Full text of National Economic Trends : April 1990
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N a t io n a l E c o n o m ic T r e n d s A p ril 1990 A n e c o n o m T a b le 1 c u r r e n t m o v e T h e e x c e p t io n to m o n t h ly th e s e w h e n t h is o f o f re a l G N P is m e a s u re d s e v e r a l p e r io d s , g r o w th p a tte rn o u tp u t in t e r c h a n g e a b ly d a ta fo r w h ic h th e it s o f g r o w th o u tp u t c o r r e s p o n d o f r e a l G N w a s b y in d ic a to r s P fa ilu r e to th e a c c e le r a te d o f r e a l in o v e r o r r e a l c h a rt o n s lo w e d , p e r s o n a l (in fla t io n - a d ju s t e d ) p e r io d s o f p a g e g r o w th c o n s u m p tio n o u tp u t r e la tiv e ly fa s t 13 r e le a s e , o f th is o f th e o r n a r r o w e r e x p e n d itu r e s o f g o o d s g r o w th a ll in d ic a to r s m e a s u re s ( P C s e r ie s d u r in g to th e to d r a w 2 9 T a b l e m e a s u re s in t e r p r e t 1 . to m o v e th e in fe r e n c e s q u a rte rs o f C h a n g e R e a l R e a l - 11/1984 r e a l o v e r o f G N f o r lo n g o u tp u t P is a th e M t im e A s e a s u r e s o f t a b le 2 n o t E ) im p ly F o r to w it h th a t h o w e v e r , g ro w th E c o n o m i c A in g r o w th 5 .3 % 5 .2 % 3 .6 4 .2 3 .2 1 .3 III/ 1 9 8 6 - 1/1989 4 .1 3 .8 2.8 3 .6 4 .9 2.2 2 .3 2 .7 2.6 1 .4 2 . S i m p l e C o r r e l a t i o n s R e a l m e a s u re R e a l G N P R e a l f in a l R e a l P C E s a le s f in a l A m o n g G r o w d e n o te s s t a t is tic a l R a t e s o f O u t p u t M e a s u r e s 1 R e a l In d u s t r ia l P C E p r o d u c tio n 0 .1 8 8 0 .2 1 7 0 .7 5 2 * 1 .0 0 0 0 .7 0 9 * 0 .0 2 7 - 0 .2 9 1 1 .0 0 0 0 .1 5 0 - 0 .2 2 6 1 .0 0 0 0 .2 8 4 s ig n if ic a n c e at th e 0 .0 5 ra te 1 3 .2 % s a le s p r o d u c tio n a s te r is k t h u s e g r o w th In d u s t r ia l 4 .4 % T a b le th e c a n a n a ly s t s p ro d u c t io n in c o m e 2 .7 - IV / 1989 in d ic a t o r s in d u s t r ia l p r o d u c t io n . 7 .0 % *A n g e n e r a lly c t i v i t y d is p o s a b le p e rs o n a l th e - III/ 1986 In d u s t r ia l th e s im ila r ly . fa s te r m a n y 11/1984 O u tp u t s e r v ic e s . d u r in g m o v e d s h o w e x a m p le , in d ic a t e s , o n ly R e a l R e a l P C E d o e s b a s is . s ig n ific a n tly R e a l s a le s o f s h o rte r- te rm q u a r te r . c o r r e la t e d S e le c t e d fin a l p e r io d s o n w it h in c u r r e n t e x p a n s io n G N P IV / 198 2 to g e th e r m o v e m e n t a b o u t o f th e R a t e s P e r io d 1/1989 a n d s lo w 1 /1 9 8 9 . te n d e n c y u s e d to t y p ic a lly d a ta O v e r c o n c e r t ; th a t is , I I I / 1 9 8 6 T h is b e p r o v id e s e x p a n s io n . in o n ly fr o m y ’s p e r fo r m a n c e b e lo w R e a l d is p o s a b le p e rs o n a l in c o m e 0 .3 3 3 le v e l. — T H F E D M ic h a e l E E R A L R E S E R V E R A N K S R o f I / H I S View s expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System. T . B e lo n g ia T O T A L CIVILIAN E M P L O Y M E N T ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a ) Rates of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL MONTH THOUSANDS OF PERSONS IN IT IA L MONTH 8-88 7-88 8-88 2.0 9-88 1.9 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 5—89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 115*219 115.395 1.8 115.647 10-88 2.2 2.2 2.7 11-88 2.6 2.8 5.5 5.9 12-88 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.6 1.5 1-89 2.8 5.0 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 2-89 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.6 5.2 1.2 116.012 116.141 116.640 116.757 117.047 5-89 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.7 5.2 2.1 5.0 4-89 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.5 1.5 1.7 0.4 5-89 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.2 1.9 2.1 1.5 1.5 0.4 0.5 117.084 117.132 117.542 6-89 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 1.9 2.0 1.7 2.4 4.5 7-89 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.8 1.9 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.6 -1.1 8-89 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.4 0.0 1.2 117.456 117.550 117.419 9-89 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.7 -0.4 -0.1 -1.5 10-89 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.2 1.7 11-89 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.2 0.6 1.0 1.0 2.1 12-89 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.6 1.6 0.5 1-90 1# 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.1 -0.5 2-90 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.1 l.l 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.8 1.8 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 117.585 117.836 2.6 117.888 117.863 118.035 IN IT IA L MONTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MARCH 9» 1990 P A Y R O L L E M P L O Y M E N T (C o m p o u n d e d A n n n a l R a t e s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL MONTH 7-88 8-88 9-88 18-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 •"88 2.1 9-88 2.5 10-88 2.7 5.0 5.1 U-88 3.0 3.3 5.5 4*0 12-88 5.0 3.3 3.4 3.6 S .l 1-89 3 .« 1.4 5.1 1.7 3.S S .9 2-89 1.2 1.5 3.4 1.1 S .4 S .S S .S 1-89 8.0 S .l 1.2 3.2 3.0 3.0 2 .1 2.8 IN IT IA L MONTH OF PERSONS 4-89 5-89 3-89 THOUSANDS 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 105.954 2.9 106.207 106.475 106.824 107.097 107*442 107*711 107*888 4-89 3.0 S .l S .l l.l 2.9 2 .8 2*» 2.2 2.4 5-89 2.9 I.i 1.8 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.5 6-89 2.9 5.8 3.8 14 2.9 2.8 2*6 24 2.7 2.8 5.5 7-89 2*8 2.9 2.9 2*8 2*7 2.7 2 .5 2.4 24 2.5 2.6 1.8 t-89 2 .7 2.8 2*8 2*7 2.6 2.1 2 .S 2.2 24 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.5 108*101 108*510 108*607 108*767 108*887 9-89 2.7 t.7 2*7 2*7 2*6 2.1 2 .S 2.2 24 2.2 2.2 1.8 1.8 2.5 18-89 24 t.* 2 .« 2 .» 2*4 2 .S 2.2 24 2.6 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.6 0.8 11-89 24 24 24 24 2 .» 2 .4 2.2 24 24 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.0 5.1 13-89 M 2.8 24 14 2.4 2.3 2*2 2,1 2.1 24 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.7 2.2 1.5 109*096 109*171 109*452 109*570 1-90 2.6 t.4 2 .8 2*8 2 ,1 2.4 24 24 24 2.2 2 .2 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.2 2.7 2.5 5.7 2-90 2.7 2 .7 t.7 t.7 2.6 2 .t 2.4 2*4 2 .4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.6 5.1 5.0 5.9 4.1 7-88 8-88 9-88 18-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 109.902P 110.274P I N ITIAL M O N T H P- PRELIMINARY P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S M A R C H 9* 1990 2 EMPLOYMENT RATIO SCALE MILLIONS OF RATIO SEASONALLY ADJUSTED PERSONS MILLIONS OF SCALE PERSONS SOURCEt U.S.DEPARTMENT OF LABOR BEGINNING JANUARY 1986. TOTAL EMPLOYMENT OATA INCORPORATE NEW PROCEDURES FOR ESTIMATING MEASURES OF IMMIGRATION AND EMIGRATION INCREASING TOTAL EMPLOYMENT BY ABOUT 0.3%. PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED: FEBRUARY PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS UN EMPL OY MEN T RATE PERCENT S E A S O N A L L Y PERCENT A D J U S T E D 1 1 .0 10. 1 0 .0 9. 9.0 8 . 8 . 0 7. 7.0 6 . 6 . 0 5. 5.0 4. 4.0 1982 1983 1984 19 8 5 1986 1987 19 8 8 19 8 9 1990 SOURCE: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE LATEST DATA PLOTTED: FEBRUARY P R E P A RE D 3 BY FE DE RA L RE SE RV E DA NK OF ST. LOUIS C O N S U M E R PRICE INDEX F O R ALL U R B A N C O N S U M E R S ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL MONTH INITIAL M O N T H 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 1982-84*100 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 119.0 8-88 4.1 9-88 5.2 10-88 4.8 5.1 4.1 11-88 4.4 4.4 3.6 3.0 12-88 4.3 4 .5 3.7 3.6 4.1 119.6 6.2 120.0 120.3 120.7 121.4 1-89 4.8 4.9 4.6 4.7 5.6 7.2 2-89 4.8 4.9 4.7 4.8 5.4 6.1 5.1 3-89 5.0 5.1 4.9 5.1 5.6 6.1 5.6 6.1 4-89 5.3 5.5 5.4 5.6 6.1 6.6 6.4 7.1 5-89 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.5 5.9 6.3 6.0 6.4 6.5 5.0 5.4 5.5 5.3 4.0 5.2 5.0 4.0 3.4 3.9 4.3 4.0 2.9 2.3 1.9 6-89 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.2 5.5 5.7 7-89 5.0 5.1 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.2 121.9 122.5 123.3 8.1 123.8 124.1 2.9 124.5 124.5 0.0 8-89 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.4 9-89 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.2 4.1 3.8 2.9 2.4 2.3 1.5 2.9 10-89 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.4 4.3 4.1 3.4 3.1 3.2 2.9 4.4 5.9 11-89 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.1 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.2 4.2 4.9 3.9 12-89 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.2 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.5 4.4 4.9 4.4 4.9 1-90 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 4.8 4.8 5.0 5.2 6.3 7.1 7.5 9.4 14.1 2-90 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.2 5.3 5.2 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.3 6.2 6.9 7.1 8.2 9.9 5.8 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 124.8 125.4 125.8 126.3 127.7 128.3 IN IT IA L MONTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MARCH 20» 1990 P R O D U C E R P R IC E IN D E X , F IN IS H E D G O O D S (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a ) R a t e s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL MONTH IN IT IA L MONTH 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 8-88 4.5 9-88 5.1 5.7 10-88 4.1 3.9 2.2 11-88 4.2 4.1 3.3 4.5 12-88 4.0 3.9 3.3 3.9 3.3 1-89 5.6 5.8 5.9 7.1 8.5 13.9 2-89 5.9 6.2 6.3 7.3 8.3 10.8 7.8 3-89 5.9 6.1 6.1 6.9 7.6 9.0 6.7 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 1982 • 100 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 108.6 109.1 109.3 109.7 110.0 111.2 111.9 5.5 112.4 4-89 6.1 6.3 6.4 7.1 7.6 8.7 7.0 6.6 7.7 5-89 6.4 6.6 6.7 7.3 7.8 8.7 7.5 7.3 8.3 8.8 6-89 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.5 6.8 7.4 6.2 5.7 5.8 4.9 1 1 7-89 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.3 5.4 5.7 4.4 3.7 3.2 1.8 -1 6 8-89 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.5 3.3 2.5 1.9 0.5 -2 1 -3.6 9-89 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.8 4.8 5.0 3.9 3.4 3.0 2.1 0 5 0.4 2.7 8.8 10-89 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.1 4.2 3.8 3.5 2.8 1 7 1.9 3.9 7.6 6.5 11-89 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.8 3.9 3.5 3.2 2.6 1 6 1.7 3.2 5.4 3.7 12-89 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.2 2 4 2.6 4.1 5.9 5.0 4.3 7.6 1-90 5.7 5.8 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.4 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.3 4 9 5.5 7.2 9.4 9.5 10.5 15.6 24.1 2-90 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.9 5.3 5.1 5.1 4.8 4 4 4.8 6.1 7.7 7.5 7.8 10.1 11.4 0.0 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 113.1 113.9 114.0 -4.1 113.6 -3.1 113.3 114.1 114.7 1.1 114.8 115.5 117.6 117.6 INITIAL M O N T H P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. LOUIS M A R C H 16» 1990 4 R A T I O SCALE PRICES R A T I O SCALE C O N S U M E R PR IC C S » A T A A R C O N A I M 2 - 8 4 - I O O BASE C P I - U D A T A B E G I N N I N G 1983 I N C O R P O R A T E A RE N T A L EOUI V A L E N C E M E A S U R E F O R H O M E O V N E R S H I P COSTS. P E R C E N T A G E S A R E A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E F O R P E R I O D S INDICATED. LATEST DA TA PLOTTEOt FE BRUARY P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K OF ST. L O U I S r a t io sc a le P R O D U C E R P R I C E S r a t i o sc a l e P E R C E N T A G E S A R E A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E F O R P E R I O D S I N D ICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt FEBRUARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 5 P R O D U C E R PRICE INDEX, FINISHED C O N S U M E R F O O D S ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL MONTH 1982 * 100 IN IT IA L MONTH 7-88 8-88 8-88 7.7 9-88 10.5 13.5 10-88 7.3 7.1 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 113.5 114.7 1.1 114.8 11-88 6.8 6.5 3.2 5.4 12-88 5.8 5.4 2.8 3.7 2.1 115.3 1-89 7.6 7.6 6.1 7.9 9.2 16.7 2-89 7.9 7.9 6.8 8.3 9.3 13.1 9.6 115.5 117.0 117.9 118.6 5-89 7.8 7.8 6.9 8.1 8.8 11.2 8.5 7.4 4-89 6.2 6.0 5.0 5.7 5.7 6.6 3.5 0.5 -5.9 5-89 6.2 6.0 5.1 5.7 5.8 6.6 4.2 2.4 0.0 6.3 6-89 4.9 4.7 3.7 4.1 3.9 4.2 1.9 0.0 -2.3 -0.5 -6.9 7-89 4.7 4.4 3.6 3.9 3.7 3.9 1.9 0.4 -1.3 0.3 -2.5 2.1 8-89 4.7 4.4 3.6 3.9 3.7 3.9 2.2 1.0 -0.2 1.3 -0.3 3.1 118.0 118.6 117.9 118.1 118.5 4.1 118.1 9-89 4.0 3.7 3.0 3.1 2.9 3.0 1.4 0.3 -0.8 0.2 -1.3 0.7 0.0 -4.0 10-89 4.9 4.7 4.0 4.3 4.2 4.4 3.1 2.3 1.6 2.9 2.2 4.7 5.5 6.2 11-89 5.3 5.1 4.5 4.8 4.8 5.0 3.9 3.3 2.8 4.1 3.7 6.0 7.0 8.0 14.5 11.6 12-89 5.4 5.2 4.7 5.0 5.0 5.2 4.2 3.7 3.3 4.5 4.2 6.2 7.0 7.8 12.0 9.4 119.7 17.5 120.8 7.2 121.5 1-90 6.5 6.4 6.0 6.4 6.4 6.8 6.0 5.7 5.5 6.8 6.9 9.0 10.2 11.5 15.7 15.2 17.0 27.7 2-90 6.8 6.7 6.3 6.7 6.7 7.1 6.4 6.1 6.0 7.3 7.4 9.3 10.4 11.4 14.8 14.2 15.0 19.1 11.2 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 124.0 125.1 IN IT IA L MONTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MARCH 14» 1990 P R O D U C E R P R IC E IN D E X , F IN IS H E D G O O D S , E X C L U D IN G FO O D S (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL MONTH IN IT IA L MONTH 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 8-88 3.4 9-88 3.4 3.4 10-88 3.0 2.8 2.3 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 1982 « 100 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 106.9 107.2 107.4 11-88 3.4 3.4 3.4 4.6 12-88 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.6 4.5 1-89 4.9 5.2 5.7 6.9 8.0 11.7 2-89 5.5 5.9 6.4 7.4 8.4 10.4 107.8 108.2 109.2 9.2 110.0 3-89 5.4 5.7 6.1 6.8 7.4 8.4 6.8 4.5 4-89 6.0 6.4 6.8 7.6 8.2 9.1 8.3 7.9 11.4 5-89 6.6 6.9 7.4 8.1 8.7 9.6 9.1 9.0 11.4 11.3 6-89 6.3 6.5 6.9 7.5 7.9 8.5 7.9 7.5 8.6 7.2 3.3 7-89 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.9 6.0 6.3 5.4 4.6 4.7 2.5 -1.6 -6.2 8-89 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.6 3.6 2.7 2.4 0.3 -3.2 -6.2 -6.2 110.4 111.4 112.4 112.7 112.1 111.5 9-89 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.0 4.4 4.4 3.0 1.1 0.4 3.8 14.9 10-89 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.5 4.8 4.3 4.2 3.1 1.5 1.1 3.6 8 .9 3.2 11-89 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.0 3.4 3.3 2.2 0.7 0.2 1.9 4.7 0.0 112.8 113.1 -3.1 112.8 12-89 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.3 3.8 3.8 2.8 1.7 1.4 3.0 5.5 2.5 2.1 7.7 1-90 5.5 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.2 5.8 5.5 5.6 4.9 4.2 4.3 6.2 8.8 7.4 8.8 15.2 23.3 2-90 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.1 4.7 4.8 4.1 3.3 3.3 4.8 6.7 5.2 5.7 8.8 9.3 -3.1 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-68 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 113.5 115.5 115.2 INITIAL M O N T H P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O UIS M A R C H 16» 1990 6 N D U S T R I A L RATIO P R O D U C T I O N SCALE RATIO SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1977-100 SCALE 1977-100 PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED« FEBRUARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS IN D U S T R IA L P R O D U C T IO N (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL MONTH 7-88 IN IT IA L MONTH 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 1977 * 100 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 138.5 8-88 4.4 9-88 2.6 10-88 4.1 4.0 7.2 11—88 4.2 4.1 5.8 4.4 12-88 4.2 4.2 5.3 4.4 4.4 1-89 4.1 4.0 4.8 4.1 3.9 3.5 2-89 3.1 2.9 3.3 2.4 1.7 0.4 -2.5 3-89 2.9 2.7 3.1 2.3 1.7 0.9 -0.4 1.7 4-89 3.6 3.5 3.9 3.3 3.1 2.8 2.6 5.2 8.9 5-89 3.1 3.0 3.3 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.7 3.2 3.9 -0.8 6-89 3.2 3.0 3.3 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.1 3.2 3.7 1.3 3.4 7-89 2.8 2.7 2.9 2.4 2.2 1.8 1.6 2.4 2.6 0.6 1.3 -0.8 8-89 3.0 2.9 3.1 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.9 3.1 1.7 2.6 2.1 0.9 138.6 139.4 139.9 140.4 140.8 140.5 140.7 141.7 141.6 142.0 141.9 142.5 5.2 9-89 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.3 2.1 1.8 1.6 2.2 2.3 1.0 1.5 0.8 1.7 -1.7 10-89 2.2 2.0 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.2 0.9 1.4 1.3 0.1 0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -2.9 -4.1 11-89 2.3 2.2 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.7 1.7 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.8 -0.6 0.0 4.3 12-89 2.2 2.1 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.6 1.6 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.8 -0.2 0.3 2.6 1-90 1.4 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 -0.7 -0.6 -1.2 -1.3 -2.5 -2.7 -2.2 2-90 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -1.0 -0.8 0.0 -2.5 7.0 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 142.3 141.8 142.3 142.4 0.8 -5.4 -11.2 -1.4 141.OP 141.8P I NITIAL M O N T H P- P R E L I MINARY P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E BAN K OF ST. LOUIS M A R C H 16» 1990 7 PERSONAL RATI O SCALE TRILLIONS INCOME MONTHLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES OF DOl LARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED RATI O SCALE TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS 5.0 4.6 4.2 3.8 3.4 3.0 2 .6 2 .2 1982 1 98 3 1984 1985 198 6 1987 19 8 8 SOURCE: PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS LATEST DATA PLOTTED: 19 8 9 1990 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE INDICATED. FEBRUARY PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS P E R S O N A L IN C O M E (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL MONTH 7-88 8-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 2-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 4*094.2 4*118.6 5.8 10-88 10.2 13.3 19.6 11-88 6.7 7.5 7.6 4*180.4 -3.3 4*168.9 4*206.3 12-88 7.6 8.4 8.8 3.8 11.3 1-89 9.7 10.8 11.7 9.2 16.0 12.1 10.3 15.3 17.3 13.8 15.5 12.9 12.1 13.5 11.1 9.8 2-89 6-89 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4.3 7.4 9-88 1-89 IN IT IA L MONTH ANNUAL RATES 3-89 4-89 5-89 10.5 11.3 5-89 10.5 11.4 12.1 10.7 14.4 4-89 10.2 10.9 11.4 10.1 13.0 4*273.1 20.8 4*319.5 4*360.7 4*387.1 7.5 5-89 9.4 10.0 10.3 9.0 11.2 11.2 8.9 7.3 5.0 2.5 6-89 9.1 9.5 9.8 8 .6 10.4 10.3 8.3 7.0 5.3 4.2 5.9 7-89 8.9 9.3 9.5 8.5 10.0 9.9 8.1 7.0 5.8 5.3 6.6 7.4 8-89 8.5 8.9 9.0 8.0 9.3 9.1 7.5 6.5 5.4 4.8 5.6 5.5 4*396.3 4,417.5 4*443.7 3.6 4*456.9 9-89 8.1 8.4 8.5 7.5 8.6 8.4 6.9 5.9 4.9 4.4 4.9 4.6 3.2 2.8 10-89 8.2 8.4 8.5 7.7 8.7 8.4 7.2 6.3 5.6 5.2 5.8 5.7 5.2 6.0 9.3 4*467.1 4*500.3 11-89 8.4 8 .6 8.7 7.9 8.9 8.7 7.6 6.9 6.3 6.1 6.7 6.9 6.7 7.8 10.4 11.6 12-89 8.2 8.5 8.6 7.8 8.7 8.5 7.5 6.8 6.3 6.1 6.6 6.7 6.6 7.4 9.0 8.8 1-90 8.3 8.5 8.6 7.9 8.7 8.5 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.4 6.9 7.0 6.9 7.6 8.9 8.7 7.3 8.5 2-90 8.4 8.6 8.7 8.1 8.9 8.7 7.8 7.3 6.9 6.8 7.3 7.5 7.5 8.2 9.3 9.3 8.6 9.8 11.1 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-69 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 4*541.5 6.1 4*564.1 4*595.3 4*655.9P INITIAL M O N T H P- PRELIMINARY P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. LOUIS M A R C H 29* 1990 8 RETAIL SALES* RATIO RATIO SCALE BILLIONS 1982 OF SEASONALLY AOJUSTEO DOLLARS 1983 1984 1985 1986 BILLIONS 1987 1988 1989 OF SCALE DOLLARS 1990 SOURCE* U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED» JANUARY, FEBRUARY ADVANCE ESTIMATE «REVISED FROM 1982 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS R E T A IL S A L E S * (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s o f C h a n g e ) 7-88 8—88 MILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN IT IA L MONTH TERMINAL MONTH 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 137,121 -1.9 137,056 9-88 -1.2 -0.6 10-88 8.1 13.4 29.3 11-88 9.0 12.9 20.2 11.8 12-88 7.2 9.6 13.2 5.9 140,027 141,333 0.4 141,382 142,093 1-89 7.0 8 .9 11.4 6.0 3.3 6.2 2-89 5.0 6.2 7.6 2.7 -0.1 -0.4 -6.6 3-89 4.4 5.3 6.3 2.2 -0.1 -0.2 -3.3 0.2 4-89 6.1 7.2 8.3 5.1 3.9 4.7 4.3 10.2 21.2 143,584 5-89 6.1 7.0 8.0 5.3 4.2 5.0 4.7 8.8 13.3 6.0 144,284 6-89 5.6 6.4 7.2 4.7 3.7 4.3 3.9 6.7 9.0 3.4 0.8 7-89 5.9 6.6 7.4 5.2 4.4 5.0 4.8 7.2 9.0 5.3 4.9 9.1 8-89 6.2 6.9 7.7 5.7 5.0 5.6 5.6 7.7 9.3 6.5 6.7 9.8 10.5 9-89 6.1 6.8 7.4 5.6 5.0 5.6 5.5 7.3 8.6 6.2 6.3 8.1 7.6 10-89 4.6 5.1 5.5 3.7 3.0 3.3 3.0 4.2 4.8 2.3 1.6 1.8 -0.5 11-89 4.9 5.3 5.8 4.2 3.5 3.8 3.6 4.8 5.4 12-89 4.3 4.7 5.1 3.5 2.9 3.1 2.9 3.9 4.3 2.3 1.8 2.0 0.6 -1.7 1-90 6.1 6.5 7.0 5.7 5.2 5.6 5.6 6.8 7.4 6.0 6.0 6.8 6.4 5.6 2-90 5.2 5.6 5.9 4.6 4.2 4.4 4.3 5.3 5.8 4.3 4.1 4.6 3.9 2.9 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 « R EVISED FRO M 1982 P- PRELI M I N A R Y E- ESTIM A T E D 141,284 141,304 3.3 2.9 144,384 3.3 145,438 1.9 146,649 147,235 4.9 145,244 -5.6 -15.1 -0.8 9.4 146,340 -3.8 2.3 -4.3 145,804 5.8 13.8 16.0 40.7 2.5 7.4 6.7 12.7 -9.7 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 -3.6 150«012P 148.737E INITIAL M O N T H P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K OF ST. L O U I S M A R C H 20, 1990 9 H O U R L Y COMPENSATION, BUSINESS SECTOR ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a ) Rates of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER 1977*100 IN IT IA L QUARTER 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 175.5 2-85 4.0 5-85 4.8 5.6 4-85 5.5 6.0 1-86 5.4 5.8 5.9 5.5 2-86 5.2 5.5 5.4 5.0 4.5 175.9 178.6 6.5 181.0 185.0 185.1 5-86 5.1 5.5 5.2 4.9 4.6 4.7 4-86 5.1 5.5 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.9 5.1 187.4 188.5 1-87 4.7 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.0 5.9 5.5 1.9 2-87 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.0 5.7 5.6 5.2 2.5 2.6 5-87 4.5 4.6 4.4 4.2 5.9 5.8 5.6 5.1 5.8 4-87 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.1 4.8 6.0 7.1 4.2 4.1 4.0 5.8 4.5 4.9 4.9 2.7 189.5 191.8 4.9 195.1 196.4 1-88 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 2-88 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.1 4.6 5.1 5.1 4.1 5.6 5-88 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.8 5.2 5.5 4.7 5.7 4-88 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.5 4.8 5.5 5.5 5.5 1-89 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.2 4.8 5.5 5.5 5.0 2-89 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.7 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.2 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 6.9 5-89 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.7 5.0 5.5 5.5 5.1 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.8 4.6 4-89 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 5.1 5.5 5.4 5.1 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.1 5.6 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 199.1 201.9 5.7 204.5 4.8 206.9 210.4 212.8 215.7 IN IT IA L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MARCH 7» 1990 O U T P U T P E R H O U R O F A L L P E R S O N S , B U S IN E S S S E C T O R (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER IN IT IA L QUARTER 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 2-85 5.0 5-85 5.2 5.4 4-85 2.5 2.5 1.1 1-86 5.8 4.0 4.5 7.6 2-86 2.8 2.8 2.6 5.4 -0.7 5-86 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.6 -1.5 -1.8 4-86 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.4 -0.6 -0.5 0.7 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 1977*100 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 107.1 108.0 108.5 110.5 110.1 109.6 109.8 1-87 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.5 -0.5 -0.1 0.7 0.7 2-87 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.5 0.5 0.5 1.5 1.6 2.6 5-87 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.8 0.8 1.2 1.9 2.5 5.1 5.7 4-87 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.1 1.4 2.1 2.5 5.0 5.5 2.9 1-88 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.5 1.6 2.2 2.5 2.9 5.0 2.7 2.5 2-88 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.6 0.9 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.1 0.2 -2.1 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.1 0.4 2.9 1.8 1.7 1.5 0.9 0.4 1.6 0.4 1.7 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.5 1.4 0.7 1.1 110.0 110.7 111.7 112.5 115.2 112.6 5-88 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.1 1.5 1.7 4-88 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.0 1.2 1.6 1-89 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.2 1.5 2-89 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.7 1.4 0.9 1.2 1.4 5-89 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.1 0.9 1.5 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.8 4-89 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 1.2 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.0 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 1.7 115.4 115.5 115.8 114.2 114.7 114.7 IN ITIAL Q U A R T E R P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E BAN K O F ST. LOU I S M A R C H 7♦ 1990 10 PRO D U C TIVITY, RATI O COM PENSATION, AND LABOR SCALE 1977-100 1982 COSTS RATIO SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1983 1984 1985 1986 SCALE 1977-100 1987 1988 1989 1990 SOURCEt U .S . DEPARTMENT OF LABOR PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED« 4TH OUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LO UIS U N IT L A B O R C O S T S , B U S IN E S S S E C T O R (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL OUARTER IN IT IA L OUARTER 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 1977«100 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 161.9 2-85 0.7 3-85 1.7 2.7 4-85 2.7 3.7 4.7 1-86 1.5 1.8 1.4 -1.9 2-86 2.3 2.7 2.7 1.7 5.5 163.0 164.9 164.1 166.3 3-86 3.0 3.4 3.6 3.2 5.9 6.4 4-86 3.1 3.6 3.7 3.5 5.3 5.2 4.1 1-87 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.0 4.3 3.9 2.7 1.4 2-87 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.6 3.5 3.0 1.9 0.8 0.2 3-87 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.3 3.0 2.5 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.7 4-87 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.6 3.2 2.9 2.2 1.7 1.8 2.6 4.5 1-88 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.8 2.5 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.7 2.2 0.0 2-88 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.8 3.4 3.1 2.7 2.4 2.7 3.3 4.1 4.0 8.1 3-88 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.8 3.3 3.1 2.7 2.5 2.6 3.1 3.7 3.5 5.3 2.5 4-88 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.5 3.3 2.9 2.8 3.0 3.4 4.0 3.9 5.2 3.8 5.0 1-89 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.5 3.3 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.5 4.0 3.9 4.8 3.8 4.4 3.8 2-89 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.7 4.1 4.0 4.9 4.1 4.6 4.4 4.9 3-89 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.6 4.0 3.9 4.6 3.9 4.3 4.0 4.1 3.3 4-89 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.1 4.7 4.1 4.5 4.3 4.5 4.3 5.3 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 168.9 170.6 171.2 171.3 171.6 173.5 173.5 176.9 178.0 180.2 181.9 184.1 185.6 188.0 INITIAL Q U ARTER P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K OF ST. L O U I S M A R C H 7, 1990 11 G R O S S N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) INITIAL Q U ARTER terminal Q UARTER 1-85 2-8 5 5-85 4-85 4-85 6.2 6.6 6.2 1-86 6.5 6.8 6.7 7.5 2-86 5.4 5.4 4.9 4.5 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-8 2-88 5-88 4-8 8 1-89 2-89 5-89 BILLIONS OF DO L L A R S ANNUAL RATES 2-85 5-85 4,107.9 4,181.5 1.5 4,194.7 5-86 5.5 5.5 5.1 4.7 5.5 4-86 5.5 5.5 4.9 4.6 5.7 5.7 1-87 5.7 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.0 6.2 6.5 8.8 2-87 6.0 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.6 6.7 7.0 8.5 4,255.5 4.2 4,297.5 4,588.8 8.2 4,475.9 5-87 6.2 6.5 6.2 6.2 6.1 7.0 7.4 8.4 8.5 8.4 4-87 6.5 6.6 6.5 6.6 6.5 7.4 7.7 8.6 8.5 8.7 9.0 1-88 6.5 6.6 6.5 6.6 6.5 7.2 7.5 8.2 8.0 7.9 7.7 6.5 2-88 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.7 7.4 7.6 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.0 7.5 8.6 5-88 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 7.4 7.6 8.1 8.0 8.0 7.9 7.5 8.1 7.5 4-88 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.4 7.6 8.1 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.5 7.9 7.5 1-89 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 6.9 7.5 7.6 8.0 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.6 7.9 7.6 7.7 7.9 2-89 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 6.9 7.4 7.6 7.9 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.5 4,566.6 4,665.8 4,759.8 4,858.5 4,926.9 5,017.5 7.5 5,115.1 5,201.7 7.1 5,281.0 5-89 6.8 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.5 7.5 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.2 7.1 6.7 6.2 4-89 6.7 6.8 6.7 6.8 6.7 7.1 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.5 7.2 7.0 7.1 6.8 6.7 6.4 6.0 5.4 4.6 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 5,540.2 IN IT IA L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MARCH 28, 1990 G R O S S N A T IO N A L P R O D U C T IN 1982 D O L L A R S (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER BILLION S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES IN IT IA L QUARTER 1-85 2-85 2.4 5-85 5.5 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 5,599.2 4.1 5,655.8 4-85 5.2 5.5 5.0 1-86 4.0 4.5 4.7 6.6 5,662.4 2-86 2.8 2.9 2.5 2.5 -1.8 5,721.1 5,704.6 5-86 2.5 2.5 2.1 1.8 -0.5 0.8 4-86 2.5 2.5 2.1 1.9 0.4 1.6 1-87 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.6 1.7 2-87 5.0 5.1 2.9 2.9 2.2 5,712.4 5,755.6 2.5 5.8 5,785.0 5.4 4.9 5.2 4.4 5,825.5 5-87 5.2 5.5 5.2 5.2 2.7 5.6 4.5 5.0 4.8 5.5 4-87 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.5 4.1 4.8 5.4 5.4 5.9 6.6 1-88 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.4 4.1 4.7 5.1 5.1 5.5 5.5 4.0 2-88 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.4 4.0 4.5 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.8 5.9 4.0 5,872.8 5,955.6 5,974.8 4,010.7 5.7 5-88 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.4 4.4 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.4 5.6 5.4 5.2 4-88 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.5 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.2 4.0 5.4 5.2 2.9 2.7 1-89 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.5 4.1 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.0 5.5 5.5 5.2 5.2 5.7 2-89 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.7 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.0 5.8 5.5 5.2 5.0 5.0 5.1 2.5 5-89 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.7 5.9 4.0 5.9 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.1 2.8 5.0 4-89 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.1 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.0 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.2 2.0 1.1 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1—86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 2-86 5-86 4.042.7 4,069.4 4,106.8 4,152.5 4,162.9 4,174.1 INITIAL Q U ARTER P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S M A R C H 28, 1990 12 GROSS N A T I O N A L PRODUCT RATIO SCALE 1982 QUARTERLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 S O U R C E « P E R C E N T A G E S A R E L A T E S T P L O T T E D « D A T A A N N U A L R A T E S 4 T H O F C H A N G E FO R P E R I O D S RATIO 1988 U . S . 1989 D E P A R T M E N T SCALE 1990 O F C O M M ER C E I N D I C A T E D . O U A R T E R PREPARED 13 BY FEDERAL RES E R V E BANK OF ST. LOUIS G E N E R A L RATIO P R I C E I N D E X * SCALE RATIO SCALE 1982-100 1982 1982-100 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 «AS USED IN NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS SOURCEt U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED» 4TH OUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS IM P L IC IT P R IC E D E F L A T O R F O R G R O S S N A T IO N A L P R O D U C T (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER IN IT IA L QUARTER 1-85 2-85 3-85 2-85 3.3 3-85 2.9 2.6 4—85 3.1 2.9 3.3 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 1982 * 100 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 110.6 111.3 112.2 112.4 1-86 2.5 2.2 2.0 0.7 2-86 2.5 2.4 2.3 1.8 2.9 3-86 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.9 4.0 5.0 4-86 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 3.2 3.4 1.8 1-87 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 3.2 3.3 2.5 3.2 2-87 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.3 3.4 2.9 3.5 3.8 3-87 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.3 2.9 3.3 3.3 2.8 4-87 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.8 3.1 3.2 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.6 2.4 1-88 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 3.0 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.4 2.2 2.0 2-88 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.4 113.2 114.6 115.1 116.0 117.1 117.9 118.6 119.2 120.6 4.8 3-88 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.7 4.6 4.4 4-88 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 4.0 4.6 4.5 4.7 1-89 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 4.0 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.0 2-89 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 4.1 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.6 3-89 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.3 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.2 4-89 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.2 3.2 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 121.9 123.3 124.5 125.9 126.9 127.9 I N ITIAL QUA R T E R P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S M A R C H 28» 1990 14 P E R S O N A L C O N S U M P T I O N E X P E N D I T U R E S IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-84 2-84 5-84 4-84 IN IT IA L QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 2-85 7.1 5-85 8.5 9.9 4-85 7.7 7.9 4.0 1-84 7.0 7.0 5.4 5.1 2-84 4.4 4.2 5.0 4.5 4.0 5-86 7.0 4.9 4.2 4.2 4.8 4-86 4.8 4.8 4.2 4.2 4.4 7.9 4.2 1-87 4.8 4.8 4.2 4.5 4.4 7.5 4.4 4.4 2-87 7.2 7.2 4.9 7.0 7.4 8.5 7.8 8.4 10.7 5-87 7.4 7.5 7.2 7.5 7.7 8.5 8.1 8.8 9.9 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 2,599.5 2,661.4 2,700.4 2,754.5 2,761.0 9.8 2,826.0 2,868.5 2,914.7 2,989.4 9.2 5,055.9 5,085.5 4-87 7.1 7.1 4.8 4.9 7.1 7.4 7.2 7.5 7.8 4.4 5.4 1-88 7.2 7.2 4.9 7.1 7.5 7.8 7.5 7.7 8.0 7.1 4.1 8.7 2-88 7.2 7.2 7.0 7.1 7.5 7.7 7.5 7.7 7.9 7.2 4.4 8.0 7.4 5-88 7.2 7.5 7.0 7.1 7.5 7.7 7.5 7.4 7.8 7.5 4.8 7.9 7.5 4-88 7.5 7.5 7.1 7.2 7.4 7.7 7.5 7.4 7.8 7.5 7.0 7.8 7.5 7.4 7.4 1-89 7.5 7.5 7.1 7.2 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.7 7.5 7.0 7.7 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.1 2-89 7.5 7.5 7.1 7.2 7.4 7.4 7.5 7.4 7.7 7.5 7.1 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.4 5-89 7.5 7.5 7.1 7.2 7.4 7.4 7.5 7.4 7.7 7.4 7.1 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.6 4-89 7.2 7.2 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.1 4.9 7.5 7.1 7.1 7.0 4.8 6.7 6.5 4.9 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-84 2-84 5-84 4-84 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 5,148.1 5,204.9 5,265.4 7.5 5,524.0 5,581.4 5,444.1 7.4 5,508.1 5,550.6 IN IT IA L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MARCH 28, 1990 P E R S O N A L C O N S U M P T IO N E X P E N D IT U R E S IN 1982 D O L L A R S (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER 1-85 2-85 3-85 2-85 5.2 5-85 5.0 6.8 4-85 5.9 4.3 1.9 1-86 4.0 4.2 3.0 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 IN IT IA L QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 BILLIO N S OF DOLLARS 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 2,357.4 2,575.9 2,586.9 4.1 2,410.9 2-86 5.9 4.1 3.2 3.8 5.6 5-86 4.1 4.3 3.7 4.4 4.5 5.4 4-86 5.9 4.0 3.4 3.8 5.7 5.8 2.2 1-87 5.4 3.4 2.9 3.1 2.8 2.5 1.1 0.1 2,452.4 2,464.4 2,477.8 2,478.5 2-87 5.5 3.6 3.1 3.5 5.2 5.1 2.3 2.4 4.8 5-87 3.6 3.7 3.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 2.9 3.2 4.8 4.7 4-87 3.2 3.3 2.9 5.0 2.8 2.7 2.2 2.2 2.9 2.0 -0.7 1-88 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.4 5.5 5.2 2.9 3.0 3.7 3.4 2.7 6.2 2-88 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.3 5.2 3.1 2.8 2.9 3.5 3.2 2.7 4.4 2.5 2,507.7 2,556.5 2,552.5 2,570.8 2,586.8 5-88 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.5 5.2 5.1 2.9 3.0 3.5 3.2 2.8 4.0 2.9 3.5 4-88 3.4 3.4 3.1 5.3 5.2 3.1 2.9 3.0 3.4 5.2 2.9 3.8 3.0 3.2 2,608.1 5.0 2,627.7 1-89 3.3 3.5 3.1 3.2 5.1 5.0 2.8 2.9 3.2 5.0 2.7 3.4 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.0 2-89 3.2 5.2 3.0 5.1 5.0 2.9 2.7 2.8 3.1 2.9 2.6 3.2 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.0 5-89 3.4 3.4 3.2 5.2 5.2 5.1 3.0 3.0 3.3 5.2 3.0 3.5 3.1 3.2 5.1 3.2 3.8 5.6 4-89 3.2 3.2 3.0 5.1 5.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 3.1 2.9 2.7 3.1 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.7 3.0 0.5 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4—86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 2,441.0 1.9 2,455.7 2,490.1 2,495.7 INITIAL QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LÖUIS MARCH 28, 1990 15 G R O S S P RIVATE D O M E S T I C I N V E S T M E N T IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER 1-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 8.4 2-85 5-85 2-85 IN IT IA L QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 652.5 -5.9 -14.8 626.7 4-85 5.1 0.6 18.7 1-86 7.0 6.5 19.1 2-86 2.2 0.8 6.5 1.0 -14.7 5-86 0.9 -0.6 5.4 -1.5 -10.5 -5.7 4-86 0.8 -0.4 2.8 -0.8 -6.8 -2.5 0.7 1-87 2.6 1.8 4.9 2.5 -1.6 5.2 8.0 15.8 2-87 5.1 2.4 5.1 5.0 0.0 4.1 7.6 11.2 654.1 19.4 685.8 657.2 647.7 648.8 675.1 6.7 684.1 5-87 5.5 2.7 5.1 5.5 0.9 4.5 7.0 9.1 5.9 5.2 4-87 6.0 5.7 8.5 7.1 5.4 9.2 12.4 15.6 15.5 20.1 1-88 4.5 4.1 6.2 4.9 5.2 6.1 8.2 9.7 8.5 8.8 10.7 -10.7 2-88 5.0 4.7 6.7 5.5 4.1 6.7 8.6 10.0 8.9 9.4 10.8 692.8 57.1 749.7 728.8 -0.5 11.2 748.4 5-88 5.5 5.5 7.2 6.2 4.9 7.4 9.1 10.4 9.5 10.1 11.5 5.8 11.9 12.7 4-88 4.5 4.2 5.8 4.8 5.6 5.6 6.9 7.7 6.6 6.6 6.9 0.4 4.4 1.2 -9.2 1-89 4.7 4.5 6.0 5.1 4.0 5.9 7.1 7.9 6.9 7.0 7.5 2.1 5.6 5.8 -0.4 9.2 2-89 4.6 4.4 5.8 5.0 5.9 5.6 6.7 7.4 6.5 6.4 6.6 2.2 5.0 5.6 0.7 6.0 2.8 5-89 4.5 4.5 5.6 4.8 5.8 5.4 6.4 6.9 6.0 5.9 6.0 2.2 4.5 5.5 1.0 4.7 2.5 2.1 4-89 4.0 5.8 5.0 4.2 5.2 4.6 5.5 5.9 5.0 4.9 4.8 1.4 5.2 1.9 -0.1 2.5 0.1 -1.5 -4.5 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 771.1 752.8 769.6 775.0 779.1 770.1 IN IT IA L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS HARCH 28. 1990 G R O S S P R IV A T E D O M E S T IC IN V E S T M E N T IN 1982 D O L L A R S (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER 1-85 2-85 5-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 IN IT IA L QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 8.6 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 647.5 618.1 -5.0 -17.0 4-85 2.9 0.2 20.8 648.0 1-86 6.6 5.9 19.6 18.5 676.1 2-86 1.0 -0.8 5.5 -1.8 -18.5 642.5 5-86 -1.0 -2.8 1.1 -4.7 -14.5 -10.5 4-86 -1.7 -5.4 -0.4 1-87 0.9 -0.1 5.0 2-87 1.6 0.7 5-87 2.5 4-87 625.1 615.2 -5.1 -11.8 -8.5 -6.2 -0.2 -4.4 0.8 6.9 21.8 5.5 0.9 -2.5 2.2 6.8 15.9 6.6 1.6 4.2 2.1 -0.4 5.6 7.5 12.4 8.0 9.5 4.8 4.4 7.1 5.5 5.8 8.0 12.1 17.2 15.7 20.6 52.8 1-88 5.7 5.2 5.5 5.9 2.5 5.6 8.6 11.8 9.4 10.5 10.8 -7.6 2-88 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.9 2.4 5.4 7.9 10.4 8.2 8.6 8.4 -2.1 5.7 5-88 4.2 5.9 5.9 4.6 5.5 6.1 8.5 10.6 8.8 9.5 9.2 2.5 7.7 11.8 4-88 5.0 2.6 4.5 5.0 1.7 4.0 5.8 7.4 5.4 5.5 4.4 -1.7 0.4 -1.2 -12.7 1-89 5.5 2.9 4.5 5.5 2.2 4.5 5.9 7.5 5.6 5.5 4.8 0.0 2.0 1.4 -5.4 6.9 2-89 5.0 2.7 4.1 5.0 1.9 5.9 5.5 6.5 4.9 4.7 4.0 -0.1 1.4 0.9 -2.5 5.0 -0.7 5-89 5.0 2.7 4.1 5.0 2.0 5.8 5.0 6.1 4.7 4.5 5.9 0.5 1.7 1.2 -1.2 2.9 1.0 2.7 4-89 2.6 2.5 5.6 2.6 1.6 5.2 4.5 5.5 5.9 5.6 5.0 -0.5 0.8 0.4 -1.8 1.2 -0.7 -0.7 -4.0 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 646.5 656.7 671.7 721.1 707.0 715.5 755.6 709.1 721.1 719.8 724.6 717.5 INITIAL QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MARCH 28. 1990 16 G O V E R N M E N T P U R C H A S E S O F G O O D S A N D S E R V I C E S IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 IN IT IA L QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 801.7 2-85 9.1 5-85 14.7 20.6 4-85 12.5 14.2 8.1 1-86 8.4 8.2 2.4 -5.0 2-86 8.6 8.4 4.6 5.0 840.2 856.7 850.5 869.5 9.2 880.5 5-86 8.0 7.8 4.8 5.7 7.2 5.2 4-86 7.4 7.1 4.6 5.8 6.1 4.6 4.0 1-87 7.5 7.5 5.2 4.7 6.7 5.8 6.1 8.5 2-87 7.2 6.9 5.1 4.6 6.2 5.5 5.6 6.4 4.4 5-87 7.2 7.0 5.4 5.0 6.4 5.8 6.0 6.7 5.9 7.5 4-87 7.1 6.9 5.5 5.2 6.4 5.9 6.1 6.6 6.0 6.8 6.5 1-88 6.4 6.2 4.8 4.5 5.5 4.9 4.9 5.1 4.5 4.2 2.7 -0.8 2-88 6.4 6.2 5.0 4.7 5.5 5.1 5.1 5.5 4.7 4.7 5.9 2.7 6.2 888.9 906.9 916.8 955.2 947.5 945.7 960.1 5-88 5.9 5.7 4.5 4.2 4.9 4.4 4.4 4.4 5.8 5.6 2.7 1.6 2.7 -0.6 4-88 7.0 6.9 5.9 5.7 6.5 6.2 6.4 6.7 6.4 6.8 6.6 6.7 9.4 11.0 958.6 1*011.4 25.9 1*016.0 1-89 6.7 6.5 5.6 5.4 6.1 5.8 5.9 6.1 5.8 6.0 5.8 5.7 7.4 7.8 12.5 1.8 2-89 6.7 6.5 5.7 5.5 6.2 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.0 6.2 6.0 5.9 7.5 7.6 10.5 4.4 6.9 5-89 6.4 6.5 5.5 5.5 5.9 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.6 5.7 5.5 5.4 6.5 6.5 8.4 5.6 4.6 2.2 4-89 6.5 6.4 5.6 5.4 6.0 5.8 5.8 6.0 5.8 5.9 5.8 5.7 6.6 6.7 8 .2 4.6 5.6 4.9 7.7 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 1*055.2 1*058.9 1*058.5 IN IT IA L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST* LOUIS MARCH 28» 1990 G O V E R N M E N T P U R C H A S E S O F G O O D S A N D S E R V I C E S EM 1982 D O L L A R S (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 IN IT IA L QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 2-85 6.5 5-85 15.0 19.8 4-85 9.0 10.5 1.6 1-86 5.5 5.1 -1.5 -4.5 2-86 6.5 6.2 2.0 2.5 9.5 5-86 5.6 5.4 2.1 2.2 5.8 4-86 5.6 5.4 2.8 5.1 5.8 5.9 5.8 1-87 4.9 4.7 2.4 2.5 4.4 2.7 5.0 0.5 2-87 4.5 4.0 1.9 2.0 5.5 1.8 1.7 -0.5 -0.9 5-87 4.5 4.0 2.2 2.5 5.5 2.5 2.4 1.5 1.8 4.5 4-87 4.5 4.1 2.5 2.6 5.6 2.7 2.8 2.1 2.7 4.5 4.5 1-88 5.2 2.9 1.5 1.5 2.1 1.0 0.9 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -2.1 -8.5 2-88 5.5 5.0 1.6 1.6 2.5 1.4 1.5 0.6 0.7 1.0 -0.1 -2.5 BILLIO N S OF DOLLARS 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 716.7 749.8 752.7 744.1 761.2 2.1 765.2 776.0 776.6 774.9 785.5 792.1 775.1 4.1 785.0 5-88 2.8 2.5 1.1 1.1 1.7 0.9 0.7 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -1.0 -2.7 0.2 -5.6 4-88 5.6 5.4 2.5 2.5 5.0 2.5 2.4 1.9 2.2 2.7 2.5 1.8 5.4 6.1 16.7 1-89 5.2 5.0 1.9 1.9 2.4 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.4 0.8 5.2 2.9 6.2 -5.5 2-89 5.5 5.1 2.1 2.1 2.7 2.1 2.1 1.7 1.9 2.5 1.9 1.5 5.6 5.5 6.0 1.0 775.9 806.4 799.7 5.4 810.5 5-89 5.0 2.8 1.8 1.8 2.5 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.4 0.9 2.6 2.5 5.8 -0.2 1.4 -2.4 4-89 5.0 2.8 1.8 1.9 2.5 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.5 l.l 2.6 2.5 5.5 0.5 1.8 0.0 2.6 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4—88 1-89 2-89 5-89 805.5 810.4 INITIAL QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MARCH 28» 1990 17 D I S P O S A B L E P E R S O N A L I N C O M E IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 IN IT IA L QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 2-85 15.1 5-85 5.5 -1.5 4-85 6.6 5.5 8.6 1-86 7.0 5.1 8.6 8.5 2-86 6.9 5.5 7.9 7.5 6.5 5-86 6.2 4.8 6.5 5.8 4.4 2.4 4-86 6.0 4.9 6.2 5.7 4.7 5.8 5.5 1-87 6.6 5.7 7.0 6.7 6.2 6.1 8.0 10.8 2-87 5.8 4.9 5.9 5.4 4.8 4.4 5.0 4.9 -0.6 5-87 6.5 5.6 6.5 6.2 5.9 5.7 6.6 7.0 5.2 11.5 4-87 6.9 6.5 7.2 7.0 6.8 6.8 7.7 8.4 7.6 11.9 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 2 »850.7 2»840.0 2*899.5 2.959.2 5*006.5 5.024.5 5.065.4 5.142.8 5.158.1 5.225.5 12.4 5.519.4 1-88 6.9 6.5 7.2 7.0 6.8 6.9 7.6 8.1 7.4 10.5 9.7 7.0 2-88 6.9 6.4 7.2 7.0 6.9 6.9 7.6 8.0 7.4 9.5 8.9 7.1 7.2 5-88 7.1 6.6 7.5 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.8 8.1 7.7 9.4 8.9 7.8 8.2 9.1 4-88 7.2 6.8 7.5 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.9 8.2 7.9 9.5 8.9 8.1 8.4 9.0 8.9 1-89 7.5 7.1 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.7 8.5 8.6 8.5 9.7 9.4 8.8 9.5 10.0 10.4 11.9 2-89 7.4 7.1 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.6 8.1 8.4 8.1 9.5 9.0 8.4 8.7 9.1 9.1 9.1 6.5 5-89 7.4 7.0 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.5 8.0 8.2 8.0 9.0 8.7 8.1 8.5 8.5 8.4 8.2 6.5 6.5 4-89 7.5 7.0 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.5 7.9 8.1 7.9 8.8 8.5 8 .0 8.1 8.5 8.1 7.9 6.6 6.7 7.0 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 5.576.4 5.455.9 5»511.7 5 »587.4 5.689.5 5.747.7 5.806.8 5.871.5 IN IT IA L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MARCH 28» 1990 D IS P O S A B L E P E R S O N A L IN C O M E IN 1982 D O L L A R S (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 IN IT IA L QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 BILLION S OF DOLLARS 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 2.565.5 2-85 8.9 5-85 2.1 -4.5 4-85 2.8 -0.1 4.4 2.555.4 2.562.8 2.609.2 1-86 4.0 2.4 5.9 7.4 2-86 4.4 5.5 6.0 6.8 6.2 5-86 5.4 2.3 4.0 5.9 2.2 -1.7 4-86 5.1 2.1 5.5 5.5 1.9 -0.2 2.648.6 2*657.5 2*646.2 1.4 1-87 5.2 2.4 5.6 5.4 2.4 1.2 2.7 4.0 2-87 2.2 1.3 2.2 1.8 0.7 -0.6 -0.2 -1.0 2.672.5 -5.8 2.652.5 5—87 2.6 1.9 2.7 2.5 1.7 0.8 1.5 1.5 0.2 6.7 4-87 5.1 2.5 5.5 5.1 2.5 1.9 2.7 5.0 2.7 7.2 7.8 1-88 5.2 2.7 5.4 3.3 2.8 2.5 5.0 5.5 5.2 6.4 6.2 4.6 2-88 5.1 2.7 5.5 3.2 2.7 2.5 2.9 5.2 5.0 5.5 4.9 5.5 2.4 5-88 5.2 2.8 5.4 3.4 3.0 2.6 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.5 4.9 5.9 5.6 4.9 4-88 5.5 2.9 5.5 3.4 3.1 2.8 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.1 4.8 4.0 5.8 4.6 4.5 1-89 3.5 3.2 5.7 3.7 5.4 5.1 5.6 5.9 5.8 5.5 5.1 4.5 4.5 5.2 5.4 6.6 2-89 5.4 3.0 5.5 3.5 5.2 2.9 5.4 5.6 5.5 4.7 4.5 5.9 5.8 4.1 5.9 5.7 0.8 5-89 5.4 5.1 5.6 3.5 5.5 5.0 5.4 5.6 5.6 4.7 4.5 4.0 5.9 4.2 4.0 5.9 2.6 4.4 4-89 5.4 5.1 5.5 3.5 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.5 5.5 4.5 4.2 5.8 5.7 5.9 5.7 5.6 2.6 5.4 2.4 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 2.675.6 2.726.2 2.757.2 2.775.5 2.806.4 2.855.9 2.881.7 2.887.6 2*919.2 2,956.9 INITIAL QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MARCH 28» 1990 18 C O R P O R A T E PROFITS AFTER TAXES ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER BILLIONS OF DOLLARS INITIAL QUARTER 2-85 1-85 2-85 4.6 5-85 10.7 17.1 4-85 15.7 18.5 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 1-88 4-87 5-87 2-88 5-88 4-88 2-89 1-89 ANNUAL RATES 5-89 124.2 129.2 19.9 155.2 1-86 -8.1 -11.9 -25.6 -51.4 2-86 -7.6 -10.5 -18.1 -52.4 -5 9 5-86 -5.8 -5.4 -10.5 -18.6 5 4 18.0 4-86 -0.8 -1.7 -5.1 -10.5 7 18.4 18.8 1-87 5.4 5.5 1.1 -2.5 16 4 24.9 28.5 59.1 2-87 5.8 5.9 4.4 2.1 18 4 25.4 27.9 52.7 26.7 5-87 7.8 8.2 7.1 5.4 19 9 25.9 28.0 51.2 27.4 28.1 4-87 7.5 7.5 6.5 4.9 17 1 21.5 22.2 25.1 18.1 14.1 112.9 111.2 115.9 121.0 151.4 159.4 148.5 148.9 1.6 1-88 9.2 9.6 8.9 7.7 19 0 25.1 25.9 25.0 21.7 20.1 16.5 55.0 2-88 9.9 10.4 9.8 8.8 19 0 22.5 25.2 25.9 21.1 19.7 17.1 25.6 159.9 166.9 18.7 5-88 10.5 10.8 10.5 9.4 18 7 21.8 22.2 22.7 20.2 19.0 16.8 22.5 17.5 16.0 4-88 10.0 10.4 9.9 9.1 17 4 20.1 20.5 20.5 18.0 16.6 14.5 17.9 15.5 10.7 175.2 175.6 5.7 1-89 9.0 9.5 8.8 8.0 15 4 17.6 17.5 17.4 14.9 15.4 11.1 15.1 8.6 5.4 2-89 6.6 6.7 6.1 5.1 11 6 15.2 12.7 12.1 9.5 7.5 4.8 5.4 0.6 -5.5 5-89 4.9 4.9 4.2 5.2 9 10.2 9.6 8.8 6.1 4.0 1.4 1.3 -5.2 -7.0 -12.0 -17.2 -22.9 -19.9 4-89 5.5 5.5 4.6 5.8 1 10.5 9.7 9.0 6.6 4.8 2.5 2.6 -1.1 -4.1 -7.7 -10.8 -12.8 -5.4 11.8 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 2-89 5-89 IN IT IA L -4.5 175.6 -9.2 -15.8 -25.8 161.1 0.5 4-88 1-89 152.4 156.7 Q UARTER PREPARED BY F E K R A L RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS M ARCH » , H IS T O N A T IO N A L E s t i m o f C u r r e n t J u N I P A l y r e s p T h e B u 1 9 8 6 , e N a t e s t a b l e s s i n J u n r l y t h e r D a t a 1 9 8 7 E s t i m a l In c o m e F o r W e a l t h D e p a r t m e n t f u r t h D o f e r n C o m m r i n a r e 1 9 8 3 , J u l y f o r I P A P r o d u c t O F P R O D U C T t h e r e g A C C O U N T S u l a r p u b l i s h e d 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 8 N S O U R C E S a n d S u r v e y s e r i e s A c c o u n t « q i n u a r t e r l y t h e 1 9 8 5 D A T A J u a r e p o f C f o r 1 9 2 9 - 8 2 o u r r e n t f t h e w r i t e U n p l y u t a t i o n S u r v e y b l i s h e d B u i n o f t h e s i n e s s , a r e i t e d r e s e n 1 9 8 9 p u b l i s h e d S t a t e i n s . T a b L w » i n f o r m i v i s i o f o a n d a n d A N D s e r i e s a t e s 1 9 2 9 - 8 ? . ; ____ s t a t i s t i c a l a n d IN C O M E 1 9 8 6 - 8 9 :1 1 e s s . c t i v e l y . a t i o f o f o R IC A L 1 **0 a t i o n ( B E - 5 4 ) , e r c e , W a n d p r i c e s , B u r e a u o f a s h i n g t o n , D . C . 19 E c o n o m ic 2 0 2 3 0 . t o A t h e n N a l y s i s , a t i o U n a l . S . In c o m e INVENTORIES COMPARED WITH MONTHLY MANUFACTURING AND TRADE SALES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1 .7 2 72 1 .6 8 68 64 64 60 60 56 56 52 52 48 48 44 44 40 40 36 36 1976 19 7 7 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 SOURCE: U.S.DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE * BEG INNING IN 1982, INVENTORY DATA REFLECT CHANGES IN ESTIMATION PROCEDURES. SHADED AREAS REPRESENT PERIODS OF BUSINESS RECESSIONS. LATEST DATA PLOTTED; JANUARY PRELIMINARY PREPARED 20 BY FED ER AL R ES ER VE BANK OF S T. LO U IS
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