Full text of National Economic Trends : April 1987
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National Economic Trends April 1 9 8 7 Real GNP grew at a 4.3 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 1987, according to preliminary estimates released by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Such rapid growth typically suggests an acceleration in the pace of economic ac tivity. On closer examination, however, the first-quarter performance appears to be an inventory reaction to developments in preceding quarters. When the second half of 1986 and the first quarter of 1987 are viewed together, real GNP grew at a 2.7 percent rate, little different from the 2.5 percent rate over the previous two years. The accompanying table indicates that real final sales (GNP less inventory change) have slowed in recent quarters. Furthermore, the composition of final sales growth has changed. All components of final sales have slowed, except for real net exports, which have contributed positively to final sales growth. With exports accelerating and imports slowing, real net exports increased to -$134.2 billion at an annual rate in the first quarter from a -$153.9 billion rate three quarters earlier. Some of this increase might prove to be temporary, but it suggests that the depreciation of the dollar might be having its expected effect. Real Final Sales and Its Components (compounded annual rates of change) 11/1986 to 1/1987 Final sales Personal consumption expenditures Residential fixed investment Nonresidential fixed investment Federal purchases State and local purchases Net exports Exports Imports 11/1984 to 11/1986 3.1 3.5 5.5 4.4 5.4 4.0 2.1 1.9 2.3 -4 .2 1.4 3.7 9.1 - 1.0 6.3 1.2 —Keith M. Carlson views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve system. T OT A L C I V I L I A N EMPLOYMENT____ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL K A T E S OF CHANCE IN ITIAL T ERMI NAL MriMTrf 8-85 9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85 1-8 6 2-86 3-8 6 4-86 THOUSANDS OF PERSONS MONTH 6-86 5-86 7-86 8 -86 9-86 10 -8 6 11-8 6 1 2 —66 5.3 10-85 3.7 2.1 11-85 3.2 2.1 12-85 2.9 2.0 2.0 1.9 1-66 4.0 3.6 + .1 5.2 8 .6 2-85 2.7 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 -3.6 2-87 107,91^ 2 .1 t0i,l49 108,892 106,557 1 06*807 3-85 2.7 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.5 -0.5 2.8 4-86 2.6 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 0.3 2.3 1.8 5-86 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 0.8 2.3 2.0 6-85 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 1.6 2.9 3.0 3.6 5.0 7-85 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 1.8 3.0 3.0 3.4 4.0 108,969 109,165 2.2 109,613 109,887 3.0 4 o o 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 1.9 2.8 2.8 3.1 3.3 2.5 9-85 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 1.5 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.3 1.4 0.5 -0.9 10-85 2 .% 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 1.6 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.3 1.6 l.l 0.7 2.3 1.5 1.3 2.5 2.6 CO 8 -8 6 2.0 109,987 110,192 i 16,442 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 1.7 2.3 2.2 2.3 12-85 2.* 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 1.7 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.6 2.4 2.4 2.3 1-87 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 1.9 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.8 3.0 3.2 4.1 2-87 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.1 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.4 3.1 3.3 3.5 4.1 • 11-95 3-87 1-87 107,602 9-85 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 1.9 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 8-85 9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85 1-8 6 2-86 3-86 4 —86 * -8 6 INITIAL 110,637 111,0 11 4.1 111,362 111,368 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 1.9 - 0 .2 6-8 6 7-86 6-8 6 9-86 10-96 11-8 6 12-8 6 i-97 2-87 MONTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL AP R I L 3* 1987 RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS ____________PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT___ _______ C3MPOJHDEO ANNUAL RAT ES Of CHANCE INITIAL T ERMI NAL MCMiTrt 8-8 9-85 10-65 11-85 12-65 1-8 6 2-86 3-86 4-86 T HOUSANDS OF PERSONS MONTH 6-8 6 5-86 7-86 8 -8 6 9-86 10-86 11-66 12-66 1-87 2-67 98,1*8 9-85 3. 10-85 3. 3.7 11-85 3. 3.3 2.9 12-85 3. 3.2 3.0 98,4*6 M ttlO 3.0 *4,29* 1-86 3. 3.6 3.6 3.9 4.8 2-86 3. 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.2 1.6 3-86 2. 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.3 l.l 0.7 99,484 4-86 2. 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.0 2.2 3.7 5-86 2. 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 1.9 2.0 2.6 1.6 6-8 6 2. 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.3 1.3 1.5 0.4 7-86 2. 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.6 1.9 1.3 1.1 3.2 8-86 2. 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.5 1.5 2.7 2.2 9-86 2. 2.3 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.2 1.9 1.9 2.9 2.8 3.4 2.5 2.4 99,783 99,918 -0.9 99,843 100,105 100,283 100,560 10 -8 6 2. 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.2 3.0 2.9 3.3 3.2 11-85 2. 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.2 2.3 3.0 2.9 3.2 3.1 2.9 12-85 2. 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.3 2.4 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.1 1-87 2. 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.6 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.4 2-87 2. 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.6 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 2.8 3-87 2. 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.4 1.9 8-8 9-85 1 0-65 11-65 12-85 1-66 2-66 3-66 h z ltL 6-66 7-86 8-86 9-86 10-66 11-86 12 -6 6 1-87 2-87 . INITIAL P- 100,826 t 6 t , 6 £S 101,322 3.7 101,626 101,862P 102,026P MONTH PI ELf Ml N UUL MEPARED FEDERAL RESERVE BANK O f AP R I L 3* 1987 2 ST. LOUIS EMPLOYMENT RATIO RATIO SCALE M I L L IONS OF M I L L I ONS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED PERSONS SOURCE: OF U .S .D EP A RT M E NT SCALE PERSONS OF LABOR B E G I N N I N G JA NU A RY 1 9 8 6 , TO TA L EMPLOYMENT DATA I NCO RP OR AT E N E * PROCEDURES FOR E S T I M A T I N G MEASURES OF I M M I G R A T I O N AND E M I G R A T I O N I N C R E A S I N G TO TA L EMPLOYMENT BY ABOUT 0 . 3 X . P ER CE N TAG ES ARE ANNUAL LATEST DATA P L O T T E D : RA TE S OF CHANGE FOR P E R IO D S IN DICATED. MARCH P R E L I M I N A R Y PRE PAR ED BY F E DE RA L UNEMPLOYMENT PERCENT SEASONALLY RES ERV E BANK OF S T . LO U IS RAT E ADJUSTED PERCENT 12.0 11 . 11.0 10. 10.0 9. 9.0 8.0 7. 7.0 6. 6.0 5. 5.0 4. 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 S O URCE: PER CENT OF C I V I L I A N LATEST DA TA P L O T T E D : U .S . 1986 1987 DE PART MENT OF LABOR LABO R FORCE MARCH PRE PAR ED BY FE DE RA L 3 RE SER VE BANK OF S T . L O U IS 4.0 CONSUMÈ* P R IC E I NO EX FOR A LL URBAN CONSUMERS* S EAS O N ALLY A D JU S TE D ________________ CONGOUHOED ANNUAL R A TE S O f C H A N C E __________________________ T E R N I NAL________________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L NONTH_________________________________________________________________________ 1 9 6 7 « 1 0 0 NONTH 1-87 2-87 6-8 6 2-86 9 - 85 10-85 11-85 12-85 3-86 4-86 5-86 7-86 9 - 8 6 10 -8 6 1 1 -8 6 12-B6 9- 8 6 1-8 6 1.5 323.7 10-85 3.0 324.9 11-85 4. 1 5.5 6.5 12-85 4.0 4.9 5. 1 3.7 1-8 6 4.1 4.7 4.8 3.9 2-86 2.8 3.1 2.7 1.5 0.4 -3.2 3-86 1.7 1.7 1.2 - 0 .1 -1.3 -3.9 -4.7 4-86 l.l 1.0 0.4 -0.7 - 1.8 -3.7 -4.0 -3.3 9-85 4.5 326.6 327.6 3 28.7 4.1 327.8 3 26.5 325.6 326.4 5-86 1.3 1.3 0 .8 - 0 .1 -0.9 - 2 .1 -1.7 - 0 .2 3.0 6-8 6 1.7 1.7 1.3 0 .6 0 .1 -0.7 0.0 1.6 4.1 5.3 7-86 1.6 1.6 1.2 0 .6 0 .2 -0.5 0 .1 1.3 2.9 2.8 8-86 1.6 1.6 1.3 0.7 0.4 - 0 .2 0.4 1.4 2.6 2.5 1.1 1.8 9-86 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.8 1.8 2.8 2.8 2.0 2.8 3.7 10-8 6 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.7 2.7 2.0 2.6 3.0 327.8 327.9 0.4 328.4 329.4 330.0 2 .2 330.0 11-8 6 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.3 l.l 0 .8 1.2 2.0 2.8 2.7 2.2 2.7 3.0 2.6 2.9 12-8 6 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.2 0.9 1.3 2.0 2.7 2.6 2.2 2.6 2.8 2.5 2.6 2.2 1-87 2.2 2.3 2. 1 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.9 2.6 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.5 3.8 3.9 4.4 5.2 8.3 5.2 331.4 3 33.6 335.0 2-87 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.8 2.2 2.8 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.7 4.1 4.1 4.6 5.2 6.7 3-87 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.4 3.0 3.6 3.7 3.5 3.9 4.2 4.3 4.7 5.2 6 .2 5.1 5.1 8-85 9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85 1-8 6 2-86 3-86 4-86 5-86 6-8 6 7-86 4-86 <>-06 1 0 - 0 6 11-06 12-6 6 1-07 2-87 33«.4 EffEFAR~EÜ~BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . L O U I S A P R I L 2 4 » 1987_____________ _ _ __________________________ PRODUCER P RI CE I N D E X » F I N I S H E D GOOOS - S E AS ONAL L Y AD J US T E D* ___________________COHPOUNDEO ANNUAL RAT ES Of CHANCE___________________ TERNI MAL________________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L NONTH_________________________________________________________________________ 1967 MONTH 1-87 2-87 7-86 4 -8 6 6-86 8-8 6 9 - 8 6 10-06 11-06 12-06 1-8 6 2-86 5-86 3-86 8-85 9 - 85 1 0- 85 11- 85 12-85 291.7 9-85 -7.9 10-85 0.4 9.4 11-85 2.6 8.3 7.2 293.9 295.6 297.0 12- 85 3.4 7.5 6.5 5.8 1-8 6 1.8 4.4 2.7 0 .6 -4.4 2-86 -1.5 - 0 .2 -2.4 -5.4 - 10 .6 -16.5 3-86 - 2.8 -1 .9 -4.0 - 6 .6 -1 0.5 -13.4 *-86 -3.2 -2.5 -4.4 -6.5 —9 . 4 295.9 - 11. 0 291.5 - 10 .2 - 8 .1 288.9 - 6 .1 OD • tr 6-86 287.4 2 88.8 6.0 - 1.8 - 1.0 -2.3 -3.6 - 1.8 -1.3 -2.3 -3.3 -5. 1 -5.2 - 2.1 0.7 4.2 2.5 -4.4 - 2.2 -0.5 0.9 -0.7 -2.3 289.4 7-86 8 -86 2B7.2 4.7 288.3 9-86 -1.4 -0.9 - 1.8 - 2.6 *3® 5 -3.4 -1.4 0 .1 1.4 0.3 -0.4 4.0 3.4 10-86 - 1.1 -0.5 -1.3 - 2.0 .2 g - 2.6 -0.7 0.7 1.9 1.1 0.7 4.1 3.8 4.2 11-8 6 - 1.0 ^0.4 - 1.2 - 1.8 5 -2.3 - 0 .6 0.7 1.7 1.0 0.7 3.2 2.7 2.3 0.4 12-86 - 1.0 -0.5 - 1.2 - 1.» - 2 .2 -0.7 0.5 1.3 0.7 0.3 2.3 1.7 l.l -0.4 - 1.2 1-87 -0.5 0 .0 —0 . 6 -l .l * 1 ♦6 -1.4 O.l 1.2 2.0 1.5 1.4 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.2 3.1 7.7 2-87 -0.4 0 .0 -0.5 - 1.0 • 1 •5 - 1.2 0 .1 1.1 1.9 1.4 1.3 2.8 2.5 2.3 1.9 2.4 4.2 0 .8 3-87 - 0. 1 0.3 - 0 .2 - 0 .6 - 1.0 - 0 .0 0.5 1.5 2.2 1.8 1.8 3.2 2.9 2.9 2.6 3.1 4.6 3.1 5.5 8-85 9-85 10-85 1 1-85 12—85 1-8 6 2 —86 3-86 4-86 5-86 6 -86 7-86 •-06 9-06 10-06 11-06 12-04 1-87 2-07 »DATA 100 FOR FOUR MONTHS ACO R E V I S E D T O R E F L E C T L A T E 289.1 290.1 290.2 209.9 291.7 291.9 293.2 R E P OR T I NG H W fA ftfö i V F fB E tA L RESERVE BANK O f S T . LO UIS A P R IL 4 IO t 1 987___________________________________ RAT I 0 PR I CE S SCALE I 967-100 SEASONALLY CON SU ME R P R I C E I N D E X C P I - U D A TA B E G I N N I N G ARE A N NUA L LATES T PLOTTEDi RATES OF CH A NC E for P E R IO D S PRODUCER PERCENTAGES ARE PLOTTED: Data FOR HOM EO»N ER SHIP COSTS . MARCH SCALE LATES T M EA SU R E IN D IC A TE D . PREPARED RAT I 0 SCALE 1967- 100 I S FOR A L L U R BA N CO N SU ME R S ( C P I - U ) . 1 9 8 3 IN CORPORATE A RENTAL E Q UIV AL EN CE PERCENTAGES D A TA RATIO ADJUSTED A NNUA L RATES OF CHANGE BY F E D E R A L RE SERV E BANK OF PRICES FOR P E R I O D S ST. LOUIS RATIO SCALE IN D IC A T E D march PREPARED 5 BY FEDERAL R ES E R V E BANK Of ST LOUIS PRODUCE* PRICE INDEX» F IN IS H EO CONSUMER FOODS - SEASONALLY ADJUSTED* ____________________ CONPOUNPgQ ANNUAL RATES OP CHANCE__________________________ « 100 <6 1 m T ERMI NAL__________________________________________________ _____________________ I N I T I A L MONTH_________________________________________________________________________ I 9 6 T MONTH 1-87 2-87 8—86 9 - 8 6 1 0 - 8 6 1 1 - 8 6 1 2 - 8 6 6 -8 6 3-86 4-8 6 5 -8 6 8-85 9 - 8 5 10-85 11-85 12-85 2-86 1-8 6 266.4 9-85 - 10 .2 10-85 3.2 18.5 11-85 7.2 17.1 15 7 12-85 8 •1 15.0 13 3 4.4 8.4 0.9 3.3 3-86 l.l 3.1 4-86 1.6 5-86 3.3 6-86 2T3.5 275.9 11.1 5 3 273.7 -9.2 -5.0 - 12.2 -15.1 0 3 -3.3 -7.6 —6 . 8 3.4 I - 1.6 -4.5 -2.9 5.2 4 1.5 -0.3 3.2 4.8 2 1.5 0 .0 1.9 7-86 4.4 6 .0 7 3.4 2.3 5.5 7.0 9 4.9 4.2 <r> I 0.4 2 CD 1-8 6 2-86 270.2 -0 8 .2 9.6 4.4 8.7 10.4 12.1 9.3 17.3 6 .2 10 .2 11.9 13.6 12.1 1 7.7 283.5 8.7 11.2 8 .2 - 0 .8 11.3 9.3 5.2 11.6 5.1 7.6 8.3 8.7 7.2 8.4 6 .2 2.6 4.3 3.0 4.2 6.3 6 .8 6.9 5.4 6 .0 3.9 0 .6 l.l -3.7 -4.9 1.0 1.9 3.6 3.8 3.6 1.9 1.9 -0.4 -3.8 -4.5 -9.3 -12.5 -19.5 0 .6 1.3 2.9 2.9 2.7 1.1 1.0 - 1.2 -4.0 -4.7 -8.4 - 10 .2 - 12.8 -5.5 1.5 -0.3 - 2.6 -2.9 -5.6 -6.4 -6.9 0 .2 6 .2 6-8 6 7-86 8-86 9-86 10 -8 6 11-8 6 12-8 6 1-87 2-87 11-8 6 4.9 6 .1 1 4.3 3.7 12-86 4.2 5.3 4 3.6 1-87 2.7 3.5 6 1.7 2-87 2.2 3.0 1 1.2 5.3 1.5 0.9 1.7 3.1 3.2 3.0 1.6 1 0 - 85 1 1 - 8 5 12-85 1-8 6 2-86 3-86 4-86 5-86 FOR FOUR MONTHS ACO R E V I S E D 279.6 18.1 9.3 4.4 3 275.9 1.8 10 .6 3.6 5.0 ♦ PAT*, 6.7 275.5 10.7 4.3 8 9-85 18.1 9.7 3 6.7 8-85 5.5 11.6 10 .0 6.3 5.4 3.2 271.7 3.8 8.4 8.6 5.0 2.4 270.5 2.2 9.0 9-86 10 -8 6 3-87 2 70.0 TO REFLECT L AT E 2 83.3 285.9 2 85.3 -2.5 284.1 2 79.0 277.7 279.1 R E P ORT I NG M E P A R E O BY F E D E R A L R T S E R V E BANK OF S T . L U U I S AP R I L 10» 1987_____________________________________________ PROOUC 6 R P R I C E 1 NDEX* F I N I S H E D COOOS» E XC L U D I NG FOOOS - SEASONALLY AD J U S T E D * _____________________________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RAT ES OF CHANCE_________________________________ T ERMI NAL________________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L MONTH__________________________________________________________________________1967 « MONTH 1- 87 2-87 8 -86 9 - 8 6 10 -8 6 1 1 -8 6 1 2 -8 6 6-8 6 7-86 3-86 4-86 5-86 1-8 6 2-86 9 - 85 1 0 - 8 5 1 1 - 8 5 1 2 - 8 5 8-85 298.0 9-85 -7.0 10-85 - 0.6 2 11-85 1.3 8 5.3 12-85 1.9 I 4.5 I 2.0 0.4 1.0 299.5 300.8 301.7 3.7 301.0 -2.7 296.4 2-86 -2.3 3 -3.1 -5.7 - 10 .1 -16.9 3-86 -4.0 -3 5 -5.4 -7.9 -11.4 -15.4 -14.0 4-86 -4.7 -4 4 - 6 .0 - 8 .2 -10.9 -13.5 -11.7 -9.4 5-86 -3.9 -3 6 -4.9 -6.5 -8.4 -9.7 -7.2 -3.6 6-86 -3.3 9 —4 . 0 -5.2 - 6 .6 -7.4 -4.9 - 1.6 2.5 2.5 I g» 1-8 6 -4.6 -4 4 -5.5 - 6 .8 - 8 .2 -9.0 -7.4 -5.6 —4 . 3 -7.6 -16.7 8-86 -4.2 .3 9 -4.9 - 6 .0 -7.1 -7.7 - 6. 1 -4.5 -3.2 -5 .0 -8.5 0.4 9-86 -3.5 .3 2 -4.0 -4.9 -5.8 -6.2 —4 . 6 -2.9 - 1.6 - 2.6 —4 . 2 2.7 5.1 10 -8 6 -3.2 «2 9 -3.6 -4.3 -5.1 -5.4 -3.8 -2.3 - 1.0 -1.7 - 2.8 2.4 3.4 1.7 11-8 6 - 2.8 _2 5 -3.1 -3.8 —4 . 5 -4 .6 -3.2 -1.7 - 0 .6 - 1.1 -l.t 2.3 3.0 1.9 2.1 12-8 6 -2.7 4 -3.0 -3.6 -4.1 —4 . 3 -2.9 - 1.6 - 0 .6 - 1.0 - 1.6 1.8 2.1 1.1 0.8 -0.4 1 - 1.6 - 2.1 -2.5 -2.5 -l.l 0.3 1.5 1.3 1.2 4.5 5.3 5.4 6.7 9.0 19.4 292.7 290.3 2 90.9 2.5 291.5 287.1 287.2 288.4 288.8 289.3 289.2 293.5 1-87 -1.5 2-87 -1.2 -0 9 -1.3 -1.8 - 2.1 -2.1 -0.7 0 .6 1.« 1.5 1.4 4.3 4.9 4.9 5.7 6.9 10.8 2.9 3-87 -0.9 -0 6 -1.0 -1.3 -1.7 -1.6 —0 . 3 0.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 4.4 4.9 4.9 5.6 6.5 8.9 3.9 U -% 9 l-i& 2 -8 * ~> -* l 4 -* * 8 -8 6 »-§ 6 1 0 -* & ll-* 6 1 2 -8 6 1 -1 7 ----------------------8 - 8 ^ 100 1 6 -6 3 lt -M 294.2 5.0 2 95.4 2 - 8 7--------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I N I T I A L "PWWTH------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------» D A T A FOR FOUR MONTHS ACO R E V I S E D T O R E F L E C T L A T E R E P OR T I NG__________ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P R C R A R C » »▼ K K R A L R ESER VE B A M O F S I . L O U IS ___ ___________ ___________ __________________________________________________________________________ A P R I L 10* I W _______________________________ 6 INDUSTRIAL RATIO PRODUCTION SCALE RATIO 1977-100 135 SCALE 1977-100 135 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 130 130 *i — 125 + 1 20 125 * ' exÆ k r 1 15 26 .7 / 120 / ! + J. t 15 +Q. 9X * 1 10 1 10 / -13. 6 z y 105 /7 - I t f. 9r \ l \ 105 n 100 100 95 * \ 90 t 1979 $ % % $ Ü ♦ * ♦ 1 < $ 3 ♦ . 1980 ^ ^ ^ § il i !.. 1981 1982 t 1983 P ER CE N TAG ES ARE ANNU AL RA TE S OF CHANGE FOR P E R IO D S LATEST DA TA P LO TT E D« 95 t 1984 1985 1986 90 1987 IN D IC A T E D . MARCH P R E L I M I N A R Y PRE PAR ED BY F E DE RA L RE SER VE BANK OF S T . LO U IS INOUSTRIAL PRODUCTION ___________________________ COWPOUffOED ANNUAL RATES O f CHANGE__________________________________ 1977 » I N I T I A L HONTH 100 NONTH 8-85 9-85 10-05 lt-05 12-05 1-06 2-06 3-86 4-06 5-06 6-06 7-06 8-06 9-06 1 0 — S6 1 1 - 0 6 12-06 1-07 2-07 124*3 9— 85 - 1.0 10-85 -3.8 - 6 .6 11-85 1.3 2.4 12.3 12-85 2.9 4.2 10 .1 0 .0 1-8 6 3.5 4.7 0.7 6.9 5.9 2-86 1.5 1.9 4.2 1.6 -1.4 - 0 .2 123.6 124.0 1 25.6 126.2 125.3 1 23.6 3-86 - 1.1 - 1.1 0 .0 -2.9 —6 . 2 -11.7 -15.1 V—86 0.4 0 .6 1.8 - 0 .2 - 2 .1 -4.7 - 2.0 11.2 5-86 - 0 .2 -C.l 0 .8 - 1.0 -2.7 -4.7 -3.5 2.9 -4.7 6—86 - 0 .2 - 0 .1 0.7 - 0 .8 - 2 .2 -3.0 - 2.6 2.0 -2.4 0 .0 7-86 0.4 0 .6 1.4 0 .1 - 1.0 - 2.0 - 0 .0 3.2 0 .6 3.4 7.0 8 -86 0 .6 0.7 1.5 0.3 - 0 .6 -1.5 -0.3 2.9 1.0 2.9 4.4 1.9 124.7 124.2 124.2 124*9 125.1 124*9 9-86 0.4 0.5 1.1 0 .1 -0 .7 -1.5 -0.5 2 .1 0.4 1.7 2.3 0 .0 -1.9 10 -8 6 0 .6 0.7 1.4 0.4 -0.3 -0.9 0 .0 2.4 1.0 2 .1 2.7 1.3 1.0 11-8 6 1.0 1.2 1.8 1.0 0.3 - 0 .2 0.7 2.9 1.0 2.9 3.5 2.7 2.9 5.4 6.9 12-8 6 1.4 1.5 2 .1 1.4 0.9 0.4 1.3 3.4 2.4 3.5 4.1 3.5 3.9 5.9 6.9 6.9 1-87 1.2 1.3 1.9 1.2 0.7 0 .2 1.0 2.0 1.9 2.0 3.2 2.6 2.7 3.9 3.9 2.4 -1.9 2-87 1.4 1.6 2.1 1.5 1.0 0.7 1.4 3.1 2.3 3.1 3.5 3.0 3.2 4.3 4.4 3.5 1.9 5.0 3-87 1.2 1.3 1.8 l.l 0.7 0.3 1.0 2.5 1.0 2.4 2.7 2.2 2.2 2.9 2.7 1.7 0 .0 1.0 -3.7 8-85 9-85 10-05 11-05 12-05 1-06 2-06 3-06 4-86 5-06 6-06 7-06 0-06 9-06 10-06 11— 06 1 2 - 0 6 1-07 2-47 125.3 3.9 126.0 126.7 126.5 1 27 .IP 1 2 6 . 7P P - P t E L IN IN A K T M E P à R fd §V EtftERAt T E SERVE RAMÉTTÏF 5 T . LO UIS A P R IL 7 15» I f f ? _____________________________________________ PERSONAL RATIO SCALE TRILLIONS I NCOME RATIO MONTHLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES OF DOLLARS TRILLIONS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED OF SCALE DOLLARS 4.0 3.8 3.6 3 3.4 3. 3.2 3 3.0 . 2.8 2. 2.6 2. 2.4 2 . 2.2 2 . 2.0 I . 2 I .8 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 SOU RCE t P E R CE N TA C ES ARE ANNU AL RA TE S OF CHANCE FOR P E R IO D S LATEST DATA P L O T T E D t U .S . 1986 1987 DE PART MENT OF COMHERCE IN D IC A T E D . MARCH P R E L I M I N A R Y PREPA RE D BY FE DE RA L RE S ERV E BANK OF S T . LO U IS PERSONAL I » C OHE COHPOUHOED ANNUAL R AT E S Of CHANCE INITIAL TERMI NAL MONTH 8-85 9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85 1-8 6 2-86 3-86 4-86 5-86 6-8 6 5.0 10-85 7.0 9.1 11-85 6.4 7.1 5.1 12-85 9.1 10.5 11.2 17.5 1-8 6 7.1 7.7 7.2 8.3 12-8 6 1-87 2-87 3 417.4 3 435.3 7.5 7.0 7.7 3.1 6.5 6 .8 6.3 6 .6 3.2 5.0 3.5 4-86 7.6 8 .0 7.8 8.3 6 .2 8.4 9.3 15.5 5-86 6.5 6.7 6.4 6 .6 4.5 5.7 5.5 6.5 -1.9 6-8 6 5.9 6 .0 5.6 5.6 3.8 4.6 4.1 4.3 - 0 .8 0 .2 7-86 5.6 5.7 5.3 5.3 3.7 4.3 3.9 4.0 0.5 1.6 3.1 3.7 1.0 1.9 2.8 5.1 11-8 6 3 418.0 7.0 5.2 10 -8 6 - 0 .2 6.5 9-86 9-86 3 372.3 2-86 10 -8 6 8-86 3 358.3 3-86 5.3 7-86 3 333.9 9-85 8 -86 Ô Î U Î Ô M 5 Of DOLLARS ANNUA! "ftÀTËS" MONTH 3 445.1 3 486.8 3 481.3 3 481 . 9 3 490.8 5.0 5.0 3.5 4.1 3.7 5.2 4.9 4.8 3.5 4.0 3.7 3.7 1.5 2.3 3.0 3.0 3.5 5.1 4.7 4.7 3.5 3.9 3.6 3.6 1.8 2.5 3.1 3.1 3.5 3.4 2.4 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.7 1.9 5.4 2.5 3 497.9 3 507.9 3 517.8 11-8 6 4.9 4.9 4.5 4.5 3.4 3.7 3.4 3.4 1.8 12-8 6 5.0 5.0 4.7 4.7 3.6 4.0 3*8 3*8 2*4 3.0 3.5 3.6 3.9 4.0 4.3 6 .8 1-87 4.9 4.9 4« 6 4#6 3.7 4.0 3.8 3.8 2.6 3.1 3.5 3.6 3.9 3.9 4.1 5.2 3.7 3.9 4.5 5.1 5.3 5.8 6.3 7.0 8 .8 9.8 16.3 3 523.3 3 542.7 3 553.4 3 598.5 2-87 5.5 5.5 5.3 5.3 4.5 4.9 4.8 4.9 3-87 5.3 5.3 5.1 5.1 4.3 4.7 4.5 4.6 3.7 4.2 4.7 4.9 5.3 5.5 6 .0 7.0 7.1 8 .8 1.8 8-85 9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85 1-8 6 2-86 3-8 6 4-86 5-86 6 -86 7-86 8-84!» 9-86 10-t* 1 1-» 6 12-16 1-87 2-87 3 6 0 3 . 9P P - P R ELIM IN A R Y PtEPAHED » T T O P U L E t S H f lT B A It OF S T . L OU I S A W I l 24 » 1 H T __________________________________ 8 RETAIL RATIO SALES* SCALE BILLIONS OF 1979 RATIO DOLLARS 1980 BILLIONS SEASONALLY a d j u s t e d 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 SO URC E: PER CE N TA G E S ARE ANNUAL LATEST DATA P L O T T E D : « R E V IS E D FROM RA TE S OF CHANGE FOR P E R IO D S FE B R U A R Y , U .S . 1986 DEP ART ME NT OF SC A L E DOLLARS 1987 OF COMMERCE IN D IC ATED . MARCH ADVANCE E S T I M A T E I96 0 PREPA RE D BY F E D E R A L RE SER VE BANK OF S T . LO U IS R E T A I L SALES COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RAT ES Q f CHANGE T ERMI NAL I NI T I A L 6-85 9-65 10-85 11-85 12-65 1-86 MI L L I O N S Of DOLLARS WQttTU 2 - 8 6 ___3 - 8 6 ___i I ? ’ 6 *»___________________ 1 - 8 7 ___2_- 8 7 ___Jrfife___1 ______________________________________________________________________________________ 10-85 -6 .0 -29.2 - 1 1 - g? -U 7 -12 115,71 116,41 _Lil 117,389 12-85 1.2 -5.6 9.0 10.5 1-86 3.1 -1.7 9.6 10.7 10.8 2-86 1,2 -3.0 5.0 4.1 l.o -7.8 3-86 0.8 -2.8 3.6 2.6 0.1 -4.8 -1.6 *-86 2.0 -0.9 4.9 4.3 2.8 0.3 4.7 11.4 5-86 3.1 0.7 5.9 5.6 4.6 3.1 7.1 11.7 12.0 6-86 2.9 0.7 5.2 *.9 3.9 2,6 5.4 7.9 6.2 118,393 117,590 117,428 118,485 119,613 0.7 119,679 120,541 7-86 3.4 1.5 5.6 5.4 4.6 3.7 6.1 8.2 7.1 4.7 9.0 8-86 * •5 2.8 6.7 6.6 6.2 5.5 7.9 9.9 9,6 8.8 13.1 17.3 9-86 9.5 8.3 12.5 13.1 13.3 13.7 17.1 20.6 22.5 25.3 34.8 49.9 91.5 10-86 3.8 2.3 5.5 5.4 4.9 4.2 5.8 6.9 6.2 5.1 6.2 5.3 -0.2 -48.0 11-86 3.3 1.9 4.8 4.5 4.0 3.3 4.7 5.5 4.7 3.5 4.1 2.9 -1.6 -29.4 -4.3 12-86 6.8 5.7 8.8 8.8 8.7 8.5 10.3 11.7 11.8 11.7 13.7 14.7 14.0 -4.1 30.2 77.1 -58.6 -6.9 -22.2 -11.1 5.8 6.5 6.0 5.4 6.0 5.6 3.7 -8.2 5.7 9.3 -14.1 77.9 5.5 6.2 5.7 5.1 5.6 5.2 3.6 -6.5 5.1 7.6 -8.9 35.1 2.5 2-86 3-86 4-86 5-86 6-86 7-86 8-86 9-86 1 0-86 11-86 12 — 86 1-87 2-87 5.1 4.7 4.5 U“\ 00 1 -3.2 4.9 1-86 2-87 * ,2 3,1 5.6 3-87 *.l 3.1 5.% 8-85 9-85 10-85 11-85 118,579 -1.6 5.3 1.6 127,613 -1.3 5.5 2.0 121,678 0.1 0.9 -0.3 122,121 1.2 0.2 1.0 128,952 -1 4.3 0.9 1-87 122,156 INITIAL 124,412P 124,6696 MONTH » D A T A R E V I S E D fROM 1980 P - PRELIMINARY E - EST I MATEO PREPARED BV FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS Affili l?t l?JT_________________________ 9 HOURLY COMPENSATI OH* BUSINESS SECTOR COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES QP CHA***_____ T ERflI ftAL__________ _________________________ ____________________________________ I N I T I A L W Ä R T E R QUARTER 2-82 3-82 *-82 3-8* 1-83 1-8* 1-92 2-83 3-83 *-83 2-8* 2-82 6.8 3-82 7.1 *-8* 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 153.8 7.5 156.6 1 58.3 *-82 6.2 5.9 *.* 1-83 5.7 5.3 *.3 *.1 2-83 5.0 *.6 3.7 3.3 2.5 3-83 *.* *.0 3.1 2.7 2.0 *-83 *.6 *.2 3.6 3.3 3.1 3.* 5.3 1-8* *.7 *.* 3.9 3.8 3.8 *.2 5.5 5.7 2-8* *.5 *.2 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.9 *.6 *.3 2.9 3-8* *.5 *.3 3.9 3.8 3.8 *.0 *.6 *.* 3.8 .6 *-8* *.5 *.2 3.9 3.8 3.8 *.0 *.5 *.3 3.8 .2 159.9 1 60.9 161.5 1.5 163.6 165.9 167.1 169.0 3.8 170.6 172.3 1-85 *.* *.2 3.9 3.8 3.8 *.0 *.* *.2 3.9 .2 3.9 *.0 2-85 *.5 *.3 *.0 *.0 *.0 *.1 *.5 *.* *.l .* *.* *.6 5.2 3-85 *.5 *.3 *.0 *.0 *.0 *.2 *.5 *.* *.2 .* *.* *.6 4.8 *.0 4.4 174.5 176.4 4.4 178.0 *-85 *.* *.3 *.0 *.0 *•1 *.* *.3 *.1 .3 *.2 *.3 4.1 3.7 1-86 *.3 *.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 *.0 *.2 *.1 3.9 .0 3.9 *.0 3.9 3.5 3.1 2.5 2-86 *.2 *.l 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 *•1 *.0 3.8 .9 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.4 3.0 2.7 2.9 3-86 *.2 *.0 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.8 *.0 3.9 3.7 .8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.9 *-86 *.0 3.9 3*7 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.9 3.7 3.5 .6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.6 2*5 2.0 1-82 2-82 3-82 *-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 *-83 2 - 8* 3-8* 4-84 1-85 2-85 4-85 1-86 2-§6 5-§6 l-i* 179.1 1 80.4 181.7 182.6 i w i m c “W i T P * ?ftt#A ftfft I V T O « A L HÉSÉHVT RAN* OF 5 7 . LO UIS WARCN 2 , I H 7 _________________________________________ OUTPUT PER HOUR OP ALL PERSONS» BUSINESS SECTOR _________ CONPOUNOEO ANNUAL RATES OP CHANGE_________ I E HftltM l__________________________________________________________________ I N IT I A L QUARTER_________________________________________________________________ 1 9 7 7 « !00 QUARTER 1-82 2-82 1.6 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3- 83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1- 85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-8» 2-86 3—8 6 100.2 1 00.3 3- 82 1.0 0.* 4-82 1.6 1.6 2.8 1-83 2.1 2.3 3.2 3.6 101.0 1 01.9 103.5 2- 83 3.0 3.3 *.3 5.0 6.4 3-83 2.1 2.2 2.7 2.6 2.2 -1.9 4-83 2.3 2.* 2.8 2.8 2.5 0.6 103.0 103.8 3.1 104.9 1-8* 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.1 2.9 1.8 3.7 *.3 2- 8* 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.0 3.4 3.5 2.7 3-8* 2.2 2.3 2.6 2.5 2.3 1.5 2.4 2.2 l.l -0.4 1 05. 6 105.5 *- 84 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.3 1.9 1.6 0.8 -0.2 0.0 1-85 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.2 1.7 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.8 2-85 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.4 1.9 1.7 l.l 0.8 l.l 1.7 105.5 1 05. 7 2.7 106.4 3- 85 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.6 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.7 2.3 3.1 3.4 4-85 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.1 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.0 -3.3 1- 86 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.3 1.6 1.5 l.l 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.5 1*1 0.0 3.4 107.3 106.4 IV 1 at O' 1 07. 3 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.5 1.4 l.l 0.8 1.0 1.2 1*3 0.9 O.I 1.9 0.4 3-86 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.5 l.l 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.0 l.l 0.0 -0.4 *-86 1.* I.* 1.4 1.4 1.2 0.8 1. 1 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.1 -0 .5 ».2 -0 .9 -1.5 -2.6 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3— 84 4-84 1-85 2-85 4-*5 l-*4 2-16 3-16 107.4 107.3 106*6 H g E A A f i ftV~fC Tg * A L K f g l V f iAW t OT S I , LO UIS « U C H 2* I f 7 ____________________________ 10 PRODUCTIVITY, RAT I 0 COMPENSATION, AND LABOR COSTS SCALE R A T 10 1 9 7 7 -1 0 0 SEASONALLY 1979 1980 1981 1982 ADJUSTED 1983 1984 1985 S OU R C E i PERCENTACE S LATES T ARE AN NU A L D A TA P L O T T E D t RATES 4TH OF CH ANGE FOR P E R I O D S U S . 1986 OF LAB OR ST. LOUIS Q U A RT E R FEDERAL RES ERVE U N IT LAftO* COSTS* BUSINESS SECTOR ___________ CgfffWJfreft Ammi MTES Of T ERMI NAL________________________________________________________________________ I H I T I M , W 4 M Æ 1 QUARTER 1-82 *-83 1-8* 2-8* 3-8» *-8» 2- 83 3- 83 2-82 3-82 *-82 1-83 S AN K OF _____________ 1-85 2-85 3-85 »-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 153.5 2- 82 5.* 3-82 6.3 7.2 *-82 *.T *.3 1-83 3.5 2.9 0.8 0.0 2-83 2.1 1.3 -0.6 -1.7 156.2 156.8 1.5 156.8 -3.3 155.5 156.8 3- 83 2.3 1.7 0.* 0.0 0.0 3.* »-83 2.3 1.8 0.8 0.6 0.8 2.8 2.3 1-8» 2.2 1.7 0.9 0.7 0.9 2.3 1.8 1.3 2-8* 2.0 1.6 0.8 0.6 0.8 1.8 1.3 0.8 0.3 1 57*7 158.2 1 58.3 160.2 3- 8* 2.3 1.9 1.3 1.2 I.* 2.* 2.2 2.1 2.5 *.9 *-8* 2.* 2.1 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.6 2.5 2.5 3.0 *.3 3.8 1-85 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.8 2.7 2.7 3.1 *.1 3.7 3.5 2-85 2.5 2.2 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.9 3.6 3.2 2.9 161.7 163.1 1 64.0 2.2 3- 85 2.* 2.1 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.5 2.* 2.* 2.6 3. 1 2.6 2.2 1.6 1.0 *-85 2.7 2.5 2.1 2.2 2.* 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.» ».1 2.5 1987 DE PARTMENT IN DIC ATED. PREPARED 6Y 1— 86 SCALE 1 9 7 7 -1 0 0 2.3 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 3.1 2.8 16».» 167.3 7.2 2.6 2.» 2.» 3.2 -0 .7 167.0 168.0 2-86 2.5 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.7 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.» 2.» 2.9 0.8 2.4 3-86 2.5 2.3 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.6 3.0 1.6 2.8 3.1 3.5 4.1 5.1 1-86 2-86 3 — 86 *-86 2.6 2.5 2.2 2.3 2.* 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.» 2.5 1-82 2-82 3-82 *-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 *-83 Í-8* 2- 8* 3-8» 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 169.3 171.» T W T IA L T H U IT W E tC F À t C P BT FIPCHAL U l l t KV t BANK 0? Z Ï . LOU I S MARCH 2 , 11 I H T _________ MOSS NA T I ONAL PROOUCT I N CURRENT DOLLARS m m of chance confounded T I L L I W « Of T ERMI N A L QUARTER 2-82 3“ 92 *-*2 1-83 2-93 3-8* I N I T I A L QUARTER T N N U A L RAT E 5 2-8* 3-84 *-8* _ 3-82 2.5 *-82 3.* * •2 I — 83 *•5 5.5 6.8 2-83 6.6 8.0 9.9 13.0 3-83 7.1 8.3 9.7 11.2 9.4 *-83 8.0 9.1 10.4 11.6 10.9 12.* 1-84 9.0 10.1 11.3 12.* 12.2 13.6 1* . 9 2-8* 8.9 9.8 10.7 11.5 11.2 11.8 11.5 8.2 3-8* 8.5 9.3 10.1 10.6 10.1 10.3 9.7 7.1 6.1 *-8* 8.2 8.8 9.* 9.8 9.3 9.2 8.5 6.* 5.5 *.9 DOLLARS 3-85 2-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 3*179.* 3*212.5 3*265.8 3*367.* 3**43.9 3*5*5.8 3*670.9 3*7*3.8 3*799.7 3*8*5.6 1-85 8.1 8.6 9.1 9.* 8.9 8.8 8.1 6.5 5.9 5.9 6.8 2-85 7.9 8.* 8.8 9.0 8.5 8.* 7.7 6.* 5.9 5.8 6.3 5.8 8.8 8.3 8.2 7.6 6.* 6.1 6.1 6.5 6.3 6.8 3*909.3 3*965.0 **030.5 3-85 7.8 8.2 8.6 *-85 7.6 8.0 8.* 8.5 8.1 7.9 7.* 6.3 6.0 6.0 6.3 6.1 6.3 5.8 1-86 7.5 7.9 8.2 8.3 7.9 7.7 7.2 6.3 6.1 6.0 6.3 6.1 6.2 6.0 6.2 2-86 7.2 7.5 7.8 7.9 7.* 7.3 6.8 5.9 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.* 5.3 *.8 *.3 2.6 3-86 7.2 7.5 7.7 7.7 7.* 7.2 6.7 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.2 5.0 *.5 6.* *-86 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.3 6.9 6.8 6.3 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.0 *.9 *.5 *.2 3.5 *.0 1.7 1-87 6.9 7.2 7.3 7.* 7.0 6.8 6.* 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.* 5.3 5.0 *.9 *.6 5.3 *.7 2-82 3-82 *-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 *-83 1-8* 2—8* 3-8* *-8* 1-85 2-85 3-85 4— 85 l-*6 2-96 5 - *6 P- *-86 **087.7 **1*9.2 **175.6 *♦240.7 4*258.7 7.8 4 * 3 3 9 . 2P PKELININARY P *EP a * E O S ^ f E & f A A L RESERVE BANK O f S T . L O U IS A P R IL 2 3 » 1907______________________________________________ CROSS NAT I ONAL PROOUCT I N 1982 OOLLARS CQNPOUWOEP ANNUAL R A T E S O f CHANCE_____ B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RAT ES QUARTER 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-96 2-86 3-86 4 —86 3*154.5 3-82 -3.2 4-82 -1.3 0.6 1-83 0.3 2.0 3.5 2-83 2.5 4*4 6.4 9.3 7.7 3*159.3 3*186.6 3-83 3.2 4.8 6.3 4-83 3*9 5.3 6,5 7.5 3*258.3 3*306.4 6.0 3*365.1 7.3 3*444.7 1-84 4.T 6.0 7.2 8.1 7.7 8.5 9.8 2-8* 4.7 5.9 6.8 7.5 7.0 7.4 7.4 5.0 3-84 4.5 5.4 6.2 6.6 6.1 6.1 5.7 3.7 3*487.1 3*507.4 2.3 3*520.4 4-84 4.2 5.0 5.6 5.9 5.3 5.1 4.6 2.9 1.9 1.5 1-85 4.1 4.8 5.3 5.5 5.0 4.8 4.3 3.0 2.3 2.3 3.1 2-85 3.9 4.6 5.0 5.1 4.6 4.4 4.0 2.8 2.3 2.3 2.7 2.3 3*547.0 3*567.6 3*603.8 3-85 3.9 4.5 4.9 5.0 4.6 4.4 4.0 3.1 2.7 2.7 3.2 3.2 4.1 4-85 3.8 4.3 4.7 4.8 4.3 4.1 3.8 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.8 3.1 2.1 1-86 3.8 4.3 4.6 4.7 4.3 4.1 3.8 3.0 2.7 2.8 3.1 3.1 3.3 2.9 3.8 2-86 3.6 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.0 3.8 3.4 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.1 2.2 0.6 3-86 3.5 4.0 4.2 4.3 3.9 3.7 3.4 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.3 2.4 1.7 2.8 1.5 1.9 1.1 3*622.3 3*655.9 3*661.4 3*686.4 3*696.1 4-86 3.4 3.8 4.0 4.0 3.7 3.5 3.2 2.6 2* 4 *.4 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.0 2.0 1-87 3.4 3.8 4.0 4.1 3.7 3.5 3.3 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.4 2.5 2.2 2.7 2.7 4*3 2 —82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-W 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 3 * 7 3 5 . 2P PRELIMINARY H i m g f t t V E E t e f t il HE » V E BANK O f f T . T O U I S " ***«■ *»* im -------------------------------------- 12 GROSS N A T I O N A L PRODUCT R A T I O SCALE QUARTERLY TOTALS T R I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS SE ASONALLY 4. R A T I O SCALE OF DOLLARS 4.6 AT ANNUAL RA TE S ADJUS TED TRILLIONS 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 3. 4.4 4.2 4.0 2 . 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 SOURCE! PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERI ODS LATEST DATA PLOTTED« 1985 U.S. 1986 1987 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE INDICATED. 1ST QUARTER P R E L I M I N A R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . 13 LOUIS GE NE RA L RATIO PRICE INDEX* SCALE RATIO 1982-100 1979 *AS USED 1980 IN NATIONAL 1981 1982 1983 1984 INCOME ACCOUNTS D A TA P L O T T E D t 1985 SOU RCE ; P E R C E N T A G E S ARE ANNUAL RA TE S OF CHANGE FOR P E R IO D S LATEST SCALE 1982-100 U .S . 1986 1987 DEP ART ME NT OF COMMERCE IN D IC A TE D . 1ST QUARTER P R E L I M I N A R Y PR EPARED BY FE DE RA L RE SER VE BANK OF S T . LO U IS I M P L I C I T P R I C E DEFLAT OR FO* CROSS N A T I O N A L PRODUCT _________________________________ CQHPQUNOEO ANNUM. RAT E S Of CHANCE__________________________________ J£fR H IH AL___________ _____________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L QUARTER_______________________________________________________________________ 19 8 2 QUARTER 3-86 4-86 1-06 2-06 2- 8* 3-0* *-0* 1- 85 2- 05 3-95 4-05 2-82 3-82 2-83 1-8* *- 82 1-83 3-93 *-83 100.8 3-82 5.8 *-82 *.7 3.6 1-83 W 3.* 3.2 2-83 3.9 3.3 3.2 3.2 101.7 102.5 103.3 104.2 3- 83 3.8 3.* 3.3 3.3 3.5 4-83 *.0 3.6 3.6 3.8 *.1 *.7 1-8* *.1 3 •6 3.8 *.0 *.3 *.7 *.6 2-8* 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.8 *.0 *.1 3.8 3.0 3- 8* 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.7 3.2 3.* *-8* 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.3 3.* 105.4 106.6 107.4 100.3 109.2 3.* 110.2 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.* 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.* 3.* 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.* 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.2 2.9 2.5 *-85 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.6 wt 00 1 1- 85 2-85 111.1 111.0 112.0 113.5 1-86 3.6 3.* 3.* 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.1 2.5 2-86 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.1 1.0 3-86 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.* 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.6 2.7 3.6 *-86 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.* 2.* 2.1 2.0 2.1 0.7 1-87 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.1 3.5 2-82 3-02 *-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 *-«3 1-8* 2-8* 3-8* 4— 8* 1-05 2-85 i-95 4-95 1-46 2-06 3-06 4 W06 P- 1 00 PRELI MI NARY 115.0 115.2 1 1 6 . 2P " ' W E P A A E D BŸ P ED EIU L- RESERVE BANK OF S I . LIHJ ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ A P R IL 1 14.0 14 15 2 3 » 1 9 8 7 _____________________________________________ PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN CURRENT OOLLARS ------------------------CPNttMNPCP ANNUAL RATES Of CHANCE______________ BtLLiÖNS W DOLLARS ANNUAL RAT ES T E RMI NAL QUARTER 2-82 3-82 8.5 *-82 9 ** 3-82 *-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-«3 1-8* 2-8* 3-»* *-6* 1-85 4-85 1-86 2-S6 3—86 * —86 2 »065.6 2 » 117.0 2 » 1*6.6 8.2 8.0 5.7 2-83 9.3 9.6 9.3 13.0 3-83 9.3 9.5 9.3 11.1 9.3 4-83 9.* 9.6 9.* 10.6 9.5 9.7 1-8* 9.3 9.* 9.2 10.1 9.2 9.1 0* 6 2-8* 9*3 9.* 9.9 9.2 9.1 8.8 9.1 3-8* 8.8 8.6 9.1 8.3 8.1 7.5 7.0 5.0 *-8* 8.6 6.6 8.* 8.8 8.1 7.9 7.* 7.0 6.0 7.0 1-85 8.5 8.5 8.3 8.6 7.8 7.* 7.1 6.* 7.1 7.2 2-85 8** 6.* 6.* 7.9 7.7 7.* T.l 6.6 7.2 7.3 7.3 3-85 8** 8.3 6.* 7.9 7.7 7.5 7.3 6.9 7.* 7.6 7.7 7.3 2»213.0 2»262.8 2»315.8 *-85 8.2 8.2 8.0 8.2 7.8 7.6 1-86 8.0 7.9 7.7 7.9 7.5 7.3 2-86 7.8 7.7 7.7 7.3 7.1 6.8 3-86 7.9 7.9 7.7 7.9 7.5 7.* T.l *-86 7.7 7.6 7.* 7.6 7.2 7.0 P- 3-85 10.3 1-83 1-87 2-85 7.5 7.5 2-82 3-82 7.* *-82 1-83 6.9 2-83 3-83 *-83 2*363.8 2 » * 16.1 2 »**5.6 2»*87.2 2»530.9 2 »576.0 2 » 6 2 7 .1 6.2 2»667.9 7.2 6.8 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.3 6.* 6.6 6.5 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.* 5.5 *.6 6.6 6.3 6.5 6.5 6.3 6.1 5.* *.9 5.2 7.0 6.6 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.6 6.6 7.7 10.3 6.6 6.* 6.5 6.5 6.* 6.2 5.8 5.7 6.1 6.6 3.0 6.2 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.8 6.0 3.9 *.9 1-85 2-85 3-85 *-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 *-86 6.5 6.2 6.* 6.3 1-8* 2-8* 3-8* *-8* 2»697.9 2.732.0 2 »799.8 2»820.* 2 » 854.3P P R E L I MI N A R Y PREPARED BV FEDERAL RESERVE" BANK DF“ 3 T , L O U I S A P R I L 23* I 987_____________________________________________ PERSONAL CONSUMPT I ON E XP ENDI T U RE S I N 1962 DOLLARS ____________ CONPOUNPEP ANNUAL RAT ES OP CHANCE_____________ INITIAL TE RMI NAL OUARTER 2-82 *-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4- 83 1-84 2-84 3- 84 ""StLLTWiS'OF DOLLARS iÏ N * * M T “ K * T E S QUARTER 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1- 86 2-86 3-86 4-86 3-82 2.1 2*051.6 *-82 3.7 2»078.7 2*094.2 1-83 3.5 3.0 2- 83 *.6 5.5 8.0 3- 83 *.8 5.* 6.7 2*135.1 2*163.0 5.3 2*191.9 *-83 *.9 5.* 6.3 1-8* *.8 5.2 5.7 4.9 4.8 *.1 2-8* *.9 5.3 5.8 5.2 5.2 5.0 6.0 5.5 2*213.8 2*246.3 2 *253.3 3- 8* *.5 *.7 5.0 4.4 4.2 3.8 3.6 1.3 *-8* *.* *.5 4.6 4.2 4.0 3.6 3.5 2.3 3.3 1-85 *.3 *.* 4.6 4.1 3.9 3.6 3.5 2.7 3.5 4.5 2-85 *.2 *.3 3-*5 *.3 *.* *-85 *.1 4.2 4.3 2*271.7 2 *292.3 3.7 2*311.9 4.1 3.9 3.6 3.5 2.9 3.5 3.6 3.5 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.4 3.9 4.1 4.4 5.3 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.1 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.9 1.7 2*342.0 2»351.7 2 *372.7 1-86 *.1 *.2 4.2 3.9 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 2.6 3.6 2- 66 *.2 *.3 4.4 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.5 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.2 3.8 4.9 6.2 *.* *.5 4.6 4.3 4.2 *.1 4.1 3.9 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.5 5.5 6.4 6.7 3-66 2 *406.4 2*446.0 *-86 *.1 *.1 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.5 *.0 4.1 Î.1 —0 . 4 1-87 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.* 3*3 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 2.9 3.1 3.0 1.9 -0.4 -0.4 2*445.8 2-82 4-82 1-83 2 —€ 3 3 —83 4-83 1-84 2- 84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 2 *4 43 .IP P - PRELIMINARY P R EPA R EE h i FED ER A L R ESER VE BANK OF S T . L O U I S A P R IL 2 3 , l » t T __________________ .___________________________ 15 CROSS PRIVATE OON6 S T IC INVESTNCNT IN CIMRENT DOLLARS __________ CP « r « M r e f f ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE _____________ ____ b T E RMI NA L Q ____________________________________________________ U A R T E *-83 2-82 2-83 3-83 *— 82 1-83 3-82 1— 8 * - 3-82 «7 *-82 -23*3 -32.7 1-83 - u . i -10*3 IN ITIAL R 2-Ji 6 # 452.2 409.6 428.3 19*6 2-83 2.9 8.7 38. 1 59.5 3-83 8.8 I*.9 37.* *7.2 35.9 4-83 15.* 22.0 *1.6 *9.8 *5.1 481.3 519.7 5*.9 579.8 1-8* 21.7 28.6 *6.* 5*.0 52.2 61.0 67.* 2-8* 18.6 23.8 37.1 *0.9 36.6 3 6.8 28.6 -1.2 3-8* 17.3 21.8 32.5 3*.8 30.3 29.0 21.3 3.3 8.0 659.5 21.2 1*.0 0.3 1. 1 -5.* 657.5 670.3 1 *• 8 18.* 28.2 23.6 1-85 12.7 15.7 22.8 23.2 18.8 16.2 9.7 -1.3 -I.* -5.8 -6.2 12.6 15.2 21.5 21.8 17.7 15.3 9.8 0.9 1.5 -0.6 1.8 10.5 3-85 n .o 13.3 18.8 18.7 I*.9 12.5 7.* -0.2 0.0 -1.9 -0.7 2.1 -5.7 *-85 10.8 12.8 17.8 17.6 I*. 1 11.9 7.5 0.9 1.2 -0 .1 1.3 3.9 0.7 7.6 1-86 11.7 13.7 18.* 18.3 15. 1 13.2 9.3 3.6 *.3 3.7 5.7 8.9 8.3 16.1 2-86 10. 1 11.8 15.9 15.7 12.6 10.7 7.0 1.9 2.2 1.* 2.6 *.5 3.0 6.1 5.4 -1 1 .3 3-86 9.0 10.6 I*.3 13.9 11.0 9.1 5.7 1.0 1.2 0.* 1.3 2.6 1.0 2.8 1.3 -9.0 -6 .5 IT. OD 1 *-8* 27.0 661.1 650.6 667.1 657.4 6 69.5 25.3 708.3 687.3 6 75.8 *-86 8.1 9.* 12.8 12.* 9.6 7.8 *.6 0.2 0.3 -0.5 0.2 1.1 -0.* 0.7 -0.9 -8.4 -6.9 -7.3 1-87 9.0 10.* 13.6 13.3 10.7 9.1 6.2 2.2 2.6 2.0 2.9 *.i 3.2 *.8 4.2 -0.5 3.4 8.8 27.6 2 — 82 3-82 *-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 *-83 1-8* 2-8* 3-8* *-8* 1-85 2-6* 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-B6 5-86 4-86 IN I T I A L P- T l l i o n S QUARTER____________ __________________________________________________________DOLLARS A N N U A L RAT ES 3-86 4-86 *-84 4-85 1-8<L 2 - 8 6 1-85 3-85 2-85 663.2 7 0 4 . 8P QUARTER preliminary ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *AE*A*EO~~BV FED ER AL RESERVE BANK OF S T • L O U IS ____________________ _______________ ____________________________ ____________ _______________________________ APt t I L 23* 1987_______________ CROSS P R I V A T E DOMEST I C I N V E S T ME N T I N 1982 DOLLARS ____________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RAT E S OF CHANCE_____________ T E R MI N A L QUARTER IN IT IA L DOLLARS ANNUAL R AT ES 2-82 3-82 4-62 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 448.6 3-82 -15.2 4-82 -23.5 -31.0 408.8 -u .* -9.4 19.1 *.1 11.5 41.9 68.9 1 ff\ CD 9.7 17.0 39.5 51.0 35.0 1 OD 427.1 1-83 2-83 486.9 524.8 r* 577.2 15.1 22.3 41.2 49.4 40.5 46.3 1-84 20.6 28.0 44.8 52.0 46.8 53.1 60.1 2-84 17.9 23.6 36.2 39.9 33.4 32.9 26.7 0.2 3-84 16.5 21.2 31.4 33.5 27.4 25.6 19.3 3.0 4-8* l*.l 17.9 26.1 27.1 21.2 18.7 12.6 O.l 0.1 -5.4 1-85 12.0 15.1 21.9 22.2 16.7 13.9 8.4 -1.7 -2.4 -6.2 -7.0 2-85 11.9 I *. 8 20.8 13.6 8.9 0.8 0.9 -0.7 1.8 3-85 10.3 12.8 *-85 10.0 12.3 10.7 12.8 2-86 9.2 3-86 8.1 1-86 "BILLIONS Of QUARTER 649.3 649.7 658.9 5.8 649.9 6 38.2 655.6 21.0 16.0 18.0 17.8 13.2 10.8 6.4 -0 .6 -0.7 -2.3 -1.2 1.8 -7.0 16.9 16.7 12.5 10.2 6.4 0.3 0.4 -0.7 0.5 3.1 -0.7 6 0 5.8 12 9 7.8 2.6 3.0 17.2 17.0 13.2 11.2 11.1 14.9 14.6 10.9 9.0 5.8 1.0 l.l 9.8 13.2 12.8 9.4 7.5 4.5 O.l O.l 7.6 2.5 11.4 6 43.8 4.2 7.2 0.5 1.5 3.3 1*4 4 4 -0.6 0.1 1.4 -0.5 1 2 -1.6 -0.8 -2.7 -I 653.2 684.0 20.2 664.7 3 *6 - 1 0 . 8 651.3 -0.4 -9.3 -7.8 8 -3.7 -10.6 -10.5 -13.0 629.0 *-86 6.8 8.3 11.4 10.9 %7 2.9 -|.| -l»3 1-87 7.9 9.3 12.3 11.9 8.9 7.2 4.7 1.0 l.l 0.6 1.3 2.4 1.2 2 6 2.0 -2.1 0.9 5.6 28.3 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-15 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-16 6 69.4P P - PRELIMINARY M E # AREP BY FEDERAL RE SE RVE BANK OF S r . LOU I~S~~ A H M L 2 3 t I 9 t 7 __________________________________________ 16 6 OVE* HUENT PURCHASES Of COOOS ANO S E R VI CE S I N CURRENT DOLLARS ___________________ CONPOUNPEP ANNUAL RAT ES O f CHAWCE______________________ T E RMI NAL QUARTER 11LL10HS OF DOLLARS AhM JAL RATES I N I T I A L QUARTER 3-82 2-82 *- 82 1- 83 2-83 3-83 *-83 1- 8* 2-ff4 3- 8* * -8 * 1-85 2 -8 5 3-85 *-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 *-86 6*7.1 3-82 671.8 *-82 15.3 16.2 1-83 9.1 6.6 -2.2 2- 83 7.9 5.8 1.0 663.1 *.3 675.2 680.7 3-83 7.0 5.2 1.8 3.8 3.3 *-83 5.3 3.6 0.6 1.6 0.3 -2.7 1-8* 6.0 *.7 2.5 3.8 3.6 3.7 10.5 2-8* 8.3 7.* 6.0 7.7 8.6 10.* 17.6 676.1 693.2 733.3 25.2 7*3.8 3-8* 8.0 7.2 6.0 7.* 8.0 9.3 13.6 15.1 5.9 *-8* 8.3 7.6 6.6 7.9 8.5 9.6 12.9 13.7 8 .* 11.0 12.1 8 .1 9.2 1-85 8.2 7.6 6.7 7.9 8.* 9.3 11.8 763.* 777.3 7.5 799.0 2-85 8.5 8.0 7.2 8.3 8.8 9.6 11.8 12.0 9.0 10.0 9.5 11.6 3-85 9.1 8.6 8.0 9.1 9.6 10.* 12.* 12.7 10.* 11.5 11.7 13.9 16.3 *- 85 9.* 9.0 8.* 9.* 9.9 10.7 12.5 12.8 10.8 11.9 12.1 13.7 I*.7 1-86 8.1 7.6 7.0 7.8 8. 1 8.6 9.9 9.9 7.8 8.2 7.6 7.6 6.3 1.7 —6 . 5 2-86 8.3 7.9 7.3 8.1 8 .* 8.9 10.1 10.1 8.3 8.7 8.3 8.5 7.7 5.0 1.2 12.0 8.3 8.7 9.8 9.7 8.1 8 .* 8.0 8.1 7.* 5.3 2.9 9.1 6.3 8 29.7 855.6 13.1 836.7 8 60.8 87*.0 8.2 7.8 7.3 8.0 *-86 8.0 7.7 7.1 7.8 8.0 8 .* 9.* 9.3 7.8 8.0 7.7 7.7 7.1 5.3 3.5 7.8 5.8 5.3 1-87 7.8 7.* 6.9 7.5 7.7 8.0 8.9 8 .8 7.* 7.5 7.2 7.1 6.5 5.0 3.* 6.6 *.9 *.2 3.1 2-82 3-82 *-82 1-83 2-83 3- 83 *-83 1- 8* 2-8* 3- 8* * -8 * 1- 85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 *-86 3-86 8 85.3 « 9 2 . IP I n i t I At QUARTER P- PR E L I MI NA R Y "PREDAR fTTftY FEDERAL "RESERVE BAN« OF ST ."T O O T S APRIL 23» 1987______________________________________ ___ GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF COOOS ANO S E R V I C E S I N 1982 DOLLARS _________ C QN P WN DC P ANNUAL R A TES O f CHANCE_______________________ B tL L IW iS Of DOLLARS A~W*JAt : RA T E S IN I T IA L W A R IE R QUARTER 2-82 3-82 *- 82 1- 83 2-83 3- 83 V— 83 1-8* 2-8* 4-8* 1- 85 2- 85 3-85 4-85 8.* *- 82 9.9 11.* 1-83 *.2 2.1 -6.* 2- 83 3.* 1.7 -2.8 l.l 3- 83 3.0 1.7 -1.3 1.* 1.7 1.3 0.0 -2.7 -1.* -2.7 -6.8 1- 8* 1.8 0.8 -1.2 0.2 -0.1 -1.0 5.1 2- 8* 3.8 3.1 ' 1.8 3.6 *.2 5.0 11.5 18.* 3.7 *.2 8.1 9.7 1.7 *-86 6 *9. 2 650.9 653.6 642.2 650.2 678.2 681.0 3-8* 3.5 3.0 1.8 *-8* 3.8 3.3 2.* 3.7 *.i *.6 7.7 8.6 *.0 6.3 1-85 3.7 3.2 2.3 3.5 3.8 *.2 6.6 6.9 3.* *.2 2.2 2.9 3.9 *.3 *.7 6.7 7.1 4.* 5.* *.9 7.7 691.5 695.3 701.3 2-85 *.0 3.6 3-85 *.7 *.* 3.8 *.9 5.3 5.8 7.7 8.2 6.3 7.5 7.8 10.8 13.9 *-85 5.1 *.8 *.3 5.* 5.8 6.3 8.0 8.5 6.9 8.0 8.4 10*5 11.9 10.0 3.5 2.9 *.0 *.2 5.6 5.6 3.9 4.3 3.9 4.3 3.2 -1.8 -12.3 3.8 3-86 660.1 3.2 1- 86 2-16 6*2.5 3-82 *- 83 3-8* I-«6 3.8 731.8 7*9.4 725.2 7*2.2 2-86 *.2 3.9 3.* *.2 *.5 *.7 6.0 6.1 *.6 5.0 *.8 5.* 4.8 1.9 -1.9 9.7 3-86 *.2 *.0 3.5 *.2 *.5 4.7 5.8 5.9 *.6 5.0 *.8 5.2 4.7 2.5 0.2 7.1 *.5 6.3 5.5 5.9 5.7 *.l 2.7 8.2 7.4 10.5 750.* 769.3 *-86 *•6 *♦3 3.9 *.6 *.9 5.1 6.2 5.2 5.6 1-87 3.9 3.7 3.2 3.9 *.l *.3 5.2 5.2 4.0 4.3 4.0 4.3 3.8 2.2 0.7 *.3 2.5 1.5 -6.7 2-82 3-82 *-«2 1-83 2-83 3—#3 4-03 1-** 2-«* 3-84 *-8* 1-85 2- 85 3-15 4-85 1—1 6 2-16 3-16 4-16 7 5 6 . IP PRELINtNAk X H E R a REP ftV FEDERAL t R g l V! BAH« OF 5T > IO U I S W i t 23» 1 9 Ì7 _______________________ ___________________ 17 D I S P OSA BL E PERSONAL INCOME I N CURRENT DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RAT ES Of CHANCE T E R MI N A L QUARTER INITIAL 3-62 IzS Z *-62 1-63 2-63 3-63 4-fli. 1- f l * ¿-J* B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RAT ES QUARTER 3-6* 1-65 *-a* 2-65 3-85 *-«5 1-66 2-66 3-86 *-66 2,276.6 6*7 6.9 7.1 1-9? 6,2 6.0 *.8 2-83 6.9 6.9 6.8 2,318.1 2,3*5.7 8.7 2,395.* 3-63 7.1 7.2 7.3 8.5 8.2 *-83 8.3 8.7 9.1 10.5 I 1.* I *• 6 1-8* 9.1 9.6 10.0 H .* 12.3 1*.* l*.l 2-8* 8.6 8.9 9.2 10.1 10.5 11.2 9.6 5.2 3-8* 8.5 8.7 9.0 9.7 9.6 10.3 6.6 6.3 *-8* 8.2 8.* 8.5 9.0 9.1 9.3 8.0 6.0 6.* 5.* 1-85 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.* 8.3 8.3 7.1 5.5 5.5 *.6 3.8 2-85 8.2 8.* 8.5 8.9 8.9 9.0 6.1 7.0 7.* 7.* 8.* 13.2 3-85 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.8 7.7 7.7 6.7 5.5 5.6 5.1 5.0 5.6 -I.* *-85 7.* 7.5 7.5 7.8 7.7 7.6 6.8 5.8 5.9 5.6 5.6 6.2 2.8 2,443.2 2,527.9 2,612.7 2,646.3 7.* 2,693.8 2,729.6 2,755.4 2,842.3 2,832.0 7.3 2,882.2 1-86 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.8 7.7 7.6 6.9 6.0 6.1 5.9 6.0 6.5 *.* 7.* 7.5 2-86 7.* 7.* 7.* 7.6 7*5 7.5 6.8 6.0 6.1 5.9 6.0 6.* *.8 7.0 6.8 6.0 3-86 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.1 6.9 6.8 6.2 5.* 5.* 5.2 5.1 5.* 3.9 5.2 *.5 3.1 *-86 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.* 5.8 5.1 5.0 *.8 *.7 *.8 3.5 *.5 3.8 2.6 1.0 1.8 1-87 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.1 5 .* 5.* 5.3 5.2 5.* *.3 5.3 5.0 *.3 3.8 5.6 9.5 2-82 3-82 *-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 *-83 1-8* 2-8* 3-8* *-8* 1-85 2-85 3-85 *-85 1-86 2-Ó¿ 3— 66 4-86 INITIAL P- 2,935.1 2,978.5 0.2 2,979.9 2,993.0 3 , 0 6 2 . OP IBUARt ER PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY f C M A A L AP R I L 2 3 , 1967 OI SPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME ftESEftVE ftAMK O f ST. LO U TS I N 1 962 DOLLARS _____ Ctm f-ffifflPfcfl. ANNUAL RATES, Of JLHAfttf _______ T E R MI N A L QUARTER INITIAL 2 - 82 3 - a2 4-62 1-83 2-63 3-83 *-83 1-0* 2-8* B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RAT ES QUARTER 3-8* *-6* 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 .. 3-82 2,263.4 2,276.1 4-82 ® i 2.2 2-83 3.1 4.0 3-83 3.5 4.1 4.3 4-83 6.1 7.2 10.2 2,392.7 1-64 6.9 7.9 9.8 2,446.9 2,288.4 2,311.1 2,335.4 2,460.3 2-84 5.3 6.0 6.5 7.2 2.2 3-84 5.1 5.6 5.9 6.3 2.9 3.6 *-8* 4.7 5.0 5.2 5.4 2.5 2.7 1.6 2,481.9 2,493.1 2,495.7 1-85 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.5 2.0 1.9 1.1 0.* 2-$5 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.2 3.* 3.7 3.7 4.7 9.1 3-85 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 2.1 2.1 1.7 1.7 2.3 -4.0 *-65 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.8 2.2 1.9 1.9 2.4 -0.6 2.6 1-86 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.1 2.7 2.B 2.6 2.8 3.* 1.6 4.5 6.5 2-86 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.5 *•1 2.9 5.4 6.8 2,550.8 2,524.7 2,540.7 2,581.2 2,625.7 7.1 3-66 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.7 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.9 1.7 3.2 3. 4 1.9 -3 .0 *-66 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.3 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.3 1.2 2.2 2.2 0.7 -2.3 1-87 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.5 1.6 2.5 2.5 1.5 —0 . 2 4-62 1-83 2-63 3-83 i-a* 2-8* 3—64 4-64 1-85 2 3 - 62 * —83 4-15 2,605.5 2,595.4 -1 .5 1.2 4.0 2 ,620.9P 4 —1 6 I H I T I AL QUARTER P- PRELININARY PREFARED BY F EDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . A P R I L 2 3 , 1 987 18 LOUIS CORPORATE P R O F I T S AF T ER T A XE S * COMPOUNDED A * * U Al RAT ES OF CHAHCE ftfuiOMS or £ I OOLj - ARS T ERMI NAL___________ ____________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L QUARTER____________________________________________________________________ QUARTER a MMJAL J UTE' S 3-86 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 3-83 *-83 *-82 1- 8* 2- 84 4 -8* l 1-85 2- 83 3-94 1- 83 1-92 2 - <?2 3 - 8 2 » 2-82 -1.0 3-82 -0.* l *-82 -3.9 -5 1-83 2.9 2-83 1*.0 18 107.0 107.3 1 104.3 0 -10.7 5 6.2 26.* 3 2*.7 *7.3 110.6 126.6 71.7 141.0 3-83 19.8 2* 7 31.* *9.5 62.5 53.9 *-83 17.9 21 6 26.1 37.5 *1.* 28.3 7.0 1-8* 16.7 19 6 23.0 31.2 32.* 21.* 7.8 2-8* 1*.2 16 3 18.7 2*.* 2*.1 1*.* 3.6 2.0 —4 . 3 3-8* 9.8 11 2 12.5 16.3 1*.7 5.8 -3.7 -7.0 -14.0 -22.6 *-8* 8.* 5 10.* 13.* 11.6 3.9 -3.9 -6.5 -11.0 -14.2 143.4 146.4 8.6 144.8 135.8 134.1 -4.9 126.0 1-85 5.* 1 6.6 8.8 6.7 -0.3 -7.2 -9.8 -13.9 -16.9 2-85 5.2 8 6.2 8.1 6.2 0.0 -5.9 -7 .9 -10.9 -12.5 -8.8 —10.7 2.2 3-85 6.* 0 7.5 9.* 7.8 2.* -2.7 -*.0 —6 . 0 -6.3 -1.8 -0.7 12.1 22.9 *-85 7.2 9 8.* 10.2 8.8 3.9 -0.5 -1.* -2.8 -2.5 2.1 4.0 14.4 21.1 19.2 1-86 *.2 7 *.9 6.2 *.7 0.1 —* . 1 -5.3 -6.9 -7.3 -4.4 -4.3 0.7 0.2 -9.5 -31.3 2-86 *.3 7 5.0 6.2 *.0 0.6 -3.2 -4.2 -5.5 -5.7 -3.0 -2.7 1.8 1.7 —4 . 6 -14.6 6.1 3-86 5.3 8 6.1 7.3 6.1 2.2 -1.2 -1.9 -2.9 -2.8 0.0 0.8 5.2 5.8 1.9 -3.3 14.7 23.9 *-86 6.* 9 7.3 8.5 7.* 3.9 0.8 0.3 -0.5 —0 . 1 2.8 3.8 8.1 9.2 6.6 3.7 18.9 25.9 1-82 2 - 82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 *-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-15 3-85 4-** NATI ONAL -13.9 -22.1 1 26.7 133.4 139.4 126.9 128.8 135.9 27.8 144.5 3-86 INCOME B A S I S FAEPAft EO ftV F EDERAL RESEUVE BANK OF S T . L O U I S A P R I L 2 3 » 1 967_____________________________________________ HISTORICAL SOURCES OF NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS DATA Estimates for the series in the regular quarterly presentation of NIPA tables for 1983-85 are published in the July 1986 Survey of Current Business. Estimates for NIPA series for 1929-82 are published in The National Income and Product Accounts of the United States, 1929-82: Statistical Tables. For further information and prices, write to the National Income and Wealth Division (BE-54), Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230. 19 I NVENTORI ES COMPARED WI TH MONTHLY SALES MANUFACTURING AND TRADE SEASONALLY ADJ USTED .72 .68 .64 .60 .56 .52 .48 .44 .40 .36 SOURCE: «BEGINNING IN 1982, I N VENT ORY DATA REFL ECT CHANGES U . S . D E P A R T M E N T OF COMMERCE I N E S T I M A T I O N PROCEDURES. SHADED AREAS R E P R E S E N T P E R I O D S OF B U S I N E S S R E C E S S I O N S . LA T E S T DATA P L O T T E D : FEBRUARY P R E L I M I N A R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . 20 LOUI S
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