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MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
U.S. D e p a rtm e n t of Labor
B u re a u of L ab o r S ta tistics
N o v e m b e r 1983
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
In this issue:
Projections of the U.S. labor force, GNP,
industrial growth, and occupations to 1995
V
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
Raymond J. Donovan, Secretary
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS
J a n e t L. N o rw o o d , Commissioner
T h e M o n th ly L a b o r R e v ie w is p u b lis h e d b y th e
B u re a u o f L a b o r S ta tis tic s o f th e U .S . D e p a rtm e n t
o f L a b o r. C o m m u n ic a tio n s o n e d ito ria l m a tte rs
s h o u ld b e a d d re s s e d to th e E d ito r-in -C h ie f,
M o n th ly L a b o r R e v ie w , B u re a u o f L a b o r S ta tis tic s ,
W a s h in g to n , D .C . 2 0 2 1 2 .
P h o n e : (2 0 2 ) 5 2 3 - 1 3 2 7 .
S u b s c rip tio n p ric e p e r y e a r— $ 2 6 d o m e s tic : $ 3 2 .5 0 fo re ig n .
S in g le c o p y $ 5 , d o m e s tic : $ 6 .2 5 , fo re ig n .
S u b s c rip tio n p ric e s a n d d is trib u tio n p o lic ie s fo r th e
M o n th ly L a b o r R e v ie w (IS S N 0 0 9 8 -1 8 1 8 ) a n d o th e r G o v e rn m e n t
p u b lic a tio n s a re s e t b y th e G o v e rn m e n t P rin tin g O ffic e ,
a n a g e n c y o f th e U .S . C o n g re s s . S e n d c o rre s p o n d e n c e
o n c irc u la tio n a n d s u b s c rip tio n m a tte rs (in c lu d in g
a d d re s s c h a n g e s ) to :
S u p e rin te n d e n t o f D o c u m e n ts ,
G o v e rn m e n t P rin tin g O ffic e ,
W a s h in g to n , D .C . 2 0 4 0 2
M a k e c h e c k s p a y a b le to S u p e rin te n d e n t o f D o c u m e n ts .
T h e S e c re ta ry o f L a b o r h a s d e te rm in e d th a t th e
p u b lic a tio n o f th is p e rio d ic a l is n e c e s s a ry in th e
tra n s a c tio n o f th e p u b lic b u s in e s s re q u ire d b y
la w o f th is D e p a rtm e n t. U s e o f fu n d s fo r p rin tin g
th is p e rio d ic a l h a s b e e n a p p ro v e d b y th e D ire c to r
o f th e O ffic e o f M a n a g e m e n t a n d B u d g e t
th ro u g h A p ril 3 0 , 198 7 . S e c o n d -c la s s
p o s ta g e p a id a t W a s h in g to n . D .C . a n d a t a d d itio n a l m a ilin g a d d re s s e s .
Regional Commissioners
for Bureau of Labor Statistics
R e g io n I— B o s to n : Anthony J. Ferrara
1 6 0 3 J F K F e d e ra l B u ild in g , G o v e rn m e n t C e n te r,
B o s to n , M a s s . 0 2 2 0 3
P h o n e : (6 1 7 ) 2 2 3 - 6 7 6 1
C o n n e c tic u t
M a in e
M a s s a c h u s e tts
N e w H a m p s h ire
R h o d e Is la n d
V e rm o n t
R e g io n II— N e w Y o rk : Samuel M. Ehrenhalt
1 5 1 5 B ro a d w a y , S u ite 3 4 0 0 , N e w Y o rk , N .Y . 1 0 0 3 6
P h o n e : (2 1 2 ) 9 4 4 - 3 1 2 1
N e w J e rs e y
N e w Y o rk
P u e rto R ico
V irg in Is la n d s
R e g io n III— P h ila d e lp h ia : Alvin I. Margulis
3 5 3 5 M a rk e t S tre e t
P .O . B o x 1 3 3 0 9 , P h ila d e lp h ia , P a. 19101
P h o n e : (2 1 5 ) 5 9 6 - 1 1 5 4
D e la w a re
D is tric t o f C o lu m b ia
M a ry la n d
P e n n s y lv a n ia
V irg in ia
W e s t V irg in ia
R e g io n IV — A tla n t a : Donald M. Cruse
1371 P e a c h tre e S tre e t, N .E .. A tla n ta , G a . 3 0 3 6 7
P h o n e : (4 0 4 ) 8 8 1 - 4 4 1 8
A la b a m a
F lo rid a
G e o rg ia
K e n tu c k y
M is s is s ip p i
N o rth C a ro lin a
S o u th C a ro lin a
Tennessee
R e g io n V — C h ic a g o : William E. Rice
9 th F lo o r, F e d e ra l O ffic e B u ild in g , 2 3 0 S. D e a rb o rn S tre e t,
C h ic a g o , III. 6 0 6 0 4
P h o n e : (3 1 2 ) 3 5 3 - 1 8 8 0
Illin o is
In d ia n a
M ic h ig a n
M in n e s o ta
O h io
W is c o n s in
R e g io n V I— D a lla s : Bryan Richey
S e c o n d F lo o r, 5 5 5 G riffin S q u a re B u ild in g , D a lla s , T e x . 7 5 2 0 2
P h o n e : (2 1 4 ) 7 6 7 - 6 9 7 1
A rka n sa s
L o u is ia n a
N e w M e x ic o
O k la h o m a
Texas
R e g io n s V II a n d V III— K a n s a s C ity : Elliott A. Browar
911 W a ln u t S tre e t, K a n s a s C ity . M o . 6 4 1 0 6
P h o n e : (8 1 6 ) 3 7 4 - 2 4 8 1
V II
Io w a
Kansas
M is s o u ri
N e b ra s k a
V III
C o lo ra d o
M o n ta n a
N o rth D a k o ta
S o u th D a k o ta
U ta h
W y o m in g
N o vem b er cover:
“ Golconde," a 1953 oil painting
by Rene Magritte, from the
D. and J. de Menil Collection,
photograph courtesy National Galley of Art,
Washington, D.C.
Cover design by Melvin B. Moxley
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
R e g io n s IX a n d X — S a n F ra n c is c o : Sam M. Hirabayashi
4 5 0 G o ld e n G a te A v e n u e , B o x 3 6 0 1 7 ,
S a n F ra n c is c o , C a lif. 9 4 1 0 2
P h o n e : (4 1 5 ) 5 5 6 - 4 6 7 8
IX
A m e ric a n S a m o a
A riz o n a
C a lifo rn ia
G uam
H a w a ii
N evada
T ru s t T e rrito ry o f th e P a c ific Is la n d s
X
A la s k a
Id a h o
O re g o n
W a s h in g to n
M O N THLY LABO R REVIEW
NO VEM B ER 1983
LIBRARY
DEC 7
VO LUM E 106, NUM BER 11
1983
Henry Lowenstern, Editor-in-Chief
Robert W. Fisher, Executive Editor
TH E U.S. EC O N O M Y IN 1995
H. N Fullerton Jr., J. T s c h e tte r
3
The 1995 labor force: a second look
A bout 131.4 m illion persons are e xp e cte d to be In the 1995 labor force, 3.8 m illion
m ore than projected earlier; alternative pro je ctio n s now e m b o d y e co n o m ic assum ptions
A. J. A n d re a s s e n and o th ers
11
Econom ic outlook for the 1990’s: three scenario s for grow th
Alternative m onetary and fiscal assum ptions s u g g e st quite different trends in GNP
and unem ploym ent through 1995; in all versions, grow th ta p e rs after 1988
V alerie A. P e rso n ick
24
The job outlook through 1995: industry output and em ploym ent
Recovery Is expected in construction and du ra b le goods, but services will continue
to lead job growth; several heavy Industries will not reach their past peaks
G e o rg e T. S ilvestri and o thers
37
O ccupational em ploym ent projections through 1995
During 1 9 8 2 -9 5 , health care will continue to be an e x p a n din g field of work,
and the outlook is b right for engineers and co m p u te r personnel
R ich a rd W. R iche a nd o th ers
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
50
High technology today and tom orrow : sm all slice of em ploym ent
\H igh tech industries are exp e cte d to pro vid e only a sm all pro p o rtio n of jo b s created
betw een 1982 and 1995, under three co n ce p ts e m b ra cin g from six to 48 industries
O THER A R TIC LES
M ark J. Jo h n so n
59
Im port prices decline, export prices m ixed in first half
Lower oil prices and the strength of the d o llar w ere m ajor fa cto rs in U.S. foreign trade;
sluggish exports m ade for a record trade d e ficit d e sp ite the d ro p in im port orices
DEPA R TM EN TS
2
71
72
76
81
Labor month in review
Major agreements expiring next month
Developments in industrial relations
Book reviews
Current labor statistics
Labor M onth
In Review
INJURIES AND ILLNESSES. Jobrelated injuries and illnesses continued
to decline in 1982, according to the
Bureau of Labor Statistics’ annual
survey of private industry workplaces.
There were 4.75 million work-related in
juries in 1982, a decline of nearly
530,000 cases from 1981. The incidence
of injuries per 100 workers (injury in
cidence rate) fell to 7.7, compared with
an 8.3 rate in 1981. (About 0.1 of this
decline may be attributed to a dispropor
tionate drop in hours worked in highrisk industries.) There were 105,600 oc
cupational illnesses, down from 126,100
in 1981. Establishments with 11 workers
or more recorded 4,090 deaths. Nearly
30 percent of these fatalities were from
car and truck accidents.
Injuries. The injury incidence rate
declined in agriculture, forestry, and
fishing; mining; construction; manufac
turing; transportation and public utili
ties; and wholesale trade. The rate in
creased in retail trade and in finance, in
surance, and real estate; and remained
the same in services. The construction
industry had the highest incidence rate,
and the finance, insurance, and real
estate industry, the lowest.
Injury incidence rates fell in estab
lishments of all sizes except those with
fewer than 50 employees, which showed
no change. As in previous years, rates
were lowest in establishments with fewer
than 50 workers or more than 1,000.
Rates remained highest in establishments
with 100 to 249 employees; in this
category, manufacturing had the largest
decline, while construction posted the
only increase. As in 1981, the number of
injuries per 100 workers dropped in each
employment-size class in the manufac
turing division.
Lost workdays. Less than half (45 per
cent) of all injuries in 1982 involved lost
worktime. The number of injuries re
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sulting in lost workdays declined from
2.41 million in 1981 to 2.14 million in
1982. Nonfatal injuries without loss of
worktime also dropped.
Total days lost because of occupa
tional injuries declined from 39.2 million
in 1981 to 36.1 million in 1982—a drop
equivalent to a full year of work for
about 144,500 employees. The average
number of days lost per injury of this
type was 17 (16 in 1981). The wholesale
trade and services industries did not
show an increase in the average number
of lost workdays. Mining establishments
continued to have the highest number of
average lost workdays per injury—25
days (up 1 day from 1981), and the con
struction and transportation and public
utilities industry divisions also had
above-average numbers of lost work
days.
The severity of lost workdays because
o f occupational injuries can be
measured by the number of workdays
lost per 100 full-time workers (lost work
day incidence rate). The all-industry in
cidence rate was 57.5 in 1982, down
from 60.4 in 1981. Among industries,
mining continued to have the highest
rate, although it had the largest drop,
from 145.7 days in 1981 to 136.7 in 1982.
The largest increases occurred in the
construction and agriculture, forestry,
and fishing industries.
The number of injuries per 100
workers which involved lost workdays
decreased in agriculture, forestry, and
fishing; mining; construction; manufac
turing; transportation and public utili
ties; and wholesale trade. It remained
unchanged or increased only slightly in
the other industries.
Illnesses. Skin disorders continued to ac
count for the majority of reported oc
cupational illnesses in 1982, about 40
percent. Physical disorders associated
with repeated trauma showed the largest
percentage increase in total illnesses, 21
percent, compared with 18 percent in
1981.
An occupational illness is any abnor
mal condition or disorder caused by ex
posure to environmental factors asso
ciated with employment. It includes
acute and chronic illnesses or diseases
which may be caused by inhalation, ab
sorption, ingestion, or direct contact.
The incidence of occupational illnesses
measured by the annual survey refers to
the number of new cases occurring dur
ing the year and does not measure con
tinuing conditions reported in previous
surveys. Thus, illnesses are recorded on
ly for the year in which they are
recognized and diagnosed as workrelated.
O c c u p a tio n a l illness estim ates
generated from the annual survey pro
vide a valid measure of recognized acute
cases. However, they do not adequately
reflect the portion of occupational
illlnesses which are chronic and longlatent in nature.
The survey. The Annual Survey of Oc
cupational Injuries and Illnesses is a
cooperative program in which State
agencies participate with the Bureau of
Labor Statistics. The survey covers
establishments in private industries, ex
cept for the self-employed; farmers with
fewer than 11 employees; and private
households.
The data are based on the records
which employers maintain under the Oc
cupational Safety and Health Act of
1970. Response to the 1982 survey was
mandatory and involved a sample of ap
proximately 280,000 establishments.
Detailed information on occupational
injuries and illnesses in 1982 are contain
ed in news release u s d l 83-471, available
from the Bureau of Labor Statistics,
Inquiries and Correspondence, 441
G Street, N.W., Washington, D.C.
20212.
□
The 1995 labor force:
a second look
About 131A million persons are expected to be
in the 1995 labor force, 3.8 million more
than projected earlier; alternative projections
use various demographic and, fo r the first time,
economic assumptions about the labor force
H o w a r d N F u l l e r t o n , Jr .
and
Jo h n T s c h e t t e r
During the 1982-95 period, the number of persons of prime
working age (25-54) in the labor force is expected to grow
considerably faster than the total labor force. Young workers
will decline in absolute numbers as the rate of growth of
the total labor force slows markedly. These growth trends
reflect the aging of the baby-boom generation and a sub
sequent sharp decline in birth rates.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has revised its labor force
projections for the 1982-95 period.1 For the middle scen
ario, which assumes that labor force participation of women
will accelerate then taper off, the civilian labor force is
projected to reach 131.4 million persons by 1995, 3.8 mil
lion more than projected earlier.2 The labor force is expected
to grow 1.6 percent per year over the 1982-90 period,
slowing to 1.0 percent per year during 1990-95, thus con
tinuing the slow growth which began in the late 1970’s.
Nearly two-thirds of the growth will be among women;
nearly one-fourth will be among the black and other group.3
This article presents new projections for the 1995 labor
force with alternative demographic and, for the first time,
economic assumptions. The demographic alternatives illus
trate the sensitivity of the size of the projected labor force
to various assumptions regarding the behavior of age, sex,
and racial groups.4 The economic alternatives explore the
Howard N Fullerton, Jr. and John Tschetter are economists in the Office
of Economic Growth and Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Sta
tistics.
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
sensitivity of labor force changes to assumptions about real
earnings and the employment rate.
Methodology
Labor force projections require population projections.
The latter have been prepared by the Bureau of the Census
by age, sex, and race, based on trends in birth rates, death
rates, and net m igration.5 Once the population projections
are prepared, b l s can project labor force participation rates—
the percent of each group in the population who will be
working or seeking work— for 64 age, sex, and race groups.
To develop labor force participation rates for each group,
rates of growth over the 1962-81 period (or subperiods) are
analyzed using the most appropriate time period for each
group. If past trends are deemed not likely to continue
throughout the projection period, the rates are modified.
The rate of change in labor force participation was modified
for several groups: women ages 20-44 and 45 and over,
and men ages 55 and over. The rates of change in partici
pation for all groups are tapered so thaLthe annual changes
would be zero after the year 2004.
For women ages 20 to 44, it is assumed that the rate of
change in participation will accelerate during the 1982-85
period to allow some partial recovery from the 1980-82
economic slowdown. These projections assume that some
of the 1980-82 slowdown in female participation rates are
permanent, particularly when compared with the trends of
the early and mid-1970’s.
3
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • The 1995 Labor Force
For the older labor force, the participation rates have been
declining over the 1962-81 period. It is assumed that these
declines will moderate. If the historical trends for some older
groups continue, the resulting participation rates would ap
proach zero. These modifications for women and older workers
were made to each age group within these broad groups.
The historical rates of change in participation for all re
maining labor force groups are assumed to continue.
The levels of anticipated labor force are calculated by
applying projected participation rates to the Bureau of the
Census’ population projections.
slower, rise in participation among women ages 20 to 44.
(See tables 1 and 2.) In contrast, the increases in the labor
force during the 1970’s were influenced by the initial en
trance of the baby-boom generation, and by the very rapid
increases in the labor force activity of women, particularly
married women ages 20 to 44. As a consequence of these
changing influences, labor force growth is expected to slow
in the late 1980’s and the 1990’s.
The following tabulation shows labor force growth from
1950 to 1982 and projected growth from 1983 to 1995, by
age group:
Middle growth scenario
195060
Age 16 and over .
1.3
16 to 24 ..............
.0
25 to 5 4 .............. . 1.3
55 and over .........
1.6
The overall growth in the labor force over the next 8 to
12 years will be influenced by the baby-boom generation,
which will attain those ages at which both men and women
have their highest participation; and by the continued, but
196070
1.7
4.5
1.0
1.4
197082
2.4
2.7
2.3
.3
198290
1.6
- 1.3
2.9
- .7
199095
1.0
-.8
1.6
- .2
The uncertainty of projections
Knowledge or insights concerning future employment
trends is very valuable. . . . Such information is used to
plan careers and training programs, and develop business
expansion plans and public policy. However, information
about future employment growth is clouded by uncer
tainty. . . . It is very important for users to understand the
imprecise nature of projections so they can deal with the
information properly.
Although virtually no data about changes in the economy
over a 10-year period can be anticipated with absolute cer
tainty, there are differing degrees of uncertainty. To illus
trate, I would say with relative certitude that the younger
labor force is going to decline in this decade. The population
which will be 16 years or older in 1990 is born and unless
there are truly revolutionary changes in labor force partic
ipation rates for young people along with dramatic infusions
through immigration of young people, the young labor force
will decline. Perhaps, at the other end of the scale the
uncertainty would be a projection of employment in the oil
and gas well drilling industry. If I knew what the price of
oil would be in 1990 or 1995, perhaps I could come close
to projecting the level of employment in that industry. But
the factors that will determine the price of oil in 1990 are
themselves subject to great variances and uncertainty.
For much of the information on projections, the uncer
tainty lies between these two extremes. For example, the
occupation “ computer service technician” is projected to
grow very rapidly. From 1982 to 1995, its projected growth
is 97 percent. I am confident that employment in this oc
cupation will grow rapidly, certainly much faster than the
average growth of the economy over this period. However,
I am not certain that the growth rate will be 97 percent or
even fall within the 94-98 percent range shown in our
alternatives. The growth rate could be significantly greater.
Some occupations of this size, 55,000 in 1982, have grown
much faster in the past. Still, a growth rate of only 50 percent
is not beyond the realm of impossibility.
Concerns received from the public have led us to think
and probe further in terms of asking questions about our
projections. For example, in the last 6 months, the De-
4
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
partment of Defense and some of the defense industries have
said there is a critical shortage of engineers that should be
reflected in our publications. During the same period, we
have had three groups representing the engineering profes
sions say that bls has been painting such a rosy picture for
engineers that we are causing a flood in the market and that
their member engineers cannot find jobs.
Which of these groups is correct? We examined this
dilemma and concluded that there probably are two distinct
markets for engineers. One is new college graduates who
are currently in short supply— in at least some engineering
disciplines—and these are principally among the engineer
ing categories used by defense contractors. But 45 year-old
engineers who are working on a product or product line that
has been cancelled are in a tough job market because they
are not always able to compete with the young engineer.
The important point here is that if this situation is true for
engineers, it may also be true for accountants and auditors,
lawyers, and many other occupations.
Economists and others involved in forecasting economic
activity understand the uncertain nature of projections.
However, others, including those who are primary users of
the information, may not. Thus, the development of nu
merical projections is only the first task in presenting in
formation on economic trends or employment growth. It is
just as important to present the data in a meaningful way.
Unfortunately, this task is neither simple nor straight for
ward. Despite b l s ’ experience with and concern about the
subject, we still are not sure our users understand the un
certainty attached to our projected data. The Bureau hopes
that by indicating the factors underlying growth, preparing
evaluation of previous projections, and discussing alterna
tives and assumptions, we will provide users with some idea
of the uncertainties.
—Ronald E. Kutscher
Associate Commissioner
Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Remarks before a Labor Market Information
Conference in Atlanta, Ga., June 1983
T able 1.
C ivilian labor force, by sex, age, and race, 1 9 7 0 -8 2 , and m iddle grow th projection to 1995
Participation rate
Labor force (in thousands)
Labor group
1970
1980
1982
1990
1995
1970
1980
1982
1990
1995
82,771
106,940
110,204
124,951
131,387
60.4
63.8
64.0
66.9
67.8
51,228
9,725
4,008
5,717 .
32,213
11,327
10,469
10,417
9,291
7,126
2,165
61,453
13,606
4,999
8,607
38,712
16,971
11,836
9,905
9,135
7,242
1,893
62,450
13,074
4,470
8,604
40,357
17,793
12,781
9,784
9,019
7,174
1,845
67,701
11,274
4,123
7,151
48,180
19,569
17,469
11,142
8,247
6,419
1,828
69,970
10,573
4,043
6,530
51,358
18,105
19,446
13,807
8,039
6,311
1,728
79.7
69.4
56.1
83.3
95.8
96.4
96.9
94.3
55.7
83.0
26.8
77.4
74.4
60.5
85.9
94.2
95.2
95.5
91.2
45.6
72.1
19.0
76.6
72.6
56.7
84.9
94.0
94.7
95.3
91.2
43.8
70.2
17.8
76.5
74.7
62.3
84.4
93.8
93.7
95.6
91.3
37.4
65.5
14.9
76.1
74.5
62.9
84.1
93.4
93.1
95.3
91.1
35.3
64.5
13.3
Women.............................................
16 to 24.........................................
16 to 1 9 .....................................
20 to 24 .....................................
25 to 54 .........................................
25 to 34 .....................................
35 to 44 .....................................
45 to 5 4 .....................................
55 and over ...................................
55 to 64 .....................................
65 and over .................................
31,543
8,121
3,241
4,880
18,208
5,708
5,968
6,532
5,213
4,157
1,056
45,487
11,696
4,381
7,315
27,888
12,257
8,627
7,004
5,904
4,742
1,161
47,755
11,533
4,056
7,477
30,149
13,393
9,651
7,105
6,073
4,888
1,185
57,250
10,813
3,778
7,035
40,496
16,804
14,974
8,718
5,941
4,612
1,329
61,417
10,557
3,761
6,796
44,852
16,300
17,427
11,125
6,008
4,671
1,337
43.3
51.3
44.0
57.7
50.1
45.0
51.1
54.4
25.3
43.0
9.7
51.5
61.9
52.9
68.9
64.0
65.5
65.5
59.9
22.8
41.3
8.1
52.6
62.0
51.4
69.8
66.3
68.0
68.0
61.6
22.7
41.8
7.9
58.3
69.1
56.8
78.1
75.6
78.1
78.6
67.1
20.5
41.5
7.4
60.3
71.6
58.2
82.0
78.7
81.7
82.8
69.5
19.9
42.5
7.0
White...................................................
Men .................................................
16 to 24.........................................
25 to 54 .........................................
55 and over ...................................
Women.............................................
16 to 24....................'....................
25 to 54 .........................................
55 and over ...................................
73,556
46,035
8,540
29,000
8,494
27,521
7,141
15,690
4,690
93,600
54,473
11,902
34,224
8,345
39,127
10,179
23,723
5,226
96,143
55,133
11,371
35,565
8,197
41,010
10,013
25,619
5,378
107,734
59,201
9,854
41,864
7,483
48,533
9,285
34,081
5,167
112,393
60,757
9,271
44,232
7,254
51,636
9,025
37,433
5,178
60.2
80.0
70.2
96.3
55.8
42.6
52.1
48.9
24.9
64.1
78.2
76.7
95.0
46.1
51.2
64.4
63.4
22.4
64.3
77.4
74.9
94.9
44.2
52.4
64.7
66.1
22.4
67.3
77.4
78.5
94.8
37.8
58.1
72.5
75.6
20.1
68.1
77.0
79.1
94.5
35.6
60.0
75.4
78.7
19.5
Black and other .....................................
Men .................................................
16 to 24.........................................
25 to 54 .........................................
55 and over ...................................
Women.............................................
16 to 24.........................................
25 to 54 .........................................
55 and over ...................................
9,218
5,194
1,185
3,212
796
4,024
982
2,517
524
13,340
6,980
1,702
4,488
790
6,359
1,516
4,164
678
14,062
7,317
1,702
4,792
822
6,745
1,520
4,529
695
17,217
8,500
1,420
6,316
764
8,717
1,528
6,415
774
18,994
9,213
1,302
7,126
785
9,781
1,532
7,419
830
61.8
76.5
64.5
91.9
54.7
49.5
46.3
59.2
30.0
61.7
71.5
61.6
88.6
40.8
53.6
49.3
67.0
26.4
61.6
71.0
60.0
88.0
40.5
53.9
48.8
67.9
25.5
64.8
71.0
55.9
87.6
34.3
59.7
53.7
75.8
23.5
65.7
70.6
52.7
87.2
32.6
61.7
55.3
78.7
22.8
Total, age 16 and over.............................
Men
...........................................
16 to 24.........................................
16 to 19 .....................................
20 to 24
25 to 54 .........................................
25 to 34 .....................................
35 to 44 .....................................
55 and over ...................................
55 to 64 .....................................
65 and over .................................
The slowdown actually began in 1979. The peak labor force
growth, 3.0 percent per year, occurred between 1976 and
1979. Over the 1979-82 period, growth was only 1.6 per
cent per year, reflecting the slowing of long-term growth,
as well as the repercussions of 3 years of flat economic
growth.
Over the 1982-95 period, there will be a pronounced
shift in the age structure of the labor force. The 25- to 54year-old labor force is expected to grow considerably faster
T able 2.
than the total labor force, 1.3 percentage points per year
faster during the 1982-90 period. At the same time, the
number of 16- to 24-year-old participants is projected to
decline in absolute numbers. During the 1960’s and 1970’s,
the labor force growth of younger workers was by far the
fastest of any age group, reflecting the baby-boom gener
ation initially entering and then maturing in the labor force.
As this young generation ages in the 1990’s, the number of
persons ages 25 to 34 will decline. A shift from a young
B lack civilian labor force, by sex and age, 1 9 7 2 -8 2 , and m iddle grow th projection to 1995
Labor group
Participation rate
Labor force (in thousands)
1972
1980
1982
1990
1995
1972
1980
1982
1990
1995
Blacks, age 16 and over...........................
8,707
10,865
11,331
13,600
14,833
59.9
61.0
61.0
64.5
65.4
Men .................................................
16 to 24.........................................
25 to 54.........................................
55 and over ...................................
4,816
1,214
2,917
687
5,612
1,414
3,551
647
5,804
1,401
3,745
660
6,687
1,156
4,939
592
7,297
1,055
5,549
583
73.7
63.9
90.0
49.1
70.6
62.0
88.4
39.3
70.1
60.3
87.7
39.0
70.4
55.9
87.4
33.2
70.5
54.0
87.0
31.3
Women.............................................
16 to 24.........................................
25 to 54 .........................................
55 and over ...................................
3,890
967
2,421
503
5,253
1,279
3,387
588
5,527
1,272
3,660
595
6,913
1,210
5,073
630
7,646
1,180
5,805
661
48.7
45.0
60.0
27.8
53.2
48.9
67.6
26.1
53.7
48.4
68.8
25.3
59.0
51.8
75.7
23.6
61.2
53.2
78.6
22.9
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5
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • The 1995 Labor Force
to a prime working-age population in itself induces an in
crease in the overall participation rate, as prime-age persons
are more likely to be in the labor force.
The population ages 55 and older will continue to in
crease. However, the participation rates for this group are
projected to continue declining. For men, the increased pop
ulation and declining participation have resulted in absolute
declines in their number in the labor force. For women, this
combination is expected to result in a relatively constant
number in the labor force over the next decade. It is assumed
that the new social security laws will not affect the trend of
labor force participation for the population 55 and older
between now and 1995.
These variations in growth rates by age groups mean that
persons ages 25 to 54 will account for a much greater share
of the 1995 labor force than the 1982 labor force. Prime
working-age persons (25 to 54) are expected to account for
about 73 percent of the 1995 labor force, up from 61 percent
in 1970, and 64 percent in 1982. The growing proportion
of prime-age participants could favorably affect productivity
because of the greater continuity of participation by women
and because of the higher educational attainment of all par
ticipants. This continuity and educational attainment imply
that the future labor force will be more experienced and
better trained, compared with the 1970’s when younger
workers (ages 16 to 24) accounted for a large share of labor
force growth. The maturing of the labor force in the 1980’s
and 1990’s means that employers may have difficulties find
ing young workers. The decline in the number of youths
will be particularly important to the Armed Forces, the
single largest employer of young men.
Median age. The median age of the labor force will rise
slightly over the next 10 to 15 years. The median age was
fairly constant between 1950 and 1970, but dropped sharply
between 1970 and 1980 when the baby-boom generation
entered the labor force. The following tabulation shows the
median age of the labor force for 1950 to 1980 and the
projected median age for 1990 and 1995, by sex and race:
1950
All participants .. 38.6
Men ...................... 39.3
Women ................. 36.7
White .....................
—
Black and other...
—
1960
1970
1982
1990
1995
40.5
40.5
40.4
40.7
38.2
39.0
39.4
38.3
39.3
36.6
34.8
35.3
34.2
35.0
32.8
35.9
36.4
35.3
36.1
34.8
37.3
37.8
36.8
37.5
36.3
The differences in median age between men and women
and between whites and black and other minorities reflect
the age mix of the respective labor forces. For example, in
1982, men ages 55 and over accounted for 14.4 percent of
the male labor force; women ages 55 and over accounted
for only 12.7 percent of the female labor force. These me
dian age differences between the two groups are projected
to continue.
6
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Women and minorities. During the 1982-95 period, the
number of women and minorities in the labor force are
projected to grow faster than the overall labor force. The
following tabulation shows total labor force growth and
growth for women, blacks, and black and other minorities
for the 1950-82 period, and projected growth, 1982-95:
195060
1.3
Total ........
W omen................ 2.4
Black and other .. —
Blacks ............
—
196070
1.7
3.1
1.8
—
197082
2.4
3.5
3.6
—
198290
1.6
2.3
2.6
2.3
199095
1.0
1.4
2.0
1.8
Women, both white and black, will account for about
two-thirds of the labor force growth during the 1980’s and
1990’s, about the same proportion as in the 1950’s. During
the 1% 0’s and 1970’s, when men of the baby-boom gen
eration entered the labor force, the proportion of growth
attributed to women dropped despite rapid increases in their
participation rates. With the young men of the baby-boom
generation now in the labor force, the share of labor force
growth attributed to women will be greater over the next
decade.
The black and other group, should account for slightly
more than 21 percent of the additions to the labor force
during the 1982-90 period, increasing to nearly 28 percent
in the 1990-95 period. Since 1960, this group’s proportion
of overall growth has been growing despite the continuing
drop in participation by black men. The black labor force
is projected to grow at almost twice the white rate, reflecting
the younger age structure of the black population.
The two groups just discussed overlap. White women and
black and other men and women together will account for
72.4 percent of the 1982-90 labor force growth, and 75.8
percent of the 1990-95 growth. These two groups accounted
for only 66.8 percent of the 1970-82 labor force growth.
Economic dependency. Around 1986, more of the popula
tion should be in the labor force than not in the labor force.
The economic dependency ratio, the number of persons not
in the labor force divided by those in the labor force, was
high in the 1960’s, but declined sharply through the 1970’s
as the baby-boom generation and women entered the labor
force in large numbers. During the 1980’s and 1990’s, the
ratio should continue to decline, but at a considerably more
moderate pace, reflecting only the continued increases in
participation rates for women.
The numerator of the economic dependency ratio can be
disaggregated into all persons who are (1) under age 16,
(2) between ages 16 and 64, and (3) age 65 and over. The
denominator of the ratio in each instance is the total labor
force. The following tabulation shows the economic de
pendency ratio for 1960 to 1982 and projected for 1990 and
1995 for these age groups.
Total population ..
Under age 16 ........
Age 16 to 64 ........
Age 65 and over ..
1960
1970
1982
1990
1995
150.4
81.45
50.2
18.7
138.5
72.1
46.8
19.6
106.5
48.9
36.0
21.6
96.4
45.2
28.4
22.5
94.1
45.2
26.0
22.9
The drop (from 50 to 36 persons per hundred workers) in
the ratio attributed to the 16- to 64-year-olds reflects the
steady entry of women into the work force. The economic
dependency ratio for persons under age 16 has declined over
the 1960 to 1980 period, as the baby-boom generation and
women entered the labor market. During the next decade,
the ratio should be unchanged despite the “ echo” of the
baby boom, that is, the increase in the population attributed
to the children of the baby-boom generation. The ratio for
older workers is expected to rise slightly over the next de
cade, and should continue to rise into the middle of the next
century; currently, their ratio is the lowest of the three groups.
These projected economic dependency ratios have several
implications. There will be fewer children per labor force
participant in the future, hence providing for primary and
secondary education should be less of a burden. On the
other hand, there will be more older persons not in the labor
force per labor force participant, therefore, providing for
retirement and the care of older workers should be slightly
more of a burden.
Alternative assumptions
The middle scenario just discussed reflects underlying
assumptions and could be significantly affected by changes
in these assumptions, b l s developed alternative projections
to examine the range of outcomes attached to any projection.
Two sets of alternative projections were developed for the
current projection: demographic alternatives and economic
alternatives. The following tabulations show the size of the
civilian labor force during 1970, 1980, and 1982
Civilian labor force (in millions)
Total ..............
1970
1980
1982
82.8
106.9
110.2
and the projected size under each scenario for 1990 and
1995:
Civilian labor force (in millions)
1990
High demographic ..
High economic ........
Middle .............................
Low e c o n o m ic ..........
Low demographic . . .
131.3
125.3 to 125.4
125.0
123.7 to 124.9
120.3
1995
141.0
131.9 to 132.8
131.4
130.0 to 131.0
125.1
Demographic alternatives. One assumption in the middle
scenario is that the growth in participation rates of women
ages 20 to 44 will accelerate in the near term (that is, recover
from the effects of the 1980 and 1981-82 recessions) before
tapering off. If the rate of female labor force participation
continues to accelerate through the late 1980’s (rather than
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only through the mid-1980’s) the 1995 participation rate and
labor force for these women would be considerably higher
than in the middle scenario, about 9.6 million more persons,
or 7.3 percent. (See table 3.)
On the other hand, it is possible that the participation
rates for women ages 20 to 44 will not accelerate and instead
will continue the modest upward trend shown during the
1979_82 period. If this occurs, there would be 6.3 million
fewer persons (4.8 percent) in the 1995 labor force.
The two differences between the low, middle, and high
assumptions concerning female participation rates, are sub
stantial. The high scenario reflects female participation rates
nearly converging to the higher male participation rates.
The low scenario reflects a sharp deceleration from the trends
of the 1970’s. Over the 1979-82 period, the growth of
female rates slowed, possibly in response to the 1980 and
1981-82 recessions. However, it might also reflect a change
in the long-run trend. The low scenario, in essence, assumes
that the recent trends reflect new secular trends for women.
The low-growth path assumes a more modest growth
which is not a reversal of the upward growth in female
participation rates or shifts in marital status. For example,
regardless of which scenario is used, women should account
for 65 to 66 percent of increases in the labor force. This
stability occurs because increases in female participation
will be the greatest source of labor force growth over the
next decade.
A second demographic assumption in the middle scenario
concerns the relative trends in black-white participation.
Over the past two decades, the rates for black and white
men have been diverging. (The rates for black and white
women, on the other hand, appear to have converged, if
not crossed.) The low and middle scenarios assume these
respective trends will continue. The high scenario assumes
that the rates for black and white men will converge to the
higher white male rates. In the low scenario, black and other
minorities account for 25.8 percent of the increase in the
labor force over the 1982-95 period; in the high scenario,
23.9 percent; and in the middle scenario, 23.3 percent.
Economic alternatives. Labor force projections are only one
segment of the b l s projections program. The program in
cludes gross national product projections, in total and by
major demand and income components; industry output and
employment projections; and occupational requirements
projections. To emphasize the uncertainty of these varied
projections, b l s traditionally develops several scenarios which
cover a number of alternative assumptions yielding a rea
sonably broad span of employment and gross national prod
uct level. The alternative projections of the economy as a
whole use different assumptions for fiscal policy, produc
tivity growth, the unemployment rate, and the price level.
At issue in these alternatives is the relationship between
earnings and unemployment rates and labor force trends.
Would alternative economic trends imply substantially or
7
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • The 1995 Labor Force
modestly different labor force trends? According to the mod
els, modest changes in the unemployment rate for all work
ers and in real earnings of workers lead to relatively small
changes in the total labor force. (See table 4.)
Alternative projections of labor force trends have been
made with two econometric models. One, labeled the mar
ital status model, focuses on the behavior of detailed labor
force trends.6 The second model, labeled the macro labor
force model, focuses solely on total labor force trends in
the context of a broader economic m odel.7 The methodology
for these economic scenarios is substantially different from
that used in other b l s labor force projections. The assump
tions here are based on econometric models, while the other
alternatives were based on a demographic methodology.
The marital status model relates participation rates for 16
age, sex, and marital status groups to real earnings of full
time workers by sex, and the overall unemployment rate.
The model was estimated with Standard Metropolitan Sta
tistical Area data for 34 cities during the 1973—80 period.
The data are constructed from the micro files of the Bureau
of the Census’ Current Population Survey. The following
tabulation shows the unemployment rate and annual earn
ings data used in the model.
Table 3.
Unemployment rate:
All workers
High ..........................
Middle ......................
Low ..........................
Real annual earnings
(1972 dollars):
Men
High ..........................
Middle ......................
Low ..........................
Women
High ..........................
Middle ......................
Low ..........................
1982
1990
1995
9.7
9.7
9.7
5.4
6.3
6.5
5.2
6.0
6.8
$7,497
7,497
7.497
$8,698
8,905
8.941
$9,074
9.804
10,148
4,441
4,441
4,441
5,152
5,275
5,296
5,375
5.807
6.011
Developing the alternative scenarios with the marital sta
tus model required two steps. First, a middle scenario of
labor force growth was developed for the 16 groups. This
middle scenario for the 16 marital status groups was con
strained to replicate the middle scenario described earlier.
It was developed as in previous projections— extrapolating
historical trends. Second, the differences in the two ex
planatory variables among scenarios were multiplied by the
P rojections of the civilian labor force in 1995, by alternative dem ographic scenarios
Labor force (in thousands)
Participation rate
Labor group
High
scenario
Middle
scenario
Low
scenario
High
scenario
Total, age 16 and over .........................................
140,973
131,387
125,058
72.7
67.8
64.5
Men................................................................
16 to 24 ......................................................
25 to 54 ......................................................
55 and over ..................................................
Women ............................................................
16 to 24 ......................................................
25 to 54 ......................................................
55 and over ...........................................
73,005
11,321
52,545
9,139
67,968
11,155
49,525
7,288
69,970
10,573
51,358
8,039
61,417
10,557
44,852
6,008
67,541
10,013
50,130
7,398
57,517
9,792
41,964
5,761
79.4
79.8
95.5
40.1
66.7
75.7
86.9
24.2
76.1
74.5
93.4
35.3
60.3
71.6
78.7
19.9
73.5
70.6
91.2
32.5
56.5
66.4
73.6
19.1
White ................................................................
Men................................................................
16 to 24 ......................................................
25 to 54 ......................................................
55 and over .................................................
Women ............................................................
16 to 24 ......................................................
25 to 54 ......................................................
55 and over .............................................
119,560
62,451
9,463
44,815
8,173
57,109
9,330
41,384
6,395
112,393
60,757
9,271
44,232
7,254
51,636
9,025
37,433
5,178
107,170
58,839
8,755
43,406
6,678
48,331
8,316
35,097
4,918
72.5
79.2
80.8
95.7
40.2
66.4
77.9
87.0
24.1
68.1
77.0
79.1
94.5
35.6
60.0
75.4
78.7
19.5
65.0
74.6
74.7
92.7
32.8
56.2
69.5
73.8
18.6
Black and other....................................................
Men........................................................
16 to 24 ...............................................
25 to 54 ...............................................
55 and over ...........................................
Women .................................................
16 to 24 .........................................
25 to 54 .............................................
55 and over .............................................
21,413
10,554
1,858
7,730
966
10,859
1,825
8,141
893
18,994
9,213
1,302
7,126
785
9,781
1,532
7,419
830
17,889
8,709
1.253
6,725
722
9,182
1,471
6,863
847
74.8
80.0
75.9
94.6
40.3
68.7
65.7
86.8
24.5
65.1
70.2
52.7
87.1
32.8
61.2
55.4
78.7
22.9
61 9
66 7
50.9
82.3
29 9
58 0
53.2
72.9
23.1
Black.................................
Men...............................
16 to 24 .......................................
25 to 54 ...........................................
55 and over .................................
Women .............................
16 to 24 .................................
25 to 54 .....................................
55 and over .................................
16,517
8,125
1,432
5,974
719
8,392
1.407
6,311
674
14,833
7,297
1.055
5,549
583
7,646
1,180
5,805
661
13,984
6,775
984
5,246
549
7,217
1,148
5,413
650
72.5
79.4
73.9
93.4
38.2
67.0
63.8
85.7
23.6
65.6
70.7
54.3
87.1
31.0
61.7
53.8
78.1
22.3
61 7
66.4
50 4
82 2
29 1
57 8
51 8
73 2
22.7
8
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Middle
scenario
Low
scenario
Table 4.
C ivilian labor force by alternative econom ic scenarios, 1982 and projected to 1995
Participation rate
Labor force (in thousands)
1982
High
scenario
Middle
scenario
Low
scenario
130,977
64.0
68.0
67.8
67.6
69,970
4,043
24,635
11,071
13,564
19,446
14,956
4,490
13,807
11,531
2,276
8,039
69,867
4,047
24,619
11,062
13,557
19,401
14,937
4,463
13,784
11,523
2,261
8,017
76.6
56.7
90.8
97.1
85.3
95.3
96.8
89.4
91.2
93.4
80.8
43.8
76.2
62.8
90.5
95.6
86.7
95.5
97.0
90.9
91.4
93.8
81.0
35.5
76.1
62.9
62.9
90.4
95.6
86.6
95.3
96.9
90.2
91.1
93.6
80.3
35.3
75.9
63.0
90.4
95.6
86.6
95.1
96.8
89.6
90.9
93.5
79.8
35.2
61,786
3,777
23,224
11,160
12,064
17,526
11,968
5,557
11,282
7,927
3,356
5,976
61,417
3,761
23,096
11,087
12,009
17,427
11,932
5,495
11,125
7,798
3,327
6,008
61,110
3,749
22,975
11,021
11,954
17,350
11,902
5,448
11,015
7,708
3,307
8,017
52.6
51.4
68.8
61.6
77.7
68.0
64.1
79.0
61.6
57.9
72.3
22.7
60.7
58.5
82.3
80.8
83.6
83.2
81.8
86.5
70.5
68.4
76.0
19.9
60.3
58.3
81.8
80.3
83.2
82.8
81.5
85.6
69.5
67.3
75.3
20.0
60.0
58.1
81.4
79.8
82.9
82.4
81.3
84.8
68.8
66.5
74.9
20.0
132,800
131,387
130,000
64.0
66.9
67.8
67.1
1982
High
scenario
Middle
scenario
Low
scenario
110,204
131,887
131,387
45 to 54 .....................................................
Married ...................................................
Other ........................................................
55 and over .................................................
62,450
4,470
21,385
14,212
12,185
12,781
10,321
2,460
9,784
8,320
1,464
9,019
70,101
4,032
24,647
11,071
13,576
19,497
14,971
4,527
13,847
11,553
2,295
8,076
Women ..........................................................
16 to 19 ......................................................
20 to 34 ......................................................
Married ....................................................
Other ........................................................
35 to 44 ......................................................
Married ...................................................
Other ........................................................
45 to 54 .......... ...........................................
Married ...................................................
Other .......................................................
55 and over .................................................
47,755
4,056
17,128
10,592
10,279
9,651
6,723
2,928
7,105
4,993
2,111
6,073
Macro labor force model:
Total..................................... .........................
110,204
Labor group
Marital status model:
Total..................................................................
16 to 19
20 to 34
...................................
...............................................
35 to 44 .....................................................
respective coefficients; then the products were added to ob
tain the differences from the middle scenario.
For the marital status model, the range between the high
and low scenarios is only 900,000 persons in the total labor
force and .4 percentage points in participation rates. (See
table 4.) The groups most affected by the changes between
the scenarios are married women ages 45 to 54, nonmarried
women ages 35 to 44, married women ages 20 to 34, and
nonmarried men ages 45 to 54 and ages 35 to 44. The finding
that these groups are more sensitive than others to the changes
in economic trends is consistent with the slower trends in
participation rates during the 1979-82 period. The projected
labor force participation rates for these five groups are all
projected to change by between 1.0 and 1.7 percentage
points between the high and low economic scenario.
The macro labor force model relates the labor force par
ticipation rate of all workers to the unemployment rate and'
real wages. As noted, the macro labor force model is part
of a large-scale quarterly macroeconometric model that al
lows for interaction of labor force trends with employment,
labor productivity, and other trends.
For the macro labor force model, the range between the
high and low scenarios is 2.8 million persons and 1.4 per
centage points in the total participation rates. The difference
between the high and low scenarios for the macro labor
force model, when compared to the marital status model,
reflects, in part, the interaction of labor force trends with
economic trends in the context of a macroeconometric model
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and, in part, the structural differences between the two labor
force models.8
A comparison of the low and high economic scenarios
with the middle scenario indicates that changes in economic
assumptions do not result in substantial changes in labor
force projections.
The most important finding across the four economic
scenarios is that projections with two strikingly different
labor force models yield small differences between the scen
arios. By contrast, the difference between the high and low
demographic scenarios is 15.9 million in 1995. Thus, the
key factors in the size of the future labor force are demo
graphic in nature.
Revisions reflect 1980 census
Several factors necessitated updating the projections pub
lished in 1980: revisions in the historical labor force esti
mates, revisions in the projected population (which are used
in determining the size of the future labor force), and avail
ability of labor force participation rates for the 1979-82
period.9 The historical labor force data were revised to in
corporate the 1980 census. The revised population projec
tions reflect incorporation of the 1980 population estimates
and new, higher assumptions about life expectancy and net
migration, and new, lower assumptions about fertility lev
els. These changes resulted in a larger projected population
for 1995, with 8.8 million more persons over age 16. The
new population projection alone would have raised the 1995
9
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • The 1995 Labor Force
labor force projections by 5.3 million persons (after ac
counting for population shifts by age, sex, and race).
Offsetting the population growth is a lower projected change
in labor force participation rates. This reflects the 1979-82
changes in participation which were lower than those of
1962-79. The 1979-82 changes reflect both cyclical factors
and trend factors, such as an increased fertility after years
of steady decline. If the previously projected participation
rates were applied to the new population projections, the
1995 labor force would have been 132.4 million persons,
1 million more than the current projection. The most notable
change in projected participation rates occurred for women
ages 25 to 34, a group for which b l s has consistently un
derprojected participation. The rate for this group was low
ered 2 percentage points in the current projection to 81.7
percent, compared with 83.7 percent in the previous pro
jection. Still, participation for this group is expected to grow
13.7 percentage points over the 1982-95 period, the largest
projected increase for any labor group. Projected partici
pation rates for several groups have been revised upward,
notably for men ages 35 to 54, and women 35 and older.
The following tabulation compares the previous and the
revised projections of the 1995 labor force:
Civilian labor force
(in thousands)..............
Men ........................
Women ...................
White .......................
Black and oth er.......
1980
projection
1983
projection
Difference
127,542
67,611
59,931
109,292
18,250
131,387
69,970
61,417
112,393
18,994
3,845
2,359
1,486
3,101
744
Participation rate .......
Men .......................
Women .................
White .....................
Black and other __
1980
projection
1983
projection
68.6
76.8
61.2
68.8
67.0
67.8
76.1
60.3
68.1
65.7
Difference
- .8
- .7
- .9
- .7
- 1.3
B a s e d o n b l s ’ p r o j e c t i o n s , several significant changes
in labor force trends are expected during the next decade:
• The total labor force will grow more slowly during the
next decade than during the past decade.
• Women will account for a greater proportion of labor
force growth in the decade ahead (nearly two-thirds) than
they did over the past decade;
» Blacks and other minority groups will account for a greater
proportion of overall labor force growth, about one-quarter
during the next decade;
• The younger members of the labor force, ages 16 to 24,
will decline in absolute numbers.
• The number of prime-age members of the labor force,
those ages 25 to 54, will grow faster than the total labor
force, 1.0 percentage point per year faster.
These projections reflect the changing demographic struc
ture of the U.S. population; the aging of the baby-boom
generation and the growth of the black population. These
general conclusions hold for several scenarios concerning
future trends in labor force participation for detailed groups,
although the specific projections differ.
Q
FOOTNOTES■
1These projections replace those in Howard N Fullerton, Jr.. “ The 1995
laborforce: a first look," Monthly Labor Review, December 1980, pp. 1121. For an evaluation o f earlier projections, see Howard N Fullerton, Jr.,
“ How accurate were the 1980 labor force projections?” Monthly Labor
Review , July 1982, pp. 15-21.
2The labor force (civilian labor force and resident Armed Forces) is
projected to be 126,577,000 in 1990 and 133,018,000 in 1995. Of these,
57,415,000 will be women in 1990 and 61,582,000 will be women in
1995. Because there is no age or race detail in the resident Armed Forces
measure of the labor force, this article is based on the civilian labor force.
3 As with other current bls presentations of data by race, this article
presents data for blacks; however, for historical comparison, data are also
presented for the black and other group, which also includes American
Indians, Eskimos, and other minorities.
Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 922 (Bureau of the Census
1982).
6For illustrations of other uses of the marital status model, see James
E. Duggan, “ Labor force participation of older workers” Industrial and
Labor Relations Review, forthcoming; and James E. Duggan. “ Relative
price variability and the labor supply of married persons.” Both papers
are available from the Office of Economic Growth and Employment Pro
jections, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
7 The macro labor force model is the labor force equation in the Chase
Econometric Model. For a description of the model, see Arthur J. Andreassen and others, "Economic outlook for the 1990's; three scenarios
for economic growth.” pp. 11-23, this issue.
4 For a short description of the b l s demographic labor force projection
methodology, see BLS Handbook of Methods, Bulletin 2134-1 (Bureau
of Labor Statistics, 1982), Chapter 18; for a complete description, see BLS
Economic Growth Model System Used for Projections to 1990. Bulletin
2112 (Bureau o f Labor Statistics, 1982), Chapter 2.
8 b l s ’ alternative scenarios of gross national product, industry output
and employment trends and occupational requirements use the macro labor
force model s projections of total labor force. This was done because of
the small differences between the economic scenarios of labor force trends
and because the macro labor force is part of the macroeconometric model
of the economic projections.
5 Among the assumptions of the Census Bureau’s projections of the
population is that the total fertility rate will rise from 1.83 in 1980 to 1.96
in 2000, and then will decrease to 1.90 in 2050; and that life expectancy
will rise from 78.3 in 1981 to 81.3 in 2005 for women, 70.7 to 73.3 for
men. See Projections of the Population of the United States: 1982 to 2050,
9 For a discussion of the revisions in labor force estimates due to the
1980 Census o f the Population, see Kenneth D. Buckley, Jennifer Marks,
and Ronald J. Statt, “ Revisions in the Current Population Survey Begin
ning in January 1982,” Employment and Earnings, February 1982, pp. 7 -
10
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Economic outlook for the 1990’s:
three scenarios for economic growth
Alternative monetary and fiscal assumptions
suggest quite different trends
in GNP and employment through 1995;
in all versions, growth tapers after 1988, reflecting
slower rates o f population and labor force increase
A
rthur
and
J.
A n d r ea ssen , N orm an
C.
Sa u n d er s,
B etty W . S u
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has prepared trend projec
tions of growth in aggregate and industry demand for the
1982-95 period, updating prior projections to 1990 and
extending the analysis to 1995.1 The projections are part of
a Bureau program of studies aimed at analyzing mediumterm economic growth and the implications for the structure
of employment by industry and occupation. The new esti
mates consist of a moderate-growth case, and high-growth
and low-growth alternatives, which examine the effects of
alternate policies on U.S. economic growth, distribution of
demand, and employment.
It should be noted that none of the three projections should
be favored as the most likely. The intent in preparing them
was not to forecast future economic performance but, rather,
to examine the implications of a reasonable range of demand
growth over the projection period. The projections represent
only three of many possible responses of the economy to
differing fiscal and monetary stimulae. A different perspec
tive on the inner workings of the U.S. aggregate economy
could easily lead one to arrive at completely different results.
For this reason, the high-growth and low-growth alternatives
should not be viewed as the “ good” forecast and the “ bad”
forecast, but rather as vehicles for generating a reasonable
The authors are economists in the Office of Economic Growth and Em
ployment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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spread in gross national product ( g n p ) and employment growth
to 1995.
By 1995, real g n p is projected to range between $2.1
and $2.3 trillion, with total employment between 123.6 and
134.1 million jobs. In all three versions, job and production
growth tapers during the latter part of the period, primarily
in response to slower projected rates of growth of the pop
ulation and labor force.2 Following are historical and pro
jected rates of growth for real g n p , real disposable income,
and employment:
D is p o s a b le
Historical:
1955-68
1968-73
1973-77
1977-82
............ ..
............ ..
............ ..
............
Low growth:
1982-90 ............ ..
1990-95 ............ ..
GNP
in c o m e
E m p lo y m e n t
3.7
3.5
3.9
4.3
1.5
1.7
2.2
2.2
1.6
1.6
2.4
1.6
2.8
2.4
2.7
1.6
2.7
1.4
Moderate growth:
1982-90 ............ ..
1990-95 ............ ..
3.2
2.5
2.8
1.8
2.6
1.5
High growth:
1982-90 ............ ..
1990-95 ............ ..
3.8
2.5
3.2
2.7
2.3
1.7
11
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • Economic Outlook For The 1990’s
*
In terms of the real rate of growth, the low-trend projections
are comparable to the 1973-82 experience, and the hightrend projection corresponds more to that of the 1960’s.
Following is a detailed discussion of the assumptions and
results of the moderate-growth alternative, both in terms of
aggregate economic activity and industry demand patterns.
A summary of the low-trend and high-trend results is in
cluded. Other articles in this issue examine the b l s projec
tions of labor force, industry output and employment, and
occupational demand.
Moderate growth assumptions
To develop the moderate-growth projections, assump
tions were made concerning demographics, fiscal and mon
etary policy, foreign economic conditions, energy, and
miscellaneous item s.3 Those variables having the largest
impact on the projections are discussed below. (Refer to the
box on pages 12-13 for a discussion of the model used to
develop the aggregate projections.)
Demographic. The middle-growth projections of U.S. pop
ulation, developed by the Census Bureau, were chosen for
the moderate-growth scenario. The population age 16 and
over is projected to increase by 21.6 million between 1982
and 1995, an average annual rate of growth of 0.9 percent.
As in prior projections, the population rate of growth slows
over the projection horizon, dropping from 1.1 percent an
nually between 1982 and 1988 to 0.8 percent each year
between 1988 and 1995.
The civilian labor force grows somewhat more rapidly
during the projection period, reflecting generally increasing
participation rates and the shift of persons into age categories
with traditionally higher labor force participation. The ci-
BLS projections procedures
The Bureau of Labor Statistics prepares projections on a 2year cycle, using the Economic Growth Model System. This
system is composed of a group of separate but not unrelated
processes. Projections are produced in the following areas: (1) labor
force; (2) aggregate economic performance; (3) industry final
demand and total industry production; (4) industry employment
levels; and (5) occupational employment by industry. Each block
of the projections depends upon inputs from an earlier stage and
feeds logically into the next.
The la b o r f o r c e p r o je c tio n s use Bureau of the Census popu
lation projections by age, sex, and race, based on trends in birth
rates, death rates, and net migration. With the population pro
jections in hand, b l s projects labor force participation rates—
the percent of each group in the population who will be working
or seeking work— for 64 age, sex, and race groups. The labor
force participation rate projection for each group is developed
by: (a) analyzing past rates of growth over the 1962-81 period
or for selected subperiods; (b) selecting the rate for a period
deemed most appropriate for each group; and (c) modifying that
rate if past trends are judged not likely to continue throughout
the entire projection period. The levels of anticipated labor force
are then calculated by applying the projected participation rates
to the Bureau of the Census population projections.
The a g g r e g a te e c o n o m ic p r o je c tio n s o r g r o s s n a tio n a l p r o d
u c t, in total and by major demand and income category, use the
b l s labor force and Census population projections as inputs.
Consistent economic scenarios are developed to provide aggre
gate controls for the various categories of demand and employ
ment. These scenarios are selected to encompass a band around
likely growth of the economy in the future. Later stages of the
projection process develop industry-level projections consistent
with these aggregate data.
The Bureau’s aggregate economic projections have, in the
past, been prepared with a modified version of the Thurow econo
metric model of the U.S. economy. Following the last round of
projections, it was determined that the b l s macro model was
inadequate for further projections studies without major respe
12
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cification and expansion. After studying the problem, the deci
sion was made to look to the private sector for a macro model
that would satisfy the needs of Bureau economists and that would,
at the same time, remove the burden of periodic data base main
tenance and model reestimation from the Bureau staff. A model
of the size and complexity deemed necessary for an effective
evaluation of U.S. economic growth potential had required that
a significant proportion o f staff time be allocated to such routine
maintenance. For this reason and because of staff and other re
source limitations, a competitive procurement process was ini
tiated in January 1982 and a contract was awarded to Chase
Econometrics Associates, Inc., in October 1982. Under the terms
of this agreement, the Bureau now uses the Chase macro model
to develop its projections.
The Chase model is a quarterly model of the U.S. economy,
and is composed of 312 behavioral equations and 275 identities,
thus determining 587 endogenous variables. In addition, the model
contains 110 exogenous variables. The model can be conve
niently decomposed into 13 sectors: (1) consumption, (2) business
fixed investment, (3) residential investment, (4) change in busi
ness inventories, (5) foreign trade, (6 ) Federal government,
(7) State and local government, ( 8 ) employment and hours,
(9) financial, (10) income, (11) wages and prices, (12) industrial
production, and (13) energy.
Assumptions are specified for the 110 exogenous variables.
The model is simulated and the results are analyzed for consis
tency and reasonableness. Modifications to the exogenous var
iables and to the behavioral relationships are incorporated into
the model until a reasonable set of results has been obtained.
For the in d u s tr y o u tp u t p r o j e c t io n s , the U.S. economy is dis
aggregated to 156 producing sectors, an exhaustive grouping
which combines both the public and private sectors. The frame
work for this procedure is an input-output model that is prepared
for a base period by the Bureau o f Economic Analysis of the
U.S. Department of Commerce. The first step at the industry
level is to disaggregate the g n p estimate from the aggregate
projections to a set of demands by industry. This projected in-
vilian labor force is projected to attain a level of 131.4
million by 1995, an increase of just under 20 million from
1982. This represents average annual growth of 1.6 percent,
1982-88, and 1.0 percent between 1988 and 1995. The
moderate-growth alternative uses the medium-growth pro
jection of the civilian labor force discussed on pages 3-10
of this issue. The labor force projections in the low-trend
and high-trend versions were generated by the macro model
described on page 9.
Federal receipts and expenditures. General fiscal restraint
throughout the remainder of this decade is the basic char
acteristic of the moderate-growth government expenditure
and tax policies. Federal defense purchases of goods and
services are assumed to increase at a real rate of 4.1 percent
each year between 1982 and 1986. Thereafter, growth is
assumed to drop to the 0.5- to 1.0-percent range to 1995.
dustry demand, in conjunction with a projected input-output ta
ble, is used to calculate total industrial production. The projected
changes in input-output coefficients in the input-output model
capture— among other factors— expected changes in technology.
Finally, the employments necessary to produce those levels of
output are estimated through use of projected industry produc
tivity.
Aggregate demand projections are available from the macro
model for 15 categories of consumption, 8 types of investment,
15 end-use categories of foreign trade, and 3 categories of gov
ernment spending. Where possible, a further disaggregation of
the control values is undertaken: Purchases of producers’ durable
equipment is divided into 23 types of capital equipment. Gov
ernment spending is grouped into 1 2 categories.
To allow for shifts in the composition of aggregate demand
and in the industrial makeup of a given demand category, “ bridge
tables’’ are projected. The bridge table is a set of percent dis
tributions for each given demand category, such as one of the
consumption groups or investment, among each of the 156 in
dustries in the b l s input-output model.
The projection of the input-output table accounts for the changes
in the input pattern for each industry. In general, two types of
changes are made: (a) those made to the inputs of a specific
industry after an industry study (as for the changes in inputs in
the aluminum industry); and, (b) those made to the inputs of all
industries for a specific commodity (as for increased use of busi
ness services across a wide spectrum of industries). Output re
quirements by industry are the result of multiplying the projected
input-output table by projected changes in level and distribution
of final demand.
The projected changes in industry output are important factors
determining the p r o je c tio n s o f in d u s tr y e m p lo y m e n t. However,
converting output projections into employment estimates requires
productivity-by-industry projections and measures of changes in
average hours by industry. This is accomplished using a regres
sion model with an equation for each industry that estimates
worker-hours as a function of the following variables: ( 1 ) the
industry’s output, (2) capacity utilization, (3) the relative price
of labor, and (4) a technology variable as approximated by the
output/capital ratio. Worker-hours are then converted into jobs
by dividing by average annual hours, which are projected using
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Nondefense purchases of goods and services in real terms
are expected to decline in the 1983-87 period, reaching
$35.8 billion in 1987, $1.8 billion below the 1982 level.
This reflects some employment declines, as well as general
cutbacks in operating funds for many programs. Nondefense
purchases are then assumed to grow, in real terms, by about
0.5 to 1.0 percent each year to 1990, and to accelerate
somewhat to the 2.5- to 3.0-percent range during the first
half of the next decade.
Social security benefit payments are expected to grow in
nominal terms at an annual rate of 7.2 percent in the 1982—
88 period, and by 7.1 percent each year between 1988 and
1995. No real benefit increases are assumed through 1988.
The growth in social security payments is generated by
inflation and by expanding client population only. After
1988, some resumption of real benefit growth is assumed,
on the order of 0.5 percent to 1 percent annually.
time trends. The sum of employment by industry is controlled
to total employment as estimated in the macro model. Several
iterations are usually necessary for a reasonable balance to be
achieved.
Projections of employment for the 156 sectors in the Economic
Growth Model are disaggregated to 372 industries corresponding
to the 3-digit Standard Industrial Classification (sic). This is done
to match the industry mix of the industry-occupation matrix de
scribed later. The disaggregation is accomplished via a timeseries regression model. The disaggregated 3-digit sic industry
employment projections are reviewed in light of a broad range
o f economic information. When the industry projections are con
sidered final, they are used as inputs to the process o f projecting
occupational employment.
One of the main resources in making o c c u p a tio n a l e m p lo y m e n t
p r o j e c t io n s is the industry-occupation matrix. This matrix is pro
duced from data collected by State employment agencies and
brought together by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to produce
national estimates. The data are collected from employers on a
3-year cycle— manufacturing one year, nonmanufacturing the
next year, and the balance of nonmanufacturing (trade, trans
portation, communications, and utilities) the final year. The data
from the 3-year cycle are put on the same employment basis to
form annual average estimates for occupational employment in
each of the 3-digit sic industries. The matrix contains over 1,500
detailed occupations, although most industries do not have em
ployment in many of these occupations.
The major occupational cells of the industry-occupation matrix
for the base year are reviewed and adjustments are made to the
cells in the projected matrix to account for changes expected to
take place in the industries because of technological change,
product mix shifts, and other factors. The changes introduced
into the input-output model for expected technological change
may also change the staffing patterns in industries using the new
technology. (For example, one would expect greater general
employment of computer specialists as computer technology spreads
across industries.) The projected industry employment data are
applied to the projected industry occupational employment pat
terns and the new cell employment is aggregated across all in
dustries to yield total occupational employment for the projected
year.
13
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • Economic Outlook For The 1990’s
Medicare payments, on the other hand, are expected to
grow at a 10.1-percent nominal rate over the 1982-88 pe
riod, reflecting client population growth, higher-than-average medical care cost inflation, and some real benefit
increases, on the order of about 1 percent annually. After
1988, the medicare rate of growth drops to 8 percent an
nually as inflation continues to moderate.
Unemployment insurance benefits decline sharply through
1990 as the economy recovers from the 1982 recession and
the number of unemployed drops. Some slight growth is
apparent after 1990 as the unemployment rate stabilizes.
Other transfer payments, including Federal retirement pro
grams and veterans’ benefits, are expected to increase at a
nominal rate of 8.5 percent annually between 1982 and
1988, and at 7.9 percent during the 1988-95 period. Finally,
grants to State and local governments are assumed to grow
only with inflation during the entire period.
On the revenue side of the Federal government books,
projected personal tax rates reflect currently mandated tax
cuts and the indexation of personal taxes for the remainder
of the period. Corporate profits taxes are assumed to stabilize
at about 26 percent of profits for the entire projection period.
Indirect business taxes are expected to increase annually by
about 5.8 percent, while social insurance contributions are
governed by the currently mandated tax rates and income
base determination methods.
The net effect of these policies is a Federal budget deficit
( n i p a basis) that declines steadily from $180 billion in 1983
to about $70 billion by 1990, and then remains at roughly
that level for the remainder of the projection period.
The assumed growth rates for industrial production appear
high from a historical perspective. The table is deceptive,
however, because the selected historical years are repre
sentative of peak-to-peak periods in this country. The world
economy tends to lag the U.S. business cycle and, as a
result, the historical growth rates presented above are not
truly representative of long-term trend growth patterns. Gen
erally, world industrial production has tended to increase at
a 2.5- to 3.5-percent rate during trend growth periods.
Monetary policy. In the financial sector, 10 interest rates
Energy. Domestic oil production, currently running at about
are derived, with the Federal funds rate providing the key
to the overall term structure of rates. The major assumption
affecting the determination of the Federal funds rate is the
rate of growth of the nonborrowed monetary base, excluding
currency. It is assumed that this variable will grow at a rate
close to 10 percent during 1983, dropping to about 7 percent
during the 1984-87 period, and then to the 5.5- to 6-percent
range for the remainder of the projection period. This reflects
an assumed willingness on the part of the Federal Reserve
Board to loosen up somewhat on monetary controls as the
economy recovers from the 1982 recession.
Also affecting the financial sector is the assumption con
cerning the rate of growth of money-market related mutual
funds. This variable affects the distribution of the money
stock between the aggregate money supply measures M 1
and M2. Money-market funds are expected to increase at a
strong pace during the mid-1980’s (about 12 to 15 percent
annually), but this will taper in the late 1980’s and early
1990’s to about a 10-percent average rate of growth.
10 million barrels per day ( m b p d ), is assumed to decline to
9.5 m b p d by 1987 and to remain at that level thereafter.
Petroleum imports, on the other hand, are expected to in
crease steadily from 5.1 m b p d in 1982 to 7.8 m b p d in 1990
and 8 m b p d in 1995. The price of imported oil is assumed
to rise from the 1983 price of $28 per barrel to $41 in 1990
and to $52 by 1995. This rise is consistent with overall
inflation but does not reflect any real increase in the barrel
price of imported crude oil.
Affecting transportation-related demand for petroleum are
assumptions concerning the average miles-per-gallon of new
domestically produced autos, and the ratio of imports to
domestic autos. Mileage figures are assumed to improve
from the 1982 level of 26.7 mpg to 37.8 by 1990 and 41.7
by 1995. After declining to a more normal share of 24
percent in 1983, imported autos are expected to capture
more of the U.S. auto market, accounting for 30 percent of
domestic sales by 1990. The share is assumed to stabilize
through 1995 at that level.
Foreign economic conditions. Exports of domestically pro
Implications of moderate growth
duced goods and services are influenced primarily by in
ternational financial markets and by the economic condition
Real g n p is projected to increase at an average annual
rate of 3.2 percent over the 1982-90 period, reflecting re-
14
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of our major trading partners. The following table sum
marizes the assumed annual percentage rates of growth of
the variables in the macro model that reflect these consid
erations:
A vera g e
I n d u s tr ia l
W h o le s a le
v a lu e
p r o d u c tio n ,
p r i c e in d e x .
o f th e
w o r ld
r e s t- o f - w o r ld
U. S. d o lla r 4
Historical:
1968-73 ........
1973-77 ........
1977-82 ........
0.9
0.7
Low growth:
1982-90 ........
1990-95 ........
3.0
2.9
8. 8
1.6
7.9
0.0
Moderate growth:
1982-90 ........
1990-95 ........
3.2
3.1
8.3
6.9
2.1
High growth:
1982-90 ........
1990-95 ........
3.3
3.4
8.5
7.3
2.2
—
—
11.8
10.0
- 3 .0
2.4
3.3
1.3
1.5
covery from the 1982 recession. After 1990, g n p growth
moderates somewhat to an annual rate of 2.5 percent be
tween 1990 and 1995 (table 1). This assumes a return to
the long-term trend growth path following the recovery and
the continuing slowdown in the rate of growth of the civilian
labor force. Following is a summary of the projection results
for each major sector of the economy.
Prices. Projections for price change are truly optimistic in
the moderate-growth scenario— at least compared to the
more recent experience:
A n n u a l c h a n g e , in p e r c e n t
G ro ss
P erso n a l
c o n s u m p tio n
d o m e s tic
d e f la to r
e x p e n d itu r e s
d e f la to r
in v e s tm e n t
d e f la to r
2.4
5.1
7.3
2.1
4.6
7.1
8.1
8.1
1.7
5.1
9.4
7.1
5.4
3.3
5.2
3.6
5.8
2.7
GNP
Historical:
1955-68 ........
1968-73 ........
1973-77 ........
1977-82 ........
Moderate growth:
1982-90 ........
1990-95 ........
p r i v a te
The moderation in inflation expectations is based on the
relatively modest rate of recovery projected from the 1982
recession. Demand growth accelerates at a pace readily
matched by production capacity, thus averting much of the
demand pressure on prices apparent during recoveries from
the 1969-70 and 1973-75 recessions. The 1981-82 reces
sion also significantly dampened wage rate growth, a major
impetus to renewed inflation during earlier recoveries.
Employment and productivity. Civilian household employ
ment is projected to increase by just over 24 million jobs
between 1982 and 1995, as the unemployment rate declines
from 9.7 percent in 1982 to 6.3 percent in 1990 and to 6.0
percent in 1995. (See table 2.) This represents average an
nual growth in employment of 2 percent between 1982 and
1990 and of 1.1 percent between 1990 and 1995. There are
6.5 million new jobs in the goods-producing sector, and
17.3 million in the private service-producing industries.
For the private nonfarm sector, the long-term average
annual rate of productivity growth was 2.6 percent between
1955 and 1968. Between 1968 and 1973, this rate dropped
to 2.1 percent annually and even further, to 0.2 percent,
during the 1973-82 period. The slowdown in productivity
growth over the past decade has been attributed to many
factors, including the influx of new workers into the labor
force; slowing in capital accumulation per worker; emphasis
on nonproductive types of investment, such as pollution
control investment; and the remarkable increase in energy
prices since 1973.
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Over the coming decade, many of the factors that con-'
tributed to the productivity slowdown are expected to im
prove. As a result, the projections for productivity are quite
optimistic when compared to more recent experience. Pro
ductivity in the private nonfarm sector is expected to in
crease at a rate of 1.7 percent annually between 1982 and
1990 and by 1.4 percent each year during the 1990-95
period. Increases in manufacturing labor productivity are
expected to average 2.2 percent annually over the entire
period.
Developments related to employment and labor produc
tivity are discussed by Valerie Personick elsewhere in this
issue.
Personal consumption. Consumer spending is the largest
component of g n p . In 1968, personal consumption expen
ditures ( p c e ) accounted for 60.0 percent of real g n p . The
share increased to 63.2 percent in 1981 and to 65.3 percent
in 1982. It should be noted that personal consumption ex
penditures accounted for a large proportion of g n p in 1982
because of the rapid relative increase in the purchase of
services during a recessionary period. After returning to a
more normal share of g n p after 1983, consumer expendi
tures are still expected to show a long-term upward trend,
reaching 65.2 percent of g n p in 1995. The increase is due
primarily to relatively higher disposable income and a slightly
lower savings rate, as well as to the smaller share of g n p
accounted for by government expenditures. Table 3 details
the projections of 15 major categories of consumer spend
ing.
Because of price effects, new technology, the shifting
population mix, and new household formation, consumers’
behavior will exhibit some changes over the next decade.
Purchases of consumer durables are projected to grow very
strongly over the period— 5.1-percent average annual growth
from 1982 to 1990 and 2.9 percent each year, 1990-95.
All categories of durables are expected to increase strongly
in the early period of the projections, but the largest growth
is attributable to motor vehicles and to household appli
ances. Generally speaking, durables purchases react quite
sharply to increasing inflation and to swings in the business
cycle because such purchases are easily put off until “ better
tim es.” Two major reasons for the strong durables growth
over the projection period are the greatly improved inflation
situation and the lack of business-cycle swings built into
the projection methods.
Purchases of motor vehicles and parts dropped dramati
cally during the 1982 recession. Sales of new motor vehicles
were down 18 percent to 11.4 million units in 1980 and
dipped to 10.4 million units in 1982, the worst slump in 20
years. The drop in new-car sales was largely accounted for
by domestic autos, as imports continued to increase their
share of the market during the 1982 recession.
With cut-rate financing luring buyers, sales rebounded
sharply in the final months of 1982. Demand for motor
15
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • Economic Outlook For The 1990’s
Table 1.
Gross national product, 1968, 1973, 1977, 1982, and projected to 1990 and 1995
[Billions of 1972 dollars]
Item
1968
1973
1977
1982
1990
High
Moderate
1995
Low
High
Moderate
Low
Gross national product.............................
$1.058.1
$1,255.0
$1,369.7
$1.485.4
$2,004.2
$1,915.5
$1,857.9
$2,264.6
$2,166.9
$2,126.7
Personal consumption .............................
Durables ...........................................
Nondurables.......................................
Services ...........................................
634.4
88.3
270.5
275.6
768.5
121.3
308.0
339.2
864.3
138.0
333.4
393.0
970.2
139.8
364.2
466.2
1,296.0
236.0
447.2
612.8
1.240.2
208.8
436.2
595.2
1,196.8
190.1
423.7
583.0
1,491.4
277.4
481.2
732.9
1,412.4
240.4
468.0
704.0
1,349.1
223.8
438.4
686.9
Gross private investment .........................
Equipment.........................................
Structures .........................................
Residential.........................................
Inventory change...............................
161.6
66.8
42.8
43.1
9.0
217.5
90.7
47.4
62.3
17.2
214.2
99.9
40.4
60.7
13.3
194.5
112.7
53.4
37.8
-9.4
342.1
166.2
62 8
97.8
15.3
305.7
149.1
61.5
80.5
14.6
250.1
132.4
45.0
63.6
9.0
405.0
202.8
76.9
113.1
12.2
337.2
177.2
70.1
78.1
11.9
285.7
159.6
44 6
69 6
11.9
Net exports.........................................
Exports ...........................................
Imports.........................................
1.9
61.2
59.3
15.5
97.3
81.8
22.0
112.9
90.9
28.9
147.3
118.4
34.1
206.7
172.6
48.8
202.3
153.5
83.0
206.5 ,
123.5
22.8
261.7
238.9
85.9
260.0
174.1
148.4
267 9
119.4
Government...............................
Federal .............................................
State and local ...................................
260.2
128.2
132.0
253.5
95.9
157.6
269.2
100.5
168.8
291.8
116.6
175.2
332.0
136.8
195.2
320.9
132.4
188.5
327.9
144.3
183.6
345.4
144.6
200.7
331.4
139.2
192.2
343 5
157 0
186.5
Gross national product.......................
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Personal consumption...........................
Durables ...........................................
Nondurables...................................
Services .................................
60.0
8.3
25.6
26.0
61.2
9.7
24.5
27.0
63.1
10.1
24.3
28.7
65.3
9.4
24.5
31.4
64.7
11.8
22.3
30.6
64.7
10.9
22.8
31.1
64.4
10.2
22.8
31.4
65.9
12.2
21.2
32.4
65 2
11 1
21 6
32.5
63 4
10 5
20 6
32.3
Gross private investment ..............
Equipment...........................
Structures .....................................
Residential...........................
Inventory change.........................
15.3
6.3
4.0
4.1
0.9
17.3
7.2
3.8
5.0
1.4
15.6
7.3
2.9
4.4
1.0
13.1
7.6
3.6
2.5
-0.6
17.1
8.3
3.1
4.9
.8
16.0
7.8
3.2
4.2
.8
13.5
7.1
2.4
34
.5
17.9
90
33
50
.5
15 6
8?
3?
3 fi
.5
13 4
75
21
33
.6
Net exports ...........................
Exports.................................
Imports.....................................
.2
5.8
5.6
1.2
7.8
6.5
1.6
8.2
6.6
1.9
9.9
8.0
1.7
10.3
8.6
2.5
10.6
8.0
4.5
11.1
6.6
10
11.6
10.5
40
12 0
8.0
70
1? 6
5.6
Government.................................
Federal ....................
State and local .......................
24.6
12.1
12.5
20.2
7.6
12.6
19.7
7.3
12.3
19.6
7.8
11.8
16.6
6.8
9.7
16.8
6.9
9.8
17.6
7.8
9.9
15.3
64
8.9
15 3
64
8^9
16 ?
74
8'8
Average annual rate of change (In percent)
High
Moderate
1982-90
1990-95
1982-90
1990-95
1982-95
1982-90
1990-95
Percent distribution
68-73
1973-77
1977-82
Low
Gross national product
3.5
2.2
1.6
3.8
2.5
3.2
2.5
3.0
2.8
2.7
Personal consumption
Durables ............
Nondurables ........
Services..............
3.9
6.5
2.6
4.2
3.0
3.3
2.1
3.7
2.3
0.3
1.8
3.5
3.7
6.8
2.6
3.5
2.8
3.3
1.5
3.6
3.1
5.1
2.3
3.1
2.6
2.9
1.4
3.4
2.9
4.3
1.9
3.2
2.7
39
19
2.8
24
33
07
3.3
Gross private investment
Equipment ............
Structures ............
Residential ............
6.1
6.3
2.1
7.6
-0.4
2.4
-3.9
-0.6
-1.9
2.4
5.7
-9.0
7.3
5.0
2.1
12.6
3.4
4.1
4.1
2.9
5.8
3.6
1.8
9.9
2.0
3.5
2.7
-0.6
4.3
3.5
2.1
5.7
32
20
-2 1
7.4
2J
33
Exports
Imports
9.7
6.6
3.8
2.7
5.5
5.4
4.3
4.8
4.8
6.7
4.1
3.3
5.2
2.6
4.5
3.0
43
0.5
5.3
-0.7
-0.5
1.5
1.6
1.6
-5.6
1.2
3.0
2.0
3.6
1.7
0.8
1.4
Historical data, Bureau of Economic Analysis: projected data, Bureau of Labor Statistics
0.8
1.1
0.6
1.2
1.6
0.9
0.7
1.0
0.4
1.0
1.4
0.7
15
27
0.6
QJ
17
0.3
Government . . .
Federal . . . .
State and local
Source:
vehicles and parts is expected to increase at a robust rate,
averaging 5.8-percent growth between 1982 and 1990. This
represents an increase in new domestic car sales to 8.6
million units by 1990. Although low by the standards of
the 1960’s and I970’s, this is still well above the average
sales rate of 5.7 million domestic cars in 1982. The slow-
16
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(12
1.8
down from the long-term trends is caused by continuing
relative price increases, à projected decline in the entry of
new drivers into the marketplace, and the assumption that
imports will continue to improve their competitive position
in this country. The following table summarizes purchase
data for motor vehicles, historically and projected.
Vehicles and parts as
a percent of pce
(1972 dollars) ........
New-vehicles sales
(millions of units) . . .
New-car sales ........
Domestic ............
Imported ............
New-light-truck
sales ....................
Percent import share,
new c a r s ..................
1968
1973
1977
1982
1990
1995
6.3
7.4
7.3
5.9
7.3
7.0
10.4
11.1
8.0
16.6
12.4
12.0
8.6
13.6
11.4
9.6
14.6
9.6
1.0
1.8
2.1
5.7
2.3
3.7
8.4
3.6
—
2.3
3.5
2.4
4.2
4.1
10.7
15.5
18.7
28.3
30.0
30.0
9.0
are also expected to become increasingly important. Thus,
considerable growth of 4.2 percent annually in the 1982—
95 period is projected, much higher than the growth rate of
2.9 percent for total consumption during the same period.
Consumer purchases of nondurables are expected to ac
count for progressively smaller shares of g n p throughout
the projection period. Nondurables accounted for 25.6 per
cent of g n p in 1968. The share dropped to 24.5 percent in
1982 and is projected to decline further to 22.8 percent and
21.6 percent of g n p in 1990 and 1995, as nondurables grow
more in line with population than they did during the 1970’s.
Food consumption has been declining as a proportion of
total p c e over time, and it is expected to continue to do so
through 1995. As a family’s real income increases, the
percentage spent on food decreases. In 1982, purchases of
food accounted for 19.0 percent of p c e , while by 1995,
they are expected to decline to 15.8 percent. Particularly,
demand for restaurant meals is projected to grow more slowly
in the period than in recent years. During the last decade,
a rapid increase in the number of working wives helped to
boost restaurant sales. Female labor force participation is
projected to continue to rise over the projection period but
at a slower pace than during the last 10 years. Consequently,
purchased restaurant meals are projected to grow only at a
rate of 1.1 percent per year in the 1982-95 period, compared
with 2.8 percent between 1973 and 1979.
Average growth of 2.3 percent annually is projected for
purchases of clothing and shoes between 1982 and 1995,
compared with rates of 3.9 percent per year in the 1968-
16.1
8. 6
Like the case for motor vehicles, the projected surge in
purchases of furniture and household appliances is attrib
utable to recovery. With the expected upturn in construction
of new homes, demand for housing-linked items is expected
to increase rapidly, at a rate of 4.6 percent per year, between
1982 and 1990.
In addition to the housing-related demand growth, a new
boom in household appliances and furnishings, largely par
alleling the 1950’s television experience, will feature con
sumer electronics and a new wave of replacement demand.
Purchases of home computers and supplemental equipment,
such as printers and software, have exploded in the U.S.
marketplace; demand for such popular new products is fore
seen to grow strongly in the next decade. Other new elec
tronic products, such as compact audiodiscs, video cassette
recorders, and sophisticated electronic telephone systems,
Table 2.
Selected m acroeconom ic variables, 1968, 1973, 1977, 1982 and projected to 1990 and 1995
Item
GNP deflator (1972 = 100) ....................
82.5
105.7
140.0
1995
1990
1982
1977
1973
1968
Moderate
High
206.9
341.1
315.9
Low
High
303.5
Low
Moderate
483.7
372.1
341.8
120.9
6.8
128,250
18,532
109,718
2,500
22,963
72,673
11,582
Private nonfarm productivity....................
Unemployment rate.................................
86.6
3.6
95.2
4.9
100.1
7.1
100.0
9.7
116.1
5.4
114.6
6.3
114.0
6.5
125.3
5.2
122.7
6.0
Total employment (in millions) ................
Government .......................................
Private .............................................
Farm .............................................
Manufacturing .................................
Service-producing ...........................
Other .............................................
83,549
14,092
69,457
3,662
20,065
37,363
8,367
91,735
15,506
76,229
6,220
20,438
43,567
9,004
97,539
16,783
80,756
2,950
20,017
48,796
8,993
105,555
17,471
88,084
2,815
19,223
56,721
9,325
121,869
17,891
106,978
2,672
22,635
67,828
10,843
120,830
17,658
103,172
2,652
22,236
67,533
10,751
119,735
17,993
101,742
2,630
21,686
66,559
10,867
132,843
18,482
114,361
2,595
24,132
75,596
12,038
130,260
18,203
112,057
2,550
23,491
74,157
11,859
Average annual rate of change (in percent)
1982-90
Low
Moderate
High
1968-73
1990-95
1982-90
1990-95
1982-95
1982-90
1990-95
GNP deflator (1972 = 100) ....................
5.1
7.3
8.1
6.5
7.2
5.4
3.3
4.6
4.9
3.4
Private nonfarm productivity....................
1.9
1.3
0.0
1.9
1.5
1.7
1.4
1.6
1.7
1.2
1.7
1.7
1.4
1.6
1.5
1.6
1.8
1.5
1.9
Total employment...................................
0.4
0.7
0.1
0.6
0.3
0.3
0.8
1.9
2.0
Government.......................................
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
1.6
1.8
2.1
1.2
1.9
Private .............................................
-0.7
-0.7
-0.8
-0.6
-0.8
-0.6
-2.2
-0.9
-2.5
Farm .............................................
1.3
1.8
1.1
1.3
1.5
2.1
0.4
-0.5
-0.8
Manufacturing.................................
2.2
1.9
1.8
2.0
2.3
2.2
2.9
3.1
3.1
Service-producing ...........................
2.1
1.8
2.0
1.6
1.9
0.7
1.9
- 0.0
1.5
Other .............................................
Source: Historical and projected employment data and projected price deflator, Bureau of Labor Statistics: historical price deflator, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
1.4
0.6
1.5
-1.0
1.2
1.8
1.3
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17
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • Economic Outlook For The 1990's
Table 3.
Personal consum ption expenditures by m ajor categories, 1968, 1973, 1977, 1982, and projected to 1990 and 1995
[Billions of 1972 dollars]
Category
Total ................
1968
1973
1977
1982
1990
1995
High
Moderate
Low
High
Moderate
Low
$634.4
$768.5
$864.3
$970.2
$1,296.0
$1,240.2
$1,196.8
$1,491.4
$1,412.4
$1,349.1
Motor vehicles and parts .
Household appliances . . .
Household furnishings . . .
Other durable goods . . . .
Total durables . . .
40.3
14.2
20.5
13.4
88.3
56.5
25.1
18.5
121.3
63.5
26.3
26.6
21.5
138.0
57.4
33.0
26.7
22.7
139.8
107.0
52.5
41.5
35.0
236.0
90.3
48.3
37.5
32.7
208.8
80.7
43.8
34.6
31.0
190.1
118.1
64.6
51.2
43.5
277.4
98.2
57.4
45.1
39.7
240.4
87.1
55.1
43.8
37.8
223.8
Food and beverages . . . .
Clothing and shoes........
Gasoline and o il............
Fuel oil and coal............
Other nondurable goods . .
Total nondurables .
142.4
49.0
19.9
5.3
53.9
270.5
153.6
59.3
26.2
5.4
63.5
308.0
170.6
67.5
27.7
4.4
63.2
333.4
184.0
84.4
25.6
3.5
216.6
106.9
29.7
3.7
90.3
447.2
213.2
103.9
28.8
3.7
207.1
228.7
117.0
30.5
4.4
208.9
105.3
26.8
4.1
93.3
438.4
Housing services ..........
Household electricity . . . .
Household natural gas . . .
Other household operations
Transportation services . .
Other services ..............
Total services . . . .
93.5
9.6
5.9
23.4
23.4
119.7
275.6
118.2
13.0
6.4
28.0
28.5
145.1
339.2
141.3
16.0
6.5
32.6
32.7
163.9
393.0
38.6
31.7
199.6
466.2
215.2
25.5
5.3
55.0
45.0
266.7
612.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
6.4
7.4
2.2
2.8
7.3
3.0
3.1
2.5
16.0
5.9
3.4
8.3
4.1
3.2
2.7
18.2
21.2
66.6
364.2
171.3
18.3
6.6
436.2
27.9
3.6
84.3
423.7
481.2
223.8
113.7
28.9
4.4
97.2
468.0
212.7
24.6
5.1
52.9
42.4
257.5
595.2
209.8
24.1
5.0
51.4
41.0
251.8
583.1
249.3
30.0
5.2
68.9
55.1
324.3
732.8
247.7
28.4
4.7
64.0
50.1
309.1
704.0
245.1
27.2
4.5
61.3
47.9
300.9
686.9
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
7.3
3.9
3.0
6.7
3.7
2.9
7.9
4.3
3.4
2.9
18.6
7.0
4.1
3.2
6.5
4.1
3.2
86.6
100.8
100.6
Percent distribution
Total ................
Motor vehicles and parts .
Household appliances . . .
Household furnishings . . .
Other durable goods . . . .
Total durables . . .
3.2
2.1
13.9
Food and beverages . . . .
Clothing and shoes........
Gasoline and o il..............
Fuel oil and coal..............
Other nondurable goods . .
Total nondurables . .
8.5
42.6
Housing services ............
Household electricity........
Household natural gas . . . .
Other household operations
Transportation services . . .
Other services ................
Total services........
14.7
1.5
0.9
3.7
3.7
18.9
43.4
22.4
7.7
3.1
7.7
3.4
0.7
8.3
40.1
19.7
7.8
3.2
0.5
7.3
38.6
15.4
1.7
16.3
1.9
0.8
0.8
20.0
0.8
196873
Total
3.3
2.4
15.8
3.6
3.7
18.9
44.1
197377
3.9
3.0
Motor vehicles and parts
Household appliances . .
Household furnishings . .
Other durable goods . . .
Total durables . .
7.0
8.4
4.1
6.7
3.0
5.5
1.5
3.8
3.3
Food and beverages . . .
Clothing and shoes
Gasoline and oil ..........
Fuel oil and coal..........
Other nondurable goods .
Total nondurables
1.5
3.9
5.7
0.4
3.3
6.6
2.7
3.3
1.4
-5.0
-
0.1
2.0
3.8
3.8
19.0
45.5
197782
-
2.8
2.3
14.4
19.0
8.7
2.6
0.4
6.9
37.5
17.7
1.9
0.7
4.0
3.3
20.6
48.0
2.6
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2.8
2.8
15.9
2.3
0.3
7.0
34.5
17.2
8.4
2.3
0.3
7.0
35.2
17.3
8.4
2.3
0.3
7.0
35.4
0.3
6.7
32.3
0.3
6.9
33.1
0.3
6.9
32.5
16.6
17.2
17.5
16.7
17.5
18.2
16.7
8.2
2.0
0.4
4.2
3.5
20.6
47.3
2.0
2.0
0.4
4.3
3.4
20.8
48.0
0.4
4.3
3.4
21.0
48.7
Average annual rate of change (in percent)
High
Moderate
198219901982199090
95
90
95
15.3
7.8
2.0
2.0
0.3
4.6
3.7
21.7
49.1
17.0
16.6
15.8
15.5
7.8
8.1
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
0.3
4.5
3.5
21.9
49.8
0.3
4.5
3.6
22.3
50.9
Low
198295
198290
199095
2.3
3.7
2.8
3.1
2.6
2.9
2.7
2.4
2.0
8.1
2.0
5.8
4.9
4.3
4.7
5.1
1.7
3.5
3.8
4.0
2.9
4.2
4.4
4.1
4.4
4.3
4.3
3.6
3.3
4.0
3.9
1.5
4.7
4.8
4.0
3.3
1.0
1.5
2.3
0.9
1.7
2.9
1.9
1.5
2.3
0.2
4.6
0.3
6.8
4.2
4.3
4.4
3.3
1.5
4.6
-1.5
-4.5
3.0
1.9
2.1
1.1
0.1
1.1
1.1
6.0
5.6
5.6
0.6
3.9
1.8
0.5
3.5
2.2
1.9
2.6
1.8
1.5
0.1
3.5
2.3
1.4
0.6
3.3
2.3
2.6
1.8
2.6
1.5
Housing services ..........
4.8
4.6
3.9
2.9
3.0
2.7
Household electricity . . . .
6.3
5.3
2.8
4.2
3.3
3.7
Household natural gas . ..
1.6
0.4
0.1
-2.7
-0.4
-3.1
Other household operations
3.7
3.9
3.5
4.5
4.6
4.0
Transportation services . .
4.0
3.5
- 0.6
4.5
4.1
3.7
Other services ................
3.9
3.1
4.0
3.7
4.0
3.2
Total services........
4.2
3.8
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.1
Source: Historical data are from table 2.5 of the National Income and Product Accounts Tables, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
18
2.6
16.8
3.1
2.9
-
1.6
3.9
3.4
3.7
3.4
2.9
3.4
-2.5
4.0
3.6
3.4
3.2
1.1
0.9
-
0.2
3.0
1.9
0.7
3.2
2.5
2.6
3.5
-3.4
3.6
3.3
2.9
2.8
0.8
2.6
2.0
-
2.1
3.6
3.2
3.6
3.3
73 period and 4.0 percent in the 1973-82 span. This rep
resents real spending of $438 per person for clothing and
shoes in 1995, compared with $280 in 1973 and $363 in
1982. The baby boom of the fifties powered much of the
demand for clothing purchases of the sixties and seventies.
The baby bust of the sixties will mean, for the nineties, a
smaller proportion of the population in the 16- to 44-yearold group, accounting for 43 percent in 1995 versus 46
percent in 1982; individuals in this age group are major
purchasers of clothing and shoes.
Due to continuing conservation, the downsizing of cars,
and expected increases in relative energy prices, energy
consumption stays at low levels through 1995. In 1982, the
average miles-per-gallon for new domestic cars was 26.7,
while by 1995, this figure is expected to jump to 41.7.
Thus, only slight growth of 0.9 percent per year is projected
for gasoline and oil purchases in the 1982-95 period. Since
the energy crisis of the 1970’s, consumption of fuel oil and
coal for household heating and cooling has dropped sub
stantially in response to relative price increases. Although
the downward trend is expected to reverse in 1984, con
sumption will probably not return to its previous levels, at
least not in the projection period. Average annual growth
of 1.7 percent is projected for fuel oil and coal during the
1982-95 period.
Drugs and medical sundries is the only category of non
durables expected to show rapid growth during the projec
tion period. Because of continued demand growth and the
introduction of new kinds of products, a strong increase of
6.0 percent per year is projected between 1977 and 1995.
Consumer purchases of services have been becoming a
more important budget item historically, and this trend is
expected to continue to 1995. The growth of services pur
chases is broadly based; with the exception of natural gas
purchases, all categories of services are expected to increase
by at least 2.9 percent per year between 1982 and 1995.
Consumer expenditures for housing, which include rent
paid by tenants and an imputed rental value of owner-oc
cupied housing, have been an increasing share of total pc e
over time, rising from 14.7 percent in 1968 to 16.3 percent
in 1977, and to 17.7 percent in 1982. By 1995, housing
expenditures are expected to exceed food expenditures and
become the largest consumption category. The increase in
housing demand is in response to changes in household
formation rates— a trend toward single-person households,
and a decrease in family size from 3.0 persons in 1973 to
2.6 in 1982, and to 2.4 in 1995. Stable growth of 2.9 percent
per year in housing expenditures is projected for the 198295 period.
Since the early 1970’s, demand for electric power has
increased, consistently outpacing growth in g n p . In con
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
trast, demand for natural gas has continued to decrease.
This shift reflects diminished natural gas supplies and price
hikes that have caused electricity to become the principal
alternative energy source. During the past 2 years, retail
natural gas prices rose by 40 percent (in nominal terms) in
some parts of the Nation, and industry experts predict a
sharp rise of 16 percent for the 1984 winter heating season.
These trends of increased availability of electricity and de
creased use of natural gas are expected to continue through
1995. Demand for electricity will grow 3.4 percent per year
in the 1982-95 period, while demand for natural gas will
fall at a rate of - 2 . 5 percent.
Purchases of telephone and telegraph services by con
sumers are expected to grow substantially over the projec
tion span. This reflects the increased use of modern
communication systems, such as call-waiting and call-for
warding services, long-distance calling and related telecom
munication systems, and the computerized telephone. In
addition, cable television services have been expanding rap
idly during recent years; spending on cable television ser
vices in 1982 was more than triple that in 1977. This trend
is expected to continue in the next decade. Also contributing
to increasing relative expenditures for communications ser
vices is the divestiture proceeding currently underway -for
the major supplier of these services. Communications ser
vices are projected to grow at an annual rate of 5.2 percent
between 1982 and 1995.
The large increases projected in medical care services are
affected by continued growth in the percentage of the pop
ulation over age 65, who need more health care than the
general population, and by the increasing availability of
new, sophisticated, and expensive medical treatment equip
ment. In addition, demand for medical services seems to be
relatively immune to the effects of price increases. Medical
spending is projected to grow to 8.3 percent of p c e in 1995,
compared to 7.0 percent in 1977.
Investment. Gross investment is expected to continue to
exhibit its traditional volatility during the projection period.
Accounting for 17.3 percent of g n p in 1973, gross private
domestic investment ( g p d i ) accounted for only 13.1 percent
by 1982, primarily because of the disastrous effects of high
inflation and the recessions of the 1970’s and early 1980’s
on housing construction. By 1990, investment accounts for
16.0 percent of g n p , reflecting growing expenditures for
equipment and the projected housing recovery. The share
declines slightly to 15.6 percent of g n p by 1995 as housing
construction hits a plateau.
Equipment purchases are expected to grow at a 3.5-per
cent rate between 1982 and 1995, well above the 2.4-percent
rate of the 1973-82 period. Although still well below the
19
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • Economic Outlook For The 1990’s
rate of growth of producers’ durable equipment ( p d e ) pur
chases during the 1960’s, this has important implications
for productivity.
In terms of industries, computers and peripheral equip
ment are projected to rise from 8 percent of producers’
durable equipment expenditures in 1977 to 20 percent in
1995. Despite the rapid growth by the computer industry
during the 1970’s, more is still expected, brought on by
advances in microchip technology. These developments
should continue to bring down the price of computers, mak
ing them available to even the smallest businesses. Large
computers with speeds many times faster than the fastest
now available will find expanded uses, and will also be
purchased by large companies to replace existing equip
ment.
Investment spending on motor vehicles and aircraft is
projected to grow less rapidly than total outlays for pro
ducer’s durables as companies do little more than replace
equipment that wears out. Moderate growth in the agricul
tural sector translates into moderate investment in farm ma
ch in e ry . D ev elo p m en ts such as laser sy stem s, data
communications, and electronic mail will result in rapid
growth in investment in radio and telephone equipment.
The nonresidential construction market suffered its set
back in the mid-1970’s and has, to some extent, already
anticipated the recovery foreseen for the residential market.
Growth in nonresidential construction is expected to average
2.1 percent each year between 1982 and 1995. Growth of
expenditures for industrial structures is expected to exceed
5.0 percent annually over the entire period, more than off
setting the very slow growth expected for commercial office
buildings.
Housing. The residential construction market is projected
to recover strongly from its depressed condition of the last
several years. Private housing starts are expected to rise
from the 1982 level of 1.06 million units to a peak of 2.16
million in 1988. Thereafter, growth moderates and housing
starts stabilize at about 1.9 million units annually to 1995.
Hardest hit during the last several years have been single
family housing starts. In 1982 and 1983, government sub
sidy programs encouraged multifamily construction projects
and, as a result, multifamily starts constituted almost 37
percent of total starts in 1982. Projected stronger growth in
the single-family construction area means that one-unit houses
will account for 66.5 percent of starts, with multifamily
units dropping to 33.8 percent, by 1988. By 1995, single
family starts are 65.8 percent of total starts. Mobile homes
are projected to grow at a rate of 5.9 percent annually,
1982-90, and at a 2.5-percent rate between 1990 and 1995.
Exports and imports. The assumption that our major trading
partners will recover strongly from the current worldwide
recession underlies the strong growth projected for U.S.
exports of goods and services— 4.1 percent annually be
20
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
tween 1982 and 1990, accelerating to 5.2 percent each year,
1990-95. By end-use categories, the expected growth is
broadly based, as depicted in table 4.
Merchandise exports are expected to grow at an annual
rate of 5.3 percent over the projection period, led by con
sumer goods with average growth of 6.9 percent. In dollar
values, capital goods are expected to show the largest in
creases— $24.2 billion, or nearly one-third of the total in
crease. Growth in exports of consumer goods and capital
goods reflects the expectation that U.S. trade will move
toward developing countries in the long run because those
countries tend to require goods with higher technological
inputs, such as electronic computers and parts, aircraft and
parts, telephonic and other electrical apparatus, and medic
inal and pharmaceutical preparations. By 1995, computers
are expected to be the leading export industry, reaching 5.3
percent of total exports with a growth rate of 8.4 percent
per year from 1977 to 1995. Exports of telephone and tel
egraph apparatus show the highest annual rate of increase—
10.9 percent— over the 1977-95 period. The category of
food, feeds, and beverages will continue to account for a
sizable share of U.S. exports in coming years, but it will
grow at a slower rate. The following table highlights those
industries with the best expected export performance:
P ercen t
o f to ta l
The five largest export industries,
1995:
e x p o r ts
Computers ............................................
Food and feed grains ...................................
A irc ra ft.............................................................
Electronic components .................................
Motor vehicles ...............................................
The five fastest growing export
industries, 1977-95:
5 3
4.2
3.6
3.4
3.3
A nnual p ercen t
g r o w th r a te
Telephone and telegraph apparatus.
Communications ................................
Floor covering mills ......................................
Furniture and fixtures ....................................
Computers ........................................................
10.9
10.3
8.9
8.5
8.4
Imports are projected to grow at an average rate of 3.0
percent annually between 1982 and 1995. Merchandise im
ports will exhibit more rapid growth of 3.8 percent. Over
the 1980-82 period, petroleum imports dropped by $1.8
billion, or 14 percent, as a result of both the U.S. recession
and continuing efforts to conserve energy. Increasing im
ports of petroleum during the projection period result from
falling domestic production and some increase in demand.
Domestic oil production is expected to continue to decline
somewhat, dropping from 9.9 million barrels per day in
1982, and stabilizing at 9.5 million by 1990. In real terms,
the barrel price of oil is assumed to reach $52 by 1995, a
price rise which is accounted for by general inflationary
expectations. Thus, overall demand for petroleum tends to
increase without the price constraints evident during the
Table 4.
Foreign trade by end-use categories, 1968, 1 9 7 3 ,1 9 7 7 ,1 9 8 2 , and projected to 1990 and 1995
[Billions of 1972 dollars]
1995
1990
Category
1968
1973
1977
1982
Net exports .................................................
Net merchandise .......................................
Net services .............................................
$ 1.9
-1.9
3.8
$15.5
1.5
14.0
$ 22.0
0.9
21.1
$ 28.9
1.7
27.2
$ 34.1
-8.2
42.3
Total exports ...............................................
Merchandise .............................................
Foods, feeds, and beverages....................
Industrial supplies and materials ..............
Capital goods, excluding autos..................
Automobiles...........................................
Consumer goods.....................................
Other goods...........................................
Services...................................................
61.2
39.0
5.5
12.3
13.3
4.1
2.7
1.0
22.3
97.3
61.2
9.7
17.1
21.3
6.4
4.4
2.3
36.1
112.9
68.0
10.5
16.8
24.1
7.9
6.1
2.6
44.9
147.3
81.4
14.5
21.7
28.4
5.4
7.4
4.0
65.9
Total imports ...............................................
Merchandise .............................................
Foods, feeds, and beverages....................
Industrial supplies, excluding petroleum . . . .
Petroleum and petroleum products............
Capital goods, excluding autos..................
Automobiles and parts .............................
Consumer goods.....................................
Other goods...........................................
Services............ T....................................
59.3
40.9
6.5
14.0
2.8
3.9
5.4
6.8
1.4
18.5
81.8
59.7
7.4
16.5
6.6
7.2
8.9
11.4
1.7
22.1
90.9
67.1
6.9
17.8
9.0
9.0
10.6
12.5
1.5
23.8
118.4
79.7
7.2
16.3
5.1
18.9
11.5
17.9
2.9
38.7
Total exports ...............................................
Merchandise .............................................
Foods, feeds, and beverages....................
Industrial supplies and materials ..............
Capital goods, excluding autos..................
Automobiles...........................................
Consumer goods.....................................
Other goods...........................................
Services...................................................
100.0
63.7
9.0
20.1
21.7
6.7
4.4
1.6
36.4
100.0
62.9
10.0
17.6
21.9
6.6
4.5
2.4
37.1
100.0
60.2
9.3
14.9
21.3
7.0
5.4
2.3
39.8
100.0
55.3
9.8
14.7
19.3
3.7
5.0
2.7
44.7
100.0
57.4
10.2
16.4
19.2
3.5
6.2
1.9
42.6
Total imports ...............................................
Merchandise .............................................
Foods, feeds, and beverages ....................
Industrial supplies, excluding petroleum . . . .
Petroleum and petroleum products............
Capital goods, excluding autos..................
Automobiles and parts.............................
Consumer goods.....................................
Other goods...........................................
Services...................................................
100.0
69.0
11.0
23.6
4.7
6.6
9.1
11.5
2.4
31.2
100.0
73.0
9.0
20.2
8.1
8.8
10.9
13.9
2.1
27.0
100.0
73.8
7.6
19.6
9.9
9.9
11.7
13.8
1.7
26.2
100.0
67.3
6.1
13.8
4.3
16.0
9.7
15.1
2.4
32.7
100.0
73.5
7.2
14.9
5.5
16.4
9.8
17.4
2.1
26.5
Moderate
Low
Low
High
$ 48.8
7.7
41.1
$ 83.0
35.8
47.2
$ 22.8
-21.5
44.3
$ 85.9
28.9
57.0
$148.4
72.9
75.6
206.7
118.7
21.1
33.8
39.6
7.3
12.9
4.0
88.0
202.3
119.8
20.1
34.6
40.9
7.9
12.5
3.9
82.5
206.5
125.7
20.1
35.3
43.6
9.7
13.1
3.9
80.9
261.7
146.5
30.1
41.3
45.4
7.2
17.5
4.9
115.2
260.0
158.7
28.3
45.1
52.6
10.5
17.6
4.6
101.3
267.9
171.9
28.4
45.9
59.5
13.9
19.6
4.6
96.0
172.6
126.9
12.5
25.8
9.5
28.3
17.0
30.1
3.7
45.7
153.5
112.1
11.5
22.8
8.9
24.9
14.9
25.4
3.7
41.4
123.5
89.9
10.3
20.4
8.4
16.9
12.5
17.8
3.7
33.6
238.9
168.0
14.7
29.0
13.3
44.1
20.1
42.6
4.2
70.9
174.1
129.8
13.2
23.3
12.7
29.6
17.1
29.7
4.2
44.3
119.4
99.0
10.7
20.7
12.5
19.2
16.1
15.6
4.2
20.4
100.0
60.9
9.7
17.1
21.1
4.7
6.3
1.9
39.2
100.0
56.0
11.5
15.8
17.3
2.8
6.7
1.9
44.0
100.0
61.0
10.9
17.3
20.2
4.0
6.8
1.8
39.0
100.0
64.2
10.6
17.1
22.2
5.2
7.3
1.7
35.8
100.0
100.0
73.0
72.8
7.5
8.3
14.9
16.5
5.8
6.8
13.7
16.2
9.7
10.1
14.4
16.5
2.4
3.0
27.2
27.0
Source: Historical data are from tables 4.2 and 4.4 of the National Income and Product Accounts Tables, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
100.0
70.3
6.2
12.1
5.6
18.4
8.4
17.8
1.8
29.7
100.0
74.6
7.6
13.4
7.3
17.0
9.8
17.1
2.4
25.4
100.0
82.9
9.0
17.3
10.5
16.1
13.5
13.1
3.5
17.1
High
Moderate
Percent distribution
1970’s. Petroleum imports are projected to grow at a rate
of 7.3 percent per year between 1982 and 1995.
Imported cars held their own during the 1981-82 reces
sion. Sales of imports were at 2.3 million units in 1982,
accounting for 28 percent of all new-car sales. By 1995,
annual automobile imports are projected to reach 3.6 million
units, or 30 percent of all domestic sales. Average growth
of 3.1 percent per year is expected over the 1982-95 period.
Two other categories of imports— capital goods, except
autos, and consumer goods— are expected to grow at rates
of 3.5 percent and 4.0 percent respectively from 1982 to
1995. In capital goods, electronic equipment and compo
nents and business equipment will contribute most of the
increase; in consumer goods, nondurable goods imports such
as apparel will strengthen total growth. Imported apparel is
expected to reach 22 percent of total output (domestic output
plus imports) in 1995 versus 11 percent in 1977. Industrial
supplies, however, are expected to grow more slowly,
achieving a yearly rate of 2.8 percent in the 1982-95 period.
The net result of these projections is a steady increase in
real net exports over the period, from $29 billion in 1982
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100.0
59.2
9.9
17.1
20.2
3.9
6.2
1.9
40.8
to $86 billion in 1995, boosting the gnp share of net exports
from 1.9 percent to 4.0 percent between those years.
Government. More than half of government purchases are
from the service industries, as indicated in the following
distribution of 1977 government purchases less sales, by
industry:
F e d era l
govern m en t
S o u r c e in d u s tr y
Total ..................
Agriculture, mining.
and maintenance
construction.......
Manufacturing.......
Transportation,
communications,
and public
utilities ..............
Trade .....................
Other services .......
S ta te a n d lo c a l
govern m en t
D e fe n se
N o n d efen se
E d u c a tio n
O th e r
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
1.5
34.1
- 1.7
27.2
4.2
11.2
5.2
13.5
4.0
0.9
59.5
3.6
2.3
68.6
3.5
-2 .7
83.7
5.6
2.3
73.4
21
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • Economic Outlook For The 1990’s
Federal employment in both the defense and nondefense
areas is assumed to show little growth through 1995. With
a steady level of armed forces, compensation falls from one
half of defense purchases in 1977 to little more than onethird in 1995. The remainder of defense purchases are mainly
from manufacturing industries, and it is in this area that
healthy growth is expected. Computers and peripheral
equipment purchases will more than triple, while those for
radio and communications equipment (which includes las
ers) are projected to more than double. Other defense-related
industries such as ordnance, missiles, aircraft, ships, and
electronic components will account for much of the rest of
the purchases.
Only moderate growth is expected in State and local gov
ernment purchases between 1977 and 1995 as a result of
the completion of the highway construction program; the
slowdown in Federal grants-in-aid, outside of health; slower
growth in the school-age population compared to the in
crease through the early 1970’s; and diminished citizen ex
pectations from government. Because most State and local
purchases are for compensation, the expected moderate growth
has only minor impacts on other industries. In general, State
and local government purchases are expected to mirror the
rest of the economy in the industries affected.
Alternatives to moderate growth
The high-growth and low-growth versions of the projec
tions vary the assumptions regarding fiscal and monetary
policy. By 1995, real gnp ranges between a low of $2,127
billion and a high of $2,265 billion, accompanied by un
employment rates of 6.8 percent and 5.2 percent for the low
and high, respectively. Each of the alternatives is summa
rized below and estimates from these scenarios are presented
with the moderate-growth projections in tables 1 and 2.
High growth. The major assumption in the high scenario is
that the Federal Reserve Board pursues a less restrictive
monetary policy than in the moderate growth projections.
The assumption is that the Board of Governors allows more
rapid monetary growth in order to bolster recovery from the
1981-82 recession and to sustain a higher trend growth over
the long run.
This less-restrictive monetary policy, coupled with stronger
demand growth, leads to somewhat different inflation ex
pectations. The implicit gnp deflator increases at an annual
rate of 6.5 percent between 1982 and 1990, 1.1 percent
faster than in the moderate-growth version. However, in
stead of decelerating after 1990, implicit deflator growth
begins to pick up, running at 7.2 percent annually to 1995.
This is comparable with the rate of inflation during the
1973-77 period.
No real differences were assumed for fiscal policy in the
high-growth projection. The higher inflation rates do, how
ever, result in government expenditures growing more rap
idly throughout the period. Federal expenditures rise at a
22
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rate of 7.8 percent each year between 1982 and 1995 as
compared to the moderate-growth expenditures increase of
6.7 percent.
Real gnp grows at an average annual rate of 3.9 percent
during 1982-85, a 0.6-percent higher rate than in the mod
erate version. Between 1990 and 1995, gnp rises at the
same rate in both the moderate- and high-growth alterna
tives— 2.5 percent annually. This is due primarily to the
much higher rate of import growth in the high-trend version
which tends to mask greater increases in the other categories
of gnp . The gnp in 1995 is about $98 billion higher than
in the moderate-growth case.
Major demand differences are in purchases of consumer
durables ($37 billion higher), producers’ durable equipment
($25 billion higher), and in residential investment ($35 bil
lion higher). As noted above, greater income growth in this
version leads to higher levels of imports, while exports are
virtually unchanged. Net exports are therefore lower by $63
billion than in the moderate-growth projection. Finally, higher
rates of income growth mean greater government revenues,
which lead to a balanced Federal budget in 1990.
In the high-trend alternative, the distribution of demand
as compared to the moderate version shows no change in
the share going to government. Personal consumption ex
penditures at the total level show little difference, masking
the fact that durables increase at the expense of nondurables
and services. This follows from the assumption of easier
money and lower interest rates, which are major induce
ments to purchase durables. Lower interest rates also lead
to a larger share of gnp going to equipment investment and
construction. Increased purchases from manufacturing as a
result of higher government, durable goods, equipment, and
construction purchases are more than cancelled by the large
increase assumed for imports. The drop in the export share
of gnp is partially reflected in a slight decline in the agri
cultural industries share.
Low growth. This alternative simulation assumes higher
levels of government spending, especially in defense, but
also in transfers and grants. Federal expenditures grow at a
rate of 9.4 percent each year between 1982 and 1990 and
at. 7 percent during the 1990-95 period. This compares to
7.5-percent and 6.1-percent growth over the same periods
in the moderate-growth scenario. Defense growth is about
1.5 percent higher each year between 1982 and 1988, re
flecting somewhat higher staff levels and greater expendi
tures on goods. Transfer payments are higher in every
category, with the major increase in social security and
medicare. As a result of the more aggressive (or less con
trolled) fiscal policy, the Federal Government runs deficits
of about $200 billion for the remainder of the decade, with
only modest tapering after 1990 to about $160 billion by
1995.
In addition, the monetary authorities are assumed to be
generally more restrictive in order to hold down inflation.
Both M l and M2 grow at about 0.6-percent-lower rates than
in the moderate-growth projections. As a result, both shortand long-term interest rates are pushed higher, remaining
in the double-digit range over the entire forecast period.
The high interest rates and severe competition for funds
in the credit markets limits the growth of demand, especially
for durable items. Real g n p is $40 billion lower in 1995
than in the moderate-growth case. Personal consumption
expenditures are lower by $63 billion and gross private
investment is off by $52 billion from the 1995 moderategrowth levels. In a situation analogous to that in the highgrowth case, the slower growth in income lowers imports
by $55 billion, thus masking, to some extent, the full impact
on the domestic economy. Reduced income growth only
exacerbates the Federal deficit situation, despite assumed
personal tax hikes during the mid- and late-1980’s. Damp
ened capital goods spending leads to lower productivity and
job growth over the entire period.
Different assumptions in the low-growth case cause minor
variations in the level of g n p , but large internal shifts, as
compared to the base case. Tight monetary policy leads to
higher interest rates with the expected retarding effect on
consumers’ and producers’ durable goods and on construc
tion— sectors that purchase heavily from manufacturing.
However, because imports are assumed to grow at a much
slower rate, and defense spending at a faster rate, than g n p ,
the adverse impact of low demand on manufacturing is
alleviated. And lower consumer expenditures and invest
ment do cause trade to represent a larger share of g n p . □
1As part of a continuing program to assess the validity of b l s projections,
a future article will evaluate the projections of the U.S. economy for 1980.
For previous articles see Howard N Fullerton, Jr., “ The 1995 labor force:
a first look,” Monthly Labor Review, December 1980, pp. 11-21; Norman
C. Saunders, “ The U.S. economy through 1990— an update,” Monthly
Labor Review , August 1981, pp. 18-27; Valerie A. Personick, “ The out
look for industry output and employment through 1990,” Monthly Labor
Review , August 1981, pp. 28-41; Max L. Carey, “ Occupational em
ployment growth through 1990,” Monthly Labor Review, August 1981,
pp. 42 -5 5 ; and Howard N Fullerton, Jr., “ How accurate were the 1980
labor force projections?,” Monthly Labor Review. July 1982, pp. 15-21.
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2Projections of the Population of the United States: ¡952 to 2050,
Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 922 (U.S. Bureau of the
Census, 1982).
3Tables detailing the major assumptions underlying the aggregate pro
jections will be included with reprints of this article.
4Trade-weighted average value of the dollar vis-à-vis the currencies of
major U.S. trading partners.
23
The job outlook through 1995:
industry output and employment projections
Recovery is expected in construction and
durable goods, but services will continue
to lead jo b growth; several heavy industries
will not reach past peaks because changing
markets and technologies will dampen expansion
V a l e r ie A . P e r s o n ic k
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest projections of industry
output and employment indicate that contrary to several
popular reports the decade of the 1990's will not see the
demise of America’s smokestack industries. A sizable por
tion of the recent factory job loss can be attributed to the
1980—82 recessionary period, and as the economy recovers,
heavy manufacturing industries should increase employ
ment. Job gains in manufacturing will account for almost
1 of 6 new jobs between 1982 and 1995. (See table 1.)
Manufacturing, which represented 25 percent of all jobs in
1959 but less than 19 percent in 1982, is projected to main
tain this steady share throughout the 1982-95 period. (See
table 2.)
Because manufacturing job gains primarily reflect a re
bound from the low recession levels, much of the growth
occurs in the early part of the projection span. About 3
million jobs are projected to be added to factory employment
by 1990, but only about 1.3 million between 1990 and 1995.
Furthermore, despite the recovery, employment in several
key manufacturing industries (for example, autos and steel),
are not expected to reach previous peaks, at least not by
1995. A turnaround in demand is projected to boost pro-
Valerie A. Personick is an economist in the Office of Economic Growth
and Employment Projections. Karen J. Horowitz, an economist in the same
Office, contributed the section on technology and changing demand.
24
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duction in these sectors, but productivity improvements and
technological change will limit job expansion.
Despite manufacturing’s gains, most new job growth is
projected to take place in service-producing industries, as
it has in the past. Service-producing industries— broadly
defined as transportation, communications, public utilities,
trade, finance, insurance, real estate, other services, and
government— are projected to account for almost 75 percent
of all new jobs between 1982 and 1995.
Within the service-producing sector, the miscellaneous
or other service component is projected to continue to grow
the fastest. Industries such as medical care, business ser
vices, professional services, hotels, personal services, and
nonprofit organizations are projected to account for more
than 1 of 3 new jobs over the projection span, compared
with 1 of 6 for manufacturing industries. In addition, the
miscellaneous service sector is expected to have smoother
job growth than manufacturing. Because miscellaneous ser
vice industries were less impacted by the cyclical downturn,
they will not be as dramatically affected by the anticipated
economic upswing, leading to smoother employment growth.
These findings are from the Bureau’s most recent eco
nomic and employment projections for the years through
1995. This study of industry output and employment is one
in a series of four; the others describe projections of the
labor force, gross national product and the distribution of
final demand, and employment by occupation.1
Underlying assumptions and trends
Table 1.
P rojected job grow th, 1 9 8 2 -9 5
(In thousands]
Because of the unlimited range of actual outcomes in the
future, three alternative projections to 1995 were prepared
with an eye to suggesting a range of possibilities. These
three scenarios, characterized as low growth, moderate
growth, and high growth, assume various patterns of eco
nomic change. Because they are based on a few specific
assumptions about macroeconomic variables, they do not
represent the actual bounds to output and employment in
1995. Rather, they show what might happen under alter
native responses of the economy to changes in fiscal and
monetary policies.2
Unless otherwise noted, this article discusses the mod
erate growth projection. This case is marked by a period of
recovery from the 1982 recession, followed by stable eco
nomic growth through the mid-1990’s. The civilian un
employment rate, which was 9.7 percent in 1982, is projected
to fall to 6.3 percent by 1990, and then dip slightly to 6.0
percent by 1995. Total employment is expected to rise from
102.3 million in 1982 to 127.6 million by 1995, a gain of
more than 25 million new jobs. Growth is projected to be
faster in the earlier years, as industries rebound from the
recent economic downturn. Employment, which expanded
by 3.6 percent a year between 1975 and 1979, showed very
few gains during the business slump of 1980 or the brief
recovery period thereafter. The more severe recession of
1981-82 brought an additional 1.3-percent decline in total
jobs. Employment is projected to rebound, averaging growth
of 1.8 percent a year from 1982 to 1990, then slow to 1.5
percent annually through 1995.
The slowdown in employment reflects not only the di
minishing of the initial surge caused by recovery but, even
more significantly, a continuing slowdown in the rate of
growth of the labor force.3 Following the rapid expansion
of the 1970’s, labor force growth has begun to taper as the
last members of the baby-boom generation reach working
age. The slowdown is projected to continue through the
1980’s and 1990’s, as the decrease in births between 1960
and 1975 will cause an absolute decline in the number of
potential new workers ages 16 to 24. The labor force, which
grew 2.3 percent a year between 1970 and 1982, is projected
to grow 1.6 percent a year to 1990, and 1.0 percent a year
thereafter.
Workweek. Somewhat offsetting the effects of slower labor
force growth on job creation is the projection of the work
week. Average weekly hours are projected to continue their
long-term downward trend. In the short run, average weekly
hours, especially in manufacturing, are used to respond to
the pressures of the business cycle. At the beginning of an
economic downturn, employers cut back on overtime hours
before laying off workers, and as the economy improves,
overtime hours are added and the workweek extended before
new employees are hired. This recovery will be no excep
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1982-95
Industry
New
jobs
Total new
jobs................ 25,248
1982-90
1990-95
Percent
of total
New
jobs
Percent
of total
New
jobs
Percent
of total
100.0
16,000
100.0
9,248
100.0
Goods-producing:
Farm................
Mining............
Construction. . . .
Manufacturing. . .
Durable........
Nondurable. . .
6,548
-265
122
2,434
4,257
3,170
1,087
25.9
-1.0
.5
9.6
16.9
12.6
4.3
4,350
-163
39
1,472
3,002
2,224
778
27.2
-1.0
.2
9.2
18.8
13.9
4.9
2,198
-102
83
962
1,255
946
309
23.8
-1.1
.9
10.4
13.6
10.2
3.3
Service-producing:
Transportation,
public utilities
Trade ..............
Finance,
insurance, and
real estate. . . .
Services..........
Private
households. . .
Government. . . .
18,700
74.1
11,650
72.8
7,050
76.2
1,094
6,009
4.3
23.8
659
3,819
4.1
23.9
435
2,190
4.7
23.7
1,786
8,673
7.1
34.4
1,214
5,246
7.6
32.8
572
3.427
6.2
37.1
-289
1,427
-1.1
5.7
-235
947
-1.5
5.9
-54
480
-.6
5.2
tion. The factory workweek is projected to expand from
38.9 hours in 1982 to 39.8 hours by 1984; thereafter, the
long-term decline will resume, with manufacturing hours
averaging 38.8 by 1995. Hours in nonmanufacturing will
drop even more rapidly, reflecting both declines in the full
time workweek as well as increases in part-time employ
ment. For the private nonfarm economy as a whole, average
weekly hours are projected to fall from 35.1 in 1982 to 33.1
in 1995.
Productivity. Output per worker hour, or productivity, is
projected to return to rates of growth more characteristic of
the late 1960’s and early 1970’s. Between 1968 and 1973,
output per hour in the private nonfarm sector grew by 2.0
percent a year. Over the same span, employment and real
gross national product also enjoyed rapid growth— 2.1 per
cent for jobs and 3.5 percent for g n p . This period of ex
pansion was followed by years of declining productivity.
Between 1973 and 1979, productivity grew by only .9 each
year, and between 1979 and 1982 the rate dropped further,
to .4 percent. This decline is expected to be reversed, how
ever, as new capital investment, strong demand growth, and
more efficient utilization of the slowly growing labor force
all contribute to a resurgence in productivity. Output per
hour is expected to climb to a 1.6-percent annual growth
rate during the 1982-90 period, and then grow at a 1.3percent annual pace between 1990 and 1995.
For manufacturing alone, productivity gains are projected
to be just as dramatic. A 2.2-percent annual rise is projected
between 1982 and 1995, compared with 1.5 percent over
the 1973-79 period and .7 percent during 1979-82.
It should be noted that rising productivity does not nec
essarily mean layoffs— as noted, 4.3 million new factory
jobs will be added between 1982 and 1995. Productivity
advances can be accompanied by employment growth, as
the general level of production expands, g n p is projected
25
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • Job Outlook Through 1995
Table 2.
A ctual and projected em ploym ent by m ajor sectors, 1 9 5 9 -9 5
Employment (in thousands)
Sector
1959
1969
1979
1982
Total.........................................
Farm .....................................
Nonfarm.................................
67,705
5,491
62,214
82,401
3,495
78,906
102,211
2,861
99,350
Government.........................
Federal ...........................
State and local ................
Private ...............................
Mining.............................
Construction....................
Manufacturing..................
Durable ......................
Nondurable ..................
Transportation and public
utilities.........................
Trade .............................
Finance, insurance, and real
estate ...........................
Services...........................
Private households............
8,083
2,233
5,850
54,131
612
3,825
16,985
9,560
7,425
12,195
2,758
9,437
66,711
501
4,386
20,469
12,081
8,388
4,304
13,245
2,923
9,663
2,574
1990
1995
Low
Moderate
High
Low
Moderate
High
102,315
2,815
99,500
116,943
2,630
114,313
118,315
2,652
115,663
119,399
2,672
116,727
125,251
2,500
122,751
127,563
2,550
125,013
130,299
2,595
127,704
15,947
2,773
13,174
83,403
704
5,903
21,406
12,989
8,417
15,803
2,739
13,064
83,697
742
5,491
19,234
11,326
7,908
16,830
3,202
13,628
97,483
775
7,020
21,686
13,218
8,468
16,750
2,989
13,761
98,913
781
6,963
22,236
13,550
8,686
17,060
3,096
13,964
99,667
760
7,052
22,635
13,871
8,764
17,180
3,163
14,017
105,571
842
7,798
22,963
14,266
8,696
17,230
2,960
14,270
107,783
864
7,925
23,491
14,496
8,995
17,760
3,139
14,621
109,944
844
8,004
24,132
14,965
9,167
4,718
16,704
5,534
22,352
5,543
22,536
6,152
25,885
6,202
26,355
6,287
26,649
6,488
27,764
6,637
28,545
6,746
28,859
3,864
13,747
2,322
5,523
20,258
1,723 •
5,899
22,617
1,635
7,021
27,501
1,443
7,113
27,863
1,400
6,667
28,225
1,392
7,607
30,814
1,295
7,685
31,290
1,346
7,788
32,203
1,368
Percent distribution
1959
1969
1979
1982
Total.........................................
Farm .....................................
Nonfarm.................................
100.0
8.1
91.9
100.0
4.2
95.8
100.0
2.8
97.2
Government.........................
Federal ...........................
State and local ................
Private ...............................
Mining.............................
Construction.....................
Manufacturing..................
Durable .......................
Nondurable ..................
Transportation and public
utilities.........................
Trade .............................
Finance, insurance, and real
estate ...........................
Services...........................
Private households............
11.9
3.3
8.6
80.0
.9
5.6
25.1
14.1
11.0
14.8
3.3
11.5
81.0
.6
5.3
24.8
14.7
10.2
6.4
19.6
4.3
14.3
3.8
1990
1995
Low
Moderate
High
Low
Moderate
High
100.0
2.8
97.2
100.0
2.2
97.8
100.0
2.2
97.8
100.0
2.2
97.8
100.0
2.0
98.0
100.0
2.0
98.0
100.0
2.0
98.0
15.6
2.7
12.9
81.6
.7
5.8
20.9
12.7
8.2
15.4
2.7
12.8
81.8
.7
5.4
18.8
11.1
7.7
14.4
2.7
11.7
83.4
.7
6.0
18.5
11.3
7.2
14.2
2.5
11.6
83.6
.7
5.9
18.8
11.5
7.3
14.3
2.6
11.7
83.5
.6
5.9
19.0
11.6
7.3
13.7
2.5
11.2
84.3
.7
6.2
18.3
11.4
6.9
13.5
2.3
11.2
84.5
.7
6.2
18.4
11.4
7.1
13.6
2.4
11.2
84.4
.6
6.1
18.5
11.5
7.0
5.7
20.3
5.4
21.9
5.4
22.0
5.3
22.1
5.2
22.3
5.3
22.3
5.2
22.2
5.2
22.4
5.2
22.1
4.7
16.7
2.8
5.4
19.8
1.7
5.8
22.1
1.6
6.0
23.5
1.2
6.0
23.5
1.2
5.6
23.6
1.2
6.1
24.6
1.0
6.0
24.5
1.1
6.0
24.7
1.0
Average annual rate of change
1982-90
1959-69
1969-79
Total .........................................
Farm .....................................
Nonfarm .................................
2.0
-4.4
2.4
2.2
-2.0
2.3
.0
-.5
.1
1.7
-.8
1.7
1.8
-.7
1.9
Government .........................
Federal.............................
State and local..................
Private ...............................
Mining.............................
Construction ....................
Manufacturing ..................
Durable.........................
Nondurable ..................
Transportation and public
utilities .........................
Trade...............................
Finance, insurance, and real
estate ...........................
Services...........................
Private households............
4.2
2.1
4.9
2.1
-2.0
1.4
1.9
2.4
1.2
2.7
.1
3.4
2.3
3.5
3.0
.4
.7
.0
-.3
-.4
-.3
.1
1.8
-2.4
-3.5
-4.5
-2.1
.8
2.0
.5
1.9
.6
3.1
1.5
1.9
.9
.9
2.3
1.6
3.0
.1
.3
2.8
3.6
-1.0
3.6
4.0
-2.9
2.2
3.7
-1.7
1979-82
Low
Moderate
1990-95
High
1982-95
Low
Moderate
High
Low
1.9
-.6
2.0
1.4
-1.0
1.4
1.5
-.8
1.6
1.8
-.6
1.8
1.6
-.9
1.6
1.7
-.8
1.8
1.9
-.6
1.9
.7
1.1
.7
2.1
.7
3.0
1.8
2.3
1.2
1.0
1.5
.8
2.2
.3
3.2
2.1
2.6
1.3
.4
-.2
.6
1.6
1.7
2.1
1.2
1.5
.5
.6
-.2
.7
1.7
2.0
2.6
1.1
1.4
.7
.8
.3
.9
2.0
2.1
2.6
1.3
1.5
.9
.6
1.1
.5
1.8
1.0
2.7
1.4
1.8
.7
.7
.6
.7
2.0
1.2
2.9
1.5
1.9
1.0
.9
1.1
.9
2.1
1.0
2.9
1.8
2.2
11
1.3
1.7
1.4
• 2.0
1.6
2.1
1.1
1.4
1.4
1.6
1.4
1.6
1.2
1.6
1.4
1.8
1.5
1.9
2.2
2.5
-1.6
2.4
2.6
-1.9
1.5
2.8
-2.0
1.6
2.3
-2.1
1.6
2.3
-.8
3.2
2.7
-.3
2.0
2.4
-1.8
2.1
2.5
-1.5
2.2
28
-1.4
Moderate
High
N ote: Data include wage and salary w orkers, the self-employed, and unpaid fam ily workers.
to grow 2.9 percent a year between 1982 and 1995, com
pared with 3.1 percent during the 1969-79 period, and .1
percent during the 1979-82 period. However, it is expected
that new labor-saving technologies will cause shifts to occur
among industries, with many of the old-line factory jobs
giving way to new industries and occupations.
26
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Technology and changing demand. Labor-saving technol
ogies are not the only cause of employment shifts among
industries. Another determinant obviously is the demand for
an industry’s products. It is useful to separate aggregate
demand into two categories— final demand and intermediate
demand. Final demand includes consumer expenditures,
government purchases, investment in capital equipment and
structures, exports, and imports. Intermediate demand refers
to purchases necessary in the production process; for ex
ample, final demand by consumers for cars leads to inter
mediate demand by auto producers for steel, glass, plastic,
and so forth.
Intermediate demand changes over time for several rea
sons. New technology is but one. Other reasons include
substitutions necessitated by the changing relative prices of
inputs, or scarcity of inputs, or changes in the relative dis
tribution of goods which the industry produces.
Many times, a large increase or decline in demand for
one product of an industry can have an impact on the sup
plying industries, even when the technology is not changing.
When this demand change is coupled with a change in the
production process, the impact can be even larger.
The energy crisis of the 1970’s has led to some of these
changes. As gasoline became more expensive, and the Con
gress mandated better fuel efficiency in domestic cars, the
inputs to the production of autos changed. Cars became
smaller, taking less steel (and lighter weight steel). Spare
tires were replaced with smaller tires, and electronic ignition
systems and “ computers” were added to make cars more
fuel efficient. Also, businesses were forced to be more en
ergy efficient. Over time, they reduced their demand for
electricity, gas, and oil by replacing older machines with
more efficient models, renovating heating systems, and in
creasing building insulation.
Some changes occurred because of new technologies, and
because these technologies were becoming more affordable.
Advances in electronic components and computer chips made
small business computers more prevalent and personal com
puters and video games quite common in private homes.
Although this is reflected mainly as a final demand change,
these same electronic components led to “ smarter” ma
chinery, which can do more. This trend will f e d e r a te in
the 1980’s— most types of machinery are projected to in
clude electronic components in the future.
Changing intermediate demand also affects the projection
of miscellaneous business services. Many firms contract out
for the services of this industry— computer software and
services, mailing and reproduction services, building ser
vices, and personnel, management, and public relations ser
vices. As the demand for computers grows, obviously the
demand for software will also grow. Businesses are finding
that it is more efficient to get specialized services from
professionals, instead of trying to do everything in-house.
Another growing component in business overhead is tele
phone communications. Firms have become increasingly
dependent on telephone communication as business travel
became more expensive and establishments more geograph
ically spread out. As the capability of computers to “ talk”
to one another expands, this should become even more
important. We have only begun to see the advances which
are possible in this industry.
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Most machinery is becoming smaller and being built with
less steel. This change is reflected in the inputs to most
industries, but causes a secondary impact on the demand
for iron ore and coal.
Other changes in intermediate demand are not expected
to be as large as those just described. The age structure of
the population and health concerns are likely to cause some
changes in the kinds of foods consumed and how they are
packaged— less sugar and salt, more microwave and frozen
foods. Food and beverages will be packaged more in plastic
and paper products, less in metal cans. Plastics are likely
to become even more commonplace and used in a multitude
of new ways, as their cost comes down and durability im
proves. The radial tire and lower annual car mileage should
slow down the domestic tire industry. As consumers keep
their cars longer, maintenance and repair of vehicles will
increase.
A continuation in the substitution of synthetic fibers for
natural fibers (cotton and wool) in clothing and textile prod
ucts is projected, although this trend is expected to slow.
Also projected is a change in how the advertising dollar
is spent in the future. There will be a drop in the proportion
spent on newspaper advertising, and an increase in that spent
on radio and on commercial and cable television. This goes
along with the closing of many afternoon newspapers, as
the trend to watching news on television increases.
Output and employment: selected industries
Many industries are projected to show very rapid output
and employment growth over the next several years but, for
a lot of them, growth mainly represents a catchup following
the severe 1980-82 recessionary period. (See table 3.) A
list of the top 10 growth industries for the 1982-95 period
illustrates how the recession and its subsequent recovery
can impact the long-range growth outlook. (See table 4.)
Several industries are on the list solely because their 1982
level of output or employment was so drastically reduced,
and not because they are expected to be the high-growth
industries of the 1980’s. Examples are iron and ferroalloy
ores mining (1982 output was half the 1981 level and em
ployment less than two-thirds), and new construction. In
addition, other industries not on the fastest-growing list may
have faster growth rates projected for the years from 1982
to 1990 as they recover from recession, but their overall
1982-95 rate is projected to be lower than those industries
on the list. Examples are chemical and fertilizer mining,
fabricated metal stampings, engines and turbines, material
handling equipment, household appliances, and miscella
neous transportation equipment.
New construction, along with the motor vehicle industry,
actually led the recent downturn, as high inflation and in
terest rates constricted'purchases of new homes and new
cars. As the recession spread to supplier industries and to
other areas of the economy, high unemployment and re
sulting concern over job security added to consumers’ re27
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • Job Outlook Through 1995
Table 3.
G ross product by m ajor sector, actual and projected, 1 9 5 9 -9 5
Billions of 1972 dollars
Sector
1959
1969
1979
1982
Total private ............................................... $629.5
27.8
Farm ......................................................
601.7
Nonfarm .................................................
$951.9
29.5
922.4
$1,326.4
34.2
1,292.2
13.3
45.5
171.2
100.9
70.3
55.4
29.9
11.5
14.0
115.4
42.0
73.4
98.5
76.9
11.8
6.7
7.0
18.2
55.8
277.2
170.3
106.8
92.6
43.4
23.8
25.3
173.6
70.6
103.0
152.9
121.4
16.8
5.8
8.1
20.8
58.2
367.0
223.4
143.6
140.0
56.3
49.0
34.7
250.7
106.5
144.2
229.4
184.1
21.2
3.6
17.2
Mining.................................................
Construction.........................................
Manufacturing.......................................
Durable ...........................................
Nondurable.......................................
Transportation and public utilities ............
Transportation...................................
Communications ...............................
Public utilities ...................................
Trade . .............................................
Wholesale.........................................
Retail...............................................
Finance, insurance, and real estate ..........
Services................................................
Government enterprises .........................
Private households.................................
Rest of world and statistical discrepancy . .
1990
1995
Low
Moderate
High
Low
Moderate
High
$1,329.4
39.0
1,290.4
$1,690.0
40.6
1,649.4
$1,753.8
41.6
1,712.2
$1,838.4
41.9
1,796.5
$1,976.8
41.8
1,935.0
$2,001.3
43.1
1,958.2
$2,113.3
43.4
2,069.9
21.6
47.7
336.1
197.4
138.7
138.9
46.8
57.2
34.9
248.0
106.3
141.7
251.0
205.6
21.6
3.1
16.8
24.3
56.3
448.4
280.7
167.7
192.8
60.7
91.2
40.9
297.8
126.5
171.3
325.4
260.4
23.2
2.8
18.0
25,1
64.3
470.4
296.1
174.3
203.3
63.6
97.5
42.2
314.9
132.6
182.3
340.9
270.7
24.0
2.9
-4.3
25.3
73.2
490.7
312.3
178.4
213.0
66.0
103.5
43.5
332.4
140.0
192.4
351.5
283.5
24.9
3.0
-1.0
26.4
63.1
535.5
344.8
190.7
234.3
71.4
117.5
45.4
336.2
142.4
193.8
384.6
303.3
24.5
2.6
24.5
27.0
73.8
548.7
353.4
195.3
239.7
73.0
120.3
46.4
353.1
147.8
205.3
391.4
307.8
25.3
2.8
-11.4
27.3
86.5
572.6
372.7
199.9
251.9
76.1
127.8
48.0
376.3
157.6
218.7
405.5
323.9
26.6
3.0
-3.7
Average annual rate of change
1959-69
1969-79
1979-82
1982-90
Low
1990-95
Moderate
High
Low
Moderate
Total private ................................................
Farm ......................................................
Nonfarm ..................................................
4.2
.6
4.4
3.4
1.5
3.4
0.1
4.5
-.0
3.0
.5
3.1
3.5
.8
3.6
4.1
.9
4.2
3.2
.6
3.2
2.7
.7
2.7
Mining..................................................
Construction.........................................
Manufacturing.......................................
Durable ...........................................
Nondurable.......................................
Transportation and public utilities ............
Transportation...................................
Communications ...............................
Public utilities ...................................
Trade ..................................................
Wholesale.........................................
Retail...............................................
Finance, insurance, and real estate ..........
Services...............................................
Government enterprises .........................
Private households.................................
Rest of world and statistical discrepancy . .
3.2
2.1
4.9
5.4
4.3
5.3
3.8
7.5
6.1
4.2
5.3
3.4
4.5
4.7
3.6
-1.4
1.5
1.3
.4
2.8
2.8
3.0
4.2
2.6
7.5
3.2
3.7
4.2
3.4
4.1
4.3
2.4
-4.7
7.8
1.3
-6.4
-2.9
-4.0
-1.2
-.3
-6.0
5.3
.2
-.4
-.1
-.6
3.0
3.8
.6
-4.9
-.8
1.5
2.1
3.7
4.5
2.4
4.2
3.3
6.0
2.0
2.3
2.2
2.4
3.3
3.0
.9
-1.1
.9
1.9
3.8
4.3
5.2
2.9
4.9
3.9
6.9
2.4
3.0
2.8
3.2
3.9
3.5
1.3
-.9
(1)
2.0
5.5
4.8
5.9
3.2
5.5
4.4
7.7
2.8
3.7
3.5
3.9
4.3
4.1
1.8
-.3
<1)
1.7
2.3
3.6
4.2
2.6
4.0
3.3
5.2
2.1
2.5
2.4
2.5
3.4
3.1
1.1
-1.4
6.4
1.5
2.8
3.1
3.6
2.3
3.3
2.8
4.3
1.9
2.3
2.2
2.4
2.8
2.6
1.1
-.8
-21.3
1982-95
High
Low
Moderate
High
3.1
.6
3.2
3.2
.7
3.3
3.6
.8
3.7
1.5
1.6
3.4
2.2
3.1
3.6
3.6 4.4
2.3
2.5
3.4 4.1
2.9 3.3
4.3
5.7
2.0 2.0
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.6 2.4
2.9 3.3
2.7 3.0
1.3 1.0
-.3 -1.2
-29.9
2.9
1.8
3.4
3.8
4.6
2.7
4.3
3.5
5.9
2.2
2.8
2.5
2.9
3.5
3.2
1.2
-.9
(’)
1.9
4.7
4.2
5.0
2.8
4.7
3.8
6.4
2.5
3.3
3.1
3.4
3.7
3.6
1.6
-.3
(')
2.8
.7
2.9
’ Not computable.
Historical data are from the U S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Source:
luctance to make major spending commitments. Investment
in residential construction and motor vehicle production each
dropped by almost a third between 1979 and 1982.
Employment is projected to fare better in 1983 and suc
ceeding years. As unemployment falls and the economy
recovers, many durable goods industries will at first rebound
strongly and then eventually resume long-term growth pat
terns. Some sectors, however, will not be able to recover
to long-term growth paths, as changing markets and tech
nologies crimp expansion. (See table 5 for employment by
industry.)
Recovery in construction. Housing starts plunged from 2
million units in 1978 to fewer than l . l million in 1982, the
result of high interest rates which drove many families out
of the market for a new home. Pent-up demand will spur
new home sales as interest rates fall, but by the late 1980’s,
a slowdown in the rate of new household formation will
dampen these demand pressures. New housing starts are
projected to climb steadily to 2.2 million by 1988, but then
28
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taper to 1.9 million by 1995.
While new housing construction was in a severe slump,
maintenance and repair construction was buoyant. As one
might expect, the inability to purchase a new house led
many consumers to renovate their present dwellings. In
addition, high oil prices and energy tax credits resulted in
substantial investments in energy conservation measures.
The output of maintenance and repair construction (almost
two-thirds of which is for residences) rose 4.6 percent a
year from 1979 to 1981, more than three times as fast as
its long-term expansion rate of 1.5 percent. Employment
dropped in 1982 as the industry succumbed to the general
economic recession. A turnaround is projected, with the
output of maintenance and repair construction projected to
grow 2.2 percent a year through 1995.
Unlike new residential construction, nonresidential con
struction suffered a setback in the mid-1970’s, and has al
ready begun the recovery anticipated for homebuilding. A
2.1-percent growth rate is projected for nonresidential con
struction between 1982 and 1995. Growth of industrial
structures such as plants and utilities will exceed 5 percent
a year, while commercial buildings and other structures will
grow much more slowly.
Total employment in new and repair construction peaked
at 5.9 million in 1979, but fell to 5.5 million in 1982. The
job picture will brighten as the industry recovers, with em
ployment projected to.reach 7.9 million by 1995. Growth
will be faster between 1982 and 1990, rising 3.0 percent a
year, then taper to a 2.6-percent annual rate between 1990
and 1995.
at 3.6 million units, or 30 percent of all new car sales after
1989, as more foreign automakers open plants in the United
States.
Flat demand after the recovery period, foreign competi
tion, and new automated methods of production do not bode
well for employment in the auto industry. Only 127,000 of
the 284,000 jobs lost between 1979 and 1982 are projected
to be recovered by 1990. After 1990, employment increases
will be moderate through 1995. The projected 1995 level
of 860,000 jobs for the motor vehicle industry falls short
of the 1 million peak recorded in 1978.
Construction-related industries. Output and employment
trends in many construction-related industries mirror the
patterns just described. Logging, sawmills, planing mills,
and other wood product industries, which are heavily de
pendent on residential construction, suffered sizable output
and employment losses between 1979 and 1982. These in
dustries as a group took a 20-percent job cutback over that
period. As residential construction improves, jobs in wood
products industries should reappear. Employment is pro
jected to grow 2.0 percent a year from 1982 to 1990 and
.6 percent a year during the 1990-95 period. Almost all the
growth is projected to be in millwork and plywood shops.
Employment in logging, sawmills, and planing mills, which
had been declining slightly even before the recession, will
hold about level.
Most other construction-related industries will also show
recovery from 1982’s depressed levels. Included in this
group are stone and clay products, fabricated structural metal,
electric lighting and wiring, household appliances, furni
ture, and mobile homes. Most of the rebound occurs by
1988 or 1989, after which growth tapers off.
High-tech industries,
b l s has developed three definitions of
high technology industries based on the utilization of work
ers in technology-oriented occupations and on expenditures
for research and development.4 In addition, some judgments
were made to include or exclude industries based on the
major product or activity of the industry. Whichever defi
nition is used, employment in high technology industries is
projected to increase faster than total employment between
1982 and 1995; however, the contribution of high-tech in
dustries to total job growth will be relatively small. Under
the broadest of the three definitions, high-tech industries
account for 17 percent of all new jobs between 1982 and
1995; under the second definition, they account for 8 per
cent; while under the narrowest definition, they represent
slightly more than 3 percent. These ratios are about in line
with the industries’ share of new jobs over the previous
decade.
Projected employment growth rates vary widely among
high-technology industries. Computer and data processing
services and research and development laboratories, the only
nonmanufacturing industries in the group, will show some
Motor vehicles. Like home construction, the motor vehicle
industry was hit especially hard by high inflation and interest
rates. The value of domestic production was cut by onefourth in 1980, followed by an additional 10-percent drop
in 1982. Workers in the industry suffered massive layoffs—
284,000 jobs were lost over the 3-year span, with employ
ment falling to a level of 707,000 by 1982 from 991,000
in 1979.
Consumers are projected to increase demand for motor
vehicles as interest rates fall. New car sales are expected to
climb to more than 12 million vehicles per year by 1988,
compared with just 8 million in 1982.
After the catchup from 1982’s depressed sales levels,
however, new car sales are projected to plateau because of
long-term demographic shifts which have already begun.
The large numbers of new car buyers who flooded show
rooms in the 1970’s to purchase their first cars are now in
older age groups. This surge of first-time buyers will not
be seen again, at least not for several decades.
Imported autos held steady throughout the recession at
2.3 million units, as the drop in purchases occurred solely
among domestic models. Imports are projected to stabilize
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Table 4. Projected em ploym ent changes for selected
industries, 1 9 8 2 -9 5
Industry
Average innual rate of change
1982-95
1982-90
1990-95
4.3
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.5
3.4
3.2
3.1
3.2
4.1
5.7
4.0
4.2
3.6
4.1
3.2
3.6
3.3
6.1
3.6
1.1
3.4
3.0
4.0
2.4
3.7
2.7
2.8
-3.3
-2.3
-2.3
-2.2
-2.1
-2.0
-1.6
-1.5
-1.5
-1.3
-2.3
-2.1
-2.3
-2.4
-1.2
-1.0
-1.8
-1.5
-1.9
-1.4
-4.9
-2.6
-2.2
-1.9
-3.4
-3.7
Fastest growing:
Medical and dental instruments.......................
Business services.........................................
Iron and ferroalloy ores mining .......................
Computers and peripheral equipment ..............
Radio and television broadcasting ...................
Other medical services...................................
Plastic products...........................................
Scientific and controlling instruments ..............
Electronic components...................................
New construction .........................................
Most rapidly declining:
Leather tanning and industrial leather ..............
Dairy products (processed).............................
Wooden containers.......................................
Leather products, including footwear ..............
Tobacco manufacturers .................................
Bakery products...........................................
Railroad transportation...................................
Cotton ........................................................
Private households .......................................
Dairy and poultry products (farm) ..................
-1 .2
-1.5
-.8
-1.3
Note: Data include wage and salary workers, the self-employed, and unpaid family
workers.
29
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • Job Outlook Through 1995
T able 5.
A ctual and projected em ploym ent by Industry, 1 9 5 9 -9 5
[In thousands]
Actual
Industry
Projected
1990
1959
1969
1979
1982
Agriculture:
Dairy and poultry products..........................
Meat animals and livestock .........................
Cotton .....................................................
Food and feed grains .................................
Other agricultural products...........................
1,551
979
565
960
1,436
813
756
172
635
1,119
463
544
60
602
1,192
429
524
61
603
1,198
378
474
55
585
1,138
Mining:
Iron and ferroalloy ores mining....................
Copper ore mining .....................................
Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper .
Coal mining .............................................
Crude petroleum and natural gas (except drilling)
Stone and clay mining and quarrying ............
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining ..........
33
23
31
201
200
105
19
30
34
25
138
157
99
18
31
33
38
261
212
104
25
16
25
34
242
311
90
24
Construction:
New construction (including oil well drilling) . .
Maintenance and repair construction ............
3,163
662
3,594
792
4,679
1,224
Manufacturing:
Durable goods:
Ordnance ...................................................
Complete guided missiles and space vehicles . .
Logging .....................................................
Sawmills and planing mills.............................
Other millwork, plywood, and wood products . .
Wooden containers.......................................
Household furniture .....................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household..........
Glass..........................................................
Cement and concrete products ......................
50
94
143
305
261
43
259
124
153
209
175
107
138
230
310
36
316
153
188
228
Structural clay products.................................
Pottery and related products...........................
Other stone and clay products ......................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products ..........
Iron and steel foundries and forgings..............
Primary copper and copper products ..............
Primary aluminum and aluminum products
Primary nonferrous metals and products..........
Metal containers .........................................
Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures..........
78
49
125
588
269
137
111
78
75
71
Fabricated structural metal products................
Screw machine products ...............................
Metal stampings .........................................
Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ........
Other fabricated metal products......................
Engines, turbines, and generators..................
Farm machinery...........................................
Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery . . .
Material handling equipment...........................
Metalworking machinery ...............................
Low
Moderate
1995
High
Low
384
473
54
589
1,151
387
475
55
593
1,162
344
439
50
571
1,096
360
445
50
577
1,118
367
450
51
585
1,141
25
27
34
299
275
85
31
25
27
34
286
291
87
31
22
26
33
275
282
92
31
25
33
35
310
332
72
35
26
35
34
317
338
77
35
23
36
34
322
307
87
35
4,067
1,424
5,242
1,778
5,263
1,700
5,366
1,685
5,936
1,861
6,043
1,882
6,091
1,912
73
81
150
237
394
19
329
176
202
255
79
105
126
179
317
15
270
180
173
209
90
130
130
192
400
12
334
193
198
222
87
130
131
196
406
12
346
199
201
240
88
127
133
210
416
13
368
205
205
250
88
149
124
206
414
10
346
200
211
215
85
140
128
209
419
11
357
206
212
240
90
143
130
215
427
12
392
208
214
257
64
45
140
644
312
160
153
93
87
76
52
52
165
571
324
161
170
93
80
76
34
40
132
394
221
135
140
80
64
61
35
44
156
420
247
157
167
83
67
72
37
45
164
435
255
160
174
84
69
73
39
46
173
430
258
164
175
86
70
80
29
46
175
433
264
166
168
83
61
77
30
49
182
447
270
170
178
85
62
78
33
50
191
444
275
178
183
90
66
88
344
88
189
135
231
90
128
162
65
251
440
114
255
165
315
112
141
202
95
347
535
117
245
185
376
145
184
276
106
379
461
92
187
143
331
113
139
254
87
319
537
112
234
177
388
151
164
315
110
371
572
115
249
184
414
152
170
321
113
388
598
117
253
188
413
152
173
325
120
393
563
118
236
198
399
165
167
343
123
373
619
121
252
200
430
167
172
357
125
400
664
122
259
204
436
170
178
368
136
415
Special industry machinery.............................
General industrial machinery...........................
Other nonelectrical machinery.............. ..........
Computers and peripheral equipment..............
Typewriters and other office equipment............
Service industry machines .............................
Electric transmission equipment ....................
Electrical industrial apparatus .........................
Household appliances ...................................
Electric lighting and wiring.............................
164
221
166
111
28
97
157
176
157
134
206
291
246
224
52
147
207
223
187
205
205
329
313
339
59
188
221
251
178
225
176
288
292
428
47
159
215
206
142
187
206
336
323
586
55
190
235
255
175
229
207
342
331
586
60
199
245
261
183
239
211
343
341
593
64
211
246
275
193
246
210
350
339
665
67
208
246
284
185
251
213
356
345
694
69
214
256
288
188
253
221
362
362
706
73
232
263
313
202
253
Radio and television receiving sets..................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus ................
Radio and communication equipment..............
Electronic components .................................
Other electrical machinery and equipment ........
Motor vehicles.............................................
Aircraft ......................................................
Ship and boat building and repair ..................
Railroad equipment.......................................
Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts.....................
114
105
252
213
111
696
722
151
41
9
156
146
409
394
125
912
805
193
51
14
116
165
357
525
176
991
632
230
74
20
93
148
424
561
153
707
629
223
37
14
95
177
452
725
162
794
716
260
45
17
106
185
433
745
170
834
680
254
47
18
110
199
440
793
180
828
664
248
47
19
106
208
532
862
192
847
761
277
47
19
113
209
460
850
194
860
709
270
50
20
116
230
463
855
209
871
701
263
52
21
Other transportation equipment.......................
Scientific and controlling instruments..............
Medical and dental instruments.......................
Optical and ophthalmic equipment..................
Photographic equipment and supplies..............
Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices . . .
Jewelry and silverware .................................
Musical instruments and sporting goods..........
23
166
45
85
69
30
67
116
89
195
82
75
111
35
78
149
103
215
144
81
134
28
92
145
74
226
158
77
140
18
76
130
87
294
205
83
167
22
75
134
96
292
203
86
169
22
82
140
108
292
210
89
173
23
88
144
104
345
270
88
175
23
96
143
109
349
272
92
177
21
98
146
121
359
274
98
184
22
109
150
30
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Moderate
High
Table S.C ontinued— Actual and projected em ploym ent by industry, 1 9 5 9 -9 5
[In thousands]
Actual
Industry
1959
1969
Projected
1979
1982
1990
Low
Moderate
1995
High
Low
Moderate
High
229
233
245
218
210
214
224
216
218
238
Nondurable goods:
Meat products.........................................
Dairy products.........................................
Canned and frozen foods...........................
Grain mill products...................................
Bakery products.......................................
Sugar ...................................................
Confectionery products .............................
Alcoholic beverages .................................
Soft drinks and flavorings ........................
Other food products .................................
324
326
249
139
313
38
79
107
111
144
344
260
291
137
286
36
87
97
142
151
363
189
316
147
238
31
80
86
153
160
352
171
293
135
227
29
73
87
145
152
359
137
331
143
203
30
77
83
164
171
357
144
335
145
210
30
78
86
168
171
359
156
341
145
209
31
80
85
169
168
368
119
336
140
164
27
69
76
159
177
372
127
341
144
174
28
71
80
167
182
380
131
353
147
177
30
76
83
171
182
Tobacco manufacturing ............................
Fabric, yarn, and thread mills....................
Floor covering mills .................................
Other textile mill products .........................
Hosiery and knit goods .............................
Apparel .................................................
Other fabricated textile products ................
Paper products .......................................
Paperboard.............................................
Newspaper printing and publishing ............
95
619
39
74
221
1,100
143
415
175
328
83
616
58
82
251
1,244
182
483
231
376
70
531
61
71
227
1,125
198
494
214
432
68
442
49
60
205
1,009
171
475
189
445
61
448
52
69
207
1,056
220
513
190
492
62
461
56
72
218
1,074
223
516
201
494
64
457
63
75
218
1,061
228
524
209
491
50
471
57
65
224
1,117
234
526
179
517
52
474
58
67
236
1,125
238
533
192
535
58
482
62
74
240
1,093
243
551
208
543
Periodical and book printing and publishing . .
Other printing and publishing ....................
Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals , .
Agricultural chemicals...............................
Other chemical products ...........................
Plastic materials and synthetic rubber..........
Synthetic fibers .......................................
Drugs ...................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations..................
Paints and allied products ........................
156
446
260
54
82
81
79
106
89
62
210
550
296
65
124
108
132
143
123
72
230
640
328
70
99
100
112
193
140
69
248
668
329
65
95
89
97
199
147
62
296
733
362
81
107
110
110
253
166
68
298
758
358
84
111
114
116
254
168
71
304
751
353
84
121
119
124
252
166
72
330
745
371
82
116
113
121
276
167
65
338
789
379
88
120
116
124
281
176
70
344
803
381
93
121
124
134
284
178
73
Petroleum refining and related products
Tires and inner tubes ...............................
Rubber products except tires and tubes
Plastic products.......................................
Leather tanning and industrial leather..........
Leather products including footwear............
Transportation:
Railroad transportation .............................
Local transit and intercity buses ................
Truck transportation .................................
Water transportation.................................
Air transportation.....................................
Pipeline transportation...............................
Transportation services .............................
217
105
178
94
36
341
182
119
162
320
29
316
210
127
167
494
20
232
202
105
140
460
19
206
185
100
147
565
15
166
183
102
151
636
16
170
182
104
157
653
16
172
179
101
146
654
11
147.
182
104
150
716
12
154
183
108
159
741
14
144
930
311
1,001
239
184
24
70
651
315
1,214
234
357
18
111
559
303
1,555
222
443
20
198
433
314
1,454
206
450
22
224
353
345
1,720
197
522
22
261
373
341
1,701
210
532
24
269
429
345
1,702
327
350
1,750
561
24
295
351
361
1,774
214
568
24
302
377
385
1,793
216
573
27
302
Communications:
Radio and television broadcasting ..............
Communications except radio and television .
90
749
131
919
191
1,121
221
1,199
301
1,384
308
1,379
292
1,434
355
1,543
357
1,593
359
1,603
Public utilities:
Electric utilities, public and private..............
Gas utilities, excluding public....................
Water and sanitary services, except public . .
430
215
61
460
220
88
608
220
94
684
230
106
686
220
140
712
218
133
714
219
135
730
205
144
740
207
147
746
211
154
Trade:
Wholesale trade.......................................
Eating and drinking places.........................
Retail trade, except eating and drinking places
3,349
1,960
7,936
4,163
2,812
9,729
5,507
4,864
11,981
5,585
5,159
11,792
6,162
5,908
13,815
6,298
5,951
14,106
6,387
5,959
14,303
6,622
6,669
14,473
6,734
6,742
15,070
6,745
6,772
15,342
Finance, insurance, and real estate:
Banking .................................................
Credit agencies and financial brokers ..........
Insurance...............................................
Real estate .............................................
644
389
1,137
753
987
652
1,370
855
1,498
901
1,750
1,374
1,655
1,038
1,870
1,336
1,954
1,313
2,187
1,567
1,954
1,350
2,169
1,640
1,968
1,364
2,168
1,168
2,098
1,507
2,237
1,764
2,120
1,518
2,272
1,774
2,146
1,549
2,307
1,787
Services:
Hotels and lodging places .........................
Personal and repair services......................
Barber and beauty shops...........................
Miscellaneous business services ................
Advertising .............................................
Miscellaneous professional services............
Automobile repair.....................................
Motion pictures .......................................
Amusements and recreation services ..........
Doctors' and dentists’ services..................
Hospitals ...............................................
Medical services, except hospitals..............
868
1,157
538
814
121
746
422
228
372
605
974
303
1,065
1,232
634
1,691
134
1,046
569
248
497
806
1,776
672
1,549
1,239
632
3,178
165
1,814
839
311
769
1,351
2,614
1,431
1,693
1,305
624
3,743
186
2,147
910
310
870
1,503
3,016
1,664
1,914
1,466
652
4,951
213
2,573
965
325
1,035
1,876
3,895
2,089
1,915
1,519
660
5,172
2T8
2,640
1,029
315
1,059
1,897
3,963
2,208
1,891
1,621
685
5,331
221
2,620
1,101
316
1,082
2,036
3,889
2,279
2,004
1,547
707
6,148
228
2,916
1,113
323
1,173
1,971
4,471
2,649
2,010
1,592
733
6,183
234
3,004
1,141
326
1,193
2,005
4,477
2,034
1,734
760
6,229
238
3,099
1,186
337
1,248
2,095
4,665
2,744
Other manufactured products
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
214
528
25
250
204
2 ,6 8 8
31
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • Job Outlook Through 1995
Table 5. C on tin u ed — Actual and projected em ploym ent by industry, 1 9 5 9 -9 5
[In thousands]
Actual
Industry
Projected
1990
1959
1969
1979
1982
Educational services (private) ...................................
Nonprofit organizations ...........................................
Private households.................................................
Forestry and fishery products ...................................
Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services..................
839
1,331
2,574
60
285
1,229
1,764
2,322
55
329
1,721
2,073
1,723
83
489
1,882
2,095
1,635
84
585
2,447
2,387
1,443
73
640
Government enterprises:
Post office ............................................................
Other federal enterprises .........................................
Local government passenger transit...........................
Other state and local government enterprises..............
574
104“
71
225
732
661
152
155
87
130
541
351
Data include wage and salary workers, the self-employed, and unpaid family workers.
662
150
173
496
629
182
207
610
N ote:
of the highest annual rates of increase, 5.2 percent and 3.9
percent respectively. Other rapid gainers are medical and
dental instruments (4.2 percent), office and computing ma
chines (3.7 percent), electronic components (3.2 percent),
and engines and turbines (3.1 percent). On the other hand,
the chemical industries as a group and petroleum refining
are projected to have much lower growth rates because of
oil price effects. In fact, employment in petroleum refining
is projected to decline 1.6 percent a year.
Computers. Demand for computers and related equipment
such as data storage devices, printers, calculators, and sim
ilar items is projected to continue to boom through the
1990’s. Computer process control and computer-assisted
design and manufacture will be widespread. Purchases of
computer equipment will represent about one-fifth of all
capital expenditures by businesses, by far their largest item
of durable equipment spending. Investment, export, and
government demand for computers will soon be supple
mented by personal consumption expenditures. Foreign
competition, although projected to rise, is not expected to
significantly hamper the expansion of domestic output. Im
ports will continue to represent about 7 percent of total
output. The value of domestic production of computers and
peripheral equipment is projected to post a 6.9-percent yearly
growth rate, ranking it among the top five output gainers.
Employment in computer manufacturing is projected to
grow 3.8 percent a year. Productivity gains have typically
been very rapid in this industry, and this will continue.
Electronic components. Electronic components are expected
to become an even more integral part of consumer and
capital goods than they are now. Domestic production will
expand by 7.6 percent a year between 1982 and 1995. Im
ports are projected to grow at about the same rate, keeping
the import share of total output of electronic components at
about 14 percent. Employment is projected to rise from
561,000 in 1982 to 850,000 by 1995, a 3.2-percent yearly
gain.
32
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Low
Moderate
1995
High
Low
2,157
2,406
1,400
79
623
2,001
2,449
1,392
89
613
2,311
2,455
1,295
96
704
2,396
2,505
1,346
92
711
2,411
2,606
1,368
99
716
597
178
209
623
595
182
215
649
537
182
228
700
581
189
233
723
594
198
251
781
Moderate
High
Communication equipment. Demand for communication
equipment such as radios, televisions, telephone apparatus,
radar, laser systems, satellites, and similar items will almost
double between 1982 and 1995. New telecommunications
services required by businesses and consumers will be aug
mented by increasing defense expenditures, at least in the
earlier years. Imports are not expected to make additional
inroads into the market but rather are projected to hold a
smaller share of total output by 1995.
Employment, on the other hand, will not rise as rapidly
as output. Productivity gains have typically been rapid in
the manufacture of communications equipment, and this
trend will hold. Employment in radio and television set
production, which had suffered because of import compe
tition and slack demand for all consumer durables during
the recession, is projected to rebound and grow 1.5 percent
a year between 1982 and 1995. The 1995 level, however,
will still fall far short of the previous peak. Jobs in telephone
apparatus manufacturing are projected to grow 2.7 percent
a year, while in radio and other communications equipment,
productivity advances will limit job gains to .6 percent a
year.
Aerospace. Defense demand is also expected to boost pro
duction in the aircraft and guided missiles and space vehicles
industries. Most of this growth will occur by the mid- 1980’s,
after which real defense expenditures are projected to mod
erate sharply. Commercial aircraft manufacturers are ex
pected to meet serious competition from foreign producers,
both in their domestic and overseas markets. Output of the
aircraft industry is projected to expand 1.8 percent a year
during 1982-95, while employment grows at a .9 percent
rate.
Machinery. Other nonelectrical machinery (besides com
puters, typewriters, and other office equipment) is projected
to experience a strong rebound in demand as businesses
begin to invest in new capital equipment. The sector is
projected to enjoy a 4.3-percent average rate of output growth
between 1982 and 1995 (4.8 percent in the early years).
Growth of domestic production occurs despite substantial
import gains, because projected demand is so strong. Im
ports are expected to account for larger shares of most
nonelectrical machinery industries than they do now, but
for no industry will the share top 15 percent.
Leading the gains in domestic output will be engines and
turbines and construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.
Output of engines and turbines grows rapidly because of
expected strong export demand, while the projected rebound
in construction spurs demand for construction machinery.
The metalworking machinery industry, which produces in
dustrial robots, is projected to expand production by 3.5
percent a year through 1995, compared with declines or
marginal growth since the mid-1960’s.
Employment in nonelectrical machinery industries is pro
jected to recover from 1982’s cutbacks and resume long
term trends. Productivity gains are expected to be more rapid
than for the durable goods sector as a whole, but because
output also grows faster, there are opportunities for em
ployment recovery. Most nonelectrical machinery industries
will record new employment peaks by 1995.
employment from the 1982 level. Some food industries (dairy
products, bakery products, sugar, confectionery products,
and alcoholic beverages) will actually lose jobs, while others
(canned and frozen foods, soft drinks, meat products, grain
mill products, and other miscellaneous food items) are pro
jected to post slight job gains.
Clothing purchases are projected to grow 2.6 percent a
year between 1982 and 1995, but the share accounted for
by imports will almost double, from 11 percent in 1977 to
almost 22 percent by 1995. This shift in the site of pro
duction will limit employment gains in the industry. Jobs
are projected to increase from 1.0 million in 1982 to only
1.1 million in 1995.
Some nondurable sectors are expected to enjoy consid
erable output growth, such as drugs, chemicals, synthetic
fibers, and plastics. Output in each of these industries is
projected to grow by more than 4 percent a year. Employ
ment growth in these sectors shows a wider range because
of differing projections of productivity—jobs grow by 3.5
percent a year in plastic products (the seventh fastest of all
industries studied), but only by 1.4 percent in chemicals.
Miscellaneous services— most new jobs
Steel and other primary metals. Because of the strong growth
projected for new construction, autos, nonelectrical ma
chinery, and other industrial apparatus, the primary metals
industries are expected to expand production over the next
several years following the 1980-82 recession. However,
recovery is not expected to be complete. Competition from
foreign suppliers as well as continued substitution of alter
native materials, such as plastics or ceramics, will limit the
markets for domestic primary metals producers.
In the steel industry, which once employed 726,000 work
ers, output dropped by half over the late 1970’s and early
1980’s, and employment declined to 394,000 by 1982. Many
steel mills were closed during the 1975-82 period. Recovery
is expected, but neither production nor employment are
projected to reach prerecession levels by 1995. Further, the
gains in employment are projected to be less rapid than the
gains in output, as it is assumed that production can only
expand if new technologies such as continuous casting, the
direct reduction of iron ore, and the electric arc furnace are
used. Minimills which can specialize and use the latest'
technologies will become more important. Employment in
the steel industry is projected to reach 447,000 by 1995.
Two primary metals, copper and aluminum manufactur
ing, have a better outlook than iron and steel. Demand for
copper will be boosted by the rebound in residential con
struction, while aluminum will enjoy growth as a substitute
for steel.
Nondurable goods. Nondurable manufactured goods are
projected to experience modest growth over the next decade
and a half. Food products industries can expect a 1.9-percent
annual rate of increase in output, but little change in total
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
The miscellaneous service sector will provide the most
new job opportunities over the next decade and a half, with
about twice as many new jobs as manufacturing. These jobs
will be spread among various service industries, from med
ical care to business and professional services to amuse
ments and recreation. In sum, miscellaneous or “ other
service” industries will account for more than 31 million
jobs in 1995, almost one-fourth of total employment.
Service industries are least affected by cyclical move
ments, and the recent recession was no exception. While
declines in employment were reported for almost every other
sector, jobs in the other services sector expanded 3.7 percent
a year throughout the 1979-82 recessionary period. Of course,
job growth might have been even stronger without the eco
nomic downturn, but almost 2.4 million jobs were added
in these service industries during the period in which other
sectors experienced layoffs.
Business services. The largest industry in the “ other ser
vice” category, miscellaneous business services, will have
the most new jobs between 1982 and 1995. Employment is
projected to grow from 3.7 million in 1982 to 6.2 million
in 1995. A wide variety of services are included in this
sector, such as personnel supply, business consultants (pro
viding management services or public relations advice), jan
itorial and protective services, and computer and data
processing services. All are expected to show rapid growth.
Total output for the industry is projected to grow 5.3 percent
a year and employment, 3.9 percent. These rates, although
among the highest of all industries studied, are still lower
than the historical growth rates for the industry. Since 1958,
output growth in business services has averaged 9.4 percent
33
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • Job Outlook Through 1995
a year and employment, 7.0 percent. The slowdown is pro
jected to occur as the industry matures and the shift from
in-house services to contracting-out by businesses reaches
a saturation point.
Professional services. A related industry, miscellaneous
professional services, is expected to follow the same trends.
More than 850,000 jobs will be added to the sector between
1982 and 1995, but the rate of growth of both output and
employment is projected to be smaller than the historical
rates. This industry provides legal, engineering, architec
tural, accounting, and other professional services to busi
nesses. Employment is projected to top 3 million in 1995.
Medical care. A very significant sector in terms of both
number of jobs and rate of expansion has been the health
field. Jobs in doctors’ and dentists’ offices more than dou
bled during the 1960’s and 1970’s, rising 4.2 percent a year
to 1.5 million in 1982. Hospital employment tripled, grow
ing 5.1 percent a year between 1958 and 1982 to 3 million
jobs. The other medical services industry had the most rapid
growth— jobs in nursing homes and personal care facilities,
outpatient clinics run by health maintenance organizations
or group health associations, and drug or alcohol rehabili
tation centers, increased more than five times, with em
ployment reaching 1.7 million in 1982.
Growth in health care employment was the result of many
factors, chief among them the more widespread coverage
of private medical insurance and the introduction of gov
ernment health benefits programs such as medicare and med
icaid. The projections assume no change in current law—
that government funding will be maintained at its present
level, except for changes stemming from inflation.
Inflation in medical care costs poses the greatest uncer
tainty in the projections of medical services output and em
ployment. While the overall consumer price index has tripled
since 1965, the index for medical care services has quad
rupled. Despite these sharply increased costs, demand is
projected to be even stronger in the projection period, as
the population ages and as new, expensive technologies are
used in life-saving treatments.
Because of higher costs and the assumption of no new
government programs, it is expected that output and em
ployment in medical care services will slow from historical
rates. Doctors’ and dentists’ office jobs are projected to grow
2.2 percent a year over the 13 years through 1995, or an
increase of 500,000. By comparison, over the previous 13year period (1969-82), 700,000 jobs were added in medical
offices. Hospital employment is projected to grow 3.1 per
cent a year, from 3 million in 1982 to 4.5 million in 1995.
Jobs in other medical services will expand by 3.8 percent
a year to almost 2.7 million in 1995. Overall, the 3 million
new health care jobs projected to be added between 1982
and 1995 represent almost 12 percent of the total number
of new jobs.
34
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Growth slows in trade, government
Employment in wholesale and retail trade is projected to
grow along with the rest of the economy, increasing from
22.5 million in 1982 to 28.5 million in 1995. Because total
employment growth is slowing down, the rate of job growth
in trade is also slower than it has been historically. Retail
trade employment is projected to grow 2.0 percent a year,
compared with 2.4 percent between 1958 and 1982; jobs in
wholesale trade are projected to expand 1.4 percent an
nually, compared with 2.5 percent in the past.
The largest number of new job openings, about 1.6 mil
lion, will be in eating and drinking establishments. Other
retail firms posting large gains will be department stores,
grocery stores, new car dealers, miscellaneous shopping
goods stores (such as jewelry, books, cameras, and sporting
goods), and drug and proprietary stores. Retail shops pro
jected to actually lose jobs include mobile home dealers,
variety stores, general merchandise stores, candy stores,
dairy products stores, women’s accessory stores (such as
millinery shops), children’s wear stores, and fur shops.
In wholesale trade, the largest employment increases will
be found in establishments selling machinery and equip
ment, motor vehicles, miscellaneous nondurable goods, and
electrical goods.
Government. Employment in government is projected to
grow more slowly than private sector jobs, as has been true
since 1975, but the opposite of the expansionary 1950’s and
1960’s. The state and local sector represents most of the
slowdown, as only 1.2 million new jobs will be added over
the next 13 years, compared with 3.6 million during the
preceding 13-year period.
Although job growth is slower than in the 1960’s, it still
represents a reversal from the actual declines of the late
1970’s. In addition to tight budgets during the recession,
declining school enrollments caused many state and local
governments to reduce hiring. Beginning in 1984, however,
enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools is
projected to turn up again as the children of the baby-boom
generation advance through school, leading to a slight up
turn in employment.
Banking and transportation and utilities
The output of financial and banking services is projected
to show very large gains over the next decade and a half
with the introduction of new consumer services such as
automatic funds transfers and the more widespread use of
investment counseling. The output of the banking industry
and of credit agencies and financial brokers is projected to
grow by 4.1 percent a year.
Employment growth, on the other hand, will be very
modest. Automatic teller machines and computerized bank
ing and stock transactions will limit job gains to 1.9 percent
a year. By comparison, employment in banking grew 4.4
percent through the 1960’s and 1970’s, as the expanding
use of checking accounts created the need for large numbers
of new hires for check processing. That impetus will not
be repeated, however, as checking account use is now com
monplace, and as automatic transfers replace manual check
processing.
The transportation, communications, and public utilities
sector is not projected to contribute significantly to overall
job growth, only adding slightly more than 1 million extra
workers. However, output of this sector is projected to lead
all other sectors in growth, reflecting the strong demand for
new telecommunications services, as well as the divestiture
of the telephone company. Output of the communications
sector, which includes radio and television broadcasting in
addition to telephone and telegraph communications, is pro
jected to expand by 5.9 percent a year, compared with 2.9
percent for the economy as a whole.
Low and high alternative projections
Different industry employment levels in the low and high
alternatives are primarily the result of two factors— (1) the
unemployment rate and the size of the labor force are dif
ferent in each case than in the moderate growth projection,
leading to different levels of total employment, and (2) the
distribution of final demand is markedly different, causing
output and, therefore, employment at the industry level to
vary significantly from the base case. (See table 6.)
In the low-growth alternative, a smaller labor force and
more unemployment results in 2.3 million fewer jobs. Al
though total employment is only about 2 percent lower, at
the industry level the difference between the base case and
the low trend alternative ranges over a much broader band.
For some industries, employment is almost 10 percent lower,
while in others, it is actually higher than in the base case.
This span results from the sharp differences in final demand
and in projections of productivity.
A disproportionate share of the job difference occurs in
durable manufacturing industries because interest rates are
higher than in the base case. Only manufacturing industries
dependent on defense demand do not show this drop; defense
expenditures, as well as other federal government pur
chases, are actually higher in the low-growth scenario than
in the base case because it is assumed that the federal gov
ernment increases spending to try to stimulate the sluggish
economy. Examples of defense demand boosting output and
employment to higher levels than in the base projection are
in ordnance, guided missiles, radio and communication
equipment, electronic components, aircraft, and shipbuild
ing industries.
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T able 6. G ross national product, m oderate grow th path
and high and low alternatives
[In billions of 1972 dollars]
Component
Percent
difference
from moderate
1995
1982
Low
Moderate
High
Low
Gross national product . . . . $1,485.4 $2,148.7 $2,166.9 $2,284.6 -0.8
High
5.4
Personal consumption . .
Durables ................
Nondurables ............
Services............
970.2 1,371.1 1,412.4
139.8
223.8 240.4
364.2 449.4 468.0
466.2 697.9 704.0
Gross private investment
Equipment..............
Structures ..............
Residential..............
Inventory change . . .
194.5
112.7
53.4
37.8
-9.4
285.7
159.6
44.6
69.6
11.9
337.2
177.2
70.1
78.1
11.8
408.6
204.6
77.6
114.1
12.3
Net exports.................
Exports...................
Imports...................
28.9
147.3
118.4
148.4
267.9
119.4
85.9
260.0
174.1
23.0 72.8 -73.2
264.0 3.0 1.5
241.0 -31.4 38.4
Government.
Federal ...................
Defense..............
Nondefense ........
State and local ........
291.8
116.6
78.8
37.8
175.2
343.5
157.0
113.2
43.8
186.5
Source:
Analysis.
1,504.6 -2.9
279.8 -6.9
485.4 -4.0
739.4 -.9
6.5
16.4
3.7
5.0
-15.3 21.2
-9.9 15.5
-36.4 10.7
-10.9 46.1
.8 4.2
331.4
348.4 3.7 5.1
139.2
145.9 12.8 4.8
98.9
103.9 14.5 5.1
40.3
41.9 8.7 4.0
192.2
202.5 -3.0
5.4
1982 data are from the U S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
In addition, lower income growth results in much lower
imports, leading to instances where domestic production of
import-sensitive industries is higher in the low-growth al
ternative than in the base case. This occurs in forestry and
fishery products, nonferrous metal ores mining, chemical
and fertilizer mining, and watches and clocks.
In the high-growth alternative, many of these assumptions
are reversed. Total employment in 1995 is 2.7 million higher
than in the moderate case, based on a larger labor force and
less unemployment. Like the low-growth alternative, al
though total employment varies from the base case by about
2 percent, jobs at the industry level have a much broader
range, in some instances topping the base case by as much
as 13 percent.
Monetary policy is assumed to be less restrictive in the
high-growth alternative, resulting in a higher rate of infla
tion. Inflation, however, contributes to making imports more
attractive, and the rise in imports more than offsets increased
domestic demand in several industries. Because of imports,
domestic production in the high alternative is lower than in
the base case for iron mining, crude petroleum, sugar, con
fectionery products, apparel, leather tanning, leather prod
ucts, and steel. Employment is also correspondingly lower;
however, for sugar and confectionery products, lower pro
ductivity keeps employment levels higher than in the base
case.
Q
35
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • Job Outlook Through 1995
FOOTNOTES
‘ See the following articles in this issue: Howard N Fullerton, Jr. and
John H. Tschetter, “ The 1995 labor force: a second look” , pp. 3-10;
Arthur J. Andreassen, Norman C. Saunders, and Betty U. Su, “ The eco
nomic outlook for the 1990’s: three scenarios for economic growth” ;
pp. 11-23; and George Silvestri, John M. Lukasiewicz, and Marcus E.
Einstein, “ Occupational employment projections through 1995” , pp. 3 7 49.
2See Andreassen and others, “ The economic outlook for the 1990’s ” ,
for specific assumptions.
3See Fullerton and Tschetter, “ The 1995 labor force” .
4 See Richard Riche. Daniel Hecker, and John Burgan, “ High technol
ogy today and tomorrow; a small slice of the employment p ie,” pp. 5 0 58, this issue.
The decade of the 1980’s
The maturing products of the baby boom continue to dominate the agestructure changes— the bulk of the bulge will have aged to between 35
and 44 years of age by 1990. Indeed, the 11-million person increase in
this cohort will account for over 60 percent of the national growth increment
between 1980 and 1990. This will undoubtedly place enormous stress on
the Nation’s economic system to satisfy the mid-level career aspirations
of this fabled generation. Ever greater pressures for entrance into the
executive suite will continue, a phenomenon only partially alleviated by
a decline in the 55-to-64-years-of-age group.
In contrast to the expansion represented by maturing baby boomers will
be the sharp contraction of the 15-to-24-years-of-age segment by approx
imately 7.7 million people; the baby bust, then, will finally be impacting
American society in full force. Who will inherit— and support— the in
frastructure built for the baby-boom generation? Between 1980 and 1990,
it is entirely possible that the college-age population will decline by over
18 percent, fostering significant adjustments for higher-education institu
tions and services. At the same time, the numbers of new entrants to the
labor force will shrink over the decade (ignoring labor-force-participation
rates), alleviating the entry-level job pressures that characterized the 1970’s.
The entry-level housing built for a larger generation may provide a re
dundancy of certain forms of shelter as the decade evolves.
Concurrently, with the stabilization in size of the 5-to-14-years-of-age
sector— which will remain at the 35-million-person level throughout the
decade of the 1980’s— the Nation’s elementary and high schools will face
diminished downward demographic pressure (although spatial population
shifts will exert differential effects on a geographic base). In the aggregate,
the three-decade-long stress of a boom-bust cycle should be greatly alle
viated.
Once again, the elderly are a significant growth sector with a net increase
of 4.3 million people expected— or roughly 450,000 persons a year reach
ing the nominal retirement age and surviving between 1980 and 1990. And
the under-5-years-of-age population will begin to grow in size. Thus, a
baby-boom “ echo” will become etched into the Nation’s age structure.
But this will not preserve the United States population as a whole from a
decided increase in median age to above 32 years.
— G eorge Sternlieb, James W. H ughes ,
and Connie O. Hughes , Demographic Trends and
Economic Reality: Planning and Markets in the ’80s
(New Brunswick, N .J., Rutgers, The State University
of New Jersey, Center for Urban Policy Research,
1982), pp. 15 and 17.
36
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Occupational employment projections
through 1995
During 1982-95, health care will continue
to be an expanding field o f work, typists
are apt to decline due to word processors,
and high technology should spur the growth o f
occupations such as engineers and computer personnel
but dim the outlook fo r others, especially drafters
G e o r g e T . S i l v e s t r i , Jo h n M . L u k a s i e w i c z ,
and
M a r c u s E . E in s t e in
The most recent occupational projections by the Bureau of
Labor Statistics suggest that a wide range of job skills will
be needed in 1995. Employment in jobs requiring a college
education or specialized post-secondary technical training
are expected to increase significantly between 1982 and
1995. However, many jobs that do not require post-sec
ondary training are also expected to expand significantly.
For example, the projected rapid increase in demand for
medical services will require large numbers of nursing aides
and orderlies in addition to highly trained medical practi
tioners.
On the other hand, employment growth in many occu
pations will be affected by technological change through the
mid-1990’s. For example, word processing equipment will
slow the employment growth of typists, and industrial robots
will reduce the growth in employment of welders, produc
tion painters, and material moving occupations. However,
despite widespread technological advances, employment will
continue to advance in most traditional fields from 1982 to
1995. More workers will be needed to drive trucks to deliver
goods, to clean a growing number of buildings, to perform
health and personal services and provide police and fire
The authors are economists in the Division of Occupational Outlook. Bu
reau of Labor Statistics.
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protection for our increasing population, and to maintain
and repair a larger stock of automobiles, appliances, and
factory equipment.
Rapid expansion of high technology will spur the growth
of scientists, engineers, technicians, and computer special
ists. They will be required to design, develop, and use hightechnology products such as computers, scientific and med
ical instruments, communication equipment, and robots.
Employment in these occupations has generally grown faster
than the economy as a whole and most are expected to
continue to do so. However, even in some of these fields,
technological advances will have an impact on reducing
employment needs. For example, advances in computeraided design technology are expected to severely limit the
employment growth of drafters.
The pattern of industrial employment growth also has an
important impact on expected changes in occupational struc
ture, because many occupations are concentrated by indus
try. Therefore, the information on occupational growth
patterns presented in this article cannot be fully understood
apart from the data and analyses dealing with economic and
industry growth trends presented elsewhere in this issue of
the Review. Indeed, the methodologies used to develop both
the industry and occupational projections are very closely
related.1
37
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • Occupational Employment Projections To 1995
Table 1.
C ivilian em ploym ent in occupations with 25,000 w orkers or m ore, actual 1979, 1982, and projected 1995
Total employment (in thousands)
Occupation
Total, all occupations.................................................
Professional, technical, and related workers ..............
Engineers .........................................................
Aero-astronautic engineers ...............................
Chemical engineers .........................................
Civil engineers ...............................................
Electrical engineers .........................................
Industrial engineers.........................................
Mechanical engineers.......................................
Petroleum engineers .......................................
Percent change
1995
1979
1982
Low
trend
Moderate
trend
1979-95
High
trend
101,206 101,510 124,846 127,110 129,902
15,758 16,584 21,545 21,775 22,325
1,177
1,204
1,787
1,788
1,831
44
44
65
62
62
58
56
79
80
82
156
155
226
228
236
300
320
531
528
540
171
160
226
227
232
314
216
209
318
327
16
26
31
32
30
Low
trend
Moderate
trend
1982-95
High
trend
Low
trend
Moderate
trend
High
trend
23
37
52
47
37
45
77
32
45
95
26
38
52
39
40
46
76
32
47
98
28
42
56
41
43
51
80
36
51
89
23
30
48
49
41
45
66
41
50
19
25
31
49
41
43
47
65
42
52
22
28
35
52
42
47
52
69
45
56
16
Life and physical scientists...................................
Biological scientists.........................................
Chemists........................................................
Geologists ......................................................
Mathematical specialists.......................................
Engineering and science technicians.......................
Civil engineering technicians ......................... .
Drafters..........................................................
Electrical and electronic technicians....................
Industrial engineering technicians.......................
Mechanical engineering technicians.....................
Surveyors .....................................................
247
47
87
38
48
1,227
32
307
350
33
47
55
271
52
89
49
48
1,243
35
302
366
27
48
44
343
71
107
60
63
1,649
56
309
585
36
72
61
342
70
108
60
62
1,661
58
318
589
35
72
62
348
73
111
59
63
1,705
60
327
602
37
74
64
39
50
22
60
31
34
77
1
67
9
54
11
38
48
24
60
29
35
82
3
68
7
55
13
41
53
27
57
32
39
88
7
72
11
58
17
27
38
21
24
31
33
59
2
60
31
51
40
26
36
22
24
29
34
64
5
61
29
52
43
29
41
25
21
32
37
69
8
64
33
55
47
Medical workers, except technicians .......................
Chiropractors .................................................
Dentists..........................................................
Dietitians........................................................
Nurses, registered...........................................
Optometrists....................................................
Pharmacists...................................................
Physicians ......................................................
Therapists ......................................................
Respiratory therapists...................................
Occupational therapists .................................
Physical therapists.......................................
Speech pathologists and audiologists..............
Veterinarians .................................................
2,231
22
161
41
1,165
32
143
436
186
42
22
37
40
34
2,463
25
173
44
1,312
28
151
479
202
46
25
43
42
36
3,471
33
213
61
1,943
35
188
640
291
67
40
68
53
48
3,491
32
213
62
1,954
34
192
642
294
67
40
69
54
48
3,600
32
218
64
2,022
35
196
663
302
70
41
70
55
48
56
46
32
48
67
9
31
47
56
61
85
84
31
42
56
45
33
50
68
8
34
47
58
62
86
85
33
41
61
45
36
55
74
9
37
52
62
68
92
89
36
43
41
28
23
38
48
26
24
34
44
44
58
57
27
31
42
27
24
40
49
25
27
34
45
45
60
58
29
30
46
27
27
44
54
26
30
38
50
50
64
62
32
32
Health technologists and technicians.......................
Clinical laboratory technologists and technicians . .
Medical laboratory technicians .......................
Medical laboratory technologists ....................
Dental hygienists.............................................
Physical therapy assistants ...............................
Radiologic technologists...................................
Radiologic technologists and nuclear medicine
technicians .............................................
X-ray technicians .........................................
Surgical technicians.........................................
574
195
60
92
58
27
97
627
209
57
103
69
33
110
891
291
70
150
97
55
156
898
292
71
150
99
55
157
932
303
73
156
104
56
164
55
49
16
63
69
103
61
57
50
18
64
72
104
63
62
55
22
70
81
109
69
42
39
22
46
40
67
42
43
40
23
46
43
68
43
49
45
28
52
50
72
49
32
65
31
36
74
35
50
106
48
50
107
49
52
111
51
60
62
58
60
64
58
66
70
65
40
43
39
39
45
40
45
51
45
Technicians, excluding health, science, and engineering
Airplane pilots..................................................
Library technicians...........................................
Computer specialists...........................................
Programmers ...................................................
Systems analysts...............................................
Social scientists ...................................................
Economists ......................................................
Psychologists...................................................
338
78
28
447
231
216
175
29
69
364
80
29
521
266
254
206
30
83
451
102
32
935
465
469
267
39
109
453
103
32
943
471
471
267
38
110
465
104
33
960
480
480
273
39
112
33
31
15
109
101
118
52
35
59
34
32
16
111
104
119
52
32
60
38
34
19
115
107
123
56
36
63
24
28
9
79
75
85
30
29
32
24
29
10
81
77
85
30
27
33
28
31
13
84
80
89
33
30
36
Teachers ..............................................................
Adult education teachers.....................................
College and university faculty...............................
Dance instructors .............................................
Graduate assistants ...........................................
Preschool, kindergarten, elementary schoolteachers
Preschool teachers.........................................
Kindergarten and elementary schoolteachers
Secondary schoolteachers...................................
Vocational education teachers .............................
3,967
107
686
23
138
1,668
285
1,383
1,083
99
3,980
125
744
27
140
1,647
281
1,366
1,024
98
4,612
164
619
35
122
2,226
387
1,839
1,128
139
4,706
165
632
35
124
2,274
397
1,877
1,152
143
4,806
170
646
36
127
2,322
404
1,918
1,177
146
16
53
-10
51
-12
33
36
33
4
41
19
54
-8
52
-10
36
39
36
6
45
21
58
-6
57
-8
39
42
39
9
48
16
31
-17
31
-13
35
38
35
10
42
18
32
-15
32
-11
38
41
37
13
46
21
36
-13
36
-9
41
44
40
15
49
Selected writers, artists, and entertainers ................
Actors..............................................................
Commercial and graphic artists and designers........
Designers ........................................................
Musicians ........................................................
Painters, artistic ...............................................
Photographers .............................................
Public relations specialists...................................
Radio and TV announcers and newscasters............
Announcers....................................................
Reporters and correspondents .............................
Sports instructors .............................................
Writers and editors ...........................
251
(1)
119
166
134
21
86
85
48
40
49
d)
114
301
34
133
180
124
25
86
90
55
46
51
53
120
398
48
166
247
153
29
101
14
.70
58
64
63
160
406
49
167
253
155
29
102
115
70
58
66
64
162
417
52
169
258
160
29
104
118
70
58
67
66
165
58
d)
40
49
15
43
18
35
46
44
30
(D
40
62
(D
41
52
16
42
18
36
47
45
34
(1)
42
66
(D
42
55
19
42
21
39
48
46
36
(1)
45
32
40
25
38
23
17
18
27
27
25
26
20
34
35
43
26
41
25
16
18
29
28
26
29
21
35
38
51
27
44
28
16
21
32
29
27
31
25
38
38
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table 1.
C ontinued— C ivilian em ploym ent in occupations
Percent change
Total employment (in thousands)
Occupation
1979
1982
Other professional and technical workers...........................
Accountants and auditors ...........................................
Architects ................................................................
Assessors ................................................................
Buyers, retail and wholesale trade.................................
Clergy......................................................................
Cost estimators..........................................................
Counselors................................................................
Directors, religious education and activities.....................
Employment interviewers ...........................................
4,389
830
75
29
251
(1)
94
140
36
59
4,636
856
84
28
256
317
92
148
43
57
5,778
1,181
116
30
321
327
131
159
44
85
5,850
1,200
118
31
331
332
134
163
45
86
Foresters and conservationists.....................................
Law clerks................................................................
Lawyers ..................................................................
Legal assistants ........................................................
Librarians ................................................................
Personnel and labor relations specialists .......................
Purchasing agents and buyers .....................................
Group recreation workers ...........................................
29
35
393
34
147
187
178
122
31
40
465
45
151
203
177
122
35
55
618
85
167
249
225
148
34
56
624
88
170
250
225
150
Social workers ..........................................................
Caseworkers..........................................................
Community organization workers...............................
Special agents, insurance ...........................................
Tax examiners, collectors, and revenue agents ..............
Tax preparers............................................................
Underwriters ............................................................
328
275
53
23
48
28
73
345
292
52
31
47
32
76
409
348
61
44
54
45
90
416
353
63
44
52
46
92
Managers, officials, and proprietors.....................................
Auto parts department managers.....................................
Auto service department managers................................ .
Construction inspectors, public administration ..................
Health and regulatory inspectors .....................................
Postmasters and mail superintendents .............................
Railroad conductors ......................................................
Restaurant, cafe, and bar managers.................................
Sales managers, retail trade ...........................................
Assistant principals........................................................
Principals ....................................................................
Store managers ............................................................
Wholesalers..................................................................
9,152
48
60
41
103
28
35
528
271
37
81
938
241
9,532
44
54
39
101
28
27
574
271
38
82
971
247
12,008
61
76
46
111
23
17
706
352
44
93
1,218
298
Salesworkers ..................................................................
Real estate agents and brokers .................. ....................
Real estate brokers ...................................................
Sales agents, sales representatives, real estate ..............
Real estate appraisers ...................................................
Sales agents and brokers, Insurance.................................
Sales representatives, nontechnical . , ...............................
Sales representatives, technical .......................................
Salesclerks ..................................................................
Security salesworkers ...................................................
Travel agents................................................................
6,780
332
39
293
31
316
573
1,329
2,867
60
50
6,967
337
42
296
32
361
583
1,320
2,916
78
62
Clerical workers................................................................
Adjustment clerks..........................................................
Bank tellers..................................................................
New accounts tellers .................................................
Tellers......................................................................
Bookkeepers and accounting clerks .................................
Accounting clerks ......................................................
Bookkeepers, hand ...................................................
Cashiers......................................................................
18,497
38
466
51
415
1,717
722
996
1,518
Claims adjusters............................................................
Claims clerks................................................................
Claims examiners, insurance...........................................
Clerical supervisors........................................................
Collectors, bill and account.............................................
Court clerks............................................... ..............
Credit clerks, banking and insurance.................................
Customer service representatives.....................................
Desk clerks, except bowling floor.....................................
Dispatchers, police, fire, and ambulance...........................
Dispatchers, vehicle service or work.................................
Eligibility workers, welfare .............................................
File clerks....................................................................
General clerks, office.....................................................
Insurance clerks, medical...............................................
Library assistants ..........................................................
Loan closers ................................................................
Mail carriers and postal clerks.........................................
Postal mail carriers ...................................................
Postal service clerks .................................................
67
66
39
434
88
28
50
86
82
51
87
34
293
2,377
78
80
(D
539
234
306
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
1979-95
1995
Low
trend
Moderate
trend
High
trend
Low
trend
Moderate
trend
1982-95
High
trend
Low
trend
Moderate
trend
High
trend
5,999
1,229
121
32
336
344
137
167
46
87
32
42
55
3
28
(D
39
13
22
44
33
44
57
4
32
(D
42
16
24
45
37
48
61
7
34
(D
46
19
28
47
25
38
38
9
26
3
41
7
3
51
26
40
40
11
30
5
45
10
5
52
29
44
’ 43
14
31
8
48
12
9
55
36
59
638
91
174
257
232
154
20
60
57
150
13
33
26
20
15
63
59
158
15
34
26
22
21
70
62
168
18
38
30
26
14
37
33
88
11
23
27
21
9
39
34
94
. 13
23
27
23
15
45
37
102
15
27
31
27
428
364
65
45
54
49
93
25
26
15
90
13
60
24
27
28
18
92
8
65
26
30
32
22
95
13
75
28
19
19
17
43
16
38
19
21
21
20
45
10
43
21
24
24
24
48
16
52
23
12,212
63
78
46
108
24
18
711
362
45
95
1,262
302
12,467
64
80
47
113
25
20
715
365
46
97
1,285
303
31
27
27
12
8
-20
-50
34
30
18
15
30
23
33
31
31
12
5
-14
-47
35
34
21
17
35
25
36
34
34
15
10
-12
-43
35
35
23
20
37
26
26
37
39
17
9
-20
-36
23
30
15
14
26
20
28
42
44
17
7
-14
-32
24
33
18
16
30
22
31
45
47
21
11
-12
-27
25
35
20
19
32
23
8,535
449
53
396
47
447
724
1,652
3,472
106
86
8,771
450
53
396
47
452
743
1,707
3,601
107
88
8,911
453
53
400
48
458
749
1,730
3,670
109
88
26
35
37
35
53
42
26
24
21
77
74
29
36
37
35
54
43
30
28
26
78
78
31
37
38
37
56
45
31
30
28
81
78
23
33
28
34
48
24
24
25
19
36
40
26
33
28
34
49
25
27
29
23
36
43
28
34
29
35
51
27
28
31
26
39
43
19,049
36
539
67
471
1,713
756
957
1,570
23,533
48
686
79
607
1,943
861
1,081
2,235
23,998
49
693
80
613
1,985
876
1,109
2,314
24,538
50
703
81
622
2,027
895
1,132
2,362
27
26
47
55
46
13
19
9
47
30
30
49
57
48
16
21
11
52
33
33
51
59
50
18
24
14
56
24
34
27
18
29
13
14
13
42
26
38
29
19
30
16
16
16
47
29
40
30
21
32
18
18
18
50
66
66
47
467
94
27
50
89
88
48
90
32
295
2,348
86
81
45
541
234
307
99
94
61
618
133
29
76
120
107
52
111
32
316
2,990
137
94
63
439
206
233
98
93
62
628
135
29
76
124
107
53
113
32
321
3,044
139
96
64
474
223
252
101
95
63
641
137
30
78
125
109
55
116
33
329
3,113
145
98
65
485
228
257
47
42
56
42
51
2
52
40
31
4
27
-7
8
26
77
17
(1)
-19
-12
-24
47
41
59
45
53
3
54
44
32
6
30
-5
10
51
45
62
47
55
6
57
45
34
8
33
-3
12
31
86
22
(1)
-10
-3
-16
49
41
29
32
42
6
53
35
22
10
23
0
7
27
60
16
40
-19
-12
49
40
31
35
44
8
54
39
23
12
26
2
9
30
62
18
41
-12
-5
-18
53
44
34
37
46
11
57
40
25
14
29
5
12
33
69
21
28
79
19
(D
-12
-5
-18
-2 4
44
-10
-3
-16
39
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • Occupational Employment Projections To 1995
Table 1.
C o n tinued— C ivilian em ploym ent in occupations
Total employment (in thousands)
Occupation
Percent change
1995
1979
1982
Low
trend
Moderate
trend
1979-95
High
trend
1982-95
Low
trend
Moderate
trend
High
trend
Low
trend
Mail clerks ..................................................................
Messengers, except bank...............................................
Meter readers, utilities....................................................
Office machine operators ...............................................
Bookkeeping, billing machine operators .....................
Proof machine operators .........................................
Computer operating personnel .....................................
Computer operators ...............................................
Data entry operators...............................................
Peripheral EDP equipment operators .........................
Duplicating machine operators.....................................
88
42
29
893
174
46
548
190
319
40
31
100
47
31
936
172
47
580
211
320
49
38
132
60
37
1,179
218
59
727
366
282
79
44
131
61
38
1,196
223
59
737
371
286
80
45
135
63
38
1,220
227
60
752
378
292
82
46
51
42
30
32
25
28
33
93
-12
99
41
50
45
31
34
28
29
34
95
-10
102
43
54
48
33
37
31
31
37
99
-8
106
46
33
28
22
26
26
24
25
74
-12
61
16
Order clerks ................................................................
Payroll and timekeeping clerks .......................................
Personnel clerks............................................................
Policy change clerks ......................................................
Procurement clerks........................................................
Production clerks ..........................................................
Raters ........................................................................
Receptionists................................................................
258
175
98
25
49
212
53
362
265
202
103
28
47
201
53
387
329
265
132
30
60
260
68
565
337
269
131
31
60
262
69
576
342
277
135
31
62
268
70
594
28
51
35
18
23
23
28
56
31
54
34
20
22
24
30
59
33
58
38
22
27
27
32
64
Reservation agents and transportation ticket clerks ............
Reservation agents ....................................................
Ticket agents ............................................................
Secretaries and stenographers.........................................
Secretaries................................................................
Stenographers ..........................................................
Typists........................................................................
Shipping and receiving clerks .........................................
Shipping packers ..........................................................
Statement clerks............................................................
112
55
52
2,624
2,342
283
980
380
356
32
108
53
49
2,711
2,441
270
990
365
340
34
108
54
48
3,355
3,108
247
1,136
420
394
44
110
55
49
3,410
3,161
250
1,145
431
403
44
112
56
50
3,498
3,243
256
1,175
439
410
45
-4
-2
28
33
-13
16
11
11
39
-2
0
-5
30
35
-12
17
13
13
40
Statistical clerks............................................................
Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse ...........................
Survey workers ...............................................
Switchboard operators/receptionists .................................
Teachers' aides ...................................................
Telephone operators ......................................................
Switchboard operators ...............................................
Central office operators...............................................
Directory assistance operators .....................................
Town clerks................................................................
83
831
42
217
442
319
175
107
37
28
98
831
53
107
463
318
172
109
38
26
112
961
78
279
579
337
211
84
42
29
114
987
78
285
593
343
213
87
43
29
116
1,005
79
292
606
349
218
87
43
30
36
16
86
29
31
5
20
-21
13
3
12,359
3,163
43
150
1,008
107
53
556
80
54
26
11,591
2,895
47
111
863
87
53
542
79
53
26
14,476
3,725
66
148
1,095
122
73
704
100
66
33
14,769
3,777
67
150
1,110
125
74
715
101
67
34
15,099
3,841
68
153
1,128
127
75
730
103
68
35
37
105
34
71
369
398
111
41
93
33
61
362
388
102
53
126
44
83
443
512
128
55
130
45
85
444
518
129
4,039
175
107
61
159
871
27
49
d)
175
47
113
3 ,936c
5,004
220
132
71
191
1,134
38
47
106
216
59
154
77
25
40
366
733
26
108
53
83
26
41
93
27
50
416
870
36
118
94
Craft and related workers...................................
Construction craftworkers.................................
Insulation workers.....................................
Bricklayers....................................................
Carpenters.............................................
Cement masons .......................................
Dry wall applicators...............................
Electricians .....................................
Floor covering installers ...........................
Carpet cutters, carpet layers...........................
Floor layers...........................................
Glaziers.........................................
Ironworkers ...............................
Reinforcing-iron workers .........................
Structural steel workers.........................
Painters, construction and maintenance..........
Plumbers and pipefitters.......................
Roofers.......................................
Mechanics, repairers, and installers ..............
Air conditioning, refrigeration, and heating mechanics . . . .
Aircraft mechanics...............................
Gas and electric appliance repairers..................
Automotive body repairers............
Automotive mechanics ................
Coin machine servicers and repairers . . . .
Central office repairers .........................
Computer service technicians.......................
Diesel mechanics.........................................
Cable splicers...........................................
Line installers, repairers ...........................
Engineering equipment mechanics.........................
Farm equipment mechanics.........................
Instrument repairers.............................
Industrial machinery repairers .......................
Maintenance repairers, general utility............
Marine mechanics and repairers..............
Millwrights...............................
Office machine repairers.....................
40
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
168
108
62
155
844
31
50
55
173
48
127
330
694
26
91
56
Moderate
trend
High
trend
31
31 .
24
28
29
25
27
76
-11
63
17
35
34
26
30
32
27
30
79
-9
66
19
24
31
29
8
27
29
29
46
27
34
28
10
26
30
31
49
29
37
32
12
31
33
33
54
-1
■J
-3
33
38
-10
20
16
15
42
0
2
-3
24
27
-8
15
15
16
30
2
4
-1
26
29
-7
16
18
19
32
4
5
1
29
33
-5
19
20
21
34
37
19
87
32
34
8
22
-19
17
5
41
21
89
35
37
9
24
-18
17
7
15
16
46
35
25
6
23
-23
11
10
16
19
46
38
28
8
24
-20
15
12
18
21
48
41
31
10
27
-20
16
14
17
18
53
-1
9
14
36
27
25
23
30
20
19
56
0
10
17
39
29
27
25
32
22
21
59
2
12
19
41
31
29
26
35
25
29
41
34
27
41
36
30
26
25
28
27
30
44
36
29
44
39
32
29
28
30
30
33
46
38
31
46
41
35
30
29
33
56
133
46
87
449
528
131
44
20
29
16
20
29
15
48
23
32
19
21
30
16
51
26
35
22
22
33
18
31
35
33
36
22
32
25
35
39
36
40
23
34
27
37
42
39
44
24
36
28
5,107
223
128
72
196
1,168
39
49
108
222
60
157
5,223
228
131
74
201
1,195
40
49
108
226
61
159
24
25
23
17
20
30
43
-4
(1)
24
26
37
26
27
19
20
*23
34
47
-1
27
28
39
29
30
22
23
26
37
52
0
(1)
30
30
41
27
31
22
14
23
34
24
-6
93
25
24
21
30
33
19
17
26
38
28
2
97
28
25
23
33
36
2J
20
30
42
32
2
98
31
27
25
94
27
51
425
887
36
121
95
96
28
53
438
908
36
124
96
21
8
25
14
19
36
10
78
22
10
27
16
21
36
12
82
24
10
31
20
24
36
15
83
12
4
22
26
25
35
30
68
13
5
24
29
28
35
15
6
27
-1
(
1)
33
72
33
31
36
36
73
T able 1.
C ontinued— C ivilian em ploym ent in occupations
Percent change
Total employment (in thousands)
Occupation
1982
1979
Moderate
trend
Low
trend
1982-95
1979-95
1995
Low
trend
High
trend
Moderate
trend
High
trend
Low
trend
Moderate
trend
High
trend
Radio and television service technicians
Installers, repairers, section maintainers
Station installers.............................
71
73
58
80
75
59
101
97
69
102
100
72
105
100
72
42
33
20
45
37
24
48
38
25
25
28
18
27
32
21
30
33
22
Metalworking craftworkers, except mechanics
Boilermakers .....................................
Machinists.........................................
Machine tool setters, metalworking........
Molders, metal ...................................
Sheet-metal workers and tinsmiths ........
Tool and die makers ...........................
941
45
239
65
34
213
176
818
40
220
55
25
188
152
995
42
271
67
29
248
179
1 ,0 1 9
43
278
68
29
252
184
1 ,0 5 1
44
287
70
30
260
190
6
-6
13
2
-1 4
16
2
8
-5
16
4
-1 2
18
5
12
-2
20
7
-9
22
8
22
6
23
22
13
32
18
25
8
26
25
16
34
21
29
11
30
28
20
38
25
Printing trades craftworkers ..........
Bookbinders.............................
Typesetters and compositors
Lithographers and photoengravers
Letter press operators ..............
Offset lithographic press operators
Press operators and plate printers .
382
29
103
66
33
86
37
393
30
104
67
34
88
42
429
34
99
83
34
107
44
447
36
97
87
36
113
45
457
37
99
89
37
115
47
12
16
-9
26
4
24
19
17
22
-6
33
9
30
23
20
24
-4
35
11
33
27
9
14
-1 0
23
1
22
5
14
20
-7
29
6
28
8
16
23
-5
32
8
31
12
3 ,8 3 3
64
1 ,2 9 5
79
127
48
35
30
443
468
3 ,5 4 9
65
1 ,2 0 0
78
105
51
31
37
384
410
4 ,3 2 4
73
1 ,4 8 2
95
128
63
38
40
480
520
4 ,4 1 9
76
1 ,5 1 9
96
132
64
39
40
490
529
4 ,5 2 7
78
1 ,5 5 3
99
134
65
40
42
500
543
13
15
15
20
1
31
9
33
8
11
15
19
17
22
4
32
12
34
11
13
18
22
20
25
6
35
15
39
13
16
22
12
24
22
22
25
22
7
25
27
24
17
27
24
25
26
25
8
28
29
28
19
30
27
27
28
29
12
30
32
26
49
27
61
55
119
40
30
30
38
27
58
54
116
38
28
33
37
37
60
72
151
41
30
34
39
38
61
75
152
42
31
35
42
39
62
77
157
43
32
26
-2 6
38
-2
31
27
2
2
29
-2 1
43
-1
36
28
4
4
32
-1 5
45
2
40
31
7
7
11
-4
39
3
32
30
9
9
13
3
43
4
37
31
10
10
17
10
46
7
41
35
13
13
1 4 ,0 3 9
1 ,4 5 9
33
361
99
281
29
202
38
1 2 ,9 9 5
1 ,3 1 3
33
307
99
286
29
170
37
1 5 ,0 4 4
1 ,6 2 5
28
363
131
365
43
210
50
1 5 ,4 1 9
1 ,6 4 6
26
379
133
362
43
214
50
1 5 ,8 0 9
1 ,7 0 2
26
398
137
371
44
222
52
7
11
-1 4
1
32
30
48
4
33
10
13
-1 9
5
34
29
49
6
31
13
17
-2 0
10
38
32
52
10
35
16
24
-1 5
18
33
28
45
23
36
19
25
-2 1
23
34
27
46
25
34
22
30
-2 1
30
38
30
49
30
39
37
38
30
54
70
54
59
1 ,7 2 6
36
38
38
27
50
64
58
57
1 ,4 9 2
32
39
44
30
51
68
78
62
1 ,7 6 7
34
41
44
31
52
69
79
63
1 ,8 1 3
35
42
45
31
54
74
82
64
1 ,8 7 4
36
8
17
2
-6
-3
45
5
2
-4
13
17
4
-4
-1
47
6
5
-1
15
19
3
0
5
52
8
9
2
5
16
13
2
5
35
9
18
7
10
17
14
4
7
37
10
21
11
12
18
14
8
14
42
12
26
13
1 ,0 7 0
136
138
159
68
193
73
41
914
115
118
137
61
169
66
34
1 ,0 8 8
137
126
155
68
217
94
43
1 ,1 1 4
139
129
159
69
220
95
44
1 ,1 5 3
144
133
164
71
229
99
45
2
1
4
3
-7
0
1
14
30
8
8
6
3
4
19
35
11
19
19
7
14
12
29
42
25
22
21
10
16
13
31
44
27
26
25
13
20
17
36
49
31
181
49
32
548
147
42
27
490
167
51
•32
579
173
53
33
595
180
55
34
615
6
-5
8
2
8
-1
12
6
12
14
22
18
18
18
27
23
21
22
32
27
26
67
224
560
41
118
89
902
594
88
94
242
548
36
101
75
804
533
78
78
219
616
51
115
91
869
561
84
80
229
637
53
118
93
882
567
85
80
234
654
55
122
96
873
556
83
17
-2
10
24
-3
2
-4
-5
-4
20
2
14
28
0
4
-2
-4
-3
19
4
17
32
3
8
-3
-6
-5
-1 6
-9
12
41
14
21
8
5
8
-1 4
-5
16
46
17
24
10
7
9
-1 5
-4
19
51
21
28
9
4
7
145
128
152
155
158
4
7
8
19
22
24
47
42
48
50
51
4
7
9
16
19
21
Other craft and related workers ..................
Bakers ...............................................
Supervisors of blue-collar workers ..........
Cabinetmakers .....................................
Crane, derrick, and hoist operators..........
Dental lab technicians.............................
Opticians, dispensing and optical mechanics
Furniture upholsterers ...........................
Heavy equipment operators....................
Inspectors ...........................................
Jewelers .................... ..........................
Locomotive engineers...............................
Merchandise displayers and window trimmers
Stationary engineers.................................
Alteration tailors .....................................
Testers .................................................
Sewage plant operators ...........................
Water treatment plant operators................
Operatives ...............................................
Assembler occupations ...........................
Aircraft structure assemblers................
Assemblers .......................................
Electrical machinery equipment assemblers
Electrical and electronic assemblers........
Instrument assemblers.........................
Machine assemblers.............................
Wlrers, electronic ...............................
Bindery workers, assembly..............
Laundry operators, small establishment
Pressers, hand...............................
Pressers, machine .........................
Pressers, machine laundry..............
Washers, machine and starchers . . . .
Meatcutters and butchers................
Metalworking operatives..................
Electroplators.............................
Machine tool operators.........................................
Drill press and boring machine operators ............
Grinding and abrading machine operators, metal . .
Lathe machine operators, metal ........................
Milling and planing machine operators ................
Machine tool operators, combination ..................
Machine tool operators, numerical control............
Machine tool operators, tool room......................
Punch press operators, metal............................
Power brake and bending machine operators, metal
Shear and slitter operators, metal ......................
Welders and flamecutters .....................................
Roustabouts ............................................................
Baggers ..................................................................
Production packagers ...............................................
Painters, automotive .................................................
Painters, production .................................................
Sawyers ..................................................................
Sewers and stitchers......................., ........................
Sewing machine operatives, regular equipment, garment
Sewing machine operatives, special equipment, garment
Sewing machine operatives, regular equipment,
nongarment .....................................................
Sewing machine operatives, special equipment,
nongarment .....................................................
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
-9
-2
-1
13
28
6
-8
4
-2
-4
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • Occupational Employment Projections To 1995
T able 1.
C ontinued— Civilian em ploym ent in occupations
Total employment (In thousands)
Percent change
1995
Occupation
1979
1982
Low
trend
Moderate
trend
1979-95
High
trend
1982-95
Low
trend
Moderate
trend
High
trend
Low
trend
Moderate
trend
High
trend
Textile operatives ........................................................
Spinners, frame .....................................................
Weavers ................................................................
Transport equipment operatives.....................................
Ambulance drivers and ambulance attendants ..............
Busdrivers..............................................................
Busdrivers, local and intercity.................................
Busdrivers, school ...............................................
368
31
36
3 ,6 9 4
26
443
216
226
312
26
30
3 ,5 5 1
28
473
229
244
345
25
31
4 ,1 8 1
34
537
249
288
352
25
31
4 ,2 8 7
35
551
257
295
359
25
31
4 ,3 8 7
36
572
271
301
-6
-2 1
-1 4
13
29
21
15
27
-5
-2 0
-1 3
16
32
24
19
30
-3
-1 8
-1 2
19
38
29
25
33
11
-5
3
18
23
13
9
18
13
-4
4
21
26
17
12
21
15
-2
6
24
32
21
18
23
Chauffeurs..............................................................
Forklift and tow motor operatives ...............................
Parking attendants....................................................
Railroad brake operators...........................................
Sailors and deckhands .............................................
Taxi drivers ............................................................
Truckdriving occupations .........................................
Delivery and route workers.....................................
Truckdrivers ........................................................
42
4 21
36
78
33
72
2 ,5 0 6
813
1 ,6 9 3
48
376
37
60
32
64
2 ,4 0 2
797
1 ,6 0 4
61
433
37
50
33
52
2 ,9 0 9
924
1 ,9 8 5
63
445
38
54
34
52
2 ,9 8 0
9 51
2 ,0 2 9
65
458
40
58
35
53
3 ,0 3 5
967
2 ,0 6 8
44
3
3
-3 5
0
-2 8
16
14
17
48
6
6
-3 1
3
-2 8
19
17
20
53
9
10
-2 6
5
-2 6
21
19
22
27
15
1
-1 6
3
-2 0
21
16
24
30
18
4
-1 0
7
-1 9
24
19
26
34
22
8
-4
8
-1 7
26
21
29
4 ,1 4 5
54
130
406
46
3 ,8 0 5
61
107
388
44
4 ,4 1 3
66
134
430
45
4 ,5 4 4
66
137
4 51
45
4 ,6 6 6
66
142
462
47
6
23
3
6
-2
10
22
6
11
-1
13
23
9
14
2
16
8
26
11
1
19
8
29
16
2
23
9
33
19
6
45
73
47
42
71
39
39
75
49
40
78
50
41
80
52
-1 4
3
4
-1 1
7
6
-9
9
10
-9
6
25
-6
10
28
-3
13
32
99
92
97
100
105
-2
1
6
5
9
14
153
55
27
146
54
26
172
64
31
178
66
31
183
68
32
13
16
14
16
19
17
20
22
21
18
19
18
22
23
22
25
26
25
All other operatives......................................................
Dressmakers, except factory .....................................
Filers, grinders, buffers, and chippers.........................
Fuel pump attendants and lubricators .........................
Stationary boiler firers .............................................
Miscellaneous machine operatives, meat and dairy
products ............................................................
Miscellaneous machine operatives, all other food products
Miscellaneous machine operatives, lumber and furniture .
Miscellaneous machine operatives, paper and allied
products ............................................................
Miscellaneous machine operatives, chemicals and allied
products ............................................................
Chemical operators-A ...........................................
Chemical operators-B ...........................................
.
Miscellaneous machine operatives, rubber and
miscellaneous plastics...........................................
Extruder operators, rubber or plastics ....................
Compression and injection mold machine operators,
plastics............................................................
Miscellaneous machine operatives, stone, clay, and glass
Miscellaneous machine operatives, primary metals........
Miscellaneous machine operatives, manufacturing, nec. .
Miscellaneous machine operatives, nonmanufacturing . . .
Miscellaneous operatives, nec, durable goods..............
Miscellaneous operatives, nec, nondurable goods ........
Poultry dressers, eviscerators.................................
Press assistants and feeders .................................
213
28
190
26
251
35
267
37
277
39
18
25
25
34
30
39
32
36
40
46
45
51
101
50
86
90
40
102
229
50
25
93
41
69
83
39
86
218
48
26
131
49
82
99
42
103
231
50
30
140
51
85
102
44
108
238
50
31
144
53
88
104
45
112
242
51
32
29
-3
-5
11
6
1
1
0
16
38
2
-1
13
10
5
4
1
23
42
6
2
16
12
10
6
3
25
41
20
18
20
7
19
6
4
14
50
25
22
23
11
25
9
6
20
55
31
26
26
13
30
11
8
22
Mixing operatives ...................................................
Oilers .....................................................................
Photographic process workers...................................
Rotary drill operators...............................................
Rotary drill operator helpers .....................................
Shoemaking machine operators .................................
Surveyor helpers......................................................
Tire changers..........................................................
Coil winders............................................................
43
43
70
22
31
60
50
60
28
41
36
67
28
33
52
40
60
27
43
44
77
27
29
34
61
83
32
45
45
78
28
29
36
63
86
32
46
46
80
28
30
34
65
88
33
2
3
9
24
-6
-4 3
22
39
13
6
5
11
26
-4
-4 0
26
45
13
8
8
14
27
-3
-4 3
30
48
18
5
21
15
-2
-1 4
-3 3
54
39
19
9
24
17
-1
-1 2
-3 0
59
45
19
12
27
20
0
-1 1
-3 4
64
48
24
1 5 ,6 6 0
2 ,7 9 6
5 ,9 0 6
1 6 ,2 4 1
2 ,8 2 8
6 ,2 0 4
2 0 ,7 0 6
3 ,6 0 6
8 ,2 2 1
2 1 ,1 1 3
3 ,6 8 2
8 ,3 2 2
30
27
37
32
29
39
35
32
41
27
28
33
30
30
34
35
364
184
1 ,1 6 1
406
330
424
36
384
191
1 ,2 1 1
423
351
437
46
500
173
1 ,5 9 1
527
494
570
46
505
179
1 ,6 1 3
536
500
578
47
511
182
1 ,6 3 6
549
505
582
31
37
-6
37
30
50
34
32
39
-3
39
32
51
36
33
40
-1
41
35
53
37
26
26
31
27
30
-9
31
25
41
31
28
32
-6
33
27
42
32
30
33
-5
Food preparation and service workers, fast food
restaurants..........................................................
Hosts/hostesses, restaurant, lounge, coffee shop..........
Kitchen helpers........................................................
Pantry, sandwich, and coffee makers .........................
Waiters and waitresses.............................................
Waiters assistants ...................................................
All other food service workers ...................................
757
110
822
77
1 ,5 9 9
283
515
809
113
850
84
1 ,6 6 5
302
559
1 ,0 9 2
152
1 ,1 3 9
111
2 ,1 9 9
384
726
1 ,1 0 6
154
1 ,1 5 5
112
2 ,2 2 7
388
734
1 ,1 1 3
155
1 ,1 7 4
114
2 ,2 4 9
394
748
44
38
39
43
38
36
41
46
40
41
45
39
37
43
47
41
43
47
41
39
45
35
34
34
32
32
27
30
37
36
36
34
34
29
31
38
37
38
36
35
30
34
Selected health service workers.....................................
Dental assistants......................................................
Licensed practical nurses .........................................
1 ,9 8 0
129
524
2 ,2 4 0
153
594
3 ,0 3 8
3 ,0 6 6
218
815
3 ,1 6 6
229
8 41
53
65
54
55
69
55
60
77
60
36
39
36
37
42
37
41
49
41
Service workers..............................................................
Building custodians......................................................
Food service workers....................................................
Bakers, bread and pastry .........................................
Bartenders..............................................................
Butchers and meatcutters .........................................
Cooks and chefs ......................................................
Cooks, institutional...............................................
Cooks, restaurant.................................................
Cooks, short order and specialty fast foods ...............
42
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
■
2 0 ,4 1 6
3 ,554*
8 ,1 1 3
213
35
30
44
33
Table 1.
C o n tinued— C ivilian em ploym ent in occupations
Percent change
Total employment (in thousands)
Occupation
1979
1982
Low
trend
Moderate
trend
1982-95
1979-95
1995
High
trend
Low
trend
Moderate
trend
High
trend
Low
trend
Moderate
trend
High
trend
148
1,642
46
185
154
1,690
47
192
65
50
56
60
67
51
57
60
74
55
62
66
45
34
38
40
47
35
38
41
53
39
43
46
1,961
127
29
57
499
589
2,010
129
29
58
504
604
27
14
7
43
25
19
29
15
9
45
26
22
32
17
11
48
27
25
18
9
9
20
19
17
20
10
10
21
20
20
23
12
13
24
22
23
69
63
130
88
46
39
119
70
66
133
92
51
41
122
26
(1)
(1)
35
88
-6
27
27
(1)
(1)
37
96
-4
29
29
(1)
(1)
42
114
1
33
27
17
29
21
29
-4
26
29
19
29
23
34
-2
28
30
24
32
27
46
4
32
2,146
147
29
42
217
52
935
44
2,194
150
30
43
223
53
950
46
22
31
5
5
2
5
45
(1)
25
35
8
7
4
7
47
(1)
24
31
6
10
7
10
46
29
26
33
8
12
8
12
47
31
29
36
11
14
11
14
50
36
586
69
106
383
275
592
68
107
390
850
279
608
71
110
400
864
285
21
30
3
3
0
3
44
(1)
1
12
4
0
-25
35
2
9
5
2
-22
37
5
14
8
4
-21
39
7
17
10
6
-20
31
8
14
10
7
-17
33
11
19
14
10
-16
36
5,861
105
56
100
46
110
661
608
165
30
42
27
962
355
608
39
6,884
119
67
133
53
127
732
777
172
41
56
33
1,111
420
691
35
7,052
120
69
138
54
129
744
798
175
41
57
33
1,150
430
721
35
7,215
123
71
143
56
133
759
819
179
42
58
34
1,171
435
736
36
10
31
10
11
3
11
13
-24
0
39
18
11
18
18
19
-23
13
33
12
16
6
12
15
-22
1
41
21
12
23
21
24
-22
15
35
16
20
8
16
17
-20
4
42
23
15
25
22
27
-20
17
14
20
32
14
15
11
28
4
36
32
23
15
18
14
-10
20
15
23
38
18
17
13
31
6
38
35
24
20
21
19
-9
23
17
27
43
21
20
15
35
9
39
37
27
22
23
21
-7
2,691
1,448
1,407
40
1,243
33
1,211
2,404
1,370
1,319
51
1,034
31
1,003
2,407
1,357
1,304
52
1,050
31
1,019
2,424
1,359
1,305
53
1,065
32
1,033
-11
-5
-6
21
-18
-7
-18
-11
-6
-7
24
-16
-5
-17
-10
-6
-7
26
-15
-3
-16
-11
-5
-6
27
-17
-6
-17
-11
-6
-7
30
-16
-4
-16
-10
-6
-7
32
-14
-2
-15
Medical assistants.....................................................
Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants........................
Pharmacy helpers .....................................................
Psychiatric aides.......................................................
88
1,087
29
115
100
1,218
33
132
Selected personal service workers ...................................
Barbers....................................................................
Bellhops, bag porters, and doorkeepers.........................
Child-care attendants .................................................
Child-care workers.....................................................
Cosmetologists/women's hairstylists .............................
1,518
110
26
39
396
483
1,632
115
26
47
414
491
Flight attendants .......................................................
Game and ride operators and concession workers ..........
Housekeepers, hotel and motel.....................................
Recreation facility attendants .......................................
Reducing instructors .................................................
Ushers, lobby attendants, and ticket takers....................
Welfare service aides .................................................
54
(1)
(1)
64
24
41
92
54
53
101
72
35
40
93
Protective service workers .............................................
Correction officials and jailers .....................................
Crossing or bridge tenders .........................................
Crossing guards, school.............................................
Firefighters................................................................
Fire officers ......................... .................................
Guards and doorkeepers.............................................
Lifeguards ................................................................
1,707
111
27
38
201
46
635
34
Police and detectives, public service .............................
Police detectives ...................................................
Police officers .......................................................
Police patrolmen/women .........................................
Private household workers .............................................
Supervisors, nonworking, service.....................................
1,752
112
28
40
213
49
645
(1)
578
62
102
383
1,088
205
Laborers, except farm.......................................................
Animal caretakers..........................................................
Cannery workers............................................................
Cleaners, vehicle .........................................................
Conveyor operators and tenders.......................................
Garbage collectors .......................................................
Gardeners and groundskeepers, except farm ....................
Helpers, trades ............................................................
Highway maintenance workers.........................................
Line service attendants .................................................
Plpelayers............................................................
Riggers ......................................................................
Stock handlers..............................................................
Order fillers ..............................................................
Stock clerks, sales floor.............................................
Fallers and buckers.......................................................
6,257
91
61
119
51
115
646
1,023
173
29
47
30
938
356
581
45
Farmers and farmworkers .................................................
Farmers and farm managers...........................................
Farm owners and tenants ...........................................
Farm managers..........................................................
Farm supervisors and laborers .......................................
Farm supervisors.......................................................
Farm laborers............................................................
2,704
1,447
1,405
42
1,257
33
1,224
549
59
97
363
1,023
210
809
146
1,628
45
184
1,930
126
28
56
495
577
68
62
130
87
44
38
116
2,121
145
29
42
214
51
925
43
1Data not available.
The growth of occupations concentrated in the construc
tion and manufacturing industries, which was severely af
fected by the 1980-82 recession, includes recovery from
the trough of that period. As a result, the data on growth
patterns of occupations must be interpreted very carefully.
For this reason, the data on growth presented in table 1
include employment data for 1979 (prerecessionary) and
1979-95 growth rates.2
Alternative sets of projections
The Bureau has developed three alternative sets of oc
cupational employment projections that are tied to the eco
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nomic and industry alternatives presented elsewhere in this
issue of the Review. Although the assumptions and analyses
that differentiate these scenarios result in different rates of
growth for most occupations, the basic changes in the oc
cupational composition from 1982 to 1995 are similar in all
versions. Thus, although this article focuses on the “ mod
erate” scenario, the discussion would be very similar if any
of the other scenarios were highlighted. However, the major
differences in trends between the alternate scenarios are
reported in the final section of this article. The alternative
projections are also shown in table 1 for all detailed oc
cupations.
43
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • Occupational Employment Projections To 1995
Differences in the occupational projections among the
three alternatives should not be considered as the potential
range within which the projections are likely to fall because
the range for most occupations is much wider than that
shown. The majority of occupations are sensitive to a wide
variety of assumptions and economic factors and all of these
could not be considered in the three scenarios.
One should keep in mind that the development of pro
jections is not a precise statistical process. Despite the use
of sophisticated economic models and the use of data in
those models that are carefully developed by statistical tech
niques, the future cannot be precisely predicted. Too many
factors can alter economic activity over the 1982-95 period
to assure that the projections provide an exact picture of the
future. This is very evident if one reviews previous em
ployment projections developed by the Bureau or any other
organization.3
The projections developed by the Bureau reflect very
detailed analyses of the factors that are expected to affect
occupational trends in addition to those factors built into
the model. Thus, the occupational projections presented in
this article reflect the analyses and judgments of Bureau
staff who are involved in this development. Some of these
judgments are fairly subjective, and therefore, open to ques
tion. For example, in developing projected occupational
staffing patterns for automobile manufacturing, judgments
had to be made about the actual use of robots and other
production processes in the industry during 1982-95. Clearly,
at this stage of the development and use of robots in au
tomobile manufacturing, such judgments are highly subjec
tive.
Despite these analytical problems in developing precise
projections of the future, our experience has indicated that
basic trends in occupational structure can be approximated
through the types of analyses described. Growth trends have
proved to be correct for most occupations in previous sets
of projections. We are hopeful that our experience and im
proved techniques and data bases will result in projections
that present the general trends in employment by occupation
during 1982-95.
Broad structural changes
The impact of technological change, differences in in
dustrial growth patterns, and other factors that have a sig
nificant impact on occupations will result in changes in the
broad occupational structure between 1982 and 1995. How
ever, the direction of these changes will be very similar to
changes that have occurred over the past several decades.
Professional and technical workers will continue to increase
faster than total employment and account for a greater share
of total employment in 1995 than in 1982. Service workers,
excluding private household workers, also will continue to
grow faster than average. Managers, salesworkers, and craftworkers will continue to increase at about average rates and
44
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maintain their relative share of total employment, a share
which has not changed significantly over the past two de
cades. On the other hand, operatives and laborers should
continue their long-term decline as a proportion of total
employment, as their growth is impacted by the effects of
technological change and the relatively faster growth of the
service sector. Private household workers are expected to
continue to decline numerically as well as in proportion to
total employment.
Major changes in long-term trends in the broad occupa
tional structure, however, are expected in clerical and in
farming occupations. Although the number of clerical work
ers is expected to continue to increase, the effects of office
automation should result in average growth rather than in
the faster than average growth which has occurred over the
past two decades. Farming occupations which have declined
significantly throughout the century are expected to continue
to decrease but somewhat more slowly than in the past.
However, farming occupations should drop significantly as
a proportion of total employment between 1982 and 1995.
Broad occupational trends tend to mask much of the dy
namic changes in occupational structures that have occurred
and are expected to occur over the projections period. Within
each broad occupational group, detailed occupational trends
will be affected by technological changes and by alterations
in the basic structure of industrial growth. The latter changes
are extremely important because occupational growth is very
closely related to changes in employment of industries in
which they are concentrated. The following sections of this
article discuss the growth of individual occupations and
highlight many of the basic changes in occupational em
ployment that are anticipated over the period.
Detailed occupations
The economy is expected to generate an additional 25.6
million jobs between 1982 and 1995. About one-half of this
job growth is projected to occur in only 40 of the 1,700
occupations (see table 2) for which projections were de
veloped. Several points should be kept in mind in reviewing
these occupations which will account for the greatest number
of additional jobs. In general, the occupations are numer
ically large and all had more than 250,000 workers in 1982.
Occupations that require extensive training are not found to
any greater extent in table 2 than are those requiring little
formal training. Only one-fourth of the occupations gen
erally require a college degree.
Several of the occupations on the list reflect recovery
from very low 1982 employment levels caused by the reces
sion. For example, helpers, trade; supervisors of blue-collar
workers; and carpenters are on the list only because of the
sharp drop in employment experienced from 1979 to 1982.
Most of the employment growth reflects recovery to prerecessionary levels.
A list of the fastest growing occupations from 1982 to
Table 2. Forty occupations w ith largest job grow th,
1 9 8 2 -9 5
Change in
total employment
(in thousands)
Percent of
total
job growth
Percent
change
Building custodians .......................
Cashiers .....................................
Secretaries...................................
General clerks, office ....................
Salesclerks...................................
Nurses, registered.........................
Waiters and waitresses..................
Teachers, kindergarten and
elementary ...............................
Truckdrivers.................................
Nursing aides and orderlies............
Sales representatives, technical . . . .
779
744
719
696
685
642
562
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.5
2.2
27.5
47.4
29.5
29.6
23.5
48.9
33.8
511
425
423
386
2.0
1.7
1.7
1.5
37.4
26.5
34.8
29.3
Accountants and auditors ..............
Automotive mechanics ..................
Supervisors of blue-collar workers . .
Kitchen helpers.............................
Guards and doorkeepers................
Food preparation and service workers,
fast food restaurants..................
Managers, store ...........................
Carpenters...................................
Electrical and electronic technicians
Licensed practical nurses ..............
344
324
319
305
300
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.2
40.2
38.3
26.6
35.9
47.3
297
292
247
222
220
1.2
1.1
1.0
.9
.9
36.7
30.1
28.6
60.7
37.1
Computer systems analysts............
Electrical engineers .......................
Computer programmers ................
Maintenance repairers, general utility
Helpers, trades.............................
Receptionists ...............................
Electricians...................................
Physicians ...................................
Clerical supervisors .......................
Computer operators.......................
Sales representatives, nontechnical . .
217
209
205
193
190
189
173
163
162
160
160
.8
.8
.8
.8
.6
.6
.6
85.3
65.3
76.9
27.8
31.2
48.8
31.8
34 0
34.6
75.8
27.4
Lawyers.......................................
Stock clerks, stockroom and
warehouse ...............................
Typists .......................................
Delivery and route workers ............
Bookkeepers, hand .......................
Cooks, restaurants.........................
Bank tellers .................................
Cooks, short order, specialty and fast
food .......................................
159
.6
34.3
156
155
153
152
142
.6
.6
.6
.6
.6
.6
18.8
15.7
19.2
15.9
42.3
30.0
141
.6
32.2
Occupation
149
.7
.7
.7
.7
Note: Includes only detailed occupations with 1982 employment of 25,000 or more.
Data for 1995 are based on moderate-trend projections.
1995 is shown in table 3. Although the list is dominated by
occupations that are tied to continued growth of expanding
industries and which have been among the strongest in the
economy for the past decade, many reflect recovery from
the recession. It is also important to note that these fast
growing occupations generally are not found on the list of
occupations that will add the most jobs over the period.
Almost half of the 20 occupations in the list are either in
the computer or health fields, which are among the fields
with the strongest growth.
Some occupations are expected to decline over the period.
(See table 4.) In general, occupations on the list are con
centrated in industries that are contracting, or severely af
fected by technological change. For example, railroad
conductors are concentrated in a declining industry, while
data entry operators are affected by technological change.
Health-related occupations. Health care will continue to be
an expanding field of work during 1982-95. Reflecting growth
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in expenditures for health services, occupations in this field
have been among the fastest growing for many years. Even
during 1979-82, when total employment was virtually un
changed, employment in health occupations grew signifi
cantly. Continued population growth and expansion of health
care insurance coverage are primary reasons underlying the
expected continued growth. In addition, the aged, requiring
the most health care, are expected to increase their share of
the U.S. population. While the population is expected to
go up by only 14 percent between 1980 and 1995, those
over 65 years of age will increase by 26 percent.
The number of registered nurses is expected to grow by
49 percent between 1982 and 1995, an additional 642,000
jobs. Physicians are projected to increase by 34 percent,
faster than the average for all occupations, and add 163,000
jobs. Nursing aides and orderlies should add 423,000 new
jobs and licensed practical nurses, 220,000 jobs, both rep
resenting faster than average growth. Overall, these four
occupations are projected to account for almost 6 percent
of the total employment growth over the period.
Among the smaller and faster growing occupations, phys
ical therapy technicians are projected to increase by 68 per
cent, occupational therapists by 60 percent, physical therapists
by 54 percent, and medical assistants by 47 percent.
Computer-related occupations. Computers are expected to
continue to have more widespread use throughout the econ
omy through the mid-1990’s. As a result, occupations that
are directly related to computer development and use will
be among the leaders in employment growth rates over the
period. The number of systems analysts and computer pro
grammers should expand at a very rapid rate through 1995.
As more uses are found for computers in business and ev
eryday life, software development will experience tremen
dous growth.
Most industry forecasts indicate that there will be more
than 10 times as many computers in use during the next
decade than exist today. This will translate into an increased
demand for additional computer service technicians to main
tain the equipment.
Recently, the focus has been on the micro- and mini
computers. Mainframe (large) computers have mostly been
overlooked. In 1982, mainframe sales stood at $10 billion
representing the largest segment of the computer machine
market. Fifth-generation machines are expected to be intro
duced in the early 1990’s, and sales are projected to grow
significantly by 1995. Therefore, this means strong growth
in the number of computer and peripheral equipment op
erators needed by 1995.
Education-related occupations. The growth of employment
in many occupations in the education field is closely tied to
the size of the school-age population. Although births de
clined steadily during 1961-75, the number of children born
each year has grown steadily since 1976 and is expected to
45
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • Occupational Employment Projections To 1995
Table 3.
Tw enty fastest grow ing occupations, 1 9 8 2 -9 5
Occupation
Percent growth in
employment
Computer service technicians
Legal assistants .................................
Computer systems analysts .........................
Computer programmers.......................
Computer operators ....................
Office machine repairers....................
Physical therapy assistants..................
Electrical engineers..................
Civil engineering technicians..................
Peripheral EDP equipment operators............
96.8
94.3
85.3
76.9
75.8
71.7
67.8
65.3
63.9
63.5
Insurance clerks, medical............
Electrical and electronic technicians ........
Occupational therapists ...................
Surveyor helpers ..................
Credit clerks, banking and insurance .
Physical therapists ............
Employment interviewers . . . .
Mechanical engineers ..............
Mechanical engineering technicians . .
Compression and injection mold machine operators,
plastics.........................
62.2
60.7
59.8
58.6
54.1
53.6
52.5
52.1
51.6
50.3
Note: Includes only detailed occupations with 1982 employment of 25,000 or more
Data tor 1995 are based on moderate-trend projections.
continue until 1987. Because of this increase in births and
the expected continued growth in the labor force partici
pation of mothers of young children, employment of pre
school teachers is expected to surge during 1982-95,
increasing by more than 40 percent. Kindergarten and el
ementary schoolteachers as well as teachers’ aides are an
ticipated to grow substantially as growth in the youth
population works its way through the educational system.
The increase in the school-age population will not affect
secondary schools until early in the 1990’s. Therefore, sec
ondary schoolteachers are expected to decline in numbers
until 1990 and then turn around. Overall, between 1982 and
1995, this occupation should experience only minimal growth.
At the post-secondary level, vocational education teachers
can be expected to grow at a strong pace. Growth of job
training and retraining programs will be reflected in in
creased demand for this occupation. However, college and
university teachers are projected to decline during 1982-95
because of a drop in the college-age population and because
of higher tuition.
Scientific and technical occupations. Many scientific and
technical occupations are expected to grow rapidly over the
period, benefiting from the growth of high-technology in
dustries. However, some will be negatively affected by the
products of high technology and others will grow more
sluggishly than average because they are concentrated in
slowly growing industries.
Engineering occupations are expected to provide nearly
600,000 new jobs by 1995, as the occupation is expected
to grow much faster than average. As manufacturing in
dustries, primarily durable goods, rebound from the reces
sion and place new technologies into their production systems,
there will be heavy demands for electrical, industrial, and
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mechanical engineers. More civil engineers will be needed
to meet the demands of a rejuvenated construction industry.
Petroleum engineers on the other hand should experience
average growth as oil supplies stabilize and new drilling
moderates.
Chemists will be affected by a diminished growth of the
chemical industry and geologists and geophysicists by a
slowdown in oil and gas extraction. Therefore, both oc
cupations are expected to grow only as fast as average. A
fairly strong demand for biological scientists is expected
due to the growth of the drug industry. Electrical and elec
tronic technicians, mechanical engineering technicians, and
civil engineering technicians should experience strong growth
similar to their engineer counterparts. Drafters is one im
portant occupation in this group to fall victim to new tech
nology. As computer-assisted design equipment gains more
widespread use, the growth of this occupation will be vir
tually nil.
Office clerical workers. Most office clerical occupations are
expected to grow more slowly during 1982-95 than in the
1970’s because of office automation. Nevertheless, signif
icant growth is expected in some of these occupations. Re
ceptionists should be among the fastest growing clerical
occupations, with a projected increase of 49 percent. Be
cause of the varied responsibilities and the need for human
interaction, it is difficult to replace this occupation with a
machine. Secretaries will increasingly use advanced office
equipment in the future, thereby becoming more productive.
This in turn will dampen demand for the occupation. Never
theless, secretaries are projected to grow at a rate that is
about average because of the growth of industries in which
they are concentrated.
Tab le 4. Tw enty m ost rapidly declining occupations,
1 9 8 2 -9 5
Occupation
Railroad conductors ..........
Shoemaking machine operatives .
Aircraft structure assemblers . . . .
Central telephone office operators .
Taxi drivers.......................
Postal clerks ..............
Private household workers .
Farm laborers ...................
College and university faculty
Roustabouts ............
Postmasters and mail superintendents
Rotary drill operator helpers . . .
Graduate assistants..........
Data entry operators ........
Railroad brake operators . .
Fallers and buckers . . . .
Stenographers ............
Farm owners and tenants . . .
Typesetters and compositors........
Butchers and meatcutters........
Percent decline
in employment
-32.0
-30.2
-21 0
-20.0
-18 9
-17 9
-16 9
-15 9
-15.0
-14 4
-13.8
-11.6
-11 2
-10 6
-9 8
87
-7^4
73
-7 3
-6.3
N ote : Includes only detailed occupations with 1982 employment of 25 000 or more
Data for 1995 are based on moderate-trend projections.
equipment used by industry and by consumers is expected
to provide continued steady growth for mechanics and re
pairers. Automotive mechanics are projected to grow faster
than average— about 38 percent from 1982 to 1995— and
because of the occupation’s large size it will add nearly
324,000 jobs. Refrigeration and air-conditioning mechanics
are expected to add 55,000 jobs. Office machine servicers
and cash register servicers should rise by 72 percent as
offices and stores are automated. This occupation will be
among the fastest growing during the period.
Transportation occupations. As econom ic activity in
creases, so does the demand for transporting goods. Tech
nological change has not radically affected the trucking
industry, therefore, a rising demand for its services brings
about roughly proportional increases in the employment of
truckdrivers. Truckdrivers are projected to show average
growth but, because of its large size,, add almost 424,000
jobs. Double trailers and larger trucks will dampen em
ployment growth among long-haul truckdrivers as will com
petition for long-haul business from railroad transportation.
Ambulance drivers are expected to have average em
ployment growth. Busdrivers and industrial truck operators
should experience below average growth rates. Technolog
ical change may have a greater impact on industrial truck
operators, who move materials from one location to another
within factories and warehouses. Industrial truck operators
are projected to increase by 70,000, which largely reflects
recovery from the decline in manufacturing employment
during 1980-82.
Construction trades. Employment fluctuations caused by
Production occupations. The recovery of manufacturing from
cyclical and seasonal factors characterize the construction
industry. As a result, construction-related employment pro
jections are difficult to develop accurately. Although em
ployment among construction trades is projected to increase
by more than 900,000 workers, much of this growth rep
resents a recovery from the severe downturn of the early
1980’s. If allowance is made for this recession, the growth
of the construction trade occupations may be seen as ap
proximating that of the rest of the economy.
Employment among the construction trades will also be
affected by technological changes within the industry. Dry
wall installers will benefit from the increased use of dry
wall. Modular construction will slow the employment growth
of carpenters. On the other hand, the increasing use of new
types of electrical equipment will continue to aid the em
ployment growth of electricians.
the recent recession and its projected employment increase
by 1995 will provide many additional jobs for production
workers performing precision tasks. Although growth rates
will only approximate the economy as a whole, supervisors
of blue-collar workers will gain 319,000 jobs; machinists,
58,000; press and plate printers, 35,000; tool and die mak
ers, 32,000; and millwrights, 30,000. The majority of ma
chinists, tool and die makers, and millwrights work in durable
goods manufacturing which declined during 1980-82 and
which is expected to recover and grow.
Some of the lesser skilled production occupations (such
as operatives) are threatened by the introduction of robots
and other automated equipment. Robots can perform weld
ing, machine loading and unloading, spray painting, and
certain types of assembly work, but their introduction is
currently hampered by factors such as the lack of visual
capabilities and by their purchase, installation, and main
tenance costs. If the robots’ capabilities can be improved
and their associated costs can be reduced through mass
production, we may see an occupational impact.
Among the fabricating, assembly, and handworking oc
cupations, the group of assembly occupations is anticipated
to grow by 332,000, primarily in electrical and electronic
components, machinery, and electrical equipment assem
bly. Welders and flamecutters are expected to increase by
105,000; however, they are expected to decline in the au
tomotive industry as more spot welding robots are used.
The number of filers, grinders, buffers, and chippers should
grow by about 30,000 jobs.
Some machine operators and tenders will experience the
impact of robots which can load materials into machinery.
However, increases are expected in some operator jobs,
including 52,000 combination machine tool operators and
Most other office clerical occupations including typists
will be growing more slowly than the average rate for all
occupations. The expected increase in typing work will be
in significant part taken care of by the increased use of word
processing equipment. Stenographers is the one office oc
cupation which has been declining and should continue to
do so during the period.
Mechanics and repairers. The increasing complexity of
Food and beverage service occupations. The trend toward
eating outside the home will result in continued employment
growth among food and beverage preparation and service
occupations. Sales in eating and drinking places nearly
quadrupled between 1967 and 1981,4 This trend is expected
to add 1.8 million jobs in eating and drinking places, an
increase of 38 percent during 1982-95. Much of this growth,
however, should be in fast food restaurants and therefore
food preparation and service workers in these establishments
would increase faster than other food service occupations.
They are expected to increase by 37 percent and add 297,000
jobs. Other food service occupations will also grow faster
than average including waiters and waitresses, up 562,000;
cooks, 402,000; and bartenders, 121,000. These four oc
cupations will account for more than 5 percent of the total
growth in jobs over the period.
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47
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • Occupational Employment Projections To 1995
39.000 power press operators. Sewers and stitchers should
gain 78,000 jobs, although the growth rate is expected to
be below average and employment is not even expected to
reach the 1977 level by 1995. Production inspectors, testers,
samplers, and weighers would be most affected by robotic
vision systems, but the use of these systems seems to be in
the distant future. Therefore, an increase of 119,000 in
specting jobs and 36,000 testing jobs is projected through
1995.
Sales occupations. Salesworker employment growth trends
are generally tied to the growth of industries in which they
are employed. Thus, security and bond sales agents and real
estate agents should grow faster than average as do their
related industries. Salesclerks should increase about average
following the trend in retail trade where most are employed.
However, because of the very large size of this occupation,
it should be among the leaders in the number of jobs added
during 1982-95.
Low and high alternative projections
The percentage distribution of occupational employment
or staffing patterns within specific industries that was used
to develop the low- and high-projection alternatives was
identical to that used in the moderate-trend projections.
Therefore, occupations that are concentrated in industries
whose employment varies significantly are those which show
the greatest variability among the three alternatives.
Total employment in the moderate-trend alternatives var
ied by only about 2 percent from both the low and high
trends. Therefore, the distribution of employment by major
occupational group varies little among the alternatives. (See
table 5.)
In looking at specific occupations, significant differences
may exist between the moderate and either the low and high
alternatives. In virtually all cases, employment levels are
small and the percent differences are relatively minor.
In a few instances, projected employment is greater in
the low alternative than in the moderate, or lower in the
high alternative than in the moderate. For example, em
ployment for aircraft structure assemblers is projected to be
28.000 in the low alternative and 26,000 in the moderate
and high alternatives. This is due to significantly higher
projected employment for aircraft manufacturing in the low
alternative which encompasses higher levels of defense ex
penditures.
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Table 5. P ercent distribution of em ploym ent by m ajor
o ccupational group, 1982 and projected 1995
1995
Occupational group
Total, all occupations.......................
Professional, technical, and related workers
Managers, officials, and proprietors ........
Salesworkers .......................................
Clerical workers.....................................
Craft and related workers .......................
Operatives : ......................................
Service workers.................................
Laborers, except farm ...........................
Farmers and farmworkers .......................
1982
Low
trend
Moderate
trend
High
trend
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
16.3
9.4
6.9
18.8
11.4
12.8
16.0
5.8
2.7
17.3
9.6
6.8
18.8
11.6
12.1
16.4
5.5
1.9
17.1
9.6
6.9
18.9
11.6
12.1
16.3
5.5
1.9
17.2
9.6
6.9
18.9
11.6
12.2
16.3
5.6
1.9
The following list identifies those occupations in which
the difference between the alternative (high or low) projected
employment is greater than 5 percent from the moderate
trend:
Postmasters and mail superintendents
Railroad conductors
Postal mail carriers
Postal service clerks
Bookbinders
Locomotive engineers
Railroad brake operators
Extruder operators, rubber or plastics
Compression and injection mold machine operators, plastics
Press assistants and feeders
Shoemaking machine operators
Data uses
The current and projected occupational employment es
timates presented in this article are developed by industry
and are a part of a national industry-occupational employ
ment matrix. Data from the matrix will underlie information
in the 1984-85 edition of the Occupational Outlook Hand
book which will be issued in the Spring of 1984. In addition
to being used in the development of career guidance infor
mation, national occupational employment data and projec
tions are used at all levels of government, and by others,
to formulate education plans, including vocational educa
tion, and training requirements. State employment security
agencies utilize the national matrix as part of their own
programs of developing occupational projections. Other
government agencies and private organizations also use the
matrix for analytical purposes.
□
FOOTNOTES
1See Handbook of Methods. Bulletin 2134 (Bureau of Labor Statistics,
1982), chapters 18-21.
2 Table 1 includes only 370 detailed occupations with employment of
25,000 or more in 1982. Projections developed in greater detail with
employment of 5,000 or more in 1982 will be published in the Spring of
1984 in Occupational Projections and Training Data. 1984 edition. Current
and projected occupational employment estimates are developed by the
Bureau in the National Industry-Occupational Employment Matrix pro
gram. The national matrix is developed by applying data on occupational
staffing patterns of industries collected in the Occupational Employment
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Statistics Survey program to estimates of annual average industry em
ployment collected in the Current Employment Statistics program. These
surveys count jobs rather than people; therefore, the employment estimates
contained in this report are different from those derived from a count of
individuals in the Current Population Survey.
3
See Max L. Carey and Kevin Kasunic, “ Evaluating the 1980 projec
tions of occupational employment,” Monthly Labor Review, July 1982,
pp. 2 2 -3 0 .
4 U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Business Report, Series BR, Monthly
Retail Trade.
A note on communications
The Monthly Labor Review welcomes communications that supple
ment, challenge, or expand on research published in its pages. To be
considered for publication, communications should be factual and an
alytical, not polemical in tone. Communications should be addressed
to the Editor-in-Chief, Monthly Labor Review, Bureau of Labor Statis
tics, U.S. Department of Labor, Washington, D.C. 20212.
49
High technology today and tomorrow:
a small slice of the employment pie
High tech industries are expected to provide
only a small proportion o f the jobs created
between 1982 and 1995, under three concepts
which embrace from six to 48 industries
R ic h a r d
and
W.
R ic h e , D
a n ie l
E.
H ecker,
Jo h n U . B u r g a n
High technology enjoys high visibility. Industry develop
ments are tracked closely in the United States and abroad,
and the implications for productivity, international com
petition, national defense, and the general standard of living
are of increasing interest. Many States and some major cities
have established task forces to assess the potential of high
technology to provide employment opportunities and to de
velop incentives to attract high tech industries.
Although industries that manufacture computers and of
fice equipment, electronic components and new drugs and
medicines generally are among those classified as high tech
industries, experts differ as to the makeup of the high tech
group. There is no widely accepted definition of high tech
nology industries, and they have been defined in many ways.
In this article, we set forth various concepts of high tech
nology and consider its effect on employment during the
1970’s and through the mid-1990’s.
The criteria generally used to classify high tech industries
are research and development ( r & d ) expenditures, the use of
scientific and technical personnel relative to total employ
ment, and product sophistication. Employing these criteria,
we developed three definitions of high tech to analyze emRichard W. Riche is an economist in the Office of Productivity and Tech
nology, Daniel E. Hecker is an economist in the Office of Economic Growth
and Employment Projections, and John U. Burgan is an economist in the
Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor
Statistics.
50
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
ployment trends in these industries. Our analysis indicates
that:
• Employment in high tech industries increased faster than
average industry growth during the 1972-82 period.
• High tech industries accounted for a relatively small pro
portion of all new. jobs nationwide, but provided a sig
nificant proportion of new jobs in some States and
communities.
• About 6 out of 10 high tech jobs are located in the 10
most populous States.
• States with relatively high proportions of employment in
high tech industries are generally small; most are in the
Northeast.
• Through 1995, employment in high tech industries is
projected to grow somewhat faster than in the economy
as a whole.
• High tech industries, even broadly defined, will account
for only a small proportion of new jobs through 1995.
• Scientific and technical workers, while critical to the growth
of industry and the economy, will account for only 6
percent of all new jobs through 1995.
A look at the concepts
Our examination of published reports on high technology
prepared by private organizations and Federal and State
agencies indicates a variety of approaches to identifying high
technology industries. One approach used by a State agency,
for example, involved a review of the U.S. Government’s
Standard Industrial Classification (sic) manual in which 20
industry groups were designated as high tech based on the
perceived degree of technical sophistication of the prod
ucts. 1One limitation of this method, and others which focus
on the nature of the product, is that it is highly subjective.
Moreover, as Robert Vinson and Paul Harrington point out
in an article on high technology industries in Massachusetts,
the degree of technical sophistication of the product is of
less significance than the complexity of the production pro
cess for those interested in the implications of high tech for
capital and labor force requirements.2
A concept of high technology included in a document
prepared by the Congressional Office of Technology As
sessment illustrates a much broader and complex approach
in which a series of factors are considered in developing a
concept of high tech firms and industries.3 The office de
scribes high technology firms as
. . companies that are
engaged in the design, development, and introduction of
new products and/or innovative manufacturing processes
through the systematic application of scientific and technical
knowledge . . . ” . It points out that these companies typi
cally use state-of-the-art techniques, have a high proportion
of r & d costs; employ a high proportion of scientific, technical
and engineering personnel; and serve small, specialized
markets. The report goes on to say, “ A high technology
industry is a group of firms, producing similar or related
products, that includes a high proportion of high technology
firm s.”
As suggested earlier, definitions of high technology vary
considerably. Federal agencies, including the Department
of Defense, the Securities and Exchange Commission, and
the Department of Commerce have formulated definitions
of high technology to suit their own particular research
needs.
An example: the set of definitions included in a report
by the International Trade Administration, Department of
Commerce, which examines U.S. competitiveness in high
technology industries.4 Four techniques for defining tech
nology intensive trade are presented; one identifies indus
tries and three focus on products.
The industry-based definition of technology intensive trade,
developed by Michael Boretsky, uses the two measures
frequently employed in examining high technology: r & d ex
penditures as a percentage of industry value added, and
industry employment of scientists, engineers, and techni
cians as a proportion of the industry work force.5 He iden
tified two groups of industries based on the magnitude of
r & d expenditures and employment of scientists, engineers,
and technicians: technology intensive industries and high
technology industries. Technology intensive products and
others are not separately identified. The three product-based
definitions also help in evaluating competitiveness in high
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
technology industries. In the mid-1970’s, Regina Kelly used
r & d expenditures by product field and value of product ship
ments to develop intensity ratios.6 She ranked products by
r & d “ intensity” and classified them by technology. Kelly
designated the first quartile of r & d intensities as high tech
nology goods. Subsequently, she refined her analysis and
considered product groups with above average r & d intensities
as technology intensive. In 1980, C. Michael Aho and How
ard Rosen basically used the Kelly methodology to identify
technology-intensive product groups.7 These researchers used
more recent data and the Standard International Trade Clas
sification. More recently, Lester Davis used input-output
analysis and r & d expenditure and shipment data by product
group to develop an index of technological intensity.8 Using
an input-output matrix, Davis determined the value of r & d
embodied in the various inputs used to make the products
and the percentage of r & d embodied in the final product. He
then arrived at total r & d by combining the indirect r & d ( r & d
contributed by inputs) with the value of direct r & d ( r & d ex
penditures on product development). Davis ranked product
groups according to total r & d to shipments intensity, with
only those goods showing a significant r & d intensity (rather
than simply above average) designated as high tech prod
ucts.
A definition by Ann Lawson in an article in the Depart
ment of Commerce’s Industrial Economic Review includes
industries “ possessing above average levels of scientific and
engineering skills and capabilities, compared to other in
dustries; and currently experiencing the accelerating tech
nological growth associated with the germination and evolution
stages along their respective S-curves.” 9
Selecting three groups of industries
Because there is no widely accepted definition of high
technology industries, we believe it is useful to illustrate
employment trends under a range of concepts. As indicated,
the concepts underlying most definitions of high technology
use one or a combination of three factors (1) the utilization
of scientific and technical workers, (2) expenditures for re
search and development, and (3) the nature of the product
of the industry. We have selected three groups of high
technology industries based on these concepts.
We have defined industries according to the Standard
Industrial Classification (sic) at the 3-digit detail. We would
have preferred to use 4-digit detail, but data were not avail
able. We made an exception for r & d laboratories (sic 7391),
because, for this industry, data were available, and the other
industries in sic 739 have high levels of employment but
little or no involvement with high technology. We defined
scientific and technical workers as engineers, life and phys
ical scientists, mathematical specialists, engineering and
science technicians and computer specialists. We refer to
these workers as technology-oriented workers. We excluded
government, colleges, and universities, although some of
51
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • High Technology Today and Tomorrow
their activities are no doubt high tech-oriented, such as some
research conducted in higher educational institutions and in
some government agencies. There was no realistic way to
estimate the small proportion of employment associated with
these activities.
Data on-research and development expenditures are com
piled annually through surveys conducted by the National
Science Foundation. The most recent data available are for
1980. Statistics on employment of scientific and technical
workers by industry are presented in the Bureau’s national
Table 1.
industry-occupation matrix. The most current matrix avail
able presents data for 1982.
Group /. The criterion for inclusion in this group is solely
the utilization of technology-oriented workers. We included
an industry if technology-oriented workers accounted for a
proportion of total employment that was at least one and a
half times the average for all industries. (See table 1.)
To provide a reasonable definition but very broad cov
erage, we set the cutoff at 5.1 percent of total employment.
E m ploym ent in high technology industries, 1 9 7 2 ,1 9 8 0 , and 1982
[In thousands]
High-tech group1
Industry
SIC
I
II
Employment
Percent change
III
1972
1980
1982
1972-80
1972-82
X
X
X
139.3
495.1
141.2
228.7
159.2
219.6
658.5
161.1
204.8
196.1
281.7
633.9
153.5
182.7
199.8
57.7
33.0
14.1
-10.0
23.2
102.2
28.1
8.7
-20.1
25.5
131
162
281
282
283
Crude petroleum and natural gas.............................................
Heavy construction, except highway and street...........................
Industrial inorganic chemicals..................................................
Plastic materials and synthetics...............................................
Drugs ................................................................................
X
X
X
X
X
284
285
286
287
289
Soaps, cleaners, and toilet preparations ...................................
Paints and allied products ......................................................
Industrial organic chemicals....................................................
Agricultural chemicals............................................................
Miscellaneous chemical products.............................................
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
122.4
68.6
142.8
56.4
90.0
140.9
65.1
174.1
72.0
93.3
145.3
59.7
174.3
67.1
91.5
15.1
-5.1
21.9
27.7
3.7
18.7
-13.0
22.1
19.0
1.7
291
301
324
348
351
Petroleum refining ................................................................
Tires and inner tubes ............................................................
Cement, hydraulic ................................................................
Ordnance and accessories ......................................................
Engines and turbines ............................................................
X
X
X
X
X
X
151.4
122.1
31.9
81.9
114.6
154.8
114.8
30.9
63.4
135.2
169.0
101.9
28.5
71.4
114.8
2.3
6.0
-3.1
-25.6
18.0
11.6
-16.5
-10.6
-12.8
0.2
352
353
354
355
356
Farm and garden machinery....................................................
Construction, mining, and material handling machinery ..............
Metalworking machinery ........................................................
Special industry machinery, except metalworking .......................
General industrial machinery.................................................
X
X
X
X
X
135.0
293.7
286.0
176.9
267.5
169.1
389.3
373.1
207.3
323.7
130.8
340.9
320.3
179.4
283.2
25.3
32.6
30.5
17.2
21.0
-3.1
16.1
12.0
1.4
5.9
357
358
361
362
363
Office, computing, and accounting machines.............................
Refrigeration and service industry machinery.............................
Electric transmission and distribution equipment.........................
Electrical industrial apparatus .................................................
Household appliances ...............................................
X
X
X.
X
X
X
X
259.6
164.4
128.4
209.3
186.9
432.2
174.2
122.5
239.9
163.2
489.7
161.3
110.1
211.8
142.0
66.5
6.0
-4.6
14.6
-12.7
88.6
-1.9
-14.2
12
-25.0
364
365
366
367
369
Electric lighting and wiring equipment .......................
Radio and' TV receiving equipment.......................................
Communication equipment.....................................
Electronic components and accessories .........................
Miscellaneous electrical machinery...............................
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
204.4
139.5
458.4
354.8
131.7
209.2
108.8
541.4
553.6
152.1
186.9
94.6
555.7
568.7
141.3
2.4
- 22.0
18.1
56 0
15.5
-8 6
—32.2
21 2
60 3
7.3
371
372
376
381
382
Motor vehicles and equipment .................................
Aircraft and parts.....................................
Guided missiles and space vehicles .........................
Engineering, laboratory, scientific, and research instruments . . . .
Measuring and controlling instruments............
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
874.8
494.9
92.5
64.5
159.6
788.8
652.3
111.3
76.8
245.3
690.0
611.8
127.3
75.7
244.3
-9.8
31 8
20 3
19 1
53.7
-21 1
23 6
37 5
17 4
53J
383
384
386
483
489
Optical instruments and lenses ....................
Surgical, medical, and dental instruments.......................
Photographic equipment and supplies..............
Radio and TV broadcasting.............................
Communication services, n.e.c.2 ............
X
X
X
X
X
17.6
90.5
117.1
142.7
29.7
33.0
155.5
134.6
199.6
66.1
32.5
160.4
138 3
216.4
91.0
87 5
71 8
15 0
39 9
122.6
84 7
77 2
18 1
51 6
206.4
491
493
506
508
737
Electric services.........................
Combination electric, gas and other utility services . .
Wholesale trade, electrical goods............
Wholesale trade, machinery, equipment, and supplies
Computer and data processing services
X
X
X
X
X
312.0
183.4
331.2
868.6
106.7
391.0
196.7
421.4
1,307.7
304.3
415.1
198 4
434.9
1,344.9
357.5
25 3
73
27 2
50 6
185.2
33 0
ft 2
54 8
235.1
Research and development laboratories ............
Engineering, architectural, and surveying services . . .
Noncommercial educational, scientific and research organizations
X
X
X
110.7
339.3
111.8
163.1
544.9
113.5
162 7
568 7
117.8
47 3
60 1
1.5
47 0
67 6
5.4
7391
891
892
1
■"W.wwvw " 'u u t f u iv u »»IUI u ^ l u y u i u u n
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
31 3
I l o o m i u iu y y -u i IGIIIGU W U IK C lb ( G l i y i ”
neers, life and physical scientists, mathematical specialists, engineering and science
technicians and computer specialists) at least 1.5 times the average for all industries.
Group II. Includes industries with a ratio of R&D expenditures to net sales at least twice
the average for all industries.
Group III. Includes manufacturing industries with a proportion of technology-oriented
52
X
of R&D expenditures to sales close to or above the average for all industries. Two
nonmanufacturing industries which provide technical support to high tech manufacturing
industries also are included.
2Not elsewhere classified.
y
However, we excluded industries with fewer than 25,000
workers. A total of 48 industries makes this the broadest of
the three groups. As indicated in table 1, manufacturing
industries account for 3 of every 4 industries in this category,
with the remainder in mining, construction, transportation
and public utilities, and trade and services.
Group II.
r & d expenditures were the factor used to select
this group of industries. We included an industry if its ratio
o f R&D expenditures to net sales was at least twice the average
for all industries. The cutoff point, 6.2 percent, was set
high to capture only those industries, such as drugs and
communication equipment, heavily involved in developing
new products. Because the National Science Foundation
data show little r & d outside of manufacturing, we excluded
other industries. This group, with only six industries, is the
narrowest of the three groups of high tech industries. The
industries, as expected, fall into all three groups.
Group III. The criteria for this group are both the utilization
of technology-oriented workers and r & d expenditures. In ad
dition, we excluded some industries based on their major
products.
We included manufacturing industries if the proportion
of technology-oriented workers relative to total employment
in the industry was equal to or greater than the average for
all manufacturing industries (6.3 percent) and the ratio of
r & d expenditures to sales was close to or above the average
fo r all industries (3.1 percent). We added two industries
which provide technical support to manufacturing indus
tries, computer and data processing services (sic 737) and
r & d laboratories.
Group III, with 28 industries, provides a scope of cov
erage between groups I and II. It excludes most nonman
ufacturing industries that are in group I but which have little
r & d activity (and therefore little new product development),
such as engineering and architectural services and radio and
TV broadcasting. The exclusion of nonmanufacturing in
dustries is common in definitions of high tech industries.
Table 2.
Group III also excludes some manufacturing industries found
in group I, such as motor vehicles, which did not meet both
criteria, and certain machinery industries, which met the
criteria, but whose products we did not consider high tech
nology. However, using both criteria, we included some
manufacturing industries not in group II, such as those in
the instruments, chemicals, and electrical equipment groups,
industries with moderately high r & ej>to sales ratios that appear
on many lists of high technology.
Employment trends during 1972-82
Employment in high technology industries, no matter which
of the three definitions is used, increased faster than all
wage and salary employment between 1972 and 1982. (See
table 2.) Group II employment, however, increased signif
icantly faster, 39.8 percent, nearly twice as fast as the 20.1percent increase in total employment. Group III employment
increased 27.3 percent and group I, only 23.6 percent. Over
the period, each group increased slightly as a percentage of
total wage and salary employment, group I from 13.1 to
13.4 percent, group II from 2.4 to 2.8 percent, and group
III, from 5.8 to 6.2 percent.
The contribution of high tech industries to total employ
ment growth over this period, no matter how high tech is
defined, was relatively small. Group I accounted for 15.3
percent of new wage and salary jobs, group II, 4.7 percent,
and group III, 7.9 percent.
Growth was not steady. For example, when wage and
salary employment declined below its 1980 level during the
1981-82 recession, employment in group I, which includes
some cyclical industries, also declined. During this period,
employment in group III held steady, and group II continued
to grow, despite the recession.
Among the industries included in the high technology
groups, growth rates varied widely during 1972-82. Com
puter and data processing services had the fastest growth,
235.1 percent, followed by communication services, 206.4,
crude petroleum and natural gas extraction, 102.2, office,
E m ploym ent in three g ro u p s 1 of high technology in dustries, 1972, 1980, 1982, and projected 1995
[In thousands]
Projected 1995 employment
alternatives
Employment
Percent change
Employment grouping
1972
1980
All wage and salary workers........ 76,547.0 92,611.2
1982
Low
Moderate
High
1972-80 1972-82
1980-95
Low
1982-95
Moderate
High
Low
Moderate
High
115,382.9 117,744.9 120,531.1
21.0
20.1
24.6
27.1
30.1
25.5
28.1
31.1
Group I ................................... 9,989.7 12,550.1 12,349.6 16,260.7 16,612.9 16,931.6
Percent of total employment . . .
13.1
13.6
13.4
14.1
14.1
14.0
25.6
—
23.6
—
29.6
—
32.4
—
34.9
—
31.7
—
34.5
—
37.1
—
Group I I ................................... 1,819.4 2,486.9 2,543.0
Percent of total employment . . .
2.4
2.7
2.8
3,517.5
3.0
3,409.6
2.9
3,452.9
2.9
36.7
—
39.8
—
37.1
—
38.8
—
38.3
—
34.1
—
35.8
—
Group III ................................. 4,468.9 5,694.8 5,691.1
Percent of total employment . . .
5.8
6.2
6.2
7,746.6
6.7
7,719.8
6.6
7,890.0
6.5
27.4
—
27.3
—
41.4
—
36.0
—
35.6
—
38.5
36.1
—
35.6
—
38.6
—
91 , 950.1
—
1Each group equals the sum of employment in detailed industries listed in Table 1.
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53
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • High Technology Today and Tomorrow
computing, and accounting machines, 88.6, and optical in
struments, 84.7. Radio and TV receiving equipment de
clined by 32.2 percent, household appliances by 24.0, motor
vehicles by 21.2, and plastic materials and synthetics, by
20.1 percent. Some of the declines in employment are di
rectly attributed to the 1981-82 recession.
Employment through 1995
Every other year, the Bureau prepares employment pro
jections of roughly 12 years by industry under alternative
scenarios. The latest projections of moderate, high, and low
growth extend through 1995.10 Because of employment de
clines in certain industries in 1981 and 1982, projected
growth in wage and salary employment and employment in
groups I and III is actually greater from 1982 to 1995 than
from 1980. in group II, which had increasing employment
from 1980 to 1982, this is not the case. For each of the
three groups, using either 1980 or 1982 as a base, high tech
employment is projected to grow somewhat faster than total
wage and salary employment under all three alternatives.
(See table 2.)
For group II, the low growth alternatives shows higher
1995 employment than the moderate alternative. This is
because higher defense spending is assumed in the low
alternative than in the moderate alternative, and group II
has a high proportion of its employment in three defenserelated industries, communication equipment, aircraft and
parts, and guided missiles and space vehicles. In addition,
these projections indicate that certain industries which grew
very rapidly over the 1972-82 period, including computer
and data processing services and office, computing, and
accounting machines, will grow at a slower rate over the
1982—95 period, although still well above the average for
all industries.
High tech and displaced workers. The Bureau’s projections
indicate that between 23.4 and 28.6 million new wage and
T able 4. P rojected 1 9 8 2 -9 5 grow th in technology-oriented
occupations
[In thousands]
Employment
Occupa
tional
group
Change 1982-95
Projected 1995
1982
Low
Mod
erate
High
Number
Low
Percent
Mod
High
Low Mod High
erate
erate
All occupa
tions . . . . 101,510 124,846 127,110 129,902 23,336 25,600 28,392 23.0 25.2 28.0
sional . . . 16,584 21,545 21,775 22,325 4,961 5,191 5,741 29.9 31.3 34.6
Technology
oriented . . 3,287 4,777 4,795 4,907 1,490 1,508 1,620 45.3 45.9 49.3
salary jobs will be created between 1982 and 1995. We
estimate that between 1.0 and 4.6 million of these jobs will
be in high technology industries. Growth in group I will
account for 16 or 17 percent of all new jobs, depending on
the projection used, while growth in group II will account
for 3 or 4 percent and group III, 8 or 9 percent. The great
majority of new jobs will be in industries other than high
technology. Therefore, displaced workers and others seek
ing jobs, and governmental and community organizations
seeking to attract jobs to their regions, would be well advised
not to limit their search to high tech industries only.
One additional factor may have a negative effect on the
ability of high tech industries to save economically de
pressed industries and provide jobs for displaced workers.
The occupational composition of many rapidly growing high
tech industries is significantly different from other manu
facturing industries that have suffered in recent years. For
example, about three-fourths of the workers in the blast
furnaces and basic steel industry and the motor vehicles
industry are blue-collar workers. These are the workers who
have been displaced. However, many high tech industries,
especially those projected to grow the fastest, have a much
smaller proportion of their workers in these occupations.
(See table 3.)
High technology occupations
Table 3. O ccupational distribution in selected rapidly
g row ing high-technology industries and the m otor vehicle
m anufacturing and blast furnaces and basic steel
in dustries, 1980
[In percent]
Occupation
Total..............
White-collar..........
Tech-oriented. . . .
Engineers
Life and
physical
scientists . . .
Mathematical
specialists. . .
Engineering and
science
technicians . .
Computer
specialists. . .
Blue-collar............
Service . . . . . .
54
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Office,
computing,
Electronic
and
accounting components
machines
Computer
and data
processing
services
Blast
furnaces
and basic Motor
vehicles
steel
products
100.0
66.3
27.3
11.9
100.0
37.7
15.0
7.2
100.0
96.0
26.0
1.7
100 0
17 7
39
1.8
.1
.2
.1
.2
(1)
(1)
(3)
(1)
1.5
4
80 2
2.1
8.8
6.4
2.7
6.5
32.7
1.0
1.2
61.0
1.3
21.2
3.4
.6
100.0
20.2
5.9
3.4
1.7
.5
76.8
3.0
High technology occupations have also been the subject
of much concern recently, although here too data on current
and projected employment and clear definitions of what
occupations are included have been lacking.
Occupations which clearly meet the definition of high
technology workers are engineers, life and physical scien
tists, mathematical specialists, engineering and science
technicians, and computer specialists. Most workers in these
technology-oriented occupations are directly involved in de
veloping or applying new technologies.11 Their work re
quires in-depth knowledge of theories and principles of
science, engineering, and mathematics underlying technol
ogy— a knowledge which distinguishes them from computer
operators, computer service technicians and other high tech
machinery repairers, or workers in a wide range of occu
pations who use word processing machines, computers or
other high technology products, but rarely have— or need—
such in-depth knowledge. Workers in these technology-
oriented occupations generally need specialized post-high
school education in some field of technology— ranging from
an associate degree or its equivalent to a doctorate— edu
cation with a thorough high school preparation in science
and mathematics as a prerequisite.
Technology-oriented workers, while essential to the de
velopment of technology, are relatively few in number and
will account for a relatively small proportion of new jobs
through 1995. In 1982, technology-oriented employment
totaled 3.3 million, or about 3.2 percent of total employ
ment. (See table 4.) Through 1995, this employment is
projected to show growth ranging from 45.3 to 49.3 percent,
much faster than the 23- to 28-percent increase projected
for all wage and salary workers. This growth is expected
to generate between 1.5 and 1.6 million new jobs over the
13-year period. These occupations are projected to account
for 6 percent of all new jobs in the economy, roughly the
same proportion as during the 197CTs.
Local employment levels
High technology employment is not expected to take up
the slack in job generation caused by the long-term decline
in heavy durable goods industries, including those we have
defined as high tech. What is true for the Nation as a whole
of course, does not hold for certain States and areas. (See
charts 1 and 2.) High technology employment can have a
C h art 2. T h e proportion of high technology w orkers by State in six industries1 com pared w ith the
average for all industries, 1982
0 to 49 percent
EMSj 50,0 99
|
| 100 to 199
200 and above
11ndustries in which the ratio of R&D
expenditures to net sales is at least twice
the national average. Group II in text.
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55
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • High Technology Today and Tomorrow
Table 5. M etropolitan areas ranked by high technology em ploym ent levels and percentages of total nonaq ricultu ral em olovm ent in three States, Septem ber 1982
[In t h o u s an d s]
Group 1
State
SMSA1
Number of
employees
Group II
Percent
SMSA1
Number of
employees
Group III
Percent
SMSA1
Number of
employees
C al i f or n i a, t o t a l .....................................
1,523.3
6 16.3
930.0
T o p 5 a r e a s , total
1,3 2 1 .1
574.5
848.4
..............................
T o p 5 a r e a s a s p e r c e n t o f S t a t e ’s
h i g h t e c h e m p l o y m e n t ...............
T e x a s , total
86.7
606.3
17.2
Lo s An geles
2 59.5
7.4
261.3
37.5
San Jo s e
169.5
24.3
Anaheim
175.7
20.9
Anaheim
78.4
32.7
9.3
Anaheim
121.3
14.4
1 7 3 .0
1 1. 1
San Die go
45 .1
6.8
S an Fra ncisco
67.4
4.3
15.8
San Francisco
22.0
1.4
S an Die go
67.0
10.1
1,016.8
154.4
3 62.3
739.2
134.0
2 86.3
72.7
86.8
79.0
Houston
349.1
22.0
D al la s
102.0
6.6
D al l a s
284.5
18 .4
Ho u st o n
10 .4
.7
Houston
86.9
5.5
San An ton io
3 6 .4
8.7
Austin
10.4
3.8
Beaumont
24.0
Beaumont
16.2
35.3
23.8
San Anton io
7 .1
1.7
Au stin
Austin
21.6
33.9
8.1
12.6
Lubbock
4.3
4.8
S an An ton io
12.9
3. 1
623.4
..............................
T o p 5 a r e a s a s p e r c e n t of S t a t e ’s
h i g h t e c h e m p l o y m e n t ...............
10.4
2 27.7
1 0 4 .8
......................................
T o p 5 a r e a s , t otal
3 65.0
San Diego
T o p 5 a r e a s a s p e r c e n t of S t a t e ' s
M i c h i g a n , total
Lo s An g ele s
San Jose
S an Francisco
..............................
h i g h t e c h e m p l o y m e n t ...............
91.2
Lo s A n geles
San Jo se
.............................................
T o p 5 a r e a s , total
93.2
Percent
D e t ro i t
D a l la s
140.9
28.8
118.4
490.3
24.5
88.3
78.6
85.1
9.1
74.6
325.5
21.0
D e t ro i t
11.7
.8
Flint
48 .1
3.1
59.2
33.9
K a la mazoo
7.9
7.5
G ra n d R apid s
Ailn A r b o r
15.8
37.4
28.5
Muskegon
2.2
3.9
Ka la m a zoo
G ra nd Rapid s
34.9
10.6
13.3
6.0
10.0
G ra n d Rapid s
1.4
.6
Ann Arbor
Lansing
9.5
7.2
33.3
18.6
Ben to n H a r b o r
1.3
2.4
Muskegon
4.3
7.6
D et r o i t
' S t a n d a r d M e t r o p o l i t a n Sta ti st ica l A r e a
large impact on a local economy. Local success stories
include California’s Silicon Valley and the Route 128 area
in Massachusetts and New Hampshire.12 In a relatively short
period, these areas have developed substantial industrial
bases built on high technology industries.
We analyzed data on the distribution of high technology
employment in three States— California, Michigan and Texas.
The results are shown in table 5 .13
Regardless of the definition used, we found most em
ployment to be located in the largest metropolitan areas.
The top five areas in each State accounted for between 72.7
and 93.2 percent of the high tech jobs, depending on the
State and definition used. Nonagricultural employment in
these areas ranged from 63.7 to 74.2 percent of all em
ployment in each State. Thus, the distribution of high tech
nology employment appears to be concentrated within the
States.
In California, the Los Angeles area, with a large aero
space industry, shows the highest level of high technology
employment by a large margin over San Jose. However,
the San Jose area, which contains “ Silicon Valley,” has
the highest proportion of high tech jobs in California, re
gardless of definition. In the San Jose area, from a quarter
to more than one-third of the jobs are in high tech industries.
Texas ranked second, third, and fourth in the number of
high technology jobs. Because of its size and large em
ployment base, however, it ranked no higher than eighth in
the proportion of workers in high tech jobs. When scruti
nized at the metropolitan level, however, several Texas
areas emerge as high technology centers.
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Dallas provided over 100,000 high technology jobs, re
gardless of definition. The Houston area is also a major
source of jobs, while Beaumont shows a large proportion
of high tech jobs in groups I and III, primarily because of
its chemical and petroleum refining industries.
Michigan has a high proportion of high technology jobs
in group I, which includes auto manufacturing. (See table
6). With groups II and III, Michigan ranks 14th and 39th
among all States. Detroit, under the group III definition,
shows almost 50,000 high technology jobs, and the Kala
mazoo area displays a smaller proportion of high tech work
ers (7.5 and 10.0 percent in groups II and III).
Outside of those two areas, high technology industry does
not appear to be a major factor in the Michigan economy
unless auto manufacturing remains in the high technology
definition.
If we look at the nonmetropolitan proportion of high tech
employment in the three States, we find that California has
1.6 percent in group I, .4 percent in group II, and .5 percent
in group III; Texas, 10.4, 4.0, and 5.8; and Michigan, 9.5,
7.8, and 15.6.
Few counties outside metropolitan areas have many high
tech jobs. (Hutchinson County in Texas is an exception,
with more than 5,000 in group I, and almost 2,500 in group
III.)
Employment by State
In 1982, the share of the Nation’s high technology em
ployment in the 10 States with the highest levels of high
tech employment ranged from 57.4 to 66 percent among
our three groups, while these States had only 54.1 percent
of the total U.S. nonfarm employment. (See table 6.) Eight
States— California, New York, Texas, Massachusetts, New
Jersey, Florida, Illinois, and Pennsylvania, appear on all
three lists. All were also among the 10 States with the most
nonagricultural employment in 1982. Only two States not
among the top 10 in employment appear on the three lists—
Washington and Connecticut— largely because each had
more than 10 percent of the national employment in aircraft
and parts (sic 372), which appears in all three high tech
nology definitions.
California not only heads each list but does so by a large
margin. New York’s total nonagricultural employment was
74 percent of California’s in 1982, but it had only half of
California’s high technology employment in group III, and
about a third of its group II employment, illustrating the
importance of definitions.
Has the concentration of high tech employment within
the larger States increased over the last several years? The
following shows the percentage of total U.S. high technol
ogy employment in the top 5 States under each definition
for selected years from 1975 to 1982:
1975
Group I ..................
Group II ................
Group I I I ................
1977
38.4
46.7
41.6
37.8
47.1
40.9
1979
1982
38.3
47.6
40.4
37.4
47.5
40.7
The concentration of high technology employment in the
largest States does not appear to be increasing, regardless
of the definition used.
As we have seen, comparing a State's high technology
employment to its total nonagricultural employment pro
duces a much different picture than looking at absolute lev
els. Small States appear on these lists, as a broad spectrum
of industries in large States tends to overshadow small groups
of emerging industries. Only under the broadest definition—
group I— do as many as 5 of the 10 States with the most
nonfarm employment qualify. Under the most restrictive
definition— group II— only two large States are included.
Table 6. E m ploym ent in three groups of high technology
industries in 10 S tates with highest levels of high
technology em ploym ent, annual ave ra g e s ,1 1982
[In t h o u s an d s]
Group 1
Tota l, U . S .
Group II
13,038.3
Group III
T ot al, U . S .
2,633.7
T otal, U . S .
5,943.4
1 ,737.4
T o p 1 0 S ta t es
3,566.6
T o p 1 0 S t at e s
7,489.5
T o p 1 0 S t at e s
Ca l i f or n i a
1,52 7 .5
C a l i fo r n i a
610.6
Texas
1,06 8 .4
C a l i f or n ia
9 33.1
New York
205.3
New York
493.4
9 24.0
Massachussetts
160.7
Te xa s
3 72.0
O hio
6 83.0
Te xa s
1 5 7 .6
N e w Je r se y
3 16.8
I ll inoi s
672.0
N e w Je r se y
116.9
Massa c hu ss etts
3 05.5
108.1
Pen nsylvania
277.0
New York
Michigan
6 51.0
F lo r i d a
P e n n sylvania
6 15.4
Co n n e cti cu t
New Jersey
5 21.7
Ill inoi s
Massachusetts
4 50.0
Pen nsylvania
F lo r i d a
3 76.5
W ashington
90.2
98.5
I ll inoi s
2 61.5
96.2
Oh io
247.8
93.3
C o nnecticut
185.8
F l o ri d a
173.7
' B e c a u s e f o u r t h q u a r t e r 1 9 8 2 d at a w e r e n o t a va i la b le at t he t i m e of p u b l i c a t i o n , a 9 m o n t h a ve rage w a s used.
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Table 7. High technology em ploym ent as a percent of
total nonagricultural em ploym ent in top 10 States under
th ree definitions, 1982 annual a v e ra g e 1
Group 1
Total, U.S.
Delaware..........
New Hampshire . .
Michigan..........
Connecticut........
Vermont............
Indiana..............
Massachussetts
Texas................
New Jersey........
Kansas..............
Ohio................
Group II
13.4
24.0
21.0
20.4
20.3
18.9
17.6
17.2
17.0
16.9
16.5
16.5
Total, U.S.
2.8
New Hampshire . . 7.2
Vermont............ 7.0
Connecticut........ 6.9
Arizona............ 6.8
California.......... 6.2
Massachussetts
6.1
Washington........ 5.7
Kansas.............. 4.7
Utah................ 4.2
Colorado.......... . 3.9
Group III
Total, U.S.
Delaware..........
Connecticut . . . .
New Hampshire . .
Vermont..........
Massachussetts
New Jersey . . . .
California..........
Arizona............
Washington . . . .
Kansas ............
6.2
16.2
13.0
12.5
11.7
11.7
10.3
9.5
9.0
8.2
7.8
19 m o n t h a v e r a g e .
It is noteworthy that Massachusetts, despite its size, is on
all three lists. (See table 7).
Turning again to group I, we find 46 States had 10 percent
or more of their nonagricultural employment in high tech
nology industries. However, in group II no State had more
than 7.2 percent of high tech employment.
The performance of Delaware under the three definitions
is quite interesting. It tops groups I and III with 24.0 and
16.2 percent of its nonfarm employment in high technology.
In group II, however, Delaware places 42nd in the Nation,
with only .8 percent. Groups I and III both include the entire
chemical manufacturing industry (sic 28). Group II only
includes drug manufacturing (sic 283). Because more than
10 percent of the total employment in Delaware is in chem
ical manufacturing (about 10 times the national proportion),
any high technology definition which includes the entire
chemical industry places Delaware at or near the top in the
proportion of high tech employment.
A regional pacesetter
The relative importance of high technology among States,
however, no matter how defined, shows that the New En
gland States lead other regions in the proportion of high
technology employment. The New England area has pro
vided the ideal environment for these industries. Preeminent
educational institutions provide the needed skilled workers.
Also, for many decades the area has had a decaying indus
trial base. In 1947, Massachusett’s leading nondurable man
ufacturing industries were textiles, apparel, and leather, with
a total employment of almost 250,000 workers. In 1982,
employment in those industries totaled slightly more than
75,000 workers. The departure of the textile and apparel
industry to the South and overseas left behind an industrial
infrastructure, coupled with an awareness of the need to
attract and foster industrial development. New England States
(with the exception of Massachusetts) also tend to be small,
making, as noted, the impact of high technology employ
ment more noticeable.14
Although for the Nation as a whole, high technology
industries generated only between 4.7 and 15.3 percent of
the new jobs in the United States during 1972-82, several
57
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • High Technology Today and Tomorrow
States showed greater growth. Even in narrowly defined
group II, nine States saw high tech jobs account for 10
percent or more of the rise in their total employment between
1975 and 1982. In Massachusetts, growth exceeded 18 per
cent. (See table 8.) Maine, absent from the top 10 in per
centage of high tech employment, appears to have experienced
significant job generating effects from high tech expansion
under the group II definition.
However, care must be used in analyzing the impact of
high technology growth in a State. A State may register a
large increase in high tech jobs in a generally expanding
economy, or a modest gain in a stagnant economy. Ex
amples of both situations appear in all three groups of high
tech industries. Massachusetts, which tops groups II and III
and ranks fourth in group I, is an example of the first sit
uation. Massachusetts ranked 10th in total job creation be
tween 1975 and 1982 and depending on definition, 3rd,
2nd, or 4th in high tech job generation. South Dakota, which
ranks 1st, 8th, and 3rd in percentage growth of high tech
jobs, added a total of only about 20,000 new jobs, one of
the smallest increases in the country. However, a large
Tab le 8. High technology em ploym ent grow th as a
p ercentage of total nonagricultural em ploym ent grow th in
top ten States, 1 9 7 5 -8 2 , under three definitions
Group I
Group II
Tota l, U . S .
S o u t h Da kota
. . .
N e w H am psh ir e
. .
21.0
Tota l, U . S .
49 .1
Massachussetts
Group III
5.8
T otal, U . S .
11.3
18.3
Massachussetts
30.0
43 .1
N e w Hampshire
15.8
V e r m o n t ...................
26.9
38.7
V e r m o n t ......................
11.5
S o u t h Da kota
. . .
25 .1
. .
Massachussetts
35.2
A r i z o n a .......................
10.6
N e w Ha m psh ire . .
25.0
N e b r a s k a ...................
33 .1
M a i n e ..........................
10.1
C o n n e c ti c u t
21.4
R h o d e I sla nd. . . .
32.6
C a l i f o r n i a ...................
10.0
I d a h o ..........................
19.9
I d a h o ..............................
32.4
O r e g o n ..........................
10.0
M a r y l a n d ...................
19.9
M o n t a n a .......................
31.5
S o u t h Dakota
. . .
10.0
Di s t r i c t of
D e l a w a r e ...................
30.7
W a s h i n g t o n ...............
10.0
C o l o r a d o ...................
30.3
Rh o d e Isla nd. . . .
9.1
Colum bia
R h o d e I s l an d
. . . .
. . . .
19.8
. . .
19.2
O r e g o n .......................
18.0
proportion (10.0 to 49.1 percent— according to definition)
were high tech, such as those within electrical and non
electrical machinery manufacturing (sic 35 and 36).
It
that even when high tech is very
broadly defined, as in group I, it has provided and is ex
pected to provide a relatively small proportion of employ
ment. Thus, for the foreseeable future the bulk of employment
expansion will take place in non-high tech fields.
s h
o
u
l d
b e
r
e i t e r
a t e d
FOOTNOTES
1Robert Vinson and Paul Harrington, Defining High Technology Indus
tries in Massachusetts (Boston, Mass., Department of Manpower Devel
U.S. Industries” (Washington, U .S. Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Industrial Economics, Industrial Economics Review, Spring 1982), p. 12.
opment, September 1979.)
l()See Arthur J. Andreassen, Norman C. Saunders, and Betty W. Su,
“ The economic outlook for the 1990's: three scenarios for economic growth;"
Valerie A. Personick, “ The job outlook through 1995: industry output and
employment projections,” and Howard N Fullerton and John Tschetter,
“ The 1995 labor force: a second look,” elsewhere in this issue.
21bid.
3Technology, Innovation, and Regional Economic Development (Wash
ington, U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, Sept. 9, 1982).
This 14-page report describes a project to assess the implications of high
technology to include factors which promote the development of high
technology industries in States and localities.
4An Assessment of U.S. Competitiveness in High Technology Industries
(Washington, U .S. Department of Commerce, International Trade Ad
ministration, February 1983), 68 pp. See, particularly, Appendix A, “ De
fining Technology Intensive Trade,” pp. 3 3-37.
5 Ibid. See also Michael Boretsky, “ Concerns About the Present Amer
ican Position in International Trade,” Technology and International Trade
(Washington, National Academy of Sciences, 1971), and “ The Threat to
U.S. High Technology Industries: Economic and National Security Im
plications,” draft (Washington, U .S. Department of Commerce, Inter
national Trade Administration, March 1982).
Ibid. See also Regina Kelly, “ Research and Development in U.S. Trade
in Manufactures,” paper prepared for International Economics Course,
George Washington University, 1974, and “ The Impact of Technological
Innovation on International Trade Patterns,” Staff Economic Report,
(Washington, U .S. Department of Commerce, Office of Economic Re
search, December 1977).
7 Ibid. See also C. Michael Aho, and Howard F. Rosen, “ Trends in
Technology-Intensive Trade,” Economic Discussion Paper 9 (Washing
ton, U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of International Labor Affairs,
October 1980).
8 Ibid. See also Lester A. Davis, “ Technology Intensity of U.S. Output
and Trade,” (Washington, U.S. Department of Commerce, International
Trade Administration, July 1982.)
4 Ann M. Lawson, “ Technological Growth and High Technology in
58
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11 Some managerial jobs also involve the development and application
of technology, and many of these jobs are filled by workers transferring
from these “ technology-oriented” occupations. Data are not available to
identify this group.
12 “ America Rushes to High Technology for Growth,” Business Week,
March 28, 1983, p. 87.
13The industry employment statistics cited in this study are from two
Bureau of Labor Statistics payroll employment programs. The industry
classifications are taken from the 1972 Standard Industrial Classification
Manual, Office of Management and Budget.
Employment estimates for the Nation were compiled from the Current
Employment Statistics program. These data are produced from employer
payroll records reported to the Bureau on a voluntary basis each month.
Self-employed persons and others not on a regular civilian payroll are
outside the scope of the survey.
State and county data were compiled from the ES-202 program, which
collects information on the employment and wages of workers covered by
unemployment insurance programs. Each quarter all covered employers
submit mandatory reports of employment and wages to the appropriate
State Employment Security Agency. _These reports are edited and sum
marized by county, State, and detailed industry, and forwarded to the
Bureau. Self-employed persons are not covered in this statistical program.
14 For more on the factors which enabled New England to become a
leading area in high technology, see Lynn E. Browne and John S. Hekman,
“ New England’s Economy in the 80’s ,” New England Economic Review,
January/February 1981, pp. 5 -1 6 .
Import prices decline, export indexes mixed
in the first 6 months of 1983
Lower oil prices and the strength o f the dollar
were major factors in import-export price developments
during the first half o f the year;
the Nation s strong economic recovery
relative to the performance abroad
also affected U.S. foreign trade prices
M ark J. Johnson
U.S. import prices, as measured by the Bureau of Labor
Statistics International Price Program, fell 2.8 percent in
the first half of 1983, after falling 2.9 percent for all of
1982.' (See table 1.) The import price drop contributed to
the greatly reduced rate of increase in domestic inflation,
as measured by the Consumer Price Index and the Producer
Price Index.2 At the same time, however, the strength of
the U.S. dollar abroad and the slow pace of the worldwide
economic recovery moderated price rises for U.S. exports.
The price indexes discussed in this article, which are not
seasonally adjusted, are based on transaction price infor
mation provided by a sample of importers and exporters and
their products.3 They represent 100 percent of the value of
all imported products, and 83 percent of the value of all
exported products. Indexes are published for 60 detailed and
aggregate categories of imports and exports.
An overview
Crude oil prices, which account for 25.8 percent of the
weight o f the all-import price index, fell 13.6 percent during
the first half, exerting substantial downward pressure on the
index. The all-import index, excluding crude petroleum,
Mark J. Johnson is an economist in the Division of International Prices,
Bureau of Labor Statistics.
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
rose by 0.9 percent during the first half, compared with a
2.5-percent decline for all of 1982. Partially offsetting the
price decrease for crude oil were increases in the indexes
for nonferrous metals and for machinery and transport equip
ment, which rose 13.0 and 2.6 percent.
The strong U.S. dollar was a major factor affecting the
all-import price index. During the first half, the dollar rose
5.0 percent vis-à-vis the currencies of our major trading
partners. (In the first quarter, the dollar depreciated against
the German Deutschemark and the Japanese yen, but reg
istered a net first-half appreciation against the Deutschemark
and little net change against the yen.) Between July 1980
and June 1983, the dollar appreciated steadily, rising 47.9
percent.4 (See chart 1.) This sustained rise in the dollar’s
value tended to lower the price of imported goods priced in
dollars, but acted to raise the price of U.S. goods sold in
foreign markets. The dollar’s appreciation against certain
currencies was especially strong. From June 1982 to June
1983, the dollar rose 212‘.3 percent against the Mexican
peso, 208.5 percent against the Brazilian cruzeiro, 16.5
percent against the French franc, and 13.5 percent against
the British pound.
The nascent U.S. economic recovery in the first half
boosted demand for imports by consumers and producers.
Personal consumption spending increased 5.7 percent, and
consumer spending on durables rose 9.6 percent.5 Respond-
59
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
November 1983 • Import and Export Price Indexes
ing to healthier consumer spending, many sectors of the
economy increased output, and demand for imported inputs
to manfacturing processes grew.
U.S. industrial production rose 8.3 percent during the
first half. Especially important were the sharp production
increases in the auto and housing industries. Domestic auto
production advanced 24.3 percent in the first half over the
corresponding weak period in 1982,6 generating additional
demand for imported inputs such as engines, rubber, and
aluminum.
With interest rates lower, U.S. housing starts rebounded
strongly in the first half from their worst year since 1946,
finishing 78.7 percent above the corresponding period in
the previous year.7 Moreover, new construction put in place
during the first half totaled $115.6 billion, compared with
$106.3 billion for the first half of 1982. Growing construc
tion activity meant increased business for suppliers of prod
ucts such as lumber, appliances, and copper.
Key export price indexes registering increases were those
for grain and intermediate manufactured products, which
rose 14.5 and 2.1 percent.8 (See table 2.) However, the
index for bituminous coal fell 12.6 percent in the first half.
Export prices and total dollar values were heavily affected
by the strong dollar; U.S. merchandise exports of $98.4
billion in the first half were off 11.0 percent from their level
of $110.6 billion in the corresponding period last year.4
The slower pace of economic recovery among both in
dustrialized and developing nations also dampened demand
for U.S. exports. The European Economic Community ( e e c ),
Table 1.
which includes major U.S. trading partners, experienced
very little economic growth in the first half. In particular,
the economies of France and Italy continued to decline,
while Germany and Britain experienced growth much less
than that of the United States. The economy of Mexico, the
Nation’s third-largest trading partner, contracted signifi
cantly, while demand for U.S. exports by many other oil
exporting nations fell as oil revenues declined.
Debt problems among developing nations were a major
factor in the sharp reduction of U.S. exports to these nations.
In the first half, exports to developing nations were $36.4
billion, off 16.1 percent from $43.4 billion in the first half
of 1982.10 In recent years, approximately 40 percent of U.S.
merchandise trade (both exports and imports) has been with
developing nations. (See chart 2.) However, about 40 na
tions, including such developing nations as Mexico, Brazil,
and Liberia, have recently undertaken economic austerity
programs that include reduced spending for imports, in order
to conserve scarce foreign exchange to service their inter
national debts. A case in point is Mexico, which purchased
$4.4 billion of U.S. m erch an d ise e x p o rts in the first half of
1983, compared with $7.2 billion in the first 6 months of
last y ear.11
The decline in total exports was a major factor in the
record-setting merchandise trade deficit of $23.5 billion for
the first half. This compares with deficits of $12.0 billion
in the first half of 1982 and $36.4 billion for all of that year.
In the first 6 months of 1983, merchandise imports of $121.9
billion were down slightly from $122.6 billion in the first
C hange in selected im port price indexes in the first half of 1983, and share of total trade value
Share
of
total
1980
trade
value
Commodity
Ail commodities, except chemicals1
Fuels and related products..................
Crude petroleum.............................
Percent change in—
First First Second
half quarter quarter
96.524 -2.8 -2.8
0.0
32.776 -12.3 -10.2 -2.4
25.799 -13.6 -10.8 -3.2
Food ...............................................
Coffee, tea, cocoa...........................
Coffee.......................................
Tea...........................................
Sugar, sugar preparations, and honey .
6.554
1.2 1.1
2.241
4.0 2.2
1.644 -1.5 -2.8
0.054 9.8 4.8
0.925 3.9 0.0
Meat ...............................................
Meat of bovine animals ..................
Meat and edible meat offals ............
Other prepared or preserved meat . . .
0.977 -3.8 -1.0 -2.9
0.652 6.5 2.8 3.6
0.243 -13.4 -3.0 -10.7
0.234 -13.8 -3.2 -11.0
Fish..................................................
Fresh fish .....................................
Shellfish .......................................
Fish in airtight containers................
1.088 -1.1 -0.5 -0.6
0.477 -2.5
0.9 -3.3
0.459 0.1 -1.5
1.6
0.126 -1.3 -1.0 -0.3
Crude materials.................................
Cork and wood...............................
Flardwood and softwood lumber . . .
Wood pulp ...................................
Sulphate or soda wood pulp ........
4.275 (2)
(2)
(2)
0.865 25.0 6.8 16.9
0.822 26.8 7.6 17.8
0.708 -2.3 -1.9 -0.4
0.563 -2.7 -1.8 -0.9
available in each category, see U.S.
60
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Im port and Export Price Indexes,
0.1
1.7
1.3
4.7
3.9
USDL-83-77
Commodity
Share
of
total
1980
trade
value
Intermediate manufactured products.......................
Nonferrous metals............................................
Silver and metals of the platinum group..........
Copper ......................................................
T in ............................................................
Zinc ..........................................................
Iron and steel..................................................
13 520
3 123
1.037
0.581
0.323
0.135
3.127
Cork and wood manufactures ...............................
Plywood and veneers.......................................
0 486
0.267
Nonmetallic mineral manufactures.........................
Cut and polished diamonds...............................
Machinery and transport equipment.......................
Road vehicles and parts...................................
Automobiles................................................
Metalworking machinery...................................
Machinery specialized for particular industries . . . .
Office machines and automatic data processing
equipment ..................................................
Miscellaneous manufactures.................................
Footwear ........................................................
Clothing ........................................................
Photographic apparatus and supplies, optical
goods, watches and clocks ...........................
2Data are not available.
Percent change in—
First First Second
half quarter quarter
2.9
13.0
17.0
16.4
-
11.0
1.1
-
2.2
1.3
6.9
13.6
7.6
6.5
- 1.2
1.6
5.8
3.0
8.2
4.3
0.1
2.0
-0.3
9.5
7.9
3.3
4.0
6.0
1 944
0.937
5.9
10.4
3.1
3.9
2.8
25.442
10 887
7.201
0.755
1.998
2.6
1.8
0.8
2.1
1.9
3.7
4.6
1.7 0.4
1.3 0.6
5.2 -1.4
3.9 0.7
1.217
2.4
2.6
- 0.2
-
3.7
6.3
9.794 - 1.0 -0.3 -0.7
1.232 -1.5
0.2 -1.7
2.666 - 1.0 - 1.0
0.0
1.162
1.0
2.4 -1.4
half of 1982, but nonoil imports, at $98.4 billion, were up
4.9 percent from $93.8 billion during the same period a
year earlier. (Petroleum imports of $23.5 billion were off
18.4 percent from their level of $28.8 billion in the cor
responding period of 1982.12) In addition, the U.S. current
account, which incorporates the balance on merchandise
trade and the balance on services (which includes payments
on investments abroad) was in deficit by $13.3 billion in
the first half, after recording a deficit of $11.2 billion in
1982 and a surplus of $4.6 billion in 1981.13
Gross trade as a percentage of U.S. final goods production
is a measure of the importance of foreign trade to the goods
sector of the econom y.14 Because of the decline in U.S.
export dollar values, the increase in domestic final goods
production, and the lack of change in import dollar values,
this proportion stood at 27.4 percent in the first half of 1983,
down from 29.9 percent in the first half of 1982. In 1970,
this figure was 15.9 percent.
C hart 1. Trad e-w eig h ted exch an g e rate of
the U.S. dollar, January 1 9 8 0 -J u n e 1983
Exchange rate index
(March 1973 = 100)
Import developments
Crude oil. The 13.6-percent drop in crude oil import prices
during the first half of 1983 followed a 3.9-percent decline
for all of 1982. Pressure for the price drop had been building
for 2 years, in the form of sluggish economic growth, in
creased substitution of other energy sources for oil, the
strong dollar, and continued conservation. In addition, the
warm winter of 1982—83 allowed U.S. oil companies to
draw down inventories and postpone purchases in antici
pation of price drops. On the supply side, decontrol of prices
in the United States, rising production by other non-OPEC
producers, and sales in excess of production quotas by some
o p e c members put further downward pressure on prices.
One result of these factors was the March 1983 decision by
o p e c to reduce its base price for a barrel of oil from $34
to $29. This action, the first cut in quoted prices in o p e c ’ s
23-year history, brought the organization’s prices in line
with those of non-OPEC producers, such as Mexico, Britain,
the Soviet Union, and Norway.
In 1982, U.S. consumption of crude oil fell for the fourth
consecutive y ear.15 This trend continued during the first half
of 1983. While the economy was recovering strongly from
the recession, total oil consumption remained 3.5 percent
below the level set during the first half of 1982.16 U.S.
imports of crude were 2.82 million barrels per day (mbd),
down 10 percent from 3.14 mbd in the corresponding 1982
period,17 primarily because of the decline in consumption
and the production effects of decontrol. In the first half,
energy imports (including crude oil, petroleum products,
coal, natural gas, and electricity) were 15.3 percent of total
U.S. energy consumption, down from 15.6 percent in the
first half of 1982.18
Conservation was important in the drop in U.S. demand
for oil, despite the fact that retail prices declined for many
products. Much of the conservation was part of the contin
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
S o u r c e : Federal Reserve Bulletin (Washington, Board of Gover
nors of the Federal Reserve System), July 1983, table 3.28.
uing response to the large oil price runups in 1973 and 197980. Gasoline use was off 0.6 percent in the first half from
the same period a year earlier, reflecting the effect of price
increases on demand, the greater efficiency of the U.S.
vehicle fleet, and continued diesel penetration.19 The av
erage retail price of gasoline fell to $1.12 per gallon during
the first half of 1983, an annual rate of decline of 6 percent.20
Still, first-half average gasoline prices were up 225 percent
from their level in the first half of 1973, the year that crude
oil prices quadrupled, while the total Consumer Price Index
rose only 127 percent.21 Demand for home heating oil fell
8.4 percent from the first half of 1982, due to the warm
winter and a drop in the number of domestic burners.22 The
average price of home heating oil was $1.11 in the first
half, down from the 1982 average of $1.19 per gallon and
the 1981 average of $1.21 per gallon.23
Utilities and industrial users have switched to nonoil en
ergy sources while increasing conservation efforts. Residual
fuel, the type used by utilities to generate electricity, has
been steadily displaced by coal, nuclear, and hydroelectric
power. In 1982, U.S. utilities burned 50 percent less oil
while producing 440 percent more nuclear power than they
did a decade earlier.24 Most industrial users have also found
ways to use less oil. For example, many steelmakers have
converted to continuous casting technology, a process that
uses 40 to 60 percent less energy than conventional mills.
In recent years, cement plants continued to switch from oil
to coal firing.25
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MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
November 1983 • Import and Export Price Indexes
Table 2. C hange in selected e xp ort price in d e xe s1 in the
firs t half o f 1983 and share of tota l trade value
Share Perceit change in—
of total
1980 First First Second
Commodity
trade half quarter quarter
value
Grain and grain preparations............................... 8.341 14.5 7.2
6.8
0.2
Wheat.......................................................... 2.943 -0.8 -1.0
Yellow corn .................................................. 3.956 25.7 13.1 11.2
Other grain ................................................. 0.522 (4
(2)
(2)
Yellow sorghum ........................................... 0.498 22.3 10.0 11.2
Crude materials ...............................................
Oilseeds and oleaginous fru it...........................
Soybeans ..................................................
Textile fibers ...............................................
Cotton......................................................
Metalliferous ores and metal scrap ...................
Scrap metal of iron or steel .........................
10.948
3.024
2.716
1.813
1.341
2.062
0.566
(2)
(2)
5.0 -2.0
6.7 -0.2
11.2 2.5
17.3 4.4
(2)
(2)
16.0 7.4
(2)
7.2
7.0
8.5
12.3
(2)
8.0
Fuels and related products ................................. 3.691 (2)
(2)
(2)
Bituminous coal ........................................... 2.088 -12.6 -2.6 -10.2
Intermediate manufactured products.....................
Nonferrous metals.........................................
Silver........................................................
Copper ......................................................
Aluminum..................................................
Leather and furskins .....................................
Iron and steel...............................................
10.544
2.1 1.5
2.280 10.7 8.0
0.772 28.7 28.0
0.204
3.9 3.9
0.919
7.4 0.9
0.200
2.8 0.2
1.438 -2.0 -2.8
0.6
2.5
0.5
0.0
6.5
2.6
0.7
Machinery and transport equipment .....................
General industrial machinery and parts..............
Telecommunications equipment .......................
Electrical machinery and equipment..................
Other transport equipment...............................
General aviation aircraft and helicopters............
35.261
1.0 0.4
4.939
1.0 0.8
1.590
1.2 0.7
4.738 -0.1 -0.7
2.4 1.5
2.718
0.479
2.7 2.0
0.5
0.3
0.5
0.6
0.9
0.7
Miscellaneous manufactured articles.................... 7.397 (2)
(2)
(2)
- Professional, scientific, and controlling
instruments and apparatus........................... 2.437
4.2 2.6
1.6
Photographic apparatus, optical goods,
watches and clocks ................................... 1.187 -2.3 -3.5
1.2
Tor all of the indexes available in each category, see U.S. Im port and Export Price
Indexes, USDL-83-77 (Bureau of Labor Statistics), Aug. 11, 1983.
2Data are not available.
The strong dollar has also played an important part in
holding down oil prices. Because the dollar appreciated
strongly against the currencies of most major industrialized
nations in the last three years, those nations have had to
pay larger amounts of their currencies to obtain dollars to
purchase oil. This has further depressed oil demand in world
markets.
The United States continued to import an increasing per
centage of its crude oil needs from non-OPEC sources during
the first half, part of a trend that gained momentum during
1982. Leading suppliers were Mexico, at 849,000 barrels
per day, Canada, at 523,000, Venezuela, at 401,000, and
Britain, at 348,000. Of these, only Venezuela is an o p e c
member, o p e c members supplied 31.9 percent of U.S. oil
imports, compared with 42.0 percent during 1982 and 55.4
percent in 1981.26 The level of crude oil imports from Saudi
Arabia is especially noteworthy: in the first half, the United
States imported an average of 179,000 barrels per day of
Saudi crude, compared with 552,000 barrels per day in 1982
and 1.1 million in 1981.
Food. The price index for food imports rose 1.2 percent
during the first 6 months of 1983, after rising 0.2 percent
for all of 1982. Food imports totaled $8.5 billion in the first
half, compared with $7.6 billion during the same period a
62
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
year earlier. The food index is one of the most volatile
components of the all-import index because of the uncer
tainties associated with food production, the varying impact
of weather conditions, and the difficulty of shipping perish
able products.
Prices for coffee, tea, and cocoa rose 4.0 percent, leading
the rise in the food index. Cocoa price increases reflected
poor harvests in the Ivory Coast and Ecuador. The tea index
rose 9.8 percent because of lower output by Sri Lanka and
Indonesia and relatively low stock levels in several major
importing nations. Coffee prices fell 1.8 percent during the
first half, due to plentiful supplies and the continued general
decline in U.S. coffee consumption. The International Cof
fee Organization, whose producing members account for 99
percent of world production, lowered member nations’ ex
port quotas in an effort to stabilize coffee prices.27 Despite
this action, however, some members sold coffee at a dis
count to other nations, many of which are in the Eastern
bloc,28 placing additional downward pressure on coffee prices.
The index for sugar and honey rose 3.9 percent, with all
of the increase occurring in the second quarter. World sugar
prices were about 12 cents per pound in June, compared
with 6.2 cents at the same time last year. The second-quarter
price rise was prompted by speculation following reports
that weather problems in the third quarter might affect next
season’s output in major sugar producing regions.29 Spec
ulative activity also centered on the possibility of U.S. re
strictions on imports of sugar-containing formulations, which
were entering the country through a loophole in the existing
system of raw sugar import quotas. (On June 29, imports
of all sugar containing formulations were embargoed.30)
The decision by two major U.S. soft-drink makers to use
high-fructose corn syrup in their beverages placed down
ward pressure on prices of imported sugar. The move dem
onstrated the continuing displacement of sugar by the syrup,
the use of which is expected to reduce 1983 domestic sugar
consumption by 3 to 4 percent.31 Prices for imported honey
fell as an influx of lower-priced honey, mainly from China,
increased supplies on the U.S. market.
Imported meat prices fell 3.8 percent. Canned hams and
shoulders led the downward trend, dropping 13.8 percent
in the first half in response to abundant supplies of pork for
canned hams from Poland and Denmark and plentiful sup
plies on the domestic market. The beef and veal index,
which accounts for approximately two-thirds of the value
of the meat index, rose 6.5 percent in the first half. U.S.
demand for imported beef increased because of tight do
mestic supplies resulting from wet winter weather in the
major cattle breeding areas. At the same time, world pro
duction and exports of cattle declined as ranchers held cattle
to rebuild severely depleted herds. Supplies from Australia,
the world’s largest beef exporter, were limited by adverse
weather conditions, and exports by New Zealand, another
major U.S. beef supplier, also fell.
Fish prices declined 1.1 percent during the first half, in
response to a 2.5-percent drop in the index for fresh fish,
which reflected abundant supplies of cod, haddock, floun
der, and tuna. The index for shellfish showed a 0.1-percent
increase, as lobster supplies, which were tight at the be
ginning of the year, recovered to more typical levels by
June. M exico’s nationalization of its shrimp industry tended
to drive up shellfish prices. Supplies of Mexican shrimp
were difficult for U.S. importers to obtain, and the shrimp
that was available had risen dramatically in price. Prices
for canned fish fell 1.3 percent in the first half, largely due
to plentiful supplies of imported canned clams and sardines.
Crude materials. In general, indexes in the crude materials
category rose during the first 6 months of 1983. Because
products in this category are used extensively as raw ma
terials in manufacturing and construction, the quickening
of the U.S. economy generated additional demand for them.
The United States imported $4.8 billion of such products
in the first half, compared with $4.7 billion during the first
half of 1982.32
Lumber prices jumped 26.8 percent, rising 7.6 percent
in the first quarter and 17.8 percent in the second. Wood
prices had been depressed since 1979, and a significant
number of marginal suppliers were forced out of business.
Canada is the largest supplier of lumber to the United States,
and when this country, Saudi Arabia, and China all in
creased purchases of Canadian wood during the first half,
prices were driven up. Greater U.S. consumption of lumber
occurred despite a shift to construction of multifamily homes,
townhouses, and mobile homes, all of which require sig
nificantly less lumber per unit than single-family homes.
The construction of single-family homes did not rebound
as strongly as general housing construction.
The index for sulphate wood pulp fell 2.7 percent as
weakened demand caused many suppliers to discount their
prices. Use of pulp products is directly related to kraft paper
and paperboard sales. Packaging is the chief use for the
unbleached grades and the bleached pulp is used in a wide
range of applications from packaging to printing.
Intermediate manufactured products. Large price increases
for cork and wood products and for nonferrous metals led
the 2.9-percent price rise in the index for intermediate man
ufactures, which had fallen 7.5 percent during 1982. In the
first half, the United States imported $17.3 billion of prod
ucts in this category, compared with $18.8 billion in the
first half of 1982. These products include metals, cork,
C h art 2. U.S. m erch an d ise trade by type of tradin g partner, J a n u a ry -J u n e 1983
Imports
Exports
Nonmarket
economies
(
1 .4 %
)
Nonmarket
economies
(2.5%)
So urce : U.S. Department of Commerce.
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
63
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
November 1983 • Import and Export Price Indexes
wood, textiles, iron and steel, glassware, paperboard, and
other basic inputs to manufacturing processes.
Nonferrous metal prices rose 13.0 percent in the first half
after falling 14.0 percent during all of 1982. Lower interest
rates and increased output in basic industries were key fac
tors boosting consumption of many nonferrous metals. The
increase in the index was led by sharply rising prices for
silver, copper, platinum, and palladium. While demand by
the capital goods sector continued at reduced levels, demand
for nonferrous metals from the automotive, construction,
and consumer appliance sectors was especially robust. How
ever, in the case of some metals, most notably copper, lead,
and nickel, world market prices remained below production
costs for some producers.33
The index for silver and metals of the platinum group,
which accounts for 33.6 percent of the nonferrous index,
rose 17.0 percent in the first half. Silver prices rose rapidly
in the first quarter as interest rates eased, industrial demand
rose, and speculative activity increased, but fell slightly in
the second quarter as interest rates edged upward and spec
ulation waned. Growing demand for platinum fueled higher
prices: early in the first half, gold was selling at a premium
to platinum, a reversal of the historical price relationship
between the two metals. However, demand for platinum
from such industries as electronics and glass quickly pulled
platinum prices back up past gold prices. Palladium prices
also rose as the auto industry purchased greater quantities
of the metal for use in catalytic convertors. Supplies of both
platinum and palladium tightened over the period as the
Soviet Union and South Africa cut shipments of these
metals.
The index for copper rose 16.4 percent in the first half.
Copper prices tend to mirror the general economy, as the
metal is used in virtually every major industry. When in
dustrial production began to improve, copper prices quickly
rose from the record lows posted in 1982, but these increases
were tempered by large stocks on world markets.34 Tin
prices rose 11.0 percent, as the buffer stock manager of the
International Tin Council bought tin to support the metal’s
price, and producer nations continued export controls in an
effort to reduce the world tin surplus.35 Zinc and lead prices
remained depressed in the first half.
Cork and wood prices rose 9.5 percent, paced by in
creased consumption of products related to the construction
industry, such as wood moldings, shingles, shakes, and
carpentry items. Increased demand for hardwood plywood
and veneers from Southeast Asia has been accompanied by
reduced demand for products from the traditional suppliers,
Korea and Taiwan, and increased demand for products from
Indonesia, which previously had supplied only the logs.
Nonconstruction items showed less price change over the
period.
Prices for nonmetallic mineral manufactures rose 5.9 per
cent, largely because of a 10.4-percent increase in the index
lor cut and polished diamonds. The rise in diamond prices
64
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
resulted from greater demand for smaller gems (those of
one carat or less), while production and distribution controls
in South Africa reduced supplies on world markets. (South
Africa is the world’s largest diamond producer.)
The drop in imported steel prices was the result of slug
gish demand and vigorous price competition by foreign pro
ducers in developing nations. For domestic steelmakers,
1983 showed signs of improvement over 1982; in terms of
capacity utilization, last year’s 48.4 percent was the worst
since the Great Depression for U.S. steelmakers, but the
rate rose to 53.6 percent in the first half of 1983.36 The
U.S. economic recovery was uneven in its effect on major
steel consuming sectors. Demand for sheet products for the
auto industry rose, but the lag in capital spending meant
continued depressed demand for plate and structural prod
ucts. Requirements for oil country tubular goods, which are
directly related to levels of exploration and drilling activity,
were reduced. And demand was slack for stainless bars,
plates, and tool steel, as users in most markets operated
with thin inventories.
Import penetration of the U.S. steel market, measured in
net tons, was 18.5 percent in the first half, down from 22.6
percent in the first half of 1982.37 This decline was primarily
the result of agreements reached with the EEC and Japan
late last year which limit those nations’ steel exports to the
United States. However, although first-half shipments from
the EEC and Japan were down substantially from 1982 levels,
steel imports from developing nations such as Brazil, Mex
ico, and Korea made up much of the shortfall. In recent
years, the latter nations have increased capacity in contin
uous casting steel plants, which have low unit labor costs.
Machinery and transport equipment. This index, which ac
counts for 25.4 percent of the weight of the all-import price
index, rose 2.6 percent in the first half. The economic re
covery fueled higher demand for these products; $41.8 bil
lion of merchandise was imported in this category, compared
with $39.1 billion in the first half of 1982. Much of the
dollar value of this index consists of consumer end-use
products such as autos, electric amplifiers, and household
appliances. As consumer spending increased, purchases of
these types of items rose. The index also includes many
important components of manufacturing processes, such as
electric motors, air pumps, compressors, valves, and roller
bearings, for which demand grew with the increase in U.S.
manufacturing output. The continued appreciation of the
dollar placed some downward pressure on prices in this
index.
Prices for imported autos rose 1.9 percent, largely be
cause of the resurgence in domestic auto sales and the vol
untary self-restraint quotas that limit exports of Japanese
cars to the United States to 1.68 million units per year.
Helped by lower interest rates, first-half U.S. auto sales
rebounded from their lowest level since 1961. Retail sales
were 4.55 million units in the first half, compared with 4.04
million in the corresponding 1982 period. Import penetra
tion of the U.S. market was 26.7 percent for the first 6
months of 1983, versus 27.9 percent for all of 1982. (See
chart 3.) Domestic and imported car sales were limited by
the fact that inventories of both types of cars were unusually
low, and dealers regularly sold out of the more popular
models. Domestic auto inventories reflected conservative
production levels, while inventories of Japanese vehicles
were thin as a result of the voluntary quotas. On June 1,
import inventories sank to 33 days of sales (as compared
with a 53-day level a year earlier). Inventories of Japanese
cars were even lower, at a 28-day level, with one major
Japanese carmaker holding a 14-day supply.38
The quotas on exports of Japanese autos were a source
of upward pressure on import prices of these cars. During
the first half, Japanese cars accounted for 21.5 percent of
all new-car sales, compared with 22.6 percent during 1982.
Because of the quotas, Japanese automakers were unable to
maintain or increase their market share by fully exploiting
a cost advantage estimated at $1,500 to $2,000 per car.39
Instead of competing on price, Japan's carmakers concen
trated on selling higher-valued, option-laden cars in the
United States, in effect providing a pricing floor for the
domestic industry.40
In recent years, U.S. consumers have purchased an in
creasing percentage of higher-valued imported cars. This
trend continued in the first half as luxury European models
continued to sell well and Japanese carmakers entered sev
C h art 3. Im port share of the U.S. auto
market, 1970-83
Percent of unit sales,
passenger cars
Note: 1983 data are for the first half of the year.
Source: Motor Vehicle Facts and Figures ’83 (Detroit, Mich.,
Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Association, 1983), p. 18.
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eral new models in the compact market, which had previ
ously been dominated by domestic models.
The index for metalworking machinery rose 3.7 percent,
reflecting a 5.2-percent first-quarter increase and a 1.4-per
cent second-quarter decrease. The bulk of the value in this
index consists of machine tools— power driven devices used
to cut, shape, or form metal in the production of durable
goods. The first-quarter increase was influenced by the dol
lar’s depreciation during that time against the German Deutschemark; Germany is our second largest supplier of machine
tools, after Japan.
Prices were also affected by the decision of the Japanese
Ministry of International Trade and Industry to hike U.S.dollar-based export floor prices of numerically controlled
lathes and machining centers (both major U.S. imports) by
a minimum of 10 percent. This decision applied to orders
placed after January 1, 1983, and shipments made after April
1, but not to machine tools already in U.S. warehouses.41
Conditions in the domestic industry had been depressed
since late 1981, and remained that way in the first half. At
the end of June, the metalworking machinery index was
down 3.3 percent from the June 1982 level, despite the
increase during the first 3 months of 1983. Prices in this
index are heavily influenced by spending on capital goods,
which remained depressed in the first half, as it usually lags
the general economy by 6 to 12 months. In the first half of
1983, the United States posted a $297.7 million trade deficit
in machine tools (on imports of $501.0 million and exports
of $203.3 million), compared with a first-half 1982 deficit
of $358.7 million.42 A large stockpile of Japanese machine
tools in U.S. warehouses also dampened price increases.
As domestic firms attempted to deal with the long-term
recession in their industry, the cost advantage that the strong
U.S. dollar provided to efficient foreign machine tool pro
ducers made recovery doubly difficult. A number of U.S.
firms have responded to foreign competition by entering
into mergers or by filing petitions for import relief with the
Federal Government.
The index for machinery specialized for particular in
dustries rose 4.6 percent in the first half, after declining 0.3
percent in 1982. This broad aggregate index covers agri
cultural equipment, tractors, construction and mining equip
ment, printing machinery, food processing machinery, and
textile and sewing machinery. The index moved up 3.9
percent in the first quarter, reflecting manufacturers’ annual
price increases and the weakening of the dollar vis-à-vis the
yen, Deutschemark, and Swiss franc. The slight increase—
0.7 percent— in the second quarter is a better indicator of
the soft U.S. market for machinery. Construction and min
ing equipment prices were up 1.2 percent as demand con
tinued to lag, while the index for textile and sewing machinery
increased 3.4 percent, with 2.9 percentage points of this
change occurring in the first quarter.
Prices for office machines and automatic data processing
equipment rose 2.4 percent. This group includes mainframe
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MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
November 1983 • Import and Export Price Indexes
computers, terminals, optical scanners, and printers. The
United States has historically posted large trade surpluses
in this category, where our manufacturers have a lead in
technology. In the first half, the United States exported $5.6
billion of these products, and imported only $3.0 billion.
(In 1982, the United States posted a $5.9 billion trade sur
plus for the category.) Pricing of these products is very
competitive, as U .S., Japanese, and European firms vie for
shares in the industrialized nations. Technological advances
that lower production costs have placed downward pressure
on prices in this index; in March they were 4.5 percent
lower than they were 3 years earlier. Parts prices rose faster
than equipment prices in the first half, illustrating the tra
ditionally more inelastic demand for parts than for equip
ment. Finally, prices for cash registers continued to decline
in the first half.
textile agreement.43 The United States also restricted Tai
wanese imports of m en’s wool suit-type slacks and women's
wool suits, slacks, and shorts.44 Additionally, an embargo
was placed on 15 Taiwanese apparel trading firms.
Moderating the decline in miscellaneous manufactures
prices, the index for photographic apparatus, watches, and
clocks rose 1.0 percent, after falling 10.2 percent during all
of 1982. Increased consumer purchases of these products
were the main factor behind the increase in the first half.
In recent years, new technologies and changing consumer
preferences have forced prices steadily downward; since
June 1980, the price level of this index has fallen 8.5 per
cent. Technological advances such as computer chip con
trol, quartz oscillation, and electronic imaging have resulted
in lower unit costs for products in this index.
Export trends
Miscellaneous manufactures. The import index for miscel
laneous manufactures fell 1.0 percent in the first half. The
bulk of the weight in this index is derived from professional,
scientific, and controlling instruments and apparatus, and
products for consumer end use, such as apparel and foot
wear. U.S. consumer demand for such products increased
as the economy rebounded; in the first half, imports were
$15.6 billion compared with $14.0 billion in the same period
last year. Even so, prices fell because there are numerous
foreign suppliers for many of the products in this group,
and because competition for sales in the United States is
intense. In addition, technological improvements have low
ered production costs for many items. As a result of these
factors and the strong dollar, the index rose only 0.4 percent
from March 1980 to June 1983.
Prices of imported footwear fell 1.5 percent in the first
half, continuing the downward price trend in imported foot
wear which began in 1981. First-half prices were nudged
downward by strong worldwide competition among sup
pliers, decreasing costs for petroleum-based raw materials,
and the dollar’s appreciation against the currencies of major
suppliers. Furthermore, supply increased as the counter
vailing duties against Brazilian shoes that had been under
consideration for the last 3 years failed to materialize. De
mand for athletic footwear was strong in the first quarter,
and prices rose, but price cutting by domestic suppliers in
the second quarter forced established exporters to the United
States to lower prices to remain competitive.
The index for apparel fell 1.0 percent, as a pickup in
U.S. consumer demand for clothing was counteracted by
the continued strength of the dollar and competition among
suppliers in the Far East. With consumer confidence grow
ing, promotional efforts by apparel retailers helped to boost
apparel sales significantly over first-half 1982 levels.
Trade differences between the United States and suppliers
in the Far East limited supplies of some items. The U.S.
Government authorized a unilateral freeze on imports of
Chinese textiles while the two nations negotiated a new
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Grain. Grain, which consists mainly of corn, wheat, and
sorghum, is the largest U.S. export in dollar value, ac
counting for sales of $14.2 billion in 1982. Export prices
for grain rose 14.5 percent in the first half of 1983 after
falling 7.3 percent for all of 1982. Prices for corn increased
25.7 percent, and those for sorghum rose 22.3 percent, while
wheat prices fell 0.8 percent. These results were greatly
influenced by the U.S. Payment-In-Kind ( p i k ) program,
which was implemented in January 1983. Under p i k , the
Government provides surplus wheat, corn, rice, cotton, and
sorghum to farmers who reduce their plantings of the same
commodities. The purpose of the program is to draw down
surplus grain stockpiles.
Farmers took advantage of the p ik program to idle 46.6
million acres of cropland, more than twice the number an
ticipated. Together with the Acreage Reduction Program,
p ik brought about the retirement of about 82 million acres
this year, the largest reduction ever.45 Corn export prices
greatly increased because of tight supplies. Farmers planted
58.8 million acres in corn this year, 28 percent below last
year’s plantings and the lowest figure since records were
begun in 1890.46 Export wheat prices were not affected as
heavily as corn prices by the p ik program; first-half wheat
production was estimated at 15 percent below last year's
production, but the huge surplus stored in U.S. silos held
prices down. Sorghum prices rose 22.3 percent, reflecting
the depletion of stockpiles.
U.S. wheat exporters faced slack demand and stiff com
petition from other nations for the business available. The
U.S. share of world trade in grains fell to about 53 percent
this year from a high of 60 percent in 1980. The Soviets
continued to purchase only the minimum amount of grain
required under the Long Term Agreement. Since the 1980
grain embargo, the U.S. share of world grain exports to the
Soviet Union has fallen from- 70 percent to 20 percent.47
China, the largest customer for U.S. wheat last year, did
not buy any wheat after January, because of the improved
outlook for the Chinese grain harvest and a trade dispute
with the U.S. involving textiles. Wheat exporting nations
such as Canada, Argentina, and France used more aggres
sive export marketing to make inroads into major U.S. ex
port markets for grain. And finally, several Third World
nations with international debt problems substantially re
duced 1983 grain imports.
Crude materials. Most major categories of crude materials
showed price increases in the first half. These products are
generally used in the initial stages of manufacturing pro
cesses. Exports in this category totaled $9.3 billion in the
first half, compared with $10.6 billion in the corresponding
period in 1982.
Soybean prices rose 6.7 percent, after falling 10.4 percent
during 1982, largely because of increased demand from the
Soviet Union and Japan. As the size of the hog and cattle
population in the Soviet Union has grown, the need for
soybean meal for livestock feed has also increased. In Japan,
soybeans for crushing are imported from the United States
to produce soy milk, a product for which local demand has
expanded rapidly in recent years. A relatively poor soybean
harvest in Argentina this year also placed some upward
pressure on prices.
Prices for cotton spurted 17.3 percent, recouping some
of the declines recorded over the past 2 years. The p ik
program exceeded expectations in restricting cotton sup
plies, while heavy rains in the South and a prolonged drought
in Texas cut U.S. production further. The Soviet Union, a
major cotton producer, experienced a poor harvest, and
anticipates another one next season. At the same time,
worldwide demand has grown as textile mills react to eco
nomic recovery. The major factor tending to hold prices
down was the increasing domestic cotton output in China,
formerly a major importer of cotton.
Prices for most types of metal scrap soared in the first
half. The increases were led by a 16.0-percent rise in scrap
iron and steel prices and a 76.8-percent increase- in scrap
aluminum prices. Iron and steel scrap are essential inputs
in new steel production. As domestic steel mills purchased
larger amounts of scrap to replenish their depleted inven
tories in anticipation of an upturn in demand, scrap prices
were rapidly bid up in the domestic market. This domestic
price rise was quickly transmitted to the export market.
Demand for aluminum scrap was also robust, as U.S. pri
mary aluminum producers put much idle capacity back into
operation in the first half. In addition, demand from Japan,
the largest customer for U.S. scrap aluminum exports, was
very strong. Japan is not a low cost producer of primary
aluminum, and per-unit energy costs in its secondary alu
minum industry (that segment which produces aluminum
products from aluminum scrap) are much lower than in its
primary industry.
Bituminous coal prices dropped 12.6 percent, as world
demand for U.S. coal continued to fall. The volume of coal
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exports in the first half plummeted 37.7 percent from the
same period in 1982.48 Prices for bituminous coal used in
the production of steel showed the greatest decline. Japan
is the largest market for U.S. exports of this metallurgical
coal; in the spring, Japanese buyers negotiated new contracts
with U.S. firms that lowered existing prices by 12 to 20
percent. Prices for metallurgical coal exported to other na
tions also fell, but by lesser amounts. Steam coal, used for
generating electricity, also declined in price because of re
duced worldwide demand for electricity, sharp competition
from other sources of coal, and higher inventories.
Over the last 2 years, the international coal situation changed
from a sellers’ market to a buyers’ market. Two years ago,
ships were lined up at U.S. ports as coal customers struggled
to build up stockpiles for protection against price increases
and supply interruptions. Subsequently, however, Poland
and Australia reentered world coal markets with aggressive
pricing policies and prices dropped. Projections of world
coal demand also proved to be overly optimistic, and con
tinuous rounds of price cuts forced high-cost suppliers out
of business.
Intermediate manufactured products. Export prices for in
termediate manufactured products rose 2.1 percent in the
first half, following a 1.8-percent decline in 1982. The United
States exported $7.4 billion of products in this category in
the first half, compared with $9.0 billion in the first 6 months
of 1982. Nonferrous metals prices advanced 10.7 percent,
leading the increase in the index for intermediate manufac
tures. Prices for leather and furskins rose 2.8 percent, while
those for iron and steel fell 2.0 percent, moderating the
increase in the index.
The sharp rise in nonferrous metals prices reflected in
creased demand by basic industries and lower interest rates.
These prices are directly related to the level of world eco
nomic activity; last year, as world economies slumped, prices
for many of these metals posted record lows in real terms,
and many U.S. producers had to price output below pro
duction costs. The 1983 first-half rise in prices was accom
panied by leaner inventories for many metals than existed
during the previous year.
The increase in the nonferrous metals index was led by
increases in silver, copper, and aluminum prices. Silver
prices posted a 28.7-percent gain, virtually all of which
occurred in the first quarter, in response to increased U.S.
economic activity, lower interest rates, and speculative ex
pectations. Copper export prices were up 3.9 percent, as
domestic de.mand rose in response to production increases
in basic industries such as autos, housing, and appliances.
Although a strike began at one major U.S. copper producer
as the first half ended, most producers achieved early wage
agreements with their unions, which helped to cool spec
ulative activity in copper. Aluminum prices rose 7.4 per
cent, reflecting producers’ increases for several product lines.49
U.S. output of primary aluminum rose from 8,875 short
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MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
November 1983 • Import and Export Price Indexes
tons per day in December 1982 to 9,607 short tons in June
1983 as firms geared up to meet the increased demand for
their products.50 Most U.S. aluminum makers posted losses
during 1982, but several posted profits in first-half 1983.
For molybdenum and lead, prices and output remained de
pressed.
Prices for leather and furskins went up 2.8 percent, largely
because of a substantial second-quarter increase for wet
blues (the product between the raw hide and finished leather
stage). Tanners in apparel manufacturing nations (Hong Kong,
Taiwan, South Korea, and China) purchased large amounts
of raw hides as well as wet blues from the United States
during the second quarter in anticipation of increased orders
from shoe and clothing manufacturers.
Most finished leather prices were stable during the first
half, although there were some slight price increases for
high-quality bovine leathers used in shoe manufacture. Do
mestic demand for finished leathers has declined sharply in
recent years as production of leather goods shifted abroad.
For example, import penetration of the U.S. footwear mar
ket, as measured in numbers of pairs, was 59 percent in
1982, compared with 41 percent in 1975.51 Conversely,
export expansion by U.S. tanners has proved especially
difficult because of trade barriers in foreign markets.
Export steel prices fell 2.0 percent, as demand continued
at drastically reduced levels. In 1980, U.S. firms exported
4.1 million tons of steel, but by 1982, this had fallen to 1.8
million tons.52 And in the first half of 1983, U.S. firms
exported only 583 thousand tons. U.S. steel products are
essentially fungible with low-cost steel products from de
veloping nations such as Brazil, Mexico, and Korea. This,
combined with an excess of worldwide steelmaking capac
ity, has made it difficult for U.S. steelmakers, which gen
erally have higher production costs, to compete in foreign
markets.
Machinery and transport equipment. Machinery and trans
port equipment accounts for 35.3 percent of the value of
all U.S. exports. Prices for such products advanced 1.0
percent in the first half, after rising 3.9 percent for all of
1982. Most major aggregate indexes in the category showed
marginal first-half price increases. The strengthening of the
dollar and continued slack demand abroad were major fac
tors moderating price rises and sales volumes. Exports of
machinery and transport equipment were $42.1 billion,
compared with $46.0 billion in the first half of 1982. Many
of the products in this group, such as computers, electronic
components, and telecommunications equipment, require a
high degree of technical sophistication, and U.S. firms have
a comparative advantage in their manufacture.
The index for general industrial machinery and parts rose
1.0 percent, compared with a 1982 first-half increase of 3.2
percent. This subgroup includes heating and cooling equip
ment, air pumps and compressors, and pumps and valves
for liquids. In the first half, heating equipment prices rose
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1.2 percent and machine parts prices advanced 2.9 percent,
while prices for pumps for liquids fell 0.8 percent. Although
higher prices for aluminum and steel alloys put upward
pressure on the costs of many industrial machines, slack
demand in overseas markets moderated price increases as
U.S. producers kept their export prices relatively stable in
dollars to retain market share.
The index for general aviation aircraft and helicopters
rose 2.7 percent in the first half, sharply below the average
rate of increase over the last 6 years. Demand for aviation
products, both at home and abroad, was at reduced levels
in the first half. Export sales for the first half were down
56.7 percent (in units) from sluggish 1982 levels, which,
in turn, were 49.0 percent below 1981 levels.53 As a result,
some U.S. firms furloughed workers and halted production
of certain single-engine models to bring production in line
with demand. A large supply of relatively new used aircraft
offered at low prices also helped to hold down prices.
The index for telecommunications equipment rose 1.2
percent in the first half, after increasing 3.3 percent during
all of 1982. Prices rose 3.4 percent in the miscellaneous
telecommunications equipment subgroup, which accounts
for 77 percent of the weight of the telecommunications
equipment index. The subgroup includes such items as office
communications devices, large radio transmitters and re
ceivers, and navigational devices and parts. Demand was
strong for these highly sophisticated products in the first
half. Prices for television sets declined 4.1 percent, and
prices for video and sound reproducers and recorders fell
3.4 percent during the first half, placing downward price
pressure on the telecommunications equipment index. Ex
porters of these products, which include tape recorders and
radios, faced stiff competition from Japanese producers.
Finally, prices for individual telephones declined in direct
response to the impending deregulation of the U.S. tele
phone industry.
Moderating the rise in the machinery and transport equip
ment index were prices for electrical machinery and equip
ment, which fell 0.1 percent after rising 2.2 percent in 1982.
During last year and the first half of this year, the United
States recorded a slight trade surplus for products in this
category. In the first 6 months of 1983, the United States
exported $5.72 billion of such merchandise, and imported
$5.67 billion.54
Lower prices for semiconducting materials and devices
such as silicon wafers and chips led the price decline in the
electrical machinery and equipment index. Wafer prices fell
as competition among American, Japanese, and European
producers intensified, and technological advances and econ
omies of scale lowered production costs in many cases as
firms moved further up the learning curve. Upward pressure
was placed on the index by continuing strong demand for
computers, defense equipment, and other types of electronic
apparatus; by increased demand for new home electrical
appliances as homebuilding activity picked up; and by price
hikes for inputs such as aluminum, copper, and precious
metals.
The indexes in the miscellaneous manufactures category
showed mixed changes. Miscellaneous manufactures ac
count for 7.4 percent of the value of all U.S. exports, and
include such products as measuring and controlling instru
ments and apparatus, watches and clocks, toys, games, and
musical instruments. During the first half of 1983, exports
of such merchandise were $7.6 billion, compared with $8.2
billion for the same period last year. The index for photo
graphic apparatus and supplies, optical goods, and watches
and clocks fell 2.3 percent in the first half, while that for
professional, scientific, and controlling instruments and ap
paratus rose 4.2 percent.
The increase in the latter index reflected the industry
practice of making major price changes early in the year.
(For the first half of last year, for example, this index rose
7.0 percent.) Overseas demand was high for these products,
which are used to monitor and control industrial processes
and improve production efficiency. Foreign demand for U.S.
products in this group has traditionally been robust, and in
recent years large trade surpluses have been recorded. Be
cause U.S. exporters are generally able to pass through
increases in their production costs, this index increased 69.8
percent from June 1977 to June 1983.
Film, cameras, and related photographic equipment ac
count for the bulk of the weight in the index for photographic
apparatus and supplies, optical goods, and watches and clocks.
Most producers of photographic supplies adjust their prices
at the beginning of the year. Prices fell 3.4 percent in the
first quarter, reflecting efforts by exporters to counteract the
effects of the strong dollar on sales abroad.
FOOTNOTES
Acknowledgment: The following economists in the Bureau's Division of
International Prices assisted in analyzing the various indexes discussed in
this article: Brian Costello, Todd Darr, Mohamed Elitreby. David Fried
man, Hans Jorgensen, Mike Moore, Lynn Norman, Nicholas Peters, Va
nessa Richardson, Patricia Szarek, Mildred Tweedy, Paul Washburn. Loren
Yager, and Peter Zaleski. Jose Alonso, Todd Darr, and Peter Zaleski of
the Division assisted in the preparation of the graphics.
1In this article, the “ all-import-price index” refers to the all-commodities-import-price index, excluding chemicals. This measure accounts for
96.5 percent of the value of all imports. A new all-import index which
includes chemicals and covers 100 percent of the value of all imports is
now available, starting with fourth-quarter 1982 data.
2 For a detailed look at import-export price movements in 1982, see
Mark J. Johnson, “ U.S. import-export prices in 1982,” Monthly Labor
Review , May 1983, pp. 2 0-29.
3 Import price indexes are weighted by 1980 import values and are
published on an f.o.b. (free-on-board) foreign port or c.i.f. (cost, insur
ance, and freight) U.S. port basis. Export price indexes are weighted by
1980 U.S. merchandise export trade values and are published on an f.o.b.
factory or f.a.s. (free-alongside-ship) U.S. port basis. See “ International
Price Program” (Washington, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics).
4 For details on the value of the U.S. dollar against currencies of other
nations, see Federal Reserve Bulletin, July 1983, p. A68.
5 (AS. Department of Commerce News, bea 8 3 -3 8 (U.S. Department
of Commerce. Bureau of Economic Analysis), July 20, 1983, table 4,
p. 8.
bP-l Report (Detroit, Mich., Motor Vehicle Manufacturers' Associa
tion), July 6, 1983, p. 1.
7U.S. Department of Commerce News, CB 83-108 (Bureau of the Census)
July 19, 1983, p. 1.
* Information on U.S. merchandise trade exports, imports, and trade
deficits is from Survey of Current Business, September 1983.
9 Ibid.
10Highlights of U.S. Export and Import Trade—FT-990 (U.S. Depart
ment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census), June 1983, table E-3.
11 Ibid, table 8.
12 U.S. Department of Commerce News,
bea 8 3 -4 0 (Bureau of Economic
Analysis), Sept. 15, 1983.
Merchandise imports + Merchandise exports
----------------------------------------------------- x
Final goods + Merchandise imports
100
It is computed using data from Survey of Current Business, various issues.
15 Robert J. Beck, “ U.S. Demand. Imports to Edge Down: Production
Rising,” Oil and Gas Journal, July 25, 1983. p. 114.
16 Ibid., p. 114.
17Petroleum Supply Monthly (U .S. Department of Energy. Energy In
formation Administration). August 1983.
iXMonthly Energy Review (U.S. Department of Energy. Energy Infor
mation Administration), September 1983, p. 6. This figure is derived by
using the information given in the Executive Summary and dividing total
energy imports by total domestic energy consumption.
l9Beck, “ U.S. Demand,” p. 127.
20 Ibid.
21 See “ Consumer Price Index (cpi-u ). All Urban Consumers,"
8 3 -3 6 6 (Bureau of Labor Statistics), July 1983.
usdl
22Beck, “ U.S. Demand," p. 127.
23 Ibid.
24“ Now
p. 52.
O PEC
Feels an Oil Shock,” Business Week. July 18, 1983
25 Ibid.
26Petroleum Supply Monthly, doe/ eia— 0109(83/07) (U.S. Department
of Energy, Energy Information Administration). June 1983, pp. 17-18.
-7 Neil Behrmann, “ World Coffee Accord Faces Tough Session as Pro
ducers Seek Bigger Share of Market,” The Wall Street Journal. Sept. 3,
1982, p. 24.
2KForeign Agriculture Circular (USDA. Foreign Agricultural Service),
July, 1983, p. 6.
29 Sugar and Sugar Sweetener Outlook and Situation (U.S. Department
of Agriculture, Economic Research Service), June 1983, p. 8.
30 Presidential Proclamation Number 5071; the proclamation was issued
on June 28, 1983, and took effect on June 29, 1983.
31 Sugar and Sweetener Outlook and Situation p. 11.
3;' Summary of U.S. Export and Import Merchandise Trade—FT900-H306 (Bureau of the Census), June 1983, p. 10.
33 “ Quarterly Forecast— Nonferrous.” Iron Age. July 4. 1983. p. 28.
34 Ibid.
13Summary of U.S. International Transactions (U.S. Department of
Commerce, Bureau o f Economic Analysis), Sept. 15, 1983.
35For information on tin pricing, see “ Tin Prices In General Improved
in April,” Tin News (Washington. The Malaysian Tin Bureau), May 15,
14
The share of final goods production that is accounted for by gross 1983, p. 1; and "May and June Tin Prices.” Tin News. July 15, 1983
trade (merchandise imports plus merchandise exports) is calculated as:
p. 1.
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MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
36Pig Iron and Steel Report,
November 1983 • Import and Export Price Indexes
ais-7 (Washington, American Iron and
Steel Institute), July, 1983.
37Monthly Apparent Supply (Washington, American Iron and Steel In
stitute), August 1982 and August 1983.
38The Automotive News, June 20, 1983, pp. 1—61.
39 Amal Nag, “ High New Car Prices Keep Many Lookers Looking, Not
Buying,” The Wall Street Journal, Aug. 3, 1983, p. 8.
4(1 Ibid.
4i “ miti Boosts Prices of Japanese Machines,” American Machinist,
Major Miscalculation,” The Wall Street Journal, July 19, 1983, p. 1.
46Feed Outlook and Situation Report (U.S. Dept, of Agriculture, Eco
nomic Research Service), May 1983, p. 2.
47Jeffrey H. Bimbaum, “ U.S. Will Negotiate with Soviets, Chinese
this Week to Boost Lagging Farm Exports,” The Wall Street Journal, July
25, 1983, p. 4.
48International Coal Review (Washington, National Coal Association
and Coal Exporters’ Association of U .S .), Aug. 3, 1983, p. 8.
49 “ Alcoa Buys Metal to Meet Certain Orders as Aluminum Prices and
Demand Surge,” The Wall Street Journal, July 27, ¡983, p. 48.
February 1983, p. 27.
50Primary Aluminum Production Monthly Report (Washington, The
42“ U.S. Foreign Trade in Machine Tools, First Quarter. 1983 (McLean,
Va., National Machine Tool Builders’ Association), Sept. 29, 1983.
Aluminum Association), July 1983.
43 For information regarding this unilateral curb, see Richard Wightman,
“ U.S. and China Quota Talks Collapse,” Women's Wear Dailv, Jan 14,
1983; and Amanda Berrett, “ U.S.-China Textile Trade Talks Ended on
Calm Note, but Sides Remain Far Apart.” The Wall Street Journal. Mar.
21, 1983. p. 25.
Council of America, 1983), pp. 20, 28.
44“ U .S. Lowers Boom on Some Taiwan Imports,” Women’s Wear
Daily, Apr. 27, 1983, p. 17.
45Jeffrey H. Bimbaum, “ Some Farmers Like it. But Critics Call pik a
70
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51V S .
Leather Industry Statistics, I9S3 Edition (Washington, Tanners’
52Exports
of Steel Products (Washington, American Iron and Steel In
stitute), June 1983.
53News (Washington, General Aviation Manufacturers Association), July
11, 1983.
^ ET-990, Highlights of U.S. Export and Import Trade (U.S. Depart
ment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census), June 1983, tables E-2 and I2.
M ajor Agreements
Expiring Next M onth
This list of selected collective bargaining agreements expiring in December is based on contracts on
hie in the Bureau’s Office of Wages and Industrial Relations. The list includes agreements covering
1,000 workers or more.
Number of
workers
Employer and location
Industry
Labor organization1
American National Insurance Co. (Interstate) ...............................................
Atlantic City Electric Co. (New Jersey) ........................................................
Building Service League, Commercial Agreement (New York, N .Y .) .........
Blue Cross of Northern California (California) .............................................
Insurance ....................................
Utilities......................................
Services ....................................
Insurance ....................................
Insurance Workers ....................................
Electrical Workers (ibew) .........................
Service Employees ....................................
3,000
1,000
10,000
1,300
Campbell Soup, Inc. (Paris, Tex.) .................................................................
Constructors Association of Western Pennsylvania (Pennsylvania)................
Constructors Association of Western Pennsylvania (Pennsylvania)................
Florida Power Corp. (Florida) ........................................................................
Food products ...........................
Construction .............................
Construction .............................
Utilities......................................
Food and Commercial Workers ................
Operating Engineers ..................................
Teamsters (Ind.) .........................................
Electrical Workers ( ibew) .........................
1,650
8,000
6,000
2,050
Heavy engineering, railroad contracting, highway and utilities construction
agreement (Pennsylvania)2
Huntington Alloys, Inc. (Huntington. W. Va.) .............................................
Illinois Association of Health Care Facilities (Illinois) ..................................
Lockheed Aircraft Corp., Lockheed California Co. Division (California) . . .
Construction .............................
Primary m etals...........................
Hospitals....................................
Transportation equipment .........
Marriott Corp., Bob’s Big Boy Restaurants (California)...............................
McDonnell Douglas Corp. (Interstate).............................................................
Restaurants ................................
Transportation equipment .........
Metropolitan Marine Maintenance Contractors’ Association, Inc., 2 agreements (New York)
Services ....................................
Bob's Employees' Association (Ind.) . . . .
Southern California Professional
Engineering Association (Ind.)
Longshoremen’s Association ....................
Electrical products ....................
5,000
Service Employees ....................................
Engineers and Scientists Guild, Lockheed
Section (Ind.)
1,300
3,200
2,750
5,700
2.500
3.500
Neenah Foundry Co. (Neenah, Wis.) .............................................................
New York Lamp and Shade Manufacturers Association, Inc. (New York,
N .Y .) ............................................................................................
Northwest Airlines, flight attendants (Interstate)3 ...........................................
Ozark Airlines, clerical/office employees (Interstate)3 ....................................
Plastic Soft Materials Manufacturers Association, Inc. (New York, N.Y.)
Realty Advisory Board on Labor Relations, Inc. (New York, N .Y .) ...........
Realty Advisory Board on Labor Relations, Inc. (New York, N .Y .) ...........
Electrical Workers (ibew) .........................
1.100
1,500
Air transportation...................... Teamsters (Ind.) .........................................
Air transportation...................... Machinists .......................................
Apparel...................................... Ladies Garment W orkers...........................
Real Estate ............................... Service Employees ....................................
Real Estate ................................ Operating Engineers ..................................
2,600
1,750
5,000
20.000
1.700
San Mateo County Restaurant-Hotel Owners Association (California) .........
Restaurants ................................
Southern California Edison Co. (Interstate)........................................
Southern California Edison Co. (California) .............................................
Standard Brands, Inc., Curtiss Division (Franklin Park, 111.).........................
Utilities......................................
Utilities......................................
Food products ...........................
Stewart-Warner Corp. (Chicago, 111.) ............................................................
Timex Corp. (Little Rock, Ark.) ........................................
Trans World Airlines, Inc., pilots (Interstate)3 .........................
West Bend Co., West Bend Division (Wisconsin) ......................................
4,600
1,500
1.000
Transportation equipment .........
Hotel Employees and Restaurant
Employees
Electrical Workers ( ibew) .........................
Utility W orkers.........................................
Bakery, Confectionery and Tobacco
Workers
Electrical Workers (UE-Ind.) ..................
Instruments.................................
Air transportation......................
Fabricated metal products.........
Machinists ................................
Air Line Pilots Association ..................
Allied Industrial W orkers..................
1,200
3,100
1,200
State, County and Municipal Employees . .
State, County and Municipal Employees . .
State, County and Municipal Employees . .
2,000
1.200
2,200
4.500
2.500
5,200
2,300
Government activity
Maryland: Baltimore Mass Transit Administration....................................
New York: Chautauqua County employees.................................................
Erie County blue collar employees...........................................
Erie County white collar employees......................................
Ohio: Toledo Board of Education, teachers..................................
Transportation.............................
Multidepartments.......................
Multidepartments.......................
Multidepartments.......................
Education....................................
'Affiliated with afl-cio except where noted as independent (Ind.).
industry area (group of companies signing same contract),
information is from newspaper reports.
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71
Developments in
Industrial Relations
Airline industry update
The airlines transportation industry continues to be buf
feted by adverse developments, as a number of carriers
report operating losses, pay cuts, and strikes. The difficulties
are generally attributed to one or more of a number of
factors, such as the drop in travel resulting from the state
of the economy; deregulation of the industry and the re
sulting influx of carriers, leading to fare cuts; high fuel costs;
and the high cost of replacing aging air fleets.
Trans World Airlines, which lost $109 million during the
first half of 1983, reduced the pay of 5,100 nonunion sa
laried employees by 10 percent. In addition, their scheduled
September general salary increase was indefinitely post
poned, as were all individual merit and longevity salary
increases, an increase in shift premiums scheduled for Oc
tober, and improvements in medical and life insurance
scheduled for November.
Company President C. E. Meyer attributed the airlines’
problems to “ higher costs, especially employment costs.’’
t w a ’ s labor costs amounted to 38.4 percent of revenue,
compared with 29.8 percent at Pan American World Air
ways, which had won wage-and-benefit concessions from
its employees starting in late 1981. According to the Civil
Aeronautics Board, in 1982, wage-and-benefit costs for all
U.S. carriers averaged 38 percent of revenue; fuel costs
averaged 29 percent of revenue, down from 32 percent in
m id-1981.
In another move to improve its condition, t w a began
negotiations with three unions on possible wage-and-benefit
concessions. The three unions, representing a total of 19,000
workers, are the International Association of Machinists,
the Air Line Pilots Association, and the Independent f e d
eration of Flight Attendants.
t w a announced plans to reduce its 29,500 work force to
26,000 by the end of the year. The cut will include 1,250
flight attendants and 750 workers represented by the Ma
chinists.
At Delta Air Lines, 48 senior executives agreed to un
specified cuts in compensation after the carrier announced
an $86.7 million loss for the year ended June 30, 1983.
“ Developments in Industrial Relations” is prepared by George Ruben of
the Division o f Developments in Labor-Management Relations, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and is largely based on information from secondary sources.
72
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The loss, the first in 36 years, also induced the airline’s
pilots to increase their monthly work schedule without an
increase in pay and to extend their contract by 1 year, to
March 1985. The pilots are represented by the Air Line
Pilots Association. In 1982, as appreciation for a pay in
crease, Delta’s 36,000 employees contributed $30 million
to buy the company an airplane.
Republic Airlines and six unions representing 10,000 em
ployees agreed on a temporary 15-percent pay cut after the
company announced a $102.9 million loss during the first
half of 1983. The first of the concession agreements, with
the Machinists, occurred just 2 months after the union had
won a 3-year contract which provided for wage increases.
From September 1, 1983, to May 30, 1984, pay of unionrepresented mechanics will be lowered to $13.50 an hour
(formerly $15.91). The other large unions involved were
the Air Line Employees Association (representing 6,700
workers), the Association of Flight Attendants (2,200), and
the Air Line Pilots Association (1,800).
Republic Airlines began compensating 7,100 employees
who had aggregated $22 million by deferring a month’s pay
in February 1982. The individual employees, who were
given several options, took $13.5 million in cash, $3.7
million in company stock, and credited $900,000 to an
investment plan. In addition, the employees agreed to defer
$3.8 million for another year, and some employees elected
to permit Republic to retain $82,000.
Several months before termination of their existing con
tract, Northwest Orient Airlines and the Air Line Pilots
Association negotiated a 3-year contract which froze wages
until January 1, 1984, increased the number of flying hours
to 83 a month (formerly 75), and called for “ productivity
concessions” by the 1,600 employees. The cockpit crew
members will receive pay increases of 7.5 percent at the
end of the freeze, 6.5 percent in 1985, and 3 percent in
1986. The contract also provided for improvements in pen
sion and insurance benefits.
Western Airlines, which has been operating at a loss since
1979, proposed a “ partnership plan” under which it would
give its 10,000 employees at least 25 percent of shares in
exchange “ for past and future (wage) concessions.” (Bas
ically, a 10-percent pay cut extending for 12 months was
being sought from all employees.) Members of the Air Line
Pilots Association were asked to extend their 10-percent pay
cut until September 1, 1984, instead of the current expiration
date of January 1, 1984. This means they would not receive
an 8-percent pay increase scheduled for January 1, 1984.
Also, nonunion employees would extend to September 30,
1984, a 12.5-percent pay cut instituted in December 1981
and scheduled to expire January 1, 1984. Western also pro
posed a profit-sharing plan calling for distributions to all
employees equal to 15 percent of pre-tax earnings up to $25
million a year, and 20 percent of earnings over $25 million.
Braniff International Corp. proceeded with a plan to re
organize its operations under protection of Chapter 11 of
the Federal Bankruptcy Code. Under the plan, the Hyatt
Corp. will purchase 80 percent of the carrier, which would
then resume operation at about 50 percent of the level in
May 1982, when Braniff shut down and sought protection
from its creditors. The 2,000 former Braniff employees who
will operate the airline had agreed to a number of wageand-benefit concessions.
Continental Airlines files for bankruptcy
Continental Airlines, the Nation’s eighth largest air pas
senger carrier, filed for protection under Chapter 11 of the
Bankruptcy Code. According to Continental, the bankruptcy
move was triggered by the Air Line Pilots and Flight At
tendants unions’ rejection of an offer of company stock in
exchange for wage, benefit, and work-rule concessions.
Three days after the filing, Continental resumed opera
tions on about 30 percent of its former system, using those
flight crew members willing to cross picket lines set up by
the two unions to protest the bankruptcy move and pay cuts
imposed by Continental. The new pay scales were a flat
$43,000 a year for pilots and $14,000 for flight attendants,
compared with the previous averages of $77,000 and $29,000.
Continental, which lost $84 million in the first half of the
year, also instituted changes in work rules to reduce labor
costs.
Actually, the carrier was being struck by three unions,
as 2,000 members of the Machinists union had walked out
before the bankruptcy move. The major issues were union
demands for a $17.70-an-hour pay rate for mechanics by
the end of 1984 (Continental had offered a $2.55 increase
in the existing $13.45 rate), and company demands for
changes in rules that the union contended would cost more
than 500 jobs.
Trucking agreement rejected
The organized trucking industry suffered a serious blow
when Teamsters members overwhelmingly rejected a pack
age of wage-and-benefit concessions intended to aid the
stricken industry in reopening and expanding operations.
The vote was 94,086 to 13,082 against the “ Voluntary Laid
Off Employee Relief Plan.”
The rejection also was a blow to the prestige of Teamsters
President Jackie Presser, who had entered office in April.
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Presser had urged the members to approve the proposed
“ rider” to the 1982 accord with Trucking Management In c.,
the industry’s bargaining leader, to “ restore union jobs in
the face of nonunion competition.” He was referring to the
influx of nonunion carriers since 1980, when the Motor
Carrier Act eliminated many of the regulations governing
entry into and functioning of the trucking industry.
Trucking Management and the Teamsters had hoped that
their 1982 concessionary agreement would end the financial
problems of the organized companies, but apparently it did
not. As a result, some individual carriers won additional
wage, benefit, and work rule changes from Teamsters’ lo
cals. This continuing “ erosion” of the standards of the
National Master Freight Agreement led to the proposed
“ rider” which was rejected by union members despite unan
imous approval by the union’s 21-member executive board.
(See Monthly Labor Review, April 1982, p. 64, for terms
of the 1982 master agreement, and April 1983, p. 42, for
details of the union leadership’s rejection of Trucking Man
agement’s early 1983 request for concession talks.)
The “ Voluntary Laid Off Employee Relief Plan” would
have applied only to workers who were on layoff on April
1, 1983, and were later recalled to work. Covered employees
would have been permitted to refuse to participate without
losing their seniority, but they would have lost their eligi
bility for casual daily work. Other provisions of the rejected
agreement included:
• a 22-cent-a-mile pay rate for recalled over-the-road driv
ers, compared with a 32-cent rate for other over-the-road
drivers;
• an $ 11 -an-hour pay rate for recalled local drivers and
terminal workers, compared with a $13.41 rate for other
local drivers;
• a $5.50 pay rate for recalled drivers while their vehicles
are being repaired, loaded, or unloaded, and a $13.30
rate while driving;
• a reduction in paid sick leave;
• elimination of automatic cost-of-living pay adjustments;
and
• inducements for employers to establish new divisions to
handle only “ full truckload” lots of cargo and thus en
hance their ability to compete with nonunion carriers.
There was no immediate indication of whether the union
would renew national concession talks, “ live with” the
terms of the 1982 contract, or enter into local talks with
individual carriers beset by financial difficulties.
GM-Auto Workers announce retraining program
In a move that could alleviate the continuing high rate of
unemployment in the automobile industry, General Motors
Corp. and the Auto Workers announced a plan to retrain
up to 9,300 laid-off gm employees in the Flint, M ich., area.
A new regional skills development and training center will
assess job availability, train workers, and help them find
73
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • Developments in Industrial Relations
jobs within the gm system or in other industries. The training
will be in such fields as computer systems operation, com
puter program m ing, electronics, building m aintenance,
medical technology, and machine operation.
More than $7 million has been allocated to the first year
of the program. The money will come from a fund into
which gm is paying 5 cents per employee for each hour
worked, as specified in the parties’ 1982 labor contract.
The accord provided for two $1.10 an hour pay increases,
one effective immediately and the other on August 2, 1984,
which will bring the standard pay rate to $15.17. In the
third year, the employees will receive a pay increase equal
to “ the national brewing industry level general wage in
crease.”
Benefit changes included improvements in health and life
insurance and regular pension benefits and an additional paid
holiday.
National work standards for bricklayers
The Bricklayers union and the National Refractory Con
tractors’ Association concluded 3 years of discussions by
signing an accord that sets national standards for working
conditions, hours, and wages. Union Vice President L. Ger
ald Carlisle said the national approach was necessary be
cause the past practice of negotiating locally “ often didn’t
address the specific jobsite conditions which are unique to
fire bricklayers and refractory contractors.”
The 2-year National Refractory Agreement will be ad
ministered by a joint committee that will meet every 6 months
to review the negotiated gross wage rates. The settlement
established 71 such rates with an index to determine which
rate will apply in each local union’s jurisdiction. Contractors
will deduct from the local gross wage rate the locally ne
gotiated amount to be paid into benefit funds.
According to the union, the contract will cover 3 million
hours of work per year performed by its members. The union
already has national contracts covering work on smoke stacks;
acid tile and tanks, and cooling towers.
Brewery cuts jobs, offers early retirement
A 2-month strike against the Miller Brewing Co. of Mil
waukee ended when members of Local 9 of the Brewery
Workers accepted a contract calling for the elimination of
297 jobs. Alan Easton, a Miller vice president, said the jobs
were “ in excess of the manning required to produce the
volume of beer that comes out of the brew ery.” He denied
that Miller had threatened to move its operations to a new
brewery in Trenton, Ohio, but admitted that “ the longer
the strike went, it was clear it was an option.”
George Hibert, president of Local 9, said that layoffs
could be averted if enough of the 340 eligible employees
accepted a new early retirement option. Under the new
incentive, a 55-year-old worker retiring after 30 years of
service would receive 24 monthly payments of $2,250, after
which a regular pension would begin. Older employees would
receive fewer special payments: a retiring employee age 65
with 30 years of service would only receive six of the $2,250
payments.
Worker job security was improved by a new provision
prohibiting M iller from subcontracting work involving
brewing, packaging, and preparing beer for shipment. Miller
also agreed to a 3-year contract, instead of the 28-month
contract it had first offered.
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Equipment workers accept group pay plan
In the farm and construction equipment industry, workers
at International Harvester C o .’s Melrose Park (111.) plant
agreed to change to a group incentive pay plan from indi
vidual incentive pay. The company had indicated that it
would probably close the engine plant if the employees
rejected the 4-year accord, but would move $40 million of
production equipment destined for Spain into the half-empty
plant if the workers accepted. Similar plans aimed at in
creasing productivity have kept two International Harvester
foundries open.
The plant has about 700 production workers, represented
by the Auto Workers, and 230 salaried workers, compared
with a total employment of 4,250 in 1974. Harvester lost
$1.64 billion in 1982.
ILA convention
Delegates to the International Longshoremen’s Associa
tion’s quadrennial convention elected Thomas W. Gleason
to a sixth 4-year term as head of the union. Walter L.
Sullivan, who had been appointed secretary-treasurer in
February, also was elected to a 4-year term.
The 600 delegates approved resolutions calling for
strengthening the U.S. merchant marine to compete with
foreign-flag fleets and to strengthen the national defense,
strong support of the union’s political action committee, and
abolition of the waterfront commission of the port of New
York City and New Jersey, which the union contends in
terferes with collective bargaining and other union affairs.
Lone Star steel workers accept deeper pay cuts
In a major deviation from the pattern of settlements in
the steel industry, the United Steelworkers union negotiated
a 37-month contract with Lone Star Steel Co. that called
for a $2.80-an-hour cut in the $13 hourly average pay. The
union’s earlier settlement with the seven Coordinating Com
mittee Steel Companies had provided for a $1.31 pay cut,
of which $1.25 was to be restored over the contract term.
(See Monthly Labor Review, May 1983, pp. 47-48) Fol
lowing that settlement, the union negotiated similar wageand-benefit terms at most of the 200 other steel companies
with which it bargains. In a fe w cases, pay cuts ranged up
to $3.25 an hour. The Lone Star accord covers 1,600 active
employees and 2,200 on layoff. It provides for 20 cents of
the pay cut to be restored in April 1985, 24 cents in October
1985, and 24 cents in April 1986. Other terms included a
10-cent-an-hour reduction (to 20 cents) in the premium for
the afternoon shift, and a 15-cent reduction (to 30 cents) in
the premium for the night shift; elimination of two of 11
paid holidays; revision of the supplemental unemployment
benefits plan to provide for a flat benefit of $100 a week,
rather than a percentage of pay, and a 19-cent-an-hour in
crease (to 35 cents) in the company’s financing of the plan. A
company official maintained that Lone Star’s settlements
often differ from the industry pattern, and that the $13 an
hour average pay was higher than at other producers. The
plant is located in Lone Star, Tex.
New plan to control plant closures, cutbacks
In possibly the first action of its kind, a coalition of union,
community, and religious groups negotiated an agreement
with the City of Vacaville, Calif., requiring certain em
ployers to give a year’s notice of plant closings or major
cuts in operations. The agreement is limited to companies
that move to the city and take advantage of tax-supported
financial aid. It requires the companies to file an equal
employment opportunity plan with the city and also requires
unionized companies moving into the city to continue to
either recognize the union or negotiate with the union an
agreement regarding relocation and transfer arrangements.
The accord ended a dispute that arose when the coalition,
the Plant Closures Project, and Local 1412 of the United
Electrical Workers sued Simpson Dura-Vent C o ., a chimney
pipe manufacturer, of Redwood City, Calif., charging that
the company’s plan to relocate to Vacaville violated a Cal
ifornia law prohibiting tax funds from being used to induce
companies to move from one community within the State
to another. Vacaville, which had negotiated a $2.5 million
low-interest financing plan with Simpson, claimed the suit
threatened its $38 million industrial development program.
The agreement provided for withdrawal of the suit.
California wineries settle
More than 3,500 employees were covered by a settlement
between 16 California wineries and two locals of the Dis
tillery, Wine and Allied Workers union. The 3-year contract
did not provide for an immediate pay increase but the work
ers will receive 4 percent increases at the beginning of the
second and third years. A winery official said the increases
were low because of lagging sales resulting from the state
of the economy and increasing competition from foreign
wineries.
The agreement covered wineries throughout California.
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Other terms included termination of the automatic cost-ofliving wage adjustment clause, which had resulted in a 30cent-an-hour pay increase during the previous contract. There
were no changes in benefits.
Women win sex bias award
In a decision which could have national repercussions, a
Federal judge has held that the State of Washington dis
criminated against female employees by paying them less
than male employees performing comparable work. The
case was based on a perceived pay disparity between work
ers in jobs that are “ traditionally” held by women and jobs
that are “ traditionally” held by men. Past decisions and
existing laws specifically bar unequal pay for performing
the same job, but the current decision supports recent efforts
to validate the principle of “ comparable w orth.” According
to this principle, workers in different classes or types of
work should be paid the same if their performance requires
degrees of aptitude, training, and diligence of comparable
worth to society.
The case began in 1974, when the State, acting in re
sponse to a complaint of pay disparities by the State, County
and Municipal Employees, commissioned a study which
showed that women were paid about 20 percent less than
men in comparable jobs. The union, which represents 20,000
of the State’s 50,000 employees, cited as one example the
$1,114 monthly pay rate for laundry workers (who are pre
dominantly women), and the $1,574 monthly rate for truckd riv ers (w ho are p red o m in an tly m en) although both
occupations had the same 97-point job evaluation rate based
on the requirements of the job.
This and subsequent studies led the State in early 1983
to agree to institute a plan to eliminate the disparities over
a 10-year period. However, the State budgeted only $1.5
million to start the program, leading the union to charge
that correction of the problem would require about 85 years
if financing was continued at that level.
Accordingly, the union filed suit against the State in July
1982, seeking more than $500 million in pay adjustments
retroactive for 3 years for 14,000 employees, including some
men. The union asserted that the State had violated the U.S.
Civil Rights Act of 1964, W ashington’s civil service law,
and the Equal Rights Amendment to the State constitution.
The Federal District Court found the State guilty of “ di
rect, overt and institutionalized discrimination” against
women in administering its 3,000 categories of workers.
The State argued that it was following the private job mar
ket, which also pays less for traditionally female jobs, and
announced that it would appeal the decision. The size of
the award will be set in November.
75
Book Reviews
Social indicators: everyone’s problem
How We Live: An Economic Perspective on Americans from
Birth to Death. By Victor R. Fuchs. Cambridge, Mass.,
Harvard University Press, 1983. 293 pp. $17.50.
It is hard to accept the notion that the important decisions
we make during the course of our lives— including the choice
as to family size— are based in large part on economic
considerations. Even the idea that we can always apply an
economic yardstick to the consequences of our decisions is
not easy to grasp. Yet, in this book, Victor Fuchs shows
us that our lives can, indeed, be viewed from “ an economic
perspective.”
Fuchs, whose previous books have focused on the growth
of the service economy and on the rising costs of health
care, describes how, as we go through the various stages
of our lives— childhood, adolescence and youth, young
adulthood, mature adulthood, and old age— the important
choices that we make (or that may be made for us) are
greatly influenced and often constrained by economic fac
tors. Life, says Fuchs, is not “ a bowl of cherries” but “ a
succession of difficult decisions” that must be made with
an eye on such “ externalities” as prices, wages, and other
economic variables.
In his discussions on the principal stages of the life cycle,
Fuchs shares a great deal of information on the relevant
trends of recent decades— such as the declining birth rate,
rising school attendance, the growing divorce rate, the entry
of women into the job market, and the growing number of
elderly. In describing these trends and their economic set
ting, he displays an excellent knowledge of a vast array of
statistics, but he does not bore us with a slew of numbers
or with the technical jargon one usually finds in most eco
nomic analyses. His easy-to-follow style should appeal to
a wide audience. However, he does not shy away from
discussing the difficult, socioeconomic problems which we
confront, nor from discussing the pros and cons of measures
which might be used in dealing with these problems.
Fuchs begins by discussing the trends in fertility, focusing
on the postwar “ boom” and subsequent “ bust” in births,
and exploring both the causes and implications of these
trends. For an “ economic perspective,” he leans toward
Richard E asterlies “ relative income theory” as the most
plausible explanation for the wide swings in fertility. Ac
76
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
cording to this theory, the persons who are bom when the
birth rate is very low (and who are thus in relatively small
numbers) grow up to find economic prospects somewhat
brighter than they had expected and, buoyed by such pros
pects, will tend to marry early and have relatively large
families, thus raising the birth rate. On the other hand, those
who are bom when the birth rate is very high will grow up
to find stiff competition for jobs and other economic op
portunities. Faced with economic conditions which do not
live up to their previously formed expectations, these “ co
horts” tend to delay family formation and therefore bring
about a new downward swing in fertility. This theory would
imply an upward swing in the birth rate during the 1980’s.
Fuchs is aware of other theories concerning trends in
fertility, with some demographers believing that it is un
reasonable to expect a sharp reversal of what they see as a
secular downtrend. He is concerned that a truly prolonged
decline will have serious consequences on the structure of
the American population— and for living conditions— in the
decades to come. To the possible consternation of the “ zero
population growth” movement, he even suggests that the
country may at some point have to adopt policies designed
to give a boost to fertility. Surprisingly, nothing is said
about the allegedly large inflow of illegal aliens into the
country, which, along with fertility and mortality trends, is
also an important element in shaping the future makeup of
the American population.
Moving to the relevant trends in the lives of youths and
adults, Fuchs discusses the economic implications of the
increases in school attendance and educational levels, and
he dwells at length on the employment trends for the various
population groups. His views concerning the tremendous
rise in labor force participation among women are partic
ularly interesting. He sees the gains in real wages and the
growth of the service economy— both economic phenom
ena— as the principal magnets which have drawn women
into the job market in large numbers. He is, of course,
aware of other factors such as the rising divorce rates, the
declining fertility rate, and the influence of the feminist
movement, but says these factors played only a secondary
role in facilitating the entry of women into the job market.
Regarding the elderly, Fuchs notes with some concern
that their number is growing faster than the population as
a whole, and he is even more concerned that fewer and
fewer are working in their sixties and seventies. Again, he
says economic forces are the main reasons for the trend
toward early retirement. He points, in particular, to the
general increase in social security benefits and to the secular
decline in self-employment opportunities, but he is aware
that other factors such as age discrimination and mandatory
retirement have also played a part in these trends. It should
be noted that while Fuchs is correct about the historical
trends, he seems to have overlooked the recent rebound in
self-employment, which has actually risen by 2 million, or
nearly 30 percent, since the early 1970’s.
Fuchs would like to see a reversal of the trend toward
early retirement, and suggests measures which seem to be
very much in line with those recently enacted into law,
including an eventual increase in the minimum age for re
tirement under social security. Fuchs is also worried about
the rising costs of health care for the elderly. He endorses
a health insurance scheme that would no longer automati
cally reimburse doctors and hospitals in line with their costs
but would, instead, “ deliver care for a fixed amount per
person or per family per year,” with medicare and medicaid
beneficiaries being given vouchers entitling them to join
such plans.
Throughout the book, Fuchs recognizes— and laments—
the diminishing role of the family in American society. For
example, he finds it unfair that schools are blamed for the
prolonged decline in scholastic test scores among children
and youth. He blames, instead, too little discipline at home
(where many children now have only one parent) and too
much TV watching. And while lamenting the declining role
of the family, Fuchs cannot help but note the growing role
of government, which he views, at best, with mixed feel
ings. He recognizes that . . . “ Government is needed to
help people cope with forces that would otherwise over
whelm them ” . . . but he would clearly like to see the gov
ernment out of certain areas which it has entered. For example,
he is totally convinced that the imposition of a minimum
wage by the Federal Government has adversely affected the
job market for youths in general, and for black youths in
particular.
In short, Fuchs’ book gives us a very insightful look at
our lives in an economic setting. In suggesting various mea
sures that might be adopted to help us cope with the most
common problems we are likely to encounter during our life
cycle, Fuch offers no panaceas. He is aware of the pros and
cons of the initiatives he is suggesting and he lays them out
in a most pragmatic fashion. This book offers a lot to the
reader, both in terms of what it tells us about our lives, as
well as what it suggests to improve our lives.
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
— Paul Flaim
Chief, Division of Data Development
and Users’ Services
Bureau of Labor Statistics
The burden of daily work
Women and Poverty in the Third World. Edited by Mayra
Buvinic, Margaret A. Lycette, William Paul McGreevey. Baltimore, M d., The Johns Hopkins Uni
versity Press, 1983. 329 pp. $27.95
During a lecture tour in Zambia, I became fully aware
of the critical role played by women in that developing
country’s agriculture. Wherever one travels in the Third
World, women are engaged in agricultural work. But, like
many others, I had been of the opinion that these women
were additional, supplemental, marginal labor who worked
in the fields between household chores and child rearing,
while the men were responsible for the organization and
overall success or failure of the yield of the land.
Zambia caused me to refocus my thinking. In Zambia,
copper was where the money had been in colonial times
and mining and its related occupations offered high wages
and opportunities. While the men had traditionally migrated
or commuted to these jobs, the women were left behind to
plant the crops, organize the season’s work, and market
surplus products. In entire regions, agriculture has largely
been the responsibility of women. Yet, I knew that training
programs sponsored by foreign donors were generally de
signed to teach men better farming methods and women
cottage industry type activities. Traditional concepts on the
part of Western nations have been slow to give way to the
actualities of the Third World.
If the authors had accomplished nothing more than to
inform policymakers that women are a critical and viable
element of the production process in Third World nations
and that economic change requires skills training for both
men and women, they would have made a major contri
bution. But the book does more than this. In a series of
essays, the authors cover a broad range of problems affecting
women in an attempt to show how these, and resultant
poverty, continue to be countervailing forces for the eco
nomic development efforts of international donors. The 12
essays are preceded by two authored by the editors, which
summarize and highlight findings of the individual chapters.
They also skillfully analyze the effects of these findings on
Third World women, the next generation, and the prospects
for development.
This book will be of particular interest to those who are
involved in the status of women, but it will also appeal to
a general audience. It presents a thesis which, in the con
tinual redesign of our Western approach to aid for the Third
World, has never been properly developed and, therefore,
has never received the attention it deserves. As Nancy Birdsail and William McGreevey state on the initial page of the
book ” . . . The ‘woman issue,’ once thought of as no more
than a welfare issue, affects the prospects of efficiency,
growth, and development in the economy as a w hole.”
Because it calls for a serious reconsideration of development
strategies in a number of areas and a review of the allocation
77
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • Book Reviews
of funds for various purposes such as improving female
productivity versus family welfare efforts, this book will
also be of special interest to project directors of international
economic development.
Making Birdsall’s and M cGreevey’s point reflected in that
sentence is the main objective of the book. The first section,
containing four essays, deals with women and work. It
concentrates on the numerous roles played by women in
developing countries. The role of homemaker in itself is a
dual one because the wife and mother not only performs
the customary functions of the homemaker in the Western
world but also transforms raw materials into products usu
ally produced in the manufacturing industry in the West. In
addition, she also performs labor market work outside the
home.
Both the qualitative and quantitative problems inherent
in these multifunctions are examined in the four chapters
which make up the second section of the book entitled
“ women and w elfare.” Its findings indicate that productiv
ity suffers all around. The need to work reflects on the time
women can spend with their children, but the time spent
with the children dictates the type of market work they can
take on. The fact that women must combine child rearing
with work outside the home requires that the older children
help with both homework and market work as soon as they
are capable of doing so, resulting in fatigue, neglect of their
studies, and, often, poor health.
The authors make it clear that in most instances it is not
the societal structure that dictates the lot of these women—
it’s economics. It is the financial need to perform three
different types of jobs, none of which, given the circum
stances, can be done properly. How much better the supply
of food and quality of nutrition for the family had the women
received proper instruction in agriculture. How much better
the quality of their lives and those of their neighbors were
they able to have surplus to sell from their agricultural
labors. How much better the quality of the nation’s labor
force were they able to free their children from early labor
to attend school or training, supply them with better nutri
tion, and devote more time to overseeing their fullest de
velopment.
All of the above are especially true for households that
are headed by women. These are discussed in the two essays
contained in section 3 of the book. Although, as the authors
point out, statistics on the proportion of families headed by
women are poor or totally lacking, it is clear that this pro
portion of the population is rapidly increasing. Major rea
sons are the rapid migration of males to the cities for work,
partly as a result of better communication and transportation,
and the general disintegration of the family structure as a
result of divorce and separation.
The final two essays— in section 4— deal with the lack
of statistical information on women in the Third World. It
would have been helpful to the reader if this discussion had
appeared earlier in the book. Perhaps the editors thought
78
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
the book would be more readable if statistical data were
placed at the end. However, the lack of official interest in
the plight of women shown in this chapter is of major con
sequence and would have been a useful reminder as the
reader progressed through the remainder of the book.
Women and Poverty in the Third World is an exceptionally
thoughtful, scholarly, well-researched, and documented work.
In addition to their own rigorous research, the authors have
drawn extensively on other literature and have succeeded
in pulling together a wide variety of material. They have
attempted to draw attention away from the welfare-oriented
programs which focused on women, to policies designed to
increase wom en’s productivity whether in the home or in
market work. They also point to the important misconcep
tion that the economic status of women is a zero-sum game—
that is, gains to women must be a loss to men. They plead,
instead, for an antipoverty strategy that justifies assistance
to poor women in terms of economic growth rather than
welfare and is embodied in projects to raise women’s pro
ductivity and income. This reviewer, who has been active
for many years in the labor economic aspects of economic
development, wholeheartedly concurs with this plea.
— Ellen
M.
B u ssey
Consulting Labor Economist
McLean, Va.
Publications received
Agriculture and natural resources
Buceóla, Steven T ., “ Risk Preferences and Short-Run Pricing
Efficiency,” A m e r ic a n J o u r n a l o f A g r ic u ltu r a l E c o n o m ic s ,
August 1983, pp. 587-91.
Carl, Ella, Richard L. Kilmer, Lawrence W. Kenny, “ Evaluating
Implicit Prices of Intermediate Products,” A m e r ic a n J o u r n a l
o f A g r ic u ltu r a l E c o n o m ic s , August 1983, pp. 592-95.
Dhir, Krishna S., Joann B. Stewart, Willie E. Hopkins, “ Coal:
A Diminishing Hope for A merica’s Energy N eeds,” B u s in e s s
a n d S o c ie ty , Spring 1983, pp. 35 -3 9 .
Duncan, Marvin, “ Financing Agriculture in the 1980s,” E c o
n o m ic R e v ie w , Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Ju ly August 1983, pp. 3 -1 2 .
Hottel, J. Bruce and Bruce L. Gardner, “ The Rate of Return to
Investment in Agriculture and Measuring Net Farm Incom e,”
A m e r ic a n J o u r n a l o f A g r ic u ltu r a l E c o n o m ic s , August 1983,
pp. 5 53-57.
Quizon, Jaime B. and Hans P. Binswanger, “ Income Distribution
in Agriculture: A Unified A pproach,” A m e r ic a n J o u r n a l o f
A g r ic u ltu r a l E c o n o m ic s , August 1983, pp. 5 26-38.
Economic and social statistics
Anderton, Douglas L ., Joseph Conaty, Thomas W. Pullman,
“ Population Estimates from Longitudinal Records in O th
erwise Data-Deficient Settings,” D e m o g r a p h y , August 1983,
pp. 2 73-84.
Bernstein, Jeffrey I., “ Investment, Labor Skills, and Variable
Factor Utilization in the Theory of the Firm ,” T h e C a n a d ia n
J o u r n a l o f E c o n o m ic s , August 1983, pp. 463-79.
T h e C a n a d ia n J o u r n a l o f E c o n o m ic s ,
August 1983, pp. 4 2 0 -
28.
Ham, John C ., “ Estimation of a Labor Supply Model with Cen
soring Due to Unemployment and Underemployment,” R e
v ie w o f E c o n o m ic S tu d ie s , July 1982, pp. 335-54.
Economic and Social Committee of the European Communities,
T r a n s p o r t P o lic y in th e 1 9 8 0 s : O p in io n . Brussels, Belgium,
Economic and Social Committee of the European Commu
nities, 1983, 99 pp.
Harris, Milton and Bengt Holmstrom, “ A Theory of Wage Dy
nam ics,” R e v ie w o f E c o n o m ic S tu d ie s , July 1983, pp. 3 1 5 33.
Freedman, David H ., “ Seeking a Broader Approach to Employ
ment and W orklife in Industrialized Market-Economy Coun
tries,” L a b o u r a n d S o c ie ty , A pril-June 1983, pp. 107-22.
MacDonald, Glenn M ., “ The Size and Structure of Union-Nonunion Wage Differentials in Canadian Industry: Corrobora
tion, Refinement, and Extension,” T h e C a n a d ia n J o u r n a l o f
E c o n o m ic s , August 1983, pp. 480-85.
Levy, Michael E. and others, A W o r ld E c o n o m ic P e r s p e c t i v e .
New York, The Conference Board, 1983, 15 pp. (Economic
Policy Issues, 3.)
Pakistan, Federal Bureau of Statistics, H o u s e h o ld I n c o m e a n d
E x p e n d itu r e S u r v e y , 1 9 7 9 , Karachi, Government of Pakistan,
Federal Bureau of Statistics, Statistics Division, 1983, 365 pp.
Rosen, Sherwin, T h e E q u ilib r iu m A p p r o a c h to L a b o r M a r k e ts .
Cambridge, M ass., National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc., 1983, 57 pp. ( n b e r Working Paper Series, 1165.) $1.50.
U.S. Bureau of the Census, A m e r i c a ’s B la c k P o p u la tio n , 1 9 7 0 to
1 9 8 2 : A S ta tis tic a l V ie w . By William C. Matney and Dwight
L. Johnson. Washington, U.S. Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census, Office of Public Information, 1983,
27 pp. (Special Publication P 1 0 /P O P -8 3 -1 .) Stock No. 0 0 3 024 -0 5 6 2 4 -1 . $3.50, Superintendent of Documents, Wash
ington 20204.
Wiesmeth, Hans, “ Price Discrimination Based on Imperfect In
formation: Necessary and Sufficient C onditions,” R e v ie w o f
E c o n o m ic S tu d ie s , July 1982,-pp. 391-402.
Industrial relations
Bazerman, Max H. and Henry S. Farber, A r b itr a to r D e c is io n
M a k in g : W hen A r e F in a l O ffers I m p o r ta n t? Cambridge, Mass.,
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1983, 39 pp.
( n b e r Working Paper Series, 1183.) $1.50.
Flanagan, Robert J., David W. Soskice, Lloyd Ulman, U n io n ism ,
E c o n o m ic S ta b iliz a tio n , a n d I n c o m e s P o lic ie s : E u r o p e a n E x
Washington, The
Brookings Institution, 1983, 705 pp. $36.95; cloth; $18.95,
paper.
p e r ie n c e (S tu d ie s in W a g e - P r ic e P o lic y ) .
Levitan, Sar A. and Clifford M. Johnson, “ Labor and Manage
ment: The Illusion of C ooperation,” H a r v a r d B u s in e s s R e
v ie w , Septem ber-October 1983, beginning on p. 8.
Voight, Christopher J., “ Age Discrimination: Implications of the
Wyoming D ecision,” C a lif o r n ia P u b lic E m p lo y e e R e la tio n s ,
September 1983, pp. 2 -9 .
Wood, W. D. and Pradeep Kumar, eds., T h e C u r r e n t I n d u s tr ia l
R e la tio n s S c e n e in C a n a d a , 1 9 8 3 . Kingston, Ontario, Queen’s
University, Industrial Relations Center, 1983, 557 pp. $50,
paper.
International economics
Burgess, David F., “ The Impact of Foreign Trade Distortions on
the Social Discount R ate,” T h e C a n a d ia n J o u r n a l o f E c o
n o m ic s , August 1983, pp. 486-507.
Coe, David and Gerald Holtham, “ Rising Income— The ‘Split’
Between Output and Inflation,” T h e o e c d O b s e r v e r , July
1983, pp. 23-27.
Das, Satya, P., “ Multinational Enterprise Under Uncertainty,”
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Norton, W. E. and R. McDonald, “ The Decline in Australia’s
Economic Performance in the 1970s: An Analysis of Annual
D ata,” A u s tr a lia n E c o n o m ic P a p e r s , June 1983, pp. 1-29.
Timmer, C. Peter and Michael R. Reich, “ Japan and the U.S.:
Trading Shots Over Beef and O ranges,” C h a lle n g e , September-O cober 1983, pp. 18-24.
Tokyo Metropolitan Government, C ity P la n n in g o f T o k y o . Tokyo,
Japan, Tokyo Metropolitan Government, The Liaison and
Protocol Section, International Communications Division,
Bureau of Citizens and Cultural Affairs, 1983, 144 pp. ( t m g
Municipal Library, 13.)
von Furstenberg, George M ., “ Domestic Determinants of the Cur
rent Account Balance of the United States,” Q u a r te r ly J o u r
n a l o f E c o n o m ic s , August 1983, pp. 401-25.
W eyant, John P., “ The Energy Crisis Is Over . . . A gain,” C h a l
le n g e , Septem ber-O ctober 1983, pp. 12-17.
Labor and economic history
Bullock, Paul and others. B u ild in g C a lif o r n ia : T h e S to r y o f th e
C a r p e n t e r ’s U n io n . Los Angeles, University of California,
Institute of Industrial Relations, Center for Labor Research
and Education, 1982, 388 pp.
Sturmthal, Adolf, L e ft o f C e n te r : E u r o p e a n L a b o r S in c e W o r ld
W a r II. Urbana, The Board of Trustees of the University of
Illinois, 1983, 302 pp. $21.95, University of Illinois Press,
Champaign, 111.
Labor force
Great Britain, Department of Employment, “ Equal Opportunities
for Women in Em ploym ent,” by Michael W ebb, E m p lo y m e n t
G a z e tte , August 1983, pp. 335-37.
----------“ Unemployment Flows: New Statistics,” E m p lo y m e n t G a
z e t te , August 1983, pp. 351-58.
McGavin, P. A ., “ Equal Pay for Women: A Re-Assessment of
the Australian Experience,” A u s tr a lia n E c o n o m ic P a p e r s ,
June 1983, pp. 4 8 -6 7 .
Piel, Gerard, “ Re-entering Paradise: The Mechanization of W ork,”
C h a lle n g e , Septem ber-O ctober 1983, pp. 4 -1 1 .
Monetary and fiscal policy
Di Clemente, John J., “ Including Thrifts in Bank Merger Anal
y sis,” E c o n o m ic P e r s p e c t i v e s , Federal Reserve Bank of Chi
cago, July-A ugust 1983, pp. 3 -1 6 .
Hughes, Dean W ., “ Financial Condition of Agricultural Lenders
in a Time of Farm D istress,” E c o n o m ic R e v ie w , Federal
Reserve Bank of Kansas City, July-A ugust 1983, pp. 13-
79
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • Book Reviews
Wood, John H ., “ Do Yield Curves Normally Slope Up? The Term
Structure of Interest Rates, 1862-1982,” E c o n o m ic P e r
s p e c tiv e s , Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, July-A ugust
1983, pp. 17-23.
Chen, Yung-Ping, T h e L o n g - R a n g e o a s d i D e f ic it. (Testimony at
Hearings before the Social Security Subcommittee, Ways and
Means Committee, House of Representatives, Feb. 9, 1983).
9 pp. Available from the Communications Office at The
American College, Bryn Mawr, Pa.
Productivity and technological change
Sen, Amartya, Poor, Relatively Speaking,” O x f o r d E c o n o m ic
P a p e r s , July 1983, pp. 153-69.
Graham-Moore, Brian E. and Timothy L. Ross, P r o d u c tiv ity G a in s h a r in g : H o w E m p lo y e e I n c e n tiv e P r o g r a m s C a n I m p r o v e
B u s in e ss P e r f o r m a n c e . Englewood Cliffs, N .J., Prentice-Hall,
Inc., 1983, 173 pp. $18.95, cloth; $8.95, paper.
Great Britain, Department of Employment, “ A ‘Culture of Change’
in the Electronics Industry,” by John Pugh, E m p lo y m e n t G a
z e tte , August 1983, pp. 359-64.
----------“ Technological Changes and the Content of Jobs,” by
G. C. White, E m p lo y m e n t G a z e tte , August 1983, pp. 3 2 9 34.
“ State Retirement Systems: 10th Annual Survey,” P e n s io n W o r ld ,
August 1983, pp. 5 3 -67.
Worker training and development
Great Britain, Department of Employment, “ Youth Training Scheme
and Training for Skill O w nership,” by Chris Hayes, Nickie
Fonda, Chris Noble, E m p lo y m e n t G a z e tte , August 1983,
pp. 344-48.
Taylor, Robert E ., Howard Rosen, Frank C. Pratzner, eds., R e
s p o n s iv e n e s s o f T r a in in g I n s titu tio n s to C h a n g in g L a b o r M a r
Great Britain, Manpower Services Commission, M o n ito r in g N e w
T e c h n o lo g y a n d E m p lo y m e n t. By Tim Brady and Sonia Liff.
Sheffield, Yorkshire, England, Manpower Services Commis
sion, Manpower Intelligence and Planning, 1983, 67 pp.
“ Robots: The Users and the M akers,” T h e
1983, pp. 11-17.
o e c d
O b server,
Columbus, The Ohio State University, The
National Center for Research in Vocational Education, 1983
341 pp.
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ket D em a n d s.
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Wages and compensation
Ellig, Bruce, “ W hat’s Ahead in Compensation and Benefits,”
M a n a g e m e n t R e v ie w , August 1983, pp. 56-61.
L o n g - T e r m I n c e n tiv e C o m p e n s a tio n G r a n ts A m o n g th e T o p 2 0 0 :
A n n u a l R e p o r t, 1 9 8 3 . New York, Frederick W. Cook & Co.,
Inc., 1983, 19 pp.
Psacharopoulos, George, “ Education and Private Versus Public
Sector Pay,” L a b o u r a n d S o c ie ty , A pril-June 1983, pp. 123—
34.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, A r e a W a g e S u r v e y s : P a tte r s o n —
C lif to n — P a s s a ic , N e w J e r s e y M e tr o p o lita n A r e a , A p r il 1 9 8 3
(Bulletin 3020-24, 42 pp., $ 3 .7 5 ); R ic h m o n d , V ir g in ia , M e t
r o p o lita n A r e a , J u n e 1 9 8 3 (Bulletin 3020-25, 43 pp., $3.75);
F r e s n o , C a lif o r n ia , M e tr o p o lita n A r e a , J u n e 1 9 8 3 (Bulletin
3 0 2 0 -2 6 , 40 pp ., $3.75); P r o v i d e n c e — W a r w ic k — P a w
tu c k e t, R h o d e I s la n d —M a s s a c h u s e tts , M e tr o p o lita n A r e a , J u n e
1 9 8 3 (Bulletin 3020-27, 34 pp., $3.75). Available from the
S uperintendent o f D ocum ents, W ashington 20402, g p o
bookstores, or b l s regional offices.
---------- E m p lo y e e B e n e fits in M e d iu m a n d L a r g e F ir m s , 1 9 8 2 .
Washington, 1983, 456 pp. (Bulletin 2176.) Stock No. 0 2 9 0 0 1 -0 2 7 6 1 -3 . $4.50, Superintendent of Documents, W ash
ington 20402.
Welfare programs and social insurance
Burtless, Gary and Jerry Hausman, ‘D o u b le D i p p i n g ”: T h e C o m
b in e d E ffe c ts o f S o c ia l S e c u r ity a n d C i v i l S e r v ic e P e n s io n s
Reprinted from the J o u r n a l o f P u b
lic E c o n o m ic s , Vol. 18, 1982, pp. 139-59. Cambridge, Mass.,
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. ( n b e r Reprint
No. 138.) $1.50.
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dors, and counter s a l e s ..............................................
2 . M a il s u b s c r ip tio n s ............................................................
C . T o t a l p a id c i r c u la t i o n ..................................................................
D. F re e distribution by mail, carrier, or other m eans
( s a m p l e s , c o m p li m e n t a r y , a n d o t h e r fr e e c o p i e s )
..
E. T otal distribution (sum of C and D ) ...................................
F. C o p ie s not distributed:
1. O ffice use, leftover, unaccounted, spoiled after
p r in t in g ...............................................................................
2. R eturn s from new s agen ts ...........................................
G . T otal (sum of E, F1 and 2 — should equal net press
run show n in A ) .........................................................................
1 5 ,3 8 7
1 5 ,1 3 3
1 ,6 3 0
1 1 ,8 4 5
1 3 ,4 7 5
1,42 7
1T845
1 3 ,2 7 2
1 ,7 1 2
1 5 ,1 8 7
1,711
14^983
200
na
1 5 ,3 s
/
1 50
NA
1 5 ,1 3 3
o n E m p lo y e e R e tir e m e n t.
80
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
I certify that th e state m en ts m ad e by m e ab o v e a re correct and com p lete.
(S igned) H enry Low enstern, Editor-in-C hief
Current
Labor Statistics
Notes on Current Labor Statistics
82
Schedule of release dates for major BLS statistical series
82
Employment data from household survey. Definitions and notes
83
83
84
85
1 . Employment status of the noninstitutional population, selected years,
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
1950-82 ...........................................................
Employment status of the population, including Armed Forces in the
UnitedStates, by sex, seasonally adjusted . . . .
Employment status of the civilian population by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, seasonally ad ju sted....................
Selected employment indicators, seasonally ad ju sted ......................................................................................................................
Selected unemployment indicators, seasonally ad ju sted .................................................................................................................
Unemployment rates, by sex and age, seasonally adjusted . . .•....................................................................................................
Unemployed persons, by reason for unemployment, seasonally ad ju sted .................................................................................
Duration of unemployment, seasonally adjusted...............................................................................................................................
Employment, hours, and earnings data from establishment surveys. Definitions and notes
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
Employment by industry, selected years, 1950-82 ........................................................................................................................
Employment by State ..............................................................................................................................................................................
Employment by industry division and major manufacturing group, seasonally adjusted .......................................................
Hours and earnings, by industry division, selected years, 1950-82 ...........................................................................................
Weekly hours, by industry division and major manufacturing group, seasonally adjusted ..................................................
Hourly earnings, by industry division and major manufacturing group ....................................................................................
Hourly Earnings Index, by industry division ...................................................................................................................................
Weekly earnings, by industry division and major manufacturing group ....................................................................................
Indexes of diffusion: industries in which employment in creased ..................................................................................................
Unemployment insurance data. Definitions...............................................................................................................................
18. Unemployment insurance and employment service operations
86
88
88
88
89
90
^
91
92
93
94
94
95
95
96
....................................................................................................
96
........................................................................................................................................................
Consumer Price Index, 1967-82 ..........................................................................................................................................................
Consumer Price Index, U.S. city average, generalsummary andselected it e m s .......................................................................
Consumer Price Index, cross-classification of region andpopulationsize c l a s s .............. .................................................
Consumer Price Index, selected areas .................................................................................................................................................
Producer Price Indexes, by stage of processing ...............................................................................................................................
Producer Price Indexes, by commodity groupings ...........................................................................................................................
Producer Price Indexes, by special commodity groupings .............................................................................................................
Producer Price Indexes, by durability of product .............................................................................................................................
Producer Price Indexes for the output of selected SIC industries ................................................................................................
97
98
98
104
105
106
107
109
109
110
Productivity data. Definitions and notes ..........................................................................................
m
Price data. Definitions and notes
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
Annual indexes pf productivity, hourly compensation, unit costs, and prices, selected years, 1950-82 .........................
Annual changes in productivity, hourly compensation, unit costs, and prices, 1972-82 .....................................................
Quarterly indexes of productivity, hourly compensation, unit costs, and prices, seasonally adjusted ................................
Percent change from preceding quarter and year in productivity, hourly compensation, unitcosts, and p r ic e s ...............
Wage and compensation data. Definitions and notes .....................................................................
32.
33.
34.
35.
36.
Employment Cost Index, total compensation, by occupation and industry group ..................................................................
Employment Cost Index, wages and salaries, by occupation and industry group ..................................................................
Employment Cost Index, private nonfarm workers, by bargaining status, region, and areasize .........................................
Wage and compensation change, major collective bargaining settlements, 1978 to d a te .......................................................
Effective wage adjustments in collective bargaining units covering 1,000 workers or more,1978 to date .......................
Work stoppage data. Definition
..........................................................................................................................................................
37. Work stoppages involving 1,000 workers or more, 1947 to date ...............................................................................................
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Ill
112
H3
114
n5
116
117
118
119
119
120
120
81
NOTES ON CURRENT LABOR STATISTICS
This section of the R e v ie w presents the principal statistical series
collected and calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. A brief
introduction to each group of tables provides definitions, notes on
the data, sources, and other material usually found in footnotes.
Readers who need additional information are invited to consult
the BLS regional offices listed on the inside front cover of this
issue of the R e v ie w . Some general notes applicable to several series
are given below.
Seasonal adjustment. Certain monthly and quarterly data are adjusted to
eliminate the effect o f such factors as climatic conditions, industry pro
duction schedules, opening and closing of schools, holiday buying periods,
and vacation practices, which might otherwise mask short-term movements
o f the statistical series. Tables containing these data are identified as “ sea
sonally adjusted." Seasonal effects are estimated on the basis of past
experience. When new seasonal factors are computed each year, revisions
may affect seasonally adjusted data for several preceding years.
Seasonally adjusted labor force data in tables 3 - 8 were revised in the
February 1983 issue o f the Review, to reflect experience through 1982.
Beginning in January 1980, the BLS introduced two major modifications
in the seasonal adjustment methodology for labor force data. First, the
data are being seasonally adjusted with a new procedure called X -11/
ARIMA, which was developed at Statistics Canada as an extension of the
standard X-l 1 method. A detailed description of the procedure appears in
The X -ll ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment Method by Estela Bee Dagum
(Statistics Canada Catalogue No. 12-564E, February 1980). The second
change is that seasonal factors are now being calculated for use during the
first 6 months o f the year, rather than for the entire, year, and then are
calculated at mid-year for the July-December period. Revisions of historical
data continue to be made only at the end of each calendar year.
Annual revision of the seasonally adjusted payroll data shown in tables
11, 13, and 15 were made in August 1981 using the X- l l ARIMA seasonal
adjustment methodology. New seasonal factors for productivity data in
tables 29 and 30 are usually introduced in the September issue. Seasonally
adjusted indexes and percent changes from month to month and from
quarter to quarter are published for numerous Consumer and Producer
Price Index series. Flowever, seasonally adjusted indexes are not published
for the U.S. average All Items CPI. Only seasonally adjusted percent
changes are available for this series.
Adjustments for price changes. Some data are adjusted to eliminate the
effect of changes in price. These adjustments are made by dividing current
dollar values by the Consumer Price Index or the appropriate component
of the index, then multiplying by 100. For example, given a current hourly
wage rate of $3 and a current price index number of 150, where 1967 = 100,
the hourly rate expressed in 1967 dollars is $2 ($3/150 x 100 = $2). The
resulting values are described as “ real,” “ constant,” or “ 1967” dollars.
Availability of information. Data that supplement the tables in this section
are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in a variety of sources.
Press releases provide the latest statistical information published by the
Bureau; the major recurring releases are published according to the schedule
given below. More information from household and establishment surveys
is provided in Employment and Earnings, a monthly publication of the
Bureau. Comparable household information is published in a two-volume
data book -Labor Force Statistics Derived From the Current Population
Survey, Bulletin 2096. Comparable establishment information appears in
two data books-Employment and Earnings, United States, and Emploxment and Earnings, States and Areas, and their annual supplements. More
detailed information on wages and other aspects of collective bargaining
appears in the monthly periodical, Current Wage Developments. More
detailed price information is published each month in the periodicals, the
CP1 Detailed Report and Producer Prices and Price Indexes.
Symbols
p = preliminary. To improve the timeliness of some series, pre
liminary figures are issued based on representative but in
complete returns.
r = revised. Generally, this revision reflects the availability of
later data but may also reflect other adjustments,
n.e.c. = not elsewhere classified.
S ch edule of release dates for BLS statistical series
S e rie s
R elease
Perio d
R e le a s e
Perio d
date
R e le a s e
covered
P erio d
date
covered
date
covered
E m p lo y m e n t C o s t I n d e x ......................
N ovem ber 3
E m p lo y m e n t s it u a tio n
N ovem ber
4
O c to b e r
N ovem ber
9
3 r d q u a r te r
..................
U . S . I m p o r t a n d E x p o r t P r ic e In d e x e s
P r o d u c e r P r ic e I n d e x
. . . .
...............................
3 r d q u a r te r
M L R ta b le
3 2 -3 4
D ecem ber
2
N ovem ber
J a n u a ry
6
D ecem ber
1 -1 1
N o ve m b e r 10
O c to b e r
D e c e m b e r 16
N ovem ber
J a n u a ry 13
D ecem ber
2 3 -2 7
C o n s u m e r P r ic e I n d e x ..................
N o ve m b e r 23
O c to b e r
D e c e m b e r 21
N ovem ber
J a n u a ry 24
D ecem ber
1 9 -2 2
R e a l e a r n i n g s ........................................
N ovem ber 23
O c to b e r
D e c e m b e r 21
N ovem ber
J a n u a ry 24
D ecem ber
1 2 -1 6
J a n u a ry 25
4 t h q u a r te r
2 8 -3 1
J a n u a ry 27
1983
3 5 -3 6
P r o d u c t i v it y a n d c o s ts :
N o n f in a n c ia l c o r p o r a t i o n s ...............................
N o n f a r m b u s in e s s a n d m a n u fa c t u r in g
J
. . .
M a jo r c o lle c tiv e b a r g a in in g s e t t le m e n t s . . . .
82
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N ovem ber 30
3 r d q u a r te r
EMPLOYMENT DATA FROM THE HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
in this section are obtained from the Current
Population Survey, a program of personal interviews conducted
monthly by the Bureau of the Census for the Bureau of Labor
Statistics. The sample consists of about 60,000 households selected
to represent the U.S population 16 years of age and older. House
holds are interviewed on a rotating basis, so that three-fourths of
the sample is the same for any 2 consecutive months.
E
m
p l o
y m
e n
t
d
a t a
Definitions
Employed persons include (1) all civilians who worked for pay any
time during the week which includes the 12th day of the month or who
worked unpaid for 15 hours or more in a family-operated enterprise and
(2) those who were temporarily absent from their regular jobs because of
illness, vacation, industrial dispute, or similar reasons. Members of the
Armed Forces stationed in the United States are also included in the em
ployed total. A person working at more than one job is counted only in
the job at which he or she worked the greatest number of hours.
Unemployed persons are those who did not work during the survey
week, but were available for work except for temporary illness and had
looked for jobs within the preceding 4 weeks. Persons who did not look
for work because they were on layoff or waiting to start new jobs within
the next 30 days are also counted among the unemployed. The overall
unemployment rate represents the number unemployed as a percent of
the labor force, including the resident Armed Forces. The unemployment
1.
rate for all civilian workers represents the number unemployed as a percent
of the civilian labor force.
The labor force consists of all employed or unemployed civilians plus
members of the Armed Forces stationed in the United States. Persons not
in the labor force are those not classified as employed or unemployed;
this group includes persons who are retired, those engaged in their own
housework, those not working while attending school, those unable to
work because of long-term illness, those discouraged from seeking work
because of personal or job market factors, and those who are voluntarily
idle. The noninstitutional population comprises all persons 16 years of
age and older who are not inmates of penal or mental institutions, sani
tariums, or homes for the aged, infirm, or needy, and members of the
Armed Forces stationed in the United States. The labor force participation
rate is the proportion of the noninstitutional population that is in the labor
force. The employment-population ratio is total employment (including
the resident Armed Forces) as a percent of the noninstitutional population.
Notes on the data
From time to time, and especially after a decennial census, adjustments
are made in the Current Population Survey figures to correct for estimating
errors during the preceding years. These adjustments affect the compara
bility of historical data presented in table 1. A description of these ad
justments and their effect on the various data series appear in the Explanatory
Notes of Employment and Earnings.
Data in tables 2 - 8 are seasonally adjusted, based on the seasonal ex
perience through December 1982.
E m ploym ent status of the noninstitutional population, 16 years and over, selected years, 1 9 5 0 -8 2
[ N u m b e r s in t h o u s a n d s ]
Labor force
U n e m p lo y e d
Em ployed
Year
N o n in s ti
tu tio n a l
p o pulation
Not in
C iv ilia n
N u m b er
P ercent ot
p o pulation
Total
P ercent ol
p opulation
P e rc e n t ot
N o n a g ri-
A rm ed
Forces
Total
A g ricu ltu re
Num ber
c u ltu ral
la b o r torce
la b o r
force
in d u stries
1950
......................
1 0 6 ,1 6 4
6 3 ,3 7 7
5 9 .7
6 0 ,0 8 7
5 6 .6
1 ,1 6 9
5 8 ,9 1 8
7 ,1 6 0
5 1 ,7 5 8
3 ,2 8 8
5 2
4 2 ,7 8 7
1955
......................
1 1 1 ,7 4 7
6 7 ,0 8 7
6 0 .0
6 4 ,2 3 4
5 7 .5
2 ,0 6 4
6 2 ,1 7 0
6 ,4 5 0
5 5 ,7 2 2
2 ,8 5 2
4 .3
4 4 ,6 6 0
1960
......................
1 1 9 ,1 0 6
7 1 ,4 8 9
6 0 .0
6 7 ,6 3 9
5 6 .8
1 ,8 6 1
6 5 ,7 7 8
5 ,4 5 8
6 0 ,3 1 8
3 ,8 5 2
5 .4
4 6 ,6 1 7
1965
......................
1 2 8 ,4 5 9
7 6 ,4 0 1
5 9 .5
7 3 ,0 3 4
5 6 .9
1 ,9 4 6
7 1 ,0 8 8
4 ,3 6 1
6 6 ,7 2 6
3 ,3 6 6
4 .4
5 2 ,0 5 8
1966
......................
1 3 0 ,1 8 0
7 7 ,8 9 2
5 9 .8
7 5 ,0 1 7
5 7 .6
2 ,1 2 2
7 2 ,8 9 5
3 ,9 7 9
6 8 ,9 1 5
2 ,8 7 5
3 .7
5 2 ,2 8 8
1967
......................
1 3 2 ,0 9 2
7 9 ,5 6 5
6 0 .2
7 6 ,5 9 0
5 8 .0
2 ,2 1 8
7 4 ,3 7 2
3 ,8 4 4
7 0 ,5 2 7
2 ,9 7 5
3 .7
5 2 ,5 2 7
1968
......................
1 3 4 ,2 8 1
8 0 ,9 9 0
6 0 .3
7 8 ,1 7 3
5 8 .2
2 ,2 5 3
7 5 ,9 2 0
3 ,8 1 7
7 2 ,1 0 3
2 ,8 1 7
3 .5
5 3 ,2 9 1
3 ,6 0 6
7 4 ,2 9 6
2 ,8 3 2
3 .4
5 3 ,6 0 2
3 ,4 6 3
7 5 ,2 1 5
4 ,0 9 3
4 .8
5 4 ,3 1 5
5 5 ,8 3 4
1969
......................
1 3 6 ,5 7 3
8 2 ,9 7 2
6 0 .8
8 0 ,1 4 0
5 8 .7
2 ,2 3 8
7 7 ,9 0 2
1970
......................
1 3 9 ,2 0 3
8 4 ,8 8 9
6 1 .0
8 0 ,7 9 6
5 8 .0
2 ,1 1 8
7 8 ,6 7 8
1971
......................
1 4 2 ,1 8 9
8 6 ,3 5 5
6 0 .7
8 1 ,3 4 0
5 7 .2
1 ,9 7 3
7 9 ,3 6 7
3 ,3 9 4
7 5 ,9 7 2
5 ,0 1 6
5 .8
8 2 ,1 5 3
3 ,4 8 4
7 8 ,6 6 9
4 ,8 8 2
5 .5
5 7 ,0 9 1
3 ,4 7 0
8 1 ,5 9 4
4 ,3 5 5
4 .8
5 7 ,6 6 7
1972
......................
1 4 5 ,9 3 9
8 8 ,8 4 7
6 0 .9
8 3 ,9 6 6
5 7 .5
1 ,8 1 3
1973
......................
1 4 8 .8 7 0
9 1 ,2 0 3
6 1 .3
8 6 ,8 3 8
5 8 .3
1 ,7 7 4
8 5 ,0 6 4
1974
......................
1 5 1 ,8 4 1
9 3 ,6 7 0
6 1 .7
8 8 ,5 1 5
5 8 .3
1 ,7 2 1
8 6 ,7 9 4
3 ,5 1 5
8 3 ,2 7 9
5 ,1 5 6
5 .5
5 8 ,1 7 1
1975
......................
1 5 4 ,8 3 1
9 5 ,4 5 3
6 1 .6
8 7 ,5 2 4
5 6 .5
1 ,6 7 8
8 5 ,8 4 5
3 ,4 0 8
8 2 ,4 3 8
7 ,9 2 9
8 .3
5 9 ,3 7 7
1976
......................
1 5 7 ,8 1 8
9 7 ,8 2 6
6 2 .0
9 0 ,4 2 0
5 7 .3
1 ,6 6 8
8 8 ,7 5 2
3 ,3 3 1
8 5 ,4 2 1
7 ,4 0 6
7 .6
1977
......................
1 6 0 ,6 8 9
1 0 0 ,6 6 5
6 2 .6
9 3 ,6 7 3
5 8 .3
1 ,6 5 6
9 2 ,0 1 7
3 ,2 8 3
8 8 ,7 3 4
6 ,9 9 1
6 .9
6 0 ,0 2 5
5 9 ,9 9 1
1978
......................
1 5 3 ,5 4 1
1 0 3 ,8 8 2
6 3 .5
9 7 ,6 7 9
5 9 .7
1 ,6 3 1
9 6 ,0 4 8
3 ,3 8 7
9 2 ,6 6 1
6 ,2 0 2
6 .0
5 9 ,6 5 9
1979
......................
1 6 6 ,4 6 0
1 0 6 ,5 5 9
6 4 .0
1 0 0 ,4 2 1
6 0 .3
1 ,5 9 7
9 8 ,8 2 4
3 ,3 4 7
9 5 ,4 7 7
6 ,1 3 7
5 .8
5 9 ,9 0 0
1980
......................
1 6 9 ,3 4 9
1 0 8 ,5 4 4
6 4 .1
1 0 0 ,9 0 7
5 9 .6
1 ,6 0 4
9 9 ,3 0 3
3 ,3 6 4
9 5 ,9 3 8
7 ,6 3 7
7 .0
6 0 ,8 0 6
1981
......................
1 7 1 ,7 7 5
1 1 0 ,3 1 5
6 5 .2
1 0 2 ,0 4 2
5 9 .4
1 ,6 4 5
1 0 0 ,3 9 7
3 ,3 6 8
9 7 ,0 3 0
8 ,2 7 3
7 .5
6 1 ,4 6 0
1982
......................
1 7 3 ,9 3 9
1 1 1 ,8 7 2
6 4 .3
1 0 1 ,1 9 4
5 8 .2
1 ,6 6 8
9 9 ,5 2 6
3 ,4 0 1
9 6 ,1 2 5
1 0 ,5 7 8
9 .5
6 2 ,0 6 7
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83
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • Current Labor Statistics: Household Data
2.
Em ploym ent status of the population, including A rm ed Forces in the U nited States, by sex, seasonally adjusted
[ N u m b e r s in t h o u s a n d s ]
1981
198 2
1983
1982
Annual a verag e
E m p lo y m e n t status and sex
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D ec.
Jan .
Feb.
M a r.
Apr.
M ay
June
July
A ug.
S e pt.
TOTAL
...................................
1 7 1 ,7 7 5
1 7 3 ,9 3 9
1 7 4 ,3 6 0
1 7 4 ,5 4 9
1 7 4 ,7 1 8
1 7 4 ,8 6 4
1 7 5 ,0 2 1
1 7 5 ,1 6 9
1 7 5 ,3 2 0
1 7 5 ,4 6 5
1 7 5 ,6 2 2
1 7 5 ,7 9 3
1 7 5 ,9 7 0
1 7 6 ,1 2 2
1 7 6 ,2 9 7
......................................................................
1 1 0 ,3 1 5
1 1 1 ,8 7 2
1 1 2 ,5 2 8
1 1 2 ,4 2 0
1 1 2 ,7 0 2
1 1 2 ,7 9 4
1 1 2 ,2 1 5
1 1 2 ,2 1 7
1 1 2 ,1 4 8
1 1 2 ,4 5 7
1 1 2 ,4 1 8
1 1 3 ,6 0 0
1 1 3 ,5 3 9
1 1 3 ,9 4 3
1 1 4 ,0 6 3
6 4 .2
6 4 .3
6 4 .5
6 4 .4
6 4 .5
6 4 .5
6 4 .1
6 4 .1
6 4 .0
6 4 .1
6 4 .0
6 4 .6
6 4 .5
6 4 .7
6 4 .7
1 0 2 ,0 4 2
1 0 1 ,1 9 4
1 0 1 ,2 1 3
1 0 0 ,8 4 4
1 0 0 ,7 9 6
1 0 0 ,7 5 8
1 0 0 ,7 7 0
1 0 0 ,7 2 7
1 0 0 ,7 6 7
1 0 1 ,1 2 9
1 0 1 ,2 2 6
1 0 2 ,4 5 4
1 0 2 ,9 4 9
1 0 3 ,2 4 5
1 0 3 ,6 4 0
N o n in s titu t io n a l p o p u l a t i o n 1 ’ 2
L a b o r fo rc e 2
P a r tic ip a t io n r a te 3
.......................................
T o ta l e m p lo y e d 2
E m p lo y m e n t- p o p u la t io n 4
......................
5 9 .4
5 8 .2
58 0
5 7 .8
5 7 .7
5 7 .6
5 7 .6
5 7 .5
5 7 .5
5 7 .6
5 7 .6
5 8 .3
5 8 .5
5 8 .6
5 8 .8
...............................
1 ,6 4 5
1 ,6 6 8
1 ,6 7 0
1 ,6 6 8
1 ,6 6 0
1 ,6 6 5
1 ,6 6 7
1 ,6 6 4
1 ,6 6 4
1 ,6 7 1
1 ,6 6 9
1 ,6 6 8
1 ,6 6 4
1 ,6 8 2
1 ,6 9 5
C iv ilia n e m p l o y e d ................................................
1 0 0 ,3 9 7
9 9 ,5 2 6
9 9 .5 4 3
9 9 ,1 7 6
9 9 ,1 3 6
9 9 ,0 9 3
9 9 ,1 0 3
9 9 ,0 6 3
9 9 ,1 0 3
9 9 ,4 5 8
9 9 ,5 5 7
1 0 0 ,7 8 6
1 0 1 ,2 8 5
1 0 1 ,5 6 3
1 0 1 ,9 4 5
R e s id e n t A r m e d F o r c e s ’
.........................................................
3 ,3 6 8
3 ,4 0 1
3 ,3 6 3
3 ,4 1 3
3 ,4 6 6
3 ,4 1 1
3 ,4 1 2
3 ,3 9 3
3 ,3 7 5
3 ,3 7 1
3 ,3 6 7
3 ,5 2 2
3 ,5 2 7
3 ,4 8 9
3 ,2 9 0
N o n a g r ic u ltu r a l i n d u s t r i e s ......................
9 7 ,0 3 0
9 6 ,1 2 5
9 6 ,1 8 0
9 5 ,7 6 3
9 5 ,6 7 0
9 5 ,6 8 2
9 5 ,6 9 1
9 5 ,6 7 0
9 5 ,7 2 9
9 6 ,0 8 8
9 6 ,1 9 0
9 7 ,2 6 4
9 7 ,7 5 8
9 8 ,0 7 4
9 8 ,6 5 5
A g r ic u ltu r e
U n e m p l o y e d .................................................................
U n e m p lo y m e n t r a te 5 ...................................
N o t in la b o r f o r c e
.........................................................
8 ,2 7 3
1 0 ,6 7 8
1 1 ,3 1 5
1 1 ,5 7 6
1 1 ,9 0 6
1 2 ,0 3 6
1 1 ,4 4 6
1 1 ,4 9 0
7 .5
9 .5
1 0 .1
1 0 .3
1 0 .6
1 0 .7
1 0 .2
1 0 .2
6 1 ,4 6 0
6 2 ,0 6 7
6 1 ,8 3 2
6 2 ,1 2 9
6 2 ,0 1 6
6 2 ,0 7 0
6 2 ,8 0 6
6 2 ,9 5 2
1 1 ,3 8 1
'
1 1 ,3 2 8
1 1 ,1 9 2
1 1 ,1 4 6
1 0 ,5 9 0
1 0 ,6 9 9
1 0 ,4 2 3
1 0 .1
1 0 .1
1 0 .0
9 .8
9 .3
9 .4
9 .1
6 3 ,1 7 2
6 3 ,0 0 8
6 3 ,2 0 4
6 2 ,1 9 3
6 2 ,4 3 1
6 2 ,1 7 9
6 2 ,2 3 4
8 4 ,2 6 1
M e n , 1 6 y e a rs and over
...................................
8 2 ,0 2 3
8 3 ,0 5 2
8 3 ,2 3 1
8 3 ,3 2 3
8 3 ,4 0 2
8 3 ,5 8 1
8 3 ,6 5 2
8 3 ,7 2 0
8 3 ,7 8 9
8 3 ,8 5 6
8 3 ,9 3 1
8 4 ,0 1 4
8 4 ,0 9 9
8 4 ,1 7 3
......................................................................
6 3 ,4 8 6
6 3 ,9 7 9
6 4 ,3 0 1
6 4 ,3 0 0
6 4 ,4 1 4
6 4 ,3 8 4
6 3 ,9 1 6
6 3 ,9 9 6
6 3 ,9 5 7
6 4 ,2 0 7
6 4 ,2 7 6
6 4 ,8 1 6
6 4 ,8 6 4
6 4 ,8 1 4
7 6 .4
7 6 .3
7 6 .6
7 6 .6
7 7 .1
7 7 .1
7 7 .0
7 7 .1
5 7 ,2 3 4
5 7 ,3 0 0
5 7 ,4 7 6
5 7 ,6 5 6
5 8 ,4 6 4
5 8 ,6 2 5
5 8 ,5 7 0
5 8 ,8 2 6
N o n in s titu t io n a l p o p u l a t i o n ’ ’ 2
L a b o r fo rc e 2
.......................................
7 7 .4
7 7 .0
7 7 .3
7 7 .2
7 7 .2
7 7 .0
7 6 .4
T o ta l e m p lo y e d 2 .........................................................
5 8 ,9 0 9
5 7 .8 0 0
5 7 ,5 9 8
5 7 ,4 5 6
5 7 ,4 0 8
5 7 ,3 3 8
5 7 ,2 8 3
P a r tic ip a t io n r a te 3
E m p lo y m e n t- p o p u la t io n r a te 4
. . . .
7 1 .8
6 9 .6
6 9 .2
6 9 .0
5 8 .8
6 8 .6
6 8 .5
6 8 .4
6 8 .4
6 8 .5
6 8 .7
6 9 .6
6 9 .7
6 9 .6
6 4 ,9 4 4
6 9 .8
...............................
1 ,5 1 2
1 ,5 2 7
1 ,5 2 6
1 ,5 2 4
1 ,5 1 6
1 ,5 2 9
1 ,5 3 1
1 ,5 2 8
1 ,5 2 8
1 ,5 3 0
1 ,5 2 8
1 ,5 2 5
1 ,5 2 1
1 ,5 3 8
1 ,5 4 9
C iv ilia n e m p l o y e d ................................................
5 7 ,3 9 7
5 6 ,2 7 1
5 6 ,0 7 2
5 5 ,9 3 2
5 5 ,8 9 2
5 5 ,8 0 9
5 5 ,7 5 2
5 5 ,7 0 6
5 5 ,7 7 2
5 5 ,9 4 6
5 6 ,1 2 8
5 6 ,9 3 9
5 7 ,1 0 4
5 7 ,0 3 2
5 7 ,2 7 7
U n e m p l o y e d ..................................................................
4 ,5 7 7
6 ,1 7 9
6 ,7 0 3
6 ,8 4 4
7 ,0 0 6
7 ,0 4 6
6 ,6 3 3
6 ,7 6 2
6 ,6 5 7
6 ,7 3 1
6 ,6 2 0
6 ,3 5 1
6 ,2 3 8
6 ,2 4 4
6 ,1 1 8
U n e m p lo y m e n t r a te 5 ...................................
7 .2
9 .7
1 0 .4
1 0 .6
1 0 .9
1 0 .9
1 0 .4
1 0 .6
1 0 .4
1 0 .5
1 0 .3
9 .8
9 .6
9 .6
9 .4
R e s id e n t A r m e d F o r c e s ’
W o m e n , 1 6 y e a rs and over
8 9 ,7 5 1
9 0 ,8 8 7
9 1 ,1 2 9
9 1 ,2 2 6
9 1 ,3 1 6
9 1 ,2 8 3
9 1 ,3 6 9
9 1 ,4 4 9
9 1 ,5 3 2
9 1 ,6 0 9
9 1 ,6 9 1
9 1 ,7 7 9
9 1 ,8 7 1
9 1 ,9 4 9
9 2 ,0 3 6
4 6 ,8 2 9
4 7 ,8 9 4
4 8 ,2 2 7
4 8 ,1 2 0
4 8 ,2 8 8
4 8 ,4 1 0
4 8 ,2 9 9
4 8 ,2 2 0
4 8 ,1 9 1
4 8 ,2 5 1
4 8 ,1 4 2
4 8 ,7 8 4
4 8 ,6 7 5
4 9 ,1 3 0
4 9 ,1 1 9
.......................................
5 2 .2
5 2 .7
5 2 .9
5 2 .7
4 2 .9
4 3 .0
5 2 .9
5 2 .7
5 2 .6
5 2 .7
5 2 .5
5 3 .2
5 3 .0
5 3 .4
5 3 .4
T o ta l e m p lo y e d 2 .........................................................
4 3 ,1 3 3
4 3 ,3 9 5
4 3 ,6 1 5
4 3 ,3 8 8
4 3 ,3 8 8
4 3 ,4 2 0
4 3 ,4 8 6
4 3 ,4 9 3
3 ,4 6 7
4 3 ,6 5 3
4 3 ,5 6 9
4 3 ,9 9 0
4 4 ,3 2 4
4 4 ,6 7 5
4 4 ,8 1 4
N o n in s titu t io n a l p o p u l a t i o n ’ ’ 2
L a b o r fo rc e 2
...................................
.........................................................'
P a r tic ip a t io n r a te 3
E m p lo y m e n t- p o p u la t io n r a te 4
. .
. . . .
4 8 .1
4 7 .7
4 7 .9
4 7 .6
4 7 .5
4 7 .6
4 7 .6
4 7 .6
4 7 .5
4 7 .7
4 7 .5
4 7 .9
4 8 .2
4 8 .6
4 8 .7
...............................
133
139
144
144
144
136
136
136
136
141
141
143
143
144
146
C iv ilia n e m p l o y e d ................................................
4 3 ,0 0 0
4 3 ,2 5 6
4 3 ,4 7 1
4 3 ,2 4 4
4 3 ,2 4 4
4 3 ,2 8 4
4 3 ,3 5 0
4 3 ,3 5 7
4 3 ,3 3 1
4 3 ,5 1 2
4 3 ,4 2 8
4 3 ,8 4 7
4 4 ,1 8 1
4 4 ,5 3 1
4 4 ,6 6 8
U n e m p l o y e d ..................................................................
3 ,6 9 6
4 ,4 9 9
4 ,6 1 2
4 ,7 3 2
4 ,9 0 0
4 ,9 9 0
4 ,8 1 3
4 ,7 2 7
4 ,7 2 4
4 ,5 9 7
4 ,5 7 2
4 ,9 9 5
4 ,3 5 1
4 ,4 5 5
4 ,3 0 5
U n e m p lo y m e n t r a te 5 ...................................
7 .9
9 .4
9 .6
9 .8
1 0 .1
1 0 .3
1 0 .0
9 .8
9 .8
9 .5
9 .5
9 .8
8 .9
9 .1
8 .8
R e s id e n t A r m e d F o r c e s ’
’ T h e p o p u la tio n a n d A r m e d F o r c e s f ig u r e s a r e n o t a d ju s te d f o r s e a s o n a l v a r ia tio n .
4 T o ta l e m p lo y e d a s a p e r c e n t o f th e n o n i n s t it u t i o n a l p o p u la tio n .
2 In c lu d e s m e m b e r s o f t h e A r m e d F o r c e s s ta t io n e d in th e U n ite d S ta te s .
5 U n e m p lo y m e n t a s a p e r c e n t o f t h e la b o r f o r c e ( In c lu d in g t h e r e s id e n t A r m e d F o r c e s ) .
3 L a b o r f o r c e a s a p e r c e n t o f th e n o n in s t it u tio n a l p o p u la tio n .
84
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
3.
E m ploym ent status of the civilian population by sex, age, race, and H ispanic origin, seasonally adjusted
[ N u m b e r s in t h o u s a n d s ]
1981
1983
198 2
Annual averag e
1 982
Sept.
Nov.
Oct.
D ec.
Jan.
Feb.
M a r.
Apr.
May
June
S e p t.
A ug.
July
TOTAL
......................
1 7 0 ,1 3 0
1 7 2 ,2 7 1
1 7 2 ,6 9 0
1 7 2 ,8 8 1
1 7 3 ,0 5 8
1 7 3 ,1 9 9
1 7 3 ,3 5 4
1 7 3 ,3 0 5
1 7 3 ,6 5 6
1 7 3 ,7 9 4
1 7 3 ,9 5 3
1 7 4 ,1 2 5
1 7 4 ,3 0 6
1 7 4 ,4 4 0
1 7 4 ,6 0 2
C iv ilia n la b o r f o r c e .........................................................
1 0 8 ,6 7 0
1 1 0 ,2 0 4
1 1 0 ,8 5 8
1 1 0 ,7 5 2
1 1 1 ,0 4 2
1 1 1 ,1 2 9
1 1 0 ,5 4 8
1 1 0 ,5 5 3
1 1 0 ,4 8 4
1 1 0 ,7 8 6
1 1 0 ,7 4 9
1 1 1 ,9 3 2
1 1 1 ,8 7 5
1 1 2 ,2 6 1
1 1 2 ,3 6 8
6 3 .9
6 4 .0
6 4 .2
6 4 .1
6 4 .2
6 4 .2
63 8
6 3 .7
6 3 .6
6 3 .7
6 3 .7
6 4 .3
6 4 .2
6 4 .4
6 4 .4
1 0 0 ,3 9 7
9 9 ,5 2 6
9 9 ,5 4 3
9 9 ,1 7 6
9 9 ,1 3 6
9 9 ,0 9 3
9 9 ,1 0 3
9 9 ,0 6 3
9 9 ,1 0 3
9 9 ,4 5 8
9 9 ,5 5 7
1 0 0 ,7 8 6
1 0 1 ,2 8 5
1 0 1 ,5 6 3
1 0 1 ,9 4 5
C iv ilia n n o n in s t it u tio n a l p o p u l a t i o n 1
P a r tic ip a t io n r a t e ............................................
E m p lo y e d
......................................................................
5 9 .0
E m p lo y m e n t- p o p u la t io n r a t i o 2 . . . .
5 7 .8
57 6
5 7 .4
5 7 .3
5 7 .1
5 7 .2
5 7 .2
5 7 .1
5 7 .2
5 7 .2
5 7 .9
5 8 .1
5 8 .2
5 8 .4
3 3 ,6 8
3 ,4 0 1
3 ,3 6 3
3 ,4 1 3
3 ,4 6 6
3 ,4 1 1
3 ,4 1 2
3 ,3 9 3
3 ,3 7 5
3 ,3 7 1
3 ,3 6 7
3 ,5 2 2
3 ,5 2 7
3 ,4 8 9
3 ,2 9 0
..........................
9 7 ,0 3 0
9 6 ,1 2 5
9 6 ,1 8 0
9 5 ,7 6 3
9 5 ,6 7 0
9 5 ,6 8 2
9 5 ,6 9 1
9 5 ,6 7 0
9 5 ,7 2 9
9 6 ,0 8 8
9 6 ,1 9 0
9 7 ,2 6 4
9 7 ,7 5 8
9 8 ,0 7 4
9 8 ,6 5 5
U n e m p l o y e d ..................................................................
8 ,2 7 3
1 0 ,6 7 8
1 1 ,3 1 5
1 1 ,5 7 6
1 1 ,9 0 6
1 2 ,0 3 6
1 1 ,4 4 6
1 1 ,4 9 0
1 1 ,3 8 1
7 .6
9 .7
1 0 .2
1 0 .5
1 0 .7
1 0 .8
1 0 .4
1 0 .4
1 0 .3
1 0 .2
1 0 .1
1 0 .0
9 .5
9 .5
9 .3
6 2 ,0 1 6
6 2 ,0 7 0
6 2 ,8 0 6
6 2 ,9 5 2
6 3 ,1 7 2
6 3 ,0 0 8
6 3 ,2 0 4
6 2 ,1 9 3
6 2 ,4 3 1
6 2 ,1 7 9
6 2 ,2 3 4
N o n a g r ic u ltu r a l in d u s t r ie s
U n e m p lo y m e n t r a te
N o t in la b o r f o r c e
...................................
.........................................................
6 1 ,4 6 0
6 2 ,0 6 7
6 1 ,8 3 2
6 2 ,1 2 9
1 1 ,3 2 8
1 1 ,1 9 2
1 1 ,1 4 6
1 0 ,5 9 0
1 0 ,6 9 9
1 0 ,4 2 3
M e n , 2 0 y e a rs and o ver
......................
7 2 ,4 1 9
7 3 ,6 4 4
7 3 ,8 6 7
7 3 ,9 8 4
7 4 ,0 9 4
7 4 ,2 3 6
7 4 ,3 3 9
7 4 ,4 3 4
7 4 ,5 2 8
7 4 ,6 1 1
7 4 ,7 1 2
7 4 ,8 1 4
7 4 ,9 2 7
7 5 ,0 1 2
7 5 ,1 1 5
C iv ilia n la b o r f o r c e .........................................................
5 7 ,1 9 7
5 7 ,9 8 0
5 8 ,3 5 4
5 8 ,3 6 3
5 8 ,4 5 4
5 8 ,4 4 3
5 8 ,0 4 8
5 8 ,1 7 7
5 8 ,1 7 0
5 8 ,4 5 4
5 8 ,5 0 6
5 8 ,8 0 4
5 9 ,0 1 6
5 8 ,9 4 5
5 9 ,0 5 3
P a r tic ip a t io n r a t e ............................................
7 9 ,0
7 8 .7
79 0
7 8 .9
7 8 .9
7 8 .7
7 8 .1
7 8 .2
7 8 .1
7 8 .3
7 8 .3
7 8 .6
7 8 .8
7 8 .6
78 6
5 3 ,5 8 2
5 2 ,8 9 1
5 2 ,7 7 6
5 2 ,6 4 9
5 2 ,5 8 9
5 2 ,5 3 4
5 2 ,4 5 2
5 2 ,4 2 8
5 2 ,5 8 9
5 2 ,7 5 2
5 2 ,9 0 1
5 3 ,5 1 6
5 3 ,8 0 8
5 3 ,7 7 1
5 3 ,9 2 8
7 1 .2
7 1 .0
7 0 .8
7 0 .6
7 0 .4
7 0 .6
7 0 .7
7 0 .8
7 1 .5
7 1 .8
7 1 .7
7 1 .8
C iv ilia n n o n i n s t it u t i o n a l p o p u l a t i o n 1
E m p lo y e d
..................................................................
7 4 .0
7 1 .8
7 1 .4
2 ,3 8 4
2 ,4 2 2
2 ,4 3 6
2 ,4 4 4
2 ,4 3 4
.2 ,3 8 9
2 ,4 2 6
2 ,3 7 4
2 ,4 2 0
2 ,4 0 4
2 ,4 4 3
2 ,5 2 9
2 ,5 4 4
2 ,4 9 6
2 ,4 3 1
..........................
5 1 ,1 9 9
5 0 ,4 6 9
5 0 ,3 4 0
5 0 ,2 0 5
5 0 ,1 5 5
5 0 ,1 4 5
5 0 ,0 2 5
5 0 ,0 5 4
5 0 ,1 6 9
5 0 ,3 4 8
5 0 ,4 5 8
5 0 .9 8 7
5 1 ,2 6 4
5 1 ,2 7 5
5 1 ,4 9 7
U n e m p l o y e d ..................................................................
3 ,6 1 5
5 ,0 8 9
5 ,5 7 8
5 ,7 1 4
5 ,8 6 5
5 ,9 0 9
5 ,5 9 7
5 ,7 4 9
5 ,5 8 1
5 ,7 0 2
5 ,6 0 5
5 ,2 8 8
5 ,2 0 8
5 ,1 7 4
5 ,1 2 5
9 .6
9 .8
1 0 .0
1 0 .1
9 .6
9 .9
9 .6
9 .8
9 .6
9 .0
8 .8
8 .8
8 .7
E m p lo y m e n t- p o p u la t io n r a t i o 2 . . . .
A g r i c u l t u r e ..................................................................
N o n a g r ic u ltu r a l in d u s t r ie s
U n e m p lo y m e n t r a te
6 .3
...................................
8 .8
W o m e n , 2 0 y e a rs and over
......................
8 1 ,4 9 7
8 2 ,8 6 4
8 3 ,1 5 2
8 3 ,2 7 1
8 3 ,3 8 5
8 3 ,3 8 3
8 3 ,4 9 0
8 3 ,5 9 3
8 3 ,6 9 9
8 3 ,7 9 4
8 3 ,8 9 9
8 4 ,0 0 8
8 4 ,1 2 2
8 4 ,2 2 4
8 4 ,3 3 3
C iv ilia n la b o r f o r c e .........................................................
4 2 ,4 8 5
4 3 ,6 9 9
4 3 ,9 9 6
4 3 ,9 3 6
4 4 ,1 1 2
4 4 ,2 8 6
4 4 ,2 0 1
4 4 ,2 1 6
4 4 ,1 6 6
4 4 ,2 3 8
4 4 ,2 2 8
4 4 ,6 4 8
4 4 ,6 8 5
4 5 ,0 0 3
4 5 ,1 3 2
C iv ilia n n o n in s t it u tio n a l p o p u l a t i o n 1
5 2 .1
5 2 .7
5 2 .9
5 2 .8
5 2 .9
5 3 .1
5 2 .9
52 9
52 8
52 8
5 2 .7
5 3 .1
5 3 .1
5 3 .4
5 3 .5
3 9 ,5 9 0
4 0 ,0 8 6
4 0 ,2 8 6
4 0 ,1 1 2
4 0 ,1 2 3
4 0 ,2 1 5
4 0 ,2 3 8
4 0 ,2 9 1
4 0 ,2 7 7
4 0 ,5 0 9
4 0 ,4 8 4
4 0 ,7 8 9
4 1 ,1 6 4
4 1 ,3 9 4
4 1 ,6 1 4
4 8 .6
4 8 .4
4 8 .4
4 8 .2
4 8 .1
4 8 .2
4 8 .2
4 8 .2
4 8 .1
4 8 .3
4 8 .3
4 8 .6
4 8 .9
4 9 .1
4 9 .3
P a r tic ip a t io n r a t e ............................................
E m p lo y e d
..................................................................
E m p lo y m e n t- p o p u la t io n r a t i o 2 . . . .
A g r i c u l t u r e ..................................................................
604
601
588
578
590
628
625
657
647
622
597
636
607
630
574
..........................
3 8 ,9 8 6
3 9 ,4 8 5
3 9 ,6 9 8
3 9 ,5 3 4
3 9 ,5 3 3
3 9 ,5 8 7
3 9 ,6 1 3
3 9 ,6 3 4
3 9 ,6 3 0
3 9 ,8 8 6
3 9 ,8 8 7
4 0 ,1 5 3
4 0 ,5 5 7
4 0 ,7 6 4
4 1 ,0 4 0
3 ,9 8 9
4 ,0 7 1
3 ,9 6 3
3 ,9 2 5
3 ,8 8 9
3 ,7 2 9
3 ,7 4 4
3 ,8 5 9
3 ,5 2 1
3 ,6 0 9
3 ,5 1 8
N o n a g r ic u ltu r a l in d u s t r ie s
U n e m p l o y e d ..................................................................
2 ,8 9 5
3 ,6 1 3
3 ,7 1 0
3 ,8 2 4
...................................
6 .8
8 .3
8 .4
8 .7
9 .0
9 .2
9 .0
8 .9
8 .8
8 .4
8 .5
8 .6
7 .9
8 .0
7 .8
......................
1 6 ,2 1 4
1 5 ,7 6 3
1 5 ,6 7 1
1 5 ,6 2 5
1 5 ,5 7 9
1 5 ,5 8 0
1 5 ,5 2 5
1 5 ,4 7 8
1 5 ,4 2 9
1 5 ,3 8 9
1 5 ,3 4 2
1 5 ,3 0 3
1 5 ,2 5 7
1 5 ,2 0 4
1 5 ,1 5 4
C iv ilia n la b o r f o r c e .........................................................
8 ,9 8 8
8 ,5 2 6
8 ,5 0 8
8 ,4 5 3
8 ,4 7 6
8 ,4 0 0
8 ,2 9 9
8 ,1 6 0
8 ,1 4 8
8 ,0 9 4
8 ,0 1 5
8 ,4 8 0
8 ,1 7 3
8 ,3 1 3
8 ,1 8 4
U n e m p lo y m e n t r a te
Both s e x e s , 16 to 19 years
C iv ilia n n o n in s t it u tio n a l p o p u l a t i o n 1
5 5 .4
5 4 .1
5 4 .3
5 4 ,1
5 4 .4
5 3 .9
5 3 .5
5 2 .7
5 2 .8
5 2 .6
52 2
5 5 .4
5 3 .6
5 4 .7
5 4 .0
7 ,2 2 5
6 ,5 4 9
6 ,4 8 1
6 ,4 1 5
6 ,4 2 4
6 ,3 4 4
6 ,4 1 3
6 ,3 4 5
6 ,2 3 7
6 ,1 9 7
6 ,1 7 2
6 ,4 8 1
6 ,3 1 3
6 ,3 9 7
6 ,4 0 4
4 4 .6
4 1 .5
4 1 .4
4 1 .1
4 1 .2
4 0 .7
4 1 .3
4 1 .0
4 0 ,4
4 0 .3
4 0 .2
4 2 .4
4 1 .4
4 2 .1
4 2 .3
P a r tic ip a t io n r a t e ............................................
E m p lo y e d
..................................................................
E m p lo y m e n t- p o p u la t io n r a t i o 2 . . . .
380
378
394
361
362
308
344
327
357
376
362
285
..........................
6 ,8 4 5
6 ,1 7 1
6 ,1 4 2
6 ,0 2 4
5 ,9 8 2
5 ,9 5 0
6 ,0 5 2
5 ,9 8 3
5 ,9 2 9
5 ,8 5 3
5 ,8 4 5
6 ,1 2 4
5 ,9 3 7
6 ,0 3 5
6 ,1 1 9
U n e m p l o y e d ..................................................................
1 ,7 6 3
1 ,9 7 7
2 ,0 2 7
2 ,0 3 8
2 ,0 5 2
2 ,0 5 6
1 ,8 8 6
1 ,8 1 5
1 ,9 1 1
1 ,8 9 7
1 ,8 4 3
1 ,9 9 9
1 ,8 6 0
1 ,9 1 6
1 ,7 8 0
...................................
1 9 .6
2 3 .2
2 3 .8
2 4 .1
2 4 .2
2 4 .5
2 2 .7
2 2 .2
2 3 .5
2 3 .4
23 0
2 3 .6
22 8
2 3 .0
2 1 .8
A g r i c u l t u r e ..................................................................
N o n a g r ic u ltu r a l I n d u s tr ie s
U n e m p lo y m e n t ra te
339
391
442
W h ite
......................
1 4 7 ,9 0 8
1 4 9 ,4 4 1
1 4 9 ,6 5 2
1 4 9 ,8 3 8
1 4 9 ,8 8 7
1 5 0 ,0 5 6
1 5 0 ,1 2 9
1 5 0 ,1 8 7
1 5 0 ,3 8 2
1 5 0 ,5 1 8
1 5 0 ,6 7 1
1 5 0 ,8 1 0
1 5 0 ,9 5 9
1 5 1 ,0 0 3
1 5 1 ,0 2 1
C iv ilia n la b o r f o r c e .........................................................
9 5 ,0 5 2
9 6 ,1 4 3
9 6 ,6 4 0
9 6 ,4 5 3
9 6 ,7 1 9
9 6 ,8 6 4
9 6 ,1 7 6
9 5 ,9 8 7
9 5 ,9 9 6
9 6 ,2 8 7
9 6 ,3 6 2
9 7 ,2 5 0
9 7 ,3 4 1
9 7 ,6 0 2
9 7 ,6 0 5
P a r tic ip a t io n r a t e ............................................
6 4 .3
6 4 .3
6 4 .6
6 4 .4
6 4 .5
6 4 .6
6 4 .1
6 3 .9
6 3 .8
6 4 .0
6 4 .0
6 4 .5
6 4 .5
6 4 .6
6 4 .6
8 8 ,7 0 9
8 7 ,9 0 3
8 7 ,8 7 2
9 8 ,4 7 7
8 7 ,4 3 5
8 7 ,4 4 3
8 7 ,4 6 6
8 7 ,1 9 4
8 7 ,3 2 4
8 7 ,7 0 9
8 7 ,7 7 7
8 8 ,8 8 0
8 9 ,3 8 2
8 9 ,5 7 3
8 9 ,7 1 9
C iv ilia n n o n i n s t it u t i o n a l p o p u l a t i o n 1
E m p lo y e d
......................................................................
6 0 .0
5 8 .8
5 8 .7
5 8 .4
5 8 .3
5 8 .3
5 8 .3
5 8 .1
5 8 .1
5 8 .3
5 8 .3
5 8 .9
59 2
5 9 .3
5 9 .4
6 ,3 4 3
8 ,2 4 1
8 ,7 6 8
8 ,9 7 6
9 ,2 8 4
9 ,4 2 1
8 .7 1 1
8 ,7 9 3
8 ,6 7 2
8 ,5 7 7
8 ,5 8 5
8 ,3 7 0
7 ,9 5 9
8 ,0 2 9
7 ,8 8 5
6 .7
8 .6
9 .1
9 .3
9 .6
9 .7
9 .1
9 .2
9 .0
8 .9
8 .9
8 .6
8 .2
8 .2
8 .1
E m p lo y m e n t- p o p u la t io n r a t i o 2 . . . .
U n e m p l o y e d ..................................................................
U n e m p lo y m e n t ra te
...................................
Black
C iv ilia n n o n i n s t it u t i o n a l p o p u l a t i o n 1
......................
1 8 ,2 1 9
1 8 ,5 8 4
1 8 ,6 5 9
1 8 ,6 9 2
1 8 ,7 2 3
1 8 ,7 4 0
1 8 ,7 6 8
1 8 ,7 9 6
1 8 ,8 2 3
1 8 ,8 5 1
1 8 ,8 8 0
1 8 ,9 1 1
1 8 ,9 4 2
1 8 ,9 6 6
1 8 ,9 9 4
C iv ilia n la b o r f o r c e .........................................................
1 1 ,0 8 6
1 1 ,3 3 1
1 1 ,4 4 3
1 1 ,3 9 8
1 1 ,4 7 5
1 1 ,5 2 2
1 1 ,5 4 2
1 1 ,5 4 8
1 1 ,5 5 4
1 1 ,6 3 1
1 1 ,6 7 2
1 1 ,7 8 3
1 1 ,7 6 4
1 1 ,7 4 5
1 1 ,7 2 9
P a r tic ip a t io n r a t e ............................................
E m p lo y e d
......................................................................
6 0 .8
6 1 .0
6 1 .3
6 1 .0
6 1 .3
6 1 .5
6 1 .5
6 1 .4
6 1 .4
6 1 .7
6 1 .8
6 2 .3
6 2 .1
6 1 .9
6 1 .7
9 ,3 5 5
9 ,1 8 9
9 ,1 7 2
9 ,1 0 2
9 ,1 5 9
9 ,1 2 7
9 ,1 4 2
9 ,2 7 6
9 ,2 5 3
9 ,2 0 9
9 ,2 7 0
9 ,3 5 2
9 ,4 6 9
9 ,3 9 8
9 ,5 0 5
5 1 .3
4 9 .4
4 9 .2
4 8 .7
4 8 .9
4 8 .7
4 8 .7
4 9 .4
4 9 .2
4 8 .8
4 9 .1
4 9 .5
5 0 .0
4 9 .6
5 0 .0
1 ,7 3 1
2 ,1 4 2
2 ,2 7 1
2 ,2 9 6
2 ,3 1 6
2 ,3 9 5
2 ,4 0 0
2 ,2 7 1
2 ,3 0 2
2 ,4 2 3
2 ,4 0 2
2 ,4 3 2
2 ,2 9 5
2 ,3 4 7
2 .2 2 4
2 0 .8
2 0 .8
1 9 .7
1 9 .9
20 8
20 6
2 0 .6
1 9 .5
2 0 .0
1 9 .0
E m p lo y m e n t- p o p u la t io n r a t i o 2 . . . .
U n e m p l o y e d ..................................................................
U n e m p lo y m e n t r a te
...................................
1 5 .6
1 8 .9
1 9 .8
2 0 .1
202
H is p a n ic o rigin
C iv ilia n n o n in s t it u t i o n a l p o p u l a t i o n 1
......................
9 ,3 1 0
9 ,4 0 0
9 ,4 6 4
9 ,4 7 4
9 ,3 5 5
9 ,3 0 1
9 ,3 2 8
9 ,3 6 8
9 ,5 5 1
9 ,6 6 5
9 ,7 4 7
9 ,7 3 8
9 ,6 4 0
9 ,6 9 0
9 ,7 0 0
C iv ilia n la b o r f o r c e .........................................................
5 ,9 7 2
5 ,9 8 3
5 ,9 6 1
5 ,9 7 3
5 ,9 2 3
5 ,8 9 8
5 ,9 8 1
5 ,9 9 2
6 ,0 7 4
6 ,2 0 6
6 ,1 6 7
6 ,2 5 3
6 ,0 7 9
6 ,1 2 4
6 ,2 0 0
P a r tic ip a t io n r a t e ............................................
6 4 .1
6 3 .6
63 0
6 3 .0
6 3 .3
6 3 .4
6 4 .1
6 4 .0
63 6
6 4 .2
6 3 .3
64 2
6 3 .1
6 3 .2
6 3 .9
5 ,3 4 8
5 ,1 5 8
5 ,0 9 7
5 ,0 7 5
5 ,0 1 2
4 ,9 9 8
5 ,0 5 3
5 ,0 4 2
5 ,0 8 8
5 ,3 0 4
5 ,3 1 8
5 ,3 7 9
5 ,3 3 1
5 ,3 3 3
5 ,3 9 0
5 7 .4
5 4 .9
5 3 .9
5 3 .6
5 3 .6
5 3 .7
5 4 .2
5 3 .8
5 3 .3
5 4 .9
5 4 .6
5 5 .2
5 5 .3
5 5 .0
55 6
E m p lo y e d
......................................................................
E m p lo y m e n t- p o p u la t io n r a t i o 2 . . . .
U n e m p l o y e d ..................................................................
624
825
864
898
911
900
929
950
986
902
849
874
748
790
811
...................................
1 0 .4
1 3 .8
1 4 .5
1 5 .0
1 5 .4
1 5 .3
1 5 .5
1 5 .8
1 6 .2
1 4 .5
1 3 .8
1 4 .0
1 2 .3
1 2 .9
1 3 .1
U n e m p lo y m e n t r a te
1 T h e p o p u la tio n f ig u r e s a r e n o t s e a s o n a lly a d ju s t e d .
f o r t h e “ o t h e r r a c e s ” g r o u p s a r e n o t p r e s e n te d a n d H is p a n ic s a r e in c lu d e d in b o t h th e w h ite a n d b la c k
C i v i l i a n e m p lo y m e n t a s a p e r c e n t o f th e c iv ilia n n o n ln s t it u tio n a l p o p u la tio n .
N O TE :
D e ta il f o r t h e a b o v e r a c e a n d H is p a m c - o r ig in g r o u p s w i ll n o t s u m
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
p o p u la tio n g r o u p s .
t o t o ta ls b e c a u s e d a ta
85
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • Current Labor Statistics: Household Data
4.
S elected em ploym ent indicators, seasonally adjusted
[ N u m b e r s in t h o u s a n d s ]
1983
1982
Annual averag e
S e le c te d c a te g o ries
1981
198 2
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D ec.
1 0 0 ,3 9 7
9 9 ,5 2 6
9 9 ,5 4 3
9 9 ,1 7 6
9 9 ,1 3 6
9 9 ,0 9 3
Jan.
Feb.
M a r.
Apr.
May
June
July
A ug.
S e pt.
9 9 ,4 5 8
9 9 ,5 5 7
1 0 0 ,7 8 6
1 0 1 ,2 8 5
1 0 1 ,5 6 3
1 0 1 ,9 4 5
C H ARAC TERISTIC
C iv ilia n e m p lo y e d , 1 6 y e a r s a n d o v e r
...............................
9 9 ,1 0 3
9 9 ,0 6 3
9 9 ,1 0 3
M e n .....................................................................................................
5 7 ,3 9 7
5 6 ,2 7 1
5 6 ,0 7 3
5 5 ,9 3 2
5 5 ,8 9 2
5 5 ,8 0 9
5 5 ,7 5 2
5 5 ,7 0 6
5 5 ,7 7 2
5 5 ,9 4 6
5 6 ,1 2 8
5 6 ,9 3 9
5 7 ,1 0 4
5 7 ,0 3 2
5 7 ,2 7 7
W o m e n ............................................................................................
4 3 ,0 0 0
4 3 .2 5 6
4 3 ,4 7 1
4 3 ,2 4 4
4 3 ,2 4 4
4 3 ,2 8 4
4 3 ,3 5 0
4 3 ,3 5 7
4 3 ,3 3 1
4 3 ,5 1 2
4 3 ,4 2 8
4 3 ,8 4 7
4 4 ,1 8 1
4 4 ,5 3 1
4 4 ,6 6 8
M a r r ie d m e n , s p o u s e p r e s e n t .......................................
3 8 ,8 8 2
3 8 ,0 7 4
3 7 ,9 9 8
3 7 ,8 5 2
3 7 ,6 4 1
3 7 ,5 0 7
3 7 ,4 5 0
3 7 ,4 2 8
3 4 ,4 5 2
3 7 ,5 2 3
3 7 ,5 6 0
3 7 ,9 2 5
3 8 ,2 9 3
3 8 ,3 0 8
3 8 ,2 5 3
M a r r ie d w o m e n , s p o u s e p r e s e n t ...............................
2 3 ,9 1 5
2 4 ,0 5 3
2 4 ,1 5 9
2 4 ,0 8 1
2 3 ,9 8 5
2 4 ,1 5 5
2 4 ,2 0 5
2 4 ,0 7 0
2 4 ,1 7 1
2 4 ,3 7 1
2 4 ,2 2 9
2 4 ,3 3 5
2 4 ,6 4 0
2 4 ,9 7 2
2 4 ,9 9 6
4 ,9 4 4
4 ,9 4 2
5 ,0 1 6
5 ,0 8 8
5 ,1 0 4
5 ,1 2 4
W o m e n w h o m a in ta in f a m ilie s
...................................
4 .9 9 8
5 ,0 9 9
5 ,1 1 8
5 ,1 0 7
5 ,0 2 5
4 ,9 8 5
5 ,0 3 8
5 ,0 5 0
5 ,0 9 7
M A JO R IN D U S T R Y AN D CLASS
OF W O RK ER
A g r ic u ltu r e :
W a g e a n d s a la r y w o r k e r s ................................................
1 ,4 6 4
1 ,5 0 5
1 ,5 3 7
1 ,5 7 6
1 ,5 8 4
1 ,5 4 7
1 ,6 3 7
1 .6 2 4
1 ,5 1 5
1 ,5 6 0
1 ,5 9 5
1 ,6 3 6
1 ,6 6 3
1 ,6 6 4
1 ,5 8 5
S e lf- e m p lo y e d w o r k e r s
1 ,6 3 8
1 ,6 3 6
1 ,5 6 9
1 ,6 2 1
1 ,6 2 8
1 ,6 2 7
1 ,5 8 7
1 ,5 4 1
1 ,5 8 5
1 ,6 0 7
1 ,5 5 8
1 ,6 0 8
1 ,5 8 3
1 ,5 6 6
1 ,4 7 3
229
241
224
231
223
260
208
229
263
259
245
237
8 8 ,0 6 4
8 7 ,9 3 6
8 7 ,9 7 6
8 7 ,8 1 3
8 8 ,3 9 5
8 9 ,3 5 4
8 9 ,7 6 5
8 9 ,9 9 5
9 0 ,8 1 3
....................................................
U n p a id f a m il y w o r k e r s .........................................................
266
261
254
N o n a g r ic u ltu r a l in d u s t r ie s :
W a g e a n d s a la r y w o r k e r s ................................................
8 9 ,5 4 3
8 8 ,4 6 2
8 8 ,5 6 2
8 7 ,7 9 4
8 7 ,9 1 2
8 8 ,1 8 7
G o v e r n m e n t ......................................................................
1 5 ,6 8 9
1 5 ,5 6 2
1 5 ,6 8 1
1 5 ,4 3 6
1 5 ,5 1 4
1 5 ,4 7 7
1 5 ,3 8 6
1 5 ,5 0 1
1 5 ,4 5 2
1 5 ,5 1 8
1 5 ,5 2 3
1 5 ,4 9 8
1 5 ,6 1 5
1 5 ,6 9 7
1 5 ,5 4 9
P r iv a te i n d u s t r i e s .........................................................
7 3 ,8 5 3
7 2 ,9 4 5
7 2 ,8 8 1
7 2 ,6 2 8
7 2 ,4 2 2
7 2 ,4 9 9
7 2 ,4 2 7
7 2 ,2 9 3
7 2 ,4 5 9
7 2 ,6 6 8
7 2 ,8 7 2
7 3 ,8 5 6
7 4 ,1 5 0
7 4 ,2 9 9
7 5 ,2 6 5
.......................................
1 ,2 0 8
1 ,2 0 7
1 ,2 2 0
1 ,2 1 6
1 ,2 2 1
1 ,1 6 3
1 ,1 6 2
1 ,2 3 2
1 ,2 3 5
1 ,2 0 5
1 ,2 2 8
1 ,3 1 7
1 ,2 8 6
1 ,2 9 0
1 ,2 9 5
O th e r ..........................................................................
7 2 ,6 4 5
7 1 ,7 3 8
7 1 ,6 6 1
7 1 ,4 1 2
7 1 ,2 0 1
7 1 ,3 3 6
7 1 ,2 6 5
7 1 ,0 6 1
7 1 ,2 2 5
7 1 ,4 6 3
7 1 ,6 4 4
7 2 ,5 3 9
7 2 ,8 6 4
7 3 ,0 0 9
7 3 ,9 6 9
....................................................
7 ,0 9 7
7 ,2 6 2
7 ,4 2 2
7 ,3 3 2
7 ,3 4 9
7 ,3 3 5
7 ,4 6 5
7 ,3 8 5
7 ,4 5 3
7 ,5 2 8
7 ,4 0 8
7 ,4 9 3
7 ,5 9 8
7 ,6 5 8
7 ,6 6 0
U n p a id f a m ily w o r k e r s .........................................................
390
401
378
403
382
383
380
353
342
353
335
345
320
376
376
P r iv a te h o u s e h o ld s
S e lf- e m p lo y e d w o r k e r s
PER SO N S AT W O R K 1
9 1 ,3 7 7
9 0 ,5 5 2
9 0 ,8 8 4
9 0 ,2 3 2
9 0 ,2 3 8
9 0 ,2 1 9
9 0 ,9 0 3
9 0 ,2 0 7
9 0 ,2 7 1
9 2 ,2 6 7
9 0 ,9 4 1
9 0 ,5 3 9
9 2 ,2 5 3
9 1 ,9 8 6
9 3 ,7 3 7
.............................................................
7 4 ,3 3 9
7 2 ,2 4 5
7 1 ,7 2 3
7 1 ,3 9 4
7 1 ,4 4 2
7 1 ,4 9 9
7 1 ,7 8 6
7 1 ,5 6 4
7 1 ,8 7 8
7 3 ,5 9 4
7 2 ,9 7 5
7 2 ,9 7 8
7 4 ,0 0 4
7 3 ,4 9 5
7 4 ,8 8 3
P a r t t im e f o r e c o n o m ic r e a s o n s ...................................
N o n a g r ic u ltu r a l i n d u s t r i e s .............................................................
F u ll- t im e s c h e d u le s
4 ,4 9 9
5 ,8 5 2
6 ,4 9 5
6 ,9 0 3
6 ,4 1 1
6 ,4 2 5
6 ,8 4 5
6 .4 8 1
6 ,2 0 2
6 ,0 8 2
5 ,9 2 8
5 ,7 2 9
5 ,6 3 6
5 ,7 8 9
............................................
1 ,7 3 8
2 ,1 6 9
2 ,5 1 9
2 ,3 8 1
2 ,2 2 8
2 ,1 5 3
2 ,2 0 0
2 ,0 9 7
1 ,9 2 7
1 ,8 7 1
1 ,6 8 5
1 ,7 0 2
1 ,8 0 9
1 ,7 1 8
1 ,7 9 8
U s u a lly w o r k p a r t t i m e ............................................
2 ,7 6 1
3 ,6 8 3
3 ,9 7 6
4 ,0 2 2
4 ,1 8 3
4 ,2 7 2
4 ,6 4 5
4 ,3 8 4
4 ,2 7 5
4 ,2 1 1
4 ,2 4 3
4 ,0 2 7
3 ,8 2 6
4 ,0 7 1
4 ,3 0 9
P a r t t im e f o r n o n e c o n o m ic r e a s o n s ..........................
1 2 ,5 3 9
1 2 ,4 5 5
1 2 ,6 6 6
1 2 ,4 3 5
1 2 ,3 8 5
1 2 ,2 9 5
1 2 ,2 7 1
1 2 ,1 6 2
1 2 ,1 9 1
1 2 ,5 9 2
1 2 ,0 3 8
1 1 ,8 3 3
1 2 ,6 1 4
1 2 ,7 0 1
1 2 ,7 4 8
U s u a lly w o r k f u ll t im e
1 E x c lu d e s p e r s o n s " w i t h a jo b b u t n o t a t w o r k " d u r in g t h e s u r v e y p e r io d f o r s u c h r e a s o n s a s
v a c a tio n , illn e s s , o r in d u s t r ia l d is p u t e s .
86
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
6 ,1 0 6
5.
S elected unem ploym ent indicators, seasonally adjusted
[ U n e m p l o y m e n t r a te s ]
1983
198 2
Annual a verag e
S e le c te d c a te g o ries
Sept.
Nov.
Oct.
D ec.
Jan.
Feb.
M a r.
A pr.
M ay
June
July
A ug.
Sept.
1981
1982
7 .6
9 .7
1 0 .2
1 0 .4
1 0 .7
1 0 .8
1 0 .4
1 0 .4
1 0 .3
1 0 .2
1 0 .1
1 0 .0
9 .5
9 .5
9 .3
2 4 .1
2 4 .2
2 4 .5
22 7
2 2 .2
2 3 .5
2 3 .4
2 3 .0
2 3 .6
2 2 .8
23 0
2 1 .8
CH ARAC TERISTIC
T o t a l, a ll c iv ilia n w o r k e r s ..............................................................
B o th s e x e s , 1 6 t o 1 9 y e a r s ............................................
1 9 .6
2 3 .2
2 3 .8
M e n , 2 0 y e a r s a n d o v e r .....................................................
6 .3
8 .8
9 .6
9 .8
1 0 .0
1 0 .1
9 .6
9 .9
9 .6
9 .8
9 .6
9 .0
8 .8
8 .8
8 .7
W o m e n , 2 0 y e a r s a n d o v e r ............................................
6 .8
8 .3
8 .4
8 .7
9 .0
9 .2
9 .0
8 .9
8 .8
8 .4
8 .5
8 .6
7 .9
8 .0
7 .8
9 .1
9 .2
9 .0
8 .9
6 .7
8 .6
9 .1
9 .3
9 .6
9 .7
8 .9
8 .6
...............................
1 7 .3
2 0 .4
2 0 .7
2 1 .5
2 1 .2
2 1 .6
2 0 .0
1 9 .7
2 1 .4
2 0 .4
1 9 .8
2 0 .0
1 9 .5
1 9 .8
1 7 .9
...................................
1 7 .9
2 1 .7
2 2 .2
2 3 .0
22 6
2 2 .8
2 1 .2
2 1 .1
22 9
2 1 .7
2 0 .2
1 9 .8
2 0 .4
2 1 .1
1 8 .7
1 7 .1
W h it e , t o t a l ....................................................................................
B o th s e x e s , 1 6 t o 1 9 y e a r s
M e n , 1 6 to 19 y e a rs
8 .2
8 .2
8 .1
...........................
1 6 .6
1 9 .0
1 9 .1
1 9 .9
1 9 .8
2 0 .4
1 8 .7
1 8 .2
1 9 .7
1 9 .0
1 9 .4
2 0 .2
1 8 .5
1 8 .4
M e n , 2 0 y e a r s a n d o v e r ........................................
5 .6
7 .8
8 .6
8 .8
9 .1
9 .2
8 .4
8 .7
8 .5
8 .6
8 .6
7 .8
7 .7
7 .7
7 .8
W o m e n , 2 0 y e a rs a n d o v e r
5 .9
7 .3
7 .5
7 .6
8 .0
8 .1
7 .8
7 .7
7 .4
7 .2
7 .3
7 .4
6 .7
6 .7
6 .6
2 0 .0
W o m e n , 1 6 to 1 9 y e a rs
...............................
B la c k , t o t a l ...................................................................................
1 5 .6
1 8 .9
1 9 .8
2 0 .8
2 0 .8
1 9 .7
1 9 .9
2 0 .6
2 0 .6
1 9 .5
4 9 .8
4 9 .5
4 5 .7
4 5 .4
4 3 .5
4 9 .0
4 8 .2
5 0 .6
4 8 .1
5 3 .0
5 2 .0
5 3 .0
5 2 .5
4 5 .9
4 5 .3
4 4 .5
4 8 .0
5 3 .1
5 1 .1
4 7 .6
5 6 .8
5 4 .8
4 5 .9
4 6 .2
4 6 .2
4 5 .5
4 5 .4
4 2 .3
5 0 .0
4 2 .3
5 0 .0
4 8 .8
4 8 .9
4 8 .7
1 9 .6
1 9 .2 ,
2 0 .5
1 9 .7
1 8 .7
1 8 .8
2 0 .3
1 9 .8
1 9 .2
1 8 .7
1 8 .4
1 6 .9
1 7 .0
1 7 .1
1 7 .0
1 6 .0
1 6 .4
1 6 .1
1 3 .8
1 4 .0
1 2 .3
1 2 .9
1 3 .1
4 1 .4
4 8 .0
4 8 .6
4 7 .7
4 0 .7
4 8 .9
5 1 .0
4 9 .2
...........................
4 2 .2
4 7 .1
4 5 .9
M e n , 2 0 y e a r s a n d o v e r ........................................
1 3 .5
1 7 .8
9 .2
M e n , 16 to 19 y e a rs
W o m e n , 1 6 to 1 9 y e a rs
2 0 .2
2 .1
...............................
...................................
B o th s e x e s , 1 6 t o 1 9 y e a r s
.
2 0 .8
...............................
1 3 .4
1 5 .4
1 5 .7
1 6 .2
1 6 .5
1 6 .5
1 8 .2
1 7 .0
1 7 .7
H is p a n ic o r ig in , t o t a l ..............................................................
1 0 .4
1 3 .8
1 4 .5
1 5 .0
1 5 .4
1 5 .3
1 5 .5
1 5 .8
1 6 .2
1 4 .5
M a r r ie d m e n , s p o u s e p r e s e n t ........................................
4 .3
6 .5
7 .2
7 .5
7 .6
7 .8
7 .1
7 .2
7 .1
7 .1
W o m e n , 2 0 y e a rs a n d o v e r
M a r r ie d w o m e n , s p o u s e p r e s e n t
W o m e n w h o m a in ta in f a m il ie s
7 .0
6 .6
6 .1
6 .3
1 9 .0
6 .1
...............................
6 .0
7 .4
7 .6
7 .9
8 .2
8 .2
7 .8
7 .6
7 .5
7 .3
7 .5
7 .8
7 .0
6 .9
6 .8
...................................
1 0 .4
1 1 .7
1 2 .4
1 1 .3
1 2 .5
1 3 .2
1 3 .2
1 3 .0
1 3 .5
1 3 .2
1 2 .9
1 2 .8
1 1 .6
1 1 .6
1 2 .2
F u ll- t im e w o r k e r s ......................................................................
7 .3
9 .6
1 0 .2
1 0 .5
1 0 .6
1 0 .8
1 0 .3
1 0 .4
1 0 .3
1 0 .2
9 .9
9 .7
9 .4
9 .4
9 .2
P a r t- tim e w o r k e r s
9 .4
1 0 .5
1 0 .6
1 0 .3
1 1 .3
1 1 .1
1 0 .6
1 0 .1
1 0 .5
1 0 .6
1 1 .0
1 2 .1
1 0 .2
1 0 .1
1 0 .0
2 .1
3 .2
3 .5
3 .8
4 .1
4 .3
4 .2
4 .2
4 .2
3 .9
4 1
4 1
3 9
3 6
3 4
8 .5
1 1 .0
1 1 .7
1 2 .0
1 2 .4
1 2 .7
1 1 .7
1 2 .0
1 1 .8
1 1 .4
1 1 .5
1 0 .8
1 0 .4
1 0 .6
1 0 .6
1 1 .0
1 1 .0
1 0 .8
1 0 .8
1 0 .5
1 0 .0
..................................................................
L a b o r f o r c e t im e l o s t 1 .........................................................
IN D U S T R Y
N o n a g r ic u ltu r a l p r iv a te w a g e a n d s a la r y w o r k e r s
M in in g
. .
............................................................................................
C o n s t r u c t io n
...............................................................................
M a n u fa c t u r in g
...........................................................................
D u r a b le g o o d s
..............................................................
N o n d u r a b le g o o d s
............................................
7 .7
1 0 .1
1 1 .4
1 1 .6
1 0 .8
1 0 .5
9 .8
9 .4
6 .0
1 3 .4
1 8 .5
1 7 .9
1 8 .1
1 8 .1
1 7 .1
1 8 .4
1 8 .6
2 0 .3
2 2 .7
1 8 .2
1 6 .6
1 4 .8
1 7 .2
1 5 .6
2 0 .0
2 2 .3
2 2 .3
2 1 .8
2 2 .0
2 0 .0
1 9 .7
2 0 .3
2 0 .3
2 0 .4
1 8 .1
1 8 .0
1 8 .1
1 8 .2
9 .6
8 .3
1 2 .3
1 4 .1
1 4 .1
1 4 .8
1 4 .8
1 2 .8
1 2 .4
1 2 .3
1 1 .5
1 0 .5
1 1 .2
1 0 .2
8 .2
1 3 .3
1 6 .0
1 6 .0
1 7 .0
1 7 .1
1 4 .7
1 4 .7
1 4 .1
1 3 .5
1 3 .5
1 2 .2
1 1 .2
1 1 .6
1 0 .9
8 .4
1 0 .8
1 1 .2
1 1 .2
1 1 .4
1 1 .4
1 0 .5
1 1 .4
1 1 .1
1 0 .8
1 0 .5
1 0 .4
9 .2
1 3 .0
1 3 .3
9 .6
1 0 .6
T r a n s p o r t a tio n a n d p u b lic u t i l i t i e s ...............................
5 .2
6 .8
7 .9
7 .9
8 .3
8 .0
7 .8
8 .0
7 .8
7 .7
7 .0
7 .8
7 .0
8 .0
7 .4
W h o le s a le a n d r e ta il t r a d e ................................................
8 .1
1 0 .0
1 0 .4
1 0 .4
1 0 .6
1 1 .0
1 0 .8
1 0 .9
1 1 .2
1 0 .4
1 0 .1
1 0 .2
9 .7
9 .8
9 .6
F in a n c e a n d s e r v ic e I n d u s tr ie s
G o v e rn m e n t w o rk e rs
...................................
.......................................................................
A g r ic u l t u r a l w a g e a n d s a la r y w o r k e r s
...............................
5 .9
6 .9
7 .1
7 .1
7 .7
7 .9
7 .6
7 .3
7 .2
7 .3
7 .5
7 .2
7 .3
7 .2
7 .1
4 .7
4 .9
4 .9
4 .9
5 .1
5 .1
5 .7
6 .0
5 .9
6 .1
5 .8
5 .1
5 .5
5 .0
4 .9
1 2 .1
1 4 .7
1 3 .3
1 3 .3
1 5 .6
1 6 .5
1 6 .0
1 6 .4
1 6 .3
1 7 .2
1 7 .0
1 7 .0
1 4 .2
1 4 .6
1 6 .1
'A g g r e g a t e h o u r s lo s t b y t h e u n e m p lo y e d , a n d p e r s o n s o n p a r t t im e f o r e c o n o m ic r e a s o n s a s a p e r c e n t o f p o t e n tia lly
a v a ila b le la b o r f o r c e h o u r s .
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87
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • Current Labor Statistics: Household Data
6.
U nem ploym ent rates by sex and age, seasonally adjusted
[Civilian w o r k e r s ]
______________________________________________________________ _____________
Sex and age
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
M a r.
Apr.
M ay
June
1 0 .3
1 0 .2
Sept.
A ug.
July
9 .3
.............................................................
7 .6
9 .7
1 0 .2
1 0 .5
1 0 .7
1 0 .8
1 0 .4
1 0 .4
1 0 .1
1 0 .0
9 .5
9 .5
1 4 .9
1 7 .8
1 8 .3
1 8 .7
1 9 .0
1 8 .9
1 8 .3
1 8 .3
1 8 .1
1 8 .1
1 8 .1
1 7 .6
1 6 .8
1 7 .4
1 6 .5
2 2 .2
2 3 .5
2 3 .4
2 3 .0
2 3 .6
2 2 .8
2 3 .0
2 1 .8
1 6 t o 1 9 y e a r s ..........................................................................
1 9 .6
2 3 .2
2 3 .8
2 4 .1
2 4 .2
2 4 .5
2 2 .7
2 1 .4
2 4 .9
2 6 .5
2 6 .1
2 6 .3
2 7 .4
2 4 .1
2 3 .4
2 5 .1
2 6 .3
2 6 .2
2 5 .8
2 5 .3
2 4 .7
2 3 .9
1 6 t o 1 7 y e a r s ......................................................................
2 2 .1
2 2 .0
2 2 .9
2 2 .8
2 2 .7
2 1 .7
2 1 .5
2 2 .7
2 1 .8
2 1 .1
2 2 .4
2 1 .1
2 2 .0
20 4
1 8 t o 1 9 y e a r s ......................................................................
1 8 .4
1 2 .3
1 4 .5
1 3 .8
2 0 t o 2 4 y e a r s ..........................................................................
1 3 .8
1 4 .9
1 6 .3
1 5 .8
1 5 .3
1 6 .0
1 6 .1
1 6 .3
1 5 .4
1 5 .4
1 5 .6
1 4 .4
8 .2
8 .1
8 .0
7 .9
7 .9
7 .4
7 .3
7 .3
......................................................................
5 .4
7 .4
7 .9
8 .1
8 .3
8 .6
8 .1
5 .8
7 .9
8 .6
8 .7
8 .9
9 .1
8 .7
8 .7
8 .7
8 .5
8 .5
8 .3
7 .8
7 .8
7 .7
2 5 t o 5 4 y e a r s ......................................................................
5 5 y e a r s a n d o v e r .............................................................
3 .6
5 .0
5 .2
5 .5
5 .7
5 .8
5 .4
5 .4
5 .4
5 .6
5 .3
5 .6
5 .3
5 .1
5 .1
1 0 .8
1 0 .7
1 0 .7
1 0 .6
1 0 .0
9 .8
9 .9
9 .7
2 5 y e a rs a n d o v e r
M e n , 1 6 y e a r s a n d o v e r .....................................................
7 .4
9 .9
1 0 .7
1 0 .9
1 1 .1
1 1 .2
1 0 .6
1 6 t o 2 4 y e a r s ......................................................................
1 5 .7
1 9 .1
2 0 .0
2 0 .2
2 0 .6
2 0 .5
1 9 .7
1 9 .8 '
1 9 .5
1 9 .4
1 9 .7
1 8 .4
1 8 .4
1 8 .8
1 7 .6
.............................................................
2 0 .1
2 4 .4
2 5 .4
25 6
2 5 .7
2 5 .8
2 3 .9
2 3 .6
2 5 .3
2 4 .4
2 3 .9
2 3 .7
2 3 .8
2 4 .7
2 2 .9
1 6 t o 1 7 y e a r s .........................................................
2 2 .0
2 6 .4
2 9 .0
2 8 .8
2 8 .2
2 9 .0
2 4 .4
2 3 .6
2 6 .0
2 7 .0
2 7 .4
2 5 .4
2 7 .9
2 6 .2
2 3 .5
2 3 .5
2 3 .4
2 4 .8
2 2 .8
2 2 .0
2 2 .9
2 1 .2
2 3 .7
2 2 .5
1 6 to 1 9 y e a rs
1 8 .8
2 3 .1
2 3 .0
2 3 .4
2 4 .1
2 4 .0
.............................................................
1 3 .2
1 6 .4
1 7 .3
1 7 .4
1 8 .0
17 8
1 7 .6
1 7 .8
1 6 .6
1 7 .0
1 7 .6
1 5 .7
1 5 .7
1 5 .9
1 5 .0
2 5 y e a r s a n d o v e r .............................................................
5 .1
7 .5
8 .2
8 .5
8 .6
8 .8
8 .2
8 .5
8 .4
8 .5
8 .2
7 .8
7 .6
7 .5
7 .6
8 .4
8 .1
8 .0
8 .1
5 .4
5 .4
5 .3
5 .6
1 8 t o 1 9 y e a r s .........................................................
2 0 to 2 4 y e a rs
2 5 to 5 4 y e a rs
.........................................................
5 5 y e a rs a n d o v e r
................................................
5 .5
3 .5
8 .0
5 .1
9 .0
5 .5
9 .1
9 .2
9 .4
8 .7
9 .1
9 .0
8 .9
8 .8
6 .0
6 .2
6 .3
5 .8
5 .7
5 .8
6 .3
5 .8
W o m e n , 1 6 y e a r s a n d o v e r ............................................
7 .9
9 .4
9 .6
9 .9
1 0 .2
1 0 .3
1 0 .0
9 .8
9 .8
9 .6
9 .5
9 .9
9 .0
9 .1
8 .8
1 6 t o 2 4 y e a r s ......................................................................
1 4 .0
1 6 .2
1 6 .3
1 7 .0
1 7 .2
1 7 .1
1 6 .7
16 6
1 6 .6
1 6 .5
1 6 .2
1 6 .6
1 4 .9
15 9
1 5 .2
.............................................................
1 9 .0
2 1 .9
2 2 .1
2 2 .5
2 2 .6
2 3 .0
2 1 .5
2 0 .7
2 1 .5
2 2 .4
2 1 .9
2 3 .4
2 1 .6
2 1 .2
2 0 .5
1 6 t o 1 7 y e a r s .........................................................
2 0 .7
2 3 .2
2 3 .8
2 2 .9
2 4 .2
2 5 .6
2 3 .7
2 3 .2
2 4 .2
2 5 .5
2 4 .7
2 6 .2
2 2 .3
2 3 .1
2 4 .3
1 8 t o 1 9 y e a r s .........................................................
1 7 .9
2 1 .0
2 0 .9
2 2 .3
2 1 .4
2 1 .3
1 9 .8
1 9 .3
2 0 .5
2 0 .7
2 0 .2
2 1 .9
2 1 .0
2 0 .3
1 7 .9
1 4 .5
1 4 .1
1 3 .5
13 3
1 2 .9
1 1 .5
1 3 .0
1 2 .5
1 6 to 1 9 y e a rs
.............................................................
1 1 .2
1 3 .2
1 3 .1
1 4 .0
1 4 .4
1 4 .0
1 4 .2
2 5 y e a r s a n d o v e r .................. ........................................
5 .9
7 .3
7 .5
7 .6
7 .9
8 .2
7 .9
7 .7
7 .7
7 .4
7 .6
7 .9
7 .2
7 .0
6 .8
6 .3
7 .7
8 .0
8 2
8 .5
8 .8
8 .7
8 .2
8 .3
7 .9
8 .2
8 .2
7 ,6
7 .5
7 .3
4 .9
4 .7
4 .5
4 .6
5 .8
5 .3
4 .7
4 .4
Jan.
Feb.
M a r.
Apr.
M ay
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
6 ,0 0 2
2 0 to 2 4 y e a rs
2 5 to 5 4 y e a rs
.........................................................
5 5 y e a rs a n d o v e r
7.
1982
...............................................................................
T o t a l, 1 6 y e a r s a n d o v e r
16 to 2 4 y e a rs
1981
198 3
1 982
Annual averag e
................................................
3 .8
4 .8
4 .8
4 .9
4 .8
5 .1
4 .8
U nem ployed persons by reason for unem ploym ent, seasonally adjusted
[Numbers in thousands]
J o b lo s e r s
1 982
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D ec.
4 ,2 5 7
6 ,2 5 8
6 ,9 7 9
7 ,3 2 5
7 ,3 6 9
7 ,2 9 5
6 ,7 0 4
6 ,8 0 9
6 ,8 2 3
6 ,7 5 0
6 ,7 6 6
6 ,5 1 3
6 ,1 9 3
6 ,2 0 2
.........................................................
1 ,4 3 0
2 ,1 2 7
2 ,6 2 5
2 ,5 1 9
2 ,5 3 1
2 ,4 6 8
2 ,1 3 1
2 ,0 2 4
1 ,9 4 5
1 ,9 4 8
1 ,9 4 3
1 ,8 2 2
1 ,7 1 9
1 ,6 5 8
1 ,5 9 1
.......................................
2 ,8 3 7
4 ,1 4 1
4 ,3 5 4
4 ,8 0 6
4 ,8 3 8
4 ,8 2 7
4 ,5 7 3
4 ,7 8 4
4 ,8 7 8
4 ,8 0 3
4 ,8 2 3
4 ,6 9 1
4 ,4 7 4
4 ,5 4 5
4 ,4 1 1
738
767
866
..................................................................
O n la y o f f
1981
1983
1982
A nnual a verag e
R eason for u n e m p lo ym en t
O th e r jo b lo s e r s
J o b l e a v e r s ..................................................................
923
840
786
803
794
826
839
848
901
815
801
782
R e e n t r a n t s ..................................................................
2,102
2 ,3 8 4
2 ,4 3 7
2 ,3 2 2
2 ,5 4 6
2 ,5 2 9
2 ,6 2 3
2 ,4 9 1
2 ,4 2 6
2 ,4 8 8
2 ,3 6 5
2 ,4 2 5
2 ,4 2 9
2 ,5 2 4
2 ,3 5 1
N e w e n t r a n t s .............................................................
981
1 ,1 8 5
1 ,3 0 3
1 ,2 9 6
1 ,2 4 4
1 ,2 8 8
1 ,1 7 4
1 ,1 6 1
1 ,1 5 5
1 ,2 4 5
1 ,2 5 1
1 ,4 4 0
1 ,2 2 5
1 ,2 1 4
1 ,2 4 7
PER CENT D IS TR IB U T IO N
T o ta l u n e m p l o y e d ................................................
100.0
100.0
1 0 0 .0
1 0 0 .0
1 0 0 .0
1 0 0 .0
1 0 0 .0
1 0 0 .0
1 0 0 .0
1 0 0 .0
1 0 0 .0
100 0
1 0 0 .0
1 0 0 .0
1 0 0 .0
J o b l o s e r s ..................................................................
5 1 ,6
5 8 .7
6 0 .7
6 2 .4
6 1 .5
6 0 .6
5 9 .1
6 0 .2
6 0 .4
5 9 .7
6 0 .5
5 8 .4
5 8 .5
57 9
5 7 .3
1 7 .9
1 7 .2
1 7 .2
1 7 .4
1 6 .3
1 6 .2
1 5 .5
1 5 .2
4 2 .3
4 3 .1
4 2 .5
4 3 .1
4 2 .0
4 2 .3
4 2 .4
4 2 .1
O n la y o ff
.........................................................
O t h e r jo b lo s e r s
.......................................
1 7 .3
1 9 .9
2 2 .8
2 1 .4
2 1 .2
2 0 .5
1 8 .8
3 4 .3
3 8 .8
3 7 .8
4 0 .9
4 0 .5
4 0 .1
4 0 .3
J o b l e a v e r s ..................................................................
11.2
7 .9
6 .8
6 .8
6 .6
6 .9
7 .4
7 .5
8 .0
7 .2
7 .2
7 .0
7 .0
7 .2
8 .3
R e e n t r a n t s ..................................................................
2 5 .4
2 2 .3
2 1 .2
1 9 .8
2 1 .3
2 1 .8
2 3 .1
2 2 .C
2 1 .5
2 2 .0
2 1 .1
2 1 .7
2 2 .9
2 3 .6
2 2 .5
1 1 .9
11.1
1 0 .4
1 0 .3
1 0 .2
1 1 .0
1 1 .2
12 9
1 1 .6
1 1 .3
1 1 .9
5 .8
5 .5
5 .5
1 1 .3
1 1 .0
1 0 .4
1 0 .7
..................................................................
6 .3
6 .6
6 .6
6 .6
6 .1
6 .2
6 .2
6 .1
6 .1
J o b l e a v e r s ..................................................................
.7
.7
.7
,7
.8
.8
.8
.7
.7
.7
.7
.7
.8
2 .2
2 .2
2 .1
N e w e n t r a n t s .............................................................
PER CENT OF
C IV IL IA N LABOR FORCE
J o b lo s e r s
R e e n t r a n t s .................................................................
1 .9
2.2
N e w e n t r a n t s .............................................................
.9
1.1
8.
5 .3
2 .2
2 .1
2 .3
2 .4
2 .4
2 .3
2 .2
2 .2
2 .1
2 .2
1 .2
1 .2
1 .1
1 .2
1 .1
1 .1
1 .0
1 .1
1 .1
1 .3
1 .1
1 .1
1 .1
D uration of unem ploym ent, seasonally adjusted
[ N u m b e r s in t h o u s a n d s ]
1 983
198 2
Annu al averag e
W e e k s of u n e m p lo ym en t
1981
1982
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
M a r.
Apr.
M ay
June
July
A ug.
S e p t.
L e s s t h a n 5 w e e k s ...............................................................................
3 ,4 4 9
3 ,8 8 3
4 ,0 0 4
3 ,9 3 0
3 ,9 6 3
4 ,0 1 9
3 ,5 3 6
3 ,7 3 1
3 ,4 4 0
3 ,5 4 7
3 ,5 1 9
3 ,6 5 5
3 ,4 9 8
3 ,6 6 0
3 ,7 7 4
5 t o 1 4 w e e k s ........................................................................................
2 ,5 3 9
3 ,3 1 1
3 ,5 4 9
3 ,5 1 1
3 ,5 4 9
3 ,4 6 0
3 ,3 2 8
3 ,1 0 6
3 ,1 4 0
3 ,1 5 4
2 ,9 7 9
2 ,9 1 5
2 ,7 9 4
3 ,0 2 6
2 ,8 1 0
..........................................................................
2 ,2 8 5
3 ,4 8 5
3 ,8 5 6
4 ,1 6 7
4 ,5 2 4
4 ,7 3 2
4 ,6 3 4
4 ,6 1 8
4 ,6 1 5
4 ,3 5 6
4 ,5 1 7
4 ,5 8 9
4 ,4 1 7
4 ,0 2 0
3 ,8 5 0
1 5 t o 2 6 w e e k s ..........................................................................
1 ,1 2 2
1 ,7 0 8
1 ,8 3 0
1 ,9 5 1
2 ,1 9 1
2 ,1 2 5
1 ,9 2 8
1 ,9 2 8
1 ,8 7 5
1 ,6 6 2
1 ,7 3 1
1 ,6 3 8
1 ,8 3 0
1 ,5 7 3
1 ,3 4 4
2 7 w e e k s a n d o v e r ..................................................................
1 ,1 6 2
1 ,7 7 6
2 ,0 2 6
2 ,2 1 6
2 ,3 3 3 .
2 ,6 0 7
2 ,7 0 6
2 ,6 8 9
2 ,7 4 0
2 ,6 9 4
2 ,7 8 6
2 ,9 5 1
2 ,5 8 7
2 ,4 4 7
2 ,5 0 6
M e a n d u r a tio n in w e e k s ..................................................................
1 3 .7
1 5 .6
1 6 .6
1 7 .1
1 7 .3
1 8 .0
1 9 .4
1 9 .0
1 9 .1
1 9 .0
2 0 .4
2 2 .0
2 1 .7
1 9 .9
2 0 .2
M e d ia n d u r a tio n in w e e k s .............................................................
6 .9
8 .7
9 .4
9 .6
10 0
1 0 .1
1 1 .5
9 .6
1 0 .3
1 1 .3
1 2 .3
1 1 .8
9 .9
8 .9
9 .1
15 w eeks and over
88
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EMPLOYMENT, HOURS, AND EARNINGS DATA FROM ESTABLISHMENT SURVEYS
E
,
,
in this section are com
piled from payroll records reported monthly on a voluntary basis
to the Bureau of Labor Statistics and its cooperating State agencies
by 189,000 establishments representing all industries except ag
riculture. In most industries, the sampling probabilities are based
on the size of the establishment; most large establishments are
therefore in the sample. (An establishment is not necessarily a
firm; it may be a branch plant, for example, or warehouse.) Selfemployed persons and others not on a regular civilian payroll are
outside the scope of the survey because they are excluded from
establishment records. This largely accounts for the difference in
employment figures between the household and establishment sur
veys.
m
p l o
y m
e n
t
h o
u r s
a n
d
e a r n in g
s
d
a t a
Definitions
Employed persons are all persons who received pay (including holiday
and sick pay) for any part of the payroll period including the 12th of the
month. Persons holding more than one job (about 5 percent of all persons
in the labor force) are counted in each establishment which reports them.
Production workers in manufacturing include blue-collar worker su
pervisors and all nonsupervisory workers closely associated with produc
tion operations. Those workers mentioned in tables 12-17 include production
workers in manufacturing and mining; construction workers in construc
tion; and nonsupervisory workers in transportation and public utilities; in
wholesale and retail trade; in finance, insurance, and real estate; and in
services industries. These groups account for about four-fifths of the total
employment on private nonagricultural payrolls.
Earnings are the payments production or nonsupervisory workers re
ceive during the survey period, including premium pay for overtime or
late-shift work but excluding irregular bonuses and other special payments.
Real earnings are earnings adjusted to reflect the effects of changes in
consumer prices. The deflator for this series is derived from the Consumer
Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). The
Hourly Earnings Index is calculated from average hourly earnings data
adjusted to exclude the effects of two types of changes that are unrelated
to underlying wage-rate developments; fluctuations in overtime premiums
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
in manufacturing (the only sector for which overtime data are available)
and the effects of changes and seasonal factors in the proportion o f workers
in high-wage and low-wage industries.
Hours represent the average weekly hours of production or nonsuper
visory workers for which pay was received and are different from standard
or scheduled hours. Overtime hours represent the portion of gross average
weekly hours which were in excess of regular hours and for which overtime
premiums were paid.
The Diffusion Index, introduced in table 17 of the May issue, represents
the percent of 186 nonagricultural industries in which employment was
rising over the indicated period. One-half of the industries with unchanged
employment are counted as rising. In line with Bureau practice, data for
the 3-, 6-, and 9-month spans are seasonally adjusted, while that for the
12-month span is unadjusted. The diffusion index is useful for measuring
the dispersion of economic gains or losses and is also an economic indi
cator.
Notes on the data
Establishment data collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics are pe
riodically adjusted to com prehensive counts o f em ploym ent (called
“ benchmarks” ). The latest complete adjustment was made with the release
of May 1983 data, published in the July 1983 issue of the Review. Con
sequently, data published in the Review prior to that issue are not necessarily
comparable to current data. Unadjusted data have been revised back to
April 1981; seasonally adjusted data have been revised back to January
1978. Unadjusted data from April 1982 forward, and seasonally adjusted
data from January 1979 forward are subject to revision in future bench
marks. Earlier comparable unadjusted and seasonally adjusted data are
published in a Supplement to Employment and Earnings (unadjusted data
from April 1977 through February 1983 and seasonally adjusted data from
January 1974 through February 1983) and in Employment and Earnings,
United States, 1909-78, BLS Bulletin 1312-11 (for prior periods).
A comprehensive discussion of the differences between household and
establishment data on employment appears in Gloria P. Green, “ Com
paring employment estimates from household and payroll surveys,” Monthly
Labor Review, December 1969, pp. 9 -2 0 . See also BLS Handbook of
Methods, Bulletin 2134-1 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1982).
89
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • Current Labor Statistics: Establishment Data
9.
E m ploym ent by industry, selected years, 1 9 5 0 -8 2
[Nonagricultural payroll data, in thousands]
G oods-producing
S e rv ic e -p ro d u c in g
T ran sp o r
Year
Total
P riva te
sector
T otal
M in in g
C onstruc
M a n u fa c
tion
turing
W h o le s a le and re ta il trad e
tation
Total
W h o le
and
Total
public
sale
trade
u tilitie s
G o vern m en t
F in an ce,
insu ran ce,
R e ta il
and real
trad e
estate
S ervices
To tal
Fe d e ra l
S ta te and
local
1950
.................................................
4 5 ,1 9 7
3 9 ,1 7 0
1 8 ,5 0 6
901
2 ,3 6 4
1 5 ,2 4 1
2 6 ,6 9 1
4 ,0 3 4
9 ,3 8 6
2 ,6 3 5
6 ,7 5 1
1 ,8 8 8
5 ,3 5 7
6 ,0 2 6
1 ,9 2 8
4 ,0 9 8
1955
.................................................
5 0 ,6 4 1
4 3 ,7 2 7
2 0 ,5 1 3
792
2 ,8 3 9
1 6 ,8 8 2
3 0 ,1 2 8
4 ,1 4 1
1 0 ,5 3 5
2 ,9 2 6
7 ,6 1 0
2 ,2 9 8
6 ,2 4 0
6 ,9 1 4
2 ,1 8 7
4 ,7 2 7
............................................
5 4 ,1 8 9
4 5 ,8 3 6
2 0 ,4 3 4
712
2 ,9 2 6
1 6 ,7 9 6
3 3 ,7 5 5
4 ,0 0 4
1 1 ,3 9 1
3 ,1 4 3
8 ,2 4 8
2 ,6 2 9
7 ,3 7 8
8 ,3 5 3
2 ,2 7 0
6 ,0 8 3
1964
.................................................
5 8 ,2 8 3
4 8 ,6 8 6
2 1 ,0 0 5
634
3 ,0 9 7
1 7 ,2 7 4
3 7 ,2 7 8
3 ,9 5 1
1 2 ,1 6 0
3 ,3 3 7
8 ,8 2 3
2 ,9 1 1
8 ,6 6 0
9 ,5 9 6
2 ,3 4 8
7 ,2 4 8
1965
................................................
6 0 ,7 6 5
5 0 ,5 8 9
2 1 ,9 2 6
632
3 ,2 3 2
1 8 ,0 6 2
3 8 ,8 3 9
4 ,0 3 6
1 2 ,7 1 6
3 ,4 6 6
9 ,2 5 0
2 ,9 7 7
9 ,0 3 6
1 0 ,0 7 4
2 ,3 7 8
7 ,6 9 6
I9 6 0 1
1966
................................................
6 3 ,9 0 1
5 3 ,1 1 6
2 3 ,1 5 8
627
3 ,3 1 7
1 9 ,2 1 4
4 0 ,7 4 3
4 ,1 5 8
1 3 ,2 4 5
3 ,5 9 7
9 ,6 4 8
1967
................................................
6 5 ,8 0 3
5 4 ,4 1 3
2 3 ,3 0 8
613
3 ,2 4 8
1 9 ,4 4 7
4 2 ,4 9 5
4 ,2 6 8
1 3 ,6 0 6
3 ,6 8 9
9 ,9 1 7
3 ,1 8 5
1 0 ,0 4 5
1 1 ,3 9 1
2 ,7 1 9
8 ,6 7 2
1968
................................................
6 7 ,8 9 7
5 6 ,0 5 8
2 3 ,7 3 7
606
3 ,3 5 0
1 9 ,7 8 1
4 4 ,1 6 0
4 ,3 1 8
1 4 ,0 9 9
3 ,7 7 9
1 0 ,3 2 0
3 ,3 3 7
1 0 ,5 6 7
1 1 ,8 3 9
2 ,7 3 7
9 ,1 0 2
3 ,0 5 8
9 ,4 9 8
1 0 ,7 8 4
2 ,5 6 4
8 ,2 2 0
1969
................................................
7 0 ,3 8 4
5 8 ,1 8 9
2 4 ,3 6 1
619
3 ,5 7 5
2 0 ,1 6 7
4 6 ,0 2 3
4 ,4 4 2
1 4 ,7 0 6
3 ,9 0 7
1 0 ,7 9 8
3 ,5 1 2
1 1 ,1 6 9
1 2 ,1 9 5
2 ,7 5 8
9 ,4 3 7
1970
................................................
7 0 ,8 8 0
5 8 ,3 2 5
2 3 ,5 7 8
623
3 ,5 8 8
1 9 ,3 6 7
4 7 ,3 0 2
4 ,5 1 5
1 5 ,0 4 0
3 ,9 9 3
1 1 ,0 4 7
3 ,6 4 5
1 1 ,5 4 8
1 2 ,5 5 4
2 ,7 3 1
9 ,8 2 3
5 8 ,3 3 1
2 2 ,9 3 5
1 9 7 1 ................................................
7 1 ,2 1 4
609
3 ,7 0 4
1 8 ,6 2 3
4 8 ,2 7 8
4 ,4 7 6
1 5 ,3 5 2
4 ,0 0 1
1 1 ,3 5 1
3 ,7 7 2
1 1 ,7 9 7
1 2 ,8 8 1
2 ,6 9 6
1 0 ,1 8 5
1972
................................................
7 3 ,6 7 5
6 0 ,3 4 1
2 3 ,6 6 8
628
3 ,8 8 9
1 9 ,1 5 1
5 0 ,0 0 7
4 ,5 4 1
1 5 ,9 4 9
4 ,1 1 3
1 1 ,8 3 6
3 ,9 0 8
1 2 ,2 7 6
1 3 ,3 3 4
2 ,6 8 4
1 0 ,6 4 9
1973
................................................
7 6 ,7 9 0
6 3 ,0 5 8
2 4 ,8 9 3
642
4 ,0 9 7
2 0 ,1 5 4
5 1 ,8 9 7
4 ,6 5 6
1 6 ,6 0 7
4 ,2 7 7
1 2 ,3 2 9
4 ,0 4 5
1 2 ,8 5 7
1 3 ,7 3 2
2 ,6 6 3
1974
................................................
7 8 ,2 6 5
6 4 ,0 9 5
2 4 ,7 9 4
697
4 ,0 2 0
2 0 ,0 7 7
5 3 ,4 7 1
4 ,7 2 5
1 6 ,9 8 7
4 ,4 3 3
1 2 ,5 5 4
4 ,1 4 8
1 3 ,4 4 1
1 4 ,1 7 0
2 ,7 2 4
1 1 ,4 4 6
1975
................................................
7 6 ,9 4 5
6 2 ,2 5 9
2 2 ,6 0 0
752
3 ,5 2 5
1 8 ,3 2 3
5 4 ,3 4 5
4 ,5 4 2
1 7 ,0 6 0
4 ,4 1 5
1 2 ,6 4 5
4 ,1 6 5
1 3 ,8 9 2
1 4 ,6 8 6
2 ,7 4 8
1 1 ,9 3 7
2 ,7 3 3
1 2 ,1 3 8
1 1 ,0 6 8
1976
................................................
7 9 ,3 8 2
6 4 ,5 1 1
2 3 ,3 5 2
779
3 ,5 7 6
1 8 ,9 9 7
5 6 ,0 3 0
4 ,5 8 2
1 7 ,7 5 5
4 ,5 4 6
1 3 ,2 0 9
4 ,2 7 1
1 4 ,5 5 1
1 4 ,8 7 1
1977
................................................
8 2 ,4 7 1
6 7 ,3 4 4
2 4 ,3 4 6
813
3 ,8 5 1
1 9 ,5 8 2
5 8 ,1 2 5
4 ,7 1 3
1 8 ,5 1 6
4 ,7 0 8
1 3 ,8 0 8
4 ,4 6 7
1 5 ,3 0 3
1 5 ,1 2 7
2 ,7 2 7
1 2 ,3 9 9
1978
................................................
8 6 ,6 9 7
7 1 ,0 2 6
2 5 ,5 8 5
851
4 ,2 2 9
2 0 ,5 0 5
6 1 ,1 1 3
4 ,9 2 3
1 9 ,5 4 2
4 ,9 6 9
1 4 ,5 7 3
4 ,7 2 4
1 6 ,2 5 2
1 5 ,6 7 2
2 ,7 5 3
1 2 ,9 1 9
1979
................................................
8 9 ,8 2 3
7 3 ,8 7 6
2 6 ,4 6 1
958
4 ,4 6 3
2 1 ,0 4 0
6 3 ,3 6 3
5 ,1 3 6
2 0 ,1 9 2
5 ,2 0 4
1 4 ,9 8 9
4 ,9 7 5
1 7 ,1 1 2
1 5 ,9 4 7
2 ,7 7 3
1 3 ,1 4 7
1980
................................................
9 0 ,4 0 6
7 4 ,1 6 6
2 5 ,6 5 8
1 ,0 2 7
4 ,3 4 6
2 0 ,2 8 5
6 4 ,7 4 8
5 ,1 4 6
2 0 ,3 1 0
5 ,2 7 5
1 5 ,0 3 5
5 ,1 8 0
1 7 ,8 9 0
1 6 ,2 4 1
2 ,8 6 6
1 3 ,3 7 5
1 9 8 1 ................................................
9 1 ,1 5 6
7 5 ,1 2 6
2 5 ,4 9 7
1 ,1 3 9
4 ,1 8 8
2 0 ,1 7 0
6 5 ,6 5 9
5 ,1 6 5
2 0 ,5 4 7
5 ,3 5 8
1 5 ,1 8 9
5 ,2 9 8
1 8 ,6 1 9
1 6 ,0 3 1
2 ,7 7 2
1 3 ,2 5 9
1982
8 9 ,5 9 6
7 3 ,7 9 3
2 3 ,9 0 7
1 ,1 4 3
3 ,9 1 1
1 8 ,8 5 3
6 5 ,6 8 9
5 ,0 8 1
2 0 ,4 0 1
5 ,2 8 0
1 5 ,1 2 2
5 ,3 4 0
1 9 ,0 6 4
1 5 ,8 0 3
2 ,7 3 9
1 3 ,0 6 4
................................................
1 D a ta in c lu d e A la s k a a n d H a w a ii b e g in n in g in 1 9 5 9 ,
10.
E m ploym ent by State
[Nonagricultural payroll data, in thousands]
S tate
A l a b a m a ......................
August 1 982
July 198 3
August 1983P
1 ,3 1 2 .6
1 ,3 1 9 .2
1 ,3 1 2 .4
S tate
2 7 1 .5
2 6 7 .9
5 9 8 .3
5 9 4 .6
5 9 5 .5
4 0 8 .1
4 1 7 .8
4 1 9 .4
4 0 1 .5
4 0 0 .7
4 0 1 ,7
3 , 1 2 6 .8
3 , 1 3 4 .5
3 , 1 2 0 .7
4 7 3 .6
4 8 2 .7
4 8 2 .0
. .
7 .2 4 2 .4
7 , 2 0 1 .1
7 . 1 6 0 .5
N o r th C a r o lin a
2 .3 0 1 .5
2 ,3 2 0 .9
2 . 3 3 3 .6
2 3 0 .6
2 3 1 .4
1 ,0 0 2 .5
1 , 0 1 8 .1
1 ,0 0 9 .8
A rk a n s a s
..................
7 1 5 .2
7 2 1 .9
7 2 2 .5
C a lif o r n ia
..................
9 ,7 4 8 .9
9 ,8 4 6 .9
9 ,8 0 0 .3
N e w J e rs e y
C o lo r a d o
..................
1 . 3 0 6 .4
1 ,3 3 2 .9
1 ,3 2 7 .5
N e w M e x ic o .
. . . .
1 .4 0 7 .4
1 ,4 1 9 .8
1 ,4 0 7 .0
N ew Y o rk
2 6 1 .8
2 6 5 .6
2 6 4 .3
N o r th D a k o ta
D e la w a r e
..................
D i s t r ic t o f C o lu m b ia
F l o r i d a ..........................
G e o r g ia
6 0 9 .3
6 1 1 .1
5 9 9 .8
3 .6 7 9 .4
3 ,8 1 0 .7
3 ,7 8 3 .2
A ugust 1983P
N e b ra s k a
220.2
......................
C o n n e c t ic u t
Ju ly 1 9 8 3
M o n ta n a . . . .
A l a s k a ...........................
A r iz o n a
August 1 9 8 2
. . .
N evada
. . . .
N e w H a m p s h ir e
. .
O h i o ..................
2 6 6 .2
2 5 1 .9
2 5 4 .2
2 5 2 .5
4 ,1 1 6 .7
4 ,0 9 2 .8
4 , 0 8 5 .9
......................
2 ,2 0 6 .5
2 .2 3 6 .7
2 ,2 4 6 .9
H a w a i i ..........................
4 0 3 .9
4 0 1 .8
4 0 0 .2
O re g o n
Id a h o
9 5 7 .5
9 4 6 .1
3 0 7 .6
9 4 8 .9
3 1 3 .9
3 1 3 .9
P e n n s y lv a n ia
4 .5 3 4 .9
4 ,4 7 3 .9
4 , 5 9 2 .1
4 ,4 5 7 .9
4 ,5 3 5 .9
4 .5 1 6 .0
R h o d e Is la n d
......................
3 9 2 .7
3 8 8 .3
1 ,9 9 7 .9
3 9 2 .5
1 .9 9 2 .7
1 . 9 8 8 .1
S o u th C a r o lin a
1 ,1 4 6 .4
1 , 1 6 6 .1
1 ,1 6 5 .3
I o w a ...............................
1 .0 1 3 .0
9 9 8 .7
9 9 0 .0
S o u t h D a k o ta
2 3 0 .9
2 3 5 .0
2 3 4 .4
Tennessee . .
1 ,6 8 1 .6
1 ,6 7 1 .5
1 , 6 7 9 .1
Texas
...........................
I l l i n o i s ...........................
In d ia n a
Kansas
O k la h o m a
. .
. . .
1 .2 3 0 .8
1 ,2 0 1 .3
1 ,1 9 4 .1
......................
8 9 8 .5
902 5
8 9 6 .7
K e n tu c k y
..................
1 ,1 5 6 .8
1 , 1 5 0 .2
1 ,1 5 3 .9
L o u is ia n a
..................
6 , 2 4 8 .1
6 , 1 5 8 .1
1 . 6 0 1 .1
6 , 1 0 9 .9
1 ,5 8 3 .5
1 ,5 7 7 .0
U t a h ..................
M a i n e ...........................
5 5 8 .4
5 5 8 .9
4 2 4 .5
5 5 8 .2
4 1 8 .0
4 2 8 .0
V e rm o n t . . .
2 0 3 .8
2 0 3 .7
2 0 4 .4
1 .6 5 8 .5
1 .6 8 7 .5
1 .6 7 5 .5
V ir g in ia
2 ,1 3 4 .2
2 , 1 6 2 .6
2 ,1 5 2 .8
1 ,5 5 8 .9
1 ,5 7 6 .8
1 ,5 6 4 .3
6 1 3 .2
5 9 0 .8
5 9 0 .4
M a r y la n d
..................
M a s s a c h u s e t ts
M ic h ig a n
M i n n e s o ta
M i s s is s ip p i
. . . .
. . .
. .
2 ,6 0 6 .0
2 .5 9 5 .5
2 .5 8 5 .6
W a s h in g t o n
..................
3 ,1 5 3 .7
3 , 1 8 4 .1
3 .1 6 3 .6
W e s t V ir g in ia
1 .7 0 4 .6
1 .7 0 3 .5
1 ,7 0 8 .3
W is c o n s in
. .
1 ,8 7 3 .0
7 8 1 .1
1 ,8 5 5 .3
7 8 3 .0
1 ,8 4 9 .6
7 7 6 .8
W y o m in g
. .
2 1 8 .2
2 1 4 .1
1 .9 1 7 .6
1 ,9 0 3 .9
2 1 3 .3
1 , 9 0 5 .1
3 6 .7
3 6 .2
3 5 .6
..................
. . . .
M i s s o u r i ......................
.
V ir g in Is la n d s
1 D a ta n o t a v a ila b le .
90
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
p = p r e lim in a r y .
11.
E m ploym ent by industry division and m ajor m anufacturing group, seasonally adjusted
[ N o n a g r i c u l t u r a l p a y r o l l d a t a , in t h o u s a n d s ]
198 2
Annual a verag e
1983
Industry d iv is io n and group
TO TAL
PR IVA TE SECTOR
G O O D S -P R O D U C IN G
1981
1 982
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D ec.
Jan.
Feb.
M a r.
Apr.
M ay
June
July
A u g .F
S e p t.F
9 1 ,1 5 6
8 9 ,5 9 6
8 9 ,2 3 5
8 8 ,9 3 8
8 8 ,7 8 5
8 8 ,6 6 5
8 8 ,8 8 5
8 8 ,7 4 6
8 8 ,8 1 4
8 9 ,1 0 1
8 9 ,4 2 1
8 9 ,8 4 4
9 0 ,1 5 2
8 9 ,7 3 5
9 0 ,4 6 8
7 5 ,1 2 6
7 3 ,7 9 3
7 3 ,4 5 1
7 3 ,1 5 8
7 3 ,0 1 3
7 2 ,9 0 7
7 3 ,1 3 2
7 3 ,0 0 4
7 3 ,0 9 0
7 3 ,3 7 7
7 3 ,6 7 7
7 4 ,1 2 3
7 4 ,4 7 2
7 4 ,0 8 3
7 4 ,8 1 0
2 5 ,4 9 7
2 3 ,9 0 7
2 3 ,5 3 0
2 3 ,2 8 7
2 3 ,1 3 1
2 3 ,0 6 1
2 3 ,1 8 6
2 3 ,0 4 9
2 3 ,0 3 0
2 3 ,1 5 9
2 3 ,3 4 7
2 3 ,5 1 8
2 3 ,7 2 4
2 3 ,8 3 2
2 3 ,9 2 7
1 ,0 2 5
1 ,0 2 3
M in in g
1 ,1 3 9
1 ,1 4 3
1 ,1 0 0
1 ,0 8 2
1 ,0 6 6
1 ,0 5 3
1 ,0 3 7
1 ,0 1 4
1 ,0 0 6
997
994
1 ,0 0 3
1 ,0 1 7
Construction
4 ,1 8 8
3 ,9 1 1
3 ,8 7 5
3 ,8 4 7
3 ,8 4 3
3 ,8 1 5
3 ,9 0 5
3 ,7 9 0
3 ,7 5 7
3 ,7 8 6
3 ,8 6 0
3 ,9 3 3
3 ,9 7 4
4 ,0 2 2
4 ,0 5 0
2 0 .1 7 0
1 8 ,8 5 3
1 8 ,5 5 5
1 8 ,3 5 8
1 8 ,2 2 2
1 8 ,1 9 3
1 8 ,2 4 4
1 8 ,2 4 5
1 8 ,2 6 7
1 8 ,3 7 6
1 8 ,4 9 3
1 8 ,5 8 2
1 8 ,7 3 3
1 8 ,7 8 5
1 8 ,8 5 4
M a n u fa c tu rin g
P r o d u c tio n w o r k e r s .....................................................
1 4 ,0 2 0
1 2 ,7 9 0
1 2 ,5 4 2
1 2 ,3 6 8
1 2 ,2 5 2
1 2 ,2 4 1
1 2 ,2 9 1
1 2 ,3 0 3
1 2 ,3 2 3
1 2 ,4 3 5
1 2 ,5 3 1
1 2 ,6 1 5
1 2 ,7 5 6
1 2 ,7 9 7
1 2 ,8 6 6
1 2 ,1 0 9
1 1 ,1 0 0
1 0 ,8 6 2
1 0 ,6 8 5
1 0 ,5 7 7
1 0 ,5 5 9
1 0 ,5 9 4
1 0 ,6 0 8
1 0 ,6 1 7
1 0 ,6 8 9
1 0 ,7 8 8
1 0 ,8 4 4
1 0 ,9 6 1
1 1 ,0 1 8
1 1 ,0 7 3
P r o d u c tio n w o r k e r s .....................................................
8 ,2 9 4
7 ,3 5 0
7 ,1 5 0
6 ,9 9 2
6 ,9 0 0
6 ,8 9 2
6 ,9 3 1
6 ,9 4 9
6 ,9 6 1
7 ,0 3 5
7 ,1 1 5
7 ,1 6 9
7 ,2 7 8
7 ,3 2 5
7 ,3 8 0
L u m b e r a n d w o o d p r o d u c t s ............................................
666
603
603
605
608
614
625
631
638
651
662
679
688
700
704
F u r n it u r e a n d f ix t u r e s
464
433
428
426
427
429
430
427
433
440
446
450
459
458
457
638
578
570
565
559
554
557
557
559
565
570
573
577
582
585
830
839
839
849
D u ra b le goods
.........................................................
S t o n e , c la y , a n d g la s s p r o d u c ts
...............................
P r im a r y m e ta l i n d u s t r i e s .....................................................
1 ,1 2 2
922
869
840
823
816
817
810
816
820
828
F a b r ic a te d m e ta l p r o d u c t s .................................................
1 ,5 9 0
1 ,4 3 5
1 ,4 0 2
1 ,3 7 8
1 ,3 6 2
1 ,3 5 9
1 ,3 6 4
1 ,3 6 4
1 ,3 6 2
1 ,3 6 9
1 ,3 7 9
1 ,3 8 4
1 ,3 9 1
1 ,4 1 3
1 ,4 1 4
M a c h in e r y , e x c e p t e l e c t r i c a l ............................................
2 ,4 9 8
2 ,2 6 7
2 ,1 8 4
2 ,1 2 2
2 ,0 8 8
2 ,0 6 6
2 ,0 4 8
2 ,0 4 2
2 ,0 3 0
2 ,0 3 1
2 ,0 6 4
2 ,0 6 6
2 ,0 9 4
2 ,1 0 4
2 ,1 1 4
E le c tr ic a n d e le c t r o n ic e q u i p m e n t ...............................
2 ,0 9 4
2 ,0 1 6
1 ,9 9 2
1 ,9 7 6
1 ,9 7 5
1 ,9 5 7
1 ,9 7 4
1 ,9 8 1
1 ,9 8 8
1 ,9 9 9
2 ,0 1 0
2 ,0 3 0
2 ,0 4 7
2 ,0 4 2
2 ,0 7 6
T r a n s p o r t a tio n e q u i p m e n t ................................................
1 ,8 9 8
1 ,7 4 4
1 ,7 2 4
1 ,6 9 1
1 ,6 6 1
1 ,6 9 6
1 ,7 1 0
1 ,7 2 9
1 ,7 2 3
1 ,7 4 3
1 ,7 5 7
1 ,7 6 2
1 ,7 9 4
1 ,8 0 4
1 ,7 9 7
I n s t r u m e n t s a n d re la te d p r o d u c t s ...............................
730
716
710
705
700
695
695
693
691
690
689
687
687
693
694
M is c e lla n e o u s m a n u f a c t u r i n g ........................................
408
386
380
377
374
373
374
374
377
381
383
383
385
383
383
N o n d u ra b le goods
P r o d u c tio n w o r k e r s .....................................................
F o o d a n d k in d r e d p r o d u c ts
............................................
8 ,0 6 1
7 ,7 5 3
7 ,6 9 3
7 ,6 7 3
7 ,6 4 5
7 ,6 3 4
7 ,6 5 0
7 ,6 3 7
7 ,6 5 0
7 ,6 8 7
7 ,7 0 5
7 ,7 3 8
7 ,7 7 2
7 ,7 6 7
7 ,7 8 1
5 ,7 2 7
5 ,4 4 0
5 ,3 9 2
5 ,3 7 6
5 ,3 5 2
5 ,3 4 9
5 ,3 6 0
5 ,3 5 4
5 ,3 6 2
5 ,4 0 0
5 ,4 1 6
5 ,4 4 6
5 ,4 7 8
5 ,4 7 2
5 ,4 8 6
1 ,6 7 1
1 ,6 3 8
1 ,6 3 3
1 ,6 3 6
1 ,6 3 2
1 ,6 2 6
1 ,6 2 6
1 ,6 2 0
1 ,6 1 9
1 ,6 3 3
1 ,6 3 2
1 ,6 4 3
1 ,6 3 0
1 ,6 3 8
1 ,6 2 4
T o b a c c o m a n u f a c t u r e s .........................................................
70
68
66
66
63
69
69
67
67
66
66
65
65
62
T e x t ile m i ll p r o d u c t s ..............................................................
823
750
734
733
727
727
726
726
730
733
736
745
746
753
753
1 ,2 4 4
1 ,1 6 4
1 ,1 4 9
1 ,1 4 8
1 ,1 4 1
1 ,1 4 0
1 ,1 5 0
1 ,1 4 8
1 ,1 4 3
1 ,1 4 9
1 ,1 5 3
1 ,1 5 9
1 ,1 8 0
1 ,1 7 5
1 ,1 7 5
A p p a r e l a n d o t h e r t e x t ile p r o d u c ts
...........................
P a p e r a n d a llie d p r o d u c t s ................................................
64
689
662
659
653
654
653
653
652
652
654
656
657
658
660
660
.....................................................
1 ,2 6 6
1 ,2 6 9
1 ,2 6 6
1 ,2 6 5
1 ,2 6 3
1 ,2 6 3
1 ,2 6 6
1 ,2 6 5
1 ,2 6 9
1 ,2 7 4
1 ,2 7 6
1 ,2 8 1
1 ,2 8 4
1 ,2 8 7
1 ,2 8 9
C h e m ic a ls a n d a llie d p r o d u c t s .......................................
1 ,1 0 9
1 ,0 7 9
1 ,0 7 0
1 ,0 6 6
1 ,0 6 4
1 ,0 6 1
P r in t in g a n d p u b l is h in g
1 ,0 5 9
1 ,0 5 7
1 ,0 5 6
1 ,0 5 6
1 ,0 5 8
1 ,0 5 8
1 ,0 5 6
1 ,0 5 9
1 ,0 5 7
214
201
202
201
200
199
200
199
199
199
198
198
197
195
194
R u b b e r a n d m is c e lla n e o u s p la s t ic s p r o d u c ts
737
701
696
689
685
685
688
691
699
707
716
721
732
738
739
L e a th e r a n d le a t h e r p r o d u c ts
238
221
218
216
216
213
215
214
216
214
214
213
213
216
216
6 5 ,6 5 9
6 5 ,6 8 9
6 5 ,7 0 5
6 5 ,6 5 1
6 5 ,6 5 4
6 5 ,6 0 4
6 5 ,6 9 9
6 5 ,6 9 7
6 5 ,7 8 4
6 5 ,9 4 2
6 6 ,0 7 4
6 6 ,3 2 6
6 6 ,4 2 8
6 5 ,9 0 3
6 6 ,5 4 1
5 ,1 6 5
5 ,0 8 1
5 ,0 5 4
5 ,0 3 3
5 ,0 1 9
5 ,0 0 8
4 ,9 7 9
4 ,9 6 6
4 ,9 6 3
4 ,9 8 8
4 ,9 9 3
4 ,9 9 2
4 ,9 8 4
4 ,3 4 3
5 ,0 1 5
2 0 ,5 4 7
2 0 ,4 0 1
2 0 ,3 8 0
2 0 ,3 4 4
2 0 ,3 2 0
2 0 ,2 5 6
2 0 ,3 5 5
2 0 ,3 4 3
2 0 ,3 5 0
2 0 ,3 2 9
2 0 ,3 5 6
2 0 ,4 9 4
2 0 ,5 2 9
2 0 ,5 9 1
2 0 ,4 9 4
P e t r o le u m a n d c o a l p r o d u c ts
........................................
........................................
SER V IC E -P R O D U C IN G
T ra n s p o rta tio n and p u b lic u tilitie s
W h o le s a le and re ta il tra d e
W h o le s a le tra d e
5 ,3 5 8
5 ,2 8 0
5 ,2 5 2
5 ,2 3 7
5 ,2 1 2
5 ,1 9 2
5 ,1 8 5
5 ,1 8 1
5 ,1 7 6
5 ,1 8 0
5 ,1 9 7
5 ,2 2 2
5 ,2 2 9
5 ,2 4 6
5 ,2 5 4
1 5 ,1 8 9
1 5 ,1 2 2
1 5 ,1 2 8
1 5 ,1 0 7
1 5 ,1 0 8
1 5 ,0 6 4
1 5 ,1 7 0
1 5 ,1 6 2
1 5 ,1 7 4
1 5 ,1 4 9
1 5 ,1 5 9
1 5 ,2 7 2
1 5 ,3 0 0
1 5 ,3 4 5
1 5 ,2 4 0
5 ,2 9 8
5 ,3 4 0
5 ,3 5 1
5 ,3 5 0
5 ,3 5 6
5 ,3 6 7
5 ,3 7 4
5 ,3 8 4
5 ,3 9 1
5 .4 2 3
5 ,4 3 5
5 ,4 5 1
5 ,4 6 5
5 ,4 8 8
5 ,4 8 5
S e rv ic e s
1 8 ,6 1 9
1 9 ,0 6 4
1 9 ,1 3 6
1 9 ,1 4 4
1 9 ,1 8 7
1 9 ,2 1 5
1 9 ,2 3 8
1 9 ,2 6 2
1 9 ,3 5 6
1 9 ,4 7 8
1 9 ,5 4 6
1 9 ,6 6 8
1 9 ,7 7 0
1 9 ,8 2 9
1 9 ,8 8 9
G o v e rn m e n t
1 6 ,0 3 1
1 5 ,8 0 3
1 5 ,7 8 4
1 5 ,7 8 0
1 5 ,7 7 2
1 5 ,7 5 8
1 5 ,7 5 3
1 5 ,7 4 2
1 5 ,7 2 4
1 5 ,7 2 4
1 5 ,7 4 4
1 5 ,7 2 1
1 5 ,6 8 0
1 5 ,6 5 2
1 5 ,6 5 8
R e ta il tra d e
F in a n c e , in s u ra n c e , and re a l e state
F e d e ra l
.......................................................................
S ta te a n d l o c a l ............................................
2 ,7 7 2
2 ,7 3 9
2 ,7 3 5
2 ,7 4 2
2 ,7 4 6
2 ,7 4 7
2 ,7 4 8
2 ,7 4 2
2 ,7 4 2
2 ,7 4 9
2 ,7 5 6
2 ,7 4 2
2 ,7 3 8
2 ,7 3 3
2 ,7 4 1
1 3 ,2 5 9
1 3 ,0 6 4
1 3 ,0 4 9
1 3 ,0 3 8
1 3 ,0 2 6
1 3 ,0 1 1
1 3 ,0 0 5
1 3 ,0 0 0
1 2 ,9 8 2
1 2 ,9 7 5
1 2 ,9 8 8
1 2 ,9 7 9
1 2 ,9 4 2
1 2 ,9 1 9
1 2 ,9 1 7
p = p r e lim in a r y .
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
91
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • Current Labor Statistics: Establishment Data
12.
Hours and earnings, by industry division, selected years, 1 9 5 0 -8 2
[ G r o s s a v e r a g e s , p r o d u c t i o n o r n o n s u p e r v i s o r y w o r k e r s o n n o n a g r i c u l t u r a l p a y r o lls ]
A verage
A verage
A verag e
A verag e
A verag e
A verag e
A verag e
A verag e
A verage
w e e k ly
w e e k ly
hourly
w ee kly
w e e k ly
hourly
w e e k ly
w e e k ly
hourly
w e e k ly
w e e k ly
hourly
ea rn in g s
hours
earn in g s
earn in g s
hours
earn in g s
earn in g s
hours
e arn in g s
e arn in g s
hours
e a rn in g s
Year
A verage
P riva te sector
A verage
M in in g
C onstruction
A v e ra g e
M a n u fa c tu rin g
1950
...............................
$5 3 13
3 9 .8
$ 1 .3 4
$ 6 7 .1 6
3 7 .9
$ 1 .7 7
$ 6 9 .6 8
3 7 .4
$ 1 .8 6
$ 5 8 .3 2
4 0 .5
1955
...............................
6 7 .7 2
3 9 .6
1 .7 1
8 9 .5 4
4 0 .7
2 .2 0
9 0 .9 0
3 7 .1
2 .4 5
7 5 .3 0
4 0 .7
1 .8 5
2 .6 0
1 1 2 .5 7
3 6 .7
3 .0 7
8 9 .7 2
3 9 .7
2 .2 6
$ 1 .4 4
..........................
8 0 .6 7
3 8 .6
2 .0 9
1 0 5 .0 4
4 0 .4
1964
...............................
9 1 .3 3
3 8 .7
2 .3 6
1 1 7 .7 4
4 1 .9
2 .8 1
1 3 2 .0 6
3 7 .2
3 .5 5
1 0 2 .9 7
4 0 .7
2 .5 3
1965
...............................
9 5 .4 5
3 8 .8
2 .4 6
1 2 3 .5 2
4 2 .3
2 .9 2
1 3 8 .3 8
3 7 .4
3 .7 0
1 0 7 .5 3
4 1 .2
2 .6 1
1966
...............................
9 8 .8 2
3 8 .6
2 .5 6
1 3 0 .2 4
1 4 6 .2 6
3 7 .6
3 .8 9
1 1 2 .1 9
4 1 .4
2 .7 1
1967
...............................
1 0 1 .8 4
3 8 .0
2 .6 8
1 3 5 .8 9
4 2 .6
3 .1 9
1 5 4 .9 5
3 7 .7
4 .1 1
1 1 4 .4 9
4 0 .6
1968
...............................
1 0 7 .7 3
3 7 .8
2 .8 5
1 4 2 .7 1
4 2 .6
3 .3 5
1 6 4 .4 9
3 7 .3
4 .4 1
1 2 2 .5 1
4 0 .7
3 .0 1
1969
...............................
1 1 4 .6 1
3 7 .7
3 .0 4
1 5 4 .8 0
4 3 .0
3 .6 0
1 8 1 .5 4
3 7 .9
4 .7 9
1 2 9 .5 1
4 0 .6
3 .1 9
1970
3 9 .8
3 .3 5
I9 6 0 1
4 2 .7
3 .0 5
2 .8 2
...............................
1 1 9 .8 3
3 7 .1
3 .2 3
1 6 4 ,4 0
4 2 .7
3 .8 5
1 9 5 .4 5
3 7 .3
5 .2 4
1 3 3 .3 3
1 9 7 1 ...............................
1 2 7 .3 1
36 9
3 .4 5
1 7 2 .1 4
4 2 .4
4 .0 6
2 1 1 .6 7
3 7 .2
5 .6 9
1 4 2 .4 4
1972
...............................
1 3 6 .9 0
3 7 .0
3 .7 0
1 8 9 ,1 4
4 2 .6
4 .4 4
2 2 1 .1 9
3 6 .5
6 .0 6
1 5 4 .7 1
4 0 .5
3 .8 2
1973
...............................
1 4 5 .3 9
3 6 .9
3 .9 4
2 0 1 ,4 0
4 2 .4
4 .7 5
2 3 5 .8 9
3 6 .8
6 .4 1
1 6 6 .4 6
4 0 .7
4 .0 9
3 9 .9
3 .5 7
1974
...............................
1 5 4 .7 6
3 6 .5
4 .2 4
2 1 9 .1 4
4 1 .9
5 .2 3
2 4 9 .2 5
3 6 .6
6 .8 1
1 7 6 .8 0
4 0 .0
4 .4 2
1975
...............................
1 6 3 .5 3
3 6 .1
4 .5 3
2 4 9 .3 1
4 1 .9
5 .9 5
2 6 6 .0 8
3 6 .4
7 .3 1
1 9 0 .7 9
3 9 .5
4 .8 3
5 .2 2
1976
...............................
1 7 5 .4 5
3 6 .1
4 .8 6
2 7 3 .9 0
4 2 .4
6 .4 6
2 8 3 .7 3
3 6 .8
7 .7 1
2 0 9 .3 2
4 0 .1
1977
...............................
1 8 9 .0 0
3 6 .0
5 .2 5
3 0 1 .2 0
4 3 .4
6 .9 4
2 9 5 .6 5
3 6 .5
8 .1 0
2 2 8 .9 0
4 0 .3
5 .6 8
1978
...............................
2 0 3 .7 0
3 5 .8
5 .6 9
3 3 2 .8 8
4 3 .4
7 .6 7
3 1 8 .6 9
3 6 .8
8 .6 6
2 4 9 .2 7
4 0 .4
6 .1 7
1979
...............................
2 1 9 .9 1
3 5 .7
6 .1 6
3 6 5 .0 7
4 3 .0
8 .4 9
3 4 2 .9 9
3 7 .0
9 .2 7
2 6 9 .3 4
4 0 .2
6 .7 0
1980
3 7 .0
9 .9 4
2 8 8 .6 2
3 9 .7
7 .2 7
...............................
2 3 5 .1 0
3 5 .3
6 .6 6
3 9 7 .0 6
4 3 .3
9 .1 7
3 6 7 .7 8
1 9 8 1 ...............................
2 5 5 .2 0
3 5 .2
7 .2 5
4 3 9 .7 5
4 3 .7
1 0 .0 4
2 9 9 .2 6
3 6 .9
1 0 .8 2
3 1 8 .0 0
3 9 .8
7 .9 9
...............................
266 92
3 4 .8
7 .6 7
4 5 9 .2 3
4 2 .6
1 0 .7 8
4 2 6 .4 5
3 6 .7
1 1 .6 2
3 3 0 .6 5
3 8 .9
8 .5 0
1982
Tran sportation and p ublic
F in a n c e , in su ran ce, and
W h o le s a le and re ta il trade
u tilitie s
1950
...............................
$ 4 4 .5 5
4 0 .5
$ 1 .1 0
$ 5 0 52
1955
...............................
5 5 .1 6
3 9 .4
1 .4 0
63 92
37 6
...........................
6 6 .0 1
3 8 .6
1 .7 1
75 14
37 2
I9 6 0 1
S e rvices
re a l esta te
37 7
$1 3 4
? n?
1964
...............................
$ 1 1 8 .7 8
4 1 .1
$ 2 .8 9
7 4 .6 6
3 7 .9
1 .9 7
8 5 .7 9
3 7 .3
2 .3 0
$ 7 0 .0 3
3 6 .1
$ 1 .9 4
1965
...............................
1 2 5 .1 4
4 1 .3
3 .0 3
7 6 .9 1
3 7 .7
2 .0 4
8 8 .9 1
3 7 .2
2 .3 9
7 3 .6 0
3 5 .9
2 .0 5
1966
...............................
1 2 8 .1 3
4 1 .2
3 .1 1
7 9 .3 9
3 7 .1
2 .1 4
9 2 .1 3
3 7 .3
2 .4 7
7 7 .0 4
3 5 .5
2 .1 7
8 0 .3 8
3 5 .1
1967
...............................
1 3 0 .8 2
4 0 .5
3 .2 3
8 2 .3 5
3 6 .6
2 .2 5
9 5 .7 2
3 7 .1
2 .5 8
1968
...............................
1 3 8 .8 5
4 0 .6
3 .4 2
8 7 .0 0
3 6 .1
2 .4 1
1 0 1 .7 5
3 7 .0
2 .7 5
83 97
3 4 .7
2 .4 2
1969
...............................
1 4 7 .7 4
4 0 .7
3 .6 3
9 1 .3 9
3 5 .7
2 .5 6
1 0 8 .7 0
3 7 .1
2 .9 3
9 0 .5 7
3 4 .7
2 .6 1
1970
...............................
1 5 5 .9 3
4 0 .5
3 .8 5
9 6 .0 2
3 5 .3
2 .7 2
1 1 2 .6 7
3 6 .7
3 .0 7
9 6 .6 6
3 4 .4
2 81
1 9 7 1 ...............................
2 .2 9
1 6 8 .8 2
4 0 .1
4 .2 1
1 0 1 .0 9
3 5 .1
2 .8 8
1 1 7 .8 5
3 6 .6
3 .2 2
1 0 3 .0 6
33 9
1972
...............................
3 .0 4
1 8 7 .8 6
4 0 .4
4 .6 5
1 0 6 .4 5
3 4 .9
3 .0 5
1 2 2 .9 8
3 6 .6
3 .3 6
1 1 0 .8 5
1973
...............................
3 3 .9
3 .2 7
2 0 3 .3 1
4 0 .5
5 .0 2
1 1 1 .7 6
3 4 .6
3 .2 3
1 2 9 .2 0
3 6 .6
3 .5 3
1 1 7 .2 9
33 8
3 47
3 3 .6
3 75
1974
...............................
2 1 7 .4 8
4 0 .2
5 .4 1
1 1 9 .0 2
3 4 .2
3 .4 8
1 3 7 .6 1
3 6 .5
3 .7 7
1 2 6 .0 0
1975
...............................
2 3 3 .4 4
3 9 .7
5 .8 8
1 2 6 .4 5
3 3 .9
3 .7 3
1 4 8 .1 9
3 6 .5
4 .0 6
1 3 4 .6 7
3 3 .5
4 02
1976
...............................
2 5 6 .7 1
3 9 .8
6 .4 5
1 3 3 .7 9
3 3 .7
3 .9 7
1 5 5 .4 3
3 6 .4
4 .2 7
1 4 3 .5 2
33 3
4 31
1977
...............................
2 7 8 .9 0
39 9
6 .9 9
1 4 2 .5 2
3 3 .3
4 .2 8
1 6 5 .2 6
3 6 .4
4 .5 4
1978
...............................
3 3 .0
3 0 2 .8 0
4 65
4 0 .0
7 .5 7
1 5 3 .6 4
3 2 .9
4 .6 7
1 7 8 .0 0
3 6 .4
4 .8 9
1 6 3 .6 7
1979
...............................
32 8
4 99
3 2 5 .5 8
39 9
8 .1 6
1 6 4 .9 6
3 2 .6
5 .0 6
1 9 0 .7 7
3 6 .2
5 .2 7
1980
...............................
1 7 5 .2 7
3 5 1 .2 5
3 2 .7
5 36
3 9 .6
8 .8 7
1 7 6 .4 6
3 2 .2
5 .4 8
2 0 9 .6 0
3 6 .2
5 .7 9
1 9 0 .7 1
3 2 .6
5 .8 5
1 5 3 .4 5
1 9 8 1 ...............................
3 8 2 .1 8
3 9 .4
9 .7 0
1 9 0 .6 2
3 2 .2
5 .9 2
2 2 9 .0 5
3 6 .3
6 .3 1
1982
2 0 8 .9 7
32 6
4 0 1 .7 0
3 9 .0
6 41
1 0 .3 0
1 9 8 .1 0
3 1 .9
6 .2 1
2 4 5 .4 4
3 6 .2
6 .7 8
224 94
3 2 .6
6 .9 0
...............................
' D a t a in c lu d e A la s k a a n d H a w a ii b e g in n in g in 1 9 5 9 .
92
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
13.
W eekly hours, by industry division and m ajor m anufacturing group, seasonally adjusted
[ G r o s s a v e r a g e s , p r o d u c t i o n o r n o n s u p e r v i s o r y w o r k e r s o n p r iv a t e n o n a g r i c u l t u r a l p a y r o lls ]
198 2
A nnual a verag e
1983
Industry d iv is io n a nd group
1981
PRIVATE SECTOR
M A N U FA C TU R IN G
O v e r tim e h o u r s .............................................................
D u ra b le goods
.......................................................................
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
M a r.
Apr.
May
June
A ug.P
S e pt.P
3 5 .0
3 5 .0
3 5 .2
4 0 .1
4 0 .2
4 0 .3
4 0 .7
2 .9
3 .0
3 .1
3 .3
4 0 .6
4 0 .8
4 0 .8
4 1 .3
1982
Sept.
3 5 .2
3 4 .8
3 4 .8
3 4 .7
3 4 .7
3 4 .8
3 5 .1
3 4 .5
3 4 .8
3 4 .9
3 5 .1
3 5 .1
3 9 .8
3 8 .9
3 8 .8
38 9
3 9 .0
3 9 .0
3 9 .7
3 9 .2
3 9 .5
4 0 .1
4 0 .0
2 .8
2 .3
2 .3
2 .3
2 .3
2 .3
2 .4
2 .4
2 .6
2 .9
2 .7
4 0 .2
3 9 .3
3 9 .1
3 9 .2
3 9 .3
3 9 .3
4 0 .1
3 9 .7
3 9 .9
4 0 .5
40 4
July
O v e r tim e h o u r s .............................................................
2 .8
2 .2
2 .1
2 .1
2 .1
2 .2
2 .2
2 .3
2 .5
2 .8
2 .6
2 .8
3 .0
3 .1
3 .4
L u m b e r a n d w o o d p r o d u c t s ............................................
3 8 .7
3 8 .0
3 8 .4
3 8 .1
3 8 .7
3 8 .8
4 0 .5
3 9 .5
3 9 .5
4 0 .0
3 9 .8
4 0 .0
3 9 .9
4 0 .1
4 0 .3
F u r n it u r e a n d f ix tu r e s
3 8 .4
3 7 .2
3 7 .5
3 7 .5
3 7 .6
3 7 .8
3 8 .3
3 8 .6
3 7 .9
3 9 .3
3 9 .2
3 9 .6
3 9 .7
3 9 .5
3 9 .8
...............................
4 0 .6
4 0 .0
4 0 .2
4 0 .2
4 0 .2
4 0 .1
4 1 .4
4 0 .5
4 0 .6
4 1 .0
4 1 .2
4 1 .6
4 1 .7
4 1 .7
4 2 .0
P r im a r y m e ta l i n d u s t r i e s .....................................................
.........................................................
4 0 .5
3 8 .6
3 7 .8
3 8 .2
38 3
3 8 .8
3 8 .9
3 9 .1
3 9 .4
3 9 .9
4 0 .3
4 0 .3
4 0 .8
4 1 .0
4 1 .1
F a b r ic a te d m e ta l p r o d u c t s ................................................
4 0 .3
3 9 .2
3 8 .9
3 9 .0
3 9 .2
3 9 .2
3 9 .9
3 9 .6
3 9 .7
4 0 .5
4 0 .4
4 0 .5
4 0 .7
4 0 .8
4 1 .5
4 0 .4
S to n e , c la y , a n d g la s s p r o d u c ts
4 0 .9
3 9 .7
3 9 .2
3 9 .3
3 9 .3
3 9 .3
39 6
3 9 .4
3 9 .7
4 0 .2
4 0 .0
4 0 .7
4 0 .7
4 0 .9
E le c tr ic a n d e le c t r o n ic e q u i p m e n t ...............................
4 0 .0
3 9 .3
3 9 .0
3 9 .2
3 9 .3
3 9 .4
3 9 .9
3 9 .5
3 9 .8
4 0 .4
4 0 .3
4 0 .5
4 0 .8
4 0 .7
4 1 .0
T r a n s p o r t a tio n e q u i p m e n t ................................................
4 0 .9
4 0 .5
4 0 .1
4 0 .4
4 0 .9
4 0 .1
4 1 .6
4 1 .2
4 1 .7
4 2 .3
4 1 .6
4 1 .9
4 2 .0
4 1 .9
4 3 .4
I n s t r u m e n t s a n d r e la te d p r o d u c t s ...............................
4 0 .4
39 8
39 9
3 9 .6
3 9 .4
3 9 .7
4 0 ,4
3 9 .7
4 0 .0
4 0 .5
4 0 .4
4 0 .1
4 0 .7
4 0 .2
4 0 .4
3 9 .1
3 8 .4
38 6
3 8 .5
3 8 .6
3 8 .6
3 9 .1
3 8 .5
3 9 .0
3 9 .5
3 9 .4
3 9 .6
3 9 .5
3 9 .5
3 9 .9
2 .8
2 .5
2 .6
2 .6
2 .5
2 .5
2 .6
2 .6
2 .7
3 .0
2 .9
3 .0
3 .0
3 .1
3 .2
M a c h in e r y , e x c e p t e l e c t r i c a l ............................................
N o n d u ra b le goods
O v e r tim e h o u r s .............................................................
............................................
3 9 .7
3 9 .4
3 9 .4
3 9 .5
3 9 .4
3 9 .1
3 9 .3
3 9 .0
3 9 .2
3 9 .6
3 9 .4
3 9 .8
3 9 .4
3 9 .6
3 9 .8
T e x t ile m i ll p r o d u c t s .............................................................
F o o d a n d k in d r e d p r o d u c t s
3 9 .6
3 7 .5
3 8 .1
3 8 .3
3 8 .8
3 8 .9
3 9 .7
3 9 .0
3 9 .6
4 0 .6
4 0 .4
4 0 .7
4 0 .7
4 1 .0
4 1 .4
A p p a r e l a n d o t h e r te x t ile p r o d u c ts
..........................
3 5 .7
3 4 .7
3 5 .1
3 5 .1
3 5 .0
3 5 .1
3 6 .6
3 5 .2
35 6
3 6 .2
3 6 .1
3 6 .1
3 5 .8
3 6 .2
3 6 .7
P a p e r a n d a llie d p r o d u c t s ................................................
4 2 .5
4 1 .8
4 1 ,6
4 1 .7
4 1 .7
4 1 .7
4 1 .8
4 1 .4
4 2 .1
4 2 .4
4 2 .7
4 2 .8
4 2 .9
4 2 .8
4 3 .1
3 7 .7
.....................................................
3 7 .3
3 7 .1
3 7 .0
3 7 .1
3 7 .1
3 7 .1
3 7 .5
3 7 .1
3 7 .4
3 7 .7
3 7 .4
3 7 .6
3 7 .7
3 7 .5
C h e m ic a ls a n d a llie d p r o d u c t s ........................................
4 1 .6
4 0 .9
4 1 .0
4 0 .8
4 0 .7
4 0 .9
4 1 .0
4 1 .0
4 1 .2
4 1 .5
4 1 .6
4 1 .9
4 1 .8
4 1 .6
P e t r o le u m a n d c o a l p r o d u c ts
P r in t in g a n d p u b lis h in g
.......................................
4 3 .2
4 3 .9
4 4 .2
4 3 .8
4 4 .1
4 4 .4
4 4 .5
4 4 .4
4 4 .9
4 3 .5
4 3 .6
4 3 .8
4 3 .7
4 3 .4
4 3 .0
L e a th e r a n d le a th e r p r o d u c ts
.......................................
3 6 .7
3 5 .6
3 5 .7
3 5 .4
3 5 .8
3 5 .8
3 6 .3
3 4 .9
36 0
3 7 .0
3 6 .8
3 6 .8
3 7 .4
3 7 .4
3 8 .1
T R A N S P O R TA TIO N AN D PU B LIC U T ILIT IE S
3 9 .4
3 9 .0
3 8 .8
3 8 .8
38 9
38 9
3 8 .6
3 8 .6
3 8 .8
3 8 .8
3 8 .9
3 8 .9
3 8 .9
3 9 .0
3 9 .2
W HO LE SALE AN D RETAIL TRA DE
3 2 .2
3 1 .9
3 1 .9
3 1 .9
3 1 .8
3 2 .1
3 1 .9
3 1 .4
3 1 .7
3 1 .7
3 1 .9
3 2 .0
3 1 .9
3 1 .8
3 1 .8
W HO LE SALE TRADE
3 8 .5
3 8 .4
3 8 .4
38 4
3 8 .4
3 8 .4
3 8 .5
3 8 .2
3 8 .4
3 8 .5
3 8 .6
3 8 .7
3 8 .6
3 8 .5
3 8 .7
RETAIL TRADE
3 0 .1
2 9 .9
29 9
2 9 .9
2 9 .8
3 0 .1
2 9 .9
2 9 .3
2 9 .7
2 9 .6
2 9 .9
2 9 .9
2 9 .8
2 9 .7
2 9 .6
SER VIC ES
3 2 .6
3 2 .6
32 8
3 2 .6
3 2 .6
3 2 .6
3 2 .9
3 2 .5
3 2 .7
3 2 .7
3 2 .9
3 2 .7
3 2 .6
3 2 .7
3 2 .9
4 1 .6
p - p r e lim in a r y .
T h is is b e c a u s e th e s e a s o n a l c o m p o n e n t in t h e s e is s m a ll r e la t iv e t o t h e t r e n d - c y c le , o r ir r e g u la r c o m -
N O T E : M i s c e lla n e o u s m a n u fa c t u r in g (a m a jo r m a n u fa c t u r in g g r o u p , d u r a b le g o o d s ) a n d r u b b e r a n d
p o n e n t s , o r b o t h , a n d c o n s e q u e n t ly c a n n o t b e p r e c is e ly s e p a r a te d ,
m is c e lla n e o u s p la s t ic s p r o d u c t s (a m a jo r m a n u fa c t u r in g g r o u p , n o n d u r a b le g o o d s ) a re n o lo n g e r s h o w n .
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
93
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • Current Labor Statistics: Establishment Data
14.
H ourly earnings, by industry division and m ajor m anufacturing group
[Gross averages, production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls]
Annu al a verag e
198 2
1983
1981
1 982
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D ec.
Jan.
Feb.
M a r.
Apr
May
June
July
Aug. F
S e p t.F
$ 7 .2 5
$ 7 .6 7
$ 7 .7 6
$ 7 .7 9
$ 7 .8 1
$ 7 .8 2
$ 7 .9 0
$ 7 .9 2
$ 7 .9 0
$ 7 .9 4
$ 7 .9 7
$ 7 .9 7
$ 8 .0 0
$ 7 .9 4
$ 8 .1 1
( 1)
<1 )
7 .7 3
7 .7 6
7 .7 8
7 .8 2
7 .8 8
7 .9 1
7 .9 1
7 .9 5
7 .9 7
8 .0 0
8 .0 3
7 .9 8
8 .0 8
M IN IN G
1 0 .0 4
1 0 .7 8
1 0 .9 9
1 0 .9 6
1 1 .0 1
1 1 .0 3
1 1 .2 1
1 1 .2 5
1 1 .1 9
1 1 .2 8
1 1 .2 0
1 1 .2 5
1 1 .2 9
1 1 .2 5
1 1 .3 4
C O N STR U C TIO N
1 0 .8 2
1 1 .6 2
1 1 .7 4
1 1 .8 8
1 1 .7 2
1 1 .9 6
1 1 .9 5
1 2 .0 0
1 1 .9 5
1 1 .9 0
1 1 .8 0
1 1 .7 4
1 1 .7 8
1 1 .8 4
1 1 .9 8
7 .9 9
8 .5 0
8 .5 9
8 .5 6
8 .6 1
8 .6 8
8 .7 1
8 .7 5
8 .7 4
8 .7 7
8 .7 8
8 .8 1
8 .8 6
8 .7 9
8 .9 1
8 .5 4
9 .0 6
9 .1 7
9 .1 3
9 .1 7
9 24
9 :2 6
9 .3 1
9 .2 9
9 .3 1
9 .3 4
9 .3 7
9 40
9 34
9 49
PRIVATE SECTOR
S e a s o n a lly a d j u s t e d ....................................................
M A N U FA C TU R IN G
D u ra b le goods
L u m b e r a n d w o o d p r o d u c t s ...............................
6 .9 9
7 .4 6
7 .6 5
7 .5 7
7 .5 9
7 .5 5
7 .6 8
7 .7 2 '
7 .6 8
7 .7 4
7 .8 5
7 .8 2
7 .8 3
7 .8 5
F u r n it u r e a n d f i x t u r e s ................................................
5 .9 1
6 .3 1
6 .4 0
6 .4 0
6 .4 3
6 46
6 .4 9
6 .5 0
6 .5 1
6 .5 1
6 .5 2
6 .6 0
6 65
6 .6 7
6 .7 2
S to n e , c la y , a n d g la s s p r o d u c t s ......................
8 27
8 .8 6
9 .0 3
9 .0 3
9 .0 4
9 .0 8
9 .1 0
9 .1 0
9 .1 3
9 .1 6
9 20
9 .2 8
9 .3 4
9 .3 0
9 39
P r im a r y m e ta l i n d u s t r i e s .......................................
1 0 .8 1
1 1 .3 3
1 1 .5 4
1 1 .4 1
1 1 .4 9
1 1 .4 9
1 1 .5 6
1 1 .5 3
1 1 .2 4
1 1 .2 5
1 1 .2 8
1 1 .2 3
1 1 .3 7
1 1 .2 8
1 1 .3 9
F a b r ic a te d m e ta l p r o d u c t s ...................................
8 .1 9
8 .7 8
8 .9 0
8 .8 5
8 90
8 .9 6
8 .9 8
9 .0 4
9 .0 5
9 07
9 08
9 .1 1
9 .1 0
9 .1 0
9 .2 2
M a c h in e r y , e x c e p t e l e c t r i c a l ...............................
8 .8 1
9 .2 9
9 .4 1
9 .3 6
9 .3 8
9 43
9 .4 0
9 .4 4
9 .4 6
9 .4 8
9 .5 9
9 .6 3
E le c tr ic a n d e le c t r o n ic e q u i p m e n t ..................
7 .7 8
9 .6 5
9 .6 1
9 .7 3
7 .6 2
8 .2 1
8 .3 7
8 .4 1
8 .4 5
8 .5 1
8 .5 3
8 .5 6
8 .6 0
8 .6 0
8 .6 0
8 .6 3
8 69
8 .6 4
8 .7 7
...................................
1 0 .3 9
1 1 .1 2
1 1 .2 4
1 1 .2 9
1 1 .3 4
1 1 .4 3
1 1 .4 0
1 1 .4 9
1 1 .4 9
1 1 .5 3
1 1 .5 2
1 1 .6 3
1 1 .6 2
1 1 .5 3
1 1 .8 1
I n s t r u m e n t s a n d r e la te d p r o d u c t s ..................
7 .4 2
8 .1 0
8 .2 4
8 .2 6
8 31
8 .3 8
8 .4 2
8 .4 8
8 .4 7
8 .4 6
8 .4 8
8 .4 8
8 .5 7
8 .5 0
8 .6 1
M i s c e lla n e o u s m a n u fa c t u r in g
5 .9 7
6 .4 3
6 .5 0
6 .5 0
6 .5 6
6 .6 7
6 .7 2
6 .7 3
6 .7 5
6 .7 6
6 .8 2
6 .8 1
6 .8 2
6 .8 0
6 .8 3
7 .1 8
7 .7 3
7 .8 4
7 .8 0
788
7 .9 5
7 .9 7
7 .9 9
8 .0 0
8 .0 3
8 .0 3
8 .0 4
8 .1 1
8 .0 5
8 .1 1
T r a n s p o r t a tio n e q u ip m e n t
..........................
N o n d u ra b le goods
...............................
7 .4 4
7 .8 9
7 .9 1
7 .8 8
8 00
8 .0 6
8 .0 9
8 .1 1
8 .1 6
8 .2 0
8 .1 8
8 .1 7
8 .1 7
8 .1 3
8 13
T o b a c c o m a n u f a c t u r e s ............................................
F o o d a n d k in d r e d p r o d u c ts
8 .8 8
9 .7 8
9 .5 5
9 50
1 0 .1 6
9 .6 3
9 .8 7
9 96
1 0 .4 3
1 0 .6 1
1 0 .7 4
1 0 .9 1
1 0 .8 4
1 0 .2 3
9 .9 2
T e x t ile m ill p r o d u c t s ...........................
5 .5 2
5 .8 3
5 86
5 .8 8
5 .9 2
6 .0 4
6 .0 8
6 .1 0
6 .1 1
6 .1 4
6 .1 4
6 .1 6
6 .1 7
6 .1 9
6 .2 3
A p p a r e l a n d o t h e r te x t ile p r o d u c t s ..................
4 .9 7
5 .2 0
5 .2 3
5 .2 1
5 .2 4
5 .2 8
5 .3 3
5 33
5 .3 3
5 .3 5
5 .3 3
5 .3 6
P a p e r a n d a llie d p r o d u c ts
5 .3 5
5 .3 6
5 42
8 .6 0
9 .3 2
9 .6 3
9 .5 3
9 ,6 0
9 .6 5
9 65
9 65
9 .6 7
9 .7 2
9 .8 1
9 .9 1
1 0 .0 6
1 0 .0 1
10 09
..................
P r in t in g a n d p u b l i s h i n g ........................................
8 .1 9
8 .7 5
8 .9 1
8 .8 9
8 .9 2
9 .0 0
8 .9 7
8 .9 9
9 .0 3
9 .0 3
9 .0 5
9 .0 6
9 .1 0
9 16
C h e m ic a ls a n d a llie d p r o d u c t s ..................
9 25
9 .1 2
9 .9 6
1 0 .1 9
1 0 .2 2
1 0 .2 6
1 0 .3 2
1 0 .3 4
1 0 .4 1
1 0 .3 9
1 0 .4 3
1 0 .5 0
1 0 .5 2
1 0 .5 8
1 0 .6 0
10 73
1 1 .3 8
1 2 .4 6
1 2 .6 1
1 2 .5 7
1 2 .6 8
1 2 .7 1
1 3 .1 6
1 3 .2 5
1 3 .2 8
1 3 .2 7
1 3 .1 7
1 3 .1 7
1 3 .2 0
1 3 .1 5
1 3 .3 0
7 .1 7
7 .6 5
7 .7 8
7 .7 4
7 .8 1
7 .9 1
7 .9 1
7 .9 1
7 .9 2
7 95
7 .9 7
7 96
8 .0 6
8 .0 3
8 08
4 .9 9
5 .3 2
5 .4 1
5 .3 9
5 .4 1
5 .4 4
5 .5 0
5 .5 0
5 .5 2
5 .5 2
5 .5 1
5 49
5 52
5 50
5 .5 7
TR A N S P O R TA TIO N AND PUB LIC U TILIT IE S
9 .7 0
1 0 .3 0
1 0 .4 6
1 0 .4 8
1 0 .5 9
1 0 .6 2
1 0 .6 9
1 0 .7 2
1 0 .6 8
1 0 .7 2
1 0 .7 4
1 0 .7 3
1 0 .8 6
1 0 .7 0
1 0 .9 9
W HO LE SALE AN D RETAIL TRA DE
5 .9 2
6 .2 1
6 .2 4 5
6 .2 7
6 .3 0
6 .2 7
6 .4 2
6 .4 5
6 .4 3
6 .4 5
6 .4 6
6 .4 6
6 .4 8
6 .4 6
6 .5 4
W H O LE SA LE TRADE
7 .5 6
8 02
8 .1 0
8 .1 3
8 .1 4
8 .2 0
8 .3 1
8 .2 8
8 .2 7
3 .3 4
8 .3 6
8 .3 5
8 .4 2
8 .4 0
8 .4 7
P e t r o le u m a n d c o a l p r o d u c ts
..........................
R u b b e r a n d m i s c e lla n e o u s
p la s t ic s p r o d u c t s ................................................
L e a th e r a n d le a th e r p r o d u c ts
. . .
RETAIL TRA DE
5 .2 5
5 .4 7
5 .5 0
5 .5 3
5 .5 6
5 .5 4
5 .6 5
5 .6 9
5 .6 8
5 .6 9
5 .7 1
5 .7 1
5 72
5 .7 0
5 .7 7
FIN A N C E, IN S U R A N C E , AN D REAL ESTATE
6 .3 1
6 .7 8
6 .9 0
6 .9 7
7 .0 0
7 .0 1
7 .1 9
7 .2 2
7 .1 9
7 .2 3
7 .3 1
7 .2 6
7 .3 0
7 23
7 32
SER VIC ES
6 .4 1
6 .9 0
6 99
7 .0 4
7 .0 8
7 .1 2
7 .1 8
7 .1 9
7 .1 7
7 .2 0
7 .2 3
7 .2 0
7 .1 8
7 .1 8
7 .2 9
p_
1 N o t a v a ila b le .
15.
p r e lim in a r y .
H ourly Earnings Index, for production w orkers on private nonagricultural payrolls, by industry
[1 9 7 7 = 1 0 0 ]
Not
e a s o n a lly adj usted
S e a s o n a lly ad ju sted
P ercent
P e rc e n t
change
Industry
change
Sept.
July
Aug.
Sept.
from :
Sept.
M ay
June
July
198 2
A ug.
198 3
S ept.
from :
1983P
1983P
S ep t. 1 9 8 2
1982
1983
1983
1983
1983P
1 9 83P
A ug. 1 9 8 3
to
to
Sept. 1 9 8 3
P R IVA T E SECTOR (in current d o llars)
S e pt. 1 9 8 3
1 5 0 .3
1 5 5 .0
1 5 4 .6
1 5 6 .2
3 .9
1 6 2 .8
1 6 7 .6
1 6 7 .1
1 6 8 .3
3 .4
C o n s t r u c t i o n ............................................
(1)
1 4 4 .2
1 4 4 .9
1 4 6 .4
2 .3
( 1)
1 4 1 .6
( 1)
1 4 3 ,1
1 4 4 .5
1 4 4 .6
M a n u f a c t u r i n g ......................
1 4 4 .0
1 4 4 .2
1 5 4 .8
1 5 8 .2
1 5 7 .5
1 5 8 .7
2 .6
1 5 4 .6
1 5 7 .7
1 5 7 .8
158 2
158 0
156 1
M in in g
...............................
T r a n s p o r t a tio n a n d p u b lic u t ilitie s
W h o le s a le a n d r e ta il tr a d e
. ,
F in a n c e , in s u r a n c e , a n d re a l e s ta te
S e r v i c e s ...............................
PR IVA TE SECTOR (in constant d o lla rs )
. . .
1 5 4 .8
155 2
(1 )
1 5 5 .0
rh
1 5 5 .9
(1 t
1 5 7 .2
1 5 6 .2
1 5 9 .4
5 .5
1 5 0 .1
1 5 6 .6
1 5 6 .8
157 9
1 5 2 .1
1 5 1 .8
1 5 3 .0
4 .5
1 4 6 .2
1 5 1 .2
1 5 1 .6
1 5 2 .2
1 5 9 .1
1 5 7 .9
1 5 9 .7
6 .1
( 1)
1 4 9 .6
1 5 4 .6
1 5 4 .6
1 5 6 .5
4 .6
1 4 9 .8
(1 )
1 5 4 .9
(1)
1 5 5 .5
( 1)
155 6
152 0
(1 \
152 Q
1 5 0 .6
1 5 5 .9
1 5 6 .6
9 3 .2
9 4 .3
9 3 .7
<2 >
<2 )
9 3 .1
9 4 .7
9 4 .8
94 7
9 4 .0
<2 )
2 N o t a v a ila b le ,
p =
p r e lim in a r y .
0 .6
n(h
144 8
1 5 1 .0
c y c le , ir r e g u la r c o m p o n e n ts , o r b o t h , a n d c o n s e q u e n t ly c a n n o t b e s e p a r a te d w ith s u ff ic ie n t p r e c is io n .
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
1 5 4 .6
1 4 6 .3
1T h ls s e r ie s Is n o t s e a s o n a lly a d ju s t e d b e c a u s e th e s e a s o n a l c o m p o n e n t Is s m a ll r e la tiv e t o th e t r e n d -
94
1 5 0 .0
ii i
/V i
.5
<2 )
16.
W eekly earnings, by industry division and m ajor m anufacturing group
[ G r o s s a v e r a g e s , p r o d u c t i o n o r n o n s u p e r v i s o r y w o r k e r s o n p r iv a t e n o n a g r i c u l t u r a l p a y r o lls ]
Annual averag e
198 2
1983
Industry d iv is io n and group
1981
198 2
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D ec.
Jan .
Feb.
M a r.
Apr.
May
June
July
A ug.P
S e pt.P
C u r r e n t d o l l a r s ...........................................................................
S 2 5 5 .2 0
$ 2 6 6 .9 2
$ 2 7 0 .0 5
$ 2 7 0 .3 1
$ 2 7 1 .0 1
$ 2 7 3 .7 0
$ 2 7 3 .3 4
$ 2 7 0 .8 6
$ 2 7 4 .1 3
$ 2 7 5 .5 2
$ 2 7 8 .1 5
$ 2 8 0 .5 4
$ 2 8 3 .2 0
$ 2 8 1 .0 8
$ 2 8 6 .2 8
S e a s o n a lly a d j u s t e d .........................................................
( 1)
1 7 0 .1 3
( 1)
1 6 7 .8 7
2 6 9 .0 0
2 6 9 .2 7
2 6 9 .9 7
2 7 2 .1 4
2 7 6 .5 9
272 90
2 7 5 .2 7
2 7 7 .4 6
2 7 9 75
2 8 0 .8 0
2 8 1 .0 5
2 7 9 .3 0
2 8 4 .4 2
1 6 7 .4 2
1 6 7 .0 6
1 6 7 .8 1
1 7 0 .1 1
1 6 9 .8 8
1 6 8 .2 4
1 6 9 .8 5
1 6 9 .5 5
1 7 0 .3 3
1 7 1 .3 7
1 7 2 .3 7
1 7 0 .3 5
(1)
M IN IN G
4 3 8 .7 5
4 5 9 .2 3
4 6 1 .5 8
4 5 9 .2 2
4 5 8 .0 2
4 6 5 .4 7
4 7 6 .4 3
4 6 4 .6 3
4 6 7 .7 4
4 6 9 .2 5
4 7 2 .6 4
4 7 8 .1 3
4 7 5 .3 1
4 8 0 .3 8
4 8 6 .4 9
C O N STR U C TIO N
39 9 26
4 2 6 .4 5
4 3 3 .2 1
4 4 0 .7 5
4 2 3 .0 9
4 4 0 .1 3
4 4 0 .9 6
4 2 4 .8 0
4 3 4 .9 8
4 3 6 .7 3
4 4 1 .3 2
4 4 4 .9 5
4 5 0 .0 0
4 4 9 .9 2
4 5 6 .4 4
3 6 2 .6 4
PR IVA TE SECTOR
C o n s t a n t ( 1 9 7 7 ) d o l l a r s ....................................................
M A N U FA C TU R IN G
C u r r e n t d o l l a r s ..........................................................................
3 1 8 .0 0
3 3 0 .6 5
3 3 4 .1 5
3 3 3 .8 4
3 3 8 .3 7
3 4 4 .6 0
3 4 1 .4 3
C o n s t a n t ( 1 9 7 7 ) d o l l a r s ....................................................
2 1 2 .0 0
2 0 7 .9 6
2 0 7 .1 6
2 0 6 .3 3
2 0 9 .5 2
2 1 4 .1 7
2 1 2 .2 0
3 4 3 .3 1
3 5 6 .0 6
3 5 7 .6 3
3 5 7 .9 0
3 6 3 .1 3
3 7 1 .4 5
3 6 7 62
D u ra b le goods
'
3 3 9 .5 0
3 4 6 .1 0
3 4 9 .0 5
3 5 0 .3 2
3 5 5 .0 4
3 5 4 .4 0
3 5 3 .3 6
2 1 0 .8 7
2 1 4 .4 4
2 1 4 .8 0
2 1 4 .5 3
2 1 6 .8 8
2 1 5 .7 0
2 1 4 .1 6
( 1)
3 6 6 .8 1
3 7 2 .5 3
3 7 5 .1 9
3 7 7 .3 4
3 8 2 .3 0
3 7 9 .7 6
3 7 9 .2 0
3 9 0 .9 9
L u m b e r a n d w o o d p r o d u c t s ............................................
2 7 0 .5 1
2 8 3 .4 8
2 9 6 .0 6
2 8 9 .9 3
2 9 2 .9 7
3 1 2 .7 6
3 2 0 .2 8
F u r n it u r e a n d f ix t u r e s
2 2 6 .9 4
2 3 4 .7 3
2 4 1 .2 8
2 4 3 .2 0
2 4 4 .3 4
2 5 0 .0 0
2 4 3 .3 8
2 4 3 .1 0
2 5 1 .2 9
2 5 3 .8 9
2 5 4 .2 8
2 6 3 .3 4
2 5 8 .6 9
2 6 6 .1 3
2 6 8 .8 0
...............................
3 3 5 .7 6
3 5 4 .4 0
3 6 5 .7 2
3 6 6 .6 2
3 6 6 .1 2
3 6 6 .8 3
3 6 4 .9 1
3 5 8 .5 4
3 6 8 .8 5
3 7 4 .6 4
3 8 0 .8 8
3 9 0 .6 9
3 9 1 .3 5
3 9 1 .5 3
3 9 7 .2 0
4 7 0 .4 1
.........................................................
S t o n e , c la y , a n d g la s s p r o d u c ts
2 9 3 .7 0
3 0 0 .2 9
2 9 9 .5 4
3 0 2 .5 9
3 0 8 .0 5
3 1 3 .5 8
3 1 8 .6 8
3 1 7 .9 3
P r im a r y m e ta l i n d u s t r i e s .....................................................
4 3 7 .8 1
4 3 7 .3 4
4 3 8 .5 2
4 3 1 .3 0
4 4 0 .0 7
4 5 0 .4 1
4 5 0 .8 4
4 5 0 .8 2
4 5 6 .2 3
4 5 1 .1 3
4 5 2 .3 3
4 5 4 .8 2
4 6 0 .4 9
4 5 9 .1 0
F a b r ic a te d m e ta l p r o d u c t s ................................................
3 3 0 .0 6
3 4 4 .1 8
3 4 5 .3 2
3 4 6 .0 4
3 5 0 .6 6
3 5 9 .3 0
3 5 4 .7 1
3 5 4 .3 7
3 6 1 .1 0
3 6 4 .6 1
3 6 6 .8 3
3 7 1 .6 9
3 6 5 .8 2
3 7 0 .3 7
3 8 0 79
M a c h in e r y e x c e p t e le c t r ic a l
3 6 0 .3 3
3 6 8 .8 1
367 93
3 6 5 .9 8
3 7 1 .4 5
3 8 0 .9 7
3 7 2 .2 4
3 7 1 .9 4
3 7 7 .4 0
3 7 9 .2 0
3 8 2 .6 4
3 8 8 .0 9
3 8 6 .9 7
3 8 7 .2 8
3 9 6 .9 8
............................................
E le c tr ic a n d e le c t r o n ic e q u i p m e n t ...............................
3 0 4 .8 0
3 2 2 .6 5
3 2 5 .5 9
3 2 9 .6 7
3 3 4 .6 2
3 4 2 .9 5
3 3 8 .6 4
3 3 6 .4 1
3 5 0 .2 1
3 4 9 .9 2
3 5 8 .6 9
T r a n s p o r t a tio n e q u i p m e n t ................................................
4 2 4 .9 5
4 5 0 .3 6
4 4 3 .9 8
4 5 7 .2 5
4 6 7 .2 1
4 7 4 .3 5
4 6 8 .5 4
4 6 9 .9 4
4 8 0 .2 8
4 8 4 .2 6
4 8 2 .6 9
4 9 1 .9 5
4 8 4 .5 5
4 7 6 .1 9
5 0 4 .2 9
I n s t r u m e n t s a n d r e la te d p r o d u c t s ...............................
2 9 9 .7 7
3 2 2 .3 8
3 2 8 .7 8
3 2 7 .1 0
3 3 1 .5 7
3 3 8 .5 5
3 3 7 .6 4
3 3 5 .8 1
3 4 0 .4 9
3 3 9 .2 5
3 4 1 .7 4
3 4 0 .9 0
3 4 4 .5 1
3 4 0 .8 5
3 4 7 .8 4
2 6 4 .6 2
2 6 4 .9 1
2 6 4 .6 2
2 6 5 .8 8
2 6 9 .1 0
M is c e lla n e o u s m a n u f a c t u r i n g .......................................
3 4 4 .0 0
3 4 4 .8 6
3 4 5 .7 2
3 5 0 .3 8
2 3 1 .6 4
2 4 7 .5 6
2 5 0 .9 0
2 5 3 .5 0
2 5 6 .5 0
2 6 0 .1 3
2 6 0 .0 6
2 5 3 .7 2
2 6 3 .2 5
2 6 3 .6 4
2 8 0 .7 4
2 9 6 .8 3
3 0 4 .1 9
3 0 1 .0 8
3 0 5 .7 4
3 1 0 .8 5
3 0 7 .6 4
3 0 5 .2 2
3 1 1 .2 0
3 1 3 .9 7
3 1 5 .5 8
3 1 9 .1 9
............................................
2 9 5 .3 7
3 1 0 .8 7
3 1 5 .6 1
3 1 2 .0 5
3 1 7 .6 0
3 1 9 .1 8
3 1 5 .5 1
3 1 2 .2 4
3 1 6 ,6 1
3 1 8 .9 8
3 2 1 .4 7
3 2 5 .1 7
3 2 2 .7 2
3 2 5 .2 0
3 2 7 .6 4
T o b a c c o m a n u f a c t u r e s .........................................................
3 4 4 .5 4
3 6 9 .6 8
3 7 9 .1 4
3 7 0 .5 0
3 8 6 .0 8
3 6 4 .9 8
3 6 0 .2 6
3 3 9 .6 4
3 7 8 .6 1
3 9 5 .7 5
4 0 1 .6 8
4 2 0 .0 4
3 9 8 .9 1
3 8 4 .6 5
37 2 99
N o n d u ra b le goods
F o o d a n d k in d r e d p r o d u c ts
T e x t ile m i ll p r o d u c t s .............................................................
A p p a r e l a n d o t h e r t e x t ile p r o d u c ts
. . . . . . .
P a p e r a n d a llie d p r o d u c t s ................................................
P r in t in g a n d p u b lis h in g
.....................................................
2 1 8 .5 9
2 1 8 .6 3
2 2 3 .8 5
2 2 7 .5 6
2 3 1 .4 7
2 3 6 .7 7
2 3 7 .1 2
2 3 6 .0 7
2 4 2 .5 7
2 4 6 .8 3
2 4 8 .6 7
2 5 3 .1 8
3 1 9 .5 3
2 4 8 .0 3
3 1 9 .5 9
3 2 4 .4 0
2 5 5 .0 3
2 5 8 .5 5
1 7 7 .4 3
1 8 0 .4 4
1 8 3 .5 7
1 8 3 .9 1
1 8 4 .9 7
1 8 6 .3 8
1 8 8 .6 8
1 8 5 .4 8
1 9 0 .2 8
1 9 2 .0 7
1 9 2 .4 1
1 9 6 .1 8
1 9 3 .1 4
1 9 6 .1 8
1 9 8 .9 1
3 6 5 .5 0
3 8 9 .5 8
4 0 2 .5 3
3 9 7 .4 0
4 0 2 .2 4
4 1 0 .1 3
4 0 2 .4 1
3 9 6 .6 2
4 0 6 .1 4
4 1 0 .1 8
4 1 5 .9 4
4 2 5 .1 4
4 2 9 .5 6
4 2 7 .4 3
4 3 6 .9 0
3 2 9 .8 2
3 3 2 .7 2
3 4 1 .1 0
3 3 2 .7 9
3 3 0 .8 3
3 3 8 .6 3
C h e m ic a ls a n d a llie d p r o d u c t s .......................................
3 7 9 .3 9
4 0 7 .3 6
4 1 9 .8 3
4 1 6 .9 8
4 2 0 .6 6
4 2 7 .2 5
4 2 1 .8 7
4 2 5 .7 7
4 2 8 .0 7
4 3 2 .8 5
4 3 5 .7 5
4 4 0 .7 9
4 4 0 .1 3
4 3 8 .8 4
4 4 8 .5 1
P e t r o le u m a n d c o a l p r o d u c t s ........................................
4 9 1 .6 2
3 0 5 .4 9
5 4 6 .9 9
3 2 4 .6 3
5 7 2 .4 9
3 3 1 .4 5
5 5 5 .5 9
5 6 4 .2 6
5 6 3 .0 5
5 7 2 .4 6
5 7 3 .7 3
5 8 4 .3 2
5 8 1 .2 3
5 7 5 .7 3
5 7 9 .4 8
5 8 4 .7 6
5 7 0 .7 1
5 8 6 .5 3
2 8 8 .9 5
3 0 2 .9 4
3 0 8 .0 9
3 0 4 .1 8
3 0 9 .2 8
3 1 9 .5 6
3 1 7 .1 9
3 1 4 .0 3
3 2 1 .5 5
3 2 6 .7 5
3 2 7 .5 7
3 2 8 .7 5
3 2 9 .6 5
3 3 0 .8 4
3 3 7 .7 4
1 8 3 .1 3
1 8 9 .3 9
1 9 2 .0 6
1 8 9 .7 3
1 9 4 .2 2
1 9 6 .3 8
1 9 6 .9 0
1 9 0 .3 0
1 9 7 .0 6
2 0 1 .4 8
2 0 4 .4 2
2 0 7 .5 2
2 0 7 .0 0
2 0 7 .3 5
2 1 1 .1 0
TR A N S P O R TA TIO N AN D PUB LIC U TILIT IE S
3 8 2 .1 8
4 0 1 .7 0
4 0 5 .8 5
4 0 6 .6 2
4 1 3 .0 1
4 1 6 .3 0
4 0 9 .4 3
4 1 1 .6 5
4 1 3 .3 2
4 1 3 .7 9
4 1 5 .6 4
4 1 9 .5 4
4 2 5 .7 1
4 1 9 .4 4
4 3 0 .8 1
W HO LE SALE A N D RETAIL TRADE
1 9 0 .6 2
1 9 8 .1 0
2 0 0 .3 0
1 9 9 .3 9
1 9 9 .7 1
2 0 3 .1 5
2 0 1 .5 9
1 9 9 .3 1
2 0 1 .9 0
2 0 3 .1 8
2 0 5 .4 3
2 0 7 .3 7
2 1 0 .6 0
2 0 9 .3 0
208 63
W HO LE SALE TRA DE
2 9 1 .0 6
3 0 7 .9 7
3 1 1 .0 4
3 1 3 .0 1
3 1 3 .3 9
3 1 7 .3 4
3 1 8 .2 7
3 1 3 .8 1
3 1 6 .7 4
3 1 9 .4 2
3 2 1 .8 6
3 2 3 .1 5
3 2 6 .7 0
3 2 5 .0 8
3 2 7 .7 9
RETAIL TRADE
1 5 8 .0 3
1 6 3 .5 5
1 6 5 .5 5
1 6 4 .7 9
1 6 4 .5 8
1 6 8 .9 7
1 6 4 .9 8
1 6 3 .3 0
1 6 6 .4 2
1 6 7 .2 9
1 6 9 .5 9
1 7 1 .8 7
1 7 5 .0 3
1 7 3 .8 5
1 7 1 .9 5
FINANC E. IN S U R A N C E . AND REAL ESTATE
2 2 9 .0 5
245.44
249.09
252.31
253.40
254.46
262.44
260.64
258.84
2 6 1 .0 0
265.35
~ 2 6 2 .0 9
2 6 4 .9 9
2 6 1 .0 0
2 6 3 ,5 2
SER VIC ES
2 0 8 .9 7
2 2 4 .9 4
2 2 8 .5 7
2 2 8 .8 0
2 3 0 .1 0
2 3 2 ,1 1
2 3 4 .7 9
2 3 2 .9 6
2 3 3 .7 4
2 3 4 .7 2
2 3 6 .4 2
2 3 6 .8 8
2 3 7 .6 6
2 3 7 .6 6
2 3 9 .1 1
3 3 7 .7 2
3 3 7 .5 7
3 3 8 .8 4
3 4 1 .2 5
3 4 4 .2 2
3 5 0 .5 8
R u b b e r a n d m i s c e lla n e o u s
p la s t ic s p r o d u c ts
.............................................................
L e a th e r a n d le a th e r p r o d u c ts
.......................................
1 N o t a v a ila b le ,
p =
p r e lim in a r y .
17.
Indexes of diffusion: industries in which em ploym ent increased
[In p e rc e n t]
T im e
Year
span
Jan.
Feb.
M a r.
Apr.
M ay
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D ec.
O ver
1981
. . . .
5 7 .8
5 2 .4
5 2 .2
6 5 .6
6 0 .2
5 8 .9
6 2 .6
4 9 .5
4 2 .2
3 3 .3
2 9 .3
3 0 .9
1 -m o n th
1982
. . .
2 8 .5
4 5 .4
3 6 .0
3 9 .0
4 7 .6
3 2 .8
3 8 .4
3 7 .1
3 4 .1
29 3
3 2 .0
4 2 .2
span
1983
. . . .
5 6 .5
4 5 .7
6 2 ,4
6 9 .1
7 1 .0
6 4 .5
6 8 .5
P 6 7 .7
P 5 8 .9
-
1981
. . . .
5 8 .3
5 4 .6
5 9 .1
65 9
6 7 .5
6 6 .7
6 0 .5
5 0 .5
3 3 .3
3 0 .1
2 4 .5
23 4
2 5 .5
2 4 .7
4 0 .6
O ver
3 -m o n th
1982
span
1983
O ver
1981
.
. . . .
. . . .
2 5 .3
2 8 .8
3 2 .0
3 4 .1
3 2 .5
3 3 .6
2 7 .2
2 7 .2
2 6 .1
4 5 .4
5 5 .1
6 5 .6
7 5 .8
7 6 .1
7 7 .2
P 7 4 .7
P 7 6 .9
-
6 8 .5
6 5 .3
6 3 .7
-
-
-
-
6 9 .4
6 4 .2
5 8 .6
4 5 .7
3 4 .4
2 9 .6
2 4 .2
2 5 .0
22 0
6 - m o n th
1982
2 0 .2
2 3 .7
2 5 .3
2 9 .8
2 6 .1
2 6 .1
2 3 .4
1 9 .1
2 1 .2
2 6 .1
2 6 .6
35 8
span
1983
. . . .
5 0 .5
6 3 .2
7 3 .4
7 6 .3
P 7 9 .3
P 8 0 .9
O ver
1981
. . . .
7 4 .5
7 1 .2
7 0 .4
5 8 .1
4 7 .6
4 1 .4
3 4 .9
2 9 .8
2 7 .4
2 3 .7
2 5 .3
2 3 .1
1 9 .4
1 8 .3
2 0 .7
2 0 .7
2 2 .8
2 4 .2
3 1 .5
3 7 .6
4 4 .1
—
—
—
—
—
—
.
1 2 -m o n th
1982
. . . .
2 2 .0
2 0 .7
1 8 .0
span
1983
. . . .
4 8 .9
P 5 7 .3
P 6 1 .8
p -
p r e lim in a r y .
NO TE:
-
-
-
-
-
-
a re c o u n t e d a s r is in g . ) D a ta a r e c e n t e r e d w i t h i n t h e s p a n s . S e e t h e " D e f i n i t i o n s ” in t h is s e c tio n .
F ig u r e s a r e t h e p e r c e n t o f in d u s t r ie s w ith e m p lo y m e n t r is in g . ( H a lf o f t h e u n c h a n g e d c o m p o n e n ts
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
95
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE DATA
persons in unemployment insurance programs to indicate they are out of
work and wish to begin receiving compensation. A claimant who continued
to be unemployed a full week is then counted in the insured unemployment
figure. The rate of insured unemployment expresses the number of in
sured unemployed as a percent of the average insured employment in a
12-month period.
are compiled monthly
by the Employment and Training Administration of the U.S. De
partment of Labor from monthly reports of unemployment insur
ance activity prepared by State agencies. Railroad unemployment
insurance data are prepared by the U.S. Railroad Retirement Board.
N
a t i o
n
a l
u
n e m
p l o
y m
e n t
in s u r a n c e
d
a t a
Definitions
Average weekly seasonally adjusted insured unemployment data are
computed by BLS' Weekly Seasonal Adjustment program. This procedure
incorporated the X -l 1 Variant of the Census Method II Seasonal Adjust
ment program.
Data for all programs represent an unduplicated count of insured un
employment under State programs, Unemployment Compensation for ExServicemen, and Unemployment Compensation for Federal Employees,
and the Railroad Insurance Act.
An application for benefits is filed by a railroad worker at the beginning
o f his first period of unemployment in a benefit year; no application is
required for subsequent periods in the same year. Number of payments
are payments made in 14-day registration periods. The average amount
of benefit payment is an average for all compensable periods, not adjusted
for recovery of overpayments or settlement of underpayments. However,
total benefits paid have been adjusted.
Under both State and Federal unemployment insurance programs for
civilian employees, insured workers must report the completion of at least
1 week o f unemployment before they are defined as unemployed. Persons
not covered by unemployment insurance (about 10 percent of the labor
force) and those who have exhausted or not yet earned benefit rights are
excluded from the scope of the survey. Initial claims are notices filed by
18.
U nem ploym ent insurance and em ploym ent service operations
[ A l l i t e m s e x c e p t a v e r a g e b e n e f it s a m o u n t s a r e in t h o u s a n d s ]
198 2
1983
Ite m
Aug.
Nov.
Oct.
Sept.
Jan.
Dec.
M a r.
Feb.
Apr.
M ay
June
July
A ug. F
A ll p r o g r a m s :
In s u r e d u n e m p l o y m e n t .......................................
4 ,3 9 8
4 ,2 8 3
4 ,3 9 1
4 ,6 3 5
5 ,0 7 4
5 .4 5 9
5 ,4 3 7
5 .1 3 4
4 ,6 4 2
3 .9 4 7
3 ,4 8 1
3 ,2 7 5
2 ,9 1 7
2 .3 5 8
2 342
2 ,4 4 3
2 .6 6 1
3 ,0 8 0
3 ,1 4 3
2 ,0 6 5
2 ,0 7 5
1 ,8 7 4
1 ,6 6 6
r 1 ,7 4 0
1 ,8 0 4
1 ,6 6 9
S ta te u n e m p lo y m e n t in s u r a n c e p r o g r a m : 1
I n itia l c la i m s 2
.............................................................
I n s u r e d u n e m p lo y m e n t (a v e ra g e
w e e k ly v o l u m e ) .....................................................
3 .8 3 1
3 ,7 1 2
3 .8 2 8
4 ,1 5 6
4 ,5 8 1
4 ,9 2 3
4 ,4 0 1
4 ,7 5 9
3 .9 0 6
3 ,3 6 1
3 ,0 6 3
3 ,0 4 9
2 ,7 6 6
R a te o f in s u r e d u n e m p l o y m e n t ......................
4 .4
4 .2
4 .4
4 .7
5 .2
5 .6
5 .5
5 .0
4 .5
3 .9
3 .5
3 .5
3 .2
W e e k s o f u n e m p lo y m e n t c o m p e n s a t e d . . .
1 5 ,0 1 5
1 4 ,5 4 7
1 3 ,7 8 6
1 5 ,1 7 0
1 7 ,8 7 3
1 8 ,3 0 7
1 6 ,8 9 5
1 9 .5 2 9
1 4 ,9 8 6
1 3 ,1 3 3
r 1 2 .8 1 9
1 0 ,9 5 9
1 1 ,3 0 6
A v e r a g e w e e k ly b e n e f it a m o u n t
...............................
$ 1 1 8 .9 7
$ 1 2 0 .7 8
$ 1 2 2 .8 1
$ 1 2 3 .4 3
$ 1 2 3 .4 2
$ 1 2 4 .2 9
$ 1 2 4 .4 7
$ 1 2 5 .4 7
$ 1 2 4 .8 5
$ 1 2 4 .4 9
r$ 1 23 44
$ 1 2 1 .5 9
$ 1 2 1 .4 5
................................................
$ 1 ,7 4 6 ,1 9 5
$ 1 ,7 1 0 ,5 7 3
$ 1 ,6 4 7 ,3 4 3
$ 1 ,8 2 0 ,0 1 9
$ 2 ,1 3 5 ,3 0 2
$ 2 , 2 0 5 ,5 5 1
$ 2 ,0 5 2 ,4 1 5
$ 2 ,3 6 7 ,7 5 2
$ 1 ,8 1 6 ,5 3 9
$ 1 ,5 8 7 ,8 8 8
$ 1 ,5 4 9 ,7 5 8
$ 1 ,2 9 8 ,1 8 9
$ 1 ,3 3 7 ,8 1 7
2 ,8 1 4
2 ,9 0 2
2 ,6 8 8
2 ,6 8 0
2 ,5 8 6
2 .1 8 7
2 ,1 3 8
2 ,1 4 8
1 ,9 5 2
1 ,9 9 3
1 ,8 3 6
1 ,5 7 4
1 ,9 9 2
w e e k ly v o l u m e ) ....................................................
4 ,1 3 7
4 ,4 4 6
4 .6 8 0
4 ,6 1 8
4 ,3 5 5
3 ,9 8 0
3 .9 7 9
3 ,8 8 4
3 ,7 7 4
3 ,5 3 8
3 ,3 0 1
3 ,0 8 6
2 ,9 8 7
R a te o f in s u r e d u n e m p l o y m e n t ......................
4 .7
5 ,1
5 .3
5 .3
5 .0
4 .6
4 .6
4 .5
4 .3
4 ,1
3 .8
3 .6
3 .5
11
11
10
17
24
21
16
18
15
14
16
16
19
7
8
9
14
26
37
37
34
30
26
25
25
26
f o r t o ta l u n e m p lo y m e n t
T o ta l b e n e f it s p a id
S ta te u n e m p lo y m e n t in s u r a n c e p r o g r a m : 1
( S e a s o n a lly a d ju s te d d a ta )
I n itia l c la i m s 2
.............................................................
I n s u r e d u n e m p lo y m e n t (a v e ra g e
U n e m p lo y m e n t c o m p e n s a tio n f o r e x s e r v ic e m e n : 2
I n itia l c la i m s 1
.............................................................
I n s u r e d u n e m p lo y m e n t (a v e ra g e
w e e k ly v o l u m e ) .....................................................
W e e k s o f u n e m p lo y m e n t c o m p e n s a t e d . ..
T o ta l b e n e f it s p a id
................................................
24
25
28
33
90
132
143
156
117
104
107
94
108
$ 2 ,7 9 3
$ 2 ,9 0 0
$ 3 ,3 6 6
$ 4 ,0 0 6
$ 1 1 ,1 9 1
$ 1 6 ,8 0 7
$ 1 8 ,0 3 2
$ 1 9 ,5 8 8
$ 1 4 ,7 7 6
$ 1 3 ,1 1 1
r$ 1 3 ,5 8 8
$ 1 2 ,1 1 8
$ 1 3 ,8 5 7
12
13
16
14
15
16
10
11
10
9
13
12
11
27
26
28
31
3>
35
33
31
26
22
21
23
22
U n e m p lo y m e n t c o m p e n s a tio n f o r
F e d e r a l c iv ilia n e m p lo y e e s : 4
I n itia l c l a i m s ..................................................................
I n s u r e d u n e m p lo y m e n t (a v e ra g e
w e e k ly v o l u m e ) ....................................................
W e e k s o f u n e m p lo y m e n t c o m p e n s a te d . .
T o ta l b e n e f it s p a id
................................................
118
1 11
110
126
146
142
1 31
146
109
93
90
85
94
$ 1 3 ,1 4 0
$ 1 2 ,3 0 3
$ 1 2 ,1 4 4
$ 1 4 ,0 2 3
$ 1 6 ,1 1 4
$ 1 6 ,0 4 5
$ 1 5 ,0 8 3
$ 1 6 ,8 7 1
$ 1 2 ,4 2 2
$ 1 0 ,6 0 3
r$ 1 0 ,2 7 2
$ 9 ,6 4 0
$ 1 0 ,7 6 7
R a ilr o a d u n e m p lo y m e n t in s u r a n c e :
A p p l i c a t i o n s .................................................................
68
14
55
61
w e e k ly v o l u m e ) .....................................................
N u m b e r o f p a y m e n t s ............................................
17
17
20
7
8
94
4
30
55
14
81
83
102
72
65
79
90
49
49
46
100
137
162
172
219
158
169
172
183
123
92
107
. . ,
$ 2 0 2 .5 4
$ 2 1 6 .1 4
$ 2 1 2 .3 5
$ 2 1 6 .5 5
$ 2 1 7 .0 0
$ 2 2 0 .3 2
$ 2 1 4 .5 4
$ 2 1 3 .4 4
$ 2 0 3 .8 7
$ 2 1 5 .1 5
$ 2 0 3 .5 4
$ 1 9 9 .8 7
$ 2 1 4 .2 1
................................................
$ 1 7 ,9 9 8
$ 3 1 ,1 2 3
$ 3 1 ,6 3 8
$ 3 5 ,0 6 1
$ 3 9 ,5 0 0
$ 4 4 ,5 1 4
$ 3 3 ,1 0 0
$ 3 6 ,2 4 3
$ 2 7 ,7 8 3
$ 2 9 ,4 1 1
$ 1 4 ,9 8 4
$ 1 7 ,5 5 1
$ 2 1 ,7 8 9
A v e r a g e a m o u n t o f b e n e f it p a y m e n t
T o ta l b e n e f it s p a id
20
82
(
I n s u r e d u n e m p lo y m e n t ( a v e ra g e
159
E m p lo y m e n t s e r v i c e : 5
N e w a p p lic a tio n s a n d r e n e w a l s ......................
N o n f a r m p la c e m e n t s
............................................
1 4 ,3 2 0
4 ,5 2 7
8 ,3 8 1
1 1 ,9 8 7
2 ,8 0 4
642
1 ,1 8 4
1 ,9 2 1
1 1 n itia l c la im s a n d S ta te in s u r e d u n e m p lo y m e n t in c lu d e d a ta u n d e r t h e p r o g r a m f o r P u e r to R ic a n
5 C u m u la t iv e t o ta l f o r fis c a l y e a r ( O c to b e r 1 - S e p te m b e r 3 0 ) . D a ta c o m p u te d q u a r te r ly .
^ E x c l u d e T t r a n s i t io n c la im s u n d e r S ta te p r o g r a m s .
E x c l u d e s d a ta o n c la im s a n d p a y m e n ts m a d e jo i n t l y w ith o t h e r p r o g r a m s .
N ° J E r e N m in ^
re v ^ s e rT 3 ^
4 E x c lu d e s d a ta o r c la im s a n d p a y m e n ts m a d e jo i n t l y w ith S ta te p r o g r a m s .
96
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^
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V ' r 9 i" ' S'a n d S in C lU d e d ' D a S h e S ' n d ' C a te ^
a V a i' a b 'e '
PRICE DATA
P
are gathered by the Bureau of Labor Statistics from
retail and primary markets in the United States. Price indexes are
given in relation to a base period (1967 = 100, unless otherwise
noted).
r ic e
d
a t a
Definitions
The Consumer Price Index is a monthly statistical measure of the average
change in prices in a fixed market basket of goods and services. Effective
with the January 1978 index, the Bureau of Labor Statistics began pub
lishing CPI’s for two groups of the population. It introduced a CPI for All
Urban Consumers, covering 80 percent of the total noninstitutional pop
ulation, and revised the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers,
covering about half the new index population. The All Urban Consumers
index covers in addition to wage earners and clerical workers, professional,
managerial, and technical workers, the self-employed, short-term workers,
the unemployed, retirees, and others not in the labor force.
The CPI is based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, fuel, drugs,
transportation fares, doctors’ and dentists’ fees, and other goods and ser
vices that people buy for day-to-day living. The quantity and quality of
these items is kept essentially unchanged between major revisions so that
only price changes will be measured. Data are collected from more than
24,000 retail establishments and 24,000 tenants in 85 urban areas across
the country. All taxes directly associated with the purchase and use of
items are included in the index. Because the CPI’s are based on the ex
penditures o f two population groups in 1972-73, they may not accurately
reflect the experience of individual families and single persons with dif
ferent buying habits.
Though the CPI is often called the “ Cost-of-Living Index,” it measures
only price change, which is just one of several important factors affecting
living costs. Area indexes do not measure differences in the level of prices
among cities. They only measure the average change in prices for each
area since the base period.
Producer Price Indexes measure average changes in prices received in
primary markets o f the United States by products of commodities in all
stages o f processing. The sample used for calculating these indexes contains
about 2,800 commodities and about 10,000 quotations per month selected
to represent the movement of prices of all commodities produced in the
manufacturing, agriculture, forestry, fishing, mining, gas and electricity,
and public utilities sectors. The universe includes all commodities produced
or imported for sale in commercial transactions in primary markets in the
United States.
Producer Price Indexes can be organized by stage of processing or by
commodity. The stage o f processing structure organizes products by degree
of fabrication (that is, finished goods, intermediate or semifinished goods,
and crude materials). The commodity structure organizes products by sim
ilarity o f end-use or material composition.
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To the extent possible, prices used in calculating Producer Price Indexes
apply to the first significant commercial transaction in the United States,
from the production or central marketing point. Price data are generally
collected monthly, primarily by mail questionnaire. Most prices are ob
tained directly from producing companies on a voluntary and confidential
basis. Prices generally are reported for the Tuesday of the week containing
the 13th day of the month.
In calculating Producer Price Indexes, price changes for the various
commodities are averaged together with implicit quantity weights repre
senting their importance in the total net selling value of all commodities
as of 1972. The detailed data are aggregated to obtain indexes for stage
of processing groupings, commodity groupings, durability of product
groupings, and a number of special composite groupings.
Price indexes for the output of selected SIC industries measure av
erage price changes in commodities produced by particular industries, as
defined in the Standard Industrial Classification Manual 1972 (Washing
ton, U.S. Office of Management and Budget, 1972). These indexes are
derived from several price series, combined to match the economic activity
o f the specified industry and weighted by the value of shipments in the
industry. They use data from comprehensive industrial censuses conducted
by the U.S. Bureau of the Census and the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Notes on the data
Regional CPI's cross classified by population size were introduced in
the May 1978 Review. These indexes enable users in local areas for which
an index is not published to get a better approximation of the CPI for their
area by using the appropriate population size class measure for their region.
The cross-classified indexes are published bimonthly. (See table 20.)
For details concerning the 1978 revision of the CPI, see The Consumer
Price Index: Concepts and Content Over the Years. Report 517, revised
edition (Bureau of Labor Statistics, May 1978).
As of January 1976, the Producer Price Index incorporated a revised
weighting structure reflecting 1972 values of shipments.
Additional data and analyses of price changes are provided in the CPI
Detailed Report and Producer Prices and Price Indexes, both monthly
publications of the Bureau.
For a discussion of the general method of computing producer, and
industry price indexes, see BLS Handbook of Methods, Bulletin 2134-1
(Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1982), chapter 7. For consumer prices, see
BLS Handbook of Methods for Surveys and Studies (1976), chapter 13.
See also John F. Early, “ Improving the measurement of producer price
change. Monthly Labor Review, April 1978. For industry prices, see also
Bennett R. Moss, “ Industry and Sector Price Indexes,” Monthly Labor
Review, August 1965.
97
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • Current Labor Statistics: Consumer Prices
19.
C onsum er Price Index for Urban W age Earners and C lerical W orkers, annual averages and changes, 1 9 6 7 -8 2
[1967 = 100]
Food and
A ll item s
A p p arel and
Housing
b everag es
T ran sp o rtatio n
upkeep
M e d ic a l care
O the r goods
E n te rta in m e n t
and s e rv ic e s
Year
Index
1967
..........................
Percent
Index
change
1 0 0 .0
Percent
change
1 0 0 .0
Index
Percent
change
1 0 0 .0
Index
Percent
Index
change
1 0 0 .0
P ercent
change
1 0 0 .0
Index
P ercen t
change
1 0 0 .0
In d ex
P ercent
change
1 0 0 .0
Index
P e rcent
c hange
1 0 0 .0
1968
..........................
1 0 4 .2
4 .2
1 0 3 .6
3 .6
1 0 4 .0
4 .0
1 0 5 .4
5 .4
1 0 3 .2
3 .2
1 0 6 .1
6 .1
1 0 5 .7
5 .7
105 2
5 .2
1969
...........................
1 0 9 .8
5 .4
1 0 8 .8
5 .0
1 1 0 .4
6 .2
1 1 1 .5
5 .8
1 0 7 .2
3 .9
1 1 3 .4
6 .9
1 1 1 .0
5 .0
1 1 0 .4
4 .9
1970
...........................
1 1 6 .3
5 .9
1 1 4 .7
5 .4
1 1 8 .2
7 .1
1 1 6 .1
4 .1
1 1 2 .7
5 .1
1 2 0 .6
6 .3
1 1 6 .7
5 .1
1 1 5 .8
5 .8
1971
...........................
1 2 1 .3
4 .3
1 1 8 .3
3 .1
1 2 3 .4
4 .4
1 1 9 .8
3 .3
1972
...........................
1 2 5 .3
3 .3
1 2 3 .2
4 .1
1 2 8 .1
3 .8
1 2 2 .3
2 .1
1 1 9 .9
1 .1
1 3 2 .5
3 .2
1 2 6 .5
2 .9
T 2 7 .5
4 .2
1973
...........................
1 3 3 .1
6 .2
1 3 9 .5
1 3 .2
1 3 3 .7
4 .4
1 2 6 .8
3 .7
1 2 3 .8
3 .3
1 3 7 .7
3 .9
1 3 0 .0
2 .8
1 3 2 .5
3 .9
1974
..........................
1 4 7 .7
1 1 .0
1 5 8 .7
1 3 .8
1 4 8 .8
1 1 .3
1 3 6 .2
7 .4
1 3 7 .7
1 1 .2
1 5 0 .5
9 .3
1 3 9 .8
7 .5
1 4 2 .0
7 .2
1975
..........................
1 6 1 .2
9 .1
1 7 2 .1
8 .4
1 6 4 .5
1 0 .6
1 4 2 .3
4 .5
1 5 0 .6
9 .4
1 6 8 .6
1 2 .0
1 5 2 .2
8 .9
1 5 3 .9
8 .4
1 1 8 .6
5 .2
1 2 8 .4
6 .5
122 9
5 .3
1 2 2 .4
4 .8
1976
...........................
1 7 0 .5
5 .8
1 6 5 .5
9 .9
1 8 4 .7
95
1 5 9 .8
5 .0
1 6 2 .7
5 .7
1977
...........................
1 8 1 .5
6 .5
1 8 8 .0
8 .0
1 8 6 .5
6 .8
1 5 4 .2
4 .5
1 7 7 .2
7 .1
2 0 2 .4
9 .6
1 6 7 .7
4 .9
1 7 2 .2
5 .8
1978
..........................
1 9 5 .3
7 .6
2 0 6 .2
9 .7
2 0 2 .6
8 .6
1 5 9 .5
3 .4
1 8 5 .8
1 7 7 .4
3 .1
1 7 4 .6
6 .1
1 4 7 .6
3 .7
4 .9
2 1 9 .4
8 .4
1 7 6 .2
5 .1
1979
..........................
2 1 7 .7
1 1 .5
2 2 8 .7
1 0 .9
2 2 7 .5
1 2 .3
1 6 6 .4
4 .3
2 1 2 .8
1 4 .5
2 4 0 .1
9 .4
1 8 7 .6
6 .5
1 9 6 .3
7 .2
1980
..........................
2 4 7 .0
1 3 .5
2 4 8 .7
8 .7
2 6 3 .2
1 5 .7
1 7 7 .4
6 .6
2 5 0 .5
1 7 .7
2 8 7 .2
1 1 .3
203 7
8 .5
2 1 3 .6
8 .8
1981
..........................
2 7 2 .3
1 0 .2
2 6 7 .8
7 .7
293 2
1 1 ,4
1 8 6 .6
5 .2
2 8 1 .3
1 2 .3
2 9 5 .1
1 0 .4
2 1 9 .0
7 .5
2 3 3 .3
9 .2
1982
..........................
2 8 8 .6
6 .0
2 7 8 .5
4 .0
3 1 4 .7
7 .3
1 9 0 .9
2 .3
2 9 3 .1
4 .2
3 2 6 .9
1 0 .8
2 3 2 .4
6 .1
2 5 7 .0
1 0 .2
1 8 3 .2
6 .4
20. C onsum er Price Index for All Urban C onsum ers and revised CPI for Urban W age E arners and C lerical W orkers,
U.S. city average— general sum m ary and groups, subgroups, and selected item s
[1967 = 100 unless otherwise specified]
All U rban C onsu m ers
G en eral su m m ary
198 2
1982
Aug.
M a r.
Apr.
M ay
June
2 9 2 .8
2 9 3 .4
2 9 5 .5
2 9 7 .1
............................................................................................
2 7 9 .9
2 8 3 .2
2 8 4 .6
2 8 5 .0
......................................................................................................................
3 2 0 .1
3 1 8 .6
3 2 0 .3
A p p a r e l a n d u p k e e p ............................................................................................
1 9 1 .8
1 9 4 .5
1 9 5 .5
T r a n s p o r t a t i o n .............................................................................................................
2 9 6 .2
2 8 7 .4
2 9 2 .3
2 9 6 .2
M e d ic a l c a r e .............................................................................................................
3 3 3 .3
3 5 2 .3
3 5 3 .5
3 5 4 .3
A l l it e m s
F o o d a n d b e v e ra g e s
H o u s in g
E n t e r t a in m e n t
U rban W a g e E arn ers and C le ric a l W o rke rs
1983
198 3
July
Aug.
Aug.
2 9 8 .1
299 3
3 0 0 .3
2 9 2 .4
2 9 3 .0
2 9 4 .9
2 8 4 .7
2 8 4 .7
2 8 4 .9
2 8 0 .2
2 8 3 .5
2 8 4 .9
3 2 1 .8
3 2 3 .1
3 2 4 .5
3 2 4 .8
3 2 0 .5
3 1 9 .2
3 2 0 .3
3 2 1 .3
1 9 6 .1
1 9 5 .6
1 9 5 .0
1 9 7 .3
1 9 4 .0
1 9 4 .8
1 9 5 .3
1 9 4 .7
1 9 4 .0
1 9 6 .3
2 9 8 .3
3 0 0 .4
3 0 2 .4
2 9 8 .0
2 8 8 .6
293 5
2 9 7 .5
299 6
3 0 1 .9
3 0 4 .1
3 5 5 .4
3 5 7 .7
3 6 0 .0
3 3 1 .3
3 5 0 .0
3 5 1 .2
3 5 2 .1
353 3
355 6
357 9
2 4 3 .1
1 9 0 .7
Apr.
M ay
June
July
A ug.
2 9 6 .3
2 9 7 .2
298 2
2 9 9 .5
2 8 5 .4
2 8 5 .0
285 0
2 8 5 .1
3 2 2 .3
3 2 3 .1
3 2 4 .3
.............................................................................................................
2 3 7 .4
2 4 4 .6
2 4 4 .6
2 4 4 .8
2 4 5 .4
2 4 6 .0
2 4 6 .6
2 3 3 .9
2 4 0 .8
2 4 1 .1
2 4 1 .3
2 4 1 .9
2 4 2 .5
O th e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s ...................................................................................
2 5 8 .3
2 8 1 .9
2 8 3 .2
2 8 3 .6
2 8 4 .5
2 8 7 .5
2 8 9 .0
255 7
2 8 0 .0
2 8 1 .4
2 8 1 .8
2 8 2 .8
2 8 6 .4
2 8 8 .0
C o m m o d ' t i e s ..................................................................................................................
2 6 6 .4
2 6 6 .7
2 6 9 .2
2 7 0 .9
2 7 1 .6
2 7 2 .5
2 7 3 .4
2 6 6 .8
2 6 8 .4
2 7 0 .9
2 7 2 .7
2 7 3 .3
2 7 4 .2
2 7 5 .1
C o m m o d itie s le s s fo o d a n d b e v e r a g e s .......................................
2 5 5 .9
2 5 4 .3
2 5 9 .7
2 6 0 .9
2 5 6 .5
2 5 7 .4
2 6 0 .3
2 6 2 .7
2 6 3 .7
2 6 4 .9
N o n d u r a b le s le s s f o o d a n d b e v e r a g e s ...................................
2 6 6 .1
2 6 8 .8
2 6 3 .4
2 6 7 .8
2 7 1 .3
2 7 2 .3
2 7 3 .5
2 7 4 .7
2 7 0 .7
2 6 5 .0
2 6 9 .7
2 7 3 .3
2 7 4 .4
D u r a b l e s .........................................................................................................
2 7 5 .7
276 9
2 4 4 .6
2 4 7 .4
2 4 8 .7
2 4 9 .5
2 5 1 .2
2 5 2 .9
2 5 4 .3
2 4 4 .0
2 4 9 .7
2 5 1 .2
2 5 2 .8
253 7
2 5 4 .8
2 5 6 .0
3 3 8 .9
3 3 9 .4
3 4 1 .2
3 4 2 .6
3 4 4 .0
3 4 5 .6
3 4 6 .8
3 4 0 .0
338 5
3 3 9 .5
3 4 0 .1
3 4 1 .4
3 4 2 .8
3 4 4 .8
2 2 6 .0
233 6
2 3 4 .5
2 3 5 .1
2 3 5 .9
2 3 7 .1
238 2
2 2 5 .5
2 3 3 .1
2 3 4 .0
2 3 4 .6
2 3 5 .3
236 5
2 3 7 .6
1 0 1 .6
1 0 2 .0
1 0 3 .2
1 0 4 .2
1 0 4 .8
1 0 4 .8
2 9 7 .8
2 9 9 .8
3 0 0 .8
3 0 1 .2
3 0 1 .4
3 0 2 .3
3 0 4 .0
2 9 6 .5
2 9 6 .7
2 9 7 .2
M e d ic a l c a r e s e r v i c e s ...........................................................................
2 9 7 .6
2 9 7 .5
2 9 8 .4
3 0 0 .2
3 6 1 .0
3 8 2 .2
3 8 2 .8
3 8 3 .5
3 8 4 .6
3 8 7 .2
3 8 9 .8
3 5 8 ,3
3 7 9 .0
3 7 9 .7
O th e r s e r v ic e s
3 8 0 .5
3 8 1 .7
3 8 4 .4
3 8 7 .0
259 7
272 9
2 7 4 .2
2 7 4 .7
2 7 5 .6
2 7 6 .3
2 7 6 .9
2 5 8 .4
2 7 0 .6
2 7 2 .0
2 7 2 .6
2 7 3 .5
2 7 4 .2
2 7 4 .8
292 5
2 9 2 .4
2 9 4 .7
2 9 6 .5
2 9 7 .8
299 3
3 0 0 .5
2 9 2 .4
292 4
2 9 4 .4
2 9 6 .1
2 9 7 .2
298 5
3 0 0 .0
1 0 0 .3
1 0 1 .0
1 0 1 ,6
1 0 1 .9
1 0 2 .3
1 0 2 .7
2 7 5 .8
2 7 9 .0
2 7 9 .7
2 8 1 .7
2 8 3 .5
2 8 5 .3
2 8 6 .3
263 9
S e rv c e s
..........................................................................................................................
R e n t, r e s i d e n t i a l .......................................................................................
H o u s e h o ld s e r v ic e s le s s r e n t o f s h e lt e r ( 1 2 / 8 2 = 1 0 0 )
T r a n s p o r t a tio n s e r v i c e s ......................................................................
............................................................................................
2 5 7 .3
2 6 2 .3
2 6 3 .6
S p e c i a l in d e x e s :
A ll it e m s le s s f o o d .....................................................................................................
A ll it e m s le s s h o m e o w n e r s ' c o s ts
.............................................................
A ll it e m s le s s m o r t g a g e in t e r e s t c o s t s .....................................................
C o m m o d itie s le s s f o o d
........................................................................................
2 5 3 .8
2 5 2 .4
2 5 5 .4
2 5 7 .6
258 9
2 6 0 .2
2 6 1 .4
2 5 4 .4
N o n d u r a b le s le s s f o o d
.......................................................................................
2 5 5 .4
2 5 8 .2
2 6 0 .6
2 6 1 .6
2 6 2 .7
2 6 3 .6
258 9
2 6 3 .0
2 6 6 .3
2 6 7 .3
2 6 8 .4
2 6 9 .6
2 6 5 .4
2 6 0 .6
N o n d u r a b le s le s s fo o d a n d a p p a r e l .............................................................
2 6 5 .0
2 6 8 .4
2 6 9 .3
2 7 0 .6
2 7 1 .7
3 0 4 .2
2 9 6 .5
3 0 2 .1
3 0 6 .7
3 0 8 .4
3 1 0 .4
3 1 0 .9
3 0 5 .5
N o n d u r a b e s ..................................................................................................................
2 9 7 .4
3 0 3 .5
3 0 8 .2
3 0 9 .9
3 1 2 .1
3 1 2 .7
2 7 5 .5
2 7 4 .4
2 7 7 .3
2 7 9 .3
2 7 9 .7
2 8 0 .3
2 8 1 .0
2 7 6 .5
2 7 5 .3
2 7 8 .4
2 8 0 .4
2 8 0 .8
2 8 1 .4
2 8 2 .1
3 3 8 .1
S e r v ic e s le s s r e n t o f s h e lt e r ( 1 2 /8 2 = 1 0 0 )
.......................................
1 0 1 .3
1 0 1 .6
1 0 2 .2
1 0 2 .7
3 3 4 .1
3 3 2 .7
3 3 4 .5
3 3 6 .0
3 3 7 .4
3 3 8 .9
3 3 9 .9
3 3 5 .6
D o m e s tic a lly p r o d u c e d f a r m f o o d s .......................................
3 3 2 .0
3 3 3 .0
3 3 3 .5
3 3 4 .9
3 3 6 .1
2 6 8 .4
2 6 8 .4
2 6 9 .9
2 7 0 .6
2 6 9 .6
2 6 9 .6
2 6 9 .2
2 6 7 .4
S e le c te d b e e f c u t s .....................................................................................................
267 6
2 6 9 .0
2 6 9 .6
2 6 8 .7
2 6 8 .5
2 8 0 .8
2 7 2 .6
2 7 9 .4
2 8 1 .5
2 7 8 .5
2 7 5 .8
2 7 0 .5
2 8 1 .9
2 7 4 .0
2 8 0 .7
2 8 3 .0
2 7 9 .8
2 7 7 .2
2 7 1 .6
4 2 4 .5
3 9 9 .9
4 1 0 .0
4 2 1 .3
4 2 7 .3
4 3 0 .1
4 2 9 .8
4 2 6 .1
399 8
4 1 0 .8
4 2 2 .1
4 2 8 .1
4 3 0 .9
4 3 0 .7
4 3 6 .6
3 8 8 .3
4 0 3 .2
4 1 6 .3
4 2 0 .7
4 2 3 .4
4 2 3 .7
............................................................................................
4 3 7 .3
3 8 8 .7
4 0 4 .3
4 1 7 .3
4 2 1 .7
4 2 4 .5
4 2 4 .9
282 7
2 8 5 .6
2 8 7 .0
2 8 7 .6
2 8 8 .2
2 8 9 .2
2 9 0 .3
A ll it e m s le s s f o o d a n d e n e r g y ....................................................
2 8 1 .5
2 8 4 .4
2 8 5 .6
2 8 6 .1
2 8 6 .5
2 8 7 .4
2 7 9 .8
2 8 8 .8
2 8 2 .6
2 8 4 .0
2 8 4 .7
2 8 5 .5
2 8 6 .8
2 8 8 .2
2 7 8 .7
2 8 1 .6
2 8 2 .6
2 8 3 .2
2 8 3 .8
2 8 4 .9
2 3 3 .6
2 3 9 .1
2 8 6 .6
2 4 0 .2
2 4 0 .8
2 4 1 .5
2 4 2 .7
2 4 4 .2
2 3 2 .8
2 4 0 .0
241 2
2 4 2 .3
2 4 2 .9
2 4 3 .8
2 4 5 .1
S e r v ic e s le s s m e d ic a l c a r e
E n e rg y 1
...............................................................................
..................................................................................................................
E n e r g y c o m m o d it ie s 1 .......................................................................................
A ll it e m s le s s e n e r g y
C o m m o d itie s le s s f o o d a n d e n e r g y ...................................
S e r v ic e s le s s e n e r g y ......................................................................
P u r c h a s in g p o w e r o f t h e c o n s u m e r d o lla r , 1 9 6 7 = $1
S e e f o o t n o t e s a t e n d o f t a b le .
98
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
1 0 3 .1
1 0 3 .5
2 6 8 .0
3 3 3 .6
3 3 3 .1
3 3 4 .8
3 3 5 .6
3 3 6 .4
337 9
3 3 9 .3
3 3 4 .7
3 3 1 .9
3 3 2 .7
3 3 2 .6
3 3 3 .2
3 3 4 .5
3 3 6 .8
$ 0 .3 4 2
$ 0 .3 4 1
$ 0 .3 3 8
$ 0 .3 3 7
$ 0 .3 3 5
$0 334
$ 0 .3 3 3
$ 0 .3 4 2
$ 0 ,3 4 1
$ 0 ,3 3 9
$ 0 ,3 3 7
$ 0 ,3 3 6
$ 0 ,3 3 5
$ 0 ,3 3 4
20.
C ontinued— C onsum er Price In dex— U.S. city average
[1967 = 100 unless otherwise specified)
All U rban C onsu m ers
G en eral su m m a ry
1982
Aug
U rban W a g e E arn ers and C le ric a l W o rk e rs
1983
M a r.
Apr.
M ay
1983
June
July
Aug.
A ug.
M a r.
A pr.
M ay
Ju n e
July
Aug.
2 8 5 .0
2 8 5 .0
2 8 5 .1
FOOD AN D BEVERAGES
2 7 9 .9
283 2
2 8 4 .6
2 8 5 .0
2 8 4 .7
2 8 4 .7
2 8 4 .9
2 8 3 .5
284 9
Food
2 8 7 .4
2 9 0 .5
2 9 1 .9
2 9 2 .4
2 9 2 .0
2 9 2 .0
2 9 2 .2
2 8 7 .5
2 9 0 .7
2 9 2 .1
2 9 2 .6
2 9 2 .2
2 9 2 .1
2 9 2 .2
2 8 0 .8
2 8 1 .9
2 8 3 .4
2 8 3 .8
2 8 3 .0
2 8 2 .8
2 8 2 .5
2 7 9 .8
2 8 1 .2
2 8 2 .5
2 8 2 .9
2 8 2 .1
2 8 1 .8
2 8 1 .5
2 9 1 .0
2 9 2 .3
2 9 2 .5
Food at hom e
................................................................................................................................................
C e r e a ls a n d b a k e r y p r o d u c t s
................................................................................................
2 8 4 .8
2 8 9 .8
2 9 1 .1
2 9 1 .7
2 9 2 .4
2 9 3 .7
2 9 4 .0
2 8 3 .4
2 8 8 .5
2 8 9 .6
2 9 0 .2
................................................
1 5 4 .5
1 5 5 .0
1 5 6 .1
1 5 7 .0
1 5 7 .9
1 5 8 .3
1 5 8 .6
1 5 5 .5
1 5 5 .8
1 5 6 .9
1 5 7 .7
1 5 8 .7
1 5 9 .2
1 5 9 .5
1 0 0 ) ..............................
1 4 1 .6
1 3 9 .4
1 4 0 .2
1 4 1 .3
1 4 2 .2
1 4 2 .8
1 4 3 .9
1 4 2 .1
1 3 9 .9
1 4 0 .4
1 4 1 .7
1 4 2 .7
1 4 3 .3
1 4 4 .6
.......................................................................................
1 6 6 .5
1 7 1 .3
1 7 3 .8
1 7 5 .7
1 7 6 .4
1 7 6 .7
1 7 7 .2
1 6 8 .6
1 7 3 .5
1 7 5 .9
1 7 7 .8
1 7 8 .5
1 7 8 .8
1 7 9 .5
1 4 7 .7
C e r e a ls a n d c e r e a l p r o d u c ts ( 1 2 /7 7 =
100)
F lo u r a n d p r e p a r e d f lo u r m ix e s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
C e re a l ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
100)
R ic e , p a s ta , a n d c o r n m e a l ( 1 2 /7 7 =
.......................................
1 4 9 .3
1 4 6 .0
1 4 5 .8
1 4 4 .8
1 4 6 .2
1 4 6 .5
1 4 5 .6
1 5 0 .5
1 4 7 .0
1 4 6 .8
1 4 5 .8
1 4 7 .3
1 0 0 ) ...............................................................................
1 4 9 ,4
1 5 2 .8
1 5 3 .3
1 5 3 .5
1 5 3 .7
1 5 4 .4
1 5 4 .5
1 4 8 .1
1 5 1 .6
1 5 2 .0
152 2
1 5 2 .4
1 5 3 .2
1 5 3 .3
W h it e b r e a d ..................................................................................................................
2 4 6 .6
2 5 2 .0
2 5 2 .1
2 5 2 .6
c 2 5 3 .1
2 5 4 .3
2 5 3 .1
2 4 2 .5
2 4 7 .8
2 4 7 .6
2 4 8 .2
2 4 8 .8
249 9
2 4 8 .7
1 0 0 ) ..........................................................................
1 4 6 .2
1 4 9 .0
1 4 8 .8
1 4 9 .7
1 4 9 .8
1 4 9 .5
1 5 0 .1
1 4 8 .2
1 5 1 .1
1 5 0 .7
1 5 1 .8
1 5 1 .8
1 5 1 .6
1 5 2 .2
B a k e r y p r o d u c ts ( 1 2 /7 7 =
O th e r b r e a d s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
100)
1 4 6 .8
F r e s h b is c u its , r o lls , a n d m u ff in s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
100)
......................
1 5 0 .5
1 5 2 .0
1 5 2 .5
1 5 2 .0
1 5 1 .7
1 5 3 .2
1 5 3 .4
1 4 6 .6
1 4 8 .0
1 4 8 .4
1 4 7 .9
1 4 8 .0
1 4 9 .6
1 4 9 .6
F r e s h c a k e s a n d c u p c a k e s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
.......................................
1 4 9 .5
1 5 3 .8
1 5 4 .9
1 5 4 .7
1 5 4 .6
1 5 5 .4
1 5 4 .9
1 4 7 .6
1 5 2 .1
1 5 3 .3
1 5 3 .0
1 5 2 .9
1 5 3 .6
1 5 3 .3
...................................................................................
1 4 9 .6
1 5 5 .1
1 5 6 .8
1 5 6 .1
1 5 5 .7
1 5 7 .0
1 5 7 .6
1 5 0 .6
1 5 6 .0
1 5 7 .6
1 5 6 .8
1 5 6 .4
1 5 7 .9
1 5 8 .5
1 4 1 .3
1 4 6 .0
1 4 7 .2
1 4 7 .9
1 4 9 .5
1 5 0 .3
1 5 1 .4
1 4 2 .6
1 4 7 .3
1 4 8 .7
1 4 9 .5
1 5 1 .0
1 5 1 .8
1 5 2 .8
1 4 8 .9
1 5 4 .2
1 5 3 .7
1 5 4 .0
1 5 3 .7
1 5 4 .1
155 3
1 5 1 .5
1 5 6 .9
1 5 6 .2
1 5 6 .7
1 5 6 .6
1 5 6 .9
1 5 8 .0
1 5 6 .6
1 5 6 .2
1 5 7 .1
1 5 7 .4
1 5 8 .8
1 5 9 .4
1 5 9 .4
1 4 9 .5
1 4 9 .4
1 5 0 .2
1 5 0 .5
1 5 2 .0
1 5 2 .5
1 5 2 .5
C o o k ie s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
100)
100)
C r a c k e r s , b r e a d , a n d c r a c k e r p r o d u c ts ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
100)
F re s h s w e e t r o lls , c o ffe e c a k e , a n d d o n u t s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
. . .
100)
. .
F r o z e n a n d r e fr ig e r a te d b a k e r y p r o d u c ts
a n d f r e s h p ie s , t a r t s , a n d t u r n o v e r s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
M e a ts , p o u ltr y , f is h , a n d e g g s
100) . . . .
............................................................................................
M e a ts , p o u ltr y , a n d f i s h ................................................................................................
M e a ts
..........................................................................................................................
Beef and veal
.........................................................................................................
2 6 5 .4
2 6 4 .2
2 6 4 .2
2 6 3 .8
2 6 1 .5
2 6 0 .4
2 5 8 .8
2 6 5 .1
2 6 4 .0
2 6 3 .9
2 6 3 .6
2 6 1 .3
2 6 0 .1
258 4
2 7 3 .7
2 7 1 .4
2 7 1 .4
2 7 0 .5
2 6 8 .7
2 6 7 .2
2 6 5 .0
2 7 3 .3
2 7 1 .1
2 7 1 .0
2 7 0 .2
2 6 8 .3
2 6 6 .8
2 6 4 .4
2 7 6 .5
2 7 2 .8
2 7 3 .3
2 7 2 .7
2 7 0 .2
2 6 7 .8
2 6 4 .2
2 7 5 .8
2 7 2 .4
2 7 2 .9
2 7 2 .1
2 6 9 .7
2 6 7 .3
2 6 3 .7
2 8 0 .5
2 7 2 .8
2 7 9 .4
2 8 1 .3
2 7 8 .6
2 7 5 .8
2 7 0 .7
2 8 0 .8
2 7 3 .5
2 8 0 .0
2 8 2 .0
2 7 9 .2
2 7 6 .5
2 7 1 .1
G r o u n d b e e f o t h e r t h a n c a n n e d .........................................................
2 6 8 .1
2 6 3 .6
2 6 7 .0
2 6 6 .9
2 6 4 .5
2 6 1 .4
2 5 6 .5
2 6 9 .0
2 6 4 .7
2 6 8 .0
2 6 8 .3
2 6 5 .7
2 6 2 .7
C hucK ro a s t
....................................................................................................
2 8 9 .7
2 8 4 .8
2 9 1 .2
2 8 9 .5
2 7 7 .4
2 7 7 .6
2 7 2 .4
2 9 8 .9
2 9 3 .0
3 0 0 .2
2 9 8 .8
2 8 5 .7
2 8 6 .3
2 8 0 .6
R o u n d r o a s t .....................................................................................................
2 4 5 .0
2 3 9 .9
2 5 1 .1
2 4 9 .6
2 4 5 .6
2 4 0 .7
2 3 2 .4
2 4 7 .9
2 4 2 .8
2 5 4 .0
2 5 2 .3
2 4 9 .1
2 4 3 .8
2 3 5 .0
R o u n d s t e a k ............................................................................................
2 6 3 .4
2 5 7 .9
2 6 3 .9
2 6 8 .8
2 6 2 .1
2 5 7 .8
2 5 0 .3
2 6 1 .1
2 5 7 .1
2 6 2 .0
2 6 7 .7
2 6 0 .5
2 5 6 .5
2 4 8 .5
S ir lo in s t e a k .....................................................................................................
2 8 5 .5
2 6 2 .8
2 7 4 .8
2 8 4 .3
2 8 6 .1
2 8 5 .2
2 8 0 .9
2 8 6 .8
2 8 5 .9
2 8 7 .5
2 8 7 .5
2 8 1 .8
O th e r b e e f a n d v e a l (1 2 /7 7 =
1 6 9 .7
1 6 4 .4
1 6 8 .3
1 7 0 .2
1 7 0 .5
1 6 8 .8
1 6 6 .6
1 6 8 .0
1 6 3 .0
1 6 6 .8
1 6 8 .6
1 6 9 .1
1 6 7 .4
1 6 5 .1
2 6 8 .2
2 7 1 .1
2 6 2 .1
2 5 7 .3
2 5 4 .1
2 5 1 .2
2 4 9 .6
2 6 7 .6
2 7 0 .4
2 6 1 .7
2 5 6 .8
253 9
2 5 0 .8
2 4 9 .3
2 6 7 .4
2 6 7 .3
2 6 4 .7
3 0 0 .4
2 9 3 .1
2 8 1 .4
2 7 6 .8
2 7 1 .9
2 7 1 .6
2 6 8 .8
2 3 2 .9
2 3 2 .4
2 4 6 .3
2 4 4 .7
2 3 9 .7
2 3 5 .9
2 3 2 .5
2 3 1 .1
2 3 0 .5
100)
............................................
P o r k ............................................................................................
2 6 4 .5
2 7 6 .0
2 5 8 .0
B acon
.........................................................................................................
2 9 5 .6
2 8 8 .7
276 6
2 7 2 .5
C hops
..................................................................................................................
2 4 8 .0
2 4 6 .4
2 4 1 .8
2 3 7 .7
1 0 0 ) ...................................
1 1 6 .8
1 2 5 .6
1 1 6 .7
1 1 2 .0
1 1 0 .3
1 0 8 .3
1 0 9 .6
1 1 3 .8
1 2 2 .4
1 1 3 .9
1 0 9 .3
1 0 7 .5
1 0 5 .5
1 0 6 .8
3 3 2 .2
3 3 6 .9
3 3 2 .5
3 3 0 .6
3 2 6 .5
3 1 8 .9
3 1 3 .9
3 3 3 .5
3 3 7 .0
3 3 3 .1
3 3 1 .1
327 3
3 2 0 .0
3 1 5 .3
2 5 7 .6
2 7 7 .3
2 7 2 .0
2 6 6 .6
2 6 0 .9
2 5 6 .8
2 5 4 .0
2 6 1 .1
2 8 2 .2
2 7 7 .1
2 7 1 .6
2 6 6 .4
2 6 2 .6
2 5 9 .8
H a m o t h e r t h a n c a n n e d ( 1 2 /7 7 =
Sausage
.................................................................................................
C a n n e d h a m ......................
O th e r p o r k ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
O th e r m e a ts
.............................................................
100)
.........................................................
.....................................................................................................
F r a n k fu r te r s
...................................................................................
B o lo g n a , liv e r w u r s t , a n d s a la m i ( 1 2 /7 7 =
O t h e r lu n c h m e a t s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
100)
100)
. . . .
...................................
L a m b a n d o r g a n m e a ts ( 1 2 /7 7 =
100)
. . . .
P o u l t r y ......................................................................
F re s h w h o le c h i c k e n ................................................
F re s h a n d fr o z e n c h ic k e n p a r ts ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
1 0 0 ) ..................
1 0 0 ) ................................................
O th e r p o u l t r y ( 1 2 /7 7 =
F is h a n d s e a f o o d .....................................................
C a n n e d f is h a n d s e a fo o d
............................................
F re s h a n d fr o z e n f is h a n d s e a fo o d ( 1 2 /7 7 =
100)
. . .
2 3 4 .3
1 5 0 .8
1 4 8 .1
1 4 3 .5
1 4 1 .4
1 4 1 .7
1 4 0 .0
1 3 8 .4
1 5 0 .0
1 4 7 .3
1 4 2 .8
1 4 0 .6
1 4 1 .1
1 3 9 .3
1 3 7 .8
2 7 2 .8
2 6 9 .7
2 6 8 .6
2 6 7 .7
2 6 7 .4
2 6 6 .9
2 6 4 .6
2 7 2 .3
269 3
2 6 8 .3
2 6 7 .3
2 6 6 .9
2 6 6 .6
2 6 4 .4
2 7 5 .6
2 7 0 .8
2 6 7 .4
2 6 6 .7
2 6 5 .8
2 6 5 .9
2 6 6 .7
2 7 4 .9
2 7 0 .1
2 6 6 .4
2 6 5 .2
2 6 4 .9
2 6 4 .9
2 6 5 .9
1 5 7 .5
1 5 5 .2
1 5 4 .4
1 5 4 .2
1 5 5 .6
1 5 4 .0
1 5 3 .3
1 5 3 .2
1 5 7 .6
1 5 5 .1
1 5 4 .3
1 5 4 .1
1 5 5 .6
1 5 4 .1
1 3 8 .3
1 3 9 .0
1 3 9 .7
1 3 7 .7
1 3 6 .6
1 3 7 .1
1 3 6 .4
1 3 6 .1
1 3 7 .0
1 3 7 .7
1 3 5 .8
1 3 4 .6
1 3 5 .2
1 3 4 .5
1 4 2 .3
1 3 8 .2
1 3 7 .0
1 3 9 .1
1 3 9 .3
1 3 8 .4
1 3 3 .8
1 4 5 .6
1 4 0 .9
1 4 0 .0
1 4 2 .2
1 4 2 .3
1 4 1 .6
1 3 6 .6
1 9 6 .2
1 9 3 .7
1 9 1 .0
1 9 2 .0
1 9 3 .6
1 9 8 .1
2 0 0 .5
1 9 4 .4
1 9 1 .6
1 8 9 .0
1 9 0 .1
1 9 1 .8
1 9 6 .1
1 9 8 .5
200.0
1 9 3 .8
1 9 0 .7
1 8 4 .5
1 8 7 .7
1 9 2 .1
1 9 8 .7
2 0 2 .1
1 9 1 .8
1 8 8 .4
1 8 2 .3
1 8 5 .7
1 9 0 .4
1 9 6 .6
1 2 8 .2
1 2 6 .6
1 2 5 .7
1 2 6 .6
1 2 6 .3
1 2 9 .6
1 3 1 .7
1 2 6 .5
1 2 5 .1
1 2 4 .2
1 2 4 .9
1 2 4 .7
1 2 7 .7
1 2 9 .9
1 2 7 .7
1 2 6 .6
1 2 7 .2
1 2 5 .4
1 2 5 .3
1 2 6 .0
1 2 5 .7
127.4
125.6
1 2 6 .6
124.9
124.7
125 3
1 2 5 .1
3 6 7 .6
3 8 0 .1
3 7 9 .4
3 7 2 .6
3 7 1 .2
3 6 8 .9
3 7 2 .7
3 6 5 .8
3 7 8 .9
3 7 7 .5
3 7 1 .5
3 6 9 .8
3 6 7 .3
3 7 0 .8
1 3 9 .4
1 3 8 .3
1 3 7 .9
1 3 7 .2
1 3 8 .6
1 3 5 .7
1 3 5 .9
1 3 8 .8
1 3 7 .8
1 3 7 .4
1 3 6 .8
1 3 8 .1
1 3 5 .2
1 3 5 .4
1 4 4 .8
1 4 0 .4
1 4 8 .6
1 4 8 .4
1 4 4 .7
1 4 3 .0
1 4 3 .3
1 4 5 .5
1 3 9 .7
1 4 8 .3
1 4 7 .7
1 4 4 .4
1 4 2 .5
1 4 2 .8
E g g s .................................................................................................................................................
1 6 1 .2
1 7 5 .0
1 7 4 .9
1 8 1 .8
1 7 3 .8
1 7 7 .9
1 8 3 .7
1 6 2 .3
1 7 5 .8
1 7 5 .8
1 8 2 .7
1 7 4 .8
1 7 8 .7
1 8 4 .6
D a ir y p r o d u c ts
2 4 7 .5
2 4 9 .6
2 5 0 .1
2 5 0 .3
2 4 9 .8
2 4 9 .8
250 2
2 4 6 .8
248 9
2 4 9 .4
2 4 9 .6
2 4 9 .1
2 4 9 .0
2 4 9 .4
.........................................................
F r e s h m i lk a n d c r e a m ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
1 0 0 ) .................
1 3 5 .4
1 3 6 .8
1 3 6 .6
1 3 6 .5
1 3 6 .3
1 3 6 .2
1 3 6 .5
1 3 4 .8
1 3 6 .3
1 3 6 .1
1 3 6 .0
1 3 5 .9
F r e s h w h o le m i l k .........................................................
1 3 5 .7
1 3 5 .9
2 2 1 .2
2 2 3 .4
2 2 3 .5
2 2 3 .2
2 2 2 .9
222 8
2 2 3 .2
2 2 0 .3
222.6
2 2 2 .7
2 2 2 .3
222.1
O t h e r f r e s h m ilk a n d c r e a m ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
222.0
2 2 2 .3
1 3 6 .0
1 3 7 .7
1 3 6 .7
1 3 6 .8
1 3 6 .8
1 3 6 .4
1 3 6 .8
1 3 5 .5
1 3 7 .1
1 3 6 .1
1 3 6 .3
1 3 6 .3
1 3 5 .8
1 3 6 .2
100)
P r o c e s s e d d a ir y p r o d u c t s ...................................
1 4 6 .3
1 4 7 .2
1 4 8 .1
1 4 8 .6
1 4 8 .1
1 4 8 .2
1 4 8 .4
1 4 6 .6
1 4 7 .4
1 4 8 .4
1 4 8 .8
B u t t e r .....................................................
1 4 8 .3
1 4 8 .5
1 4 8 .6
2 5 2 .1
2 5 3 .5
253 9
2 5 4 .4
2 5 2 .7
2 5 3 .3
2 5 4 .2
2 5 4 .6
2 5 6 .1
2 5 6 .5
256 9
2 5 5 .4
C h e e se (1 2 /7 7 =
2 5 5 .8
2 5 6 .8
1 4 4 .8
1 4 5 .5
1 4 6 .5
1 4 6 .5
1 4 6 .0
1 4 6 .9
1 4 6 .4
1 4 5 .1
1 4 5 .8
1 4 6 .8
1 4 6 .8
1 4 6 .3
1 4 7 .3
1 4 6 .7
100)
...............................
Ic e c r e a m a n d r e la te d p r o d u c ts ( 1 2 /7 7 =
O t h e r d a ir y p r o d u c ts ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
F r u it s a n d v e g e ta b le s .
100)
100)
. . . .
..........................
F re s h f r u i t s a n d v e g e ta b le s . . . .
F re s h f r u i t s ...........................
A p p le s
.....................................................
Bananas
...............................
O ra n g e s
.......................................
O th e r f r e s h f r u i t s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
100) .
F re s h v e g e t a b l e s ......................
P o ta to e s
........................................
L e t t u c e ................................................
T o m a to e s
...............................
O th e r f r e s h v e g e ta b le s ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
P r o c e s s e d f r u i t s a n d v e g e ta b le s
P ro c e s s e d f r u its ( 1 2 /7 7 =
100)
. . .
100)
F r o z e n f r u i t a n d f r u i t ju ic e s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
100)
F r u it ju ic e s o t h e r t h a n fr o z e n ( 1 2 /7 7 =
C a n n e d a n d d r ie d f r u i t s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
P r o c e s s e d v e g e ta b le s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
F ro z e n v e g e ta b le s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
100)
100) . .
100)
.
100)
.
1 5 0 .6
1 5 0 .7
1 5 2 .0
1 5 3 .6
1 5 4 .0
1 5 1 .6
1 5 2 .5
1 4 9 .6
1 4 9 .8
1 5 1 .1
1 5 2 .7
1 5 3 .0
1 5 0 .7
1 5 1 .5
1 4 0 .7
1 4 3 .9
1 4 4 .5
1 4 4 .6
1 4 3 .1
1 4 4 .5
1 4 5 .9
1 4 1 .6
1 4 4 .6
1 4 5 .3
1 4 5 .3
1 4 3 .7
1 4 5 .1
1 4 6 .5
2 9 1 .4
2 8 6 .9
2 9 4 .9
2 9 8 .2
2 9 8 .2
2 9 8 .7
2 9 9 .4
2 8 6 .7
2 8 2 .9
2 9 1 .1
2 9 4 .5
2 9 4 .5
2 9 4 .7
2 9 5 .1
3 0 4 .3
296 9
2 8 8 .6
3 0 4 .3
3 1 1 .0
3 1 0 .9
3 1 0 .6
3 1 0 .7
2 8 9 .7
2 8 3 .0
298 9
3 0 5 .5
3 0 5 .4
3 0 4 .8
3 3 6 .1
2 8 2 .8
2 9 1 .9
3 0 0 .6
3 1 0 .5
3 2 6 .5
3 2 8 .9
3 2 3 .2
2 7 2 .5
2 8 2 .2
2 9 0 .6
2 9 9 .7
3 1 5 .3
3 1 7 .5
3 1 4 .5
2 4 9 .3
2 5 9 .9
2 6 6 .4
2 8 1 .9
2 8 7 .5
3 1 0 .0
3 1 6 .7
2 4 9 .6
2 6 0 .5
2 6 6 .8
2 8 3 .4
2 8 8 .8
3 1 1 .9
2 3 3 .7
2 5 7 .1
2 9 5 .1
3 1 2 .5
3 1 8 .1
3 2 5 .2
2 9 1 .0
2 3 1 .3
2 5 4 .6
2 9 3 .0
3 1 1 .1
3 1 6 .7
3 2 3 .1
2 9 0 .7
4 7 3 .0
2 9 9 .1
3 0 1 .3
2 9 7 .2
3 0 9 .1
3 4 7 .9
3 5 9 .8
4 3 3 .5
2 7 2 .7
2 7 4 .4
2 7 0 .2
2 8 0 .1
3 2 1 .5
329 9
1 6 3 .9
1 5 4 .4
1 5 5 .8
1 6 2 .4
1 6 6 .3
1 7 3 .3
1 7 3 .2
1 5 8 .1
1 4 9 .0
1 5 0 .9
156 9
1 6 0 .0
1 6 6 .6
2 6 0 .2
2 9 4 .0
3 1 6 .0
3 2 0 .8
3 1 1 .3
2 9 5 .8
2 9 3 .8
2 5 9 .6
2 9 2 .5
3 1 4 .0
3 1 9 .2
3 1 0 .8
2 9 5 .5
2 9 2 .5
3 2 8 .1
2 4 1 .1
2 5 8 .7
2 8 2 .3
3 0 4 .7
3 2 0 .7
3 4 2 .2
3 2 3 .4
2 3 6 .1
2 5 3 .3
2 7 7 .3
3 0 1 .3
3 1 8 .2
3 3 8 .2
1 6 6 .3
2 4 6 .3
2 4 7 .9
3 1 6 .0
3 4 0 .9
2 8 0 .5
2 9 3 .9
2 4 7 .5
2 4 6 .6
3 1 1 .6
3 3 8 .0
3 6 0 .8
2 8 0 .6
2 9 4 .2
1 9 4 .3
3 5 2 .2
3 2 7 .5
3 0 7 .8
2 6 2 .3
2 4 3 .1
2 0 0 .5
1 9 8 .2
3 5 8 .1
3 3 2 .1
3 1 3 .2
2 6 7 .1
2 4 7 .3
2 0 4 .0
1 3 8 .3
1 7 5 .8
1 8 6 .9
1 8 4 .1
1 6 9 .4
1 6 7 .6
1 6 3 .6
1 3 7 .8
1 7 4 .9
1 8 6 .4
1 8 3 .4
1 6 9 .5
1 6 7 .3
1 6 2 .5
287 6
2 8 7 .1
2 8 6 .7
2 8 6 .9
2 8 8 .2
2 8 9 .5
2 8 5 .9
2 8 5 .3
2 8 4 .8
2 8 4 .6
2 8 4 .7
2 8 5 .9
2 8 7 .4
1 5 1 .0
2 8 8 .0
3 6 3 .5
1 4 8 .7
1 5 1 .3
1 5 0 .6
1 5 0 .3
1 4 9 .7
1 5 0 .6
1 5 0 .7
1 4 8 .2
1 5 0 .2
1 5 0 .0
1 4 9 .3
1 5 0 .2
150 4
1 4 2 .8
1 4 5 .0
1 4 3 .9
1 4 2 .3
1 4 0 .0
1 4 0 .6
1 4 1 .1
1 4 1 .7
1 4 4 .1
1 4 3 .0
1 4 1 .4
1 3 9 .0
1 3 9 .8
1 4 0 .3
1 5 3 .0
156 6
1 5 5 .7
1 5 5 .7
1 5 5 .1
1 5 6 .4
1 5 5 .6
1 5 1 .9
1 5 5 .6
1 5 4 .6
1 5 4 .7
1 5 4 .0
1 5 5 .4
1 5 4 .7
1 4 8 .9
1 5 1 .0
1 5 0 .8
1 5 1 .3
1 5 2 .0
1 5 2 .6
1 5 3 .5
1 4 9 .6
1 5 1 .5
1 5 1 .4
1 5 1 .8
1 5 2 .6
1 5 3 .1
1 5 3 .8
1 4 0 .7
1 3 7 .7
1 3 8 .0
1 3 7 .9
1 3 8 .7
1 3 9 .0
1 4 0 .2
1 3 9 .6
136 6
1 3 6 .8
1 3 7 .9
1 5 1 .2
1 5 1 .4
1 5 1 .7
1 5 2 .8
1 4 9 .0
152.8
1 3 9 .1
1509
152.5
1 3 7 .5
1 4 9 .7
151.3
1 3 6 .8
1 4 7 .7
153.1
153.3
154.5
99
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • Current Labor Statistics: Consumer Prices
20.
C ontinued— C onsum er Price Index— U.S. city average
[1967 = 100 unless otherwise specified]
All U rban C onsum ers
G e n eral su m m ary
1 982
Aug.
U rban W a g e E arners and C le ric a l W o rke rs
1 983
M a r.
Apr.
M ay
1982
June
July
A ug.
A ug.
198 3
M a r.
Apr.
M ay
June
July
A ug.
FOOD AN D BEVERAG ES— C ontinued
Food— Continued
F o o d a t h o m e — C o n tin u e d
F r u it s a n d v e g e ta b le s — C o n tin u e d
C u t c o r n a n d c a n n e d b e a n s e x c e p t lim a ( 1 2 /7 7 =
O th e r c a n n e d a n d d r ie d v e g e ta b le s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
100)
100)
. . . .
O th e r f o o d s a t h o m e .....................................................................................................................
S u g a r a n d s w e e ts
.............................................................................................................
F a ts a n d o il s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
1 3 8 .9
1 3 9 .6
1 3 8 .4
1 4 0 .5
1 4 0 .9
1 4 2 .0
1 4 1 .2
1 3 6 .4
1 3 7 .1
1 3 6 .2
1 3 8 .1
1 3 8 .6
1 3 9 .5
1 3 1 .1
1 3 0 .6
1 3 0 .8
1 3 1 .2
1 3 1 .7
1 3 2 .9
1 3 4 .2
1 2 9 .7
1 2 9 .2
1 2 9 .5
1 2 9 .8
1 3 0 .2
1 3 1 .5
3 3 9 .1
3 3 9 .2
3 3 9 .1
3 3 8 .8
3 3 8 .7
3 3 9 .1
3 3 4 .0
3 3 9 .9
3 4 0 .0
3 3 9 .8
3 3 9 .5
3 3 9 .3
3 3 9 .9
3 7 0 .1
3 7 2 .8
3 7 3 .2
3 7 3 .1
3 7 4 .5
3 7 5 .7
3 7 6 .1
3 7 5 .8
3 7 0 .3
3 7 2 .5
3 7 3 .0
3 7 2 .9
3 7 4 .1
3 7 6 .0
1 5 0 .0
1 5 0 .3
1 5 0 .8
1 5 1 .0
1 5 1 .3
1 5 1 .8
1 5 1 .6
1 5 0 .1
1 5 0 .3
1 5 0 .8
1 5 1 .0
1 5 1 .2
C1 5 1 . 8
1 0 0 ) ...............................
1 6 6 .7
1 6 6 .9
1 6 8 .3
1 6 7 .2
1 6 8 .5
1 6 9 .7
1 6 9 .7
1 6 8 .2
1 6 8 .3
1 6 9 .7
1 6 8 .7
1 6 9 .8
1 7 1 .0
1 7 1 .0
1 0 0 ) ..........................................................................
1 4 9 .6
1 5 3 .4
1 5 1 .4
1 5 2 .0
1 5 2 .5
1 5 3 .0
1 5 2 .8
1 4 7 .5
1 5 1 .0
1 4 9 .1
1 4 9 .6
1 5 0 .2
1 5 0 .8
1 5 0 .6
C a n d y a n d c h e w in g g u m ( 1 2 /7 7 =
1 0 0 ) ............................................
S u g a r a n d a r tific ia l s w e e te n e r s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
O th e r s w e e t s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
1 4 3 .6
1 3 5 .6
3 3 3 .3
100)
1 5 1 .6
...................................................................................
2 5 8 .3
2 5 8 .4
2 5 8 .6
2 5 8 .3
2 5 8 .3
2 5 9 .0
2 5 8 .1
2 5 8 .2
2 5 8 .4
2 5 8 .4
2 5 8 .2
2 5 8 .0
2 5 8 .7
2 5 7 .8
M a r g a r i n e ......................................................................................................................
2 5 7 .9
2 5 5 .8
259 6
2 5 7 .1
2 5 9 .3
2 5 9 .5
2 5 7 .2
2 5 7 .3
2 5 4 .5
2 5 8 .1
2 5 5 .5
2 5 7 .5
2 5 7 .6
2 5 5 .1
N o n d a ir y s u b s titu t e s a n d p e a n u t b u t te r ( 1 2 /7 7 =
1 5 4 .2
1 5 1 ,4
1 5 1 .5
1 5 0 .7
1 4 9 .4
1 5 0 .5
1 4 9 .8
1 5 2 .4
1 4 9 .7
O th e r f a ts , o ils , a n d s a la d d r e s s in g s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
N o n a lc o h o lic b e v e r a g e s
100)
. . .
1 4 9 .9
1 4 9 .1
1 4 7 .7
1 4 8 .8
1 4 8 .1
1 0 0 ) ..................
1 2 8 .5
1 3 0 .4
1 2 9 .5
1 3 0 .2
1 3 0 .1
1 3 0 .3
1 3 0 .3
1 2 9 .0
1 3 1 .0
1 3 0 .1
1 3 0 .8
1 3 0 .7
1 3 0 .9
1 3 0 .9
................................................................................................
4 2 3 .8
4 3 2 .7
4 3 1 .8
4 3 1 .1
4 3 1 .0
4 2 8 .7
4 3 0 .7
4 2 5 .3
4 3 4 .5
4 3 3 .5
4 3 2 .4
4 3 2 .6
4 3 0 .3
4 3 2 .5
3 0 4 .3
3 1 4 .1
3 1 3 .1
3 1 1 .5
3 1 2 .3
3 1 0 .3
3 1 2 .4
3 0 1 .7
3 1 1 .5
3 1 0 .4
3 0 8 .5
3 0 9 .7
3 0 7 .8
3 0 9 .9
C o la d r in k s , e x c lu d in g d ie t c o la
.................................................................
C a r b o n a te d d r in k s , in c lu d in g d ie t c o la ( 1 2 /7 7 =
100)
. . . .
1 4 4 .8
1 4 6 .7
1 4 6 .8
1 4 7 .3
1 4 6 .3
1 4 5 .1
1 4 6 .3
1 4 2 .6
1 4 4 .5
1 4 4 .5
1 4 4 .9
1 4 3 .9
1 4 2 .6
R o a s te d c o f f e e .............................................................................................................
3 6 5 .5
3 6 3 .2
3 6 1 .4
3 6 0 .8
3 5 9 .3
3 5 6 .6
3 5 6 .0
3 6 0 .4
3 5 7 .9
3 5 6 .2
3 5 5 .6
3 5 4 .3
3 5 1 .7
3 5 0 .8
F re e z e d r ie d a n d in s t a n t c o f f e e ......................................................................
3 4 4 .9
3 4 9 .2
3 4 9 .5
3 5 1 .6
3 5 2 .2
3 5 1 .4
3 5 2 .3
3 4 4 .4
3 4 8 .8
3 4 9 .0
3 5 1 .0
3 5 1 .6
3 5 0 .7
3 5 1 .5
O th e r n o n c a r b o n a te d d r in k s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
100)
...................................
O th e r p r e p a r e d f o o d s .........................................................................................................
C a n n e d a n d p a c k a g e d s o u p ( 1 2 /7 7 =
F ro z e n p r e p a r e d f o o d s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
S n a c k s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
1 0 0 ) .......................................
100)
................................................
1 0 0 ) .......................................................................................
S e a s o n in g s , o liv e s , p ic k ie s , a n d r e lis h ( 1 2 /7 7 =
O th e r c o n d im e n t s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
100)
1 0 0 ) .............................................................
1 3 7 .7 .
1 4 1 .1
1 4 0 .6
1 4 0 .1
1 4 0 .5
1 4 0 .4
1 4 0 .5
1 3 7 .8
1 4 1 .3
1 4 0 .9
1 4 0 .4
1 4 0 .7
1 4 0 .7
1 4 0 .8
2 6 9 .9
2 7 6 .0
2 7 6 .9
2 7 7 .2
2 7 6 .1
2 7 6 .8
2 7 6 .9
2 7 1 .5
2 7 7 .5
2 7 8 .5
2 7 8 .8
2 7 7 .7
2 7 8 .4
2 7 8 .5
1 3 7 .9
1 4 0 .0
1 4 0 .9
1 4 1 .6
1 4 1 .6
1 4 1 .9
1 4 1 .8
1 4 0 .0
1 4 1 .9
1 4 2 .7
1 4 3 .6
1 4 3 .4
1 4 3 .7
1 4 3 .7
1 5 3 .1
1 5 3 .5
1 4 9 .1
1 5 3 .1
1 5 5 .0
1 5 4 .4
1 5 3 .8
1 5 4 .4
1-55.1
1 5 2 .2
1 5 4 .2
1 5 3 .1
1 5 7 .9
1 5 9 .2
1 6 0 .6
1 5 9 .0
1 5 9 .3
1 5 9 .3
1 5 5 .1
1 6 0 .1
1 6 1 .2
1 6 2 .7
1 6 1 .1
1 6 1 .3
1 6 1 .4
1 5 4 .1
1 6 1 .6
1 5 9 .3
1 5 9 .3
1 5 8 .6
1 5 8 .5
1 5 8 .3
1 5 3 .2
1 6 0 .4
1 5 8 .3
1 5 8 .4
1 5 7 .6
1 5 7 .5
1 5 7 .4
1 5 7 .9
1 5 1 .9
1 5 4 .9
1 5 5 .3
1 5 5 .6
1 5 5 .4
1 5 6 .1
1 5 6 .0
1 4 8 .5
1 5 3 .7
1 5 4 .2
1 5 3 .6
1 5 6 .7
1 5 7 .1
1 5 7 .4
1 5 7 .2
1 5 7 .9
1 5 0 .2
1 5 1 .7
1 5 1 .6
1 5 2 .0
1 5 1 .2
1 5 1 .6
1 5 1 .5
1 5 0 .3
1 5 1 .9
1 5 1 .8
1 5 2 .3
1 5 1 .5
1 5 1 .8
1 5 1 .8
100) .
1 4 5 .4
1 4 6 .8
1 4 7 .4
1 4 6 .2
1 4 6 .2
1 4 6 .8
1 4 6 .5
1 4 6 .8
1 4 8 .0
1 4 8 .7
1 4 7 .5
1 4 7 .6
1 4 8 .0
1 4 7 .7
..........................................................................................................................
3 0 8 .7
3 1 6 .5
3 1 8 .0
3 1 8 .6
3 2 1 .0
3 1 1 .8
3 1 9 .7
3 2 4 .3
M i s c e lla n e o u s p r e p a r e d f o o d s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
100)
...............................
O th e r c a n n e d a n d p a c k a g e d p r e p a r e d f o o d s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
Food aw a y fro m h o m e
. . .
1 4 4 .1
3 1 9 .3
3 1 9 .8
3 2 1 .3
3 2 1 .9
3 2 2 .5
3 2 3 .0
L u n c h ( 1 2 /7 7 =
1 0 0 ) .................................................................................................................
1 5 0 .3
1 5 3 .7
1 5 4 ,4
1 5 4 .6
1 5 4 .9
1 5 4 .9
1 5 5 .4
1 5 2 .0
1 5 5 .3
1 5 6 .1
1 5 6 .2
1 5 6 .5
1 5 6 .5
D in n e r ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
1 0 0 ) .................................................................................................................
1 4 8 .6
1 5 2 .0
1 5 2 .5
1 5 2 .7
1 5 3 .1
1 5 3 .4
1 5 3 .9
1 5 0 .3
1 5 3 .7
1 5 4 .2
1 5 4 .4
1 5 4 .8
1 5 5 .1
1 5 5 .6
1 5 0 .7
1 5 6 .0
1 5 7 .1
1 5 7 .9
1 5 8 .2
1 5 8 .6
1 5 9 .5
1 5 1 .3
1 5 6 .5
1 5 7 .7
1 5 8 .4
1 5 8 .7
1 5 9 .1
1 6 0 .0
2 1 0 .1
2 1 5 .1
2 1 6 .1
2 1 6 .6
2 1 7 .0
2 1 7 .2
2 1 7 .1
2 1 2 .1
2 1 7 .3
2 1 8 .5
2 1 9 .1
2 1 9 .6
2 1 9 .8
2 1 9 .7
1 3 6 .1
1 3 9 .1
1 3 9 .7
1 4 0 .0
1 4 0 .3
1 4 0 .7
1 4 0 .3
1 3 7 .4
1 4 0 .6
1 4 1 .3
1 4 1 .7
1 4 2 .0
1 4 2 .5
1 4 2 .1
2 1 0 .9
2 1 8 .6
2 2 1 .2
2 2 1 .5
2 2 2 .8
2 2 3 .6
2 2 3 .2
O th e r m e a ls a n d s n a c k s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
1 0 0 ) ......................................................................
A lc o h o lic be v e ra g e s
A lc o h o lic b e v e r a g e s a t h o m e ( 1 2 /7 7 =
B e e r a n d a le
100)
....................................................
.......................................................................................
1 5 7 .1
2 1 1 .9
2 1 9 .8
2 2 2 .5
2 2 2 .7
2 2 4 .1
2 2 4 .8
2 2 4 .4
W h i s k e y .......................................................................................
1 4 9 .6
1 5 1 .3
1 5 1 .4
1 5 1 .3
1 5 1 .6
1 5 2 .1
1 5 1 .6
1 5 0 .4
1 5 1 .9
1 5 1 .9
1 5 1 .9
1 5 2 .1
1 5 2 .6
1 5 2 .1
W in e
2 3 8 .9
2 3 9 .1
2 3 6 .3
2 3 9 .1
2 3 6 .3
2 3 7 .1
2 3 4 .8
2 4 7 .1
2 4 6 .8
2 4 3 .9
2 4 7 .0
2 4 4 .1
2 4 5 .2
2 4 2 .4
1 2 0 .3
1 2 1 .5
1 2 1 .5
1 2 1 .5
1 2 2 .1
1 2 1 .7
1 2 2 .4
1 2 0 .5
1 2 1 .2
1 2 1 .3
1 2 1 .4
1 2 2 .0
1 2 1 .8
1 2 2 .4
1 4 1 .2
1 4 5 .7
1 4 6 .5
1 4 7 .0
1 4 7 .1
1 4 6 .1
1 4 7 ,3
1 4 2 .4
1 4 6 .9
1 4 7 .7
1 4 8 .2
1 4 8 .3
1 4 7 .1
1 4 8 .5
3 1 9 .2
3 2 0 .3
3 2 1 .3
3 2 2 .3
3 2 3 .1
3 2 4 .3
S h e lte r ( C P I - W ) ...............................................................................................................................
3 4 1 .1
3 4 2 .4
3 4 2 .9
3 4 3 .3
3 4 4 .1
3 4 6 .4
R e n t , r e s i d e n t i a l ............................................................................................................................................
2 3 3 .1
2 3 4 .0
2 3 4 .6
2 3 5 .3
2 3 6 .5
2 3 7 .6
O t h e r r e n t e r s ’ c o s t s ....................................................................................................................................
3 3 9 .0
3 4 2 .3
3 4 5 .5
3 4 5 .8
3 5 0 .4
3 5 4 .0
L o d g in g w h i le o u t o f t o w n .........................................................................................................
3 5 3 .1
3 5 8 .2
3 6 3 .0
3 6 3 .5
3 7 0 .7
3 7 5 .7
T e n a n t s ' in s u r a n c e ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
1 0 0 ) ...................................................................................
1 5 2 .6
1 5 3 .2
1 5 4 .0
1 5 3 .5
153 8
1 5 5 .4
H o m e o w n e r s h i p .............................................................................................................................................
3 7 9 .9
3 8 1 .2
3 8 1 .9
3 8 2 .5
3 8 5 .2
...............................................................................................................................
2 9 8 .9
3 0 1 .0
3 0 3 .9
3 0 3 .5
303 3
3 0 4 .1
F in a n c in g , ta x e s , a n d i n s u r a n c e ............................................................................................
4 9 1 .8
4 9 2 .2
4 8 9 .1
4 9 0 .0
4 9 1 .3
4 9 6 .6
P r o p e r t y i n s u r a n c e ..............................................................................................................
4 1 9 .2
4 2 2 .3
4 2 6 .3
4 3 0 .6
4 3 0 .8
4 3 0 .8
P r o p e r t y ta x e s
.......................................................................................................................
2 3 1 .7
2 3 2 .9
233 8
2 3 4 .6
2 3 5 .1
2 3 7 .1
C o n t r a c t e d m o r t g a g e in t e r e s t c o s t s .......................................................................
6 2 5 .7
6 2 5 .5
6 2 0 .1
6 2 0 .8
6 2 2 .5
6 2 9 .8
...................................................................................................................................
O th e r a lc o h o lic b e v e r a g e s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
1 0 0 ) .............................................................
A l c o h o lic b e v e r a g e s a w a y f r o m h o m e ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
100)
...............................
HO U SIN G
S h e lte r (C P I-U )
...........................................................
3 2 0 .1
3 1 8 .6
3 2 0 .3
3 2 1 .8
3 2 3 .1
3 2 4 .5
3 2 4 .8
3 2 0 .5
3 4 4 .2
3 3 9 .3
3 4 1 .7
3 4 2 .7
3 4 3 .6
3 4 5 .3
3 4 6 .6
3 4 6 .5
101 4
101 8
R e n t e r s ’ c o s t s ............................................................................................
R e n t, r e s id e n t ia l
..........................................................................
O t h e r r e n te r s ’ c o s ts
H o m e o w n e rs ' c o s ts 2
.........................................................
2 2 6 .0
2 3 3 .6
2 3 4 .5
2 3 5 .1
2 3 5 .9
2 3 7 .1
2 3 8 .2
3 3 3 .3
3 3 3 .9
3 4 0 .6
3 4 3 .7
3 4 7 .5
3 4 7 .9
3 5 2 .3
3 5 5 .8
3 5 9 .5
100 9
101 7
10? 0
....................................................
O w n e r s ’ e q u iv a le n t r e n t ..............................................................................................................
1 0 0 .8
H o u s e h o ld i n s u r a n c e .......................................................................................................................
1 0 1 .7
1 0 1 .9
1 0 2 .2
1 0 2 .7
1 0 3 .0
1 0 1 .5
1 0 2 .0
1 0 2 .4
1 0 2 .4
1 0 2 .7
1 0 3 .5
3 3 5 .9
3 3 9 .9
3 4 3 .6
3 4 4 .3
3 4 5 .1
3 4 6 .1
3 4 7 .9
3 3 2 .5
........................................................................................
3 6 8 .5
3 7 6 .7
3 8 2 .8
3 8 2 .7
3 8 1 .6
3 8 3 .3
3 8 8 .6
3 6 9 .6
M a in te n a n c e a n d r e p a ir c o m m o d i t i e s ...............................................................................
2 5 8 .8
2 5 7 .7
2 5 8 .7
2 6 0 .0
2 6 2 .3
2 6 2 .6
2 6 1 .2
2 5 3 .0
M a in te n a n c e a n d r e p a ir s
.......................................................................................................................
M a in te n a n c e a n d r e p a ir s e r v ic e s
H o m e p u rch a se
3 8 1 .7
M o r t g a g e in t e r e s t r a t e s ........................................................................................
2 0 7 .5
2 0 2 .4
2 0 3 .0
2 0 3 .8
2 0 5 .5
M a in te n a n c e a n d r e p a i r s ..............................................................................................................
3 3 7 .5
3 3 9 .0
3 3 9 .9
3 4 1 .0
3 4 2 .0
3 4 4 .3
M a in te n a n c e a n d r e p a ir s e r v i c e s ...............................................................................
3 7 6 .6
3 7 8 .9
3 7 9 .5
3 8 0 .0
3 8 1 .4
3 8 5 .1
M a in te n a n c e a n d r e p a ir c o m m o d i t i e s ...............................................................................
2 5 4 .2
2 5 3 .9
2 5 5 .6
2 5 7 .5
2 5 8 .0
2 5 7 .5
1 4 6 .0
1 4 5 .7
1 4 8 .1
1 4 9 .4
1 4 9 .2
1 4 7 .6
1 2 4 .1
1 2 3 .4
1 2 4 .3
1 2 4 .2
1 2 5 .8
1 2 6 .8
2 0 6 .0
P a in t a n d w a llp a p e r , s u p p lie s , t o o ls , a n d
e q u ip m e n t ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
1 0 0 ) ...........................................................................
L u m b e r , a w n in g s , g la s s , a n d m a s o n r y ( 1 2 /7 7 =
1 0 0 ) ..................
P lu m b in g , e le c t r ic a l, h e a t in g , a n d c o o lin g
s u p p lie s ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
100)
...................................................................................
M is c e lla n e o u s s u p p lie s a n d e q u ip m e n t ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
100
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
1 0 0 ) ..................
1 3 7 .5
1 3 7 .4
1 3 8 .0
1 3 8 .8
1 3 8 .7
1 3 9 .5
1 4 2 .4
1 4 3 .1
1 4 1 .3
1 4 4 .1
1 4 3 .3
1 4 3 .3
20.
C o n tinued— C onsum er Price Index— U.S. city average
[ 1 9 6 7 = 1 0 0 u n le s s o t h e r w i s e s p e c i f i e d ]
All U rban C onsu m ers
G en eral s u m m ary
1982
Aug.
U rban W a g e E a rn e rs an d C le ric a l W o rk e rs
198 3
M a r.
Apr.
M ay
1982
June
July
Aug.
A ug.
1983
M a r.
Apr.
M ay
June
July
A ug.
Fuel and o th e r u tilitie s
3 5 6 .3
3 6 3 .8
3 6 3 .6
3 6 9 .3
3 7 3 .6
3 7 5 .5
3 7 5 .1
3 5 7 .7
3 6 5 .2
3 6 5 .1
3 7 0 .8
3 7 5 .5
3 7 7 .3
3 7 6 .8
F u e l s ......................................................................................................................................................................
4 5 4 .0
4 5 9 .7
4 5 9 .2
4 6 8 .3
4 7 5 .2
4 7 7 .7
4 7 6 .5
4 5 3 .8
4 5 9 .5
4 5 9 .3
4 6 8 .2
4 7 5 .6
477 9
476 6
F u e l o il , c o a l, a n d b o t tle d g a s ................................................................................................
6 5 9 .9
6 2 5 .3
6 1 0 .6
6 2 1 .0
6 2 0 .0
6 1 9 .3
6 1 9 .0
6 6 2 .7
6 2 7 .3
6 1 2 .8
6 2 3 .4
6 2 2 .4
6 2 1 .7
6 2 1 .5
6 8 6 .8
6 3 6 .4
6 1 8 .4
6 2 9 .6
6 2 8 .5
6 2 7 .2
6 2 6 .5
6 8 9 .1
6 3 7 .9
6 2 0 .4
6 3 1 .8
6 3 0 .7
6 2 9 .5
6 2 8 .9
............................................................................................
1 6 9 .2
1 8 5 .9
1 8 6 .7
1 8 8 .6
1 8 8 .6
1 8 9 .3
1 9 0 .0
1 7 0 .5
1 8 7 .0
1 8 7 .7
1 8 9 .7
1 8 9 .5
1 9 0 .2
1 9 0 .8
G a s ( p ip e d ) a n d e l e c t r i c i t y .........................................................................................................
4 0 4 .4
4 1 8 .0
4 2 0 .5
4 2 9 .1
4 3 7 .4
4 4 0 .5
4 3 9 .1
4 0 3 .7
4 1 7 .5
4 2 0 .1
4 2 8 .5
437 4
4 4 0 .3
4 3 8 .7
F u e l o il
........................................................................................................................................
O th e r fu e ls ( 6 /7 8 =
E le c tr ic it y
100)
...................................................................................................................................
U t il it y ( p ip e d ) g a s
.............................................................................................................
3 3 3 .7
3 2 1 .2
3 1 9 .9
3 2 4 .7
337 4
3 4 1 .1
3 4 0 .7
3 3 3 .7
320 7
3 1 9 .3
3 2 4 .2
337 9
3 4 1 .6
3 4 1 .2
5 0 0 .6
5 6 8 .3
5 7 8 .3
5 9 3 .9
5 9 1 .8
5 9 3 .0
5 8 9 .8
4 9 7 .5
5 6 5 .9
5 7 6 .5
5 9 1 .0
5 8 8 .8
5 8 9 .5
5 8 5 .8
2 0 2 .4
2 1 1 .4
2 1 1 .7
2 1 4 .2
2 1 4 .8
2 1 5 .9
H O U S IN G
Fuel and o th e r u tilitie s
O th e r u t ili t i e s a n d p u b lic s e r v ic e s
................................................................................................
T e le p h o n e s e r v i c e s ..........................................................................................................................
L o c a l c h a rg e s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
1 0 0 ) ...................................................................................
2 1 2 .5
2 1 3 .2
2 0 3 .1
212 2
2 1 2 .5
2 1 3 .4
2 1 4 .1
2 1 5 .3
1 6 4 .2
1 7 2 .1
1 7 1 .9
1 7 2 .8
1 7 3 .4
1 7 3 .8
1 7 3 .9
1 6 4 .6
1 7 2 .5
1 7 2 .4
1 7 3 .2
1 7 3 .9
1 7 4 .3
1 3 2 .5
1 4 0 .3
139 9
1 4 0 .9
1 4 1 .8
1 4 1 .8
1 4 2 .1
1 3 2 .9
1 4 0 .6
1 4 0 .3
1 4 1 .3
1 4 2 .2
1 4 2 .3
1 4 2 .6
1 1 9 .7
1 2 1 .8
1 2 1 .8
1 2 1 .8
1 2 1 .8
1 2 1 .9
1 2 1 .9
1 2 0 .1
1 2 2 .2
1 2 2 .3
1 2 2 .3
1 2 2 .2
1 2 2 .3
1 2 2 .4
1 7 4 .5
In te r s ta t e t o ll c a lls ( 1 2 /7 7 =
100)
......................................................................
In tr a s ta t e t o ll c a lls ( 1 2 /7 7 =
100)
......................................................................
1 1 0 .0
1 1 6 .3
1 1 6 .6
1 1 7 .1
1 1 7 .4
1 1 8 .2
1 1 8 .3
109 6
1 1 6 .2
1 1 6 .6
1 1 7 .1
1 1 7 .4
1 1 8 .2
1 1 8 .3
W a te r a n d s e w e r a g e m a in t e n a n c e ........................................................................................
3 3 1 .9
3 4 5 .6
3 4 7 .5
3 4 8 .2
3 4 8 .9
353 5
3 5 5 .9
334 8
3 4 9 .0
3 5 0 .8
3 5 1 .8
3 5 2 .6
3 5 7 .7
3 6 0 .2
2 3 3 .4
2 3 7 .6
2 3 9 .9
2 3 8 .4
2 3 8 .6
. 238 9
2 3 8 .0
2 3 0 .0
234 6
2 3 6 .0
2 3 5 .4
2 3 5 .5
2 3 5 .8
234 8
H o us e hold fu rn is h in g s a nd o p eratio n s
H o u s e f u r n is h in g s
........................................................................................................................................
1 9 3 .3
1 9 7 .1
1 9 8 .7
1 9 7 .6
1 9 7 .8
1 9 8 .1
1 9 6 .7
1 9 1 .3
1 9 5 .3
1 9 6 .7
1 9 5 .8
1 9 5 .9
1 9 6 .1
1 9 4 .7
T e x t ile h o u s e f u r n i s h i n g s .............................................................................................................
2 2 0 .4
2 3 0 .3
2 2 9 .4
2 2 8 .7
2 2 6 .8
2 2 7 .3
2 2 6 .1
2 2 2 .9
2 3 4 .8
2 3 3 .6
2 3 2 .7
2 3 0 .5
2 3 1 .1
2 2 9 .6
1 3 2 .9
1 3 6 .7
1 3 4 .2
1 3 6 .2
1 3 5 .4
1 3 4 .4
133 4
1 3 4 .1
1 3 7 .9
1 3 5 .3
1 3 7 .3
1 3 6 .4
1 3 5 .6
1 3 4 .5
H o u s e h o ld lin e n s ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
100)
..........................................................................
C u r ta in s , d r a p e s , s lip c o v e r s , a n d s e w in g
m a te r ia ls ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
100)
........................................................................................
F u r n it u r e a n d b e d d i n g ............................................................................................
B e d ro o m fu r n itu r e ( 1 2 /7 7 =
S o fa s ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
100)
100)
............................................
.................................................................
L iv in g r o o m c h a ir s a n d t a b le s ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
O th e r f u r n i t u r e ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
A p p lia n c e s in c lu d in g T V a n d s o u n d e q u ip m e n t
T e le v is io n a n d s o u n d e q u ip m e n t
.......................................
......................................................................
T e l e v i s i o n .........................................................
S o u n d e q u ip m e n t ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
H o u s e h o ld a p p lia n c e s
1 5 0 .9
1 5 2 .4
1 4 9 .4
1 4 7 .7
1 4 9 .3
1 4 9 .0
1 4 4 .7
1 5 6 .2
1 5 7 .8
1 5 4 .1
1 5 2 .1
1 5 4 .0
1 5 3 .3
2 1 5 .8
2 2 1 .6
2 2 0 .0
220 0
2 2 0 .5
2 1 7 .2
2 0 6 .9
2 1 3 .2
2 1 8 .1
2 1 6 .7
2 1 6 .5
217 6
2 1 4 .3
1 4 1 .4
1 4 8 .9
152 9
1 5 1 .9
1 5 2 .3
1 5 6 .5
1 5 1 .3
1 3 7 .3
1 4 6 .0
1 4 9 .4
1 4 8 .8
1 4 8 .9
1 5 3 .0
1 4 8 .2
1 1 7 .0
1 0 0 ) ............................................
.............................................................
100)
142 2
2 1 0 .3
1 0 0 ) ................................................
......................................................................
R e f r ig e r a t o r s a n d h o m e f r e e z e r s .......................................
1 1 8 .9
1 1 8 .1
1 1 8 .0
1 1 7 .7
1 1 7 .3
1 1 7 .5
1 1 8 .9
1 1 9 .1
1 1 8 .6
1 1 8 .3
1 1 8 .0
1 1 7 .6
1 2 1 .1
1 2 2 .0
1 2 6 .2
1 2 3 .9
1 2 4 .2
123 9
1 2 3 .5
1 2 1 .4
1 2 2 .6
1 2 6 .6
1 2 4 .5
1 2 4 .9
1 2 5 .0
1 2 4 .5
1 3 7 .1
1 3 9 .7
1 4 4 .6
1 4 4 .5
1 4 3 .8
1 4 1 .1
1 3 9 .8
1 3 3 .3
1 3 6 .0
1 3 9 .8
1 3 9 .0
1 3 7 .1
1 3 5 .6
1 5 1 .3
1 5 1 .9
152 3
1 5 1 .2
1 5 1 .4
1 5 0 .9
1 5 0 .6
1 5 1 .2
1 5 1 .7
1 5 2 .4
1 5 1 .7
1 5 1 .9
1 5 1 .2
1 5 0 .8
1 0 8 .3
1 0 6 .9
1 0 7 .1
1 0 6 .1
1 0 5 .9
1 0 5 .2
1 0 5 .1
1 0 7 .5
1 0 5 .9
106 2
1 0 5 .1
1 0 5 .0
1 0 4 .3
1 0 4 .3
1 0 3 .9
1 0 1 .2
1 0 0 .9
1 0 0 .2
1 1 3 .3
1 1 3 .1
1 1 3 .6
1 1 2 .3
1 1 1 .6
1 1 0 .8
1 1 0 .6
1 1 2 .6
1 1 1 .9
1 1 2 .6
1 1 1 .3
1 1 0 .5
1 0 9 .8
1 0 9 .7
1 8 4 .1
1 8 7 .7
1 8 8 .5
. 1 8 7 .8
1 8 8 .4
1 8 8 .6
1 8 8 .0
1 8 4 .6
1 8 8 .0
188 9
188 9
1 8 9 .5
1 8 9 .0
1 8 8 .0
1 8 7 .4
1 1 8 .3
1 9 3 .3
1 9 3 .3
1 9 4 .1
1 0 0 .8
1 9 4 .0
1 0 0 .1
1 9 2 .7
1 0 0 .1
1 9 1 .4
1 0 2 .7
1 9 2 .9
9 9 .9
1 9 8 .9
1 4 0 .2
9 9 .7
199 2
9 9 .0
9 9 .6
99 0
9 9 .0
2 0 0 .3
2 0 0 .2
1 9 9 .2
1 9 7 .2
L a u n d r y e q u i p m e n t .........................................................
1 3 7 .3
1 4 2 .5
1 4 2 .7
1 4 3 .5
1 4 4 .6
1 4 3 .0
1 4 2 .0
1 3 7 .5
1 4 2 .9
1 4 3 .6
1 4 4 .6
1 4 5 .2
1 4 3 .5
1 4 2 .8
O th e r h o u s e h o ld a p p lia n c e s ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
1 2 4 .3
1 2 4 .6
1 2 5 .4
1 2 4 .3
1 2 4 .7
125 6
1 2 5 .4
1 2 2 .7
1 2 2 .7
1 2 3 .5
1 2 2 .6
1 2 3 .2
1 2 3 .6
1 2 3 .4
1 2 2 .7
1 2 4 .2
1 2 5 .0
1 2 3 .2
1 2 3 .9
1 2 4 .0
1 2 3 .7
1 2 1 .4
1 2 2 .4
1 2 3 .3
1 2 1 .7
1 2 2 .8
1 2 2 .6
1 2 2 .1
1 2 6 .0
1 2 5 .2
1 2 6 .1
1 2 5 .5
125 7
1 2 7 .3
1 2 7 .2
1 2 4 .2
122 9
1 2 3 .8
1 2 3 .6
1 2 3 .7
1 2 4 .8
1 2 4 .8
1 3 8 .4
1 3 8 .0
1 3 9 .0
1 3 9 .7
138 9
100)
S t o v e s , d is h w a s h e r s , v a c u u m s , a n d s e w in g
m a c h in e s ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
1 0 0 ) ............................................
O ffic e m a c h in e s , s m a ll e le c t r ic a p p lia n c e s ,
a n d a ir c o n d it io n e r s ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
O th e r h o u s e h o ld e q u ip m e n t ( 1 2 /7 7 =
1 0 0 ) ...............................
1 0 0 ) ..................
138 2
1 4 0 .7
1 4 0 .4
1 3 9 .9
1 4 1 .2
1 4 2 .0
1 4 1 .2
1 3 6 .0
138 6
142 9
1 4 3 .0
1 4 3 .2
1 4 3 .2
1 4 2 .2
1 4 5 .1
1 4 4 ,4
1 3 5 .4
1 3 5 .0
1 3 5 .3
1 3 5 .5
1 3 4 .3
1 3 7 .3
1 3 6 .4
1 2 9 .8
1 3 3 .9
1 3 3 .3
1 3 2 .5
1 3 3 .0
1 3 3 .6
1 3 2 .3
1 2 5 .1
1 2 9 .2
1 2 8 .3
128 3
128 8
1 2 9 .3
1 2 8 .3
1 4 3 .8
1 4 6 ,4
1 4 5 .5
1 4 5 .1
1 4 9 .2
1 4 9 .1
1 4 8 .7
1 4 0 .0
1 4 2 .6
142 0
1 4 1 .6
1 4 5 .0
1 4 4 .9
1 4 4 .4
1 3 2 .3
1 3 5 .5
135 9
1 3 5 .1
1 3 5 .0
1 3 5 .5
1 3 4 .2
1 3 7 .2
1 4 0 .9
1 4 1 .4
1 4 0 .2
1 3 9 .9
1 4 0 .4
1 3 9 .3
F lo o r a n d w in d o w c o v e r in g s , in f a n t s ', la u n d r y ,
c le a n in g , a n d o u t d o o r e q u ip m e n t ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
C lo c k s , la m p s , a n d d e c o r it e m s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
100)
100)
. . .
. . .
T a b le w a r e , s e r v in g p ie c e s , a n d n o n e le c tr ic
k it c h e n w a r e ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
100) . . .
.
L a w n e q u ip m e n t , p o w e r t o o ls , a n d o t h e r
h a rd w a re ( 1 2 /7 7 =
H o u s e k e e p in g s u p p lie s
100)
............................................
...................................
S o a p s a n d d e t e r g e n t s .........................................................
O th e r la u n d r y a n d c le a n in g p r o d u c ts ( 1 2 /7 7 =
100)
C le a n s in g a n d t o ile t t is s u e , p a p e r t o w e ls a n d n a p k in s ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
S t a tio n e r y , s ta t io n e r y s u p p lie s , a n d g if t w r a p ( 1 2 /7 7 =
M is c e lla n e o u s h o u s e h o ld p r o d u c t s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
100)
100)
100)
2 8 8 .7
2 9 5 .4
2 9 6 .9
2 9 6 .6
2 9 6 .3
296 8
2 9 5 .8
2 8 4 .9
2 9 2 .2
2 9 3 .9
2 9 3 .6
2 9 3 .2
2 9 3 .5
292 7
2 7 9 .4
2 9 2 .3
2 9 4 .5
2 9 4 .5
2 9 4 .9
2 9 4 .6
2 9 4 .4
2 7 5 .4
2 8 8 .1
290 4
290 6
2 9 0 .9
2 9 0 .3
2 9 0 .2
1 4 4 .6
1 4 9 .5
1 5 0 .6
1 5 0 .3
1 5 1 .5
1 5 1 .4
1 5 1 .0
1 4 3 .6
1 4 8 .3
1 4 9 .5
1 4 9 .2
150 4
1 5 0 .2
149 8
1 4 8 .5
1 4 9 .3
1 4 8 .8
1 4 8 .0
1 4 7 .3
1 4 8 .1
1 4 8 .1
1 4 8 .3
1 4 9 .1
1 4 8 .9
1 4 8 .0
1 4 7 .4
148 2
148 1
1 3 5 .4
1 3 9 .3
1 3 9 .6
1 3 9 .8
1 3 9 .9
1 4 0 .3
1 3 9 .5
1 3 8 .6
1 4 2 .3
1 4 2 .7
143 2
142 5
1 4 2 .9
142 8
1 5 0 .7
1 5 4 .4
1 5 4 .5
1 5 4 .4
1 5 4 .0
1 5 3 .9
1 5 4 .1
1 4 5 .5
1 4 9 .2
1 4 9 .2
1 4 9 .1
1 4 8 .7
148 6
148 8
1 4 5 .7
1 4 5 .0
1 4 7 .2
1 4 7 .3
1 4 5 .8
1 4 6 .6
1 4 4 .6
1 3 8 .1
1 3 8 .5
1 4 1 .4
1 4 1 .4
1 3 9 .4
1 3 9 .7
1 3 7 .8
3 1 2 .9
3 1 6 .4
3 1 7 .1
3 1 8 .0
3 1 8 .5
3 1 8 .7
3 1 9 .3
3 1 2 .2
3 1 6 .1
3 1 6 .5
3 1 7 .5
318 0
3 1 8 .3
3 1 9 .1
3 3 7 .5
3 3 7 .5
3 3 7 ,5
3 3 7 .5
3 3 7 .5
3 3 7 .5
3 3 7 .5
3 3 7 .5
3 3 7 .5
3 3 7 .5
3 3 7 .5
3 3 7 .5
3 3 7 .5
3 3 7 .5
1 5 6 .1
1 6 0 .6
1 6 0 .8
1 6 1 .7
1 6 2 .3
1 6 2 .2
1 6 2 .8
1 5 6 .4
1 6 0 .7
1 6 0 .8
1 6 1 .7
162 3
162 3
163 1
1 3 7 .7
1 4 1 .5
1 4 1 .7
1 4 2 .9
1 4 3 .3
1 4 4 .0
1 4 4 .9
1 3 6 .1
1 3 9 .8
1 4 0 .0
1 4 1 .2
1 4 1 .6
1 4 2 .2
1 4 3 .1
APPAREL ANO UPKEEP
1 9 1 .8
1 9 4 .5
1 9 5 .5
1 9 6 .1
1 9 5 .6
1 9 5 .0
1 9 7 .3
1 9 0 .7
1 9 4 .0
1 9 4 .8
1 9 5 .3
1 9 4 .7
1 9 4 .0
1 9 6 .3
A p p a re l c o m m o d itie s
1 8 0 .8
1 8 2 .8
1 8 3 .7
1 8 4 .2
183 6
182 8
1 8 5 .3
1 8 0 .3
1 8 2 .9
183 5
1 8 3 .9
1 8 3 .2
1 8 2 .4
1 8 4 .7
A p p a r e l c o m m o d it ie s le s s f o o tw e a r .
1 7 6 .9
1 7 8 .9
1 7 9 .4
1 8 0 .2
1 7 9 .7
1 7 9 .3
1 8 1 .9
1 7 6 .2
1 7 8 .9
1 7 9 .4
M e n 's a n d b o y s ' ..........................
1 7 9 .8
1 7 9 .2
178 7
181 2
1 8 3 .7
1 8 6 .7
1 8 7 .8
1 8 9 .5
1 8 9 .1
1 8 8 .2
1 8 8 .3
1 8 3 .5
1 8 7 .0
1 8 7 .9
1 8 9 .7
1 8 9 .0
1 8 8 .1
115 9
1 1 7 .1
1 1 7 .9
1 1 9 .2
1 1 8 .8
1 1 8 .3
1 1 8 .5
1 1 6 .2
1 1 7 .6
1 1 8 .3
1 1 9 .9
1 1 9 .2
118 7
118 9
1 0 8 .0
1 0 9 .1
1 1 0 .3
110 9
1 1 1 .2
1 1 0 .7
1 1 1 .4
1 0 1 .2
1 0 2 .1
1 0 3 .5
1 0 3 .9
1 0 3 .9
103 3
104 4
99 1
1 0 0 .0
1 0 0 .0
1 0 1 .1
1 0 0 .7
9 8 .2
9 9 .5
1 0 0 .3
1 0 2 .2
1 0 2 .4
1 0 4 .3
103 3
100 7
101 7
1 3 8 .4
1 4 1 .4
1 4 2 .8
1 4 4 .5
1 4 4 .3
1 4 5 .3
1 4 4 .8
1 3 4 .9
1 3 7 .6
1 3 8 .6
1 4 0 .4
1 4 0 .3
141 3
140 8
1 2 1 .9
1 2 1 .7
1 2 2 .0
1 2 4 .6
1 2 2 .6
1 2 0 .9
1 2 1 .6
123 9
1 2 4 .4
1 2 5 .0
1 2 7 .6
1 2 5 .8
124 2
1 2 4 .7
L a w n a n d g a r d e n s u p p lie s ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
H o u s e k e e p in g s e r v ic e s
100)
.................
P o s t a g e .............................................................
M o v in g , s to r a g e , f r e i g h t , h o u s e h o ld la u n d r y , a n d
d r y c le a n in g s e r v ic e s ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
1 0 0 ) ......................
A p p lia n c e a n d f u r n i t u r e r e p a ir ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
M e n 's ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
100)
100)
..................
S u its , s p o r t c o a t s , a n d ja c k e t s ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
100)
. .
C o a ts a n d j a c k e t s ...................................
F u r n is h in g s a n d s p e c ia l c lo t h in g ( 1 2 /7 7 =
D u n g a r e e s , je a n s , a n d t r o u s e r s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
B o y s ’ (1 2 /7 7 =
100)
100)
100)
...................................
C o a ts , ja c k e t s , s w e a t e r s , a n d s h ir t s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
F u r n is h in g s ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
100)
100)
. . .
S u its , t r o u s e r s , s p o r t c o a ts , a n d ja c k e ts ( 1 2 /7 7 =
W o m e n 's a n d g ir ls '
...............................
W o m e n 's ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
.
1 0 0 ) ..........................
S h ir t s ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
100)
. . . .
100)
. .
1 1 0 .5
1 1 1 .5
1 1 2 .0
1 1 3 .2
1 1 3 .0
1 1 2 .8
1 1 2 .3
1 1 6 .0
1 1 7 .4
1 1 7 .7
1 1 9 .1
118 6
118 4
1 1 8 .4
1 2 3 .2
1 2 3 .5
1 2 3 .3
1 2 3 .7
1 2 3 .0
1 2 2 .6
1 1 6 .7
1 2 1 .4
1 2 1 .5
121 4
121 6
120 9
1 8 8 .3
120 7
1 1 0 .5
1 1 5 .5
1 1 5 .2
1 1 5 .4
1 1 6 .3
1 1 4 .9
1 1 5 .4
1 1 3 .3
1 1 6 .4
1 1 5 .7
1 1 6 .1
116 6
115 5
116 2
1 3 1 .1
1 3 4 .0
1 3 4 .9
1 3 6 .1
1 3 5 .8
1 3 4 .9
1 3 4 .2
1 2 7 .2
1 2 9 .6
1 3 0 .4
1 3 1 .6
131 2
130 4
129 9
1 1 9 .5
1 2 4 .9
1 2 5 .5
1 2 4 .4
1 2 4 .7
1 2 4 .6
1 2 3 .5
1 1 7 .1
1 2 2 .3
1 2 2 .6
1 2 1 .7
121 9
121 6
120 7
1 5 9 .2
1 6 0 .0
1 6 0 .6
1 6 0 .1
1 5 9 .7
1 5 8 .8
1 6 4 .2
1 6 0 .9
1 6 2 .8
1 6 3 .1
1 6 2 .4
1 6 1 .5
160 8
165 8
1 0 5 .4
1 0 6 .2
1 0 6 .5
1 0 6 .1
1 0 6 .1
1 0 5 .5
1 0 9 .5
1 0 6 .9
1 0 8 .4
1 0 8 .3
1 0 7 .6
1 0 7 .4
107 0
111 1
C o a ts a n d j a c k e t s .......................................
1 6 3 .0
1 7 0 .1
1 6 8 .1
1 6 4 .7
1 6 4 .7
1 6 4 .8
1 7 1 .6
1 7 1 .0
D re s s e s
1 7 8 .4
1 7 7 .1
1 7 2 .7
1 7 1 .8
1 6 9 .4
1 7 5 .3
1 5 8 .5
1 5 8 .5
1 6 1 .5
1 6 2 .7
1 6 4 .3
1 6 1 .4
1 7 1 .4
1 4 5 .9
1 4 4 .4
1 4 5 .7
1 4 6 .7
1 4 8 .8
1 4 7 .2
1 5 8 .7
............................................
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
101
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • Current Labor Statistics: Consumer Prices
20.
C ontinued— C onsum er Price Index— U.S. city average
[ 1 9 6 7 = 1 0 0 u n le s s o t h e r w i s e s p e c if ie d ]
All U rban C onsu m ers
G en eral s u m m ary
1 982
Aug.
U rban W a g e E arners and C le ric a l W o rk e rs
198 3
M ay
1982
1983
M a r.
Apr.
9 8 .3
9 8 .5
1 0 0 .1
9 8 .1
9 7 .7
9 6 .3
9 9 .4
9 9 .1
9 9 .2
1 0 1 .0
9 8 .9
98 4
9 6 .9
9 9 .7
1 2 9 .3
1 3 1 .0
1 3 1 .1
1 3 3 .0
1 3 2 .8
1 3 1 .7
1 3 3 .2
1 2 9 .0
1 3 0 .7
1 3 0 .8
1 3 2 .7
1 3 2 .4
1 3 1 .4
1 3 2 .9
June
July
A ug.
A ug.
M a r.
Apr.
M ay
June
July
A ug.
APP AREL A N D UPK EEP— C ontinued
A p p a re l C o m m o d itie s — Continued
A p p a r e l c o m m o d it ie s le s s f o o tw e a r — C o n tin u e d
S e p a r a te s a n d s p o r ts w e a r ( 1 2 /7 7 =
100)
.......................................
U n d e r w e a r , n ig h tw e a r , a n d h o s ie r y ( 1 2 /7 7 =
S u its ( 1 2 / 7 7 G ir ls ' ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
100)
.................
1 0 0 ) ............................................................................................
8 5 .6
8 3 .7
8 0 .5
7 7 .8
7 7 .2
8 1 .0
8 7 .3
9 9 .8
1 0 4 .7
9 9 .4
9 5 .9
93 9
9 9 .8
1 0 8 .1
1 0 0 ) .........................................................................................................
1 0 8 .2
1 0 7 .6
1 0 8 .2
1 0 8 .4
1 0 6 .5
1 0 6 .2
1 0 7 .7
1 0 7 .4
1 0 8 .0
1 0 9 .2
1 0 9 .4
1 0 7 .4
1 0 6 .6
1 0 6 .8
1 0 0 ) ......................
1 0 1 .4
9 8 .4
9 7 .1
9 6 .3
9 6 .3
1 0 0 .1
1 0 1 .9
9 9 .4
9 7 .6
9 8 .5
9 7 .3
9 6 .5
1 0 0 .0
9 8 .7
.......................................
1 0 5 .8
1 0 5 .6
1 0 7 .5
1 0 8 .1
1 0 3 .5
9 9 .8
1 0 2 .0
1 0 5 .9
1 0 7 .5
1 0 9 .1
1 1 0 .3
1 0 6 .1
1 0 1 .3
1 0 2 .9
C o a ts , ja c k e t s , d r e s s e s , a n d s u it s ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
S e p a r a te s a n d s p o r ts w e a r ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
100)
U n d e r w e a r , n ig h tw e a r , h o s ie r y , a n d
a c c e s s o r ie s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
I n f a n t s ' a n d t o d d le r s '
1 0 0 ) ......................................................................
1 2 4 .0
1 2 6 .4
1 2 7 .8
1 2 8 .6
1 2 8 .6
1 2 7 .7
1 2 7 .8
1 2 3 .0
..................................................................................................................
2 7 2 .4
2 8 0 .1
2 8 0 .4
2 8 0 .7
2 8 3 .0
2 8 2 .4
2 8 1 .9
2 8 3 .0
2 9 1 .1
2 9 1 .0
2 9 0 .9
2 9 3 .4
293 1
2 9 2 .3
2 1 0 .8
2 1 3 .4
2 1 4 .4
2 1 5 .0
2 1 4 .0
2 1 5 .9
2 1 6 .2
1 9 9 .5
2 0 1 .9
2 0 2 .5
203 3
2 0 3 .0
2 0 4 .6
2 0 4 .6
1 1 9 .8
O t h e r a p p a r e l c o m m o d it ie s
.....................................................................................................
S e w in g m a te r ia ls a n d n o t io n s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
1 2 6 .9
1 2 7 .4
1 2 7 .5
1 2 6 .8
1 2 6 .7
............................................
1 2 1 .5
1 2 0 .4
1 2 1 .8
1 2 2 .9
1 2 2 .4
1 2 3 .0
1 2 1 .6
1 1 9 .6
1 1 8 .4
1 1 9 .4
1 2 0 .6
1 2 0 .5
1 2 1 .0
.................................................................
1 4 2 .6
1 4 5 .4
1 4 5 .8
1 4 5 .9
1 4 5 .1
1 4 6 .7
1 4 7 .5
1 3 3 .3
1 3 6 .1
1 3 6 .2
1 3 6 .5
1 3 6 .2
1 3 7 .4
1 3 8 .0
F o o t w e a r .............................................................................................................................................................
2 0 4 .4
2 0 6 .6
2 0 7 .5
2 0 8 .0
2 0 6 .8
2 0 3 .8
2 0 5 .7
2 0 4 .1
2 0 6 .1
2 0 7 .2
2 0 7 .7
2 0 6 .6
2 0 3 .7
2 0 5 .5
1 3 2 .7
1 3 4 .8
J e w e lr y a n d lu g g a g e ( 1 2 /7 7 =
M e n 's ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
100)
100)
1 2 5 .6
1 0 0 ) ..................................................................................................................
1 3 0 .9
1 3 3 .2
1 3 3 .9
1 3 3 .7
1 3 3 .7
1 3 2 .8
1 3 2 .3
1 3 5 .6
1 3 5 .4
1 3 5 .5
1 3 4 .7
1 3 4 .2
B o y s ’ a n d g ir ls ' ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
1 0 0 ) ............................................................................................
1 2 8 .7
1 3 1 .1
1 3 0 .7
1 3 1 .7
1 3 0 .7
1 2 8 .9
1 3 0 .3
1 3 1 .3
1 3 3 .2
1 3 3 .4
1 3 4 .3
1 3 3 .1
1 3 1 .0
1 3 2 .6
W o m e n 's ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
.........................................................................................................
1 2 5 .4
1 2 5 .5
1 2 6 .5
1 2 6 .9
1 2 5 .6
1 2 2 .9
1 2 5 .3
1 2 1 .1
1 2 1 .1
1 2 2 .0
122 5
1 2 1 .3
1 1 8 .9
1 2 1 .1
290 4
100)
A p p a re l s e rv ic e s
2 7 7 .4
2 8 6 .7
2 8 8 .7
2 9 0 .3
2 9 0 .9
2 9 1 .8
2 9 2 .3
2 7 5 .2
2 8 4 .9
2 8 7 .1
288 6
2 8 9 .2
2 9 0 .0
..................
1 6 5 .6
1 7 0 .8
1 7 1 .7
1 7 2 .8
1 7 3 .5
1 7 4 .1
1 7 4 .5
1 6 4 .1
1 6 9 .3
1 7 0 .3
1 7 1 .3
1 7 1 .9
1 7 2 .5
1 7 2 .9
1 0 0 ) ........................................................................................
1 4 5 .0
1 5 0 .4
1 5 2 .0
1 5 2 .5
1 5 2 .4
1 5 2 .7
1 5 2 .7
1 4 5 .5
1 5 1 .4
1 5 3 .1
1 5 3 .7
1 5 3 .7
1 5 3 .9
1 5 3 .9
2 8 7 .4
292 3
2 9 6 .2
2 9 8 .3
3 0 0 .4
3 0 2 .4
2 9 8 .0
2 8 8 .6
2 9 3 .5
2 9 7 .5
2 9 9 .6
3 0 1 .9
3 0 4 .1
298 6
3 0 0 .8
2 0 1 .0
2 0 1 .7
L a u n d r y a n d d r y c le a n in g o t h e r t h a n c o in o p e r a te d ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
O th e r a p p a r e l s e r v ic e s ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
100)
T R A N SPO R TA TIO N
2 9 6 .2
P riv a te
2 9 2 .4
282 7
2 8 7 .5
2 9 1 .7
2 9 3 .8
2 9 6 .0
2 9 8 .0
2 9 5 .2
2 8 5 .0
2 8 9 .9
2 9 4 .1
2 9 6 .3
N e w c a r s .........................................................................................................................................................
1 9 8 .7
2 0 1 .2
2 0 1 .1
2 0 1 .6
2 0 1 .6
2 0 1 .4
2 0 2 .1
1 9 8 .6
2 0 0 .9
2 0 0 .7
2 0 1 .3
2 0 1 .2
U se d c a rs
G a s o lin e
.........................................................................................................................................................
304 4
3 0 9 .3
3 1 2 .7
3 1 7 .1
3 2 2 .7
3 2 9 .6
3 3 6 .8
3 0 4 .4
3 0 9 .3
3 1 2 .7
3 1 7 .1
3 2 2 .7
329 6
3 3 6 .8
3 9 8 .4
3 4 8 .6
3 6 7 .6
3 8 0 .9
3 8 6 .1
3 8 9 .3
3 8 9 .5
3 9 9 .7
3 5 0 .3
3 6 9 .3
3 8 2 .4
3 8 7 .4
3 9 0 .6
3 9 1 .0
3 1 9 .2
3 2 6 .6
3 2 7 .4
3 2 8 .7
3 2 9 .5
3 2 9 .8
3 3 1 .0
3 2 0 .0
3 2 7 .4
3 2 8 .1
3 2 9 .4
330 2
3 3 0 .4
3 3 1 .7
1 5 8 .2
1 6 3 .6
1 6 4 .7
1 6 5 .5
1 6 6 .4
1 6 6 .6
1 6 7 .1
1 5 6 .8
1 6 2 .5
1 6 3 .4
1 6 4 .3
1 6 5 .3
1 6 5 .6
1 6 6 .0
...............................................................................
1 9 8 .7
1 5 6 .3
1 5 7 .3
1 5 7 .7
1 5 7 .7
1 5 8 .3
1 5 8 .9
1 5 6 .6
1 6 0 .3
1 6 1 .2
1 6 1 .6
1 6 1 .7
1 6 2 .2
1 0 0 ) ............................................
1 4 8 .5
1 5 0 .9
1 5 1 .0
1 5 1 .7
1 5 2 .2
1 5 2 .0
1 5 2 .8
1 4 7 .8
1 5 0 .3
1 5 0 .4
1 5 1 .0
1 5 1 .5
1 5 1 .3
1 5 2 .2
.................................................................
1 5 2 .4
1 5 6 .2
1 5 6 .2
1 5 6 .8
1 5 7 .0
1 5 7 .3
1 5 7 .5
1 5 1 .9
1 5 5 .6
1 5 5 .7
1 5 6 .3
1 5 6 .4
1 5 6 .6
1 5 6 .9
2 6 0 .8
2 5 9 .2
2 5 8 .4
2 5 8 .7
2 5 8 .1
2 5 8 .6
2 6 0 .0
2 6 3 .9
2 6 0 .5
2 5 9 .3
2 5 9 .6
2 5 8 .9
2 5 9 .4
2 6 1 .1
2 1 4 .8
2 1 3 .3
2 1 2 .2
2 1 0 .9
2 1 0 .4
2 0 9 .6
2 0 8 .9
2 1 7 .1
2 1 5 .8
2 1 4 .7
2 1 3 .3
2 1 2 .9
2 1 2 .1
2 1 1 .2
1 5 3 .2
1 5 4 .8
1 5 6 .1
1 5 5 .1
1 5 6 .0
1 5 5 .3
1 5 3 .5
1 5 1 .8
1 5 3 .8
1 5 5 .0
1 5 3 .9
1 5 4 .8
1 5 4 .1
1 3 6 .8
1 3 5 .5
1 3 4 .5
1 3 3 .6
1 3 3 .2
1 3 2 .7
1 3 2 .4
1 3 8 .6
1 3 7 .4
1 3 6 .4
1 3 5 .4
1 3 5 .0
1 3 4 .5
1 3 4 .1
1 8 9 .5
1 8 8 .1
1 8 6 .4
1 8 5 .1
1 8 4 .3
1 8 3 .5
1 8 3 .4
1 9 3 .0
1 9 1 .7
1 9 0 .1
1 8 8 .8
1 8 7 .9
1 8 7 .2
1 8 6 .9
1 3 5 .8
1 3 3 .9
1 3 3 .4
1 3 2 .7
1 3 2 .7
1 3 2 .3
...................................................................................................................................
A u t o m o b i le m a in te n a n c e a n d r e p a ir
B o d y w o rk ( 1 2 /7 7 =
100)
............................................................................................
...................................................................................
A u t o m o b ile d r iv e t r a in , b r a k e , a n d m is c e lla n e o u s
m e c h a n ic a l r e p a ir ( 1 2 /7 7 =
100)
M a in te n a n c e a n d s e r v ic in g ( 1 2 /7 7 =
P o w e r p la n t r e p a ir ( 1 2 /7 7
=
100)
O th e r p r iv a te t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ........................................................................................
O th e r p r iv a te t r a n s p o r t a t io n c o m m o d it ie s
................. - ...............................
M o t o r o il , c o o la n t , a n d o t h e r p r o d u c ts ( 1 2 /7 7 =
A u t o m o b ile p a r ts a n d e q u ip m e n t ( 1 2 /7 7
T ir e s
=
100)
100)
. .
......................
.........................................................................................................
O th e r p a r ts a n d e q u ip m e n t ( 1 2 /7 7 =
1 0 0 ) ...............................
O t h e r p r iv a te t r a n s p o r t a t io n s e r v i c e s ...................................
A u t o m o b ile in s u r a n c e
................................................
A u t o m o b ile f in a n c e c h a r g e s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
100)
......................
A u t o m o b ile r e n ta l, r e g is tr a t io n , a n d o t h e r fe e s ( 1 2 / 7 7
S ta te r e g is tr a t io n
=
100) , .
.............................................................
=
D r iv e r s ’ lic e n s e s ( 1 2 /7 7
1 0 0 ) ..........................
1 6 2 .8
1 5 2 .6
1 3 1 .6
1 3 6 .0
1 3 3 .8
1 3 3 .4
1 3 2 .4
132 5
1 3 2 .1
2 7 5 .5
2 7 3 .9
2 7 3 .1
2 7 3 .9
2 7 3 .3
2 7 4 .1
2 7 6 .0
278 9
2 7 4 .8
2 7 3 .7
2 7 4 .4
2 7 3 .6
2 7 4 .5
2 7 6 .8
2 7 5 .8
2 9 7 .0
2 9 9 .0
3 0 1 .2
3 0 1 .1
3 0 2 .4
3 0 2 .9
2 7 5 .2
2 9 6 .3
2 9 8 .2
3 0 0 .5
3 0 0 .5
3 0 2 .0
3 0 2 .5
1 5 5 .4
1 3 1 .3
1 9 3 .5
1 6 1 .9
1 5 7 .3
1 5 4 .5
1 5 2 .2
1 5 1 .7
1 9 2 .9
1 6 1 .0
1 5 6 .6
1 5 3 .8
1 5 1 .4
1 5 1 .1
1 5 5 .0
1 3 8 .0
1 4 1 .1
1 4 1 .4
1 4 3 .8
1 4 4 .7
1 4 5 .6
1 4 6 .0
1 3 8 .8
1 4 1 .9
1 4 2 .2
1 4 4 .9
1 4 6 .0
1 4 6 .9
1 4 7 .2
1 8 3 .8
1 8 6 .6
1 8 6 .6
1 9 2 .3
1 9 2 .3
1 9 4 .8
1 9 4 .6
1 8 3 .4
1 8 6 .3
1 8 6 .3
1 9 2 .1
1 9 2 .1
1 9 4 .7
1 9 4 .5
1 3 2 .8
1 3 3 .9
1 3 3 .9
1 3 3 .9
1 5 0 .3
1 5 2 .9
1 5 3 .0
1 3 3 .1
1 3 4 .1
1 3 4 .1
1 3 4 .1
1 5 0 .6
1 5 3 .4
153 4
1 2 8 .5
1 2 9 .2
1 3 1 .1
1 3 1 .2
1 3 1 .2
1 3 9 .0
1 3 9 .0
1 2 9 .9
1 3 0 .5
1 3 2 .4
1 3 2 .5
1 3 2 .5
1 3 9 .8
139 8
1 5 1 .9
1 5 7 .0
1 5 7 .6
1 5 8 .5
1 5 9 .0
1 5 7 .9
1 5 8 .8
1 5 9 .4
1 6 5 .1
1 6 5 .4
1 6 6 .5
1 6 7 .0
1 6 5 .5
1 6 6 .3
3 4 8 .1
3 5 4 .5
3 6 1 .1
3 5 9 .1
3 6 1 .2
3 6 3 .2
3 6 5 .0
3 4 1 .0
3 4 7 .3
3 5 3 .3
3 5 1 .2
3 5 2 .7
3 5 4 .4
3 5 5 .7
A ir lin e f a r e ..................................................................
3 9 7 .5
4 0 2 .9
4 1 7 .2
4 1 1 .2
4 1 5 .4
4 1 8 .8
4 2 0 .7
3 9 3 .5
3 9 8 .9
4 1 5 .9
4 0 7 .4
I n te r c it y b u s fa r e
4 1 0 .9
4 1 5 .9
3 7 0 .5
3 8 9 .4
3 9 4 .6
4 0 1 .7
4 0 3 .9
4 0 4 .2
4 1 2 .8
3 7 2 .3
3 9 2 .0
3 9 6 .9
4 0 3 .0
4 0 5 .2
4 0 4 .1
4 1 2 .7
3 1 2 .8
3 2 0 .1
3 2 0 .2
3 2 1 .7
3 2 1 .7
3 2 2 .6
3 2 3 .7
3 1 2 .3
3 1 9 .0
3 1 9 .1
3 2 0 .1
3 2 0 .6
3 2 0 .7
3 2 1 .6
2 9 9 .7
3 0 0 .8
3 0 2 .0
3 0 2 .1
3 0 1 .0
3 0 1 .0
3 0 2 .4
3 0 9 .3
3 1 0 .4
3 1 1 .4
3 1 1 .6
3 1 1 .0
3 1 1 .0
311 8
3 8 8 .6
3 5 1 .9
3 5 2 .0
3 5 2 .3
3 5 3 .2
3 6 1 .3
3 6 4 .5
3 3 8 .6
3 5 2 .3
3 5 2 .5
352 7
3 5 3 .6
3 6 2 .3
3 6 5 .2
3 5 1 .2
352 1
3 5 3 .3
3 5 5 .6
3 5 7 .9
V e h ic le I n s p e c t io n ( 1 2 /7 7 =
100)
, , .
O th e r v e h ic le - r e la t e d fe e s ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
100)
. . .
P ublic
....................................................
I n tr a c it y m a s s t r a n s it
T a x i fa r e
.........................................................
..........................
I n te r c it y t r a in f a r e ...................................
4 1 7 .1
M E D IC A L CARE
3 3 3 .3
3 5 2 .3
3 5 3 .5
3 5 4 .3
3 5 5 .4
3 5 7 .7
3 6 0 .0
3 3 1 .3
3 5 0 .0
M e d ic a l c are c o m m o d itie s
208 2
2 1 8 .6
2 2 1 .2
2 2 2 .5
2 2 3 .2
2 2 4 .2
2 2 5 .4
2 0 8 .8
2 1 9 .0
2 2 1 .6
2 2 2 .8
223 6
2 2 4 .5
2 2 5 .8
P r e s c r ip tio n d r u g s ...................................
1 9 5 .6
2 0 8 .7
2 1 1 .6
212 9
2 1 3 .7
2 1 4 .5
2 1 5 .7
1 9 6 .6
2 0 9 .9
2 1 2 .8
2 1 4 .1
214 8
215 6
216 9
A n t i- In f e c tiv e d r u g s ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
100) . .
T r a n q u iliz e r s a n d s e d a tiv e s ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
C lr c u la to r ie s a n d d iu r e t ic s ( 1 2 /7 7
=
100)
. ,
100)
1 4 6 .0
1 5 3 .8
1 5 5 .2
1 5 5 .8
1 5 6 .6
1 5 7 .2
1 5 7 .9
1 4 7 .5
1 5 5 .8
1 5 7 .2
1 5 7 .8
158 8
159 2
1 bo 1
1 5 7 .6
1 7 1 .4
1 7 4 .7
1 7 6 .3
1 7 7 .0
1 7 7 .6
1 7 9 .1
1 5 7 .4
1 7 1 .2
1 7 4 .5
1 7 6 .1
176 7
177 2
178 7
1 4 0 .7
1 5 1 .2
1 5 3 .4
1 5 3 .5
1 5 3 .3
1 5 4 .0
1 5 5 .4
1 4 0 .6
1 5 1 .0
1 5 3 .2
1 5 3 .4
1 5 3 .2
1 5 3 .9
1 5 5 .4
1 8 1 .6
1 9 2 .4
1 96*1
1 9 7 .8
1 9 8 .1
1 9 8 .1
1 9 9 .2
1 8 3 .1
1 9 4 .2
1 9 8 .1
1 9 9 .7
199 9
199 8
201 1
1 5 7 .6
1 7 0 .0
1 7 1 .7
1 7 2 .3
1 7 3 .3
1 7 5 .1
1 7 5 .7
1 5 9 .3
1 7 1 .7
1 7 3 .4
1 7 4 .1
1 7 5 .1
1 7 6 .8
1 7 7 .5
1 4 9 .6
1 5 7 .8
1 5 9 .4
1 6 0 .7
1 6 1 .8
1 6 2 .3
1 6 2 .6
1 4 9 .8
1 5 8 .1
1 5 9 .7
1 6 1 .0
1 6 2 .0
1 6 2 .5
1 6 2 .9
1 4 7 .2
1 5 2 .3
1 5 3 .8
1 5 4 .7
1 5 5 .2
1 5 5 .9
1 5 6 .7
1 4 7 .9
156 7
157 5
1 3 1 .6
1 3 4 .9
1 3 5 .1
1 3 4 .8
1 3 5 .0
1 3 5 .8
1 3 6 .2
1 3 0 .3
1 3 3 .7
1 3 3 .9
1 3 3 .8
133 9
1 3 4 fi
135 1
2 3 6 .6
2 4 5 .5
2 4 8 .7
2 5 0 .9
2 5 1 .9
2 5 3 .5
2 5 5 .0
2 3 7 .9
2 4 6 .8
2 5 0 .2
2 5 2 .1
253 3
254 Q
1 4 8 .0
1 4 9 .4
1 5 0 .0
1 5 0 .4
1 5 0 .3
1 5 1 .0
1 4 4 .2
1 4 9 .4
1 5 0 .6
1 5 1 .3
1 5 1 .4
1 5 1 .3
1 5 2 .4
3 6 1 .0
3 8 2 .2
382 8
3 8 3 .5
3 8 4 .6
3 8 7 .2
3 8 9 .8
358 3
379 0
3 7 9 .7
3 8 0 .5
3 8 1 .7
3 8 4 .4
3 8 7 .0
3 0 4 .4
3 1 6 .7
3 1 8 .0
3 1 9 .7
3 2 2 .0
3 2 4 .2
3 2 6 .0
3 0 4 .6
3 1 6 .9
3 1 8 .4
3 2 0 .0
3 2 2 .2
3 2 4 .6
326 5
3 3 0 .4
3 4 6 .4
3 4 8 .2
3 4 9 .4
3 5 1 .7
353 9
3 5 4 .9
3 3 3 .5
3 4 9 .8
3 5 1 .8
3 5 3 .9
3 5 5 .3
3 5 7 .6
3 5 8 .8
H o r m o n e s , d ia b e tic d r u g s , b io lo g ic a ls , a n d
= 100)
( 1 2 /7 7 = 1 0 0 )
p r e s c r ip t io n m e d ic a l s u p p lie s ( 1 2 /7 7
P a in a n d s y m p t o m c o n t r o l d r u g s
S u p p le m e n t s , c o u g h a n d c o ld p r e p a r a t io n s , a n d
r e s p ir a to r y a g e n t s ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
100)
, .
N o n p r e s c r ip tio n d r u g s a n d m e d ic a l s u p p lie s ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
E y e g la s s e s ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
100)
100)
..........................
I n te r n a l a n d r e s p ir a to r y o v e r - t h e - c o u n t e r d r u g s
N o n p r e s c r ip tio n m e d ic a l e q u ip m e n t a n d - s u p p lle s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
M e d ic a l c a re s e rv ic e s
P r o fe s s io n a l s e r v ic e s
..................
P h y s ic ia n s ' s e r v i c e s ......................
102
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
100)
1 5 3 .1
1 5 4 .6
1 5 5 .4
1 5 6 .0
20.
C o n tin u ed — C onsum er Price In dex— U.S. city average
[1967 = 100 unless otherwise specified]
All U rban C onsu m ers
198 2
G en eral su m m a ry
Aug.
U rban W a g e E arn ers and C le ric a l W o rk e rs
1 983
M a r.
Apr.
1982
1983
M ay
June
July
A ug.
Aug.
M a r.
Apr.
M ay
June
July
A ug.
•
M E D IC A L CARE— Continued
M e d ic a l ca re s e rv ic e — C ontinued
P r o fe s s io n a l s e r v ic e s — C o n tin u e d
D e n ta l s e r v i c e s ....................................................................................................................................
286 4
2 9 4 .6
2 9 5 .7
2 9 8 .6
3 0 1 .2
303 8
3 0 6 .5
2 9 4 .4
2 9 2 .3
2 9 3 .4
2 9 6 .1
2 9 8 .9
3 0 1 .6
3 0 4 .3
O th e r p r o fe s s io n a l s e r v ic e s ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
1 4 5 .6
1 5 1 .6
1 5 1 .9
1 5 1 .8
1 5 2 .3
1 5 3 .0
1 5 4 .0
1 4 2 .5
1 4 8 .3
1 4 8 .5
1 4 8 .5
1 4 8 .7
1 4 9 .6
150 5
4 6 6 .9
4 2 5 .4
4 5 7 .1
100)
.............................................................
O th e r m e d ic a l c a r e s e r v i c e s ..................................................................................................................
4 2 9 .4
4 6 1 .4
4 6 1 .1
4 6 0 .4
4 6 0 .5
4 6 3 .3
4 5 6 .9
4 5 6 .4
4 5 6 .4
4 5 9 .4
4 6 2 .9
1 0 0 ) ................................................
1 7 7 .1
1 8 9 .5
1 9 0 .2
1 9 0 .8
1 9 1 .5
1 9 3 .8
1 9 6 .7
1 7 5 .2
1 8 7 .8
1 8 8 .4
1 8 9 .0
1 8 9 .6
1 9 1 .9
1 9 4 .6
....................................................................................................................................
5 6 5 .5
6 0 6 .2
6 0 8 .0
6 0 9 .6
6 0 9 .6
6 1 9 .1
6 2 7 .6
5 5 7 .6
5 9 8 .8
6 0 0 .7
6 0 1 .8
6 0 2 .2
6 1 1 .2
6 1 9 .5
1 7 3 .6
1 8 5 .6
1 8 6 .3
1 8 7 .0
1 8 8 .3
1 8 9 .9
1 9 3 .0
1 7 2 .2
1 8 4 .3
1 8 4 .9
1 8 5 .6
1 8 6 .8
1 8 8 .4
1 9 1 .2
E N T E R TA IN M E N T
2 3 7 .4
2 4 4 .6
2 4 4 .6
2 4 4 .8
2 4 5 .4
2 4 6 .0
2 4 6 .6
2 3 3 .9
2 4 0 .8
2 4 1 .1
2 4 1 .3
2 4 1 .9
2 4 2 .5
2 4 3 .1
E n te rta in m e n t c o m m o d itie s
2 4 0 .5
2 4 6 .8
2 4 6 .0
2 4 6 .3
2 4 6 .3
2 4 6 .7
2 4 8 .0
2 3 4 .4
240 8
2 4 0 .5
2 4 0 .7
2 4 0 .7
2 4 1 .4
2 4 2 .5
H o s p ita l a n d o t h e r m e d ic a l s e r v ic e s ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
H o s p ita l r o o m
O t h e r h o s p it a l a n d m e d ic a l c a r e s e r v ic e s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
N e w s p a p e rs
1 0 0 ) ...............................
149 4
159 3
158 4
159 7
158 5
1 5 8 .5
1 6 0 .9
1 4 8 .9
1 5 8 .7
1 5 7 .8
1 5 9 .1
1 5 8 .0
1 5 8 .0
1 6 0 .2
2 8 6 .3
2 9 9 .6
3 0 0 .2
3 0 1 .6
3 0 2 .0
3 0 2 .7
3 0 3 .5
2 8 6 .0
299 8
3 0 0 .4
3 0 1 .7
3 0 2 .0
3 0 2 .7
3 0 3 .4
1 0 0 ) ................................................
1 5 3 .8
1 6 7 .1
1 6 4 .8
1 6 6 .8
1 6 4 .2
1 6 3 .6
1 6 8 .4
1 5 3 .6
167 3
1 6 4 .8
1 6 7 .0
1 6 4 .2
1 6 3 .6
1 6 8 .5
1 0 0 ) ..................................................................
1 3 3 .2
1 3 4 .2
1 3 3 .6
1 3 3 .2
1 3 4 .0
1 3 4 .2
1 3 4 .1
1 2 4 .9
1 2 7 .2
1 2 7 .5
1 2 7 .3
1 2 7 .7
1 2 8 .3
1 2 8 .3
............................................................................................
1 3 5 .7
1 3 7 .3
1 3 6 .3
1 3 5 .7
1 3 6 .7
1 3 7 .1
1 3 6 .4
1 2 2 .4
1 2 6 .4
1 2 6 .7
1 2 6 .5
1 2 6 .8
1 2 7 .8
1 2 7 .8
1 0 0 ) ..........................
1 1 9 .7
1 2 0 .8
1 2 1 .3
1 2 0 .5
1 1 9 .9
1 1 8 .6
1 1 8 .5
1 1 7 .5
1 1 8 .4
1 1 8 .9
1 1 8 .0
1 1 7 .6
1 1 6 .4
1 1 6 .6
........................................................................................................................................
M a g a z in e s , p e r io d ic a ls , a n d b o o k s ( 1 2 /7 7
S p o r tin g g o o d s a n d e q u ip m e n t ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
S p o r t v e h ic le s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
100)
=
I n d o o r a n d w a r m w e a t h e r s p o r t e q u ip m e n t ( 1 2 /7 7
=
B i c y c l e s ......................................................... ...........................................................................................
1 9 9 .4
1 9 7 .8
1 9 6 .1
1 9 6 .6
1 9 9 .2
1 9 9 .8
1 9 9 .9
2 0 0 .4
1 9 8 .0
1 9 7 .4
1 9 7 .9
2 0 0 .2
2 0 0 .7
2 0 0 .7
O t h e r s p o r t in g g o o d s a n d e q u ip m e n t ( 1 2 /7 7 =
1 3 0 .3
1 3 1 .6
1 3 2 .0
132 2
1 3 2 .2
1 3 2 .8
1 3 3 .1
1 3 0 .9
1 3 1 .5
1 3 2 .0
1 3 2 .3
1 3 2 .2
1 3 2 .7
1 3 2 .9
............................................
1 3 6 .9
1 3 8 .6
1 3 8 .5
1 3 8 .4
1 3 8 .6
1 3 9 .0
1 3 9 .3
1 3 5 .7
1 3 7 .3
1 3 7 .2
1 3 7 .1
1 3 7 .3
1 3 7 .7
1 3 8 .0
T o y s , h o b b ie s , a n d m u s ic e q u ip m e n t ( 1 2 /7 7 =
1 0 0 ) .......................................
1 3 6 .4
1 3 7 .6
1 3 7 .3
1 3 7 .4
1 3 7 .4
1 3 7 .7
1 3 7 .7
1 3 2 .8
1 3 3 .7
1 3 3 .4
1 3 3 .5
1 3 3 .6
1 3 4 .0
1 3 3 .9
P h o t o g r a p h ic s u p p lie s a n d e q u ip m e n t ( 1 2 /7 7 =
100)
...................................
1 3 0 .2
1 3 1 .6
1 3 1 .6
1 3 1 .7
1 3 1 .4
1 3 1 .6
1 3 1 .6
1 3 1 .4
1 3 2 .8
1 3 2 .6
1 3 2 .6
1 3 2 .4
1 3 2 .7
1 3 2 .8
1 0 0 ) ..................................................................
1 4 2 .5
1 4 5 .6
1 4 5 .8
1 4 5 .1
1 4 5 .9
1 4 6 .6
1 4 7 .5
1 4 3 .6
1 4 6 .5
1 4 6 .9
1 4 6 .1
1 4 6 .9
1 4 7 .6
1 4 8 .6
2 3 3 .5
2 4 1 .9
2 4 3 .1
2 4 3 .2
2 4 4 .7
2 4 5 .4
2 4 5 .0
2 3 4 .2
2 4 2 .1
2 4 3 .3
2 4 3 .5
2 4 5 .1
2 4 5 .8
2 4 5 .4
1 4 3 .4
1 5 0 .9
1 5 1 .3
1 5 0 .8
1 5 1 .3
1 5 1 .8
1 5 2 .2
1 4 4 .8
1 5 2 .2
1 5 2 .4
1 5 2 .1
1 5 2 .5
1 5 2 .8
T o y s , h o b b ie s , a n d o t h e r e n t e r t a in m e n t ( 1 2 /7 7 =
P e t s u p p lie s a n d e x p e n s e s ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
1 0 0 ) ........................................
100)
E n te rta in m e n t s e rv ic e s
F e e s f o r p a r t i c i p a n t s p o r ts ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
A d m is s io n s ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
1 0 0 ) ...............................................................................
1 0 0 ) ............................................................................................
1 5 3 .2
1 3 7 .4
1 4 0 .1
1 4 1 .7
1 4 2 .4
1 4 4 .7
1 4 6 .4
1 4 5 .4
1 3 6 .5
1 3 9 .1
1 4 0 .7
1 4 3 .7
1 4 3 .7
1 4 5 .4
1 4 4 .5
1 2 8 .3
1 3 1 .0
1 3 1 .6
1 3 1 .9
1 3 1 .8
1 3 0 .6
1 2 9 .8
1 2 9 .2
1 3 1 .8
1 3 2 .4
1 3 2 .6
1 3 2 .6
1 3 1 .4
1 3 0 .7
O THER GO ODS AN D SER VIC ES
2 5 8 .3
2 8 1 .9
2 8 3 .2
2 8 3 .6
2 8 4 .5
2 8 7 .5
2 8 9 .0
2 5 5 .7
2 8 0 .0
2 8 1 .4
2 8 1 .8
282 8
2 8 6 .4
2 8 8 .0
T obacco products
2 4 0 .1
2 8 3 .3
2 8 4 .9
2 8 5 .3
285 9
2 9 4 .6
2 9 7 .7
2 3 9 .3
2 8 2 .7
2 8 4 .3
2 8 4 .8
2 8 5 .4
2 9 4 .3
2 9 7 .5
2 4 3 .1
2 9 0 .4
2 9 2 .0
2 9 2 .4
2 9 3 .1
3 0 2 .8
3 0 6 .1
2 4 2 .3
2 8 9 .3
2 9 0 .9
2 9 1 .5
2 9 2 .0
3 0 1 .7
3 0 5 .2
1 4 2 .4
1 4 8 .6
1 4 9 .6
1 4 9 .6
1 4 9 .9
1 5 0 .5
1 5 0 .9
1 4 2 .5
1 4 8 .5
1 4 9 .5
1 4 9 .6
1 4 9 .8
1 5 0 .5
1 5 0 .9
P e rs o n a l c are
2 5 0 .6
2 5 7 .8
2 5 9 .1
2 5 9 .4
2 6 0 .9
2 6 1 .3
2 6 2 .1
2 4 8 .8
2 5 5 .8
2 5 7 .1
2 5 7 .3
2 5 9 .0
259 4
260 1
T o ile t g o o d s a n d p e r s o n a l c a r e a p p l i a n c e s ............................................
2 4 9 .5
2 5 7 .1
2 5 8 .5
2 5 8 .6
2 6 1 .4
2 6 2 .3
2 6 1 .9
2 5 0 .5
257 8
259 3
259 3
2 6 2 .1
263 0
2 6 2 .6
1 4 5 .0
1 4 8 .5
1 5 0 .9
1 5 0 .8
1 5 1 .7
1 5 2 .5
1 5 2 .8
1 4 4 .4
1 4 7 .8
1 5 0 .3
1 5 0 .0
1 5 0 .9
1 5 1 .7
1 5 1 .9
1 5 3 .1
1 6 0 .4
1 6 0 .5
1 6 1 .2
1 6 2 .5
1 6 2 .6
1 6 0 .0
1 5 1 .6
1 5 8 .9
1 5 8 .9
1 5 9 .6
1 6 0 .8
1 6 0 .8
1 5 8 .5
1 4 1 .3
1 4 6 .0
1 4 5 .6
1 4 5 .1
1 4 8 .5
1 4 8 .8
1 4 8 .6
1 4 2 .0
1 4 6 .7
1 4 6 .3
1 4 5 .7
1 4 9 .2
1 4 9 .5
1 4 9 .2
1 4 2 .5
1 4 4 .9
1 4 6 .0
1 4 6 .7
1 4 7 .1
1 4 7 .9
1 4 8 .9
1 4 6 .2
1 4 8 .5
1 4 9 .8
1 5 0 .3
1 5 0 .7
1 5 1 .6
1 5 2 .4
2 5 2 .5
2 5 9 .5
2 6 0 .7
2 6 1 .1
2 6 1 .6
2 6 1 .5
2 6 3 .3
2 4 7 .6
2 5 4 .3
2 5 5 .4
2 5 5 .7
2 5 6 .3
2 5 6 .4
2 5 8 .1
2 5 5 .0
2 6 2 .4
2 6 4 .2
2 6 4 .5
2 6 5 .0
2 6 4 .3
2 6 6 .5
2 4 8 .7
2 5 5 .5
2 5 7 .2
257 4
258 0
2 5 7 .5
259 7
1 4 0 .2
1 4 3 .7
1 4 3 .8
1 4 4 .1
1 4 4 .4
1 4 5 .1
1 4 5 .6
1 3 9 .0
1 4 2 .6
1 4 2 .7
1 4 3 .0
1 4 3 .2
1 4 3 .9
1 4 4 .4
2 9 5 .8
3 2 3 .9
3 2 4 .9
3 2 5 .6
3 2 6 .0
3 2 7 .2
3 2 8 .1
2 9 7 .9
3 2 5 .7
3 2 6 .8
3 2 7 .7
328 1
3 2 9 .4
3 3 0 .5
O th e r e n t e r t a in m e n t s e r v ic e s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
C g a r e tt e s
100)
..............................................................
......................................................................................................................
O t h e r t o b a c c o p r o d u c ts a n d s m o k in g a c c e s s o r ie s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
P r o d u c ts f o r th e h a ir , h a ir p ie c e s , a n d w ig s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
D e n ta l a n d s h a v in g p r o d u c ts ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
100)
100)
. .
100)
..........................
C o s m e tic s , b a th a n d n a il p r e p a r a t io n s , m a n ic u r e
a n d e y e m a k e u p im p le m e n ts ( 1 2 /7 7
=
100)
. . .
O th e r to ile t g o o d s a n d s m a ll p e rs o n a l c a re a p p lia n c e s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
P e r s o n a l c a r e s e r v ic e s
100)
. . .
..............................................................
B e a u ty p a r lo r s e r v ic e s f o r w o m e n
...............................
H a ir c u t s a n d o t h e r b a r b e r s h o p s e r v ic e s f o r m e n ( 1 2 /7 7 =
100)
P e rs o n a l and e d u c a tio n a l e xpenses
S c h o o lb o o k s a n d s u p p lie s
...............................
P e r s o n a l a n d e d u c a t io n a l s e r v ic e s
T u itio n a n d o t h e r s c h o o l fe e s
C o lle g e t u it i o n ( 1 2 /7 7
=
. .
. . .
100) . . .
.
. . .
2 6 5 .3
2 9 2 .3
2 9 2 .5
292 9
2 9 3 .6
2 9 4 .2
2 9 4 .6
2 6 9 .6
2 9 6 .3
2 9 6 .5
2 9 6 .8
297 6
2 9 8 .3
298 8
3 0 3 .1
3 3 1 .5
332 7
3 3 3 .5
333 8
3 3 5 .1
3 3 6 .2
3 0 5 .1
333 2
3 3 4 .5
3 3 5 .5
335 8
3 3 7 .3
338 6
1 5 2 .6
1 6 7 .4
1 6 7 .6
1 6 7 .7
1 6 7 .6
1 6 8 .0
1 6 8 .2
1 5 3 .2
1 6 7 .9
1 6 8 .2
1 6 8 .2
1 6 8 .2
1 6 8 .5
168 8
1 6 7 .1
1 6 7 .5
1 6 7 .5
1 6 7 .4
1 6 7 .9
168 0
1 5 1 .9
1 6 7 .0
1 6 7 .4
1 6 7 .4
1 6 7 .3
1 6 7 .8
1 6 8 .0
1 5 2 .0
1 5 4 .6
1 6 8 .8
1 6 8 .8
1 6 8 .9
1 6 8 .9
1 6 8 .9
1 6 9 .2
1 5 5 .6
1 6 9 .8
1 6 9 .8
1 6 9 .9
1 6 9 .9
1 6 9 .9
170 3
1 6 7 .4
1 8 1 .2
1 8 3 .1
1 8 5 .1
1 8 6 .1
1 8 7 .9
1 8 9 .8
1 6 7 .6
1 8 1 .1
1 8 3 .1
1 8 5 .3
1 8 6 .2
1 8 8 .3
1 9 0 .4
G a s o lin e , m o t o r o il , c o o la n t , a n d o t h e r p r o d u c ts
3 9 3 .2
3 4 5 .2
3 6 3 .4
3 7 6 .2
381 2
3 8 4 .3
3 8 4 .5
3 9 4 .4
3 4 6 .7
3 6 5 .0
3 7 7 .6
I n s u r a n c e a n d f i n a n c e ..........................
3 8 2 .4
3 8 5 .4
3 8 5 .9
4 4 1 .3
4 4 1 .7
4 1 1 .8
4 1 1 .6
U t ilitie s a n d p u b l ic t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ......................
4 1 0 .0
4 1 0 .2
4 1 1 .4
415 6
320 3
3 3 1 .1
3 3 3 .4
3 3 7 .2
3 4 1 .5
3 4 3 .6
3 4 3 .6
3 1 7 .8
3 3 0 .4
3 3 2 .6
3 3 6 .5
341 1
H o u s e k e e p in g a n d h o m e m a in te n a n c e s e r v ic e s
343 1
342 9
3 5 1 .4
3 5 6 .0
3 5 7 .3
3 5 8 .2
3 5 8 .6
358 9
3 6 0 .1
3 5 1 .0
3 5 7 .9
3 5 9 .5
360 3
3 6 0 .8
3 6 1 .7
3 6 4 .2
E le m e n ta r y a n d h ig h s c h o o l t u it i o n ( 1 2 /7 7
P e r s o n a l e x p e n s e s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
100)
=
100)
.
. . . .
S p e c ia l indexes:
'E x c l u d e s m o t o r o il , c o o la n t , a n d o t h e r p r o d u c ts a s o f J a n u a r y 1 9 8 3 .
c =
c o rre c te d .
2 S e e b o x w ith “ P r ic e D a t a . ”
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
103
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • Current Labor Statistics: Consumer Prices
21. C onsum er Price Index for All Urban C onsum ers: Cross classification of region and population size class by expenditure
category and com m o dity and service group
[D e c e m b e r 1 9 7 7 = 1 0 0 ]
Size class A
Size class B
S ize class C
S ize class D
( 1 .2 5 m illio n or m o re)
( 3 8 5 ,0 0 0 - 1 ,2 5 0 m illio n )
( 7 5 ,0 0 0 - 3 8 5 ,0 0 0 )
(7 5 ,0 0 0 or less)
Category and group
198 3
Apr.
I
June
198 3
I
Aug.
Apr.
I
June
1983
I
Apr.
Aug.
June
1 983
I
A ug.
Apr.
June
Aug.
1 6 0 .0
N o rth east
E XP EN D ITU R E CATEGORY
A ll it e m s
..................................................................
1 5 3 .1
1 5 3 .9
1 5 5 .0
1 5 9 .0
1 6 0 .8
1 6 1 .5
1 6 3 .5
1 6 4 .2
1 6 5 .5
1 5 8 .2
1 5 8 .5
1 4 7 .0
1 4 7 .4
1 4 7 .5
1 4 6 .2
1 4 6 .8
1 4 7 .4
1 5 1 .1
1 5 0 .6
1 5 1 .6
1 4 5 .8
1 4 6 .3
H o u s i n g .........................................................
1 5 8 .0
1 5 8 .9
1 5 9 .6
1 6 9 .1
1 7 0 .7
1 6 9 .7
1 7 6 .4
1 7 6 .7
1 7 6 .7
1 6 5 .1
1 6 3 .9
1 6 4 .2
A p p a re l a n d u p k e e p
1 2 2 .6
1 2 2 .6
1 2 3 .2
1 2 2 .4
1 2 4 .4
1 2 5 .8
1 2 8 .5
1 2 8 .9
1 2 8 .6
1 3 0 .2
1 2 9 .5
1 2 8 .8
1 6 0 .1
1 6 1 .7
1 6 4 .2
1 6 5 .4
1 6 9 .2
1 7 1 .4
1 6 4 .3
1 6 6 .6
1 6 9 .5
1 6 4 .3
1 6 6 .7
1 6 9 .7
1 5 9 .6
1 6 0 .9
1 6 4 .4
1 6 3 .0
1 6 3 .5
1 6 7 .1
1 6 6 .0
1 6 6 .7
1 7 1 .2
1 6 5 .8
168 5
1 7 1 .9
1 4 3 .1
1 4 4 .1
1 4 4 .3
1 3 9 .1
1 3 8 .8
1 3 9 .6
1 3 9 .8
1 4 2 .1
1 4 3 .8
1 4 6 .5
1 4 8 .1 '
1 4 9 .3
1 5 6 .2
1 5 6 .7
1 6 0 .3
1 5 8 .6
1 5 9 .8
1 6 2 .8
1 6 2 .3
1 6 3 .1
1 6 5 .9
1 6 2 .1
1 6 2 .2
1 6 6 .7
1 4 8 .4
1 4 9 .1
1 5 0 .1
1 5 3 .0
1 5 4 .8
1 5 6 .0
1 5 3 .6
1 5 4 .3
1 5 5 .4
1 5 1 .3
1 5 2 .3
1 4 9 .0
1 5 0 .0
1 4 1 .6
1 5 5 .7
1 5 8 .3
1 5 9 .8
1 5 4 .3
1 5 5 .8
1 5 6 .8
1 5 3 .4
1 5 4 .8
1 5 6 .3
1 5 9 .0
1 6 0 .0
1 6 1 .3
1 6 8 .2
1 6 9 .8
1 6 9 .8
1 7 9 .4
1 8 0 .1
1 8 1 .7
1 6 8 .5
1 6 7 .9
1 6 9 .2
F o o d a n d b e v e ra g e s
T r a n s p o r t a tio n
M e d ic a l c a r e
.........................................................................................................
.........................................................
............................................................................................
....................................................
E n t e r t a i n m e n t ..................................................................
..............................................................................
O t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v ic e s
1 4 7 .7
C O M M O D IT Y A N D SER VIC E GR OUP
C o m m o d i t i e s .......................................................................................
C o m m o d itie s le s s f o o d a n d b e v e r a g e s
S e r v ic e s
.........................................................
.............................................................................................................
1 5 3 .9
N orth C en tral R egion
E XP EN D ITU R E CATEGORY
A ll it e m s
..................................................................
F o o d a n d b e v e ra g e s
........................................
H o u s i n g .....................................................
A p p a re l a n d u p k e e p
T r a n s p o r t a tio n
............................................
................................................
1 6 3 .6
1 6 5 .2
1 6 6 .6
1 6 1 .1
1 6 2 .0
162 2
1 5 7 .3
1 5 8 .3
1 5 9 .6
1 5 8 .1
1 4 5 .4
1 4 5 .0
1 4 4 .5
1 4 4 .1
1 4 3 .8
1 4 3 .6
1 4 5 .6
1 4 5 .0
1 4 5 .0
1 5 0 .9
1 5 1 .7
1 5 1 .9
1 8 1 .9
1 8 5 .3
1 8 6 .3
1 7 1 .7
1 7 2 .2
1 7 1 .7
1 6 4 .1
1 6 5 .2
1 6 5 .7
1 6 3 .8
1 6 3 .9
1 6 5 .2
1 1 7 .9
1 1 6 .8
1 1 9 .5
1 2 8 .8
129 2
1 2 8 .9
1 2 8 .4
1 2 7 .0
1 2 9 .9
1 2 3 .5
122 2
1 2 5 .4
1 5 9 .3
1 6 0 .7
1 6 1 .7
1 6 4 .2
1 6 7 .4
1 6 4 .0
1 6 7 .1
1 6 8 .6
1 6 3 .9
1 6 7 .1
1 6 9 .8
1 6 1 .2
1 6 5 .7
1 6 7 .8
1 6 5 .3
1 6 6 .1
1 6 8 .4
1 6 8 .3
1 6 8 .5
1 7 2 .4
1 6 5 .8
1 6 6 .3
1 6 7 .5
E n t e r t a i n m e n t ................................................
1 7 2 .2
1 7 3 .1
1 7 5 .4
1 4 1 .9
1 4 1 .9
1 4 3 .3
1 3 6 .7
1 3 6 .9
1 3 1 .8
1 4 5 .9
1 4 7 .3
1 4 8 .4
1 3 6 .5
1 3 7 .1
O th e r g o o d s a n d s e r v ic e s
1 3 6 .6
1 5 6 .2
1 5 6 .7
1 5 8 .1
1 6 7 .4
1 6 8 .5
1 7 0 .4
1 5 2 .6
1 5 3 .8
1 5 8 .3
1 6 5 .2
1 6 6 .3
1 6 9 .3
M e d ic a l c a r e
.............................................................
.............................................................
C O M M O D IT Y A N D SER VIC E GR OUP
C o m m o d i t i e s ................................................
C o m m o d itie s le s s f o o d a n d b e v e r a g e s
. . .
S e r v i c e s ..................................................................
1 5 2 .7
1 5 3 .5
1 5 1 .7
1 5 2 .8
1 5 3 .1
1 4 9 .1
150 0
1 5 1 .5
1 4 8 .5
1 4 9 .9
1 5 1 .3
1 5 5 .9
1 5 7 .5
1 5 9 .7
1 5 4 .6
1 5 6 .8
1 5 7 .1
1 5 0 .3
1 5 2 .2
1 5 4 .5
1 4 7 ,3
1 4 9 .0
1 5 1 .0
1 7 9 .9
1 8 2 .4
1 8 4 .3
1 7 6 .1
1 7 6 .8
1 7 6 .8
1 7 0 .7
1 7 1 .7
1 7 2 .8
1 7 3 .0
1 7 4 .1
1 7 5 .6
1 6 1 .2
1 5 4 .7
South
EXP ENDITUR E CATEGORY
A ll it e m s
.........................................................
1 5 9 .1
1 6 1 .2
1 6 2 .4
1 6 0 .9
1 6 1 .7
1 6 2 .9
1 6 0 .2
1 5 0 .5
1 5 0 .9
1 5 0 .9
1 4 9 .2
1 4 8 .9
1 4 9 .9
1 4 7 .4
1 6 3 .5
1 6 8 .5
1 6 9 .7
1 6 6 .9
1 2 8 .7
1 2 9 .8
1 3 1 .8
126 2
1 2 4 .6
1 2 6 .2
1 6 3 .8
1 6 6 .8
1 6 8 .7
1 6 7 .1
1 7 0 .3
................................................
1 6 8 .7
1 6 9 .0
1 7 0 .0
1 6 7 .9
E n t e r t a i n m e n t ................................................
1 3 8 .6
1 3 9 .4
1 4 0 .7
O t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v ic e s
1 5 8 .4
1 5 9 ,3
1 5 2 .3
1 5 2 .7
1 6 8 .6
F o o d a n d b e v e ra g e s
............................................
H o u s i n g ............................................
A p p a re l a n d u p ke e p
T r a n s p o r t a tio n
M e d ic a l c a r e
........................................
.......................................
...................................
1 6 2 .3
1 6 0 .8
1 6 2 .0
1 6 2 .8
1 4 7 .3
1 4 7 .8
1 4 9 .9
1 5 0 .7
1 5 0 .7
1 6 8 .7
1 6 9 .5
1 6 9 .9
1 7 0 .3
1 7 1 .9
1 2 3 .1
1 2 3 .0
1 2 4 .1
1 1 2 .5
1 1 3 .9
1 1 1 .3
1 7 2 .2
1 6 5 .9
1 6 8 .5
1 7 0 .3
162 9
1 6 6 .0
1 6 7 .3
1 6 7 .5
1 6 9 .0
1 7 7 .5
1 7 8 .5
1 8 0 .0
1 8 3 .0
1 8 4 .4
1 8 4 .2
1 6 9 .0
1 5 3 .0
1 5 4 .4
1 4 6 .5
1 4 6 .1
1 4 6 .2
1 4 5 .6
1 4 5 .5
1 4 6 .4
1 6 2 .1
1 5 4 .5
162 9
1 6 4 .9
1 5 3 .5
1 6 0 .0
1 6 1 .6
1 6 0 .4
1 6 1 .0
1 6 2 .9
1 5 3 .7
1 5 5 .0
1 5 3 .8
1 5 4 .5
1 5 5 .6
1 5 1 .0
1 5 2 .0
1 5 3 .7
1 5 1 .1
1 5 3 .0
1 5 3 .2
1 5 4 .8
1 5 6 .8
1 5 5 .5
1 5 6 .8
1 5 7 .9
1 5 2 .4
1 5 4 .1
1 5 6 .4
1 5 1 .4
1 5 3 .8
1 5 4 .2
1 7 1 .5
1 7 2 .7
1 7 1 .6
1 7 2 .6
1 7 3 .9
1 7 4 .4
1 7 5 .3
1 7 5 .6
1 7 5 .3
1 7 5 .7
1 7 7 .1
C O M M O D IT Y A N D SERVICE G R O UP
C o m m o d i t i e s ........................................
C o m m o d itie s le s s f o o d a n d b e v e r a g e s
.
.
S e r v i c e s .........................................................
W est
E XP EN D ITU R E CATEGORY
A ll it e m s
............................................
F o o d a n d b e v e ra g e s
1 5 9 .2
..................
H o u s i n g ........................................
A p p a re l a n d u p ke e p
T r a n s p o r t a tio n
M e d ic a l c a r e
......................
..........................
......................
1 6 1 .4
1 6 2 .7
1 5 9 .5
1 6 1 .8
1 6 2 .5
1 5 2 .2
1 5 3 .5
1 5 5 .2
1 5 1 .8
16; 2
1 5 0 .9
1 5 2 .8
1 5 3 .7
1 5 2 .8
1 4 8 .6
1 4 8 .6
1 4 8 .3
1 5 3 .1
1 5 4 .4
1 5 4 .1
1 6 4 .0
1 6 6 .2
1 6 8 .3
1 6 3 .5
1 6 5 .1
1 6 5 .4
1 5 1 .8
1 5 1 .2
1 5 2 .9
1 5 4 .4
,1 5 9 .1
1 6 3 .2
1 2 1 .0
1 2 1 .8
1 2 3 .3
1 2 1 .7
1 2 8 .4
1 2 6 .9
1 2 2 .7
1 2 3 .3
1 4 2 .9
1 4 2 .4
1 6 5 .1
1 7 1 .3
1 7 3 .0
1 6 5 .8
1 7 1 .6
1 7 4 .4
1 6 2 .4
1 6 7 .7
1 7 0 .6
1 6 1 .1
1 6 5 .6
1 6 7 .8
1 7 5 .3
1 7 6 .7
1 7 7 .3
1 7 1 .5
1 7 2 .6
1 7 5 .8
1 7 4 .8
1 7 6 .4
1 8 0 .0
1 7 5 .0
1 7 7 .5
1 7 9 .2
122 8
1 5 7 .0
1 3 9 .8
1 6 0 .0
1 6 2 .2
E n t e r t a i n m e n t .......................................
1 3 9 .7
1 3 9 .6
1 3 9 .8
1 4 5 .6
1 4 5 .9
1 4 6 .7
O t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v ic e s
1 3 9 .6
1 4 4 .8
1 4 8 .7
1 5 7 .0
1 5 7 .3
158 5
1 6 3 .5
1 5 5 .5
1 6 5 .0
1 6 2 .8
1 6 3 .4
1 6 5 .5
1 5 8 .1
1 5 8 .0
1 6 1 .2
1 6 9 .3
1 6 9 .2
1 7 3 .4
1 4 9 .9
1 5 2 .4
1 5 2 .6
1 5 1 .7
1 5 4 .6
1 5 5 .2
1 4 9 .8
1 5 2 .1
1 5 3 .3
1 4 9 .0
1 5 1 .2
1 5 2 .4
1 4 7 .0
1 4 8 .6
1 5 3 .6
1 5 0 .1
1 5 0 .7
1 5 6 .4
1 4 8 .6
1 4 9 .6
1 5 5 .4
1 4 6 .8
1 4 7 .0
1 5 1 .7
1 7 0 .7
1 7 1 .6
1 7 5 .9
1 6 9 .0
1 7 0 .2
1 7 2 .6
1 5 4 .0
1 5 5 .3
1 5 7 .6
1 7 2 .5
1 6 8 .8
1 7 6 .6
. .
C O M M O D IT Y A N D SERVICE GR OUP
C o m m o d i t i e s ..........................
C o m m o d itie s le s s f o o d a n d b e v e r a g e s
S e r v i c e s ...................................
104
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
22.
C onsum er Price Index— U.S. city average, and selected areas
[1967 = 100 unless otherwise specified]
All U rban Consu m ers
1 982
A re a 1
U . S . c it y a v e r a g e 2
.........................................................................................................
A n c h o r a g e , A la s k a ( 1 0 /6 7 =
100)
Apr.
M ay
June
July
Aug.
Aug.
M a r.
Apr.
M ay
June
July
A ug.
2 9 2 .9
2 9 3 .4
2 9 5 .5
2 9 7 .1
2 9 8 .1
2 9 9 .3
3 0 0 .3
2 9 2 .4
2 9 3 .0
2 9 4 .9
2 9 6 .3
2 9 7 .2
2 9 8 .2
2 9 9 .5
3 0 3 .9
2 9 7 .1
2 6 1 .0
2 9 5 .6
2 9 3 .2
C in c in n a t i, O h i o - K y . - I n d ................................................................................................
D a lla s - F t. W o r t h , T e x .......................................................................................................
3 0 4 .3
D e n v e r - B o u ld e r , C o lo .......................................................................................................
H o n o lu lu , H a w a i i .............................................................................................................
2 9 3 .7
2 9 5 .3
292 4
2 6 9 .4
2 9 8 .6
3 1 4 .1
2 9 4 .9
2 7 2 .8
3 0 1 .6
292 5
3 2 7 .3
3 1 0 .6
3 1 5 .9
300 2
3 1 2 .4
3 3 4 .7
2 9 4 .9
2 9 9 .6
2 6 5 .5
335 8
2 9 6 .6
2 9 8 .4
2 7 1 .4
2 9 3 .6
3 0 7 .6
2 9 8 .8
2 7 3 .5
2 8 9 .3
2 9 4 .8
2 6 9 .5
2 9 5 .8
3 0 9 .5
2 9 6 .4
3 1 7 .6
3 0 6 .3
298 9
2 9 7 .4
3 0 8 .0
3 3 1 .9
2 9 5 .0
2 8 5 .1
3 1 6 .8
3 0 1 .7
2 8 9 .8
2 8 8 .0
2 8 3 .3
3 1 5 .4
326 8
3 0 4 .3
2 9 7 .4
2 8 5 .1
2 7 8 .4
2 9 1 .4
2 5 7 .5
3 0 2 .0
2 9 6 .7
2 8 4 .3
2 8 5 .9
3 2 5 .5
3 0 8 .6
3 2 9 .6
2 9 2 .7
2 9 6 .3
3 1 1 .3
2 5 4 .7
3 0 0 .1
2 9 5 .0
2 8 9 .1
2 8 4 .3
3 2 0 .6
2 5 3 .9
3 0 0 .4
2 8 7 .3
2 8 2 .5
3 0 7 .6
3 1 2 .2
2 6 5 .8
3 0 2 .3
296 5
2 8 5 .9
2 6 7 .7
C le v e la n d , O h i o ..................................................................................................................
D e t r o it. M i c h ...........................................................................................................................
2 6 2 .5
2 9 7 .6
2 9 2 .4
B a ltim o r e , M d ........................................................................................................................
C h ic a g o , I II .- N o r th w e s t e r n I n d .................................................................................
1983
M a r.
B o s t o n . M a s s .........................................................................................................................
B u ffa lo , N . Y .............................................................................................................................
1982
Aug.
..................................................................
A t la n t a , G a ................................................................................................................................
U rban W a g e E arn ers and C le ric a l W o rk e rs (re v is e d )
198 3
309 0
3 3 1 .7
3 0 0 .7
3 0 3 .8
3 0 3 .7
276 9
2 7 3 .4
H o u s t o n . T e x ..........................................................................................................................
3 1 8 .6
3 1 6 .7
3 2 1 .3
3 2 4 .0
3 1 5 .3
3 1 7 .6
3 1 9 .7
321 6
K a n s a s C ity , M o .- K a n s a s
........................................................................................
2 8 5 .0
2 9 5 .9
2 9 7 .5
3 0 1 .3
2 8 3 .6
2 9 3 .5
2 9 8 .3
299 3
L o s A n g e le s - L o n g B e a c h , A n a h e im , C a lif ........................................................
2 8 9 .1
2 9 5 .2
2 9 2 .8
3 1 6 .2
3 1 3 .3
2 8 9 .5
2 7 7 .1
2 8 0 .3
2 8 9 ,9
2 8 0 .7
2 8 5 .5
3 1 0 .2
2 9 1 .8
M ia m i, F la . ( 1 1 / 7 7 =
100)
...................................................................................
2 8 7 .1
2 8 9 .5
1 5 9 .0
M ilw a u k e e , W is ....................................................................................................................
3 1 3 .8
N e w Y o r k , N . Y . - N o r th e a s te r n N . J .........................................................................
2 7 8 .5
N o r th e a s t , P a . ( S c r a n t o n ) ........................................................................................
2 8 6 .5
2 7 8 .9
P h ila d e lp h ia , P a . - N . J ........................................................................................................
2 8 1 .3
P itt s b u r g h , P a ........................................................................................................................
2 9 1 .4
P o r tla n d , O r e g . - W a s h ......................................................................................................
2 8 3 .Q
2 8 7 .4
2 8 8 .1
2 8 9 .1
2 8 4 .3
2 8 6 .1
2 8 8 .3
3 0 5 .2
2 8 4 .7
3 0 5 .4
2 9 0 .2
2 9 2 .1
2 8 3 .8
286 8
286 5
3 0 8 .5
285 9
2 8 6 .1
2 8 8 .7
2 9 1 .1
2 8 2 .9
3 0 0 .7
299 5
2 8 3 .8
2 8 6 .4
2 9 3 .2
2 9 5 .4
2 9 9 .3
2 9 3 .2
2 9 4 .0
2 9 6 .7
3 2 7 .5
3 3 2 .0
3 3 5 .2
3 1 5 .4
3 1 4 .8
3°0 0
2 9 9 .3
3 0 3 .0
3 0 6 .0
3 0 2 .8
2 9 4 .7
2 9 8 .6
3 0 1 .6
S e a t tle - E v e r e t t, W a s h ........................................................................
2 9 7 .8
3 0 0 .9
3 0 6 .3
2 9 0 .8
2 9 0 .4
2 9 4 .2
W a s h in g t o n , D . C . - M d . - V a .......................................................................................
2 8 9 .0
2 9 2 .6
2 9 6 .8
2 9 4 .3
2 9 7 .5
3 0 0 .0
1 T h e a r e a s lis te d in c lu d e n o t o n ly t h e c e n t r a l c it y b u t th e e n t ir e p o r tio n o f th e S t a n d a r d M e tr o p o lita n
2 9 3 .3
3 0 4 .2
S t. L o u is , M o . - I l l ............................................................................................................
3 0 4 .3
288 4
2 8 6 .5
S a n D ie g o , C a lif ........................................................................
S a n F r a n c is c o - O a k la n d , C a lif .............................................................................
2 9 3 .7
325 0
3 1 1 .8
2 8 2 .2
2 8 3 .0
293 2
1 6 2 .8
3 1 5 .4
3 1 2 .4
2 8 0 .6
2 9 1 .5
2 9 2 .1
1 6 1 .4
3 1 1 .0
2 8 3 .4
2 8 8 .5
2 8 9 .6
1 5 9 .7
3 1 0 .1
312 6
2 8 1 .7
283 5
2 9 4 .5
1 6 0 .8
3 0 8 .8
3 0 9 .4
2 8 3 .5
2 9 3 .6
1 5 9 .4
3 0 5 .0
M i n n e a p o lis - S t. P a u l, M i n n . - W is ...........................................................................
2 9 2 .0
278 2
2 A v e r a g e o f 8 5 c it ie s .
S t a tis tic a l A r e a , a s d e f in e d f o r th e 1 9 7 0 C e n s u s o f P o p u la tio n , e x c e p t t h a t th e S t a n d a r d C o n s o lid a t e d A r e a is
u s e d f o r N e w Y o r k a n d C h ic a g o .
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
105
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • Current Labor Statistics: Producer Prices
23.
Producer Price Indexes, by stage of processing
[1967 = 100]
A nnual
C o m m o d ity grouping
1 982
1983
averag e
Sept.
1 982
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
M a r.
Apr.
M ay1
June
July
A ug.
Sept.
2 8 3 .4
2 8 3 .1
r284 2
2 8 5 .0
2 8 5 .7
2 8 6 .2
2 8 5 .1
285 6
2 8 5 .1
F IN IS H E D GOODS
F in is h e d g o o d s .............................................................................................................
F in is h e d c o n s u m e r g o o d s
..........................................................................
F in is h e d c o n s u m e r f o o d s
2 8 0 .6
2 8 1 .2
2 8 4 .1
2 8 4 .9
2 8 5 .5
2 8 3 .9
2 8 4 .1
2 8 1 .0
2 8 1 .9
2 8 4 .3
2 8 5 .3
2 8 5 .6
2 8 3 .5
2 8 3 .7
2 8 2 .7
2 8 2 .3
r 2 8 3 .6
2 8 4 .4
2 8 5 .2
......................................................................
2 5 9 .3
2 5 9 .9
2 5 7 .7
2 5 7 .4
2 5 8 .3
2 5 8 .4
2 6 1 .0
2 6 1 .1
2 6 2 .9
r262 6
2 6 1 .0
2 6 0 .8
2 6 1 .0
C r u d e ..................................................................................................................
2 5 2 .7
2 2 8 .2
2 3 2 .4
236 1
2 4 7 .6
2 3 2 .9
2 4 0 .8
2 4 7 .9
2 6 5 .8
r2 6 7 2
2 5 0 .9
2 4 9 .7
2 6 2 .4
2 6 9 .8
P ro c e s s e d
2 5 7 .7
2 6 0 .6
2 5 7 .9
2 5 7 .2
2 5 7 .1
2 5 8 .5
2 6 0 .7
2 6 0 .1
2 6 0 .5
2 6 0 .1
2 5 9 .8
2 5 9 .6
2 5 8 .7
2 6 0 .5
....................................................................................................
2 6 3 .3
N o n d u r a b le g o o d s le s s f o o d s .............................................................
3 3 3 .6
3 3 8 .3
3 4 0 .0
D u r a b le g o o d s
2 2 6 .7
2 2 3 .0
2 3 1 .0
2 3 1 .2
2 3 2 .0
2 3 1 .7
2 3 2 .9
2 3 1 .9
2 3 2 .2
r2 3 2 .9
2 3 2 .8
2 3 3 .1
2 3 3 .5
2 2 8 .9
. . .
2 2 3 .8
2 2 5 .5
2 2 7 .8
2 2 8 .4
2 2 9 .2
2 2 8 .3
2 2 8 .9
2 2 9 .4
2 3 0 .1
r2 3 0 .3
2 3 0 .4
2 3 2 .2
2 3 2 .3
2 3 2 .8
C a p ita l e q u i p m e n t ................................................................................................
2 7 9 .4
2 7 8 .8
2 8 3 .2
2 8 3 .8
2 8 4 .9
2 8 5 .2
2 8 5 .6
2 8 5 .6
2 8 6 .2
r2 8 6 .5
2 8 6 .9
2 8 7 .4
2 8 8 .0
2 8 5 .4
In te r m e d ia te m a te r ia ls , s u p p lie s , a n d c o m p o n e n t s ...............................
3 1 0 .4
3 1 0 .5
3 0 9 .9
3 0 9 .9
3 1 0 .1
3 0 9 .2
3 0 9 .9
3 0 9 .5
3 0 8 .7
r3 0 9 .7
3 1 1 .7
3 1 3 .0
3 1 4 .4
3 1 5 .7
M a te r ia ls a n d c o m p o n e n ts f o r m a n u f a c t u r i n g ..............................
2 8 9 .8
2 8 9 .9
2 8 9 .4
2 8 8 .7
2 8 8 .3
2 8 8 .6
2 9 1 .1
2 9 0 .2
2 9 1 .0
r 2 9 1 .9
2 9 2 .4
2 9 3 .4
2 9 4 .8
2 9 6 .3
M a te r ia ls f o r f o o d m a n u f a c t u r i n g ....................................................
2 5 5 .1
2 5 7 .3
2 5 4 .2
2 5 1 .0
2 4 9 .8
2 5 0 .9
2 5 4 .1
2 5 2 .8
2 5 5 .1
r2 5 7 .0
2 5 7 .1
2 5 7 .3
2 6 0 .8
2 6 9 .3
................................................................................................
C o n s u m e r n o n d u r a b le g o o d s le s s f o o d a n d e n e r g y
3 4 2 .5
3 4 2 .2
336 6
3 3 3 .7
3 3 2 .0
3 2 8 .7
3 3 2 .0
3 3 5 .6
3 3 7 .8
3 3 8 .4
3 3 8 .6
IN TER M ED IA TE M A TER IA LS
•
...................................
2 8 4 .4
2 8 1 .7
2 8 0 .4
2 7 9 .2
2 7 8 .0
2 7 7 .0
2 7 7 .0
2 7 6 .6
2 7 7 .3
2 7 7 .7
2 7 8 .0
2 7 8 .3
2 8 1 .4
2 8 1 .9
............................................
3 1 0 .1
3 1 0 .5
3 0 9 .8
3 0 9 .3
3 0 9 .4
3 1 2 .0
3 1 9 .2
3 1 5 .7
3 1 6 .6
3 1 8 .4
3 1 8 .4
3 2 0 .1
3 2 0 .6
3 2 2 .8
C o m p o n e n t s f o r m a n u f a c t u r i n g .........................................................
2 7 3 .9
2 7 5 .8
2 7 6 .7
2 7 6 .9
2 7 7 .3
2 7 6 .8
2 7 7 .6
2 7 8 .3
2 7 8 .9
r2 7 9 .4
2 8 0 .6
2 8 1 .8
2 8 1 .7
2 8 1 .8
M a te r ia ls f o r n o n d u r a b le m a n u fa c t u r in g
M a te r ia ls f o r d u r a b le m a n u fa c t u r in g
M a te r ia ls a n d c o m p o n e n ts f o r c o n s t r u c t i o n ...................................
2 9 3 .7
2 9 4 .2
2 9 3 .7
2 9 3 .6
2 9 4 .7
2 9 6 .5
2 9 8 .8
299 6
3 0 0 .9
r 3 0 1 .2
3 0 1 .5
3 0 2 .9
3 0 3 .6
3 0 2 .8
P r o c e s s e d fu e ls a n d l u b r i c a n t s .................................................................
5 9 1 .7
5 9 2 .3
5 9 0 .0
5 9 3 .0
595 0
5 7 7 .9
5 6 5 .4
5 6 4 .2
5 4 3 .3
r5 4 7 .8
5 6 7 .4
5 7 2 .7
5 7 6 .4
5 7 9 .2
M a n u fa c t u r in g i n d u s t r i e s ..........................................................................
4 9 7 .8
4 9 6 .4
4 9 6 .6
5 0 0 .4
5 0 2 .2
4 8 5 .2
4 7 5 .5
4 8 0 .6
4 6 0 .4
r4 6 2 . 9
4 8 3 .6
4 8 7 .7
4 9 1 .1
4 9 5 .4
N o n m a n u fa c t u r in g I n d u s tr ie s
6 7 4 .3
6 7 6 .9
6 7 2 .1
6 7 4 .2
6 7 6 .4
6 5 9 .4
6 4 4 .6
6 3 7 .2
6 1 5 .9
r6 2 2 ,2
6 4 0 .5
6 4 7 .0
6 5 0 .9
6 5 2 .1
C o n t a i n e r s ............................................................................................
2 8 5 .6
2 8 5 .3
2 8 5 .1
2 8 4 .9
2 8 5 .0
2 8 5 .0
2 8 5 .3
2 8 5 .2
2 8 4 .8
r 2 8 5 .8
285 9
2 8 6 .5
2 8 6 .8
2 8 7 .3
S u p p l i e s ............................................................................................
2 8 0 .1
.............................................................
2 7 2 .1
2 7 2 .2
2 7 2 .0
2 7 2 .8
2 7 3 .0
2 7 3 .1
2 7 3 .5
2 7 3 .9
2 7 5 .5
r2 7 5 6
2 7 5 .9
2 7 6 .4
2 7 8 .0
M a n u fa c t u r in g i n d u s t r i e s .............................................................
2 6 5 .8
2 6 6 .7
2 6 6 .9
2 6 6 .9
2 6 7 .2
2 6 7 .4
2 6 7 .8
2 6 8 .1
2 6 8 .6
r268 9
2 7 0 .2
2 7 0 .4
2 7 0 .6
N o n m a n u fa c t u r in g in d u s t r ie s
2 7 5 .7
2 7 5 .3
2 7 4 .9
2 7 6 .1
2 7 6 .3
2 7 6 .4
2 7 6 .8
2 7 7 .1
2 7 9 .3
r279 3
2 7 9 .1
2 7 9 .8
2 8 2 .0
F e e d s .......................................................................................
2 8 5 .0
2 0 7 .0
1 9 8 .1
1 9 2 .9
1 9 9 .8
2 0 4 .7
2 0 6 .5
2 0 7 .4
2 0 7 .7
2 1 9 .8
r 2 1 8 .1
2 1 3 .6
2 1 6 .1
2 3 0 .2
2 4 7 .1
O th e r s u p p l i e s ......................................................................
2 8 9 .8
2 9 1 .3
2 9 1 .9
2 9 1 .9
2 9 1 .1
2 9 0 .9
2 9 1 .2
2 9 1 .6
2 9 1 .9
r2 9 2 .2
2 9 2 .8
2 9 3 .1
2 9 3 .1
2 9 3 .5
3 1 9 .5
3 1 6 .1
3 1 2 .0
3 1 3 .2
3 1 2 .7
3 1 3 .9
3 2 0 .2
3 2 1 .6
3 2 5 .8
r3 2 5 .8
3 2 3 .2
3 2 0 .6
3 2 6 .9
3 2 8 .3
2 4 7 .8
2 4 2 .9
2 3 6 .3
2 3 6 .3
2 3 7 .1
2 3 9 .6
2 4 9 .3
2 4 9 .1
2 5 6 .8
2 5 6 .5
2 5 2 .1
2 4 8 .6
2 5 6 .6
2 5 7 .4
.......................................
2 7 1 .2
CRUDE M A TER IA LS
C r u d e m a te r ia ls f o r f u r t h e r p r o c e s s in g
......................
F o o d s t u ff s a n d f e e d s t u f f s ........................................
N o n f o o d m a t e r i a l s ................................................
N o n f o o d m a te r ia ls e x c e p t f u e l ............................................
M a n u fa c t u r in g in d u s t r ie s
.................
C o n s t r u c t i o n ...................................
C r u d e f u e l .............................................................
M a n u fa c t u r in g in d u s t r ie s
. . . .
N o n m a n u fa c t u r in g i n d u s t r i e s ..................
4 7 3 .9
• 4 7 3 .7
4 7 4 .8
4 7 8 .6
4 7 5 .3
4 7 3 .6
4 7 3 .0
4 7 7 .7
4 7 4 .6
r 4 7 5 .4
4 7 6 .4
4 7 5 .5
4 7 8 .4
4 8 1 .1
3 7 6 .8
3 6 9 .5
3 7 1 .9
369 2
3 6 5 .8
3 6 8 .0
3 6 6 .0
3 6 6 .8
367 0
r 3 6 9 .0
3 6 9 .9
3 7 0 .5
3 7 4 .2
376 6
3 8 7 .2
3 7 9 .1
3 8 2 .2
3 7 9 .2
3 7 5 .0
3 7 7 .6
3 7 5 .1
3 7 5 .9
3 7 6 .1
r3 7 8 .3
3 7 9 .6
3 7 9 .6
3 8 3 .9
386 5
2 7 0 .3
2 6 8 .8
2 6 6 .3
2 6 5 .6
268 1
2 6 7 .5
2 6 9 .1
2 6 9 .3
2 7 0 .0
2 7 0 .3
2 6 8 .1
2 7 2 .9
2 7 2 .5
2 7 3 .1
8 8 6 .1
9 2 3 .5
9 1 7 .2
9 5 4 .7
9 5 2 .2
9 3 0 .7
9 3 7 .7
9 6 1 .8
9 4 1 .6
r9 3 5 .9
9 3 7 .7
9 2 9 .1
926 8
931 2
1 , 0 3 4 .8
1 ,0 8 3 .6
1 ,0 7 5 .3
1 ,1 2 5 .5
1 ,1 2 1 .4
1 ,0 9 3 .8
1 ,1 0 3 ,9
1 ,1 3 4 .3
1 ,1 0 7 .6
r 1 , 1 0 0 .9
1 ,1 0 3 .6
1 ,0 9 1 9
1 089 5
1 094 7
7 8 2 .2
8 1 0 .7
8 0 5 .9
8 3 4 .2
8 3 2 .2
8 1 5 .5
8 2 0 .0
8 3 9 .2
8 2 4 .0
r 8 1 9 .1
8 2 0 .1
8 1 4 .1
8 1 1 .7
8 1 5 .7
SPECIA L G R O U P IN G S
F in is h e d g o o d s e x c lu d in g f o o d s
. . .
2 8 5 .8
2 8 6 .3
2 9 0 .8
2 9 2 .0
2 9 2 .5
2 9 0 .3
2 8 9 .6
2 8 8 .7
2 8 7 .7
2 8 9 .3
F in is h e d c o n s u m e r g o o d s e x c lu d in g f o o d s
2 9 0 .8
291 9
292 4
?90 3
2 8 7 .8
2 8 8 .9
293 3
2 9 4 .8
2 9 5 .0
2 9 1 .4
2 9 0 .3
2 8 8 .9
2 8 7 .3
2 8 9 .4
2 9 1 .4
F in is h e d c o n s u m e r g o o d s le s s e n e r g y
292 7
293 2
291 3
2 4 4 .1
2 4 3 .9
2 4 6 .5
2 4 6 .7
2 4 7 .6
2 4 7 .1
2 4 8 .7
2 4 8 .6
2 4 9 .5
r 2 4 9 .7
2 4 9 .2
2 4 9 .8
2 5 0 .1
2 4 9 .6
3 1 5 .7
3 1 5 .9
3 1 5 .5
3 1 5 .5
3 1 5 .7
3 1 4 .6
3 1 5 .2
3 1 4 .8
3 1 3 .6
3 1 4 .6
316 8
318 1
319 2
319 8
2 9 0 .4
2 9 0 .5
2 9 0 .1
2 8 9 .8
2 9 0 .0
290 5
2 9 2 .4
2 9 2 .1
2 9 3 .2
2 9 3 .9
2 9 4 .3
2 9 5 .3
2 9 6 .6
2 9 7 .8
2 3 9 .4
2 3 8 .1
2 3 4 .4
2 3 4 .4
2 3 5 .1
2 3 6 .4
2 3 8 .8
2 3 8 .0
2 4 3 .6
r2 4 4 .4
2 4 2 .9
2 4 3 .8
2 5 0 .9
2 6 2 .2
5 3 6 .3
5 3 5 .5
5 3 7 .2
5 4 1 .9
5 3 7 ,4
5 3 6 .0
5 3 5 .1
5 3 9 .7
5 3 6 .1
5 3 6 .2
5 3 7 .5
536 3
539 0
541 7
2 4 0 .4
2 3 5 .6
2 3 0 .0
2 2 9 .2
2 2 9 .9
2 3 2 .5
2 4 1 .4
2 4 2 .7
2 4 8 .6
r2 4 9 .0
2 4 6 .0
2 4 3 .7
2 5 0 .9
2 5 2 .2
In te r m e d ia te m a te r ia ls le s s f o o d s a n d fe e d s
.
In te r m e d ia te m a te r ia ls le s s e n e r g y
In te r m e d ia te f o o d s a n d f e e d s
......................
C r u d e m a te r ia ls le s s a g r ic u lt u r a l p r o d u c ts
C r u d e m a te r ia ls le s s e n e r g y
.
.
1 D a ta f o r M a y 1 9 8 3 h a v e b e e n r e v is e d t o r e fle c t th e a v a ila b ilit y o f la te r e p o r t s a n d c o r r e c t io n s b y
r e s p o n d e n ts . A ll d a ta a r e s u b je c t t o r e v is io n 4 m o n th s a f te r o r ig in a l p u b lic a tio n .
106
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
r =
r e v is e d ,
24.
P roducer Price Indexes, by com m odity groupings
[ 1 9 6 7 = 1 0 0 u n le s s o t h e r w i s e s p e c if ie d ]
1 982
Annual
1983
a verag e
C o m m o d ity group and subgroup
Code
1 982
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan .
Feb.
M a r.
Apr.
M ay1
June
July
A ug.
Sept.
All c o m m o d itie s
2 9 9 .3
2 9 9 .3
2 9 9 .8
3 0 0 .3
3 0 0 .7
2 9 9 .9
3 0 0 .9
3 0 0 .6
300 6
r 3 0 1 .5
3 0 2 .5
3 0 3 .2
3 0 4 .9
3 0 5 .3
All c o m m o d itie s ( 1 9 5 7 -5 9 = 1 0 0 )
3 1 7 .6
3 1 7 .6
3 1 8 .1
3 1 8 .6
3 1 9 .0
3 1 8 .2
3 1 9 .3
3 1 8 .9
3 1 8 .9
r3 1 9 .9
3 2 1 .0
3 2 1 .7
323 5
3 2 3 .9
Farm products and p rocessed foods and feeds
2 4 8 .9
2 4 7 .4
2 4 3 .8
2 4 3 .9
2 4 4 .8
2 4 5 .8
2 5 0 .4
2 5 0 .6
2 5 4 .7
2 5 4 .7
3 5 2 .4
2 5 1 .6
2 5 5 .7
2 5 9 .2
In d u s tria l c o m m o d itie s
3 1 2 .3
3 1 2 .7
3 1 4 .3
3 1 5 .0
3 1 5 .2
3 1 3 .9
3 1 3 .9
3 1 3 .5
3 1 2 .4
. r 3 1 3 .6
3 1 5 .4
3 1 6 .6
3 1 7 .5
3 1 7 .2
F a r m p r o d u c t s ...........................................................................................................................
2 4 2 .4
2 3 4 .5
299 2
2 3 0 .7
2 3 2 .6
2 3 3 .2
2 4 0 .7
2 4 1 .5
2 5 0 .5
r2 5 0 .4
2 4 7 .3
2 4 4 .3
2 5 3 .5
2 5 6 .3
0 1 -1
F r e s h a n d d r ie d f r u i t s a n d v e g e t a b l e s .............................................................
2 5 3 .7
2 2 1 .0
2 2 3 .0
2 3 3 .4
2 4 8 .8
2 2 7 .6
2 2 7 .8
2 3 4 .9
2 6 6 .6
r2 6 0 .1
2 6 3 .9
2 5 8 .0
2 6 9 .9
2 7 5 .5
0 1 -2
G r a i n s ........................................................................................................................................
210 9
1 8 7 .3
1 8 3 .2
1 9 8 .6
2 6 2 .3
2 0 6 .3
222 4
2 2 7 .4
2 4 3 .8
2 4 2 .2
2 4 1 .5
2 3 6 .7
2 5 1 .8
2 5 8 .0
0 1 -3
L i v e s t o c k ................................... ...........................................................................................
2 5 7 .8
2 5 9 .0
2 4 8 .5
2 3 9 .1
2 3 7 .2
2 4 2 .3
2 5 1 .1
2 5 1 .4
2 6 0 .6
2 5 8 .0
2 5 1 .7
2 4 0 .7
2 4 2 .2
231 5
0 1 -4
L iv e p o u l t r y ...........................................................................................................................
1 9 1 .9
1 9 6 .5
1 7 7 .1
1 8 1 .6
1 7 7 .8
1 7 7 .1
2 0 0 .1
1 7 7 .8
1 7 0 .8
1 8 6 .9
1 9 9 .3
2 1 4 .5
2 2 1 .4
2 4 2 .2
0 1 -5
P la n t a n d a n im a l f ib e r s
............................................................................................
2 0 2 .9
1 9 6 .8
1 9 8 .1
1 9 5 .3
2 0 0 .6
2 0 1 .7
2 0 6 .4
2 1 7 .0
2 1 3 .6
r2 2 3 .8
229 7
2 3 0 .4
2 4 0 .7
2 3 8 .7
0 1 -6
F lu id m i l k ...............................................................................................................................
282 5
281 9
2 8 5 .0
2 8 5 .9
2 8 5 .5
2 8 4 .5
2 8 4 .3
2 8 2 .9
2 8 0 .8
2 7 9 .8
2 7 8 .6
2 7 8 .7
281 7
FA R M P R O D U C TS A N D PRO CESSED FOODS
AND FEEDS
01
2 8 4 .4
0 1 -7
E g g s ............................................................................................................................................
1 7 8 .7
1 7 3 .3
1 7 7 .9
1 7 2 .5
1 7 0 .0
1 7 0 .0
1 7 0 .0
1 7 0 .0
1 7 0 .0
1 8 5 .1
1 6 9 .3
1 7 7 .2
1 8 9 .5
200 1
0 1 -8
H a y , h a y s e e d s , a n d o ils e e d s
...............................................................................
2 1 2 .8
2 0 1 .8
1 9 4 .3
2 0 4 .8
2 0 9 .0
2 1 2 .4
2 1 7 .9
2 1 7 .8
2 2 6 .3
2 2 7 .3
2 1 3 .3
2 2 7 .3
2 6 2 .8
2 9 7 .8
0 1 -9
O th e r f a r m p r o d u c t s .....................................................................................................
2 7 4 .5
2 7 6 .8
2 7 4 .0
2 7 6 .3
2 8 0 .1
2 7 9 .9
2 8 1 .2
2 8 0 .3
2 7 9 .2
2 8 1 .0
2 8 4 .4
2 8 2 .5
2 8 5 .7
2 8 7 .3
2 5 0 .2
2 5 0 .5
2 5 6 .0
2 5 6 .1
0 2 -1
C e r e a l a n d b a k e r y p r o d u c t s ...................................................................................
2 5 3 .8
2 5 4 .0
2 5 3 .0
2 5 4 .2
2 5 6 .2
2 5 7 .3
2 5 6 .8
2 5 6 .9
2 5 8 .8
r 2 5 9 .1
2 6 0 .0
2 6 1 .9
2 6 2 .6
2 6 3 .2
0 2 -2
02
P r o c e s s e d f o o d s a n d f e e d s ............................................................................................
M e a ts , p o u ltr y , a n d f i s h ............................................................................................
2 5 7 .6
2 6 5 .7
2 5 6 .9
2 5 1 .6
2 4 9 .9
2 5 2 .3
2 6 1 .0
2 6 0 .7
259 1
r2 5 7 8
2 5 0 .3
2 4 8 .2
2 4 5 .1
2 4 4 .3
0 2 -3
D a r y p r o d u c ts
..................................................................................................................
2 5 1 .5
2 4 9 .1
2 5 0 .8 '
2 5 4 .5
2 5 4 .2
2 5 4 .6
2 5 5 .8
259 7
250 2
2 5 0 .8
2 5 0 .3
2 5 0 .4
2 5 0 .5
P r o c e s s e d f r u i t s a n d v e g e t a b l e s ...........................................................................
2 7 4 .5
2 7 2 .8
2 7 3 .4
2 7 2 .8
2 7 5 .7
2 7 4 .8
2 7 4 .3
2 7 4 .9
2 7 3 .7
r2 7 5 .3
2 7 6 .8
2 7 7 .0
2 7 8 .2
2 7 8 .1
S u g a r a n d c o n f e c t i o n e r y ............................................................................................
2 6 9 .7
2 7 8 .5
2 7 6 .3
2 8 0 .4
2 8 0 .1
2 8 2 .1
2 8 6 .4
283 7
2 8 7 .4
r 2 8 9 .9
2 9 6 .0
2 9 6 .4
2 9 8 .9
3 0 0 .1
0 2 -6
B e v e r a g e s a n d b e v e r a g e m a te r ia ls
2 5 6 .9
2 5 7 .1
2 5 7 .9
2 5 8 .4
2 5 8 .8
2 6 0 .1
2 6 1 .3
2 6 2 .0
2 6 3 .0
r 2 6 3 .6
2 6 2 .8
2 6 3 .0
2 6 3 .4
2 6 4 .5
F a ts a n d o il s
......................................................................................................................
2 5 0 .7
2 5 4 .7
0 2 -4
0 2 -7
2 4 9 .8
2 5 1 .7
0 2 -5
..................................................................
2 4 8 .9
253 5
2 5 0 .9
2 5 0 .7
2 5 1 .0
2 5 0 .9
2 5 0 .4
2 1 1 .4
2 1 3 .8
2 1 9 .4
2 2 2 .7
2 4 5 .7
3 0 3 .7
0 2 -8
M is c e lla n e o u s p r o c e s s e d f o o d s ...........................................................................
2 4 8 .6
2 4 7 .0
2 4 7 .9
2 4 7 .8
2 4 8 .6
2 4 8 .8
2 4 9 .3
2 4 8 .5
2 4 9 .9
2 4 9 .9
2 5 0 .4
2 5 3 .9
2 5 1 .8
2 5 7 .5
0 2 -9
P r e p a r e d a n im a l f e e d s ................................................................................................
2 1 1 .3
2 0 4 .3
1 9 9 .8
2 0 6 .0
2 1 0 .1
2 1 1 .6
2 1 2 .3
2 1 2 .4
222 8
r 2 2 1 .3
2 1 7 .3
2 1 9 .9
2 3 2 .6
2 4 7 .2
2 0 4 .6
2 0 4 .3
2 0 4 .1
2 0 3 .9
2 0 2 .6
2 0 2 .7
2 0 2 .6
2 0 3 .4
2 0 3 .5
r 2 0 4 .3
2 0 4 .5
2 0 5 .1
2 0 5 .7
2 0 5 .8
1 6 2 .1
1 6 2 .5
1 6 1 .1
1 6 1 .2
1 5 9 .7
1 5 6 .7
1 5 3 .1
1 5 3 .9
1 5 3 .8
r 1 5 5 .6
1 5 6 .6
1 5 9 .1
1 5 8 .4
1 5 8 .6
1 3 8 .3
1 3 6 .6
1 3 6 .5
1 3 6 .7
1 3 6 .7
1 3 4 .7
1 3 5 .0
1 3 5 .8
1 3 6 .0
M 3 7 .4
1 3 7 .6
1 3 8 .5
1 4 0 .2
1 4 0 .5
1 4 3 .7
1 4 3 .1
1 4 4 .3
M 4 6 .2
1 4 5 .8
1 4 6 .0
1 4 6 .6
1 4 7 .1
2 1 5 .1
2 0 7 .2
2 0 3 .0
2 0 1 .7
2 0 5 .3
2 0 6 .0
2 1 4 .6
r2 2 0 .0
IN D U S T R IA L C O M M O D IT IE S
03
T e x t ile p r o d u c ts a n d a p p a r e l ........................................................................................
0 3 -1
S y n t h e tic f ib e r s ( 1 2 / 7 5 =
0 3 -2
P r o c e s s e d y a r n s a n d t h r e a d s ( 1 2 /7 5 =
0 3 -3
G r a y f a b r i c s ( 1 2 /7 5 =
1 0 0 ) ......................................................................
100)
.......................................
1 0 0 ) ...................................................................................
1 4 3 .3
1 4 4 .4
1 4 5 .1
1 4 5 .8
0 3 -4
F in is h e d f a b r i c s ( 1 2 / 7 5 =
1 0 0 ) ..........................................................................
1 2 4 .6
1 2 3 .7
1 2 3 .2
1 2 3 .0
1 2 2 .8
1 2 2 .2
1 2 2 .3
1 2 2 .4
1 2 3 .1
r 1 2 2 .8
1 2 2 .5
1 2 2 .4
1 2 3 .5
0 3 -8 1
A p p a r e l ....................................................................................................................................
1 9 4 .4
1 9 5 .4
1 9 5 .7
1 9 5 .4
1 9 3 .0
1 9 4 .4
1 9 5 .0
1 9 6 .1
1 9 5 .8
r 1 9 6 .5
1 9 6 .6
1 9 7 .1
1 9 7 .3
1 9 7 .4
0 3 -8 2
T e x t ile h o u s e f u r n i s h i n g s ............................................................................................
2 3 8 .5
2 3 8 .2
2 3 6 .2
2 3 6 .2
236 2
2 3 6 .5
2 3 4 .3
2 3 4 .2
2 3 4 .2
r2 3 7 .6
2 3 9 .5
238 9
2 3 8 .5
2 3 8 .6
04
H id e s , s k in s , le a th e r , a n d r e la te d p r o d u c t s .....................................................
0 4 -2
L e a th e r
0 4 -3
F o o tw e a r
0 4 -4
O t h e r le a t h e r a n d r e la te d p r o d u c ts
05
0 5 -1
....................................................................................................................................
.........................................................................................................
1 2 3 .3
2 6 2 .6
2 6 3 .5
2 6 3 .2
2 6 3 .2
2 6 4 .1
2 6 6 .7
2 6 4 .3
2 6 4 .9
2 6 7 .4
r2 6 9 .4
2 7 0 .6
2 7 2 .7
2 7 5 .5
2 7 5 .3
3 1 1 .4
3 0 9 .2
3 0 9 .5
3 1 2 .8
3 1 4 .4
3 1 4 .4
3 1 2 .8
3 1 6 .2
3 2 0 .5
r 3 2 6 .6
3 3 4 .0
3 3 3 .3
3 4 5 .7
3 4 1 .8
2 4 5 .0
2 4 8 .3
2 4 8 .0
2 4 9 .1
2 4 7 .7
2 5 1 .5
2 4 7 .7
2 4 8 .1
2 5 0 .0
2 4 8 .7
2 4 9 .0
249 9
2 5 0 .1
2 5 0 .9
2 4 7 .4
2 4 7 .7
2 4 7 .2
2 4 7 .1
2 4 9 .1
2 5 0 .8
2 5 1 .0
2 5 0 .9
2 5 1 .0
r 2 5 1 .7
2 5 2 .1
2 5 7 .4
2 5 7 .6
2 5 7 .0
F u e ls a n d r e la te d p r o d u c ts a n d p o w e r ..................................................................
6 9 3 .2
7 0 0 .4
6 9 8 .8
7 0 6 .1
7 0 3 .4
6 8 3 .6
6 6 8 .6
6 5 8 .0
6 4 4 .8
r 6 5 1 .9
6 6 8 .7
6 7 1 .6
6 7 4 .3
6 7 5 .7
C o a l ............................................................................................................................................
0 5 -2
C o k e ...............................................................................................................................
G a s f u e ls 2
.....................................................................................................
0 5 -4
E le c tir c p o w e r
0 5 -6 1
C r u d e p e t r o le u m 3
0 5 -7
P e t r o le u m p r o d u c t s , r e fin e d 4
.........................................................................................................
............................................................................................
..........................................................................
C h e m ic a ls a n d a llie d p r o d u c t s ..................................................................
0 6 -1
1 4 3 .6
..................................................................
0 5 -3
06
1 4 5 .3
5 3 4 .7
5 3 8 .5
5 3 8 .1
5 3 9 .6
5 3 8 .7
5 3 5 .6
5 3 3 .4
5 3 8 .6
5 3 8 .0
r 5 3 5 .2
5 3 4 .0
5 3 5 .5
5 3 4 .0
5 3 6 .1
4 6 1 .7
4 6 0 .0
4 5 2 .3
5 6 2 .3
4 5 2 .3
4 5 0 .9
4 5 0 .9
4 4 7 .3
4 4 7 .3
4 3 8 .4
4 3 8 .4
4 3 8 .4
4 3 4 .6
4 5 3 .9
1 ,0 6 0 .8
1 ,1 1 2 .2
1 , 1 3 0 .1
1 ,1 9 0 .0
1 ,1 8 1 .2
1 ,1 4 7 .3
1 ,1 5 4 .7
1 ,1 8 0 .0
1 , 1 5 6 .1
r 1 ,1 5 6 .7
1 ,1 5 7 .4
1 ,1 5 1 .2
1 ,1 4 8 .2
1 ,1 4 9 .3
4 0 6 .5
4 1 5 .0
4 0 8 .7
4 0 4 .9
4 0 9 .9
4 1 0 .8
4 1 0 .8
4 1 1 .4
4 0 9 .2
r4 1 2 .2
4 1 9 .7
4 2 5 .1
4 2 5 .9
4 2 8 .2
7 3 3 .4
7 1 8 .3
7 3 5 .3
7 3 3 .6
7 2 0 .0
719 7
6 9 2 .9
6 7 8 .0
6 7 8 .0
r6 7 8 .0
6 7 8 .4
6 7 6 .1
6 7 5 .5
6 7 6 .1
7 6 1 .2
7 6 1 .6
7 5 4 .6
7 5 8 .0
7 5 4 .2
7 2 0 .6
6 9 2 .8
6 6 6 .6
6 4 5 .9
r6 5 9 .3
6 9 0 .1
6 9 4 .9
7 0 1 .1
7 0 1 .8
2 9 2 .3
2 9 0 .7
2 8 9 .9
2 9 0 .5
2 8 9 .6
2 8 9 .3
290 5
2 8 9 .8
2 9 1 .3
r 2 9 1 .1
2 9 1 .3
2 9 1 .3
2 9 4 .9
2 9 4 .8
3 4 2 .4
3 4 6 .3
I n d u s tr ia l c h e m ic a ls 5 ........................................................................................
3 5 2 .6
3 4 6 .5
3 4 5 .8
3 4 5 .2
3 3 9 .3
3 4 0 .1
3 3 8 .8
3 3 8 .7
r3 3 8 .8
3 3 9 .7
3 3 8 .8
3 4 8 .5
0 6 -2 1
P r e p a r e d p a in t
2 6 2 .8
2 6 4 .7
2 6 4 .7
2 6 4 .7
2 6 4 .7
2 6 4 .7
2 6 4 .7
2 6 4 .7
2 6 4 .7
r 2 6 4 .7
2 6 5 .1
265 6
2 6 5 .7
0 6 -2 2
P a in t m a t e r i a l s ......................................................................
3 0 4 .6
3 0 3 .0
3 0 3 .0
3 0 2 .4
3 0 1 .7
3 0 1 .5
2 9 9 .5
2 9 8 .4
2 9 9 .8
r3 0 0 .2
2 9 9 .3
3 0 0 .4
3 0 5 .5
3 1 6 .0
0 6 -3
D r u g s a n d p h a r m a c e u t ic a ls
2 1 0 .1
2 1 2 .4
2 1 4 .9
2 1 5 .5
2 1 6 .0
2 1 8 .6
2 2 2 .2
2 2 2 .9
2 2 5 .1
r2 2 5 .2
2 2 5 .7
2 2 7 .5
2 2 7 .8
2 2 8 .0
0 6 -4
F a ts a n d o il s , i n e d i b l e ......................................................................
2 6 7 .1
2 5 4 .1
2 4 2 .3
2 3 9 .6
2 4 0 .8
2 4 2 .0
2 5 3 .4
2 6 2 .2
2 7 8 .3
r2 8 7 .1
2 7 7 .9
2 6 3 .6
2 7 7 .8
3 0 5 .5
0 6 -5
A g r ic u l t u r a l c h e m ic a ls a n d c h e m ic a l p r o d u c t s ...................................
2 9 2 .4
2 8 9 .9
2 8 8 .8
2 8 6 .5
2 8 5 .2
2 8 3 .2
2 8 3 .3
2 8 4 .2
2 8 2 .8
r2 8 2 .4
2 8 1 .7
2 7 8 .6
2 7 7 .6
276 0
0 6 -6
P la s tic r e s in s a n d m a t e r i a l s .....................................................
2 8 3 .4
2 8 1 .6
2 8 1 .3
2 8 2 .2
2 8 2 .5
2 8 3 .8
2 8 3 .1
2 8 2 .1
2 8 5 .4
r2 8 8 .0
289 1
2 9 0 .6
2 9 4 .1
2 9 3 .1
0 6 -7
O t h e r c h e m ic a ls a n d a llie d p r o d u c ts
2 7 0 .1
2 7 1 .2
2 6 8 .6
2 7 2 .3
2 7 2 .0
2 7 2 .8
2 7 4 .4
2 7 2 .0
2 7 4 .7
r2 7 2 .0
2 7 2 .0
2 7 3 .6
2 7 4 .4
2 7 4 .5
2 4 1 .4
2 4 2 .5
2 4 2 .2
2 4 1 .7
2 4 2 .2
2 4 2 .9
2 4 2 .3
2 4 1 .8
2 4 3 .0
r 2 4 3 .2
2 4 2 .7
2 4 4 .4
07
R u b b e r p la s t ic p r o d u c ts
...........................................................................
...................................
..................................................................
0 7 -1
R u b b e r a n d r u b b e r p r o d u c ts
0 7 -1 1
C ru d e ru b b e r
...............................
.....................................................
2 4 4 .6
2 6 4 .5
2 4 4 .5
2 6 7 .8
2 6 9 .5
2 6 8 .9
2 6 7 .9
268 2
2 6 9 .6
2 6 8 .3
2 6 7 .1
2 6 7 .0
r 2 6 7 .0
2 6 7 .8
2 6 7 .6
2 6 7 .2
2 6 6 .8
2 7 8 .9
2 7 6 .6
2 7 2 .5
2709
2 7 1 .1
2 7 1 .1
2 7 4 .3
2 8 1 .2
2 8 1 .3
r280 6
2 8 0 .1
2 8 3 .1
2 8 4 .4
2 8 4 .3
2 4 2 .5
0 7 -1 2
T ir e s a n d t u b e s ..................................................................
2 5 5 .2
2 5 5 .6
2 5 5 .7
2 5 4 .5
2 5 6 .0
2 5 9 .1
250 5
2 4 6 .6
2 4 6 .5
r 2 4 6 .3
2 4 4 .0
2 4 2 .7
2 4 2 .4
0 7 -1 3
M is c e lla n e o u s r u b b e r p r o d u c t s .........................................................
2 7 6 .9
2 8 1 .6
2 8 1 .4
2 8 0 .7
2 7 9 .7
2 8 4 .5
2 8 9 .6
2 8 5 .8
2 8 5 .7
r 2 8 6 .0
2 9 1 .5
2 9 1 .5
2 9 0 .6
2 8 9 .3
0 7 -2
P la s tic p r o d u c t s ( 6 / 7 8 =
1 3 2 .3
1 3 2 .7
1 3 2 .7
1 3 2 .7
1 3 3 .0
1 3 3 .0
1 3 3 .1
1 3 3 .2
1 3 4 .6 ,
r 1 3 4 .8
1 3 3 .9
1 3 5 .9
1 3 6 .3
1 3 6 .4
08
L u m b e r a n d w o o d p r o d u c ts
100)
............................................
...........................
2 8 4 .7
2 8 3 .0
2 7 9 .4
279 9
285 6
2 9 3 .3
3 0 3 .1
3 0 5 .8
3 0 7 .2
r 3 0 8 .0
3 1 2 .5
3 1 4 .5
3 1 3 .9
3 0 6 .0
0 8 -1
L u m b e r ...........................................................................
3 1 0 .8
3 1 0 .3
3 0 5 .6
305 1
3 1 2 .6
3 2 6 .8
3 4 4 .7
3 4 9 .3
3 5 4 .2
r3 5 8 .6
3 7 1 .3
0 8 -2
3 7 2 .5
3 6 6 .6
3 4 8 .2
M i l l w o r k .....................................................
2 7 9 .4
2 7 9 .5
2 7 8 .6
280 3
2 8 6 .5
293 7
'3 0 0 . 5
3 0 4 .0
302 8
r2 9 9 .0
2 9 4 .7
2 9 6 .1
3 0 7 .7
3 0 5 .7
0 8 -3
P l y w o o d ..............................................................
2 3 2 .1
2 2 8 .5
2 2 4 .0
2 2 7 .8
2 3 1 .2
2 3 5 .3
2 3 9 .5
2 3 8 .9
2 3 9 .4
r 2 4 1 .1
2 5 3 .4
0 8 -4
2 5 2 .5
2 4 4 .8
2 4 2 .4
O th e r w o o d p r o d u c t s .....................................................
2 3 6 .2
2 3 5 .6
2 3 5 .8
2 3 3 .0
2 3 1 .2
2 3 2 .0
2 3 3 .2
2 3 1 .6
2 3 0 .8
2 3 1 .1
229 6
2 2 9 .7
2 2 9 .3
2 2 9 .6
S e e f o o t n o t e s a t e n d o f t a b le .
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
107
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • Current Labor Statistics: Producer Prices
24.
C ontinued— Producer Price Indexes, by com m odity groupings
[1967 = 100 unless otherwise specified]
Annual
C o m m o d ity group and subgroup
Code
1982
1983
a verag e
1982
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D ec.
Jan.
Feb.
M a r.
Apr.
M ay1
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
2 9 7 .7
2 9 8 .0
2 9 9 .1
IN D U S T R IA L C O M M O D IT IE S — Continued
09
P u lp , p a p e r , a n d a llie d p r o d u c t s ..............................................................................
2 8 8 .7
2 8 9 .4
2 8 9 .8
2 8 9 .8
2 9 0 .5
2 9 3 .6
2 9 4 .2
2 9 4 .8
2 9 5 .4
r 2 9 6 .0
2 9 6 .7
0 9 -1
P u lp , p a p e r ,a n d p r o d u c ts , e x c lu d in g b u ild in g p a p e r a n d b o a r d
2 7 3 .2
2 7 1 .5
2 7 0 .3
2 6 9 .4
2 6 8 .8
2 6 9 .8
2 6 8 .7
2 6 8 .7
2 6 8 .5
r 2 6 8 .7
2 6 9 .4
2 6 9 .9
2 7 0 .1
2 7 1 .7
0 9 -1 1
W o o d p u l p ..............................................................................................................................
3 7 9 .0
3 6 5 .0
3 5 0 .4
3 4 7 .3
3 4 7 .2
3 4 6 .6
3 4 5 .7
3 4 3 .0
3 4 2 .5
r3 4 3 .2
3 4 6 .5
3 4 7 .5
3 4 8 .2
3 4 8 .4
0 9 -1 2
W a s t e p a p e r ..........................................................................................................................
1 2 1 .1
1 1 6 .0
1 1 6 .0
1 1 6 .0
1 1 6 .0
1 1 6 .0
1 1 6 .0
1 1 6 .0
1 1 6 .0
1 1 6 .0
1 1 6 .0
1 1 6 .0
1 1 6 .0
1 1 6 .0
2 7 9 .3
2 7 8 .8
2 7 8 .4
2 7 8 .5
r2 7 9 .0
1 7 9 .6
2 8 1 .7
2 8 1 .0
2 8 5 .3
0 9 -1 3
Paper
2 8 6 .3
2 8 5 .3
2 8 5 .4
2 8 0 .6
2 7 9 .2
0 9 -1 4
P a p e rb o a rd
..........................................................................................................................
2 5 4 .9
2 5 0 .7
2 4 8 .0
2 4 7 .6
2 4 4 .1
2 4 3 .3
2 4 4 .1
2 4 6 .3
2 4 8 .1
r 2 4 8 .7
2 4 9 .6
2 4 9 .5
2 5 0 .4
0 9 -1 5
C o n v e r te d p a p e r a n d p a p e r b o a r d p r o d u c t s ................................................
2 6 4 .4
2 6 4 .2
2 6 4 .0
2 6 4 .7
2 6 4 .8
2 6 5 .0
2 6 5 .1
2 6 5 .1
2 6 4 .2
r 2 6 4 .1
2 6 4 .7
2 6 4 .5
2 6 5 .0
2 6 5 .3
0 9 -2
B u ild in g p a p e r a n d b o a r d
.......................................................................................
2 3 9 .5
2 4 3 .4
2 4 2 .1
2 4 1 .0
2 4 2 .0
2 4 1 .1
2 4 1 .4
2 4 4 .2
2 4 7 .0
2 4 9 .3
2 5 5 .7
2 5 6 .2
2 5 2 .1
2 5 2 .8
3 0 4 .7
10
.......................................................................................................................................
2 5 2 .8
M e ta ls a n d m e ta l p r o d u c t s ............................................................................................
3 0 1 .6
3 0 1 .8
3 0 1 .6
3 0 0 .5
2 9 9 .9
3 0 0 .3
3 0 4 .4
3 0 4 .6
r3 0 6 .1
3 0 6 .4
1 0 -1
I r o n a n d s t e e ......................................................................................................................
3 3 9 .0
3 3 6 .5
3 3 7 .6
3 3 5 .9
3 3 2 .8
3 3 3 .3
3 3 9 .9
3 4 1 .6
3 4 1 .5
r3 4 0 .9
3 4 0 .4
3 4 1 .3
3 4 2 .8
3 4 7 .6
1 0 -1 7
S te e l m i ll p r o d u c t s .........................................................................................................
3 4 9 .5
3 4 8 .2
3 4 9 .8
3 4 8 .6
3 4 4 .7
3 4 3 .7
3 5 1 .1
3 4 9 .8
3 4 9 .7
r3 4 9 .8
3 4 9 .0
3 4 9 .9
3 5 1 .4
3 5 7 .7
1 0 -2
3 0 7 .4
3 0 8 .5
3 1 0 .9
N o n f e r r o u s m e t a l s .....................................................................................................
2 6 3 .6
2 6 5 .1
2 6 2 .9
2 6 1 .7
2 6 3 .2
2 6 7 .0
2 7 5 .8
2 7 0 .6
2 7 1 .8
r2 7 7 .7
2 7 5 .5
2 7 7 .6
2 7 9 .6
2 8 2 .1
1 0 -3
M e ta l c o n t a in e r s
3 2 8 .5
3 2 8 .8
3 2 9 .7
3 2 9 .0
3 2 8 .3
3 2 7 .9
3 3 1 .1
3 3 1 .4
3 3 1 .9
r3 3 7 .1
3 3 6 .8
3 3 7 .4
3 3 8 .0
3 3 8 .3
1 0 -4
H a r d w a r e ....................................................................................................
2 8 0 .3
2 8 2 .7
2 8 3 .0
2 8 3 .1
2 8 5 .8
2 8 7 .2
2 8 7 .9
2 8 8 .2
2 8 8 .6
r 2 8 8 .5
2 8 9 .2
2 8 9 .7
2 8 9 .8
.............................................................................................................
P lu m b in g f ix t u r e s a n d b r a s s f it t in g s
2 7 8 .7
2 7 7 .1
2 7 7 .8
2 7 8 .3
2 7 9 .2
2 8 0 .6
2 8 3 .5
2 8 5 .6
2 8 7 .7
r2 8 9 .1
2 9 0 .6
2 9 2 .1
2 9 1 .9
2 9 1 .5
H e a tin g e q u i p m e n t ...................................................................................
2 3 7 .2
2 3 9 .1
2 3 8 .4
2 3 8 .8
2 3 9 .3
2 4 0 .7
2 4 0 .7
2 4 1 .1
2 4 2 .3
r24 2 7
1 4 2 .6
2 4 9 .0
2 4 4 .8
2 4 4 .7
1 0 -7
F a b r ic a te d s tr u c tu r a l m e ta l p r o d u c ts
3 0 4 .8
3 0 6 .4
3 0 5 .9
3 0 5 .3
3 0 4 .7
3 0 3 .6
3 0 2 .8
3 0 3 .7
3 0 2 .5
3 0 2 .1
3 0 1 .9
3 0 2 .2
3 0 2 .8
3 0 3 .8
1 0 -8
M i s c e lla n e o u s m e ta l p r o d u c t s ................................................
2 8 2 .3
2 8 3 .8
2 8 4 .1
2 8 3 .4
2 8 3 .2
2 7 9 .1
2 7 9 .0
2 8 0 .4
2 8 0 .7
r2 8 0 .8
2 8 7 .4
2 8 7 .4
2 8 7 .6
2 8 7 .7
11
.............................................................
2 8 9 .8
1 0 -5
1 0 -6
..........................
..................
M a c h in e r y a n d e q u ip m e n t
2 7 8 .8
2 8 0 .2
2 8 1 .1
2 8 1 .8
2 8 2 ,4
2 8 3 .3
2 8 4 .3
2 8 4 .7
2 8 5 .4
r2 8 6 .0
2 8 5 .8
286 9
2 8 7 .1
2 8 7 .5
1 1 -1
A g r ic u l t u r a l m a c h in e r y a n d e q u ip m e n t
3 1 1 .1
3 1 4 .1
3 1 7 .5
3 1 8 .7
3 2 0 .7
3 2 2 .4
3 2 3 .3
3 2 3 .5
3 2 3 .9
r3 2 6 .4
3 2 5 .5
3 2 6 .2
3 2 7 .1
3 2 8 .0
1 1 -2
C o n s t r u c t io n m a c h in e r y a n d e q u i p m e n t ...............................
3 4 3 .9
3 4 7 .5
3 4 7 .6
3 4 7 .9
3 4 8 ,1
3 4 8 .3
3 4 9 .3
3 4 9 .6
3 5 0 .9
r3 5 2 .3
3 5 2 .5
3 5 2 .7
3 5 2 .8
3 5 3 .4
1 1 -3
M e ta lw o r k in g m a c h in e r y a n d e q u i p m e n t ...............................
3 2 0 .9
3 2 3 .1
3 2 3 .1
3 2 3 .5
3 2 3 .6
3 2 4 .1
3 2 5 .2
3 2 5 .5
3 2 6 .2
r3 2 6 . 7
3 2 6 .6
3 2 6 .5
3 2 6 .1
3 2 6 .3
11 4
G e n e ra l p u r p o s e m a c h in e r y a n d e q u ip m e n t
......................
3 0 4 .0
3 0 5 .0
3 0 5 .9
3 0 6 .4
3 0 7 .0
3 0 7 .4
3 0 7 .9
3 0 7 .5
3 0 8 .4
3 0 8 .5
3 0 8 .4
1 1 -6
S p e c ia l in d u s t r y m a c h in e r y a n d e q u i p m e n t ...................................
3 2 5 .1
3 2 6 .8
3 2 7 .8
3 2 9 .1
3 2 9 .9
3 3 1 .8
3 3 2 .6
3 3 3 .6
3 3 4 .5
r3 3 5 .8
3 3 6 .3
3 3 7 .8
3 3 8 .9
3 3 9 .7
1 1 -7
E le c tr ic a l m a c h in e r y a n d - e q u i p m e n t ..................
2 3 1 .6
2 3 1 .7
2 3 2 .6
2 3 3 .7
2 3 4 .2
2 3 5 .2
2 3 7 .2
2 3 7 .5
2 3 8 .4
r 2 3 8 .5
2 3 8 .2
2 4 0 .8
2 4 1 .2
2 4 2 .1
1 1 -9
M is c e lla n e o u s m a c h in e r y
2 6 8 .4
2 7 1 .5
2 7 1 .6
2 7 2 .0
2 7 2 .3
2 7 2 .9
2 7 2 .7
2 7 3 .7
2 7 4 .2
r 2 7 5 .3
2 7 4 .8
2 7 4 .9
2 7 5 .0
2 7 4 .5
2 0 6 .9
2 0 8 .3
2 0 8 .9
2 0 8 .9
2 0 9 .2
2 1 0 .7
2 1 2 .5
2 1 2 .3
2 1 2 .8
r2 1 3 .6
2 1 3 .6
2 1 4 .4
2 1 4 .5
2 1 4 .9
2 2 9 .8
2 3 0 .7
2 3 1 .2
2 3 1 .4
2 3 2 .0
2 3 1 .9
2 3 2 ,6
2 3 1 .1
2 3 1 .8
r2 3 4 .4
2 3 4 .8
2 3 5 .3
2 3 5 .4
2 3 6 .3
2 7 5 .5
2 7 8 .2
2 7 8 .3
2 7 8 .6
2 7 8 .5
2 8 1 .1
2 8 2 .2
2 8 5 .1
2 8 6 .2
r 2 8 5 .9
2 8 7 .0
2 8 7 .9
2 8 7 .2
12
..........................
.........................................................
F u r n it u r e a n d h o u s e h o ld d u r a b l e s .......................................
3 0 8 .2
3 0 8 .2
3 0 8 .1
1 2 -1
H o u s e h o ld f u r n i t u r e
1 2 -2
C o m m e r c ia l f u r n i t u r e .........................................................
1 2 -3
F lo o r c o v e r i n g s ....................................................
1 8 1 .2
1 8 1 .5
1 8 1 .6
1 8 1 .3
1 8 1 .5
1 8 2 .2
1 8 2 .1
1 8 2 .0
1 8 2 .2
r 1 8 2 .1
1 8 0 .6
1 8 5 .1
1 8 8 .1
1 8 8 .2
1 2 -4
H o u s e h o ld a p p lia n c e s
1 9 9 .1
2 0 1 .2
2 0 1 .3
2 0 1 .2
2 0 1 .8
2 0 3 .9
2 0 4 .9
2 0 5 .0
2 0 6 .3
r 2 0 7 .5
2 0 7 .0
2 0 7 .4
2 0 7 .3
1 2 -5
2 0 7 .6
H o m e e le c t r o n ic e q u i p m e n t ...............................
8 8 .1
8 7 .4
8 7 .8
8 7 .0
8 7 .1
8 7 .3
8 7 .0
8 7 .0
8 6 .6
r8 6 4
8 6 .4
8 6 .1
8 6 .0
8 5 .8
1 2 -6
O t h e r h o u s e h o ld d u r a b le g o o d s .......................................
2 8 9 .3
2 9 3 .4
2 9 6 .5
2 9 7 .2
2 9 8 ,1
3 0 2 .8
3 1 4 .8
3 1 2 .9
3 1 2 .0
r3 1 2 .7
3 1 2 .9
3 1 3 .5
3 1 2 .3
3 1 3 .0
3 2 0 .2
3 2 1 .2
3 2 1 .2
3 2 0 .5
3 2 7 .2
13
............................................
.........................................................
N o n m e ta llic m in e r a l p r o d u c ts
..................
3 2 1 .1
2 8 7 .7
3 2 1 .5
3 2 2 .3
3 2 2 .0
3 2 4 .1
r3 2 4 1
3 2 4 .6
3 2 5 .4
3 2 6 .2
1 3 -1 1
F la t g l a s s .............................................................
2 2 1 .5
2 2 1 .1
2 2 1 .1
2 2 5 .3
2 2 5 .3
2 2 9 .7
2 2 9 .7
2 2 9 .7
2 2 9 .7
2 2 9 .7
2 2 9 .7
1 3 -2
2 2 9 .8
2 2 9 .8
2 2 9 .6
C o n c r e te i n g r e d i e n t s .......................................
3 1 0 .0
3 1 0 .8
3 0 9 .9
3 1 0 .0
3 0 6 .7
3 0 7 .2
3 1 0 .0
3 0 8 .5
3 1 2 .8
r3 1 3 . 7
3 1 5 .4
1 3 -3
3 1 5 .4
3 1 7 .2
3 1 8 .9
C o n c r e te p r o d u c ts
2 9 7 .8
2 9 8 .7
2 9 8 .6
2 9 8 .2
2 9 8 .5
2 9 9 .4
3 0 0 .1
3 0 0 .4
3 0 1 .0
r 3 0 1 .1
3 0 1 .4
3 0 2 .2
3 0 2 .3
302 8
2 8 1 .7
....................................................
1 3 -4
S t r u c t u r a l c la y p r o d u c ts , e x c lu d in g r e fr a c to r ie s
2 6 0 .8
2 6 4 .0
2 6 4 .0
2 6 4 .8
2 6 4 .8
2 6 4 .9
2 6 4 .3
2 7 0 .7
2 7 5 .7
r 2 7 7 .6
2 8 0 .8
2 8 1 .7
1 3 -5
2 8 1 .7
R e f r a c t o r i e s .......................................
3 3 7 .1
3 4 0 .8
3 4 0 .8
3 3 7 .2
3 3 7 .2
3 3 7 .7
3 3 7 .7
3 3 7 .7
3 3 8 .2
r3 3 8 .2
1 3 -6
3 3 7 .3
3 3 8 .7
A s p h a lt r o o f i n g ............................................
3 3 9 .9
3 4 0 .7
2 9 8 .4
4 1 3 .4
4 0 6 .7
3 9 9 .0
3 9 7 .0
3 9 3 .7
3 8 0 .4
3 7 4 .7
3 8 4 .0
r3 8 0 .0
1 3 -7
3 7 8 .1
3 8 3 .9
3 8 1 .9
G y p s u m p r o d u c ts
3 8 5 .7
2 5 6 .1
2 5 3 .9
2 5 5 .1
2 5 5 .0
2 5 3 .9
2 6 3 .1
2 6 7 .4
2 6 5 .9
2 7 1 .9
r2 7 5 .7
2 7 3 .5
2 7 6 .0
2 8 9 .2
295 7
3 5 6 .6
3 5 5 .8
3 5 4 .1
3 5 3 .5
3 5 1 .8
3 5 1 .7
3 5 1 .7
351 3
351 2
.......................................
1 3 -8
G la s s c o n t a in e r s
1 3 -9
O th e r h o n m e ta llic m in e r a ls
14
. . . .
...............................
..................
T r a n s p o r t a tio n e q u ip m e n t ( 1 2 /6 8 =
100) .
3 5 5 .5
3 5 8 .6
3 5 8 .5
3 5 7 .8
3 5 7 .6
4 7 1 .8
4 6 7 .7
4 7 0 .4
4 7 1 .3
4 7 1 .0
4 7 1 .5
4 7 6 .1
4 7 6 .4
4 7 8 .7
r4 7 8 .5
4 7 9 .4
4 8 0 .8
4 8 1 .5
4 8 2 .4
2 4 9 .7
2 4 4 .5
2 5 6 .0
2 5 6 .3
2 5 7 .5
2 5 6 .3
2 5 5 .8
2 5 5 .2
2 5 5 .6
r2 5 5 .8
2 5 6 .3
2 5 6 .4
257 0
250 3
248 9
1 4 -1
M o t o r v e h ic le s a n d e q u i p m e n t ..................
2 5 1 .3
2 4 4 .6
2 5 7 .8
2 5 7 .8
2 5 8 .1
2 5 7 .0
2 5 6 .3
2 5 5 .4
2 5 5 .9
1 4 -4
2 5 6 .2
2 5 6 .6
2 5 6 .7
R a ilr o a d e q u i p m e n t ..........................
2 5 6 .9
3 4 6 .5
3 4 8 .0
3 5 0 .8
3 5 0 .8
3 5 0 .8
3 5 0 .8
3 5 0 .5
3 5 0 .3
3 5 0 .0
r3 5 0 .4
3 5 6 .8
3 5 8 .1
3 5 7 .8
3 5 7 .5
2 7 6 .4
2 7 9 .5
2 8 5 .4
2 8 5 .2
2 9 0 .4
2 8 5 .7
2 8 8 .8
2 8 7 .4
2 8 7 .4
2 8 7 .1
2 8 8 .0
2 9 1 .7
291 5
291 3
15
M is c e lla n e o u s p r o d u c t s . .
1 5 -1
T o y s , s p o r tin g g o o d s , s m a ll a r m s , a m m u n i t i o n ......................
2 2 1 .5
2 2 1 .8
1 5 -2
2 2 6 .3
T o b a c c o p r o d u c ts
r2 2 6 .0
3 2 3 .1
3 2 9 .1
3 6 5 .4
3 6 4 .5
3 8 2 .9
3 5 6 .2
3 5 6 .4
1 5 -3
3 5 3 .8
3 5 4 .1
N o t i o n s ........................................
r3 5 3 .8
3 5 2 .2
3 7 3 .5
3 7 3 .3
376 5
2 7 7 .0
2 8 0 .1
2 8 0 .1
2 7 9 .8
2 7 9 .8
2 8 0 .5
2 8 0 .6
2 8 0 .6
2 8 0 .3
2 8 0 .3
2 8 0 .3
280 3
279 7
279 7
216 9
..........................
1 5 -4
P h o t o g r a h ic e q u ip m e n t a n d s u p p lie s
1 5 -5
M o b ile h o m e s ( 1 2 /7 4 =
.1 5 -9
. .
100) .
O t h e r m i s c e lla n e o u s p r o d u c ts
. . .
2 1 0 .4
2 0 9 .9
2 2 1 .2
2 0 9 .7
3 In c lu d e s o n ly d o m e s tic p r o d u c tio n .
108
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
2 0 9 .7
2 2 3 .7
2 1 0 .0
2 2 2 .7
2 1 0 .0
2 2 5 .3
2 1 1 .8
2 2 5 .7
2 1 6 .6
2 2 6 .4
2 2 4 .8
225 0
2 1 6 .6
r2 1 6 .6
2 1 6 .8
216 8
216 9
1 6 1 .9
1 6 2 .9
1 6 2 .6
1 6 1 .6
1 6 1 .7
1 6 1 .8
1 6 1 .7
1 6 2 .9
1 6 2 .3
r 1 6 2 .4
163 0
163 4
163 6
3 3 8 .3
3 4 5 .2
3 4 5 .2
3 4 5 .1
3 5 1 .6
3 5 0 .8
3 5 9 .8
3 5 0 .5
3 5 0 .3
r3 4 9 .2
3 5 2 .7
3 5 3 .5
3 5 2 .3
1 D a t a f o r M a y 1 9 8 3 h a v e b e e n r e v is e d t o r e fle c t th e a v a ila b ilit y o f la te r e p o r t s a n d c o r r e c t io n s b y r e s p o n d e n ts .
A ll d a ta a r e s u b je c t t o r e v is io n 4 m o n th s a f te r o r ig in a l p u b lic a tio n .
i P r ic e s f o r n a t u r a l g a s a r e la g g e d 1 m o n th .
2 2 1 .3
4 M o s t p r ic e s f o r r e fin e d p e t r o le u m p r o d u c ts a r e la g q e d 1 m o n th .
5 S o m e p r ic e s f o r in d u s t r ia l c h e m ic a ls a r e la g g e d 1 m o n th
r = r e v js e (j
225 3
3 4 9 .0
25.
P roducer Price Indexes, fo r special com m odity groupings
[ 1 9 6 7 = 1 0 0 u n le s s o t h e r w i s e s p e c if ie d ]
1983
1982
Annual
averag e
C o m m o d ity grouping
198 2
Oct.
Sept.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan .
Feb.
M a r.
Apr.
M ay1
June
July
Aug.
S e p t.
3 0 8 .4
All c o m m o d itie s — le s s fa rm products
3 0 3 .0
3 0 3 .7
3 0 4 .7
3 0 5 .1
3 0 5 .4
3 0 4 .4
3 0 4 .9
3 0 4 .5
3 0 3 .8
'3 0 4 . 8
3 0 6 .1
307 1
3 0 8 .2
A ll foods
2 5 4 .4
2 5 5 .3
2 5 2 .8
251 9
2 5 2 .7
2 5 2 .4
2 5 5 .7
2 5 5 .8
2 5 8 .2
2 5 8 .2
2 5 6 .5
2 5 6 .4
2 5 7 .5
2 6 1 .0
P ro c e s s e d foods
2 5 6 .0
2 5 9 .2
2 5 6 .2
2 5 4 .7
2 5 4 .7
2 5 5 .8
2 5 9 .3
2 5 8 .9
2 5 9 .5
2 5 9 .6
2 5 7 .8
2 5 8 .0
2 5 8 .1
2 6 1 .3
2 7 4 .4
2 7 4 .4
2 7 4 .9
2 7 5 .4
2 7 9 .8
2 7 2 .8
2 7 2 .5
2 7 7 .0
2 7 6 .9
2 7 7 .6
'2 7 8 . 2
2 7 8 .6
2 7 9 .5
2 8 0 .4
1 0 0 ) ...............................
1 3 8 .2
1 3 7 .8
1 3 7 .4
1 3 7 .1
136 8
1 3 6 .7
1 3 6 .8
1 3 7 .2
1 3 7 .4
r 13 7 .7
1 3 7 .2
1 3 7 .7
1 3 8 .8
138 7
....................................................................................................................................
1 3 8 .3
1 3 8 .7
1 3 8 .7
1 3 9 .7
1 3 9 .7
1 4 1 .7
1 4 4 .5
1 4 4 .5
1 4 4 .5
1 4 4 ,5
1 4 4 .5
1 4 4 .5
1 4 5 .6
1 4 5 .6
2 1 7 .6
2 1 9 .6
2 2 0 .1
2 1 9 .7
2 1 9 .7
223 3
2 2 2 .6
2 2 3 .8
2 2 3 .4
'2 2 3 . 5
2 2 3 .1
223 2
2 2 3 .5
224 4
2 8 1 .4
2 8 0 .8
2 8 1 .4
2 8 0 .7
2 8 1 .8
r 2 8 1 .6
2 8 2 .0
2 8 2 .5
2 8 5 .5
2 8 5 .0
I n d u s tr ia l c o m m o d it ie s le s s f u e l s ......................................................................
S e le c te d t e x t ile m i ll p r o d u c ts ( D e c . 1 9 7 5 =
H o s ie r y
U n d e r w e a r a n d n ig h tw e a r
........................................................................................
C h e m ic a ls a n d a llie d p r o d u c ts , in c lu d in g s y n th e t ic r u b b e r
a n d f ib e r s a n d y a r n s ................................................................................................
2 8 3 .8
282 5
2 8 1 .8
2 8 2 .3
P h a r m a c e u t ic a l p r e p a r a t i o n s ...................................................................................
2 0 6 .0
2 0 9 .0
2 1 1 .7
2 1 2 .3
2 1 2 .8
2 1 5 .8
2 1 9 .4
2 2 0 .3
2 2 3 .3
'2 2 3 . 5
2 2 3 .9
2 2 6 .0
2 2 6 .6
227 2
L u m b e r a n d w o o d p r o d u c ts , e x c lu d in g m i l l w o r k ...................................
2 8 8 .8
2 8 7 .2
2 8 2 .5
283 4
2 8 9 .6
3 0 0 .7
3 1 4 .3
3 1 7 .2
3 2 0 .8
'3 2 4 . 3
3 3 7 .0
337 6
331 0
3 1 7 .6
3 4 9 .1
3 4 8 .5
3 4 4 .8
3 4 3 .1
3 4 9 .9
3 4 8 .4
3 4 8 .4
'3 4 8 . 5
3 4 7 .7
3 4 8 .4
3 4 9 .8
3 5 5 .4
.................
3 4 9 .4
3 4 7 .8
...........................................................................................................................
3 4 8 .4
3 4 6 .9
3 4 8 .6
3 4 8 .0 -
3 4 4 .0
3 4 2 .1
3 4 9 .8
3 4 8 .3
3 4 8 .4
'3 4 8 . 5
3 4 7 .7
3 4 8 .5
3 5 0 .1
3 5 6 .7
3 4 6 .3
3 4 7 .8
3 4 7 .2
3 4 3 .3
3 4 1 .6
3 4 8 .5
3 4 7 .0
3 4 7 .0
'3 4 7 . 1
3 4 6 .4
3 4 7 .0
3 4 8 .4
354 4
S te e l m i ll p r o d u c t s , in c lu d in g fa b r ic a te d w ir e p r o d u c ts
F in is h e d s te e l m i ll p r o d u c ts , e x c lu d in g fa b r ic a te d w ir e
p ro d u c ts
F in is h e d s te e l m ill p r o d u c t s , in c lu d in g fa b r ic a te d w ir e
p ro d u c ts
...........................................................................................................................
3 4 8 .1
. . . . ' ................................................
2 8 6 .6
2 8 4 .0
2 8 9 .5
2 8 8 .9
2 8 8 .7
2 8 8 .6
2 9 0 .9
2 9 0 .3
2 9 0 .7
'2 9 1 . 7
2 9 2 .1
2 9 2 .7
2 9 3 .5
2 9 1 .5
F a b r ic a te d m e ta l p r o d u c t s ........................................................................................
2 9 1 .6
2 9 2 .9
2 9 3 .0
2 9 2 .5
2 9 2 .5
2 9 1 .1
2 9 1 .3
2 9 2 .3
2 9 2 .2
'2 9 2 . 6
2 9 5 .2
2 9 5 .5
2 9 5 .9
2 9 6 .2
1 8 1 .2
1 8 1 .8
1 9 0 .7
2 0 1 .5
1 9 8 .9
2 0 0 .9
2 0 6 .7
2 0 1 .5
2 0 2 .2
2 0 1 .2
1 9 8 .0
S p e c ia l m e ta ls a n d m e ta l p r o d u c ts
C o p p e r a n d c o p p e r p r o d u c t s ...................................................................................
1 8 5 .5
1 8 1 .0
1 7 8 .8
M a c h in e r y a n d m o tiv e p r o d u c t s ...........................................................................
2 7 2 .1
2 7 0 .7
2 7 6 .4
2 7 7 .0
2 7 7 .9
2 7 7 .8
2 7 8 .2
2 7 8 .1
2 7 8 .7
'2 7 9 . 2
2 7 9 .3
2 7 9 .9
2 8 0 .3
2 7 7 .5
M a c h in e r y a n d e q u ip m e n t , e x c e p t e le c t r ic a l
............................................
3 0 6 .4
3 0 8 .6
3 0 9 .4
3 1 0 .0
3 1 0 .6
3 1 1 .3
3 1 1 .9
3 1 2 .2
3 1 2 .9
'3 1 3 . 8
3 1 3 .7
3 1 3 .9
3 1 4 .1
3 1 4 .2
................................................
3 2 3 .1
3 2 5 .5
3 3 0 .6
332 2
3 3 5 .1
3 3 7 .0
3 3 7 .7
3 3 7 .8
3 3 8 .2
'3 4 1 .7
3 4 0 .4
3 4 1 .4
3 4 2 .4
3 4 3 .5
M e ta lw o r k in g m a c h i n e r y ............................................................................................
3 5 0 .4
3 5 3 .5
3 5 4 .1
3 5 4 .2
3 5 4 .1
3 5 4 .6
3 5 5 .7
3 5 5 .6
3 5 6 .3
3 5 8 .0
3 5 7 .7
3 5 7 .7
3 5 7 .6
3 5 7 .3
T o ta l t r a c t o r s .......................................................................................................................
3 5 5 .0
3 5 9 .6
3 6 1 .4
3 6 1 .4
3 6 4 .2
3 6 5 .6
3 6 5 .6
3 6 5 .7
3 6 6 .1
3 7 0 .5
3 7 0 .6
3 7 0 .7
3 6 9 .9
3 7 2 .5
A g r ic u l t u r a l m a c h in e r y a n d e q u ip m e n t le s s p a r t s ...................................
3 1 3 .8
3 1 5 .8
3 2 0 .1
3 2 1 .5
3 2 4 .3
3 2 5 .9
3 2 6 .6
3 2 6 .8
3 2 7 .1
'3 3 0 . 1
3 2 9 .0
3 2 9 .8
3 3 0 .9
332 0
F a r m a n d g a r d e n t r a c t o r s le s s p a r ts
.............................................................
3 2 7 .8
3 3 3 .0
3 3 6 .1
3 3 6 .1
3 4 0 .3
3 4 2 .2
3 4 2 .2
3 4 2 .2
3 4 2 .2
3 4 8 .8
3 4 8 .8
3 4 8 .8
3 4 7 .6
3 5 0 .6
......................
3 1 9 .6
3 1 9 .6
3 2 6 .4
3 2 9 .3
3 3 1 .1
3 3 3 .1
3 3 4 .4
3 3 4 .5
3 3 5 .2
'3 3 6 . 2
3 3 3 .8
3 3 5 .6
3 3 8 .4
3 3 7 .9
C o n s t r u c t io n m a t e r i a l s .................................................................................................
2 8 8 .0
2 8 8 .4
2 8 8 .0
2 8 7 .8
2 8 7 .9
2 9 0 .3
2 9 4 .6
2 9 5 .0
2 9 6 .1
'2 9 6 . 8
2 9 7 .7
2 9 9 .1
2 9 9 .8
299 8
Feb.
M a r.
Apr.
M ay1
June
July
Aug.
A g r ic u l t u r a l m a c h in e r y , in c lu d in g t r a c t o r s
A g r ic u l t u r a l m a c h in e r y , e x c lu d in g t r a c t o r s le s s p a r ts
' D a t a f o r M a y 1 9 8 3 h a v e b e e n r e v is e d t o r e fle c t t h e a v a ila b ilit y o f la te r e p o r t s a n d c o r r e c t io n s b y
r =
r e v is e d ,
r e s p o n d e n ts . A ll d a ta a r e s u b je c t t o r e v is io n 4 m o n th s a f te r o r ig in a l p u b lic a tio n .
26.
P roducer Price Indexes, by durability of product
[ 1 9 6 7 = 1 00 ]
Annual
C o m m o d ity grouping
1 982
T o ta l d u r a b le g o o d s
.....................................................................................................
T o ta l n o n d u r a b le g o o d s
............................................................................................
T o ta l m a n u f a c t u r e s ................................................................................................
D u r a b le
.......................................................................................................................
N o n d u r a b le
..............................................................................................................
T o ta l r a w o r s li g h t l y p r o c e s s e d g o o d s
D u r a b le
...............................
.......................................................................................................................
N o n d u r a b le
..............................................................................................................
1 982
1983
a verag e
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D ec.
Jan.
S e pt.
2 7 9 .0
2 7 8 .6
2 8 1 .2
2 8 1 .2
2 8 2 .0
282 6
2 8 4 .8
2 8 4 .6
2 8 5 .3
'2 8 6 . 0
2 8 6 .4
2 8 7 .3
2 8 7 .8
286 7
3 1 5 .3
3 1 5 .7
3 1 4 .3
3 1 5 .3
3 1 5 .3
3 1 3 .3
3 1 3 .4
3 1 3 .0
3 1 2 .4
'3 1 3 . 5
3 1 5 .0
3 1 5 .5
318 2
3 1 9 .9
2 9 2 .7
292 9
2 9 3 .8
293 9
2 9 4 .3
2 9 3 .5
293 9
2 9 3 .2
2 9 2 .7
'2 9 3 . 7
2 9 5 .1
2 9 6 .1
2 9 7 .1
2 9 7 .3
2 7 9 .8
2 7 9 .5
282 3
2 8 2 .4
283 2
2 8 3 .7
285 7
285 3
2 8 6 .0
'2 8 6 . 7
2 8 7 .0
2 8 7 .9
2 8 8 .3
2 8 7 .1
3 0 6 .0
3 0 6 .1
3 0 5 .9
3 0 3 .8
3 0 2 .5
3 0 1 .4
2 9 9 .7
'3 0 1 . 0
3 0 3 .6
3 0 4 .7
3 0 6 .4
3 0 8 .1
3 2 7 .9
3 3 0 .9
3 3 1 .6
3 3 0 .4
335 2
3 3 7 .3
3 4 0 .4
'3 4 0 .9
339 3
3 3 8 .3
3 4 3 .7
3 4 6 .0
3 0 6 .4
3 0 7 .1
3 3 1 .2
3 2 9 .9
2 3 3 .8
2 2 6 .2
2 2 4 .2
2 1 9 .2
2 1 7 .4
224 2
2 3 5 .4
2 4 3 .3
2 4 4 .1
'2 4 6 . 1
2 5 0 .2
2 5 0 .7
2 5 7 .6
2 6 1 .5
3 3 7 .3
3 3 6 .5
3 3 4 .5
3 3 8 .1
3 3 9 .0
337 2
3 4 1 .5
3 4 3 .2
3 4 6 .5
'3 4 6 .8
3 4 4 .8
3 4 3 .7
3 4 8 .9
3 5 1 .1
'D a t a f o r M a y 1 9 8 3 h a v e b e e n r e v is e d t o r e fle c t th e a v a ila b ilit y o f la te r e p o r t s a n d c o r r e c t io n s b y
r=
r e v is e d ,
r e s p o n d e n ts . A ll d a ta a r e s u b je c t t o r e v is io n 4 m o n th s a f te r o r ig in a l p u b lic a tio n .
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
109
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • Current Labor Statistics: Producer Prices
27.
P roducer Price Indexes for the output of selected SIC industries
[1967 = 100 unless otherwise specified]
1972
Annual
SIC
Industry d escrip tion
1982
a verag e
code
1982
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D ec.
Jan.
Feb.
M a r .1
Apr.
M ay1
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
M IN IN G
1011
Iro n o re s ( 1 2 /7 5 =
1 0 0 ) ..................................................................
1092
M e rc u ry o re s ( 1 2 /7 5 =
1311
C r u d e p e t r o le u m a n d n a t u r a l g a s
1455
K a o lin a n d b a ll c la y ( 6 /7 6 =
100)
.....................................................
............................................
1 0 0 ) ...............................
1 7 5 .2
1 7 7 .1
1 7 7 .1
1 7 7 .1
1 7 7 .1
1 7 7 .1
1 7 7 .1
1 7 7 .1
1 7 7 .1
1 7 7 .1
1 7 7 .1
1 7 7 .1
1 7 7 .1
3 1 2 .2
2 8 9 .5
3 1 2 .5
3 0 8 .3
3 1 2 .5
3 0 6 .2
2 8 9 .5
2 8 5 .4
2 7 2 .9
2 6 8 .7
2 5 4 .1
2 3 7 .5
2 3 1 .2
2 4 3 .3
9 2 5 .8
9 3 7 .6
9 4 5 .9
9 6 9 .0
9 5 8 .4
1 7 7 .1
9 4 5 .2
9 3 1 .2
9 3 4 .4
9 2 2 .1
r9 2 1 8
9 2 5 .0
9 1 7 .4
9 1 6 .6
920 8
151 2
151 7
15 1 7
151 7
1 5 1 .7
1 5 3 .6
1 5 6 .3
1 5 8 .4
1 6 4 .3
1 6 4 .3
1 6 4 .3
1 6 4 .3
1 6 4 .3
1 6 4 .3
2 7 5 .6
2 7 5 .6
2 7 5 .6
M A N U FA C TU R IN G
C r e a m e r y b u t t e r ..................................................................
2 7 6 .0
2 7 6 .8
2 7 6 .8
2 7 6 .5
2 7 7 .8
2 7 5 .5
2 7 5 .6
2 7 5 .6
2 7 5 .6
2 7 6 .1
2 7 8 .4
2044
R ic e m i ll in g
......................................................................
1 8 5 .1
1 8 3 .0
1 8 3 .0
1 7 5 .2
1 9 6 .1
1 9 1 .3
1 8 3 .0
1 8 3 .0
1 8 8 .9
1 9 1 .3
1 9 4 .5
1 9 3 .7
1 9 8 .1
2067
2021
201.1
C h e w in g g u m ..................................................................
3 0 4 .1
3 0 4 .7
3 0 4 .8
3 0 6 .0
3 0 6 .1
3 2 6 .0
3 2 6 .0
3 2 6 .1
3 2 6 .1
3 2 6 .1
3 2 7 .2
3 2 7 .2
3 2 7 .3
3 2 7 .3
2074
C o tto n s e e d o il m i l l s .........................................................
2083
M a lt
2091
C a n n e d a n d c u r e d s e a fo o d s ( 1 2 /7 3 =
.........................................................
2098
M a c a r o n i a n d s p a g h e t t i ..................................................................
100)
2251
W o m e n 's h o s ie r y , e x c e p t s o c k s ( 1 2 / 7 5 =
2261
F in is h in g p la n ts , c o tt o n ( 6 / 7 6 =
2262
F in is h in g p la n ts , s y n th e t ic s , s ilk ( 6 /7 6 =
2284
T h r e a d m i ll s ( 6 / 7 6 =
2298
C o r d a g e a n d t w in e ( 1 2 / 7 7 =
2323
M e n ’ s a n d b o y s ' n e c k w e a r ( 1 2 /7 5 =
2361
C h ild r e n ’ s d r e s s e s a n d b lo u s e s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
2381
F a b r ic d r e s s a n d w o r k g lo v e s
2394
. .
100)
1 8 2 .8
1 7 9 .2
1 7 7 .9
1 7 7 .7
1 7 5 .7
1 7 3 .4
1 7 3 .7
1 6 9 .4
1 6 9 .8
2 5 8 .5
2 5 9 .5
2 5 5 .5
2 5 5 .5
2 5 5 .5
2 5 5 .5
2 5 5 .5
2 5 5 .5
2 5 5 .5
2 5 5 .5
2 5 5 .5
2 5 5 .5
2 5 5 .5
2 5 5 .5
1 1 6 .8
1 1 6 .9
1 2 2 .7
r122.7
122.8
1 2 2 .9
1 2 3 .0
1 3 6 .1
1 3 9 .8
'1 3 8 . 0
1 3 2 .9
1 3 2 .6
1 3 3 .8
1 3 3 .5
1 2 7 .8
1 2 7 .3
1 2 5 .7
1 2 6 .7
1 2 6 .2
1 2 7 .2
'1 2 6 . 9
1 2 5 .8
1 2 5 .1
1 2 7 .2
1 2 5 .8
1 5 7 .2
1 5 8 .0
1 5 7 .9
1 5 7 .9
1 5 7 .8
1 5 7 .9
1 6 1 .9
1 6 5 .6
1 6 5 .7
1 6 5 .7
1 6 5 .7
1 6 5 .7
1 6 5 .7
..................
1 6 6 .1
1 4 1 .5
1 4 2 .6
1 4 2 .6
1 4 2 .6
1 4 2 .6
1 4 2 .6
1 4 2 .7
1 4 2 .8
1 3 7 .6
1 3 7 .6
1 3 7 .6
1 3 7 .6
1 3 7 .6
1 3 9 .0
100)
1 1 9 .5
1 2 1 .3
1 2 1 .3
1 2 1 .3
1 2 1 .3
1 2 1 .3
1 2 1 .3
1 2 1 .3
1 2 1 .3
1 2 1 .3
1 2 1 .3
1 2 1 .3
1 2 1 .3
1 2 3 .5
100) . . .
100)
.
100)
. . . .
........................................
100)
.
. . .
100)
. .
1 2 3 .0
1 2 0 .6
1 1 8 .6
1 1 8 .6
1 1 7 .0
1 1 7 .0
1 1 7 .0
1 1 7 .0
1 1 5 .5
1 1 5 .5
1 1 5 .5
1 1 7 .0
1 1 7 .0
1 1 7 .0
2 9 2 .1
1 1 7 .0
2 8 8 .2
2 8 7 .4
2 8 7 .4
2 8 7 .4
2 8 8 .8
2 8 8 .8
2 8 8 .8
2 9 1 .0
2 9 1 .7
2 9 1 .7
2 9 6 .3
2 9 6 .3
2 9 6 .3
1 4 5 .4
1 4 4 .8
1 4 7 .3
1 4 7 .3
1 4 7 .3
1 4 8 .7
1 4 8 .7
1 4 6 .2
1 4 6 .2
'1 4 6 . 2
1 4 6 .8
1 4 6 .8
1 4 6 .8
1 4 6 .8
1 3 1 .0
1 3 1 .0
1 3 1 .0
1 3 1 .0
1 3 1 .0
1 3 1 .0
1 3 1 .0
1 3 1 .0
1 3 1 .0
1 3 1 .0
1 3 1 .0
1 3 1 .0
1 3 1 .0
1 4 5 .6
1 4 3 .8
1 4 4 .3
1 4 4 .2
1 4 4 .6
1 4 4 .6
1 4 5 .2
1 4 5 .7
1 4 6 .9
'1 4 8 . 5
1 4 9 .3
1 5 0 .8
1 5 1 .2
1 5 0 .9
2 7 0 .3
2 7 1 .3
2 7 1 .4
2 7 1 .4
2 7 1 .4
2 7 1 .4
2 7 3 .4
2 7 9 .6
2 8 2 .5
'2 8 2 . 5
2 8 3 .6
2 8 4 .7
2 8 4 .7
2 8 4 .7
2 6 6 .7
2 6 8 .6
2 6 8 .7
2 6 9 .3
2 5 9 .7
100)
..................
B r ic k a n d s t r u c t u r a l c la y t i l e ...................................
2 6 0 .8
2 6 1 .7
1 3 1 .0
2 6 1 .7
2 6 1 .7
2 6 1 .7
2 6 1 .7
2 6 5 .1
265 2
'2 6 5 . 2
. 1 7 7 .8
1 7 7 .5
1 7 7 .9
1 8 0 .7
1 8 3 .8
1 8 3 .8
1 8 3 .8
1 8 3 .8
1 8 5 .6
'1 8 5 . 6
1 8 5 .9
1 8 7 .7
1 8 7 .7
1 8 7 .7
2 7 8 .3
2 7 9 .6
2 7 8 .3
2 8 0 .1
2 7 8 .3
2 6 7 .2
2 5 7 .4
2 5 0 .4
2 4 0 .6
'2 4 6 . 0
2 5 4 .9
2 5 6 .3
2 5 8 .1
2 5 7 .8
1 7 3 .5
1 8 0 .4
1 7 7 .2
1 7 3 .7
1 7 2 .9
1 7 1 .4
1 6 5 .8
1 6 3 .2
1 6 6 .9
'1 6 5 . 1
1 6 4 .2
1 6 6 .8
1 6 5 .8
1 6 7 .4
3 0 7 .4
3 1 4 .0
3 1 4 .0
3 1 5 .5
3 1 5 .5
3 1 5 .7
3 1 5 .6
3 2 8 .3
3 3 2 .2
'3 3 3 . 8
3 3 5 .7
3 3 7 .5
3 3 7 .5
3 3 7 .5
1 4 0 .6
1 4 0 .7
1 4 0 .7
1 4 0 .7
1 4 0 .7
'1 4 2 . 4
1 4 6 .8
1 4 6 .8
1 4 6 .8
3 5 2 .8
3 5 6 .9
1 4 6 .8
3 5 7 .0
3 5 0 .3
3 5 0 .3
3 5 1 .1
3 5 1 .1
3 5 1 .2
3 5 2 .2
'3 5 2 . 2
3 5 0 .4
. . .
3 5 3 .0
3 5 5 .3
2 1 9 .7
3 5 6 .8
2 1 9 .0
2 1 9 .0
2 1 8 .9
2 1 9 .0
2 1 9 .0
2 1 5 .7
2 1 5 .7
2 3 2 .7
'2 3 4 . 7
2 3 4 .8
2 3 5 .4
2 3 5 .4
2 3 5 .5
V itr e o u s p lu m b in g f i x t u r e s ......................
2 6 5 .0
2 6 7 .2
2 6 9 .1
2 7 0 .3
2 6 9 .7
2 7 2 .1
2 7 3 .3
2 7 5 .1
2 7 5 .3
'2 7 6 . 1
2 7 6 .9
2 7 7 .2
2 7 7 .2
2 8 1 .3
3262
V itr e o u s c h in a f o o d u t e n s ils
3263
F in e e a r th e n w a r e f o o d u t e n s ils
3 6 0 .2
3 6 0 .8
3 7 0 .2
3 7 7 .7
3 8 0 .1
3 8 0 .1
3 8 0 .1
3 8 0 .1
'3 8 0 . 1
3 6 9 .2
3 6 9 .2
3 6 9 .2
3 6 9 .2
3 1 6 .9
3 2 3 .5
3 2 4 .8
3 2 6 .0
3 6 5 .7
3 6 5 .7
3 6 5 .7
3 6 5 .7
'3 6 5 . 9
3 6 4 .3
3 6 4 .3
3 6 4 .3
3 6 4 .3
1 6 7 .3
1 6 7 .4
1 6 9 .6
1 7 1 .9
1 7 3 .7
1 8 6 .5
1 8 6 .6
1 8 6 .6
1 8 6 .6
'1 8 6 . 6
1 8 3 .8
1 8 3 .8
1 8 3 .8
1 8 3 .8
1 8 6 .3
1 8 7 .8
1 8 7 .7
1 8 7 .5
1 8 5 .7
1 8 7 .3
1 8 5 .5
1 8 5 .1
1 8 7 .8
'1 8 5 .2
1 8 6 .5
1 8 7 .3
1 8 7 .9
1 8 6 .6
2 0 1 .8
2 0 3 .8
2 0 3 .8
2 0 3 .7
2 0 3 .6
2 0 3 .7
2 0 3 .6
2 0 3 .6
2 0 3 .8
'2 0 3 . 6
2 0 3 .7
2 0 3 .8
2 0 3 .8
2 0 3 .8
100)
.
100)
S m a ll a r m s a m m u n it io n ( 1 2 /7 5 =
W e ld in g a p p a r a tu s , e le c t r ic ( 1 2 /7 2 =
100) .
3636
S e w in g m a c h in e s ( 1 2 /7 5 =
3641
E le c tr ic l a m p s ...............................
3648
L ig h tin g e q u ip m e n t , n . e . c . ( 1 2 / 7 5 =
100)
3671
E le c tr o n tu b e s , r e c e iv in g t y p e
D o lls ( 1 2 / 7 5 =
100)
.
. . . .
G a m e s , t o y s , a n d c h il d r e n 's v e h ic le s
3955
C a r b o n p a p e r a n d In k e d r ib b o n s ( 1 2 /7 5
3995
B u r ia l c a s k e ts ( 6 / 7 6 =
. . . .
=
100)
.
H a r d s u r fa c e f lo o r c o v e r in g s ( 1 2 /7 5 =
1 6 4 .2
1 4 9 .0
1 5 0 .1
1 5 0 .6
1 7 4 .1
1 7 5 .1
1 7 5 .1
1 8 1 .6
1 8 1 .6
'1 8 1 . 6
1 8 7 .6
1 8 7 .6
2 3 9 .6
1 8 7 .6
1 8 7 .6
2 4 2 .8
2 4 3 .0
2 4 3 .3
2 4 3 .3
2 4 3 .6
2 4 4 .0
2 4 3 .4
2 4 3 .3
'2 4 3 . 1
2 3 7 .3
2 3 8 .4
2 3 8 .4
2 3 8 .5
1 5 4 .6
100)
1 0 0 ) ..........................
100)
100)
. . .
1 5 3 .6
1 5 4 .2
1 5 4 .2
1 5 4 .2
1 5 4 .2
1 5 4 .4
1 5 5 .0
1 5 6 .8
'1 5 6 . 8
1 5 6 .1
1 5 6 .1
2 9 4 .0
1 5 6 .1
2 9 6 .3
1 5 6 .1
3 0 2 .9
3 0 3 .0
3 0 3 .4
3 0 6 .0
3 1 1 .5
3 1 1 .4
3 1 3 .8
3 1 3 .8
3 1 6 .7
3 1 9 .4
1 7 0 .0
3 1 9 .8
3 3 2 .4
1 7 1 .2
1 7 1 .3
1 7 1 .3
1 7 1 .4
1 7 1 .4
1 7 1 .5
171 6
1 7 2 .6
1 7 2 .6
1 7 3 .1
1 7 3 .4
1 7 3 .4
3 8 2 .1
3 8 0 .2
1 7 3 .6
3 8 0 .3
4 1 4 .0
4 1 4 .1
4 3 1 .6
4 3 2 .0
431 9
4 3 2 .1
'4 3 2 . 1
4 3 2 .2
4 3 2 .4
1 3 6 .7
4 3 2 .4
1 3 6 .8
4 3 2 .6
1 3 6 .8
1 3 6 .8
1 3 6 .5
1 3 7 .1
1 3 6 .8
1 3 6 .8
1 3 7 .7
'1 3 7 . 7
1 3 7 .4
1 3 7 .3
1 3 7 .3
1 3 7 .3
2 3 4 .0
2 3 4 .8
2 3 5 .3
2 3 5 .3
2 3 5 .5
2 3 5 .3
2 4 3 .4
241 8
2 4 2 .2
'2 4 2 . 2
232.1
2 3 7 .9
2 3 1 .9
1 4 0 .0
2 3 1 .9
1 3 9 .3
1 3 9 .3
1 3 9 .2
1 3 9 .4
1 3 9 .2
1 3 9 .2
139 2
1 3 9 .2
1 3 9 .2
1 3 9 .2
1 3 9 .2
1 5 0 .8
1 5 0 .8
1 5 0 .8
1 5 0 .8
1 4 7 .0
1 5 2 .1
152 1
152.1
1 3 9 .2
1 4 8 .4
1 5 2 .1
1 5 2 .1
1 5 5 .4
1 5 5 .4
1 5 5 .9
1 5 6 .9
1 5 5 .4
1 5 8 .9
1 5 8 .9
1 5 6 .8
1 5 9 .2
1 5 9 .2
1 5 9 .2
1 5 9 .7
'1 5 9 . 6
1 5 9 .4
1 6 2 .0
1 6 3 .4
1 6 3 .5
iv io iiov i m e a v aiia u m iy u i idle repi
r e s p o n d e n ts . A ll d a ta a r e s u b je c t t o r e v is io n 4 m o n th s a f te r o r ig in a l p u b lic a tio n .
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
1 3 9 .2
N O TE : I n d e x e s w h ic h w e r e d e le te d in t h e S e p t e m b e r is s u e m a y n o w b e f o u n d in T a b le 4 o f t h e B L S
m o n th ly r e p o r t , P r o d u c e r P r ic e s a n d P r ic e In d e x e s .
r = r e v is e d .
110
1 4 0 .7
3 5 7 .8
3482
3942
1 4 0 .7
3 1 8 .2
1 0 0 ) ...........................
N o n c la y r e fr a c to r ie s ( 1 2 /7 4 =
1 4 0 .7
. .
P o t te r y p r o d u c t s , n . e . c . ( 1 2 /7 5 =
L im e ( 1 2 / 7 5 =
1 4 0 .7
. . .
3623
3996
1 8 6 .6
1 2 2 .7
3251
3944
1 8 6 .4
1 3 6 .0
A s p h a lt f e lt s a n d c o a t in g ( 1 2 /7 5 =
3297
232 6
1 8 6 .3
1 2 2 .6
2952
3274
2 6 5 .6
2 3 2 .6
1 8 6 .2
1 3 5 .3
F ib e r c a n s , d r u m s , a n d s im ila r p r o d u c ts ( 1 2 /7 5 =
3269
220.6
2 3 2 .6
1 8 7 .0
1 1 8 .5
P e t r o le u m r e fin in g ( 6 /7 6 =
3261
1 9 2 .4
2 3 2 .6
1 3 6 .1
2655
S t r u c t u r a l c la y p r o d u c ts , n . e . c .
1 7 9 .2
2 3 2 .6
1 1 8 .3
2911
C e r a m ic w a ll a n d f lo o r t ile ( 1 2 /7 5 =
r186.2
2 3 2 .6
1 3 6 .2
W o o d o ffic e f u r n i t u r e ............................................
C la y r e f r a c t o r i e s ...................................
1 8 6 .8
2 3 2 .6
1 1 8 .5
100)
3259
1 6 7 .1
2 3 2 .6
1 3 6 .8
A u t o m o t iv e a n d a p p a r e l t r im m i n g s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
3253
1 7 3 .4
2 3 2 .6
1 2 7 .5
W o o d p a lle ts a n d s k id s ( 1 2 / 7 5 =
3255
1 5 7 .5
2 4 0 .6
1 1 6 .9
..........................
100)
1 6 9 .4
2 4 0 .6
1 3 8 .5
C a n v a s a n d r e la te d p r o d u c t s ( 1 2 /7 7 =
S a n ita r y f o o d c o n t a in e r s
'1 6 4 . 1
1 2 8 .2
100) . . .
2396
2654
1 5 7 .6
2 5 1 .2
1 3 9 .5
......................
1 0 0 ) ......................
100)
1 6 4 .4
2 5 1 .2
1 2 8 .2
100)
2448
2521
. . .
1 6 8 .3
2 5 6 .9
PRODUCTIVITY DATA
P
are compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics
from establishment data and from estimates of compensation and
output supplied by the U.S. Department of Commerce and the
Federal Reserve Board.
r
o
d u
c t i v i t y
d
a t a
the components of unit nonlabor payments except unit profits. Unit profits
include corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustments per unit of
output.
The implicit price deflator is derived by dividing the current dollar
estimate of gross product by the constant dollar estimate, making the
Definitions
deflator, in effect, a price index for gross product of the sector reported.
Output is the constant dollar gross domestic product produced in a given
period. Indexes o f output per hour of labor input, or labor productivity,
measure the value o f goods and services produced per hour of labor.
Compensation per hour includes wages and salaries of employees plus
employers’ contributions for social insurance and private benefit plants.
Hours of all persons describes the labor input of payroll workers, selfemployed persons, and unpaid family workers. Output per all employee
hour describes labor productivity in nonfinancial corporations where there
are no self-employed.
The data also include an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplementary
payments for the self-employed, except for nonfinancial corporations, in
which there are no self-employed. Real compensation per hour is com
pensation per hour adjusted by the Consumer Price Index for All Urban
Consumers.
Unit labor cost measures the labor compensation cost required to pro
duce one unit of output and is derived by dividing compensation by output.
Unit nonlabor payments include profits, depreciation, interest, and in
direct taxes per unit o f output. They are computed by subtracting com
pensation o f all persons from the current dollar gross domestic product
and dividing by output. In these tables, unit nonlabor costs contain all
28.
Notes on the data
In the business sector and the nonfarm business sector, the basis for the
output measure employed in the computation of output per hour is Gross
Domestic Product rather than Gross National Product. Computation of
hours includes estimates of nonfarm and farm proprietor hours.
Output data are supplied by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S.
Department of Commerce, and the Federal Reserve Board. Quarterly man
ufacturing output indexes are adjusted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics
to annual estimates of output (gross product originating) from the Bureau
of Economic Analysis. Compensation and hours data are from the Bureau
of Economic Analysis and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
A nnual indexes of productivity, hourly com pensation, unit costs, and prices, selected years, 1 9 5 0 -8 2
(1 9 7 7 = 1 0 0 )
Ite m
195 0
195 5
1960
1 965
1970
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
B u s in e s s s e c to r :
O u t p u t p e r h o u r o f a ll p e r s o n s ........................................
5 0 .4
5 8 .3
6 5 .2
7 8 .3
86 2
9 4 .5
9 7 .6
1 0 0 .6
9 9 .4
9 8 .9
1 0 1 .3
1 0 1 .2
C o m p e n s a tio n p e r h o u r .........................................................
2 0 .0
2 6 .4
3 3 .9
4 1 .7
5 8 .2
8 5 .5
9 2 .9
1 0 0 .0
1 0 8 .6
1 1 8 .7
1 3 1 .2
1 4 3 .9
1 5 5 .1
R e a l c o m p e n s a tio n p e r h o u r
5 0 .5
5 9 .6
6 9 .5
8 0 .1
9 0 .8
9 6 .3
9 8 .9
1 0 0 .0
1 0 0 .9
9 9 .1
9 6 .5
95 9
9 7 .4
............................................
1 0 0 .0
U n it la b o r c o s t s ...........................................................................
3 9 .8
4 5 .2
5 2 .1
5 3 .3
6 7 .5
9 0 .5
9 5 .1
1 0 0 .0
1 0 8 .0
1 1 9 .5
1 3 2 .7
1 4 2 .1
1 5 3 .3
U n it n o n la b o r p a y m e n t s .........................................................
4 3 .4
4 7 .6
5 0 .6
5 7 .6
6 3 .2
9 0 .4
9 4 .0
1 0 0 .0
1 0 6 .7
1 1 2 .8
119 0
1 3 6 .2
1 3 6 .9
I m p li c it p r ic e d e f l a t o r .............................................................
4 1 .0
4 6 .0
5 1 .6
5 4 .7
6 6 .0
9 0 .4
9 4 .7
1 0 0 .0
1 0 7 .5
1 1 7 .2
128 1
1 4 0 .1
1 4 7 .7
9 4 .7
9 7 .8
1 0 0 .0
1 0 0 .2
N o n f a r m b u s in e s s s e c to r :
O u t p u t p e r h o u r o f a ll p e r s o n s ........................................
6 2 .7
6 8 .3
1 0 0 .6
9 9 .1
9 8 .4
1 0 0 .3
C o m p e n s a tio n p e r h o u r .........................................................
2 1 .8
2 8 .3
3 5 .7
4 2 .8
5 8 .7
8 6 .0
9 3 .0
1 0 0 .0
1 0 8 .6
1 1 8 .4
1 3 0 .7
1 4 3 .5
R e a l c o m p e n s a tio n p e r h o u r
............................................
5 6 .3
5 5 .0
6 4 .0
7 3 .0
8 2 .2
9 1 .5
9 6 .8
9 9 .0
1 0 0 .0
1 0 0 .9
9 8 .9
9 6 .1
9 5 .6
9 7 .1
U n it la b o r c o s t s ..........................................................................
3 8 .8
4 5 .1
5 2 .3
5 3 .2
6 7 .6
9 0 .8
9 5 .1
1 0 0 .0
1 0 8 .0
1 1 9 .5
1 3 2 .8
1 4 3 .0
1 5 4 .4
U n it n o n la b o r p a y m e n t s .........................................................
4 2 .7
4 7 .8
5 0 .4
5 8 .0
6 3 .8
8 8 .5
9 3 .5
1 0 0 .0
1 0 5 .3
1 1 0 .4
1 1 8 .5
1 3 5 .0
1 3 7 .0
I m p li c it p r ic e d e f l a t o r .............................................................
4 0 .1
4 6 .0
5 1 .6
5 4 .8
6 6 .3
9 0 .0
9 4 .6
1 0 0 .0
1 0 7 .1
1 1 6 .5
1 2 8 .1
1 4 0 ,4
1 4 8 .6
O u t p u t p e r h o u r o f a ll p e r s o n s ........................................
<1 )
<1 )
6 8 .0
8 1 .9
8 7 .4
9 5 .5
9 8 .2
1 0 0 .0
1 0 0 .9
1 0 0 .7
99 8
1 0 2 .3
1 0 2 .8
C o m p e n s a tio n p e r h o u r .........................................................
8 0 .5
.
8 6 .8
1 5 4 .7
N o n f in a n c ia l c o r p o r a t io n s :
<1 )
<1 )
5 9 .4
8 6 .1
1 0 0 .0
1 0 8 .5
............................................
(1)
(1>
7 5 .8
8 4 .3
9 2 .7
9 6 .9
9 8 .9
1 0 0 .0
1 0 0 .7
9 9 .1
96 3
9 5 .7
9 7 .2
U n it la b o r c o s t s ...........................................................................
(1)
I1)
5 4 .4
5 3 .5
6 8 .0
9 0 .2
9 4 .6
1 0 0 .0
1 0 7 .5
1 1 7 .8
1 3 1 .2
1 4 0 .3
150 6
U n it n o n la b o r p a y m e n t s .........................................................
<1 )
(1)
5 4 .6
60 8
6 3 .1
9 0 .8
9 5 .0
1 0 0 .0
1 0 4 .2
1 0 6 .9
1 1 7 .4
1 3 4 .4
1 3 7 .6
R e a l c o m p e n s a tio n p e r h o u r
I m p li c it p r ic e d e f l a t o r .............................................................
3 7 .0
4 3 .9
9 2 .9
1 1 8 .7
1 3 0 .9
1 4 3 .6
1 5 4 .8
<1 )
<1 )
5 4 .5
5 6 .1
6 6 .3
9 0 .4
9 4 .7
1 0 0 .0
1 0 6 .4
1 1 4 ,1
1 2 6 .4
1 3 8 .3
1 4 6 .1
4 9 .4
5 6 .4
6 0 .0
7 4 .5
7 9 .1
9 3 .4
9 7 .5
1 0 0 .0
1 0 0 .8
1 0 1 .5
1 0 1 .7
1 0 5 .3
1 0 6 .5
9 2 .3
1 0 0 .0
158 2
M a n u fa c t u r in g :
O u t p u t p e r h o u r o f a ll p e r s o n s ........................................
C o m p e n s a tio n p e r h o u r .........................................................
2 1 .5
2 8 .8
3 6 .7
4 2 .8
5 7 .6
1 0 8 .3
1 1 8 .8
1 3 2 .7
1 4 5 .8
............................................
5 4 .0
6 5 .1
7 5 .1
8 2 .3
8 9 .8
9 6 .2
9 8 .3
1 0 0 .0
1 0 0 .6
9 9 .2
9 7 .6
9 7 .2
99 3
U n it la b o r c o s t s ...........................................................................
4 3 .4
5 1 .0
6 1 .1
5 7 .5
7 2 .7
9 1 .5
9 4 .6
1 0 0 .0
1 0 7 .4
1 1 7 .0
1 3 0 .5
1 3 8 .5
1 4 8 .5
U n it n o n la b o r p a y m e n t s .........................................................
5 4 .3
5 8 .5
6 1 .1
69 3
6 5 .0
8 7 .3
9 3 .7
1 0 0 .0
1 0 2 .5
99 9
9 7 .7
1 1 0 .2
109 2
I m p li c it p r ic e d e f l a t o r ..............................................................
4 6 .6
5 3 .2
6 1 .1
6 1 .0
7 0 .5
9 0 .3
9 4 .4
1 0 0 .0
1 0 Í.0
1 1 2 .0
1 2 0 .9
1 3 0 .2
1 3 7 .0
R e a l c o m p e n s a tio n p e r h o u r
8 5 .4
1 N o t a v a ila b le .
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Ill
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • Current Labor Statistics: Productivity
29.
Annual changes in productivity, hourly com pensation, unit costs, and prices, 1 9 7 2 -8 2
A nnu al rate
Year
Ite m
of change
1 972
1 973
1974
197 5
197 6
1977
1978
1979
1980
- 1 .2
- 0 .5
1981
1982
2 .4
- 0 .1
1 9 5 0 -8 2
1 9 7 2 -8 2
B u s in e s s s e c to r :
O u t p u t p e r h o u r o f a ll p e r s o n s
......................
3 .5
2 .6
-2 .4
2 .2
3 .3
2 .4
0 .6
C o m p e n s a tio n p e r h o u r .......................................
6 .5
8 .0
9 .4
9 .6
8 .6
7 .7
8 .6
9 .4
1 0 .5
9 .7
R e a l c o m p e n s a tio n p e r h o u r
..........................
3 .1
1 .6
- 1 .4
0 .5
2 .6
1 .2
0 .9
- 1 .7
- 2 .6
-0 .6
1 .5
7 .7
2 .2
0 .9
6 .6
8 .9
2 .1
0 .2
.........................................................
2 .9
5 .3
1 2 .1
7 .3
5 .1
5 .1
8 .0
1 0 .7
1 1 .1
7 .1
7 .9
4 .3
7 .9
U n it n o n la b o r p a y m e n t s .......................................
4 .5
5 .9
4 .4
1 5 .1
4 .0
6 .4
6 .7
5 .8
5 .5
1 4 .4
0 .5
3 .7
6 .8
I m p li c it p r ic e d e f la t o r
3 .4
5 .5
9 .5
9 .8
4 .7
5 .6
7 .5
9 .0
9 .2
9 .4
3 .7
2 .4
- 2 .5
2 .0
3 .2
2 .2
0 .6
- 1 .5
- 0 .7
1 .9
C o m p e n s a tio n p e r h o u r .......................................
6 .7
7 .6
9 .4
9 .6
8 .1
7 .5
8 .6
9 .0
1 0 .4
9 .8
7 .8
6 .3
8 8
R e a l c o m p e n s a tio n p e r h o u r
3 .3
113
- 1 .4
0 .4
2 .2
1 .0
0 .9
- 2 .0
- 2 .8
- 0 .6
1 .6
1 .8
0 .1
2 .8
5 .0
1 2 .2
7 .5
4 .8
5 .2
8 .0
1 0 .7
1 1 .1
7 .7
7 .9
U n it la b o r c o s ts
...........................................
5 .4
4 .1
7 6
1 .8
0 8
N o n f a r m b u s in e s s s e c to r :
O u t p u t p e r h o u r o f a ll p e r s o n s
U n it la b o r c o s ts
......................
..........................
....................................................
- 0 .1
4 .4
8 .0
U n it n o n la b o r p a y m e n t s .......................................
3 .2
1 .3
5 .9
1 6 .7
5 .7
6 .9
5 .3
4 .8
7 .4
1 3 .9
1 .4
3 .7
6 8
I m p li c it p r ic e d e f la t o r
3 .0
3 .8
1 0 .2
1 0 .3
5 .1
5 .7
7 .1
8 .8
1 0 .0
9 .6
5 .8
4 2
7 6
............................................
N o n f in a n c ia l c o r p o r a t io n s :
O u t p u t p e r h o u r o f a ll e m p l o y e e s ..................
2 .9
2 .4
-3 .7
2 .9
2 .9
1 .8
0 .9
- 0 .2
- 0 .9
2 .5
0 .5
C o m p e n s a tio n p e r h o u r ...................................
5 .7
7 .5
9 .4
9 .6
7 .9
7 .6
8 .5
9 .4
1 0 .3
9 .7
7 .8
2 .4
( 1)
8 8
R e a l c o m p e n s a tio n p e r h o u r
1 .2
- 1 .5
0 .4
2 .0
1 .1
0 .7
- 1 .7
- 2 .8
- 0 .6
1 .6
<1 >
0 0
5 .7
7 .5
9 .6
U n it la b o r c o s ts
..........................
<1 )
.........................................................
2 .8
4 .9
1 3 .6
6 .5
4 .9
1 1 .3
7 .0
7 .3
U n it n o n la b o r p a y m e n t s .......................................
2 .7
<1 )
1 .5
7 .1
2 0 .1
4 .6
5 .3
4 .2
2 .6
9 .8
1 4 .5
2 .4
I m p li c it p r ic e d e f la t o r
2 .8
3 .8
<1 )
1 1 .4 .
1 0 .9
4 .8
5 .6
6 .4
7 .2
1 0 .8
9 .4
5 .7
............................................
M a n u fa c t u r in g :
.
......................
5 .0
5 .4
- 2 .4
2 .9
4 .4
2 .5
0 .8
0 .7
C o m p e n s a tio n p e r h o u r .......................................
5 .4
7 .2
1 0 .6
1 1 .9
8 .0
8 .3
8 .3
9 .7
1 1 .7
R e a l c o m p e n s a tio n p e r h o u r
2 .0
0 .9
- 0 .3
2 .5
2 .1
1 .8
0 .6
- 1 .4
- 1 .6
3 .4
5 .7
O u t p u t p e r h o u r o f a ll p e r s o n s
U n it la b o r c o s ts
..................
0 .2
3 .5
1 .2
2 4
1 9
8 5
6 4
9 4
2 .2
1 9
0 6
7 .2
0 .3
1 .7
1 3 .3
8 .8
7 .4
9 .0
1 1 .5
6 .1
0 .8
- 3 .3
- 1 .8
2 5 .9
7 .4
6 .7
2 .5
- 2 .6
- 2 .2
1 2 .8
I m p li c it p r ic e d e f la t o r
0 .5
0 .3
9 .0
1 3 .1
4 .6
6 .0
6 .0
5 .7
7 .9
7 .7
112
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
7 1
9 .9
............................................
1 N o t a v a ila b le .
7 8
7 6
-4
U n it n o n la b o r p a y m e n t s ..........................
...................................
(1 )
0 9
3 9
7 4
9
2 2
4 1
5 .2
3.4
6.5
-0
30.
Q uarterly indexes of productivity, hourly com pensation, unit costs, and prices, seasonally adjusted
[1977 = 100]
Q u a rte rly in d exes
Annual
averag e
Ite m
1981
1981
198 2
1
II
1982
III
IV
1
II
1983
III
IV
1
II
III
»
B u s in e s s s e c to r :
O u t p u t p e r h o u r o f a ll p e r s o n s
C o m p e n s a tio n p e r h o u r
...................................
1 0 1 .3
1 0 1 .2
1 0 0 .5
1 0 1 .1
1 0 2 .3
1 0 1 .2
1 0 1 .1
1 0 0 .7
1 0 1 .1
1 0 1 .9
1 0 2 .5
M 0 3 .8
P 1 0 5 .0
.....................................................
1 4 3 .9
1 5 5 .1
1 3 9 .7
1 4 2 .2
1 4 5 .5
1 4 8 .2
1 5 1 .6
1 5 3 .9
1 5 6 .5
1 5 8 .7
1 6 0 .7
1 6 2 .1
P 1 6 4 .3
R e a l c o m p e n s a tio n p e r h o u r ............................................
9 5 .9
9 7 .4
9 5 .6
9 7 .1
97 4
9 7 .1
9 8 .0
9 9 .4
9 9 .2
P 9 9 .5
U n it la b o r c o s t s ...........................................................................
1 4 2 .1
1 5 3 .3
1 3 9 .0
1 4 0 .7
1 4 2 .3
1 4 6 .4
1 4 9 .9
1 5 2 .9
1 5 4 .7
1 5 5 .6
1 5 6 .9
r 1 5 6 .2
P 1 5 6 .5
U n it n o n la b o r p a y m e n ts
.....................................................
1 3 6 .2
1 3 6 .9
1 3 1 .2
9 6 .3
133 4
9 6 .1
1 3 9 .9
9 5 .6
1 4 0 .2
1 3 7 .0
137 0
1 3 6 .3
137 4
1 4 0 .8
1 4 5 .8
P 1 4 8 .2
I m p li c it p r ic e d e f la t o r . .........................................................
1 4 0 .1
1 4 7 .7
1 3 6 .3
1 3 8 .2
1 4 1 .5
1 4 4 .3
1 4 5 .5
1 4 7 .5
1 4 8 .5
1 4 9 .4
1 5 1 .5
r 1 5 2 .7
P 1 5 3 .7
N o n f a r m b u s in e s s s e c to r :
O u t p u t p e r h o u r o f a ll p e r s o n s
...................................
1 0 0 .3
1 0 0 .2
1 0 0 .1
1 0 0 .1
1 0 1 .1
9 9 .9
100 0
9 9 .9
1 0 0 .4
1 0 0 .8
1 0 1 .7
r 1 0 3 .3
P 1 0 4 .5
.....................................................
1 4 3 .5
1 5 4 .7
1 3 9 .3
1 4 1 ,8
1 4 5 .1
1 4 7 .7
1 5 1 .3
1 5 3 .5
1 5 6 .1
1 5 8 .3
1 6 1 .0
1 6 2 .7
P 1 6 4 .5
R e a l c o m p e n s a tio n p e r h o u r ............................................
9 5 .6
9 7 .1
9 6 .0
9 5 .8
9 5 .3
9 5 .4
9 6 .9
9 7 .1
9 6 .9
9 7 .8
9 9 .5
9 9 .6
P 9 9 .5
1 5 8 .3
r 1 5 7 .4
P 1 5 7 .3
C o m p e n s a tio n p e r h o u r
U n it la b o r c o s t s ...........................................................................
1 4 3 .0
1 5 4 .4
1 3 9 .2
1 4 1 .6
1 4 3 .5
1 4 7 .8
1 5 1 .3
153 6
1 5 5 .4
1 5 7 .1
U n it n o n la b o r p a y m e n ts
.....................................................
1 3 5 .0
1 3 7 .0
1 3 0 .3
1 3 2 .2
1 3 8 .3
1 3 9 .5
1 3 6 .4
1 3 7 .7
1 3 6 .5
1 3 7 .2
1 4 0 .7
M 4 5 .9
P 1 4 9 .3
I m p li c it p r ic e d e f l a t o r ..............................................................
1 4 0 .4
1 4 8 .6
1 3 6 .2
1 3 8 .4
1 4 1 .8
1 4 5 .0
1 4 6 .4
1 4 8 .3
1 4 9 .1
1 5 0 .5
1 5 2 .4
1 5 3 .6
P 1 5 4 .6
N o n f in a n c ia l c o r p o r a t io n s :
O u t p u t p e r h o u r o f a ll e m p l o y e e s ...............................
C o m p e n s a tio n p e r h o u r
1 0 2 .3
1 0 2 .8
1 0 1 .8
1 0 2 .1
1 0 3 .0
1 0 2 .2
1 0 2 .4
1 0 2 .3
1 0 3 .2
1 0 3 .4
1 0 4 .3
r 1 0 5 .9
( 1)
.....................................................
1 4 3 .6
1 5 4 .8
1 3 9 .5
1 4 2 .0
1 4 5 .0
1 4 7 .8
1 5 1 .7
1 5 3 .7
1 5 6 .1
1 5 8 .1
1 6 0 .4
1 6 1 .6
( 1)
R e a l c o m p e n s a tio n p e r h o u r ............................................
9 5 .7
97 2
9 6 .2
9 5 .9
9 5 .2
9 5 .4
97 2
9 7 .2
9 6 .9
9 7 .7
9 9 .2
9 8 .9
<1 )
T o t a l u n it c o s t s ...........................................................................
1 4 2 .7
1 5 3 .5
1 3 8 .4
1 4 1 .1
1 4 3 .6
1 4 7 .7
1 5 0 .9
1 5 3 .1
1 5 3 .8
1 5 6 .3
1 5 6 .7
1 5 5 .3
( 1)
U n it la b o r c o s t s .............................................................
1 4 0 .3
1 5 0 .6
1 3 7 .0
1 3 9 .0
1 4 0 .7
1 4 4 .6
1 4 8 .1
1 5 0 .2
1 5 1 .1
1 5 2 .9
1 5 3 .9
1 5 2 .5
(1)
U n it n o n la b o r c o s t s .....................................................
1 4 9 .4
1 6 1 .8
1 4 2 .3
1 4 7 .0
1 5 1 .9
1 5 6 .6
1 5 8 .9
1 6 1 .2
1 6 1 .3
1 6 5 .9
1 6 4 .7
1 6 3 .1
( 1)
...................................................................................
1 0 4 .1
8 8 .9
1 0 3 .0
1 0 0 .3
1 0 8 .6
1 0 4 .2
90 8
9 0 .3
9 1 .2
8 3 .0
9 6 .1
1 1 5 .0
( 1)
I m p li c it p r ic e d e f l a t o r .............................................................
1 3 8 .3
1 4 6 .1
1 3 4 .3
1 3 6 .4
1 3 9 .6
1 4 2 .7
1 4 4 .0
1 4 5 .9
1 4 6 .6
1 4 7 .9
1 4 9 .7
1 5 0 .7
<1 )
...................................
1 0 5 .3
1 0 6 .5
1 0 5 .1
1 0 5 .4
1 0 6 .1
1 0 4 .4
1 0 5 .1
1 0 5 .3
1 0 7 .8
1 0 8 .1
1 1 0 .2
1 1 2 .6
U n it p r o f i t s
M a n u fa c t u r in g :
O u t p u t p e r h o u r o f a ll p e r s o n s
C o m p e n s a tio n p e r h o u r
P 1 1 5 .8
.....................................................
1 4 5 .8
1 5 8 .2
1 4 1 .6
1 4 4 .3
1 4 7 .0
1 5 0 .5
1 5 5 .1
1 5 7 .1
1 5 9 .6
1 6 1 .4
1 6 5 .5
1 6 6 .4
P 1 6 7 .6
R e a l c o m p e n s a tio n p e r h o u r ............................................
9 7 .2
9 9 .3
9 7 .6
9 7 .5
9 6 .5
9 7 .1
9 9 .4
9 9 .4
9 9 .1
9 9 .7
1 0 2 .3
1 0 1 .8
P 1 0 1 .4
U n it la b o r c o s t s ...........................................................................
1 3 8 .5
1 4 8 .5
1 ,3 4 .8
1 3 6 .9
1 3 8 .5
1 4 4 .1
1 4 7 .6
1 4 9 .1
1 4 8 .1
1 4 9 .3
1 5 0 .2
1 4 7 .8
P 1 4 4 .7
r =
r e v is e d .
p =
p r e lim in a r y .
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
1 N o t a v a ila b le ,
113
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • Current Labor Statistics: Productivity
31. Percent change from preceding quarter and year in productivity, hourly com pensation, unit costs, and prices,
seasonally adjusted at annual rate
Q u arterly percen t change at a n n u al rate
11982
II 1 9 8 2
III 1 9 8 2
IV 1 9 8 2
P ercen t chan g e fro m s a m e q u a rte r a y e a r ago
1 1983
II 1 9 8 3
I1 1981
I II 1 9 8 1
IV 1 9 8 1
1 1982
II 1 9 8 2
I II 1 9 8 2
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
II 1 9 8 2
I II 1 9 8 2
IV 1 9 8 2
11983
II 1 9 8 3
I II 1 9 8 3
I1 1982
I II 1 9 8 2
IV 1 9 8 2
1 1983
II 1 9 8 3
III 1 9 8 3
B u s in e s s s e c to r :
O u t p u t p e r h o u r o f a ll p e r s o n s ...........................
c - 1 .6
1 .7
3 .3
2 .0
r5 . 4
P 4 .8
- 0 .4
C o m p e n s a tio n p e r h o u r ............................................
6 .4
6 .7
5 .7
5 .4
3 .5
P 5 .6
8 .2
- 1 .0
3 .7
R e a l c o m p e n s a tio n p e r h o u r ...............................
7 .5
0 .7
1 .3
r 3 .1
P 3 .9
7 .1
6 .1
5 .3
P 5 .0
P 2 .4
5 .8
-0 .7
P 0 .8
1 .3
2 .5
2 .4
1 .9
8 .1
5 .0
2 .3
3 .3
r - 1 .8
P 6 .7
8 .7
8 .7
6 .3
4 .7
r2 . 2
.......................................
-0 .1
c - 2 .0
3 .2
1 0 .5
1 5 .0
P 2 .7
2 .7
r - 2 .6
r - 2 .0
2 .8
6 .5
P 8 .8
I m p li c it p r ic e d e f l a t o r ................................................
5 .5
2 .7
2 .6
5 .5
r3 .3
6 .7
4 .9
3 .5
4 .1
3 .5
P 3 .5
r6 . 6
1 .7
r3 . 4
U n it la b o r c o s t s ..............................................................
U n it n o n la b o r p a y m e n ts
1 .1
r -1 .1
1 .6
P 1 .1
N o n f a r m b u s in e s s s e c to r :
O u t p u t p e r h o u r o f a ll p e r s o n s ..........................
- 0 .4
2 .3
1 .3
3 .7
P 5 .0
- 0 .3
- 0 .6
C o m p e n s a tio n p e r h o u r ............................................
5 .8
7 .2
5 .8
6 .8
4 .3
P 4 .5
8 .2
7 .6
7 .2
6 .4
6 .0
P 5 .3
R e a l c o m p e n s a tio n p e r h o u r ...............................
0 .5
- 0 .6
3 .7
7 .2
0 .1
P -0 .3
1 .3
1 .7
2 .6
2 .7
2 .6
P 2 .7
U n it la b o r c o s t s .............................................................
6 .2
4 .7
4 .4
3 .0
r - 2 .1
P -0 .5
8 .5
8 .3
6 .3
4 .6
r2 . 5
U n it n o n la b o r p a y m e n ts
.......................................
3 .7
- 3 .4
2 .0
1 0 .6
r 1 5 .7
P 9 .2
4 .2
- 1 .3
-1 .6
3 .1
r6 . 0
P 9 .3
I m p li c it p r ic e d e f l a t o r ................................................
5 .4
2 .2
3 .7
5 .3
r3 . 2
P 2 .5
7 .1
5 .2
3 .7
4 .1
3 .6
P 3 .7
0 .8
P 4 .1
P 1 .2
N o n f in a n c ia l c o r p o r a t io n s :
O u t p u t p e r h o u r o f a ll e m p lo y e e s
..................
c - 0 .5
3 .8
0 .6
3 .4
r6 . 5
<1 >
C o m p e n s a tio n p e r h o u r ............................................
5 .4
6 .4
5 .4
6 .0
2 .9
<1 )
R e a l c o m p e n s a tio n p e r h o u r ...............................
0 .1
- 1 .3
3 .4
6 .4
r - 1 .2
<1 )
T o ta l u n it s c o s ts
U n it la b o r c o s ts
0 .1
0 .2
1 .8
r3 . 6
( 1)
8 .2
7 .6
7 .0
5 .8
5 .2
( 1)
1 .3
1 .7
2 .4
2 .1
1 .7
( 1)
1 .2
.........................................................
6 .0
1 .8
6 .7
1 .0
r - 3 .5
(1 )
8 .5
7 .1
5 .8
3 .8
r 1 .4
( 1)
.....................................................
6 .0
2 .4
4 .8
2 .5
r - 3 .4
(1)
8 .1
7 .4
5 .7
3 .9
1 .5
( 1)
6 .0
0 .1
1 1 .9
- 2 .8
r - 3 .8
U n it n o n la b o r c o s ts
U n it p r o f i t s
•
............................................
......................................................................
I m p li c it p r ic e d e f l a t o r ................................................
( 1)
9 .7
6 .2
6 .0
3 .7
1 .2
(1)
3 .8
-3 1 .4
7 9 .9
r 1 0 4 .7
(1)
- 9 .9
-1 6 .1
2 0 .3
5 .8
r2 7 .3
(1)
5 .4
1 .9
3 .6
5 .1
r2 .5
(1)
7 .0
5 .0
3 .6
4 .0
r3 .3
<1 )
0 .8
9 .6
1 .2
8 .0
r9 . 0
P 1 2 .1
1 .6
3 .5
4 .8
r6 .9
P 7 .5
-2 .1
M a n u fa c t u r in g :
O u t p u t p e r h o u r o f a ll p e r s o n s ..........................
-0 .1
C o m p e n s a tio n p e r h o u r ............................................
5 .1
6 .5
4 .5
1 0 .7
2 .1
P 3 .1
8 .8
8 .6
7 .3
6 .7
5 .9
P 5 .0
R e a l c o m p e n s a tio n p e r h o u r ...............................
- 0 .2
- 1 .2
2 .5
1 1 .1
-2 1
P -1 .6
1 .9
2 .6
2 .7
3 .0
2 .5
P 2 .4
U n it la b o r c o s t s .............................................................
4 .3
- 2 .8
3 .3
2 .5
r -6 .4
P -8 .0
8 .9
6 .9
3 .6
1 .8
r - 0 .9
- 2 .3
r =
r e v is e d .
c =
c o rre c te d .
114
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
1 N o t a v a ila b le ,
WAGE AND COMPENSATION DATA
D
are reported to the Bureau
of Labor Statistics by a sample of 2,000 private nonfarm estab
lishments and 750 State and local government units selected to
represent total employment in those sectors. On average, each
reporting unit provides wage and compensation information on
five well-specified occupations.
a t a
f o r
t h e
e m
p l o
y m
e n t
c o s t
in d e x
Data on negotiated wage and benefit changes are obtained from
contracts on file at the Bureau, direct contact with the parties, and
secondary sources.
Definitions
The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a quarterly measure of the average
change in the cost o f employing labor. The rate of total compensation,
which comprises wages, salaries, and employer costs for employee ben
efits, is collected for workers performing specified tasks. Employment in
each occupation is held constant over time for all series produced in the
ECI, except those by region, bargaining status, and area. As a consequence,
only changes in compensation are measured. Industry and occupational
employment data from the 1970 Census of Population are used in deriving
constant weights for the ECI. While holding total industry and occupational
employment fixed, in the estimation of indexes by region, bargaining
status, and area, the employment in those measures is allowed to vary over
time in accord with changes in the sample. The rate of change (in percent)
is available for wages and salaries, as well as for total compensation. Data
are collected for the pay period including the 12th day of the survey months
o f March, June, September, and December. The statistics are neither an
nualized nor adjusted for seasonal influence.
Wages and salaries consist of earnings before payroll deductions, ex
cluding premium pay for overtime, work on weekends and holidays, and
shift differentials. Production bonuses, incentive earnings, commissions,
and cost-of-living adjustments are included; nonproduction bonuses are
included with other supplemental pay items in the benefits category; and
payments-in-kind, free room and board, and tips are excluded. Benefits
include supplemental pay, insurance, retirement and savings plans, and
hours-related and legally required benefits.
Data on negotiated wage changes apply to private nonfarm industry
collective bargaining agreements covering 1,000 workers or more. Data
on compensation changes apply only to those agreements covering 5,000
workers or more. First-year wage or compensation changes refer to average
negotiated changes for workers covered by settlements reached in the period
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
and implemented within the first 12 months after the effective date of the
agreement. Changes over the life of the agreement refer to all adjustments
specified in the contract, expressed as an average annual rate. These meas
ures exclude wage changes that may occur under cost-of-living adjustment
clauses, that are triggered by movements in the Consumer Price Index.
Wage-rate changes are expressed as a percent of straight-time hourly earn
ings; compensation changes are expressed as a percent of total wages and
benefits.
Effective wage adjustments reflect all negotiated changes implemented
in the reference period, regardless of the settlement date. They include
changes from settlements reached during the period, changes deferred from
contracts negotiated in an earlier period, and cost-of-living adjustments.
The data also reflect contracts providing for no wage adjustment in the
period. Effective adjustments and each of their components are prorated
over all workers in bargaining units with at least 1,000 workers.
Notes on the data
The Employment Cost Index data series began in the fourth quarter of
1975, with the quarterly percent change in wages and salaries in the private
nonfarm sector. Data on employer costs for employee benefits were in
cluded in 1980, to produce a measure of the percent change in employers'
cost for employees' total compensation. State and local government units
were added to the ECI coverage in 1981, providing a measure of total
compensation change in the civilian nonfarm economy.
Data for the broad white-collar, blue-collar, and service worker groups,
and the manufacturing, nonmanufacturing, and service industry groups are
presented in the ECI. Additional occupation and industry detail are pro
vided for the wages and salaries component of total compensation in the
private nonfarm sector. For State and local government units, additional
industry detail is shown for both total compensation and its wages and
salaries component.
Historical indexes (June 1981 = 100) of the quarterly rates of changes
presented in the ECI are also available.
For a more detailed discussion of the ECI, see chapter 11, “ The Em
ployment Cost Index,’’ of the BLS Handbook of Methods (Bulletin 2 1 3 4 1), and the Monthly Labor Review articles: “ Employment Cost Index; a
measure of change in the ‘price of labor,” ’ July 1975; “ How benefits will
be incorporated into the Employment Cost Index,” January 1978; and
“ The Employment Cost Index; recent trends and expansion,” May 1982.
Additional data for the ECI and other measures of wage and compen
sation changes appear in Current Wage Developments, a monthly publi
cation of the Bureau.
115
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • Current Labor Statistics: Wage and Compensation Data
32.
Em ploym ent Cost Index, by occupation and industry group
[June 1981 = 100]
P ercen t change
C iv ilia n w o rk e rs 1 .................................................................................................................
W o r k e r s , b y o c c u p a t io n a l g r o u p
W h it e - c o lla r w o r k e r s .............................................................................................................
B lu e - c o lla r w o r k e r s
S e r v ic e w o r k e r s
1982
1981
S e rie s
.............................................................................................................
.....................................................................................................................
1983
June
Sept.
D ec.
M arch
June
Sept.
D ec.
M a rch
June
100.0
102.6
104 5
1 0 6 .3
1 0 7 .5
110.1
1 1 1 .4
1 1 3 .2
1 1 4 .5
100.0
100.0
100.0
102.8
1 0 2 .7
1 0 2 .3
3 m onths
1 2 m onths
ended
ended
June 1 9 8 3
1.1
6 .5
1 0 4 .1
1 0 5 .7
1 0 7 .1
1 1 2 .3
1 1 3 .6
1.1
1.2
6.1
1 0 7 .2
108 3
110.8
1 1 0 .5
1 0 4 .2
1 1 2 .4
1 1 4 .3
1 1 5 .1
.7
6 .3
1 0 4 .0
1 0 6 .0
1 0 7 .2
1 0 9 .3
1 1 0 .4
1 1 2 .5
1 0 4 .9
1 0 6 .5
1 0 7 .7
1 1 0 .7
1 0 9 .2
1 1 1 .9
1 1 3 .7
1 1 4 .9
6 .7
W o r k e r s , b y in d u s t r y d iv is io n
M a n u fa c t u r in g
..........................................................................................................................
N o n m a n u f a c t u r i n g .................................................................................................................
S e r v ic e s
...................................................................................................................................
P u b lic a d m in is t r a t io n 2
...............................................................................................
P riv a te industry w o rk e rs
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
102.1
102.8
.9
1 0 6 .4
1 0 7 .7
1 1 0 .5
111.8
1 1 3 .5
1 0 4 .8
1 1 3 .5
1 1 4 .9
1.2
6 .7
1 0 4 .4
1 0 7 .1
1 0 8 .2
1 0 9 .2
1 1 3 .5
1 1 5 .0
1 1 7 .1
.4
7 .2
1 0 4 .3
1 0 6 .0
1 0 8 .1
1 0 9 .1
112.8
1 1 6 .6
1 1 3 .6
1 1 6 .2
1 1 7 .0
.7
7 .2
100.0
102.0
1 0 4 .0
1 0 5 .8
1 0 7 .2
1 0 9 .3
1 1 0 .7
112.6
1 1 3 .9
1.2
6 .3 .
100.0
100.0
100.0
101.8
102.2
1 0 4 .0
1 0 5 .8
1 0 4 .0
1 0 5 .6
1 0 7 .0
1 0 9 .0
1 1 0 .3
1 0 1 .9
1 0 3 .1
1 0 6 .7
1 0 7 .9
1 0 9 .6
111.8
100.0
100.0
102.1
102.0
1 0 4 .0
1 0 6 .0
1 0 7 .2
1 0 9 .3
1 0 3 .9
1 0 5 .7
1 0 7 .1
1 0 9 .3
100.0
1 0 6 .3
1 0 7 .4
1 0 8 .8
1 0 9 .3
1 0 6 .7
1 0 7 .8
1 0 9 .1
1 0 9 .5
1 0 4 .2
1 0 5 .9
1 0 8 .2
5 .9
W o r k e r s , b y o c c u p a t io n a l g r o u p
W h it e - c o lla r w o r k e r s
B lu e - c o lla r w o r k e r s
....................................................................................................
........................................................................................................
S e r v ic e w o r k e r s .................................................................................................................
1 0 7 .2
1 0 9 .5
110.8
112.8
112.1
1 1 3 .5
1.2
1.2
1 1 3 .8
1 1 4 ,6
.7
1 1 4 .2
6 .5
6.1
6.2
W o r k e r s , b y in d u s t r y d iv is io n
M a n u f a c t u r i n g ......................................................................................................................
N o n m a n u f a c t u r in g .............................................................................................................
S ta te and lo c a l g o v e rn m e n t w o r k e r s ...................................................................
1 1 0 .4
1 1 2 .5
110.8
112.6
1 1 3 .5
.9
1 1 4 .2
1 .4
1 1 4 .3
1 1 5 .1
1 1 6 .5
1 1 7 .1
.5
1 1 4 .9
1 1 5 .8
1 1 7 .0
1 1 7 .5
.4
1 0 8 .9
1 1 2 .7
1 1 3 .0
1 1 4 .9
1 1 5 .8
.8
1 0 9 .4
1 1 4 .9
5 .9
6.6
7 .1
W o r k e r s , b y o c c u p a t io n a l g r o u p
W h it e - c o lla r w o r k e r s
B lu e - c o lla r w o r k e r s
....................................................................................................
.........................................................................................................
W o r k e r s , b y in d u s t r y d iv is io n
S e r v ic e s
...................................................................................................................................
S c h o o l s ..............................................................................................................................
E le m e n ta r y a n d s e c o n d a r y
H o s p ita ls a n d o t h e r s e r v ic e s 3
P u b lic a d m in is t r a t io n 2
..........................................................................
..........................................................................
................................................................................................
E x c l u d e s f a r m , h o u s e h o ld , a n d F e d e r a l w o r k e r s .
2 C o n s is ts o f le g is la t iv e , ju d ic ia l, a d m in is t r a t iv e , a n d r e g u la t o r y a c tiv it ie s .
116
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
1 0 5 .8
1 0 7 .9
1 0 9 .0
1 1 5 .9
1 1 6 .8
1 1 7 .4
1 0 6 .0
1 0 7 .9
1 0 8 .9
1 0 9 .1
1 1 4 .8
1 1 5 .8
1 1 6 .6
1 1 6 .9
1 0 6 .3
1 0 8 .3
1 0 9 .3
1 0 9 .5
1 1 5 .6
1 1 6 .6
1 1 7 .2
1 1 7 .4
.5
.3
1 0 5 .0
1 0 7 .8
1 0 9 .5
1 1 0 .3
1 1 5 .3
1 1 6 .0
1 1 7 .5
1 1 8 .8
.2
1.1
1 0 4 .3
1 0 6 .0
1 0 8 .1
1 0 9 .1
1 1 2 .5
1 1 3 .6
1 1 6 .2
1 1 7 .0
.7
3 ln c lu d e s , f o r e x a m p le , li b r a r y , s o c ia l, a n d h e a lth s e r v ic e s .
7 .3
6 .3
7 .3
7 .1
7 .2
7 .7
7 .2
33.
E m ploym ent C ost Index, w ages and salaries, by occupation and industry group
[June 1981 = 100]
P erc e n t c hange
1981
S e rie s
C iv ilia n w o rk e rs 1
...................................................................................................................
1982
1983
June
Sept.
D ec.
M a rch
June
S ept.
D ec.
M a rch
June
100.0
1 0 2 .5
1 0 4 .4
1 0 6 .3
1 0 7 .3
1 0 9 .7
1 1 0 .9
112.2
1 1 3 .4
100.0
100.0
100.0
102.6
1 0 4 .7
1 0 6 .7
1 0 7 .6
1 1 0 .4
1 1 1 .4
1 0 2 .4
1 0 4 .0
1 0 6 .5
1 0 6 .7
1 0 8 .6
1 0 2 .5
1 0 3 .6
1 0 6 .8
1 0 7 .9
110.1
1 0 9 .8
3 m onths
1 2 m onths
ended
ended
Ju n e 1 9 8 3
1.1
5 .7
W o r k e r s , b y o c c u p a t io n a l g r o u p
W h it e - c o l la r w o r k e r s ..............................................................................................................
B lu e - c o lla r w o r k e r s
S e r v ic e w o r k e r s
..............................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................
111.8
1 1 3 .0
1 1 4 .2
110.8
112.0
1 1 3 .2
1 1 3 .9
1.1
1.1
.6
6.1
5 .0
5 .6
W o r k e r s , b y in d u s t r y d iv is io n
102.1
1 0 4 .0
1 0 5 .9
1 0 7 .0
1 0 8 .8
1 0 2 .7
1 0 4 .5
1 0 6 .5
1 0 7 .5
110.1
1 0 4 .4
1 0 6 .6
1 0 8 .6
1 0 9 .5
1 1 3 .2
1 1 4 .4
1 0 3 .8
1 0 6 .5
1 0 7 .5
1 0 8 .4
1 1 1 .9
112.6
1 1 5 .8
.................................................................................................
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
1 1 4 .6
P riv a te in d u s try w o r k e r s ...............................................................................................
100.0
102.0
1 0 3 .8
1 0 5 .9
1 0 7 .1
1 0 9 .0
1 1 0 .3
111.6
1 1 2 .9
M a n u fa c t u r in g
...........................................................................................................................
N o n m a n u f a c t u r i n g ...................................................................................................................
S e r v ic e s
....................................................................................................................................
P u b lic a d m in is t r a t io n 2
1 0 9 .8
111.0
112.0
1 1 1 .3
1 1 2 .7
1 1 4 .0
.9
4 .7
1 1 6 .3
.4
6.0
6.2
1 1 5 .4
.7
6 .5
1.2
5 .4
1.2
1.0
1.8
6 .3
1.2
W o r k e r s , b y o c c u p a t io n a l g r o u p
W h it e - c o l la r w o r k e r s
.....................................................................................................
P r o fe s s io n a l a n d t e c h n ic a l w o r k e r s ..............................................................
M a n a g e r s a n d a d m in is t r a t o r s
...........................................................................
S a l e s w o r k e r s ...................................................................................................................
C le r ic a l w o r k e r s ..............................................................................................................
B lu e - c o lla r w o r k e r s ..........................................................................................................
C r a ft a n d k in d r e d w o r k e r s ....................................................................................
O p e r a tiv e s , e x c e p t t r a n s p o r t ...............................................................................
T r a n s p o r t e q u i p m e n t o p e r a tiv e s
. ...................................................................
N o n f a r m l a b o r e r s ..........................................................................................................
S e r v ic e w o r k e r s ...................................................................................................................
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
101.8
1 0 3 .9
1 0 6 .2
1 0 3 .3
1 0 5 .5
1 0 8 .0
1 0 9 .4
102.8
111.8
1 1 2 .9
1 1 4 .8
1 0 5 .8
1 0 7 .2
1 0 8 .5
1 0 9 .3
112.0
101.6
9 8 .0
1 0 1 .9
102.2
1 0 7 .3
101.8
1 0 9 .4
110.6
1 0 4 .5
1 0 6 .2
1 0 2 .7
1 0 4 .2
1 0 7 .0
1 0 8 .3
1 1 0 .3
111.6
1 0 2 .3
1 0 3 .9
1 0 5 .4
1 0 6 .6
1 0 8 .5
1 0 9 .7
1 0 2 .9
102.1
101.0
1 0 1 .5
101.8
1 0 4 .3
1 0 6 .2
1 0 7 .6
1 0 9 .6
111.2
1 0 4 .1
1 0 5 .4
1 0 6 .6
1 0 8 .3
1 0 9 .3
1 0 2 .7
1 0 3 .2
1 0 4 .1
1 0 6 .0
1 0 6 .9
112.2
1 0 5 .7
1 1 3 .6
1 1 5 .9
1 1 4 .0
1 0 7 .1
1 1 3 .4
1 1 4 .6
1 1 0 .7
1 1 1 .9
112.2
110.0
1 0 8 .0
1 1 3 .4
111.1
1 1 0 .3
1 .3
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.0
2.1
5 .9
5 .9
5 .2
5 .8
5 .0
5 .4
4 .2
6.0
1 0 3 .3
1 0 4 .1
1 0 5 .1
1 0 6 .5
1 0 7 .8
1 0 9 .0
1 0 9 .8
.7
4 .5
1 0 2 .7
1 0 6 .7
1 0 7 .9
1 0 9 .3
1 1 1 .4
1 1 2 .9
1 1 3 .5
.5
5 .2
W o r k e r s , b y in d u s t r y d iv is io n
S e r v i c e s ................................................................................................................................
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
S ta te a nd lo c a l g o v e rn m e n t w o r k e r s ...................................................................
100.0
M a n u f a c t u r i n g ...................................................................................................................
D u r a b l e s ................................................................................................................................
N o n d u r a b le s
...................................................................................................................
N o n m a n u f a c t u r i n g ..............................................................................................................
C o n s t r u c t io n
...................................................................................................................
T r a n s p o r t a tio n a n d p u b l ic u t i l i t i e s ..................................................................
W h o le s a le a n d r e ta il t r a d e ....................................................................................
W h o le s a le tr a d e
.....................................................................................................
R e ta il t r a d e ...................................................................................................................
F in a n c e , in s u r a n c e , a n d r e a l e s t a t e ..............................................................
102.1
102.1
102.0
102.0
1 0 3 .8
1 0 5 .9
1 0 7 .1
1 0 9 .1
1 1 0 .5
112.0
1 0 3 .0
1 0 4 .3
1 0 5 .9
1 0 7 .3
1 0 9 .1
1 0 9 .7
112.1
1 0 5 .7
1 0 6 .9
1 0 9 .5
111.1
1 1 0 .4
1 0 3 .6
1 1 2 .9
1 1 4 .7
102.0
1 0 1 .3
102.0
101.0
1 0 4 .5
1 0 6 .3
1 0 7 .4
1 0 9 .0
1 1 0 .3
111.0
111.1
112.0
111.8
1 0 3 .1
1 0 5 .3
1 0 6 .3
1 0 8 .5
1 0 9 .1
1 1 0 .9
1 1 2 .3
1 0 4 .0
1 0 5 .9
1 0 7 .0
1 0 8 .8
1 0 9 .8
1 0 2 .3
1 0 3 .9
1 0 5 .8
1 0 6 .5
1 0 7 .2
1 0 8 .5
1 0 3 .4
1 0 6 .3
1 0 8 .9
1 0 9 .0
1 0 9 .8
111.8
. 1 0 4 .5
1 1 3 .4
110.8
1 1 4 .1
1 0 1 .9
1 0 3 .0
1 0 7 .2
1 0 9 .4
9 8 .3
1 0 2 .3
1 0 3 .7
1 0 2 .4
1 0 6 .1
110.6
111.1
1 0 5 .8
1 0 8 .8
110.0
1 0 9 .0
1 0 3 .6
1 1 2 .5
1 1 4 .3
1 1 6 .0
1 1 6 .6
1 0 6 .5
1 0 6 .1
.9
.6
1 .3
4 .7
4 .1
5 .6
1 .3
5 .9
1 .5
4 .5
1.6
2.1
2.1
2.1
7 .3
4 .7
4 .8
4 .7
.5
8 .5
.5
6.0
1 0 5 .0
1 0 7 .0
1 0 8 .2
1 0 8 .7
1 1 3 .5
1 1 4 .0
1 1 5 .1
1 1 5 .7
.5
6 .4
1 0 5 .4
1 0 7 .5
1 0 8 .5
1 0 8 .9
1 1 4 .2
1 1 4 .6
1 1 5 .6
1 1 6 .1
.4
6.6
1 1 3 .3
1 1 4 .3
.9
5 .9
1 1 5 .5
1 1 5 .9
.3
6 .5
W o r k e r s , b y o c c u p a t io n a l g r o u p
W h it e - c o l la r w o r k e r s
.....................................................................................................
B lu e - c o lla r w o r k e r s ..........................................................................................................
100.0
100.0
1 0 3 .9
1 0 5 .5
1 0 7 .5
1 0 7 .9
1 1 1 .5
112.0
1 0 5 .5
1 0 7 .6
1 0 8 .4
1 0 8 .8
1 1 4 .2
1 1 4 .6
W o r k e r s , b y in d u s t r y d iv is io n
S e r v i c e s .....................................................................................................................................
S c h o o l s ................................................................................................................................
E le m e n t a r y a n d s e c o n d a r y
H o s p ita ls a n d o t h e r s e r v i c e s 3
P u b lic a d m in is t r a t io n 2
...........................................................................
...............................................................................
.................................................................................................
E x c l u d e s f a r m , h o u s e h o ld , a n d F e d e r a l w o r k e r s .
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
1 1 6 .5
1 1 7 .7
.2
.2
1.0
1 1 4 .6
1 1 5 .4
.7
1 0 5 .7
1 0 7 .7
1 0 8 .3
1 0 8 .5
1 1 4 .2
1 1 4 .5
1 1 5 .2
1 1 5 .4
1 0 6 .0
1 0 7 .9
1 0 8 .7
1 0 8 .8
1 1 4 .9
1 1 5 .1
1 1 5 .6
1 1 5 .8
1 0 4 .6
1 0 7 .3
1 0 8 .8
1 0 9 .5
1 1 4 .3
1 1 4 .9
1 0 3 .8
1 0 5 .5
1 0 7 .5
1 0 8 .4
1 1 1 .9
112.6
6 .4
6 .4
7 .5
6 .5
i n c l u d e s , f o r e x a m p le , li b r a r y , s o c ia l . ¡ a n d h e a lth s e r v ic e s .
C o n s i s t s o f le g is la t iv e , ju d i c ia l , a d m in is t r a t iv e , a n d r e g u la t o r y a c tiv it ie s .
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
117
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1983 • Current Labor Statistics: Wage and Compensation Data
34.
Em ploym ent Cost Index, private industry w orkers, by bargaining status, region, and area size
[June 1981 = 100]
P ercen t change
1982
1981
S erie s
M a rch
June
1 983
S ep t.
D ec.
June
Sept.
Dec.
100.0
100.0
100.0
1 0 2 .5
1 0 4 .8
1 0 6 .5
1 0 8 .4
110.6
1 0 2 .3
1 0 4 .6
1 0 6 .3
1 0 8 .0
1 1 0 .3
1 0 2 .7
1 0 5 .0
1 0 6 .8
1 0 8 .7
111.0
111.8
112.8
1 0 1 ,7
1 0 3 .5
1 0 5 .3
1 0 6 .5
1 0 8 .5
1 0 9 .7
101.8
1 0 3 .5
1 0 5 .7
1 0 6 .6
1 0 6 .4
1 0 9 .2
1 0 1 .7
1 0 3 .5
1 0 6 .2
1 0 6 .4
1 0 8 .6
100.0
100.0
102.1
101.8
1 0 4 .1
1 0 5 .7
1 0 7 .2
1 0 3 .2
1 0 6 .2
1 0 7 .0
100.0
100.0
100.0
1 0 2 .7
1 0 5 .0
102.6
102.8
1 0 4 .7
1 0 5 .9
1 0 7 .3
1 0 5 .2
1 0 7 .0
1 0 8 .8
100.0
100.0
100.0
101.6
1 0 1 .7
101.6
1 0 3 .3
1 0 5 .9
1 0 6 .7
1 0 8 .2
1 0 9 .1
1 0 3 .2
1 0 5 .5
1 0 6 .4
1 0 8 .3
1 0 9 .6
M a rch
3 m onths
1 2 m onths
ended
ended
June
June 1 9 8 3
CO M PE N SA TIO N
W o r k e r s , b y b a r g a in in g s t a t u s 1
U n io n
....................................................................................................................................................
M a n u fa c t u r in g
..........................................................................................................................
N o n m a n u f a c t u r i n g .................................................................................................................
N o n u n io n
...........................................................................................................................................
M a n u fa c t u r in g
.................................................................................................................
N o n m a n u f a c t u r i n g .................................................................................................................
W o r k e r s , b y a r e a s iz e 1
M e tr o p o lita n a r e a s
O th e r a r e a s
......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................................
100.0
100.0
100.0
1 1 2 .3
1 1 4 .5
1 1 6 .0
1 .3
7 :0
1 1 4 .0
1 1 4 .8
.7
6 .3
1 1 4 .9
1 1 7 .1
1 .9
7 .7
1 1 1 .5
112.8
5 .3
1 1 2 .3
1 0 9 .9
111.2
111.6
1.2
1.0
1 1 3 .0
1 .3
1 0 9 .4
1 1 0 .9
1 1 2 .9
1 1 4 .2
6 .5
1 0 9 .1
110.8
1.2
1 0 8 .6
1 1 2 .3
1 .4
5 .0
5 .9
6.2
W AGES AN D SALARIES
W o r k e r s , b y b a r g a in in g s t a t u s 1
U n io n
.........................................................................................................................................................
M a n u fa c t u r n g
....................................................................................... ..................................
N o n m a n u f a c t u r i n g .................................................................................................................
N o n u n io n
............................................................................................................................................
M a n u fa c t u r in g
..........................................................................................................................
N o n m a n u f a c t u r i n g .................................................................................................................
W o r k e r s , b y r e g io n 1
N o r th e a s t
S o u th
............................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................................
N o r th C e n tr a l
...................................................................................................................................
W e s t ........................................................................................................................................................
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
102.1
101.8
1 0 3 .2
1 0 6 .5
1 0 5 .6
1 0 8 .1
1 0 6 .5
1 1 0 .3
1 0 9 .5
111.1
1 0 8 .3
111.8
110.8
1 1 1 .4
1 1 2 .3
1.2
.8
1 1 2 .7
1 1 4 .3
1 1 6 .0
1 .5
1 0 9 .5
1 1 2 .9
1 1 0 .9
1 1 0 .7
111.0
1 1 4 .2
5 .6
4 .7
6.6
112.2
111.8
1.2
1.0
4 .8
1 1 2 .4
1 .3
5 .6
5 .4
1 0 6 .1
1 0 6 .7
1 0 9 .7
1 1 1 .5
112.0
1 1 3 .6
1 .4
1 0 5 .7
1 0 7 .4
101.6
102.8
1 0 8 .8
1 0 9 .8
1 1 1 .4
1.0
1 0 3 .3
1 0 4 .7
1 0 6 .1
1 0 7 .6
110.1
1 1 2 .5
1 1 1 .5
1 .3
5 .1
1 0 3 .2
1 0 5 .1
1 0 7 .9
1 0 8 .6
1 1 0 .7
1 1 4 .1
1 1 4 .9
.7
5 .8
1 0 4 .0
1 0 5 .9
1 0 7 .1
1 0 9 .1
1 1 0 .5
1 1 1 .9
1 0 3 .1
1 0 6 .0
1 0 6 .8
1 0 8 .3
1 0 8 .8
110.1
1.2
1.2
4 .3
1 0 1 .7
1 0 1 .9
1 0 4 .4
1 0 8 .6
112.0
6 .5
4 .7
W o r k e r s b y a r e a s iz e 1
M e tr o p o lita n a r e a s
O th e r a r e a s
......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................................
1 T h e in d e x e s a r e c a lc u la te d d iffe r e n t ly f r o m t h o s e f o r t h e o c c u p a t io n a n d in d u s t r y g r o u p s . F o r a
d e ta ile d d e s c r ip tio n o f th e in d e x c a lc u la tio n , s e e B L S H a n d b o o k o l M e th o d s , B u lle t in 1 9 1 0 .
I
118
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
1 1 3 .2
1 1 1 .4
5 .7
35.
W age and com pensation change, m ajor collective bargaining settlem ents, 1978 to date
[In percent]
36.
Effective w age adjustm ents in collective bargaining units covering 1,000 w orkers or m ore, 1978 to date
Y ear
M e a s u re
Y e a r and q u a rte r
1981
1978
1 979
198 0
1981
1982
1983P
1 982
III
IV
1
II
III
IV
1
II
A v e r a g e p e r c e n t a d ju s t m e n t ( in c lu d in g n o c h a n g e ) :
M a n u f a c t u r i n g ......................................................................................................................
8.2
8.6
N o n m a n u f a c t u r i n g ...................................................................................
7 .9
A ll I n d u s t r i e s ......................................................................
9 .1
9 .6
8.8
10.2
9 .5
6.8
3 .3
1 .5
1.0
9 .4
5 .2
3 .1
1 .9
9 .7
9 .5
7 .9
3 .4
1.1
.9
9 .9
F r o m s e tt le m e n t s r e a c h e d in p e r i o d .........................................................
2.0
3 .0
3 .6
2 .5
1 .7
.5
.4
D e f e r r e d f r o m s e tt le m e n t s re a c h e d In e a r lie r p e r i o d ...............................
3 .7
3 .0
3 .5
3 .6
1 .5
3 .1
3 .2
1 .4
1.2
.4
2 .4
2.8
3 .8
F r o m c o s t - o f - li v in g c la u s e s
—
—
—
8 ,6 4 8
7 ,8 5 2
4 ,3 6 4 '
.......................................
.6
2.0
1.0
2 .4
1 .3
1 .7
1 .5
2 .9
1.2
.9
.6
-.2
1.1
2 .7
.2
.6
.4
.5
1 .4
1 .3
.3
2
.6
0 .4
- .4
.4
4
.3
.1
1 .3
1.0
1 .4
2
1.0
.1
T o ta l n u m b e r o f w o r k e r s r e c e iv in g w a g e c h a n g e
( in t h o u s a n d s ) 1
...................................................................................
3 ,2 2 5
2 ,8 7 8
3 ,4 2 3
3 ,7 6 0
3 ,4 4 1
3 ,0 3 0
3 ,1 0 8
604
204
511
620
825
434
454
F r o m s e t t le m e n t s re a c h e d
in p e r i o d .........................................................
—
—
—
2 ,2 7 0
1 ,9 0 7
540
..........................
—
—
—
6 ,2 6 7
4 ,8 4 6
3 ,0 2 3
882
1,001
1 ,5 9 4
2 ,4 0 0
860
840
1 ,4 4 6
............................................
—
—
—
4 ,5 9 3
3 ,8 3 0
2 ,9 3 4
2 ,1 7 9
1 ,9 2 0
1 ,5 6 8
2 ,2 5 1
1 ,9 7 0
2 .0 7 5
1 ,3 9 5
—
—
—
145
483
4 ,4 2 8
5 ,5 6 8
5 ,4 5 7
4 ,9 1 2
4 ,5 7 5
4 ,8 9 5
5 ,0 8 5
5 ,0 0 7
D e f e r r e d f r o m s e tt le m e n t s
r e a c h e d in e a r lie r p e r io d
F r o m c o s t - o f - li v in g c la u s e s
N u m b e r o f w o r k e r s r e c e iv in g n o a d ju s t m e n ts
( in t h o u s a n d s ) ..................................................................
T h e t o ta l n u m b e r o f w o r k e r s w h o r e c e iv e d a d ju s t m e n ts d o e s n o t e q u a l th e s u m o f w o r k e r s t h a t r e c e iv e d
p =
p r e lim in a r y ,
e a c h t y p e o f a d ju s t m e n t, b e c a u s e s o m e w o r k e r s r e c e iv e d m o r e t h a n o n e t y p e o f a d ju s t m e n t d u r in g t h e
p e r io d .
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
119
WORK STOPPAGE DATA
Estimates of days idle as a percent of estimated working time
measures only the impact of larger strikes (1,000 workers or more).
Formerly, these estimates measured the impact of strikes involving
6 workers or more; that is, the impact of virtually a l l strikes. Due
to budget stringencies, collection of data on strikes involving fewer
than 1,000 workers was discontinued with the December 1981
data.
include all known strikes or lockouts involving
1,000 workers or more and lasting a full shift or longer. Data are
based largely on newspaper accounts and cover all workers idle
one shift or more in establishments directly involved in a stoppage.
They do not measure the indirect or secondary effect on other
establishments whose employees are idle owing to material or
W
o
r k
s t o p p a g e s
service shortages.
37.
W ork stoppages involving 1,000 w orkers or m ore, 1947 to date
M o nth and y ear
B eginning in
m onth or y ear
Days die
W o rk e rs in vo lved
N u m b er ot stoppages
In effect
during m onth
B eginning in
In effect
m onth or y ear
d u ring m onth
(in th ousands)
(in th ousands)
2 6 ,1 2 7
1 ,4 3 5
245
1 9 4 9 ................................................................................................................................................
424
(in th o u san d s)
2 5 ,7 2 0
1 ,6 2 9
1 9 4 7 ................................................................................................................................................
N u m b er
P erc e n t of
e s tim a te d
w o rkin g tim e
.22
2 ,5 3 7
4 3 ,4 2 0
38
1 ,6 9 8
3 0 ,3 9 0
.2 6
.12
415
1 ,4 6 2
1 5 ,0 7 0
............................................................................................................................................
470
2 ,7 4 6
4 8 ,8 2 0
.3 8
1 9 5 3 ................................................................................................................................................
437
1 ,6 2 3
1 8 ,1 3 0
.1 4
.1 3
1952
1 9 5 4 ................................................................................................................................................
1 9 5 6 ................................................................................................................................................
265
1 ,0 7 5
1 6 ,6 3 0
363
2 ,0 5 5
2 1 ,1 8 0
.1 6
287
1 ,3 7 0
2 6 .8 4 0
.20
.0 7
1 9 5 7 .................................................................................................................................................
279
887
1 0 ,3 4 0
1 9 5 8 ................................................................................................................................................
332
1 ,5 8 7
1 7 ,9 0 0
.1 3
1959
245
1 ,3 8 1
6 0 ,8 5 0
.4 3
896
1 3 ,2 6 0
.0 9
1 0 ,1 4 0
.0 7
............................................................................................................................................
1 9 6 1 ................................................................................................................................................
1 9 6 2 .................................................................................................................................................
1 9 6 4 ................................................................................................................................................
1 9 6 6 .................................................................................................................................................
1 9 7 1 ................................................................................................................................................
222
195
1 ,0 3 1
211
793
1 81
512
246
1 ,1 8 3
1 6 ,2 2 0
999
1 5 ,1 4 0
.11
.10
.10
1 ,3 0 0
1 6 ,0 0 0
381
2 ,1 9 2
3 1 ,3 2 0
J a n u a ry
F e b ru a ry
M a rc h
20
1 ,8 5 5
3 5 ,5 6 7
412
1 .5 7 6
2 9 ,3 9 7
.1 6
381
2 ,4 6 8
5 2 ,7 6 1
.2 9
298
2 ,5 1 6
3 5 ,5 3 8
.1 9
250
975
1 6 ,7 6 4
.0 9
317
1 ,4 0 0
1 6 ,2 6 0
.0 8
424
1 ,7 9 6
3 1 ,8 0 9
.1 6
965
1 7 ,5 6 3
.0 9
1 ,5 1 9
2 3 .9 6 2
298
1,212
2 1 ,2 5 8
219
1 ,0 0 6
2 3 ,7 7 4
235
1,021
.12
.10
.11
2 0 ,4 0 9
.0 9
187
795
2 0 ,8 4 4
.0 9
145
729
1 6 ,9 0 8
.0 7
96
656
9 ,0 6 1
.0 4
202.8
.01
.01
.02
6.1
.....................................................................................................
2
.....................................................................................................
3
7
3 .9
1 5 .3
2 4 1 .1
.........................................................................................................
4
9
1 3 .3
2 6 .1
3 5 7 .0
14
21
5 9 .5
15
23
4 2 .7
66.1
6 5 7 .6
.0 4
27
4 2 .8
6 6 .9
9 0 7 .2
.0 5
A p r il
.............................................................................................................
May
.............................................................................................................
4
1 1 ,4
7 9 .1
5 3 3 .1
.0 3
.............................................................................................................
18
J u l y ..................................................................................................................
13
25
3 8 .4
6 5 .9
8 4 4 .7
.0 4
A u g u s t .........................................................................................................
9
23
1 8 .8
5 8 .0
7 5 4 .3
.0 4
S e p t e m b e r ................................................................................................
14
27
3 9 0 .0
4 2 7 .0
2 ,0 8 8 .8
June
1983P
.1 8
392
231
1982
.0 8
.0 7
321
235
1982
1 1 ,7 6 0
10,020
1.6
J a n u a ry
.....................................................................................................
1
3
F e b ru a ry
....................................................................................................
5
7
1 4 .0
10
1 0 .5
M a rc h
.........................................................................................................
A p r il
.............................................................................................................
M ay
.............................................................................................................
June
. . .....................................................................................................
5
2
11
2.8
9
2 3 .6
16
.11
.0 4
3 8 .0
7 9 4 .8
5 0 .4
8 4 4 .4
.0 5
.0 5
5 4 .9
1 ,1 3 1 .5
5 2 .4
7 8 9 .5
.0 4
3 2 .9
4 9 3 .9
.0 3
15
24
6 8 9 .0
.0 3
J u l y ..................................................................................................................
r10
r23
r4 9 .9
r 8 5 .1
M , 1 9 8 .1
r .0 7
A u g u s t .........................................................................................................
7
r 19
r6 7 5 .8
7 3 0 .4
r 1 0 ,6 5 5 .7
r .5 1
16
1 8 .2
4 7 .3
1 0 ,6 5 5 .7
.0 3
S e p t e m b e r ................................................................................................
p = p r e lim in a r y .
120
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
4
5 9 .8
f =
r e v is e d .
7 9 .7
BLS Handbook of Methods
1982 Edition, Volume I*
• L a b o r fo rc e , e m p lo y m e n t, and
u n e m p lo y m e n t
•
N e g o tia te d w a g e a n d b e n e fit
changes
B L S s ta tis tic s a re u s e d fo r m a n y
p u rp o s e s , a n d s o m e tim e s d a ta
w e ll s u ite d to o n e p u rp o s e m a y
h a ve lim ita tio n s fo r a n o th e r. T h is
H a n d b o o k a im s to p ro v id e u s e rs
o f B L S d a ta w ith th e in fo r m a tio n
n e c e s s a ry to e v a lu a te th e
s u ita b ility o f th e s ta tis tic s fo r th e ir
n e e d s . In c lu d e d a re p ro g ra m
d e s c r ip tio n s fo r:
• O c c u p a tio n a l e m p lo y m e n t
s ta tis tic s
•
E m p lo y m e n t C o s t In d e x e s
•
P r o d u c tiv ity m e a s u re s
• C o n s u m e r e x p e n d itu re s a nd
in c o m e
•
O c c u p a tio n a l s a fe ty a n d h e a lth
s ta tis tic s
• P ro d u c e r P ric e In d e x e s
•
E c o n o m ic g ro w th s tu d ie s
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