g ended th is r e c e s s io n w i l l b e r e l a t i v e l y w e a k . F o r e x a m p le , a s th e t a b le b e lo w p r e v io u s ly w e re added. p u b lis h e d in T h is r e le a s e M o n e ta ry now in c lu d e s d a ta T re n d s. — Jo h n e x p r e s s e d d o n o t n e c e s s a r ily r e f le c t o ffic ia l p o s itio n s o f t h e F e d e r a l R e s e r v e S y s te m . A . T a to m Consumer Price Index — All Urban Consumers Percent Change From Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted Percent Percent 8 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Consumer Price Index (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) T e r m in a l In itia l 1 9 8 2 -6 4 = 1 0 0 M o n th M o n th 1 1 -8 9 1 2 -8 9 1 -9 0 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 5 -9 0 6 -9 0 7 -9 0 8 -9 0 9 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0 1 -9 1 2 -9 1 3 -9 1 4 -9 1 5 -9 1 1 2 6 .4 1 2 -8 9 4 .9 1 -9 0 8 .4 1 2 .0 2 -9 0 7 .5 8 .9 5 .8 3 -9 0 6 .8 7 .5 5 .3 4 .8 4 -9 0 6 .0 6 .3 4 .5 3 .8 1 2 7 .6 1 2 8 .2 1 2 8 .7 1 2 9 .0 2 .8 1 2 9 .2 5 -9 0 5 .3 5 .4 3 .8 3 .2 2 .4 1 .9 6 -9 0 5 .6 5 .8 4 .6 4 .3 4 .1 4 .7 7 .7 7 -9 0 5 .5 5 .6 4 .6 4 .4 4 .3 4 .7 6 .2 4 .7 8 -9 0 6 .1 6 .2 5 .4 5 .4 5 .5 6 .2 7 .6 7 .6 1 0 .6 9 -9 0 6 .4 6 .6 5 .9 6 .0 6 .2 6 .8 8 .1 8 .2 1 0 .1 9 .5 1 0 -9 0 6 .5 6 .7 6 .1 6 .1 6 .3 6 .9 8 .0 8 .1 9 .2 8 .5 1 1 -9 0 6 .3 6 .4 5 .9 5 .9 6 .0 6 .5 7 .2 7 .2 7 .8 6 .9 5 .6 3 .7 1 2 -9 0 6 .1 6 .2 5 .7 5 .6 5 .7 6 .1 6 .7 6 .6 6 .9 6 .0 4 .9 3 .7 3 .6 1 -9 1 6 .0 6 .1 5 .6 5 .6 5 .7 6 .0 6 .6 6 .4 6 .7 5 .9 5 .1 4 .3 4 .6 5 .5 2 -9 1 5 .8 5 .9 5 .4 5 .4 5 .4 5 .7 6 .1 5 .9 6 .1 5 .4 4 .6 3 .9 3 .9 4 .1 2 .7 3 -9 1 5 .4 5 .4 5 .0 4 .9 4 .9 5 .1 5 .4 5 .2 5 .2 4 .5 3 .7 2 .9 2 .7 2 .4 0 .9 -0 .9 1 3 0 .0 1 3 0 .5 1 3 1 .6 1 3 2 .6 1 3 3 .4 7 .5 1 3 3 .8 1 3 4 .2 1 3 4 .8 1 3 5 .1 1 3 5 .0 * -9 1 5 .2 5 .2 4 .8 4 .7 4 .7 4 .9 5 .2 4 .9 4 .9 4 .2 3 .5 2 .9 2 .7 2 .5 1 .5 0 .9 2 .7 5 -9 1 5 .1 5 .1 4 .7 4 .7 4 .6 4 .8 5 .0 4 .8 4 .8 4 .2 3 .5 3 .0 2 .9 2 .7 2 .0 1 .8 3 .2 3 .6 6 -9 1 5 .0 5 .0 4 .6 4 .5 4 .5 4 .6 4 .8 4 .6 4 .6 4 .0 3 .4 2 .9 2 .8 2 .7 2 .1 2 .0 3 .0 3 .1 2 .7 1 1 -8 9 1 2 -8 9 1 -9 0 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 5 -9 0 6 -9 0 7 -9 0 8 -9 0 9 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0 1 -9 1 2 -9 1 3 -9 1 4 -9 1 5 -9 1 1 3 5 .3 1 3 5 .7 136. 1 The C P I i s fo r a l l u rb an c o n s u M r s . P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is J u ly 1 7 , 1991 Consumer Price Index - Food (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) T e r m in a l M onth 11-89 12-89 In itia l 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 5 .8 1-90 1 3 .4 2 1 .5 2-90 11.8 1 4 .9 9 .2 1 0 .4 5 .2 1.8 7 .4 3 .1 0 .5 - 0 .9 5-90 5 .9 5 .9 2 .3 0 .3 - 0 .5 5-91 1 3 1 .3 0.0 1 3 1 .2 1 3 2 .1 6 .3 6 .3 3 .5 2 .3 2 .5 4 .2 8 .5 7-90 6 .3 6 .4 4 .0 3 .1 3 .5 5 .0 7 .5 6 .5 8-90 6.0 6.0 4 .6 6.2 5 .1 3 .7 4 .4 5 .6 4 .6 3 .7 3 .7 5 .4 4 .6 4 .0 4 .1 5 .8 4 .0 3 .9 3 .2 3 .3 3 .5 3 .5 1 3 2 .8 1 3 3 .2 1 3 3 .6 4 .6 1 3 4 .1 10-90 5 .7 5 .6 4 .0 3 .5 3 .7 4 .5 11-90 5 .6 5 .6 4 .2 3 .7 3 .9 4 .6 5 .4 4 .8 4 .4 4 .6 5 .0 5 .5 4 .3 4 .9 4 .3 3 .8 3 .9 3 .9 3 .6 1.8 5 .2 4 .7 4 .4 4 .6 4 .8 4 .9 4 .5 3 .3 3 .3 2 .9 5 .5 4-91 1 3 1 .2 6-90 1-91 3-91 1 31 .1 7 .1 5 .3 2-91 8.6 3-90 12-90 1-91 1 3 0 .2 4-90 5 .8 1982-84=100 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1 28 .1 L2-89 9-90 M onth 8-90 5 .3 5 .5 3 .9 4 .2 3 .5 3 .8 3 .7 4 .0 4 .6 1 3 4 .7 1 3 4 .9 7 .4 1 3 5 .7 2-91 4 .9 4 .9 3 .7 3 .3 3 .4 3 .9 4 .3 3 .8 3 .4 3-91 4 .8 4 .7 3 .6 3 .2 3 .4 3 .7 4 .1 3 .7 3 .3 3 .2 3 .2 2 .9 2.1 2.2 - 2 .6 2.2 2 .4 0.0 4 .0 4 .0 3 .9 3 .6 4 .1 3 .5 3 .5 3 .3 3 .0 3 .2 2.2 3 .9 4 .5 0.0 3 .8 3 .7 3 .5 3 .7 3 .0 4 .5 5 .1 3 .1 6 .3 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 4-91 5 .0 5 .0 4 .0 3 .7 3 .8 4 .2 4 .6 4 .2 3 .9 5-91 4 .8 4 .7 3 .7 3 .4 3 .5 3 .9 4 .2 3 .8 3 .5 6-91 4 .8 3 .9 3 .6 3 .7 4 .0 4 .4 4 .0 3 .8 3 .8 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 4 .8 3 .0 1 3 5 .4 2 .7 5 .9 9 .2 1 3 5 .7 1 3 6 .7 1 3 6 .7 P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e Ba n k o f S t . J u l y 1 7 , 1991 1 3 7 .4 L o u is Consumer Price Index - Energy (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s o f C h a n g e ) T e r m in a l M onth 11-89 12-89 In it ia l 1-90 2-90 12-89 3 .9 1-90 3 4 .1 7 3 .0 2-90 1 6 .7 2 3 .7 - 1 1 .5 3-90 9 .9 12.0 - 9 .9 - 8 .3 4-90 7 .8 8 .9 - 6 .7 - 4 .2 5-90 5 .8 6.2 - 6 .0 - 4 .0 6-90 6.1 6 .5 - 3 .4 - 1 .2 7-90 4 .8 5 .0 - 3 .4 - 1 .7 8-90 1 0 .4 11.2 4 .4 7 .3 9-90 1 6 .3 1 7 .8 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 M on th 8-90 1982-84*100 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 9 4 .1 9 8 .5 9 6 .8 0.0 - 1 .8 9 6 .8 - 3 .7 1.2 1 .9 0.0 0.0 1 0 .7 9 6 .5 7 .7 9 7 .1 1 .9 - 3 .6 1 3 .6 20.0 2 6 .7 6 6 .5 9 6 .8 101.0 1 6 .2 20.8 2 5 .5 3 4 .0 4 4 .2 7 6 .4 86.8 1 7 .1 2 1 .3 2 6 .3 3 1 .3 3 9 .6 4 9 .0 7 2 .3 7 5 .3 6 4 .4 1 5 .9 1 9 .4 2 3 .5 2 7 .2 3 3 .3 3 9 .1 5 2 .4 4 8 .0 3 1 .7 5 .5 1 6 .7 1 9 .9 22.6 2 6 .9 3 0 .4 3 8 .6 3 2 .4 1 8 .0 0.0 1 6 .0 1 8 .7 2 0 .4 2 4 .9 1 8 .0 5 .2 8 .9 1 0 .4 1 0 .7 1 2 .9 4 .5 5 .0 5 .9 5 .7 3 .5 3 .8 4 .5 4 .5 4 .9 3 .4 3-90 11-90 12-90 1 6 .7 1 7 .9 1 3 .8 1-91 1 3 .0 1 3 .8 9 .8 2-91 8 .5 8 .9 5 .1 3-91 5 .9 6.0 2 .3 4-91 5 .0 5 .1 5-91 5 .7 5 .8 ^ -9 1 4 .7 4 .8 11-89 12-89 9 7 .5 1 2 .3 20.0 21.8 1 8 .8 20.2 10-90 3-90 12.0 1 4 .3 6.6 8.0 3 .5 1.6 2.6 2.6 3 . 6 1 .7 2.6 1-90 2-90 1 0 6 .4 1 1 0 .9 1 1 1 .4 - 5 .3 1 1 0 .9 - 9 .4 - 1 6 .0 - 2 5 .6 1 0 8 .2 5 .8 - 5 .5 - 1 7 .8 - 2 4 .3 - 3 2 .4 - 3 8 .5 1 0 3 .9 6 .9 0 .3 - 9 .5 - 1 9 .7 - 2 5 .0 - 3 0 .7 - 3 3 .1 - 2 7 .1 4 .2 5 .1 - 0 .7 - 9 .3 - 1 7 .9 - 2 1 .9 - 2 5 .6 - 2 5 .6 - 1 8 .1 5 .6 5 .4 6 .4 3 .6 4 .2 3 .9 4 .6 - 0 .1 - 6 .8 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1.2 101.2 - 8 .0 - 6 .3 - 1 3 .5 - 1 6 .3 - 1 8 .4 - 1 6 .5 - 7 .5 4 .2 - 1 3 .2 - 1 5 .6 - 1 7 .2 - 1 5 .4 - 8 .4 - 1 .2 2-91 3-91 1-91 1 0 0 .5 1 8 .1 1 0 1 .9 2 .4 - 1 1 .2 4-91 1 0 0 .9 5-91 P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e se rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is Ju ly 1 7 , 1991 3 Producer Price Index - Finished Goods Percent Change From Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted Percent Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Producer Price Index - Finished Goods (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a le s o f C h a n g e ) T e r m in a l M onth 11-89 12-89 In itia l 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 M on th 8-90 1982 - 100 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 1 1 5 .5 12-89 7 .6 1-90 1 5 .0 2 2 .9 1 1 7 .5 2-90 9 .4 1 0 .3 - 1 .0 3-90 6 .7 6 .4 - 1 .0 - 1 .0 1 1 7 .4 4-90 5 .1 4 .5 - 1 .0 - 1 .0 - 1 .0 5-90 4 .9 4 .4 0 .3 0 .7 1 .5 6-90 4 .2 3 .7 0.2 7-90 4 .2 3 .7 0 .9 1.0 2.1 0.0 1.2 1.8 2.8 2.1 8-90 5 .3 5 .0 2.6 3 .S 4 .1 5 .5 5 .9 9 .0 1 4 .1 9-90 6 .3 6.2 4 .2 5 .0 6.1 7 .5 8 .4 1 1 .3 1 5 .1 1 6 .2 10-90 7 .1 7 .1 5 .5 6 .3 7 .4 8 .9 9 .9 1 2 .5 1 5 .4 1 6 .1 1 6 .0 11-90 7 .0 6 .9 5 .4 6.2 7 .1 8 .3 9 .0 1 0 .9 1 2 .7 1 2 .3 1 0 .4 12-90 6.0 5 .9 4 .5 5 .0 5 .7 9 .0 7 .7 5 .1 0.0 - 4 .8 1-91 5 .6 5 .5 4 .2 4 .7 5 .2 7 .6 6 .4 4 .0 0 .3 - 1 .9 1 1 7 .3 1 1 7 .2 1 1 7 .6 4 .2 0 .5 1 1 7 .6 4 .2 6.6 6 . 9 8.2 6.0 6.2 7 .1 1 1 8 .0 1 1 9 .3 120.8 1 2 2 .3 122.8 5 .0 1 2 2 .3 1.0 1 2 2 .4 2-91 4 .6 4 .4 3 .1 3 .5 3 .9 4 .4 4 .4 5 .0 5 .1 3 .7 1 .4 - 1 .9 - 4 .2 - 3 .9 - 8 .5 3-91 4 .0 3 .7 2 .5 2 .7 3 .1 3 .4 3 .4 S .8 3 .7 2 .3 0.2 - 2 .7 - 4 .6 - 4 .5 - 7 .1 - 5 .8 4-91 3 .8 3 .6 2 .4 2 .7 3 .0 3 .3 3 .3 3 .6 3 .5 2 .3 0 .4 - 2 .0 - 3 .3 - 2 .9 - 4 .2 - 2 .0 - 0 .7 - 1 .6 - 1 .0 - 1 .5 4 .6 7 .2 - 1 .1 - 1 .9 - 1 .5 - 1 .9 - 0 .2 1 .7 1 .5 - 3 .9 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 5-91 4 .0 3 .8 2 .7 3 .0 3 .3 3 .6 3 .6 3 .9 3 .9 6-91 3 .6 3 .4 2 .3 2 .5 2.8 3 .1 3 .0 3 .2 3 .1 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 3-90 2.8 1.2 2.1 0 .7 8-90 1 2 1 .5 1.0 1 2 0 .9 2.0 121.1 121.8 1 21 .4 P re p a re d by F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is J u ly 1 2 , 1991 4 Civilian E m p l o y m e n t a n d U n e m p l o y m e n t R a t e Sea son a lly Ad ju ste d P e rcent Millions o f P e r s o n s 1985 S h a d e d a re a P e rc e n ta g e s 1986 repre sen ts a a re rates of c h a n g e a n n u a l 1988 1987 period of b u siness 1989 1990 1991 recession. fo r periods indicated. P re p a re d C iv ilia n b y Federal R e serve B a n k o f St. Lo u is E m p lo y m e n t (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Tor«inai Month 11-89 12-89 12-89 0.4 1-90 0.1 -0 .1 2-90 0.5 0.6 In itia l Month 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 Thousands of Persons 117,957 117,945 1.3 118,074 3-90 0.8 0.9 1.5 1.6 4-90 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.1 -1 .5 5-90 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.2 1.9 6-90 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.7 -0 .4 7-90 0.0 -0 .1 -0 .1 -0 .4 -0 .9 -0 .7 -2 .0 8-90 -0 .3 -0 .3 -0 .4 -0 .6 -1 .1 -1 .0 -2 .0 -2 .7 -1 .9 9-90 0.0 -0 .1 -0 .1 -0 .3 -0 .6 -0 .4 -1 .0 -1 .2 0.0 2.0 10-90 -0 .2 -0 .2 -0 .2 -0 .4 -0 .7 -0 .6 -1 .1 -1 .3 -0 .5 0.2 -1 .5 11-90 -0 .5 -0 .5 -0 .6 -0 .8 -1 .1 -1 .0 -1 .5 -1 .7 -1 .3 -1 .0 -2 .5 -3 .5 12-90 -0 .3 -0 .3 -0 .3 -0 .5 -0 .7 -0 .7 -1 .0 -1 .1 -0 .6 -0 .3 -1 .0 -0 .8 1.9 1-91 -0 .7 -0 .8 -0 .9 -1 .1 -1 .3 -1 .3 -1 .7 -1 .9 -1 .6 -1 .6 -2 .4 -2 .7 -2 .3 -6 .5 2-91 -0 .7 -0 .8 -0 .8 -1 .0 -1 .2 -1 .2 -1 .5 -1 .7 -1 .4 -1 .3 -2 .0 -2 .1 -1 .6 -3 .3 0.0 3-91 -0 .7 -0 .8 -0 .9 -1 .0 -1 .3 -1 .2 -1 .5 -1 .7 -1 .4 -1 .4 -1 .9 -2 .0 -1 .6 -2 .8 -0 .9 -1 .7 4-91 -0 .3 -0 .4 -0 .4 -0 .5 -0 .7 -0 .6 -0 .8 -0 .9 -0 .5 -0 .4 -0 .7 -0 .6 0.0 -0 .4 1.6 2.5 6.8 5-91 -0 .8 -0 .8 -0 .9 -1 .0 -1 .2 -1 .2 -1 .4 -1 .5 -1 .3 -1 .2 -1 .6 -1 .7 -1 .3 -2 .0 -0 .8 -1.1 -0 .8 -7 .9 6-91 -0 .6 -0 .6 -0 .6 -0 .8 -0 .9 -0 .9 -1 .1 -1 .1 -0 .9 -0 .8 -1 .1 -1 .1 -0 .7 -1 .2 -0 .1 -0 .1 0.4 -2 .6 3.1 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 118,235 118,090 118,277 118,237 -3 .5 117,882 117,690 117,883 117,733 117,386 117,574 116,922 116,918 116,754 117,398 116,591 116,884 P re p a re d by F e d e ra l R e se rve Bank o f S t . Louis J u ly 5 , 1991 Payroll E m p l o y m e n t Sea son a lly A d ju ste d M illions o f Millions o f P e r s o n s 1985 S h a d e d a re a P e rc e n ta g e s 1986 re p re sen ts a a re rates of c h a n g e a n n u a l period of bu sin e ss 1989 1988 1987 1990 P e rs o n s 1991 recession. fo r periods indicated. P re p a re d P a y r o ll b y Federal R e s e rve B a n k o f St. Louis E m p lo y m e n t (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Ter»inai Month 11-89 12-89 12-89 1.4 1-90 2.0 2.5 In itia l Month 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 Thousands of Porsons 109,189 109,416 2-90 2.7 3.4 4 .2 3-90 2.4 2.8 2.9 1.6 109,792 4-90 1.9 2.1 1.9 0.8 5-90 2.3 2.5 2.5 1.9 6-90 2.2 2.3 2.2 1.8 1.8 2.8 1.4 7-90 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.0 0.9 1.2 -0 .2 -1 .8 8-90 1.3 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.6 -0 .5 -1 .5 -1 .2 9-90 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.4 -0 .5 -1 .2 -0 .8 -0 .5 10-90 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 -0 .7 -1 .2 -1 .0 -1 .0 -1 .4 11-90 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.0 -0 .2 -0 .3 -1 .0 -1 .5 -1 .4 -1 .4 -1 .9 -2 .4 12-90 0.5 0.4 0.2 -0 .2 -0 .4 -0 .4 -1 .1 -1 .5 -1 .4 -1 .5 -1 .8 -2 .0 -1 .5 1-91 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0 .4 -0 .6 -0 .6 -1 .2 -1 .6 -1 .5 -1 .6 -1 .9 -2 .0 -1 .9 -2 .2 2-91 0.1 0.0 -0 .2 -0 .6 -0 .8 -0 .8 -1 .4 -1 .7 -1 .7 -1 .8 -2 .1 -2 .2 -2 .2 -2 .5 -2 .8 3-91 -0.1 -0 .2 -0 .4 -0 .7 -0 .9 -1 .0 -1 .5 -1 .8 -1 .9 -1 .9 -2 .2 -2 .3 -2 .3 -2 .6 -2 .8 -2 .8 4-91 -0 .2 -0 .3 -0 .5 -0 .8 -1 .0 -1 .1 -1 .5 -1 .8 -1 .8 -1 .9 -2 .1 -2 .3 -2 .2 -2 .4 -2 .5 -2 .3 -1 .8 -1 .5 -1 .6 -1 .7 -1 .8 -1 .6 -1 .7 -1 .5 -1 .1 -0 .3 1.3 -1 .6 -1 .5 109,933 0.0 2.0 109,934 4.1 110,304 110,435 110,269 110,160 110,113 109,982 109,761 109,621 109,418 109,160 108,902 108,736 5-91 -0 .1 -0 .2 -0 .4 -0 .7 -0 .8 -0 .9 -1 .3 -1 .6 6-91 -0 .2 -0 .2 -0 .4 -0 .7 -0 .8 -0 .9 -1 .3 -1 .5 -1 .4 -1 .5 -1 .6 -1 .5 -1 .3 -1 .0 -0 .4 0.4 -0 .5 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 108,855 108,805 P re p a re d by F o d e ra i R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is J u ly 5 , 1991 S e r v ic e -P r o d u c in g E m p lo y m e n t (Compounded Annual Rales of Change) Terainal Month 11-89 12-89 In itia l Month 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 Thousands of Persons 83,977 12-89 2.9 1-90 3.3 3 .6 2-90 3.3 3.4 3.3 3-90 3.3 3.4 3.3 84,226 84,453 84,678 3.2 84,769 4-90 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.3 1.3 5-90 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 5.7 6-90 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 4.1 2.6 7-90 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.3 0.6 -1 .4 8-90 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.6 0.3 -0 .8 -0 .3 9-90 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.4 0.4 -0 .3 0.2 0.7 10-90 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.2 0.3 -0 .2 0.2 0.4 0.1 11-90 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.3 -0 .2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 12-90 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.2 -0 .2 0.0 0.1 -0 .1 -0 .2 -0 .5 1-91 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.1 -0 .2 0.0 0.0 -0 .1 -0 .2 -0 .3 85,163 85,342 85,242 85,223 85,271 85,277 85,280 85,246 -0 .1 85,237 2-91 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 -0 .1 -0 .4 -0 .2 -0 .2 -0 .4 -0 .5 -0 .7 -0 .9 -1 .6 3-91 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 -0 .2 -0 .5 -0 .4 -0 .4 -0 .6 -0 .7 -0 .9 -1 .0 -1 .5 -1 .3 4-91 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 -0 .3 -0 .6 -0 .5 -0 .5 -0 .7 -0 .8 -0 .9 -1 .1 -1 .4 -1 .3 -1 .2 5-91 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 -0 .2 -0 .4 -0 .3 -0 .3 -0 .4 -0 .5 -0 .6 -0 .6 -0 .8 -0 .5 0.0 1.1 6-91 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 -0 .1 -0 .4 -0 .3 -0 .3 -0 .4 -0 .4 -0 .5 -0 .5 -0 .5 -0 .3 0.1 0.7 0.3 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 85,121 85,025 84,942 85,022 85,043 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis July 5 , 1991 G o o d s -P r o d u c in g E m p lo y m e n t (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Terainal Month 11-89 12-89 In itia l Month 1-90 2-90 12-89 -3 .6 1-90 -2 .3 -1 .0 2-90 0.8 3.1 7.3 3-90 -0 .4 0.7 1.6 -3 .9 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 Thousands of Persons 25,212 25,190 25,339 25,255 4-90 -1 .2 -0 .6 -0 .4 -4 .1 -4 .2 5-90 -1 .2 -0 .7 -0 .6 -3 .1 -2 .7 -1 .1 6-90 -1 .3 -0 .9 -0 .9 -2 .9 -2 .5 -1 .7 -2 .3 7-90 -1 .6 -1 .3 -1 .3 -2 .9 -2 .7 -2 .2 -2 .7 -3 .1 8-90 -1 .9 -1 .6 -1 .7 -3 .1 -3 .0 -2 .7 -3 .2 -3 .7 -4 .2 9-90 -2 .1 -2 .0 -2 .1 -3 .3 -3 .2 -3 .1 -3 .5 -3 .9 -4 .4 -4 .5 10-90 -2 .5 -2 .4 -2 .6 -3 .7 -3 .7 -3 .6 -4 .1 -4 .6 -5 .0 -5 .5 -6 .4 11-90 -3 .2 -3 .2 -3 .4 -4 .5 -4 .6 -4 .6 -5 .2 -5 .8 -6 .4 -7 .1 -8 .4 -10.4 12-90 -3 .3 -3 .3 -3 .5 -4 .5 -4 .6 -4 .7 -5 .2 -5 .6 -6 .1 -6 .6 -7 .3 -7 .8 -5 .1 25,165 25,141 25,093 25,027 24,937 24,842 24,705 24,481 24,375 1-91 -3 .8 -3 .8 -4 .0 -5 .0 -5 .1 -5 .2 -5 .7 -6 .1 -6 .6 -7 .1 -7 .8 -8 .2 -7 .1 -9 .1 2-91 -4 .0 -4 .0 -4 .2 -5 .1 -5 .2 -5 .3 -5 .8 -6 .2 -6 .7 -7 .1 -7 .6 -7 .9 -7 .0 -8 .0 -6 .8 3-91 -4 .2 -4 .3 -4 .5 -5 .3 -5 .5 -5 .6 -6 .0 -6 .4 -6 .8 -7 .2 -7 .6 -7 .9 -7 .2 -7 .9 -7 .3 -7 .8 4-91 -4 .2 -4 .2 -4 .5 -5 .2 -5 .4 -5 .4 -5 .8 -6 .2 -6 .5 -6 .8 -7 .1 -7 .2 -6 .6 -7 .0 -6 .2 -6 .0 -4 .1 5-91 -3 .9 -3 .9 -4 .1 -4 .8 -4 .8 -4 .9 -5 .2 -5 .5 -5 .7 -5 .9 -6 .0 -6 .0 -5 .2 -5 .3 -4 .3 -3 .4 -1 .1 2.0 6-91 -3 .9 -3 .9 -4 .0 -4 .7 -4 .8 -4 .8 -5 .1 -5 .3 -5 .5 -5 .6 -5 .8 -5 .7 -5 .0 -5 .0 -4 .1 -3 .4 -1 .9 -0 .8 -3 .5 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 24,181 24,039 23,877 23,794 23,833 23,762 P re p a re d by F e d e ra l R e se rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is Ju ly 5 , 1991 7 C h a n g e i n t h e E m p l o y m e n t C o s t I n d e x a n d Its C o m p o n e n t s P e rce n t C h a n g e F r o m P revio us Y e a r Sea son a lly A d ju ste d P e rce n t Total P e rc e n t c o m p e n s a tio n is t h e s u m of w a g e s a n d salaries, a n d benefits fo r private industry w orkers. P re p a re d E m p lo y m e n t C o st In d ex - T o ta l by Federal R e serve B a n k o f St. Louis C o m p e n s a tio n (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Terairtal Quarter In itia l Quarter 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 4-86 2.7 1-87 2.9 3.1 2-87 3.0 3.1 3.1 3-87 3.2 3.4 3.6 4.0 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 June 1989 * 100 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 90.2 90.9 91.6 92.5 4-87 3.3 3.4 3.5 3 .7 3 .5 1-88 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.4 93.3 94.5 5.2 2-88 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.5 4 .6 5.2 5.2 3-88 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.7 4.5 3.8 95.7 4-88 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.4 96.6 5.1 97.8 1-89 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.5 4 .7 4.6 4.3 4 .6 4.2 2-89 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.6 4 .7 4.6 4.5 4 .7 4.5 3-89 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.6 4 .8 4.7 4.7 4 .9 4.8 5.1 5.3 4-89 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.8 4.7 4 .6 4.8 4.7 4 .9 4.9 4.4 1-90 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.7 4 .7 4.9 4.8 4 .8 4 .9 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.6 98.8 4.9 100.0 101.3 102.4 103.8 2-90 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.8 4 .9 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.3 5.1 3-90 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.9 4 .8 5.0 4.7 4.3 4-90 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 4 .7 4.7 4 .6 4 .7 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.4 4.0 3.8 1-91 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.6 2-91 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.7 4 .7 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.7 4.9 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 105.1 106.2 107.2 108.4 1 0 9.J Data are for the last «onth of quarter. P re p a re d by F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is J u ly 3 0 , 1991 8 Industrial P r o d u c t i o n Seasonally A d ju ste d 1 9 8 7 -1 0 0 1987-100 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 1985 S h a d e d 1986 1987 a re a re p re sen ts a P e rc e n ta g e s a re a n n u a l rates o f c h a n g e period o f b u sin e ss 1988 1989 1990 1991 recession. fo r period s indicated. P re p a re d I n d u s tr ia l b y Federal R e s e rve B a n k o f St. Louis P r o d u c tio n (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Torsinai Month 11-89 12-89 12-89 1-90 In itia l Month 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 5.7 1987 - 100 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 108.6 -3 .3 -11.5 2-90 1.5 3-90 4-90 107.5 -0 .6 11.8 108.5 2.2 1.1 8.1 4.5 1.6 0.6 4.9 1.7 -1 .1 5-90 2.4 1.8 5.4 3.4 2.8 6.8 6-90 3.2 2.8 5 .9 4.5 4.5 7.4 7-90 3.2 2.9 5.5 4 .3 4 .2 6.0 5.6 3 .3 8-90 3.0 2.6 4 .8 3.7 3.6 4.8 4.1 2.2 108.9 108.8 109.4 8.0 110.1 110.4 1.1 110.5 9-90 2.8 2.5 4.4 3.3 3.1 4.0 3 .3 1.8 1.1 1.1 10-90 1.8 1.4 3.0 1.9 1.6 2.0 1.1 -0 .5 -1 .8 -3 .2 -7 .3 109.9 11-90 0.2 -0 .3 0.9 -0 .2 -0 .8 -0 .8 -2 .0 -3 .9 -5 .6 -7 .7 -11.8 -16.1 108.3 12-90 -0 .8 -1 .3 -0 .3 -1 .4 -2 .1 -2 .2 -3 .4 -5 .2 -6 .8 -8 .7 -11.7 -13.9 -11.5 1-91 -1 .2 -1 .7 -0 .8 -1 .9 -2 .5 -2 .7 -3 .8 -5 .4 -6 .8 -8 .3 -10.5 -1 1 .5 -9 .1 110.6 107.2 -6 .5 106.6 2-91 -1 .8 -2 .3 -1 .5 -2 .6 -3 .2 -3 .4 -4 .5 -5 .9 -7 .2 -8 .5 -10.3 -11.0 -9 .3 -8 .1 -9 .7 3-91 -2 .2 -2 .7 -2 .0 -3 .0 -3 .6 -3 .8 -4 .8 -6 .1 -7 .2 -8 .4 -9 .9 -10.4 -8 .9 -8 .0 -8 .7 -7 .7 4-91 -1 .7 -2 .1 -1 .5 -2 .4 -2 .9 -3 .0 -3 .9 -5 .0 -5 .9 -6 .7 -7 .8 -7 .8 -6 .1 -4 .7 -4 .1 -1 .1 5.9 5-91 -1 .2 -1 .6 -0 .9 -1 .7 -2 .1 -2 .2 -2 .9 -3 .9 -4 .5 -5 .2 -5 .9 -5 .7 -3 .8 -2 .2 -1 .1 1.9 7.1 8.3 6-91 -0 .7 -1 .0 -0 .4 -1 .1 -1 .5 -1 .5 -2 .1 -2 .9 -3 .5 -3 .9 -4 .4 -4 .1 -2 .2 -0 .6 0.7 3.4 7.4 8.2 8.2 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 105.7 105.0 105.5 106.2 106.9 P ro p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e se rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is J u ly 1 6 , 1991 P e r s o n a l I n c o m e in 1 9 8 2 Dollars S easonally A d ju ste d Trillions of Dollars Trillions o f Dollars 3.6 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.4 T h e person a l S h a d e d a re a P e rc e n ta g e s c o n s u m p tio n e x pe nditures repre sen ts a a re rates a n n u a l period d e f la t o r is of bu sin e ss of c h a n g e u se d to calculate real person a l in c o m e . recession. for periods indicated. P re p a re d D is p o s a b le P e rso n a l In co m e in by 1982 Federal R e serve B a n k o f St. Louis D o lla r s (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Terainal Month 11-89 12-89 In itia l Month 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 Billions of Dollars Annual Rates 5-91 2,893.7 12-89 4.6 1-90 2.1 -0 .2 2-90 2.5 1.5 3 .3 3-90 2.7 2.1 3 .3 3.3 4-90 1.5 0.8 1.1 0.0 -3 .1 5-90 1.2 0.6 0.8 -0 .1 -1 .7 -0 .2 6-90 1.4 0.9 1.2 0.6 -0 .2 1.3 2.8 7-90 1.4 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.2 1.3 2.1 1.5 8-90 0.6 0.2 0.2 -0 .3 -1 .0 -0 .4 -0 .5 -2 .1 -5 .5 2,893.1 2,900.9 2,908.7 2,901.0 2,900.4 2,907.1 2,910.6 2,896.8 9-90 0.2 -0 .3 -0 .3 -0 .8 -1 .5 -1 .2 -1 .4 -2 .8 -4 .8 -4 .1 10-90 -0 .7 -1 .2 -1 .4 -1 .9 -2 .6 -2 .6 -3 .0 -4 .4 -6 .3 -6 .7 -9 .2 11-90 -0 .5 -0 .9 -1 .0 -1 .4 -2 .0 -1 .8 -2 .1 -3 .0 -4 .1 -3 .7 -3 .5 2,886.8 2,863.7 2.6 2,869.9 12-90 0.0 -0 .4 -0 .4 -0 .7 -1 .2 -0 .9 -1 .0 -1 .6 -2 .2 -1 .4 -0 .5 4 .2 1-91 -0 .7 -1 .1 -1 .2 -1 .6 -2 .1 -2 .0 -2 .2 -2 .9 -3 .6 -3 .2 -3 .0 -0 .8 -2 .5 -10.2 2-91 -0 .7 -1 .0 -1 .1 -1 .4 -1 .9 -1 .7 -1 .9 -2 .5 -3 .0 -2 .6 -2 .3 -0 .5 -1 .5 -5 .0 3-91 -0 .4 -0 .7 -0 .7 -1 .0 -1 .4 -1 .2 -1 .3 -1 .7 -2 .1 -1 .6 -1 .2 0.5 -0 .1 -2 .0 2.4 4.4 4-91 -0 .5 -0 .8 -0 .8 -1 .1 -1 .4 -1 .3 -1 .4 -1 .8 -2 .1 -1 .7 -1 .4 0.0 -0 .5 -2 .0 0.9 1.1 -2 .2 5-91 -0 .3 -0 .6 -0 .6 -0 .9 -1 .2 -1 .0 -1 .1 -1 .4 -1 .7 -1 .3 -0 .9 0.3 -0 .1 -1 .2 1.2 1.4 -0 .1 2.1 6-91 -0 .1 -0 .3 - 0 .3 -0 .5 -0 .8 -0 .6 -0 .7 -0 .9 -1 .2 -0 .7 -0 .3 0.8 0.6 -0 .2 1.9 2.2 1.5 3.4 4.7 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 5.8 2,883.5 2,857.8 0.5 2,858.9 2,869.2 2,863.9 2,868.8 2,8 79.y P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is J u ly 2 9 , 1991 10 R et a i l S a l e s Sea son a lly A d ju ste d Billions o f D o llars Billions o f D o llars 165 1 6 5 - 1.6*\N 1 145 145 6.5* Curren t D o l l a r s x S N 125 125 1 i V 1 I 1 \ A s.-' ✓ V 105 - g» *■--------------------1 1 \ t 1 ? 8* 105 1 9 8 2 - 84 DollarsX's 1 85 1 1 -T- S h a d e d a re a re p re sen ts C P I is u s e d P e rc e n ta g e s T------ ■ a period a n n u a l rates i ■ of b u sin e ss to d e fla te retail sales a re 1 i 1 i 1988 1987 1986 1985 T h e 1 I i 1 T™ 1 1 85 1991 1990 1989 . 1 f recession. d ata. of c h a n g e fo r pe riod s indicated. P re p a re d R e t a il S a le s in 1982 by Federal R e s e rve B a n k o f St. Louis D o lla r s (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Torsinai Honth 11-89 12-89 In itia l Honth 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 12-69 -5 .6 1-90 7.5 22.4 2-90 1.6 5.3 -9 .4 3-90 -1 .1 0.5 -9 .0 -8 .6 4-90 -2 .5 -1 .7 -8 .6 -8 .2 -7 .8 5-90 -2 .9 -2 .4 -7 .8 -7 .2 -6 .6 -5 .3 6-90 -1 .8 -1 .2 -5 .3 -4 .3 -2 .8 -0 .2 7-90 -1 .7 -1 .1 -4 .6 -3 .6 -2 .4 -0 .5 2.0 -0 .9 6-90 -2 .3 -1 .9 -4 .9 -4 .2 -3 .2 -2.1 -1 .0 -3 .9 -6 .7 9-90 -1 .9 -1 .5 -4 .1 -3 .3 -2 .4 -1 .3 -0 .3 -2 .0 -2 .5 1.8 10-90 -2 .6 -2 .3 -4 .7 -4 .1 -3 .4 -2 .7 -2 .2 -3 .9 -4 .9 -3 .9 -9 .3 11-90 -2 .3 -2 .0 -4 .2 -3 .6 -2 .9 -2 .2 -1 .7 -3 .0 -3 .5 -2 .5 -4 .5 12-90 -4 .2 -4 .0 -6 .1 -5 .8 -5 .5 -5 .2 -5 .2 -6 .8 -8 .0 -8 .3 -11.4 -12.4 -23.7 1-91 -5 .3 -5 .3 -7 .3 -7 .1 -7 .0 -6 .9 -7 .1 -8 .7 -9 .9 -10.5 -13.4 -14.7 -21.4 -19.0 2-91 -3 .4 -3 .3 -5 .0 -4 .7 -4 .3 -3 .9 -3 .8 -4 .8 -5 .4 -5 .2 -6 .5 -5 .8 -7 .8 1.4 26.8 3-91 -3 .0 -2 .8 -4 .4 -4 .0 -3 .6 -3 .3 -3 .0 -3 .9 -4 .3 -3 .9 -4 .8 -3 .9 -5 .0 2.2 14.8 3.9 4-91 -3 .2 -3 .1 -4 .6 -4 .2 -3 .9 -3 .5 -3 .4 -4 .2 -4 .5 -4 .2 -5 .1 -4 .3 -5 .3 0.0 7 .2 -1 .4 -6 .4 5-91 -2 .7 -2 .5 -3 .9 -3 .5 -3 .2 -2 .8 -2 .6 -3 .3 -3 .5 -3 .1 -3 .7 -2 .9 -3 .5 1.2 7.0 1.1 -0 .3 6.2 6-91 -2 .8 -2 .6 -4 .0 -3 .6 -3 .3 -2 .9 -2 .7 -3 .4 -3 .6 -3 .3 -3 .8 -3 .1 -3 .6 0.2 4.6 -0 .4 -1 .7 0.7 -4 .6 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 Millions of Dollars 116,295 118,271 117,307 116,434 115,649 115,126 5.1 115,601 115,513 114,844 115,017 114,086 0.5 114,134 111,587 109,646 111,837 112,198 111,579 112,144 111,704 R e t a il s a le s d a ta d e fla te d by C PI-U (1982-84= 100). P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is J u ly 1 2 , 1991 11 Inventories C o m p a r e d W i t h M o n t h l y Sales M a n u fa ctu rin g a n d T r a d e S easonally A d ju ste d “i — ■— — 1— 1985 S h a d e d a re a T 1986 rep re sen ts a 1987 p e riod o f b u sin e ss 1988 recession. P re p a re d B u s in e s s by Federal R e s e rve B a n k o f St. Louis In v e n to r ie s (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Terainal Month 10-89 11-89 12-89 In itia l Month 1-90 11-89 5.7 12-89 1.3 -3 .0 1-90 1.1 -1 .1 0.7 2-90 0.5 -1 .1 -0 .2 -1 .1 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 Millions of Dollars 812,304 810,257 810,742 810,024 3-90 0.7 -0 .5 0.3 0.1 1.2 4-90 1.1 0.2 1.0 1.1 2.2 3 .2 5-90 1.7 1.1 1.9 2.2 3 .3 4 .4 5.6 6-90 0.7 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.8 -0 .4 -6 .0 7-90 1.7 1.2 1.8 2.0 2.7 3.0 3.0 1.7 10.0 8-90 2.2 1.8 2.5 2.7 3.3 3 .8 3.9 3 .4 8 .4 6 .8 9-90 2.5 2.2 2.8 3.1 3.7 4.1 4 .2 3 .9 7.4 6 .2 5 .5 10-90 2.7 2.4 3.0 3.2 3 .8 4 .2 4 .3 4.1 6 .8 5 .7 5 .2 4.8 11-90 2.7 2.5 3.0 3 .2 3 .7 4.0 4.1 3 .9 6.0 5 .0 4.4 3 .9 3.0 12-90 1.9 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.2 3 .6 2.4 1.3 -0 .1 -2 .5 -7 .7 1-91 2.3 2.0 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.0 2.7 4.0 3.1 2.3 1.6 0.5 -0 .7 6 .7 2-91 1.8 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.3 1.9 2.9 1 .9 1.2 0.3 -0 .8 -2 .0 0.9 3-91 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.4 1.2 0.1 -0 .8 -1 .8 -3 .1 -4 .6 -3 .5 4-91 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.7 - 0 .3 -1 .2 -2 .1 -3 .2 -4 .4 -3 .6 -6 .8 -7 .9 -3 .9 5-91 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0 .1 -0 .5 0.0 -0 .9 -1 .8 -2 .6 -3 .7 -4 .7 -4.1 -6 .7 -7 .4 -5 .1 -6 .3 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 810,830 812,976 816,667 812,457 818,951 823,468 827,145 830,414 832,464 826,941 831,445 -4 .6 828,201 -8 .2 -11.8 819,615 816,893 812,471 P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . Louis J u ly I S , 1991 12 Gross National P r o d u c t Seasonally Ad ju ste d Trillions of Dollars Trillions o f Dollars 6 .1 5. 4 4.7 4.0 3 .3 1986 1985 S h a d e d 1987 a re a re p re sen ts a P e rc e n ta g e s a re a n n u a l rates o f c h a n g e period o f b u sin e ss 1988 1989 recession, fo r periods indicated. P re p a re d G ro ss 1991 1990 N a tio n a l P ro d u ct in 1982 b y Fe d e ra l R e s e rv e B a n k o f St. Louis D o lla r s (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter In itial Quarter 3-86 4-86 4-86 2.3 1-87 3.7 5 .2 2-87 3.9 4 .7 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 Billions of Dollars Annual Rates 1-91 3,733.6 3,781.2 4.2 3,820.3 3-87 3.9 4 .5 4 .2 4.1 4-87 4.5 5.0 4 .9 5.3 6 .6 1-88 4.6 5.0 5.0 5.3 5 .9 2-88 4.4 4 .8 4 .7 4.9 5.1 4.4 3 .6 3-88 4.2 4 .5 4 .4 4.4 4 .5 3.8 3.1 3,858.9 3,920.7 5.1 3,970.2 4,005.8 4,032.1 2.7 4-88 4.1 4 .3 4.1 4.1 4.1 3.5 3.0 2.7 2.7 1-89 4.0 4 .2 4.1 4.1 4.1 3.6 3 .2 3.0 3.2 3 .6 4,059.3 2-89 3.8 3 .9 3 .8 3.8 3.7 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.6 1.6 3-89 3.6 3 .7 3 .6 3.5 3.4 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.3 1.7 1.7 4-89 3.4 3 .4 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.2 1.0 0.3 1-90 3.2 3 .3 3.2 3.1 3.0 6 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.7 2-90 3.0 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.8 1.1 0.4 3-90 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.2 0.9 1.4 4-90 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.1 -0 .1 -1 .6 1-91 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.2 -0 .1 - 0 .2 - 0 .6 -1 .0 -2 .2 “2.8 2-91 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0 .1 -0 .4 -0 .6 -1 .3 -1 .2 0.4 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 4,095.7 4,112.2 4,129.7 4,133.2 4,150.6 4,155.1 4,170.0 4,153.4 4,124.1 4,128.4 Seco nd q u a rte r 1991 d a ta a re ad van ce e s t iv a t e s . P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is J u ly 2 6 , 1991 13 Implicit P r i c e Deflator P e rce n t C h a n g e F r o m P revio us Y e a r Seasonally A d ju ste d P e rce n t P e rce n t 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 P r e p a r e d Im p lic it P r ic e b y 1990 F e d e r a l 1991 R e s e r v e B a n k o f S t. L o u is D e fla to r (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Terainal Quarter In itial Quarter 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 1982 * 100 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 115.1 4-86 1.8 1-87 2.6 3.5 116.1 117.0 2-87 2.8 3 .3 3.1 3-87 3.0 3.4 3 .3 3 .5 4-87 2.7 3.0 2.8 2.6 118.0 118.5 1.7 119.3 1-88 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.2 2.7 2-88 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.1 2.9 3.6 4.4 3-88 3 .2 3.4 3 .4 3.4 3.4 4.0 4.6 4.7 4-88 3 .3 3.5 3 .5 3 .6 3 .6 4.1 4.6 4.7 4.7 1-89 3.4 3 .6 3 .6 3 .7 3 .7 4.1 4.4 4.4 4.3 3.9 2-89 3.4 3 .6 3 .6 3 .7 3.7 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.2 3.9 3 .9 3-89 3 .4 3.6 3 .6 3 .6 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.2 4-89 3.5 3.6 3 .6 3 .7 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.7 3 .7 3.5 3.8 1-90 3.6 3 .7 3 .7 3 .8 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.1 3.9 3 .9 3.9 4.3 4.8 2-90 3.6 3 .8 3 .8 3 .8 3 .9 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.4 4 .7 4.7 3-90 3.6 3.8 3 .8 3 .8 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.3 4.4 4.2 3.7 4-90 3.6 3.7 3 .7 3 .8 3 .8 3.9 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9 3 .8 3.8 4.0 4.0 3.7 3.2 2.8 1-91 3.7 3 .8 3 .8 3 .8 3 .9 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.2 4 .2 4.1 3 .9 4.0 5.2 2-91 3.7 3.8 3 .8 3 .9 3 .9 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.1 3 .9 4.0 4.6 3.9 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 The deflator is for Gross National Product. 120.6 122.0 123.4 124.6 125.8 126.8 128.0 129.5 131.0 132.2 133.1 134.8 136.1 Second quarter 1991 data are advance estimates. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis July 26, 1991 14 F in a l S a le s in 1982 D o lla r s (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) T e r a in a l Q u a rte r In itia l Quarter 3-86 4-66 1-87 2-67 3-67 4-67 1-66 2-66 3-86 4-66 1-69 2-69 3-69 4-69 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 B illio n s o f D o lla r s A n n u al R a te s 1-91 3,754.4 4-66 3.9 I 1-87 2.5 1.0 2-87 3.1 2.6 4.3 3-87 3.6 3.4 4.6 5.0 4-87 3.3 3.1 3 .9 3.7 2.3 1-86 3.9 3 .9 4.7 4.8 4 .7 7.1 2-68 4.1 4.1 4 .8 4.9 4 .8 6.1 5.1 3-88 3 .7 3 .7 4.1 4.1 3 .9 4.4 3.1 3,763.9 3,803.3 3,850.3 3,872.3 3,939.2 3,988.9 1.1 3,999.5 4,045.2 4-66 3.8 3.8 4.2 4.2 4.0 4.5 3 .6 2.8 4.6 1-69 3 .7 3.6 4.0 3.9 3 .8 4.1 3 .3 2.7 3 .5 2-89 3.5 3.4 3 .7 3 .7 3 .5 3 .7 3.0 2.4 2.9 1.7 3-89 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.5 3 .3 3.4 2.8 2.3 2.6 1.6 1.8 4-89 3 .2 3.1 3.3 3.2 3.0 3.1 2.5 2.1 2.3 1.5 1.4 4,069.6 2.4 4,086.6 4,105.1 0.9 4,114.4 4,152.8 1-90 3.2 3 .2 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.2 2.7 2.3 2.5 2.0 2.2 2.3 3.8 2-90 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.8 2.3 1.9 2.1 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.5 -0 .7 3-90 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.3 1.9 2.1 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.7 0.6 1.9 4-90 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.2 1.9 2 .0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 0.9 1.7 4,145.6 4,165.3 1.4 4,179.8 4,149.0 1-91 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 -0 .1 0.1 - 0 .8 -2 .9 2-91 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 -0 .1 0.1 -0 .5 -1 .4 0.1 3-66 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-86 2-68 3-88 1-89 2-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 4-86 3-89 4,149.6 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis July 26, 1991 P e rso n a l C o n s u m p tio n E x p e n d itu r e s in 19 82 D o lla r s (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Terainal Quarter 4-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-86 2-68 In itia l Quarter Annual Rates 4-68 1-89 2-89 3-89 3-86 2.2 B illions of Dollars 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2,477.8 1-87 1.4 0.7 2-87 2.5 2.6 4 .5 2,482.2 2,509.9 3-87 2.9 3.2 4.4 4.3 4-87 2.3 2.3 2.8 1.9 -0 .4 1-66 3.0 3 .2 3 .8 3 .6 3 .2 6 .9 2-66 3.0 3.1 3 .6 3.4 3.0 4.6 2.7 3-68 3.0 3.2 3 .6 3.4 3.1 4 .3 3.1 3 .5 4-66 3.1 3.2 3.6 3.4 3 .2 4.1 3 .2 3 .5 3 .5 2,536.6 2,534.2 2,576.8 2,594.1 2,616.4 2,636.6 1-69 2.7 2.8 3.1 2.9 2.6 3 .2 2.3 2.2 1.6 -0 .3 2-89 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.9 2.1 2.0 1.5 0.5 1.3 3-69 2.8 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.7 3.1 2.5 2.5 2.3 1.8 2.9 4.6 4-89 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.6 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.2 1.7 1.9 -0 .8 1-90 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.5 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.5 1.6 0.1 1.1 2-90 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.2 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.0 1.3 1.3 0.2 0.7 3-90 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.3 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.6 0.8 1.3 1.5 2.7 4-90 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.7 -0 .1 0.1 -0 .2 - 0 .4 -3 .4 1-91 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.4 -0 .3 -0 .2 -0 .5 - 0 .8 -2 .4 -1 .5 2-91 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 -0 .5 1.0 3.6 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-86 2-66 3-66 4-66 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2,636.7 2,645.3 2,675.3 2,669.9 2,677.3 0.2 2,678.8 2,696.8 2,673.6 2,663.7 2,687.2 Second q u a rte r 1991 d a ta a re ad van ce e s t iv a t e s . P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is J u ly 2 6 , 1991 15 R e s id e n tia l F ix e d In v e stm e n t in 1982 D o lla r s (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Terainal Quarter In itia l Quarter 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-68 3-88 4-86 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 Billions of Dollars Annual Rates 1-91 4-86 0.4 1-87 -4 .0 -8 .1 2-87 -1 .3 -2 .1 4.4 3-87 -2 .3 -3 .2 -0 .6 - 5 .3 4-87 -1 .7 -2 .2 -0 .2 -2 .4 0.6 1-88 -2 .6 - 3 .2 -1 .9 -3 .9 -3 .1 -6 .8 2-86 -1 .3 -1 .6 -0 .2 -1 .3 0.1 -0 .2 6.8 3-88 -1 .1 - 1 .3 -0 .1 -1 .0 0.2 0.0 3.6 0.4 4-86 -1 .0 -1 .2 -0 .1 -0 .9 0.0 -0 .1 2.2 0.0 -0.4 1-89 -1 .3 - 1 .5 -0 .6 -1 .3 -0 .6 -0 .8 0.7 -1 .2 -2.0 -3 .6 193.8 2-89 -2 .2 - 2 .5 -1 .6 - 2 .6 - 2 .2 -2 .6 -1 .8 -3 .8 -5 .2 -7 .5 -11.3 168.1 3-89 -2 .7 -3 .0 -2 .4 -3 .2 - 2 .9 -3 .4 -2 .8 -4 .6 -5 .8 -7 .6 -9 .5 -7 .6 4-89 -2 .9 -3 .2 -2 .7 -3 .4 - 3 .2 -3 .6 -3 .2 -4 .8 -5 .8 -7 .1 -8 .2 -6 .6 -5 .5 1-90 -1 .7 -1 .9 -1 .3 - 1 .8 - 1 .5 -1 .7 -1 .1 -2 .1 -2 .6 -3 .0 - 2 .8 0.1 4.3 2-90 -2 .4 - 2 .6 -2 .1 -2 .7 -2 .4 -2 .7 -2 .2 -3 .3 -3 .8 -4 .4 -4 .6 -2 .8 -1 .2 3-90 -3 .6 -3 .8 -3 .5 -4 .1 -4 .0 -4 .4 -4 .2 -5 .3 -6.0 -6 .8 -7 .3 -6 .5 -6 .2 -6 .4 -15.6 -19.8 173.0 4-90 -4 .7 - 5 .0 - 4 .8 - 5 .4 -5 .4 -5 .9 -5 .8 -7 .0 -7 .8 -8 .6 -9 .3 -9 .0 -9 .3 -10.2 -17.3 -20.2 -20.6 163.3 1-91 -6 .0 -6 .3 -6 .2 -6 .9 -7 .0 -7 .5 -7 .6 -8 .8 -9 .7 -10.7 -11.5 -1 1 .5 -12.2 -13.4 -19.4 -21.9 -23.0 -25.3 2-91 -5 .5 - 5 .8 -5 .6 -6 .2 -6 .3 -6 .8 -6 .8 -7 .8 -8 .5 -9 .3 -9 .9 -9 .8 -10.1 -10.8 -15.2 -16.2 -15.0 -12.0 3.7 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-86 2-68 3-86 4-88 1-89 2-89 1-90 1-91 200.3 196. f 196.2 195.5 195.8 192.4 195.6 195.8 195.6 184.4 3-89 181.8 15.1 186.3 1.1 -11.2 4-89 182.8 2-90 3-90 4-90 151.6 153.2 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis July 26, 1991 N o n r e s id e n tia l F ix e d In v e stm e n t in 1982 D o lla r s (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Terainal Quarter In itia l Quarter 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 4-86 4 .5 1-87 0.2 -4 .0 2-87 4.0 3 .8 12.1 3-87 7.1 8.0 14.5 17.0 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 B illions of Dollars Annual Rates 1-91 435.7 431.3 443.8 461.6 4-87 5.8 6.1 9 .7 8 .5 0 .6 1-86 6.7 7 .2 10.1 9 .5 5 .9 11.4 2-88 7.9 8 .5 11.2 11.0 9.1 13.5 15.7 3-88 7.1 7 .5 9 .6 9.1 7.1 9.4 8 .4 1.6 4-86 5.6 5 .7 7.1 6 .3 4 .3 5.3 3.3 -2 .4 -6 .3 1-89 5.9 6 .0 7 .4 6 .7 5.1 6.0 4.7 1.2 1.0 8 .9 2-89 6.0 6.1 7 .3 6 .7 5 .3 6.1 5.1 2.6 2.9 7.9 6 .9 3-89 6.0 6.1 7 .2 6 .7 5 .5 6.2 5.3 3.3 3.8 7.4 6 .6 6 .3 4-89 5.2 5 .3 6 .2 5 .6 4 .4 4 .9 4.0 2.1 2.2 4.5 3.0 1.2 1-90 5.2 5 .3 6.1 5.5 4 .4 4 .9 4.1 2.5 2.7 4 .6 3 .5 2.4 0.5 5.0 2-90 4.5 4 .5 5.2 4 .6 3 .6 3.9 3.1 1.6 1.6 3.0 1.8 0.6 -1 .3 0.0 462.3 475.0 492.6 494.6 486.6 497.1 505.5 513.3 -3 .8 508.4 514.6 508.4 -4 .7 3-90 4.8 4 .8 5.4 5.0 4.0 4.3 3.6 2.4 2.5 3.8 3.0 2.2 1.2 2.9 1.8 8.9 4-90 4.5 4 .5 5.1 4 .6 3 .7 4.0 3.3 2.1 2.2 3 .3 2.5 1.8 0.9 2.2 1.2 4.4 1-91 3.2 3.1 3 .6 3.1 2.1 2.2 1.5 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.0 -1 .0 -2 .2 -1 .8 -3 .5 -3 .0 -8 .5 -16.3 2-91 2.9 2.8 3.2 2.7 1.8 1.9 1.2 0.1 -0.1 0.6 -0 .3 -1 .2 -2 .2 -1 .9 -3 .2 -2 .9 -6 .5 -9 .6 -2 .3 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-86 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 519.3 519.4 0.1 496.8 493.9 Second q u a rte r 1991 d a ta a r e ad van ce e s t iv a t e s . P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is J u ly 2 6 , 1991 16 E x p o rts in 1982 D o lla r s (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Terainal Quarter In itial Quarter 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 B illions of Dollars Annual Rates 1-91 406.5 4-86 7.1 1-87 9.8 12.7 2-87 13.7 17.2 21.9 3-87 15.4 18.3 21.3 20.6 4-87 17.1 19.8 22.3 22.4 24.3 1-88 19.5 22.1 24.6 25.5 28.0 31.7 2-88 17.2 18.9 20.2 19.8 19.6 17.2 4.4 3-88 15.6 16.9 17.6 16.8 15.8 13.2 4.9 5.4 4-88 15.7 16.9 17.5 16.8 16.0 14.0 8.7 10.9 16.7 1-89 15.8 16.8 17.3 16.6 16.0 14.4 10.4 12.5 16.3 15.8 2-89 15.4 16.3 16.7 16.1 15.5 14.1 10.8 12.5 15.0 14.1 12.4 418.8 440.1 461.2 487.0 521.7 527.3 534.3 555.3 576.1 593.2 592.5 3-89 14.0 14.7 14.9 14.1 13.3 11.9 8.9 9.8 10.9 9.0 5.8 -0 .5 4-89 14.0 14.6 14.8 14.1 13.4 12.1 9.5 10.4 11.4 10.1 8.3 6.3 13.5 1-90 13.8 14.3 14.5 13.8 13.2 12.0 9.7 10.5 11.4 10.4 9.0 7.9 12.4 11.2 2-90 12.4 12.8 12.8 12.1 11.4 10.1 8.0 8.4 8.9 7.6 6.1 4.5 6.3 2.8 3-90 12.1 12.4 12.4 11.7 11.0 9.8 7.9 8.3 8.6 7.5 6.2 5.0 6.4 4.1 0.8 6 .9 4-90 12.0 12.3 12.3 11.6 11.0 9.9 8.2 8.5 8.9 8.0 6.9 6.0 7.3 5 .8 4.1 8.9 11.0 1-91 11.3 11.6 11.5 10.9 10.2 9.2 7.5 7.8 8.0 7.1 6.1 5.2 6.2 4 .7 3.2 6.0 5.6 0.5 2-91 10.9 11.1 11.1 10.4 9.8 8.8 7.2 7.4 7.6 6.8 5.8 5.0 5.8 4 .6 3.3 5.5 5.0 2.1 3 .7 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 611.6 628.1 620.1 -5 .0 630.5 647.2 648.0 653.9 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis July 26, 1991 Im p o rts in 1982 D o lla r s (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Terainal Quarter In itia l Quarter 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 B illions of Dollars Annual Rates 1-91 541.9 4-86 0.0 1-87 -0 .6 -1 .2 2-87 4.0 6.1 14.0 3-87 7.8 10.6 17.0 20.1 4-87 8.2 10.4 14.6 14.9 9.9 1-88 6.9 8.3 10.9 9.9 5.1 0.5 2-88 5.9 7.0 8.7 7.4 3.5 0.4 0.3 3-88 6.3 7 .3 8.8 7.8 4.9 3.2 4.7 9.2 4-88 7.0 7.9 9.3 8.5 6.3 5.5 7.2 10.8 12.4 1-89 6.0 6.7 7.8 6.9 4.8 3 .9 4.7 6.2 4.8 -2.3 2-89 6.6 7.3 8.3 7.6 5.9 5.3 6.3 7.8 7.4 5.0 12.8 540.2 558.2 584.4 598.3 599.0 599.5 612.8 631.0 627.3 646.5 3-89 6.6 7.2 8.1 7.5 6.0 5 .5 6.3 7.5 7.1 5.4 9.6 6.4 4-89 6.2 6.8 7.5 6.9 5.5 5.0 5.6 6.6 6.0 4.5 6.9 4.0 1.7 1-90 6.0 6.4 7.1 6.5 5.2 4.7 5.2 6.0 5.4 4.1 5.8 3.5 2.1 656.6 659.4 2.5 663.5 2-90 5.6 6.0 6.6 6.0 4.8 4 .3 4.7 5.3 4.8 3.5 4.7 2.8 1.6 1.6 0.7 3-90 5.7 6.1 6.7 6.1 5.0 4 .6 5.0 5.6 5.1 4.1 5.2 3.8 3.1 3 .6 4.1 4-90 4.6 4.9 5.3 4.7 3.6 3.1 3.4 3.7 3.1 2.0 2.6 1.0 -0 .1 -0 .5 -1 .5 -2 .6 -1 1 .8 1-91 3.8 4.0 4.4 3.8 2.7 2.1 2.3 2.5 1.8 0.7 1.1 -0 .5 -1 .6 -2 .2 -3 .4 -4 .7 -10.4 -8 .8 2-91 4.7 4.9 5.3 4.8 3.8 3.4 3.6 3.9 3.4 2.6 3.1 2.0 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.2 -0 .9 5.1 21.2 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 664.7 7 .6 677.0 656.0 641.0 672.6 Second q u a rte r 1991 d a ta a re ad van ce e s t iv a t e s . P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e se rve Bank o f S t . L o u is J u ly 2 6 , 1991 17 G overn m en t P u rc h a se s o f G oods and S e r v ic e s in 1982 D o lla r s (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Terainal Quarter In itial Quarter 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 4-86 5.8 1-87 2.8 -0 .2 2-87 0.7 -1 .7 -3 .2 3-87 1.9 0.7 1.1 5.5 4-87 2.7 2.0 2.7 5.7 6.0 1-88 0.6 -0 .4 -0 .4 0.5 -1 .9 -9 .2 2-88 1.0 0.2 0.3 1.2 -0 .2 -3 .2 3.3 3-88 0.4 -0 .4 -0 .4 0.2 -1 .1 -3 .4 -0 .3 -3 .8 4-88 2.0 1.5 1.8 2.6 2.1 1.1 4.8 5.5 15.7 1-89 1.4 1.0 1.1 1.7 1.1 0.2 2.7 2.5 5.8 -3 .3 2-89 1.7 1.3 1.4 2.0 1.5 0.8 3.0 2.9 5.2 0.3 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 Billions of Dollars Annual Rates 1-91 776.0 775.7 769.5 779.8 791.3 772.4 778.7 771.2 799.9 793.2 4.0 801.0 3-89 1.3 0.9 1.0 1.5 1.0 0.4 2.0 1.8 3.2 -0 .6 0.8 -2 .4 4-89 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.7 1.3 0.7 2.2 2.0 3.2 0.3 1.5 0.3 3.0 1-90 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.8 1.4 0.9 2.3 2.1 3.1 0.8 1.9 1.2 3.0 2.9 2-90 1.9 1.6 1.7 2.1 1.9 1.4 2.7 2.6 3.6 1.7 2.7 2.4 4.0 4.5 6.2 3-90 1.8 1.6 1.7 2.1 1.8 1.4 2.6 2.5 3.3 1.6 2.5 2.2 3.3 3.4 3.7 1.2 4-90 2.0 1.8 1.9 2.3 2.0 1.7 2.8 2.7 3.4 2.0 2.8 2.6 3.6 3.8 4.0 3.0 4.7 1-91 1.8 1 .6 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.5 2.4 2.3 3.0 1.6 2.3 2.0 2.8 2.7 2.7 1.5 1.7 -1 .3 2-91 1.8 1.6 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.5 2.4 2.3 2.9 1.7 2.2 2.0 2.7 2.6 2.6 1.7 1.8 0.4 2.1 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 796.2 802.2 807.9 820.2 822.7 832.3 829.6 833.9 Second quarter 1991 data are advance estimates. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis July 26, 1991 C o rp o ra te P r o fit s (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Terainal Quarter 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 3-86 -1 .7 4-86 -4 .0 -6 .3 1-87 0.4 1.5 9 .9 2-87 8.7 12.3 23.0 37.6 3-87 11.8 15.5 23.8 31.4 25.5 4-87 9.8 12.2 17.4 20.0 12.1 0.1 1-88 9.7 11.8 15.8 17.3 11.2 4.7 4-87 1-88 In itial Quarter Annual Rates 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-88 Billions of Dollars 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 279.7 275.2 281.8 305.2 323.0 323.1 9.5 330.5 2-88 9.3 11.0 14.2 15.1 10.0 5.3 8.0 6.6 3-88 8.1 9.3 11.8 12.1 7.6 3.5 4.7 2.4 -1 .7 4-88 9.1 10.4 12.7 13.1 9.5 6.5 8.2 7.8 8.4 1-89 5.7 6.5 8.0 7.8 4.1 0.9 1.0 -1 .0 -3 .4 -4 .2 -23.2 2-89 4.6 5 .2 6 .4 6.0 2.6 -0 .3 -0 .4 -2 .2 -4 .3 -5 .1 -15.5 3-89 2.7 3.1 4.0 3.4 0.2 -2 .6 -2 .9 -4 .9 -7 .0 -8 .3 -16.0 -12.2 -17.1 4-89 1.0 1.2 1.9 1.2 -1 .9 -4 .5 -5 .1 -7 .0 -9 .1 -1 0 .5 -16.8 -14.5 -18.1 -19.1 1-90 1.5 1.7 2.4 1.7 -1 .0 -3 .3 -3 .7 -5 .2 -6 .8 -7 .6 -12.3 -9 .3 -10.1 -6 .4 8.4 2-90 2.2 2.5 3.1 2.6 0.2 -1 .9 -2 .1 -3 .3 -4 .4 -4 .8 -8 .4 -5 .1 -4 .6 0.0 11.1 3-90 1.6 1.8 2.4 1.9 -0 .5 -2 .4 -2 .6 -3 .7 -4 .8 -5 .2 -8 .2 -5 .5 -5 .2 -2 .0 4 .5 4-90 0.6 0.8 1.2 0.7 -1 .6 -3 .4 -3 .7 -4 .8 -5 .8 -6 .3 -9 .1 -6 .9 -6 .9 -4 .7 -0 .7 -3 .5 -11.2 -14.8 1-91 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.4 -1 .7 -3 .4 -3 .7 -4 .7 -5 .6 -6 .0 -8 .5 -6 .5 -6 .4 -4 .5 -1 .3 -3 .6 -8 .8 -9 .4 -3 .7 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 335.8 334.4 19.5 349.6 327.3 -7 .0 321.4 306.7 290.9 296.8 13.9 2.6 306.6 -7 .5 300.7 288.9 286.2 Corporate profits with capital consuaption and inventory valuation adjustaents. P re p a re d by F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is J u ly 2 6 , 1991 18 G r o s s S a v i n g as a P e r c e n t of G N P Seasonally Adjusted P e rce n t P e rc e n t 2 0 - 20 18 18 P r i v a t .e 16 16 T o t a l 14 14 / N ^ 1 \ / \ < \ 4* V / \ V \ / V / — 10 12 > 12 r I ' T .......' .......... i 1 i saving e qua ls ... 1 ---------- | 1 private savin g (p e rs o n a l 1 , savin g plus j . 1 1 9 8 8 1 9 8 7 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 5 Total I 1 9 8 9 business saving) P r iv a te | i - - | 1 plus g o v e rn m e n t b y surplu s Fed e ra l | T - 10 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 0 P re p a re d G ro ss i o r deficit. R e s e rve B a n k o f St. Louis S a v in g (Compounded Annual Rales of Change) Terminal Quarter In itia l Quarter 2-86 3-86 -23.6 4-86 -15.5 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 B illions of Dollars Annual Rates 4-90 652.2 -6 .6 1-87 -3 .7 8.1 2-87 -12.3 -8 .2 3-87 -6 .0 -1 .0 4-87 1.7 1-88 3.3 641.2 25.0 678.0 -9 .0 -33.7 611.8 0.9 -9 .4 23.9 7 .7 11.5 7.4 36.7 50.7 8.6 12.0 8.9 28.5 30.9 13.7 645.5 715.2 738.5 2-88 3.2 7.7 10.3 7 .5 21.3 20.5 7.8 2.1 3-88 3.8 7 .8 10.0 7.7 18.7 17.4 8.1 5.4 8.7 4-88 3.8 7.4 9.3 7.3 16.2 14.7 7.2 5.1 6.6 4.5 1-89 4.4 7 .7 9.4 7.6 15.3 13.9 7.7 6.2 7.6 7.1 9.7 2-89 3.4 6.2 7.6 5.8 12.2 10.6 5.1 3.4 3.8 2.2 1.0 -7 .0 3-89 3.3 6.0 7.2 5.5 11.1 9.6 4.8 3.4 3.6 2.4 1.7 -2 .1 3.0 4-89 3.5 5.9 7.0 5.5 10.6 9.2 4.9 3 .7 3.9 3.0 2.6 0.3 4.2 5 .5 1-90 3.5 5.8 6.8 5.4 10.0 8.7 4.8 3.8 4.0 3.2 3.0 1.4 4.3 5.0 4 .4 2-90 3.7 5.8 6.8 5 .5 9.7 8.4 4.9 4.0 4.2 3.6 3.5 2.3 4.7 5 .3 5 .2 3-90 2.4 4.3 5.1 3.8 7.4 6.2 2.8 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.4 -1 .0 0.2 -0 .5 -2 .4 -5 .7 -16.0 4-90 2.4 4.2 4.9 3.7 7.1 5.9 2.8 1.9 1.9 1.2 0.7 -0 .5 0.6 0.2 -1 .1 -2 .9 -7 .0 2.9 ,1-91 2.8 4 .5 5.2 4.0 7.2 6.1 3.3 2.4 2.5 1.9 1.6 0.6 1.7 1.5 0.8 -0 .1 -2 .1 5.7 8.5 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 742.4 758.0 766.4 784.4 770.3 776.0 786.4 795.0 6.0 806.7 772.2 777.8 P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . J u ly 2 6 , 1991 19 793.9 L o u is Business Productivity a n d C o m p e n s a t i o n P e rcent C h a n g e F r o m P re vio us Y e a r S easonally A d ju ste d P e rc e n t P e rce n t 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 P re p a re d B u s in e s s S e c to r O u tp u t p e r by Federal 1991 R e serve B a n k o f St. Louis H our (Compounded Annual Rales of Change) Terminal Quarter In itia l Quarter 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1982 * 100 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 109.1 3-86 -2 .2 4-86 -0 .5 1.1 1-87 -0 .2 0.7 0.4 2-87 0.5 1.5 1.7 3.0 3-87 1.0 1.8 2.1 2.9 2.9 4-87 1.4 2.1 2.4 3.1 3.1 3.3 1-88 1.8 2.5 2.8 3.4 3 .5 3.8 4.4 2-88 1.4 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.4 2.2 1.6 -1 .1 3-88 1.6 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.3 1.9 0.7 2.5 4-88 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.0 -0 .1 0.4 -1 .7 1-89 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.7 -0 .2 0.1 -1 .1 -0 .4 109.4 109.5 110.3 111.1 112.0 113.2 112.9 113.6 113.1 113.0 113.0 2-89 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.6 -0 .1 0.1 -0 .7 -0 .2 0.0 3-89 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.3 -0 .4 -0 .2 -0 .9 -0 .6 -0 .7 -1 .4 4-89 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 -0 .7 -0 .6 -1 .2 -1 .1 -1 .3 -1 .9 -2 .5 1-90 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 -0 .1 -0 .7 -0 .6 -1 .1 -1 .0 -1 .2 -1 .5 -1 .6 -0 .7 2-90 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.0 -0 .5 -0 .4 -0 .9 -0 .7 -0 .8 -1 .0 -0 .8 0.0 0.7 3-90 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.0 -0 .4 -0 .3 -0 .7 -0 .5 -0 .5 -0 .6 -0 .4 0.2 0.7 0.7 4-90 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0 .1 -0 .5 -0 .4 -0 .7 -0 .6 -0 .6 -0 .7 -0 .6 -0 .1 0.1 -0 .2 -1 .1 1-91 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0 .4 -0 .4 -0 .6 -0 .5 -0 .5 -0 .6 -0 .5 -0 .1 0.1 -0 .1 -0 .5 0.0 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 112.6 111.9 111.7 111.9 112.1 111.8 111.8 P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is Ju n e 5 , 1991 20 N e t F e (C o m p o u n d e d Terminal Quarter d e r a Annual In i t i a l 3-86 2-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 l D Rates e b t of Change) B i l l i o n s oi Dollari Quarter 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 3-90 2-90 4-90 1,751.2 3-86 15.3 4-86 13.8 12.3 1-87 11.5 9.7 7.1 1,802.7 1,833.8 1,878.7 2-87 11.2 9.8 8.6 10.2 3-87 9.9 8.6 7.5 7 .6 5.2 4-87 9.8 8.7 7.9 8.1 7.1 9.1 1-88 9.7 8.8 8.2 8.4 7.9 9.3 9.4 1,902.6 1,944.4 1,988.7 2-88 9.4 8.5 7.9 8.1 7.6 8.4 8.1 6.8 3-88 9.2 8.5 8.0 8.1 7.7 8.4 8.1 7.5 8.3 4-88 8.8 8.1 7.6 7 .7 7.3 7.7 7.3 6.6 6.6 2,021.5 2,062.0 4.9 2,086.9 2,122.8 1-89 8.6 8.0 7.5 7 .6 7.2 7.6 7.3 6.7 6.7 6.0 7.1 2-89 8.4 7.8 7 .3 7.3 7.0 7.3 7.0 6.5 6.4 5.8 6.2 5.4 3-89 8.3 7 .8 7.4 7.4 7.1 7.3 7.1 6.7 6.7 6.3 6.8 6.6 4-89 8.3 7.8 7.4 7.5 7.2 7.4 7.2 6.9 7.0 6.7 7.2 7.2 8.1 8.4 1-90 8.8 8 .3 8.0 8.1 7.9 8.2 8.1 7.9 8.1 8.0 8.7 9.1 10.3 11.6 14.9 2-90 8.9 8 .5 8.2 8.3 8.2 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.5 8.5 9.1 9.5 10.6 11.5 13.1 11.3 3-90 9.1 8.8 8.5 8.6 8.5 8.8 8.8 8.7 8.9 9.0 9.6 10.0 11.0 11.8 12.9 11.9 12.6 4-90 9.3 9.0 8.8 8.9 8.8 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.3 9.4 10.0 10.5 11.3 12.0 13.0 12.3 12.8 13 - 1 1-91 9.3 9.0 8.8 8.9 8.9 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.3 9.4 9.9 10.3 11.0 11.6 12.2 11.6 11.6 11.2 9.3 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 2,150.7 2,191.7 7.8 2,236.3 Prepared Ju ly 30, F E D E R A L G O V E R N M E N T (b illio n s S e a s o n a l l y Federal Gross federal 1 9 8 7 1 9 8 8 1 9 8 9 1 9 9 0 19 91 debt by debt A d j u s t e d trusts by Fed e ra l 1991 2,449.8 Reserve 2,526.4 Bank 2,582.9 of S t. Louis D E B T E n d o f M o n t h T o t a l s Federal Net federal 2,378.3 d o lla rs ) held agencies and o f 2,315.4 by debt debt held Federal Reserve Banks Federal by debt held private investors Federal by debt held foreign investors M a r c h 2 2 4 8 .9 4 1 4 .5 1 8 3 3 .8 1 9 9 .4 1 6 2 8 .4 2 7 1 .7 J u n e 2 3 1 1 .6 4 3 2 .9 1 8 7 8 .7 2 1 1 .7 1 6 6 8 .1 2 7 8 . 0 S e p t e m b e r 2 3 6 2 .1 4 5 9 .0 1 9 0 2 .6 2 1 4 .5 1 6 9 0 .8 2 8 2 .3 D e c e m b e r 2 4 1 7 .2 4 7 3 .4 1 9 4 4 .4 2 1 7 .4 1 7 2 6 .2 3 0 1 .5 3 3 0 .5 M a r c h 2 4 8 7 .6 4 9 9 .3 1 9 9 8 .7 2 2 1 .3 1 7 6 3 .7 J u n e 2 5 5 0 .3 5 2 7 .9 2 0 2 1 .5 2 2 6 .2 1 7 9 7 .5 3 4 2 .0 S e p t e m b e r 2 6 1 5 .3 55 2 .1 2 0 6 2 .0 2 3 2 .5 1 8 3 2 .2 3 5 0 .5 D e c e m b e r 2 6 7 1 .0 5 8 5 .1 2 0 8 6 .9 2 3 2 .4 1 8 5 4 .8 3 6 3 .3 M a r c h 2 7 4 0 .9 6 1 8 .0 2 1 2 2 .8 2 3 2 .8 1 8 8 6 .4 3 7 3 .6 J u n e 2 8 0 2 .7 6 5 0 .0 2 1 5 0 .7 2 3 0 .2 1 9 2 0 .6 3 6 6 . 2 S e p t e m b e r 2 8 7 1 .8 6 7 8 .1 2 1 9 1 .7 2 2 4 .2 1 9 7 0 .1 4 0 0 .9 D e c e m b e r 2 9 3 8 .3 7 0 3 .6 2 2 3 6 .3 2 2 2 .4 2 0 1 1 . 8 3 9 2 .9 M a r c h 3 0 4 9 .0 7 3 5 .2 2 3 1 5 .4 2 2 3 .8 2 0 9 4 .2 3 8 2 .8 J u n e 3 1 4 6 .9 7 6 5 .1 2 3 7 8 .3 2 2 9 .6 2 1 5 4 . 7 3 9 0 .5 S e p t e m b e r 3 2 4 9 .5 7 9 7 .4 2 4 4 9 .8 2 3 6 .3 2 2 2 0 . 6 4 1 1 . 4 D e c e m b e r 3 3 5 1 .4 8 2 3 .4 2 5 2 6 .4 2 5 2 .7 2 2 8 3 . 7 4 2 4 . 3 M a r c h 3 4 6 1 .7 8 8 1 .8 2 5 8 2 .9 2 5 2 .3 2 3 3 7 . 2 4 2 8 .3 C o l u m n s m a y n o t a d d b e c a u s e e a c h c o m p o n e n t is s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d s e p a r a t e l y . G r o s s f e d e r a l d e b t e q u a l s d e b t h e l d b y a g e n c i e s a n d t r u s t s p l u s n e t f e d e r a l d e b t . N e t federal d e bt e q u a l s d e bt held b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e b a n k s p lu s d e b t held by pri vate investors ( wh i c h i n c l u d e s d e b t h e l d b y f o r e i g n i nvestors). S o u r c e s : data m a y be found Data have been in t h e Treasury Bulletin a n d a l s o in t h e F e d e r a l Reserve Bulletin-, r e v is e d to reflect c h a n g e d s e a s o n a l a d j u s t m e n t factors. 21 s ea s o n a l l y a dj us te d ser i es p r e p a r e d b y this B a nk . Original F E D E R A L (b illio n s o f d o lla rs , q u a r t e r l y G O V E R N M E N T to ta ls Q u arte rs at a n n u a l ra t e s ) accounts incom e adjusted Surplus Cyclically National Cyclically budget 1984 1 a d ju s t e d Expenditures Receipts National incom e B U D G E T S s e a s o n a l l y adjusted accounts incom e budget budget budget $ or d e f ic it(-) National Cyclically accounts adjusted budget budget 8 5 9 .8 $ - 1 5 4 . 6 - 1 1 5 . 1 2 7 2 1 .9 7 4 7 .9 8 8 5 .3 3 8 0 .4 - 1 6 3 . 4 - 1 3 2 . 5 3 7 2 8 .3 7 5 4 .4 90 1.1 8 9 5 .6 - 1 7 2 .8 - 1 4 1 . 2 4 7 4 2 .7 7 7 1 .0 9 3 0 .2 9 2 5 .3 - 1 8 7 .5 - 1 5 4 . 3 1 7 9 6 .5 8 1 9 .3 9 5 8 .2 9 5 3 .0 - 1 6 1 . 6 - 1 3 3 . 7 2 7 5 8 .7 7 8 0 .7 9 6 9 .9 9 6 4 .4 - 2 1 1 . 1 - 1 8 3 . 7 3 7 9 4 .1 8 1 1 .8 9 9 6 .7 9 9 1 .3 - 2 0 2 . 7 - 1 7 9 . 5 4 8 0 5 .3 8 2 2 .0 1 0 1 7 .5 1 0 1 2 .6 - 2 1 2 . 2 - 1 9 0 . 6 1986 1 8 1 0 .9 8 1 6 .4 1 0 0 6 .6 1 0 0 1 .4 - 1 9 5 . 6 - 1 8 5 . 0 2 8 1 5 .9 8 3 2 .2 1 0 5 1 .9 1 0 4 5 .2 - 2 3 6 . 0 - 2 1 3 . 0 3 8 3 0 .9 8 52.1 1 0 3 7 .7 1 0 3 2 .4 - 2 0 6 . 8 - 1 8 0 . 3 4 8 5 3 .8 8 7 5 .5 1 0 4 2 .8 1 0 3 8 .7 - 1 8 9 . 0 - 1 6 3 . 2 198 7 1 1 9 8 5 $ $ 7 1 1 .1 $ 7 4 4 .7 8 6 5 .6 8 6 2 .0 875.1 1 0 6 0 .0 1 0 5 7 .4 - 1 9 8 . 0 - 1 8 2 . 3 2 9 2 9 .8 9 38.1 10 61 .1 1 0 6 0 .4 - 1 3 1 . 3 - 1 2 2 . 3 3 9 2 3 .4 9 2 7 .2 1 0 6 4 .9 1 0 6 5 .6 - 1 4 1 . 6 - 1 3 8 . 4 4 9 4 0 .0 9 3 0 .0 1 1 0 1 .7 1 1 0 3 .0 - 1 6 1 .7 - 1 7 3 . 0 1988 1 9 4 3 .0 9 2 4 .9 1 0 9 6 .7 1 0 9 8 .0 - 1 5 3 . 7 - 1 7 3 . 1 2 9 7 2 .5 9 4 9 .5 1 1 0 9 .4 1 1 1 1 .4 - 1 3 6 . 9 - 1 6 1 . 9 3 9 7 6 .7 9 5 3 .0 1 0 9 6 .8 1 0 9 8 .2 - 1 2 0 . 1 - 1 4 5 . 2 4 9 9 7 .5 9 7 1 .4 1 1 5 3 .8 1 156.1 - 1 5 6 . 3 - 1 8 4 . 7 1989 1 1 0 4 5 .4 1 0 1 4 .3 1 1 7 8 .0 1 1 8 1 .0 - 1 3 2 . 6 - 1 6 6 . 7 2 1 0 6 2 .2 1 0 3 2 .2 1 1 8 4 .9 1 1 8 7 .3 - 1 2 2 . 7 - 1 5 5 . 1 3 1 0 48 .1 1 0 2 0 .2 1 1 7 9 .8 1 1 8 2 .0 - 1 3 1 . 7 - 1 6 1 . 8 4 1 0 5 5 .7 1 0 3 5 .4 1 2 0 5 .8 1 2 0 8 .2 - 1 5 0 . 1 - 1 7 2 . 8 1990 1 1 0 8 0 .6 1 0 6 1 .7 1 2 4 8 .8 1 2 5 2 .2 - 1 6 8 . 3 - 1 9 0 . 5 2 1 1 0 5 .8 1 0 9 3 .4 1 2 7 1 .7 1 2 7 5 .4 - 1 6 6 . 0 - 1 8 2 . 0 3 1 1 2 5 .9 1 1 1 6 .0 1 2 7 1 .6 1 2 7 3 .6 - 1 4 5 . 7 - 1 5 7 . 6 4 1 1 2 6 .5 1 132.1 1 3 1 0 .8 1 3 1 1 .2 - 1 8 4 . 3 - 1 7 9 . 1 1991 1 1 1 3 4 .5 1 1 6 3 .4 1 2 6 1 .4 1 2 5 3 .3 - 1 2 6 . 9 - N .A . N .A . 1 3 2 1 .3 N .A . N .A . 2 N .A . - not a va ila b le Fiscal years A ctu al 1983 Total 8 9 .9 N .A . 1984 1985 1986 Estim a tes 1987 1988 1989 1991 1990 1992 budget Receipts 600.6 $ Outlays Surplus o r defi ci t ( - ) $ 666.5 734.1 $ $ 769.1 $ income $ 909.0 $ 990.7 $ 1031.3 $ 1068.7 $ 1145.5 851.8 946.3 990.3 1003.8 1064.1 1144.1 1251.8 1350.9 1493.8 $ - 2 0 7 . 8 $ - 1 8 5 . 3 $ -2 1 2 .3 $ - 2 2 1 . 2 $ - 1 4 9 . 7 $ -1 5 5 .1 $ - 1 5 3 . 4 $ - 2 2 0 . 5 $ - 2 8 2 . 2 $ - 3 4 8 . 3 $ $ C a le n d a r National 854.1 808.3 years accounts budget Receipts 659.9 $ Expenditures Surplus o r defi ci tf - ) Cyclically adjusted Fiscal or d e f i c i t ( - ) years Estimates Cyclically S ource: refer to Office adjusted Office of $ 972.4 1052.9 1109.7 1071.9 1114.2 1187.2 1275.7 $ - 1 7 6 . 0 $■- 1 6 9 . 6 $ -1 9 6 .9 $ - 2 0 6 .9 $ -1 5 8 .2 $ - 1 4 1 . 7 $ - 1 3 4 . 3 $ - 1 6 6 . 0 $ $ $ the outlays from 913.8 $ 1034.8 725.8 $ budget 827.9 $ 985.6 of 917.6 $ $ 949.7 1029.4 1071.6 1115.9 - 9 7 . 7 $ - 1 3 5 . 8 $ - 1 7 1 . 9 $ - 1 8 5 . 4 $ - 1 5 4 . 0 $ - 1 6 6 . 2 year federal data are M a n a g e m e n t and 844.1 $ 980.3 which runs entities th at M a n a g e m e n t budget 808.5 $ 890.3 budget include 754.5 $ 823.5 Expenditures Total 788.7 $ 895.6 budget Receipts Surplus 726.0 $ 835.9 and based from are B u d g e t ’s on Budget a and 6 October S ep tem b e r $ - 1 6 4 . 1 1100.8 1278.1 $ - 1 7 7 . 3 30. off-budget. M id-Session percent U.S. 1 through 1025.5 1189.6 rate Review of of th e F Y 1991 B udget (July 15, 1991). unem ploym ent. Departm ent of C o m m e r c e . Prepared 22 by Federal Reserve B a nk of St. Louis G o v e r n m e n t D e f i c i t ( - ) / S u r p l u s ( +■) Seasonally Adjusted Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars - 6 0 6 0 T o t < □I / \ / - 1 1 0 - 1 1 0 / V ✓ \ \ f ' V 1 / \ F e d e r a l ^ ■ - 1 6 0 V \ / h r ------------------- — - * t \ v V V / % 1 ' 1----------------- / \ 1 \ # I - 1 6 0 # V s ' ....... ' \ 4 *_ .............. 41 /.........N.. - 2 1 0 - 2 1 0 / v \ / Y - 2 6 0 1 1 1 1 9 8 5 National 1 1 - T 1 9 8 6 in c o m e a c c o u n ts 1 -I 1 1 1 9 8 7 1 9 8 8 e d e r a l D e f e (C o m p o u n d e d Te rn in a l Quarter n s e Annual I n i t i a l 4-86 4-86 -7 .9 1-87 0.9 10.5 1-87 2-87 r I . , ... ! , » ........... ' 1 9 8 9 I 1 9 9 0 - r .......... I - 2 6 0 1 9 9 1 basis F 3-86 ... 1 3-87 4~87 1-88 2-88 3-88 E x p Rates e n P re p a re d by d s i t u r e Fe d e ra l R e s e rve B a n k 1-89 St. Louis of Change) Quarter 4-88 of B illio n s 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2 “90 3-90 4-90 of D o llars Annual Rates 1-91 280.7 287.8 2-87 3.5 9.6 8.8 3-87 5.0 9.6 9.2 4-87 2.6 5 .5 3.8 1.4 "6.1 1-88 2.3 4 .5 3.1 1.2 -2 .7 0.8 2-88 2.1 3.9 2.6 1.1 -1 .6 0.7 0.7 3-88 1.6 3.0 1*8 0.4 -1 .7 -0 .2 -0 .7 4-88 2.0 3.3 2.3 1.3 -0 .3 1.2 1.4 1.7 5.7 1-89 1.6 2.7 1.8 0.8 -0 .6 0.6 0.5 0.5 1.8 -1 .9 2-89 1.8 2.8 2,0 1.1 0.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 2.3 0.7 3.3 3-89 2.3 3.2 2.5 1.9 0.9 2.0 2.2 2.5 3.7 3.0 5.5 7.8 4-89 1.3 2.2 1 »4 0.7 -0 .2 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.0 -0 .1 0.4 -0 .9 -9 .0 293.9 9.6 300.7 296.0 296.6 297.1 -2 .1 295.5 299.6 298.2 300.6 306.3 299.2 1-90 2.0 2.8 2.2 1.6 0.9 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.6 2.0 3.0 2.9 0.6 11.1 2-90 2.1 2.8 2.3 1.7 1.1 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.7 2.2 3.0 3.0 1.4 7.1 3.2 3-90 2.2 2.9 2,4 1.9 1.3 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.9 2.5 3.2 3.2 2.1 6.0 3 .5 3.9 4-90 3.0 3 .7 3.3 2.9 2 .A 3.2 3.4 3.7 4.3 4.2 5.0 5.3 4.9 8.6 7 .8 10.2 16.8 1-91 3.3 4,0 3.6 3.2 2.8 3.5 3.7 4.0 4.7 4.6 5.4 5.7 5.3 8-5 7.8 9.4 12.3 7.9 2-91 2.7 3.3 2.9 2.6 2.1 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.6 3.3 3.9 4.0 3.5 5.7 4.7 5.1 5,5 0.2 -6 .9 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 307.2 309.6 312.6 325.0 331.2 P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f St. J uly 26 1991 r 23 325.3 Louis F e d e r a l N o n d e (C om pounded Te ra in a l Quarter f e I n it ia l 3-86 4-86 5.9 1-87 5.7 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 n s e An n u a l E Rates x p e n d i t u r e s of Change) Quarter 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 B illio n s of Dollars Annual Rates 1-91 762.1 5.4 772.2 2-87 2.8 1.3 -2 .6 3-87 1.7 0.4 -2 .1 -1 .6 4-87 5.8 5.7 5.8 10.3 23.6 1-88 4.3 4.0 3.6 5.8 9.6 -2 .8 2-88 4.6 4.3 4.1 5.9 8.5 1.6 6.2 3-88 3.3 2.9 2.5 3.5 4.9 -0 .7 0.3 -5 .3 4-88 5.9 5.9 5.9 7.4 9.3 6.0 9.1 10.6 767.2 764.2 805.7 800.1 812.3 801.3 854.2 29.1 879.8 1-89 6.5 6.6 6.7 8.1 9.8 7.3 10.0 11.2 20.6 12.5 2-89 6.1 6.1 6.2 7.4 8.7 6.4 8.3 8.9 14.0 7.2 2.1 3-89 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.9 6.9 4.7 6.0 6.0 9.0 3.0 -1 .4 -4 .8 4-89 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.9 7.9 6.1 7.4 7.6 10.4 6.1 4.1 5.1 16.0 1-90 6.7 6.7 6.8 7.7 8.7 7.2 8.5 8.8 11.4 8.1 7.0 8.7 16.2 16.4 2-90 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.8 8.7 7.4 8.5 8.8 11.0 8.3 7.4 8.8 13.7 12.6 9.0 3-90 6.3 6.3 6.4 7.1 7.9 6.5 7.5 7.7 9.4 6.8 5.9 6.7 9.8 7.8 3.7 -1 .3 4-90 6.6 6.6 6.7 7.4 8.1 7.0 7.9 8.1 9.6 7.4 6.7 7.5 10.2 8.7 6.3 5.0 11.7 1-91 4.9 4.8 4.8 5.3 5.8 4.5 5.2 5.1 6.1 3.9 2.8 2.9 4.3 2.1 -1 .2 -4 .4 -5 .9 -20.7 2-91 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.7 7.3 6.2 7.0 7.0 8.2 6.3 5.7 6.1 7.8 6.5 4.6 3.5 5.2 2.1 31.4 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 884.3 873.5 906.6 941.6 962.1 959.0 985.8 930.2 P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k of St. J u l y 26, 1 991 24 996.0 Louis
@FedFRASER