Full text of National Economic Trends : April 1994

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APRIL 1994

N ational
Economic
Trends
Does Excess Nominal
GDP Growth Lead
Inflation?
Long-term inflation is identically equal to excess
nominal GDP growth, that is, the growth rate of nominal
gross domestic product minus the sustainable growth
rate of real output. The sustainable rate of real output
growth is what the rate would be in the absence of the
business cycle and short-run policy effects. Because
of the long-run relation between excess nominal GDP
growth and inflation, some economists have advocated
jominal GDP as a target of monetary policy. Under
uch procedures, monetary policy would become less
accommodative when nominal GDP exceeds the target,
and more accommodative when nominal GDP falls
short of its target. An important question is whether
excess nominal GDP growth indicates subsequent
changes in inflation with sufficient lead time to
allow for monetary policy actions that can moderate
undesirable swings in inflation. In general, we would
expect shifts in nominal GDP to lead inflation, because
such shifts tend to boost real output initially, before
being reflected fully in prices.
The chart plots excess nominal GDP growth and
the next year’s rate of price inflation. The chart suggests
that accelerations and decelerations in excess nominal
GDP growth have in fact preceded major, sustained
accelerations and decelerations in inflation. The best
example is the period between the early 1960s and
late 1970s, when excess nominal GDP growth clearly
accelerated before inflation. In opposite circumstances,
decreases in excess nominal GDP growth from 1979
to 1981 preceded decreases in inflation. A surge in

excess nominal GDP growth from 1984 to 1986 was
absorbed primarily by rapid growth in real output as
the economy recovered from the deep recession of
the early 1980s; high nominal GDP growth was not
sustained long enough to channel into higher inflation.
Finally, between 1989 and 1992, the chart shows that
excess nominal GDP growth diminished in advance of
the decline in the inflation rate.
With respect to the future, the chart shows an upturn
in excess nominal GDP growth by the end of 1993,
though it is too early to tell whether it will be sustained
long enough to be reflected in the price level.
— Michael Dueker

Q

Excess nominal GDP growth is shown as a smoothed, two-year
moving average; it was estimated using methods developed by
Stephen N. Braun in “Estimation of Current-Quarter Gross
National Product by Pooling Preliminary Labor Market Data,”
Journal o f Business and Economic Statistics (July 1990), pp. 293304. The average annual rate of sustainable growth in real output
is estimated to have been 2.8 percent between 1962 and 1993.

Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System.
National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research and Public Information Division. Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing
Research and Public Information, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or by calling 314-444-8809.
Information in this publication is also included in the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board. You can access FRED with a personal
computer and a modem at 314-621-1824.



C onsum er P rice Index - All Urban C onsum ers
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1988

1989

1990

1991

Percent

1992

1993

1994

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Consumer Price Index
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

1982-84=100
6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94
141.0

8-92

3.5

9-92

2.6

1.7

141.2

10-92

3.2

3.0

4.3

11-92

3.2

3.2

3.9

3.4

141.7

12-92

3.1

3.0

3.4

3.0

2.6

1-93

3.0

2.9

3.2

2.9

2.6

2.6

2-93

3.2

3.1

3.4

3.2

3.1

3.4

4.3

3-93

3.1

3.1

3.3

3.1

3.0

3.1

3.4

4-93

3.2

3.2

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.4

3.7

3.4

4.3

5-93

3.2

3.1

3.3

3.2

3.1

3.2

3.4

3.1

3.4

2.5

6-93

3.0

2.9

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.8

2.9

2.5

2.5

1.7

0.8

7-93

2.8

2.8

2.9

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.4

2.3

1.7

1.3

1.7

142.1
142.4
142.7
143.2
2.5

143.5
144.0
144.3
144.4
144.6

8-93

2.9

2.8

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.5

2.5

2.1

2.0

2.5

3.4

9-93

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.3

2.2

1.8

1.7

2.0

2.1

0.8

10-93

2.8

2.8

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.2

2.2

2.5

2.8

2.5

4.2

145.0
145<1
145.6

11-93

2.9

2.8

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.7

2.9

2.8

3.8

3.3

12-93

2.8

2.8

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.8

2.7

3.3

2.9

2.5

1-94

2.7

2.6

2.7

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.1

2.1

2.3

2.4

2.2

2.5

1.9

1.2

0.0

2-94

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.7

2.3

1.9

1.7

3.3

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94




146.0
146.3
146.3

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of
March 16, 1994

2

146.7

Louis

Consumer Price Index - Food
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
TerMinal
Month

Initial Month
7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

8-92

8.1

9-92

6.3

4.4

10-92

4.1

2.2

0.0

11-92

2.9

1.2

-0.4

-0.9

12-92

2.8

1.5

0.6

0.9

2.6

1-93

2.3

1.2

0.4

0.6

1.3

0.0

2-93

2.5

1.6

1.0

1.3

2.0

1.7

3.5

3-93

2.5

1.7

1.3

1.6

2.2

2.0

3.1

2.6

4-93

2.5

1.8

1.5

1.7

2.3

2.2

2.9

2.6

2.6

4-93

5-93

1982-84=100
6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94
138.5
139.0
139.0
138.9
139.2
139.2
139.6
139.9
140.2

5-93

3.1

2.5

2.3

2.6

3.2

3.3

4.2

4.4

5.3

8.0

6-93

2.5

1.9

1.6

1.8

2.2

2.2

2.6

2.4

2.3

2.2

-3.3

7-93

2.3

1.7

1.5

1.6

2.0

1.9

2.2

1.9

1.7

1.4

-1.7

8-93

2.4

1.9

1.7

1.9

2.2

2.2

2.5

2.3

2.2

2.2

0.3

2.2

4.3

9-93

2.5

2.1

1.9

2.0

2.3

2.3

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.4

1.1

2.6

3.9

141.1
140.7
0.0

140.7
141.2
3.5

141.6

10-93

2.7

2.3

2.2

2.4

2.7

2.7

3.0

2.9

3.0

3.0

2.1

3.5

4.6

4.8

6.1

11-93

2.7

2.4

2.2

2.4

2.7

2.7

2.9

2.9

2.9

3.0

2.1

3.3

4.1

4.0

4.3

2.6

12-93

2.9

2.6

2.5

2.6

2.9

2.9

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.3

2.7

3.7

4.5

4.5

4.9

4.3

6.1

1-94

2.6

2.3

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.6

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.1

2.9

3.4

3.3

3.2

2.3

2.1

-1.7

2-94

2.3

2.0

1.9

2.0

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.2

2.2

2.1

1.5

2.1

2.4

2.1

1.9

0.8

0.3

-2.5

-3.3

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

142.3
142.6
143.3
143.1
142.7

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 16, 1994

Consumer Price Index - Energy
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

1982-84=100
6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

8-92

-5.6

9-92

-3.4

10-92

-0.8

1.8

4.8

11-92

1.5

3.9

6.6

8.4

12-92

1.4

3.2

4.7

4.7

1.2

1-93

0.8

2.1

2.9

2.3

-0.6

-2.3

2-93

0.2

1.2

1.6

0.9

-1.5

-2.8

-3.4

3-93

1.3

2.3

2.9

2.6

1.2

1.2

2.9

9.6

4-93

1.3

2.2

2.7

2.3

1.2

1.2

2.3

5.3

1.2

5-93

0.5

1.2

1.5

1.0

-0.2

-0.5

0.0

1.2

-2.8

-6.7

6-93

-0.1

0.5

0.6

0.1

-1.0

-1.3

-1.1

-0.6

-3.8

-6.1

-5.6

7-93

-0.1

0.4

0.6

0.1

-0.9

-1.1

-1.0

-0.5

-2.8

-4.1

-2.8

0.0

8-93

-0.7

-0.3

-0.2

-0.7

-1.7

-2.0

-2.0

-1.7

-3.9

-5.1

-4.5

-4.0

-7.8

9-93

-1.0

-0.6

-0.6

-1.1

-2.0

-2.3

-2.3

-2.1

-4.0

-5.0

-4.5

-4.2

-6.2

-4.6

10-93

0.5

1.0

1.2

0.9

0.2

0.1

0.4

0.9

-0.3

-0.6

0.7

2.3

3.1

9.1

24.6

11-93

-0.1

0.2

0.3

0.0

-0.7

-0.8

-0.7

-0.4

-1.6

-2.0

-1.1

-0.2

-0.3

2.4

6.0

12-93

-0.6

-0.3

-0.2

-0.6

-1.2

-1.4

-1.4

-1.2

-2.3

-2.7

-2.1

-1.5

-1.8

-0.3

1.2

-8.8

-7.8

1-94

-1.1

-0.8

-0.8

-1.2

-1.8

-2.0

-2.0

-1.9

-3.0

-3.4

-3.0

-2.6

-3.1

-2.1

-1.5

-8.9

-8.4

-8.9

2-94

-0.1

0.3

0.3

0.1

-0.5

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-1.0

-1.3

-0.6

0.0

0.0

1.4

2.6

-2.3

0.4

4.8

20.5

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

103.3
-1.2

103.2




103.6
104.3
104.4
104.2
103.9
104.7
104.8
104.2
103.7
103.7
103.0
102.6
104.5
-9.9

103.6
102.9
102.1
103.7

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 16, 1994

3

P roducer P rice Index —F inish ed Goods
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1988

1989

1990

1991

Percent

1992

1993

1994

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Producer Price Index - Finished Goods
(Compounded Ajinual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

1982 = 100
6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94
123.5

8-92

1.0

9-92

1.5

2.0

10-92

2.0

2.5

2.9

11-92

1.2

1.3

1.0

-1.0

12-92

1.0

1.0

0.6

-0.5

0.0

123.7
124.0
123.9
123.9
124.3

1-93

1.5

1.6

1.5

1.0

2.0

3.9

2-93

2.0

2.1

2.1

1.9

2.9

4.4

4.9

124.8
125.1

3-93

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.1

2.9

3.9

3.9

2.9

4-93

2.5

2.7

2.8

2.8

3.5

4.4

4.6

4.4

5.9

5-93

2.2

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.9

3.5

3.4

2.9

2.9

0.0

6-93

1.5

1.6

1.5

1.3

1.7

1.9

1.6

0.7

0.0

-2.8

-5.6

7-93

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.2

1.5

1.7

1.3

0.6

0.0

-1.9

-2.8

0.0

8-93

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.1

0.2

0.2

-0.3

-1.1

-1.9

-3.8

-5.0

-4.7

-9.2

125.7
125.7
125.1
125.1
124.1

9-93

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.0

-0.7

-1.3

-2.7

-3.3

-2.5

-3.8

2.0

10-93

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.2

0.3

0.3

-0.1

-0.7

-1.2

-2.4

-2.8

-2.1

-2.8

0.5

11-93

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

-1.9

-2.2

-1.5

-1.9

0.6

0.0

1.0

12-93

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.1

0.2

0.2

-0.1

-0.6

-1.0

-1.8

-2.0

-1.4

-1.7

0.2

-0.3

0.0

-1.0

1-94

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.2

-0.3

-0.6

-1.3

-1.4

-0.8

-1.0

0.8

0.5

1.0

1.0

2.9

2-94

0.9

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.2

0.0

-0.6

-0.6

0.0

0.0

1.6

1.6

2.2

2.6

4.4

5.9

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94




4

124.3
-1.0

124.2
124.3
124.2
124.5
125.1

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 15, 1994

Civilian E m p loym en t and U n em p lo y m en t Rate
Seasonally Adjusted
Millions of Persons

126

119

-i------1

1988

1989

i-------------------1------r

1990

1991

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
January 1994 figures reflect revised data collection procedures and are not directly comparable with previous data.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Civilian Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

8-92

-0.1

9-92

0.0

0.2

10-92

-0.1

-0.1

-0.5

11-92

0.5

0.8

1.0

2.6

12-92

0.8

1.0

1.3

2.2

1.9

1-93

0.7

0.9

1.0

1.6

1.0

0.2

2-93

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.8

1.6

1.5

2.7

3-93

1.0

1.2

1.3

1.7

1.5

1.4

2.0

1.2

4-93

0.9

1.1

1.2

1.5

1.2

1.1

1.4

0.7

0.2

4-93

5-93

Thousands of
Persons
6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94
117,749

117,772
117,723
117,974
118,155
118,178
118,442
118,562
118,585

5-93

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.6

2.5

3.2

6.2

6-93

1.3

1.5

1.6

1.9

1.8

1.8

2.1

1.9

2.1

3.1

0.1

7-93

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.9

1.8

1.8

2.0

1.9

2.1

2.7

1.0

1.9

8-93

1.5

1.7

1.8

2.0

1.9

2.0

2.2

2.1

2.3

2.8

1.7

2.6

3.3

9-93

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.7

1.6

1.6

1.8

1.6

1.7

2.0

1.0

1.3

1.0

-1.2

10-93

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.9

1.8

1.8

2.0

1.9

2.0

2.3

1.5

1.9

1.9

1.3

3.8

11-93

1.6

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.2

2.1

2.2

2.5

1.9

2.3

2.4

2.2

3.9

4.0

12-93

1.7

1.8

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.6

2.1

2.5

2.6

2.4

3.7

3.7

3.3

1-94

2.4

2.5

2.7

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.2

3.3

3.5

3.8

3.5

4.0

4.4

4.6

6.2

6.9

8.5

13.8

2-94

2.4

2.5

2.7

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.2

3.2

3.4

3.7

3.5

3.9

4.2

4.3

5.5

5.9

6.6

8.2

2.9

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94




119,180
119,187
119,370

.

A

V

119,692
119,568
•'V

119,941
120,332
^S'

120,661
121,971
122,258

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 4, 1994

Payroll E m ploym en t
Seasonally Adjusted

Millions of Persons

1988

1989

1990

1991

Millions of Persons

1992

1993

1994

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Payroll Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

8-92

0.1

9-92

0.4

0.7

10-92

0.7

1.0

1.3

11-92

0.9

1.1

1.4

1.5

12-92

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.6

1.8

1-93

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.6

1.7

1.7

2-93

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.6

3.4

3-93

1.3

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

l.S

1.8

0.3

4-93

1.5

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

1.5

Initial Month
Persons
4-93 5-93

3-93

Thousands of
6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94
108,615
108,674
108,789
108,921
109,079
109,235
109,539
109,565

2.8

109,820

5-93

1.6

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.3

1.9

2.7

2.6

6-93

1.5

1.6

1.8

1.8

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.5

2.0

1.5

0.5

7-93

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.0

2.0

1.8

2.1

1.9

1.5

2.6

8-93

1.4

1.6

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.4

1.6

1.3

0.9

1.1

-0.4

9-93

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.5

1.7

1.5

1.2

1.5

0.9

2.2

10-93

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.5

1.7

1.5

1.3

1.5

1.2

2.0

1.8

11-93

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.6

1.8

1.7

1.5

1.7

1.5

2.1

2.1

2.4

12-93

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.7

1.9

1.8

1.6

1.8

1.7

2.2

2.2

2.4

2.5

1-94

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.6

1.7

1.6

1.4

1.6

1.4

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.2

0.0

2-94

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.6

1.8

1.6

1.5

1.7

1.5

1.9

1.8

1.8

1.6

1.2

2.4

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94




110,058
110,101
110,338
110,305
110,502
110,664
110,880
111,110
111,108
111,325

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 4, 1994

Service-Producing Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Initial Month

Terminal
Month
7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

Thousands of
Persons
85,542

8-92

1.4

9-92

1.5

1.7

10-92

1.6

1.8

1.9

11-92

1.7

1.8

1.9

1.9

12-92

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.4

1-93

1.9

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.0

2-93

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.6

2.6

3.3

3-93

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.1

2.2

4-93

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.8

2.6

4.1

5-93

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.9

2.7

3.5

3.0

6-93

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.4

2.9

2.2

1.5

7-93

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.6

2.9

2.6

2.4

3.2

8-93

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.4

2.0

1.6

1.7

0.2

9-93

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.5

2.2

2.0

2.1

1.6

3.0

10-93

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.4

2.1

1.9

2.0

1.6

2.3

1.6

11-93

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.3

2.1

1.9

2.0

1.7

2.2

1.9

12-93

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.3

2.4

2.2

2.1

2.2

2.0

2.4

2.2

2.6

3.0

1-94

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.1

2.2

2.0

2.1

1.9

1.8

1.8

1.6

1.9

1.6

1.7

1.4

-0.1

2-94

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.1

2.2

2.0

1.9

2.0

1.8

2.1

1.9

2.0

2.0

1.5

3.1

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

85,662
85,794
85,926
86,094
86,234
86,470
1.1

86,549
86,840
87,052
87,160
87,390
87,402
87,616
87,730
2.2

87,886
88,102
88,093
88,320

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 4, 1994

Goods-Producing Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

Initial Month
Persons
4-93 5-93

3-93

Thousands of
6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

8-92

-4.4

9-92

-3.8

-3.1

10-92

-2.8

-2.0

-0.9

11-92

-2.1

-1.3

-0.4

0.0

12-92

-1.8

-1.1

-0.5

-0.3

-0.5

1-93

-1.4

-0.7

-0.1

0.1

0.2

0.8

2-93

-0.7

0.0

0.6

1.0

1.3

2.2

3-93

-0.9

-0.4

0.0

0.2

0.3

0.5

0.4

-2.7

4-93

-1.0

-0.6

-0.2

-0.1

-0.2

-0.1

-0.4

-2.3

-1.9

5-93

-0.8

-0.4

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.1

-1.1

-0.3

1.4

6-93

-1.0

-0.7

-0.4

-0.4

-0.4

-0.4

-0.6

-1.7

-1.3

-1.0

-3.3

7-93

-0.9

-0.6

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

-0.5

-1.3

-0.9

-0.6

-1.5

0.4

8-93

-1.0

-0.7

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.7

-1.4

-1.2

-1.0

-1.8

-1.0

-2.3

9-93

-1.0

-0.7

-0.5

-0.5

-0.6

-0.6

-0.7

-1.4

-1.1

-1.0

-1.6

-1.0

-1.6

-0.9

10-93

-0.8

-0.5

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

-0.4

-0.9

-0.6

-0.4

-0.7

-0.1

-0.2

0.8

11-93

-0.5

-0.3

-0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

-0.4

-0.1

0.1

-0.1

0.6

0.6

1.6

2.9

3.2

12-93

-0.5

-0.2

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.0

-0.3

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.6

0.6

1.4

2.1

2.0

0.7

1-94

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

-0.3

0.0

0.2

0.1

0.6

0.6

1.2

1.7

1.4

0.5

0.4

2-94

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

-0.3

-0.1

0.1

0.0

0.4

0.4

0.9

1.3

0.9

0.2

-0.1

-0.5

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

23,073
23,012




22,995
22,995
22,985
23,001
3.6

23,069
23,016
22,980
23,006
22,941
22,948
22,903
22,886
2.5

22,934
22,994
23,008
23,015
23,005

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 4, 1994

7

Change in th e E m p loym en t Cost Index and Its C om ponents
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1988

1989

1990

Percent

1994

1993

1992

1991

Total compensation is the sum of benefits and wages and salaries for private industry workers.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Employment Cost Index - Total Compensation.
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
1-89

2-89

4.5

3-89

4.7

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

June 1989 = 100
4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93
100.0

4.9

101.2

4-89

4.7

4.9

4.8

1-90

5.0

5.1

5.2

5.6

102.4

2-90

5.0

5.1

5.2

5.3

5.1

3-90

4.9

4.9

4.9

5.0

4.7

4.3

4-90

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.4

4.0

3.8

1-91

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.4

4.2

4.2

4.6

2-91

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.7

4.9

3-91

4.6

4.7

4.6

4.6

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.5

4.5

4.1

4-91

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.3

4.1

103.8
105.1
106.2
107.2
108.4
109.7
110.8
4.0

111.9

1-92

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.2

3.9

3.8

3.6

2-92

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.0

4.1

4.0

3.7

3.6

3.4

3.2

3-92

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.2

3.2

4-92

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.4

3.5

1-93

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.7

3.9

2-93

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.8

3-93

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.4

4-93

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.4

3.4

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

112.9
113.8
114.7
115.7
116.8
117.9
118.9
119.9

Data are for the last aonth of quarter.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
January 25, 1994

In d u strial P rod u ction
Seasonally Adjusted

t

|

i

i

1988

|

i

i

1989

|

i

i

1990

|

r

1991

1992

1994

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Industrial Production
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

1987 = 100

Initial Month
7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94
106.5

8-92

-3.3

9-92

-1.1

1.1

10-92

2.6

5.8

10.6

11-92

4.3

6.9

10.0

9.3

12-92

5.0

7.2

9.3

8.7

1-93

4.5

6.2

7.5

6.5

5.1

2.2

2-93

5.0

6.5

7.6

6.8

6.0

5.1

3-93

4.5

5.7

6.5

5.7

4.8

3.7

4.5

1.1
3.3

5.6

0.4

0.0

-5.3

106.6
107.5
108.3
8.0

109.0
109.2
8.0

109.9
110.0

4-93

4.6

5.7

6.4

5.7

4.9

4.2

4.8

5-93

3.6

4.4

4.8

4.0

3.2

2.2

2.2

6-93

3.7

4.4

4.8

4.1

3.3

2.6

2.7

1.4

1.5

-0.5

4.5

7-93

3.8

4.5

4.9

4.2

3.6

3.0

3.1

2.2

2.5

1.5

5.0

110.5
110.0
110.4
5.6

110.9

8-93

3.7

4.3

4.6

4.0

3.5

2.9

3.0

2.2

2.4

1.6

4.1

3.9

2.2

9-93

3.6

4.2

4.4

3.9

3.3

2.8

2.9

2.2

2.4

1.7

3.6

3.3

2.2

2.2

10-93

3.8

4.3

4.6

4.1

3.6

3.2

3.3

2.7

3.0

2.5

4.2

4.1

3.7

4.4

11-93

4.2

4.7

5.0

4.5

4.2

3.8

4.0

3.5

3.8

3.6

5.2

5.3

5.2

6.3

8.4

10.1

12-93

4.7

5.2

5.5

5.2

4.8

4.6

4.8

4.5

4.9

4.8

6.3

6.6

6.8

8.0

10.1

11.8

13.5

1-94

4.8

5.3

5.6

5.2

5.0

4.7

4.9

4.7

5.0

5.0

6.3

6.6

6.8

7.7

9.2

10.0

10.0

6.5

2-94

4.8

5.3

5.6

5.3

5.0

4.8

5.0

4.7

5.1

5.0

6.2

6.5

6.6

7.3

8.4

8.8

8.4

5.9

5.4

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94




111.1
111.3
111.9

6.7

112.8
114.0
114.6
115.1

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 15, 1994

P erson al In com e in 1987 Dollars
Seasonally Adjusted

Trillions of Dollars

1988

1989

1990

1991

Trillions of Dollars

1992

1993

1994

The personal consumption expenditures deflator is used to calculate real personal income
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Disposable Personal Income in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

Initial Month
Annual Rates
4-93 5-93 6-93

3-93

8-92

5.1

9-92

3.3

1.5

10-92

6.0

6.5

11.8

11-92

3.7

3.2

4.0

-3.2

12-92

14.9

17.5

23.4

29.7

73.7

1-93

1.0

0.2

-0.2

-3.9

-4.2 -47.2

2-93

1.1

0.4

0.2

-2.5

-2.2 -26.6

1.9

3-93

2.0

1.5

1.5

-0.4

0.3 -16.5

5.0

8.2

4-93

3.0

2.7

2.9

1.5

2.5 -10.2

7.2

9.9

11.7

5-93

2.8

2.6

2.7

1.4

2.2

-8.0

5.6

6.9

6.3

1.1

6-93

2.4

2.1

2.1

1.0

1.6

-7.1

4.0

4.6

3.4

-0.5

-2.1

7-93

1.8

1.5

1.5

0.4

0.9

-6.6

2.7

2.8

1.5

-1.7

-3.1

Billions of Dollars
7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94
3,628.4
3,632.8
3,666.8
3,656.9
3,829.1

3,630.7
3,636.5
3,660.4
3,694.2
3,697.7
3,691.2
-4.1

3,678.5

8-93

2.8

2.6

2.7

1.8

2.4

-4.2

4.3

4.7

4.0

2.2

2.6

5.0

14.9

9-93

2.7

2.5

2.6

1.8

2.3

-3.6

4.0

4.3

3.6

2.1

2.3

3.9

8.1

10-93

2.8

2.6

2.7

2.0

2.5

-2.8

4.0

4.3

3.8

2.5

2.8

4.0

6.9

3.1

4.6

11-93

2.9

2.8

2.9

2.2

2.7

-2.1

4.1

4.4

3.9

2.9

3.2

4.2

6.4

3.7

4.8

5.0

12-93

3.2

3.1

3.2

2.6

3.1

-1.3

4.4

4.7

4.3

3.4

3.8

4.8

6.6

4.6

5.7

6.2

7.5

1-94

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.0

2.3

-1.8

3.5

3.6

3.2

2.3

2.4

3.0

4.3

2.3

2.4

1.7

0.1

-6.7

2-94

3.2

3.1

3.1

2.6

3.0

-0.7

4.2

4.4

4.0

3.3

3.6

4.3

5.5

4.0

4.5

4.5

4.4

2.9

13.4

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94




3,721.3
1.6

3,726.3
3,740.2
3,755.5
3,778.1
3,756.4
3,795.9

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
April 1, 1994

10

R etail Sales
Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

200

200

180

n----- 1— i— p— i----- ]-----r

1988

1989

1990

1994

1991

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
The CPI is used to deflate retail sales data.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Retail Sales in 1982-84 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

6.1

9-92

6.6

7.1

10-92

10.1

12.1

17.3

11-92

7.0

7.3

7.4

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

116,220
117,773
-1.6

117,616
118,673

12-92

7.9

8.3

8.7

4.7

11.3

1-93

6.8

6.9

6.8

3.5

6.2

4.2

1-93

115,554

8-92

2-93

Millions of
Dollars

Initial Month

Terminal
Month

3.8

3.2

0.0

118,801

1.3

117,754

0.5

-4.6 -10.1

-2.0

-6.1

-9.6

-9.1

-1.5

3.1

17.0

116,817

3-93

2.4

1.9

4-93

3.9

3.7

3.2

1.0

1.5

-0.8

5-93

4.1

3.9

3.5

1.7

2.2

0.5

0.3

4.0

11.3

5.9

6-93

4.1

3.9

3.6

2.0

2.5

1.1

1.0

4.0

8.8

4.9

3.9

7-93

4.1

4.0

3.6

2.2

2.7

1.5

1.6

4.1

7.7

4.7

4.2

4.4

8-93

4.2

4.0

3.8

2.5

3.0

2.0

2.1

4.2

7.1

4.8

4.5

4.7

5.0

9-93

3.9

3.7

3.4

2.3

2.7

1.7

1.8

3.6

5.9

3.8

3.3

3.1

2.4

-0.1

10-93

5.0

4.9

4.7

3.7

4.2

3.5

3.8

5.7

8.0

6.5

6.7

7.4

8.3

10.0

21.3

11-93

4.9

4.9

4.7

3.8

4.2

3.6

3.9

5.5

7.5

6.2

6.3

6.8

7.4

8.1

12.5

4.5

12-93

5.3

5.2

5.1

4.3

4.7

4.2

4.5

6.1

7.9

6.8

7.0

7.5

8.1

8.9

12.0

7.7

1-94

4.0

3.8

3.6

2.8

3.1

2.5

2.6

3.8

5.2

4.0

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.3

4.2

-0.9

2-94

4.6

4.5

4.3

3.6

3.9

3.4

3.6

4.8

6.2

5.2

5.1

5.2

5.3

5.4

6.5

3.1

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

1.0

-1.9

118,353
118,920
119,303
119,734
120,226
120,212
122,158
122,604
123,679

11.0

121,872

-3.5 -16.2
-1.3

16.3

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2.7

123,414

Retail sales data deflated by CPI-U C1982-84=100D. Revised fro» 1987.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 11, 1994

11

In ven tories Com pared With M onthly Sales
Manufacturing and Trade
Seasonally Adjusted

Ratio

i

1—

—

1—

1988

t—

1—

—

1989

1—

—

—

1990

1—

t—

Ratio

r

1991

1993

1992

1994

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Manufacturing and Trade Inventories
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Millions of
Dollars

Initial Month
6-92

7-92

8-92

7-92

5.1

8-92

3.6

2.2

9-92

2.0

0.4

-1.3

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

843,411
844,942
844,032

10-92

1.9

0.8

0.2

1.7

11-92

2.0

1.3

0.9

2.1

2.5

845,196

12-92

2.3

1.7

1.6

2.6

3.1

846,912
3.7

849,486

1-93

2.5

2.0

2.0

2.9

3.2

3.6

3.6

2-93

2.7

2.3

2.3

3.1

3.4

3.7

3.8

3.9

3-93

3.1

2.8

2.9

3.6

4.0

4.4

4.6

5.1

6.3

4-93

3.2

3.0

3.1

3.8

4.1

4.5

4.7

5.0

5.6

4.8

5-93

3.2

3.0

3.1

3.6

3.9

4.1

4.2

4.4

4.5

3.6

2.4

6-93

2.9

2.7

2.7

3.2

3.4

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.4

2.4

1.2

0.0

7-93

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.8

2.9

3.0

2.9

2.7

2.5

1.6

0.5

-0.4

-0.9

8-93

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.8

3.0

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.6

1.9

1.2

0.8

1.2

3.3

9-93

2.6

2.4

2.5

2.8

2.9

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.6

1.9

1.4

1.1

1.5

2.7

2.0

10-93

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.8

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.8

2.6

2.1

1.7

1.5

1.9

2.9

2.6

3.2

851,977
854,715
859,094
862,478
864,198
864,227
863,612
865,939
867,395
869,709

11-93

2.9

2.8

2.8

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.2

3.2

3.1

2.7

2.4

2.4

2.9

3.8

4.0

5.1

6.9

12-93

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.2

1.8

1.8

2.1

2.6

2.5

2.6

2.3

-2.0

1-94

2.5

2.3

2.3

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.3

1.9

1.6

1.5

1.7

2.2

1.9

1.9

1.5

-1.1

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93




874,553
873,065
-0.2

872,899

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 14, 1994

12

Gross D om estic P roduct
Seasonally Adjusted

Trillions of Dollars

Trillions of Dollars

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.

Gross Domestic Product in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92

1-91

2-89

1.8

3-89

0.9

0.0

4-89

1.1

0.7

1.5

1-90

1.7

1.6

2.5

3.5

2-90

1.6

1.6

2.2

2.5

1.5

3-90

1.2

1.1

1.4

1.4

0.3

-0.9

4-90

0.6

0.4

0.5

0.2

-0.8

-2.0

-3.2

1-91

0.2

0.0

0.0

-0.3

-1.2

-2.1

-2.8

-2.4

2-91

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.0

-0.7

-1.3

-1.4

-0.5

1.5

Billions of Dollars
2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93
4,839.0
4,839.0
4,856.7
4,898.3
4,917.1
4,906.5
4,867.2
4,837.8
4,855.6

3-91

0.5

0.3

0.3

0.2

-0.4

-0.7

-0.7

0.1

1.4

1.4

4-91

0.5

0.3

0.4

0.2

-0.2

-0.5

-0.4

0.3

1.2

1.0

0.6

4,872.6
4,879.6

1-92

0.7

0.6

0.7

0.6

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.9

1.7

1.8

2.0

3.5

2-92

0.9

0.8

0.9

0.8

0.5

0.4

0.6

1.2

2.0

2.1

2.3

3.2

2.8

3-92

1.1

1.0

1.1

1.0

0.8

0.7

0.9

1.5

2.2

2.3

2.6

3.3

3.1

3.4

4-92

1.4

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.2

1.2

1.5

2.0

2.7

2.9

3.2

3.9

4.0

4.6

5.7

1-93

1.3

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.2

1.2

1.4

1.9

2.5

2.6

2.8

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.2

0.8

2-93

1.4

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.4

1.9

2.4

2.5

2.7

3.0

2.9

2.9

2.8

1.3

1.9

3-93

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.6

2.0

2.4

2.5

2.7

3.0

2.9

2.9

2.8

1.8

2.4

2.9

4-93

1.7

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.8

2.0

2.4

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.6

3.1

3.9

4.9

7.0

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4,922.0
4,956.5
4,998.2
5,068.3
5,078.2
5,102.1
5,138.3
5,225.6

Fourth quarter data are final estinates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 31, 1994

13

Im p licit Price D eflator for GDP
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Implicit Price Deflator
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terninal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
1-89

2-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

1987 = 100
4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93
108.1

4.6

109.1

3-89

4.2

3.8

4-89

4.0

3.7

3.7
5.2

110.1
111.5

1-90

4.3

4.2

4.4

2-90

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.8

4.4

3-90

4.3

4.2

4.3

4.5

4.2

4.0

4-90

4.3

4.2

4.3

4.5

4.2

4.1

4.3

1-91

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.6

4.4

4.4

4.6

5.0

2-91

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.0

3.1

3-91

4.1

4.0

4.1

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.7

3.1

3.1

4-91

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.4

2.9

2.7

2.4

1-92

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.8

2-92

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.4

3.0

3-92

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.0

2.7

2.7

2.5

2.6

2.0

1.0

4-92

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.1

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.5

2.2

3.3

1-93

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.3

3.1

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.8

2.7

3.5

3.6

2-93

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.3

3.2

3.2

3.1

2.9

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.6

3.1

3.0

2.3

3-93

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.1

3.0

2.9

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.7

2.5

2.4

2.7

2.5

2.0

1.6

4-93

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.2

3.1

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.3

2.2

2.4

2.2

1.7

1.5

1.3

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

112.7
113.8
115.0
116.4
117.3
118.2
118.9
120.0
120.9
121.2
122.2
123.3
124.0
124.5
124.9

Fourth quarter data are final estiiiates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 31, 1994

14

Final Sales in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-89

2-89

2-89

2.2

3-89

2.0

1.8

4-89

1.6

1.2

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92

1-91

Billions of Dollars
2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93
4,802.0
4,823.0

0.7

4,831.8

1-90

2.5

2.6

2.9

5.2

2-90

1.9

1.8

1.8

2.4

-0.4

3-90

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.8

0.1

0.5

4-90

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.2

-0.2

0.0

1-91

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.4

-0.8

-0.9

-1.6

-2.7

2-91

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

-0.3

-0.2

-0.5

-0.4

3-91

0.8

0.7

0.5

0.5

-0.3

-0.3

-0.5

-0.4

0.8

-0.4

4-91

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

-0.2

-0.2

-0.4

-0.3

0.5

-0.2

-0.1

1-92

1.0

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.6

1.5

1.3

2.2

4.5

2-92

1.1

1.0

0.9

0.9

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.8

1.5

1.3

1.9

2.9

3-92

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.2

0.8

0.9

0.9

1.2

1.8

1.8

2.4

3.2

2.5

3.7

4-92

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.2

1.4

1.5

1.7

2.4

2.5

3.0

3.8

3.6

4.7

1-93

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.4

1.0

1.2

1.2

1.4

2.0

2.0

2.4

2.9

2.5

2.8

2.4

-0.8

2-93

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.6

2.1

2.1

2.5

2.9

2.6

2.9

2.7

1.2

3-93

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.8

2.2

2.3

2.6

3.0

2.8

3.0

2.9

1.9

3.3

3.4

4-93

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.7

1.9

2.0

2.2

2.6

2.7

3.1

3.5

3.3

3.7

3.6

3.1

4.5

5.1

6.8

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4,893.6
4,889.0
4,895.6
4,888.0

-0.6

4,855.2
4,878.0

1.9

4,873.5
4,872.5
4,926.9
1.4

4,943.8
4,988.6
5.8

5,059.6
5,048.9
3.2

5,089.1
5,131.8
5,217.1

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 31, 1994

Personal Consumption Expenditures in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

2-89

1.1

3-89

2.0

4-89

1.6

1.9

0.8

1-90

1.9

2.2

1.8

2.8

2-90

1.7

1.8

1.5

1.8

0.9

3-90

1.8

1.9

1.6

1.9

1.5

4-90

1.1

1.1

0.8

0.7

0.1

-0.3

-2.7

1-91

0.6

0.5

0.2

0.0

-0.7

-1.2

-2.8

-2.8

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92

1-91

Billions of Dollars
2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93
3,212.2

2.9

3,235.3
3,242.0
3,264.4
3,271.6
2.1

3,288.4
3,265.9
3,242.7

2-91

0.7

0.7

0.4

0.3

-0.2

-0.4

-1.3

-0.6

1.8

3-91

0.8

0.8

0.5

0.4

0.1

-0.1

-0.6

0.0

1.5

1.3

4-91

0.7

0.7

0.4

0.4

0.1

-0.1

-0.5

0.0

1.0

0.7

0.0

1-92

1.0

1.0

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.5

0.3

0.9

1.8

1.9

2.2

4.3

2-92

1.1

1.1

0.9

0.9

0.7

0.7

0.5

1.0

1.8

1.8

2.0

3.0

1.8

3-92

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.2

1.1

1.1

0.9

1.5

2.2

2.3

2.6

3.4

3.0

3,256.9
3,267.1
3,267.5
3,302.3
3,316.8
4.2

3,350.9

4-92

1.6

1.6

1.5

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.5

2.0

2.7

2.9

3.2

4.0

3.8

4.9

5.6

1-93

1.5

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.4

1.9

2.5

2.6

2.8

3.3

3.1

3.5

3.2

0.8

2-93

1.6

1.7

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

2.0

2.6

2.7

2.9

3.3

3.1

3.5

3.3

2.1

3.4

3-93

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

2.2

2.7

2.9

3.1

3.5

3.3

3.7

3.5

2.9

3.9

4.4

4-93

1.9

2.0

1.9

2.0

1.9

2.0

2.0

2.4

2.9

3.0

3.2

3.6

3.5

3.8

3.7

3.2

4.1

4.4

4.4

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

3,397.2
3,403.8
3,432.7
3,469.6
3,506.9

Fourth quarter data are final estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 31, 1994

15

Residential Fixed Investment in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Initial Quarter

Terninal
Quarter
1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
3-93

2-93

2-89

-11.7

3-89

-9.7

-7.6

4-89

-8.4

-6.8

-5.9

1-90

-4.8

-2.3

0.4

2-90

-7.6

-6.6

-6.3

3-90

-10.2

-9.9 -10.5 -12.0 -20.2 -22.1

189.0

4-90

-12.4 -12.5 -13.5 -15.2 -21.6 -23.2 -24.3

176.3

1-91

-14.1 -14.5 -15.6 -17.4 -22.6 -24.0 -24.9 -25.5

2-91

-12.6 -12.7 -13.4 -14.5 -18.3 -18.3 -17.0 -13.1

1.2

215.4
211.2
208.0
7.1

211.6

-6.4 -18.3

201.2

163.8
164.3

3-91

-9.9

-9.8 -10.0 -10.6 -13.2 -12.2

-9.5

-4.0

9.0

17.3

4-91

-7.5

-7.1

-7.1

-7.2

-9.1

-7.5

-4.2

1.6

12.6

18.8

20.3

1-92

-5.7

-5.2

-4.9

-4.8

-6.2

-4.3

-1.0

4.5

13.7

18.2

18.6

16.8

2-92

-3.8

-3.2

-2.8

-2.4

-3.4

-1.4

2.0

7.2

15.3

19.1

19.6

19.3

21.8

3-92

-3.5

-2.8

-2.4

-2.1

-3.0

-1.1

1.9

6.3

12.8

15.3

14.7

12.9

11.0

1.2

4-92

-1.4

-0.6

-0.1

0.4

-0.2

1.8

4.9

9.3

15.4

18.0

18.1

17.6

17.8

15.9

32.8

1-93

-1.2

-0.5

0.0

0.5

0.0

1.8

4.6

8.4

13.6

15.5

15.2

14.2

13.5

10.9

16.1

1.5

2-93

-1.7

-1.1

-0.6

-0.2

-0.8

0.8

3.2

6.5

10.8

12.0

11.3

9.8

8.5

5.4

6.9

-4.1

3-93

-1.0

-0.4

0.1

0.5

0.1

1.6

3.9

7.0

10.9

12.0

11.4

10.1

9.1

6.7

8.1

1.0

0.7

11.9

4-93

0.5

1.2

1.7

2.2

1.9

3.5

5.8

8.8

12.6

13.8

13.5

12.6

12.0

10.5

12.5

7.9

10.1

21.4

31.7

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

171.0
179.1
186.2
195.6
196.2
210.6
211.4
-9.5

206.2
212.1
227.2

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 31, 1994

Nonresidential Fixed Investment in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92

1-91

Billions of Dollars
2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93
542.2

2-89

2.0

3-89

0.9

-0.3

4-89

-0.7

-2.0

-3.7

1-90

2.0

2.0

3.1

10.4

2-90

0.7

0.4

0.7

2.9

3-90

1.4

1.3

1.7

3.6

0.4

5.0

4-90

0.1

-0.2

-0.2

0.7

-2.4

-1.6

1-91

-1.7

-2.2

-2.5

-2.3

-5.2

-5.6 -10.5 -13.2

2-91

-1.8

-2.3

-2.6

-2.4

-4.7

-4.9

-8.0

-8.1

-2.7

3-91

-2.0

-2.4

-2.7

-2.6

-4.6

-4.7

-7.0

-6.7

-3.3

-3.8

4-91

-2.3

-2.7

-3.0

-2.9

-4.7

-4.8

-6.6

-6.3

-3.9

-4.5

-5.1

1-92

-1.8

-2.2

-2.4

-2.2

-3.7

-3.6

-5.0

-4.4

-2.1

-1.9

-0.9

3.5

2-92

-0.6

-0.8

-0.9

-0.6

-1.7

-1.5

-2.3

-1.4

1.1

2.1

4.2

9.2

15.1

541.8
536.7
550.2
544.5

-4.1

551.2
540.2

-7.7

521.4
517.8
512.8
506.1
510.5
528.8
533.8

3-92

-0.3

-0.5

-0.5

-0.2

-1.2

-0.9

-1.6

-0.7

1.6

2.5

4.1

7.4

9.3

3.8

4-92

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.4

-0.4

-0.1

-0.6

0.3

2.4

3.3

4.8

7.4

8.8

5.7

7.6

1-93

1.0

1.0

1.1

1.4

0.7

1.2

0.8

1.8

3.8

4.8

6.3

8.8

10.1

8.5

11.0

14.4

2-93

1.9

1.9

2.0

2.5

1.9

2.4

2.1

3.2

5.2

6.2

7.7

10.1

11.4

10.5

12.8

15.5

16.6

3-93

2.2

2.2

2.4

2.8

2.3

2.8

2.6

3.6

5.4

6.4

7.7

9.7

10.7

9.9

11.4

12.7

11.9

7.4

4-93

3.2

3.2

3.4

3.9

3.5

4.1

4.0

5.0

6.9

7.9

9.2

11.2

12.3

11.9

13.6

15.1

15.3

14.7

22.5

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

543.7
562.3
584.3
594.8
625.7

Fourth quarter data are final estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 31, 1994

16

Exports in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92

1-91

Billions of Dollars
2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93
472.0

2-89

16.3

3-89

8.3

0.8

4-89

9.9

6.8

1-90

10.4

8.5

12.6

12.1

2-90

9.8

8.3

10.9

9.8

472.9
13.1

487.7
501.8
7.6

511.1

3-90

7.8

6.2

7.5

5.8

2.7

-1.9

4-90

8.0

6.7

8.0

6.7

5.0

3.7

9.6

1-91

6.9

5.6

6.5

5.2

3.5

2.2

4.3

-0.8

2-91

8.2

7.2

8.2

7.4

6.5

6.2

9.1

8.8

19.4

3-91

7.7

6.8

7.5

6.8

5.9

5.6

7.5

6.8

10.9

508.6
520.4
519.4
542.9
3.0

546.9

4-91

8.2

7.4

8.2

7.6

6.9

6.8

8.7

8.4

11.7

8.0

13.3

1-92

7.9

7.2

7.8

7.3

6.7

6.5

8.0

7.7

9.9

7.0

9.0

4.9

2-92

7.2

6.5

7.0

6.5

5.8

5.6

6.8

6.3

7.8

5.0

5.7

2.1

-0.6

3-92

7.2

6.5

7.0

6.5

5.9

5.7

6.7

6.3

7.5

5.3

5.9

3.6

2.9

6.5

4-92

7.3

6.7

7.1

6.6

6.2

6.0

6.9

6.6

7.7

5.9

6.5

4.9

4.8

7.6

8.8

1-93

6.6

6.0

6.4

5.9

5.4

5.2

6.0

5.6

6.4

4.7

4.9

3.4

3.0

4.2

3.0

564.2
571.0
570.2
579.3
591.6
-2.4

588.0

2-93

6.5

5.9

6.2

5.8

5.3

5.1

5.8

5.4

6.1

4.5

4.8

3.4

3.1

4.0

3.2

0.5

3.6

3-93

6.0

5.5

5.8

5.3

4.8

4.6

5.2

4.8

5.4

3.9

4.0

2.8

2.4

3.0

2.2

0.1

1.3

-0.9

593.2

4-93

6.8

6.2

6.6

6.2

5.8

5.7

6.3

6.0

6.6

5.5

5.7

4.8

4.8

5.7

5.6

4.8

7.3

9.2

20.4

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

591.9
620.0

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Harch 31, 1994

Imports in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terainal
Quarter
1-89
2-89

5.8

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92

1-91

Billions of Dollars
2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

541.9

3-89

6.2

6.5

4-89

5.2

4.9

3.3

550.5

1-90

5.3

5.1

4.4

5.6

2-90

5.3

5.2

4.8

5.5

3-90

4.5

4.2

3.7

3.8

2.9

0.5

4-90

2.4

1.9

1.0

0.4

-1.3

-4.4

555.0
562.6
5.4

570.0
570.7
557.2

-9.1

1-91

0.6

-0.1

-1.2

-2.0

-3.8

-6.7 -10.1 -11.1

2-91

1.8

1.3

0.6

0.1

-0.9

-2.4

-3.4

-0.4

11.7

3-91

2.8

2.4

1.9

1.7

1.1

0.3

0.2

3.5

11.7

11.8

4-91

3.1

2.8

2.4

2.3

1.8

1.2

1.4

4.2

9.9

9.0

6.3

541.0
556.2
571.9
580.7

1-92

3.1

2.9

2.5

2.5

2.1

1.6

1.8

4.1

8.4

7.3

5.1

3.8

2-92

4.1

3.9

3.7

3.7

3.5

3.3

3.7

6.0

9.8

9.3

8.6

9.7

15.9

586.2
608.2

3-92

4.4

4.3

4.1

4.2

4.1

3.9

4.4

6.5

9.7

9.3

8.7

9.5

12.5

9.2

4-92

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.5

6.4

9.1

8.7

8.1

8.5

10.2

7.4

5.6

1-93

4.9

4.9

4.8

4.9

4.8

4.8

5.2

6.9

9.4

9.1

8.7

9.2

10.5

8.8

8.6

11.6

2-93

5.4

5.4

5.3

5.5

5.4

5.5

5.9

7.5

9.9

9.6

9.3

9.8

11.1

9.9

10.1

12.5

13.3

3-93

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.9

7.4

9.5

9.2

8.9

9.3

10.2

9.1

9.1

10.3

9.6

6.0

4-93

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.1

6.2

6.2

6.7

8.1

10.1

9.9

9.7

10.1

11.1

10.3

10.5

11.8

11.8

11.1

16.4

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

621.8
630.3
647.9
668.4
678.2
704.5

Fourth quarter data are final estimates.




17

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Harch 31, 1994

Government Purchases of Goods and Services in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

2-89

5.3

3-89

4.9

4.5

4-89

3.3

2.3

0.2

1-90

4.2

3.8

3.5

7.0

2-90

3.6

3.1

2.7

4.0

1.1

3-90

2.9

2.4

1.9

2.4

0.2

-0.6

4-90

3.3

2.9

2.6

3.3

2.1

2.6

5.8

1-91

3.2

2.9

2.7

3.2

2.2

2.6

4.3

2.8

2-91

3.0

2.7

2.5

2.9

2.1

2.3

3.3

2.1

1.4

3-91

2.5

2.2

1.9

2.2

1.4

1.5

2.0

0.7

-0.3

-2.0

4-91

1.8

1.5

1.2

1.3

0.5

0.4

0.6

-0.7

-1.8

-3.4

-4.7

1-92

1.9

1.6

1.3

1.5

0.8

0.8

1.0

0.1

-0.6

-1.3

-0.9

3.0

2-92

1.7

1.4

1.1

1.2

0.6

0.5

0.7

-0.1

-0.7

-1.2

-1.0

1.0

-1.0

3-92

1.9

1.6

1.4

1.5

0.9

0.9

1.1

0.5

0.1

-0.2

0.3

2.0

1.5

4-92

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.2

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.2

-0.1

-0.4

-0.1

1.1

0.5

1.3

-1.4

1-93

1.1

0.8

0.6

0.6

0.1

0.0

0.1

-0.5

-0.9

-1.3

-1.2

-0.4

-1.3

-1.3

-3.9

-6.4

2-93

1.3

1.1

0.8

0.9

0.4

0.4

0.5

-0.1

-0.4

-0.6

-0.4

0.3

-0.2

0.0

-1.3

-1.2

1-93

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
3-93

2-93

902.3
912.2
912.6
928.1
930.6
929.2
942.4
948.9
952.3
947.6
936.2
943.1
940.7
4.1

950.2
946.9
931.3
4.3

941.1

3-93

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.8

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.0

-0.3

-0.5

-0.3

0.3

-0.1

0.1

-0.9

-0.7

2.2

0.3

4-93

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.8

0.4

0.3

0.4

0.0

-0.3

-0.4

-0.3

0.3

-0.1

0.1

-0.7

-0.5

1.5

0.1

0.0

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

941.7
941.7

Fourth quarter data are final estimates.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 31, 1994

Corporate Profits
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-89
2-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
2-91 3-91 4-91

1-91

Billions of Dollars
1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93
369.9

0.5

3-89

-6.4 -12.9

4-89

-5.3

-8.2

-3.1

1-90

3.6

4.6

14.7

35.7

2-90

8.6

10.7

19.9

33.3

3-90

-0.3

-0.5

2.9

4.9

-7.7 -35.0

4-90

-1.0

-1.3

1.2

2.3

-6.8 -21.4

-5.0

1-91

0.0

-0.1

2.2

3.3

-3.5 -12.8

1.0

7.4

2-91

0.2

0.1

2.1

3.0

-2.5

-9.4

1.2

4.5

3-91

-1.1

-1.3

0.2

0.7

-4.2 -10.0

-2.3

-1.4

4-91

0.9

1.0

2.6

3.4

-0.6

-5.0

2.5

4.4

3.4

4.4

24.0

1-92

3.5

3.8

5.6

6.7

3.5

0.1

7.6

10.3

11.0

14.3

30.4

37.1

2-92

3.4

3.6

5.3

6.2

3.3

0.3

6.7

8.8

9.1

11.0

20.0

18.1

3-92

-0.1

-0.2

0.9

1.3

-1.6

-4.7

0.0

0.7

-0.3

-0.7

2.4

4-92

4.7

5.0

6.6

7.4

5.2

2.9

8.3

10.1

10.5

12.0

17.6

16.0

9.7

1-93

4.0

4.2

5.6

6.3

4.1

2.0

6.7

8.1

8.2

9.1

13.2

11.1

5.4

6.7

38.2

-6.6

2-93

5.2

5.5

6.9

7.6

5.7

3.8

8.3

9.8

10.1

11.2

14.9

13.5

9.3

11.3

34.2

8.6

26.3

3-93

5.4

5.7

7.0

7.7

6.0

4.2

8.4

9.7

10.0

11.0

14.2

12.9

9.3

10.9

27.5

8.9

17.6

9.4

4-93

7.0

7.4

8.8

9.5

8.0

6.5

10.6

12.1

12.5

13.6

16.9

16.1

13.4

15.4

30.1

16.2

24.9

24.2

41.0

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

357.3
354.5
382.6
409.3

31.0

367.5
362.8
369.3
370.8

1.6

359.0

-5.5 -12.1

378.8
409.9
411.7

1.8

367.5

-4.0 -19.6 -36.5

439.5

14.0 104.6

432.1
458.1
468.5
510.5

Corporate profits with capital consumption and inventory valuation adjustments. Fourth quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 31, 1994

18

Gross Saving as a P ercen t of GDP
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Total saving equals private saving (personal saving plus business saving) plus government surplus or deficit.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Private Saving
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terainal
Quarter
1-89
2-89

-7.4

3-89

-3.7

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92

1-91

Billions of Dollars
2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

811.0
811.2

0.1

828.6

4-89

0.3

4.4

1-90

4.9

9.4

8.9
14.3

20.1

2-90

5.9

9.6

12.9

15.0

10.1

1.4

1.8

-0.5

-9.4 -25.5

3-90

-0.1

4-90

2.5

4.2

5.1

1-91

5.5

7.4

8.7

2-91

5.6

7.4

3-91

3.8

4-91

867.4
888.5
825.5

4.2

-0.7

-5.6

19.5

8.7

6.0

4.7

24.0

863.1
28.8

8.5

8.4

6.2

5.2

18.1

17.4

5.1

5.7

5.3

3.0

1.6

9.8

6.8

5.5

6.9

7.7

7.6

5.9

5.2

12.7

11.1

5.7

5.1

25.0

1-92

5.6

6.9

7.6

7.5

6.0

5.4

11.7

10.2

5.9

5.6

15.4

6.6

2-92

5.6

6.8

7.4

7.3

5.9

5.4

10.8

9.4

5.9

5.6

12.1

6.1

5.7

3-92

6.1

7.2

7.8

7.7

6.6

6.2

11.0

9.8

6.9

6.9

12.1

8.1

8.9

4-92

4.3

5.2

5.6

5.4

4.1

3.5

7.4

6.0

3.1

2.4

5.5

1.1

-0.6

1-93

5.5

6.4

6.9

6.8

5.7

5.3

9.0

7.9

5.6

5.4

8.5

5.5

5.2

5.0

1.6

6.8

5.6

3.3

2.8

5.1

2.0

1.2

0.1

-3.7

3.9 -13.5

1.0

0.1

-2.7

2.7

-6.9

0.2

919.4
7.0

935.0

-2.8 -11.6

906.6
958.7
974.1
987.7
12.2

1,016.5

-3.7 -17.3

969.4
24.9

1,024.8

2-93

4.3

5.1

5.4

5.2

4.1

3.6

3-93

4.1

4.8

5.1

4.8

3.8

3.3

6.2

5.1

2.9

2.5

4.4

1.8

988.3

4-93

4.5

5.2

5.5

5.3

4.4

4.0

6.7

5.7

3.8

3.5

5.3

3.1

2.6

2.1

0.2

5.1

-0.8

6.3

12.8

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

988.7
1,019.0

Fourth quarter data are final estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 31, 1994

19

B u sin ess P roductivity and C om pensation
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1988

1989

1990

1991

Percent

1992

1993

1994

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Business Sector Output per Hour
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terainal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

1982 = 100
4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93
110.1

2-89

-0.4

3-89

-0.9

-1.4

4-89

-0.6

-0.7

0.0

1-90

0.0

0.1

0.9

1.8

2-90

0.7

0.9

1.7

2.6

3.3

3-90

0.4

0.5

1.0

1.3

1.1

-1.1

4-90

0.2

0.2

0.6

0.7

0.4

-1.1

-1.1

1-91

0.3

0.4

0.7

0.9

0.6

-0.2

0.2

1.5

2-91

0.6

0.7

1.0

1.2

1.0

0.5

1.0

2.0

2.5

3-91

0.6

0.7

1.0

1.1

1.0

0.5

0.9

1.6

1.6

0.7

4-91

0.9

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.3

1.0

1.4

2.1

2.3

2.2

3.6

1-92

1.2

1.3

1.6

1.8

1.8

1.5

2.0

2.6

2.9

3.0

4.2

4.7

2-92

1.3

1.4

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.7

2.0

2.6

2.8

2.9

3.6

3.6

2.5

3-92

1.5

1.6

1.9

2.1

2.1

1.9

2.3

2.8

3.0

3.1

3.8

3.8

3.4

4.2

4-92

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.2

2.1

2.5

2.9

3.2

3.3

3.8

3.8

3.5

4.0

3.8

1-93

1.4

1.5

1.8

1.9

1.9

1.8

2.1

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.8

2.7

2.2

2.1

1.0

-1.7

2-93

1.3

1.4

1.6

1.8

1.8

1.6

1.9

2.2

2.3

2.2

2.4

2.2

1.7

1.6

0.7

-0.9

0.0

3-93

1.5

1.6

1.8

1.9

1.9

1.8

2.0

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.4

2.0

1.9

1.4

0.6

1.7

3.5

4-93

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.1

2.4

2.7

2.8

2.8

3.0

3.0

2.7

2.8

2.5

2.1

3.4

5.2

7.0

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-9C

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

109.7




109.7
110.2
111.1
110.8
110.5
110.9
111.6
111.8
112.8
114.1
114.8
116.0
117.1
116.6
116.6
117.6
119.6

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 8, 1994

20

N et

F e d e ra l

Debt

(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Billions of
Dollars

Initial Quarter

Terminal
Quarter
1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93
2,151.7

2-89

5.6

3-89

6.5

7.5

4-89

7.3

8.1

8.7

1-90

9.1

10.3

11.8

15.0

2-90

9.6

10.6

11.7

13.2

11.5

3-90

10.0

10.9

11.8

12.8

11.7

11.9

4-90

10.5

11.3

12.1

13.0

12.3

12.7

13.6

1-91

10.3

11.0

11.6

12.2

11.5

11.5

11.3

9.1

2-91

10.5

11.1

11.6

12.1

11.6

11.6

11.5

10.5

2,190.8
2,236.9
2,316.3
2,380.4
2,448.3
2,527.5
2,583.4
2,656.6

11.8

2,757.6

3-91

11.0

11.7

12.2

12.7

12.3

12.5

12.6

12.3

13.9

16.1

4-91

10.9

11.5

11.9

12.3

12.0

12.0

12.0

11.7

12.5

12.9

9.7

1-92

11.0

11.5

11.9

12.2

11.9

12.0

12.0

11.7

12.3

12.5

10.7

11.7

2-92

11.1

11.6

12.0

12.3

12.1

12.1

12.2

11.9

12.5

12.6

11.5

12.4

13.2

3-92

11.0

11.5

11.8

12.1

11.8

11.8

11.8

11.6

12.0

12.0

11.0

11.5

11.4

4-92

10.8

11.2

11.5

11.7

11.4

11.4

11.3

11.0

11.3

11.2

10.3

10.4

10.0

8.5

7.4

1-93

10.5

10.9

11.1

11.3

11.0

11.0

10.9

10.6

10.7

10.6

9.7

9.7

9.2

7.9

7.1

6.9

2-93

10.7

11.0

11.3

11.4

11.2

11.1

11.1

10.8

11.0

10.9

10.2

10.3

10.0

9.2

9.1

10.0

13.2

3-93

10.4

10.6

10.9

11.0

10.7

10.7

10.6

10.3

10.4

10.2

9.5

9.5

9.1

8.3

8.0

8.3

9.0

4.9

4-93

10.2

10.5

10.7

10.8

10.5

10.4

10.3

10.1

10.1

10.0

9.3

9.3

8.9

8.2

7.9

8.1

8.5

6.2

7.5

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

2,822.2
2,901.1
2,992.5
3,061.7

9.6

3,116.5
3,168.6
3,268.6
3,308.0
3,368.7

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 31, 1994

FEDERAL G O VER NM EN T DEBT
(b illio n s o f d o lla rs )
S e a s o n a lly A d ju s te d E nd o f M o n th T o ta ls
Gross
federal debt

1988 March
June
September
December

Federal debt held
by agencies
and trusts

Net
federal debt

Federal debt held
by Federal
Reserve Banks

Federal debt held
by private
investors

Federal debt held
by foreign
investors

499.0
528.4
552.2
584.4

1988.5
2021.2
2062.0
2086.6

220.9
227.1
232.3
231.7

1765.0
1796.5
1830.5
1855.1

331.0
343.3
348.5
363.1

1989 March
June
September
December

2487.7
2548.8
2613.8
2673.0
2738.8
2801.7
2869.3
2942.2

617.4
650.6
679.0
701.9

2122.5
2151.7
2190.8
2236.9

232.8
231.4
223.6
221.4

1886.9
1919.9
1967.3
2013.2

375.1
367.3
398.5
429.2

1990 March
June
September
December

3048.3
3146.3
3246.4
3353.0

734.2
766.9
799.0
820.6

2316.3
2380.4
2448.3
2527.5

223.9
231.1
235.5
251.3

2096.5
2153.8
2217.0
2286.0

420.5
426.0
443.9
456.6

1991 March
June
September
December

3460.5
3541.4
3680.1
3787.6

880.5
886.3
923.9
958.5

2583.4
2656.6
2757.6
2822.2

253.0
255.0
268.0
272.1

2339.8
2411.3
2500.1
2560.4

463.8
472.7
480.7
488.8

1992 March
June
September
December

3876.1
3988.9
4081.1
4160.9

978.8
998.6
1021.1
1036.4

2901.1
2992.5
3061.7
3116.5

274.0
277.0
300.1
291.7

2640.9
2727.5
2777.5
2836.6

508.4
529.1
538.4
546.4

1993 March
June
September
December

4226.4
4356.4
4429.2
4517.6

1059.0
1090.0
1122.3
1139.8

3168.6
3268.6
3308.0
3368.7

312.7
328.5
329.7
331.9

2869.2
2953.2
2995.0
3044.7

566.6
567.6
595.9
619.6

Columns may not add because each component is seasonally adjusted separately. Gross federal debt equals debt held by agencies and trusts plus net federal debt.
Net federal debt equals debt held by Federal Reserve banks plus debt held by private investors (which includes debt held by foreign investors). Sources: Original
data may be found in the Treasury Bulletin and also in the Federal Reserve Bulletin; seasonally adjusted series prepared by this Bank.
Data have been revised to reflect changed seasonal adjustment factors.




21

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGETS
(billions of dollars, quarterly totals seasonally adjusted at annual rates)

Quarters

Receipts
National
income accounts
budget

Expenditures
National
Cyclically
income accounts
adjusted
budget
budget

Cyclically
adjusted
budget

Surplus or d e fic it(-)
Cyclically
National
income accounts
adjusted
budget _
budget

4

809.4
814.2
828.2
856.8

816.4
832.2
852.1
875.5

992.7
1038.0
1047.9
1034.3

1001.4
1045.2
1032.4
1038.7

-183.3
-223.8
-219.7
-177.5

-185.0
-213.0
-180.3
-163.2

1987 1
2
3
4

858.4
928.6
924.5
943.5

875.1
938.1
927.2
930.0

1048.1
1058.9
1059.0
1096.3

1057.4
1060.4
1065.6
1103.0

-189.7
-130.3
-134.5
-152.7

-182.3
-122.3
-138.4
-173.0

1988 1
2
3
4

940.5
970.4
977.8
1000.6

924.9
949.5
953.0
971.4

1098.0
1105.0
1097.3
1135.5

1098.0
1111.4
1098.2
1156.1

-157.5
-134.6
-119.5
-134.9

-173.1
-161.9
-145.2
-184.7

1989 1
2
3
4

1050.9
1064.5
1053.6
1068.3

1014.3
1032.2
1020.2
1035.4

1160.8
1174.2
1181.5
1209.8

1181.0
1187.3
1182.0
1208.2

-110.0
-109.7
-128.0
-141.5

-166.7
-155.1
-161.8
-172.8

1990 1
2
3
4

1091.3
1114.5
1123.7
1115.8

1061.7
1093.4
1116.0
1132.1

1257.8
1266.5
1268.3
1306.9

1252.2
1275.4
1273.6
1311.2

-166.4
-152.0
-144.6
-191.0

-190.5
-182.0
-157.6
-179.1

1991 1
2
3
4

1115.8
1120.3
1132.6
1142.5

1160.1
1173.7
N.A.
N.A.

1261.0
1326.5
1350.2
1387.2

1257.9
1319.3
N.A.
N.A.

-145.2
-206.2
-217.7
-244.7

- 97.8
-145.6
N.A.
N.A.

1992 1
2
3
4

1165.9
1176.1
1169.1
1221.1

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

1436.1
1456.0
1459.8
1485.3

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

-270.2
- 279.9
-290.7
-264.2

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

1993 1
2
3
4

1218.4
1268.0
1275.9
1316.6

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

1481.9
1490.6
1488.5
1522.6

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

-263.5
-222.6
-212.7
-206.0

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

1986 1
2
3

N.A. — Not Available
Fiscal years

Actual
1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

Estimates

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

Total budget
Receipts
Outlays
Surplus or deficit ( - )

769.1 $ 854.1 $ 909.0 $ 990.7 $ 1031.3 $ 1054.3 $ 1090.5 $ 1153.2
1064.1
1143.2
1252.7
1408.1
990.3
1003.9
1323.8
1380.9

$ 1249.1 $ 1353.8
1483.8
1518.9

$ - 221.2 $ -1 4 9 .8 $ -155.2 $ -1 5 2 .5 $ -2 2 1 .4 $ -2 6 9 .5 $ -2 9 0 .4 $ -2 5 4 .9

$ -2 3 4 .8 $ -165.1

$

Calendar years
National income accounts
budget

Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or deficit( - )

$

827.2 $ 913.8 $ 972.3 $ 1059.3 $ 1107.4 $ 1127.8 $ 1183.0 $ 1269.7
1028.2
1065.6
1181.6
1273.6
1331.2
1459.3
1109.0
1495.9

$ - 201.0 $ -1 5 1 .8 $ -1 36.6 $ -1 2 2 .3 $ -1 6 6 .2 $ -2 0 3 .4 $ -2 7 6 .3 $ -2 2 6 .2

Cyclically adjusted budget

Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or deficit( - )

$

844.1 $ 917.6 $ 949.7 $ 1025.5 $ 1100.8
1029.4
1071.6
1189.6
1278.1
1115.9

$ - 185.4 $ -1 5 4 .0 $ -1 66.2 $ -1 6 4 .1

$ -1 7 7 .3

Fiscal years refer to the budget year which runs from October 1 through September 30.
Total budget outlays include federal entities that are off-budget.
Estimates from OMB’s Fiscal 1995 Budget (February 7, 1994).
Cyclically adjusted budget data are in process of revision.
Totals may not add due to rounding.
Source: Office of Management and Budget and U.S. Department of Commerce.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis




22

G overnm ent D eficit( - ) /S u r p lu s (+ )
Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

National income accounts basis
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Federal Defense Expenditures
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-89
2-89

6.6

3-89

8.2

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92

1-91

Billions of Dollars
2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93
298.2

9.9

305.3

4-89

4.1

2.9

-3.6

1-90

6.3

6.3

4.5

13.3

2-90

5.1

4.8

3.2

6.7

0.5

3-90

3.5

2.9

1.2

2.9

-1.9

-4.3

4-90

5.5

5.4

4.5

6.6

4.5

6.5

18.5

1-91

6.3

6.2

5.6

7.6

6.2

8.1

14.9

11.5

2-91

4.8

4.6

3.9

5.2

3.6

4.4

7.5

2.4

-6.0

3-91

3.7

3.4

2.6

3.5

1.9

2.2

3.9

-0.5

-6.1

-6.1

4-91

2.2

1.7

0.9

1.4

-0.2

-0.3

0.5

-3.5

-8.0

-9.0 -11.9

1-92

2.1

1.7

0.9

1.4

0.0

0.0

0.7

-2.5

-5.8

-5.7

-5.5

1.4

2-92

1.7

1.3

0.6

1.0

-0.2

-0.3

0.2

-2.5

-5.1

-4.9

-4.5

-0.5

-2.4

3-92

2.2

1.9

1.2

1.7

0.6

0.6

1.2

-1.0

-3.0

-2.4

-1.4

2.4

2.8

8.4

4-92

2.0

1.6

1.0

1.4

0.4

0.4

0.9

-1.1

-2.7

-2.2

-1.4

1.4

1.5

3.4

1-93

0.9

0.6

0.0

0.2

-0.8

-0.9

-0.6

-2.5

-4.1

-3.8

-3.4

-1.6

-2.4

-2.4

-7.4 -13.1

2-93

1.1

0.8

0.2

0.5

-0.4

-0.5

-0.2

-1.9

-3.3

-2.9

-2.4

-0.8

-1.2

-0.9

-3.8

-5.1

3.7

3-93

0.6

0.3

-0.3

-0.1

-0.9

-1.1

-0.8

-2.4

-3.7

-3.4

-3.1

-1.7

-2.2

-2.2

-4.7

-5.8

-1.9

-7.2

4-93

0.4

0.1

-0.5

-0.3

-1.1

-1.2

-1.0

-2.5

-3.6

-3.4

-3.1

-1.9

-2.4

-2.4

-4.4

-5.2

-2.4

-5.4

-3.5

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

302.5
312.1
312.5
309.1
322.5
331.4
326.3
321.2
311.2
312.3
310.4
316.7
-1.3

315.7
304.8
307.6
301.9
299.2

Fourth quarter data are final estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 31, 1994

23

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Post Office Box 442
St. Louis, Missouri 63166

Subscriber:
Please include address label with
su bscription inquiries or address changes.

Federal Nondefense Expenditures
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-89
2-89

4.1

3-89

2.1

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92

1-91

Billions of Dollars
2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93
876.0

0.1

876.2
907.3

4-89

6.2

7.3

15.0

1-90

9.0

10.7

16.5

18.0

2-90

7.9

8.9

12.0

10.6

3.6

3-90

6.9

7.5

9.5

7.7

2.9

2.2

4-90

7.5

8.1

9.8

8.5

5.5

6.5

1-91

3.5

3.5

4.0

2.0

-1.7

-3.4

2-91

6.5

6.9

7.9

6.7

4.6

4.8

5.7

3.2

34.0

3-91

7.1

7.4

8.4

7.5

5.8

6.2

7.3

6.1

22.5

12.0

4-91

8.2

8.6

9.6

8.9

7.7

8.4

9.6

9.3

21.5

15.7

19.6

1-92

9.0

9.5

10.5

10.0

9.0

9.8

11.1

11.2

20.9

16.8

19.3

19.0

2-92

8.9

9.4

10.2

9.8

8.9

9.6

10.7

10.6

18.2

14.5

15.4

13.4

8.0

3-92

8.2

8.5

9.3

8.8

7.9

8.4

9.2

8.9

14.8

11.3

11.1

8.4

3.5

-0.9

4-92

8.3

8.6

9.3

8.8

8.0

8.5

9.2

9.0

14.0

11.0

10.8

8.7

5.5

4.2

9.6

945.7
954.0
959.2
984.4

10.9

929.6

-6.1 -20.5
1,000.2

1,029.0
1,076.0
1,123.8
1,145.6
1,143.1
1,169.6

1-93

7.9

8.2

8.8

8.3

7.6

7.9

8.5

8.3

12.5

9.8

9.4

7.4

4.7

3.7

6.0

2.6

2-93

7.6

7.8

8.3

7.9

7.1

7.4

7.9

7.6

11.3

8.8

8.3

6.5

4.2

3.3

4.7

2.3

3-93

7.2

7.4

7.9

7.4

6.7

6.9

7.3

7.0

10.3

7.9

7.4

5.8

3.7

2.9

3.8

1.9

1.6

1.2

7.5

7.7

8.2

7.8

7.1

7.4

7.8

7.5

10.5

8.4

8.0

6.6

5.0

4.5

5.6

4.6

5.3

6.9

13.0

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1,177.1
1,183.0

2.0

1,186.6
1,223.4

Fourth quarter data are final estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March SI, 1994

24