Full text of National Economic Trends : April 2003
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NationalEconomicTrends April 2003 A National Recession I persion: All eight of the geographic regions experienced a decline in jobs. This geographic dispersion is seen at the state level as well. Of the eight states with the largest percentage job declines, there is at least one state from seven of the eight geographic regions represented (the Southwest is the exception). Likewise, of the eight states with the smallest percentage job declines, five of the geographic regions are represented. Finally, no state escaped a decline in employment during the recession. The economic pain of the recession was truly felt nationally. The Federal Reserve assesses regional economic conditions as an input into its monetary policy decisions. Eight times per year, each of its 12 regional banks performs a survey of local business conditions, summaries of which are published in the Beige Book.2 However, while regional conditions are of interest to monetary policymakers, it is unlikely that the direction of monetary policy would be determined by the fortunes of any one region, as it is generally thought that monetary policy is too blunt a tool to fine-tune the economic performance of a specific geographic area. n late 2000 and early 2001, the U.S. economy closed a chapter of very strong economic growth and entered its tenth recession since the end of the Second World War. Since this recession began, the economy has experienced significant overall declines in production and employment. For example, payroll employment fell by 1.4 percent, totaling 1.8 million jobs, from its peak in March 2001 to its low point in December 2002.1 However, such national statistics need not accurately represent the economy’s strength in any particular geographic region. An interesting question to ask is then whether the recent recession was a truly “national” event, or whether it instead was localized in just a few geographic areas. To investigate this question, I compute the percentage decline in payroll employment during the recent national recession for each state and the District of Columbia. I also compute employment losses for each of the eight geographic regions of the United States, as defined by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The percentage employment —Jeremy Piger declines are measured by first recording the highest level that state and regional employment reached in the six 1 All employment data used in this note are nonagricultural employment as months before and after the peak in the national employmeasured by the Establishment Survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. ment data, which occurred in March 2001. This peak is 2 The Beige Book is available at <http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/beigebook/ then compared with the lowest level state and regional 2003/default.htm>. employment have reached since March 2001. For some states, employment had not yet begun to recover by the end of the sample period, which is January 2003. Thus, in these states the employPercent Change in Employment Associated with the Most Recent ment losses of the recent recession U.S. Recession could end up being more severe 8 states with 8 states with than reported here. The table largest job losses smallest job losses Regions shows these declines for the eight states with the largest percentage Washington –3.6 Nebraska –0.6 Great Lakes –2.4 Indiana –3.5 Rhode Island –0.6 New England –2.2 job losses, the eight states with Georgia –3.5 Alaska –0.6 Rocky Mountain –2.1 the smallest percentage job losses, Missouri –3.5 Maine –0.5 Plains –1.7 and each of the eight geographic Delaware –3.4 Kansas –0.4 Mideast –1.3 Michigan –3.4 Wyoming –0.4 Southeast –1.2 regions. Massachusetts –3.2 Oklahoma –0.3 Southwest –1.1 The table suggests that the Colorado –3.2 New Mexico –0.2 Far West –0.9 recent recession was a national event, with wide geographic dis- Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System. Available on the web at research.stlouisfed.org Contents Page 3 4 7 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 27 Economy at a Glance Output and Growth Interest Rates Inflation and Prices Labor Markets Consumer Spending Investment Spending Government Revenues, Spending, and Debt International Trade Productivity and Profits Quick Reference Tables Notes and Sources Conventions used in this publication: 1. Except where otherwise noted, solid shading indicates recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The NBER has not yet determined the end of the recession that began in March 2001; however, the hatched shading indicates this recession ended in November 2001, as determined by a statistical model for dating business cycle turning points developed by Marcelle Chauvet (“An Econometric Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching,” International Economic Review, November 1998, pp. 969-96) and discussed by Marcelle Chauvet and Jeremy Piger (“Identifying Business Cycle Turning Points in Real Time,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April 2003, pp. 47-62). 2. Percent change refers to simple percent changes. Percent change from year ago refers to the percent change from the same month or quarter during the previous year. Compounded annual rate of change shows what the growth rate would be over an entire year if the same simple percent change continued for four quarters or twelve months. The compounded annual rate of change of x between the previous quarter t –1 and the current quarter t is: [(xt /x t – 1 )4 –1] × 100. For monthly data replace 4 with 12. 3. All data with significant seasonal patterns are adjusted accordingly, unless labeled NSA. We welcome your comments addressed to: Editor, National Economic Trends Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis P.O. Box 442 St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or to: stlsFRED@stls.frb.org National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing to the Public Affairs Department, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, P.O. Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or by calling (314) 444-8809. Subscription forms may also be completed online at research.stlouisfed.org/order/pubform.php. For more information on data in this publication, please visit research.stlouisfed.org/fred or call (314) 444-8573. The entire publication is also available on the Internet at research.stlouisfed.org/publications/net. updated through 04/01/03 National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth Consumer Price Index Compounded annual rates of change Percent change 10 0.8 8 0.6 6 0.4 4 0.2 2 0.0 0 -0.2 -2 -0.4 14245 1999 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 14610 2000 14976 Industrial Production Interest Rates Percent change Percent 2.4 8 1.8 7 1.2 6 0.6 5 0.0 4 -0.6 3 -1.2 2 -1.8 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 10-Year Treasury 3-Month Treasury 1 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 Unemployment Rate Thousands Percent of labor force 700 6.5 600 500 6.0 400 300 5.5 200 100 5.0 0 -100 4.5 -200 -300 4.0 -400 -500 3.5 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 3 updated through 04/01/03 National Economic Trends Real Gross Domestic Product Percent change from year ago 10 5 0 -5 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 Industrial Production and Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Indexes Percent change from year ago Index 18 74 Industrial Production (left scale) 12 66 6 58 0 50 ISM (right scale) -6 42 -12 34 -18 26 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Percent change from year ago 12 8 4 0 -4 -8 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 Real Change in Private Inventories Percent of GDP 2 1 0 -1 -2 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 Research Division 4 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 04/01/03 National Economic Trends Real Final Sales and GDP Real GDP Revisions Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 10 7 Advance Preliminary Final Annual Revision 6 8 5 GDP (bar) 6 4 Final Sales 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 -1 -2 -2 14610 2000 2001 14976 2002 15341 Industrial Production and ISM Index Percent change Index Industrial Production (bar) (left scale) 0.0 -0.6 ISM (right scale) -1.2 -1.8 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 2002:1 2002:2 2002:3 2002:4 Nominal Gross Domestic Product 1.2 0.6 2001:4 15706 Compounded annual rates of change 62 10 56 8 50 6 44 4 38 2 32 0 14610 16071 Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 Average Weekly Private Nonfarm Hours Percent change Hours 0.75 34.75 0.50 0.25 34.50 0.00 -0.25 34.25 -0.50 -0.75 34.00 -1.00 -1.25 33.75 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 Real Change in Private Inventories 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 Inventory-Sales Ratio Billions of 1996 dollars Manufacturing and trade 120 1.48 90 1.46 60 1.44 30 1.42 0 1.40 -30 1.38 -60 -90 1.36 -120 1.34 -150 1.32 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 5 updated through 03/27/03 National Economic Trends Contribution of Components to Real GDP Growth Percentage points at compounded annual rates 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 01Q1 01Q2 01Q3 01Q4 02Q1 02Q2 02Q3 Consumption Exports Government Imports Inventories Investment 02Q4 Contributions to Real GDP Growth Rate 2001 2002 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2.67 -0.45 -0.20 4.13 2.44 -0.06 3.45 1.10 -3.27 -1.14 -0.09 -1.39 2.60 1.31 0.58 0.28 1.53 0.92 0.97 4.05 2.22 1.22 2.93 1.19 -0.38 -1.95 -0.72 -1.49 -0.07 -0.15 -0.03 0.65 -0.71 -1.93 -0.73 -1.33 -0.66 -0.27 -0.08 0.24 0.34 -0.02 0.02 -0.16 0.60 0.12 0.05 0.41 0.99 1.00 -0.21 1.85 1.04 0.27 0.56 0.85 0.54 0.36 0.07 0.80 0.47 0.47 0.29 0.70 0.45 0.64 -0.28 1.05 0.56 -0.21 0.27 0.15 Net Exports 0.53 -0.42 -0.24 -0.28 -0.75 -1.40 -0.01 -1.59 Exports Imports -0.69 -1.42 -1.94 -0.99 0.33 1.29 0.45 -0.59 1.22 1.00 1.70 0.70 -1.08 -2.69 -0.47 -1.00 0.45 0.50 0.07 0.42 -0.05 0.27 0.06 0.28 -0.60 -1.59 -0.29 2.74 5.04 1.25 4.03 1.38 Final Sales Change in Inventory Consumption Fixed Investment Nonresidential Residential Government Federal State and Local Residual Real GDP Growth Research Division 6 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 04/01/03 National Economic Trends Interest Rates Percent 18 15 12 9 10-Year Treasury 6 3-Month Treasury 3 0 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 Treasury Yield Curve Percent 6.00 5.25 4.50 Mar 2002 3.75 3.00 2.25 Mar 2003 1.50 Week Ending: 03/28/2003 0.75 3m 1y . 2y 5y 7y 10y Standard and Poor’s 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends Percent change from year ago 75 50 25 0 -25 -50 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 7 updated through 03/27/03 National Economic Trends NIPA Chain Price Indexes Percent change from year ago 12 10 8 6 4 GDP 2 Gross Domestic Purchases 0 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 Consumer Price Index Percent change from year ago 15 12 9 6 Excl. Food and Energy 3 All Items 0 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 Producer Price Index, Finished Goods Percent change from year ago 20 15 10 Excl. Food and Energy 5 0 PPI -5 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 Employment Cost Index and Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago 15 12 9 Comp. per Hour 6 3 ECI 0 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 Research Division 8 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 04/01/03 National Economic Trends NIPA Chain Price Indexes Oil & Natural Gas Prices: Spot & Futures Compounded annual rates of change Dollars per barrel Dollars per million btu 16 40 5 Spot Oil (left scale) 36 4 Gross Domestic Purchases 3 GDP (bar) 2 1 Oil Futures (left scale) 14 32 12 28 10 24 8 20 6 4 16 0 Spot Gas (right scale) 12 -1 Gas Futures (right scale) 2 8 2000 14610 2001 14976 2002 15341 15706 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Note: Futures prices as of 3/31/2003. Consumer Price Index Consumption Chain Price Index Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 10 15 8 10 Excl. Food & Energy 6 PCE (bar) 4 5 2 0 0 CPI (bar) -2 Excl. Food & Energy -5 -4 -6 -10 2001 14976 2002 15341 2003 15706 16071 14976 2001 15341 2002 Producer Price Index, Finished Goods Unit Labor Cost Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 22.5 15706 2003 16071 25 20 15.0 PPI (bar) 15 7.5 Nonfarm 10 0.0 5 -7.5 Excl. Food & Energy 0 -15.0 -5 -22.5 -10 2001 14976 2002 15341 2003 15706 16071 Manufacturing (bar) 14610 2000 14976 2001 Employment Cost Index Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago Compounded annual rates of change 8 20 6 15 15341 2002 15706 Wages and Salaries 4 10 Compensation 2 5 Benefits 0 0 13515 1997 13880 1998 14245 1999 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 9 updated through 03/07/03 National Economic Trends Employment Percent change from year ago 8 6 4 Payroll Survey 2 Household Survey 0 -2 -4 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 See the Notes section at the end of this publication for the Feb. 7, 2003, revisions to the Household Survey. 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 Unemployment, Labor Force Participation, and Employment Rates Percent of labor force Percent of population 15 70 Labor Force/Population (right scale) 12 67 Employment/Population (right scale) 9 64 6 61 Unemployment Rate (left scale) 3 58 0 55 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 Duration of Unemployment Weeks Percent of labor force 4.50 16 3.75 14 Unemployed < 5 Weeks (left scale) 3.00 12 2.25 10 Unemployed > 15 Weeks (left scale) 1.50 8 Median (right scale) 0.75 6 0.00 4 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 Research Division 10 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 03/27/03 National Economic Trends Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Change in Manufacturing Payrolls Thousands Thousands 700 100 600 500 50 400 300 0 200 100 -50 0 -100 -100 -200 -300 -150 -400 -500 -200 2001 14976 2002 15341 2003 15706 16071 Change in Household Employment 2001 14976 2002 15341 2003 15706 16071 Labor Force and Population Thousands Percent change from year ago 2.5 1625 1300 2.0 975 1.5 650 90% Confidence 325 0 -325 -650 Pop. 1.0 0.5 Labor Force 0.0 -975 -0.5 -1300 -1625 -1.0 2001 14976 2002 15341 2003 15706 16071 13880 1998 14245 1999 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 Available Labor Supply and Components Unemployment Rate & Help-Wanted Index Percent of labor force Percent 11 8.0 95 7.5 90 7.0 85 9 90% Confidence 10 Index 6.5 Available Labor Supply 8 Help-Wanted (right scale) 6.0 5.5 7 5.0 6 80 75 70 65 4.5 Unemployed 5 60 4.0 55 Unemployment Rate (left scale) 3.5 4 3 Want to Work 2 50 3.0 45 2.5 40 2.0 13880 1998 14245 1999 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 35 1998 13880 1999 14245 2000 14610 2001 14976 2002 15341 2003 15706 16071 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 11 updated through 03/27/03 National Economic Trends Real Disposable Personal Income Percent change from year ago, quarterly data 12 8 4 0 -4 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 Real Consumption Percent change from year ago, quarterly data Percent change from year ago, quarterly data 24 12 Durables (left scale) 16 8 8 4 Total (right scale) 0 0 -8 -4 -16 -8 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 Retail and Food Services Sales Percent change from year ago, quarterly average 16 12 8 4 0 -4 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 *Data before January 1992 are not strictly comparable (see End Notes). 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 Debt Service Payments and Household Debt Outstanding Percent change from year ago, quarterly data Percent of disposable personal income 18 15 Debt Service Payments (right scale) 15 14 12 13 9 12 6 11 Household Debt Outstanding (left scale) 3 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 10 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 Research Division 12 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 03/28/03 National Economic Trends Real Disposable Personal Income Personal Saving Rate Percent change Percent 3.2 6 2.4 1.6 4 0.8 0.0 -0.8 2 -1.6 -2.4 -3.2 0 2001 14976 2002 15341 2003 15706 16071 Real Consumption 13880 1998 14245 1999 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 Real Consumption Compounded annual rates of change Percent change 3.2 8 2.4 6 1.6 0.8 4 0.0 -0.8 2 -1.6 -2.4 0 2000 14610 2001 14976 2002 15341 15706 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 Retail & Food Services Real Durables Consumption & Vehicle Sales Percent change Percent change 8 Millions of vehicles, annual rate 18 23 15 22 12 21 6 20 9 4 2 0 Total (bar) -2 Durables (bar) (left scale) 6 Ex. Autos 19 3 18 0 17 -3 16 Autos and Light Trucks (right scale) -6 -4 15 -9 2001 14976 2002 15341 2003 15706 16071 14 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 Consumer Sentiment (U. of Michigan) Real Durables Consumption Index Compounded annual rates of change 120 2003 16071 50 40 110 30 100 20 90 10 0 80 -10 -20 70 13880 1998 14245 1999 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 13 updated through 03/27/03 National Economic Trends Investment Percent of nominal GDP 24 22 Total 20 18 16 Private 14 12 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 Private Fixed Investment Percent change from year ago 30 24 18 Nominal 12 6 Real 0 -6 -12 -18 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 Real Nonresidential Fixed and Equipment & Software Investment Percent change from year ago 25 20 Equipment & Software 15 10 5 Nonresidential 0 -5 -10 -15 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 Real Residential Fixed Investment Percent change from year ago 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 Research Division 14 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 03/27/03 National Economic Trends Gross Saving Rates and Net Foreign Investment Percent of GDP Percent of GDP 10 24 Overall Saving (left scale) 22 8 20 6 18 4 2 16 Private Saving (left scale) 14 0 -2 12 NFI (right scale) 10 -4 -6 8 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 Real Private Fixed Investment Nondefense Capital Goods Orders Compounded annual rates of change Percent change from year ago, excluding aircraft 20 30 15 20 10 10 03 Equipment & Software Investment 5 0 0 Orders -10 -5 02 02 -20 -10 -15 -30 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 13880 1998 14245 1999 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 Real Equipment & Software Investment Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 2003 16071 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -15 -20 -20 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 14610 2000 2001 14976 15341 2002 Real Residential Fixed Investment Housing Starts and New Home Sales Compounded annual rates of change Millions, annual rate 15706 Millions, annual rate 2.2 20 1.12 New Home Sales (right scale) 2.1 15 2.0 10 1.08 1.04 1.9 1.00 5 1.8 0.96 0 1.7 0.92 1.6 0.88 -5 1.5 -10 0.84 Housing Starts (left scale) 1.4 -15 0.80 1.3 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 14976 0.76 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 15 updated through 03/27/03 National Economic Trends Govt. Consumption and Investment Government Receipts and Outlays Billions of 1996 dollars Percent of GDP 1800 35 Total Outlays 1600 Total 1400 30 1200 Total Receipts State & Local 1000 25 Fed. Outlays 800 600 20 Federal 400 Fed. Receipts 200 15 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 Government Budgets Billions of dollars National Income Accounts Unified Budget Calendar Years Fiscal Years State and Local Receipts Expenditures Federal Surplus or Deficit (-) Receipts Federal Expenditures Surplus or Deficit (-) Receipts Outlays Surplus or Deficit (-) 1991 716.0 723.8 -7.8 1072.3 1287.6 -215.3 1055.0 1324.4 -269.4 1992 772.2 777.2 -5.0 1121.3 1418.9 -297.6 1091.3 1381.7 -290.4 1993 823.2 821.7 1.5 1197.3 1471.5 -274.2 1154.4 1409.5 -255.1 1994 873.8 865.2 8.6 1293.7 1506.0 -212.3 1258.6 1461.9 -203.3 1995 917.9 902.5 15.4 1383.7 1575.7 -192.0 1351.8 1515.8 -164.0 1996 960.4 939.0 21.4 1499.1 1635.9 -136.8 1453.1 1560.6 -107.5 1997 1011.3 980.3 31.0 1625.5 1678.8 -53.3 1579.3 1601.3 -22.0 1998 1074.4 1033.7 40.7 1749.7 1705.9 43.8 1721.8 1652.6 69.2 1999 1144.1 1105.8 38.3 1867.2 1755.3 111.9 1827.5 1701.9 125.5 2000 1214.2 1196.2 18.0 2033.9 1827.1 206.8 2025.2 1788.8 236.4 2001 1261.3 1292.6 -31.3 2008.4 1936.4 72.0 1991.0 1863.9 127.1 2002 1304.9 1356.4 -51.5 1875.6 2075.5 -199.9 1853.2 2011.0 -157.8 2000Q1 1195.9 1163.2 32.7 2009.6 1786.4 223.2 433.7 448.7 -15.0 2000Q2 1204.7 1184.5 20.2 2022.9 1825.7 197.2 656.0 444.3 211.8 2000Q3 1225.4 1206.2 19.2 2049.1 1835.9 213.2 491.7 431.3 60.4 2000Q4 1230.8 1231.0 -0.2 2054.1 1860.3 193.8 462.0 464.3 -2.3 2001Q1 1247.3 1263.8 -16.5 2072.9 1899.1 173.8 459.8 482.2 -22.5 2001Q2 1261.1 1293.4 -32.3 2072.3 1927.8 144.5 660.3 466.5 193.7 2001Q3 1253.6 1299.8 -46.2 1896.0 1947.7 -51.7 409.0 450.7 -41.7 2001Q4 1283.2 1313.3 -30.1 1992.3 1971.0 21.3 466.3 501.7 -35.4 2002Q1 1273.3 1329.1 -55.8 1884.7 2030.5 -145.8 412.6 509.2 -96.6 2002Q2 1302.5 1347.6 -45.1 1883.7 2079.3 -195.6 522.6 506.9 15.6 2002Q3 1310.3 1365.0 -54.7 1864.1 2074.6 -210.5 451.7 493.2 -41.5 2002Q4 1333.4 1384.0 -50.6 1869.7 2117.4 -247.7 427.4 536.1 -108.7 Research Division 16 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 03/27/03 National Economic Trends Federal Debt Federal Surplus (+) / Deficit (-) Percent of GDP Percent of GDP 70 4 Total 60 2 0 50 NIPA -2 40 Held by Public -4 30 Unified Budget -6 -8 20 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 Change in Federal Debt 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 Federal Surplus (+) / Deficit (-), Unified Basis Percent of GDP Billions of dollars, fiscal years 750 8 6 500 4 Total Excl. interest payments 250 2 0 0 Held by Public Total -250 -2 -4 -500 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 Federal Government Debt Billions of dollars, end of month or fiscal year Excludes Agency-issued debt Total Public Debt Held by Agencies and Trusts Total Held by Public Federal Reserve Banks Held by Private Investors Foreign and Total International 2000 5674.2 2235.7 3438.5 511.4 2936.2 1057.9 2001 5807.5 2468.8 3338.7 534.1 2779.7 1005.5 2002 6228.2 2675.6 3552.6 604.2 2924.8 1128.6 March 5651.6 1857.1 3794.6 465.7 3327.5 1272.3 June 5638.8 1953.6 3685.2 484.9 3199.2 1258.8 September 5656.3 1989.1 3667.2 489.0 3175.4 1281.4 December 5776.1 2060.6 3715.5 478.0 3233.9 1268.7 March 5773.4 2085.4 3688.0 501.7 3182.8 1106.9 June 5685.9 2190.2 3495.7 505.0 2987.4 1082.0 September 5674.2 2235.7 3438.5 511.4 2936.2 1057.9 December 5662.2 2248.7 3527.4 511.7 2880.4 1034.2 March 5773.7 2339.4 3434.4 523.9 2892.9 1029.9 June 5726.8 2452.6 3274.2 535.1 2722.6 1000.5 September 5807.5 2468.8 3338.7 534.1 2779.7 1005.5 December 5943.4 2549.7 3393.8 551.7 2819.5 1053.1 March 6006.0 2562.4 3443.7 575.4 2849.2 1056.5 June 6126.5 2662.9 3463.5 590.7 2849.8 1068.1 September 6228.2 2675.6 3552.6 604.2 2924.8 1128.6 December 6405.7 2758.3 3647.4 629.4 3018.5 1174.2 1999 2000 2001 2002 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 17 updated through 04/01/03 National Economic Trends Current Account, Trade and Investment Income Balances Billions of dollars, quarterly rate Percent of GDP 20 2 Investment Income (left scale) 10 1 0 0 Current Account (right scale) -10 -20 -1 -2 -30 -3 -40 -4 -50 -5 -60 -6 -70 -7 -80 -8 -90 -9 Goods and Services (left scale) -100 -10 -110 -11 -120 -12 -130 -13 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 Exchange Rates 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 Yen/US$ 100 x (Ecu or Euro/US$) Index, March 1973 = 100 160 375 140 300 120 225 Major Currency Index (left scale) 100 150 Yen (right scale) 80 Euro (right scale) Ecu (right scale) 75 60 0 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 Goods Export Shares, 2002 UK 4.87% 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 Goods Import Shares, 2002 Mexico 11.55% Mexico 14.29% UK 3.50% China 10.73% China 3.23% All Other 22.68% Japan 7.54% Japan 10.41% All Other 24.03% Germany 3.90% France 2.79% Germany 5.35% France 2.43% Other OECD 17.13% Canada 23.57% Canada 18.05% Other OECD 13.94% Research Division 18 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 03/14/03 National Economic Trends Trade Balance Goods Trade Billions of dollars Percent change from year ago 0 30 -5 25 -10 20 -15 15 -20 Imports 10 Goods and Services -25 5 -30 0 -35 -5 -40 -10 -45 -50 14976 2001 15341 2002 Exports -15 Goods -20 15706 2003 16071 Current Account Balance 14976 2001 15341 2002 2003 15706 16071 Services Trade Billions of dollars Percent change from year ago 0 375 -20 300 37.5 30.0 Imports (left scale) -40 225 -60 150 15.0 -80 75 7.5 -100 0 -120 0.0 Exports (right scale) -75 -140 22.5 -7.5 -150 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 -15.0 14976 2001 15341 2002 2003 15706 16071 Real GDP Growth of Major Trading Partners Compounded annual rates of change Germany United Kingdom 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 00 2000 01 2001 02 2002 03 00 2000 01 2001 02 2002 03 02 2002 03 02 2002 03 France Canada 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 00 2000 01 2001 02 2002 03 00 2000 01 Japan 2001 Mexico 18 45 12 30 6 15 0 0 -6 -15 -12 -30 00 2000 01 2001 02 2002 03 00 2000 01 2001 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 19 updated through 03/14/03 National Economic Trends Output per Hour and Capacity Utilization, Manufacturing Percent change from year ago Percent 15 90 Utilization Rate (level) (right scale) 10 80 5 70 Output/Hour (left scale) 0 60 -5 50 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 Nonfarm Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago 15 10 Nominal 5 Real 0 -5 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 Output per Hour, Nonfarm Business and Nonfarm, Nonfinancial Corporations Percent change from year ago 9 6 Nonfarm Business Sector 3 0 Nonfinancial Corporations -3 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 Research Division 20 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 03/27/03 National Economic Trends Nonfarm Output per Hour Manufacturing Output per Hour Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 10 12 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 2000 14610 2001 14976 2002 15341 15706 2000 14610 2001 14976 2002 15341 15706 Selected Component Shares of National Income Percent Percent 15 77 Corporate Profits (left scale) 13 75 11 73 Compensation (right scale) 9 71 Proprietors’ Income (left scale) 7 69 5 67 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 Corporate Profits after Tax (with IVA and CCAdj) Percent change from year ago 80 60 40 20 All 0 -20 Nonfinancial -40 -60 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 21 updated through 03/27/03 National Economic Trends Nominal GDP Billions of $ 1999. Real GDP Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 1996 $ Final Sales Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 1996 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago Change in Private Inventories Billions of 1996 $ Last qtr Year/Year ago 9274.3 . 5.6 8858.963 . 4.1 8793.899 . 4.3 . 62.755 2000. 9824.6 . 5.9 9191.413 . 3.8 9121.104 . 3.7 . 64.976 2001. 10082.2 . 2.6 9214.540 . 0.3 9258.399 . 1.5 . -61.357 2002. 10446.2 . 3.6 9439.872 . 2.4 9424.375 . 1.8 . 5.162 1999 1 9092.7 4.9 5.4 8733.171 3.0 4.0 8654.269 3.1 4.4 80.016 68.445 . 2 9171.7 3.5 5.5 8775.518 2.0 3.9 8740.974 4.1 4.1 31.181 65.746 . 3 9316.5 6.5 5.7 8886.934 5.2 4.2 8833.593 4.3 4.5 47.626 59.706 . 4 9516.4 8.9 5.9 9040.072 7.1 4.3 8946.605 5.2 4.2 92.198 62.755 2000 1 9649.5 5.7 6.1 9097.421 2.6 4.2 9042.883 4.4 4.5 45.335 54.085 . 2 9820.7 7.3 7.1 9205.711 4.8 4.9 9111.141 3.1 4.2 91.496 69.164 . 3 9874.8 2.2 6.0 9218.681 0.6 3.7 9150.447 1.7 3.6 63.136 73.041 . 4 9953.6 3.2 4.6 9243.840 1.1 2.3 9179.789 1.3 2.6 59.938 64.976 2001 1 10028.1 3.0 3.9 9229.932 -0.6 1.5 9243.767 2.8 2.2 -26.918 46.913 . 2 10049.8 0.9 2.3 9193.054 -1.6 -0.1 9234.349 -0.4 1.4 -58.297 9.465 . 3 10097.8 1.9 2.3 9186.413 -0.3 -0.4 9230.535 -0.2 0.9 -61.772 -21.762 . 4 10152.9 2.2 2.0 9248.762 2.7 0.1 9324.945 4.2 1.6 -98.441 -61.357 2002 1 10313.1 6.5 2.8 9363.225 5.0 1.4 9379.350 2.4 1.5 -28.937 -61.862 . 2 10376.9 2.5 3.3 9392.446 1.3 2.2 9377.871 -0.1 1.6 4.931 -46.055 . 3 10506.2 5.1 4.0 9485.579 4.0 3.3 9457.181 3.4 2.5 18.836 -25.903 . 4 10588.8 3.2 4.3 9518.238 1.4 2.9 9483.099 1.1 1.7 25.820 5.163 Consumption Billions of 1996 $ Durables Consumption Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 1996 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago Private Fixed Investment Billions of 1996 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago Nonresidential Fixed Investment Billions of 1996 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago 1999. 5964.464 . 4.9 812.539 . 11.8 1595.205 . 7.8 1228.392 . 8.1 2000. 6223.930 . 4.4 878.945 . 8.2 1691.893 . 6.1 1324.199 . 7.8 2001. 6377.231 . 2.5 931.888 . 6.0 1627.414 . -3.8 1255.132 . -5.2 2002. 6576.007 . 3.1 999.884 . 7.3 1577.272 . -3.1 1183.377 . -5.7 1999 1 5851.439 4.7 4.9 777.640 5.5 12.3 1560.473 7.7 9.0 1197.451 7.7 8.9 . 2 5932.777 5.7 4.8 804.185 14.4 11.7 1587.565 7.1 7.9 1220.423 7.9 7.8 . 3 6000.079 4.6 5.0 824.116 10.3 13.3 1610.569 5.9 8.4 1243.250 7.7 9.4 . 4 6073.613 5.0 5.0 844.213 10.1 10.0 1622.199 2.9 5.9 1252.433 3.0 6.6 2000 1 6151.862 5.3 5.1 879.506 17.8 13.1 1673.617 13.3 7.3 1297.108 15.0 8.3 . 2 6198.213 3.0 4.5 871.338 -3.7 8.4 1700.940 6.7 7.1 1329.083 10.2 8.9 . 3 6256.821 3.8 4.3 888.464 8.1 7.8 1701.667 0.2 5.7 1340.677 3.5 7.8 . 4 6288.822 2.1 3.5 876.479 -5.3 3.8 1691.347 -2.4 4.3 1329.929 -3.2 6.2 2001 1 6326.008 2.4 2.8 900.596 11.5 2.4 1682.070 -2.2 0.5 1311.445 -5.4 1.1 . 2 6348.006 1.4 2.4 912.358 5.3 4.7 1633.538 -11.1 -4.0 1260.978 -14.5 -5.1 . 3 6370.946 1.5 1.8 922.616 4.6 3.8 1615.663 -4.3 -5.1 1241.712 -6.0 -7.4 . 4 6463.964 6.0 2.8 991.988 33.6 13.2 1578.384 -8.9 -6.7 1206.409 -10.9 -9.3 2002 1 6513.825 3.1 3.0 975.898 -6.3 8.4 1576.408 -0.5 -6.3 1188.412 -5.8 -9.4 . 2 6542.422 1.8 3.1 980.664 2.0 7.5 1572.624 -1.0 -3.7 1181.099 -2.4 -6.3 . 3 6609.881 4.2 3.8 1032.423 22.8 11.9 1571.593 -0.3 -2.7 1178.662 -0.8 -5.1 . 4 6637.901 1.7 2.7 1010.550 -8.2 1.9 1588.462 4.4 0.6 1185.336 2.3 -1.7 Research Division 22 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 03/27/03 National Economic Trends GDP Chain Price Index Index 1999. 104.690 Percent change Annual Year rate ago . 1.4 Employment Cost Index Index 142.4 Percent change Annual Year rate ago . 3.2 ECI: Wages Index 140.3 ECI: Benefits Percent change Annual Year rate ago . 3.4 Index 147.6 Percent change Annual Year rate ago . 2.8 2000. 106.890 . 2.1 149.0 . 4.6 146.0 . 4.1 156.0 . 5.7 2001. 109.420 . 2.4 155.0 . 4.1 151.4 . 3.7 163.7 . 4.9 2002. 110.660 . 1.1 160.8 . 3.7 156.4 . 3.3 171.7 . 4.9 1999 1 104.120 1.8 1.3 140.2 1.1 3.0 138.1 1.8 3.3 145.2 0.0 2.2 . 2 104.520 1.5 1.5 141.8 4.6 3.3 139.7 4.7 3.6 146.7 4.2 2.5 . 3 104.840 1.2 1.4 143.1 3.7 3.2 140.9 3.5 3.2 148.2 4.2 2.8 . 4 105.280 1.7 1.6 144.6 4.3 3.4 142.3 4.0 3.5 150.2 5.5 3.4 2000 1 106.080 3.1 1.9 146.6 5.6 4.6 143.9 4.6 4.2 153.1 7.9 5.4 . 2 106.690 2.3 2.1 148.3 4.7 4.6 145.4 4.2 4.1 155.1 5.3 5.7 . 3 107.130 1.7 2.2 149.8 4.1 4.7 146.7 3.6 4.1 157.0 5.0 5.9 . 4 107.680 2.1 2.3 151.1 3.5 4.5 147.9 3.3 3.9 158.8 4.7 5.7 2001 1 108.660 3.7 2.4 152.8 4.6 4.2 149.4 4.1 3.8 160.8 5.1 5.0 . 2 109.320 2.5 2.5 154.3 4.0 4.0 150.9 4.1 3.8 162.5 4.3 4.8 . 3 109.920 2.2 2.6 155.7 3.7 3.9 152.0 2.9 3.6 164.7 5.5 4.9 . 4 109.780 -0.5 2.0 157.3 4.2 4.1 153.4 3.7 3.7 166.8 5.2 5.0 2002 1 110.140 1.3 1.4 158.7 3.6 3.9 154.8 3.7 3.6 168.6 4.4 4.9 . 2 110.480 1.2 1.1 160.4 4.4 4.0 156.3 3.9 3.6 170.9 5.6 5.2 . 3 110.760 1.0 0.8 161.4 2.5 3.7 156.9 1.5 3.2 172.6 4.0 4.8 . 4 111.250 1.8 1.3 162.5 2.8 3.3 157.6 1.8 2.7 174.7 5.0 4.7 Exports Billions of 1996 $ Nonfarm Output per Hour Imports Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 1996 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago Nonfarm Compensation per Hour Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago 1999. 1036.329 . 3.4 1356.816 . 10.9 112.9 . 2.4 124.3 . 4.4 2000. 1137.199 . 9.7 1535.958 . 13.2 116.2 . 2.9 133.0 . 7.0 2001. 1076.121 . -5.4 1492.010 . -2.9 117.5 . 1.1 136.6 . 2.7 2002. 1058.832 . -1.6 1547.373 . 3.7 123.1 . 4.8 140.5 . 2.9 1999 1 1007.490 -6.9 0.4 1290.659 8.4 9.0 112.1 2.5 2.3 123.2 7.1 5.4 . 2 1018.076 4.3 2.5 1337.698 15.4 10.0 111.9 -0.7 1.9 123.4 0.7 4.0 . 3 1044.100 10.6 5.7 1383.736 14.5 12.6 112.9 3.6 2.4 124.5 3.6 3.8 . 4 1075.631 12.6 4.9 1415.153 9.4 11.9 114.7 6.5 3.0 126.3 5.9 4.3 2000 1 1095.781 7.7 8.8 1464.619 14.7 13.5 114.7 0.0 2.3 130.8 15.0 6.2 . 2 1133.877 14.6 11.4 1528.465 18.6 14.3 116.4 6.1 4.0 131.5 2.2 6.6 . 3 1165.469 11.6 11.6 1578.615 13.8 14.1 116.6 0.7 3.3 134.3 8.8 7.9 . 4 1153.668 -4.0 7.3 1572.152 -1.6 11.1 117.1 1.7 2.1 135.3 3.0 7.1 2001 1 1135.809 -6.0 3.7 1540.311 -7.9 5.2 116.7 -1.4 1.7 136.3 3.0 4.2 . 2 1098.832 -12.4 -3.1 1513.594 -6.8 -1.0 116.6 -0.3 0.2 136.3 0.0 3.7 . 3 1048.017 -17.3 -10.1 1466.988 -11.8 -7.1 117.2 2.1 0.5 136.7 1.2 1.8 . 4 1021.827 -9.6 -11.4 1447.158 -5.3 -8.0 119.3 7.4 1.9 137.2 1.5 1.4 2002 1 1030.560 3.5 -9.3 1477.140 8.5 -4.1 121.8 8.6 4.4 138.1 2.6 1.3 . 2 1065.526 14.3 -3.0 1552.919 22.2 2.6 122.3 1.7 4.9 139.5 4.1 2.3 . 3 1077.659 4.6 2.8 1565.680 3.3 6.7 123.9 5.3 5.7 141.3 5.3 3.4 . 4 1061.584 -5.8 3.9 1593.755 7.4 10.1 124.2 1.0 4.1 142.9 4.6 4.2 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 23 updated through 03/07/03 National Economic Trends Household Survey Employment Percent change Annual Year rate ago Nonfarm Payroll Employment Nonfarm Aggregate Hours Change 1998. 131476 1904 . 1.5 125851 3180 . 2.6 145.2 . . 2.7 1999. 133498 2022 . 1.5 128904 3053 . 2.4 148.4 . . 2.2 2000. 136899 3401 . 2.5 131719 2814 . 2.2 151.3 . . 1.9 2001. 136941 42 . 0.0 131925 207 . 0.2 150.0 . . -0.8 2002. 136486 -455 . -0.3 130776 -1149 . -0.9 148.0 . . -1.4 2000 1 136641 2389 7.3 2.8 130995 882 2.7 2.5 150.9 0.6 2.5 2.7 . 2 136947 306 0.9 2.8 131819 824 2.5 2.6 151.3 0.2 1.0 2.3 . 3 136680 -267 -0.8 2.3 131876 57 0.2 2.1 151.4 0.1 0.3 1.8 . 4 137329 648 1.9 2.3 132185 309 0.9 1.6 151.5 0.1 0.3 1.0 2001 1 137752 424 1.2 0.8 132433 249 0.8 1.1 151.3 -0.1 -0.4 0.3 . 2 137086 -666 -1.9 0.1 132193 -240 -0.7 0.3 150.7 -0.4 -1.6 -0.4 . 3 136707 -379 -1.1 0.0 131943 -250 -0.8 0.1 149.8 -0.6 -2.5 -1.1 . 4 136218 -488 -1.4 -0.8 131130 -813 -2.4 -0.8 148.2 -1.0 -4.0 -2.2 2002 1 136128 -90 -0.3 -1.2 130759 -371 -1.1 -1.3 148.0 -0.1 -0.5 -2.2 . 2 136355 227 0.7 -0.5 130706 -53 -0.2 -1.1 148.1 0.1 0.3 -1.7 . 3 136804 449 1.3 0.1 130844 138 0.4 -0.8 147.9 -0.2 -0.7 -1.3 . 4 136656 -148 -0.4 0.3 130795 -49 -0.1 -0.3 147.9 0.0 0.1 -0.2 2001 Feb 137648 -198 -1.7 0.7 132457 75 0.7 1.2 151.1 -0.5 -5.4 0.1 137763 115 1.0 0.8 132461 4 0.0 0.8 151.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 Mar Index Percent change Monthly Annual Year rate rate ago Thousands . Thousands Change Percent change Annual Year rate ago . Apr 137353 -410 -3.5 0.0 132243 -218 -2.0 0.5 150.9 -0.1 -1.6 -0.5 . May 137036 -317 -2.7 0.3 132229 -14 -0.1 0.3 150.8 -0.1 -0.8 -0.1 . Jun 136869 -167 -1.5 -0.1 132108 -121 -1.1 0.1 150.5 -0.2 -2.4 -0.5 . Jul 137006 137 1.2 0.4 132045 -63 -0.6 0.2 150.2 -0.2 -2.4 -0.8 . Aug 136256 -750 -6.4 -0.3 131966 -79 -0.7 0.1 149.7 -0.3 -3.9 -1.1 . Sep 136858 602 5.4 -0.0 131819 -147 -1.3 -0.2 149.4 -0.2 -2.4 -1.4 . Oct 136370 -488 -4.2 -0.5 131414 -405 -3.6 -0.5 148.5 -0.6 -7.0 -2.2 . Nov 136218 -152 -1.3 -0.8 131087 -327 -2.9 -0.9 148.1 -0.3 -3.2 -2.4 . Dec 136067 -151 -1.3 -1.1 130890 -197 -1.8 -1.1 148.1 0.0 0.0 -1.9 2002 Jan 135791 -276 -2.4 -1.5 130871 -19 -0.2 -1.1 148.0 -0.1 -0.8 -2.5 . Feb 136450 659 6.0 -0.9 130706 -165 -1.5 -1.3 148.1 0.1 0.8 -2.0 . Mar 136143 -307 -2.7 -1.2 130701 -5 -0.0 -1.3 148.0 -0.1 -0.8 -2.1 . Apr 136196 53 0.5 -0.8 130680 -21 -0.2 -1.2 148.0 0.0 0.0 -1.9 . May 136487 291 2.6 -0.4 130702 22 0.2 -1.2 148.0 0.0 0.0 -1.9 . Jun 136383 -104 -0.9 -0.4 130736 34 0.3 -1.0 148.4 0.3 3.3 -1.4 . Jul 136343 -40 -0.4 -0.5 130790 54 0.5 -1.0 147.4 -0.7 -7.8 -1.9 . Aug 136757 414 3.7 0.4 130913 123 1.1 -0.8 147.9 0.3 4.1 -1.2 . Sep 137312 555 5.0 0.3 130829 -84 -0.8 -0.8 148.3 0.3 3.3 -0.7 . Oct 136988 -324 -2.8 0.5 130898 69 0.6 -0.4 148.1 -0.1 -1.6 -0.3 . Nov 136542 -446 -3.8 0.2 130817 -81 -0.7 -0.2 147.9 -0.1 -1.6 -0.1 . Dec 136439 -103 -0.9 0.3 130670 -147 -1.3 -0.2 147.7 -0.1 -1.6 -0.3 2003 Jan 137536 1097 10.1 1.3 130855 185 1.7 -0.0 148.5 0.5 6.7 0.3 137408 -128 -1.1 0.7 130547 -308 -2.8 -0.1 147.0 -1.0 -11.5 -0.7 . Feb Research Division 24 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 04/01/03 National Economic Trends Retail and Food Services Sales Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago Industrial Production Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago Treasury Yields Unempl. Rate Billions of dollars 1998. 4.5 2907.356 . . 5.0 105.622 . . 5.6 4.78 5.26 1999. 4.2 3151.004 . . 8.4 110.131 . . 4.3 4.64 5.64 2000. 4.0 3360.754 . . 6.7 115.252 . . 4.7 5.82 6.03 2001. 4.8 3491.584 . . 3.9 111.229 . . -3.5 3.39 5.02 2002. 5.8 3607.555 . . 3.3 110.400 . . -0.7 1.60 4.61 2001 1 4.2 859.776 1.5 6.2 2.9 113.631 -1.6 -6.1 -0.2 4.82 5.05 . 2 4.5 868.614 1.0 4.2 4.1 111.847 -1.6 -6.1 -3.4 3.66 5.27 . 3 4.8 867.084 -0.2 -0.7 2.8 110.542 -1.2 -4.6 -4.6 3.17 4.98 . 4 5.6 896.110 3.3 14.1 5.8 108.895 -1.5 -5.8 -5.7 1.91 4.77 2002 1 5.6 886.700 -1.1 -4.1 3.1 109.268 0.3 1.4 -3.8 1.72 5.08 . 2 5.8 896.843 1.1 4.7 3.2 110.459 1.1 4.4 -1.2 1.72 5.10 . 3 5.8 911.015 1.6 6.5 5.1 111.375 0.8 3.4 0.8 1.64 4.26 . 4 5.9 912.997 0.2 0.9 1.9 110.499 -0.8 -3.1 1.5 1.33 4.01 2003 1 . . . . . . . . . 1.16 3.92 2001 Mar 4.2 285.716 -0.5 -6.0 1.4 113.075 -0.5 -5.6 -1.2 4.42 4.89 Index (Percent) 3-mo 10-yr . Apr 4.4 288.366 0.9 11.7 3.8 112.550 -0.5 -5.4 -2.4 3.87 5.14 . May 4.4 290.567 0.8 9.6 4.7 111.847 -0.6 -7.2 -3.6 3.62 5.39 . Jun 4.6 289.681 -0.3 -3.6 3.9 111.145 -0.6 -7.3 -4.4 3.49 5.28 . Jul 4.6 289.971 0.1 1.2 3.5 110.996 -0.1 -1.6 -4.3 3.51 5.24 . Aug 4.9 290.791 0.3 3.4 3.9 110.696 -0.3 -3.2 -4.3 3.36 4.97 . Sep 5.0 286.322 -1.5 -17.0 0.9 109.933 -0.7 -8.0 -5.3 2.64 4.73 4.57 . Oct 5.4 304.043 6.2 105.6 7.6 109.512 -0.4 -4.5 -5.3 2.16 . Nov 5.6 296.278 -2.6 -26.7 5.3 108.845 -0.6 -7.1 -5.8 1.87 4.65 . Dec 5.8 295.789 -0.2 -2.0 4.5 108.327 -0.5 -5.6 -5.9 1.69 5.09 2002 Jan 5.04 5.6 294.130 -0.6 -6.5 2.5 108.967 0.6 7.3 -4.6 1.65 . Feb 5.6 296.371 0.8 9.5 3.2 109.197 0.2 2.6 -3.9 1.73 4.91 . Mar 5.7 296.199 -0.1 -0.7 3.7 109.641 0.4 5.0 -3.0 1.79 5.28 . Apr 5.9 299.642 1.2 14.9 3.9 110.113 0.4 5.3 -2.2 1.72 5.21 . May 5.8 296.567 -1.0 -11.6 2.1 110.447 0.3 3.7 -1.3 1.73 5.16 . Jun 5.8 300.634 1.4 17.8 3.8 110.818 0.3 4.1 -0.3 1.70 4.93 . Jul 5.8 304.218 1.2 15.3 4.9 111.577 0.7 8.5 0.5 1.68 4.65 . Aug 5.8 305.616 0.5 5.7 5.1 111.305 -0.2 -2.9 0.6 1.62 4.26 . Sep 5.7 301.181 -1.5 -16.1 5.2 111.242 -0.1 -0.7 1.2 1.63 3.87 3.94 . Oct 5.8 301.551 0.1 1.5 -0.8 110.580 -0.6 -6.9 1.0 1.58 . Nov 5.9 303.385 0.6 7.5 2.4 110.797 0.2 2.4 1.8 1.23 4.05 . Dec 6.0 308.061 1.5 20.1 4.1 110.120 -0.6 -7.1 1.7 1.19 4.03 2003 Jan 5.7 308.967 0.3 3.6 5.0 110.971 0.8 9.7 1.8 1.17 4.05 . Feb 5.8 304.092 -1.6 -17.4 2.6 111.108 0.1 1.5 1.8 1.17 3.90 . Mar . . . . . . . . . 1.13 3.81 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 25 updated through 03/21/03 National Economic Trends Consumer Price Index less Food and Energy Consumer Price Index Index Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year Year quarterly rate ago to date Index Producer Price Index Finished Goods Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year Year quarterly rate ago to date Index Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago 1998. 163.0 . . 1.5 . 173.4 . . 2.3 . 130.7 . . -0.9 1999. 166.6 . . 2.2 . 177.0 . . 2.1 . 133.0 . . 1.8 2000. 172.2 . . 3.4 . 181.3 . . 2.4 . 138.0 . . 3.7 2001. 177.1 . . 2.8 . 186.1 . . 2.7 . 140.7 . . 2.0 2002. 179.9 . . 1.6 . 190.4 . . 2.3 . 138.9 . . -1.3 2000 1 170.1 1.0 3.9 3.3 3.9 179.5 0.6 2.6 2.2 2.6 136.3 1.1 4.3 3.7 . 2 171.5 0.8 3.3 3.3 3.6 180.7 0.7 2.7 2.4 2.6 137.4 0.8 3.1 3.9 . 3 173.0 0.9 3.6 3.5 3.6 181.9 0.6 2.6 2.5 2.6 138.5 0.8 3.2 3.7 . 4 174.2 0.7 2.9 3.4 3.4 183.0 0.6 2.4 2.6 2.6 139.9 1.0 4.1 3.7 2001 1 175.9 0.9 3.8 3.4 3.8 184.3 0.7 2.9 2.7 2.9 141.7 1.3 5.4 4.0 . 2 177.3 0.8 3.2 3.4 3.5 185.5 0.6 2.6 2.6 2.8 142.0 0.2 0.8 3.4 . 3 177.7 0.2 1.0 2.7 2.7 186.7 0.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 140.7 -0.9 -3.5 1.6 . 4 177.4 -0.2 -0.6 1.8 1.8 188.0 0.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 138.4 -1.7 -6.6 -1.1 2002 1 178.0 0.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 189.0 0.5 2.1 2.5 2.1 138.3 -0.0 -0.1 -2.4 . 2 179.5 0.9 3.5 1.3 2.4 190.0 0.5 2.1 2.4 2.1 138.7 0.2 1.0 -2.3 . 3 180.5 0.5 2.2 1.6 2.3 191.0 0.5 2.2 2.3 2.2 138.7 0.0 0.2 -1.4 . 4 181.4 0.5 2.0 2.2 2.2 191.8 0.4 1.8 2.1 2.1 139.7 0.7 2.8 1.0 2001 Feb 176.0 0.2 2.8 3.6 4.9 184.3 0.2 2.6 2.7 3.3 142.0 0.2 2.6 4.0 Mar 176.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 3.2 184.8 0.3 3.3 2.7 3.3 141.5 -0.4 -4.1 3.1 . Apr 176.5 0.3 3.5 3.3 3.3 185.1 0.2 2.0 2.6 3.0 142.0 0.4 4.3 3.7 . May 177.4 0.5 6.3 3.6 3.9 185.4 0.2 2.0 2.6 2.8 142.3 0.2 2.6 3.8 . Jun 177.9 0.3 3.4 3.3 3.8 186.0 0.3 4.0 2.7 3.0 141.7 -0.4 -4.9 2.6 . . Jul 177.5 -0.2 -2.7 2.8 2.9 186.4 0.2 2.6 2.7 2.9 140.2 -1.1 -12.0 1.4 . Aug 177.5 0.0 0.0 2.8 2.5 186.7 0.2 1.9 2.6 2.8 140.7 0.4 4.4 2.0 . Sep 178.1 0.3 4.1 2.6 2.7 187.1 0.2 2.6 2.6 2.8 141.3 0.4 5.2 1.6 . Oct 177.6 -0.3 -3.3 2.1 2.1 187.4 0.2 1.9 2.6 2.7 139.1 -1.6 -17.2 -0.3 . Nov 177.4 -0.1 -1.3 1.8 1.8 188.1 0.4 4.6 2.7 2.9 138.3 -0.6 -6.7 -1.2 . Dec 177.3 -0.1 -0.7 1.5 1.5 188.4 0.2 1.9 2.8 2.8 137.7 -0.4 -5.1 -1.7 2002 Jan -2.8 177.6 0.2 2.0 1.1 2.0 188.7 0.2 1.9 2.6 1.9 137.7 0.0 0.0 . Feb 177.9 0.2 2.0 1.1 2.0 189.0 0.2 1.9 2.6 1.9 138.1 0.3 3.5 -2.7 . Mar 178.5 0.3 4.1 1.4 2.7 189.2 0.1 1.3 2.4 1.7 139.2 0.8 10.0 -1.6 . Apr 179.3 0.4 5.5 1.6 3.4 189.7 0.3 3.2 2.5 2.1 139.0 -0.1 -1.7 -2.1 . May 179.5 0.1 1.3 1.2 3.0 190.0 0.2 1.9 2.5 2.1 138.4 -0.4 -5.1 -2.7 . Jun 179.8 0.2 2.0 1.1 2.8 190.2 0.1 1.3 2.3 1.9 138.6 0.1 1.7 -2.2 . Jul 180.1 0.2 2.0 1.5 2.7 190.5 0.2 1.9 2.2 1.9 138.6 0.0 0.0 -1.1 . Aug 180.5 0.2 2.7 1.7 2.7 191.1 0.3 3.8 2.4 2.2 138.6 0.0 0.0 -1.5 . Sep 180.9 0.2 2.7 1.6 2.7 191.4 0.2 1.9 2.3 2.1 139.0 0.3 3.5 -1.6 . Oct 181.2 0.2 2.0 2.0 2.6 191.6 0.1 1.3 2.2 2.0 140.1 0.8 9.9 0.7 . Nov 181.4 0.1 1.3 2.3 2.5 191.8 0.1 1.3 2.0 2.0 139.6 -0.4 -4.2 0.9 . Dec 181.6 0.1 1.3 2.4 2.4 192.1 0.2 1.9 2.0 2.0 139.4 -0.1 -1.7 1.2 2003 Jan 182.2 0.3 4.0 2.6 4.0 192.3 0.1 1.3 1.9 1.3 141.6 1.6 20.7 2.8 183.3 0.6 7.5 3.0 5.7 192.5 0.1 1.3 1.9 1.3 143.0 1.0 12.5 3.5 . Feb Research Division 26 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis National Economic Trends Notes Pages 4, 5: Final sales is gross domestic product (GDP) minus change in private inventories. Advance, preliminary, and final GDP growth rates are released during the first, second, and third months of the following quarter. Changes result from incorporation of more complete information. Real GDP is measured in 1996 dollars. The ISM (formerly Purchasing Managers’) index is a weighted average of diffusion indexes for new orders, production, supplier deliveries, inventories, and employment. Aggregate and average weekly hours are paid hours of production and nonsupervisory employees. The inventorysales ratio uses nominal (current-dollar) inventory and sales data. Page 6: For information on how to calculate the contribution of a component to the overall GDP growth rate, see the October 1999 issue of the Survey of Current Business, p. 16. The sign is changed for imports. Page 7: Ten-year Treasury yields are adjusted to constant maturity; threemonth yields are secondary market averages. All rates used in the yield curves are adjusted to constant maturity. The 30-year constant maturity series was discontinued by the Treasury Department as of Feb. 18, 2002. Standard and Poor’s 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends shows the total return: capital gains plus dividends. Pages 8, 9: Oil (West Texas intermediate) and Natural Gas (Henry Hub) spot and futures prices are listed in the Wall Street Journal. Spot prices are monthly averages of daily prices; futures prices are usually taken from the last trading day of the month. Consumer price index is for all urban consumers. The consumption chain price index is the index associated with the personal consumption expenditures component of GDP. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) covers private nonfarm employers. ECI compensation refers to a fixed sample of jobs, while compensation per hour covers all workers in the nonfarm business sector in a given quarter. In both cases, compensation is wages and salaries plus benefits. Pages 10, 11: Nonfarm payroll employment is counted in a survey of about 390,000 establishments (Current Employment Survey). It excludes selfemployed individuals and workers in private households, but double-counts individuals with more than one job. The household survey (Current Population Survey) of about 50,000 households provides estimates of civilian employment, unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and employment-population ratio. Population is civilian, noninstitutional, 16 years and over. The 90 percent confidence intervals for the unemployment rate (± 0.2 percentage points) and change in household survey employment (± 376,000) measure uncertainty due to sample size. The available labor supply is the sum of the unemployed and those persons not in the labor force but who want to work now. Because the household survey was changed in January 1994, data prior to this date are not strictly comparable. The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced several revisions to the Household Survey on Feb. 7, 2003, with the release of the January 2003 data. They introduced the Census 2000 population controls (which affect data back to 2000 and cause a break in the data in January 2000), a new seasonal adjustment procedure, and new seasonal factors back to January 1998. For more information, see <www.bls.gov/cps/>. Page 13: The Michigan consumer sentiment index shows changes in a summary measure of consumers’ answers to five questions about their current and expected financial situation, expectations about future economic conditions, and attitudes about making large purchases. The survey is based on a representative sample of U.S. households. Pages 14, 15: Overall gross saving includes government saving, which is the sum of the government surplus and capital consumption (see notes for pp. 16-17). Net foreign investment (NFI) is U.S. investment abroad minus foreign investment in the U.S. Aside from a statistical discrepancy, NFI also equals the difference between gross domestic investment and saving. The comprehensive revision introduced the equipment & software component of business investment. Pages 16, 17: Government consumption and investment is current expenditures on goods and services, including capital consumption (depreciation) and gross investment, as reported in the NIPAs. The unified federal budget surplus/deficit differs from NIPA basis in four main ways: (1) NIPA excludes Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis transactions involving existing assets; (2) NIPA outlays exclude government investment and include consumption of government capital, while unified budget outlays do the reverse; (3) NIPA accounts exclude Puerto Rico and U.S. territories; and (4) various timing issues are handled differently. Outlays and receipts are from the NIPAs, except as noted. Since 1977, the federal fiscal year starts on October 1. Excluded agency debt was 0.6 percent of federal debt at the end of fiscal 1997. Federal debt held by the public includes holdings of the Federal Reserve System and excludes holdings of the social security and other federal trust funds. Federal grants in aid to state and local governments appear in both state and local receipts and federal outlays. Pages 18, 19: The trade balance (shown on a balance of payments basis) is the difference between exports and imports of goods (merchandise) and services. It is nearly identical in concept to the net exports component of GDP, but differs slightly in accounting details. The investment income balance equals income received from U.S.-owned assets in other countries minus income paid on foreign-owned assets in the U.S. The investment income balance is nearly identical in concept to the difference between gross national product and gross domestic product, but differs in accounting details. The current account balance is the trade balance plus the balance on investment income plus net unilateral transfers to the U.S. from other countries. Pages 20, 21: Output per hour (Y/H), unit labor cost (C/Y), and compensation per hour (C/H) are indexes which approximately obey the following relationship: %(Y/H) + %(C/Y) = %(C/H) with %() meaning percent changes. Unit labor cost is shown on page 9. Real compensation per hour uses the CPI to adjust for the effects of inflation. Nonfarm business accounted for about 76 percent of the value of GDP in 1996, while nonfinancial corporations accounted for about 54 percent. Inventory valuation adjustments (IVA) remove the effect of changes in the value of existing inventories from corporate profits and proprietors’ income. (This change in value does not correspond to current production and therefore is not part of GDP). Capital consumption adjustments (CCAdj) increase profits and proprietors’ income by the difference between estimates of economic depreciation and depreciation allowed by the tax code. Components of national income not shown are rental income of persons and net interest. NOTE: Measures of retail sales (pp. 12-13), manufacturers’ orders, shipments and inventories (p. 15), and the total business inventory-to-sales ratio (p. 5) are based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). Before January 1992, data are on the old Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system. For more information, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html. Sources Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Dept. of Commerce National income and product accounts, international trade and investment data (except by country), auto and light truck sales Census Bureau, U.S. Dept. of Commerce Inventory-sales ratios, retail sales, capital goods orders, housing starts, exports and imports by country Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Dept. of Labor All employment-related data, employment cost index, consumer and producer price indexes, unit labor cost, output per hour, compensation per hour, multifactor productivity United States Department of Treasury Unified budget receipts, outlays, deficit, debt Federal Reserve Board Index of industrial production, treasury yields, exchange rates, capacity utilization, household debt The Survey Research Center, The University of Michigan Consumer sentiment index The Conference Board Help-wanted advertising index Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) GDP for major trading partners (not available on FRED) 27
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