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November 200 U.S. Department of Labor in this issue: U.S. economy Labor force Occupations https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Bureau o f Labor Statistics U.S. Department of Labor Elaine L. Chao, Secretary Bureau of Labor Statistics Lois L. Orr, Acting Commissioner The Monthly Labor Review ( usps 987-800) is published monthly by the Bureau o f Labor Statistics o f the U.S. Department o f Labor. The Review welcomes articles on the la b o r fo rce , lab o r-m an a g e m en t re la tio n s , b u sin ess c o n d itio n s , in d u stry p ro d u c tiv ity , co m p e n sa tio n , occupational safety and health, demographic trends, and other economic developments. Papers should be factual and analytical, not polemical in tone. 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Periodicals postage paid at Washington, dc , and at additional mailing addresses. U nless stated o th erw ise, a rticles ap p earin g in this publication are in the public domain and may be reprinted without express permission from the Editor-in-Chief. Please cite the specific issue of the Monthly Labor Review as the source. Information is available to sensory impaired individuals upon request: Voice phone: (202) 691-5200 Federal Relay Service: 1-800-877-8339. Send address changes to Monthly Labor Review, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, dc P ostmaster : 20402-0001. Cover designed by Keith Tapscott https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis RESEARCH LIBRARY Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW DEC 2 8 2001 Volume 124, Number 11 November 2001 Employment outlook: 2000-10 The U. S. economy 3 The outlook is characterized by healthy domestic growth, high productivity, and strong foreign markets Betty W Su The labor force 21 The labor force is projected to grow older, with diversity continuing to increase Howard N Fullerton, Jr. and Mitra Toossi Industry output and employment 39 Employment will not rise as quickly as in the last decade, nonfarm wage and salary workers will fill most of the new jobs Jay M. Berman Occupational employment 57 A majority of the job growth is expected in occupations requiring a postsecondary vocational award or degree Daniel E. Hecker Departments Labor month in review Current labor statistics 2 85 Editor-in-Chief: Deborah P. Klein • Executive Editor: Richard M. Devens • Managing Editor: Anna Huffman Hill • Editors: Brian I. Baker, Bonita L. B oles, Richard Ham ilton, Leslie Brown Joyner, Lawrence H. Leith • Book R eviews: Roger A. Comer, Richard Hamilton • Design and Layout: Catherine D. Bowman, Edith W. Peters https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Labor Month in Review The Novem ber Review Even in the most stable environment, projecting longer-term economic trends is a tricky business. In an environment that has changed much in a short time, such projections are even more difficult. The projections set forth in this issue were prepared before the events of September 11 and before the recent increases in un employment. As longer-term projections, however, the underlying assumptions should be viewed independently from short-term developments. It is thus important that readers take the time to review the article by Betty W. Su outlining the projected economic en vironment that drives the rest of the package. The projection sees output ris ing somewhat more quickly from 2000 to 2010 than it had in the decade immedi ately preceding the projection period. The rate of employment growth is pro jected to be slightly lower than it had been. Therefore, as a matter of arith metic, the projection incorporates a con tinued trend toward higher productivity growth. This final assumption is con sistent with the continued growth of capital stocks resulting from relatively robust projected rates of business in vestment. Howard N Fullerton, Jr. and Mitra Toossi find that the labor force is pro jected to grow at almost the same rate from 2000 to 2010 as it had in the 10 years ended in 2000. After the projected 11.9percent increase, the labor force will number almost 158 million in 2010. While the overall rate of growth in the labor force isn’t projected to change much, changes in demographic structure will proceed apace. Both younger and older workers will make up higher proportions of the workforce, both Hispanic and Asian workers will continue to make up growing shares of the labor force, and the portion of the labor force that is fe male will continue to edge up, reaching 48 percent in 2010. Longstanding trends in industry em ployment structure are also projected to 2 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis continue, according to Jay M. Berman: “The service-producing sector contin ues to be the dominant employment generator in the economy, as has been the case historically. Business services and health services are projected to re main responsible for the majority of em ployment growth in the service-produc ing sector.” Daniel E. Hecker concludes the pack age with a description of projected occu pational employment. While jobs requir ing a college degree of one sort or an other are projected to grow at the fastest rates, most new jobs will be in occupa tions asking only for work experience or on-the-job training. This reflects the fact that the latter set of occupations ac counted for about 7 out of 10 jobs in 2000. Town and country Average annual pay within the Nation’s nonmetropolitan areas rose by 4.9 per cent in 2000, compared with 6.0 percent in metropolitan areas. The difference between nonmetropolitan and metro politan pay has gradually widened over the years. In 1990, the difference between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan pay levels amounted to approximately 16 per cent. In 1995, the difference was 23 per- cent and in 2000, nonmetropolitan aver age annual pay was 26 percent less than pay in metropolitan areas. Average annual pay in nonmetro politan areas in 2000 was $27,311. In comparison, annual pay in metropolitan areas averaged $36,986. Find additional information in “Average Annual Pay Levels in Metropolitan Areas, 2000,” news release USDL 01-31 8. Labor’s disaster response The events of September 11, 2001, re sulted in a tragic loss of life and signifi cant disruptions to workers in the local affected economies. The U.S. Depart ment of Labor has resources to assist the victims of the terrorist attacks of September 11, those involved in the re covery effort in New York, Virginia, and Pennsylvania, and ongoing concerns related to America’s war on terrorism. The Department of Labor’s toll-free in formation lines in the box below can as sist workers and employers with ques tions about job loss, business closures, pay, leave, workplace injuries, safety and health, pension and health benefits, and reemployment rights for reservists. □ Toll-free information numbers Job Loss, Layoffs, Business Closures, Unemployment Benefits and Job Training.......... 1-877-US-2JOBS Reemployment Rights for Veterans, National Guard, or Reservists............................... 1-866-4-USA-DOL Loss of Pension and Health Benefits, or Health Care Portability...................................... 1-866-4—USA-DOL Injuries and Fatalities.............................................. 1-866-999-3322 Pay, Overtime, and Family Medical L eave............. 1-866-4—US-WAGE Workplace Safety and H ealth................................. 1-866-4—USA-DOL Other Department of Labor questions................... 1-866-4-USA-DOL TTY number for all Department of Labor questions................................................. November 2001 1-877-889-5627 U.S. Economy Employment^ outloolc 2000-10 The U.S. economy to 2010 Domestic growth with continued high productivity, low unemployment rates, and strong foreign markets characterize the expected outlook fo r the coming decade Betty W. Su Betty W. Su is an e conom ist in the Division of Industry Em ploym ent Pro jections, Office of O ccupational Sta tistics and Employ m ent Projections, Bureau o f Labor Statistics. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis he Bureau of Labor Statistics ( b l s , the B ureau) p rojections for the U.S. economy during the 2000-10 decade re flect continued growth. Gross domestic prod uct ( g d p ) is expected to reach $12.8 trillion in chained 1996 dollars by the end of the decade, an increase of $3.6 trillion over the period.1 Ris ing by an average annual rate of 3.4 percent, g d p is projected to grow faster than the 3.2percent annual rate of growth over the preced ing 10-year period, from 1990 to 2000. Slower growth of civilian household employment, from 1.3 percent a year during the 1990-2000 period to 1.1 percent from 2000 to 2010, is expected to result in an increase of 16.2 million employees over the latter period, slightly less than the in crease of 16.4 million employees between 1990 and 2000. The employment projection is accom panied by an assumed unemployment rate of 4.0 percent in 2010, the same as in 2000. To best understand how these projections relate to the U.S. economy, it is helpful to examine the ef fects of major economic events that took place over the past four decades. During the decade of the 1960s, labor pro ductivity grew at an annual average rate of 2.9 percent, spurred by the aerospace program and strong defense-related demand. During the 1970s, labor productivity growth slowed to 1.8 percent annually as businesses struggled to deal with sky rocketing petroleum prices, energy shortages, sharp cutbacks in defense spending, and a deemphasis of aerospace research programs. The T 1980s were marked by even slower productivity growth— 1.5 percent each year over the decade—as large expenditures by businesses on computers and other technologies seemed to have no impact on the statistics and as significant corporate re structuring (downsizing, contracting out, and so forth) worked through the economy. In the early part of the 1990s, the economy moved into a re cession, further muting productivity growth, but the stage was set for the longest sustained recov ery in the post-World War II economy. At the end of the 1990-91 recession, the Fed eral budget faced a $215 billion deficit that in creased further to $298 billion in 1992. Deficit con trol policies and selective economic stimulation in the 1990s resulted in a budget surplus in 1998 for the first time since 1969, an unemployment rate of 4.0 percent in 2000 (the lowest in the past three The BLS projections presented in this issue were completed prior to the tragic events of September 11. While there have been numer ous immediate economic impacts, the nature and severity o f longer term impacts remain unclear. At this time, it is impossible to know how individual industries or occupations may be affected over the next decade. The Bureau will continue to review its projections and, as the long-term consequences of September 11 become clearer, will incorporate these effects into subsequent releases of the labor force, industrial, and occupational outlook. Monthly Labor Review November 2001 3 U.S. Economy cent in 1980 and 66.7 percent in 1990. Rising disposable incomes during these periods supplied the resources necessary to sup port the expansion in consumption. As consumers got into the spending habit, however, increases in personal consumption were more often made at the expense of the savings rate, which dropped from a high of 10.2 percent in 1980 to 7.8 percent by 1990. (See tables 1 and 2.) During the 1990-95 period, consumer spending grew at 2.6 percent per year, following a 3.4-percent annual growth rate over the 1980-90 period. Beginning in 1996, with con sumers buoyed by a number of factors, including the thriving job market, steady incomes, low interest rates, low inflation, and increased wealth from rising asset prices, spending ac celerated to its fastest pace in more than a decade. Consump tion expenditures grew by 4.6 percent yearly from 1996 to 2000, although consumers turned cautious in late 2000, due largely to losses in wealth from stock price declines. Never theless, the personal consumption expenditures share of g d p increased by 0.8 percentage point within just 4 years, from 67.0 percent in 1996 to 67.8 percent in 2000. Mirroring the expansion in consumption, the annual savings rate dropped to 1.0 percent in 2000, the lowest ever in history.3 Consumer demand is projected to grow at an average an nual rate of 3.5 percent from 2000 to 2010, a slight increase over the 3.4-percent rate posted during the preceding 10year period. The 3.5-percent rate is slightly greater than the projected 3.4-percent growth for g d p over the same span. As a result, consumption expenditures are anticipated to amount to 68.5 percent of g d p in 2010, a share that is 0.7 percentage point higher than in 2000. Real disposable income is pro jected to grow at a 3.5-percent annual rate between 2000 and decades), moderate inflation, and rapid productivity growth at an average of 2.5 percent a year between 1995 and 2000, an increase over the 1.5-percent figure posted between 1990 and 1995. The strong growth in production, a maturing labor force, businesses becoming increasingly successful in the global marketplace, and relatively tight labor markets unac companied by inflationary pressures contribute to an opti mistic vision for the U.S. economy during the first decade of the next century.2 The outlook for the 2000-10 period presented in this article includes projections of demand, income growth, em ployment, and labor productivity. Each section o f the ar ticle describes the projections in the context o f trends over the previous 10-year period. The last two sections discuss the macroeconomic model, the major assumptions underlying the aggregate economic projections, and the sen sitivity of b l s economic projections to those assumptions. Real dem and gdp and Its com ponents Personal consumption expenditures. Personal consump tion spending, which makes up two-thirds of economic activ ity, is the largest component of demand. During the past four decades, the growth of consumer spending reflected the in teraction of many factors that influenced consumers’ deci sions. Among these factors, increasing affluence, changing demographics, technological innovations, and changing tastes and lifestyles were particularly important. Affected by the wave of baby boomers moving through the population beginning in the 1960s, consumer spending increased as a share of g d p , growing from 64.8 percent in 1970 to 65.2 per Table 1. Gross domestic product by major demand category, 1980, 1990, 2000, and projected 2010 A verage annual rate of change P ercen t distribu tion B illions of chained 1996 dollars C ategory 19 9 0 -2 0 0 0 2 0 00-1 0 1990 2000 $9,224.0 $12,835.6 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 3.2 3.2 3.4 6,257.8 8,786.5 65.2 66.7 67.8 68.5 3.4 3.4 3.5 907.3 575.7 632.2 1,772.9 1,133.2 1,532.3 2,953.8 2,393.7 3,282.7 13.4 13.5 6.8 8.6 9.4 23.0 18.6 25.6 3.3 5.6 6.7 19.2 12.3 16.6 6.8 6.9 7.0 9.3 5.2 7.8 7.9 292.7 443.2 349.0 392.7 6.0 6.6 3.8 3.1 4.2 -2.4 1.2 134.7 163.0 196.7 234.7 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.8 595.1 781.1 1,026.3 1,307.5 12 .1 11 .6 1 1 .1 10 .2 2.8 2.8 2.5 22.9 -4.7 20.4 49.6 -.1 .2 .4 1990 Gross domestic product.......... Personal consumption expenditures............................... Gross private domestic investment.................................. Exports......................................... Imports......................................... Federal defense consumption expenditures and gross investment.................................. Federal nondefense consumption expenditures and gross investment................ State and local consumption expenditures and gross investment................ $4,900.9 $6,707.9 3,193.0 4,474.5 655.3 333.4 326.3 Residual'......................................... 2000 2010 1 The residual is calculated as real gross domestic product, plus imports, less other components. 4 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 1 9 80-9 0 2010 1980 1980 November 2001 .5 S ources: Historical data, Bureau of Economic Analysis; projected data, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Table 2. Personal income, 1980, 1990, 2000, and projected 2010 Billions of current dollars A verage annual rate of change P ercen t distribution C a te g o ry 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 67.3 64.1 64.6 65.0 56.2 45.6 10.5 58.1 48.9 9.2 6.4 3.6 59.3 51.4 7.9 5.7 3.7 1 9 80-9 0 1 9 90-2 000 2 0 0 0 -1 0 Sources Personal income..................................... $2,323.9 Labor incom e...................................... 1,562.9 Disbursements of wages and salaries....................... 1,377.5 Private industries......................... 1,116.2 Government................................. 261.3 Other labor income.......................... 185.4 Group health contributions.......... 61.0 Other............................................ 124.4 Business-related personal income..... 559.3 Proprietors’ income......................... 177.6 Rental income.................................. 31.3 Personal dividend income............... 64.0 Personal interest income................ 286.4 Transfer payments.............................. 279.1 Less social insurance contributions..................................... -77.3 $4,903.2 $8,319.2 $14,160.5 3,144.6 5,371.4 9,203.3 2,754.6 2,237.9 516.7 390.0 188.6 201.4 1,368.0 381.0 49.1 165.4 772.5 594.4 4,837.2 4,068.8 768.4 534.2 298.0 236.2 2,236.4 715.0 141.6 379.2 1 ,000.6 1,069.1 8,397.8 7,274.2 1,123.6 805.5 521.5 284.0 3,547.4 1 ,2 1 1 . 2 186.8 552.1 1,597.3 1,991.0 59.3 48.0 -203.7 -357.7 2,323.9 1,762.9 304.2 49.4 1.9 205.6 4,903.2 3,831.5 609.7 115.8 11 .2 8.0 2.6 5.4 24.1 7.6 1.3 8.0 3.8 4.1 27.9 7.8 1.0 7.8 7.2 5.4 5.5 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.7 11.9 4.9 9.4 7.9 4.6 5.8 5.7 6.2 6.0 4.0 3.2 4.7 5.0 6.5 3.9 4.2 5.8 1.9 4.7 5.4 5.5 5.5 2.8 2.0 26.9 25.1 8.6 8.6 1.7 4.6 1 1 .2 2.8 10.0 8.7 10.4 7.9 2.6 6.0 3.8 4.8 6.4 10 .2 5.8 5.0 5.5 5.7 4.1 5.0 5.4 5.8 7.8 5.9 9.4 -14.8 1.6 12.3 3.4 15.8 12.0 12.0 12 .1 12.9 1.3 3.9 11.3 14.1 -581.3 -3.3 -4.2 -4.3 ^ 1.1 14,160.5 11,707.2 1,916.5 375.5 56.2 104.9 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 7.8 75.9 13.1 78.1 12.4 2.4 80.9 15.5 2.5 .4 82.7 13.5 2.7 .4 .7 8.1 334.4 8,319.2 6,728.4 1,288.2 205.3 29.6 67.7 2,019.8 4,293.6 7,031.0 12,243.9 7.8 5.1 5.7 3,658.0 8,859 5,014.2 17,153 6,539.2 25,528 9,189.1 40,768 3.2 2.7 4.1 3.5 4.8 16,045 20,032 7.8 23,742 30,597 .9 1.7 -18.8 2.6 -1 2.8 Uses Personal income..................................... Personal consumption.......................... Tax and nontax payments................... Personal interest payments................. Transfers to foreigners......................... Personal savings................................. 12.0 2.1 .1 8.8 .2 6.8 .8 7.2 8.9 20.6 6.2 6.6 4.5 A ddenda Disposable personal income.................. Disposable personal income, chained 1996 dollars......................... Per capita disposable incom e............... Per capita disposable income, chained 1996 dollars......................... Savings rate (percent)............................ S ources: 10 .2 1.0 6.8 2 .2 -2.7 Historical data, Bureau of Economic Analysis; projected data, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2010,0.8 percentage point higher than the rate for 1990-2000. Consumer durable goods. Consumer spending on longlasting items, such as motor vehicles, personal computers, and household furnishings, is highly cyclical. During the past two decades, particularly in the 1990s, the U.S. economy ex perienced the most sustained spending on big-ticket items ever, bringing household outlays for durable goods to a post war high. Real spending on durables increased from a 5.7percent annual rate of growth in the 1980-90 period to 6.3 percent per year between 1990 and 2000. (See table 3.) Over the coming decade, with a projected rise in family income—a key to determining future spending trends— durable goods are still expected to be the fastest growth sector, increasing at an average annual rate of 5.0 percent in the 2000-10 projec tion horizon. Light vehicles. Over the past 5-10 years, consumers shifted their relative preferences from cars to minivans and sport utility vehicles, and the U.S. automobile industry witnessed a dramatic change in light-truck offerings (a category that https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis includes sport utility vehicles and minivans, as well as small pickup trucks). Demand for light trucks jumped sharply, and the market share of the industry increased rapidly, from 34.7 percent oftotal light-vehicle sales in 1990 to 44.0 percent in 1995 and 51.7 percent in 2000. From 1995 to 2000, consumer spending on light vehicles grew an average of 7.9 percent per year. Over the next decade, the robust gain in auto sales is expected to ease, but remain strong. Spending on light vehicles as a whole is pro jected to grow at a rate of 3.5 percent yearly between 2000 and 2010, while consumer spending on light trucks is still anticipated to be well above spending on cars. Personal computers and software. During the past decade, technological innovations resulted in a proliferation of newly available goods and services, including personal computers and software. Real personal computer spending grew at a ro bust 52.1 percent per year from 1990 to 2000, with about 58 percent of all U.S. homes owning at least one computer in 2000. Over the decade to come, increasing worldwide use of the Internet and interest in electronic commerce will fuel the demand for computers, although growth will likely not reach Monthly Labor Review November 2001 5 U.S. Economy the level of the previous decade. Expenditures for personal computers are projected to grow at an annual rate of 22.1 percent throughout the projection period, with real consump tion spending on computers by households increasing from $ 108.8 billion in 2000 to $802.4 billion in 2010, or an increase in share from 12.1 percent to 55.1 percent of total spending on durable goods over the period. It is probably more accurate to present personal computer sales in nominal terms, because of their price behavior. Al ready on the decline for more than a decade, computer prices fell by nearly one-half in the 1996-2000 period. Personal con sumption expenditures on computers had grown 13.9 percent annually in nominal terms between 1990 and 2000. From 2000 to 2010, spending on personal computers is projected to in crease 8.0 percent per year, and as a result, nominal expendi tures on computers are expected to reach $55 billion by 2010, Table 3. up from $25.5 billion in 2000. This large discrepancy between the real (in terms of chained 1996 dollars) and nominal expend itures on computers highlights the expected substantial price deflation over the 2000-10 period, as the intense domestic and global competition and rapid technological improvement of the previous decade are anticipated to continue. As computer prices drop and use of the Internet expands via online mass-marketing services, the increasing sales of personal computers to households will stimulate demand for consumer software. Spending on consumer software for edu cation, family management, and entertainment purposes reached $ 17.8 billion in 2000, up from $500 million in 1990. By 2010, the figure is expected to rise to $36.3 billion, with a 7.4percent rate of growth per year between 2000 and 2010. Furniture. Between 1990 and 2000, consumer spending on Personal consumption expenditures, 1980, 1990, 2000, and projected 2010 A v e ra g e an nu al ra te of c h a n g e Billions of c h a in e d 1996 dollars C a te g o ry 1980 1990 2000 2010 Personal consumption expenditures..... $3,193.0 $4,474.5 $6,257.8 $8,786.5 Durable g oods........................................... New light vehicles.................................. Other motor vehicles and parts............ Personal computers............................... Software................................................. Furniture................................................. Ophthalmic products.............................. Other durable goods............................... 279.8 88.3 54.1 487.1 159.9 53.5 .5 160.4 16.1 80.8 895.5 218.6 129.3 108.8 17.8 294.6 20.4 152.9 1,455.4 307.3 176.2 802.4 36.3 483.2 27.7 256.1 Nondurable goods...................................... Food and beverages.............................. Clothing and shoes................................ Gasoline and motor o il........................... Fuel oil and co a l..................................... Tobacco products................................... Drugs and medicines............................. Other nondurable goods......................... 1,065.8 585.4 124.0 94.8 17.7 65.6 54.5 138.9 1,369.6 722.4 197.2 113.1 13.1 52.0 80.3 194.3 1,849.9 881.3 335.3 136.6 13.8 42.8 139.9 305.7 2,635.5 1 ,10 2.8 511.0 169.8 15.5 46.5 316.6 497.5 Services.................................................... Housing.................................................. Household operation.............................. Electricity........................................... Natural g a s......................................... Telephone........................................... O ther.................................................. Transportation services......................... Motor vehicle leases........................... Other................................................... Medical services.................................... Recreation services.............................. Personal business services................. Financial services.............................. O ther.................................................. Other services....................................... 1,858.4 541.5 202.9 66.7 31.1 40.0 3,527.7 850.1 377.6 103.9 32.8 141.8 487.6 79.7 242.8 94.4 147.4 170.8 2,616.2 696.2 259.8 83.2 29.5 62.6 85.9 173.4 5.5 168.1 710.9 145.0 363.2 154.2 209.0 267.0 251.3 37.(j 213.6 903.9 227.0 554.8 222.7 332.4 362.3 4,784.5 1,070.2 579.2 137.7 30.8 296.2 142.5 318.5 49.1 269.2 1,174.9 408.1 759.0 292.5 467.4 488.3 Residual3........................................................ -35.6 -20.5 -68.7 -789.4 .0 .0 95.5 6.2 66.2 124.7 — — 86.2 1.6 1 Undefined because of denominator with value zero. 2 Not applicable. 3 The residual is the difference between the first line and the sum of the most detailed lines. 6 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 100.8 1980-90 1990-2000 20 0 0 -1 0 3.4 3.4 3.5 5.7 5.0 3.5 3.1 10 .1 6.3 3.2 4.1 52.1 43.7 6.3 2.4 4.2 6.6 6.1 4.8 (1) (’) 5.3 2.5 3.1 2.1 2.0 4.7 5.5 1.9 1.8 -3.0 -2.3 4.0 3.4 3.5 2.5 2.5 2.2 -.5 4.6 2.6 3.4 (2) (2) 3.8 6.2 4.1 5.0 3.6 4.6 .6 -1.9 5.7 4.6 3.0 2.0 3.8 2 .2 1.1 8.5 1.6 3.8 2 1 .2 2.4 2.4 4.6 4.3 3.7 4.7 3.1 22.1 7.4 5.1 3.1 5.3 3.6 2.3 4.3 2.2 1.1 .8 8.5 5.0 3.1 2.3 4.4 2.9 -.6 7.6 3.5 2.4 2.7 2.3 2.7 6.0 3.2 2.8 3.5 3.0 Note : Dash indicates data not available. S ources: Historical data, Bureau of Economic Analysis; projected data, Bureau of Labor Statistics. furniture was exceptionally strong, Brisk home sales during that period, especially from late 1998 through 2000, contrib uted to strong demand. In the long run, demographics play an important role in the demand for household furniture, which is projected to continue to grow strongly, but not as rapidly as during the 1990-2000 period. Those in the 35-44 age group— the largest segment o f the population, which tends to spend the most on home furnishings—reached a peak in 2000. Esti mates based on projections of the current population indicate that, beginning in 2001, the group will reverse the trend, and its spending on furniture will gradually decline. By 2010, the 45-54 age group will replace the 35-44 age group as the larg est 10-year age cohort.4 The household formation rate is expected to hold at 1.1 percent annually over the projection period, the same rate experienced during 1990—2000.5 For these reasons, an annual rate of growth of 5.1 percent is projected for spending on household furniture over the 2000-10 period, compared with 6.3 percent during 1990-2000. Ophthalmic products. Personal consumption expenditures for ophthalmic products have been increasing due to the de mographic effects of an aging population that requires more eyewear than younger age groups do. In addition, growing income may allow consumers to buy multiple pairs of contact lenses or eyeglasses. Presently, laser vision corrections are used by a relatively small share of the population, but this new high-tech eye surgery is likely to become more popular in the future. In turn, laser surgery would dampen demand for eyewear, at least for some of the population. A net annual rate of growth of 3.1 percent is projected for spending on eyewear over the 2000-10 period, compared with 2.4 percent between 1990 and 2000. Consumer nondurable goods. During the past several dec ades, expenditures for nondurable goods, such as food and clothing, have increased at a significantly slower pace than spending on durable goods. As family incomes rise, spending on these short-term consumable necessities also rises, up to a point, after which spending tends to increase less rapidly than rises in income, although the latter increases do enhance de mand for higher quality products. Food and clothing. Over the past 10 years, convenient prepacked food items, as well as bottled water, grew consider ably in popularity. Expenditures on the largest nondurable category, food and beverages, are projected to increase 2.3 percent annually from 2000 to 2010,0.3 percentage point faster than the annual growth rate posted for the 1990-2000 period. By contrast, spending on clothing and shoes as a share of total nondurable goods has declined over time, reflecting de creases in relative prices. As a result, demand for clothing and shoes is expected to increase at a slower rate over the projec https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis tion period. A 4.3-percent annual rate of growth is projected during the 2000-10 span, compared with 4.7 percent and 5.5 percent in the 1980—90 and 1990—2000 periods, respectively. Gasoline and fuel oil. Spending on gasoline for automo biles and on fuel oil for home heating grew at a relatively slow pace during the 1970s and early 1980s, due to high energy costs. Those same high costs led the way, however, toward energy-conserving homes, appliances, and autos, further con serving our scarce energy resources. In contrast, during the 1990s, demand for gasoline gradually increased, spurred in large part by the rosy economy and by sharply falling gaso line prices. The trend of decelerating prices for fuel lasted almost the entire decade, until recent rises driven by increas ingly tight supplies. Real consumption expenditures on gaso line and oil increased at 1.9 percent yearly between 1990 and 2000, compared with a 1.8-percent average annual growth rate for the 1980-90 period. The b l s projection has assumed a moderately downward trend in both real and nominal imported oil prices over the 2000-10 period. Oil prices are projected to decline from a nominal $27.68 or a real $25.87 per barrel in 2000 to a nominal $26.63 or a real $20.19 per barrel in 2010, far below the 1980 peak of a nominal $59.54 or a real $33.97 per barrel.6 As a result, personal consumption of gasoline and motor oil is projected to increase at a rate of 2.2 percent between 2000 and 2010, while expenditures for fuel oil and coal are pro jected to grow much more slowly— only 1.1 percent annually over the same period. Drugs and medicines. People in the United States enjoy the best health care in the world, but it comes at a high price, and drugs are the fastest-growing piece o f the country’s medical bill. Between 1985 and 2000, drug expenditures more than doubled, from $64 billion to $139.9 billion. In the next decade, with millions of baby boomers pushing into their sixties, consumer spending on drugs is expected to provide a strong market and solid demand for both prescription drugs and over-the-counter medicines. Also, rising standards of living are expected to boost the demand for better health care and, in turn, to shift the demand toward newer and more expensive medications. As a result, demand for drugs and medicines is projected to grow rapidly, about 8.5 percent per year between 2000 and 2010, compared with the already high growth of 5.7 percent annually posted in the 1990-2000 period. Consumer services. Over the past 30 years, expenditures for consumer services, such as housing and medical care, have represented the largest share of total consumption. For instance, the share of consumer spending allocated to serv ices was about 55 percent in 1970 and increased to 58.2 per cent in 1980 and 58.5 percent in 1990. In the past 3 years, consumer services’ share of spending trimmed down slightly, Monthly Labor Review November 2001 7 U.S. Economy but still held steady between the 56- and 57-percent mark. With spending on consumer services projected to grow at a rate of 3.1 percent annually from 2000 to 2010, its share of total consumption is expected to be 54.5 percent in 2010, or more than one-third of total real g d p . Housing and household operation. Demographics have a notable influence on housing services.7 As the household formation rate slowed over the 1990-2000 decade, spending on housing services also slowed, growing at a rate that was 0.5 percentage point slower than during the 1980-90 period. In contrast, spending on household operation grew 1.3 per centage points faster from 1990 to 2000 than it did over the 1980-90 period. Among the categories of household opera tion, electricity demand outpaced demand for natural gas during the past 10 years.8 This is attributed to a significant jump in new homes equipped with central air-conditioning and heating, along with a relatively prolonged hiatus on new natural-gas installations during the 1980s. For nonenergy household operations, expenditures on telephone services contributed the strongest growth, largely reflecting increases in the share of U.S. households with telephones, in the aver age number of lines per household, and in the use of cellular phones. From 1990 to 2000, demand for telephone services rose at an annual 8.5-percent rate of growth. Over the long run, as noted earlier, demographics largely determine the demand for housing services. The current population projection implies that the number of households will grow at a rate of 1.1 percent from 2000 to 2010, only a slight decline from the 1.2 percent experienced during the 1990-2000 period. As a result, a stable rate of growth for housing services is foreseen over the projection horizon— about 2.3 percent per year between 2000 and 2010, compared with 2.0 percent posted in 1990-2000. In contrast, a faster growth is anticipated for the category of household opera tion expenditures— about 4.4 annually over the projection horizon, compared with 3.8 percent during 1990-2000. In the category of household operation, telephone services will likely continue its past trend, growing at a rapid rate of 7.6 percent per year over the 2000-10 period. Medical services. A major contributor to overall growth in consumer spending for services is the growth of medicalcare expenditures. Consumer spending for medical services increased 3.8 percent per year during the 1980-90 period, resulting in medical services overtaking housing services as the largest category of personal consumption expenditures for the first time during the 1990s. Over the past decade, the rapid displacement of traditional fee-for-service plans by managed-care plans created a degree of price stability and slowed the rate at which costs of health care were rising. In addition, the Balanced Budget Act of 1997, which reformed medicare and medicaid payments to health care providers, 8 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 assisted in keeping the rate of growth for health care costs low. By contrast, the growing number of elderly in the popu lation, as well as advances in medical technology, has re sulted in a greater demand for health services, particularly home care and outpatient services. Spending on medical serv ices grew at a slower, but still respectable, rate of 2.4 percent per year between 1990 and 2000. Over the coming 10 years, due to the importance of demographic factors, spending on medical services is expected to expand at a rate of 2.7 percent annually. Recreation services and personal business services. As in comes rise, spending on recreation and entertainment serv ices also is increasing. By the same token, expenditures for personal business services, such as investment counseling and legal and accounting services, have been growing in im portance, largely reflecting the increased affluence of con sumers and the burgeoning array of financial management and legal services now available. In the next decade, spend ing on recreation services is expected to become a substan tial source of total services growth, at a rate o f 6.0 percent per year between 2000 and 2010. Spending on personal business services also is expected to exhibit strong growth, 3.2 percent per year from 2000 to 2010. Gross private domestic (business) investment. This com ponent of g d p consists of investment spending for equip ment and software in nonresidential structures,9 purchases of nonresidential structures, purchases of residential struc tures, and changes in business inventories. Historically, pri vate business investment is one of the most volatile elements of final output, responding to the business cycle and to shift ing interest rates and inflation. During the previous two re cessions, private investment declined to 12.5 percent of g d p in 1982 and, further, to 12.4 percent in 1991. Nevertheless, a strong economy boosted investment’s share of g d p to 19.2 percent by 2000, an average growth rate of 6.9 percent a year from 1990 to that year, compared with growth in investment of 3.3 percent between 1980 and 1990. (See table 1.) With good profitability, technological innovation, and solid growth in demand, the b l s projections indicate that investment in equipment and software will grow at a ro bust rate o f 7.4 percent per year from 2000 to 2010. (See table 4.) Purchases o f nonresidential structures are ex pected to grow somewhat faster than the historical pace: 1.9 percent annually over the projection period, compared with 1.5 percent between 1990 and 2000. Demand for fixed residential investment is projected to retreat and settle down after its 2000 record high, to a still healthy 2.3-per cent average annual growth rate. Business investment, in general, is expected to continue to be a great contributor to U.S. economic growth over the next decade, at a rate of 6.2 percent per year for the 2000-10 period. Table 4. Gross private domestic investment, 1980, 1990, 2000, and projected 2010 A v e ra g e an nu al ra te of c h a n g e Billions of c h a in e d 1996 dollars C a te g o ry Gross private domestic investment................................ Fixed nonresidential investment...... Equipment and software................ Light vehicles................................ Computers..................................... Software........................................ Communication equipment........... Other equipment............................ Nonresidential structures............... Public utilities................................. Mining and exploration.................. Building and other structures........ 1980 1990 2000 $655.3 $907.3 $1,772.9 $2,953.8 3.3 466.4 262.2 31.9 641.7 415.7 51.9 14.2 45.9 43.0 282.2 236.1 33.0 21.3 181.9 1,350.7 1,087.4 125.5 290.3 187.6 131.4 433.8 272.8 48.5 23.5 3.2 4.7 5.0 28.1 15.8 4.0 .7 201.8 2,461.6 2,216.3 177.3 1,195.2 613.0 203.6 655.9 330.1 50.3 26.2 254.3 253.5 247.3 6.2 371.4 361.8 9.6 464.5 450.1 15.0 1.2 10.6 29.1 264.2 223.2 47.0 36.0 133.0 2010 Fixed residential investment............ Residential structures.................... Landlord durables............................ 2 10 .1 Change in business inventories....... -10.5 16.5 50.6 58.6 Residual'.............................................. -97.2 -36.0 -91.5 -745.7 205.9 4.3 1 The residual is the difference between the first line and the sum of the most detailed lines. Business computers. Over the past; 10 years, innovations in the computer industry, as well as in other high-tech indus tries, had a fundamental impact on the U.S. economy. Com puters have been facilitating change in business practices for some time, but the explosive growth in the production and use of information technology went much further during the past decade. Spending on business computers increased 35.2 percent per year over the 1990-2000 period. This robust historical trend is expected to continue over the next 10 years. With rapidly declining prices, companies will replace existing and depreciating computers with more advanced and sophis ticated models. Equally important, the development of global information infrastructures through the expansion of the Internet, of local area networks (LANs), and of “intranets” will be a powerful force fueling continuing growth for the business computer industry. Demand for business comput ers is expected to remain high by all standards, with a pro jected real growth rate of 15.2 percent annually for the 200010 period. Software. The rapid growth of the Internet and the parallel emergence of e-commerce are having a profound effect on the software market. Increasing business use of the Internet is influencing the development of existing products and driv ing the creation of new ones, such as web page design. Busi ness investment in software increased 15.1 percent per year between 1990 and 2000. As businesses continue to enhance technology in order to become fully efficient, investment in software is expected to show continued strong growth in the https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 1980-90 .6 -3.5 -5.1 3.2 1.9 1.8 3.8 1990-2000 6.9 2 0 00-1 0 5.2 7.7 6.2 10 .1 7.4 3.5 15.2 9.2 35.2 15.1 11.8 12.6 4.4 1.5 3.9 4.5 4.2 1.9 .4 1.0 1.0 2.3 1.1 3.9 3.9 4.5 2.3 11.8 1.5 2 .2 4.6 S ources: Historical data, Bureau of Economic Analysis; projected data, Bureau of Labor Statistics. next decade, at a rate of 12.6 percent per year from 2000 to 2010. Communication equipment. During the past decade, invest ment in technology—in particular, purchases of communication equipment—posted a banner performance, with an 11.8-percent rate of growth between 1990 and 2000. While the communica tion industry is outpacing most other industries in terms of in novation, the wireless equipment sector is also a significant contributor to the trend. With future Internet access clearly an ticipated to have a significant wireless element, investment in communication equipment is expected to continue to grow. The next decade is projected to see a respectable 4.5-percent rate of growth in communication equipment. Nonresidential structures. Between 1980 and 1990, nonresidential building construction suffered greatly from the over building of office and commercial buildings. For the most part, the oversupply has disappeared since 1988. Accordingly, the b l s projection envisions a resumption in the growth of non residential construction, at a rate of 1.9 percent annually over the 2000-10 period, changing only modestly from patterns established in the decade of the 1990s. The largest subcat egory of nonresidential construction, buildings and other structures, is anticipated to grow faster than the overall cat egory, with an average annual growth rate of 2.3 percent dur ing the same 10-year projection interval, as the 1998 highway bill continues to encourage spending. In contrast, the projec tions for 2000-10 indicate lackluster investment in two other Monthly Labor Review November 2001 9 U.S. Economy subcategories: public utilities, with a slow growth of 0.4 per cent per year, and mining and exploration, with an annual growth of 1.1 percent. Fixed residential structures. Housing markets have been surprisingly strong during the past decade. With the expand ing economy, rising family wealth, and relatively low interest rates, housing starts reached a record high of 1.65 million units in 1999, from a low of 1.01 million units in 1991. Even more impressive in 2000 was the 67.4 percent of American families that owned a home, up from 63.9 percent in 1990. While interest rates clearly influence the short-term timing of home purchases, demographics are the primary determi nant of long-term housing activity. The baby bust that oc curred in the United States between 1965 and 1976 will lead to declines in the 35^44-year-old population by 2010, tradition ally thought of as the prime home-buying age group. As a result, housing starts are expected to rise only modestly, to 1.79 million units in 2010, resulting in investment in residential Table 5. structures growing at a slower 2.3 percent per year from 2000 to 2010, compared with 3.9 percent for the 1990-2000 period. Exports and imports. Globalization and international com petition have played an important role in U.S. economic ac tivity. During the 19°0s, increasing exports drove g d p growth. So did imports: The strong U.S. dollar and falling foreign commodity prices in emerging markets helped keep the Nation’s inflation low and combined with other factors to trigger strong growth in consumer spending. However, in creased globalization has also brought new challenges to the U.S. economy, including a widening of the trade deficit in total goods and services, which ballooned to a record $364.0 billion in 2000 in nominal terms, or $399.1 billion in real dol lars, up from the 1990 figure of $71.4 billion in nominal terms, or $56.5 billion in real dollars. (See table 5.) As a share of g d p , exports increased from 6.8 percent in 1980 to 8.6 percent in 1990 and 12.3 percent in 2000, while imports’ share of g d p increased from 6.7 percent in 1980 to 9.4 percent in 1990 and Exports and imports of goods and services, 1980, 1990, 2000, and projected 2010 A v e ra g e a n nu al ra te of c h a n g e Billions of c h a in e d 1996 dollars C a te g o ry 2010 1980 1990 2000 Exports of goods and services...... $333.4 $575.7 $1,133.2 $2,393.7 Goods...................................................... Foods, feeds, and beverages............. Industrial supplies and materials.......... Capital goods, except autos................ Computers.......................................... Civilian aircraft and p a rts.................. O ther................................................... Autos and parts..................................... Consumer goods................................... Other merchandise exports.................. Services.................................................. 238.9 44.7 86.9 56.0 26.9 48.5 28.3 25.1 14.8 89.0 393.2 44.4 111.7 124.8 12.3 40.9 79.1 39.8 48.1 32.4 183.4 836.1 60.0 168.2 394.9 85.6 43.1 271.5 78.3 89.8 45.9 299.3 1,821.2 91.4 228.4 1,123.1 406.0 78.2 740.4 154.5 182.7 103.3 591.7 Residual1.................................................. -31.8 -16.5 - 8.6 -182.9 Imports of goods and services...... 326.3 632.2 1,532.3 Goods...................................................... Foods, feeds, and beverages............. Industrial supplies and materials.......... Petroleum and products...................... O th e r................................................... Capital goods, except autos................ Computers.......................................... Civilian aircraft and p a rts.................. O th e r................................................... Autos and parts..................................... Consumer goods................................... Other merchandise imports.................. Services.................................................. 260.6 20.9 118.1 51.5 55.0 18.5 497.9 30.4 142.4 59.5 83.6 1,315.6 49.4 254.5 Residual2.................................................. Trade deficit............................................ 1990-2000 20 00-1 0 5.6 7.0 7.8 5.1 7.8 3.1 4.2 4.3 3.1 -.1 2.5 8.3 28.5 4.3 5.0 3.5 6.7 8.1 12 .2 11.0 16.8 7.5 21.4 .5 13.1 7.0 6.4 3.6 5.0 3,282.7 6.8 9.3 7.9 6.7 3.8 1.9 1.4 4.3 17.0 50.1 8.5 13.7 10 .2 8.4 2.3 2.7 35.2 136.6 167.9 451.7 152.6 23.9 279.3 192.5 293.5 80.9 218.7 2,954.5 61.9 331.6 96.6 234.8 1,428.6 670.2 36.7 824.0 322.8 858.9 148.0 352.8 -6.7 -21.5 - 12.6 -323.9 7.1 -56.5 -399.1 -889.1 1.0 19.1 52.5 49.8 12.4 65.6 88.8 11.6 13.5 68.9 10 1.6 112.8 November 2001 86.0 8.1 6.8 8.5 11.0 7.6 5.0 6.0 3.8 7.2 17.7 29.4 5.8 15.0 6.1 10.6 7.0 7.4 8.4 7.1 1.2 3.4 12 .2 6.6 10.0 15.9 4.4 11.4 5.3 11.3 8.7 4.8 4.9 2 1.6 CO CO .2 6.0 1 The residual following the detailed categories for exports is the difference between the aggregate of “exports of goods and services” and the sum of the figures in the separate categories for exports of goods and services. 2 The residual following the detailed categories for imports is the difference 10 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 1980-90 6.2 between the aggregate of "imports of goods and services” and the sum of the figures in the separate categories for imports of goods and services. S ources: Historical data, Bureau of Economic Analysis; projected data, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Table 6. Federal Government receipts and expenditures, 1980, 1990, 2000, and projected 2010 Billions of current dollars A v e ra g e an n u al ra te of c h a n g e Percent distribution C a te g o ry 1980 1990 2000 2010 Receipts................................. Personal tax and nontax paym ents........................... Corporate profits ta x ....... Contributions to social insurance....................... Indirect business ta x ....... $522.8 $1,055.7 $2,046.8 $2,968.7 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 250.3 70.3 473.6 118.1 1,009.5 234.7 1,495.5 232.3 47.9 13.5 44.9 49.3 11.5 50.4 7.8 162.6 39.7 400.1 63.9 691.5 1,121.5 119.4 31.1 7.6 37.9 11 1.2 6.1 33.8 5.4 Expenditures.......................... Defense consumption......... Nondefense consumption.... Transfer payments............. To persons........................ Social Security.............. Medicare......................... Other............................... To foreigners..................... Grants-in-aid........................ Medicaid............................ O th e r............................... Net interest p a id .............. Net subsidies....................... Wage accruals less disbursements................. 576.6 145.3 63.7 223.8 219.0 118.6 35.6 64.9 4.8 72.3 14.3 58.1 58.6 12.9 1,228.7 309.0 2,731.7 461.3 248.4 1,404.4 1,393.0 662.2 517.5 213.3 11.4 472.0 265.4 206.6 94.3 51.4 100.0 100.0 25.2 25.1 9.0 37.1 36.2 19.9 31.6 1,828.3 321.9 171.8 779.3 765.3 401.4 -215.9 148.0 14.0 245.6 119.4 126.2 262.9 46.8 (1) .1 .0 .0 Surplus/deficit........................ Surplus/deficit as percentage of gross domestic product .. -53.7 -173.0 218.6 237.0 -1.9 -3.0 2 .2 1.4 111.0 455.3 445.4 244.1 107.9 93.3 10.0 111.4 43.3 68.1 210 .6 Data not available. jumped to 16.6 percent by 2000. (See table 1.) In any long-term projections program, the international trade sector is the most difficult to predict. The key to the Bureau’s 10-year outlook for U.S. trade is increasing global accessibility and international competition. With the world assumed to become more open to trade, the share of g d p ac counted for by both exports and imports is expected to grow apace, and the dollar is expected to remain moderately strong throughout the projection period, but not so strong as to significantly weaken anticipated export growth. Exports are projected to grow at a 7.8-percent annual rate between 2000 and 2010, compared with 7.0 percent per year during the 1990—2000 period. Exports of goods are expected to lead the way with an 8.1-percent annual rate of growth during the coming 10-year period, while exports of services are anticipated to grow at a rate of 7.1 percent. (See table 5.) Imports are projected to grow at a rate of 7.9 percent annually over the 2000-10 projection period, 0.1 percentage point higher than the projected growth rate for exports, but lower than the 9.3-percent annual rate of growth for imports over the 1990-2000 span. Imports of goods are expected to grow at 8.4 percent per year, and a 4.9-percent annual rate of growth is projected for imports of services during the 2000-10 period. As a result, net exports (exports minus imports) are projected https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 1980 1990 2000 11.2 2010 1990-2000 20 0 0 -1 0 7.3 68 3 ft 6.6 53 79 71 40 -| 37.8 4.0 9.4 4.9 56 5.7 5 n 100.0 100.0 17.6 9.4 42.6 41.9 7.9 7.8 5.7 7.4 7.4 7.5 11.7 3.7 7.7 4.4 41 4 45 55 56 5.1 7.2 47 34 41 37 3« 8.2 11.8 1.6 10.7 64 13.7 9.4 40 11.3 7.6 .8 .8 22.0 11.8 8.1 .8 12.5 2.5 9.1 3.5 5.5 17.1 13.4 6.5 6.9 14.4 2.6 2.6 16.9 9.1 51.4 51.0 24.2 18.9 7.8 .4 17.3 9.7 7.6 3.5 1.9 .0 .0 .0 11.0 38.8 38.0 20.6 6.2 10.1 10.2 2.2 8.8 19 8 0 -9 0 2 2 .7 6 1 62 51 91 3.7 pn 68 83 5D -9 7 9 S ources: Historical data, Bureau of Economic Analysis; projected data, Bureau of Labor Statistics. to continue to make a negative contribution to the aggregate demand, reaching $889.1 billion in real terms by 2010. Both exports and imports are expected to increase their share of g d p by 2010, to 18.6 percent and 25.6 percent, respectively. (See table 1.) Exports o f goods. Exports of capital goods, led by the com puter component, are anticipated to be the largest growth category of exports over the next decade. As noted earlier, with the assumed favorable foreign-trade conditions, com bined with the more sophisticated global commercial and com munications systems, the computer equipment market is ex pected to continue growing significantly, at a 16.8-percent rate annually over the 2000-10 period. The world market for other high-tech products, such as telecommunications equip ment, also is expected to remain strong during the projection period, as developing countries continue to build their tele communication infrastructures and developed countries in vest in new technologies. Through 2010, all export categories are projected to exhibit strong growth. (See table 5.) Exports o f services. Exports of services have become in creasingly important during the past two decades and have led to an increase in the real trade surplus in services from Monthly Labor Review November 2001 11 U.S. Economy $46.8 billion in 1990 to $80.6 billion in 2000. Strong demand for U.S.-built communications equipment is mirrored by strong demand for communications services. In addition, insurance and financial markets have become increasingly sophisticated in order to meet the needs of the business world emanating from increasing globalization. As a result, the Bureau projects a continued increase in the trade surplus in services, reaching $238.9 billion in 2010. Still, the surplus in services will fail to offset the even larger deficit in goods. Imports o f goods. As with exports, the strongest growth in imports of goods is expected in the category of capital goods. Imports of foreign-built computers are projected to expand at a 15.9-percent average annual rate from 2000 to 2010. These computers will retain a large share of the U.S. computer equip ment market as foreign suppliers use aggressive pricing to compete with U.S. companies. Crude-petroleum imports are projected to increase because of falling domestic produc tion. The domestic share of crude-oil production is expected to continue to decline over the projection period, from 55.2 percent oftotal U.S. demand in 1990 and 38.7 percent in 2000 to an anticipated 34.2 percent by 2010. In turn, petroleum imports are expected to increase from 11.3 million barrels per day in 2000 to 12.7 million barrels in 2010. Oil prices in both real terms and nominal terms are assumed to fall below the recent peak by 2010, and demand for petroleum imports is projected to increase at a rate of 1.2 percent per year during the 2000-10 period. Imports ofservices. Imports of services are expected to grow at a 4.9-percent rate annually over the 2000-10 period, con tinuing the past trend. As business transactions become more and more international, imported services will grow in re sponse to increasing demands by U.S. companies for man agement consulting services and professional business serv ices in overseas markets. Federal Government. During most of the 1980s and the 1990s, the Federal Government faced a large deficit. The ques tion of how to reduce that deficit was a centerpiece of discus sion among economists and policymakers for more than 20 years. In nominal terms, the deficit grew from $53.7 billion in 1980 to $173.0 billion in 1990 and peaked at $297.5 billion in 1992. Between 1993 and 1997, the deficit grew steadily smaller. After 28 years of deficit, in 1998, for the first time since 1969, the budget recorded a substantial surplus of $43.8 billion. In the past 2 years, its surplus increased further, to $119.2 in 1999 and then to $218.6 in 2000. (See table 6.) The surplus accounted for 1.3 percent of nominal g d p in 1999 and 2.2 percent in 2000, its largest share of g d p in more than 40 years. This dramatic change is attributable to an increase in tax re ceipts from an expanding economy, on the one hand, and a decline in expenditures due to the Balanced Budget Act of 12 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 1996, on the other. The macroeconomic model assumes that the Federal budg et surplus will remain through the projection period, account ing for 1.4 percent of g d p by 2010. The b l s projection also anticipates shifts in the composition of Federal expenditures over the 2000-10 period. Transfer payments are projected to rise to a 51.4-percent share of Federal expenditures by 2010, continuing a historical trend that accounted for 37.1 percent of Federal expenditures in 1990 and 42.6 percent in 2000. The primary contributor underlying the growth of transfers is the combined effect of three major entitlement programs: medi care, medicaid, and Social Security. Within the next 10 years, the large baby-boom generation will begin to reach retire ment age and become eligible to receive benefits from medi care and Social Security. In addition, advances in medical technology will probably keep pushing up the costs of pro viding health care. Underlying the demographic changes anticipated for the next decade, spending for medicare and med icaid together will account for a 28.6-percent share of Federal expenditures by 2010, up rather substantially from 12.3 percent in 1990 and 18.3 percent in 2000. Similarly, Social Security’s share is projected to increase to 24.2 percent, rising from 19.9 percent and 22.0 percent in 1990 and 2000, respectively. Federal defense spending. Real defense spending, which includes expenditures for military compensation and for de fense capital goods and gross investment in equipment and structures,10 drifted downward as a share of g d p over the past decade. Whereas real defense spending represented 10.9 percent of g d p in 1969, it totaled only 3.8 percent in 2000. (See table 1.) Defense spending levels declined absolutely over the 1988-98 period, as the military’s compensation was re duced and purchases of weapons were postponed. Cuts in force levels also entailed retiring some older equipment with out replacing it. In 1999, however, real spending on defense reversed its decade-long decline and started to rise slightly, due mainly to increases in consumption o f capital goods and investment in equipment and software. On the basis of De fense Department estimates, the Bureau has assumed that military force levels will gradually decline through 2005 and remain fixed through the rest of the proj ection period.11 Still, spending on weapons procurement is expected to increase throughout the period in order to refurbish and replace large blocks of equipment initially acquired during the buildup of the 1980s. In addition, defense spending on research-anddevelopment technology programs for future weapons is ex pected to rise over the projection period.12 As a result, real defense spending is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.2 percent from 2000 to 2010, reaching $392.7 billion the latter year. (See table 7.) Federal nondefense spending. Real nondefense spending, which accounts for the spending on salaries o f Government Table 7. Government consumption expenditures and gross investment, 1980, 1990, 2000, and projected 2010 A v e ra g e annual ra te of c h a n g e Billions of c h a in e d 1996 dollars C a te g o ry 1980 1990 2000 2010 $1,020.9 $1,387.3 $1,572.6 $1,935.4 3.1 1.3 426.8 292.7 267.7 157.8 37.5 80.2 30.8 606.8 443.2 369.7 172.9 61.2 135.0 73.2 545.9 349.0 294.5 120.9 62.6 3.6 4.2 33 .9 5.0 5.4 9.0 -1 1 14 -2 4 -2 2 1 2 5 54.7 627.6 392.7 310.6 116.8 83.5 114.0 87.2 134.7 120.4 79.5 7.0 196.7 154.2 79.5 26.4 234.7 158.1 70.2 47.2 19 15 .5 2.0 o 32.8 15.9 163.0 140.1 83.2 13.3 -2.5 44.8 23.5 48.7 42.9 State and local government consumption and investment......................... Consumption.............................. Compensation............................. Capital consumption............................. O th e r............................ Gross investment...................... 595.1 494.2 433.9 37.7 41.9 100.4 781.1 638.9 507.1 52.7 81.4 142.2 Residual1..................................... -35.4 -.7 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment......................... Federal Government consumption and investment......................... Defense consumption and investment.... ..... Consumption...................... Compensation............................. Capital consumption.................................. O th e r........................... Gross investment......................... Nondefense consumption and investment......... Consumption........................ Compensation................................... Capital consumption........................... Change in inventories.................... Other ............................ Gross investment.......................... 1.0 1 The residual is the difference between the first line and the sum of the most detailed lines. employees and on administrative expenses of all Federal non defense programs, is assumed to increase at a slower pace of 1.8 percent per year between 2000 and 2010, compared with its 1.9-percent annual rate of growth between 1990 and 2000. This assumption leads to a projected nominal growth aver aging 4.5 percent per year for all nondefense spending be tween 2000 and 2010, below the 4.9-percent annual growth from 1990 to 2000. State and local governments. Real spending by State and local governments is projected to increase 2.5 percent annu ally from 2000 to 2010,0.3 percentage point below the annual growth posted for the 1990—2000 period. As a percentage of real g d p , State and local government spending declined over the past two decades, from 12.1 percent in 1980 to 11.6 per cent in 1990 and 11.1 percent in 2000. This decreasing trend is expected to continue to 2010, when the share of g d p repre sented by State and local government spending is projected to be 10.2 percent. (See table 1.) In nominal terms, consump tion expenditures are expected to continue to account for the largest component o f total State and local spending in 2010, but their share of total spending is projected to decline from https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 110.8 19 80-9 0 1990-2 000 2 0 0 0 -1 0 2.1 -3.5 3 2 -2 0 2 9 -2.9 3 4.8 19 1 8 1 0 .3 6.6 - 4 7.1 1 2 6.0 50.8 82.8 3.2 4.0 9 4 6.2 6.8 1,026.3 821.4 577.0 84.8 161.8 205.0 1,307.5 982.4 623.7 152.3 231.7 331.8 2.8 2 6 1.6 2 8 2 fi 2 5 1 8 8 6D -4.5 -56.6 3.4 69 3.5 13 4.9 71 3.7 37 4.9 S ources: Historical data, Bureau of Economic Analysis; projected data, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 82.6 percent and 78.1 percent in 1990 and 2000, respectively, to 71.4 percent in 2010. (See table 8.) In contrast, an increased level of transfer payments due to increases in medical care services and retirement pensions is expected to keep the share of transfer payments rising, from 19.3 percent in 1990 and 22.7 percent in 2000 to 28.4 percent in 2010. Unlike the Federal Government, State and local govern ments cannot run budget deficits for any length of time, as their expenditures are tied closely to their available revenues. The b l s model assumes that State and local government re ceipts of grants-in-aid from the Federal Government for the medicaid program will grow at a rate of 8.3 percent from 2000 to 2010, well above the growth of any other revenues during the same period. Still, the 8.3-percent figure represents a siz able decline from the category’s 10.7-percent annual rate of growth over the 1990-2000 period. In co m e From 1990 to 2000, labor income accounted for a stable por tion of total personal income. Wage and salary disbursements in the private sector, however, the largest segment of labor Monthly Labor Review November 2001 13 U.S. Economy income, increased considerably as a share of total personal income, from 56.2 percent in 1990 to 58.1 percent in 2000. (See table 2.) The b l s projections anticipate that this increasing trend in wages and salaries will continue through the projec tion period, reaching 59.3 percent in 2010. In contrast, busi ness-related personal income, another major component of personal income, which has drifted downwards as a percent age of total personal income over the past 10 years, is pro jected to trim down to 25.1 percent in 2010, from 27.9 percent in 1990 and 26.9 percent in 2000. Labor income’s net share of total personal income is expected to increase modestly, from 64.6 percent in 2000 to 65.0 percent in 2010. Besides these traditional sources of income, personal in come received from transfer payments has increased in im portance over the past decades. Between 1990 and 2000, transfer payments rose as a share of personal income from 12.1 percent to 12.9 percent. The Bureau projects that the share will continue to rise until it accounts for 14.1 percent in 2010, reflecting both rising per capita medical costs and an increase in the older population, the most regular users of medicare programs. Traditionally, personal consumption is the largest compo nent of how people spend their incomes, and its share of income expenditures has increased over time. The b l s projec tions anticipate that the historical trend will continue and the share will rise to 82.7 percent of personal income in 2010, up from 78.1 percent in 1990 and 80.9 percent in 2000. As in recent years, people are expected to keep spending their in comes, resulting in a positive, but very low, personal savings level in 2010.13 On a per capita basis, nominal disposable income is pro jected to increase at an average annual rate of 4.8 percent from 2000 to 2010, reaching a level of $40,768 in the latter year, a gain of more than $ 15,000 over the projection span. In real terms—that is, chained 1996 dollars—per capita income is projected to grow 2.6 percent per year from 2000 to 2010, up from a 1.7-percent rate of growth between 1990 and 2000. Thus, the Bureau expects its projections to be characterized by a long-term improvement in the real standard of living, at least as measured on the basis of growth of disposable per sonal income. Em ploym ent The unemployment rate fell for eight straight years, from 7.5 percent in 1992 to 4.0 percent in 2000, the lowest reading in 30 years. Although it is difficult to predict whether the tight labor market of the recent past will persist, the b l s model has as sumed an unemployment rate of 4.0 percent in 2010, the same rate as in 2000. (See table 9.) Overall, civilian household em ployment is projected to increase by 1.1 percent per year from 2000 to 2010, or 1.62 million persons per year. The result is that more than 16 million employed persons will be added to the economy over the 10-year projection period. Total employ ment measured on a nonfarm establishment basis is expected to grow at a rate of 1.4 percent between 2000 and 2010, from 131.8 million to 152.0 million, an increase of 20.2 million jobs.14 The civilian labor force is projected to grow at a rate of 1.1 percent per year from 2000 to 2010, the same rate of increase as that attained over the preceding 10-year period. This translates State and local government receipts and expenditures, 1980, 1990, 2000, and projected 2010 Table 8. A v e ra g e an nu al ra te of c h a n g e Percent distribution Billions of current dollars C a te g o ry 19 9 0 -2 0 0 0 2 0 00-1 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 1 9 80-9 0 Receipts......................................... Personal taxes............................ Taxes on corporate profits......... Social insurance contributions.... Indirect business taxes............. Grants-in-aid from Federal Government............................ Medicaid.................................. Other grants............................. $316.6 53.9 14.5 3.6 172.3 $663.4 136.1 22.5 $1,222.7 278.7 36.8 100.0 100.0 3.0 1.6 10.1 .8 383.4 651.6 20.5 3.4 1.5 57.8 100.0 22.8 100.0 17.0 4.6 10.0 $2 ,1 1 1 .8 421.0 33.2 14.8 1,170.8 53.3 .7 55.4 7.7 9.7 4.5 10.9 8.3 72.3 14.3 58.1 111.4 43.3 245.6 119.4 126.2 472.0 265.4 206.6 22.8 16.8 6.5 10.3 20.1 22.3 4.4 8.2 6.8 4.5 18.3 9.8 10.3 12.6 11.8 1.6 10.7 6.4 8.3 5.0 Expenditures.................................. Consumption.............................. Transfer payments.................... Medical ca re ............................ Other........................................ Net interest paid......................... Subsidies less current surplus ... Less dividends received........... 307.8 260.4 51.2 24.9 26.3 -5.4 660.8 545.8 127.8 78.2 49.6 -6.3 -6.3 1,189.8 929.0 270.7 204.4 1,933.7 1,381.0 549.4 456.5 92.9 18.4 -14.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 82.6 19.3 8.1 11.8 7.5 71.4 28.4 23.6 4.8 5.0 4.0 7.3 8.4 3.4 - 1.0 - 1.0 1.0 .6 .0 .0 .0 -. 8 .0 12 .1 6.6 1.6 10 .1 8.5 -1.7 .5 78.1 22.7 17.2 5.6 7.9 7.7 9.6 6.1 84.6 16.6 State and local surplus................. 8.8 S ources: 1.6 .1 68.1 66.2 .2 -.3 -9.2 .4 2.7 32.8 1.1 54.4 178.0 Historical data, Bureau of Economic Analysis; projected data, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 14 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 19.9 9.8 5.6 4.2 .0 - 1.0 3.9 5.4 6.0 5.5 7.8 7.2 2.9 -26.9 3.9 7.2 -11.3 28.6 -.7 .0 6.3 7.4 5.0 4.6 4.1 18.4 Labor supply and factors affecting productivity, 1980, 1990, 2000, and projected 2010 A v e ra g e annual ra te of c h a n g e Levels C a te g o ry Labor supply (in millions, unless noted): Total population............................................ Population aged 16 and o ld e r............................. Civilian labor fo rce ......................................... Civilian household employment........................... Nonfarm wage and salary employment.............. Unemployment rate (percent).......................... Productivity: Nonfarm labor productivity (1992 = 100)............. S ources: 1980 1990 2000 228.0 172.7 107.0 99.3 90.4 250.3 192.8 125.9 118.8 109.4 7.2 82.00 2010 1980-90 1990-2000 2000-1 0 275.7 213.1 140.9 135.2 131.8 300.3 236.7 157.7 151.4 152.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.9 1.3 1.9 5.6 4.0 4.0 -2.4 -3.3 -.1 95.28 116.23 153.54 1.5 2.0 2.8 1.1 1.6 1.8 1 1 1 1 1.1 1.4 Historical data, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of labor Statistics; projected data, Bureau of Labor Statistics. into an increase of almost 17 million over the projection span.15 The Bureau of the Census projects that the total U.S. population will increase at a 0.9-percent rate of growth annually over the 2000-10 period, 0.1 percentage point lower than the rate of growth between 1990 and 2000. The Census Bureau also esti mates that the population aged 16 and older will increase at a rate of 1.1 percent over the projection span, 0.1 percentage point higher than the rate of growth in the earlier period. seen. The Bureau anticipates continued high productivity growth at a sustainable rate of 2.8 percent per year over the 2000-10 period, compared with 2.0 percent between 1990 and 2000. This expected solid productivity growth in the aggre gate economic projections is consistent with the continued strong growth of capital stocks resulting from the projected rates of business investment, especially in efficiency-enhanc ing equipment and computer software.16 Productivity Major assum ptions Productivity, measured as output per hour in the private non farm business sector, has demonstrated very strong gains since 1995. After almost two decades of growing about 1.5 percent per year, productivity soared to a 2.5-percent annual growth rate from 1995 through 2000. That rise has been a crucial factor in helping the United States enjoy an optimal combination of rapid expansion, low unemployment, dormant inflation, rising profits, and respectable wage gains. Histori cally, in periods of strong economic growth, gains in produc tivity accelerated as business orders increased, allowing work ers and machines to be used at lull efficiency. However, the surge in U.S. productivity growth after 1995 is not simply the result of strong overall economic growth. Rather, it occurred at a time when the economy already was enjoying a high rate of utilization of resources. In fact, economic data suggest that almost none of the acceleration in productivity after 1995 is due to adjustments for responses to the business cycle. One reason—though perhaps not the only one— explaining that phenomenon is that the accumulating advances in new tech nology and its applications have engendered a pronounced rise in rates of return on high-tech investment, which has led to a stepped-up pace of capital spending and increased pro ductivity growth. Over the next 10 years, it is uncertain whether the structural acceleration in productivity that emerged in 1995-2000 will con tinue, but some shift to a higher level of productivity is fore- https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The aggregate economic projections presented in this article have been developed in the context of the macroeconomic model provided by DRI • WEFA, Inc., of Lexington, Massachu setts. The company’s Comprehensive Quarterly Model of the U.S. Economy comprises over 2,100 variables descriptive of the economy, of which 234 are exogenous assumptions—that is, variables whose values must be provided to the model in order for it to calculate a solution for a given period of time. One of the purposes of the sensitivity analysis discussed in the next section is to identify that subset of the 234 exog enous assumptions which comprises the most important ones in the determination of g d p , its demand makeup, and the level of employment necessary to produce the value of g d p that has been identified. These more critical exogenous assump tions are presented in table 10 for variables falling into three major categories: energy-related variables, tax-related vari ables, and fiscal-policy-related variables. A fourth category of assumptions affecting the results, demographics, is discussed shortly, but is not presented in table 10, because these as sumptions have already appeared in table 9. Among the energy-related assumptions, the most impor tant is the refiners’ acquisition price for crude oil, expressed in dollars per barrel. In the aggregate economic model, the level of g d p determines the level of energy demanded by the economy; the price of crude oil determines the level of domes tic production, and the residual amount of the energy demand Monthly Labor Review November 2001 15 U.S. Economy Table 10. Major assumptions affecting aggregate projections, 1980, 1990, 2000, and projected 2010 A v e ra g e annual ra te of c h a n g e Billions of c h a in e d 1996 dollars (unless otherwise no ted ) Exgenous variables Energy related:. Refiners’ crude oil acquisition cost (dollars per barrel)........ Electric utility fuel use—coal share ( as percentage of total fuel u se )................................................................. Fuel efficiency, all autos (miles per gallon).......................... Tax related: Effective Federal personal tax rate...................................... Effective Federal corporate tax rate.................................... Effective Federal social insurance tax ra te ......................... Federal gasoline tax (cents per gallon)................................. Fiscal policy related: Defense compensation......................................................... Other defense consumption expenditures............................ Defense gross investment expenditures............................. Nondefense compensation................................................... Other nondefense consumption expenditures..................... Nondefense gross investment expenditures....................... Federal housing subsidies (current dollars)......................... Federal transfer payments, medicare.................................. Federal grants-in-aid, medicaid....................................*....... Federal grants-in-aid, other than medicaid............................ 19 80-9 0 1 9 9 0 -2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 -1 0 $26.63 -4.2 2 .2 -0.4 51.7 19.9 49.3 21.3 .4 3.6 -.2 1.3 -.5 .7 22.9 31.7 14.3 19.5 20.9 29.8 13.4 19.5 - 1.0 -1.7 120.9 116.8 114.0 87.2 70.2 50.8 82.8 26.4 329.8 169.1 150.8 2000 2010 $22.20 $27.68 50.8 12.4 52.9 17.6 23.2 40.1 2 1.0 1980 1990 $33.97 11.8 33.7 14.5 4.0 10.6 157.8 80.2 30.8 79.5 32.8 15.9 5.5 95.6 38.3 106.5 172.9 135.0 73.2 83.2 44.8 23.5 15.5 141.9 56.9 79.1 110.8 54.7 79.5 48.7 42.9 19.8 195.8 108.3 112.6 .9 -.9 2.1 -. 6 -.2 -.7 10.3 6.3 .0 .9 5.4 9.0 .5 3.2 4.0 10.9 4.0 4.0 -2.9 -3.5 - 2.0 -2.9 -.4 .9 -.3 .3 4.8 - .6 - 1.2 .4 6.2 6.8 2.5 3.3 2.9 5.4 4.6 3.0 6.6 3.6 S ources: Historical data, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S Geological Survey, Energy Information Administration, Federal Highway Administration; projected data, Bureau of Labor Statistics. not met by domestic production is, by assumption, met by imports of crude petroleum. This particular assumption is drawn from annual energy projections prepared by the U.S. Department of Energy,17 which expects the dollar value of a barrel of crude oil to stabilize gradually after a recent spike; a moderately downward trend in oil prices is anticipated over the coming decade. Also important to the determination of domestic fuel consumption is the fuel efficiency of the Nation’s automotive fleet,18 which is expected to rise gradually to an average of 21.3 miles per gallon by 2010, an increase of 0.7 percent each year over the coming decade. Tax-related assumptions affect Federal Government rev enues. Effective Federal personal tax rates increased signifi cantly from 21.0 percent of personal income in 1990 to 22.9 percent by 2000. Reflecting the recently passed 10-year tax cuts, a gradual decrease in this rate is expected to occur over the next decade. In the b l s projections, it is assumed that the effective personal tax rate will drop to 20.9 percent in 2010, noticeably lower than that in 2000. The effective corporate profits tax rate, defined as corporate profits tax revenues di vided by corporate pretax profits, is assumed to continue its decades-long downward trend throughout the projection pe riod, from 33.7 percent in 1990 to 31.7 percent in 2000 to an anticipated 29.8 percent by 2010. Federal social insurance tax rates are based on mandated rates, which are slated to decline 16 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 to 13.4 percent by 2010. Finally, the Federal gasoline tax, ex pressed in cents per gallon, grew sharply from its 4-cent level in 1980 to 19.5 cents per gallon in 2000. The model assumes that after 2000 there will be virtually no increase in gasoline taxes, at least at the Federal level. Turning to fiscal-policy-related assumptions, it should be noted that defense compensation is expected to fall in real terms from 2000 through 2010, while the size of the Armed Forces is assumed to decline through 2005 and remain fixed by 2010. More than offsetting this decline in defense compen sation are assumed real increases in other defense consump tion spending and in defense gross investment, as it becomes necessary to replace or improve the equipment available to the Armed Forces. On the nondefense side, real spending on compensation is expected to decrease mildly over the 2000— 10 period as well, but the other nondefense categories— ex penditures for other consumption and for gross investment— are assumed to increase over the same projection horizon. As regards other fiscal-policy-related assumptions, Fed eral grants-in-aid to State and local governments are projected to slow their growth relative to the last 10 years, while the Federal housing subsidies program is assumed to show a mod erate growth over the projection period. The sharp contrast of a rapid growth is expected in the Federal Government’s medicare program, reflecting an increase in numbers in the older popu- lation. Demographic variables detailing the U.S. population are drawn from Census Bureau projections and have been de scribed elsewhere in this article. Monetary policy levers al low for ample money supply growth to fuel the expansion of the economy without getting in the way of that expansion. Finally, the projections are based on an assumption that there will be no major wars, oil embargoes, significant price shocks, or serious natural catastrophes of a magnitude that would affect the long-term growth potential of the economy during the projection period. In sum, the projections anticipate a growth economy, including a steady expansion of the labor force, strong productivity growth, a favorable outlook re garding inflation, and good opportunities for jobs. Sensitivity of projections While the use of a macroeconomic model to prepare projec tions may appear to be a precise and scientific operation, the Table 11. v a ria b le ^ 0 " 96 development of an economic projection is actually filled with uncertainty. The b l s assumptions cover a broad range, in cluding certain components of Federal expenditures, tax rates, transfer payments, population levels, oil prices, and other variables that influence the outcome of the projections. Di vergent viewpoints about these assumptions would naturally lead to different economic projection paths. A sensitivity study examining the impact of changes in such “single-variable” assumptions can assist users in identifying results that are most likely to be affected by unexpected developments in key assumptions. In general, two types of assumptions are required in the macroeconomic model in order to develop a set of aggregate economic projections. First, the values of the exogenous vari ables are assigned outside of the model and remain fixed throughout the projection. Second, the values of those be havioral endogenous variables which are determined by the model’s equations, but which are used as critical measures of projection, must be evaluated carefully for their impacts on projected values for 2010 resultin9 from a 10-percent increase in selected exogenous Disposable in c o m e , c h a in e d 1996 dollars House hold e m p lo y ment Unem ploy m e n t rate Housing starts 0.0 0.0 0.0 .0 -.1 0.0 0.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 0.0 .1 -.3 0.0 .0 .0 .1 .7 .0 .1 .0 .0 .1 .0 -.2 .0 -1.2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 -.5 -.1 -.3 .0 .3 .0 1.5 .0 -1.4 -.1 -6.7 .0 -.4 .0 -1 .6 .0 -.2 .1 -.1 1.2 -.2 2.3 .4 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .0 -.3 -1.1 .0 .1 .3 .0 -.2 -.8 .0 .0 .0 Federal expenditures (changed 10 percent): Defense compensation........................................... Other defense consumption expenditures............. Defense gross investment expenditures............... Nondefense compensation..................................... Other nondefense consumption expenditures........ Nondefense gross investment expenditures......... Federal housing subsidies....................................... -.2 -.1 .0 -.1 .0 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 -.1 .0 .0 .0 -.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 1.1 .5 .2 .7 .2 .1 .1 -.8 -.4 -.2 -.5 -.1 -.2 .0 2.9 1.6 1.1 1.7 .6 .9 .2 .6 .3 .3 .4 .1 .2 .1 Grants and transfer payments (changed 10 percent): Federal transfer payments, medicare..................... Federal grants-in-aid, medicaid............................... Federal grants-in-aid, other than medicaid............. -.1 -.3 -.1 .6 .4 .1 .0 -.1 .0 .9 2.2 .5 -.9 -1.7 -.5 4.9 7.5 2.2 1.1 1.5 .5 Other (changed 1 percent): Population aged 16 and o ld e r.................................. Population aged 65 and o ld e r................................... Nonborrowed reserves at Federal Reserve banks .. 1.2 -.2 .0 .8 -.1 -.2 1.4 -.2 -.1 -4.1 .9 2.1 2.4 -.6 -.5 -5.6 1.8 -.5 -.9 .3 -.8 Exogenous variables Energy related (changed 10 percent): Domestic share of U.S. crude oil acquisitions..... Electric utility fuel use, coal share......................... Fuel efficiency, all autos........................................ Tax related (changed 10 percent): Effective Federal corporate tax ra te ..................... Effective State and local corporate tax rates....... . Effective Federal social insurance tax rate.......... . Effective State and local social insurance tax rate Employer share of Federal Social Security contributions......................................................... Employer share of State and local Social Security contributions......................................................... Federal gasoline ta x ................................................ State and local gasoline ta x .................................... GDP, ch ain ed 1996 dollars Y ield on 1 0 -y e a r U.S. Treasury notes E xchange rate (index) See notes at end of table. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monthly Labor Review November 2001 17 U.S. Economy Table 11. Continued— Percent change in projected values for 2010 resulting from a 10-percent increase in selected exogenous variables' Personal consum ption expenditures, Gross priva te do m e stic investm ent, Foreign tra d e , c h a in e d 1996 dollars c h a in e d 1996 dollars c h a in e d 1996 dollars G overnm ent, c h a in e d 1996 dollars Exogenous variables N onresidential Durables Energy related (changed 10 percent): Domestic share of U.S. crude oil acquisitions.......................... Electric utility fuel use, coal share................................. Fuel efficiency, all autos............ Tax related (changed 10 percent): Effective Federal corporate tax rate.................................... Effective State and local corporate tax rates.................. Effective Federal social insurance tax rate.................................... Effective State and local social insurance tax ra te ................... Employer share of Federal Social Security contributions............. Employer share of State and local Social Security contributions............................. Federal gasoline ta x .................... State and local gasoline ta x ....... Federal expenditures (changed 10 percent): Defense compensation.............. Other defense consumption expenditures.......................... Defense gross investment expenditures.......................... Nondefense compensation........ Other nondefense consumption expenditures......................... Nondefense gross investment expenditures.......................... Federal housing subsidies.......... Grants and transfer payments (changed 10 percent): Federal transfer payments, medicare.................................. Federal grants-in-aid, medicaid ... Federal grants-in-aid, other than medicaid........................... Other (changed 1 percent): Population aged 16 and o ld e r..... Population aged 65 and o ld e r..... Nonborrowed reserves at Federal Reserve banks........................ 1 0.0 .0 -.1 .0 N on Services durables 0.0 .0 0.0 0.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 -.1 -.1 -.1 .0 -.6 .0 .0 .0 -.1 0.0 -.7 .0 .0 Equipment Structures a n d softw are .0 -.2 .0 -.1 Residential Exports Imports Fe deral S tate a n d lo cal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 -.4 .0 .0 .0 .0 -.2 .0 .0 -.1 .2 .2 .2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .5 .6 .8 .8 -.5 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 -.5 -.4 .2 .0 -.2 -.2 -.2 -.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 -.1 .1 .1 .3 .3 .0 .0 .0 -.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 -.3 .0 -.3 -.3 -.7 -. 8 -.3 .1 2.0 -.2 .0 -.1 -.1 -.3 -.4 -.1 .2 1.8 .0 -.1 -.2 .0 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.2 -.2 -.2 -.4 -.5 .0 -.2 .1 .0 2.0 1.2 .0 -.1 -.1 .0 .0 .0 -.1 -.1 .0 .1 .8 .0 -.1 .0 .0 .0 -.1 .0 -.1 .0 -.2 .0 -.2 .0 -.1 .0 .1 .0 .7 .0 .0 .0 -.3 - 1.0 .2 .3 .2 -.3 -.5 -.7 -. 8 -.5 .2 -1.4 - 1.6 -. 6 .4 .5 .0 .0 .0 .2 -.2 .0 -.1 -.2 -.5 -.5 -.2 .1 .0 1.1 2.0 1.1 -.1 1.1 -.1 .9 -.2 2.2 -.5 2.5 -.3 -.6 .2 -.1 .2 .0 .0 .0 .9 -.1 -.3 -.2 -.2 .2 -.4 -.3 .7 .0 .0 .0 -.1 projected data, Bureau of Labor Statistics. One percent where noted. S ources : Historical data, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Geological Survey, Energy Information Administration, Federal Highway Administration; key endogenous results. By their very nature, the exogenous variables are the most amenable variables to sensitivity test ing, so they receive the majority of attention. The endog enous variables are generally less visible and far more diffi 18 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 cult to assess for sensitivity purposes, because they are more a function of the work that goes into preparing for the projec tions. For that reason, the sensitivity analysis in this section focuses on the assumptions behind the exogenous variables. As stated earlier, the macroeconomic model used in the aggregate economic projections includes 234 exogenous variables. The sensitivity analysis examines mainly those key assumptions listed in the first column of table 11. In each case, the single exogenous variable in question is increased by 10 percent from the baseline projection for the 2000-10 period, and a new solution to the model is generated. Obvi ously, in certain cases, such as the population aged 16 years and older, a 10-percent change is not realistic, so a 1-percent change is applied. Through the percent increases in the exogenous vari ables, the table shows the results of the percent changes in the projected values of selected target variables, such as real g d p and its major components, real disposable income, the unemployment rate, and interest rates. The analysis reveals that the macroeconomic model appears to be least affected by changes in the energy sectors. For example, a 10-percent in crease in the domestic share of U.S. crude-oil acquisitions has no influence upon real g d p and other selected target vari ables. Turning to tax-related exogenous variables reveals that, in general, increases in taxes would reduce real g d p through lowered demand. The lone exception is that a 10-percent in crease in the effective Federal social insurance tax rate sharply lowers interest rates by 6.7 percent and reduces the exchange rate by 1.6 percent. Enough investment spending and strong exports therefore overcome the reduction in personal con sumption expenditures for durable goods. A higher level of Federal defense compensation results in slightly lower real g d p . The reason is that, through its effects bls on the Federal budget, the increase in defense compensation has the effect of increasing interest rates. The increased inter est rates, in turn, reduce real g d p , especially in the areas of residential structures and nonresidential structures. In a simi lar fashion, although increases in Federal transfer payments for medicare or Federal grants-in-aid for medicaid would lead to higher disposable income, they would have a counteract ing effect on interest rates. The net result, though, is that the effect on interest rates would prove stronger, reducing per sonal consumption on durable goods, as well as business investment in both nonresidential and residential structures. Exogenous variables related to population illustrate a strong impact on real g d p and income. In the model, a 1.0percent increase in the segment of the population aged 16 and older results in a 1.2-percent increase in real g d p on the de mand side, in addition to a 0.8-percent increase in real dispos able income on the supply side, due to increases in the size of the labor force. Also, a 1.0-percent increase in the same 16and-older group implies a larger home-buying population, re sulting in a 2.4-percent increase in housing starts, accompa nied by a 2.5-percent rise in demand for residential structures. In sum, the key results of the macroeconomic model are more heavily influenced by some exogenous assumptions than by others. Increases in either exogenous Federal ex penditures or transfer payments have a relatively minor ef fect on real g d p , although increases in transfer payments would lead to higher disposable personal income. An in crease in the population older than 16 would significantly boost employment.1 ri N otes 1 Real gdp and its com ponents are stated in 1996 chain-weighted dollars. Chain weighting replaces the past practice o f computing those indicators by reference to fixed base-year prices with an averaging technique. The chain-weighted m ethodology calculates the prices o f goods and services in order to use weights that are appropriate for the specific periods or years being measured. As a result, for a particular year, the most detailed GDP components do not add up to their chainweighted aggregates, and the chain-weighted aggregates do not add up to the chain-w eighted real GDP. For more details, see “Preview o f the Comprehensive Revision o f the National Income and Product Accounts: BEA’s N ew Featured Measures o f Output and Prices,” S u rvey o f Current B u siness, July 1995, pp. 31-38; and J. Steven Landefeld and Robert P. Parker, “BEA’s Chain Indexes, Time Series, and Measures o f LongTerm Econom ic Growth,” S u rvey o f C u rren t B u sin ess, May 1997, pp. 5 8 -6 8 . In the current article, discussions o f GDP and its final demand components are couched in terms o f real values, unless otherwise noted. Finally, all historical National Income and Product Account data pre sented in this article are consistent with data published through the August 2001 issue o f the S u rvey o f C u rren t B usiness. income that is not spent on consumption, paid out as interest, or given away to foreigners. The savin gs rate does not, how ever, take into account gains from rising stocks and real-estate values. 4 U.S. population assumptions are based on the Bureau o f the Census m iddle-series resident population projections from 1999 to 2100, ad justed for overseas Armed Forces personnel. (See Frederick W. Hollmann, Tammany J. Mulder, and Jeffrey E. K alian, “M ethodology and A s sumptions for the Population Projections o f the United States: 1999 to 2100,” working paper no. 38 (U.S. Bureau o f the Census, Population D ivision, January 2000).) 5 See “Projections o f the Number o f Households and Families in the United States: 1995 to 2010,” C u rren t P o p u la tio n R e p o rts, Series P 2 5 1129 (U .S. Department o f Com m erce, Bureau o f the C ensus, April 1996). The Census Bureau w ill release a new set o f U.S. household projections consistent with the new U.S. population projections. 2 The BLS aggregate econom ic projections are developed in the context o f the m acroeconom ic model provided by the dri -wefa fore casting group, formerly Data Resources, Inc. ( dri). The assumptions are based on long-term trend growth assumptions, and no attempts are made to forecast business cycle fluctuations. 6 Each year, the Energy Information Administration o f the Depart ment o f Energy publishes a range o f estimates regarding energy supply and demand over the com ing 20 years. The Bureau’s energy assump tions for nom inal world oil prices are based on the Department o f Energy results. (See A n n u a l O u tlo o k 2 0 0 1 w ith P r o je c tio n s to 2 0 2 0 (U .S . Departm ent o f Energy, Energy Inform ation A dm inistration, December 2000).) The real imported oil prices are derived from their nominal prices, deflated by the gdp chain-weighted deflators. 3 The savings rate is defined as the percentage o f personal after-tax 7 Housing services include an imputed rental value o f owner-occu- https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monthly Labor Review November 2001 19 U.S, Economy pied dw ellings, rent from tenant-occupied dw ellings, and the rental value o f farm dwellings and other housing, such as hotels and motels. 8 The recent energy crisis in California due to shortages o f elec tricity and a record surge in residential natural-gas prices caused by escalating demand during a colder-than-usual winter is considered to be a short-term development. Actually, natural-gas prices are already fa llin g from January 2 0 0 0 ’s record high levels. In the lon g term, energy prices are assumed to be settling down. 9 In Decem ber 1999, the National Income and Product Accounts recognized business expenditures for com puter software as in vest ment. Previously, only software embedded in equipment by the pro ducer o f that equipm ent was counted as investm ent. B u siness pur chases for softw are for ow n -accou n t production (that is, software produced by a business for its own use) were classified as inputs to production. For further reading and information, see “A Preview o f the 1999 Com prehensive Revision o f the National Income and Prod uct Accounts: D efinitional and C lassificational Changes,” S u rv e y o f C u rre n t B u sin ess, August 1999, pp. 7-20; and “Improved Estimates o f the National Income and Product Accounts for 1959-98, Results o f the Com prehensive R e v isio n ,” S u r v e y o f C u r r e n t B u s in e s s , D ecem ber 1999, pp. 1 9 -3 7 . 10 In January 1996, the N ational Incom e and Product A ccounts recogn ized governm ent expenditures on equipm ent and structures as in v estm en t. A c c o r d in g ly , govern m en t p u rch ases are n ow d i vid ed into co n su m p tion exp en d itu res and gross investm ent. This approach treats governm ent purchases o f fixed assets in a manner m ore sy m m etric to the treatm en t o f su ch a ssets in the p rivate sector. For further d etails, see “Preview o f the Comprehensive Re vision o f the National Income and Product Accounts: R ecognition o f G overnm ent Investm ent and Incorporation o f a N ew M ethodology for Calculating Depreciation,” S u rv e y o f C u rren t B u sin e ss, September 1995, pp. 3 3 -4 1 . In December 1999, the National Income and Prod uct Accounts reclassified governm ent purchases o f own-account pro d uction o f softw are (that is, softw are produced by a governm ent a g en cy for its ow n u se) from govern m en t consum ption exp en d i tures to gross governm ent investm ent. This shift has no e ffe c t on gdp . (S ee footn ote 9 for further readings.) 11 D efense Department spending and force-level estimates through the year 2005 are published in N a tio n a l D e fe n se B u d g e t E s tim a te s F o r F Y 2 0 0 1 (O ffice o f the Under Secretary o f D efen se (Com ptrol Monthly Labor Review 20 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 ler), March 2000). 12 For a detailed discussion o f defense spending, see “Chapter Four: Options for National D efense,” B u d g e t O p tio n s (The Congress o f the United States, Congressional Budget O ffice, February 2001), pp. 9 3 188. 13 See note 3 for a discussion o f personal savings and the savings rate. 14 Employment on a household basis, the concept o f em ployment used in the aggregate economic projections discussed in this article, is a count o f persons who are working or actively seeking work. The histori cal estimates for household employment are derived from the Current Population Survey, a survey carried out for the Bureau o f Labor Statistics by the U.S. Bureau o f the Census. The concept o f employment on an industry level o f detail, discussed elsewhere in this issue o f the R eview , is a count o f jobs and is based on an establishment-level survey called the Current Employment Survey. Since 1994, these two measures have di verged sharply. For an explanation o f the recent increase in this employ ment gap, see Chinhui Juhn and Simon Potter, “Explaining the Recent Divergence in Payroll and H ousehold Employment Growth,” C u rre n t Issu es in E conom ics a n d F inance, Federal Reserve Bank o f N ew York, vol. 5, no. 16, December 1999, pp. 1-6. 15 For a further discussion o f the labor force, see Howard N Fuller ton, Jr., and Mitra T oossi, “Labor force projections to 2010: steady growth and changing com position,” this issue, pp. 2 1 -3 8 . 16 For a further, detailed discussion o f labor productivity and em p loym ent, see Jay M. Berm an, “Industry output and em p loym en t projections to 2 0 1 0 ,” this issue, pp. 3 9 -5 6 . 17 See note 6 for a discussion o f the Bureau’s energy assumptions. 18 This measurement o f the fuel efficiency o f the automotive fleet includes autom obiles, sport utility veh icles, and other sm all trucks purchased for personal use. 19 For a more com plete discussion o f the sensitivity o f the aggre gate econom ic projections, see Norman C. Saunders, “S ensitivity o f bls econ om ic projections to exogen ou s variab les,” M o n th ly L a b o r R e view , December 1986, pp. 2 3 -2 9 . A like analysis appears in Thom as Boustead, “The U .S. econom y to 2 0 0 6 ,” M o n th ly L a b o r R e v ie w , N ovem ber 1997, pp. 6 -2 2 . Labor Force Em ploym ent outlook: 2000-10 Labor force projections to 2010: steady growth and changing composition The labor force will grow steadily as the population and labor force ages; diversity will continue to increase Howard N Fullerton, Jr. and Mitra Toossi Howard N Fullerton, Jr. is a senior dem ographic statistician and Mitra Toossi is an economist in the Office of O ccupational Statistics and Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis he civilian labor force is projected to in crease by 17 million over the 2000-10 pe riod, reaching 158 million in 2010.' This 12.0-percent increase is slightly greater than the 11.9-percent increase over the previous 10-year period, 1990-2000, when the labor force grew by 15 million. The projected labor force growth will be af fected by the aging of the baby-boom genera tion, persons bom between 1946 and 1964. In 2010, the baby-boom cohort will be ages 46 to 64, and this age group will show significant growth over the 2000-10 period. The median age of the labor force will continue to rise, even though the youth labor force (aged 16 to 24) is expected to grow more rapidly than the overall labor force for the first time in 25 years. A closer view of the 2000-10 labor force re veals that certain demographic groups are pro jected to grow more rapidly than others. For women, the rate o f growth in the labor force is expected to slow, but it will still increase at a faster rate than that of men. (See table 1.) As a result, the share of women in the labor force is projected to increase from 47 percent in 2000 to 48 percent in 2010. The number of men in the labor force is projected to grow more rapidly even though the aggregate labor force participation rate for men is projected to continue declining (from 74.7 per cent in 2000 to a projected 73.2 percent in 2010). Race or Hispanic origin groups have shown and are projected to continue to show— widely varied growth rates because of divergent rates T of population growth in the past. Among race and ethnic groups, the Asian and other labor force is projected to increase most rapidly. By 2010, the Hispanic labor force is projected to be larger than the black labor force, primarily be cause o f faster population growth. Despite slower-than-average growth and a declining share of the total labor force, white non-Hispanics will continue to make up more than two-thirds of the work force. This article describes the labor force projections, made by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for 136 age, sex, race, or Hispanic origin groups.2 First, it dis cusses changes in the labor force that are attrib uted to changes in labor force participation rates or to population changes. It includes a historical per spective, comparing two past decades with the projected decade. Then, it examines changes in the labor force based on the dynamics resulting from persons entering, leaving, or staying in the labor force. Finally, it reviews the demographic implica tions of projected changes in the age composition of the labor force and population. The labor force projections are prepared by combining projections o f the population pro duced by the Bureau of the Census with labor force participation rate projections made by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.3 Consequently, the resulting labor force reflects changes in both projections. Changes in the labor force are better understood if they are decomposed into the two components and, therefore, each o f these subjects is discussed separately. Monthly Labor Review November 2001 21 Labor Force Table 1. Civilian labor force by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1980, 1990, 2000, and projected 2010 [Numbers in thousands] G roup 1980 1990 2000 P ercent c h a n g e C ha nge Level 2010 198090 19902000 200010 198090 Total, 16 years and older..................... 106,940 125,840 140,863 157,721 18,900 15,023 16,858 17.7 223 3,366 - 1 1 .1 16 to 2 4 ................... 25,300 22,492 22,715 26,081 -2,808 25 to 54 ................... 66,600 88,322 99,974 104,994 21,722 11,652 5,020 32.6 -13 3,149 8,471 - 0.1 55 and older............. 15,039 15,026 18,175 26,646 Annual growth ra te (p e rc e n t) P ercent distribution 1990- 20002000 10 1980 1990 2000 11.9 12.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.0 23.7 62.3 14.1 17.9 70.2 11.9 16.1 71.0 12.9 66.6 2 1.0 14.8 5.0 46.6 2010 1.6 1990- 2 0 0 0 2000 10 - 1.2 2.9 1.1 .1 1.2 1.1 16.9 .0 1.9 1.4 .5 .9 Men........................... Women.................... 61,453 69,011 75,247 82,221 7,558 6,236 45,487 56,829 65,616 75,500 11,342 8,787 6,974 9,884 12.3 24.9 9.0 15.5 9.3 15.1 57.5 42.5 54.8 45.2 53.4 46.6 52.1 47.9 1.2 2.3 .9 1.4 .9 1.4 W hite........................ Black......................... Asian and other1 ...... 93,600 107,447 117,574 128,043 13,847 10,127 10,470 10,865 13,740 16,603 20,041 2,875 2,863 3,439 2,476 4,653 6,687 9,636 2,177 2,034 2,950 14.8 26.5 87.9 9.4 81.2 12.7 2.3 85.4 10.9 3.7 83.5 43.7 8.9 20.7 44.1 87.5 20.8 4.7 6.1 1.4 2.4 6.5 .9 1.9 3.7 .9 1.9 3.7 Hispanic origin......... 6,146 10,720 15,368 20,947 4,574 4,648 5,579 Other than Hispanic origin..................... 100,794 115,120 125,495 136,774 14,326 10,375 11,279 74.4 43.4 36.3 5.7 8.5 10.9 13.3 5.7 3.7 3.1 14.2 9.0 9.0 94.3 91.5 89.1 86.7 1.3 .9 .9 11.6 5.3 6.0 81.9 77.7 73.1 69.2 1.1 .5 .6 White non-Hispanic 87,633 97,818 102,963 109,118 10,185 5,144 1 The “Asian and other” group includes (1) Asians and Pacific Islanders and (2) American Indians and Alaska Natives. The historical data are 6,155 Population growth trends and changes in the demographic composition of the population reflect births, deaths, and mi gration to and from the United States. Table 2 provides four snapshots of the population at 10-year intervals over the 1980-2010 period. The four population pyramids in chart 1 also illustrate the changing composition of the population. The civilian noninstitutional population will continue to in crease over the 2000-10 period, at a slightly faster rate of growth than the previous 10 years. This analysis of changes BLS projections and the 2000 census The 2000-10 projections in this issue of the Monthly Labor Review are not based on the recently completed 2000 census because the Current Population Survey (CPS) the source of the historical data on the labor force for these articles and the basis of the b l s labor force projections does not reflect the 2000 census and because a population projection based on the 2000 census is not available. Labor force participation rates at the detailed level are not expected to change signifi cantly. The overall level of the labor force, however may go up as much as a million or more. Neither change would be expected to have a substantial impact on the analysis pre sented here, b l s and the Census Bureau expect to introduce estimates based on the 2000 census starting with the Janu ary 2003 CPS. The Census Bureau plans to release a popula tion projection based on the 2000 census in late 2002. November 2001 10 .2 11 .8 derived by subtracting “black” and “white” from the total; projections are made directly, not by subtraction. Population projections 22 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 13.2 16.5 198090 in the civilian noninstitutional population is based on the Cen sus Bureau’s middle population projection scenario.4 (For in formation about the 2000 census and these projections, see the box.) Minority groups that have grown the fastest in the past— Asians and others and Hispanics—are projected to continue to grow much faster than white non-Hispanics. The 16- to 24-age group will grow more rapidly than the overall population—a turn-around that began in the mid-1990s. The 55- to 64-age group will increase by 11 million persons over the 2000-10 period—more than any other group. Those ages 35 to 44 will be the only group to decrease in size; this is the baby bust following the baby boom. Four demographic events have had a significant impact on shaping the changes in growth rates of the population and its composition by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin over the 1980-2000 period, and for the most part, will affect the labor force in 2010: • The birth dearth of the late 1920s and early 1930s • The baby boom of the late 1940s through the early 1960s • The modest increase in births from the late 1970s through the early 1990s • The massive migration to the United States that started in the 1970s and at present, continues The effect of the birth dearth is reflected in the declining number of persons aged 55 to 64 from 1980 to 1990 and the Table 2. Civilian noninstitutional population by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1980, 1990, 2000, and projected 2010 [Numbers in thousands] Level C ha nge A nn ual grow th rate P ercent distribution G roup 1980 Total, 16 years and older....... 167,745 16 to 2 4 .......... 37,178 16 to 1 9 ....... 16,543 20 to 2 4 ....... 20,635 25 to 54 .......... 84,698 25 to 3 4 ....... 36,558 35 to 4 4 ....... 25,578 45 to 5 4 ....... 22,563 1990 189,164 2000 2010 1980-90 33,421 14,520 18,902 209,699 233,658 34,453 39,201 16,042 17,851 18,411 21,351 -3,757 -2,023 -1,733 105,777 42,976 37,719 25,081 118,927 122,716 37,417 39,287 44,605 39,535 36,905 43,894 21,419 1990-2000 2000-10 1980-90 1990-2000 20 00-1 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 20,535 1,032 1,522 -491 23,959 1.2 1.0 1.1 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 4,749 1,809 2,940 - 1.1 -1.3 -.9 .3 1.3 2 2.2 1.0 1.1 16.4 7.6 -.3 1.5 9.9 12.3 17.7 7.7 21,079 6,418 12,141 2,518 13,150 -5,559 2.2 1.6 1.2 .3 .5 21.8 11,824 3,789 1,870 -5,070 6,989 - 1.2 1.7 6,886 1.1 -1.4 1.7 3.9 1.3 4.0 55 and older.... 55 to 6 4 ....... 45,870 21,520 49,966 20,720 56,320 23,615 71,740 34,846 4,096 -800 6,354 2,895 15,420 11,231 .9 -.4 65 and older.... 65 to 7 4 ....... 75 and o ld e r. 24,350 15,365 8,988 29,247 17,648 11,598 32,705 17,809 14,896 36,895 20,591 16,304 4,897 2,283 2,610 3,458 161 3,298 4,190 2,781 1,408 1.8 Men, total........ 79,398 90,377 100,731 112,319 10,979 10,354 16 to 24 .......... 16 to 1 9 ....... 20 to 2 4 ....... 18,282 8,260 10,023 16,667 7,347 9,320 17,305 8,151 9,154 19,716 9,064 10,652 -1,615 -913 -703 638 804 -166 25 to 54 .......... 25 to 3 4 ....... 35 to 4 4 ....... 45 to 5 4 ....... 41,095 17,833 12,400 10,861 51,884 21,117 18,529 12,238 58,244 18,289 21,951 18,004 60,008 19,231 19,298 21,479 10,789 3,284 6,129 1,377 6,360 -2,828 3,422 5,766 55 and older.... 55 to 6 4 ....... 20,021 10,042 21,826 9,778 25,182 11,257 32,595 16,642 1,805 -264 65 and older.... 65 to 7 4 ....... 75 and o ld e r. 9,979 6,660 3,319 12,049 7,776 4,273 13,925 8,075 5,850 15,953 9,406 6,548 Women, total ... 88,348 98,787 108,968 121,338 16 to 2 4 .......... 16 to 1 9 ....... 20 to 2 4 ....... 18,895 8,283 10,612 16,754 7,173 9,582 17,147 7,890 9,257 25 to 54 .......... 25 to 3 4 ....... 35 to 4 4 ....... 45 to 5 4 ....... 43,603 18,725 13,177 11,701 53,893 21,859 19,190 12,843 55 and older.... 55 to 6 4 ....... 25,850 11,478 65 and older.... 65 to 7 4 ....... 75 and o ld e r. 1.2 10.0 8.8 16.8 7.6 9.1 15.2 13.5 55.9 22.7 19.9 13.3 56.7 17.8 21.3 17.6 52.5 16.8 16.9 18.8 2.4 4.0 27.3 26.4 12.8 11.0 26.9 11.3 30.7 14.9 1.2 14.5 9.2 5.4 15.5 9.3 15.8 6.1 15.6 8.5 7.1 50.5 1.4 1.1 .1 2.6 2.5 1.5 .9 11,588 1.3 1.1 1.1 47.3 47.8 48.0 48.1 2,411 913 1,499 -.9 .4 1.3 8.8 - 1.2 -.7 1.0 -.2 1.1 10.9 4.9 1.5 6.0 3.9 4.9 8.3 3.9 4.4 8.4 3.9 4.6 1,764 941 -2,652 3,475 2.4 1.7 4.1 1.2 24.5 27.4 10.6 11 .2 1.2 1.8 7.4 6.5 9.8 6.5 27.8 8.7 10.5 25.7 -1.4 1.7 3.9 .3 .5 -1.3 3,356 1,479 7,413 5,384 .9 -.3 1.4 1.4 2.6 11.9 12.0 4.0 6.0 11.5 5.2 2,070 1,116 954 1,876 299 1,577 2,028 1,331 697 1.9 1.5 .4 3.2 1.4 1.5 5.9 4.0 6.8 3.9 4.0 1.1 2.0 6.4 4.1 2.3 6.6 1.6 2.6 2.8 2.8 10,439 10,181 12,370 1.1 1.0 1.1 52.7 52.2 52.0 51.9 19,485 8,787 10,698 -2,141 - 1,1 1 0 -1,030 2,338 897 1,442 - 1.2 -1.4 - 1.0 .2 1.0 1.3 1.5 8.9 3.8 5.1 8.2 -.3 11.3 4.9 6.3 8.3 3.8 4.6 62,708 20,056 20,237 22,415 39,145 18,204 10,290 3,134 6,013 1,142 2,289 -536 2,025 929 -2,418 3,514 2.1 1.6 1.2 28,139 10,942 60,683 19,127 22,655 18,901 31,138 12,358 393 717 -325 6,790 -2,732 3,465 6,058 2,999 1,416 14,372 8,705 5,668 17,198 9,872 7,325 18,780 9,734 9,045 20,941 11,185 9,756 2,826 1,167 1,657 White, total..... 146,122 Men............... 69,634 W om en......... 76,489 160,625 77,369 83,256 174,428 189,512 84,647 92,361 89,781 97,150 1.1 .3 .5 26.0 28.5 11 .2 3.8 .9 -1.3 1.7 3.9 - 1.1 1.7 7.9 7.0 11.6 10 .1 6.8 8,007 5,846 .9 -.5 1.0 1.2 2.3 3.9 15.4 1,582 -138 1,720 2,161 1,451 711 1.8 .9 1.1 8.6 1.3 -.1 2.1 1.4 14,503 7,735 6,767 13,803 7,278 6,525 15,083 7,714 7,369 1.0 1.1 .8 .8 .9 .9 2.6 .8 .9 .8 .8 Black, to ta l..... M en............... W om en......... 17,824 7,944 9,880 21,477 9,573 11,904 25,218 11,320 13,898 29,877 13,184 16,693 3,653 1,629 2,024 3,741 1,747 1,994 4,659 1,864 2,796 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.8 Asian and other1, total ... M en............... Women......... 3,838 1,842 1,996 7,061 3,434 3,627 10,054 4,764 5,290 14,269 6,775 7,495 3,223 1,592 1,631 2,993 1,330 1,663 4,215 2,010 6.3 6.4 2,205 6.2 3.6 3.3 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.5 Hispanic origin, total.... Men............... W omen......... 9,598 4,689 4,909 15,904 8,041 7,863 22,393 11,064 11,329 30,359 14,837 15,523 6,306 3,352 2,954 6,489 3,023 3,466 7,966 3,772 4,194 5.2 5.5 4.8 3.5 3.2 3.7 3.1 3.0 3.2 203,298 97,483 105,816 15,113 7,627 7,485 14,046 7,331 6,715 15,993 7,816 8,176 Other than Hispanic origin............ 158,147 Men............... 74,709 W omen......... 83,439 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 173,260 187,306 82,336 89,667 90,924 97,639 .9 .8 1.0 .9 .7 .9 .8 .8 .8 8.8 7.0 8.2 8.3 9.2 8.6 5.4 13.9 7.1 3.8 4.4 28.9 9.1 26.8 10.8 8.7 9.6 8.6 14.9 5.8 9.0 14.8 5.9 16.8 7.8 5.2 3.4 9.1 5.2 3.9 9.0 4.6 4.3 9.0 4.8 4.2 87.1 41.5 45.6 84.9 40.9 44.0 83.2 40.4 42.8 81.1 39.5 41.6 10.6 11.4 5.1 6.3 12.0 12.8 4.7 5.9 5.4 6.6 5.6 7.1 2.3 3.7 1.1 1.2 1.8 1.9 4.8 2.3 2.5 2.9 3.2 10.7 5.3 5.4 13.0 6.3 2.9 8.4 4.3 4.2 94.3 44.5 49.7 91.6 43.5 48.1 89.3 42.8 46.6 87.0 41.7 45.3 6.8 5.7 2.8 Monthly Labor Review 6.1 6.6 November 2001 23 Labor Force Table 2 Continued—Civilian noninstitutional population by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1980, 1990, 2000, and projected 2010 [Numbers in thousands] G roup Level 1980 1990 C hange 2000 2010 White nonHispanic....... 136,847 Men................. 65,095 Women............ 71,753 146,535 153,111 70,220 74,104 76,315 79,007 162,064 78,901 83,163 Age of babyboomers....... 16 to 34 26 to 44 36 to 54 46 to 64 1980-90 9,687 5,125 4,562 1990-2000 2 0 00-1 0 1980-90 1990-2000 20 00-1 0 6,576 3,884 2,692 1 The “Asian and other” group includes (1) Asians and Pacific Islanders and (2) American Indians and Alaska Natives. The historical data are derived by small increase for those aged 65 to 74 from 1990 to 2000, and the slow the growth o f the 75 and older group in the 2000—10 period. (See also chart 1.) The second event can be traced by following the movements o f the baby-boom generation through age groups with the greatest increase in each period. For example, the 35- to 44-age group increased most signifi cantly over the 1980-90 period and the 45- to 54-age group had the greatest increase over the 1990-2000 period. For the projected period, 2000-10, persons aged 55 to 64 are expected to have the greatest growth. The population in the age groups that are younger than the baby-boomers (those aged 16 to 24 in 1980-90,25 to 34 in 1990 to 2000, and35 to 44 in the projec tion, 2000-2010) shows declining numbers. From 2000 to 2010, the number of persons aged 35 to 44 is expected to decline by 5.1 million. This same age group increased by 12.1 million dur ing the 1980-90 period, when the baby-boomers were concen trated in that age group. The third demographic event will be reflected in growth of the population aged 16 to 24 from 2000 to 2010—reversing the trend of declining numbers in this age group over the 1980-90 period. This group may be followed in table 2. The fourth event, immigration, has had a significant impact on population growth over the 1980-2000 period and is ex pected to continue to do so from 2000 to 2010. Immigration is assumed to increase slightly between 1999 and 2002 before declining through 2010. To project foreign-bom emigration from the United States, the Census Bureau held detailed de mographic rates constant from the 1980s. Therefore, the level of emigration will rise as the number of older foreign-bom persons, who are most likely to return to their native land, increases due to earlier migration. The effect of a relatively constant immigration trend and increased emigration levels is decreased projected net migration over the period. The de cline is expected to be modest; from a net migration o f980,000 in 2002, to 720,000 in 2010. However, overall net migration still would account for a sizable proportion of the net population 24 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 A nn ual grow th rate 8,953 4,797 4,156 .7 .8 .6 .4 .5 .3 .6 .6 .5 Percent distribution 1980 1990 2000 81.6 38.8 42.8 77.5 37.1 40.3 73.0 35.3 37.7 2010 69.4 33.8 35.6 subtracting “black” and “white” from the total; projections are made directly, not by subtraction. growth over the projected 2000-10 period. The effects of migration on the demographic composition of the population can be seen in two ways in table 2. The first is reflected in the very rapid growth rate o f the Asian and other and Hispanic populations. The projected growth rates of these groups are expected to be greater than their rates in the 1990-2000 period.and much faster than the rates for other groups. The second way migration affects the composition of the population is by age distribution. For example, persons aged 25 to 34 numbered 36.6 million in 1980. Ten years later, this same cohort was even larger, 37.7 million. Similarly, the number of persons aged 25 to 34 in 1990 grew from 43.0 million to 44.6 million 10 years later. The only way these cohorts could increase is through net migration. Because the over whelming reason for migration is the opportunity to work, the population at these ages is affected significantly by migration.1 In addition to those four demographic events, the general effect that mortality has on the composition of the population is significant. Moreover, the longevity of women compared with men is noteworthy. (See table 2 and chart 1.) In 2000, men and women aged 16 to 24 were each 8 percent of the popula tion. However, for persons 75 years of age and older, women made up 4.3 percent of the population and men, 2.8 percent, reflecting the longer life span of women. Labor force participation rates The labor force participation rate—a measure of the propor tion of a population group in the labor force— differs by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin as shown in table 3. Although labor force participation rates for specific groups change over time, the general overall pattern is fairly consistent across age groups, between the sexes, and among race and Hispanic ori gin groups. Chart 1. Population and labor force, by age 1980, 1990,2000 and projected, 2010 [In millions] 1980 Men 12 10 8 12 10 8 6 4 6 4 Men Women 2 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 12 10 8 6 Women 4 2 0 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-59 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Age 2 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2000 8 6 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-59 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Age Men Women 4 0 2010 Men 12 10 [In millions] 1990 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 12 10 8 6 Women 4 2 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 6 8 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-59 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Population 12 10 8 6 4 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 2 0 Age 10-14 5-9 0-4 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Age Monthly Labor Review 0 2 4 10 12 November 2001 25 Labor Force Table 3. Civilian labor force participation rates by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1980, 1990, 2000, and projected 2010 Particip ation rate Percentage po int change (percent) (percent) G rou p 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980-90 1990-2000 20 00-1 0 Total, 16 years and older............. 63.8 66.5 67.2 67.5 2.8 .6 .3 16 to 24 ........................................ 16 to 1 9 ..................................... 20 to 2 4 ..................................... 68.1 67.3 53.7 77.8 65.9 52.2 77.9 66.5 52.3 78.5 -.8 -1.4 -1.5 .6 .1 84.1 84.6 84.8 82.6 85.6 87.1 32.3 59.2 37.1 60.9 56.7 77.2 -3.0 .6 .2 .5 4.9 3.7 5.2 5.8 .6 1.0 1.5 2.5 -.4 1.1 1.2 25 to 54 ........................................ 25 to 3 4 ..................................... 35 to 4 4 ..................................... 45 to 5 4 ..................................... 79.9 80.0 74.9 83.5 83.6 85.2 80.7 55 and older.................................. 55 to 6 4 ..................................... 32.8 55.7 30.1 55.9 65 and older.................................. 65 to 7 4 ..................................... 75 and o ld e r.............................. 11.8 12.8 14.8 -.7 1.0 16.7 4.3 19.1 5.3 22.1 -.2 2.4 5.5 -.5 1.0 .2 Men............................................... 12.5 17.0 4.8 77.4 76.4 74.7 73.2 - 1.0 -1.7 -1.5 16 to 24 ........................................ 16 to 1 9 ..................................... 20 to 2 4 ..................................... 74.4 60.5 85.9 71.8 55.7 84.4 68.6 67.9 52.3 81.2 -2.7 -4.8 -1.5 -3.1 - 2.8 - 1.8 -.7 -.7 -1.4 25 to 54 ........................................ 25 to 3 4 ..................................... 35 to 4 4 ..................................... 45 to 5 4 ..................................... 94.2 95.2 95.5 91.2 93.4 94.1 94.3 90.7 91.6 93.4 92.6 -. 8 - 1.8 - 1.1 - 1.1 -.5 - .8 -1.7 -2.1 -.7 -.3 -.3 88.6 90.9 93.1 92.3 87.8 - .8 55 and older.................................. 55 to 6 4 ..................................... 45.6 72.1 39.4 67.8 39.8 67.3 43.8 67.0 -6.3 -4.3 .4 -.5 4.0 -.3 65 and older.................................. 65 to 7 4 ..................................... 75 and o ld e r.............................. 19.0 24.0 16.3 21.4 7.1 17.5 24.4 19.5 27.7 7.7 - 2.6 - 2.6 -1.7 1.2 2.0 3.0 .9 3.4 -.3 .6 8.8 53.0 82.6 8.0 86.0 83.8 1.8 -2.7 2.2 .2 3.3 4.9 1.7 1.9 2.9 Women.......................................... 51.5 57.5 60.2 62.2 6.0 2.7 2.0 16 to 24 ........................................ 16 to 1 9 ..................................... 20 to 2 4 ..................................... 61.9 52.9 68.9 62.9 51.6 71.3 63.2 51.3 73.3 65.1 52.2 75.7 1.0 .4 -1.3 2.4 -.2 2.0 1.9 .9 2.4 25 to 54 ........................................ 25 to 3 4 ..................................... 35 to 4 4 ..................................... 45 to 5 4 ..................................... 64.0 65.5 65.5 59.9 74.0 73.5 76.4 71.2 76.8 76.3 77.3 76.8 80.4 81.4 80.0 80.0 10.0 8.0 2.8 2.8 10.9 11.3 0.9 5.6 55 and older.................................. 55 to 6 4 ..................................... 22.8 41.3 22.9 45.2 26.2 51.8 31.6 55.2 8.6 9.4 14.8 3.6 17.3 4.0 11 .1 .0 3.4 3.9 6.6 .5 1.4 .8 1.8 65 and older.................................. 65 to 7 4 ..................................... 75 and o ld e r............................. 8.1 11.6 2.5 13.0 2.7 .2 .9 W h ite ............................................ M en............................................. Women........................................ 64.1 78.2 51.2 66.9 77.1 57.4 67.4 75.4 59.8 67.6 73.8 61.6 2.8 - 1.1 .5 - 1.6 2.4 Black............................................. M en............................................. Women........................................ 61.0 70.6 53.2 64.0 71.1 58.3 65.8 69.0 63.2 67.1 3.0 .4 5.1 - 2.0 4.9 Asian and other1 ........................... M en............................................. Women........................................ 64.6 74.5 55.4 65.9 74.9 57.4 66.5 74.9 58.9 67.5 74.8 60.9 1.3 .4 .6 .0 2.0 1.5 Hispanic origin.............................. Men............................................. Women........................................ 64.0 81.4 47.4 67.4 81.4 53.1 68.6 3.4 80.6 56.9 69.0 79.0 59.4 .0 1.2 -.8 5.7 3.8 Other than Hispanic origin........... M en............................................. Women........................................ 63.7 77.1 51.7 66.4 75.9 57.9 67.0 74.0 60.6 67.3 72.3 62.6 2.7 -1.3 White non-Hispanic...................... Men............................................. Women ........................................ 64.0 78.0 51.3 66.8 67.2 74.7 60.3 67.3 72.9 62.0 2.7 -1.5 6.4 76.5 57.8 1 The “Asian and other” group includes (1) Asians and Pacific Islanders and (2) American Indians and Alaska Natives. The historical data are derived by 26 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 68.2 66.2 6.3 6.2 1.9 .6 -1.9 2.7 3.6 5.1 2.7 3.2 5.4 3.5 1.7 2.5 .5 .2 - 1.6 1.8 1.2 - .8 3.0 1.0 -.1 2.0 .4 - 1.6 2.5 .3 -1.7 2.0 .5 .1 - 1.8 2.5 - 1.8 1.8 subtracting “black” and “white” from the total; projections are made directly, not by subtraction.______________________________________________ Age. Labor force participation is relatively low for young persons (aged 16 to 24) because they often have school or child care responsibilities. It rises during the peak working years, ages 25 to 44, and then declines as workers retire. For example, in 2000, the participation rate for persons aged 16 to 19 was 52 percent; for ages 35 to 44, the rate was 85 percent; and for ages 75 and older, the rate dropped to 5 percent. Sex. The labor force participation rates for men have been higher than those of women not only at the aggregate level, but also for every age group. (See table 4.) The trend in the rates for men and women are also different. In general, the rates for women have been rising. In contrast, the rates for men have been declining, except at the older ages. The differ ence in rates by sex also holds across race and Hispanic origin groups, as a later section shows. Rates by age and sex. Changes over time in the aggregate labor force participation rates of men have been consistently down. (See chart 2.) The age-specific activity rates of men have been dropping across age groups with few exceptions. Labor force participation rates for men 65 and older have in creased, starting in 1985. The rates for men, 65 to 74 increased by 3.0 percentage points from 1990 to 2000, reversing a trend that dates back to at least 1890. Prior to 1980, the decreases in the labor force participation rates of older men reflect the increased availability of pen sions and disability awards.6 The decrease in participation over the 1950-80 period for men 65 and older was 26.8 percent age points, with most of the decrease occurring in the 1950s. During the 1970s, the Social Security payments were over adjusted for inflation and the decrease in labor force participa tion for men 65 and older was greater than that in the 1960s. The decrease in participation was much lower in the 1980s, after the inflation adjustment procedure was changed. By the 1990s, participation increased for this group of older men. For men 55 to 64, labor force participation rates started to decrease in the 1960s.7 Some of the 20-percentage point decrease since 1960 for men in this age group has to be attributed to the availability of Social Security to men 62 years of age. By 1994, only half the men age 62 were in the labor force; a decrease from 75 percent in 1970. Since 1994, however, the rate has increased modestly. During the 1950—80 period, defined benefit pension cover age became more widespread. A worker realizes the greatest return on such a pension by retiring as soon as eligible. Dur ing the 1980s, employment-downsizing plans frequently in cluded early pensions and lump-sum payments to older work ers.8 Since then, fewer defined benefit pension programs have been initiated; new pension plans are based on defined contri butions. These plans are not as likely as defined benefit plans to induce early retirement. However, some workers are cov- https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Differenc es in the labor force participation rates of nnen and women, by age, 1980, 1990, 2000, anci projected 2010 P e rc e n ta g e point d iffe re n c e Age Total, 16 years and older 16 to 24 ...................... 16 to 1 9 ................... 20 to 2 4 ................... 25 to 54 ...................... 25 to 3 4 ................... 35 to 4 4 ................... 45 to 5 4 ................... 55 and older................ 55 to 6 4 ................... 65 and older................ 65 to 7 4 ................... 75 and o ld e r............ 1980 1990 2000 2010 25.9 12.5 7.6 16.9 30.2 29.7 30.0 31.3 18.8 8.9 4.2 13.1 19.4 14.5 5.4 11 .0 2.8 .1 22.8 30.8 10.9 12.4 6.3 Reductions in th e differences b e tw e e n m e n a n d w o m e n Total, 16 years and older. 16 to 24 ........................ 16 to 1 9 ..................... 20 to 2 4 ..................... 25 to 54 ........................ 25 to 3 4 ..................... 35 to 4 4 ..................... 45 to 5 4 ..................... 55 and older.................. 55 to 6 4 ..................... 65 and older.................. 65 to 7 4 ..................... 75 and o ld e r.............. 1.6 9.2 14.8 17.0 15.4 20.6 17.9 19.5 16.5 11.8 13.5 15.5 22.6 7.7 8.4 4.4 8.1 9.6 4.5 5.5 10.5 11.7 12.3 7.8 12 .1 11.7 8.4 10.5 3.7 P e rc e n ta g e point c h a n g e 1980-90 1990-2000 2000-10 -7.1 -3.6 -3.5 -3.9 —4.3 -3.5 -2.5 -3.8 —4.6 -3.6 - 2.6 -7.7 -3.0 -7.1 .4 -3.5 - 2.6 -1.5 -3.8 -4.3 -5.3 -3.0 ^t.O -1.4 -3.7 .3 .9 - 10.8 -9.1 - 12.0 - 11.8 -6.3 - 8.2 -3.2 -4.0 -1.9 1.2 .1 -.8 ered by both types of pension plans. We are now in a period of transition from retirement deci sions based on defined benefit pensions to those based on defined contribution pensions. However, once the transition is completed, workers might have to work longer.9 The issue of how much longer people will continue to work is clouded by two issues: manual labor and longer life spans. A small proportion of workers do physically demanding work and may not be able to work more than 30 years, while some portion of the population live longer than others, but work for them would be difficult, if not impossible. In 2000, the normal retirement age for Social Security ben efits began its scheduled increase.10 Because the size of the benefit is lowered for each month a recipient is younger than the normal retirement age, some workers might be induced to continue working. However, for those receiving pensions that are significantly larger than their Social Security benefit, there is likely to be no response to the change in the normal retire ment age requirement. For those workers dependent on Social Security, the lower benefits will require them to work longer or they will have to make do with lower benefits. Table 5 panel a indicates the reductions for early retirement, scheduled over the 2000-22 period and panel b, the inducements to work later, Monthly Labor Review November 2001 27 Labor Force Chart 2. Labor force participation rates for men and women, 1980 and 2000 Percent Percent older scheduled over the 2000-16 period. To illustrate, a person bom in 1957 who retires at age 62 in 2019 will receive 72.5 percent of the primary insurance amount. However, if retirement were de layed to age 66 and 6 months, that person would receive 100 percent o f the primary insurance amount and if that person worked until 67 and 6 months, (table 5 panel b), then he or she would receive 8 percent more. With the repeal in 2000 of the earnings penalty or tax on workers ages 65 to 70, another dis incentive to working is gone.11 For most age groups of men under 55, the drop in participa tion was greater in the 1990-2000 period than that in the 198090 period. There continues to be little research on the long term decrease in participation rates of men aged 25 to 54, a group that our society views as strongly attached to the labor force. Unlike men, the labor force participation rates of women have been increasing across age groups. Women in the 45- to 54-age group increased their participation the most during the 1980-90 period; an increase of almost 11 percentage points. The same cohort of women displayed the greatest increase in participation in the 1990-2000 period, when they were aged 55 to 64. However, for the 2000-10 period, when this cohort will be 65 to 74, they will yield this ranking to a group of younger women,Those aged 25 to 34. Interestingly, men 65 to 74 are 28 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 expected to increase their participation more than women in these ages. Generally, the labor force participation of women and men have been converging, as the lower panel of table 4 and chart 2 indicate. The difference in the aggregate rate is expected to decrease by 15 percentage points over the 1980-2010 period, as the difference drops from more than 25 percentage points in 1980 to 11 points in 2010. In 1980, each of the four age groups of women between ages 25 to 64 had labor force par ticipation rates that were 30 percentage points lower than those of men the same age. By 2000, these differences at least halved and by 2010, they are projected to be no more than a third of the 1980 differences. For teenagers, there was little difference between the sexes in 2000, and by 2010, the partici pation rates are projected to converge. For older men and women, the differences in participation measured by percent age points were smaller, reflecting the significantly lower par ticipation at older ages. Race and Hispanic origin. Differences in labor force par ticipation by race and Hispanic origin are usually not as great as that observed for age and sex. However, changes in labor force rates over time differ among the groups. When partici pation rate changes are combined with different patterns of Table 5. Normal retirement age for social security and the effects of early or delayed retirement 5a. The n o rm al retirem ent a g e , b y y e a r of birth a n d y e a r of atta in in g a g e 62, with th e redu ctio n from th e prim ary insurance am o u n t, 1999 to 2022 Y ear of birth N orm al retirem ent 1937 or earlier... 1938................. 1939................. 1940................. 1941................. 1942................. 1943-54 ........... 1955................. 1956................. 1957................. 1958 ................. 1959................. 1960 and later... 5b. 65 years 65 and 2 months 65 and 4 months 65 and 6 months 65 and 8 months 65 and 10 months 66 years 66 and 2 months 66 and 4 months 66 and 6 months 66 and 8 months 66 and 10 months 67 years A g e 6 2 benefits as p e rc e n t of prim ary insurance am ount Y ear c o ho rt b e c o m e s 62 age 1999 or earlier 80.0 79.2 78.3 77.5 76.7 75.8 75.0 74.2 73.3 72.5 71.7 70.8 70.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005-2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20 2 2 and after D e la y e d retirem ent c red it, b y y e a r of birth Y ear of Birth C re d it p e r y e a r (p e rc e n t) 1924............ 1925-26 ...... 1927-28 ...... 1929-30 ...... 1931-32 ...... 1933-34 ...... 1935-36 ...... 1937-38 ...... 1939—40 ...... 1941-42 ...... 1943 or later 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 The high labor force participation rate for Hispanic males, in part, reflects their age structure. Hispanics have a younger population with a greater proportion at the ages of higher labor force participation. As table 6 shows, the rates for nonHispanic white men are higher at ages 16 to 19 and 25 to 54. The table also shows that Hispanic men have proportionally more young men than the white non-Hispanic population. The aggregate labor force participation rate is the weighted sum of the age-specific rates, in which the weights are the population distribution. If Hispanic men had the age distribution of white non-Hispanic men in 2000, while retaining the labor force par ticipation rates shown in table 6, their aggregate rate would have been 74.1 percent, slightly lower than the rate for nonHispanic white men that year. If white non-Hispanic men, on the other hand, had had the population distribution of His panic men in 2000, their overall participation rate would have been 81.2 percent, higher than their actual rate and above the rate for Hispanic men (80.6 percent). Thus, age distribution, as well as labor force participation rates determine the aggregate labor force rate. Over the 2000-10 period, overall labor force participation is projected to change the rankings for the various age, sex, and race and Hispanic groups: Total Hispanic............. Asian and other.... S ource: Normal Retirement Age (Social Security Administration, De cember 4, 2000), on the Internet at http://www.ssa.gov/oACT/ProgData/ nra.html (visited December 2 0 , 2000). White nonHispanic.......... Black .................. population growth, substantial differences in the future labor force result. The data shown in the lower part of table 3 indicate the variation in labor force participation by race. The following illustration ranks those groups in terms of their labor force participation rates in 2000 (1 is highest labor force participa tion; 4 is lowest): Total Hispanic............. White nonHispanic........... Asian and other.... Black .................. Men Hispanic Women Black Asian and other White nonHispanic White nonHispanic 2 Asian and other Hispanic 3 4 Black Rank 1 Women Black White nonHispanic White nonHispanic Black Asian and other Hispanic Rank 1 2 3 4 For the totals by group, the Asians and others exchange places with white non-Hispanics while Hispanics and blacks retained their places. The rankings for women and men did not change from 2000. Blacks are projected to have the greatest increase in labor force participation— 1.2 percentage points—reflecting the expected 3.0-point gains expected by black women. Labor force rates for all groups of men are expected to continue decreas ing, though the decrease of Asian and other men is not sig nificant. The labor force participation of white non-Hispanics is not expected to change, reflecting offsetting increases and decreases by women and men. Projected labor force participation rates The rankings by race differ by sex. Hispanic men have the highest labor force participation rates, Hispanic women the lowest. For blacks, the situation by gender is reversed, as men have the lowest participation rate and women, the highest. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Men Hispanic Asian and other The labor force participation rate is projected to rise by 0.3 percentage point between 2000 and 2010. Increases in the par ticipation rates are expected to be greatest for the 65- to 74-age group, made up of the pre-baby-boom generation. Unlike the age group in 2000, however, the ages of peak labor force partici pation should be 25 to 34. Thus, the baby-boom generation’s Monthly Labor Review November 2001 29 Labor Force aging by itself will act to slow overall participation growth because they will be older than the age of highest participa tion. For both sexes combined, labor force rates are projected to increase for all age groups. The overall labor force participation rate of men is projected to drop by 1.5 percentage points, slightly less than the decline in the last decade. The overall male rate is a summary of the changes in the age composition of the population and changes in labor force participation for each age as well as the increased race and Hispanic diversity of the male population. For men in the peak ages of labor force participation, 25 to 54, the rates by 5-year groups are projected to decrease slightly over the 2000— 10 period. Because of changes in age composition, however, the rates for the 10-year-age group, presented in table 3, show a greater decline. Older men are expected to continue to have increasing participation (from a 0.4-percentage point change in the 1990-2000 period to a 4.0-percentage point gain in the 2000-10 period for men 55 and older). The increase in the labor force participation rate of women over the past two decades (1980—90 and 1990—2000) has dis played a pattern of slower growth in each successive period. For most age groups, labor force participation growth is pro jected to be greater in the 2000—10 period than in the earlier decade. With the aging of the population, aggregate labor force participation for women should slow, but each of the major groups, 16 to 24, 25 to 54, and 55 and older, is projected to increase their participation more quickly than over the most recent decade. For the 1980-90 and 1990-2000 periods, women aged 20 to 24 show decreases in participation, but in the 2000-10 period, participation for this group is projected to increase. The par ticipation decreases in the earlier decades probably reflect the Table 6. increasing enrollment of young women in school.12 However, over the 2000-10 period, with labor force participation of women enrolled in school rising even as enrollment increases (table 7) and women not enrolled in school also increasing their participation as well, this group is projected to further increase their participation. The results of the greater school enrollment o f young women is reflected in the projections for women 25 to 34, whose labor force participation is projected to increase most strongly over the period. The group expected to have the next greatest increase in participation is aged 55 to 64; members of a cohort who have long experienced sharp increases in labor force participation. Historical ch a n g e s in the labor force Labor force growth over the 1990-2000 period was signifi cantly slower than the rate of growth over the 1980-90 period, when larger numbers of the younger baby-boomers caused high rates of labor force growth and large absolute growth. The labor force grew by 19 million between 1980 and 1990, compared with 17 million over the 1990-2000 period. (See table 8.) The male labor force, because of the entry of the babyboom generation, grew by 12 percent over the earlier period, then by 9 percent between 1990 and 2000. Women increased their numbers by 25 percent over the 1980-90 period, com pared with 16 percent over the latter period. Age. Labor force changes by age over the 1980-90 period were influenced by the baby-boomers and the birth dearth group of the 1930s (chart 1). Between 1980 and 1990, the babyboomers were in the age groups that grew rapidly. Those aged Comparison of labor force participation rates and age composition of Hispanic and white non-Hispanic men, 2000 [Percent] Population com position b y a g e Labor fo rc e p a rtic ip a tio n rate Age Hispanic 16 and 17................................................. 18 and 19................................................. 20 and 2 1 ................................................. 22 to 24 ................................................... 25 to 29 ................................................... 30 to 34 ................................................... 35 to 39 ................................................... 40 to 44 ................................................... 31.8 68.3 45 to 49 ................................................... 50 to 54 ................................................... 55 to 59 ................................................... 60 and 6 1 ................................................. 62 to 64 ................................................... 65 to 69 ................................................... 70 to 74 ................................................... 75 and older............................................. 89.1 85.6 79.4 30 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 86.0 91.3 93.5 94.5 93.8 92.8 68.2 48.5 31.8 18.8 8.4 November 2001 W hite, non-Hispanic 46.9 69.1 78.8 87.7 94.0 95.0 94.3 93.3 91.6 88.0 78.0 66.9 47.6 30.8 18.3 8.2 D ifference (white, non-Hispanic less Hispanic) 15.2 .8 -7.2 -3.6 .5 .5 .5 .5 Hispanic 5.2 5.7 5.2 7.9 12 .1 White, non-Hispanic 3.6 3.6 3.3 4.8 7.8 1 1 .1 8.6 10.6 11.5 10.9 2.5 2.4 -1.4 -1.3 -.9 - 1.0 7.2 6.3 4.2 1.4 1.9 10 .1 - .6 -.2 1.9 2.9 13.4 2.1 8.7 D ifference (white, non-Hispanic less Hispanic) -1.5 - 2.1 -1.9 -3.1 -4.3 —4.8 -. 6 -. 6 2.9 2.5 6.8 2.2 2.6 3.2 4.7 4.3 6.7 1.2 .9 2.7 2.4 3.8 Enrollment of women 16 to 24 in school and labor force participation rate by enrollment status, 1995 and 2000 Proportion en ro lled in school Labor fo rc e p a rtic ip a tio n rate of w o m e n 16 to 24 e n ro lle d in school 2000 1995 G roup 1995 2000 C ha nge Total Total, 16 to 2 4 .... 16 to 19 ........... 20 to 24 ........... 20 to 21 ........... 22 to 24 ........... 44.3 65.3 27.8 38.4 21.3 47.8 68.7 30.0 41.7 21.9 White women Total, 16 to 24 ... 16 to 19.......... 20 to 24 .......... 20 to 2 1 .......... 22 to 2 4 .......... 44.0 64.9 27.6 38.6 20.9 47.3 Black women Total, 16 to 24 ... 16 to 19.......... 20 to 2 4 .......... 20 to 2 1 .......... 22 to 2 4 .......... 3.5 3.5 2.2 3.2 .7 Not Enrolled enrolled Differ in in ence school school 62.3 52.2 70.3 65.5 73.3 50.6 45.3 60.6 58.2 63.2 71.6 65.1 74.1 70.0 76.0 20.9 19.8 13.5 64.9 55.5 72.3 73.4 67.5 75.7 72.2 77.3 19.3 18.5 29.6 42.0 3.3 3.2 1.9 3.5 68.0 54.2 49.0 63.6 61.3 2 1.0 .1 75.0 66.2 25.6 34.3 47.3 69.7 28.0 36.1 3.3 3.5 2.4 20.2 2 2 .2 52.8 39.7 63.7 56.8 67.9 37.0 31.5 48.9 46.2 51.7 44.0 66.2 68.1 Asian and other women Total, 16 to 24 ... 16 to 19.......... 20 to 24 .......... 20 to 2 1 .......... 22 to 2 4 .......... 36.6 48.6 29.7 57.3 75.4 41.9 53.1 34.8 Hispanic women Total, 16 to 24 ... 16 to 19.......... 20 to 2 4 .......... 20 to 2 1 .......... 22 to 2 4 .......... 35.9 58.1 18.8 23.1 16.2 38.4 60.9 19.1 26.6 14.1 1.8 2.0 65.2 55.9 68.8 62.4 72.0 N ot Enrolled enrolled in Total in school school I Differ ence Total 63.2 51.3 73.3 70.4 75.3 50.6 44.1 63.2 62.4 64.3 74.8 67.2 77.6 76.1 78.4 24.2 23.1 14.4 13.7 14.1 54.1 47.9 66.4 65.4 67.7 75.7 69.1 78.2 76.7 78.9 21.5 2 1.2 11.8 11.1 65.5 54.7 74.7 72.0 76.6 28.2 24.4 19.9 16.2 20.3 56.1 39.4 70.5 67.1 72.9 38.2 30.3 55.0 52.8 57.7 72.1 60.3 76.5 75.1 77.2 34.0 29.9 21.4 22.4 19.6 3.3 -.3 11.8 12.8 12 .1 10.9 C hanges, 1995-2000 N ot C ha nge Enrolled enrolled In in in d iffe re n c e school school .9 -.9 3.0 4.9 -.1 3.2 - 1.2 2.7 4.2 2.1 2.1 1.1 2.4 3.2 3.3 .9 1.9 1.3 .6 .0 - 1.1 2.3 1.5 2.3 2.7 2.8 2.6 -.2 11.4 -.9 2.4 4.0 .5 1.6 4.1 1.5 4.6 11 .2 1.6 .1 1.2 6.9 4.4 7.7 5.7 5.5 1.5 6.8 10.3 5.0 - 1.1 3.6 6.1 6.2 6.6 12.8 6.2 5.9 5.2 -.7 I 50.3 68.2 6.9 7.2 5.4 4.5 5.1 51.4 40.6 59.8 53.1 63.5 40.5 33.5 50.6 46.5 54.3 62.5 55.8 65.0 59.3 67.4 2.5 49.2 40.4 55.9 52.1 58.3 40.2 33.6 55.8 51.4 59.7 54.2 49.9 55.9 52.3 58.0 2.8 .3 3.5 - 2.0 22.0 22.4 14.5 12.8 13.1 14.1 16.3 .1 .9 - 1.6 25 to 34 increased by 6.7 million and those 35 to 44, by 12 million. For the next decade, the two groups with the greatest change were aged 35 to 44 and 45 to 54, with 5.7 million and 10 million additional workers. Growth of the labor force by the baby boomers was affected not just by population growth, but also by growth in the labor force participation rate for women. By contrast, the age group 45 to 54 grew by 3.3 million during the 1980—90 period; over the next 10 years, the same group, but in the 55- to 64-age group, increased by 2.4 million. The “baby bust,” a much smaller cohort than the babyboom, caused a drop in the labor force of those aged 16 to 24 in the 1980-90 period and that of those 25 to 34 in 1990-2000, and should cause a drop in the labor force of those 35 to 44 in the 2000-10 period. Sex. Labor force growth for men was less than that for women in both the 1980-90 and 1990-2000 periods, whether measured by numbers o f persons or rates of change. Although popula tion growth for both sexes was similar, labor force participa tion rates for men declined, and increased for women. The population and labor force of both men and women 16 to 24 years of age decreased in the 1980-90 period, as it did for https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 50.6 37.8 61.5 57:1 64.3 37.7 31.5 47.1 47.1 47.2 67.9 57.1 71.8 68.5 73.4 30.3 25.7 24.7 21.4 26.2 - 2.8 1.7 4.0 .7 54.0 41.4 64.9 64.7 65.0 41.4 32.9 64.7 62.9 67.0 61.9 54.7 64.9 65.4 64.7 20.6 4.9 1.2 21.9 .3 2.5 -2.3 1.0 -.7 8.9 11.4 7.3 -.8 9.0 12.6 6.7 - 2.8 - 2.0 -3.4 .6 -7.2 5.5 1.3 8.3 3.3 6.8 10.2 9.1 5.9 8.5 13.1 7.7 4.9 9.0 13.1 6.7 6.5 5.6 .1 1.7 -.6 young men. For this period, the labor force of young men dropped more than that for young women (12 percent, versus 10 percent). The decrease for men was less in the 1990-2000 period, while the labor force of women increased. The labor force of women 25 to 54 increased more rapidly than that of young women or older women between 1980 and 1990. By 1990, when all of the baby-boom generation was in this age group, labor force growth over the 1990-2000 period was mark edly lower than the growth over the 1980-90 period. Women in the 25- to 54-age group also increased their labor force participa tion rates over the 1990-2000 period. For men in the baby-boom generation, participation rates dropped, but the population in this age group increased their labor force, though at a much less rapid rate than the rate for women. Men 55 and older also decreased their labor force participa tion. The age group with the highest labor force participation rates, 55 to 64, decreased in population as well; as a conse quence, the 55 and older labor force dropped between 1980 and 1990. Although women 55 to 64 and women 65 and older were subject to the same population dynamics as men, their labor force participation rates increased between 1980 and 1990 and so did their labor force. The overall 55 and older Monthly Labor Review November 2001 31 Labor Force Table 8. Civilian labor force by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1980, 1990, 2000, and projected 2010 [Numbers in thousands] Annual growth G roup 1980 1990 2000 2010 19 8090 19902000 2 0 0 0 - 198090 10 Total, 16 years and older... 106,940 125,840 40,863 157,721 18,900 15,023 16,858 17.7 223 3,366 - 1 1 .1 16 to 2 4 ..... 25,300 22,492 22,715 26,081 -2,808 960 -16.9 577 9,329 -1,586 7,792 8,369 16 to 19 .... 9,378 -354 2,406 -7.7 20 to 24 .... 15,922 14,700 14,346 16,752 - 1,2 2 2 25 to 54 ..... 25 to 34 .... 35 to 44 .... 45 to 54 .... 66,600 29,227 20,463 16,910 88,322 35,929 32,145 20,248 P ercent distribution P ercent c h a n g e Change Level 19 90- 2 0 0 0 10 2000 1980 1990 2000 100.0 1.8 1.1 .1 1.4 .7 10 .2 10.6 -.6 -.2 1.1 1.6 70.2 28.6 25.5 16.1 71.0 22.5 26.9 66.6 1.2 .5 -1.3 .8 21.6 3.0 2.9 4.6 1.6 21.6 23.3 1.2 4.2 - 1.1 1.9 11.9 9.2 12.9 9.9 16.9 13.4 .2 .1 1.9 1.9 3.9 4.3 100.0 100.0 14.8 11.5 16.8 23.7 17.9 8.8 6.2 14.9 11.7 5.0 13.2 -11.9 8.1 17.7 - 10 .2 20.7 50.5 62.3 27.3 19.1 15.8 14.1 1 1 .2 32.6 22.9 57.1 19.7 3,149 2,399 8,471 7,230 -.1 21.0 -3.4 20.7 46.6 51.7 1990- 2 0 0 0 2000 10 - 1.0 - 1.8 12.0 1.0 99,974 104,994 21,722 11,652 5,020 31,669 34,222 6,702 —4,260 2,553 37,838 33,990 11,682 5,693 -3,849 30,467 36,783 3,338 10,219 6,316 198090 2010 16.1 ! 16.5 5.9 5.9 11.9 7.4 -2.4 rate (p e rc e n t) 100.0 21.7 I 1.1 55 and 26,646 21,204 -13 -410 older......... 15,039 55 to 64 .... 11,985 65 and 3,054 older......... 15,026 18,175 11,575 13,974 3,451 4,200 5,442 397 749 1,242 13.0 21.7 29.6 2.9 2.7 3.0 3.5 .7 2.0 2.6 2,619 2,952 3,410 4,543 333 458 1,133 12.7 15.5 33.2 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.9 .7 1.5 2.9 435 498 790 899 63 292 109 14.5 58.6 13.8 .4 .4 .6 .6 .6 4.7 1.3 .9 65 to 74 .... 75 and older....... Men............ 61,453 69,011 75,247 16 to 24 ..... 13,606 16 to 19 .... 4,999 20 to 24 .... 8,607 11,960 11,876 4,094 4,317 7,866 7,558 25 to 5 4 ...... 38,712 25 to 34 .... 16,971 35 to 44 .... 11,836 45 to 54 .... 9,905 48,456 19,872 17,481 11,103 55 and older 55 to 64 .... 65 and older 65 to 74 .... 75 and older......... 9,135 7,242 1,893 1,601 293 7,558 6,236 13,391 -1,646 -905 4,741 -741 8,650 -8 4 223 -308 82,221 53,359 17,073 20,334 15,951 54,566 17,902 17,809 18,855 8,594 10,013 6,627 7,574 1,967 2,439 1,664 1,970 14,263 11,148 3,115 2,610 469 506 303 12.3 9.0 9.3 57.5 54.8 53.4 52.1 1.2 1,516 - 12 .1 424 -18.1 1,092 - 8.6 -.7 5.5 -3.9 12.8 12.7 4.7 9.5 3.3 6.3 8.4 3.1 5.4 8.5 3.0 5.5 -1.4 - 2.1 -.9 38.5 15.8 13.9 37.9 34.6 11.4 11.3 6,974 9.0 7.1 -.3 -.5 1.5 1.3 8.8 6.8 5.3 1.8 1.6 1.7 .1 .1 2.2 1.3 1.7 1.4 2.0 1.5 1.7 3.6 3.9 2.5 2.9 .1 4.5 .8 12 .1 1 1 .1 12 .1 14.4 11.3 7.1 5.4 10 166 37 3.4 54.7 7.9 .3 .2 .3 .3 8,787 9,884 24.9 15.5 2.9 9.6 -0.7 15.1 42.5 47.9 2.5 1.4 1.4 10.9 4.1 45.2 8.4 2.9 5.4 46.6 17.1 13.2 19.4 7.7 2.9 4.8 8.0 .3 .9 1.6 2.9 5.1 -.7 -1.5 8.2 11.8 26.1 11.5 31.7 -7.6 23.5 8.1 6.5 11.7 7.3 33.1 10.4 12.4 10.3 32.0 10.3 10.3 11.4 4.0 3.8 5.7 2.3 5.5 4.4 5.1 3.9 7.9 6.4 1.0 .8 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.0 5.8 4.5 1.3 1.5 1.0 1.2 .1 .2 .2 .2 6,431 4,948 1,483 1,288 8,162 6,400 1,762 1,441 12,383 10,056 2,327 1,933 142 195 321 393 307 353 -46 1,851 - 10.0 537 -15.6 1,314 - 6.6 43.0 31.0 70.0 30.6 16.9 -9.1 19.4 58.7 322 269 1,731 1,452 279 153 4,221 3,656 565 493 8.9 4.3 27.7 26.4 26.9 29.3 18.8 11.8 51.7 57.1 32.1 34.2 53 126 72 37.3 64.7 22.4 527 206 White.......... 93,600 107,447 117,574 128,043 13,847 10,127 10,470 M en.......... 54,473 59,638 63,861 68,159 5,165 4,223 4,298 Women..... 39,127 47,809 53,714 59,884 8,682 5,905 6,171 2,875 2,863 3,439 Black.......... 10,865 13,740 16,603 20,041 1,190 1,014 1,175 8,991 6,802 7,816 Men.......... 5,612 6,938 8,787 11,050 1,685 1,849 2,263 Women..... 5,253 32 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis .5 -1.3 1.7 6.8 5,904 4,742 1,161 1,019 9,636 5,070 4,566 12.0 3.7 .5 9.3 50,428 11,978 6,749 3,813 1,724 16,320 3,801 -1,462 16,180 6,036 2,841 -1,324 5,370 3,413 17,928 2,141 6,687 3,570 3,116 .2 8.5 46,615 14,596 17,504 14,515 4,653 2,572 2,081 1.0 -1.5 1.5 3.7 42.5 47.2 27.8 32.5 39,866 16,058 14,663 9,145 2,476 1,371 1,105 2.3 2.2 16.5 14.3 24.0 18.4 25 to 54 ..... 27,888 25 to 34 .... 12,257 35 to 44 .... 8,627 45 to 54 .... 7,004 Asian and other1 ....... M en........ Women .... .9 1.4 -5.9 -8.5 3.9 3.9 75,500 11,342 12,690 -1,164 -683 4,588 -481 8,102 65 and older 65 to 74 .... 75 and older....... 36.2 15.9 .5 -.4 25.2 17.1 47.7 56,829 65,616 10,532 10,839 3,698 4,051 6,834 6,788 55 and older........ 55 to 64 .... 10.1 2.3 -14.1 4.9 16.3 -12.4 43.7 18.2 8.0 1.2 1,208 9,744 4,903 829 2,901 -2,799 5,645 2,853 -2,524 1,198 4,848 2,903 1,419 4,251 -541 947 3,574 -615 677 74 472 640 306 63 16 to 24 ..... 11,696 16 to 19 .... 4,381 20 to 24 .... 7,315 Women....... 45,487 9.8 14.4 .9 -.1 2,177 1,2 0 1 971 November 2001 2,034 999 1,033 2,950 1,500 1,449 6.8 12.8 22.2 9.4 7.1 12.4 8.9 6.7 11.5 87.5 50.9 36.6 85.4 47.4 38.0 83.5 45.3 38.1 81.2 43.2 38.0 26.5 20.8 10 .2 32.1 14.9 26.7 5.2 4.9 10.9 5.4 5.5 11.8 2 1 .2 20.7 15.0 25.8 12.7 5.7 7.0 87.9 87.1 88.3 3.7 38.9 49.3 44.1 42.0 46.5 2.3 1.3 3.7 2.0 4.7 2.5 1.0 1.7 2.2 14.8 9.5 5.5 6.2 6.1 3.2 2.9 -.2 1.3 -.1 1.8 1.6 .8 1.1 -.8 2.1 - 1.0 1.8 4.7 2.6 4.3 4.6 1.6 1.7 2.8 1.5 1 1 3.0 1.7 5.1 2.0 1.6 1.0 .9 .7 .9 .7 2.4 1.2 1.1 2.4 1.9 1.4 2.4 1.9 1.4 2.3 3.7 3.3 4.1 3.7 3.6 3.9 2.0 2.8 5.4 5.0 6.0 2.4 Table 8. Continued—Civilian labor force by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1980, 1990, 2000, and projected 2010 [Numbers in thousands] Uiv e l C hange P ercent c h a n g e A nnual growth Percent distribution ra te (p e rc e n t) G rou p Hispanic origin......... M en......... Women .... 1980 1990 6,146 3,817 2,326 10,720 15,368 6,546 8,919 4,174 6,449 2000 2010 198090 19902000 200010 20,947 4,574 4,648 5,579 11,723 2,729 2,373 2,804 9,224 1,848 2,275 2,775 Other than Hispanic origin........ 100,794 115,120 125,495 136,774 14,326 10,375 11,279 Men......... 57,636 62,465 66,328 70,498 4,829 3,863 4,170 Women.... 43,161 52,655 59,167 66,276 9,494 6,512 7,109 White nonHispanic.. 87,633 97,818 102,963 109,118 10,185 5,144 6,155 Men ........ 50,762 53,731 55,359 57,538 2,969 1,627 2,179 Women.... 36,871 44,087 47,604 51,580 7,216 3,517 3,976 1 The “Asian and other group includes (1) Asians and Pacific Islanders and (2) American Indians and Alaska Natives. The historical data are derived by group decreased slightly over the period. During the 19902000 period, the population numbers for the 55- to 64-group increased. Even though labor force participation rates for men continued to decrease, the much greater weight the younger group had resulted in an increase in both the number of men in the labor force and their labor force and participation rate. For women, who continued to experience rising labor force partici pation for all age groups along with an increase in the younger age group, labor force growth more than doubled. Another way to look at the age and sex composition of the labor force is with population pyramids, so-called because for a population with high mortality and fertility, the resulting graphic (chart 1) is shaped like a pyramid. A comparison of the population and labor force pyramids for the 1980 to 2000 pe riod clearly shows some important trends. As the baby boom ages, so does the population and the labor force. This is true for both men and women. By age 30, there are more women in the population than there are men. By 2010, the total popula tion of women will outnumber that of men by roughly 9 million. Race and Hispanic origin. White non-Hispanics were the largest group in the labor force in 1980, accounting for 82 per cent of the total. However, over the 1980-90 and 1990-2000 periods, this group had the lowest growth rates— 1.1 and 0.5 percent a year—among the groups analyzed. The smallest group, Asians and others had the fastest growth rate over those periods. Indeed, growth rates were inversely related to ranking by size, and the rankings were the same for men and https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 1980- 1990- 2 0 0 0 90 2000 10 74.4 71.5 79.4 43.4 36.3 54.5 36.3 31.4 43.0 14.2 8.4 9.0 6.2 9.0 6.3 22.0 12.4 12.0 11.6 5.3 3.0 6.0 5.8 19.6 8.0 3.9 8.4 198090 19 90- 2 0 0 0 2000 10 1980 1990 2000 2010 5.7 3.6 2.2 8.5 5.2 3.3 10.9 6.3 4.6 13.3 7.4 5.8 94.3 53.9 40.4 91.5 49.6 41.8 89.1 47.1 42.0 86.7 44.7 42.0 13 g g 8 2.0 6 1.2 6 1.1 81.9 47.5 34.5 77.7 42.7 35.0 73.1 39.3 33.8 69.2 36.5 32.7 1 1 6 1.8 5 3 4 .8 .8 5.7 5.5 6.0 3.7 31 4.4 31 ?8 3.6 6 subtracting “black” and “white” from the total; projections are made directly, not by subtraction. women. Asian and other women and men each were the fastest growing labor force group over the 1980-2000 period. More over, all minority groups increased their share of the labor force during this time. Hispanics increased their share from 5.7 percent to 10.9 percent, Asian and others increased their share from 2.3 percent to 4.7 percent, and blacks increased their share from 10.2 percent to 11.8 percent. By contrast, white non-His panics, decreased their share of the labor force from 82 percent to 73 percent. The pattern of labor force growth rates is more reflective of changes in the population than of changes in labor force participation rates, which grew more rapidly at 5year-intervals for white non-Hispanics than for other groups (table 6). Projected ch a n g e s in the labor force Although labor force participation is expected to continue in creasing at a slower rate, the labor force, like the population, is projected to grow slightly more rapidly over the 2000-10 pe riod than it did over the 1990-2000 period. The labor force, however, will change in composition, as various age, race or Hispanic groups, and men and women will experience change at different rates. Age. The youth labor force (aged 16 to 24) is projected to increase by 3.4 million, more than 10 times the increase of the 1980-90 period. The 2010 youth labor force is projected to be larger than that in 1980, 1990, and 2000. For the labor force Monthly Labor Review November 2001 33 Labor Force aged 25 to 54, the story is different. The projected increase of D yn am ics 5.0 million is less than a quarter of the increase for the 1980— 90 period. Persons aged 25 to 34, whose number decreased From 2000 through 2010, the dynamics of labor force change over the 1990-2000 period by 4.3 million, are projected to emerge from three distinct groups: entrants—those who will increase by 2.6 million. The 35- to 44-age group, which in be in the labor force in 2010, but who were not in it in 2000; creased by 5.7 million over the 1990-2000 period, is projected leavers—those who will exit the labor force after 2000 and to drop by 3.8 million. The 45- to 54-age group is expected to before 2010; and stayers—those who were in the labor force increase in size; but even this group, made up of the younger in 2000 and will remain through 2010.14 To the extent that the members of the baby-boom generation, is expected to increase demographic composition of labor force entrants between at a slower rate than earlier. The smaller, younger age groups 2000 and 2010 is different from the composition of those now in the labor force, the 2010 labor force will be different from are those following the baby-boom generation. today’s labor force. The projected labor force also will be af The labor force of workers 55 and older—identified as hav fected by the demographic composition of those leaving. ing the fastest rates of population growth and the greatest Thus, the labor force of 2010 may be regarded as consisting of increases in labor force participation—is expected to grow by the labor force of 2000, plus the entrants, less the leavers. 8.5 million. Within that group, the 55 - to 64-group is expected b l s projects that between 2 0 0 0 and 2 0 1 0 , 4 1 million workers to increase by 7.2 million. will enter the labor force and 24 million will leave. (See table 9.) As can be seen in the population pyramids (chart 1), by These figures compare with 34 million entrants and 20 million 2010, the population is beginning to assume the shape of a leavers over the 1990-2000 period. During the earlier period, rectangle, with notches for the “baby bust.” The baby-boom entrants were more likely to be men. Leavers also were more generation will not have as impressive effect on the labor likely to be men, because the male labor force was and is older force in 2010 as they had earlier; their share o f the labor than that of women. However, the vast difference in share force will decrease from 49 percent in 2000 to 38 percent in exhibited for the 1990-2000 period is projected to narrow some 2010. Also, the relative number of older women projected is what, resulting in an almost equal share of women and men striking. entering the labor force. According to these proj ections, by 2010,20 million men will Sex. The labor force of men is projected to grow by 0.9 per have joined the 2000 labor force of 75 million, and 13 million cent annually, while that of women is expected to grow by 1.4 men will have left the labor force, resulting in a labor force of percent. Because of the differential growth rates, women’s 82 million men in 2010. Similarly, 21 million women are expected share of the labor force is projected to increase from 47 per to enter the labor force over the period 2000-10, while 11 mil cent to 48 percent. lion women are projected to leave. The largest share of the 2000 labor force—73 percent—was Race and Hispanic origin. As mentioned earlier, the His made up of non-Hispanic whites. Three-fifths of the popula panic male labor force exceeded that of black men in 2000 and the black female labor force greatly exceeded that of Hispanic tion expected to enter the labor force between 2000 and 2010 women. Also, as the Hispanic population continues to grow are projected to be non-Hispanic whites, less than their share at a faster than the black population, it will be larger than the over the 1990-2000 period. These proportions are smaller than black population by 2010 and its labor force will be larger than their share of the work force, reflecting this group’s lower that of blacks, as well. (Given that projections have errors and population growth. As a result of the 25 million non-Hispanic the possibility that the method for enumerating race and His whites entering the labor force, and the 19 million leaving over panic origin could change, the specificity of the year should the 2000-10 period, the share of non-Hispanic whites in the labor force is projected to be 69 percent in 2010— a drop of 4 be viewed with caution.13) The Asian and other group’s population also is growing percentage points and down 8 percentage points from 1990. In rapidly. However, they are expected to remain the smallest of the 1990-2000 period, most of the entrants were white nonthe four labor force groups well beyond 2010. Similarly, the Hispanic men—32 percent, but more striking, most of the white non-Hispanic group, which is growing slowly, will re leavers were also white non-Hispanic men—49 percent. The labor force of white non-Hispanics is projected to grow main the largest group. Their share of the 2010 labor force is expected to be 69 percent and would be 6.2 million larger than 0.6 percent per year, slower than the overall labor force. The their level in 2000. The remaining three groups are expected to slower growth reflects little immigration of this demographic add 10.7 million persons to the labor force over the same group to the United States and lower birth rates in the past, period. White non-Hispanics will remain by far the largest compared with other population groups. This results in rela tively fewer labor force entrants and relatively more labor force group of the labor force for years after 2010. 34 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 Table 9. Civilian labor force 16 and older, 1990 and 2000, and projected 2010, and entrants and leavers, actual 1990-2000 and projected, 2000-10 1990-2000 G rou p 2 0 00-1 0 1990 2000 Entrants Leavers Stayers Entrants Leavers 2010 Stayers Numbers [thousands] Total........................... Men............................ Women....................... 125,840 69,011 56,829 34,669 17,783 16,886 19,646 11,547 8,098 106,194 57,464 48,730 140,864 75,247 65,617 41,048 20,379 20,669 24,191 13,406 10,785 116,673 61,842 54,831 157,721 82,221 75,500 White non-Hispanic.... Men............................ Women...................... 97,818 53,731 44,087 21,363 11,214 10,149 16,219 9,587 6,632 81,599 44,145 37,455 102,962 55,359 47,604 24,873 12,583 12,290 18,717 10,404 8,314 84,245 44,955 39,290 109,118 57,538 51,580 Black non-Hispanic.... Men............................ Women...................... 13,566 6,727 6,839 4,694 2,004 2,689 2,131 1,163 967 11,435 5,564 5,872 16,129 7,568 8,561 5,627 2,463 3,164 2,843 1,525 1,318 13,286 6,043 7,243 18,913 8,507 10,407 Hispanic origin.......... Men............................ Women...................... 10,720 6,546 4,174 5,667 3,026 2,641 1,020 653 367 9,700 5,893 3,807 15,368 8,919 6,449 7,331 3,820 3,511 1,752 1,016 736 13,617 7,903 5,713 20,947 11,723 9,224 Asian and other, non-Hispanic.......... Men............................ Women...................... 3,735 2,007 1,728 2,946 1,539 1,406 277 145 132 3,459 1,862 1,597 6,404 3,401 3,003 3,218 1,513 1,705 879 461 417 5,526 2,940 2,586 8,743 4,453 4,290 [percent] Total........................... Men............................ Women...................... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 54.8 45.2 100.0 51.3 48.7 100.0 58.8 41.2 100.0 54.1 45.9 100.0 53.4 46.6 100.0 49.6 50.4 55.4 44.6 53.0 47.0 52.1 47.9 White non-Hispanic .... M en ............................ Women....................... 77.7 42.7 35.0 61.6 32.3 29.3 82.6 48.8 33.8 76.8 41.6 35.3 73.1 39.3 33.8 60.6 30.7 29.9 77.4 43.0 34.4 72.2 38.5 33.7 69.2 36.5 32.7 Black non-Hispanic.... Men............................ Women...................... 10.8 13.5 5.8 7.8 10.8 10.8 5.3 5.4 11.8 5.2 5.5 11.5 5.4 13.7 5.9 4.9 7.7 6.3 5.4 11.4 5.2 12 0 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.6 Hispanic origin.......... Men............................ Women...................... 8.5 5.2 3.3 16.3 8.7 7.6 5.2 3.3 1.9 9.1 5.5 3.6 10.9 6.3 4.6 17.9 9.3 7.2 4.2 3.0 11.7 8.6 13.3 74 5.8 Asian and other, non-Hispanic.......... Men..................... Women....................... 3.0 8.5 4.4 4.1 1.4 .7 .7 3.3 1.8 4.5 2.4 1.5 2.1 7.8 3.7 4.2 3.6 1.9 1.7 4.7 25 3.7 Share 1.6 1.4 Note : The four race, Hispanic origin groups add to the total. Hispanics may be of any race. leavers—a reflection of the aging white male labor force. White non-Hispanic women are projected to increase their participa tion more than any other group, but this faster growth rate will not be enough to offset the slow growth in the non-Hispanic population of only 0.6 percent yearly. Blacks, the second largest group in the 2000 labor force, made up 11.5 percent of the labor force or a total of 16.1 million. (In this section, unlike, the rest of the article, Hispanic blacks are in cluded only with Hispanics rather than with both.) Blacks are projected to add 5.6 million workers to the labor force between 2000 and 2010— 14 percent of all new entrants during the period. This is more than the number that entered between 1990 and 2000. With the 2.8-million blacks projected to leave the labor force over the period, the group will increase in number, and by https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 6.8 4.9 54 55 2 8 2.7 The “Asian and other group includes (1) Asian and Pacific Isl anders and (2 ) American Indians and Alaska Natives. 2010, their share ofthe labor force is expected to be 12.0 percent, up 0.5 percentage points from 2000. The black labor force is pro jected to grow faster than the overall labor force because of their higher-than-average population growth resulting from higher-than-average birth rates and immigration. In 2000, Hispanics (of all races) were the third largest labor force group, with 15.4 million workers representing 10.9 percent of the labor force. Because of their higher levels of migration, some 7.3 million Hispanics are projected to enter the labor force during the 2000—10 period. Only 1.8 million Hispanics are pro jected to leave the labor force (reflecting their relatively young age composition), so the number of Hispanics in the labor force is projected to grow by more than 5.5 million, increasing to 20.9 million persons in 2010. The Hispanic share of the labor force is Monthly Labor Review November 2001 35 Labor Force expected to grow because of overall population growth—from higher birth levels and increased migration—and because of in creases in the participation rate of Hispanic women. In 2000, the smallest racial group in the labor force was Asian and other. About 3.2 million members of this group will enter the labor force during the 2000-10 period, which is a notable amount, considering that its 1990 labor force was only a half million larger. Because relatively fewer workers of this group are projected to leave the labor force over the period, the group is projected to increase by 44 percent. Increases in the number of Asians and others in the labor force reflect their continued high immigration. Aspects of the aging labor force Median age. The age of the labor force can be measured in various ways; one is median age. As the baby-boom genera tion entered the labor force, the median age of the labor force decreased; once in the labor force, this large group can only age. The median age of the labor force, at 40.5 years in 1962 (the highest level attained before the baby-boomers entered the labor force), dropped steadily until 1980, and since then, it has been rising. With the population projected to continue aging as rapidly as in the past, the median age of the labor force in 2010 is projected to just exceed the level reached in 1962. (See table 10.) The following tabulation provides median ages for the civilian noninstitutional population and labor force ages 16 and older: 1990 Population.............. Labor force.............. Difference............... 2000 41.1 36.6 4.5 44.2 39.3 4.9 2010 44.7 40.6 4.1 The median age of both groups is increasing, but the me dian age of the population is increasing more than the labor force. The median age of the labor force is less than the median age of the population because the labor force participation rates of older persons are much lower than the rates of young workers. The growth of the older population, combined with the increase in their participation rates, results in the median age of the 2010 projected labor force exceeding the level of the highest median that was recorded in 1962. Historically, white non-Hispanic participants have had a higher median age than the rest of the labor force. This is projected to continue, with the difference reaching 1.6 years in 2010. Compared with white non-Hispanic groups, the black and Hispanic groups have a lower median age, reflecting their higher birth rates. As a result, black and Hispanic youth are projected to claim a somewhat larger share of their respective populations. Black participants in the labor force have been about 1.5 years to 3.1 years younger than the overall labor force; this age gap is projected to continue through 2010. In 2000, the median age of Asians and other participants in the labor force was 1.5 years less than the overall labor force. This difference is expected to increase to 2.0 years by 2010. His panic participants generally have been younger, due to their higher fertility rate. This group is projected to continue having a lower median age than the overall labor force, but it is pro jected to age from a median of 34.9 years in 2000 to 36.4 years in 2010, reflecting the aging of earlier immigrants. The median age of all race and Hispanic groups is expected to increase during the 2000-10 period. Age composition. There are other ways to look at the age structure of the labor force. For example, one scenario for an aging labor force would be an increase in the proportion of those 65 and older and a decrease in the proportion of those under 25. Table 11 presents distribution of the population and labor force aged 16 and older, by age group and sex. From 1980 to 2000, the proportion of those 65 and older in the population increased. This proportion is expected to increase slightly through 2010. By contrast, the proportion of persons 16 to 24 decreased over the1980-2000 period, however, it is expected to increase by 2010. The population is getting older, based on the median age, and younger, based on proportions! Since 1990, the proportion of 25- to 39-year olds has decreased and it is expected to continue decreasing through 2010. M e d ia n a g e s of th e lab o r fo rc e , b y sex, r a c e , a n d H ispanic origin, s e le c te d historical ye a rs a n d p ro je c te d 20 10 1962 G rou p 1980 1990 2000 2010 Total......................................................... Men ...................................................... Women.................................................. 40.5 40.5 40.4 34.6 35.1 33.9 36.6 36.7 36.4 39.3 39.3 39.3 40.6 40.6 40.6 W hite.................................................... Black.................................................... Asian and other2 ................................... 40.9 0) C) 34.8 33.3 33.8 36.8 34.9 36.5 39.7 37.3 37.8 41.3 37.7 38.7 Hispanic origin3 ..................................... White non-Hispanic............................... (4) (4) 30.7 35.0 33.2 37.0 34.9 40.4 36.4 42.2 1 Data not available before 1972. 2 The “Asian and other” group includes (1) Asians and Pacific Islanders and (2) American Indians and Alaska Natives. The historic data are derived by sub- 36 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 trading “black” and “white” from the total; projections are made directly. 3 Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race. 4 Data not available before 1980. Table 11. Distribution of the population and labor force by age and sex, 1980, 1990, 2000, and projected 2010 [Percent] Population Labor fo rc e G roup 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 17.7 33.3 49.1 15.5 100.0 16.8 25.0 58.2 15.8 7.0 100.0 23.7 37.8 38.6 2.4 .4 17.9 42.0 40.1 2.3 .4 16.1 35.7 48.2 2.4 16.5 32.1 51.4 29 .6 .6 100.0 22.1 100.0 100.0 100.0 38.2 39.7 3.1 .5 17.3 42.2 40.4 2.9 .4 15.8 36.1 48.1 3.2 16.3 32.3 51.4 38 2000 2010 Total, 16 years and o ld e r............................ 16 to 24 ...................................... 25 to 39 ..................................... 40 and older........................................... 65 and older.......................................... 75 and older.................................... 100.0 2 2 .2 6.1 16.4 28.4 55.2 15.6 7.1 Men, total.................................... 16 to 2 4 .......................................... 25 to 39 ................................... 40 and older...................................... 65 and older.............................................. 75 and older.................................... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 23.0 31.0 46.0 4.2 18.4 34.2 47.4 13.3 4.7 17.2 28.9 53.9 13.8 5.8 17.6 25.4 57.1 14.2 5.8 .6 .6 Women, total.............................. 16 to 2 4 ....................................... 25 to 39 ....................................... 40 and older.......................................... 65 and older.................................. 75 and o ld e r.............................................. 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 21.4 29.3 49.3 16.3 6.4 100.0 17.0 32.4 50.7 17.4 7.4 100.0 15.7 27.8 56.4 17.2 8.3 100.0 16.1 24.6 59.3 17.3 100.0 25.7 37.2 37.1 18.5 41.7 39.8 2.6 2.6 8.0 .3 .3 16.5 35.2 48.3 2.7 .5 16.8 31.8 51.4 31 .5 30.1 47.7 14.5 5.4 12.6 Looking at the composition of the population by sex, the same general patterns hold. However, the male population has proportionately more youth than the female population, re flecting their higher proportion of births, slightly higher cur rent migration, and higher mortality. (Compared with the over all male population relatively more women are in the older ages. Although table 11 does not show the relative sizes of the fe male and male population groups (as does table 2) it does indicate that the female population has a greater share of their population in the older ages.) The age structure of the labor force, 16 and older is differ ent from that of the population, 16 and older. A smaller share of the labor force is 65 and older. Youth aged 16 to 24 also make up a smaller share of the labor force than of the population. However, between 2000 and 2010, the youth share of the labor force is projected to increase. The baby-boom generation can be followed within the labor force by observing that in 1980, it was in the youth group. By 1990, the share of the labor force aged 25 to 39 had increased, indicating that the baby-boomers moved into this age group. By 2010, this age group’s share of the labor force is projected to be less than it was in 1980, as the baby-boom generation will have aged. In 2000,48.2 percent of the labor force was age 40 or older; by 2010, more than half the labor force will be in this age category. Economic dependency. Since 1987, there were more Ameri cans in the labor force than those who were not. This phenom enon is projected to prevail throughout the entire projection period, with the ratio of those not working to those who are working reaching 90 per 100 workers in 2010. This measure, known as the economic dependency ratio, is the number of https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis persons in the total population (including Armed Forces over seas and children) who are not in the labor force per 100 of those who are in the labor force. (See table 12.) For every 100 persons in the 2000 labor force, about 94 persons were not. Of this group, about 44 were children, 29 were 16 to 64 years of age, and 21 were older than 64. Upon examining these ratios, for various age groups, one can see that the decrease in the overall ratio is attrib utable to the change in the number of children. As the num ber of births diminished and the baby boom moved to ages older than 16, the total economic dependency ratio dropped. Most of the 32-percentage point drop for the total population between 1975 and 2000 was attributable to the decline in the number o f births. The portion of the ratio attributed to chil dren is projected to continue dropping, despite somewhat higher births. The remainder of the historical drop in the dependency ratio is attributable to higher labor force par ticipation for women aged 16 to 64. As a result, the ratio for the 16- to 64-age group dropped 16 points, from 44.2 in 1975 to 28.3 in 2000. This ratio is projected to resume decreasing, reflecting the projected increase in participation of men and of young women aged 16 to 24. Table 12. Economic dependency ratio, 1975-2000 and projected 2010, by age [Per hundred in the labor force] G roup 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2010 Total population ... 126.3 Under 16........... 61.4 16 to 6 4 ............ 44.2 65 and o ld e r..... 20.7 108.9 50.7 37.4 103.3 47.3 34.2 98.3 45.8 30.5 93.9 44.1 28.3 20.8 21.8 22.1 96.6 48.6 25.7 22.3 90.3 40.1 28.9 21.3 Monthly Labor Review 21.6 November 2001 37 Labor Force The part o f the dependency ratio that had been steadily increasing is the portion attributable to older persons. In 1975, this was by far the smallest part o f the dependency ratio, and by 2010, it is expected to still be the smallest proportion. However, between 1975 and 1990, the older per sons’ dependency ratio grew 1.4 percentage points; it then fell to 21.6 per hundred and it is projected to remain at that level. The decrease represented the entry of the birth dearth o f the 1930s into the 65 and older group. With what we now believe to be the composition o f the population after 2010, it is clear that the overall dependency ratio will rise some time after 2010; but it may never reach the level of 1975. T he 2010 la b o r force is expected to have a greater propor tion of women and Hispanics than the 2000 labor force. As the baby-boom generation ages, the work force is expected to grow older. Between 2000 and 2010,116 million workers are expected to remain in the labor force, 41 million workers are projected to enter the labor force, and 24 million are expected to leave. As a result, the labor force in 2010 would be 158 million—up 17 million from the 2000 level. This represents a continuation of the 1990-2000 growth rate. □ N otes 1 The civilian labor force con sists o f em ployed and unem ployed persons actively seeking work, but does not include any Armed Forces personnel. Historical data for this series are from the Current Popula tion Survey, conducted by the Bureau o f the Census for the Bureau o f Labor Statistics. The p rojections in this issu e were com pleted prior to the tragic events o f September 11, 2001. bls w ill continue to review its projec tions and as long-term consequences o f September 11 becom e clearer w ill incorporate these effects in subsequent releases o f the labor force o u tlook . 2 This projection replaces that described in Howard N Fullerton, Jr., “The labor force: steady growth, changing com position,” M o n th ly L a b o r R e view , November 1999, pp. 19-32. For further labor force projec tion data, see http://stats.bls.gov/emplabl.htm. 3 Projections o f labor force participation rates for each group are developed by first estim ating a trend rate o f change, usually based on participation rate behavior during the prior 8-year period. Second, the rate is modified when the time-series projections for the specific group appear inconsistent with the results o f cross-sectional and cohort analy ses. This second step ensures consistency in the projections across the various demographic groups. For further information, see H a n d b o o k o f M e th o d s , “Em ploym ent P rojections” (W ashington, Bureau o f Labor S ta tistic s, 1 9 9 9 ), Chapter 13, availab le on the Internet at h ttp :// stats.bls.gov/opub/hom /hom chl3_a.htm . 4 Frederick W. Hollmann, Tammany J. Mulder, and Jeffrey E. Kalian, “Population Projections o f the United States, 1999 to 2100: M ethod ology and A ssum ptions” Working Paper N o. 38 (U.S. Department o f Commerce, Bureau o f the Census, 1999). 5 For a discussion o f migration theories, see Douglass S. Massey, Joaquin Arango, Graeme Hugo, Ali Kouaouci, Adela Pellegrino, and J. Edward Taylor, “Theories o f International Migration: A R eview and A ppraisal,” P o p u la tio n a n d D e v e lo p m e n t R e v ie w , September 1993, pp. 4 3 1 -6 6 . 6 See Richard A. Ippolito, “Toward E xplaining Early Retirem ent After 1970,” I n d u s tr ia l a n d L a b o r R e la tio n s R e v ie w , July 1990, pp. 5 5 6-69. Also, see the discussion and tables in Howard N Fullerton, Jr., “Labor force participation: 75 years o f change, 1 9 5 0 -9 8 and 1998— 2025,” M o n th ly L a b o r R eview , December 1999, pp. 3-12; Arlene Dohm, “Gauging the labor force effects o f retiring baby-boom ers,” M o n th ly L a bor R eview , July 2000; pp. 17-25, and William J. Wiatrowski, “Chang- 38 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 in g re tire m e n t age: u p s an d d o w n s,” M on th ly L a b o r R e view , A pril 2 0 0 1 , pp. 3 - 1 2 . 7 T h e an aly sis is c o m p lic a te d by th e re d e sig n o f th e C u rre n t P o p u la tio n S u rv e y im p le m e n te d in 1 9 94. T h e s u rv e y is n o w c o u n tin g m o re o ld e r w o m en an d m en in th e la b o r fo rce d u e to th e im p ro v e d q u e s tio n n a ire design. 8 S ee D ia n e E. H e rz , “ W o rk a f te r e a rly re tire m e n t: A n in c r e a s in g tre n d a m o n g m e n ,” M o n th ly L a b o r R e v ie w , A p ril 1995, pp. 1 3 -2 0 . 9 W h ile it is im p o s s ib le fo r e v e ry o n e to e x p e rie n c e h ig h e r ra te s o f r e tu rn th a n a v e ra g e all th e tim e , so m e w o rk e rs d o e x p e r ie n c e a b o v e a v e ra g e ra te s o f re tu rn o n th e ir d e fin e d c o n trib u tio n b e n e f it p e n s io n s. S o m e o f th e s e w o r k e r s r e tir e e a r ly , a n d o th e r s d e c id e to c o n tin u e w o rk in g to a d d m o re fu n d s to th e ir a c c o u n t a n d fu rth e r in c re a s e th e ir r e tir e m e n t in c o m e . 10 N o rm a l R e tire m e n t A g e , S o c ia l S e c u rity A d m in istra tio n , D e c e m b e r 4 , 2 0 0 0 , o n th e I n te rn e t a t http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/ProgData/ nra.html (v is ite d D ec. 2 0 , 2 0 0 0 ). 11 See “T h e P re sid e n t S ig n s th e ‘S e n io r C itiz e n s ’ F re e d o m to W ork A ct o f 2 0 0 0 ,’ ” Social Security L egislative B ulletin n u m b er 106-20, A pril 7, 2 0 0 0 , o n th e S o c ia l S e c u r ity In te rn e t s ite a t http://www.ssa.gov/ legislation/legis_bulletin_040700.html ( v i s i t e d N o v . 13, 2 0 0 1 ) . 12 S ee H o w a rd V. H a y g h e , “ A re w o m e n le a v in g th e la b o r fo rc e ? ” M o n th ly L a b o r R e v ie w , Ju ly 1994, pp. 3 7 - 3 9 . 13 F o r th e m o st re c e n t e v a lu a tio n o f bls la b o r fo rc e p ro je c tio n s, see H o w a rd N F u lle rto n , Jr., “ A n e v a lu a tio n o f la b o r fo rc e p ro je c tio n s to 1 9 9 5 ,” M o n th ly L a b o r R e v ie w , S e p te m b e r 1997, pp. 5 - 9 . 14 E n tra n ts a n d le a v e rs are c o m p u te d b y c o m p a rin g th e la b o r fo rc e n u m b e r s fo r b ir th c o h o r ts a t tw o p o in ts in tim e . I f th e la b o r f o rc e n u m b e rs a t th e s e c o n d p o in t a re la rg e r, th e d iffe re n c e is te r m e d “th e e n tra n ts.” I f th e la b o r force n u m b ers a t th e se c o n d p o in t are sm aller, th e d iffe re n c e is th e le av ers. T h e se c o n c e p ts u n d e rsta te th e n u m b e rs lik e ly to e n te r a n d le a v e th e la b o r fo rc e o v e r th e p e rio d c o v e re d b y th e tw o p o in ts in tim e , b u t a re s till a v a lid c o m p a ris o n . A s w ith m e a s u re s o f g e o g ra p h ic m o b ility , w h ic h a lso d o n o t m e a su re all th e c h a n g e s o v e r a p e r io d , w e d o n o t c a ll th e s e n e t e n tr a n ts a n d le a v e r s . F o r a f u r th e r d is c u s s io n o f th e m e th o d s , se e H o w a rd N F u lle rto n , Jr., “ M e a s u r in g R a te s o f L a b o r F o rc e D y n a m ic s ,” P ro c e e d in g s o f the S o c ia l S ta tis tic s S e c tio n , A m e ric a n S ta tistic a l A s s o c ia tio n , 1993. Industry Employment Em ploym ent outlook: 2000- W Industry output and employment projections to 2010 U.S. employment to 2010 is expected to rise, although not as quickly as in the 1990s; nonfarm wage and salary workers should account fo r most o f the new jobs Jay M. Berman Jay M. Berman is an economist in the Office of O ccupational Statistics and Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics, e-mail: bermanj@ bls.gov https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis mployment in the United States is pro jected to increase by 22.2 million over the 2000-10 period. Even though the growth (1.4 percent) is slightly slower than that experi enced during the past decade, employment in the economy is expected to reach 167.8 million. Nonfarm wage and salary workers are expected to account for most of the projected employment gains, 152.5 million. Agricultural employment— including wage and salary workers, self-em ployed persons, and unpaid family workers— is projected to increase by 323,000. Nonfarm selfemployed and unpaid family workers are also ex pected to increase—to 9.1 million—while private household wage and salary jobs are projected to decline by 226,000. (See table 1.) Real output among industries is expected to expand by nearly $6.1 trillion between 2000 and 2010, to $22.3 trillion from $16.2 trillion.1 The resulting average annual growth rate of 3.3 per cent closely mirrors that experienced during the 1990-2000 period. Nearly 60 percent of total out put growth will be attributed to the service-pro ducing industries, where real output is expected to expand at about the same rate experienced during the past decade—3.4 percent—and reach $13.1 trillion by 2010. Real output growth in the goods-producing sector is projected to increase 3 percent annually, slightly slower than that of the 1990-2000 period. Although comprising just 1.8 percent of the economy’s total output, agri culture output is expected to grow at 1.9 percent E annually, slightly lower than its previous 10-year growth rate. (See table 2.) The aggregate picture of the economy for the year 2010 has labor force and gross domestic product growth remaining constant, while rising productivity rates continue to lead the way for output increases. Macroeconomic factors pro viding the foundation for the industry and out put projections include the labor force and de mographic changes, Government defense spend ing and tax policies, foreign economic activity, business investment decisions, personal con sumption patterns, and aggregate productivity trends.2 Most recent BLS projections of the economy has the labor force growing at an annual rate of 1.1 percent, which echoes that experienced dur ing the 1990-2000 period. Growth of the nonfarm labor productivity index is projected to average 2.8 percent per year from 2000 through 2010, a significant increase from the 2.0-percent rate ob served over the previous 10 years. Annual GDP growth is expected to mirror the 3.3-percent rate experienced during the previous 1990-2000 pe riod. Within GDP, business investment is set to continue to outpace household consumption as companies continue to take advantage of tech nological advances to enhance productivity. Foreign trade, however, is expected to accelerate the fastest as the trade deficit on average by 8 percent annually throughout the projected pe riod, thereby depressing the dollar exchange rate. Monthly Labor Review November 2001 39 Industry Employment Table 1. Employment by major industry division, 1990, 2000, and projected 2010 Thousands of jobs C hange P ercent distribution A v e ra g e annual ra te of c h a n g e Industry 1990 2000 2010 1990-2000 2000-1 0 1990 2000 2010 1990-2000 2000-1 0 Total1 ................................. 124,324 145,594 167,754 21,269 22,160 98.2 98.8 99.0 1.6 1.4 Nonfarm wage and salary2 ...................... 108,760 130,639 152,447 21,879 21,807 87.5 89.7 90.9 1.8 1.6 Goods producing........... Mining........................... Construction................ Manufacturing.............. Durable....................... Nondurable................. 24,906 709 5,120 19,077 11,109 7,968 25,709 543 6,698 18,469 11,138 7,331 27,057 488 7,522 19,047 11,780 7,267 803 -167 1,578 -607 29 -637 1,347 -55 825 577 642 -64 20.0 0.6 16.1 0.3 4.5 11.4 7.0 4.3 0.3 - 2.6 2.7 -.3 0.5 - 1.1 4.1 15.3 8.9 6.4 17.7 0.4 4.6 12.7 7.7 5.0 0.0 -. 8 0.6 -.1 Service producing.......... 83,854 104,930 125,390 21,076 20,461 67.4 72.1 74.7 2.3 1.8 5,776 6,173 19,601 7,019 7,024 23,307 8,274 7,800 26,400 1,243 851 3,706 1,255 776 3,093 4.6 5.0 15.8 4.8 4.8 16.0 4.9 4.6 15.7 2.0 1.7 1.3 1.7 1.1 6,709 27,291 18,304 3,085 7,560 39,340 20,680 2,777 8,247 52,233 22,436 2,622 851 12,049 2,376 -308 687 12,893 1,757 -154 5.4 4.9 31.1 13.4 1.2 3.7 .9 2.9 14.7 2.5 5.2 27.0 14.2 1.9 1.6 - 1.0 .8 -.6 15,219 17,903 19,814 2,684 1,911 12 .2 12.3 11 .8 1.6 1.0 3,340 3,526 3,849 186 323 2.7 2.4 2.3 .5 .9 1,014 890 664 -124 -226 .8 .6 .4 -1.3 -2.9 8,921 8,731 9,062 -190 331 7.2 6.0 5.4 -.2 .4 205 155 150 -50 -5 .2 .1 .1 - 2.8 -.3 2,084 1,652 1,582 -432 -70 1.7 1.1 .9 -2.3 -.4 Transportaion, communications, utilities.......................... Wholesale trade............. Retail trade..................... Finance, insurance, and real estate............ Services......................... Government................... Federal Government...... State and local government.................. Agriculture3 ....................... Private household wage and salary....................... Nonagriculture selfemployed and unpaid family workers4 ................ Secondary wage and salary jobs in agricutlure (except agricultural services); forestry, fishing, and trapping; and private households6... Secondary jobs as a self-employed or unpaid family worker6 ................. 1 Employment data for wage and salary workers are from the bls Current Employment Statistics (payroll) survey, which counts jobs, whereas selfemployed, unpaid family workers, agricultural, and private household data are from the Current Population Survey (household survey), which counts workers. 2 Excludes sic 074,5, 8 (agricultural services and 99 nonclassifiable establishments), and is therefore not directly comparable with the data published in the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly periodical, E m plo ym ent a n d Earnings. Continuing the 1990-2000 historical trend, virtually all non farm wage and salary employment growth will be generated by service-producing sector.3 Even though the goods-producing sector will continue to add jobs, its relatively slow 0.5 percent annual growth is dwarfed by the expected 1.8-percent pace and 20.5 million jobs created by the service sector. The service industry division represents the strongest growth within the service-producing sector, both in terms of absolute and percentage change. Generating 12.9 million jobs 40 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 22.0 1.2 1.2 0.3 1.3 3 Excludes government wage and salary workers, and includes private sector for sic 08, 09 (forestry, fishing, hunting, and trapping). “ Excludes sic 08,09 (forestry, fishing, hunting, and trapping). 5Workers who hold a secondary wage and salary job in agriculture (except agricultural services); forestry, fishing, hunting and trapping; and private households. 6 Wage and salary workers who hold a secondary job as a self-employed or unpaid family worker. at an average annual rate of 2.9 percent, this industry over shadows the 3.1 million jobs expected to be created by the retail trade industry, the next largest source of employment growth. Together, these two industry divisions make up about 73 percent of the total increase in nonfarm wage and salary employment between 2000 and 2010. Buoyed by a projected increase of approximately 2 million jobs at the State and local level, government employment is expected to rise to 22.4 mil lion. Federal Government employment, only about 17 percent I Q 3 3 9 0 u *Put by major industry division (gross duplicated output), 1990, 2000, and projected 2010 Billions of c h a in e d 1992 dollars 1990 2000 2010 A v e ra g e an nu al ra te of c h a n g e P ercent distribution Industry 1990 2000 2010 1990-2000 2 0 00-1 0 3.3 Total..................................... 11,472.2 16,180.2 22,286.1 100.0 100.0 100.0 3.5 Goods producing.............. Mining................................ Construction...................... Manufacturing.................... Durable............................ Nondurable..................... 3,947.5 205.4 730.0 3,022.0 1,480.8 1,553.0 5,724.4 34.4 3.8 .3 6.4 26.3 12.9 13.5 35.4 1.3 5.6 28.4 17.2 11.3 34.5 910.1 4,601.4 2,785.2 1,834.5 7,681.0 229.9 1,182.1 6,278.6 4,136.4 2,219.7 Service producing............... Transportation, communications, utilities . Wholesale trade................ Retail trade........................ Finance, insurance, and real estate...................... Services............................ Government....................... Federal Government......... State and local government...................... 6,732.3 9,421.9 13,079.1 58.7 58.2 931.1 607.7 896.8 1,278.0 920.4 1,222.4 1,961.9 1,409.6 1,627.9 8.1 5.3 7.8 1,198.1 2,056.7 1,043.4 388.9 1,806.4 3,031.5 1,161.6 353.3 2,429.1 4,377.9 1,287.5 359.8 10.4 17.9 9.1 3.4 654.5 808.3 927.7 257.2 333.7 14.7 706.8 -21.3 404.5 13.3 1 ,10 2 .2 5.9 Agriculture........................... Private households............. Special industries'............... Residual 2............................. 12.6 529.9 -7.4 2 12 .1 1 Consists of nonproducing accounting categories to reconcile input- output system with nipa accounts. 2 Residual is shown for the first level only. Subcategories do not neces sarily add to higher categories as a byproduct of chainweighting. of total government employment in 1990, is expected to con tinue to decline to 11.7 percent, shedding an additional 154,000 workers by 2010. Within the goods-producing sector, construction employ ment is expected to grow at an annual rate of 1.2 percent rate, adding 825,000 jobs over the 2000—10 period; manufacturing employment is projected to grow 0.3 percent annually, but only regain its 1990 employment level of 19.1 million workers. Employment in mining industries is expected to contract 1.1 percent annually— losing 55,000 jobs. On the other hand, output for the goods-producing sector is anticipated to keep pace with the service-producing indus tries. Through strong productivity gains, output for the goodsproducing sector is projected to increase by 3.0 percent annu ally (compared with 3.3 percent for the service-producing sec tor), and generate $2.0 trillion in additional output over the projected period. Manufacturing, the dominant goods-produc ing industry, is projected to expand by $1.7 million from its 2000 level of $4.6 trillion. Real output for durable goods manu facturing, projected to grow annually at 4.0 percent, is almost double the expected pace of its nondurable goods counter part. The economy, however, is expected to remain service dominated as that sector’s output reaches $13.1 trillion by 2010. The goods-producing sector, alternatively, is expected https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 1.8 1.0 3.0 2 .2 08 2 6 10.0 4.3 6.5 1.7 3.2 40 1.9 58.7 3.4 3.3 7.9 5.7 7.6 8.8 3.2 4.2 3.1 44 44 2.9 1 1 .2 18.7 7.2 10.9 19.6 5.8 4.2 4.0 3.0 37 1.1 2.2 1.6 - 1.0 1 0 .2 5.7 5.0 4.2 2.1 1.4 2.2 .1 2.1 .1 1.8 .1 2.6 4.6 4.4 4.9 1.9 - 1.0 4.5 -.1 -.1 5.3 28.2 18.6 6.3 7.3 1.5 2.9 .0 S ources : Historical data are from the Bureau of Econoimic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce; projections are from the Bu reau of Labor Statistics. to generate $7.7 trillion in output by 2010. Almost 40 percent of the projected output for the service-producing industries will be attributed to the services division, which is expected to grow at an annual rate of 3.7 percent, to $4.4 trillion in 2010 from $3.0 trillion in 2000. The transportation, communications, and utilities division, as well as the finance, insurance, and real estate division, are expected to be the next two most influ ential sources of output growth— increasing 4.4 and 3.0 per cent, respectively—and generating $1.3 trillion of combined additional output. S e rvice-p ro d u cin g sector Transportation. Jobs in the transportation industries are pro jected to increase at a 1.9-percent annual rate, to 5.5 million jobs in 2010 from 4.5 million jobs in 2000. Output is projected to increase at a 4.2-percent annual rate, which is faster than that of the overall economy, and the 3.2-percent growth this sector experienced during the last decade. Almost a third of the transportation sector’s employment growth and half of its output increases occur in trucking and courier services, ex cept air. (See table 3.) This industry’s above-average pro jected output growth rate of 4.2 percent results in $121.2 bil lion worth of additional output being generated by 2010, and Text co n tin u e s on p a g e 4 7 Monthly Labor Review November 2001 41 Industry Employment Table 3. Employment and output by industry, 1990, 2000, and projected 2010 Employment S tandard Industrial Classification Industry Thousands of jobs Output A v e ra g e annual ra te of c h a n g e C hange 19902000 200010 Billions of c h a in e d 1996 dollars A v e ra g e annual ra te of c h a n g e 19 902000 200010 200010 19902000 Nonfarm wage and salary’ .............. 108,760 130,639 152,447 21,879 21,808 1.8 1.6 - 1.1 -1.5 -3.5 205 2 12 11 -23 - 2.6 -3.5 - 6.2 25 13 26 -29 7 -4.1 -.9 -2.5 0.4 133 12 2 0.6 31 130 28 - .8 22 3.3 - 1.0 -4 825 577 642 73 0.3 2.7 -.3 -.3 1 0 -. 6 -.7 0.0 24 1,182 6,279 4,136 146 18 44 2.6 0.6 0.8 0.1 19 910 4,601 2,785 115 15 34 2.1 2 .2 0.0 15 730 3,022 1,481 106 23 27 25 2.5 0.7 31 36 10 0.9 0.7 17 19 36 72 4.3 3.4 8 10 1.0 0.1 1.2 50 24 7 84 32 14 19 19 57 34 7.2 2.9 6 37 25 7 11 2.8 4.3 2.9 3.7 1990 2000 2010 487 -167 709 543 Mining............................................ 41 -17 Metal m ining................................ 58 35 54 147 77 -69 Coal mining.................................. 131,132 Crude petroleum, natural gas, -67 129 100 196 and gas liquids......................... -17 182 188 198 138 Oil and gas field services........... 14 Nonmetallic minerals, 114 11 0 11 0 3 except fu e ls .............................. 6,698 7,522 1,578 15,16,17 Construction.................................. 5,120 Manufacturing................................. 19,077 18,469 19,047 -607 20-39 29 Durable manufacturing................. 11,109 11,138 11,780 24,25,32-39 832 905 99 24 Lumber and wood products........ 733 85 80 80 -5 241 Logging...................................... 185 -13 198 185 242 Sawmills and planing m ills........ Millwork, plywood, 243 74 262 335 361 and structural members.......... Wood containers and misc. 244,249 12 142 152 wood products........................ 130 Wood buildings and mobile 245 127 31 59 91 homes..................................... 630 52 506 558 25 Furniture and fixtures................. 4 293 283 289 251 Household furniture.................. 12 91 116 254 78 Partitions and fixtures.............. 252,253,259 Office and misc. furniture 174 231 36 138 and fixtures............................. -1 2 160 148 140 321,322,323 Glass and glass products........ 18 18 16 0 324 Hydraulic cement....................... 325,326,328,329 Stone, clay, and miscellaneous 152 -7 172 165 mineral products................... 327 Concrete, gypsum, and plaster 42 206 248 263 products................................. 650 -58 756 698 Primary metal industries............. 33 Blast furnaces and basic 331 -52 225 176 276 steel products......................... 132 123 125 -1 0 332 Iron and steel foundries........... Primary nonferrous smelting 333 34 -10 46 36 and refining.............................. -2 43 All other primary metals............ 46 45 334,339 4 172 176 Nonferrous rolling and drawing .. 173 335 11 84 94 99 Nonferrous foundries................ 336 1,537 1,661 118 34 Fabricated metal products............ 1,419 341 Metal cans and shipping -14 36 26 50 containers................................. Cutlery, hand tools, 342 -1 1 12 1 110 and hardware............................. 131 Plumbing and nonelectric 343 60 55 0 heating equipment..................... 60 344 Fabricated structural metal 72 427 540 498 products.................................... Screw machine products, bolts, 345 11 107 123 96 rivets, etc.................................... 254 30 225 255 Metal forgings and stampings.... 346 Metal coating, engraving, 347 27 191 120 146 and allied services.................... -37 38 35 75 Ordnance and ammunition.......... 348 Miscellaneous fabricated metal 349 277 327 40 237 products.................................... Industrial machinery and 35 2,2 2 2 26 2 ,12 0 equipment.................................. 2,095 -4 89 85 83 Engines and turbines................. 351 10-14 10 12 See footnotes at end of table. 42 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 -55 -6 -11 1.3 25 1.5 1.2 0.3 -.4 2.5 1990 2000 2010 10,672 15,128 20,761 230 16 33 3.6 3.2 0.3 1.2 0.8 2.6 0.4 2.4 2.3 -3.9 3.2 4.0 2.4 1.7 2 .2 2.6 44 1.6 2 .1 23 1.6 1.9 16 2.0 5.1 2.9 111 38 16 4.3 6.5 0.8 5.3 3.0 6.8 1.8 1.2 57 2.3 2.9 -8 -2 -. 8 -.2 -. 6 - 1.0 -13 -.4 -. 8 20 29 32 3.7 1.0 14 —47 1.9 0.6 2.4 200 53 239 3.7 -.7 29 152 42 -. 8 2.8 1.8 - 2.1 -.7 -2.4 65 13 79 18 73 26 1.8 2 2.7 -.7 4.0 -2 -1 -2.5 -.3 -.4 -.3 14 18 21 2.5 10 11 1.6 -3 5 124 0.2 1.2 0.8 - 0.2 0.5 0.8 42 7 176 60 14 273 17 81 19 387 4.5 1.3 4.4 3.1 2.9 3.6 -10 -3.3 -3.3 14 13 18 -0.5 3.7 -1 1 -.9 -.9 16 21 30 2.5 3.6 -5 .0 -. 8 7 11 12 4.6 .9 42 1.6 .8 49 76 10 2 4.5 2.9 16 1.1 1.4 1.3 .0 9 31 26 53 42 70 10.6 -1 5.5 5.0 2.9 2.0 -49 0.2 3.7 6.6 45 -3 2.7 -.9 10 8 17 -6.5 6 32 7 4.9 -3.3 6.8 2 .1 51 1.6 1.7 32 51 74 4.9 3.7 102 -2 0.1 0.5 618 30 1,117 42 6.1 -.2 214 19 11 .2 -.5 4.6 3.6 Table 3. Continued— Employment and output by industry, 1990, 2000, and projected 2010 Employment Standard Industrial Classification Industry Thousands of jobs 1990 352 353 354 355 356 357 358 359 36 361 362 363 364 365 366 367 369 37 371 372,376 373 374 375,379 38 381 382 384 385 386 387 39 391 394 393,395,396,399 20-23,26-31 20 201 202 203 204,207 05 206 Farm and garden machinery and equipment.......... ................ 106 Construction and related machinery................................ 229 Metalworking machinery and equipment........................ 330 Special industry machinery...... 159 General industrial machinery and equipment....................... 247 Computer and office equipment................................ 438 Refrigeration and service industry machinery.................. 177 Industrial machinery, n.e.c......... 320 Electronic and other electric equipment..................................... 1,674 Electric distribution equipment.. 97 Electrical industrial apparatus... 169 Household appliances.............. 124 Electric lighting and wiring equipment................ ............... 189 Household audio and video equipment.................................. 85 Communications equipment........ 264 Electronic components and accessories....................... 582 Miscellaneous electrical equipment.................................. 165 Transportation equipment........... 1,989 Motor vehicles and equipment.... 812 Aerospace ................................... 897 Ship and boat building and repairing.............................. 188 Railroad equipment..................... 33 Miscellaneous transportation equipment................................... 59 Instruments and related products.................................... 1,006 Search and navigation equipment.................................. 284 Measuring and controlling devices...................................... 323 Medical equipment, instruments, and supplies................ ............. 246 Ophthalmic goods......... ............. 43 Photographic equipment and supplies.............................. 100 Watches, clocks, and parts....... 11 Miscellaneous manufacturing industries................................... 375 Jewelry, silverware, and plated ware........................................... 52 Toys and sporting goods............ 104 Manufactured products, n.e.c..... 220 Nondurable manufacturing.......... 7,968 Food amd kindred products........ 1,661 Meat products........................... 422 Dairy products........................... 155 Preserved fruits and vegetables........................ 247 Grain mill products and fats and oils................................... 159 Bakery products.......... ............. 213 Sugar and confectionery products.................................. 99 Output A v e ra g e annual ra te of c h a n g e C hange 19902000 2000 2010 96 105 -9 240 284 11 330 172 330 158 251 260 4 361 350 -76 2 12 373 242 410 35 53 1,719 85 150 116 1,820 77 127 97 45 183 200010 19902000 Billions of c h a in e d 1992 dollars 200010 1990 2000 2010 A v e ra g e a n nu al ra te of c h a n g e 200010 19902000 9 -.9 0.9 18 24 40 3.0 5.3 44 0.5 1.7 33 53 78 4.9 3.9 0 0 -. 8 29 23 38 44 51 40 2.8 -14 .0 .8 0.0 13 6.5 3.0 -0.9 9 .2 .3 34 41 55 2.0 2.9 -1.9 -.3 28 386 1,531 30.1 14.8 30 37 1.8 1.3 1.5 1.0 29 26 47 36 65 72 5.1 3.5 3.2 7.0 102 -8 0.6 154 - 1.0 -1.7 - 1.8 11 20 17 587 15 31 24 984 19 51 26 14.3 3.3 4.2 3.9 5.2 0.5 21 32 42 4.4 2.6 12 2.5 -11 -8 -23 -19 .3 -1.3 - 1.2 -.7 194 -5 11 -.3 .6 80 276 77 290 -5 13 -3 14 -. 6 .5 -.3 .5 9 41 107 18 175 10 .2 4.0 5.0 682 800 100 118 1.6 1.6 29 386 760 29.3 7.0 146 1,849 1,013 551 158 2,063 -19 -140 13 214 87 104 - 1.2 -.7 22 2.2 .8 1.1 .8 -4.8 1.7 411 236 142 32 613 433 136 47 881 665 162 4.0 4.1 6.3 -.4 3.8 3.7 4.4 1.7 -12 -19 5.3 2.0 1,10 0 201 655 -346 166 36 170 38 -2 2 4 - 1.2 .2 20 18 3 2 .8 .7 5 10 17 16 - 1.0 5.9 -.4 5.0 83 99 24 16 3.5 1.8 8 16 22 7.7 3.1 853 869 -153 17 - 1.6 .2 130 177 238 3.2 3.0 154 140 -130 -14 -5.9 - 1.0 40 37 56 -. 6 4.2 302 300 -2 1 -2 -.7 -.1 33 46 74 3.2 4.9 288 33 338 34 50 1.6 1 -2.5 1.6 0.2 33 -1 0 63 4 87 5 6.5 7.3 2.1 70 5 55 -29 -3.4 -7.0 -2.4 -7.2 20 2 15 -6 -15 -3 27 2 1 0 3.2 - 8.1 -5.6 -14.7 394 390 19 -4 0.5 -.1 41 52 79 2.5 4.3 49 104 242 7,331 1,684 504 146 47 109 234 7,267 1,634 542 -3 -2 -.4 .5 -.3 6 11 8 9 36 34 2.6 1.3 8.4 12 1 -10 -64 -50 38 -24 -. 6 .0 1.0 -. 8 .1 1.8 -. 6 220 195 -27 -25 152 204 150 191 -7 -9 -2 92 85 -7 42 0 22 -637 23 82 5 2 - 1.8 23 1,553 411 87 53 16 28 1,835 499 113 59 - 1.2 - 1.2 49 -0.5 -.4 -.1 -13 -.7 -7 -.7 - .8 -8 -.1 -.3 .7 2,220 3.4 3.6 1.9 1.7 2.1 1.9 542 140 67 2.7 1.1 0.8 2.1 1.2 57 45 1.6 -2.3 70 29 87 32 96 35 2 .2 1.0 1.0 1.0 24 28 32 1.7 1.3 2.0 See footnotes at end of table. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monthly Labor Review November 2001 43 Industry Employment Table 3. Continued—Employment and output by industry, 1990, 2000, and projected 2010 Output Employment S tandard Industrial Classification Industry 1990 184 Beverages................................. Miscellaneous food and kindred 182 products..................................... 49 Tobacco products..................... 21 692 Textile mill products.................... 22 Weaving, finishing, yarn, 221-224,226,228 374 and thread m ills....................... Knitting m ills.............................. 205 225 61 Carpets and rugs....................... 227 51 Miscellaneous textile goods..... 229 Apparel and other textile products 1,036 23 832 Apparel...................................... 231-238 Miscellaneous fabricated textile 239 204 products.................................. 697 Paper and allied products........... 26 Pulp, paper, and paperboard 261-263 246 m ills ......................................... Paperboard containers 265 209 and boxes................................ Converted paper products 267 241 except containers................... Printing and publishing............. 1,570 27 474 Newspapers............................... 271 129 Periodicals................................. 272 12 1 Books........................................ 273 82 Miscellaneous publishing.......... 274 Commercial printing 275,276 602 and business form s................ 25 Greeting cards........................... 277 72 Blankbooks and bookbinding.... 278 Service industries for the 279 64 printing tra d e ........................... Chemicals and allied products.... 1,086 28 293 281,286 Industrial chemicals................. 282 Plastics materials 180 and synthetics........................ 237 283 Drugs......................................... 284 Soap, cleaners, and toilet 159 goods ...................................... 61 Paints and allied products........ 285 56 287 Agricultural chemicals................ Miscellaneous chemical 289 100 products.................................. 157 Petroleum and coal products.... 29 Petroleum refining..................... 118 291 Miscellaneous petroleum 295,299 40 and coal products................... Rubber and miscellaneous 30 888 plastic products....................... 84 Tires and inner tubes................ 301 Rubber products and plastic 302,305,306 177 hose and footwear.................. Miscellaneous plastics products, 308 626 n.e.c. Leather and leather products..... 133 31 Footwear, except rubber 313,314 80 and plastic................................. Luggage, handbags, and leather 311,315-317,313 53 products, n.e.c........................... Transportation, communication, 40—42,44-49 and utlitlies.................................... 5,776 Transportation.............................. 3,510 40—42,44-47 279 Railroad transportation............. 40 Local and interurban passenger 41 338 tra n s it...................................... 208 209 See footnotes at end of table. 44 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 A verage annual ra te of c h a n g e C ha nge Thousands of jobs 1990- 200010 2000 19902000 200010 2000 2010 187 165 3 180 34 529 185 29 500 -15 -163 284 126 250 66 54 633 418 73 57 530 315 -403 -414 215 657 215 626 11 0 .5 .0 -40 -3T - .6 199 176 -48 -23 218 2 10 9 -8 240 1,547 442 149 126 95 240 1,545 432 165 136 105 -1 -2 2 -3 -33 -10 603 25 60 585 27 55 47 1,038 218 120 -2 -90 -80 5 2 -2 2 .2 5 -5 -29 -3.6 -2.7 -34 -6 7 3 -103 -103 0 -.1 -2.7 -4.8 .7 .5 -4.8 -6.7 A v e ra g e annual ra te of c h a n g e Billions of c h a in e d 1992 dollars 1990 19 902000 2010 2000 200010 -1.3 66 85 89 2.6 .4 .3 - 1.6 39 36 78 42 39 1.0 .2 0.7 -. 6 35 36 69 86 1.3 -1.3 -.5 34 15 11 8 41 18 15 1.4 1.1 .6 - 1.8 - 2.8 39 15 14 10 68 12 2.4 .3 1.2 2.0 2.6 .0 1.6 .8 1.0 0.4 1.7 65 47 44 87 51 -.6 1.3 -.5 18 149 23 168 36 195 2.6 1.2 4.7 1.5 - 2.1 - 1.2 64 59 65 -.8 0.9 0.4 -.4 36 45 50 2 .2 1.2 -.1 -.1 .0 .0 -.2 1.0 2.2 1.1 -.2 11 79 240 43 44 31 27 1.0 - 1.0 1.0 64 214 44 38 23 18 2.7 0.7 49 195 48 25 24 4.0 -.5 4.5 1.5 2.9 4.3 -.3 71 4 76 4 .6 .1 6 6 79 4 7 .4 -.3 .3 -.7 1.5 .4 1.5 20 16 5 13 10 10 1 0 -18 1 .0 .0 -13 -4 -1.9 0.6 -. 8 40 1,081 190 -16 -48 -75 -7 43 -28 -2.9 -.5 -2.9 - 1.6 .4 -1.4 5 337 116 5 403 154 315 130 390 -26 78 -24 75 -1.5 2.9 -1.7 52 63 69 99 155 52 51 164 56 56 -4 -9 -5 9 4 5 -.3 -1.7 -.9 .6 47 16 20 22 93 128 85 95 113 65 -7 -30 -33 2 -15 -2 0 -.7 - 2.1 -3.3 - 1.2 - 2.6 43 48 3 5 .8 1,0 11 1,166 82 123 -5 156 1.3 79 2 -. 6 187 184 10 -2 .6 744 72 900 44 118 -62 156 -27 30 14 -50 41 30 7,019 4,529 236 476 1.5 -.9 3.3 -.7 5 560 94 -1.4 101 2.8 171 4.7 2.9 25 89 28 36 23 171 157 27 189 169 38 208 181 1.7 .7 3.5 .9 .7 1.0 14 21 27 3.6 2.5 1.4 .3 11 0 12 170 15 253 23 4.5 2.5 4.0 4.4 -.1 18 26 34 3.4 2.8 1.7 - 6.0 1.9 4.7 79 129 10 196 5 5.0 10 -.2 4.2 -6.3 -16 -9.3 -7.2 5 3 2 -6.3 -1.5 -1 2 -11 -2.5 -3.2 6 8 4 3.2 -6.4 8,274 5,466 175 1243 1019 -43 1255 937 -60 2.0 2.6 -1.7 1.7 1.9 -2.9 931 387 35 1,278 531 37 1,962 798 48 3.2 3.2 .5 4.4 4.2 2.7 624 138 148 3.5 2.7 21 24 31 1.4 2.5 2 .2 .7 .9 .2 100 63 .1 1.8 1.8 1.2 1.0 4.0 5.6 3.6 3.8 3.7 Table 3. Continued— Employment and output by industry, 1990, 2000, and projected 2010 Employment Standard Industrial Classification 42 421,423 422 44 45 46 47 472 473,474,478 48 481-2,489 484 483 49 491 492 493 494-497 50,51 2-59 52-57,59 58 60-67 60 61,67 62 63 64 65 Industry Trucking and warehousing........ Trucking and courier services except a ir ................................ Warehousing and storage......... Water transportation................. Air transportation....... ............... Pipelines, except natural gas.... Transportation services............ Passenger transportation arrangement............................ Miscellaneous transportation services..................................... Communications......................... Telephone communications and services............................ Cable and pay television services................................... Radio and tv Broadcasting....... U tilities........................................ Electric utilities......................... Gas utilities............................... Combined utilities..................... Water and sanitation................ Wholesale trade........................... Retail trade.................................. Retail trade excluding eating and drinking places...... Eating and drinking places....... Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate...................... Depository institutions.............. Nondepository; holding and investment offices.................. Security and commodity brokers.................................... Insurance carriers.................... Insurance agents, brokers, and service.............................. Real estate............................... Royalties................................... Owner-occupied dwellings...... Thousands of jobs Output A v e ra g e a n n u a ra te of c h a n g e Change 19902000 200010 19902000 200010 1990 2000 2,262 460 407 2.9 2.0 163 255 1,649 206 196 1,281 14 471 1,962 300 208 1,600 313 94 13 319 2.6 1.8 154 5.8 3.8 10 1.0 2.8 .6 2.2 37 96 8 114 -3.0 3.4 -1.7 585 371 89 19 314 -5 135 2 .2 188 219 235 30 17 1.5 148 1,309 253 1,639 350 1,916 105 330 97 277 950 1,168 1,310 218 126 216 325 90 234 255 280 22 957 851 893 -106 454 357 324 -98 165 128 120 -37 193 152 138 -41 145 214 310 69 6,173 7,024 7,800 851 19,601 23,307 26,400 3,706 -14 96 776 3,093 - 1.2 -2.4 -2.5 -2.4 4.0 1.3 1.7 13,092 15,194 16,800 2 ,10 2 6,509 8,114 9,600 1,605 1,606 1,486 1.5 1.0 2 .2 1.7 687 -31 1.2 0.9 - 1.0 1990 2000 2010 1,395 1,856 1,278 117 177 968 19 336 11 200010 394 4.6 4.4 359 35 50 192 9 73 4.4 26 237 17 40 125 7 43 5.1 4.2 7.2 2.3 4.4 3.3 5.5 .7 10 19 34 6.7 6.0 5.5 2.3 3.3 16 245 24 419 40 750 4.0 5.5 5.2 1.6 143 2.1 1.2 185 341 638 6.3 6.5 109 25 42 -33 5.5 0.9 4.2 0.9 0.5 26 35 299 176 35 45 326 2.8 2.6 5.7 2.7 2.5 -2 -8 .9 2.6 - 2.2 60 1,2 2 2 652 245 926 298 1,237 393 3.6 2.9 2.0 2 8 -.2 1,198 266 1,806 446 2,429 596 4.2 5.3 3.0 2.9 70 12 2 152 5.8 2 .2 57 292 228 540 259 17.7 6.4 1.3 81 653 96 631 103 822 191 943 1.8 2.0 5.8 2.5 2,057 85 5 76 3,032 108 7 4,378 136 4.0 2.5 10 2.8 101 147 2.9 .4 22 4.6 20 28 64 40 0.8 26 25 40 26 1.6 .8 1.2 2.6 4.9 4.5 10 4.1 713 47 50 14 1,278 67 71 1.0 1.2 9 342 27 31 7.6 5.8 5.0 3.5 3.6 3.0 9.7 3.6 4.1 28 38 101 60 167 10 .2 10.5 3.8 6.4 3.7 99 119 278 198 601 313 10.8 8.0 5.2 4.7 3.2 2.0 104 166 286 4.8 5.6 2.7 1.7 17 63 151 14.0 9.1 -. 6 - 1.0 3.8 1.1 1.3 8,247 1,999 593 932 1,075 339 143 4.6 1.4 424 1,462 748 1,589 900 1,632 324 127 152 43 5.8 0.8 1.9 0.3 663 1,315 — — 757 1,504 — — 865 1,776 — — 93 189 — — 109 272 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.7 — — — — — Services...................................... 27,291 39,340 52,233 12,049 12,893 Hotels........................................ 1,578 1,845 2,10 0 267 255 Other lodging places................ 53 67 67 14 0 Personal services...................... 1,104 1,251 1,354 147 103 Laundry, cleaning, and shoe repair...................... 433 451 470 18 19 722,729 Personal services, n.e.c............. 200 266 287 66 21 723,724 Beauty and barber shops........... 389 433 490 44 57 726 Funeral service and crematories............................... 83 101 107 18 6 73 Business services....................... 5,139 9,858 14,923 4,719 5,064 731 Advertising................................. 235 302 400 68 98 734 Services to buildings.................. 807 994 1 ,1 2 0 188 126 735 Miscellaneous equipment rental and leasing................................ 208 279 397 71 118 736 Personnel supply services......... 1,535 3,887 5,800 2,353 1,913 737 Computer and data processing services..................................... 772 2,095 3,900 1,323 1,805 732,733,738 Miscellaneous business services 1,584 2,301 3,305 717 1,004 75 Auto repair, services, and garages.............................. 914 1,248 1,527 335 278 751 Automotive rentals, without drivers........................... 173 225 265 52 41 See footnotes at end of table. 3.7 1.6 2.9 1.3 2.3 1.3 .0 .8 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 6.2 32 24 608 897 - 1.0 7,560 2,029 851 2010 60 59 417 275 63 46 34 1,410 1,628 6,709 2,251 -2 2 1 A v e ra g e annual ra te of c h a n g e 19902000 — 70-87,89 701 702-704 72 721,725 Billions of c h a in e d 1992 dollars 0.4 2.9 1.1 2.0 .6 6.7 4.2 2.9 2.6 2.1 2 12 49 38 29 920 66 2 11 68 535 55 493 39 Monthly Labor Review 0.9 1.9 -3.0 1.5 1.8 2.6 2.6 2 .1 1.8 4.2 3.1 4.4 29 0.8 3.2 November 2001 2.4 2.3 7.1 4.1 3.7 2.3 4.7 38 6.0 4.4 5.1 45 Industry Employment Table 3. Continued— Employment and output by industry, 1990, 2000, and projected 2010 Output Employment S tandard Industrial Classification Industry 1990 752-754 76 762 763,764 769 78 781-783 784 79 792 793 794 791,799 80 801-804 805 806 807-809 81 82 83 832,839 833 835 836 84 86 87,89 871 873 874 872,89 Automobile parking, repair, and services............................ Miscellaneous repair shops........ Electrical repair shops.............. Watch, jewelry, and furniture repair....................................... Miscellaneous repair services.... Motion pictures.......................... Motion pictures.......................... Video tape rental......................... Amusement and recreation services...................................... Producers, orchestras, and entertainers....................... Bowling centers........................... Commercial sports....................... Amusement and recreation services, n.e.c........................... Health Services............................. Offices of health practitioners.... Nursing and personal care facilities..................................... Hospitals..................................... Health services, n.e.c................ Legal services............................. Educational services.................. Social services............................ Individual and miscellaneous social services........................ Job training and related services................................... Child day care services............ Residential care......................... Museums, botanical, zoological gardens..................................... Membership organizations.......... Engineering, management, and other services................... Engineering and architectural services..................................... Research and testing services ... Management and public relations..................................... Accounting, auditing, and other services..................................... Government................................... Federal Government................... Federal enterprises................... U.S. Postal Service.................. Federal electric utilities.............. Federal government enterprises, n.e.c......................................... Federal general government..... Federal government capital services................................... State and local government....... State and local enterprises...... Local government passenger tra n s it...................................... State and local electric utilities . State and local government enterprises, n.e.c..................... State and local general government.............................. 1990- 2 0 0 0 10 2000 19902000 200010 2000 2010 1,262 405 103 283 -9 238 39 -.2 112 1,024 366 104 -8 -1 -.7 30 233 408 274 134 29 233 594 426 168 27 275 672 499 173 0 -1 -2 -.1 .0 186 152 34 42 78 73 5 3.8 4.5 2.3 1.2 1.6 1,076 1,728 2,325 652 597 136 91 181 81 153 225 70 180 44 -10 741 374 45 -11 A v e ra g e annual ra te of c h a n g e Billions of c h a in e d 1992 dollars 1990 2000 2010 19 902000 200010 87 44 15 103 51 15 136 62 14 1.7 1.5 -.3 2.8 2.1 -.2 -. 8 2 1.7 3 33 77 69 9 5 43 .3 26 45 40 5 77 9 3.5 2.3 5.7 5.6 5.8 2.8 1.1 1.1 .6 4.9 3.0 75 137 2 12 6.2 4.4 2.9 - 1.2 4.2 2 .2 -1.5 1.7 18 4 13 28 3 15 35 3 19 4.6 -2.4 1.4 2.3 - 2.0 1.9 3.5 2.5 3.4 40 595 254 91 762 317 156 882 374 8.4 2.5 2.3 5.6 1.5 1.7 2.0 1.2 69 292 84 143 113 103 85 315 108 195 142 171 2.4 2.1 0.8 3.1 2.5 3.2 2.3 5.2 3.3 2.1 1.0 -.1 86 3.2 52 28 566 748 1,314 1,850 7,814 10,095 12,934 2,281 933 2,166 3,099 4,344 536 2,839 1,245 394 510 690 340 527 1,225 2.4 3.4 5.3 2.1 3.6 55 236 52 134 91 76 31 47 77 4.1 5.1 14 40 41 .2 2.0 4.8 5.2 5.5 101 5.8 2.6 3.6 1,415 3,549 685 908 1,661 1,734 1,796 3,990 2,325 2,903 2,190 381 442 4,500 525 1,900 102 1,350 664 2,852 4,128 1,169 634 1,005 1,300 372 295 4.7 2.6 248 391 461 380 712 806 500 4.3 2.8 9 298 512 6.2 5.7 3.6 5.0 20 1,318 131 321 345 120 1,0 10 16 9 24 24 66 106 2,475 135 2,734 40 529 29 259 4.9 2.4 2.4 9 5.0 1.0 3 79 6 1,945 96 12 2 2.0 4.6 2.4 2,516 3,469 4,729 953 1,260 3.3 3.1 290 434 640 4.1 3.9 786 549 1,017 642 1,330 231 94 313 244 2.6 1.6 2.7 3.3 103 39 133 67 2 11 2.6 886 108 5.6 4.7 4.9 610 1,090 1,550 479 460 6.0 3.6 79 147 195 6.5 2.8 571 720 963 149 18,304 20,680 22,436 2,376 3,085 2,777 2,622 -308 975 952 -51 1,026 41 850 860 819 -4 27 22 31 243 1,757 -154 -23 2.3 3.0 127 1,287 360 94 74 1.1 - 1.0 2.1 1.0 0.2 -.5 0.5 -1.3 87 1,162 353 85 65 3.8 .8 -.6 -.2 -.1 - 2.2 70 1,043 389 69 55 2.3 1.2 - 1.0 -6.7 -1.3 -.8 1,2 1 0 1,0 10 177 2,059 1,802 80 1,671 -89 -257 _ _ _ 88 -1 0 -5 -8 -131 1.2 5.9 1.1 4.6 2.9 -.9 6 11 10 9 256 10 200 190 65 655 103 808 139 78 928 189 10 2.1 5.0 .7 2.1 4.2 1.7 5.8 0.9 1.4 -1.4 .9 -2.4 .5 -.5 .5 1.3 1.4 3.2 _ _ _ _ 15,219 17,903 19,814 2,684 -44 918 869 913 1,911 49 1.6 1.0 .5 .5 .7 .1 6 .7 19 7 24 28 1.9 2.4 0.6 .8 68 8 2 .1 3.1 207 82 223 89 225 95 16 7 2 6 624 557 598 -67 41 - 1.1 0.7 77 107 154 3.3 3.7 14,306 17,034 18,896 2,728 1,862 1.8 1.0 552 670 738 2.0 1.0 See footnotes at end of table. 46 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis A v e ra g e an nu al ra te of c h a n g e C ha nge Thousands of jobs November 2001 1.3 Table 3. Continued— Employment and output by industry, 1990, 2000, and projected 2010 Employment S tandard Industrial Classification Industry State and local government hospitals.................................... State and local government education................................... State and local general government, n.e.c...................... State and local government capital services....................... 01,02,07,08,09 01,0 2 07 074 078 07(excl. 074 and 078) 08,09 88 Agriculture ?.................................. Agricultural production.............. Agricultural services...... ............. Veterinary services.................... Landscape and horticultural services................................... The>usands of jobs 1990 2000 1,072 970 948 A v e ra g e an n u a l rate of c h a n g e Change 1990- 20002000 10 19902000 200010 Billions of c h a in e d 1992 dollars A v e ra g e annual ra te of c h a n g e 1990 2000 2010 19902000 200010 -10 2 -2 2 - 1.0 -.2 42 45 51 0.8 1 2 7,771 9,472 10,548 1,700 1,076 2.0 1.1 265 303 302 13 on 5,462 6,592 808 1.9 1.2 199 227 255 1.3 1 2 — 46 96 135 7.5 3.5 257 405 315 70 2.6 2.2 8 334 260 58 16 20 4.8 67 19 19 19 2.5 2.7 - 7,400 1,130 — — — — — 3,340 2,174 1,166 143 3,526 1,979 1,548 240 3,849 1,824 2,025 336 186 -196 382 97 323 -155 477 96 0.5 - 1.1 2.9 5.3 0.9 -.7 2.7 3.4 576 808 1,093 233 285 3.5 3.1 18 27 36 4.4 403 501 63 99 1.7 2 .2 10 15 14 3.9 97 95 890 664 8,731 Agricultural, forestry and fisheries services, n.e.c............ 339 Forestry, fishing, hunting, and trapping............................ 108 Private household wage and sa la ry................................... 1,014 Nonagricultural self-employed and unpaid family3'4 ................. 8,921 Secondary wage and salary jobs in agriculture (except agricultural service); forestry, fishing, hunting, and trapping; private households6 ................ 205 Secondary jobs as a selfemployed worker or unpaid family worker6 ............... 2,084 Total7'8 ...................... 2010 Output -11 2 10 36 -2 - 1.1 -.2 12 15 19 25 -124 -226 -1.3 -2.9 13 15 13 15 9,062 -190 331 -.2 .4 155 150 -50 -5 - 2.8 -.3 1,652 1,582 -432 -70 -2.3 -.4 124,324 145,594 67,754 21,269 22,160 1.6 1.4 16,180 22,286 3.5 1 Excludes sic 074,5,8 (agricultural serivces) and 99 (nonclassifiable establishments). The data therefore are not exactly comparable with data published in E m p lo ym en t a n d Earnings. 2 Excludes government wage and salary workers, and inlcudes private sector for sic 08,09 (forestry, hunting, and trapping; and private households). 3 Excludes sic 08,09 (forestry, fishing, hunting, and trapping). 1,472 ?3 -ID 3.3 7 Wage and salary data are from the Current Employment Statistics (payroll) survey, which counts jobs, whereas self-employed, unpaid family workers, agricultural, forestry, fishing, hunting, and trapping, and private household data are from the Current Population Survey (household survey), which counts workers. 8 Subcategories do not necessarily add to higher categories as a by product of chainweighting. 4 Comparable estimate of output growth is not available. 5 Workers who hold a secondary wage and salary job in agriculture (except agricultural services); forestry, fishing, hunting, and trapping; and private households. 6Wage and salary workers who hold a secondary wage and salary job as a self-employed or unpaid family worker. is one of the largest sources of output growth projected for the economy. With accompanying employment gains of 313,000, rising to more than 1.9 million in 2010 from 1.6 million in 2000, this industry is also expected to be one of the economy’s largest sources of employment growth. Comple menting the trucking industry, the warehouse and storage industry is expected to be one of the fastest employment and https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis N ote : Dash indicates data not available, n.e.c. = not elsewhere classified. S ources : Historical output data are from the Bureau of Economic Analy sis, U.S. Department of Commerce. output gainers—increasing by 3.8 percent to 300,000 jobs in 2010, up from 206,000 in 2000. Output for this industry is pro jected to grow at an aggressive 7.2 percent, and reach $34.9 million by 2010. The effect of electronic commerce and expan sion into logistical services such as computer inventory man agement and just-in-time shipping has been the driving force for growth in these industries. As manufacturers continue to Monthly Labor Review November 2001 47 Industry Employment improve supply chain efficiencies by outsourcing their distri bution needs, the trucking and warehouse industries will have more visible roles in the economy. Due to increases in population, disposable income, and domestic and foreign business activity, the air transportation industry is projected to be another sector that stands out. Employment is expected to increase at a healthy 2.2 percent annually over the projected period, resulting in 319,000 new jobs. The projected output growth rate of 4.4 percent sur passes the 2.6-percent rate experienced during the last de cade and results in a $66.6 billion increase. Communications. With a 6-percent projected output growth rate, the communications sector is the fastest growing sector in the economy. Spurred by deregulation and technological innovation, real output for this sector is expected to increase by $330.9 billion between 2000 and2010, to reach $750.2 bil lion by 2010. Employment is projected to increase by 277,000 and attain 1.9 million jobs by 2010. Accounting for almost a third of this sector’s employment and 80 percent of its output in 2000, the telephone and telegraph communications and communication service industry is this sector’s dominant in dustry. Strong residential and business demand for improved wireline and wireless systems will ensure this industry’s pro longed growth. Technology and competition are expected to continue working concurrently to lower prices, increase de mand, and spur new innovations. This will result in this in dustry being the 6th largest and 10th fastest in terms of out put. Real annual output growth of 6.5 percent is anticipated, resulting in an increase of $297.1 billion over the projected period. Deregulation has accentuated this trend by allowing this industry to offer a variety of services, such as high speed Internet access. As the above-mentioned developments progress, the dis tinctions between the telephone and the cable and pay televi sion industries will continue to blur. Specifically, industry deregulation and fiber optic technology have enabled the cable and pay television services industry, which was solely a pay television service, to expand into new telecommunication services such as high-speed Internet access, telephone com munication, and digital television programming. This has re sulted in the cable and pay television industry being in the top 20 in terms of output growth pace. Real annual output growth of 5.7 percent is projected, a $25.4 billion increase over the 2000 level. Similarly, the industry’s employment is pro jected to grow to 325,000jobs in 2010, up from 216,000 in 2000, making the resulting 4.2-percent growth rate the fourth fast est in the economy. (See tables 4 and 5.) Retail trade. The retail trade industry, excluding eating and drinking places, is the Nation’s largest employer, with about 48 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 15.2 million jobs in 2000. Even though the projected employ ment annual growth rate of 1 percent represents a slowdown relative to the past decade, this industry, by adding 1.6 million new jobs and reaching 16.8 million jobs by 2010, will continue to be the dominant source of employment. Real output for retail trade, excluding eating and drinking places, is projected to grow to $ 1.2 trillion in 2010 from $926.1 billion in 2000, or at an average annual rate of 2.9 percent. The eating and drinking industry, which is expected to add about 1.5 million jobs, also plays a principal job creation role in the economy. Demo graphic factors such as increases in population, personal in comes, leisure time, and dual-income families will contribute to employment in this industry increasing to 9.6 million from 8.1 million during the 2000-10 projection period. Output for eating and drinking places is projected to increase at an an nual average rate of 2.8 percent. Wholesale trade. Employment in the wholesale trade industry is projected to increase by 776,000, reaching 7.8 million in 2010, up from 7.0 million in 2000. Real output is expected to expand by nearly $489.3 billion between 2000 and 2010, to $ 1.4 trillion from $920 trillion. Due in part to its relative size, this ranks the wholesale trade industry as one of the main sources of employment and output growth over the projections pe riod. Employment’s projected annual growth rate of 1.1 per cent is constrained by consolidations and productivity-en hancing technology such as e-commerce.4 However, reflect ing the 4.4-percent growth rate in output, the economy will still need the valuable supply and distribution services pro vided by the wholesale trade industry. Finance, insurance, and real estate. Employment in the fi nance, insurance, and real estate sector is projected to in crease by 687,000, up from its 2000 level of 7.6 million. This reflects an annual growth rate of 0.9 percent, slower than the total nonfarm wage and salary increase (1.6 percent) and caused, in part, by deregulation, industry consolidation, heightened competition, and technology-driven productivity gains. However, reflecting aggressive output gains in the security and commodity brokers industry, real estate, and de pository institutions— all in the top 20 in terms o f output growth—the finance, insurance, and real estate sector’s pro jected output growth rate of 2.9 percent keeps pace with the overall economy. Real output is projected to increase to $2.4 trillion in 2010, up from $1.8 trillion in 2000. Depository institutions, which include commercial banks, credit unions, and savings and loans, are projected to con tinue shedding jobs. Trends such as electronic home bank ing, the increased use of A TM machines and debit cards, and improved credit scoring software that streamlines the loan approval process will underline a projected job loss o f31,000, Table 4. Industries with the fastest and slowest wage and salary employment growth, 2000-2010 Thousands of jobs S tandard Industrial Classification C ha nge A v e ra g e annual ra te of c h a n g e Industry description 2000 2010 20 00-1 0 2000-1 0 2,094.9 805.9 1 ,2 10 .2 215.8 3,887.0 206.3 213.9 2,300.9 279.4 1,089.7 711.9 1,313.6 3,098.8 90.8 240.0 252.8 808.0 642.3 720.0 1,009.6 3,900.0 1,318.0 1,900.0 325.0 5,800.0 300.0 310.3 3,305.0 397.5 1,550.0 1 ,010.0 1,850.0 4,344.0 127.0 335.9 350.0 109.3 1,805.1 512.1 689.8 109.2 1,913.0 93.7 96.4 1,004.1 118.1 460.3 298.1 536.4 1,245.2 36.2 95.9 97.2 285.0 243.7 243.0 340.4 6.4 5.0 4.6 4.2 4.1 38 38 37 36 3.6 3.6 35 3.4 3.4 34 3.3 3.1 33 3.0 2.9 5.3 30.1 77.2 35.9 41.4 235.5 890.0 417.9 84.6 129.3 70.2 224.5 27.0 145.5 116.2 13.7 154.3 150.4 47.2 33.9 2.5 14.2 54.0 25.6 30.0 175.0 664.4 314.9 65.0 - 2.8 -15.9 -23.2 -10.3 -11.4 -60.5 -225.6 -103.0 -19.6 -29.3 -15.2 -48.5 -5.4 -24.4 -19.3 -2.2 -24.3 -23.4 -7.2 -5.0 -7 2 -7.2 -3.5 -3 3 -3 2 -2 9 -2 9 - 2.8 Fastest grow ing 737 836 807-809 484 736 422 494-497 732,733,738 735 874 835 791,799 801-804 245 4 473,474,478 78 873 872,89 81 Computer and data processing services.................... Residential c a re ................................................. Health services, n.e.c.................................... Cable and pay television services............................. Personnel supply services...................................... Warehousing and storage.................................. Waterand sanitation....... ...................................... Miscellaneous business services......................... Miscellaneous equipment rental and leasing.............. Management and public relations................................ Child day care services........................... Amusement and recreation services, n.e.c........... Offices of health practitioners........................... Wood buildings and mobile homes..................... Veterinary services................................ Miscellaneous transportation services................. Landscape and horticultural services....................... Research and testing services.................................. Accounting, auditing, and other services................. Legal services................. ......................... 886.0 963.0 1,350.0 Most rap id ly d e clin in g 387 313,314 12 341 311,315-317,319 40 88 231-238 291 131,132 386 331 202 363 46 282 362 279 21 Note: Watches, clocks, and parts...................................... Footwear, except rubber and plastic..................... Coalmining..................... ........................ Metal cans and shipping containers...................... Luggage, handbags, and leather products, n.e.c....... Railroad transportation............................... Private households............................................ Apparel .................................................. Petroleum refining............................. Crude petroleum, natural gas, and gas liquids........... Photographic equipment and supplies....................... Blast furnaces and basic steel products............. Federal electric utilities................................... Dairy products............................................. Household appliances...................................... Pipelines, except natural gas.................................... Plastics materials and synthetics............................... Electrical industrial apparatus.............................. Service industries for the printing trade..................... Tobacco products............................................... 100.0 55.0 176.0 2 1.6 1 2 1 .1 96.9 11.5 130.0 127.0 40.0 28.9 -2 6 -2 5 -2.4 -2.4 -2 2 -1 8 -1.8 -1 7 -1 7 -1.7 -1 6 - 1.6 n.e.c. = not elsewhere classified. ranking it in the top 10 largest employment declines. This is contrasted by the $ 150 billion output growth over the period, reaching $596.3 billion in 2010 (the 2000 level was 446.2 mil lion). With recent industry deregulation, the traditional bound aries between banking and other financial services continue to be obscured as banks begin to offer financial planning, brokerage, and insurance services, a trend that should help mitigate employment declines, while fostering output growth. The security and commodity brokers industry is expected to be one of the fastest growing sources of annual output growth—6.4 percent. Baby-boomers entering the middle of https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis their peak savings years, the growth of tax-favorable retire ment plans, and the globalization of security and commodity markets will contribute to this industry, growing by $248.7 billion to an output level of $540.4 billion—almost double the 2000 level. Employment, adversely effected by telecommuni cation and computer technology that automates transactions, will create less than half as many jobs over the projected 200010 period (152,000) than over the previous 10 years (324,000). This industry’s projected total employment o f900,000 repre sents a 1.9-percent annual growth rate, compared with the 5.8percent rate experienced over the 1990-2000 historical period. Monthly Labor Review November 2001 49 Industry Employment Table 5. Industries with the fastest and slowest output growth, 2000-10 S tandard Industrial Classification Industry description Billions of c h a in e d (1996) dollars C ha nge 2000 2010 2 0 00-1 0 385.7 63.2 16.1 278.2 17.5 96.2 36.4 386.3 16.7 340.8 291.7 18.8 34.5 98.6 90.8 23.8 23.7 30.6 24.3 24.0 1,531.1 150.8 36.2 600.8 34.9 191.2 71.9 759.9 32.2 637.9 540.4 33.6 59.9 170.5 156.4 40.9 39.8 51.1 40.4 39.7 1,145.4 87.7 A v e ra g e an nu al ra te of c h a n g e 2 0 00-1 0 Fastest grow ing Computer and office equipment............................... Automotive rentals, without drivers......................... Toys and sporting goods......................................... Computer and data processing services................ Warehousing and storage........................................ Royalties.................................................................. Industrial machinery, n.e.c....................................... Electronic components and accessories................ Metal coating, engraving, and allied services........ Telephone communications and services............... Security and commodity brokers............................. Passenger transportation arrangement.................. Cable and pay television services........................... Drugs........................................................................ Amusement and recreation services, n.e.c............. Residential care....................................................... Farm and garden machinery and equipment........... Electrical industrial apparatus................................. Child daycare services............................................ Miscellaneous transportation services................... 357 751 394 737 422 n.a. 359 367 347 481-2,489 62 472 484 283 791,799 836 352 362 835 473,474,478 20.1 322.6 17.4 95.0 35.5 373.6 15.4 297.1 248.7 14.8 25.4 72.0 65.6 17.0 16.0 20.4 16.1 15.7 14.8 9.1 8.4 8.0 7.2 7.1 7.0 7.0 6.8 6.5 6.4 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 M ost ra p id ly d e clin in g 387 311,315-317,319 386 203 793 313,314 138 88 355 279 331 281,286 373 277 762 271 278 N ote : Watches, clocks, and p a rts.................................... Luggage, handbags, and leather products, n.e.c. .. Photographic equipment and supplies.................... Preserved fruits and vegetables............................. Bowling centers....................................................... Footwear, except rubber and plastic...................... Federal electric utilities............................................ Oil and gas field services........................................ Private households.................................................. Special industry machinery..................................... Service industries for the printing trad e ................. Blast furnaces and basic steel products................ Industrial chemicals................................................. Federal general government.................................... Ship and boat building and repairing........................ Greeting cards......................................................... Electrical repair shops............................................. Newspapers............................................................. State and local government education.................... Blankbooks and bookbinding................................... 0.7 7.7 27.2 56.9 3.2 2.5 10.9 30.7 14.7 43.7 5.2 78.6 100.4 200.1 17.6 4.2 14.7 43.8 302.9 6.4 0.1 -.6 4.0 15.3 45.0 -3.7 -11.9 -11.9 2.6 2 .2 -.6 9.5 27.7 13.3 39.8 4.8 73.0 94.0 189.9 17.0 4.1 14.4 43.0 301.6 6.6 -.3 -1.4 -3.0 -1.4 -3.9 -.4 -5.6 -6.4 - 10 .2 -.6 -.1 -.3 - .8 - 1.2 0.2 -14.7 -6.4 -5.6 -2.3 - 2.0 -1.5 -1.4 - 1.0 - 1.0 -.9 -.9 -.7 -.7 -.5 -.4 -.3 -.2 -.2 0.0 0.3 n.e.c. = not elsewhere classified. Real estate employment is projected to rise to 1.8 mil lion (from 1.5 million) between 2000 and 2010, slightly faster than that of the overall economy. A general population increase and the shift in its age distribution over the next 10 years will also contribute to output expanding by 2.3 percent annually, a continuation of the rate experienced over the previous decade. This industry will continue to see productivity and efficiency increases as agents use the Internet to disseminate housing, credit, and payment information, along with wireless products that can trans mit data on site. 50 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 Services. The variety of industries that make up the services industry, a subset of the service-producing sector, will collec tively account for 3 out of every 5 new jobs created in the U.S. economy between 2000 and 2010. Businesses within this sec tor supply services to a wide variety of other businesses and to individuals. The services industry will contribute 12.9 mil lion of the 21.8 million increase expected in nonfarm wage and salary employment through 2010. Service industry employ ment is expected to reach 52.2 million jobs in 2010, up from 39.3 million in 2000. This 2.9-percent increase is the highest annual growth rate of any industry division. Business services. Employment for the business services group increased by 4.7 million over the 1990-2000 period, post ing a 6.7-percent annual growth rate. The projected 2000-10 employment increase of almost 5.1 million translates into 14.9 million total jobs, and represents an annual growth rate of 4.2 percent. Despite the relative slowdown in the rate of employ ment growth, business services are expected to be the fastest growing industry group in the services division. Real output in the business services sector is also projected to grow strongly to $ 1.3 trillion in 2010 from $713 billion in 2000, or at a division leading average annual rate of 6.0 percent. The economy’s fastest growing industry, and the second largest in terms of employment, is computer and data process ing services. Firms in this industry provide prepackaged and specialized software, data and computer systems design and management, and various computer-related consulting ser vices. Reflecting businesses’ need to integrate new technolo gies, capitalize on software enhancements, expand Internet usage and electronic commerce, and maintain network secu rity, this industry is projected to gain 1.8 million jobs over the 2000-10 period, the result of 6.4-percent annual average growth. The persistent evolution of technology and busi nesses’ constant efforts to absorb and integrate these re sources in order to enhance their productivity and expand their market opportunities will be the growth catalysts in com puter and data processing services. Resonating this trend, this industry is also expected to be both the fourth fastest and largest source of output growth in the economy by 2010. Output is expected to reach $600.8 billion by 2010 (an increase by $322.6 billion from its 2000 level), reflecting an 8.0-percent average annual growth rate. The largest source of employment growth in the economy is projected to be the personnel supply services industry. (See table 6.) This business services industry, comprising employ ment agencies and temporary staffing services, is projected to add 1.9 million jobs, to 5.8 million in 2010 from 3.9 million in 2000. Staffing services will be responsible for the majority of this industry’s aggressive growth, as businesses endeavor to become more responsive to changes in market demand. How ever, as companies also strive to reduce costs by contracting out their preliminary employment screening tasks, this sector’s employment agency portion will experience growth as well. Strong employment and output growth is projected in the miscellaneous business services industry. This industry pro vides a wide variety of services ranging from credit reporting and collection agencies to photocopying, graphic design, and paralegal services. Between 2000 and 2010, real output is ex pected to expand to $312.8 billion from $ 197.7 billion, and em ployment, to 3.3 million jobs from 2.3 million. The miscella neous equipment rental and leasing industry is another busi ness service whose employment is expected to grow faster than the overall economy. This industry engages in the rental https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and leasing of equipment primarily to the medical and con struction industries. The projected 3.6-percent average an nual growth rate yields 118,100 new jobs by 2010. Health services. Approximately 71.7 million people are ex pected to be 55 or older by 2010, 15.4 million more than that demographic cohort represented in 2000. Their projected 2.4percent annual growth rate is more than double the annual increases for the total population aged 16 and older. The gradual aging of the population, coupled with advances in medical technologies that increase life expectancies, will create strong demand for health services. Comprised mostly of health prac titioner offices, nursing and personal care facilities, and hos pitals, this sector’s projected 2.5-percent average annual em ployment growth rate will yield 2.8 million new jobs. Reflecting the aging population, nursing and personal care facilities and health services (not elsewhere classified) are ex pected to be among the economy’s fastest and largest sources of future employment growth. Employment in nursing and personal care facilities is projected to increase 394,000 from its 2000 level of 1.8 million. Government budget constraints, the shift toward less expensive home healthcare and assisted liv ing, and a healthier elderly population will limit employment growth in nursing homes. Health services, not elsewhere clas sified, which includes home healthcare services, is expected to increase at a 4.6-percent annual rate to 1.9 million jobs in 2010, up from 1.2 million jobs in 2000. An aging population, many of whom will have functional disabilities, and the elderly’s desire to maintain an independent style of living will result in this industry having the distinction of being the economy’s third most rapidly growing industry in terms of employment. Employment in private hospitals, the slowest growing health services sector, is expected to increase at an average annual rate of 1.2 percent. However, due to this industry’s relatively large size, private hospitals are projected to add 510,000jobs by 2010 and reach a total employment level of 4.5 million. The aging population, new medical technologies, and developments in diagnostic testing and screening that allow more medical ailments to be detected and treated, will con tinue to increase demand for hospital services. However, shifts from inpatient hospitals to outpatient facilities coupled with progressive technological improvements and industry con solidations will continue to impede long-term growth. These sources that constrain employment growth in hospitals will result in aggressive growth in health practitioner offices. These facilities provide medical, surgical, and dental services outside the traditional hospital setting and are expected to create 1.3 million new jobs—almost half of the new jobs gener ated by the health services sector. As the shift from inpatient hospital care to outpatient facilities continues, facilitated by medical technology enhancements and managed care cost Monthly Labor Review November 2001 51 Industry Employment Table 6. Industries with the largest wage and salary employment growth and declines, 2000-10 Standard Industrial Classification Thousands of jobs Industry description 2000 2010 C hange A v e ra g e an nu al ra te of c h a n g e 20 00-1 0 2 0 00-1 0 Largest grow th 737 52-57,59 58 801-804 732,733,738 15,16,17 50,51 807-809 791,799 82 836 806 874 805 81 45 421,423 Computer and data processing services........... Retail trade exc. eating and drinking places...... Eating and drinking places................................. Offices of health practitioners............................ State and local government education.............. Miscellaneous business services....................... Construction....................................................... State and local general government, n.e.c......... Wholesale trade.................................................. Health services, n.e.c......................................... Amusement and recreation services, n.e.c........ Educational services.......................................... Residential care.................................................. Hospitals............................................................. Management and public relations....................... Nursing and personal care facilities.................. Legal services.................................................... Air transportation................................................ Trucking and courier services except a ir........... 2,094.9 15,193.5 8,113.7 3,098.8 9,471.8 2,300.9 6,697.5 6,592.2 7,023.8 1 ,2 10 .2 1,313.6 2,325.1 805.9 3,990.3 1,089.7 1,795.9 1,009.6 1,281.3 1,649.3 3,900.0 16,799.9 9,600.0 4,344.0 10,548.2 3,305.0 7,522.3 7,400.0 7,800.0 1,900.0 1,850.0 2,851.8 1,318.0 4,500.0 1,550.0 2,190.0 1,350.0 1,600.0 1,962.4 1,805.1 1,606.4 1,486.3 1,245.2 1,076.4 1,004.1 824.8 807.8 776.2 689.8 536.4 526.7 512.1 509.7 460.3 394.1 340.4 318.7 313.1 6.4 890.0 1,978.8 1,802.0 417.9 235.5 224.5 283.7 356.7 2,029.3 129.3 217.7 219.8 145.5 154.3 150.4 77.2 198.8 187.4 970.0 84.6 664.4 1,823.9 1,670.8 314.9 175.0 176.0 250.0 324.0 1,998.7 -225.6 -154.9 -131.2 -103.0 -60.5 -48.5 -33.7 -32.7 -30.6 -29.3 -27.7 -24.8 -24.4 -24.3 -23.4 -23.2 - 22.8 -22.4 - 22.0 -19.6 -2.9 - 0.8 - 0.8 - 2.8 -2.9 -2.4 -1.3 - 1.0 1.0 1.7 3.4 1.1 3.7 1.2 1.2 1.1 4.6 3.5 2.1 5.0 1.2 3.6 2.0 2.9 2 .2 1.8 Largest d e c lin e s . 88 01,02 231-238 40 331 221-224,226,228 491 60 131,132 281,286 203 202 282 362 12 261-263 208 291 N ote : Private households............................................. Agricultural production........................................ Federal general government............................... Apparel............................................................... Railroad transportation....................................... Blast furnaces and basic steel products........... Weaving, finishing, yarn, and thread mills......... Electric utilities................................................... Depository institutions........................................ Crude petroleum, natural gas, and gas liquids ... Industrial chemicals............................................ Preserved fruits and vegetables....................... Dairy products.................................................... Plastics materials and synthetics..................... Electrical industrial apparatus............................ Coal mining......................................................... Pulp, paper, and paperboard m ills..................... Beverages.......................................................... State and local government hospitals............... Petroleum refining............................................... 100.0 190.0 195.0 1 2 1 .1 130.0 127.0 54.0 176.0 165.0 948.0 65.0 -.2 -2.5 -1.4 - 1.2 - 1.8 -1.7 -1.7 -3.5 - 1.2 -1.3 -.2 - 2.6 n.e.c. = not elsewhere classified. constraints, employment in health practitioner offices is ex pected increase at a 3.4-percent annual rate, to 4.3 million jobs in 2010 from 3.1 million in 2000.5 Social Services. Industries within the social services sector, second only to the business services sector in terms of em ployment and output growth, are projected to maintain their relative importance. Social services employment is projected to increase 1.2 million from its 2000 level of 2.9 million. This 52 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 reflects an annual growth rate of 3.6 percent, more than double the projected employment growth for the overall economy. Output for this sector is expected to increase to $ 171.4 billion in 2010, up from $ 103.4 billion in 2000—an annual average rate of 5.2 percent. The residential care industry—encompassing homes for the elderly, emotionally disabled, and the handicapped, in ad dition to orphanages, halfway homes, and rehabilitation cen ters— is also projected to experience rapid growth. The aging population, the avoidance of costly nursing home or hospital care, and an effort to better integrate the physically and men tally disabled into society will result in the residential care industry expanding by 512,000jobs to 1.3 million by 2010. The subsequent 5.0-percent annual employment growth rate marks this industry as the economy’s second most rapidly growing industry. Output for this industry, projected to grow at 5.5 percent annually, is also expected to be among the economy’s fastest. With women’s labor force participation rate rising instep with those of childbearing age, the childcare services industry has also emerged as one of the fastest sources of employment growth. Highlighting the progressive social services sector, childcare service employment increased by 6.2 percent, to 712,000 jobs in 2000, up from 391,000 jobs in 1990. As the demographic dynamics effecting this industry slow over the projected 2000-10 period, employment is expected to increase by 298,000, an average annual rate of 3.6 percent. Even though the growth rate pales in comparison to this industry’s past, it is still more than double the rest of the economy. Government. Public sector employment is expected to add almost 1.8 million jobs over the projected years, reaching 22.4 million in 2010. This represents an annual growth rate of 0.8 percent, slightly slower than the 1,2-percent increase experi enced during the last decade. Federal Government employ ment is expected to decline from 2.8 million jobs in 2000 to 2.6 million in 2010. Due to budgetary constraints, the growing use of private contractors, and the transfer of some functions to State and local governments, the annual rate of decline is expected to slow from the 1.0 percent posted between 1990 and 2000 to 0.6 percent through 2010. The tempering of Government employment at the Federal level is juxtaposed against the size and growth of State and local governments. State and local government employment, adding more than 1.9 million jobs and reaching 19.8 million by 2010, is expected to increase at a 1 percent average annual rate, slightly less than the 1.6-percent rate for all of nonfarm wage and salary employment. Driving this growth is the ex pected 1.1 million jobs from State and local government edu cation, where more than half of all State and local government employment is found. Slower student enrollment rates at el ementary and secondary schools are projected to be offset by increasing demand for post-secondary education, continued career and skills training, and new distance learning opportu nities. In addition, proposed government initiatives at the early childhood level such as universal preschool, full-day kinder garten, and reduced class size will sustain this sector’s strong growth.6 By contrast, State and local government hospitals are expected to have large employment declines, shedding 22,000jobs by the year 2010. These hospitals, providing many safety-net services, are projected to contract due to https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis privatization and budget constraints that temper this often inefficient healthcare provider. G o o d s-p ro d u cin g sector Agriculture. Continued productivity growth, facilitated by more efficient farm machinery and equipment, is expected to be the main catalyst for increased agricultural production. Real output is projected to expand to $315 billion in 2010, up from $260 billion in 2000. However, total employment in agricultural production is projected to decline by 155,000, reaching 1.8 million in 2010. This trend is predominantly due to continued industry consolidation.7 At the same time, employment in ag ricultural services—such as veterinary services, crop, live stock, and soil preparation, as well as farm labor and manage ment services—is expected to increase at a steady 2.7-percent rate over the projected period, generating 477,000 new jobs. Increases in the pet and farm animal population, enhanced breeding and livestock management, and continued public health and disease control concerns are expected to raise em ployment in agricultural services. Mining. Historical productivity increases are expected to con tinue this industry sector’s dichotomy between output growth and employment decline. Wage and salary jobs, declining by 2.6 percent between 1990 and 2000, are projected to decrease by an additional 55,000. The mining industry as a whole is projected to experience the largest annual decline in employ ment for any major division, 1.1 percent. Conversely, output is expected to continue to increase to $229.9 billion in 2010, up from $212.1 billion in 2000—an annual average rate of approxi mately 0.8 percent. The coal mining industry exemplifies this divergence between output and employment growth. As more efficient and automated production methods require fewer workers, employment is projected to decline by 3.5 percent annually, while output is expected to grow to $32.5 billion in 2010, from $25.7 billion in 2000. Dampening the demand for this industry’s output is stringent environmental regulations that mandate the reduction in sulfur emissions from coal com bustion. However, coal is America’s cheapest and most abun dant fossil fuel, which will result in its continued reliance. Accounting for the majority of this sector’s employment, the oil and gas field services industry will be responsible for 188,000 jobs in 2010, roughly the same amount that existed in 2000. Output for this industry is expected to decline by an annual growth rate of 1.0 percent, decreasing production by $2.9 billion. The gas liquids industry—including the related crude petroleum, natural gas—is projected to have one of the largest employment declines in the economy, from 129,000jobs in 2000 to 100,000jobs in 2010. Fluctuations in global oil and gas prices, potential access to Federal lands, strict environ mental regulations that require cleaner burning fuels, foreign Monthly Labor Review November 2001 53 Industry Employment competition, as well as new technology and extraction tech niques, will significantly effect these industries.8 employment decline in nondurable manufacturing is expected to be significantly slower over the projected period. Construction. The construction industry, which is projected to add 825,000 jobs by 2010 at a 1.2-percent average growth rate, is the goods-producing sector’s largest and fastest source of employment growth. Reaching an employment level of 7.5 million in 2010, the construction industry is also one of the economy’s top-10 largest sources of employment growth. Real output is projected to increase by 2.6 percent a year to reach $ 1.2 trillion by 2010. Even though this is slower than the growth rate for the overall economy, it represents a marginal acceleration of the 2.2-percent growth rate posted during the previous 1990-2000 period. Nonresidential investment is projected to grow by 1.6 per cent over the 2000-10 period. The current absorption of the 1980s excess industrial plant capacity, in addition to the de layed need to replace or upgrade these existing facilities, will bode well for this segment’s future output growth. Therefore, industrial construction is expected to reverse its 2.2-percent rate of decline experienced over the 1990-2000 period, to at tain a 1.6 percent growth rate over the projected period. The commercial buildings industry, however, is expected to slow its 2.4-percent historical growth rate to 2.1 percent. Technol ogy enhancements will dampen demand for new commercial construction as nontraditional work and retail environments such as teleconferencing, home offices, telecommuting, and electronic shopping proliferate. Residential construction, closely tied to demographic fac tors, will continue to grow at a 2.4-percent pace throughout the 2000-10 period. As baby-boomers swell the 45-to-64 age cohort, the demand for upgraded homes, second homes, and assisted living housing will increase. In addition, as their chil dren, the echo boomers, augment the younger age groups, the demand for single-family housing and rental apartments should also increase. Durable manufacturing. Durable manufacturing is projected to gain 642,000jobs over the 2000-10 period and reach a level of 11.8 million workers. Attributed to strong productivity gains during the 1990-2000 period, durable goods manufacturing gained only 29,000jobs over this period, despite a 6.5-percent annual average growth rate for output. Real output for du rable manufacturing is projected to increase by $ 1.4 trillion to reach $4.1 trillion by 2010, an increase from its 2000 level. Driven by the demand for computers, electronic components, motor vehicles, and communication equipment, output in du rable goods manufacturing is expected to increase at a 4-per cent annual average rate, a faster rate than that of the aggre gate economy. The largest durable goods industry in 2000 was the motor vehicles and equipment industry. One million wage and salary workers, or 9 percent of total durable manufacturing employ ment, were attributed to this industry. Output in 2000 amounted to $433.1 billion, or 15.5 percent of total durable manufacturing output. However, this industry’s employment dominance is expected to wane as companies continue to implement productivity-enhancing technologies such as ro botics, computers, and factory automation. Employment in the motor vehicles and equipment industry is projected to increase annually at less than 1 percent to reach a relatively static 1.1 million jobs. Output, facilitated by healthy produc tivity gains, is projected to increase by $231.8 billion to reach $664.9 by 2010. The resulting 4.4-percent annual growth rate represents a slowdown from the 6.3-percent rate experienced over the last decade. Output growth will be limited due to the anticipated slowdown in the growth of the driving age popu lation, competition from foreign producers, improvements in vehicle quality that extend longevity, and safety and environ mental regulations that increase production costs. The constrained output growth of motor vehicles and equipment is contrasted against the continued strong world wide demand of the computer and office equipment industry. Projected to be the economy’s fastest and largest source of output growth, this industry is expected to be the dominant source of durable goods manufacturing output, surpassing the motor vehicles and equipment industry by 2010. Real output is projected to grow at an annual rate of 14.8 percent to $1.5 trillion in 2010, up from $385.7 billion in 2000. (See table 7.) However, new technology and automated manufacturing pro cesses are expected to lead employment in this industry to marginally contract by an annual average rate of 0.3 percent. Real output for the electronic components and accesso ries industry is projected to increase by $373.6 billion and reach $759.9 billion by 2010—the economy’s third largest source of projected output growth. The market for electronic Manufacturing. The overall picture for manufacturing is con tinued productivity-lead output growth, alongside a marginal employment increase. Steered by productivity gains and strong demand for durable goods by consumers, businesses, and exports, manufacturing output is expected to increase by $1.7 trillion to reach $6.3 trillion by 2010, up from its 2000 level. Rebounding from the 1990-2000 contraction o f607,000 manu facturing jobs, this sector is expected to exhibit modest growth of 0.3 percent. Manufacturing employment is projected to increase to 19.1 million jobs in 2010, up from 18.5 million in 2000. The projected employment uptick is due solely to the industries that manufacture durable goods. Their employ ment is expected to increase to an average annual increase of 0.6 percent over the 2000-10 projection period after virtually no change during the past 10 years. In addition, the rate of 54 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 Table 7. Industries with the largest output growth and declines, 2000-2010 S tandard Industrial Classification Industry description Billions of c h a in e d 1996 dollars 2000 A v e ra g e an nu al ra te of c h a n g e C ha nge 2010 20 00-2010 2 0 0 0 -2 0 1 0 Largest grow th 357 50,51 367 737 52-57,59 481-2,489 15,16,17 62 371 65 60 421,423 732,733,738 58 751 871 283 366 Computer and office equipment............................ Wholesale trade..................................................... Electronic components and accessories.............. Computer and data processing services.............. Owner-occupied dwellings..................................... Retail trade exc. eating and drinking places......... Telephone communications and services............. Construction.......................................................... Security and commodity brokers.......................... Motor vehicles and equipment.............................. Real estate............................................................ Depository institutions.......................................... Trucking and courier services except a ir.............. Miscellaneous business services......................... Eating and drinking places.................................... Royalties................................................................ Automotive rentals, without drivers...................... Engineering and architectural services................ Drugs..................................................................... Communications equipment................................... 385.7 920.4 386.3 278.2 631.2 926.1 340.8 910.1 291.7 433.1 653.0 446.2 237.3 197.7 298.1 96.2 63.2 132.6 98.6 107.3 1,531.1 1,409.6 759.9 600.8 943.4 1,236.6 637.9 1,182.1 540.4 664.9 822.4 596.3 358.6 312.7 393.3 191.2 150.8 210.7 170.5 174.8 1,145.4 489.3 373.6 322.6 312.2 310.6 297.1 272.1 248.7 231.8 169.4 150.0 121.3 115.0 95.2 95.0 87.7 78.1 72.0 67.5 14.8 4.4 7.0 56.9 27.2 45.0 15.3 189.9 94.0 73.0 39.8 4.0 27.7 13.3 9.5 301.6 43.0 17.0 -11.9 -11.9 -10.2 -6.4 -5.6 -3.9 -3.7 -3.0 -1.4 -1.4 -1.2 -2.3 -5.6 -.5 -.7 -.7 -.9 -6.4 -1.0 -1.0 -1.4 4.8 -.4 -.3 -.3 8.0 4.1 2.9 6.5 2.6 6.4 4.4 2.3 2.9 4.2 4.7 2.8 7.1 9.1 4.7 5.6 5.0 Largest declin es 203 386 281,286 331 355 311,315-317,319 138 88 271 373 793 387 279 313,314 762 277 N ote : Preserved fruits and vegetables........................... Photographic equipment and supplies.................. Federal general government................................... Industrial chemicals............................................... Blast furnaces and basic steel products.............. Special industry machinery................................... Luggage, handbags, and leather products, n.e.c. Oil and gas field services...................................... Private households................................................ Federal electric utilities.......................................... State and local government education................. Newspapers........................................................... Ship and boat building and repairing..................... Bowling centers..................................................... Watches, clocks, and p a rts.................................. Service industries for the printing trad e ............... Footwear, except rubber and plastic.................... Electrical repair shops........................................... Greeting cards....................................................... 200.1 100.4 78.6 43.7 7.7 30.7 14.7 10.9 302.9 43.8 17.6 3.2 0.7 5.2 2.5 14.7 4.2 2.6 0.1 2.2 14.4 4.1 -.8 -.6 -.6 -.6 -.1 0.0 -.2 -.4 -2.0 -14.7 -.9 -1.5 -.2 -.3 n.e.c. = not elsewhere classified. com ponents— and in particular, sem iconductors, this industry’s main product—will continue to be exemplary as they perform a vital function in nearly any new technology developed within the next decade. Its end products are used as components in the aggressively growing communications, computer, and semiconductor industries. The prominent role this industry plays in the economy is also highlighted by the fact that it is the second-largest employer in the durable goods manufacturer sector (behind motor vehicles and equipment). Despite the capital-intensive nature of this industry, employ ment is expected to continue its 1990-2000 growth rate of 1.6 percent, and add nearly 118,000 jobs over its 2000 level of 682,000. The communication equipment industry, producing a https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis wide variety of products from cellular phones, modems, and facsimile and answering machines to radio and cable televi sion equipment and communications satellites, is another elec tronic-related manufacturer that is projected to experience healthy growth. Real output of the communications equip ment industry is projected to expand annually by 5.0 percent to $ 174.8 billion in 2010, up from $ 107.3 billion in 2000. Nondurable manufacturing. During the 1990s, employment in the nondurable goods manufacturing sector declined by 637,000 jobs to 7.3 million. Over the next 10 years, however, nondurable manufacturing is expected to essentially maintain its 2000 level, declining annually by only 0.1 percent. Altema- Monthly Labor Review November 2001 55 Industry Employment tively, real output rose to $ 1.8 trillion in 2000 from $1.5 trillion in 1990, and is projected to reach $2.2 trillion in 2010. Nondu rable manufacturing industries that are primarily responsible for this sector’s output growth are drugs, plastic materials and synthetics, miscellaneous fabricated textile products, soaps, cleaners, toilet goods, and meat products. Employ ment in the drug industry is expected to increase by 75,000, totaling 390,000 jobs by 2010, while real output expands by $71.9 billion, to $ 170.5 billion. The resulting 5.6-percent an nual output growth rate, one of the economy’s fastest grow ing, is driven by a growing population demanding illness pre vention products; the development of new lifestyle drugs aimed at enhancing one’s self-confidence and physical ap pearance; and longer life expectancies of the elderly. Real output for the plastics materials and synthetics in dustry is projected to increase by $32.7 billion to reach $ 101.4 billion by 2010. In 2000, this industry was responsible for 154,000jobs. However, 2010 employment is expected to fall by 24,000, to 130,000. In addition to industry consolidations, in creased automation, and outsourcing of production, the growth in plastics demand from a wide variety of manufactur ing industries has contributed to both output growth and employment declines. Advanced polymers and plastics are being utilized for commodities production ranging from du rable automobile body panels to prosthetic limbs. However, the fabrication of these products requires precise, computercontrolled production methods, and in turn is expected to lead to significant productivity gains. Industries that are principally responsible for the weak em ployment growth in nondurable manufacturing are footwear— except rubber and plastic—(-7.2 percent annually), luggage, handbags, and leather products (-3.2 percent annually), and apparel (-2.8 percent annually). Due to the labor-intensive nature of the apparel industry, domestic employment will con tinue to be vulnerable to import competition from low-wage countries. Employment growth will be further constrained as mergers and acquisitions among retail department stores— the main buyers of apparel products—forces this industry to consolidate in order to remain competitive. Apparel, there fore, is expected to lose 103,000 jobs by 2010—the economy’s third largest source of declining employment. Imports are also projected to supply an increased share of footwear and lug gage, handbags, and leather products. Employment in these industries is expected to be the first and fifth most rapidly declining in the economy. Combined, these two industries are projected to continue their historical employment contraction and decline to 44,000 jobs in 2010, down from nearly 72,000 jobs in 2000. Likewise, real output for the footwear and lug gage, handbags, and leather products industries is expected to decline by 6.4 percent and 1.5 percent respectively, the second and sixth fastest in the economy. are character ized by unvarying population and labor force growth, along with slowing growth in total employment and productivityled output expansion. The service-producing sector contin ues to be the dominant employment generator in the economy, as has been the case historically. Business services and health services are projected to remain responsible for the majority of employment growth in the service-producing sector. □ I n d u s t r y o u t p u t a n d e m p l o y m e n t p r o je c t io n s N otes These projections were com pleted prior to the tragic events o f Sep tember 11. b ls will continue to review its projections and, as the long term econ om ic consequences o f September 11 becom e clearer, w ill incorporate these effects in subsequent releases o f the industry outlook. (See box on page 3.) 3 For farther historical analysis, see Julie Hatch and Angie Clinton, “Job growth in the 1990s: a retrospect,” M o n th ly L a b o r R e v ie w , December 2000, pp. 3 -1 8 . 1 This article discusses gross duplicated output in real terms. Gross duplicated output measures not only g d p , or all final demand purchases o f new goods and services, but also all new goods and services produced as intermediate goods for use in further production. Real output is measured as a 1996 based chain-weighted Fisher index. The real out puts o f the industry do not add to their higher level aggregates because o f chain w eighting. For more information on chain-w eighting, see Charles Steindel, “Chain-weighting: The N ew Approach to Measuring g d p ,” C u rren t Issu es in E conom ics a n d F inance, Federal Reserve Board o f N ew York, December 1995, vol. 1 no. 9. 5 For further information on the healthcare industry, see D avid Ellis, 2 For further discussion o f these factors, see Howard N. Fullerton, Jr., “Labor force projections to 2010; steady growth and changing com po sitio n ,” M o n th ly L a b o r R e v ie w , N ovem b er 1999, pp. 1 9 -3 2 ; and Norm an C. Saunders and B etty Su, “The U .S. econom y to 2 0 0 8 ,” M o n th ly L a b o r R e v ie w , Novem ber 1999, pp. 5-1 8 . 56 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 4 For further d iscu ssion on the effects o f electronic com m erce, see Daniel E. Hecker, “Employment impact o f electronic business,” M onthly L a b o r R e v ie w , May 2001, pp. 3 -1 6 . T ech n ology a n d the F u tu re o f H e a lth c a r e : P r e p a r in g f o r the N e x t 3 0 Years (Chicago, i l , Health Forum, Inc., 2000). 6 For additional information, see Debra E. Gerald and William J. Hussar, “Projections o f Education S tatistics to 2 0 1 0 .” U .S . D epartm ent o f Education, National Center for Education Statistics (Washington, d c , 2000 ). 7 For more information on consolidation trends effecting the agricul tural industry, see James MacDonald, “Concentration and Competition in the U.S. Food and Agricultural Industries,” A gricu ltu ra l O utlook, U.S. Department o f Agriculture, Econom ic Research Service (Washington, dc , May 1999), pp. 2 6 -2 9 . 8 For further energy related information, see “Annual Energy Outlook 2001. ” U .S. Department o f Energy, Energy Information Adm inistra tion (Washington, dc , 2000). Occupational Employment Em ploym ent outlook: 2000-10 Occupational employment projections to 2010 Occupations requiring a postsecondary vocational award or an academic degree, which accounted fo r 29 percent o f all jobs in 2000, will account fo r 42 percent o f total jo b growth from 2000 to 2010 Daniel E. Hecker Daniel E. Hecker is an economist In the Office of O ccupa tional Statistics and Employment Projec tions, Bureau of Labor Statistics. E-mail: Hecker_D@bls.gov https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis otal employment is projected to increase by 22.2 million jobs over the 2000-10 period, rising to 167.8 million, according to the latest projections of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This increase represents about a mil lion more jobs than were added over the previ ous 10-year period (1990-2000). The projected 15.2-percent increase, however, is less than the 17.1-percent increase o f the previous 10-year period.1 Self employed is projected to grow from 11.5 to 11.7 million, or 1.7 percent. The economy will continue generating jobs for workers at all levels of education and train ing, although growth rates are projected to be faster, on average, for occupations generally re quiring a postsecondary award (a vocational cer tificate or other award or an associate or higher degree), than for occupations requiring less education or training. Most new jobs, however, will arise in occupations that require only workrelated training (on-the-job training or work experience in a related occupation), even though these occupations are projected to grow more slowly, on average. This reflects the fact that these occupations accounted for about 7 out of 10 jobs in 2000. This article discusses a number of aspects of the 2000-2010 projections along with related information: T • changes in the structure of employment at the major occupational group level; • the detailed occupations that are projected to grow fastest as well as those with the largest numerical increases and decreases, along with their current educational or training requirements and earnings; • the total job openings projected to occur due to growth in the economy and the net replacement needs resulting from workers who leave the labor force or transfer to other occupations; and • the distribution of employment in 2000 and projected 2000-10 job openings by level of education or training. In this article, projected employment is ana lyzed from two perspectives—percent change and numerical change—because one can be large and the other small, depending on the size of employment in the base year. The following example, using data for two occupations gen erally requiring the same level o f education— a bachelor’s degree—serves to illustrate the im portance of viewing job outlook from both per spectives. Employment of physician assistants numbered only 58,000 in 2000, and despite rapid projected growth over the 2000-10 period (53.5 percent), this occupation will add only 31,000 Monthly Labor Review November 2001 57 Occupational Employment jobs. In contrast, employment of elementary school teach ers, except special education, was 1,532,000 in 2000; while employment is expected to grow by only 13 percent, the num ber of new jobs over the 2000-10 period will total 202,000— nearly 7 times as many as for physician assistants. Major occupational groups Among the major occupational groups, employment in the two largest in 2000—professional and related occupations and service occupations—will increase the fastest and add the most jobs from 2000 to 2010. (See table 1.) These ma jor groups, which are on opposite ends of the educational attainment and earnings spectrum, are expected to provide more than half of the total job growth from 2000 to 2010. Employment in transportation and material moving occupa tions is projected to grow as fast as overall employment; man agement, business, and financial occupations; construction and extraction occupations; sales and related occupations; and installation, maintenance, and repair occupations will grow somewhat more slowly. The three slowest growing groups, all under 10 percent, are office and administrative support occupations; production occupations; and farming, fishing, and forestry occupations. As a result of the different growth rates among the major occupational groups, the occupational distribution of total employment will change somewhat by the year 2010, but the relative ranking of the groups by employment size is not ex pected to change. Professional and related occupations will continue to rank first, while farming, fishing, and forestry occupations will continue to rank last. Only two groups will increase their relative share of employment—professional and related occupations and service occupations. (See table 1.) The growth of occupational groups (and occupations) is determined, in large part, by growth in the industries in which they are concentrated. For example, professional occupations are projected to grow the fastest, in large part because they are concentrated in some fast-growing services industries, while production occupations are projected to grow more slowly than overall employment, largely because nearly 3 out o f 4 are in the slow growing manufacturing sector.2 The number of management, business, and financial work ers is projected to grow by 2.1 million from 2000 to 2010. Nearly a quarter of all job growth will be in business ser vices industries, where these occupations should grow the fastest. About 354,000 new jobs are projected for rapidly growing engineering and management services and 238,000 for finance, insurance, and real estate. Slow growth is pro jected for government, except State and local education and hospitals, and for manufacturing, with relatively few new jobs in each— 60,000 and 104,000, respectively.3 Overall pro 58 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 jected growth among management, business, and financial workers also is affected by the decline o f farmers and ranch ers by 328,000. (See table 2.) Almost all farmers and ranchers are self-employed, causing self-employment in this major occupational group to decline. However, because of growing self-employment in other management, business, and financial occupations, the overall decline in self-em ployed is expected to be only 97,000. Excluding farmers and ranchers, management, business, and financial occupations are projected to increase 17.2 percent; the self-employed, excluding farmers and ranchers, is projected to increase 14.6 percent. Employment in professional and related occupations is projected to grow faster and add more workers (7 million) than any other major group. In terms of employment share, professional and related occupations are expected to experi ence the largest increase, rising from 18.4 percent o f total employment in 2000 to 20.1 percent in 2010. Three industry groups—business services; education, public and private; and health services—each will account for about a fifth of all growth. Another fifth is projected for the rest of services, including engineering and management, social, and legal ser vices. Relatively slow growth is projected for government, except State and local education and hospitals, and for manu facturing, with 235,000 and 176,000 new jobs, respectively. Nearly three-quarters of the job growth for professional and related is projected for three subgroups—computer and math ematical occupations; health care practitioners and technical occupations; and education, training, and library occupations. A 10.3-percent increase is projected for self-employed pro fessional and related occupations. Most growth among selfemployed is projected for two subgroups— arts, design, en tertainment, sports, and media occupations; and computer and mathematical occupations. Computer and mathematical occupations are projected to add the most jobs, 2 million, and grow the fastest among the eight professional and related occupations subgroups. (See table 2.) The demand for computer-related occupations will con tinue to increase as a result of the rapid advances in com puter technology and the continuing demand for new com puter applications, including those for the Internet and intranets. Three out of five new jobs will be in the rapidly growing business services industries—primarily in computer and data processing services, where employment o f com puter and mathematical occupations is projected to more than double. In addition, in almost all industries, employ ment of these workers is projected to grow significantly faster than the average for all occupations. Self-employed workers are expected to increase 51.2 percent. Health care practitioners and technical occupations are projected to add 1.6 million jobs, as the demand for health Occupational classification and title changes These projections reflect the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification system. The titles and content of major occupational groups and many detailed occupations in this article are substantially different than those used in the 1998-2008 projections presented in the November 1999 issue of the Review. Some major groups have been renamed, combined, or reorganized. For example, ex ecutive, administrative, and managerial occupations has been renamed management, business, and financial oc cupations. Technicians have become part of professional and related occupations, while two major groups—pre cision production, craft, and repair; and operators, fab ricators, and laborers—have been reorganized into four groups— construction and extraction; installation, main tenance, and repair; production; and transportation and material moving occupations. Some individual occupations also have been renamed or classified within different major groups. For example, farmers and farm managers, formerly in agriculture, for estry, fishing, and related occupations, now are classified as agricultural managers within management, business, and financial occupations. Aircraft pilots and flight en gineers, and air traffic controllers, both formerly in technicians and related support occupations, are classified under transportation and material moving occupations. Teacher assistants, formerly in administrative support, including clerical occupations, now fall under educa tion, training, and library occupations. Landscape, care services continues to grow rapidly. Nearly 3 out of 4 new jobs for workers in these occupations should be in the health services industry. Growth will be slower in govern ment, except State and local education and hospitals. Regis tered nurses, by far the largest occupation in this group, should account for more than a third of all new jobs. The number of self-employed workers in this group is projected to decline somewhat. Self-employed physicians, dentists, and optometrists are expected to decline, mainly due to the shift of employ ment into incorporated group practices, while self-employed chiropractors, registered nurses, and therapists are projected to grow. Education, training, and library occupations are projected to add 1.6 million jobs. This group is projected to grow, as the school-age population increases, a greater propor tion o f students are provided with special education, and classes become smaller. Four out of five new jobs are pro jected for public and private educational services. The fast https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis groundskeeping, nursery, greenhouse, and lawn service occupations, formerly within agriculture, forestry, fishing, and related occupations, now are classified as landscaping and groundskeeping workers within services occupa tions, under building and grounds cleaning and mainte nance occupations. Many occupations were added to the 2000 soc. Table 2 includes nearly 700 detailed occupations, compared with more than 500 in the previous projections. Some occu pations—such as network and computer systems admin istrators, and meeting and convention planners, are new. Other occupations have been split into more detailed components. For example, engineering, natural science, and computer and information systems managers, in the 1998-2008 projections, comprise three separate man agement occupations in the 2000-10 projections. Simi larly, special education teachers have been split into three components, according to the level of school in which they teach— secondary school; middle school; and pre school, kindergarten, and elementary school. Because of these changes, occupations and occupa tional groups are not comparable to those in earlier analy ses. The 1998-2008 projections were accompanied by data for the previous 10-year period, 1988-98, showing employment changes for comparable major occupational groups. For these 2000-10 projections, it is not possible to calculate comparable occupational employment changes for the 1990-2000 period. est growth (35.6 percent) and 1 new job in 10 is projected for social services industries. Community and social services occupations are projected to add 529,000jobs and have the second fastest growth among professional and related occupations. Continued rapid growth should result, as the elderly population increases rapidly and as greater efforts are made to provide services for the dis abled, the sick, and individuals and families in crisis. More than 2 out of 5 new jobs should be in the social services industry. About 93,000 new jobs will be in health services. Relatively slow growth is projected for government, except State and local education and hospitals; and in religious or ganizations, with 85,000 and 58,000 new jobs, respectively. Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations are projected to add 493,000 jobs. About one-fifth of new jobs are projected for very rapidly growing business services, which includes advertising and computer and data process ing services. One job in eight is projected for amusement Monthly Labor Review November 2001 59 Occupational Employment T a b le 1. Employment by major occupational group, 2000 and projected 2010 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] E m p lo y m e n t O c c u p a tio n a l g r o u p Num ber Change P e rc e n t d is trib u tio n 2000 2010 2000 Total, all occupations............................................................. 145,594 167,754 100.0 Management, business, and financial occupations........................ Professional and related occupations........................................... Service occupations.................................................................... Sales and related occupations..................................................... Office and administrative support occupations.............................. Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations.................................... Construction and extraction occupations...................................... Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations.......................... Production occupations.............................................................. Transportation and material moving occupations........................... 15,519 26,758 26,075 15,513 23,882 1,429 7,451 5,820 13,060 10,088 17,635 33,709 31,163 17,365 26,053 1,480 8,439 6,482 13,811 11,618 10.7 18.4 17.9 10.7 16.4 1.0 5.1 4.0 9.0 6.9 Num ber P e rc e n t 100.0 22,160 15.2 10.5 2,115 6,952 5,088 1,852 2,171 51 989 662 750 1,530 13.6 26.0 19.5 11.9 9.1 3.6 13.3 11.4 5.7 15.2 2010 20.1 18.6 10.4 15.5 .9 5.0 3.9 8.2 6.9 NOTE: Detail may not equal total or 100 percent due to rounding. and recreation services. Nearly a quarter of all growth should be for self-employed workers (a 16.5-percent increase). Self-em ployed writers and authors, photographers, graphic designers, and musicians and singers should experience the largest increases. Legal occupations are projected to add 216,000 jobs. Most growth is projected for the legal services industry, where these occupations should increase by 38.4 percent. Nearly a quar ter of these workers were employed in government, except State and local education and hospitals in 2000, in which growth should be much slower, creating only 31,000 new jobs. Paralegals and legal assistants are projected to grow the fastest, while lawyers should add the most jobs, 123,000. The number of self-employed workers in this group is pro jected to decline, all among lawyers, reflecting the difficulty in establishing new legal practices. Architecture and engineering jobs are projected to increase by 325,000, or 12.5 percent, the slowest growth among the eight professional and related subgroups. Nearly 3 out of 5 new jobs are projected for the rapidly growing engineering and management services industry. In the business services industry, more than 1 new job in 4 is projected, and even faster growth. In manufacturing industries—which employed 37 percent of these workers in 2000—very slow growth is expected, with only 35,000 new jobs. A small decline is pro jected in government, except State and local education and hospitals. Engineers, the largest occupational subgroup, is expected to grow 9.4 percent. Life, physical, and social scientists are projected to add 223,000 jobs. Two out of five new jobs are projected for the engineering and management services industry, with 42.2 percent growth. This industry includes research and testing Monthly Labor Review Digitized for 60 FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 services. Few new jobs and slow growth are projected in gov ernment and manufacturing, where about 2 out of 5 of these workers were employed in 2000. Self-employed psycholo gists are projected to add 10,000 jobs. Employment in service occupations is projected to in crease by 5.1 million, the second largest numerical gain and second highest rate of growth among the major occupational groups. More than half of the projected growth through 2010 is in the rapidly growing services industry, primarily in health, business, and social services. Nearly 30 percent of new jobs will arise in retail trade, primarily in eating and drinking places. The number of self- employed service workers is pro jected to increase slowly, with most growth projected for per sonal care and service occupations. O f the subgroups making up service occupations, food preparation and serving related occupations was the largest in 2000, providing more than 10 million jobs. It also is pro jected to add the most jobs, about 1.6 million. Nearly 9 of 10 new jobs are projected for retail trade, including eating and drinking places. Employment should grow more slowly in health services, and decline slightly in education. Healthcare support occupations are projected to add 1.1 million jobs, growing the fastest of the services subgroups. Close to 7 out of 10 new jobs are projected for the health services industry. Approximately 149,00 new jobs are pro jected for the social services industry, where growth should be fastest, at 47.8 percent. Protective service occupations are expected to grow rapidly, adding 809,000 jobs. Half of all growth and a 55-percent in crease is projected for business services, primarily in miscella neous business services, which includes detective and guard services. Two out of 5 new jobs should be in government, but here growth should be much slower. Personal care and service occupations are projected to add 856,000 jobs. One-third of the new jobs for workers in these jobs, and the fastest growth (55.9 percent) are projected in so cial services. Fourteen percent of new jobs, and very fast growth are projected for health services. Overall growth is retarded by a 25-percent decline in the private household sector, where 7 percent of these workers were employed in 2000 and by slow growth among the self-employed, who made up a quarter of all workers in this group in 2000. Of the 75,000 projected new jobs among the self-employed, most should be for hairdressers, hairstylists, and cosmetologists and child care workers. Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupa tions are projected to add 779,000 jobs with the slowest growth of the services occupation subgroups. Almost a quar ter o f new jobs and 42.5-percent growth is projected for the agriculture, forestry, and fishing sendees industry, which in cludes landscape and horticultural services. Another quarter of new jobs is projected for business services (including build ing cleaning and maintenance services and personnel supply services). Slow growth and relatively few new jobs are pro jected for education and manufacturing, and little or no growth is projected for the self-employed, who made up 8 percent of this group in 2000. A 25-percent decline is projected in the private household sector, where 10 percent of these workers were employed in 2000. Self-employed first-line supervisors/ managers of landscaping, lawn service, and groundskeeping workers are projected to increase 32.3 percent, while selfemployed maids and housekeeping cleaners and janitors and cleaners should decline. Employment in sales and related occupations is projected to increase by 1.9 million workers from 2000 to 2010. The below-average job growth for sales workers is attributable, in part, to the increased use of automated sales systems, in cluding those related to electronic business, which decrease the overall demand for labor.4 More than half of new sales jobs are projected for the retail trade industry. One o f six new jobs is projected for business services, where employ ment is projected to grow rapidly (42.1 percent). Much slower growth, but 147,000 new jobs for sales workers, is expected in wholesale trade. The number of self-employed sales and related workers, who made up 13 percent of the group in 2000, is projected to drop slightly. Self-employed securities, commodities, and services sales agents; retail estate sales agents; and insurance sales agents are projected to increase, while retail salespersons; door-to-door sales workers, news and street vendors, and related workers; and telemarketers are projected to decline. Employment in office and administrative support occu pations is projected to increase by 2.2 million, but grow https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis slowly. Business services should have close to half of all job growth, with a 39.2-percent increase. This sector includes personnel supply services, which provides temporary employ ees to other industries on a contract or fee basis, and com puter and data processing services. Another 40 percent of new jobs are projected for the rest of the services industries, primarily health, engineering and management, and legal ser vices. In almost all industries, however, employment of these workers is projected to grow more slowly than overall em ployment, due to continued office automation, including that related to electronic business; and as organizations make greater use of temporary workers employed by the personnel supply industry, raising employment in that sector.5 In gov ernment, except State and local education and hospitals; manufacturing; and education, which together employed onequarter of office and administrative support workers in 2000, employment is projected to decline. Many occupations with the largest projected job declines, including tellers and word processors and typists, are in this group. (See table 4.) How ever, a number of occupations that involve a great deal of contact with people, such as hotel, motel, and resort desk clerks and customer service representatives, are less affected by changing technology, and are projected to grow rapidly. Farming, fishing, andforestry occupations are projected to grow by 51,000 jobs. The self-employed are projected to decline 9.1 percent. Self-employed first-line supervisors/managers/contractors of farming, fishing, and forestry workers are projected to increase, but fishers and related fishing work ers and farm workers are projected to decline. The construction and extraction occupations major group is projected to add 989,000 jobs, a 13.3-percent increase. More than 3 out of 5 new jobs are projected for the construc tion industry. The fastest growth (58.4 percent) is projected for business services, which should account for almost 10 percent of new jobs. Most of these jobs are in personnel supply ser vices. A decline of 18,000 is projected for the mining indus try—mostly for extraction workers. Self-employed construc tion and extraction workers are projected to increase 9.4 per cent. Most new jobs among the self-employed are for firstline supervisors/managers of construction trades and extrac tion workers and for painters, construction and maintenance. Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations are projected to add 662,000 jobs. A 25.3-percent growth rate, or approximately 1 new job in 5, is projected for the automotive repair, services, and parking industry. Most growth, however, is projected to occur in a wide range of other industries. Selfemployed workers in this group are projected to decline slightly. Self-employed heating, air conditioning, and refrig eration mechanics and installers are projected to increase, but self-employed automotive body repairers and industrial machinery mechanics are projected to decline. Monthly Labor Review November 2001 61 Occupational Employment Production occupations are expected to add about 750,000 jobs, a small increase. In 2000, nearly 3 out of 4 production workers were employed in manufacturing, but only about a quarter of new jobs and very slow growth are projected for this industry. More than half of new jobs are projected for the business services industry (most in personnel supply ser vices), with growth at 43.5 percent expected. Self-employed production occupations are projected to decline 13.3 percent. Tailors, dressmakers, and sewers; welders, cutters, solderers, and brazers; and cabinetmakers and bench carpenters should experience the largest declines. Transportation and material moving occupations are pro jected to add 1.5 million jobs. More than 1 out of 3 new jobs should be in transportation and public utilities, and nearly 3 out of 10 new jobs, and growth of 50.1 percent, should occur in business services (primarily personnel supply services). Slower growth is projected for wholesale trade and retail trade, 166.000 and 95,000 jobs, respectively. Little change in em ployment is projected for these workers in manufacturing, where 1 out of 6 were employed in 2000. Water transporta tion occupations are projected to grow slowly, while railroad occupations will continue their long-term decline. Nearly 2 out of 5 new jobs should be for truck drivers and driver/sales workers. A small increase in self-employed jobs is projected; mostly for taxi drivers and chauffeurs and driver/salesworkers. Detailed occupations This section focuses in occupations that are the fastest grow ing, have the largest numeric increases, and have the largest numeric declines. Data on numeric and percent growth for nearly 700 detailed occupations are presented in table 2. The growth rates for detailed occupations range from an increase o f 100 percent for computer software engineers, applications, to a decline of 61 percent for railroad brake, signal, and switch operators. Numeric growth ranges from 673.000 additional jobs for combined food preparation and service occupations, including fast food, to a decline of 328.000 farmers and ranchers. The 30 occupations with the largest numeric increases account for nearly half of the 22.2 million total increase over the 2000-10 period. (See table 4.) The 30 occupations that are projected as the fastest grow ing have growth rates of 36 percent or greater, more than twice the average for all occupations or faster. (See table 3.) Eight occupations (five computer-related and three healthrelated) are included in both groups—computer software engineers, application; computer software engineers, sys tems software; computer support specialists; network and computer systems administrators; computer systems ana lysts; personal and home care aides; medical assistants; and home health aides. (See table 4.) 62 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 Fastest growing occupations. Of the 30 fastest growing oc cupations, 17 are health-related and 10 are computer-related occupations. (See table 3.) The others are special education teachers, preschool, kindergarten, and elementary school; fitness trainers and aerobics instructors; and social and hu man services assistants. The increasing demand for computer-related occupations reflects the rapid advances in computer technology and the continuing development of new computer applications, in cluding the Internet and intranets. Overall, computer special ists, a component of computer and mathematical occupations, is projected to grow 68.6 percent, and computer and infor mation systems managers, classified within management, business, and financial occupations, is projected to grow 47.9 percent. (See table 2.) Five computer-related occupations also are among the occupations with the largest projected numeri cal job growth. The two healthcare groups discussed in the previous sec tion—healthcare practitioners and technical occupations, and healthcare support occupations—have a combined growth rate of 27.9 percent. Rapid growth among health-related oc cupations reflects an aging population that requires more health care, a wealthier population that can afford better health care, and advances in medical technology that permit an increasing number of health problems to be treated more ag gressively. However, job growth among health-related occu pations will be limited by efforts to stem the rapid growth of spending on health care, both by private medical insurers and by government—to restrict the growth of medicare and medicaid reimbursements. Even so, continued efforts to con trol health care costs should stimulate some health-related occupations on this list (mostly technicians, aides and assis tants) to grow even more rapidly than overall health em ployment. They will assume some duties formerly done by more highly paid healthcare workers, such as dentists, phar macists, physicians, and therapists. These occupations include physician assistants, physical therapist assistants and aides, occupational therapist assistants and aides, dental assistants, dental hygienists, and pharmacy technicians. Some healthcare occupations also will grow more rapidly than overall healthcare employment, because they are more likely to pro vide services to the rapidly growing older population. These include some listed above, such as physical and occupational therapist assistants and aides and pharmacy technicians, as well as audiologists and speech-language pathologists. Em ployment of medical assistants should grow rapidly, because they are concentrated in rapidly growing outpatient care fa cilities. The number of medical records and health information technicians employed also is expected to grow rapidly due to the need to maintain records for an increasing number of medical tests, treatments, and procedures that will undergo increasing scrutiny by third-party payers, courts, and con sumers. Employment of home health aides and of personal and home care aides (included in this discussion of healthrelated occupations but classified as a personal service occupation in table 2) also should be stimulated, as the older population grows and as efforts to contain healthcare costs continue. The older population is more likely to need inhome health care, as well as personal care and housekeeping services that these workers provide. In addition, patients of all ages are being discharged from hospitals and nursing facilities as early as possible. These aides also provide care to this rapidly growing group of patients. Employ ment o f mental health and substance abuse social workers (classified as a community and social services occupation in table 2) is projected to grow rapidly because of greater efforts to treat drug abusers and people with mental health problems. Employment o f veterinary technologists and technicians and veterinary assistants and laboratory ani mal caretakers, also classified as healthcare occupations, are projected to grow rapidly as pet owners spend more on animal care services, including day and overnight board ing, surgery, and intensive care. Three other occupations also should be among the fastest growing. Fitness trainers and aerobics instructors are pro jected to grow rapidly, due to rising interest in personal train ing and other fitness activities. Special education teachers, preschool, kindergarten, and elementary school are projected to grow rapidly due to the growing number of students re quiring special education and due to legislation emphasizing training and employment for individuals with disabilities. Social and human service assistants also are projected to grow rapidly as employers attempt to control costs. Social service agencies are restructuring services and hiring more lowerpaid social and human service assistants instead of social workers, making these assistants the fastest growing com munity and social services occupation. Occupations with the largest job growth. Very large occu pations with average or even below-average growth rates provide many job openings, as do very fast growing ones with smaller base-year employment. These 30 occupations are from a much broader range of occupational groups than are the 30 fastest growing. Five are computer-related and five are health-related. Four each are in education, training, and library and in transportation and material moving major occupation groups, three fall under the category of office and administrative support, and two each in sales and related, and in management, business, and financial occupations. Five are service occupations other than those related to health, including two in building and grounds cleaning and mainte https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis nance occupations and two in food service. Twenty on the list had employment of at least 1 million in 2000. Of the 10 that had employment of less than a million, all except accountants and landscaping and groundskeeping workers have projected growth at least three times as fast as the 15.2-percent average for all occupations. Five are com puter-related occupations; the largest is computer support spe cialists, with 2000 employment of 505,000. (Computer pro grammers, the largest computer occupation in 2000, but with only 16 percent growth, is not on the list.) Six occupations on the list, all with employment o f 1.5 million or more, are projected to grow more slowly than 15.2 percent. Registered nurses and nursing aides, orderlies, and atten dants, by far the two largest health-related occupations in 2000, also are projected to have more numerical growth than any other health-related occupations. Home health aides, medical assistants, and personal and home care aides, all among the 30 fastest growing, are also on this list. The four largest education, training, and library occupations in 2000— postsecondary teachers; teacher assistants; elementary school teachers, except special education; and secondary school teachers, except special and vocational education—are pro jected to have large numbers of job openings. Elementary teachers, except special education is the only one with below average employment growth. O f the four transportation and material moving occupa tions, laborers and freight, stock, and material movers, hand is the only one with below average employment growth. Packers and packagers; truck drivers, heavy and tractor trailer; and truck drivers, light and delivery services are projected to grow approximately 20 percent. Both sales and related occu pations—retail salespersons and cashiers, except gaming— are projected to have below average growth, but in 2000, each one had employment of more than 3 million. The two food service occupations—combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food and waiters and wait resses—have large base-year employment and faster than average growth rates. General and operations managers should grow at about the same rate as the total for all occupations, while security guards is projected to grow 35.2 percent, making it the fastest growing occupation of the 30 on this list that is not computer or health related. Among building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations, janitors and cleaners is projected to have more openings than landscaping and groundskeeping workers, although growth of janitors is much slower than landscaping and groundskeeping workers, be cause employment in 2000 was much larger. Of the three office and administrative support occupations on the list, customer service representatives and receptionists and in formation clerks are projected to grow rapidly, while office Text con tin u es on p a g e 78. Monthly Labor Review November 2001 63 Occupational Employment | Employment by occupation, 2000 and projected 2010 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] C hange E m plo ym ent Percent d istrib utio n N um ber O ccupatio n N um ber P ercent To tal jo b op en in g s d u e to grow th an d net rep lacem ents, 2000-101 2000 2010 2000 2010 Total, all occupations.......................................................................... 145,594 167,754 100.0 100.0 22,160 15.2 57,932 Management, business, and financial occupations............................ 15,519 17,635 10.7 10.5 2,115 13.6 5,109 10,564 362 11,834 436 7.3 .2 7.1 .3 1,270 74 12.0 20.4 3,330 133 Management occupations..................................................................... Administrative services managers..................................................... Advertising, marketing, promotions, public relations, and sales m anagers..................................................................................... Advertising and promotions managers........................................... Marketing and sales managers........................................................ Marketing m anagers....................................................................... Sales managers............................................................................... Public relations managers ............................................................... Agricultural managers......................................................................... Farm, ranch, and other agricultural managers............................... Farmers and ranchers ...................................................................... Chief executives .................................................................................. Computer and information systems m anagers................................ Construction managers....................................................................... Education administrators .................................................................... Engineering managers........................................................................ Financial managers ............................................................................. Food service managers ...................................................................... Funeral directors.................................................................................. Gaming m anagers............................................................................... General and operations managers................................................... Human resources managers ............................................................. Industrial production managers ......................................................... Legislators ............................................................................................ Lodging m anagers............................................................................... Medical and health services managers ............................................ Natural sciences managers................................................................ Postmasters and mail superintendents............................................. Property, real estate, and community association m anagers........ Purchasing managers......................................................................... Social and community service managers ........................................ Transportation, storage, and distribution m anagers....................... All other managers............................................................................... Business and financial operations occupations................................. Business operations specialists......................................................... Agents and business managers of artists, performers, and athletes......................................................................................... Buyers and purchasing agents........................................................ Purchasing agents and buyers, farm products........................... Purchasing agents, except wholesale, retail, and farm products Wholesale and retail buyers, except farm products.................... Claims adjusters, appraisers, examiners, and investigators........ Claims adjusters, examiners, and investigators......................... Insurance appraisers, auto da m ag e ............................................. Compliance officers, except agriculture, construction, health and safety, and transportation.......................................................... Cost estimators.................................................................................. Emergency management specialists.............................................. Human resources, training, and labor relations specialists ......... Compensation, benefits, and job analysis specialists................ Employment, recruitment, and placement specialists................ Training and development specialists........................................... Management analysts....................................................................... Meeting and convention planners.................................................... All other business operations specialists....................................... Financial specialists............................................................................. Accountants and auditors................................................................. Appraisers and assessors of real estate........................................ Budget analysts................................................................................. Credit analysts................................................................................... Financial analysts.............................................................................. Financial ©xaminers.......................................................................... Insurance underwriters..................................................................... Loan counselors and officers........................................................... Loan counselors .............................................................................. 64 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 707 100 533 190 343 74 1,462 169 1,294 547 313 308 453 282 658 465 32 4 2,398 219 255 54 68 250 42 25 270 132 128 149 981 4,956 2,841 936 135 701 246 455 101 1,144 179 965 641 463 358 513 305 780 535 32 5 2,761 246 271 61 75 330 45 26 331 125 160 179 1,074 5,801 3,320 .5 .1 .4 .1 .2 .1 1.0 .1 .9 .4 .2 .2 .3 .2 .5 .3 .0 .0 1.6 .2 .2 .0 .0 .2 .0 .0 .2 .1 .1 .1 .7 3.4 2.0 .6 .1 .4 .1 .3 .1 .7 .1 .6 .4 .3 .2 .3 .2 .5 .3 .0 .0 1.6 .1 .2 .0 .0 .2 .0 .0 .2 .1 .1 .1 .6 3.5 2.0 229 34 168 55 112 27 -318 10 -328 94 150 50 61 23 122 70 1 1 363 28 16 7 6 81 3 1 61 -7 32 30 93 845 479 32.4 34.3 31.5 29.1 32.8 36.3 -21.7 6.0 -25.4 17.2 47.9 16.3 13.4 8.0 18.5 15.0 3.0 30.0 15.2 12.7 6.2 12.7 9.3 32.3 7.6 2.5 22.7 -5.5 24.8 20.2 9.5 17.1 16.8 331 49 244 83 162 38 103 30 74 266 203 100 178 69 223 125 6 2 767 66 57 24 14 123 11 5 105 41 56 55 267 1,779 1,053 17 404 20 237 148 207 194 13 22 424 23 266 135 238 223 15 .0 .3 .0 .2 .1 .1 .1 .0 .0 .3 .0 .2 .1 .1 .1 .0 5 20 3 29 -13 31 29 2 27.9 4.8 16.8 12.3 -8.7 15.0 15.1 14.3 8 128 7 76 45 54 51 3 140 211 10 490 87 199 204 501 34 827 2,115 976 57 70 60 145 25 107 265 29 152 246 12 578 100 234 244 646 42 960 2,481 1,157 67 80 70 182 27 109 281 33 .1 .1 .0 .3 .1 .1 .1 .3 .0 .6 1.5 .7 .0 .0 .0 .1 .0 .1 .2 .0 .1 .1 .0 .3 .1 .1 .1 .4 .0 .6 1.5 .7 .0 .0 .0 .1 .0 .1 .2 .0 12 35 2 88 14 35 40 145 8 133 367 181 10 10 10 37 3 2 16 5 8.9 16.5 18.1 18.0 15.7 17.6 19.4 28.9 23.3 16.1 17.3 18.5 18.0 14.6 16.0 25.5 10.2 2.0 6.1 16.0 48 81 5 183 30 73 79 189 14 343 726 326 26 24 22 57 7 18 69 10 Continued—Employment by occupation, 2000 and projected 2010 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] Em ploym ent N um ber O ccupation C hange Percent distribution N um ber 2000 Loan officers......................................................................... Personal financial advisors.............................................................. Tax examiners, collectors, and revenue agents........................... Tax preparers ....................................................................... All other financial specialists............................................................ Professional and related occupations................................................ Computer and mathematical occupations ......................................... Computer specialists .................................................................. Computer programmers................................................................ Computer scientists and systems analysts.................................... Computer and information scientists, research .......................... Computer systems analysts..................................................... Computer software engineers............................................. Computer software engineers, applications................................ Computer software engineers, systems software....................... Computer support specialists ......................................................... Database administrators................................................ Network and computer systems administrators............................ Network systems and data communications analysts................. All other computer specialists.................................... Mathematical science occupations...................................... Mathematical scientists and technicians....................................... Actuaries................................................................ Mathematicians.......................................................... Operations research analysts............................................. Statisticians.................................................................. Miscellaneous mathematical science occupations...................... Architecture and engineering occupations...................................... Architects, surveyors, and cartographers.................................... Architects, except naval.............................................................. Architects, except landscape and naval ................................ Landscape architects............................................... Surveyors, cartographers, and photogrammetrists....................... Cartographers and photogrammetrists........................................ Surveyors........................................................................... All other architects, surveyors, and cartographers ....................... Engineers.............................................................. Aerospace engineers............................................................. Agricultural engineers.................................................... Biomedical engineers ......................................................... Chemical engineers................................................. Civil engineers ........................................................ Computer hardware engineers.............................................. Electrical and electronics engineers......................................... Electrical engineers ................................................ Electronics engineers, except computer............................. Environmental engineers................................................ Industrial engineers, including health and safety.......................... Health and safety engineers, except mining safety engineers and inspectors ............................................. Industrial engineers ....................................................... Marine engineers and naval architects.......................................... Materials engineers ....................................................... Mechanical engineers........................................................ Mining and geological engineers, including mining safety engineers....................................................... Nuclear engineers.................................................................. Petroleum engineers.............................................................. All other engineers.................................................... Drafters, engineering, and mapping technicians ............................ Drafters........................................................................... Architectural and civil drafters.................................................. Electrical and electronics drafters.............................................. Mechanical drafters ..................................... ................. Engineering technicians, except drafters....................................... Aerospace engineering and operations technicians.................. Civil engineering technicians........................................................ Electrical and electronic engineering technicians....................... https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 2010 2000 2010 Percent Total job openings d u e to grow th and net replacem ents, 2000-101 236 94 79 69 169 248 126 86 81 216 0.2 .1 .1 .0 .1 0.1 .1 .1 .0 .1 12 32 7 12 47 4.9 34.0 8.3 17.4 28.0 59 43 28 26 81 26,758 33,709 18.4 20.1 6,952 26.0 12,160 2,993 2,903 585 459 28 431 697 380 317 506 106 229 119 203 89 85 14 4 47 19 5 2,605 196 124 102 22 65 7 58 6 1,465 50 2 7 33 232 60 288 157 130 52 198 4,988 4,894 680 729 39 689 1,361 760 601 996 176 416 211 326 95 90 15 4 51 20 5 2,930 229 150 121 29 71 8 63 8 1,603 57 3 9 34 256 75 319 175 144 66 210 2.1 2.0 .4 .3 .0 .3 .5 .3 .2 .3 .1 .2 .1 .1 .1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 1.8 .1 .1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 1.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .2 .0 .2 .1 .1 .0 .1 3.0 2.9 .4 .4 .0 .4 .8 .5 .4 .6 .1 .1 .2 .1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 1.7 .1 .1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 1.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .2 .0 .2 .1 .1 .0 .1 1,996 1,991 95 269 11 258 664 380 284 490 70 187 92 123 5 5 1 0 4 0 0 325 33 26 19 7 6 1 5 2 138 7 0 2 1 24 15 31 18 14 14 12 66.7 68.6 16.2 58.6 40.3 59.7 95.4 100.0 89.7 97.0 65.9 81.9 77.5 60.7 5.7 5.9 5.4 -1.9 8.0 2.3 2.7 12.5 17.1 20.7 18.5 31.1 9.2 18.5 8.1 28.5 9.4 13.9 14.8 31.4 4.1 10.2 24.9 10.9 11.3 10.4 26.0 5.9 2,285 2,259 217 309 14 296 711 406 306 512 74 197 97 141 26 25 3 0 19 3 1 868 61 33 25 3 26 3 22 2 432 22 1 4 7 60 23 84 47 37 24 45 44 154 5 33 221 49 161 5 35 251 .0 .1 .0 .0 .2 .0 .1 .0 .0 .1 5 7 0 2 29 10.9 4.5 2.1 5.3 13.1 12 33 1 9 94 6 14 9 253 944 213 102 41 70 519 21 94 233 6 14 8 254 1,098 255 123 51 81 582 22 105 258 .0 .0 .0 .2 .6 .1 .1 .0 .0 .4 .0 .1 .2 .0 .0 .0 .2 .7 .2 .1 .0 .0 .3 .0 .1 .2 0 0 -1 1 154 42 21 10 11 62 1 11 25 -1.3 1.8 -7.2 .4 16.3 19.5 20.8 23.3 15.4 12.0 5.6 11.9 10.8 1 3 2 51 375 106 52 22 32 167 5 30 72 .2 Monthly Labor Review November 2001 65 Occupational Employment T_______ a b le 2. Continued—Employment by occupation, 2000 and projected 2010 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] E m plo ym ent O ccupation C hange Percent distribution N um ber N um ber 2000 Electro-mechanical technicians.................................................... Environmental engineering technicians....................................... Industrial engineering technicians ................................................ Mechanical engineering technicians............................................. Surveying and mapping technicians............................................... All other drafters, engineering, and mapping technicians............ Life, physical, and social science occupations .................................. Life scientists ....................................................................................... Agricultural and food scientists....................................................... Biological scientists........................................................................... Conservation scientists and foresters............................................. Conservation scientists.................................................................. Foresters.......................................................................................... Medical scientists.............................................................................. All other life scientists....................................................................... Physical scientists............................................................................... Astronomers and physicists............................................................. Atmospheric and space scientists .................................................. Chemists and materials scientists .................................................. Chemists.......................................................................................... Materials scientists ......................................................................... Environmental scientists and geoscientists ................................... Environmental scientists and specialists, including health ........ Geoscientists, except hydrologists and geographers................ Hydrologists..................................................................................... All other physical scientists.............................................................. Social scientists and related occupations........................................ Economists........................................................................................ Market and survey researchers...................................................... Market research analysts............................................................... Survey researchers......................................................................... Psychologists..................................................................................... Social scientists, oth er..................................................................... Urban and regional planners........................................................... All other social scientists and related workers.............................. Life, physical, and social science technicians.................................. Agricultural and food science technicians...................................... Biological technicians ....................................................................... Chemical technicians........................................................................ Geological and petroleum technicians........................................... Nuclear technicians .......................................................................... Other life, physical, and social science technicians...................... Environmental science and protection technicians, including health........................................................................................... Forensic science technicians........................................................ Forest and conservation technicians............................................ All other life, physical, and social science technicians............... Community and social services occupations..................................... Counselors........................................................................................... Educational, vocational, and school counselors........................... Marriage and family therapists......................................................... Mental health counselors................................................................. Rehabilitation counselors................................................................. Substance abuse and behavioral disorder counselors................ Miscellaneous community and social service specialists .............. Health educators............................................................................... Probation officers and correctional treatment specialists ............ Social and human service assistants.............................................. Religious workers ............................................................................... Clergy ................................................................................................. Directors, religious activities and education................................... Social workers ..................................................................................... Child, family, and school social workers........................................ Medical and public health social workers ...................................... Mental health and substance abuse social workers..................... All other counselors, social, and religious workers......................... Legal occupations................................................................................. Judges, magistrates, and other judicial workers............................. Administrative law judges, adjudicators, and hearing officers.... Arbitrators, mediators, and conciliators ......................................... 66 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 2010 43 18 52 58 55 156 1,164 184 17 73 29 16 12 37 28 239 10 7 92 84 8 97 64 25 8 33 410 22 113 90 23 182 15 30 49 330 18 41 73 10 3 184 50 24 57 66 70 192 1,386 218 19 88 31 18 13 47 33 283 11 8 110 100 9 118 78 30 10 36 492 26 142 112 30 214 17 35 58 393 20 52 84 11 4 221 27 6 18 133 1,869 465 205 21 67 110 61 398 43 84 271 293 171 121 468 281 104 83 244 1,119 43 14 4 34 7 19 161 2,398 585 257 27 82 136 82 575 53 105 418 338 197 141 609 357 136 116 290 1,335 44 14 6 P ercent To tal job op en ing s du e to grow th and net replacem ents, 2000-101 2000 2010 0.0 0.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .8 .1 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .2 .0 .0 .1 .1 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .3 .0 .1 .1 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .2 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .8 .1 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .2 .0 .0 .1 .1 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .3 .0 .1 .1 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .2 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 .1 6 5 5 8 14 36 223 33 2 15 2 1 1 10 4 44 1 1 18 16 2 21 14 5 2 3 82 4 30 22 8 33 3 5 8 63 3 11 11 1 1 37 14.5 29.1 10.1 13.9 25.3 23.2 19.1 18.1 8.8 21.0 7.7 8.3 7.0 26.5 15.9 18.3 10.5 17.1 19.2 19.1 19.8 21.5 22.3 18.1 25.7 9.4 20.1 18.5 26.4 24.4 34.5 18.1 17.2 16.4 17.1 19.0 15.2 26.4 15.0 6.5 20.7 20.0 15 9 16 20 32 70 559 93 7 42 12 7 5 18 15 124 4 3 47 43 4 52 35 13 5 17 178 9 55 42 13 75 6 12 20 164 7 21 28 3 2 104 .0 .0 .0 .1 1.3 .3 .1 .0 .0 .1 .0 .3 .0 .1 .2 .2 .1 .1 .3 .2 .1 .1 .2 .8 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 1.4 .3 .2 .0 .0 .1 .0 .3 .0 .1 .2 .2 .1 .1 .4 .2 .1 .1 .2 .8 .0 .0 .0 7 1 1 29 529 120 52 6 15 26 21 177 10 20 147 45 26 19 141 76 33 33 46 216 2 0 1 24.5 13.0 3.2 21.7 28.3 25.8 25.3 29.9 21.7 23.6 35.0 44.5 23.5 23.8 54.2 15.4 15.0 15.9 30.1 26.9 31.6 39.1 18.8 19.3 3.8 1.1 27.2 17 3 7 77 846 215 94 11 28 49 34 236 17 33 187 112 73 40 193 107 44 42 89 304 14 4 2 Continued—Employment by occupatiori, 2000 and projected 2010 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] E m plo ym ent N um ber O ccu p atio n C hange P ercent d istrib utio n N um ber 2000 Judges, magistrate judges, and magistrates................................. Lawyers ..................................................................... Paralegals and legal assistants......................................................... Miscellaneous legal support workers................................................ Court reporters....................................................................... Law clerks............................................................................. Title examiners, abstractors, and searchers.................................. All other legal and related workers .................................................... Education, training, and library occupations.................................. Postsecondary teachers ................................... ..................... Primary, secondary, and special education teachers..................... Preschool and kindergarten teachers............................................. Preschool teachers, except special education...................... Kindergarten teachers, except special education....................... Elementary and middle school teachers.............................. Elementary school teachers, except special education............. Middle school teachers, except special and vocational education ............................................................... Vocational education teachers, middle school.......................... Secondary school teachers ............................................. Secondary school teachers, except special and vocational education ....................................................................... Vocational education teachers, secondary school...................... Special education teachers.......................................................... Special education teachers, preschool, kindergarten, and elementary school...................................................................... Special education teachers, middle school.................................. Special education teachers, secondary school........................... Other teachers and instructors ................................................... Adult literacy, remedial education, and GED teachers and instructors............................................................................. Self-enrichment education teachers ............................................ All other teachers, primary, secondary, and a d u lt........................ Library, museum, training, and other education occupations........ Archivists, curators, and museum technicians............................... Librarians............................................................................. Library technicians......................................................... Teacher assistants............................................................. Other education, training, library, and museum workers ............. Audio-visual collections specialists............................................. Farm and home management advisors........................................ Instructional coordinators........................................... All other library, museum, training, and other education workers............................................................ Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations........... Art and design occupations ........................................................ Artists and related workers .............................................. Art directors ............................................................... Fine artists, including painters, sculptors, and illustrators ......... Multi-media artists and animators....................................... Designers..................................................................... Commercial and industrial designers................................... Fashion designers ..................................................... Floral designers ............................................................. Graphic designers................................................................ Interior designers............................................................. Merchandise displayers and window trimmers........................... Set and exhibit designers ...................................................... All other art and design workers ..................................................... Entertainers and performers, sports and related occupations...... Actors, producers, and directors..................................................... Actors................................................................................... Producers and directors.................................. .............................. Athletes, coaches, umpires, and related workers......................... Athletes and sports competitors ................................................... Coaches and scouts............................................................ Umpires, referees, and other sports officials............................... Dancers and choreographers.................................................... Dancers ........................................................................................ Choreographers................................................................... https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 2010 2000 2010 P ercent To tal jo b op en in g s d u e to grow th and net rep lacem ents, 2000-101 24 681 188 98 18 31 48 109 8,260 1,344 4,284 597 423 175 2,122 1,532 24 803 251 106 21 35 49 131 9,831 1,659 4,995 707 507 200 2,381 1,734 0.0 .5 .1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .1 5.7 .9 2.9 .4 .3 .1 1.5 1.1 0.0 .5 .1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .1 5.9 1.0 3.0 .4 .3 .1 1.4 1.0 0 123 62 8 3 4 0 22 1,571 315 711 110 85 25 260 202 1.1 18.0 33.2 7.7 16.2 13.2 1.0 20.2 19.0 23.5 16.6 18.4 20.0 14.5 12.2 13.2 7 168 74 17 5 7 5 32 3,356 682 1,663 184 137 47 742 551 570 20 1,113 625 22 1,314 .4 .0 .8 .4 .0 .8 55 3 201 9.6 13.1 18.1 184 7 540 1,004 109 453 1,190 123 592 .7 .1 .3 .7 .1 .4 187 15 140 18.6 13.4 30.9 492 48 197 234 96 123 901 320 119 153 1,076 .2 .1 .1 .6 .2 .1 .1 .6 86 23 30 175 36.8 24.4 24.6 19.4 116 35 46 266 67 186 648 1,731 21 149 109 1,262 190 11 11 81 80 220 776 2,101 24 160 130 1,562 225 13 11 101 .0 .1 .4 1.2 .0 .1 .1 .9 .1 .0 .0 .1 .0 .1 .5 1.3 .0 .1 .1 .9 .1 .0 .0 .1 13 34 128 370 3 10 21 301 35 2 1 20 19.4 18.5 19.7 21.4 11.9 7.0 19.5 23.9 18.2 13.6 6.1 25.0 20 53 193 745 7 41 70 565 62 3 2 32 87 2,371 750 147 47 31 69 492 50 16 102 190 46 76 12 112 626 158 99 58 129 18 99 11 26 15 11 99 2,864 903 176 56 35 85 596 62 19 118 241 54 88 15 130 763 200 126 74 153 22 117 14 30 18 12 .1 1.6 .5 .1 .0 .0 .0 .3 .0 .0 .1 .1 .0 .1 .0 .1 .4 .1 .1 .0 .1 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 1.7 .5 .1 .0 .0 .1 .4 .0 .0 .1 .1 .0 .1 .0 .1 .5 .1 .1 .0 .1 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 12 493 153 29 10 4 15 104 12 3 15 51 8 12 3 19 136 42 26 16 24 4 17 3 4 3 2 14.0 20.8 20.3 20.0 21.1 13.4 22.2 21.2 23.8 20.3 14.9 26.7 17.4 15.9 27.0 16.8 21.8 26.9 26.7 27.1 18.7 22.5 17.6 22.7 16.3 17.3 14.9 25 947 251 60 19 10 30 154 17 5 26 70 13 20 4 37 257 73 46 27 50 7 37 5 9 6 4 Monthly Labor Review November 2001 67 Occupational Employment | Continued—Employment by occupation, 2000 and projected 2010 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] C hange E m ploym ent Percent distrib utio n N um ber O ccupatio n N um ber 2000 Musicians, singers, and related workers........................................ Music directors and composers.................................................... Musicians and singers................................................................... All other entertainers and performers, sports and related w orkers........................................................................................ Media and communication occupations............................................ Announcers........................................................................................ News analysts, reporters and correspondents ............................. Public relations specialists............................................................... Writers and editors............................................................................ Editors............................................................................................... Technical writers............................................................................. Writers and authors ....................................................................... Miscellaneous media and communications workers..................... Interpreters and translators............................................................ All other media and communication workers.............................. Media and communication equipment occupations........................ Broadcast and sound engineering technicians and radio operators...................................................................................... Audio and video equipment technicians...................................... Broadcast technicians..................................................................... Radio operators............................................................................... Sound engineering technicians..................................................... Photographers................................................................................... Television, video, and motion picture camera operators and editors.......................................................................................... Camera operators, television, video, and motion picture........... Film and video editors..................................................................... All other media and communication equipment workers ............. Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations ......................... Health diagnosing and treating practitioners................................... Chiropractors..................................................................................... Dentists............................................................................................... Dietitians and nutritionists................................................................ Optometrists ...................................................................................... Pharmacists....................................................................................... Physicians and surgeons................................................................. Physician assistants ......................................................................... Podiatrists........................................................................................... Registered nurses............................................................................. Therapists.......................................................................................... Audiologists ...................................................................................... Occupational therapists................................................................. Physical therapists.......................................................................... Radiation therapists........................................................................ Recreational therapists................................................................... Respiratory therapists..................................................................... Speech-language pathologists ..................................................... Veterinarians...................................................................................... All other health diagnosing and treating practitioners................... Other health professionals and technicians..................................... Clinical laboratory technologists and technicians......................... Medical and clinical laboratory technologists.............................. Medical and clinical laboratory technicians.................................. Dental hygienists ............................................................................... Diagnostic related technologists and technicians......................... Cardiovascular technologists and technicians............................ Diagnostic medical sonographers................................................. Nuclear medicine technologists.................................................... Radiologic technologists and technicians.................................... Emergency medical technicians and paramedics......................... Health diagnosing and treating practitioner support technicians Dietetic technicians......................................................................... Pharmacy technicians..................................................................... Psychiatric technicians .................................................................. Respiratory therapy technicians ................................................... Surgical technologists..................................................................... Veterinary technologists and technicians .................................... Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses....................... Medical records and health information technicians..................... 68 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 Total jo b o p en ing s due to grow th 2010 2000 2010 P ercent rep lacem ents, 2000-101 240 50 191 285 56 229 0.2 .0 .1 0.2 .0 .1 45 6 38 18.7 13.1 20.1 90 16 74 74 703 71 78 137 305 122 57 126 112 22 90 291 95 856 68 80 186 385 149 74 162 137 27 110 342 .1 .5 .0 .1 .1 .2 .1 .0 .1 .1 .0 .1 .2 .1 .5 .0 .0 .1 .2 .1 .0 .1 .1 .0 .1 .2 21 153 -4 2 49 80 27 17 36 25 5 20 51 28.3 21.8 -5.5 2.8 36.1 26.3 22.6 29.6 28.4 22.4 23.8 22.1 17.5 35 315 11 27 73 158 67 34 57 47 9 37 124 87 37 36 3 11 131 99 43 40 3 13 153 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 12 6 4 0 2 22 14.0 16.8 10.2 6.2 19.0 17.0 38 17 14 1 5 48 43 27 16 31 6,379 3,921 50 152 49 31 217 598 58 18 2,194 439 13 78 132 16 29 83 88 59 57 2,457 295 148 147 147 257 39 33 18 167 172 417 26 190 54 27 71 49 700 136 53 33 20 36 7,978 4,888 62 161 56 37 270 705 89 20 2,755 584 19 105 176 19 32 112 122 77 71 3,090 348 174 175 201 322 52 41 22 206 226 551 33 259 59 36 96 69 842 202 .0 .0 .0 .0 4.4 2.7 .0 .1 .0 .0 .1 .4 .0 .0 1.5 .3 .0 .1 .1 .0 .0 .1 .1 .0 .0 1.7 .2 .1 .1 .1 .2 .0 .0 .0 .1 .1 .3 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .5 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 4.8 2.9 .0 .1 .0 .0 .2 .4 .1 .0 1.6 .3 .0 .1 .1 .0 .0 .1 .1 .0 .0 1.8 .2 .1 .1 .1 .2 .0 .0 .0 .1 .1 .3 .0 .2 .0 .0 .1 .0 .5 .1 11 7 4 6 1,599 966 12 9 7 6 53 107 31 3 561 145 6 27 44 4 2 29 34 19 14 633 53 25 28 54 65 14 9 4 39 54 134 7 69 5 9 25 19 142 66 25.8 25.8 25.8 18.1 25.1 24.6 23.4 5.7 15.2 18.7 24.3 17.9 53.5 14.2 25.6 33.2 44.7 33.9 33.3 22.8 8.6 34.8 39.2 31.8 24.8 25.7 18.0 17.0 19.0 37.1 25.2 34.9 26.1 22.4 23.1 31.3 32.2 27.6 36.4 8.5 34.6 34.7 39.3 20.3 49.0 19 12 7 19 2,995 1,773 21 43 21 12 118 196 43 6 1,004 255 9 46 77 7 10 50 57 29 26 1,222 122 60 62 76 121 22 16 8 75 97 242 14 118 19 16 43 32 322 97 Table 2. Continued—Employment by occupation, 2000 and projected 2010 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] Em ploym ent N um ber O ccupation C hange Percent distribution N um ber 2000 2010 2000 2010 0.0 0.0 .2 .0 .0 .0 .2 42 Opticians, dispensing........................................................................ Other health practitioners and technical workers.......................... Athletic trainers............................................................................... Occupational health and safety specialists and technicians..... Orthotists and prosthetists............................................................. All other health practitioners and technical workers .................. 266 15 35 5 212 253 .2 .0 .0 .0 .1 Service occupations................................................................................ 26,075 31,163 17.9 18.6 Healthcare support occupations......................................................... Dental assistants ................................................................................ Massage therapists............................................................................. Nursing, psychiatric, and home health a id e s ................................... Home health aid e s ............................................................................ Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants....................................... Psychiatric aid e s ............................................................................... Occupational therapist assistants and aides ................................... Occupational therapist assistants................................................... Occupational therapist aides ........................................................... Physical therapist assistants and a id e s ........................................... Physical therapist assistants............................................................ Physical therapist a id e s ................................................................... Medical assistants and other healthcare support occupations...... Medical assistants ............................................................................ Medical equipment preparers......................................................... Medical transcriptionists .................................................................. Pharmacy a id e s ................................................................................ Veterinary assistants and laboratory animal caretakers.............. All other healthcare support workers.............................................. Protective service occupations............................................................ First-line supervisors/managers, protective service workers......... First-line supervisors/managers of correctional officers .............. First-line supervisors/managers of fire fighting and prevention workers ........................................................................................ First-line supervisors/managers of police and detectives............ First-line supervisors/managers of protective service workers, except police, fire and corrections........................................... Fire fighters.......................................................................................... Fire inspectors ..................................................................................... Law enforcement workers.................................................................. Bailiffs, correctional officers, and jailers......................................... Bailiffs............................................................................................... Correctional officers and jailers .................................................... Detectives and criminal investigators ............................................. Fish and game wardens .................................................................. Parking enforcement workers......................................................... Police and sheriff's patrol officers .................................................. Transit and railroad police ............................................................... Other protective service workers...................................................... Animal control workers .................................................................... Crossing guards................................................................................ Private detectives and investigators............................................... Security guards and gaming surveillance officers ........................ Gaming surveillance officers and gaming investigators............. Security guards............................................................................... All other protective service workers................................................ Food preparation and serving related occupations........................... Supervisors, food preparation and serving workers ....................... Chefs and head cooks...................................................................... First-line supervisors/managers of food preparation and serving workers ........................................................................................ Cooks and food preparation workers................................................ Cooks.................................................................................................. Cooks, fast foo d.............................................................................. Cooks, institution and cafeteria..................................................... Cooks, private household .............................................................. Cooks, restaurant ........................................................................... Cooks, short o rd e r.......................................................................... Food preparation workers................................................................ Food and beverage serving workers ................................................ 3,196 247 34 2,053 615 1,373 65 25 17 9 80 44 36 757 329 33 4,264 339 45 2,676 907 1,697 73 35 23 2.2 .2 .0 2.5 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 68 81 317 17 40 6 12 1.4 .4 .9 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 19.0 19.0 18.5 15.0 17.3 19.7 25 119 5,088 19.5 13,505 1,067 92 1,612 136 18 885 370 498 17 18 11 22 33.4 37.2 30.4 30.4 47.3 23.5 13.2 41.5 39.7 45.2 45.5 44.8 46.3 39.0 57.0 18.2 29.8 19.5 39.8 21.1 86 26.2 16.7 29.6 1,677 .0 38 809 46 9 .2 .0 1.6 .5 1.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 .6 13 50 3 5 Percent Total job openings du e to grow th and net replacem ents, 2000-101 1 10 623 291 323 9 10 7 4 36 6 14 2 96 11 6 102 116 64 53 1,052 516 39 132 57 55 181 3,087 273 30 77 219 3,896 319 38 .2 .0 .1 .0 .0 .1 2.1 .2 .0 66 136 .0 .1 .0 .1 4 16 7.2 13.1 24 48 78 280 15 1,445 563 15 548 108 9 .0 .2 .0 .8 .0 .2 .0 17 23 .9 .3 295 136 27.1 8.9 15.1 25.6 31.8 12.5 32.4 16.4 11.4 13.2 23.2 16.5 31.8 35 90 5 551 240 5 235 36 62 121 61 258 13 1,150 427 14 414 93 8 9 607 6 1,394 9 74 39 1,117 11 1,106 156 10,140 788 139 649 2,709 1,864 522 465 5 668 205 844 5,201 68 10 748 7 1,837 10 81 48 1,509 13 1,497 190 11,717 882 151 731 3,041 2,054 518 500 4 813 219 988 6,384 .5 .3 .0 .3 .0 .1 .0 .0 .1 2.3 .2 20 17 295 187 6 30 2 .0 2 .3 .3 .1 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 134 15 1 1 .4 .4 141 .0 1.0 .0 .1 .0 .8 .0 .8 .1 .0 1.1 .0 .0 .0 1 7.0 .5 .9 443 1 6 9 393 7.0 .5 .1 .1 12 9.0 .4 1.9 1.3 .4 .3 .4 83 333 190 12.7 12.3 35 .0 .0 -1 .5 .5 .1 .6 .1 .6 3.6 3.8 145 14 143 1,182 Monthly Labor Review 269 2 910 8 2 -4 2 2 32 391 34 1,577 95 .3 .3 14 8.7 23.5 35.2 16.8 35.4 21.7 15.6 .9 1.8 1.2 122 12.8 .0 .1 60 33 27 496 274 15 57 26 37 12.1 10.2 -.7 7.6 -18.0 21.7 6.8 16.9 22.7 20 698 5 693 153 6,256 301 55 246 1,193 725 148 167 1 335 72 469 4,218 November 2001 69 Occupational Employment Table 2. Continued—Employment by occupation, 2000 and projected 2010 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] E m plo ym ent N um ber O ccupatio n C h an g e P ercent d istrib utio n N um ber 2000 Bartenders.......................................................................................... Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast foo d............................................................................................... Counter attendants, cafeteria, food concession, and coffee shop Food servers, nonrestaurant............................................................ Waiters and waitresses..................................................................... Other food preparation and serving related workers ...................... Dining room and cafeteria attendants and bartender helpers...... Dishwashers ....................................................................................... Hosts and hostesses, restaurant, lounge, and coffee shop......... All other food preparation and serving related workers ............... Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations........ Supervisors, building and grounds cleaning and maintenance workers ......................................................................................... First-line supervisors/managers of housekeeping and janitorial workers ......................................................................................... First-line supervisors/managers of landscaping, lawn service, and groundskeeping workers..................................................... Building cleaning workers................................................................... Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners ........................................................................................ Maids and housekeeping cleaners................................................. Grounds maintenance workers.......................................................... Landscaping and groundskeeping w orkers................................... Pesticide handlers, sprayers, and applicators, vegetation........... Tree trimmers and pruners .............................................................. Pest control workers ............................................................................ All other building and grounds cleaning and maintenance workers Personal care and service occupations.............................................. First-line supervisors/managers of personal service workers........ Animal care and service workers....................................................... Animal trainers................................................................................... Nonfarm animal caretakers.............................................................. Child care workers............................................................................... Entertainment attendants and related workers............................... Motion picture projectionists............................................................ Ushers, lobby attendants, and ticket takers................................... Miscellaneous entertainment attendants and related workers..... Amusement and recreation attendants......................................... Costume, locker room and other attendants................................ Funeral service workers...................................................................... Embalmers.......................................................................................... Funeral attendants............................................................................. Gaming occupations............................................................................ First-line supervisors/managers, gaming workers........................ Gaming supervisors........................................................................ Slot key persons .............................................................................. Gaming services workers ................................................................. Gaming and sports book writers and runners.............................. Gaming dealers ............................................................................... All other gaming service workers..................................................... Personal appearance workers........................................................... Barbers ............................................................................................... Hairdressers, hairstylists, and cosmetologists............................... Miscellaneous personal appearance workers................................ Manicurists and pedicurists ........................................................... Shampooers .................................................................................... Skin care specialists....................................................................... Personal and home care a id e s .......................................................... Recreation and fitness workers ......................................................... Fitness trainers and aerobics instructors....................................... Recreation workers............................................................................ Residential advisors............................................................................. Transportation, tourism, and lodging attendants ............................. Baggage porters, bellhops, and concierges .................................. Baggage porters and bellhops....................................................... Concierges........................................................................................ Tour and travel guides...................................................................... Transportation attendants................................................................ Flight attendants ............................................................................. 70 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 2010 2000 2010 P ercent T o tal jo b op en in g s due to grow th a n d net rep lacem ents, 2000-101 387 439 0.3 0.3 52 13.4 204 2,206 421 205 1,983 1,442 431 525 343 143 5,549 2,879 482 238 2,347 1,410 402 483 388 137 6,328 1.5 .3 .1 1.4 1.0 .3 .4 .2 .1 3.8 1.7 .3 .1 1.4 .8 .2 .3 .2 .1 3.8 673 61 34 364 -33 -29 -42 45 -7 779 30.5 14.4 16.4 18.3 -2.3 -6.7 -8.0 13.0 -4.6 14.0 2,023 387 124 1,479 543 145 197 147 54 1,912 378 441 .3 .3 63 16.7 131 219 250 .2 .1 31 14.2 91 159 3,981 191 4,381 .1 2.7 .1 2.6 32 400 20.1 10.1 41 1,179 2,348 1,633 973 894 27 52 58 159 4,103 125 145 15 131 1,193 344 11 112 221 197 24 33 7 26 167 46 31 14 100 12 88 21 790 73 636 81 40 20 21 414 427 158 269 44 259 68 51 18 44 147 124 2,665 1,716 1,245 1,154 30 61 71 190 4,959 144 176 17 159 1,319 421 8 124 289 260 28 38 7 31 211 55 37 18 131 15 116 25 880 64 718 97 51 22 24 672 545 222 323 55 300 78 57 20 48 174 147 1.6 1.1 .7 .6 .0 .0 .0 .1 2.8 .1 .1 .0 .1 .8 .2 .0 .1 .2 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .1 .0 .1 .0 .5 .0 .4 .1 .0 .0 .0 .3 .3 .1 .2 .0 .2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .1 1.6 1.0 .7 .7 .0 .0 .0 .1 3.0 .1 .1 .0 .1 .8 .3 .0 .1 .2 .2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .1 .0 .1 .0 .5 .0 .4 .1 .0 .0 .0 .4 .3 .1 .2 .0 .2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .1 317 83 272 260 4 8 13 31 856 19 31 3 28 127 77 -3 12 68 64 5 5 0 5 44 9 6 3 31 3 28 4 90 -8 82 16 11 3 3 258 118 64 54 11 41 9 6 3 4 27 23 13.5 5.1 27.9 29.0 13.6 16.3 22.1 19.6 20.9 15.1 21.2 18.4 21.6 10.6 22.5 -27.0 11.0 30.9 32.4 19.1 13.8 -.6 17.8 26.5 20.0 18.4 23.3 31.1 21.6 32.4 18.7 11.4 -11.5 13.0 19.8 26.5 13.2 13.3 62.5 27.6 40.3 20.1 24.0 15.7 13.4 12.6 15.7 9.5 18.6 18.4 741 438 516 484 10 22 24 63 2,047 53 61 5 56 531 247 3 102 142 130 13 12 2 11 98 22 15 7 65 7 59 11 294 21 238 36 21 7 8 322 206 97 110 21 128 33 24 9 18 78 65 Table 2. _______ Continued—Employment by occupation, 2000 and projected 2010 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] E m plo ym ent N um ber O ccupatio n C hange Percent distribution N um ber 2000 2010 2000 2010 P ercent To tal job o p en ing s d u e to grow th and net replacem ents, 2000-101 Transportation attendants, except flight attendants and baggage porters.......................................................................... All other personal care and service workers.................................... 23 163 27 198 0.0 .1 0.0 .1 5 35 20.0 21.7 12 72 Sales and related occupations............................................................... 15,513 17,365 10.7 10.4 1,852 11.9 6,712 Advertising sales agents....................................................................... Cashiers.................................................................................................. Cashiers, except gam ing................................................................... Gaming change persons and booth cashiers .................................. Counter and rental clerks...................................................................... Door-to-door sales workers, news and street vendors, and related workers ........................................................................................ Insurance sales agents......................................................................... Models, demonstrators, and product promoters............................... Demonstrators and product promoters............................................. Models .................................................................................................. Parts salespersons................................................................................ Real estate brokers and sales agents ................................................ Real estate brokers............................................................................. Real estate sales agents ................................................................... Retail salespersons ............................................................................... Sales engineers..................................................................................... Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing ...................... Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, technical and scientific products ............................................................... Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, except technical and scientific products............................................... Securities, commodities, and financial services sales age n ts ......... Supervisors, sales workers.................................................................. First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers................. First-line supervisors/managers of non-retail sales workers.......... Telemarketers........................................................................................ Travel agents......................................................................................... All other sales and related workers..................................................... 155 3,363 3,325 38 423 196 3,851 3,799 52 506 .1 2.3 2.3 .0 .3 .1 2.3 2.3 .0 .3 41 488 474 14 82 26.3 14.5 14.2 36.1 19.4 72 2,013 1,982 31 274 166 378 121 118 4 260 432 93 339 4,109 85 1,821 156 390 152 147 5 248 473 102 371 4,619 100 1,932 .1 .3 .1 .1 .0 .2 .3 .1 .2 2.8 .1 1.3 .1 .2 .1 .1 .0 .1 .3 .1 .2 2.8 .1 1.2 -10 13 30 29 1 -12 41 9 32 510 15 111 -6.2 3.3 24.9 24.9 26.0 -4.4 9.5 9.6 9.5 12.4 17.7 6.1 42 109 70 68 2 77 116 25 91 2,073 37 606 396 426 .3 .3 30 7.5 137 1,425 367 2,504 2,072 432 572 135 621 1,507 449 2,697 2,240 457 699 139 758 1.0 .3 1.7 1.4 .3 .4 .1 .4 .9 .3 1.6 1.3 .3 .4 .1 .5 82 82 193 168 25 127 4 137 5.7 22.3 7.7 8.1 5.8 22.2 3.2 22.0 469 112 556 467 89 244 37 273 Office and administrative support occupations.................................... 23,882 26,053 16.4 15.5 2,171 9.1 7,667 First-line supervisors/managers of office and administrative support workers.......................................................................... Communications equipment operators............................................... Switchboard operators, including answering service...................... Telephone operators........................................................................... All other communications equipment operators.............................. Financial, information, and record clerks........................................... Financial clerks.................................................................................... Bill and account collectors ............................................................... Billing and posting clerks and machine operators ........................ Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks.............................. Gaming cage workers....................................................................... Payroll and timekeeping clerks....................................................... Procurement clerks........................................................................... Tellers................................................................................................. Information and record clerks............................................................ Brokerage clerks................................................................................ Correspondence clerks..................................................................... Court, municipal, and license clerks............................................... Credit authorizers, checkers, and clerks........................................ Customer service representatives.................................................. Eligibility interviewers, government programs .............................. File clerks........................................................................................... Hotel, motel, and resort desk clerks ............................................... Human resources assistants, except payroll and timekeeping .... Interviewers, except eligibility and loan ......................................... Library assistants, clerical................................................................ Loan Interviewers and clerks ........................................................... New accounts clerks......................................................................... Order clerks....................................................................................... Receptionists and information clerks.............................................. Reservation and transportation ticket agents and travel clerks ... 1,392 339 259 54 26 9,006 3,696 400 506 1,991 22 201 76 499 5,099 70 38 105 86 1,946 117 288 177 177 154 98 139 87 348 1,078 191 1,522 273 218 35 20 10,178 3,821 502 549 2,030 27 206 67 440 6,105 69 42 117 90 2,577 106 314 236 211 205 118 101 89 277 1,334 219 1.0 .2 .2 .0 .0 6.2 2.5 .3 .3 1.4 .0 .1 .1 .3 3.5 .0 .0 .1 .1 1.3 .1 .2 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .2 .7 .1 .9 .2 .1 .0 .0 6.1 2.3 .3 .3 1.2 .0 .1 .0 .3 3.6 .0 .0 .1 .1 1.5 .1 .2 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .2 .8 .1 130 -65 ^f1 -19 -6 1,172 126 101 43 39 6 5 -9 -59 1,006 -1 3 13 4 631 -11 26 59 34 51 19 -38 2 -71 256 28 9.4 -19.3 -15.7 -35.3 -21.8 13.0 3.4 25.3 8.5 2.0 25.2 2.3 -12.2 -11.8 19.7 -1.4 9.1 12.0 4.1 32.4 -9.3 9.1 33.4 19.3 33.4 19.7 -27.6 2.7 -20.4 23.7 14.5 399 101 77 16 9 3,237 1,121 201 167 417 15 63 17 240 2,047 9 15 29 11 796 34 118 136 74 84 63 9 21 74 493 79 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monthly Labor Review November 2001 71 Occupational Employment Table 2. Continued—Employment by occupation, 2000 and projected 2010 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] Employment Number Occupation Change Percent distribution Number 2000 All other financial, information, and record clerks........................... Material recording, scheduling, dispatching, and distributing occupations.................................................................................. Cargo and freight agents .................................................................... Couriers and Messengers................................................................... Dispatchers........................................................................................... Dispatchers, except police, fire, and ambulance.......................... Police, fire, and ambulance dispatchers......................................... Meter readers, utilities ........................................................................ Postal service workers........................................................................ Postal service clerks......................................................................... Postal service mail carriers.............................................................. Postal service mail sorters, processors, and processing machine operators...................................................................... Production, planning, and expediting clerks .................................... Shipping, receiving, and traffic clerks............................................... Stock clerks and order fillers.............................................................. Weighers, measurers, checkers, and samplers, recordkeeping .... All other material recording, scheduling, dispatching, and distributing workers..................................................................... Secretaries, administrative assistants, and other office support occupations.................................................................................. Computer operators............................................................................. Data entry and information processing workers .............................. Data entry keyers............................................................................... Word processors and typists ........................................................... Desktop publishers.............................................................................. Insurance claims and policy processing clerks................................ Mail clerks and mail machine operators, except postal service.... Office clerks, general.......................................................................... Office machine operators, except computer.................................... Proofreaders and copy markers ........................................................ Secretaries and administrative assistants ....................................... Executive secretaries and administrative assistants .................... Legal secretaries ............................................................................... Medical secretaries........................................................................... Secretaries, except legal, medical, and executive........................ Statistical assistants ............................................................................ All other secretaries, administrative assistants, and other office support workers.......................................................................... 2010 2000 2010 Percent Total job openings due to growth and net replacements, 2000-101 211 252 0.1 0.2 41 19.3 69 4,238 60 141 254 168 86 49 688 74 324 4,579 65 135 304 206 98 36 683 76 332 2.9 .0 .1 .2 .1 .1 .0 .5 .1 .2 2.7 .0 .1 .2 .1 .1 .0 .4 .0 .2 341 5 -5 50 37 12 -13 -5 2 8 8.1 8.3 -3.9 19.6 22.2 14.5 -26.0 -.7 2.4 2.4 1,530 17 38 92 65 27 12 187 18 106 289 332 890 1,679 83 275 391 973 1,821 98 .2 .2 .6 1.2 .1 .2 .2 .6 1.1 .1 -14 60 83 142 15 -4.9 17.9 9.3 8.5 17.9 63 115 262 740 35 63 73 .0 .0 10 15.5 32 8,908 194 806 509 297 38 289 188 2,705 84 35 3,902 1,445 279 314 1,864 21 9,500 161 774 534 240 63 231 207 3,135 68 33 4,167 1,612 336 373 1,846 22 6.1 .1 .6 .3 .2 .0 .2 .1 1.9 .1 .0 2.7 1.0 .2 .2 1.3 .0 5.7 .1 .5 .3 .1 .0 .1 .1 1.9 .0 .0 2.5 1.0 .2 .2 1.1 .0 592 -33 -32 25 -57 25 -58 19 430 -16 -2 265 167 57 60 -18 0 6.6 -17.1 -3.9 4.9 -19.1 66.7 -20.2 9.9 15.9 -18.8 -5.5 6.8 11.5 20.3 19.0 -1.0 2.1 2,400 35 165 106 60 32 50 74 949 29 13 946 412 104 113 317 2 645 639 .4 .4 -6 -.9 104 Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations........................................... 1,429 1,480 1.0 .9 51 3.6 485 First-line supervisors/managers/contractors of farming, fishing, and forestry workers................................................................... Agricultural workers............................................................................... Agricultural inspectors ........................................................................ Farmworkers......................................................................................... Graders and sorters, agricultural products ...................................... Fishers and fishing vessel operators.................................................. Forest, conservation, and logging workers......................................... Forest and conservation workers....................................................... Logging workers .................................................................................. Fallers.................................................................................................. Logging equipment operators.......................................................... Log graders and scalers................................................................... All other farming, fishing, and forestry workers.................................. 100 987 15 909 63 53 90 21 69 13 47 8 199 113 1,024 16 939 69 46 88 22 66 12 46 8 209 .1 .7 .0 .6 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .1 .6 .0 .6 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 13 37 1 30 6 -6 -2 1 -2 -1 -1 0 10 13.0 3.7 6.6 3.3 9.1 -12.2 -1.8 3.9 -3.5 -8.7 -2.0 -4.0 4.9 21 359 5 334 20 17 19 6 13 3 9 2 70 Construction and extraction occupations.............................................. 7,451 8,439 5.1 5.0 989 13.3 2,469 First-line supervisors/managers of construction trades and extraction workers....................................................................... Construction trades and related workers............................................ Boilermakers......................................................................................... Brickmasons, blockmasons, and stonemasons............................... Brickmasons and blockmasons....................................................... Stonemasons..................................................................................... Carpenters............................................................................................ Carpet, floor, and tile installers and finishers................................... Carpet installers................................................................................. 792 6,466 27 158 144 14 1,204 167 76 923 7,328 28 179 162 17 1,302 189 84 .5 4.4 .0 .1 .1 .0 .8 .1 .1 .6 4.4 .0 .1 .1 .0 .8 .1 .1 131 862 1 21 18 3 98 22 8 16.5 13.3 2.1 13.2 12.5 20.8 8.2 13.2 10.5 311 2,086 8 50 45 5 302 50 21 Monthly Labor Review Digitized for 72 FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 Table 2. Continued—Employment by occupation, 2000 and projected 2010 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] E m ploym ent N um ber O ccupatio n C hange Percent distrib utio n N um ber 2000 Floor layers, except carpet, wood, and hard tile s ......................... Floor sanders and finishers ............................................................. Tile and marble setters..................................................................... Cement masons, concrete finishers, and terrazzo workers........... Cement masons and concrete finishers ........................................ Terrazzo workers and finishers....................................................... Construction laborers.......................................................................... Construction equipment operators.................................................... Operating engineers and other construction equipment operators...................................................................................... Paving, surfacing, and tamping equipment operators ................. Pile-driver operators ......................................................................... Drywall installers, ceiling tile installers, and tapers......................... Drywall and ceiling tile installers..................................................... Tapers................................................................................................. Electricians ........................................................................................... Glaziers................................................................................................. Insulation workers................................................................................ Painters, construction and maintenance.......................................... Paperhangers...................................................................................... Pipelayers, plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters......................... Pipelayers........................................................................................... Plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters .......................................... Plasterers and stucco masons........................................................... Reinforcing iron and rebar workers................................................... Roofers ................................................................................................. Sheet metal workers........................................................................... Structural iron and steel w orkers...................................................... Helpers, construction trad es.............................................................. Helpers-Brickmasons, blockmasons, stonemasons, and tile and marble setters............................................................................. Helpers-Carpenters .......................................................................... Helpers-Electricians.......................................................................... Helpers-Painters, paperhangers, plasterers, and stucco masons Helpers-Pipelayers, plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters ........ Helpers-Roofers................................................................................. All other helpers, construction trades ............................................. Other construction and related workers........................................... Construction and building inspectors.............................................. Elevator installers and repairers..................................................... Fence erectors................................................................................... Hazardous materials removal workers .......................................... Highway maintenance workers....................................................... Rail-track laying and maintenance equipment operators............. Septic tank servicers and sewer pipe cleaners............................. All other construction and related workers..................................... Extraction workers ................................................................................. Derrick, rotary drill, and service unit operators, oil, gas, and m ining........................................................................................... Derrick operators, oil and g a s .......................................................... Rotary drill operators, oil and g a s ................................................... Service unit operators, oil, gas, and mining................................... Earth drillers, except oil and g a s ....................................................... Explosives workers, ordnance handling experts, and blasters..... Helpers-Extraction workers................................................................ Mining machine operators ................................................................. Continuous mining machine operators .......................................... Miscellaneous mining machine operators...................................... Roustabouts, oil and g a s .................................................................... All other extraction workers ............................................................... Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations............................... First-line supervisors/managers of mechanics, installers, and repairers....................................................................................... Electrical and electronic equipment mechanics, installers, and repairers....................................................................................... Avionics technicians ........................................................................... Computer, automated teller, and office machine repairers............ Electric motor, power tool, and related repairers............................ https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 2010 2000 2010 Percent Total jo b op en ing s due to grow th and net replacem ents, 2000-101 23 14 54 166 162 3 791 416 27 16 62 171 167 4 926 450 0.0 0.0 4 .0 .0 .1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .1 .1 .0 2 8 0 2.0 0 .5 .3 .6 .3 135 34 17.0 207 123 357 55 4 188 143 44 698 49 53 491 27 568 65 503 54 27 158 224 84 450 382 63 5 205 157 48 819 56 60 585 32 627 73 554 61 32 188 275 99 510 .2 .0 .0 .1 .1 .0 .2 .0 .0 .1 .1 .0 25 .5 .5 120 .0 .0 .0 .0 6.9 15.5 14.0 9.1 9.4 8.3 17.3 14.8 13.6 19.1 58 66 101 108 129 30 96 28 53 534 114 27 86 23 41 465 75 23 29 37 151 86 15 123 193 27 30 49 159 9 18 156 189 45 16 18 44 16 17 12 5 5 8 1 17 13 4 15.8 14.7 15.6 3.0 3.0 8.1 8 4 17 19 19 103 19 1 35 27 8 251 16 23 180 20.2 10 .4 .4 7 7 94 5 59 .0 .0 8 10.4 11.9 51 6 5 31 51 15 60 11.9 17.5 19.4 23.0 18.4 13.3 153 19 134 16 8 14.1 7 15 3 6.6 .3 .3 .0 .0 .3 .3 .0 .0 .1 .2 .1 .0 .0 .1 .2 .1 .3 .3 .0 .1 .1 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .1 .1 .0 .1 .0 .0 .3 .3 69 .1 .0 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 .1 .1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 .1 .1 11 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 10 5 12 4 1 12 8 -3 3 33 -4 10.2 13.3 12.9 11.5 19.3 29.1 14.8 15.0 17.2 4.6 32.8 5.2 -26.1 16.5 26.7 8 67 98 24 2 83 37 57 72 17 53 16 32 162 28 11 6 23 31 3 6 -2.1 54 72 -3.5 16 .1 -8.0 -1.2 12.6 6 6 41 19 40 17 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 5,820 6,482 4.0 3.9 662 11.4 1,944 442 513 .3 .3 71 16.0 186 683 16 172 37 726 17 197 40 .5 .4 43 .0 .1 .0 .0 .1 .0 2 6.3 9.8 14.2 7.9 178 5 43 11 11 24 5 37 27 5 38 19 22 10 12 8 11 -2 0 -1 0 3 0 4 8 2 -1 -2 -2 -2 1.9 2.4 -12.9 -13.4 -12.5 -4.2 -10.7 3 4 14 7 1 -3 24 3 Monthly Labor Review 18 8 11 November 2001 73 Occupational Employment Continued—Employment by occupation, 2000 and projected 2010 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] E m ploym ent N um ber O ccupatio n C hange P ercent distribution N um ber 2000 Electrical and electronics installers and repairers, transportation equipment.......................................................................... Electrical and electronics repairers, industrial and utility............... Electrical and electronics repairers, commercial and industrial equipment............................................................................. Electrical and electronics repairers, powerhouse, substation, and re la y ...................................................................................... Electronic equipment installers and repairers, motor vehicles....... Electronic home entertainment equipment installers and repairers Radio and telecommunications equipment installers and repairers...................................................................................... Radio mechanics............................................................................ Telecommunications equipment installers and repairers, except line installers.......................................................................... Security and fire alarm systems installers ....................................... All other electrical and electronic equipment mechanics, installers, and repairers ............................................................. Vehicle and mobile equipment mechanics, installers, and repairers Aircraft mechanics and service technicians..................................... Automotive body and related repairers............................................. Automotive glass installers and repairers........................................ Automotive service technicians and mechanics ............................. Bus and truck mechanics and diesel engine specialists................ Heavy vehicle and mobile equipment service technicians and mechanics.................................................................................... Farm equipment mechanics ............................................................ Mobile heavy equipment mechanics, except engines ................. Rail car repairers .............................................................................. Small engine mechanics..................................................................... Motorboat mechanics ....................................................................... Motorcycle mechanics...................................................................... Outdoor power equipment and other small engine mechanics.... Miscellaneous vehicle and mobile equipment mechanics, installers, and repairers ............................................................. Bicycle repairers............................................................................... Recreational vehicle service technicians....................................... Tire repairers and changers............................................................. All other vehicle and mobile equipment mechanics, installers, and repairers.............................................................................. Other installation, maintenance, and repair occupations................. Coin, vending, and amusement machine servicers and repairers Control and valve installers and repairers ....................................... Control and valve installers and repairers, except mechanical door.............................................................................................. Mechanical door repairers............................................................... Heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers....................................................................................... Helpers-lnstallation, maintenance, and repair workers.................. Home appliance repairers.................................................................. Industrial machinery mechanics ........................................................ Line installers and repairers............................................................... Electrical power-line installers and repairers ................................. Telecommunications line installers and repairers......................... Locksmiths and safe repairers........................................................... Maintenance and repair workers, general ....................................... Maintenance workers, machinery.................................................... Manufactured building and mobile home installers......................... Millwrights........................................................................ Precision instrument and equipment repairers................................ Camera and photographic equipment repairers........................... Medical equipment repairers ........................................................... Musical instrument repairers and tuners........................................ Watch repairers ................................................................................. All other precision instrument and equipment repairers .............. Riggers ................................................................................................. All other installation, maintenance, and repair workers ................. Production occupations .......................................................................... 74 Monthly Labor Review November 2001 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 2010 2000 2010 Percent T o tal jo b o p en ing s due to grow th a n d net rep lacem ents, 2000-101 14 108 15 116 0.0 0.0 .1 .1 2 8 13.6 7.3 4 30 90 98 .1 .1 8 9.2 26 18 13 37 18 15 30 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 0 2 -7 -2.3 15.6 -17.9 4 5 7 196 7 188 5 .1 .0 .1 .0 -7 -2 -3.8 -24.2 37 1 189 44 183 54 .1 .0 .1 .0 -6 10 -3.1 23.4 36 18 48 1,931 158 199 22 840 285 54 2,218 184 219 24 991 326 .0 1.3 .1 .1 .0 .6 .2 .0 1.3 .1 .1 .0 .6 .2 6 286 26 20 2 151 40 13.4 14.8 16.7 10.2 10.5 18.0 14.2 17 778 60 69 8 349 114 185 41 130 14 73 25 14 33 203 42 148 13 79 27 16 36 .1 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 17 0 18 -1 6 2 1 3 9.4 .9 14.0 -7.6 8.6 9.0 8.6 8.2 66 11 52 4 24 9 5 11 170 9 12 89 192 10 15 95 .1 .0 .0 .1 .1 .0 .0 .1 22 2 3 6 13.2 17.7 25.4 6.8 87 5 8 40 60 2,764 37 46 72 3,026 44 48 .0 1.9 .0 .0 .0 1.8 .0 .0 12 262 7 2 19.6 9.5 18.5 5.2 35 802 15 17 34 11 35 13 .0 .0 .0 .0 1 1 2.7 12.7 12 5 243 145 43 198 263 99 164 23 1,251 114 17 72 63 7 28 7 5 15 20 228 297 172 46 205 317 108 209 25 1,310 120 20 75 69 7 33 8 6 16 22 254 .2 .1 .0 .1 .2 .1 .1 .0 .9 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .2 .2 .1 .0 .1 .2 .1 .1 .0 .8 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .2 54 27 3 7 54 9 45 2 59 7 3 3 6 0 4 1 0 1 2 26 22.3 18.5 6.2 3.4 20.7 9.3 27.6 8.7 4.7 5.8 19.1 3.9 9.7 -2.1 14.9 9.4 6.2 6.8 10.1 11.5 79 101 11 60 118 41 76 10 221 37 7 25 22 2 11 2 2 5 6 73 13,060 13,811 9.0 8.2 750 5.7 3,932 Table 2. Continued—Employment by occupation, 2000 and projected 2010 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] Em ploym ent N um ber O ccupation C hange Percent distribution N um ber 2000 First-line supervisors/managers of production and operating workers ................................................................................ Assemblers and fabricators................................................................. Aircraft structure, surfaces, rigging, and systems assemblers ...... Electrical, electronics, and electromechanical assemblers............ Coil winders, tapers, and finishers.................................................. Electrical and electronic equipment assemblers........................... Electromechanical equipment assemblers.................................... Engine and other machine assemblers ............................................ Structural metal fabricators and fitters.............................................. Miscellaneous assemblers and fabricators...................................... Fiberglass laminators and fabricators............................................. Team assemblers ............................................................................. Timing device assemblers, adjusters, and calibrators................. All other assemblers and fabricators .............................................. Food processing occupations.............................................................. Bakers................................................................................................... Butchers and other meat, poultry, and fish processing workers .... Butchers and meat cutters............................................................... Meat, poultry, and fish cutters and trimmers.................................. Slaughterers and meat packers.................. ................................... Food and tobacco roasting, baking, and drying machine operators and tenders............................ ................................... Food batch m akers.............................................................................. Food cooking machine operators and tenders ............................... All other food processing workers..................................................... Metal workers and plastic workers...................................................... Computer control programmers and operators............................... Computer-controlled machine tool operators, metal and plastic .. Numerical tool and process control programmers........................ Cutting, punching, and press machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic.......................................................... Drilling and boring machine tool setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic......................................................................... Extruding and drawing machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic......................................................................... Forging machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic........................................................................................... Grinding, lapping, polishing, and buffing machine tool setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic............................... Heat treating equipment setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic.................................................................................... Lathe and turning machine tool setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic......................................................................... Lay-out workers, metal and plastic................................................... Machinists.............................................................................. Metal furnace and kiln operators and tenders ................................. Metal-refining furnace operators and tenders............................... Pourers and casters, m etal..................................................... Milling and planing machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic......................................................................... Model makers and patternmakers, metal and plastic..................... Model makers, metal and plastic.................................................... Patternmakers, metal and plastic ................................................... Molders and molding machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic......................................................................... Foundry mold and coremakers....................................................... Molding, coremaking, and casting machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic.................................................. Multiple machine tool setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic........................................................................................... Plating and coating machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic......................................................................... Rolling machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic......................................................................................... Tool and die makers ........................................................................... Tool grinders, filers, and sharpeners................................................ Welding, soldering, and brazing workers......................................... Welders, cutters, solderers, and brazers....................................... https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 2010 2000 2010 Percent Total jo b openings d u e to grow th and net replacem ents, 2000-101 819 2,653 20 508 56 379 73 67 101 1,957 48 1,458 12 439 760 160 411 141 148 122 827 2,824 23 492 61 355 76 72 120 2,117 53 1,545 12 507 783 187 415 128 162 125 0.6 1.8 .0 .3 .0 .3 .1 .0 .1 1.3 .0 1.0 .0 .3 .5 .1 .3 .1 .1 .1 0.5 1.7 .0 .3 .0 .2 .0 .0 .1 1.3 .0 .9 .0 .3 .5 .1 .2 .1 .1 .1 9 171 3 -16 5 -24 3 5 20 160 5 87 0 68 23 27 5 -13 14 3 1.0 6.5 14.2 -3.1 8.2 -6.3 4.5 7.1 19.5 8.2 11.4 5.9 2.5 15.4 3.0 16.8 1.2 -8.9 9.5 2.6 224 702 8 138 19 97 22 18 35 503 14 342 2 144 214 52 117 34 50 33 18 66 37 69 2,907 186 162 24 17 67 37 61 3,156 222 194 28 .0 .0 .0 .0 2.0 .1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 1.9 .1 .1 .0 -2 1 0 -8 249 36 32 4 -9.0 1.4 .6 -11.6 8.6 19.3 19.7 16.6 4 17 7 17 994 102 89 12 372 357 .3 .2 -15 ^i.O 73 23 71 68 .0 .0 -3 -4.5 126 143 .1 .1 17 13.5 45 54 59 .0 .0 5 9.1 22 145 156 .1 .1 11 7.3 46 43 49 .0 .0 6 13.4 14 84 18 430 40 24 16 78 17 469 43 26 18 .1 .0 .3 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .3 .0 .0 .0 -6 -1 39 3 2 1 -7.4 -6.0 9.1 7.2 7.4 6.9 33 5 127 14 8 6 34 19 11 9 32 18 10 8 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 -2 -1 0 -1 -6.7 -5.6 -3.2 -8.4 11 5 3 2 235 59 252 59 .2 .0 .2 .0 17 -1 7.0 -1.2 65 12 176 193 .1 .1 17 9.8 53 105 121 .1 .1 15 14.7 32 65 72 .0 .0 7 10.2 20 49 130 29 521 446 50 132 27 618 532 .0 .1 .0 .4 .3 .0 .1 .0 .4 .3 1 3 -2 97 86 1.4 2.2 -7.7 18.7 19.3 17 35 8 244 211 Monthly Labor Review November 2001 75 Occupational Employment Table 2. Continued—Employment by occupation, 2000 and projected 2010 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] E m plo ym ent N um ber O c cupatio n C hange P ercent distrib utio n N um ber 2000 Welding, soldering, and brazing machine setters, operators, and tenders.......................................................................................... All other metal workers and plastic workers .................................... Plant and system operators.................................................................. Power plant operators, distributors, and dispatchers...................... Nuclear power reactor operators..................................................... Power distributors and dispatchers................................................. Power plant operators....................................................................... Stationary engineers and boiler operators........................................ Water and liquid waste treatment plant and system operators..... Miscellaneous plant and system operators...................................... Chemical plant and system operators ............................................ Gas plant operators .......................................................................... Petroleum pump system operators, refinery operators, and gaugers......................................................................................... All other plant and system operators .............................................. Printing occupations .............................................................................. Bookbinders and bindery workers ..................................................... Bindery workers................................................................................. Bookbinders........................................................................................ Job printers........................................................................................... Prepress technicians and workers..................................................... Printing machine operators................................................................. All other printing workers .................................................................... Textile, apparel, and furnishings occupations.................................... Extruding and forming machine setters, operators, and tenders, synthetic and glass fibers .......................................................... Fabric and apparel patternmakers..................................................... Laundry and dry-cleaning workers..................................................... Pressers, textile, garment, and related materials ............................ Sewing machine operators................................................................. Shoe and leather workers and repairers........................................... Shoe machine operators and tenders............................................... Tailors, dressmakers, and sew ers..................................................... Sewers, han d ...................................................................................... Tailors, dressmakers, and custom sewers .................................... Textile bleaching and dyeing machine operators and tenders ..... Textile cutting machine setters, operators, and tenders................ Textile knitting and weaving machine setters, operators, and tenders.......................................................................................... Textile winding, twisting, and drawing out machine setters, operators, and tenders................................................................ Upholsterers ......................................................................................... All other textile, apparel, and furnishings workers.......................... Woodworkers.......................................................................................... Cabinetmakers and bench carpenters.............................................. Furniture finishers................................................................................ Model makers and patternmakers, w ood.......................................... Sawing machine setters, operators, and tenders, w o od................ Woodworking machine setters, operators, and tenders, except sawing........................................................................................... All other woodworkers ........................................................................ Other production occupations............................................................... Cementing and gluing machine operators and tenders.................. Chemical processing machine setters, operators, and tenders.... Chemical equipment operators and tenders.................................. Separating, filtering, clarifying, precipitating, and still machine setters, operators, and tenders................................................. Cleaning, washing, and metal pickling equipment operators and tenders.......................................................................................... Cooling and freezing equipment operators and tenders................ Crushing, grinding, polishing, mixing, and blending workers......... Crushing, grinding, and polishing machine setters, operators, and tenders.................................................................................. Grinding and polishing workers, hand ............................................ Mixing and blending machine setters, operators, and tenders .... Cutting workers.................................................................................... Cutters and trimmers, hand ............................................................. Cutting and slicing machine setters, operators, and tenders....... Etchers and engravers........................................................................ 76 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 2010 2000 P ercent 2010 To tal jo b o p en ing s du e to g row th an d net rep lacem ents, 2000-101 74 150 368 55 4 15 36 57 88 167 71 12 86 174 384 55 4 14 37 56 104 168 69 11 0.1 .1 .3 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .1 .0 .0 0.1 .1 .2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .1 .0 .0 11 25 16 0 0 -1 1 -1 16 1 -2 -1 15.1 16.4 4.4 -.4 -3.4 -5.1 1.8 -1.3 18.1 .6 -3.3 -6.3 32 54 133 17 1 4 11 16 44 56 22 4 35 49 534 115 105 10 56 107 222 34 1,317 34 54 543 124 113 10 59 90 234 35 1,285 .0 .0 .4 .1 .1 .0 .0 .1 .2 .0 .9 .0 .0 .3 .1 .1 .0 .0 .1 .1 .0 .8 -1 6 8 9 8 1 4 -17 12 1 -32 -4.1 11.4 1.6 7.4 7.3 8.2 6.4 -15.6 5.5 2.0 -2.4 11 20 160 39 36 3 18 26 68 9 301 41 15 236 110 399 19 9 101 43 58 37 38 44 14 263 112 348 15 4 91 40 51 41 35 .0 .0 .2 .1 .3 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .2 .1 .2 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 2 -1 27 2 -51 -4 -5 -9 -3 -7 4 -2 5.7 -5.4 11.4 1.7 -12.9 -21.4 -53.6 -9.3 -6.6 -11.4 10.8 -6.5 13 5 89 17 42 7 1 22 9 13 11 6 70 68 .0 .0 -2 -2.4 11 90 58 95 409 159 45 10 57 86 53 112 446 175 49 12 64 .1 .0 .1 .3 .1 .0 .0 .0 .1 .0 .1 .3 .1 .0 .0 .0 -4 -6 17 37 16 4 2 7 -4.4 -9.5 18.0 9.0 9.8 8.4 16.0 11.7 19 19 36 187 66 22 6 29 103 35 3,293 36 100 61 108 38 3,563 38 110 70 .1 .0 2.3 .0 .1 .0 .1 .0 2.1 .0 .1 .0 5 4 269 2 10 9 5.3 10.6 8.2 6.7 9.9 14.9 47 18 1,017 11 33 23 39 40 .0 .0 1 2.2 10 20 7 202 17 7 222 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 .1 -3 0 21 -14.2 -1.3 10.3 5 1 65 44 49 109 115 32 83 15 49 55 118 117 33 84 16 .0 .0 .1 .1 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .1 .1 .0 .1 .0 4 7 10 2 1 1 2 9.8 13.7 9.0 1.8 2.2 1.7 11.1 14 17 33 23 6 16 5 Continued—Employment by occupation, 2000 and projected 2010 [Numbers in thousands ot jobs] Em ploym ent N um ber O ccupatio n C hange Percent distribution N um ber 2000 Extruding, forming, pressing, and compacting machine setters, operators, and tenders............................................................... Furnace, kiln, oven, drier, and kettle operators and tenders ......... Helpers-Production workers .............................................................. Inspectors, testers, sorters, samplers, and weighers ..................... Jewelers and precious stone and metal workers............................ Medical, dental, and ophthalmic laboratory workers....................... Dental laboratory technicians .......................................................... Medical appliance technicians......................................................... Ophthalmic laboratory technicians.................................................. Molders, shapers, and casters, except metal and plastic.............. Packaging and filling machine operators and tenders.................... Painting workers.................................................................................. Coating, painting, and spraying machine setters, operators, and tenders......................................................................................... Painters, transportation equipment................................................. Painting, coating, and decorating workers..................................... Paper goods machine setters, operators, and tenders................... Photographic process workers and processing machine operators...................................................................................... Photographic process workers ....................................................... Photographic processing machine operators ............................... Semiconductor processors................................................................ Tire builders......................................................................................... All other production workers.............................................................. 2010 2000 2010 Percent Total job openings d u e to grow th and net replacem ents, 2000-101 73 33 525 602 43 88 43 13 32 42 379 195 80 34 587 591 44 95 46 15 34 45 433 223 0.1 .0 .4 .4 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .3 .1 0.0 .0 .3 .4 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .3 .1 7 1 62 -11 1 7 3 2 2 3 54 28 9.0 3.2 11.9 -1.9 1.3 7.9 6.3 19.0 5.7 7.4 14.4 14.5 24 10 194 133 12 31 14 6 11 14 138 72 108 49 38 123 121 57 45 116 .1 .0 .0 .1 .1 .0 .0 .1 13 9 7 -7 11.9 17.5 17.9 -5.4 37 19 15 24 76 26 50 52 18 549 77 24 53 69 20 619 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .4 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .4 2 -2 4 17 2 70 2.2 -8.2 7.6 32.4 8.6 12.7 23 7 17 26 5 168 Transportation and material moving occupations................................ 10,088 11,618 6.9 6.9 1,530 15.2 3,949 Supervisors, transportation and material moving workers............... Aircraft cargo handling supervisors .................................................. First-line supervisors/managers of helpers, laborers, and material movers, h a n d .............................................................................. First-line supervisors/managers of transportation and material-moving machine and vehicle operators.................... Air transportation occupations ............................................................. Aircraft pilots and flight engineers..................................................... Airline pilots, copilots, and flight engineers.................................... Commercial pilots............................................................................. Air traffic controllers and airfield operations specialists................. Air traffic controllers.......................................................................... Airfield operations specialists .......................................................... All other air transportation workers................................................... Motor vehicle operators........................................................................ Ambulance drivers and attendants, except emergency medical technicians................................................................................... Bus drivers............................................................................................ Bus drivers, school ........................................................................... Bus drivers, transit and intercity...................................................... Driver/sales workers and truck drivers.............................................. Driver/sales workers......................................................................... Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer.......................................... Truck drivers, light or delivery services.......................................... Taxi drivers and chauffeurs ............................................................... All other motor vehicle operators...................................................... Rail transportation occupations ........................... ............................... Locomotive engineers and firers........................................................ Railroad brake, signal, and switch operators................................... Railroad conductors and yardmasters.............................................. Rail yard engineers, dinkey operators, and hostlers....................... All other rail transportation workers.................................................. Water transportation occupations....................................................... Sailors and marine oile rs .................................................................... Ship and boat captains and operators.............................................. Ship engineers..................................................................................... All other water transportation workers.............................................. Related transportation occupations.................................................... Bridge and lock tenders...................................................................... Parking lot attendants......................................................................... Service station attendants ................................................................. Traffic technicians................................................................................ 357 10 427 13 .2 .0 .3 .0 70 3 19.7 27.7 147 5 153 182 .1 .1 29 18.9 62 194 166 117 98 19 31 27 5 17 4,237 233 186 129 104 24 35 29 6 22 4,982 .1 .1 .1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 2.9 .1 .1 .1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 3.0 39 20 11 6 5 3 2 1 5 745 19.9 12.2 9.8 6.4 26.9 10.2 7.2 27.1 32.2 17.6 80 68 38 29 10 17 13 3 13 1,398 15 666 481 185 3,268 402 1,749 1,117 176 112 115 37 22 45 4 7 70 32 25 9 5 309 4 117 112 4 20 754 537 217 3,857 430 2,095 1,331 219 132 94 38 9 36 4 7 74 33 26 9 5 341 4 140 110 5 .0 .5 .3 .1 2.2 .3 1.2 .8 .1 .1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .2 .0 .1 .1 .0 .0 .4 .3 .1 2.3 .3 1.2 .8 .1 .1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .2 .0 .1 .1 .0 5 88 56 32 589 29 346 215 43 20 -21 1 -13 -8 0 0 3 2 1 0 0 32 -1 23 -2 1 33.7 13.2 11.6 17.4 18.0 7.1 19.8 19.2 24.4 18.2 -18.5 2.3 -60.8 -18.9 -4.5 -4.1 4.4 4.9 3.4 5.8 4.2 10.4 -19.1 19.8 -1.7 14.1 6 257 178 79 1,038 84 586 368 57 39 52 18 10 20 2 3 27 12 9 3 2 139 2 43 57 2 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monthly Labor Review November 2001 77 Occupational Employment T a b le 2. Continued—Employment by occupation, 2000 and projected 2010 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] E m p lo y m e n t C hange T o ta l jo b o p e n in g s Num ber O c c u p a tio n P e rc e n t d is tr ib u tio n d u e to g r o w th N um ber 2000 Transportation inspectors.................................................................. All other related transportation workers............................................ Material moving occupations............................................................... Cleaners of vehicles and equipment................................................. Conveyor operators and tenders...................................................... Crane and tower operators................................................................ Excavating and loading machine and dragline operators.............. Hoist and winch operators................................................................. Industrial truck and tractor operators................................................ Laborers and freight, stock, and material movers, hand................ Machine feeders and offbearers........................................................ Packers and packagers, h a n d ........................................................... Pumping station operators.................................................................. Gas compressor and gas pumping station operators................... Pump operators, except wellhead pum pers.................................. Wellhead pumpers............................................................................ Refuse and recyclable material collectors....................................... Tank car, truck, and ship loaders....................................................... All other material moving workers..................................................... 2010 2000 P e rc e n t 2010 an d net r e p la c e m e n ts , 2 0 0 0 -1 0 1 25 28 0.0 0.0 3 1 1 .3 9 46 54 .0 .0 8 1 7 .9 26 4 ,8 3 3 5 ,5 1 4 3 .3 3 .3 681 14.1 2 ,1 1 8 322 382 1 8 .8 183 71 8 1 3 .3 26 55 59 5 8 .6 21 76 88 34 10 11 1 1 4 .8 9 .2 .0 .0 .1 .0 60 63 .2 .0 .0 .1 .0 8 .3 3 635 707 .4 .4 72 1 1 .3 160 2 ,0 8 4 2 ,3 7 3 1.4 1.4 289 1 3 .9 985 182 159 .1 .1 -1 2 .3 63 1,091 32 1 ,3 0 0 32 .7 .8 1 9 .3 488 7 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .0 .1 0.0 7 -22 210 0 0 1 -1 21 4 .8 10 2 4 .8 5 3 1 3 .5 8 23 1 6 .4 62 14 15 12 11 124 145 19 21 142 165 -8 .5 3 1 6 .6 75 1 Total job openings represent the sum of employment increases and net replacements. If employment change is negative, job openings due to growth are zero and total job openings equal net replacements. NOTE: Detail may not equal total or 100 percent due to rounding. clerks, general, with employment of 2.7 million, is projected to experience only average growth. Declining occupations. This section of the article focuses just on those occupations with the largest numerical job de clines, because many detailed occupations with the fastest rates o f decline are very small and, consequently, the re sulting employment declines are not very significant in terms of the total economy. (See table 5.) Fourteen of the occupa tions with the largest declines are office and administrative support, seven are production, and three are service—two, food service and one, barbers. Two are sales and two are railroad transportation; others are wholesale and retail buy ers, except farm products and farmers and ranchers. Changes in technology or business practices will reduce the demand for most of the 30 occupations. The use of computer technology will reduce demand for word processors and typists; tellers; loan interviewers and clerks; secretaries, except legal, medical, and executive; switchboard operators, including answering service; and other office and administrative support occupations. Machine feed ers and offbearers, prepress technicians and workers, electri cal and electronic equipment assemblers, and most other pro duction occupations on this list also are affected by advances in technology, such as faster machines, more automated pro78 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 cesses, and better product designs that simplify assembly. Parts salespersons; procurement clerks; order clerks; whole sale and retail buyers, except farm products; and postal ser vice mail sorters, processors, and processing machine opera tors should decline, as electronic business automates some of the functions they perform.6 Farmers and ranchers; dishwashers; railroad brake, sig nal, and switch operators; and meter readers, utilities also will decline as a result of improved technology. Farmers and ranchers also will be affected by farm consolidation. Declin ing industry employment is the major cause of projected employment declines for sewing machine operators and rail road conductors and yardmasters, while butchers and meatcutters continues to decline, as work is shifted from retail trade, where most meatcutters are employed, to food processing plants. Dining room and cafeteria attendants and bartenders’ helpers are expected to decline, as waiters and waitresses and bartenders assume more of their duties. Bar bers will probably decline because of the large number of retirements and the small number of cosmetology graduates seeking barbers’ licenses. Earnings and the most significant source of education or training differ considerably among occupations in the three groups just discussed. (See exhibit 1 for a description of the education or training categories used in this article.) O f the Table 3. Fastest growing occupations, 2000-2010 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] Employment Change Quartile rank by 2000 Occupation 2000 2010 Number Percent 100 63 176 672 689 516 380 490 284 187 92 25 70 258 258 187 418 89 147 31 54 53 49 48 47 46 45 45 45 40 Computer software engineers, applications.................... Computer support specialists................................. Computer software engineers, systems software............ Network and computer systems administrators.............. Network systems and data communications analysts...... Desktop publishers................................. Database administrators................................ Personal and home care aides.......................... Computer systems analysts................................ Medical assistants......................................... 380 506 317 229 119 38 106 414 431 329 Social and human service assistants....................... Physician assistants........................................... Medical records and health information technicians......... Computer and information systems managers................ Home health aides..................................... Physical therapist aides..................................... Occupational therapist aides.......................... Physical therapist assistants.................................... Audiologists....................................... Fitness trainers and aerobics instructors...................... 271 58 136 313 615 36 9 44 13 158 222 64 Computer and information scientists, research............... Veterinary assistants and laboratory animal caretakers.... Occupational therapist assistants.............................. Veterinary technologists and technicians........................ Speech-language pathologists.............................. ....... Mental health and substance abuse social workers......... Dental assistants..................................... Dental hygienists.............................................. Special education teachers, preschool, kindergarten, and elementary school......................................... Pharmacy technicians......................................... 28 55 17 49 39 77 23 69 11 22 760 996 601 416 211 202 463 907 53 12 64 19 20 6 88 122 83 247 147 116 339 201 7 19 34 33 92 54 234 190 320 259 69 1 The quartile rankings of Occupational Employment Statistics annual earnings data are presented in the following categories: 1=very high ($39,700 and over), 2=high ($25,760 to $39,660), 3=low ($18,500 to $25,760), and 4=very low (up to $18,490). The 30 fastest growing occupations, 21 generally require a postsecondary degree or other award, compared with 11 of those with the largest numerical job growth and 2 of those with the largest numerical declines. O f the fastest growing occupations, 13 are concentrated in the first earnings quartile and 8 in the third earnings quartile; of those with the largest numeric increases, 10 are in the first and 11 in the fourth quartile; and o f the largest declines, 10 are in the second and 14 are in the third quartile. Total job openings In addition to occupational employment growth, another as pect of the demand for workers is the need to replace work ers who leave their jobs to enter other occupations, retire, or leave the labor force for other reasons. Job openings result https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 66 150 291 17 4 86 97 90 82 77 67 66 62 60 57 median annual earningsi 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 4 1 3 3 1 3 1 4 3 3 2 1 3 1 40 40 40 39 39 39 37 37 1 2 2 1 37 36 3 4 2 3 1 Most significant source of education or training Bachelor’s degree Associate degree Bachelor’s degree Bachelor’s degree Bachelor’s degree Postsecondary vocational award Bachelor’s degree Short-term on-the-job training Bachelor’s degree Moderate-term on-the-job training Moderate-term on-the-job training Bachelor’s degree Associate degree Bachelor’s or higher degree, plus work experience Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Associate degree Master’s degree Postsecondary vocational award Doctoral degree Short-term on-the-job training Associate degree Associate degree Master’s degree Master’s degree Moderate-term on-the-job training Associate degree Bachelor’s degree Moderate-term on-the-job training rankings were based on quartiles using one-fourth of total employment to define each quartile. Earnings are for wage and salary workers. ing from replacement needs are very important, because, in most occupations, they exceed those that are the result of employment growth. Even occupations that are projected to decline provide some job openings, for example, farmers and ranchers and wholesale and retail buyers, except farm prod ucts. (See table 2, pp. 64-78.) The measure of replacement needs is complex because o f the continuous movement o f workers into and out of occupations. The replacement needs cited in this article are based on the net change in employment (entrants mi nus separations) in each age cohort over the projection period. Although this measure understates the total number of job openings in an occupation, it best represents the job openings for new labor force entrants over the projection period.7 Over the 2000-10 period, more job openings are expected Monthly Labor Review November 2001 79 Occupational Employment Table 4. Occupations with the largest job growth, 2000-2010 ______ [Numbers in thousands of jobs] Employment Change Quartile rank by 2000 Occupation 2000 Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food......................................................... Customer service representatives................................ Registered nurses...................................................... Retail salespersons.................................................... Computer support specialists....................................... Cashiers, except gaming............................................ Office clerks, general.................................................. Security guards......................................................... Computer software engineers, applications.................... Waiters and waitresses............................................... 2010 Percent 30 32 26 4 3 12 4 97 14 16 35 4 3 4 2,206 1,946 2,194 4,109 . 506 3,325 2,705 1,106 380 1,983 2,879 2,577 2,755 4,619 996 3,799 3,135 1,497 760 2,347 673 631 561 510 490 474 430 391 380 364 General and operations managers............................... Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer.......................... Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants....................... Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners......................................................... Postsecondary teachers............................................. Teacher assistants..................................................... Home health aides..................................................... Laborers and freight, stxk, and material movers, hand.... Computer software engineers, systems software............ Landscaping and groundskeeping workers.................... 2,398 1,749 1,373 2,761 2,095 1,697 363 346 323 2,348 1,344 1,262 615 2,084 317 894 2,665 1,659 1,562 907 2,373 601 1,154 Personal and home care aides..................................... Computer systems analysts......................................... Receptionists and information clerks............................. Truck drivers, light or delivery services.......................... Packers and packagers, hand...................................... Elementary school teachers, except special education.... Medical assistants...................................................... Network and computer systems administrators............... Secondary school teachers, except special and vocational education....................................................... Accountants and auditors............................................ 414 431 1,078 1,117 1,091 1,532 329 229 1,004 976 2 Short-term on-the-job training Moderate-term on-the-job training Associate degree Short-term on-the-job training Associate degree Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Bachelor’s degree Short-term on-the-job training 1 18 4 15 20 1 2 24 3 317 315 301 291 289 284 260 13 23 24 47 14 90 29 4 672 689 1,334 1,331 1,300 1,734 516 416 258 258 256 215 4 187 187 62 60 24 19 19 13 57 82 1 Short-term on-the-job training Bachelor’s degree Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Bachelor’s degree Moderate-term on-the-job training Bachelor’s degree 1,190 1,157 187 181 19 19 1 1 Bachelor’s degree Bachelor’s degree to result from replacement needs (35.8 million) than from employment growth in the economy (22.2 million). Service occupations are projected to have the largest number of total job openings, 13.5 million. Large occupations characterized by relatively low pay and limited training requirements, such as food preparation and service occupations, generate nu merous job openings due to replacement needs. Even within service occupations, however, rapidly growing healthcare support occupations should generate more openings from job growth than from replacement needs. The only major group with fewer openings from replace ment needs than from employment growth is professional and related occupations, the fastest growing. Even within professional and related occupations, however, replacement November 2001 1 Most significant source of education or training 100 1 The quartile rankings of Occupational Employment Statistics annual earnings data are presented in the following categories: 1=very high ($39,700 and over), 2=high ($25,760 to $39,660), 3=low ($18,500 to $25,760), and 4=very low (up to $18,490). The 80 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis median annual earningsi Number 210 202 1 4 4 3 1 4 1 3 3 4 1 3 Bachelor’s or higher degree, plus work experience Moderate-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Doctoral degree Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Bachelor’s degree Short-term on-the-job training rankings were based on quartiles using one-fourth of total employment to define each quartile. Earnings are for wage and salary workers. openings should exceed growth openings in the three slow est growing groups—architecture and engineering occupa tions; education, training, and library occupations; and life, physical, and social science occupations. Education or training categories and earnings While the education and training requirem ents o f the workforce continue to increase, in 2000, only 21 percent of jobs were in occupations generally requiring a bachelor’s de gree or more education. (See table 6.) However, these jobs will account for 29 percent of total job growth from 2000 to 2010. Occupations generally requiring a postsecondary vo cational award or an associate degree, which accounted for 8 Table 5. Occupations with the largest job decline, 2000-2010 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] Employment Change Quartile rank by 2000 Occupation 2000 Farmers and ranchers................................................. Order clerks.................................................... Tellers......................................................... Insurance claims and policy processing clerks................ Word processors and typists........................................ Sewing machine operators........................................ Dishwashers............................................................ Switchboard operators, including answering service........ Loan interviewers and clerks....................................... Computer operators.................................................... Dining room and cafeteria attendants and bartender helpers........................................................... Electrical and electronic equipment assemblers.............. Machine feeders and offbearers................................... Telephone operators.............................................. Secretaries, except legal, medical, and executive........... Prepress technicians and workers................................ Office machine operators, except computer................... Cutting, punching, and press machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic........................... Postal service mail sorters, processors, and processing machine operators........................................... Railroad brake, signal, and switch operators.................. Wholesale and retail buyers, except farm products.......... Meter readers, utilities........................................ Butchers and meat cutters............................... Parts salespersons.............................................. Inspectors, testers, sorters, samplers, and weighers........ Eligibility interviewers, government programs................. Door-to-door sales workers, news and street vendors, and related workers........................................... Procurement clerks..................................... Railroad conductors and yardmasters........................... Barbers..................................................... 2010 1,294 348 499 289 297 399 525 259 139 194 965 277 440 231 240 348 483 218 431 379 182 54 1,864 107 84 402 355 159 35 1,846 90 101 161 Percent -328 -71 -59 -58 -57 -51 -42 41 -38 -33 -25 -29 -24 -20 -12 -20 -19 -13 -8 -16 -28 -17 -7 median annual earningsi 2 3 3 2 3 4 4 3 2 2 4 3 3 Most significant source of education or training Long-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Moderate-term on-the-job training Moderate-term on-the-job training Moderate-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Moderate-term on-the-job training 68 -19 -18 -17 -16 -16 -19 2 3 Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Moderate-term on-the-job training Long-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training 372 357 -15 -4 3 Moderate-term on-the-job training 289 22 275 9 -14 -13 -5 -61 2 2 Short-term on-the-job training Work experience in a related occupation 148 49 141 260 602 117 135 36 128 248 591 106 -13 -13 -13 -9 -26 -9 -4 2 2 Bachelor’s degree Short-term on-the-job training Long-term on-the-job training Moderate-term on-the-job training Moderate-term on-the-job training Moderate-term on-the-job training 166 76 45 73 156 67 36 64 1 The quartile rankings of Occupational Employment Statistics annual earnings data are presented in the following categories: 1=very high ($39,700 and over), 2=high ($25,760 to $39,660), 3=low ($18,500 to $25,760), and 4=very low (up to $18,490). The percent o f all jobs in 2000, will account for 13 percent of the job growth over the 2000—10 period. Occupations generally requiring only work-related training, which accounted for 71 percent of all jobs in 2000, will account for 58 percent of the job growth over the 2000-10 period. (See exhibit 1 for defi nitions of categories.) All seven categories generally requiring a postsecondary award are projected to have faster-than-average employment growth over the 2000-10 period. These categories are made up mostly of professional and related occupations, projected to grow the fastest, along with a number of faster-than-average growing management, business, and financial occupa tions. All four work-related training categories are expected https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Number -22 -12 -11 -11 -10 -9 -8 -8 -6 -12 -35 -1 -2 -9 -6 -12 -19 -12 2 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 2 4 Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Work experience in a related occupation Postsecondary vocational award rankings were based on quartiles using one-fourth of total employment to define each quartile. Earnings are for wage and salary workers. to have slower growth. These categories include many slow growing or declining production, office and administrative support, and other occupations. The largest education and training category, short-term on-the job training, with 53 million workers in 2000, ac counted for 37 percent of total employment and is projected to account for 35 percent of job growth. It is the fastest grow ing of the four categories requiring work-related training, and includes large faster-than-average-growing occupations such as security guards, teacher assistants, and combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food. More than half of the 30 occupations with the largest numerical job growth fall into this category. These workers had the low- Monthly Labor Review November 2001 81 Occupational Employment Exhibit 1. Most significant so u rce of e d u c a tio n or training Occupations are classified into one of eleven categories listed below according to these principles: • An occupation is placed into the category that best describes the education or training needed by most workers to become fully qualified. Postsecondary vocational award. Some programs last only a few weeks while others may last more than a year. Programs lead to a certificate or other award but not a degree. Work-related training • Postsecondary awards, if generally needed for entry into the occupation, take precedence over work-related training even though additional skills or experience may be needed for a worker to become fully quali fied. Work experience in a related occupation. Many occu pations requiring work experience are first-line supervisors/managers of service, sales and related, pro duction, or other occupations, or are management occupations. • The length of time an average worker generally needs to become fully qualified through a combination of on-the-job training and experience is used to catego rize occupations in which a postsecondary award gen erally is not needed for entry. Long-term on-the-job training. More than 12 months of on-the-job training or combined work experience and formal classroom instruction are needed for work ers to develop the skills necessary to be fully quali fied. This category includes formal and informal ap prenticeships that may last up to 5 years. Long-term on-the-job training also includes intensive occupa tion-specific, employer-sponsored programs that workers must successfully complete. These include fire and police academies and schools for air traffic controllers and flight attendants. In other occupa tions— insurance sales and securities sales, for ex am ple-trainees take formal courses, often provided on the job site, to prepare for the required licensing exams. Individuals undergoing training generally are considered to be employed in the occupation. Also included in this category is the development of a natu ral ability— such as that possessed by musicians, ath letes, actors, and other entertainers—that must be cultivated over several years, frequently in a nonwork setting. Postsecondary awards First professional degree. Completion of the degree usually requires at least 3 years of full-time academic study beyond a bachelor’s degree. Doctoral degree. Completion of a Ph.D. or other doc toral degree usually requires at least 3 years of full time academic study beyond a bachelor’s degree. M aster’s degree. Completion of the degree usually re quires 1 or 2 years of full-time academic study be yond a bachelor’s degree. Bachelor’s or higher degree, plus work experience. Most occupations in this category are management occupations. All require experience in a related non management position for which a bachelor’s or higher degree is usually required. Bachelor’s degree. Completion of the degree gener ally requires at least 4 years, but not more than 5 years, of full-time academic study. Associate degree. Completion of the degree usually requires at least 2 years of full-time academic study. 82 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 Moderate-term on-the-job training. Skills needed to be fully qualified can be acquired during 1 to 12 months of combined on-the-job experience and in formal training. Short-term on-the-job training. Skills needed to be fully qualified can be acquired during a short demonstra tion of job duties or during 1 month or less of on-thejob experience or instruction. Table 6. Employment and total job openings, 2000-2010, and 2000 average annual earnings by education or training category [Numbers in thousands of jobs] Employment Most significant source of education or training Number Percent distribution 2000 mean annual earnings2 Number Percent distribution Percent Number Percent distribution 100.0 22,160 100.0 15.2 57,932 100.0 $33,089 20.7 1.4 21.8 1.5 18.2 23.7 23.4 12,130 691 760 634 20.9 1.1 1.0 29.3 1.7 21.6 1.0 1.0 6,484 370 353 333 56,553 91,424 52,146 43,842 5.0 5.2 13.0 1,422 4,006 6.4 18.1 19.4 22.5 2,741 7,304 12.6 69,967 48,440 8.7 4.0 4.7 2,839 1,626 1,213 12.8 7.3 5.5 24.1 32.0 18.2 5,383 2,608 2,775 9.3 4.5 4.8 35,701 41,488 31,296 69.5 6.9 12,837 57.9 5.0 4.2 14.1 34.6 12.4 10.5 7.5 11.3 14.4 40,419 3,180 3,737 8,767 24,735 69.8 5.5 6.5 15.1 42.7 25,993 40,881 33,125 29,069 19,799 2000 2010 2000 2010 Total, all occupations....................... 145,594 167,754 100.0 Bachelor’s or higher degree.................. First professional degree .................... Doctoral degree................................. Master’s degree................................. Bachelor’s or higher degree, plus work experience ............................... Bachelor’s degree.............................. 30,072 2,034 1,492 1,426 36,556 2,404 1,845 1,759 7,319 17,801 8,741 21,807 12.2 Associate degree or postsecondary vocational award....................... Associate degree............................... Postsecondary vocational award.......... 11,761 5,083 6,678 14,600 6,710 7,891 3.5 4.6 Work-related training............................ Work experience in a related occupation Long-term on-the-job training............... Moderate-term on-the-job training ........ Short-term on-the-job training.............. 103,760 10,456 12,435 27,671 53,198 116,597 11,559 13,373 30,794 60,871 71.3 7.2 8.5 19.0 36.5 8.1 1 Total job openings represent the sum of employment increases and net replacements. If employment change is negative, job openings due to growth are zero and total job openings equal net replacements. est earnings o f any education and training group in 2000— 60 percent as much as the mean for all wage and salary workers. Occupations generally requiring moderate-term on-the-job training, including medical assistants and painters, construc tion and maintenance, accounted for 28 million workers, or 19 percent of total employment in 2000, and are projected to account for 14 percent of new jobs. These workers earned 88 percent as much as the mean for all wage and salary workers in 2000. The long-term on-the-job training category is projected to grow the slowest. It accounted for 8.5 percent of total employment in 2000, but should account for only 4.2 per cent o f new jobs. It includes slow growing occupations, such as carpenters, and declining ones, such as butchers and meatcutters, and farmers and ranchers. These workers earned the mean for all workers in 2000. An additional 7.2 percent were employed in occupations requiring experience in an other occupation that generally did not require postsecondary education or training; these are projected to account for 5 percent o f new jobs. Most workers in these occupations are first-line supervisors or managers, so it is not surprising that they earned 24 percent more than the mean for all workers. The postsecondary vocational award category accounted https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Total job openings due to growth and net replacements, 2000-101 Change 1.4 8.0 18.4 36.3 1,102 938 3,123 7,673 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.1 4.7 2 Earnings are for wage and salary workers, NOTE: Detail may not equal total or 100 percent due to rounding, for 4.6 percent of total employment in 2000 and should account for 5.5 percent of new jobs. This group includes au tomobile service technicians and mechanics; licensed practi cal nurses; and hairdressers, hairstylists, and cosmetologists. They earned 95 percent as much as the mean for all workers in 2000. Occupations generally requiring an associate de gree is the fastest growing group; it includes computer sup port specialists, paralegals and legal assistants, and many fast growing health occupations. It accounted for 3.5 percent of all jobs in the base year but is expected to account for 7.3 percent of total growth. More than two-fifths of the workers in this group are registered nurses.8 The bachelor’s degree category accounted for 12 percent of all workers in 2000 and is projected to account for 18 percent of job growth. Most computer occupations are in this group. In addition, jobs in which workers generally need experience in another occupation requiring at least a bachelor’s degree before getting their current job accounted for another 5 percent of all workers in 2000 and should ac count for 6.4 percent of job growth. Almost all workers in this category were in management, business, and financial occupations. Many of the fastest growing occupations and those with the largest projected numerical increases require Monthly Labor Review November 2001 83 Occupational Employment a bachelor’s degree. Mean earnings of occupations generally requiring a bachelor’s degree were 46 percent more than the mean for all wage and salary workers and for those in occu pations generally requiring work experience plus a bachelor’s or higher degree, 111 percent more. About 3.4 percent of workers are employed in occupa tions that generally require more education than a bachelor’s degree, including those requiring a first professional degree (1.4 percent), doctoral degree (1 percent), or master’s de gree (1 percent). Together, these three categories are pro jected to account for 4.8 percent of job growth. The first professional degree category, which includes lawyers, phy sicians and surgeons, and pharmacists, had the highest aver age earnings of any group in 2000—2.8 times as much as the mean for all wage and salary workers. The doctoral degree category earned 58 percent more than the mean; most work ers in this group are postsecondary teachers. Those in the master’s degree category earned 32 percent more than the mean, not as much as occupations requiring a bachelor’s. This group includes librarians and several counseling occupations. The share of total job openings resulting from both em ployment growth and net replacement needs in each of the education and training categories differs from job openings resulting from employment growth alone. In general, occu pations requiring the least amount of education and training account for a greater share of net replacement needs— and total job openings—because workers in them have less job attachment than workers in other occupations. While occu pations requiring a postsecondary vocational award or an academic degree should generate 42 percent of jobs from growth alone, they should generate only 30 percent of total job openings. Occupations requiring work-related training should generate 58 percent of openings due to growth, but 70 percent of total openings. D Notes These projections were completed prior to the tragic events o f September 11. bls will continue to review its projections and, as the long-term eco nomic consequences o f September 11 become clearer, will incorporate these effects in subsequent releases o f the occupational outlook. (See box on page 3.) 1 Occupational projections presented in this article provide informa tion to those interested in labor market issues. They also provide the back ground for analyses o f future employment opportunities described in the forthcoming 2 0 0 2 -0 3 Occupational Outlook Handbook. The Internet ver sion o f this edition o f the Handbook , which will be accessible at http:// www.bls.gov/emp, is expected to be available in December 2001; the print version o f the 2 0 02-03 Handbook, BLS Bulletin 2540, should be available in early 2002. Job outlook information in the 2002-03 Hand book will use the projections presented in each o f the articles in this issue o f the Monthly Labor Review. For a description o f the methodology used to develop employment projections, see BLS Handbook o f Methods, Bul letin 2490 (Bureau o f Labor Statistics, April 1997), pp. 122-29. 2 Service industries include health, engineering and management, so cial, and computer and data processing services. Services industries, with businesses that supply services to a wide variety o f other businesses and to individuals, are projected to grow by 27.1 percent, overall, and account for 61.9 percent o f all new jobs over the 2 0 0 0 -1 0 period. 84 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 3 Services industries in this article include State and local government hospitals and public education. In the article on industry employment by Jay Berman (this issue, pp. 3 9 -5 6 ), workers in State and local govern ment hospitals and public education are included in the estimates o f gov ernment employment. 4 See Daniel E. Hecker, “Employment impact o f electronic business,” Monthly Labor Review, May 2001, p. 6. 5 Ibid., p. 5. 6 Ibid. 7 Net separations do not count all movements o f workers out o f an o c cupation, which is a measure termed total separations. For example, an opening caused by a worker who stops working for a period and then gets another job in his or her previous occupation would be counted in the measure o f total separations but not net separations. See the discussion on the uses o f replacement needs information developed in Occupational Projections and Training Data, Bulletin 2542 (Bureau o f Labor Statis tics, forthcoming). 8 While most nurses currently get their training in associate degree pro grams, a considerable number have a bachelor’s degree, which indicates that there is some overlapping o f educational requirements among the groups. Current Labor Statistics Notes on labor statistics ..................86 Comparative indicators 1. Labor market indicators................................................... 96 2. Annual and quarterly percent changes in compensation, prices, andproductivity....................... 97 3. Alternative measures of wages and compensation changes.................................................. 97 Labor force data 4. Employment status of the population, seasonally adjusted...................................................... 5. Selected employment indicators, seasonally adjusted...................................................... 6. Selected unemployment indicators, seasonally adjusted...................................................... 7. Duration of unemployment, seasonally adjusted...................................................... 8. Unemployed persons by reason for unemployment, seasonally adjusted...................................................... 9. Unemployment rates by sex and age, seasonally adjusted...................................................... 10. Unemployment rates by States, seasonally adjusted...................................................... 11. Employment of workers by States, seasonally adjusted...................................................... 12. Employment of workers by industry, seasonally adjusted...................................................... 13. Average weekly hours by industry, seasonally adjusted...................................................... 14. Average hourly earnings by industry, seasonally adjusted...................................................... 59 15. Average hourly earnings by industry............................... 16. Average weekly earnings by industry.............................. 17. Diffusion indexes of employment change, seasonally adjusted...................................................... 18. Annual data: Employment status of the population....... 19. Annual data: Employment levels by industry................. 20. Annual data: Average hours and earnings levels by industry.................................... 98 99 100 101 101 102 103 103 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 26. Participants in benefits plans, small firms and government............................................................119 27. Work stoppages involving 1,000 workers or more.......... 120 Price data 28. Consumer Price Index: U.S. city average, by expenditure category and commodity and service groups............... 121 29. Consumer Price Index: U.S. city average and local data, all items........................................................ 124 30. Annual data: Consumer Price Index, all items and major groups........................................................... 125 31. Producer Price Indexes by stage of processing..................126 32. Producer Price Indexes for the net output of major industry groups............................................................. 127 33. Annual data: Producer Price Indexes by stage of processing................................................... 128 34. U.S. export price indexes by Standard International Trade Classification...................................................... 129 35. U.S. import price indexes by Standard International Trade Classification...................................................... 130 36. U.S. export price indexes by end-use category................ 131 37. U.S. import price indexes by end-use category................ 132 38. U.S.international price indexes for selected categories of services..................................................... 132 104 106 107 108 109 110 I ll I ll 112 Productivity data 39. Indexes of productivity, hourly compensation, and unit costs, data seasonally adjusted........................133 40. Annual indexes of multifactor productivity...................... 134 41. Annual indexes of productivity, hourly compensation, unit costs, and prices.................................................... 135 42. Annual indexes of output per hour for selected industries....................................................................... 136 International comparisons data 43. Unemployment rates in nine countries, data seasonally adjusted................................................ 139 44. Annual data: Employment status of the civilian working-age population, 10 countries............................140 45. Annual indexes of productivity and related measures, 12 countries................................................................... 141 Labor compensation and collective bargaining data 21. Employment Cost Index, compensation, by occupation and industry group............................... 22. Employment Cost Index, wages and salaries, by occupation and industry group............................... 23. Employment Cost Index, benefits, private industry workers, by occupation and industry group................ 24. Employment Cost Index, private nonfarm workers, by bargaining status, region, and area siz e ................... 25. Participants in benefit plans, medium and large firms..... Labor compensation and collective bargaining data—continued 113 115 116 117 118 Injury and illness data 46. Annual data: Occupational injury and illness incidence rates..............................................................142 47. Fatal occupational injuries by event or exposure.......................................................................144 Monthly Labor Review November 2001 85 Notes on Current Labor Statistics This section of the R eview presents the prin cipal statistical series collected and calcu lated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics: series on labor force; employment; unem ployment; labor compensation; consumer, producer, and international prices; produc tivity; international comparisons; and injury and illness statistics. In the notes that follow, the data in each group of tables are briefly described; key definitions are given; notes on the data are set forth; and sources of addi tional information are cited. G e n e ra l notes The following notes apply to several tables in this section: Seasonal adjustment. Certain monthly and quarterly data are adjusted to eliminate the effect on the data of such factors as cli matic conditions, industry production sched ules, opening and closing of schools, holi day buying periods, and vacation practices, which might prevent short-term evaluation of the statistical series. Tables containing data that have been adjusted are identified as “seasonally adjusted.” (All other data are not seasonally adjusted.) Seasonal effects are es timated on the basis of past experience. When new seasonal factors are computed each year, revisions may affect seasonally adjusted data for several preceding years. Seasonally adjusted data appear in tables 1-14,16-17,39, and 43. Seasonally adjusted labor force data in tables 1 and 4-9 were re vised in the February 2001 issue of the R e view . Seasonally adjusted establishment sur vey data shown in tables 1, 12-14 and 1617 were revised in the July 2000 R eview and reflect the experience through March 2000. A brief explanation of the seasonal adjust ment methodology appears in “Notes on the data.” Revisions in the productivity data in table 45 are usually introduced in the September issue. Seasonally adjusted indexes and per cent changes from month-to-month and quarter-to-quarter are published for numer ous Consumer and Producer Price Index se ries. However, seasonally adjusted indexes are not published for the U.S. average AllItems CPI. Only seasonally adjusted percent changes are available for this series. Adjustments for price changes. Some data—such as the “real” earnings shown in table 14—are adjusted to eliminate the ef fect of changes in price. These adjustments are made by dividing current-dollar values by the Consumer Price Index or the appro priate component of the index, then multi plying by 100. For example, given a current hourly wage rate of $3 and a current price 86 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis index number of 150, where 1982 = 100, the hourly rate expressed in 1982 dollars is $2 ($3/150 x 100 = $2). The $2 (or any other resulting values) are described as “real,” “constant,” or “1982” dollars. tional comparisons data, see In tern a tio n a l C om parisons o f U nem ploym ent, BLS Bulle tin 1979. Detailed data on the occupational injury and illness series are published in O ccupa Sources of information tional Injuries a n d Illnesses in the U nited States, by Industry, a BLS annual bulletin. Finally, the M o n th ly L a b o r R eview car Data that supplement the tables in this sec tion are published by the Bureau in a variety of sources. Definitions of each series and notes on the data are contained in later sec tions of these Notes describing each set of data. For detailed descriptions of each data series, see BLS H andbook o f M ethods, Bul letin 2490. Users also may wish to consult M ajor Program s o f the B ureau o f L abor Sta tistics, Report 919. News releases provide the latest statistical information published by the Bureau; the major recurring releases are published according to the schedule appear ing on the back cover of this issue. More information about labor force, em ployment, and unemployment data and the household and establishment surveys under lying the data are available in the Bureau’s monthly publication, E m ploym ent a n d E arn ings. Historical unadjusted and seasonally adjusted data from the household survey are available on the Internet: http://stats.bls.gov/cpshome.htm Historically comparable unadjusted and sea sonally adjusted data from the establishment survey also are available on the Internet: http://stats.bls.gov/ceshome.htm Additional information on labor force data for areas below the national level are pro vided in the BLS annual report, G eographic P rofile o f E m ploym ent a n d U nem ploym ent. For a comprehensive discussion of the Employment Cost Index, see E m ploym ent C ost Indexes a n d Levels, 1975-95, BLS Bul letin 2466. The most recent data from the Employee Benefits Survey appear in the fol lowing Bureau of Labor Statistics bulletins: E m p lo yee B e n e fits in M ed iu m a n d L arge Firm s; E m ployee B enefits in S m a ll P rivate E stablishm ents; and E m ployee B en efits in State a n d L o ca l G overnm ents. More detailed data on consumer and pro ducer prices are published in the monthly periodicals, The CPI D e ta ile d R e p o rt and P roducer Price Indexes. For an overview of the 1998 revision of the CPI, see the Decem ber 1996 issue of the M onthly L abor Review . Additional data on international prices ap pear in monthly news releases. Listings of industries for which produc tivity indexes are available may be found on the Internet: http://stats.bls.gov/iprhome.htm For additional information on interna November 2001 ries analytical articles on annual and longer term developments in labor force, employ ment, and unemployment; employee com pensation and collective bargaining; prices; productivity; international comparisons; and injury and illness data. Symbols n.e.c. = not elsewhere classified, n.e.s. = not elsewhere specified. p = preliminary. To increase the time liness of some series, preliminary figures are issued based on repre sentative but incomplete returns, r = revised. Generally, this revision reflects the availability of later data, but also may reflect other ad justments. Comparative Indicators (Tables 1-3) Comparative indicators tables provide an overview and comparison of major bls sta tistical series. Consequently, although many of the included series are available monthly, all measures in these comparative tables are presented quarterly and annually. Labor market indicators include em ployment measures from two major surveys and information on rates of change in com pensation provided by the Employment Cost Index (ECI) program. The labor force partici pation rate, the employment-to-population ratio, and unemployment rates for major de mographic groups based on the Current Population (“household”) Survey are pre sented, while measures of employment and average weekly hours by major industry sec tor are given using nonfarm payroll data. The Employment Cost Index (compensation), by major sector and by bargaining status, is cho sen from a variety of bls compensation and wage measures because it provides a com prehensive measure of employer costs for hiring labor, not just outlays for wages, and it is not affected by employment shifts among occupations and industries. Data on changes in compensation, prices, and productivity are presented in table 2. Measures of rates of change of compensa tion and wages from the Employment Cost Index program are provided for all civil ian nonfarm workers (excluding Federal and household workers) and for all private nonfarm workers. Measures of changes in consumer prices for all urban consumers; producer prices by stage of processing; overall prices by stage of processing; and overall export and import price indexes are given. Measures of productivity (output per hour of all persons) are provided for major sectors. Alternative measures of wage and com pensation rates of change, which reflect the overall trend in labor costs, are summarized in table 3. Differences in concepts and scope, related to the specific purposes of the series, contribute to the variation in changes among the individual measures. Notes on the data Definitions of each series and notes on the data are contained in later sections of these notes describing each set of data. Employment and Unemployment Data (Tables 1; 4-20) Household survey data Description of the series E mploym ent data in this section are ob tained from the Current Population Survey, a program of personal interviews conducted monthly by the Bureau of the Census for the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The sample con sists of about 60,000 households selected to represent the U.S. population 16 years of age and older. Households are interviewed on a rotating basis, so that three-fourths of the sample is the same for any 2 consecutive months. Definitions Employed persons include (1) all those who worked for pay any time during the week which includes the 12th day of the month or who worked unpaid for 15 hours or more in a family-operated enterprise and (2) those who were temporarily absent from their regu lar jobs because of illness, vacation, indus trial dispute, or similar reasons. A person working at more than one job is counted only in the job at which he or she worked the greatest number of hours. Unemployed persons are those who did not work during the survey week, but were available for work except for temporary ill ness and had looked for jobs within the pre https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ceding 4 weeks. Persons who did not look for work because they were on layoff are also counted among the unemployed. The unemployment rate represents the num ber unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force. The civilian labor force consists of all employed or unemployed persons in the civilian noninstitutional population. Persons not in the labor force are those not classified as employed or unemployed. This group includes discouraged workers, defined as persons who want and are available for ajob and who have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months (or since the end of their last job if they held one within the past 12 months), but are not currently looking, because they believe there are no jobs available or there are none for which they would qualify. The civilian noninstitu tional population comprises all persons 16 years of age and older who are not inmates of penal or mental institutions, sanitariums, or homes for the aged, infirm, or needy. The civilian labor force participation rate is the proportion of the civilian noninstitutional population that is in the labor force. The employment-population ratio is employ ment as a percent of the civilian nonin stitutional population. Notes on the data From time to time, and especially after a decennial census, adjustments are made in the Current Population Survey figures to correct for estimating errors during the intercensal years. These adjustments affect the comparability of historical data. A de scription of these adjustments and their ef fect on the various data series appears in the Explanatory Notes of E m p lo y m e n t a n d E arnings. Labor force data in tables 1 and 4-9 are seasonally adjusted. Since January 1980, national labor force data have been season ally adjusted with a procedure called X -ll a rim a which was developed at Statistics Canada as an extension of the standard X11 method previously used by b l s . A de tailed description of the procedure appears in the X -ll a r i m a S e a s o n a l A d ju s tm e n t M ethod, by Estela Bee Dagum (Statistics Canada, Catalogue No. 12-564E, January 1983). At the beginning of each calendar year, historical seasonally adjusted data usually are revised, and projected seasonal adjust ment factors are calculated for use during the January-June period. The historical sea sonally adjusted data usually are revised for only the most recent 5 years. In July, new seasonal adjustment factors, which incorpo rate the experience through June, are pro duced for the July-December period, but no revisions are made in the historical data. F or a d d it io n a l inform atio n on na tional household survey data, contact the Division of Labor Force Statistics: (202) 691-6378. Establishment survey d ata Description of the series E mployment , h o urs , a n d earning s data in this section are compiled from payroll records reported monthly on a voluntary ba sis to the Bureau of Labor Statistics and its cooperating State agencies by about 300,000 establishments representing all industries except agriculture. Industries are classified in accordance with the 1987 S ta n d a rd In d ustrial C lassification (SIC) M anual. In most industries, the sampling probabilities are based on the size of the establishment; most large establishments are therefore in the sample. (An establishment is not necessar ily a firm; it may be a branch plant, for ex ample, or warehouse.) Self-employed per sons and others not on a regular civilian payroll are outside the scope of the sur vey because they are excluded from estab lishment records. This largely accounts for the difference in employment figures be tween the household and establishment surveys. Definitions An establishment is an economic unit which produces goods or services (such as a fac tory or store) at a single location and is en gaged in one type of economic activity. Employed persons are all persons who received pay (including holiday and sick pay) for any part of the payroll period in cluding the 12th day of the month. Per sons holding more than one job (about 5 percent of all persons in the labor force) are counted in each establishment which reports them. Production workers in manufacturing include working supervisors and nonsupervisory workers closely associated with pro duction operations. Those workers men tioned in tables 11-16 include production workers in manufacturing and mining; con struction workers in construction; and nonsupervisory workers in the following in dustries: transportation and public utilities; wholesale and retail trade; finance, insur ance, and real estate; and services. These groups account for about four-fifths of the total employment on private nonagricultural payrolls. Earnings are the payments production or nonsupervisory workers receive during the survey period, including premium pay Monthly Labor Review November 2001 87 Current Labor Statistics for overtime or late-shift work but exclud ing irregular bonuses and other special payments. Real earnings are earnings adjusted to reflect the effects of changes in consumer prices. The deflator for this series is derived from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPi-W). Hours represent the average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory work ers for which pay was received, and are dif ferent from standard or scheduled hours. Overtime hours represent the portion of av erage weekly hours which was in excess of regular hours and for which overtime premi ums were paid. The Diffusion Index represents the percent of industries in which employment was rising over the indicated period, plus one-half of the industries with unchanged employment; 50 percent indicates an equal balance between industries with increasing and decreasing employment. In line with Bu reau practice, data for the 1-, 3-, and 6-month spans are seasonally adjusted, while those for the 12-month span are unadjusted. Data are centered within the span. Table 17 pro vides an index on private nonfarm employ ment based on 356 industries, and a manu facturing index based on 139 industries. These indexes are useful for measuring the dispersion of economic gains or losses and are also economic indicators. Notes on the data Establishment survey data are annually ad justed to comprehensive counts of employ ment (called “benchmarks”). The latest ad justment, which incorporated March 1999 benchmarks, was made with the release of May 2000 data, published in the July 2000 issue of the R eview . Coincident with the benchmark adjustment, historical seasonally adjusted data were revised to reflect updated seasonal factors. Unadjusted data from April 1999 forward and seasonally adjusted data from January 1996 forward are subject to revision in future benchmarks. In addition to the routine benchmark revi sions and updated seasonal factors introduced with the release of the May 2000 data, all esti mates for the wholesale trade division from April 1998 forward were revised to incorpo rate a new sample design. This represented the first major industry division to convert to a probability-based sample under a 4-year phase-in plan for the establishment survey sample redesign project. For additional infor mation, see the the June 2000 issue of Em ploy m ent a n d Earnings. Revisions in State data (table 11) oc curred with the publication of January 2000 data. Beginning in June 1996, the bls uses the X-12 a rim a methodology to seasonally adMonthly Labor Review Digitized for88 FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis just establishment survey data. This proce dure, developed by the Bureau of the Cen sus, controls for the effect of varying sur vey intervals (also known as the 4- versus 5-week effect), thereby providing improved measurement of over-the-month changes and underlying economic trends. Revisions of data, usually for the most recent 5-year pe riod, are made once a year coincident with the benchmark revisions. In the establishment survey, estimates for the most recent 2 months are based on incomplete returns and are published as pre liminary in the tables ( 12-17 in the R eview ). When all returns have been received, the es timates are revised and published as “final” (prior to any benchmark revisions) in the third month of their appearance. Thus, De cember data are published as preliminary in January and February and as final in March. For the same reasons, quarterly establish ment data (table 1) are preliminary for the first 2 months of publication and final in the third month. Thus, fourth-quarter data are published as preliminary in January and February and as final in March. F or ADDITIONAL INFORMATION on estab lishment survey data, contact the Division of Monthly Industry Employment Statis tics: (202) 691-6555. Unemploym ent d ata by State Description of the series Data presented in this section are obtained from the Focal Area Unemployment Statis tics (LAUS) program, which is conducted in cooperation with State employment secu rity agencies. Monthly estimates of the labor force, employment, and unemployment for States and sub-State areas are a key indicator of lo cal economic conditions, and form the basis for determining the eligibility of an area for benefits under Federal economic assistance programs such as the Job Training Partner ship Act. Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates are presented in table 10. Insofar as possible, the concepts and definitions under lying these data are those used in the national estimates obtained from the cps . Notes on the data Data refer to State of residence. Monthly data for all States and the District of Columbia are derived using standardized procedures established by b l s . Once a year, estimates are revised to new population controls, usually with publication of January estimates, and benchmarked to annual average cps levels. F or ADDITIONAL information on data in this series, call (202) 691-6392 (table 10) or November 2001 (202) 691-6559 (table 11). Compensation and Wage Data (Tables 1-3; 21-27) C ompensation and wage data are gathered by the Bureau from business establishments, State and local governments, labor unions, collective bargaining agreements on file with the Bureau, and secondary sources. Employment Cost Index Description of the series The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a quar terly measure of the rate of change in com pensation per hour worked and includes wages, salaries, and employer costs of em ployee benefits. It uses a fixed market basket of labor—similar in concept to the Consumer Price Index’s fixed market basket of goods and services—to measure change over time in employer costs of employing labor. Statistical series on total compensation costs, on wages and salaries, and on benefit costs are available for private nonfarm work ers excluding proprietors, the self-employed, and household workers. The total compensa tion costs and wages and salaries series are also available for State and local government workers and for the civilian nonfarm economy, which consists of private industry and State and local government workers combined. Fed eral workers are excluded. The Employment Cost Index probability sample consists of about 4,400 private non farm establishments providing about 23,000 occupational observations and 1,000 State and local government establishments provid ing 6,000 occupational observations selected to represent total employment in each sector. On average, each reporting unit provides wage and compensation information on five well-specified occupations. Data are col lected each quarter for the pay period includ ing the 12th day of March, June, September, and December. Beginning with June 1986 data, fixed employment weights from the 1980 Census of Population are used each quarter to calculate the civilian and private indexes and the index for State and local govern ments. (Prior to June 1986, the employment weights are from the 1970 Census of Popu lation.) These fixed weights, also used to derive all of the industry and occupation series indexes, ensure that changes in these indexes reflect only changes in compensa tion, not employment shifts among indus tries or occupations with different levels of wages and compensation. For the bargaining status, region, and metropolitan/non-metropolitan area series, however, employment data by industry and occupation are not available from the census. Instead, the 1980 employment weights are reallocated within these series each quarter based on the cur rent sample. Therefore, these indexes are not strictly comparable to those for the aggre gate, industry, and occupation series. Definitions Total compensation costs include wages, salaries, and the employer’s costs for em ployee benefits. Wages and salaries consist of earnings before payroll deductions, including produc tion bonuses, incentive earnings, commis sions, and cost-of-living adjustments. Benefits include the cost to employers for paid leave, supplemental pay (includ ing nonproduction bonuses), insurance, retire ment and savings plans, and legally required benefits (such as Social Security, workers’ compensation, and unemployment insurance). Excluded from wages and salaries and em ployee benefits are such items as payment-inkind, free room and board, and tips. Notes on the data The Employment Cost Index for changes in wages and salaries in the private nonfarm economy was published beginning in 1975. Changes in total compensation cost—wages and salaries and benefits combined—were published beginning in 1980. The series of changes in wages and salaries and for total compensation in the State and local govern ment sector and in the civilian nonfarm economy (excluding Federal employees) were published beginning in 1981. Histori cal indexes (June 1981=100) are available on the Internet: http://stats.bls.gov/ecthome.htm F or a d d it io n a l inform atio n on the Employment Cost Index, contact the Office of Compensation Levels and Trends: (202) 691-6199. Employee Benefits Survey Description of the series Employee benefits data are obtained from the Employee Benefits Survey, an annual survey of the incidence and provisions of selected benefits provided by employers. The survey collects data from a sample of approximately 9,000 private sector and State and local government establishments. The data are presented as a percentage of em ployees who participate in a certain benefit, or https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis as an average benefit provision (for example, the average number of paid holidays provided to employees per year). Selected data from the survey are presented in table 25 for medium and large private establishments and in table 26 for small private establishments and State and local government. The survey covers paid leave benefits such as holidays and vacations, and personal, funeral, jury duty, military, family, and sick leave; short-term disability, long-term dis ability, and life insurance; medical, dental, and vision care plans; defined benefit and defined contribution plans; flexible benefits plans; reimbursement accounts; and unpaid family leave. Also, data are tabulated on the inci dence of several other benefits, such as severance pay, child-care assistance, well ness programs, and employee assistance programs. Definitions Employer-provided benefits are benefits that are financed either wholly or partly by the employer. They may be sponsored by a union or other third party, as long as there is some employer financing. However, some benefits that are fully paid for by the em ployee also are included. For example, long term care insurance and postretirement life insurance paid entirely by the employee are included because the guarantee of insurabil ity and availability at group premium rates are considered a benefit. Participants are workers who are covered by a benefit, whether or not they use that benefit. If the benefit plan is financed wholly by employers and requires employees to complete a minimum length of service for eligibility, the workers are considered participants whether or not they have met the requirement. If workers are required to contribute towards the cost of a plan, they are considered participants only if they elect the plan and agree to make the required contributions. Defined benefit pension plans use prede termined formulas to calculate a retirement benefit (if any), and obligate the employer to provide those benefits. Benefits are generally based on salary, years of service, or both. Defined contribution plans generally specify the level of employer and employee contributions to a plan, but not the formula for determining eventual benefits. Instead, individual accounts are set up for partici pants, and benefits are based on amounts credited to these accounts. Tax-deferred savings plans are a type of defined contribution plan that allow par ticipants to contribute a portion of their sal ary to an employer-sponsored plan and defer income taxes until withdrawal. Flexible benefit plans allow employees to choose among several benefits, such as life insurance, medical care, and vacation days, and among several levels of coverage within a given benefit. Notes on the data Surveys of employees in medium and large establishments conducted over the 1979-86 period included establishments that employed at least 50, 100, or 250 workers, depending on the industry (most service industries were excluded). The survey conducted in 1987 covered only State and local governments with 50 or more employees. The surveys conducted in 1988 and 1989 included medium and large establishments with 100 workers or more in private industries. All surveys conducted over the 1979-89 period excluded establishments in Alaska and Hawaii, as well as part-time employees. Beginning in 1990, surveys of State and local governments and small private establishments were conducted in evennumbered years, and surveys of medium and large establishments were conducted in oddnumbered years. The small establishment survey includes all private nonfarm establishments with fewer than 100 workers, while the State and local government survey includes all governments, regardless of the number of workers. All three surveys include full- and part-time workers, and workers in all 50 States and the District of Columbia. F or a d d it io n a l inform atio n on the Employee Benefits Survey, contact the Of fice of Compensation Levels and Trends on the Internet: http://stats.bls.gov/ebshome.htm Work stoppages Description of the series Data on work stoppages measure the num ber and duration of major strikes or lockouts (involving 1,000 workers or more) occurring during the month (or year), the number of workers involved, and the amount of work time lost because of stoppage. These data are presented in table 27. Data are largely from a variety of pub lished sources and cover only establish ments directly involved in a stoppage. They do not measure the indirect or secondary effect of stoppages on other establishments whose employees are idle owing to material shortages or lack of service. Definitions Number of stoppages: The number of strikes and lockouts involving 1,000 work ers or more and lasting a full shift or longer. Workers involved: The number of Monthly Labor Review November 2001 89 Current Labor Statistics workers directly involved in the stoppage. Number of days idle: The aggregate number of workdays lost by workers in volved in the stoppages. Days of idleness as a percent of estimated working time: Aggregate workdays lost as a percent of the aggregate number of standard workdays in the period multiplied by total employment in the period. Notes on the data This series is not comparable with the one terminated in 1981 that covered strikes in volving six workers or more. F or a dd itio na l information on work stoppages data, contact the Office of Com pensation and Working Conditions: (202) 691-6282, or the Internet: http://stats.bIs.gov/cbahome.htm Price Data Notes on the data (Tables 2; 28-38) data are gathered by the Bureau of Labor Statistics from retail and pri mary markets in the United States. Price indexes are given in relation to a base pe riod— 1982 = 100 for many Producer Price Indexes, 1982-84 = 100 for many Con sumer Price Indexes (unless otherwise noted), and 1990 = 100 for International Price Indexes. P rice Consum er Price indexes Description of the series The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a mea sure of the average change in the prices paid by urban consumers for a fixed market bas ket of goods and services. The CPI is calcu lated monthly for two population groups, one consisting only of urban households whose primary source of income is derived from the employment of wage earners and clerical workers, and the other consisting of all ur ban households. The wage earner index (CPIW) is a continuation of the historic index that was introduced well over a half-century ago for use in wage negotiations. As new uses were developed for the CPI in recent years, the need for a broader and more representa tive index became apparent. The all-urban consumer index (CPI-U), introduced in 1978, is representative of the 1993-95 buying hab its of about 87 percent of the noninstitutional population of the United States at that time, compared with 32 percent represented in the CPi-w. In addition to wage earners and cleri cal workers, the CPi-u covers professional, managerial, and technical workers, the selfemployed, short-term workers, the unem ployed, retirees, and others not in the labor force. 90 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The CPI is based on prices of food, cloth ing, shelter, fuel, drugs, transportation fares, doctors’ and dentists’ fees, and other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living. The quantity and quality of these items are kept essentially unchanged between major revisions so that only price changes will be measured. All taxes directly associ ated with the purchase and use of items are included in the index. Data collected from more than 23,000 re tail establishments and 5,800 housing units in 87 urban areas across the country are used to develop the “U.S. city average.” Separate estimates for 14 major urban centers are pre sented in table 29. The areas listed are as in dicated in footnote 1 to the table. The area indexes measure only the average change in prices for each area since the base period, and do not indicate differences in the level of prices among cities. In January 1983, the Bureau changed the way in which homeownership costs are meaured for the cpi-u . A rental equivalence method replaced the asset-price approach to homeownership costs for that series. In January 1985, the same change was made in the cpi-w . The central purpose of the change was to separate shelter costs from the investment component of home-owner ship so that the index would reflect only the cost of shelter services provided by owneroccupied homes. An updated cpi-u and CPIw were introduced with release of the Janu ary 1987 and January 1998 data. F or a d d it io n a l inform ation on con sumer prices, contact the Division of Con sumer Prices and Price Indexes: (202) 691-7000. Producer Price Indexes Description of the series Producer Price Indexes (ppi) measure av erage changes in prices received by domes tic producers of commodities in all stages of processing. The sample used for calcu lating these indexes currently contains about 3,200 commodities and about 80,000 quo tations per month, selected to represent the movement of prices of all commodities pro duced in the manufacturing; agriculture, for estry, and fishing; mining; and gas and elec tricity and public utilities sectors. The stageof-processing structure of ppi organizes products by class of buyer and degree of fabrication (that is, finished goods, interme diate goods, and crude materials). The tradi tional commodity structure of ppi organizes products by similarity of end use or mate rial composition. The industry and product structure of ppi organizes data in November 2001 accordance with the Standard Industrial Clas sification (SIC) and the product code exten sion of the sic developed by the U.S. Bu reau of the Census. To the extent possible, prices used in calculating Producer Price Indexes apply to the first significant commercial transac tion in the United States from the produc tion or central marketing point. Price data are generally collected monthly, primarily by mail questionnaire. Most prices are obtained directly from producing companies on a voluntary and confidential basis. Prices generally are reported for the Tuesday of the week containing the 13th day of the month. Since January 1992, price changes for the various commodities have been averaged together with implicit quantity weights representing their importance in the total net selling value of all commodities as of 1987. The detailed data are aggregated to obtain indexes for stage-of-processing groupings, commodity groupings, durability-of-product groupings, and a number of special composite groups. All Producer Price Index data are subject to revision 4 months after original publication. F or a d d it io n a l inform atio n on pro ducer prices, contact the Division of In dustrial Prices and Price Indexes: (202) 691-7705. international Price Indexes Description of the series The International Price Program produces monthly and quarterly export and import price indexes for nonmilitary goods traded between the United States and the rest of the world. The export price index provides a measure of price change for all products sold by U.S. residents to foreign buyers. (“Resi dents” is defined as in the national income accounts; it includes corporations, busi nesses, and individuals, but does not require the organizations to be U.S. owned nor the individuals to have U.S. citizenship.) The import price index provides a measure of price change for goods purchased from other countries by U.S. residents. The product universe for both the import and export indexes includes raw materials, agricultural products, semifinished manufac tures, and finished manufactures, including both capital and consumer goods. Price data for these items are collected primarily by mail questionnaire. In nearly all cases, the data are collected directly from the exporter or importer, although in a few cases, prices are obtained from other sources. To the extent possible, the data gathered refer to prices at the U.S. border for exports and at either the foreign border or the U.S. border for imports. For nearly all products, the prices refer to transactions completed dur ing the first week of the month. Survey re spondents are asked to indicate all discounts, allowances, and rebates applicable to the re ported prices, so that the price used in the calculation of the indexes is the actual price for which the product was bought or sold. In addition to general indexes of prices for U.S. exports and imports, indexes are also published for detailed product categories of exports and imports. These categories are defined according to the five-digit level of detail for the Bureau of Economic Analysis End-use Classification (SiTC), and the four digit level of detail for the Harmonized System. Aggregate import indexes by coun try or region of origin are also available. publishes indexes for selected catego ries o f internationally traded services, calcu lated on an international basis and on a balance-of-paym ents basis. bls Notes on the data The export and import price indexes are weighted indexes of the Laspeyres type. Price relatives are assigned equal importance within each harmonized group and are then aggregated to the higher level. The values as signed to each weight category are based on trade value figures compiled by the Bureau of the Census. The trade weights currently used to compute both indexes relate to 1995. Because a price index depends on the same items being priced from period to period, it is necessary to recognize when a product’s speci fications or terms of transaction have been modified. For this reason, the Bureau’s ques tionnaire requests detailed descriptions of the physical and functional characteristics of the products being priced, as well as information on the number of units bought or sold, dis counts, credit terms, packaging, class of buyer or seller, and so forth. When there are changes in either the specifications or terms of trans action of a product, the dollar value of each change is deleted from the total price change to obtain the “pure” change. Once this value is determined, a linking procedure is em ployed which allows for the continued repric ing of the item. For the export price indexes, the preferred pricing is f.a.s. (free alongside ship) U.S. port of exportation. When firms report export prices f.o.b. (free on board), production point information is collected which enables the Bureau to calculate a shipment cost to the port of exportation. An attempt is made to collect two prices for imports. The first is the import price f.o.b. at the foreign port of exportation, which is consistent with the basis for valua tion of imports in the national accounts. The second is the import price c.i.f.(costs, insur ance, and freight) at the U.S. port of importa tion, which also includes the other costs as- https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis sociated with bringing the product to the U.S. border. It does not, however, include duty charges. For a given product, only one price basis series is used in the construction of an index. F or additional information on inter national prices, contact the Division of Inter national Prices: (202) 691-7155. Productivity Data (Tables 2; 39-42) Business sector and major sectors Description of the series The productivity measures relate real output to real input. As such, they encompass a fam ily of measures which include single-factor input measures, such as output per hour, out put per unit of labor input, or output per unit of capital input, as well as measures of mul tifactor productivity (output per unit of com bined labor and capital inputs). The Bureau indexes show the change in output relative to changes in the various inputs. The mea sures cover the business, nonfarm business, manufacturing, and nonfinancial corporate sectors. Corresponding indexes of hourly com pensation, unit labor costs, unit nonlabor payments, and prices are also provided. Definitions Output per hour of all persons (labor pro ductivity) is the quantity of goods and ser vices produced per hour of labor input. Out put per unit of capital services (capital pro ductivity) is the quantity of goods and ser vices produced per unit of capital services input. Multifactor productivity is the quan tity of goods and services produced per com bined inputs. For private business and pri vate nonfarm business, inputs include labor and capital units. For manufacturing, in puts include labor, capital, energy, non-en ergy materials, and purchased business ser vices. Compensation per hour is total compen sation divided by hours at work. Total com pensation equals the wages and salaries of employees plus employers’ contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans, plus an estimate of these payments for the self-employed (except for nonfinancial cor porations in which there are no self-em ployed). Real compensation per hour is compensation per hour deflated by the change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers. Unit labor costs are the labor compen sation costs expended in the production of a unit of output and are derived by dividing compensation by output. Unit nonlabor payments include profits, depreciation, interest, and indirect taxes per unit of out put. They are computed by subtracting compensation of all persons from currentdollar value of output and dividing by out put. Unit nonlabor costs contain all the components of unit nonlabor payments ex cept unit profits. Unit profits include corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital con sumption adjustments per unit of output. Hours of all persons are the total hours at work of payroll workers, self-employed persons, and unpaid family workers. Labor inputs are hours of all persons ad justed for the effects of changes in the edu cation and experience of the labor force. Capital services are the flow of services from the capital stock used in production. It is developed from measures of the net stock of physical assets—equipment, structures, land, and inventories—weighted by rental prices for each type of asset. Combined units of labor and capital inputs are derived by combining changes in labor and capital input with weights which represent each component’s share of total cost. Combined units of labor, capital, energy, materials, and purchased business services are similarly derived by combining changes in each input with weights that represent each input’s share of total costs. The indexes for each input and for combined units are based on changing weights which are averages of the shares in the current and preceding year (the Tomquist index-number formula). Notes on the data Business sector output is an annually-weighted index constructed by excluding from real gross domestic product (g d p ) the following outputs: general government, nonprofit institutions, paid employees of private households, and the rental value of owner-occupied dwellings. Nonfarm business also excludes farming. Pri vate business and private nonfarm business further exclude government enterprises. The measures are supplied by the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analy sis. Annual estimates of manufacturing sectoral output are produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Quarterly manufacturing output in dexes from the Federal Reserve Board are ad justed to these annual output measures by the b ls . Compensation data are developed from data of the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Hours data are developed from data of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The productivity and associated cost mea sures in tables 39-42 describe the relation- Monthly Labor Review November 2001 91 Current Labor Statistics put. Labor compensation includes pay sons than the figures regularly published by roll as well as supplemental payments, in each country. For further information on ad cluding both legally required expenditures justments and comparability issues, see Constance Sorrentino, “International unem and payments for voluntary programs. Multifactor productivity is derived by ployment rates: how comparable are they?” dividing an index of industry output by an M onthly L a b o r R eview , June 2000, pp. 3-20. index of the combined inputs consumed in producing that output. Combined inputs Definitions include capital, labor, and intermediate pur chases. The measure of capital input used For the principal U.S. definitions of the labor represents the flow of services from the force, employment, and unemployment, see capital stock used in production. It is devel the Notes section on Employment and Unem oped from measures of the net stock of ployment Data: Household survey data. physical assets—equipment, structures, land, and inventories. The measure of in Notes on the data termediate purchases is a combination of purchased materials, services, fuels, and The adjusted statistics have been adapted to the age at which compulsory schooling ends electricity. in each country, rather than to the U.S. stan dard of 16 years of age and older. Therefore, Notes on the data the adjusted statistics relate to the popula The industry measures are compiled from tion aged 16 and older in France, Sweden, Industry productivity data produced by the Bureau of Labor Statis and the United Kingdom; 15 and older in tics and the Bureau of the Census, with addi Australia, Japan, Germany, Italy from 1993 m easures tional data supplied by other government onward, and the Netherlands; and 14 and older agencies, trade associations, and other in Italy prior to 1993. An exception to this Description of the series rule is that the Canadian statistics for 1976 sources. The b l s industry productivity data For most industries, the productivity onward are adjusted to cover ages 16 and supplement the measures for the business indexes refer to the output per hour of all older, whereas the age at which compulsory economy and major sectors with annual employees. For some trade and services in schooling ends remains at 15. The institu measures of labor productivity for selected dustries, indexes of output per hour of all tional population is included in the denomi industries at the three- and four-digit levels persons (including self-employed) are con nator of the labor force participation rates of the Standard Industrial Classification structed. For some transportation indus and employment-population ratios for Japan system. In addition to labor productivity, tries, only indexes of output per employee and Germany; it is excluded for the United the industry data also include annual States and the other countries. are prepared. measures of compensation and unit labor In the U.S. labor force survey, persons on FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION On this se costs for three-digit industries and measures ries, contact the Division of Industry Produc layoff who are awaiting recall to their jobs of multifactor productivity for three-digit tivity Studies: (202) 691-5618. are classified as unemployed. European and manufacturing industries and railroad Japanese layoff practices are quite different transportation. The industry measures differ in nature from those in the United States; in methodology and data sources from the therefore, strict application of the U.S. defi International Comparisons nition has not been made on this point. For productivity measures for the major sectors because the industry measures are (Tables 43^15) further information, see M o n th ly L a b o r R e developed independently of the National view , December 1981, pp. 8-11. Income and Product Accounts framework The figures for one or more recent years Labor force and used for the major sector measures. for France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, unemploym ent and the United Kingdom are calculated using Definitions adjustment factors based on labor force sur veys for earlier years and are considered pre Output per hour is derived by dividing an index Description of the series liminary. The recent-year measures for these of industry output by an index of labor input. countries, therefore, are subject to revision Tables 43 and 44 present comparative meas For most industries, output indexes are de rived from data on the value of industry out ures of the labor force, employment, and un whenever data from more current labor force put adjusted for price change. For the remain employment— approximating U.S. con surveys become available. There are breaks in the data series for the ing industries, output indexes are derived from cepts—for the United States, Canada, Aus United States (1990,1994,1997,1998,1999, tralia, Japan, and several European countries. data on the physical quantity of production. The labor input series consist of the hours The unemployment statistics (and, to a lesser 2000), Canada (1976) France (1992), Ger of all employees (production workers and non extent, employment statistics) published by many (1991), Italy (1991, 1993), the Neth production workers), the hours of all persons other industrial countries are not, in most erlands (1988), and Sweden (1987). For the United States, the break in series (paid employees, partners, proprietors, and cases, comparable to U.S. unemployment unpaid family workers), or the number of em statistics. Therefore, the Bureau adjusts the reflects a major redesign of the labor force figures for selected countries, where neces survey questionnaire and collection method ployees, depending upon the industry. Unit labor costs represent the labor sary, for all known major definitional differ ology introduced in January 1994. Revised compensation costs per unit of output pro ences. Although precise comparability may population estimates based on the 1990 cen duced, and are derived by dividing an index not be achieved, these adjusted figures pro sus, adjusted for the estimated undercount, of labor compensation by an index of out vide a better basis for international compari- also were incorporated. In 1996, previously ship between output in real terms and the labor and capital inputs involved in its pro duction. They show the changes from period to period in the amount of goods and ser vices produced per unit of input. Although these measures relate output to hours and capital services, they do not mea sure the contributions of labor, capital, or any other specific factor of production. Rather, they reflect thejoint effect of many influences, including changes in technology; shifts in the composition of the labor force; capital invest ment; level of output; changes in the utiliza tion of capacity, energy, material, and research and development; the organization of produc tion; managerial skill; and characteristics and efforts of the work force. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION on this productivity series, contact the Division of Productivity Research: (202) 691-5606. Digitized for 92 FRASER Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 published data for the 1990-93 period were revised to reflect the 1990 census-based population controls, adjusted for the un dercount. In 1997, revised population con trols were introduced into the household sur vey. Therefore, the data are not strictly conparable with prior years. In 1998, new composite estimation procedures and minor revisions in population controls were intro duced into the household survey. Therefore, the data are not strictly comparable with data for 1997 and earlier years. See the Notes sec tion on Employment and Unemployment Data of this R eview . bls recently introduced a new adjusted series for Canada. Beginning with the data for 1976, Canadian data are adjusted to more closely approximate U.S. concepts. Adjust ments are made to the unemployed and labor force to exclude: (1 )1 5-year-olds; (2) pas sive jobseekers (persons only reading news paper ads as their method of job search); (3) persons waiting to start a new job who did not seek work in the past 4 weeks; and (4) persons unavailable for work due to personal or family responsibilities. An adjustment is made to include full-tine students looking for full-time work. The impact of the adjust ments was to lower the annual average unem ployment rate by 0.1-0.4 percentage point in the 1980s and 0.4-1.0 percentage point in the 1990s. For France, the 1992 break reflects the substitution of standardized European Union Statistical Office ( eurostat ) unemployment statistics for the unemployment data esti mated according to the International Labor Office ( ilo ) definition and published in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) annual yearbook and quarterly update. This change was made be cause the eurostat data are more up-to-date than the OECD figures. Also, since 1992, the eurostat definitions are closer to the U.S. definitions than they were in prior years. The impact of this revision was to lower the un employment rate by 0.1 percentage point in 1992 and 1993, by 0.4 percentage point in 1994, and 0.5 percentage point in 1995. For Germany, the data for 1991 onward refer to unified Germany. Data prior to 1991 relate to the former West Germany. The im pact of including the former East Germany was to increase the unemployment rate from 4.3 to 5.6 percent in 1991. For Italy, the 1991 break reflects a revi sion in the method of weighting sample data. The impact was to increase the unemploy ment rate by approximately 0.3 percentage point, from 6.6 to 6.9 percent in 1991. In October 1992, the survey methodol ogy was revised and the definition of unem ployment was changed to include only those who were actively looking for a job within the 30 days preceding the survey and who https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis were available for work. In addition, the lower age limit for the labor force was raised from 14 to 15 years. (Prior to these changes, bls adjusted Italy’s published unemploy ment rate downward by excluding from the unemployed those persons who had not actively sought work in the past 30 days.) The break in the series also reflects the incor poration of the 1991 population census re sults. The impact of these changes was to raise Italy’s adjusted unemployment rate by approximately 1.2 percentage points, from 8.3 to 9.5 percent in fourth-quarter 1992. These changes did not affect employment significantly, except in 1993. Estimates by the Italian Statistical Office indicate that em ployment declined by about 3 percent in 1993, rather than the nearly 4 percent indi cated by the data shown in table 44. This difference is attributable mainly to the incor poration of the 1991 population benchmarks in the 1993 data. Data for earlier years have not been adjusted to incorporate the 1991 census results. For the Netherlands, a new survey ques tionnaire was introduced in 1992 that allowed for a closer application of ilo guidelines. eurostat has revised the Dutch series back to 1988 based on the 1992 changes. The 1988 revised unemployment rate is 7.6 percent; the previous estimate for the same year was 9.3 percent. There have been two breaks in series in the Swedish labor force survey, in 1987 and 1993. Adjustments have been made for the 1993 break back to 1987. In 1987, a new questionnaire was introduced. Questions re garding current availability were added and the period of active workseeking was re duced from 60 days to 4 weeks. These changes lowered Sweden’s 1987 unemploy ment rate by 0.4 percentage point, from 2.3 to 1.9 percent. In 1993, the measurement period for the labor force survey was changed to represent all 52 weeks of the year rather than one week each month and a new adjustment for population totals was intro duced. The impact was to raise the unem ployment rate by approximately 0.5 per centage point, from 7.6 to 8.1 percent. Sta tistics Sweden revised its labor force survey data for 1987-92 to take into account the break in 1993. The adjustment raised the Swedish unemployment rate by 0.2 percent age point in 1987 and gradually rose to 0.5 percentage point in 1992. Beginning with 1987, bls has adjusted the Swedish data to classify students who also sought work as unemployed. The impact of this change was to increase the adjusted un employment rate by 0.1 percentage point in 1987 and by 1.8 percentage points in 1994, when unemployment was higher. In 1998, the adjusted unemployment rate had risen from 6.5 to 8.4 percent due to the adjustment to include students. The net effect of the 1987 and 1993 changes and the bls adjustment for students seeking work lowered Sweden’s 1987 unem ployment rate from 2.3 to 2.2 percent. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION On this se ries, contact the Division of Foreign Labor Statistics: (202) 691-5654. M anufacturing productivity and labor costs Description of the series Table 45 presents comparative indexes of manufacturing labor productivity (output per hour), output, total hours, compensation per hour, and unit labor costs for the United States, Canada, Japan, and nine European countries. These measures are trend compari sons—that is, series that measure changes over time—rather than level comparisons. There are greater technical problems in com paring the levels of manufacturing output among countries. BLS constructs the comparative indexes from three basic aggregate measures—output, total labor hours, and total compensation. The hours and compensation measures refer to all employed persons (wage and salary earners plus self-employed persons and un paid family workers) in the United States, Canada, Japan, France, Germany, Norway, and Sweden, and to all employees (wage and salary earners) in the other countries. Definitions Output, in general, refers to value added in manufacturing from the national accounts of each country. However, the output series for Japan prior to 1970 is an index of indus trial production, and the national accounts measures for the United Kingdom are essen tially identical to their indexes of industrial production. The 1977-97 output data for the United States are the gross product originating (value added) measures prepared by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U.S. Department of Commerce. Comparable manufacturing output data currently are not available prior to 1977. U.S. gross product originating is a chaintype annual-weighted series. (For more in formation on the U.S. measure, see Robert E. Yuskavage, “Improved Estimates of Gross Product by Industry, 1959-94,” S u rvey o f C u rren t B usiness, August 1996, pp. 133— 55.) The Japanese value added series is based upon one set of fixed price weights for the years 1970 through 1997. Output series for the other foreign economies also employ fixed price weights, but the weights are updated periodically (for example, every 5 or 10 years). Monthly Labor Review November 2001 93 Current Labor Statistics To preserve the comparability of the U.S. measures with those for other economies, bls uses gross product originating in manufac turing for the United States for these com parative measures. The gross product origi nating series differs from the manufacturing output series that bls publishes in its news releases on quarterly measures of U.S. pro ductivity and costs (and that underlies the measures that appear in tables 39 and 41 in this section). The quarterly measures are on a “sectoral output” basis, rather than a valueadded basis. Sectoral output is gross output less intrasector transactions. Total labor hours refers to hours worked in all countries. The measures are developed from statistics of manufacturing employment and average hours. The series used for France (from 1970 forward), Norway, and Sweden are official series published with the national accounts. Where official total hours series are not available, the measures are developed by bls using employment figures published with the national accounts, or other comprehen sive employment series, and estimates of annual hours worked. For Germany, BLS uses estimates of average hours worked developed by a research institute connected to the Min istry of Labor for use with the national ac counts employment figures. For the other countries, bls constructs its own estimates of average hours. Denmark has not published estimates of average hours for 1994-97; therefore, the bls measure of labor input for Denmark ends in 1993. Total compensation (labor cost) includes all payments in cash or in-kind made directly to employees plus employer expenditures for legally required insurance programs and con tractual and private benefit plans. The mea sures are from the national accounts of each country, except those for Belgium, which are developed by bls using statistics on employ ment, average hours, and hourly compensa tion. For Canada, France, and Sweden, com pensation is increased to account for other sig nificant taxes on payroll or employment. For the United Kingdom, compensation is reduced between 1967 and 1991 to account for em ployment-related subsidies. Self-employed workers are included in the all-employed-per sons measures by assuming that their hourly compensation is equal to the average for wage and salary employees. Notes on the data In general, the measures relate to total manu facturing as defined by the International Stan dard Industrial Classification. However, the measures for France (for all years) and Italy (beginning 1970) refer to mining and manu facturing less energy-related products, and the measures for Denmark include mining Monthly Labor Review Digitized for 94 FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and exclude manufacturing handicrafts from 1960 to 1966. The measures for recent years may be based on current indicators of manufactur ing output (such as industrial production in dexes), employment, average hours, and hourly compensation until national accounts and other statistics used for the long-term measures become available. F or additional information on this se ries, contact the Division of Foreign Labor Statistics: (202) 691-5654. Survey of O ccu p atio n al Injuries and Illnesses cludes acute and chronic illnesses or disease which may be caused by inhalation, absorp tion, ingestion, or direct contact. Lost workday injuries and illnesses are cases that involve days away from work, or days of restricted work activity, or both. Lost workdays include the number of workdays (consecutive or not) on which the employee was either away from work or at work in some restricted capacity, or both, because of an occupational injury or illness, b ls measures of the number and incidence rate of lost workdays were dis continued beginning with the 1993 survey. The number of days away from work or days of restricted work activity does not include the day of injury or onset of illness or any days on which the employee would not have worked, such as a Federal holiday, even though able to work. Incidence rates are computed as the number of injuries and/or illnesses or lost work days per 100 full-time workers. Description of the series Notes on the data Occupational Injury and Illness Data (Tables 46-47) The Survey of Occupational Injuries and Ill nesses collects data from employers about their workers’ job-related nonfatal injuries and ill nesses. The information that employers provide is based on records that they maintain under the Occupational Safety and Health Act of 1970. Self-employed individuals, farms with fewer than 11 employees, employers regulated by other Federal safety and health laws, and Federal, State, and local government agencies are excluded from the survey. The survey is a Federal-State coopera tive program with an independent sample selected for each participating State. A strati fied random sample with a Neyman alloca tion is selected to represent all private in dustries in the State. The survey is stratified by Standard Industrial Classification and size of employment. Definitions Under the Occupational Safety and Health Act, employers maintain records of nonfatal work-related injuries and illnesses that in volve one or more of the following: loss of consciousness, restriction of work or motion, transfer to another job, or medical treatment other than first aid. Occupational injury is any injury such as a cut, fracture, sprain, or amputation that re sults from a work-related event or a single, in stantaneous exposure in the work environment. Occupational illness is an abnormal con dition or disorder, other than one resulting from an occupational injury, caused by exposure to factors associated with employment. It in- November 2001 The definitions of occupational injuries and illnesses are from R ecordkeeping G uidelines f o r O ccupational Injuries a n d Illnesses (U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Sta tistics, September 1986). Estimates are made for industries and em ployment size classes for total recordable cases, lost workday cases, days away from work cases, and nonfatal cases without lost work days. These data also are shown separately for injuries. Illness data are available for seven cat egories: occupational skin diseases or disorders, dust diseases of the lungs, respiratory condi tions due to toxic agents, poisoning (systemic effects of toxic agents), disorders due to physi cal agents (other than toxic materials), disor ders associated with repeated trauma, and all other occupational illnesses. The survey continues to measure the num ber of new work-related illness cases which are recognized, diagnosed, and reported dur ing the year. Some conditions, for example, long-term latent illnesses caused by exposure to carcinogens, often are difficult to relate to the workplace and are not adequately recog nized and reported. These long-term latent ill nesses are believed to be understated in the survey’s illness measure. In contrast, the over whelming majority of the reported new ill nesses are those which are easier to directly relate to workplace activity (for example, con tact dermatitis and carpal tunnel syndrome). Most of the estimates are in the form of incidence rates, defined as the number of in juries and illnesses per 100 equivalent full time workers. For this purpose, 200,000 em ployee hours represent 100 employee years (2,000 hours per employee). Full detail on the available measures is presented in the annual bulletin, O ccupational Injuries a n d Illnesses: Counts, Rates, a n d C haracteristics. Census of Fatal O ccu p a tio n a l Injuries Comparable data for more than 40 States and territories are available from the bls Of The Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries fice of Safety, Health and Working Condi compiles a complete roster of fatal job-re tions. Many of these States publish data on lated injuries, including detailed data about State and local government employees in ad the fatally injured workers and the fatal events. The program collects and cross dition to private industry data. Mining and railroad data are furnished to checks fatality information from multiple sources, including death certificates, State bls by the Mine Safety and Health Adminis tration and the Federal Railroad Administra and Federal workers’ compensation reports, tion. Data from these organizations are in Occupational Safety and Health Administra cluded in both the national and State data tion and Mine Safety and Health Administra tion records, medical examiner and autopsy published annually. With the 1992 survey, bls began publish reports, media accounts, State motor vehicle ing details on serious, nonfatal incidents re fatality records, and follow-up questionnaires sulting in days away from work. Included are to employers. In addition to private wage and salary some major characteristics of the injured and ill workers, such as occupation, age, gender, workers, the self-employed, family mem race, and length of service, as well as the cir bers, and Federal, State, and local govern cumstances of their injuries and illnesses (na ment workers are covered by the program. ture of the disabling condition, part of body To be included in the fatality census, the affected, event and exposure, and the source decedent must have been employed (that directly producing the condition). In general, is working for pay, compensation, or these data are available nationwide for de profit) at the time of the event, engaged in tailed industries and for individual States at a legal work activity, or present at the site of the incident as a requirement of his or more aggregated industry levels. her job. F or additional information on occu pational injuries and illnesses, contact the Office of Occupational Safety, Health and Definition Working Conditions at (202) 691-6180, or access the Internet at: A fatal work injury is any intentional or unin http://www.bIs.gov/oshhome.htm tentional wound or damage to the body result- ing in death from acute exposure to energy, such as heat or electricity, or kinetic energy from a crash, or from the absence of such es sentials as heat or oxygen caused by a specific event or incident or series of events within a single workday or shift. Fatalities that occur during a person’s commute to or from work are excluded from the census, as well as workrelated illnesses, which can be difficult to identify due to long latency periods. Notes on the data Twenty-eight data elements are collected, coded, and tabulated in the fatality program, including information about the fatally in jured worker, the fatal incident, and the ma chinery or equipment involved. Summary worker demographic data and event charac teristics are included in a national news re lease that is available about 8 months after the end of the reference year. The Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries was initiated in 1992 as a joint Federal-State effort. Most States issue summary information at the time of the national news release. F or a d d it io n a l info r m a tio n on the Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries con tact the bls Office of Safety, Health, and Working Conditions at (202) 691-6175, or the Internet at: http://www.bls.gov/oshhome.htm Bureau of Labor Statistics Internet The Bureau of Labor Statistics World Wide Web site on the Internet contains a range of data on consumer and producer prices, employment and unemployment, occupational com pensation, employee benefits, workplace injuries and illnesses, and productivity. The homepage can be accessed using any Web browser: http://stats.bls.gov Also, some data can be accessed through anonymous FTP or Gopher at stats.bls.gov https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monthly Labor Review November 2001 95 Current Labor Statistics: Comparative Indicators 1. Labor market indicators 2001 2000 1999 S elected indicators IV III III II 1 IV III II I E m p lo y m e n t d a ta Employment status of the civilian noninstitutionalized population (household survey):1 Labor force participation rate................................................. Employment-population ratio................................................. Unemployment rate.............................................................. Men.................................................................................. 16 to 24 years.................................................................. 25 years and over............................................................. Women............................................................................. 16 to 24 years.................................................................. 25 years and over............................................................. Employment, nonfarm (payroll data), in thousands:1 Total.................................................................................... Goods-producing.............................................................. Manufacturing............................................................... Service-producing............................................................ Average hours: Private sector..................................................................... Manufacturing.................................................................. Overtime....................................................................... 67.1 64.3 4.2 4.1 10.3 3.0 4.3 9.5 3.3 67.2 64.5 4.0 3.9 9.7 2.8 4.1 8.9 3.2 67.1 64.2 4.2 4.1 10.1 3.0 4.3 9.6 3.3 67.1 64.3 4.1 4.0 10.3 2.9 4.2 9.4 3.1 67.4 64.6 4.1 3.9 9.7 2.8 4.2 9.5 3.2 67.3 64.6 4.0 3.9 9.8 2.8 4.1 9.0 3.2 67.0 64.3 4.0 3.9 9.8 2.8 4.2 8.6 3.3 67.1 64.4 4.0 4.0 9.6 2.9 4.0 8.6 3.0 67.2 64.4 4.2 4.3 10.6 3.1 4.2 8.6 3.3 66.9 63.9 4.5 4.6 11.2 3.4 4.3 9.2 3.4 66.8 63.6 4.8 4.8 11.4 3.6 4.7 10.1 3.7 128,916 108,709 25,507 18,552 103,409 131,759 111,079 25,709 18,469 106,050 129,073 108,874 25,459 18,516 103,614 129,783 109,507 25,524 18,482 104,259 130,984 110,456 25,704 18,504 105,280 131,854 110,917 25,711 18,510 106,143 131,927 111,293 25,732 18,487 106,195 132,264 111,669 25,704 18,378 106,560 132,559 111,886 25,621 18,188 106,938 132,483 111,702 25,310 17,882 107,173 132,342 111,362 24,986 17,555 107,356 34.5 41.7 4.6 34.5 41.6 4.6 34.5 41.8 4.6 34.5 41.7 4.7 34.5 41.8 4.7 34.5 41.8 4.7 34.4 41.5 4.5 34.3 41.1 4.3 34.3 41.0 4.1 34.2 40.8 3.9 34.1 40.7 4.0 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 4.1 4.4 4.4 4.4 3.0 1.1 .9 .9 .9 1.5 .9 .9 1.0 .8 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.4 .6 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 .3 1.0 .9 .7 .7 .6 .7 .7 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.4 .9 .9 1.0 .9 1.0 .6 1.2 .9 .7 1.0 2.1 .5 .7 .7 1.5 1.1 1.0 1.0 .9 E m p lo y m e n t C o s t In d e x 2 Percent change in the ECI, compensation: All workers (excluding farm, household and Federal workers).... Private industry workers...................................................... Goods-producing3.................................. ........................ Service-producing3........................................................ State and local government workers..................................... .9 1.0 1.3 Workers by bargaining status (private industry): 1.2 1.0 .7 1.3 .9 2.7 4.0 Union................................................................................. 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.0 4.4 .9 3.6 Nonunion............................................................................ ' Quarterly data seasonally adjusted. 2 Annual changes are December-to-December changes. Quarterly changes are calculated using the last month of each quarter. 3 Goods-producing industries include mining, construction, and manufacturing. Service-producing industries include all other private sector industries. 96 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 2. Annual and quarterly percent changes in compensation, prices, and productivity Selected m easures 1999 1999 2000 II 2000 III IV I II 2001 III IV I II Compensation data1,2 Employment Cost Index—compensation (wages, salaries, benefits): Civilian nonfarm................................................................. Private nonfarm............................................................. 3.4 3.4 4.1 4.4 1.0 1.1 1.1 .9 0.9 .9 1.3 1.5 1.0 1.2 1.0 .9 0.7 .7 1.3 1.4 0.9 1.0 Employment Cost Index—wages and salaries: Civilian nonfarm................................................................ Private nonfarm.............................................................. 3.5 3.5 3.8 3.9 1.0 1.2 1.1 .9 .8 .9 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 .6 .6 1.1 1,2 .9 1.0 2.7 1.0 .7 1.0 .2 1.7 .7 .8 -.1 1.0 1.0 2.9 3.8 .3 3.7 15.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.8 -.4 1.9 9.4 1.5 2.2 -.4 1.9 10.2 .1 -.2 1.2 .1 -3.5 1.4 1.8 .1 1.9 9.1 1.3 1.8 .0 1.6 11.2 .6 .7 .0 1.0 .3 1.0 1.0 I.O -.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 -.1 1.0 -.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Business sector...................................................... Nonfarm business sector.................................................. 2.8 2.6 4.3 4.3 -1.1 -1.4 2.9 3.0 7.0 7.4 -.6 -.6 7.3 6.3 1.0 1.4 3.0 2.3 .0 .1 2.8 2.5 Nonfinancial corporations4................................................... 3.5 4.2 .4 2.8 4.5 4.0 7.1 4.0 1.6 .6 2.8 Price data1 Consumer Price Index (All Urban Consumers): All Items..... Producer Price Index: Finished goods.......................................................... Finished consumer goods................................................ Capital equipment............................................................. Intermediate materials, supplies, and components............. Crude materials............................................................... Productivity data3 Output per hour of all persons: 1 Annual changes are December-to-December changes. Quarterly changes are calculated using the last month of each quarter. Compensation and price data are not seasonally adjusted, and the price data are not compounded. cent changes reflect annual rates of change in quarterly indexes. The data are seasonally adjusted. 4 Output per hour of all employees. 2 Excludes Federal and private household workers. 3 Annual rates of change are computed by comparing annual averages. Quarterly per- 3. Alternative measures of wage and compensation changes Q u a r te rly a v e ra g e C o m p o n e n ts 2000 III Average hourly compensation:1 All persons, business sector.............................................. All persons, nonfarm business sector........................................ F o u r q u a r te rs e n d in g 2001 IV 1 II 2000 III III 2001 IV I II III 6.5 7.1 9.4 8.9 5.3 5.1 5.3 4.8 4.1 4.5 6.1 6.3 7.6 7.4 7.4 7.2 6.6 6.5 6.0 5.8 1.0 .9 1.2 1.0 1.3 .7 .7 .5 .7 .7 1.3 1.4 .7 1.5 .9 .9 1.0 1.1 1.0 .6 1.2 .9 1.0 .9 2.1 4.3 4.6 4.2 4.7 3.3 4.1 4.4 4.0 4.4 3.0 4.1 4.2 3.4 3.3 3.9 4.0 3.5 4.2 3.6 4.1 4.0 3.4 4.1 4.4 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.7 .6 .6 .9 .6 .7 1.1 1.2 .6 1.2 .7 .9 1.0 1.1 .9 .5 1.0 .8 1.0 .8 1.9 4.0 4.1 3.2 4.3 3.5 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.9 3.4 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.9 3.5 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 Employment Cost Index—compensation: Civilian nonfarm2.......................................... Private nonfarm............................................... Union......................................................... Nonunion.................................................. State and local governments........................................... 4.3 Employment Cost Index—wages and salaries: Civilian nonfarm2............................................ Private nonfarm................................................. Union................................................................ Nonunion...................................................... State and local governments........................................... 4.0 3.3 3.6 3.9 Excludes Federal and household workers. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monthly Labor Review November 2001 97 Current Labor Statistics: Labor Force Data 4. Employment status of the population, by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, monthly data seasonally adjusted [Numbers in thousands] E m p lo ym e n t statu s A n nu al averag e 1999 2000 2001 2000 Sept. O ct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. M ar. A pr. M ay June July A ug. S ept 209,699 140,863 67.2 135,208 210,161 140,847 67.0 135,310 210,378 141,000 67.0 135,464 210,577 141,136 67.0 135,478 210,743 141,489 67.1 135,836 210,889 141,955 67.3 135,999 211,026 141,751 67.2 135,815 211,171 141,868 67.2 135,780 211,348 141,757 67.1 135,354 211,525 141,272 66.8 135,103 211,725 141,354 66.8 134,932 211,921 141,774 66.9 135,379 212,135 141,350 66.6 134,393 212,357 142,190 67.0 135,181 64.5 5,655 4.0 68,836 64.4 5,537 3.9 69,314 64.4 5,536 3.9 69,378 64.3 5,658 4.0 69,441 64.5 5,653 4.0 69,254 64.5 5,956 4.2 68,934 64.4 5,936 4.2 69,275 64.3 6,088 4.3 69,304 64.0 6,402 4.5 69,592 63.9 6,169 4.4 70,254 63.7 6,422 4.5 70,370 63.9 6,395 4.5 70,147 63.4 6,957 4.9 70,785 63.7 7,009 4.9 70,167 91,555 79,104 76.7 67,761 92,580 70,930 76.6 68,580 92,863 71,053 76.5 68,728 92,969 71,155 76.5 68,774 93,061 71,135 76.4 68,683 93,117 71,289 76.6 68,848 93,184 71,492 76.7 68,916 93,227 71,288 76.5 68,761 93,285 71,261 76.4 68,534 93,410 71,575 76.6 68,706 93,541 71,351 76.3 68,595 93,616 71,346 76.2 68,466 93,708 71,555 76.4 68,745 93,810 71,514 76.2 68,402 93,917 71,894 76.6 68,826 74.0 2,028 74.1 2,252 74.0 2,350 74.0 2,219 73.8 2,122 73.9 2,232 74.0 2,122 73.8 2,154 73.5 2,150 73.6 2,117 73 3 2,169 73.1 2,035 73.4 2,028 72.9 2,140 73.3 2,175 65,517 2,433 3.5 66,328 2,350 3.3 66,378 2,325 3.3 66,555 2,381 3.3 66,561 2,452 3.4 66,616 2,441 3.4 66,795 2,576 3.6 66,607 2,527 3.5 66,383 2,728 3.8 66,589 2,869 4.0 66,426 2,756 3.9 66,430 2,880 4.0 66,717 2,810 3.9 66,262 3,112 4.4 66,651 3,069 4.3 population1....................... 100,158 Civilian labor force............ 60,840 Participation rate........ 60.7 Employed..................... 58,555 Employment-pop58.5 Agriculture................. 803 Nonagricultural industries................ 57,752 Unemployed................. 2,285 Unemployment rate.... 3.8 101,078 61,565 60.9 59,352 101,321 61,486 60.7 59,344 101,448 61,528 60.6 59,425 101,533 61,625 60.7 59,506 101,612 61,819 60.8 59,708 101,643 62,126 61.1 59,894 101,686 62,220 61.2 59,932 101,779 62,412 61.3 60,178 101,870 62,132 61.0 59,741 101,938 62,119 60.9 59,766 102,023 61,890 60.7 59,510 102,067 62,145 60.9 59,752 102,165 62,172 60.9 59,562 102,277 62,242 60.9 59,489 58.7 818 58.6 764 58.6 748 58.6 797 58.8 822 58.9 852 58.9 839 59.1 819 58.6 847 58.6 822 58.3 752 58.5 773 58 3 766 58 2 826 58,535 2,212 3.6 58,580 2,142 3.5 58,677 2,103 3.4 58,709 2,119 3.4 58,886 2,111 3.4 59,042 2,232 3.6 59,093 2,288 3.7 59,359 2,233 3.6 58,895 2,390 3.8 58,943 2,353 3.8 58,759 2,380 3.8 58,978 2,394 3.9 58,796 2,610 4.2 58,663 2,754 4.4 16,040 8,333 52.0 7,172 16,042 8,369 7,216 15,977 8,308 52.0 7,238 15,960 8,317 52.1 7,265 15,983 8,376 52.4 7,289 16,014 8,381 52.3 7,280 16,063 8,337 51.9 7,188 16,113 8,243 51.2 7,122 16,108 8,195 50.9 7,067 16,068 8,050 50.1 6,907 16,046 7,802 48.6 6,742 16,086 8,118 50.5 6,956 16,145 8,074 50.0 6,883 16,161 7,664 47.4 6,429 16,163 8,054 49.8 6,867 44.7 234 45.4 235 45.3 242 45.5 274 45.6 257 45.5 220 44.7 205 44.2 143 43.9 191 43.0 229 42.0 201 43.2 209 42.6 244 39.8 211 42.5 219 6,938 1,162 13.9 7,041 1,093 13.1 6,996 1,070 12.9 6,991 1,052 12.6 7,032 1,087 13.0 7,060 1,101 13.1 6,983 1,149 13.8 6,980 1,121 13.6 6,876 1,127 13.8 6,678 1,143 14.2 6,541 1,060 13.6 6,748 1,162 14.3 6,638 1,191 14.8 6,218 1,236 16.1 6,648 1,187 14.7 173,085 Civilian labor force............ 116,509 Participation rate........ 67.3 Employed..................... 112,235 Employment-pop64.8 ulation ratio2............ Unemployed................. 4,273 Unemployment rate.... 3.7 174,428 117,574 67.4 113,475 174,745 117,553 67.3 113,464 174,899 117,603 67.2 113,584 175,034 117,640 67.2 113,509 175,145 117,945 67.3 113,811 175,246 118,276 67.5 114,015 175,362 118,287 67.5 113,902 175,416 118,243 67.4 113,853 175,533 118,145 67.3 113,434 175,653 117,688 67.0 113,185 175,789 117,733 67.0 113,037 175,924 117,982 67.1 113,237 176,069 117,726 66.9 112,703 176,220 118,290 67.1 113,201 65.1 4,099 3.5 64.9 4,089 3.5 64.9 4,019 3.4 64.8 4,131 3.5 65.0 4,134 3.5 65.1 4,261 3.6 65.0 4,385 3.7 64.9 4,389 3.7 64.6 4,711 4.0 64.4 4,503 3.8 64.3 4,696 4.0 64.4 4,745 4.0 64.0 5,024 4.3 64.2 5,089 4.3 24,855 16,365 65.8 15,056 25,218 16,603 65.8 15,334 25,299 16,489 65.2 15,304 25,339 16,627 65.6 15,401 25,376 16,732 65.9 15,485 25,408 16,742 65.9 15,470 25,382 16,773 66.1 15,372 25,412 16,691 65.7 15,440 25,441 16,789 66.0 15,348 25,472 16,666 65.4 15,299 25,501 16,639 65.2 15,311 25,533 16,756 65.6 15,343 25,565 16,693 65.3 15,374 25,604 16,712 65.3 15,195 25,644 16,792 65.5 15,327 60.6 1,309 8.0 60.8 1,269 7.6 60.5 1,185 7.2 60.8 1,226 7.4 61.0 1,247 7.5 60.9 1,272 7.6 60.6 1,401 8.4 60.8 1,251 7.5 60.3 1,441 8.6 60.1 1,367 8.2 60.0 1,328 8.0 60.1 1,413 8.4 60.1 1,320 7.9 59.3 1,517 9.1 59.8 1,466 8.7 TOTAL Civilian noninstitutional 207,753 Civilian labor force............ 139,368 Participation rate........ 67.1 Employed..................... 133,488 Employment-pop ulation ratio2............ 64.3 Unemployed................. 5,880 Unemployment rate.... 4.2 Not In the labor force....... 68,385 M e n , 20 y e a rs a n d o v er Civilian noninstitutional Civilian labor force............. Participation rate........ Employed..................... Employment-popAgriculture................. Nonagrlcultural industries................ Unemployed................. Unemployment rate.... W o m en , 20 yea rs a n d o ver Civilian noninstitutional B o th s e x e s , 1 6 to 1 9 y e a rs Civilian noninstitutional population1....................... Civilian labor force............ Participation rate........ Employed..................... Employment-population ratio2............ Agriculture.................. Nonagrlcultural industries................. Unemployed................. Unemployment rate.... 522 W h ite Civilian noninstitutional B la c k Civilian noninstitutional population1....................... Civilian labor force............ Participation rate........ Employed..................... Employment-population ratio2........... Unemployed................. Unemployment rate.... See footnotes at end of table. 98 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 4. Continued—Employment status of the population, by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, monthly data seasonally adjusted [Numbers in thousands] E m p lo ym e n t statu s A nnu al a ve ra g e 2000 2001 1999 2000 Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. M ar. A pr. M ay Ju n e July A ug. Sept. 21,650 14,665 67.7 13,720 22,393 15,368 68.6 14,492 22,555 15,513 68.8 14,647 22,618 15,491 68.5 14,711 22,687 15,626 68.9 14,686 22,749 15,671 68.9 14,772 22,769 15,540 68.2 14,612 22,830 15,653 68.6 14,673 22,889 15,770 68.9 14,782 22,957 15,775 68.7 14,747 23,021 15,608 67.8 14,634 23,090 15,570 67.4 14,538 23,157 15,788 68.2 14,843 23,222 15,772 67.9 14,778 23,288 15,813 67.9 14,802 63.4 945 6.4 64.7 876 5.7 64.9 866 5.6 65.0 780 5.0 64.7 940 6.0 64.9 899 5.7 64.2 927 6.1 64.3 980 6.3 64.6 988 6.3 64.2 1,028 6.5 63.6 975 6.2 63.0 1,032 6.6 64.1 945 6.0 63.6 994 6.3 63.6 1,010 6.4 H is p a n ic o r ig in Civilian noninstitutional population1....................... Civilian labor force............ Participation rate........ Employed..................... Employment-pop ulation ratio2............ Unemployed................. Unemployment rate.... ’ The population figures are not seasonally adjusted. Civilian employment as a percent of the civilian noninstitutional population. NOTE: Detail for the above race and Hispanic-origin groups will not sum to totals becausedata for the "other races" groups are not presented and Hispanics are included in both the white and black population groups. 5. Selected employment Indicators, monthly data seasonally adjusted [In thousands] A n nu al a ve ra g e 1999 2000 S ept. O ct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. M ar. Apr. M ay Ju n e July A ug. S ept. 133,488 771,446 62,042 135,208 72,293 62,915 135,310 72,398 62,912 135,464 72,427 63,037 135,478 72,354 63,124 135,836 72,534 63,302 135,999 72,589 63,410 135,815 72,359 63,456 135,780 72,201 63,578 135,354 72,245 63,109 135,103 71,978 63,125 134,932 71,926 63,006 135,379 72,279 63,100 134,393 71,690 62,703 135,181 72,333 62,848 43,254 43,368 43,321 43,345 43,251 43,293 43,134 43,340 43,385 43,516 43,733 43,428 43,294 43,172 43,091 33,450 33,708 33,491 33,622 33,633 33,635 34,249 34,059 34,080 33,662 33,686 33,380 33,603 33,805 33,664 8,229 8,387 8,516 8,449 8,495 8,501 8,426 8,373 8,049 8,160 8,319 8,529 8,567 8,323 8,240 1,944 1,297 40 2,034 1,233 38 2,018 1,274 38 2,041 1,182 32 2,005 1,180 25 2,019 1,198 34 1,983 1,182 25 1,839 1,291 29 1,910 1,231 36 1,902 1,223 47 1,958 1,201 38 1,775 1,166 36 1,786 1,256 22 1,850 1,239 29 1,884 1,290 23 121,323 18,903 102,420 933 101,487 8,790 95 123,128 19,053 104,076 890 103,186 8,674 101 123,117 19,003 104,114 824 103,290 8,786 108 123,461 19,073 104,388 812 103,576 8,561 136 123,632 19,146 104,486 827 103,659 8,533 128 123,813 19,352 104,461 879 103,582 8,600 121 124,035 18,843 105,192 859 104,333 8,698 110 124,069 19,103 104,966 823 104,143 8,617 142 123,814 19,134 104,680 881 103,800 8,784 138 123,395 18,854 104,541 812 103,729 8,608 93 123,416 19,067 104,349 789 103,559 8,530 103 123,009 18,812 104,197 744 103,453 8,741 94 123,432 18,919 104,513 790 103,723 8,574 88 122,686 19,219 103,467 827 102,640 8,481 113 123,278 19,397 103,881 809 103,072 8,563 102 3,357 3,190 33,188 3,222 3,416 3,234 3,327 3,273 3,164 3,201 3,371 3,637 3,466 3,326 4,188 1,968 1,927 2,051 1,909 2,183 1,964 2,035 2,043 1,914 2,097 2,215 2,299 2,120 2,086 2,861 1,079 944 831 947 886 896 954 933 907 873 900 1,025 999 935 1,081 18,758 18,722 18,595 18,758 18,896 18,993 18,568 19,021 18,647 18,713 18,581 18,472 18,845 19,153 18,825 3,189 3,045 3,030 3,044 3,285 3,088 3,227 3,143 3,007 3,061 3,197 3,532 3,336 3,196 4,045 1,861 1,835 1,940 1,808 2,082 1,882 1,971 1,970 1,828 1,985 2,089 2,234 2,059 2,004 2,759 1,056 924 817 923 871 877 945 910 877 864 876 1,024 985 911 1,070 18.197 18.165 18.024 18.206 18,323 18.437 18,040 18.509 18,132 18.176 Excludes persons "with a job but not at work" during the survey period for such reasons as vacation, illness, or industrial disputes. 18.061 18,039 18,309 18.580 18,278 2000 S e le c ted categ o ries 2001 C h a r a c te r is t ic Employed, 16 years and over.. Men................................... Women.............................. Married men, spouse present............................ Married women, spouse present............................ Women who maintain families............................ C la s s o f w o r k e r Agriculture: Wage and salary workers.... Self-employed workers....... Unpaid family workers........ Nonagricultural industries: Wage and salary workers.... Government....................... Private industries............... Private households....... Other............................ Self-employed workers...... Unpaid family workers........ P e r s o n s a t w o r k p a r t tim e 1 All industries: Part time for economic reasons............................. Slack work or business conditions..................... Could only find part-time work.............................. Part time for noneconomic reasons............................ Nonagricultural industries: Part time for economic reasons............................. Slack work or business conditions..................... Could only find part-time work............................. Part time for noneconomic reasons........................... https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monthly Labor Review November 2001 99 Current Labor Statistics: 6. Labor Force Data Selected unemployment indicators, monthly data seasonally adjusted [Unemployment rates] 2001 2000 A n n u al a ve ra g e S e le c te d c a te g o rie s 1 99 9 2000 S e p t. O c t. N ov. D ec. J an . F eb . M a r. A p r. M ay June J u ly Aug. S e p t. Characteristic Total. 16 years and over........................... Both sexes, 16 to 19 years................... Men, 20 years and over........................ Women, 20 years and over................... 4.2 13.9 3.5 3.8 4.0 13.1 3.3 3.6 3.9 12.9 3.3 3.5 3.9 12.6 3.3 3.4 4.0 13.0 3.4 3.4 4.0 13.1 3.4 3.4 4.2 13.8 3.6 3.6 4.2 13.6 3.5 3.7 4.3 13.8 3.8 3.6 4.5 14.2 4.0 3.8 4.4 13.6 3.9 3.8 4.5 14.3 4.0 3.8 4.5 14.8 3.9 3.9 4.9 16.1 4.4 4.2 4.9 14.7 4.3 4.4 White, total............................................ Both sexes, 16 to 19 years.............. Men, 16 to 19 years...................... Women, 16 to 19 years................. Men, 20 years and over................... Women, 20 years and over.............. 3.7 12.0 12.6 11.3 3.0 3.3 3.5 11.4 12.3 10.4 2.8 3.1 3.5 11.4 12.2 10.6 2.9 3.1 3.4 11.2 11.8 10.5 2.9 3.0 11.5 11.7 12.4 10.9 3.0 3.0 3.5 11.5 12.2 10.7 2.9 3.1 3.6 11.7 13.3 9.8 3.2 3.0 3.7 10.9 12.6 9.2 3.2 3.3 3.7 11.6 11.8 11.2 3.3 3.1 4.0 11.8 12.8 10.8 3.5 3.5 3.8 11.8 13.1 10.5 3.3 3.4 4.0 12.6 14.5 10.6 3.6 3.3 4.0 13.3 13.7 13.0 3.4 3.5 4.3 14.3 15.8 12.7 3.8 3.6 4.3 12.7 13.5 11.9 3.8 3.8 Black, total............................................ Both sexes, 16 to 19 years.............. Men, 16 to 19 years...................... Women, 16 to 19 years................. Men, 20 years and over................... Women, 20 years and over.............. 8.0 27.9 30.9 25.1 6.7 6.8 7.6 24.7 26.4 23.0 7.0 6.3 7.2 24.1 26.7 21.7 6.5 5.8 7.4 23.9 27.0 21.2 7.0 5.8 7.5 21.9 22.5 21.3 6.9 6.2 7.6 26.7 30.1 23.4 7.3 5.7 8.4 27.9 26.9 28.9 6.9 7.3 7.5 28.8 31.7 25.7 6.6 5.8 8.6 28.9 27.7 30.2 8.5 6.3 8.2 31.6 34.9 28.6 8.2 5.5 8.0 25.1 30.0 20.3 7.6 6.4 8.4 28.2 30.7 26.0 7.8 6.8 7.9 25.5 26.9 24.3 7.9 6.0 9.1 30.4 32.5 28.1 9.0 6.9 8.7 27.7 30.5 24.8 7.6 7.7 Hispanic origin, total........................... 6.4 5.7 5.6 5.0 6.0 5.7 6.0 6.3 6.3 6.5 6.2 6.6 6.0 6.3 6.4 Married men, spouse present............ Married women, spouse present....... 2.2 2.7 6.4 4.1 5.0 2.0 2.7 5.9 3.9 4.8 2.1 2.7 5.4 3.8 4.6 2.1 2.5 5.4 3.8 4.5 2.2 2.5 5.2 3.9 4.5 2.2 2.6 5.1 3.9 4.6 2.3 2.5 . 6.4 4.1 4.9 2.3 2.6 6.1 4.0 4.8 2.5 2.7 6.2 4.2 4.8 2.5 2.9 6.3 4.3 5.5 2.6 2.9 6.2 4.3 4.6 2.6 3.0 6.3 4.4 5.3 2.6 2.8 6.2 4.4 5.1 2.7 3.0 6.7 4.8 5.6 2.7 3.3 7.0 5.0 4.5 4.3 5.7 7.0 3.6 3.5 3.9 3.0 5.2 2.3 4.1 2.2 8.9 4.1 3.9 6.4 3.6 3.4 4.0 3.1 5.0 2.3 3.8 2.1 7.5 4.0 5.0 6.4 3.6 3.2 4.3 3.2 4.8 2.1 3.7 2.1 7.9 4.0 7.1 6.5 4.0 3.8 4.3 2.8 4.8 2.3 3.6 2.0 8.8 4.0 3.5 6.9 3.6 3.5 3.9 2.6 4.7 1.9 3.7 2.3 9.4 4.0 3.6 6.5 3.6 3.4 4.0 3.2 4.8 2.1 3.6 2.2 8.9 4.3 2.2 6.8 4.2 4.2 4.3 2.8 5.0 2.3 4.0 2.2 9.0 4.5 4.6 7.0 4.5 4.2 5.0 2.9 5.1 2.5 4.2 1.5 9.2 4.5 3.5 6.2 5.0 5.0 5.0 3.1 5.3 2.6 4.1 2.1 11.3 4.6 5.1 7.1 4.6 4.3 5.1 4.1 5.3 2.7 4.1 2.3 9.2 4.5 5.5 6.6 4.8 4.9 4.7 3.8 5.3 2.3 3.9 2.0 8.2 4.8 6.8 6.7 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.4 5.3 2.6 4.4 2.0 9.6 4.7 3.7 6.8 5.1 4.7 5.7 3.3 5.2 3.2 4.3 2.1 10.9 5.1 4.3 7.5 5.7 5.8 5.5 3.5 5.6 2.7 4.9 2.1 10.2 5.2 4.8 7.6 5.6 5.6 5.4 3.5 5.9 2.8 4.8 2.1 7.1 6.7 3.5 6.4 3.5 6.2 3.4 6.4 3.5 6.6 3.5 6.3 3.4 6.8 3.8 7.7 3.8 6.9 3.9 6.6 3.8 6.5 3.9 6.8 3.9 6.6 4.1 7.3 4.4 7.8 4.3 2.8 1.8 2.7 1.7 2.6 1.9 2.4 1.6 2.7 1.6 2.7 1.6 3.0 1.6 2.7 1.6 2.7 2.0 3.0 2.3 3.0 2.1 3.2 2.2 3.0 2.1 3.2 2.1 3.5 2.4 Part-time workers................................ In d u s try Nonagricultural wage and salary Construction.......................................... Manufacturing....................................... Transportation and public utilities........ Wholesale and retail trade................... Finance, insurance, and real estate.... Services................................................ Agricultural wage and salary workers...... E d u c a t io n a l a t t a i n m e n t 1 Less than a high school diploma.............. High school graduates, no college........... Some college, less than a bachelor’s degree..................................................... College graduates.................................... 1 Data refer to persons 25 years and over. TOO Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 7. Duration of unemployment, monthly data seasonally adjusted [Numbers in thousands] W eeks of u n e m p lo y m e n t 1999 2001 2000 A n n u a l a v e ra g e 2000 Sept O ct. N ov. D ec . Jan . Feb. M a r. A p r. M ay June J u ly Aug. S e p t. Less than 5 weeks......................... 5 to 14 weeks................................. 15 weeks and over......................... 15 to 26 weeks............................ 27 weeks and over...................... 2,568 1,832 1,480 755 725 2,543 1,803 1,309 665 644 2,498 1,750 1,247 618 629 2,510 1,755 1,311 702 609 2,531 1,796 1,317 713 604 2,440 1,852 1,326 675 651 2,613 1,977 1,371 731 640 2,797 1,669 1,490 793 697 2,674 1,992 1,517 814 703 2,958 1,977 1,499 759 740 2,679 2,028 1,484 852 632 2,809 2,084 1,540 804 737 2,612 2,150 1,587 935 652 3,004 2,100 1,817 982 835 2,764 2,361 1,884 1,089 795 Mean duration, in weeks................ Median duration, in weeks............. 13.4 6.4 12.6 5.9 12.1 5.3 12.4 6.1 12.4 6.1 12.6 6.1 12.6 5.9 12.9 6.0 13.0 6.5 12.6 5.8 12.2 6.5 13.0 6.2 12.5 6.7 13.3 6.5 13.1 7.4 8. Unemployed persons by reason for unemployment, monthly data seasonally adjusted [Numbers in thousands] R e a s o n fo r u n e m p lo y m e n t Job losers1..................................... On temporary layoff.................... Not on temporary layoff............... Job leavers..................................... New entrants.................................. 1 99 9 2000 2,622 848 1,774 783 2,005 469 2,492 842 1,650 775 1,957 431 2001 2000 A n n u a l a v e ra g e S e p t. 2,502 837 1,665 756 1,798 429 O c t. N ov. D ec . Jan . Feb. M ar. A p r. M ay 2,446 825 1,621 815 1,868 398 2,501 877 1,624 768 1,936 429 2,514 937 1,577 746 1,899 466 2,742 1,032 1,711 838 1,956 446 2,853 945 1,908 820 1,927 372 2,963 991 1,972 814 1,908 382 3,199 1,053 2,146 749 2,005 462 3,159 1,084 2,075 820 1,801 482 June 3,291 940 2,351 810 1,906 477 J u ly 3,252 1,003 2,249 774 1,912 436 Aug. 3,409 1,079 2,330 894 2,166 495 S e p t. 3,600 1,118 2,482 800 2,108 495 Percent of unemployed Not on temporary layoff............... Job leavers.................................... New entrants.................................. 44.6 14.4 30.2 13.3 34.1 8.0 44.1 14.9 29.2 13.7 34.6 7.6 45.6 15.3 30.4 13.8 32.8 7.8 44.3 14.9 29.3 14.7 33.8 7.2 44.4 15.6 28.8 13.6 34.4 7.6 44.7 16.7 28.0 13.3 33.8 8.3 45.8 17.2 28.6 14.0 32.7 7.4 47.8 15.8 32.0 13.7 32.3 6.2 48.8 16.3 32.5 13.4 31.4 6.4 49.9 16.4 33.5 11.7 31.3 7.2 50.4 17.3 33.1 13.1 28.8 7.7 50.8 14.5 36.3 12.5 29.4 7.4 51.0 15.7 35.3 12.1 30.0 6.8 49.0 15.5 33.5 12.8 31.1 7.1 51.5 16.0 35.5 11.5 30.2 6.8 1.9 .6 1.4 .3 1.8 .6 1.4 .3 1.8 .5 1.3 .3 1.7 .6 1.3 .3 1.8 .5 1.4 .3 1.8 .5 1.3 .3 1.9 .6 1.4 .3 2.0 .6 1.4 .3 2.1 .6 1.3 .3 2.3 .5 1.4 .3 2.2 .6 1.3 .3 2.3 .6 1.3 .3 2.3 .5 1.3 .3 2.4 .6 1.5 .4 2.5 .6 1.5 .3 November 2001 101 Percent of civilian labor force Job leavers..................................... New entrants.................................. 1 Includes persons who completed temporary jobs. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monthly Labor Review Current Labor Statistics: Labor Force Data 9. Unemployment rates by sex and age, monthly data seasonally adjusted [Civilian workers] S ex and age 2000 A n n u al a v e ra g e 1 99 9 2000 S e p t. O c t. 2001 N o v. D ec . J an . Feb. M ar. A p r. M ay June J u ly Aug. S e p t. Total, 16 years and over................. 16 to 24 years............................. 16 to 19 years.......................... 16 to 17 years....................... 18 to 19 years....................... 20 to 24 years.......................... 25 years and over........................ 25 to 54 years........................ 55 years and over................. 4.2 9.9 13.9 16.3 12.4 7.5 3.1 3.2 2.8 4.0 9.3 13.1 15.4 11.5 7.1 3.0 3.1 2.6 3.9 8.9 12.9 15.7 11.1 6.6 3.0 3.0 2.7 3.9 8.9 12.6 15.2 11.1 6.8 2.9 3.0 2.8 4.0 9.1 13.0 15.4 11.4 6.8 3.0 3.0 2.9 4.0 9.2 13.1 15.8 11.6 7.0 3.0 3.0 2.6 4.2 9.6 13.8 17.4 11.5 7.2 3.2 3.2 2.7 4.2 9.5 13.6 17.2 11.0 7.2 3.2 3.2 2.8 4.3 10.0 13.8 16.0 12.3 7.8 3.2 3.4 2.6 4.5 10.4 14.2 .16.7 12.6 8.3 3.4 3.5 2.8 4.4 9.9 13.6 15.5 12.2 7.9 3.3 3.5 2.6 4.5 10.4 14.3 16.0 13.1 8.2 3.5 3.6 2.8 4.5 10.1 14.8 19.3 11.8 7.5 3.4 3.6 2.8 4.9 11.5 16.1 19.1 14.7 9.0 3.7 3.9 3.0 4.9 10.7 14.7 16.2 13.9 8.5 3.8 3.9 3.3 Men, 16 years and over................ 16 to 24 years............................ 16 to 19 years........................ 16 to 17 years..................... 18 to 19 years..................... 20 to 24 years........................ 25 years and over..................... 25 to 54 years..................... 55 years and over............... 4.1 10.3 14.7 17.0 13.1 7.7 3.0 3.0 2.8 3.9 9.7 14.0 16.8 12.2 7.3 2.8 2.9 2.7 3.9 9.5 13.7 17.5 11.2 7.1 2.8 2.9 2.6 3.9 9.4 13.4 17.6 10.7 7.3 2.9 2.9 2.8 4.0 9.5 13.6 17.5 11.3 7.3 3.0 2.9 2.9 4.0 9.7 14.1 18.4 11.7 7.2 3.0 2.9 2.8 4.3 10.3 15.0 20.5 11.8 7.6 3.1 3.1 3.0 4.2 10.8 15.5 18.5 13.1 8.2 3.0 3.0 2.9 4.4 10.9 13.8 15.6 12.7 9.3 3.2 3.3 2.9 4.6 10.9 15.1 18.7 12.8 8.7 3.5 3.5 2.9 4.5 11.0 15.3 17.4 13.9 8.7 3.3 3.5 2.9 4.7 11.8 15.9 18.0 14.5 9.5 3.4 3.5 3.0 4.5 10.4 15.1 19.0 13.0 7.9 3.5 3.6 3.0 5.1 12.4 17.9 22.7 15.4 9.5 3.7 3.9 3.3 4.9 11.3 15.8 18.3 14.3 8.9 3.7 3.8 3.3 Women, 16 years and over........... 16 to 24 years............................ 16 to 19 years........................ 16 to 17 years..................... 18 to 19 years..................... 20 to 24 years........................ 25 years and over..................... 25 to 54 years..................... 4.3 9.5 13.2 15.5 11.6 7.2 3.3 3.4 4.1 8.9 12.1 14.0 10.8 7.0 3.2 3.3 4.0 8.2 12.0 13.8 11.0 6.0 3.2 3.2 3.9 8.4 11.9 12.8 11.6 6.3 3.0 3.1 4.0 8.6 12.3 13.4 11.5 6.3 3.1 3.2 4.1 8.8 12.4 14.1 11.3 6.7 3.2 3.4 4.2 8.1 11.6 15.7 8.7 6.1 3.4 3.5 4.2 8.9 13.7 16.4 11.9 6.3 3.2 3.5 4.4 9.8 13.3 14.5 12.4 7.8 3.3 3.4 4.3 8.8 11.8 13.6 10.4 7.1 3.4 3.6 4.4 8.9 12.7 14.0 11.6 6.7 3.5 3.8 4.5 9.7 14.4 19.6 10.6 7.1 3.4 3.6 4.8 10.4 14.2 15.5 13.9 8.4 3.7 3.8 5.0 10.1 13.6 13.9 13.5 8.2 3.9 4.0 55 years and over............... 2.8 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.7 4.0 8.7 12.1 13.2 11.6 6.7 3.0 3.1 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.2 2.6 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.7 3.3 102 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 10. Unemployment rates by State, seasonally adjusted S ta te A ug. J u ly Aug. 2000 2001p 2001p S ta te A ug. J u ly Aug. 2000 2001p 2001p 4.6 6.5 3.8 4.4 5.0 4.5 6.2 3.9 4.6 5.0 4.7 6.7 4.2 4.6 5.2 3.5 4.9 3.0 3.8 2.9 4.0 4.1 2.9 4.7 3.4 4.0 4.5 3.0 4.8 3.8 2.8 2.2 4.2 5.8 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.3 6.3 4.2 3.6 3.6 3.4 6.4 4.2 3.8 4.9 4.5 3.8 3.1 4.0 5.7 4.4 5.3 2.6 4.3 5.4 4.7 5.0 2.7 3.7 4.1 4.8 4.4 3.2 3.6 4.5 5.0 5.3 4.0 3.7 4.2 4.6 5.5 4.2 4.1 3.1 4.9 4.2 4.2 4.2 3.2 6.1 4.6 5.3 4.2 3.3 6.3 4.9 4.5 2.6 3.9 4.1 5.5 3.3 3.1 3.7 5.3 5.2 3.8 3.1 3.8 5.1 4.6 4.0 Utah.......................................................... 3.9 2.2 4.0 4.2 3.2 5.0 2.9 4.1 4.8 3.9 5.1 2.8 4.1 4.9 3.8 4.0 2.6 3.7 3.3 5.4 3.8 3.8 4.6 3.5 4.6 3.9 3.9 5.1 3.6 4.8 4.0 Wyoming................................................... 2.9 2.2 5.3 5.3 3.7 3.9 3.2 2.8 5.8 5.0 4.4 3.8 3.3 2.9 6.0 5.0 4.3 3.8 p= preliminary 11. Employment of workers on nonfarm payrolls by State, seasonally adjusted [In thousands] Aug. July Aug. 2000 2001p 2001p Alabama...................................... Alaska.......................................... Arizona........................................ Arkansas..................................... California..................................... 1,939.8 285.1 2,266.0 1,163.8 14,612.1 1,916.8 289.1 2,267.0 1,164.8 14,794.5 1,918.2 290.5 2,271.6 1,166.1 14,806.7 Colorado..................................... Connecticut................................. District of Columbia..................... Florida......................................... 2,235.7 1,696.4 421.2 655.0 7,098.3 2,267.1 1,698.5 423.7 654.4 7,310.9 2,268.6 1,692.7 423.5 661.4 7,326.5 Georgia....................................... Hawaii.......................................... Idaho........................................... Illinois.......................................... Indiana......................................... 4,017.9 552.0 565.3 6,041.1 3,015.0 4,032.6 557.6 570.7 6,028.5 2,981.9 4,011.0 556.6 569.5 6,012.8 2,981.5 Iowa............................................ Kansas......................................... Kentucky..................................... Maine............ ............................. 1,472.2 1,345.3 1,825.8 1,935.2 605.3 1,485.6 1,369.2 1,830.4 1,946.4 614.5 1,489.6 1,372.5 1,832.9 1,945.6 610.5 Maryland..................................... Massachusetts............................ Michigan...................................... Minnesota................................... Mississippi.................................. 2,436.2 3,319.6 4,685.5 2,676.9 1,160.8 2,459.3 3,364.6 4,677.5 2,687.2 1,144.4 2,472.9 3,358.6 4,662.7 2,684.0 1,139.5 State State Aug. July Aug. 2000 2001p 2001p 2,767.3 391.3 914.9 1,035.1 622.9 2,727.1 396.3 915.7 1,068.5 625.2 2,723.6 396.5 913.8 1,069.4 623.5 North Dakota.............................. 3,998.5 746.4 8,610.0 3,979.5 326.8 4,021.0 756.5 8,717.0 3,990.6 324.7 4,014.4 759.8 8,710.4 4,011.5 326.4 Oregon......................................... Pennsylvania.............................. Rhode Island............................... 5,645.5 1,494.8 1,610.8 5,704.5 474.7 5,657.6 1,507.2 1,590.8 5,727.3 479.8 5,634.2 1,586.1 5,719.1 78.6 1,881.5 South Carolina............................ South Dakota............................... Tennessee................................... Texas........................................... Utah............................................ 1,883.7 378.0 2,750.5 9,473.9 1,081.2 1,881.5 380.2 2,762.1 9,639.3 1,092.2 382.1 2,759.5 9,676.7 1,093.7 299.1 Virginia......................................... Washington................................. West Virginia............................... Wisconsin.................................... Wyoming..................................... 298.3 3,519.3 2,726.7 730.7 2,843.8 239.7 299.3 3,570.0 2,742.8 734.9 2,840.7 249.0 3,577.0 2,731.7 739.3 2,837.4 247.8 249.0 Montana...................................... Nebraska..................................... New Jersey................................. p = preliminary NOTE: Some data in this table may differ from data published elsewhere because of the continual updating of the data base. Monthly Labor Review November 2001 103 Current Labor Statistics: 12. Labor Force Data Employment of workers on nonfarm payrolls by industry, monthly data seasonally adjusted [In thousands]_____________ In dustry A nnua average 1999 2000 2000 Sept. O ct. 2001 Nov Dec. Jan. Feb. M ar. A pr. M ay June Ju ly A u g .p S ep t.p t o t a l ...................................... 128,916 131,739 132,046 132,145 132,279 132,367 132,428 132,595 132,654 132,489 132,530 132,431 132,449 132,395 132,182 PRIVATE SECTOR............... . 108,709 111,079 111,463 111,564 111,689 111,753 111,799 111,915 111,943 111,742 111,760 111,603 111,517 111,390 111,179 GOODS-PRODUCING............... 25,507 25,709 25,696 25,713 25,711 25,688 25,633 25,627 25,602 25,421 25,324 25,186 25,122 24,963 24,873 Mining'.................................. 539 543 547 551 548 548 550 555 557 560 564 565 567 569 568 Metal mining........................... 44 41 40 40 40 41 39 39 38 37 37 35 34 35 35 Oil and gas extraction............ . 297 311 316 320 319 320 325 328 331 335 339 340 341 342 342 Nonmetallic minerals, except fuels......................... 113 114 115 115 114 112 111 113 113 113 112 112 113 112 111 Construction........................... 6,415 6,698 6,728 6,758 6,781 6,791 6,826 6,880 6,929 6,852 6,881 6,864 6,867 6,861 6,862 General building contractors.... 1,458 1,528 1,538 1,549 1,548 1,543 1,538 1,555 1,552 1,548 1,556 1,551 1,554 1,557 1,565 Heavy construction, except building................................ 874 901 900 904 909 913 921 930 938 915 923 925 935 932 933 Special trades contractors....... 4,084 4,269 4,290 4,305 4,324 4,335 4,367 4,395 4,439 4,389 4,402 4,388 4,378 4,372 4,364 Manufacturing......................... 18,552 18,469 18,421 18,404 18,382 18,349 18,257 18,192 18,116 18,009 17,879 17,757 17,688 17,533 17,443 Production workers........... 12,747 12,628 12,559 12,545 12,511 12,466 12,394 12,323 12,254 12,166 12,066 11,956 11,900 11,782 11,705 Durable goods...................... 11,111 11,138 11,129 11,126 11,120 11,102 11,031 10,997 10,941 10,870 10,778 10,692 10,624 10,523 10,457 Production workers........... 7,596 7,591 7,568 7,560 7,544 7,517 7,462 7,415 7,358 7,308 7,235 7,157 7,102 7,022 6,972 Lumber and wood products.... 834 832 826 821 817 811 806 799 799 800 797 798 797 793 794 Furniture and fixtures............ 548 558 560 559 557 555 552 549 548 543 540 532 531 519 513 Stone, clay, and glass products............................. 566 579 579 577 577 577 579 578 578 577 574 572 569 568 566 Primary metal industries........ 699 698 695 695 691 686 681 679 671 667 660 654 648 643 639 Fabricated metal products..... 1,521 1,537 1,540 1,536 1,537 1,536 1,526 1’,514 1,509 1,503 1,488 1,478 1,478 1,468 1,461 Industrial machinery and equipment.......................... 2,136 2,120 2,121 2,123 2,122 2,119 2,117 2,105 2,084 2,072 2,054 2,031 2,007 1,980 1,961 Computer and office equipment........................ 368 361 364 365 365 366 369 370 369 367 366 357 353 348 342 Electronic and other electrical equipment.......................... 1,672 1,719 1,736 1,738 1,737 1,738 1,735 1,726 1,715 1,684 1,656 1,624 1,589 1,565 1,548 Electronic components and accessories...................... . 641 682 698 704 708 710 714 711 702 686 670 650 634 618 610 Transportation equipment...... 1,888 1,849 1,822 1,822 1,822 1,817 1,772 1,786 1,775 1,768 1,757 1,749 1,752 1,750 1,734 Motor vehicles and equipment.......................... 1,018 1,013 1,005 994 995 990 952 967 956 950 939 931 936 931 924 Aircraft and parts................. 496 465 464 463 462 464 462 464 465 464 465 465 466 465 466 Instruments and related products............................. 855 852 858 861 865 867 870 871 871 866 865 865 865 858 852 Miscellaneous manufacturing industries............................. 391 394 392 394 395 396 393 390 391 390 387 389 388 379 380 Nondurable goods................. 7,441 7,331 7,292 7,278 7,262 7,647 7,226 7,195 7,175 7,139 7,101 7,065 7,064 7,010 6,986 Production workers............ 5,150 5,038 4,991 4,985 4,967 4,949 4,932 4,908 4,896 4,858 4,831 4,799 4,798 4,760 4,733 Food and kindred products..... 1,682 1,684 1,674 1,678 1,679 1,682 1,684 1,686 1,687 1,687 1,684 1,685 1,680 1,674 1,678 Tobacco products.................. 37 34 33 32 33 32 32 31 32 32 33 33 33 35 33 Textile mill products............... 559 528 523 518 514 510 505 496 494 489 480 472 471 465 460 Apparel and other textile products.............................. 690 633 620 616 611 604 599 595 590 581 579 567 571 554 551 Paper and allied products....... 668 657 655 655 654 652 651 645 642 641 639 635 632 628 628 Printing and publishing........... 1,bb2 1,547 1,547 1,544 1,540 1,539 1,534 1,529 1,524 1,512 1,502 1,495 1,489 1,483 1,472 Chemicals and allied products. 1,035 1,038 1,037 1,038 1,038 1,039 1,039 1,039 1,039 1,036 1,033 1,033 1,039 1,035 1,032 Petroleum and coal products... 132 127 127 126 127 127 127 127 126 128 127 128 128 127 129 Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products.................. 1,006 1,011 1,006 1,002 997 993 987 979 973 967 959 953 957 947 942 Leather and leather products... 77 71 70 69 69 69 68 68 68 66 65 64 64 62 61 SERVICE-PRODUCING.............. 103,409 106,050 106,350 106,432 106,568 106,679 106,795 106,968 107,052 107,068 107,206 107,245 107,327 107,432 107,309 Transportation and public utilities................................. 6,834 7,019 7,062 7,076 7,093 7,108 7,106 7,123 7,127 7,119 7,130 7,118 7,108 7,082 7,062 Transportation......................... 4,411 4,529 4,553 4,559 4,573 4,583 4,580 4,591 4,591 4,576 4,584 4,571 4,561 4,539 4,524 Railroad transportation........... 235 236 235 234 235 232 229 231 230 230 230 227 226 226 226 Local and interurban passenger transit................. 478 476 478 477 478 478 479 480 480 477 483 483 485 486 486 Trucking and warehousing..... 1,810 1,856 1,861 1,861 1,864 1,866 1,868 1,870 1,872 1,864 1,867 1,867 1,863 1,844 1,836 Water transportation.............. 186 196 199 200 200 200 201 200 201 202 203 201 203 203 205 Transportation by air.............. 1,227 1,281 1,291 1,298 1,306 1,316 1,312 1,318 1,316 1,313 1,315 1,310 1,304 1,303 1,295 Pipelines, except natural gas... 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 Transportation services......... 463 471 475 475 476 477 477 478 479 476 472 469 466 463 462 Communications and public utilities................................... 2,423 2,490 2,509 2,517 2,520 2,525 2,526 2,532 2,536 2,543 2,546 2,547 2,547 2,543 2,538 Communications.................... 1,560 1,639 1,660 1,668 1,672 1,678 1,679 1,685 1,690 1,696 1,699 1,700 1,700 1,695 1,692 Electric, gas, and sanitary services.............................. 863 851 849 849 848 847 847 847 846 847 847 847 847 848 846 Wholesale trade....................... 6,911 7,024 7,042 7,059 7,070 7,068 7,067 7,064 7,066 7,053 7,038 7,022 7,017 7,010 6,988 Retail trade............................... 22,848 23,307 23,371 23,380 23,395 23,406 23,415 23,472 23,457 23,530 23,546 23,561 23,606 23,583 23,522 Building materials and garden supplies................................ 988 1,016 1,012 1,012 1,011 1,010 1,007 1,007 1,006 999 1,006 1,014 1,008 1,014 1,014 General merchandise stores..... 2,798 2,837 2,834 2,829 2,835 2,822 2,789 2,807 2,797 2,804 2,821 2,818 2,810 2,800 2,794 Department stores................. 2,459 2,491 2,487 2,481 2,492 2,480 2,448 2,462 2,451 I 2,459 2,473 2,471 2,458 I 2,449 2,445 See footnotes at end of table. Monthly Labor Review Digitized for 104 FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 12. Continued—Employment of workers on nonfarm payrolls by industry, monthly data seasonally adjusted [In thousands] Industry A nnual average 1999 Food stores............................. Automotive dealers and service stations..................... New and used car dealers...... Apparel and accessory stores... Furniture and home furnishings stores................................... Eating and drinking places....... Miscellaneous retail establishments..................... 2000 2000 Sept. Oct. 2001 Nov. Dec. Jan. Mar. Feb. Apr. M ay June July A ug.p S ep t.p 3,497 3,521 3,520 3,528 3,527 3,532 3,538 3,548 3,550 3,562 3,553 3,544 3,536 3,531 3,532 2,368 1,080 1,171 2,412 1,114 1,193 2,420 1,120 1,202 2,426 1,122 1,202 2,426 1,123 1,208 2,425 1,123 1,214 2,424 1,124 1,221 2,424 1,124 1,227 2,420 1,124 1,228 2,421 1,122 1,226 2,428 1,126 1,231 2,431 1,128 1,227 2,435 1,131 1,219 2,441 1,133 1,224 2,434 1,134 1,220 1,087 7,961 1,134 8,114 1,138 8,138 1,142 8,137 1,144 8,142 1,148 8,149 1,147 8,157 1,146 8,171 1,147 8,158 1,140 8,213 1,136 8,216 1,136 8,241 1,137 8,310 1,137 8,280 1,138 8,237 2,978 3,080 3,098 3,105 3,103 3,106 3,132 3,142 3,151 3,165 3,155 3,150 3,151 3,156 3,153 7,555 3,688 2,056 1,468 254 709 7,560 3,710 2,029 1,430 253 681 7,556 3,718 2,024 1,524 253 677 7,569 3,725 2,023 1,421 253 678 7,575 3,729 2,023 1,420 253 678 7,582 3,735 2,025 1,420 253 677 7,594 3,738 2,024 1,418 253 678 7,609 3,748 2,025 1,417 254 683 7,618 3,755 2,028 1,418 254 686 7,626 3,761 2,032 1,421 255 691 7,644 3,770 2,037 1,426 255 697 7,631 3,767 2,041 1,428 256 699 7,618 3,755 2,039 1,426 255 703 7,623 3,758 2,037 1,423 255 709 7,628 3,755 2,038 1,424 256 706 689 748 762 767 770 774 777 781 781 780 776 766 755 755 754 234 2,368 1,610 251 2,346 1,589 255 2,335 1,580 257 2,337 1,580 248 2,340 1,583 259 2,339 1,582 259 2,346 1,588 259 2,351 1,592 260 2,353 1,593 258 2,356 1,596 260 2,358 1,598 261 2,356 1,598 258 2,357 1,599 257 2,357 1,598 257 2,361 1,600 758 1,500 757 1,504 755 1,503 757 1,507 757 1,506 757 1,508 758 1,510 759 1,510 760 1,510 760 1,509 760 1,516 758 1,508 758 1,506 759 1,508 761 1,512 39,055 766 1,848 1,226 9,300 983 3,616 3,248 40,460 801 1,912 1,251 9,858 994 3,887 3,487 40,736 804 1,924 1,257 9,965 995 3,947 3,547 40,767 808 1,927 1,259 9,939 994 3,890 3,465 40,845 811 1,939 1,261 9,933 998 3,869 3,461 40,901 813 1,946 1,265 9,893 1,002 3,816 3,404 40,984 818 1,952 1,261 9,888 1,007 3,779 3,372 41,020 821 1,957 1,261 9,851 1,007 3,731 3,339 41,073 828 1,960 1,265 9,822 1,007 3,694 3,293 40,993 824 1,944 1,267 9,729 1,009 3,600 3,202 41,078 834 1,935 1,277 9,702 1,013 3,590 3,198 41,085 833 1,920 1,279 9,666 1,008 3,556 3,161 41,046 834 1,922 1,281 9,592 998 3,517 3,127 41,129 837 1,912 1,284 9,592 997 3,521 3,113 41,106 839 1,905 1,278 9,588 994 3,508 3,111 1,875 2,095 2,124 2,135 2,152 2,164 2,176 2,186 2,195 2,199 2,200 2,205 2,202 2,194 2,199 1,196 372 599 1,248 366 594 1,260 366 590 1,266 366 588 1,270 366 593 1,278 365 597 1,291 365 600 1,291 365 600 1,298 364 605 1,300 364 601 1,309 363 587 1,303 361 602 1,312 360 595 1,307 362 589 1,306 363 592 F in a n c e , in s u ra n c e , a n d real estate................................ Depository institutions........... Commercial banks............... Nondepository institutions...... Security and commodity brokers............................... Holding and other investment Insurance................................ Insurance carriers.................. Insurance agents, brokers, Real estate.............................. Services1................................ Agricultural services................ Hotels and other lodging places Personal services.................... Business services.................... Services to buildings.............. Personnel supply services...... Help supply services............ Computer and data processing services............. Auto repair services and parking.......................... Miscellaneous repair services... Amusement and recreation Health services........................ Offices and clinics of medical doctors................................ Nursing and personal care facilities............................... Hospitals............................... Home health care services..... Legal services......................... Educational services................ Social services........................ Residential care..................... Museums and botanical and zoological gardens............... Membership organizations....... Engineering and management 1,651 1,728 1,738 1,747 1,755 1,759 1,769 1,772 1,775 1,764 1,787 1,768 1,772 1,777 1,764 10,036 10,197 10,131 10,146 10,164 10,184 10,211 10,236 10,259 10,280 10,296 10,329 10,354 10,384 10,414 1,875 1,924 1,933 1,938 1,941 1,948 1,953 1,958 1,962 1,967 1,973 1,981 1,983 1,990 1,993 1,786 3,974 636 996 2,267 2,783 680 771 1,795 3,990 643 1,009 2,325 2,903 712 806 1,797 4,001 645 1,013 2,344 2,928 719 813 1,799 4,005 646 1,014 2,329 2,950 724 817 1,800 4,016 644 1,013 2,338 2,958 727 820 1,803 4,025 642 1,015 2,357 2,977 729 823 1,806 4,035 646 1,017 2,363 2,985 732 827 1,808 4,045 645 1,020 2,375 2,997 734 829 1,811 4,055 648 1,022 2,384 3,009 739 831 1,816 4,062 646 1,021 2,388 3,023 743 835 1,814 4,071 645 1,027 2,431 3,039 745 842 1,821 4,086 648 1,027 2,426 3,056 756 845 1,823 4,098 647 1,026 2,432 3,048 760 847 1,825 4,114 653 1,028 2,452 3,076 765 848 1,831 4,127 656 1,031 2,446 3,081 754 850 99 2,436 106 2,475 107 2,482 107 2,482 108 2,486 108 2,487 109 2,487 110 2,487 110 2,489 109 2,489 110 2,496 111 2,501 111 2,493 111 2,503 111 2,513 3,256 3,419 3,455 3,467 3,478 3,490 3,496 3,504 3,510 3,517 3,512 3,529 3,540 3,544 3,529 1,067 Engineering and architectural Management and public relations............................. Federal, except Postal Service.............................. Local....................................... Other local government......... 957 1,017 1,030 1,034 1,035 1,040 1,046 1,050 1,052 1,053 1,057 1,059 1,064 1,067 1,031 1,090 1,102 1,108 1,113 1,116 1,119 1,123 1,125 1,124 1,121 1,124 1,119 1,123 1,121 20,206 2,669 20,681 2,777 20,583 2,623 20,581 2,622 20,590 2,620 20,614 2,613 20,629 2,613 20,680 2,615 20,711 2,613 20,747 2,615 20,770 2,612 20,828 2,621 20,932 2,626 21,005 2,622 21,003 2,625 1,796 4,709 1,983 2,726 12,829 7,289 5,540 1,917 4,785 2,032 2,753 13,119 7,440 5,679 1,762 4,813 2,051 2,762 13,147 7,439 5,708 1,762 4,798 2,035 2,763 13,161 7,445 5,716 1,761 4,798 2,033 2,765 13,172 7,449 5,723 1,754 4,809 2,037 2,772 13,192 7,457 5,735 1,755 4,800 2,028 2,772 13,216 7,468 5,748 1,756 4,825 2,048 2,777 13,240 7,479 5,761 1,754 4,836 2,055 2,781 13,262 7,492 5,770 1,756 4,847 2,065 2,782 13,285 7,495 5,790 1,754 4,854 2,066 2,788 13,304 7,512 5,792 1,772 4,881 2,089 2,792 13,326 7,515 5,811 1,772 4,909 2,117 2,792 13,397 7,575 5,822 1,774 4,913 2,122 2,791 13,470 7,650 5,820 1,776 4,940 2,140 2,800 13,438 7,618 5,820 1 Includes other industries not shown separately. p« preliminary. NOTE: See "Notes on the data" for a descrlDtion of the most recent benchmark revision. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monthly Labor Review November 2001 105 Current Labor Statistics: 13. Labor Force Data Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls, by industry, monthly data seasonally adjusted In d u s tr y A n n u al a v e ra g e 1 999 2000 2000 S e p t. O ct. 2001 N ov. D ec . J an . F eb . M ar. A p r. M ay June J u ly A u g .p S e p t.p PRIVATE SECTOR............................... 34.5 34.5 34.4 34.4 34.3 34.2 34.4 34.3 34.3 34.2 34.2 34.2 34.2 34.0 34.1 GOODS-PRODUCING............................... 41.0 41.0 40.7 40.8 40.6 40.1 40.5 40.3 40.5 40.6 40.5 40.4 40.5 40.3 40.2 MINING..................................................... 43.2 43.1 43.0 43.1 43.0 42.5 43.1 43.2 43.8 44.0 43.9 43.3 43.3 43.4 43.7 MANUFACTURING................................. 41.7 4.6 41.6 4.6 41.4 4.4 41.4 4.5 41.2 4.3 40.6 4.1 41.0 4.2 40.9 3.9 41.0 4.1 4T.0 3.9 40.7 3.9 40.7 3.9 40.8 4.0 40.7 4.1 40.6 3.9 42.2 4.8 41.1 40.3 43.4 44.5 42.1 4.7 41.0 40.0 43.1 44.9 41.8 4.5 40.8 39.7 42.9 44.7 41.9 4.6 40.9 39.7 43.2 44.4 41.6 4.4 40.8 39.4 43.0 44.4 41.0 4.1 40.2 38.8 42.3 43.5 41.3 4.1 39.8 39.2 43.0 43.8 41.1 3.9 40.1 39.1 42.8 43.2 41.3 4.0 40.3 39.1 43.7 43.4 41.3 3.9 40.1 39.3 43.2 44.3 41.0 3.9 40.6 38.6 43.9 43.5 40.9 3.9 40.4 38.4 44.0 43.9 41.2 4.0 41.1 39.7 44.0 44.1 41.1 4.0 40.9 39.7 43.9 43.7 40.9 4.1 41.4 39.0 44.3 43.9 Fabricated metal products..................... 45.2 42.4 46.0 42.6 45.8 42.2 45.1 42.2 45.2 42.1 44.7 41.3 44.7 41.7 44.4 41.7 44.4 41.9 45.4 42.0 44.6 41.4 45.1 41.2 44.7 41.6 44.6 41.5 45.5 41.1 Industrial m achinery and equipm ent... 42.1 42.2 41.9 42.0 41.7 41.1 41.5 41.0 41.2 41.3 40.7 40.4 40.8 40.2 40.3 Motor vehicles and equipm ent........... 41.2 43.8 45.0 41.1 43.4 44.4 40.7 42.9 43.8 40.7 43.0 43.9 40.5 42.5 43.2 40.3 41.5 41.5 40.3 42.0 42.1 40.3 42.0 42.0 40.1 42.0 42.3 39.8 42.4 43.3 39.1 42.4 43.6 39.3 41.9 43.0 38.9 42.2 43.0 39.1 42.8 44.6 39.0 41.3 42.1 I n s t r u m e n t s a n d r e l a t e d p r o d u c t s ......... 4 1.3 4 1.3 41.1 41.2 4 1.2 4 0.7 41.0 41.1 41.0 4 1.0 4 1.0 4 0.8 4 0.8 4 0 .4 4 1.3 Miscellaneous m anufacturing............... 39.8 39.0 38.5 38.6 38.4 38.1 38.3 38.2 38.2 38.2 37.9 38.4 38.4 38.2 37.6 Nondurable goods................................ 40.9 4.4 41.8 40.9 37.5 43.4 40.8 4.4 41.7 41.2 37.8 42.5 40.7 4.3 41.6 40.8 37.6 42.4 40.6 4.3 41.5 40.6 37.5 42.3 40.5 4.2 41.4 40.5 37.6 42.2 40.1 4.1 40.9 40.5 37.2 41.7 40.6 4.3 41.3 40.7 37.6 41.9 40.4 4.0 41.1 40.4 37.6 41.7 40.5 4.1 41.2 40.5 37.5 41.8 40.5 3.9 41.3 40.3 38.0 42.0 40.3 4.0 41.1 40.3 37.8 41.6 40.4 3.9 41.2 40.4 37.5 41.7 40.3 4.0 40.9 39.7 37.7 41.9 40.1 4.1 41.1 39.8 36.9 41.2 40.2 4.1 40.9 39.9 36.7 41.7 38.1 43.0 38.3 42.5 38.2 42.4 38.2 42.3 38.2 42.1 37.0 42.1 38.4 42.6 38.4 42.3 38.6 42.3 38.2 42.6 38.0 42.4 38.0 42.2 38.2 42.7 38.0 42.1 38.0 42.0 Leather and leather products................ 41.7 37.4 41.4 37.5 41.3 37.3 41.2 37.4 41.0 37.3 40.4 36.8 41.0 36.9 40.9 36.4 41.0 36.1 40.8 36.6 40.6 35.9 40.7 36.2 40.6 35.7 40.5 36.4 40.9 36.1 SERVICE-PRODUCING............................. 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.7 32.9 32.8 32.8 32.7 32.7 32.8 32.6 32.6 32.6 O vertim e hours......................................... Durable goods...................................... Overtim e hours........................................ Lumber and wood products................... Furniture and fixtures............................... Stone, clay, and glass products........... Primary metal industries......................... Blast furnaces and basic steel products................................................... Electronic and other electrical equipm ent................................................ Transportation equipm ent...................... Overtim e hours........................................ Food and kindred products.................... Textile mill products.................................. Apparel and other textile products...... Paper and allied products...................... Printing and publishing........................... Chem icals and allied products.............. Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products..................................... TRANSPORTATION AND PUBLIC UTILITIES.............................. 38.7 38.6 38.5 38.6 38.6 38.7 38.7 38.5 38.3 38.1 38.1 38.1 37.8 37.8 37.5 WHOLESALE TRADE............................. 38.3 38.5 38.4 38.4 38.4 38.3 38.3 38.1 38.3 38.2 38.2 38.3 38.2 38.3 38.5 RETAIL TRADE........................................ 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.7 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 p = preliminary. NOTE: S ee "Notes on the data" for a description of the most recent benchmark revision. 106 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 14. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls, by industry, seasonally adjusted A n n u a l a v e ra g e 2000 In d u s try 2001 1 999 2000 S e p t. O ct. N o v. D ec . Jan . Feb. M a r. A p r. M ay June J u ly $13.24 $13.75 $13.84 $13.90 $13.97 $14.03 $14.03 $14.11 $14.17 $14.21 $14.24 $14.31 $14.34 14.83 15.40 15.47 15.57 15.63 15.65 15.67 15.74 15.79 15.78 15.86 15.90 15.93 16.01 16.04 Mining................................................. Construction........................................ Manufacturing..................................... Excluding overtime.......................... 17.05 17.19 13.90 13.17 17.24 17.88 14.38 13.62 17.24 17.97 14.44 13.73 17.30 18.02 14.54 13.80 17.38 18.16 14.57 13.84 17.43 18.17 14.58 13.88 17.49 18.28 14.54 13.83 17.52 18.30 14.63 13.94 17.55 18.33 14.66 13.96 17.53 18.15 14.72 14.04 17.54 18.22 14.78 14.09 17.73 18.28 14.81 14.13 17.74 18.26 14.86 14.18 17.69 18.35 14.93 14.24 17.65 18.36 14.96 14.30 S e r v i c e - p r o d u c i n g .......................................... 12.73 13.24 13.34 13.39 13.46 13.53 13.54 13.62 13.68 13.73 13.76 13.84 13.87 13.93 13.98 15.69 14.59 9.09 14.62 13.37 16.22 15.20 9.46 15.07 13.91 16.31 15.33 9.54 15.19 14.01 16.39 15.37 9.57 15.20 14.07 16.42 15.44 9.61 15.28 14.16 16.50 15.55 9.65 15.35 14.23 16.51 15.53 9.64 15.44 14.25 16.64 15.60 9.69 15.55 14.35 16.68 15.68 9.72 15.61 14.40 16.74 15.74 9.74 15.64 14.48 16.76 15.70 9.79 15.74 14.49 16.91 15.86 9.83 15.86 14.54 16.88 15.84 9.84 15.91 14.61 16.95 15.81 9.87 15.99 14.71 17.04 15.98 9.86 16.01 14.77 7.86 7.89 7.88 7.90 7.92 7.94 7.90 7.92 7.95 7.94 7.93 7.95 8.00 8.03 8.02 November 2001 107 P R IV A T E S E C T O R (in c u r r e n t d o lla r s ).. G o o d s - p r o d u c i n g ........................................... Transportation and public utilities...... Wholesale trade.................................. Retail trade......................................... Finance, insurance, and real estate.... Services.............................................. A u g .p S e p t.p $14.40 $14.45 P R IV A T E S E C T O R (in c o n s t a n t (1 9 8 2 ) d o l l a r s ) .................................................................... p = preliminary. NOTE: See "Notes on the data" for a description of the most recent benchmark revision. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monthly Labor Review Current Labor Statistics: Labor Force Data 15. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls, by industry A n n u a l a v e ra g e 2001 2000 In d u s tr y 1999 2000 S e p t. O c t. Nov. D ec. Jan. Feb. M a r. A p r. M ay June J u ly A u g .p S e p t.p $13.24 $13.75 $13.89 $13.97 $13.99 $14.04 $14.10 $14.16 $14.19 $14.27 $14.22 $14.22 $14.27 $14.28 $15 M I N I N G ...................................................................... 17.05 17.24 17.16 17.28 17.32 17.54 17.67 17.61 17.57 17.60 17.49 17.59 17.67 $17.53 $17.71 C O N S T R U C T I O N ................................................. 17.19 17.88 18.17 18.22 18.20 18.23 18.17 18.16 18.30 18.07 18.17 18.21 18.32 $18.43 $18.52 M A N U F A C T U R IN G 13 qn 14 3R 14 51 14 53 14 fin 14 fi7 14 fiQ 14 fi1 14 fifi 14 74 14 7fi 14 79 14 84 15.19 12.16 12.09 15.03 16.82 15.24 12.19 12.15 15.13 16.96 P R IV A T E S E C T O R ............................................. D u r a b le g o o d s ................................................... Lumber and wood products............... Furniture and fixtures......................... Stone, clay, and glass products......... Primary metal industries.................... Blast furnaces and basic steel products.......................................... Fabricated metal products................. Industrial machinery and equipment... Electronic and other electrical equipment........................................ Transportation equipment.................. Motor vehicles and equipment......... Instruments and related products...... N o n d u r a b l e g o o d s .......................................... Food and kindred products................ Textile mill products............................ Apparel and other textile products..... Paper and allied products.................. Chemicals and allied products........... Petroleum and coal products............. Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products.............................. Leather and leather products............. $ ifi m 14.36 11.51 11.29 13.97 15.80 14.82 11.93 11.73 14.53 16.42 14.96 12.07 11.88 14.77 16.54 14.99 12.09 11.86 14.75 16.48 15.05 12.07 11.90 14.76 16.58 15.11 12.12 11.93 14.72 16.65 14.98 12.13 11.92 14.65 16.66 15.03 12.08 12.03 14.68 16.58 15.09 12.08 12.04 14.79 16.63 15.14 12.13 12.07 14.96 16.90 15.25 12.32 12.24 15.12 17.11 $15.37 $12.37 $12.29 $15.17 $17.06 $15.48 $12.45 $12.35 $15.23 $17.26 18.84 13.50 19.82 13.87 19.83 13.99 19.84 14.01 19.71 14.03 19.88 14.09 20.16 13.99 20.05 14.03 20.00 14.08 20.37 14.11 20.26 14.23 20.39 14.25 20.48 14.27 20.63 20.88 15.03 15.55 15.69 15.66 15.67 15.81 15.73 15.74 15.77 15.74 15.79 15.82 15.90 15.96 16.05 13.43 17.79 18.10 14.08 11.26 13.80 18.45 18.79 14.43 11.63 13.91 18.77 19.12 14.58 11.66 14.00 18.88 19.26 14.62 11.75 14.04 19.05 19.43 14.64 11.82 14.17 19.00 19.31 14.80 11.94 14.07 18.57 18.77 14.6.1 11.98 14.16 18.68 18.91 14.60 11.98 14.26 18.76 19.02 14.73 12.05 14.39 18.77 19.13 14.80 12.04 14.38 18.83 19.18 14.75 12.10 14.51 18.90 19.25 14.81 12.07 14.59 18.80 19.04 14.98 12.12 14.72 19.08 19.04 15.00 12.23 ##### 19.30 19.39 15.08 12.37 13.21 12.11 19.87 10.81 8.92 15.88 13.69 12.50 21.57 11.16 9.30 16.25 13.80 12.59 22.13 11.30 9.36 16.37 13.81 12.59 22.47 11.23 9.37 16.43 13.89 12.69 21.85 11.27 9.33 16.50 13.97 12.71 21.76 11.27 9.37 16.61 12.97 12.70 21.34 11.32 9.39 16.53 13.97 12.65 21.49 11.27 9.36 16.54 13.97 12.68 22.63 11.31 9.46 16.56 14.12 12.79 22.59 11.30 9.44 16.74 14.07 12.83 23.01 11.29 9.39 16.72 14.11 12.86 23.17 11.32 9.45 16.90 14.23 12.93 23.63 11.37 9.40 16.99 14.17 12.87 21.90 11.39 9.44 16.87 14.32 12.97 21.70 11.39 9.56 17.12 13.96 17.42 21.43 14.40 18.15 22.00 14.56 18.32 22.06 14.50 18.27 22.14 14.56 18.35 22.23 14.66 18.47 22.31 14.59 18.34 22.10 14.64 18.41 22.21 14.69 18.33 21.83 14.75 18.64 22.09 14.75 18.52 21.83 14.74 18.55 21.78 14.83 18.69 22.02 14.87 18.54 22.20 15.01 18.86 22.27 12.40 9.71 12.85 10.18 12.96 10.31 12.98 10.33 13.10 10.32 13.20 10.37 13.24 10.51 13.31 10.35 13.19 10.46 13.33 10.37 13.30 10.26 13.30 10.30 13.38 10.25 13.44 10.35 13.51 10.30 15.69 16.22 16.31 16.38 16.43 16.53 16.56 16.68 16.65 16.78 16.70 16.83 16.89 16.97 17.09 15.58 15.86 15.66 15.77 15.88 15.75 16.03 9.92 T R A N S P O R T A T IO N A N D P U B L IC U T I L I T I E S ......................................... W H O L E S A L E T R A D E ....................................... 14.59 15.20 15.33 15.45 15.45 15.58 15.56 15.62 R E T A IL T R A D E .................................................... 9.09 9.46 9.58 9.59 9.61 9.65 9.69 9.72 9.74 9.78 9.78 9.77 9.77 9.79 A N D R E A L E S T A T E ....................................... 14.62 15.07 15.11 15.24 15.25 15.32 15.45 15.63 15.67 15.81 15.74 15.75 15.85 15.84 16.03 S E R V IC E S ............................................................... 13.37 13.91 14.00 14.11 14.20 14.33 14.39 14.47 14.48 14.58 14.46 14.39 14.46 14.46 14.78 F IN A N C E , IN S U R A N C E , p = preliminary. NOTE: See "Notes on the data" for a description of the most recent benchmark revision. 108 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 16. Average weekly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls, by industry In d u s tr y PRIVATE SECTOR Current dollars......................... Seasonally adjusted............. Constant (1982) dollars.......... A n n u a l a v e ra g e 2000 2001 1999 2000 S e p t. O c t. Nov. D ec. Jan. Feb. M a r. A p r. M ay June J u ly A u g .p S e p t.p $456.78 $474.38 271.25 272.16 $479.21 476.10 272.43 $484.76 478.16 275.28 $479.86 479.17 272.03 $480.17 479.83 272.51 $477.99 482.63 269.74 $481.44 483.97 270.62 $482.46 486.03 270.89 $486.61 485.98 271.70 $484.90 487.01 269.39 $489.17 489.40 271.46 $493.74 490.43 275.22 $491.23 489.94 273.82 $497.35 492.40 275.69 MINING...................................... 736.56 743.04 751.61 756.86 743.03 747.20 750.98 751.95 757.27 765.60 769.56 768.68 772.18 764.31 779.24 CONSTRUCTION........................ 672.13 702.68 728.62 732.44 704.34 694.56 692.28 682.82 702.52 695.70 728.62 728.40 740.13 739.04 737.10 MANUFACTURING Current dollars......................... Constant (1982) dollars........... 579.63 344.20 598.21 343.21 606.52 344.81 604.45 343.24 607.36 344.31 607.34 344.69 596.73 336.76 591.71 332.61 597.72 335.61 588.13 328.38 600.33 333.52 603.43 334.87 598.05 333.36 607.51 338.63 615.41 341.14 605.99 473.06 454.99 623.92 489.13 469.20 632.81 496.08 481.14 631.08 499.32 474.40 633.61 494.87 474.81 630.09 486.01 476.01 615.68 477.92 464.88 613.22 473.54 461.95 620.20 483.20 467.15 607.11 483.99 457.45 624.31 497.34 462.22 626.36 498.57 468.99 617.63 502.66 481.03 633.24 509.64 491.60 639.32 517.92 490.30 606.30 703.10 626.24 737.26 646.93 742.65 647.53 731.71 637.63 746.10 624.13 735.93 613.84 731.37 610.69 716.26 631.53 718.42 638.79 730.08 665.83 731.67 670.26 744.54 669.82 742.57 676.58 743.82 688.40 766.34 851.57 572.40 911.72 590.86 908.21 598.77 890.82 596.83 902.72 597.68 890.62 596.01 901.15 581.98 882.20 580.84 884.00 585.73 920.72 567.22 899.54 589.12 919.59 589.95 919.55 582.22 920.10 595.11 958.39 598.85 632.76 656.21 658.98 656.15 658.14 662.44 655.94 648.49 651.30 628.03 644.23 640.71 640.77 640.00 648.42 553.32 779.20 567.18 800.73 573.09 822.13 575.00 819.39 575.64 821.06 585.22 807.50 567.02 772.51 566.40 775.22 568.97 789.80 554.02 765.82 559.38 804.04 570.24 799.47 558.80 765.16 577.02 814.72 583.21 808.67 814.50 834.28 860.40 857.07 852.98 826.47 778.96 786.66 808.35 791.98 840.08 839.30 780.64 858.98 844.27 581.50 488.15 595.96 453.57 597.78 455.91 602.34 457.08 607.56 457.43 621.72 460.88 603.17 454.04 605.90 454.04 605.40 461.52 594.96 450.30 602.48 458.59 602.77 463.49 605.19 458.14 606.00 468.41 621.30 468.82 540.29 506.20 763.01 442.13 558.55 521.25 877.90 459.79 567.18 535.08 927.25 465.56 564.83 528.78 878.12 457.06 569.49 534.25 895.85 460.94 569.98 528.74 892.16 462.07 565.79 520.70 832.26 459.59 560.20 509.80 831.66 449.67 561.59 513.54 893.89 458.06 559.15 510.32 885.53 444.09 564.21 522.18 906.59 454.99 568.63 528.55 956.92 458.46 569.20 528.84 952.29 444.57 571.05 535.39 878.19 456.74 582.82 544.74 885.36 459.02 334.50 689.19 351.54 690.63 352.87 699.00 352.31 699.92 352.67 706.20 353.25 705.93 349.31 697.57 352.87 683.10 355.70 687.24 346.45 688.01 355.88 690.54 357.21 701.35 349.68 708.48 350.22 695.04 350.85 722.46 531.88 749.06 908.63 551.52 771.38 932.80 562.02 776.77 930.93 558.25 772.82 952.02 564.93 778.04 955.89 564.41 788.67 952.64 555.88 781.28 987.87 557.78 778.74 957.25 565.57 773.53 936.51 554.60 790.34 965.33 556.08 783.40 910.31 557.17 782.81 934.36 563.54 790.59 953.47 568.03 778.68 954.60 576.38 795.89 955.38 517.08 363.15 531.99 381.75 540.43 390.75 537.37 389.44 539.72 390.10 543.84 382.65 544.16 384.67 543.05 373.64 538.15 375.51 529.20 369.17 539.98 370.39 543.97 378.01 535.20 360.80 544.32 379.85 556.61 375.95 632.93 642.91 650.27 646.56 649.42 D u ra b le g o o d s D u ra b le g o o d s Lumber and wood products..... Furniture and fixtures............. Stone, clay, and glass products.............................. Primary metal industries......... Blast furnaces and basic steel products..................... Fabricated metal products...... Industrial machinery and equipment........................... Electronic and other electrical equipment........................... Transportation equipment........ Motor vehicles and equipment.......................... Instruments and related products.............................. Miscellaneous manufacturing.... N o n d u ra b le g o o d s .......................... Food and kindred products...... Tobacco products................... Textile mill products................ Apparel and other textile products.............................. Paper and allied products....... Printing and publishing............ Chemicals and allied products.. Petroleum and coal products... Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products................... Leather and leather products.... TRANSPORTATION AND PUBLIC UTILITIES.................... 607.20 626.09 631.20 638.82 632.56 638.06 632.59 637.18 362.70 641.00 WHOLESALE TRADE.................. 558.80 585.20 588.67 597.92 593.28 596.71 589.72 590.44 592.04 607.44 598.59 603.99 611.38 603.23 620.36 RETAIL TRADE............................ 263.61 273.39 275.90 277.15 274.85 278.89 273.26 276.05 276.62 281.66 280.69 283.33 288.22 286.85 285.70 565.78 570.15 581.70 571.82 588.30 469.95 471.99 478.63 474.29 483.31 FINANCE, INSURANCE, AND REAL ESTATE.................. 529.24 547.04 545.47 557.78 549.00 553.05 556.20 567.37 564.12 580.23 SERVICES................................... 435.86 454.86 455.00 464.22 462.92 467.16 I 464.80 471.72 472.05 476.77 p- preliminary. N o t e : See "Notes on the data" for a description of the most recent benchmark revision. Dash indicates data not available. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monthly Labor Review November 2001 109 Current Labor Statistics: 17. Labor Force Data Diffusion indexes of employment change, seasonally adjusted [In percent] T im e s p a n a n d y e a r Jan. Feb. M a r. A p r. M ay June J u ly A ug. S e p t. Nov O c t. D ec. Private nonfarm payrolls, 356 industries Over 1-month span: 1998.............................................. 1999.............................................. 2000.............................................. 2001.............................................. 63.2 55.1 55.7 53.7 56.2 59.6 59.3 50.4 59.3 52.8 61.0 55.8 60.2 57.2 54.2 45.0 58.9 58.2 47.7 46.6 57.1 54.2 60.5 44.3 55.4 57.1 57.8 45.5 58.4 54.4 55.1 43.5 54.8 55.2 52.0 45.3 55.0 57.9 54.8 58.2 59.9 55.1 56.4 56.8 54.2 Over 3-month span: 1998.............................................. 1999.............................................. 2000.............................................. 2001.............................................. 65.3 60.8 61.6 51.7 66.1 57.8 63.3 54.1 64.6 58.5 61.9 48.6 65.7 55.8 56.2 49.2 62.2 58.1 55.1 42.5 57.9 57.9 57.9 42.4 57.5 57.2 61.5 40.7 58.4 59.2 56.4 41.5 59.1 59.8 54.1 59.2 59.1 53.3 59.3 61.0 55.7 59.2 60.6 53.3 « Over 6-month span: 1998.............................................. 1999.............................................. 2000.............................................. 2001.............................................. 70.4 59.8 63.5 52.0 67.4 59.8 60.6 50.6 65.0 58.2 62.6 48.6 62.5 60.3 63.7 45.3 63.6 56.7 61.5 43.5 60.5 59.2 55.5 39.4 59.2 61.8 56.1 58.6 60.8 58.6 57.9 62.2 54.2 59.6 61.2 54.8 60.6 62.3 51.8 59.9 64.9 54.2 Over 12-month span: 1998.............................................. 1999.............................................. 2000.............................................. 2001.............................................. 69.7 61.2 62.5 49.6 67.6 60.2 63.0 47.5 67.4 58.2 61.8 44.8 66.0 60.8 59.5 64.0 60.8 58.4 62.7 61.6 56.8 61.9 62.2 55.7 62.0 61.3 56.5 60.9 63.9 54.2 59.3 63.0 53.4 _ 60.8 61.3 53.0 _ 58.8 60.9 51.8 _ _ _ _ Manufacturing payrolls, 139 industries Over 1-month span: 1998.............................................. 1999.............................................. 2000.............................................. 2001.............................................. 57.4 46.9 44.9 37.9 51.5 44.5 56.6 32.4 53.7 43.0 55.5 41.5 53.3 42.3 46.7 31.3 43.8 50.4 41.2 29.4 48.2 39.3 54.8 33.1 38.2 51.5 53.7 39.0 51.5 39.3 38.6 28.3 41.9 45.2 34.6 37.5 41.5 46.3 41.5 41.2 53.3 43.8 43.4 46.7 44.1 _ Over 3-month span: 1998.............................................. 1 9 9 9 .............................................. 2000.............................................. 2001.............................................. 59.6 41.2 50.0 28.3 59.6 39.0 54.0 29.4 55.9 38.2 52.9 24.6 50.4 41.8 42.3 26.5 46.7 40.8 43.0 22.4 37.9 45.2 48.5 24.6 41.5 39.0 48.2 21.3 41.5 45.2 33.6 22.4 41.9 40.8 28.7 38.2 44.9 30.5 _ 36.8 46.3 39.0 40.8 46.0 35.7 _ Over 6-month span: 1998.............................................. 1999.............................................. 2000............................................. 2001............................................. 63.2 36.0 51.5 26.8 54.4 38.2 44.5 25.4 50.4 37.5 48.5 19.9 40.4 41.2 55.1 20.6 44.5 36.8 43.8 20.6 40.1 39.7 34.9 16.2 37.5 43.0 33.5 36.4 41.5 34.6 34.9 46.0 30.1 40.1 40.4 29.4 37.1 46.3 25.0 34.2 51.5 27.9 Over 12-month span: 1998............................................. 1999............................................. 2000............................................. 2001............................................. 54.8 38.6 46.3 19.1 52.2 34.6 45.2 16.9 51.8 32.4 41.2 15.1 46.7 36.0 37.9 40.4 37.9 33.8 40.1 39.0 31.3 38.2 40.1 31.3 37.5 40.4 31.3 36.4 44.5 27.6 34.6 46.0 25.4 35.7 44.9 24.3 - 34.2 44.5 21.3 - Dash indicates data not available. NOTE: Figures are the percent of industries with employment increasing plus one-half of the industries with unchanged employment, where 50 percent indicates an equal balance between industries with inceasing and decreasing employment. no Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Data for the 2 most recent months shown in each span are preliminary. See the "Definitions" in this section. See "Notes on the data" for a description of the most recent benchmark revision. 18. Annual data: Employment status of the population [Numbers in thousands] E m p lo y m e n t s ta tu s 1 992 1 993 1 994 1 995 1 99 6 1 99 7 1998 1 99 9 2000 Civilian noninstitutional population.......... Civilian labor force................................ Labor force participation rate............. 192,805 128,105 66.4 194,838 129,200 66.3 196,814 131,056 198,584 132,304 200,591 66.6 66.6 66.8 203,133 136,297 67.1 205,220 137,673 67.1 207,753 139,368 67.1 209,699 140,863 67.2 Employed......................................... Employment-population ratio......... Agriculture................................... Nonagricultural industries........... 118,492 61.5 3,247 115,245 120,259 61.7 3,115 117,144 123,060 62.5 3,409 119,651 124,900 62.9 3,440 121,460 126,708 63.2 3,443 123,264 129,558 63.8 3,399 126,159 131,463 64.1 3,378 128,085 133,488 64.3 3,281 130,207 135,208 64.5 3,305 131,903 Unemployed.................................... Unemployment rate........................ Not in the labor force............................. 9,613 7.5 64,700 8,940 6.9 65,638 7,996 7,404 5.6 66,280 7,236 5.4 66,647 6,739 4.9 66,837 6,210 5,880 4.2 68,385 5,655 4.0 68,836 19. 6.1 65,758 133,943 4.5 67,547 Annual data: Employment levels by industry [In thousands] 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Total employment....................................... Private sector........................................... Goods-producing.................................. Mining................................................. Construction....................................... Manufacturing.............. ...................... 108,601 89,956 23,231 635 4,492 18,104 110,713 91,872 23,352 610 4,668 18,075 114,163 95,036 23,908 601 4,986 18,321 117,191 97,885 24,265 581 5,160 18,524 119,608 100,189 24,493 580 5,418 18,495 122,690 103,133 24,962 596 5,691 18,675 125,865 106,042 25,414 590 18,805 128,916 108,709 25,507 539 6,415 18,552 131,759 111,079 25,709 543 6,698 18,469 Service-producing................................. Transportation and public utilities....... Wholesale trade................................. Retail trade......................................... Finance, insurance, and real estate.... Services............................................. 85,370 5,718 5,997 19,356 6,602 29,052 87,361 5,811 5,981 19,773 6,757 30,197 90,256 5,984 6,162 20,507 6,896 31,579 92,925 6,132 6,378 21,187 6,806 33,117 95,115 6,253 6,482 21,597 6,911 34,454 97,727 6,408 6,648 21,966 7,109 36,040 100,451 6,611 6,800 22,295 7,389 37,533 103,409 6,834 6,911 22,848 7,555 39,055 106,050 7,019 7,024 23,307 7,560 40,460 Government....................................... Federal............................................ State................................................. Local................................................ 18,645 2,969 4,408 11,267 18,841 2,915 4,488 11,438 19,128 2,870 4,576 11,682 19,305 2,822 4,635 11,849 19,419 2,757 4,606 12,056 19,557 2,699 4,582 12,276 19,823 20,206 2,669 4,709 12,829 20,681 2,777 4,785 13,119 In d u s try 6,020 2 ,686 4,612 12,525 NOTE: See "Notes on the data" for a description of the most recent benchmark revision. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monthly Labor Review November 2001 111 Current Labor Statistics; 20. Labor Force Data Annual data: Average hours and earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on nonfarm payrolls, by industry__________________________________________________________________ 1 99 2 In d u s try 1 99 3 Private sector: Average weekly hours.............................................. Average hourly earnings (In dollars)........................ Average weekly earnings (in dollars)....................... 34.4 10.57 363.61 34.5 10.83 373.64 Mining: Average weekly hours............................................ Average hourly earnings (in dollars)...................... Average weekly earnings (in dollars)..................... 43.9 14.54 638.31 Construction: Average weekly hours........................................... Average hourly earnings (in dollars)...................... Average weekly earnings (in dollars).................... 1 994 1 99 5 1 99 6 1997 1 99 8 1 99 9 2000 385.86 34.5 11.43 394.34 34.4 11.82 406.61 34.6 12.28 424.89 34.6 12.78 442.19 34.5 13.24 456.78 34.5 13.75 474.38 44.3 14.60 646.78 44.8 14.88 666.62 44.7 15.30 683.91 45.3 15.62 707.59 45.4 16.15 733.21 43.9 16.91 742.35 43.2 17.05 736.56 43.1 17.24 743.04 38.0 14.15 537.70 38.5 14.38 553.63 38.9 14.73 573.00 38.9 15.09 587.00 39.0 15.47 603.33 39.0 16.04 625.56 38.9 16.61 646.13 39.1 17.19 672.13 39.3 17.88 702.68 41.0 11.46 469.86 41.4 11.74 486.04 42.0 12.07 506.94 41.6 12.37 514.59 41.6 12.77 531.23 42.0 13.17 553.14 41.7 13.49 562.53 41.7 13.90 579.63 41.6 14.38 598.21 38.3 13.43 514.37 39.3 13.55 532.52 39.7 13.78 547.07 39.4 14.13 556.72 39.6 14.45 572.22 39.7 14.92 592.32 39.5 15.31 604.75 38.7 15.69 607.20 38.6 16.22 626.09 38.2 11.39 435.10 38.2 11.74 448.47 38.4 12.06 463.10 38.3 12.43 476.07 38.*3 12.87 492.92 38.4 13.45 516.48 38.3 14.07 538.88 38.3 14.58 558.80 38.5 15.20 585.20 Average weekly earnings (in dollars).................... 28.8 7.12 205.06 28.8 7.29 209.95 28.9 7.49 216.46 28.8 7.69 221.47 28.8 7.99 230.11 28.9 8.33 240.74 29.0 8.74 253.46 29.0 9.09 263.61 28.9 9.46 273.39 Finance, insurance, and real estate: Average weekly hours............................................ Average hourly earnings (in dollars)..................... Average weekly earnings (in dollars).................... 35.8 10.82 387.36 35.8 11.35 406.33 35.8 11.83 423.51 35.9 12.32 442.29 35.9 12.80 459.52 36.1 13.34 481.57 36.4 14.07 512.15 36.2 14.62 529.24 36.3 15.07 547.04 Services: Average weekly hours........................................... Average hourly earnings (in dollars)..................... Average weekly earnings (in dollars).................... 32.5 10.54 342.55 32.5 10.78 350.35 32.5 11.04 358.80 32.4 11.39 369.04 32.4 11.79 382.00 32.6 12.28 400.33 32.6 12.84 418.58 32.6 13.37 435.86 32.7 13.91 454.86 Manufacturing: Average weekly hours............................................ Average hourly earnings (in dollars)..................... Transportation and public utilities: Average weekly hours............................................ Average hourly earnings (in dollars)..................... Wholesale trade: Average weekly hours........................................... Average weekly earnings (in dollars).................... Retail trade: Average weekly hours............................................ Monthly Labor Review 112 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 34.7 11.12 21. Employment Cost Index, compensation,1 by occupation and industry group [June 1989 = 100] 1 99 9 2000 2001 P e rc e n t c h a n g e S e rie s S e p t. D ec. M ar. June S e p t. D ec. M ar. June S e p t. 3 12 m o n th s m o n th s ended ended S e p t. 2001 C iv ilia n w o r k e r s 2 ........................................................................................ 143.3 144.6 146.5 148.0 149.5 150.6 152.5 153.8 155.6 1.2 145.0 143.9 147.3 144.7 139.5 143.1 146.3 145.3 148.6 146.1 140 6 144.8 148.4 146.7 150.5 148 6 142 7 146.0 149.9 148.3 151 9 150 1 144 1 147.1 151.5 150.0 153 7 151 fi 145 fi 148.5 152.5 151.3 154 fi 15? ft 156.0 154.3 1 fifl fi 157.7 156.7 1.1 1.1 1.6 4.5 150.0 154.4 153.2 15fi fi 155 3 148 ? 152.0 141.2 142.1 144.0 145.1 142.7 143.4 144.6 142.4 143.4 142.5 143.6 145.3 146.5 144.3 145.0 145.8 144.4 144.7 144.9 146.0 147.1 148.0 145.9 146.3 146.5 145.7 146.6 146.6 147.5 148.4 149.3 147.5 147.7 146.8 146.1 148.0 148.0 148.7 150.1 151.2 149.0 149.5 149.7 146.9 149.6 148.8 149.3 151.1 152.4 150.7 151.3 150.6 148.3 150.7 Excluding sales occupations.......................................... 143.3 143.2 144.6 144.5 146.8 146.5 148.5 148.2 149.9 149.8 Workers, by occupational group: White-collar workers......................................................... Excluding sales occupations........................................ Professional specialty and technical occupations.......... Executive, adminitrative, and managerial occupations.. Sales occupations.......................................................... Administrative support occupations, including clerical... Blue-collar workers.......................................................... Precision production, craft, and repair occupations....... Machine operators, assemblers, and inspectors........... Transportation and material moving occupations.......... Handlers, equipment cleaners, helpers, and laborers.... 145.6 146.0 145.2 147.7 144.1 145.0 139.4 139.6 139.9 134.4 143.2 146.9 147.3 146.7 149.1 145.3 146.2 140.5 140.6 141.4 135.2 144.4 149.3 149.4 148.4 151.1 148.9 149.0 142.6 142.3 144.0 137.5 146.4 151.1 151.3 150.7 152.7 150.3 150.6 144.1 144.1 145.0 138.6 148.1 Service occupations......................................................... 141.0 142.6 143.9 Production and nonsupervisory occupations4 ................ 141.9 143.1 145.3 Workers, by industry division: Goods-producing.............................................................. Excluding sales occupations..................................... White-collar occupations.............................................. Excluding sales occupations..................................... Blue-collar occupations................................................ Construction................................................................... Manufacturing................................................................ White-collar occupations.............................................. Excluding sales occupations..................................... Blue-collar occupations................................................ Durables......................................................................... Nondurables................................................................... 141.1 140.5 143.9 142.5 139.4 137.9 142.1 144.3 142.5 140.5 142.3 141.5 142.5 141.8 145.5 143.9 140.7 138.7 143.6 145.8 143.8 142.1 144.0 142.8 Service-producing.............................................................. Excluding sales occupations..................................... White-collar occupations.............................................. Excluding sales occupations..................................... Blue-collar occupations................................................ Service occupations..................................................... Transportation and public utilities................................... Transportation.............................................................. Public utilities................................................................ Communications........................................................ Electric, gas, and sanitary services.......................... Wholesale and retail trade............................................. Excluding sales occupations..................................... Wholesale trade........................................................... Excluding sales occupations..................................... Retail trade................................................................... General merchandise stores...................................... Food stores................................................................ 144.1 144.6 145.8 147.0 139.1 140.8 141.8 138.7 145.7 146.1 145.1 142.2 142.8 146.3 145.8 140.0 137.2 137.0 145.3 145.9 147.0 148.3 139.8 142.4 142.3 139.5 146.1 146.0 146.1 143.5 144.3 148.5 147.4 140.7 138.3 138.1 4.1 Workers, by occupational group: White-collar workers.......................................................... Professional specialty and technical................................ Executive, adminitrative, and managerial........................ Administrative support, Including clerical......................... Blue-collar workers............................................................ Service occupations........................................................... i s q fi i f i f i fi 153.3 155.0 1.1 4.4 150.7 151.3 153.0 154.3 152.5 153.2 151.7 150.6 152.6 152.2 152.6 155.4 155.4 154.6 155.6 152.2 151.9 154.0 153.3 153.3 156.4 158.1 156.7 158.2 156.1 153.8 156.0 .7 .5 1.3 1.7 1.4 1.7 3.5 3.1 4.2 4.6 5.2 5.8 4.3 4.7 4.3 150.9 150.9 153.0 153.0 154.5 154.4 155.9 156.0 152.6 152.9 152.2 154.4 151.2 152.3 145.5 145.8 146.0 139.9 149.4 153.6 154.1 153.7 155.3 151.4 153.4 146.4 146.7 146.8 141.1 150.4 155.7 156.5 156.3 157.3 152.3 156.1 148.2 148.7 148.3 142.6 152.2 157.4 158.1 157.5 159.4 154.5 157.7 149.3 149.7 149.1 143.9 153.4 158.7 159.6 159.2 160.2 155.0 159.5 151.0 151.8 150.4 145.6 154.9 145.4 146.6 148.1 150.0 151.3 146.9 148.4 149.5 151.4 152.7 144.8 144.2 148.1 146.5 142.8 140.8 146.0 148.2 146.2 144.4 146.5 144.9 146.6 145.9 150.1 148.4 144.4 143.2 147.5 150.2 148.2 145.6 148.3 146.0 147.9 147.2 151.3 149.6 145.8 145.1 148.7 151.4 149.3 146.7 149.4 147.5 148.8 148.2 151.9 150.5 146.8 146.7 149.3 151.5 149.7 147.8 150.1 147.7 150.7 150.1 154.5 153.0 148.2 148.2 151.3 154.2 152.2 149.1 151.8 150.4 147.4 147.7 149.3 150.3 141.8 143.6 143.9 140.4 148.6 148.4 148.9 145.6 146.4 150.0 149.6 143.2 139.7 140.1 149.1 149.4 151.0 152.1 143.1 145.1 145.7 141.8 150.9 150.9 151.0 147.3 148.1 151.8 151.1 144.8 141.0 142.5 150.6 151.1 152.6 153.9 144.5 146.3 147.4 142.8 153.5 153.9 152.9 148.3 149.6 152.1 152.7 146.2 142.2 143.4 151.7 152.2 153.7 155.1 145.3 147.9 148.3 143.9 154.1 154.7 153.4 149.4 150.6 154.4 154.9 146.6 144.4 144.5 153.8 154.6 155.8 157.5 147.7 149.6 150.5 145.4 157.3 158.3 156.0 151.0 152.6 155.1 156.9 148.7 147.3 146.1 Workers, by industry division: Goods-producing............................................................... Manufacturing.................................................................. Service-producing.............................................................. Services............................................................................ Health services............................................................... Hospitals....................................................................... Educational services...................................................... Public administration3 ........................................................ Nonmanufacturing.............................................................. P r iv a t e i n d u s t r y w o r k e r s ....................................... .............................. 2.6 1.3 1.3 .9 1.0 4.0 4.1 1.0 4.0 4.4 4.6 3.8 2.5 4.7 3.8 4.1 3.0 4.1 3.7 152.6 .9 4.1 154.3 1.0 4.0 152.1 151.5 156.5 155.0 149.3 150.3 152.6 156.0 154.0 150.0 153.1 151.6 153.1 152.5 156.8 155.3 150.8 151.7 152.2 156.0 153.8 151.3 154.0 152.0 .7 .7 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.8 3.4 4.5 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 155.3 156.0 157.4 159.1 148.7 150.8 152.4 146.9 159.8 161.1 158.1 152.6 153.9 157.8 158.5 149.7 149.4 148.2 156.9 157.8 159.0 160.9 150.9 152.2 153.5 148.2 160.7 162.8 158.1 153.7 155.4 158.6 160.0 150.9 149.7 149.7 .8 ,9 1.1 .5 .3 1.1 1.1 1.4 .9 1.2 .2 .2 1.0 .9 .5 .0 -.1 .9 .6 .3 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.5 .9 .7 .9 .6 1.1 .0 .7 1.0 .5 .9 .8 .2 1.0 4.2 4.4 4.2 4.5 4.4 4.0 4.1 3.8 4.7 5.8 3.4 3.6 3.9 4.3 4.8 3.2 5.3 4.4 See footnotes at end of table. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monthly Labor Review November 2001 113 Current Labor Statistics: Compensation & Industrial Relations 21. Continued— Employment Cost Index, compensation,1 by occupation and industry group [June 1989 = 100] 1 99 9 2000 2001 P e rc e n t c h a n g e S e rie s S e p t. D ec. M ar. June S e p t. D ec . M a r. June S e p t. 3 12 m o n th s m o n th s ended ended S e p t. 2001 Finance, insurance, and real estate............................... 147.6 148.3 152.0 153.1 155.2 155.7 157.9 159.5 160.9 0.9 3.7 Excluding sales occupations..................................... Banking, savings and loan, and other credit agencies. Insurance...................................................................... Services.......................................................................... Business services........................................................ Health services............................................................. Hospitals..................................................................... Educational services.................................................... Colleges and universities........................................... 151.0 159.3 144.5 146.1 150.7 142.6 143.0 152.2 152.6 151.6 159.8 145.8 147.6 151.9 144.2 144.6 153.0 153.3 154.2 162.7 149.9 149.4 154.2 145.8 145.8 154.0 154.6 155.5 164.2 151.3 151.2 156.3 147.5 147.5 154.9 155.5 157.4 165.8 154.8 152.9 157.5 149.0 149.2 158.8 158.6 158.4 166.5 155.2 154.1 158.4 150.6 151.1 159.9 159.2 161.2 170.8 157.6 156.5 160.5 152.7 153.5 162.3 162.2 163.1 172.7 159.3 157.8 163.0 154.7 155.9 162.6 162.6 164.7 175.4 159.9 160.0 165.2 156.8 158.4 166.4 166.2 1.0 .4 1.4 1.3 1.4 4.6 5.8 3.3 4.6 4.9 5.2 1.6 6.2 2.3 4.8 4.8 Nonmanufacturing.......................................................... White-collar workers..................................................... Excluding sales occupations.................................... Blue-collar occupations................................................ Service occupations..................................................... 143.4 144.5 146.7 148.4 151.0 152.0 142.3 145.1 155.8 157.5 146.9 149.5 157.5 159.1 148.1 150.7 156.3 159.0 160.9 150.2 152.1 1.0 149.2 150.2 140.6 143.5 151.1 153.7 155.1 144.8 147.8 154.7 146.9 148.1 138.7 142.3 150.0 152.6 153.8 143.9 146.3 153.1 145.6 146.8 138.0 140.7 1.4 .9 4.2 4.2 4.6 4.4 4.0 S t a t e a n d lo c a l g o v e r n m e n t w o r k e r s ............................................. 143.1 144.6 145.5 145.9 147.8 148.9 150.3 151.2 154.3 2.1 4.4 142.6 142.0 144.5 143.0 140.9 144.0 143.2 146.1 145.0 142.5 144.9 144.1 147.0 145.9 143.7 145.3 144.5 147.2 146.5 144.2 147.3 146.6 149.2 148.3 145.9 148.3 147.4 150.7 149.4 147.2 149.5 148.4 152.4 150.7 148.6 150.4 149.2 153.7 151.6 149.0 153.7 152.8 156.4 154.2 151.5 2.2 4.3 4.2 4.8 4.0 3.8 143.2 142.6 144.2 144.8 143.1 143.5 142.9 144.8 142.4 144.5 143.8 145.8 146.3 144.4 144.7 144.1 146.5 144.4 145.2 145.2 147.3 147.9 145.0 145.3 144.5 147.4 145.7 145.5 145.8 147.9 148.4 145.2 145.5 144.7 147.6 146.1 148.0 147.6 150.0 150.7 147.9 148.2 147.3 150.5 146.9 148.9 148.8 151.6 152.0 148.7 149.0 148.1 151.7 148.3 149.9 150.1 152.1 152.2 149.6 149.9 148.5 153.7 150.6 154.4 150.6 154.5 151.9 154.4 157.1 154.7 157.4 154.1 150.1 154.4 150.5 149.0 152.8 154.3 9.0153.8 151.9 151.9 2.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.7 1.6 2.2 1.0 1.1 Workers, by occupational group: White-collar workers........................................................... Professional specialty and technical................................ Executive, administrative, and managerial....................... Blue-collar workers................................................. ........... 2.4 1.8 1.7 1.7 Workers, by industry division: Services............................................................................ Services excluding schools5 ........................................... Health services............................................................. Hospitals................................................................... Schools..................................................................... Elementary and secondary..................................... Colleges and universities........................................ Public administration3 ........................................................ 1 Cost (cents per hour worked) measured in the Employment Cost Index consists of wages, salaries, and employer cost of employee benefits. Consists of private industry workers (excluding farm and household workers) and State and local government (excluding Federal Government) workers. 2 114 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 3 2.6 2 .6 3.0 1.3 4.3 4.7 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.2 3.7 5.6 4.7 Consists of legislative, judicial, administrative, and regulatory activities. This series has the same industry and occupational coverage as the Hourly Earnings index, which was discontinued in January 1989. 4 6 Includes, for example, library, social, and health services. 22. Employment Cost Index, wages and salaries, by occupation and industry group [June 1989 = 100]______________________________________________________________________ 1 999 2000 2001 P e rc e n t c h a n g e S e rie s S e p t. D ec. M a r. June S e p t. D ec. M ar. June S e p t. 3 12 m o n th s m o n th s ended ended S e p t. 2001 141.3 142.5 144.0 145.4 147.0 147.9 149.5 150.8 152.3 1.0 3.6 144.6 144.0 147.2 143.5 137.9 141.7 146.2 144.9 148.6 145.5 139.2 143.0 147.6 146.4 149.9 146.9 140.6 144.0 149.2 148.3 151.6 148.5 142.0 145.7 150.2 149.6 152.4 149.6 142.9 147.1 151.7 151.1 154.0 151.6 144.7 148.6 153.1 152.155.8 152,7 146.0 149.7 154.5 154.2 156.7 154.6 147.6 151.2 .9 1.4 Service occupations........................................................... 143.3 142.6 145.9 142.3 137.0 140.1 3.6 4.0 3.4 4.1 3.9 3.8 Workers, by industry division: Goods-producing................................................................ Manufacturing.................................................................. Service-producing.............................................................. Services............................................................................ Health services............................................................... Hospitals....................................................................... Educational services....................................................... 138.6 140.2 142.3 144.1 140.9 140.1 143.7 139.7 141.5 143.5 145.5 142.5 141.6 144.7 141.3 142.9 145.0 146.6 143.8 142.6 145.3 143.0 144.4 146.3 147.9 145.3 143.8 145.6 144.3 145.7 148.0 149.9 146.7 145.6 148.9 145.3 146.5 148.9 151.0 148.3 147.3 149.6 147.0 148.5 150.5 152.6 149.8 148.8 150.5 147,6 150.0 151.7 153.6 151.8 151.2 151.0 149.5 150.7 153.4 156.2 153.7 15.5 154.6 .6 1.7 1.3 1.5 2.4 Public administration2 ....................................................... Nonmanufacturing.............................................................. 139.5 141.5 141.5 142.6 142.5 144.2 142.9 145.5 144.6 147.2 146.1 148.1 147.6 149.7 148.7 149.7 150.3 152.6 1.1 P r iv a t e in d u s t r y w o r k e r s ..................................................................... Excluding sales occupations.......................................... 141.0 140.8 142.2 142.0 143.9 143.5 145.4 145.1 146.8 146.5 147.7 147.6 149.4 149.5 150.9 150.8 152.1 152.2 .9 Workers, by occupational group: White-collar workers......................................................... Excluding sales occupations........................................ Professional specialty and technical occupations.......... Executive, adminitrative, and managerial occupations.. Sales occupations.......................................................... Administrative support occupations, including clerical... Blue-collar workers.......................................................... Precision production, craft, and repair occupations...... Machine operators, assemblers, and inspectors........... Transportation and material moving occupations.......... Handlers, equipment cleaners, helpers, and laborers.... 143.5 143.9 142.6 146.4 142.1 142.7 136.8 136.7 138.3 131.9 139.4 144.8 145.2 144.1 147.6 143.3 143.8 137.7 137.5 139.5 132.7 140.4 146.6 146.7 145.1 149.2 146.7 146.0 139.1 138.9 140.7 134.1 141.8 148.3 148.5 147.3 150.7 147.9 147.5 140.5 140.6 141.6 135.2 143.6 149.7 149.9 148.6 152.3 149.0 149.1 141.9 142.0 142.9 136.5 145.0 150.6 151.1 150.2 153.0 148.7 150.1 142.8 142.8 143.7 137.6 146.2 152.3 153.0 152.1 154.7 149.2 152.3 144.6 144.6 145.6 139.5 148.0 153.8 154.4 153.2 156.5 151.5 153.6 145.9 145.7 146.9 140.7 149.8 154.8 155.7 154.8 157.2 151.2 155.3 147.5 147.7 148.1 142.1 151.0 .8 3.4 3.9 4.2 3.2 1.5 4.2 39 4.0 3.6 4.1 4.1 Service occupations......................................................... 138.0 139.6 141.0 142.5 143.5 144.9 146.4 147.5 148.7 .8 3.6 Production and nonsupervisory occupations3 ................ 139.3 140.4 142.1 143.7 145.0 146.0 147.7 149.0 150.3 .9 3.7 138.5 137.8 141.7 140.1 136.6 133.0 140.2 142.7 140.8 138.4 140.4 139.7 139.7 138.9 143.0 141.3 137.6 133.6 141.5 144.0 142.0 139.7 141.8 140.9 141.3 140.5 145.0 143.2 139.0 136.0 142.9 145.8 143.7 140.8 143.0 142 7 143.0 142.1 146.8 144.9 140.5 138.0 144.4 147.7 145.6 142.0 144.7 143 9 144.3 143 4 147.9 146.0 142.0 139.4 145.7 148.7 146.6 143.4 146.1 145 0 145.2 144.6 148.7 147.2 143.1 140.7 146.5 149.2 147.5 144.6 147.3 145 4 147.0 146.3 150.5 148.9 144.7 142.1 148.5 151.1 149.9 146.4 149.0 147 5 148.6 147 8 152.3 150.5 146.1 143.9 150.0 152.7 150.5 147.8 150.5 149 0 149.5 148 7 152.6 150.8 147.4 145.1 150.7 152.8 150.5 149.1 151.5 149 3 .6 6 3.6 3j 3.2 3.3 3.8 4.1 3.4 142.1 142.6 143.8 145.1 137.0 138.0 137.5 134.4 141.5 141.9 140.9 140.7 141.8 144.3 144.8 138.9 135.6 133.9 143.3 143.8 145.0 146.4 137.8 139.6 137.9 134.9 141.8 142.2 141.3 142.0 143.3 146.5 146.4 139.6 136.7 134.9 145.0 145.3 146.9 147.8 139.1 141.1 138.5 134.9 143.2 143.4 143.0 143.8 145.2 147.4 147.9 142.1 137.8 136.7 146.5 146.9 148.5 149.6 140.3 142.5 140.0 136.2 144.9 145.0 144.7 145.5 146.8 149.4 149.7 143 5 138.5 139.5 147 9 148.3 150.0 151.2 141 6 143.5 141.3 137.4 146.4 146.7 145.9 146.4 148.2 149.6 151.3 144 8 139.7 140.2 148 9 149.4 150 9 152.3 142.2 144.8 142.3 138.6 147.1 147.4 146.6 147.4 149.0 151.6 153.2 145 2 142.2 141.6 150 5 151 3 152.5 154 3 144.3 146.1 143.7 139.8 148.7 149.2 148.1 148.4 150.7 151.6 154.9 146 9 143.8 143.3 151 9 152 6 154 0 155.6 145.3 147.2 145.7 141.6 151.0 151.8 149 9 150.1 151.9 154.5 156.5 147 8 145.5 144.5 153 2 154 2 155 2 157.2 147.5 148.4 146 7 142.6 152.0 153.3 150.4 150.6 153.1 154.1 157.4 148 8 145.7 145.7 C iv ilia n w o r k e r s 1......................................................................................... Workers, by occupational group: White-collar workers........................................................... Professional specialty and technical................................ Executive, adminitrative, and managerial........ ............... Administrative support, including clerical......................... Workers, by industry division: Goods-producing.............................................................. Excluding sales occupations..................................... Blue-collar occupations................................................ Construction................................................................... Manufacturing................................................................ White-collar occupations.............................................. Excluding sales occupations..................................... Blue-collar occupations................................................ Durables........................................................ ................ Service-producing............................................................. Excluding sales occupations.................................... Service occupations..................................................... Transportation and public utilities.................................. Transportation.............................................................. Public utilities................................................................ Communications........................................................ Wholesale and retail trade............................................. Excluding sales occupations.................................... Wholesale trade........................................................... Excluding sales occupations.................................... General merchandise stores...................................... Food stores................................................................ .6 1.2 1.1 1.0 ,5 1.1 1.1 .8 .7 .8 1.0 .4 - .2 1.1 1.1 1.4 .8 1.0 2 .2 .9 .8 .5 3.6 3.9 3.6 4.2 4.8 5.4 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.9 .1 2 .8 .0 2.7 4.0 3.7 3n .9 .7 2 g 6 3R 40 3.5 40 4*2 34 38 3.8 3.8 4.5 31 2.9 33 3.0 4.0 7 2 8 .1 4.3 3.9 10 8 10 15 8 7 .7 .7 1.0 3 .3 8 -.3 .8 See footnotes at end of table. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monthly Labor Review November 2001 115 Current Labor Statistics: 22. Compensation & Industrial Relations Continued—Employment Cost Index, wages and salaries, by occupation and industry group [June 1989 = 100]________ _____ ____________________________________________________________________ 1 99 9 2000 2001 P e rc e n t c h a n g e S e rie s S e p t. D ec. M ar. June S e p t. D ec . M a r. June 3 12 m o n th s m o n th s ended ended S e p t. S e p t. 2001 Finance, insurance, and real estate............................... Excluding sales occupations..................................... Banking, savings and loan, and other credit agencies. Insurance..................................................................... Services.......................................................................... Health services............................................................. Hospitals..................................................................... Educational services.................................................... Colleges and universities........................................... 144.5 147.5 159.2 140.2 144.5 148.5 140.6 139.3 147.5 147.2 145.2 148.0 159.6 141.5 146.0 149 8 142.2 140.9 148.2 147.9 148.7 150.2 162.0 145.5 147.4 152.0 143.5 141.8 148.9 148.9 149.5 151.5 163.3 146.6 149.1 154 1 145.3 143.3 149.6 149.4 151.7 153.3 165.0 150.7 150.6 155 3 146.6 144.9 153.4 152.5 151.7 154.1 165.7 150.8 151.8 156 0 148.1 146.8 154.3 152.9 153.9 156.6 169.4 152.4 153.8 158 2 149.8 148.5 155.4 154.1 154.6 157.6 170.8 153.3 155.0 160 8 151.8 151.0 156.1 155.0 155.8 159.1 173.2 153.6 157.1 162 8 153.6 153.3 159.6 158.4 Nonmanufacturing.......................................................... White-collar workers..................................................... Excluding sales occupations.................................... Blue-collar occupations................................................ Service occupations..................................................... 141.0 143.5 144.6 135.1 137.9 142.1 144.7 145.9 135.8 139.5 143.9 146.5 147.4 137.4 140.9 145.5 148.2 149.1 138.9 142.4 146.9 149.6 150.7 140.3 143.4 147.9 150.6 151.9 140.9 144.7 149.5 152.3 153.9 142.8 146.0 150.9 153.8 155.3 143.9 147.1 152.2 155.0 156.9 145.8 148.2 1.3 .7 3.6 3.6 4.1 3.9 3.3 S t a t e a n d lo c a l g o v e r n m e n t w o r k e r s ............................................. 142.2 143.5 144.3 144.7 147.2 148.3 150.2 151.2 154.3 1.9 3.9 142.1 142.5 142.7 139.6 139.4 143.4 143.6 144.3 141.7 140.7 144.1 144.3 144.9 142.4 141.5 144.5 144.7 145.1 143.0 142.1 147.1 147.4, 147.3 145.0 143.9 148.0 148.2 148.8 146.2 145.1 149.0 149.1 150.1 147.0 146 0 149.8 149.8 151.5 147.6 146.5 152.7 153.0 153.9 149 8 149.1 1.9 1.8 3.8 3.8 4.5 33 3.6 142.9 144.0 144.6 144.9 147.9 148.7 149.5 150.2 153.7 2.3 3.9 143.2 144.2 144.1 144.0 144.2 144.1 144.4 144.3 145.3 145.3 144.5 144.7 144.5 144.9 144.8 145.7 145.6 144.8 144.9 144.6 145.6 146.7 147.7 147.7 148.0 148.1 147.9 148.3 147.9 149.3 149.2 148 7 148.9 148.5 149.5 149.1 149.9 149.5 149 5 149.7 149.0 151.4 150.7 151.9 151.8 150 0 150.2 149.5 151.8 153.2 154.2 154.2 153 6 153.8 152.8 156.5 1.7 1.5 Schools..................................................................... Elementary and secondary..................................... Colleges and universities........................................ 142.1 142.8 142.8 142.9 143.1 143.1 142.6 4.4 4.4 4.4 38 3.8 3.3 5.5 Public administration2 ........................................................ 139.5 141.5 142.5 142.9 Workers, by occupational group: White-collar workers........................................................... Professional specialty and technical................................ Executive, administrative, and managerial....................... Workers, by industry division: Services............................................................................ Services excluding schools4 ........................................... Health services............................................................. Hospitals.................................................................... 1 Consists of private industry workers (excluding farm and household workers) and State and local government (excluding Federal Government) workers. 2 Consists of legislative, judicial, administrative, and regulatory activities. 23. 2.7 3.8 5.0 1.9 4.3 4*8 4.8 5.8 4.0 3.9 0.8 1.0 1.4 .2 1.4 1_2 1.2 1.5 2.2 2.2 .9 .8 1.0 2.1 1.6 15 1.6 24 2.4 2.2 3.1 148.7 144.6 146.1 147.6 1.1 150.3 3.9 ** This series has the same industry and occupational coverage as the Hourly Earnings index, which was discontinued in January 1989. 4 Includes, for example, library, social, and health services. Employment Cost Index, benefits, private industry workers by occupation and industry group [June 1989 = 100]_________________________________________________________ 1 999 2000 2001 P e rc e n t c h a n g e S e rie s S e p t. D ec. M a r. June S e p t. D ec . M a r. June S e p t. 3 12 m o n th s m o n th s ended ended S e p t. P r iv a t e In d u s t r y w o r k e r s ....................................................................... Workers, by occupational group: White-collar workers........................................................... Workers, by industry division: Goods-producing................................................................ Service-producing.............................................................. Manufacturing..................................................................... Nonmanufacturing............................................................. 116 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 148.6 150.2 153.8 155.7 157.5 158.6 161.5 163.2 165.2 1.2 4.9 151.0 144.8 152.5 146.2 156.3 150.0 158.5 151.6 160.4 153.1 161.5 154.1 165.2 155.7 167.4 156.7 169.5 158.3 1.3 1.3 5.7 3.4 146.3 149.4 145.7 149.4 148.2 150.7 147.8 150.7 152.3 154.0 152.3 154.0 154.2 156.0 153.9 156.1 155.7 157.9 154.9 158.1 156.2 159.4 154.8 159.7 158.5 162.6 157.1 162.9 159.6 164.6 157.9 164.9 160.8 167.1 158.5 167.4 .8 1.5 .4 1.5 3.3 5.8 2.3 5.9 November 2001 24. Employment Cost Index, private nonfarm workers by bargaining status, region, and area size [June 1989 = 100]__________________________________________________________________________________ 1 999 2000 2001 P e rc e n t c h a n g e S e rie s S e p t. D ec. M a r. June S e p t. D ec . M a r. June S e p t. 3 12 m o n th s m o n th s ended ended S e p t. 2001 C O M P E N S A T IO N Workers, by bargaining status1 Union....................................................................................... Qoods-producing................................................................. Service-producing............................................................... Manufacturing...................................................................... Nonmanufacturing.............................................................. 140.2 139.2 141.0 139.1 140.3 141.2 140.8 141.4 141.0 140.8 143.0 143.3 142.5 144.5 141.7 144.4 144.8 143.9 145.4 143.4 146.1 146.8 145.2 147.1 145.0 146.9 147.3 146.4 147.4 146.2 147.9 147.9 147.6 147.9 147.3 149.5 149.3 149.5 148.8 149.4 151.0 150.6 151.2 149.9 151.1 Nonunion................................................................................. Goods-producing................................................................. Service-producing............................................................... Manufacturing..................................................................... Nonmanufacturing.............................................................. 143.8 141.8 144.4 143.0 143.8 145.2 143.1 145.7 144.4 145.1 147.4 145.4 148.0 146.5 147.4 149.1 147.2 149.6 148.2 149.1 150.6 148.4 151.2 149.2 150.7 151.6 149.3 152.3 149.9 151.8 153.8 151.6 154.4 152.4 153.9 155.3 153.1 155.9 153.7 155.4 156.7 154.0 157.5 154.4 157.0 143.2 141.8 145.0 143.3 144.3 143.0 146.3 144.7 146.3 145.0 148.9 147.0 147.6 146.7 150.7 148.8 149.3 147.6 152.2 150.8 150.3 148.6 153.3 151.8 151.6 151.1 154.8 154.3 153.7 152.3 156.0 156.0 155.2 153.5 157.4 157.6 1.0 1.0 4.0 4.0 3.4 4.5 143.3 143.1 144.7 143.6 146.9 146.0 148.6 147.7 150.1 148.8 151.0 150.3 153.1 152.1 154.6 153.7 156.0 154.8 .9 .7 3.9 4.0 Union....................................................................................... Goods-producing................................................................. Service-producing............................................................... Manufacturing...................................................................... Nonmanufacturing.............................................................. 135.7 134.9 136.8 135.8 135.6 136.5 136.1 137.2 137.5 135.9 137.2 137.2 137.6 138.8 136.4 138.5 138.4 138.9 139.7 137.8 140.0 140.2 140.1 141.4 139.2 141.2 141.3 141.5 142.6 140.4 142.1 142.4 142.2 143.9 141.1 143.7 144.2 143.7 145.5 142.7 145.1 145.3 145.4 146.7 144.3 1.0 3.6 3.6 3.8 3.7 3.7 Nonunion................................................................................. Goods-producing................................................................. Service-producing............................................................... Manufacturing..................................................................... 142.0 140.0 142.6 141.7 141.8 143.3 141.1 143.9 142.9 143.0 145.1 142.9 145.8 144.4 145.0 146.7 144.7 147.3 146.1 146.6 148.1 145.8 148.7 147.2 148.0 149.0 146.8 149.6 148.0 148.9 150.8 148.8 151.4 150.1 150.7 152.2 150.3 152.7 151.6 152.0 153.4 151.1 154.1 152.2 153.3 139.9 140.2 142.4 141.3 140.9 141.5 143.6 142.6 142.3 143.0 145.3 144.7 143.7 144.6 147.1 146.3 145.3 145.3 148.6 148.2 146.0 146.3 149.6 149.2 147.3 148.3 150.9 151.3 149.2 149.3 152.3 152.9 150.6 150.2 153.6 154.3 .9 141.2 139.8 142.5 140.2 144.1 142.2 145.7 143.7 147.1 144.7 148.0 146.0 149.8 147.4 151.2 148.8 152.4 149.7 .8 1.0 3.4 .9 2.6 1.1 4.1 1.9 4.2 .7 1.1 .9 .6 1.0 .5 1.0 4.1 3.8 4.2 3.5 4.2 Workers, by region1 Northeast................................................................................ South............................................................ .......................... Midwest (formerly North Central).......................................... .8 .9 Workers, by area size1 Metropolitan areas.................................................................. W A G E S A N D S A L A R IE S Workers, by bargaining status1 .8 1.2 .8 1.1 .8 .5 .9 .4 .9 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.6 Workers, by region1 Northeast................................................................................ South...................................................................................... .6 9 .9 3.6 3.4 34 4.1 Workers, by area size1 Metropolitan areas.................................................................. Other areas............................................................................ .6 3.6 3.5 ' The indexes are calculated differently from those for the occupation and industry groups. For a detailed description of the index calculation, see the M o n th ly L a b o r R e vie w Technical Note, "Estimation procedures for the Employment Cost Index," May 1982. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monthly Labor Review November 2001 117 Current Labor Statistics: Compensation & Industriai Relations 25. Percent of full-time employees participating in employer-provided benefit plans, and In selected features within plans, medium and large private establishments, selected years, 1980-97 Ite m 1980 Scope of survey (in 000's)....................................... Number of employees (in 000’s): With medical care................................................. With life insurance................................................ With defined benefit plan...................................... 1982 1984 1986 1988 1989 1991 1993 1997 1995 21,352 21,043 21,013 21,303 31,059 32,428 31,163 28,728 33,374 38,409 20,711 20,498 17,936 20,412 20,383 20,172 17,231 20,238 20,451 16,190 27,953 28,574 19,567 29,834 30,482 20,430 25,865 29,293 18,386 23,519 26,175 16,015 25,546 29,078 17,417 29,340 33,495 19,202 10 75 99 9 25 76 25 99 9 29 10.1 10.0 80 3.3 89 9.1 8? 3.7 89 9.3 20 24 3.8 99 67 20,201 17,676 T im e - o f f p la n s Participants with: Paid lunch time...................................................... Average minutes per day..................................... Paid rest time......................................................... Average minutes per day..................................... Paid funeral leave.................................................. Average days per occurrence.............................. Paid holidays.......................................................... Average days per year......................................... Paid personal leave................................................ Average days per year......................................... Paid vacations........................................................ 100 62 Unpaid family leave............................................... _ _ 9 26 73 26 99 9.8 23 3.6 99 67 _ 10 11 10 8 27 72 26 29 72 26 85 3.2 96 9.4 24 3.3 98 69 33 16 26 71 26 84 3.3 97 9.2 30 67 28 80 3.3 92 88 3.2 99 10.0 25 3.7 100 70 _ 10.2 68 26 83 3.0 91 9.4 22 21 21 22 20 3.1 97 3.3 96 67 37 26 3.1 97 3.3 96 58 3.5 95 56 84 93 68 37 18 65 60 53 In s u r a n c e p la n s Participants in medical care plans............................ Percent of participants with coverage for: Home health care................................................. Percent of participants with employee contribution required for: Self coverage...................................................... Average monthly contribution............................. Family coverage.................................................. Average montniy contrioution............................. Participants in life insurance plans........................... Percent of participants with: Accidental death and dismemberment insurance............................................................ Survivor income benefits...................................... Retiree protection available................................... Participants in long-term disability 95 90 92 83 82 77 76 66 8 76 79 28 75 80 28 81 80 30 86 70 18 82 42 78 73 56 85 78 63 97 97 97 58 62 46 62 26 46 - 27 51 - 36 $11.93 58 $35.93 43 $12.80 63 $41.40 44 $19.29 64 $60.07 47 $25.31 66 $72.10 51 $26.60 69 $96.97 61 $31.55 76 $107.42 67 $33.92 78 $118.33 69 $39.14 80 $130.07 96 96 96 96 92 94 94 91 87 87 69 - 72 64 74 64 72 78 10 8 59 49 71 7 42 71 6 44 76 5 41 77 7 37 74 6 33 40 43 47 48 42 45 40 41 42 43 54 51 51 49 46 43 45 44 53 55 Participants in sickness and accident Participants in short-term disability plans1............... R e tir e m e n t p la n s Participants in defined benefit pension plans........... Percent of participants with: Normal retirement prior to age 65........................ Early retirement available.................................... 84 84 82 76 63 63 59 56 52 50 55 98 58 97 64 98 35 57 62 59 98 26 55 62 62 97 22 64 63 55 98 7 56 54 52 95 52 95 61 48 52 96 4 58 51 56 49 Terminal earnings formula................................... Benefit coordinated with Social Security............... 53 45 52 45 63 97 47 54 56 Participants in defined contribution plans.................. Participants in plans with tax-deferred savings arrangements....................................................... - - - 60 45 48 48 49 55 57 - - - 33 36 41 44 43 54 55 _ _ 5 2 12 5 _ fits at less than full pay. 9 23 _ 10 36 12 52 12 38 5 13 32 7 6 10 O th e r b e n e fits Employees eligible for: Reimbursement accounts2.................................... Premium conversion plans.................................... The definitions for paid sick leave and short-term disability (previously sickness and accident insurance) were changed for the 1995 survey. Paid sick leave now includes only plans that specify either a maximum number of days per year or unlimited days. Shortterms disability now includes all insured, self-insured, and State-mandated plans available on a per-disability basis, as well as the unfunded per-disability plans previously reported as sick leave. Sickness and accident insurance, reported in years prior to this survey, included only insured, self-insured, and State-mandated plans providing per-disability bene 118 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 2 Prior to 1995, reimbursement accounts included premium conversion plans, which specifically allow medical plan participants to pay required plan premiums with pretax dollars. Also, reimbursement accounts that were part of flexible benefit plans were tabulated separately. Note: Dash indicates data not available. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 26. Percent of full-time employees participating in employer-provided benefit plans, and in selected features within plans, small private establishments and State and local governments, 1987,1990,1992, 1994, and 1996 S m all p riv a te estab lish m en ts Item 1990 Scope of survey (in 000's)....................................... Number of employees (In 000’s): With medical care................................................. With life insurance................................................ 1992 1994 S ta te and local go ve rn m e n ts 1996 1987 1992 1990 1994 32,466 34,360 35,910 39,816 10,321 12,972 12,466 12,907 22,402 20,778 6,493 24,396 21,990 7,559 23,536 21,955 5,480 25,599 24,635 5,883 9,599 8,773 9,599 12,064 11,415 11,675 11,219 11,095 10,845 11,192 11,194 11,708 8 37 48 27 47 2.9 84 9 37 49 26 50 3.0 82 50 3.1 82 51 3.0 80 11 36 56 29 63 3.7 74 9.5 11 2.8 88 47 9.2 12 2.6 88 53 7.5 13 2.6 88 50 7.6 14 3.0 86 13.6 39 2.9 67 95 10 34 53 29 65 3.7 75 14.2 38 2.9 67 95 62 3.7 73 Average days per year'....................................... Paid personal leave............................................... Average days per year........................................ Paid vacations....................................................... 17 34 58 29 56 3.7 81 10.9 38 2.7 72 97 11.5 38 3.0 66 94 Unpaid leave......................................................... Unpaid paternity leave.......................................... Unpaid family leave............................................... 17 8 18 7 57 30 51 33 59 44 “ 93 Time-off plans Participants with: Paid lunch time...................................................... Average minutes per day..................................... Paid rest time........................................................ Average minutes per day..................................... Average days per occurrence.............................. Paid holidays......................................................... Insurance plans Participants in medical care plans........................... Percent of participants with coverage for: Home health care................................................ _ 50 _ 47 48 — " 69 71 66 64 93 93 90 87 80 84 28 - - Physical exam..................................................... 79 83 26 76 78 36 82 79 36 87 84 47 84 81 55 Percent of participants with employee contribution required for: Self coverage...................................................... Average monthly contribution............................. Family coverage................................................. Average monthly contribution............................. 42 $25.13 67 $109.34 47 $36.51 73 $150.54 52 $40.97 76 $159.63 52 $42.63 75 $181.53 35 $15.74 71 $71.89 38 $25.53 65 $117.59 43 $28.97 72 $139.23 47 $30.20 71 $149.70 64 64 61 62 85 88 89 87 78 1 19 76 1 25 79 2 20 77 1 13 67 1 55 67 1 45 74 1 46 46 22 31 27 28 30 14 21 22 21 - - - - Participants in life insurance plans.......................... Percent of participants with: Accidental death and dismemberment insurance........................................................... R e t ir e e p r o te c tio n a v a ila b le .................................. Participants in long-term disability insurance plans................................................... Participants in sickness and accident insurance plans..................................................... Participants in short-term disability plans 2............... Retirement plans Participants in defined benefit pension plans.......... Percent of participants with: Normal retirement prior to age 65........................ Early retirement available.................................... Ad hoc pension increase In last 5 years.............. Terminal earnings formula.................................. Benefit coordinated with Social Security............... Participants in defined contribution plans................. Participants in plans with tax-deferred savings arrangements....................................................... Other benefits Employees eligible for: Flexible benefits plans........................................... Reimbursement accounts3.................................... Premium conversion plans .................................. 64 2 19 23 20 6 26 26 - - - 20 22 15 15 93 90 87 91 54 95 7 58 49 50 95 4 54 46 - 47 92 53 44 92 90 33 100 18 89 88 16 100 8 92 89 10 100 10 92 87 13 49 31 33 34 38 9 9 9 9 17 24 23 28 28 45 45 24 1 2 14 3 4 12 7 5 5 5 19 31 5 50 5 64 8 29 99 1 Methods used to calculate the average number of paid holidays were revised in 1994 to count partial days more precisely. Average holidays for 1994 are not comparable with those reported in 1990 and 1992. Sickness and accident insurance, reported in years prior to this survey, included only insured, self-insured, and State-mandated plans providing perdisability benefits at less than full pay. 2 The definitions for paid sick leave and short-term disability (previously sickness and accident insurance) were changed for the 1996 survey. Paid sick leave now includes only plans that specify either a maximum number of days per year or unlimited days. Short-term disability now includes all insured, selfinsured, and State-mandated plans available on a per-disability basis, as well as the unfunded per-disability plans previously reported as sick leave. 3 Prior to 1996, reimbursement accounts included premium conversion plans, which specifically allow medical plan participants to pay required plan premiums with pretax dollars. Also, reimbursement accounts that were part of flexible benefit plans were tabulated separately. Note: Dash indicates data not available. Monthly Labor Review November 2001 119 Current Labor Statistics: Compensation & Industrial Relations 27. Work stoppages involving 1,000 workers or more A n n u a l t o ta ls 1999 1999 Dec. 2000 M e a s u re 2000 J a n .p F e b .p M a r .p A p r.p M ayp Junep J u ly p A u g .p S e p t.p O c t.p N o v .p D e c .p Number of stoppages: Beginning in period........................... In effect during period....................... 17 21 39 40 0 1 0 1 1 2 2 4 6 7 2 4 5 8 3 6 6 8 5 10 7 12 0 3 2 3 Workers involved: Beginning in period (in thousands).... In effect during period (in thousands). 73 80 394 397 .0 3.0 .0 3.0 17.0 20.0 5.7 25.7 26.7 29.7 136.9 141.3 11.4 150.8 7.2 146.9 99.2 237.2 17.8 167.8 60.3 211.6 .0 4.5 8.7 10.3 1,995 20,419 63.0 60.0 298.0 327.6 272.2 3,095.3 3,134.0 2,804.4 4,186.6 3,029.3 3,088.6 64.5 58.9 Days idle: .11 .06 .01 .01 .10 .10 .10 .13 .11 _____ s . .01 .01 Percent of estimated working time1.... (2) (2) (2) 1 Agricultural and government employees are included in the total employed and total working time; private household, forestry, and fishery employees are excluded. An explanation of the measurement of idleness as a percentage of the total time worked is found in " Total economy’ measures of strike idleness," M onthly L a b o r R e v ie w , October 1968, pp. 54-56. 2 Less than 0.005. p = preliminary. Monthly Labor Review 120 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 28. Consumer Price Indexes for All Urban Consumers and for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers: U.S. city average, by expenditure category and commodity or service group [1982-84 = 100, unless otherwise indicated] 1999 2000 2001 2000 A n n u a l a v e ra g e S e rie s S e p t. O c t. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. M a r. A p r. M ay June J u ly Aug. S e p t. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR ALL URBAN CONSUMERS All Items.......................................................... All Items (1967= 100)....................................... Food and beverages........................................ Food............................................................. Food at home............................................... Cereals and bakery products........................ Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs....................... Dairy and related products1.......................... Fruits and vegetables.................................. Nonalcoholic beverages and beverage materials................................................. Other foods at home.................................... Sugar and sweets..................................... Fats and oils............................................. Other foods.............................................. Other miscellaneous foods1,2................... Food away from home1.................................. Other food away from home1,2..................... Alcoholic beverages...................................... Housing......................................................... Shelter........................................................ Rent of primary residence............................ Lodging away from home............................ Owners’ equivalent rent of primary residence3. Tenants'and household insurance1’2 ............ Fuels and utilities....................................... Fuels...................................................... Fuel oil and other fuels............................ Gas (piped) and electricity....................... Household furnishings and operations........... Apparel......................................................... Men's and boys' apparel.............................. Women’s and girls' apparel.......................... Infants’ and toddlers’ apparel1...................... Footwear................................................... Transportation................................................ Private transportation................................... New and used motor vehicles2.................... New vehicles........................................... Used cars and trucks............................... Motor fuel................................................. Gasoline (all types)................................... Motor vehicle parts and equipment............... Motor vehicle maintenance and repair.......... Public transportation.................................... Medical care................................................. Medical care commodities............................. Medical care services................................... Professional services................................. Hospital and related services...................... Recreation2.................................................. Video and audio1,2...................................... , 2 Education and communication ....................... Education2................................................ Educational books and supplies................ Tuition, other school fees, and child care.... Communication1,2...................................... . processing1’2 .... Information and information Telephone services1'2 ........................... Information and information processing 14 other than teleDhone services ’ ........... Personal computers and peripheral equipment1,2................................. Other goods and services............................... Tobacco and smoking products.................... Personal care1........................................... Personal care products1........................... Personal care services1............................ 176.9 529.9 172.4 171.9 172.2 192.5 160.7 177.7 532.2 172.9 172.5 172.8 193.2 160.8 178.0 533.3 173.4 173.0 173.3 194.2 161.7 177.5 531.6 174.0 173.5 173.9 194.9 162.3 177.5 531.8 174.4 173.9 174.2 195.9 162.4 178.3 534.0 174.6 174.1 174.3 195.1 162.4 163.6 211.5 176.2 528.0 172.2 171.7 172.0 191.9 160.1 163.2 211.5 163.4 213.3 164.7 213.1 166.9 211.8 168.3 210.7 168.9 208.8 169.4 212.1 139.4 157.8 155.7 153.0 173.8 139.9 157.9 155.8 152.6 174.0 139.5 158.6 155.7 153.1 175.1 138.9 157.6 154.0 151.5 174.4 138.1 159.6 155.8 154.7 176.4 138.6 159.5 155.7 156.7 175.7 138.9 160.4 156.1 157.8 176.8 140.0 161.0 156.1 158.5 177.6 139.2 160.2 156.6 158.5 176.2 109.0 171.4 111.3 177.2 174.1 196.4 188.2 114.1 202.4 108.7 171.8 111.4 177.7 108.5 172.7 111.8 178.1 175.4 199.2 190.2 121.8 204.2 108.8 173.1 112.4 178.5 175.9 199.6 191.0 120.0 204.9 107.7 173.6 112.6 179.1 177.3 200.7 191.6 123.7 205.7 109.6 174.1 113.8 179.7 109.5 174.7 114.3 180.0 177.6 201.4 192.3 124.0 206.3 178.0 202.4 105.1 152.3 138.0 144.6 144.0 129.1 128.4 126.6 121.0 106.8 151.3 136.8 131.9 143.8 128.9 129.8 129.1 122.3 130.7 125.4 155.2 151.1 128.2 123.8 154.4 150.3 127.4 121.4 154.4 150.3 100.8 141.6 157.9 133.1 132.3 101.7 179.4 208.0 263.7 239.6 269.4 239.7 323.6 103.8 101.0 103.6 101.5 142.7 159.3 133.0 132.2 102.5 179.9 209.1 264.1 240.0 269.8 239.8 324.7 103.7 100.9 103.2 102.1 143.6 160.2 127.8 127.0 103.1 179.9 209.5 264.8 241.1 270.4 240.3 325.3 103.7 100.7 103.6 102.3 143.7 160.4 126.6 125.8 103.6 180.6 210.2 267.1 242.3 273.0 242.6 328.5 104.1 101.2 103.9 114.9 284.8 330.8 92.1 115.3 285.2 332.1 93.1 115.4 284.8 332.5 92.3 115.5 285.4 332.7 93.0 130.6 124.4 159.2 155.3 101.4 142.3 159.1 146.8 146.0 104.4 182.5 209.3 271.4 246.6 277.3 245.8 335.1 105.0 101.6 104.0 116.4 290.7 91.3 97.0 92.3 98.3 91.5 97.5 92.2 98.4 115.8 289.2 333.3 93.3 92.4 98.E 129.3 1316.0 125.2 122.6 154.9 153.9 149.7 150.7 101.9 102.2 142.8 143.3 160.4 159.9 124.1 127.5 123.3 126.8 104.7 104.0 181.7 181.5 210.0 212.1 270.0 268.9 244.9 243.8 275.9 274.9 244.8 244.1 332.8 331.0 104.3 104.3 101.6 101.6 104.3 104.0 116.0 116.1 290.8 290.4 334.0 333.7 93.7 93.2 92.7 92.2 99.4 98.7 105.5 149.7 135.1 134.4 141.6 129.1 131.9 128.2 127.0 131.4 124.9 156.1 152.1 101.8 142.7 159.7 133.6 132.8 104.2 181.9 208.3 270.8 245.7 276.8 245.6 333.6 105.0 101.7 104.1 107.0 155.7 141.6 129.6 149.4 129.2 127.8 128.0 119.7 105.0 153.8 139.8 149.1 145.7 128.8 125.4 125.5 115.5 108.4 172.3 111.6 177.8 175.4 198.9 189.6 124.2 203.6 105.4 150.8 136.3 138.1 142.6 129.1 132.2 127.5 127.8 25.9 25.C 24.7 24.5 23.6 23.2 22.9 53.5 258.5 355.E 41.1 271.1 394. 38.8 274.7 408.C 38.C 273.C 396.' 37.C 276.5 411.C 36.5 274.C 396.E 35.C 275.9 404.; 161.1 151.E 1717 165.6 153.' 178. 166.6 154.; 179.8 167.C 153/ 180.; 167/ 153.5 167.E 155.5 181.: 168.2 155.: 181.6| 33.9 277.2 408.E 168.E 155.; 181.2 174.0 521.1 170.5 170.0 170.2 190.7 156.6 175.1 524.5 171.4 170.9 171.3 191.1 158.0 175.8 526.7 171.8 171.3 171.8 191.9 159.5 161.9 206.2 174.1 521.5 169.5 168.9 168.8 189.0 155.5 161.4 207.3 161.5 215.1 163.6 212.6 138.0 156.7 154.6 148.7 173.4 137.4 155.8 153.9 149.7 172.0 137.9 156.0 153.0 146.5 173.3 136.7 156.3 153.5 150.2 172.7 107.7 170.0 110.0 175.5 171.4 194.6 185.3 106.8 170.3 110.5 175.9 171.7 195.2 186.1 110.0 170.4 111.0 176.4 171.6 195.2 186.8 108.9 170.8 111.1 176.5 171.9 195.1 187.6 118.1 199.9 118.5 200.5 113.9 201.2 108.8 201.8 104.2 143.8 129.1 133.7 134.8 129.0 130.4 129.1 124.2 104.2 143.1 128.3 137.6 133.6 128.7 104.7 145.3 130.6 144.9 135.6 128.6 132.8 130.4 127.9 104.5 142.7 127.7 140.3 132.7 128.9 131.8 131.3 124.8 130.6 123.8 153.3 149.1 100.8 142.8 155.8 129.3 128.6 101.5 177.3 209.6 260.8 238.1 266.0 137.7 317.3 103.3 101.0 102.5 127.4 124.9 154.7 150.4 130.8 125.3 154.4 150.4 100.4 141.4 156.2 135.2 134.3 101.7 178.7 213.0 263.1 239.4 268.7 239.3 322.5 103.8 101.5 102.9 107.0 261.7 308.4 96.0 95.5 100.1 112.5 279.9 324.0 93.6 92.8 98.5 30.5 173.7 520.3 169.4 168.9 169.0 188.6 156.9 174.0 521.2 169.6 169.1 169.1 190.1 156.8 159.6 203.1 172.2 515.8 168.4 167.8 167.9 188.3 154.5 160.7 204.6 161.6 204.6 134.3 153.5 152.3 148.3 168.9 137.8 155.6 154.0 147.4 172.2 104.9 165.1 105.2 169.7 107.5 169.0 109.0 174.7 163.9 187.3 177.5 112.3 192.9 101.3 128.8 113.5 91.4 120.9 126.7 169.6 193.4 183.9 117.5 198.7 103.7 137.9 122.8 129.7 128.0 128.2 131.3 131.1 123.3 129.6 129.7 121.5 129.0 125.7 144.4 140.5 100.1 142.9 152.0 100.7 100.1 100.5 171.9 197.7 250.6 230.7 255.1 229.2 299.5 102.1 100.7 101.2 166.6 499.0 164.6 164.1 164.2 185.0 147.9 me 174.7 197.6 188.9 119.1 105.4 108.9 106.6 154.8 140.5 123.8 148.6 129.2 193.1 125.2 207.3 106.6 152.7 138.0 122.1 146.0 129.1 175.1 115.3 180.4 177.4 202.0 193.9 116.8 208.1 106.7 150.6 135.7 125.3 143.1 129.4 126.3 125.8 117.5 122.6 122.5 111.6 122.6 121.4 112.1 126.8 123.7 120.3 127.3 122.1 158.3 154.0 101.1 141.7 158.9 142.0 141.3 104.4 182.7 216.3 272.5 248.1 278.3 246.5 336.6 104.8 101.3 104.4 124.5 121.3 154.4 149.9 100.8 141.2 158.3 125.6 124.9 105.1 183.4 216.1 273.1 248.5 278.9 246.8 337.9 105.0 101.7 104.8 117.2 295.1 337.2 93.6 126.3 121.9 153.3 148.8 100.5 140.3 158.0 121.9 121.2 104.9 184.0 213.7 274.4 249.1 280.5 247.7 341.2 105.1 101.7 129.3 122.9 155.5 151.2 100.2 140.2 157.3 131.4 130.7 105.2 185.1 212.7 105.8 275.0 249.6 281.0 247.9 342.6 105.2 101.3 106.6 121.7 305.4 92.5 99.6 119.5 298.0 343.9 93.5 92.4 99.6 92.3 99.C 91.8 98.7 116.9 293.9 336.2 93.1 92.1 99. C 22.1 21.7 21/ 21.2 20.7 20.3 32/ 277.' 407.' 31.7 277.7 424.2 30/ 281.; 418." 29.E 281.2 421.C 29.C 285.E 441.2 27.E 283.; 424.( 169. 155.' 182.21 169.E 155.E 183/ 169.f 153.: 184.11 170.C 154.« 184. | 170." 155.1 184.E 171.2 154." 185.2 26.7 287.8 444.C 171.9 22.E 116.1 290.8 334.1 93.3 335.0 92.9 350.0 93.1 92.0 99.2 155.5 185.5 R a p fnptnotps at pnrl nf tahlp https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monthly Labor Review November 2001 Current Labor Statistics: Price Data 28. Continued—Consumer Price Indexes for All Urban Consumers and for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers: U.S. city average, by expenditure category and commodity or service group [1982-84 = 100, unless otherwise indicated]_______________________ A n n u a l a v e ra g e 2000 2 00 1 S e r ie s 1999 Miscellaneous personal services................ Commodity and service group: Commodities................................................. Food and beverages.................................... Commodities less food and beverages........... Nondurables less food and beverages......... Apparel.................................................. Nondurables less food, beverages, and apparel........................................... Durables................................................... Services..................................................... Rent of shelter3.................................. Transportation services.............................. Other services............................................ Special indexes: All Items less food....................................... All items less shelter................................... All items less medical care........................... Commodities less food.............................. Nondurables less food................................ Nondurables less food and apparel............... Nondurables........................................... Services less rent of shelter3........................ Services less medical care services............... Energy....................................................... All items less energy................................... All items less food and energy.................... Commodities less food and energy............ Energy commodities.............................. Services less energy................................ 2000 S e p t. O c t. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. M a r. A p r. M ay June J u ly Aug. S e p t. 243.0 252.3 254.0 255.1 255.7 255.7 257.3 258.6 259.5 260.2 261.0 261.8 263.2 265.5 266.4 144.4 164.6 132.5 137.5 131.3 149.2 168.4 137.7 147.4 129.6 150.3 169.4 138.8 149.9 130.4 150.4 169.6 138.9 149.9 132.8 150.6 169.5 139.3 150.2 131.8 150.0 170.5 137.8 147.2 127.8 150.0 171.4 137.4 146.4 125.4 150.6 171.8 138.1 147.7 128.4 150.7 172.2 138.0 147.9 132.2 151.9 172.4 139.7 151.0 131.9 152.9 172.9 140.8 153.5 129.8 152.1 173.4 139.4 151.3 126.3 150.4 174.0 136.5 146.3 122.6 149.8 174.4 135.4 144.8 122.6 151.5 174.6 138.0 149.6 126.8 146.0 126.0 188.8 195.0 190.7 223.1 162.5 125.4 195.3 201.3 196.1 229.9 165.9 124.8 197.2 202.6 197.2 231.5 164.7 125.0 197.6 203.3 197.0 232.6 165.7 125.5 197.6 203.2 198.0 232.4 163.1 125.9 198.0 203.1 198.3 233.0 163.2 125.9 200.2 204.5 199.1 234.1 163.7 125.9 201.0 205,7 200.3 234.8 161.9 125.5 201.8 207 2 200.2 235.4 167.0 125.4 201.9 P07 4 200.1 236.2 172.0 124.9 202.5 170.4 124.5 204.0 164.5 124.2 204.5 162.1 123.6 205.2 167.5 123.4 204.9 200.4 236.4 202.0 236.7 202.6 237.7 202.7 239.4 202.8 240.6 167.0 160.2 162.0 134.0 139.4 147.5 151.2 195.8 182.7 106.6 174.4 177.0 144.1 100.0 195.7 173.0 165.7 167.3 139.2 149.1 162.9 158.2 202.9 188.9 124.6 178.6 181.3 144.9 129.5 202.1 174.6 167.4 168.8 140.3 151.5 166.2 160.0 205.7 190.7 130.6 179.6 182.3 145.1 135.2 203.5 174.9 167.5 169.1 140.4 151.6 165.1 160.1 205.8 191.1 129.3 180.1 182.8 145.6 133.6 204.1 175.0 167.7 169.2 140.8 151.8 166.0 160.2 205.9 191.1 129.0 180.3 183.0 146.0 133.8 204.2 174.7 167.5 169.0 139.3 149.0 163.6 159.1 206.9 191.5 128.1 180.2 182.8 145.1 129.3 204.4 175.9 168.6 170.1 139.0 148.3 163.9 159.1 210.0 193.6 132.5 181.0 183.5 144.8 128.6 205.7 176.6 169.1 170.8 139.7 149.6 164.3 160..0 210.5 194.3 132.0 181.8 184.4 145.9 129.1 206.8 177.1 169.2 171.2 139.6 149.8 162.7 160.3 210.6 195.1 129.5 182.6 185.3 146.2 125.4 207.7 177.8 170.1 171.8 141.2 152.8 167.4 162.0 210.6 195.2 133.1 182.9 185.6 146.6 133.8 208.0 178.6 170.9 172.6 142.4 155.1 172.0 163.6 211.4 195.7 140.1 182.9 185.5 145.7 145.6 208.4 179.0 171.0 172.9 141.0 153.1 170.6 162.7 213.3 197.2 140.5 183.3 185.9 144.9 141.1 209.4 178.2 170.0 172.3 138.2 148.3 165.2 160.3 213.7 197.8 132.4 183.6 186.2 144.4 125.6 210.1 178.2 169.7 172.3 137.2 146.9 163.0 159.7 214.0 198.4 129.4 184.1 186.6 143.8 122.0 211.2 179.0 170.9 173.0 139.7 151.5 168.0 162.3 213.9 198.1 132.5 184.5 187.1 145.2 131.0 211.2 163.2 486.2 163.8 163.4 163.0 184.7 147.6 159.4 201.8 168.9 503.1 167.7 167.2 166.8 188.0 154.1 160.5 203.4 170.4 507.6 168.8 168.3 168.1 188.4 156.6 161.6 203.6 170.6 508.2 169.0 168.5 168.1 189.9 156.4 161.9 204.7 170.9 509.0 168.8 168.3 167.8 188.6 155.3 161.4 205.8 170.7 508.5 169.8 169 3 169.1 190.4 156.3 161.5 213.3 171.7 511.6 170.8 170,3 170.3 190.9 157.9 163.8 210.9 172.4 513.4 171.2 170 ft 170.8 191.7 159.2 163.5 210.1 172.6 514.2 171.6 173.5 516.7 171.9 174.4 519.4 172.3 174.6 520.0 172.8 173.8 517.8 173.4 173.8 517.6 173.8 171.1 191.7 160.0 163.1 209.8 171.3 192.2 160.7 163.5 211.7 171.8 192.9 160.6 164.7 211.5 172.4 193.9 161.4 166.9 210.5 173.0 194.5 162.1 168.3 209.5 173.3 195.6 162.0 168.9 208.0 174.8 520.6 174.0 173 r 173.4 194.8 162.3 169.4 211.0 133.2 152.8 152.2 147.9 168.8 104.6 165.0 105.1 168.8 160.0 181.6 177.1 122.2 175.7 101.6 128.7 113.0 91.7 120.4 124.7 130.1 131.2 121.3 130.3 126.2 143.4 140.7 100.4 136.9 155.1 153.9 147.2 172.3 107.1 169.0 109.2 173.8 165.4 187.4 183.4 117.3 180.8 103.9 137.4 121.8 128.8 127.5 125.5 128.3 129.7 119.3 132.3 124.2 152.8 150.1 101.4 137.1 156.1 154.4 148.5 173.5 107.5 170.0 110.4 174.4 167.3 188.7 184.8 118.3 181.9 104.4 143.4 128.2 133.1 134.4 126.1 128.7 128.8 121.5 129.0 124.8 154.2 151.4 101.0 136.6 155.3 153.8 149.4 172.0 106.3 170.3 110.9 174.8 167.5 189.3 185.6 118.6 182.4 104.4 142.5 127.2 136.7 133.0 125.8 131.3 130.3 125.5 132.6 125.5 154.0 151.3 101.4 137.1 155.4 152.7 146.3 173.4 109.6 170.5 111.2 175.6 167.6 189.5 186.2 113.9 183.0 104.7 142.0 126.5 139.3 132.1 126.0 130.5 131.3 122.6 132.7 125.7 154.9 152.2 102.2 135.8 155.8 153.3 149.9 173.0 108.6 170.8 111.4 175.8 168.1 189.6 187.0 108.7 183.5 104.9 144.6 129.3 144.1 134.8 125.6 126.6 128.0 117.5 130.0 124.0 153.9 151.2 102.8 138.7 157.3 155.4 152.8 174.0 108.5 171.4 111.5 176.5 170.2 190.6 187.7 113.8 184.1 105.2 153.2 138.6 150.1 144.8 125.7 124.1 125.8 113.2 129.0 121.5 154.0 151.2 102.9 139.3 157.3 155.6 152.4 174.1 108.5 171.8 111.6 177.0 170.5 191.5 188.3 118.5 184.5 105.3 151.5 136.6 145.0 143/0 125.9 127.0 126.9 118.4 131.0 122.4 154.5 151.7 102.8 138.8 158.2 155.6 153.0 175.4 108.5 172.3 111.8 177.2 171.0 192.6 189.0 123.8 185.2 105.6 149.9 134.8 138.0 141.5 125.9 130.6 127.6 125.2 133.3 125.2 153.3 150.5 102.5 138.2 157.1 153.7 151.4 174.6 108.4 172.7 112.0 177.6 171.0 192.9 189.6 121.2 185.7 105.8 148.8 133.6 133.9 140.4 126.0 130.5 128.3 124.7 133.2 125.2 155.8 153.2 102.4 137.2 159.1 155.8 154.3 176.5 108.7 173.1 112.5 178.0 171.7 193.5 190.4 119.9 186.3 106.9 150.8 135.7 131.5 142.9 125.7 128.5 129.2 120.2 132.0 124.5 159.2 156.6 102.0 137.8 159.1 155.5 156.4 176.0 108.0 173.5 112.8 178.4 173.0 194.4 191.0 123.2 187.0 107.2 155.2 140.5 129.2 148.5 125.9 125.2 126.3 115.6 128.6 122.1 157.9 155.1 101.7 138.0 160.0 156.0 157.4 177.2 109.9 174.0 114.0 179.2 173.3 195.0 191.7 123.7 187.5 106.7 154.4 139.5 123.1 147.8 125.8 121.9 122.9 110.2 126.2 121.4 153.4 150.4 101.4 139.3 160.5 156.1 158.0 177.9 109.7 174.7 114.4 179.7 173.5 195.9 192.4 124.4 188.5 106.8 152.2 137.0 121.5 145.2 125.7 121.6 121.6 110.1 128.3 122.0 152.5 149.5 101.0 138.4 159.8 156.2 158.1 176.5 109.2 175.0 115.6 180.1 173.2 196.0 193.3 116.8 189.2 106.8 150.1 134.7 125.3 142.2 126.0 125.6 123.7 118.3 131.1 123.0 155.1 152.3 100.7 CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR URBAN W AGE EARNERS AND CLERICAL WORKERS All items......................................................... All items (1967 « 100)...................................... Food and beverages....................................... Food........................................................... Food at home.............................................. Cereals and bakery products....................... Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs...................... Dairy and related products1......................... Fruits and vegetables................................. Nonalcoholic beverages and beverage materials................................................. Other foods at home................................... Sugar and sweets..................................... Fats and oils............................................ Other foods.............................................. Other miscellaneous foods1,2................... Food away from home1.................................. Other food away from home1,2.................... Alcoholic beverages...................................... Housing....................................................... Shelter........................................................ Rent of primary residence........................... Lodqinq away from home2.......................... Owners’ equivalent rent of primary residence3 Tenants' and household insurance1,2............ Fuels and utilities....................................... Fuels....................................................... Fuel oil and other fuels............................ Gas (piped) and electricity........................ Household furnishings and operations.......... Apparel......................................................... Men's and boys' apparel.............................. Women's and girls' apparel......................... Infants' and toddlers' aDDarel1...................... Footwear................................................... Transportation................................................ Private transportation.................................... New and used motor vehicles2..................... See footnotes at end of table. Monthly Labor Review Digitized for122 FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 28. Continued—Consumer Price Indexes for All Urban Consumers and for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers: U.S. city average, by expenditure category and commodity or service group [1982-84 = 100, unless otherwise indicated]________________________________________ 1999 New vehicles........................................... Used cars and trucks1............................... Motor fuel................................................. Gasoline (all types)................................... Motor vehicle parts and equipment.............. Motor vehicle maintenance and repair.......... Public transportation..................................... Medical care.................................................. Medical care commodities............................. Medical care services................................... Professional services.................................. Hospital and related services...................... Education and communication2....................... Education2................................................. Educational books and supplies................. Tuition, other school fees, and child care..... Information and information processing1,2... Telephone services1,2............................ Information and information processing other than teleDhone services1,4............ Personal computers and peripheral equipment1,2.................................. Other goods and services................................ Personal care1............................................ Personal care products1............................ Miscellaneous personal services................. Commodity and service group: Nondurables less food and beverages.......... Apparel.................................................. Nondurables less food, beverages, and apparel........................................... Durables................................................... Services...................................................... Rent of shelter3.......................................... Transportation services.............................. Other services............................................ Special indexes: All items less shelter................................... All items less medical care........................... Commodities less food................................ Nondurables less food................................ Nondurables less food and apparel............... Nondurables.............................................. Services less medical care services.............. Energy...................................................... Commodities less food and energy............ Services less energy............................... 1 Not seasonally adjusted. 2 Indexes on a December 1997 = 100 base. 3 Indexes on a December 1982 = 100 base. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 2000 2 00 1 2000 A n n u a l a v e ra g e S e rie s S e p t. O c t. Nov. D e c. Jan. Feb. M a r. A p r. M ay 22.2 22.0 21.5 21.2 31.1 288.2 424.8 169.4 156.0 183.9 260.0 29.9 286.8 419.8 169.3 153.8 184.7 260.7 29.4 287.9 421.6 169.9 155.4 184.8 261.6 28.7 293.8 441.9 170.6 155.9 185.4 263.2 27.4 290.0 425.6 170.9 155.5 185.9 264.9 26.6 295.5 444.7 171.4 156.1 186.1 265.6 151.4 171.6 139.3 149.3 130.6 152.8 171.9 141.2 153.1 130.5 153.9 172.3 142.6 156.2 128.5 153.0 172.8 141.1 153.6 125.2 151.2 173.4 138.0 148.2 121.9 150.5 173.8 136.9 146.5 121.6 152.5 174.0 139.8 152.0 125.6 166.5 126.6 197.2 184.4 197.2 230.6 164.4 126.2 197.8 185.5 197.2 231.2 170.5 126.0 198.0 185.8 197.2 231.9 176.3 125.5 198.7 186.3 197.6 232.2 174.1 125.2 200.1 187.2 198.9 232.6 167.3 124.8 200.6 187.8 199.5 233.6 164.8 124.3 201.2 188.7 199.8 235.1 171.4 124.1 201.1 188.7 200.1 235.9 172.5 167.0 168.0 141.0 151.1 166.8 160.8 186.9 190.8 131.3 178.2 180.1 146.2 129.1 203.1 172.8 167.0 168.2 140.8 151.1 164.9 160.9 187.0 191.4 128.6 178.8 180.9 146.8 125.1 204.0 173.8 168.0 169.1 142.7 154.7 170.5 163.0 187.0 191.6 132.9 179.2 181.3 147.3 134.2 204.4 174.7 169.1 170.0 144.1 157.6 175.9 164.8 187.8 192.3 140.6 179.2 181.2 146.4 146.6 204.8 174.9 169.0 170.2 142.6 155.3 173.9 163.8 189.6 193.6 140.3 179.5 181.4 145.6 141.5 205.7 173.9 167.8 169.4 139.6 150.1 167.7 161.2 189.9 194.2 131.3 179.8 181.7 145.4 125.0 206.3 173.7 167.5 169.3 138.5 148.5 165.4 160.5 190.1 194.7 128.6 180.1 181.9 144.6 122.1 207.3 174.9 168.8 170.3 141.3 153.8 171.5 163.5 189.9 194.6 132.6 180.7 182.6 146.0 132.1 207.6 143.8 160.9 134.0 133.3 103.5 183.4 202.7 269.9 241.0 276.5 247.8 329.1 103.7 101.2 104.2 116.4 294.7 328.2 94.4 93.8 99.2 143.4 160.2 147.4 146.7 103.6 184.1 203.5 270.4 241.7 277.0 248.0 330.6 103.7 101.1 104.1 116.7 294.5 329.1 94.0 93.4 98.8 25.9 25.5 25.1 24.6 24.0 23.8 23.3 22.8 40.5 276.5 395.2 165.5 154.2 178.6 251.9 38.5 280.9 408.2 166.5 155.1 180.3 253.4 37.8 278.2 397.0 166.8 153.9 180.8 254.5 36.7 282.3 411.3 167.1 154.2 181.1 255.1 35.9 279.2 396.9 167.7 155.8 181.7 255.3 34.3 281.5 404.6 168.1 155.7 182.1 257.0 33.4 283.2 409.2 168.5 155.7 182.4 258.4 31.8 283.5 408.5 169.0 155.9 182.8 258,3 144.7 163.8 133.2 138.1 130.1 149.8 167.7 139.0 149.1 128.3 151.0 168.8 140.2 151.8 128.7 151.0 169.0 140.2 151.6 131.3 151.4 168.8 140.8 152.1 130.5 150.6 169.8 139.1 148.6 126.6 150.8 170.8 138.8 148.1 124.1 151.4 171.2 139.5 149.4 127.0 147.2 126.0 185.3 174.9 187.9 219.6 165.3 125.8 191.6 180.5 192.9 225.9 169.3 125.3 193.4 181.7 193.7 227.3 167.6 125.6 193.9 182.3 193.9 228.4 168.8 126.2 194.0 182.5 195.0 228.1 165.5 126.6 194.5 182.6 195.2 228.9 166.0 126.6 196.6 183.6 196.0 229.9 163.1 158.1 159.2 134.6 140.0 148.4 151.3 174.1 179.5 106.1 171.1 173.1 144.3 100.3 192.6 169.1 163.8 164.7 140.4 150.7 165.4 158.9 180.1 185.4 124.8 175.1 177.1 145.4 129.7 198.7 170.7 165.4 166.2 141.6 153.3 169.2 160.8 182.5 187.2 130.9 176.0 178.0 145.7 135.4 200.0 170.9 165.5 166.4 141.6 153.1 167.7 160.8 182.7 187.6 129.3 176.5 178.6 146.1 133.5 200.6 171.3 165.7 166.6 142.2 153.6 168.8 161.0 182.8 187.7 129.0 176.8 179.0 146.7 133.8 200.8 170.9 165.5 166.4 140.6 150.3 165.8 159.7 183.7 188.3 127.6 176.8 178.7 145.8 128.9 201.1 171.9 166.5 167.4 140.3 149.9 166.3 159.9 186.6 190.3 131.8 177.4 179.3 145.5 128.5 202.2 31.6 26.8 53.1 261.9 356.2 161.3 152.5 171.7 243.1 S e p t. 22.4 143.8 161.1 124.1 123.4 104.0 183.3 204.2 269.1 240.2 275.7 247.0 328.3 103.0 101.0 104.4 116.3 294.7 327.9 94.8 94.1 99.5 142.7 141.4 141.3 158.2 132.4 131.7 104.4 186.7 207.0 273.9 244.6 280.7 250.1 338.3 103.8 100.6 106.5 121.7 309.8 342.9 94.3 93.6 99.4 144.5 161.7 127.8 127.1 103.4 183.1 205.8 268.1 239.1 274.7 246.4 326.6 103.1 101.2 104.1 116.2 294.1 327.4 94.4 93.7 98.9 142.7 Aug. 159.0 122.0 121.3 104.1 185.6 207.7 273.4 244.1 280.2 249.9 337.0 103.9 101.0 105.8 119.6 302.2 337.3 94.7 94.0 99.8 144.8 161.7 126.9 126.2 103.0 182.1 204.3 266.3 237.8 272.8 244.9 323.9 103.0 100.8 104.0 116.0 292.9 327.0 94.4 93.8 99.0 142.5 157.5 135.3 134.6 100.9 180.2 206.4 262.2 235.0 268.5 241.3 318.2 102.8 101.1 102.9 115.1 288.6 324.7 93.1 92.6 97.1 J u ly 160.0 142.1 141.1 103.6 184.4 209.5 271.5 243.2 278.0 248.7 332.0 103.5 100.7 104.5 117.2 298.2 330.3 94.3 93.6 99.2 159.3 133.1 132.3 101.0 180.9 202.4 262.8 235.2 269.2 241.8 319.2 102.8 100.7 103.7 115.4 289.0 325.7 94.2 93.8 98.6 144.6 161.6 127.7 126.9 102.3 181.5 203.7 263.8 236.5 270.1 242.3 320.9 102.6 100.3 103.7 115.7 289.2 326.5 94.1 93.6 98.6 143.9 157.1 129.5 128.8 100.9 178.8 203.4 259.9 233.6 265.9 239.6 313.2 102.4 100.7 102.7 112.8 283.3 318.2 94.6 94.1 98.7 June 142.3 159.3 124.9 124.2 104.3 185.0 209.5 272.0 243.6 278.5 249.0 333.5 103.7 101.1 104.9 117.6 299.3 331.3 94.8 94.0 99.7 143.7 160.7 133.2 132.4 101.8 181.4 203.2 263.1 235.5 269.4 241.7 320.3 102.7 100.6 103.2 115.6 288.6 326.3 93.3 92.8 97.6 144.0 153.3 100.8 100.2 100.0 173.3 193.1 249.7 226.8 254.9 230.8 295.5 101.3 100.5 101.5 107.2 264.1 302.8 96.9 96.5 100.2 4 Indexes on a December 1988 = 100 base. Dash Indicates data not available. Note: Index applied to a month as a whole, not to any specific date. Monthly Labor Review November 2001 123 Current Labor Statistics: Price Data 29. Consumer Price Index: U.S. city average and available local area data: all items [1982-84 = 100, unless otherwise indicated] A ll U r b a n C o n s u m e r s P r ic in g A rea schedu le 1 U.S. city average........................................ 2C>00 Aug. U rb a n W a g e E a rn e r s 2 00 1 S e p t. M ay June J u ly 2000 Aug. S e p t. Aug. 2001 S e p t. M ay June J u ly Aug. S e p t. M 172.8 173.7 177.7 178.0 177.5 177.5 178.3 169.4 169.3 174.4 174.6 173.8 173.8 174.8 Size B/C—50,000 to 1,500,0003.............. M 179.9 180.8 108.0 168.2 170.0 107.1 162.5 168.0 167.9 107.8 167.8 175.9 177.6 108.3 180.7 181.7 108.3 170.0 171.5 108.6 164.5 168.5 168.4 108.1 168.2 176.6 178.4 108.8 184.6 185.6 110.8 174.2 175.6 111.6 167.9 171.7 171.9 110.1 171.0 Size A—More than 1,500,000.................. M M M M M M M M M M M M M 181.3 183.4 111.1 185.3 186.4 111.0 173.8 175.3 111.2 167.5 172.2 172.7 110.3 171.4 182.0 184.4 111.2 185.0 186.2 110.7 172.5 174.3 111.0 166.1 171.6 172.5 109.8 170.1 182.0 184.2 111.4 185.1 186.5 110.5 173.0 174.8 110.3 166.8 171.5 172.3 109.8 170.1 181.9 184.1 111.2 185.1 186.5 110.4 174.6 176.1 111.0 168.8 172.2 173.2 110.2 169.7 182.5 184.7 111.7 176.6 176.7 107.4 164.3 165.3 106.9 160.9 166.1 165.5 107.5 168.7 171.2 171.2 108.0 177.6 177.7 107.9 166.4 167.0 108.7 163.0 166.8 166.1 107.9 169.2 172.1 172.1 108.6 181.6 181.6 110.4 170.7 171.0 112.0 166.4 170.0 169.7 109.9 172.0 176.7 177.0 110.9 182.1 182.3 110.5 170.1 170.5 111.4 165.8 170.3 170.5 110.0 172.3 177.3 177.9 110.9 181.8 182.1 110.1 168.4 169.3 109.8 164.2 169.7 170.3 109.5 170.8 177.2 177.8 111.0 181.7 182.2 109.8 168.9 169.8 110.1 164.9 169.4 169.8 109.3 170.7 176.9 177.4 110.8 181.9 182.2 109.9 170.8 171.3 111.8 167.1 170.3 170.9 110.0 170.8 177.6 178.1 111.4 M M M 157.0 107.8 167.6 157.8 108.3 168.7 161.6 110.7 171.9 162.1 110.8 172.1 161.8 110.3 171.0 161.9 110.2 171.2 162.5 110.8 172.0 155.4 107.4 166.8 156.4 108.2 167.9 160.2 110.7 171.1 160.6 110.6 171.2 160.2 109.9 169.8 160.1 109.8 170.0 160.9 110.6 171.1 Chicago-Gary-Kenosha, IL—IN—Wl........................ Los Angeles-Riverside-Orange County, CA......... M M 173.7 172.2 179.8 177.5 179.2 178.9 177.7 178.3 178.1 178.4 179.7 178.8 168.0 165.3 169.2 166.3 174.0 170.5 173.4 171.9 171.7 171.3 172.0 171.1 173.7 171.5 New York, NY-Northern NJ-Long Island, NY-NJ-CT-PA.. Boston-Brockton-Nashua, MA-NH-ME-CT............ Cleveland-Akron, OH............................. Dallas-Ft Worth, TX...................................... M 183.1 - 174.8 173.3 184.4 187.3 188.1 188.0 178.5 179.9 183.0 183.8 183.5 183.5 190.9 173.7 169.4 110.1 188.3 _ 187.8 184.3 170.5 166.9 108.7 192.1 173.4 171.5 110.8 _ 192.7 174.6 172.8 111.7 183.2 162.8 166.8 108.7 190.1 165.6 169.1 109.9 - - Region and area size2 Northeast urban.......................... Size A—More than 1,500,000................... Size B/C—50,000 to 1,500,0003........... Midwest urban4.................................... Size A—More than 1,500,000................ Size B/C—50,000 to 1,500,0003............. Size D—Nonmetropolitan (less than 50,000)................ South urban.......................................... Size A—More than 1,500,000...................... Size B/C—50,000 to 1.500.0003......................... Size D—Nonmetropolitan (less than 50,000)........... West urban...................................... Size classes: A5................................ B/C3.............................. Selected local areas6 Washinqton-Baltimore, DC-MD-VA-WV7 Atlanta, GA................................ Detroit-Ann Arbor-Flint, Ml.......................... Houston-Galveston-Brazoria, TX....................... Miami-Ft. Lauderdale, FL.......................... Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City, PA-NJ-DE-MD.... San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, CA................. Seattle-Tacoma-Bremerton, WA....................... 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 172.1 170.1 154.4 168.4 177.5 181.7 180.3 - - - - - - - 1 Foods, fuels, and several other items priced every month in all areas; most other goods and services priced as indicated: M—Every month. 1— January, March, May, July, September, and November. 2— February, April, June, August, October, and December. 2 Regions defined as the four Census regions. 3 Indexes on a December 1996 - 100 base. 4 The "North Central" region has been renamed the "Midwest" region by the Census Bureau. It is composed of the same geographic entities. 5 Indexes on a December 1986 - 100 base. In addition, the following metropolitan areas are published semiannually and appear in tables 34 and 39 of the January and July issues of the C P I D e t a ile d R e p o r t : Anchorage, AK; Cincinnati-Hamilton, OH-KY-IN; Denver-Boulder-Greeley, CO; Honolulu, HI; Kansas City, 124 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 - 177.8 175.8 159.6 173.5 182.5 190.9 186.3 _ - - - 176.9 175.1 158.6 173.5 182.8 191.0 186.8 _ _ _ _ - _ _ - 169.6 164.6 153.1 165.8 177.1 177.8 175.4 _ _ _ _ _ _ - _ _ _ _ _ - _ _ 175.4 170.4 158.4 171.2 182.0 186.9 181.3 191.3 164.9 171.6 110.6 _ _ _ _ - _ _ 183.6 192.0 166.5 172.6 111.6 174.2 169.4 157.0 170.9 182.2 186.7 181.5 MO-KS; Milwaukee-Racine, Wl; Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI; Pittsburgh, PA; Port land— Salem, OR— WA; St Louis, MO-IL; San Diego, CA; Tampa— St. Petersburg— Clearwater FL. 7 Indexes on a November 1996 - 100 base. Dash indicates data not available. NOTE: Local area CPI indexes are byproducts of the national CPI program. Each local index has a smaller sample size and is, therefore, subject to substantially more sampling and other measurement error. As a result, local area indexes show greater volatility than the national index, although their long-term trends are similar. Therefore, the Bureau of Labor Statistics strongly urges users to consider adopting the national average CPI for use in their escalator clauses Indey annlies to a month as a w hole no* to anv soecific Hate - 30. Annual data: Consumer Price Index, U.S. city average, all items and major groups [ 1982- 8 4 = 100] S e rie s Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All items: Index........................................................................ Percent change....................................................... Food and beverages: Index........................................................................ Percent change....................................................... Housing: Index....................................................................... Percent change....................................................... Apparel: Index........................................................................ Percent change....................................................... Transportation: Index............................. .......................................... Percent change....................................................... Medical care: Index........................................................................ Percent change....................................................... Other goods and services: Index........................................................................ Percent change....................................................... Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers: All items: Index........................................................................ Percent change....................................................... https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 1 99 2 1 993 1 99 4 1 99 5 1998 1 99 9 2000 160.5 2.3 163.0 166.6 1.6 2.2 153.7 3.2 157.7 161.1 164.6 2 .6 2.2 2.2 152.8 2.9 156.8 160.4 2.3 163.9 2.2 169.6 3.5 132.0 - 1.0 131.7 132.9 .9 133.0 131.3 -1.3 129.6 -1.3 134.3 3.0 139.1 3.6 143.0 144.3 0.9 141.6 -1.9 144.4 153.3 2.0 6.2 201.4 5.9 211 .0 220.5 4.5 228.2 3.5 234.6 4.8 2.8 242.1 3.2 250.6 3.5 260.8 4.1 192.9 5.2 198.5 2.9 206.9 4.2 215.4 4.1 224.8 4.4 237.7 5.7 258.3 8.7 271.1 5.0 142.1 145.6 2.5 149.8 2.9 154.1 2.9 157.6 2.3 159.7 1.3 163.2 168.9 3.5 144.5 3.0 148.2 152.4 2 .6 2.8 138.7 1.4 141.6 144.9 2.3 148.9 2.1 137.5 2.9 141.2 2.7 144.8 2.5 148.5 131.9 2.5 133.7 1.4 133.4 - .2 126.5 2.2 130.4 3.1 190.1 7.4 183.3 138.2 2.9 1997 156.9 3.0 140.3 3.0 6.8 1 99 6 2.8 2.8 2 .6 -.2 2 .8 2.6 Monthly Labor Review .1 2 .2 November 2001 172.2 3.4 168.4 2.3 125 Current Labor Statistics: Price Data 31. Producer Price Indexes, by stage of processing [1982 = 100]__________________ G ro u p in g A n nu al average 1999 Finished goods........................................ Finished consumer goods..................... Finished consumer foods.................... Finshed consumer goods excluding foods................................ Nondurable goods less food............... Durable goods............................. Capital equipment................................ 2 000 2 000 S ept. 2001 O ct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. M ar. A pr. M ay June Ju ly A ug. S ept. 133.0 132.0 135.1 138.0 138.2 137.2 139.4 140.1 137.4 140.1 140.7 138.0 140.0 140.5 138.2 139.7 140.1 137.9 141.2 141.9 138.4 141.5 142.5 139.5 141.0 141.9 140.9 141.7 142.7 141.6 142.5 143.8 141.8 142.1 143.3 141.9 140.7 141.5 141.2 141.1 142.0 142.6 141 7 142 9 142.9 130.5 127.9 133.0 137.6 138.4 138.7 133.9 138.8 141.1 143.0 132.5 138.6 141.6 142.6 135.3 139.8 141.3 142.1 135.4 139.9 140.8 141.5 135.3 139.9 143.3 144.9 135.2 140.2 143.6 145.9 134.2 139.7 142.1 143.8 134.1 139.7 142.9 144.9 134.2 140.0 144.5 147.3 133.8 139.7 143.7 146.5 133.2 139.6 141.4 143.1 133.2 139.8 141 6 143.5 133.0 139.5 142 7 145.1 133 2 139.4 123.2 129.2 131.1 130.8 130.5 130.6 131.5 131.3 130.8 130.6 131.2 131.4 130.3 129.8 130.1 124.6 128.1 119.2 132.6 129.0 126.2 128.5 119.0 133.6 129.3 126.4 128.4 119.1 133.7 128.8 126.4 128.0 118.9 133.3 127.5 126.5 128.1 119.8 133.5 128.0 126.1 128.6 120.4 135.0 127.2 126.4 128.8 120.3 136.1 127.0 126.2 128.9 122.3 135.8 126.7 126.4 128.7 122.3 135.2 126.0 126.6 128.6 124.6 134.2 126.9 126.4 128.3 125.7 133.4 126.5 126.4 127.5 126.1 131.9 125.3 126.2 126 9 128 1 130 1 124 6 126.2 12 fi fi 127 fi 1?9 9 124 2 125.9 150.7 150.3 110.5 153.3 137.4 150.2 109.2 153.4 137.7 150.1 108.8 153.0 138.0 149.9 108.3 153.0 138.1 149.6 111.4 153.0 138.9 150.0 109.9 153.0 138.5 150.2 106.9 152.8 138.7 150.4 105.9 153.2 139.0 151.6 108.1 153.9 139.0 151.7 151.0 106.8 153.6 138.8 151.0 106.0 153.2 138.7 150 8 108.4 153.0 138.6 126.0 97.6 141.0 130.3 99.5 146.7 128.4 100.4 143.0 136.2 103.9 153.5 155.0 105.3 183.5 133.2 104.5 148.2 131.5 108.9 142.2 132.9 109.1 144.5 130.9 110.3 140.4 109.7 127.4 116.1 109.6 116.3 113.4 108.9 112.4 108 0 108.5 103.8 139.9 140.6 99.6 146.0 148.6 149.2 140.4 98.9 146.1 148.7 149.2 140.1 97.9 145.9 148.5 149.1 141.9 101.9 146.7 149.4 150.0 142.0 103.6 146.6 149.5 149.4 140.9 99.7 147.1 150.2 149.5 141.6 144.8 147.5 147.8 147.5 150.6 149.8 142.6 104.1 147.7 151.6 150.0 142.0 102.7 147.6 150.9 149.9 140.5 97.0 147.5 150.7 149.9 140.5 97.8 147.7 151.1 149.7 147.9 151.4 149.8 Intermediate materials, supplies, and components...................... Materials and components for manufacturing................................... Materials for food manufacturing............ Materials for nondurable manufacturing.. Materials for durable manufacturing....... Components for manufacturing............... 124.9 125.1 125.7 Materials and components for construction................................... Processed fuels and lubricants................. Containers..................................... Supplies..................................... 148.9 84.6 142.5 134.2 Crude materials for further processing................................................. Foodstuffs and feedstuffs........................ Crude nonfood materials.......................... 120.8 102.0 151.6 136.9 98.2 98.7 94.3 120.6 100.2 130.4 110.2 154.1 138.8 122.8 Special groupings: Finished goods, excluding foods............... Finished energy goods................... Finished goods less energy..................... Finished consumer goods less energy...... Finished goods less food and energy....... Finished consumer goods less food and energy.......................................... 132.3 78.8 143.0 145.2 146.1 138.1 94.1 144.9 147.4 148.0 151.7 154.0 154.0 155.5 155.4 155.3 156.5 155.9 156.1 156.4 156.9 156.7 Consumer nondurable goods less food and energy...................................... 156.8 156.6 156.8 166.3 169.8 170.9 171.3 171.2 171.0 173.2 173.2 173.5 174.0 175.4 175.5 175.5 175.3 175.6 123.9 132.2 131.5 111.7 107.6 135.2 131.5 113.5 107.9 135.3 132.4 115.1 110.9 135.8 132.3 113.6 109.5 135.8 131.7 114.1 106.4 136.0 131.6 114.0 105.5 136.0 132.1 114.9 107.6 136.1 132.3 116.3 109.7 135.9 131.0 117.1 106.3 135.3 130.4 119.4 105.6 134.9 130 7 118 7 107.9 134.7 100.6 101.2 141.3 100 1 Intermediate materials less foods and feeds................................................ Intermediate foods and feeds................... Intermediate energy goods...................... Intermediate goods less energy................ Intermediate materials less foods and energy........................................... 84.3 131.7 130.1 111.7 101.7 135.0 135.4 131.9 111.5 108.8 135.4 133.1 136.6 137.0 137.0 136.8 136.8 137.1 137.3 137.4 137.4 137.5 137.2 136.5 136.0 135.8 Crude energy materials............................ Crude materials less energy.................. Crude nonfood materials less energy........ 78.5 107.9 135.2 122.1 136.7 109.2 142.9 144.8 140.9 109.9 137.8 | 154.7 112.4 137.5 193.4 113.7 138.7 148.3 112.4 136.1 141.0 115.2 134.6 145.2 114.3 130.8 139.8 115.3 130.9 123.1 114.8 130.6 109.0 114.3 129.4 104.2 113.6 128.4 93 1 113.3 128.5 Monthly Labor Review Digitized for126 FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 111.1 111.7 145.2 I 111.1 110.1 November 2001 110.1 141.0 32. Producer Price Indexes for the net output of major industry groups [December 1984 = 100, unless otherwise indicated] 2001 2000 A nnu al average In dustry S IC 1999 _ Total mining industries.................................. Metal mining................................................ Coal mining (12/85 = 100)............................ Oil and gas extraction (12/85 - 100)............. 13 Mining and quarrying of nonmetallic 14 minerals, except fuels................................ 10 12 _ 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 2000 Sept. O ct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. M ar. Apr. M ay June July Aug. Sept. 128.9 73.3 84.1 147.7 139.6 170.8 73.5 83.6 204.4 138.2 72.4 90.8 159.4 130.7 132.2 70.0 90.6 151.5 103.4 70.4 90.9 112.9 100.4 73.1 90.3 149.3 127.5 71.4 92.2 144.9 115.5 73.5 84.8 162.0 69.6 89.9 109.4 92.6 70.6 92.5 98.3 78.0 70.3 87.3 78.5 113.5 73.8 84.8 126.8 124.7 75.2 83.5 141.9 131.8 75.1 83.6 151.5 71.0 87.7 129.6 134.0 137.0 138.0 138.0 138.0 138.2 139.3 140.1 140.8 140.8 140.7 141.8 141.6 141.2 141.4 Total manufacturing industries..................... Food and kindred products........................... Tobacco manufactures................................ Textile mill products..................................... Apparel and other finished products made from fabrics and similar materials...... Lumber and wood products, except furniture.......................................... Furniture and fixtures................................... Paper and allied products............................. 128.3 126.3 325.7 116.3 133.5 128.5 345.8 116.7 134.7 128.5 351.1 116.6 134.9 128.7 351.6 116.8 134.9 128.8 351.6 117.0 134.4 129.6 351.8 117.5 134.7 130.1 372.4 117.4 134.7 130.4 372.4 117.9 134.6 131.7 372.3 117.0 135.4 132.5 372.1 117.0 136.3 133.2 391.2 117.1 136.0 133.8 391.7 117.2 134.6 133.9 391.1 116.9 134.8 134.7 391.0 116.6 135.6 134.7 139.1 116.5 125.3 125.7 125.9 126.0 125.7 125.9 125.7 125.7 125.7 125.9 125.8 125.7 125.9 126.1 125.9 161.8 141.3 136.4 158.1 143.3 145.8 155.3 143.5 147.7 155.0 143.7 147.6 154.5 143.8 147.5 154.2 143.8 147.0 153.2 144.2 147.4 153.8 144.3 147.0 154.5 144.8 147.0 154.7 144.7 147.0 160.5 144.9 146.9 161.3 145.2 146.8 158.2 145.3 146.4 157.5 145.2 145.4 156.9 145.3 145.5 Printing, publishing, and allied industries...... Chemicals and allied products...................... Petroleum refining and related products....... Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products. Leather and leather products....................... Stone, clay, glass, and concrete products..... 177.6 149.7 76.8 182.9 156.7 184.9 158.6 136.5 132.6 115.8 124.6 137.9 134.6 119.8 120.2 185.0 158.3 121.9 126.5 138.8 134.3 119.0 185.1 159.0 114.4 124.8 138.9 134.1 119.2 186.8 160.4 112.5 126.0 139.1 134.4 118.5 187.2 161.6 122.2 183.6 158.3 125.1 125.4 138.4 134.8 120.5 126.1 140.6 135.0 118.0 187.6 161.9 107.3 126.8 140.9 135.4 117.4 188.4 161.4 114.1 127.4 142.8 135.6 116.8 188.8 160.4 120.9 126.6 142.9 136.0 116.9 188.4 160.0 116.9 126.4 142.6 135.7 116.5 188.6 158.8 103.8 126.5 141.9 135.9 116.1 188.9 156.3 106.8 126.0 142.1 135.9 115.8 188.8 156.4 115.4 125.2 141.3 136.4 115.2 129.1 130.3 130.5 130.6 130.5 130.5 130.6 130.7 130.8 131.2 131.1 131.1 131.1 131.1 131.1 117.3 117.5 117.6 117.6 117.7 117.7 117.7 117.8 117.8 118.0 118.0 118.1 118.1 118.0 117.8 109.5 134.5 108.3 136.8 108.1 135.7 108.0 138.4 107.9 138.6 107.7 138.4 107.7 138.7 107.6 137.6 107.5 137.9 107.5 138.1 107.4 137.4 107.3 137.1 106.9 137.3 106.4 137.2 106.4 137.2 125.7 126.2 126.3 126.4 121.8 126.4 126.9 127.1 126.9 126.9 127.3 127.4 127.2 127.4 127.5 130.3 130.9 131.0 131.0 131.2 131.3 131.7 131.9 132.3 132.2 132.5 132.5 132.7 132.3 132.6 114.8 135.3 113.0 130.8 98.3 119.4 135.2 121.2 121.4 135.2 126.5 152.5 102.7 121.8 121.5 135.2 126.1 154.2 102.7 121.9 141.3 125.8 154.7 109.1 122.5 141.3 127.8 154.0 109.1 122.6 141.3 126.8 155.4 108.9 122.7 141.3 125.9 155.4 108.9 123.0 141.3 125.6 156.4 109.0 123.2 141.3 130.3 156.6 109.0 123.3 145.4 131.8 157.6 110.9 123.4 145.4 132.0 159.1 123.6 145.4 140.9 158.6 111.3 Fabricated metal products, except machinery and transportation equipment........................... Electrical and electronic machinery, equipment, and supplies............................ Measuring and controlling instruments; photographic, medical, and optical goods; watches and clocks........................ Miscellaneous manufacturing industries industries (12/85 - 100)............................. 112.8 121.8 125.3 138.4 134.5 112.0 Service industries: 42 43 44 45 46 Motor freight transportation and warehousing (06/93 = 100).................. Water transportation (12/92 - 100)............... Pipelines, except natural qas (12/92 = 100).... https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 122.6 147.7 102.3 135.2 127.0 151.5 102.4 135.2 124.2 152.7 102.7 Monthly Labor Review 111.2 November 2001 127 Current Labor Statistics: 33. Price Data Annual data: Producer Price Indexes, by stage of processing [1982 = 100] In d e x 1 99 2 1 993 1 99 4 1 995 1 99 6 Finished goods Total......................................................... Foods............................................................... Energy.............................................. Other................................................... 123.2 123.3 77.8 134.2 124.7 125.7 78.0 135.8 125.5 126.8 77.0 137.1 114.7 113.9 84.3 122.0 116.2 115.6 84.6 123.8 118.5 83.0 127.1 100.4 105.1 78.8 94.2 102.4 108.4 76.7 94.1 106.5 72.1 97.0 1997 ... 130.7 75.1 143.7 Intermediate materials, supplies, and components Total.............................................................. Foods............................................................ Energy............................................................ Other............................................................. 1 99 8 _ 1 99 9 133.0 135.1 78.8 146.1 138.0 137.2 94.1 148.0 123.2 129.2 119.2 101.7 136.6 120.8 133.5 2000 84.3 133.1 Crude materials for further processing Total............................................................ Foods......................................................... Energy.................................................... Other.................................................................... 128 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 101.8 96.8 103.9 68.6 105.8 105.7 103.5 84.5 98.2 98.7 78.5 91.1 120.6 100.2 122.1 118.0 34. U.S. export price Indexes by Standard International Trade Classification [1995= 100] 2001 2000 sue In dustry Rev. 3 Sept. Jan. Feb. 88.7 105.9 75.8 88.9 89.8 105.4 78.8 86.9 107.1 76.4 72.2 90.6 76.2 82.6 103.3 85.0 85.9 85.9 73.2 90.6 74.7 O ct. Nov. 88.5 107.6 74.0 89.8 82.2 144.0 100.7 162.8 145.1 101.7 165.4 153.7 102.5 180.0 60.6 61.6 65.0 67.1 69.1 77.9 77.9 93.4 99.4 103.4 92.7 96.7 98.5 92.8 99.7 103.0 91.2 96.8 98.6 91.6 99.6 102.9 89.9 96.1 98.3 91.0 99.7 102.9 89.1 96.5 98.5 89.8 100.4 102.3 86.5 97.1 98.0 89.0 85.3 96.0 98.0 88.7 101.3 102.3 83.6 96.3 98.4 100.4 104.7 100.1 104.3 104.0 99.9 104.0 99.7 104.1 99.3 104.8 98.5 105.3 97.5 105.3 85.0 107.0 98.5 85.0 107.2 94.5 85.4 107.2 91.6 159.5 93.1 185.2 152.4 93.6 172.4 156.0 100.2 59.0 58.7 61.0 60.8 94.0 93.0 100.2 100.1 103.3 91.2 98.3 99.1 103.2 90.0 98.3 99.9 93.1 99.7 103.4 90.5 96.6 98.4 92.9 99.6 103.2 91.5 96.5 98.5 101.0 100.6 104.4 88.6 Petroleum, petroleum products, and related materials.... 61.7 60.0 94.4 94.9 100.4 103.4 92.3 98.9 99.2 103.4 92.8 99.3 99.2 153.6 100.7 177.0 157.5 93.1 181.1 162.1 93.1 193.4 100.2 178.4 159.0 100.4 184.4 157.4 93.0 183.6 157.2 93.3 189.0 5 Chemicals and related products, n.e.s.......................... Medicinal and pharmaceutical products........................ 54 Essential oils; polishing and cleaning preparations........ 55 Plastics in primary forms............................................. 57 Plastics In nonprimary forms......................................... 58 Chemical materials and products, n.e.s........................ 59 68.0 77.5 123.2 76.0 80.9 75.2 64.1 89.2 72.2 166.3 93.1 203.3 3 32 33 79.9 80.6 73.6 63.0 89.4 71.7 74.4 94.5 82.7 78.3 70.6 60.8 91.1 67.1 78.4 119.2 75.0 81.6 80.6 64.8 89.4 73.0 88.6 89.8 112.5 76.2 90.4 75.7 90.3 87.2 80.7 69.9 61.8 90.5 79.7 107.5 79.0 83.5 82.3 67.6 89.9 72.5 79.3 86.5 89.2 Sept. 76.8 104.3 85.7 81.1 71.4 62.6 90.4 69.2 80.9 106.5 78.1 84.3 83.6 70.6 90.9 74.7 102.1 A ug. 77.0 82.0 105.6 83.9 85.2 85.8 70.4 90.9 74.1 83.5 104.7 81.3 87.2 89.8 72.0 90.7 79.5 July 88.5 110.4 73.2 91.2 86.2 83.7 100.5 83.8 86.9 90.7 72.2 91.5 78.7 June 87.8 110.7 73.5 88.4 87.9 110.8 Crude materials, inedible, except fuels......................... Hides, skins, and furskins, raw...................................... Oilseeds and oleaginous fruits...................................... Cork and wood............................................................. Pulp and waste paper.................................................. Textile fibers and their waste....................................... Crude fertilizers and crude minerals............................. Metalliferous ores and metal scrap............................... 24 25 26 27 28 M ay 88.6 87.1 107.4 70.8 88.7 2 A pr. 109.8 74.7 89.5 85.9 105.2 67.8 91.9 21 22 M ar. 89.1 107.1 77.2 87.8 Food and live animals.............................. ..................... Meat and meat preparations......................................... Cereals and cereal preparations................................... 04 Vegetables, fruit, and nuts, prepared fresh or dry.......... 05 0 01 Dec. 88.6 74.7 87.4 111.0 111.0 74.8 91.8 101.0 102.2 6 101.1 100.8 62 64 104.7 104.6 100.5 104.1 100.4 103.8 90.0 106.1 105.0 89.9 105.8 104.9 89.6 105.9 103.4 89.1 105.6 104.9 106.2 109.1 88.4 106.2 108.1 87.8 106.0 106.5 87.7 106.5 103.1 87.6 106.6 101.6 87.0 107.0 99.5 97.4 112.4 106.3 97.3 112.4 106.3 97.4 113.7 106.5 97.4 113.7 106.6 97.5 115.2 106.8 97.6 115.2 107.1 97.9 14.7 106.8 97.8 115.0 106.7 97.8 115.0 106.7 97.6 115.0 106.6 97.5 115.1 105.9 97.4 115.5 105.8 97.3 115.7 105.9 108.2 67.8 108.3 67.7 108.4 67.8 108.5 67.6 108.6 67.1 108.8 67.1 109.2 109.5 66.7 109.5 110.1 110.1 66.2 109.6 65.5 110.1 66.8 65.3 64.8 64.7 77 78 96.8 85.8 104.1 96.6 85.4 104.0 96.5 85.3 103.9 96.3 85.4 104.0 96.5 85.2 104.1 96.4 85.2 104.1 96.4 85.2 104.1 96.5 84.8 104.1 96.5 84.8 104.1 96.5 84.5 104.1 96.5 84.0 104.1 95.3 84.0 104.1 95.1 83.8 104.1 87 Professional, scientific, and controlling instruments and apparatus......................................... 106.5 106.9 106.9 106.6 107.0 107.0 107.0 106.8 106.9 107.1 106.9 106.9 107.1 Manufactured goods classified chiefly by materials.... Rubber manufactures, n.e.s......................................... Paper, paperboard, and articles of paper, pulp, and paperboard......................................................... Nonmetallic mineral manufactures, n.e.s...................... 66 68 7 Machinery and transport equipment............................. Power generating machinery and equipment............... 71 Machinery specialized for particular Industries............. 72 General industrial machines and parts, ri.e.s., 74 75 76 Telecommunications and sound recording and https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monthly Labor Review November 2001 129 Current Labor Statistics: 35. Price Data U.S. import price indexes by Standard International Trade Classification [1995 = 100] SITC Rev. 3 0 2(X)0 Industry Sept. Food and live animals.............................................. Oct. 2001 Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. 102.6 May Meat and meat preparations..................... Fish and crustaceans, mollusks, and other aquatic invertebrates....................... Vegetables, fruit, and nuts, prepared fresh or dry........ Coffee, tea, cocoa, spices, and manufactures thereof......................................... 91.2 99.0 91.5 95.5 90.2 95.7 112.6 110.7 100.9 109.3 96.8 54.5 54.1 51.9 50.8 50.5 51.1 51.1 52.1 50.8 Beverages and tobacco............................................... 11 Beverages...................................... 113.6 110.7 113.5 113.3 110.7 113.2 113.2 110.5 113.3 113.0 110.4 113.2 110.7 114.8 112.5 01 03 05 07 1 2 Crude materials, Inedible, except fuels........................ Cork and wood...................................... Pulp and waste paper............................ Metalliferous ores and metal scrap.............................. Crude animal and vegetable materials, n.e.s................ 97.8 88.9 99.7 82.0 110.6 89.8 87.7 97.7 83.4 92.4 97.3 92.8 95.5 91.3 96.1 93.0 100.4 109.1 104.5 107.4 106.1 105.6 101.7 102.2 100.1 109.5 102.3 110.6 110.8 90.8 87.5 107.0 87.6 111 5 99.7 100.5 98.8 97.1 95.6 97.8 95.3 97 6 94 5 9ft n 49.8 47.2 45.8 46.2 114.4 114.4 114.9 114.9 112.2 112.2 112.2 112.2 122.0 60 6 100.1 99.1 3 Mineral fuels, lubricants, and related products............ 33 Petroleum, petroleum products, and related materials... 34 Gas, natural and manufactured........................... 189.0 187.6 218.1 186.3 181.8 242.6 188.4 183.3 249.3 180.2 163.9 331.8 5 Chemicals and related products, n.e.s......................... 52 Inorganic chemicals.......................................... 53 Dying, tanning, and coloring materials.......................... 54 Medicinal and pharmaceutical products........................ 55 Essential oils; polishing and cleaning preparations........ 57 Plastics in primary forms.......................... 58 Plastics in nonprimary forms...................... 59 Chemical materials and products, n.e.s........................ 95.4 92.5 87.9 96.7 94.7 93.7 86.9 95.7 87.2 95.9 79.5 100.4 95.0 94.2 86.9 95.7 86.9 95.8 78.6 95.1 87.1 95.5 80.3 101.1 95.1 93.1 87.0 96.0 87.6 96.0 80.0 100.4 100.6 101.8 101.6 95.8 84.4 101.9 97.9 91.7 97.6 91.6 97.2 91.5 97.3 91.8 98.2 91.8 98.7 91.9 97.3 91.8 96.3 91.6 95.5 91.5 92.1 100.7 92.6 100.5 124.0 95.0 92.8 100.5 116.4 94.9 93.7 100.3 110.9 95.7 92.8 100.3 107.0 95.7 6 62 64 66 68 69 Manufactured goods classified chiefly by materials.... Rubber manufactures, n.e.s.................... Paper, paperboard, and articles of paper, pulp, and paperboard...................................... Nonmetallic mineral manufactures, n.e.s...................... Nonferrous metals........................ Manufactures of metals, n.e.s............... 88.8 95.3 80.8 91.4 Sept. 87.7 107.4 103.0 101.6 87.5 95.6 84.3 Aug. 88.5 104.3 83.4 102.3 104.3 101.6 July 89.8 104.4 88.5 101.7 83.4 98.8 97.1 24 25 28 29 June 86.1 86.6 100.8 102.0 88.9 97.6 82.9 100.9 115.3 97.5 80.4 98.1 97.7 102.9 76.8 98.1 91.8 89.5 114.1 72.5 97.0 100.7 93.7 132.7 68.3 95.4 98.6 87.9 117.6 65.5 95.9 85.7 87.4 119.0 62.2 94.6 86.0 94 4 88.9 177.1 152.0 401.0 169.9 153.9 316.9 154.1 144.7 244.5 153.1 143.5 244.4 158.2 150.6 233.5 153.5 149.4 200.0 143.1 141.3 168.4 144.7 143.9 162.3 146 8 146 1 164.0 95.8 98.5 96.3 98.9 89.6 94.9 96.6 97.9 89.1 94.6 96.3 95.0 88.4 94.0 88.6 88.1 95.5 84.5 95.8 83.2 101.4 93.8 87.4 96.8 82.1 100.3 93.7 90.8 86.5 96.0 87.1 96.8 80.7 99.6 92.8 89.5 88.2 95.7 92.4 87.9 93.8 87.7 95.7 83.1 100.5 94.3 87.1 95.2 80.7 99.5 92 6 89 7 84 5 94 1 88 9 94.4 79 5 99.4 95.3 91.2 94.1 91.0 92.5 90.9 92.3 90 9 89.2 99 9 91.6 95.0 88.8 91.6 91.9 92.2 100.8 100.2 100.2 100.2 114.4 95.4 115.7 95.2 114.3 94.9 114.4 95.0 121.0 89.3 95.9 89.2 95.7 89.1 95.4 89.0 95.3 88.9 95.9 88.8 88.8 96.6 96.3 88.4 96.0 96.1 59.8 95.5 58.8 95.3 58.8 95.4 58.7 95.9 58.3 95.9 57.8 95.6 57.5 95.1 56.5 84.1 82.6 83.7 82.5 102.9 83.6 82.2 102.9 83.0 82.1 102.9 82.8 81.8 82.8 82.5 82.1 82.1 95.3 94.7 91.5 86.1 86.6 88.1 91.9 91.0 100.0 100.0 106.1 95.6 101.7 94.9 89.9 99.8 92.9 94.9 88.2 88.1 95.8 95.7 87.9 95.1 87.8 95.2 87.7 95 7 94.7 56.4 94.6 56.2 94.4 55.3 92.4 55.1 94 4 54.1 82.0 81.7 82.0 81.6 102.4 81 6 81.5 102.7 7 Machinery and transport equipment............................. 72 Machinery specialized for particular industries.............. 74 General industrial machines and parts, n.e.s., and machine parts............................... 75 Computer equipment and office machines.................... 76 Telecommunications and sound recording and reproducing apparatus and equipment...................... 77 Electrical machinery and equipment......................... 78 Road vehicles......................................... 102.6 83.9 82.7 102.9 102.8 102.8 102.6 82.0 82.0 102.4 102.6 82.1 81.8 102.4 85 Footwear.............................................. 100.9 100.8 100.7 100.6 101.0 101.2 101.5 101.1 101.0 100.8 100.9 101.2 101.2 88 Photographic apparatus, equipment, and supplies, and optical aoods. n.e.s............................... 91.4 91.4 91.0 90.7 91.2 91.3 91.4 90.6 90.6 90.3 89.7 89.7 90.0 130 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 36. U.S. export price indexes by end-use category [1995 = 100] 2000 C ategory Sept. Oct. 2001 Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. ALL COMMODITIES..................................................... 96.6 96.5 96.5 96.3 96.5 96.5 96.2 96.1 95.9 95.6 95.3 95.1 95.2 Foods, feeds, and beverages................................... Agricultural foods, feeds, and beverages................ Nonagricultural (fish, beverages) food products..... 85.3 84.3 97.9 85.8 84.6 99.5 86.7 85.7 98.2 87.4 86.7 96.3 88.2 86.6 86.6 86.2 86.8 85.7 97.0 85.9 95.3 85.9 91.0 86.5 90.9 87.9 87.5 93.1 88.7 87.3 98.6 87.3 86.4 97.6 88.8 88.5 88.7 88.5 91.2 Industrial supplies and materials.................... ........... 96.6 96.2 95.8 95.0 95.0 94.9 93.9 93.8 93.1 92.3 90.8 90.0 90.4 Agricultural industrial supplies and materials.......... 81.9 82.3 82.0 82.9 82.4 82.6 80.7 80.7 81.0 78.8 78.1 77.1 76.8 Fuels and lubricants................................................ Nonagricultural supplies and materials, excluding fuel and building materials.................... Selected building materials..................................... 155.0 146.9 150.7 146.2 145.2 147.1 139.8 144.8 147.7 143.2 135.0 136.0 143.8 91.4 89.4 91.6 89.8 90.7 89.0 90.1 89.0 90.4 90.1 88.0 86.8 86.3 87.6 87.0 86.4 87.2 85.7 88.2 89.8 87.4 89.2 88.8 85.5 85.6 96.2 99.9 91.5 96.1 99.5 91.5 96.2 99.6 91.5 96.3 99.7 91.5 96.4 96.6 100.9 91.1 96.4 100.9 90.9 96.3 100.9 90.7 96.1 96.1 100.8 915.0 96.6 100.5 91.3 100.8 91.5 96.5 100.5 91.5 96.7 100.0 90.4 90.4 104.5 104.5 104.4 104.4 104.6 104.5 104.6 104.7 104.7 104.7 104.7 104.7 104.7 102.2 102.3 102.4 102.2 102.0 102.1 102.0 101.7 101.8 102.1 102.0 102.0 101.2 101.2 101.0 101.0 Durables, manufactured......................................... 101.3 101.2 101.2 101.1 101.3 101.5 101.5 101.7 101.3 101.7 102.2 101.9 101.3 101.5 101.8 102.2 101.3 101.2 101.2 101.4 101.5 101.5 101.7 Agricultural commodities............................................ Nonagricultural commodities...................................... 83.5 98.0 83.9 97.9 84.7 97.8 85.7 97.5 86.1 84.9 97.7 85.1 97.5 84.7 97.4 84.7 97.1 84.8 96.9 85.5 96.4 86.4 96.1 96.3 Nonelectrical machinery......................................... Consumer goods, excluding automotive................... https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 97.7 100.1 Monthly Labor Review 86.8 November 2001 86.1 131 Current Labor Statistics: 37. Price Data U.S. import price indexes by end-use category [1995 = 100] 2000 C a te g o ry S e p t. 2001 O c t. N o v. D ec. Jan. F eb . M a r. A p r. M ay June J u ly Aug. S e p t. ALL COMMODITIES..................................................... 101.0 100.6 100.6 100.0 100.0 99.3 97.8 97.2 97.5 97.1 95.6 95.4 95.5 Foods, feeds, and beverages.................................... Agricultural foods, feeds, and beverages................ Nonagricultural (fish, beverages) food products..... 90.7 82.5 112.5 90.7 83.0 111.2 89.4 81.9 109.5 91.0 84.2 109.1 90.8 84.3 107.9 89.8 83.4 106.7 90.6 85.6 103.9 88.9 83.8 102.4 88.7 83.5 102.1 87.6 82.2 101.4 86.5 81.9 98.6 86.6 82.0 98.4 87.0 82.8 97.8 Industrial supplies and materials................................ 127.6 126.6 126.9 124.5 124.4 122.3 116.1 115.4 116.7 115.6 110.5 110.0 110.6 Fuels and lubricants................................................ Petroleum and petroleum products..................... 187.4 187.1 184.5 181.9 186.8 183.6 178.7 165.6 176.7 155.7 169.3 156.1 153.3 145.9 152.3 144.2 157.4 151.0 153.1 149.5 142.6 141.4 144.3 143.8 146.3 145.7 Paper and paper base stocks................................. Materials associated with nondurable supplies and materials.......................................... Selected building materials..................................... Unfinished metals associated with durable goods.. Nonmetals associated with durable goods............. 89.8 90 4 90.6 91.0 91.0 91.2 90.8 91.1 89.0 87.1 85.3 83.2 82.1 92.8 98.7 105.9 87.2 92.8 99.3 105.6 87.3 92.6 97.2 104.1 87.1 93.3 99.1 103.7 87.2 94.1 95.3 107.2 87.8 94.3 96.0 108.7 88.7 94.4 96.2 103.8 88.8 93.9 98.3 101.1 88.5 93.1 104.8 98.2 88.2 92.1 116.3 97.6 88.0 90.5 107.9 95.3 87.5 90.0 107.7 91.2 87.6 89.9 108.7 90.9 87.8 Capital goods............................................................. Electric and electrical generating equipment.......... Nonelectrical machinery......................................... 80.6 93.5 76.8 80.2 93.4 76.4 80.1 93.1 76.3 80.0 93.1 76.1 79.9 93.1 76.0 79.7 92.9 75.8 68,7 95.2 75.6 79.2 94.7 75.0 68,1 94.9 74.8 79.0 94.9 74.7 78.7 94.7 74.3 78.6 94.4 74.2 78.3 94.6 73.9 Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines................... 102.5 102.6 102.7 102.7 102.7 102.6 102.6 102.5 102.3 102.3 102.2 102.1 102.4 Consumer goods, excluding automotive.................... Nondurables, manufactured................................... Durables, manufactured.......................................... Nonmanufactured consumer goods........................ 96.6 99.8 93.0 99.6 96.6 99.8 92.8 99.8 96.5 99.8 92.8 99.1 96.4 99.6 92.8 98.8 96.6 92.9 92.9 99.5 9.5.6 99.8 92.8 101.5 96.6 100.1 92.8 99.1 96.4 100.0 92.5 98.0 96.4 100.0 92.3 99.4 96.2 99.8 92.1 99.0 96.1 99.9 91.9 97.4 96.1 100.0 92.0 97.2 96.0 99.6 92.1 97.7 38. U.S. international price Indexes for selected categories of services [1995= 100] 1 99 9 C a te g o ry S e p t. 2000 D ec . M a r. June 2001 S e p t. D ec . M a r. June S e p t. Air freight (inbound)....................................................... Air freight (outbound)..................................................... 87.9 92.7 90.7 91.7 88.9 91.7 88.4 92.8 88.5 92.6 87.4 92.6 86.5 92.6 84.0 90.5 83.7 90.1 Air passenger fares (U.S. carriers)................................ Air passenger fares (foreign carriers)........................... Ocean liner freight (inbound)........................................ 114.2 108.6 148.0 106.8 102.2 139.4 107.3 102.6 136.3 113.3 107.9 143.0 115.5 109.1 142.8 111.9 103.2 142.8 114.2 106.4 145.1 119.2 109.7 142.3 120.6 116.4 138.0 132 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 39. Indexes of productivity, hourly compensation, and unit costs, quarterly data seasonally adjusted [1992= 100]__________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 99 9 1 99 8 Ite m III IV I II 2001 2000 III IV I II III IV I II III Business Output per hour of all persons..................................... Compensation per hour............................................... Real compensation per hour.............................. ......... Unit labor costs............................................................ Unit nonlabor payments............................................... Implicit price deflator..................................................... 110.8 120.3 105.0 108.6 114.5 110.7 111.8 121.6 105.7 108.8 114.6 110.9 112.5 123.0 106.4 109.3 115.1 111.4 112.7 124.3 106.8 110.4 114.2 111.8 114.0 125.9 107.4 110.5 114.4 111.9 116.1 127.1 107.6 109.5 116.9 112.2 115.0 129.0 108.1 112.1 114.2 112.9 117.1 131.7 109.6 112.5 115.2 113.5 117.4 133.8 110.3 114.0 113.9 113.9 118.2 136.8 112.0 115.7 112.1 114.4 118.2 138.2 112.3 117.2 111.8 115.2 118.9 140.4 113.0 118.1 111.6 115.7 119.5 141.8 113.9 118.6 112.0 116.2 110.5 119.8 104.5 108.4 115.7 111.0 111.4 120.9 105.1 108.6 115.8 111.2 111.9 122.1 105.6 109.0 116.7 111.8 112.0 123.4 106.0 110.2 115.8 112.2 113.4 125.0 106.6 110.2 116.1 112.4 115.6 126.3 107.0 109.3 118.6 112.7 114.5 128.4 107.6 112.1 116.0 113.5 116.3 130.7 108.8 112.4 116.7 114.0 116.7 133.0 109.7 114.0 115.4 114.5 117.4 135.9 111.3 115.8 113.5 114.9 117.4 137.6 111.5 117.2 113.1 115.7 118.0 139.2 112.0 117.9 113.0 116.1 118.8 140.7 113.0 118.5 113.3 116.6 113.1 116.7 101.8 102.5 103.2 100.7 152.0 113.8 106.7 113.7 117.8 102.4 103.2 103.6 102.1 145.3 113.1 106.8 114.6 119.0 103.0 103.2 103.9 101.3 150.6 113.9 107.2 115.3 120.3 103.3 103.7 104.3 102.2 148.6 114.0 107.5 116.6 121.8 103.9 104.0 104.5 102.9 144.4 113.5 107.5 118.3 123.0 104.2 103.9 104.0 103.4 147.0 114.5 107.5 117.7 124.7 104.5 105.9 106.0 105.5 134.3 112.9 108.3 119.7 127.2 105.8 106.0 106.2 105.3 137.8 113.6 108.7 120.9 129.3 106.6 106.6 106.9 105.6 133.8 112.8 108.9 121.4 132.3 108.3 108.2 109.0 106.0 118.5 109.2 109.0 121.5 134.1 108.7 109.6 110.3 107.5 109.2 107.9 109.5 122.6 136.1 109.5 110.6 111.1 109.3 105.6 108.4 110.2 - 125.7 118.0 103.0 93.9 126.8 119.0 103.4 93.9 128.9 119.9 103.7 93.0 130.2 121.2 104.1 93.1 131.9 122.8 104.7 93.1 135.0 124.1 105.2 91.9 135.2 125.9 105.5 93.2 137.3 128.1 106.6 93.3 139.4 131.2 108.3 94.1 141.3 135.2 110.7 95.7 140.0 137.2 111.3 98.0 140.3 139.3 112.1 99.3 Nonfarm business Output per hour of all persons....................................... Compensation per hour................................................ Real compensation per hour......................................... Unit labor costs.............................................................. Unit nonlabor payments................................................ Implicit price deflator..................................................... Nonfinancial corporations Output per hour of all employees................................. Compensation per hour................................................ Real compensation per hour......................................... Total unit costs.............................................................. Unit nonlabor payments................................................ Implicit price deflator..................................................... _ _ - - Manufacturing Output per hour of all persons....................................... Compensation per hour................................................ Real compensation per hour......................................... Unit labor costs.............................................................. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monthly Labor Review November 2001 140.7 141.1 113.3 100.3 133 Current Labor Statistics: 40. Productivity Data Annual indexes of multifactor productivity and related measures, selected years [1996 = 100, unless otherwise indicated] Ite m 1 96 0 1 97 0 1 98 0 1 990 1991 1 99 2 1 99 3 1 99 4 1 99 5 1 996 1997 1998 Private business Productivity: Output per hour of all persons.................................... Output per unit of capital services.............................. Multifactor productivity................................................ Output................................................................. Inputs: Labor input................................................................. Capital services.............................................. Combined units of labor and capital input.................. Capital per hour of all persons...................................... 45.6 110.4 65.2 27.5 63.0 80.0 42.0 75.8 101.5 88.3 59.4 90.2 99.3 95.3 83.6 54.0 24.9 42.3 41.3 61.0 37.8 52.4 56.7 71.9 58.6 67.3 74.7 89.4 84.2 87.7 90.8 48.7 64.9 118.3 82.6 41.9 77.3 105.7 90.5 59.6 39.3 40.5 59.3 35.5 50.7 54.8 70.7 56.4 65.9 73.1 89.2 83.5 87.3 90.3 41.8 124.3 72.7 38.5 54.2 116.5 84.4 56.5 70.1 100.9 101.6 75.3 99.3 97.3 92.0 30.9 51.3 38.2 28.2 52.9 104.2 48.5 85.4 44.8 48.8 67.0 107.5 74.7 92.5 75.0 73.7 87.0 104.8 95.8 99.9 92.5 92.5 98.0 111.1 91.3 96.1 94.4 82.6 94.8 97.7 96.6 85.7 95.4 98.5 97.1 88.5 96.6 100.3 98.1 92.8 97.3 99.7 98.4 95.8 88.3 86.0 89.3 87.7 87.5 95.0 97.0 91.8 89.8 91.1 96.8 95.6 92.6 94.6 96.3 98.0 96.0 97.3 97.6 91.4 96.6 94.7 82.5 94.8 97.9 96.6 85.5 95.3 98.8 97.1 88.4 96.5 100.3 98.1 92.6 97.5 99.9 98.6 95.8 88.0 89.0 87.3 88.4 96.8 91.8 89.5 91.0 96.5 95.4 92.3 94.4 96.3 97.8 95.9 97.2 97.6 100.0 109.0 105.0 105.0 113.4 104.5 106.1 116.9 88.8 104.8 100.0 102.0 100.0 100.5 100.1 100.0 101.1 102 .6 100.0 105.2 110.6 100.0 103.7 104.7 104.0 101.5 106.4 110.4 107.7 104.7 104.5 99.8 102.4 100.0 100.0 100.0 Private nonfarm business Productivity: Output per hour of all persons.................................... Output per unit of capital services.............................. Multifactor productivity................................................ Output........................................................ Inputs: Labor input...................................................... Capital services......................................................... Combined units of labor and capital input.................. Capital per hour of all persons...................................... 120.1 69.1 27.2 50.1 2 2 .6 90.3 100.0 95.6 83.5 85.4 87.1 94.7 100.0 101.7 100.0 100.2 100.0 100.9 105.1 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 110.6 103.8 104.9 104.2 101.5 108.0 104.7 117.1 105.6 109.8 123.5 124.3 106.5 113.2 130.7 105.5 116.9 103.9 120.4 114.2 112.5 105.2 106.6 110 .8 Manufacturing (1992 = 100) Productivity: Output per hour of all persons..................................... Output per unit of capital services.............................. Multifactor productivity................................................ Output............................................................... Inputs: Hours of all persons..................................................... Capital services........................................................... Energy...................................................... Nonenergy materials.................................................... Purchased business services...................................... Combined units of all factor inputs.............................. Monthly Labor Review Digitized for134 FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 86.6 92.8 95.0 97.5 98.3 95.4 100.0 101.9 100.0 101.1 105.0 104.0 100.0 100.4 103.3 108.7 100.0 100.4 97.9 100.0 101.4 100.0 102.2 100.1 100.0 93.6 92.1 97.0 100.0 103.7 105.7 103.0 102.9 100.0 100.0 102.6 103.6 104.5 107.3 111.3 105.1 106.0 104.0 108.0 109.5 112.8 110.0 103.7 111.9 107.0 120.4 108.9 107.9 110.2 112.8 122.8 109.2 127.2 116.8 115.5 41. Annual indexes of productivity, hourly compensation, unit costs, and prices, selected years [1992 = 100] Item 1 96 0 1 970 1 98 0 1 990 1991 1 993 1994 1 995 1 99 6 1997 1998 1999 2000 Business 48.8 13.7 60.0 28.0 25.2 27.0 67.0 23.5 78.9 35.1 31.6 33.9 80.4 54.2 89.4 67.4 61.5 65.2 95.2 90.7 96.5 95.3 93.9 94.8 96.3 95.0 97.5 98.7 97.0 98.1 51.9 14.3 62.8 27.5 24.6 26.5 68.9 23.7 79.5 34.4 31.3 33.3 82.0 54.6 90.0 66.5 60.5 64.3 95.3 90.5 96.3 95.0 93.6 94.5 96.4 95.0 97.5 98.5 97.1 98.0 55.4 15.6 68.3 26.8 28.1 23.3 50.2 30.2 28.8 70.4 25.3 84.7 34.8 35.9 31.9 44.4 35.1 35.6 81.1 56.4 93.1 68.4 69.6 65.1 97.7 95.3 97.8 98.8 97.5 68.4 95.4 90.8 96.7 95.9 95.2 98.0 94.3 97.1 95.8 41.8 14.9 65.2 35.6 26.8 30.2 54.2 23.7 79.5 43.8 29.3 34.9 70.1 55.6 91.7 79.3 80.2 79.8 92.8 90.8 96.6 97.8 99.7 99.0 100.5 102.5 99.9 101.9 102.5 102.2 101.9 104.5 99.7 102.6 106.4 104.0 102.6 105.4 106.7 99.3 104.1 109.4 106.0 110.1 107.8 113.5 99.7 104.5 113.3 107.7 105.3 117.1 109.7 100.6 119.6 104.6 108.0 115.1 113.8 125.1 107.1 109.9 115.1 110.6 111.8 113.6 113.9 113.7 110.4 119.0 104.0 107.7 116.3 113.2 124.2 106.4 109.7 116.8 112.3 116.2 132.0 109.4 113.6 115.4 114.2 116.2 119.9 128.3 106.4 106.7 107.0 105.6 131.0 110.8 116.9 132.8 110.1 Nonfarm business 100.5 101.8 102.8 102.2 104.3 99.5 102.5 106.9 104.1 106.6 99.2 103.7 110.4 106.1 105.4 109.8 99.4 104.2 113.5 107.6 107.5 113.1 99.5 103.1 104.2 99.4 104.2 106.2 98.8 107.5 109.0 98.7 112.3 115.9 101.3 101.0 101.1 102.0 101.2 108.4 110.3 97.8 101.5 101.8 103.2 100.9 156.9 115.2 106.2 101.2 99.6 101.7 103.0 102.2 100.2 105.2 118.0 109.8 110.8 Nonfinancial corporations 68.8 66.0 100.7 102.0 101.3 101.0 101.9 101.4 102.1 100.2 100.6 139.0 102.1 101.3 131.7 109.0 103.7 102.2 93.0 99.7 98.3 113.2 103.5 152.2 113.8 105.5 95.0 95.6 98.1 101.9 102.7 105.0 105.6 100.2 100.8 109.0 107.9 100.4 99.0 106.9 103.9 111.6 105.1 102.6 148.9 113.4 106.6 121.1 103.7 103.7 104.2 102.5 147.6 114.0 107.4 112.1 108.7 Manufacturing 100.6 100.8 100.7 99.0 99.6 100.9 100.9 102.8 102 .0 112.8 109.3 99.0 96.9 109.9 104.9 117.1 111.4 98.8 95.1 109.6 104.0 124.3 117.3 129.6 102.6 104.5 94.1 105.5 94.4 104.4 100.5 122.0 46.3 130.1 107.8 94.1 101.1 Dash indicates data not available. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monthly Labor Review November 2001 135 Current Labor Statistics: 42. Productivity Data Annual indexes of output per hour for selected 3-digit SIC industries [1987 = 100]__________________ In d u s tr y S IC 1 99 0 1991 1 99 2 1 99 3 1 994 1 995 1 996 1997 1 99 8 1 99 9 M in in g Copper ores........................................................... Gold and silver ores................................................ Bituminous coal and lignite mining........................ Crude petroleum and natural gas........................... Crushed and broken stone.................................... 102 104 122 131 142 102.7 122.3 118.7 97.0 102.2 100.5 127.4 122.4 97.9 99.8 97.1 107.3 95.6 105.4 92.7 99.6 108.3 99.2 104.9 90.6 104.6 111.4 100.5 107.8 93.8 104.3 109.6 106.8 109.2 94.4 107.6 108.4 96.4 103.2 118.1 117.0 99.2 113.2 102.0 104.5 106.2 101.7 107.6 99.8 114.1 127.1 101.5 103.1 111.3 96.5 107.5 83.4 115.2 141.6 133.0 126.0 160.8 148.1 112.4 108.7 117.2 144.2 155.9 119.4 105.4 116.5 138.3 168.0 123.9 107.2 118.9 158.5 176.6 125.2 118.3 187.6 188.0 127.4 105.0 118.1 159.8 141.2 105.9 103.6 112.6 110.2 101.2 102.3 116.4 109.1 115.4 97.3 97.4 116.0 109.2 108.0 95.6 102.5 119.3 110.7 118.2 99.1 102.3 119.3 117.8 126.2 100.8 130.4 107.5 108.3 120.3 133.5 102.9 142.9 113.8 116.7 110.1 120.2 135.0 109.1 147.2 135.5 104.1 147.2 123.0 137.3 136.4 112.7 152.2 130.0 156.1 132.4 116.3 135.8 137.3 147.6 126.3 150.3 79.2 131.2 162.2 134.1 81.2 134.0 145.3 118.9 138.3 78.5 136.2 168.6 117.7 135.9 99.1 138.7 171.9 122.4 144.8 95.8 137.4 123.7 123.4 135.5 147.4 123.1 134.7 141.6 102.3 153.0 161.3 84.3 116.8 109.2 102.1 105.5 2 00 .0 192.2 132.3 104.8 M a n u fa c tu rin g Meat products......................................................... Dairy products........................................................ Preserved fruits and vegetables............................ Grain mill products.................................................. Bakery products..................................................... Sugar and confectionery products......................... Fats and oils........................................................... Beverages.............................................................. Miscellaneous food and kindred products............. Cigarettes............................................................... Broadwoven fabric mills, cotton............................. Broadwoven fabric mills, manmade....................... Narrow fabric mills................................................. Knitting mills........................................................... Textile finishing, except wool.................................. 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 211 221 222 224 225 226 Carpets and rugs.................................................... Yarn and thread mills.............................................. Miscellaneous textile goods................................... Men's and boys' furnishings................................... Women's and misses' outerwear............................ 227 228 229 232 233 Women's and children's undergarments................ Hats, caps, and millinery......................................... Miscellaneous apparel and accessories................ Miscellaneous fabricated textile products.............. Sawmills and planing mills..................................... 234 235 238 239 242 Millwork, plywood, and structural members........... Wood containers..................................................... Wood buildings and mobile homes........................ Miscellaneous wood products................................ Household furniture................................................ 243 244 245 249 251 Office furniture........................................................ Public building and related furniture....................... Partitions and fixtures............................................. Miscellaneous furniture and fixtures....................... Pulp mills...................................................... 252 253 254 259 261 Paper mills.............................................................. Paperboard mills.................................................... Paperboard containers and boxes......................... Miscellaneous converted paper products.............. Newspapers.......................................................... 262 263 265 267 271 Periodicals............................................................... Books........................................................... Miscellaneous publishing........................................ Commercial printing................................................ Manifold business forms......................................... 272 273 274 275 276 93.9 96.6 92.2 102.5 93.0 Greeting cards......................................................... Blankbooks and bookbinding.................................. Printing trade services............................................. Industrial inorganic chemicals................................. Plastics materials and synthetics............................ 277 278 279 281 282 100.6 99.4 99.3 106.8 100.9 Drugs...................................................................... Soaps, cleaners, and toilet goods........................... Paints and allied products....................................... Industrial organic chemicals................................... Agricultural chemicals............................................. See footnotes at end of table. 283 284 285 286 287 103.8 103.8 106.3 101.4 104.7 Digitized for136 FRASER Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 93.2 110.2 109.2 102.1 104.1 102.1 89.2 90.6 99.9 99.8 98.0 111.2 103.1 107.7 104.5 95.0 119.8 95.6 103.5 116.7 102.3 100.6 101.3 101.4 90.6 120.1 111.8 112.6 111.8 111.6 126.4 105.2 106.5 130.1 100.9 126.6 110.3 126.2 112.9 119.3 78.6 117.8 131.7 111.4 127.9 79.3 122.1 116.2 99.6 114.0 79.9 89.2 111.4 104.6 108.4 104.3 96.1 119.6 106.5 109.1 109.4 97.1 126.6 110.4 108.4 121.8 93.3 130.7 118.5 111.7 127.4 113.7 91.1 91.8 100.7 102.6 117.4 93.6 91.3 107.5 108.1 124.5 87.2 94.0 108.5 101.9 138.0 77.7 105.5 107.8 103.3 98.0 113.1 103.0 110.5 107.1 99.9 109.4 103.1 114.2 110.5 97.0 103.8 115.3 94.5 100.9 98.3 111.8 110.6 112.5 94.1 128.3 102.5 140.6 102.7 99.5 137.3 103.2 161.0 107.4 103.6 122.5 100.5 157.4 98.9 104.7 128.9 99.2 101.4 103.4 105.3 85.8 103.3 104.4 105.2 105.5 81.5 102.4 108.4 107.9 107.9 79.4 110.2 89.5 89.1 92.9 97.7 105.8 108.0 94.5 89.5 103.5 104.5 106.9 91.1 81.9 103.0 97.5 106.5 82.0 92.7 96.1 96.7 103.6 91.4 98.7 115.3 105.6 89.0 105.4 120.0 111.2 120.2 93.0 102.1 100.8 95.9 102.0 100.6 112.0 109.7 100.0 109.7 107.5 104.5 105.3 104.3 95.8 99.5 99.5 104.4 102.9 94.6 99.5 100.1 112.0 99.7 108.7 108.8 92.2 103.8 142.5 120.1 114.9 108.4 110.6 79.9 111.0 102.3 125.3 104.6 111.2 116.7 99.9 105.0 110.2 100.2 174.5 82.2 120.1 105.6 115.6 110.8 138.0 94.3 102.2 114.1 120.0 101.0 100.3 150.4 118.7 162.1 149.9 174.7 151.9 97.8 169.5 127.0 187.0 174.5 208.9 87.1 101.4 119.2 116.9 216.4 99.5 107.7 117.2 118.7 293.0 108.7 105.8 129.2 125.4 89.1 106.2 100.3 123.4 121.3 91.3 106.6 99.2 131.2 125.8 90.7 105.0 96.8 141.3 128.7 113.1 207.6 125.6 121.9 86.6 109.8 210.9 127.0 122.7 88.4 120.1 92.7 106.1 97.0 115.4 116.9 92.4 106.7 96.7 114.4 101.1 106.4 181.5 97.5 113.2 132.6 118.3 214.9 118.6 119.5 105.1 113.3 79.0 111.6 112.0 118.0 106.3 113.6 77.4 126.7 109.7 119.5 79.0 114.9 127.8 113.5 122.9 83.6 122.7 131.0 113.5 127.3 86.3 87.8 89.1 99.3 93.6 108.3 75.2 173.3 101.2 110.0 131.9 101.6 94.8 107.2 76.9 92.5 108.7 116.7 109.3 128.3 108.7 118.6 118.0 98.6 108.5 121.6 121.1 110.7 82.3 100.1 115.0 102.6 101.0 114.5 108.8 77.9 119.5 109.9 76.7 115.1 105.4 128.3 115.2 73.6 92.2 114.2 123.3 116.8 135.4 104.2 116.4 126.7 145.8 142.2 103.9 123.3 120.5 170.7 145.7 112.5 120.9 125.6 99.0 112.4 126.4 126.4 110.0 119.8 104.3 122.7 126.8 105.7 117.5 104.8 116.8 125.6 111.3 106.9 90.8 114.5 126.2 110.1 125.3 111.2 42. Continued— Annual indexes of output per hour for selected 3-digit SIC industries [1987 = 100] In d u s try S IC Miscellaneous chemical products........................... Petroleum refining.................................................. 289 291 295 299 301 97.3 109.2 98.0 94.8 103.0 96.1 106.6 94.1 90.6 102.4 101.8 107.1 111.3 100.4 101.5 107.8 120.1 108.0 104.2 116.5 305 306 308 314 321 96.1 109.0 105.7 97.8 115.2 114.4 104.2 92.7 99.7 123.1 116.7 105.2 97.7 Miscellaneous petroleum and coal products.......... Tires and inner tubes.............................................. 1 99 0 1991 1 99 2 1 993 1 994 1 99 5 1 996 105.7 123.8 104.9 96.3 124.1 107.8 132.3 102.7 119.1 104.6 121.5 107.4 120.8 121.0 113.0 97.6 117.1 99 6 124.7 126 1 101 5 111.2 87.4 131.1 110.1 142.0 113.1 87.1 138.8 84.5 92.4 109.9 108.3 94.4 83.6 322 323 324 325 326 104.8 92.6 112.4 109.6 98.6 102.3 97.7 108.3 109.8 95.8 108.9 101.5 115.1 111.4 99.5 108.7 106.2 119.9 106.8 100.3 112.9 105.9 125.6 114.0 108.4 115.7 106.1 124.3 109.3 128.7 119.6 119.3 102.3 95.4 109.7 106.1 102.3 101.2 94.0 107.8 104.5 110.7 102.5 104.3 117.0 107.2 101.9 104.6 104.5 133.6 Iron and steel foundries......................................... Primary nonferrous metals..................................... 327 329 331 332 333 101.5 106.3 142.4 113.0 105.3 104.5 107.8 142.6 112.7 Nonferrous rolling and drawing.............................. Nonferrous foundries (castings)............................. Miscellaneous primary metal products.................. Metal cans and shipping containers....................... Cutlery, handtools, and hardware........................... 335 336 339 341 342 92.7 104.0 113.7 117.6 97.3 91.0 103.6 109.1 122.9 96.8 96.0 103.6 114.5 127.8 101.2 100.1 98.3 108.5 111.3 132.3 104.0 Plumbing and heating, except electric................... Fabricated structural metal products...................... Metal forgings and stampings................................. Metal services, n.e.c............................................... Ordnance and accessories, n.e.c........................... 343 344 346 347 348 102.6 102.0 98.8 95.6 104.7 82.1 100.0 98.4 103.9 103.7 104.8 108.7 111.6 120.6 88.6 84.6 Miscellaneous fabricated metal products.............. Engines and turbines.............................................. Farm and garden machinery.................................. Construction and related machinery...................... Metalworking machinery......................................... 349 351 352 353 354 97.5 106.5 116.5 107.0 97.4 105.8 112.9 99.1 96.4 Special industry machinery.................................... General industrial machinery.................................. Computer and office equipment............................. Refrigeration and service machinery...................... Industrial machinery, n.e.c..................................... 355 356 357 358 359 107.5 101.5 138.1 103.6 107.3 Electric distribution equipment............................... Electrical industrial apparatus Household appliances............................................ Electric lighting and wiring equipment................... Communications equipment................................... 361 362 363 364 366 Electronic components and accessories................ Miscellaneous electrical equipment & supplies...... Motor vehicles and equipment............................... Aircraft and parts.................................................... Ship and boat building and repairing...................... Fabricated rubber products, n.e.c........................... Miscellaneous plastics products, n.e.c.................. Glass and glassware, pressed or blown................ Products of purchased glass.................................. Cement, hydraulic................................................... Structural clay products.......................................... Concrete, gypsum, and plaster products................ Miscellaneous nonmetallic mineral products.......... 101.1 101.1 92.9 99.4 81.5 112.1 107.9 102.0 101.1 102.0 103.3 113.9 109.2 118.6 108.2 107.4 102.0 104.3 121.0 121.4 128.1 169.5 115.7 90.7 145.5 113.5 125.3 129.9 121.4 107 6 112.7 132.3 133.8 110 9 1140 114.0 140.8 141.2 131 6 127 7 135.2 143.6 134.0 139.6 124.0 120.8 121.1 111.0 110.8 112.0 125.8 114.4 114.6 148.9 126.2 131.2 134.5 140.9 109.2 99.2 117.8 152.2 144.2 111.3 104.0 122.3 149.6 155.2 118.2 111.3 127.0 136.2 160.3 114.6 115.2 131.5 140.0 163.8 115.7 122.7 130.8 150.4 160.3 123.9 109.1 107.7 108.5 123.0 83.6 109.2 105.8 109.3 127.7 87.6 118.6 106.5 113.6 128.4 87.5 127.3 111.9 124.4 93.7 130.3 112.7 125.9 127.3 96.6 126.9 112.7 130.3 127.9 92.2 103.2 122.3 125.0 117.7 109.9 106.6 122.7 134.7 114.8 108.3 136.6 137.2 123.3 114.9 107.7 136.9 141.2 132.5 119.2 111.5 145.9 148.5 137.5 119.8 110.3 151.2 125.5 137.2 123.5 121.2 132.3 109.0 469.4 112.7 138.8 134.0 109.4 681.3 114.7 141.4 143.0 150.8 127.3 113.7 275.3 112.1 122.1 149.6 100.7 109.0 195.7 104.9 117.0 106.3 107.7 105.8 99.9 123.8 106.5 107.1 106.5 97.5 129.1 119.6 117.1 115.0 105.7 154.9 132.9 123.4 107.8 163.0 131.8 134.9 131.4 113.4 186.4 2 00 .6 143.9 154.3 127.4 116.9 229.5 367 369 371 372 373 133.4 90.6 102.4 98.9 103.7 154.7 98.6 96.6 108.2 96.3 189.3 101.3 104.2 112.3 102.7 217.9 108.2 106.2 115.2 106.2 274.1 110.5 108.8 109.6 103.8 401.5 114.1 106.7 107.9 98.0 514.9 123.1 107.2 113.0 99.2 141.1 93.8 116.5 112.7 106.4 146.9 99.8 110.5 118.9 113.1 147.9 108.4 110.5 151.0 130.9 122.1 119.9 129.1 124.0 152.5 125.1 118.9 132.1 133.8 150.0 120.3 Guided missiles, space vehicles, parts.................. Search and navigation equipment......................... Measuring and controlling devices......................... 374 375 376 381 382 Medical instruments and supplies.......................... Ophthalmic goods................................................... Photographic equipment & supplies....................... Jewelry, silverware, and plated ware..................... Musical instruments................................................ 384 385 386 391 393 116.9 118.7 125.1 123.5 144.5 116.4 96.7 96.0 127.3 157.8 126.9 96.7 95.6 126.7 160.6 132.7 99.5 88.7 95.8 96.9 155.7 124.7 98.5 144.2 114.7 151 0 101.6 110.2 120.6 107.6 114.6 155.0 101.6 107.8 99.3 97.1 120.3 149.2 123.1 96.5 149.1 107.3 110.4 147.5 116.2 112.6 113.6 104.8 258.6 108.6 118.5 121.2 1 99 9 134.1 114.8 127.1 106.0 122.1 1 99 8 128.3 125.1 133.1 111.9 123.2 122.0 108.3 122.2 1 99 7 106.7 328.6 110.7 127.4 120.2 122.0 112.8 120.8 131.7 125.1 110.0 111.2 960.2 115.0 129.3 1350.6 121.4 127.5 139.3 111.4 1840.2 123.2 134.3 142.8 164.2 142.9 147.5 162.3 150.3 129.2 276.0 146.6 162.9 150.2 132.4 327.1 613.4 128.3 116.3 114.7 105.3 768.0 135.3 125.2 140.1 107.0 140.7 136.5 139.6 102.0 112.6 149.5 146.4 148.3 125 5 129.4 142.2 150.5 184.2 120 4 136.5 149.5 142.4 189 1 127 7 142.4 149.1 143.5 205 1 121 4 158.2 139.7 152.9 131.5 167.2 129.5 139.8 188.2 128.7 100.2 102.6 86.9 78.8 147.4 196.3 121.5 114.2 82.9 158.6 199.1 124.8 113.1 81.4 160.2 229.5 147.2 133.9 86.4 121.0 121.8 See footnotes at end of table. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monthly Labor Review November 2001 137 Current Labor Statistics: Productivity Data 42. Continued—Annual indexes of output per hour for selected 3-digit SIC industries [1987 = 100] In d u s try S IC Toys and sporting goods........................................ Pens, pencils, office, and art supplies.................... Costume jewelry and notions.................................. Miscellaneous manufactures.................................. 394 395 396 399 1 99 0 1991 1 99 2 1 99 3 1 99 4 1 99 5 1 996 1997 1998 1999 108.1 118.2 105.3 106.5 109.7 116.8 106.7 109.2 104.9 111.3 110.8 109.5 114.2 111.6 115.8 107.7 109.7 129.9 129.0 106.1 113.6 135.2 143.7 108.1 119.9 144.1 142.2 112.8 125.7 127.5 118.0 109.4 131.6 132.5 131.2 108.5 124.0 129.3 150.2 111.2 118.5 111.1 104.0 92.9 127.8 116.9 103.7 92.5 139.6 123.4 104.5 96.9 145.4 126.6 107.1 100.2 150.3 129.5 106.6 105.7 156.2 125.4 106.5 108.6 167.0 130.9 104.7 111.1 169.8 132.4 108.3 111.6 173.3 129.9 109.7 110.7 182.3 131.6 110.3 108.3 481 483 484 491,3 (pt.) 492,3 (pt.) 113.3 104.9 92.6 110.1 105.8 119.8 106.1 87.6 113.4 109.6 127.7 108.3 88.5 115.2 111.1 135.5 106.7 85.3 120.6 121.8 142.2 110.1 83.4 126.8 125.6 148.1 109.6 84.5 135.0 137.1 159.5 105.8 81.9 146.5 145.9 160.9 101.1 84.7 150.5 158.6 170.3 100.7 83.5 160.1 144.4 189.1 101.8 81.5 162.7 145.0 Lumber and other building materials dealers........ Paint, glass, and wallpaper stores......................... Hardware stores..................................................... Retail nurseries, lawn and garden supply stores.... Department stores.................................................. 521 523 525 526 531 104.3 106.8 115.3 84.7 96.8 102.3 100.4 108.7 89.3 102.0 106.4 107.6 115.2 101.2 105.4 111.4 114.2 113.9 107.1 110.4 118.9 127.8 121.2 117.0 113.4 117.8 130.9 115.5 117.4 115.9 121.6 133.5 119.5 136.4 123.5 121.8 134.8 119.0 127.5 128.8 134.2 163.5 137.8 133.7 135.5 142.3 163.2 149.3 151.2 147.4 Variety stores.......................................................... Miscellaneous general merchandise stores........... 533 539 541 542 546 154.4 118.6 96.6 98.9 91.2 158.8 124.8 96.3 90.8 96.7 173.7 140.4 96.5 99.2 96.5 191.5 164.2 96.0 97.7 86.5 197.4 164.8 95.4 95.7 85.3 211.3 167.3 93.9 94.4 83.0 238.4 167.6 92.1 86.4 75.9 257.7 170.3 91.7 90.8 67.6 268.7 185.7 92.2 95.7 68.1 319.5 195.2 95.4 99.3 83.8 New and used car dealers..................................... Auto and home supply stores................................. Gasoline service stations....................................... Men's and boy's wear stores.................................. Women's clothing stores........................................ 551 553 554 561 562 106.7 103.6 103.0 115.6 106.6 104.9 100.2 104.8 121.9 111.2 107.4 101.6 110.2 122.3 123.6 108.6 100.8 115.9 119.5 130.0 109.7 105.3 121.1 121.8 130.4 108.1 109.1 127.2 121.4 139.9 109.1 108.2 126.1 129.8 154.2 108.8 108.1 126.1 136.3 157.3 108.7 113.0 133.9 145.2 176.1 111.9 116.0 140.6 154.6 190.5 Family clothing stores............................................ Shoe stores............................................................. Furniture and homefurnishings stores................... Household appliance stores................................... Radio, television, computer, and music stores...... 565 566 571 572 573 107.8 107.9 104.6 104.3 121.1 111.5 107.8 105.4 106.7 129.8 118.6 115.5 113.9 115.5 139.9 121.5 117.3 113.3 118.0 154.5 127.7 130.7 114.7 121.5 179.1 141.8 139.2 117.4 138.4 199.3 146.9 151.9 123.6 140.7 208.1 150.2 148.4 124.2 153.5 218.4 153.1 145.0 127.2 181.4 260.3 156.5 151.1 134.1 183.9 314.6 Eating and drinking places.................................... Drug and proprietary stores................................... 581 591 592 593 594 104.5 106.3 105.9 103.0 107.2 103.8 108.0 106.9 102.3 109.0 103.4 107.6 109.6 115.7 107.5 103.8 109.5 101.8 116.8 111.5 102.1 109.9 100.1 119.5 117.1 102.0 111.1 104.7 120.6 123.1 100.6 113.9 113.8 132.7 125.3 101.6 119.7 109.9 140.3 129.1 102.0 125.6 116.5 163.6 138.8 104.3 129.8 114.6 181.9 145.2 596 598 599 111.1 84.5 114.5 112.5 85.3 104.0 126.5 84.2 112.5 132.2 91.8 118.1 149.0 99.0 125.8 152.4 111.4 127.0 173.3 112.4 140.2 186.5 109.0 147.8 208.0 105.8 157.3 222.2 115.1 161.0 602 701 721 722 723 107.7 96.2 102.3 98.2 97.5 110.1 99.3 99.9 92.1 95.8 111.0 108.0 99.3 95.8 100.9 118.5 106.5 99.9 101.8 97.0 121.7 109.9 105.0 108.3 101.1 126.4 110.5 106.6 116.2 104.8 129.7 110.0 109.8 110.7 107.6 133.0 108.2 109.0 114.1 108.5 132.6 111.6 116.2 121.6 110.5 135.2 113.5 121.8 105.1 113.3 724 726 753 783 100.7 91.2 107.9 118.1 94.9 89.9 100.1 118.2 113.2 103.8 105.1 114.8 121.9 98.7 105.7 113.8 118.8 104.3 114.3 110.4 115.7 100.2 121.6 105.0 128.8 97.6 116.1 104.1 150.4 101.9 117.2 103.4 157.4 104.2 124.9 106.1 138.0 99.7 127.6 110.5 T r a n s p o r ta tio n 4011 Railroad transportation............................................ 4213 Trucking, except local1 .......................................... 431 U.S. postal service 2 ............................................... Air transportation 1 ................................................. 4512,13,22 (pts.) U titlitie s Telephone communications................................... Radio and television broadcasting......................... Cable and other pay TV services........................... Electric utilities........................................................ Gas utilities.............................................................. T ra d e Meat and fish (seafood) markets............................ Miscellaneous shopping goods stores.................. F in a n c e a n d s e rv ic e s Hotels and motels.................................................. Laundry, cleaning, and garment services............. Photographic studios, portrait............................... Automotive repair shops........................................ Motion picture theaters......................................... 1 Refers to output per employee n.e.c. = not elsewhere classified * Refers to ouput per full-time equivalent employee year on fiscal basis. 138 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 43. Unemployment rates, approximating U.S. concepts, in nine countries, quarterly data seasonally adjusted A n n u a l a v e ra g e C o u n try 1999 2000 1 99 9 I II 2000 III IV I II III IV United States....... 4.2 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 Canada................ Australia.............. Jaoan1................. France1................ Germany1............ Italv1,2.................. Sweden1.............. United Kinndnm1 6.8 7.2 4.7 11.2 8.7 11.5 7.1 6.1 5.8 6.6 4.8 9.7 7.1 7.5 4.7 11.4 8.8 11.8 7.1 6.2 7.1 7.4 4.8 11.3 8.8 11.7 7.0 6.1 6.8 7.1 4.8 11.2 8.8 11.5 7.1 5.9 6.2 7.0 4.7 10.8 8.7 11.2 7.1 5.9 6.0 6.8 4.8 10.2 8.4 11.3 6.7 5.8 5.8 6.7 4.7 9.7 5.8 6.3 47 9.6 8.2 10.6 5.6 5.4 5.7 6.5 4J3 9.2 8.3 10.7 5.9 - 1 Preliminary for 2000 for Japan, France, Germany (unified), Italy, and Sweden and for 1999 onward for the United Kingdom. 2 Quarterly rates are for the first month of the quarter. 8.1 10.1 5.2 - dicators of unemployment under U.S. concepts than the annual figures. See "Notes on the data" for information on breaks in series. For further qualifications and historical data, see C o m p a ra tive NOTE: Quarterly figures for France and Germany are calculated by applying annual adjustment factors to current published data, and therefore should be viewed as less precise in 8.3 10.8 6.0 5.5 C ivilian tries, 1 9 5 9 -2 0 0 0 Labor F o rc e S tatistics, Ten C oun (Bureau of Labor Statistics, Mar. 16, 2001). Dash indicates data not available. Monthly Labor Review November 2001 139 Current Labor Statistics: International Comparison 44. Annual data: Employment status of the working-age population, approximating U.S. concepts, 10 countries [Numbers in thousands] E m p lo y m e n t s ta tu s a n d c o u n try 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 00 0 126,346 128,105 129,200 131,056 132,304 133,943 136,297 137,673 139,368 140,863 14,128 8,490 64,280 14,299 8,619 65,470 14,387 8,776 65,780 14,500 9,001 65,990 14,650 9,127 66,450 14,936 9,221 67,200 15,216 9,347 67,240 15,513 9,470 67,090 15,745 9,682 66,990 24,470 39,130 14,168 8,562 65,040 24,570 39,040 24,640 39,140 24,780 39,210 24,830 39,100 25,090 39,180 25,210 39,480 25,540 39,520 25,860 39,630 - 22,940 6,780 4,591 28,610 22,910 6,940 4,520 28,410 22,570 7,050 4,443 28,310 22,450 7,200 4,418 28,280 22,460 7,230 4,460 28,480 22,570 7,440 4,459 28,620 22,680 7,510 4,418 28,760 22,960 7,670 4,402 28,870 23,130 7,750 4,430 29,090 1991 C ivilian lab o r force United States1.......................................................... Canada.................................................................... Australia................................................................... Japan....................................................................... France..................................................................... 2 Germany................................................................. Italy.......................................................................... Netherlands............................................................. Sweden.................................................................... United Kingdom........................................................ P articipation rate - _ - - 3 I InitoH .Qtatoc^ Canada.................................................................... Australia................................................................... Japan....................................................................... France..................................................................... f5ormanv^ Italy.......................................................................... Netherlands............................................................. Sweden.................................................................... United Kinqdom........................................................ 66.2 66.7 64.1 63.2 55.9 58.9 47.7 56.8 67.0 63.7 66.4 65.9 63.9 63.4 55.8 58.3 47.5 57.7 65.7 63.1 66.3 65.5 63.6 63.3 55.6 58.0 47.9 58.2 64.5 62.8 66.6 65.2 63.9 63.1 55.5 57.6 47.3 59.0 63.7 62.5 66.6 64.9 64.6 62.9 55.3 57.3 47.1 58.9 64.1 62.7 66.8 64.7 64.6 63.0 55.5 57.4 47.1 60.3 64.0 62.7 67.1 65.0 64.3 63.2 55.3 57.7 47.2 60.6 63.3 62.8 67.1 65.4 64.4 62.8 55.7 57.7 47.6 61.4 62.8 62.7 67.1 65.8 64.2 62.4 56.0 57.9 47.8 61.5 63.2 62.9 67.2 65.9 64.7 62.0 - - E m ployed United States1.......................................................... Canada.................................................................... Australia................................................. Japan................................................... France.................................................. Hormonw2 Italy...................................................... Netherlands............................................................. Sweden................................................. United Kingdom........................................................ E m plo ym ent-po pulation ratio 117,718 12,747 7,676 62,920 22,120 36,920 21,360 6,380 4,447 26,090 118,492 12,672 7,637 63,620 22,020 36,420 21,230 6,540 4,265 25,530 120,259 12,770 7.680 63,810 21,740 36,030 20,270 6,590 4,028 25,340 123,060 13,027 7,921 63,860 124,900. 13,271 8,235 63,890 21,730 35,890 19,940 6,680 3,992 25,550 21,910 35,900 19,820 6,730 4,056 26,000 126,708 13,380 8,344 64,200 21,960 35,680 19,920 6,970 4,019 26,280 129,558 13,705 8,429 64,900 22,090 35,570 19,990 7,110 3,973 26,740 131,463 14,068 8,597 64,450 22,520 35,830 20,210 7,360 4,034 27,050 133,488 14,456 8,785 63,920 22,970 36,170 20,460 7,490 4,117 27,330 135,208 14,827 9,043 63,790 - 4 United States1.......................................... Canada................................................. Australia................................................ Japan...................................................................... Germany2............................................... Italy.......................................................................... Netherlands............................................. Sweden................................................................... United Kinqdom......................................... 61.7 60.2 57.9 61.8 50.6 55.5 61.5 58.9 57.0 62.0 50.0 54.4 61.7 58.5 56.6 61.7 49.0 53.4 62.5 59.0 57.7 61.3 48.7 52.8 62.9 59.4 59.1 60.9 48.8 52.6 63.2 59.1 59.1 60.9 48.5 52.2 63.8 59.7 58.8 61.0 48.5 52.0 64.1 60.4 59.2 60.2 49.1 52.3 64.3 61.3 59.6 59.4 49.8 52.8 64.5 62.1 60.4 59.0 44.5 53.4 64.9 58.0 44.0 54.4 62.0 56.7 43.0 54.4 58.5 56.2 42.0 54.8 57.6 56.5 41.5 54.9 58.3 57.2 41.6 56.5 57.7 57.6 41.6 57.4 56.9 58.3 41.9 58.9 57.6 58.7 42.3 59.4 58.7 59.1 _ - - U nem ployed United States1.......................................... Canada.................................................................... Australia................................................ Japan................................................... Germany2................................................................. Italy.......................................................................... United Kingdom........................................................ 8,628 1,381 814 1,360 2,350 2,210 9,613 1,496 925 1,420 2,550 2,620 8,940 7,996 7,404 6,210 5,880 1,359 856 1,920 3,060 3,320 1,229 766 2,100 2,920 3,200 7,236 1,271 783 2,250 3,130 3,500 6,739 1,530 939 1,660 2,900 3,110 1,230 791 2,300 3,130 3,910 1,148 750 2,790 3,020 3,690 1,058 685 3,170 2,890 3,460 1,580 400 144 2,520 1,680 390 255 2,880 2,300 460 415 2,970 2,510 520 426 2,730 2,640 510 404 2,480 2,650 470 440 2,340 2,690 400 445 2,020 2,750 310 368 1,820 2,670 260 313 1,760 5,655 918 638 3,200 - - U nem ploym ent rate United States1.......................................... Canada................................................. Japan...................................................................... Germany2................................................................ Italy...................................................... 6.8 9.8 9.6 2.1 9.6 5.6 7.5 10.6 10.8 2.2 10.4 6.7 6.9 10.7 10.9 2.5 11.8 7.9 6.1 9.4 9.7 2.9 12.3 8.5 5.6 8.5 8.5 3.2 11.8 8.2 5.4 8.7 8.6 3.4 12.5 8.9 4.9 8.2 8.6 3.4 12.4 9.9 4.5 7.5 8.0 4.1 11.8 9.3 4.2 6.8 7.2 4.7 11.2 8.7 4.0 5.8 6.6 4.8 9.7 6.9 10.2 11.2 11.7 7.3 11.8 11.9 12.0 11.5 10.7 5.9 7.2 7.1 3.4 5.6 6.5 6.3 5.3 4.0 8.4 7.1 3.1 5.6 9.3 9.6 9.1 9.9 10.1 5.9 9.7 8.7 8.2 8.8 10.1 10.5 7.0 6.3 6.1 1Data for 1994 are not directly comparable with data for 1993 and earlier years. For 3 Labor force as a percent of the working-age population, additional information, see the box note under "Employment and Unemployment 4 Employment as a percent of the working-age population. Data" in the notes to this section. NOTE: See Notes on the data for information on breaks in series for the United 2 Data from 1991 onward refer to unified Germany. See C om parative Civilian Lab or States, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Sweden. Dash indicates data are not available, Force S tatistics, Ten C ountries, 1 9 5 9 -2 0 0 0 , Mar. 16, 2001, on the Internet at p m preliminary. http ://stats .b ls.g o v /flsd a ta .h tm . Sweden................................................. United Kinadom........................................................ 140 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 45. A n n u a l in d e x e s o f m a n u fa c tu rin g p ro d u c tiv ity a n d re la te d m easu re s, 12 coun tries [19 9 2 = 100] Item and country 1960 1970 1980 1988 1989 1990 1991 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Output per hour United States............................................... Canada....................................................... Japan.......................................................... Belgium...................................................... Denmark.................................................... France........................................................ Germany..................................................... Italy............................................................ Netherlands................................................. Norway....................................................... Sweden................................................... United Kingdom............................................ 38.7 14.C 18.0 29.Ê 21.8 29.2 20.2 18.6 36.7 27.3 31.2 56.6 38.0 32.9 52.7 43.0 52.0 37.9 38.1 57.8 52.2 44.7 70.5 75.1 63.9 65/ 90.3 66.5 77.2 65.9 69.2 76.7 73.1 56.1 96.9 90.9 84.8 92.0 94.1 87.5 91.5 86.7 93.7 92.1 90.5 82.3 95.7 93.7 89.5 96.9 99.6 91.9 94.6 89.4 97.1 94.6 93.2 86.2 96.9 95.7 95.4 96.8 99.1 93.5 99.0 92.5 98.6 96.6 94.6 88.3 97.8 95.3 99.4 99.1 99.6 96.9 99.0 95.2 99.6 97.5 95.5 92.2 102.1 104.5 100.5 102.5 104.5 100.6 101.6 102.9 101.4 100.6 107.3 104.0 107.3 109.9 101.8 108.4 113.8 111.0 109.3 113.2 117.0 109.5 115.8 115.5 121.1 112.8 121.4 122.4 127.0 112.5 120.4 123.6 134.8 115.2 124.1 124.5 108.5 110.1 105.6 112.7 101.4 119.4 106.8 114.5 113.2 109.3 117.7 102.0 121.9 104.8 115.0 116.8 109.5 119.7 102.0 124.5 103.2 122.6 122.4 111.5 125.7 103.0 133.0 104.0 124.0 126.7 111.1 127.8 103.9 135.6 104.6 128.9 128.5 112.9 34.2 10.7 30.7 40.8 31.0 41.5 21.9 31.7 56.5 45.9 67.7 60.6 38.8 57.6 68.0 64.1 70.9 45.8 59.5 89.1 80.7 90.3 75.8 86.0 59.9 78.2 91.3 88.7 85.3 80.4 77.4 103.6 90.7 87.2 103.2 110.1 84.6 93.3 100.8 92.2 90.9 94.5 92.8 105.3 109.8 101.4 102.4 112.6 90.2 99.1 104.3 97.2 94.0 98.1 96.9 101.3 110.9 105.4 101.6 108.6 96.3 101.0 102.7 99.1 99.1 99.6 100.1 100.2 110.1 105.3 98.3 99.0 101.4 100.7 101.7 99.8 102.3 99.2 100.6 98.3 104.1 100.0 103.5 104.6 96.0 97.0 99.0 95.7 92.5 96.4 98.2 102.7 101.9 101.4 111.1 113.2 95.4 101.4 109.3 100.3 95.2 102.2 104.2 106.7 117.1 106.1 118.4 118.1 100.6 104.2 114.7 104.9 95.3 107.2 107.8 109.0 128.4 107.8 121.3 119.8 106.7 105.1 109.7 104.6 93.5 105.6 108.4 110.1 131.1 108.2 127.7 128.1 111.1 109.9 112.6 109.7 96.3 108.3 114.1 115.7 138.6 109.6 133.5 133.1 103.6 111.8 115.3 111.5 100.9 110.3 116.6 117.6 144.6 109.9 114.0 150.7 109.7 92.1 88.3 76.3 170.7 136.5 142.3 142.3 108.7 170.6 154.0 168.3 217.3 104.4 107.1 102.3 174.7 129.0 149.0 136.3 120.9 156.2 154.3 154.7 202.1 107.5 114.6 93.8 119.7 101.1 133.3 110.5 122.0 111.8 135.0 124.0 155.3 106.6 121.2 99.8 101.5 107.2 105.4 99.3 108.9 99.0 114.3 121.4 123.2 107.1 120.2 100.8 102.3 104.7 105.8 99.3 109.7 99.8 107.1 119.0 122.3 104.8 113.5 100.9 104.3 103.7 105.9 100.1 107.7 101.5 103.7 116.4 119.2 100.4 103.9 102.0 101.5 102.1 103.0 103.3 104.2 101.0 100.8 109.0 108.5 101.4 100.1 95.6 94.7 94.8 95.1 91.0 93.6 96.9 102.1 94.9 97.5 103.6 103.0 93.7 93.6 104.0 106.4 92.0 92.0 103.7 109.4 92.2 91.0 105.5 113.5 91.5 89.8 105.2 118.3 86.1 90.5 103.3 122.7 83.8 91.5 92.4 86.5 96.7 92.4 105.2 98.1 99.4 91.6 84.2 98.0 91.6 106.9 105.3 102.9 91.0 80.1 96.5 90.5 107.9 105.3 104.8 89.5 78.7 97.1 90.8 112.3 104.2 105.4 89.9 79.6 99.3 91.2 113.2 106.6 105.0 88.6 79.5 98.6 109.8 108.0 100.5 14.9 9.9 4.3 5.4 4.6 4.3 8.1 1.6 6.4 4.7 4.1 3.1 23.7 17.0 16.5 13.7 13.3 10.3 20.7 4.7 20.2 11.8 10.7 6.3 55.6 47.7 58.6 52.5 49.6 40.8 53.6 28.4 64.4 39.0 37.3 33.2 84.0 77.8 79.2 81.1 82.9 81.6 79.1 69.3 87.7 83.3 71.8 67.7 86.6 82.5 84.2 85.9 87.7 86.0 83.2 75.9 88.5 87.2 79.4 72.9 90.8 89.5 90.7 90.1 92.7 90.6 89.4 84.4 90.8 92.3 87.8 80.9 95.6 94.7 95.9 97.3 95.9 96.2 92.1 93.6 95.2 97.5 95.5 90.5 102.7 99.6 104.6 104.8 104.6 103.0 106.1 107.5 103.7 101.5 97.2 104.3 105.6 100.4 106.7 106.1 107.9 103.6 109.5 109.2 109.3 102.8 110.9 112.0 111.4 106.7 113.9 115.2 117.3 110.8 115.8 116.0 123.2 110.8 117.7 116.0 105.6 112.3 107.8 108.2 104.4 99.8 106.5 108.4 118.5 112.8 110.6 109.2 106.3 107.4 110.2 125.2 120.3 113.2 113.6 114.2 108.2 113.0 128.0 125.4 115.8 118.7 119.7 111.4 114.9 128.9 123.0 118.3 126.2 123.3 117.0 119.3 130.8 126.5 25.6 30.9 30.1 15.4 19.5 27.8 7.9 34.4 12.9 15.0 9.8 30.1 43.3 41.7 25.2 24.0 39.8 12.4 52.9 20.4 20.6 14.1 78.8 63.2 91.7 80.3 55.0 81.3 69.4 43.1 93.0 50.8 51.0 59.1 86.7 85.2 93.4 88.1 88.2 93.3 86.5 79.9 93.6 90.4 79.4 82.2 90.5 88.0 94.0 88.7 88.1 93.6 87.9 84.9 91.1 92.2 85.1 84.6 93.7 92.3 95.0 93.0 93.6 96.8 90.3 91.3 92.1 95.6 92.8 91.6 97.7 99.7 96.5 98.1 96.3 99.3 93.1 98.4 95.5 100.0 100.0 98.2 100.6 97.6 104.1 102.3 100.1 102.4 104.5 104.4 102.3 100.9 90.6 100.3 98.5 94.3 104.9 97.9 93.0 97.3 102.0 102.1 96.0 102.9 83.6 99.7 94.8 95.5 100.1 96.4 93.8 94.7 104.7 103.2 94.0 107.1 87.2 102.5 93.5 95.9 95.8 95.6 100.9 95.9 107.2 109.9 94.6 111.4 91.7 104.8 92.0 95.9 93.8 93.3 102.0 92.2 104.6 112.4 92.2 115.2 90.0 107.1 92.4 98.8 96.2 93.7 102.8 92.7 101.8 110.8 92.5 121.5 90.9 111.9 32.0 10.9 19.4 13.5 21.1 10.4 15.6 16.0 11.3 16.9 15.6 34.8 15.3 27.0 20.3 23.0 17.1 24.4 25.7 17.8 23.1 19.2 78.8 65.3 51.3 88.3 58.9 76.8 59.6 62.0 82.3 63.9 70.3 77.8 86.7 83.6 92.4 77.0 79.0 82.9 76.9 75.6 83.2 86.1 75.4 82.9 90.5 89.8 86.3 72.3 72.6 77.6 73.0 76.2 75.5 82.9 76.8 78.5 93.7 95.6 83.1 89.5 91.3 94.1 87.3 93.8 88.9 95.0 91.3 92.5 97.7 105.1 90.9 92.3 90.8 93.1 87.5 97.6 89.8 95.7 96.3 98.2 100.6 91.4 118.8 95.1 93.2 95.6 98.6 81.8 96.8 88.3 67.7 85.3 98.5 83.4 130.1 94.2 88.3 92.9 98.2 78.1 92.8 90.7 63.1 86.5 94.8 84.1 135.1 105.2 101.1 100.6 114.1 78.0 103.0 105.0 71.2 91.6 93.5 85.0 111.7 99.3 105.0 99.2 111.3 87.8 98.6 107.1 79.7 92.6 92.0 83.6 98.3 83.7 93.1 83.6 94.1 81.3 83.0 101.1 68.6 99.31 92.4 80.5 93.1 83.0 92.6 83.2 90.3 78.6 82.0 100.0 66.6 105.0 103.9 139.5 109.2 Output United States............................................... Canada....................................................... Japan.......................................................... Belgium....................................................... Denmark..................................................... France......................................................... Germany..................................................... Italy................................................. Netherlands.................................................. Norway........................................................ Sweden....................................................... United Kingdom...................................... 139.3 141.3 103.9 113.8 111.5 114.2 102.2 111.4 Total hours United States............................................... Canada........................................................ Japan...................................................... Belgium.................................................... Denmark.............................................. France................................................ Germany.................................................... Italy.................................................... Netherlands.................................................. Norway........................................................ Sweden........................................................ United Kingdom............................................. _ _ _ Compensation per hour United States.......................................... Canada................................................... Japan........................................ Belgium........................................................ Denmark...................................................... France......................................................... Germany...................................................... Itaiy........................................ Netherlands.................................................. Norway............................................ Sweden.................................. United Kingdom............................................. Unit labor costs: National currency basis United States........................................... Canada........................................................ Japan.......................................................... Belgium........................................................ Denmark...................................................... France......................................................... Germany...................................................... Italy.............................................. Netherlands..................................... Norway........................................ Sweden....................................... United Kingdom........................................ Unit labor costs: U.S. dollar basis United States......................................... Canada................................................... Japan................................................. Belgium........................................................ Denmark...................................................... France......................................................... Germany...................................................... Italy...................................................... Netherlands.................................. Norway.................................................. Sweden........................................... United Kingdom............................................. _ _ _ 133.4 127.4 122.6 91.4 98.1 94.9 93.4 108.9 92.6 101.8 112.0 128.5 91.3 112.3 91.4 79.8 105.7 79.3 94.1 79.6 86.6 75.9 102.2 64.3 102.8 NOTE: Data for Germany for years before 1992 are for the former West Germany. Data for 1992 onward are for unified Germany. Dash indicates data not available. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monthly Labor Review November 2001 141 Current Labor Statistics: 46. Injury and Illness Occupational injury and Illness rates by Industry,1 United States In cid e n c e rates p e r 100 fu ll-tim e w o rk e rs 3 In d u s try a n d ty p e o f c ase PRIVATE SEC TO R 1988 1989 1 1990 1991 1992 1993 4 1 994 4 1995 4 1996 4 1 997 4 1998 4 1 999 4 5 A griculture, forestry, and fis h in g 5 8.6 4.0 76.1 8.6 4.0 78.7 8.8 4.1 84.0 8.4 3.9 86.5 8.9 3.9 93.8 8.5 3.8 8.4 3.8 8.1 3.6 7.4 3.4 7.1 3.3 6.7 3.1 6.3 3.0 10.9 5.6 101.8 10.9 5.7 100.9 11.6 5.9 112.2 10.8 5.4 108.3 11.6 5.4 126.9 11.2 5.0 10.0 4.7 9.7 4.3 8.7 3.9 8.4 4.1 7.9 3.9 7.3 3.4 _ _ _ 8.8 5.1 152.1 8.5 4.8 137.2 8.3 5.0 119.5 7.4 4.5 129.6 7.3 4.1 204.7 6.8 3.9 6.3 3.9 14.6 6.8 142.2 14.3 6.8 143.3 14.2 6.7 147.9 13.0 6.1 148.1 13.1 5.8 161.9 12.2 5.5 14.0 6.4 132.2 13.9 6.5 137.3 13.4 6.4 137.6 12.0 5.5 132.0 12.2 5.4 142.7 15.1 7.0 162.3 13.8 6.5 147.1 13.8 6.3 144.6 12.8 6.0 160.1 14.7 7.0 141.1 14.6 6.9 144.9 14.7 6.9 153.1 13.1 5.7 107.4 13.1 5.8 113.0 14.2 5.9 111.1 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ M ining 6.2 3.9 5.4 3.2 5.9 3.7 4.9 2.9 4.4 2.7 _ _ _ _ _ 11.8 5.5 10.6 4.9 9.9 4.5 9.5 4.4 8.8 4.0 8.6 4.2 11.5 5.1 10.9 5.1 9.8 4.4 9.0 4.0 8.5 3.7 8.4 3.9 8.0 3.7 12.1 5.4 165.8 11.1 5.1 10.2 5.0 9.9 4.8 9.0 4.3 8.7 4.3 8.2 4.1 7.8 3.8 13.5 6.3 151.3 13.8 6.1 168.3 12.8 5.8 12.5 5.8 11.1 5.0 10.4 4.8 10.0 4.7 9.1 4.1 8.9 4.4 13.2 5.8 120.7 12.7 5.6 121.5 12.5 5.4 124.6 12.1 5.3 12.2 5.5 11.6 5.3 10.6 4.9 10.3 4.8 9.7 4.7 9.2 4.6 14.1 6.0 116^5 14.2 6.0 123.3 13.6 5.7 122.9 13.4 5.5 126.7 13.1 5.4 13.5 5.7 12.8 5.6 11.6 5.1 11.3 5.1 10.7 5.0 10.1 4.8 19.5 10.0 189.1 18.4 9.4 177.5 18.1 8.8 172.5 16.8 8.3 172.0 16.3 7.6 165.8 15.9 7.6 15.7 7.7 14.9 7.0 14.2 6.8 13.5 6.5 13.2 6.8 13.0 6.7 16.6 7.3 115.7 16.1 7.2 16.9 7.8 15.9 7.2 14.8 6.6 128.4 14.6 6.5 15.0 7.0 13.9 6.4 12.2 5.4 12.0 5.8 11.4 5.7 11.5 5.9 16.0 7.5 141.0 15.5 7.4 149.8 15.4 7.3 160.5 14.8 6.8 156.0 13.6 6.1 152.2 13.8 6.3 13.2 6.5 12.3 5.7 12.4 6.0 11.8 5.7 11.8 6.0 10.7 5.4 19.4 8.2 161.3 18.7 8.1 168.3 19.0 8.1 180.2 17.7 7.4 169.1 17.5 7.1 175.5 17.0 7.3 16.8 7.2 16.5 7.2 15.0 6.8 15.0 7.2 14.0 7.0 12.9 6.3 18.8 8.0 138.8 18.5 7.9 147.6 18.7 7.9 155.7 17.4 7.1 146.6 16.8 6.6 144.0 16.2 6.7 16.4 6.7 15.8 6.9 14.4 6.2 14.2 6.4 13.9 6.5 12.6 6.0 12.1 4.7 82.8 12.1 4.8 86.8 12.0 4.7 88.9 11.2 4.4 86.6 11.1 4.2 87.7 11.1 4.2 11.6 4.4 11.2 4.4 9.9 4.0 10.0 4.1 9.5 4.0 8.5 3.7 8.0 3.3 64.6 9.1 3.9 77.5 9.1 3.8 79.4 8.6 3.7 83.0 8.4 3.6 81.2 8.3 3.5 8.3 3.6 7.6 3.3 6.8 3.1 6.6 3.1 5.9 2.8 5.7 2.8 17.7 6.6 134.2 17.7 6.8 138.6 17.8 6.9 153.7 18.3 7.0 166.1 18.7 7.1 186.6 18.5 7.1 19.6 7.8 18.6 7.9 16.3 7.0 15.4 6.6 14.6 6.6 13.7 6.4 6.1 2.6 51.5 5.6 2.5 55.4 5.9 2.7 57.8 6.0 2.7 64.4 5.9 2.7 65.3 5.6 2.5 5.9 2.7 5.3 2.4 5.1 2.3 4.8 2.3 4.0 1.9 4.0 1.8 11.3 5.1 91.0 11.1 5.1 97.6 11.3 5.1 113.1 11.3 5.1 104.0 10.7 5.0 108.2 10.0 4.6 9.9 4.5 9.1 4.3 9.5 4.4 8.9 4.2 8.1 3.9 8.4 4.0 - Construction General building contractors: Heavy construction, except building: Special trades contractors: _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ M anufacturing _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Durable goods: _ _ _ _ Lumber and wood products: Furniture and fixtures: Stone, clay, and glass products: Primary metal industries: Fabricated metal products: _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Industrial machinery and equipment: Electronic and other electrical equipment: Transportation equipment: Instruments and related products: Miscellaneous manufacturing industries: Lost workdays......................................................................... See footnotes at end of table. 142 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 2001 _ _ _ _ 46. Continued—Occupational injury and illness rates by industry,1 United States In cidence rates p er 100 fu ll-tim e w o rk e rs 3 in d u s try a n d ty p e o f c a s e 1 1998 4 1999 4 8.8 4.4 - 8.2 4.3 - 7.8 4.2 _ 15.0 8.0 - 14.5 8.0 - 13.6 7.5 - 12.7 7.3 _ 5.6 2.6 - 6.7 2.8 - 5.9 2.7 - 6.4 3.4 - 5.5 2.2 8.7 4.0 - 8.2 4.1 - 7.8 3.6 - 6.7 3.1 - 7.4 3.4 _ 6.4 3.2 _ 9.0 3.8 - 8.9 3.9 - 8.2 3.6 - 7.4 3.3 - 7.0 3.1 - 6.2 2.6 - 5.8 2.8 - 11.0 5.0 125.9 9.9 4.6 9.6 4.5 - 8.5 4.2 7.9 3.8 - 7.3 3.7 - 7.1 3.7 - 7.0 3.7 - 6.7 3.2 74.5 7.3 3.2 74.8 6.9 3.1 - 6.7 3.0 - 6.4 3.0 - 6.0 2.8 - 5.7 2.7 - 5.4 2.8 - 5.0 2.6 - 6.5 3.1 61.6 6.4 3.1 62.4 6.0 2.8 64.2 5.9 2.7 - 5.7 2.8 - 5.5 2.7 - 4.8 2.4 4.8 2.3 - 4.2 2.1 - 4.4 2.3 _ 6.6 3.3 68.1 6.6 3.1 77.3 6.2 2.9 68.2 5.9 2.8 71.2 5.2 2.5 - 4.7 2.3 - 4.8 2.4 - 4.6 2.5 - 4.3 2.2 - 3.9 1.8 _ 4.1 1.8 - 16.3 8.1 142.9 16.2 8.0 147.2 16.2 7.8 151.3 15.1 7.2 150.9 14.5 6.8 153.3 13.9 6.5 - 14.0 6.7 12.9 6.5 - 12.3 6.3 - 11.9 5.8 - 11.2 5.8 - 10.1 5.5 - 11.4 5.6 128.2 13.6 6.5 130.4 12.1 5.9 152.3 12.5 5.9 140.8 12.1 5.4 128.5 12.1 5.5 - 12.0 5.3 - 11.4 4.8 - 10.7 4.5 - 10.6 4.3 - 9.8 4.5 - 10.3 5.0 - 8.9 5.1 118.6 9.2 5.3 121.5 9.6 5.5 134.1 9.3 5.4 140.0 9.1 5.1 144.0 9.5 5.4 - 9.3 5.5 - 9.1 5.2 - 8.7 5.1 - 8.2 4.8 - 7.3 4.3 - 7.3 4.4 - 7.8 3.5 60.9 8.0 3.6 63.5 7.9 3.5 65.6 7.6 3.4 72.0 8.4 3.5 80.1 8.1 3.4 7.9 3.4 7.5 3.2 6.8 2.9 6.7 3.0 6.5 2.8 _ 6.1 2.7 _ 7.6 3.8 69.2 7.7 4.0 71.9 7.4 3.7 71.5 7.2 3.7 79.2 7.6 3.6 82.4 7.8 3.7 - 7.7 3.8 - 7.5 3.6 - 6.6 3.4 _ 6.5 3.2 - 6.5 3.3 _ 6.3 3.3 _ 7.9 3.4 57.6 8.1 3.4 60.0 8.1 3.4 63.2 7.7 3.3 69.1 8.7 3.4 79.2 8.2 3.3 - 7.9 3.3 - 7.5 3.0 - 6.9 2.8 - 6.8 2.9 - 6.5 2.7 - 6.1 2.5 - Finance, insurance, and real estate Total cases.............................................................................. Lost workday cases................................................................... Lost workdays............................................................................ 2.0 .9 17.2 2.0 .9 17.6 2.4 1.1 27.3 2.4 1.1 24.1 2.9 1.2 32.9 2.9 1.2 - 2.7 1.1 - 2.6 1.0 - 2.4 .9 - 2.2 .9 .7 .5 1.8 .8 - - - Services Total cases.............................................................................. Lost workday cases................................................................... Lost workdays............................................................................ 5.4 2.6 47.7 5.5 2.7 51.2 6.0 2.8 56.4 6.2 2.8 60.0 7.1 3.0 68.6 6.7 2.8 - 6.5 2.8 - 6.4 2.8 - 6.0 2.6 - 5.6 2.5 - 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 4 1996 4 10.5 5.1 - 9.9 4.9 - 9.2 4.6 - 17.6 8.9 - 17.1 9.2 - 16.3 8.7 - 6.0 2.4 42.9 5.8 2.3 - 5.3 2.4 - 10.1 4.4 88.3 9.9 4.2 87.1 9.7 4.1 - 8.8 3.9 92.1 9.2 4.2 99.9 9.5 4.0 104.6 12.7 5.8 132.9 12.1 5.5 124.8 11.2 5.0 122.7 6.6 3.2 59.8 6.9 3.3 63.8 6.9 3.3 69.8 7.0 3.3 59.0 7.0 3.2 63.4 7.0 3.2 68.4 11.4 5.4 101.7 11.6 5.5 107.8 11.7 5.6 116.9 11.5 5.5 119.7 11.3 5.3 121.8 10.7 5.0 - Food and kindred products: Total cases........................................................................... Lost workday cases................................................................ Lost workdays........................................................................ 18.5 9.2 169.7 18.5 9.3 174.7 20.0 9.9 202.6 19.5 9.9 207.2 18.8 9.5 211.9 Tobacco products: Total cases.......................................... ................................ Lost workday cases................................................................ Lost workdays........................................................................ 9.3 2.9 53.0 8.7 3.4 64.2 7.7 3.2 62.3 6.4 2.8 52.0 9.6 4.0 78.8 10.3 4.2 81.4 9.6 4.0 85.1 8.1 3.5 68.2 8.6 3.8 80.5 13.1 5.9 124.3 Textile mill products: Total cases........................................................................... Lost workday cases................................................................ Lost workdays........................................................................ Apparel and other textile products: Total cases........................................................................... Lost workday cases................................................................ Lost workdays........................................................................ Paper and allied products: Total cases.......................................... .................................. Lost workday cases................................................................. Lost workdays........................................................................ Printinq and publishing: Total cases............................................................................ Lost workday cases................................................................. Lost workdays........................................................................ Chemicals and allied products: Total cases............................................................................ Lost workday cases................................................................. Lost workdays......................................................................... Petroleum and coal products: Total cases............................................................................ Lost workday cases................................................................ Lost workdays........................................................................ Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products: Total cases............................................................................ Lost workday cases................................................................ Lost workdays........................................................................ Leather and leather products: Total cases............................................................................ Lost workday cases................................................................ Lost workdays......................................................................... Transportation and public utilities Total cases.............................................................................. Lost workday cases................................................................... Lost workdays............................................................................ Wholesale and retail trade Total cases.............................................................................. Lost workday cases................................................................... Lost workdays............................................................................ Wholesale trade: Total cases.............................................................................. Lost workday cases................................................................... Lost workdays............................................................................ Retail trade: Total cases.............................................................................. Lost workday cases................................................................... Lost workdays............................................................................ 1994 4 1995 4 Nondurable goods: Total cases.............................................................................. Lost workday cases.................................................................. Lost workdays........................................................................... - - - - - - - - 1997 4 - 5.2 2.4 - - 4.9 2.2 - ' Data for 1989 and subsequent years are based on the Standa rd Industrial Class 1987 Edition. For this reason, they are not strictly comparable with data for the years 1985-88, which were based on the Standard Industrial Classification M anual, 1972 Edition, 1977 Supplement. N = number of injuries and illnesses or lost workdays; EH = total hours worked by all employees during the calendar year; and 200,000 = base for 100 full-time equivalent workers (working 40 hours per week, 50 weeks per year). 2 Beginning with the 1992 survey, the annual survey measures only nonfatal injuries and illnesses, while past surveys covered both fatal and nonfatal incidents. To better address fatalities, a basic element of workplace safety, BLS implemented the Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries. 4 Beginning with the 1993 survey, lost workday estimates will not be generated. As of 1992, BLS began generating percent distributions and the median number of days away from work by industry and for groups of workers sustaining similar work disabilities. 5 Excludes farms with fewer than 11 employees since 1976. Dash indicates data not available. ification M anual, 3 The incidence rates represent the number of injuries and illnesses or lost workdays per 100 full-time workers and were calculated as (N/EH) X 200,000, where: https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monthly Labor Review November 2001 143 Current Labor Statistics: Injury and Illness 47. Fatal occupational injuries by event or exposure, 1993-98 F a ta litie s E v e n t o r e xp o s u re 1 1 99 8 1 9 9 3 -9 7 1 99 7 2 A v e ra g e N um ber N um ber P e rc e n t 6,335 6,238 6,026 100 2,611 1,334 652 109 234 132 249 360 267 388 214 315 373 106 83 2,605 1,393 640 103 230 142 282 387 298 377 216 261 367 109 93 2,630 1,431 701 118 271 142 306 373 300 384 216 223 413 112 60 44 24 12 2 4 2 5 6 5 6 4 4 7 2 1 1,241 995 810 75 110 215 1,111 860 708 73 79 216 960 709 569 ' 61 79 223 16 12 9 1 1 4 1,005 573 369 65 290 153 124 1,035 579 384 54 320 189 118 941 517 317 58 266 129 140 16 9 5 1 4 2 2 668 591 94 139 83 52 716 653 116 154 87 44 702 623 111 156 97 51 12 10 2 3 2 1 Oxygen deficiency........................................................................ Drowning, submersion............................................................... 586 320 128 43 120 70 101 8C 554 298 138 40 123 59 90 72 572 334 153 46 104 46 87 75 9 6 3 1 2 1 1 1 F ir e s a n d e x p l o s i o n s .......................................................................................... 199 196 205 3 O t h e r e v e n t s o r e x p o s u r e s 3............................................................................. 26 21 16 - Total...................................................................................... T r a n s p o r t a t io n i n c i d e n t s .................................................................................... Highway incident........................................................................... Collision between vehicles, mobile equipment........................... Moving in same direction........................................................ Moving in opposite directions, oncoming................................ Moving in intersection............................................................. Vehicle struck stationary object or equipment............................ Noncollision incident................................................................... Jackknifed or overturned—no collision................................... Nonhighway (farm, industrial premises) incident.......................... Overturned.................................................................................. Aircraft........................................................................................... Worker struck by a vehicle............................................................ Water vehicle incident.................................................................... Railway.......................................................................................... A s s a u l t s a n d v io l e n t a c t s .................................................................................. Shooting..................................................................................... Stabbing..................................................................................... Other, including bombing.......................................................... Self-inflicted injuries....................................................................... C o n t a c t w it h o b j e c t s a n d e q u ip m e n t ......................................................... Struck by object............................................................................. Struck by falling object............................................................... Struck by flying object................................................................ Caught in or compressed by equipment or objects...................... Caught in running equipment or machinery............................... F a ll s .................................................................................................................................. Fall from ladder........................................................................... Fall from scaffold, staging.......................................................... Fall on same level......................................................................... E x p o s u r e t o h a r m f u l s u b s t a n c e s o r e n v ir o n m e n t s ......................... Contact with overhead power lines............................................ Contact with temperature extremes............................................. Exposure to caustic, noxious, or allergenic substances............... 1 Based on the 1992 bls Occupational Injury and Illness 3 Includes the category "Bodily reaction and exertion." Classification Structures. 2 The BLS news release issued August 12, 1998, reported a total of 6,218 fatal work Injuries for calendar year 1997. Since then, an additional 20 job-related fatalities were identified, bringing the total job-related fatality count for 1997 to 6,238. Monthly Labor Review 144 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NOTE: Totals for major categories may include sub categories not shown separately. Percentages may not add to totals because of rounding. Dash indicates less than 0.5 percent. November 2001 Obtaining information from the Bureau of Labor Statistics O ffice or Topic Bureau of Labor Statistics Information services In ternet address http://www.bls.gov http://www.bls.gov/opbinfo.htm E-mail blsdata_staff@bls.gov Employment and unemployment Employment, hours, and earnings: National State and local Labor force statistics: National Local Ul-covered employment, wages Occupational employment Mass layoffs Longitudinal data http://www.bls.gov/ceshome.htm http://www.bls.gov/790home.htm cesinfo@bls.gov data_sa@bls.gov http://www.bls.gov/cpshome.htm http://www.bls.gov/lauhome.htm http://www.bls.gov/cewhome.htm http://www.bls.gov/oeshome,htm http://www.bls.gov/lauhome.htm http://www.bls.gov/nlshome.htm cpsinfo@bls.gov lausinfo@bls.gov 202_info@bls.gov oesinfo@bls.gov mlsinfo@bls.gov nls_info@bls.gov Prices and living conditions Consumer price indexes Producer price indexes) Import and export price indexes Consumer expenditures http://www.bls.gov/cpihome.htm http://www.bls.gov/ppihome.htm http://www.bls.gov/ipphome.htm http://www.bls.gov/csxhome.htm cpi_info@bls.gov ppi-info@bls.gov ippinfo_ipp@bls.gov cexinfo@bls.gov Compensation and working conditions National Compensation Survey: Employee benefits Employment cost trends Occupational compensation Occupational illnesses, injuries Fatal occupational injuries Collective bargaining http://www.bls.gov/comhome.htm http://www.bls.gov/ebshome.htm http://www.bls.gov/ecthome.htm http://www.bls.gov/ocshome.htm http://www.bls.gov/oshhome.htm http://stats.bls.gov/oshcfoi 1.htm http://www.bls.gov/cbahome.htm ocltinfo@bls.gov ocltinfo@bls.gov ocltinfo@bls.gov ocltinfo@bls.gov oshstaff@bls.gov cfoistaff@bls.gov cbainfo@bls.gov Productivity Labor Industry Multifactor http://www.bls.gov/lprhome.htm http://www.bls.gov/iprhome.htm http://www.bls.gov/mprhome.gov dprweb@bls.gov dipsweb@bls.gov dprweb@bls.gov Projections Employment Occupation http://www.bls.gov/emphome.htm http://www.bls.gov/ocohome.htm oohinfo@bls.gov oohinfo@bls.gov International http://www.bls.gov/flshome.htm flshelp@bls.gov Regional centers Atlanta Boston Chicago Dallas Kansas City New York Philadelphia San Francisco http://www.bls.gov/ro4home.htm http://www.bls.gov/ro 1home.htm http://www.bls.gov/ro5home.htm http://www.bls.gov/ro6home.htm http://www.bls.gov/ro7home.htm http://www.bls.gov/ro2home.htm http://www.bls.gov/ro3home.htm http://www.bls.gov/ro9home.htm BLSinfoAtlanta@bls.gov BLSinfoBoston@bls.gov BLSinfoChicago@bls.gov BLSinfoDallas@bls.gov BLSinfoKansasCity@bls.gov BLSinfoNY@bls.gov BLSinfoPhiladelphia@bls.gov BLSinfoSF@bls.gov Other Federal statistical agencies http://www.fedstats.gov https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Bureau of Labor Statistics Postal Square Building, Rm. 2850 2 Massachusetts Ave., NE Washington, DC 20212-0001 Periodicals Postage and Fees Paid U.S. Department of Labor USPS 987-800 Official Business Penalty for Private Use, $300 Address Service Requested MLR FE DR E 4 4 2 F IS SD UE 01 0R 1 FED RE SE RV E BANK OF ST LOUIS CAROL T H A X T0 N L I B R AR Y UNIT PO BOX 442 SA IN T LOUI S M0 63166 Schedule of release dates for BLS statistical series MLR table number Series Release date Period covered Release date Period covered Release date Period covered Employment situation November 2 October December 7 November January 4 December Productivity and costs November 7 3rd quarter December 6 3rd quarter U.S. import and Export Price Indexes November 8 October December 12 November January 10 December 34-38 Producer Price Indexes November 9 October December 13 November January 11 December 2; 31-33 Consumer Price indexes November 16 October December 14 November January 16 December 2; 28-30 Real earnings November 16 October December 14 November January 16 December 14, 16 January 31 4th quarter 1-3 ; 21-24 Employment Cost Indexes https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 1;4-20 2;39-42
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