Full text of National Economic Trends : August 1971
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nflTionflL Economic t r e r d s PREPARED M O N T H E N D IN G : ju iy 31f BY 1971 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. L O U IS RELEASED: August 25, 1971 Total spending and production have accelerated since late last year, signifying recovery from the 1969-70 recession. Total spending increased at about an 8 per cent annual rate between the third quarter of 1970 and the second quarter of 1971, compared with a 4.6 per cent increase in the previous year. Retail sales have be e n particularly strong, advanc ing at an 18 per cent annual rate from December 1970 to June 1971, compared with a 3.6 per cent increase during 1970. Accompanying accelerated growth in total spending, real product rose at a 2.5 per cent annual rate from the third quarter of last year to the second quarter of 1971, compared with a 0.6 per cent decrease in the preceding year. Industrial production rose at a 2.3 per cent annual rate from December 1970 to July 1971, after declining at a 5.3 per cent rate in the previous fifteen months. Employment trends, which usually lag movements in spending and production, have been little changed in recent months. Unemployment has averaged about 6 per cent of the labor force in 1971 after rising from 3.6 per cent in December 1969 to 6.2 per cent in December 1970. Payroll employment has been essentially unchanged since last December. Price trends have bee n mixed in 1971. Wholesale prices of industrial commodities have risen more rapidly since late last year than during 1970, rising at a 4.3 per cent annual rate between December 1970 and July 1971, compared with a 3.6 per cent increase during 1970. Consumer prices, on the other hand, advanced at a 3.9 per cent annual rate from December 1970 to July 1971, compared with a 5.5 per cent increase during 1970. 2 TOTAL C I V I L I A N EMPLOYMENT COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES Qf CHANGE TERMINAL MONTH 1 2- 69 ? - 7f i - 70 4 - 70 70 1- 70 3 r * 2-70 0 -2 3- 7 0 1, ? 0.2 4-70 0. .6 —0 .3 5-70 - 0 ,4 -1 - o .9 6-7 p - 1 .1 -1 ,9 - 1 •H - 3 ■4 - 4 ,4 -4 7-70 - o .3 - 0 .9 - 0 .6 -? - Ì ■6 -f, 6-70 7 - 70 f t - 70 2-71 3- 7 1 4- 7 1 5- 7 1 6- 7 1 78.969 s o .HI X -1 7 8 . 886 S. -4 78. 601 78.299 4 78. 574 s. .9 - r .7 -1 .4 - 1 .■4 -0, 1 ,. 6 - 1 , .0 - 0 . ,4 - n, . 9 - n .7 - 1 ■? -1 .? - f h ,5 n ,9 - n . ,7 -n.4 10 - 70 - o . ,1 -n,,4 -0 .6 - 0 ,5 0,. 3 1,,5 n,.6 1.4 .2 1- 71 78. 781 ? - J . .4 - n , ”1 1 2 - 70 7 8 . 943 8-70 1 1- 70 9- 7Ü 1C—70 1H - 7 0 s 9-70 12- 7P THOUSANDS OF PERSONS I N I T I A I . MONTH 1 - 70 78 . 508 - 0 . 0 % 3«, 3 V 7 8 . 479 78. 691 s - n. *6 . - 0 . 4 — •1•H - n .7 -ft.. 1 n, .ft -0., 1 0-2 0., *> -.li. 7 -r - o . .3 - n.. Ì n,,4 - 0 . ,3 -0.2 - fl. , 1 ft.,7 1 .1 1,,5 0-9 2.4 n., ? —0 . A -0.1 0 •6 -4.9 -n, 0 —il - 7 -0- \ 0., ] -2.Q 0.0 0.5 a,. 9 -r , 78 . 5 5 0 -1.7 78 . 46* ...X 1-71 ,2 - 0 , ,1 o.,1 - 0 .? - n ,0 2-71 - 0 , .2 - o , .5 ,3 - o •6 -.v - n . ,1 n, ,5 -n.. 1 0. 1 -4-71 -n., \ - o , .5 -r> , 4 ■6 - n .IS -ft, , ? n.,3 -n., ? -fi. 1 4-71 - o ..u 0.4 n. ,*> 5—71 o. n.ft 0.i9 l.G 1., s ii.4 2.7 ... 6—71 -Cl.»? -0.1 - n . ,1 -0.2 -0.. 1 -1.1 -G.4 -0.2 -1.9 -7.6 7-71 o „.2 0.7 1.. 0 Û. 2 1. 2 1. 8 1. 2 -0.2 7.9 9- 7 0 10—70 I 1- 70 1 2 - 7 0 1- 7 i 2-71 3-7Ì 4—71 5-71 6-71 Cf,,1 n,.6 .'I w.. 1 c,,5 n,.9 n 1.6 -0« ■5 - Oi ,*) c, -r... 4 0,. 1 1- 70 .1 i - 70 2- 7C 0 1 12- 69 .1 o. , ? - 0, n,.4 1 o.,n 1, —r. ,2 -«v -J O -o,. ? n ,5 0« -n. a..ft 0,.5 fj.6 6-70 7-70 8- 7Ü 0..7 0.4 6. 78.864 \ - 0 . ft 78. 537 -0.9 78. 475 1.2 78. 698 . 78. 961 \ 78 . 443 1 78. 941 I N I T I A L MONTH PREPARED 3Y FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUI S PAYROLL fcMPLOYMENT — AUGUST 6* 1971 COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE_______________________________________________________________ T ERMINAL__________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L MONTH_____________________________________________________________________T HOUSANDS MONTH OF PERSONS 12-69 1-70 1-70 2-70 3-70 4-7^ 5-70 6-7 0 7-70 3-70 9-7C 10-70 11-70 12-70 1-71 2-71 3-71 4-71 5-71 6-71 70,992 2.6 71.135 2-70 2.5 2.4 3-70 ¿.4 2.3 2.1 4-70 1.4 l.G 0.2 71.256 1 71,163 -1.6 70.852 5-70 0. G — 0 . fe -1.6 -3.4 -5.1 6— 7 G -G. 7 -1.3 -2.2 -3.6 -4. 6 7-70 -ü .7 -1.3 -2.C -3.0 -3.4 -2.6 -l.G 70.546 S-70 -0.9 -1.4 -2.0 -2.3 -3.1 -2.5 -1.6 70.414 9-70 70.603 -1 .0 -1.5 -2.0 -2.1 -1.4 -0.4 -0. 1 10-7 C -1.1 -1.5 -2.0 -2.6 -2.7 -2.3 -1.8 —2 1 1-7C -1.2 -1.5 -2.C -2.5 -2.6 -2.2 -1.8 1 2 - 7 ii - -1.1 -1.4 -l.H - 1- H -1.3 -0.8 -Û.5 -0.7 -1.0 -l.u -0.4 -1.0 -1 . ! -0.5 -0.4 —0 . 3 1-71 g .a -0.2 2-71 -0.3 -0.5 - A. 3 1-71 -0.2 -0.4 -C .6 4-71 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.7 —0 . 6 aù -1.9 70.531 p .; -2.0 70,182 -1.9 -3.7 70.085 -1.6 -C.5 -1.3 1.0 0.3 O.B 0.5 2.7 3.Ö > 5.Ó 6, -0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 G. 6 0.4 1.8 2.9 2,, 5 1.6 2.5 2, . 0 0.1 1.2 -C .2 0.2 0.4 C.7 0.5 1.6 2.2 1., 9 0.5 1.2 * 70.303 V 70,652 70.590 70.659 1.3 70.735 \ 5-71 Û.O -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 0.4 0.6 ü. 0 C.Ö 1.7 2.3 2, ■0 1.0 1.7 1.9 6 — 71 -.3.2 -0.3 - i.5 -0.7 -0.6 -G . 3 0.1 0.2 •^.4 G .2 1.0 1.4 1, ifî -0.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.7 -4.0 7— 71 - T . 3 -0.5 -.i. 7 -o.a 1 -0 .« -0.5 -C.2 —0. 1 u.l 0.5 0.8 0.. 4 -û .6 —0 . 5 —0.9 -1.6 -3.6 12-69 1— 7 0 2-70 3- 70 5-70 6-70 7-70 8- 70 9 - 7 0 10 - 70 11- 70 12 - 70 1- 71 2-71 3- 71 4- 71 5- 7 1 4-70 -0.1 70.885 \ 70.647 70.456 6- 71 I N I T I A L MONTH PREPAREO BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO U IS AUGUST 6 » 1971 3 EMPLOYMENT RATIO RATIO SCALE MILLIONS 1963 OF PERSONS 1964 1965 SEASONALLY 1966 MILLIONS ADJUSTED 1967 1968 1969 SOURCEt PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR P ER I O D S LATEST DATA PLOTTED« 1970 OF SCALE PERSONS 197 1 U. S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR fNDI CATED. JULY P R E L I MI N A R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. l OUIS 4 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION COMPCUNDEO ANNUAL RATES OP CHANGE 100 1- 70 -24.1 2- 70 -9.9 6.9 3- 70 -3.1 1.1 -4.4 4- 70 -6.4 0. 4 -2.7 -1.1 VI» 1 -»1 o TfcRMINAL_________________________________________ I______________________ I N I T I A L MONTH__________________________________________________________________1967 « MONTH 12- 69 1- 71 2- 71 3- 71 4- 71 5- 71 6- 7 1 1- 70 2- 70 3- 70 4- 70 7- 70 5- 70 6- 70 8- 70 9- 70 10- 70 11- 70 12- 70 107. 4 -5.? 0. 3 -1.3 -0.6 6- 7 0 -4.1 >>.4 - 1 .1 i- .O 0. 6 1.1 7- 70 -3.7 - 1 .1 -n.3 0. 0 0.0 -1.1 8- 70 - A. 3 -0. 9 -0.2 0.0 0.0 —0 . 6 9- 70 -4.1 -1.3 -2.4 -2.0 _ -2.2 -2.8 -4.0 1C-7C -6.7 -4.6 —6 . 1 -6.9 - 8 . 3 -10.5 - 1 3 . A -1C.4 -27.4 103. 7 11- 7C -7.? -5.3 -6.-Ì -7.7 - 8 . 9 - 1 0 . 8 - 1 3 . 1 - 1 7 . 0 - 20.1 - 1 2 . 0 102. 6 12- 70 -4.8 -¿.A - *. M -3.7 -4.0 -4.6 -5.5 -6.4 -7.9 -6.9 5. 3 2f.l 1-71 -3.9 -2.0 -2.7 -2.6 -2.7 -3.1 -3.6 -4.1 -4,d -3.3 0. 3 16.9 2- 71 -4.2 -1.4 -2.0 -I.a -1.9 -2.1 -2.5 -2.7 -3.1 -1.6 6. 2 13.1 3-71 -3.2 -i.5 -2.1 -?.r -2.0 -2.2 -2.6 -2.8 -3.2 -1.9 4.? 8. 7 4- 71 - 2.! > -l.? -1.2 -1.3 -1.6 -1.6 -1.8 -0.5 4. 9 8. 6 5- 71 -1.9 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 —C . A -0.6 0.7 5. 5 8. 9 6- 71 4. 7 7. 3 4.4 7- 71 3. 5. 0 :.2 108. 0 . - 0, 9. . - i . 4 107. 6 107. 5 107. 5 0.0 107. 6 107. 5 107. 5 o.c 106. 5 - 5 . 5 - 10 .6 p N , 1 ' 8. 3 104. 6 M 105. 8 4.7 105. 3 5.8 + 0 ^9 / l.i - 3.4 3. 5 2.3 8. 3 4.9 4.6 8. 8 105. 5 ^ ~ i 106. 2 - i.3 - '-l •7 -1.9 -0.3 -o.a -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.7 -0.6 -0.7 0. 5 3.7 3. 2 5. 4 4.0 -1.1 -2.1 -0.9 -1.3 -1.1 -1.1 -1.2 -1.4 -1.4 -1.5 -0.6 2. 3 1. 3 0.5 1. 4 -0.8 -5.5 -9.6 12- 69 1- 70 2-7v, 3- 70 4- 70 5- 70 6- 70 7- 70 8- 70 9- 70 10- 70 11- 7C 12- 7C 1- 71 2- 71 3- 71 4- 71 5- 71 6- 71 9. 4 107. 0 106. 4P I 1 0 6 « OP I N I T I A L MONTH p- prflhinahy PRFPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS AUGUST 16, IV71 5 INDUSTRIAL RATIO PRODUCTION SCALE 1967-100 RATIO SEASONALLY ADJUSTED PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR P E R I O D S LATEST DATA PLOTTED« SCALE 1967-100 I ND I C A T E D . JULY P R E L I M I N A R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 6 R ETA IL SALES TERMINAL MONTH 11- 69 12- 69 12- 69 MILLIONS OF DOLLARS I N I T I A L MONTH 1- 70 2- 70 3- 70 4- 7 0 5- 70 6- 7 0 7- 70 8- 7 0 9 - 7 0 10- 70 11- 70 12- 70 1- 71 2- 71 3- 71 4 - 71 5- 71 29, 419 -2. 1 29, 570 1- 70 2. 0 6. 3 2- 70 7. 1 12. 0 18. 0 3- 70 3. 4 5. 3 4. 8 -6.9 r \ 4—70 8. 9 11. 8 13. 7 11.7 34 . 0 «5-70 7. 1 9. 1 9. 8 7. 1 15.0 - 1* 3 X 6- 70 6. 2 7. 6 7.9 5. 5 10. 0 -0.4 29, 980 29, 801 V 'v 3 0 , 5 3 6 ____ 30, 502 , 0.6 30, 518 30, 729 7—7 Ü 6.5 7.8 8.0 6. 1 9.6 2. 6 4.5 8. 6 8- 70 6.0 7.0 7.1 5. 4 8.1 2. 4 3. 7 5.3 2. 0 9- 70 5. 8 6.7 6.7 5. 2 7. 4 2. 8 3. 8 4.9 3. 1 1C-70 3. 9 4.6 4.4 2.8 4.3 -0.0 0. 3 0.2 -2.5 - 4 . 7 -12.8 3 0 , 5 3 4 ______ 30, 208 30, 781 4. 1 30, 885 Aft/ V Ö .Ö / 0 11- 70 2. 5 2.9 2. 6 i.O 2. 1 -1.8 -1.9 -2.4 -5.0 - 7 . 2 -12.5 -12.1 12- 70 3. 2 3. 6 3. 4 2.0 3. 1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -1.9 -2.9 -5.1 -1.0 1-71 4. 9 5. 4 5. * 4.3 5. 5 2.7 3. 2 3. 6 2. 8 2. 9 2.6 8. 4 20.3 3 0 .0 ^ ^ 2- 71 5. 7 6.3 6. 3 5. 4 6.6 4.2 4.8 5. 4 4. 9 5.4 5. 6 10. 8 19. 7 24. 1 18. 5 7. 0 8.3 6. 2 7. 0 7.7 7. 6 8. 4 9. 1 14. 2 21. 9 25. 6 23.4 28. 6 8. 1 9.4 7.6 8. 4 9.2 9.3 10. 2 11.1 15. 7 22. 2 25. 1 23 . 5 26. 1 3- 71 7.0 7.7 7. 8 4- 71 7. 9 8.6 8. 8 30, 481 31, 154 31, 597 32, 267______ 32, 844 23. 7 3 2 , 692P 5- 71 1. 2 7. 7 7. 8 7.2 8. 3 6.5 7. 2 7. 8 7. 7 8. 4 8. 9 12. 4 17. 1 18. 3 15. 6 14. 6 8. 2 6- 71 7. 6 8. 2 8. 3 7. 7 8. 8 7. 2 7.9 8.5 8. 5 9.1 9. 7 12. 9 17. 0 18. 0 15. 7 15.1 10. 9 5.0 11- 69 12- 69 1- 70 2- 70 3- 70 4- 7 0 5- 70 6-70 7-70 8- 70 9 - 7 0 10- 70 11- 70 12- 70 1-71 2- 71 3- 71 4- 7 1 16. 5 ^ 33, H O P 5- 71 I N I T I A L MONTH P- P R E L I M I N A R Y PERSONAL INCOME COMPOUNDED AiWJAL RATES OF CHANGE PREPAREO BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS AUGUST I I , 1971 BI LLI ONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES I N I T I A L MONTH MONTH 12- 69 2-7T- 3- 70 *- 70 5- 70 6- 70 7- 70 9- 70 1 W 0 _ 11- 70 12- 70 1- 71 2- 71 3- 71 4- 71 5- 71 6- 71 780. 1 5. 7 783. 5 2- 70 5. 5 5. 4 3- 70 6. 3 7.4. 4- 70 12. 7 15.1 2". 3 32. 2 5- 70 8. 1 8. 7 9. 8 lO. ' i — 8. 6 6.7 7.;< 6. 2 -4.3 -.•.9 ó. 6 6.8 -1.3 2. 5 6. 0 6. 6 0. 4 3. 5 5. 8 5. 7 6- 70 8- 70 6.5 7- 70 789. 4 80 8. 0 802. 0 8 0 1. 4 805. 3 80 9. 0 8- 70 6. 3 9- 70 5. 6 6. * 7. 0 6.6 2. 1 4. 9 6. 9 7.4 9. 1 10- 70 5. 8 5. 8 5. 8 5. 3 1.4 3. 5 4.6 4.2 3. 5 -1.9 11-7C 5. 5 5. 5 b 1. 0 1.0 3. 4 4. 3 3.9 3.4 0. 6 3. 1 12- 70 5. 7 : 5. 1 3. 3 5. 4 7.4 4. 1 4.0 4.7 4. 5 3. 0 5. 5 7. 9 1-71 6.3 6. 4 6. 5 6.2 3. 6 .*.3 6.2 6.2 6. 3 5. 7 3. 3 11. 0 14.1 2-71 6. 2 6.3 6. 3 o. 1 3.8 5. 2 6. 0 6.0 6. 1 5. 5 7. 4 8.9 9. 3 3-71 6.5 6.5 6. h 6. 4 4-71 6.5 6. i> ft . 6 6. 4 6. 7 5-71 6. 6 6.6 6-71 7. ) a.T 7- 71 6.6 6*6 : l?-69 1-7, 6. 7 . 2- 7 J 814. 9 813. 6 815. 7 820. 9 830. 0 4.7 833. 2 5. 7 6. 4 6. 5_ 6. 6 _ 6. 2 7. 9 9. 1 9.5 7.2 . 9. 8 4.5 5. 8 6. 5 6.5 6. 6 6.3 7.7 8.7 8.8 7.1 8.3 6. 5 4. 8 6.0 6.7 6.8 6. 5 7. 8 8.6 8. 7 7. 4 4.1 6.6 7. 8 8. 6 8.8 9. 1 'l.l lU.6 11.7 12. 3 12. 0 13. 9 15, 3 19.7 6. 6 5. 0 6. 1 6.6 6.7 6 6. 5 7.5 8. 1 8. 1 7. 1 7.6 7. 1 7. 1 Ì-7 > '♦— 70 5- 70 6- 7 0 7-70 9- 7 0 10- 70 11- 70 12- 70 1-71 2- 71 3- 71 4- 71 3- 70 839. 7 CD * -r* 1- 70 1- 70 6. 9 8 . 3 _ 7. 6 8. 3 850. 0 32. 4 8 7 0 . IP 6.6 -14.2 5- 71 8 5 9 . IP 6- 71 I N I T I A L MONTH P - PWR m iN A ^Y PPEPAREU BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS AUGUST 19, 1971 7 RETAIL RATIO SALES SCALE BILLIONS OF 1963 RATIO D OLLARS 1964 BILLIONS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 SOURCE* P E R C E N T A G ES ARE ANNU AL RAT ES OF CHA NG E FOR PE RI OD S L ATE ST DA TA PLOTTED« OF 1970 SCALE DOLLARS 1971 U.S. D E P A R T M E N T OF CO M M E R C E INDICATED. JUNE PR EL I M I N A R Y P R E P AR ED BY FED ER AL R E S ER VE BA NK OF ST. LOU IS PERSONAL RATIO SCALE TRILLIONS OF D O L L A R S INCOME RATIO MONTHLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCEt P E R C E N T A G E S ARE ANN UAL RA TES OF CHA NG E FOR PER IO DS TRILLIONS OF SCALE DOLLARS U.S. D E P A R T M E N T OF CO MM E R C E INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED« JULY PRELIMINARY P R E P AR ED BY FED ER AL RE SE RVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 8 G » O S S N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S UF C H A N G E TFRMINAl QUARTEP INITIAL ? —6 6 1-6/ 2-67 3-67 4-67 2-63 1-68 3-68 4-6 8 2-69 1-69 3-691 4-69 1-70 2-70 4-70 3-70 1-71 9.1 7 7 0 .7 5 ,0 1.9 5 .1 3 .6 5.3 3 -6 7 6.0 5 .3 7 .0 8.6 4 -6 7 6 .3 5 .9 7 .2 8.2 7. 7 L-^ fl 6.8 6 .5 7 .7 8.5 8.4 9.2 2-6 8 7 .5 7.4 8.5 9.3 9.5 10.4 11.7 3 -6 8 7 ,6 7.5 8.5 9.1 9.3 9.8 10.1 4 -6 8 7 .5 7.5 8.3 8.8 8.8 9.1 9.1 7.8 7.0 1-6 9 7 .5 7 .5 8.2 8.6 8.6 8.8 8.7 7.7 7.3 7.5 2 -6 9 7 .5 7.4 8.1 8.4 8.4 8.5 8.3 7.5 7.2 7.2 1 2 -6 7 7 7 4 .4 7 8 4 .5 8 0 0 .9 8 15 .9 8 3 4 .0 8 5 7.4 8.6 8 7 5 .2 8 9 0 .2 9 0 6 .4 7.0 9 2 1.8 3-69 7.5 7.5 8.1 8.4 8.3 8.4 8.3 7.7 7.4 7.6 7.6 8.2 4-69 7.2 7.1 7.6 7.9 7.8 7.8 7.6 6.9 6.6 6.5 6.2 5.8 3.4 1-70 6,9 6.9 7.3 7.5 7.3 7.3 7.1 6.4 6.1 5.9 5.5 5.0 3.4 3.4 9 4 0 .2 ■ s + i 9 4 8 .0 i n / . 1 % 4 ” " 9 5 6 .0 6.7 7.1 7.3 7.2 7.1 6.9 6.3 6.0 5.8 5.4 5.1 4.0 4.4 5.3 6.7 7.1 7.2 7.1 7.0 6.8 6. 3 6.0 5.9 5.6 5.3 4.6 5.0 « 4-70 6.5 6.4 6.7 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.4 5.9 5.6 5.4 5.1 4.8 4. 1 4. 3 4.5 4.2 2.0 1 1-71 6.9 6.8 7,2 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.0 6.5 6.3 6.3 6.1 6.0 5.6 6. 1 6.8 7.3 7.7 2-71 7.0 6.9 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.1 6.7 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.0 6.5 7.1 7.5 7.9 1J— 6 6 4-66 1-67 2-67 3-67 1-68 2-68 3-68 4-68 1-69 2-69 3-69 4-69 1-70 2-70 3-70 INITIAL \ 9 6 8 .5 . 9 8 3 .5 INITIAL 9 8 8 .4 1 . 020 .8 8.3 11.0 1 1-71 RESERVE &ANK OF S T . LOUI S BI L L I O N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES QUARTER 'QUARTER------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------3-66 4-6 6 4 — 66 1-67 2-67 3-6 7 4-6 7 1-68 2-68 3- 6 8 1 .0 4 1 .3 QUARTER P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L ^ A U G U S T 2 0« 1 9 7 1 (jRUSS N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T IN “ CON S T A N T 1958 DOLLARS C O M P O U N D S 0 A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E TERMINAL + 1 1 . 0 % * 1 1 1 6.8 6.8 CM 2-70 3-70 o rJ r * i > 4-66 B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES QUAPTFR 4 — 6b 1-69 2-69 3-69 4-o9 1-70 2-70 3-70 4-70 1 -7 1 66 8 .1 4 .9 666.6 1-67 1.9 2-67 ¿.3 -0.9 1.1 3.0 3-67 2.8 2.2 3.7 4.4 4-67 2.8 2.3 3.4 3.6 2.3 1-68 3.2 2.9 3.9 4.2 4.1 5.4 2-68 3.8 3.7 4.6 5.0 5.2 6.4 7.5 3-68 3.9 3.7 4.5 4.3 4.9 5.6 5. 8 4. Ü 4-68 3.7 3.6 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.8 * 4.6 3.2 2.4 1-69 3.6 3.5 4.0 4.2 4. ) 4.4 4.2 3. 1 2.6 2-69 3.4 3.3 3. y 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.6 2.7 2.2 2.2 1.6 3-69 3.3 3.2 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.4 2.5 2.2 2.1 1.8 2.0 4-69 2.9 2.8 3. 1 3. 1 3.0 1 .0 2.7 1.9 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.3 ( 1 -1.4 1-70 7.5 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.3 1.9 1.2 0. 7 ü .4 -0.2 -0.8 -7.2 -2.9 2-70 .¿.4 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.2 7.2 1.8 1.1 0.7 G .4 -0.0 -0.4 -1.2 -1.1 3-70 2.3 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.1 I. 7 1.1 0.« 0.5 0.2 -0.1 -0.6 6 7 1.6 6 7 8 .9 6 8 3 .6 6 9 2 .6 7 0 5 .3 7 1 2 .3 7 16 .5 7.8 7 2 1 .4 7 2 4 .2 7 2 7 .8 1l .3w /%O 7 2 5 .2 0.7 \ 7 2 1 .1 -0.3 1.0 1.2 7 2 3 .3 N^ r 7 19 .8 r\+6.0% 4-70 1.9 1 .7 1.9 1.8 1.0 1.6 1.2 0 .6 0.7 -O.C -0.4 -0.8 -1.3 -1.3 -0.7 -1.4 -4.0 1-71 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 1. g 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.5 1.4 1.6 1.8 7.9 2-71 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.2 1.9 I .5 1.2 1 .1 1.0 0.9 0.7 1.1 1.9 2.2 2.5 6.U 3-66 4-66 1-67 2-67 3-67 1-68 2-68 3— 6 0 4—68 1-69 2-69 3-69 4-69 1-70 2— 70 3-70 4-70 4-6 7 INITIAL 7 15 .9 7 2 9 .7 .-t. Ï 7 3 7 .0 1 -7 1 ÙUAKTER PREPARED 3Y FEDERAL AUGUST 19, 1971 RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO U IS 9 DEMAND RATIO SCALE 1963 AND PRODUCTION TOTALS AT QUARTERLY 1964 1965 ILGNP IN CURRENT DOLLARS. I2.GNP IN 1966 1967 ANNUAL RATIO RATES 1968 SOURCE« 1969 U.S. 1970 SCALE 1971 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 19S8 DOLLARS. PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR P E R I O O S LATEST OAT a PLOTTED« I N D I C AT E D . 2ND QUARTER PREPARED 0V FÉDÉRAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUI S 1 0 --- F !MAL'"SAITS IN"C'URftENT ~PPlITÏÏT COMPOUNOEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE BI LLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES I NI T I AL QUARTER »UÄftTEft 3- 66 4- 66 1- 67 2- 67 3- 67 4- 67 1-68 2- 68 3- 68 4- 68 1- 69 2- 69 3- 69 4- 69 1- 70 2- 70 3- 7 0 4- 7 0 1-71 3 .7 1-67 5 .7 7 .7 6. 5 7. 4 764.8 780. 0 7. 3 792. 2 6. 4 W>7 1-68 805. 9 c+8 .1 % 1 7.1 8. 8 10.1 13. 2 831. 2 8. 7 9. 5 10.7 847. 8 8 6 7. S 9. 5____8. 2___ 8. 3___ 6. 9 7. 9 8. 4 a.5 3. 5 8. 9 3.1 8. 1 8. 3 882.1 8. 3 915. 0 8. 5 7.8 8. 1 7. 4 9 ?9. 8 942. 3 7. 4 7. 7 7. 7 7. 7 7.2 7. 1 6. 7 6. 6 6. 2 6. 7. 2 7. 5 7. 5 7. 4 6. 9 6. 8 6. 4 6. 3 5. 9 5. 6 7. 1 7. 3 7. 3 7. 2 6. 6 7. 0 7. 0 6. 9 7. 2 7. 4 7. 4 7. 2 7. 4 3-o6 4- 66 2- 70 955. 6 5. 3 7. 3 7. 3 6. 7 6.2 5. 8 5. 7 7. 3 7.4 7. 4 7. 0 6. 9 6. 6 6. 6 6. 3 6. 3 7.4 7.3 7. 4 7. 4 7. 0 6. 9 6. 7 6. 6 6. 4 6.4 6. 4 6. 5 1-Ö7 2—67 3- 67 4- 67 1- 68 2- 68 3-68 4- 68 1-69 2- 69 3- 69 4- 69 1*035.6 1- 70 2- 70 3- 70 4-70 1-71 I NI T I AL QUARTER PREPAREO BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS AUGUST 20, 1971______________________________________ "T TT1AL'S U E S IKl CONSTANT I T O 60ELAHS" COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE BI LLIONS OF TERMINAL I NI T I AL QUARTER QUARTER 3- 66 4-66 0. 2 1-67 2. 6 4- 66 1-67 2-67 3-67 4- 67 1-68 2- 68 31-68 4- 68 1- 69 ANNUAL RATES 2- 69 3- 69 4- 69 1- 70 2- 70 3- 70 4- 7 0 1-71 649. 5 ',.0 657. 5 2- 67 3. 8 5. 6 6.1 3- 67 3.3 4. 4 4. 0 2. 0 4- 67 3.1 3. 8 3. 4 2.1 2. 3 1-68 4. 2 5. 0 4. 9 4. 6 5. 9 9. 6 2-69 4. 1 4. 8 4. 7 4. 4 5.2 6. 7 3.8 3—68 4. 2 4. 8 4.H 4. 5 5.2 6. 2 4. 5 5. 2 4-fed 4 . «.'• 4. 5 4. 4 4. 1 4. 6 5.1 3. 7 3. 6 2.1 1-69 4.«: 4. 1 4. 4 4. 9 3. 7 3. 7 3.C 3. 9 2- 69 4. 3 XiA-l 1— 1 3. 8 4. 1 4. 0 3. 8 4. 0 4. 3 3. 3 3.1 2. 5 2. 6 1. 4 3-69 3. 4 3. 7 3. 6 3. 3 3. 5 3. 7 2. 7 2. 5 1.9 1.8 0. 8 0. 2 4- 69 3. 3 3. 5 3. 4 3. 1 3. 2 3. 3 2. 5 2. 3 1.7 1.6 0. 8 0. 6 0. 9 1-70 3. 0 3. 2 3. 0 2. 8 2. 9 2. 9 2.1 1. 9 1.3 1.2 0. 5 0. 2 0. 3 -0.4 N 667. 3 . +44% 670. 6 674. 4 690. 0 696. 5 705. 3 709. 0 . +0,8% ■"v 715. 8 718. 3 718. 6 720.3 719. 5 .+1.1% 2-70 2. 8 . 3. 0 2. 8 2. 5 2. 6 2. 6 1.9 1. 6 1.1 0. 9 0. 4 0. 1 0. 1 -0.3 -0.2 3-7C 2. 6 2. 8 2. 6 2. 3 2.4 2. 4 1.7 1.4 1.0 0. 8 0. 3 0. 1 0. 1 -0.2 -0.0 0. 2 4-70 2. 2 2. 4 2 .2 1. 9 1.9 1.9 1.2 0. 9 Ü. 5 0. 3 -0.2 -0.5 -0.6 -1.0 -1.2 -1.7 -3.6 1-71 2. 6 2. 7 2. 5 2. 3 2. 3 2. 3 1.8 1.6 1 .2 1.1 0. 8 0. 7 0. 8 0. 8 1.1 1.5 2. 2 8. 3 2-71 2. 6 2. 7 2. 6 2. 3 2. 4 2. 4 1.8 1. 7 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.0 l.l 1 1.1 1 1. 4 1.8 2. 4 5. 5 2. 8 3-66 4- 66 1-67 2- 67 3-67 4- 67 1- 68 2- 68 31-68 4- 68 1-69 2- 69 3- 69 2- 70 3- 70 4- 70 1-71 4- 69 1- 70 719- 1 719. 4 712. 8 X 727.1 1 732.1 PREPAREO BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS AUGUST 2 0 , 1971______________________________________ 11 FINAL SALES TOTAL SPENDING LESS CHANGES IN BUSINESS INVENTORIES RATIO SCALE TRILLIONS 1 QUARTERLY OF DOLLARS TOTALS AT SEASONALLY ANNUAL RATIO RATES ADJUSTED TRILLIONS OF SCALE DOLLARS . , 1 1 I . 1.0 1 0 . 0.9 0 . 0.8 0 . 0.7 0 . 0.6 0 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 SOURCE: PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR P E R I O D S LATEST DATA PLOTTED: 1969 U.S. 1970 1971 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE I ND I C A T E D . 2ND QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 1 2 CONSUMER PRICE INDEX * COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE. 1967 » 100 IN IT IA L MONTH TERMI NAL ---------------- l ? . T & ___L- TQ 2-iQ 1 -7 0 4 -70 5 -7 0 6 -7 0 7 -7 0 8 -7 0 9 -7 0 10 -7 0 11-7 0 12 -7 0 1 - 7 1 _ 2 - 7 1 3 -7 1 4 -7 1 H I 6 r 7 1 ------------------------------------------ 1-70_________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________________ 113.3 -2 .- 7 0 5 .4 -4 t 70 6 .2 J u l 5- 70 113.9 6 .5 ____Éu5_ ____ USL. 6.1____ 6. 5 7 J l. 115.7 . 6.5 I N I T I A L MONTH _ * ____NOT SEASONALLY A ^ JU ST t- D PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . AUGUST z g L X S J X WHOLESALE PRICES - INDUSTRIAL COMMODITIES * COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL MONTH __________ 12- 69 1-70 I N I T I A L MONTH 1- 70 2- 70 3- 70 4- 70 5- 70 6- 70 7- 70 8- 70 9- 70 10- 70 11- 70 12- 70 ,J5.7„ 1967 1-71 2- 7 1 3- 71 4- 71 5- 71 6- 71 108.3 2- 70 5. 1 4. 5 108.7 3- 70 4. 1 3. 4 108. 9 4. 2 109. 3 In i t i a l * LOUIS NCT SEASONALLY mo n t h ADJUSTED "PKFPAEEO BY FEDERAL Tflg5~ERVE BANK OF ST . LOUIS AUGUST 5 , 1971 13 RATIO PR I CES SCALE RATIO SCALE 1967-100 1967-100 1 20 1 20 +3 1 15 1 10 1~_ ! 1 5 >"114.5 1 10 +3. 9Z/ 105 105 *4 WHOLESALE NDUSTR1AL +I.6 Z 100 1 0 0 +cK 6Z 95 95 MM '63 90 » 1963 JUL r*6Z to1*. *65 \ t . _._J t 1964 1965 1966 1967 MA/ '70 ocr. 'ff,9 ti 1968 t 1969 SOURCE: PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR P E R I O D S LATEST DATA PLOTTED: 1970 U. S. DE P A R TM E NT jul r r r t 1971 OF LABOR I ND I C A T E D . JULY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 90 14 WHOLESALE PR IC ES* CO MPO UN DED A NN U A L TERM IN AL MONTH 1 2-69 IN ITIA L 1L - 7 0 J> - 7 0 • J-7 0 4 -7 0 5 -7 0 I-7 Ó 9 .2 2 -7 0 6*8 4 .5 3 -7 0 5 .3 3 .3 2 . 2 4 -7 0 3 .9 2 .2 1 .1 0 .0 5 -7 0 3 .6 2 .2 1 .5 1 .1 2 . 2 6 -7 0 3 .3 2 . 2 1 .6 1 .5 2 .2 2 .2 6 -7 0 7 -7 0 15 - 7 0 1967 MONTH 9 -7 0 10-70 I- 2 -7 1 71 3 -7 1 1 1 0 .1 1 1 0 .9 2 .9 2 .6 2 .8 3 .7 4 .4 6 .7 1 .9 1 .5 1 .3 1 .6 1 .5 1.1 -4 .2 9 -7 0 3 .1 2 .3 2 .0 2 .0 2 .4 2 .5 2 .6 0 .5 5 .6 1 1 0 .5 lll.O 1 1 1 .0 2 .8 2. 1 1 .8 1 .7 2 .0 2 .0 1 .9 0 .4 2 .7 0 .0 1 .8 1 .5 1 .4 1 •6 1 .5 1 .3 0 .0 1 .5 -0 .5 - l . l 1 2-70 2 .3 1 .7 1 .4 1 .3 1 .5 1 .4 1.3 0 .2 1 .4 0 .0 0 .0 1 1 0 .9 1 1 1 .0 1 .1 1 -7 1 2 .8 2 .3 2 .1 2 .1 2 .3 2 .3 2 .3 1 .6 2 .8 2 .2 2 .9 5 .0 9 .0 2 -7 1 3 .4 3 .0 2 .8 2 .9 3 .2 3 .3 3 .4 3 .0 4 .2 3 .9 4 .9 7 .0 10.1 1 1.3 3 -7 1 3 .3 2 .9 2 .8 2 .8 3 .1 3 .2 3 .3 2 .9 3 .9 3 .6 4 .4 5 .8 7 .4 6 .6 2 .1 1 1 1 .8 1 1 2 .8 1 1 3 .0 4 -7 1 3 .3 2 .9 2 .8 2 .9 3 .1 3 .2 3 .3 2 .9 3 .8 3 .6 4 .2 5 .3 6 .3 5 .5 2 .7 3 .2 5 -7 1 3 .4 3 .1 3 .0 3 .0 3 .3 3 .4 3 .5 3 .1 4 .0 3 .8 4 .4 5 .3 6 .2 5 .5 3 .6 4 .3 5 .4 6 -7 1 3 .5 3 .2 3 .1 3 .2 3 .4 3 .5 3 .6 3 .3 4 .1 4 .0 4 .5 5 .3 6 .0 5 .5 4 .0 4 .7 5 .4 5 .4 7 -7 1 3 .5 3 .2 3 .1 3 .2 3 .4 3 .5 3 .6 3 .3 4 .1 3 .9 4 .3 5 .0 5 .6 5 .1 3 .9 4 .3 4 .7 4 •3 3 .2 12 - 6 9 I-7 0 2- 7 0 3i - 7 0 4-7 0 5 -7 0 6-7 0 7 -7 0 81 -7 0 9 -7 0 10-70 11 - 7 0 1 2 -7 0 1 -7 1 2 -7 1 3 -7 1 4 -7 1 5 - 71 6 -7 1 IN ITIA L SEASONALLY PR E P A R E D BY F E O E R A L 'R E S E R V E AUGUST 5 , 1971 1 -7 0 1 1 4 .6 1 -7 0 2 -7 0 3 -7 0 4 -7 0 5 -7 0 6 - 70 7 -7 0 8 - 70 F OO DS ANO BANK OF ST. 1967 MONTH 9 -7 0 1 0-70 1 1-70 1 2 -7 0 1 -7 1 2 -7 1 3 -7 1 4 -7 1 5 -7 1 100 1 1 2 . 4 _____ 8 .6 2 .7 l.l 4 -7 0 3 .3 -2 .1 -5 .2 -1 1 .1 5 -7 0 1 .3 -3 .2 -5 .6 -8 .7 -6 .3 6 -7 0 2 .0 -1 .5 -2 .9 -4 .2 -0 .5 112 .9 111 .8 1 11 .2 1 11 .7 5 .5 7 -7 0 4 .4 1 .3 1 .3 1 .3 5 .8 1 2.5 19 . 9 8 -7 0 0 .8 -1 .8 -2 .8 -3 .6 -1 .6 0 .0 - 2 .7 -2 .7 -1 .9 -3 .7 -1 0 .5 - 4 .8 -2 1 .9 -2 .9 -2 .3 - 3 .8 -9 .C - 4 .6 -1 3 .6 -4 .3 -4 .2 -3 .3 -2 .9 - 4 .3 -8 .5 -5 .0 -1 1 .2 -5 .3 -2 .5 -3 .3 -3 .9 -2 .7 -3 .4 -4 .0 -1 .2 -3 .0 -3 .7 1 0-70 -0 .3 1 1-70 -0 .7 12-70 1 1 2 .6 16 . 2 -4 .2 1 .7 0 .3 1 1 1 .2 -2 0 .9 3 .3 -0 .5 2 .4 ______ 1 1 3 . 4 ____ 3 .8 -0 .3 9 -7 0 1 1 0 .3 1 0 9 .9 1 0 9 .3 -6 .4 1 1 0 .7 1-7 1 0 .1 -1 .5 -2 .0 -2 .3 -1 .3 -0 .7 - 1 .5 -4 .7 -1 .1 -5 .0 1 .5 4 .4 16.5 2 -7 1 2 .3 1 .0 0 .7 0 .7 1 .9 2 .9 2 .6 0 .3 4 .4 2 .1 9 .2 1 4.2 2 6.1 3 6 .4 3 -7 1 2 .C 0 .8 0 .5 0 .4 1.6 2 .4 2.0 0 .0 3 .4 1 .4 6 .9 9 .9 1 5.9 1 5 .6 -2 .1 4 -7 1 1 .8 0 .6 0 .4 0 .3 1 .3 2 .1 1.7 -0 .1 2 .8 9 .7 -1 .6 -1 .1 5 -7 1 2 .4 1 .3 i.l 1 .1 2 .1 2 .8 2 .5 1 . 0 ____ 3 . 7 2 .3 6 .3 8 .2 1 1.3 10.1 2 .5 4 .9 1 1.1 6 -7 1 2 .9 1 .9 1 .7 1 .8 2 .8 3 .5 3 .3 1 .9 4 .5 3 .3 7 .0 8 .7 1 1 .5 10.5 4 .8 7 .2 1 1.6 1 2.2 7 -7 1 2 .5 1 .5 1 .4 1 .4 2 .3 2 .9 2 .7 1 .4 3 .7 2 .6 5 .7 7 .0 9 .1 7 .9 3 .0 4 .3 6 .1 3 .7 - 4 .1 1 -7 0 • 2 -7 0 3 -7 0 4 -7 0 5 -7 0 6 - 70 7 -7 0 8 - 70 9 -7 0 1 0-70 1 1-70 1 2 -7 0 1 -7 1 2 -7 1 3 -7 1 4 -7 1 5 -7 1 6 ~ 71 M IN ITIA L NOT « 6 - 71 1 1 2 .a 3 -7 0 1 2-69 “ L oui s FEEDS* 2 1 .4 4 .4 o P R I C E S - FARM P R O D U C T S , AND P R O C E S S E D COM PO UN D ED ANN U A L R A T E S OF C HA NG E IN ITIA L 1 2.5 l 1 1 3 .8 1 1 4 .3 AD JUSTED WHOLESALE ♦ 113*3 MONTH .... TERM IN AL monT h 12-69 1 00 1 1 0 .3 3 .8 NOT * 6-7 1 1 0 9 .9 2 .4 .* 1 2-7C 5 - 71 1 0 9 .9 2 .8 . 11-70 -4 - 7 1 109 .3 7 -7 0 . U - 70 * 1 0 9 .7 8 -7 0 10-70 ALL COM M ODITIES R A TES OF CHANCE SEASONALLY . 5 . 5 ____7 . 6 ___l i . 4 __ 1 1 3 .6 1 1 3 .4 1 1 3 .3 ______ J U 4 u 3 _____ 1 1 5 .4 1 1 5 .0 MONTH AOJUSTED PREPARED BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS AUGUST 5 , 1971 15 GENERAL PRICE INDEX* RATIO SCALE RATIO SCALE 1 9 5 8 * 10 0 1 9 5 8 - 10 0 1965 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 »AS USED IN NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS 1969 1970 1971 SOURCE! U .S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST OATA PLOTTED. 2NO QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE SANK OF ST. LOUIS I MPLI CI T PRICE OEFLATDR FOR GRfl!TS 'NSTTCOTAL PRODUCT COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE_______________________________ I NI T I AL QUARTER TERMINAL QUARTER 3 -6 6 4 -6 6 1-6 7 2 -6 7 3 -6 7 4 -6 7 1-68 2-68 4 -6 8 3 -6 8 1-6 9 19 58 2 -6 9 3 -6 9 4 -6 9 1-7 0 2 -7 0 3 -7 0 4 -7 0 » 10 0 1 -7 1 11 5 .4 4 —6 6 3 .2 1-6 7 3 .0 2.8 116 .2 2 -6 7 2 .7 2 .4 2.1 3 -6 7 3 .1 3 .0 3 .1 4 .2 4 -6 7 3 .4 3 .5 3 .7 4 .5 4 .8 1-68 3 .4 3 .5 3 .6 4 .1 4 .1 3 .4 2-68 3 .5 3 .6 3 .7 4. 1 4 .1 3 .7 I * -2 I 1____ ___ 1 116 .8 1 + A 118 .0 9 ° / 119 .4 12 0 .4 121.6 4 .0 3 -6 8 3 .6 3 .7 3 .8 4 .2 3 .9 4 .2 ,.3 K 4 -6 8 3 .7 3 .8 3 .9 4 .2 4 .2 4 .1 4 .3 4 .5 4 .6 1-6 9 3 .8 3 .8 4 .0 4 .2 4 .2 4 .1 4 .3 4 .4 4 .4 1 V 12 2 .9 4 . A Q O /_ 1 '*.v/u 12 4 .3 4.2 I ' 12 5 .6 4 .9 3 .9 4 .0 4 .1 4 .4 4 .4 4 .4 4 .6 4 .7 4 .1 4 .2 4 .3 4 .6 4 .6 4 .6 4 .8 5 .0 5 .1 5 .3 5 .8 6. 1 4 -6 9 4 .2 4 .2 4 .4 4 .6 4 .6 4 .6 4 .8 4 .9 5 .0 5 .1 5 .5 5 .4 ♦ I 4 .1 I________ 1 r 1 127.3 4 . * QO/ v.v/u 2 -6 9 3 -6 9 \ 12 9 .2 130. 7 .T 6.6 I 1 1-7 0 4 .3 4 .4 4 .6 4 .8 4 .8 4 .8 5 .0 5 .2 5 .3 5 .4 5 .7 5.8 5 .7 2 -7 0 4 .3 4 .4 4 .6 4 .8 4 .8 4 .8 5 .0 5 .1 5 .2 5 .3 5 .5 5 .5 5 .3 5.6 4 .6 3 -7 0 4 .4 4 .5 4 .6 4 .8 4 .8 4 .8 5 .0 5 .1 5 .2 5 .3 5 .4 5 .4 5 .3 5 .4 4 .9 5 .2 4 -70 4 .5 4 .6 4 .7 4 .9 5 .0 5 .0 5 .1 5 .2 5 .3 5.4 5 .6 5.6 5 .5 5 .7 5 .4 5 .7 6 .3 13 8 .1 1-7 1 4 .6 4 .6 4 .7 4 .9 5 .0 5 .0 5 .1 5 .2 5 .3 5 .4 5 .5 5 .5 5 .4 5 .6 5 .3 5 .6 - 13 9 .9 2 -7 1 4 .5 4 .6 4 .7 4 .9 4 .9 4 .9 5 .0 5 .1 5 .2 5 .3 5 .4 5 .4 5 .2 5 .3 5 .1 5 .2 5 .2 4 .7 4 .1 3 -6 6 4 -6 6 1-6 7 2 -6 7 3 -6 7 4 -6 7 1-6 8 2-68 3 -6 8 4 -6 8 1-6 9 2 -6 9 3 -6 9 4 -6 9 1-7 Ô 2 -7 0 3 -7 0 4 -7 0 1-7 1 13 2 .8 +5 1% 13 4 .3 136. 0 1 14 1.3 I N I T I A L QUARTER by FE o e r a l AUGUST 19, 1971 prepared reser ve Sa n k of s t . LO ulS INVENTORIES COMPARED WITH MANUFACTURING MONTHLY S A L E S * AND TRADE 72 . 6 8 68 . 64 64 .60 60 . 56 56 TREND LINE . 52 52 1 . 5Q_ .48 48 . 44 44 . 40 40 . 36 36 * RAT I OS 1958 1959 BASED ON 1960 1961 SEASONALLY 1962 ADJUSTED S H A D E D A R E A S R E P R E S E N T P E R I O D S OF A S D E F I N E D BY THE N A T I O N A L B U R E A U LATEST DATA PLOTTED: JUNE 1963 1964 1965 1966 DATA. 1967 SOURCE: 1968 1969 U. S . DEPARTMENT 1970 OF 1 COMMERCE BUSINESS RECESSIONS OF E C O N O M I C R E S E A R C H . PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
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