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RESEARCH LIBRARY
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
SEPTEMBER 1987
VOLUME 110, NUMBER 9
Federal Reserve Bank
of St. Louis
Henry Lowenstern, Editor-in-Chief
Robert W. Fisher, Executive Editor
O C T 2 0 1987
PROJECTIONS 2000
Ronald E Kutscher
3 Overview and implications of the projections to 2000
Bureau of Labor Statistics moderate projections show 21 million new jobs
over the 1986-2000 period, the preponderance in service-producing industries
Norman C. Saunders
10 Economic projections to the year 2000
Real gross national product growth reflects improved foreign trade deficit,
higher productivity, and continued shift to service-oriented economy
Howard N Fullerton, Jr.
19 Labor force projections: 1986 to 2000
The labor force is projected to total 139 million persons in 2000,
which represents a slowdown in the rate of growth after 1986
Valerie A Personick
30 Industry output and employment through the end of the century
Service-producing industries add more than 20 million jobs;
manufacturing employment declines, but factory output holds steady
G.T. Silvestri, J.M. Lukasiewicz
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46 A look at occupational employment trends to the year 2000
From 1986 to 2000, the number of workers in occupations requiring the most education
and training is projected to grow faster than the average for all occupations
OTHER ARTICLES
Wayne J. Howe
64 Strong employment growth highlights first half of 1987
With employment gains exceeding the expansion of the labor force,
the level and rate of unemployment showed marked improvement
DEPARTMENTS
2
70
71
75
77
Labor month in review
Major agreements expiring next month
Developments in industrial relations
Book reviews
Current labor statistics
Labor M onth
In Review
SURVEY PLANNING. The Bureau of
Labor Statistics responded to a congres
sional request that BLS plan a new
broad-based survey of white-collar pay
and benefits. Here are highlights from
the plan submitted to Congress on
August 13:
Broad coverage. The Bureau plans to
develop the new survey by expanding
and integrating three of its ongoing pro
grams: The National Survey of Profes
sional, Administrative, Technical, and
Clerical Pay; the Employee Benefits
Survey; and the Employment Cost In
dex. Each will be substantially modified
for this endeavor. Implementation of the
new survey will take 5 years, and will
use annual resource levels supported in
the fiscal year 1987 BLS budget.
When operational, the survey will
provide data annually on white-collar
compensation, including employer costs
for salaries and employee benefits. In
addition, the survey will provide
descriptions of employee benefit plans
and pay data for narrowly defined oc
cupations in which workers are classi
fied further by skill level.
In its broadest context, the survey
will cover white-collar employees in
private nonfarm industries and State and
local governments. Samples will
represent the United States as a whole,
and collection will be carried out in all
sizes of establishments except for nar
rowly defined occupational data. The
survey’s design limits data collection
for narrowly defined occupations, such
as accountants, computer programmers,
and engineers, to establishments with
50 employees or more to conserve
resources. To further conserve
resources, the Bureau has planned por
tions of the survey work with alternateyear collection cycles.
Digitized for 2
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Two-year collection cycles will be
used for surveying employee benefit
provisions and salaries of detailed
occupations. For benefit provisions,
medium and large private industry firms
will be surveyed in odd-numbered years
and small private firms and State and lo
cal governments in even-numbered
years. Each year’s product will be pub
lished separately and also will be com
bined with the previous year’s results for
an overall account of employee benefits
reported during the 2-year span.
For salary data on narrowly defined
occupations, the collection cycle will be
for private goods-producing industries
and State and local governments in
even-numbered years, and for private
services-producing industries in oddnumbered years. The Employment Cost
Index will be used to update the salary
information of the unsurveyed compo
nent each year to provide a complete
picture of both years’ efforts.
The new program will use probability
sampling for both establishments and
occupations, thus ensuring objectivity
of the survey results. The design,
however, will ensure that occupations
required for the Federal pay compara
bility process will be taken into account.
The National Survey of Professional,
Administrative, Technical, and Cleri
cal Pay will continue to meet current
Federal pay comparability requirements
through 1989. Beginning in 1990,
detailed occupational data from the new
program will be available. This 2~year
period will allow policymakers time to
ensure that outputs from the new sur
vey meet the needs of the Federal pay
comparability process.
of the President’s Pay Agent under the
comparability process (Office of
Management and Budget, Office of Per
sonnel Management, and the Depart
ment of Labor), the Advisory
Committee on Federal Pay, congres
sional committees, Congressional
Research Service, Congressional
Budget Office, General Accounting
Office, and others. In addition, discus
sions were held with about 300
representatives of business and labor or
ganizations, State and local govern
ments, and academia.
As part of its research for the new
survey, the Bureau also began field tests
involving pay and employee benefit
practices in industries, occupations, and
small establishments not included in the
Bureau’s current white-collar pay
survey.
The tests introduced new statistical
techniques for selection of occupations
to be surveyed, collection of data us
ing broad occupational descriptions,
and classification of professional and
managerial jobs into generic work
levels, such as trainee, fully qualified,
and first-level supervisor. Pay practices
for such occupations as primary and
secondary schoolteachers, university
professors, and sales workers—ranging
from salesclerks to stock and bond
brokers—were documented.
Finally, research and analysis neces
sary to prepare cost level estimates of
pay and benefits from Employment
Cost Index data were completed. The
cost levels, which will be published in
October 1987, will provide a preview
of outputs from the proposed WhiteCollar Pay and Benefits Survey.
Field tests. To prepare the report, BLS
contacted data users in the Federal
Government, including representatives
The report to Congress was prepared
by the Bureau’s Office of Wages and
Industrial Relations.
□
Projections 2000
Overview and implications
of the projections to 2000
Bureau o f Labor Statistics moderate projections show
21 million new jobs over the 1986-2000 period,
mostly in service-producing industries;
the black and Hispanic labor force is estimated
to increase much faster than that o f whites
Ronald
E.
K u t sc h er
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has prepared projections of
the U.S. economy to 2000. Three alternative projections
were developed, based on a range of assumptions which
result in high, moderate, and low rates of economic growth.
The projections encompass the future demographic structure
of the labor force, economic rate of growth and composition
of demand, and industrial and occupational composition of
employment. The Bureau prepares projections biennially;
this latest outlook replaces the projections to 1995, pub
lished in 1985.1 This article summarizes the moderate
projections of the labor force, economic growth, and indus
try and occupational employment, and discusses some
important implications of the projections. The four articles
that follow present the projections in considerably more
detail.
Labor force overview
According to the moderate growth projections, the labor
force is expected to expand by nearly 21 million, or 18
percent, over the 1986-2000 period. This represents a slow
down in both the number to be added to the labor force and
in the rate of growth achieved in the previous 14-year peRonald E. Kutscher is Associate Commissioner, Office of Economic
Growth and Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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riod, 1972 to 1986, when the labor force increased by al
most 31 million, or 35 percent. The projected growth also
represents a slowing from the more recent 1979-86 period.
Consequently, the projected slower growth is a continuation
of a trend that started in the late 1970’s. The rapid increases
in the past were the result of the very large baby-boom
generation (those bom between 1946 and 1964) entering the
labor force, accompanied by rapid increases in women’s
labor force participation rates. The recent slowdown and
that projected for the remainder of the century reflect the
entry of the smaller numbers from the “birth dearth” gener
ation (those born over the 1965-78 period) along with the
slower rate of projected growth in the participation rates of
women. (See table 1.)
Not only is the labor force expected to continued to slow
its rate of increase over the 1986-2000 period, but it is
projected to become increasingly minority and female. For
example, the white labor force is projected to increase less
than 15 percent, while the black labor force is expected to
grow by nearly 29 percent, or 3.7 million workers, more
than 17 percent of the projected total labor force increase.
The Hispanic labor force is projected to grow by about
6 million, or more than 74 percent, and to account for nearly
29 percent of labor force growth over this period. The Asian
and other races group (American Indians, Alaskan Natives,
3
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
September 1987 •
Projections 2000: Overview and Implications
Asians, and Pacific Islanders) is projected to grow by nearly
2.4 million, or 70 percent, and account for more than 11
percent of labor force growth. Blacks, Hispanics, and
Asians and other races are projected to account for 57 per
cent of labor force growth; if non-Hispanic white women are
included, the combined share of future growth reaches more
than 90 percent.
Women are projected to account for 64 percent of the net
increase in the labor force— slightly more than their share of
the 1972-86 labor force growth. Consequently, by 2000,
women are expected to make up more than 47 percent of the
labor force, up from 39 percent in 1972 and 45 percent in
1986.
The age composition of the projected work force is ex
pected to continue some of the current trends at least through
the mid-1990’s, after which a number of these trends will
begin to reverse— some sharply. After the very large babyboom generation was born, a period of significantly lower
numbers of births prevailed until the late 1970’s. From 1978
to the present, births increased (even though the birth rate
was stable or declining) as women of the baby-boom gener
ation began having children. As a result of the fewer births
during the 1965-78 period, the number of 16-year-olds in
the population as well as in the labor force began a decline
in 1976, which is expected to continue until about 1992. The
number of 17-year-olds began a decline in about 1977 which
is expected to continue until about 1993. Each group 1 year
older is expected to follow the same pattern, but 1 year
later— for example, the number of 18-year-olds is expected
to continue to decline until about 1994.
The differing birth cohorts moving into older age groups
have two important consequences for the age composition of
the labor force. (1) By the year 2000, the share of the labor
force age 16 to 34 and over age 55 is projected to decline,
and the share of 35- to 54-year-olds is expected to increase.
(2) For some age groups in the labor force, sharp changes
are expected to take place during the 1986-2000 period. For
example, the number of
• 16- to 24-year-olds is projected to decline until the mid1990’s, then reverse and begin to increase;
• 25- to 34-year-olds is projected to increase through the
early 1990’s, then show a very sharp decline; and
• 55- to 64-year-olds is projected to decline through the
mid-1990’s, then increase very rapidly.
Economic growth and structural changes
According to the moderate projections, the rate of eco
nomic growth, as measured by real gnp, is expected to
increase by 40 percent, or 2.4 percent a year over the 1986—
2000 period. This is only slightly less than the 2.5-percent
annual growth rate over the 1972-86 period, but slightly
more than the 2.0 percent achieved over the 1979-86 pe
riod, which included two recessions. The rate of economic
growth through the year 2000 results from an acceleration
4
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Table 1. Civilian labor force, by sex, age, race, and
Hispanic origin, 1972-86, and moderate growth projections
2000
[Numbers in thousands]
Actual
Group
1972
1979
1986
Total, 16 and o ld e r.. 87,037 104,960 117,837
Projected, Change,
2000
1986-2000
Growth
rate,
1986-2000
138,775
20,938
1.2
Men, 16 and older ........
16 to 2 4 .....................
25 to 5 4 .....................
55 and o ld e r...............
53,556
11,243
33,133
9,180
60,727
13,645
37,926
9.156
65,423
12,251
44,406
8,766
73,136
11,506
53,024
8,606
7,713
-745
8,618
-160
.8
-.4
1.3
-.1
Women, 16 and older. . .
16 to 2 4 .....................
25 to 5 4 .....................
55 and o ld e r...............
33,481
8,943
19,192
5,346
44,233
11,760
26,594
5,879
52,414
11,117
35,159
6,138
65,639
11,125
47,756
6,758
13,225
8
12,597
620
1.6
.0
2.2
.7
White, 16 and older . . . .
Black, 16 and older . . . .
Other, 16 and older1 . . .
Hispanic origin,
16 and older.................
77,275
8,748
91,922 101,801
10,665 12,684
3,352
2,373
116,701
16,334
5,740
14,900
3,650
2,388
1.0
1.8
3.9
8,076
14,086
6,010
4.1
-
-
5,215
1 1ncludes American Indians, Alaskan Natives, Asians, and Pacific Islanders.
Note: Detail for race and Hispanic groups may not add to total because Hispanics are
included in both the white and black population groups. Dash indicates data not available.
Source: Historical data are from the Current Population Survey.
projected for productivity, even as the rate of labor force
growth is projected to slow. Many factors account for the
faster productivity growth incorporated in these projections:
a more mature, educated, and experienced labor force;
greater stability in projected energy prices over the 1986—
2000 period than prevailed in the 1972-86 period; and more
favorable growth in the projected capital-labor ratio, in par
ticular, a slowing of labor force growth and a somewhat
larger increase in the share of investment in producers’
durable equipment.
Changes also are projected in demand structure of gnp
over the 1986-2000 period. Among the most important are:
• Stabilization of the share of consumer durables, which
increased considerably during the 1972-86 period.
• A modest increase in the share of gnp allocated to produc
ers’ durable equipment.
• An increase in the export share of gnp, a reversal from the
trend of the 1979-86 period.
• No change in the import share of gnp, even though the
import share of gnp increased nearly 5 percentage points
over the 1972-86 period.
• A decline in the share of gnp devoted to defense expendi
tures— a reversal of the 1979-86 trend.
• An increase in the growth rate of State and local govern
ment spending, larger than the rate over the 1979-86
period, but not enough to halt the declining share of gnp
allocated to spending by States and localities.
On the income side of gnp, the projections show a rela
tively constant share going to disposable personal income.
Real disposable personal income per capita is projected to
grow 1.6 percent per year, about the same as in the 1972-86
period, but more than the 1.3-percent a year gain over the
1979-86 period. The greater growth rate reflects primarily
the projected faster rate of productivity growth.
Table 2. Employment by major sector, 1972, 1986, and
projected to 2000 low, moderate, and high alternatives
[In thousands]
Employment changes
Of the 21 million new jobs projected for the 1986-2000
period, 20.1 million are expected to be nonagricultural wage
and salary jobs, and 1.7 million nonagricultural selfemployed and unpaid family jobs. These gains are expected
to be offset slightly by a decline in agricultural employment.
The projected employment increase— more than 19 percent
between 1986 and 2000, or 1.3 percent a year— represents
a slowing of employment growth, reflecting, in large part,
slower labor force growth. In terms of absolute growth,
nonagricultural wage and salary workers increased by nearly
26 million over the 1972 to 1986 period, an expansion of
almost 35 percent, or 2.2 percent a year. The projected slow
down in employment growth is not quite so dramatic when
compared to the more recent 1979-86 period in which nona
gricultural wage and salary jobs grew 1.5 percent a year.
By industry. Goods-producing industries are projected to
experience almost no change in employment over the 1986—
2000 period. Service-producing industries, therefore, will
account for nearly all of the projected growth. Among major
groups in the goods-producing industry, the projections
show increasing employment only in construction— nearly
900,000 jobs. (See table 2.) Although agriculture is pro
jected to increase its wage and salary jobs, that increase is
expected to be more than offset by declines among the
self-employed, so that total agriculture is projected to de
cline by more than 300,000 jobs.
Manufacturing employment is projected to decline by
more than 800,000 jobs over the 1986-2000 period. De
clines are projected even though output is expected to in
crease 2.3 percent a year. However, productivity in manu
facturing is projected to grow even faster. Large job growth
is projected for both wholesale and retail trade; more than
1.5 million wage and salary jobs are expected in wholesale
trade and almost 4.9 million in retail trade. This is consistent
with the long-term trend of this industry growing the same
or slightly faster than the economy. The finance, insurance,
and real estate industry also is projected to add more than
1.6 million jobs. However, this represents a considerable
slowing in this sector when compared with the nearly 2.4
million jobs added over the previous 14 years. The service
industries will expand by more than 10 million jobs, with
health care services and business services important contrib
utors as they continue to produce new services that greatly
add to their overall demand and employment growth. Gov
ernment is expected to expand by about 1.6 million jobs—
nearly all at the State and local level.
Although manufacturing employment as a whole is pro
jected to decline through 2000, many of its industries are
projected to grow, quite rapidly in some cases. It is impor
tant to note that in 2000, manufacturing is projected to
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Projected, 2000
Industry
1972
1986
Low
Moderate
High
Total ...........................................
84,549
111,623
126,432
133,030
137,533
Nonfarm wage and salary1. . . .
Goods-producing.................
M ining..............................
Construction ...................
Manufacturing .................
73,514
23,668
628
3,889
19,151
99,044
24,681
783
4,904
18,994
113,554
23,148
672
5,643
16,833
119,156
24,678
724
5,794
18,160
123,013
25,906
779
6,077
19,050
Service-producing1 .............
Transportation and
public u tilitie s...............
Wholesale trad e...............
Retail trade .....................
Finance, insurance, and
real estate ...................
Services1 .........................
Government.....................
49,846
74,363
90,406
94,478
97,107
4,541
4,113
11,835
5,244
5,735
17,845
5,410
7,015
21,795
5,719
7,266
22,702
5,903
7,361
23,079
3,907
12,117
13,333
6,297
22,531
16,711
7,508
30,778
17,900
7,917
32,545
18,329
8,159
33,708
18,897
Agriculture ..............................
Private households.................
Nonfarm self-employed and
unpaid family workers . . . .
3,523
1,693
3,252
1,241
2,784
1,122
2,917
1,215
3,009
1,234
5,819
8,086
8,972
9,742
10,277
1 Excludes sic 074, 5, 8 (agricultural services), and 99 (nonclassifiable establishments);
therefore data are not directly comparable with those from the Current Employment Survey.
provide more than 18 million wage and salary jobs, or 15.2
percent of all wage and salary employment. Generally,
manufacturing industries that are expected to experience
employment declines are those that have been declining for
years, such as basic steel, leather goods, shoes, tobacco,
some of the textile and most of the basic metal processing
industries, and many of the food processing industries. Em
ployment gains are expected among printing and publishing,
drugs and pharmaceutical products, computers, plastic
products, and instruments industries. Some occupations
within manufacturing are projected to grow, even as the
overall employment in manufacturing industries declines.
For example, the engineering and related occupations are
projected to increase by more than 165,000 jobs and man
agerial jobs, by 85,000.
By occupation. Five occupational groups are projected to
experience faster than average employment growth over the
1986-2000 period— technicians, service workers, profes
sional workers, sales workers, and executive and managerial
employees. (See table 3.) Only two groups— farming,
forestry, and fishing workers and private household work
ers— are expected to have absolute declines. Three broad
occupational groups are expected to experience belowaverage growth: precision production, craft, and repair
workers; administrative support workers, including clerical;
and operators, fabricators, and laborers.
When employment by major occupational group is dis
tributed in 1986 and 2000 by the most prevalent 1986 edu
cational level, the projections show a growth in the share of
jobs requiring most workers to have at least 1 year of col
lege. The share of jobs requiring high school completion as
the predominant educational level declines slightly. How5
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
September 1987 •
Projections 2000: Overview and Implications
ever, there is a sharper decline in the share of jobs where less
than a high school education is currently the most prevalent
educational requirement.
If projected employment growth by major occupational
group is compared with jobs currently held by blacks and
Hispanics, a disparity is shown— neither group is well rep
resented in the fast-growing occupations and both groups
are overrepresented in the slow-growing or declining occu
pations. When a similar analysis is done for women, a
disparity also is shown, although it is not nearly as great as
that for blacks and Hispanics. Still, women are not well
represented in some fast-growing occupations such as natu
ral scientists and the architectural occupations.
High and low projections
The high and low alternatives show a relatively broad
band around the moderate alternative. The annual growth
rate of real gnp ranges from 1.6 percent in the low alterna
tive to 3.0 percent in the high. For the labor force, the
difference between the low and high is nearly 6.6 million
workers in 2000. The unemployment rate in 2000 is 7.7
percent in the low alternative, 6 percent in the moderate, and
4.5 percent in the high. In 2000, the low alternative has a
level of employment 6.6 million lower than the moderate
level; the high alternative is 4.5 million higher than the
moderate. The employment range in 2000 is 11.1 million.
Labor force implications
A slower growing labor force along with the changes
expected in its age, sex, and racial composition has several
important implications. For instance, the projected decline
of jobseekers age 16 to 19 offers an opportunity for lowering
the unemployment rate for a labor force group that histori
cally has had a high rate. This is particularly true in light of
the projected large employment increases in eating and
drinking places, retail sales, and many service industries
which typically employ first-time jobseekers. As noted, the
share of labor force growth among blacks and Hispanics is
also projected to increase. These groups traditionally have
had higher unemployment rates than those for whites, which
may make the lowering of the overall unemployment rate
more difficult. This follows unless, of course, past problems
of jobs for minorities can be dealt with, including educa
tional requirements and geographic location of jobs.
Other important implications are drawn from the changes
expected for the 20 to 24 age group, whose number is
expected to continue to decline until the late 1990’s. In
addition to employers who are looking for first-time job
seekers, many others who have a primary interest in this age
group— for example, community and 4-year colleges and
the military— will see the population from which they pri
marily seek students and recruits shrink throughout most of
the 1986-2000 period. Also, producers of goods and serv
ices primarily targeted at 16- to 24-year-olds, from special
ized magazines, cassette tapes, and clothing to motorcycles
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Table 3. Employment by broad occupational group, 1986
and moderate growth projections 2000
[Numbers in thousands]
Percent
change,
1986-2000
1986
Projected,
2000
Total employment .................................................
111,623
133,030
19.2
Technicians and related support workers...........
Service workers, except private household
workers............................................................
Salesworkers .....................................................
Executive, administrative, and managerial
workers............................................................
Professional workers...........................................
Precision production, craft, and repair workers ..
Administrative support workers, including
clerical ............................................................
Operators, fabricators, and laborers .................
Private household workers ................................
Farming, forestry, and fishing workers...............
3,726
5,151
38.2
16,555
12,606
21,962
16,334
32.7
29.6
10,583
13,538
13,924
13,616
17,192
15,590
28.7
27.0
12.0
19,851
16,300
981
3,556
22,109
16,724
955
3,393
11.4
2.6
-2.7
-4.6
Major occupational group
Note: Estimates of 1986 employment, the base year for the 2000 projections, were derived
from data collected in the Occupational Employment Statistics Surveys.
and compact discs, can expect their market base to continue
to decline.
Considerable attention already has been focused on a
potential shortage of workers. Often, this does not reflect an
overall lack of workers, but the declining numbers in the
younger age groups. As a result, in a number of instances,
employers have turned to other sources of workers, such as
immigrants or the recently retired.
The implications of the large baby-boom generation have
been widely discussed. Less well-known and, consequently,
not often discussed is the younger birth dearth group. The
maturation of the birth dearth group already has caused a
decline, first in the number of 16- to 19-year-olds in the
population and in the labor force, and then in 20- to 24-yearolds. In the late 1980’s, that decline will extend to older
groups. Other results will likely occur from the decline in
these age groups. Because they are beyond the age for
first-time jobseekers might mean faster promotions for this
age group, as firms compete for a shrinking labor pool of
managers or skilled technicians and professionals. How
ever, it is important to remember that this group is following
on the heels of the very large baby-boom group, and such
scarcities may never materialize.
Immigrants are projected to account for more than 23
percent of the change in the labor force over the 1986-2000
period. Several important considerations with regard to the
large projected immigrant share of labor force growth are:
(1) to the extent they are not English-speaking, their integra
tion into the work force is considerably more difficult,
(2) given the skill shifts which are implied by the occupa
tional projections, many immigrants may not possess the job
skills which are in high demand in the U.S. economy, and
(3) the geographic distribution of immigrants is more con
centrated than that for the total labor force and, conse
quently, may complicate immigrants’ search for jobs.
The growing share of blacks and Hispanics in the pro
jected labor force poses two important considerations. First,
both groups historically have had higher unemployment
rates than those for whites. Thus, the opportunity for a lower
unemployment rate with the shrinkage of the youth cohort
(with its significantly higher unemployment rates) could be
negated if solutions cannot be found for the high unemploy
ment among blacks and Hispanics. The second consider
ation raised by the faster labor force growth for blacks and
Hispanics is the disparity between their current occupation
and the projected growth in occupational employment. Pol
icymaking will need to focus on ensuring that all youth,
particularly minorities, are given sufficient education to
ease their entry into the job market and to equip them with
the skills needed to advance to better jobs. While education
alone is not the solution to all labor market problems, it is
clearly important in the solution. Information on future job
growth and the education and training necessary for the new
jobs are important for all labor force aspirants.
The increasingly larger role that women are projected to
play in the future labor force raises some of the same consid
erations as those noted for blacks and Hispanics. The gap
between the male and female unemployment rates has nar
rowed— more from an increase in the male rate than from
lowering of the female rate. While in the 1960’s and 1970’s,
unemployment rates for women were typically 1 to 2 per
centage points higher than those for men, that gap has nar
rowed in the 1980’s. During the 1984-86 period, female
unemployment rates ranged from 0.2 to 0.4 percentage
points higher than those for men. However, the occupa
tional distribution of jobs still shows some disparities, even
though the differences have narrowed over the last decade.
An opportunity exists for future improvements, in that an
important source of job growth over the 1986-2000 period
is professional, technical, and managerial jobs, and women
are projected to constitute more than three-fifths of net addi
tions to the labor force.
Economic implications
Several implications can be drawn from the projected
overall economic growth and the changes expected in the
structure of demand over the 1986-2000 period. The projec
tions call for an increase in the rate of productivity growth.
It should be noted that the projected productivity growth is
more uncertain than the projected labor force growth.
Therefore, the economic growth projections can be viewed
as having a higher degree of uncertainty. Consequently,
users should carefully examine all three projection alterna
tives and their implications. For example, the low projection
alternative, which has a rate of real gnp growth of 1.6
percent per year over the 1986-2000 period, results from a
productivity growth rate consistent with the 1972-86 pro
ductivity trend. One very important implication of this pro
jected trend is that real disposable income per capita (one
measure of well-being in the economy) only increases 0.7
percent per year under this alternative, much slower than the
1.7-percent growth during the 1972-86 period, and less
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than one-half the rate of increase projected in the moderate
alternative. Of course, if a faster rate of productivity in
crease should prevail, it would be more favorable for the
economy because that is the primary factor leading to gains
in living standards of the population.
Perhaps the most significant change in trend projected in
the composition of demand for the 1986-2000 period is in
foreign trade. As a result of changes in exchange rates,
exports are projected to increase faster than imports. This is
important both to exporting industries as well as other indus
tries which have been pressured by the very rapid growth of
imports over the last decade, in particular. However, the
extent of the slowdown in import growth and the increase in
export growth varies considerably among industries. The
projections of exports and imports are uncertain, with trends
more volatile than most other demand categories because
numerous factors in many countries influence trends for
U.S. exports and imports. Another difficulty in developing
foreign trade projections is the capacity of some U.S. indus
tries to recover their export markets once they have been
lost— even though a significant turnaround in the value of
the dollar has occurred.
The projected shifts in the structure of demand result in
several other important relationships. The projected lack of
any growth of the younger age groups in the population and
the resulting modest slowdown in household and family
formation will affect expenditure patterns. This is most no
ticeable in consumer durables, particularly in automobile
purchases and new housing construction. Another impact
related to demographic changes in the population is the
health care expenditures of older age groups, particularly
the expected very rapid growth between now and 2000 in the
over age 85 population— projected to increase 3.7 percent
annually, compared with 0.8 percent for the overall popula
tion. Not only is this older group expected to keep health
care expenditures among the most rapidly growing demand
categories, but the distribution of health care purchases also
is projected to shift toward nursing homes and home health
care expenditures.
Another important change in trend included in the projec
tions is the expected slowing of defense expenditures. Real
defense expenditures declined over the 1972-79 period, but
then reversed over the 1979-86 period and have shown an
appreciable increase of 6.2 percent a year. In these projec
tions, defense spending is projected to slow in the late
1980’s, and then gradually decline in the 1990’s such that by
2000, the level of real defense expenditures is projected to
return to near the 1986 level. These projected trends are
particularly important to industries such as aircraft, mis
siles, ships, and electronics which sell a high proportion of
their output to the U.S. Department of Defense.
Industry employment impact
Employment is projected to grow, albeit slower than it
has in the past. Most of the growth is expected among
7
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
September 1987 •
Projections 2000: Overview and Implications
service-producing industries. Further employment declines
are projected for many industries including agriculture,
many mining industries, a significant number of manufac
turing industries, and a few service industries. Conse
quently, workers are expected to continue to be displaced.
Further, because of the geographic concentration of many of
the declining industries, some localities will be hard hit from
these displacements. Although some displaced workers may
obtain related jobs and maintain their standard of living,
others may require further training or education, or both, or
may have to relocate geographically to do so.
Some of those displaced from their jobs, of course, may
not find similar employment, given the occupational shifts
that are projected to occur between now and 2000, particu
larly if they lack the education and training required for the
emerging jobs. Jobs for displaced workers are a problem for
which an easy solution has not been found. Although much
occupational mobility exists in this economy, it is concen
trated primarily among the young. Thus, while it is impor
tant that entry level workers be provided with as high a level
of education as possible, this helps little in finding the best
mechanism for providing the right mix of education and
training needed for displaced workers, particularly if those
displaced are over age 40 and have relatively low educa
tional attainment.2
High tech employment in manufacturing is projected to
slow from the above-average growth of the past decade, as
these industries mature and as several of them continue to
face stiff competition in foreign markets. The computer
manufacturing industry, in particular, accounted for a sig
nificant proportion of total high tech employment growth in
the 1970’s and early 1980’s, but a projected slowing in this
industry’s employment growth is expected to be a major
factor in the high tech future for the rest of this century.
The expected continuation of employment changes in
service-producing industries has several important implica
tions. Firms in some of these industries are likely to be
small. Because small firms have a higher turnover rate, they
may, as a consequence, be less likely to provide a lifetime
employment opportunity for workers. Consequently, work
ers will need to be prepared through education and training
for more frequent changes of employers and occupations.
Also, many smaller firms are often less able to provide other
benefits, such as health care, that large firms may provide.3
A benefit of the increasing share of employment in the
service-producing industries is that the effect of any future
business cycle downturn is likely to be moderated because
the variability of employment is lower in services than in
goods-producing industries such as manufacturing and
construction.
Another trend is developing that will, in all likelihood,
require adjustments in the future. As the work force declines
among the younger age groups and as women increasingly
seek full-time work, a conflict emerges between industries
which traditionally demand a large number of part-time
8
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workers and the economy’s ability to supply those workers.
This conflict could be resolved by these industries moving
back to providing a larger share of full-time jobs, expanding
self-service stores, or drawing older workers into the work
force. If these changes do not occur, one consequence could
be that some seekers of full-time work might be able to find
only part-time employment. Another likely implication is a
slowing, or possibly even a reversal, in the decline of aver
age hours of work, because the share of part-time employ
ment was the primary factor behind past declines in average
hours.
Occupational employment implications
Shifts in industry employment and changes in the staffing
patterns of industries are expected to affect the occupational
structure of employment. Generally, occupations in which
current participants have the most education are projected to
have the most rapid growth rates, even if their relative
growth is slower. Jobs are expected to continue to be avail
able for those with only a high school education. However,
persons with less than a high school education will find it
more difficult to find a job— particularly a job with good
pay and chances for advancement— than those with more
education. Those with less education will continue to have
more labor market problems and less opportunity for ad
vancement because they frequently do not have the educa
tion or training needed to adapt to the continuing changes in
employment resulting from technology advances and
changes in the structure of demand, and to the employment
displacement which may follow these changes. The fact that
large numbers continue to drop out of high school clearly
signals that an important problem remains.4 As pointed out
earlier, blacks and Hispanics are disproportionately repre
sented among those with less education and are projected to
account for an increasing share of workers. Given this trend,
the recent data on declining college enrollment of blacks are
unfortunate.5
Despite the faster than average employment growth for
occupations requiring at least a bachelor’s degree, the sur
plus of college graduates that began in the early 1970’s is
expected to continue through the end of the century. How
ever, the balance between supply and demand for new col
lege graduates is expected to narrow considerably as we
enter the 1990’s, partly because of the decline of college
graduates stemming from the shrinkage in college-age
population.6
Occupations that are generally filled by young workers,
such as food service, retail sales, and construction labor, are
projected to continue to generate many jobs and, as dis
cussed earlier, the declining number of young workers could
offer the opportunity to improve the youth labor market
situation. At the same time, given the expected sharp de
cline in the number of youths, it could also provide employ
ment opportunities for others not often employed in those
jobs, such as those recently retired who desire some work.
Further, this also could offer the opportunity to increase the
labor market participation of some groups such as black men
who currently have much lower labor force participation
rates than do white men of the same age.
Women and blacks traditionally have been highly concen
trated in certain occupations. Although some improvements
have occurred in the past decade in changing this occupa
tional segregation, the future offers a chance for further
improvement because employment growth is projected to be
most rapid in occupations not traditionallly filled by Hispanics, blacks, and, to some extent, women— and labor force
growth will be predominantly from these groups.
1 For the last report on the 1995 projections, see the following articles in
the November 1985 Monthly Labor Review. Betty W. Su, “The economic
outlook to 1995: new assumptions and projections,” pp. 3-16; Howard N
Fullerton, Jr., “The 1995 labor force: b l s ’ latest projections,” pp. 17-25;
Valerie A. Personick, “A second look at industry output and employment
trends through 1995,” pp. 26-41; and George T. Silvestri and John
Lukasiewicz, “Occupational employment projections: the 1985-95 out
look,” pp. 4 2 -5 7 .
W. Horvath, “The pulse of economic change: displaced workers o f 198185,” pp. 3-12; and Sharon P. Brown, “How often do workers receive
advance notice of layoffs?” pp. 13-17.
2 See Displaced Workers, 1979-83, Bulletin 2240 (Bureau of Labor
Statistics, July 1985). For results of 1986 surveys on displaced workers,
see the following articles in the June 1987 Monthly Labor Review: Francis
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3 See Employee Benefit Research Institute’s tabulations o f the May 1983
Current Population Survey.
4 Elementary and Secondary Education Indicators in Brief (Office of
Educational Research and Improvement, 1987).
5 Elementary and Secondary Education.
6 See Trends in Education, 1975-76 — 1995-96 (U.S. Department of
Education, Center for Education Statistics, 1987).
Research fellowships
The American Statistical Association and the Bureau of Labor Statistics,
under a grant from the National Science Foundation, are sponsoring a
Senior Research Fellow and Associate Program for 1988-89. The terms of
appointment range from 1 semester to 1 year and are part or full time.
Research will be conducted at bls in Washington, DC.
Fellowship applicants should have a recognized research record and
considerable expertise in their area of proposed research. Senior Research
Fellows will be selected by a review board consisting of representatives of
asa , bls, the American Economic Association, the Committee on National
Statistics, and the Social Science Research Council. Associates will assist
the Fellows on their projects. Associate applicants should have a Ph.D in
an appropriate field or have made significant progress toward the degree (at
least 2 years of graduate study). Substantial computer experience will, in
most cases, be required of Associates. Associates will be selected by the
Senior Research Fellows with the approval of the review board.
The program is coordinated by the bls Office of Research and Evalua
tion. Current research being conducted by this office includes index num
ber theory and measurement, price measurement, cost-of-living and
demand studies, survey response error, workers’ compensation, compen
sating wage differentials, productivity analysis, relationship of union
membership to employment variability, model-based seasonal adjustment,
prediction properties of index estimators, measures of central location
based on censored data, upper and lower probability inferences for outliers,
and variance estimation.
For further information, contact Dr. Cathryn Dippo or Dr. Marilyn
Manser, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Research and Evaluation,
Room 2126, 441 G Street, nw , Washington, DC, 20212; (202) 5231874 or (202) 523-1347.
9
Projections 2000
Economic projections
to the year 2000
Real gross national product growth averages 2.4 percent
a year, according to moderate projections,
reflecting a slowly improving foreign trade decifit,
higher productivity, and a continued shift
to a more service-oriented economy
N orm an
C.
S aunders
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has prepared projections of
the U.S. economy to the year 2000, our first look at the
remainder of this century. The new projections, with 1986 as
the base historical year, update and extend the previously
published projections.1 As with earlier projections, three
alternatives— termed moderate growth, low growth, and
high growth— were estimated. The alternatives are designed
to provide a range of estimates with variations in those assump
tions to which the aggregate model is the most sensitive.
The moderate-growth alternative is characterized by a
gross national product ( g n p ) influenced by greater produc
tivity increase and slowing labor force growth, a moderately
tapering unemployment rate, and a slowly improving for
eign trade situation. In comparison, the high-growth model
has stronger overall demand, higher inflation, and lower
unemployment, but less favorable foreign trade balances;
while the low-growth version has deeper recessions, slower
productivity growth, declining government spending, and a
higher unemployment rate. Projected real g n p growth for
the 1986-2000 period ranges between 1.6 percent for the
low-growth alternative and 3.0 percent for the high-growth
scenario, providing a spread of $1 trillion in the real g n p
estimates for 2000.
By 2000, under the assumptions used by the Bureau in
developing these projections, g n p is expected to range be
tween $4.6 trillion and $5.6 trillion (in 1982 dollars), with
disposable personal income between $3.2 trillion and $3.9
trillion. The annual employment increase ranges between
Norman C. Saunders is an economist in the Office of Economic Growth
and Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
10 FRASER
Digitized for
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1 million persons in the low-growth scenario and 1.6 million
persons in the high-growth scenario. The unemployment
rate ranges between 4.5 percent in the high projection and
7.7 percent in the low. The following tabulation shows the
levels and percent growth rates for selected key economic
variables, 1982-86 and projected to 2000:2
Projected, 2000
1972
1986
Low
High
Moderate
C iv ilia n u n e m
p lo y m e n t
r a t e ...........
5 .6
7 .0
7 .7
6 .0
4 .5
- 1 6 .8
- 2 0 4 .0
-2 8 9 .1
- 8 9 .3
- 4 4 .1
- 4 8 .8
- 1 4 9 .7
- 3 9 .1
- 9 8 .6
- 1 5 0 .2
F ed e r a l d e f ic it
( b illio n s o f
cu rren t
d o lla r s) . .
N e t e x p o r ts
(b illio n s o f
1982
d o lla r s) . .
Annual growth rate
Projected, 2000
R ea l
gnp
1972-86
Low
Moderate
.......................................
2 .5
1 .6
2 .4
3 .0
im p lic it d e f l a t o r ...........
6 .6
2 .3
3 .4
4 .9
2 .2
1.0
1 .2
1.3
gnp
C iv ilia n la b o r fo r c e
..............
High
E m p lo y m e n t (fr o m h o u s e
h o ld s u r v e y ) .........................
2 .1
.9
1 .2
1.5
R e a l d is p o s a b le p e r so n a l
in c o m e ....................................
2 .7
1 .5
2 .4
3 .0
R e a l d is p o s a b le per ca p ita
in c o m e ....................................
1 .7
.7
1 .6
1 .9
Projections framework
The aggregate economic projections are prepared using
the Wharton Long-Term Model of the U.S. Economy as a
starting point.3 Many exogenously specified variables must
be provided to the model, but analysis has shown that a
relatively small number of these assumptions significantly
affect long-term projections.4 These variables are summa
rized in table 1 and are discussed below.
In addition, the projections are generally approached with
certain results in mind, such as the level of the unemploy
ment rate, the rate of growth of labor productivity, inflation,
the presence or absence of a business cycle, and the sectoral
distribution of employment.
In a change from prior bls projections, a business cycle
was assumed for the 1986-2000 projection period. Reviews
of past projection efforts have indicated that by assuming
steady uninterrupted growth in the economy, growth is
overestimated in the more volatile and cyclically sensitive
gnp components, in particular, consumer durables, produc
ers’ durable equipment, and construction.5 Two recessions
are assumed to occur between 1986 and 2000. This should
not be read as a prediction of a recession in any specific
year; instead, it is a bow to the inevitability of business cycle
fluctuations and the effect the cycle has on long-term de
mand growth and on the distribution of demand.
Second, the unemployment rate in 2000 is assumed to be
slightly below current levels. In spite of temporary increases
in unemployment induced by the assumed business cycle
fluctuations, the moderate scenario has the unemployment
rate declining to 6 percent in 2000, down a percentage point
from the 1986 rate of 7.0 percent.
A third important modification to the model is to impose
the industry distribution of production and employment on
the aggregate projections at a major sector level to reflect the
more detailed analysis carried out at the industry level. The
aggregate projections thus provide control values to the
industry projections but are, in turn, affected by those
projections.
Underlying assumptions— moderate scenario
Many assumptions must be spelled out in very specific
terms to generate an estimate of future growth. The follow
ing discussion focuses on the more important assumptions
underlying the moderate-growth projections.
Fiscal policy. Plans for new defense programs are ex
pected to be gradually curtailed in the coming decade.
Projects for which appropriations have already been made or
planned are expected to keep real defense spending growing
through the end of this decade, when it is projected to peak
at $268 billion. Thereafter, smooth declines are assumed
over the remainder of the projection period, as defense
spending drops to $251 billion in 2000, roughly the same
level as in 1986.
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Real nondefense purchases of goods and services are as
sumed to drop to $78.8 billion by 1990, approximately the
1981-82 level of spending. After 1990, growth returns as
these purchases increase at a relatively smooth average an
nual rate of 2.8 percent over the decade of the 1990’s.
The realities of recent large Federal deficits bring a sense
of general fiscal conservatism to the assumptions affecting
other Federal expenditure categories. No real growth is as
sumed during the 1986-95 period for food stamp benefits,
military retirement and veterans’ benefits, medicare pay
ments, and Social Security benefits. Growth in these cate
gories is a combination of inflation adjustment and client
population shifts only. After 1995, some resumption of
growth in all of these benefits categories is expected— but
still only a modest 1 to 2 percent annually.
Federal subsidies are assumed to be flat in real terms
throughout the period, as are Federal grants-in-aid to State
and local governments.
On the revenue side, the Tax Simplification Act of 1986
has the initial impact of increasing effective personal tax
rates from 10.4 percent in 1986 to 11.2 percent in 1987.
Thereafter, as taxpayers make shifts in their tax strategies,
the effective rate declines steadily over the entire projection
period, reaching 8.9 percent in 2000.
The effective corporate tax rate has increased steadily
from 27 percent in the late 1970’s to its current level of 37
percent. The rate is assumed to remain at this level through
1990, followed by gradual declines to 26 percent by 2000.
The Social Security wage base and combined tax rates are
as mandated by the Social Security Act of 1978.
State and local government spending increased at an an
nual 1.5-percent real rate between 1979 and 1986, less than
the 2-percent rate during the 1972-79 period. Slower
growth from 1979 to 1986 than from 1972 to 1979 resulted
from declining school enrollments and a general trend to
ward slower growth in government provided services. This
pattern is expected to reverse over the next 14 years in
response to several factors.
First, the baby-boom generation has been having chil
dren. These children, the so-called “echo,” are now begin
ning to affect school enrollments, which are already climb
ing in the early grades. Elementary school enrollments are
expected to peak in 1996 and secondary attendance, around
2000. Over the decade of the 1990’s, demand for educa
tional services will increase as a result. However, the echo
will not affect postsecondary education until after 2000.
Further, it is expected that cutbacks or slower growth in
many State-provided services will be tempered in the com
ing years. The net effect of these assumptions is to pull real
State and local spending up to a 2-percent annual rate of
growth, comparable with the 1972-79 period and 0.5 per
centage points higher than the growth during the 1979-86
period.
Monetary policy. Monetary policy in the moderategrowth projection is best described as accommodative.
11
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
September 1987 •
Projections 2000: Economic Trends
Growth of M2 , the broadly defined money supply, has been
set to parallel projected growth in nominal gnp so that mon
etary policy will not choke growth by being too restrictive,
nor re-initiate the inflationary spiral of the 1970’s by being
too loose. The velocity of M2 remains roughly constant, in
the 1.60 to 1.65 range, throughout the projection period.
Both short- and long-term interest rates remain flat in real
terms, rising about 1 percentage point over the 14-year
horizon of the projections in response to the expected rate of
increase in prices.
Demographic. The population estimates underlying the
aggregate projections are the middle-growth series devel
oped by the Bureau of Census.6 These new population pro
jections have been developed with higher immigration and
slightly lower birth rates than in earlier Census Bureau ef
forts. The middle-level civilian labor force projections, de
veloped by bls to be consistent with the new Census Bureau
population estimates, are incorporated in the moderategrowth aggregate projections.7
Other demographic assumptions, such as the number of
households, the number of families, and the number of
unrelated individuals, have all been derived from earlier
Census Bureau projections, modified by bls to reflect the
new population projections.
Table 1.
Foreign economic activity. World gross domestic prod
uct, less that of the United States and centrally-planned
economies, is assumed to grow at a real annual rate of 2.6
percent over the 1986-2000 period, paralleling the perform
ance of this measure during the 1972-86 period. Some
slowdowns are assumed for interim years in response to
recessions in the U.S. economy, but the drop in growth is
relatively small and easily recovered in the following years.
The projections encompass an assumed annual inflation
rate of 5 percent for the same world area, slightly less than
the 5.7-percent inflation rate during the 1979-86 period and
well below the disastrously high 15.3-percent annual infla
tion during the 1972-79 period, which was caused primarily
by rapid increases in oil prices.
In 1981, the exchange value of the dollar began a sharp
and steady increase, culminating in 1985 with the U.S.
dollar valued almost 64 percent higher than in 1980. As a
result, imports became less expensive and flooded the
United States while the Nation’s exports, now more expen
sive, were choked out of many of their traditional foreign
markets. The dollar’s exchange value dropped 22 percent in
1986. It has been assumed that the exchange rate will stabi
lize at its 1982 level and remain steady at that level for the
remainder of the decade.
Major assumptions affecting aggregate economic projections, 1972, 1979, 1986, and projected to 2000
[In billions, unless noted otherwise]
Projected, 2000
Item
1972
1979
Item
Low
Federal Government:
Defense purchases,
1982 dollars .............
Nondefense purchases,
1982 dollars .............
Food stamps, 1982
dollars........................
Military retirement, 1982
dollars........................
Medicare, 1982 dollars
Social Security, 1982
dollars........................
Other transfers, 1982
dollars........................
Old Age, Survivors,
and Disability Insurance taxable income,
current dollars...........
Old Age, Survivors,
and Disability Insurance tax ra te .............
Grants-in-aid, current
dollars.......................
Subsidies, current
dollars.......................
Transfers to foreigners,
current dollars..........
Interest to foreigners,
current dollars...........
Projected, 2000
1986
Moderate
185.3
164.3
251.0
222.5
251.0
263.0
60.7
71.9
82.4
97.3
103.4
108.2
6.5
7.7
9.6
10.4
12.2
14.9
29.4
18.5
30.2
37.8
28.1
57.9
28.4
75.2
30.1
83.0
32.1
94.1
116.3
131.3
169.7
209.0
243.4
293.9
39.6
43.6
53.5
55.5
58.6
61.3
10,800
22,900
41,500
89,700
89,700
89,700
9.0
12.3
14.3
15.5
15.5
15.5
37.5
80.5
104.0
143.0
192.1
235.1
7.9
9.2
25.6
20.2
26.1
29.4
2.9
5.2
13.7
14.8
15.2
17.3
2.7
11.1
23.0
49.2
48.7
46.3
State and local
government:
Education, 1982
dollars........................
Health and welfare,
1982 dollars .............
146.8
41.8
165.0
67.9
178.7
73.7
195.3
86.3
223.1
103.4
232.5
12
1979
1986
Low
Safety, 1982 dollars . . .
Other purchases,
1982 dollars .............
Transfer payments,
1982 dollars .............
Dividends, current
dollars.......................
Net interest, current
dollars.......................
Demographic (in millions):
Number of families . . . .
Number of households .
Number of unrelated
individuals.................
Civilian labor force . . . .
Armed Forces...............
Self-employed persons .
Unpaid family workers ..
Adjustment fa c to r.........
Foreign:
World gross domestic
product, 1982
dollars.......................
World gross domestic
product, deflator
(1982 = 10 0 ).............
Exchange rate of the
U.S. dollar.................
Crude oil imports,
million barrels
per d a y .....................
Import oil price, dollars
per barrel .................
Moderate
High
26.2
31.4
40.5
109.9
108.8
121.6
140.8
163.3
171.1
59.1
73.2
93.4
110.3
117.3
121.5
45.4
54.2
56.8
.3
2.0
6.6
7.3
7.3
7.3
-1.5
-11.8
-26.0
-45.2
-49.6
-57.6
52.1
69.0
59.3
78.8
63.2
88.6
73.1
109.0
73.1
109.0
74.8
111.5
21.4
86.6
2.6
5.4
.5
-.9
24.4
104.9
2.1
6.8
.5
-1.6
32.2
117.9
2.2
7.9
.3
-1.9
40.4
134.5
2.3
8.9
.1
-1.7
40.4
138.8
2.3
9.7
.2
-1.9
40.8
141.1
2.3
10.2
.2
-2.1
5,571.9
6,946.4
7,930.1
9,082.2
11,314.2
12,836.4
29.5
80.0
117.6
203.6
232.6
266.0
132.4
131.9
103.5
97.3
97.3
97.3
3.1
6.5
4.8
6.3
7.6
8.5
5.74
21.67
15.88
43.71
48.40
53.10
108.2
Source: Historical data are from the Bureau of the Census and the Bureau of Economic
Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce: Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates, Inc.; U.S.
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1972
High
Department of Energy: and the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Projected data are from the Bureau of
Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Census.
Energy. Assumptions regarding oil prices, import levels
of crude petroleum and natural gas, and domestic produc
tion levels of crude petroleum, natural gas, and coal have
been set in accordance with projections prepared by the U.S.
Department of Energy.8 These projections assume a nomi
nal crude oil import price of $48.40 per barrel in 2000. In
constant 1986 prices, this translates to a barrel price of
$30.90 in 2000, roughly a doubling of real imported oil
prices in the next 14 years.
General assumptions. It was assumed that there would be
no major wars, oil embargoes, other major price shocks, or
serious natural catastrophes during the projection period.
Moderate growth results
Real gnp is projected to increase 2.4 percent a year be
tween 1986 and 2000, for a 40-percent increase over the
period. This compares to the 2.5-percent growth rate over
the 1972-86 period and the 2-percent rate over the 1979-86
period. A summary of demand growth is shown in table 2.
A change from historical behavior is reflected in the fact
that half of the projected growth in real gnp is attributable to
growth in labor productivity and half to growth in employ
ment. During the 1972-86 period, only 28 percent of the
change in real gnp was contributed by productivity increase.
Personal consumption. As in the past, the personal con
sumption expenditures (pce) component is projected to grow
slightly more rapidly than overall gnp, increasing its share
of gnp from 65.8 percent in 1986 to 66.4 percent by 2000.
This results largely from cuts in personal taxes over the
1987-90 period, spurring further increases in consumption.
Spending for durable goods is projected to account for a
fixed share of the consumer budget over the next decade, as
purchases of consumer electronics and the specialized furni
ture necessary to house the new equipment grow rapidly,
offsetting expected slowdowns in auto sales.
Consumer spending for autos and parts is projected to
grow 0.9 percent a year between 1986 and 2000, down
considerably from the 4.6-percent pace over the 1979-86
period. The sluggish expansion is attributed to a slowdown
in the growth of the “new driver” population and to the two
assumed recessions over the projection horizon. Durable
consumption as a whole continues to account for just more
than 15 percent of total consumer spending, unchanged
from 1986. (See table 3.)
Nondurable consumption continues to account for a
smaller share of aggregate pce over time. Many nondurable
items, such as clothing and food, represent basic necessities
of living and, as such, are relatively income inelastic. As
family incomes rise beyond certain basic subsistence levels,
the increases tend to be spent more on luxury items than on
the basic necessities.
Nondurables accounted for 38.2 percent of real consump
tion in 1979, dropped to a 36.1-percent share by 1986, and
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Table 2. Gross national product by major demand
categories, 1972, 1979, 1986, and projected to 2000
[Billions of 1982 dollars]
Projected, 2000
Item
1972
1979
1986
Gross national product .
Personal consumption . . .
Durables.......................
Nondurables.................
Services.......................
Gross private domestic
investment ...............
Equipment ...................
Structures.....................
Residential...................
Inventory change ........
Exports ............................
Imports ............................
Federal Government . . . .
Defense.......................
Nondefense .................
State and local
government .................
2,608.5
1,621.9
200.4
665.5
756.0
3,192.4
2,004.4
266.5
766.6
971.2
465.4
167.5
109.5
166.6
21.8
195.2
244.6
246.0
185.3
60.7
Gross national product .
Personal consumption . . .
Durables.......................
Nondurables.................
Services........................
Gross private domestic
investment ...............
Equipment ...................
Structures.....................
Residential...................
Inventory change ........
Exports ............................
Imports ............................
Federal Government . . . .
D efense.......................
Nondefense .................
State and local
government .................
High
Low
Moderate
3,678.5
2,418.7
368.9
872.4
1,177.4
4,617.5
3,101.2
472.9
1,038.3
1,590.0
5,161.4
3,429.4
527.2
1,116.4
1,785.9
5,552.4
3,659.7
589.0
1,204.6
1,866.1
575.2
258.8
130.6
170.8
15.0
356.8
353.2
236.2
164.3
71.9
659.7
320.3
134.7
193.9
10.8
371.3
521.0
333.4
251.0
82.4
767.8
424.8
146.5
190.9
5.6
516.8
555.9
319.8
222.5
97.3
932.1
504.2
198.8
202.1
27.0
634.5
733.0
354.4
251.0
103.4
1,103.2
560.8
224.6
279.6
38.2
712.0
862.2
371.2
263.0
108.2
324.7
373.0
414.5
467.8
544.0
568.6
100.0
62.2
7.7
25.5
29.0
100.0
62.8
8.3
24.0
30.4
100.0
65.8
10.0
23.7
32.0
100.0
67.2
10.2
22.5
34.4
100.0
66.4
10.2
21.6
34.6
100.0
65.9
10.6
21.7
33.6
17.8
6.4
4.2
6.2
.8
7.5
9.4
9.4
7.1
2.3
18.0
8.1
4.1
5.4
.5
11.2
11.1
7.4
5.2
2.3
17.9
8.7
3.7
5.3
.3
10.1
14.2
9.6
6.8
2.2
16.6
9.2
3.2
4.1
.1
11.2
12.0
6.9
4.8
2.1
18.1
9.8
3.9
3.9
.5
12.3
14.2
6.9
4.9
2.0
19.9
10.1
4.0
5.0
.7
12.8
15.5
6.7
4.7
1.9
12.4
11.7
11.3
10.1
10.5
10.2
Percent distribution
Average annual rate of growth (in percent)
Gross national product .
Personal consumption . . .
Durables........................
Nondurables.................
Services........................
Gross private domestic
investment ...............
Equipment ...................
Structures.....................
Residential...................
Inventory change ........
Exports ............................
Imports ............................
Federal Government . . . .
Defense........................
Nondefense .................
State and local
government .................
1986-2000
197279
197986
197286
2.9
3.1
4.2
2.0
3.6
2.0
2.7
4.8
1.9
2.8
2.5
2.9
4.5
2.0
3.2
1.6
1.8
1.8
1.2
2.2
2.4
2.5
2.6
1.8
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.4
2.3
3.3
3.1
6.4
2.5
.8
-5.2
9.0
5.4
-.6
-1.7
2.4
2.0
3.1
.4
1.8
-4.6
.6
5.7
5.0
6.2
2.0
2.5
4.7
1.5
1.3
-4.9
4.7
5.5
2.2
2.2
2.2
1.1
2.0
.6
-.1
-5.1
2.4
.5
-.3
-.9
1.2
2.5
3.3
2.8
.4
5.0
3.9
2.5
.4
0
1.6
3.7
4.1
3.7
2.6
9.3
4.8
3.7
.8
.3
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.8
.9
2.0
2.3
Low
Moderate
High
Source: Historical data are from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of
Commerce. Projected data are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
are projected to account for just 32.6 percent by 2000. All
of the major nondurable subcategories decline in share terms
except for other nondurables, which include purchases of
cleaning products and toiletry articles, drug preparations,
paper products, and a long list of other nondurable house
hold items. Strong growth in the purchases of cleaning items
and drug preparations raise the other nondurables category
to a 7 . !-percent share of total pce in 2000, up from a 6.313
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
September 1987 •
Projections 2000: Economic Trends
percent share in 1986, and reversing a slowing trend appar
ent over the 1970’s and early 1980’s. (See table 3.)
Because of slowing growth in auto sales, more efficient
engines, and the general energy conservation awareness of the
1980’s, real spending on gasoline and oil is expected to remain
virtually unchanged in real terms over the projection horizon.
Purchases of consumer services are projected to grow
quite strongly over the 1986-2000 period, increasing from
48.7 percent of total consumption in 1986 to 52.1 percent in
2000. Spending for housing, household operation, and
transportation will remain a virtually fixed share of con
sumption during this period. All of the share growth occurs
in health and other consumer services, which covers a range
of recreational, social, educational, personal, and profes
sional activities.
Health services are projected to grow at a real rate of 3.5
percent a year, increasing their share of overall consumption to
10.8 percent in 2000 from 9.5 percent in 1986. This is
attributable to both the generally aging population and the
expected continued development of new, but increasingly more
expensive, medical procedures. Very sharp increases are ex
pected in spending for a variety of consumer entertainment—
legitimate theater, commercial sporting events, and health
clubs and spas, to name a few. Also expected to grow faster
than average is personal spending on all types of financial
services, as the level of sophistication with which consumers
approach money management continues to increase.
Investment. Although pce still accounts for the lion’s
share of gnp, the moderate projections are also characterized
by strong, sustained growth in business fixed investment.
Purchases of producers’ durable equipment are expected to
increase at an annual real rate of 2.5 percent over the projec
tion period, or about $19 billion each year.
Although off sharply during both of the assumed reces
sionary periods, purchases of producers’ durable equipment
are expected to recover strongly from both downturns and to
grow more rapidly than overall gnp during the recovery
years. Producers’ durable equipment will continue the trend
evident in the late 1970’s and early 1980’s in which it
accounted for an increasing share of real gnp. This upward
shift principally reflects slowing growth in the sector-level
user cost of capital. Declining corporate tax rates, lower
inflation, and lower long-term interest rates all serve to
make the expected stream of services from current invest
ment relatively less expensive than during the 1970’s and
1980’s, thus leading to more rapid growth in capital accu
mulation over the projection period. Equipment purchases
accounted for 8.7 percent of gnp in 1986 and are expected
to account for more than 10 percent by 2000.
By major consuming sector, the most rapid growth in
spending for equipment is projected for durable manufactur
ing and communications, both expected to spend at a real
rate of 4.5 percent between 1986 and 2000. The slowest
growth sectors are transportation (0.8-percent annual
Digitized for14
FRASER
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table 3. Durable, nondurable, and services consumption
in 1972, 1979, 1986, and projected to 2000
Level (billions of 1982 dollars)
Percent distribution
Item
1972
1979
Projected,
Projected,
1986
1972 1979 1986
2000
2000
Durable consumption . $200.4 $266.5 $368.9
Autos and parts . . .
98.3 119.4 164.0
Household furniture.
70.2
97.1 140.3
Other durables . . . .
31.8
50.1
64.5
$527.2
187.0
226.3
113.9
100.0 100.0 100.0
49.1 44.8 44.6
35.0 36.4 38.0
15.9 18.8 17.4
100.0
35.5
42.9
21.6
Nondurable
consumption ...........
Food and beverages
Clothing and shoes .
Gasoline and oil . . .
Fuel oil and coal . . .
Other nondurables .
665.5
344.2
80.3
87.0
28.6
125.3
766.3
387.5
112.1
97.1
26.2
143.7
872.4
440.7
155.5
105.2
18.7
152.3
1,116.4
541.6
201.3
105.8
24.4
243.2
100.0 100.0 100.0
51.7 50.6 50.5
12.1 14.6 17.8
13.1 12.7 12.1
4.3
3.4
2.1
18.8 18.8 17.5
100.0
48.5
18.0
9.5
2.2
21.8
Services consumption
H ousing.................
Household operation
Transportation ___
Health ...................
Other services ___
756.0
235.5
108.6
66.0
136.0
210.0
971.2 1,177.4
304.1 351.4
138.3 150.7
82.9
85.0
192.2 229.8
253.7 360.5
1,785.9
510.9
218.4
118.4
371.7
566.5
100.0 100.0 100.0
31.2 31.3 29.8
14.4 14.2 12.8
8.7
8.5
7.2
18.0 19.8 19.5
27.8 26.1 30.6
100.0
28.6
12.2
6.6
20.8
31.7
growth) and agriculture and public utilities (both exhibiting
2.5-percent annual growth). Nondurable manufacturing in
dustries are expected to buy new equipment at a 3.5-percent
rate of increase, not as fast as the growth of equipment
purchases by durable goods producers, but still above the
overall average growth rate for this component of demand.
Almost one-fifth of the total expenditures for producers’
durable equipment is expected to be for computers, the
largest single item of all the equipment commodities. Heavy
investment in factory automation and robotics also leads to
large purchases of certain types of industrial machinery,
particularly metalworking machinery and material moving
equipment, and of scientific and controlling devices. Com
munications equipment is projected to be the most rapidly
growing, and the third largest producers’ durable equipment
purchase, as the demand for telecommunications services
leads to high levels of spending on satellites and other com
munications equipment. Investment demand for motor vehi
cles, including trucks, is projected to grow more slowly than
total equipment spending, but will still rank second in terms
of overall levels.
Overall capital accumulation accelerates throughout the
projection period in most sectors of the economy, leading to
strong growth in labor productivity, especially in the manu
facturing industries.
A recovery from the commercial building glut of the late
1970’s and early 1980’s is also projected, as investment in
nonresidential structures increases 2.8 percent each year
between 1986 and 2000, up sharply from the 0.4-percent
annual growth in the 1979-86 period.
Residential construction is expected to slow over the next
14 years, growing at an average real rate of 0.4 percent
between 1986 and 2000. As with autos, the slowdown is
determined by both cyclical and demographic factors, as the
formation of new households is projected to slow dramati
cally during the 1990’s, pulling down the level of housing
starts over the projection period. The aging of the popula
tion, particularly among those of retirement age, is expected
to increase demand for multi-unit starts relative to single
unit starts.
Foreign trade. The sharp reduction in the exchange value
of the dollar seen in 1986 is assumed to continue until 1990,
but at a much slower rate. This drop in the value of the
dollar, accompanied by relatively robust assumptions re
garding foreign economic growth, leads to almost 4-percent
annual real growth projected for exports of goods and services
between 1986 and 2000. Although substantially better than
export performance in the early 1980’s, the dramatic im
provement in exports expected by many economic analysts
in response to declining dollar values fails to materialize in
the projections because of changes in foreign markets and in
U.S. industries during the period of reduced export trade.
Many of the countries which, during the 1960’s and
1970’s, maintained large agricultural import balances with
the United States have now not only developed the capabil
ity to feed their own populations from within but are, quite
often, becoming net agricultural exporters. It is unlikely,
therefore, that the United States has any chance of replicat
ing the past booms in agricultural exports.
Many export markets in less-developed countries were
also lost during the early 1980’s. However, now that U.S.
exports are again becoming price-competitive, many of
these countries are facing serious debt problems, effectively
locking them out of foreign markets.
Most significantly, however, a large number of already
vulnerable industries, such as farm and garden equipment,
engines, turbines, and generators, and other nonelectrical
machinery producers, were hit hard by the strong dollar of
the early 1980’s, forcing them to shrink at an accelerated
pace and making it highly unlikely at this point that they will
be able to respond as strongly as in past periods to increasing
foreign demand. (See table 4 for exports by major end-use
categories.)
Imports, in contrast, are expected to grow much less
rapidly, as the value of the dollar is assumed to decline. The
slowdown in import growth due to financial considerations
is, however, at least partially offset as softening oil prices are
assumed to lead to major reductions in domestic exploration for
and production of crude petroleum and natural gas. As the
demand for primary and secondary energy products continues
to expand over the 1990’s, it is assumed that the shortfall in
domestic production is made up entirely from imports.
As a result, the grave trade imbalances of the mid-1980’s
improve substantially over the projection period, but are not
fully resolved. The real net export balance is expected to
decline slowly to $99 billion in 2000. (See table 4 for im
ports by major end-use categories.) The drop in auto imports
reflects the assumption that the dollar’s decline will result in
less competitive prices for foreign cars and in more foreign
automakers setting up factories in the United States.
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table 4. Exports and imports by major end-use cate
gories, 1972, 1986, and projected to 2000
[In billions of 1982 dollars]
Item
1972
1986
Projected,
2000
Annual growth rate
(in percent)
1972-86
Projected,
1986-2000
$195.2
131.3
$371.3
237.5
$634.5
416.4
4.7
4.3
3.9
4.1
16.3
7.5
39.5
39.7
17.0
11.3
25.7
13.9
62.1
90.1
21.1
24.7
51.6
22.8
96.8
167.3
26.0
51.8
3.3
4.5
3.3
6.0
1.6
5.7
5.1
3.6
3.2
4.5
1.6
5.3
Services.................
Factor income . . .
Military sales . . . .
Other services . . .
64.0
33.9
3.1
27.0
133.8
76.9
8.1
46.1
218.1
134.3
5.4
78.3
5.4
6.0
7.1
3.9
3.6
4.1
-2.9
3.9
Total imports .............
Merchandise...........
Food, feed, and
beverages . . . .
Consumer goods .
Industrial supplies
Petroleum products
Capital goods . . .
Autos and parts ..
Other merchandise
244.6
190.7
521.0
420.4
733.0
563.8
5.5
5.8
2.5
2.1
17.4
25.4
46.9
56.0
10.9
26.6
7.7
23.1
73.6
73.9
75.9
90.9
66.7
16.2
30.0
111.2
86.5
122.1
111.7
56.5
45.8
2.0
7.9
3.3
2.2
16.4
6.8
5.5
1.9
3.0
1.1
3.5
1.5
-1.2
7.7
Services.................
Factor income . . .
Defense purchases
Other services . . .
53.9
11.1
4.8
38.9
100.7
44.2
10.6
44.5
169.2
80.1
16.2
72.9
4.6
11.1
4.8
1.0
3.8
4.3
3.1
3.6
Total exports .............
Merchandise...........
Food, feed, and
beverages . . . .
Consumer goods .
Industrial supplies
Capital goods . . .
Autos and parts ..
Other merchandise
Government. As a whole, government purchases of goods
and services are expected to account for a smaller share of
gnp over time, dropping from almost 21 percent of gnp in
1986 to 17.4 percent by 2000. Most of the declining share
is accounted for by Federal Government spending slow
downs. Defense spending is expected to account for 4.8
percent of gnp in 2000, down from a share of almost 7
percent in 1986, while nondefense spending drops off
slightly in importance, from 2.2 percent of gnp in 1986 to
1.9 percent in 2000.
Other Federal expenditure categories are also projected to
account for a declining share of gnp during the next 14
years, as shown in the following tabulation:
Percent
of
nominal
gnp
1972
1986
Projected,
2000
2 0 .5
8 .7
2 4 .5
2 0 .5
..............
8 .7
6 .7
T r a n s fe r p a y m e n t s .................
6 .9
9 .1
8 .9
N e t in terest
1.2
3 .2
2 .5
3 .7
3 .1
2 .3
1 9 .6
T o t a l F e d e r al e x p e n d itu r e s
G o o d s and s e r v i c e s
..
...............................
O th e r s p e n d i n g
......................
T otal F e d e r al r e c e ip t s
..............
19.1
19.6
.........................
8 .9
8 .6
7 .3
......................
3 .0
2 .0
2 .1
. . .
1 .6
1 .2
1 .4
......................
1 .6
7 .8
8 .7
...............................
1 .4
4 .9
1 .0
P e r so n a l t a x e s
C o r p o r a te ta x e s
In direct b u s i n e s s ta x e s
S o c i a l in su r a n c e
c o n t r ib u t io n s
F e d e r al d e f ic it
15
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
September 1987 •
Projections 2000: Economic Trends
Federal receipts are expected to account for a fixed share
of gnp, just under 20 percent. The burden is expected to
shift, however, as personal, corporate, and indirect business
taxes together account for 55.4 percent of total Federal
revenues in 2000, down from the 60.2 percent accounted for
by these three tax categories in 1986. The burden is shifted
to social insurance contributions, which are expected to
account for almost 45 percent of Federal tax collections in
2000 (up from 39.8 percent in 1986), and by the early
1990’s are expected to become a more important source of
Federal revenues than personal income taxes.
The net effect of these changes is that, in the bls projec
tions, a gradually shrinking deficit results, declining from
$204 billion in 1986 (4.9 percent of gnp) to $85.6 billion in
2000 (0.9 percent of gnp).
As the following tabulation shows, State and local spend
ing is up slightly in share terms, as increasing demand for
educational services in the mid- to late 1990’s temporarily
expands government educational shares, which are offset
ting slower growth elsewhere:
Percent of nominal
GNP
Projected ,
2000
1972
1986
e x p e n d i t u r e s ...............................
1 3 .7
1 3 .3
1 4 .4
G o o d s an d s e r v i c e s
..............
11.9
11.8
1 2 .9
......................
1.8
1.5
1.5
1 4 .8
14.7
15.0
2 .8
.4
3 .6
3 .7
.5
.5
7 .5
7 .0
7 .3
T o ta l S ta te and lo c a l
O th e r s p e n d i n g
T o ta l S ta te an d lo c a l
r e c e i p t s ..........................................
P e r so n a l ta x e s
.........................
Corporate taxes
......................
Indir ec t b u s i n e s s t a x e s
. . .
Productivity growth in the manufacturing sector is pro
jected to be much more robust than for the economy as a
whole, continuing a historical trend that has been especially
pronounced in recent years. Capital investment in factory
automation, continued energy substitution, contracting out,
restructuring of inefficient operations, and other factors
noted over the 1986 to 2000 period are expected to continue
to contribute to high growth in manufacturing productivity.
Employment. Between 1979 and 1986, civilian household
employment expanded at an annual average rate of 1.5 per
cent, or about 1.5 million persons. This was just slightly
lower than the rate of increase in the civilian labor force over
the same period. Employment is projected to increase by
just under 21 million persons between 1986 and 2000, an
annual average increase of almost 1.5 million employed
persons. The civilian unemployment rate, at 7 percent in
1986, is expected to reach 6 percent in the year 2000. (See
table 5.)
Income. No particular surprises are projected for income
distributions over the decade of the 1990’s. Personal income
accounts for virtually the same share of gnp in the year 2000
as in 1986. Disposable personal income, in contrast, ac
counts for a slightly greater share of gnp in 2000 than in
1986, because of the declines in effective personal tax rates
as a result of tax changes enacted in 1986.
Real per capita disposable income is expected to reach
$13,421 by 2000, reflecting a continuation of the rate of
increase noted over the 1972-86 period, but a resurgence
from the slower growth this measure experienced between
1979 and 1986. The personal savings rate is projected to
S o c i a l in su r a n c e
c o n t r ib u t io n s
G r a n t s - in - a id
......................
.9
1.1
1 .4
............................
3.1
2 .5
2 .0
Inflation. The rate of growth of prices, as reflected by the
implicit gnp deflator, is projected to moderate from the
1972-86 pace of 6.6 percent to a 3.5-percent rate over the
1986-2000 period. As noted earlier, monetary policy has
been assumed that will be stimulative to growth without
providing enough pressure to re-ignite the inflationary spiral
of the 1970’s.
Labor productivity. Productivity, represented in the
model and in these projections by real gnp per employee,
increased at a dismal rate of 0.3 percent each year between
1972 and 1979. During the next 7 years, productivity fared
only slightly better, growing at an average rate of 0.5 per
cent between 1979 and 1986. Sustained growth in invest
ment and the movement of much of the labor force into
prime working-age years is expected to cause a modest
recovery in labor productivity, gnp per employee is pro
jected to increase at an average annual rate of 1.2 percent
between 1986 and 2000.9
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Table 5. Labor force, employment, and labor productivity
1972, 1979, 1986 and projected to 2000
[In millions, unless noted otherwise)
Projected, 2000
Item
Civilian labor fo rc e .............
Civilian employment (from
household survey) .........
Unemployed .....................
Unemployment rate
(percent).....................
Nonagricultural establish
ment employment ...........
gnp per employee (thousands
of 1982 dollars)...............
1972
1979
1986
Low
Moderate
High
87.0
104.9
117.8
134.5
138.8
141.1
82.2
4.9
98.8
6.1
109.6
8.2
124.1
10.4
130.4
8.3
134.8
6.4
5.6
5.8
7.0
7.7
6.0
4.5
73.7
89.8
100.2
114.1
119.7
123.6
32.30
33.55
37.20
39.57
41.20
30.25
Average annual rate of growth (in percent)
1986-2000
1972-79
Civilian labor fo rc e .............
Civilian employment (from
household survey) .........
Nonagricultural establishment employment...........
gnp per employee (thousands
of 1982 dollars)...............
1979-86
1972-86
Low
Moderate
High
2.7
1.7
2.2
1.0
1.2
1.3
2.7
1.5
2.1
.9
1.2
1.5
2.9
1.6
2.2
.9
1.3
1.5
.9
.5
.7
.7
1.2
1.5
High and low scenarios
Table 6. Gross national product as income, 1972, 1979,
1986, and projected to 2000
[Billions of current dollars, except where noted]
2000
Item
Gross national product ..
Net national product . . . .
National incom e.............
Compensation ...........
Proprietors' Income . . .
Rental income ...........
Corporate profits........
Net Interest income . . .
Personal Income ...........
Disposable personal
income ...................
Billions of 1982 dollars
Per capita, current
dollars.....................
Per capita, 1982
dollars.....................
1972
1979
1986
1,212.8
1,104.8
994.1
726.2
98.3
17.9
100.7
51.0
981.6
2,508.2
2,242.2
2,047.3
1,491.2
191.9
5.6
200.1
158.3
2,034.0
839.6
1,794.4
Low
Moderate
High
4,208.5
3,753.4
3,387.4
2,498.3
278.9
15.6
299.7
294.9
3,487.0
7,312.4
6,722.7
5,993.3
4,661.9
407.5
59.0
579.3
708.3
5,961.2
9,455.0
8,710.7
7,852.8
5,676.0
602.5
61.7
791.4
721.2
7,752.1
12,637.5
11,587.9
10,482.5
7,530.3
833.3
36.9
1,097.2
984.7
10,433.3
1,729.3
2,212.6
2,973.7
2,603.7
5,178.9
3,218.8
6,705.6
3,626.1
8,908.2
3,938.1
4,000.0
7,628.0
12,312.0
19,168.0
24,819.0
31,782.0
8,562.0
9,829.0
10,780.0
11,914.0
13,421.0
14,050.0
Percent distribution
Gross national product ..
Net national product . . . .
National in com e.............
Compensation ...........
Proprietors' Income . . .
Rental income ...........
Corporate profits.........
Net interest income . . .
Personal income ...........
Disposal personal
incom e.......................
100.0
91.1
82.0
59.9
8.1
1.5
8.3
4.2
80.9
69.2
100.0
89.4
81.6
59.5
7.7
.2
7.8
6.3
81.1
100.0
89.2
80.5
59.4
6.6
.4
7.1
7.0
82.9
100.0
91.9
82.0
63.8
5.6
.8
7.9
9.7
81.5
100.0
92.1
83.1
60.0
6.4
.7
8.4
7.6
82.0
100.0
91.7
82.9
59.6
6.6
.3
8.7
7.8
82.6
68.9
70.7
70.8
70.9
70.5
Average annual rate of change (in percent)
1986-2000
1972-79 1979-86
Gross national product ..
Net national product. . . .
National Incom e.............
Compensation ...........
Proprietors' Income . . .
Rental income ...........
Corporate profits........
Net interest income
Personal income ...........
Disposable personal
income ...................
Billions of 1982 dollars.
Per capita, current
dollars.....................
Per capita, 1982
dollars.....................
1972-86
Low
Moderate
High
10.9
10.6
10.9
10.8
10.0
-15.3
10.3
17.6
11.0
7.7
7.6
7.5
7.6
5.5
15.8
5.9
9.3
8.0
9.3
9.1
9.2
9.2
7.7
-1.0
8.1
13.4
9.5
4.0
4.3
4.2
4.6
2.7
10.0
4.8
6.5
3.9
6.0
6.2
6.2
6.0
5.7
10.3
7.2
6.6
5.9
8.2
8.4
8.4
8.2
8.1
6.3
9.7
9.0
8.1
10.9
3.0
8.1
2.4
9.5
2.7
4.0
1.5
6.0
2.4
8.2
3.0
9.8
7.0
8.4
3.2
5.1
7.0
2.0
1.3
1.7
.7
1.6
1.9
A high- and a low-growth scenario, providing bounds
around the moderate-growth aggregate projection, have
been estimated based on differing sets of assumptions out
lined in table 1.
The low-growth projection was designed primarily to pro
vide a scenario over the decade of the 1990’s in which many
current problems persist without much improvement. Labor
productivity is assumed to grow at the same rate as it did
during the 1972-86 period— 0.7 percent annually. Com
bined with an assumption of deeper recessions and relatively
sluggish recoveries, this leads to a real gnp almost $550
billion lower in 2000 than in the moderate projection, with
employment lower by 6.3 million.
The high-growth projection, on the contrary, assumes
labor productivity growth of 1.5 percent each year between
1986 and 2000, only minor slowdowns in gnp increase, and
strong, sustained recoveries in other years, resulting in a gnp
of $5.6 trillion in 2000, almost $500 billion higher than in
the moderate projection. The sustained growth leads to an
unemployment rate of 4.5 percent in 2000, implying 4.1
million more employed persons that year than in the moder
ate projection.
The two alternatives encompass a $935 billion spread in
real gnp, a 6.3 million difference in the civilian labor force,
and a 10.4 million range in the number of employed per
sons. Major results of the alternatives, compared with the
moderate-growth projection, are as follows:
_________
Low
Civilian unemployment
r a t e ..............................
Federal deficit, billions of
current dollars ...........
Net exports, billions of
1982 d o lla rs...............
Real
gnp .......................
implicit deflator . . .
Civilian labor force . . . .
Employment (from household su rv ey )...............
gnp per employee ........
gnp
In summary, the moderate-growth scenario describes a
growing economy characterized by a slowly improving Fed
eral deficit, a return to higher productivity growth, and a
continuation of the shift to a more service-oriented econ
omy. The most pervasive problem facing the U.S. economy
over the next decade will be our chronic trade deficit. Re
ductions in the value of the dollar are seen as only the first
step necessary to forge a recovery from the current wide
trade gap.
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High
7.7
6.0
4.5
-289.1
-8 9 .3
44.1
-3 9 .1
-9 8 .6
-150.2
Annual rate of growth, 1986-2000
Source: Historical data are from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of
Commerce. Projected data are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
range between 3.7 percent and 6.0 percent over the 19862000 period, generally higher than the 1986 rate of 3.9
percent.
2000_________
Moderate
Low
Moderate
High
1.6
3.3
1.0
2.4
3.5
1.2
3.0
5.0
1.3
.9
.7
1.2
1.2
1.5
1.5
M ajor dem and category sum m aries are provided in table 2,
em ploym ent sum m aries in table 5, and income com parisons
in table 6.
Underlying assumptions. Federal Government expendi
tures are higher in the high-trend and lower in the low-trend
alternatives than in the base projections. Conversely, spend
ing as a share of nominal gnp shows the opposite relation
ship: high-trend government spending accounts for a smaller
17
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
September 1987 •
Projections 2000: Economic Trends
proportion of gnp and low-growth government spending a
higher proportion of gnp than in the base projection. The
following tabulation shows projected Federal spending in
2000, total and as a share of gnp:
Billions of
current dollars
F e d e r al s p e n d i n g .
Share of G N P
(in percent)
Low
High
Low
High
2 0 .3
$ 1 ,5 8 8 .0
$ 2 ,5 4 9 .8
21 .8
G o o d s .................
4 9 1 .3
8 2 7 .8
6 .8
6 .6
T r a n s fe r s
....
65 1 .3
1179.4
9 .0
9 .4
.................
4 4 5 .4
5 4 2 .6
6 .0
4 .3
O th e r
In other words, faster or slower gnp growth in the alter
natives is attributed, not to fiscal stimulus, but to other
causes, primarily the wide range of productivity growth
assumptions.
Higher rates of inflation, combined through the tax sys
tem with higher private incomes, yield much higher Federal
revenues in the high-trend projection, resulting in a bal
anced Federal budget in 2000. The opposite effect is appar
ent in the low-trend projection, resulting in a Federal deficit
of $289 billion in the year 2000.
In the low-growth projection, the same population levels
are assumed as in the moderate-growth scenario, but an
assumption of a lower labor force participation rate results
in slower labor force growth. Alternatively, the high-growth
scenario assumes a participation rate identical to the
moderate-growth projection, but assumes a larger popula
tion, resulting from a more rapid than expected influx of
immigrants, both documented and undocumented.
A projected unemployment rate of 7.7 percent in 2000 for
the low-growth alternative leads to employment levels 6.3
million lower than in the moderate-growth projection. Con
versely, in the high-growth scenario, an unemployment rate
of 4.5 percent, combined with the larger labor force, yields
employment higher by 4.1 million in 2000. Thus, the pro
jections allow for a range of possible employment levels in
the year 2000 of 10.4 million.
Sluggish foreign economic growth combined with lower
world inflation serves to dampen exports somewhat in the
low-growth alternative. However, imports drop off even
more sharply in this alternative in response to lower gnp
growth in the United States, leading to a much improved
foreign trade balance.
Faster gnp growth in the high alternative elicits far greater
import levels. Correspondingly higher rates of foreign eco
nomic growth have a much smaller effect on exports, lead
ing to a steadily deteriorating trade balance in the highgrowth projection.
FOOTNOTES
1 For previous projection articles, see the November 1985 issue of the
Monthly Labor Review.
2 In this tabulation, and elsewhere in the article, labor productivity is
represented by real gross national product per employee. It is important to
note that this measure o f productivity is not comparable with those devel
oped within the Office of Productivity and Technology, Bureau of Labor
Statistics. For the definitions of labor productivity, multifactor productiv
ity, and other related measures, and their historical data series, see the
Current Labor Statistics sections of the Review.
3 The Wharton model was selected from the commercial models offered
to the Bureau on the basis o f a competitive procurement and should not be
deemed either more or less suitable, on a theoretical basis, than the other
models considered in the procurement action. A detailed description of the
Wharton model is provided in Long-Term Model Structure and Specifica
tion (Philadelphia, Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates, 1982). A
concise statement of b l s ’ overall projection methodology is contained in
Employment Projections for 1995: Data and Methods, Bulletin 2253 (Bu
reau o f Labor Statistics, 1986).
4 For a detailed description of the analysis and results of this study, see
Norman C. Saunders, “Sensitivity of bls economic projections to exoge
nous variables,’’ Monthly Labor Review, December 1986, pp. 23-29.
5 As part of an ongoing effort to improve the projection methods and
results, the BLS has evaluated the accuracy of earlier projection estimates.
See the following Monthly Labor Review articles: John Tschetter, “An
evaluation ot b l s ’ projections of 1980 industry employment,” August
1984, pp. 12-22; Howard N Fullerton, Jr., “How accurate were the 1980
labor force projections?” July 1982, pp. 15-21; and Max Carey and Kevin
18
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Kasunic, “Evaluating the 1980 projections of occupational employment,”
July 1982, pp. 2 2-30. Analyses of the various projections for 1985 pub
lished by bls are being prepared.
6 See Projections of the Population of the United States, 1987 to 2080,
Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 1018 (Bureau of Census,
forthcoming).
7 See Howard N Fullerton, Jr., “Labor force projections: 1986 to 2000,”
Monthly Labor Review, September 1987, pp. 19-29.
8 See Annual Energy Outlook 1986 (U .S. Department of Energy, 1987).
The Energy Department publishes each year a range of alternative energy
scenarios. Scenarios consistent with the bls estimates of gnp and inflation
were chosen to fill in the energy assumptions.
9 Based on historical relationships between g n p and the private business
sector, the Office of Productivity and Technology, Bureau of Labor Statis
tics, has adjusted the projected 1986—2000 “ g n p per employee” growth rate
of 1.2 percent to “business sector output per employee” and “output per
hour” estimates. The adjusted rates of growth, placed in a historical per
spective, are as follow:
Business sector output
1948-73 ..................................................
1973-86 ..................................................
1973-79 .............................................
1979-86 ......................................................
1986-2000 .............................................
Per hour
Per employee
2.9
.9
.6
2 5
4
.1
7
1.2 to 1.3
l.o
1.6
Projections 2000
Labor force projections:
1986 to 2000
According to BLS projections, there will he
139 million persons in the 2000 labor force,
representing a slowdown in the rate o f growth after 1986;
because o f population or participation growth rates,
blacks, Hispanics, and Asians and others are expected
to increase their representation in the labor pool
H ow ard
N F u l l e r t o n , Jr .
The labor force is projected by the Bureau of Labor Statis
tics to be 139 million persons in the year 2000. This repre
sents growth of 21 million persons between 1986 to 2000 in
the moderate of three alternative labor force projections;
well below the 31 million added to the labor force between
1972 and 1986. The projected growth rate of 1.2 percent
annually is less than the 2.2-percent annual rate over the
1972-86 period. (See table 1.)
Some trends in the labor force projections— the expected
growth in the share of women in the labor force and the drop
in the share of workers 55 and older— are the result of
anticipated changes in participation rates. Women were only
39 percent of the labor force as recently as 1972; by 2000,
they are projected to be 47 percent. The older population,
which is growing as a share of the overall population, is
projected to have lower labor force participation rates in
2000 and, as a consequence, a smaller share of the labor
force. (See table 2.)
Other changes expected between 1986 and 2000 reflect
underlying population changes. The proportion of youths
(those 16 to 24 years) dropped from 23 percent of the labor
force in 1972 to 20 percent in 1986 and is projected to fall
Howard N Fullerton, Jr. is a demographic statistician in the Office of Economic
Growth and Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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further to 16 percent by 2000. The drop in the youth share
of the labor force for the 1972-86 period reflects the end of
the entry of the baby-boomers, while the projected drop
reflects the lower numbers of births in the 1970’s. Blacks,
who were 10 percent of the labor force in 1972 and 11
percent in 1986, are projected to be 12 percent by 2000. The
increased share of the labor force for blacks results from
their population growth. Hispanics also are projected to
increase their share of the labor force from 7 percent in 1986
to 10 percent by 2000, reflecting both population and partic
ipation growth. Asians and others are projected to increase
their labor force share from 3 percent in 1986 to 4 percent
in 2000, as the result of rapid population increase.1
This article presents b l s ’ first look at the 2000 labor
force.2 The alternative labor force projections are presented
by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin. They are based on the
Bureau of Census middle population projection and b l s
projections of future trends in labor force participation.3
Components of labor force projections
Population. There are two major factors that determine
labor force growth: changes in population and in labor force
participation rates. The process of making projections is not
exact; to indicate the possible range of uncertainty, b l s (and
the Census Bureau) prepares alternative projections.4 Labor
19
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
September 1987 •
Projections 2000: The Labor Force
force participation rate projections were prepared for three
racial groups and independently for Hispanics by sex and
age.5
To prepare population projections, assumptions about the
future paths of births, deaths, and net migration must be
made. The Bureau of Census new population projections
used in the labor force projections (and in the other projec
tion articles in this issue) are based on the following assump
tions about these major elements needed to project popula
tion change:
Fertility. In the long run, fertility changes are always
most important for projecting the population. Between now
and 2000, the fertility assumptions would not affect the size
of the 2000 population over the age of 16.
There is no Hispanic population projection available
that is consistent with the current Bureau of the Census
population projection, bls has decided to use the high
migration scenario from the Census Bureau’s most recent
Hispanic population projection.6 The assumptions for
this projection are for Hispanics to have an ultimate co
hort fertility rate of 1.9 children per woman, an ultimate
life expectancy at birth of 81.0 years, and yearly net
migration of 361,000.7 The latter number is assumed to
include 212,000 undocumented immigrants, consistent
with the initial years, but not with the later years of the
current overall projection. Future direction and magni
tude of immigration, both documented and undocu
mented, is uncertain at this time. As a consequence, pro
jections of the Hispanic population, because they are
affected so much by immigration, are subject to more
uncertainty than the overall population.
Net migration. The Bureau of Census assumption for the
middle scenario is that both immigration and emigration will
be high. The higher immigration assumption reflects the
inclusion of undocumented aliens who are added in the
middle population projections for the first time. The higher
emigration assumption reflects the greater return migration
of foreign-born persons to their native countries. The net
migration (immigration less emigration) scenario reflects an
assumption that new immigration legislation, which will not
be fully implemented until the end of 1988, will reduce the
level of undocumented migration, but not entirely end it.
Table 1.
Civilian labor force by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, actual 1972, 1979, and moderate growth projections 2000
Level (In thousands)
Group
1972
1979
1986
Total, 16 and over ...........................................
87,037
104,960
117,837
Men, 16 and o v e r.............................................
16 to 24 ...................................................
25 to 54 ...................................................
55 and ove r...............................................
53,556
11,243
33,133
9,180
60,727
13,645
37,926
9,156
65,423
12,251
44,406
8,766
Women, 16 and o v e r ......................................
16 to 24 ...................................................
25 to 54 ...................................................
55 and o v e r...............................................
33,481
8,943
19,192
5,346
44,233
11,760
26,594
5,879
White, 16 and o v e r...........................................
Black, 16 and o v e r...........................................
Asian and other,1 16 and over .......................
Hispanic,2 16 and o v e r....................................
77,275
8,748
—
91,922
10,665
2,373
5,215
—
Change (In thousands)
Projected,
2000
Percent change
1972-79
1979-86
138,775
17,923
12,877
20,938
20.6
12.3
17.8
73,136
11,506
53,024
8,606
7,171
2,402
4,793
-2 4
4,696
-1,394
6,480
-390
7,713
-745
8,618
-160
13.4
21.4
14.5
-.3
7.7
-10.2
17.1
-4.3
11.8
-6.1
19.4
-1.8
52,414
11,117
35,159
6,138
65,639
11,125
47,756
6,758
10,752
2,817
7,402
533
8,181
-643
8,565
259
13,225
8
12,597
620
32.1
31.5
38.6
10.0
18.5
-5.5
32.2
4.4
25.2
.1
35.8
10.1
101,801
12,684
3,352
8,076
116,701
16,334
5,740
14,086
14,647
1,917
9,879
2,019
979
2,861
14,900
3,650
2,388
6,010
19.0
21.9
10.7
18.9
41.3
54.9
14.6
28.8
71.2
74.4
—
—
1986-2000
1972-79
_
-
Percent distribution
1972
1979
1986
Total, 16 and over .............................................
Men, 16 and o v e r.................................................
16 to 25 .......................................................
25 to 54 .......................................................
55 and o ve r...................................................
100.0
61.5
12.9
38.1
10.5
100.0
57.9
13.0
36.1
8.7
100.0
55.5
10.4
37.7
7.4
100.0
52.7
8.3
38.2
6.2
2.7
1.8
2.8
1.9
Women, 16 and o v e r ...........................................
16 to 24 .......................................................
25 to 54 .......................................................
55 and over...................................................
38.5
10.3
22.1
6.1
42.1
11.2
25.3
5.6
44.5
9.4
29.8
5.2
47.3
8.0
34.4
4.9
White, 16 and o v e r...............................................
Black, 16 and o v e r...............................................
Asian and other.1 16 and over ............................
Hispanic,2 16 and o v e r........................................
88.8
10.1
87.6
10.2
2.3
5.0
86.4
10.8
2.8
6.9
84.1
11.8
4.1
10.2
1 The “Asian and other” group includes American Indians, Alaskan Natives, Asians, and Pacific
Islanders. The historic data are derived by subtracting “Black” from the “Black and other" group;
projections are made directly.
2 Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race. Labor force data for Hispanics are not available
20
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—
1986-2000
Growth rate
Projected,
2000
—
1979-86
before 1976.
3 The rate is -0.05 to 0.05 percent.
Note: Dash indicates data not available.
1972-79
1979-86
1986-2000
(3)
1.7
1.1
-1.5
2.3
- .6
1.2
.8
-.4
1.3
-.1
4.1
4.0
4.8
1.4
2.5
-.8
4.1
.6
1.6
(3)
2.2
.7
2.5
2.9
1.5
2.5
5.1
6.4
1.0
1.8
3.9
4.1
_
-
Table 2. Civilian labor force participation, by sex, age,
race, and Hispanic origin, actual 1972, 1979, and 1986, and
moderate growth projections 2000
Growth rate
Projected,
2000
1972 1979 1986
1972-79 1979-86 1986-2000
Actual
Group
Total, 16 and over . . . .
60.4
63.7
65.3
67.8
0.8
0.4
0.3
Men, 16 and o v e r.........
16 to 24 ...............
25 to 54 ...............
55 and over...........
79.0
71.3
95.1
53.3
77.8
75.0
94.4
46.6
76.3
73.0
93.8
40.4
74.7
74.3
92.6
34.1
- .2
.7
-.1
-1.9
- .3
- .4
- .1
-2.0
- .2
.1
-.1
-1.2
Women, 16 and over ..
16 to 24 ...............
25 to 54 ...............
55 and over ...........
43.9
53.0
51.0
24.5
50.9
62.5
62.3
23.2
55.3
64.3
70.8
22.1
61.5
69.5
80.8
21.4
2.1
2.4
2.9
-.8
1.2
.4
1.8
- .7
.8
.6
.9
-.2
White, 16 and ov er . . . .
Black, 16 and over . . . .
Asian and other,1
16 and over .............
Hispanic,2
16 and over .............
60.4
60.2
63.9
61.4
65.5
63.5
68.2
66.0
.8
.3
.4
.5
.3
.3
—
65.9
64.9
65.8
—
.2
.1
-
63.5
65.4
68.7
-
.4
.4
-
1 The “Asian and other” group includes American Indians, Alaskan Natives, Asians, and
Pacific Islanders. The historic data are derived by subtracting “Black” from the “Black and other"
group; projections are made directly.
2 Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race. Labor force data for Hispanics are not
available before 1976.
Note: Dash indicates data not available.
The number of persons ages 65 and older increased more
than twice as fast as the overall population during the 1972—
86 period; those 85 and older increased more than four times
as fast.
Changes in the total population are reflected in the civil
ian noninstitutional population 16 and older with a lag.
Between 1972 and 1986, the civilian noninstitutional popu
lation grew by 1.6 percent annually, while over the 1986—
2000 horizon, the population is projected to grow signifi
cantly more slowly, by 0.9 percent. (See table 3.)
An important event of the post-World War II period is the
great flows of migrants documented and undocumented,
into and out of this country. In the future, according to these
population projections, immigration would be an increasing
share of population growth. Immigrants are generally of
working age. There are slightly more women than men
among the documented entrants. As a consequence of the
projected overall decrease in births, net migration, even
though declining somewhat, still is projected to continue to
be an increasing share of population growth:
1972-79 1979-84 1986-95 1995-2000
Summary o f population changes, 1986-2000. The overall
U.S. population, which increased by 1 percent annually
between 1972 and 1986, is projected to grow by 0.8 percent
yearly to 2000. This slowing reflects the anticipated drop in
births as well as the slight drop in net migration. The rate of
increase will not be uniform across age, race, or Hispanic
origin groups.
As the following tabulation indicates, over the 1972-86
period, the number of persons (ages 18 to 24) entering
college or their first job rose, while the number of those
(ages 14 to 17) in high school dropped slightly. The number
of those (ages 5 to 13) in elementary school dropped more
substantially, while the number of preschoolers increased.
Over the 1986-2000 period, many of these younger age
groups show a reversal of trend; the number of persons ages
18 to 24, which had been increasing during the 1972-86
period, is projected to drop through 2000:
T o ta l p o p u la t io n
( m i l l i o n s ) .........................
W h i t e .................................
B la c k .................................
A s ia n and o t h e r ...........
H i s p a n i c .........................
1972
1986
2000
...........
...........
20 9 .9
1 8 3 .3
26 8 .3
2 2 1 .5
...........
...........
23 .6
2 .9
2 4 1 .6
20 4 .7
29 .4
35.1
1 1 .6
1 8 .5
3 0 .3
1.5
18.1
34 .2
1 4 .8
28 .0
29 .2
2 .8
1 6 .9
3 3 .5
1 5 .3
2 5 .2
3 4 .9
4 .6
144.1
180.6
204.7
......
Y e a r s o f age:
0 to 4 ................................. ...........
5 to 13 ............................... ...........
14 to 17 ............................ ...........
18 to 2 4 ............................ ...........
6 5 an d o l d e r .................... ...........
8 5 an d o l d e r .................... ...........
Civilian noninstitutional
population 16 and older
(millions) ..................................
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7 .5
17.1
39 .9
1 6 .6
26 .1
2 1 .0
Percent of
population . . .
17.2
25.7
29.9
32.2
The effect of the higher net migration is an increase in the
number of people of working age and a decrease in the
number of older people. To the extent that immigrants have
different age, educational, and occupational compositions
than the resident population, this would affect the future
work force. A summary of the Census Bureau’s projections
for 2000 and estimates for the 1986 and related earlier years
population are displayed in table 4.8
Projections o f labor force participation change. Trends in
labor force participation rates— the second important factor
affecting the size of the labor force of the future— were
projected by bls for 114 groups by age, sex, and race or
ethnicity. After the rate of change for each sex and race
group for the 1979-86 period was estimated, the labor force
participation rate for the group was extrapolated by age. The
resulting cross-sectional patterns for specific race-sex
groups were examined for 2000 and, when these patterns
were inconsistent with historical patterns, they were modi
fied. The cohort participation rates were also plotted and, if
inconsistent with historic patterns, the projected participa
tion rates were modified. For these two reasons, adjust
ments mainly affected participation rates for women in the
preretirement years. The projected pattern of participation
for white women did not result in a drop in participation
between ages 25 to 29 and 30 to 34 as it has in the past.
However, this was accepted as consistent with developing
patterns, though it has yet to manifest itself, reflecting pri
marily the fact that women increasingly are less likely to
withdraw from the labor force after children are born.
21
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
September 1987 •
Projections 2000: The Labor Force
The primary methodological change in this set of projec
tions involved the development of projections for five-yearof-age groups for blacks. Participation rates were also calcu
lated for the Asian and other labor force, but after
examination of the historical data, there was so much yearto-year variation that the growth patterns in labor force
participation of whites were used instead to project the
Asian and other labor force.
Labor force participation rates for women of prime
working age (25 to 54) and older ages were assumed not to
exceed that of men. After examination of the preliminary
employment projections, the assumed participation rate of
young whites was adjusted upward to reflect anticipated
growth in job opportunities for first-time jobseekers and the
declining number of youth available for those jobs.
Compositional changes in the labor force
A g e. By 2000, prime working-age persons would make
up 73 percent of the labor force, up from 67 percent in 1986
(table 1). This reflects underlying demographic changes; the
baby-boom generation will still be in the prime working
ages, but between 1995 and 2000, the “echo” of the baby
boom (their children) are projected to begin entering the
labor force. Despite this, the youth in the labor force are still
projected to account for a smaller share of the labor force in
2000 than in 1986, 16 percent, compared with 20 percent—
although their share is expected to be even lower in 1995.
The share of older workers (55 and older) also is projected
to shrink between 1986 and 2000 by about
percentage
points. The share of workers 55 and older is projected to be
slightly lower in 1995, because that is when the group
known as the “birth dearth of the 1930’s” enters the retire
ment years. The following tabulation shows the number, in
millions, of persons in each major age group for 1972-86
and the rate of growth for 1986-2000.
Youth
Prim e working age
O lder
Period:
1 9 7 2 .............................
1 9 8 6 ................................
2000
.........................
2 0 .2
2 3 .4
5 2 .3
1 4 .5
7 9 .6
1 4 .9
2 2 .6
1 00.8
1 5 .4
1.1
3 .0
.2
1.7
.2
G row th rate:
1 9 7 2 - 8 6 .................
1 9 8 6 - 2 0 0 0 ...................
-.2
The labor force group age 55 and older is projected to
decrease between 1986 and 1995, but then increase between
1995 and 2000. During the latter period, this group would
be the fastest growing component of the labor force. The
youth labor force, which has been decreasing since 1980, is
also projected to decline until 1995, before increasing more
rapidly than the overall labor force. The prime working-age
group is the only one that is projected to grow throughout
the period, even though some age groups within this broader
age group are expected to decline for at least part of the
1986-2000 period. The prime age work force grew by 3
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percent annually between 1980 and 1986; this growth rate is
projected to drop to 2.6 percent for the rest of this decade,
1.8 percent for the early 1990’s, and less than 1 percent
yearly until 2000.
The changes in such broad age groups are a reflection of
the changing size of underlying finer age groups, which are,
in turn, a reflection of past variability in births. To further
explicate the process, we describe the changes in various
detailed age groups.
After the baby boom (defined by the Census Bureau as
starting in 1946 and ending in 1964), the number of births
dropped until 1975, with a modest upswing in 1968-70.
Since 1976, births have increased as the women of the baby
boom became mothers, the “echo” to the baby boom. As a
result of the drop in births that started in 1960, the number
of 16-year-olds in the population and labor force began to
decline about 1976 and is expected to continue to decline
until 1992. (There was a short-lived “boomlet” between
1968 and 1970, resulting in an increase in the number of
teenagers during 1986-88.) The number of 17-year-olds
began to decline in 1977, 1 year after the number of 16-yearolds. The decline should end 1 year later than for 16-yearolds, or 1993. Looking at larger age groups which are less
sensitive to yearly variations in births, we see that the num
ber of 16- to 19-year-olds began dropping in the late 1970’s
and is projected to continue to do so until the mid-1990’s.
Thereafter, this age group is projected to increase as the
larger number born after 1978— the echo to the baby
boom— begins to enter the labor force. The teenage labor
force is projected to drop by nearly 1.5 million between
1986 and 1992 and then to increase by 1.4 million between
1992 and 2000.
This effect— reversal in direction over the 1986 and 2000
period— also is projected to prevail for other age groups.
Numbers of labor force participants 20 to 24 years of age
began to drop in the early 1980’s and are projected to de
cline by 2.4 million people between 1986 and 1997 before
beginning to increase. The labor force ages 25 to 29, which
has been growing rapidly, is projected to decline from the
late 1980’s until after 2000. The drop would be 2.9 million
between 1986 and 2000. For those in the labor force who are
30 to 34 years old, the projected decline begins in the early
1990’s. In the late 1990’s, the next older group, ages 35 to
39 starts its decline in absolute numbers. The 30-to-34-yearolds are projected to increase by 2.1 million through the
early 1990’s and then decline by 2.2 million by 2000. The
35 to 39 group is projected to increase by 4.2 million be
tween 1986 and the mid-1990’s and then to decline only
slightly by the year 2000.
Race or ethnicity. Blacks are projected to account for 18
percent of labor force growth between now and the end of
the century. This would be significantly above their current
share of the overall labor force. Blacks made up 11 percent
of labor force growth between 1972 and 1979, 16 percent
Table 3. Civilian noninstitutional population, by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, actual 1972,1979, and 1986, and
projected to 2000
1972
1979
1986
Projected,
2000
Total, 16 and over .....................................................................
144,122
164,865
180,589
204,699
20,743
15,723
Men, 16 and o v e r.......................................................................
16 to 24 .............................................................................
25 to 54 .............................................................................
55 and o ve r.........................................................................
67,835
15,768
34,840
17,227
78,021
18,184
40,184
19,653
85,799
16,773
47,343
21,683
97,962
15,489
57,250
25,223
10,186
2,416
5,344
2,426
7,778
-1,411
7,159
2,030
Women, 16 and over ................................................................
16 to 24 .............................................................................
25 to 54 .............................................................................
55 and over.........................................................................
76,287
16,887
37,595
21,805
86,844
18,827
42,692
25,325
94,790
17,293
49,672
27,825
106,737
15,999
59,094
31,644
10,557
1,940
5,097
3,520
White, 16 and o v e r....................................................................
127,904
143,898
155,433
171,230
Black, 16 and o v e r.....................................................................
14,543
17,366
19,989
24,750
Asian and other,1 16 and over .................................................
-
3,601
5,164
8,719
Hispanic,2 16 and o v e r..............................................................
-
8,208
12,343
20,490
1 The “Asian and other" group includes American Indians, Alaskan Natives, Asians, and Pacific
Islanders. The historic data are derived by subtracting “Black” from the “Black and other” group;
projections are made directly.
2 Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race. Data for Hispanics are not available before
between 1980 and 1986, and are projected to account for 17
percent between 1986 and 1990. The following tabulation
shows the number, in millions, of persons in the labor force
and the growth rate, in percent, by race or ethnic origin,
1972-86 and 1986-2000:
Labor force
Group
1972
1986
Growth rate
2000
1972-86
1986-2000
T o t a l ....................
8 7 .0
11 7 .8
1 3 8 .8
2 .2
1.2
W hite
......................
7 7 .3
101.8
1 1 6 .7
2 .0
1.0
B lack
.......................
16.3
2 .7
1 .8
8 .7
12.7
A s i a n an d
o t h e r ....................
-
3 .4
5 .7
-
3 .9
H i s p a n i c .................
-
8.1
1 4 .1
-
4.1
There are projected to be 16.3 million blacks in the labor
force in 2000, up 3.7 million from 1986. This represents a
higher annual growth rate, 1.8 percent, than those projected
for whites and for the overall labor force. Black labor force
participation is projected to grow 0.3 percent annually, as is
that of whites. By 2000, blacks are projected to account for
12 percent of the labor force, up 1 percentage point from
1986.
The white labor force is projected to grow by 15 million
between 1986 and 2000, reaching a level of 117 million.
Whites have historically been the largest share of the labor
force, but this share has been dropping and is projected to
continue to do so— in 1972 it was 89 percent and by 2000,
it should be 84 percent. Thus, the white labor force, which
also includes nearly all of the Hispanics, is growing more
slowly than the overall labor force, 0.2 percent per year less
over both the historical period, 1972-86, and the projected
period, 1986-2000. This slower growth reflects slower pop
ulation increases (table 2), because labor force participation
of whites is projected to grow at the same rate as the overall
labor force.
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Growth rate
Change (in thousands)
Level (in thousands)
Group
1972-79
1979-86
1986-2000
24,110
1.9
1.3
0.9
12,163
-1,284
9,907
3,540
2.0
2.1
2.1
1.9
1.4
-1.1
2.4
1.4
1.0
- .6
1.4
1.1
7,946
-1,534
6,980
2,500
11,947
-1,294
9,422
3,819
1.9
1.6
1.8
2.2
1.3
-1.2
2.2
1.4
.9
- .6
1.2
.9
15,994
11,535
15,797
1.7
1.1
.7
2,823
2,623
4,761
2.6
2.0
1.5
-
1,562
3,555
-
5.3
3.8
-
4,135
8,147
-
6.0
3.7
1972-79
1979-86
1986-2000
1976,
NoTE: Dash indicates data not available.
Source: Based on U.S. Bureau of Census “middle” population projections.
The Asian and other labor force is projected to increase 71
percent, or by 2.4 million persons, between 1986 and 2000.
This increase reflects a high rate of population growth,
which, in turn, reflects higher births and immigration of this
group. By 2000, persons of Asian and other races would
constitute 4 percent of the labor force, up from less than 3
percent in 1986. Over the 1986-2000 period, Asians and
others account for 11 percent of the projected growth in the
labor force. This represents a slowing in their growth rate
from the 1979-86 period during which their population was
increasing rapidly due to the entry of refugees. This entry of
refugees has virtually stopped, and it is assumed not to occur
again over the projection period.
Labor force participation of the Asian and other group is
assumed to increase at the same rate as whites at the individ
ual age-sex level. Their participation rate is projected to be
lower than that of whites in 2000. This reflects their lower
participation in 1986. The lower rate of increase for their
overall labor force participation reflects the different age
and sex composition of this population group.
The Hispanic labor force is projected to increase 74 per
cent between 1986 and 2000; among the largest increases
projected for any group. By 2000, Hispanics are projected
to be 10 percent of the labor force, up from 7 percent in
1986. This increase results in 6 million more Hispanics
entering the labor force, for a total of 14 million in 2000.
Hispanic labor force participation, which increased 0.4
percent annually between 1979 and 1986, is projected to
continue to increase at that rate over the next 14 years. This
reflects the younger age of the Hispanic population— with
more young women, overall participation rises as their
participation is projected to rise. By contrast, whites and
blacks are projected to have slower rates of increase in
participation.
23
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
September 1987 •
Projections 2000: The Labor Force
Hispanics’ share of labor force growth was 22 percent
between 1979 and 1986. Given their more rapid population
growth, their share of the labor force increment between
1986 and 2000 is projected to be 29 percent. The size of the
share is more impressive by subperiod— 27 percent for the
years 1986 to 1995 and 32 percent for 1995 to 2000. More
than a third of population growth in the late 1990’s is pro
jected to be Hispanic. As noted earlier, the number of His
panics is affected by the assumption made regarding future
levels of immigration; projections of the share of Hispanics
in the labor force could vary considerably.
Sex. As in the past, women are projected to account for
more than 60 percent of the labor force growth. Over the
past 16 years, women have also made up 60 percent of the
additions to the labor force. This share is projected to be 64
percent between now and the end of the century. It may be
more useful to indicate that since 1979, when the babyboom generation had almost completed their entry into the
labor force, women accounted for 64 percent of labor force
additions. For the rest of this decade, and in the early
1990’s, women are projected also to make up 64 percent of
the net growth in the labor force. In the late 1990’s, as the
“echo” to the baby boom reaches labor force age and begins
entering the labor force, women’s share of growth is pro
jected to drop slightly to 62 percent.
These projections show 66 million women in the labor
force in 2000, up 13.2 million from 1986 (table 1). This
represents an annual rate of growth of 1.6 percent which is
below the 3.3-percent rate of the 1972-86 period, during
which young women of the baby boom were entering the
labor force. With the growth shown in these projections,
women would make up 47 percent of the labor force in
2000, up from 39 percent in 1972 and 45 percent in 1986.
Women’s labor force participation is projected to increase
by 0.8 percent annually— more than twice the overall rate of
increase in participation, but half the rate of growth in
women’s participation over the 1972-86 period. The pri
mary factor behind the slower rate of increase is the level of
labor force participation already achieved by women; future
increases above past rates are unlikely. The labor force
participation rate of women ages 25 to 54, at 70.8 percent
in 1986, is projected to reach 80.8 percent by 2000.
The labor force participation of black women has typi
cally been greater than that of white women, except at the
younger ages. This is projected to continue through 2000,
but the difference is expected to diminish significantly. In
1972, the participation rate of black women—48.8 per
cent— was 4.6 percentage points above that of white
women. By 2000, the difference would be 0.6 points. This
reflects the somewhat slower growth in participation by
black wom en and the greater num ber of young persons in
the black female population. Because younger black
women’s participation is lower than that of white women,
this also lowers the difference in participation.
Black women are projected to account for a tenth of labor
force growth over the 1986-2000 period; their projected
growth rate, 2.1 percent, is greater than that for white
women. (See table 5.) For black women, the higher growth
rate represents faster population growth as well as growing
participation. Thus, the proportion of the labor force made
up of black women would increase from 4.5 percent in 1972
to 6.1 percent in 2000.
Table 4. Total population, including armed forces overseas, by age, sex, and race, actual 1972, 1979, and 1986, and
projected to 2000
Level (In thousands)
Group
Change (In thousands)
Growth rate
1972
1979
1986
Projected,
2000
Total...................................................
209,896
225,055
241,596
268,264
15,159
16,541
26,668
1.0
1.0
0.8
Years of age:
0 to 4 ...................................................
5 to 13 .................................................
14 to 17 .................................................
18 to 24 .................................................
25 to 34 .................................................
17,101
39,936
16,640
26,077
27,623
16,063
35,592
16,611
30,048
36,203
18,128
34,193
14,796
27,973
42,984
16,898
33,483
15,332
25,231
37,149
-1,0 38
- 4,344
-2 9
3,971
8,580
2,065
-1,3 99
- 1,815
- 2,075
6,781
-1,2 30
-7 1 0
536
- 2,742
- 5,835
-.9
- 1.6
1.7
-.6
- 1 .6
- 1.0
2.5
- .5
- .1
.3
- .7
- 1.0
25,176
22,942
21,448
15,338
7,599
2,197
33,142
22,823
22,230
17,325
9,049
2,796
43,911
37,223
24,157
18,242
12,017
4,621
7,966
119
782
1,987
1,450
599
10,769
14,400
1,927
917
2,968
1,825
2.0
3.6
to 74 .................................................
to 84 .................................................
and over ..................................
22,859
23,687
19,211
12,922
6,555
1,542
Men...............................................
Women ..........................................
102,591
107,305
109,584
115,472
117,820
123,776
131,185
137,072
6,993
8,167
8,236
8,304
13,365
13,296
1.1
White.............................................
Black.............................................
Asian and other2 ..............................
183,326
23,646
2,924
194,098
26,417
4,540
204,671
29,427
7,498
221,512
35,122
11,630
10,772
2,771
1,616
10,573
3,010
2,958
16,841
5,695
4,132
.8
.8
.6
1.6
6.5
1.6
7.4
1.3
3.2
35
45
to 44
to 54
.................................................
.................................................
55 to 64 .................................................
65
75
85
1The rate is -0.05 to 0.05.
2The “Asian and other" group includes American Indians, Alaskan Natives, Asians, and Pacific
Islanders.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Census. For 1972 and 1979 data, Preliminary Estimates of the
24
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1972-79
1979-86
1986-2000
1972-79
1979-86
1986-2000
2,317
745
2,237
2,416
1,044
655
-
-
0)
2.0
3.9
1.4
4.0
- .5
-.1
1.6
2.5
2.1
5.2
1.8
.6
.4
2.5
3.5
2.0
3.7
1.0
1.0
.7
.9
.5
.8
Population of the United States, by Age, Sex, and Race: 1970 to 1981, Current Population Re
ports, Series P-25, No. 917; for 1986 data, Estimates of the Population of the United States, by
Age, Sex, and Race: 1980 to 1986, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 1000: and for
2000 data, Projections of the Population of the United States, by Age, Sex, and Race 1987 to2080,
Series No. 1018.
Table 5. Civilian labor force and participation rates by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, actual 1972, 1979, and 1986, and
moderate growth projections 2000
1972
1979
1986
2000
Growth rate
Percent change
Projected
Actual
Projected
Actual
Group
Change (in thousands)
Level (in thousands)
Participation rate
1972
1979
1986
2000
1972-86
1986-2000
1972-86
1986-2000
1972-86
1986-2000
Total, 16 and o v e r...............
60.4
63.7
65.3
67.8
87,037
104,960
117,837
138,775
30,800
20,938
35.4
17.8
2.2
1.2
Men, 16 and o v e r........................
-16 to 19 ..................................
20 to 2 4 ..................................
-25 to 3 4 ..................................
79.0
58.1
83.9
95.7
77.8
61.5
86.4
95.3
76.3
56.4
85.8
94.6
74.7
60.2
87.5
93.6
53,556
4,478
6,765
12,349
60,727
5,111
8,534
16,386
65,423
4,102
8,149
19,383
73,136
4,501
7,005
16,559
11,867
-3 7 6
1,384
7,034
7,713
399
- 1,144
- 2,824
22.2
- 8 .4
20.5
57.0
11.8
9.7
- 14.0
- 14.6
1.4
- .6
1.3
3.3
.8
.7
-1 .1
-1 .1
35 to 4 4 ..................................
45 to 54 ..................................
-55 to 64 ..................................
65 and over ............................
96.4
93.2
80.4
24.3
95.7
91.4
72.8
19.9
94.8
91.0
67.3
16.0
93.9
90.1
63.2
9.9
10,372
10,412
7,155
2,025
11,532
10,008
7,213
1,943
15,029
9,994
6,954
1,812
20,133
16,332
7,238
1,368
4,657
-4 1 8
-201
-2 1 3
5,104
6,338
284
-4 4 4
44.9
-4 .0
-2 .8
-1 0 .5
34.0
63.4
4.1
-2 4 .5
-
2.7
.3
.2
.8
2.1
3.6
.3
- 2 .0
Women, 16 and o v e r .................
16 to 19 ..................................
20 to 24 ..................................
25 to 34 ..................................
43.9
45.8
59.1
47.8
50.9
54.2
69.0
63.9
55.3
52.9
72.4
71.6
61.5
59.2
78.4
82.3
33,481
3,578
5,365
6,609
44,233
4,527
7,233
11,550
52,414
3,824
7,293
15,209
65,639
4,379
6,746
15,098
18,933
246
1,928
8,600
13,225
555
-5 4 7
- 111
56.5
6.9
35.9
130.1
25.2
14.5
- 7 .5
- .7
3.3
.5
2.2
6.1
-
35 to 44 ..................................
45 to 5 4 ..................................
55 to 6 4 ..................................
- 65 and over ............................
52.0
53.9
42.1
9.3
63.6
58.4
41.7
8.3
73.1
65.9
42.3
7.4
84.2
75.4
45.8
5.4
6,028
6,555
4,257
1,089
8,153
6,891
4,718
1,161
12,204
7,746
4,940
1,198
18,438
14,220
5,732
1,026
6,176
1,191
683
109
6,234
6,474
792
-1 7 2
102.5
18.2
16.0
10.0
51.1
83.6
16.0
- 14.4
5.2
1.2
1.1
'.7
3.0
4.4
1.1
- 1.1
Whites, 16 and o v e r...................
M e n .........................................
Women ..................................
60.4
79.6
43.2
63.9
78.6
50.5
65.5
76.9
55.0
68.2
75.3
61.5
77,275
48,118
29,157
91,922
53,857
38,065
101,801
57,216
44,585
116,701
62,252
54,449
24,526
9,098
15,428
14,900
5,036
9,864
31.7
18.9
52.9
14.6
8.8
22.1
2.0
1.2
3.1
1.0
.6
1.4
Blacks, 16 and o v e r ...................
M e n .........................................
Women ..................................
60.2
73.9
48.8
61.4
71.6
53.2
63.5
71.2
57.2
66.0
70.7
62.1
8,748
4,855
3,893
10,665
5,556
5,109
12,684
6,373
6,311
16,334
7,926
8,408
3,936
1,518
2,418
3,650
1,553
2,097
45.0
31.3
62.1
28.8
24.4
33.2
2.7
2.0
3.5
1.8
1.6
2.1
Asian and other,1 16 and over ..
M e n .........................................
Women ..................................
65.9
76.7
56.0
64.9
74.9
55.9
65.8
72.4
60.1
3,352
1,834
1,518
5,740
2,958
2,782
-
2,388
1,124
1,264
-
-
2,373
1,314
1,059
-
_
-
71.2
61.3
83.3
Hispanics,2 16 and o v e r.............
_
63.5
81.2
47.4
65.4
81.0
50.1
68.7
80.4
56.9
-
5,215
3,182
2,033
8,076
4,948
3,128
14,086
8,303
5,783
-
6,010
3,355
2,655
-
M e n .........................................
Women ..........................
_
-
-
-
-
-
1The “Asian and other” group includes American Indians, Alaskan Natives, Asians, and Pacific
Islanders. The historic data are derived by subtracting “Black” from the “Black and other" group;
projections are made directly.
White women (including most of the Hispanic women),
who accounted for half the labor force growth during the
1972-86 period, are projected to account for less than half
of the projected labor force increase over the next 14 years.
Their participation rate, which grew by 12 percentage points
between 1972 and 1986, is projected to grow more slowly
to the year 2000. During both periods, this was a greater
increase than for black women, but by 2000, black women
are projected to still have slightly greater participation.
The labor force of Hispanic women is projected to in
crease by 2.7 million to 5.8 million in 2000, an 85-percent
increase. Numerically, this growth is projected to exceed
that of black women, even though the female Hispanic labor
force would still be smaller than that of black women. The
growth reflects both population and participation rate
increases.
Men have been and are projected to be a majority of the
labor force; even though the number of men in the labor
force is not changing as dynamically as that of women, it
still is changing. It is projected to grow more slowly, by 7.7
million, or 12 percent, during the 1986-2000 period (this
compares with 25 percent for women during the same pe
riod). Different components of the labor force are growing
at different rates; both the older and younger male labor
force are projected to drop in size between 1986 and 2000,
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-
-
-
“
74.4
67.8
84.9
-
“
1.6
1.0
.6
.1
3.9
3.5
4.5
4.1
3.8
4.5
2 Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race. Labor force data for Hispanics are not available
before 1976.
Note: Dash indicates data not available.
but both groups are projected to actually increase between
1995 and 2000.
The change in the size of the young male labor force
represents the interplay of population dynamics— the echo
of the baby boom and projected participation rate increases.
The participation of young men is projected to increase
modestly over the entire projection period. However, be
tween 1986 and 1995, the number of young men is projected
to drop by 1.1 percent yearly, more than offsetting the
anticipated rise in participation. By 1995, however, the
number of younger groups is projected to increase, and with
an increase in participation rates, the number of those in the
labor force would then rise.
The change in the number of the older men in the labor
force also represents the interplay of population and partic
ipation. The 55 to 65 age group, whose population is pro
jected to decrease over the 1986-95 period, is projected to
grow more rapidly than the 65 and older group during the
1995-2000 period. Because the younger group has a higher
participation rate and their participation is projected to drop
more slowly than that of men over age 65, the entire older
male labor force is projected to grow over the 1995-2000
period. However, this growth would not be enough to offset
the earlier drop; over the 1986-2000 period, the older male
labor force is projected to decline by 160,000.
25
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
September 1987 •
Projections 2000: The Labor Force
Over the 1986-2000 period, the fastest growing group
among men would be ages 45 to 54, the consequence of the
aging of the baby-boom generation. This group is above the
age of peak participation, but, because baby-boom men
would still be in their prime working years in 2000, the
prime age male labor force is projected to be a greater
proportion of the labor force than in 1986, 1972, or 1979.
The labor force of men ages 45 to 54 is projected to grow
6.3 million, and constitute 30 percent of the 1986-2000
labor force increment.
The labor force of black men is projected to grow more
rapidly than the overall labor force (1.6 percent annually,
compared with 1.2 percent), despite falling participation.
This reflects their higher population growth rates. The num
ber of white men in the labor force (including most Hispanics) is projected to grow at only half the rate of the overall
labor force. Despite this, white men are projected to account
for a quarter of labor force growth and are projected to be
45 percent of the 2000 labor force.
The number of Hispanic men in the labor force is pro
jected to increase by 3.4 million between 1986 and 2000, a
greater absolute change than for black men. Their growth
rate would be three times that of the overall labor force and
more than twice that of black men. By 2000, there are
projected to be more Hispanic than black men in the labor
force. Hispanic men would make up 6 percent of the 2000
labor force and 16 percent of the labor force growth over the
rest of the century. Despite this increase, their participation
is anticipated to drop slightly.
Alternative scenarios
The actual world of work in 2000 will certainly be differ
ent from that in 1986 in ways that we cannot anticipate. To
give an idea of at least some of the uncertainty, two alterna
tive projections of the labor force were prepared. (See table
6.) One assumes slower participation rate changes which is
applied to the middle population series, and the other as
sumes a higher immigration rate and uses the middle partic
ipation rate series.
Under the low alternative, the overall 2000 labor force
would be 135 million, an expansion of 14 percent over the
1986 level. This slow growth, 1.0 percent annually, is a
consequence of the participation rate growing slowly or
dropping rapidly. In the middle scenario, overall participa
tion is projected to increase 0.3 percent annually. Under this
scenario, it would drop at the same rate.
Also under the low alternative, labor force participation
among women is projected to rise more slowly. This is
consistent with the view that the rapid increases of the
1970’s completed their increase in participation. The rapid
rise of the past 2 years would be a cyclical response to the
recession of the early 1980’s— not a resumption of the high
growth of the early and middle 1970’s.
Using the participation rates of the middle scenario with
the Census Bureau’s high migration series, we find that the
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labor force increases to 141 million in 2000— 2 million
greater than the middle scenario. The only difference be
tween the middle and the high migration population projec
tions is in the net migration assumption. Despite the higher
level of immigration, 160 percent greater, the resulting
growth rate of the labor force is only 0.2 percent higher.
For the high migration scenario, it was assumed that
Hispanics would be the same proportion of the civilian noninstititional population in any new projection as they had
been in the previous high migration projection. Under this
assumption, this Hispanic labor force would grow at the
same rate under both the middle and high scenarios and the
Hispanic labor force would be the same share under both
scenarios. Under the low participation scenario, Hispanics
would initially account for 9.4 percent of the labor force and
that share would grow by 3.3 percent yearly to 2000, com
pared with the 4.1-percent gain attained in the middle and
high scenarios.
This analysis suggests that Asians and others are a more
significant source of labor force growth in the high migra
tion scenario; their share of the labor force would be the
same under all three scenarios, but the growth rate is much
higher under the high migration scenario—4.4 percent,
compared with 3.9 percent in the middle growth scenario,
and 3.7 percent in the low scenario.
Other insights
The median age of the labor force in the post-World War
II era peaked in 1962, at 40.6 years. With the entry of the
baby-boom generation into the labor force, the median age
dropped, reaching a low in 1980 of 34.6 years. By 1986, the
median age had risen to 35.3 years, an increase of less than
1 year. The median age of the labor force is projected to
reach 38.9 years in 2000, 3.6 years above the 1986 level.
Even though the age of the population is increasing rapidly,
unless older workers remain in the labor force in greater
numbers, the 1962 median is not likely to be attained again.
As the population ages, more would be in the ages which
had— and are projected to continue to have— declining
labor force participation. Table 7 shows median ages of the
labor force by race and Hispanic origin, for selected histor
ical years and for projected years.
To reinforce the point about older workers, persons ages
55 and older constituted 16.7 percent of the labor force in
1972. With the entry of the baby-boom generation (and the
continuing drop in participation of older men), workers 55
and over made up only 14.3 percent in 1979. In 1986, after
the baby-boom generation had completed their entry, the
older group was only 12.6 percent of the labor force.
Share of labor force growth
If we consider the components of labor force growth,
starting in a year for which we have data for all groups,
shares of labor force growth for 1976-86 can be compared
with the projected share for 1986-2000. Women are pro-
Table 6. Three scenarios of the civilian labor force by
sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, projections 2000
Level
(in thousands)
Participation rate
Group
High
Moderate
Low
High
Moderate
Low
T o ta l.......................
68.0
67.8
65.7
141,107
138,775
134,517
Men:
16 to 24 years ...........
25 to 54 years ...........
55 years and o ve r. . . .
74.8
74.4
92.6
34.2
74.7
74.3
92.6
34.1
73.2
72.7
90.9
33.4
74,464
11,811
54,009
8,644
73,136
11,506
53,024
8,606
71,729
11,261
52,043
8,425
Women:
16 to 24 years ...........
25 to 54 years ...........
55 years and o v e r___
61.7
69.6
80.8
21.4
61.5
69.5
80.8
21.4
58.8
68.1
76.2
21.8
66,643
11,365
48,487
6,791
65,639
11,125
47,756
6,758
62,788
10,898
45,007
6,883
W hite..............................
B la ck..............................
Asian and other1 ...........
68.4
66.1
66.0
68.2
66.0
65.8
65.9
64.8
63.9
118,474
16,518
6,115
116,701
16,334
5,740
112,918
16,031
5,568
Hispanic2 .......................
68.8
68.7
61.9
14,122
14,086
12,675
1 The “Asian and other" group includes American Indians, Alaskan Natives, Asians, and
Pacific Islanders.
2 Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race.
jected to account for about the same share of labor force
growth as they have in the past. The white share of labor
force growth is projected to drop. The black, the Asian and
other, and the Hispanic shares are each projected to in
crease, with the Hispanic share increasing the most. These
calculations show that Hispanics, most of whom are white,
are sustaining the white share of growth.9 The non-Hispanic
white share (43 percent) is projected to be 18 percentage
points less than the 1976-86 share; however, the overall
white share is projected to fall only by 7 percentage points.
These projections show that non-Hispanic white men, who
accounted for 18 percent o f labor force growth from 1976
to 1986 when the baby-boom generation was completing its
entry into the labor force, would drop to 8 percent of the
1986-2000 increase. This reflects the fact that most nonHispanic white men are already in the labor force and a
slight drop in the participation of older white men. The
following tabulation shows the percentage distribution of
the labor force by sex, race, and Hispanic origin, and by
residency status, 1976-86, and projected, 1986-2000:
Over the 1972-86 period, the white female labor force of
prime working age grew by 12.2 million and that of their
white counterparts, by 9.0 million, the second greatest in
crease. White persons of prime age are projected to have the
greatest increment to the 1982-2000 labor force, with the
number of women increasing by 9.8 million and men, 6.3
million. Because of the birth dearth, the number of younger
white men in the labor force is projected to drop. Because
of continuing decreases in participation, the number of older
white men in the labor force is also expected to drop. These
decreases in the number of younger and older white men
offset the prime age white male growth in the labor force.
One further refinement indicates that the number of nonHispanic prime age white men would increase by 4.9 mil
lion or 23.4 percent of the 1986-2000 labor force growth.
Over the 1986-2000 period, net migration accounts for
almost a fourth of labor force growth. Somewhat more men
than women immigrants would join the labor force— the
23.4-percent net migration would be divided into 12.8 per
cent for men versus 10.6 for women. As the following
tabulations shows, most migration is projected to be by
whites, with Asians and others having a greater share than
blacks (because the migration scenario used for Hispanics is
not consistent with that for the main projection, it is not
possible to provide a projection of the Hispanic share of
labor force growth due to net migration):
M ig ra n t
T o t a l .............................................................
R e sid en t
2 3 .4
7 6 .6
...................................................................
1 2 .8
2 4 .0
W o m e n .............................................................
1 0 .6
5 2 .6
W h ite
B la c k
................................................................
................................................................
1 4 .4
2 .3
5 6 .8
1 5 .1
A s ia n an d o t h e r ..........................................
6 .7
4 .7
M en
Dependency ratio. With the baby-boom generation in
their prime working years and with the small number of
births projected between 1986 and 2000, persons who are
working are expected to exceed those who do not:
E c o n o m ic d e p en d en cy ra tio (b y a g e )
T o ta l
U n d er
16
1 6 -6 4
A g e 65
and over
G ro u p
1 9 7 6 -8 6
1 9 8 6 -2 0 0 0
1 9 7 2 .......................
1 3 4 .6
6 2 .3
5 4 .1
1 8 .2
........................................................
3 8 .0
3 6 .8
1 9 7 9 ......................
1 1 0 .2
5 2 .0
3 7 .6
2 0 .6
W o m e n ..................................................
6 2 .0
6 3 .2
1 9 8 6 ......................
1 0 1 .2
4 6 .5
3 2 .9
2 1 .8
1 9 9 5 ......................
9 4 .2
4 4 .0
2 7 .0
2 3 .2
8 9 .8
4 0 .8
2 6 .0
2 3 .0
M en
W h ite
.....................................................
7 8 .6
7 1 .2
2 0 0 0 .......................
B la c k
.....................................................
1 4 .5
1 7 .4
A s ia n an d o t h e r ...............................
6 .9
1 1 .4
H i s p a n i c ................................................
1 7 .5
2 8 .7
N o n -H is p a n ic w h i t e ......................
6 1 .6
4 3 .3
The economic dependency ratio is the number of those in
the total population (including Armed Forces overseas) who
are not in the total labor force per 100 persons in the total
labor force. This ratio declined steadily over the 1972-86
period as the baby-boom generation entered the labor force.
The largest component of the dependency ratio is made up
of persons under age 16. However, this ratio has been drop
ping and is expected to continue to do so throughout the
..................................................
18.1
8 .5
W o m e n .............................................
4 3 .5
3 4 .8
-
7 6 .6
M en
R e s id e n ts
.......................................
N e t m ig r a n ts
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...............................
—
2 3 .4
27
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
September 1987 •
Projections 2000: The Labor Force
Table 7. Median ages of the labor force, by sex, race, and
Hispanic origin, selected historical years and projected
years, 1995 and 2000
Historical
Projected
Group
Total ...........................................
M e n ..............................
Women .........................................
W h ite .........................................
Black .........................................
Aslan and others ............................
Hispanic.........................................
1962
1972
1979
1986
1995
2000
40.5
40.5
40.4
40.9
38.3
37.7
38.1
37.0
38.0
35.4
34.7
35.3
33.9
34.9
33.5
35.3
35.6
34.9
35.5
33.8
35.5
32.6
37.6
37.9
37.1
37.9
36.1
37.2
34.1
38.9
39.3
38.6
39.2
37.2
38.0
35.1
-
-
-
-
-
32.2
Note: Dash indicates data not available.
entire projection period. With the rising participation of
women, the component of the dependency ratio attributed to
those ages 16 to 64 has also declined steadily. The change
between 1995 and 2000 is modest, reflecting slightly lower
participation rates of the largest age group of men, those 45
to 54. The dependency ratio for all persons over 65 has been
rising over the entire historical period, a trend projected to
continue. The slight drop between 1995 and 2000 reflects
the aging of the smaller birth cohort of the 1930’s.
Employment-population ratio. With the rise in participa
tion, the employment-population ratio is projected to rise. It
has been growing over the last 14 years; like overall labor
force participation, the rate of increase is projected to
slow:10
E m p lo y m e n t-p o p u la tio n r a t i o ____
197 2
1979
1986
2000
5 7 .0
5 9 .9
6 0 .7
6 3 .7
Keeping in mind the 14-year span of the projections, we
can look at 15-year cohorts— those 15 to 29, 30 to 44, 45 to
59, and 60 to 74. Each cohort in the labor force will be in
the next older group by the end of each of the time intervals
discussed here:
Y ea r o f b irth
group in the United States were joined by migrants from
Europe at a level exceeding the immigration of the 1980’s.
By 1986, the group bom during the 1910-24 period were 6
percent of the labor force and virtually all are projected to
be out of the labor force in 2000. Those bom during the
1925-39 period could be described as part of the 1930’s
birth dearth. Although in their prime working-age years in
1972, they made up less than a third of the work force; this
share dropped to a fifth by 1986. As they retire, their share
drops to less than 5 percent by 2000. Those bom during
1940-55 are considered pre- and early baby-boom genera
tion. They also were more than a third of the labor force
when they entered the labor force (in 1972). Like the
younger edge of the baby-boom generation, their share grew
by 1986. However, as they continue to age, their share is
projected to drop and in 2000, they are projected to make up
less than a third of the labor force. Those bom during the
1955-69 period entered the labor force between 1972 and
1986. Once this entry was complete, they accounted for
more than a third of the labor force. They may be considered
the last part of the baby-boom generation. Their labor force
share is projected to increase between now and 2000 as the
women in this group continue entering the labor force and
as younger smaller cohorts reach working age.
Where are they now?
These changes projected in the labor force by age suggest
that it would be interesting to look at some of the major
cohorts of the past. Four groups are nominated: the birth
dearth of the 1930’s, the baby boom of the late 1940’s,
1950’s, and early 1960’s, the birth dearth of the late 1960’s
and early 1970’s, and the echo group of the late 1970’s and
the 1980’s. The following tabulation illustrates the passage
of these groups through the labor force:
P ercent o f
la b o r f o r c e
1972
L a b o r f o r c e sh a re
1972
1986
2000
1 9 3 0 ’s d earth . . . .
B aby b oom
1 9 5 5 - 6 9 .................................
1 9 4 0 - 5 4 .................................
3 4 .9
3 9 .9
3 7 .4
2 8 .3
1 9 2 5 - 3 9 ................................. .........................
1 9 1 0 - 2 4 ................................. .........................
2 8 .6
2 1 .2
4 .5
2 7 .2
6 .2
0 .3
1 8 9 5 - 1 9 0 9 .............................. .........................
8 .4
0 .3
-
T h e c o m b i n a t i o n o f c o h o r t s i z e a n d s t a g e in t h e l i f e c y c l e
explain the share of labor force. When a cohort is large, but
is at a stage in life when participation is low, such as when
entering or leaving the labor force, their share will be small.
Those bom during 1895-1909 were in the retirement years
in 1972, but still accounted for 8.4 percent of the labor force
in that year. Those bom 1910-24 who entered the labor
force in the late 1920’s and 1930’s, were still almost the
same share of the labor force in 1972 as the next generation,
despite being in the preretirement years. Those bom into this
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1 8 .8
.................
1 9 7 0 ’s d earth . . . .
E c h o ............................
-
1986
G ro w th ra te
(p e r c e n t)
2000
1 9 7 2 -8 6
1 9 8 6 -2 0 0 0
1 5 .1
1 .7
.6
5 5 .5
4 9 .8
-
- 1 3 .3
0 .4
6 .7
-
2 2 .8
n .2
-
1 0 .4
The persons in the 1930’s birthrdearth group are now in
their preretirement years and are projected to be in their late
sixties by 2000. The number of these persons in the labor
force is projected to plunge in the next 14 years. Their share
of the labor force— small in 1986 because of the size of the
baby boom— is projected to diminish to near zero by 2000.
The baby-boom generation, more than half of the labor force
now, will begin shrinking as a share of the labor force as
they move towards the years when some may be taking early
retirement. Their 2000 labor force is projected to be slightly
larger than now— although a smaller percent. The persons
in the 1970’s birth dearth group are in their teens and their
share of labor force is projected to grow as they begin
working; despite their relatively small size, they are ex
pected to represent a fifth of the labor force in 2000. Not all
the echo to the baby-boom group has been bom as of 1986;
in 2000, they are projected to still be entering the labor
force, of which they are projected to make up just over a
tenth.
O
-FOOTNOTES1 The Asian and other race group consists of American Indians, Native
Alaskans, Asians, and Pacific Islanders.
2 These projections replace those described by Howard N Fullerton, Jr.
in “The 1995 labor force: b l s ’ s latest projections,” Monthly Labor Review,
November 1985, pp. 17-26; and Howard N Fullerton, Jr. and John Tschetter, “The 1995 labor force: a second look,” Monthly Labor Review,
November 1983, pp. 3 -1 0 .
3 Projections of the Population of the United States by Age, Sex and
Race: 1987 to 2080, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 1018
(Bureau o f Census, forthcoming).
4 For the most recent evaluation of bls labor force projections, see
Howard N Fullerton, Jr., “How accurate were the 1980 labor force projec
tions?” Monthly Labor Review, July 1982, pp. 15-21. An evaluation of the
labor force projections to 1985 is in progress. For a description of b l s ’ s
current projection methodology, see Employment Projections for 1995:
Data and Methods, Bulletin 2253 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1986).
5 Hispanics may be of any race; their population and labor force numbers
are also included in those for whites, blacks, and Asians and others.
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6 Gregory Spencer, Projections of the Hispanic Population, 1983 to
2080, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 995 (Bureau o f Cen
sus, 1986).
7 A cohort is a group experiencing the same event during the same time
period— for example, immigrants to the United States during the 1960-64
period or those bom 1930-34. In this article, only birth cohorts are dis
cussed.
8 See the following articles in the Monthly Labor Review, September
1987: Ronald E. Kutscher, “Overview and implications of the projections
to 2000,” pp. 3 -9; Norman C. Saunders, “Economic projections to the year
2000,” pp. 10-18; Valerie A. Personick, “Industry output and employment
through the end of the century,” pp. 30-45; and George T. Silvestri and
John M. Lukasiewicz, “A look at occupational employment trends to the
year 2000,” pp. 4 6 -6 3 .
9 For the purpose of deriving the share of non-Hispanic whites, it is
assumed that 97 percent of Hispanics are white.
10 The employment for 2000 is projected to be 130.4 million, with an
unemployment rate of 6.0 percent. See Norman C. Saunders, “Economic
projections,” pp. 10-18.
A note on communications
The Monthly Labor Review welcomes communications that supplement,
challenge, or expand on research published in its pages. To be considered
for publication, communications should be factual and analytical, not
polemical in tone. Communications should be addressed to the Editor-inChief, Monthly Labor Review, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Depart
ment of Labor, Washington, d c 20212.
29
Projections 2000
Industry output and employment
through the end of the century
Service-producing industries add more than
20 million jobs; employment in manufacturing
declines , but the output share o f the Nation’s
factories is projected to hold steady
V a l e r ie
A.
P e r s o n ic k
More than 21 million new jobs are projected to be added to
the U.S. economy between 1986 and the year 2000, bring
ing total employment to just over 133 million. Many indus
tries are projected to share in this expansion and enjoy
strong job growth, but several, especially some in manufac
turing, are not. This article describes the trends of industry
output and job growth projected by the Bureau of Labor
Statistics for the remainder of the 20th century.
The 21 million new jobs translate into an increase of 19.2
percent over the projection period, or annual growth of 1.3
percent. This compares to annual rates of job growth of 2.6
percent over the 1972-79 period, and 1.4 percent over the
1979-86 period. Thus, projected employment increases are
expected to occur at a slower pace than in the past.
Three projections of employment were prepared— a mod
erate, a low, and a high. This article focuses on the moder
ate growth scenario. The demographic and economic
assumptions of this scenario are described in detail in com
panion articles by Howard N Fullerton, Jr., and Norman C.
Saunders, on pp. 10-29 of this issue. Some of the key trends
which especially affect the industry projections are:
• A continued slowdown in labor force growth following
the 1970’s surge, during which the baby-boom genera
tion entered the work force and women’s labor force
participation rose dramatically;
• Average growth of 2.4 percent a year in real gross na
tional product ( g n p ) between 1986 and 2000, and unem
ployment tapering from a 7.0-percent rate in 1986 to 6.0
percent by 2000;
Valerie A. Personick is an economist in the Office of Economic Growth
and Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
30
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• Higher productivity growth, especially in manufacturing,
which allows production to expand without correspond
ing job gains;
• Improvements in the Nation’s international trade balance,
as the exchange value of the dollar is projected to return
to a level more consistent with long-term relationships;
imports will continue to make inroads in some key sec
tors, but the export market, especially for U.S. capital
goods, should expand faster;
• Defense spending growing in real terms, at least through
1990, because of projects already approved, but begin
ning a modest decline after that.
Goods versus services
The 133 million jobs in the year 2000 will be even more
concentrated in service-producing sectors than are jobs
today, because virtually all of the net increase of 21 million
jobs are in the service-producing sector; although some
goods-producing industries are projected to grow, others are
projected to decline, with a net employment change of zero.
As table 1 shows, 119 million of the 133 million total jobs
are expected to be nonfarm wage and salary jobs, or payroll
employment. The rest are in nonfarm self-employment and
unpaid family work, 9.7 million; private household work,
1.2 million; and agriculture (both payroll and selfemployed), 2.9 million. Of the nonfarm wage and salary
jobs, 3 out of 4 were in service-producing industries in
1986; by the year 2000, almost 4 out of 5 are projected to
be. The goods-producing sector, in contrast, is expected to
show virtually no net change, as declines in manufacturing
and mining just offset projected increases in construction.
Manufacturing employment is projected to fall from 19 mil
lion in 1986 to 18.2 million by 2000.
The structural drop in total factory jobs has been occur
ring since 1979, and for many individual manufacturing
industries, the decline started much earlier. In 1979, manu
facturing employment peaked at just over 21 million jobs,
but over the 1980 and 1981-82 recessions, about 2.8 mil
lion of those jobs were lost. Since the trough of the last
recession in November 1982, employment in manufacturing
has made a partial comeback, but new economic conditions
have suppressed full recovery. The high value of the dollar
compared to foreign currencies, for example, resulted in
unprecedented levels of merchandise imports into the
United States, and domestic firms tended to find that their
long-established cost structures prevented them from com
peting with these cheaper imports. Many firms engaged in
cost-cutting and restructuring, closing some older plants and
streamlining others. This restructuring and cost-cutting,
along with other factors such as contracting out, technolog
ical advances, new capital investment, and energy substitu
tion, to name a few, pushed productivity gains in manufac
turing to a brisk 3.4-percent pace between 1983 and 1986,
compared to 2.3 percent in the 1970’s. Output reached
record high levels in 1986.
The projections of manufacturing employment incorpo
rate a continued restructuring, but the rate of job contraction
is expected to slow in the future. The average annual rate of
decline in factory jobs was —1.4 percent during the years
1979-86; the 1986-2000 projected rate is just -0 .3 percent.
In contrast to jobs, factory output is projected to show
very strong growth during the 1986-2000 period. At 2.3
percent a year, it is expected to be only slightly below the
rate of increase in total g n p . Demand for U.S. manufactured
products is projected to be high for a number of reasons.
First, exports are projected to recover some of their markets
as the value of the dollar continues to fall, with the rate of
growth exceeding that projected for imports. Second, do
mestic demand for capital goods is expected to be robust as
low real interest rates spur investment. Finally, already
scheduled defense expenditures for communications equip
ment, missiles, and aircraft should stimulate those sectors
for several years to come. As a result of these factors,
manufacturing production, especially of durable goods, is
projected to hold a steady 33-percent share of total output
through the next decade. Manufacturing jobs, by compari
son, are projected to drop from 19 percent of total payroll
employment in 1986 to 15 percent by 2000.
Industry output and employment trends
Agriculture. Agricultural production is projected to re
cover from its 1983-86 slump as the declining dollar stimu
lates a modest recovery of agricultural exports. However, it
is not expected that U.S. exports can regain the world dom
inance they once enjoyed. This is because several former
customer nations have not only achieved self-sufficiency but
have in fact become net exporters of the agricultural prod
ucts they once imported.
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One portion of the agricultural sector— the agricultural
services, forestry, and fishery products industry— has been
posting very rapid growth and is projected to continue to do
so. Employment in this industry has been growing, in con
trast to long-term steady declines in farm production jobs.
About 245,000 new jobs are projected to be added in agri
cultural services between 1986 and 2000, compared to losses
of 585,000 in crop and livestock production. Most of the gains
in agricultural services are in landscaping and horticultural
services (such as lawn services). Thus, even within the agricul
tural sector, the shift to services is inexorable.
The overall decline in total agricultural jobs from 1972 to
1986 occurred entirely among the self-employed and unpaid
family workers. In contrast, wage and salary farm jobs have
actually increased, and are expected to continue to do so, as
the following tabulation shows:
C h an ge in em p lo ym en t
(th o u sa n d s)
T o ta l a g ricu ltu r e
......................
1 9 7 2 -8 6
1 9 8 6 -2 0 0 0
-2 6 6
-3 4 0
-6 1 9
353
-4 8 8
148
S e lf -e m p lo y e d and u n p a id
f a m ily j o b s .........................
W a g e an d salar y j o b s
...
This reflects the closure of many smaller, family-owned
farms, and the increasing concentration of farming opera
tions among fewer, larger producers.
Mining. The b l s projections for the mining sector incor
porate the latest energy assumptions for the year 2000 from
the U.S. Department of Energy.1In this scenario, imports of
crude petroleum rise enormously from present levels, re
flecting the assumption that the current worldwide oil glut
will be absorbed. Domestic production of crude oil is pro
jected to drop by almost one-fourth over the 1986-2000
period, while imports are projected to more than double.
Correspondingly, employment in crude oil production is
projected to fall even further below 1986’s depressed level,
but some of the recent job loss in exploration services is
expected to be made up by the year 2000 because of higher
oil prices in the 1990’s. Coal production is projected to grow
as an alternative energy source, but high productivity in this
industry results in the continued shrinking of employment.
(See table 6 for detailed projections of industry employment.)
Metal mining is not projected to recover any of the deep
cuts experienced in both output and employment since
1979. Demand for U.S. primary metals and, in turn, metal
mining activity were severely reduced in the 1980-82 reces
sions, and did not pick up again in the recovery period. In
1986, output of U.S. metal mines was less than threefourths of the 1979 level, and employment was only about
two-fifths. Further losses are projected, although at a much
slower rate. The primary metals manufacturing industries
are projected to either decline or to be among the slowest31
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
September 1987 •
Projections 2000: Industry Output and Employment
Construction employment is projected to rise by 890,000
between 1986 and 2000, to 5.8 million wage and salary
jobs. The rate of increase, 1.2 percent a year, is just slightly
below the projected total job growth in the economy.
growing of all the industries studied in the b l s projections.
As a result, production of U.S. metal mines is projected to
decline and another 14,000 jobs are projected to be lost.
Construction. The real value of new and maintenance
construction is projected to grow by 1.4 percent a year
between 1986 and 2000, slightly faster than long-term his
torical trends but slower than the 2.4-percent projected for
overall g n p growth. New construction is especially sensitive
to cyclical fluctuations, but demographic factors play a part
as well. Because of an expected slowdown in the rate of new
household formation in the 1990’s, residential construction
is projected to slow dramatically. A little growth is expected
for new single-family homes and for residential alterations
and additions, but this will be just about offset by declines
in new apartment and condominium construction and in
farm housing. Nonresidential construction is projected to
recover from the recent oversupply of office and commer
cial space, and will grow about 2.0 percent a year during the
1986-2000 period.
Table 1.
Manufacturing. Manufacturing is projected to lose
834,000 jobs by 2000, a rate of decline of —0.3 percent a
year. Output, in contrast, is projected to almost keep pace
with total g n p growth, averaging 2.3 percent a year. Heavy
investment in capital accumulation and the continued win
nowing out of less efficient operations, among other factors,
are expected to result in substantial productivity growth.
The following tabulation presents wage and salary employ
ment estimates (in thousands) for 1979 and 1986, and pro
jected to 2000:
1979
M a n u fa c tu r in g
1986
2000
....................................... 2 1 ,0 4 2
1 8 ,9 9 4
1 8 ,1 6 0
D u r a b l e s ............................................... 1 2 ,7 6 2
1 1 ,2 4 4
1 0 ,7 3 1
7 ,7 5 0
7 ,4 2 9
N o n d u r a b l e s .......................................
8 ,2 8 0
Employment by major sector, 1972, 1979, 1986, and projected to 2000
Employment (in thousands)
Change, 1986-2000
Projected, 2000
Sector
1979
1972
1986
Low
Moderate
High
Low
Moderate
High
Total .........................................................................
84,549
101,353
111,623
126,432
133,030
137,533
14,809
21,407
25,910
Nonfarm wage and salary1 ..................................
Goods-producing...............................................
M ining............................................................
Construction .................................................
Manufacturing ...............................................
Durable ......................................................
Nondurable ...............................................
73,514
23,668
628
3,889
19,151
11,050
8,101
89,481
26,463
958
4,463
21,042
12,762
8,280
99,044
24,681
783
4,904
18,994
11,244
7,750
113,554
23,148
672
5,643
16,833
9,654
7,179
119,156
24,678
724
5,794
18,160
10,731
7,429
123,013
25,906
779
6,077
19,050
11,193
7,857
14,510
-1,533
-111
739
-2,161
-1,590
-571
20,112
-3
-5 9
890
-834
-513
-321
23,969
1,225
-4
1,173
56
-51
107
Service-producing1 ...........................................
Transportation and public utilities.................
Wholesale trad e.............................................
Retail trade ...................................................
Finance, insurance, and real estate .............
Services1 ........................................................
Government...................................................
49,846
4,541
4,113
11,835
3,907
12,117
13,333
63,018
5,135
5,204
14,989
4,975
16,768
15,947
74,363
5,244
5,735
17,845
6,297
22,531
16,711
90,406
5,410
7,015
21,795
7,508
30,778
17,900
94,478
5,719
7,266
22,702
7,917
32,545
18,329
97,107
5,903
7,361
23,079
8,159
33,708
18,897
16,043
166
1,280
3,950
1,211
8,247
1,189
20,115
475
1,531
4,857
1,620
10,014
1,618
22,744
659
1,626
5,234
1,862
11,177
2,186
Agriculture ............................................................
Private households...............................................
Nonfarm self-employed and unpaid family workers
3,523
1,693
5,819
3,401
1,326
7,145
3,252
1,241
8,086
2,784
1,122
8,972
2,917
1,215
9,742
3,009
1,234
10,277
-478
-119
886
-335
-2 6
1,656
-253
-7
2,191
Percent distribution of wage and salary employment
Average annual rate of change (in percent)
Projected, 2000
1986-2000
1972-79
1972
1979-86
Low
Moderate
1979
1986
Low
High
Moderate
High
Total .........................................................................
2.6
1.4
0.9
1.3
1.5
_
—
_
_
—
—
Nonfarm wage and salary1 ..................................
Goods-producing...............................................
M ining............................................................
Construction .................................................
Manufacturing ...............................................
Durable .....................................................
Nondurable ...............................................
2.8
1.6
6.2
2.0
1.4
2.1
.3
1.5
-1.0
-2.8
1.4
-1.4
-1.8
- .9
1.0
- .5
-1.1
1.0
- .9
-1.1
- .5
1.3
.0
.6
1.2
.3
.3
.3
1.6
.3
.0
1.5
.0
.0
.1
100.0
32.2
.9
5.3
26.1
15.0
11.0
100.0
29.6
1.1
5.0
23.5
14.3
9.3
100.0
24.9
.8
5.0
19.2
11.4
7.8
100.0
20.4
.6
5.0
14.8
8.5
6.3
100.0
20.7
.6
4.9
15.2
9.0
6.2
100.0
21.1
.6
4.9
15.5
9.1
6.4
Service-producing1 ..........................................
Transportation and public utilities.................
Wholesale trad e.............................................
Retail trade ...................................................
Finance, insurance, and real estate .............
Services1 ........................................................
Government...................................................
3.4
1.8
3.4
3.4
3.5
4.8
2.6
2.4
.3
1.4
2.5
3.4
4.3
.7
1.4
.2
1.4
1.4
1.3
2.3
.5
1.7
.6
1.7
1.7
1.7
2.7
.7
1.9
.8
1.8
1.9
1.9
2.9
.9
67.8
6.2
5.6
16.1
5.3
16.5
18.1
70.4
5.7
5.8
16.8
5.6
18.7
17.8
75.1
5.3
5.8
18.0
6.4
22.7
16.9
79.6
4.8
6.2
19.2
6.6
27.1
15.8
79.3
4.8
6.1
19.1
6.6
27.3
15.4
78.9
4.8
6.0
18.8
6.6
27.4
15.4
Agriculture ............................................................
Private households...............................................
Nonfarm self-employed and unpaid family workers
- .5
-3.4
3.0
.6
.9
1.8
-1.1
- .7
.8
-
1 Excludes Standard Industrial Classifications 074,5,8 (agricultural services) and 99 (nondassifiable establishments). Therefore, the estimates are not exactly comparable with data pub-
32
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-
-
.8
.1
1.3
-
.6
.0
1.7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
Hshed in E m p lo ym e n t a n d E arnings.
—
—
—
Table 2. Distribution and growth of real domestic output
by major sector, 1972, 1979, 1986, and projected to 2000
Percent distribution
Sector
Projected, 2000
1972
1979
1986
Low
Moderate
High
found in the George T. Silvestri and John M. Lukasiewicz
article on occupational projections (pp. 46-63 of this issue),
but in general, manufacturing employment is expected to
shift away from production and assembly-line jobs toward
professional, managerial, and technical occupations:
P e r c e n t o f e m p lo ym en t
Total ..................................
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Goods-producing ...............
Mining...........................
Construction ..................
Manufacturing.................
Durable......................
Nondurable .................
48.3
4.8
7.9
35.6
18.0
17.6
46.5
4.0
6.9
35.6
18.3
17.3
43.5
3.3
6.8
33.4
17.0
16.4
41.0
2.4
5.7
33.0
17.6
15.3
41.5
2.3
6.0
33.2
17.9
15.3
42.1
2.3
6.5
33.2
17.8
15.4
Service-producing...............
Transportation and public
utilities.......................
Wholesale trade .............
Retail trade....................
Finance, insurance, and real
estate .......................
Services.......................
Government ..................
47.9
50.0
53.1
55.6
55.1
54.4
8.6
4.8
6.6
9.1
4.9
6.7
8.1
5.6
7.4
8.3
5.8
7.8
8.4
5.9
7.5
8.4
6.0
7.5
10.0
10.8
7.1
10.8
12.0
6.5
11.6
13.8
6.6
11.8
15.4
6.5
12.0
15.4
6.0
11.7
15.1
5.7
Agriculture .......................
Private households.............
3.6
.2
3.3
3.3
.1
3.3
.1
3.3
.1
3.4
.1
.
Average annual rate of change (in percent)
1986-2000
1972-79
1979-86
Low
Moderate
High
Total ...................................
2.9
1.6
1.6
2.4
3.0
Goods-producing .................
Mining............................
Construction ....................
Manufacturing..................
Durable.......................
Nondurable ..................
2.3
.3
1.0
2.9
3.1
2.6
.6
-1 .4
1.3
.6
.5
.8
1.0
- .9
.1
1.3
1.7
2.0
- .2
1.4
2.3
2.7
1.8
2.7
.4
2.6
2.9
3.3
2.5
Service-producing.................
Transportation and public
utilities.........................
Wholesale trade ...............
Retail trade......................
Finance, insurance, and real
estate .........................
Services .........................
3.5
2.4
1.8
2.6
3.1
3.6
3.1
3.2
.0
3.6
3.0
1.6
1.6
1.8
2.6
2.7
2.4
3.2
3.4
3.1
Government ..........................
4.1
4.4
1.7
2.5
3.6
1.8
1.6
2.3
1.2
2.6
3.2
1.5
3.0
3.7
1.8
Agriculture .........................
Private households...............
1.7
- 3 .7
1.4
3.0
1.5
.8
2.4
.2
3.3
.4
.9
-
Because most of the driving force behind the strong man
ufacturing output growth stems from investment in and ex
ports of capital equipment, output growth is projected to be
sharper for durable goods than for nondurables. Durable
manufacturing industries are projected to average produc
tion growth of 2.7 percent a year, while nondurables will
average 1.8 percent a year. In fact, of the 79 separate
durable manufacturing industries in the economic projec
tions system, only 5 are not expected to post any output
gains. The exceptions are railroad equipment and four of the
primary metals industries; all the other durable goods indus
tries are projected to expand. Similarly, productivity gains
are expected to be higher in durable goods industries, result
ing in a net decline of 513,000 jobs, compared with a drop
of 321,000 in nondurable manufacturing.
At the same time, it should be noted that the occupational
composition of the remaining 18.2 million manufacturing
jobs in 2000 is expected to change. More details can be
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D u ra b le s
N o n d u ra b le s
1986
2000
1986
2000
A ll m a n u fa c tu r in g o c c u p a tio n s . . .
M a n a g e r ia l, p r o fe s s io n a l,
1 0 0 .0
1 0 0 .0
1 0 0 .0
1 0 0 .0
t e c h n i c a l .......................................... .
....................
1 9 .9
2 3 .4
1 2 .8
1 4 .7
2 .2
2 .3
4 .1
4 .6
1 1 .3
1 0 .2
1 2 .6
1 2 .2
1 1 .0
1 1 .2
6 .6
6 .8
4 7 .3
4 4 .9
5 5 .5
5 3 .6
M a r k e tin g an d s a le s
A d m in is tr a tiv e su p p o rt,
c le r ic a l
............................................ .
P r e c isio n p r o d u c tio n
...................
O th e r p r o d u c tio n ty p e j o b s *
.. .
^ M ech anics, m achine operators, hand assem blers, m aterial m overs . laborers
In fact, although manufacturing in total is projected to drop
834,000 jobs, there will actually be an increase of 258,000
engineering, scientific, and technical positions and 85,000
more managerial jobs.
The shift is more pronounced in industries where imports
play a significant role. In some cases, design and engineer
ing are done domestically, but much of the actual assembly
is performed overseas. The product is then brought into this
country under the brand name of the domestic parent. In
these cases— electronic home entertainment equipment as
an example— the U.S. firm acts essentially as a design and
marketing agent.
Following is a discussion of the outlook for selected man
ufacturing industries. (See table 6 for the full output and
employment detail.)
Industrial machinery (except computers and office equip
ment). Despite some growth in 1984, 1985, and 1986,
virtually all of the heavy industrial machinery industries
have yet to regain 1979’s peak production levels. Many of
them rely on exports for a large share of their markets
(between 10 and 30 percent of output), and with the wide
disequilibrium in the price of the dollar in recent years,
exports fell and imports gained ground— considerable
ground in some industries. In addition, primary domestic
markets for some of the machinery manufacturers have been
depressed, particularly farming and mining.
Similarly, employment is still far below 1979’s levels.
About 500,000 fewer jobs were found in heavy machinery
industries in 1986 than in 1979, shrinking demand having
forced the closing of inefficient plants, complete restructur
ing of some industries, and the drastic streamlining of others.
The outlook for machinery, except electrical, is for a
recovery in production to new peak levels (except in a few
of the sectors), rapid productivity growth, and some job
gains— but not enough to even come close to 1979’s em
ployment levels.
33
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
September 1987 •
Projections 2000: Industry Output and Employment
This projection varies among the individual machinery
producers. General industrial machinery (pumps, compres
sors, industrial ovens, fans, general purpose robots, and so
forth) is projected to post 1.9-percent annual output growth
(somewhat slower than prerecession trends) and to add
about 13,000 jobs to 1986’s employment level of 255,000.
Exports rise above 1985 ’s depressed level but imports are
projected to increase their market share from about 22 per
cent in 1985 to more than 26 percent by 2000. (Imports are
calculated as a percent of the total value of output in con
stant 1982 dollars.) Miscellaneous nonelectric machinery
(which includes such items as pistons, valves, and carbure
tors) is projected to have 2.2-percent annual output growth,
which again is slower than past trends, and to add about
26.000 jobs to reach an employment level of 301,000 by
2000. Exports and imports are relatively small in this sector.
The employment level represents a new peak for the indus
try, because productivity growth is projected to be rather
low; the large number of small firms and the diversity of
products limit widespread automation. Metalworking ma
chinery is also characterized by low productivity growth
because of the many job shops in the industry, but sluggish
growth in domestic output (because of weak demand and
rising imports) causes employment in the b l s projections to
fall from 304,000 in 1986 to 281,000 by 2000.
Computers and office equipment. The computer manufac
turing industry has been one of the fastest growing U.S.
industries over the last 25 years and, despite rising imports,
it is one of the few manufacturing industries to show a
consistently large trade surplus. Job gains have been rapid
in the industry since the mid-1970’s, but since 1984, em
ployment levels have fallen as the growth of domestic output
slowed. The nature of work in this industry is uncharacteris
tic of manufacturing industries as a whole as reflected in its
high concentration of scientific personnel and its relatively
low concentration of production workers.2 More than
25 percent of employment in computer manufacturing con
sists of engineers, technicians, and systems analysts, while
production workers represent only 35 percent. For manufac
turing as a whole, production workers accounted for 68
percent of all jobs in 1986, although, as noted earlier, occu
pational shifts away from production-type occupations are
projected to occur.
Output growth for computers is expected to slow consid
erably over the next 14 years, although the industry is still
projected to be the fastest growing in the economy in terms
of output. The slowdown occurs as the industry matures and
its size makes it difficult to expand at past rates of growth;
future technological advances are not assumed to have the
same dramatic impact as the introduction of the minicom
puter or the microcomputer. However, demand is expected
to be buoyed by rapidly expanding purchases by private
consumers. Employment is projected to expand by about
85.000 jobs to 503,000 in 2000, with even more of a shift
from production to research and development occupations.
34
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Electrical and electronic equipment. The fastest growing
industries within this sector are projected to be semiconduc
tors and miscellaneous electronic components. Despite sig
nificant import growth, domestic production increases in
these industries will rank them among the top five of all
U.S. industries. Also enjoying rapid output growth of more
than 5 percent a year will be the X-ray and electromedical
apparatus industry, as demand for sophisticated health
equipment continues unabated. Defense demand will not
have as much of an impact on the communications equip
ment industry as in the past, but the slack is expected to be
taken up by increases in private investment purchases of
such items as satellites, fiber optics systems, broadcasting
equipment, and industrial laser systems.
The rapid production gains in these electrical equipment
industries are expected to lead to some job growth, but it is
almost totally offset by declines in other, related industries.
Overall employment in electrical equipment manufacturing
is projected to remain at 2.1 million jobs.
T a b le 3 .
P r o je c te d o u t p u t t r e n d s f o r s e le c te d in d u s t r ie s ,
1 9 8 6 -2 0 0 0
Fastest growing
Average
annual rate
of change
(percent)
Electronic computing equipment................................................................
Arrangement of passenger transportation .................................................
Semiconductors and related devices.........................................................
Miscellaneous electronic components.......................................................
Amusement and recreation services, n.e.c.................................................
X-ray and other electromedical apparatus.................................................
Optical and ophthalmic products................................................................
Child day care services .............................................................................
Computer and data processing services...................................................
Electronic home entertainment equipment ...............................................
7.4
5.9
5.8
5.5
5.5
5.2
5.1
5.1
4.9
4.9
Residential c a re .........................................................................................
Medical instruments and supplies..............................................................
Outpatient facilities and health services, n.e.c............................................
Research, management, and consulting services ....................................
Radio and tv communication equipment...................................................
Oil and gas field services...........................................................................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus ..........................................................
Partitions and fixtures.................................................................................
Office and miscellaneous furniture and fixtures.........................................
Drugs .........................................................................................................
4.9
'4 .4
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.0
4.0
4.0
Slowest growing or most rapidly declining
Average
annual rate
of change
(percent)
New farm housing, alterations, and additions ...........................................
Crude petroleum, natural gas, and gas liquids...........................................
Footwear except rubber and plastic .........................................................
New nonfarm housing, n.e.c........................................................................
Railroad equipment ...................................................................................
Luggage, handbags, and leather products, n.e.c........................................
Metal mining ..............................................................................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products ...................................................
Iron and steel foundries .............................................................................
New conservation and development facilities ..........................................
-3.2
-2.0
-2 .0
-1.7
-1 .3
-1.0
- .8
- .8
- .7
- .4
Tobacco manufactures...............................................................................
Watch, clock, jewelry, and furniture repair.................................................
New local transit facilities...........................................................................
New gas utility and pipeline facilities.........................................................
Ship and boat building and repairing..........................................................
Private households.....................................................................................
Miscellaneous primary and secondary m eta ls...........................................
Mobile homes ............................................................................................
Jewelry, silverware, and plated w are.........................................................
New nonbuilding facilities, n.e.c...................................................................
- .2
- .2
- .1
- .0
.2
.2
n.e.c. = not elsewhere classified.
.3
.4
.4
.5
Table 4. Projected employment trends for wage and
salary workers, selected industries, 1986-2000
Fastest growing
Average
annual rate
of change
(percent)
Computer and data processing services...................................................
Outpatient facilities and health services, n.e.c............................................
Personnel supply services .........................................................................
Offices of health practitioners....................................................................
Credit reporting and business services, n.e.c..............................................
Legal services ............................................................................................
Nursing and personal care facilities ..........................................................
Research, management, and consulting services ....................................
Residential c a re ..........................................................................................
Miscellaneous publishing ...........................................................................
5.2
4.6
4.4
4.4
4.1
3.8
3.8
3.6
3.5
3.4
Equipment rental and le asing....................................................................
Accounting, auditing, and services, n.e.c....................................................
Personal services, n.e.c...............................................................................
Detective and protective services..............................................................
Credit agencies and investment offices.....................................................
Advertising..................................................................................................
Services to dwellings and other buildings .................................................
Individual and miscellaneous social services.............................................
Automotive rentals, without d riv e rs ............................................................
Arrangement of passenger transportation .................................................
3.4
3.2
3.1
3.1
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.7
2.6
Most rapidly declining
Average
annual rate
of change
(percent)
Railroad transportation...............................................................................
Footwear except rubber and plastic ..........................................................
Railroad equipment ...................................................................................
Metal mining ..............................................................................................
Miscellaneous primary and secondary m eta ls...........................................
Luggage, handbags, and leather products, n.e.c........................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products ...................................................
Iron and steel foundries .............................................................................
Electronic home entertainment equipment ...............................................
-3.9
-3 .6
-3.4
-3.1
-2.3
-2.3
-2.2
-2.1
-2.1
Agricultural chemicals ...............................................................................
Dairy products ............................................................................................
Petroleum refining ......................................................................................
Grain mill products and fats and o ils ..........................................................
Tobacco manufactures...............................................................................
Tires and inner tu b e s .................................................................................
Plastics materials and synthetics ..............................................................
Coal mining ................................................................................................
Ship and boat building and repairing.........................................................
Sugar and confectionery products..............................................................
Aircraft.........................................................................................................
-1.9
-1.9
-1.9
-1.8
-1.8
-1.8
-1.7
-1.6
-1.6
-1.6
-1 .5
n.e.c. = not elsewhere classified.
Transportation equipment. BLS projects that employment
in the auto industry will fall below the 1986 level, as taper
ing demand and higher productivity offset the trend toward
more domestic-based production of foreign automobiles.
Domestic production is expected to slow to about 2.0 per
cent a year, somewhat below pre-1979 rates of growth and
trailing the 2.4-percent projected growth rate of gnp.
The slowdown reflects a projected absolute decline in the
size of the 16- to 34-year-old population, which accounts for
the majority of first-time car buyers. This dampening trend
offsets the expectation that there will be a larger number of
older car buyers, who generally buy higher priced cars. At
the same time, investment in new auto plants with the latest
automated production techniques leads to a projected 3.2percent gain in productivity. Slower demand and high pro
ductivity outweigh the assumption that Japanese automakers
will expand their U.S. operations— a likely event as the
rising value of the yen relative to the dollar forces Japanese
car prices to less competitive levels. Imports (in dollar
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terms) are projected to hold a slightly smaller share of the
market than at present, about 22 percent in 2000, as imports
from Japan shrink but those from the Third World rise. In
total, domestic output of the motor vehicle industry is pro
jected to grow only about 2.0 percent a year during the
1986-2000 period (compared to 2.4 percent for gnp), and
employment to fall from 865,000 to 749,000 jobs.
The aircraft industry is expected to see production gains
of only 0.8 percent a year, considerably slower than recent
trends. The turnabout mainly results from the assumption of
tapering defense demand following current high levels, but
it is tempered somewhat by accelerated export growth. The
industry is expected to be able to remain competitive in the
export market through cost-cutting and productivity im
provements—jobs are projected to shrink from 339,000 in
1986 to 274,000 in 2000. Similar trends apply in the aircraft
and missile engines and equipment industry— an increase in
exports buoy output growth but the numbers of jobs fall
from 385,000 in 1986 to 330,000 in 2000.
Instruments and related products. Demand is projected to
be very high for many products in this industry, especially
for optical instruments (in particular, spectrographs and
electron microscopes), medical instruments, measuring and
controlling devices, and engineering and scientific instru
ments. These industries have typically experienced very
rapid output growth, and continued strong demand reflects
the assumed high levels of research and development spend
ing by U.S. manufacturers on this type of equipment in the
future. Employment will grow from 707,000 in 1986 to
771,000 in 2000, or about 9 percent over the entire period.
Primary and fabricated metals. Primary metals have suf
fered by far the largest job contraction of all the manufactur
ing sectors in the 1979-86 period, shrinking by 40 percent.
All the primary metals industries have been affected, but
basic steel and iron and steel foundries have lost the most
jobs. The 1980-82 recessions accelerated a long-term de
cline in steel— the peak employment year for steel was 1965
and for production, 1974— and the industry closed many of
its plants and cut production and jobs drastically. Large
capital expenditures would be necessary to improve the
competitiveness of raw steel production in the United
States, but recent financial losses by most of the large steel
companies have led instead to reduced capital expenditures.
Also, this industry is faced by worldwide excess capacity,
making needed capital improvements very risky.
The industry’s declines are projected to ease in the future
because most of the more inefficient mills have already
closed, but no rebound is anticipated. U.S. steel output in
real terms is projected to fall —0.8 percent a year over the
1986-2000 period (compared to —8.9 percent during the
1979-86 period), and employment to deline by —2.2 per
cent annually (versus —10.3 percent over the 1979-86 pe
riod). (The year 1986 may have been atypical because of a
strike in the industry, but clearly, long-term trends are
35
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
September 1987 •
Projections 2000: Industry Output and Employment
sharply negative.) Imports are projected to rise in value from
22.5 percent of total output in 1985 to almost 31 percent by
2000. Most of the import increases are expected to be in the
form of semifinished steel for further processing in U.S.
finishing mills, which are relatively more efficient than the
Nation’s raw steel manufacturing plants. Demand for steel
and other primary metals will be sharply limited by the
continued shift to other inputs (such as plastics and com
posites) in transportation equipment, machinery, and other
manufactured goods.
Fabricated metal products lost 285,000 jobs between
1979 and 1986, and the sector is projected to lose another
120,000 by 2000. Among the fabricated metals industries,
structural metal products of the type used in construction are
projected to post output growth at about the same rate as
new construction, 1.7 percent a year, but more efficient
production techniques will result in continued employment
declines. Metal coating, engraving, and allied services is the
only fabricated metals industry projected to add jobs. It is
expected to enjoy fairly strong output growth (2.9 percent a
year), because about 10 percent of its output is purchased by
the fast-growing electronic components industry. Productiv
ity advances in this industry are limited by the large number
of small firms and by product diversity.
Food products. Overall output of food products is pro
jected to grow slower than past trends, reflecting the future
slowdown in population growth. Changing demographics
and consumer preferences will boost demand for higher
valued food items, such as prepared convenience foods,
while limiting growth for others, such as sugar and confec
tionery products.
The meat products industry is projected to register 1.6percent annual output growth, with exports rising faster than
domestic consumption. Canned, dried, and frozen foods is
Table 5. Industries projected to generate the largest num
bers of new wage and salary jobs, 1986-2000
Industry
New jobs
(thousands)
Eating and drinking p la ce s......................................................................
Offices of health practitioners..................................................................
New and repair construction....................................................................
Nursing and personal care facilities ........................................................
Personnel supply services .......................................................................
State and local government education ...................................................
Machinery and equipment wholesalers...................................................
Computer and data processing services.................................................
Grocery store s..........................................................................................
Hotels and other lodging places ..............................................................
2,471
1,375
890
852
832
784
614
613
598
574
Outpatient facilities and health services, n.e.c..........................................
State and local general government, n.e.c................................................
Research, management, and consulting services ..................................
Legal services ..........................................................................................
Credit agencies and investment offices...................................................
Credit reporting and business services, n.e.c............................................
Hospitals, priva te .....................................................................................
Department stores ...................................................................................
Real estate ..............................................................................................
Services to dwellings and other buildings ...............................................
547
546
531
522
499
497
481
386
353
341
n.e.c. = not elsewhere classified.
Digitized for36
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projected to have the fastest output growth of all the food
sectors, 2.2 percent a year. Strong demand for high-priced
frozen dinners and other frozen specialties will more than
offset diminishing purchases of canned fruits and vegeta
bles. The market for alcoholic beverages is expected to
erode further as consumers continue to change their drinking
habits. Output of domestic beer, wine, and liquor has shown
no growth in real terms since 1979, and is projected to
recover to only 1.0-percent annual growth over the 1986—
2000 period. This compares to 3- to 4-percent average
growth for the industry prior to 1979. Soft drinks and flavor
ings (including carbonated waters) are projected to reap
some of the benefits of flat beer and liquor sales, but be
cause of slow growth in both the teen population and the
number of fast food establishments, output of soft drinks
will grow much slower than historically.
Efficiencies in food production are projected to continue
to increase over the next decade, especially in grain mill
products and in dairy products. Employment has been de
clining or has remained essentially unchanged in most food
industries over the past 25 years, and this trend is expected
to continue. Meat products, the largest food industry in terms
of employment, is projected to add 10,000 jobs to reach
382.000 by 2000, but overall, food industries combined are
estimated to lose 161,000 jobs between 1986 and 2000.
Apparel and textiles. Rising real disposable income will
boost consumer demand for apparel, but a larger proportion
of output will come from foreign suppliers. Clothing im
ports are expected to claim a 37-percent market share by
2000, compared to an already high 28 percent in 1985.
Despite rising imports, domestic production of apparel is
projected to expand by 1.1 percent a year, because of the
strong consumer demand and because continued cost
cutting measures will keep U.S. apparel prices competitive.
Nevertheless, employment in the industry is projected to fall
from 921,000 in 1986 to 763,000 in 2000, a cutback of
158.000 jobs.
Textile mill products will benefit from both the steady
growth in domestic apparel production and from the contin
ued diffusion of new, automated technologies. Although
imports are expected to increase their market share slightly,
U.S. textile manufacturers are projected to be able to enjoy
a healthy expansion of production. Floor covering mills are
expected to be the fastest growing of the textile industries,
with output rising 3.0 percent a year. Employment in tex
tiles will continue to fall, however. About 300,000 jobs
have been cut back in textile industries since the peak year
1973, and 99,000 fewer jobs are expected by 2000.
Printing and publishing. Printing and publishing is one of
the few manufacturing sectors to have registered consistent
job gains in the last few years. Even during the recession,
both output and employment increased steadily. Despite the
introduction of electronic composition systems and other
new technologies in the larger firms, employment gains in
printing and publishing have actually accelerated from past
rates to average 2.6 percent a year over the 1979-86 period.
The explanation for this growth lies in sharp increases in
demand for new trade journals and newsletters, catalogs and
directories, software manuals, new specialty magazines
such as health and fitness and regional magazines, commer
cial printing and business forms, elementary school text
books, and greeting cards. Also, the industry encompasses
a large number of small, widely scattered firms, which often
have only limited capacity to invest in the newer technolo
gies. Occupational shifts also are occurring within the print
ing trades industries, from fewer typesetters and other craftworkers to more front-office personnel such as writers,
editors, managers, and salesworkers.
Growth is projected to continue to be strong through the
1990’s, and all of the printing and publishing industries are
projected to show increases in both output and employment
between 1986 and 2000. The most rapid growth will be for
miscellaneous publishing, with 3.6-percent per year output
gains and 3.4-percent employment growth.
Chemicals and allied products. The chemical industry en
compasses a variety of products, each with a somewhat
different outlook. Industrial chemicals are projected to con
tinue their upswing from the 1980-82 recessions, but future
expansion is limited. Once an important export industry, the
domestic chemical sector has seen a weakening in world
wide demand as many foreign countries have invested in
their own chemical manufacturing facilities. In contrast,
substantial output growth is projected for plastics materials
and synthetics, reflecting for the most part gains for plastics
and resins (such as carbon fiber resin for autos and air
planes), but little or no growth in synthetic fibers. The
plastics materials and synthetics industry traditionally has
enjoyed high productivity, however, and employment is
expected to continue to fall despite sharp output advances.
The fastest growing chemical industry, and indeed one of
the fastest growing industries in the whole economy in
terms of output, is drugs and pharmaceutical products. Ad
vances in biomedical research have led to a vast array of
important new drugs, and it is expected that these will be
adopted widely in coming years. Also, an expanding elderly
population which spends more of its income on medicines
than any other age group will boost demand. Output of drug
products is projected to grow 4.0 percent a year, and em
ployment is expected to rise by 17,000 to 224,000 in 2000.
Service-producing industries
Overall trends for the service-producing sector are pro
jected to be vastly different from those in the goods sector.
Payroll job growth will be very strong for almost all of the
service-producing industries, particularly health services,
business services, and trade. Service-producing employ
ment will constitute about 80 percent of all wage and salary
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
jobs by the year 2000. More than 20 million new jobs are
projected to be added to the service-producing sector be
tween 1986 and 2000.
Transportation. In recent years, deregulation has boosted
employment in the air transportation industry as many
smaller firms entered the market and price competition stim
ulated demand. But, in the long-run, consolidation and take
overs are expected to dampen the rate of job growth. Em
ployment has been growing by more than 7 percent a year
since 1983, but future increases are expected to be limited
to 1.7 percent annually. This represents a gain of 151,000
jobs between 1986 and 2000. The slowdown occurs as un
successful competitors cut back on routes or merge with
larger companies.
Along with the recent rise in airline transportation output
and employment, there has been a corresponding boom in
the arrangement of passenger transportation (travel agen
cies). With the proliferation and constant revision of new
routes and new fares, the traveler has turned from the airline
itself to an independent travel agent to make reservations.
Employment in travel agencies and independent ticket of
fices rose from 99,000 in 1980 (the first year for which
separate data were available for the industry) to 158,000 in
1986, and an additional 69,000 jobs are projected to be
added by 2000.
Demand for truck transportation is generally dependent
on the state of the economy; the value of trucking output is
projected to post 2.2-percent annual growth over the 1986—
2000 period. Consolidations are anticipated to have an im
pact in this industry as well, and projected employment
growth is limited to 1.5 percent annually. Greater effi
ciencies in scheduling, marketing, and cost control are ex
pected to make possible greater gains in output than in
employment.
Communications. The breakup of the telephone service
monopoly in 1983 thus far has not led to real output gains,
and employment in communications (except broadcasting)
is beginning to edge downward from the 1.1 million mark
maintained through most of the 1970’s and 1980’s. Compe
tition in the 1990’s is expected to lead to an employment
decline of about 121,000 (or —0.9 percent a year), but real
output is projected to advance 3.9 percent a year as demand
for telecommunications surges.
Radio and television broadcasting has seen the develop
ment of cable tv systems, which provided a further boost to
already expanding output and employment. Growth should
taper as the market becomes saturated, and the projections
show a deceleration to 1.7-percent annual job gains during
the 1986-2000 period, compared to 2.6 percent over the
1982-86 period.
Wholesale trade. Over the projection period, wholesale
trade is expected to add 1.5 million jobs, about 600,000 of
them among machinery and equipment suppliers. This gain
37
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
September 1987 •
Projections 2000: Industry Output and Employment
is a consequence of the earlier described assumptions of
strong capital investment and export growth in these manu
facturing industries.
Retail trade. In retail trade, 4.9 million jobs will be
added. Although a very sizable number, the rate of gain
projected for retail jobs falls considerably below historical
trends for two reasons: (1) the trade division generally mir
rors overall economic patterns, and as growth in the labor
force and total employment moderates, retail trade can be
expected to do likewise; and (2) a large part of the past
additions to retail trade employment have been part-time
workers, about 40 percent during the 1973-85 period,3 but
trends indicate that this growth in the part-time labor force
may not continue indefinitely.
As the following tabulation shows, part-time employment
is mainly concentrated among teenagers and women in the
25-to-54 and 55-and-older age groups:
Part-time workers, 19864
Number
(thousands)
T o t a l ........................................................
Percent
of total
2 0 ,5 9 8
1 0 0 .0
2 ,3 2 6
1 1 .3
2 ,468
12.0
.............................................
1,300
6 .3
W o m e n .......................................
1 ,8 4 1
8 .9
16-19:
M en
......................
W o m e n .......................................
20-24:
M en
25-54:
M en
.............................................
1,758
8 .5
W o m e n .......................................
7 ,3 9 9
3 5 .9
5 5 an d over:
.............................................
1,438
7 .0
W o m e n .......................................
M en
2 ,068
10.0
However, the supply of these workers is projected to be very
limited in the future. The teenage labor force will show a net
increase of only 195,000 between 1986 and 2000— consist
ing of an absolute decline of 1.5 million over the 1986-92
period (resulting from the “birth dearth” of the 1960’s and
1970’s) and an increase of 1.7 million over the 1992-2000
period (reflecting the larger numbers of births to baby-boom
parents in the 1980’s). The net impact of teenage labor force
changes is to shrink this age group from 6.9 percent of all
workers in 1986 to 6.0 percent by 2000.
Additionally, data clearly indicate a declining preference
by women for part-time work. The following tabulation
shows women voluntarily working part time as a percentage
of all employed women for selected recent years:
Percent
part-time
............................... ....................................
............................... ....................................
2 4 .1
............................... ....................................
............................... ....................................
2 3 .2
1982
1984
............................... ....................................
2 1 .9
1986
............................... ....................................
2 1 .7
1976
1978
1980
38 FRASER
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
2 3 .7
2 2 .9
Retailers in some areas have already found it difficult to
staff their part-time positions, and there is much discussion
about alternative sources of labor, such as older workers, to
fill these jobs. This might be a partial solution in the longer
term, as the labor force age 55 and over is projected to
increase dramatically between 1986 and 2000. However, it
does not seem a promising interim solution unless many
early retirees can be induced to return to part-time work
within the next few years. Although the number of workers
aged 55 to 64 is projected to increase by 1.7 million between
1986 and 2000— an unprecedented addition— it does not
come close to matching the expected increase in retail trade
jobs. Furthermore, all of the increase in the labor force of
older persons begins to occur only after 1995.
The projected employment data in this article do not dis
tinguish between part-time and full-time jobs, but an exam
ination of the average workweek can provide some indica
tion of expected trends. Average weekly hours in retail trade
dropped from 35.6 in 1972 to 29.2 in 1986 (and to 25.6 in
eating and drinking places), clearly a reflection of the
growth in part-time employment. This decline, however, is
beginning to moderate and is assumed to slow further in the
projections. The rate of decline in the workweek averaged
—0.8 percent a year from 1972 to 1979 for retail trade (other
than eating and drinking places) and —2.1 percent for eating
and drinking establishments. Over the more recent period
1979-86, the workweek decline averaged —0.7 and —0.6
percent, respectively. The projected decline is only —0.2
percent a year for retail trade and —0.3 percent for eating
and drinking establishments.
Among individual retail industries, eating and drinking
places will have the most growth in jobs, 2.5 million, but
the rate of increase will be much slower than historically. In
particular, the proliferation of fast-food establishments,
which generated many jobs in the past, should taper off as
the market becomes saturated and as population growth
slows, especially that of the teenage population. Some addi
tional growth is expected for eating and drinking places as
the practice of contracting out food service operations
reaches more markets, such as hospitals, residential institu
tions, and schools.
Grocery stores are projected to add 598,000 new jobs by
2000, reflecting both a trend toward providing more laborintensive services (such as carry-out prepared meals, meat
and deli counters, fish counters, and salad bars), as well as
the continued expansion of store hours. Department stores
will gain 386,000 jobs, and miscellaneous shopping goods
stores are projected to add 339,000. (This latter sector in
cludes such establishments as sporting goods, jewelry,
book, gift, and stationery stores.)
Finance and insurance. Banking, credit agencies, and in
vestment offices should enjoy very substantial rates of out
put growth, but consolidation and technological advances in
automatic banking and other financial transactions will
sharply slow past rates of employment gain. The output
growth is expected as demand for financial services contin
ues unabated, although the projected rates of increase are
not expected to match those of recent years. In 1985 and
1986, falling interest rates and a bull market caused a surge
in mortgage banking services and brokerage services. The
projected long-term rates of output growth for these services
are more in line with past longer term trends. Employment
in finance is expected to grow less rapidly than in the past,
but even so, there are projected to be 262,000 more jobs in
banking, 495,000 more in credit agencies and investment
offices, and 134,000 more in security and commodity bro
kers and exchanges by the year 2000. It should be noted that
the distinctions among these sectors are blurring, as deregu
lation eliminates many restrictions on financial services.
The value of insurance services is projected to grow at
about the same rate as g n p , 2.3 percent a year during the
1986-2000 period. Because of greater efficiencies in com
puterized underwriting, job gains will be limited— only
168,000 for insurance carriers and 214,000 for independent
agents and brokers.
Services division. The major industry division, services,
is composed of many different types of activities— business,
health, professional, recreational, personal, and educa
tional, to name a few. Overall, services has been and is
projected to be the fastest growing division in terms of
employment, adding 10 million new jobs between 1986 and
2000. In 1986, it accounted for about 23 percent of all
nonfarm wage and salary jobs; in 2000, it will account for
more than 27 percent. More than 32 million payroll jobs will
be in the services division in the year 2000.
Despite such awesome growth, the projected gains do not
match past increases, due to the overall slowdown of labor
force and employment growth expected in the 1990’s. Over
the period 1972-86, the services division added 10.4 mil
lion new jobs; its rate of growth averaged 4.5 percent a year.
The projected rate of increase 1986-2000 is 2.7 percent a year.
Following is a discussion of some of the major industries
within the services division.
Business and professional services. For the current set of
projections, it has been possible because of an expansion in
b l s data series to study more of the detailed business serv
ices industries to try to get a clearer picture of where growth
will occur. As can be seen in table 6, virtually all the business
services industries are projected to have very rapid rates of
output and employment growth, much faster than the in
creases in g n p or overall employment. The development of
new types of specialized services continues to accelerate,
thereby boosting employment in the business services sector.
The most rapidly growing business services industry and,
in fact, the most rapidly growing of all the industries in the
projections system in terms of employment, will be com
puter and data processing services. The need for systems
design and analysis, programming, and software develop
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
ment is certain to be very strong, reflecting the demand for
specialized systems by business and government as well as
the proliferation of packaged software for a wide variety of
users. The heavy investment in computer-assisted design
and manufacturing techniques which is assumed for the
1990’s inevitably will lead to a sharp increase in demand for
computer specialists. Employment in the industry is pro
jected to swell by 5.2 percent a year, just about doubling its
1986 level to reach 1.2 million by 2000.
The business services industry with the biggest absolute
increase in employment will be personnel supply services,
gaining more than 800,000 jobs over 1986’s 1.0 million
level by the year 2000. This industry has been one of the
most rapidly expanding in recent years, almost doubling in
employment over the period 1982-86.
Several factors help explain the phenomenal growth in
personnel services. Most important has been the expansion
in the temporary help industry.3 The demand for temporary
help has been very strong because of lower fringe benefit
costs— “temps” typically have fewer benefits than perma
nent employees— and because of employers’ need to meet
peak workloads under uncertain economic conditions. On
the supply side, many workers have been willing to work as
temporaries because of the opportunities for flexible
scheduling of assignments and the chance for skill enhance
ment. The temporary field is not limited only to office
workers; the market is expanding to include industrial, med
ical /managerial, and engineering and technical occupations
as well. The projected rate of job growth for temporary help,
however, is not expected to match the gains of 1982-86
because a large part of that surge was associated with cycli
cal recovery from the 1980-82 downturns. Despite a slow
down, however, growth of the temporary help industry will
still be very strong.
Another factor contributing to growth in personnel supply
services has been the trend by government to contract out
operations previously performed by public employees. The
operation of private prisons under contract with State and
local governments is an example. The rise in public facilities
management by private firms will foster additional growth
in the personnel supply industry.
Contracting out, not only by government agencies but
also by private business establishments, has also had an
impact on the building services and protective services in
dustries. In addition, the office and commercial building
boom in recent years boosted the demand for contract clean
ing and guard services. Future gains should be slower as
construction tapers and the trend toward contracting out
levels off. Thus, projected increases for the services to
dwellings industry and the detective and protective services
industry are not expected to match historical rates. Some
new growth is anticipated for protective services in the field
of mechanical protective devices and polygraph services,
but these two areas are relatively small compared to building
guard services.
39
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
September 1987 •
Projections 2000: Industry Ouput and Employment
The development of new services should keep demand for
the research, management, and consulting services industry
very strong. Included in this industry are independent labo
ratories for research and development (nonmedical, and not
manufacturing auxiliaries), market research, personnel
training or management, economic research, efficiency ex
perts, lobbyists, and other business consultants. Output is
projected to grow 4.3 percent a year during the 1986-2000
period, a rate second only to that of computer services
among all the business services industries. Some 513,000
new jobs are projected to be added to 1986’s level of
788,000, an increase of nearly two-thirds over the period
1986-2000.
The equipment rental and leasing sector shows very high
projected output and employment growth rates (ranking
among the top 20 for employment) primarily because of
video tape rentals. The rest of this industry includes the
leasing of tools and heavy construction equipment, which is
not expected to be a high-growth service. (Computer leasing
is not included here; rather, it is accounted for either in the
computer services industry or in the computer manufactur
ing industry.)
The credit reporting and business services not-elsewhereclassified sector has very rapid projected growth primarily
because of the “not-elsewhere-classified” designation. All
the new business services that do not fit any other category
are included in this industry. Examples are mailing list
compilers, word processing services (typing), building in
spectors, tourist and convention bureaus, restaurant reserva
tion services, speakers’ bureaus, merchandise liquidators,
check validating services, and so on. Historically, employ
ment growth in this industry has been very sharp, averaging
about 60,000 new jobs each year since 1983. Future gains
for miscellaneous business services should be more limited
as the size of the industry reaches some upward limit. Em
ployment increases in credit reporting and miscellaneous
business services over the next 14 years are projected to
average about 36,000 a year, for a total employment level
of 1.2 million by 2000.
The legal services industry has been booming, reflecting
the increasing incidence of liability litigation; corporate
mergers and acquisitions; high divorce levels; the geo
graphic expansion of law firms; a greater degree of legal
specialization within firms; and an increase in litigation in
general. In addition, trends in the industry indicate a shift
from self-employed workers toward more wage and salary
personnel. Payroll employment in legal services grew by
7.4 percent each year between 1972 and 1986, while the
number of self-employed (plus unpaid family workers)
posted only 0.7-percent annual growth. These trends— very
rapid demand growth and fewer self-employed lawyers—
are projected to continue in the legal services industry. An
additional 519,000 payroll jobs are projected for the legal
services industry by the year 2000. This represents a 3.8percent annual rate of increase, ranking legal services
among the top 10 fastest growing employment industries. A
40
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
rising proportion of these jobs are expected to be filled by
legal assistants, rather than attorneys.
Like factory automation in manufacturing industries, of
fice automation in business (and financial) service industries
will have a significant impact on the occupational structure
of those industries. It is expected that administrative support
occupations, mainly in the clerical field, will account for a
much smaller share of the work force. In some cases, even
the absolute numbers of such jobs will decline, for example,
stenographers, payroll and timekeeping clerks, typists and
word processors, data entry keyers, and statistical clerks.
Health services. Industries providing medical care are un
dergoing very pronounced changes having important impli
cations for future growth. Cost containment policies have
halted— at least temporarily— the expansion of hospital out
put and employment, and more of the services once per
formed in a hospital now are being performed in doctors’
offices and in outpatient facilities. Patient care is generally
cheaper in these centers than in traditional hospitals, provid
ing an impetus for future growth. New group practices such
as emergency care clinics, surgicenters, and walk-in treat
ment centers, are becoming commonplace. Often these es
tablishments perform their own radiological and laboratory
work. This shift from hospital to outpatient care is projected
to continue and, coupled with an increasing demand for
medical care services, will significantly boost employment
in establishments classified as offices of health practi
tioners. It is projected that 1.4 million new payroll jobs will
be added to this industry between 1986 and 2000, reflecting
a rate of growth of 4.4 percent a year.
Demand for health care is projected to be very strong in
the 1990’s because of the aging of the population and be
cause of dramatic advances in medical technologies. The
following tabulations illustrate the large projected increase
in the elderly population and the reasons why this factor is
so significant for the health industries:
P o p u la tio n
(m illio n s)
65 a n d
o ld e r
85 and
o ld e r
A s p ercen t
o f to ta l
65 a n d
o ld e r
85 a n d
o ld e r
0 .7
1 9 7 0 ................................. . 2 0 . 1
1 .4
9 .8
1975
1 .8
1 0 .5
.8
2 .3
1 1 .3
1.0
................................. . 2 2 . 7
1 9 8 0 ................................. . 2 5 . 7
1 9 8 5 .................................... . 2 8 . 5
2 .7
11.9
1.1
P r o je c te d 2 0 0 0 ........... . 3 4 . 9
4 .9
13.0
1.8
1 9 8 2 - 8 3 h ealth e x p en d itu res
a s a p e r c e n t o f to ta l e x p en d itu res
T o ta l h e alt h care
. ..
M ed ical services
.
D r u g s and s u p p l i e s
H e a lt h in su r a n c e
.
A ll con su m er
u n its
C o n su m er un it h ea d
a g e 65 o r o v e r
4 .4
2 .4
9 .9
4.1
.7
2 .0
1 .2
3 .8
Table 6.
Employment by selected industry, 1972, 1979, 1986, and projected to 2000
Industry
Total.........................................................................................
Agriculture....................................................................................................
Livestock and livestock products..............................................................
Other agricultural products ......................................................................
Agricultural services, forestry, and fishing ...............................................
Private households........................................................................................
Nonfarm self-employed and unpaid family workers ....................................
Nonfarm wage and salary ........................................................
Mining ...........................................................................................................
Metal m ining..............................................................................................
Coal mining ..............................................................................................
Crude petroleum, natural gas, and gas liquids.........................................
Oil and gas field services .........................................................................
Nonmetallic minerals, except fuels ..........................................................
Standard
Industrial
Classification
_
01,2,7,8,9
01 pt., 02 pt.
01 pt., 02 pt.
07,08,09
88
—
10-14
10
11,12
131,2
138
14
Construction ................................................................................................
15,16,17
Manufacturing ..............................................................................................
Durable manufacturing .............................................................................
Lumber and wood products..................................................................
Logging camps and logging contractors...........................................
Sawmills and planing mills ................................................................
Millwork and structural wood members, n.e.c.....................................
Veneer and plywood .........................................................................
Wood containers and miscellaneous wood products........................
Mobile homes ...................................................................................
20-39
24,25,32-39
24
241
242
2431,4,9
2435,6
244,9
2451
Annual rate of
change, 1986-20001
(percent)
Employment
(thousands)
Projected, 2000
1972
1979
1986
Low
Moderate
High
Employment
Output
84,549
101,353
111,623
126,432
133,030
137,533
1.3
2.4
3,523
1,365
1,699
459
1,693
5,819
3,401
988
1,785
628
1,326
7,145
3,252
848
1,534
875
1,241
8,086
2,784
629
1,045
1,110
1,122
8,972
2,917
677
1,120
1,120
1,215
9,742
3,009
745
1,087
1,177
1,234
10,277
- .8
-1.6
-2.2
1.8
- .1
1.3
2.4
1.4
3.0
3.0
.2
-
73,514
89,481
99,044
113,554
119,156
123,013
1.3
-
628
83
161
143
125
116
958
101
259
198
276
124
783
41
176
224
233
109
672
20
140
169
253
91
724
27
141
184
271
102
779
29
149
192
302
106
- .6
-3.1
-1.6
-1.4
1.1
- .5
- .2
- .8
2.2
-2.0
4.1
1.4
3,889
4,463
4,904
5,643
5,794
6,077
1.2
1.4
19,151
11,050
726
69
225
122
75
124
80
21,042
12,762
767
89
237
150
77
132
57
18,994
11,244
711
83
194
184
61
118
49
16,833
9,654
603
67
137
209
44
96
34
18,160
10,731
693
71
173
227
57
106
42
19,050
11,193
763
72
188
254
68
109
50
- .3
- .3
- .2
-1.1
- .8
1.5
- .5
- .8
-1.1
2.3
2.7
1.9
2.7
1.5
1.7
2.6
2.1
.4
Furniture and fixtures ...........................................................................
Household furniture ...........................................................................
Partitions and fixtures.........................................................................
Office and miscellaneous furniture and fixtures................................
25
251
254
252,3,9
484
337
56
91
498
329
65
104
497
294
72
131
515
280
72
163
563
311
80
172
607
351
81
175
.9
.4
.7
2.0
3.1
2.2
4.0
4.0
Stone, clay, and glass products............................................................
Glass and glass products..................................................................
Concrete, gypsum, and plaster products...........................................
Stone, clay, and miscellaneous mineral products ............................
32
321,2,3
327
325,6,8,9
678
193
210
243
710
199
216
262
586
155
209
199
483
121
184
162
535
138
206
173
560
146
217
179
- .6
- .8
- .1
-1.0
1.4
1.2
1.5
1.6
Primary metal industries .......................................................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products ...........................................
Iron and steel foundries ....................................................................
Miscellaneous primary and secondary m etals..................................
Aluminum rolling and drawing............................................................
Nonferrous wire drawing and insulating ...........................................
Aluminum foundries...........................................................................
33
331
332
334,9
3353,4,5
3357
1,173
568
219
36
1,254
571
241
51
76
89
753
275
131
42
65
77
489
166
81
25
53
60
574
202
97
30
55
68
646
229
109
37
60
71
46
58
53
40
45
46
-1.9
-2.2
-2.1
-2.3
-1.2
- .9
-1.2
Fabricated metal products....................................................................
Metal cans and shipping containers .................................................
Cutlery, hand tools, and hardware ...................................................
Plumbing and nonelectric heating equipment ..................................
Fabricated structural metal products.................................................
Screw machine products, bolts, rivets, and so fo rth .........................
Forgings ............................................................................................
Automotive stampings .......................................................................
Stampings, except automotive ..........................................................
Metal coating, engraving, and allied services ..................................
Ordnance, except vehicles and m issiles...........................................
Miscellaneous fabricated metal products...........................................
34
341
342
343
344
345
3462,3
3465
3466,9
347
348
349
1,547
85
161
71
444
100
88
82
224
1,718
80
184
76
523
116
63
118
124
107
64
264
1,433
58
136
61
438
93
39
105
100
110
77
216
1,172
45
115
53
340
73
34
75
85
112
67
174
1,313
50
127
56
385
84
38
91
88
126
74
193
1,361
52
130
59
394
88
41
104
90
129
77
197
Machinery, except electrical..................................................................
Engines and turbines.........................................................................
Farm and garden machinery ............................................................
Construction machinery ....................................................................
Mining and oilfield m achinery............................................................
Materials handling machinery and equipment ..................................
Metalworking machinery....................................................................
Special industry machinery ..........................................................
General industrial machinery ......................................................
Electronic computing equipment..................................................
Office and accounting machines ..................................................
Refrigeration and service industry machinery ...............................
Miscellaneous nonelectrical machinery.............................................
35
351
352
3531
3532,3
3534,5,6,7
354
355
356
3573
3572,4,6,9
358
359
1,889
115
135
139
65
89
286
177
267
182
77
164
191
2,485
145
182
156
120
106
369
205
329
319
78
188
286
2,059
102
91
80
68
79
304
159
255
418
57
171
275
1,951
85
80
71
74
75
250
130
242
466
43
149
287
2,129
93
80
76
83
87
281
140
268
503
51
166
301
2,171
92
85
76
95
92
286
138
273
510
49
169
306
Electrical and electronic equipment .....................................................
Electric distributing equipment ..........................................................
Electrical industrial apparatus............................................................
Household appliances ......................................................................
Electric lighting and wiring equipment...............................................
Electronic home entertainment equipment ......................................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus.................................................
Radio and tv communication equipment...........................................
Electronic tu b e s .................................................................................
Semiconductors and related devices ...............................................
Miscellaneous electronic components...............................................
Storage batteries and engine electrical parts....................................
36
361
362
363
364
365
3661
3662
3671,2,3
3674
3675,6,7,8,9
3691,4
1,813
128
209
187
204
139
160
299
46
115
193
94
2,117
126
251
178
225
115
165
357
42
201
281
118
2,124
107
187
135
196
82
127
505
40
268
323
95
1,927
79
159
112
163
61
94
472
26
280
343
74
2,128
99
175
121
185
61
116
542
34
289
352
86
2,222
110
178
132
191
67
132
585
36
276
354
89
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
3361
85
104
.1
- .8
- .7
.3
1.1
1.6
1.4
- .6
1.8
-1.1
- .5
- .6
- .9
- .7
- .1
1.3
- .2
- .8
1.9
1.4
1.7
1.6
1.0
1.4
2.4
2.9
2.7
1.9
2
- .6
-1.0
- .4
1.4
.7
- .6
- .9
.3
1.3
- .7
- .2
.7
4.5
1.4
1.2
1.8
2.0
3.1
1.8
.9
1.9
7.4
3.7
2.9
2.2
.0
.6
.5
.8
3.9
2.4
2.0
2.5
1.6
4.9
4.1
4.2
-1.0
- .9
1.0
-
- .4
-2.1
- .6
.5
-1.1
.5
.6
- .7
.6
5.8
5.5
2.3
41
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
Table 6.
September 1987 •
Projections 2000: Industry Output and Employment
Continued— Employment by selected industry, 1972, 1979, 1986, and projected to 2000
Industry
Standard
Industrial
Classification
Employment
(thousands)
Projected, 2000
1972
1979
1986
Low
X-ray and other electromedical apparatus.........................................
Electrical equipment and supplies, n.e.c.............................................
Annual rate of
change, 1986—20001
(percent)
3693
3692,9
Moderate
High
-
26
30
32
27
41
23
45
24
46
25
1,790
875
415
383
77
287
224
76
193
49
86
2,077
990
463
441
86
333
298
81
226
74
74
2,016
865
396
387
82
339
385
153
185
28
61
1,516
679
307
306
67
243
282
120
129
16
47
1,697
749
335
340
75
274
330
124
147
17
55
Employment
Output
2.5
.9
5.2
3.0
1,742
770
343
350
78
282
339
129
151
17
55
-1.2
-1.0
-1.2
- .9
- .7
-1.5
-1.1
-1.5
-1.6
-3.4
- .7
1.7
2.0
1.9
2.1
3.0
.8
2.0
.8
.2
-1.3
3.4
-
Transportation equipment ....................................................................
Motor vehicles...................................................................................
Motor vehicles and car bodies........................................................
Motor vehicle parts and accessories.............................................
Truck and bus bodies, trailers, and motor homes..........................
Aircraft................................................................................................
Aircraft and missile engines and equipment ....................................
Guided missiles and space vehicles.................................................
Ship and boat building and repairing.................................................
Railroad equipment ...........................................................................
Miscellaneous transportation equipment...........................................
37
371
3711
3714
3713,5,6
3721
3724,8,3764,9
3761
373
374
375,9
Instruments and related products..........................................................
Engineering and scientific instruments .............................................
Measuring and controlling devices ...................................................
Optical and ophthalmic products........................................................
Medical instruments and supplies.....................................................
Photographic equipment and supplies .............................................
38
381
382
383,5
384
386
517
65
160
55
90
117
691
72
236
77
144
134
707
84
246
71
180
115
692
89
227
74
204
90
771
94
267
79
226
97
791
96
272
80
234
102
.6
.8
.6
.8
1.6
-1.2
3.7
3.3
3.4
5.1
4.4
2.9
Miscellaneous manufacturing................................................................
Jewelry, silverware, and plated ware ...............................................
Toys and sporting goods ............................................................
Manufactured products, n.e.c..............................................................
39
391
394
393,5,6,9
433
52
126
255
445
61
121
263
362
54
94
214
306
50
76
179
329
52
85
192
329
48
86
195
-
.7
.3
.7
.8
1.9
.4
3.1
1.9
8,101
1,745
347
217
255
172
258
117
91
137
152
8,280
1,733
358
180
261
189
231
110
85
153
166
7,750
1,617
372
163
238
156
210
97
71
141
169
7,179
1,421
380
123
227
120
180
76
56
117
142
7,429
1,456
382
125
235
122
182
78
59
122
150
7,857
1,512
390
129
252
124
188
82
64
131
153
- .3
- .7
.2
-1.9
- .1
-1.8
-1.0
-1.6
-1 .3
-1.0
- .8
1.8
1.5
1.6
1.2
2.2
1.7
.9
.5
1.0
1.5
1.8
Nondurable manufacturing .......................................................................
Food and kindred products ..................................................................
Meat products ...................................................................................
Dairy products....................................................................................
Canned, dried, and frozen foods........................................................
Grain mill products and fats and o ils .................................................
Bakery products.................................................................................
Sugar and confectionery products ...................................................
Alcoholic beverages...........................................................................
Soft drinks and flavorings..................................................................
Miscellaneous foods and kindred products.......................................
20-23,26-31
20
201
202
203
204,7
205
206
2082,3,4,5
2086,7
209
Tobacco manufactures .........................................................................
21
Textile mill products...............................................................................
Weaving, finishing, yarn and thread mills .........................................
Knitting mills .....................................................................................
Floor covering mills ...........................................................................
Miscellaneous textile goods ..............................................................
22
221,2,3,4,6,8
225
227
229
Apparel and other textile products ........................................................
Apparel ..............................................................................................
Miscellaneous fabricated textile products .........................................
23
231-8
239
Paper and allied products ....................................................................
Pulp, paper, and paperboard mills ...................................................
Converted paper products except containers ..................................
Paperboard containers and boxes ...................................................
26
261,2,3,6
264
265
Printing and publishing .........................................................................
Newspapers .....................................................................................
Periodicals..........................................................................................
Books ................................................................................................
Miscellaneous publishing ..................................................................
Commercial printing and business forms .........................................
Blankbooks and bookbinding ............................................................
Printing trade services ......................................................................
75
70
59
40
46
47
-1.8
985
583
268
62
72
886
528
227
61
70
706
388
207
56
55
582
302
183
56
42
607
316
186
60
46
653
337
198
68
51
-1.1
-1.5
- .8
.5
-1.3
1.6
1.4
1.4
3.0
1.7
1,382
1,206
176
1,304
1,115
189
1,105
921
184
903
744
158
924
763
161
965
799
166
-1.3
-1 .3
-1.0
1.3
1.1
2.1
689
273
196
220
706
271
221
214
675
249
230
196
633
218
243
172
655
223
256
176
715
233
284
198
- .2
- .8
.8
- .8
2.4
2.6
2.7
1.8
27
271
272
273
274
275,6
278
279
1,094
382
63
96
38
394
58
41
1,235
420
82
102
46
455
63
43
1,458
458
115
109
72
557
73
51
1,643
508
131
121
106
612
82
65
1,706
520
137
126
115
635
86
67
1,798
541
147
133
125
671
90
69
1.1
.9
1.3
1.1
3.4
.9
1.2
1.9
3.0
1.7
3.1
2.4
3.6
3.6
3.1
3.5
Chemicals and allied products..............................................................
Industrial chem icals...........................................................................
Plastics materials and synthetics .....................................................
Drugs ................................................................................................
Soap, cleaners, and toilet goods........................................................
Paints and allied products ................................................................
Agricultural chemicals ......................................................................
Miscellaneous chemical products.....................................................
28
281,6
282
283
284
285
287
289
1,009
284
229
159
122
69
56
90
1,109
333
212
192
139
69
70
93
1,023
291
167
207
147
63
55
93
912
250
125
217
147
50
39
86
950
258
132
224
154
53
42
89
1,017
272
143
235
167
58
47
95
- .5
- .9
-1.7
.6
.3
-1.2
-1.9
- .3
2.6
1.9
3.0
4.0
2.4
1.6
1.6
2.9
Petroleum and coal products................................................................
Petroleum refining .............................................................................
29
291
195
151
210
165
169
131
120
96
127
100
134
106
-2.0
-1.9
.6
.6
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products ......................................
Tires and inner tu b e s .........................................................................
Rubber products and plastic hose and footwear ..............................
Miscellaneous plastics products.......................................................
30
301
302,3,4,6
307
631
122
166
343
781
127
166
488
789
88
135
566
825
65
108
653
861
69
112
680
913
75
119
720
.6
-1.8
-1.4
1.3
3.1
1.4
2.0
3.7
Leather and leather products................................................................
Footwear except rubber and plastic .................................................
Luggage, handbags, and leather products, n.e.c...............................
31
313,4
311,5,6,7,9
296
-
246
161
85
152
96
56
99
61
38
98
58
40
103
58
45
-3.1
-3.6
-2.3
-1.5
-2.0
-1.0
4,541
2,678
5,135
3,021
5,244
3,041
5,410
3,315
5,719
3,500
5,903
3,568
.6
1.0
2.6
2.4
Transportation and public utilities ................................................................
Transportation ..........................................................................................
42
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
40-42,44-49
40-42,44-47
-
-
.2
Table 6.
Continued— Employment by selected industry, 1972, 1979, 1986, and projected to 2000
Industry
Standard
Industrial
Classification
Annual rate of
change, 1986-20001
(percent)
Employment
(thousands)
Projected, 2000
1972
1979
1986
Low
Moderate
High
Employment
Output
1,309
1,121
188
805
493
220
92
331
282
1,382
174
570
158
126
1,279
1,041
238
924
582
216
126
167
300
1,627
146
690
217
153
1,130
845
284
965
602
200
164
190
308
1,713
159
721
227
164
1,222
920
302
998
613
210
175
203
315
1,740
167
725
230
172
1,320
978
342
1,015
621
214
180
-3.9
.6
1.5
- .6
1.7
2.6
1.9
- .3
- .9
1.7
.6
.4
- .2
2.4
.7
1.3
2.2
1.7
3.7
5.9
3.0
3.9
3.9
3.9
2.1
2.4
1.5
3.4
4,113
353
869
536
225
5,204
439
1,261
648
225
5,735
431
1,445
757
200
7,015
479
1,988
876
187
7,266
496
2,059
907
194
7,361
502
2,086
919
197
1.7
1.0
2.6
1.3
- .2
2.7
-
52-59
531
541
551,2
554
56
58
591
594
11,835
1,706
1,578
814
649
784
2,860
452
375
14,989
1,878
2,002
881
577
949
4,513
489
569
17,845
1,978
2,523
947
596
1,070
5,879
563
746
21,795
2,261
2,984
906
387
1,292
8,084
647
1,038
22,702
2,364
3,121
947
502
1,351
8,365
677
1,085
23,079
2,404
3,174
963
412
1,374
8,501
688
1,103
1.7
1.3
1.5
.0
-1.2
1.7
2.6
1.3
2.7
2.4
Finance, insurance, and real estate ............................................................
Banking ....................................................................................................
Credit agencies and investment offices ...................................................
Security and commodity brokers and exchanges....................................
Insurance carriers.....................................................................................
Insurance agents, brokers, and service ...................................................
Real estate................................................................................................
60-67
60
61,7
62
63
64
65,6
3,907
1,115
458
203
1,054
301
776
4,975
1,499
665
204
1,200
430
977
6,297
1,736
1,023
392
1,364
581
1,200
7,508
1,930
1,364
517
1,454
767
1,476
7,917
1,998
1,518
526
1,532
795
1,548
8,159
2,060
1,610
543
1,566
808
1,572
1.7
1.0
2.9
2.1
.8
2.3
1.8
2.6
2.8
3.1
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.5
Services2 .......................................................................................................
Hotels and other lodging places ..............................................................
Personal services.....................................................................................
Laundry, cleaning, and shoe repair .....................................................
Personal services, n.e.c..........................................................................
Beauty and barber shops......................................................................
Funeral service and crematories ..........................................................
70-86,89
70
72
721,5
722,9
723,4
726
12,117
813
912
-
16,768
1,060
904
367
150
319
69
22,531
1,401
1,104
393
267
367
77
30,545
1,848
1,298
400
406
410
82
32,545
1,971
1,357
434
411
423
89
33,708
2,061
1,391
445
422
430
94
2.7
2.5
1.5
.7
3.1
1.0
1.0
3.2
1.9
1.6
.8
3.2
.7
1.1
2,906
146
487
527
271
-
4,781
202
681
1,017
591
788
445
208
174
677
7,593
284
995
1,730
1,090
1,186
658
314
199
1,137
8,121
302
1,020
1,851
1,203
1,301
687
330
244
1,184
8,533
310
1,046
1,908
1,281
1,394
709
396
257
1,233
3.9
2.9
2.9
4.4
5.2
3.6
3.1
3.4
2.4
4.1
4.2
3.5
3.2
3.6
5.0
4.3
3.9
4.1
4.1
4.0
575
120
455
282
79
29
174
762
161
601
320
104
28
188
919
210
709
352
125
26
201
1,016
233
783
397
142
28
226
1,040
241
799
416
146
29
240
2.1
2.7
1.9
1.5
2.3
.0
1.3
2.2
2.6
2.2
1.2
.8
- .2
1.6
227
915
121
95
99
600
207
1,143
159
72
126
785
248
1,204
165
82
133
824
266
1,235
167
85
143
840
.6
2.0
2.2
-1.1
2.1
2.3
2.0
4.6
4.0
.6
1.5
-
228
712
85
110
72
445
3,412
694
591
1,980
146
4,993
1,150
951
2,608
284
6,551
1,672
1,250
3,038
591
9,369
2,901
1,992
3,438
1,038
9,774
3,061
2,097
3,513
1,103
10,039
3,137
2,124
3,611
1,167
2.9
3.4
3.7
3.6
2.8
4.4
271
958
-
460
1,090
3,571
393
303
748
1,428
4,296
528
256
354
1,191
1,532
5,326
755
1,267
1,620
5,569
790
337
478
1,317
1,666
5,745
798
389
495
40
41
42
44
45
4722
471,2,3,4,8
48
481,2,9
483
49
491,493 pt.
492, 493 pt.
494-7, 493 pt.
582
276
1,124
212
348
1,152
1,009
143
711
420
216
75
Wholesale tra d e ............................................................................................
Motor vehicles and automotive equipment...............................................
Machinery, equipment, and supplies .......................................................
Groceries and related products................................................................
Petroleum and products ...........................................................................
50,1
501
508
514
517
Retail trade ..................................................................................................
Department stores ...................................................................................
Grocery stores ..........................................................................................
New and used car dealers ......................................................................
Gasoline service stations .........................................................................
Apparel and accessory store s..................................................................
Eating and drinking places .......................................................................
Drug and proprietary stores......................................................................
Miscellaneous shopping goods s to re s .....................................................
Railroad transportation .........................................................................
Local and interurban passenger transit ...............................................
Trucking and warehousing....................................................................
Water transportation .............................................................................
Air transportation...................................................................................
Arrangement of passenger transportation.............................................
Miscellaneous transportation services .................................................
Communications........................................................................................
Communications except broadcasting .................................................
Radio and television broadcasting ........................................................
Public utilities............................................................................................
Electric utilities including combined services.........................................
Gas utilities including combined services .............................................
Water and sanitation including combined services ..............................
-
64
1,790
121
336
221
107
-
Business services.....................................................................................
Advertising ............................................................................................
Services to dwellings and other buildings.............................................
Personnel supply services....................................................................
Computer and data processing services...............................................
Research, management, and consulting services................................
Detective and protective services..........................................................
Equipment rental and leasing................................................................
Photocopying, commercial art, photofinishing......................................
Credit reporting and business services, n.e.c........................................
73
731
734
736
737
7391,2,7
7393
7394
7332,3,95
732,5; 7331,39;
7396,99
Auto repair, services, and garages ..........................................................
Automotive rentals, without drivers........................................................
Automobile parking, repair, and services .............................................
Miscellaneous repair shops......................................................................
Electrical repair shop s...........................................................................
Watch, clock, jewelry, and furniture repair ...........................................
Miscellaneous repair shops and related services ................................
75
751
752,3,4
76
762
763,4
769
399
199
-
Motion pictures..........................................................................................
Amusement and recreation services .......................................................
Theatrical producers and entertainers .................................................
Bowling alleys and billiard establishments ...........................................
Commercial sports ...............................................................................
Amusement and recreation services, n.e.c............................................
78
79
792
793
794
791,9
205
504
-
Health services..........................................................................................
Offices of health practitioners................................................................
Nursing and personal care facilities .....................................................
Hospitals, private...................................................................................
Outpatient facilities and health services, n.e.c.......................................
80
801,2,3,4
805
806
807,8,9
Legal services ..........................................................................................
Educational services.................................................................................
Social, membership, and miscellaneous services....................................
Individual and miscellaneous social services ......................................
Job training and related services ..........................................................
Child day care services.........................................................................
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
81
82
83,4,6,9
832,9
833
3835
-
-
-
-
-
146
556
263
1,339
216
438
-
333
467
4.4
3.8
1.0
4.6
3.8
.9
1.9
2.9
2.0
2.2
“
1.9
-
5.5
2.5
1.8
3.0
2.9
2.6
5.1
43
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
Table 6.
September 1987 •
Projections 2000: Industry Output and Employment
Continued— Employment by selected industry, 1972,1979, 1986, and projected to 2000
Industry
Standard
Industrial
Classification
Employment
(thousands)
Projected, 2000
1972
1979
1986
Low
Residential care ...................................................................................
Museums and noncommercial organizations, n.e.c...............................
Business and professional associations...............................................
Labor, civic, and social organizations...................................................
Engineering and architectural services.................................................
Accounting, auditing, and services, n.e.c...............................................
Government..................................................................................................
Federal Government.................................................................................
Federal enterprises...............................................................................
U.S. Postal Service ...........................................................................
Federal electric utilities.......................................................................
Federal Government enterprises, n.e.c...............................................
Federal general government ................................................................
State and local government.......................................................................
State and local enterprises ..................................................................
Local government passenger tran sit.................................................
State and local electric utilities ..........................................................
State and local government enterprises, n.e.c....................................
State and local general government......................................................
State and local government hospitals...............................................
State and local government education .............................................
State and local general government, n.e.c.........................................
836
84,865,9,892
861,2
863,4
891
893,9
_
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
1As projected in the moderate alternative.
Annual rate of
change, 1986-20001
(percent)
Moderate
339
-
319
263
135
485
678
458
500
334
144
507
887
673
519
355
159
531
936
711
532
357
165
537
957
742
3.5
2.2
1.2
.7
2.3
3.2
13,333
2,684
888
698
29
161
1,796
10,649
547
100
59
388
1 .102
926
5,550
3,625
15,947
2,773
876
661
52
163
1,897
13,174
733
130
63
540
12,441
1,108
6,486
4,847
16,711
2,899
1,000
789
39
172
1,899
13,812
831
174
69
588
12,981
1,047
7,058
4,876
17,900
2,900
1,001
832
32
137
1,899
15,000
973
207
69
697
14,027
1,047
7,674
5,306
18,329
3,000
1,031
845
33
153
1,969
15,329
1,004
212
75
716
14,325
1,070
7,842
5,413
18,897
3,093
1,087
886
37
164
2,006
15,804
1,023
218
79
726
14,781
1,103
8,085
5,593
.7
.2
.2
.5
-1.3
- .8
.3
.7
1.4
1.4
.6
1.4
.7
.2
.8
.7
-
Output
4.9
3.4
2.2
1.9
2.9
3.5
1.5
1.3
2.7
3.0
1.4
2.5
.7
1.7
1.5
1.0
1.4
1.7
1.7
2.6
1.6 '
1.7
3 Does not meet usual publication criteria of bls Current Employment Statistics survey.
n e c = not elsewhere classified,
E m p lo y m e n t a n d E arnin g s.
Note: Dash indicates data not available.
Digitized for44
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Employment
202
195
118
464
515
316
-
2 Excludes Standard Industrial Classifications 074,5,8 (agricultural services) and 99 (nonclassifiable establishments). Therefore the estimates are hot exactly comparable with data published in
In addition to offices of health practitioners, the outpa
tient facilities and health services not elsewhere classified
industry is also expected to show enormous growth. The
absolute increases in numbers of jobs are not projected to be
as great as for doctors’ offices because outpatient facilities
and miscellaneous health services is a smaller industry, but
the 4.6-percent annual rate of gain ranks it as the second
fastest growing industry in the economy in terms of employ
ment. This industry includes such services as group health
associations ( g h a ’ s ) , health maintenance organizations
( h m o ’ s ) , alcohol and drug treatment centers, family plan
ning clinics, home health agencies, and visiting nurse asso
ciations. Clearly, these services will balloon as the preferred
method of treatment shifts from lengthy hospital care to
outpatient or home care.
Nursing and personal care facilities are also expected to
benefit from the shift away from hospital treatment. Nursing
homes will see very rapid growth through 2000 as the pop
ulation aged 85 and over (the primary age group for nursing
home care) rises from 2.7 million in 1985 (or 1.1 percent of
the total population) to 4.9 million in 2000 (1.8 percent of
total population). Personal care facilities will grow faster
than nursing homes; the former include extended care facil
ities, convalescent homes, and hospices. Jobs in the nursing
home and personal care sector as a whole are projected to
grow 3.8 percent a year, with employment rising to a level
of 2.1 million by 2000.
Hospitals are projected to show some job gains over the
1986-2000 period, despite the shift to outpatient care. The
increase in the number of persons over age 65, plus rapid
High
advances in new complex technologies, will cause an ex
pansion in hospitals. At 1.0 percent a year, however, pro
jected job growth in private hospitals is just a fraction of the
rate expected for other health sectors through the year 2000
and of the historical rate of gain in the industry. Still, almost
500.000 new jobs are expected to be added in hospitals over
the projection period.
Personal, repair, and recreation services. Traditional
personal and repair service industries are projected to have
only very modest output growth through the 1990’s, but the
newer types of services in the industry termed “personal
services not elsewhere classified” are projected to have
fairly good growth, increasing faster than g n p . This catch
all group includes health, beauty, and reducing clubs or
salons; dating services; tax return preparation services (non
accountants); convenience services for two-earner families;
and a wide variety of other personal services. Payroll em
ployment in this industry is projected to rise by 144,000, to
411.000 by 2000. This industry also includes many selfemployed workers; their numbers are projected at about
110.000 in 2000.
The small gains expected in the laundry and cleaning
industry reflect some growth for industrial launderers, as
more hospitals and institutions contract out laundry opera
tions. Consumer demand for commercial laundry and dry
cleaning services is expected to remain rather flat.
In contrast, consumers are expected to have high levels of
demand for amusement and recreation services. Output of
the industry “amusements and recreation, not elsewhere
classified,” is projected to grow more than twice as fast as
gnp (5.5 percent a year from 1986 to 2000), and 224,000
wage and salary jobs are expected to be added. The output
growth rate ranks this sector among the top five of all the
industries studied. Included are golf courses, membership
sports and recreation clubs, tennis and racquetball facilities,
swimming pools, gyms, ski lifts, gambling establishments,
recreational classes or instruction, and numerous other
recreational services.
The rate of output growth projected for theatrical produc
ers and entertainers also is very high— 4.0 percent a year—
reflecting the demand for more programming for expanding
cable tv networks.
Social, membership, and miscellaneous services. Several
of the social service industries are expected to have employ
ment increases of more than 100,000 between 1986 and
2000. The number of jobs in the individual and miscella
neous social services sector, for example, is projected to rise
from 528,000 in 1986 to 790,000 in 2000. This industry
includes individual and family counseling, disaster relief,
adult day care, senior citizens associations, fundraising or
ganizations, and other related social services. Employment
growth in the industry averaged 4.3 percent a year over the
1979-86 period. Thus, while projected growth is large in
absolute numbers, the 2.9-percent annual increase projected
represents a slowdown from historical trends.
Residential care is another social service industry pro
jected to show a large employment gain, 200,000 more jobs
by 2000. This industry provides residential care where med
ical care is not a major element, as in group homes, halfway
houses, and rehabilitation centers. The rising demand for
these services reflects the growing number of elderly who
may need to reside in a home for the aged but who do not
require intensive nursing care, as well as an increase in the
use of drug and alcohol residential treatment centers.
Government. Total public employment is projected to rise
by 1.6 million between 1986 and 2000, with almost all of
the increase occurring in State and local governments. Fed
eral employment is expected to remain virtually level, as it
has for most of the 1970’s and 1980’s.
The job gains in State and local governments reflect an
additional 784,000 workers in education and 537,000 in
other governmental functions except hospitals. The rising
level of educational staff occurs as the population of elemen
tary and secondary school-age children, offspring of the
baby-boom cohort, edges up. The following tabulation pre
sents estimates of the school-age population for selected
years 1970-85, and projected to 2000 (in millions):
Population
5
to 13
14 to 17
1 9 7 0 ....................
3 6 .7
1 9 7 5 ....................
1 9 8 0 ....................
1 9 8 5 ....................
3 3 .9
31.1
3 0 .1
1 6 .1
14.9
P r o je c te d 2 0 0 0
3 4 .4
1 5 .4
1 5 .9
1 7 .1
Other increases are related to the assumption that some past
cutbacks in local government services will be reversed in
coming years.
Alternatives
This article has focused on the results of the moderate
growth projection scenario, but two alternatives were also
prepared. The alternatives show the effects of changes in
some of the key assumptions of the macroeconomic model
discussed by Norman C. Saunders elsewhere in this issue.
In the low-growth scenario, g n p expands by only 1.6 per
cent a year, 1986-2000, compared to 2.4 percent in the
moderate case, and the unemployment rate in 2000 reaches
7.7 percent, versus 6.0 percent in the moderate scenario. In
the high-growth scenario, g n p grows by 3.0 percent a year,
and the unemployment rate falls to 4.5 percent.
Because of the sluggish growth and high unemployment
in the low scenario, total employment only rises to 126.4
million, compared to 133 million in the moderate case dis
cussed in this article. Manufacturing employment falls pro
portionately more in the low scenario because of slower
growth in equipment purchases and an actual decrease in
nonresidential construction. Durable goods employment is
10 percent less than in the moderate case; nondurables em
ployment, 3 percent less; and nonmanufacturing employ
ment, about 5 percent less.
In the high scenario, employment rises to 137.5 million
in the year 2000, 4.5 million more than in the moderate
case. Again, more of the difference is concentrated in man
ufacturing. Employment in that sector is 5 percent higher
than in the moderate scenario, while nonmanufacturing em
ployment is 3 percent higher.
\Z\
FOOTNOTES
1 Annual Energy Outlook 1986 (U .S. Department of Energy, Energy
Information Administration, 1986).
2 Marcus E. Einstein and James C. Franklin, “Computer manufacturing
enters a new era o f growth,” Monthly Labor Review , September 1986, pp.
9 -1 6 .
3 Steven E. Haugen, “The employment expansion in retail trade, 1973—
8 5 ,” Monthly Labor Review , August 1986, pp. 9 -1 6 .
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4 Includes voluntary part-time employed, part time for economic reasons
who usually work part time, and unemployed looking for part-time work.
For more information, see Thomas J. Nardone, “ Part-time workers: who/
are they?” Monthly Labor Review , February 1986, pp. 13-19.
5 Max L. Carey and Kim L. Hazelbaker, “Employment growth in the
temporary help industry,” Monthly Labor Review, April 1986, pp. 3 7 -4 4 .
45
Projections 2000
A look at occupational employment
trends to the year 2000
High-skill job groups are projected to continue
pacing occupational growth as groups
requiring the most education and training
are estimated to grow faster than average
George T. S ilvestri and John M. Lukasiewicz
The Nation’s economy is projected to generate more than 21
million jobs between 1986 and 2000. While a considerable
number, this 19-percent increase is only about half the aver
age annual rate of increase that occurred over the previous
14-year period, 1972 to 1986. (See table 1.) An accompany
ing article by Valerie Personick, pp. 30-45, discusses the
projected changes in the industrial composition of employ
ment. Our article presents the 1986-2000 occupational
projections.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has developed three sets of
occupational projections, with each set tied to the high,
moderate, or low economic and industry employment pro
jections alternatives presented elsewhere in this issue of the
Review. However, the basic changes in the occupational
structure of the economy from 1986 to 2000 among the three
alternatives are similar. Thus, for ease of presentation, we
focus on the moderate alternative, because the discussion
would be similar if either of the other scenarios was high
lighted. The major differences among the alternatives are
discussed briefly at the end of the article.
Broad occupational group changes
The structure of occupational employment over the 1986—
2000 period is expected to shift because the change in total
George T. Silvestri and John M. Lukasiewicz are economists in the Divi
sion o f Occupational Outlook, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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employment will not be evenly distributed among the broad
occupational groups. For example, each of the three broad
occupational groups with the most highly trained workers in
terms of educational attainment (executive, administrative,
and managerial workers; professional workers; and techni
cians and related support workers) is projected to continue
to grow more rapidly than the average for total employment.
Collectively, these three groups, which accounted for 25
percent of total employment in 1986, are expected to ac
count for almost 40 percent of the total job growth between
1986 and 2000. In contrast, many factors, such as office and
factory automation, changes in consumer demand, and im
port substitution are expected to lead to relatively slow
growth or a decline for occupational groups requiring less
education (administrative support workers, including cleri
cal; farming, forestry, and fishing workers; and operators,
fabricators, and laborers). The service workers group (ex
cept private household workers), which is expected to grow
at a faster rate than total employment and account for more
of the total growth in employment than any other broad
occupational group, is an important exception to the general
trend, because its educational attainment is not in the high
group. The expected shift away from low-skill jobs to highskill jobs is discussed in greater detail later in this article.
The following discussion on each broad occupational group
is based on data found in table 1. Historical trends in table
1 are based on data from the Current Population Survey,
Table 1. Employment by broad occupational group, 1986 and projected to 2000 moderate alternative, and percent change in
employment for selected periods
[Numbers in thousands]
Projected,
2000
1986
Occupation
Percent change
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Total employment ............................................................................................
111,623
100.0
133,030
100.0
20.3
10.9
33.4
19.2
Executive, administrative, and managerial workers ...................................................
Professional workers ..................................................................................................
Technicians and related support workers ..................................................................
Salesworkers...............................................................................................................
Administrative support workers, including clerical .....................................................
Private household w o rkers..........................................................................................
Service workers, except private household workers...................................................
Precision production, craft, and repair workers ..........................................................
Operators, fabricators, and laborers ...........................................................................
Farming, forestry, and fishing workers ......................................................................
10,583
13,538
3,726
12,606
19,851
981
16,555
13,924
16,300
3,556
9.5
12.1
3.3
11.3
17.8
.9
14.8
12.5
14.6
3.2
13,616
17,192
5,151
16,334
22,109
955
21,962
15,590
16,724
3,393
10.2
12.9
3.9
12.3
16.6
.7
16.5
11.7
12.6
2.6
34.9
29.8
39.9
24.3
23.5
-23.0
25.7
21.7
8.7
-5.1
28.7
21.4
24.7
24.4
9.5
-11.5
16.0
6.5
-9.2
-5.6
73.7
57.5
74.5
54.6
35.2
-31.9
45.9
29.6
-1.3
-10.4
28.7
27.0
38.2
29.6
11.4
-2 .7
32.7
12.0
2.6
-4.6
Note: Estimates of 1986 employment, the base year for the 2000 projections, were derived
primarily from data collected in the Occupational Employment Statistics surveys. The 1972-79,
whereas projected trends are based on data from the Na
tional Industry-Occupation Matrix. In order to compare data
from both sources in table 1, the occupational categories
from the Current Population Survey were selected. Table 8
also is based on the Current Population Survey occupational
categories and data. In all other tables in this article, the
National Industry-Occupation Matrix occupational classifi
cation and data were used.
Employment of executive, administrative, and manage
rial workers is expected to increase by more than 3 million
jobs from 1986 to 2000 due to the ever-increasing complex
ity of business operations and the large employment gains in
the wholesale and retail trade and services sectors. The rate
of increase for this group is expected to be about 29 percent,
or about one and one-half the average for all occupations.
The relative growth rate for this occupational group is pro
jected to be less than it was from 1972 to 1986 when exec
utive, administrative, and managerial workers grew twice as
fast as did total employment.
The number of professional workers is expected to con
tinue to grow more rapidly than total employment, or by 27
percent, from 1986 to 2000. Employment in many of the
occupations in this group is expected to surge, including the
engineering, computer specialty, and health professional
occupations, which together are expected to account for
more than one-half of the 3.7 million new professional jobs
added by the year 2000.
Employment in the technicians and related support work
ers category is projected to grow faster than any other major
occupational group (38 percent), or more than twice as fast
as total employment. The technicians occupational group
also was the fastest growing group from 1972 to 1986. Jobs
for health technologists and technicians are expected to ac
count for 47 percent of the 1.4 million new technician jobs
that will be added over the 1986-2000 period.
Employment in the salesworkers group is expected to
increase by 30 percent, or by 3.7 million jobs, due mainly
to the large employment gains in wholesale and retail trade
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1972-79
1979-86
1972-86
1986-2000
1979-86, and 1972-86 rates of change were derived from the Current Population Survey data
because comparable Occupational Employment Statistics survey data were not available for 1972
and 1979.
where salesworkers are concentrated. The share of total
employment accounted for by these workers is projected to
increase from 11.3 percent of the total in 1986 to 12.3
percent by the year 2000. This is the only major occupa
tional group that grew as fast during the 1979-86 period as
it did from 1972 to 1979, even though total employment had
grown only half as fast in the latter period.
The number of administrative support workers, including
clerical, which grew as fast as total employment in the
1972-86 period, is projected to increase significantly more
slowly than the average for total employment from 1986 to
2000, or by only 11 percent. This slowing of growth was
evident in the 1979-86 period when this occupational group
grew slightly slower than the average for total employment;
in the previous 7 years it had grown slightly faster than total
employment. Although this group is projected to add 2
million jobs by the year 2000, its share of total employment
is expected to decline from 17.8 percent to 16.6 percent
because of its slow growth. Office automation and other
technological changes are expected to cause employment to
decline in several detailed occupations within this group,
such as typists and word processors. Employment in several
clerical occupations, however, is projected to grow faster
than the average for total employment due to rapid growth
in the industries that employ clerical workers such as hotel
desk clerks and new account clerks in banking. Other occu
pations in this group are also expected to be favorably af
fected by technological change, such as the computer and
peripheral equipment operators group, which is expected to
grow rapidly due to the ever-increasing use of computers
throughout the economy.
Employment in the service workers group (except private
household workers) is expected to rise faster than the aver
age for total employment, increasing by more than 5 million
jobs— more than any other broad occupational group from
1986 to 2000. The projected growth rate of 33 percent for
1986-2000 is faster than total employment and, conse
quently, the share of total employment accounted for by
47
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
September 1987 •
Projections 2000: Occupational Employment
Table 2. Projected 1986-2000 employment change (number and percent) for wage and salary workers, by major industry
division and for self-employed and unpaid family workers, in major occupational groups, moderate trend
Occupation
All occupations
(thousands)........
Managerial and
managementrelated occupations.
Engineers, architects,
and surveyors........
Natural, computer, and
mathematical
scientists ...............
Teachers, librarians,
and counselors . . . .
Health diagnosing and
treating occupations
Other professional
specialists .............
Technician
occupations ..........
Marketing and sales
occupations ...........
Administrative support
occupations,
including clerical . . .
Service occupations ..
Agriculture, forestry,
fishing, and related
occupations ...........
Blue-collar worker
supervisors.............
Construction trades and
extractive workers ..
Mechanics, Installers,
and repairers ........
Precision production
and plant systems
occupations ...........
Machine setters,
set-up operators,
operators, and
tenders...................
Assemblers and other
handwork
occupations ...........
Transportation and
material moving
machine and
vehicle operators ..
Helpers, laborers, and
material movers,
hand.......................
Total,
all
classes
of
workers
Total,
wage
and
salary
workers
21,407
20,221
149
-5 8
891
-830
475
6,388
1,620
10,774
811
1,185
3,033
2,677
14
-2
111
85
76
619
479
1,128
167
356
12
165
16
17
7
213
36
25
Agri
culture
Mining
Construc
tion
Manu
facturing
Transportation,
communications,
and public
utilities
Wholesale
and retail
trade
Finance,
insurance,
and real
estate
Services
Govern
ment
Self-employed
and unpaid
family
workers
495
470
4
-0
339
324
3
-1
1
23
12
25
41
199
21
15
772
751
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
743
6
21
1,081
1,072
7
0
0
0
0
29
1
1,013
22
9
967
811
3
0
0
28
29
46
30
582
93
156
1,403
1,374
4
4
70
28
86
51
1,070
63
28
3,728
3,168
4
1
13
17
76
2,408
286
357
5
560
2,258
5,381
2,327
5,205
5
2
- 19
- 1
0
2
-2 3 8
-3 1
-2 7
37
287
2,251
551
74
1,815
2,596
-4 5
276
-6 9
176
-1 6 3
194
83
0
2
-8
1
21
26
55
15
-3 5 7
-2
144
138
3
-2
52
-5 8
15
41
4
65
17
5
704
537
1
-5
437
-1 8
- 14
19
11
66
39
167
687
677
3
-4
64
-7
-2
217
52
317
37
11
134
111
0
-2
26
-5 2
1
48
2
74
15
23
-1 9 4
-2 0 1
3
-2
5
-3 1 9
0
21
1
89
1
7
- 113
-1 0 8
1
0
11
-2 0 3
2
32
0
47
2
500
443
6
-1 2
62
-1 3 7
193
157
4
141
30
249
251
4
-7
90
- 147
32
65
2
204
9
service workers is expected to jump from 14.8 percent in
1986 to 16.5 percent in 2000. Most of the large projected
employment gain in this occupational group is concentrated
in food service and health service occupations.
The number of private household workers is projected to
decline by 2.7 percent. This is more in line with the recent
moderate decline that occurred between 1979 and 1986 than
it is with the rapid declines that occurred from 1972 to 1979
and in earlier periods.
The number of precision production, craft, and repair
workers is projected to increase more slowly than the aver
age for total employment, or by only 12 percent. From 1972
to 1986, employment in this group grew about as fast as the
average for total employment, although during the latter part
of the 1979-86 period, its employment growth was slower
than that for the total economy. Within this group, the rate
of growth for the construction trades is projected to be close
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-4
57
-2
to the 19-percent growth rate of the overall economy. This
increase is expected to be offset, however, by occupations
concentrated in manufacturing that are expected to grow
more slowly than the average for total employment or to
decline over the 1986-2000 period. Employment decreases
are expected in occupations such as precision food, metal,
printing, textile, and apparel workers.
Employment in the operators, fabricators, and laborers
group is projected to be at virtually the same level in 2000
as it was in 1986. The stable employment level for this
occupational group is a reversal of the decline of more than
9 percent that this group suffered from 1979 to 1986, which
offset an approximately equal increase from 1972 to 1979.
Its share of total employment is expected to decrease signif
icantly from 14.6 percent to 12.6 percent. The drop in
manufacturing employment and increasing factory automa
tion are largely responsible for the lack of employment
Table 2. Continued— Projected 1986-2000 employment change (number and percent) for wage and salary workers, by major
industry division and for self-employed and unpaid family workers, in major occupational groups, moderate trend
Occupation
All occupations
(percent).............
Managerial and mana
gement-related
occupations ...........
Engineers,
architects, and
surveyors...............
Natural, computer, and
mathematical
scientists ...............
Teachers, librarians,
and counselors . . . .
Health diagnosing and
treating occupations
Other professional
specialists .............
Technician
occupations ...........
Marketing and sales
occupations ...........
Administrative support
occupations,
including clerical . . .
Service occupations ..
Agriculture, forestry,
fishing, and related
occupations ...........
Blue-collar worker
supervisors.............
Construction trades and
extractive workers ..
Mechanics, installers,
and repairers .........
Precision production
and plant systems
occupations.............
Machine setters, set-up
operators, operators,
and tenders ...........
Assemblers and other
handwork
occupations ...........
Transportation and
material moving
machine and
vehicle operators ..
Helpers, laborers, and
material movers,
hand.......................
Total,
all
classes
of
workers
Total,
wage
and
salary
workers
19.2
19.8
28.7
Agri
culture
Wholesale
and retail
trade
Finance,
insurance,
and real
estate
Self-employed
and unpaid
family
workers
Construc
tion
9.4
-7.4
18.2
-4.4
9.1
27.1
25.7
33.8
9.4
12.2
28.9
36.9
-2.7
23.7
5.5
18.1
28.8
39.4
47.9
16.7
27.1
31.6
31.6
35.4
-0.4
26.2
24.0
18.9
67.6
54.6
54.5
18.2
31.6
45.9
46.3
33.3
-2.8
47.8
15.3
50.6
80.8
58.6
85.9
13.4
39.8
8.9
10.4
28.3
24.6
15.8
6.1
17.2
-19.6
16.9
2.3
20.0
28.5
34.5
50.2
12.9
3.1
15.6
15.6
7.5
41.7
46.3
32.0
Manu
facturing
Transportation,
communications,
and public
utilities
Mining
Services
Govern
ment
26.2
27.4
27.9
-4.5
13.9
11.0
22.2
30.8
41.1
35.9
13.0
21.4
38.4
38.6
28.8
-6.6
10.4
11.7
17.7
57.1
43.7
52.2
15.2
32.6
29.6
29.3
21.9
11.2
18.8
3.0
29.8
29.3
34.0
46.0
8.5
31.3
11.4
30.7
12.0
31.5
6.6
11.4
-19.6
-14.6
-0.1
5.6
-10.6
-9.2
-2.1
21.0
9.1
39.4
16.6
22.5
29.1
31.4
-1.7
16.8
-16.8
17.2
-4.6
10.0
6.6
-11.5
14.3
-8.3
17.8
32.7
29.1
17.9
12.5
-22.1
7.9
8.2
31.6
-5.0
23.8
-7.3
8.0
25.9
35.2
44.8
14.3
4.1
17.6
17.2
19.9
-2.9
22.0
-6.6
-17.5
28.1
31.5
36.8
12.2
18.8
14.7
15.9
18.8
-7.1
21.9
-0.9
-.3
20.1
34.3
38.6
12.0
2.4
4.4
3.9
14.0
-12.5
20.9
-2.9
.5
13.3
23.4
29.9
9.6
10.5
-3.9
-4.1
16.9
-9.1
19.4
-7.3
1.1
23.5
29.6
26.9
5.2
8.0
-4.2
-4.1
16.6
2.1
26.7
-8.8
9.2
30.9
43.6
41.9
7.6
-4.9
10.4
9.9
16.9
-9.7
18.5
-18.5
15.9
13.5
34.7
24.2
11.8
17.0
5.8
6.0
9.2
-14.3
11.9
-10.3
9.4
8.0
12.3
40.9
3.5
-2.5
Note: Dash indicates division by zero.
growth for this group. Several transportation occupations,
however, are not expected to be affected by these factors,
including the truck and bus drivers and aircraft pilots and
flight engineers occupations.
The number of farming, forestry, and fishing workers is
projected to decrease 5 percent between 1986 and 2000.
This represents a continuation of a very long-term decline,
but nevertheless a slowing of the rate of decline that oc
curred during the previous 14 years.
Trends by industry
Occupational projections were developed through the use
of an industry-occupation employment matrix. The 1986
matrix used as the base year of the projections presents the
occupational structure of 258 detailed industries. These data
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were derived primarily from the Bureau’s Occupational
Employment Statistics Survey, which obtains data on the
occupational staffing patterns of industries.1The 1986 occu
pational structure of each industry was projected to 2000
through analysis of the factors that are expected to change
the structure, such as changes in technology, business prac
tices and methods of operation, and product demand. The
projected structure was then applied to projections of total
employment for each industry described in Personick’s arti
cle. To derive the projections of total employment by occu
pation, the detailed cells of the matrix were aggregated
across all industries.2
Table 2, derived from the National Industry-Occupation
Matrix, shows the absolute and percent changes in employ
ment between 1986 and 2000 for major occupational groups
49
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
September 1987 •
Projections 2000: Occupational Employment
by major industry division. More than 80 percent of the rise
in total employment is projected to occur among wage and
salary workers in wholesale and retail trade and in services.
Increases in the number of marketing and sales and service
workers are expected to account for almost half of the em
ployment gains in these two industry divisions. This is as
one would expect because of the high concentration of these
two groups. What is not so obvious, however, is the impact
that these two divisions may have on other occupational
groups. For example, employment gains in wholesale and
retail trade and services are expected to account for nearly
all of the job growth for the teachers, librarians, and coun
selors occupation and workers in the health diagnosing and
treating occupation;3 82 percent of the growth for the techni
cians occupation; 66 percent of the increase in the scientists
and computer specialists occupation; 65 percent of the rise
in the other professionals occupation; and 58 percent of the
growth in managers. Except for teachers in services, each of
these occupational groups has a projected growth rate that is
faster than that projected for total employment in the trade
and services divisions.
Although most of the total employment change is pro
jected to occur in trade and services, several other industry
divisions have notable changes. Finance, insurance, and
real estate is projected to account for 8 percent of the growth
in total employment or 1.6 million jobs. Most of the growth
in this industry division is expected to occur among workers
in managerial and management-related occupations and
workers in administrative support, including clerical work
ers. The increase in the number of clerical workers is pro
jected to exceed that of managers within the finance,
insurance, and real estate division. However, the overall
rate of growth for clerical occupations is less than that for
managers due to office automation in banking, credit report
ing agencies, and insurance.
Another industry division adding significant numbers of
jobs is construction, which accounts for 4 percent of the
growth in total jobs (891,000). Nearly half of this industry’s
growth is expected to occur among the construction trades
and extractive occupations.
Government (excluding State and local government em
ployees in education and hospitals) is projected to account
for 4 percent of total employment growth (811,000 jobs);
this increase is expected to occur mainly among State and
local government service workers, such as police and fire
fighters. Also noteworthy in government is the projected
loss of 45,000 jobs among administrative support workers,
including clerical. This loss is largely due to projected de
clines in typists, stenographers, payroll and timekeeping
clerks, and statistical clerks.
The manufacturing industry division is projected to de
crease by more than 800,000 jobs. The largest employment
declines in manufacturing are projected to be for machine
setters, set-up operators, operators, and tenders; assemblers
and other handwork occupations; administrative support
Digitized for50
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
workers, including clerical; helpers, laborers, and material
movers, hand; and transportation and material moving
machine and vehicle operators. Many of the detailed occu
pations in these groups are expected to be affected by au
tomation and a decrease in demand for the products of
industries in which they are concentrated because of
changes in consumer tastes, shifts in governmental priori
ties, and increases in foreign competition. Despite the drop
in employment, some occupational groups within manufac
turing are expected to grow. The group with the largest job
increase is engineers (165,000), followed by managers
(85,000) and technicians (70,000).
The agriculture, forestry, and fishing division has a pro
jected increase in employment among wage and salary
workers, but if self-employed agriculture workers are in
cluded, the industry shows a decrease.
The number of self-employed workers and unpaid family
workers combined is projected to increase by 12.2 percent,
from 9.8 million in 1986 to 10.9 million in the year 2000.
This estimate refers to both nonfarm and agricultural indus
tries. All of this growth is expected to occur among selfemployed workers, because jobs for unpaid family workers
are projected to decline by a quarter of a million. For
self-employed workers and unpaid family workers com
bined, sales occupations are expected to account for
560,000 of the total increase of 1.2 million jobs. The occu
pational group expected to add the next largest number of
self-employed and unpaid family worker jobs is managers
and management-related workers (356,000), followed by
service workers (176,000), and construction trades and ex
tractive workers (167,000).
Trends for occupational clusters
The Bureau has developed projections for 480 detailed
occupations, which are grouped into clusters that conform to
the Standard Occupational Classification system. (See
table 3.) These clusters are discussed in terms of employ
ment change, factors affecting change, and significant de
tailed occupational components. The occupational groups in
this section below are based on the occupational classifica
tion used in the National Industry-Occupation Matrix. They
differ somewhat from previously discussed groups based on
the Current Population Survey, which is the only source of
comparable occupational employment data for the entire
1972-86 period.
Managerial and management-related occupations.
Several managerial occupations are expected to grow
rapidly from 1986 to 2000 due to the increasing complexity
of business operations and the large employment gains in
trade and service industries where, because of small firm
size, a higher than average proportion of employment is in
management occupations. For example, the number of em
ployment interviewers, private or public employment serv
ice, is projected to increase by 71 percent, largely as a result
Table 3.
Civilian employment in occupations with 25,000 workers or more, actual 1986 and projected to 2000
[Numbers in thousands]
Total employment
Occupation
1986-2000 employment change
Projected, 2000
Number
Percent
1986
Low
Moderate
High
Low
Moderate
High
Low
Moderate
High
Total, all occupations..........................................................................................
111,623
126,432
133,030
137,533
14,809
21,407
25,910
13
19
23
Managerial and management-related occupations.......................................................
Managerial and administrative occupations ..............................................................
Education administrators.......................................................................................
Financial m anagers................... ............................................................................
Food service and lodging managers ....................................................................
General managers and top executives..................................................................
Marketing, advertising, and public relations managers ........................................
Personnel, training, and labor relations managers ...............................................
Postmasters and mail superintendents..................................................................
Property and real estate managers ......................................................................
Public administration chief executives, legislators, and general administrators . . .
Purchasing managers ............................................................................................
10,583
7,369
288
638
509
2,383
323
151
28
128
66
230
12,900
8,939
316
747
628
2,820
402
183
29
166
73
248
13,616
9,441
325
792
663
2,965
427
194
30
178
75
260
14,105
9,780
336
824
685
3,052
444
201
31
184
77
266
2,316
1,570
28
109
120
437
80
32
2
38
7
18
3,033
2,071
37
154
154
582
105
43
2
50
9
30
3,521
2,411
48
185
176
669
122
50
4
56
11
36
22
21
10
17
24
18
25
21
7
30
11
8
29
28
13
24
30
24
32
28
8
39
14
13
33
33
17
29
35
28
38
33
14
44
17
16
Management support occupations.............................................................................
Accountants and auditors .................................... ..................... .......................
Claims examiners, property and casualty insurance.............................................
Inspectors and compliance officers, except construction......................................
Construction and building inspectors ....................................................................
Cost estimators......................................................................................................
Employment interviewers, private or public employment service.........................
Loan officers and counselors.................................................................................
Management analysts............................................................................................
Personnel, training, and labor relations specialists ...............................................
Purchasing agents, except wholesale, retail, and farm products .........................
Tax examiners, collectors, and revenue agents ...................................................
Underwriters ...........................................................................................................
Wholesale and retail buyers, except farm products...............................................
3,214
945
34
125
50
157
75
98
126
230
188
57
99
192
3,961
1,251
43
137
54
180
122
123
155
264
181
65
127
200
4,175
1,322
45
142
55
188
129
131
165
278
193
67
134
209
4,324
1,371
46
146
57
197
134
137
173
288
200
69
136
213
747
306
9
12
4
23
47
26
29
34
-7
8
28
8
962
376
11
17
5
31
54
33
40
49
5
10
34
17
1,110
426
12
21
7
39
58
39
47
58
12
12
37
21
23
32
27
9
8
15
62
26
23
15
-3
13
28
4
30
40
33
13
11
20
71
34
31
21
3
17
34
9
35
45
36
17
14
25
77
40
38
25
7
20
37
11
Engineers, architects, and surveyors ...........................................................................
Engineers...................................................................................................................
Aeronautical and astronautical engineers..............................................................
Chemical engineers................................................................................................
Civil engineers, including traffic engineers ............................................................
Electrical and electronics engineers......................................................................
Industrial engineers, except safety engineers.......................................................
Mechanical engineers ............................................................................................
Architects, except landscape and m arine..............................................................
Surveyors...............................................................................................................
1,567
1,371
53
52
199
401
117
233
84
94
1,917
1,683
53
57
238
544
140
286
102
108
2,062
1,815
58
60
249
592
152
309
108
113
2,138
1,883
60
64
257
616
158
320
112
117
350
312
0
5
39
143
22
53
18
13
495
444
6
8
50
192
35
76
25
19
571
512
8
11
58
215
41
87
29
22
22
23
1
9
20
36
19
23
22
14
32
32
11
15
25
48
30
33
30
20
36
37
15
21
29
54
35
37
34
24
Natural, computer, and mathematical scientists............................................................
Computer systems analysts, electronic data processing...........................................
Life scientists .............................................................................................................
Biological scientists................................................................................................
Mathematical scientists, actuaries and statisticians .................................................
Operations and systems researchers ......................................................................
Physical scientists......................................................................................................
Chemists.................................................................................................................
Geologists, geophysicists, and oceanographers...................................................
738
331
140
61
48
38
180
86
44
1,014
544
163
72
58
55
194
92
46
1,077
582
170
75
61
59
205
96
50
1,122
607
176
62
63
62
214
95
49
275
212
23
11
11
17
13
5
2
339
251
30
14
14
21
24
10
6
384
276
35
16
16
23
34
15
8
37
64
16
18
22
44
7
6
6
46
76
21
23
29
54
13
11
13
52
83
25
27
33
61
19
17
19
Teachers, librarians, and counselors.............................................................................
Teachers, preschool, kindergarten, and elementary.................................................
Teachers, preschool ..............................................................................................
Teachers, kindergarten and elementary................................................................
Teachers, secondary school .....................................................................................
College and university faculty ...................................................................................
Other teachers and Instructors .................................................................................
Adult and vocational education teachers ..............................................................
Instructors, adult (nonvocational) education .....................................................
Teachers and instructors, vocational education and training ............................
Librarians, archivists, curators, and related workers.................................................
Librarians, professional ..........................................................................................
Counselors.................................................................................................................
4,949
1,702
176
1,527
1,128
754
1,097
427
202
225
144
136
123
5,558
2,011
233
1,778
1,246
703
1,296
489
229
260
159
150
144
5,720
2,066
240
1,826
1,280
722
1,340
509
241
268
165
155
148
5,906
2,131
248
1,883
1,320
745
1,386
529
251
278
170
159
154
610
308
57
251
118
-51
199
62
26
35
15
14
21
772
363
64
299
152
-3 2
243
82
39
43
20
18
25
957
428
72
356
192
-9
289
102
49
53
25
23
32
12
18
33
16
10
-7
18
14
13
16
10
10
17
16
21
36
20
13
-4
22
19
19
19
14
13
21
19
25
41
23
17
-1
26
24
24
24
18
17
26
Health diagnosing and treating occupations ................................................................
Dentists ......................................................................................................................
Dietitians and nutritionists..........................................................................................
Optometrists...............................................................................................................
Pharmacists...............................................................................................................
Physician assistants ..................................................................................................
Physicians and surgeons ..........................................................................................
Registered nurses ....................................................................................................
Therapists .................................................................................................................
Occupational therapists..........................................................................................
Physical therapists ................................................................................................
Recreational therapists ..........................................................................................
Respiratory therapists ............................................................................................
Speech pathologists and audiologists ..................................................................
Veterinarians and veterinary inspectors....................................................................
2,592
151
40
37
151
26
491
1,406
240
29
61
29
56
45
37
3,528
184
52
52
179
39
645
1,951
352
43
109
41
74
58
52
3,674
196
54
55
187
41
679
2,018
366
45
115
43
76
61
54
3,785
203
55
57
191
42
700
2,077
378
46
118
44
78
63
57
935
33
12
15
29
13
154
546
112
14
48
12
17
13
15
1,081
45
14
18
36
15
188
612
126
15
53
14
19
15
17
1,192
52
15
20
41
16
209
671
138
17
57
15
22
18
19
36
22
29
40
19
49
31
39
46
46
79
42
30
29
39
42
30
34
49
24
57
38
44
52
52
87
49
34
34
46
46
34
38
54
27
62
43
48
57
58
94
52
38
39
52
Other professional specialists........................................................................................
Artists and commercial artists ...................................................................................
Designers...................................................................................................................
Musicians...................................................................................................................
Photographers and camera operators ......................................................................
3,692
176
259
189
109
4,421
218
322
218
137
4,660
235
343
231
146
4,842
246
357
239
153
729
43
63
30
28
967
59
84
42
37
1,150
70
97
50
44
20
24
24
16
25
26
34
32
23
33
31
40
38
27
41
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
51
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
Table 3.
September 1987 •
Projections 2000: Occupational Employment
Continued— Civilian employment in occupations with 25,000 workers or more, actual 1986 and projected to 2000
[Numbers in thousands]
1986-2000 employment change
Total employment
Occupation
Number
Projected, 2000
Percent
1986
Low
Moderate
High
Low
Moderate
High
Low
Moderate
High
Photographers .......................................................................................................
Producers, directors, actors, and entertainers ..........................................................
Public relations specialists and publicity w rite rs ........................................................
Radio and tv announcers and newscasters..............................................................
Reporters and correspondents .................................................................................
Writers and editors, including technical writers..........................................................
Economists.................................................................................................................
Psychologists.............................................................................................................
Clergy ........................................................................................................................
Directors, religious activities and education ..............................................................
Recreation workers.....................................................................................................
Social service technicians..........................................................................................
Social workers ...........................................................................................................
Judges, magistrates, and other judicial workers........................................................
Law yers......................................................................................................................
100
73
87
61
75
214
37
110
295
46
164
88
365
38
527
126
87
115
71
84
268
47
140
291
43
190
117
468
46
676
133
97
122
76
88
287
50
148
304
45
196
122
485
47
718
140
103
127
84
93
301
52
153
313
46
202
125
500
48
748
25
15
28
10
9
54
10
30
-4
-3
26
29
103
8
149
33
24
35
15
13
73
13
37
9
-1
33
34
120
9
191
40
30
39
23
19
88
15
43
18
0
38
37
134
10
221
25
20
32
16
12
25
27
27
-1
-7
16
33
28
21
28
33
34
40
24
18
34
34
34
3
-3
20
38
33
23
36
40
41
45
38
25
41
40
39
6
0
23
42
37
27
42
Technician occupations ................................................................................................
Health technicians and technologists.........................................................................
Dental hygienists.....................................................................................................
Emergency medical technicians.............................................................................
Licensed practical nurses .....................................................................................
Medical and clinical lab technologists and technicians .........................................
Medical records technicians...................................................................................
Opticians, dispensing and measuring....................................................................
Radiologic technologists and technicians..............................................................
Surgical technicians ..............................................................................................
3,650
1,598
87
65
631
239
40
50
115
37
4,791
2,171
134
73
835
285
67
69
183
48
5,053
2,261
141
75
869
296
70
72
190
49
5,226
2,326
145
77
891
307
72
74
196
51
1,141
573
47
8
204
46
28
19
67
11
1,403
663
54
10
238
57
30
23
75
12
1,576
728
58
12
260
67
32
24
80
14
31
36
54
12
32
19
69
39
58
30
38
41
63
15
38
24
75
46
65
33
43
46
67
18
41
28
80
49
70
37
Engineering and science technicians and technologists...........................................
Engineering technicians..........................................................................................
Electrical and electronic technicians and technologists ....................................
Drafters....................................................................................................................
Physical and life science technicians, technologists, and mathematical
technicians .........................................................................................................
1,264
689
313
348
1,454
874
428
331
1,549
933
459
354
1,604
964
473
366
190
185
114
-17
285
245
145
5
340
276
160
17
15
27
37
-5
23
35
46
2
27
40
51
5
227
250
262
274
23
35
47
10
15
21
Technicians, except health and engineering and science.........................................
Air traffic controllers................................................................................................
Broadcast technicians ............................................................................................
Computer programmers..........................................................................................
Legal assistants and technicians, except clerical .................................................
Paralegal personnel............................................................................................
Title examiners and searchers ...........................................................................
Technical assistants, library....................................................................................
788
26
27
479
170
61
30
51
1,166
27
31
758
258
118
34
56
1,243
28
33
813
272
125
36
57
1,297
29
37
850
282
130
37
59
377
1
3
279
87
56
5
5
454
2
5
335
102
64
6
7
509
3
9
371
112
68
7
8
48
4
12
58
51
92
15
10
58
8
20
70
60
104
22
13
65
10
34
78
66
112
25
16
Marketing and sales occupations .................................................................................
Cashiers......................................................................................................................
Counter and rental clerks ..........................................................................................
Insurance salesworkers ............................................................................................
Real estate agents and brokers.................................................................................
Brokers, real estate................................................................................................
Sales agents, real esta te ....................................................... ................................
Real estate appraisers ..............................................................................................
Salespersons, retail ...................................................................................................
Securities and financial services salesworkers..........................................................
Stock clerks, sales floor ............................................................................................
Travel agents .............................................................................................................
12,606
2,165
178
463
376
63
313
36
3,579
197
1,087
105
15,522
2,616
221
535
507
86
422
48
4,563
266
1,255
146
16,334
2,740
238
565
542
91
451
51
4,780
279
1,312
154
16,760
2,798
246
581
562
94
468
53
4,871
290
1,333
159
2,916
450
43
73
131
23
108
12
984
69
168
41
3,728
575
60
102
166
28
138
15
1,201
82
225
49
4,153
633
68
118
186
31
155
17
1,291
93
246
53
23
21
24
16
35
36
35
33
28
35
15
39
30
27
34
22
44
45
44
41
34
42
21
46
33
29
38
25
49
49
49
46
36
47
23
51
Administrative support occupations, including clerical .................................................
Adjusters, investigators, and collectors ....................................................................
Adjustments clerks ................................................................................................
Bill and account collectors......................................................................................
Insurance claims and policy processing occupations ...........................................
Insurance adjusters, examiners, and investigators ...........................................
Insurance claims clerks .....................................................................................
Insurance policy processing c le rk s .....................................................................
Welfare eligibility workers and interviewers ..........................................................
19,851
762
136
126
355
119
85
151
86
21,028
852
157
157
367
147
84
136
98
22,109
894
165
167
385
154
88
142
100
22,885
920
170
174
393
158
90
145
103
1,177
90
20
32
13
29
-1
-15
12
2,258
132
29
42
30
36
3
-9
14
3,034
158
34
49
38
39
5
-6
17
6
12
15
25
4
24
-1
-10
14
11
17
21
33
9
30
4
-6
16
15
21
25
39
11
33
6
-4
20
Communications equipment operators.......................................................................
Telephone operators..............................................................................................
Central office operators .....................................................................................
Directory assistance operators...........................................................................
Switchboard operators........................................................................................
365
353
42
32
279
381
369
32
24
313
404
391
34
27
330
422
408
37
28
343
16
15
-10
-8
34
39
38
-8
-6
51
57
55
-5
-4
64
4
4
-25
-24
12
11
11
-18
-18
18
16
16
-13
-12
23
Computer operators and peripheral equipment operators.........................................
Computer operators, except peripheral equipm ent...............................................
Peripheral electronic data processing equipment operators ................................
Duplicating, mail, and other office machine operators .............................................
309
263
46
166
430
364
66
169
457
387
70
178
475
403
73
185
121
101
19
3
148
124
24
12
166
140
26
19
39
39
42
2
48
47
51
7
54
53
57
11
Financial records processing occupations ................................................................
Billing, cost, and rate cle rks ...................................................................................
Billing, posting, and calculating machine operators...............................................
Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks .....................................................
Payroll and timekeeping clerks .............................................................................
General office clerks ..............................................................................................
Information cle rks.......................................................................................................
Hotel desk clerks.....................................................................................................
Interviewing clerks, except personnel and social welfare.......................................
New accounts clerks, banking ...............................................................................
5,093
307
105
2,116
204
2,361
1,111
109
104
94
5,350
298
108
2,085
171
2,688
1,452
146
143
110
5,637
313
114
2,208
180
2,824
1,534
156
150
117
5,832
322
117
2,291
186
2,916
1,587
163
158
122
257
-10
4
-31
-34
327
341
37
39
16
544
5
9
92
-25
462
423
47
46
23
739
14
12
175
-18
554
476
54
54
28
5
-3
4
-1
-16
14
31
34
37
17
11
2
9
4
-12
20
38
43
45
24
15
5
12
8
-9
23
43
49
52
30
Digitized for52
FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table 3.
Continued— Civilian employment in occupations with 25,000 workers or more, actual 1986 and projected to 2000
[Numbers in thousands]
1986-2000 employment change
Total employment
Occupation
Percent
Number
Projected, 2000
1986
Low
Moderate
High
Low
Moderate
High
Low
Moderate
High
Receptionists and information clerks ....................................................................
Reservation and transportation ticket agents and travel clerks..............................
Mail and message distribution workers ....................................................................
Mail clerks, except mail machine operators and postal service ...........................
Messengers ...........................................................................................................
Postal mall carriers ................................................................................................
Postal service clerks ..............................................................................................
682
122
876
136
101
269
370
913
139
924
138
116
288
383
964
146
947
145
123
291
388
997
147
992
150
128
306
408
232
18
48
1
16
18
12
282
24
71
9
22
22
18
315
26
116
14
28
37
37
34
15
5
1
16
7
3
41
20
8
6
22
8
5
46
21
13
10
28
14
10
Material recording, scheduling, dispatching, and distribution occupations...............
Dispatchers.............................................................................................................
Dispatchers, except police, fire, and ambulance ...............................................
Dispatchers, police, fire, and ambulance............................................................
Meter readers, utilities............................................................................................
Order fillers, wholesale and retail sales ................................................................
Procurement clerks ................................................................................................
Production, planning, and expediting clerks ..........................................................
Stock clerks, stockroom, warehouse, or yard .......................................................
Traffic, shipping, and receiving clerks....................................................................
Weighers, measurers, checkers, and samplers, recordkeepers............................
2,173
185
124
61
48
195
41
213
726
548
40
2,151
206
138
67
42
200
33
210
668
557
37
2,264
215
146
69
43
208
35
228
703
585
39
2,330
221
151
71
44
211
37
239
721
604
41
-2 2
21
14
6
-6
5
-7
-3
-5 7
9
-3
91
30
22
8
-5
13
-5
15
-2 3
38
0
157
36
26
10
-4
16
-4
26
-4
56
1
-1
11
11
11
-1 2
3
-1 8
-1
-8
2
-7
4
16
18
13
-1 0
7
-1 3
7
-3
7
-1
7
20
21
16
-7
8
-9
12
-1
10
3
Records processing occupations, except financial ...................................................
Brokerage cle rks ....................................................................................................
File c le rk s ...............................................................................................................
Library assistants and bookmobile drivers ............................................................
Order clerks, materials, merchandise, and service ...............................................
Personnel clerks, except payroll and timekeeping.................................................
Statement c le rk s ....................................................................................................
848
58
242
102
271
119
43
898
73
260
111
263
119
54
939
75
274
114
277
126
57
969
77
283
117
285
130
59
49
15
18
9
-8
0
11
91
16
32
12
6
7
14
121
19
41
16
13
11
16
6
25
8
9
-3
0
26
11
28
13
12
2
6
32
14
32
17
15
5
9
37
Secretaries, stenographers, and typists....................................................................
Secretaries .............................................................................................................
Stenographers ......................................................................................................
Typists and word processors.................................................................................
4,414
3,234
178
1,002
4,413
3,470
123
820
4,648
3,658
128
862
4,813
3,789
133
892
-2
236
-5 5
-182
234
424
-5 0
-140
398
554
-4 6
-110
0
7
-31
-1 8
5
13
-2 8
-1 4
9
17
-2 6
-11
Other clerical and administrative support workers ...................................................
Bank tellers.............................................................................................................
Court clerks.............................................................................................................
Credit checkers......................................................................................................
Customer service representatives, utilities ............................................................
Data entry keyers, except composing....................................................................
Data entry keyers, composing ...............................................................................
First-line supervisors and managers......................................................................
Loan and credit c le rk s ............................................................................................
Real estate clerks ..................................................................................................
Statistical clerks ....................................................................................................
Teacher aides and educational assistants ............................................................
3,732
539
40
41
102
400
29
956
159
26
71
648
4,009
576
49
42
93
315
41
1,106
191
35
49
752
4,206
610
51
45
99
334
43
1,161
207
36
52
773
4,358
635
52
47
104
347
45
1,200
217
37
54
797
277
37
9
1
-9
-8 5
13
150
32
9
-21
104
475
71
10
4
-3
-6 6
15
205
47
10
-1 9
125
627
96
12
6
2
-5 3
17
244
57
11
-1 7
150
7
7
23
3
-9
-21
44
16
20
33
-3 0
16
13
13
26
10
-3
-1 6
51
21
30
39
-2 6
19
17
18
30
15
2
-1 3
58
25
36
42
-2 4
23
Service occupations......................................................................................................
Cleaning and building service occupations, except private household.....................
Housekeepers, institutional ...................................................................................
Janitors and cleaners, including maids and housekeeping cleaners ...................
Pest controllers and assistants .............................................................................
17,536
3,107
123
2,676
50
21,933
3,662
157
3,144
56
22,917
3,819
165
3,280
58
23,532
3,937
170
3,382
59
4,397
555
34
468
6
5,381
712
42
604
8
5,996
830
47
706
10
25
18
28
17
13
31
23
34
23
16
34
27
38
26
19
Food preparation and service occupations................................................................
Chefs, cooks, and other kitchen workers ..............................................................
Cooks, except short order .................................................................................
Bakers, bread and pastry ...............................................................................
Cooks, institution or cafeteria ........................................................................
Cooks, restaurant............................................................................................
Cooks, short order and fast food ......................................................................
Food preparation workers .................................................................................
7,104
2,563
1,023
114
389
520
591
949
9,337
3,299
1,324
155
442
727
748
1,227
9,705
3,427
1,378
162
457
759
775
1,273
9,908
3,501
1,413
165
469
778
788
1,300
2,233
736
301
41
53
207
157
277
2,601
864
355
48
68
240
184
324
2,804
938
390
51
80
259
197
351
31
29
29
36
14
40
27
29
37
34
35
42
17
46
31
34
39
37
38
45
20
50
33
37
Food service occupations .....................................................................................
Bartenders...........................................................................................................
Dining room and cafeteria attendants and barroom helpers..............................
Food counter, fountain, and related w orkers.....................................................
Hosts and hostesses, restaurant, lounge, and coffee shops ............................
Waiters and waitresses .....................................................................................
4,204
396
433
1,500
172
1,702
5,611
530
607
1,879
236
2,360
5,832
553
631
1,949
245
2,454
5,948
566
644
1,985
250
2,503
1,407
134
174
378
64
658
1,628
157
197
449
73
752
1,744
170
211
485
78
801
33
34
40
25
37
39
39
40
46
30
42
44
41
43
49
32
45
47
Health service occupations........................................................................................
Dental assistants....................................................................................................
Medical assistants..................................................................................................
Nursing aides and psychiatric aid e s......................................................................
Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants............................................................
Psychiatric aides ................................................................................................
Pharmacy assistants..............................................................................................
Physical and corrective therapy assistants and aides ...........................................
1,819
155
132
1,312
1,224
88
64
36
2,437
231
239
1,673
1,584
90
77
62
2,549
244
251
1,750
1,658
92
79
65
2,608
250
258
1,786
1,691
95
81
67
618
76
107
361
359
2
13
26
730
88
119
437
433
4
15
29
788
95
126
474
467
7
17
31
34
49
81
28
29
2
20
74
40
57
90
33
35
5
24
82
43
61
96
36
38
8
27
87
Personal service occupations ...................................................................................
Amusement and recreation attendants..................................................................
Baggage porters and bellhops...............................................................................
Barbers...................................................................................................................
Child care workers ................................................................................................
Cosmetologists and related workers......................................................................
Hairdressers, hairstylists, and cosmetologists...................................................
Flight attendants................................ ....................................................................
Social welfare service and home health aides .....................................................
Home health aides..............................................................................................
1,799
184
31
80
589
595
562
80
197
138
2,135
228
39
76
664
666
627
101
320
236
2,259
239
41
81
708
702
662
105
336
249
2,341
246
43
85
739
724
683
106
349
258
336
43
8
-4
75
71
65
21
123
98
460
55
10
1
118
107
99
26
139
111
542
62
12
4
150
129
121
26
152
120
19
24
24
-5
13
12
12
26
63
71
26
30
32
1
20
18
18
32
71
80
30
34
37
5
25
22
22
33
77
87
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
53
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
Table 3.
September 1987 •
Projections 2000: Occupational Employment
Continued— Civilian employment in occupations with 25,000 workers or more, actual 1986 and projected to 2000
[Numbers in thousands]
Total employment
Occupation
1986-2000 employment change
Projected, 2000
Number
Percent
1986
Low
Moderate
High
Low
Moderate
High
Low
Moderate
High
Social welfare service a id e s ...............................................................................
Ushers, lobby attendants, and ticket takers ..........................................................
59
42
84
41
88
46
91
49
25
-1
29
4
32
7
43
-2
49
9
54
16
Private household workers ........................................................................................
Housekeepers and butlers......................................................................................
Child care workers, private household ..................................................................
Cleaners and servants, private household ............................................................
Protective service occupations .................................................................................
Correction officers and jailers.................................................................................
Firefighting occupations..........................................................................................
Firefighters .........................................................................................................
Firefighting and prevention supervisors..............................................................
Police and detectives ............................................................................................
Police and detective supervisors .......................................................................
Police detectives and investigators....................................................................
Police patrol officers............... .............................................................................
Crossing guards ....................................................................................................
Guards ...................................................................................................................
981
34
400
531
2,055
176
279
223
45
489
84
57
349
52
794
883
32
334
501
2,589
231
318
255
51
563
98
65
400
55
1,104
955
35
362
543
2,700
236
325
260
52
576
100
67
409
56
1,177
970
35
367
551
2,813
243
335
268
54
594
103
68
422
58
1,241
-9 8
-2
-6 6
-3 0
534
55
39
32
6
74
14
8
52
3
311
-2 6
1
-3 8
12
645
60
47
37
8
87
17
10
61
4
383
-11
1
-3 3
20
758
67
57
45
9
105
20
12
73
6
447
-1 0
-6
-1 6
-6
26
31
14
14
14
15
17
14
15
5
39
-3
2
-1 0
2
31
34
17
17
17
18
20
17
17
8
48
-2
4
-8
4
37
38
20
20
20
21
23
21
21
11
56
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and related occupations .................................................
Animal caretakers, except fa rm .................................................................................
Gardeners and groundskeepers, except farm ..........................................................
Supervisors, farming, forestry, and agricultural-related occupations .......................
Farm occupations......................................................................................................
Farm workers .........................................................................................................
Nursery workers ....................................................................................................
Farm operators and managers .................................................................................
Farmers .................................................................................................................
Farm managers.......................................................................................................
Fishers, hunters, and trappers...............................................................................
Forestry and logging occupations .............................................................................
Forest and conservation w orkers...........................................................................
Timber cutting and logging occupations................................................................
Falters and buckers ............................................................................................
Logging tractor operators...................................................................................
3,556
80
767
65
986
940
46
1,336
1,182
154
77
139
36
103
36
28
3,229
100
964
59
759
705
54
1,001
810
191
94
128
40
88
29
26
3,393
104
1,005
62
806
750
57
1,051
850
201
97
138
42
96
32
28
3,497
108
1,033
64
837
779
58
1,078
871
207
101
143
43
100
33
29
-327
20
197
-6
-227
-235
8
-335
-372
37
16
-11
4
-1 5
-7
-2
-163
24
238
-3
-180
-190
11
-285
-332
47
20
-2
5
-7
-4
-1
-5 9
28
266
-1
-149
-161
12
-258
-311
53
23
4
7
-3
-3
0
-9
25
26
-9
-2 3
-2 5
18
-2 5
-31
24
21
-8
10
-1 5
-1 8
-8
-5
30
31
-4
-1 8
-2 0
24
-21
-2 8
31
26
-1
15
-7
-11
-2
-2
35
35
-1
-1 5
-1 7
27
-1 9
-2 6
34
30
3
18
-3
-8
1
Blue-collar worker supervisors ......................... ............................................................
1,823
1,854
1,967
2,051
31
144
228
2
8
13
Construction trades and extractive workers..................................................................
Bricklayers and stone masons...................................................................................
Carpenters.................................................................................................................
Carpet installers .........................................................................................................
Concrete and terrazzo finishers.................................................................................
Drywall installers and finishers .................................................................................
Electricians.................................................................................................................
Glaziers .....................................................................................................................
Hard tile setters .........................................................................................................
Highway maintenance workers .................................................................................
Insulation workers......................................................................................................
Painters and paperhangers, construction and maintenance ....................................
Paving, surfacing, and tamping equipment operators...............................................
Pipelayers and pipelaying fitters ...............................................................................
Plasterers ...................................................................................................................
Plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters......................................................................
Roofers .....................................................................................................................
Structural and reinforcing metal workers ..................................................................
Oil and gas extraction occupations ...........................................................................
Roustabouts ...........................................................................................................
4,006
161
1,010
66
118
154
556
47
32
167
62
412
59
52
28
402
142
86
108
56
4,500
180
1,134
78
137
183
617
54
37
184
73
475
67
58
30
452
174
101
103
48
4,710
187
1,192
83
142
191
644
56
39
188
75
502
69
59
31
471
181
104
110
52
4,940
196
1,252
87
149
200
676
58
41
194
79
526
72
62
33
493
190
109
122
57
495
19
124
12
19
29
61
7
6
18
11
63
9
6
2
49
32
14
-5
-8
704
26
182
17
24
37
89
9
8
22
13
90
11
8
3
69
39
17
2
-4
934
36
242
21
31
46
120
11
10
27
17
114
13
10
5
91
48
23
14
1
12
12
12
19
16
19
11
15
19
11
18
15
15
11
8
12
23
17
-5
-1 4
18
16
18
26
20
24
16
19
25
13
22
22
18
15
12
17
28
20
2
-7
23
22
24
31
26
30
22
24
31
16
27
28
23
20
17
23
34
26
13
2
Mechanics, installers, and repairers .............................................................................
Communications equipment mechanics, installers, and repairers............................
Central office and pbx installers and repairers .....................................................
4,678
109
74
5,060
79
52
5,365
87
57
5,547
92
60
382
-3 0
-2 2
687
-2 3
-1 7
869
-1 7
-1 3
8
-2 7
-2 9
15
-21
-2 3
19
-1 6
-1 8
Electrical and electronic equipment mechanics, installers, and repairers.................
Data processing equipment repairers....................................................................
Electrical powerline installers and repairers ..........................................................
Electronic home entertainment equipment repairers.............................................
Electronics repairers, commercial and industrial equipment ................................
Station installers and repairers, telephone ............................................................
Television and cable TV line installers and repairers ...........................................
533
69
108
49
81
58
119
576
117
114
54
97
36
102
614
125
118
59
104
40
108
637
129
121
60
107
42
115
43
48
6
5
17
-2 2
-1 8
81
56
11
10
23
-1 8
-11
105
60
14
12
26
-1 6
-4
8
69
6
11
21
-3 7
-1 5
15
80
10
20
28
-3 2
-9
20
86
13
24
33
-2 8
-4
Machinery and related mechanics, installers, and repairers ....................................
Industrial machinery mechanics.............................................................................
Maintenance repairers, general u tility....................................................................
Millwrights..................................................................................................
1,545
421
1,039
86
1,712
420
1,205
87
1,810
447
1,270
93
1,881
468
1,314
99
167
-1
167
0
265
26
232
7
335
48
275
13
11
0
16
0
17
6
22
8
22
11
26
15
Vehicle and mobile equipment mechanics and repairers .........................................
Aircraft mechanics and engine specialists ............................................................
Aircraft mechanics..............................................................................................
Automotive body and related repairers..................................................................
Automotive mechanics............................................................................................
Bus and truck mechanics and diesel engine specialists .......................................
Farm equipment mechanics...................................................................................
Mobile heavy equipment mechanics, except engines ...........................................
Small engine specialists ........................................................................................
1,559
107
91
214
748
263
52
102
38
1,654
122
104
221
758
308
51
121
45
1,759
129
109
239
808
325
54
127
48
1,806
130
110
246
830
334
55
131
49
94
15
13
7
10
45
0
19
6
200
22
19
25
60
63
2
25
9
247
23
20
31
82
72
3
29
11
6
14
14
3
1
17
0
19
16
13
20
20
12
8
24
4
24
24
16
21
22
15
11
27
6
29
28
54
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table 3.
Continued— Civilian employment in occupations with 25,000 workers or more, actual 1986 and projected to 2000
[Numbers in thousands]
Total employment
Occupation
1986-2000 employment change
Projected, 2000
Number
Percent
1986
Low
Moderate
High
Low
Moderate
High
Low
Moderate
High
Other mechanics, installers, and repairers................................................................
Coin and vending machine servicers and repairers...............................................
Heating, air conditioning and refrigeration mechanics and installers ...................
Home appliance and power tool repairers ............................................................
Office machine and cash register servicers ..........................................................
Precision instrument repairers ...............................................................................
Tire repairers and changers...................................................................................
931
27
222
76
56
49
83
1,039
29
260
79
75
48
98
1,095
30
272
84
78
52
103
1,132
31
283
86
80
54
105
108
2
38
3
19
-1
15
164
3
50
8
22
3
20
200
4
61
10
24
5
22
12
6
17
4
34
-2
18
18
12
22
10
40
5
24
21
15
27
13
43
10
26
Precision production and plant systems occupations...................................................
Precision food workers ..............................................................................................
Bakers, manufacturing............................................................................................
Butchers and meatcutters .....................................................................................
3,066
317
38
248
2,993
312
34
251
3,200
322
35
259
3,329
330
37
264
-7 3
-6
-4
2
134
5
-3
11
263
13
-1
16
-2
-2
-1 0
1
4
2
-7
4
9
4
-3
7
Precision metal workers ............................................................................................
Boilermakers.........................................................................................................
Jewelers and silversmiths .....................................................................................
Machinists...............................................................................................................
Sheet metal workers ..............................................................................................
Tool and die makers ..............................................................................................
Precision printing workers .....................................................................................
Compositors, typesetters, and arrangers, precision...........................................
Lithography and photoengraving workers, precision ........................................
939
30
36
378
222
160
112
30
48
889
30
42
345
226
152
117
24
57
962
32
44
373
240
168
122
25
59
994
33
45
385
249
174
128
26
62
-51
0
6
-3 4
4
-8
5
-6
9
22
2
8
-5
19
8
10
-5
11
55
3
9
6
28
14
16
-4
14
-5
-1
16
-9
2
-5
5
-21
18
2
5
22
-1
8
5
9
-1 7
22
6
10
25
2
13
9
14
-1 3
29
Precision textile, apparel, and furnishing workers.....................................................
Custom tailors and sewers.....................................................................................
Shoe and leather workers and repairers, precision...............................................
Upholsterers ...........................................................................................................
Precision woodworkers..............................................................................................
Inspectors, testers, and graders ...............................................................................
285
108
35
74
204
694
287
116
28
75
214
640
306
123
29
82
234
692
320
127
30
87
250
722
1
7
-7
1
10
-5 5
21
15
-6
8
30
-3
34
19
-5
13
46
28
0
7
-2 0
1
5
-8
7
13
-1 7
10
15
0
12
17
-1 4
17
23
4
Other precision workers ............................................................................................
Dental lab technicians, precision ...........................................................................
Chemical plant and system operators ................................................. .....................
223
46
33
250
60
23
267
64
23
278
67
25
28
14
-11
44
18
-1 0
55
21
-8
12
31
-3 2
20
39
-3 0
25
46
-2 5
Electric power generating plant operators, distributers, and dispatchers.................
Power generating and reactor plant operators .....................................................
Gas and petroleum plant and system occupations...................................................
Stationary engineers..................................................................................................
Water and liquid waste treatment plant and systems operators ..............................
45
25
31
41
74
48
27
19
41
83
50
28
20
42
85
51
29
21
44
88
3
3
-11
0
9
5
3
-11
2
11
6
4
-9
4
14
7
10
-3 7
0
13
11
14
-3 4
5
15
14
16
-3 0
9
19
Machine setters, set-up operators, operators, and tenders...........................................
Numerical control machine tool operators and tenders, metal and pla stic ...............
Combination machine tool setters, set-up operators, operators, and tenders...........
Machine tool cutting and forming set-up operators and tenders, metal and plastic .
Drilling machine tool setters and set-up operators, metal and plastic...................
Grinding machine setters and set-up operators, metal and plastic.......................
Lathe machine tool setters and set-up operators, metal and plastic.....................
Machine forming operators and tenders, metal and plastic ..................................
Machine tool cutters operators and tenders, metal and plastic ............................
Punching machine setters and set-up operators, metal and p la s tic .....................
4,964
56
92
822
63
88
96
170
167
61
4,470
55
88
668
51
72
78
141
134
50
4,770
60
97
737
57
80
86
156
148
55
5,012
61
100
766
58
82
89
163
153
58
-494
-2
-3
-155
-11
-1 6
-1 8
-2 9
-3 3
-11
-194
4
5
-8 5
-6
-8
-9
-1 5
-1 9
-6
47
5
8
-5 6
-4
-6
-7
-7
-1 4
-4
-1 0
-3
-4
-1 9
-1 8
-1 8
-1 8
-1 7
-2 0
-1 8
-4
7
6
-1 0
-1 0
-9
-1 0
-9
-11
-9
1
9
9
-7
-7
-6
-7
-4
-8
-6
Metal fabrication machine setters, operators, and related workers .........................
Metal fabricators, structural metal products ..........................................................
Welding machine setters, operators, and tenders.................................................
180
37
126
152
35
101
167
38
112
172
39
115
-2 8
-2
-2 5
-1 3
1
-1 5
-8
3
-11
-1 6
-4
-2 0
-7
4
-1 2
-4
7
-9
Metal and plastic process machine setters, operators, and related workers ...........
Electric plating machine operators and tenders, setters and set-up operators,
metal and plastic ................................................................................................
Metal molding machine operators and tenders, setters and set-up operators . . . .
Plastic molding machine operators and tenders, setters and set-up operators . . .
300
296
320
338
-3
21
39
-1
7
13
47
37
147
41
29
174
45
33
183
46
34
193
-6
-8
27
-1
-4
36
0
-3
46
-1 2
-2 2
19
-3
-1 2
25
0
-7
31
Printing, binding, and related workers ......................................................................
Bindery machine operators, setters, and set-up operators ..................................
Printing press operators..........................................................................................
Offset lithographic press setters and set-up operators......................................
Printing press machine setters, operators, and tenders....................................
Photoengraving and lithographic machine operators and photographers.............
Typesetting and composing machine operators and tenders................................
412
72
222
73
115
29
37
458
86
252
92
126
37
35
478
90
262
96
131
38
36
505
95
278
101
140
40
37
46
.14
29
19
11
7
-2
66
17
40
23
17
9
-1
93
22
56
28
25
11
1
11
19
13
27
10
24
-6
16
24
18
32
15
29
-3
23
31
25
39
22
36
2
Textile and related setters, operators, and related workers......................................
Pressing machine operators and tenders, textile, garment, and related workers .
Sewing machine operators, garment ....................................................................
Sewing machine operators, nongarment ..............................................................
Textile draw-out and winding machine operators and tenders..............................
Texitle machine setters and set-up operators.......................................................
Woodworking machine setters, operators, and other related w o rkers.....................
Head sawyers and sawing machine operators and tenders, setters and
set-up operators..................................................................................................
Woodworking machine operators and tenders, setters and set-up operators.........
1,165
89
633
135
219
54
147
959
83
526
119
156
45
140
995
88
541
125
164
47
159
1,048
90
567
131
175
51
173
-206
-6
-106
-1 6
-6 2
-9
-7
-170
-1
-9 2
-1 0
-5 5
-7
12
-117
2
-6 6
-3
-4 3
-3
26
-1 8
-7
-1 7
-1 2
-2 8
-1 6
-5
-1 5
-2
-1 4
-7
-2 5
-1 3
8
-1 0
2
-1 0
-2
-2 0
-6
18
74
74
68
72
78
81
85
88
-5
-2
5
7
12
14
-7
-2
7
9
16
19
Other machine setters, set-up operators, operators, and te n d e rs ............................
Cementing and gluing machine operators and tenders........................................
Chemical equipment controllers, operators and tenders ......................................
Cooking and roasting machine operators and tenders, food and tobacco ...........
Crushing and mixing machine operators and tenders ..........................................
Cutting and slicing machine setters, operators, and te nders................................
Electronic semiconductor processors....................................................................
1,700
42
73
26
132
82
29
1,575
39
50
22
117
79
13
1,668
41
52
22
123
82
14
1,754
45
55
23
129
88
14
-125
-3
-2 4
-4
-1 6
-3
-1 5
-3 2
-1
-2 2
-4
-9
0
-1 5
54
3
-1 8
-3
-3
6
-1 5
-7
-8
-3 3
-1 7
-1 2
-4
-5 3
-2
-2
-3 0
-1 4
-7
0
-51
3
6
-2 5
-11
-2
7
-5 2
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
55
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
Table 3.
September 1987 •
Projections 2000: Occupational Employment
Continued— Civilian employment in occupations with 25,000 workers or more, actual 1986 and projected to 2000
[Numbers in thousands]
Total employment
Occupation
1986-2000 employment change
Projected, 2000
Number
1986
Low
Moderate
High
Low
Extruding and forming machine setters, operators, and te nders..............................
Furnace, kiln, or kettle operators and tenders .....................................................
Laundry and drycleaning machine operators and tenders, except pressers.............
Packaging and filling machine operators and tenders...............................................
Painting and paint spraying machine operators .................................................
Painting machine operators, tenders, setters, and set-up operators ...................
Painters, transportation equipment...................................................
Paper goods machine setters and set-up operators.................................................
Photographic processing machine operators and tenders ....................................
Separating and still machine operators and tenders................................
Shoe sewing machine operators and tenders ........................................................
100
58
140
299
100
66
35
60
39
26
27
91
49
160
280
94
62
31
58
45
22
18
96
53
170
293
102
68
34
60
48
23
18
102
56
175
308
107
72
35
66
51
24
18
-9
21
-1 9
-7
-3
-4
-2
6
-4
Assembler and other handwork occupations......................................................
Precision assemblers ................................................................ ..
,
Electrical and electronic equipment assemblers, precision ..................................
Electromechanical equipment assemblers, precision .....................
Machine builders and other precision machine assemblers................................
2,701
351
170
59
50
2,389
315
155
57
44
2,589
348
171
62
48
2,695
358
177
64
49
Other hand workers, including assemblers and fabricators..........................
Cannery workers................................................................
Coil winders, tapers, and finishers..................... ................................
Cutters and trimmers, h a n d ..................................................................
Electrical and electronic assemblers ............................................................
Grinders and polishers, han d..........................................................
Machine assemblers ......................................................................
Meat, poultry, and fish cutters and trimmers, h a n d ...............................................
Painting, coating, and decorating workers, hand...........................................
Solderers and brazers.................................................................................
Welders and cutters ..................................................................
2,350
78
34
50
249
73
50
101
42
25
287
2,074
69
25
48
105
62
44
105
42
24
284
2,240
72
28
50
116
69
49
106
46
27
307
4,789
76
3,089
478
143
334
88
2,463
252
2,211
5,029
94
3,520
541
172
369
88
2,821
222
2,599
117
42
29
66
22
15
Transportation and material moving machine and vehicle operators ..
Aircraft pilots and flight engineers ..........................................................
Motor vehicle operators ..............................................................
Bus drivers ...................................................................................
Bus drivers, except s c h o o l....................................................................
Bus drivers, school ....................................................................
Taxi drivers and chauffers..................................................................
Truck drivers.........................................................................
Driver-salesworkers.............................................................................
Truck drivers, light and heavy..............................................................
Rail transportation workers ..................................................................
Railroad brake, signal, and switch operators ...............................................
Railroad conductors and yardmasters ...............................................
Water transportation and related workers .................................................
High
Low
Moderate
High
-8
-3
-5
31
-5
1
2
-1
0
9
-3
-9
2
-2
36
10
6
6
0
6
12
-2
-8
-9
-1 6
15
-6
-7
-5
-1 0
-4
16
-1 6
-31
-3
-8
22
-2
1
3
-2
0
24
-1 2
-3 2
2
-3
26
3
6
9
1
10
32
-7
-31
-312
-3 6
-1 5
-2
-6
-113
-3
1
4
-2
-6
7
6
5
-1
-1 2
-1 0
-9
-3
-1 2
-4
-1
1
7
-4
0
2
4
9
-1
2,338
76
29
53
119
72
50
108
48
28
320
-277
-8
-9
-2
-145
-11
-6
3
0
-1
-4
-110
-5
-6
0
-134
-4
-1
4
4
2
19
-1 3
-1
-5
3
-131
-2
0
7
6
3
32
-1 2
-11
-2 6
-4
-5 8
-1 5
-1 2
3
-1
-3
-1
-5
-7
-1 9
1
-5 4
-6
-2
4
9
7
7
-1
-2
-1 6
6
-5 2
-2
1
7
14
10
11
5,289
98
3,693
555
177
378
94
2,968
232
2,736
5,456
99
3,798
572
182
390
98
3,050
239
2,811
240
17
431
63
29
34
0
358
-3 0
388
500
22
604
77
34
44
6
505
-2 0
525
667
23
709
94
39
56
10
587
-1 3
600
5
23
14
13
20
10
0
15
-1 2
18
10
29
20
16
24
13
7
21
-8
24
14
30
23
20
27
17
11
24
-5
27
74
25
17
79
27
18
-51
-2 0
-1 4
-4 3
-1 7
-1 2
-3 9
-1 5
-11
-4 4
-4 7
-4 8
-3 7
-4 0
-41
-3 3
-3 6
-3 7
-1 5
50
43
46
49
-8
-4
-1
-8
-3
Other transportation and related workers............................................................
Parking lot attendants ...............................................................................
Service station attendants ............................................................
416
30
299
401
34
272
421
37
285
430
38
291
-1 5
4
-2 8
5
7
-1 4
15
8
-8
-4
12
-9
1
21
-5
4
25
-3
Material moving equipment operators ...................................................
Crane and tower operators ...............................................
Excavation and loading machine operators ..............................
Grader, dozer, and scraper operators ...................................................
Industrial truck and tractor operators ............................
Operating engineers ..................................
998
58
70
92
426
150
857
56
75
100
265
167
905
60
79
104
283
172
947
64
83
109
296
180
-140
-2
6
8
-161
17
-9 3
3
9
11
-143
23
-51
7
13
17
-131
30
-1 4
-4
8
8
-3 8
11
-9
5
13
12
-3 4
15
-5
11
19
18
-31
20
4,273
831
566
519
278
113
189
4,295
768
606
570
242
130
190
4,522
811
639
587
262
135
203
4,705
838
662
616
280
138
208 I
22
-6 3
40
51
-3 6
17
1
249
-1 9
73
68
-1 6
22
14
432
8
96
97
2
25
19
1
-8
7
10
-1 3
15
0
6
-2
13
13
-6
19
7
10
1
17
19
1
22
10
Helpers, laborers, and material movers, h a n d ............................
Freight, stock, and material movers, h a n d .......................................
Hand packers and packagers ................................................................
Helpers, construction trades ...............................................
Machine feeders and offbearers ...............................................
Refuse collectors ...................................................
Vehicle washers and equipment cleaners ..............................
of the rapid growth of the personnel supply services indus
try, which has many small establishments. Other managerial
occupations projected to grow rapidly because of large em
ployment gains in industries where the occupations are
concentrated include insurance underwriters (34 percent),
property and real estate managers (39 percent), and loan
officers and counselors (34 percent). However, not all occu
pations in the managerial group will fare as well. Employ
ment for purchasing managers; purchasing agents, except
wholesale, retail, and farm products; and wholesale and
retail buyers is expected to grow more slowly than total
employment due to the computerization of purchasing tasks
56
-9
Moderate
Percent
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
and more efficient purchasing methods. Other occupations
with low projected growth rates are in Federal, State, and
local governments, which are not expected to grow as fast
as the overall economy; these occupations include post
masters and mail superintendents, public administrators,
and construction and building inspectors.
Engineers, architects, and surveyors. The electrical engi
neers occupation is projected to have the largest employ
ment gain (192,000 jobs) and the most rapid increase
(48 percent) in this cluster. Most of the increase is expected
to occur in industries such as communications equipment,
computers, and other electronics equipment manufacturing.
The need to remain competitive will require an increasing
number of these engineers to update product designs, ex
plore more cost-efficient ways of producing goods, and
develop new products.
The mechanical engineers occupation is projected to have
the next largest employment gain (76,000 jobs) and the
second most rapid increase (33 percent) among occupations
in the engineers, architects, and surveyors group. Most of
the employment increase is expected in manufacturing be
cause of increasing product design requirements. Other
sources of demand for mechanical engineers include
services, such as engineering and architectural services,
miscellaneous business services, and temporary help supply
services. Construction and government industries are ex
pected to employ an increasing number of mechanical engi
neers as well. The number of civil engineers, including
traffic engineers is projected to increase by 50,000 jobs
(25 percent), based on the need to improve the highway
system and other large-scale construction projects in the
economic infrastructure. Also, the number of industrial en
gineers, except safety engineers, is projected to increase by
35,000 workers (30 percent) as industry seeks to improve its
efficiency through the introduction of new production tech
niques, such as integrated manufacturing systems. The
architects, except landscape and marine, occupation is pro
jected to gain 25,000 jobs (30 percent) because of increased
demand for office buildings, apartment buildings, and resi
dential housing. Computer-assisted design equipment will
allow architects to provide more flexible services by produc
ing variations in design more easily.
Natural, computer, and mathematical scientists. The
computer systems analysts occupation is expected to have
the largest employment gain (251,000 jobs) and the fastest
growth (76 percent) of any occupation within this job
cluster. Close to half the employment gain for computer
systems analysts is projected to occur in the computer and
data processing services industry. The remaining increase
will be scattered throughout the economy as computers con
tinue to be used more intensively by an ever-expanding
number of industries and firms. New business and defense
computer applications will continue to be prime sources of
demand. The number of operations and systems researchers
is projected to grow very rapidly (54 percent) due to the
increased importance of quantitative analysis throughout
industries.
The number of life scientists is expected to grow
21 percent, or by 30,000 jobs, from 1986 to 2000. The
government and health services industries are expected to
employ increasing numbers of life scientists as genetic re
search expands into such areas as new medicines, plant and
animal variations, and diagnostic techniques for genetic de
fects. Employment of physical scientists is to increase mod
erately at 13 percent, with 24,000 jobs added due to military
and private research and development. Employment oppor
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tunities are expected to open up in laser research, highenergy physics, and other areas of advanced science.
Teachers, librarians, and counselors. This group of occu
pations is projected to grow about as fast as the average for
total employment and add about 772,000 jobs. However,
not all detailed occupations within this cluster are expected
to have the same growth rate due to differing trends in the
cohorts that comprise school-age youth in different levels of
education. Employment for preschool teachers, for exam
ple, is projected to increase faster than total employment, or
by 36 percent, because of the increased demand by working
parents for child daycare services. The number of kinder
garten and elementary school teachers is expected to grow
about as fast as the average for total employment; this
growth is because of rising enrollments that reflect the in
crease in births beginning in the late 1970’s from the “echo”
effect of the post-World War II baby boom. Employment for
secondary teachers, however, is expected to grow more
slowly than the average for total employment due to the
small projected increase in enrollments from 1986 to 2000.
The number of college and university faculty is projected to
decrease by 4 percent because of the decline in college
enrollments projected through 2000. Employment in the
professional librarians occupation is expected to grow just
slightly less than total employment, or by 13 percent; while
the duties of librarians have become heavily automated,
their work still requires extensive judgment. The number of
counselors in education is projected to grow by 21 percent,
as their duties are expected to extend beyond academic
counseling into such areas as family relations and substance
abuse.
Health diagnosing and treating occupations. Employ
ment for health professionals is expected to grow rapidly (42
percent), adding over 1 million jobs by 2000. Job growth in
the health industries where these workers are employed is
projected to be among the fastest in the economy, except for
the hospital industry, which is projected to grow more
slowly than total employment. A variety of health practi
tioner occupations in the health industries are projected to
grow faster than the average for total employment, includ
ing physical therapists (87 percent), optometrists (49 per
cent), and speech pathologists and audiologists (34 percent).
The projections show 2 million registered nurses in 2000,
an increase of more than 600,000 jobs. The demand for
registered nurses is expected to be particularly strong in
hospitals, where, in response to cost-containment pressures,
nurses will assume some of the duties previously performed
by other health personnel. The number of registered nurses
is projected to grow rapidly in physicians’ offices, due to the
increasing size of physician practices and more sophisti
cated medical technology, and also in nursing and personal
care facilities to care for patients who are expected to have
shorter stays in hospitals.
Employment for physicians and surgeons is projected to
grow rapidly (38 percent), adding 188,000 jobs. Employ57
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
September 1987 •
Projections 2000: Occupational Employment
ment for physician assistants, a relatively small occupation,
is projected to grow much faster than that of physicians. In
addition, health maintenance organizations and other group
practices are expected to use physician assistants to a greater
degree.
Other professional workers. Most other professional oc
cupations are expected to have average or above-average
growth rates by 2000. Employment for lawyers is expected
to grow about twice as fast as total employment, or by
36 percent, because of projected strong demand for legal
services by individuals and businesses. Employment of
social workers is expected to rise 33 percent due to the
increased demand for social workers as mental health coun
selors and therapists.
Technicians. Health services, computer applications, re
search and development, and legal services will be areas of
the economy where technician occupations are projected to
experience large employment gains. The increase in em
ployment for health technicians and technologists is ex
pected to account for about half of the increase for total
technicians— 663,000 of the 1,403,000 jobs. The health
technicians and technologists group contains occupations
with duties ranging from cleaning teeth to administering
electrocardiographs. The licensed practical nurses occupa
tion is expected to have the largest numerical increase
(238,000 jobs) among the health technicians, with many of
these employed in nursing and personal care facilities that
are expected to grow in response to an aging population.
The radiologic technologists and technicians occupation is
expected to have the second largest increase (75,000 jobs),
with gains mainly in offices of physicians and in hospitals.
The number of medical and clinical laboratory technologists
and technicians is expected to increase by 57,000 jobs
throughout the health industries and the number of dental
hygienists is projected to increase by 54,000 jobs.
Employment for computer programmers is expected to
grow rapidly by 70 percent, adding 335,000 jobs. Despite
more effective programming tools, demand for software is
expected to spur the growth because of the ever-expanding
range of new applications for computers. Close to one-half
of the job increase for computer programmers is expected to
occur in the computer and data processing services industry.
The remaining job increases for programmers are expected
to be found throughout the economy.
The engineering and science technicians and technolo
gists group is expected to gain 285,000 jobs. These workers
are expected to realize healthy job gains in trade, services,
and manufacturing. They perform testing, diagnose compli
cated problems with equipment, and assist scientists and
engineers in research and development.
The paralegal personnel occupation is projected to be the
fastest growing technician occupation and the fastest grow
ing occupation overall, increasing by 104 percent. (See
Digitized58
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
table 4.) Nearly all of its employment gain is expected in
legal services where the paralegal workers assist lawyers.
Marketing and salesworkers. A rapid projected growth
rate for the real estate industry is expected to have a favor
able impact on employment for brokers (increasing by
44 percent) and appraisers (increasing by 41 percent). Other
sales occupations that are expected to grow rapidly are travel
agents (46 percent) and securities and financial services
salesworkers (42 percent). The largest detailed occupation
in the group— salespersons, retail— is projected to grow
34 percent and add more jobs than any other detailed occu
pation (1.2 million jobs by 2000). (See table 5.)
Administrative support occupations, including clerical.
Office automation and other technological changes are pro
jected to result in employment declines in several clerical
occupations, including typists and word processors (14 per
cent); stenographers (28 percent); payroll and timekeeping
clerks (12 percent); telephone central office operators (18
percent); telephone directory assistance operators (18 per
cent); procurement clerks (13 percent); data entry keyers,
except composing (16 percent); and statistical clerks (26
percent). Other clerical occupations, however, are expected
to increase because of rapid growth rates in the industries
employing them or because of the difficulty in automating
their duties. The number of real estate clerks, for example,
is expected to grow by 39 percent; hotel desk clerks by 43
percent; brokerage clerks by 28 percent; receptionists and
Table 4. Fastest growing occupations, 1986-2000,
moderate alternative
[Numbers in thousands]
Employment
1986
Projected,
2000
Number
Percent
Percent of
total
job growth,
1986-2000
61
132
61
125
251
115
64
119
53
103.7
90.4
87.5
.3
.6
.2
36
65
29
81.6
.1
69
138
13
125
249
23
56
111
10
80.4
80.1
77.2
.3
331
40
582
70
251
30
75.6
75.0
1.2
.1
Occupation
Paralegal personnel.................
Medical assistants...................
Physical therapists...................
Physical and corrective therapy
assistants and a id e s .............
Data processing equipment
repairers................................
Home health aid e s...................
Podiatrists................................
Computer systems analysts,
electronic data processing . . .
Medical records technicians . . .
Employment Interviewers, private
or public employment
service..................................
Computer programmers...........
Radiologic technologists and
technicians............................
Dental hygienists.....................
Dental assistants.....................
Physician assistants.................
Operations and systems
researchers ..........................
Occupational therapists ...........
Peripheral electronic data
processing equipment
operators ..............................
Data entry keyers, composing .
Optometrists ............................
Change in
employment,
1986-2000
.5
0
75
129
54
71.2
.3
479
813
335
69.9
1.6
115
87
155
26
190
141
244
41
75
54
88
15
64.7
62.6
57.0
56.7
.3
.3
.4
.1
38
29
59
45
21
15
54.1
52.2
.1
.1
46
29
37
70
43
55
24
15
18
50.8
50.8
49.2
.1
.1
.1
information clerks by 41 percent; and interviewing clerks,
except personnel and social welfare, by 45 percent. Further
more, certain clerical occupations are expected to grow as a
result of being favorably affected by technological change.
The rising use of computers throughout the economy is
expected to spur the demand for computer operators and
peripheral electronic data processing equipment operators;
these occupations are projected to grow by 47 percent and
51 percent, respectively. Also, the data keyers, composing,
occupation is projected to grow by 51 percent, a result of the
increasing use of computerized typesetting technology.
Service workers. This group is projected to have several
rapidly growing occupations and add large numbers of new
jobs. Near the top of the list are several health service
occupations. The medical assistant occupation, with a
growth rate of 90 percent, is projected to be one of the
fastest growing occupations from 1986 to 2000 because of
the growing acceptance of those workers as a cost-effective
way to provide both clinical and clerical support to physi
cians and other health professionals. The number of home
health aides is projected to grow by 80 percent due to a
number of factors., mainly the growing elderly population
and the continuation of the trend to provide medical care
outside of the traditional hospital setting.
Other health service occupations with rapid projected
rates of growth over the 1986-2000 period include physical
and corrective therapy assistants (82 percent) and dental
assistants (57 percent). Employment for nursing aides,
orderlies, and attendants is projected to grow by 35 percent,
adding 433,000 jobs by 2000; much of the employment
growth of these workers is expected in the rapidly expanding
nursing and personal care industry. In the slower growing
hospital industry, however, employment in this occupation
is expected to decline by 62,000 jobs due to cost-cutting
efforts.
Employment for food preparation and service occupations
is projected to grow by 37 percent, increasing by 2.6 million
jobs. These workers are concentrated in eating and drinking
places. This industry is projected to have the largest numer
ical job growth of all the industries in the economy from
1986 to 2000— nearly 2.5 million additional jobs. Occupa
tional employment growth ranges from 17 percent for insti
tution or cafeteria cooks to 46 percent for restaurant cooks.
The protective service workers group is projected to grow
by 31 percent, or by 645,000 jobs. Within this group, the
largest and most rapidly growing occupation is guards, with
a projected increase of 48 percent. Their growth is expected
to occur mainly in the protective services industry as more
and more firms choose to contract out for protective
services.
Another large service occupation with a sizable employ
ment increase is janitors and cleaners (604,000 jobs), al
though the growth rate for the occupation will be about the
average for the economy. More and more firms also are
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Table 5. Occupations with the largest job growth, 19862000, moderate alternative
[Numbers in thousands]
Employment
Occupation
Salespersons, retail .................
Waiters and waitresses ...........
Registered nurses ...................
Janitors and cleaners, including
maids and housekeeping
cleaners................................
General managers and top
executives ............................
Cashiers ..................................
Truck drivers, light and heavy ..
General office clerks ...............
Food counter, fountain, and
related workers.....................
Nursing aides, orderlies, and
attendants ............................
Secretaries ..............................
Guards ....................................
Accountants and auditors.........
Computer programmers...........
Food preparation workers.........
Teachers, kindergarten and
elementary............................
Receptionists and information
c le rk s....................................
Computer systems analysts,
electronic data processing . . .
Cooks, restaurant.....................
Licensed practical nurses........
Gardeners and groundskeepers,
except farm .........................
Maintenance repairers, general
utility ....................................
Stock clerks, sales f lo o r ...........
First-line supervisors and
managers..............................
Dining room and cafeteria
attendants and
barroom helpers...................
Electrical and electronics
engineers..............................
Lawyers....................................
Change in
employment,
1986-2000
Percent of
total
job growth,
1986-2000
1986
Projected,
2000
Number
Percent
3,579
1,702
1,406
4,780
2,454
2,018
1,201
752
612
33.5
44.2
43.6
5.6
3.5
2.9
2,676
3,280
604
22.6
2.8
2,383
2,165
2,211
2,361
2,965
2,740
2,736
2,824
582
575
525
462
24.4
26.5
23.8
19.6
2.7
2.7
2.5
2.2
1,500
1,949
449
29.9
2.1
1,224
1,658
433
35.4
2.0
3,234
794
945
479
949
3,658
1,177
1,322
813
1,273
424
383
376
335
324
13.1
48.3
39.8
69.9
34.2
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.6
1.5
1,527
1,826
299
19.6
1.4
682
964
282
41.4
1.3
331
520
631
582
759
869
251
240
238
75.6
46.2
37.7
1.2
1.1
1.1
767
1,005
238
31.1
1.1
1,039
1,087
1,270
1,312
232
225
22.3
20.7
1.1
1.0
956
1,161
205
21.4
1.0
433
631
197
45.6
.9
401
527
592
718
192
191
47.8
36.3
.9
.9
expected to contract out for janitorial services, rather than
using their own employees for this work.
Agriculture, forestry, and fishing workers. Although this
group as a whole is projected to have an employment decline
of 163,000 jobs, several detailed occupations are projected
to have significant employment increases. The most impor
tant of these increases is for the gardeners and groundskeep
ers, except farm, occupation that is projected to gain nearly
240,000 jobs largely because of growth in lawn services and
landscaping services for both individuals and businesses.
Occupations in farming are projected to account for most
of the employment decline in this group. Employment for
farmers is expected to decline by 332,000 jobs as small
farms continue to be consolidated into larger ones. Elowever, the process of farm consolidation is projected to lead
to an increase in the number of jobs (47,000) for farm
managers. Employment for farm workers is expected to
decrease by almost 200,000 jobs as farming methods and
equipment improve.
59
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
September 1987 •
Projections 2000: Occupational Employment
Blue-collar worker supervisors. The blue-collar worker
supervisors occupation is expected to gain 144,000 jobs, an
increase of only 8 percent. This slow growth rate is due
mainly to the projected employment decline in manufactur
ing. However, small employment gains are expected in
some manufacturing industries, including plastics, electron
ics, and commercial printing. Most of the growth in the
blue-collar worker supervisors occupation is expected to
occur outside manufacturing, especially in construction and
services.
Construction trades and extractive workers. Employment
for carpenters is projected to grow by about 18 percent, or
by 182,000 jobs— the largest numerical increase among oc
cupations in this cluster. Close to one-third of the gain is
expected to occur among self-employed carpenters. The
residential building and nonresidential carpentering and
flooring industries are expected to add the bulk of the re
maining jobs.
Employment in the electricians occupation is projected to
grow by 89,000 jobs. Most of the increase is expected to
occur in construction, which will more than offset job losses
projected for electricians in manufacturing.
Employment for painters and paperhangers (construction
and maintenance) is projected to increase by 90,000 jobs.
More than 40 percent of this increase is expected among
self-employed painters and paperhangers. The wage and
salary worker increase is projected to occur in the construc
tion, real estate, and services sectors.
Employment in the plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters
occupation is projected to have an increase of 69,000 jobs,
mainly occurring in construction.
Mechanics, installers, and repairers. The general utility
maintenance repairers occupation is projected to have the
largest job gain (232,000 jobs) within this job cluster, al
though the growth of 22 percent will be the same as that for
total employment. A large part of the increase is expected in
real estate and services, such as business services, hotels,
nursing care, and education. Employment for bus and truck
mechanics and diesel engineers is projected to grow by
63,000 jobs due to employment gains in trucking, repair
services, and trade. Employment in the data processing
equipment repairers group is projected to increase by 56,000
jobs, or 80 percent, the largest percentage increase of any
occupation in the mechanics, installers, and repairers group.
Most of the increase is expected in the machinery and equip
ment wholesale trade industry and in the computer and data
processing services industry.
The number of automotive mechanics is projected to
grow by 60,000 jobs, an increase of only 8 percent. This
modest rate of increase is due to a decline in repair work
done in gasoline service stations and from better design and
workmanship in automobiles.
60
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Precision production and plant system operators. The
precision production and plant systems operators group is
projected to experience little growth through the year 2000.
The precision woodworkers occupation is expected to add
30.000 of the 134,000 new jobs for the group; the dental
laboratory technicians and sheet metal workers occupations
are expected to add 18,000 jobs and 19,000 jobs, respec
tively. The number of machinists is projected to drop by
5.000 jobs. Shoe and leather workers and repairers are ex
pected to be one of the most rapidly declining occupations
(17 percent) due to the projected declines in the shoe and
leather industries.
Machine setters, set-up operators, operators, and tenders.
This occupational group is projected to have the largest job
decline, down 194,000 jobs. Employment for garment
sewing machine operators is expected to decline by 14 per
cent, or by 92,000 jobs, as a result of the impact of technol
ogy and foreign imports on employment in the apparel
in d u s t r y . O t h e r o c c u p a t i o n s e x p e c t e d t o d e c l i n e i n c l u d e t e x
tile drawout and winding machine operators (55,000 jobs);
chemical equipment controllers and operators (22,000 jobs);
and machine tool cutters, operators, and tenders (19,000
jobs). However, several occupations in this group are in
industries that are growing and are expected to make modest
gains: plastic molding machine operators and tenders
(36,000 jobs), laundry and dry cleaning machine operators
and tenders (31,000 jobs), and offset lithographic press set
ters and operators (23,000 jobs).
Assemblers and other handwork occupations. Employ
ment in this group as a whole is projected to decline by
113.000 jobs as many tasks of the workers are automated.
The increasing use of industrial robots, for example, is
expected to cause electrical and electronic assemblers to be
the fastest declining occupation with a projected loss of
54 percent (table 6) and to cause a more modest 7-percent
decline for welders and cutters. The impact of technological
change is expected to be less severe on precision assemblers
as a group because current robots, which are expected to be
used on a large scale in the 1990’s, are not capable of
performing more complex assembly tasks. The employment
of precision assemblers, therefore, is expected to remain
virtually unchanged from 1986 to 2000.
Transportation and material moving occupations.
Employment in many occupations in this group is expected
to decrease between 1986 to 2000 due to declining industry
employment and technological changes. The railroad indus
try, for example, is expected to lose about 190,000 jobs,
causing the number of rail transportation workers to drop by
37 percent. The number of water transportation workers is
expected to decline by 8 percent as a result of the projected
employment losses in the water transportation industries.
The greater use of automated materials handling equipment
in factories and warehouses is projected to cause employ
ment in the industrial truck and tractor operators occupation
to decrease by about 34 percent. Employment in the truck
drivers occupation, however, is projected to grow by 21
percent, increasing by more than half a million jobs between
1986 and 2000. Other occupations expected to have average
growth rates include bus drivers, parking lot attendants,
excavation and loading machine operators, grading machine
operators, and operating engineers. The aircraft pilots and
flight engineers occupation is projected to increase faster
than the average for total employment, or by 29 percent.
Helpers, laborers, and hand material movers. Occupa
tions in this group are generally expected to grow more
slowly than the average for total employment except for the
refuse collectors occupation, which is projected to have an
average rate of growth through the year 2000. Declines in
the machine feeders and offbearers occupation (6 percent)
and freight, stock, and material movers occupation (2 per
cent) are expected as a result of technological changes.
Low and high projections
The distribution of employment by broad occupational
group varies little among the projected alternatives for 2000
because of offsetting changes within the broad occupational
groups. (See table 7.) In specific occupations, however,
some significant differences may exist between the moder
ate and either the low or high alternatives. The differences
in occupational employment from one alternative to another
are caused only by differences in projected industry employ
ment levels, because the same set of occupational staffing
Table 7. Occupational employment distribution, 1986 and
projected to 2000
Projected, 2000
Occupation
1986
Employment
Occupation
1986
Electrical and electronic assemblers...................
Electronic semiconductor processors .................
Railroad conductors and yardmasters.................
Railroad brake, signal, and switch operators . . . .
Gas and petroleum plant and system
occupations .....................................................
Industrial truck and tractor operators...................
Shoe sewing machine operators and tenders . . .
Station installers and repairers, telephone..........
Chemical equipment controllers, operators
and tenders .....................................................
Chemical plant and system operators.................
Stenographers.....................................................
Farmers................................................................
Statistical cle rks...................................................
Textile draw-out and winding machine operators
and tenders .....................................................
Central office and pbx installers and repairers . . .
Farm workers........................................................
Coil winders, tapers, and finishers .....................
Central office operators ......................................
Directory assistance operators............................
Compositors, typesetters, and arrangers,
precision............................................................
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Projected,
Percent decline
In employment
2000
100.0
10.2
1.6
0.8
4.4
2.8
3.5
3.8
12.3
16.6
17.3
100.0
10.2
1.6
0.8
4.3
2.8
3.5
3.8
12.3
16.6
17.2
100.0
10.3
1.6
0.8
4.3
2.8
3.5
3.8
12.2
16.6
17.1
Agriculture, forestry, and fishing workers..........
Blue-collar worker supervisors ......................
Construction trades and extractive workers.......
Mechanics and repairers ............................
Precision production and plant systems
occupations..........................................
Machine setters and operators......................
Assemblers and other hand workers...............
Transportation and material moving workers ....
Helpers and laborers .................................
3.2
1.6
3.6
4.2
2.6
1.5
3.6
4.0
2.6
1.5
3.5
4.0
2.5
1.5
3.6
4.0
2.7
4.4
2.4
4.3
3.8
2.4
3.5
1.9
4.0
3.4
2.4
3.6
1.9
4.0
3.4
2.4
3.6
2.0
4.0
3.4
patterns were used for all alternatives. Total employment in
the moderate trend projections varies by only about 4 per
cent from the high alternative and about 6 percent from the
low alternative. Therefore, the greatest numerical dif
ferences for specific occupations exist between the low
alternative projected employment and the moderate trend
employment; the following text tabulation shows these
differences:
Occupation
S a le s p e r s o n s , retail
S e c r e ta r ie s
Employment difference
....................
.......................................
T ru ck d r iv e r s , lig h t and h e a v y
Jan itors an d c l e a n e r s ...................
116
14
17
25
-53.7
-51.1
-40.9
-39.9
31
426
27
58
20
283
18
40
-34.3
-33.6
-32.1
-31.8
73
33
52
23
-29.7
-29.6
178
1,182
71
128
850
52
-28.2
-28.1
-26.4
219
74
940
34
42
32
164
57
750
28
34
27
-25.2
-23.1
-20.3
-18.5
-17.9
-17.7
30
25
-17.1
216,000
188,000
145.000
138.000
136.000
136.000
125.000
B o o k k e e p in g , a c c o u n tin g , and
a u d itin g c l e r k s ............................
B lu e - c o lla r w o r k e r su p e r v is o r s
249
29
29
42
High
100.0
9.5
1.4
0.7
4.4
2.3
3.3
3.3
11.3
17.8
15.7
G e n e r a l o f f ic e c l e r k s ...................
C a s h ie r s ...............................................
[Numbers in thousands]
Moderate
Total, all occupations ..............................
Managerial and management-related workers ...
Engineers, architects, and surveyors .............
Natural scientists and computer specialists.......
Teachers, librarians, and counselors...............
Health-diagnosing and treating specialists .......
Other professional specialists.......................
Technicians.............................................
Marketing and salesworkers.........................
Administrative support, including clerical..........
Service workers........................................
G e n e r a l m a n a g e r s and top
e x e c u t iv e s ....................................
T a b le 6 .
F a s te s t d e c lin in g o c c u p a tio n s , 1 9 8 6 - 2 0 0 0 ,
m o d e r a te a lt e r n a t iv e
Low
W a ite r s an d w a itr e s s e s
..............
123.000
113.000
94,000
Uses and implications
bls occupational projections are used extensively for ca
reer guidance and provide the background for analyses of
future employment opportunities in the bls Occupational
Outlook Handbook. Job outlook discussions in the 1988-89
edition of the Handbook, scheduled for release in the spring
of 1988, will use the projections presented in this article.
These projections also provide information for analyzing a
variety of issues, including the relation of education and
training to job opportunities and labor market conditions for
minority groups.
Educational attainment. Much has been written to indi
cate that the changing occupational structure of employment
61
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
September 1987 •
Projections 2000: Occupational Employment
implies the need for a more highly educated work force. To
see if the 1986-2000 occupational projections substantiate
this view, the occupational clusters discussed previously
were divided into three groups. Group I includes the clusters
in which at least two-thirds of the workers in 1986 had 1 or
more years of college. Group II includes the clusters in
which the median years of school completed was greater
than 12 and the proportion of those workers with less than
a high school education was relatively low. Group III in
cludes occupational clusters where the proportion of work
ers having less than a high school education was relatively
high— more than 30 percent. Given that workers in any
occupational cluster have a broad range of educational back
ground, these three groups can only be based on the educa
tional level of the majority of workers. Obviously, workers
are employed in each of the groups at each of the educa
tional levels.
The distribution of total employment in 1986 and pro
jected 2000 employment for these three groups of educa
tional attainment is shown in table 8. These data indicate
that employment in the occupations requiring the most edu
cation, group I, is projected to increase as a proportion of
total employment, while employment in the other two
groups in which workers had less education will decline as
a proportion of total employment. The proportion of total
employment is expected to decline the most in group III, the
group which requires the least amount of education. It
should be noted that the service workers group— the only
occupational cluster in the educational attainment group III
with median school years completed above 12 years— is
increasing as a proportion of total employment. All other
occupational clusters in this group are declining (some by
very significant amounts). Conversely, in group I, all the
T a b le 8 .
E m p l o y m e n t in b r o a d o c c u p a t i o n a l c l u s t e r s b y
le v e l o f e d u c a t i o n a l a t t a i n m e n t , 1 9 8 6 a n d p r o j e c t e d t o
2 0 0 0 , m o d e r a t e a lte r n a t iv e
[In percent]
Occupation
1986
2000
Total, all groups ................................................................
100.0
100.0
Group I, total .........................................................................
Management and management-related occupations . . . .
Engineers, architects, and surveyors................................
Natural scientists and computer specialists .....................
Teachers, librarians, and counselors................................
Health diagnosing and treating ........................................
Other professional specialists...........................................
Technicians ......................................................................
25.1
9.5
1.4
.7
4.4
2.3
3.5
3.3
27.3
10.2
1.5
.8
4.3
2.8
3.7
4.0
Group II, to ta l........................................................................
Salesworkers ....................................................................
Administrative support, including c le ric a l.........................
Blue-collar worker supervisors...........................................
Construction trades and extractive w o rkers.....................
Mechanics and repairers...................................................
Precision production and plant systems workers .............
40.8
11.3
17.8
1.6
3.4
4.2
2.5
40.0
12.3
16.7
1.5
3.3
4.0
2.2
Group III, total ......................................................................
Service workers ................................................................
Agriculture, forestry, and fishing w orkers..........................
Machine setters and operators .........................................
Hand workers....................................................................
Transportation and material moving workers ...................
Helpers and laborers .......................................................
34.0
15.7
3.3
4.5
2.4
4.3
3.8
32.7
17.2
2.6
3.6
1.9
4.0
3.4
62
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Table 9. Projected 1986-2000 growth rate and percent of
total employment in 1986 accounted for by blacks, Hispanics, and women, moderate alternative1
Occupation
Percent of total
Projected
percent
employment in 1986
change,
1986-2000 Black Hispanic Women
Total, all occupations ..............................
Natural scientists and computer specialists.......
Health diagnosing and treating occupations ....
Technicians.............................................
Engineers, architects, and surveyors .............
Service workers........................................
Marketing and salesworkers.........................
Managerial and management-related workers ...
Other professional workers...........................
Construction trades and extractive workers.......
19
46
42
38
32
31
30
29
26
18
10
6
6
8
4
17
6
6
7
7
7
3
3
4
3
9
5
4
4
8
44
31
67
47
7
61
48
43
43
2
Teachers, librarians, and counselors...............
Mechanics and repairers ............................
Administrative, support, including clerical ........
Transportation and material moving workers ....
Helpers and laborers ..................................
Precision production and plant systems
occupations ..........................................
Machine setters and operators......................
Assemblers and other handwork occupations ...
Agriculture, forestry, and fishing workers..........
16
15
11
10
6
9
7
11
14
17
3
7
6
8
11
68
3
80
9
16
4
-4
-4
-5
9
16
13
7
9
13
11
10
23
42
38
16
1Does not include supervisors in construction trades and extractive workers; mechanics and
repairers; precision production and plant system occupations; or assemblers and other hand
work occupations.
clusters are increasing as a percent of total employment
except for the teachers, librarians, and counselors
occupation.
Minority groups. Job opportunities for individuals or
groups of workers are determined by a multitude of factors
relating to the job market and the characteristics of workers.
Consequently, in developing projections of employment by
industry and occupation, bls does not develop projections
of the demographic composition of those jobs. However,
data on the current demographic composition of jobs can be
used in conjunction with projected change in employment to
determine the implications of the employment projections.
For example, projections can be used to see if future job
growth is consistent with the labor market pattern for jobs
currently held by blacks and Hispanics.
Blacks and Hispanics accounted for about 10 percent and
7 percent of employment in 1986, respectively. Although
members of these two groups were employed in virtually
every occupation, they were more heavily concentrated in
certain occupational clusters. These occupational clusters
are listed in decreasing order by projected growth rate in
table 9. In general, the data show that both blacks and
Hispanics account for a greater proportion of persons em
ployed in the occupations that are projected to decline or
grow more slowly than in those occupations that are pro
jected to increase rapidly. It should be pointed out that the
occupational clusters projected to decline or grow slowly are
generally those requiring the least amount of education and
training and those projected to grow the fastest require the
most education and training. The only exception is the serv
ice workers cluster, which, as discussed previously, is
growing rapidly.
In general, occupations having the fastest growth rates
can be assumed to have the better opportunities for employ
ment. For blacks and Hispanics to improve their labor mar
ket situation, they must be able to take advantage of those
opportunities. The labor force projections discussed in the
article by Howard Fullerton, pp. 19-29, indicate that blacks
and Hispanics will make up 17.4 percent and 28.7 percent
of the total labor force growth, respectively. Because, as
noted earlier, the fastest growing occupations are those in
which a high percentage of workers currently have post
secondary education, the data imply that improvements in
educational attainment are important if blacks and Hispanics
are to take advantage of the favorable job opportunities
associated with these rapidly growing occupations.
The proportion of women employed in certain occupa
tional clusters varies among the clusters. In general,
however, women account for relatively high proportions of
employment in the faster growing occupations with two
exceptions. For natural scientists and computer specialists,
the women’s share of employment currently is low and the
proportion of women employed as engineers, architects, and
surveyors is very low (7 percent). Women tend to account
for smaller proportions in the occupations projected to de
cline or grow slowly, except for the proportion of women
employed as machine setters and operators.
In summary, occupations requiring the most education
and training are projected to grow more rapidly than total
employment. Women currently represent larger proportions
of employment in those occupations than blacks and His
panics. Therefore, among the three minority groups, em
ployment opportunities for women are expected to be the
most favorable.
-FOOTNOTES
1
Data from the 1983, 1984, and 1985 Occupational Employment Statis
tics ( o e s ) surveys, the most current for each industry in the economy when
the projections were developed, were used to develop 1986 occupational
staffing patterns for industries covered by the matrix. Staffing patterns for
other industries were derived from the 1986 Current Population Survey.
For more information concerning the development o f the National IndustryOccupation Matrix, see Employment Projections for 1995: Data and Meth
o d s , Bulletin 2253 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1986). For more informa
tion concerning the o e s survey program, see b l s Handbook of Methods ,
Bulletin 2134-1 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 1982).
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2 The 1986 and projected 2000 occupational distributions in each of the
258 detailed matrix industries were multiplied by estimates o f total wage
and salary worker employment in each year. Estimates of self-employed
and unpaid family workers by occupation for 1986 and projected 2000 were
developed at the total (all industry) level based on data in the Current
Population Survey. They were added to the sum of wage and salary worker
employment to derive estimates of 1986 and projected 2000 total employ
ment by occupation for the economy.
3 In the National Industry-Occupation Matrix, State and local govern
ment workers in education and health service industries are included in the
services industry division, not in government.
63
Strong employment growth
highlights first half of 1987
With employment gains larger than
the labor force expansion, the level
and rate o f unemployment showed marked
improvements; job growth was concentrated
in the service-producing sector
W ayne J. Howe
Employment rose markedly during the first half of 1987.
The number of unemployed workers dropped by 700,000 to
7.4 million, and the civilian unemployment rate fell more
than half a point to 6.2 percent.1This brought the rate to its
lowest level since the first quarter of 1980.
The employment gains in the first half continued to be
concentrated in the service-producing sector. In the goodsproducing sector, there was an overall increase in construc
tion and manufacturing jobs, and employment in mining
began to show a recovery from recent job losses.2
Unemployment and other labor market problems
The civilian unemployment rate, which had exhibited a
pattern of slow improvement since the second quarter of
1984, dipped 0.7 percentage point to 6.2 percent in the
second quarter of 1987, as unemployment dropped to 7.4
million persons. (See table 1.) There were improvements for
almost all worker groups.
Demographic groups. Recently, there has been a shift
away from the historical pattern of a higher unemployment
rate for women than for men. At 5.5 and 5.4 percent in the
second quarter of 1987, the unemployment rates for adult
men and women declined 0.6 percentage point from the last
quarter of 1986. The similarity of jobless rates for these two
groups at this point of an expansionary period is unprece
dented. For example, during the late 1970’s, the rate for
women generally exceeded the rate for men by U to 2
Wayne J. Howe is an economist in the Division of Labor Force Statistics,
Bureau o f Labor Statistics.
64
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percentage points. (See chart 1.) In the 1980’s, however, the
male unemployment rate rose much more steeply than that
for women during the two recessions and, reflecting the
industrial restructuring that has occurred, has not returned to
the 4-percent level recorded in 1979. By contrast, the unem
ployment rate for adult women returned to 1979 levels.
Women have traditionally been more concentrated than
men in the relatively fast-growing service-producing indus
tries. Thus, they were apparently more insulated from the
effects of industrial restructuring. Other factors that may
have served to improve the unemployment situation of
women include a sharp rise in their educational attainment,
a shift into more full-time, career-oriented employment, and
a more firm attachment to the labor force even during their
childbearing years.
The unemployment rate for teenagers, at 17.0 percent in
the second quarter of 1987, was lower than during all of
1986. Unemployment rates for whites, blacks, and Hispanics declined to their lowest levels of the current expansion
ary period. The rate for blacks, at 13.2 percent in the second
quarter, remained about 2\ times the 5.3-percent rate for
whites, while the rate for Hispanics, at 8.8 percent, re
mained in an intermediate position.
Reasons and duration. The number of unemployed job
losers, job leavers, reentrants, and new entrants all declined
from late 1986. With the exception of job leavers— persons
who quit or otherwise voluntarily terminate their employ
ment— all other reasons-for-unemployment measures have
declined significantly during the last 2 years.
Although there was a dip in the number of unemployed
Table 1.
Selected labor force indicators by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, seasonally adjusted quarterly averages,
1 9 8 2 -8 7
[Numbers in thousands]
1982
1984
IV
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
110,959
64.1
99,120
3,471
95,649
57.3
11,839
10.7
114,259
64.5
105,938
3,323
102,615
59.8
8,321
7.3
117,008
65.1
108,752
3,212
105,540
60.5
8,256
7.1
117,628
65.2
109,249
3,171
106,078
*
60.6
8,379
7.1
118,171
65.3
109,980
3,108
106,873
60.8
8,191
6.9
118,558
65.4
110,420
3,179
107,241
60.9
8,138
6.9
119,202
65.5
111,254
3,222
108,032
61.1
7,948
6.7
119,615
65.5
112,180
3,268
108,912
61.5
7,435
6.2
58,375
78.8
52,553
70.9
5,822
10.0
60,014
78.3
56,249
73.4
3,765
6.3
61,137
78.2
57,428
73.5
3,710
6.1
61,189
78.1
57,417
73.2
3,772
6.2
61,329
78.0
57,579
73.2
3,750
6.1
61,646
78.1
57,860
73.3
3,786
6.1
61,968
78.2
58,320
73.6
3,647
5.9
62,063
78.1
58,636
73.8
3,427
5.5
44,112
52.9
40,127
48.1
3,985
9.0
46,348
54.0
43,243
50.3
3,105
6.7
47,990
55.0
44,902
51.5
3,088
6.4
48,451
55.4
45,362
51.9
3,089
6.4
48,916
55.8
45,910
52.3
3,006
6.1
48,993
55.7
46,048
52.4
2,945
6.0
49,288
55.9
46,411
52.6
2,877
5.8
49,651
56.1
46,990
53.1
2,661
5.4
8,472
54.3
6,935
41.3
2,032
24.0
7,898
54.2
6,446
44.2
1,451
18.4
7,880
54.5
6,422
44.4
1,458
18.5
7,988
55.2
6,470
44.7
1,518
19.0
7,926
54.7
6,492
44.8
1,434
18.1
7,919
54.4
6,512
44.8
1,407
17.8
7,946
54.6
6,522
44.8
1,424
17.9
7,901
54.1
6,554
44.9
1,347
17.0
96,623
64.4
87,452
58.3
9,171
9.5
98,812
64.7
92,608
60.7
6,204
6.3
101,126
65.3
94,945
61.3
6,182
6.1
101,571
65.4
95,366
61.4
6,205
6.1
102,098
65.6
96,013
61.7
6,086
6.0
102,418
65.7
96,320
61.8
6,098
6.0
102,812
65.7
96,903
61.9
5,909
5.7
103,191
65.8
97,702
62.3
5,489
5.3
11,503
61.5
9,155
48.9
1,309
20.4
12,251
62.9
10,403
53.4
1,848
15.1
12,589
63.4
10,732
54.0
1,857
14.7
12,707
63.7
10,822
54.3
1,885
14.8
12,605
62.9
10.779
53.8
1,826
14.5
12,715
63.2
10.924
54.3
1,791
14.1
12,877
63.7
11,051
54.7
1,827
14.2
12,822
63.1
11.131
54.8
1,691
13.2
6,826
63.5
5,783
53.8
1,043
15.3
7,612
65.4
6,813
58.5
799
10.5
7,881
64.7
7,027
57.7
855
10.8
8,020
65.3
7,163
58.3
857
10.7
8,143
65.7
7,268
58.6
876
10.8
8,249
66.0
7,409
59.3
839
10.2
8,427
66.4
7,607
59.9
820
9.7
8,508
66.4
7,756
60.6
751
8.8
1986
1987
Characteristic
Total
Civilian labor force .............................................................................
Percent of population ................................................................
Employed........................................................................................
Agriculture .................................................................................
Nonagriculture.............................................................................
Employment-population ratio .....................................................
Unemployed...................................................................................
Unemployment ra te ....................................................................
Men, 20 years and over
Civilian labor fo rc e .............................................................................
Percent of population ................................................................
Employed........................................................................................
Employment-population r a tio .....................................................
Unemployed...................................................................................
Unemployment ra te ....................................................................
Women, 20 years and over
Civilian labor fo rc e .............................................................................
Percent of population ................................................................
Employed........................................................................................
Employment-population r a tio .....................................................
Unemployed...................................................................................
Unemployment r a te ....................................................................
Both sexes, 16 to 19 years
Civilian labor fo rc e .............................................................................
Percent of population ................................................................
Employed........................................................................................
Employment-population r a tio .....................................................
Unemployed...................................................................................
Unemployment ra te ....................................................................
White
Civilian labor fo rc e .............................................................................
Percent of population ................................................................
Employed........................................................................................
Employment-population r a tio .....................................................
Unemployed...................................................................................
Unemployment ra te ....................................................................
Black
Civilian labor force .............................................................................
Percent of population ................................................................
Employed........................................................................................
Employment-population r a tio .....................................................
Unemployed...................................................................................
Unemployment ra te ....................................................................
Hispanic origin
Civilian labor fo rc e .............................................................................
Percent of population ................................................................
Employed........................................................................................
Employment-population r a tio .....................................................
Unemployed...................................................................................
Unemployment r a te ....................................................................
No te:
Detail for race and Hlspanic-origin groups will not sum to totals because data for the
“other races” group are not presented, and Hispanics are included in both the white and black
persons in the first half of 1987, the mean and median
duration of unemployment were little changed, at 14.8 and
6.7 weeks, respectively. After peaking at one-fourth of the
unemployed in the second quarter of 1983, the proportion of
long-term jobless (27 weeks or more) remained at less than
15 percent during the first half of 1987. There were still
more than 1 million long-term unemployed in the labor
market in mid-1987.
Discouragement and involuntary part-time work. Despite
the continued employment growth and unemployment de
cline, the number of discouraged workers— persons who
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population groups,
report that they want to work but have not actively looked
for jobs because they believe they could not find any—
edged down to 1 million in the first half of 1987. The
number of discouraged workers was only slightly lower than
in late 1984. Although discouragement declined among men
and whites, there was little change for women and blacks,
two groups already overrepresented among the discouraged.
By mid-1987, women made up 45 percent of the civilian
labor force but accounted for 61 percent of discouraged
workers; blacks constituted 11 percent of the labor force but
29 percent of those discouraged.
Another measure of underutilized resources, persons
65
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
September 1987 •
Employment in First H alf o f 1987
Chart 1. Unemployment rates for men and women age 20 and older, 1979-87
Seasonally adjusted quarterly data
Percent
Percent
Chart 2. Employment changes by major industry, fourth quarter 1986 to second quarter 1987
Digitized for66
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Seasonally adjusted
Growth (in thousands)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
working part time for economic reasons (those who would
have preferred full-time work), declined to 5.3 million by
the second quarter of 1987. The two major factors cited by
workers as reasons for part-time employment for economic
reasons are slack work and inability to find full-time work.
The number of such part-time workers has dropped signifi
cantly since the fourth quarter of 1982. However, the pace
of that decline has not matched the decline in the number of
unemployed persons during that same period.
Civilian employment
Total civilian employment continued to expand, rising by
1.8 million in the first half of 1987, the strongest twoquarter job gain since the first half of 1984. At 112.2 million
in the second quarter of 1987, total employment had in
creased by 13.1 million from the recession trough in the
fourth quarter of 1982.3 The present economic expansion
(55 months as of June 1987) has followed the post-World
War II pattern of robust employment growth in the early
stages of a recovery period, followed by relatively smaller
increases in subsequent years. The following tabulation
shows the percentage change in employment during each
6-month period of the current recovery:
P e r io d
P e r c e n t ch an ge
IV 1 9 8 2 -1 1 1 9 8 3
......................................................................
.8
II 1 9 8 3 - 1 V 1 9 8 3
......................................................................
2 .6
IV 1 9 8 3 -1 1 1 9 8 4
......................................................................
2 .4
II 1 9 8 4 - 1 V 1 9 8 4
......................................................................
.8
IV 1 9 8 4 -1 1 1 9 8 5
......................................................................
.8
II 1 9 8 5 - I V 1 9 8 5
......................................................................
1.1
IV 1 9 8 5 -1 1 1 9 8 6
......................................................................
1 .2
II 1 9 8 6 - 1 V 1 9 8 6
IV 1 9 8 6 -1 1 1 9 8 7
......................................................................
......................................................................
1.1
1 .6
The strongest growth during the current recovery was be
tween the second quarters of 1983 and 1984, followed by
much lower rates of employment growth through 1986.
However, the recent increase in the rate of employment
growth is somewhat unusual, because it transpired after
more than 4 years of economic growth.
Age and gender. As has been the case throughout the
current economic expansion, almost all of the employment
increase during the first 6 months of 1987 was concen
trated among adults. As shown in the following tabulation,
adult women accounted for more than half of the job
gain, although they make up only 42 percent of all U.S.
workers:
P ercen t o f
II 1 9 8 7
e m p lo y m e n t
P ercen t o f
IV 1 9 8 6 -1 1 1 9 8 7
em p lo ym en t
ch a n g e
T o t a l ................................. ....................
100
100
M e n ............................ ....................
W o m e n ...................... ....................
T e e n a g e r s ................. ....................
52
42
6
44
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54
2
Although relatively strong, women’s share of employment
growth in the first half of 1987 was smaller than in both
1985 and 1986, when they accounted for 70 and 56 percent,
respectively, of over-the-year increases in employment.
Adult men and teenagers contributed relatively small
amounts toward the employment increase in proportion to
their shares of the total work force. Nevertheless, adult
men’s share of job growth during the first 6 months of 1987
was the largest since the second half of 1984.
The employment-population ratio (the proportion of the
working-age population with civilian jobs) provides addi
tional evidence of the strong recent pattern of employment
growth for adult men and women. As the following tabula
tion shows, the employment-population ratio for adult
women rose steadily between the second quarters of 1983
and 1987, continuing a long-term trend.
P e r io d
O v e r a ll
M en
W om en
T een a g ers
S e c o n d quarter:
1979
1983
1984
1985
............................
............................
............................
............................
5 9 .8
5 7 .5
5 9 .6
6 0 .0
7 6 .5
7 1 .0
7 3 .2
7 3 .2
4 7 .4
4 8 .4
5 0 .3
5 0 .9
4 8 .5
4 0 .8
4 4 .0
4 4 .2
1 9 8 6 ............................
1 9 8 7 ............................
6 0 .6
6 1 .5
7 3 .2
7 3 .8
5 1 .9
5 3 .1
4 4 .7
4 4 .9
For adult men, the employment-population ratio showed no
change between the second quarters of 1984 and 1986, after
sharply declining during the last recession. While it in
creased during the first 6 months of 1987, the adult male
ratio is still well below its 1979 level. This largely reflects
a continuation of long-term declines in employment activity
of older men. The employment-population ratio for
teenagers dropped between 1979 and 1983, recovered
slightly in early 1984, and has edged up slightly over the last
3 years.
Whites, blacks, and Hispanics. All three major race or
ethnic groups contributed to the job growth in the first half
of 1987. The fastest rate of employment gain was recorded
by Hispanic workers. Although they make up only 7 percent
of the U.S. labor force, Hispanics accounted for 20 percent
of the overall increase in employment. Their employmentpopulation ratio increased by more than 1 percentage point
over the 6-month period to a record high 60.6 percent. Adult
women were responsible for most of the employment gains
among both whites and blacks. Both whites and blacks also
experienced increases in their employment-population
ratios.
Industrial developments
The number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls (as
measured by the survey of business establishments) aver
aged 101.7 million in the second quarter of 1987, a gain of
1.3 million jobs in the last 6 months. (See table 2.) Much of
the growth occurred in the first quarter. Throughout much of
the recovery period, the employment increase was domi
nated by service-producing industries, where there was an
67
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
September 1987 •
Employment in First Half o f 1987
service-producing sector of the economy. The largest job
gains have been in services and retail trade, accounting for
60 percent of the total increase in payroll jobs. And, in the
first half of 1987, they continued to lead the expansion. The
services industry posted a 535,000 job gain, with the busi
ness and health services components accounting for almost
two-thirds of the increase.
Within business services, computer and data processing
and temporary help industries continued to register strong
job gains. Such progress was expected for computer and
data processing, as more firms recognize the economic ben-
addition of nearly 1.2 million jobs. All of the major indus
tries which make up the service sector posted strong em
ployment gains in the first half of 1987, with the services
industry and retail trade generating the largest number of
new jobs, while the fastest rate of employment growth was
in finance, insurance, and real estate. Among the goodsproducing industries, construction and manufacturing
showed a rise in employment. (See chart 2, p. 66.)
Service-producing industries. Since the recession trough
in November 1982, 6 of every 7 new jobs have been in the
Table 2.
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls by industry, seasonally adjusted quarterly averages, 1982-87
[In thousands]
1982
Industry
1987
1986
1984
IV
IV
I
II
III
IV
Total ..............................................................................................
88,717
95,882
98,901
99,321
99,804
100,397
101,133
101,686
Total private........................................................................................
72,893
79,721
82,299
82,670
83,119
83,498
84,183
84,655
22,980
24,943
24,767
24,702
24,629
24,624
24,733
24,761
Mining .......................................................................................................
Oil and gas extraction ...........................................................................
1,029
651
957
610
864
529
789
461
750
429
730
411
720
406
732
419
Construction..............................................................................................
General building contractors ................................................................
3,837
959
4,501
1,188
4,817
1,298
4,910
1,300
4,939
1,292
4,941
1,285
5,035
1,304
5,007
1,268
Goods-producing..............................................................................................
I
II
Manufacturing............................................................................................
18,115
19,485
19,086
19,003
18,939
18,953
18,979
19,022
Durable goods........................................................................................
Lumber and wood products ..............................................................
Furniture and fixtures.........................................................................
Stone, clay, and glass products ........................................................
Primary metal industries.....................................................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products.........................................
Fabricated metal products ................................................................
Machinery, except electrical..............................................................
Electrical and electronic equipment .................................................
Transportation equipment..................................................................
Motor vehicles and equipment ......................................................
Instruments and related products......................................................
Miscellaneous manufacturing............................................................
10,484
596
425
558
824
344
1,349
2,051
1,953
1,662
659
699
367
11,634
703
493
593
844
318
1,483
2,235
2,248
1,931
877
721
382
11,343
703
495
588
779
291
1,444
2,102
2,134
2,019
883
715
364
11,267
706
496
589
760
282
1,437
2,075
2,118
2,013
868
710
363
11,195
711
498
584
737
268
1,423
2,046
2,122
2,012
855
703
359
11,173
723
499
582
733
260
1,421
2,016
2,119
2,018
854
700
362
11,171
733
501
587
733
260
1,420
2,013
2,105
2,019
855
695
364
11,179
737
508
585
743
272
1,422
2,026
2,086
2,014
846
693
365
Nondurable goods.................................................................................
Food and kindred products................................................................
Tobacco manufactures.......................................................................
Textile mill products...........................................................................
Apparel and other textile products ...................................................
Paper and allied products..................................................................
Printing and publishing.......................................................................
Chemical and allied products............................................................
Petroleum and coal products ............................................................
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products....................................
Leather and leather products ............................................................
7,631
1,628
68
729
1,139
654
1,271
1,055
200
679
209
7,851
1,607
64
726
1,156
682
1,404
1,056
188
792
176
7,743
1,608
61
700
1,110
673
1,443
1,028
172
788
158
7,737
1,615
60
702
1,104
673
1,452
1,022
170
787
152
7,744
1,618
58
707
1,102
673
1,462
1,021
168
787
148
7,780
1,626
58
713
1,105
678
1,472
1,019
165
797
147
7,808
1,631
58
722
1,103
678
1,482
1,018
164
805
147
7,843
1,636
57
726
1,107
676
1,497
1,021
164
810
150
Service-producing ........................................................................................
65,737
70,939
74,134
74,619
75,175
75,773
76,399
76,925
Transportation and public utilities ............................................................
Transportation........................................................................................
Communication and public utilities........................................................
5,023
2,735
2,288
5,201
2,964
2,237
5,261
3,035
2,226
5,211
3,023
2,188
5,231
3,038
2,193
5,272
3,067
2,204
5,317
3,099
2,218
5,349
3,125
2,224
Wholesale trade ........................................................................................
Durable goods........................................................................................
Nondurable goods.................................................................................
5,213
3,034
2,179
5,643
3,336
2,307
5,740
3,391
2,350
5,735
3,378
2,357
5,736
3,383
2,352
5,728
3,381
2,347
5,755
3,391
2,363
5,774
3,402
2,372
Retail trad e................................................................................................
General merchandise stores ................................................................
Food stores............................................................................................
Automotive dealers and service stations .............................................
Eating and drinking places....................................................................
15,189
2,141
2,510
1,634
4,872
16,923
2,316
2,685
1,834
5,527
17,679
2,345
2,831
1,922
5,829
17,792
2,359
2,864
1,934
5,857
17,906
2,371
2,888
1,950
5,901
17,999
2,376
2,908
1,964
5,928
18,119
2,370
2,938
1,979
5,955
18,209
2,389
2,953
1,979
5,974
Finance, insurance, and real estate..........................................................
Finance..................................................................................................
Insurance ..............................................................................................
Real estate ............................................................................................
5,356
2,664
1,715
977
5,779
2,890
1,785
1,105
6,157
3,079
1,899
1,180
6,257
3,132
1,930
1,196
6,349
3,181
1,961
1,207
6,421
3,214
1,990
1,217
6,502
3,245
2,017
1,241
6,573
3,276
2,036
1,261
Services.....................................................................................................
Business services.................................................................................
Health services......................................................................................
19,131
3,289
5,892
21,231
4,195
6,177
22,695
4,673
6,439
22,973
4,749
6,508
23,268
4,816
6,591
23,455
4,883
6,665
23,757
4,985
6,747
23,989
5,072
6,821
Government..............................................................................................
Federal..................................................................................................
S tate.......................................................................................................
Local.......................................................................................................
15,824
2,745
3,641
9,438
16,161
2,830
3,771
9,560
16,602
2,916
3,871
9,815
16,651
2,896
3,882
9,873
16,685
2,885
3,884
9,916
16,899
2,900
3,916
10,082
16,949
2,917
3,929
10,104
17,031
2,921
3,945
10,166
Digitized for 68
FRASER
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
efits of contracting out for those services. Ongoing job gains
in the temporary help industry— businesses primarily en
gaged in supplying temporary help to other establishments
on a contractual basis— while small in the aggregate, repre
sent a change in the way many American companies are
conducting business. Although the growth rate of the tem
porary employment industry has fallen off slightly from
earlier in the recovery, the industry continues to expand at
a vigorous pace.
Elsewhere in the service-producing sector, retail trade
employment showed marked growth in the first 6 months of
1987, adding 210,000 jobs. Within the largest retail trade
industries, the strongest increases occurred in eating and
drinking places and food stores, while gains in general mer
chandise stores and automotive dealers and service stations
were comparatively small. Employment gains in finance,
insurance, and real estate continued at the same brisk pace
experienced throughout 1986. All three components of that
industry contributed to the strong growth. At the same time,
government employment grew, mostly at the local level.
Within transportation and public utilities, transportation
was responsible for the bulk of the 75,000 employment rise
in the first half of 1987. Finally, following an overall em
ployment decline in 1986, there was an increase of 45,000
jobs in the wholesale trade industry. The majority of that
employment boost was in nondurable goods.
Goods-producing industries. After losing 320,000 jobs
during 1985 and 1986, employment in the goods-producing
sector edged up by 135,000 in the first half of 1987. The
construction and manufacturing industries were each re
sponsible for half of that job advance.
All of the increase in construction jobs (95,000) occurred
in the first quarter, reflecting exceptionally favorable
weather during the winter months and a surge in building
permits at the end of 1986. The second quarter showed a
loss of 30,000 jobs. Special trade contractors continued
steady employment gains in the first quarter of 1987. This
industry accounted for the bulk of the employment growth
in construction in 1984 and 1985 and all of the increase in
1986. As a result, the share of total construction jobs per
formed by these contractors— who specialize in painting,
papering, plumbing, electrical work, stone masonry, and
roofing— has risen from 54 to 59 percent in the past 4 years.
However, the industry’s growth slowed in the second quar
ter of 1987. Heavy construction was the only other construc
1 Unless otherwise noted, changes in the first half of 1987 refer to
movements in seasonally adjusted data from the fourth quarter of 1986
through the second quarter of 1987.
2 Data in this article are from two sources: the Current Population Survey
(CPS), and the Current Employment Statistics survey (ces ). The CPS is a
monthly survey of about 60,000 households and provides information on
the labor force, employment, and unemployment by demographic and
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
tion industry to record employment gains in both the first
and second quarters of 1987. That increase nearly recouped
losses incurred during 1986.
Mining employment edged up between February and May
of 1987, in marked contrast to the large and persistent job
losses of 1985 and 1986. The halt in the employment decline
reflects stabilization in the oil and gas extraction industry,
which had suffered a protracted slump during 1985 and
1986.
Total manufacturing. employment also increased in the
first half of 1987, although its durable goods component was
rather stagnant. After growing sharply in the first 2 years of
the current recovery, employment in durable goods manu
facturing had fallen by 460,000 in 1985 and 1986. During
that period, the largest job losses occurred in electrical and
electronic equipment, motor vehicles, machinery, and in the
primary and fabricated metal industries. The electrical
equipment and motor vehicles industries continued to expe
rience a drop in employment in the first half of 1987, losing
an additional 35,000 and 10,000 jobs, respectively. Those
declines were offset by a slight turnaround in the primary
metals and machinery industries, in addition to continued
growth in the lumber and wood products industry.
After trending downward from the second half of 1984
through the end of 1985, nondurable goods employment
improved in 1986, and that progress continued through the
first two quarters of 1987. Within nondurable manufactur
ing, the textiles, food, printing and publishing, and rubber
and plastics industries were responsible for the recent job
gains, as they were in the fourth quarter of 1986.
Factories maintained unusually high workweeks in the
first half of 1987, averaging just under 41 hours. That was
the highest average since the last half of 1966. Factory
overtime, at 3.6 and 3.7 hours in the first two quarters of
1987, was also very high by historical standards.
i n c r e a s e in the rate of employment growth in the first
half of 1987 was somewhat unusual, given the advanced
stage of the current recovery. Employment gains were larger
than the labor force expansion; consequently, the level and
rate of unemployment showed marked improvements. Job
growth was concentrated in the service-producing sector.
While employment gains were posted in manufacturing, by
historical standards, the factory workweek was at extraordi
narily high levels.
T he
economic characteristics. The ces survey is a monthly survey o f approxi
mately 290,000 nonagricultural establishments and provides information
by detailed industry on the number of employees on business payrolls, as
well as on average hours and earnings.
3
Business cycle peaks and troughs are designated by the National Bu
reau of Economic Research. The most recent recession extended from July
1981 to November 1982.
69
M ajor Agreements
Expiring Next M onth
This list of selected collective bargaining agreements expiring in October is based on information
collected by the Bureau’s Office of Wages and Industrial Relations. The list includes agreements
covering 1,000 workers or more. Private industry is arranged in order of Standard Industrial
Classification.
In d u str y o r a c tiv ity
E m p lo y e r a n d lo ca tio n
N um ber o f
w orkers
L a b o r o r g a n iz a tio n 1
P r iv a te
C o n str u c tio n ..............................................
Southeastern States A rea agreem ent (In tersta te).................................................
Painting and D ecorating Contractors A sso cia tio n (C alifornia) ..................
Boilerm akers ............................................
P a i n t e r s ........................................................
7 ,0 0 0
1 ,0 0 0
F ood products
K ello g g C o . (Battle C reek, Ml) ................................................................................
K ello g g C o . (Interstate) ...............................................................................................
Grain M illers
Grain M illers
............................................
............................................
2 ,5 0 0
2 ,1 5 0
.......................
C lothing and T ex tile W o r k e r s ..........
3 ,0 0 0
................................................................
O il, C hem ical and A tom ic W orkers
1 ,3 0 0
Apparel
.........................................
......................................................
C h em icals
.................................................
Infant and Juvenile M anufacturers A sso cia tio n (Interstate)
U nion Carbide Corp. (Oak R id g e, t n )
Fabricated metal p r o d u c t s ..................
B end ix C orp., K ansas C ity D iv isio n (M issouri) ..............................................
R o ck w ell International C orp ., R ocky Flats Plant (G olden, C O ) ...............
A tlas Crankshaft Corp. (Fostoria, o h ) ...................................................................
M achin ists .................................................
S t e e lw o r k e r s ..............................................
A uto W o r k e r s ............................................
4 ,0 0 0
3 ,0 0 0
1 ,2 5 0
M achinery
Borg-W arner C orp., York D iv isio n (Y ork, PA)
..............................................
A u to W o r k e r s ............................................
1 ,2 0 0
Transportation equipm ent ..................
N ational Steel and Shipbuilding C o . (San D ie g o , CA) .................................
H ughes Aircraft C o. (T u cso n , A Z ) ..........................................................................
M achinists; Carpenters; Painters . . .
M achin ists .................................................
3 ,0 0 0
2 ,2 0 0
U tilities
Jersey Central P ow er and Light C o. (N e w Jersey) .........................................
D uke P ow er C o . (North C arolina) ..........................................................................
H aw aiian Electric C o. (H o n o lu lu , hi ) ...................................................................
Electrical W orkers ( ib e w ) ..................
Electrical W orkers ( ib e w ) ..................
Electrical W orkers ( ib e w ) ..................
2 ,7 0 0
1 ,8 5 0
1 ,0 0 0
W h olesale t r a d e .......................................
A sso cia ted Liquor W holesalers o f M etropolitan N e w York
(N e w Y ork, NY)
D istillery W orkers
1 ,0 5 0
Retail trade
..............................................
K roger C o. (Interstate) ..................................................................................................
A cm e Food Stores (Northern N e w Jersey) ........................................................
Chain and independent fo o d stores (S p o k a n e, w a ) .........................................
F ood and C om m ercial W orkers
F ood and C om m ercial W orkers
F ood and C om m erical W orkers
R e sta u r a n ts.................................................
O n-sale liquor dealers (M in n ea p o lis, MN) ...........................................................
H otel E m p lo y ees and Restaurant
E m p lo y ees
H otel E m p lo y ees and Restaurant
E m p lo y ees
1 ,1 0 0
O ffic e and Professional E m p lo y ees
1 ,4 0 0
L ife Insurance A gents ( l n d . ) .............
1 ,6 0 0
.....................
S ervice E m p l o y e e s .................................
3 .0 0 0
............................................
Electrical W orkers ( ib e w ) ..................
1 ,7 0 0
W ashington H ospital Center, clerica l, tech n ica l, services
(W ash ington, DC)
S ervice E m p l o y e e s .................................
1 ,5 0 0
.........................................................
G eorgia: M etropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority ...............................
W ashington: Seattle M etro T r a n s it ..........................................................................
Transit U nion ............................................
Transit U nion ............................................
2 ,0 0 0
2 ,7 0 0
E d u c a tio n ...................................................
O hio: U n iversity o f C incinnati, c la ssifie d ...........................................................
State, County and M unicipal
E m ployees
E ducation A sso cia tio n ( l n d . ) .............
1 ,5 0 0
.................................................
......................................................
D elica tessen D ealers A sso cia tio n (N ew Y ork, N Y ) .........................................
F in a n c e .........................................................
D epository Trust C o . (N e w Y ork, NY)
Insurance
Prudential Insurance C o . o f A m erica (Interstate)
...................................................
................................................................
............................................
Real estate .................................................
B u ildin g O perators Labor R elations Inc. (P hiladelphia, PA)
S ervices
......................................................
E levator Industries A sso cia tio n (N ew Y ork, NY)
H osp itals
...................................................
.................................
...
...
...
3 ,7 0 0
2 ,5 0 0
1 ,5 0 0
1 ,0 0 0
P u b lic
Transit
W isconsin: M adison Board o f Education, t e a c h e r s .........................................
1 A ffiliated w ith afl- cio excep t where noted as independent ( ln d ) .
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
1 ,7 0 0
Developments in
Industrial Relations
Aerospace update
In St. Louis, 11,000 workers were covered by a 3-year
contract between the Machinists union and McDonnell
Douglas Corp. containing terms similar to those the com
pany unilaterally put into effect in March 1987 at three
California plants.
The St. Louis accord provides for an immediate 3-percent
wage increase and a lump sum equal to 3 percent of earnings
during the preceding 12 months. This is followed by a
2-percent lump sum in the second contract year, and a 4percent lump sum in the final year. Automatic quarterly
cost-of-living adjustments now apply to all employees. Pre
viously, adjustments had been denied to employees in lower
pay grades to relieve a compression of pay rates between
higher and lower grades. Pay averaged $12.95 an hour at the
end of the prior contract, according to the union.
Benefit changes include a $3 increase in the monthly
pension for each year of service for future retirees, annual
payments of $200, $225, and $250 in the respective contract
years to current retirees and an increase in the lifetime major
medical limit for employees and their dependents.
McDonnell Douglas will continue to pay the full premium
cost for health insurance. This is the major difference from
the terms the company imposed at the California plants,
where employees now pay $2 to $4 a week toward the
premium cost.
Elsewhere in the industry, Bell Helicopter, Inc., a sub
sidiary of Textron, Inc., settled with the Auto Workers,
ending a 3-week strike by 3,900 employees in Fort Worth,
tx . The stoppage reportedly was triggered by a company
demand that monetary gains be limited to lump-sum pay
ments— countered by a union demand that the gains be only
in the form of wage increases. The outcome was a compro
mise: a 3-percent immediate wage increase, accompanied
by a lump-sum payment equal to 3 percent of employee
earnings in the preceding 12 months, followed by a 2percent wage increase and a 2-percent lump sum in the
second year, and a 4-percent lump sum in the final year.
The employees also received an immediate 14-cent-an-hour
pay increase under the provision for automatic quarterly
cost-of-living adjustments, which was continued.
“Developments in Industrial Relations” is prepared by George Ruben of the
Division o f Developments in Labor-Management Relations, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and is largely based on information from secondary
sources.
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Bell agreed to continue paying the full cost of the health
insurance program, which was revised to give employees a
choice of plans. (The company had been pressing em
ployees to assume part of health insurance costs.) Changes
also were adopted to hold down health insurance cost in
creases. Other benefit terms include a $5 increase in the
monthly pension for each year of credited service, a $1,000
increase in the $18,000 life insurance coverage, a $200
increase in the $800 annual limit on dental benefits, and
a $20 increase in the $170 a week sickness and accident
payments.
Rockwell International Corp.’s Aerospace Group and the
Auto Workers settled for 17,000 employees in Los Angeles
and Santa Susana, ca , Columbus, oh, and Tulsa and
McAlester, ok. A s in the other settlements in the aerospace
industry, monetary gains were a combination of wage in
creases and lump-sum payments. Effective immediately, the
workers received a 3-percent wage increase that ranged
from 30 to 55 cents an hour, plus a 15-cent immediate
“travel” cost-of-living adjustment to counter the rise in the
Consumer Price Index since the last adjustment under the
previous agreement. The 3-percent increase and the 15-cent
adjustment applied to all steps of the rate ranges for the
highest 12 of the 18 pay grades, but only to the top steps of
the six other grades.
The first lump-sum payment, in December 1987, is equal
to 2 percent of earnings during the preceding 12 months,
excluding pay for holidays and other “nonwork” time. The
second payment, calculated at 6 percent of earnings, will be
in August 1988, and the third, calculated at 5 percent, will
be in August 1989.
Because of a higher rate of increase in health care costs
in California than elsewhere, the parties agreed to some
changes in the health insurance plan, including a new re
quirement that employees not enrolled in a health mainte
nance organization must pay a percentage of their covered
expenses, up to a maximum of $2,500 for individuals and
$5,000 for families. In another change applicable only to
employees in California, the possible allowance resulting
from continuation of the provision for automatic quarterly
cost-of-living adjustments will be reduced if health care
costs to the company exceed a target level, and increased if
the costs are lower than the target. Possible cost-of-living
allowances for the employees in Ohio and Oklahoma are not
linked to health care costs.
71
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
September 1987 •
Developments in Industrial Relations
Other changes included a $4 increase in the $19 a month
pension for each year of service, applying to employees
retiring on or after July 1, 1987, and flat $200, $225, and
$250 payments in the respective contract years to employees
who retired earlier; and a $3,500 increase in companyfinanced life insurance.
Maritime settlements
About 9,000 longshore workers in California, Oregon,
and Washington were covered by a 3-year agreement be
tween the Pacific Maritime Association and the Interna
tional Longshoremen’s and Warehousemen’s Union. Wages
were frozen during the first contract year, but employees
who load and unload ships will benefit from a new method
of calculating overtime pay. Under the old agreement, the
workers were paid $17.27 for each of the first 6 hours of
daily work, and time and one-half ($25.90) for each of the
other 2 hours of their normal 8-hour shift, for an overall
average of $19.43 an hour. Now, all hours will be paid at
a flat $19.43 rate; hours worked in excess of 8 per day will
be paid at time and one-half, or $29.15. The $19.43 hourly
rate will rise to $19.83 in the second year and to $20.33 in
the third year.
Reflecting management’s concern about possible inroads
by lower cost nonunion operators— such as those that have
entered the Atlantic and Gulf Coast areas where the Interna
tional Longshoremen’s Association had a lock on work—
the parties agreed on terms intended to moderate labor costs.
One such change reduces second and third shift pay to 1.3
and 1.6 times the daytime hourly rate (previously 1.5 and
1.8 times). In another change, casual employees and new
regular employees with less than 1,000 hours worked in the
industry start at $14 an hour, which will rise by $1 for each
additional 1,000 hours worked. Also, employers were given
more freedom in scheduling operations.
Under the wage guarantee plan, employees with at least
5 years of service will be assured 38 hours of work per week
(previously 36 hours). Other employees will continue to be
assured 28 hours of work. The major benefit change was a
$4 increase in the monthly pension rate over the contract
term for future retirees and a $3 increase for current retirees.
The previous rates were $29 and $30 a month for each year
of credited service to 33 and 30 years, respectively.
Elsewhere in the maritime industry, 11,000 sailors aboard
deep sea vessels were covered by two settlements. The first
accord, for 5,000 of the sailors, was between the Seafarers
union and the American Maritime Association, which bar
gains for seven shipping lines operating 100 to 120 ships.
The 3-year accord provides for 2-percent wage increases
in each year. The initial increase, effective July 1, 1987,
brought hourly rates to $12.30 for sailors, $10.31 for cooks,
and $17.99 for engineers. There also is a provision for
cost-of-living pay increases if the Consumer Price Index
rises more than 10 percent over the term. The companies
Digitized for
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
also agreed to increase their financing of the health and
welfare and pension plans to maintain current coverage.
The other accord, also running for 3 years, was between
the National Maritime Union and the joint Maritime Service/Tanker Service Committee, which is made up of compa
nies with about 120 ships.
This settlement also provided for 2-percent wage in
creases in each year, except that the first increase was di
verted to help support the union’s welfare plan. There also
is a cost-of-living clause similar to that of the Seafarers •
Other provisions included a new defined benefit pension
plan for sailors on dry cargo vessels (such a plan already is
in effect for tanker sailors), and an additional paid holiday.
Air traffic controllers form new union
The Nation’s air traffic controllers, engaged in continuing
debate with the Federal Aviation Administration over work
ing conditions and the safety and efficiency of the control
system, apparently strengthened their position when they
voted to form a new union. The tally was 7,494 votes for the
new National Air Traffic Controllers Association and 3,225
for no union; there were 41 unresolved challenges. Election
of officers is expected to be completed later in 1987.
John F. Thornton, who led the organizing drive, stressed
that the constitution of the new union prohibits strikes be
cause “times change, and our experience has shown that
strikes against the government are not successful.” He was
referring to developments in August 1981, when the prede
cessor union, the Professional Air Traffic Controllers Orga
nization, went on strike in violation of Federal law, leading
to the firing of 11,400 controllers who defied a retum-towork order. Later in 1981, Professional Air Traffic Con
trollers was stripped of its right to represent the employees
and in 1982, it went into bankruptcy.
Federal Aviation Administration efforts to rebuild the
system since then have been hampered by ever-increasing
air traffic and the high attrition rate among trainees hired to
replace the controllers who were fired. Prior to the firing,
there were 16,200 controllers; currently, there are 13,665,
plus a new corps of 1,467 assistants who perform some
duties that controllers handled prior to the strike. The cur
rent force of controllers is weakened to some extent because
30 percent are still in training and must be supervised by
certified controllers.
The new union is an affiliate of the Marine Engineers’
Beneficial Association, as was the Professional Air Traffic
Controllers.
Program guarantees 100-percent job security
In agricultural equipment manufacturing, Case IH and the
Auto Workers adopted a Competitive and Secure Employ
ment Program guaranteeing that employment in the six cov
ered plants will be maintained at the May 1, 1987, level.
Auto Workers Vice President Bill Casstevens said this was
the first time the union had achieved its three-decade goal of
“ 100 percent job security.” The union had, in recent years,
won 90-percent job guarantees at Deere & Co. and Caterpil
lar, Inc., but these programs, unlike the Competitive and
Secure Employment Program, do not protect employees
against job losses resulting from “economic and market
place forces.”
Under the program, the initial guaranteed employment
level is subject to increases and decreases during the 39month term of the parties’ new labor contract. Generally,
the guarantee will be increased by one job whenever a re
called or newly hired employee attains 1 year of seniority
and works 26 of any 52 consecutive weeks. Reductions in
the guaranteed employment level will usually be at the rate
of one for each job lost through attrition, excluding dis
charges. This is partly offset by a requirement that one
person be recalled from layoff or a new person hired for
every two jobs lost through attrition. Each year, Case is
permitted to shut down all operations for a 4-week vacation
period and for up to 6 weeks if required because of reduced
sales.
The guarantee does not cover 2,400 jobs at three plants in
Illinois, Iowa, and Indiana that are scheduled to close. The
initial 3,700 jobs guarantee applies to four plants in Wiscon
sin, Minnesota, Iowa, and Illinois, and two parts depots.
In return for the new program, the employees agreed to
several contract provisions intended to moderate Case’s op
erating costs: more flexible work rules, overtime provisions,
job assignments, and job bidding and transfer rules.
The accord does not provide for specified increases in
earnings, which averaged $15 an hour, according to the
union, but the workers did receive an immediate $250
“special” payment.
Under the Guaranteed Sharing Benefits plan, the em
ployees will receive guaranteed allocations in April of 1988,
1989, and 1990, calculated at 20, 25, and 30 cents for each
hour worked during the preceding calendar year. The alloca
tions, which were previously contingent on Case’s prof
itability, will be subject to investment in stock of Tenneco,
Inc. (Case’s parent firm) or in a tax-deferred savings plan,
at the employees’ option.
Thes guaranteed payments will also include a possible
share of penalty payments if Case violates a new restriction
on overtime work. Under the provision, the company will
pay $5 into a fund for each overtime hour worked in excess
of 5 percent of all straight-time hours worked during the
particular year. Overtime work for plant additions and reno
vations, installation of machines, and similar operations will
not be subject to the penalty provision.
Other terms included continuation of the provision for
automatic quarterly cost-of-living adjustments, subject to a
55-cent-an-hour diversion over the term to help finance a
training program and to help Case meet the overall settle
ment cost; improvements in pensions for current and future
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retirees; continuation of attendance bonuses (without the
provision that had allowed eligible employees to take paid
days off); and improvements in insurance benefits, in
cluding new optional employee-paid life insurance for
those wanting to supplement their basic company-financed
coverage.
Initial contract for catfish farm workers
In an event the Food and Commercial Workersviewed as
a major victory in its organizing campaign in the South, the
union negotiated an initial contract with the Delta Catfish
Processors, Inc., in Indianola, M S . The settlement came 8
months after the union gained the right to represent the
1,150 workers. (See Monthly Labor Review, December
1986, pp. 36-37.)
The new 3-year contract provides for wage increases of
15 to 35 cents an hour in the first year and 10 to 20 cents in
the second and third years. The total increases averaged 65
cents an hour, according to the union. Prior to the settle
ment, wage rates ranged from $3.35 to $3.95 an hour.
Other terms include adoption of a pension plan, financed
by a 5-cent-an-hour employer payment beginning in the first
year; an additional week of paid vacation after 5 years’
service; two additional annual paid holidays, bringing the
total to 7; adoption of a grievance procedure; establishment
of a formal wage structure; resolution of various unfair labor
practices charges the company and union had filed against
each other; and reinstatement offers to 17 employees the
Food and Commercial Workers claimed had been illegally
fired during the organizing drive.
The company, owned by 160 catfish farmers, produces
about half the Nation’s catfish.
The union also represents workers at Pride of the Pond in
Tunica, m s , who were organized shortly before the Delta
Catfish election and for whom an initial contract was nego
tiated earlier in 1987.
Employees of steel supplier accept compensation cut
The continuing over-capacity and profit problems in the
basic steel industry were reflected in a settlement between
Eveleth Taconite Co., a supplier to the industry, and the
United Steelworkers. Eveleth mines and processes taconite,
a type of rock containing iron ore and other minerals.
The agreement followed a company threat to close the
Eveleth, m n , operations. It provides for a $1.60 an hour cut
in employee compensation— including a 99-cent-an-hour
reduction in wages, bringing average pay to $12, and revi
sions in pay and insurance.
In return for accepting the cuts, the 625 employees won
a profit-sharing plan linked to usx’s profits or, if usx does
not earn a profit, to the stock price of Bethlehem Steel and
ltv
Steel. A gain-sharing program also was established
under which the company and the workers will equally share
any savings resulting from cuts in controllable costs.
73
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
September 1987 •
D e v e l o p m e n t s in I n d u s tr ia l R e l a t i o n s
Eveleth Taconite is operated by Ogleby Norton Co. of
Cleveland.
Weyerhaeuser accord
The lead-off agreement in the round of bargaining in the
West Coast pulp and paper industry froze wages for 2,000
Weyerhaeuser Co. employees in Oregon and Washington,
but provided for an immediate $650 lump-sum payment and
for possible annual incentive payments. The payments,
ranging up to 4 percent of the employee’s earnings during
the preceding 12 months, will be calculated separately for
each of the five mills and will be based on quality, output,
safety, and production costs.
The 2-year contract, negotiated by the Association of
Western Pulp and Paper Workers, also provided for im
provements in pension and health and welfare benefits.
The incentive pay approach comes 1 year after Weyer
haeuser and the Woodworkers and Lumber Production and
Industrial Workers unions negotiated a profit-sharing plan
for 7,200 lumber and plywood workers in 2-year contracts
that cut pay and benefits an average of $3.90 an hour.
According to a Woodworkers’ official, most employees
have benefited from the plan but the payout has varied
among mills.
Elsewhere in the forest products industry, work stoppages
involving more than 3,000 workers began at International
Paper Co. mills in Jay, m e , Mobile, a l , DePere, wi, and
Lock Haven, p a , as the United Paperworkers union resisted
demands for compensation cuts the company claimed were
necessary to aid in countering increasing international com
petition. Previously, International Paper had negotiated with
the union on a plant by plant basis, but the union said it will
now coordinate bargaining at all locations on key issues
and combine the results of contract ratification votes into a
single total.
Employers in Maine must pay severance benefits
In a 5 to 4 decision, the U.S. Supreme Court upheld a
Maine law requiring employers to pay severance benefits.
Under the law, owners closing plants employing at least 100
workers or relocating such operations more than 100 miles
away must provide 1 week’s pay for each year of service to
employees who had worked at the affected plant for at least
3 years. The law does not apply to employees who accept
jobs at the new location or to employees covered by a labor
contract that deals with severance pay.
The case, F o r t H a li f a x P a c k i n g C o . v. C o y n e , arose in
1981 when the company closed a poultry processing plant
and did not distribute severance pay to affected employees.
In its appeal to the Supreme Court, Fort Halifax Packing,
joined by the U.S. Department of Justice and the U.S.
74
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Chamber of Commerce, argued that the Maine law was
preempted by a Federal law, the Employee Retirement In
come Security Act of 1974 ( e r is a ) which broadly regulates
severance and other employee benefit plans. The company
also contended that the Maine law was preempted by the
National Labor Relations Act, which regulates collective
bargaining.
Writing for the majority, Justice William J. Brennan, Jr.
said that the Maine law did not fall under the preemption
clause of e r is a because the severance payments are made on
a one-time basis, rather than being part of a plan providing
for “ongoing benefits on a continuous basis.” Justice Bren
nan also found no conflict with the National Labor Relations
Act, rejecting company arguments that the State require
ment interfered with collective bargaining by undercutting
an employer’s ability to withstand a union’s demand for
severance pay.
Writing for the minority, Justice Byron R. White said that
the Court’s decision had created a “loophole that will under
mine Congress’ decision to make employee benefit plans a
matter of exclusive Federal regulation.”
Court upholds decision on incumbent unions
The U.S. Supreme Court approved the National Labor
Relations Board’s broad interpretation of a 1972 decision by
the Court making it difficult for companies that acquire the
assets of another company to avoid dealing with incumbent
unions.
The case, F a l l R i v e r D y e i n g v. n l r b , began in 1982 when
Sterlingwale Corp., an unprofitable Massachusetts textile
firm closed. Seven months later, a former vice president and
a former customer of the firm acquired the plant and equip
ment and formed the Fall River Dyeing and Finishing Corp.
The new company refused to bargain with United Textile
Workers Local 292, which had represented employees at
Sterlingwale. The union then complained to the National
Labor Relations Board, which ruled that the union had re
tained the right to represent workers at the new company.
Responding to Fall River’s appeal, Justice Harry A.
Blackmun, writing for the majority, said that the company
was a “substantial continuity” in operations, and was
obliged to bargain with the union when it started operations
because a majority of its employees were formerly with
Sterlingwale.
In dissent, Justice Lewis F. Powell, Jr., joined by Chief
Justice William H. Rehnquist and Justice Sandra Day
O’Connor, said that the new company was “a completely
separate entity” from Sterlingwale, and that requiring Fall
River to recognize the union at the beginning of operations
deprived employees of the right to select their union.
Book Reviews
The benevolence of the bottom line
The Responsive Workplace: Employers and a Changing
Labor Force. By Sheila B. Kamerman and Alfred J.
Kahn. New York, Columbia University Press, 1987.
329 pp. $30.
Over the past three decades, the composition of the labor
force has changed dramatically. The most significant aspect
of this has been the shift from a virtually all-male labor force
to one that is composed almost equally of men and women.
This change has had an enormous effect on marriage and
parenting, and has placed new strains on the family. There
is no doubt that families— especially those with children—
are in need of help in coping with the kinds of problems
engendered by this change. What is in question, though, is
the sort of aid families need, and which institutions should
provide it.
At the forefront of the relationship between families and
work are employers. They provide the benefits (exclusive of
wages) that employees need for the security and well being
of their families. This book is a study of these benefits; what
they are, how they are provided, and, most important, a
description of the factors that underlie the type and amount
of these benefits.
Using information gathered from an extensive set of inter
views with employers and employees at all levels, Kamer
man and Kahn have produced a comprehensive overview of
the system of employer-provided benefits. The key point
made in this analysis is that benefits and the way they are
administered stem not so much from altruistic motivations
on the part of employers, but rather from their “bottom
line.” Thus, benefits are sensitive to a great many pressures.
For instance, the authors cite the case of a supermarket chain
which exchanges fringe benefits for union acceptance of a
large part-time work force. Profit margins in this industry
are notoriously small so that the maintenance of a large
number of part-time employees who can respond to times of
peak demand avoids the high costs of overtime pay that
would accompany a full-time work force. Also mentioned
was a high tech firm that uses benefits to recruit and retain
a highly skilled work force at less cost than if the company
were offering higher wages. The fact that employees are
willing to accept fringe benefits over wages is not surpris
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
ing; benefits are a form of wealth. In other words, benefits
substitute for the savings that employees would need to
make to provide for such things as future medical or retire
ment expenses.
However, because bottom-line constraints are a major
factor in the provision of benefits, large-scale inequities
result. Many workers lack such basic benefits as medical
insurance, retirement, life insurance, and paid leave. Thus,
the amount and kind of benefits available to a worker and his
or her family depend on the employer the employee has the
good (or bad) luck to work for.
Few would disagree that this is an inherently unsatisfac
tory situation. However, because benefits stem from indi
vidual employers, each of whom is sensitive to a variety of
differing factors, it is unrealistic to expect that employers
alone would voluntarily reject their own self-interest and
move towards a more equitable system.
However, the authors suggest that the current system (or
non-system) contains the seeds of its own reformation.
Namely, many of the benefits received by today’s workers
are supported by tax incentives or legislative mandates.
Consequently, tax law and other legislation can be used as
a foundation for the creation of a more equitable, universal
system of benefits that could be geared towards meeting the
problems of today’s families.
This is an extremely valuable book that has been pub
lished at a time when the perception of conflict between
family life and work is growing and the need for an author
itative overview of benefits and the factors affecting them is
becoming urgent. Kamerman and Kahn have produced a
volume that not only fills this need, but is accessible to both
the expert and the knowledgeable lay person alike. It is
difficult to envision a better treatment of such a complex,
sensitive subject. Although it is obvious where the authors’
sympathies lie, the book is free from the ideology and
polemicism too often associated with literature regarding
social policy. In short, it is an important resource for any
one— student, business administrator, or policymaker—
who needs a clear guide to the present system of employerprovided benefits.
— H ow ard H ayghe
O f fic e o f C urrent E m p lo y m e n t A n a ly s is
B u re a u o f L a b o r S ta tistic s
75
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
September 1987 •
Book Reviews
“ T e s tin g fo r D r u g U s e in th e A m e r ic a n W o r k p la c e : A S y m p o
Publications received
s iu m ,” N o v a L a w R e view , W in te r 1 9 8 7 , p p . 2 9 1 - 8 2 3 .
Economic and social statistics
U .S . C h a m b e r o f C o m m e r c e , A n a ly sis o f W orkers C o m p en sa tio n
B litz e r , C h a r le s R , P artha D a s g u p ta , J o se p h E . S tig lit z , P r o je c t
A p p r a is a l a n d F o reig n E x ch an ge C o n stra in ts: A S im p le E x p o si
tion . C a m b r id g e , M A , N a tio n a l B u re a u o f E c o n o m ic R e s e a r c h ,
I n c ., 1 9 8 7 , 18 p p . (W o r k in g P a p e r S e r ie s , 2 1 6 5 .) $ 2 , p ap er.
H o lz e r , H arry J ., H irin g P ro c e d u re s in the F irm : T h eir E co n o m ic
D e term in a n ts a n d O u tco m es. C a m b r id g e ,
o f E c o n o m ic R e s e a r c h , I n c .,
S e r ie s , 2 1 8 5 .) $ 2 , p a p er.
M A , N a tio n a l B u re a u
1 9 8 7 , 3 9 p p . (W o r k in g P ap er
P fe ffe r , J e ffr e y an d C h a r le s A . O ’R e illy III, “ H o sp ita l D e m o g r a
p h y and T u r n o v e r A m o n g N u r s e s ,” In d u stria l R e la tio n s, S p r in g
1987, pp. 1 5 8 -7 3 .
W e is s , A n d r e w , In ce n tive s a n d W o rker B e h a v io r: S om e E v id e n c e.
L a w s, 19 8 7 . W a s h in g to n , U . S . C h a m b e r o f C o m m e r c e , 1 9 8 7 ,
4 8 p p . $ 1 2 , p ap er.
Industry and government organization
C o m p u te r an d B u s in e s s E q u ip m e n t M a n u fa c tu r e r s A s s o c ia t io n ,
The C o m p u ter, B u sin ess E q u ipm en t, S o ftw a re , a n d T eleco m m u
n ic a tio n s In d u stry, 1 9 6 0 - 1 9 9 5 . W a s h in g to n , 1 9 8 6 , 2 0 9 p p .,
$ 9 9 .5 0 , p a p er. A v a ila b le fr o m G lo b a l E n g in e e r in g D o c u m e n ts ,
I n c ., S a n ta A n a , C A .
Ita m i, H ir o y u k i, w ith T h o m a s W . R o e h l, M o b ilizin g In visib le
A ssets. C a m b r id g e ,
M A , H arvard U n iv e r s ity P r e s s ,
1 9 8 7 , 186
pp. $ 20.
C a m b r id g e , M A , N a tio n a l B u re a u o f E c o n o m ic R e s e a r c h , I n c .,
International economics
1 9 8 7 , 21 p p . (W o r k in g P a p e r S e r ie s , 2 1 9 4 .) $ 2 , p a p er.
Economic growth and development
“R e c e n t T r e n d s in In tern a tio n a l D ir e c t I n v e s tm e n t,” The OECD
O b s e r v e r, J u n e -J u ly 1 9 8 7 , p p . 3 2 - 3 4 .
G r e e n w a ld , B . an d J. E . S t ig lit z , “ K e y n e s ia n , N e w K e y n e s ia n and
S h e e n , J e ffr e y , “ In fla tio n D e b t an d F is c a l P o lic y A t tit u d e s ,” O x
N e w C la s s ic a l E c o n o m ic s ,” O x fo rd E c o n o m ic P a p e r s, M arch
1987, pp. 1 1 9 -3 3 .
M a d d is o n , A n g u s , “G r o w th and S lo w d o w n in A d v a n c e d C a p ita lis t
E c o n o m ie s : T e c h n iq u e s o f Q u a n tita tiv e A s s e s s m e n t ,” J o u rn a l
o f E c o n o m ic L ite ra tu re , Ju n e 1 9 8 7 , p p . 6 4 9 - 9 8 .
f o r d E co n o m ic P a p e r s, M arch 1 9 8 7 , p p . 9 0 - 1 1 0 .
Labor force
B r o w n , C la ir an d J o se p h A . P e c h m a n , e d s ., G e n d e r in the W o rk
p la c e . W a s h in g to n , T h e B r o o k in g s I n s titu tio n , 1 9 8 7 , 3 1 6 p p .
$ 3 2 . 9 5 , c lo th ; $ 1 2 . 9 5 , p ap er.
Education
In d u stria l R e la tio n s R e s e a r c h A s s o c ia t io n , W orkin g W om en: P a st,
“ M ig r a n ts ’ C h ild r e n at S c h o o l ,” The OECD O b s e r v e r, J u n e -J u ly
1 9 8 7 , b e g in n in g o n p . 16 .
“T h e C h a n g in g S h a p e o f P o st-G r a d u a te E d u c a tio n ,” The OECD
O b s e r v e r, J u n e -J u ly 1 9 8 7 , b e g in n in g o n p . 13 .
“T h e C o s t o f E d u c a tio n : D o in g B e tte r W ith L e s s ,” The o e c d
O b s e r v e r, J a n u ary 1 9 8 7 , p p . 2 5 - 2 7 .
P re se n t, F u tu re. E d ite d b y K aren S h a llc r o s s K o z ia r a , M ic h a e l
H . M o s k o w , L u c r e tia D e w e y T a n n er. W a s h in g to n , T h e B u re a u
o f N a tio n a l A f fa ir s , I n c ., 1 9 8 7 , 4 1 9 p p .
J o h n sto n , W illia m B . an d A r n o ld E . P a c k e r , W orkforce 2 0 0 0 :
W ork a n d W o rk ers f o r the 2 1 s t C en tu ry. In d ia n a p o lis ,
IN , H u d
so n In stitu te , I n c ., H erm a n K ah n C e n te r , 1 9 8 7 , 1 1 7 p p.
K a m e r m a n , S h e ila B . an d A lfr e d J. K a h n , The R e sp o n siv e W o rk
Industrial relations
p la c e : E m p lo y e rs a n d a C h an gin g L a b o r F o rc e . N e w Y o r k ,
C a p p e lli, P e te r , “ B a r g a in in g S tru ctu re an d W a g e O u tc o m e s in th e
B r itish C o a l In d u s tr y ,” In d u stria l R e la tio n s, S p r in g 1 9 8 7 , p p .
1 2 7 -4 5 .
D iP r e te , T h o m a s A . , “T h e P r o fe s s io n a liz a tio n o f A d m in is tr a tio n
an d E q u a l E m p lo y m e n t O p p o r tu n ity in the U .S . F ed e r a l G o v
e r n m e n t,” A m eric a n J o u rn a l o f S o c io lo g y , J u ly 1 9 8 7 , p p . 1 1 9 —
40.
C o lu m b ia U n iv e r s ity P r e s s , 1 9 8 7 , 3 2 9 p p . $ 3 0 .
K le in , R o g e r , R ic h a r d S p a d y , A n d r e w W e is s , F a c to r s A ffectin g
th e O u tp u t a n d Q u it P ro p e n sitie s o f P ro d u c tio n W orkers. C a m
b r id g e ,
m a
,
N a tio n a l B u re a u o f E c o n o m ic R e s e a r c h , I n c .,
1 9 8 7 , 4 5 p p . (W o r k in g P a p e r S e r ie s , 2 1 8 4 .) $ 2 , p ap er.
S e e b o r g , M ic h a e l an d L arry D e B o e r , “T h e N a r r o w in g M a le -
F io r ito , J a c k , C h r isto p h e r L o w m a n , F o rrest D . N e ls o n , “ T h e Im
F e m a le E m p lo y m e n t D if fe r e n tia l,” G ro w th a n d C h a n g e, S p r in g
1 9 8 7 , pp. 2 4 - 3 7 .
p act o f H u m a n R e s o u r c e P o lic ie s o n U n io n O r g a n iz in g ,“ In d u s
W illia m s , D o n a ld R . , L a b o r F o rc e P a rtic ip a tio n o f B la ck a n d
tria l R e la tio n s, S p r in g 1 9 8 7 , p p . 1 1 3 - 2 6 .
W h ite Youth. A n n A r b o r ,
H a g g a r d , T h o m a s R . an d M ark S . P u llia m , C o n flicts B etw een
L a b o r L e g isla tio n a n d B a n k ru p tcy L a w . P h ila d e lp h ia , U n iv e r
sity o f P e n n s y lv a n ia , T h e W h a rto n S c h o o l, In d u stria l R e s e a r c h
U n it, 1 9 8 7 , 2 7 8 p p.
um i
R e s e a r c h P r e s s , 1 9 8 7 , 12 5 p p .,
b ib lio g r a p h y . (R e se a r c h in B u s in e s s E c o n o m ic s an d P u b lic P o l
ic y , N o . 1 1 .)
Monetary and fiscal policy
K e lly , M a tth e w A . , L a b o r a n d In d u stria l R e la tio n s: T erm s, L a w s,
B u ite r , W ille m H ., “ A F is c a l T h e o r y o f H y p e r d e fla tio n s ? S o m e
C o u rt D e c is io n s, a n d A rb itra tio n S ta n d a rd s. B a ltim o r e , T h e
S u r p r isin g M o n e ta r ist A r it h m e t ic ,” O x fo rd E co n o m ic P a p e r s,
M a rch 1 9 8 7 , p p . 1 1 1 - 1 8 .
J o h n s H o p k in s U n iv e r s ity P r e s s , 1 9 8 7 , 2 0 0 p p .
L au rd a n A s s o c ia t e s , A R e p o rt on a S u rvey o f E m p lo y m en t-R e la te d
L ia b ilitie s .
P o to m a c ,
51 p p.
76
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m d
,
L au rd a n A s s o c ia t e s ,
I n c .,
1987,
M c G ib a n y ,
J a m es
M.
an d
F arrok h
N ourzad,
“ In terest
R ate
V o la tility an d th e D e m a n d fo r M o n e y ,” The Q u a rterly R e v ie w
o f E c o n o m ic s a n d B u sin ess, A u tu m n 1 9 8 6 , p p . 7 3 - 8 3 .
□
Current
Labor Statistics
S c h e d u le o f r e le a s e d a te s fo r m a jo r
......................................................................................................
78
.................................................................................................................................................................
79
1. Labor market indicators............................................................. .....................................................................................................................................
2. Annual and quarterly percent changes in compensation, prices, andproductivity ..............................................................
3. Alternative measures of wage and compensation changes ...................................................................................................................................
88
89
89
N o te s o n C u r r e n t L a b o r S ta tis tic s
bls
s ta tis tic a l s e r ie s
C o m p a r a tiv e in d ic a to r s
L a b o r fo r c e d a ta
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
Employment status of the total population, data seasonally ad ju sted ................................................................................................................
Employment status of the civilian population, data seasonally adjusted ...........................................................................................................
Selected employment indicators, data seasonally adjusted ...................................................................................................................................
Selected unemployment indicators, data seasonally adjusted ..............................................................................................................................
Unemployment rates by sex and age, data seasonally adjusted
......................................................................................................................
Unemployed persons by reason for unemployment, data seasonally a d ju sted ..................................................................................................
Duration of unemployment, data seasonally adjusted ............................................................................................................................................
Unemployment rates of civilian workers, by State .................................................................................................................................................
Employment of workers by State ................................................
Employment of workers by industry, data seasonally adjusted
..............................
Average weekly hours by industry, data seasonally adjusted ...............................................................................................................................
Average hourly earnings by industry ..........................................................................................................................................................................
Average weekly earnings by industry...................................................... ...................................................................................................................
Hourly Earnings Index by industry..............................................................................................................................................................................
Indexes of diffusion: proportion of industries in which employment increased, seasonally adjusted ......................................................
Annual data: Employment status of the noninstitutional population ................................................................................................................
Annual data: Employment levels by industry .........................................................................................................................................................
Annual data: Average hours and earnings levels by industry..............................................................................................................................
90
91
92
93
94
94
94
95
95
96
97
98
99
99
100
100
100
101
L a b o r c o m p e n s a tio n a n d c o lle c tiv e b a r g a in in g d a ta
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
Employment Cost Index, compensation, by occupation and industry group ...................................................................................................
Employment Cost Index, wages and salaries, by occupation and industry g r o u p ..........................................................................................
Employment Cost Index, private nonfarm workers, by bargaining status, region, and area s i z e ...............................................................
Specified compensation and wage adjustments from contract settlements, and effective wage adjustments,
situations covering 1,000 workers or more ..............................................................................................................................................................
Average specified compensation and wage adjustments, bargaining situations covering 1,000 workers or m o r e ...................................
Average effective wage adjustments, bargaining situations covering 1,000 workers or more ...................................................................
Specified compensation and wage adjustments, State and local government bargaining
situations covering 1,000 workers or more ..............................................................................................................................................................
Work stoppages involving 1,000 workers or more .................................................................................................................................................
102
103
104
105
105
106
106
106
P r ic e d a ta
30.
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
36.
37.
38'.
39.
40.
41.
Consumer Price Index: U.S. city average, by expenditurecategory and commodity and service g ro u p s.................................................
Consumer Price Index: U.S. city average and local data, all ite m s.................................................................................................................
Annual data: Consumer Price Index, all items and major groups .....................................................................................................................
Producer Price Indexes by stage of processing ........................................................................................................................................................
Producer Price Indexes, by durability of product ...................................................................................................................................................
Annual data: Producer Price Indexes by stage o f p ro cessin g ...............................................................................................................................
U.S. export price indexes by Standard International Trade C lassification .........................................................................................................
U.S. import price indexes by Standard International Trade C lassification.........................................................................................................
U.S. export price indexes by end-use category ........................................................................................................................................................
U.S. import price indexes by end-use ca teg o ry ........................................................................................................................................................
U.S. export price indexes by Standard Industrial C lassification...........................................................................................................................
U.S. import price indexes by Standard Industrial Classification .........................................................................................................................
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107
110
I ll
112
113
113
114
115
116
116
116
117
77
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
September 1987 •
Current Labor Statistics
C ontents— Continued
Productivity data
42. Indexes o f productivity, hourly compensation, and unit costs, data seasonally adjusted .............................................................................
43. Annual indexes of multifactor productivity ..............................................................................................................................................................
44. Annual indexes of productivity, hourly compensation, unit costs, and p r ic e s ............................................................................... ..................
117
118
119
International comparisons
45. Unemployment rates in nine countries, data seasonally adjusted ................................................................................................. ......................
46. Annual data: Employment status of civilian working-age population, ten countries ....................................................................................
47. Annual indexes of productivity and related measures, twelve countries ..........................................................................................................
119
120
121
Injury and illness data
48. Annual data: Occupational injury and illness incidence r a tes...............................................................................................................................
Schedule of release dates for
bls
statistical series
Release
date
Period
covered
Release
date
Employment situation ...........................
September 4
August
Producer Price Index.............................
September 11
August
Series
122
Period
covered
Release
date
Period
covered
MLR table
number
October 2
September
November 6
October
1; 4-21
October 16
September
November 13
October
2; 33-35
Consumer Price Index...........................
September 23
August
October 23
September
November 20
October
2; 30-32
Real earnings .......................................
September 23
August
October 23
September
November 20
October
14-17
Major collective bargaining
3; 25-28
October 27
3rd quarter
1-3;22-24
October 29
3rd quarter
36-41
U.S. Import and Export
Productivity and costs:
Nonfarm business and manufacturing ..
3rd quarter
2; 42-44
1986
48
Occupational illnesses and
November 10
78
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NOTES ON CURRENT LABOR STATISTICS
This section o f the Review presents the principal statistical series collected
and calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics: series on labor force,
employment, unemployment, collective bargaining settlements, consumer,
producer, and international prices, productivity, international comparisons,
and injury and illness statistics. In the notes that follow, the data in each
group o f tables are briefly described, key definitions are given, notes on the
data are set forth, and sources of additional information are cited.
Adjustments for price changes. Some data— such as the Hourly
Earnings Index in table 17— are adjusted to eliminate the effect o f changes
in price. These adjustments are made by dividing current dollar values by
the Consumer Price Index or the appropriate component of the index, then
multiplying by 100. For example, given a current hourly wage rate o f $3
and a current price index number of 150, where 1977 = 1 0 0 , the hourly rate
expressed in 1977 dollars is $2 ($3/150 x 100 = $2). The $2 (or any other
resulting values) are described as “real,” “constant,” or “ 1977” dollars.
G eneral notes
A dditional inform ation
The following notes apply to several tables in this section:
Seasonal adjustment.
Certain monthly and quarterly data are adjusted
to eliminate the effect on the data of such factors as climatic conditions,
industry production schedules, opening and closing of schools, holiday
buying periods, and vacation practices, which might prevent short-term
evaluation o f the statistical series. Tables containing data that have been
adjusted are identified as “seasonally adjusted.” (All other data are not
seasonally adjusted.) Seasonal effects are estimated on the basis of past
experience. When new seasonal factors are computed each year, revisions
may affect seasonally adjusted data for several preceding years. (Season
ally adjusted data appear in tables 1 -3 , 4 -1 0 , 13, 14, 17, and 18.) Begin
ning in January 1980, the bls introduced two major modifications in the
seasonal adjustment methodology for labor force data. First, the data are
seasonally adjusted with a procedure called x - n arim a , which was devel
oped at Statistics Canada as an extension of the standard x - n method
previously used by bl s . A detailed description of the procedure appears in
The x -il arima Seasonal Adjustment Method by Estela Bee Dagum (Statis
tics Canada, Catalogue No. 12-564E , February 1980). The second change
is that seasonal factors are calculated for use during the first 6 months of
the year, rather than for the entire year, and then are calculated at midyear
for the July-December period. However, revisions of historical data con
tinue to be made only at the end of each calendar year.
Seasonally adjusted labor force data in tables 1 and 4 -1 0 were revised
in the February 1987 issue of the Review, to reflect experience through
1986.
Annual revisions o f the seasonally adjusted payroll data shown in tables
13, 14, and 18 were made in the July 1986 Review using the X -il arima
seasonal adjustment methodology. New seasonal factors for productivity
data in table 42 are usually introduced in the September issue. Seasonally
adjusted indexes and percent changes from month to month and from
quarter to quarter are published for numerous Consumer and Producer Price
Index series. However, seasonally adjusted indexes are not published for
the U .S. average All Items cpi. Only seasonally adjusted percent changes
are available for this series.
Data that supplement the tables in this section are published by the
Bureau in a variety of sources. News releases provide the latest statistical
information published by the Bureau; the major recurring releases are
published according to the schedule preceding these general notes. More
information about labor force, employment, and unemployment data and
the household and establishment surveys underlying the data are available
in Employment and Earnings, a monthly publication of the Bureau. More
data from the household survey are published in the two-volume, data
book— Labor Force Statistics Derived From the Current Population Sur
vey, Bulletin 2096. More data from the establishment survey appear in two
data books— Employment, Hours, and Earnings, United States, and Em
ployment, Hours, and Earnings, States and Areas, and the annual supple
ments to these data books. More detailed information on employee com
pensation and collective bargaining settlements is published in the monthly
periodical, Current Wage Developments. More detailed data on consumer
and producer prices are published in the monthly periodicals, The c p i
Detailed Report, and Producer Prices and Price Indexes. Detailed data on
all of the series in this section are provided in the Handbook of Labor
Statistics, which is published biennally by the Bureau, bls bulletins are
issued covering productivity, injury and illness, and other data in this
section. Finally, the Monthly Labor Review carries analytical articles on
annual and longer term developments in labor force, employment, and
unemployment; employee compensation and collective bargaining; prices;
productivity; international comparisons; and injury and illness data.
Sym bols
p = preliminary. To increase the timeliness of some series, prelim
inary figures are issued based on representative but incom
plete returns.
r = revised. Generally, this revision reflects the availability o f later
data but may also reflect other adjustments,
n.e.c. = not elsewhere classified,
n.e.s. = not elsewhere specified.
COMPARATIVE INDICATORS
(T ables 1 -3 )
Comparative indicators tables provide an overview and comparison of
major bls statistical series. Consequently, although many of the included
series are available monthly, all measures in these comparative tables are
presented quarterly and annually.
Labor market indicators include employment measures from two ma
jor surveys and information on rates of change in compensation provided
by the Employment Cost Index ( eci) program. The labor force participation
rate, the employment-to-population ratio, and unemployment rates for
major demographic groups based on the Current Population (“household ”)
Survey are presented, while measures of employment and average weekly
hours by major industry sector are given using nonagricultural payroll data.
The Employment Cost Index (compensation), by major sector and by
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bargaining status, is chosen from a variety o f bls com pensation and w age
measures because it provides a com prehensive measure o f em ployer costs
for hiring labor, not just outlays for w ages, and it is not affected by
em ploym ent shifts am ong occupations and industries.
Data on changes in compensation, prices, and productivity are pre
sented in table 2. Measures of rates of change of compensation and wages
from the Employment Cost Index program are provided for all civilian
nonfarm workers (excluding Federal and household workers) and for all
private nonfarm workers. Measures of changes in: consumer prices for all
urban consumers; producer prices by stage of processing; and the overall
export and import price indexes are given. Measures of productivity (output
per hour of all persons) are provided for major sectors.
79
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
September 1987 •
Current Labor Statistics
Alternative measures of wage and compensation rates of change,
which reflect the overall trend in labor costs, are summarized in table 3.
Differences in concepts and scope, related to the specific purposes of the
series, contribute to the variation in changes among the individual mea
sures.
N otes on the data
Definitions o f each series and notes on the data are contained in later
sections of these notes describing each set of data. For detailed descriptions
of each data series, see b l s Handbook of Methods, Volumes I and II,
Bulletins 2134-1 and 2 1 34-2 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1982 and 1984,
respectively), as well as the additional bulletins, articles, and other publi
cations noted in the separate sections of the Review's “Current Labor
Statistics Notes.” Historical data for many series are provided in the Hand
book of Labor Statistics, Bulletin 2217 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1985).
Users may also wish to consult Major Programs, Bureau of Labor Statis
tics, Report 718 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1985).
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT DATA
(T ables 1; 4 -2 1 )
Household survey data
the various data series appear in the Explanatory Notes of Employment and
Earnings.
D escription o f the series
in this section are obtained from the Current Population
Survey, a program o f personal interviews conducted monthly by the Bureau
o f the Census for the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The sample consists of
about 59,500 households selected to represent the U .S. population 16 years
o f age and older. Households are interviewed on a rotating basis, so that
three-fourths o f the sample is the same for any 2 consecutive months.
Data in tables 4 -1 0 are seasonally adjusted, based on the seasonal
experience through December 1986.
employment data
D efinitions
Employed persons include (1) all civilians who worked for pay any time
during the week which includes the 12th day of the month or who worked
unpaid for 15 hours or more in a family-operated enterprise and (2) those
who were temporarily absent from their regular jobs because of illness,
vacation, industrial dispute, or similar reasons. Members o f the Armed
Forces stationed in the United States are also included in the employed
total. A person working at more than one job is counted only in the job at
which he or she worked the greatest number of hours.
Unemployed persons are those who did not work during the survey
week, but were available for work except for temporary illness and had
looked for jobs within the preceding 4 weeks. Persons who did not look for
work because they were on layoff or waiting to start new jobs within the
next 30 days are also counted among the unemployed. The overall unem
ployment rate represents the number unemployed as a percent of the labor
force, including the resident Armed Forces. The civilian unemployment
rate represents the number unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor
force.
The labor force consists of all employed or unemployed civilians plus
members o f the Armed Forces stationed in the United States. Persons not
in the labor force are those not classified as employed or unemployed; this
group includes persons who are retired, those engaged in their own house
work, those not working while attending school, those unable to work
because of long-term illness, those discouraged from seeking work because
o f personal or job-market factors, and those who are voluntarily idle. The
noninstitutional population comprises all persons 16 years of age and
older who are not inmates of penal or mental institutions, sanitariums, or
homes for the aged, infirm, or needy, and members of the Armed Forces
stationed in the United States. The labor force participation rate is the
proportion o f the noninstitutional population that is in the labor force. The
employment-population ratio is total employment (including the resident
Armed Forces) as a percent of the noninstitutional population.
N otes on the data
From time to time, and especially after a decennial census, adjustments
are made in the Current Population Survey figures to correct for estimating
errors during the preceding years. These adjustments affect the comparabil
ity o f historical data. A description of these adjustments and their effect on
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A dditional sources o f inform ation
For detailed explanations of the data, see b l s Handbook of Methods ,
Bulletin 2134-1 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1982), chapter 1, and for
additional data, Handbook of Labor Statistics, Bulletin 2217 (Bureau of
Labor Statistics, 1985). A detailed description of the Current Population
Survey as well as additional data are available in the monthly Bureau of
Labor Statistics periodical, Employment and Earnings. Historical data
from 1948 to 1981 are available in Labor Force Statistics Derived from the
Current Population Survey: A Databook, Vols. I and II, Bulletin 2096
(Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1982).
A comprehensive discussion of the differences between household and
establishment data on employment appears in Gloria P. Green, “Comparing
employment estimates from household and payroll surveys,” Monthly
Labor Review, December 1969, pp. 9 -2 0 .
E stab lish m en t survey data
D escription o f the series
E mployment , hours , and earnings data in this section are compiled from
payroll records reported monthly on a voluntary basis to the Bureau of
Labor Statistics and its cooperating State agencies by more than 290,000
establishments representing all industries except agriculture. In most indus
tries, the sampling probabilities are based on the size of the establishment;
most large establishments are therefore in the sample. (An establishment is
not necessarily a firm; it may be a branch plant, for example, or ware
house.) Self-employed persons and others not on a regular civilian payroll
are outside the scope of the survey because they are excluded from estab
lishment records. This largely accounts for the difference in employment
figures between the household and establishment surveys.
D efinitions
An establishment is an economic unit which produces goods or services
(such as a factory or store) at a single location and is engaged in one type
of economic activity.
Employed persons are all persons who received pay (including holiday
and sick pay) for any part of the payroll period including the 12th o f the
month. Persons holding more than one job (about 5 percent of all persons
in the labor force) are counted in each establishment which reports them.
Production workers in manufacturing include working supervisors and
all nonsupervisory workers closely associated with production operations.
Those workers mentioned in tables 12-17 include production workers in
manufacturing and mining; construction workers in construction; and non
supervisory workers in the following industries: transportation and public
utilities; wholesale and retail trade; finance, insurance, and real estate; and
services. These groups account for about four-fifths of the total employ
ment on private nonagricutural payrolls.
Earnings are the payments production or nonsupervisory workers re
ceive during the survey period, including premium pay for overtime or
late-shift work but excluding irregular bonuses and other special payments.
Real earnings are earnings adjusted to reflect the effects of changes in
consumer prices. The deflator for this series is derived from the Consumer
Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (cpi- w ). The
Hourly Earnings Index is calculated from average hourly earnings data
adjusted to exclude the effects of two types of changes that are unrelated
to underlying wage-rate developments: fluctuations in overtime premiums
in manufacturing (the only sector for which overtime data are available)
and the effects o f changes and seasonal factors in the proportion of workers
in high-wage and low-wage industries.
Hours represent the average weekly hours of production or nonsupervi
sory workers for which pay was received and are different from standard
or scheduled hours. Overtime hours represent the portion of average
weekly hours which was in excess of regular hours and for which overtime
premiums were paid.
The Diffusion Index, introduced in the May 1983 Review , represents
the percent o f 185 nonagricultural industries in which employment was
rising over the indicated period. One-half of the industries with unchanged
employment are counted as rising. In line with Bureau practice, data for
the 1-, 3-, and 6-month spans are seasonally adjusted, while those for the
12-month span are unadjusted. The diffusion index is useful for measur
ing the dispersion of economic gains or losses and is also an economic
indicator.
N otes on the data
Establishment data collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics are peri
od ically adjusted to com prehensive counts o f em ploym ent (called
“benchmarks”). The latest complete adjustment was made with the release
o f May 1987 data, published in the July 1987 issue of the Review. Conse
quently, data published in the Review prior to that issue are not necessarily
comparable to current data. Unadjusted data have been revised back to
April 1985; seasonally adjusted data have been revised back to January
1982. T h e s e r e v is i o n s w e r e published in the S u p p l e m e n t t o E m p l o y m e n t
and Earnings (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1987). Unadjusted data from
April 1986 forward, and seasonally adjusted data from January 1983 for
ward are subject to revision in future benchmarks.
In the establishment survey, estimates for the 2 most recent months are
based on incomplete returns and are published as preliminary in the tables
(13 to 18 in the Review). When all returns have been received, the esti
mates are revised and published as final in the third month of their appear
ance. Thus, August data are published as preliminary in October and
November and as final in December. For the same reason, quarterly estab
lishment data (table 1) are preliminary for the first 2 months of publication
and final in the third month. Thus, second-quarter data are published as
preliminary in August and September and as final in October.
A dditional sources o f inform ation
Detailed national data from the establishment survey are published
monthly in the bls periodical, Employment and Earnings. Earlier compara
ble unadjusted and seasonally adjusted data are published in Employment,
Hours, and Earnings, United States, 1909-84, Bulletin 1312-12 (Bureau
of Labor Statistics, 1985) and its annual supplement. For a detailed discus
sion of the methodology of the survey, see b l s Handbook of Methods,
Bulletin 2134-1 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1982), chapter 2. For addi
tional data, see Handbook of Labor Statistics, Bulletin 2217 (Bureau of
Labor Statistics, 1985).
A comprehensive discussion of the differences between household and
establishment data on employment appears in Gloria P. Green, “Comparing
employment estimates from household and payroll surveys,” Monthly
Labor Review, December 1969, pp. 9 -2 0 .
Unemployment data by State
D escription o f the series
Data presented in this section are obtained from two major sources— the
Current Population Survey (cps ) and the Local Area Unemployment Statis
tics ( laus ) program, which is conducted in cooperation with State employ
ment security agencies.
Monthly estimates of the labor force, employment, and unemployment
for States and sub-State areas are a key indicator of local economic condi
tions and form the basis for determining the eligibility o f an area for
benefits under Federal economic assistance programs such as the Job Train
ing Partnership Act and the Public Works and Economic Development Act.
Insofar as possible, the concepts and definitions underlying these data are
those used in the national estimates obtained from the cps .
N otes on the data
Data refer to State of residence. Monthly data for 11 States— California,
Florida, Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan, New York, New Jersey, North
Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas— are obtained directly from the
cps , because the size of the sample is large enough to meet bls standards
of reliability. Data for the remaining 39 States and the District o f Columbia
are derived using standardized procedures established by bl s . Once a year,
estimates for the 11 States are revised to new population controls. For the
remaining States and the District of Columbia, data are benchmarked to
annual average cps levels.
A dditional sources o f inform ation
Information on the concepts, definitions, and technical procedures used
to develop labor force data for States and sub-State areas as well as addi
tional data on sub-States are provided in the monthly Bureau of Labor
Statistics periodical, Employment and Earnings, and the annual report,
Geographic Profile of Employment and Unemployment (Bureau of Labor
Statistics). See also b l s Handbook of Methods, Bulletin 2134-1 (Bureau of
Labor Statistics, 1982), chapter 4.
COMPENSATION AND WAGE DATA
(T ables 1 -3 ; 2 2 -2 9 )
C ompensation and wage data are gathered by the Bureau from business
establishments, State and local governments, labor unions, collective bar
gaining agreements on file with the Bureau, and secondary sources.
Employment Cost Index
D escription o f the series
The Employment Cost Index ( eci) is a quarterly measure of the rate of
change in compensation per hour worked and includes wages, salaries, and
employer costs of employee benefits. It uses a fixed market basket of
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labor— similar in concept to the Consumer Price Index’s fixed market
basket of goods and services— to measure change over time in employer
costs of employing labor. The index is not seasonally adjusted.
Statistical series on total compensation costs and on wages and salaries
are available for private nonfarm workers excluding proprietors, the selfemployed, and household workers. Both series are also available for State
and local government workers and for the civilian nonfarm economy,
which consists of private industry and State and local government workers
combined. Federal workers are excluded.
The Employment Cost Index probability sample consists of about 2,200
private nonfarm establishments providing about 12,000 occupational ob
servations and 700 State and local government establishments providing
81
M O N T H L Y L A B O R R E V IE W
September 1987
•
Current Labor Statistics
3,500 occupational observations selected to represent total employment in
each sector. On average, each reporting unit provides wage and compensa
tion information on five well-specified occupations. Data are collected each
quarter for the pay period including the 12th day of March, June, Septem
ber, and December.
Beginning with June 1986 data, fixed employment weights from the
1980 Census o f Population are used each quarter to calculate the indexes
for civilian, private, and State and local governments. (Prior to June 1986,
the employment weights are from the 1970 Census of Population.) These
fixed weights, also used to derive all of the industry and occupation series
indexes, ensure that changes in these indexes reflect only changes in com
pensation, not employment shifts among industries or occupations with
different levels of wages and compensation. For the bargaining status,
region, and metropolitan/nonmetropolitan area series, however, employ
ment data by industry and occupation are not available from the census.
Instead, the 1980 employment weights are reallocated within these series
each quarter based on the current sample. Therefore, these indexes are not
strictly comparable to those for the aggregate, industry, and occupation
series.
D efinitions
Total compensation costs include wages, salaries, and the employer’s
costs for employee benefits.
W ages and salaries consist of earnings before payroll deductions, in
cluding production bonuses, incentive earnings, commissions, and cost-ofliving adjustments.
Benefits include the cost to employers for paid leave, supplemental pay
(including nonproduction bonuses), insurance, retirement and savings
plans, and legally required benefits (such as Social Security, workers’
compensation, and unemployment insurance).
Excluded from wages and salaries and employee benefits are such items
as payment-in-kind, free room and board, and tips.
N otes on the data
The Employment Cost Index data series began in the fourth quarter of
1975, with the quarterly percent change in wages and salaries in the private
nonfarm sector. Data on employer costs for employee benefits were in
cluded in 1980 to produce, when combined with the wages and salaries
series, a measure of the percent change in employer costs for employee
total compensation. State and local government units were added to the eci
coverage in 1981, providing a measure of total compensation change in the
civilian nonfarm economy (excluding Federal employees). Historical in
dexes (June 1981 = 100) o f the quarterly rates of change are presented in the
May issue o f the b ls monthly periodical, Current Wage Developments.
A dditional sources o f inform ation
For a more detailed discussion o f the Employment Cost Index, see the
Handbook of Methods, Bulletin 2134-1 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1982),
chapter 11, and the fo llo w in g M onthly L abor R eview articles:
“Employment Cost Index: a measure of change in the 'price of labor’,” July
1975; “How benefits will be incorporated into the Employment Cost In
dex,” January 1978; “Estimation procedures for the Employment Cost
Index.” May 1982; and “Introducing new weights for the Employment Cost
Index,” June 1985.
Data on the eci are also available in bls quarterly press releases issued
in the month following the reference months of March, June, September,
and December; and from the Handbook of Labor Statistics, Bulletin 2217
(Bureau o f Labor Statistics, 1985).
C o lle c t iv e b a r g a in in g s e t tle m e n ts
(wage and benefit costs) and wages alone, quarterly for private industry and
semiannually for State and local government. Compensation measures
cover all collective bargaining situations involving 5,000 workers or more
and wage measures cover all situations involving 1,000 workers or more.
These data, covering private nonagricultural industries and State and local
governments, are calculated using information obtained from bargaining
agreements on file with the Bureau, parties to the agreements, and second
ary sources, such as newspaper accounts. The data are not seasonally
adjusted.
Settlement data are measured in terms of future specified adjustments:
those that will occur within 12 months after contract ratification— firstyear— and all adjustments that will occur over the life of the contract
expressed as an average annual rate. Adjustments are worker weighted.
Both first-year and over-the-life measures exclude wage changes that may
occur under cost-of-living clauses that are triggered by future movements
in the Consumer Price Index.
Effective wage adjustments measure all adjustments occurring in the
reference period, regardless of the settlement date. Included are changes
from settlements reached during the period, changes deferred from con
tracts negotiated in earlier periods, and changes under cost-of-living adjust
ment clauses. Each wage change is worker weighted. The changes are
prorated over all workers under agreements during the reference period
yielding the average adjustment.
D efinitions
Wage rate changes are calculated by dividing newly negotiated wages
by the average hourly earnings, excluding overtime, at the time the agree
ment is reached. Compensation changes are calculated by dividing the
change in the value of the newly negotiated wage and benefit package by
existing average hourly compensation, which includes the cost of previ
ously negotiated benefits, legally required social insurance programs, and
average hourly earnings.
Compensation changes are calculated by placing a value on the benefit
portion of the settlements at the time they are reached. The cost estimates
are based on the assumption that conditions existing at the time of settle
ment (for example, methods of financing pensions or composition o f labor
force) will remain constant. The data, therefore, are measures of negotiated
changes and not of total changes in employer cost.
Contract duration runs from the effective date of the agreement to the
expiration date or first wage reopening date, if applicable. Average annual
percent changes over the contract term take account of the compounding of
successive changes.
N otes on the data
Care should be exercised in comparing the size and nature of the settle
ments in State and local government with those in the private sector because
of differences in bargaining practices and settlement characteristics. A
principal difference is the incidence of cost-of-living adjustment (cola )
clauses which cover only about 2 percent of workers under a few local
government settlements, but cover 50 percent of workers under private
sector settlements. Agreements without cola ’s tend to provide larger speci
fied wage increases than those with cola ’s . Another difference is that State
and local government bargaining frequently excludes pension benefits
which are often prescribed by law. In the private sector, in contrast,
pensions are typically a bargaining issue.
A dditional sources o f inform ation
D escription o f the series
For a more detailed discussion on the series, see the b l s Handbook of
Methods, Bulletin 2134-1 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1982), chapter 10.
Collective bargaining settlements data provide statistical measures of
negotiated adjustments (increases, decreases, and freezes) in compensation
Comprehensive data are published in press releases issued quarterly (in
January, April, July, and October) for private industry, and semi-
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annually (in February and August) for State and local government. Histor
ical data and additional detailed tabulations for the prior calendar year
appear in the April issue of the bls monthly periodical, Current Wage
monthly periodical, Current Wage Developments. Historical data appear in
the b l s Handbook of Labor Statistics.
Developments.
Other compensation data
Work stoppages
D escription o f the series
Data on work stoppages measure the number and duration of major
strikes or lockouts (involving 1,000 workers or more) occurring during the
month (or year), the number of workers involved, and the amount of time
lost because o f stoppage.
Data are largely from newspaper accounts and cover only establishments
directly involved in a stoppage. They do not measure the indirect or second
ary effect o f stoppages on other establishments whose employees are idle
owing to material shortages or lack of service.
D efinitions
Number of stoppages: The number of strikes and lockouts involving
1,000 workers or more and lasting a full shift or longer.
Workers involved: The number of workers directly involved in the
stoppage.
Number of days idle: The aggregate number of workdays lost by
workers involved in the stoppages.
Days of idleness as a percent of estimated working time: Aggregate
workdays lost as a percent of the aggregate number of standard workdays
in the period multiplied by total employment in the period.
N otes on the data
This series is not comparable with the one terminated in 1981 that
covered strikes involving six workers or more.
A dditional sources o f inform ation
Data for each calendar year are reported in a bls press release issued in
the first quarter o f the following year. Monthly data appear in the bls
Other BLS data on pay and benefits, not included in the Current Labor
Statistics section of the Monthly Labor Review, appear in and consist of the
following:
Industry Wage Surveys provide data for specific occupations selected to
represent an industry’s wage structure and the types of activities performed
by its workers. The Bureau collects information on weekly work schedules,
shift operations and pay differentials, paid holiday and vacation practices,
and information on incidence of health, insurance, and retirement plans.
Reports are issued throughout the year as the surveys are completed.
Summaries of the data and special analyses also appear in the Monthly
Labor Review.
Area Wage Surveys annually provide data for selected office, clerical,
professional, technical, maintenance, toolroom, powerplant, material
movement, and custodial occupations common to a wide variety of indus
tries in the areas (labor markets) surveyed. Reports are issued throughout
the year as the surveys are completed. Summaries of the data and special
analyses also appear in the Review.
The National Survey of Professional, Administrative, Technical, and
Clerical Pay provides detailed information annually on salary levels and
distributions for the types of jobs mentioned in the survey’s title in private
employment. Although the definitions of the jobs surveyed reflect the
duties and responsibilities in private industry, they are designed to match
specific pay grades of Federal white-collar employees under the General
Schedule pay system. Accordingly, this survey provides the legally re
quired information for comparing the pay of salaried employees in the
Federal civil service with pay in private industry. (See Federal Pay Com
parability Act of 1970, 5 u.s.c. 5305.) Data are published in a bls news
release issued in the summer and in a bulletin each fall; summaries and
analytical articles also appear in the Review.
Employee Benefits Survey provides nationwide information on the inci
dence and characteristics of employee benefit plans in medium and large
establishments in the United States, excluding Alaska and Hawaii. Data are
published in an annual bls news release and bulletin, as well as in special
articles appearing in the Review.
PRICE DATA
(T ables 2; 3 0 -4 1 )
P rice data are gathered by the Bureau of Labor Statistics from retail and
primary markets in the United States. Price indexes are given in relation to
a base period (1967 = 100, unless otherwise noted).
Consumer Price Indexes
D escription o f the series
The Consumer Price Index (cpi) is a measure of the average change in
the prices paid by urban consumers for a fixed market basket of goods and
services. The cpi is calculated monthly for two population groups, one
consisting only o f urban households whose primary source of income is
derived from the employment of wage earners and clerical workers, and the
other consisting o f all urban households. The wage earner index ( cpi- w ) is
a continuation of the historic index that was introduced well over a halfcentury ago for use in wage negotiations. As new uses were developed for
the cpi in recent years, the need for a broader and more representative index
became apparent. The all urban consumer index (cpi- u ), introduced in
1978, is representative of the 1982-84 buying habits of about 80 percent
o f the noninstitutional population of the United States at that time, com
pared with 32 percent represented in the cpi- w . In addition to wage earners
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and clerical workers, the cpi-U covers professional, m anagerial, and tech
nical workers, the self-em ployed, short-term workers, the unem ployed,
retirees, and others not in the labor force.
The cpi is based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, fuel, drugs, trans
portation fares, doctors’ and dentists’ fees, and other goods and services
that people buy for day-to-day living. The quantity and quality o f these
items are kept essentially unchanged between major revisions so that only
price changes will be measured. All taxes directly associated with the
purchase and use of items are included in the index.
Data collected from more than 21,000 retail establishments and 60,000
housing units in 91 urban areas across the country are used to develop the
“U .S. city average.” Separate estimates for 27 major urban centers are
presented in table 31. The areas listed are as indicated in footnote 1 to the
table. The area indexes measure only the average change in prices for each
area since the base period, and do not indicate differences in the level of
prices among cities.
N otes on the data
In January 1983, the Bureau changed the way in which homeownership
costs are measured for the cpi- u . A rental equivalence method replaced the
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MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
September 1987 •
Current Labor Statistics
asset-price approach to homeownership costs for that series. In January
1985, the same change was made in the cpi- w . The central purpose of the
change was to separate shelter costs from the investment component of
homeownership so that the index would reflect only the cost of shelter
services provided by owner-occupied homes. An updated cpi-u and cpi-w
were introduced with release of the January 1987 data.
A dditional sources o f inform ation
For a discussion o f the general method for computing the
cpi ,
see
bls
Handbook of Methods, Volume II, The Consumer Price Index , Bulletin
2 1 3 4 -2 (Bureau o f Labor Statistics, 1984). The recent change in the mea
surement o f homeownership costs is discussed in Robert Gillingham and
Walter Lane, “Changing the treatment of shelter costs for homeowners in
the cpi,” Monthly Labor Review, July 1982, pp. 9 -1 4 . An overview of the
recently introduced revised cpi, reflecting 1982-84 expenditure patterns, is
contained in The Consumer Price Index: 1987 Revision , Report 736 (Bu
reau o f Labor Statistics, 1987).
Additional detailed CPI data and regular analyses of consumer price
changes are provided in the c p i Detailed Report, a monthly publication of
the Bureau. Historical data for the overall cpi and for selected groupings
may be found in the Handbook of Labor Statistics , Bulletin 2217 (Bureau
o f Labor Statistics, 1985).
Producer Price Indexes
D escription o f the series
Producer Price Indexes ( ppi) measure average changes in prices re
ceived in primary markets of the United States by producers of commodi
ties in all stages o f processing. The sample used for calculating these
indexes currently contains about 3,200 commodities and about 60,000
quotations per month selected to represent the movement of prices of all
commodities produced in the manufacturing, agriculture, forestry, fishing,
mining, gas and electricity, and public utilities sectors. The stage of proc
essing structure o f Producer Price Indexes organizes products by class of
buyer and degree o f fabrication (that is, finished goods, intermediate
goods, and crude materials). The traditional commodity structure of ppi
organizes products by similarity of end use or material composition.
To the extent possible, prices used in calculating Producer Price Indexes
apply to the first significant commercial transaction in the United States
from the production or central marketing point. Price data are generally
collected monthly, primarily by mail questionnaire. Most prices are ob
tained directly from producing companies on a voluntary and confidential
basis. Prices generally are reported for the Tuesday of the week containing
the 13th day o f the month.
Since January 1987, price changes for the various commodities have
been averaged together with implicit quantity weights representing their
importance in the total net selling value of all commodities as of 1982. The
detailed data are aggregated to obtain indexes for stage-of-processing
groupings, commodity groupings, durability-of-product groupings, and a
number of special composite groups. All Producer Price Index data are
subject to revision 4 months after original publication.
N otes on the data
Beginning with the January 1986 issue, the Review is no longer present
ing tables o f Producer Price Indexes for commodity groupings, special
composite groups, or sic industries. However, these data will continue to
be presented in the Bureau’s monthly publication Producer Price Indexes.
The Bureau has completed the first major stage of its comprehensive
overhaul o f the theory, methods, and procedures used to construct the
Producer Price Indexes. Changes include the replacement of judgment
sampling with probability sampling techniques; expansion to systematic
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coverage of the net output of virtually all industries in the mining and
manufacturing sectors; a shift from a commodity to an industry orientation;
the exclusion of imports from, and the inclusion of exports in, the survey
universe; and the respecification of commodities priced to conform to
Bureau of the Census definitions. These and other changes have been
phased in gradually since 1978. The result is a system of indexes that is
easier to use in conjunction with data on wages, productivity, and employ
ment and other series that are organized in terms of the Standard Industrial
Classification and the Census product class designations.
A dditional sou rces o f inform ation
For a discussion of the methodology for computing Producer Price In
dexes, see b l s Handbook of Methods , Bulletin 2134-1 (Bureau of Labor
Statistics, 1982), chapter 7.
Additional detailed data and analyses of price changes are provided
monthly in Producer Price Indexes. Selected historical data may be found
in the Handbook of Labor Statistics, Bulletin 2217 (Bureau of Labor
Statistics, 1985).
International Price Indexes
D escription o f the series
The bls International Price Program produces quarterly export and
import price indexes for nonmilitary goods traded between the United
States and the rest of the world. The export price index provides a measure
of price change for all products sold by U .S. residents to foreign buyers.
(“Residents” is defined as in the national income accounts: it includes
corporations, businesses, and individuals but does not require the organiza
tions to be U .S. owned nor the individuals to have U .S. citizenship.) The
import price index provides a measure of price change for goods purchased
from other countries by U .S. residents. With publication of an all-import
index in February 1983 and an all-export index in February 1984, all U .S.
merchandise imports and exports now are represented in these indexes. The
reference period for the indexes is 1977 = 100, unless otherwise indicated.
The product universe for both the import and export indexes includes raw
materials, agricultural products, semifinished manufactures, and finished
manufactures, including both capital and consumer goods. Price data for
these items are collected quarterly by mail questionnaire. In nearly all
cases, the data are collected directly from the exporter or importer, al
though in a few cases, prices are obtained from other sources.
To the extent possible, the data gathered refer to prices at the U.S. border
for exports and at either the foreign border or the U .S. border for imports.
For nearly all products, the prices refer to transactions completed during the
first 2 weeks of the third month of each calendar quarter— March, June,
September, and December. Survey respondents are asked to indicate all
discounts, allowances, and rebates applicable to the reported prices, so that
the price used in the calculation of the indexes is the actual price for which
the product was bought or sold.
In addition to general indexes of prices for U.S. exports and imports,
indexes are also published for detailed product categories of exports and
imports. These categories are defined by the 4- and 5-digit level of detail
of the Standard Industrial Trade Classification System (su e). The calcula
tion of indexes by sitc category facilitates the comparison of U .S. price
trends and sector production with similar data for other countries. Detailed
indexes are also computed and published on a Standard Industrial Classifi
cation (sic-based) basis, as well as by end-use class.
N otes on the data
The export and import price indexes are weighted indexes of the
Laspeyres type. Price relatives are assigned equal importance within each
weight category and are then aggregated to the sitc level. The values
assigned to each weight category are based on trade value figures compiled
by the Bureau o f the Census. The trade weights currently used to compute
both indexes relate to 1980.
Because a price index depends on the same items being priced from
period to period, it is necessary to recognize when a product’s specifica
tions or terms o f transaction have been modified. For this reason, the
Bureau’s quarterly questionnaire requests detailed descriptions of the phys
ical and functional characteristics of the products being priced, as well as
information on the number of units bought or sold, discounts, credit terms,
packaging, class of buyer or seller, and so forth. When there are changes
in either the specifications or terms of transaction of a product, the dollar
value of each change is deleted from the total price change to obtain the
“pure” change. Once this value is determined, a linking procedure is
employed which allows for the continued repricing of the item.
For the export price indexes, the preferred pricing basis is f.a.s. (free
alongside ship) U .S. port of exportation. When firms report export prices
f.o.b. (free on board), production point information is collected which
enables the Bureau to calculate a shipment cost to the port of exportation.
An attempt is made to collect two prices for imports. The first is the import
price f.o.b. at the foreign port of exportation, which is consistent with the
basis for valuation of imports in the national accounts. The second is the
import price c.i.f. (cost, insurance, and freight) at the U .S. port o f impor
tation, which also includes the other costs associated with bringing the
product to the U .S. border. It does not, however, include duty charges.
A dditional sources o f inform ation
For a discussion of the general method of computing International Price
Indexes, see b l s Handbook of Methods , Bulletin 2134-1 (Bureau of Labor
Statistics, 1982), chapter 8.
Additional detailed data and analyses of international price develop
ments are presented in the Bureau’s quarterly publication U.S. Import and
Export Price Indexes and in occasional Monthly Labor Review articles
prepared by bls analysts. Selected historical data may be found in the
Handbook of Labor Statistics, Bulletin 2217 (Bureau of Labor Statistics,
1985).
PRODUCTIVITY DATA
(Tables 2; 42-47)
U. S. productivity and related data
D escription o f the series
The productivity measures relate real physical output to real input. As
such, they encompass a family of measures which include single factor
input measures, such as output per unit of labor input (output per hour) or
output per unit o f capital input, as well as measures of multifactor produc
tivity (output per unit of labor and capital inputs combined). The Bureau
indexes show the change in output relative to changes in the various inputs.
The measures cover the business, nonfarm business, manufacturing, and
nonfinancial corporate sectors.
Corresponding indexes of hourly compensation, unit labor costs, unit
nonlabor payments, and prices are also provided.
Unit profits include corporate profits and the value of inventory adjust
ments per unit of output.
Hours of all persons are the total hours paid of payroll workers, selfemployed persons, and unpaid family workers.
Capital services is the flow of services from the capital stock used in
production. It is developed from measures of the net stock o f physical
assets— equipment, structures, land, and inventories— weighted by rental
prices for each type of asset.
Labor and capital inputs combined are derived by combining changes
in labor and capital inputs with weights which represent each component’s
share of total output. The indexes for capital services and combined units
of labor and capital are based on changing weights which are averages of
the shares in the current and preceding year (the Tomquist index-number
formula).
N otes on the data
D efinitions
Output per hour of all persons (labor productivity) is the value of
goods and services in constant prices produced per hour of labor input.
Output per unit of capital services (capital productivity) is the value of
goods and services in constant dollars produced per unit of capital services
input.
Multifactor productivity is the ratio output per unit of labor and capital
inputs combined. Changes in this measure reflect changes in a number of
factors which affect the production process such as changes in technology,
shifts in the composition of the labor force, changes in capacity utilization,
research and development, skill and efforts of the work force, manage
ment, and so forth. Changes in the output per hour measures reflect the
impact of these factors as well as the substitution of capital for labor.
Compensation per hour is the wages and salaries of employees plus
employers’ contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans, and
the wages, salaries, and supplementary payments for the self-employed
(except for nonfinancial corporations in which there are no selfemployed)— the sum divided by hours paid for. Real compensation per
hour is compensation per hour deflated by the change in the Consumer
Price Index for All Urban Consumers.
Unit labor costs are the labor compensation costs expended in the
production o f a unit of output and are derived by dividing compensation by
output. Unit nonlabor payments include profits, depreciation, interest,
and indirect taxes per unit of output. They are computed by subtracting
compensation o f all persons from current dollar value of output and divid
ing by output. Unit nonlabor costs contain all the components of unit
nonlabor payments except unit profits.
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Output measures for the business sector and the nonfarm businesss sector
exclude the constant dollar value of owner-occupied housing, rest o f world,
households and institutions, and general government output from the con
stant dollar value of gross national product. The measures are derived from
data supplied by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U .S. Department of
Commerce, and the Federal Reserve Board. Quarterly manufacturing out
put indexes are adjusted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to annual esti
mates of output (gross product originating) from the Bureau o f Economic
Analysis. Compensation and hours data are developed from data o f the
Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The productivity and associated cost measures in tables 4 2 -4 4 describe
the relationship between output in real terms and the labor time and capital
services involved in its production. They show the changes from period to
period in the amount of goods and services produced per unit o f input.
Although these measures relate output to hours and capital services, they
do not measure the contributions of labor, capital, or any other specific
factor of production. Rather, they reflect the joint effect of many influ
ences, including changes in technology; capital investment; level o f output;
utilization of capacity, energy, and materials; the organization of produc
tion; managerial skill; and the characteristics and efforts of the work force.
A dditional sources o f inform ation
Descriptions of methodology underlying the measurement of output per
hour and multifactor productivity are found in the b l s Handbook of Meth
ods, Bulletin 2134-1 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1982), chapter 13. His
torical data for selected industries are provided in the Bureau’s Handbook
of Labor Statistics, 1985, Bulletin 2217.
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MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
September 1987 •
Current Labor Statistics
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
(Tables 45-47)
L abor force and unem ploym ent
D escription o f the series
Tables 45 and 46 present comparative measures of the labor force,
employment, and unemployment— approximating U .S. concepts— for the
United States, Canada, Australia, Japan, and six European countries. The
unemployment statistics (and, to a lesser extent, employment statistics)
published by other industrial countries are not, in most cases, comparable
to U.S. unemployment statistics. Therefore, the Bureau adjusts the figures
for selected countries, where necessary, for all known major definitional
differences. Although precise comparability may not be achieved, these
adjusted figures provide a better basis for international comparisons than
the figures regularly published by each country.
D efinitions
For the principal U.S. definitions of the labor force, employment, and
unemployment, see the Notes section on EMPLOYMENT DATA: House
hold Survey Data.
N otes on the data
The adjusted statistics have been adapted to the age at which compulsory
schooling ends in each country, rather than to the U.S. standard of 16 years
o f age and over. Therefore, the adjusted statistics relate to the population
age 16 and over in France, Sweden, and from 1973 onward, the United
Kingdom; 16 and over in Canada, Australia, Japan, Germany, the Nether
lands, and prior to 1973, the United Kingdom; and 14 and over in Italy. The
institutional population is included in the denominator o f the labor force
participation rates and employment-population ratios for Japan and Ger
many; it is excluded for the United States and the other countries.
In the U.S. labor force survey, persons on layoff who are awaiting recall
to their job are classified as unemployed. European and Japanese layoff
practices are quite different in nature from those in the United States;
therefore, strict application o f the U.S. definition has not been made on this
point. For further information, see Monthly Labor Review , December
1981, pp. 8 -1 1 .
The figures for one or more recent years for France, Germany, Italy, the
Netherlands, and the United Kingdom are calculated using adjustment
factors based on labor force surveys for earlier years and are considered
preliminary. The recent-year measures for these countries are, therefore,
subject to revision whenever data from more current labor force surveys
become available.
A dditional sou rces o f inform ation
For further information, see International Comparisons of Unemploy
ment , Bulletin 1979 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1978), Appendix B and
unpublished Supplements to Appendix B available on request. The statis
tics are also analyzed periodically in the Monthly Labor Review. Additional
historical data, generally beginning with 1959, are published in the Hand
book of Labor Statistics and are available in unpublished statistical supple
ments to Bulletin 1979.
M anufactu rin g productivity and labor costs
D escription o f the series
Table 47 presents comparative measures of manufacturing labor produc
tivity, hourly compensation costs, and unit labor costs for the United
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States, Canada, Japan, and nine European countries. These measures are
limited to trend comparisons— that is, intercountry series of changes over
time— rather than level comparisons because reliable international com
parisons of the levels of manufacturing output are unavailable.
D efinitions
Output is constant value output (value added), generally taken from the
national accounts of each country. While the national accounting methods
for measuring real output differ considerably among the 12 countries, the
use of different procedures does not, in itself, connote lack of comparabil
ity— rather, it reflects differences among countries in the availability and
reliability of underlying data series.
Hours refer to all employed persons including the self-employed in the
United States and Canada; to all wage and salary employees in the other
countries. The U .S. hours measure is hours paid; the hours measures for the
other countries are hours worked.
Compensation (labor cost) includes all payments in cash or kind made
directly to employees plus employer expenditures for legally required in
surance programs and contractual and private benefit plans. In addition, for
some countries, compensation is adjusted for other significant taxes on
payrolls or employment (or reduced to reflect subsidies), even if they are
not for the direct benefit of workers, because such taxes are regarded as
labor costs. However, compensation does not include all items of labor
cost. The costs of recruitment, employee training, and plant facilities and
services— such as cafeterias and medical clinics— are not covered because
data are not available for most countries. Self-employed workers are in
cluded in the U .S. and Canadian compensation figures by assuming that
their hourly compensation is equal to the average for wage and salary
employees.
N otes on the data
For most of the countries, the measures refer to total manufacturing as
defined by the International Standard Industrial Classification. However,
the measures for France (beginning 1959), Italy (beginning 1970), and the
United Kingdom (beginning 1971), refer to manufacturing and mining less
energy-related products and the figures for the Netherlands exclude
petroleum refining from 1969 to 1976. For all countries, manufacturing
includes the activities of government enterprises.
The figures for one or more recent years are generally based on current
indicators of manufacturing output, employment, hours, and hourly com
pensation and are considered preliminary until the national accounts and
other statistics used for the long-term measures become available.
A dditional sources o f inform ation
For additional information, see the b l s Handbook of Methods , Bulletin
2134-1 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1982), chapter 16 and periodic Monthly
Labor Review articles. Historical data are provided in the Bureau’s Hand
book of Labor Statistics, Bulletin 2217, 1985. The statistics are issued
twice per year— in a news release (generally in May) and in a Monthly
Labor Review article (generally in December).
OCCUPATIONAL INJURY AND ILLNESS DATA
(T able 48)
D escription o f the series
The Annual Survey of Occupational Injuries and Illnesses is designed to
collect data on injuries and illnesses based on records which employers in
the following industries maintain under the Occupational Safety and Health
Act o f 1970: agriculture, forestry, and fishing; oil and gas extraction;
construction; manufacturing; transportation and public utilities; wholesale
and retail trade; finance, insurance, and real estate; and services. Excluded
from the survey are self-employed individuals, farmers with fewer than 11
employees, employers regulated by other Federal safety and health laws,
and Federal, State, and local government agencies.
Because the survey is a Federal-State cooperative program and the data
must meet the needs of participating State agencies, an independent sam
ple is selected for each State. The sample is selected to represent all pri
vate industries in the States and territories. The sample size for the
survey is dependent upon (1) the characteristics for which estimates are
needed; (2) the industries for which estimates are desired; (3) the charac
teristics of the population being sampled; (4) the target reliability of the
estimates; and (5) the survey design employed.
While there are many characteristics upon which the sample design could
be based, the total recorded case incidence rate is used because it is one of
the most important characteristics and the least variable; therefore, it re
quires the smallest sample size.
The survey is based on stratified random sampling with a Neyman
allocation and a ratio estimator. The characteristics used to stratify the
establishments are the Standard Industrial Classification (sic) code and size
o f employment.
D efinitions
Recordable occupational injuries and illnesses are: (1) occupational
deaths, regardless of the time between injury and death, or the length o f the
illness; or (2) nonfatal occupational illnesses; or (3) nonfatal occupational
injuries which involve one or more of the following: loss of consciousness,
restriction o f work or motion, transfer to another job, or medical treatment
(other than first aid).
Occupational injury is any injury such as a cut, fracture, sprain, ampu
tation, and so forth, which results from a work accident or from exposure
involving a single incident in the work environment.
Occupational illness is an abnormal condition or disorder, other than
one resulting from an occupational injury, caused by exposure to environ
mental factors associated with employment. It includes acute and chronic
illnesses or disease which may be caused by inhalation, absorption, inges
tion, or direct contact.
Lost workday cases are cases which involve days away from work, or
days o f restricted work activity, or both.
Lost workday cases involving restricted work activity are those cases
which result in restricted work activity only.
Lost workdays away from work are the number o f workdays (consec
utive or not) on which the employee would have worked but could not
because o f occupational injury or illness.
Lost workdays— restricted work activity are the number of workdays
(consecutive or not) on which, because of injury or illness: (1) the em
ployee was assigned to another job on a temporary basis; or (2) the em
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ployee worked at a permanent job less than full time; or (3) the employee
worked at a permanently assigned job but could not perform all duties
normally connected with it.
The number of days away from work or days of restricted work
activity does not include the day of injury or onset of illness or any days
on which the employee would not have worked even though able to work.
Incidence rates represent the number of injuries and/or illnesses or lost
workdays per 100 full-time workers.
N otes on the data
Estimates are made for industries and employment-size classes and for
severity classification: fatalities, lost workday cases, and nonfatal cases
without lost workdays. Lost workday cases are separated into those where
the employee would have worked but could not and those in which work
activity was restricted. Estimates of the number o f cases and the number of
days lost are made for both categories.
Most of the estimates are in the form of incidence rates, defined as the
number of injuries and illnesses, or lost workdays, per 100 full-time em
ployees. For this purpose, 200,000 employee hours represent 100 em
ployee years (2,000 hours per employee). Only a few of the available
measures are included in the Handbook of Labor Statistics. Full detail is
presented in the annual bulletin, Occupational Injuries and Illnesses in the
United States, by Industry.
Comparable data for individual States are available from the bls Office
of Occupational Safety and Health Statistics.
Mining and railroad data are furnished to bls by the Mine Safety and
Health Administration and the Federal Railroad Administration, respec
tively. Data from these organizations are included in bls and State publica
tions. Federal employee experience is compiled and published by the Occu
pational Safety and Health Administration. Data on State and local
government employees are collected by about half of the States and territo
ries; these data are not compiled nationally.
A dditional sources o f inform ation
The Supplementary Data System provides detailed information describ
ing various factors associated with work-related injuries and illnesses.
These data are obtained from information reported by employers to State
workers’ compensation agencies. The Work Injury Report program exam
ines selected types of accidents through an employee survey which focuses
on the circumstances surrounding the injury. These data are not included
in the Handbook of Labor Statistics but are available from the bls Office
of Occupational Safety and Health Statistics.
The definitions of occupational injuries and illnesses and lost workdays
are from Recordkeeping Requirements under the Occupational Safety and
Health Act of 1970. For additional data, see Occupational Injuries and
Illnesses in the United States, by Industry, annual Bureau o f Labor
Statistics bulletin; bls Handbook of Methods, Bulletin 2134-1 (Bureau of
Labor Statistics, 1982), chapter 17; Handbook of Labor Statistics , Bulletin
2217 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1985), pp. 411-14; annual reports in the
Monthly Labor Review, and annual U .S. Department of Labor press
releases.
87
M O N T H L Y L A B O R R E V IE W
1.
S ep tem b er 19 8 7
•
Current Labor Statistics:
Com parative Indicators
Labor market indicators
1987
1986
1985
Selected indicators
1986
1985
IV
III
II
I
IV
III
II
I
Employment data
Employment status of the civilian noninstitutionalized population
(household survey)1
Labor force participation rate....................................................
Employment-population ratio.....................................................
Unemployment rate ...................................................................
M en....................................... ..................................................
16 to 24 years ......................................................................
25 years and over.................................................................
Women ....................................................................................
16 to 24 years ......................................................................
25 years and over.................................................................
Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over......................... .......
64.8
60.1
7.2
7.0
14.1
5.3
7.4
13.0
5.9
2.0
65.3
60.7
7.0
6.9
13.7
5.4
7.1
12.8
5.5
1.9
64.7
60.1
7.2
7.0
14.0
5.3
7.4
12.9
5.9
2.0
64.9
60.3
7.1
6.9
14.2
5.2
7.3
13.1
5.6
1.9
65.1
60.5
7.1
6.9
13.5
5.3
7.3
13.1
5.7
1.9
65.2
60.6
7.1
7.0
14.2
5.3
7.2
13.1
5.7
1.9
65.3
60.8
6.9
6.9
13.7
5.4
6.9
12.6
5.4
1.9
65.4
60.9
6.9
6.9
13.4
5.4
6.8
12.5
5.3
1.8
65.5
61.1
6.7
6.7
13.4
5.2
6.6
12.6
5.1
1.8
65.5
61.5
6.2
6.3
13.1
4.8
6.1
11.8
4.6
1.7
Total ..............................................................................................
Private sector .............................................................................
Goods-producing........................................................................
Manufacturing ..........................................................................
Service-producing ....................................................... ...............
97,519
81,125
24,859
19,260
72,660
99,610
82,900
24,681
18,994
74,930
97,775
81,303
24,788
19,183
72,987
98,444
81,905
24,788
19,133
73,656
98,901
82,299
24,767
19,086
74,134
99,321
82,670
24,702
19,003
74,619
99,804
83,119
24,629
18,939
75,175
100,397
83,498
24,624
18,953
75,773
101,133
84,183
24,733
18,979
76,399
101,708
84,675
24,757
19,015
76,951
Average hours:
Private sector.............................................................................
Manufacturing .......................................................................
Overtime........................................... ...................................
34.9
40.5
3.3
34.8
40.7
3.4
34.9
40.6
3.3
34.9
40.8
3.4
34.9
40.7
3.4
34.8
40.7
3.4
34.7
40.7
3.5
34.7
40.8
3.5
34.8
41.0
3.6
34.8
40.9
3.7
Percent change in the ECI, compensation:
All workers (excluding farm, household, and Federal workers) ...
Private industry workers ...........................................................
Goods-producing2 .................................................................
Service-producing2 ..................................... ..........................
State and local government workers........................................
4.3
3.9
3.4
4.4
5.7
3.6
3.2
3.1
3.2
5.2
1.6
1.3
.6
1.8
3.4
.6
.6
.6
.5
.7
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.0
.7
.8
.9
.6
.6
1.1
.7
.6
.8
2.8
.6
.6
.5
.6
.8
.9
1.0
.5
1.3
.8
0.7
.7
.7
.7
.3
Workers by bargaining status (private industry):
Union......................................... ....... .................... ...................
Nonunion ........................................................ ............... ....... ...
2.6
4.6
2.1
3.6
.8
1.4
.5
.6
1.0
1.2
.2
.9
.5
.8
.3
.7
.5
1.1
.5
.7
Employment, nonagricultural (payroll data), in thousands:1
Employment Cost Index
1 Quarterly data seasonally adjusted.
2 Goods-producing industries include mining, construction, and manufacturing. Service-
88
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
producing industries include all other private sector industries.
2.
Annual and quarterly percent changes in compensation, prices, and productivity
1985
Selected measures
1985
III
C o m p e n s a tio n d a ta
1986
1987
1986
IV
I
II
III
IV
II
I
1, 2
Employment Cost Index-compensation (wages, salaries,
benefits):
Civilian nonfarm ...................................................................
Private nonfarm ..................................................................
Employment Cost Index-wages and salaries
Civilian nonfarm ...................................................................
Private nonfarm ..................................................................
4.3
3.9
3.6
3.2
1.6
1.3
0.6
.6
1.1
1.1
0.7
.8
1.1
.7
0.6
.6
0.9
1.0
0.7
.7
4.4
4.1
3.5
3.1
1.7
1.3
.6
.6
1.0
1.0
.8
.9
1.1
.7
.6
.5
1.0
1.0
.5
.7
Price d a ta 1
Consumer Price Index (All urban consumers): All items......
3.8
1.1
.7
.9
Producer Price Index:
Finished goods.....................................................................
Finished consumer goods..................................................
Capital equipment ...............................................................
Intermediate materials, supplies, components ....................
Crude materials....................................................................
1.8
1.5
2.7
-.3
-5.6
-2.3
-3.6
2.1
-4.4
-9.0
-1.4
-1.4
-1.4
-.5
-4.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
.4
4.3
.6
.7
.3
1.4
.5
.4
.6
-.9
-1.5
-.7
-.7
-.7
-.2
-.5
1.1
.8
2.0
-.4
.6
.8
.9
-4
-3.1
-4.1
.2
-2.9
-7.6
1.4
4.2
1.3
1.4
1.8
.4
1.8
5.6
P ro d u c tiv ity d a ta 3
Output per hour of all persons:
Business sector..................................................................
Nonfarm business sector ...................................................
Nonfinancial corporations 4 .................................................
1.8
1.2
2.1
2.5
17
3.3
19
16
1.6
1 Annual changes are December-to-December change. Quarterly changes
are calculated using the last month of each quarter. Compensation and price
data are not seasonally adjusted and the price data are not compounded.
2 Excludes Federal and private household workers.
3 Annual rates of change are computed by comparing annual averages.
3.
1.3
1.1
.7
2.3
1.9
1.8
2.8 1
2.3
2.6
1.9
10
2.3
1.5
1.5
1.5
.2
-.1
0
.4
.3
.3
Quarterly percent changes reflect annual rates of change in quarterly indexes. The data are seasonally adjusted.
4 Output per hour of all employees.
Alternative measures of wage and compensation changes
Four quarters ended—
Quarterly average
I
II
III
IV
|P
l|P
I
II
III
IV
|P
IIP
4.8
4.5
4.4
4.1
3.7
3.6
3.3
3.4
2.8
2.7
2.8
2.7
3.2
3.9
3.5
2.9
3.0
2.8
3.6
4.0
1.4
1.1
3.3
3.0
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.2
1.0
.7
.8
.2
.9
.6
1.1
.7
.5
.8
2.8
.6
.6
.3
.7
.8
.9
1.0
.5
1.1
.8
.7
.7
.5
.7
.3
4.1
3.8
2.9
4.2
5.5
4.0
3.8
2.5
4.2
5.8
3.6
3.2
2.3
3.5
5.2
3.6
3.2
2.1
3.6
5.2
3.4
3.1
1.6
3.6
5.0
3.3
3.0
1.9
3.4
4.7
1.0
1.0
.7
1.1
1.0
.6
(4)
.4
.2
.8
.9
.4
.9
.4
.7
.2
.6
(4)
1.1
.7
.6
.7
3.2
.5
.1
.5
(4)
.6
.5
.2
.7
.7
.5
.2
.2
.1
1.0
1.0
.4
1.2
.8
.4
(4)
.3
.1
.5
.7
.5
.8
.2
1.0
.1
.7
.2
4.2
3.9
3.2
4.3
5.5
3.1
.6
1.7
.8
4.1
3.7
2.5
4.1
5.7
2.9
.5
1.8
.7
3.5
3.1
2.3
3.4
5.4
2.3
.5
1.6
.2
3.5
3.1
2.0
3.5
5.4
2.3
.5
1.7
.2
3.5
3.2
1.7
3.5
5.2
2.0
.4
1.5
.1
3.2
3.0
1.7
3.3
5.0
2.2
.3
1.6
.3
.8
1.5
1.3
2.0
.8
1.5
2.0
2.1
1.2
1.8
2.6
2.9
2.0
2.5
1.6
2.2
1.2
1.7
1.2
1.8
1.2
1.8
1.5
2.0
.6
1.2
.7
1.6
.7
1.2
2.7
2.4
1.7
2.4
4.2
3.9
2.3
2.5
1.4
2.0
.9
1.4
1.1
1.6
1.2
1.7
1.9
2.1
Average hourly compensation:1
Employment Cost Index—compensation:
Employment Cost Index—wages and salaries:
Negotiated wage adjustments from settlements:3
Negotiated wage and benefit adjustments from settlements:5
1 Seasonally adjusted.
2 Excludes Federal and household workers.
3 Limited to major collective bargaining units of 1,000 workers or more. The
most recent data are preliminary.
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
1987
1986
1987
1986
Components
4 Data round to zero.
5 Limited to major collective bargaining units of 5,000 workers or more. The
most recent data are preliminary,
- Data not available.
89
M O N T H L Y L A B O R R E V IE W
4.
S ep tem b er 1 9 8 7
•
Current Labor Statistics:
Employment D ata
Employment status of the total population, by sex, monthly data seasonally adjusted
(Numbers in thousands)
Annual average
1986
1987
Employment status
1985
1986
179,912
117,167
65.1
108,856
182,293
119,540
65.6
111,303
60.5
1,706
107,150
3,179
103,971
8,312
7.1
62,744
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
182,354 182,525
119,789 119,821
65.7
65.6
111,559 111,764
182,713
119,988
65.7
111,703
182,935
120,163
65.7
111,941
183,114
120,426
65.8
112,183
183,297
120,336
65.7
112,387
183,575
120,782
65.8
112,759
183,738
121,089
65.9
113,122
183,915
120,958
65.8
113,104
184,079
121,070
65.8
113,570
184,259 184,421
121,719 121,235
66.1
65.7
114,173 113,975
184,605
121,672
65.9
114,447
61.1
1,706
109,597
3,163
106,434
8,237
6.9
62,752
61.2
61.2
1,672 1,697
109,887 110,067
3,124 3,057
106,763 107,010
8,230 8,057
6.9
6.7
62,565 62,704
61.1
1,716
109,987
3,142
106,845
8,285
6.9
62,725
61.2
1,749
110,192
3,162
107,030
8,222
6.8
62,772
61.3
1,751
110,432
3,215
107,217
8,243
6.8
62,688
61.3
1,750
110,637
3,161
107,476
7,949
6.6
62,961
61.4
1,748
111,011
3,145
107,866
8,023
6.6
62,793
61.6
1,740
111,382
3,236
108,146
7,967
6.6
62,649
61.5
1,736
111,368
3,284
108,084
7,854
6.5
62,957
61.7
1,735
111,835
3,290
108,545
7,500
6.2
63,009
62.0
1,726
112,447
3,335
109,112
7,546
6.2
62,540
61.8
1,718
112,257
3,178
109,079
7,260
6.0
63,187
62.0
1,720
112,727
3,219
109,508
7,224
5.9
62,933
86,025
65,967
76.7
61,447
87,349
66,973
76.7
62,443
87,373 87,460
66,968 66,911
76.5
76.6
62,402 62,483
87,556
67,128
76.7
62,528
87,682
67,130
76.6
62,565
87,773
67,407
76.8
62,833
87,868
67,425
76.7
62,986
88,020
67,672
76.9
63,187
88,099
67,764
76.9
63,335
88,186
67,644
76.7
63,282
88,271
67,603
76.6
63,417
88,361
67,816
76.7
63,562
88,442
67,556
76.4
63,471
88,534
67,656
76.4
63,715
71.4
1,556
59,891
4,521
6.9
71.5
1,551
60,892
4,530
6.8
71.4
71.4
1,541
1,518
60,884 60,942
4,566 4,428
6.8
6.6
71.4
1,560
60,968
4,600
6.9
71.4
1,590
60,975
4,565
6.8
71.6
1,592
61,241
4,574
6.8
71.7
1,593
61,393
4,439
6.6
71.8
1,591
61,596
4,484
6.6
71.9
1,584
61,751
4,429
6.5
71.8
1,575
61,707
4,362
6.4
71.8
1,575
61,842
4,186
6.2
71.9
1,566
61,996
4,254
6.3
71.8
1,559
61,912
4,085
6.0
72.0
1,561
62,154
3,941
5.8
93,886
51,200
54.5
47,409
94,944
52,568
55.4
48,861
94,981 95,065
52,821 52,910
55.7
55.6
49,157 49,281
95,156
52,860
55.6
49,175
95,253
53,033
55.7
49,376
95,341
53,019
55.6
49,350
95,429
52,911
55.4
49,401
95,556
53,110
55.6
49,572
95,639
53,325
55.8
49,787
95,729
53,314
55.7
49,822
95,808
53,467
55.8
50,153
95,898
53,903
56.2
50,611
95,979,
53,679 Í
55.9!
50,5041
96,071
54,016
56.2
50,733
50.5
150
47,259
3,791
7.4
51.5
155
48,706
3,707
7.1
51.8
51.8
154
156
49,003 49,125
3,664 3,629
6.9
6.9
51.7
156
49,019
3,685
,0
51.8
159
49,217
3,657
6.9
51.8
159
49,191
3,669
6.9
51.8
157
49,244
3,510
6.6
51.9
157
49,415
3,538
6.7
52.1
156
49,631
3,538
6.6
52.0
161
49,661
3,492
6.6
52.3
160
49,993
3,314
6.2
52.8
160
50,451
3,292
6.1
52.6
159'
50,345
3,175
5.9i
52.8
159
50,574
3,283
6.1
Apr.
May
June
July
TOTAL
Noninstitutional population \ 2 .......
Labor force2 ..................................
Participation rate 3 ................
1 otal employed 2 .......................
Employment-population
ratio 4 ...................................
Resident Armed Forces 1 .......
Civilian employed ....................
Agriculture ............................
Nonagricultural industries.....
Unemployed...............................
Unemployment rate 5 ...........
Not in labor force ........................
M en, 16 y e a rs an d o v e r
Noninstitutional population 1, 2 .......
Labor force2 ..................................
Participation rate 3 ................
Total employed 2 .......................
Employment-population
ratio 4 ...................................
Resident Armed Forces 1 .......
Civilian employed ...................
Unemployed...............................
Unemployment rate 5 ...........
W o m e n , 16 y e a rs an d o v e r
Noninstitutional population 1, 2 .......
Labor force2 ..................................
Participation rate 3 ................
Total employed2 ........................
Employment-population
ratio 4 ...................................
Resident Armed Forces 1 .......
Civilian employed ....................
Unemployed...............................
Unemployment rate 5 ...........
1 The population and Armed Forces figures are not adjusted for seasonal variation.
Includes members of the Armed Forces stationed in the United States.
Labor force as a percent of the noninstitutional population.
90
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
4 Total employed as a percent of the noninstitutional population.
5 Unemployment as a percent of the labor force (including
Forces).
the resident Armed
5. Employment status of the civilian population, by sex, age, race and Hispanic origin, monthly data seasonally
adjusted
(Numbers in thousands)
1987
1986
Annual average
Employment status
1985
1986
July
Aug.
Sept.
180,828
118,124
65.3
110,067
180,997
118,272
65.3
109,987
181,186
118,414
65.4
110,192
181,363
118,675
65.4
110,432
181,547
118,586
65.3
110,637
181,827
119,034
65.5
111,011
181,998
119,349
65.6
111,382
182,179
119,222
65.4
111,368
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
182,344
119,335
65.4
111,835
182,533
119,993
65.7
112,447
182,703
119,517
65.4
112,257
182,885
119,952
65.6
112,727
TO TAL
Civilian noninstitutional
population1 ....................................
Civilian labor force.......................
Participation rate ..................
Employed...................................
Employment-population
ratio2 ....................................
Unemployed...............................
Unemployment rate..............
Not in labor force ........................
178,206
115,461
64.8
107,150
180,587 180,682
117,834 118,117
65.3
65.4
109,597 109,887
60.1
8,312
7.2
62,744
60.7
8,237
7.0
62,752
60.8
8,230
7.0
62,565
60.9
8,057
6.8
62,704
60.8
8,285
7.0
62,725
60.8
8,222
6.9
62,772
60.9
8,243
6.9
62,688
60.9
7,949
6.7
62,961
61.1
8,023
6.7
62,793
61.2
7,967
6.7
62,649
61.1
7,854
6.6
62,957
61.3
7,500
6.3
63,009
61.6
7,546
6.3
62,540
61.4
7,260
6.1
63,187
61.6
7,224
6.0
62,933
77,195
60,277
78.1
56,562
78,523
61,320
78.1
57,569
78,586
61,355
78.1
57,544
78,634
61,219
77.9
57,585
78,722
61,412
78.0
57,607
78,802
61,409
77.9
57,595
78,874
61,703
78.2
57,883
78,973
61,826
78.3
58,101
79,132
61,948
78.3
58,227
79,216
61,973
78.2
58,325
79,303
61,983
78.2
58,410
79,387
61,976
78.1
58,567
79,474
62,156
78.2
58,721
79,536
62,057
78.0
58,620
79,625
62,116
78.0
58,793
73.3
2,278
54,284
3,715
6.2
73.3
2,292
55,277
3,751
6.1
73.2
2,275
55,269
3,811
6.2
73.2
2,185
55,400
3,634
5.9
73.2
2,286
55,321
3,805
6.2
73.1
2,297
55,298
3,814
6.2
73.4
2,303
55,580
3,820
6.2
73.6
2,289
55,812
3,725
6.0
73.6
2,254
55,974
3,720
6.0
73.6
2,300
56,024
3,648
5.9
73.7
2,411
55,999
3,573
5.8
73.8
2,411
56,155
3,409
5.5
73.9
2,441
56,280
3,436
5.5
73.7
2,307
56,313
3,437
5.5
73.8
2,343
56,450
3,323
5.4
86,506
47,283
54.7
44,154
87,567
48,589
55.5
45,556
87,629
48,879
55.8
45,869
87,689
48,950
55.8
45,956
87,779
48,920
55.7
45,905
87,856
49,014
55.8
46,020
87,933
49,043
55.8
46,067
88,016
48,923
55.6
46,058
88,150
49,161
55.8
46,261
88,237
49,348
55.9
46,475
88,321
49,355
55.9
46,498
88,395
49,466
56.0
46,751
88,464
49,774
56.3
47,094
88,546
49,714
56.1
47,126
88,632
49,971
56.4
47,288
51.0
596
43,558
3,129
6.6
52.0
614
44,943
3,032
6.2
52.3
607
45,262
3,010
6.2
52.4
622
45,334
2,994
6.1
52.3
614
45,291
3,015
6.2
52.4
612
45,408
2,994
6.1
52.4
675
45,392
2,976
6.1
52.3
621
45,437
2,865
5.9
52.5
628
45,633
2,900
5.9
52.7
641
45,835
2,873
5.8
52.6
589
45,909
2,857
5.8
52.9
587
46,164
2,715
5.5
53.2
634
46,460
2,680
5.4
53.2
615
46,512
2,588
5.2
53.4
619
46,669
2,683
5.4
14,506
7,901
54.5
6,434
14,496
7,926
54.7
6,472
14,467
7,883
54.5
6,474
14,505
7,955
54.8
6,526
14,496
7,940
54.8
6,475
14,527
7,991
55.0
6,577
14,557
7,929
54.5
6,482
14,558
7,837
53.8
6,478
14,545
7,926
54.5
6,524
14,546
8,028
55.2
6,582
14,555
7,884
54.2
6,460
14,562
7,894
54.2
6,518
14,595
8,063
55.2
6,633
14,621
7,746
53.0
6,511
14,628
7,865
53.8
6,647
44.4
305
6,129
1,468
18.6
44.6
258
6,215
1,454
18.3
44.8
242
6,232
1,409
17.9
45.0
250
6,276
1,429
18.0
44.7
242
6,233
1,465
18.5
45.3
253
6,324
1,414
17.7
44.5
237
6,245
1,447
18.2
44.5
251
6,227
1,359
17.3
44.9
264
6,260
1,402
17.7
45.2
295
6,287
1,446
18.0
44.4
284
6,176
1,424
18.1
44.8
292
6,226
1,376
17.4
45.4
261
6,372
1,430
17.7
44.5
257
6,254
1,235
15.9
45.4
258
6,389
1,218
15.5
155,432 155,502
101,801 102,015
65.6
65.5
95,660 95,861
155,604
102,122
65.6
96,177
155,723
102,158
65.6
96,000
155,856
102,297
65.6
96,147
155,979
102,455
65.7
96,281
156,111
102,503
65.7
96,533
156,313
102,746
65.7
96,717
156,431
102,893
65.8
96,995
156,561
102,797
65.7
96,998
156,676
102,894
65.7
97,340
156,811 156,930
103,573 103,106
65.7
66.1
98,050 97,716
157,058
103,272
65.8
97,958
M en, 20 y e a rs an d o v e r
Civilian noninstitutional
population1 ....................................
Civilian labor force.......................
Participation rate ..................
Employed...................................
Employment-population
ratio2 ....................................
Agriculture...............................
Nonagricultural industries.......
Unemployed...............................
Unemployment rate..............
W o m e n , 20 y e a rs o n d o v e r
Civilian noninstitutional
population1 ....................................
Civilian labor force.......................
Participation rate ..................
Employed...................................
Employment-population
ratio2 ....................................
Agriculture...............................
Nonagricultural industries.......
Unemployed...............................
Unemployment rate..............
B o th s ex es, 16 to 19 y e a rs
Civilian noninstitutional
population1....................................
Civilian labor force.......................
Participation rate ..................
Employed...................................
Employment-population
ratio2 ....................................
Agriculture...............................
Nonagricultural industries.......
Unemployed...............................
Unemployment rate..............
W hite
Civilian noninstitutional
population1 ....................................
Civilian labor force.......................
Participation rate ..................
Employed ...................................
Employment-population
ratio2 ....................................
Unemployed...............................
Unemployment rate..............
153,679
99,926
65.0
93,736
61.0
6,191
6.2
61.5
6,140
6.0
61.6
6,154
6.0
61.8
5,945
5.8
61.6
6,158
6.0
61.7
6,150
6.0
61.7
6,174
6.0
61.8
5,970
5.8
61.9
6,029
5.9
62.0
5,898
5.7
62.0
5,799
5.6
62.1
5,554
5.4
62.5
5,524
5.3
62.3
5,390
5.2
62,4
5,314
5.1
19,664
12,364
62.9
10,501
19,989
12,654
63.3
10,814
20,002
12,611
63.0
10,822
20,028
12,553
62.7
10,716
20,056
12,652
63.1
10,799
20,089
12,720
63.3
10,895
20,120
12,719
63.2
10,910
20,152
12,707
63.1
10,968
20,187
12,831
63.6
10,997
20,218
12,957
64.1
11,101
20,249
12,844
63.4
11,053
20,279
12,743
62.8
11,090
20,312
12,860
63.3
11,080
20,341
12,863
63.2
11,223
20,373
13,047
64.0
11,401
53.4
1,864
15.1
54.1
1,840
14.5
54.1
1,789
14.2
53.5
1,837
14.6
53.8
1,853
14.6
54.2
1,825
14.3
54.2
1,809
14.2
54.4
1,739
13.7
54.5
1,833
14.3
54.9
1,855
14.3
54.6
1,791
13.9
54.7
1,653
13.0
54.6
1,779
13.8
55.2
1,640
12.7
56.0
1,647
12.6
Black
Civilian noninstitutional
population1 ....................................
Civilian labor force.......................
Participation rate ..................
Employed...................................
Employment-population
ratio2 ...................................
Unemployed...............................
Unemployment rate..............
See footnotes at end of table.
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
91
M O N T H L Y L A B O R R E V IE W
S ep tem b er 1987
Current Labor Statistics:
•
Employment D ata
5. Continued— Employment status of the civilian population, by sex, age, race and Hispanic origin, monthly data seasonally
adjusted
(Numbers in thousands)
1986
Annual average
Employment status
1985
1986
May
11,915
7,698
64.6
6,888
12,344
8,076
65.4
7,219
12,290
8,006
65.1
7,136
57.8
811
10.5
58.5
857
10.6
58.1
870
10.9
July
Aug.
12,326
8,085
65.6
7,224
12,362
8,121
65.7
7,269
12,397
8,130
65.6
7,248
58.6
861
10.6
58.8
852
10.5
58.5
882
June
May
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
12,432
8,179
65.8
7,286
12,469
8,200
65.8
7,345
12,505
8,226
65.8
7,437
12,540
8,320
66.3
7,446
12,653
8,431
66.6
7,538
12,692
8,457
66.6
7,644
12,732
8,392
65.9
7,639
12,848
8,452
65.8
7,730
12,887
8,411
65.3
7,744
58.6
893
10.9
58.9
855
10.4
59.5
789
9.6
59.4
874
10.5
59.6
893
10.6
60.2
813
9.6
60.0
753
9.0
60.2
722
8.5
60.1
667
7.9
Sept.
H ispanic origin
Civilian noninstitutional
population'..........................
Civilian labor force..............
Participation rate ........
Employed.........................
Employment-population
ratio2 ..........................
Unemployed.....................
Unemployment rate.....
10.8
1 The population figures are not seasonally adjusted.
2 Civilian employment as a percent of the civilian noninstitutional population.
NOTE: Detail for the above race and Hispanic-origin groups will not sum to totals
6.
because data for the “other races” groups are not presented and Hispanics are included
in both the white and black population groups.
Selected employment indicators, monthly data seasonally adjusted
(In thousands)
1987
1986
Annual average
Selected categories
1985
1986
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
C H A R A C T E R IS T IC
Civilian employed, 16 years and
over.............................................
M en..........................................
Women .....................................
Married men, spouse present ..
Married women, spouse
present....................................
Women who maintain families .
107,150
59,891
47,259
39,248
109,597 109,887
60,892 60,884
48,706 49,003
39,658 39,634
110,067
60,942
49,125
39,735
109,987
60,968
49,019
39,691
110,192
60,975
49,217
39,780
110,432
61,241
49,191
39,952
110,637
61,393
49,244
40,093
111,011
61,596
49,415
40,102
111,382
61,751
49,631
39,913
111,368
61,707
49,661
40,100
111,835
61,842
49,993
39,967
112,447
61,996
50,451
40,029
112,257 112,727
61,912 62,154
50,345 50,574
40,057 40,241
26,336
5,597
27,144
5,837
27,474
5,812
27,388
5,832
27,249
5,926
27,323
6,016
27,333
6,041
27,400
6,005
27,525
5,985
27,817
5,906
27,965
5,933
28,213
5,972
28,495
5,921
28,458
5,939
28,426
6,013
1,535
1,458
185
1,547
1,447
169
1,504
1,434
171
1,509
1,387
174
1,521
1,460
159
1,562
1,451
164
1,582
1,425
198
1,621
1,400
152
1,650
1,370
136
1,647
1,454
126
1,739
1,418
150
1,589
1,505
175
1,695
1,442
170
1,614
1,386
165
1,619
1,429
154
95,871
16,031
79,841
1,249
78,592
7,811
289
98,299
16,342
81,957
1,235
80,722
7,881
255
98,312
16,582
81,730
1,241
80,489
8,019
258
98,586
16,446
82,140
1,247
80,893
7,956
271
98,692
16,333
82,359
1,229
81,130
7,939
275
98,846
16,264
82,582
1,216
81,366
7,993
265
98,869
16,457
82,412
1,183
81,229
8,179
252
99,164
16,443
82,721
1,189
81,532
8,056
239
99,550
16,412
83,138
1,269
81,869
8,192
246
99,748
16,532
83,216
1,204
82,012
8,187
255
99,834
16,568
83,265
1,227
82,038
8,050
273
100,112
16,484
83,628
1,266
82,362
8,117
268
5,590
2,430
2,819
13,489
5,588
2,456
2,800
13,935
5,442
2,473
2,661
13,967
5,471
2,417
2,741
13,981
5,544
2,472
2,772
13,922
5,740
2,481
2,826
14,178
5,563
2,510
2,714
14,021
5,596
2,444
2,867
13,877
5,505
2,473
2,695
14,170
5,780
2,535
2,828
14,061
5,456
2,440
2,698
14,167
5,391
2,322
2,746
13,862
5,282
2,223
2,665
14,573
5,184
2,317
2,579
15,054
5,508
2,456
2,722
14,422
5,334
2,273
2,730
13,038
5,345
2,305
2,719
13,502
5,222
2,317
2,609
13,578
5,269
2,283
2,678
13,606
5,303
2,314
2,710
13,520
5,450
2,314
2,739
13,736
5,319
2,366
2,626
13,567
5,342
2,286
2,765
13,455
5,201
2,281
2,599
13,750
5,459
2,340
2,742
13,597
5,164
2,218
2,595
13,682
5,110
2,137
2,662
13,399
4,918
5,029
2,155
2,071
2,477
2,594
14,069 14,485
5,235
2,295
2,634
13,946
M A JO R IN D U S TR Y A N D C LA SS
OF W ORKER
Agriculture:
Wage and salary workers.......
Self-employed workers............
Unpaid family workers.............
Nonagricultural industries:
Wage and salary workers.......
Government..........................
Private industries...................
Private households.............
Other ...................................
Self-employed workers............
Unpaid family workers.............
100,834 100,420 100,838
16,710 16,956 16,931
84,124 83,464 83,907
1,146
1,224
1,266
82,858 82,318 82,683
8,328
8,205
8,142
274
268
275
PE R S O N S A T W O R K
P A R T T IM E '
All industries:
Part time for economic reasons .
Slack work ...............................
Could only find part-time work
Voluntary part time ....................
Nonagricultural industries:
Part time for economic reasons .
Slack work ...............................
Could only find part-time work
Voluntary part tim e....................
1 Excludes persons “with a job but not at work” during the survey period for such reasons as vacation, illness, or industrial disputes.
92
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
7. Selected unemployment indicators, monthly data seasonally adjusted
(Unemployment rates)
Annual average
1987
1986
Selected categories
1985
1986
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Total, all civilian workers.........................................
Both sexes, 16 to 19 years................................
Men, 20 years and over....................................
Women, 20 years and over................................
7.2
18.6
6.2
6.6
7.0
18.3
6.1
6.2
7.0 '
17.9
6.2
6.2
6.8
18.0
5.9
6.1
7.0
18.5
6.2
6.2
6.9
17.7
6.2
6.1
6.9
18.2
6.2
6.1
6.7
17.3
6.0
5.9
6.7
17.7
6.0
5.9
6.7
18.0
5.9
5.8
6.6
18.1
5.8
5.8
6.3
17.4
5.5
5.5
6.3
17.7
5.5
5.4
6.1
15.9
5.5
5.2
6.0
15.5
5.4
5.4
White, total.........................................................
Both sexes, 16 to 19 years.............................
Men, 16 to 19 years ...................................
Women, 16 to 19 years..............................
Men, 20 years and over ..................................
Women, 20 years and over.............................
6.2
15.7
16.5
14.8
5.4
5.7
6.0
15.6
16.3
14.9
5.3
5.4
6.0
15.2
15.6
14.7
5.4
5.3
5.8
15.4
16.6
14.2
5.1
5.2
6.0
15.9
16.6
15.1
5.4
5.3
6.0
15.4
15.7
15.2
5.4
5.2
6.0
16.0
16.3
15.7
5.4
5.2
5.8
15.1
15.5
14.6
5.3
5.0
5.9
15.0
16.1
13.8
5.3
5.1
5.7
15.2
16.0
14.3
5.2
4.9
5.6
15.5
17.1
13.9
5.1
4.8
5.4
14.9
16.7
13.1
4.8
4.6
5.3
15.2
17.3
13.1
4.7
4.5
5.2
13.6
14.5
12.7
4.9
4.4
5.1
13.0
13.0
13.0
4.7
4.5
Black, total .........................................................
Both sexes, 16 to 19 years.............................
Men, 16 to 19 years...................................
Women, 16 to 19 years..............................
Men, 20 years and over ..................................
Women, 20 years and over.............................
15.1
40.2
41.0
39.2
13.2
13.1
14.5
39.3
39.3
39.2
12.9
12.4
14.2
38.0
40.5
35.0
12.9
12.1
14.6
40.3
38.8
41.9
13.2
12.5
14.6
38.4
38.6
38.3
13.4
12.4
14.3
35.8
37.8
33.8
13.1
12.4
14.2
36.0
35.0
37.0
12.9
12.5
13.7
36.5
36.1
36.9
11.8
12.3
14.3
39.5
36.5
43.2
12.2
12.8
14.3
38.9
38.3
39.5
12.0
12.9
13.9
37.6
36.5
38.8
11.5
13.0
13.0
38.0
39.3
36.5
10.9
11.5
13.8
39.0
40.3
37.6
12.5
11.6
12.7
33.3
31.5
35.1
11.5
11.1
12.6
31.5
31.5
31.4
11.3
11.4
Hispanic origin, total...........................................
10.5
10.6
10.5
10.8
10.9
10.4
9.6
10.5
10.6
9.6
9.0
9.2
8.7
8.5
7.9
Married men, spouse present............................
Married women, spouse present.......................
Women who maintain families...........................
Full-time workers................................................
Part-time workers ...............................................
Unemployed 15 weeks and over.......................
Labor force time lost1 ........................................
4.3
5.6
10.4
6.8
9.3
2.0
8.1
4.4
5.2
9.8
6.6
9.1
1.9
7.9
4.4
5.2
9.5
6.6
9.2
1.9
7.8
4.2
5.1
10.1
6.4
9.3
1.9
7.7
4.3
5.1
9.8
6.6
9.3
2.0
7.9
4.6
5.0
8.9
6.6
9.2
1.8
7.8
4.5
5.0
9.7
6.6
9.1
1.9
7.7
4.3
4.8
9.8
6.3
8.8
1.8
7.6
4.2
4.8
9.8
6.4
9.0
1.8
7.6
4.2
4.8
9.5
6.3
8.7
1.8
7.6
4.1
4.5
9.7
6.2
9.2
1.7
7.4
4.1
4.4
9.3
5.9
8.6
1.7
7.3
3.9
4.1
9.6
5.9
8.7
1.8
7.2
4.0
4.0
9.7
5.9
6.9
1.7
7.1
3.8
4.2
9.4
5.7
7.9
1.6
6.9
7.2
9.5
13.1
7.7
7.6
7.8
5.1
7.6
5.6
3.9
13.2
7.0
13.5
13.1
7.1
6.9
7.4
5.1
7.6
5.5
3.6
12.5
7.1
16.6
13.0
6.9
6.7
7.2
5.5
7.8
5.7
3.3
11.4
6.9
16.6
12.4
6.9
6.8
6.9
4.8
7.5
5.6
3.3
13.3
7.0
13.9
12.9
7.0
6.5
7.7
4.7
7.6
5.6
3.5
12.9
7.0
14.5
13.8
7.3
7.2
7.3
5.2
7.4
5.4
3.7
11.9
7.0
14.5
15.1
7.1
6.6
7.9
4.4
7.2
5.4
3.6
10.1
6.8
14.1
13.7
6.9
6.4
7.7
4.6
7.2
5.1
3.3
11.5
6.7
14.0
12.2
6.8
6.8
6.8
4.8
7.5
5.2
3.6
11.6
6.6
12.4
11.6
6.8
6.8
6.9
4.0
7.2
5.4
3.7
11.2
6.5
9.3
12.5
6.9
6.7
7.3
4.6
7.3
4.9
3.4
10.7
6.2
11.1
11.9
6.2
6.2
6.2
4.8
7.0
4.7
3.6
9.0
6.3
12.9
12.1
6.4
6.3
6.6
4.4
6.9
4.8
3.3
8.7
6.2
10.8
11.6
5.6
5.3
6.0
5.0
7.2
4.8
3.4
8.8
6.1
7.8
10.7
6.0
6.1
5.9
4.4
6.8
5.1
3.4
11.3
C H A R A C T E R IS T IC
IN D U S TR Y
Nonagricultural private wage and salary workers ....
Mining.................................................................
Construction.......................................................
Manufacturing ....................................................
Durable goods.................................................
Nondurable goods...........................................
Transportation and public utilities .....................
Wholesale and retail trade.................................
Finance and service industries..........................
Government workers ...............................................
Agricultural wage and salary workers ....................
1 Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as a percent of potentially available labor force hours.
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
93
M O N T H L Y L A B O R R E V IE W
S ep tem b er 1987
Current Labor Statistics:
•
Employment D ata
8. Unemployment rates by sex and age, monthly data seasonally adjusted
(Civilian workers)
Annual
average
Sex and age
1986
1985
1987
1986
Jan.
Dec.
Nov.
Oct.
Sept.
Aug.
July
May
Apr.
Mar.
Feb.
June
Total, 16 years and over....
16 to 24 years..................
16 to 19 years...............
16 to 17 years............
18 to 19 years............
20 to 24 years...............
25 years and over............
25 to 54 years ............
55 years and over.......
7.2
13.6
18.6
21.0
17.0
11.1
5.6
5.8
4.1
7.0
13.3
18.3
20.2
17.0
10.7
5.4
5.7
3.9
7.0
13.2
17.9
19.8
16.2
10.8
5.4
5.7
3.8
6.8
12.9
18.0
19.8
16.8
10.3
5.4
5.7
3.7
7.0
13.6
18.5
20.0
17.2
11.1
5.4
5.6
4.0
6.9
13.0
17.7
19.3
16.5
10.5
5.5
5.7
4.1
6.9
12.9
18.2
20.6
16.7
10.2
5.5
5.8
3.8
6.7
12.9
17.3
18.8
16.3
10.7
5.2
5.5
3.5
6.7
13.1
17.7
20.1
16.2
10.7
5.2
5.6
3.2
6.7
13.1
18.0
20.3
16.6
10.5
5.1
5.5
3.0
6.6
12.9
18.1
20.0
16.5
10.2
5.1
5.4
3.4
6.3
12.6
17.4
19.2
16.3
10.1
4.8
5.0
3.4
6.3
12.6
17.7
21.4
15.0
9.8
4.8
5.0
3.7
6.1
12.2
15.9
18.8
13.7
10.2
4.6
4.9
3.2
Men, 16 years and over
16 to 24 years ...........
16 to 19 years.........
16 to 17 years.......
18 to 19 years.......
20 to 24 years.........
25 years and over......
25 to 54 years.......
55 years and over..
7.0
14.1
19.5
21.9
17.9
11.4
5.3
5.6
4.1
6.9
13.7
19.0
20.8
17.7
11.0
5.4
5.6
4.1
7.0
13.6
18.4
20.3
16.7
11.1
5.4
5.7
4.0
6.8
13.3
19.1
20.9
18.0
10.3
5.3
5.6
4.1
7.0
14.3
19.1
21.0
17.5
11.9
5.4
5.5
4.2
7.0
13.2
18.2
19.8
17.0
10.7
5.5
5.7
4.4
6.9
13.4
18.3
21.3
16.2
10.9
5.5
5.7
4.1
6.7
13.4
17.8
19.1
17.0
11.3
5.2
5.5
4.0
6.8
13.4
18.5
21.4
16.9
10.7
5.4
5.7
3.5
6.7
13.6
18.6
21.2
17.0
11.1
5.1
5.4
3.3
6.6
13.2
19.3
20.2
18.6
10.1
5.1
5.4
3.6
6.3
13.2
19.2
21.5
17.5
10.1
4.8
5.0
3.7
6.4
13.4
20.0
23.2
17.7
10.0
4.9
5.1
4.1
6.2
12.6
7.4
13.0
17.6
20.0
16.0
10.7
5.9
6.2
4.1
7.1
12.8
17.6
19.6
16.3
10.3
5.5
5.9
3.6
7.0
12.7
17.3
19.2
15.6
10.4
5.4
5.8
3.6
6.9
12.4
16.7
18.7
15.4
10.2
5.4
5.8
3.3
7.0
12.8
17.7
18.8
16.9
10.2
5.5
5.8
3.6
6.9
12.7
17.2
18.6
16.0
10.3
5.4
5.7
3.6
6.9
12.4
18.2
19.8
17.2
9.4
5.5
5.8
3.4
6.7
12.4
16.8
18.4
15.7
10.0
5.2
5.5
2.9
6.7
12.7
16.8
18.7
15.3
10.6
5.1
5.5
2.7
6.7
12.4
17.4
19.2
16.1
9.8
5.1
5.6
2.6
6.6
12.5
16.7
19.7
14.2
10.3
5.0
5.4
3.2
6.2
12.0
15.6
16.7
15.1
10.1
4.7
5.0
3.0
6.1
11.7
15.4
19.6
12.4
9.7
4.7
4.9
3.0
5.9
11.7
15.4
18.9
13.0
9.7
4.4
4.7
2.8
Women, 16 years and over.
16 to 24 years..................
16 to 19 years...............
16 to 17 years ........... .
18 to 19 years............
20 to 24 years ..............
25 years and over...........
25 to 54 years ...........
55 years and over......
16.4
18.7
14.4
10.7
4.7
5.0
3.4
July
6.0
11.7
15.5
17.1
13.9
9.8
4.7
5.0
3.1
6.0
11.9
15.5
16.6
13.8
10.0
4.7
4.9
3.4
6.1
11.6
15.4
17.7
14.0
9.5
4.7
5.0
2.6
9. Unemployed persons by reason for unemployment, monthly data seasonally adjusted
(Numbers in thousands)
1986
1985
1987
1986
Annual average
Reason for unemployment
Aug.
July
Mar.
Feb.
Jan.
Dec.
Nov.
Oct.
Sept.
Apr.
May
June
July
3,732
958
2,774
923
1,940
911
3,611
906
2,705
906
2,018
1,018
3,565
3,522
1,969
1,007
1,913
801
4,139
1,157
2,982
877
2,256
1,039
4,033
1,090
2,943
1,015
2,160
1,029
4,063
1,078
2,985
1,025
2,205
989
3,824
1,017
2,807
990
2,199
1,014
4,044
1,029
3,015
1,041
2,145
1,038
3,984
1,072
2,912
1,027
2,190
972
3,947
1,073
2,874
1,056
2,119
1,076
3,890
1,078
2,812
1,036
2,019
1,015
3,971
1,118
2,854
891
2,054
1,084
3,839
998
2,842
1,046
2,042
1,040
3,822
1,011
2,811
1,000
2,111
956
49.8
13.9
35.9
10.6
27.1
12.5
48.9
13.2
35.7
12.3
26.2
12.5
49.1
13.0
36.0
12.4
26.6
11.9
47.6
12.7
35.0
12.3
27.4
12.6
48.9
12.4
36.5
12.6
25.9
12.6
48.7
13.1
35.6
12.6
26.8
11.9
48.1
13.1
35.1
12.9
25.8
13.1
48.9
13.5
35.3
13.0
25.4
12.8
49.6
14.0
35.7
11.1
25.7
13.6
48.2
12.5
35.7
13.1
25.6
13.1
48.4
12.8
35.6
12.7
26.8
12.1
49.7
12.8
37.0
12.3
25.8
12.1
47.8
12.0
35.8
12.0
26.7
13.5
49.0
12.4
36.6
13.0
48.6
12.7
36.0
13.9
3.6
.8
2.0
.9
3.4
.9
1.8
.9
3.4
.9
1.9
.8
3.2
.8
1.9
.9
3.4
.9
1.8
.9
3.4
.9
1.8
.8
3.3
.9
1.8
.9
3.3
.9
1.7
.9
3.3
.7
1.7
.9
3.2
.9
1.7
.9
3.2
.8
1.8
.8
3.1
.8
1.6
.8
3.0
.8
1.7
.8
3.0
.8
1.6
.7
2.9
.8
1.6
.7
2,664
P E R C E N T O F U N E M P LO Y E D
On layoff.............................................................
Other job losers..................................................
P E R C E N T OF
C IV IL IA N LA BO R FO RC E
___
10. Duration of unemployment, monthly data seasonally adjusted
(Numbers in thousands)
Annual average
Weeks of unemployment
1985
1986
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
3,143
2,232
2,075
1,025
1,049
3,349
2,118
2,101
1,003
1,098
3,085
2,114
2,055
998
1,057
3,168
2,141
1,907
945
962
14.9
7.0
14.9
6.5
14.8
6.7
14.0
6.7
Less than 5 weeks.........
5 to 14 weeks .................
15 weeks and over.........
15 to 26 weeks ............
27 weeks and over......
3,498
2,509
2,305
1,025
1,280
3,448
2,557
2,232
1,045
1,187
3,399
2,521
2,250
1,058
1,192
3,436
2,407
2,272
1,068
1,204
3,415
2,524
2,373
1,110
1,263
3,418
2,563
2,168
950
1,218
3,382
2,613
2,217
1,045
1,172
3,355
2,389
2,171
1,023
1,148
3,416
2,530
2,200
1,022
1,178
3,361
2,477
2,131
1,008
1,123
3,383
2,447
2,050
945
1,105
Mean duration in weeks ...
Median duration in weeks
15.6
6.8
15.0
6.9
15.1
7.1
15.6
7.1
15.5
7.1
15.2
7.0
14.8
7.0
15.0
7.1
15.0
7.0
14.6
6.6
14.9
6.6
94
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
11.
Unemployment rates of civilian workers by State, data not seasonally adjusted
State
June
1986
June
1987
California......................................................
10.1
10.9
75
86
6.5
7.7
11.2
70
81
5.4
Florida..........................................................
73
37
43
7.5
6.0
8.0
3.2
31
63
5.3
June
1986
June
1987
7.6
4.6
5.4
2.6
6.0
4.7
5.7
2.5
5.0
9.6
6.0
5.5
6.1
4.1
8.9
4.6
4.9
4.2
Ohio ............................................................
8.7
8.5
7.9
7.3
3.9
7.3
7.6
5.5
6.2
3.9
South Carolina............................................
6.4
4.1
8.0
11.1
5.8
5.9
3.9
6.8
9.6
6.5
4.6
5.2
7.9
11.2
6.6
3.3
4.6
7.3
9.1
5.5
8.3
7.3
State
New Jersey.................................................
Indiana .........................................................
60
55
85
84
6.3
51
43
70
78
6.2
Maine....................................... ....................
64
54
90
14 0
4.9
45
46
91
11.2
4.0
New York....................................................
North Dakota..............................................
Utah ............................................................
Vermont......................................................
Mississippi....................................................
44
37
94
4.9
12.7
58
42
31
89
48
9.8
60
NOTE: Some data in this table may differ from data
published elsewhere because of the continual updating of the
12.
Washington ................................................
database,
Employment of workers on nonagricultural payrolls by State, data not seasonally adjusted
(In thousands)
State
Arkansas ......................................................
June 1986
1,465.3
228.1
1,327.3
814.4
11,303.1
May 1987
1,486.3
217.2
1,373.7
837.3
11,606.4
June 1987 p
State
1,489.7
218.6
1,351.5
834.2
11,671.8
New Mexico................................................
Delaware......................................................
District of Columbia.....................................
Hawaii...........................................................
Idaho............................................................
Illinois ...........................................................
Louisiana......................................................
Minnesota....................................................
1,416.0
1,618.8
308.5
639.2
4,564.0
1,402.6
1,648.8
315.5
646.5
4,796.2
2,675.8
437.3
337.3
4,778.3
2,226.6
2,752.6
450.9
341.2
4,852.9
2,315.2
1,083.8
988.5
1.278.2
1.518.2
488.1
1,112.9
999 5
1,311.6
1,491.3
493.9
1,977.6
3,011.9
3,652.0
1,916.4
847.5
2,141.9
284.5
2,000.8
3.057.9
3,704.7
1.947.9
863 5
2,165.7'
278.6
1,407.4
1,662.8
318.3 North Dakota ..............................................
648.9
4,787.1
Oklahoma...................................................
2,755.9
451.0 Pennsylvania...............................................
343.6 Rhode Island...............................................
4,874.6
2,303.1
South Dakota..............................................
1,110.1
1,000.0
1,309.1 Utah ............................................................
1,489.3
505.9
Virginia........................................................
2.004.5
3.083.0
3.717.6
1.962.1
856.1
2,158.6
279.5
p = preliminary
NOTE: Some data in this table may differ from data published elsewhere
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
June 1986
May 1987
June 1987 p
658.2
470.7
498.0
667.0
499.0
500.4
665.8
501.6
508.3
3,528.6
528.4
7,969.7
2,743.5
252.6
3,575.9
535.3
8,094.5
2,823.1
252.8
3,623.9
537.7
8,159.7
2,838.6
253.5
4,510.9
1,145.6
1,071.9
4,826.4
444.9
4,600.3
1,132.9
1.094.5
4.921.5
451.2
4,613.6
1,134.5
1,109.9
4,953.7
451.0
1,344.9
259.1
1,925.7
6,568.7
637.1
1,389.8
256.2
2.011.4
6.504.4
642.0
1,393.0
260.2
2,013.9
6,505.4
645.0
234.3
2,585.0
1,790.1
600.5
2,042.2
235.8
2,631.4
1,831.0
603.4
2,058.5
238.8
2,656.0
1,849.0
603.8
2,089.3
204.1
738.4
37.0
192.7
735.2
37.6
198.6
775.1
37.5
because of the continual updating of the database.
95
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
13.
September 1987 •
Current Labor Statistics:
Employment Data
Employment of workers on nonagricultural payrolls by industry, monthly data seasonally adjusted
(In thousands)
1987
1986
Annual average
Industry
1985
1986
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Junep
July*
T O T A L ...............................................
P R IV A T E SE C TO R ..........................
97,519
81,125
99,610
82,900
99,601
82,991
99,772
83,125
100,039
83,241
100,209
83,337
100,415
83,515
100,567
83,643
100,919
83,983
101,150
84,215
101,329
84,352
101,598
84,560
101,708
84,677
101,811
84,769
102,115
85,008
G O O D S -P R O D U C IN G ........................
24,859
927
583
24,681
783
457
24,628
764
439
24,639
748
428
24,620
739
419
24,611
735
416
24,630
730
412
24,630
724
406
24,708
718
405
24,743
719
406
24,749
722
408
24,759
729
416
24,752
735
420
24,775
737
425
24,849
742
430
General building contractors......
4,673
1,253
4,904
1,293
4,924
1,290
4,946
1,295
4,948
1,291
4,942
1,289
4,946
1,289
4,936
1,277
5,034
1,311
5,038
1,309
5,032
1,291
5,019
1,272
4,999
1,267
5,010
1,266
5,009
1,267
Production workers ....................
19,260
13,092
18,994
12,895
18,940
12,843
18,945
12,857
18,933
12,851
18,934
12,849
18,954
12,879
18,970
12,906
18,956
12,884
18,986
12,916
18,995
12,925
19,011
12,939
19,018
12,946
19,028
12,967
19,098
13,028
11,490
7,644
11,244
7,432
11,199
7,386
11,206
7,399
11,181
7,382
11,169
7,369
11,174
7,385
11,175
7,393
11,157
7,370
11,179
7,398
11,176
7,399
11,175
7,406
11,175
7,409
11,179
7,423
11,194
7,432
697
494
588
808
711
497
586
753
704
497
584
745
712
499
584
735
716
499
584
732
718
499
581
733
723
499
582
733
728
499
584
733
731
500
586
726
733
501
588
733
734
502
586
739
736
504
586
743
738
509
584
742
736
510
582
746
743
519
582
748
303
1,465
275
1,431
278
1,423
265
1,423
260
1,424
262
1,421
260
1,419
259
1,422
254
1,422
261
1,419
266
1,419
272
1,423
272
1,420
275
1,423
275
1,426
2,174
2,060
2,056
2,051
2,031
2,022
2,015
2,011
2,007
2,018
2,015
2,022
2,025
2,030
2,037
2,197
1,980
884
720
2,123
2,015
865
707
2,124
2,004
848
703
2,123
2,016
861
703
2,118
2,015
857
703
2,120
2,013
850
702
2,119
2,023
858
700
2,118
2,018
853
698
2,111
2,014
851
697
2,106
2,022
859
695
2,099
2,022
854
694
2,092
2,011
847
694
2,087
2,011
843
693
2,080
2,012
843
693
2,087
1,987
805
695
367
362
359
360
359
360
361
364
363
364
366
364
366
367
370
7,770
5,449
7,750
5,463
7,741
5,457
7,739
5,458
7,752
5,469
7,765
5,480
7,780
5,494
7,795
5,513
7,799
5,514
7,807
5,518
7,819
5,526
7,836
5,533
7,843
5,537
7,849
5,544
7,904
5,596
1,603
64
702
1,617
59
705
1,619
59
706
1,616
58
707
1,619
58
707
1,621
58
709
1,627
59
714
1,631
58
715
1,628
58
718
1,630
58
722
1,635
57
725
1,642
56
724
1,633
57
727
1,633
57
730
1,645
58
736
1,121
678
1,106
674
1,103
673
1,102
671
1,102
675
1,104
677
1,101
678
1,110
679
1,106
678
1,101
679
1,103
678
1,104
677
1,107
677
1,108
676
1,127
677
1,428
1,044
179
1,457
1,023
169
1,459
1,022
168
1,462
1,021
168
1,465
1,021
167
1,469
1,020
166
1,472
1,020
165
1,474
1,017
163
1,479
1,018
164
1,483
1,018
164
1,485
1,017
164
1,493
1,018
164
1,497
1,022
164
1,498
1,025
164
1,504
1,025
164
786
165
790
151
783
149
786
148
791
147
794
147
797
147
800
148
803
147
805
147
807
148
809
149
809
150
809
149
815
153
72,660
74,930
74,973
75,133
75,419
75,598
75,785
75,937
76,211
76,407
76,580
76,839
76,956
77,036
77,266
5,238
3,003
5,244
3,041
5,237
3,029
5,202
3,035
5,255
3,050
5,251
3,053
5,278
3,071
5,286
3,078
5,304
3,089
5,315
3,097
5,333
3,112
5,348
3,124
5,344
3,120
5,351
3,129
5,344
3,126
2,235
2,203
2,208
2,167
2,205
2,198
2,207
2,208
2,215
2,218
2,221
2,224
2,224
2,222
2,218
5,717
3,388
2,329
5,735
3,383
2,351
5,735
3,385
2,350
5,736
3,382
2,354
5,736
3,383
2,353
5,731
3,379
2,352
5,728
3,380
2,348
5,725
3,383
2,342
5,741
3,386
2,355
5,757
3,391
2,366
5,766
3,397
2,369
5,772
3,397
2,375
5,775
3,401
2,374
5,780
3,405
2,375
5,790
3,412
2,378
17,356
2,324
2,775
17,845
2,363
2,873
17,866
2,367
2,882
17,913
2,371
2,889
17,939
2,374
2,892
17,980
2,385
2,901
18,009
2,379
2,906
18,007
2,363
2,916
18,080
2,358
2,929
18,140
2,373
2,940
18,136
2,380
2,944
18,197
2,385
2,953
18,205
2,390
2,956
18,217
2,386
2,960
18,278
2,406
2,968
1,890
5,709
1,943
5,879
1,943
5,887
1,949
5,904
1,958
5,911
1,960
5,919
1,963
5,927
1,970
5,938
1,978
5,946
1,979
5,956
1,979
5,964
1,978
5,962
1,978
5,976
1,981
5,981
1,982
5,986
5,955
2,977
1,833
1,146
6,297
3,152
1,945
1,200
6,323
3,167
1,952
1,204
6,351
3,183
1,961
1,207
6,374
3,193
1,971
1,210
6,395
3,204
1,980
1,211
6,418
3,212
1,990
1,216
6,451
3,227
1,999
1,225
6,480
3,235
2,012
1,233
6,501
3,243
2,016
1,242
6,526
3,256
2,022
1,248
6,558
3,272
2,032
1,254
6,576
3,276
2,037
1,263
6,595
3,287
2,039
1,269
6,614
3,294
2,044
1,276
22,000
4,457
6,299
23,099
4,781
6,551
23,202
4,798
6,563
23,284
4,815
6,594
23,317
4,835
6,615
23,369
4,861
6,644
23,452
4,877
6,661
23,544
4,912
6,691
23,670
4,950
6,721
23,759
4,984
6,748
23,842
5,020
6,773
23,926
5,044
6,800
24,025
5,083
6,822
24,051
5,085
6,851
24,133
5,101
6,884
16,394
2,875
3,832
9,687
16,711
2,899
3,888
9,923
16,610
2,872
3,881
9,857
16,647
2,882
3,881
9,884
16,798
2,902
3,890
10,006
16,872
2,897
3,907
10,068
16,900
2,900
3,915
10,085
16,924
2,904
3,927
10,093
16,936
2,912
3,929
10,095
16,935
2,916
3,927
10,092
16,977
2,922
3,930
10,125
17,038
2,933
3,943
10,162
17,031
2,935
3,947
10,149
17,042
2,938
3,935
10,169
17,107
2,937
3,951
10,219
Oil and gas extraction ................
C o n s tru c tio n .......................................
D u ra ble g o o d s ..................................
Production workers ....................
Lumber and wood products........
Furniture and fixtures..................
Stone, clay, and glass products ...
Primary metal industries ..............
Blast furnaces and basic steel
products......................................
Fabricated metal products...........
Machinery, except electrical........
Electrical and electronic
Transportation equipment............
Motor vehicles and equipment ....
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing
industries....................................
N o n d u rab le g o o d s ..........................
Production workers.....................
Textile mill products ...................
Apparel and other textile
products.....................................
Paper and allied products ..........
Chemicals and allied products....
Petroleum and coal products.....
Rubber and mise, plastics
Leather and leather products .....
S E R V IC E -P R O D U C IN G ...................
T ra n s p o rta tio n and public
Transportation.............................
Communication and public
utilities........................................
General merchandise stores......
Food stores.................................
Automotive dealers and service
Eating and drinking places.........
Finance, insurance, and real
Local...........................................
= preliminary
NOTE: See notes on the data for a description of the most recent benchmark revision.
p
Digitized for
96FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
14. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls by industry,
monthly data seasonally adjusted
Annual
average
1986
1987
Industry
1985
1986
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
JuneP July"
P R IV A TE S E C TO R ...................................................
34.9
34.8
34.7
34.7
34.7
34.7
34.8
34.6
34.7
34.9
34.8
34.7
34.9
34.8
34.7
M A N U F A C T U R IN G ..........................................................
40.5
3.3
40.7
3.4
40.6
3.5
40.8
3.5
40.8
3.5
40.7
3.5
40.8
3.5
40.8
3.6
40.9
3.6
41.1
3.6
40.9
3.6
40.6
3.5
41.0
3.8
41.0
3.7
41.0
3.8
Overtime h o u rs ...................................................
Lumber and wood p ro d u c ts ...................................
Furniture and fix tu re s ..............................................
Stone, clay, and glass p ro d u c ts............................
Primary metal industries .........................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel p ro d u c ts ..........
Fabricated metal products .....................................
41.2
3.5
39.9
39.4
41.9
41.5
41.1
41.3
41.3
3.5
40.3
39.8
42.2
41.9
41.7
41.3
41.2
3.5
40.4
39.7
42.1
41.4
41.5
41.1
41.4
3.6
40.2
39.9
42.3
42.0
41.7
41.3
41.4
3.6
40.3
40.0
42.4
42.1
41.9
41.5
41.3
3.5
40.4
39.9
42.3
42.3
42.4
41.3
41.4
3.5
40.8
39.8
41.9
42.4
42.5
41.4
41.4
3.6
40.6
39.9
42.2
42.5
42.6
41.2
41.6
3.7
40.8
40.2
42.5
42.6
42.7
41.6
41.7
3.7
41.3
40.2
42.8
42.6
42.3
41.6
41.5
3.7
40.9
40.0
42.5
42.6
42.3
41.5
41.2
3.6
40.6
39.1
41.9
42.3
42.4
41.2
41.6
3.9
41.0
39.9
42.3
43.1
43.3
41.6
41.5
3.8
40.5
40.0
42.1
43.1
43.5
41.5
41.6
3.8
40.4
40.1
42.3
43.3
43.8
41.5
Machinery except electrical ...................................
Electrical and electronic equipm ent......................
T ransportation equipm ent.......................................
Motor vehicles and equipm ent............................
Instruments and related products .........................
41.5
40.6
42.6
43.5
41.0
41.6
41.0
42.3
42.6
41.0
41.3
41.1
42.2
42.5
40.7
41.6
41.1
42.4
42.5
40.9
41.7
41.2
42.4
42.7
40.7
41.7
41.0
42.1
42.1
40.9
41.7
41.0
42.2
42.4
41.1
41.7
41.0
42.1
42.4
41.1
42.0
41.0
42.3
42.9
41.2
42.2
41.1
42.5
43.0
41.3
42.0
40.9
42.3
42.9
41.3
41.8
40.6
41.9
42.1
41.0
42.2
40.8
42.2
42.5
41.5
42.2
41.1
41.9
42.0
41.6
42.4
41.1
41.8
42.0
41.6
N o n d u rab le g o o d s ........................................................
Overtime h o u rs ...................................................
Food and kindred pro d u c ts....................................
Textile mill p ro d u c ts ................................................
Apparel and other textile products........................
Paper and allied products ......................................
39.6
3.1
40.0
39.7
36.4
43.1
39.9
3.3
40.0
41.1
36.7
43.2
39.8
3.4
39.9
41.0
36.6
43.2
40.0
3.4
40.2
41.2
36.6
43.4
39.9
3.3
39.8
41.4
36.8
42.9
39.9
3.4
39.8
41.4
36.8
43.1
40.0
3.5
40.0
41.4
36.9
43.2
40.0
3.5
39.8
41.6
37.0
43.2
40.1
3.5
40.0
41.6
37.0
43.4
40.3
3.5
40.1
42.0
37.4
43.3
40.1
3.5
40.0
42.1
37.0
43.0
39.7
3.3
39.8
41.4
36.1
43.0
40.2
3.7
40.1
42.0
37.2
43.5
40.3
3.6
40.2
42.0
37.2
43.3
40.2
3.7
39.9
42.8
37.2
43.2
Printing and publishing............................................
Chemicals and allied products...............................
Petroleum and coal p roducts.................................
37.8
41.9
43.0
38.0
41.9
43.8
38.0
41.8
43.7
38.0
42.0
44.2
38.0
41.8
43.5
38.0
42.0
43.7
38.0
42.3
43.8
38.0
42.1
43.6
37.9
42.2
44.6
38.1
42.2
44.0
37.9
42.0
44.1
37.7
42.2
43.9
37.9
42.1
44.3
38.1
42.0
43.6
38.0
42.4
44.1
T R A N S P O R T A T IO N A N D PU B LIC U T IL IT IE S .....
39.5
39.2
39.2
39.1
39.1
39.1
39.2
38.9
39.0
39.2
39.0
39.0
39.2
39.0
39.1
W H O LE S A LE T R A D E ....................................................
37.8
37.7
38.3
38.4
38.2
38.3
38.3
38.2
38.3
38.3
38.1
38.2
38.3
38.2
38.0
R E T A IL TR A D E ................................................................
29.4
29.2
29.2
29.2
29.1
29.1
2Ö.2
28.9
29.0
29.3
29.3
29.5
29.4
29.2
29.3
S E R V IC E S ..........................................................................
32.5
32.5
32.5
32.4
32.4
32.4
32.5
32.4
32.4
32.6
32.5
32.4
32.5
32.5
32.4
Overtime h o u rs ...................................................
D u rable g o o d s ................................................................
p = preliminary
NOTE: See “ Notes on the data” for a description of the most recent
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
benchmark adjustment.
97
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
September 1987 •
Current Labor Statistics:
Employment Data
15. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls by
industry
Annual
average
1986
1987
Industry
1985
1986
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
$8.57
-
$8.76
-
$8.70
8.74
$8.70
8.77
$8.82
8.78
$8.82
8.82
$8.88
8.86
$8.86
8.84
$8.90
8.86
$8.92
8.88
$8.92
8.91
$8.91
8.91
$8.93
8.95
$8.92
8.94
$8.91
8.96
M IN IN G ..........................................................................
11.98
12.44
12.49
12.51
12.52
12.50
12.57
12.63
12.66
12.56
12.51
12.43
12.42
12.44
12.34
C O N S T R U C T IO N ..............................................................
12.32
12.47
12.34
12.44
12.59
12.68
12.66
12.77
12.58
12.51
12.59
12.55
12.60
12.62
12.59
M A N U F A C T U R IN G ..........................................................
9.54
9.73
9.74
9.68
9.73
9.72
9.78
9.85
9.84
9.84
9.85
9.87
9.87
9.88
9.88
10.10
Lumber and wood products................................ 8.22
Furniture and fixtures..........................................
7.17
Stone, clay, and glass products.........................
9.84
Primary metal industries ..................................... 11.67
Blast furnaces and basic steel products......... 13.33
Fabricated metal products .................................. 9.70
10.29
8.33
7.46
10.05
11.86
13.73
9.89
10.26
8.29
7.45
10.06
11.93
13.83
9.86
10.22
8.33
7.50
10.07
11.74
13.61
9.82
10.29
8.35
7.55
10.11
11.82
13.76
9.88
10.27
8.32
7.53
10.10
11.75
13.63
9.88
10.33
8.35
7.55
10.14
11.80
13.68
9.94
10.40
8.32
7.65
10.17
11.82
13.74
10.02
10.38
8.27
7.61
10.17
11.76
13.55
9.98
10.39
8.31
7.58
10.15
11.78
13.59
9.99
10.39
8.28
7.58
10.13
11.82
13.66
9.99
10.39
8.34
7.58
10.23
11.96
13.84
9.98
10.40
8.37
7.64
10.26
11.96
13.80
9.97
10.43
8.44
7.66
10.27
11.97
13.81
10.01
10.41
8.49
7.70
10.27
12.03
13.82
9.99
Machinery, except electrical ............................... 10.29
Electrical and electronic equipment.................... 9.46
Transportation equipment................................... 12.71
Motor vehicles and equipment......................... 13.39
Instruments and related products ......................
9.17
Miscellaneous manufacturing.............................. 7.30
10.59
9.65
12.81
13.45
9.47
7.54
10.59
9.67
12.73
13.33
9.48
7.57
10.59
9.64
12.70
13.29
9.47
7.51
10.61
9.70
12.82
13.42
9.54
7.58
10.58
9.67
12.82
13.42
9.56
7.57
10.62
9.73
12.88
13.44
9.63
7.62
10.67
9.82
12.96
13.56
9.65
7.69
10.64
9.84
12.93
13.58
9.64
7.69
10.68
9.84
12.88
13.49
9.67
7.68
10.72
9.84
12.86
13.49
9.67
7.66
10.70
9.82
12.80
13.40
9.67
7.67
10.70
9.83
12.85
13.42
9.69
7.72
10.77
9.84
12.91
13.50
9.69
7.73
10.79
9.87
12.82
13.33
9.70
7.75
8.71
Food and kindred products................................. 8.57
Tobacco manufactures....................................... 11.96
Textile mill products............................................ 6.70
Apparel and other textile products.....................
5.73
Paper and allied products .................................. 10.83
8.94
8.74
12.85
6.93
5.84
11.18
9.00
8.76
13.73
6.88
5.79
11.33
8.94
8.66
13.55
6.97
5.83
11.19
8.96
8.65
12.29
7.02
5.91
11.23
8.96
8.69
12.14
7.02
5.87
11.25
9.02
8.79
12.67
7.05
5.87
11.27
9.07
8.88
12.93
7.10
5.90
11.34
9.09
8.90
12.97
7.10
5.94
11.26
9.08
8.91
13.44
7.11
5.93
11.26
9.09
8.93
13.80
7.12
5.93
11.27
9.14
8.95
14.28
7.12
5.94
11.37
9.13
8.96
14.53
7.13
5.89
11.40
9.12
8.90
15.52
7.15
5.93
11.42
9.16
8.86
14.75
7.17
5.88
11.51
Printing and publishing........................................
9.71
Chemicals and allied products............................ 11.56
Petroleum and coal products.............................. 14.06
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products..... 8.54
Leather and leather products ............................. 5.83
9.99
11.98
14.18
8.73
5.92
9.98
12.05
14.16
8.78
5.92
10.02
11.99
14.06
8.77
5.92
10.12
12.03
14.18
8.72
5.95
10.09
12.08
14.19
8.73
5.95
10.11
12.17
14.32
8.77
5.98
10.15
12.20
14.41
8.82
5.98
10.14
12.18
14.57
8.83
6.04
10.16
12.21
14.51
8.79
6.01
10.17
12.24
14.50
8.80
6.06
10.14
12.30
14.50
8.82
6.12
10.19
12.31
14.52
8.84
6.05
10.16
12.27
14.41
8.86
6.04
10.22
12.35
14.53
8.95
5.98
T R A N S P O R T A T IO N A N D PU B LIC U T IL IT IE S .....
11.40
11.70
11.67
11.67
11.77
11.77
11.90
11.90
11.89
11.93
11.90
11.94
11.95
11.95
11.99
W H O LE S A LE T R A D E ....................................................
9.16
9.35
9.30
9.32
9.37
9.36
9.47
9.47
9.49
9.55
9.53
9.53
9.57
9.56
9.57
P R IV A TE S E C T O R ..........................................................
Seasonally adjusted .........................................
D u ra ble g o o d s .................................................................
N o ndurable g o o d s .........................................................
Junep July*1
R E T A IL TR A D E ................................................................
5.94
6.03
5.98
5.97
6.06
6.06
6.08
6.07
6.09
6.09
6.08
6.09
6.09
6.07
6.07
FIN A N C E , IN S U R A N C E , A N D R E A L E S T A T E ....
7.94
8.35
8.30
8.34
8.39
8.39
8.57
8.48
8.60
8.75
8.72
8.71
8.72
8.65
8.63
S E R V IC E S .................................................................
7.90
8.16
8.04
8.04
8.19
8.23
8.33
8.32
8.37
8.43
8.41
8.40
8.38
8.35
8.34
- Data not available.
p = preliminary
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
NOTE: See “ Notes on the data” for a description of the most recent
benchmark revision.
16. Average weekly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls by industry
1987
1986
Annual average
Industry
1985
1986
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Mar.
Feb.
Apr.
May
Julyp
Junep
P R IV A T E SE C TO R
Seasonally adjusted..................................
Constant (1977) dollars ...............................
$299.09 $304.85 $303.63 $305.37 $306.94 $306.05 $308.14 $308.33 $306.16 $307.74 $308.63 $308.29 $310.76 $312.20 $311.85
303.28 304.32 304.67 306.05 308.33 305.86 307.44 309.91 310.07 309.18 312.36 311.11 310.91
170.42 171.07 170.67 171.36 171.47 170.88 171.86 171.87 169.52 169.74 169.48 168.28 169.17 169.21
538.05 527.52 522.92 519.57 526.61
527.46 526.92
M IN IN G .................................................................................
519.93 524.97 517.09 529.17 527.09 526.25 520.40 535.51
C O N S T R U C T IO N ..............................................................
464.46 466.38 471.39 476.45 484.72 480.57 462.09 469.94 467.98 460.37 470.87 469.37 485.10 480.82 484.72
M A N U FA C TU R IN G
Current dollars.............................................
Constant (1977) dollars................................
386.37 396.01 391.55 393.98 398.93 395.60 400.98 408.78 401.47 401.47 402.87 398.75 403.68 406.07 401.13
220.15 222.23 220.10 221.09 222.87 220.88 223.64 227.86 222.30 221.44 221.24 217.78 219.75 220.09
-
Lumber and wood products...........................
Furniture and fixtures....................................
Stone, clay, and glass products......................
Primary metal industries ................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products........
Fabricated metal products .............................
416.12
327.98
282.50
412.30
484.31
547.86
400.61
424.98
335.70
296.91
424.11
496.93
572.54
408.46
416.56
333.26
290.55
426.54
489.13
572.56
399.33
420.04
338.20
300.75
431.00
487.21
560.73
403.60
428.06
340.68
305.78
434.73
497.62
575.17
411.01
424.15
337.79
304.97
430.26
493.50
569.73
408.04
429.73
337.34
303.51
423.85
500.32
580.03
413.50
439.92
337.79
314.42
427.14
508.26
589.45
422.84
430.77
331.63
302.88
421.04
500.98
575.88
414.17
431.19
337.39
299.41
423.26
503.01
577.58
413.59
432.22
337.00
301.68
425.46
505.90
581.92
414.59
427.03
338.60
294.10
430.68
508.30
593.74
408.18
431.60
345.68
301.78
439.13
514.28
598.92
412.76
434.93
347.73
306.40
437.50
517.10
604.88
417.42
426.81
341.30
302.61
437.50
516.09
603.93
408.59
Machinery, except electrical ...........................
Electrical and electronic equipment.................
Transportation equipment...............................
Motor vehicles and equipment......................
Instruments and related products ...................
Miscellaneous manufacturing..........................
427.04
384.08
541.45
582.47
375.97
287.62
440.54
395.65
541.86
572.97
388.27
298.58
431.01
390.67
528.30
555.86
380.15
293.72
436.31
394.28
528.32
550.21
383.54
294.39
442.44
400.61
542.29
570.35
389.23
299.41
439.07
396.47
537.16
562.30
389.09
301.29
444.98
402.82
546.11
568.51
398.68
305.56
456.68
413.42
562.46
595.28
407.23
309.14
446.88
404.42
549.53
585.30
397.17
303.76
449.63
402.46
546.11
577.37
399.37
301.06
452.38
402.46
547.84
582.77
401.31
301.04
445.12
395.75
536.32
566.82
394.54
297.60
449.40
399.10
542.27
571.69
399.23
302.62
455.57
404.42
540.93
568.35
403.10
304.56
449.94
398.75
526.90
549.20
396.73
300.70
N o n d u rab le go o d s .........................................................
344.92
342.80
444.91
265.99
208.57
466.77
356.71
349.60
480.59
284.82
214.33
482.98
355.50
349.52
499.77
276.58
210.18
486.06
358.49
351.60
490.51
288.56
213.96
483.41
359.30
349.46
470.71
293.44
217.49
485.14
358.40
347.60
473.46
292.03
216.60
484.88
363.51
353.36
481.46
294.69
218.36
489.12
368.24
357.86
483.58
299.62
220.66
500.09
362.69
354.22
481.19
293.94
218.59
488.68
362.29
351.05
486.53
295.78
220.00
484.18
363.60
352.74
525.78
299.04
219.41
483.48
361.03
351.74
536.93
291.21
212.65
486.64
366.11
359.30
571.03
298.75
219.11
493.62
367.54
357.78
622.35
302.45
222.38
494.49
366.40
353.51
523.63
300.42
216.97
493.78
D u ra ble g o o d s .................................................................
Food and kindred products............................
Tobacco manufactures..................................
Textile mill products......................................
Apparel and other textile products...................
Paper .and allied products..............................
Printing and publishing...................................
Chemicals and allied products........................
Petroleum and coal products..........................
Rubber and miscellaneous
plastics products........................................
Leather and leather products .........................
367.04 379.62 376.25 381.76 387.60 384.43 387.21 392.81 381.26 384.05 386.46 381.26 384.16 383.03 385.29
484.36 501.96 501.28 499.98 502.85 504.94 516.01 519.72 514.00 514.04 515.30 519.06 518.25 516.57 519.94
604.58 621.08 621.62 624.26 625.34 622.94 630.08 628.28 645.45 629.73 636.55 635.10 637.43 628.28 643.68
350.99 360.55 354.71 361.32 362.75 362.30 365.71 373.09 367.33 364.79 365.20 360.74 366.86 370.35 366.06
216.88 218.45 219.04 217.86 218.37 218.96 221.86 227.84 225.29 223.57 227.25 224.60 233.53 238.58 230.23
T R A N S P O R T A T IO N A N D PU B LIC
U T IL IT IE S ..........................................................................
450.30 458.64 459.80 459.80 461.38 460.21 467.67 465.29 457.77 465.27 462.91 463.27 466.05 469.64 471.21
W H O LE S A LE T R A D E ....................................................
351.74 359.04 358.05 358.82 358.87 359.42 363.65 363.65 361.57 361.95 361.19 363.09 366.53 367.10 365.57
R E T A IL TR A D E ................................................................
174.64 176.08 178.80 178.50 176.35 175.74 176.32 178.46 172.35 174.78 175.71
FIN A N C E , IN S U R A N C E , A N D R E A L
E S TA T E ..............................................................................
289.02 303.94 301.29 304.41 303.72 305.40 312.81
S E R V IC E S ..........................................................................
256.75 265.20 263.71
263.71
177.83 178.44 179.67 182.10
309.52 312.18 318.50 316.54 316.17 316.54 314.86 310.68
265.36 266.65 269.89 269.57 269.51 273.13 272.48 271.32 271.51 272.21 272.72
- Data not available.
p = preliminary
NOTE: See “ Notes on the data” for a description of the most recent benchmark
revision.
17. The Hourly Earnings Index for production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls by
industry
____________
P R IV A T E S E C TO R (In cu rre n t d o l l a r s ) ...............................
168.6
172.7
172.6
172.7
Manufacturing......................................................
Transportation and public utilities...........................
Wholesale trade' ..................................................
Retail trade ..........................................................
Finance, insurance, and real estate1.......................
Services...............................................................
182.4
150.9
172.6
170.0
171.6
157.5
178.7
172.6
181.6
154.0
174.5
175.2
176.7
160.5
187.1
179.5
182.1
154.2
174.7
175.1
176.3
160.2
186.1
179.1
181.8
153.9
175.1
175.2
176.5
160.2
186.0
179.0
P R IV A T E S E C TO R [in co n s ta n t (19 7 7 ) d o lla rs ] .............
94.8
94.0
93.6
-
1
This series is not seasonally adjusted because the seasonal component is small
relative to the trend-cycle, irregular components, or both, and consequently cannot
be separated with sufficient precision.
- Data not available.
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
CD C
OD C
"si ^
_
May
1987
Mar.
1987
Apr.
1987
May
1987
169.1
172.2
172.6
172.9
June
1987p
172.9
_
_
-
_
-
151.5
172.4
171.0
153.8
174.3
174.6
153.7
175.0
175.2
154.1
174.4
176.2
155.1
174.8
175.9
159.8
160.2
160.2
“
“
-
-
158.1
159.0
“
-
CO C
03 c
June
1987p
July
1986
July
1986
_
Seasonally adjusted
Not seasonally adjusted
Industry
173.2
-
154.7
174.9
176.2
160.9
”
174.0
179.0
179.4
179.9
179.8
180.5
95.1
94.4
94.2
94.0
93.8
-
p = preliminary.
NOTE: See “ Notes on the data” for a description of the most recent benchmark
revision.
99
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
September 1987 •
Current Labor Statistics: Employment Data
18. Indexes of diffusion: industries in which employment increased, data seasonally adjusted
(In percent)
Jan.
Time span and year
Apr.
Mar.
Feb.
June
May
Sept.
Aug.
July
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Over
1985
1986
1987
1-month span:
..............................................................................
..............................................................................
..............................................................................
55.9
53.2
53.5
47.0
48.1
56.8
52.4
48.1
58.6
47.3
53.5
58.4
53.2
52.4
58.6
46.8
46.8
58.6
53.8
52.4
66.2
53.8
56.2
47.8
55.1
53.2
53.2
54.3
59.7
-
-
-
-
57.3
59.7
-
Over
1985
1986
1987
3-month span:
..............................................................................
..............................................................................
..............................................................................
51.1
49.7
58.6
48.4
44.9
59.5
42.4
45.7
61.1
46.5
48.4
61.6
44.3
47.6
62.4
49.7
45.4
65.7
47.0
48.4
48.6
55.1
45.9
55.9
47.6
58.1
55.1
58.6
56.5
60.3
-
-
-
-
Over
1985
1986
1987
6-month span:
..............................................................................
..............................................................................
..............................................................................
46.5
47.6
61.9
46.5
47.6
62.7
43.2
43.0
60.3
44.3
43.2
68.9
44.3
45.4
45.1
48.4
43.0
47.3
44.3
53.0
49.2
59.2
49.2
58.9
47.3
57.8
45.9
58.9
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over
1985
1986
1987
12-month span:
..............................................................................
..............................................................................
..............................................................................
44.6
43.2
63.0
44.1
44.1
43.8
46.2
40.8
45.7
41.6
47.8
42.2
49.5
42.4
51.6
43.8
54.9
44.3
52.2
44.1
55.1
42.4
58.1
_
-
-
-
- Data not available.
NOTE: Figures are the percent of industries with employment rising. (Half of
the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are centered within the
_
_
_
_
41.6
49.5
_
_
_
_
_
spans. Data for the 2 most recent months shown In each span are preliminary.
See the “ Definitions” in this section. See “ Notes on the data” for a description of
the most recent benchmark revision.
19. Annual data: Employment status of the noninstitutional population
(Numbers in thousands)
Employment status
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
Noninstitutional pop ulation ........................................
163,541
166,460
169,349
171,775
173,939
175,891
178,080
179,912
182,293
Labor force:
Total (num ber)........................................................
Percent of pop ulation...........................................
103,882
63.5
106,559
64.0
108,544
64.1
110,315
64.2
111,872
64.3
113,226
64.4
115,241
64.7
117,167
65.1
119,540
65.6
97,679
59.7
1,631
100,421
60.3
1,597
100,907
59.6
1,604
102,042
59.4
1,645
101,194
58.2
1,668
102,510
58.3
1,676
106,702
59.9
1,697
108,856
60.5
1,706
111,303
61.1
1,706
96,048
3,387
92,661
98,824
3,347
95,477
99,303
3,364
95,938
100,397
3,368
97,030
99,526
3,401
96,125
100,834
3,383
97,450
105,005
3,321
101,685
107,150
3,179
103,971
109,597
3,163
106,434
Unemployed:
Total (num ber)................................................
Percent of labor fo r c e ...................................
6,202
6.0
6,137
5.8
7,637
7.0
8,273
7.5
10,678
9.5
10,717
9.5
8,539
7.4
8,312
7.1
8,237
6.9
Not in labor force (number) ...................................
59,659
59,900
60,806
61,460
62,067
62,665
62,839
62,744
62,752
Employed:
Total (num ber).................................................
Percent of population .....................................
Resident Armed Forces...............................
Civilian
Total .............................................................
A g riculture................................................
Nonagricultural industries.......................
20. Annual data: Employment levels by industry
(Numbers in thousands)
Industry
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
Total em ploym ent...........................................................................
Private s e c to r.............................
G oods-producing.......................................................................
M in in g ........................................
Construction .........................................................................
M anufacturing..........................................
86,697
71,026
25,585
851
4,229
20,505
89,823
73,876
26,461
958
4,463
21,040
90,406
74,166
25,658
1,027
4,346
20,285
91,156
75,126
25,497
1,139
4,188
20,170
89,566
73,729
23,813
1,128
3,905
18,781
90,200
74,330
23,334
952
3,948
18,434
94,496
78,472
24,727
966
4,383
19,378
97,519
81,125
24,859
927
4,673
19,260
99,610
82,900
24,681
783
4,904
18,994
Service-producing.........................................
Transportation and public u tilitie s ......................................
Wholesale trade ...................................
Retail trade ..........................................
Finance, insurance, and real e s ta te ................................
S e rvices............................................
61,113
4,923
4,969
14,573
4,724
16,252
63,363
5,136
5,204
14,989
4,975
17,112
64,748
5,146
5,275
15,035
5,160
17,890
65,659
5,165
5,358
15,189
5,298
18,619
65,753
5,082
5,278
15,179
5,341
19,036
66,866
4,954
5,268
15,613
5,468
19,694
69,769
5,159
5,555
16,545
5,689
20,797
72,660
5,238
5,717
17,356
5,955
22,000
74,930
5,244
5,735
17,845
6,297
23,099
15,672
2,753
3,474
9,446
15,947
2,773
3,541
9,633
16,241
2,866
3,610
9,765
16,031
2,772
3,640
9,619
15,837
2,739
3,640
9,458
15,869
2,774
3,662
9,434
16,024
2,807
3,734
9,482
16,394
2,875
3,832
9,687
16,711
2,899
3,888
9,923
G overnm ent............................................................
F ederal............................................
State ..........................................................
Local ........................................................
NOTE:
0
Digitized for10
FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
See “ Notes on the data” for a description of the most
recent benchmark revision.
21. Annual data: Average hours and earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on nonagricultural
payrolls, by industry
Industry
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
35.8
5.69
203.70
35.7
6.16
219.91
35.3
6.66
235.10
35.2
7.25
255.20
34.8
7.68
267.26
35.0
8.02
280.70
35.2
8.32
292.86
34.9
8.57
299.09
34.8
8.76
304.85
43.4
7.67
332.88
43.0
8.49
365.07
43.3
9.17
397.06
43.7
10.04
438.75
42.7
10.77
459.88
42.5
11.28
479.40
43.3
11.63
503.58
43.4
11.98
519.93
42.2
12.44
524.97
36.8
8.66
318.69
37.0
9.27
342.99
37.0
9.94
367.78
36.9
10.82
399.26
36.7
11.63
426.82
37.1
11.94
442.97
37.8
12.13
458.51
37.7
12.32
464.46
37.4
12.47
466.38
40.4
6.17
249.27
40.2
6.70
269.34
39.7
7.27
288.62
39.8
7.99
318.00
38.9
8.49
330.26
40.1
8.83
354.08
40.7
9.19
374.03
40.5
9.54
386.37
40.7
9.73
396.01
40.0
7.57
302.80
39.9
8.16
325.58
39.6
8.87
351.25
39.4
9.70
382.18
39.0
10.32
402.48
39.0
10.79
420.81
39.4
11.12
438.13
39.5
11.40
450.30
39.2
11.70
458.64
38.8
5.88
228.14
38.8
6.39
247.93
38.5
6.96
267.96
38.5
7.56
291.06
38.3
8.09
309.85
38.5
8.55
329.18
38.5
8.89
342.27
38.4
9.16
351.74
38.4
9.35
359.04
31.0
4.20
130.20
30.6
4.53
138.62
30.2
4.88
147.38
30.1
5.25
158.03
29.9
5.48
163.85
29.8
5.74
171.05
29.8
5.85
174.33
29.4
5.94
174.64
29.2
6.03
176.08
36.4
4.89
178.00
36.2
5.27
190.77
36.2
5.79
209.60
36.3
6.31
229.05
36.2
6.78
245.44
36.2
7.29
263.90
36.5
7.63
278.50
36.4
7.94
289.02
36.4
8.35
303.94
32.8
4.99
163.67
32.7
5.36
175.27
32.6
5.85
190.71
32.6
6.41
208.97
32.6
6.92
225.59
32.7
7.31
239.04
32.6
7.59
247.43
32.5
7.90
256.75
32.5
8.16
265.20
Private sector
Average weekly h o u rs .................................................................
Average hourly earnings (in d ollars).........................................
Average weekly earnings (in dollars) .......................................
Mining
Average weekly hours ...........................................................
Average hourly earnings (in dollars) ...................................
Average weekly earnings (in d o lla rs )..................................
Construction
Average weekly hours ...........................................................
Average hourly earnings (in d o lla rs )...................................
Average weekly earnings (in d o lla rs )..................................
Manufacturing
Average weekly hours ...........................................................
Average hourly earnings (in d o lla rs )...................................
Average weekly earnings (in d o lla rs )..................................
Transportation and public utilities
Average weekly hours ..........................................................
Average hourly earnings (in dollars) ...................................
Average weekly earnings (in d o lla rs )..................................
Wholesale trade
Average weekly hours ...........................................................
Average hourly earnings (in dollars) ...................................
Average weekly earnings (in d o lla rs )..................................
Retail trade
Average weekly hours ...........................................................
Average hourly earnings (in dollars) ...................................
Average weekly earnings (in d o lla rs )..................................
Finance, insurance, and real estate
Average weekly hours ...........................................................
Average hourly earnings (in dollars) ...................................
Average weekly earnings (in d o lla rs )..................................
Services
Average weekly hours ...........................................................
Average hourly earnings (in dollars) ...................................
Average weekly earnings (in d o lla rs )..................................
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
22.
September 1987 •
Current Labor Statistics: Compensation and Industrial Relations Data
Employment Cost Index, compensation,1 by occupation and industry group
(June 1981=100)
Percent change
1987
1986
1985
Series
June
Sept.
Dec.
Mar.
June
Sept.
Dec.
Mar.
June
3
months
ended
12
months
ended
June 1987
126.4
128.4
129.2
130.6
131.5
133.0
133.8
135.0
135.9
0.7
3.3
128.3
123.1
128.0
130.7
124.4
130.9
131.6
124.9
131.8
133.1
126.2
133.1
134.2
126.8
133.7
136.0
127.8
135.4
136.9
128.4
136.6
138.5
129.1
138.0
139.3
130.1
138.5
.6
.8
.4
3.8
2.6
3.6
123.9
124.6
127.9
132.6
130.3
127.2
124.9
125.5
130.7
136.4
134.2
129.7
125.5
126.0
131.5
137.1
134.8
130.6
126.9
127.7
132.9
138.8
136.8
131.9
128.1
128.7
133.7
139.4
138.0
132.8
128.8
129.3
135.6
142.4
140.6
134.6
129.5
130.1
136.5
143.6
141.6
135.4
130.2
130.7
138.1
145.2
144.1
136.9
131.1
131.5
138.9
145.8
144.7
137.8
.7
.6
.6
.4
.6
.8
.4
.7
2.3
2.2
3.9
4.6
4.7
4.5
4.9
3.8
Private in d u stry w o rk e r s .........................................................
Workers, by occupational group:
White-collar w o rkers...............................................................
Professional specialty and technical o ccup ations..........
Executive, administrative, and managerial occupations
Sales occupations.................................................................
Administrative support occupations, including
c le ric a l...................................................................................
Blue-collar w o rk e rs .................................................................
Precision production, craft, and repair occu p a tio n .........
Machine operators, assemblers, and in s p e c to rs............
Transportation and material moving occupations...........
Handlers, equipment cleaners, helpers, and laborers ....
Service occup ations...............................................................
Workers, by industry division:
Goods-producing......................................................................
Construction ............................................................................
M anufacturing..........................................................................
Durables .................................................................................
N ondurables...........................................................................
Service-producing ....................................................................
Transportation and public utilities........................................
Transportation........................................................................
Public u tilitie s .........................................................................
Wholesale and retail tra d e ...................................................
Wholesale trade ....................................................................
Retail trade ............................................................................
Finance, insurance, and real e s ta te ....................................
S e rv ic e .....................................................................................
Health se rvice s......................................................................
H o s p ita ls ...............................................................................
125.2
126.8
127.5
128.9
129.9
130.8
131.6
132.9
133.8
.7
3.0
127.1
-
128.8
-
129.8
-
131.3
-
132.5
-
133.5
-
134.3
-
136.1
-
137.0
-
.7
.6
.7
.5
3.4
3.5
3.9
2.1
122.8
126.5
124.0
128.8
124.4
129.5
125.7
130.9
126.3
131.1
127.2
132.3
127.8
133.5
128.4
134.7
129.5
135.2
1.0
.9
.8
1.0
1.1
.5
.4
3.5
2.5
2.4
2.7
3.0
2.0
3.1
123.8
124.6
128.6
.7
1.3
.6
.7
.5
.7
1.1
1.4
.9
1.5
1.5
1.4
-1.0
.6
.7
.7
2.3
3.1
2.2
2.0
2.6
3.6
2.8
2.8
2.9
3.4
4.3
3.0
3.0
4.3
5.0
4.6
Nonmanufacturing ..................................................................
.7
3.4
Civilian w o rke rs 2 ..........................................................................
Workers, by occupational group:
White-collar workers .................................................................
Blue-collar w o rkers....................................................................
Service occupations..................................................................
Workers, by industry division:
G oods-producing.........................................................................
Manufacturing ............................................................................
Service-producing.......................................................................
Services.....................................................................................
Health services......................................................................
H o spitals.................................................................................
Public administration 3 .............................................................
Nonmanufacturing.......................................................................
State and local gove rnm ent w o rk e rs ..................................
Workers, by occupational group:
White-collar w o rkers...............................................................
Blue-collar w o rk e rs .................................................................
Workers, by industry division:
S e rvice s...................................................................................
Hospitals and other services4 ...........................................
Health se rvic e s ...................................................................
S c h o o ls .................................................................................
Elementary and secon dary.............................................
Public administration3 .............................................................
124.6
126.4
-
-
-
-
-
-
125.5
128.7
-
126.0
129.4
-
127.7
130.8
-
129.3
132.7
-
129.2
130.1
133.5
-
129.9
130.7
135.3
-
130.8
131.5
136.3
-
-
128.7
131.6
-
-
-
-
-
102
126.7
-
127.8
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
125.6
127.6
128.4
129.7
130.6
131.7
132.4
134.1
135.1
132.0
136.5
137.5
138.9
139.7
143.6
144.7
145.9
146.3
.3
4.7
132.9
128.5
137.6
131.9
138.6
132.7
140.0
134.7
140.5
136.3
145.0
138.5
146.0
139.5
147.2
140.8
147.5
141.3
.2
.4
5.0
3.7
133.2
131.5
133.7
134.6
130.3
137.9
134.1
139.1
140.9
134.2
139.1
135.2
140.3
142.0
134.8
140.4
136.8
-
140.8
137.9
141.7
143.2
138.0
145.5
139.4
147.6
149.4
140.6
146.6
141.1
148.4
150.3
141.6
147.3
142.5
148.9
150.5
144.1
147.6
143.3
149.1
150.7
144.7
.2
.6
.6
.1
.1
.4
4.8
3.9
3.8
5.2
5.2
4.9
1 Cost (cents per hour worked) measured in the Employment Cost Index
consists of wages, salaries, and employer cost of employee benefits.
2 Consist of private industry workers (excluding farm and household workers)
and State and local government (excluding Federal Government) workers.
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
125.3
141.5
143.0
136.8
3 Consist of legislative, judicial, administrative, and regulatory
4 Includes, for example, library, social, and health services.
- Data not available.
activities.
23.
Employment Cost Index, wages and salaries, by occupation and industry group
(June 1981=100)
Percent change
1987
1986
1985
Series
June
Sept.
Dec.
Mar.
June
Sept.
Dec.
Mar.
June
3
months
ended
12
months
ended
June 1987
Civilian workers 1...................................................................
Workers, by occupational group:
White-collar workers ...........................................................
Blue-collar workers..............................................................
Service occupations............................................................
124.2
126.3
127.0
128.3
129.3
130.7
131.5
132.8
133.5
0.5
3.2
126.4
120.5
125.3
128.8
122.0
128.0
129.8
122.3
128.6
131.2
123.4
129.8
132.4
124.1
130.0
134.1
125.0
131.7
135.0
125.6
132.8
136.6
126.2
134.2
137.3
127.1
134.7
.5
.7
.4
3.7
2.4
3.6
Workers, by industry division
Goods-producing..................................................................
Manufacturing .....................................................................
Service-producing.................................................................
Services............................................................................
Health services...............................................................
Hospitals..........................................................................
Public administration 2 .....................................................
Nonmanufacturing...............................................................
121.5
122.3
125.8
130.5
127.2
125.0
122.5
123.2
128.6
134.2
131.4
127.6
123.1
123.8
129.4
134.8
132.0
128.4
124.4
125.3
130.7
136.4
133.8
129.6
125.6
126.5
131.5
137.0
134.6
130.4
126.3
127.2
133.4
139.9
137.5
132.2
127.0
127.9
134.2
141.1
138.1
133.0
127.8
128.7
135.8
142.7
140.5
134.5
128.5
129.5
136.5
143.4
141.0
135.2
.5
.6
.5
.5
.6
.7
.4
.5
2.3
2.4
3.8
4.7
5.0
4.7
4.8
3.7
123.3
124.9
125.6
126.8
127.9
128.8
129.5
130.8
131.7
.7
3.0
125.5
128.7
127.3
131.2
128.3
131.5
129.6
132.7
131.1
134.0
132.0
135.4
132.7
136.4
134.6
138.4
135.4
139.1
.6
.5
3.3
3.8
126.5
117.4
127.7
119.3
128.4
122.5
130.5
122.4
132.1
124.3
132.4
125.2
133.5
124.9
135.6
126.7
136.4
127.1
.6
.3
3.3
2.3
125.6
127.1
127.9
129.6
130.8
131.7
132.7
134.3
135.5
.9
3.6
120.3
121.7
122.0
123.1
123.7
124.5
125.1
125.6
126.6
.8
2.3
126.7
124.1
119.8
127.4
124.9
120.1
127.9
125.5
120.5
128.8
126.7
121.5
.7
1.0
2.5
2.5
.8
2.2
121.9
131.4
122.6
131.9
.6
1.9
3.0
127.5
121.7
128.7
127.7
130.5
133.4
128.1
127.9
134.8
125.2
133.5
141.8
128.3
122.7
129.5
128.7
131.0
134.3
129.3
129.9
137.2
127.1
131.5
142.8
Private industry workers.................................................
Workers, by occupational group:
White-collar workers......................................................
Professional specialty and technical occupations......
Executive, administrative, and managerial
occupations................................................................
Sales occupations.......................................................
Administrative support occupations, including
clerical........................................................................
Blue-collar workers..........................................................
Precision production, craft, and repair
occupations.................................................................
Machine operators, assemblers, and inspectors.......
Transportation and material moving occupations......
Handlers, equipment cleaners, helpers, and
laborers......................................................................
Service occupations......................................................
Workers, by industry division:
Goods-producing.............................................................
Construction ..................................................................
Manufacturing.................................................................
Durables......................................................................
Nondurables.................................................................
Service-producing............................................................
Transportation and public utilities...............................
Transportation............................................................
Public utilities..............................................................
Wholesale and retail trade..........................................
Wholesale trade .......................................................
Retail trade...............................................................
Finance, insurance, and real estate...........................
Services.......................................................................
Health services ..........................................................
Hospitals...................................................................
122.0
120.1
115.7
123.7
121.1
117.7
123.8
121.6
117.8
125.3
122.6
118.0
125.7
123.6
118.9
118.5
124.4
118.6
126.3
119.8
126.6
120.0
128.0
120.3
128.0
120.9
128.9
121.4
130.1
121.4
116.6
122.3
122.0
122.6
124.8
122.8
121.1
126.8
118.9
121.7
131.0
122.3
117.3
123.2
122.7
124.0
127.0
124.8
122.7
127.7
120.8
124.1
133.9
122.9
117.9
123.8
123.4
124.6
127.8
125.2
123.7
128.3
121.9
126.5
134.1
124.2
118.3
125.3
124.8
126.1
129.0
126.3
124.5
129.7
122.5
126.6
136.2
125.4
119.8
126.5
125.8
127.9
129.9
126.6
125.8
131.2
123.7
128.0
136.9
126.1
120.5
127.2
126.4
128.5
130.9
127.3
126.5
131.8
124.4
129.0
138.2
126.8
120.8
127.9
127.2
129.3
131.6
127.5
126.9
133.1
124.5
130.0
139.5
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
.4
.6
.8
.4
.7
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.4
3.4
.9
1.3
.7
1.6
1.8
1.5
-1.5
.7
.7
.7
1.8
2.6
3.3
4.6
2.7
2.7
4.3
5.1
4.8
.6
.8
2.1
Nonmanufacturing..........................................................
123.9
125.9
126.6
127.7
128.7
129.7
130.4
131.9
132.8
.7
3.2
S ta te and local g o v e rn m e n t w o r k e r s ...................................
128.7
133.2
134.2
135.5
136.0
140.4
141.4
142.5
142.8
.2
5.0
.1
.4
5.2
3.8
.2
.6
.6
.1
.1
5.2
4.6
4.1
5.4
5.2
4.8
Workers, by occupational group
White-collar workers......................................................
Blue-collar workers........................................................
Workers, by industry division
Services .........................................................................
Hospitals and other services 3 ....................................
Health services ..........................................................
Schools..........................................................................
Elementary and secondary........................................
Public administration 2 .....................................................
129.6
124.5
134.3
127.9
135.3
128.4
136.6
130.4
137.0
131.9
141.8
134.5
142.8
135.1
143.9
136.3
144.1
136.9
129.7
128.0
134.5
130.2
135.6
130.9
136.8
132.4
137.1
133.3
142.1
135.8
143.3
137.3
143.9
138.6
144.2
139.4
-
130.2
131.1
127.2
-
135.8
137.5
131.4
1 Consists of private industry workers (excluding farm and household workers)
and State and local government (excluding Federal Government) workers.
2 Consists of legislative, judicial, administrative, and regulatory activities.
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
137.0
138.5
132.0
138.0
139.4
133.8
138.2
139.4
134.6
144.1
145.7
137.5
145.1
146.4
138.1
145.5
146.5
140.5
145.6
146.6
141.0
.4
3 Includes, for example, library, social and health services,
- Data not available.
103
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
24.
September 1987 •
Current Labor Statistics: Compensation and Industrial Relations Data
Employment Cost Index, private nonfarm workers, by bargaining status, region, and area size
(June 1981=100)
Series
June
Sept.
Mar.
Dec.
June
Percent change
1987
1986
1985
Sept.
Mar.
Dec.
June
12
months
ended
3
months
ended
June 987
C O M P E N S A TIO N
W o rk e rs , b y barga ining s ta tu s 1
Union .....................................................................................
Goods-producing................................................................
Service-producing................................................................
Manufacturing ........... ..........................................................
Nonmanufacturing...............................................................
125.5
123.9
128.0
124.2
126.6
126.5
124.6
129.5
125.0
127.8
127.1
125.2
130.2
125.5
128.6
128.4
126.4
131.6
127.0
129.7
128.7
126.7
131.9
126.9
130.4
129.4
127.3
132.8
127.5
131.2
129.8
127.5
133.4
127.9
131.5
130.5
128.0
134.4
128.0
132.6
131.2
128.7
135.2
128.7
133.5
0.5
.5
.6
.5
.7
1.9
1.6
2.5
1.4
2.4
Nonunion...............................................................................
Goods-producing.................................................................
Service-producing................................................................
Manufacturing .....................................................................
Nonmanufacturing............................. .................................
125.0
123.5
125.8
124.8
125.1
126.8
124.4
128.3
125.7
127.3
127.5
125.1
129.0
126.3
128.1
129.0
126.7
130.4
128.1
129.5
130.2
128.2
131.4
129.7
130.4
131.2
129.1
132.5
130.4
131.6
132.1
130.0
133.4
131.4
132.5
133.6
130.8
135.3
132.2
134.3
134.6
131.8
136.4
133.2
135.3
.7
.8
.8
.8
.7
3.4
2.8
3.8
2.7
3.8
126.4
125.2
122.7
127.9
128.8
126.5
124.2
129.1
129.9
127.2
124.6
129.8
131.6
128.7
125.9
130.8
133.3
129.6
126.2
131.6
134.2
130.7
127.3
132.1
135.2
131.4
128.1
132.8
137.4
132.1
129.1
134.1
138.6
133.2
130.2
134.2
.9
.8
.9
.1
4.0
2.8
3.2
2.0
125.7
122.5
127.3
123.9
128.1
123.9
129.5
125.5
130.5
126.4
131.4
127.2
132.2
127.9
133.5
129.0
134.4
130.2
.7
.9
3.0
3.0
Union .....................................................................................
Goods-producing................................................................
Service-producing................................................................
Manufacturing .....................................................................
Nonmanufacturing...............................................................
123.0
121.3
125.7
121.7
124.1
124.1
122.2
127.1
122.8
125.3
124.7
122.7
127.8
123.3
125.9
125.6
123.4
129.0
124.2
126.9
126.1
124.1
129.3
124.6
127.4
126.9
124.5
130.5
125.0
128.5
127.2
124.8
130.9
125.5
128.7
127.7
125.0
131.7
125.6
129.5
128.3
125.8
132.2
126.2
130.1
.5
.6
.4
.5
.5
1.7
1.4
2.2
1.3
2.1
Nonunion...............................................................................
Goods-producing .................................................................
Service-producing................................................................
Manufacturing .....................................................................
Nonmanufacturing...............................................................
123.4
121.4
124.4
122.8
123.6
125.2
122.3
126.9
123.7
125.9
125.9
123.0
127.7
124.4
126.6
127.3
124.5
128.9
126.1
127.8
128.5
126.1
129.9
127.7
128.9
129.4
127.0
130.8
128.5
129.8
130.3
127.8
131.7
129.5
130.6
131.8
128.8
133.6
130.6
132.4
132.8
129.6
134.6
131.5
133.4
.8
.6
.7
.7
.8
3.3
2.8
3.6
3.0
3.5
124.6
123.4
121.1
125.1
126.8
124.8
122.5
126.6
128.1
125.4
122.9
127.1
129.2
126.8
124.2
128.1
131.3
127.8
124.4
128.9
132.3
128.8
125.3
129.3
133.1
129.4
126.2
130.1
135.4
130.1
127.4
131.2
136.6
131.1
128.5
131.1
.9
.8
.9
-.1
4.0
2.6
3.3
1.7
123.8
120.6
125.5
121.9
126.3
122.0
127.4
123.6
128.5
124.5
129.4
125.0
130.2
125.6
131.6
126.6
132.4
127.8
.6
.9
3.0
2.7
W o rk e rs , by reg io n 1
Northeast................................................................................
Midwest (formerly North Central)..........................................
West......................................... ,............................................
W o rk e rs , by a rea size 1
Metropolitan areas ................................................................
Other areas............................................................................
W A G E S A N D S A LA R IE S
W o rkers, by bargaining statu s 1
W o rk e rs , by region 1
Northeast...............................................................................
South .....................................................................................
Midwest (formerly North Central)..........................................
West......................................................................................
W o rk e rs , b y area s iz e 1
Metropolitan areas................................................................
Other areas...........................................................................
1 The indexes are calculated differently from those for the occupation and
industry groups. For a detailed description of the index calculation, see the
104FRASER
Digitized for
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Monthly Labor Review Technical
Employment Cost Index,” May 1982.
Note,
Estimation procedures for the
25. Specified compensation and wage adjustments from contract settlements, and effective wage adjustments, private
industry collective bargaining situations covering 1,000 workers or more (in percent)
Quarterly average
Annual average
Measure
1985
1985
1986
1987
1986
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
lp
IF
S p ecified adjustm ents:
Total compensation 1 adjustments,2 settlements
covering 5,000 workers or more:
First year of contract...........................................
Annual rate over life of contract.........................
2.6
2.7
1.1
1.6
2.0
3.0
2.0
1.4
0.6
1.2
0.7
1.6
0.7
1.2
2.7
2.4
1.7
2.4
4.2
3.9
Wage adjustments, settlements covering 1,000
workers or more:
First year of contract ...........................................
Annual rate over life of contract.........................
2.3
2.7
1.2
1.8
2.0
3.1
2.1
1.9
.8
1.5
1.3
2.0
.8
1.5
2.0
2.1
1.2
1.8
2.6
2.9
3.3
.7
2.3
.5
1.2
.2
.5
.1
.6
(4)
.7
.2
.5
.1
.5
.2
.4
(4)
1.0
.1
1.8
.7
1.7
.2
.5
.4
.2
.1
.4
.2
.6
(4)
.5
(4)
.2
.1
.3
.1
.7
.2
E ffe c tiv e adjustm ents:
Total effective wage adjustment3 .........................
From settlements reached in period ...................
Deferred from settlements reached in earlier
periods.................................................................
From cost-of-living-adjustments clauses.............
1 Compensation includes wages, salaries, and employers’ cost of employee
benefits when contract is negotiated.
2 Adjustments are the net result of increases, decreases, and no changes in
compensation or wages.
3 Because of rounding, total may not equal sum of parts.
4 Between -0.05 and 0.05 percent.
p = preliminary.
26. Average specified compensation and wage adjustments, major collective bargaining settlements in private
industry situations covering 1,000 workers or more during 4-quarter periods (in percent)
Average for four quarters ending-Measure
1985
III
1986
IV
I
II
1987
III
IV
F
IIP
Specified total compensation adjustments, settlements covering 5,000
workers or more, all industries:
First year of contract............................................................................
Annual rate over life of contract..........................................................
3.1
2.7
2.6
2.7
2.3
2.5
1.4
2.0
0.9
1.4
1.1
1.6
1.2
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.4
1.9
2.7
2.5
1.8
3.0
2.3
1.6
2.7
2.7
2.5
2.8
2.0
1.6
2.2
2.5
2.5
2.5
1.6
1.8
1.5
2.2
2.5
2.1
1.2
2.2
.8
1.7
2.0
1.6
1.2
1.9
.9
1.8
1.7
1.8
1.2
2.0
.9
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.5
1.8
1.4
2.0
1.7
2.2
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.4
2.4
.8
.8
.9
1.8
2.1
1.6
.8
.8
.9
1.8
2.1
1.5
.1
.7
-.4
1.4
2.0
.9
-1.0
1.1
-2.0
.3
1.1
-.1
-1.2
1.3
-2.8
.2
.9
-.2
-1.6
1.3
-3.5
.8
-.6
-.8
1.4
-2.9
.2
.8
-.3
3.2
4.0
3.0
3.3
3.9
3.2
3.3
3.6
3.3
3.3
3.6
3.3
2.8
3.5
2.7
3.0
3.6
2.8
2.6
3.4
2.4
2.8
3.3
2.6
2.1
2.7
1.9
2.3
2.5
2.2
2.0
2.1
2.0
2.3
2.1
2.4
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.4
2.2
2.5
2.3
2.1
2.4
2.6
2.2
2.8
1.6
2.3
1.1
2.4
2.5
1.2
2.6
2.3
1.4
2.4
2.6
1.6
2.6
2.2
1.4
2.3
2.5
1.6
2.5
2.4
1.6
2.4
2.5
1.4
2.6
Specified wage adjustments, settlements covering 1,000 workers or
more:
All industries
First year of contract .........................................................................
Contracts with COLA clauses.........................................................
Contracts without COLA clauses ........... ........................................
Annual rate over life of contract.......................................................
Contracts with COLA clauses...................... ..................................
Contracts without COLA clauses ...................................................
Manufacturing
First year of contract .........................................................................
Contracts with COLA clauses.........................................................
Contracts without COLA clauses ...................................................
Annual rate over life of contract.......................................................
Contracts with COLA clauses.........................................................
Contracts without COLA clauses ...................................................
Nonmanufacturing
First year of contract .........................................................................
Contracts with COLA clauses.........................................................
Contracts without COLA clauses ...................................................
Annual rate over life of contract.......................................................
Contracts with COLA clauses.........................................................
Contracts without COLA clauses ...................................................
Construction
First year of contract .........................................................................
Contracts with COLA clauses.........................................................
Contracts without COLA clauses ...................................................
Annual rate over life of contract.......................................................
Contracts with COLA clauses.........................................................
Contracts without COLA clauses ...................................................
1 Data do not meet publication standards.
2 Between -0.05 and 0.05 percent.
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
1.0
(1)
(1)
1.5
(’)
(1)
1.7
(1)
(’)
(’)
(')
2.1
(')
(1)
p
2.2
(1)
(1)
= preliminary.
(2)l
2.6
(1)
(1)
2.8
(1)
(1)
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
September 1987 •
Current Labor Statistics: Compensation and Industrial Relations Data
27. Average effective wage adjustments, private industry collective bargaining situations covering 1,000
workers or more during 4-quarter periods (in percent)
Average for four quarters ending-1987
1986
1985
Effective wage adjustment
IV
I
II
III
IV
lp
llp
3.3
.7
1.8
.7
3.1
.6
1.7
.8
2.9
.5
1.8
.7
2.3
.5
1.6
.2
2.3
.5
1.7
.2
2.0
.4
1.5
.1
2.2
.3
1.6
.3
4.1
3.4
3.7
2.2
4.0
2.9
3.5
2.5
3.8
2.5
3.4
2.0
3.1
1.7
3.8
1.0
2.8
1.6
3.9
1.0
2.4
1.2
3.7
.6
2.8
1.1
3.5
1.8
For all w o rk e rs :1
Total......................................................................................................
From settlements reached in period .................................................
Deferred from settlements reached in earlier period .......................
From cost-of-living-adjustments clauses...........................................
F o r w o rk e rs receiving changes:
Total......................................................................................................
From settlements reached in period .................................................
Deferred from settlements reached in earlier period .......................
From cost-of-living-adjustments clauses...........................................
1 Because of rounding, total may not equal sum of parts.
p = preliminary.
28. Specified compensation and wage adjustments from contract settlements, and effective wage adjustments, State and
local government collective bargaining situations covering 1,000 workers or more (in percent)
Annual average
Measure
1985
1986
First 6 months
1987
4.2
5.1
6.0
5.7
4.9
4.6
5.4
5.7
52
5.4
5.7
4.1
1.6
(4)
5.5
2.4
3.0
(4)
1.6
.4
1.2
(4)
Specified adjustments:
Total compensation 1 adjustments, 2 settlements covering 5,000 workers or more:
First year of contract .................................................
Annual rate over life of contract.........................................
Wage adjustments, settlements covering 1,000 workers or more:
First year of contract .............................................................
Annual rate over life of contract...........................................
Effective adjustments:
Total effective wage adjustment 3 ..................................................
From settlements reached in period...............................................
Deferred from settlements reached in earlier periods ...........................
From cost-of-living-adjustment clauses............................................
1 Compensation includes wages, salaries, and employers’ cost of employee
benefits when contract is negotiated.
2 Adjustments are the net result of increases, decreases, and no changes in
compensation or wages.
29.
3 Because of rounding, total may not equal sum of parts.
4 Less than 0.05 percent.
p = preliminary
Work stoppages involving 1,000 workers or more
Annual totals
1986
1987p
Measure
1985
Number of stoppages:
Beginning in period....................
In effect during period................
Workers involved:
Beginning in period (in
thousands).................................
In effect during period (in
thousands).................................
Days idle:
Number (in thousands)...............
Percent of estimated working
time1 ..........................................
1986
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
June
May
54
61
69
72
11
15
13
22
10
22
8
17
5
17
2
9
1
6
2
7
5
7
3
5
2
5
2
6
8
12
323.9
533.0
198.0
46.7
113.3
39.4
44.3
8.7
3.0
7.3
37.6
12.2
2.7
4.5
14.9
584.1
899.5
206.8
83.1
153.0
87.4
109.9
67.8
49.4
46.9
41.6
16.2
8.9
68.4
22.1
7,079.0 11,861.0
3,677.0
859.1
1,273.6
1,225.6
1,423.7
940.4
1,873.6
828.6
194.1
104.4
151.3
158.7
248.5
.18
.04
.08
.06
.06
.05
.04
.04
.01
.01
.01
.01
.01
.03
.05
1 Agricultural and government employees are included in the total employed and total
working time: private household, forestry, and fishery employees are excluded. An expla
nation of the measurement of idleness as a percentage of the total time worked is found
in '“Total economy’ measure of strike idleness,” Monthly Labor Review, October 1968,
106
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Oct.
pp. 54-56.
p = preliminary
30. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, by expenditure category and commodity or
service group; and CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, all items
(1967 = 100, unless otherwise indicated)
Series
Annual
average
1987
1986
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
328.4
381.9
328.0
381.4
328.6
382.1
330.2
384.1
330.5
384.4
330.8
384.7
331.1
385.1
333.1
387.4
334.4
388.9
335.9
390.7
337.7
392.7
338.7
393.9
340.1
395.6
340.8
396.3
302.0
309.8
296.8
317.0
263.4
258.0
325.7
361.1
398.8
294.4
451.7
294.2
346.6
229.5
311.8
319.7
305.3
325.8
275.1
258.4
328.7
373.6
411.1
287.8
478.2
301.9
360.1
239.7
312.2
320.1
305.5
326.3
274.9
258.4
330.3
373.7
412.4
287.3
478.3
301.8
360.8
240.4
314.6
322.7
308.9
328.2
283.0
258.3
332.1
374.0
413.1
287.8
476.9
303.2
361.8
240.1
315.1
323.2
309.0
328.5
284.7
258.5
329.1
373.7
413.7
285.6
475.7
303.8
363.3
240.4
315.6
323.7
309.5
328.4
284.9
260.0
328.6
374.4
413.4
284.6
477.5
304.7
364.0
240.6
316.4
324.6
309.9
328.5
286.3
261.2
327.8
373.9
412.4
285.4
476.9
303.9
365.8
240.5
317.0
325.2
310.2
329.5
287.3
262.2
328.5
372.2
411.8
286.0
470.2
305.2
367.1
240.8
320.5
328.9
315.2
331.5
289.2
263.3
344.3
378.7
415.8
293.2
482.6
308.4
368.6
242.5
321.6
330.1
316.6
332.7
286.4
264.7
355.2
380.0
415.8
290.3
481.9
312.1
369.6
243.2
321.6
330.0
315.8
333.2
286.5
263.7
352.5
378.6
417.2
294.6
475.4
311.3
370.9
243.6
322.5
331.0
316.9
335.6
285.9
263.2
360.6
377.6
417.4
291.8
469.8
313.2
371.5
244.3
324.0
332.5
318.8
336.5
288.5
264.3
365.7
377.5
417.7
293.3
467.9
313.5
372.3
245.0
325.4
334.1
320.4
337.0
290.7
263.7
372.8
376.4
419.3
291.4
462.6
314.5
373.8
245.9
325.1
333.6
319.1
338.4
293.1
263.2
359.3
375.9
418.8
292.9
458.5
315.4
374.9
246.7
Housing ..........................................................................................
Shelter .........................................................................................
Renters’ costs (12/82—100)..................................................
Rent, residential.....................................................................
Other renters’ costs ...............................................................
Homeowners’ costs (12/82—100)...........................................
Owners’ equivalent rent (12/82—1 00)..................................
Household insurance (12/82—100)......................................
Maintenance and repairs..........................................................
Maintenance and repair services ..........................................
Maintenance and repair commodities...................................
Fuel and other utilities................................................................
Fuels .........................................................................................
Fuel oil, coal, and bottled g a s ...............................................
Gas (piped) and electricity ....................................................
Other utilities and public services............................................
Household furnishings and operations.......................................
Housefurnishings......................................................................
Housekeeping supplies.............................................................
Housekeeping services.............................................................
349.9
382.0
115.4
264.6
398.4
113.1
113.2
112.4
368.9
421.1
269.6
393.6
488.1
619.5
452.7
240.7
247.2
200.1
313.6
338.9
360.2
402.9
121.9
280.0
416.2
119.4
119.4
119.2
373.8
430.9
269.7
384.7
463.1
501.5
446.7
253.1
250.4
201.1
319.5
346.6
361.5
403.5
122.5
281.2
420.1
119.4
119.4
119.9
369.2
430.1
262.7
389.4
469.2
459.4
462.3
255.6
250.5
201.2
319.5
346.6
362.4
405.2
122.9
281.7
425.7
119.9
119.9
119.9
376.4
434.2
271.3
389.5
469.0
447.3
464.5
255.9
250.5
200.9
319.8
347.4
363.7
407.6
123.6
283.2
429.1
120.7
120.7
120.2
376.2
437.0
268.7
388.3
467.2
453.5
461.1
255.6
251.5
202.2
320.1
347.8
363.0
409.5
124.0
284.6
427.3
121.3
121.3
120.6
379.0
437.5
273.0
379.1
450.3
451.9
441.4
257.1
251.6
202.2
319.8
348.5
361.7
410.2
124.3
285.6
425.5
121.5
121.5
121.1
377.1
433.7
272.9
371.1
437.8
452.0
426.7
255.4
251.2
201.4
320.4
348.5
362.1
410.4
124.2
286.0
418.2
121.6
121.6
121.6
380.0
433.1
278.3
371.0
438.1
460.6
425.3
254.9
252.4
202.5
322.9
349.3
363.9
412.3
125.3
287.1
428.3
122.0
122.0
121.8
382.1
437.7
277.7
373.7
443.7
487.9
428.8
254.9
253.1
203.0
324.6
349.8
365.1
414.0
125.8
288.0
430.8
122.5
122.5
122.0
381.9
436.1
278.8
374.8
445.1
503.2
428.9
255.6
253.5
203.2
325.3
350.6
366.4
415.9
126.4
288.3
438.7
123.0
123.0
122.2
383.4
439.4
278.5
374.9
444.6
500.6
428.7
256.2
254.3
203.8
327.7
351.0
367.7
418.0
127.1
288.8
446.1
123.6
123.6
122.4
382.4
437.1
278.7
374.2
442.0
500.5
425.9
257.0
255.2
204.7
328.2
352.2
368.9
419.2
127.3
289.4
446.1
124.0
124.1
123.0
381.9
435.3
279.6
377.5
448.7
497.7
433.3
257.2
254.9
203.7
330.1
353.1
371.3
420.2
127.9
289.6
453.1
124.2
124.2
123.6
385.0
440.5
280.2
387.6
470.8
498.6
456.8
256.4
254.9
203.6
330.5
353.0
372.5
422.1
129.3
291.2
465.9
124.4
124.4
124.5
392.4
452.8
281.9
388.1
468.9
497.9
454.8
258.6
255.1
203.9
330.1
353.8
Apparel and upkeep......................................................................
Apparel commodities..................................................................
Men’s and boys’ apparel..........................................................
Women’s and girls' apparel .....................................................
Infants’ and toddlers’ apparel..................................................
Footwear...................................................................................
Other apparel commodities......................................................
Apparel services..........................................................................
206.0
191.6
197.9
169.5
299.7
212.1
215.5
320.9
207.8
192.0
200.0
168.0
312.7
211.2
217.9
334.6
203.2
187.0
195.8
159.8
307.5
209.1
218.1
334.6
207.0
191.2
197.8
167.2
310.6
209.6
221.6
334.7
212.1
196.6
203.2
175.7
309.7
212.0
221.1
336.7
213.2
197.6
204.3
176.4
312.0
215.1
219.8
338.3
213.1
197.4
205.3
175.0
307.0
215.1
221.1
339.0
210.9
194.9
202.3
171.7
312.7
214.0
220.0
339.5
207.1
190.9
199.2
166.6
301.8
209.9
223.2
342.5
208.4
192.1
199.9
167.8
304.5
211.0
226.0
343.2
215.2
199.1
203.5
177.0
319.6
216.5
227.4
344.7
218.7
202.6
205.6
182.2
319.1
219.2
227.0
344.7
218.0
201.8
207.1
179.6
316.4
220.8
226.7
346.8
214.5
198.1
205.3
173.7
308.0
218.8
230.6
347.4
210.5
194.0
203.0
168.3
301.2
214.3
231.9
348.7
Transportation ...............................................................................
Private transportation..................................................................
New vehicles.............................................................................
New cars................................................................................
Used cars.................................................................................
Motor fuel .................................................................................
Gasoline.................................................................................
Maintenance and repair............................................................
Other private transportation.....................................................
Other private transportation commodities.............................
Other private transportation services....................................
Public transportation...................................................................
319.9
314.2
214.9
215.2
379.7
373.8
373.3
351.4
287.6
202.6
312.8
402.8
307.5
299.5
224.1
224.4
363.2
292.1
291.4
363.1
303.9
201.6
333.9
426.4
304.7
296.5
224.5
224.7
360.3
280.2
279.8
363.4
304.5
201.6
334.6
428.0
301.3
292.8
224.5
224.7
358.0
265.9
265.3
364.3
304.5
201.8
334.6
428.0
302.2
293.7
224.2
224.5
359.5
271.1
270.6
365.0
302.3
200.3
332.3
428.5
302.6
294.1
226.7
227.1
360.6
263.2
262.6
365.7
307.6
198.9
339.3
428.7
304.3
295.8
230.2
230.7
361.0
260.9
260.2
368.4
311.6
200.0
344.1
431.7
304.8
295.9
231.7
232.2
356.6
261.9
261.2
370.7
312.0
200.4
344.5
437.5
308.5
299.8
232.3
233.0
354.6
275.8
275.1
371.3
314.9
202.2
347.7
438.9
310.0
301.3
229.9
230.2
356.9
288.1
287.5
373.0
314.0
201.8
346.7
439.8
310.6
301.9
229.2
229.4
363.0
290.0
289.4
373.0
314.4
202.3
347.0
441.4
313.3
304.8
229.9
230.4
371.6
297.2
296.7
376.1
315.1
200.8
348.6
440.8
314.6
306.3
230.6
231.3
378.6
299.7
299.3
376.1
315.9
202.3
349.1
439.6
316.7
308.6
231.2
232.0
383.0
306.0
305.5
376.3
317.6
202.3
351.3
438.1
318.5
310.5
231.8
232.7
385.5
311.2
310.8
376.8
318.8
201.6
353.2
438.3
Medical care..................................................................................
Medical care commodities ..........................................................
Medical care services.................................................................
Professional services...............................................................
Hospital and related services..................................................
403.1
256.7
435.1
367.3
224.0
433.5
273.6
468.6
390.9
237.4
434.8
275.4
469.8
391.7
237.4
437.5
276.0
473.0
393.3
239.5
439.7
276.7
475.7
396.1
240.1
442.3
277.5
478.8
398.0
242.3
444.6
278.2
481.5
399.8
243.8
446.8
280.8
483.4
401.0
245.0
449.6
282.4
486.5
403.7
246.7
452.4
283.9
489.6
406.8
248.1
455.0
286.3
492.1
409.6
249.0
457.3
287.5
494.7
412.5
250.1
458.9
289.6
496.0
413.9
251.0
461.3
291.5
498.4
416.7
251.8
464.1
293.4
501.5
418.9
254.6
Entertainment ................................................................................
Entertainment commodities ........................................................
Entertainment services...............................................................
265.0
260.6
271.8
274.1
265.9
286.3
274.4
265.8
287.0
274.7
266.1
287.3
275.3
265.9
289.2
276.5
266.7
290.8
277.4
267.6
291.8
277.4
267.4
292.2
278.3
268.1
293.3
278.7
268.1
294.1
279.8
269.9
294.5
281.3
270.8
296.6
282.0
271.7
297.2
282.3
271.8
297.6
283.5
272.8
299.1
Other goods and services .............................................................
Tobacco products .......................................................................
Personal care..............................................................................
Toilet goods and personal care appliances.............................
Personal care services .............................................................
Personal and educational expenses...........................................
School books and supplies......................................................
Personal and educational services..........................................
326.6
328.5
281.9
278.5
286.0
397.1
350.8
407.7
346.4
351.0
291.3
287.9
295.4
428.8
380.3
440.1
344.9
354.3
291.1
287.1
295.8
421.2
375.9
431.9
346.4
356.2
292.3
289.1
296.2
422.9
376.9
433.7
353.3
356.8
292.0
288.2
296.5
445.2
389.4
457.8
354.6
357.2
293.1
289.9
297.1
447.6
392.3
460.2
354.9
357.3
293.4
289.6
297.9
448.2
392.5
460.8
355.2
357.6
293.6
289.6
298.2
448.8
392.6
461.6
358.1
364.9
295.7
291.3
300.8
450.6
400.7
462.8
359.7
368.3
296.4
292.1
301.3
452.0
403.4
464.2
360.3
369.6
296.4
292.0
301.5
452.8
403.9
465.0
361.1
370.4
297.3
292.9
302.3
453.8
404.4
466.0
362.0
370.9
299.0
294.2
304.6
454.4
404.9
466.6
362.9
372.7
299.2
294.2
304.9
455.5
405.1
467.9
365.1
379.9
300.2
295.8
305.3
456.5
405.2
469.0
1985
1986
All items............................................................................................
All items (1957-59 = 100).................................................................
322.2
374.7
Food and beverages .....................................................................
Food............................................................................................
Food at home ...........................................................................
Cereals and bakery products.................................................
Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs................................................
Dairy products........................................................................
Fruits and vegetables.............................................................
Other foods at home..............................................................
Sugar and sweets...............................................................
Fats and oils........................................................................
Nonalcoholic beverages......................................................
Other prepared foods..........................................................
Food away from home .............................................................
Alcoholic beverages....................................................................
C O N S U M E R PR IC E IN D E X FO R A L L U R BA N CO NS UM ER S:
See footnotes at end of table.
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
107
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
September 1987 •
Current Labor Statistics:
Price Data
30. Continued— Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, by expenditure category and commodity or
service group; and CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, all items
(1967=100, unless otherwise indicated)
Series
108
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
196.2
202.3
178.1
326.2
212.0
209.0
334.2
197.1
203.6
178.1
329.2
215.3
207.9
335.6
196.6
204.6
176.2
323.8
215.6
208.9
336.2
194.5
202.1
173.1
329.3
214.9
207.8
336.6
190.5
198.6
168.2
319.1
211.1
210.1
339.7
191.5
198.9
169.2
322.2
212.4
212.1
340.5
198.3
201.9
178.6
337.3
217.7
214.1
341.8
202.1
204.3
184.4
336.3
220.0
213.9
341.6
201.2
205.7
181.8
334.7
221.3
213.1
343.3
197.5
204.0
175.8
324.2
219.4
217.0
343.8
193.6
201.7
170.4
318.3
215.5
217.6
344.8
300.9
294.4
223.6
223.9
358.0
266.7
266.1
365.7
302.2
204.0
330.9
418.4
301.8
295.3
223.3
223.7
359.5
271.9
271.4
366.6
299.7
202.7
328.1
418.8
302.2
295.7
225.7
226.3
360.6
264.0
263.4
367.2
305.2
201.1
335.4
418.9
304.0
297.5
229.4
230.0
361.0
262.0
261.3
369.7
309.5
202.3
340.7
421.1
304.2
297.5
230.7
231.4
356.6
263.2
262.5
372.3
309.9
202.8
341.0
425.8
308.2
301.6
231.2
232.0
354.7
277.7
277.1
373.4
312.6
204.3
344.0
426.7
309.9
303.4
228.9
229.3
357.0
289.5
288.9
375.1
311.5
204.0
342.6
427.2
310.8
304.2
228.2
228.5
363.1
291.3
290.7
374.9
311.7
204.3
342.9
428.7
313.9
307.4
229.0
229.5
371.7
298.7
298.3
377.9
312.1
202.6
344.1
428.9
315.5
309.1
229.5
230.3
378.7
301.2
300.7
378.1
312.9
204.0
344.6
428.9
317.9
311.7
229.9
230.9
383.0
307.6
307.2
378.3
314.7
204.4
346.9
426.9
319.7
313.6
230.3
231.6
385.4
313.0
312.6
378.8
315.8
203.8
348.7
426.9
432.4
274.6
466.9
392.3
435.0
275.2
470.1
394.0
437.1
275.8
472.6
396.6
439.7
276.6
475.6
398.4
441.7
277.0
478.2
400.2
443.9
279.8
480.1
401.5
446.7
281.4
483.2
404.2
449.7
282.9
486.5
407.4
452.3
285.1
489.2
410.2
454.9
286.2
492.1
413.3
456.6
288.2
493.6
414.7
459.3
290.5
496.2
417.5
462.1
292.1
499.4
419.7
234.2
236.3
236.8
239.1
240.4
241.6
243.2
244.6
245.4
246.5
247.4
248.2
250.9
276.9
265.9
297.2
277.0
265.9
297.4
278.2
266.8
299.0
July
Aug.
191.5
199.7
169.4
329.4
211.8
206.1
332.0
186.3
195.4
160.8
323.7
209.6
206.5
332.2
190.8
197.1
169.3
328.6
209.9
209.5
332.3
321.6
317.4
214.2
214.5
379.7
375.4
375.0
352.6
287.7
204.7
312.3
391.7
307.6
301.5
223.3
223.6
363.2
293.1
292.5
364.7
302.2
203.9
330.9
416.3
304.6
298.3
223.7
223.9
360.3
280.9
280.5
365.0
302.4
203.8
331.2
418.0
401.2
256.3
432.7
367.7
221.2
431.0
272.8
465.7
391.4
234.2
1985
1986
Apparel commodities..................................................................
Men’s and boys’ apparel..........................................................
Women’s and girls’ apparel .....................................................
Infants’ and toddlers’ apparel..................................................
Footwear...................................................................................
Other apparel commodities......................................................
Apparel services..........................................................................
191.3
198.2
171.3
311.7
212.5
203.1
318.5
Transportation ...............................................................................
Private transportation..................................................................
New vehicles.............................................................................
New cars................................................................................
Used cars.................................................................................
Motor fuel .................................................................................
Gasoline.................................................................................
Maintenance and repair............................................................
Other private transportation.....................................................
Other private transportation commodities.............................
Other private transportation services....................................
Public transportation...................................................................
Medical care..................................................................................
Medical care commodities..........................................................
Medical care services.................................................................
Professional services...............................................................
Hospital and related services ..............................................................
1987
1986
Annual
average
Sept.
Entertainment ................................................................................
Entertainment commodities ........................................................
Entertainment services................................................................
260.1
254.2
271.6
268.7
259.5
286.0
269.0
259.6
286.5
269.2
259.8
286.7
270.0
259.8
288.9
271.1
260.6
290.7
272.1
261.7
291.6
272.3
261.7
292.0
272.9
262.2
292.7
273.4
262.3
293.9
274.4
263.7
294.2
276.0
264.7
296.6
Other goods and services .............................................................
Tobacco products.......................................................................
Personal care..............................................................................
Toilet goods and personal care appliances.............................
Personal care services .............................................................
Personal and educational expenses...........................................
School books and supplies......................................................
Personal and educational services..........................................
322.7
328.1
279.6
279.0
280.5
399.3
355.7
410.1
341.7
350.7
289.0
288.6
289.8
430.7
384.8
442.0
341.2
354.0
288.8
287.8
290.2
423.8
380.5
434.6
342.6
355.9
289.9
289.7
290.5
425.1
381.4
436.0
347.5
356.5
289.5
288.7
290.8
446.1
393.9
458.7
348.8
356.8
290.8
290.5
291.6
448.7
396.7
461.3
349.2
356.9
291.2
290.5
292.4
449.4
396.9
462.1
349.5
357.2
291.3
290.3
292.7
450.0
397.1
462.8
352.8
364.7
293.2
292.0
294.9
452.0
406.5
464.3
354.6
368.0
294.1
293.2
295.4
453.7
409.3
465.9
355.1
369.2
293.9
292.7
295.5
454.3
409.6
466.6
356.0
370.0
294.7
293.6
296.2
455.5
410.1
467.8
356.9
370.5
296.4
294.9
298.4
456.1
410.5
468.5
357.8
372.3
296.4
294.8
298.8
457.3
410.6
469.8
360.5
379.7
297.3
296.1
299.1
458.4
410.7
471.0
All items...........................................................................................
Commodities..................................................................................
Food and beverages...................................................................
Commodities less food and beverages......................................
Nondurables less food and beverages ...................................
Apparel commodities..............................................................
Nondurables less food, beverages, and apparel ..................
Durables....................................................................................
318.5
286.5
301.8
274.9
283.8
191.3
334.2
265.2
323.4
283.1
311.6
264.2
265.6
191.5
306.7
264.0
322.9
281.1
312.0
260.7
260.1
186.3
301.0
263.2
323.4
281.1
314.5
259.4
258.1
190.8
295.9
262.6
324.9
282.6
315.0
261.5
261.5
196.2
298.4
263.0
325.0
282.6
315.4
261.1
260.2
197.1
296.0
264.0
325.4
283.1
316.2
261.5
259.7
196.6
295.6
265.3
325.7
283.3
316.8
261.5
259.9
194.5
296.9
265.0
327.7
285.5
320.3
262.9
262.3
190.5
304.4
265.4
329.0
287.0
321.3
264.6
266.0
191.5
310.2
264.5
330.5
288.6
321.2
267.2
270.0
198.3
311.5
265.3
332.3
290.7
322.1
269.9
273.7
202.1
315.0
266.8
333.4
291.6
323.5
270.6
274.2
201.2
316.5
267.8
334.9
292.4
325.0
270.9
274.1
197.5
319.5
268.5
335.6
292.5
324.8
271.2
274.1
193.6
322.8
269.1
Services..........................................................................................
Rent of shelter (12/84—100).....................................................
Household services less rent of shelter (12/84 —100)..............
Transportation services...............................................................
Medical care services.................................................................
Other services .............................................................................
377.3
103.2
102.6
332.2
432.7
310.1
395.7
109.0
103.9
350.1
465.7
326.9
397.7
109.2
106.0
350.6
466.9
325.6
399.0
109.6
106.4
350.7
470.1
326.0
400.4
110.3
106.0
349.2
472.6
332.2
401.0
110.8
103.8
353.8
475.6
333.8
401.0
111.0
102.0
357.9
478.2
334.7
401.5
111.1
101.8
359.5
480.1
335.1
403.3
111.5
102.3
361.7
483.2
336.4
404.5
111.9
102.5
361.3
486.5
337.5
405.9
112.5
102.5
361.6
489.2
338.0
407.3
113.0
102.4
363.2
492.1
339.4
408.8
113.4
103.2
363.5
493.6
340.3
411.4
113.5
105.7
364.7
496.2
340.9
412.8
114.0
105.9
365.9
499.4
342.0
Special indexes:
All items less food ......................................................................
Ail items less shelter ..................................................................
All items less homeowners’ costs (1 2 /8 4 -1 0 0 ).......................
All items less medical care.........................................................
Commodities less food................................................................
Nondurables less food ................................................................
Nondurables less food and apparel ...........................................
Nondurables................................................................................
Services less rent of shelter (12/84—100)................................
Services less medical care.........................................................
Energy..........................................................................................
All items less energy ..................................................................
All items less food and energy ..................................................
Commodities less food and energy............................................
Energy commodities ...................................................................
Services less energy...................................................................
319.4
303.4
101.8
314.3
272.8
279.0
320.3
293.9
102.6
369.0
426.3
309.9
308.7
256.8
410.9
371.1
323.0
305.1
102.8
318.0
262.9
262.7
296.9
289.8
107.1
385.9
367.5
321.2
320.3
259.8
322.9
391.9
322.3
304.3
102.6
317.4
259.6
257.7
291.8
287.2
107.8
387.9
363.1
321.1
320.1
258.5
307.2
392.6
322.2
304.6
102.7
317.8
258.3
255.8
287.3
287.5
108.1
389.0
354.8
322.4
321.0
259.3
292.9
393.7
323.9
305.9
103.2
319.3
260.3
259.1
289.6
289.5
108.3
390.3
356.9
323.9
322.7
260.9
298.2
395.7
324.0
305.7
103.2
319.3
260.0
257.8
287.4
289.0
108.2
390.6
344.8
325.3
324.4
261.7
290.9
398.2
324.2
305.9
103.2
319.6
260.3
257.4
287.0
289.2
108.1
390.4
338.5
326.3
325.4
262.4
289.1
399.6
324.4
306.3
103.4
319.8
260.4
257.6
288.2
289.6
108.3
390.7
339.2
326.5
325.6
262.1
291.1
400.2
326.0
308.4
104.0
321.8
261.8
259.9
294.8
292.5
108.8
392.5
349.8
327.8
326.3
261.7
307.2
401.9
327.4
309.6
104.5
323.0
263.5
263.3
299.7
294.9
109.0
393.5
356.9
328.7
327.1
262.0
319.9
403.2
329.3
311.0
104.9
324.5
265.9
266.9
300.9
296.9
109.2
394.7
357.7
330.2
329.0
264.6
321.5
404.7
331.3
312.8
105.5
326.2
268.5
270.4
303.9
299.2
109.5
396.1
360.8
331.9
330.9
266.6
328.9
406.5
332.3
313.9
105.9
327.3
269.2
270.8
305.3
300.1
109.9
397.5
364.9
332.8
331.6
267.1
331.2
407.5
333.7
315.6
106.4
328.8
269.5
270.9
307.9
300.9
111.1
400.1
378.6
333.2
331.8
266.7
337.7
408.2
334.6
315.9
106.6
329.3
269.8
270.9
310.8
300.8
111.5
401.4
380.6
333.8
332.6
266.3
343.1
410.1
Purchasing power of the consumer dollar:
1 967-$1.00................................................................................
1957-59-$1.00...........................................................................
31.4
27.0
30.9
26.6
31.0
26.6
30.9
26.6
30.8
26.5
30.8
26.5
30.7
26.4
30.7
26.4
30.5
26.2
30.4
26.1
30.3
26.0
30.1
25.9
30.0
25.8
29.9
25.7
29.8
25.6
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
30. Continued— Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, by expenditure category and commodity or
service group; and CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, all items
(1967=100, unless otherwise indicated)
1987
1986
Annual
Series
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
328.4
283.9
311.8
264.7
265.2
192.0
307.3
270.2
328.0
281.9
312.2
261.4
259.8
187.0
301.7
269.6
328.6
281.9
314.6
260.1
258.1
191.2
296.9
269.0
330.2
283.5
315.1
262.3
261.5
196.6
299.5
269.3
330.5
283.6
315.6
262.1
260.4
197.6
297.2
270.5
330.8
284.0
316.4
262.4
260.0
197.4
296.7
271.8
331.1
284.2
317.0
262.4
260.0
194.9
298.0
271.7
333.1
286.3
320.5
263.7
261.8
190.9
304.8
272.4
334.4
287.7
321.6
265.2
265.4
192.1
310.3
271.2
335.9
289.5
321.6
267.9
269.7
199.1
311.9
271.7
337.7
291.4
322.5
270.4
273.2
202.6
315.0
273.0
338.7
292.3
324.0
270.9
273.5
201.8
316.4
273.6
340.1
292.8
325.4
270.9
273.2
198.1
319.1
274.2
340.8
292.8
325.1
271.0
272.8
194.0
322.0
274.9
381.5
113.9
111.2
337.0
435.1
314.1
400.5
120.2
112.8
356.3
468.6
331.8
402.3
120.5
114.9
357.1
469.8
330.1
403.7
120.9
115.3
357.3
473.0
330.8
405.5
121.7
114.9
356.2
475.7
337.9
406.1
122.2
112.9
360.5
478.8
339.5
406.1
122.4
111.0
364.4
481.5
340.3
406.6
122.5
110.8
366.2
483.4
340.8
408.6
123.1
111.3
368.5
486.5
342.2
409.9
123.6
111.5
368.5
489.6
343.1
411.2
124.1
111.5
369.0
492.1
343.7
412.8
124.8
111.4
370.5
494.7
345.0
414.2
125.1
112.3
370.5
496.0
345.9
416.7
125.4
114.8
371.6
498.4
346.6
418.3
126.0
115.1
372.9
501.5
347.7
Special indexes:
All items less food ......................................................................
All items less shelter ..................................................................
All items less homeowners’ costs (12/82—100).......................
All items less medical care.........................................................
Commodities less food...............................................................
Nondurables less food ................................................................
Nondurables less food and apparel ...........................................
Nondurables................................................................................
Services less rent of shelter (12/82 = 100)...............................
Services less medical care.........................................................
Energy..........................................................................................
All items less energy ..................................................................
All items less food and energy ..................................................
Commodities less food and energy............................................
Energy commodities ...................................................................
Services less energy...................................................................
323.3
303.9
109.7
317.7
272.5
277.2
319.2
293.2
113.5
373.3
426.5
314.8
314.4
259.7
409.9
375.9
328.6
306.7
111.2
322.6
263.4
262.2
297.1
289.6
118.7
390.6
370.3
327.0
327.1
263.2
322.4
397.1
328.0
306.1
111.0
322.1
260.2
257.3
292.2
287.1
119.5
392.5
366.5
326.9
326.9
262.0
306.6
397.7
328.1
306.4
111.2
322.6
259.0
255.6
287.9
287.4
119.8
393.6
358.6
328.3
327.9
262.9
292.4
399.0
330.0
307.9
111.7
324.2
261.1
258.9
290.2
289.4
120.2
395.4
360.6
330.0
329.9
264.5
297.7
401.4
330.2
307.8
111.7
324.4
260.9
257.8
288.1
289.0
120.1
395.7
348.6
331.4
331.6
265.5
290.6
403.7
330.4
308.0
111.8
324.5
261.2
257.4
287.7
289.2
120.0
395.4
341.7
332.3
332.5
266.1
288.5
405.0
330.6
308.3
111.9
324.8
261.2
257.5
288.9
289.5
120.2
395.8
342.4
332.6
332.8
265.8
290.5
405.7
332.2
310.3
112.7
326.7
262.5
259.2
294.9
292.1
120.8
397.6
352.2
334.0
333.6
265.5
306.1
407.5
333.6
311.5
113.1
328.0
264.0
262.6
299.6
294.6
121.1
398.8
359.2
334.9
334.5
265.7
319.2
408.9
335.4
312.9
113.6
329.4
266.5
266.4
301.0
296.8
121.3
400.0
360.0
336.5
336.4
268.4
320.9
410.4
337.3
314.6
114.2
331.1
268.9
269.6
303.7
299.1
121.6
401.5
362.4
338.2
338.3
270.3
328.0
412.3
338.3
315.6
114.6
332.2
269.4
270.0
305.0
300.0
122.1
402.9
366.9
339.0
338.9
270.7
330.2
413.2
339.6
317.1
115.1
333.5
269.5
269.8
307.4
300.5
123.2
405.4
380.6
339.5
339.1
270.1
336.4
414.1
340.5
317.4
115.3
334.1
269.6
269.5
309.9
300.1
123.7
406.8
382.4
340.1
339.9
269.6
341.4
416.0
Purchasing power of the consumer dollar:
1967 -$ 1 .0 0 ................................................................................
1957-59-$1.00...........................................................................
31.0
26.7
30.5
26.2
30.5
26.2
30.4
26.2
30.3
26.0
30.3
26.0
30.2
26.0
30.2
26.0
30.0
25.8
29.9
25.7
29.8
25.6
29.6
25.5
29.5
25.4
29.4
25.3
29.3
25.2
All items .........................................................................................
All items (1957-59-100).................................................................
318.5
370.4
323.4
376.1
322.9
375.5
323.4
376.1
324.9
377.8
325.0
378.0
325.4
378.4
325.7
378.8
327.7
381.1
329.0
382.6
330.5
384.4
332.3
386.5
333.4
387.8
334.9
389.5
335.6
390.3
Food and beverages .....................................................................
Food............................................................................................
Food at home ...........................................................................
Cereals and bakery products.................................................
Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs................................................
Dairy products........................................................................
Fruits and vegetables.............................................................
Other foods at home..............................................................
Sugar and sweets...............................................................
Fats and oils........................................................................
Nonalcoholic beverages......................................................
Other prepared foods..........................................................
Food away from home .............................................................
Alcoholic beverages....................................................................
301.8
309.3
295.3
315.4
262.7
256.9
320.3
361.5
398.3
293.9
453.2
295.7
349.7
232.6
311.6
319.2
303.7
324.2
274.4
257.1
323.8
373.5
410.5
287.2
478.1
303.2
363.4
242.5
312.0
319.5
303.9
324.6
274.0
257.0
325.6
373.4
411.9
286.6
477.6
303.1
364.2
243.4
314.5
322.3
307.3
326.7
282.2
256.9
327.2
373.9
412.6
287.1
476.9
304.5
365.2
243.0
315.0
322.8
307.5
326.8
284.0
257.1
324.2
373.5
413.0
285.1
475.5
305.2
366.6
243.4
315.4
323.3
307.9
326.8
284.4
258.6
322.9
374.4
412.8
284.1
477.7
305.9
367.3
243.5
316.2
324.2
308.4
327.0
285.8
259.9
322.2
373.9
411.9
284.5
477.1
305.3
369.2
243.4
316.8
324.8
308.7
328.0
286.6
260.9
323.4
372.2
411.2
285.5
470.3
306.6
370.5
243.9
320.3
328.4
313.4
330.0
288.5
262.0
338.2
378.9
414.9
292.6
483.7
309.7
372.2
245.4
321.3
329.5
314.6
331.2
285.8
263.6
348.2
380.0
414.8
289.9
482.5
313.3
373.2
246.2
321.2
329.4
313.8
331.6
285.6
262.4
346.0
378.8
416.5
293.9
476.9
312.6
374.3
246.5
322.1
330.2
314.9
334.1
285.2
262.0
353.6
377.8
416.5
291.3
471.3
314.5
374.8
247.2
323.5
331.8
316.8
334.8
287.9
263.1
358.5
377.9
417.1
292.6
470.0
314.9
375.6
247.8
325.0
333.4
318.5
335.4
290.0
262.5
366.7
376.8
418.7
290.7
464.5
315.8
377.1
248.6
324.8
333.1
317.5
336.8
292.5
261.9
354.1
376.3
418.3
292.2
460.5
316.7
378.2
249.2
Housing ..........................................................................................
Shelter .........................................................................................
Renters’ costs (12/84—100)..................................................
Rent, residential.....................................................................
Other renters’ costs ...............................................................
Homeowners’ costs (12/84 —100)...........................................
Owners’ equivalent rent (12/84=100) ..................................
Household insurance (12/8 4=1 0 0 )......................................
Maintenance and repairs..........................................................
Maintenance and repair services ..........................................
Maintenance and repair commodities...................................
Fuel and other utilities................................................................
Fuels .........................................................................................
Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas ...............................................
Gas (piped) and electricity ....................................................
Other utilities and public services............................................
Household furnishings and operations.......................................
Housefurnishings......................................................................
Housekeeping supplies.............................................................
Housekeeping services.............................................................
343.3
370.4
103.6
263.7
397.9
103.1
103.0
103.2
364.1
415.0
261.1
394.7
487.5
622.0
451.6
241.6
243.4
197.6
310.7
340.2
353.2
390.7
109.5
279.1
416.0
108.8
108.8
109.4
369.4
425.3
262.5
385.4
462.7
504.5
445.6
253.8
246.5
198.4
317.1
348.2
354.5
391.5
110.0
280.3
420.4
108.8
108.8
110.1
366.7
425.2
259.0
390.3
469.1
462.9
461.4
256.3
246.5
198.4
317.1
348.4
355.4
392.9
110.3
280.8
426.1
109.3
109.2
110.1
371.5
428.6
263.5
390.6
469.3
450.7
464.1
256.6
246.6
198.3
317.3
349.1
356.6
395.2
110.9
282.2
428.9
110.0
110.0
110.4
370.6
430.7
261.1
389.1
467.1
456.6
460.3
256.2
247.5
199.4
317.9
349.5
355.6
397.1
111.4
283.6
426.7
110.5
110.5
110.8
373.1
431.1
264.3
379.3
449.2
454.8
439.6
257.8
247.5
199.3
317.8
350.1
354.3
397.8
111.7
284.6
424.8
110.7
110.7
111.3
372.4
428.2
265.0
371.3
437.1
455.0
425.3
255.8
247.2
198.5
318.4
350.1
354.8
398.1
111.6
285.1
417.3
110.8
110.8
111.7
374.6
428.1
268.0
371.1
437.3
463.5
423.8
255.3
248.5
199.7
320.6
350.8
356.3
399.6
112.3
286.1
424.9
111.1
111.1
111.9
377.3
434.5
267.6
373.9
442.7
489.3
427.4
255.6
248.9
200.0
322.0
351.2
357.5
401.2
112.7
287.0
427.6
111.6
111.5
112.1
376.9
432.5
268.4
374.9
443.7
503.9
427.3
256.5
249.4
200.2
323.1
352.0
358.8
403.2
113.3
287.3
439.0
112.1
112.1
112.4
378.5
436.8
267.9
375.1
443.2
501.4
427.0
257.1
250.1
200.7
325.2
352.3
360.0
405.1
113.8
287.8
448.1
112.7
112.7
112.5
378.0
435.7
267.9
374.3
440.7
501.1
424.4
257.8
250.8
201.4
325.7
353.3
361.1
406.3
114.0
288.3
449.2
113.1
113.1
113.1
378.0
433.2
269.7
377.5
446.9
498.2
431.2
258.1
250.5
200.5
327.2
354.0
363.5
406.9
114.2
288.5
453.1
113.2
113.2
113.8
380.9
438.3
270.5
388.0
470.0
499.4
455.4
257.4
250.4
200.5
327.5
354.0
364.6
408.7
115.3
290.0
467.0
113.4
113.4
114.6
386.4
449.8
270.7
388.3
467.6
498.4
453.0
259.5
250.7
200.8
327.6
354.4
Apparel and upkeep ......................................................................
205.0
206.5
201.8
205.9
211.0
211.9
211.5
209.6
205.8
206.9
213.7
217.4
216.6
213.0
209.1
1985
1986
All items............................................................................................
Commodities..................................................................................
Food and beverages...................................................................
Commodities less food and beverages......................................
Nondurables less food and beverages ...................................
Apparel commodities..............................................................
Nondurables less food, beverages, and apparel ..................
Durables....................................................................................
322.2
286.7
302.0
274.6
282.1
191.6
333.3
270.7
Services..........................................................................................
Rent of shelter (12/82—100).....................................................
Household services less rent of shelter (12/82 —100).............
Transportation services...............................................................
Medical care services.................................................................
Other services .............................................................................
C O N S U M E R PR IC E IN D E X FO R UR BA N W A G E EA R N ER S
A N D C L E R IC A L W O R KE RS:
See footnotes at end of table.
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
109
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
31.
September 1987 •
Current Labor Statistics:
Price Data
Consumer Price Index: U.S. city average and available local area data: all items
(1967=100, unless otherwise indicated)
Urban Wage Earners
All Urban Consumers
Area1
Pricing
sche index
base
dule2
July
U.S. city average...................
Region and area size3
Northeast urban.....................
Size A - More than
1,200,000 .............................
Size B - 500,000 to
1,200,000 .............................
Size C - 50,000 to
500,000 ................................
North Central urban ...............
Size A - More than
1,200,000 .............................
Size B - 360,000 to
1,200,000 .............................
Size C - 50,000 to
360,000 ................................
Size D - Nonmetro
politan (less
than 50,0000 .......................
South urban............................
Size A - More than
1,200,000 .............................
Size B - 450,000 to
1,200,000 .............................
Size C - 50,000 to
450,000 ................................
Size D - Nonmetro
politan (less
than 50,000) ........................
West urban.............................
Size A - More than
1,250,000 .............................
Size B - 330,000 to
1,250,000 .............................
Size C - 50,000 to
330,000 ................................
Size classes:
A ...........................................
B ...........................................
C ..........................................
D ..........................................
Selected local areas
Chicago, ILNorthwestern IN ...................
Los Angeles-Long
Beach, Anaheim, C A ...........
New York, NYNortheastern N J ...................
Philadelphia, PA-NJ................
San FranciscoOakland, C A ..........................
1987
1986
M
-
M
12/77
328.0
M
12/77
.
M
12/77
_
Aug.
Mar.
Apr.
June
July
340.8
July
Aug.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
322.9
323.4
330.5
332.3
333.4
334.9
335.6
172.2
177.0
178.2
178.9
179.5
179.9
168.8
173.0
174.4
175.2
176.1
176.3
328.6
335.9
337.7
338.7
340.1
175.0
179.9
181.0
181.7
182.4
182.7
180.7
_
182.5
_
171.8
177.7
179.3
179.7
179.0
179.5
193.1
175.3
193.1
176.2
193.5
176.7
194.1
178.3
195.1
178.6
173.1
177.5
178.8
179.5
180.5
174.7
180.7
182.3
182.8
182.0
182.8
176.2
188.8
179.5
188.9
180.4
189.0
180.8
189.7
182.4
190.9
182.6
_
-
187.2
172.2
.
180.7
183.2
184.0
184.5
186.6
186.9
_
175.0
177.3
178.3
178.8
180.7
181.0
12/77
.
172.5
177.8
179.5
179.5
180.2
180.2
_
168.1
173.1
174.6
174.8
175.5
175.6
M 12/77
.
167.7
171.5
172.2
173.0
174.0
174.3
172.4
175.3
175.1
179.0
175.7
179.7
176.2
180.3
177.4
181.0
178.2
181.6
176.1
179.6
180.7
181.4
182.1
182.7
M
M
12/77
12/77
M
12/77
M
M
M
12/77
12/77
M
12/77
M
-
.
12/77
.
171.2
175.3
176.1
176.9
177.8
178.2
»
171.4
176.4
174.0
180.2
174.6
180.9
174.9
181.4
176.1
182.1
176.7
182.6
-
176.7
180.4
181.5
182.0
182.6
183.3
_
174.6
178.1
178.7
179.1
179.6
180.0
175.3
179.3
179.8
180.4
181.6
182.2
175.0
176.4
178.4
180.1
178.6
181.1
179.5
181.7
179.7
181.9
180.6
182.1
178.6
182.3
183.0
183.2
183.7
184.1
_
174.8
178.8
179.2
179.8
180.8
181.4
_
174.3
179.0
177.8
182.7
178.0
183.8
178.9
184.4
179.1
184.5
179.9
184.7
182.0
186.1
187.2
188.1
187.9
188.1
_
M
12/77
M
M
12/77
12/77
M
12/77
176.9
181.0
182.1
182.9
182.8
182.9
M
12/77
.
178.1
181.4
182.7
183.2
183.9
184.0
_
178.3
181.5
182.8
183.5
184.0
184.2
M
12/77
-
173.0
175.2
175.8
175.2
176.4
176.6
-
171.1
173.3
173.8
173.2
174.2
174.6
M
M
M
M
12/77
12/77
12/77
12/77
-
176.6
175.0
173.8
101.6
181.0
179.1
176.9
102.2
182.1
179.6
177.4
102.5
182.4
180.0
178.2
103.0
182.7
181.0
178.8
103.2
183.0
181.5
179.5
322.9
_
-
323.4
173.5
174.8
174.5
330.5
177.8
178.9
177.6
332.3
178.9
179.4
178.1
333.4
179.3
179.8
178.9
334.9
179.6
180.8
179.6
335.6
179.9
181.4
180.3
M
331.1
331.4
335.5
337.1
338.4
345.0
346.1
316.0
316.2
320.1
321.6
322.7
328.9
330.0
M
330.9
330.9
341.4
342.8
345.1
344.2
344.1
323.8
323.5
333.4
334.8
337.1
336.3
336.2
M
M
-
325.1
323.0
325.9
323.1
334.7
329.4
337.0
333.8
339.0
336.2
340.6
339.0
340.7
339.1
316.5
324.6
317.2
324.4
325.7
330.4
328.2
334.9
330.2
337.5
331.7
340.4
331.6
340.7
M
-
-
345.5
349.6
353.0
353.5
353.5
356.0
-
339.0
343.4
346.9
347.0
347.3
349.3
330.2
323.6
_
-
171.6
320.6
330.2
-
-
337.4
332.9
334.2
179.2
326.3
343.2
-
329.9
333.2
334.7
333.3
178.6
324.3
340.1
-
-
-
343.8
338.0
361.4
180.5
334.7
343.1
327.9
320.8
171.2
325.6
329.3
340.1
335.1
357.5
179.1
330.5
340.5
_
352.7
335.9
336.8
356.8
178.4
328.8
338.0
_
-
341.9
336.3
337.9
180.9
331.0
345.4
_
_
-
307.5
339.1
312.8
330.5
309.2
Baltimore, MD ........................
Boston, MA ............................
Cleveland, O H ........................
Miami, F L ................................
St. Louis, MO-IL.....................
Washington, DC-MD-VA ........
_
1
1
1
1 11/77
1
1
-
Dallas-Ft. Worth, T X ...............
Detroit, M l...............................
Houston, TX ...........................
Pittsburgh, PA ........................
2
2
2
2
_
-
-
_
-
318.4
-
-
-
-
346.2
323.2
332.9
330.1
_
-
-
351.8
330.5
341.1
338.2
1 Area is the Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Area (CMSA), exclu
sive of farms and military. Area definitions are those established by the Of
fice of Management and Budget in 1983, except for Boston-Lawrence-Salem, MA-NH Area (excludes Monroe County); and Milwaukee, Wl Area (in
cludes only the Milwaukee MSA). Definitions do not include revisions made
since 1983.
2 Foods, fuels, and several other items priced every month in all areas;
most other goods and services priced as indicated:.
M - Every month.
1 - January, March, May, July, September, and November.
2 - February, April, June, August, October, and December.
Digitized for
110FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May
1987
1986
_
-
-
354.1
330.2
341.5
338.9
-
-
-
-
“
”
-
-
-
-
344.4
319.9
338.5
316.6
-
”
347.4
319.7
339.7
317.8
-
-
"
3 Regions are defined as the four Census regions.
- Data not available.
NOTE: Local area CPI indexes are byproducts of the national CPI pro
gram. Because each local index is a small subset of the national index, it
has a smaller sample size and is, therefore, subject to substantially more
sampling and other measurement error than the national index. As a result,
local area indexes show greater volatility than the national index, although
their long-term trends are quite similar. Therefore, the Bureau of Labor Sta
tistics strongly urges users to consider adopting the national average CPI
for use in escalator clauses.
32. Annual data: Consumer Price Index all items and major groups
Series
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers:
All items:
In d e x .....................................................
Percent ch a n g e .................................
Food and beverages:
In d e x ........................................
Percent ch a n g e ...............................
Housing:
In d e x .......................................................
Percent c h a n g e .....................................
Apparel and upkeep:
In d e x .............................................
Percent ch a n g e ........................................
Transportation:
In d e x .................................................
Percent ch a n g e ..................................
Medical care:
In d e x ............................................
Percent ch a n g e .......................................
Entertainment:
In d e x ..................................................
Percent ch a n g e ...................................
Other goods and services:
In d e x ..........................................
Percent ch a n g e ....................................
Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and
Clerical Workers:
All items:
In d e x ........................................
Percent ch a n g e ...............................
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
—
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
195.4
7.7
217.4
11.3
246.8
13.5
272.4
10.4
289.1
6.1
298.4
3.2
311.1
4.3
322.2
3.6
328.4
1.9
206.3
9.7
228.5
10.8
248.0
8.5
267.3
7.8
278.2
4.1
284.4
2.2
295.1
3.8
302.0
2.3
311.8
3.2
202.8
8.7
227.6
12.2
263.3
15.7
293.5
11.5
314.7
7.2
323.1
2.7
336.5
4.1
349.9
4.0
360.2
2.9
159.6
3.5
166.6
4.4
178.4
7.1
186.9
4.8
191.8
2.6
196.5
2.5
200.2
1.9
206.0
2.9
207.8
.9
185.5
4.7
212.0
14.3
249.7
17.8
280.0
12.1
291.5
4.1
298.4
2.4
311.7
4.5
319.9
2.6
307.5
-3.9
219.4
8.4
239.7
9.3
265.9
10.9
294.5
10.8
328.7
11.6
357.3
8.7
379.5
6.2
403.1
6.2
433.5
7.5
176.6
5.3
188.5
6.7
205.3
8.9
221.4
7.8
235.8
6.5
246.0
4.3
255.1
3.7
265.0
3.9
274.1
3.4
183.3
6.4
196.7
7.3
214.5
9.0
235.7
9.9
259.9
10.3
288.3
10.9
307.7
6.7
326.6
6.1
346.4
6.1
195.3
7.6
217.7
11.5
247.0
13.5
272.3
10.2
288.6
6.0
297.4
3.0
307.6
3.4
318.5
3.5
323.4
1.5
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
33.
September 1987 •
Current Labor Statistics:
Price Data
Producer Price Indexes, by stage of processing
(1967 = 100)
1985
293.7
291.8
271.2
Finished consumer goods excluding
Finished consumer goods less e n e rg y ........
Finished goods less food and energy .........
Finished consumer goods less food and
Jan.
Dec.
Feb.
Apr.
May
June
July
297.8
293.8
287.6
292.3
292.6
287.5
280.3
295.0
290.3
283.3
296.3
292.0
286.7
296.8
292.7
287.7
284.4
285.3
253.2
311.2
250.7
310.7
286.3
312.2
250.6
310.5
288.9
315 2
252.1
311.7
289.6
316.5
252.0
311.9
290.1
317.4
251.9
311.6
292.0
320.2
252.3
312.1
290.7
285.1
283.1
290.4
284.8
282.9
291.8
280.1
277.4
304.5
241.7
303.9
281.0
301.9
253.5
309.9
281.2
302.2
253.5
310.4
304.8
304.8
305.0
307.0
308.9
309.3
317.1
306.1
314.8
304.5
312.7
307.6
310.9
318.7
299.5
258.8
285.9
320.2
291.5
296.1
251.0
279.1
313.8
294.4
296.0
255.5
277.1
313.6
294.9
296.2
254.3
277.0
314.9
295.0
296.4
253.9
277.5
315.3
294.9
296.4
253.2
278.0
314.9
294.9
296.4
253.2
278.3
313.9
295.2
297.8
251.1
281.3
315.8
295.8
298.7
251.6
283.1
316.2
296.1
299.5
250.4
283.9
317.8
297.0
301.3
255.3
286.3
320.3
297.1
303.2
261.5
287.9
323.9
297.3
304.6
261.2
291.6
325.3
297.2
306.4
262.0
293.1
329.7
298.0
315.2
548.9
311.2
284.2
317.4
430.2
314.9
287.3
317.6
395.0
316.2
287.1
317.6
409.1
317.4
288.0
317.3
394.9
318.1
287.5
317.5
392.8
319.0
288.0
316.9
395.5
319.2
288.2
317.1
406.7
320.7
317.9
318.7
416.0
324.9
289.6
319.3
420.8
325.3
290.7
319.9
425.0
325.0
292.1
320.2
437.5
326.1
292.7
321.8
449.5
326.1
293.2
306.1
235.0
459.2
280.3
231.0
386.8
276.3
238.1
358.3
275.4
233.5
365.6
277.2
235.0
367.9
279.2
236.8
370.3
277.0
233.5
370.6
284.2
227.6
394.2
287.2
229.9
288.6
229.6
402.0
295.5
239.4
405.4
304.7
251.3
414.0
304.9
246.5
420.1
307.8
243.1
431.0
299.0
720.9
269.2
261.3
268.7
291.1
518.5
275.6
267.9
274.9
286.8
456.2
277.2
270.0
274.8
286.1
471.7
275.5
268.5
272.9
290.4
452.1
280.0
272.6
278.9
290.7
453.7
280.0
272.4
279.1
290.4
454.6
279.6
272.0
278.7
293.2
477.4
279.7
271.8
279.8
293.6
489.6
279.3
294.3
495.5
279.5
271.8
279.5
296.4
511.5
281.1
273.4
280.5
296.9
516.5
282.2
274.9
280.7
297.2
520.7
282.5
275.3
280.7
298.6
527.5
283.1
276.0
281.6
262.6
262.6
262.2
263.4
262.9
263.3
265.7
256.7
264.5
258.4
264.4
258.4
264.1
252.1
254.8
254.9
254.7
256.4
257.2
257.9
260.7
254.2
258.9
253.8
258.7
253.0
258.2
246.2
325.0
232.8
528.3
304.0
313.3
230.3
414.4
303.5
309.9
232.1
380.7
303.5
311.5
233.2
393.8
304.0
310.4
230.3
380.3
303.9
310.3
231.0
378.3
304.1
310.5
312.8
314.7
380.7
304.1
391.3
305.2
315.3
227.6
400.3
306.8
316.8
232.3
404.9
308.2
318.1
240.2
408.1
309.8
320.3
241.3
420.1
310.8
322.8
241.1
431.7
312.2
304.8
304.9
304.8
306.2
307.2
308.1
313.2
304.6
311.6
304.2
310.5
304.4
309.3
305.2
748.1
233.2
249.7
575.8
229.2
245.6
520.4
232.4
235.9
533.9
229.7
239.1
534.4
231.6
242.3
537.0
233.3
244.4
533.2
231.5
247.1
578.0
228.1
250.3
584.4
590.1
230.6
590.9
238.4
257.6
606.9
248.4
263.1
612.2
247.1
271.1
629.5
246.0
276.4
Intermediate materials less foods and
Intermediate materials less foods and
Digitized for112
FRASER
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
290.7
285.2
283.6
Nov.
277.5
301.6
245.8
306.2
Consumer nondurable goods less food and
Crude nonfood materials less e n e rg y........
287.3
282.5
282.9
Oct.
283.5
311.2
246.8
306.4
Materials and components for
Sp ecial group ing s
288.1
283.0
284.0
289.7
284.9
278.1
Sept.
297.3
339.3
241.5
300.5
Materials and components for
C ru d e m a terials fo r fu rth e r proce ssin g
Aug.
1986
Mar.
280.8
302.1
252.8
310.1
In te rm e d ia te m aterials, supplies, and
Materials for nondurable manufacturing .
Materials for durable m anufacturing.......
1987
1986
Annual average
G ro uping
-
_
323.6
252.8
34.
Producer Price indexes, by durability of product
(1967 = 100)
Annual average
1987
1986
G ro uping
1985
1986
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Total durable g o o d s ........................................
Total nondurable g o o d s ..................................
297.3
317.2
300.0
298.8
299.9
294.2
298.8
295.6
302.2
294.4
302.4
294.8
302.1
294.7
302.9
298.2
302.8
300.7
303.4
301.1
304.3
304.5
304.9
308.0
305.2
309.8
306.2
312.0
Total m anufactures..........................................
D u rab le............................................................
Nondurable ....................................................
304.3
298.1
310.5
297.6
300.8
294.0
295.5
300.8
289.7
296.0
299.6
292.1
297.0
303.1
290.4
297.1
303.3
290.5
297.2
302.9
291.0
299.5
303.7
294.7
300.7
303.5
297.4
300.8
304.1
297.0
302.9
305.0
300.4
304.4
305.5
302.9
305.4
305.4
304.9
306.8
306.3
306.8
Total raw or slightly processed goods ........
D u ra b le ............................................................
Nondurable ....................................................
327.9
252.2
332.4
305.6
252.0
308.6
300.4
252.0
303.0
299.0
252.8
301.6
299.2
252.0
301.8
300.6
254.4
303.1
298.6
255.4
300.9
301.6
258.8
303.9
303.6
260.9
305.8
305.9
261.1
308.3
308.9
263.2
311.4
315.2
268.4
317.7
316.9
279.0
318.8
320.0
286.3
321.7
35.
Annua! data: Producer Price Indexes, by stage of processing
(1967 = 100)
Index
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
195.9
194.9
199.2
217.7
217.9
216.5
247.0
248.9
239.8
269.8
271.3
264.3
280.7
281.0
279.4
285.2
284.6
287.2
291.1
290.3
294.0
293.7
291.8
300.5
289.7
284.9
306.4
215.6
243.2
280.3
306.0
310.4
312.3
320.0
318.7
307.6
208.7
224.7
295.3
202.8
198.5
234.4
247.4
364.8
226.8
218.2
265.7
268.3
503.0
254.5
244.5
286.1
287.6
595.4
276.1
263.8
289.8
293.7
591.7
285.6
272.1
293.4
301.8
564.8
286.6
277.1
301.8
310.3
566.2
302.3
283.4
299.5
315.2
548.9
311.2
284.2
296.1
317.4
430.2
314.9
287.3
234.4
216.2
272.3
426.8
274.3
247.9
330.0
507.6
304.6
259.2
401.0
615.0
329.0
257.4
482.3
751.2
319 5
247.8
473.9
886.1
323.6
252.2
477.4
931.5
330 8
259.5
484.5
931.3
306 1
235.0
459.2
909.6
280.3
231.0
386.8
817.2
Finished goods:
Total ...........................................................................
Consumer g o o d s .................................................
Capital equipment ...............................................
In te rm e d ia te m aterials, supplies, and
c om po nents:
Total ...........................................................................
Materials and components for
m anufacturing.....................................................
Materials and components for construction ....
Processed fuels and lu b ric a n ts .........................
Containers .............................................................
S u p p lie s .................................................................
C ru d e m a terials fo r fu rth e r processing:
Foodstuffs and feedstuffs ..................................
Nonfood materials except fuel ..........................
Fuel ........................................................................
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
113
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
September 1987 •
Current Labor Statistics:
Price Data
36. U.S. export price indexes by Standard International Trade Classification,
(June 1977=100, unless otherwise indicated)
C a te g o ry
1974
SITO
Dec.
Mar.
June
1987
1986
1985
1984
Sept.
Dec.
Mar.
June
Sept.
Dec.
Mar.
June
98.1
97.5
97.5
96.5
96.7
97.0
96.7
95.1
96.2
97.2
99.9
0
01
03
04
05
08
09
96.5
104.4
98.7
92.9
114.7
82.4
108.4
95.8
103.9
101.0
92.4
119.5
72.8
110.6
94.0
104.7
103.6
90.3
120.2
68.6
109.2
90.2
106.1
102.6
82.6
126.9
75.7
108.1
93.6
112.2
101.8
87.1
118.9
83.4
107.7
90.5
111.5
102.2
82.1
115.3
88.5
106.0
89.5
114.7
106.2
79.1
125.8
85.5
104.7
77.2
122.0
111.2
59.0
131.4
90.2
106.6
81.2
122.6
116.9
64.8
131.9
87.4
108.2
79.8
123.4
118.5
62.9
130.8
85.7
108.6
83.4
129.0
122.9
66.5
130.8
93.7
110.0
1
11
12
101.3
103.7
101.1
99.9
104.0
99.5
100.1
105.3
99.6
99.7
101.8
99.5
98.6
100.9
98.4
95.6
101.9
95.1
96.5
103.0
95.9
96.3
102.2
95.8
101.6
102.9
101.4
101.7
104.7
101.4
104.0
104.8
104.0
Raw hides and skins (6/80 = 100) ..................................................................
Oilseeds and oleaginous fruit (9 /7 7 = 1 0 0 ) ...................................................
Crude rubber (including synthetic and reclaimed) (9/83 = 1 0 0 )................
W o o d ....................................................................................................................
Pulp and waste paper (6/83 — 100) ................................................................
Textile fib e rs ........................................................................................................
Crude fertilizers and m in e ra ls ..........................................................................
Metalliferous ores and metal scrap ................................................................
2
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
101.4
133.6
74.8
104.0
125.4
114.2
106.7
163.2
92.4
97.5
121.0
71.0
106.4
128.7
100.5
102.4
165.6
89.2
96.8
126.2
71.2
106.3
125.7
96.1
105.8
167.9
82.0
93.3
129.0
64.2
107.1
124.5
93.8
103.6
169.4
80.1
92.5
139.9
63.9
106.0
128.1
92.7
97.7
165.5
78.7
95.8
138.9
66.9
106.0
128.7
98.8
101.6
168.0
83.4
95.6
148.9
65.8
106.1
128.7
109.7
98.6
166.1
80.5
92.3
138.0
64.5
105.3
129.7
119.8
74.7
164.3
84.6
94.8
148.3
62.9
104.4
135.5
121.2
92.2
162.8
80.7
97.3
168.8
60.4
139.0
133.0
99.7
155.6
82.2
106.4
191.2
68.6
111.8
146.2
138.7
115.0
155.1
90.7
M ineral f u e l s ....................................................................................................................
3
99.7
100.1
99.2
97.6
96.6
91.9
86.7
85.7
84.7
85.6
84.4
Anim al and v e g e ta b le s oils, fats , and w a x e s ..................................................
4
42
147.9
156.7
142.0
152.9
144.5
164.8
114.5
128.8
101.4
108.7
90.8
95.4
84.4
95.3
76.5
80.8
86.8
87.Q
88.9
89.1
94.5
94.7
5
51
56
97.7
94.7
94.8
97.0
93.8
92.5
96.8
96.5
87.9
97.1
97.1
89.8
96.6
95.4
90.0
96.5
93.5
88.6
95.4
89.3
84.0
93.1
88.0
77.4
92.2
89.4
68.7
96.6
99.5
75.4
103.1
114.3
80.4
6
61
62
64
67
68
69
100.4
79.0
148.5
159.5
96.5
82.5
105.0
99.4
82.5
150.2
155.0
95.5
79.7
105.4
99.2
79.2
149.0
151.6
95.3
79.6
105.2
99.2
75.9
148.3
149.6
95.9
79.8
105.4
99.1
78.5
148.7
148.2
98.2
78.2
104.4
100.3
77.8
151.0
152.2
98.4
80.2
105.3
101.2
82.5
150.0
158.7
99.4
79.1
105.5
102.2
84.2
150.4
165.3
100.2
79.4
105.6
102.7
88.0
151.3
167.9
100.1
78.8
105.7
104.4
96.3
152.1
174.4
101.5
80.3
105.7
106.8
101.1
153.9
177.7
101.5
90.2
105.6
7
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
141.5
167.5
153.4
151.9
150.2
101.4
134.3
114.6
131.8
191.7
142.3
165.3
155.0
153.4
152.4
100.9
133.3
114.9
133.1
195.5
142.9
167.4
155.7
155.1
152.0
100.0
133.3
116.1
133.9
196.6
143.1
167.1
156.0
156.3
152.4
99.9
134.1
115.3
133.8
199.3
143.3
167.5
156.2
158.4
152.2
99.4
134.5
113.8
135.0
200.7
144.0
169.1
155.5
159.0
152.3
99.9
136.5
115.1
135.5
203.3
144.2
169.2
154.7
158.9
153.3
99.2
137.0
114.2
136.4
206.8
144.6
169.5
155.0
160.4
154.4
98.9
137.8
114.4
136.5
207.4
145.5
171.4
155.7
161.8
155.3
98.1
139.7
114.9
137.9
209.7
146.2
173.0
154.7
165.0
157.7
96.1
141.3
117.0
138.0
211.4
146.8
172.8
156.0
165.8
157.8
96.0
140.8
117.3
138.5
214.7
8
84
87
99.3
103.4
171.7
99.5
104.7
175.5
100.4
104.7
178.3
100.3
105.0
178.7
100.3
105.3
178.8
102.6
182.1
103.4
104.1
105.3
107.3
183.8
183.8
104.3
110.0
184.8
186.4
188.5
88
130.3
128.0
129.1
127.5
128.5
131.6
132.9
132.7
132.0
133.4
133.1
Miscellaneous manufactured articles, n.e.s....................................................
89
94.1
92.4
93.1
93.1
92.4
95.6
95.6
97.6
97.7
98.1
102.1
G old, n o n -m o n e ta ry ( 6 / 8 3 = 1 0 0 ) ...........................................................................
971
79.5
69.1
75.4
77.4
77.5
81.8
82.2
97.5
94.5
98.2
108.4
A L L C O M M O D IT IE S ( 9 /8 3 - 1 0 0 ) .....................................................................
Foo d ( 3 /8 3 - 1 0 0 ) .................................................................................................
Meat ( 3 /8 3 - 1 0 0 ) ...............................................................................................
Fish ( 3 /8 3 - 1 0 0 ) ................................................................................................
Grain and grain preparations (3 /8 0 —100) ...................................................
Vegetables and fruit (3/83 —100) ...................................................................
Feedstuffs for animals ( 3 /8 3 - 1 0 0 ) ................................................................
Misc. food products (3/83 —1 0 0 )....................................................................
B e v e ra g e s and to b a c c o (6/83 —1 0 0 ).............................................................
Beverages (9/83 — 1 0 0 )....................................................................................
Tobacco and tobacco products (6 /8 3 —1 0 0 ) ...............................................
C ru d e m aterials ( 6 /8 3 - 1 0 0 ) ............................................................................
Fixed vegetable oils and fats (6/83 —100) ...................................................
C hem ica ls (3/83 —100) ......................................................................................
Organic chemicals (1 2 /8 3 —100) ....................................................................
Fertilizers, manufactured ( 3 /8 3 - 1 0 0 ) ............................................................
In te rm e d ia te m an u fa c tu re d p ro d u c ts (9 /8 1 —1 0 0 )....................................
Leather and furskins ( 9 /7 9 - 1 0 0 ) ...................................................................
Rubber manufactures .......................................................................................
Paper and paperboard products (6/78 = 1 0 0 )..............................................
Iron and steel (3/82 = 100) ..............................................................................
Nonferrous metals (9/81 -1 0 0 ) ......................................................................
Metal manufactures, n.e.s. (3/82 = 100) ........................................................
M achinery and tra n s p o rt equ ip m en t, exc luding m ilitary
and c om m ercial a irc ra ft (1 2 /7 8 -1 0 0 ) ........................................................
Power generating machinery and equipment (1 2 /7 8 -1 0 0 ) .....................
Machinery specialized for particular industries (9/78 = 100) ......................
Metalworking machinery (6 /7 8 —100) ............................................................
General industrial machines and parts n.e.s. 9 / 7 8 - 1 0 0 ) ..........................
Office machines and automatic data processing equipment .....................
Telecommunications, sound recording and reproducing e qu ipm ent........
Electrical machinery and equipm ent...............................................................
Road vehicles and parts (3/80 —1 0 0 )............................................................
Other transport equipment, excl. military and commercial aviation ........
O th e r m an u fa c tu re d articles ...................................................................................
Apparel (9/83 —100) .........................................................................................
Professional, scientific, and controlling instruments and apparatus.........
Photographic apparatus and supplies, optical goods, watches and
clocks ( 1 2 / 7 7 - 1 0 0 ) ........................................................................................
-
Data not available.
Digitized for114
FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
-
-
-
-
37.
U.S. import price indexes by Standard International Trade Classification
(June 1977=100, unless otherwise indicated)
C a te g o ry
1974
SITC
M e a t.....................................................................................................................
Dairy products and eggs (6/81 =10 0) ..........................................................
F is h .......................................................................................................................
Bakery goods, pasta products, grain and grain preparations
(9 /7 7 -1 0 0 ) .......................................................................................................
Fruits and vegetables .......................................................................................
Sugar, sugar preparations, and honey (3 /8 2 —1 0 0 )....................................
Coffee, tea, c o c o a .............................................................................................
B e v e ra g e s an d t o b a c c o ............................................................................................
Beverages ...........................................................................................................
C ru d e m a t e r ia ls ..............................................................................................................
Crude rubber (inc. synthetic & reclaimed) (3 /8 4 —1 0 0 )..............................
Wood ( 9 /8 1 -1 0 0 ) ............................................................................................
Pulp and waste paper (1 2 /8 1 —1 0 0 )..............................................................
Crude fertilizers and crude minerals (1 2 /8 3 -1 0 0 ) .....................................
Metalliferous ores and metal scrap (3 /8 4 —1 0 0 ).........................................
Crude vegetable and animal materials, n.e.s.................................................
Fuels an d re la te d p ro d u c ts (6 /8 2 —1 0 0 )......................................................
Petroleum and petroleum products (6 /8 2 —100) ..........................................
Fats an d oils ( 9 /8 3 - 1 0 0 ) .................................................................................
Vegetable oils (9 /8 3 —1 0 0 )..............................................................................
C h em ica ls ( 9 /8 2 - 1 0 0 ) ......................................................................................
Medicinal and pharmaceutical products (3 /8 4 —100) .................................
Manufactured fertilizers (3 /8 4 —1 0 0 )..............................................................
Chemical materials and products, n.e.s. (9 /8 4 —1 0 0 ).................................
In te rm e d ia te m a n u fa c tu re d p ro d u c ts (1 2 /7 7 —100) .................................
Leather and furskins .........................................................................................
Rubber manufactures, n.e.s..............................................................................
Cork and wood manufactures .........................................................................
Paper and paperboard products .....................................................................
T extiles.................................................................................................................
Nonmetallic mineral manufactures, n.e.s........................................................
Iron and steel (9 /7 8 = 1 0 0 ) ..............................................................................
Nonferrous metals (1 2/81= 100 ) ....................................................................
Metal manufactures, n.e.s..................................................................................
M ach in ery and tra n s p o rt e q u ip m en t ( 6 / 8 1 - 1 0 0 ) ........................................
Machinery specialized for particular industries ( 9 /7 8 - 1 0 0 ) ......................
Metalworking machinery (3 /8 0 —100) ............................................................
General industrial machinery and parts, n.e.s. (6/81 — 100) ......................
Office machines and automatic data processing equipment
( 3 /8 0 - 1 0 0 ) ......................................................................................................
Telecommunications, sound recording and reproducing apparatus
( 3 /8 0 - 1 0 0 ) ......................................................................................................
Electrical machinery and equipment (12/81 — 1 0 0 ).....................................
Road vehicles and parts (6 /8 1 —1 0 0 )...........................................................
M lsc. m a n u fa c tu re d artic le s (3 /8 0 —1 0 0 ).....................................................
Plumbing, heating, and lighting fixtures (6 /8 0 —100) ..................................
Furniture and parts (6/80 —100) .....................................................................
Clothing ( 9 /7 7 -1 0 0 ) ........................................................................................
F oo tw ear..............................................................................................................
Professional, scientific, and controlling instruments and
apparatus (1 2 /7 9 —1 0 0 )..................................................................................
Photographic apparatus and supplies, optical goods, watches, and
clocks ( 3 /8 0 - 1 0 0 ) ..........................................................................................
Misc. manufactured articles, n.e.s. (6/82 —1 0 0 )..........................................
G old , n o n -m o n e ta ry ( 6 / 8 2 - 1 0 0 ) ...........................................................................
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Sept.
Dec.
Mar.
June
Sept.
Dec.
Mar.
June
93.0
92.9
94.2
88.5
83.2
83.9
86.0
91.6
95.3
0
01
02
03
96.8
118.2
97.9
129.4
94.9
120.6
99.1
129.7
102.8
131.2
100.5
132.7
113.4
122.7
106.7
139.3
104.7
118.5
107.1
144.8
109.1
126.9
109.4
149.6
105.3
134.4
111.5
157.1
100.2
132.1
116.8
161.6
102.0
135.9
119.6
167.4
04
05
06
07
132.3
129.4
122.6
56.0
136.3
120.2
123.1
54.4
141.9
131.3
111.9
64.6
146.9
119.4
124.6
85.9
149.2
119.4
121.6
69.2
154.0
127.1
123.9
71.8
155.3
125.5
124.3
61.0
161.0
120.5
126.0
50.9
165.2
125.4
128.6
49.3
1
11
157.1
154.3
158.0
156.0
162.1
159.1
163.2
161.8
165.5
163.9
165.8
165.5
168.0
168.2
170.8
171.5
174.1
174.6
2
23
24
25
27
28
29
93.6
76.4
106.9
80.4
101.7
87.6
104.9
91.5
68.9
101.6
76.8
102.7
89.5
102.5
91.2
73.2
99.4
75.8
102.1
90.1
102.5
94.2
78.8
104.3
74.9
101.5
94.5
103.6
95.3
75.5
106.3
79.9
100.0
95.6
104.4
98.1
76.9
109.4
86.0
100.4
98.2
104.8
98.5
78.5
107.2
92.8
100.2
95.4
104.7
103.1
79.1
115.0
100.5
99.5
98.0
113.4
105.6
84.5
112.0
104.6
98.4
100.0
120.3
3
33
80.9
81.6
79.8
80.3
79.1
80.1
55.3
54.7
37.5
36.1
33.6
32.1
38.4
37.9
49.7
49.9
54.8
55.2
4
42
76.7
75.9
57.6
56.2
50.6
48.9
41.4
39.3
39.3
37.4
35.5
33.5
51.6
50.0
50.8
49.2
54.5
52.6
5
54
56
59
94.9
95.1
82.0
95.6
94.5
95.3
80.8
96.9
94.2
96.7
78.5
97.8
94.6
102.9
79.2
99.9
93.3
104.9
79.7
100.3
93.4
110.0
77.4
101.0
93.2
110.1
79.7
102.8
95.9
116.2
81.8
104.3
98.8
120.3
83.6
105.0
6
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
132.4
133.3
138.6
121.2
157.2
127.5
151.7
120.1
82.3
117.8
133.6
137.0
137.3
123.4
157.8
126.5
157.6
119.1
83.7
119.5
133.4
141.3
138.1
124.0
156.5
128.1
162.2
118.3
80.4
121.6
134.0
141.6
136.5
130.8
157.1
131.2
164.2
117.3
79.4
124.4
135.6
143.0
137.7
134.3
157.1
132.9
169.6
118.1
78.9
127.8
138.8
147.4
138.1
137.4
157.5
135.1
178.2
119.0
83.5
129.1
139.4
143.3
138.1
142.7
164.8
135.3
180.2
118.5
81.6
129.1
142.2
149.5
140.8
144.3
165.2
138.8
183.1
122.3
82.4
133.4
147.4
156.6
140.5
151.6
165.0
140.4
190.3
127.1
90.9
134.5
7
72
73
74
102.6
97.0
90.5
91.1
103.5
101.4
94.2
94.3
107.2
104.9
98.1
98.0
111.5
112.1
105.0
103.8
115.3
115.4
107.7
109.0
118.1
120.1
110.7
112.8
120.2
121.0
115.7
113.9
123.9
127.5
122.4
120.5
126.1
129.5
126.1
123.0
75
89.4
90.3
93.7
96.9
101.3
102.5
102.4
103.2
106.4
76
77
78
88.8
83.9
112.1
88.3
81.4
112.7
88.6
83.1
117.8
89.4
84.5
123.4
91.6
87.5
127.1
93.7
89.5
129.8
93.9
91.7
133.2
94.6
93.6
137.0
95.5
94.8
139.2
8
81
82
84
85
98.0
114.1
136.7
133.9
136.7
99.6
117.8
142.1
134.5
142.1
100.8
115.0
142.7
134.5
142.7
103.3
120.1
147.0
133.4
147.0
104.8
123.5
142.2
135.3
142.2
109.5
125.5
145.8
137.8
145.8
109.6
125.5
146.9
139.1
146.9
114.3
125.5
148.9
145.5
148.9
118.1
130.6
153.3
150.9
153.3
87
92.3
98.8
102.4
106.4
112.5
118.3
118.0
125.6
129.5
88
89
89.5
95.2
91.1
96.4
94.5
97.9
99.3
102.1
103.2
103.4
106.9
112.3
107.6
111.0
111.8
116.9
114.4
121.8
971
98.3
101.1
101.0
106.7
107.3
126.9
123.3
128.0
141.5
A L L C O M M O D IT IE S ( 9 /8 2 - 1 0 0 ) .....................................................................
Fo o d ( 9 /7 7 - 1 0 0 ) ................................................................................................
June
1987
1986
1985
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
38.
September 1987 •
Current Labor Statistics:
Price Data
U.S. export price indexes by end-use category
(September 1983 = 100 unless otherwise indicated)
C a te g o ry
Percentage
of 1980
trade
value
16.294
30.696
21.327
9.368
30.186
7.483
7.467
3.965
3.501
39.
June
Sept.
80.9
97.2
99.5
91.6
106.6
108.0
101.1
99.2
103.0
1987
1986
1985
Mar.
Dec.
76.2
96.5
98.7
91.1
106.6
108.1
101.9
100.4
103.3
77.5
95.9
97.9
91.0
106.6
109.2
101.4
99.5
103.3
June
75.5
96.0
97.5
92.5
107.4
109.5
103.7
101.8
105.5
Sept.
74.7
94.9
96.1
91.9
107.5
110.4
104.5
101.8
107.2
Mar.
Dec.
66.0
93.3
93.7
92.5
107.7
110.8
104.5
102.1
106.9
68.4
94.8
95.4
93.2
108.3
111.8
105.7
102.7
108.5
June
67.1
98.2
99.5
95.1
108.9
111.9
106.9
103.9
109.8
71.3
103.1
104.7
99.2
109.5
112.1
107.1
103.6
110.5
U.S. import price indexes by end-use category
(December 1982=100)
C a te g o ry
Foods, feeds, and beverages .......................................................
Petroleum and petroleum products, excl. natural g a s ..................
Raw materials, excluding petroleum .............................................
Raw materials, nondurable .........................................................
Raw materials, durable................................................................
Capital goods.................................................................................
Automotive vehicles, parts and engines.......................................
Consumer goods............................................................................
Durable ........................................................................................
Nondurable..................................................................................
40.
Percentage
of 1980
trade
value
7.477
31.108
19.205
9.391
9.814
13.164
11.750
14.250
5.507
8.743
June
100.4
82.1
95.8
93.9
97.8
96.3
105.9
99.4
97.0
102.5
Sept.
99.0
80.9
95.4
93.5
97.4
97.6
106.4
101.0
98.9
103.9
1987
1986
1985
Mar.
Dec.
106.0
80.5
93.9
91.8
96.2
100.0
111.4
102.4
100.7
104.7
June
115.8
55.4
94.5
91.1
98.1
102.8
115.6
104.5
103.4
106.0
108.2
36.8
94.0
89.7
98.7
106.7
119.0
106.5
106.5
106.6
Sept.
112.3
32.6
95.3
89.5
101.4
109.4
121.0
110.1
111.2
108.6
Mar.
Dec.
109.2
38.3
94.9
89.7
100.3
110.7
123.9
110.6
111.6
109.2
104.7
50.5
96.9
91.8
102.3
115.3
126.2
114.3
114.8
113.7
U.S. export price indexes by Standard Industrial Classification 1
1987
1986
1985
In d u stry g roup
June
Manufacturing:
Food and kindred products (6/83—100) ..........................
Lumber and wood products, except furniture
(6 /8 3 -1 0 0 ).....................................................................
Furniture and fixtures (9/83 —100) ....................................
Paper and allied products (3/81—100).............................
Chemicals and allied products (1 2 /8 4 -1 0 0 )....................
Petroleum and coal products (12/83—1 00).....................
Primary metal products (3/82—100) .................................
Machinery, except electrical (9/78—100).........................
Electrical machinery (12/80—100) ....................................
Transportation equipment (12/78—100)...........................
Scientific instruments; optical goods; clocks
(6 /7 7 -1 0 0 ).....................................................................
1 SIC - based classification.
116
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Sept.
Dec.
Mar.
June
Sept.
Dec.
Mar.
June
99.5
96.7
98.1
97.0
95.0
95.2
97.6
99.0
104.1
99.5
106.5
94.7
99.6
102.7
87.5
140.5
112.4
161.8
98.3
107.1
93.2
99.7
102.0
88.1
140.6
111.9
162.6
101.2
108.4
92.1
99.2
99.1
87.9
140.5
111.2
164.1
101.5
109.2
95.7
98.9
93.5
89.8
140.6
112.6
165.1
101.2
109.7
101.5
98.3
83.1
89.8
140.3
112.3
167.1
102.1
110.1
106.1
96.2
83.1
90.7
140.5
112.6
167.4
105.7
110.4
108.7
95.9
82.2
89.9
140.7
113.6
169.4
109.8
113.4
113.7
100.3
83.5
91.7
141.0
115.2
170.0
113.0
114.0
116.7
106.5
86.8
97.4
141.4
115.3
171.2
156.6
156.2
156.7
159.7
161.2
161.5
162.3
163.3
164.6
June
106.6
55.8
100.5
94.5
106.8
117.8
128.0
117.5
117.5
117.6
41.
U.S. import price indexes by Standard Industrial Classification 1
1985
1986
1987
In d u stry group
June
Manufacturing:
Food and kindred products (6/77=100) .................................
Textile mill products (9 /8 2 =10 0 )................................
Apparel and related products (6 /7 7 = 10 0 )..............................
Lumber and wood products, except furniture
(6/77=100) .......................................................
Furniture and fixtures (6 /80=100)...................................
Paper and allied products (6 /7 7 = 1 0 0 ).........................
Chemicals and allied products (9/82=100) ......................
Rubber and miscellaneous plastic products
(1 2/8 0=1 0 0 )..........................................................
Leather and leather products .....................................
Primary metal products (6/81=100) ...........................
Fabricated metal products (12/84=100).....................
Machinery, except electrical (3/80=100) ....................
Electrical machinery (9/84 = 100).....................
Transportation equipment (6/81=100) ...........................
Scientific instruments; optical goods; clocks
(1 2/7 9=1 0 0 )........................................................
Miscellaneous manufactured commodities
(9 /8 2 = 1 0 0 )............................................................
Sept.
Dec.
Mar.
June
Sept.
Dec.
Mar.
June
115.0
101.0
133.0
114.2
100.4
133.9
115.1
101.8
134.4
117.7
104.7
133.4
115.6
106.4
135.1
118.0
107.1
137.8
122.4
108.0
139.3
122.7
111.7
146.0
125.9
113.6
150.9
120.6
96.1
139.8
93.9
117.5
97.7
138.7
93.3
115.8
98.2
137.4
95.8
122.1
101.2
137.6
98.6
124.8
103.5
139.4
102.1
127.9
105.4
142.2
103.8
127.9
105.6
150.3
102.4
134.5
109.6
154.0
104.7
135.0
110.2
155.7
105.7
96.7
138.9
84.1
99.1
93.4
95.8
114.2
96.6
142.3
84.3
101.0
96.6
94.5
114.8
97.5
144.0
82.6
102.6
100.0
95.8
119.6
100.9
145.8
82.0
104.9
105.5
97.0
123.9
100.6
144.6
82.4
108.5
109.0
100.2
128.0
101.9
147.7
84.9
110.3
112.5
102.6
130.4
102.1
148.7
84.0
111.1
114.2
104.0
133.2
104.4
151.8
85.4
115.5
119.1
105.7
136.5
105.8
156.2
91.3
116.2
121.9
106.9
138.4
91.7
94.6
98.8
103.9
109.1
113.7
113.7
119.1
122.1
95.1
96.6
98.7
99.9
101.7
106.9
108.1
110.3
113.8
1 SIC - based classification.
42.
Indexes of productivity, hourly compensation, and unit costs, quarterly data seasonally adjusted
(1977 = 100)
Quarterly Indexes
Item
1984
IV
1985
I
II
1986
III
IV
I
II
1987
III
IV
I
II
Business:
Output per hour of all persons.............................
Compensation per hour........................................
Real compensation per hour................................
Unit labor costs ....................................................
Unit nonlabor payments.......................................
Implicit price deflator ............................................
105.9
170.3
98.1
160.8
157.9
159.8
106.5
172.4
98.5
161.9
158.7
160.8
107.2
174.6
98.6
162.8
160.4
162.0
108.2
177.0
99.4
163.6
161.8
163.0
107.9
179.3
99.7
166.1
160.2
164.0
109.5
180.7
100.1
165.0
163.1
164.3
109.7
182.2
101.3
166.2
163.9
165.4
109.6
183.6
101.4
167.5
165.7
166.9
109.6
185.2
101.6
169.0
162.4
166.7
109.7
185.8
100.7
169.4
166.0
168.2
110.0
187.3
100.3
170.2
168.8
169.7
104.8
170.2
98.0
162.4
158.5
161.0
105.2
172.2
98.4
163.6
159.5
162.2
105.7
174.1
98.3
164.7
161.5
163.6
106.4
176.2
98.9
165.7
163.4
164.9
105.9
178.3
99.2
168.3
160.8
165.7
107.7
180.0
99.7
167.2
164.7
166.4
107.7
181.3
100.8
168.4
165.2
167.3
107.5
182.6
100.9
169.8
167.0
168.8
107.5
184.4
101.2
171.5
163.9
168.8
107.6
184.9
100.2
171.8
167.4
170.3
108.0
186.2
99.7
172.5
168.7
171.1
106.4
168.1
96.8
162.8
158.0
176.8
134.2
161.9
159.4
107.0
169.9
97.0
163.6
158.9
177.5
132.0
161.6
159.8
107.7
171.8
97.0
164.3
159.5
178.7
132.2
162.5
160.5
109.2
173.8
97.6
163.7
159.1
177.5
142.5
165.2
161.2
108.9
175.7
97.7
166.0
161.4
179.4
128.7
161.6
161.5
109.8
177.2
98.2
166.3
161.5
180.7
129.7
162.8
161.9
109.7
178.4
99.1
167.2
162.6
180.6
129.5
162.7
162.7
109.9
179.5
99.2
168.5
163.2
184.2
130.6
165.4
164.0
110.5
181.0
99.3
168.7
163.8
183.2
127.7
163.7
163.8
109.7
180.8
98.0
169.7
164.8
184.1
132.2
165.9
165.2
120.0
171.1
98.5
142.5
121.5
173.3
99.0
142.7
124.0
176.1
99.5
142.0
125.2
178.0
99.9
142.1
126.0
180.2
100.2
143.0
127.6
181.0
100.3
141.9
128.3
182.1
101.2
142.0
129.4
183.1
101.2
141.5
129.9
184.3
101.2
141.9
130.8
183.9
99.6
140.6
N o nfa rm business:
Output per hour of all persons.............................
Compensation per hour........................................
Real compensation per hour................................
Unit labor costs ....................................................
Unit nonlabor payments .......................................
Implicit price deflator ............................................
N o nfinan cial corpo ra tions:
Output per hour of all employees........................
Compensation per hour........................................
Real compensation per hour................................
Total unit costs.....................................................
Unit labor costs .................................................
Unit nonlabor costs............................................
Unit profits.............................................................
Unit nonlabor payments .......................................
Implicit price deflator ............................................
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
-
M anufacturing:
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Output per hour of all persons.............................
Compensation per hour........................................
Real compensation per hour................................
Unit labor costs ....................................................
131.9
184.7
98.9
140.1
- Data not available.
117
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
September 1987 •
Current Labor Statistics:
Productivity Data
43. Annual indexes of multifactor productivity and related measures, selected years
(1977 = 100)
Item
1960
1970
1973
1975
1977
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
P riv a te business
Productivity:
Output per hour of all persons..........................
Output per unit of capital services....................
Multifactor productivity.......................................
Output...................................................................
Inputs:
Hours of all persons...........................................
Capital services .................................................
Combined units of labor and capital input........
Capital per hour of all persons.............................
67.3
102.4
78.2
55.3
88.4
102.0
92.9
80.2
95.9
105.3
99.1
93.0
95.7
93.8
95.0
89.3
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
99.5
99.8
99.7
107.9
99.2
94.2
97.4
106.6
100.6
92.4
97.7
108.9
100.3
86.6
95.2
105.4
103.0
88.3
97.6
109.9
105.4
92.4
100.6
118.9
106.5
91.5
101.0
122.8
82.2
54.0
70.7
65.7
90.8
78.7
86.3
86.7
96.9
88.3
93.8
91.1
93.2
95.1
93.9
102.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
108.4
108.0
108.2
99.7
107.5
113.1
109.4
105.3
108.2
117.8
111.5
108.8
105.2
121.7
110.7
115.7
106.7
124.4
112.6
116.7
112.8
128.7
118.1
114.1
115.3
134.1
121.6
116.3
70.7
103.7
80.9
54.4
89.2
102.8
93.7
79.9
96.4
106.0
99.6
92.9
96.0
93.8
95.3
88.9
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
99.2
99.0
99.1
107.9
98.7
93.4
96.9
106.6
99.6
91.1
96.7
108.4
99.1
85.1
94.1
104.8
102.4
87.3
97.0
110.0
104.3
90.9
99.6
118.9
104.8
89.7
99.4
122.5
77.0
52.5
67.3
68.2
89.6
77.7
85.3
86.8
96.3
87.6
93.3
91.0
92.6
94.8
93.4
102.3
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
108.8
109.0
108.9
100.1
108.0
114.1
110.0
105.6
108.8
119.0
112.2
109.4
105.7
123.2
111.4
116.5
107.4
126.1
113.5
117.4
114.0
130.8
119.4
114.7
116.9
136.6
123.3
116.8
62.2
102.5
71.9
52.5
80.8
98.6
85.2
78.6
93.4
111.4
97.9
96.3
92.9
90.1
92.0
84.9
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
101.4
99.7
101.0
108.1
101.4
91.2
98.7
103.2
103.6
89.2
99.8
104.8
105.9
81.8
99.2
98.4
112.0
86.9
105.1
104.7
116.6
94.4
110.7
116.0
121.7
96.0
114.7
120.4
84.4
51.2
73.0
60.7
97.3
79.7
92.2
82.0
103.1
86.4
98.4
83.8
91.4
94.2
92.2
103.1
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
106.5
108.4
107.0
101.7
101.7
113.1
104.5
111.2
101.1
117.5
105.0
116.2
92.9
120.3
99.2
129.4
93.5
120.6
99.7
129.0
99.5
122.9
104.8
123.6
98.9
125.4
105.0
126.7
P rivate n o n farm business
Productivity:
Output per hour of all persons..........................
Output per unit of capital services.....................
Multifactor productivity.......................................
Output...................................................................
Inputs:
Hours of all persons...........................................
Capital services .................................................
Combined units of labor and capital input........
Capital per hour of all persons.............................
M an u factu rin g
Productivity:
Output per hour of all persons..........................
Output per unit of capital services....................
Multifactor productivity.......................................
Output...................................................................
Inputs:
Hours of all persons...........................................
Capital services .................................................
Combined units of labor and capital inputs......
Capital per hour of all persons.............................
118
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
44.
Annual indexes of productivity, hourly compensation, unit costs, and prices, selected years
(1977 = 100)
1960
Item
1975
1973
1970
1977
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
Business:
Output per hour of ail persons.............................
Compensation per hour........................................
Real compensation per hour................................
Unit labor costs....................................................
Unit nonlabor payments.......................................
Implicit price deflator ............................................
67.6
33.6
68.9
49.7
46.4
48.5
88.4
57.8
90.2
65.4
59.4
63.2
95.9
70.9
96.7
73.9
72.5
73.4
95.7
85.2
95.9
89.0
88.2
88.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
99.6
119.1
99.4
119.5
112.5
117.0
99.3
131.5
96.7
132.5
118.7
127.6
100.7
143.7
95.7
142.7
134.6
139.8
100.3
154.9
97.3
154.5
136.6
148.1
103.0
161.5
98.2
156.7
146.4
153.0
105.6
168.0
98.0
159.1
156.5
158.2
107.5
175.9
99.1
163.6
160.3
162.4
109.5
182.8
101.0
166.9
163.8
165.8
71.0
35.3
72.3
49.7
46.3
48.5
89.3
58.2
90.8
65.2
60.0
63.4
96.4
71.2
97.1
73.9
69.3
72.3
96.0
85.6
96.4
89.2
86.7
88.3
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
99.3
118.9
99.2
119.7
110.5
116.5
98.8
131.3
96.6
132.9
118.5
127.8
99.8
143.6
95.7
144.0
133.5
140.3
99.2
154.8
97.2
156.0
136.5
149.2
102.5
161.5
98.2
157.6
148.3
154.3
104.6
167.8
97.9
160.4
156.4
159.0
105.8
175.2
98.7
165.6
161.3
164.1
107.5
182.0
100.6
169.3
165.2
167.8
73.4
36.9
75.5
49.4
50.2
47.0
59.8
51.5
50.7
91.1
59.2
92.4
64.8
65.0
64.2
52.3
60.1
63.3
97.5
71.6
97.6
72.7
73.4
70.7
65.6
68.9
71.9
96.7
85.9
96.7
90.3
88.8
94.9
77.0
88.6
88.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
99.8
118.7
99.1
118.2
119.0
115.8
94.5
108.4
115.4
99.1
131.1
96.4
133.4
132.3
136.7
85.2
118.6
127.6
99.6
143.3
95.5
147.7
143.8
159.1
98.1
137.8
141.7
100.4
154.3
96.9
159.5
153.8
176.4
78.5
142.1
149.8
103.5
159.9
97.3
159.5
154.5
174.3
110.9
152.1
153.7
106.0
165.8
96.7
160.8
156.5
173.6
136.5
160.6
157.9
108.2
172.8
97.4
164.4
159.7
178.3
133.9
162.7
160.7
109.9
178.9
98.9
167.7
162.8
182.2
129.3
163.7
163.1
62.2
36.5
74.8
58.7
60.0
59.1
80.8
57.4
89.5
71.0
64.1
69.0
93.4
68.8
93.8
73.7
70.7
72.8
92.9
85.1
95.9
91.7
87.5
90.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
101.4
118.6
99.1
117.0
98.9
111.7
101.4
132.4
97.4
130.6
97.8
121.0
103.6
145.2
96.7
140.1
111.8
131.8
105.9
157.5
98.9
148.7
114.0
138.6
112.0
162.4
98.8
145.0
128.5
140.2
118.1
168.0
98.0
142.2
138.6
141.2
124.2
176.9
99.6
142.4
134.7
140.2
128.8
182.7
100.9
141.8
137.9
140.7
N o n fa rm business:
Output per hour of all persons.............................
Compensation per hour........................................
Real compensation per hour................................
Unit labor costs....................................................
Unit nonlabor payments .......................................
Implicit price deflator ............................................
N o n fln an cial c o rpo ra tions:
Output per hour of all employees........................
Compensation per hour........................................
Real compensation per hour................................
Total unit costs.....................................................
Unit labor costs .................................................
Unit nonlabor costs............................................
Unit profits.............................................................
Unit nonlabor payments.......................................
Implicit price deflator ............................................
M anufacturin g:
Output per hour of all persons.............................
Compensation per hour........................................
Real compensation per hour................................
Unit labor costs....................................................
Unit nonlabor payments .......................................
Implicit price deflator ............................................
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
45. Unemployment rates, approximating U.S. concepts, in nine countries, quarterly data
seasonally adjusted
Annual average
1987
1986
1985
Country
1985
1986
IV
II
I
IV
III
II
I
T o ta l lab o r fo rc e basis
United States....................................
Canada ..............................................
Australia ............................................
Japan .................................................
7.1
10.4
8.2
2.6
6.9
9.5
8.0
2.8
7.0
10.1
7.8
2.8
7.0
9.7
7.9
2.7
7.0
9.5
7.7
2.8
6.8
9.6
8.2
2.9
6.8
9.4
8.3
2.9
6.6
9.6
8.3
2.9
France ...............................................
Germany............................................
Italy ', 2 ..............................................
Sweden .............................................
United Kingdom.................................
10.2
7.7
5.9
2.8
11.2
10.4
7.4
6.2
2.6
11.1
10.2
7.7
6.1
2.7
11.0
10.2
7.6
6.1
2.7
11.1
10.4
7.5
6.2
2.6
11.2
10.6
7.4
5.9
2.6
11.1
10.6
7.2
6.5
2.6
10.9
11.0
7.3
6.6
2.0
10.6
7.2
10.5
8.3
2.6
7.0
9.6
8.1
2.8
7.1
10.1
7.9
2.8
7.1
9.7
8.0
2.7
7.1
9.6
7.8
2.8
6.9
9.7
8.3
2.9
6.9
9.4
8.4
2.9
6.7
9.6
8.3
2.9
10.7
7.6
6.3
2.7
11.1
10.4
7.8
6.2
2.7
11.1
10.5
7.8
6.2
2.8
11.2
10.7
7.7
6.3
2.6
11.2
10.8
7.5
6.0
2.6
11.2
10.8
7.4
6.6
2.6
10.9
11.2
7.4
6.7
2.0
10.7
6.1
9.0
8.1
“
11.0
7.4
“
1.9
10.2
Civilian lab o r fo rc e basis
United States....................................
Canada ..............................................
Australia ............................................
Japan .................................................
France ...............................................
Germany............................................
Italy1, 2 ...............................................
Sweden .............................................
United Kingdom.................................
10.4
7.9
6.0
2.8
11.2
1 Quarterly rates are for the first month of the quarter.
2 Major changes in the Italian labor force survey, Intro
duced in 1977, resulted in a large increase in persons enu
merated as unemployed. However, many persons reported
that they had not actively sought work in the past 30 days,
and they have been provisionally excluded for comparability
with U.S. concepts. Inclusion of such persons would about
6.2
9.1
8.2
“
11.3
7.5
1.9
10.3
double the Italian unemployment rate shown.
- Data not available.
NOTE: Quarterly figures for France, Germany, and the
United Kingdom are calculated by applying annual adjust
ment factors to current published data and therefore should
be viewed as less precise indicators of unemployment under
U.S. concepts than the annual figures.
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
September 1987 •
Current Labor Statistics:
International Comparisons Data
46. Annual data: Employment status of the civilian working-age population, approximating U.S. concepts,
10 countries
(Numbers in thousands)
Employment status and country
1984
1983
108,670
11,904
6,810
56,320
22,930
26,650
21,320
5,520
4,327
26,590
110,204
11,958
6,910
56,980
23,160
26,710
21,410
5,570
4,350
26,740
111,550
12,183
6,997
58,110
23,130
26,740
21,590
5,600
4,369
26,790
113,544
12,399
7,133
58,480
23,290
26,890
21,670
5,620
4,385
27,180
63.8
64.1
62.1
62.6
57.2
53.2
48.2
50.2
66.9
62.5
63.9
64.8
61.9
62.6
57.1
52.9
48.3
51.4
66.8
62.2
64.0
64.1
61.7
62.7
57.1
52.7
47.7
51.2
66.8
62.3
64.0
64.4
61.4
63.1
56.6
52.5
47.5
50.9
66.7
62.1
64.4
64.8
61.5
62.7
56.6
52.6
47.3
50.5
66.6
62.6
64.8
65.2
61.8
62.3
56.2
52.8
47.2
50.7
66.9
62.7
65.3
65.7
63.0
62.1
56.2
53.2
47.5
98,824
10,395
6,111
54,040
21,300
25,470
19,930
4,830
4,174
24,940
99,303
10,708
6,284
54,600
21,330
25,750
20,200
4,980
4,226
24,670
100,397
11,006
6,416
55,060
21,200
25,560
20,280
5,010
4,219
23,800
99,526
10,644
6,415
55,620
21,240
25,130
20,250
4,980
4,213
23,710
100,834
10,734
6,300
56,550
21,170
24,750
20,320
4,890
4,218
23,600
105,005
11,000
6,490
56,870
20,980
24,800
20,390
4,930
4,249
24,000
107,150
11,311
6,670
57,260
20,900
24,960
20,490
5,110
4,293
24,300
109,597
11,634
6,952
57,740
20,970
25,210
20,610
59.3
57.5
58.0
61.3
54.4
51.5
45.9
46.3
64.6
58.8
59.9
58.7
57.8
61.4
54.0
51.7
45.9
46.4
65.3
59.2
59.2
59.3
58.3
61.3
53.5
51.7
46.1
47.0
65.6
58.1
59.0
59.9
58.4
61.2
52.8
50.8
45.9
46.6
65.1
55.7
57.8
57.0
57.3
61.2
52.3
49.6
45.2
45.8
64.7
55.3
57.9
56.7
55.3
61.4
51.8
48.6
44.7
44.5
64.4
54.7
59.5
57.4
56.0
61.0
51.0
48.5
44.5
44.3
64.5
55.3
60.1
58.4
56.6
60.6
50.4
48.7
44.4
45.7
65.0
55.7
60.7
59.4
57.9
60.4
50.2
49.1
44.6
6,991
849
358
1,100
1,120
900
840
250
75
1,660
6,202
908
405
1,240
1,210
870
850
260
94
1,650
6,137
836
408
1,170
1,370
780
920
270
88
1,420
7,637
865
409
1,140
1,470
770
920
330
86
1,850
8,273
898
394
1,260
1,730
1,090
1,040
510
108
2,790
10,678
1,314
495
1,360
1,920
1,580
1,160
590
137
3,030
10,717
1,448
697
1,560
1,960
1,990
1,270
710
151
3,190
8,539
1,399
642
1,610
2,310
2,090
1,280
690
136
3,180
8,312
1,328
602
1,560
2,440
2,130
1,310
600
125
3,070
8,237
1,236
610
1,670
2,510
2,070
1,380
7.1
8.1
5.6
2.0
5.0
3.5
4.1
5.1
1.8
6.4
6.1
8.3
6.3
2.3
5.4
3.3
4.1
5.2
2.2
6.3
5.8
7.4
6.3
2.1
6.0
3.0
4.4
5.3
2.1
5.4
7.1
7.5
6.1
2.0
6.4
2.9
4.4
6.2
2.0
7.0
7.6
7.5
5.8
2.2
7.5
4.1
4.9
9.2
2.5
10.5
9.7
11.0
7.2
2.4
8.3
5.9
5.4
10.6
3.1
11.3
9.6
11.9
10.0
2.7
8.5
7.4
5.9
12.7
3.5
11.9
7.5
11.3
9.0
2.8
9.9
7.8
5.9
12.3
3.1
11.7
7.2
10.5
8.3
2.6
10.4
7.9
6.0
10.5
2.8
11.2
1978
1979
1980
99,009
10,500
6,358
53,820
22,300
25,870
20,510
4,950
4,168
26,050
102,251
10,895
6,443
54,610
22,460
26,000
20,570
5,010
4,203
26,260
104,962
11,231
6,519
55,210
22,670
26,250
20,850
5,100
4,262
26,350
106,940
11,573
6,693
55,740
22,800
26,520
21,120
5,310
4,312
26,520
62.3
61.6
62.7
62.5
57.6
53.4
48.2
49.0
65.9
62.7
63.2
62.7
61.9
62.8
57.5
53.3
47.8
48.8
66.1
62.8
63.7
63.4
61.6
62.7
57.5
53.3
48.0
49.0
66.6
62.6
92,017
9,651
6,000
52,720
21,180
24,970
19,670
4,700
4,093
24,400
96,048
9,987
6,038
53,370
21,250
25,130
19,720
4,750
4,109
24,610
57.9
56.6
59.2
61.2
54.7
51.6
46.3
46.5
64.8
58.7
1981
1985
1986
1982
1977
L ab o r fo rc e
United States........................................................
Canada .................................................................
Australia .................................................................
Japan ....................................................................
France ...................................................................
Germany................................................................
Italy........................................................................
Netherlands...........................................................
Sweden.................................................................
United Kingdom....................................................
115,461 117,834
12,639
12,870
7,562
7,272
59,410
58,820
23,340
23,480
27,090
27,280
21,800
21,990
5,710
4,418
4,437
27,370
27,460
P articip atio n r a te 1
United States........................................................
Canada .................................................................
Australia................................................................
Japan ....................................................................
France ...................................................................
Germany................................................................
Italy........................................................................
Netherlands...........................................................
Sweden.................................................................
United Kingdom....................................................
-
67.2
62.5
E m ployed
United States........................................................
Canada .................................................................
Australia................................................................
Japan ....................................................................
France...................................................................
Germany................................................................
Italy........................................................................
Netherlands...........................................................
Sweden.................................................................
United Kingdom....................................................
-
4,319
24,400
E m p lo ym en t-p o p u latio n ratio 2
United States........................................................
Canada .................................................................
Australia................................................................
Japan ....................................................................
France...................................................................
Germany................................................................
Italy........................................................................
Netherlands...........................................................
Sweden.................................................................
United Kingdom....................................................
-
65.4
55.6
U n em p lo yed
United States........................................................
Canada .................................................................
Australia................................................................
Japan ....................................................................
France ...................................................................
Germany................................................................
Italy........................................................................
Netherlands...........................................................
Sweden.................................................................
United Kingdom....................................................
-
118
3,060
U n em p lo ym en t rate
United States........................................................
Canada .................................................................
Australia.................................................................
Japan ....................................................................
France...................................................................
Germany................................................................
Italy........................................................................
Netherlands...........................................................
Sweden.................................................................
United Kingdom....................................................
1 Labor force as a percent of the civilian working-age population.
2 Employment as a percent of the civilian working-age population.
Digitized 120
for FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
- Data not available.
7.0
9.6
8.1
2.8
10.7
7.6
6.3
-
2.7
11.1
47.
Annual indexes of manufacturing productivity and related measures, 12 countries
(1977 = 100)
1960
1970
1973
1974
1975
1976
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
62.2
50.7
23.2
32.8
37.2
36.4
40.3
36.5
32.4
54.6
42.3
55.5
80.8
75.6
64.8
59.9
65.5
69.6
71.2
72.7
64.3
81.7
80.7
79.7
93.4
90.3
83.1
78.2
83.2
82.2
84.0
90.9
81.5
94.6
94.8
95.6
90.6
91.7
86.5
82.6
86.0
85.2
87.4
95.3
88.1
97.7
98.8
97.4
92.9
88.6
87.7
85.9
94.6
88.5
90.1
91.1
86.2
96.8
100.2
95.2
97.1
94.8
94.3
95.1
98.2
95.0
96.5
98.9
95.8
99.7
101.7
99.5
101.5
101.1
108.0
106.3
101.5
105.7
103.1
103.0
106.4
101.8
102.8
101.5
101.4
102.0
114.8
112.3
106.5
110.3
108.2
110.5
112.3
107.1
110.9
102.4
101.4
98.2
122.7
119.7
112.3
112.0
108.6
116.9
113.9
106.7
112.7
101.7
103.6
102.9
127.2
128.1
114.2
116.4
111.0
121.0
116.9
107.0
113.2
107.0
105.9
100.4
135.0
135.7
114.6
123.5
112.6
123.4
119.4
109.8
116.5
113.6
112.0
106.9
142.3
144.7
120.2
128.8
119.1
126.6
127.5
117.2
125.5
123.0
116.6
110.2
152.5
149.8
118.9
133.8
123.5
134.7
141.2
123.9
131.0
129.5
121.7
112.7
163.7
153.3
117.2
138.3
128.9
136.8
145.6
125.2
134.5
134.2
126.0
112.1
168.2
52.5
41.3
19.2
41.6
49.2
35.4
50.0
37.4
44.8
55.1
52.6
71.2
78.6
73.5
69.9
78.0
82.0
73.3
86.6
78.0
84.4
86.9
92.5
95.0
96.3
93.5
91.9
95.7
95.9
88.6
96.1
90.5
95.8
99.5
100.3
104.8
91.7
96.3
91.7
99.5
97.4
91.8
95.4
96.3
100.0
104.0
105.7
103.5
84.9
89.9
86.2
92.0
95.0
90.0
91.0
86.9
92.7
101.0
106.1
96.3
93.1
96.5
94.8
99.4
99.6
96.1
98.0
97.9
99.0
101.4
106.1
98.2
106.0
104.6
106.7
101.6
99.7
103.4
101.8
101.8
102.8
98.2
97.3
100.6
108.1
108.5
113.9
104.4
105.4
106.1
106.6
108.6
106.1
100.3
103.6
100.5
103.2
103.6
124.1
107.3
110.1
106.6
106.6
115.4
106.6
98.8
104.0
91.7
104.8
107.4
129.8
106.0
106.6
105.9
104.9
114.3
106.7
97.7
100.6
86.2
98.4
95.6
137.3
110.5
108.3
106.0
102.4
111.6
105.0
97.4
100.1
86.4
104.7
101.0
148.2
112.1
115.6
107.4
103.6
109.2
107.0
97.2
105.2
88.9
116.0
108.4
165.4
114.1
120.0
108.4
106.4
113.7
112.9
102.6
111.5
92.4
120.4
113.6
179.3
115.1
123.6
108.6
111.7
115.5
115.3
105.2
113.8
95.2
124.4
115.4
182.1
84.4
81.4
82.7
127.1
132.4
97.2
123.8
102.3
138.4
101.0
124.4
128.3
97.3
97.2
107.9
130.2
125.1
105.3
121.7
107.4
131.2
106.4
114.6
119.1
103.1
103.6
110.7
122.3
115.2
107.8
114.4
99.6
117.6
105.1
105.7
109.5
101.2
105.0
106.1
120.4
113.2
107.8
109.2
101.0
113.5
106.5
107.0
106.3
91.4
101.5
98.2
107.1
100.4
101.7
101.0
95.4
107.6
104.3
105.9
101.2
95.9
101.8
100.6
104.6
101.4
101.2
101.6
99.0
103.3
101.7
104.3
98.7
104.4
103.4
98.8
95.5
98.3
97.8
98.7
98.8
96.6
96.5
94.6
99.1
106.5
106.3
99.3
93.0
99.0
96.2
98.5
98.2
94.4
93.6
93.4
98.1
101.7
105.5
101.2
89.6
98.1
95.2
98.1
98.7
93.6
92.6
92.3
90.2
101.1
104.3
102.0
82.8
93.4
91.0
94.6
94.5
91.2
91.3
88.9
80.6
92.9
95.1
101.7
81.4
94.5
85.8
91.0
90.4
88.0
88.6
85.9
76.1
93.5
94.5
104.2
77.5
96.2
83.4
87.0
86.2
83.9
82.9
83.9
72.3
99.5
98.3
108.5
76.2
101.0
81.0
86.2
84.4
79.9
82.8
85.1
71.3
98.9
100.8
109.6
75.1
105.5
78.5
86.7
84.4
79.2
84.0
84.6
71.0
United States........................................................
Canada .................................................................
Japan ....................................................................
Belgium.................................................................
Denmark...............................................................
France ...................................................................
Germany...............................................................
Italy........................................................................
Netherlands...........................................................
Norway..................................................................
Sweden.................................................................
United Kingdom....................................................
36.5
27.5
8.9
13.8
12.6
15.1
18.8
8.3
12.5
15.8
14.7
15.2
57.4
47.9
33.9
34.9
36.3
36.6
48.0
26.1
39.0
37.9
38.5
31.5
68.8
60.3
55.1
53.5
56.1
52.3
67.5
43.7
60.5
54.5
54.2
48.3
76.2
69.1
72.3
65.2
67.9
62.0
76.9
54.5
71.9
63.6
63.8
57.7
85.1
78.9
84.2
79.0
81.0
76.7
84.5
70.2
82.2
77.2
77.3
77.3
92.1
90.3
90.7
89.5
90.4
88.9
91.3
84.2
91.9
88.8
91.5
89.3
108.2
107.6
106.6
107.8
110.2
113.5
107.8
114.5
108.4
110.0
111.4
116.4
118.6
118.6
113.4
117.5
123.1
129.3
116.1
134.7
117.0
116.0
120.1
138.8
132.4
131.3
120.7
130.4
135.9
148.2
125.6
160.2
123.6
128.0
133.6
168.3
145.2
151.1
129.8
144.5
149.6
171.5
134.5
197.1
129.1
142.8
148.1
192.5
157.5
167.3
136.6
150.7
162.9
202.3
141.0
237.3
137.5
156.0
158.9
212.3
162.4
177.4
140.7
159.8
174.2
227.0
148.4
276.4
144.0
173.5
173.3
227.7
168.2
188.0
144.9
173.1
184.3
246.9
155.5
307.4
151.0
188.3
189.7
243.9
176.7
195.9
152.0
183.7
194.4
262.5
162.8
339.5
159.0
204.8
208.9
261.3
National currency basis
United States........................................................
Canada .................................................................
Japan ....................................................................
Belgium.................................................................
Denmark................................................................
France...................................................................
Germany................................................................
Italy........................................................................
Netherlands...........................................................
Norway..................................................................
Sweden.................................................................
United Kingdom....................................................
58.7
54.2
38.4
42.0
33.8
41.6
46.6
22.8
38.5
29.0
34.8
27.4
71.0
63.4
52.3
58.2
55.4
52.6
67.4
36.0
60.7
46.4
47.7
39.5
73.7
66.8
66.4
68.4
67.4
63.6
80.3
48.1
74.3
57.6
57.2
50.5
84.1
75.3
83.6
78.9
79.0
72.8
88.0
57.2
81.6
65.2
64.6
59.3
91.7
89.1
96.0
91.9
85.6
86.7
93.8
77.1
95.4
79.7
77.1
81.2
94.9
95.3
96.2
94.2
92.1
93.6
94.6
85.1
96.0
89.1
90.0
89.8
106.6
106.5
98.7
101.4
108.6
107.4
104.5
111.2
101.8
108.1
108.4
114.7
117.0
116.2
98.8
104.7
115.7
117.3
107.3
121.9
104.1
108.2
108.3
135.5
130.6
133.7
98.4
109.0
121.0
132.3
115.7
137.0
108.5
120.0
118.6
165.4
140.1
146.7
102.0
112.8
131.1
147.4
121.2
162.9
110.4
133.4
130.9
179.9
148.7
166.5
101.2
111.1
142.2
163.8
125.2
192.4
115.2
142.1
136.3
186.9
145.0
166.0
98.9
110.5
144.9
176.2
124.6
218.3
113.0
148.0
138.1
185.1
144.2
170.6
95.0
115.6
155.1
184.5
125.9
228.2
106.9
152.0
144.8
188.4
145.1
173.8
92.9
119.8
166.0
189.8
126.3
248.2
109.2
163.5
155.3
194.7
U.S. dollar basis
United States........................................................
Canada .................................................................
Japan ....................................................................
Belgium.................................................................
Denmark ................................................................
France...................................................................
Germany...............................................................
Italy........................................................................
Netherlands...........................................................
Norway..................................................................
Sweden.................................................................
United Kingdom....................................................
58.7
59.4
28.5
30.2
29.5
41.7
25.9
32.5
25.1
21.7
30.1
44.2
71.0
64.5
39.1
42.0
44.4
46.8
42.9
50.6
41.2
34.5
41.1
54.2
73.7
71.0
65.6
63.1
67.2
70.4
70.4
73.1
65.6
53.4
58.7
70.9
84.1
81.8
76.8
72.7
77.9
74.5
79.1
77.6
74.6
62.8
65.1
79.5
91.7
93.1
86.7
89.7
89.6
99.5
88.7
104.3
92.8
81.4
83.2
103.4
94.9
102.7
86.9
87.5
91.5
96.3
87.3
90.5
89.1
86.9
92.3
92.9
106.6
99.3
126.8
115.6
118.4
117.3
121.0
115.6
115.7
109.7
107.2
126.1
117.0
105.4
121.3
127.9
132.0
135.5
135.9
129.5
127.4
113.8
112.9
164.9
130.6
121.5
116.8
133.7
129.0
154.1
147.9
141.4
134.2
129.3
125.3
220.5
140.1
130.0
123.8
109.2
110.3
133.2
124.9
126.3
108.9
123.6
115.4
208.8
148.7
143.4
108.8
86.9
102.3
122.4
119.7
125.4
105.8
117.1
96.9
187.2
145.0
143.1
111.5
77.4
95.1
113.7
113.3
126.8
97.1
107.9
80.4
160.8
144.2
139.9
107.2
71.7
89.9
103.8
102.7
114.7
81.8
99.1
78.2
144.3
145.1
135.2
104.3
72.3
94.0
103.9
99.6
114.8
80.7
101.3
80.6
144.8
Item and country
O u tp u t p e r hou r
United States........................................................
Canada .................................................................
Japan ....................................................................
Belgium.................................................................
Denmark................................................................
France ...................................................................
Germany................................................................
Italy........................................................................
Netherlands...........................................................
Norway..................................................................
Sweden.................................................................
United Kingdom....................................................
116.6
140.9
131.4
138.4
-
122.1
136.4
138.2
O utp ut
United States ........................................................
Canada ..................................................................
Japan ....................................................................
Belgium..................................................................
Denmark ................................................................
France...................................................................
Germany................................................................
Italy........................................................................
Netherlands...........................................................
Norway..................................................................
Sweden.................................................................
United Kingdom....................................................
127.0
108.1
114.5
119.3
107.0
114.4
96.0
T o ta l hours
United States........................................................
Canada .................................................................
Japan ....................................................................
Belgium.................................................................
Denmark................................................................
France...................................................................
Germany................................................................
Italy........................................................................
Netherlands...........................................................
Norway..................................................................
Sweden.................................................................
United Kingdom....................................................
98.7
103.0
108.3
-
108.9
76.7
87.2
86.2
-
87.6
83.9
69.5
C o m p e n s a tio n p e r hour
181.9
202.2
157.3
-
202.6
274.0
171.0
353.9
-
220.5
223.1
282.4
Unit lab o r costs:
144.3
180.4
93.5
-
173.8
194.4
130.2
255.7
-
180.5
163.6
204.4
U n it lab o r costs:
144.3
137.9
148.7
-
128.9
138.0
139.2
151.4
-
129.8
102.5
171.9
- Data not available.
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
121
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
48.
September 1987 •
Current Labor Statistics:
Illness and Injury Data
Occupational injury and illness incidence rates by industry, United States
Incidence rates per 100 full-time workers2
Industry and type of case1
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
P R IV A T E S E C TO R 3
Total cases................................................................................................
Lost workday cases..................................................................................
Lost workdays............................................................................................
9.3
3.8
61.6
9.4
4.1
63.5
9.5
4.3
67.7
8.7
4.0
65.2
8.3
3.8
61.7
7.7
3.5
58.7
7.6
3.4
58.5
8.0
3.7
63.4
7.9
3.6
64.9
11.5
5.1
81.1
11.6
5.4
80.7
11.7
5.7
83.7
11.9
5.8
82.7
12.3
5.9
82.8
11.8
5.9
86.0
11.9
6.1
90.8
12.0
6.1
90.7
11.4
5.7
91.3
10.9
6.0
128.8
11.5
6.4
143.2
11.4
6.8
150.5
11.2
6.5
163.6
11.6
6.2
146.4
10.5
5.4
137.3
8.4
4.5
125.1
9.7
5.3
160.2
8.4
4.8
145.3
15.5
5.9
111.5
16.0
6.4
109.4
16.2
6.8
120.4
15.7
6.5
117.0
15.1
6.3
113.1
14.6
6.0
115.7
14.8
6.3
118.2
15.5
6.9
128.1
15.2
6.8
128.9
15.0
5.7
100.2
15.9
6.3
105.3
16.3
6.8
111.2
15.5
6.5
113.0
15.1
6.1
107.1
14.1
5.9
112.0
14.4
6.2
113.0
15.4
6.9
121.3
15.2
6.8
120.4
16.0
5.7
116.7
16.6
6.2
110.9
16.6
6.7
123.1
16.3
6.3
117.6
14.9
6.0
106.0
15.1
5.8
113.1
15.4
6.2
122.4
14.9
6.4
131.7
14.5
6.3
127.3
15.6
6.1
115.5
15.8
6.6
111.0
16.0
6.9
124.3
15.5
6.7
118.9
15.2
6.6
119.3
14.7
6.2
118.6
14.8
6.4
119.0
15.8
7.1
130.1
15.4
7.0
133.3
13.1
5.1
82.3
13.2
5.6
84.9
13.3
5.9
90.2
12.2
5.4
86.7
11.5
5.1
82.0
10.2
4.4
75.0
10.0
4.3
73.5
10.6
4.7
77.9
10.4
4.6
80.2
22.3
10.4
178.0
22.6
11.1
178.8
20.7
10.8
175.9
18.6
9.5
171.8
17.6
9.0
158.4
16.9
8.3
153.3
18.3
9.2
163.5
19.6
9.9
172.0
18.5
9.3
171.4
17.2
6.0
92.0
17.5
6.9
95.9
17.6
7.1
99.6
16.0
6.6
97.6
15.1
6.2
91.9
13.9
5.5
85.6
14.1
5.7
83.0
15.3
6.4
101.5
15.0
6.3
100.4
16.9
6.9
120.4
16.8
7.8
126.3
16.8
8.0
133.7
15.0
7.1
128.1
14.1
6.9
122.2
13.0
6.1
112.2
13.1
6.0
112.0
13.6
6.6
120.8
13.9
6.7
127.8
16.2
6.8
119.4
17.0
7.5
123.6
17.3
8.1
134.7
15.2
7.1
128.3
14.4
6.7
121.3
12.4
5.4
101.6
12.4
5.4
103.4
13.3
6.1
115.3
12.6
5.7
113.8
19.1
7.2
109.0
19.3
8.0
112.4
19.9
8.7
124.2
18.5
8.0
118.4
17.5
7.5
109.9
15.3
6.4
102.5
15.1
6.1
96.5
16.1
6.7
104.9
16.3
6.9
110.1
14.0
4.7
69.9
14.4
5.4
75.1
14.7
5.9
83.6
13.7
5.5
81.3
12.9
5.1
74.9
10.7
4.2
66.0
9.8
3.6
58.1
10.7
4.1
65.8
10.8
4.2
69.3
8.6
3.0
46.7
8.7
3.3
50.3
8.6
3.4
51.9
8.0
3.3
51.8
7.4
3.1
48.4
6.5
2.7
42.2
6.3
2.6
41.4
6.8
2.8
45.0
6.4
2.7
45.7
11.8
5.0
79.3
11.5
5.1
78.0
11.6
5.5
85.9
10.6
4.9
82.4
9.8
4.6
78.1
9.2
4.0
72.2
8.4
3.6
64.5
9.3
4.2
68.8
9.0
3.9
71.6
7.0
2.4
37.4
6.9
2.6
37.0
7.2
2.8
40.0
6.8
2.7
41.8
6.5
2.7
39.2
5.6
2.3
37.C
5.2
2.1
35.6
5y
2.2
37.5
5.2
2.2
37.9
11.5
4.0
58.7
11.8
4.5
66.4
11.7
4.7
67.7
10.£
4.4
67.9
10.7
4.4
68.3
9.E
4.1
69.9
9.S
4.0
66.3
10.5
4.3
70.2
9.7
4.2
73.2
A g ricu ltu re, fo re s try , and fish in g 3
Total cases................................................................................................
Lost workday cases..................................................................................
Lost workdays............................................................................................
M ining
Total cases................................................................................................
Lost workday cases..................................................................................
Lost workdays............................................................................................
C o nstru ction
Total cases................................................................................................
Lost workday cases..................................................................................
Lost workdays............................................................................................
General building contractors:
Total cases................................................................................................
Lost workday cases ..................................................................................
Lost workdays............................................................................................
Heavy construction contractors:
Total cases................................................................................................
Lost workday cases..................................................................................
Lost workdays............................................................................................
Special trade contractors:
Total cases................................................................................................
Lost workday cases..................................................................................
Lost workdays............................................................................................
M anufacturin g
Total cases................................................................................................
Lost workday cases..................................................................................
Lost workdays............................................................................................
D u ra ble goo ds
Lumber and wood products:
Total cases................................................................................................
Lost workday cases ..................................................................................
Lost workdays............................................................................................
Furniture and fixtures:
Total cases................................................................................................
Lost workday cases..................................................................................
Lost workdays...........................................................................................
Stone, clay, and glass products:
Total cases................................................................................................
Lost workday cases..................................................................................
Lost workdays............................................................................................
Primary metal industries:
Total cases................................................................................................
Lost workday cases..................................................................................
Lost workdays............................................................................................
Fabricated metal products:
Total cases................................................................................................
Lost workday cases ..................................................................................
Lost workdays...........................................................................................
Machinery, except electrical:
Total cases................................................................................................
Lost workday cases..................................................................................
Lost workdays............................................................................................
Electric and electronic equipment:
Total cases...............................................................................................
Lost workday cases .................................................................................
Lost workdays...........................................................................................
Transportation equipment:
Total cases...............................................................................................
Lost workday cases.................................................................................
Lost workdays...........................................................................................
Instruments and related products:
Lost workday cases .................................................................................
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries:
Lost workday cases.................................................................................
Lost workdays...........................................................................................
See footnotes at end of table.
122FRASER
Digitized for
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
48. Continued— Occupational injury and illness incidence rates by industry, United States
Incidence rates per 100 full-time workers2
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
N o n d u rab le g oo ds
Food and kindred products:
Total cases..............................................................................................
Lost workday cases..................................................................................
Lost workdays............................................................................
Tobacco manufacturing:
Total cases...............................................................................................
Lost workday cases..................................................................................
Lost workdays...........................................................................................
Textile mill products:
Total cases................................................................................................
Lost workday cases..................................................................................
Lost workdays....................................................................................
Apparel and other textile products:
Total cases..................................................................................
Lost workday cases..................................................................................
Lost workdays.............................................................................
Paper and allied products:
Total cases................................................................................................
Lost workday cases..................................................................................
Lost workdays............................................................................................
Printing and publishing:
Total cases................................................................................................
Lost workday cases..................................................................................
Lost workdays............................................................................................
Chemicals and allied products:
Total cases................................................................................................
Lost workday cases..................................................................................
Lost workdays..........................................................................................
Petroleum and coal products:
Total cases................................................................................................
Lost workday cases..................................................................................
Lost workdays............................................................................................
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products:
Total cases................................................................................................
Lost workday cases..................................................................................
Lost workdays............................................................................................
Leather and leather products:
Total cases.............................................................................................
Lost workday cases........................................................................
Lost workdays.....................................................................................
19.5
8.5
130.1
19.4
8.9
132.2
19.9
9.5
141.8
18.7
9.0
136.8
17.8
8.6
130.7
16.7
8.0
129.3
16.5
7.9
131.2
16.7
8.1
131.6
16.7
8.1
138.0
9.1
3.8
66.7
8.7
4.0
58.6
9.3
4.2
64.8
8.1
3.8
45.8
8.2
3.9
56.8
7.2
3.2
44.6
6.5
3.0
42.8
7.7
3.2
51.7
7.3
3.0
51.7
10.2
2.9
57.4
10.2
3.4
61.5
9.7
3.4
61.3
9.1
3.3
62.8
8.8
3.2
59.2
7.6
2.8
53.8
7.4
2.8
51.4
8.0
3.0
54.0
7.5
3.0
57.4
6.7
2.0
31.7
6.5
2.2
32.4
6.5
2.2
34.1
6.4
2.2
34.9
6.3
2.2
35.0
6.0
2.1
36.4
6.4
2.4
40.6
6.7
2.5
40.9
6.7
2.6
44.1
13.6
5.0
101.6
13.5
5.7
103.3
13.5
6.0
108.4
12.7
5.8
112.3
11.6
5.4
103.6
10.6
4.9
99.1
10.0
4.5
90.3
10.4
4.7
93.8
10.2
4.7
94.6
6.8
2.7
41.7
7.0
2.9
43.8
7.1
3.1
45.1
6.9
3.1
46.5
6.7
3.0
47.4
6.6
2.8
45.7
6.6
2.9
44.6
6.5
2.9
46.0
6.3
2.9
49.2
8.0
3.1
51.4
7.8
3.3
50.9
7.7
3.5
54.9
6.8
3.1
50.3
6.6
3.0
48.1
5.7
2.5
39.4
5.5
2.5
42.3
5.3
2.4
40.8
5.1
2.3
38.8
8.1
3.3
59.2
7.9
3.4
58.3
7.7
3.6
62.0
7.2
3.5
59.1
6.7
2.9
51.2
5.3
2.5
46.4
5.5
2.4
46.8
5.1
2.4
53.5
5.1
2.4
49.9
16.8
7.6
118.1
17.1
8.1
125.5
17.1
8.2
127.1
15.5
7.4
118.6
14.6
7.2
117.4
12.7
6.0
100.9
13.0
6.2
101.4
13.6
6.4
104.3
13.4
6.3
107.4
11.5
4.4
68.9
11.7
4.7
72.5
11.5
4.9
76.2
11.7
5.0
82.7
11.5
5.1
82.6
9.9
4.5
86.5
10.0
4.4
87.3
10.5
4.7
94.4
10.3
4.6
88.3
9.7
5.3
95.9
10.1
5.7
102.3
10.0
5.9
107.0
9.4
5.5
104.5
9.0
5.3
100.6
8.5
4.9
96.7
8.2
4.7
94.9
8.8
5.2
105.1
8.6
5.0
107.1
7.7
2.9
44.0
7.9
3.2
44.9
8.0
3.4
49.0
7.4
3.2
48.7
7.3
3.1
45.3
7.2
3.1
45.5
7.2
3.1
47.8
7.4
3.3
50.5
7.4
3.2
50.7
8.5
3.6
52.5
8.9
3.9
57.5
8.8
4.1
59.1
8.2
3.9
58.2
7.7
3.6
54.7
7.1
3.4
52.1
7.0
3.2
50.6
7.2
3.5
55.5
7.2
3.5
59.8
7.4
2.7
40.5
7.5
2.8
39.7
7.7
3.1
44.7
7.1
2.9
44.5
7.1
2.9
41.1
7.2
2.9
42.6
7.3
3.0
46.7
7.5
3.2
48.4
7.5
3.1
47.0
2.0
.8
10.4
2.1
.8
12.5
2.1
.9
13.3
2.0
.8
12.2
1.9
.8
11.6
2.0
.9
13.2
2.0
.9
12.8
1.9
.9
13.6
2.0
.9
15.4
5.5
2.2
35.4
5.5
2.4
36.2
5.5
2.5
38.1
5.2
2.3
35.8
5.0
2.3
35.9
4.9
2.3
35.8
5.1
2.4
37.0
5.2
2.5
41.1
5.4
2.6
45.4
T ra n s p o rta tio n an d public utilities
Total cases............................................................................................
Lost workday cases..................................................................................
Lost workdays..............................................................................
W h o lesale and retail tra d e
Total cases............................................................................
Lost workday cases ...........................................................................
Lost workdays...................................................................
Wholesale trade:
Total cases............................................................................
Lost workday cases .................................................................................
Lost workdays.......................................................
Retail trade:
Total cases.....................................................................
Lost workday cases.......................................................................
Lost workdays...................................................................
Finance, Insurance , and real esta te
Total cases...............................................................................
Lost workday cases ...............................................................................
Lost workdays.................................................................
Serv ices
Total cases................................................................................................
Lost workday cases ..................................................................................
Lost workdays...........................................................................................
1 Total cases include fatalities.
2 The incidence rates represent the number of injuries and illnesses or lost
workdays per 100 full-time workers and were calculated as:
(N/EH) X 200,000, where:
N = number of injuries and illnesses or lost workdays.
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200,000 = base for 100 full-time equivalent workers (working 40 hours per
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