Full text of National Economic Trends : April 1971
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iMTionRL Economic t r e o d s PREPARED MONTH ENDING: 31, 1971 BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS RELEASED: A p r il 2 2 , 1971 Total spending on goods and services rose at a rapid 12 per cent annual rate (pages 8 and 9) from the fourth quarter of 1970 to the first quarter of 1971, compared with a 4 per cent increase the pre ceding year. This exceptional first quarter rise in the pace of over all economic activity can be attributed largely to a reversal of the forces which accompanied work stoppages in the automobile industry last year. The underlying trend of real product emerges more clearly after allowing for strike influences. Automobile work stoppages began at the end of the third quarter of 1970. Real product increased at a moderate 1.2 per cent rate from the second quarter of last year to the first quarter of this year (pages 8 and 9) after declining 0.2 per cent in the preceding year. Consumer spending on durable goods, the most cyclically responsive component of consumer spending, rose at a 6.1 per cent rate from the second quarter of last year to the first quarter of this year, compared with a 1.4 per cent increase the preceding year and an 8.2 per cent rate of increase from 1965 to 1968. Disposable personal income has not risen rapidly in recent months, and saving as a per cent of disposable personal income has not declined signif icantly. Disposable personal income rose at a 6.2 per cent rate from the second quarter of last year to the first quarter, after increasing 9.7 per cent the previous year. Saving \*as 7.2 per cent of disposable personal income in the first quarter of this year, compared with an average of 7.5 per cent in the last half of 1970 and 6 per cent for the 1960-69 decade. Total civilian employment has changed little since July 1969 (pages 2 and 3). Payroll employment was unchanged from July 1970 to March 1971, and rose at only a 0.2 per cent rate the preceding year (pages 2 and 3). Industrial production declined at a 3.5 per cent rate from July to March (pages 4 and 5), about the same as the 3.1 per cent decline the preceding year. Prices rose at a 5.3 per cent rate from the fourth quarter of last year to the first quarter (page 15), the same as the increase in prices from 1969 to 1970. A substantial Government pay increase in the first quarter pushed overall prices up at a faster rate than prices in the private sector. Consumer prices rose at a 2.4 per cent rate from December to March, after increasing 5.5 per cent the pre vious year (pages 12 and 13). Wholesale prices of industrial commod ities rose at a 4.1 per cent rate in the August to March period, com pared with a 4.6 per cent rate in the corresponding period a year earlier (pages 12 and 13). 2 T O T AL C I V I L I A N EMPLOYMENT COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE INITIAL q- 69 9-69 9 _ 69 iq -69 11-69 12-69 1-70 2-70 3-70 4-70 5-70 THOUSANDS HFPERSÖNS MONTH 6-70 7-70 8-70 9-70 10-70 11-70 12-70 1-71 2-71 78*209 -0 .1 1 0 - 69 1 ._8_ 3.8 1 1 - 69 1. 7 2.6 2.7 2 .0 12-69 8-69 78*451 1.4 78,543 2.1 78,728 2.9 9- 69 10-69 11-69 12-69 1-70 2-70 3-70 “W Ô — 5- 7 0" "6-70 INITIAL 7-70 8-7Ö 9-70 1 0 - 7 Ü” 1 1 - 7 0 12-70 T = T l ” 2^71 MONTH PREPARED 8Y FEDERAL RESERVE APRI L 2, 1971 BANK OF S T . L O U I S PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE INITIAL TERMI NAL MONTH 8-69 Q - 69 10 - 6 9 11-69 1-7C 2-70 3-70 4-70 5-70 THOUSANDS OF PERSONS MONTH 6-70 7- 70 8-70 9-70 10- 70 1 1 - 7 0 1 2 - 7 0 1-71 2-71 70,567 9-69 1.2 10-69 2.^ 4.7 11-69 1.9 2.1 -0.5 12- 69 1.5 1.6 0.1 0.6 1.8 0.9 1.6 1- 7 0 12-69 1.7 70,836 70,808 70,842 70,992 2.6 71,135 2-70 1. 8 1.9 1.3 1.9 2.5 ?.4 3-70 1.9 2.0 1.4 1. 9 ?.4 2.3 2.1 4-70 1.4 1.5 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.0 0.2 1 \ -1.6 5-70 0.7 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.6 -1.6 -3.4 -5.1 ____ 7 1 , 2 5 6 _____ 7 1 , 1 6 3 ______ 70,852 0 r1 >0 0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.7 -1.3 -2.2 -3.6 -4.6 - 4 . 1 SS\ 70,603 7-70 0. 1 -0.0 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -1.3 -2.0 -3.0 -3.4 -2.6 - l .O ^ '^ 70,546 8-70 -0.1 -0.2 -0.7 -0.7 -0.9 -1.4 -2.0 -2.8 -3.1 -2.5 -1.6 -2.2 0.0 -0.1 -C.5 -0.5 -0.6 - I .0 -1.5 -2.0 -2.1 -1.4 -0.4 -0.1 __9 - 7 0 _ 0. 1 10-7 0 -0.4 -0.5 11-70 -0.5 - 0.6 1 2 - 7 0 _. . _- Q. 2 =0._3_. _1.-7.1_____ 0._2_ 0.1 -0.9 - 1.0 -1.0 - 1.0 -0.7 - 0.2 - 0.2 ” 2.0 1.0% X 70,414 70,531 -1.1 -1.5 -2.0 -2.6 -2.7 -2.3 -1.8 -2.0 -2.0 -5 .8 ^ v 1.2 -1.5 -2.0 -2.5 -2.6 -2.2 -1.8 -1.9 -1.9 -3.7 -0.3 -1.1 -1.4 -1.8 -1.8 -1.3 -0.8 -0.8 -0.5 -1.3 0.2 -0.5 -0.7 -1.0 -1.0 -0.4 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.5 2.7 0.0 0.4 0.1 1.6 - - 2- 71 0. 1 -0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 -1.1 -1.0 -0.6 -0.1 3- 71 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -Ü.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.7 -1.0 -0.9 -0.5 -0.1 0.0 .................... 8-69 9-69 10-69 11-69 12-69 1- 70 2-70 3-70 4-70 5-70 6-70 P - PRELI MI NARY \ 7-70 -I. 9-70 7 0 , C85 70 , 3 0 3 0.4 0.1 1.3 ............................. - . 8-70 70,182 70,652 2.7 2.2 2.1 1.5 -0.7 - .— ........................... 10- 70 11- 70 12-70 70 » 559P -1.6 1-71 0.2 .-- ^ 70,568P j ............ 2- 71 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE” M N K DF S T . 1 Q UT S AOUTI 107 1 3 Em ploym ent Ratio S c a l e R atio S c a l e Source: U.S. D epartm ent of Labor Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. Latest data plotted: M a rc h p relim inary P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e se r ve B a n k of St. Louis 4 I NDUS T RI AI PRODUCTI ON COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATFS OF CHANGE. 1957 - 5 9 = 100 I N I T T At J40NTH terminai MONTH ft-AO Q- AQ ^ r»-AO 1 1 - A Q 1 7- AQ 1-70 7-7n i-7n 4 - ' 7n *i-7n A-70 7 - ‘70 «-7 0 9-70 10-70 11-70 12-70 1-71 7-71 173.9 9—69 -2*7 10-69 - 4 .1 -*» . 4 173. 1 1 1,- A Q -a . a -ft T ■* - i l . 7 171.4 12-69 -5.4 - 6 •3 1- 70 -5.3 ,o 2-70 -4. 3 -4, A -6,7 ____ 1 1 1 * 1 -2 » I ft - 6.1 -3.5 -4.4 - 2t 1 - 2 -1 P.. 7 -?,ft - 0 .5 nrn ?t5 - ?. 1 -3. 2 4-70 -3» 5 -3. * 5-70 - 4i.Tn t? 6- t o - 3 . fl -3, o -*. 7 - 2. * -* . 7-70 -3.2 -3.2 - 3 .0 -1 . q - 1 •<* ■*-70 - 1 »7 -7. 7 - 1 -1 -A. 1 - A .1 -i,n -«>,■* - 4 .8 -1.4 —1 , q -3* 1 - 2 ,3 n, 7 ? .9 7 - 2 .4 -o. 5 o. .0 -1 - 4 169.2 -4*0 -4,7 - 6*1 - 6 .1 -A, 1 -A t^ -7- 1 -ft- 7 - 9 .1 - q . 3 - 1 1 .1 - 1 5 . 3 - 2 1 .0 - 2 2 . 6 -«*-« —A - 1 — A *? - 7 .n -ft. ^ - R .6 - R . .7 - 1 0 .1 - 1 3 .0 - 1 6 . 2 - 1 4 . 6 —5.8 r« - ^ tQ ft -4-^ —5 _ ? - 5 .1 - 4 . .6 — 3*3 8.0 23.8 - * tn 1 1 - 7a -*> T Q -A , 1 —A _ ? ** -•* , A -1,«! - ? to ? - 71 TA -■* . 7 A .n -*.n .U _? .7 -? .« —?- A - 7 .Q -3.4 9- 69 11-69 12—69 1- 7 0 2-70 3-70 -7 -?.ft - 1t1 - A .9 - 1 1 . 5 - 1 9 .4 - 5 .1 -6 .7 - 7 .6 ____1 6 5 . 8 162.3 161.5 1 6 4 , 4 __ .. ft -3 . 6 - 3 . .0 - ^ .2 - 4 .2 - 4 .5 -0.4 R.4 16 . 2 9.1 -•*. q - 3 .7 - 3 . .7 -3 .4 -4 .3 - 4 .6 -1.3 4.9 8.7 1.8 -5.0 - 3 .7 .7 -2 - R -7 . 5 - 3 .6 -0.7 4.3 X. 0 2 .0 -1.4 2 .2 4 - 70 O' 1 -4.4 -3. * A 168.8 - 2 .R •«n 1 0 -4. * 1- 71 0 1 > .0 -2 tn l2-7n 7 - 70 3— 70 9-70 10-70 11-70 12-70 1- 71 2-71 INITIAL »- 168.8 - 2. 2 -4, 1 10-70 fi - 69 169.0 -A „2 -A , ? 1-71 170.2 -7.1 -4, A -4. 7 ,q 9-70 - n T *5 -7-4 171.1 - 1 -A - 4 , *» -T,? -1 ta -?.Q 170.5 4 T3 - 2. n -i, ? ,o 3 - 7 rt ft 70 165.6 1 6 4 . 9P 165.2P MONTH PR E l I MI NA R Y . 170.4 -4, PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . L O UI S 5 Industrial Production Ratio Scale Ratio Scale P e r c e n t a g e s a r e a n n u a l rates of c h a n g e f o r p e r i o d s i ndi cat ed. Latest d a ta plotted: M a r c h p re lim in a ry Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 6 R E T A I L SALES COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE i\> 1 -j © TERMINAL______________________________________________________________________I N I T I A L MONTH_____________________________________________________________________ M I L L I O N S OF MONTH DOLLARS Ö— 69 9- 69 10-69 11-69 12-69 4-70 5-70 6-70 7-70 8-70 9 - 7 0 10-70 11-70 12- 70 1-71 1r- 6 9 1-70 3-70 8-69 11 . 1 9- 69 3.5 -3.5 10-69 7.5 5.7 15.9 11-69 4.0 1.7 4.4 12-69 2.7 0.7 2.2 -4.0 -2.1 1- 70 3.3 1.8 3. 2 -0.7 2.0 6.3 29,346 29, 259 29, 620 -5.9 29,471 29,419 29, 570 2-70 5.3 4.4 6.0 3.7 7.1 12.0 18. 0 3—7 0 3.7 2.7 3.7 1.5 3.4 5.3 4.8 -6.9 4-70 6.7 6. 1 7.6 6.3 8.9 11.8 13.7 11.7 34.0 5-70 5.9 5.3 6.4 5.2 7. 1 9.1 9.8 7.1 15.0 -1.3 6-70 5.4 4.8 5.8 4.6 6.2 7.6 7.9 5.5 10.0 -0.4 0.6 7-70 5.6 5.2 6.1 5.0 6.5 7.8 8.0 6. 1 9.6 2.6 4.5 8 . 6 ^ ^ 8-70 5.4 4.9 5.7 4.7 6.0 7.0 7.1 5.4 8.1 2.4 3.7 5.3 2 . o "'N\ + 3 . 2 % 9-70 5.3 4.8 5.6 4.7 5.8 6.7 6.7 5.2 7.4 2.8 3.8 4.9 3.1 10-70 4.0 3.5 4.0 3.1 3.9 4.6 4.4 2.8 4.3 -0.0 0.3 0.2 -2.5 -4.7 - 1 2 . 8 ^ ^ 11-70 2.9 2.3 2.8 1.8 2.5 2.9 2.6 1.0 2.1 -1.8 -1.9 -2.4 -5.0 -7%2 - 1 2 . 5 - 1 2 . 1 12-70 3.5 3.0 3.5 2.6 3.3 3.8 3.6 2.2 3.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 -1.5 -2.4 -4.4 0.1 1- 7 1 4.6 4.2 4.7 4.0 4.7 5.3 5. 2 4. 1 5.3 2.5 3.0 3.3 2.4 2.5 2.1 7.6 19. 1 24.5 2-71 4.a 4.5 5.0 4.3 5.0 5.6 5.5 4.5 5.7 3.2 3.7 4.1 3.4 3.7 3.6 8.1 15. 9 16.9 7-69 8-69 9-69 1 0 - 69 11-69 12-69 1-70 2-70 3-70 4-70 5-70 6-70 7-70 8-70 9-70 29, 980 29,801 30,536 INITIAL 30,502 30,518 30,729 30,781 4 .1 ^ \ ^ 30,885 30,534 30,208 1 3 .9 ^ \ ^ 10-70 11-70 12- 70 30, 537 3 1 , 100P 1 3 1 , 341P 1-71 MONTH P - PRELI MI NARY --------- FFftSGNAL INCOME -----COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE INITIAL TERMI NAL MONTH 3-69 9-69 10-69 ( 9-69 10-69 11-69 12-69 1- 70 2-70 3-70 4-70 5-70 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF s t . 12, 1971 B I L L I O N S Ur DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES MONTH 6-70 7-70 8-70 9- 70 1 0 - 70 11-70 12-70 1-71 2-71 763.1 7.5 6.7 cumS APRI L 5.8 766. 7 6.0 770.6 11-69 6.5 12-69 6.4 6.0 6.1 5.9 1- 70 6.2 5.9 5.9 5.7 5.6 777. 8 2-70 6.2 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.7 781.5 W O 6.7 6.5 6.7 6.8 7.0 7.8 9.8 4-70 9.5 9.8 10.5 11.4 12.8 15.3 20.3 5-70 7.3 7.3 7.5 7.7 774.3 8.1 8.7 787.6 806.0 31.9 . tÖ .4 / o 799.7 9.6 9.6 -9.0 -5.7 -2.2 -1.3 2.7 7.9 803.3 6.3 806.4 6-70 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 5.5 7-70 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.8 6.1 798.2 8-70 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 5.8 0.1 3.4 9-70 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.8 6.3 1.8 4.6 7.0 6.6 8.5S\ 1.0 3. 1 4.5 3.3 2.6 1.4 3.3 4.4 3.5 3.1 0.5 4 / l V>\ 4.9 4.3 4.2 2.8 5.8 7.5 6.4 6.1 6.4 5.8 8.9 11.4 6.0 5.6 7.8 9.1 9.8 4.4 6.1 8.0 9.0 9.5 6.6 9 - 7 0 10- 70 11-70 12- 70 1-71 10-70 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 4.9 11- 70 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.3 4.8 2. 1 3.8 3.6 5.2 12-70 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.1 1- 7 1 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.1 2-71 6.2 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.3 5.9 3.6 5.2 6.1 5.9 3- 7 1 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.2 4.1 5.5 6.4 6.2 6.4 8-69 9-69 10-69 11-69 12-69 1-70 2-70 3-70 4-70 5-70 6-70 7-70 8-70 INITIAL 811. 9 809.9 - 2 . 9 \ 812.6 817.5 827.4 1 5 .5 ^ \ 830. 4P 8.9 \ 836.3«> 2-71 1 MONTH P - PRELI MI NARY PREPARED I V FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . APRIL 15* 1971 L O U IS 7 Retail Sales Ratio Scale Ratio Seal« Source: U.S. Department of Commerce Percentages are a nn u al rates of change for periods indicated. Latest data plotted: F e b r u a r y p re li mi nar y Prepared by Fed#roNta«#fveio*fco#St.Louis Personal Income 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 Source: U.S. Department of C om me rc e Percentages are ann ual rates of change for periods indicated. Latest data plotted: M a r c h p r e l i m i n a r y Pre par ed by Fed er al Reserve Bank of St. Louis 8 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN CURRENT DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE INITIAL TERMINAL OUARTFR 3-66 2- 6 6 3- 6 6 4-66 1- 67 2- 6 7 3-67 4-67 1-68 2-68 B I L L I O N S ÖL DOLLARS ANNUÄC " HATES" QUARTER 3- 6 8 4-68 1- 6 9 2-69 3- 6 9 4-69 1- 7 0 2-70 3-70 4-70 755.9 7.0 4-66 7. 5 #.i p s + 3 .6 % 7 7 0. 7 1- 67 5. 6 5.0 1 1. 9v ' V\ 774.4 2-6T J 5. 1 .> ^ + 9 .4 % 7.2 8. 2 7.7 8 1 5 .9 7.8 8.7 B.7 83 4. 9 7.4 8.6 9. A 9.6 7.6 8. 5 7. 5 8.4 8. 9 7.6 7. 5 8.3 8.7 7.6 7.5 8. ? 7.6 7.6 7. 6 8.2 7.3 7.3 7. 3 7.8 8.0 8.0 8 .0 7. C 7.4 7. 6 7.5 7. 5 6. P 7.2 6.4 6.3 1—68 6.9 6.9 2- 6 8 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.6 7.5 7.5 1- 69 3-69 84 . 5 8 0 0. 9 6.9 6.9 5.9 6.9 7. 1 10. 6 11 . 6 9.9 10.0 858. 1 -+7.8%- 7.3 8 . 7 ___ 7. 8 8.7 7.4 6.6 6.9 7.3 4-70 7.6 7.7 6.0 6.8 6.3 6.4 7.9 8.4 6.5 6.2 3.9 5.7 5.2 3.6 5.6 5. 1 3- 6 6 4-66 1- 67 3-67 N ^ + 5 . 3 % 5.9 7. 1 2-67 951.7 k 4.7 6.7 2-66 94 2 . 6 5.6 6.1 7. 1 7. 1 923.7 7.3 8 .6 4^67 P 768 2^68 3-îTR j N j t j /vl 4^68 1=69 2^69 5^69 4^69 !^7T5 Tr -T ü Ï^TÜ 4-70 QUARTER P - PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY F F DP ft AL RES ERVE “ B ANK OF 3 T . APRIL 16 » 1971 LOOTS GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN CONSTANT 1958 DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE___________ B IL L IO N S UF~ I NITIAL QUARTER DOLLARS QUARTER ANNUAL 2-66 3-66 4- * 6 1- 67 2 -6 7 3 -6 7 4-67 1- 6 8 2- 6 8 3- 68 4-68 1- 6 9 2- 69 3- 69 4-69 1-70 2-70 3-70 RATES 4- 70 660.2 3.7 3.9 3.6 4. 5 3.6 3.6 3. 5 4.2 2-69 3.5 3.5 •3- 6 9 3.4 3.4 3.1 4-69 1- 70 3.1 2.7 2.7 +2.9%' 4.? 722. 1 4. 5 3.? 4. 1 3.7 2. 9 2.5 2.4 2.2 726. 1 3.9 4.0 3. 9 3. 3 3. 3 3. 8 3.8 3. 9 3.6 2 .° 2.6 2. 5 2. 5 2.7V 3.0 3. 3 3.3 3. 2 3.3 2.9 2. 2 1. 9 1. 6 1 .3 0.9 -0.9 -1.9 - ?> 3.4 2. 5 2. 8 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.2 73 0 . 9 I 1 .5 1. 0 0.7 0.2 -0.4 72 9. 2 \ 7 2 3. 8 + 0 .1 % • 72 4 . 9 1 . 4 \ 727.4 2-70 2.6 2.5 2.4 2. 6 2. 6 2.4 2. 4 2.0 1.4 l_._o_ 0.7 0.3 -0.2 -1.1 -1.2 0 . 6 ^ 3-70 2. 5 2.5 ?.3 2. 5 2.5 2. 3 2.3 1. 9 1 .4 1. 0 n.8 o.*; 0. 1 -0.5 -0.3 1. 0 4-70 2. 1 2. 1 1.9 2. 1 2." 1. 8 1. 8 1.4 0.8 0.5 0. 2 -0.1 -0.5 -1.2 -1.2 -0.6 -1.3 -3.8 1- 71 2. 4 2.3 2. 2 2.4 2. 3 2.2 2. 1 1.8 1. 3 l.l 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.3 l.l l.> 1. 2 2-66 3-66 4-66 1- 67 2- 6 7 3- 6 7 4-67 1-68 2- 6 8 3- 68 4-68 1- 69 2- 69 3-69 4-69 1-70 2- 7 0 3-70 _ 720.3 6. 4 \ 7 3 1 . 6P 4-70 PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RFSERVE BANK OF S T . LO UIS APRIL 15, 1971 Dem and and Production Ratio Scq Ig 1963 Ratio Scale Qua r t er l y Totals at A n n u a l Rates 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 L l G N P in current doll ars. 1969 1970 1971 Source: U.S. Depar t ment of C o mme r c e [2 G N P in 1958 dol l ars. P e r c e n t a g e s ar e a n n u a l rates of c h a n g e for p e r i o d s i ndi c a t ed. Latest d a t a plotted: 1st q u a r t e r p r e l i mi n a r y Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ID FI NAL SALES IN CURRENT DOt LARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE INITIAL TERMINAl OUARTFR 2- 6 6 4-66 3- 66 1- 67 2- 6 7 4-67 3-67 1- 68 2- 6 8 B I L L I O N 5 Ur OOLLARS a n n u a l Ra t FS QUARTER 1- 69 4- 6 8 3- 6 8 2-69 3- 69 4-69 2-70 1- 7 0 3- 70 4-70 9.6 744.0 4-66 6.6 3.7 750. 8. 1- 67 7. 0 ,.T 7.7 ?—67 7.3 6. 5 7.9 3-66 r \ 764.8 , . 2V 7 8 0. 0 3- 67 7.1 6. 5 7.4 7.3 6 . 4 ^ ^ 792 . ? 4-6 7 7. 1 6.6 7.3 7.2 6.8 7. 1 80 5. 9 1- 68 8. 0 7.8 8. 6 8.8 9.0 10. 4 13. 8 2—68 8. 0 7.7 8. 4 8.6 8.7 9.5 10. 7 8 3 2. 3 847. 8 7.7 867. 6 3- 68 8.? 8.0 8. 6 8. 8 8. 9 9.5 10. 3 8. 7 9.7 4- 6 8 8. 0 7.9 8.4 8.5 8.5 9.0 9.5 8. 1 8. 3 6.9 1- 69 8. 1 7.9 8. 4 8.5 8.5 8.9 9. 3 8. 2 8. 3 7. 7 882. 1 900. 2 8. 5 2—69 8.0 7.9 8. 3 8. 3 8. 4 8. 6 8. 9 8.0 8.0 7. 5 7. 8 7. 2 9 1 5. 9 3-69 7. 9 7.8 8.1 8. ? 8.? 8. 4 8. 6 7*8 7. 8 7. 3 7.5 7.0 93 1 . 2 4-69 7.8 7. 6 8. 0 8.0 8.0 8. 1 8. 3 7.5 7. 5 7*0 7.1 6.6 1- 70 7.6 7.5 7. 8 7. 8 7.8 7.9 8. 0 7. 3 7. 2 6.8 6.8 6*4 7. 5 7.5 7.5 7. 6 7. 6 6.9 6.9 6.5 6.4 6.0 5,7 5. 8 | 5 •8 ] J 1 5.1 4« 3 5.3 7. 4 7.3 7. 3 7.3 7.4 6. 8 6.7 6.3 6.2 5. 8 5.6 5.2 5.0 \ +•5 5.8 ^ >" 1 1 6.3 !\J 1 o 6.2 7.4 7.3 3- 70 7. 3 7. 1 0 >*1 * 7.0 6.9 7. 1 7.0 6.9 7.0 7. 0 6.4 6.2 5. 9 5. 7 5.4 5. 1 4.7 1-71 7.3 7.2 7.4 7.4 7. 3 7.4 7.4 6.9 6.8 6. 5 6.5 6.2 6. 1 6.0 2- 6 6 3-66 4- 6 6 1- 67 2- 6 7 3- 6 7 4- 6 7 1- 68 2- 6 8 3- 68 4-68 T-69 ?-69 3- 69 IN IT IA L 8% /O 94 4 . 5 957.9 ^ + 6 .1 % 968. 1 _ 980.0 4*7 5 . 0 'x. 4.4 4.0 3.8 2 .6 ^ \ 6.0 6. 1 6« 7 7.5 \ 12. 6^ 4-69 1-70 2- 70 3-70' 4-711 9 8 6. 3 1 , 0 1 6 . OP QUART PR" P - PRELIMINARY ---------------------------— ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- _ _ _ _ _ _ -------------------------------- ------------------------------------ p f t r o n r c n _ TERMINAL QUARTER _________2- 6 6 3- 66 2- 66 4-66 3- 66 1- 67 4- 6 6 2- 6 7 1- 67 3-fe7 ?- 67 “ 4- 67 3- 67 by f e d er a l reserve M N A L SALES IN CONSTANT 1958 D O L L A k > PRIL lfe* 1971 COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE I N I T I A L OUARTER ~ ~ ' ~~ 1- 68 2- 6 8 3- 68 4-63 1- 69 2-69 3- 69 4- 69 1- 7 0 4-67 1- 6 8 2- 68 3- 68 INITIAL 4-68 1- 69 2-69 3- 69 4-69 ' 2-70 1- 70 bank d f - t t . t o o t s ..... 3-70 2-70 4-70 3-70 BI LL I ONS OF DOLLARS ' ANNUAL "RATfS '4-70 OUARTER P - PRELIMINARY PREPARED "BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS APRIL 16, 1971 11 Final Sales Total Spending Less Changes in Business Inventories Ratio S c a le 1963 Qua r t er l y Totals at A n n u a l Rates 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 Ratio S c a le 1969 1970 1971 Source-. U.S. Depar t ment of C o m m e r c e P e r c e n t a g e s a r e a n n u a l rates of c h a n g e for per i ods i ndi cat ed. Latest d a t a plotted: 1st q u a r t e r p r e l i m i n a r y Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 12 CONSUPER PH ICE INDEX * CQMPOUNOEO ANNUAL RATES Of CHANGE IN IT IA L - I W I NAL. MONTH J ÌZ & L <,-69 j Q - 6 9 11^69 12- 69 1- 7 0 2-70 3-70 4- 70 1967 * 100 MONTH 5-70 6-70 7-70 8-70 9 - 7 0 1 0 - 7 0 11- 70 1 2 - 70 1- 7 1 2- 7 1 U 1 .2 _S=62_ 1 1 1 .6 1 1 2 .2 U ~ M - 6.1 11 2. 9 6 . 3 --------L l2--------Zj J L 11 3. 3 5. 2- , ¿ 1 ^ ____ t u X — _2=1£_ q* v— ____ S U L 3 - ____________ a.'ZLV.___ ___Bj ù ì __ 4-70 tu l^ £>.2 6. 2 11 3 . 9 5.4 ------ iS.M .... — y -f .if,.. 6.6 6.5 6. 2 6.9 114. 5 Y l f ------,---------7. 0 115. 2 115. 7 5- 7 0 fc . 1 6. 1 6. 4 6.3 6. 1 6.5 6.5 5.3 6-70 *. 1 6.? 6.4 6.3 6.1 6.5 6.5 5.9 6.4 7- 7 0 5.9 6. G 6. 1 6.1 5. 8 6.1 6.0 5.3 5.3 p s . I V 4.2 8-70 5. 6 5.6 5.7 5.6 5. 4 5.5 5.3 4.5 4.2 3. 1 2.1 9-70 5.7 5.7 5. a 5.7 5.5 5.6 5.5 4.9 4.7 4.2 4«? 5. 1 4.7 4.9 6.3 6.3 4 . ’* 4.6 4,7 5. 6 5.2 4.1 _116. 3 116. 7 1 1 6. 9 X , -J.A \ + 4 . U / o 11 7. 5 — ......... __ 118. 1 10- 70 5.7 5.7 5. 8 5.8 5.6 5.7 5.6 5. 1 11- 70 1.6 5.6 5. 7 5.6 5.4 5.5 5. 4 _ ... 5*0 12—7 C 5.6 5.6 5. 7 5.7 5.5 5.6 5.5 5. 1 5.1 4.9 5.0 5.8 5.6 5.2 6.2 4.6 4.3 4.3 4.8 4.4 3.8 3.6 1.0 \ 4.0 4.0 4.3 3.9 3.3 3. 1 1. 5 2 .0 ^ s ^ I *.o 1 4 .0 4.3 4.0 3.5 3. 3 2.4 3.1 4.1 9 - 7 0 1 0 - 7 0 1 1 - 7 0 12 - 7 0 1- 71 Z- 7 1 1-71 *>.4 5.3 5. 4 5.3 5. 1 5.2 5. 1 4.7 2- 71 '5.2 5.2 5. 2 5. 1 4.9 5.0 4.8 4.4 4.3 3- 71 5. 1 5.1 5. 1 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.4 4.3 9- 6 9 10- 69 11 - 69 12- 69 1- 7 0 2-70 4-70 5-70 8-69 ♦ 3 6-70 7- 7 0 8-70 1 18. 5 \ 119. 1 1 19. 2 119.4 1 19. 8 | NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------PKtPAftCo' fiY FÉÒEftAt « S E R V E APRIL 22# 1971 WHOLESALE PRICES - I NDUSTRI AL COMMODITIES ♦ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE ftANK O F T T . I N I T I A L MONTH TERMINAL LOUI S 1967 100 4-69 ____ 9— 6 9 S •* 1 1 —6*) 5.0 . _ 1 2 — 69 4.9 5.0 c :i lO-o« 11-69 12-69 1-70 2-70 3-70 5-70 6-70 5.0 2- 1°. , 9-70 10-70 11-70 12-70 1-71 2-71 106.5 5.2 _ 107.1 5.4 107.4 5.0 4.0 4.6 5» ? 4.6 5.1 5.0 4.5 4« 4,6 .... . 4 . 6 . 4.5 4.2 ,.Ai? V 4.2 _ 107.8 5.7 108.3 5.1 4.5 4.1 3.4 2.2 4.2 3.7 3.4 108.7 108*9 4.5 109.3 4t* 4.. 2 4.3 4.3 3.9 3.7 1, 5. 4. 5 6-70 4.2 4.2 3.» 3.9 3.7 3.4 3.1 3.3 2.8 ______7 - 7 0 4.0 4.0 3.6 3.7 3.5 3.2 2.9 3.1 2.6 1.7 2.2 8-70 3.9 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.5 1.8 2.2 ......... 5 - 7 0 , , 9-70 . .10-70 _ 109.7 r s . 1 -V ll . 1 109.8 110.0 2.2 110.2 3.7 3.7 i.H 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.8 2.4 1.9 2.2 2.2 2 .2 \ + 4.2 4.2 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.6 i .8 3.7 3.5 4.2 4.8 6.1 3.9 3.9 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.2 2.9 3.3 3.6 4.1 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.5 3.7 4.1 4.8 ■“ 2.2 4.4 ........................... “■ N 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.8 4.0 4.4 5.0 3.3 5.0 *5 . 5 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.7 3.9 4.2 4.6 3.3 4.4 4.4 3.3 112.5 3.5 3.6 3.5 Ì.7 3.8 4.1 4.4 3.3 4.1 4.0 3.3 112.8 ~2-7Ó 3-7Ò 4-70 6-70 7-70 8-70 9-70 10-70“11-70 12-70 1-7T 3.* 3.9 3.7 3.7 1-71 4.0 4.0 3.r> 3.8 ? — 71 4.0 3.9 3.^ 3-71 3.9_ 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 '9=69“ 10-V* 11-69 12-69 1-70 ... . 1 . 2 - 7 0 8-70 _.7?p 4.1 . _____ 4 - 7 0 11-70 7-70 4.6 I Q- *** 3-70 9-69 i o MONT H rt- 69 5-70 INITIAL A % 110.4 1 0 . 2 ^ ^ ... ' r r r r 3 o 111.3 . ; \ 111.3 111.7 112.2 Z-71 MONTH .* _j4or SE AS JNALLY A DJ U S T c ) T WEVARfcD tfY f-EDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S I . L OU IS APRIL I t 1971 13 Prices Rati o S( 1967= 100 130 Rati > S c a l e 196/ =100 130 125 125 120 120 115 115 110 110 105 105 100 125 120 95 115 90 110 105 105 100 100 95 95 90 90 Source: U.S. Departm ent of L ab or ercen tage s are a n n u a l rates of c h a n g e for p e rio d s indicated, a te st d a ta plotted: M a r c h P r e p a r e d by F e d e r a l Re s e r v e B a n k of St. Loui s WHOLESALE PRICES* ALL COM M ODITIES • COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE T E R M I N A L ___________________________ _________________________ INITIAL MONTH _________________ 1967 » 100 10-69 11-69 12-69 1-70 2-70 3-70 4 -7 0 5-70 1 o 9 -6 9 8 -7 0 9 -7 0 1 0 -7 0 1 1 -7 0 1 2 -7 0 10 - 69 2.8 3 .4 11—69 4.6 5.7 8. 1 12- 69 4.6 5.3 6.3 ».5 i-70 5.5 6*3 7.3 6.8 9.2 ?zI2 5.3 5.9 6.6 6.1 6.8 4.5 1-70 4.9 5.3 5.7 5. 1 5.3 3.3 4-70 4.2 4.5 4.7 4.0 3.9 2.2 1.1 0.0 4.0 4.2 4.3 3.7 3.6 2.2 1.5 1.1 2.2 6-70 3.8 4.0 4.1 3.5 3.3 2.2 1. 6 1.5 2.2 2.2 7-70 4.1 4,3 4.4 3.9 3.8 2.9 2*6 2.8 3.7 4 .4 6.7 8— 7 0 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.0 2.8 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.6 1. 5 1. 1 -4.2 _*-?Q 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.2 3. 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.4 2.5 2.6 0.5 5.6 10-70 3.3 3.4 3.4 2.9 2.8 2. 1 1. 8 1.7 2.0 2.0 1.9 0.4 2.7 0.0 c 2.3 ,.lk z lo „ 12-70 1 -7 1 2 -7 1 1 0 7 .1 9 -6 9 » 8 -6 9 cr 1 o MONTH 1 0 7 .4 1 0 « .1 1 0 8 .5 1 0 9 .3 1 1 0 9 .7 1 0 9 .9 2.2 1 0 9 .9 1 1 0 .1 110.3 1& 0 .9 1 1 0 .5 111.0 111.0 110.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.6 2.4 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.6 1 .5 1. 3 0.0 1.5 -0.5 -l.l 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.5 2.3 1.7 1.4 1.3 1 .5 1.4 1. 3 0.2 1.4 0.0 0.0 l.l 1 1 1 .0 1 1 1 .8 1-71 3.2 3 .3 3.3 2.9 2.8 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.3 1.6 2.8 2.2 2.9 5.0 9.0 2- 71 3*6 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.0 2. a 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.4 3 ®0 4.2 3.9 4.9 7.0 10.1 11.3 112.8 3-71 *.6 3.6 3.7 3.4 3.3 7 .4 6.6 113.0 8 "*69 9-69 10-69 11-69 12-69 9 - To 1 0 - 7 0 1 1 -7 0 1 2 -7 0 1 -7 1 2.9 1-715 2.3 2 .8 3.2 3.1 3.3 2 - 7 5 .... 3-y<5~.. 4 - 7 $ “ “'5=7’0 '" 6 - 7 0 2*9 3.9 7 = 7 0 “ “ F -7 0 3.6 4.4 5 .8 2.1 2 -U I N I T r A T MONTH NOT SEASONALLY A D J U S T E D * WHOLESALE PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE V m * O r ST ^ LOUTS APRIL 1, 1971 - FARM PRODUCTS, AND PROCESSED FOODS AND FEED COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE PRICES INITIAL T ERMINAt 1*67 * I OC MONTH MON T H 8-69 9— 69 1 0 - 6 9 1 1- 6 9 12-69 1-70 2 -7 0 3-70 4-70 5-70 6-70 7-70 8-70 9-70 1 0 - 7 0 1 1 -7 0 1 2 - 7 0 1-71 2-71 108.7 ___ 9 - 6 9 __ - 2 . 2 . 10-69 - 1.1 0.0 I 1-69 4*1 7.4 12- 69 4® 8 7.2 1-70 7. 9 10.6 ¿-70 7,3 108.7 110.0 15.3 ._!!_• o_ 1.4-3. U*7_ . 110.6 6.7 13. 8 112.4 21.4 1 0 . 6 ... 1 2 . 5 . 8.6 1«?0 6.4 7.9 9.5 8.1 4— 7 0 4.0 4,9 5,8 4 . 0 ........3 . 3 112.8 4.4 2.7 __“ 2 . i _ 1 1 2 .9 l.l -5.2 - 11 . 1 111.8 1 1 1 .2 5-70 2.8 3.5 4.0 2.2 1.3 -3 .2 -5 .6 -8. 7 -6*3 *- 70 3.1 3.7 4.2 2.7 2.0 -1.5 - 2®9 -4.2 -0.5 5.5 4 , 7_ 4.4 1.8 1. 3 1. 3 5.8 12.5 1.5 0.8 -1.8 - 2.8 -3.6 -1.6 0.0 0.3 -0.3 -0.5 1. 7 3.8 7-70 4.5 5.2 ___5 . 8 8-70 2. 1 2.5 2*8 1 U .T 19 . 9 113. 4 -2.7 -20.9 3.3 -4.2 11 1. 2 16. 2 112.6 9— 7 0 3.1 3.6 3.9 2.8 2.4 10-70 1. 1 1.4 1. 5 0.3 -0.3 -2.5 -3 .3 -3.9 -2.7 -1.9 -3.7 -10.5 -4.8 -21.9 -2.7 -3.4 -4 .0 -2.9 -2.3 -3.8 -9.0 -4 .6 -13.6 -4.3 -5.3 -6.4 1.5 4.4 16 . 5 i 1-70 0.7 0.9 1.0 - 0.1 -0.7 12-70 0.3 0.4 0.5 -0.6 - 1.2 -3 .0 -3.7 -4 .2 -3.3 -2.9 -4.3 -8.5 -5 .0 -11.2 1. 2 1.4 1.5 0.5 0. 1 -1.5 - 2.0 -2 .3 -1.3 -0.7 -1.5 -4.7 -1.1 -5.0 1-71 109.3 110.7 2.9 3.2 3. 4 2.6 2.3 1.0 0.7 0.7 1. 9 2.9 2.6 0.3 4.4 2.1 9.2 14*2 24.1 36.4 1- 71 2.6 2.9 3.0 2.3 2 .C 0.8 0.5 0.4 1. 6 2.4 2.0 0.0 3.4 1.4 6.9 9.9 1 5 .9 15.6 9 - t9 ~ iQ - 6 9 " iT ~ 6 * 1 2 -6 3 “ T - T I T T ^ — I - T i r ^ T O — 5 -7 0 ” 6 - 7 0 7 -7 0 3 - TO 9 -T O ID -T O ,— ♦ 109.9 2- 7 1 ----------------------- 8_ 6 ~ — 1 1 0 .3 ........................ ........ — --------------------------------------------------------------------------- — — NOT SFASGNALLY ADJ USTED -------------------n m m «rrRT-R---------------- - II-7 U 1 2 -T t r 113.6 -2.1 113.4 1 - 7 1 2-Tl ------------------------------------------------------------------- _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ P IEP IW EP B Y 'FEDEWAL KE'S IH fg T O i * TJ F 3 T . T O T O APRIL 1 , 1971 15 General Price Index* Ratio Seal« Ratio Seal« 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 *As used in Notionol Income Accounts 1969 1970 1971 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce P e rce n ta g e s a re a n n u a l rates of ch a n g e for p e rio d s in d ic a te d . Latestdata plotted: 1st quarter preliminary Prepared by Federal Reserve Bonk of St. Louis T M P L IC IT P R I C E D F F L A T O R FOR G RH!> i> N A T I O N A L C O M p n U N O E D ANNUAL R A TCS o f C H A M G E TFRMTNAl QUARTFR INITIAL 2-66 3-66 1-66 3. 6 4-66 1. 4 3.? 1-67 1. ? 3.0 4-66 1-67 ?-67 1-67 4-67 1-6R 2-68 PRODUCT QUARTS 1-60 195B = 100 4-68 1-69 ?-69 i-6<> 4-69 1-70 2-70 3-70 4-70 114. 5 I i 5. 4 116. 2 7.3 *-65 Digitized P - for P R ?FRASER • ÏMÎ MARV 1-67 ?-67 3-67 4-67 1-63 ?-63 T-69 I N i T f A! 4-68“ T-6Ö ? - 6 fr ~ ^ - “69 ^ 6 P " “ i -”7T5— 7^715 “ T - T Ö — ç - T O " oij/yoTp^ • T T '^ TT TT S in ^ 'T Œ ^P W ^Î Tf N K " W S T " . löüT^ Inventories Compared With Monthly Sales* *Ratios b a s e d on s e a s o n a lly a d ju s t e d d a t a . So u rce: U.S. D e p a r t m e n t of C o m m e r c e S h a d e d a r e a s represent periods of business recessions a s d efined by the N ational Bureau of Economic Research. Latest d a t a plotted: F e b r u a r y Pr epar ed by F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o* St. L ou i s
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