Full text of National Economic Trends : April 1995

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APRIL 1995

National
Economic
Trends
Inventory Changes and
the Business Cycle

increases in inventory due to lower than anticipated
holiday sales. We would then expect some inventory
decumulation in the retail sector during the first quarter
o f 1995.
Fundamental changes in inventory management
methods may also have permanently changed the rela­
tionship between inventory and recessions. The accom­
panying chart shows the inventory-to-sales ratio (number
of months’ sales in stock) o f the manufacturing, whole­
sale and retail trade sectors for the last 20 years, with
recessions shaded. The manufacturing sector has adopted
more efficient inventory management techniques and
contributed heavily to the decline in the aggregate
inventory-to-sales ratio. Innovations like just-in-time
delivery allow production to respond faster to changes
in demand, minimizing unplanned inventory accumu­
lation. Some analysts believe this will reduce the severity
o f business cycles over the long run.
— Donald S. Allen

The robust growth o f Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
in 1994 was due in large part to a buildup o f business
inventory. The 1994 increase in business inventory was
$47.8 billion in 1987 dollars, contributing 1 percentage
point o f the 4.1 percent increase in GDP, and following
a $15.3 billion increase in 1993. Most post-war reces­
sions have been preceded by a rise in inventory levels.
Does the 1994 buildup o f inventory portend another
downturn? Not necessarily.
The impact o f inventory increases on the business
cycle depends on whether they are planned or unplanned.
Unplanned increases in inventory are undesirable and
are usually followed by scaled-back production or
purchases until inventory levels return to normal. Such
decreases in production can trigger layoffs and sluggish
demand throughout the economy. Planned
increases in inventory, on the other hand,
contribute positively to economic expan­
sions and do not lead to corrections.
Inventory-to-Sales
Inventory increases before recessions
Percent
usually coincide with increases in the
business inventory-to-sales ratio, but the
ratio is at its lowest level in 20 years. Low
inventory-to-sales ratios in 1994 suggest
that firms have been economizing by
maintaining a minimum level of inventory.
Last year’s unexpectedly large increase
in consumer spending caught some firms
under-stocked. For example, automakers
like Ford and GM experienced shortages
of popular models. Such stock-outs would
result in a planned attempt to raise inven­
tory levels. The retail sector, however,
may have experienced some unplanned

Manufacturing and Trade
Ratios

Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System.

National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research and Public Information Division. Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing
Research and Public Information, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or by calling 314-444-8809.
Information in this publication is also included in the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board. You can access FRED with a personal
computer and a modem at 314-621-1824.




Table o f Contents
Page
1
2
3-4
5-6
7-8
9
10
11
12-13
14
15
16-17
18-21
22
23
24
25-27

Cover Page
Table o f Contents
Nominal and Real Gross Domestic Product (G D P)
Price Deflators
Consumer and Producer Prices
Employment Costs
Productivity and Unit Labor Cost
Industrial Production
Employment and Unemployment
Real Personal Income
Retail Sales
Inventories and Final Sales
Components o f Real GDP
U.S. International Transactions
Gross Saving and Investment
Corporate Profits and Cash Flow
Government Budget Data

How to Use the Triangles in this Publication
This publication makes extensive use o f “triangles” to present compound annual rates o f change over various peri­
ods. Consider the simple, abbreviated triangle below for quarterly Real Gross Domestic Product from the first quar­
ter o f 1990 to the fourth quarter o f 1991. From this triangle, the reader can obtain rates o f change from any date on
the top row to any date along the left column; actual dollar figures for the periods in the left-most column are shown
in the right-most column. In our example, the compound annual rate o f growth from n/1990 to ILL/1991 can be
found at the intersection o f the n/1990 column and the III/1991 row, a -0.6 percent rate; similarly, the annual rate of
change from 1/1990 to IV/1991 is -0.2 percent. Reading down the diagonal gives the growth rate from one quarter
to the next.

Real Gross Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

Annual Rates
2-91

2-90

1.5

3-90

0.3

-0.9

4-90

-0.8

-2.0

-3.2

1-91

-1.1

-2.0

-2.6

-2.1

2-91

-0.5

-1.0

-1.0

0.0

2.2

3-91

-0.3

-0.6

-0.5

0.3

1.6

1.0

4-91

-0.2

-0.5

-0.4

0.3

1.1

0.5

4,917.1
4,906.5
4,867.2
4,842.0

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.




3-91

2

4,867.9
4,879.9
0.1

4,880.8

Gross Domestic Product
Seasonally Adjusted

Trillions of Dollars

Trillions of Dollars

Real GDP is measured using 1987 prices.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.

Gross Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
5.9
4.5
3.1
3.3
1.0
2,1
3.2
2.8
2.3
1.9
3.6
5.0
3.0
2.9
3.9
3.6
4.4
3.2
3.8
3.1
3.9
3.5
3.8
3.2
2.6
3.1
3.0
3.5
3.9
7.1
3.6
3.7
4.2
4.6
4.5
4.8
4.0
3.8
4.7
6.1
3.9
4.4
4.7
4.9
4.1
4.7
4.9
5.7
3.9
4.8
4.0
4.5
4.5
4.4
5.3
5.3
5.6
6.4
4.5
5.0
4.5
5.2
5.4
4.4
5.2
6.0
4.5
4.9
4.5
5.1
5.3
4.4
5.1
5.7
4.5
4.8
4.4
4.9
4.9
5.1
5.4
4.3
4.4
4.7
4.7
5.2
4.6
5.2
5.4
5.7
4.7
5.0
4.7
4.7
5.3
5.4
5.8
5.3
4.8
5.1
5.4
5.4
5.6
5.9
4.9
4.8
4.9
5.2
5.0
4.9
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.9
5.0
5.3
5.0
5.6
5.7
6.0
5.0
5.5
5.1
5.4
1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

5,540.9
5,583.8
5,597.9

'
5,636.8

5,705.9
5,759.9

5.2
5.0
6.2
5.8
5.4
5.2
5.5
5.6
5.8
5.8
5.9

4.9
6.7
6.0
5.5
5.2
5.6
5.7
5.8
5.9
5.9

8.6
6.5
5.7
5.2
5.7
5.8
6.0
6.0
6.0

4.4
4.3
4.1
5.0
5.2
5.5
5.6
5.7

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

Fourth quarter data are final estimates.




Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94

4.2
4.0
5.2
5.4
5.8
5.9
5.9

3.8
5.7
5.9
6.2
6.2
6.2

7.7
6.9
7.0
6.8
6.7

6.1
6.6
6.5
6.5

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

7.2
6.7
6.6

6.2
6.3

6.4

5,796.6
5,896.8
5,971.3
6,043.6
6,169.3
6,235.9
6,299.9
6,359.2
6,478.1
6,574.7
6,689.9
6,791.7
6,897.2

1-94 2-94 3-94

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 3 1 ,1 9 9 5

3

Real Gross Domestic Product

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

199 4

1995

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
— —— Percent change from the previous year
— — — - Ten-year moving average of the growth rate

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Gross Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94

1-90
1.5
0.3
-0.8
-1.1
-0.5
-0.3
-0.2
0.2
0.4
0.7
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.1
2.2

2-90 3-90 4-90
-0.9
-2.0
-2.0
-1.0
-0.6
-0.5
0.0
0.3
0.7
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.7
1.8
2.0
2.1
2.2

-3.2
-2.6
-1.0
-0.5
-0.4
0.2
0.5
0.9
1.4
1.4
1.5
16
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.3
2.4

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

-2.1
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.8
1.1
1.4
2.0
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.8

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90

2.2
1.6
1.1
1.6
1.7
2.0
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.8
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.1

1.0
0.5
1.4
1.6
2.0
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.2

0.1
1.6
1.9
2.3
3.0
2.7
2.6
2.6
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.4

3.1
2.8
3.0
3.7
3.2
3.0
3.0
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.6

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

2.4
2.9
3.9
3.2
3.0
3.0
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7

3.5
4.6
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.7
3.8

5.7
3.4
3.1
3.0
3.6
3.6
3.7
3.7
3.9

12
1.8
2.1
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.6

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Fourth quarter data are final estimates.




Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94

2.4
2.5
3.8
3.7
3.7
3.8
4.0

2.7
4.5
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.2

6.3
4.8
4.6
4.4
4.6

3.3
3.7
3.8
4.1

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

4.1
4.1
4.4

4.0
4.6

5.1

1-94 2-94 3-94

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 31,1995

4

4,917.1
4,906.5
4,867.2
4,842.0
4,867.9
4,879.9
4,880.8
4,918.5
4,947.5
4,990.5
5,060.7
5,075.3
5,105.4
5,139.4
5,218.0
5,261.1
5,314.1
5,367.0
5,433.8

Implicit Price Deflator for GDP
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Implicit Price Deflator
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90
4.4
4.2
4.0
4.2
4.1
4.3
4.4
4.4
5.0
4.6
4.1
4.0
4.0
3.9
3.8
3.7
3.7
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.5
3.3
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.4
3.3
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.0
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.0
3.2
3.3
3.1
3.0
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.9
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.8
2.9
2.7
2.8
2.6
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.5

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

1-94 2-94 3-94
112.7
113.8
115.0

116.4
2.8
2.8
2.8
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.3

117.2
2.8
2.7
3.1
3.0
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.3

118.0
2.7
3.2
3.1
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.3

3.8
3.2
2.6
2.6
2.8
2.6
2.3
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.2

2.7
2.0
2.2
2.5
2.3
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.1

1.3
2.0
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.0

2.7
3.0
2.5
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.2
2,1

3.3
2.5
2.0
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.1
2.0

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

Fourth quarter data are final estimates.




1987=100
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1.6
1.3
1.3
1.7
1.9
1.9
1.8

1.0
1.1
1.3
1.7
2.1
2.9
2.0
2.4
2.9
2.3
2.6
2.0
2.1
2.3
1.9
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

2.9
2.4
2.0

1.9
1.6
1.3
1-94 2-94 3-94

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 31, 1995

5

118.8
119.9
120.7
121.1
121.9
122.9
123.4
123.7
124.1
125.0
125.9
126.5
126.9

GDP Fixed Weight Deflator
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90
4.4
4.7
5.1
4.3
4.3
3.5
4.6
4.4
5.3
4.6
4.3
4.3
4.0
4.2
4.1
4.0
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.6
3.6
3.9
3.8
3.6
3.6
3.9
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.7
3.4
3.4
3.6
3.6
3.4
3.4
3,6
3.4
3.4
3.7
3.6
3.4
3.3
3.5
3.6
3.2
3.2
3.4
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.2
3,2
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.1
3 1

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

3.1
3.1
3.0
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

1987=100
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1-94 2-94 3-94
112.9
114.3
115.3
116.8
117.7
118.6
119.4
120.5
121.5
122.3
123.2
124.4
125.2
125.8
126.6
127.5

3.1
2.7
3.2

2.9
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2

3.3
3.1
3.1
3.2

3.1
3.0
3.0
3.0
3,0
3.0
2.9

3.1
3.0
2.9
2.9
3.0
2.9
2.9

3.7
3.5
3.3
3.2
3.3
3.2
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0

3.4
3.0
3.0
3.2

2.7
2.8
3.2

3.1
2.9
2.9
2.9

3.0
2.8
2.8
2.8

2.9
2.9

2.8
2.8

2.9

2.8

3.0
3.5
3.2
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.9

4.0
3.3
2.8
2.8
2.8

2.6
2.3
2.4
2.5

2.8
2.8
2.8

2.6
2.7
2.7

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

Fourth quarter data are final estimates.

1.9
2.2
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.7

2.6
2.7

2.9

2.9
2.9
2.9

3.0
3.0
2.9

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

3.2
3.0
2.9

2.8
2.8

128.5
129.4
130.3

2.8

1-94 2-94 3-94

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 31, 1995

Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90
4.3
5.2
6.1
6.7
5.7
6.4
3.4
5.4
5.1
5.1
4.2
4.6
4.7
2.9
3.9
3.0
4.3
4.3
4.2
4.2
3.8
3.1
4.1
3.7
4.1
3.1
4.0
3.7
4.0
3.2
3.7
3.4
3.8
3.0
3.8
3 1
3.8
3.5
3.7
3.6
3.4
3.0
3.6
3.5
3.3
3.0
3.4
3.4
3.1
2.8
3.3
3.3
3,1
2.8
3.2
3.1
2.9
2.6
3.2
2.7
3.1
2.9
3.2
2.7
3.1
3.0
3.1
2.9
2.7
3.1

1-91 2-91

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91

2.4
2.7
2.9
3.0
3.2
2.9
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.6

3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.0
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.6

3-91 4-91

3.4
3.4
3.5
3.0
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.8
2.7
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.6

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

1-94 2-94 3-94
113.9
115.6
117.5
118.5
119.2
120.1
121.1
122.1

3.3
3.5
2.9
3 1
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.5

3-91 4-91

3.7
2.6
3.1
2.9
2.8
2.6
2.5
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.4

123.2
1.6
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.3

3.9
3.3
2.9
2.5
2.5
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.4

2.3
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.3

2.6
2.4
2.0
2.1
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.2

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

Fourth quarter data are final estimates.




1987=100
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

2.2
1.8
1.9
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.2

1.3
1.7
1.6
2.0
2.2
2.2

2.2
1.7
2.2
2.4
2.3

1.3
2.2
2.5
2.4

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

3.2
3.2
2.7

3.1
2.5

1.9

1-94 2-94 3-94

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 31, 1995

6

123.7
124.9
125.7
126.4
126.8
127.5
127.9
128.9
129.9
130.5

Consumer Price Index
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1989

1990

1991

1992

Percent

1993

199 4

1995

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Consumer Price Index
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
8-93
9-93
10-93
11-93
12-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
5-94
6-94
7-94
8-94
9-94
10-94
11-94
12-94
1-95
2-95

Initial Month
7-93 8-93 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95
2.5
1.7

2.8
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.6
2.7

0.8
3.4
3.1
2.9
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.7
2.7

5.9
4.2
3.6
2.9
3.0
2.9
2.9
2.7
2.9
2.9

2.9
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.8

2.9
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.8

3.1
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.9

3.1
2.9

2.5
2.5
1.9
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.5
2.6
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.7

2.5
1.7
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.5
2.6
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.7

0.8
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.1
2.5
2.6
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.7

1982-84=100
144.9
145.0
145.7
146.0
146.3
146.4

3.3
2.9
2.8
2.5
2.8
2.9
3.2
3.1
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.9

2.5
2.5
2.2
2.7
2.8
3,2
3.1
2.9
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.9

2.5
2.1
2.7
2.9
3.3
3.2
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.9
2.9

1.6
2.9
3.0
3.5
3.3
3.0
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.9

4.1
3.7
4.1
3.7
3.3
3.0
2.9
3.1
3.1

146.8
147.1
147.4
147.6
148.1
148.5

3.3
4.1
3.6
3.1
2.8
2.7
2.9
3.0

5.0
3.7
3.0
2.6
2.6
2.8
2,9

2.4
2.0
1.9
2.0
2.4
2.6

1.6
1.6
1.9
2.4
2.6

1.6
2.0
2.7
2.8

2.4
3.2
3.2

4.1
3.7

3.2

149.1
149.4
149.6
149.8
150.1
150.6
151.0

7-93 8-93 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 31, 1995

7

Producer Price Index - Finished Goods
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

/s 'x V -

\
b

' A

*"e

Percent

ss Food and Erlergy

v
\

N» V

f \ .

F>PI
1

1

1

1989

i

r -i—

'

1990

I

1

1

1991

1

1... 1

1

‘

t

1993

1992

i

1

t—

1994

r

i

■

1995

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Producer Price Index - Finished Goods
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
8-93
9-93
10-93
11-93
12-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
5-94
6-94
7-94
8-94
9-94
10-94
11-94
12-94
1-95
2-95

7-93 8-93 9-93 10-93 11-93
-9.2
-3.8 2.0
-2.5
1.0
0.0
-1.2
2.9
1.6
1.5
-1.1
1.0
0.6
1.0 -1.0
0.0
2.4
1.9
1.9
2.6
0.4
2.1
2.1
2.7
2.6
0.4
2.1
1.8
1.8
1.9
0.3
16
1.5
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.1
0.2
1.3
1.2
1.3
1.2
1.3
1.1
0.3
0.5
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.3
1.9
1.8
2.0
1.0
1.9
1.4
1.4
1.4
0.6
1.5
1.0
0.8
0.3
1.0
0.9
1.4
0.7
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.7
1.6
1.6
0.9
1.5
1.7
1.8
1.7
1.1
1.7
1.8
1.9
1.2
1.8
1.9

Initial Month
12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95

1982=100
123.9

124.1
124.1
124.4
5.9
4.4
2.9
2.2
1.6
1.5
1.7

2.9
1.4
1.0
0.5
0.6
1.0

2.3
1.6
1.0
1.5
1.8
1.9
2.1

1.8
1.1
0.4
1.1
1.4
1.6
1.8

0.0
0.0
-0.3
0.0
0.6
1.6
0.8
0.1
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.7

124.3
124.9
125.2
125.2
0.0
-0.5
0.0
0.7

-1.0
0.0
1.0

1.0
1.9

2.9

1.9
1.0
0.1
1.0
1.4
1.6
1.8

2.4
1.2
0.2
1.1
1.6
1.8
2.0

3.6
1.7
0.4
1.4
1.9
2.2
2.4

4.9
1.9
0.2
1.5
2.1
2.3
2.5

6.9
1.4
-0.6
1.2
1.9
2.2
2.5

125.2
125.1
125.2
125.5
126.2
125.8

-3.7
-4.2
-0.6
0.7
1.3
1.8

-4.7
1.0
2.2
2.6
2.9

6.9
5.9
5.2
4.9

4.9
4.4
4.2

3.9
3.9

3.8

125.3
126.0
126.5
126.9
127.3

7-93 8-93 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 31, 1995

8

Employment Cost Index and Its Components
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Benefits
/V

f V
*

*

-

1

\

f

- t-

\
1

>

1

------ n

/

& .......... ...

V

/

............
\
N s

------ ^

. /

X

T<jta l Com pensa tion

\
>>
\
\

.. \

wages

and Salai ie s

^

^

_
•

\

> -------\
N

r

r_ i

• '

1.....1... 1
1990

1989

i

1

i

■

1991

1

1

1

[ t

1992

|

'

1

1993

1

1

1

J --T —
1995

1994

Total compensation is the sum of wages, salaries and benefits for private industry workers.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Employment Cost Index - Total Compensation
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
5.1
4.7
4.3
3.8
4.4
4.0
4.4
4.2
4.2
4.6
4.4
4.9
4.5
4.4
4.7
4.4
4.3
4.1
4.3
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.3
4.3 4.4
4.0
4.3
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.2
4.2
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.3
4.1
4.2
4.0
4.1
4.0
3.7
3.6
3.4
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.4
3.2
3.6
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.6
3.5
3.4
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.6
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.9 - 3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
4.0
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.6
3.8
3.7
3.9
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.4
3.7
3.7
3.5
3.5
3.7
3.8
3.7
3.5
3.4
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.7
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.6
1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

2.9
2.9
3.2
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.3

2.8
3.4
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.4

3.9
4.1
3.9
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.4

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

Data are tor the last month of quarter.




4.2
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.4

June 1989=100
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

3.5
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.2

3.4
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.2

3.4
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.2

3.0
3.2
3.2
3.1

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1-94 2-94 3-94

3.4
3.3
3.1

2.6

1-94 2-94 3-94

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 3 1 ,1 9 9 5

9

3.3
3.0

105.1
106.2
107.2
108.4
109.7
110.8
111.9
113.0
113.8
114.6
115.7
116.9
117.9
118.9
119.9
120.8
121.8
122.8
123.6

Business Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

1989

1990

1991

1992

Percent

1993

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

1 99 4

1995

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Business Sector - Output Per Hour
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90
3.3
1.1 -1.1
0.4 -1.1 -1.1
1.1
0.4
1.1
3.3
2.7
1.3
0.8
1.4
1.4
0.9
2.3
1.3
1.4
1.6
2.3
11
1.7
2.2
2.9
1.9
1.7
2.0
2.6
1.8
2.0
1.9
2.3
2.8
2.0
2.4
2.8
2.1
1.9
1.6
2.3
1.8
2.1
1.7
16
1.8
1.7
2.2
1.9
1.8

4-93
1-94

2.1
2.1

2-94
3-94
4-94

1.9
2.0
2.0

2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92

2.0
2.0
1.8
1.9
1.9

2.2
2.3
2.0
2.1
2.1

2.5
2.5
2.2
2.3
2.3

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90




1-91 2-91

3-91 4-91

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92
111.1

1982=100
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1-94 2-94 3-94

110.8
110.5
111.4
2.2
1.8
1.9
2.8
2.4
2.7
2.7
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.4
2.5
2.1
2.2
2.2

1.4
1.8
3.0
2.5
2.8

2.2
3.8
2.9
3.1

2.8
2.1

3.1
2.2

1.9
2.1
2.5
2.5
2.1
2.2
2.2

2.0
2.2

3.4
2.3
2.0
2.2

2.6
2.6
2.2
2.3
2.2

2.6
2.6
2.2
2.3
2.2

1-91 2-91

5.4
3.2
3.4

3-91 4-91

1.1
2.5
2.7
1.5
1.3
1.6
2.2
2.3
1.8
2.0
2.0

112.0
112.4
113.0
114.5
114.8
115.9

3.9
3.5
1.6
1.4
1.7

3.1
0.5
0.6
1.2

2.4
2.5
1.9
2.1
2.1

2.1
2.2
1.6
1.9
1.9

-2.0
-0.7
0.6
1.9
2.0
1.4
1.7
1.7

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

0.7
1.9
32
3.1

3.1
4.5
3.9

2.1
2.3
2.2

2.4
2.7
2.5

5.9
4.3
2.2
2.6
2.4

2.7
0.3
1.5

-2.0
0.8

3.7

1.5

1.1

2.7

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1.7

116.8
116.2
116.4
117.3
119.0
119.8
119.2
120.3
120.8

1-94 2-94 3-94

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 31, 1995

10

Industrial Production
Seasonally Adjusted
1987 -10 0

1987-100

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Industrial Production
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
8-93
9-93
10-93
11-93
12-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
5-94
6-94
7-94
8-94
9-94
10-94
11-94
12-94
1-95
2-95

7-93 8-93 9-93 10-93
2.2
2.7
3.3
2.7
2.2
2.5
4.6
5.5
6.6 11.2
5.9
6.8
8.1 11.1
5.4
4.9
6.0
7.3
6.2
5.6
6.7
7.9
6.2
6.8
7.4
8.5
5.6
6.1
6.5
7.2
6.2
5.8
6.6
7.3
5.9
6.2
7.1
6.6
5.5
5.8
6.1
6.6
5.8
6.1
6.4
6.9
5.3
5.6
5.8
6.1
5.3
5.6
5.7
6.0
5.5
5.7
5.9
6.2
6.0
6.3
6.5
6.8
5.9
6.1
6.3
6.5
5.9
6.1
6.3
6.5

Initial Month
11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95

11.1
5.4
6.9
7.8
6.4
6.6
6.6
6.0
6.4
5.6
5.6
5.8
6.5
6.2
6.2

0.0
4.8
6.8
5.3
5.7
5.8
5.3
5.8
5.0
5.0
5.3
6.1
5.9
5.9

9.8
10.4
7.2
7.2
7.0
6.2
6.7
5.7
5.6
5.9
6.7
6.4
6.3

10.9
5.8
6.4
6.4
5.5
6.1
5.1
5.1
5.5
6.4
6.1
6.1

1987=100
112.2
112.5
112.7
113.7
114.7
114.7
115.6
116.6

1.0
4.2
4.9
4.2
5.2
4.2
4.3
4.8
5.9
5.6
5.6

116.7
7.4
6.9
5.2
6.3
4.8
4.9
5.3
6.5
6.1
6.1

6.3
4.2
5.9
4.1
4.3
5.0
6.4
5.9
5.9

2.1
5.7
3.4
3.9
4.7
6.4
5.9
5.9

9.5
4.1
4.5
5.4
7.3
6.5
6.5

-1.0
2.0
4.1
6.7
5.9
6.0

5.2
6.7
9.4
7.8
7.4

8.3
11.6
8.6
8.0

14.9
8.8
7.9

3.0
4.5

6.1

117.4
118.0
118.2
119.1
119.0
119.5
120.3
121.7
122.0
122.6

7-93 8-93 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 31, 1995

11

Civilian Employment and Unemployment Rate
Millions of Persons

Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
January 1994 figures reflect revised data collection procedures and are not directly comparable with previous data.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Civilian Employment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
8-93
9-93
10-93
11-93
12-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
5-94
6-94
7-94
8-94
9-94
10-94
11-94
12-94
1-95
2-95

Millions of
Initial Month
7-93 8-93 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95
3.3
1.0 -1.2
*****
-tty
3.8
1.9
1.3
2.4
2.2
3.9
4.0
3.7
2.4
3.7
2.6
3.3
6.0
6.7
8.1
13.1
4.3
4.5
4.1
4.2
5.4
6.4
5.8
7.9
3.0
4.4
3.5
3.6
4.5
4.6
5.1
122.160
1.3 -0.5
3.4
3.4
4.1
4.1
4.2
1.0
4.4
2.4
1.6
3.4
4.0
4.0
3.4
4.0
4.1
1.6
2.7
2.0
3.0
3.0
3.4
3.4
3.0
3.3
1.1
1.6
1.1 -0.7
3.3
1.4
1.2
0.4
2.8
3.2
3.2
3.1
1.4
1.1
1.5
1.4
2.9
3.0
2.9
3.3
3.2
2.0
2.0
1.6
4.1
3.0
3.3
1.8
1.6
2.8
3.2
2.4
2.5
2.3
3.0
3.4
3.4
2.1
2.0
3.3
4.3
4.4
3.1
3.3
3.3
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.5
2.4
3.7
4.5
4.7
4.9
3.2
3.2
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.5
2.4
4.0
4.0
3.7
3.1
3.1
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.5
2.6
3.5
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.4
2.3
3.2
3.5
3.4
3.0
2.1
1.6
3.1
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.0
3.3
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.2
2.2
2.8
2.8
2.4
0.7
3.0
3.0
1.6
1.1
2.9
2.9
3.2
3.1
3.1
2.7
2.7
2.4
2.4
2.6
3.1
3.2
2.9
3.2
3.3
2.4
2.3
2.7
4.8
3.0
3.0
3.3
3.2
3.2

Persons
119.692
119.568
119.941
120.332
120.661
121.903
122.208
122.402
122.703
122.635
122.781
123.197
123.644
124.141
124.403
124.570
124.639
125.125

7-93 8-93 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 31, 1995

12

Payroll Employment
Seasonally Adjusted

Millions of Persons

Millions of Persons

120

120

É

115

l

115

2 .2 *
1 -1 .9 *

110

110

-0 .3 *

1 .9 *

ayroll Employrr le n t

P

1

105

100

1

1

1

1989

j

l
1990

1

105

'
1991

r "r
1992

1

1

1

1993

1

1
1994

'

1

1

1 ™|

100

1995

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Payroll Employment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
8-93
9-93
10-93
11-93
12-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
5-94
6-94
7-94
8-94
9-94
10-94
11-94
12-94
1-95
2-95

Millions of
Persons
Initial Month
7-93 8-93 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95
110.714
0.9
2.3
110.923
1.6
111.112
1.8
2.2
2.1
2.4
2.0
2.4
2.8
111.366
2.1
2.4
2.7
2.5
2.7
111.610
2.0
2.2
2.1
2.2
1.1
1.9
111.711
1.7
2.0
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.0
111,919
2.5
2.3
2.5
3.2
4.1
2.6
2.5
2.5
112.298
2.7
2,5
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.6
4.3
2.9
4.4
112,699
2.7
2.5
2.8
2.9
3.4
3.7
2.9
2.9
2.7
3.5
112.951
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.5
3,8
3.7
3.0
3.1
3.4
113.334
4.1
2.7
2.9
2.9
3.5
3.1
3.7
3.0
3.1
3.6
3.3
3.6
113.624
3.1
2.7
2.9
2.9
3.1
3.1
3.4
3.0
3,6
3.5
3.3
113.914
3.5 3.1
3.1
2.9
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.3
3.5
3.4
3.2
114.186
3.3
3.0
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.2
1.7
3.3
3.1
2.9
3.0
2.7
2.3
114.348
2.6
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.1
3.2
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.7
5.8
3.4
114.882
3.3
3.0
3.0
2.8
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.3
3.4
4.1
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.3
2.4
3.3
115,113
2.9
2.9
2.8
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.2
3.3
3.2
2.9
3.3
2.1
3.1
3.1
3.0
2.9
1.9
3.0
115.289
2.9
2.8
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.0
3.3
115.607
3.3
3.2
3.1
3,0
3.0
3.0
2.5
3.1
2.6 3.4
7-93 8-93 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 31,1995

13

Real Personal Income
Trillions of Dollars

Seasonally Adjusted

Trillions of Dollars

Real incomes are computed using the personal consumption expenditure deflator (1987=100).
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Disposable Personal Income
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Billions of Dollars
Initial Month
7-93 8-93 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95
13.0
8-93
9-93
5.6 -1.2
1.4
4.1
10-93 5.1
11-93 5.0
2.5
4.4
4.6
3.7
12-93 5.5
7.5
5.4
6.0
1-94
3.1
1.2
1.1 -0.6 -8.1
1.8
2-94
5.1
5.1
5.3
4.2 18.1
3.9
4.9
3-94
4.9
4.7
4.7
3.8
4.6
3.8 10.4 3.1
4-94
3.9
3.4
3.2
3.0
5.4 -0.4 -3.8
2.8
1.9
5-94
4.2
4.2
6.7
3.2
4.5
3.6
4.3
3.6
3.2 10.6
6-94
4.0
3.2
3.7
3.6
3.5
2.8
5.2
2.2
1.9 4.8 -0.6
7-94
3.8
3.0
3.5
3.4
3.3
2.7
2.1
1.8
4.6
3.8
0.5
1.6
3.4
2.9
8-94
3.9
3.1
3.5
3.5
2.4
3.9
1.7
4.5
2.3
2.9
4.2
9-94
3.4
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.2
4.0
4.7
2.9
2.9
4.3
2.7
3.9
5.1
5.9
10-94 4.8
4.2
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.5
4.7
6.2
4.5
5.4
6.0
6.9
8.7 11.1 16.5
11-94 4.4
3.8
4.2
4.2
4.1
3.8
5.0
5.1
3.8
4.1
3.8
5.0
5.9
6.5
6.8 - 2 . 2
12-94 4.6
4.1
4.4
5.4
4.5
4.5
4.2
4.7
5.4
4.2
4.3
5.6
6.4
7.3
6.9
3.0
8.4
4.4
4.1
1-95
4.5
4.0
4.4
4.3
4.5
4.2
5.1
5.2
5.2
4.1
5.8
6.2
6.1
3.0
5.6
3.0
4.1
2-95
4.5 4.0
4.3
4.4
5.1
4.4
4.3
5.1
4.2
5.6
5.0
4.1
5.8
5.8
3.3
5.1
3.6
4.2
7-93 8-93 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95
Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.




Annual Rates

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of
March 3 1 ,1 9 9 5

14

3,722.2
3,718.4
3.730.9
3,745.0
3,767.6
3,741.1
3,793.3
3,803.1
3,790.9
3,822.9
3,820.9
3,826.0
3,839.2
3,857.6
3,907.0
3,899.9
3,926.1
3,935.7
3.949.1

St. Louis

Retail Sales
Billions of Dollars

Seasonally Adjusted
Billions of Dollars

The CPI is used to deflate retail sales data (1 9 8 2 -8 4 —100).
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Retail Sales
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
8-93
9-93
10-93
11-93
12-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
5-94
6-94
7-94
8-94
9-94
10-94
11-94
12-94
1-95
2-95

Initial Month
Millions of Dollars
7-93 8-93 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95
119.932
2.3
1.3
0.3
119.961
5.7
7.5 15.1
121.377
7.2 10.8
6.7
6.0
122.030
6.6
7.7 10.2
9.1
122.921
7.9
3.1
4.0
3.3
0.6 -2.3 -12.6
121.553
5.4
7.1
5.2
4.8
6.0
2.6 20.5
123.458
7.3
8.1
9.4
8.7
125.484
8.3
8.6 21.0 21.6
4.7
6.4
34 9.7 4.6 -10.0
5.3
5.0
124.389
5.6
6.2
1.8 -6.8 -3.6
4.3
2.1
4.6
5.1
3.8
3.3
124.012
3.8 -1.5
3.0 10.0
4.8
3.4
6.9
5.1
4.5
4.2
5.6
124.999
2.4 -1.9
4.1
5.2
0.9
3.2 -3.2
4.7
3.6
3.3
4.3
2.4
124.663
4.2
3.9
6.3
1.0
6.6
4.8
4.6
4.4
3.8
4.9 13.6
5.5
125.997
5.1
2.0
6.4
4.6
4.5
4.1
6.7
5.6 10.3
7.0
5.0
5.2
4.8
4.6
5.6
126.712
5.9
5.6
3.5
7.1
7.9
7.4 11.2
5.5
6.2
5.4
5.0
9.9 12.9
5.7
5.5
128.003
3.3
5.4
5.2
4.7
6.6
6.4
7.4
7.5
2.3
5.3
5.9
5.2
5.1
7.0
8.9
5.5
128.251
2.9
4.6
4.6
4.7
0.8 -0.7
4.9
5.1
4.8
4.6
4.3
6.0
5.8
5.X
5.3
5.4
6.9
128.176
4.4
4.2
5.7
4.4
2.9
5.4
4.8
4.7
4.5
4.8
4.8
4.2
1.5
1.1
2.9
5.0
5.3
6.2
128.477
3.2
1.8
3.1
4.1
3.8
3.6
4.6
3.3
3.9
3.1
4.2
4.4
1.7 -1.0 *2.1 -2.7 -8.0
127.584
4.1
2.5

7-93 8-93 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95
Dollars are measured using the CPI (1982-84=100).
Revised from 1987 to the present.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 31, 1995

15

Total Business Inventory/Sales Ratio
Seasonally Adjusted

Ratio

Ratio

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Inventories and Sales
(Billions of Dollars)

Manufacturing
Period
1991
1992
1993
1994

Shipments
235.49
244.33
258.34
280.38

Inventories
391.87
383.07
380.18
384.58

Retail Trade Total Business
Sales
154.67
162.05
172.72
186.13

Inventories
238.76
246.47
260.99
278.80

Sales
538.46
560.02
592.80
639.24

Inventories
827.71
832.79
853.49
888.42

1994
January
'*? February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

268.33
271.82
274.50
274.24
276.23
278.57
275.49
288.08
286.13
283.98
291.19
296.05

378.91
380.07
379.77
380.65
382.38
383.11
386.65
387.01
386.53
388.06
389.99
391.81

177.95
181.24
184.59
183.35
183.04
185.12
185.13
187.86
189.31
191.49
192.12
192.39

267.05
268.77
269.11
270.57
275.17
278.95
276.49
283.52
287.25
288.67
289.99
290.02

611.25
619.59
628.43
625.93
628.71
634.57
631.79
652.89
651.40
653.12
661.90
671.28

862.84
867.40
866.30
870.78
880.51
884.89
889.41
897.79
902.12
908.57
913.83
916.55

1995
January
February

297.79
299.33

396.10
399.22

193.49
192.65

292.95
N.A.

672.61
N.A.

925.12
N.A.

Note: Total business includes manufacturing, retail trade and merchant wholesalers; manufacturing sales are
measured by shipments.
Revised from 1987, reflecting revisions in retail and wholesale trade.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

16

Real Final Sales and Real GDP
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent

Percent

Real final sales and real GDP are measured using 1987 prices.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Final Sales
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

Annual Rates

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94
4,889.0

0.5
-0.0
-0.8
-0.2
-0.3
-0.3
0.4
0.6
0.9
1.3
1.2
1.3
1.5
1.8
1.8
1.8
2.0
2.2
2-90

4,895.6
-0.6
-1.5

-2.4
-0.3
-0.5 -0.5
-0.5 -0.4
0.4
0.6
0.6 0.8
1.1
0.9
1.7
1.4
1.5
1.3
1.6
1.4
1.7
1.5
1.9 2.1
1.9 2.1
1.9 2.1
2.2
2.1
2.4
2.3
3-90 4-90

t
o

1-90
-0.4
0.1
-0.2
-0.7
-0.2
-0.3
-0.3
0.3
0.4
0.7
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.8
2.0
1-90

1.8
0.5 -0.8
0.2 -0.5 -0.2
1.4
4.8
1.2 2.3
1.5
1.4
1.3 2.0 3.1
3.2
2.5
1.7
1.7 2.4
3.5
2.3 2.4 3.0 3.8
2.5
3.1
2.7
2.0
2.1
2.5 3.0 2.6
2.1
2.1
2.7
3.0
2.2
2.2 2.6
2.6 2.6 3.0 3.4 3.2
3.3
3.1
2.5
2.6 2.9
2.8 3.1
2.9
2.4 2.5
2.6
2.6 2.9 3.2 3.1
3.1
2.8 2.9
3.3
1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92
CO

2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter

3.5
5.6
4.5
3.1
2.9 0.2
2.9 2.7
1.3
3.0 2.8
1.9
3.5 3.5 3.0
3.3 3.3 2.9
3.1
3.1
2.6
3.2 3.2 2.9
3.5 3,5 3.2
2-92 3-92 4-92

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Fourth quarter data are final estimates.




2.4
2.8
4.0
3.5
3.1
3.3
3.7
1-93

3.2
4.8
3.9
3.3
3.5

6.4
4.3
2.2
3.4
1.8
1.5
3.6
2.6
2.9
4.3
3.9 4.0 3.4 3.8 5.0 5.7
2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 31,1995

17

4,888.0
4,858.4
4,879.8
4,869.5
4,867.3
4,924.8
4,943.2
4,985.3
5,054.1
5,056.8
5,086.5
5,126.5
5,207.2
5,235.7
5,254.9
5,310.0
5.384.4

Components of Real GDP Growth Rate

Real GDP

4 - 94

3- 94

2-94

1 -94

4-93

3-93

2-93

1- 93

5.07

4.04

4.09

3.35

6.26

2.69

2.39

1.16

Components (1)
5.66

4.21

1.47

2.20

6.43

3.17

2.36

0.21

-0.57

-0.16

2.59

1.12

-0.17

-0.46

0.03

0.94

3.39

2.04

0.88

3.11

2.67

2.61

1.75

1.10

2.22
2.12
0.10

1.40
1.67
-0.27

1.40
1.09

3.38
2.30
1.05

1.70
1.33
0.37

1.31
1.64
-0.32

1.76
1.54

0.30

1.67
1.26
0.41

-0.73
-0.97

-0.21
-0.53

-0.89
-0.72

-0.02

0.20

0.22

0.66

-0.35

-0.21

0.25

0.46

0.31

-0.16

0.33

0.41

-0.26
0.48

Net Exports
Exports

0.74
2.36

-0.39
1.71

-0.59

0.32
2.35

Imports

-1.59

-2.08

-2.41

-1.66
-0.43
-1.24

-1.33
-0.38
-0.94

Final Sales
Change in Business
Inventories
Personal Consumption
Expenditures
Fixed Investment
Nonresidential
Residential
Government Purchases
Federal
State and Local

1.13

1.86

-1.99

-0.92
0.87
-1.78

0.21
-1.11
-1.21

0.10
-1.50
-0.12
-1.38

(1) Contribution of each component to the compound annual rate of real GDP growth in each quarter indicated.
Elements may not sum to the total due to rounding.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1 92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
0.9
2.1
1.5
0.1 -0.3 -2.7
-0.7 -1.2 -2.7 -2.8
2.1
-0.1 -0.4 -1.2 -0.4
0.1 -0.0 -0.6
0.2
1.7
1.3
0.0 -0.1 -0.6 -0.0
0.9
0.4 -0.5
0.7
0.7
1.1
2.1
2.1
0.5
2.6
5.8
0.8
0.8
0.6
1.2
2.0
2.0
2.3
3.7
1.1
1.2
1.0
1.6
2.4
2.7
3.8
2.3
4.2
1.5
1.6
1.5
3.3
2.1
2.8
2.9
3.7
1.5
1.6
1.5
2.0
2.7
2.7
3.0
3.5
1.6
1.7
1.6
2.7
2.9
2 1 2.6
3.6
1.8
1.8
1.8
3.0
2.3
2.8
2.8
2.0
3.6
1.9
2.0
2.4
2.9
3.2
3.0
2.2
2.2
3.7
2.6
3.0
3.3
2.1
3.1
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.5
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.5
2.9
2.2
2.2
2.5
3.0
3.1
3.5
2.1
3.0
2.3
2.3
27
3.1
3.3
2.4
3.6
1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

3,271.6
3,288.4
3,265.9
3,242.9
3,259.5
3,269.8

1.7
2.8
3.7
3.2
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.5
3.2
3.2
3.4

3.9
4.7
3.7
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.4
3.4
3.6

5.6
3.6
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.7
3.4
3.3
3.5

1.6
2.1
2.7
3.0
3.3
3.0
3.0
3.3

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Fourth quarter data are final estimates.




Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94

2.6
3.2
3.5
3.8
3,3
3.2
3.5

3.9
3.9
4.2
3.4
3.4
3.7

4.0
4.3
3.3
3.2
3.6

4.7
3.0
3.0
3.5

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1.3
2.2
3.1

3.1
4.1

5.1

3,265.3
3,311.4
3,325.4
3,357.6
3,403.4
3,417.2
3,439.2
3,472.2
3,506.2
3,546.3
3,557.8
3,584.7
3,629.6

1-94 2-94 3-94

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 3 1 ,1 9 9 5

18

Real Residential Fixed Investment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94

1-90
-18.3
-20.2
-21.6
-22.4
-18.0
-13.2
-9.6
-6.1
-3.2
-2.8
-0.7
-0.2
-0.8
-0.1
1.6
2.1
2.4
1.9
1.9

2-90 3-90 4-90
-22.1
-23.2
-23.7
-17.9
-12.1
-8.0
-4.2
-1.2
-1.0
1.3
1.6
0.8
1.5
3.2
3.6
3.8
3.2
3.2

-24.3
-24.5
-16.5
-9.4
-4.9
-0.8
2.2
2.1
4.3
4.4
3.2
3.7
5.4
5.8
5.8
5.1
4.9

-24.8
-12.3
-3.8
0.7
4.7
7.5
6.5
8.5
8.2
6.5
6.8
8.4
8.5
8.4
7.4
7.0

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

2.2
8.7
10.9
13.7
15.4
12.9
14.4
13.2
10.7
10.6
12.0
11.9
11.5
10.1
9.6

15.6
15.6 15.6
17.8 18.9
19.0 20.2
15.1 15.0
16.5 16.7
14.9 14.7
11.8 11.2
11.5 11.0
13.1 12.8
12.8 12.5
12.3 12.0
10.8 10.4
10.1 9.7

1-91 2-91 3-91

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

22.4
22.6 22.7
14.8 11.2
17.0 15.3
14.6 12.7
10.5 8.3
10.4 8.5
12.5 11.1
12.2 11.0
11,6 10.5
9.9
8.7
9.3
8.1
4-91

0.8
11.7 23.8
9.5 14.2
5.0
6.4
5.9
7.2
9.3 11.1
9.4 10.9
9.1 10.3
7.3
8.1
6.8
7.5

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

5.3
-1.3
2.1

-7.6
0.6

9.4

8.1
8.5
8.2
6.1
5.6

9.0
9.3
8.8
6.2
5.6

18.4 28.2
15.5 18.7
13.3 14.7
9.2
9.1
8.0
7.7

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Fourth quarter data are final estimates.

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates

10.0
8.5
3.4
3.1

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1-94 2-94 3-94

7.0
0.3
0.9

-6.0
-2.0

2.3

201.2
189.0
176.3
164.2
165.1
171.2
177.5
186.7
196.5
196.9
207.7
210.4
206.3
211.0
224.5
229.9
233.8
230.2
231.5

1-94 2-94 3-94

Prepared try Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 31, 1995

Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-90 3-90 4-90

t~4
t

-1.1
-0.3
1.0
2.2
2.9
4.1
4.6
4.8
5.4
6.0

K>
00

5.0
-1.6 *7.7
-5.4 -10.2
-4.8 *7.9
-4.4 -6.7
-4.7 -6.5
-4.0 -5.4
b °.

2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94

1-90
-4.1
0.4
-2.4
-5.1
*4.7
-4.4
-4.6
-4.0
*2.1
-1.4
-0.6
0.6
1.7
2.4
3.6
4.0
4.3
4.8
5.5

-1.8
-0.8
0.7
1.9
2.7
4.1
4.5
4.8
5.4
6.1

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

544.5
551.2
540.2
522.2

-12.7
-7.9
-6.3
-6.2
-5.0
-1.9
-1.0
0.1
1.6
3.0
3.8
5.1
5.5
5.8
6.3
7.0

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90

-3.0
-3.0
-3.9
-2.9
0.4
1.1
2.0
3.6
4.9
5.6
6.9
7.2
7.4
7.8
8.5

-3.0
-4.4
-2.9
1.3
2.0
2.9
4.6
5.9
6.6
7.9
8.2
8.3
8.7
9.3

1-91 2-91

-5,7
-2.9 -0.1
7.2
2.7
6.4
3.3
4.1
6.7
5.9
8.3
7.2
9.5
7.8
9.9
9.2 11,2
9.4 11.2
9.4 1 1 . 0
9.7 11.3
10.3 11,8

15.0
9.9
9.1
10.6
11.6
11.7
13.0
12.7
12.3
12.5
12.9

3-91

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

4-91

5.0
6.2
9.1
10.7
1 1 .0

12.6
12.4
12.0
12.2
12.7

7.5
11.3 15.1
12.7 15.4
12.6 14.3
14.2 16.0
13.7 14.9
13.0 13.9
13.1 14.0
13.6 14.4

15.6
13.9
16.2
14.9
13.7
13.8
14.3

12.2
16.5 21.1
14.6 15.9
13.2 13.6
13.4 13.7
14.1 14.5

10.9
10.0
11.4
12.9

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

9.2
11.6
13.6

14.1
15.9

17.6

518.3
514.4
506.9
506.8
524.8
531.2
540.9
560.3
581.0
597.9
627.2
643.6
657.9
680.0
708.2

1-94 2-94 3-94

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 31, 1995

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Fourth quarter data are final estimates.




Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94

19

Real Government Purchases of Goods and Services
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

O
o

0.5
-1.7
-2.1
-1.2
-1.6
-0.8
-0.5
-1.2
-1.0
-0.7
-0.7
-1.1
-1.1
-0.5
-0.8

r—
<
d

CN
d

o

2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90
1.1
0.2 -0.6
2.1
2.6
5.8
2.3
2.7
4.4
3.0
3.1
1-9 2.1
1.7
0.9
0.9
1.3 -0.2
0.4
0.3
0.4 -0.8
0.5
0.4
0.6 -0.4
0.1 -0.8
0.4
0.4
0.5 -0.2
0.5
0.4
0.5 -0.1
-0.1 -0.8
0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.6
-0.4
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
-0.4
0.1
-0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.7
-0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.8
0.1
0.0
0.1
-0.3
-0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94
930.6
929.2

942.4

-3.9
-3.4
-1.8
-2.1
-1.0
-0.7
-1.5
-1.1
-0.9
-0.8
-1.2
-1.2
-0.6
-0.9

-2.9
-0.7
-1.5
-0.3
-0.1
-1.1
-0.7
-0.5
-0.5
-0.9
-0.9
-0.3
-0.6

1.5
-0.8
0.6
0.7
-0.7
-0.4
-0.2
-0.2
-0.7
-0.7
-0.1
-0.4

-3.0
0.1
0.4
-1.2
-0.7
-0.4
-0.4
-1.0
-1.0
-0.2
-0.6

3.4
2.1
-0.6
-0.2
0.1
0.1
-0.7
-0.7
0.1
-0.4

0.9
-2.5
-1.3
-0.7
-0.6
-1.3
-1.3
-0.3
-0.8

-5.9
-2.4
-1.2
-1.0
-1.8
-1.7
-0.5
-1.0

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Fourth quarter data are final estimates.

1.2
1.1
07
-0.7
-0.8
0.4
-0.3

1.1
0.5
-1.3
-1.3
0.2
-0.5

-0.1
-2.5
-2.1
0.0
-0.8

-4.9
-3.1
0.1
-1.0

-1.2
2.6
0.3

6.7
1.1

-4.1

949.5
950.6
941.3
934.4
937.8
930.7
938.5
940.6
926.5
929.3
931.8
931.5
919.9
917.1
932.0
922.2

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 3 1 ,1 9 9 5

Real Federal Purchases of Goods and Services
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

-2.3
-2.5
-3.0
-3.3
-2.5
-3.2

-4.1
-4.2
-4.7
-5.0
-3.9
-4.7

-3.1
-3.4
-4.3
-4.7
-3.2
-4.3

-2.4
-2.6
-3.1
-3.4
-2.6
-3.3

-2.2
-2.4
-3.0
-3.3
-2.5
-3.2

-3.0
-3.2
-3.7
-4.0
-3.1
-3.8

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90

-4.5
-4.5
-5.1
-5.3
-4.1
-4-9

-3.7 -2.9
-3.9 -3,1
-4.5 -3.9
-4.8...-4.4
-3.6 -3.1
-4.5 -4.1

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

-2.8
-3.1
-4.2
-4.7
-3.1
-4.3

-5.4
-5.3
-6.2
-6.4
-4.4
-5.6

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

-7.5 -3.3 -3.0
-6.9 -3,9 -4.0
-7.6 -5.5 -6.1
-7.6...-6 .0 .. -6.6
-5.2 -3.4 -3.3
-6.4 -5.0 -5.3

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

1-94 2-94 3-94

_______________ ________________355.6
-5.0
351.1
-7.7 -10.3______________________________341.7
334.7
-7.8 -9.1 -7.9
343.5
-3.4 -2.9
1.1 10.9
-5.7 -5.9 -4.4 -2.6 -14,4___________ 3 3 0 *

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1-94 2-94 3-94

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 31, 1995

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Fourth quarter data are final estimates.




Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates

20

Real Exports
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates

Initial Quarter

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93
7.6
2.7 -1.9
3.7
9.6
5.0
2.1
4.1 -1.1
3.4
6.4
9.4
9.3 20.7
6.7
5.6
5.2
7.1
6.3 10.2
0.6
6.8
6.6
8.4
8.1 114
7 0 13.7
6.7
6.5
8.0
7.7 10.0
6.7
9.8
6.1
5.9
7 1 6.6
7.0
8.3
5.3
3.8
1.5
6.1
6.0
5.8
6.8
6.4
7.8
5.3
6.6
4.3
3.4
5.3
6.1
6.0
6.9
6.5
7.7
6.7
5,0 4.6
5.6
6.2
7.2
5.5
5.3
6.1
3.8
5.7
4.7
5.4
3.2
6.5
3.8
3.0 -1.0
5,7
5.5
4.1
6.2
5.9
6.7
5.7
4.4
4.7
4.6
3.2
7.7
5.0
5.0
4.8
5.4
5.0
2.8
3.1
1.0
2.1 -3.2
5.6
4.1
4.5
3.3
2.5
5.8
6,0
5.9
6.3
7.0
5.7
5.4
5.3
6.0
6.1
8.2
8.5 21.7
6.6
6.3
5.4
5.8
5.5
6.1
4.8
5.3
4.4
4.2
4.6
4.4
3.9
5.2
4.3
8.3 -3.5
5.3
6.5
6.3
6.9
5.8
6.3
6.1
7.4
6.0
5.9
5.5
5.5
6.0
5.9
7.3 11.0
6.1
6.4
7.0
6.8
7.4
7.0
6.4
7.2
7.1
8.7 12.0
6.4
6.4
6.9
8.6
8.9
6.5
7.6
8.2
7.4
7.9
7.7
7.4
7.6
8.2
8.5
8.7 10.2 10.6 13.6 11.6
7.2
7.2

1-94 2-94 3-94

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90

1-94 2-94 3-94

1-91 2-91 3-91

4-91

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Fourth quarter data are final estimates.

511.1
508.6
520.4
519.0
544.0
544.8
562.6
571.0
573.1

166
15.7
17.2

580.5
590.7
589.2
600.2
595.3
625.2
619.6
643.9
666.5
697.9

14.8
17.5 20.2

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 31, 1995

Real Imports
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91
5.4
2.9
0.5
-1.3 *-4.4 -9.1
-4.1 -7.1 -10.7 -12.2
-0,7 -2 1 -3.0
0.2 14.4
1.1
0.2
0.3
3.5 12.4
1.7
11
12
4.0 10.0
2.1
2.3
1.9
4.5
9.2
3.4
3.2
3.6
5.9
9.9
3.9
3.8
4.2
6.2
9.7
4.2
4.4
9.2
4.0
6.3
4.8
4.7
5.1
6.9
9.5
6.0
7.6 10.1
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.7
6.1
7.6
9.8
6.4
6,8
8.3 10.4
6.3
7.0
6.5
6.6
8.4 10.3
7.3
7,2
7.8
9.1 10.9
8.2
7.6
7.8
9.5 11.3
8.4
7,8
9.6 : 11.3
8.0
1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91

2-91 3-91 4-91

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

570.0
570.7
557.2
539.4
10.4
7,9
7.5

5.4
6.0
8.3
8.3
8.0
8.6
9.4
9.2

6.6
9.8 13.0
9.3 10.7
8.4
8.6
9.3
7.4
6.5
9.2
9.9
8.8
9.0 11.6
10.1 10.8 10.3 109 13.2 14.9
9.7 10.2
9.7 10.0 11.2 11.1
7.4
10.5 11.1 10.7 11.2 12.4 12.7 11.6 16.0
10.4 10.9 10.6 10.9 11.8 11.9 10.9 12.7
9.5
11.2 11.7 11.6 12.0 13.0 13.2 12.8 14.7 14.1 18,9
11.6 12.1 12.0 12.5 13.3 13.6 13.4 15.0 14.6 17.2 15.6
11.6 12.0 11.9 12.4 13.1 13.3 13.1 14.2 13.8 15,3 13.5 11,4
2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94
8.8
8.7
8.4
8.8
9.6
9.3
10.0 9.9
9.9
9.9
10.6 10.7
11.0 11.1
11.1 11*1

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Fourth quarter data are final estimates.




Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of
March 3 1 ,1 9 9 5

21

557.8
571.8
579.4
588.8
607.1
619.4
629.3
646.8
669.6
681.6
707.4
723.6
755.6
783.5
805.0

St. Louis

Trade and Current Account Balances
Current Prices
Billions of Dollars

1989

Billions of Dollars

1990

1991

1992

1993

199 4

1995

The goods and services trade balance and the current account are for the current plus 3 previous
quarters until 1993. Since 1993, the goods and services trade balance uses the current plus
previous 11 months.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

U.S. International Transactions
(Millions of Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted)

4-94

3 - 94

2-94

1 -94

4-93

185,549

177,302

170,431

164,737

37,483

35,626

31,868

29,879

3-93

2-93

1 -93

166,279

158,052

160,105

157,241

28,816

28,513

28,801

27,727

Exports
Goods and Services
Income Receipts on U.S. Assets Abroad
Imports
Goods and Services

-212,224 -206,040 -197,068 -189,057 -186,255 -180,310-179,175 -171,663
-44,987

-39,663

-34,687

-30,699

-29,406

-26,498

-28,133

-25,872

Balance on Current Account

-44,758

-40,848

-37,827

-32,238

-30,587

-27,856

-25,602

-19,850

Change in U.S. Assets Abroad

-44,136

-25,849

-7,251

-48,456

-63,622

-35,651

-35,966

-12,659

Income Payments on Foreign Assets in the U.S.

U.S. Official Reserve Assets
U.S. Private Assets

Change in Foreign Assets in the U.S.

2,033

-165

3,537

-59

-673

-544

822

-983

-45,208

-25,414

-11,250

-48,887

-62,628

-34,915

-36,507

-12,164

89,921

80,254

49,309

95,130

90,16271,934

51,829

16,772

Foreign Official Assets

-1,003

19,460

8,925

11,530

23,96219,259

17,492

10,968

Other Foreign Assets

90,924

60,794

40,384

83,600

66,20052,675

34,337

5,804

Note: Negative values indicate dollar outflows from the United States.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

22

Gross Saving as a Percent of GDP
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Total saving equals private saving (personal saving plus business saving) plus government surplus or deficit.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Saving and investment
(Billions of Dollars and Percent of GDP)

Gross Saving

Gross Private Saving
Dollar

Percent (%)

Gross Private
Domestic Investment
Dollar

Percent (%)

U.S. Net
Foreign Investment
Percent (%)

Period

Dollar

1990:1
2
3
4

735.5
765.9
705.5
683.8

13.5
13.8
12.6
12.2

867.4
888.5
825.5
863.1

15.9
16.0
14.8
15.4

828.9
837.8
812.5
756.4

15.2
15.1
14.6
13.5

-80.3
-73.8
-92.1
-67.7

-1.5
-1.3
-1.6
-1.2

1991:1
2
3
4

798.8
744.5
722.1
740.1

14.2
13.0
12.5
12.8

933.2
937.3
917.9
960.7

16.6
16.4
15.9
16.6

732.8
733.1
756.5
756.8

13.0
12.8
13.1
13.1

55.8
17.6
-22.2
-18.8

1.0
0.3
-0.4
-0.3

1992:1
2
3
4

719.1
722.3
731.9
718.5

12.2
12.1
12.1
11.6

979.1
981.2
1005.3
957.5

16.6
16.4
16.6
15.5

747.7
787.9
795.5
822.0

12.7
13.2
13.2
13.3

-26.6
-54.1
-59.9
-85.6

-0.5
-0.9
-1.0
-1.4

1993:1
2
3
4

760.1
775.0
788.9
825.8

12.2
12.3
12.4
12.7

1022.0
986.6
989.9
1011.4

16.4
15.7
15.6
15.6

853.8
869.7
882.2
922.5

13.7
13.8
13.9
14.2

-68.3
-88.9
-98.8
-113.2

-1.1
-1.4
-1.6
-1.7

1994:1
2
3
4

886.2
923.3
922.6
950.3

13.5
13.8
13.6
13.8

1037.3
1041.4
1052.7
1082.7

15.8
15.6
15.5
15.7

966.6
1034.4
1055.1
1075.6

14.7
15.5
15.5
15.6

-116.4
-135.1
-153.6
-167.7

-1.8
-2.0
-2.3
-2.4

Percent (%)

Dollar

Note: Gross Saving equals Gross Private Domestic Investment plus U.S. Net Foreign Investment minus a statistical discrepancy.
U.S. Net Foreign Investment is the excess of U.S. investment abroad over foreign investment in the U.S..




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

23

Corporate Profits After-Tax
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-90 2-90
33.8
-21.7 -54.1
-13.0 -29.8
3.0 -5.6
3.5
1.3 -4.1
2.5 -2.0
0.6
4.3
2.8 -0.5
-1.9 -5.3
4.6
2.1
1.8
4.1
5.8
3.8
5.8
7.6
8.7
7.1
5.0
6.6
6.4
7.8
6.2
7.5
6.9
5.6

■
w
b

2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94

3-90 4-90

7.4
35.4
24.6
15.2
14.1
14.7
11.1
3.7
11.6
10.2
11.8
13.4
14.3
11.4
12.5
11.9
10.9

70.7
34.1
18.0
15.9
16.2
11.7
3.2
12.1
10.5
12.2
14.0
14.9
11.8
12.9
12.2
11.2

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

5.4
-1.9
1.8
5.5
2.6
-5.1
5.6
4.7
7.1
9.5
10.8
7.9
9.3
8.9
8.0

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92

4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93
269.5

1-94 2-94 3-94
221.8
225.8
258.1
261.5
255.6
261.6
272.4
266.6
238.6
283.8
282.8
301.3
323.6
342.4
324.1
344.8
347.4
344.7

*
-8.7
0.1
5.6
2.0
-7.1
5.6
4.6
7.3
9.9
11.4
8.1
9.7
9.1
8.2

9.7
13.6 17.6
5.8 3.9 -8.2
-6.7 -11.5 -23.3
8.7 8.5
5.6
6.4
7.0
3.8
9.9
9.9 8.4
12.5 12.9 12.2
13.9 14.4 14.0
10.0 10.0 9.1
11.5 11.7 11.0
10.8 10.9 10.2
9.6 9.6 8.9
1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92

-35.8
13.3 100.2
8.2 40.5
-1.4
13.0 36.5
12.7
16.8 35.6
19.1
18.2 33.5 20.6
11.2
11.8 22.7
13.7 23.4
13.9
12.2
12.5 20.7
10.8
17.8 10.2
2-92 3-92 4-92

Corporate Profits After-Tax with Capital Consumption and Inventory Valuation Adjustments.
Fourth quarter data are final estimates.

28.8
30.9 33.1
29.0 29.1 25.3
14.6 10.2
0.3 -19.7
17.2 14.4
8.8
1.4 28.1
7.4
2.0 14.9
3.1
14.7 12.1
0.7
5.2
8.6 -0.1 -3.1
12.0 9.4
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 3 1 ,1 9 9 5

Corporate Profits and Net Cash Flow
(Billions of Dollars)

Period

Corporate
Profits(1)

After-Tax
Profits(1)

Dividends

Capital
Consumption

Inventory
Capital
Valuation Consumption
Adjustment
Adjustment

Net
C«

4

382.6
409.3
367.5
362.8

250.6
269.5
221.8
225.8

149.9
154.6
155.7
153.7

360.4
365.0
371.3
376.2

-2.0
8.9
-31.5
-19.5

35.8
31.4
22.8
13.5

463.1
471.0
468.9
467.9

1991: 1
2
3
4

385.4
391.5
389.6
394.7

258.1
261.5
255.6
261.6

158.0
159.4
161.6
160.9

380.7
382.4
384.1
386.1

10.4
12.1
1.4
-0.8

13.7
18.9
22.5
22.4

470.5
472.4
476.7
487.6

1992: 1
2
3
4

412.1
412.6
363.2
432.5

272.4
266.6
238.6
283.8

161.0
166.8
174.4
182.1

388.6
391.3
410.4
396.8

-4.0
-16.6
-7.3
2.1

19.0
15.8
10.9
16.9

504.0
507.9
481.8
496.5

1993: 1
2
3
4

442.5
473.1
493.5
533.9

282.8
301.3
323.6
342.4

188.2
190.7
193.2
194.6

402.3
404.8
413.3
411.1

-11.2
-10.0
3.0
-6.5

21.0
26.5
31.7
38.8

508.0
525.4
540.6
565.5

1994: 1
2
3
4

508.2
546.4
556.0
560.3

324.1
344.8
347.4
344.7

196.3
202.5
207.9
213.9

432.2
425.9
432.6
438.0

-12.3
-14.1
-19.6
-32.1

37.0
37.4
37.5
38.8

572.2
582.3
591.7
600.9

1990: 1
2

3

(1) Profits data includes the Inventory Valuation Adjustment and Capital Consumption Adjustment.
The latter is the excess of depreciation allowances over Capital Consumption.
Net Cash Flow equals After-Tax Corporate Profits less Dividends, less the Inventory Valuation Adjustment, plus Capital Consumption.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis

24

Government Deficit( - ) / Surplus(+ )
Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of Dollars

1989

1990

1991

1992

Billions of Dollars

1993

1994

1995

National income accounts basis
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Federal Government Debt
(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
Seasonally Adjusted End of Month Totals

Period
1990:

March
June
September
December

1991:

March
June
September
December

1992:

March
June
September
December

1993:

March
June
September
December

1994:

March
June
September
December

Gross
Federal Debt

Federal Debt held
by Agencies
and Trusts

Net
Federal Debt

Federal Debt held Federal Debt held
by Federal
by Private
Reserve Banks
Investors

Federal Debt held
by Foreign
Investors

3048.3
3146.3
3246.4
3353.0

734.2
766.9
799.0
820.6

2316.3
2380.4
2448.3
2427.5

223.9
231.1
235.5
251.3

2096.5
2153.8
2217.0
2286.0

420.5
426.0
443.9
456.6

3460.5
3541.4
3680.1
3787.6

880.5
886.3
923.9
958.5

2583.4
2656.6
2757.6
2822.2

253.0
255.0
268.0
272.1

2339.8
2411.3
2500.1
2560.4

463.8
472.7
480.7
488.8

3876.1
3988.9
4081.1
4160.9

978.8
998.6
1021.1
1036.4

2901.1
2992.5
3061.7
3116.5

274.0
277.0
300.1
291.7

2640.9
2727.5
2777.5
2836.6

508.4
529.1
538.4
546.4

4230.6
4356.4
4424.8
4513.1

1060.0
1089.9
1122.3
1139.8

3178.1
3268.6
3304.7
3368.7

313.0
330.0
329.7
330.6

2877.7
2950.2
2995.0
3041.6

562.5
568.3
595.5
619.5

4575.9
4650.5
4706.9
4776.3

1160.3
1192.2
1219.2
1242.1

3423.9
3460.2
3490.2
3529.0

351.4
359.1
359.5
359.4

3076.1
3100.6
3140.4
N.A.

631.5
633.1
658.5
N.A.

Columns may not add because each component is seasonally adjusted separately. Gross federal debt equals debt held by agencies and trusts plus net federal debt.
Net federal debt equals debt held by Federal Reserve banks plus debt held by private investors (which includes debt held by foreign investors).
Sources: Orginal data may be found in the TR EASUR Y BULLETIN and also in the Federal Reserve BULLETIN; seasonally adjusted series prepared by this Bank.

Data have been revised to reflect changed seasonal adjustment factors.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

25

Government Budgets
(Billions of Dollars; National Income Account Basis)

Federal
Period
1990: 1
2
3
4
1991: 1
2
3
4
1992: 1
2
3
4
1993: 1
2
3
4
1994: 1
2
3
4

Federal. State and Local

Receipts

Expenditures

Surplus/
Deficit(-)

1091.3

1257.8

-166.4

1676.1

1808.0

1114.5

-152.0

1705.0

1827.7

1123.7
1115.8

1266.5
1268.3
1306.9

-144.6

1728.7

-191.0

1120.1

1264.5

1121.8

Receipts

Expenditures

Surplus/
Deficit(-)

Grants-in-Aid(l)

-131.9
-122.7

127.7

-119.9

131.9

1726.5

1848.6
1905.8

-179.3

137.6

-144.4

1734.0

1868.4

-134.4

144.3

1329.4

-207.6

1744.7

1937.4

-192.7

151.7

1132.5

1346.0

-213.6

1768.5

1964.2

-195.8

154.7

1140.5

1386.3

-245.8

1788.7

2009.4

-220.7

162.6

1155.7

-279.9
-284.8

1813.5
1836.9

2073.5
2095.8

-260.0

1171.0

1435.6
1455.8

-258.9

164.6
172.8

1166.5

1460.4

-293.9

1837.0

2110.5

-273.5

174.6

1219.9
1212.7

1492.0
1496.2

-272.1

1908.8

2147.9

-239.0

-283.5

1901.0

2162.9

-261.9

176.6
176.7

1263.7

1500.6

-237.0

1965.1

2176.7

-211.7

182.9

1272.7

-224.9

-201.0

187.8

-220.1

1980.9
2035.4

2181.9

1313.6

1497.6
1533.7

2221.0

-185.6

197.0

1337.4

1513.7

-176.2

2066.5

2217.6
2240.1

-151.0
-118.1

190.0
194.4

131.9

1380.7

1525.9

-145.1

2121.9

1388.8

1542.8

-154.0

2138.8

2268.9

-130.1

200.3

1408.8

1569.9

-161.1

2171.1

2303.4

-132.3

205.5

(1) Federal Grants-in-Aid to state and local government are part of federal expenditures and state and local receipts, but are netted out in computing total government measures.

Federal Budgets
Fiscal Years
Estimate
Total Budget
Receipts

1995
$1,354.3

Outlays
Surplus or Deficit(-)

-167.1

1594

1593

1992

1591

1990

$1,257.2

$1,153.2

$1,090.5

$1,054.3

1^460,6

1,408,5

1.380.9

1.323.8

$1,031.3
1,252,7

-203.4

-255.3

-290.4

-269.5

-221.4

1594

1593

1992

1551

1990

$1,379.0

$1,265.7

$1,178.3

$1,128.7

$1,111.4

1.538.1

1.507.0

1.460.9

1.331.6

1.274.9

-159.1

-241.4

-282.7

-202.9

-163.5

National Income Account
Budget
Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or Deficit(-)

Note:

Fiscal years refer to the budget yea r w hich runs from October 1 through Septem b er 30.
Total budget outlays include federal entities that are off-budget.
Estim ates from O M B 's M id-Sessio n Review of the fiscal year 1994 Budget (July 14, 1994).
Totals m ay not add due to rounding.

Source: Office of M a n a g e m e n t and Budget and U .S. D epartm ent of Com m erce.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

26

Federal Government Receipts
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates

Initial Quarter

1-90
8.8
6.0
3.0
2.6
2.2
2.5
2.6
2.9
3.2
2.7
4.1
3.6
4.6
4.5
5.1
5.2
5.7
5.5
5.5

2-90 3-90 4-90
3.3
0.2
0.7
0.7
1.3
1.5
2.1
2.5
2.0
3.7
3.1
4.3
4.2
4.8
5.0
5.5
5.3
5.3

-2.8
-0.6
-0.2
0.8
12
1.9
2.4
19
3.7
3.1
4.4
4.2
4.9
5.1
5.6
5.4
5.5

1.6
1.1
2.0
2.2
2.9
3.3
2.6
4.6
3.8
5.1
4.9
5.6
5.7
6.3
6.0
6.0

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91 3-91

0.6
2.2
2.4
3.2
3.6
2.7
5.0
4.1
5.5
5.2
6.0
6.1
66
6.3
6.3

3.9
3.4
4.0
4.4
3.2
5.7
4.6
6.1
5.8
6.5
6.6
7.2
6.8
6.7

2.9
4.1
4.6
3.0
6.1
4.7
65
6.0
68
6.9
7.5
7.0
6,9

4-91

5.4
5.4
3.1
70
5.0
7.1
6.5
7.3
7.3
7.9
7.4
7.3

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

5.4
1.9
7.5
4.9
74
6.6
7.6
7.6
8.2
7.6
7.5

-1.5
8.5
4.8
7.9
6.9
8.0
7.9
8,6
7.9
7.7

19.6
8.1
11.3
9.1
10.0
9.5
10.1
9.1
8.7

-2.3
7.3
5.8
7.7
7.6
8,6
7.7
7.5

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

17.9
10.1
11.2
10.3
10.9
9.5
8.9

2.9
8.1
7.9
9.3
7.8
7.5

13.5
10.4
11.5
9.1
8.5

7.4
10.5 13.6
7.7
7.8
7.2
7.2

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

Fourth quarter data are final estimates.

1-94 2-94 3-94

2.4
4.1

5.9

1,114.5
1,123.7
1,115.8
1,120.1
1,121.8
1,132.5
1,140.5
1,155.7
1.171.0
1,166.5
1,219.9
1,212.7
1,263.7
1,272.7
1,313.6
1,337.4
1,380.7
1,388.8
1,408.8

1-94 2-94 3-94

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 31, 1995

Federal Government Expenditures
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94

1-90
2.8
1.7
5.2
0.5
4.5
4.6
5.7
6.8
6.7
6.2
6.4
6.0
5.6
5.1
5.4
4.7
4.7
4.6
4.8

2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1-94 2-94 3-94
1,266.5

0.6
6.5
-0.2
5.0
5.0
6.2
7.4
7.2
6.5
68
6.2
5.8
5.3
5.6
4.9
4,8
4.8
4.9 '

1,268.3
12.7
-0.6 -12.4
6.5
3.5 22.2
4.0 13.3
6.1
6.1 13.0
7.4
8.6
7.8 13.5
7.5 11.9
8.2
6.6 10.1
7.3
9.9
6.8
7.5
6.2
8.8
6.8
57
7.9
6.3
5.7
7.0
5.1
7.3
6.0
5.5
5.2
6.2
4.6
5.1
4.5
6.0
5.0
4.5
5.8
4.7
5.1
5.9

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90

1,306.9
1,264.5
1,329.4
5.1
8.7
10.8
9.5
7.8
8.0
7.0
6.2
5.4
5.9
4.8
4.7
4.7
4.9

12.5
13.8
11.0
8.5
8.6
7.3
6.4
5.5
6.0
4.8
4.7
4.7
4.8

15.0
10.3
7.2
7.6
6.3
5.4
4.5
5.2
4.0
3.9
4.0
4.2

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

5.7
3.5
5.3
4.2
3.6
2.9
3.8
2.7
2.7
2.9
3.3

13
5.0
3.7
3.1
2.3
3.5
2.3
2.4
2.6
3 1

8.9
5.0
3.7
2.5
4.0
2.4
2.5
2.8
3.3

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

1.2
0.2
3.4
1.2
1.6
2.1
2.8

-0.8
4.5
1.2
1.7
2.2
3.1

10.0
2.2
2.5
3.0
3.8

-5.1
-1.0
0.8
2.4

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

3.3
3.9
5.0

4.5
5.9

7.2

1-94 2-94 3-94

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
M
arr'h 31, 1
QQ«;
March
1995

Fourth quarter data are final estimates.




1.1
12
0.5
2.8
1.2
1.5
1.9
2.6

1,346.0
1,386.3
1,435.6
1,455.8
1,460.4
1,492.0
1,496.2
1,500.6
1,497.6
1,533.7
1,513.7
1,525.9
1,542.8
1.569.9

27

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