Full text of National Economic Trends : April 1998
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A pril 1998
IcTrends
Improving Production
Management
M anufacturers can be lo o sely categorized into tw o
groups: those that produce to order and those that pro
duce to stock (in anticipation o f dem and). In reality
the distinction is blurry— som e firm s m ay do both.
A firm that produces to order m ay keep an inventory
o f w o rk -in -p ro cess that they com plete to fill orders.
C onceptually, a “ju st-in -tim e ” producer neither holds
inventory nor back logs orders, but instead adjusts pro
duction “au tom atically” w ith demand.
B ecau se the production process takes tim e, firm s
rely on forecasts o f dem and to determ ine production
plans. T he accuracy o f those forecasts w ill determ ine
h ow m uch undesirable variation there is in the produc
tion schedule, with firm s adjusting production if they
realize their forecasts are wrong.
The amount o f unfilled orders or inventory relative
to sales m easures the possible mismatch between pro
duction and sales. A firm that produces to order w ill
monitor the backlog o f unfilled orders, w hile a firm that
produces to stock w ill monitor the level o f inventory. If
unfilled orders rise above som e desired level, or inven
tories fall b elow som e desired level, production is sped
up by increasing overtim e, adding new shifts or even
adding new capacity. If the reverse occurs, production
is slow ed dow n. If the m iscalculation is large enough,
this m ight even result in temporary layoffs.
A s innovations in inform ation technology becom e
m ore com p reh en sively incorporated into the econom y,
one w ou ld exp ect that both the forecasting capabilities
and the production m anagem ent process w ill im prove.
R etailers w ill get better inform ation about the market,
and im proved com m unication with suppliers should
reduce unw anted inventory, im prove delivery tim es
and reduce back logged orders. Even if not all firms
adopt “ju st-in -tim e ” production, w e should observe
an im provem ent in the m anagem ent o f production.
At the manufacturing stage, both unfilled orders
and inventory as ratios to m onthly shipm ents have fall
en since the 1990-91 recession (see chart) and are now
at historical low s. The ratio o f manufacturing unfilled
orders to monthly shipm ents has fallen from 2.31 in
March 1991 to 1.61 in D ecem ber 1997. The ratio o f
manufacturing inventory to monthly shipm ents fell
from 1.75 in March 1991 to 1.35 by D ecem ber 1997.
T his suggests that the production process is becom ing
more streamlined, and supports anecdotal evidence
that firms are using information technology to im prove
production m anagem ent. A low er level o f unfilled
orders indicates faster response o f manufacturers w ho
produce to order, and a low er level o f inventory to sales
indicates either better forecasts or improved inventory
m anagem ent. Errors in predicting demand are thought
to be partly responsible for m ost post-w ar recessions.
Improved production m anagem ent w ill not only free up
resources that w ould otherw ise be tied up in inventory,
but may even help reduce sw ings in the econom y.
-D o n a ld S. A llen
Views expressed d o not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System
Tabi eofContents
Page
3
Economy at a glance
4
Output and growth
7
Interest rates
8
Inflation and prices
10
Labor markets
12
Consumer spending
14
Investment spending
16
Government revenues, spending, and debt
18
International trade
20
Productivity and profits
22
Quick reference tables
27
Notes and sources
Conventions used in this publication:
1. Charts and tables contain data that were current on March 30, 1998.
2. Shaded areas indicate recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
3. Percent change refers to simple percent changes. Percent change from year ago refers to the percent change from the same
month or quarter in the previous year. The percent change at annual rate shows what the growth rate would be over an entire year
if the same simple percent change continued for four quarters or twelve months. The percent change at annual rate of X between
the previous quarter t-1 and the current quarter t is:
For monthly data replace 4 with 12.
4. All data with significant seasonal patterns are seasonally adjusted, unless labeled NSA.
National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. For more information on data, please call (314) 444-8573.
Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing to the Public Affairs Office, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442
or by calling (314) 444-8808 or (314) 444-8809. Information in this publication is also included on the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board at
(314) 621-1824 or Internet World Wide Web server at http://www stls.frb.org/fred.
National EconomicTrends
Real GDP Growth
Consumer Price Index
Percent change at annual rate
6
Percent change
0.5 - ...............................
1994
1995
1996
1997
Industrial Production
Interest Rates
Percent change
Percent
8 - .......
1.8
-
...........................................................
1995
1996
1997
1998
Change In Nonfarm Payrolls
1995
1996
1997
1998
1996
1997
1998
Unemployment Rate
Thousands
600 -
Percent of labor force
6.0
-
..................................
4.0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1995
3
HationaiEconomicTrends
Real Gross Domestic Product
Percent change from year ago
Industrial Production and Purchasing Managers’ (NAPM) Indexes
Percent change from year ago
Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours
Percent change from year ago
Real Change in Business Inventories
Percent of GDP
2-
Index
National Economic Trends
Real Final Sales and GDP
Real GDP Revisions
Percent change at annua! rate
6
8
Percent change at annual rate
-
1—
Preliminary
Annual Revision
Advance
Y/////M Final
64—
2-
1995
1996
0-
1997
96:4
97:2
97:3
97:4
Nominal Gross Domestic Product
Industrial Production and NAPM Index
Index
Percent change
1.8 -
97:1
-
................................
68
Percent change at annual rate
10 -
.......................... - .................................................................
1995
Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours
Average Weekly Private Nonfarm Hours
Percent change
Hours
35.0 —
- 2 -|................................r............................... 1............................... 1
1996
1997
1998
33.5
1996
Real Change In Business Inventories
Inventory-Sales Ratio
Billions of 1992 dollars
80 -
Manufacturing and trade
1.46 -
1997
1996
1997
1
1998
1.43
1.40
1.37
1.34
1995
1996
1997
1.31
5
National EconomicTrends
Contribution of Components to Real GDP Growth
Percent change at annual rate
1 0 -t---------------------------- *--------- -—
96Q1
96Q2
96Q3
Consumption
96Q4
9701
97Q3
97Q4
Real GDP
I______ I Government
Exports
I Imports
97Q2
Investment
D Inventories
Contributions to Real GDP Growth Rate
1996
1st
~2m T
3rd
1997
“ 1st ■
_
2nd
3rd
4til
Real GDP
1.77
5.97
1.03
4.31
j
4.89
3.31
3.07
3.71
Final Sales
2.56
5.22
0.16
4.49
j
3.02
2.48
4.69
2.28
-0 .8 3
0.78
0.96
-0 .2 9
I
1.76
0.79
-1 .6 7
1.48
Consumption
2.13
2.53
0.35
2.22
j
3.56
0.64
3.78
1.67
Fixed Investment
Nonresidential
Residential
1.49
2.02
1.46
0.45
1.84
2.13
0.29
1.34
1.72
0.66
jI
j
0.59
1.19
0.47
1.59
2.1 1
- 0 .1 0
0.31
0.66
-0 .1 8
-0 .1 7
I
0.13
0.28
0.10
0.34
0.32
1.29
-0 .2 0
0.02
-0 .0 8
0.54
0.19
0.05
0.49
0.58
-0 .2 9
-0 .3 5
I
j
-0 .3 8
0.41
-0 .0 7
- 0 .1 5
- 0 .1 6
0.71
0.08
0.37
{
0.31
0.13
0.26
0.20
- 1 .4 4
-0 .6 9
-1 .5 1
1.93
-1 .1 8
- 0 .5 8
-1 .5 3
0.27
1.24
2.26
0.59
1.09
Change in Inventory
Government
Federal
State and Local
Net Exports
Exports
Imports
Residual
6
0.21
1.13
0.23
2.89
I
I
- 1 .6 5
-1 .8 1
-1 .7 3
-0 .9 4
j
-2 .3 9
-2 .8 0
-2 .1 1
-0 .8 1
- 0 .0 3
-0 .0 8
-0 .1 0
Ì
0.20
0.02
0.14
- 0 .0 4
0.1 1
Nat iona IEconomic Trends
Interest Rates
Percent
Treasury Yield Curve
Percent
7.5 - ..............................
7.0 -
4 .5 4.0 - .............................................................................................................................................................................. / ..................................
3m
1y
2y
5y
7y
10y
30y
Total Return on Standard and Poor’s 500
Percent change from year ago
50
25
0
-2 5
-5 0
7
National EconomicTrends
GDP Chain Price Index
Percent change from year ago
12
A
10 -
H
V
\
-W
-
_l
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
!
84
!
85
!
86
!
87
!
88
j
89
r
90
Consumer Price Index
Percent change from year ago
Producer Price Index, Finished Goods
Percent change from year ago
Employment Cost Index and Compensation per Hour
Percent change from year ago
15
|||
H I
®S-
f
8
Comp, per Hour
ECI
!
91
j
92
!
93
!
94
!
95
j
96
97
National EconomicTrends
GDP Chain Price Index
Crude Oil Price
Percent change at annual rate
4 —...—....-.............................
Dollars per barrel
28 - ....................
121
1993
1 1994
1 1995
'
Consumer Price Index
Consumption Chain Price Index
Percent change
0.5 - ..............................
Percent change at annual rate
4 - .................................................
Producer Price Index, Finished Goods
Unit Labor Cost
Percent change
Forcent change at annual rate
6 - ................... ...
Nonfarm
Employment Cost Index
Compensation per Hour
Percent change from year ago
8 - .........................................
Forcent change at annual rate
6 - ..........................................
1996
1 1997
1 1998
National EconomicTrends
Employment
Percent change from year ago
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
Unemployment, Labor Force Participation and Employment Rates
Percent of labor force
15-
12
Percent of population
.......................... - 70
Labor Force/Population
;............................
-
_ 67
9-
6 -# ,
58
0
73
Duration of Unemployment
Percent of labor force
4.50 mmmm
..............................n r ...
Weeks
.............................................................mm........................................
-1 6
HationaìEconomicTrends
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls
Change in Manufacturing Payrolls
Thousands
600 - ........
Thousands
60 - .........
-6 0 T
1996
1997
1997
1996
1998
Change in Household Employment
Labor Force and Population
Thousands
600 ...........
Percent change from year ago
2.5 - ........................................
0.0
I
1993
I
1994
I
1995
Unemployment Rate
Help-Wanted Advertising
Percent
Index
95
6.0
-
40 1 ......................... r...................— r.............. .
1996
1997
1998
1998
I
1996
I
1997
i
1998
Percent
-
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
8.0
1998
11
National Economic!rends
Real Disposable Income
Percent change from year ago, quarterly data
Real Consumption
Percent change from year ago
Percent change from year ago
Retail Sales
Percent change from year ago of quarterly average
-4
72
i
73
i—
74
r......i.......ï
i
I...... r ... i..." t " i.......i....... i...... i.......i.......i .......i.......i... '" T ..... i.......i...... i.......i.......t...... i.......i
75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97
Debt Service as Percent of Disposable Income
Percent
18-
12
Percent
-
12
NationaìEconomicTrends
Real Disposable Income
Personal Saving Rate
Percent change
Percent
8 - .......
1.00
-
........-
0.75 —
0.50
il. Il II illll.il l.lll
0.25 - I
0.00
-0.25
-0.50 -
Tl
-0.75 —
2 ......................................................................................
-1.00 T
1996
1997
1998
1993
’ 1994
Real Consumption
Real Consumption
Percent change
8 - ........................
1.6 -
' 1995
' 1996
' 1997
[ 1998
Percent change
1.2
.................................................
-
-0 .8 T
1996
f
1997
f
1998
Retail Sales
Real Durables Consumption and Vehicle Sales
Percent change
2.25 —
Percent change
9 - ................
Millions of vehicles, annual rate
- 16.0
Autos and light trucks
- 6 -]............................I............................I............................r 13.5
1996
1997
1998
Consumer Sentiment (U. of Michigan)
Real Durables Consumption
Index
Percent change
120
-
20-
10 -
■10 -j............................I............................ î ..................
1996
1997
'
1998
13
National EconomicTrends
Real Investment
Percent of GDP
Real Private Fixed Investment
Percent change from year ago
24 -
Real Nonresidential and Producers Durable Equipment Investment
Percent change from year ago
25 -
Real Residential Investment
Percent change from year ago
Digitized
14 for FRASER
tiationalEconomicTrends
Gross Saving Rates and Net Foreign Investment
Percent of GDP
Percent of GDP
Real Private Fixed investment
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders
Percent change at annual rate
15 - ....................................
Percent change from year ago, excluding aircraft
30-
-2 0
1995
1996
1993
1997
1 1994
1 1995
1 1996
Real Equipment Investment
Real Nonresidentiai Investment
Percent change at annual rate
25-
Percent change at annual rate
20-
1995
1996
1997
- 5 -|............................... ]....................
1995
1996
Real Residential Investment
Housing Starts
Percent change at annual rate
20 - ..........................................
Millions, annual rate
1.7 -
f
1997
f
1998
1997
1.3 -[ ■
1996
1997
1998
15
HationaìEconomicTrends
Govt Consumption and Investment
Government Receipts and Outlays
Billions of 1992 dollars
1400
Percent of GDP
35
1200
1000
800
600
400
Government Budgets
Billions of dollars
National Income Accounts
Unified Budget
Calendar Years
Fiscal Years
State and Local
Receipts
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
Expenditures
Federal
Federal
Surplus or
Deficit)-)
Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or
Deficit!-)
Receipts
Outlays
Surplus or
Deficit!-)
225.6
198.0
27.6
297.4
371.3
-7 3 .9
279.1
332.3
253.9
217.9
36.0
400.3
-57.2
298.1
371.8
-5 3 .2
-7 3 .7
281.9
237.1
44.8
343.1
389.6
435.9
-46.3
355.6
409.2
-53 .7
309.3
256.7
52.6
446.5
478.1
-3 1 .6
399.6
458.7
-5 9 .2
330.6
278.3
52.3
51 1.1
529.5
-1 8 .4
463.3
504.0
-4 0 .7
-7 3 .8
361.4
307.0
54.4
561.5
622.5
-6 1 .0
517.1
590.9
390.8
335.4
55.4
649.3
707.1
-57 .8
599.3
678.2
-7 9 .0
409.0
357.7
51.3
646.4
781.0
-1 3 4 .6
617.8
745.8
-1 2 8 .0
443.6
492.0
378.8
405.1
64.8
671.9
746.9
846.3
-1 7 4 .4
600.6
808.4
-2 0 7 .8
86.9
902.9
-1 5 6 .0
666.5
851.9
-1 8 5 .4
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
528.7
437.8
90.9
81 1.3
974.2
-1 6 2 .9
734.1
946.4
-2 1 2 .3
570.6
475.7
94.9
850.1
1027.6
51 1.1
83.8
937.4
1066.3
769.2
854.4
990.5
1004.1
-2 2 1 .2
594.9
-1 7 7 .5
-1 2 8 .9
631.4
545.5
85.9
997.2
585.9
95.1
1079.3
-1 2 1 .3
- 1 13.4
909.3
991.2
1064.5
1 143.7
-1 5 5 .2
681.0
1 1 18.5
1 192.7
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
728.9
648.8
80.1
1 129.8
1284.5
-1 5 4 .7
784.2
708.4
75.8
1 149.0
1345.0
-1 9 6 .0
1032.0
1055.0
1253.2
1324.4
-2 2 1 .2
-26 9 .4
844.3
894.4
758.0
807.0
86.3
87.4
1 198.5
1275.1
1479.4
1525.7
-2 8 0 .9
-25 0 .6
1091.3
1 154.4
1381.7
1409.4
-29 0 .4
-2 5 5 .0
949.2
852.3
96.9
1374.8
1561.4
-1 8 6 .6
1258.6
1461.7
-2 0 3 .1
1995
1996
1997
-1 4 9 .8
-1 5 2 .5
999.0
895.9
103.1
1463.2
1637.6
-1 7 4 .4
1351.8
1515.7
- 1 63.9
1043.4
1090.4
938.0
105.4
1587.6
1698.1
- 1 10.5
1453.1
1560.5
-1 0 7 .5
982.6
107.8
1723.4
1752.2
-2 8 .8
1579.3
1601.2
-2 1 .9
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
Federal16
Reserve Bank of St. Louis
NationaìEconomicTrends
Federal Debt
Federal Deficit
Percent of GDP
70
/U —...................
Percent of GDP
Æ
60
cn —... .................
ou
I
40 “ " j
111
Total
30 -
y
20 1 .... I ....I.... 1
1
Held by Public
74
76
78
80
82
84
Change In Federal Debt
Federal Deficit, Unified Basis
Percent of GDP
Billions of dollars, fiscal years
500
.................. « ...............
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
250 -
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
-250 T
74
98
I...... I.......Î
76 78 80
82
84
Federal Government Debt
Billions of dollars, end of month or fiscal year,
excluding agency-issued debt
1993
Public Debt
Held by
Agencies
and Trusts
4 4 1 1 .5
1 1 1 6 .7
Held by Public
3 2 9 4 .8
Held by Private Investors
Total
Foreign and
international
3 2 5 .7
2 9 8 3 .0
5 9 1 .3
1994
4 6 9 2 .8
1 2 1 3 .1
3 4 7 9 .7
3 5 5 .2
3 1 2 7 .8
6 5 5 .8
1995
4 9 7 4 .0
1 3 2 0 .8
3 6 5 3 .2
3 7 4 .1
3 2 7 9 .5
8 4 8 .4
1996
5 2 2 4 .8
1 4 4 7 .0
3 7 7 7 .8
3 9 0 .9
3 3 8 6 .2
1 0 3 0 .9
1997
5 4 1 3 .1
1 5 9 8 .5
3 8 1 4 .7
4 3 6 .5
3 3 8 8 .9
1 2 9 2 .4
3 2 3 9 .2
7 2 9 .2
1995
1996
1997
M arch
4 8 6 4 .1
1 2 5 4 .7
3 6 0 9 .5
3 6 9 .3
June
4 9 5 1 .4
1 3 1 6 .6
3 6 3 4 .8
3 8 9 .0
3 2 4 5 .0
7 8 4 .2
S e p te m b e r
4 9 7 4 .0
1 3 2 0 .8
3 6 5 3 .2
3 7 4 .1
3 2 7 9 .5
8 4 8 .4
D ecem ber
4 9 8 8 .7
1 3 0 4 .5
3 6 8 4 .2
3 9 1 .0
3 2 9 4 .9
'8 6 2 .2
M arch
51 1 7 .8
1 3 5 3 .8
3 7 6 4 .0
3 8 1 .0
3 3 8 2 .8
9 3 1 .5
June
5 1 6 1 .1
1 4 2 2 :4
3 7 3 8 .6
3 9 1 .0
3 3 4 7 .3
9 5 9 .8
S e p te m b e r
5 2 2 4 .8
14 4 7 .0
3 7 7 7 .8
3 9 0 .9
3 3 8 6 .2
D ecem ber
5 3 2 3 .2
1 4 9 7 .2
3 8 2 6 .0
4 1 0 .9
3 4 1 1 .2
M arch
5 3 8 0 .9
1 5 0 6 .8
3 8 7 4 .1
4 0 5 .6
3 4 5 1 .7
June
5 3 7 6 .2
1 5 7 1 .6
3 8 0 4 .6
4 2 6 .4
3 3 6 1 .7
S e p te m b e r
5 4 1 3 .1
1 5 9 8 .5
3 8 1 4 .7
4 3 6 .5
D ecem ber
5 5 0 2 .4
NA
NA
NA
3 3 8 8 .9
,
NA
'
1 0 3 0 .9
1 1 3 1 .8
1 2 1 5 .4
■■■*
1 2 4 6 .9
1 2 9 2 .4
NA
17
National EconomicTrends
Trade and Investment Income Balances
Billions of dollars
Exchange Rates
100 x (Deutsche mark/US$)
YenAJS$
- 450
Index, March 1973-100
160
- 375
140
- 300
120
- 225
100
80
Goods Import Shares, 1997
Goods Export Shares, 1997
All Other
36.65%
All Other
32.29%
Mexico
Mexico
Canada
22.33%
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
18
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Other OECD
13.84%
Other OECD
9.59%
Canada
19.16%
2J6%
Germany
3.61%
France
UK 2.36%
5.37%
UK
3.72%
Germany
4.91%
HationaiEconomicTrends
Trade Balance
Goods Trade
Billions of dollars
Percent change from year ago
20 - .........................................
IVVIVIIIIIVI
Goods and Services
III
-5
-10
-15
Goods.........................
-20
1997
1996
(
1998
“ St 1906
1997
1998
1997
1998
Current Account Balance
Percent change from year ago
20 - .........................................
Billions of dollars
0
-5
1995
1996
1997
1996
Real GDP Growth of MajorTrading Partners
Percent change at annual rate
Germany
United Kingdom
n
1995
1
1996
1997
Mexico
19
Nat ionaI Economic Trends
Output per Hour and Manufacturing Capacity Utilization
Percent change from year ago
15 -
10 -
Nonfarm Output/Hr
•S t
72
t...... r
I" T
I
I.......T f ..... I......f
i'
I...... I.......I.......I
1...... 1.......1.. ... I...... I...... I.......I...... I.......T.......I...... r 50
73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97
Nonfarm Compensation per Hour
Percent change from year ago
15 - ...........
.........................
- S i
72
T
73
T"
74
r........I
75
76
7
77
T
78
T
79
F ....I... f^ "" T .............I........ I
80
81
82
83 84
85
Ï........ I........ I....... T.......... I... ..............1........ 1........ 1........ 1........ T........ I
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
Output per Hour and Multifactor Productivity, Manufacturing
Percent change, annual data
7.5 -
Output/Hr
soï..ï
.T .ï.T ..r
50
52
54
56
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
20
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
58
60
t.........
62
ï..ï.. r..t*.I
.... I..I..r.T ~ .ï..ï..ï.. 1— .r
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
National EconomicTrends
Nonfarm Output per Hour
Manufacturing Output per Hour
Percent change at annual rate
5 - ...........................................
Percent change at annual rate
10 - .................................................
-2
-5
1995
1996
1997
1995
1996
1997
Selected Component Shares of National Income
Percent
Percent
Corporate Profits after Tax (with IVA and CCAdj)
Percent change from year ago
80 > mm
Noilfinancial
4020
All
-2 0
\
/
—
40 “
72
I...... I....................... \...... f.......I.......r ......I...... I......I.......I...... I...... I ......I....... I...... r ..1.......î.......I.......I
I
I
1....... 1....
73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97
21
tiationalEconomicTrends
Real GDP
Nominal GDF
Percent chanae
Billions
Annual Year
ago
rate
of $
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1994 1
2
3
4
1995 1
2
3
4
1996 1
2
3
4
1997 1
2
3
4
1994 1
2
3
4
Billions
of 1992 $
Percent chanae
Annual Year
rate
ago
Change in
Business Inventories
Billions of 1992 $
Last qtr Year/Year ago
6558.1
6947.0
5.0
6389.563
2.3
6368.864
2.1
7.001
5.9
6610.741
3.5
6551.247
2.9
22.102
7 265.4
4.6
6742.062
2.0
6712.672
2.5
60.552
7 636.0
5.1
6928.396
2.8
6900.980
2.8
27.341
8079.9
5.8
7188.820
3.8
7 118.324
3.1
25.038
6794.3
5.5
5.4
6524.505
3.0
3.1
6473.029
1.2
2.8
53.061
691 1.4
7.1
6.2
6600.313
4.7
3.8
6526.671
3.4
2.9
75.896
16.644
6986.5
4.4
6.3
6629.474
1.8
3.7
6580.376
3.3
3.2
49.662
15.283
7095.7
6.4
5.8
6688.609
3.6
3.3
6624.848
2.7
2.7
63.590
24.179
7168.9
4.2
5.5
6703.721
0.9
2.7
6654.289
1.8
2.8
48.479
53.061
7209.5
2.3
4.3
6708.841
0.3
1.6
6685.289
1.9
2.4
21.638
75.896
7301.3
5.2
4.5
6759.234
3.0
2.0
6739.306
3.3
2.4
17.023
49.662
7381.9
4.5
4.0
6796.513
2.2
1.6
6771.927
2.0
2.2
22.223
63.590
32.301
7467.5
4.7
4.2
6826.362
1.8
1.8
6814.966
2.6
2.4
8.039
48.479
7607.7
7.7
5.5
6926.023
6.0
3.2
6902.290
5.2
3.2
21.288
21.638
7676.0
3.6
5.1
6943.820
1.0
2.7
6905.034
0.2
2.5
37.903
17.023
7792.9
6.2
5.6
7017.379
4.3
3.2
6981.692
4.5
3.1
32.922
22.223
7933.6
7.4
6.2
7101.617
4.9
4.0
7034.087
3.0
3.2
63.657
8.039
8034.3
5.2
5.6
7159.627
3.3
3.4
7077.749
2.5
2.5
77.603
21.288
8124.3
4.6
5.8
7214.017
3.1
3.9
7160.333
4.7
3.7
47.539
37.903
8227.4
5.2
5.6
7280.020
3.7
3.7
7201.126
2.3
3.1
74.049
32.922
Consumption
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
Billions
of 1992 $
Final Sales
Percent chanae
Annual
Year
rate
ago
Durables Consumption
Billions
of 1992 $
Percent chanae
Annual Year
rate
ago
Billions
of 1992 $
4343.563
2.9
523.841
4485.981
3.3
561.189
4595.273
2.4
583.598
4714.061
2.6
4867.461
3.3
Private Fi)ted Investment
Nonreside ntiai Investment
Year
ago
Billions
of 1992 $
Percent chanae
Annual Year
rate
ago
7.2
842.772
7.6
600.167
7.6
7.1
915.536
8.6
648.361
8.0
4.0
962.1 19
5.1
706.513
9.0
611.107
4.7
1041.699
8.3
771.683
9.2
645.548
5.6
1 123.564
7.9
848.268
9.9
9.0
626.191
0.4
8.4
7.8
Percent chanae
Annual
rate
Billions
of 1992 $
Percent chanae
Annual Year
rate
ago
4439.436
3.8
3.6
550.661
6.4
9.2
887.795
3.2
4472.2 24
3.0
3.5
555.796
3.8
7.0
913.178
11.9
9.9
641.209
9.9
4498.218
2.3
3.0
561.741
4.3
6.0
922.712
4.2
9.3
653.153
7.7
8.5
4534.129
3.2
3.1
576.563
1 1.0
6.3
938.467
7.0
6.6
672.890
12.6
7.6
1995 1
2
3
4
4551.303
1.5
2.5
572.230
- 3 .0
3.9
955.820
7.6
7.7
6 95.674
14.2
1 1.1
4583.458
2.9
2.5
577.706
3.9
3.9
954.034
- 0 .7
4.5
705.353
5.7
10.0
4612.912
2.6
2.5
590.755
9.3
5.2
962.315
3.5
4.3
708.231
1.6
8.4
4633.463
1.8
2.2
593.701
2.0
3.0
976.315
5.9
4.0
716.800
4.9
6.5
1996 1
2
3
4
4669.373
3.1
2.6
600.662
4.8
5.0
1001.533
10.7
4.8
736.939
11.7
5.9
4712.204
3.7
2.8
614.771
9.7
6.4
1035.683
14.4
8.6
759.734
13.0
7.7
4718.196
0.5
2.3
611.864
- 1 .9
3.6
1060.886
10.1
10.2
789.290
16.5
1 1.4
4756.427
3.3
2.7
617.131
3.5
3.9
1068.696
3.0
9.5
800.771
5.9
1 1.7
1997 1
2
3
4
4818.079
5.3
3.2
637.766
14.1
6.2
1079.006
3.9
7.7
808.932
4.1
9.8
4829.430
0.9
2.5
628.992
- 5 .4
2.3
1111.393
12.6
7.3
836.993
14.6
10.2
4896.187
5.6
3.8
656.140
18.4
7.2
1149.303
14.4
8.3
874.482
19.2
10.8
4926.148
2.5
3.6
659.296
1.9
6.8
1154.552
1.8
8.0
872.663
-0 .8
9.0
22
National EconomicTrends
GDP Chain Price Index
Index
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1994
1995
1996
1997
Employment Cost Index
Percent chanae
Annual
Year
rate
ago
Index
ECI: Wages
Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago
Index
ECI: Benefits
Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago
Index
Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago
102.643
2.6
118.4
3.6
115.2
2.9
127.0
5.4
105.088
2.4
122.3
3.3
118.5
2.9
132.0
4.0
107.763
2.5
125.6
2.8
121.9
2.9
135.0
2.2
1 10.224
2.3
129.2
2.8
125.9
3.3
137.4
1.8
1 12.447
2.0
133.2
3.1
130.4
3.6
140.2
2.1
1
104.156
2.5
2.3
120.8
3.0
3.3
117.1
2.1
2.8
130.3
4.4
4.3
2
3
4
104.736
2.2
2.3
121.8
3.4
3.3
118.1
3.5
3.1
131.5
3.7
4.0
105.391
2.5
2.5
122.8
3.3
3.3
119.0
3.1
2.9
132.8
4.0
4.0
106.071
2.6
2.5
123.6
2.6
3.1
119.8
2.7
2.8
133.5
2.1
3.6
1
106.933
3.3
2.7
124.4
2.6
3.0
120.6
2.7
3.0
133.9
1.2
2.8
2
3
4
107.485
2.1
2.6
125.2
2.6
2.8
121.5
3.0
2.9
134.6
2.1
2.4
108.031
2.0
2.5
126.0
2.6
2.6
122.4
3.0
2.9
135.3
2.1
1.9
108.603
2.1
2.4
126.9
2.9
2.7
123.2
2.6
2.8
136.0
2.1
1.9
1
109.349
2.8
2.3
127.7
2.5
2.7
124.4
4.0
3.2
136.0
0.0
1.6
2
3
4
109.857
1.9
2.2
128.8
3.5
2.9
125.5
3.6
3.3
137.0
3.0
1.8
1 10.588
2.7
2.4
129.7
2.8
2.9
' 126.4
2.9
3.3
137.7
2.1
1.8
1 1 1.103
1.9
2.3
130.6
2.8
2.9
127.4
3.2
3.4
138.7
2.9
2.0
1
1 1 1.775
2.4
2.2
131.4
2.5
2.9
128.5
3.5
3.3
138.7
0.0
2.0
2
3
4
1 12.272
1.8
2.2
132.5
3.4
2.9
129.7
3.8
3.3
139.7
2.9
2.0
1 12.673
1.4
1.9
133.6
3.4
3.0
130.9
3.8
3.6
140.4
2.0
2.0
1 13.068
1.4
1.8
135.2
4.9
3.5
132.5
5.0
4.0
141.9
4.3
2.3
Exports
Billions
of 1992 $
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1994 1
2
3
4
1995 1
2
3
4
1996 1
2
3
4
1997 1
2
3
4
Imports
Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago
Billions
of 1992 $
Nonfarm Output per Hour
Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago
Index
Nonfarm Compensation/Hr
Percent chanae
Annual
Year
rate
ago
Index
Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago
658.183
2.9
728.409
8.9
100.1
0.1
102.3
2.3
712.399
8.2
817.026
12.2
100.5
0.4
104.1
1.8
791.213
1 1.1
890.057
8.9
100.7
0.2
106.7
2.5
857.022
8.3
971.469
9.1
102.6
1.9
1 10.8
3.8
962.710
12.3
1109.233
14.2
104.3
1.7
1 15.0
3.8
4.4
773.638
7.6
10.2
100.6
-1 .2
0.5
103.8
3.1
2.2
11.8
1.1
1.8
676.029
-1 .8
704.131
17.7
6.7
808.022
19.0
100.7
0.4
103.9
0.4
722.105
10.6
1 1.7
833.229
13.1
14.2
100.4
-1 .2
0.4
104.2
1.2
1.7
747.330
14.7
10.0
853.197
9.9
12.3
100.7
1.2
-0 .2
104.9
2.7
1.8
760.368
7.2
12.5
873.861
10.0
13.0
100.3
-1 .6
-0 .3
105.5
2.3
1.6
777.447
9.3
10.4
890.284
7.7
10.2
100.5
0.8
-0 .2
106.3
3.1
2.3
802.435
13.5
11.1
895.368
2.3
7.5
100.8
1.2
0.4
107.1
3.0
2.8
824.604
1 1.5
10.3
900.720
2.4
5.6
101.4
2.4
0.7
108.1
3.8
3.1
3.4
828.178
1.7
8.9
928.963
13.1
6.3
102.1
9.0
960.043
14.1
7.8
102.8
1.8
2.3
3.8
9.6
2.8
2.8
109.1
847.444
1 10.5
5.2
4.0
851.382
1.9
6.1
990.240
13.2
10.6
102.6
-0 .8
1.8
1 1 1.4
3.3
4.0
901.071
25.5
9.3
1006.623
6.8
11.8
103.1
2.0
1.7
1 12.3
3.3
3.9
922.652
9.9
1 1.4
1048.941
17.9
12.9
103.4
1.2
1.3
1 13.5
4.3
4.0
962.500
18.4
13.6
1099.106
20.5
14.5
104.0
2.3
1.2
1 14.4
3.2
3.5
973.025
4.4
14.3
1 137.097
14.6
14.8
104.9
3.5
2.2
1 15.5
3.9
3.7
992.661
8.3
10.2
1 151.787
5.3
14.4
105.3
1.5
2.1
1 17.0
5.3
4.2
23
National EconomicTrends
Household Survey Employment
Thousands Change
Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Percent chanae
Year
Annual
ago
rate
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
120259
123069
124903
126708
129557
1771
2810
1834
1805
2849
1
2
3
4
124897
124666
124843
125207
449
-2 3 2
177
365
1.5
-0 .7
0.6
1996
1
2
3
4
125656
126323
127067
127787
1997
1
2
3
4
Nonfarm Aggregate Hours
Percent chanae
Annual Year
Thousands Change
rate
ago
Index
Percent chanae
Monthly Annual
Year
rate
rate
ago
1.9
3.1
2.7
2.0
2.3
124.5
129.8
133.4
136.4
140.6
2.9
4.2
2.8
2.2
3.1
1.5
2.3
1.5
1.4
2.2
110707
114145
1 17195
119517
122263
2116
3438
3051
2322
2746
1.2
2.4
1.7
1.3
0.6
116482
116937
117414
117949
873
455
478
534
3.1
1.6
1.6
1.8
3.4
2.9
2.4
2.0
133.0
132.9
133.6
134.2
-0.1
0.6
0.4
3.2
-0 .4
2.3
1.7
4.3
2.7
2.5
1.7
449
667
744
720
1.4
2.1
2.4
2.3
0.6
1.3
1.8
2.1
118471
119248
1 19898
120452
522
778
649
555
1.8
2.7
2.2
1.9
1.7
2.0
2.1
2.1
134.3
136.1
137.0
138.1
0.1
1.3
0.7
0.8
0.4
5.5
2.7
3.1
1.0
2.5
2.5
2.9
128697
129387
129723
130421
910
690
336
698
2.9
2.2
1.0
2.2
2.4
2.4
2.1
2.1
121138
121854
122575
123487
686
715
721
912
2.3
2.4
2.4
3.0
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.5
139.5
140.1
140.6
142.2
1.0
0.4
0.4
1.1
4.1
1.7
1.6
4.5
3.8
2.9
2.6
3.0
1996 Feb
Mar
125771
125951
525
180
5.1
1.7
0.6
0.8
118550
118804
492
254
5.1
2.6
1.7
1.8
135.1
135.4
2.0
0.2
26.3
2.7
1.9
2.0
Apr
May
Jun
126057
126321
126591
106
264
270
1.0
2.5
2.6
0.9
1.5
1.7
118966
119263
119516
162
297
253
1.6
3.0
2.6
1.8
2.1
2.1
135.1
135.7
137.6
-0 .2
0.4
1.4
-2 .6
5.5
18.2
1.0
2.9
3.5
Jul
Aug
Sep
126867
126995
127338
276
128
343
2.6
1.2
3.3
1.7
1.8
1.9
119691
119983
120019
175
292
36
1.8
3.0
0.4
2.2
2.1
2.0
136.1
137.1
137.9
-1.1
0.7
-1 2 .3
9.2
1.9
2.8
0.6
7.2
3.0
Oct
Nov
Dec
127715
127746
127899
377
31
153
3.6
0.3
1.4
1.9
2.0
2.2
120248
120450
120659
229
202
209
2.3
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
137.2
137.9
139.1
-0 .5
0.5
0.9
-5 .9
6.3
1 1.0
2.1
2.7
3.9
1997 Jan
Feb
Mar
128541
642
-2 6
520
6.2
-0 .2
5.0
2.6
2.2
2.4
120909
121162
121344
250
253
182
2.5
2.5
1.8
2.4
2.2
2.1
138.2
140.0
140.2
-0 .6
128515
129035
1.3
0.1
-7 .5
16.8
1.7
4.3
3.6
3.5
Apr
May
Jun
129275
129494
129392
240
219
-1 0 2
2.3
2.1
-0 .9
2.6
2.5
2.2
121671
121834
122056
327
163
222
3.3
1.6
139.6
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.1
140.0
140.6
-0 .4
0.3
0.4
-5 .0
3.5
5.3
3.3
3.2
2.2
Jul
Aug
Sep
129661
129747
2.5
0.8
129761
269
86
14
2.2
2.2
1.9
122440
122492
122792
384
52
300
3.8
0.5
3.0
2.3
2.1
2.3
140.2
140.8
140.9
-0 .3
0.4
0.1
-3 .4
5.3
0.9
3.0
2.7
2.2
Oct
Nov
Dec
129910
130575
130777
149
665
202
6.3
1.9
1.7
2.2
2.3
123083
123512
123866
291
429
354
2.9
4.3
2.4
2.5
141.2
142.9
3.5
2.7
142.5
0.2
1.2
-0 .3
2.6
15.4
-3 .3
2.9
3.6
2.4
1998 Jan
Feb
131083
131163
306
80
2.8
0.7
2.0
2.1
124241
124551
375
310
3.7
3.0
2.8
2.8
143.6
144.5
0.8
0.6
9.7
7.8
3.9
3.2
1995
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
24
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
0.1
1.4
0.8
National EconomicTrends
Retail Sales
Industrial Production
Percent chanoe
Monthly/ Annual
Year
quarterly rate
ago
Unempi.
Rate
Billions
of dollars
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
6.9
6.1
5.6
5.4
5.0
2071.178
2224.913
2326.536
2440.312
2548.523
1
2
3
4
5.5
5.6
5.7
5.6
573.137
578.680
585.146
589.573
0.2
1.0
1.1
0.8
0.8
3.9
4.5
3.1
1996
1
2
3
4
5.6
5.4
5.3
5.3
600.484
609.371
61 1.126
619.331
1.9
1.5
0.3
1.3
1997
1
2
3
4
5.3
4.9
4.9
4.7
634.304
630.244
641.726
642.249
1996 Feb
Mar
5.5
5.5
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Index
Percent chanae
Year
Monthly/ Annual
quarterly rate
ago
Treasury
Yields
3 -m o
10-yr
3.6
5.4
4.9
3.5
5.0
3.00
4.25
5.49
5.01
5.06
5.86
7.08
6.58
6.44
6.35
5.74
5.60
5.37
6.5
7.4
4.6
4.9
4.4
103.554
109.171
114.543
118.499
124.421
5.6
5.2
4.5
3.1
1 13.488
1 13.949
1 15.216
1 15.519
1.4
0.4
1.1
0.3
5.9
1.6
4.5
1.1
6.5
5.1
4.9
3.3
5.26
7.48
6.62
6.32
5.89
7.6
6.1
1.2
5.5
4.8
5.3
4.4
5.0
1 16.105
1 18.228
119.270
120.393
0.5
1.8
0.9
0.9
2.0
7.5
3.6
3.8
2.3
3.8
3.5
4.2
4.93
5.02
5.10
4.98
5.91
6.72
6.78
6.34
2.4
-0 .6
1.8
0.1
10.0
-2 .5
7.5
0.3
5.6
3.4
5.0
3.7
121.940
123.312
125.119
127.314
1.3
1.1
1.5
1.8
5.2
4.6
6.0
7.2
5.0
4.3
4.9
5.7
5.06
5.05
5.05
5.09
6.56
6.70
6.24
5.90
201.085
201.685
1.7
0.3
22.5
3.6
6.1
5.6
116.725
1 16.288
1.2
-0 .4
15.9
-4 .4
2.9
2.4
4.83
4.96
5.81
6.27
5.5
5.5
5.3
202.496
204.177
4.9
10.4
-8 .4
6.0
5.8
4.2
1 17.530
118.257
118.897
1.1
0.6
13.6
7.7
202.698
0.4
0.8
-0 .7
0.5
6.7
3.5
3.8
4.0
4.95
5.02
5.09
6.51
6.74
6.91
5.5
203.090
203.087
204.949
0.2
-0 .0
0.9
2.3
-0 .0
1 1.6
4.5
3.7
5.1
1 18.943
1 19.253
1 19.613
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.5
3.2
3.7
4.1
5.2
5.2
3.3
3.2
5.15
5.05
5.09
6.87
6.64
6.83
Oct
Nov
Dec
5.3
5.4
5.3
206.693
205.966
206.672
0.9
-0 .4
0.3
10.7
-4.1
4.2
6.1
4.7
4.4
1 19.650
120.587
120.943
0.0
0.8
0.3
0.4
9.8
3.6
3.7
4.99
5.03
4.91
6.53
6.20
6.30
1997 Jan
Feb
Mar
5.3
5.3
5.2
209.307
1.3
5.8
5.3
121.288
122.064
122.468
0.3
0.6
0.3
3.5
1.6
-0.1
16.4
21.0
-1 .8
5.9
212.655
212.342
5.2
4.6
5.3
5.03
5.01
5.14
6.58
6.42
6.69
Apr
May
Jun
5.0
4.8
5.0
209.934
209.370
-12.8
-3 .2
9.4
3.7
2.5
4.1
123.073
123.316
123.546
0.5
0.2
0.2
6.1
2.4
2.3
4.7
4.3
210.940
-1.1
-0 .3
0.7
3.9
5.16
5.05
4.93
6.89
6.71
6.49
Jul
Aug
Sep
4.9
4.9
4.9
213.549
214.372
213.805
1.2
0.4
-0 .3
15.9
4.7
-3.1
5.1
5.6
124.527
125.246
4.3
125.585
0.8
0.6
0.3
10.0
7.2
3.3
4.7
5.0
5.0
5.05
5.14
4.95
6.22
6.30
6.21
Oct
Nov
Dec
4.8
4.6
4.7
213.517
213.834
214.898
-0.1
0.1
0.5
-1 .6
1.8
6.1
3.3
3.8
4.0
126.550
127.528
127.864
0.8
0.8
0.3
9.6
9.7
3.2
5.8
5.8
5.7
4.97
5.14
5.16
6.03
5.87
5.81
1998 Jan
Feb
4.7
4.6
216.955
218.051
1.0
0.5
12.1
6.2
3.7
2.5
128.047
128.103
0.1
0.0
1.7
0.5
5.6
4.9
5.04
5.09
5.54
5.57
1995
8.0
4.0
4.3
4.7
25
National Economic Trends
riuuuwi rnceiim
WJIfòUIIWI rniæ UNGA
less Food and Energy
Consumer Price Index
Index
Percent chanae
Year
Monthly/ Annual
ago
quarterly rate
Year
to date
Index
Finished Goods
Percent chanae
Year
Monthly/ Annual
ago
quarterly rate
Year
to date
Index
Percent chanae
Monthly/ Annual
Year
quarterly rate
ago
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
144.6
148.3
152.5
157.0
160.6
1
2
3
4
150.9
152.2
153.0
153.9
0.6
0.8
0.5
0.6
2.6
3.4
2.1
2.5
2.8
3.0
2.6
2.6
2.6
3.0
2.7
2.6
159.6
160.9
162.0
163.2
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
3.2
3.4
2.8
2.9
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.1
3.1
127.1
127.9
128.0
128.7
0.9
0.6
0.1
0.6
3.6
2.5
0.2
2.4
2.1
1.6
2.2
1996
1
2
3
4
155.1
156.5
157.5
158.8
0.8
0.9
0.6
0.8
3.2
3.7
2.4
3.3
2.8
2.9
2.9
3.2
3.2
3.5
3.1
3.2
164.2
165.2
166.3
167.4
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.6
2.6
2.5
2.7
2.6
2.9
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.6
2.6
129.9
131.1
131.5
132.6
0.9
0.9
0.3
0.8
3.8
3.7
1.2
3.3
2.2
2.5
2.8
3.0
1997
1
2
3
4
159.6
160.2
160.9
161.8
0.5
0.3
0.5
0.5
2.2
1.3
1.9
2.1
2.9
2.3
2.2
1.9
2.2
1.8
1.8
1.9
168.3
169.4
170.2
171.1
0.5
0.7
0.4
0.5
2.2
2.7
1.7
2.1
2.5
2.5
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.4
2.2
2.2
132.7
131.7
131.4
131.6
0.1
-0 .8
-0 .2
0.2
0.2
-3 .0
-0 .8
0.7
2.1
0.4
-0.1
-0 .7
1996 Feb
Mar
155.0
155.6
0.2
0.4
2.4
4.7
2.7
2.9
3.6
4.0
164.2
164.6
0.2
0.2
2.2
3.0
2.9
2.9
3.0
3.0
129.7
130.4
0.0
0.5
0.0
6.7
2.0
2.4
Apr
May
Jun
156.2
156.6
156.8
0.4
0.3
0.1
4.7
2.9
2.9
2.8
4.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.7
2.7
130.9
0.4
4.7
3.9
3.5
164.9
165.2
165.6
2.2
3.1
1.5
131.1
131.4
0.2
0.2
1.8
2.8
2.4
2.4
2.7
Jul
Aug
Sep
157.2
157.4
157.8
0.3
0.1
0.3
3.1
1.5
3.1
2.9
2.9
3.0
3.5
3.2
3.2
166.0
166.3
166.7
0.2
0.2
0.2
2.2
2.9
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.7
131.3
131.5
131.8
-0.1
0.2
0.2
-0 .9
1.8
2.8
2.6
2.9
2.9
Oct
Nov
Dec
158.3
158.8
159.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
3.9
3.9
3.1
3.0
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
167.1
167.4
167.7
0.2
0.2
0.2
2.9
2.2
2.2
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.6
132.3
132.5
133.0
0.4
0.2
0.4
4.6
1.8
4.6
3.1
3.0
2.9
1997 Jan
Feb
Mar
159.4
159.7
159.8
0.1
0.2
0.1
1.5
2.3
0.8
3.0
3.0
2.7
1.5
1.9
1.5
168.0
168.3
168.6
0.2
0.2
0.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.2
2.2
2.2
133.0
132.6
132.4
0.0
-0 .3
-0 .2
0.0
-3 .5
-1 .8
2.5
2.2
1.5
Apr
May
Jun
160.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
1.5
0.8
2.3
2.4
2.2
2.3
1.5
1.4
1.5
169.2
169.4
169.7
0.4
0.1
0.2
4.4
1.4
2.1
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.7
2.5
2.4
131.9
131.7
131.4
-0 .4
-0 .2
-0 .2
-4 .4
-1 .8
-2 .7
0.8
0.5
0.0
Jul
Aug
Sep
160.6
0.1
0.2
0.2
1.5
2.3
3.0
2.2
2.2
1.5
160.9
161.3
1.6
1.8
170.0
170.1
170.4
0.2
0.1
0.2
2.1
0.7
2.1
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.4
2.2
2.2
131.1
131.3
131.8
-0 .2
0.2
0.4
-2 .7
1.8
4.7
-0 .2
-0 .2
0.0
Oct
Nov
Dec
161.6
161.8
161.9
0.2
0.1
0.1
2.3
1.5
0.7
2.1
1.9
170.8
171.0
171.4
0.2
0.1
0.2
2.9
1.4
2.2
131.8
131.7
131.4
0.0
-0.1
-0 .2
0.0
-0 .9
-2 .7
-0 .4
-0 .6
2.8
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.1
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.7
1998 Jan
Feb
161.9
162.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.7
1.6
1.4
0.0
0.4
171.7
172.2
0.2
0.3
2.1
3.6
2.2
2.3
2.1
2.8
130.5
130.4
-0 .7
-0.1
-7 .9
-0 .9
-1 .9
-1 .7
1995
160.1
160.4
26
3.0
2.6
2.8
2.9
2.3
2.2
152.4
156.7
161.4
165.8
169.7
3.3
2.8
3.0
2.7
2.4
2.2
2.9
2.9
124.7
125.5
127.9
131.3
131.8
1.2
0.6
1.9
2.6
0.4
1.7
-1 .2
National EconomicTrends
Notes
Pages 4, 5: Final sales is gross domestic product (GDP) minus change
in business inventories. Advance, preliminary, and final GDP
growth rates are released during the first, second, and third months of
the following quarter. Changes result from incorporation of more com
plete information. The Purchasing Managers’ Index is a weighted
average o f diffusion indexes for new orders, production, supplier deliv
eries, inventories, and employment. The National Association of Pur
chasing Management (NAPM) surveys over 300 firms in 20 manufac
turing industries, weighting responses by industry share of GDP. Ag
gregate and average weekly hours are paid hours of production and
nonsupervisory employees. The inventory-sales ratio uses nominal
(current-dollar) inventory and sales data.
Page 6: The contribution of a component X, to the overall GDP
growth rate in quarter t is 100 x [(1 + (X, - X,.j)/G D P,.i)4 - 1], The sign
is changed for imports. This calculation forces components to add up
to the GDP growth rate before compounding and does not exactly
match Survey o f C urrent B usiness, Table 8.2. The residual line is
calculated using the finest level o f detail in the table.
Page 7: Ten-year Treasury yields are adjusted to constant maturity.
Three-month yields are secondary market averages, but all rates used in
the yield curves are adjusted to constant maturity. The total return on
the Standard and Poor’s 500 is dividends as a percent of the value of
the index plus the percent change in the index.
Pages 8,9: Oil prices are monthly averages of daily spot prices for
West Texas intermediate crude (W all Street Journal). Consumer price
index is for all urban consumers. The consumption chain price index
is the index associated with the personal consumption expenditures
component o f GDP. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) covers pri
vate nonfarm employers. ECI compensation refers to a fixed sample
o f jobs, while compensation per hour covers all workers in the non
farm business sector in a given quarter. In both cases, compensation is
wages and salaries plus benefits.
P ages 10,11: Nonfarm payroll employment is counted in a survey of
about 390,000 establishments (Current Employment Survey). It ex
cludes self-employed individuals and workers in private households,
but double-counts individuals with more than one job. The household
survey (Current Population Survey) o f about 50,000 households pro
vides estimates o f civilian employment, unemployment rate, labor force
participation rate, and employment-population ratio. Population is
civilian, noninstitutional, 16 years and over. New population controls
introduced in January 1997 affect levels and growth rates of household
survey employment, labor force and population. The unemployment
rate and other ratios are minimally affected. 90 percent confidence
intervals for the unemployment rate (± 0.2 percentage points) and
change in household survey employment (± 376,000) measure uncer
tainty due to sample size. The household survey was changed in Janu
ary 1994, so care should be exercised in making short-term compari
sons around this date, particularly with the duration data shown on
page 10. Other changes in the survey are detailed in Bureau of Labor
Statistics, E m ploym ent and Earnings, Appendix A.
Pages 12, 13: Debt service is an estimate of scheduled interest and
principal payments on outstanding debt. The Michigan consumer
sentiment index shows changes in a summary measure of consumers’
answers to five questions about their current and expected financial
situation, expectations about future economic conditions, and attitudes
about making large purchases. The survey is based on a representative
sample o f U.S. households.
P ages 14, 15: Overall gross saving includes government saving,
which is the sum o f the government surplus and capital consumption
(see notes for pages 16 and 17). Net foreign investment (NFI) is U.S.
investment abroad minus foreign investment in the U.S. Aside from a
statistical discrepancy, NFI also equals the difference between gross
domestic investment and saving.
Pages 16, 17: Government consumption and investment is current
expenditures on goods and services, including capital consumption
(depreciation) and gross investment, as reported in the National Income
and Product Accounts (NIPA). The unified federal budget deficit
differs from NIPA basis in four main ways: (1) NIPA excludes trans
actions involving existing assets; (2) NIPA outlays exclude government
investment and include consumption o f government capital, while
unified budget outlays do the reverse; (3) NIPA accounts exclude
Puerto Rico and U.S. territories; and (4) various timing issues are
handled differently. Outlays and receipts are from the NIP As, except
as noted. Since 1977, the federal fiscal year starts on October 1.
Excluded agency debt was 0.6 percent o f federal debt at the end of
fiscal 1997. Federal debt held by the public includes holdings o f the
Federal Reserve System and excludes holdings o f the social security
and other federal trust funds. Federal grants in aid to state and local
governments appear in both state and local receipts and federal outlays.
Pages 18, 19: The trade balance (shown on a balance o f payments
basis) is the difference between exports and imports o f goods (mer
chandise) and services. It is nearly identical in concept to the net ex
ports component o f GDP, but differs slightly in accounting details.
The investment income balance equals incom e received from U.S.owned assets in other countries minus incom e paid on foreign-owned
assets in the U.S. The investment incom e balance is nearly identical in
concept to the difference between gross national product and gross
domestic product, but differs in accounting details. The current ac
count balance is the trade balance plus the balance on investment
income plus net unilateral transfers to the U.S. from other countries.
Pages 20, 21: Output per hour (Y/H), unit labor cost (C/Y), and
compensation per hour (C/H) are indexes which approximately obey
the following relationship; %(Y/H) + %(C/Y) = %(C/H) with %()
meaning percent changes. Unit labor cost is shown on page 9. Real
compensation per hour uses the CPI to adjust for the effects o f infla
tion. Multifactor productivity estimates changes in output that do not
correspond to changes in quantities o f labor, capital, or intermediate
inputs. Inventory valuation adjustments (IVA) remove the effect of
changes in the value o f existing inventories from corporate profits and
proprietors’ income. (This change in value does not correspond to
current production and therefore is not part o f GDP). Capital con
sumption adjustments (CCAdj) increase profits and proprietors’
income by the difference between estimates o f economic depreciation
and depreciation allowed by the tax code. Components of national
income not shown are rental incom e of persons and net interest.
Sources
Bureau o f Economic A nalysis (BEA), U.S. Dept, o f Comm erce
National income and product accounts, international trade and in
vestment data (except by country), auto and light truck sales
Census Bureau, U.S. Dept, o f C om m erce
Inventory-sales ratios, retail sales, capital goods orders, housing
starts, exports and imports by country
Bureau o f Labor S tatistics (BLS), U.S. Dept, o f Labor
All employment-related data, employment cost index, consumer and
producer price indexes, unit labor cost, output per hour, compensa
tion per hour, total factor productivity
United States D epartm ent o f Treasury
Unified budget receipts, outlays, deficit, debt
Federal Reserve B oard
Index o f industrial production, treasury yields, exchange rates, capac
ity utilization, consumer debt service
The Survey R esearch Center, The U niversity o f M ichigan
Consumer sentiment index
The Conference B oard
Help-wanted advertising index
Organization fo r E conom ic C ooperation and D evelopm ent (OECD)
GDP for major trading partners (not available on FRED)
27
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
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St. Louis, Missouri 63166
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