Full text of National Economic Trends : April 1983
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National Economic Trends Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis April 1983 The nation^ output o f goods and services rose at a 3.1 percent annual rate from the fourth quarter o f 1982 to the first quarter of 1983, the fastest rate of increase in two years. Although recognition o f the first quarter as one o f recovery from the 1981-82 recession awaits the o ffic ia l judgment o f the National Bureau of Economic Research, recent developments suggest that the fourth quarter o f 1982 w ill be designated a business cycle trough. The chief basis fo r the expectation o f continued near-term economic expansion is that total spending is being driven by rapid growth in the money stock (M l). Since the third quarter o f 1981, M l has grown at a rapid 14.3 percent rate. The spending side of fiscal actions, on the other hand, is sending mixed signals regarding the thrust o f the federal budget. A fte r increasing at a 17 percent rate over the previous three quarters, federal expenditures declined at an 8 percent rate in the first quarter. Monthly indicators do not provide a clear picture o f in the first quarter. Two important components of the U.S. o f coincident indicators turned upward; industrial production in the first quarter and payroll employment rose at a 0.5 total civilian employment, on the other hand, declined in the accelerating economic activity Department o f Com m erce’s list advanced at an 8.2 percent rate percent rate. R etail sales and first quarter. — Keith M. Carlson E C O N O M IC IN D IC A T O R S Compounded annual rates o f change IV/82 to 1/83 1/82 to IV/82 Policy measures Money stock (M l) Federal expenditures (N I A ) 14.9% -8.0 7.7% 17.0 Income and sales GNP R etail sales Personal income 9.1 -1.2 3.8 5.0 7.0 6.1 1.0 -2.1 4.3 3.1 8.2 0.6 -6.1 -5.2 -14.1 -0.2 0.5 -0.7 -2.5 -1.7 -2.1 Production R eal G N P Industrial production Employment T otal civilian Payroll III/ 81 to 1/82 7.0% 8.8 total c iv il ia n employment COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL________________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L MONTH___________________________________________________________________________ THOUSANDS MONTH 0*- PERSONS 1-82 2-82 3-82 8-81 9-8 1 10-81 11-61 12-81 6-82 4-82 5-82 2-83 9 -8 2 10-62 1 1-62 12-82 7-92 9-92 1-83 9 -ei -7 .0 10-61 -2 .1 11-81 -1 .9 0 .8 -1 .5 12-61 -3 .0 -1 .7 -4 .0 -6 .4 1-82 -2 .4 -1 .2 -2 .6 -3*2 0.1 2-82 - 2 *0 -1 .0 -2*0 -2 .1 0.1 0.1 3-82 -1 .9 -1 .0 -1 .8 -1 .9 -0 .3 -0 .5 -1 .2 4-62 -1 .8 - l. l -1 .7 -1 .8 —0 * 6 -0 .8 -1 .3 -1 .4 5-82 -0 .9 -0 .2 —0 . 6 -0 .5 0.8 0 .9 1.2 2.4 6 .3 6-62 - lr. 2 —0 . 6 -1 .0 -0 .9 0.0 -0 .0 -0 .0 0.3 1.2 -3 .7 7-82 -1 .2 -0 .6 -1 .0 -1 .0 -0 .2 -0 .2 -0 .3 -0 .0 0.4 -2 .4 -1 .1 8-62 -1 .0 -0 .5 -0 .8 -0 .7 0.0 -0 .0 -0 .0 0.2 0.6 -1 .2 0 .0 1.2 9-62 - l. l -0 .6 -0 .9 -0 .8 -0 .2 -0 .2 -0 .3 -0 .1 0.1 -1 .3 —0 . 6 -0 .3 -1 .7 10-62 -1 .3 -0 .9 -1 .2 -1 .1 —0 * 6 -0 .7 -0 .8 -0 .7 -0 .6 -2 .0 -1 .5 -1 .6 -3 .0 -4 .3 11-82 -1 .3 -0 .8 -1 .1 - l. l -0 .6 -0 .7 —0 . 7 -0 .7 -0 .6 -1 .7 -1 .3 -1 .4 -2 .2 -2 .4 -0 .5 12-82 —1 *2 -0 .8 -1 .1 -1 .0 —0 . 6 -0 .7 -0 .7 -0 .7 -0 .6 -1 .5 -1 .2 -1 .2 -1 .8 -1 .8 -0 .5 -0 .5 - l. l -0 .8 -1 .0 -1 .0 -0 .5 -0 .6 -0 .6 —0 . 6 -0 .5 -1 .3 -1 .0 -1 .0 -1 .4 -1 .3 -0 .3 -0 .2 0.1 1-63 1Q 0,1 £4_ 3.1 1 0 0 .229 99.677 99.666 99.695 9 9,597 9 9,484 9 9,99 4 99,681 99,568 9 9.663 99,5 43 99,176 9 9,136 99,09 3 99,103 2-63 -1 .1 -0 .7 —1 . 0 -0 .9 -0 .5 -0 .6 —0 . 6 —0 . 6 -0 .5 -1 .2 -0 .9 -0 .9 -1 .2 -1 .2 -0 .3 -0 .3 -0 .2 -0 .5 3-63 -1 .0 -0 .7 -0 .9 -0 .8 -0 .5 -0 .5 -0 .5 -0 .5 -0 .4 - l. l —0 . 8 -0 .7 -1 .0 -0 .9 -0 .2 -0 .1 0 .0 0 .0 0.5 8 -S I 9-F l 10-81 T i - 6 1 12-61 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 5-82 6-62 7-82 8-82 9-62 10-82 11-82 12-82 1-83 2-63 99,063 99,1 03 * önth in it ia l PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL MONTH IN IT IA L 6-81 9-61 10-81 11-61 12-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 MONTH 5-82 6-82 THOUSANOS OF PERSONS 7-8 2 9-61 0.5 10-81 —0 . 6 -1 .8 11-61 -1 .4 -2 .4 -3 .0 12-61 -2 .2 -3 .1 -3 .8 -4 .6 1-62 -2 .3 -2 .9 -3 .3 -3 .5 -2 .4 2-62 -1 .9 -2 .4 -2 .5 -2 .3 -1 .2 -0 .0 3-62 -1 .9 -2 .3 -2 .4 -2 .3 -1 .5 —1 . 0 -2 .0 4-62 -2 .0 -2 .4 -2 .5 -2 .4 -1 .8 -1 .7 -2 .5 -2 .9 5-62 -1 .7 -2 .0 -2 .0 -1 .8 -1 .3 -1 .0 -1 .3 -0 .9 1.1 6-82 -1 .9 -2 .2 -2 .3 -2 .2 -1 .8 -1 .6 -2 .0 -2 .0 -1 .6 -4 .3 7-62 -2 .1 -2 .4 -2 .5 -2 .4 -2 .1 -2 .0 -2 .4 -2 .5 -2 .4 -4 .1 8-62 -2 .2 -2 .4 -2 .5 -2 .5 -2 .2 -2 .2 -2 .5 -2 .6 -2 .5 -3 .7 -3 .5 -2 .9 9-62 -2 .1 -2 .3 -2 .3 -2 .3 -2 .0 -2 .0 -2 .3 -2 .3 -2 .2 -3 .0 -2 .5 -1 .8 8-82 9-82 10-62 11-82 12-82 1-83 2-63 91,36 3 91,224 9 0,996 90,642 9 0,460 9 0,459 9 0,304 90,083 9 0,1^6 8 9,839 -4 .0 89,535 89.312 -0 .6 89,264 10-82 -2 .3 -2 .5 -2 .6 -2 .5 -2 .3 -2 .3 -2 .6 -2 .7 -2 .7 -3 .4 -3 .2 -2 .9 -2 .9 -5 .1 11-62 -2 .3 -2 .5 -2 .5 -2 .5 -2 .3 -2 .3 -2 .5 -2 .6 -2 .5 -3 .1 -2 .9 -2 .6 -2 .5 -3 .4 -1 .7 12-62 -2 .3 -2 .5 -2 .5 -2 .5 -2 .3 -2 .3 -2 .5 -2 .6 -2 .5 -3 .0 -2 .8 -2 .6 -2 .5 -3. 1 -2 .1 -2 .5 1-63 -1 .9 -2 .0 -2 .0 -2 .0 -1 .8 -1 .7 -1 .9 -1 .8 -1 .7 -2 .1 -1 .7 -1 .4 -1 .1 -1 .2 0.2 1.2 4.9 88,877 88,750 88,5 65 88,920 2-63 -1 .9 -2 .0 -2 .1 -2 .0 -1 .8 -1 .8 -1 .9 -1 .9 -1 .8 -2 .1 -1 .8 -1 .5 -1 .3 -1 .4 -0 .5 -0 .1 1.2 -2 .5 3-63 -1 .7 -1 .8 -1 .8 -1 .8 -1 .6 -1 .5 -1 .6 -1 .6 -1 .5 -1 .7 -1 .5 -1. 1 -0 .9 -0 .9 -0 .1 0 .4 1.3 -0 .4 1.6 8-81 9-81 10-81 11-61 12-81 1-Ô2 2-82 3-82 4-82 5-82 6-82 7-82 8-82 9-82 10-82 11-82 12-82 1-63 2-63 88.735P 88 , 8 54-P W T I à l H6Ki T h P - P R E L IM IN A R Y _ 100»355 2 p ^ p AREe f eY f £ d e r a l ~ r e s e r v e ^^ b â n k T ô ^ A P R IL I , 1 9 8 3 st. l o u is - EMPLOYMENT RATIO SCALE MILLIONS OF ¡975 RATIO PERSONS 1976 1977 1978 MILLIONS ADJUSTED seasonally 1979 1980 1981 SOURCEt PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL LATE ST PL OT T E D t M ARC H P R E L I MI NA RY DATA R AT ES OF CHANGE FOR PE RI O D S UNEMPLOYMENT SEASONALLY 1982 SCALE PERSONS 1983 U . S. DE P A R T M E N T OF LABOR INDICATED. PR E P A R E D 8Y FE DERAL PERCENT OF R E SER VE BANK OF ST. LOUI S RATE ADJUSTED PERCENT 12. 0 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 SOURCE! P ER CE NT LATEST Of C I V I L I A N LABOR DA TA PLOTTEDi U.S. 1982 1983 DEPARTMENT OF LA BOR FO RCE M AR CH PREPARED 3 BY FEDER AL RE S E R V E BANK OF ST. LOU IS 4.0 CLWSOHER PRICE INOEX FOR a l l URttAN CONSUMERS, S E A SONALLY ADJUSTED* ----------- -------- CQrtPDUNQEù AÌ^Nu A l KATcS^-Qf- C h a m (;i ____________________ ■ILM I ^ a l ________________________________________________________________________________ I N IT IA L rtQLIIii--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 9 6 7 c l 0 0 MOM H auai 9-81 12.9 10-81 8 .5 4 .4 11-81 7.6 5 .0 _L-d2 2-BZ Q-A 2> 10^&2 ac 1 1" ..., lZ -til 9-81_ lU -tti.. J t r a? 2 - 8 3 -----2 7 9 ,0 2 ^ ,0 5.7 12-81 6.9 5.0 5,3 4.3 1-82 6.2 4.6 4.7 4*1 3.5 2-82 5 .3 3.8 i* 7 3*0 2 .1 0 .9 7A 7-* 3-82 4*4 3*1 2*9 2 .1 1*3 0*2 -0 *4 A—82 4*3 3*1 2*9 2*3 1 .7 1.1 1.3 3.0 5-8 2 5 .2 A*3 4.3 4.0 3*9 4 ,0 5*0 7*9 6-82 6*0 5.3 5*4 5.4 5*5 5.9 7*2 9*8 13*4 13*8 7-82 6*1 5*5 5*6 S .6 5.7 6 .1 7.2 9,2 11,3 10.5 7.3 8 -82_ 5*9 5*3 5.4 5 .* 5*8 6 .6 8.1 9.4 8.2 5 .5 3.8 9-8 2 5.6 5.0 5.0 5.0 5*2 5*8 6*9 7*7 6*4 4*1 2.5 5 .0 ?A *.A 7A 4.0 7A 6.9 13,0 ?<*n *r> 2 9 1 .7 7 9 7 - A. 797-9 1.2 10-82 5*5 5*0 5.0 5*0 5*0 5*2 5*7 6*6 7*2 6*1 4 .3 3.3 3.1 5*0 11-82 5.2 4.6 4.6 4*6 4.5 4 .6 5.1 5 .8 6.2 5*1 3.4 2*5 2.1 2.5 0.0 12-82 4 .6 4*1 4*1 3*9 3*9 3 .9 4*2 4*7 5*0 3.9 2*3 1.3 0.7 0.5 -1 .6 -3 .2 1-83 4*5 4*0 3 .9 3*8 3 .7 3 .7 4*0 4.5 4 .6 3 .6 2*3 1.4 1 .0 0.9 —0 . 4 -0 .6 2.1 2-63 4,1 3*6 3 ,5 3*4 3*3 3*3 3*5 3.8 3*9 2*9 -1.7 0.9 . 0*4 0*2 -0 .9 -1 .2 —0 . 2 -2 .4 3-83 3*9 3*5 3*4 3*3 3*2 3,^L 3 ,3 3*6 3,7 ¿ .8 1.7 1.(2 0.6 0 .5 -0 *4 -0 .5 0 .4 -0 .4 1 .6 8-81 9-81 10-81 1 1 -til 12-81 2-82 3-82 4-82 5-82 6-82 7-82 8-82 9-82 10-82 11-82 12-82 1-83 2-63 ♦DATA B t G l N N iN G 19 8 3 1-82 INCUKPU k a T é S R t N Ì A u 2 9 4 .1 7 9*.1 2 9 3 .fi 7 9 *.? 7 9 3 -A I N I T I A L MONTH EQUIVALENCE MEASURE * PRcPAREO BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST* A P R IL 2 2 . 1 9 8 3 LOUIS PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, FIN I S H E D GU O O i - S E A SuNALLY AUJUS T E O * ________________ COMP O U N D E D ANNU A L K A T E S Oh CHANGE________________ TERMINAL MONTH I N I T I A L IrtONTH 8 -81 1 <x> *1 10-81 V —81 10-81 11-81 12-81 1 -82 2-8 2 3-8 2 4 -8 2 5 -8 2 6 —8 4 8 -82 9-8 2 10-82 11-82 12-82 l-t» 3 273*0 5 .4 274*2 11-81 5 .1 4 .7 4 .0 5 .1 4 .8 4 .5 4 .9 1-8 2 5 .G 4 .8 4 .6 4. V 275*1 276*2 277*3 4 .9 2-82 4 .3 4 .0 3 .7 3 .5 2 .9 o .v 3 -8 2 3 .2 2 .8 2 .3 l.v 0 .9 -1 .1 -3 .0 4 -82 3.0 2 .6 2*1 1*8 1 .0 -0 .3 —0 . 9 1 .3 5 -8 2 2 .7 2 .3 1 .8 1 .5 0 .8 -0 .2 —C . 6 C• 7 277*5 276*8 277*1 277*1 0 .0 6-8 2 3.t> 3 .4 3 .1 3*0 2 .7 2 .3 2 .6 4 .6 6 .2 7-8 2 3 .8 3 .6 3*4 3 .3 3 .1 2 .8 3 .2 *►♦8 6 .1 9 . 2 ____ 5 . 7 8-8 2 4 ,0 3 .8 3*6 3 .6 3 .4 3 .2 3 .6 5*0 6 .0 8.C 9-8 2 3 .8 8 2 7 9 .9 12*8 281*2 5 .7 5 .7 282*5 3 .4 3 .4 3 .2 3 .0 3 .3 4 .4 5 .0 6 .3 4. 2 3 .5 1 .3 3 .6 3 .5 3 .5 3 .3 3 .1 3 .4 4 .4 4.V 5 .9 4 .2 3 .8 2 .8 4*3 3 .6 3. V 4 .8 5 .3 6*2 4. V 4 .7 4 .3 5 .9 3 *t> 282*8 283*8 11-82 4 .0 3 .9 3 .8 3*8 3 .7 12-82 3 .v 3. b 3 .7 3 .7 3 .5 3.«» 3 .7 4 .5 4 .9 5 .6 4. A 4 .1 3*8 4*6 4 .7 2 .1 1-83 ¿ .V 2 .7 2 .6 2 .5 2 .3 2. 1 2 .2 2 .7 2 .8 3 .2 l.v 1 .3 0 .4 0*2 -1 .1 -5*1 -1 1 .V 2 —8 3 2. v 2 .7 2 .5 2 .4 2 .2 2 .0 2. 1 2*6 2 .7 3*0 l.v 1 .3 t .6 0*5 -0 *4 -2 .9 -5 .3 1 .7 3 -83 2*6 2 .4 2 .3 2 .1 2 .o 1 .8 1 .8 2*2 2*3 2*6 l* _ 5 „ 1 * <L G .3 0 .1 -0*7 -2 .6 -4 .1 0. 0 -1 .7 5-82 4-82 5—82 8 -0 2 9 -8 2 10-SZ 11-82 12-82 1 -S ^ 2 -8 ^ 9 -81 * U » T a Eg* m u K 100 2 -8 3 5*9 5 .6 12-81 0 1 00 ,fv 190 7 * 7 -82 10-81 l i - 8 l H j n Th S ago r r - 8 1 "' I-e 2 K tVlSEO " 2 -b T ' 6 —ij 2 7—c «- 7 .4 285*5 2 8 6 .0 283*0 283*4 283*0 INITIAL MONTrt ÌU K t FLcCT LMTt K tP U K T I N G FKEP a REÓ »V f*E OfcKAL K E ^ i R V t A P R I L 1 5 , 19 8 3 dAN* uF ST* LùuJS RATIO PRICES SCALE RATIO SCALE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX 8ECINNIH© JANUARY 197« 15 FOR ALL URBAN CONSUMERS (CPI-U). H C PI -U OATA BEGINNING 1983 INCORPORATE A RENTAL EQUIVALENCE MEASURE FOR HOMEOINERSHIP COSTS. UJCPI-U OLD SERIES (TO BE DISCONTINUED IN JUNE 1983» PERCENTAfttS ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIODS LATEST DATA PLOTTED! INDICATED. MARCH PREPARED 8T FEDERAL RESERVE BANK Of ST. LOUIS r a tio S CALE PRODUCER P R IC ES PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIODS LATEST DATA PLOTTED. MARCH INDICATED. PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK Of ST. LOUIS 5 PRUO0C6R PRICE IN D E X , F IN IS H E D CONSUMER FOOOS - SEASONALLY ADJUSTED* ______________________CQMKJUNOÉU ANNUAL ftATÉS Q f ChaNGE_____________________________ TERMINAL________________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L MONTH__________________________________________________________________________1 9 6 7 « 100 MONTH 8-81 i-e 2 2-82 3-82 4-82 6-82 7-82 9 -81 10-81 11-81 12-81 5—82 8-82 9 -8 2 10-82 11-82 12-82 1-83 2-83 9-81 -5 .0 10-81 -3 .5 -1 .9 255 .2 11-81 -4 .6 - 4 .4 -6 .8 12-81 -3 .5 25 4 .8 2 5 3 .3 -2 .9 -3 .5 0 .0 1-82 —0 . 1 1.2 2.2 7.1 14.6 2-82 1.2 2 .5 3.6 7 .3 11.1 2 5 3 .3 256 .2 7.8 257 .8 2 5 7 .4 3-82 C• 7 1.7 2.5 4 .9 6.6 2.8 -1 .8 4-82 3.1 4.3 5.4 8 .0 10.2 8.7 9 .2 2 1.4 5-82 3. 1 4 .2 5.1 7 .2 8 .7 7.3 7 .2 1 2.0 3.3 6-82 3.4 4.4 5.2 7 .0 8.2 7.0 6 .8 9 .8 4.4 5.6 7-82 1.2 1.9 2 .3 3.5 4 .0 2.4 1.3 2.1 -3 .6 -6 .9 -1 7 .9 8-82 1.2 1 .8 2.2 3 .2 3.6 2.2 1.2 1.9 -2 .5 -4 .3 -9 .0 0 .9 9-82 0.7 1.2 1.5 2 .4 2 .6 1 .2 0.3 0 .7 -3 .0 -4 .5 -7 .7 -2 .1 -5 .0 2 6 1 .6 2 6 2 .3 263 .5 10-82 0.6 1.1 1.3 2.1 2.3 1.0 0 .2 0.5 -2 .6 -3 .7 -5 .9 11-82 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.9 2.1 0.9 0 .2 0 .5 -2 .2 -3 .1 —4 * 12-82 0.7 1.1 1.3 2 .0 2.1 l. l 0 .4 0 .7 -1 .7 -2 .3 259 .2 2 5 9 .4 2 5 8 .3 -1 .5 -2 .7 -0 .5 -1 .2 -1 .8 -0 .2 0.0 -3 .6 -0 .5 -0 .8 0.6 1.2 2 .3 —0 . 1 tt 2 58 .2 2 58 .2 2 5 8 .7 1-83 C. 5 0 .9 1. 1 1.7 1.8 0.8 C.2 0 .4 -1. ? -2 .3 -3.4 -O.G -1 .1 0 .0 0.0 -2 .3 2-83 0.9 1.3 1.5 2 .0 2.2 1.3 0.8 1.0 -0 .8 -1 .3 -2 .1 0.4 0.3 1.4 1.9 2 .5 2.6 7. 7 3-83 1.2 1.5 1.7 2 .3 2.5 1.6 1.2 1.4 -0 .2 -0 .5 -1 .2 l. l 1.1 2.2 2.7 3.4 3 .6 6.9 6.2 8-ai 9-81 10-81 11-81 12-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 5-82 6-82 7-82 8-82 9-82 10-82 11-82 12-82 1-83 2-83 ♦DATA FUK FuuR Mì JNT h S AGO REVISED TU REFLECT LATE iN ifiA L RtPORTlNG 2 5 8 .2 2 59 .8 2 61 .1 MONTH HRUOUCtK ✓R I C t INDEX » F IN IS H E D GOODS, tx C L U U lN G FoUDS - SEASONALLY AOJUSTEO* _____________________________ COMPUUNOEO ANNUAL R a TES OF CHANGt_________________________________ TERMINAL MONTh IN IT IA L 8-81 9-81 10-81 9-81 9. 1 10-81 8 .6 8.1 11-81 8.2 7.8 7 .6 11-81 12-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 5-82 MONTH 6-82 1967 * 7-82 8-82 9-82 10-82 11-82 12-82 1-6^ 27 6 .9 2 7 8 .7 2 8 0 .4 12-81 7 .7 7.3 6 .9 6 .2 1-82 6 .6 6 .0 5 .3 4 .1 2 .2 2-82 5.2 4.5 3.6 2.3 0 .4 -1 .3 3-82 4.0 3.1 2.2 0 .9 -0 .8 -2 .3 -3 .4 4-82 3.0 2.2 1.2 0 .0 -1 .5 -2 .7 -3 .4 -3 .4 5-82 2.5 1.7 0.9 -0 .2 -1 .4 -2 .3 -2 .7 -2 .3 -1 .3 6-82 3. ? 3.1 2.5 1 .8 1.1 0.9 1.5 3.2 6 .6 15.1 7-82 4.7 4.2 3.8 3.3 2 .9 3.1 4.0 5 .9 9.1 14.8 14.4 8-82 4. 6 4.5 4 .1 3.7 3.4 3.6 4.4 6. 1 8.6 12.1 10.6 9-62 4.7 4 .3 4.0 3.6 3 .4 3.5 4.2 5.6 7.4 9 .7 2 81 .8 ¿ 8 2 .3 28 2 .0 281 .2 28 0 .4 28 0 .1 2 8 3 .4 8 .U 2 86 .6 6.9 288 .2 4.9 3.0 28 8 .9 10-82 4.8 4 .5 4 .2 3 .9 3.6 3.8 4 .4 5.6 7.2 9.0 7 .5 5.3 4.5 6.0 11-82 5.1 4 .8 4.6 4 .3 4 .1 4.4 5.0 6.1 7.5 9 .0 7 .9 6.3 6.1 7 .7 12-82 4.9 4 .7 4.4 4.2 4 .0 4 .2 4 .7 5 .7 6.9 8 .1 7 .0 5.5 5.2 5 .9 5.9 1-83 3 .6 3 .3 3 .0 2 .7 2.4 2 .4 2.7 3.4 4.2 4 .9 3.5 1.8 0.8 0 .2 -1 .6 —6 . 8 - 1 5 . 2 2-83 3.4 3.1 2.8 2.5 2 .2 2.3 2.0 3. 3.8 4.4 3.1 1 .6 0.7 0.2 -l.l -4.4 -7 .7 C.4 3-83 :>.<) 2.7 2 .4 2.1 1.8 l.b 2 .0 2.5 3.0 3 .5 2 .3 0 —0 . 5 -1 .7 -4 .3 -6 .5 -1 .9 -4 .i 8 - ill V- 8 1 10 - 8 1 11-81 12-81 l-e2 2-d2 3-82 4-82 5-82 6-8 2 9-82 10-8 2 11-82 12-82 1-S3 ¿-8a * 0 AT A F U K 10 0 2-83 l-UUR MOn T h S AGO R E V l S t D lU K t hLfcC T l a t e 1 IN IT IA L KtPUR r I NG .6 0.0 7-82 8-82 2 9 0 .3 9.5 2 9 2 .5 2.5 293 .1 289 .1 2 8 9 .2 28 8 .2 MONTh _L prepared A P R IL 15, » y Fe d e r a l R t b t R v t 1983 ò a n *. uf st. l o u is INDUSTRIAL RATIO PRODUCTION RATIO SCALE 1967-100 1975 SEASONALLY 1976 1977 1978 1979 SCALE 1967-100 ADJ UST ED 1980 1981 1982 1983 PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INOICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED» MARCH PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS IN DU STR IAL PRODUCTION COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATfcS OF CHANGL TERMINAL MONTH IN IT IA L 9-81 10-81 11-81 -14.6 10-81 -1 6 .3 -1 8 .1 11-81 -1 7 .7 -1 9 .2 -2 0 .3 12-81 -18*6 —1 9 . 9 -2 0 .9 -2 1 .4 1-82 -1 9 .0 -20 . 1 1 o 8-81 9-81 -2 0 .9 2-82 -1 3 .4 -1 3 .2 -1 2 .0 12-81 1-92 2—62 3-82 4-82 MONTH 5-82 6-8 2 196 7 * 7-82 8-82 9-82 10-82 11-82 1-93 1 51 .6 14 6 .3 0 CM 140 .7 1 -9 .0 14 3 .4 -2 .1 14 2 .9 20.5 3-82 -12.9 -1 2 .6 -1 1 .5 -9 .1 -4 .7 4 .3 -9 .6 -12.8 -1 2 .5 -11 .6 -9 .7 - 6.5 -1 .4 -1 0 .8 -1 2 .0 5-82 -1 2 .^ -1 2 .0 -1 1 .1 - 9. 5 - 6.9 -3 .2 -1 0 .0 -1 0 .1 141 .7 140 .2 -8 .2 13V .2 13 8 .7 6-82 -1 1 .5 -1 1.2 -1 0 .3 -8 .7 -6 .4 - 3.4 - 8.6 -8 .2 - 6.3 7-82 -10.5 -1 0 .u -9 .1 -7 .6 -5 .4 -2 .7 —6 . 7 - 6.0 -3 .9 -4 .2 138 .8 -1 .7 0.9 8-82 -9. V -9 .5 -8 .5 -7 .1 -5 .2 -2 .8 -6 . 2 - 5.5 - 3 . 8 -2 .3 -1 .3 - 3.4 9-82 -9 .8 -9 .4 -8 .6 -7 .3 -5 .6 -3 .6 -6 .6 -6 .1 -4 .9 -4 .0 -4 .0 -6 .3 -9 .1 10-82 -10.1 -9 .7 -9 .0 -7 .9 -6 .4 -4 .7 -7 .5 -7 .1 —6 . 3 -5 .9 -6. 3 -6 .6 -11.1 -9 .5 -8 .8 -7 .8 “ <>.4 -4. V -7 .4 -7. 1 -6 .4 -6 .1 “6 . 4 -e . 2 -Y . 7 - 1 0 . 0 -6 .8 -v. 1 -8 .8 -8 .0 -7 .0 -5 .7 -4 .3 -6 .4 -6 . 1 -5. 3 -4 .9 -5.0 - 6 .1 -6 .8 -6 .0 -2 .2 2 .7 11-82 13 8 .4 ________ _____________________________________ __________ 1 3 7 . 3 13 5 .7 -13. 1 134 .9 135 .2 1-83 -7 .7 - 7 .2 -6 .4 -5 .4 “4 . 0 -2.5 —4 . 3 -3 .8 -2. 8 -2 .1 -1 .8 -2 . 3 -2 .1 -0 .2 4.5 10.7 19. 3 2-83 -7 . 1 - 6 .6 -5 .8 -4 .8 -3 .5 -2.0 -3 .7 -3 .2 -2 .2 -1 .5 -1 .2 - I .5 -1 .2 0.5 4.3 8.2 11.1 5.6 3-83 -6 .1 -5 .6 -4 .8 -3 .7 - 2.4 -1 .0 -2 .5 -1 .8 -0 .9 -0 .1 0.4 2 . 6 ____ 6 . 1 9 .6 1 2.0 8.6 3=FI 9-ei 10 - 8 1 11-81 12-81 r^F2 5-82 b^2 11-82 12-82 3 -d 2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IK i I T I P- 2-83 1 49 .1 4-82 12-82 12-82 100 P R tLlH lN A R V al 0 . 3 ____ 0 . 9 9-*2 10-82 137 .2 13 7 .6 K 1 3 . 9 ________ 1 3 9 . 1 1 - 8 ;> MOn T h ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ PR£ P AR10 BY FEDbRAL R t S t R V t AP RI L I 5 t 1983 7 OAHA OF ST . LÜUÎS P PERSONAL RATIO SCALE TRILLIONS MONTHLY OF DOLLARS TOTALS IN C O M E AT SEASONALLY A N NUAL RATIO RATES TRILLIONS ADJUSTED OF SCALE DOLLARS 2. .9 2. ,8 2. 2. .6 .5 .4 .3 2. . 2 . 1 .0 .9 .8 .7 .6 .5 . I .4 . 2 I . I . . 1 .0 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 SOURCEt U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED. MARCH PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS PERSONAL INCOME COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERM INAL MONTH T—ELL 1U -H I i-a z 1 I-B 1 9-81 9.7 10-81 6 .9 4-? 11 —ft 1 6.6 5*0 * -ft 12-81 4 .7 3-1 2-5 -0 -7 is oc 1 H -H l . 3 - a? 5-fi? 6 —fl ? 7.-8 ? a -« ? . -9—82 -lQ-=8-2 - U - 8 2 ■L2.ar.a2. I ttA Ì-. B I L L I O N S OF ------ DOLLARS-----ANNUAL RATES ¿Tflj---- 2 , 4 7 8 , >6 2 4 8 7 *2 2 , 499 1.0 2 , 4 9 7 , >6 1-82 3.9 2 .5 1.9 -0^0 0.7 2-82 4.5 3 .4 3.2 2 .4 4.0 7 .3 3-82 4 .1 3.3 3.1 2 .4 3.4 4.8 4-82 4 .7 4 .0 3.9 3.5 4.6 6.0 5.3 8.4 5-82 5.3 4 .7 4.8 4 .6 5.7 7 .0 6 .9 9.3 6-82 5.2 4 .7 4 .8 4 .7 5 .6 6.6 6.4 7 . ft 7.5 4.8 7-82 5 .7 5 .3 5.5 5 .4 6.3 7.3 7 .3 8.5 8 .6 7.8 8-82 5 .4 5 .0 5.1 5 .0 5.7 6.5 6.3 7 .1 6 .8 5.7 6 .7 1 .7 9-82 5.2 4 .8 4.8 4 .7 5.4 5.9 5.8 6.3 5.9 4.9 4.9 2.1 2.4 ? » * 9 7 .12 10-82 5.2 4 .9 4 .9 4.8 5.4 5 .9 5 .8 6 .3 5 .9 5 .1 5.1 3.3 4.1 2 »M>9< 2,4 9 9 1 - ? r* 1 * ,■0 2 .3 2 # M 8 , >6 t«i 10.2 .7 ,3 10.8 2f «,3 ? r «k<i7i .n 11-82 5 .4 5.1 5 .2 5.2 5 .7 6 .2 6 .1 6 .6 6 .3 5 .7 5 .8 4.6 5 .6 7 .3 8 .7 12-82 5 .3 5 .0 5 .1 5 .0 5 .5 5 .9 5 .8 6 .2 5 .9 5 .3 5 .4 4 .4 5.1 6.0 6 .0 3 .4 1 -8 3 5 .2 4 .9 4 .9 4 .9 5 .3 5 .7 5 .6 5 .9 5 .6 5.1 5. 1 4 .2 4 .7 5.2 *>.rt 3 -7 00 1 4 .9 4 .7 4 .7 4.6 5 .0 5 .4 5 .2 5 .5 5 .2 4.6 4 .6 3 .7 4 .1 4 .4 4.1 2 .6 2 .1 1 -7 3 -8 3 5.Q 4 ,8 4 .8 4 .8 5 .1 5 .5 5 .3 5 .6 £ *3 4 .8 4^a 4 .1 4 .5 4 .8 4.6 3 .6 3 .7 4 .0 8-81 9 -8 1 10-81 11-81 12-81 1-82 2 -82 3 -82 4 -8 2 5-82 6 -8 2 7-8 2 8-82 9 -8 2 10-82 11-82 12-82 ? 1677..7 rn 1-6 3 7 . 6 * * . .3 6 .8 ? .6 5 8 -9 P 2 -8 3 I N I T I A L MONTH P- P R E L IM IN A R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO U IS 4£fiJJ_L9 . 1983 8 RETAIL RATIO SALES RATIO SCALE BILLIONS OF 1975 DOLLARS 1976 S EAS ONALLY 19 7 7 1978 BILLIONS ADJUSTED 1979 1980 1981 1982 OF SCALE DOLLARS 1983 SOURCE* U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt FEBRUARY, MARCH ADVANCE ESTIMATE PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS . . . . . Kt COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL MONTH IN IT IA L 9-81 11-81 9-81 -2*8 10-81 -1 0 .0 -1 6 .6 11-81 -6 .2 -7 .9 1 .8 12-81 -4 .5 -5 .1 1 .2 0 .7 12-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 MONTH Ì5—82 6-82 M IL L IO N S OF OOLLARS 7-82 8-82 9-82 10-82 11-82 12-82 1-83 8 7,231 87,358 -5 .9 -6 .7 -3 .1 -5 .5 -1 1 .3 -1 .6 -1 .4 2.8 3 .2 4 .5 23.0 -2 .1 -1 .9 1 .3 1 .2 1.3 8.3 4-82 —o . 5 -0 .2 2 .9 3 .1 3 .7 9.2 2 .9 11.0 5-82 3.1 3.8 7.1 8 .1 9 .6 15.5 13.2 23 .3 6-82 -0 .2 0 .1 2 .4 2 .5 2.8 5 .8 1 .9 4 .2 0 .9 - 25 .6 C1 D 87,409 1-82 0 .9 1 .2 3.4 3.6 4.1 6 .9 3.9 6 .2 4 .6 —8 . 6 8-82 0 .3 0.6 2.5 2.6 2 .9 5 .1 2 .3 3.8 2.1 -7 .5 3 .2 -5 .2 9-82 1.2 1.5 3.3 3 .5 3.8 5.9 3.6 5.1 3.9 -3 .0 6.C 2.9 11.7 10-82 2. 1 2.4 4.2 4.4 4 .8 6 .8 4 .9 6 .3 5.6 0 .2 8.0 6 .6 13.0 14 .3 11-82 3.3 3.8 5.6 5 .9 6.4 8.3 6 .8 8 .3 7.9 3.7 10.9 10.5 16.3 18.6 23.1 12-82 3. 1 3.5 5.1 5.4 5.8 7.5 6.0 7.3 6 .8 3.1 8.9 8.2 11.9 11.9 10.7 -0 .4 2.8 3*1 4.6 4 .8 5.1 6.6 5.3 6.3 5.8 2.5 7.2 6 .4 8.9 ~~8 . 2 6.3 -1 .3 86,542 88,049 87,701 —4 • 6 88,468 90,813 36.9 88,603 69,469 12 . 4 89,069 89,897 90,905 92 »492 92,459 -2 .1 92,295 91,197P 2-83 1.8 2.1 3.4 3 .5 3.7 5.0 3.6 4.4 3.7 0.6 4 .4 3.3 4 .8 175 1 .0 -5 .5 -7 .9 -1 3 .4 3-«3 1.9 2.2 3.4 3.5 3 .7 4.9 3.6 4 .3 3.8 0*9 4.4 3.4 4.8 3 v6 1.6 —3 . 1 —4 . 0 -5 .0 __ _ 2-83 8 8,562 2-82 1-83 __ 10-81 00 1 1 8-81 ___ ^ 3 . AÀ-&1 ___ L1 4 2 . -JinsZ.. ...hrjkZ— IN IT IA L _.énü2 . _ 7=jì2__ì-a2_. 9 - 8 2 JJLraZ_12^â2_ - l - Q i , 4.5 . 91,5 l5 c ________ MONTH -^ _ ^ K f c L i a m A ß j L _ fc- t S T i r t A T t D Ph.EP.ARtL) Ö-Y. Ft_DfcKaL . KfcSJiR V.£_ txAtm. JjJb _SI -.-LULU-i* A P K l L 12» 19 83 9 HOURLY COMPENSATION, BUSINESS SECTOR COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL_________________________________________________________________________I N I T I A L QUARTER_______________________________________________________________________ 19 7 7 « 10 0 QUARTER 2-78 1-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 1-80 4-80 3-81 4-81 1-82 2 —82 3-82 2-79 3-79 4-79 2-80 3-80 1-81 2-81 2-78 1 CD 7.4 8.1 1 0 7 ,3 8.9 1 0 9 .6 4-78 8 .7 9 .3 9.8 1-79 9.4 10.1 1 0.7 1 1 .5 2-79 1 0.0 10.0 1 1 2 .2 1 15 ,3 8.6 9 .7 9 .3 9 .7 9.9 10.0 9 .2 9.9 4-79 9.2 9 .5 9 .7 9 .6 9 .0 9.2 8.6 9.6 1 0.0 10.1 1 0.2 9*9 10.3 10.6 » 00 o 9.2 3-79 1 1 7 ,7 120*5 1 23 .0 12.6 1 2 6 .7 9.8 10.1 10.2 1 0 .3 10.1 10.5 1 1 .7 10.8 9.8 10.1 10.2 10.3 o o H •o • o 2-80 3-80 1 0.3 10.5 11.1 1 0 .4 9.9 4-80 9.7 1 0.0 10.1 10. 1 9 .9 10.2 10.2 1 0.7 10.0 9 .6 9*3 130 .0 1 3 3 .1 9 .9 10.2 10.3 10.3 10.2 10.5 1 0 .9 10.5 10.4 10 , 6 12*0 9.7 9 .9 1 0.0 10.0 9.9 1 0 .0 10.1 1 0.3 9.9 9.6 9*5 9.6 7.3 3-81 9 .7 9.8 9 .9 9 .9 9.8 9.9 9.9 10.1 9 .7 9.5 9 .4 9 .4 8.2 9.0 4-81 9.5 9 .7 9 .7 9 .7 9.6 9.7 9 .6 9.8 9 .4 9.1 9 .0 8.9 7.9 8.2 7.3 1-82 9 .4 9 .5 9 .6 9 .5 9 .4 9 .5 9.4 9.5 9.1 8 .9 8.7 8.6 7 .8 7 .9 7*4 7,5 2-82 9.2 9.3 9 .4 9 .3 9.2 9.2 9.2 9 .2 8 .9 8.6 8.4 8 .3 7.6 7.6 7*2 7.1 6 .8 3-82 9.1 9 .2 9 .2 9.1 9.0 9 .0 8.9 9.0 8 .6 8 .3 8.2 8.0 7 .3 7.3 6.9 6 .8 6.5 6.1 8 .9 8.9 9.0 8.9 8.7 8.7 8 .7 8.7 8.3 8 .1 7 .9 7 .7 7.1 7.0 6 .6 6 .5 6 .1 5.8 5.5 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-7 8 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 1-81 2-81 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 \+ 1-81 2-81 1 CO 136 .1 10.4 1 4 0 .0 1 42 .5 1 45 .6 1 4 8 .2 1 5 0 .9 1 5 3 .4 1 5 5 .7 157*8 I N I T I A L QUARTER OUTPUT PER HOUR OF ALL PERSONS, BUSINESS SECTOR __________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL SATES QF CHANGE__________ TERMINAL QUARTER I N I T I A L <3UARTER 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-70 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-78 0*8 3-78 0*2 -0 .4 4-78 0,4 0.2 0.8 1-79 -0 .1 -0 .4 -0 .4 -1 .6 2-79 —0 . 6 -0 .9 -1 .1 -2 .0 -2 .4 3-79 -0 .8 -1 *1 —1 * 3 “ 2*0 -2 ,2 -2*0 4-79 -0 .8 -1 .1 -1 .2 -1 .7 -1 .7 -1*4 -0 .8 1-80 —0 . 6 -0 .8 -0 .9 -1 .2 -1 .1 -0*7 0*0 0*8 2-80 -1 .0 -1 .2 -1 .4 -1 *7 -1 *8 -1 .6 -1*5 -1*8 -4 *4 2-80 3—8 0 1977 * 4-80 1-81 2-81 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 100 3-82 100 .7 1 00 .6 100 .8 100 .4 99.8 99.3 99.1 99.3 9 8.2 3-80 —0 . 6 -0 .8 -0 .8 -1 .1 -1 .0 -0 .7 -0 .4 -0 *3 -0*8 2*9 4-80 -0 .4 —0 , 6 —0 * 6 -0 .7 —0 . 6 -0 .3 0.0 0,2 0 .0 2.3 1*6 1*3 1,4 _ 3,4 3 ,7 98 .9 9 9.3 1-81 0 .1 0 .0 0 .0 -0 .0 0.1 0.5 0*9 2-81 0.1 0.0 0*0 -0 .0 0.1 0 .4 0.8 1.1 1.1 2*5 2*4 2*8 0*0 3-81 0.1 0 .1 0. 1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0*9 Iti 1*1 2*3 2*1 2*3 0,6 1*2 4-81 -0 .1 -0 .1 »0.1 -0 .2 -0 .1 0.2 0*4 0 .6 0,5 1,4 1 ,1 0 ,9 -0 ,7 -1 ,0 -3 ,1 1-82 -0. 1 -0 .2 -0 .2 -0* 2 -0 .1 0.1 0 .3 0.4 0*4 1*0 0*7 0*6 -0*7 -0 *9 -2 .0 -0 .8 2-82 -0 .0 -0 .1 -0 .1 -0. 1 -0*0 0.2 0*4 0.5 0*4 1*1 0*8 0*7 -0*3 -0*4 -0 ,9 0.2 1.2 1,3 2,4 2,0 2,9 3.8 4.0 4-8 1 1-82 2-82 3-82 5,0 100 .7 10 0 .7 3-82 0.2 0.1 0 .1 0. 1 0*2 0 .4 0 .6 0.8 0*8 1*3 1,2 l. l 0*3 0*4 0,2 4-82 0.4 0 .3 0 .4 0. 3 0*5 0.7 0*9 1.0 1* 1 1* 6 1*5 1*4 0*8 1*0 0.9 1-78 2-78 3-78 1 -J 00 10 1 .0 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-8 0 4-80 1-81 2-81 3-81 1 00 .2 1 0 0 .0 10 0 .3 3.6 1 0 1 .2 10 2 .2 I N I T I A L QUARTER PREPAREO BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T * MARCH 1 , 1 9 8 3 10 LO UIS PRODUCTIVITY, RAT I 0 COMPENSATION, AND LABOR COSTS SCALE RAT I 0 1977-100 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SCALE 1977 -100 SOURCE-. U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS LATEST DATA PLOTTED! INDICATED, 4 T H QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. UN IT LABOR COSTS, BUSINESS SECTOR ________________________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF C H A TEMHI NAL_________________________________________________________________________I N I T I A L QUARTER _ _ QUARTER 4-79 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 3—8 Û 4—80 2- a o 1-80 2-78 5,e 3-78 7*6 N G E LOUIS __________ ___________ ____ ______________________1977 » i p p ______ 1-81 2 -fll i-R l 4 —f t 1 Î-H ? ? - ft ? l-ft? lO h .S 9*3 1 Oft 111 . * 4-78 8*2 9*4 9.5 1-79 9*3 10*5 11*1 12*8 2-79 9*7 10*7 11*2 12*0 11.2 1 14 - f t 117-9 3-79 10.1 11.0 11.4 1 2.0 1 1.6 12.0 4 -79 10*0 10,7 11*0 11*4 10*9 10*8 9*6 1-80 10*2 10*9 11*1 11*5 11.1 11.1 1 0.7 11.8 2 -80 10t ? 11,5 U ,8 12*1 12*0 12*2 12*3 13*7 15*6 3-80 10*5 11*0 11*2 11*5 11*2 iit2 1 1.0 11*5 1 1,4 7* 5 4-80 10*2 10*6 10*7 10*9 10*6 10*5 10*2 10*4 9,9 7*2 7*0 1-81 9*8 10*2 10*3 10*3 10*0 9*9 9*3 9.5 9*9 6 .Ç 6*5 6*0 2-81 9*6 9*9 10*0 10*0 9*7 9.6 9*2 9*1 8*6 7*0 6*8 6*7 7*4 3-81 9*5 9*8 9*8 9* 8 9*5 9.4 9*0 9*0 8 ,5 7,1 7*1 7*1 1^6 _7 * 9 4-81 9*6 9*8 9*9 9*9 9*7 9.5 9*2 9*2 8*8 7,7 7*8 8*0 8.6 9*3 10*7 1-82 9*5 9*7 9*8 9 .8 9*5 9.4 9* 1 9.1 8*7 7* 8 7*9 8 .0 8*6 9 ,0 9*5 8*4 2 -82 9*2 9*5 9*5 9*5 9 .2 9* 1 8*8 8*7 0*4 7* 5 7*5 7 ,6 7*9 9*1 8*1 6*9 5 .4 3-82 8*9 9*0 9*0 9*0 8*7 8*5 8*2 8 .1 7*0 6*9 6*9 6*8 7* 0 6,9 6.7 5 ,4 3*9 2.4 4-82 8*3 8*6 8*6 8.5 0*2 8*0 7*7 7*6 7*2 6*4 6*3 6*2 6,2 6,0 5*6 4 ,4 3, 1 2*0 1 ,6 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 1 - 81 2-81 3-81 * —81 2-82 3-82 171 -3 12<*. 1 127 -6 132-3 1 34 .7 137 .0 139 .0 141*5 1 44 .2 14 7 .9 150*9 1-82 15 2 .9 153 .8 15 4 .4 I N I T I A L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEOERAL R E StR V E BANK OF S T . LO U IS MARCH 1 , 1 9 8 3 11 (jROSS NATIONAL PRUQUCT IN CURRENT nm I iR<> COMPOUNOEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE a il T f RHINAL QUARTER IN IT IA L QUARTER 2-78 3-78 *-7 8 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-60 * —80 1-81 3-78 12.3 4-78 13.7 1 5.2 1-79 12.4 1 2.4 9 .8 2-79 11.1 10.8 8 .6 7.5 3-79 11.6 11.5 10.2 1 0 .5 13.6 4-79 11.0 10.8 9 .7 9 .7 10.8 8.1 1-80 11.2 11 . 0 10.2 1 0.3 11.3 10.1 12.2 2-80 9.7 9 .3 8 .4 8.1 8 .2 6 .5 5.7 -0 .4 3-80 9.9 9 .6 8 .8 8.6 8.8 7.7 7.6 5.3 11.4 4-80 10.4 10.2 9.6 9.5 9 .9 9.2 9 .4 8 .6 13.3 15.3 11.1 10.6 10.8 11.2 10.8 11.4 11.2 15.4 17.4 19.6 10.5 10.0 10.4 10.0 12.8 13.2 12.2 5.3 2-81 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 3 —8 2 2 *2 0 2 .5 2 ,2 8 1 .6 2 ,3 3 5 .5 2 ,3 7 7 .9 2,454*8 2 ,5 0 2 .9 2 ,5 7 5 .9 2 ,5 7 3 .4 2 ,6 *3 .7 2 ,7 3 9 .4 1-81 11.2 10.7 10.5 10.1 10.1 3-81 10. 7 10.6 10.2 10.3 10.6 10.2 10.5 10.2 12.5 12.8 11.9 8 .3 11.4 4-81 10.2 10.0 9.6 9 .6 9 .8 9.4 9.5 9.2 10.8 10.7 9.6 6.5 7.1 3.0 1-82 9.4 9.2 8.7 8 .7 8.8 8 .3 8.3 7.8 9. 1 8.7 7 .4 4 .6 4 .3 1.0 2-82 9. 2 9 .0 8.6 8 .5 8 .6 8.2 8.2 7.7 8.8 8.4 7.3 5.0 4.9 2 .9 2 .8 6 .8 3-82 9. 0 8.8 8 .4 8. 3 8 .* 8.0 7.9 7 .5 8.4 8.1 7.1 5.1 5.1 3.6 3.8 6 .3 5.8 4-82 8.7 8.* 8 .0 7.9 8.0 7.5 7 .5 7. 1 7.8 7.5 6 .5 4.8 *.7 3 .* 3 .5 5.0 *.2 2 .6 7.2 8.0 7.6 6 .8 5 .3 5.3 4.3 4.6 6.0 5.8 5.8 9.1 1-60 2-80 3-80 4-80 1-81 2-81 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 8. 7 2-78 8.5 8.1 8.0 8.0 7.6 7 .6 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 IN IT IA L P- n* RATP<i 4-82 2-81 1-83 L in * * DOLLARS ANMI I Al 2 ,8 6 4 .9 2,9 0 1 .8 2 ,9 8 0 .9 3 *0 0 3 .2 -1 .0 2 ,9 9 5 .5 3,045.2 3 ,0 88.2 3,1 0 8 .2 3 , 1 7 6 . 7P QUARTER PR ELI M INA RY GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES iOF CHANGE TERMINAL QUARTER IN IT IA L 2-78 3-78 3-78 3 .3 4-78 4.4 5.5 * —78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 *-8 0 3 .3 3.3 1.1 2.2 1 .9 0.1 -0 .9 3-79 2.8 2.6 1 .7 1.9 *.8 4-79 2 .4 2.2 1.4 1.5 2.8 0.7 1-80 2.3 2.1 1 .4 1.5 2.3 1.1 1.5 2-80 0.7 0 .* -0 .5 -0 .8 -0 .8 -2 .6 -4 .2 -9 .6 3 —80 0. 8 0 .5 -0 .2 -0 .4 -0 .3 -1 .5 —2 t 3 -4 .1 1.7 1.2 0.9 0.4 0 .3 0.5 -0 .4 -0 .7 -1 .4 3.0 4.3 1-81 1.8 1 .6 1.2 1.2 1.5 0.9 1.0 0.9 4.6 6 .1 7.9 2-81 1.5 1.3 0 .9 0.9 1.1 0 .6 0 .6 0.4 3.0 3.5 3. 1 * 1 o 2-81 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 *-8 2 1 ,* * 8 . 8 1-79 CD 1-81 1,4 6 8 .4 2-79 1,472.6 1 ,4 6 9 .2 1 ,4 66.6 1,4 8 9 .3 3-81 1.5 1.4 1.0 1 .0 1.2 0 .8 0 .8 4-81 1.0 0 .9 0.5 0 .4 0 .6 0.1 O.G 1-82 0.6 0.4 0 .0 -0 .0 0.0 -0 .4 2-82 0.7 0.5 0 .2 0. 1 0.2 -0 .2 3-82 0 .7 0 .6 0 .2 0 . 2 0.2 -0 .1 4-82 0 .6 0 .5 0. 1 0 .1 0.2 1-83 0.7 0 .6 0 .3 0 .3 0 .3 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 1,494.9 1 ,4 5 7 .8 1 ,4 6 3 .8 1,479.4 1,507.8 1,502.2 -1 .5 1,510.4 0.7 2.9 3.2 2.8 0 .3 2.2 -0 .2 1.5 1.4 0.7 -1 .6 -1 .6 -0 .6 -0 .8 0.5 0.3 -0 .5 -2 .5 -2 .8 -5 .2 -5. 1 -0 .3 -0 .5 0.7 0.6 -0 .0 -1 .6 -1 .6 -2 .8 -1 .6 -0 .2 -0 .4 0.7 0.6 0. 1 -1 .2 -1 .1 -1 .9 -0 .2 -0 .3 -0 .4 0.5 0.4 -0. 1 -1 .2 - l. l -1 .8 -0 .9 0.6 -0 .2 — 1. 0 0 .0 -0 .0 -0 . 1 0.8 0.7 0. 3 -0 .6 -0 .5 —I . 0 -0. 1 1.2 0.9 1.0 3 .1 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 1-81 2-81 3-8 1 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 *-8 2 IN IT IA L P- B I L L I O N S OF OOLLARS ANNUAL RATES QUARTER *-8 0 1 ,490.1 -5 .3 1,4 7 0 .1 1 ,4 7 8 .* 2.1 1.4 1 ,4 0 1 .1 0 . 7 1,*7 7 .2 1 ,*8 B .5 P QUARTER PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEOERAL^ Kfc ¿.t RVfc ÖANK J J t _> L ^ L 0 U 1 S ________ 12 GROSS N A T I O N A L PRODUCT RATI O SCALE 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 SOURCEt PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIO DS LATEST DATA PLO TTE D t RATI O QUARTERLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES U .S . 1982 1983 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE I N D IC A T E D . 1ST QUARTER P R E L IM IN A R Y pREpAR£D By 13 1981 SCALE ^ #p L 0 (||8 GENERAL RATIO PRICE INDEX* SCALE RATIO 1972-100 1975 SCALE 1972-100 1976 1977 1978 1979 «AS USED IN MAT IONAl INCOME ACCOUNTS 1980 1981 1982 1983 SOURCEt U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt 1ST QUARTER PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS IM P L I C IT PH IC E DEFLATOR FOR GROSS NATIO NAL PRODUCT COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL QUARTER I N I T I A L QUARTER 2-78 3-78 8.7 4->8 8.9 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 19 7 2 * 1-81 2-81 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-62 100 4-82 152 .02 9.1 1 55 .38 1 5 8 .6 0 1-79 8.8 8.8 8 .6 2-79 8.7 8.7 8.5 8 .5 3-79 8.6 8.6 8*4 8 .4 4-79 8.4 8 .4 i —8 0 8.> 8 .7 2-80 8.9 3-80 1 61 .8 5 8 .3 1 65 .1 2 8.2 8 .0 7.8 168 .0 5 8.6 8.6 8 .7 8 .9 10.5 8 .9 8.9 8 .9 9.1 9 .3 10.3 10.1 9 .0 9.0 9.0 9 .0 9 .2 9.4 10.1 9 .9 4 —80 9 .1 9 .2 9 .2 9 .3 9.4 9 .6 10.2 10.1 10.0 10.5 1-81 9 .3 9 .3 9 .4 9 .5 9 .6 9 .8 10.3 10.3 10.3 1 0.7 10.9 2-81 9.1 9.1 9.1 9 .2 9.2 9 .4 9 .7 9 .6 9 .4 9 .4 8.8 6.8 7.3 1 7 2 .3 1 1 7 6 .5 2 1 8 0 .6 0 9 .6 1 85 .16 19 0 .0 1 1 9 3 .1 7 1 9 7 .36 3-81 9.1 9.1 9 .1 9.1 9.2 9.3 9 .6 9.5 9.3 9 .3 8.9 7.9 9 .0 4-81 9.0 9.1 9 .1 9. 1 9 .2 9.3 9.5 9 .4 9 .2 9 .2 8.9 8.2 8.9 8 .8 i —82 8 .7 8.7 8 .7 8 .7 8.7 8.8 8.9 8.7 8 .5 8.3 7.9 7 .2 7 .3 6 .5 2 01 .55 4.3 2 0 3 .6 8 20 5 .9 8 ¿-82 8.5 8 .4 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.5 8.3 8 .0 7.8 7.4 6 .7 6 .6 5 .9 4 .4 "S -8* 8.2 8 .2 8 .2 8.1 8 .1 8 .1 8.2 7.9 7 .7 7.4 7 .0 6 .4 6.3 5 .6 4 .6 4 .8 5 .0 4-82 8.0 7 .9 7.9 7 .8 7 .8 7.7 7 .8 7.5 7.3 7 .0 6 .6 6 .0 5 .9 5.3 4.4 4 .4 4 .4 3.7 7.7 7.6 7 .6 7.4 7 .1 6 .9 6 .5 6 .0 5 .9 5 .4 4 .7 4 .8 4 .8 4 .8 5 .8 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 1-81 2-81 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-62 4-82 1-83 7.9 7 .8 7.8 7 .7 2-78 3-78 4-70 1-79 IN IT IA L 4.6 20 8 .5 1 2 1 0 .4 2 2 13 .4 1 P QUARTER TMINARY PREPARED 8Y FFObRAL RESERVE 6ANK OF S T . A PR IL 2 0 , 1 98 3 14 LOUIS Ç Q W M P T 1Q N EXPENDITURES IN CURRENT lHJLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE ter m in a l I N I T I A L QUARTER 3-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 1- 81 2-81 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 Í 4-78 1 2-78 00 QUARTER 3-?¿ 11.& 4-78 12.5 13.4 1-79 11.7 11.9 10.3 2-79 10.9 10.7 9.4 8 .5 3-79 11.7 11.8 11.2 11.7 14.9 4-79 12.0 12.1 11.8 12.3 14.3 13.7 1-80 11.8 11.9 11.6 11.9 13.1 12.2 1 ,367.5 1 ,4 1 1 .3 I ,446.3 1 ,476.0 1 ,5 2 8 .3 1 ,578.0 10.7 1 ,6 1 8 .7 1 <N 0 CD 10.4 10.3 9.7 9 .6 9.9 8.3 5.7 0.9 3-80 11.0 10.9 10.5 10.6 11.0 10.1 8 .9 8.0 15.6 4-80 11.5 11.5 11.2 11.4 11.8 11.2 10.6 10.6 15.8 1 ,6 22.2 1 ,6 8 2 .0 16.1 1,7 4 5 .8 1-81 11.6 11.6 1 1.4 11.6 12.0 11.5 11.1 11.2 14.9 14.5 1 3.0 2-81 11.0 10.9 10.7 10.7 11.0 10.5 10.0 9 .8 12.2 11.0 8.6 4 .4 3-81 11.0 11.0 10.7 10.8 11.1 10.6 10.1 10. 1 12.0 11.1 9 .5 7.8 11.3 10.5 10.4 10.1 10. 1 10.3 9.8 9 .3 9.1 10.5 9 .5 7 .9 6 .3 7.3 3 .4 10.3 10.2 9.9 9 .9 10.0 9.5 9.1 8.9 10. 1 9 .2 7 .9 6.6 7.4 5 .5 7 .6 2-82 10.0 9.9 9.6 9 .6 9.7 9.2 8 .8 8.6 9 .6 8 .7 7.6 6.5 7.1 5 .7 6 .8 3-82 9 .9 9.8 9 .5 9 .5 9 .6 9.1 8.7 8.5 9.4 8.7 7 .7 6 .8 7.3 6.3 7.3 7 .1 8.1 4-82 9.8 9.8 9 .5 9 .5 9.5 9.1 8.8 8.6 9.4 8.7 7.9 7. 1 7.6 6.9 7 .8 7.8 8.7 9.3 1-83 9.6 9 .5 9 .2 9 .2 9.2 8.8 8.4 8.3 9.0 8.3 7.5 6.8 7.2 6 .5 7.1 7 .0 7 .3 6 .9 4.6 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 1 -8 1 2-81 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 4-81 1 CO rj IN IT IA L P- 1 ,7 9 9 .9 1,8 1 9 .4 1,8 6 8 .8 1,884.5 1 ,9 1 9 .4 6. 1 1 ,947.8 1,986.3 2 ,0 3 0 .8 2 , 0 5 4 . OP QUARTER PRELIMINARY P ER S O N A L l U N S U llP T i l / i £ XPEm iI.TUft£S I N 197¿ PQLLAKS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE IN IT IA L ter m in a l B I L L I O N S QF OOLLARS ANNUAL RATES QUARTER QUARTER 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 3-78 3.4 4-78 4. 1 4.7 1-79 3.0 2 .8 0.9 2-79 2 .0 1 .6 O .l 3-79 2.6 2 .5 1 .7 2. 1 5.1 4-79 2.8 2 .6 2. 1 2 .5 4.2 3 .3 1-80 2 .3 2.1 1 .5 1 .7 2 .5 1.3 -0 .7 2-80 0 .8 0 .5 -0 .2 -0 .5 -0 .4 -2 .2 -4 .8 -8 .7 3-80 1.3 1.1 0 .5 0 .5 0.7 -0 .3 -1 .5 -1 .9 5.4 4-80 1.7 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.6 0 .9 0 .3 0 .6 5.6 5.7 4-80 1-81 2-81 3-81 4-81 1-82 2 - 82 3-82 4-82 90 8 .6 91 9 .2 9 2 1 .2 -0 .7 9 1 9 .5 9 3 0 .9 9 3 8 .6 9 3 7 .0 9 1 5 .8 9 2 8 .0 1-81 2.0 1 .8 1.5 1.6 1.9 1 .4 1.1 1.5 5 .2 5.0 4 .4 2-81 1.6 1.4 1.1 1. 1 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.6 3. 1 2.4 0 .8 -2 .7 3-81 1.7 1 .5 1.3 1.3 1.5 1. 1 0.8 1 .0 3. 1 2 .5 1.5 0.1 2.9 4-81 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.9 1.0 0 .6 0.3 0.4 2 .0 1.3 0 .3 -1 .1 -0 .3 -3 .3 1-82 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.6 2. 1 o 9 4 1 .0 -0 .2 0.6 -0 .5 2 .4 95 1 .1 9 4 4 .6 9 5 1 .4 I 9 4 3 .4 2-82 1.5 1.3 1.1 1. 1 1.3 0.9 0 .7 0.8 2.1 1 .7 1.0 0 .3 1. 1 0.5 2.5 2 .5 u 1 OD 9 4 9 .1 1.4 1.3 1.1 1. 1 1.2 0.9 0 .7 o.e 1.9 1.5 0.9 0 .4 1.0 0.5 1.8 1 .5 0 .5 4-82 1.6 1 .5 1 .3 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.0 1 .2 2.2 1.8 1.4 1 .0 1.6 1.3 2.5 2.5 2 .5 4 .6 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.2 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.1 1.7 1.5 2.5 2.5 2 .4 3.4 2.3 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 1-81 2-81 3-81 4-81 1-82 2 - 82 3-82 4-82 95 5 .0 1 9 5 6 .3 1-83 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.4 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 I n it ia l P- 9 6 7 .0 972 .4P quarter PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BAN* OF S T . A P R IL 2 0 , 1 9 8 3 15 LO UIS GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC 1NVE STHENT IN CURRENT POLLAR S COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL QUARTER IN IT IA L 2-78 3-78 6.4 4-78 10.9 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-dO 3-80 QUARTER 4-80 DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 1 - 81 2-81 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-62 4-62 39 4 .6 15.5 40 9 .1 1-79 9.2 10.7 6.0 2-79 10.2 11.5 9.6 1 3 .3 3-79 8.8 9 .5 7.5 8.3 3.4 0 .5 -5 .3 -1 3 .3 4 15 .1 4 2 8 .3 4 3 1 .9 4-79 4.8 4 .5 1.9 1-80 5.1 4 .9 2 .9 2.1 -1 .3 -3 .6 7.1 2-80 0.3 -0 .5 -3 .0 -4 .7 -8 .7 -1 2 .4 -1 2 .0 -2 7 .7 3-80 -0 .5 -1 .3 -3 .5 -5 .0 -8 .3 -1 1 .1 -1 0 .3 -17.9 -6 .9 4-80 2.2 1 .7 0.1 -0 .7 -2 .8 -4 .0 -1 .6 -4 .3 10.1 30.2 41 6 .8 4 2 4 .0 39 1 .0 3 6 4 .1 4 1 0 .3 6.0 5 .9 4 .9 4 .8 3.6 3 .6 7.4 7.5 22.7 40.6 52.2 7.0 7.0 6.2 6.2 5 .4 5.6 9.2 9.6 21.6 3 2.9 3 4 .3 18.5 3-81 7.1 7 .2 6.5 6.5 5 .8 6.1 9.2 9 .5 19.0 26.5 2 5.3 13.7 9.1 4-81 5.5 5 .5 4.7 4.5 3.7 3 .7 6.1 5 .9 12.9 17.3 14.3 3.9 -2 .8 -1 3 .3 1-82 1.8 1 .4 0.4 -0 .0 -1 .2 -1 .6 -0 .2 -1 .1 3.4 5 .3 0.9 -9 .0 -1 6 .6 -2 7 .2 -3 8 .8 ¿-82 ~1 .7 ¿ .4 1.5 0 .2 -0 .0 1.4 0.8 5. 1 6 .9 3 .4 —4 . 3 -9 .3 -1 4 .7 -1 5 .3 17.1 CO 1 P 1-81 2-81 3.2 3.0 ¿ .i 1 .9 l. l 0.9 2.3 1 .8 5.7 7.4 4 .5 -1 .8 -5 .5 -8 .8 -7 .2 14.2 11.4 4-82 0.2 -0 .2 - l. l -1 .5 -2 .5 -3 .0 -2 .1 -2 .9 0. 1 0.9 -2 .3 -8 .3 -12.2 -15.9 -1 6 .5 -7 .4 -1 7 .7 -3 9 .2 1.0 0.5 3.6 4.7 2.2 -2 .8 -5 .5 -7 .8 -6 .6 3.8 -0 .3 -5 .6 46.3 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 1-81 2-81 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-62 4-62 1-83 t :y " ¿.2 2.0 1.2 0 .9 0. 1 -0. 1 2-78 3-78 4—78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4 5 5 .7 47 5 .5 4 8 6 .0 4 6 8 .9 41 4 .8 4 3 1 .5 44 3 .3 3 91 .5 4 3 0 . 6P I N I T I A L QUARTER P R E L IMÌNARY COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES BILLIONS TERMINAL QUARTER I N I T I A L QUARTER 2-78 3-78 3-78 -3 .1 4-78 1.9 7 .2 1-79 0.9 3.0 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 1-81 2-81 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-62 3-62 4-82 2 3 8 .0 2 42 .2 -1 .2 2 4 1 .5 2-79 0.6 1.9 -0 .7 -0 .3 3-79 -0 .9 -0 .3 -2 .7 -3 .5 —6 . 6 4-79 -4 .1 -4 .3 -7 .0 -8 .8 -1 2 .8 -1 0 . 1 -1 1 .9 2 4 1 .3 23 7 .2 -1 8 .6 2 2 5 .3 1-80 -4 .2 -4 .3 -6 .5 -7 .8 2-80 -8 .3 -9 .0 -1 1 .4 -1 3 .3 -1 6 .3 -1 9 .3 -1 9 .7 -3 2 .4 3-80 -7 .9 -8 .5 -1 0 .6 -1 2 .0 -1 4 .2 -16.0 -1 5 .1 -2 0 .0 -5 .2 4-80 -5 .3 -5 .5 -7 .0 -7 .8 -9 .0 -9 .4 -7 .0 -7 .8 7.8 22.6 -4 .5 22 2 .7 20 1 .9 19 9 .2 20 9 .6 1-81 -2 .8 -2 .8 -3 .9 -4 .2 —4 . 8 —4 . 4 -1 .3 -0 .5 13.2 23.8 2 4 .9 2 -81 -1 .5 -1 .3 -2 .1 -2 .2 -2 .5 -1 .9 1.2 2 .4 13.7 2 0.8 19.9 15.0 3-81 -0 .8 —0 . 6 -1 .3 -1 .4 -1 .5 -0 .8 2.0 3.2 12.3 17.2 15.4 10.9 4-8 1 -2 .6 -2 .5 -3. 3 -3 .5 -3 .8 -3 .5 -1 .4 -1 .0 5.5 7.8 4 .4 -1 .6 -9 .0 -2 2 .6 1-82 -5 .3 -5 .5 —6 . 4 -6 .8 -7 .4 -7 .5 -6 .1 -6 .3 -1 .9 -1 .3 -5 .5 -1 1 .8 -1 9 .3 -2 9 .9 -3 6 .5 2-82 -4 .2 -4 .2 -5 .0 -5 .3 -5 .7 -5 .6 -4 .2 —4 . 2 0.1 0 .9 -2 .3 -7 .0 -1 1 .9 -1 7 .4 -1 4 .6 1 4.9 3-82 -3 .5 -3 .5 -4 . 2 -4 .4 -4 .7 -4 .5 -3 .2 -3 .0 1.0 1.8 -0 .9 -4 .7 -8 .2 - I 1.6 -7 .6 1 1.5 4-82 -5 .8 -5 .9 -6 .7 -7. 1 -7 .5 -7 .6 —6 . 6 —6 . 8 -3 .8 -3 .6 -6 .4 -1 0 .2 -1 3.9 -17.5 -1 6 .2 -8 .0 1-83 -3 .8 -3 .8 —4 . 5 -4 .7 -4 .9 -4 .8 -3 .7 -3 .6 -0 .4 0.1 -2 .2 -5 .1 -7 .7 -9 .9 -7 .2 2 .1 -1 .8 -6 .5 39.7 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 1-81 2-81 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-6£_ 4-82 IN IT IA L P- 22 1 .6 2 2 9 .5 2 3 3 .4 7.0 2 18 .9 195 .4 2 0 2 .3 2 0 6 .3 8 .1 - 1 7.7 - 3 7 .4 1 83 .5 1 9 9 . 5P QUART ER PR ELIMINARY PREPARED BY f e o e r a l R E S t R V t AP RI L 2 0 , 198 3 16 <?AN* OF ST* l LUUI S GOVERNMENT PURCHASE S OF Ç.QQPS ANP SERVICES IN CURRENT DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL QUARTER I N I T I A L QUARTER 2-78 3-78 4-78 3-78 14.8 4-78 13.0 11.2 1-79 10.3 8 .2 5.2 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 1 - 81 2-81 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 DOLLARS ANNUA L RATES 4-82 4 3 9 .3 4 5 1 .1 2-79 9.4 7.7 6.0 6 .8 3-79 10.1 8 .9 8.2 9 .7 12.6 4-79 11.2 10.5 10.3 12.1 14.8 1-80 12.2 11.8 11.9 13.6 16.0 17.7 18.5 Nt 1 oc o 4 5 6 .9 12.4 12 .Ü 12 . 2 13.6 15.4 16.3 16.0 13.6 3-80 11.2 10.7 10.6 11.6 12.6 12.5 11.1 7.6 4-80 11.7 11 . 4 11.4 12.3 13.2 13.4 12.5 10.6 9.1 16.8 1-81 11.9 11 . 6 11.7 12.5 13.3 13.4 12.7 1 1.3 10.6 15.2 13.7 2-81 11.2 10.9 10.8 11.5 12.1 12.0 11.2 9 .7 8.8 11.2 8 .5 4 6 4 .5 4 7 0 .5 4 9 7 .6 16.9 51 9 .2 5 3 6 .0 1.9 5 3 8 .5 5 5 9 .8 57 8 .1 3.6 50 3 .2 3-81 11.3 11.0 10.9 -11.5 12.1 12.0 11.3 10.1 9.5 11.5 9 .7 7.8 12.2 4-81 11.8 11 .5 11.6 12.2 12.7 12.7 12.2 11.3 10.9 12.8 11.9 11 . 3 15.3 18.6 6 0 0 .2 1-82 11.1 10.9 10.8 11.3 11.7 11.6 11.1 10.2 9.7 11.0 9.9 9 .0 10.9 10.2 2.4 2-82 10.4 10. 1 10.1 10.4 10.7 10.6 10.0 9 .0 8.5 9.5 8.3 7.2 8.2 6.9 1.5 6 2 6 .3 6 3 0 .1 6 3 0 .9 0.5 3-82 10.6 10.4 10.3 10.7 11.0 10.8 10.3 9.5 9.1 1C .0 9.1 8 .3 9.3 8 .6 5 .4 7.0 1 3 .9 4-82 10.9 10.7 10.7 11.0 11.4 11.3 10.8 10.1 9 .8 10.7 10.0 9.4 10.4 10.1 8 .1 1 0 .0 15.1 16.3 9 .9 9.2 8.8 9.5 8 .7 8 .1 8.8 8.2 6 .2 7.2 9.5 7.4 -0 .8 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 1-81 2—81 3-81 4-81 1-02 2-02 3-92 4-82 1-83 10.3 10.0 10.0 1 0.3 10.5 10.4 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 6 5 1 .7 6 7 6 .0 6 7 5 . 5P I N I T I A L QUARTER P- PRELIMINARY GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES IN COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES Of CHANGE ter m in a l 1972 DOLLARS K i l l TfMS 1IE DOLLARS ANN LIAI RATE«; I N I T I A L QUARTER QUARTER » CD 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 1-81 2-81 4-81 1-02 2-82 3-82 4-82 2 7 6 .8 4-78 3 .0 1.3 1-79 1 .4 -0 .3 -1 .9 2-79 1.2 0.0 -0 .6 0.6 3-79 1.5 0 .7 0.5 1.7 2.9 4-79 1.8 1.3 1.3 2.3 3 .2 3 .5 1-80 2 .3 1.9 2.0 3.0 3.8 4.3 5 .1 2-80 2 .4 2.1 2.2 3.0 3 .6 3 .9 4.1 3.1 3-80 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.7 1.9 1.6 1.0 -0 .9 -4 .8 4 -80 1.4 1.0 1.0 1 .4 1.5 1.3 0 .7 -0 .7 -2 .6 -0 .3 1-81 1.7 1 .4 1 .4 1.9 2.0 1.9 1 .6 0.7 -0 .0 2.4 5.2 2-81 1.2 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.0 0 .6 —0 . 2 -1 .0 0 .2 0 .5 -4 .0 3-81 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.1 0 .4 -o .l l. l 1.5 -0 .3 3.6 4-81 1.8 1 .6 1.6 1.9 2 .1 2.0 1.8 1.3 1.0 2.2 2.9 2.1 5.3 2 7 7 .7 2 7 6 .4 2 7 6 .8 2 7 0 .0 20 1 .2 2 8 4 .7 1-82 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.5 1 .6 1.5 1 .3 0.8 2-82 1.1 0 .8 0.8 1 .0 1.0 0.8 0 .6 0. 1 3-82 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.3 0.9 4-82 2.0 1 .9 1.9 2 .2 2.3 2 .2 2.1 1-83 1 .4 1.2 1 .2 1.4 1.5 1.4 1 .2 >—78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2 *6 .9 2 8 3 .4 2 8 3 .2 2 0 6 .8 2 0 3 .9 2 0 6 .4 7 .0 2 9 1 .3 0.5 1.4 1.7 0 .8 2.5 2 .0 -0 .3 0.4 0.5 -0 .4 0 .5 -0 .5 -4. 1 -5 .3 0 .6 1.3 1.6 1 .0 2.0 1.6 -0. 1 1.3 8 .4 1 .9 1.7 2 .5 2.8 2.5 3.6 3.6 2 .8 4 .8 1 0.2 12.1 0 .9 0 .7 1.3 1.5 1.0 1.7 1.4 0 .4 1.2 3.4 1.0 2-80 3-80 4-80 1-01 2-01 3-81 4-91 J-02 IN IT IA L P- 3-81 4.8 -2 .9 2 0 9 .2 2 0 5 .3 2-0_£_. 29 1 .1 2 9 9 .5 -6 .9 2 9 2 .6 P 4-02 QUARTER PRfcLlMiNARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST « LO U IS A P R IL 2 0 , 1 9 8 3 17 DISPOSABLE p e r s o n a l i n c o m e i n c u r r e n t d o l l a r s COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL QUARTER B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES I N I T I A L QUARTER 4-78 1-7V 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 1 * 3-78 0 05 2-78 1- 8 1 2-81 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-78 13.0 4-78 13.0 13.0 1-79 12.7 12.6 12 . 1 ¿-79 11.9 11.5 10.8 9 .5 3-79 12.1 11.9 11.5 11.2 1 3.0 4 -79 11.8 11.5 11.2 10.8 11.5 10.1 1-80 11.9 11.7 11.5 1 1 .3 11.9 11.4 12.7 2-80 10.8 10.5 10.0 9 .6 9 .7 8.6 7.9 3.2 3-80 11.3 11.1 10.8 10.6 10.8 10.2 10.3 9.1 15.3 4-80 11.4 1 1.3 11.1 10.9 1 1 .1 10.8 11.0 1 0.4 14.2 13.0 1-81 11.5 1 1.4 11.2 11.1 1 1.3 11.0 11.2 1 0.9 13.5 12.6 1 2.3 2-81 11.2 11 . I 10.9 1 0.7 10.9 10.6 10.7 10.3 12.1 11.1 10.1 7.9 3-81 11.4 11.2 11.1 1 1 .0 11.1 10.9 11.0 10.8 12.3 11.6 11.2 10.6 13.3 4-81 11.2 11.0 10.9 1 0 .7 10.9 10.6 10.7 10.4 I 1.7 10.9 10.4 9 .8 10.8 1-82 10.6 1 0.4 10.2 10.1 10.1 9.8 9 .8 9 .5 10.4 9 .6 8 .9 8.1 8.1 5 .6 3.0 2-82 10.3 16.2 10.6 9 .8 9.8 9.5 9.5 9.1 9 .9 9.2 8.5 7 .8 7.8 6 .0 4 .8 6 .7 8.0 6.7 6 .2 7 .8 8 .9 3-82 4-82 1 ,496.2 1,5 4 2 .7 1 ,5 67.5 1 ,624.0 1,674.3 1 ,714.9 1,766.9 1 ,781.0 1 ,845.5 1 ,9 02.9 1 ,9 58.7 1 ,9 96.5 2 ,0 6 0 .0 8.3 2 ,1 0 1 .4 2 ,117.1 2 ,1 5 1 .5 3-82 10.3 10.1 9.9 9 .7 9 .8 9 .5 9 .4 9.1 9.8 9 .1 8 .6 8 .0 4-82 10.0 9 .8 9 .6 9.4 9 .4 9 .1 9.1 8.7 9.3 8 .7 8 .1 7.5 7.5 6 .3 5.8 6 .8 6 .9 4.9 1-83 9.6 9 .5 9 .3 9 .1 9 .0 8.8 8 .7 8 .3 8.8 8.2 7 .7 7.1 7.0 6 .0 5 .5 6. 1 6 .0 4.5 4 .1 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 1-81 2-81 3-81 4-81 2-82 3-82 4-82 IN IT IA L P- 1-82 2 ,1 9 8 .1 2 ,2 2 4 .3 2 , 2 4 7 . OP QUARTER PR ELI M IN ARY DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN 1 9 7 2 DOLLARS COMPOUNDED -ANNUAL r a t e s of CHANGE TERMINAL IN IT IA L B I L L I OMS QF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES QUARTER quarter 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 4.5 4.3 1-79 3.9 3.4 2.5 2-79 2.9 2.4 1.4 0.2 3-79 3.0 2 .6 2 .0 1 .7 3 .2 4-79 2 .5 2.1 1 .5 1 .2 1.7 00 4 .7 Js 3 -78 1 2-78 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 4-8 0 3-80 1- 8 1 2-81 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 99 4 .2 1 ,0 0 4 .8 1 , 011.1 1,0 1 1 .7 1,019.8 0.1 1 , 020.1 1-80 2.3 1.9 1.4 1.2 1.5 0 .6 1.1 2-80 1.1 0.6 0 .0 -0 .4 —0 . 6 -1 .9 —2 . 8 —6 . 6 3-80 1.6 1.2 0 .8 0.5 0 .5 - 0.2 -0 .2 -0 .9 5.1 4-80 1.7 1 .4 1.0 0 .8 0 .9 0.5 0 .5 0.4 4.1 3 .0 1-81 1 .9 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.2 3.9 3 .3 3 .7 2 -81 1.8 1.5 1.3 1. 1 1.2 0.9 1.1 1.1 3.1 2.4 2.1 0 .6 3-81 2 .0 1.8 1.6 1 .5 1.6 1.4 1.6 1 .7 3.4 3 .0 3 .0 2 .7 4 8 4-81 2 .0 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.4 1 .5 1.6 3.1 2 .6 2 .6 2 .2 3 0 1.2 1-82 1.7 1.5 1 .3 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.2 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.1 1 3 -0 .4 -1 .9 2-82 1.8 1 .6 1.4 1 .3 1 .4 1.2 1.3 1 .4 2.4 2.0 1.9 1 .5 1 8 0.8 0 .6 3 .1 1 , 022.8 1 ,005.5 1,018.2 1 ,0 25.7 1 ,0 3 5 .0 1,0 3 6 .6 1 ,048.8 1,0 51.9 1 ,046.9 1 ,054.8 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.3 1 .4 1.2 1 .3 1.4 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.5 1 7 O.V O 2.2 1.3 1.7 1 .5 1 .3 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 1 .3 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.3 1 4 0.8 0.7 1 .6 0 .8 0. 3 1-63 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1 .3 1.3 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.4 I 5 1.0 0 .9 1.6 1.1 1.0 1.8 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-7V 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 1-81 2 - 81 3-*l 4-81 1-82 2-82. 3-82 4-82 00 3-82 4-82 1,0 5 8 .3 1,059.1 1 »O 63. 0H I N I T I A L QUARTER P- PRELIMINARY ____________ ______________PREPAREO BY FEDERAL RESERVE PAN*. QF S T . A P R IL 2 0 , 1 98 3 18 LU U IS CORPOKATE PROFITS AFTER TAXES* COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL QUARTER IN IT IA L 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 2-78 52.8 3-78 33.8 17.1 4 —78 32.3 23.1 29.5 l-> 9 2 4 .4 16.1 15.6 2-79 2 1.0 14.2 13.2 5.8 8 .4 3-79 19.6 13.9 13. 1 8.2 10.7 13.0 4-79 14.8 9 .4 8.0 3.2 3 .2 0,6 1-80 15.5 11 . 0 10.0 6.5 7.3 6 .9 3.9 2 0 .6 2-80 4.9 0.1 -2 .2 -6 .6 -8 .5 -12.3 -1 9 .4 -2 3.5 -5 1 .5 3-80 7.7 3.6 2.0 -1 .4 -2 .2 -4 .2 -8 .1 -7 .3 -1 8 .7 36.2 3-80 4-80 2-81 1-81 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 1 4 *.1 1 4 9 .9 1 5 9 .9 3.3 1 61 .2 1 6 4 .5 16 9 .6 *“ 10 • 4 1 6 5 .0 172 .9 14 4 .3 15 5 .9 4-80 7.5 3 .8 2.4 -0 .6 -1 .1 -2 .6 -5 .5 -4 .2 -11.2 20.0 5.8 1-81 7.6 4 .3 3.1 0 .5 0.1 -1 .0 -3 .2 -1 .7 -6 .5 16.3 7.4 9 .2 2-81 3.8 Û.5 -0 .9 -3 .5 -4 .2 -5 .7 -8 .1 -7 .7 -1 2 .6 1.3 -8 .2 -14.5 3-81 4.4 1.4 0 .2 -2 .1 -2 .6 -3 .8 -5 .7 -5 .0 -8 .7 3.6 -3 .3 -6 .1 -12.9 13.2 4-81 3.0 0.2 -1 .0 -3 .2 -3 .8 -4 .9 —6 . 8 -6 .3 -9 .6 0.3 -5 .7 -8 .3 -13.5 -1 .8 158 .1 1 6 1 .6 -3 3 .0 146 .2 1 50 .8 -1 4 .8 14 4 .9 1-82 -2 .9 -5 .8 -7 .3 -9 .6 -1 0 .6 -1 2 .2 -1 4 .4 -1 4 .8 -1 8 .4 -1 2 .2 -1 8 .4 -2 2 .5 -28.8 -2 7 .4 -4 1 .8 2-82 -2 .5 -5 .2 —6 . 5 -6 .7 -9 .6 -1 0 .9 -1 2 .8 -1 3 .1 -1 6 .2 -1 0 .2 -1 5 .4 -1 8 .5 -23.1 -2 0 .5 -2 9 .3 -3 5 .6 4 .6 3-82 -1 .8 -4 .3 - 5 . bi -7 .5 -8 .2 -9 .4 -1 1 .0 -1 1 .1 -1 3 .8 —8 . 1 -1 2 .5 -1 4 .8 -1 8 .3 -1 5 .0 -2 0 .8 -2 2 .7 7 .8 11.1 4-82 -2 .0 —4 . 4 -5 .5 -7*3 -8 .0 -9 .1 -1 0 .6 -1 0 .6 -1 3 .0 -7 .8 -1 1 .7 -1 3 .6 -1 6 .5 -1 3 .4 -1 7 .9 -1 8 .6 3.4 2 .8 -4 .9 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2—7 V 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 1- 81 2-81 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 IN IT IA L * B I L L I O N S OF OOl LARS ANNUAL RATES QUARTER NATIONAL INCOME -6 0 .3 1 1 5 .0 1 1 6 .3 1 19 .4 1 1 7 .9 QUARTER 13 a S I S PREPARED BY f e d e r a l AP R IL 20» 19 8 3 RESERVE BANK OF S T . HISTORICAL SOURCES OF NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS DATA The NIPA estimates for 1 9 2 9 - 7 6 are in The National Income and Product Accounts of the United States, 1 9 2 9 - 7 6 : Statistical Tables (Stock number ( 5 0 3 - O T O - O O l O T - l , price 3 1 0 . 0 0 ) . Estimates for 1 9 7 7 - 8 1 appear in the July 1 9 8 2 Survey of Current Business. Estimates for the periods since, appear in subsquent issues of the monthly Survey of Current Business. These publications present the results of the comprehensive revision of the national income and product accounts described in the December 1980 Survey, and are available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. For further information, write to the National Income and Wealth Division (BE-54) Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230. 19 L O U IS I N V E N T O R I E S COMPARED W I T H MONTHLY S A L E S * MA NU F A C T U R I N G AND TRADE 68 I .6 8 .64 64 .60 60 .56 56 . 52 52 48 . 44 44 40 36 .36 32 .32 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 R A T I O S BASED ON SEASONAL L Y ADJ USTED DATA. 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 SO U R C E : U . S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE SHADED AREAS R E P R E S E N T P E R I O D S OF B U S I N E S S R E C E S S I O N S . »D A TA REVISED FROM 1 9 7 8 . L A T E S T DATA PLOTTED- . FEBRUARY P R E L I M I N A R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL 20 RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUI S
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