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MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
}
U.S. Department of Labor
Bureau of Labor Statistics
July 1982
In this issue:
Prices decelerate in the First Quarter
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Tmr
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
JULY 1982
VOLUME 105, NUMBER 7
Henry Lowenstern, Editor-in-Chief
Robert W. Fisher, Executive Editor
Craig Howell and others
3 Inflation continues to abate during the first quarter
The rate of price increases decelerated in both the retail and primary markets,
with the Consumer Price Index registering its lowest quarterly rise since 1965
Mark S. Sieling
10 Clerical pay differences in metropolitan areas, 1961-80
Salaries of office workers generally are higher in large urban areas and in the West
and North Central region; interarea differences narrowed in 1960’s, widened in 1970’s
Howard N Fullerton
15 How accurate were projections of the 1980 labor force?
All four of the Bureau’s projections were lower than the actual 1980 labor force;
most of the discrepancy is linked to underestimation of participation rates of women
Max L. Carey, Kevin Kasunic
22 Evaluating the 1980 projections of occupational employment
Job projections prepared by BLS in 1970 proved slightly less accurate than estimates
for 1965-75; classification changes limit analysis to fewer than half of 160 occupations
Neal H. Rosenthal
31 Shortages of machinists: an evaluation of the information
Machinists appear to be in short supply, but statistics are unreliable; employers facing
shortages may raise wages, increase training, or use technological improvements
REPORTS
J. A. Bunn, J. E. Triplett
Deborah Pisetzner Klein
J. Kleinfeld, J. A. Kruse
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37 Reconciling the CPI and the PCE Deflator: first quarter 1982
39 Labor force data: the impact of the 1980 census
47 Native Americans in labor force: hunting for an accurate measure
DEPARTMENTS
2
37
39
44
47
52
53
57
63
Labor month in review
Anatomy of price change
Technical note
Family budgets
Research summaries
Major agreements expiring next month
Developments in industrial relations
Book reviews
Current labor statistics
RESEARCH LIBRARY
Federal Reserve Bank
of St. Loti is
Labor M onth
In Review
WORK FORCE REDUCTIONS.
Around the world, many firms have
found it necessary to reduce the number
of workers on their payrolls. The prob
lem has caused governments, business,
and workers to essay new solutions
through legislation, administrative ac
tion, and collective bargaining. To assess
the significance of recent developments,
the International Labor Office invited a
number of experts to prepare studies of
current law and practice in their coun
tries. This year, the il o issued a volume
of selected studies. The following ex
cerpts are taken from the comparative
survey of national practices by Edward
Yemin, editor of the volume and head
of the Labor Legislation Section of
the il o :
sharply drawn in Europe and Japan,
where a more formal legal view of the
employment relationship has grown up,
than in Canada and the United States,
where the relationship still tends to be
rather informal.
Comparisons. Work force reductions af
fect the contracts of employment of the
workers concerned, involving a termina
tion or suspension of such contracts. In
European countries and in Japan, con
tracts of employment are either of an in
definite duration (in which case they
may be terminated by giving prior
notice, usually subject to rules protec
ting workers against unjustified dis
missal), or they are for a fixed duration
or specified task (in which case they ter
minate upon expiration of the agreed
Change. In the industrialized market period or completion of the given task).
economies, a decade of growth and In these countries, indefinite-duration
relative full employment in the 1960’s contracts of employment tend to prevail,
was followed by a decade in which recur recourse to fixed-term contracts being
rent recessions threw large numbers of limited in practice, sometimes as a result
persons out of work in circumstances in of legal restrictions on their use. In
which the fight against inflation muted Canada and the United States, contracts
recourse to classical Keynesian solutions of employment are generally deemed to
for growing unemployment. At the same be from day to day or even from hour to
time, the introduction of technological hour and may be terminated by either
innovations caused redundancies in cer party at will in the absence of a contrary
tain industries. In addition, certain im stipulation in the contract or in an ap
portant industries in some countries plicable collective agreement.
went through periods of crisis and con
In European countries, work force re
traction due to structural problems and ductions tend to be carried out mainly
international competition.
through termination of the contracts of
employment of the workers concerned
Definition. By work force reduction or (by dismissal, induced resignation or
redundancy, we mean dismissal or long mutual agreement) and to a much lesser
term layoff of workers for economic, degree through nonrenewal of fixedstructural, or technological reasons in term contracts (few workers being
tended either to reduce the number of employed under such contracts).
workers employed or to alter the com Suspensions of the contract are
position of the work force. Work force sometimes resorted to in situations
reductions may be effectuated by dif which clearly require very short interrup
ferent methods from the legal point of tions of work and, when used in times of
view. The distinctions between these economic difficulties, are more closely
methods, derived from the law govern associated with work-sharing ar
ing contracts of employment in the rangements such as short-time work.
countries concerned, have become more
In Japan, in situations where the
2
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
“ life-time employment” system is im
plemented, employers avoid as far as
possible termination of their regular
work force, preferring to effectuate any
needed work force reduction by non
renewal of a relatively small body of
temporary workers employed under
short fixed-term contracts. Where this is
not sufficient, they still prefer to use
other methods, including a form of tem
porary layoff with part pay, detachment
to related companies, or induced volun
tary departure. Dismissals of regular
workers tend to be used only as a last
resort in situations of very severe diffi
culty.
In Canada and the United States,
work force reductions are generally car
ried out by layoff; however, this term is
not used with conceptual precision and
is employed to describe work force
reductions intended to be of very brief
duration and of a somewhat longer
duration, and reductions that are intend
ed to be permanent, as well as to reduc
tions the length of which the employer is
unable to foresee. Layoff may thus be
intended at the outset to be either a
suspension of the employment relation
ship or a termination; but it may also be
a suspension which at some point in time
becomes, either according to the terms
of the applicable agreement or at the
election of one of the parties, a termina
tion. This can also occur in other coun
tries, such as Great Britain, where a
suspension of the employment relation
ship may be treated by the worker as a
dismissal under certain circumstances.
The 214-page study, Work force Reduc
tions in Undertakings: Policies and
measures for the protection of redun
dant workers in seven industrialized
market economy countries, is available
from major booksellers or il o local of
fices in various countries, or direct
from il o Publications, International
Labour Office, CH-1211 Geneva 22,
Switzerland.
□
\i. ) o S
*3 % . ^
ûx
8 »-
Inflation continues to abate
during the first quarter
The rate of price increases decelerated
in both the retail and primary markets,
with the Consumer Price Index posting
its lowest quarterly rise since 1965
C raig H owell, D avid Callahan ,
an d Mary Burns
After slowing substantially in 1981, inflation continued
to decelerate in both the retail and primary markets
during the first quarter of 1982. The Consumer Price
Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) advanced at a
seasonally adjusted annual rate of increase of 1.0 per
cent, the lowest quarterly rise since 1965.1(See table 1.)
The recession and a continued abundance of oil were
among the principal influences pushing inflation down.
The housing and auto industries, particularly hard hit
by slumping demand, showed significant price de
creases. Retail gasoline prices fell at a record rate, as
supplies remained high.
One measure of the underlying rate of inflation— the
CPI for all items less food, energy, and mortgage interest
costs— increased at an annual rate of 5.7 percent in the
first quarter. This was slightly more than in the preced
ing 3 months but was somewhat slower than the 8.0percent rise in 1981. Replacing the present homeownership component with the future rental equivalence mea
sure (cPl-U-Xl),2 the index would have advanced at a
'ra te of 2.7 percent, compared with 8.5 percent in 1981.
At the primary market level, the Producer Price In
dex (ppi) for Finished Goods edged up at a seasonally
Craig Howell, David Callahan, and Mary Burns are economists in the
Office of Prices and Living Conditions, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
They were assisted by Jesse Thomas, Andrew Clem, John Wetmore,
and Eddie Lamb, economists in the same office.
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
adjusted annual rate of 0.6 percent, the slowest quarter
ly advance for this index since it dipped during the first
quarter of 1976. The finished energy goods index fell at
a rate of 18.5 percent, a drop approached only by a
14.2-percent rate of decline in the first quarter of 1976.
Price increases for capital equipment and for finished
consumer goods other than foods and energy both
slowed to rates below 4 percent, considerably less than
in other recent quarters. The index for finished
consumer foods moved up moderately. Prices for inter
mediate goods declined slightly in the first 3 months of
1982, the first decrease since the second quarter of
1975. Because of higher raw foodstuff prices, the crude
materials index rose at a rate of 1.0 percent, following
sharp declines in the third and fourth quarters of 1981.
The continuing deterioration of the economy and the
persistence of the highest levels of real (that is, in
flation-adjusted) interest rates since the Great
Depression restrained inflation in many retail and pri
mary markets. Consumer reluctance to expand pur
chases of goods and services reflected such factors as
fears of possible unemployment, the rising burden of in
terest costs on debts incurred in more inflationary
times, and the difficulty of obtaining home mortgages.
Some business firms canceled or postponed capital ex
penditures in the face of uncertain demand and their
own strained profit and cash flow positions. Many com
panies liquidated excessive inventories because of poor
3
jt
<V
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW July 1982 • Price Changes in the First Quarter
sales and high interest costs, or delayed rebuilding in
ventories until an end to the recession was more appar
ent. By boosting the value of the American dollar in
international currency markets, high interest rates
tended to price American exports out of foreign mar
kets, while improving the competitive standing of im
ports in this country.
Table 1.
New car prices decline
Retail prices for commodities other than food and
energy increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of
4.5 percent, a larger increase than in the fourth quarter
of 1981, but somewhat below the 1981 yearly rate of
5.9 percent. (See table 2.) Prices of most commodities
Changes in selected components of the Consumer and Producer Price Indexes, 1981-82
Grouping
Relative
importance
Dec. 1981
Compound annual rates, seasonally adjusted
except as noted, for 3 months ended —
Percent change
Mar. 1981
to
Ivlui • 19oZ
1981
1982
June
Sept.
Dec.
Mar.
Consumer Price Index for
Ail Urban Consumers (CPi-U)1
All items ..................................................................................
Food and beverages ..............................................................
Food at hom e.......................................................................
Food away from home .......................................................
Alcoholic beverages ............................................................
housing....................................................................................
Shelter ..................................................................................
Rent, residential2 ................................................................
Homeownership..............................................................
Home purchase2 ................................................................
Financing, taxes and insurance2 ..........................................
Maintenance and repairs.....................................................
Fuel and utilities.....................................................................
Household furnishings and operation ......................................
Apparel and upkeep................................................................
Apparel commodities ..............................................................
Apparel services .....................................................................
100.0
17.5
11.3
5.2
1.0
46.0
31.9
5.1
26.1
9.6
12.9
3.6
6.9
7.2
4.6
4.0
.7
6.8
4.0
3.2
5.7
4.8
8.5
8.6
8.2
8.6
3.1
13.6
6.9
10.0
6.8
3.2
2.6
7.5
8.1
2.3
0.3
6.6
5.6
13.0
15.1
7.7
16.9
8.7
25.9
10.7
8.6
7.8
2.6
1.8
8.9
12.8
7.6
7.8
7.1
7.0
16.9
19.8
10.2
21.5
12.4
33.1
8.9
14.8
6.9
6.4
5.5
9.8
5.4
1.8
-0 .3
6.1
1.4
3.6
1.8
9.0
0.3
-5.7
3.6
5.6
9.3
6.8
0.8
-0 .2
7.7
1.0
4.2
4.9
2.8
5.6
1.3
-0.9
5.9
-2.4
-1.9
-4.2
2.4
7.5
5.7
3.2
3.2
3.6
Transportation.........................................................................
Private transportation ..............................................................
Public transportation2 ..............................................................
Medical care ...........................................................................
Medical care commodities...............................................
Medical care services..............................................................
Entertainment ..................................................................
Other goods and services.....................................................
All items ............................................................
F o o d .........................................................................................
Commodities less food and energy ........................................
Energy2 ............................................................
Services less energy ............................................................
All items ................................................................
Services ..............................................................................
Commodities ..............................................................
All items less food, energy and
mortgage interest costs ...................................
All items (X-1 approach)..........................................................
19.3
18.0
1.3
4.9
.8
4.1
3.6
4.0
100.0
16.6
32.8
11.1
39.5
100.0
43.2
56.8
4.2
3.5
14.6
12.0
10.7
12.2
6.7
10.3
6.8
4.0
6.2
-.8
10.9
6.8
11.3
3.6
2.3
1.6
14.3
11.8
12.3
11.6
5.1
11.3
8.1
2.2
8.7
4.7
14.8
8.1
14.8
3.2
11.6
10.0
37.5
14.4
11.9
14.9
6.9
10.8
12.8
7.7
9.5
3.0
19.1
12.8
19.2
8.5
11.6
12.0
5.8
11.7
9.1
12.3
7.3
8.4
5.4
1.7
2.2
-2.4
7.6
5.4
7.8
3.6
-7 .2
8.3
3.5
10.2
9.5
10.4
7.4
10.1
1.0
3.9
4.5
-8 .0
2.4
1.0
3.5
-0 .8
61.5
—
7.7
6.4
8.6
5.9
11.4
10.1
5.2
7.5
57
2.7
Finished goods ..............................................................
Finished energy goods ...................................................
Finished consumer foods ...............................................
Finished goods less foods............................................
Finished goods less foods and e n e rg y ....................................
Finished consumer goods less fo o d s .............................
Finished consumer goods less foods and energy ...............
Capital equipment ............................................................
100.0
12.7
21.9
78.1
65.3
57.2
44.5
20.8
4.1
-2 .8
1.8
4.8
6.3
4.0
6.0
6.8
7.1
3.5
3.5
8.1
9.0
7.6
8.8
10.0
3.4
-3 .6
1.6
4.0
5.6
3.2
5.4
5.7
5.2
9.7
-3 .7
7.7
7.4
7.2
6.4
9.7
0.6
18.5
58
7
3.2
1.7
3.6
2.1
Intermediate materials, supplies and components......................
Intermediate energy goods ............................................
Intermediate foods and feeds ...............................................
Intermediate materials less foods and fe e d s ..................
Intermediate materials less foods and energy........................
100.0
17.0
5.3
94.7
77.6
2.9
- .5
-7 .0
3.6
4.6
7.4
1.9
- .3
8.0
8.8
3.8
-2.1
-18.3
5.2
7.1
2.0
4.2
-12.9
2.8
2.4
12
56
56
15
.3
Crude materials for further processing......................
Crude energy materials2 ............................................
Crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs......................................
Crude nonfood materials........................................................
Crude nonfood materials less energy......................................
100.0
33.6
50.6
49.4
15.8
-4 .3
.4
-5.4
-2.7
-9 .7
10.8
4.3
6.4
16.1
47.7
-9 .7
1.1
-18.2
1.1
1.2
-16.6
2.9
-25.5
-5 .6
-22.5
1.0
65
23 3
184
-40.3
Producer Price Index (PPI)
by stage of processing1
1See “ Definition” and “ Notes" preceding tables 19-27 of Current Labor Statistics in this
eview2 Not seasonally adjusted.
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Federal Reserve
Bank of St. Louis
4
Note: PPI data shown above and elsewhere in this article may differ from those previously
reported because PPI data through November 1981 have been revised to reflect the availability
of late reports and corrections by respondents.
related to the depressed housing and automotive indus
tries decelerated or declined. The home purchase com
ponent of the index decreased for the second
consecutive quarter. Furniture price advances slowed, as
the low level of new housing construction contributed
to sluggish demand. Prices for textile housefurnishings
also rose less than in the previous 3 months. However,
price increases accelerated for many household appli
ances and equipment, reflecting the annual introduction
of new models at higher prices.
New car prices dropped at a rate of 3.0 percent pri
marily because of rebates by domestic manufacturers.
Despite the rebates and lower automobile finance charg
es, demand remained low throughout the quarter. Used
car price increases slowed considerably, following large
increases in the second half of 1981. Advances in tire
prices continued to decelerate, reflecting the year-long
slump in the market.
Retail prices of apparel other than footwear rose at
an annual rate of 3.9 percent, after declining in the
fourth quarter. The upturn reflected the end of dis
counts and higher prices for spring merchandise. Price
increases for tobacco products, toilet goods, housekeep
ing supplies, and school books accelerated to double
digit rates.
The ppi for finished consumer goods other than foods
and energy moved up at a seasonally adjusted annual
rate of 3.6 percent. This represented a substantial slow
down from the 6.4-percent rate of advance at the end of
1981 and the 6.9-percent increase from December 1980
to December 1981. Unusually large rebates for some
passenger cars and light motor trucks accounted for
much of this deceleration. Continued rapid declines in
precious metal prices were reflected in sharply lower
prices for gold jewelry, silver flatware, and photograph
ic film (which requires much silver to manufacture). Pri
mary market prices for leather footwear, floor
coverings, and televisions and radios also dropped in
the first quarter. Price increases slowed markedly for
soaps and detergents, books, and household furniture,
while prices for sanitary paper products, tires and tubes,
and glassware continued to show little or no change.
In contrast, inflation accelerated to double-digit rates
in the ppi for a number of consumer products, including
newspapers, periodicals, tobacco products, textile house
furnishings, cosmetics, household appliances, and pre
scription drugs. Each of these indexes climbed at a
faster pace during the first 3 months of 1982 than in
1981 as a whole.
Capital equipment. The Producer Price Index for capital
equipment rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of
2.1 percent, considerably less than in any other recent
quarter and the slowest rate of advance since the final 3
months of 1972. (See table 3.) Most of this deceleration
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table 2. Changes in retail prices for selected
commodities less food and energy, 1981-82
CPI grouping
Percent
change
Relative
importance Mar. 1981
to
Dec. 1981
Mar. 1982
Compound annual rate,
seasonally adjusted
except as noted, for 3
months ended —
1982
1981
June
Sept.
Dec.
6.2
8.7
9.5
2.2
Mar.
Commodities less food
and e n e rg y...............
100.0
Alcoholic beverages.............
2.9
4.8
5.6
7.0
1.4
5.6
29.2
3.1
8.7
12.4
-5.7
-1.9
1.0
1.5
3.5
4.6
9.0
5.2
6.2
8.4
3.2
1.8
10.3
9.0
2.6
11.7
5.1
7.7
5.4
3.5
4.0
2.7
4.4
4.1
6.4
7.6
6.0
6.0
8.8
3.9
6.6
5.3
.5
2.7
6.1
6.1
10.2
10.2
Apparel commodities less
footwear ...........................
Footwear...............................
10.2
1.9
2.4
3.8
1.2
5.2
6.1
3.9
-1.4
5.0
3.9
1.0
New c a rs ...............................
Used cars .............................
Auto parts and equipment' ..
9.5
9.1
1.8
6.3
19.3
4.4
20.9
8.5
4.0
3.6
44.2
8.0
5.0
22.7
3.6
-3 .0
5.5
2.1
Medical care commodities . . .
2.4
10.7
12.3
11.9
9.1
9.5
7.0
6.5
Home purchase' ..................
Maintenance and repair
commodities' ....................
Textile housefurnishings . . . .
Furniture and bedding...........
Appliances, including radio
and T V '.............................
Other household equipment' .
Housekeeping supplies’ . . . .
4.5
Entertainment commodities ..
6.5
6.5
6.3
6.2
Tobacco products’ ...............
Toilet goods and personal
care appliances'...............
Schoolbooks and supplies . . .
3.2
10.2
13.0
4.8
9.5
13.5
4.6
35.8
6.2
2.1
10.4
12.7
2.2
.5
8.2
14.2
11.6
9.2
' Not seasonally adjusted.
was caused by the downturn in the motor vehicles in
dex, reflecting manufacturers’ rebates on some new cars
and light trucks; prices for heavy trucks continued to
rise, although at a slower pace than in any other recent
quarter. Prices for generators, textile machinery, and
food products machinery turned down in the first quar
ter, and increases slowed for railroad equipment, print
ing trades machinery, agricultural machinery, metal
cutting machine tools, and transformers. Construction
machinery prices jumped sharply as the year began but
had retreated somewhat by March, reflecting the dis
tressed state of the construction sector.
In contrast, accelerated advances were registered for
commercial furniture, photographic equipment, wood
working machinery, metal forming machine tools, and
pumps and compressors. Even though demand for most
kinds of capital equipment weakened markedly at the
end of 1981 and into early 1982, producers of these
goods felt that demand was strong enough to permit
price boosts. Recent changes in tax depreciation rules
were especially beneficial to commercial furniture manu
facturers.
Prices for oilfield and gasfield machinery climbed at a
12.3-percent rate, twice as much as in the previous
quarter, but not as fast as the 17.7-percent increase reg
istered in 1981. Demand for these goods, which had
5
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW July 1982 • Price Changes in the First Quarter
Table 3. Changes in producer prices for selected capital
equipment, 1981-82
PPI grouping
Percent
Relative
change
importance Mar. 1981
Dec. 1981
to
Mar. 1982
Compound annual rate,
seasonally adjusted
except as noted, for 3
months ended —
1981
June Sept.
Capital equipment...........................
Agricultural machinery and
equipment .................................
Construction machinery and
equipment1 .................................
Metal cutting machine to o ls ...........
Metal forming machine tools .........
Pumps, compressors, and
equipment .................................
Industrial material handling
equipment .................................
Food products machinery .............
Textile m achinery...........................
Generators and generator sets . . .
Transformers and power regulators1
Oilfield and gasfield machinery1 . . .
Mining machinery and equipment ..
Office and store machines and
equipment1 .................................
Commercial furniture1 ....................
100.0
6.8
10.0
1982
Dec.
Mar.
5.7
9.7
2.1
5.9
8.9
12.7
7.3
9.5
6.1
6.9
1.7
1.0
7.9
8.2
6.5
9.7
4.0
5.2
8.2
7.6
11.3
6.9
12.7
2.5
6.7
8.7
7.1
2.1
9.7
12.5
13.4
5.3
8.0
3.5
1.8
1.4
2.4
2.3
.9
.7
5.5
8.4
5.6
10.4
9.5
14.3
8.2
5.4
12.5
15.3
10.1
12.0
11.2
7.2
8.9
12.5
4.5
13.5
10.2
28.8
12.0
3.6
10.9
5.2
20.8
10.1
6.1
7.4
4.1
-1 .8
-1 .9
-1.8
5.8
12.3
6.1
5.8
2.7
.5
6.4
-.3
4.4
3.7
8.1
7.3
5.9
3.9
15.7
Passenger cars .............................
Light motor trucks1 ........................
Heavy motor trucks1 ......................
Fixed wing, utility a ircraft...............
Railroad equipment........................
10.9
6.8
5.3
4.4
2.1
6.9
3.3
8.8
7.9
5.7
15.6 -7 .7
15.9 -26.9
13.8
12.6
12.2
11.3
-1.4
9.6
26.7
76.4
5.8
2.8
11.5
-3.3
-23.9
3.3
5.3
3.5
Photographic equipment ...............
2.2
3.3
4.1
11.2
0
-1 .5
1Not seasonally adjusted.
been largely impervious to sluggishness in the overall
economy over the past several years, became much
weaker as 1982 began. The worldwide glut of oil and its
downward pressure on prices of many kinds of petro
leum products led to a marked drop in domestic oil ex
ploration and development.
Gasoline cheaper, utilities higher
Consumer energy prices. Energy items in the CPI
dropped at an annual rate of 8.0 percent in the first 3
months of 1982, the largest quarterly decrease since
1962. (See table 4.) Prices for all petroleum-based prod
ucts continued the downward trend experienced since
the spring of 1981. Gasoline and home heating oil
supplies remained at very high levels relative to de
mand, leading to lower prices.
Retail gasoline prices plunged at a record rate of 27.8
percent, a dramatic contrast to the 50.4-percent rate of
increase recorded for the first quarter of 1981. On an
unadjusted basis, gasoline prices dropped each month
without interruption from March 1981 to March 1982.
The major factors pushing prices down were abundant
supplies and lower demand. In addition, large supplies
of low-cost Chinese gasoline were shipped to the Pacific
and Gulf Coast areas. These additional supplies also re
duced prices, particularly on the West Coast. Competi
tive pressures led to price wars in certain sections of the
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country, with a resultant squeeze on retailer profit
margins.
Fuel oil prices decreased at an annual rate of 10.4
percent for the first quarter, the largest decline since
1965, in spite of extremely cold weather in much of the
country. Factors.affecting gasoline prices had a similar
impact on fuel oil prices. Fuel oil prices decreased con
tinually from March 1981 through March 1982, except
when increased seasonal demand pushed prices up
slightly in December and January.
In contrast to the declining trend in prices of petro
leum products, consumer price increases for gas and
electricity accelerated to an annual rate of 15.4 percent
in the first quarter, from a 10.6-percent rate in the
fourth quarter. Utility rate increases in the West and
fuel adjustment increases in the North Central and
South regions contributed greatly to the rise in the elec
tricity index. Higher purchased-gas adjustments and
rate increases in the South were the major factors push
ing up the natural gas index.
Industrial fuels. The PPI for intermediate energy goods
turned down with a 5.6-percent seasonally adjusted an
nual rate of decline, after advancing at a 4.2-percent
rate in the fourth quarter. Continued weakening of in
dustrial demand coupled with lower costs of crude oil
resulted in price decreases for all fuels derived from pe
troleum.
The index for liquefied petroleum gas plummeted at a
47.3-percent annual rate; as a result, by the end of the
quarter, this index was at the lowest level since the end
of 1979. Prices for residual fuel, diesel fuel, and com
mercial jet fuel continued to fall, but less rapidly than
liquefied petroleum gas prices. In marked contrast, the
electric power index rose even more sharply than in the
fourth quarter. Regulatory authorities granted rate in
creases to cover greater capital construction costs re
sulting from high long-term interest rates; likewise, fuel
adjustment charges had an upward effect on prices in
areas where coal and natural gas are used for power
generation.
Crude energy. The crude energy materials index de
clined at a 6.5-percent annual rate in the first quarter
because of sharp decreases in the index for crude petro
leum (which reflects only domestic prices). Demand for
crude oil continued to slide, as evidenced by the re
duced volume of imports (23 percent lower than in the
first quarter of 1981 and the lowest level since 1974)
and the record-low rate of refinery capacity utilization
(65 percent). Domestic crude oil prices fell at a rate of
about 20 percent, and import prices showed similar de
clines. The pricing structure of the Organization of Pe
troleum Exporting Countries ( o p e c ) continued to break
down, as Libya, Iran, and some other members cut
their prices by more than $4 per barrel in an effort to
increase their share of a shrinking market. After an
emergency meeting of OPEC in March, Saudi Arabia
agreed to further reduce its production levels.
Producer prices of natural gas continued to advance,
but less than in other recent quarters. The slowdown
was concentrated in the intrastate portion of the mar
ket, where prices had jumped sharply at the end of
1981. In contrast, somewhat larger advances occurred
for interstate gas prices, reflecting the growing share of
more expensive “new” gas.3 Price increases accelerated
for coal, as a weather-related surge in demand quickly
affected prices because of relatively slim inventories on
hand.
Food prices spurt, then dip
After showing small increases in each of the last three
months of 1981, the food component of the Consumer
Price Index increased rapidly in January and February,
before turning down in March. The net annual rate of
increase for the quarter was 3.9 percent after seasonal
adjustment. The Producer Price Index for finished
consumer foods showed a similar pattern during the
first quarter, but rose at a net rate of 5.8 percent. The
behavior of both indexes paralleled developments in the
PPI category for crude foodstuffs and feedstuff's, which
declined beginning in August 1981, surged in January,
and then moderated in February and March.
Table 4.
Fresh vegetable prices showed the greatest volatility.
Decreased winter acreage, the mid-January freeze in
Florida, insect damage, shifts in production areas, and
reduced imports from Mexico combined to lead to
sharply reduced supplies as the year began. The PPI
component for fresh vegetables jumped 14.7 percent in
December, while the corresponding CPI measure rose
16.8 percent in January. Lettuce was particularly hard
hit by whitefly damage in California and Arizona; in the
CPI, prices doubled from November to January. By
March, the downturn was just as sharp, with lettuce
prices approaching the November level. Prices for toma
toes and many other fresh vegetables had a similar pat
tern. The PPI for fresh vegetables ended with a net
decline for the quarter, while the corresponding CPI cat
egory ended with a net increase. Citrus fruits were also
hit hard by the freeze, and retail prices for both oranges
and orange juice rose substantially in January and Feb
ruary. Fresh orange prices had started to fall by March,
though, after the extent of the damage turned out to be
less than from the 1977 and 1981 freezes.
Cattle prices rose 7.8 percent; hog prices, 17.6 per
cent; and poultry prices, 9.7 percent over the first quar
ter as harsh winter weather disrupted production and
marketing activity, especially in the North Central
States where hog production is concentrated. In addi
tion, hog inventories were down from year-earlier levels
as farmers cut back production for 1982. Producer
Chanqes in retail and producer prices for energy items, 1981-82
Item
Relative
importance
Dec. 1981
Percent change
Mar. 1981
to
Mar. 1982
CPI
PPI
CPI
CPI
PPI
CPI
CPI
PPI
CPI
PPI
CPI
100.0
100.0
54.5
52.7
55.2
45.5
12.5
14.8
13.4
20.3
19.7
PPI
PPI
PPI
PPI
PPI
PPI
PPI
PPI
PPI
PPI
Index
Compound annual rate, seasonally adjusted
except as noted, for 3 months ended1982
1981
June
Sept
Dec.
Mar.
-0.8
-2.8
-8.5
-8.7
-8.0
9.3
-4.2
-6.3
16.0
22.9
14.4
4.7
3.5
-15.7
-16.1
-8.9
9.1
-6.4
3.8
17.5
47.0
15.5
3.0
-3.6
1.9
1.8
-8.4
11.3
—4.9
-5.8
15.6
16.6
20.6
-2.4
9.7
12.1
-8 .0
-18.5
-27.3
14.7
9.1
5.5
-25.2
8.5
9.9
17.4
9.9
21.2
13.4
11.7
100.0
9.5
8.5
14.1
4.4
30.6
-.5
-3.8
-.4
-12.1
-15.7
15.1
1.9
4.9
19.0
-9.1
-2.1
-10.5
-10.9
-12.5
4.2
-2.1
-4.6
-17.2
11.5
19.6
12.2
-5 .6
-6 .9
-2 .8
-9.4
47 3
17.1
100.0
31.5
55.3
13.2
.4
22.9
-11.6
9.5
4.3
47.0
-12.2
9.1
1.1
16.6
-9.0
15.9
2.9
17.4
-4.6
4.3
-6.5
13.4
-19.9
9.1
Finished items (sold to consumers)
Energy items’ .................................................................
Finished energy g o o d s...................................................
Motor fuels2 ................................................................
Gasoline3 .................................................................
Household fu e ls ..........................................................
Fueloil1 3 4 ..............................................................
Gas (piped)3 5 ........................................................
Electricity.................................................................
Intermediate goods (sold to business)
Intermediate energy g o o d s ............................................
Diesel fuel3 5 ..............................................................
Commercial jet fuel3 5 .................................................
Residual fuel3 ............................................................
Liquefied petroleum gas5 ..........................................
Electric power ............................................................
Crude materials
Crude energy materials5 ...............................................
Natural gas3 5 ............................................................
Crude petroleum5 ........................................................
Coal5 .........................................................................
1Not seasonally adjusted in the CPI.
2 Includes motor oil, coolant, and similar products.
3 Prices for these items are lagged one month in the PP .
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4
Includes coal and bottled gas in the CPI.
Not seasonally adjusted in the PPI.
7
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW July 1982 • Price Changes in the First Quarter
prices for beef and veal, pork, and processed poultry
also increased, although not as sharply. The 9.2-percent
increase in producer pork prices translated into a
2.5-percent rise at the retail level.
Corn prices rose 8.7 percent in the first quarter, with
virtually all of the increase occurring in January. Cold
weather increased demand for feed grains. In addition,
large quantities of corn were placed into the Federal
grain reserve program. Wheat prices advanced 2.6 per
cent after seasonal adjustment. Export demand for
wheat remained strong. Although cold weather did only
minimal damage, the winter wheat crop was not in as
good condition as last year’s. Nevertheless, larger plant
ed acreage may result in another record harvest. In con
trast, milled rice prices continued to fall because of
record harvests in the United States and some other rice
exporting countries and improved harvests in several
rice importing nations. Soybean prices also fell, as the
Brazilian crop entered export markets.
Government price support programs played a key
role for some farm commodities. Raw sugar prices ini
tially rose in response to new duties and fees on imports
designed to prop up domestic prices, but the target
price was not achieved before prices started falling to
nearly the December level.4 Prospects of a large Europe
an sugar beet crop, large stockpiles of sugar imported
before the duty was imposed, and the possibility of
duty-free imports of Caribbean sugar all served to hold
down prices. Because of a static support price, dairy
products showed small retail price increases for four
consecutive quarters despite chronic surpluses.
Rent increases ease
The services less energy component of the CPI moved
up at a rate of 2.4 percent, compared with a 7.6-percent
rate of increase in the previous quarter. The slowdown
was largely due to a downturn in contracted mortgage
interest costs, as well as slower rates of advance for a
broad range of other items, including residential rent,
housekeeping services, transportation services, and ap
parel services. The categories for medical care services
and for personal and educational services continued to
move up at double-digit rates, although not as fast as in
other recent quarters.
Contracted mortgage interest costs declined at a rate
of 6.5 percent, following a 2.8-percent rate of increase
in the fourth quarter and rapid runups earlier in 1981,
reflecting decreases both in house prices and in m ort
gage interest rates. The component for mortgage inter
est rates fell at a rate of 5.1 percent, in line with other
long-term interest rates. The increase in the residential
rent component slowed to a rate of 5.9 percent, follow
ing a 9.0-percent rate in the fourth quarter.
The transportation services category moved up at a
6.0-percent rate, considerably less than in the previous
8
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quarter. Auto finance charges moved down as some do
mestic car manufacturers slashed finance rates to make
monthly car payments more affordable. The public
transportation index (which includes fares for airlines,
intercity buses and trains, and intracity mass transit)
advanced at a 3.5-percent rate, somewhat less than in
the preceding quarter and far less than earlier in 1981.
The recent declines in fuel prices were a major factor in
this slowdown.
The medical care services component of the CPI
moved up at a rate of 10.4 percent, somewhat less than
in other recent quarters. Charges for physicians’ services
moved up at a 9.7-percent rate, also less than in the
fourth quarter. The index for hospital rooms rose at a
rate of 12.7 percent.
Steel prices steady; gold, silver drop
The Producer Price Index for intermediate materials
except foods and energy edged up at a seasonally ad
justed annual rate of just 0.3 percent in the first quar
ter, compared with a rate of 2.4 percent in the fourth
quarter. The index for durable manufacturing materials
declined at a rate of 7.8 percent, an even larger decrease
than at the end of 1981. Lower prices were recorded for
most nonferrous metals and mill shapes, jewelers’ mate
rials, and hardwood lumber. Steel prices continued to
show virtually no change, as high interest rates both
weakened domestic demand and encouraged a high level
of imports as the dollar rose overseas.
Prices for primary nonferrous metals continued to
move down substantially, although not quite as sharply
as in the fourth quarter. High interest rates and weak
domestic and export markets contributed to the de
creases for these metals. The end of massive support
buying that had kept tin prices artificially high in late
1981 caused prices to drop severely; by March, the tin
index had retreated to virtually the same level as last
summer just before the runup began. Copper prices,
which had declined in most months since late 1980,
were further weakened by high production levels in sev
eral South American and African countries.
Gold and silver prices fell 20.3 and 18.4 percent be
fore annualizing. Among the major reasons for these
steep declines were large sales of gold by Eastern bloc
countries to pay their debts, silver auctions by the Gen
eral Services Administration, and the attraction of highyielding financial investments. Prices for jewelers’ mate
rials plummeted because of falling gold prices.
Hardwood lumber prices turned down partly because
of poor demand from furniture manufacturers resulting
from the weak residential construction market. But
prices rose for foundry and forge shop products, chiefly
because of increased labor and overhead costs.
The nondurable manufacturing materials category
dropped at an annual rate of 3.9 percent, following a
small rise at the end of 1981. Prices for organic chemi
cals continued to recede because of low demand and
strong competition from imports. The depressed hous
ing and automotive industries caused a sharp downturn
in the plastic resins index; prices for these materials had
advanced in almost every month of 1981. An oversup
ply of cotton fabrics, coupled with a drop in domestic
demand, meant lower prices for finished fabrics and
processed yarns. Following several increases in late
1981, leather prices turned down, partly because tan
ners and shoe manufacturers were reluctant to rebuild
inventories.
However, price increases for inorganic chemicals ac
celerated, with prices for caustic soda leading the way.
Demand for caustic soda, particularly from the printing
and publishing industry, remained relatively strong in
spite of the recession. A strengthening in domestic de
mand for gray fabrics and synthetic fibers, especially
nylon yarn, caused these prices to advance. Improved
export demand led to higher prices for fats and oils.
The p p i measure for construction materials and com
ponents showed virtually no change from December to
March, following generally small increases during the
latter part of 1981. The poor state of construction activ
ity permitted only marginal advances for most construc
tion materials. Prices for a number of items, including
plastic construction products, asphalt roofing, concrete
products, and millwork, turned down after rising mod
erately in the closing months of 1981.
At the same time, the reverse was true for prices of
gypsum products, building paper, and plywood. These
prices advanced following declines at the end of the
year, partly reflecting low supplies. Prices for refracto
ries climbed at an unusually rapid pace; recent increases
in charges for natural gas, a crucial element in the pro
duction of refractories, were the principal cause.
Among other intermediate goods, prices for machine
tool parts moved up sharply during the first quarter, as
orders for new machine tools sagged and producers
took advantage of the consequent firming of demand
for replacement parts. Glass container prices moved up
substantially in February and March, after showing
very little change over the preceding 8 months; the in
creases passed through higher natural gas costs. The in
dex for unsupported plastic film and sheeting also rose
sharply, after edging down slightly over the last half of
1981. Prices for wooden pallets, a close indicator of the
state of demand in the industrial sector, continued to
fall, reaching their lowest level since May 1978.
Sensitive crude material prices drop sharply
Producer prices for crude nonfood materials except
energy, which tend to be highly responsive to shifts in
general economic conditions, plunged at a seasonally
adjusted annual rate of 40.3 percent. Prices for alumi
num and copper base scrap and for iron and steel scrap
continued to move down sharply in the first quarter,
largely because of a lack of industrial and construction
demand, weak export markets, and high interest rates.
Wastepaper prices continued to fall, although not as
sharply as in the fourth quarter. By the end of the first
quarter, paper manufacturers had used only a portion
of their wastepaper stockpiles but were purchasing addi
tional supplies because prices were attractively low.
Crude rubber prices, which had fallen through most
of 1981, continued to decline in the first quarter, largely
because of persistent weakness in the automotive and
tire industries. Prices for potash turned down because of
an oversupply of fertilizers, excessive potash inventories,
and a dwindling export market.
However, temporary short supplies of high quality
cotton fibers, coupled with improved Far East and do
mestic demand, led to an upturn in prices for raw cot
ton. Prices for cattle hides also turned up as tanners
began to replenish their inventories, which had been
allowed to decline to unusually low levels.
□
FOOTNOTES
' For a report on the CPI in relation to the PCE Deflator, see Julie
A. Bunn and Jack E. Triplett, “Reconciling the CPI and the PCE De
flator: first quarter 1982,” pp. 37-38.
For details on changing the homeownership component, see Rob
ert Gillingham and Walter Lane, “Changing the treatment of shelter
costs for homeowners in the CPI,” M o n th ly L a b o r R eview , June 1981,
pp. 9-14.
3Under the Natural Gas Policy Act of 1978, higher prices are
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allowed for gas produced from wells drilled since 1978.
4Effective December 23, 1981, the Government raised duties and
fees to bring the price of imported sugar to 19.08 cents per pound, up
from 15 cents. This would eliminate the need for the Government to
stockpile domestic sugar at the support price of 16.75 cents per
pound. However, after an initial sharp increase in price when the duty
was raised, raw sugar prices fell in March to just over the support
price.
9
Clerical pay differentials
in metropolitan areas, 1961-80
Salaries o f office workers generally
are higher in large urban areas
and in the North Central and Western regions;
interarea differences narrowed
in the 1960's and widened in the 1970's
M a r k S. S i e l i n g
In 1980, salaries of office clerical workers varied widely
among 52 areas included in the Bureau of Labor Statis
tics’ area wage survey program. For example, in Daven
port-Rock Island-Moline— the highest paying area—
clerical pay rates averaged about 50 percent more than
those in Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Portsmouth— the low
est paying area. Generally, salaries were higher in larger
areas. The highest salaries were in North Central and
Western areas, followed by Northeastern areas, and
were lowest in Southern areas. Industry mix was an im
portant determinant of an area’s relative pay level.
The pay structure in 1980 resembled the pattern in
1961, although significant developments took place
within this period. During the 1960’s, area differentials
gradually diminished. However, in the 1970’s, the pat
tern reversed, and much of the growing uniformity dis
appeared. These contrasting developments can be
attributed, in part, to the differing economic environ
ments in the two decades. The 1960’s was a period of
almost uninterrupted prosperity, with only moderate
rates of price increases during much of the decade; in
contrast, the 1970’s were characterized by both econom
ic instability and inflationary pressures.
When the areas were ranked by the size of their pay
Mark S. Sieling is an economist in the Office of Wages and Industrial
Relations, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Digitized for
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relatives, the order of ranking in 1980 was similar to
that of 1961. However, pay relatives in some areas
changed substantially over the 20 years, but the changes
generally reflected a cumulation of small year-to-year
adjustments.
Pay levels among areas mirror the interplay of a vari
ety of forces, ranging front nationwide economic devel
opments to factors unique to specific locations.
Moreover, the intensity of these forces may vary over
time, leading to changes in interarea wage relationships.
This article examines salary levels of office clerical
workers in 52 metropolitan areas, highlighting current
pay differences and changes in them over the past two
decades.1 In this analysis, a pay relative is defined as
each area’s average straight-time hourly earnings
expressed as a percent of the average for all metropolis
tan areas combined. For example, a pay relative of 110
indicates that clerical salaries in an area are 10 percent
above the national average. Pay relatives were comput
ed by averaging earnings of selected white-collar clerical
occupations in an area, using national employments as
weights for each job, then dividing the resulting area
average by the corresponding national average. Use of
national occupational employments for weighting pur
poses isolates the pay relatives from the influence of
area differences in occupational composition. In addi
tion, adjustments are made to eliminate the effect of dif
ferences in the timing of individual area surveys.2
Patterns in 1980
Area salary levels are determined by a combination
of factors. Some, such as supply and demand conditions
in the labor market and occupational employment com
position, are unique to an area; others, such as the gen
eral pay level of an industry or the effect of nationwide
collective bargaining, are determined in a broader con
text. Although salary levels are unique to an area, some
grouping of areas according to common characteristics
can be made.
Seven of the eight areas with pay relatives of 106 or
more in 1980 were located in the North Central and
Western regions. (See table 1.) These areas typically had
large concentrations of workers in relatively high-wage
manufacturing industries, such as motor vehicles and
equipment (Detroit and Toledo), aircraft and parts (Los
Angeles, Seattle, and Wichita), and farm machinery
(Davenport). This does not imply that the nonmanufac
turing sector is unimportant in contributing to overall
wage levels. Each of the five areas with overall pay lev
els 11 percent or more above the national average also
had nonmanufacturing pay levels at least 11 percent
above the national nonmanufacturing average.
Of the nine areas with pay relatives of 90 or less, sev
en were in the South and two were in the Northeast.
T a b le 1
The type of manufacturing industries in the area was a
factor for several of these areas. For example, the textile
industries are im portant in Chattanooga and Greenville,
while leather footwear is im portant in Portland (Maine)
and jewelry in Providence.
A relationship is also apparent between salary levels
and the number of employees within a labor market. In
1980, only 11 of the 52 areas had nonagricultural em
ployment of a million or more. Yet, four of them were
among the eight areas with salaries 6 percent or more
above the national average. All of the areas with sala
ries 10 percent or more below the national average had
employment of less than a half million. A summary of
this relationship was developed by calculating a Spear
man rank correlation coefficient, comparing the ranking
of areas by employment and salary levels.3 The coef
ficient, .58, shows a positive relationship, but one that
is far from a perfect correlation of 1. To illustrate that
high employment does not necessarily mean higher sala
ries, Davenport had less than a quarter million workers
in 1980, but had the highest average pay level of all the
areas studied, while Boston and Minneapolis, with more
than a million workers each, had average salaries 4 per
cent below the national average.
Salaries in Boston were also low compared to area
living costs. Living costs, as measured by the BLS au-
O f f ic e c le r ic a l p a y r e la t iv e s , 5 2 S t a n d a r d M e t r o p o lit a n S t a t is t ic a l A r e a s , 1 9 6 1 -8 0
[All metropolitan areas = 100]
Pay relative
Pay relative
Area
Area
1961
1970
Northeast
Albany-Schenectady-Troy, N.Y. . . .
Boston, Mass...................................
Buffalo, N.Y......................................
New York, N.Y.................................
Paterson-Clifton-Passaic, N.J..........
Philadelphia, Pa.-N.J........................
Pittsburgh, Pa...................................
Portland, Maine .............................
Providence-Warwick-Pawtucket,
R.I.-Mass......................................
Trenton, N.J.....................................
Worcester, Mass..............................
York, Pa...........................................
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1970
1980
Chicago, III............................................
Cincinnati, Ohio-Ky.-Ind........................
Cleveland, Ohio .................................
Columbus, O h io .................................
107
98
107
96
105
96
101
95
104
96
101
93
Moline, Iowa-Ill..................................
Dayton, Ohio ......................................
Detroit, Mich.........................................
Indianapolis, Ind....................................
Kansas City, Mo.-Kans.........................
Milwaukee, Wis....................................
Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minn.Wis....................................................
103
106
115
100
98
100
105
103
116
98
96
99
127
93
122
97
99
99
94
96
99
99
106
102
93
91
98
92
106
101
96
94
98
96
108
106
97
97
100
109
100
110
98
111
104
North Central
99
93
101
102
101
100
95
107
84
99
97
100
105
101
99
97
101
86
101
96
97
100
103
93
98
104
90
83
99
91
92
88
97
93
91
86
96
95
91
South
Atlanta, Ga.......................................
Baltimore, Md...................................
Chattanooga, Tenn.-Ga....................
Dailas-Fort Worth, Tex.....................
Greenvllle-Spartanburg, S.C............
Houston, Tex....................................
Jackson, Miss...................................
Jacksonville, Fla...............................
Louisville, Ky.-lnd.............................
Memphis, Tenn.-Ark.-Miss...............
Miami, Fla.........................................
New Orleans, La..............................
Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Portsmouth, Va.-N.C............................
Oklahoma City, Okla.......................
Richmond, Va...................................
San Antonio, Tex..............................
Washington, D.C.-Md.-Va.................
1961
1980
95
94
87
93
80
100
83
87
94
85
90
89
99
97
86
94
85
100
85
90
94
89
93
93
102
105
86
98
85
106
87
90
98
94
97
93
93
88
94
82
99
89
90
91
83
104
83
94
89
84
102
St. Louis, Mo.-lll....................................
South Bend, Ind....................................
Toledo, Ohio-Mich................................
Wichita, Kans........................................
West
Denver-Boulder, Colo...........................
Los Angeles-Long Beach,
Calif..................................................
Portland, Oreg.-Wash...........................
Salt Lake City-Ogden,
Utah ...............................................
San Francisco-Oakland,
Calif..................................................
Seattle-Everett, Wash..........................
91
91
95
109
104
109
105
114
111
11
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW July 1982 • Clerical Pay Differences
tumn 1980 lower budget for a 4-person family,4 are
available for 22 of the areas studied. In 13 of the areas,
living cost relatives (expressed as a percent of the na
tional average for all metropolitan areas) were within 3
percentage points of the area pay relatives. Seven of the
nine areas with differences greater than 3 points— Pitts
burgh, Atlanta, Baltimore, Dallas, Houston, Detroit,
and Los Angeles— had pay relatives that exceeded their
living cost relatives; only Boston and Washington
showed substantial pay disadvantages. A Spearman
rank correlation coefficient of .27 confirms the lack of
significant relation in the ranking of relative salary lev
els and local living costs in the 22 areas.5
Long-term trends, 1961-80
The 1980 pattern of office clerical pay relatives
among areas resembled the 1961 pattern.6 For example,
in both years, Southern areas tended to be lower paying
while Western areas generally were higher paying. Nev
ertheless, in each of the 52 areas, the pay relative
changed over the 1961-80 period. Most often, the
change was small, but some areas did have substantial
changes. Among the larger differences, Dayton’s pay
relative of 106 in 1961 tied with Toledo’s for seventh
place; by 1980, however, Dayton’s relative had de
creased to 93, among the bottom third of all pay rela
tives. At the same time, Davenport’s office pay relative
rose from 103 to 122, moving from ninth to first place.
Changes in pay relatives varied by region. The pay
position of all Western areas and 14 of 17 Southern
areas improved by at least 1 percentage point from
1961 to 1980. By comparison, only 7 of 13 Northeast
ern and 6 of 16 North Central areas experienced such
gains. Similarly, gains of at least 3 percentage points
were proportionately more frequent in the West and
South. The following tabulation shows gains and losses
in pay relatives during the 1961-80 period, by area:
P erce n ta g e
p o in t
ch a n g e
N o r th e a s t
S o u th
2
4
1
—
1
5
4
2
2
—
1
G ain s:
1 o r 2 .............
3 o r 4 .............
5 or 6 .............
7 or 8 .............
9 or m o re . .
L o sses:
9 or m o re . .
7 or 8 .............
5 or 6 .............
3 or 4 .............
1 or 2 .............
—
1
—
3
2
—
1
—
1
N o rth
C e n tra l
3
1
—
W est
1
3
1
1
1
1
—
1
—
—
1
4
4
—
—
—
—
M ajor changes in area pay relatives can generally be
traced to local developments. For example, changes in
an area’s industrial composition may have a marked im
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
pact on its salary levels. To illustrate, the decline of
Dayton’s office clerical pay relative (from 105 in 1973
to 93 in 1980) paralleled a decline in its manufacturing
employment, especially in the rubber goods, household
appliance, and office machinery sectors. These declines
were offset to some extent by an expansion of service
employment; however, the expanding service industries
tended to be lower paying. In contrast, Houston’s office
clerical pay relative rose from 100 in 1970 to 106 in
1980. This gain can be attributed to general economic
expansion, particularly in the energy field and as a site
for corporate headquarters. Nonagricultural employ
ment in Houston nearly doubled over the period.
The increase in Davenport’s office clerical pay relative
(from 103 in 1961 to 127 in 1980) can be traced, in
part, to the combined effects of industrial composition,
unionization, and inflation. A major component of Dav
enport’s economy is farm equipment manufacturing,
traditionally one of the higher paying industry groups.
Most of Davenport’s nonsupervisory plant and office
workers in this industry are unionized; since the early
1970’s, their contracts have included an uncapped costof-living adjustment provision. During the 1970’s, the in
flation rate was relatively high and, hence, these work
ers received relatively large wage gains through cost-ofliving adjustment provisions. Although not all of Dav
enport’s clerical work force obtained cost-of-living in
creases, the gains were sufficiently widespread to influ
ence the area-wide data.
Short-term trends
Concentration on changes in area pay relatives over
the 1961-80 period overlooks the contrasting patterns
of change found in the 1960’s and 1970’s. In the 1960’s,
wages in the relatively low-wage Southern areas slowly
approached the national average, while movement in
other areas was mixed. In the 1970’s, the Southern
wage advances continued. In addition, pay levels in
Davenport, Detroit, and most Western areas rose much
faster than the average for all metropolitan areas com
bined. The average percent difference in pay relatives
among the 52 areas narrowed from 10.0 percent in 1961
to 8.1 percent by 1969; then the pattern reversed, and
the difference expanded to 10.4 percent by 1980.7 The
following tabulation shows the average percent dif
ference among area pay relatives, from 1961 to 1980:
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
...........
...........
...........
...........
...........
...........
...........
...........
...........
...........
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
____
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
10.0
9.9
9.3
9.0
9.0
8.6
8.8
8.4
8.1
8.7
1 9 7 1 ..............
1972 ..............
1973 .............
1974 .............
1975 ..............
1976 .............
1977 ..............
1978 ..............
1979 ..............
1980 ..............
9.0
9.6
9.3
9.3
9.4
9.4
9.6
9.7
9.8
10.4
Table 2. Distribution of year-to-year percentage point changes in office clerical pay relatives, 52 Standard Metropolitan
Statistical Areas, by population size and region, 1961-80
By population
Size of change
All
areas
By region
250.000
to
500.000
500,000
to
1,000,000
1,000,000
or
more
Northeast
South
North
Central
West
Total observations.................................
988
180
247
551
247
323
304
114
1961-80:
No ch an ge.....................................................
1 p o in t............................................................
2 points ..........................................................
3 points ..........................................................
4 points or m o re ............................................
390
433
120
26
19
61
88
28
7
6
94
105
33
7
8
235
240
59
12
5
101
113
24
7
2
130
143
35
10
5
115
131
43
5
10
44
46
18
4
2
Average annual
percentage point change.................................
.9
1.0
.9
.8
.8
.8
.9
.9
1961-70:
No change .....................................................
1 p o in t............................................................
2 points ..........................................................
3 points ..........................................................
4 points or m o re ............................................
204
208
46
9
1
32
45
12
1
—
50
51
10
5
1
122
112
24
3
—
48
61
8
—
—
70
62
14
6
1
60
67
14
3
—
26
18
10
—
—
Average annual
percentage point change.................................
.7
.8
.8
.7
.7
.7
.7
.7
1970-80:
No chan ge.....................................................
1 p o in t............................................................
2 points ..........................................................
3 points ..........................................................
4 points or m o re ............................................
186
225
74
17
18
29
43
16
6
6
44
54
23
2
7
113
128
35
9
5
53
52
16
8
1
60
81
21
4
4
55
64
29
2
10
18
28
8
4
2
Average annual
percentage point change.................................
1.0
1.2
1.1
.9
.9
.9
1.1
1.1
Note:
Changes are computed from pay relatives rounded to the nearest percent. Signs of changes are ignored.
The contrasting behavior of geographic wage differ
entials in the 1960’s and 1970’s is related to the mark
edly different economic conditions in those decades. The
1960’s were essentially a period of economic growth.
The uninterrupted economic expansion from February
1961 to December 1969, was the longest in the Nation’s
history. The unemployment rate— an indicator of slack
in the labor m arket— turned downward, from 6.7 per
cent in 1961 to 3.5 percent in 1969. However, infla
tionary pressures did not surface until the latter half of
the decade: annual increases in the Consumer Price In
dex were below 2 percent through 1965, when they be
gan to rise, reaching 4.7 percent in 1968 and 6.1 percent
in 1969. Amendments to the Fair Labor Standards Act
in 1961 and 1966 raised the Federal minimum wage
from $1 to $1.60 an hour; these adjustments had their
greatest impact in relatively low-paying industries, and
they tended to reduce wage dispersion within and
among labor markets.
On the other hand, the decade of the 1970’s was
characterized by growing economic instability and actu
al or suppressed inflation. Economic recessions began in
December 1969, November 1973, and January 1980.
The unemployment rate rose to 8.5 percent in 1975,
dropped to 5.8 percent in 1979, and then rose again to
7.1 percent in 1980. The inflation rate varied substan
tially: annual increases in the CPI ranged from 3.4 per
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
cent in 1971 and 1972— a period of wage and price
controls— to 12.2 percent in 1974, and 13.3 percent in
1979. As in the prior decade, amendments to the Fair
Labor Standards Act raised the Federal minimum wage
— to $3.10 an hour in January 1980.
Year-to-year changes. For each area studied, the total
change over the 1961-80 period typically reflects the
cumulation of relatively small year-to-year changes.
About 40 percent of the 988 annual comparisons possi
ble over the 19 years studied showed no year-to-year
change in area pay relatives. (See table 2.) A slightly
larger proportion had changes of 1 percentage point.
Less than 2 percent had changes of 4 percentage points
or more. The average year-to-year change in pay rela
tives for all 52 areas was .9 percentage point.
Significantly, the tendency for small average annual
changes in pay relatives appeared in each of the popula
tion size groups examined separately and in each region.
Not surprisingly, the greatest stability of pay relatives
was in areas with 1 million inhabitants or more— the
areas which tend to have the more varied labor mar
kets.
Annual changes in area pay relatives were small in
each decade, but both the size of the average change
and the frequency of relatively large change were dis
tinctly greater in the 1970’s. This finding is consistent
13
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW July 1982 • Clerical Pay Differences
with the tendency, already noted, for a widening of
wage differences among areas in the 1970’s, after a peri
od of contraction during the 1960’s.
T h e w i d e l y d i f f e r i n g salary levels examined here
and their behavior between 1961 and 1980 emphasize
the difficulty of generalizing about the structure and
trends in geographic wage differentials. Area pay rates
respond to many forces that apply unequally across
areas and over time. The findings of this study suggest
areas of future investigation. For example, the year-toyear stability in pay relationships among areas raises
the possibility of using a national survey— over short
time periods— to update local pay data, thereby elimi
nating the need for frequent pay studies in individual
localities. In addition, it would be interesting to deter
mine if the patterns for manual jobs parallel those for
white-collar jobs. Also, a study could focus on average
earnings of specific occupations, rather than on average
pay levels for broad employment groups within areas. □
FOOTNOTES
1This study is based on salary data from the Bureau of Labor Sta
tistics’ area wage survey program. All 52 areas surveyed annually
from 1961 through 1980 are included in the analysis. (Currently,
about 70 areas are surveyed.) The program provides pay estimates for
office clerical; professional and technical; maintenance, toolroom, and
powerplant; and material movement and custodial occupations. How
ever, only office clerical workers are included in this analysis. The
surveys of Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas include estab
lishments employing 50 workers or more in manufacturing; transpor
tation, communication, and other public utilities; wholesale trade;
retail trade; finance, insurance, and real estate; and selected services.
In the 13 largest areas, the minimum is 100 workers in manufactur
ing; transportation, communication, and other public utilities; and re
tail trade.
2Pay relatives are computed annually for the metropolitan areas
currently included in the area wage survey program. They are pro
duced for four occupational groups— office clerical, electronic data
processing, skilled maintenance, and unskilled plant workers. For a
description of the method, as well as data for 1980, see W age D iffer
ences A m o n g M etropolitan Areas, 1980, BLS Summary 81-15, Septem
ber 1981. A companion report, W age D ifferences A m o n g S elected
Areas, 1980, BLS Summary 81-16, October 1981, provides wage com
parisons for three occupational groups among 102 areas surveyed un
der contract to the Employment Standards Administration for use in
administering the Service Contract Act.
3The Spearman coefficient measures the degree of association be
tween two variables based on the ranks (or order) of the observations,
rather than their actual values. A coefficient of + 1 indicates complete
agreement in the order of the ranks while —1 indicates completely
opposite order of the ranks. A coefficient of 0 indicates the absence of
any association between the variables.
14
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
4The lower budget was used in the comparison, because it most
closely approximates expenditure levels consistent with the earnings of
an office clerical worker. If the intermediate budget had been used,
there would have been considerably more variation between relative
wages and living costs, generally with areas in the West doing better
and areas in the Northeast not doing as well. In some cases, the geo
graphic definitions used in the budget studies did not completely cor
respond to those used in the salary level studies. These differences did
not appreciably affect the comparison and, therefore, were ignored in
the analysis. These living cost measurements reflect different consump
tion patterns among areas. For example, in the South a higher pro
portion of the meat consumed is pork than in Northern areas. The
Bureau has conducted research on measuring price variations among
areas assuming standard consumption patterns in all areas. The
standardized consumption patterns, however, had little effect on
interarea differences. See Mark K. Sherwood, “Family budgets and
geographic differences in price levels,” M on th ly L a b o r R eview , April
1975, pp. 8-15.
5An earlier BLS study found a relationship between area wage lev
els and living costs only after pay data were adjusted for differences
in industry mix. See John E. Buckley, “Do area wages reflect area liv
ing costs?” M on th ly L a b o r R eview , November 1979, pp. 24—29.
"The Spearman coefficient comparing 1961 and 1980 rankings of
the 52 areas is .79.
7Average pay differences were computed by subtracting an area’s
pay relative from each higher pay relative; dividing by the lower rela
tive; totaling these differences (expressed in percent), and dividing by
the number of comparisons made. For a further discussion of this
technique, see Mark S. Sieling, “Interpreting pay structures through
matrix application,” M on th ly L a b o r R eview , November 1979, pp. 4145.
How accurate were projections
of the 1980 labor force?
All four Bureau o f Labor Statistics projections,
the first in 1965 and the last in 1976,
were lower than the actual 1980 labor force;
most o f the discrepancy can be attributed to the
underestimation of the participation rates of women
H oward N F ullerton
The final step in the projection process is evaluation.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has always assessed each
of its labor force projections, but only the evaluation of
the 1975 estimates has been published. The 1970 projec
tions were evaluated by Marc Rosenblum of the City
University of New Y ork.1 Both evaluations concluded
that the BLS had underestimated the number of persons
in the labor force, with too many men and too few
women. Rosenblum also concluded that the BLS esti
mate of the 1975 labor force would be too low, based
on a comparison with projections by Alfred Telia and
Thomas F. Dernberg and others.2 Bureau of Labor Sta
tistics economist Paul Ryscavage confirmed the under
estimation of the BLS projections for the 1975 labor
force, finding that an earlier projection, made when the
program was still in the Bureau of the Census, was
more accurate. He also suggested that the projections
for 1980 and 1985 would be too low, primarily because
of underestimation of female labor force growth. All
four of the BLS projections of the 1980 labor force dem
onstrated the same pattern of lower than actual growth;
generally the male labor force was too high and the fe
male labor force was always too low.3
Howard N Fullerton is a demographic statistician in the Office of
Economic Growth and Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor
Statistics.
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Trend, projected, and actual rates
The Bureau of Labor Statistics published four pro
jections of the 1980 labor force.4 They were general
purpose projections prepared using demographic tech
niques. In 1965, BLS projected a 1980 labor force
(including the armed forces) of 100 million; in 1970, of
101 million; in 1973, of 102 million; and, finally, in
1976, of 104 million. (See table 1.) The actual 1980 la
bor force was 107 million (1970 census weights).
Each estimate of the 1980 labor force overprojected
the male labor force and grossly under projected the fe
male labor force. For example, the 1970 projection had
the men’s labor force at 64 million; it totaled 62 million
in 1980. At the same time, the 1970 projection placed
the women’s labor force at 37 million; it reached 45
million in 1980.
The most difficult group to project has been women
age 25 to 34. In 1965, the 1980 labor force participation
rate for these women was projected to be 40.3 percent.
In 1970, the rate was estimated to be 46.5 percent; in
1973, 50.2 percent; and in 1976, 57.3 percent. The rate
turned out to be 65.3 percent in 1980, or 25 percentage
points higher than the 1965 projection.
The next most difficult group to project was women
age 35 to 44. Projection errors ranged from 15.2 per
cent for the 1965 estimate to 7.2 percent for the 1976
estimate.
15
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW July 1982 • 1980 Labor Force Projections Reviewed
The most difficult male labor force group to project
was men 55 to 64. The participation rate projected in
1965 was 12.3 percent too high; however, the 1976 pro
jection missed by only 1.1 percent. For men 25 to 34,
errors ranged from 2.0 percent in the 1965 projection to
—0.1 percent in the 1976 projection.
Generally, more accurate projections are made over a
recent period. But, how would the projections have
fared if they were adjusted for the length of the projec
tion span? To find out, we compared historic, projected,
and actual growth rates. Historic growth rates use the
same number of years back as the projection is forward.
For example, the 1965 projection covered 16 years
(from 1964 to 1980), making 1948 the reference year for
the historic growth rate. The following tabulation
shows the historic and the projected and actual growth
rates of the 1980 labor force:
H isto ric
referen ce
year
1948
1960
1966
1970
Y ea r
p ro jectio n
w as p u b lis h e d
H isto ric
1965
1970
1973
1976
1.25
1.43
2.00
1.97
____
____
____
____
G row th ra te
P ro jec ted
Y ea r
p u b lis h e d
P ro jec ted
ch an ge
A c tu a l
ch an ge
D ifferen ce
(error)
1965
1970
1973
1976
+ 0.48
+ .41
-0 .3 2
-0 .1 6
+ 0.89
.95
.28
.42
-0 .4 1
-.5 4
-.6 0
-.5 8
Participation rates of groups
A c tu a l
2.14
2.38
2.28
2.39
1.73
1.84
1.68
1.81
Both the historic and the actual labor force growth
rates increased between projections, but the projected
growth changed only slightly. In effect, the improve
ment in the projections of the 1980 labor force was due
to the application of the same growth rate to a labor
force that was actually growing faster than anticipated.
A simple extrapolation made on the basis of the historic
growth rate would have increased the accuracy of the
1973 and 1976 projections, but not the 1965 and 1970
projections.5
Table 1.
There was a steady increase in the discrepancy be
tween actual and projected labor force growth. The suc
cessive projected growth rates were less accurate as
1980 approached. The following tabulation presents the
change between the historical growth rate and the pro
jected growth rate (projected change), the change be
tween the historical and actual growth rate (actual
change), and the difference between the two, which is
also the error in the projected growth rate (a plus sign
indicates growth was projected to increase from the his
torical rate; minus indicates that growth was projected
to decrease):
How accurate were the projections for individual agesex groups? Among individual groups, some differences
between projected and actual rates leap out; for exam
ple those for women age 25 to 34 for all four projec
tions. However, the median of all the differences
between the actual and projected rates was zero— the
median for men was 1.2 percentage points and for
women, -6.0. This was expected because the rates for
men have been dropping while those for women have
been rising rapidly.
The range of differences between actual and projected
participation rates for women was very large. Usual
methods for detecting unusually large values, or outli
ers, detected none. Combining the differences for male
The 1980 labor force and participation rates, actual and as projected in 1965, 1970, 1973, and 1976
Labor force (in thousands)
as projected in —
Age
1965
Participation rates as
projected in —
Actual
1980’
1970
1973’
19761
Difference
Actual
1980'
1965
1970
19731
19761
1965
1970
1973’
1976’
T o ta l...............................................
99,942
100,727
101,809
103,759
106,821
60.4
60.5
60.8
61.6
63.3
-2.9
-2.8
-2.5
-1.7
Men, total .................................................
16 to 1 9 .................................................
20 to 2 4 .................................................
25 to 3 4 .................................................
35 to 4 4 .................................................
45 to 5 4 .................................................
55 to 6 4 .................................................
65 and over ..........................................
64,061
4,824
9,064
17,590
12,084
10,219
8,184
2,096
63,612
4,895
8,795
17,815
12,086
10,082
7,849
2,090
62,590
4,668
8,852
17,523
11,851
9,908
7,730
2,058
61,988
5,239
8,852
16,925
11,878
9,929
7,275
1,890
62,088
5,191
9,022
16,943
11,901
9,989
7,165
1,877
80.3
56.7
87.2
96.2
96.7
95.0
83.7
21.8
79.2
56.7
83.0
96.0
96.1
94.0
80.5
22.0
78.0
56.0
83.0
94.6
95.1
91.6
79.1
21.2
76.8
61.8
84.1
94.1
94.6
90.0
72.5
18.7
76.8
61.2
85.7
94.2
94.6
90.3
71.4
18.3
3.5
-4 .5
1.5
2.0
2.1
4.7
12.3
3.5
2.4
-4.5
-2 .7
1.8
1.5
3.7
9.1
3.7
1.2
-5.2
-2.7
0.4
0.5
1.3
7.7
2.9
0.6
-1 .6
-0.1
0.0
-0 .3
1.1
0.4
Women, total ............................................
16 to 1 9 .................................................
20 to 2 4 .................................................
25 to 3 4 .................................................
35 to 4 4 .................................................
45 to 5 4 .................................................
55 to 6 4 .................................................
65 and over ..........................................
35,881
3,286
5,380
7,347
6,386
6,805
5,337
1,340
37,115
3,449
5,991
8,427
6,708
6,259
5,103
1,178
39,219
3,669
6,592
9,250
6,869
6,537
5,057
1,239
41,771
4,246
7,116
10,417
7,638
6,609
4,628
1,737
44,733
4,358
7,170
11,890
8,605
6,973
4,591
1,144
41.9
46.6
52.6
40.3
50.0
59.5
47.3
9.9
43.0
41.0
57.7
46.5
53.3
55.2
45.0
8.5
45.0
45.5
63.4
50.2
53.2
56.2
44.7
8.6
47.7
44.6
68.4
57.3
58.0
56.6
45.6
11.7
50.9
53.0
69.0
65.3
65.2
59.6
41.1
7.6
-9 .0
-6.4
-16.4
-25.0
-15.2
-0.1
6.2
2.3
-7 .9
-12.0
-11.3
-18.8
-11.9
-4.4
3.9
0.9
-5 .9
-7 .5
-5 .6
-15.1
-12.0
-3.4
3.6
1.0
-3 .2
-8.4
-0 .6
-8 .0
-7 .2
-3 .0
4.5
4.1
1Middle scenarios.
2The 1980 labor force data are based on 1970 census weights.
Note: Differences with negative values were projected less than actual; those with a positive value were projected higher than actual.
16
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0.0
and female rates does detect some outliers. The rates
projected in 1965 and 1970 for women age 25 to 34
were underprojected by 25.0 and 18.8 percent. This
group also had the greatest change in labor force partic
ipation over the period. One questions if a projected
rise in participation of more than 25 percentage points
would have been credible in 1965. The changes affecting
labor force participation of women— fewer births, fewer
marriages, unprecedented inflation, more education— af
fected women in the 25 to 44 age group the most.
Labor force composition. The projected labor force com
position (age-sex structure) is of concern to those using
the projections for equal opportunity purposes or for
some types of market research. Table 2 shows the pro
jected and actual distribution of the labor force. The ac
tual and projected labor force participation rates for all
four projections are illustrated in chart 1. If the projec
tions were perfect, they would be plotted on a straight
line with a slope of one (an angle of 45 degrees) going
through the origin, which is the line of perfect projec
tion.6 When the four projections are combined, our
hypothesis that the actual and projected fall on the line
of perfect projection, or that the composition was cor
rectly projected is rejected. The implication is that the
composition of the labor force was poorly projected.
The bars on chart 1 show the means of the actual
and projected labor force rates; if the bars were on the
line of perfect fit, there would be no bias in the projec
tion. The fit of projected against actual always goes
through the point where the two means cross. If the
slope of this line is different from the line of perfect fit,
the composition has not been accurately projected. If
the line is parallel to the line of perfect fit, then it is bi
ased. On the other hand, if the projection is unbiased
but the trend has not been accurately projected, the
projection line will cross the line of perfect fit where the
means cross on the line of perfect forecast.
Assumptions and realities
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ labor force projec
tions have been based on past trends of labor force ac
tivity extended forward to particular “target” years.
The extrapolated rates (modified when necessary) are
then applied to population levels projected by the Bu
reau of the Census, producing projected labor force lev
els.
This general approach is essentially supply oriented.
Because of this orientation, the characteristics which re
ceived the most attention from the analysts were the
impact of marital status and the presence of children on
the labor force activity of women and the impact of
school enrollment on the participation of younger work
ers. For example, the analysts who prepared the 1965
and 1970 projections considered work and childrearing
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Table 2. Distribution of the 1980 labor force, actual and
as projected in 1965, 1970, 1973, and 1976__________ _ _
Projected in
Age
Men, to ta l......................
16 to 19 ....................
20 to 24 ....................
25 to 34 ....................
35 to 44 ....................
45 to 54 ....................
55 to 64 ....................
65 and over .............
Women, total ...............
16 to 19 ....................
20 to 24 ....................
25 to 34 ....................
35 to 44 ....................
45 to 54 ....................
55 to 64 ....................
65 and over .............
1965 1970 1973 1976
1965 1970 19731 19761
64.1
4.8
9.1
17.6
12.1
10.2
8.2
2.1
35.9
3.3
5.4
7.4
6.4
6.8
5.3
1.3
63.2
4.9
8.7
17.7
12.0
10.0
7.8
2.1
36.8
3.4
5.9
8.4
6.7
6.2
5.1
1.2
61.5
4.6
8.7
17.2
11.6
9.7
7.6
2.0
38.5
3.6
6.5
9.1
6.7
6.4
5.0
1.2
Difference
Actual
59.7
5.0
8.5
16.3
11.4
9.6
7.0
1.8
40.3
4.1
6.9
10.0
7.4
6.4
4.5
1.7
5.0
3.4
58.1
4.9
8.4
15.9
11.1
9.4
6.7
1.8
6.0
-0.1
0.6
1.7
0.9
0.9
1.5
0.3
0.3
1.8
0.9
0.7
1.1
0.3
0.2
1.4
0.5
0.4
0.9
0.2
41.9
4.1
6.7
11.1
8.1
6.5
4.3
1.1
-6 .0 -5 .0
-0.8 -0.7
-1.3 -0.8
-3.8 -2.8
-1 .7 -1.4
0.3 -0 .3
0.8
1.0
0.1
0.3
-3.4
-0 .5
-0.2
-2 .0
-1.3
-0.1
0.7
0.1
0.0 -0.3
1.6
0.2
0.1
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.0
-1 .6
0.0
0.1
-1.1
-0.7
-0.2
0.2
0.6
1Middle scenarios.
2The 1980 labor force data are based on 1970 census weights.
uncompatible roles. The analysts who prepared the
1973 projections felt that the rapid changes in participa
tion rates would not continue; the analyst who prepared
the 1976 projection allowed the rapid changes in female
participation rates to continue.7
It will be helpful to review the changes in marital sta
tus, presence of children, and educational attainment
that have occurred since 1965. While such a discussion
will not explain the projection errors, it will indicate
whether the underlying supply assumptions of the four
BLS projections were met.8
Fertility. Births, which peaked in 1958 with a total fer
tility rate of 3.8 children per woman, dropped during
the 1960’s, turned up slightly at the end of the decade,
and then dropped until 1976, when fertility rates were
below those of the Great Depression. Since then, the
njite has risen slowly. The decline in fertility was not an
ticipated and is an im portant factor in the under
projection of the labor force activity of women. The
negative relationship between fertility and participation
lessened, which also was not anticipated. These assump
tions by the BLS projectionists were not different from
those of other projectionists.
Three points should be remembered when considering
the effect of fertility on the labor force status of women.
First, the total fertility rate— the sum of the birth rates
in a year by specific age groups— overstates the actual
changes. That is, no cohort of women averaged 3.8 chil
dren, nor does it appear likely that the average will
drop to 1.7 children. The changes in fertility were ac
complished by shifting both the timing of marrying and
of giving birth.9 It appears that 20 to 30 percent of re
cent generations of women will not have children.10 Sec
ond, the direction of causality between births and labor
force activity is ambiguous. Both are affected by similar
17
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW July 1982 • 1980 Labor Force Projections Reviewed
factors, such as education, inflation, and the changing
social expectation. Increased labor force participation
may induce tastes that are incompatible with mother
hood. Third, there is a direct effect on labor force par
ticipation in that childbirth generally results in the
mother withdrawing from the labor force, even if for a
short time.
M arital status. The changing marital status of the popu
lation also affected the growth of the labor force. Not
as many married women lived in traditional (spouse
present) households.
There was a small, 3-percent annual change in the
proportion of married women over the 15-year-period,
but if applied to the 87 million women in 1980 who
Chart 1. Labor force participation rates for 1980, actual and projected in 1965, 1970, 1973, and 1976
Actual
18
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Actual
were 16 or older, it amounts to almost 3 million fewer
married women. This shift in the proportion of married
women resulted in a greater number of women in the
labor force, and was reinforced by the increase in the
participation rates of married women. The drop in the
proportion of married women reflects the “marriage
squeeze,” the increased divorce rate, and the postpone
ment of marriage. (Marriage squeeze refers to the joint
effect of increasing births and the marriage of women to
men about 2 years older. About 20 years after the peri
od of increasing births, there would be fewer men than
women of marriageable age.) These factors also lowered
the birth rate and the proportion of women with young
children.
Parental status. As the proportion of women with
young children dropped (as the lower fertility rates im
plied), their share of the labor force rose. The 1965 pro
jection did not assume growth in the labor force
participation of mothers of young children and also did
not expect births to drop to such a low level. The 1970
projection also did not explicitly include these assump
tions. The 1973 and the 1976 projections attempted to
project the number of women with young children by
using the current population projections of births. How
ever, both projections overestimated the proportion of
mothers of young children and, thus, underprojected
the growth of the labor force. The implicit assumption
in each projection of the size of the negative relation
ship between the presence of young children and the la
bor force activity of their mothers was another factor in
the underprojection of the labor force activity of women
with young children. In addition, it is more difficult to
project marital and parental status than labor force sta
tus.
Education. American workers steadily increased their
years of formal schooling between 1965 and 1980. This
behavior was explicitly modeled in the 1965 and 1970
projections and implicitly assumed in the 1973 and
1976 projections. As education increases, the labor
force participation of women also increases."
change. Thus, the rapid price changes of recent years
probably contributed to the larger than anticipated la
bor force growth.
To summarize the assumed versus actual experiences
affecting the 1980 labor force, fertility was lower than
anticipated, resulting in higher female participation than
projected; the lesser rate of withdrawal by women to
tend young children also meant higher participation.
The proportion of women living with their spouses
dropped, which would tend to make female participa
tion rise. We cannot evaluate how well this was antici
pated in 1965 because of data limitations; since 1970, it
has not been formally a part of the “model.” The num
ber of years of schooling completed rose and, for wom
en, so did participation.13Finally, the unprecedented rise
in inflation was not anticipated and probably resulted in
more wives actively seeking work.
Comparison with other projections
In 1977, Data Resources, Inc., projected that the ci
vilian labor force would increase to 102,500,000 in
1980, or 1.95 percent per year.14 By comparison, in
1976, BLS projected a civilian labor force of 101,600,000
in 1980, a growth rate of 1.86 percent per year. The
1980 labor force was 104,700,000, a 2.46-percent
growth rate.
Data Resources projection had a somewhat smaller
error ( —.51 percent) than the BLS projection ( —.60 per
cent), and, of course, was made a year later. Table 3
compares the projected civilian labor force rates of
Data Resources and BLS.
Overall, BLS did slightly better at projecting 1980
participation rates than did Data Resources; the mean
of the absolute values of the deviations is 2.0 for BLS
and 2.5 for Data Resources. Both were good at project
ing male rates, but Data Resources was superior at pro
jecting female rates. Interestingly, Data Resources was
Table 3. Comparison of Data Resources and BLS
projections of 1980 civilian labor force participation rates
[In percent]
Inflation. Price changes affect many aspects of economic
and social life and, thus, would be expected to have
some effect upon labor force activity. Certainly, the pro
jectionists made no explicit assumptions about the rate
of price increase, but its effect on participation has been
explored by many.12 Valerie K. Oppenheimer suggested
that wives participate more actively in the labor force to
maintain family spending because real earnings of the
husband remain constant while the family life-cycle re
quires increasing real income. James E. Duggan found
that increased participation of wives is partly caused by
the uncertainty engendered by rapid rates of price
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Errors
Projection
Age
Actual
Data
Resources
BLS
43.8
62.1
69.0
65.4
65.5
59.9
1.5
.4
-.7
-3 .0
-5.4
-4 .2
-0 .7
-2.1
- .6
-8 .0
-7 .2
-2 .8
50.1
71.5
86.0
95.3
95.5
91.2
.2
-5 .0
-4.4
-2.2
-1 .5
-1.3
.5
0
-1.8
-.1
0
0
Data
Resources
BLS
Women:
16 to 1 7 ...............
18 to 1 9 ...............
20 to 2 4 ...............
25 to 3 4 ...............
35 to 44 ...............
45 to 5 4 ...............
45.3
62.5
69.7
62.4
60.1
55.7
43.1
60.0
68.4
57.4
58.3
57.1
Men:
16 to
18 to
20 to
25 to
35 to
45 to
1 7 ...............
1 9 ...............
2 4 ................
3 4 ...............
44 ...............
54 ...............
50.3
66.5
81.6
93.1
94.0
89.9
50.6
71.5
84.2
95.2
95.5
91.2
Note:
These rates do not reflect any adjustment for the 1980 census.
19
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW July 1982 • 1980 Labor Force Projections Renewed
much better at projecting rates for women age 25 to 34
(estimating rates for this age group has always been dif
ficult for b l s ). Also, Data Resources’ worst projection,
that for women age 35 to 44 years, was still better than
any of the BLS projection rates for women. Among
women, only for those age 16 and 17, and 45 to 54, did
BLS have lower projection errors than Data Resources.
Among men, the Data Resources projection was better
than the BLS projection only for those 16 to 17 years.
The feat of projecting some of the rates for men exactly
should be discounted, indeed the Data Resources error
of 0.2 percentage point should be considered equivalent
to an exact projection. In general, the superior projec
tion made by one projecting group for a sex was offset
by the errors made in projecting rates for the other
group.
Guidelines for users
The labor force projections are prepared for a variety
of users. Within the Bureau of Labor Statistics, they are
an input into the employment, output, and occupational
projections; they are also used in employment and
training policy development, in market research, in
equal employment opportunity work, and by many
States as inputs into State labor force and population
projections.15 It is not clear what level of accuracy is
satisfactory— we presented several measures of errors;
the user of the projections should select the measure
most relevant to the specific application.
There are occasions when the levels or accuracy de
scribed here are not sufficient (for example, when the
range of uncertainty exceeds the usual levels of unem
ployment).
If the projections are to be used in simulations con
cerning unemployment, they should be used with great
caution. Nathan Keyfitz commented that the errors in
population projections over a 20-year span are suffi
ciently wide as to limit their usefulness; labor force pro
jections are even more constrained.16
Most users tolerate a lower accuracy in long-run than
in short-run projections because of their different pur
poses, and because decisions based on long-run projec
tions can be revised or shifted over time. For example,
the decision to build or to not build a sewage treatment
facility does not depend on the accuracy of the popula
tion projected for a locality, but rather on the likeli
hood of the population exceeding a specific number. If
the facility is built and the population does exceed the
threshold number, then the projection was useful even if
it was not accurate.17
If the future labor force could be determined with no
error, it would not be necessary to revise projections.
Four comments should be helpful. First, at the time
each of the four projections was made the assumptions
about the future of the labor force were reasonable. Sec
ond, none of the projections has any turning points; it
is quite likely that some of the labor force series will in
deed change direction. Third, as Henri Theil points out,
projections must at some place in their structure hold
change constant, whether it is the level of net migration
or the rate of change; this has the effect of under
estimating the amount of change.18 Further Jacob Minc
er and Victor Zarnowitz say that it is harder to project
a rising level of activity.19 These tendencies results in
overestimate of the level of men’s labor force activity—
and underestimate of the activity of women. The rela
tive sizes of the two components of the labor force is
more poorly projected.
□
FOOTNOTES
' Marc Rosenblum, “On the accuracy of labor force projections,”
M o n th ly L a b o r Review , October 1972, p. 22-29.
2Alfred Telia, “Labor Force Sensitivity to Employment by
Age, Sex,” In d u stria l R elations, February 1965; and Thomas F.
Dernberg, Kenneth Strand, and Judith Dukler, “A Parametric Ap
proach to Labor Force Projection,” In d u stria l Relations, October
1966.
3Labor force projections are used in preparing employment, output,
and occupational projections. The Bureau’s occupational projections
for 1980 are evaluated by Max L. Carey and Kevin Kasunic, in
“Evaluating the 1980 projection of occupational employment," M on th
ly L a b o r Review, this issue, pp. 22-30,
4 See the following M o n th ly L a b o r R eview articles: Sophia Cooper
and Denis F. Johnston, “Labor Force Projections for 1970-80,” Feb
ruary 1965, p. 129-39 (reprinted as Special Labor Force Report 49);
Sophia Cooper Travis, “The U.S. labor force; projections to 1985,”
May 1970, pp. 3-12 (reprinted as Special Labor Force Report 119);
Denis F. Johnston, “The U.S. labor force: projections to 1990,” July
1973, pp. 3-13 (reprinted as Special Labor Force Report 156); and
Howard N Fullerton and P.O. Flaim, “New labor force projections to
1990,” December 1976, pp. 3-13 (reprinted as Special Labor Force
Report 197).
20
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5Michael A. Stoto, “The Accuracy of Population Projections”
(Laxenburg, Austria, International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis, 1979). Stoto also found that over the first 10 years of a pop
ulation projection, the naive extrapolation method was more accurate
than other methods.
6 For more information on this type of comparison, see Henri Theil,
E conom ic Forecasts a n d P olicy (Amsterdam, North-Holland Publish
ing Co., 1965), and A p p lied E conom etric F orecasting (Chicago, RandMcNally and Co., 1966).
The 1965, 1973, and 1976 projections each looked at specific pop
ulation groups (for example, mothers of young children), thus, it
should be possible to partition the error in the labor force projection
into that due to the size of a specific group and that due to the pro
jection of labor force rate. However, the archives for the labor force
projections are not available, and we can only look at the overall er
ror for the major group.
8
Only 1965 projections considered the effects of a drop in the un
employment rate (to 3 percent); it concluded that for every 3 jobs
created 2 would be filled by the unemployed and one by new labor
force entrants. Attempts to prove the effect symmetric were unsuc
cessful, so it is not possible to conclude what effect the higher unem
ployment rate would have had on the labor force.
9Arthur A. Campbell, “Beyond the Demographic Transition,” D e
m ography, 1974, pp. 549-61; and “Baby Boom to Birth Dearth and
Beyond,” Annals, American Academy of Political and Social Sciences,
January 1978, pp. 40-60.
10David E. Bloom, “What’s Happening to the Age at First Birth in
the United States? A Study of Recent White and Nonwhite Cohorts,”
a paper presented at the 1981 meetings of the Population Association
of America.
" Although increases in educational attainment of the population
were considered in making labor force projections, the Bureau’s two
projections of the educational attainment of the labor force were
made by forcing the overall labor force projections to the Census Bu
reau’s educational attainment projection for the population.
12See, for example, Valerie K. Oppenheimer, “The Life-Cycle
Squeeze: The Interaction of Men’s Occupational and Family Life Cy
cles,” D em ography, 1974, pp. 227-45; James E. Duggan, “Inflation,
uncertainty, and labor force participation,” Bureau of Labor Statis
tics, 1979; and “The Labor Supply of Married Persons: Evidence
From the Current Population Survey,” Bureau of Labor Statistics,
1981.
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13Reasons for the decrease in male participation rates are not ex
plored in this article. For an analysis, see William V. Deutermann,
Jr., “Another look at working-age men who are not in the labor
force,” M o n th ly L a b o r R eview , June 1977, pp. 9-14.
'“James Yrshus and Roger Brinner, “Labor force growth to 1990:
The impact of changing social roles,” D R I L ong T erm R eview , Winter
1977, pp. 92-100.
15 See Ronald E. Kutscher, “New economic projections through
1990— an overview,” M o n th ly L a b o r R eview , April 1979, pp. 9-17.
16Nathan Keyfitz, “The Limits of Population Forecasting,” P opula
tion a n d D evelopm ents R eview , December 1981, pp. 579-93.
17 Nathan Keyfitz, A pp lied M a th em a tica l D em ography (New York,
John Wiley and Sons, 1977).
18 Henri Theil, A pp lied E conom etric Forecasting.
19Jacob Mincer, and Victor Zarnowitz, “The Evaluation of Eco
nomic Forecasts,” in Jacob Mincer, ed, E conom ic Forecasts a n d E x
pectations; A nalysis o f F orecasting B ehavior a n d Perform ance (New
York, National Bureau of Economic Research, Columbia University
Press, 1969), pp. 3-46.
A note on communications
The Monthly Labor Review welcomes communications that supple
ment, challenge, or expand on research published in its pages. To be
considered for publication, communications should be factual and an
alytical, not polemical in tone. Communications should be addressed
to the Editor-in-Chief, Monthly Labor Review, Bureau of Labor Statis
tics, U.S. Department of Labor, Washington, D.C. 20212.
21
Evaluating the 1980 projections
of occupational employment
Job projections prepared by BLS in 1970
proved slightly less accurate than estimates
for 1965-75; classification changes again
restricted comparability, permitting analysis
o f fewer than half o f 160 occupations
Max L. Carey
and
K evin K asunic
How reliable were the 1980 occupational employment
projections? The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ estimates
were on target for professional and service occupations,
the two fastest growing occupational groups between
1970 and 1980.1The projections were fairly accurate for
farm, craft, clerical, and sales occupations. For the re
maining three major occupational groups, BLS projec
tions missed the mark by significant margins. BLS
underestimated employment growth for managerial and
administrative occupations and for nonfarm laborers,
while overestimating employment in operative occupa
tions.
Among individual occupations, the projections
proved accurate for optometrists, physicians, veterinari
ans, elementary schoolteachers, police, and welders. Op
portunities for lawyers and psychologists grew faster
than anticipated. In a seeming anomaly of the im
pending “cashless society,” cashiers and bank tellers
could count on many more jobs than BLS projected,
while the number of credit managers was less than an
ticipated.
As expected, projections for specific occupations were
less accurate than for the major occupational groups.
Despite some refinements, the 1980 projections were not
quite as accurate as the 1975 estimates, which also
spanned 10 years.2
Max L. Carey and Kevin Kasunic are labor economists in the Divi
sion of Occupational Outlook, Office of Economic Growth and Em
ployment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Digitized 22
for FRASER
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In evaluating the 1980 projections, comparability
again proved to be a major problem. Fewer than half of
the detailed occupations studied in the base year could
be evaluated, specifically, only 64 of 160 occupations.
Results by occupational group
Among the nine major occupational groups, projec
tion errors were relatively large for nonfarm laborers,
managers and administrators, and operatives. The num
ber of nonfarm laborers employed in 1980 was under
projected by 17 percent, and the number of managers
and administrators, by 13 percent. (See table 1.) By
contrast, operative employment was overprojected by
11.8 percent. The average of the absolute percentage er
rors for all groups was 6.7 percent.
The direction of employment change was not correct
ly anticipated for nonfarm laborers and operatives. The
number of nonfarm laborers was projected to be 3.7
million in 1980, or about 1 percent lower than the 1970
level. Instead of declining, employment in this group in
creased to almost 4.5 million. This projection was prob
ably influenced by the trend of the 1960’s, when
employment remained at about the same level. Con
versely, operative employment was projected to rise
from 13.9 million in 1970 to 15.4 million in 1980, but
declined to 13.8 million. The 1.6-million overestimate of
operatives was the largest error in number for a major
occupational group. Operative employment is concen
trated in manufacturing industries, which are sensitive
to economic fluctuations. After recovering from the re-
cession of the mid-1970’s, operative employment had
grown steadily and might have reached the projected
level if the economy had continued to improve. Em
ployment was at 14.5 million in 1979. The direction of
employment change was correctly anticipated for man
agers and administrators, but employment grew twice
as rapidly as projected, resulting in a 1.4-million under
estimate of the 10.9 million employed in 1980. The pro
jection of managers was probably influenced by the
employment trend in 1962-67, when employment only
grew from 7.4 million to 7.5 million, with very little
fluctuation during that period.
Projection errors in the remaining groups were com
paratively small. Differences between projected and ac
tual employment levels ranged from less than 1 percent
for professional and technical workers and service
workers to 6.7 percent for salesworkers. Moreover, the
projected and actual amounts of change were very close
in some occupations. The estimated increase in profes
sional and technical workers was only 2.5 percent lower
than the approximately 4.5-million increase that oc
curred, and the estimated growth in service workers was
only 3.1 percent greater than the actual increase of 3.2
million. The projections correctly identified the profes
sional and technical workers, service workers, and cleri
cal workers as the three fastest growing groups.
Results by specific occupation
Differences between projected and actual employment
in the 64 detailed occupations ranged from an underes
timate of 47 percent for psychologists to an overesti
mate of 89 percent for locomotive engineers’ helpers.
(See table 2.) The absolute percentage errors for all 64
occupations averaged 22.4 percent. About one-half of
the occupations had errors lower than the average. Ab
solute errors ranged from a 444,000-underestimate of
cashier employment in the target year to a 181,000overestimate of telephone operators.
Employment was overprojected in slightly more than
one-half of the occupations; on average, by 25.8 per
Table 1.
cent. Among the occupations in which employment was
overstated by more than 50 percent were photoengrav
ers and lithographers, patternmakers, airplane mechan
ics, telephone operators, and credit managers. Employ
ment was underprojected in almost one-half of the
occupations. The average underestimate was 19.5 per
cent. Employment in several occupations was underpro
jected by more than 30 percent, including cooks, bar
tenders, bank tellers, lawyers, and roofers.
The occupational estimates are products of the pro
jections of industry employment and of industry-occu
pational staffing patterns. Many of the largest errors
resulted primarily from misestimates of industry-occu
pational staffing patterns. The decline in the ratio of
telephone operators to total employment in the tele
phone industry, for example, was greater than anticipat
ed, and consequently the demand for workers in this
occupation was overprojected. Staffing pattern estimates
also led to large errors in the projections for locomotive
engineers’ helpers, psychologists, credit managers, law
yers, and roofers. Misestimates of industry employment
totals, rather than industry staffing patterns, were the
primary causes of large errors for some occupations.
The banking industry, for example, grew much more
rapidly than expected, resulting in an underprojection
of the demand for bank tellers. Projection errors for
cooks, bartenders, and aircraft mechanics also were
largely a result of poor projections for the industries in
which these workers were concentrated.
Size makes a difference
Projection accuracy was related to size of employ
ment. When weighted by employment in each occupa
tion, the average absolute error drops from 22.4 percent
to 14.1 percent, indicating that the largest occupations
generally had the more accurate projections. Relatively
accurate projections for the following three categories,
each with more than 1 million workers in 1980, contrib
uted substantially to the improved results: blue-collar
supervisors; elementary schoolteachers; and stenogra-
Comparison of projected employment and actual employment in major occupational groups, 1970-80
[Workers in thousands}
Percent change
1980
Professional and technical w o rk e rs...............................
Managers and administrators ........................................
N ote:
78,627
11,140
8,289
4,854
13,715
10,158
13,909
3,724
9,712
3,126
Difference between
projected and actual
Projected
Actual
Projected
Actual
Level
Percent
95,085
15,500
9,500
5,760
17,285
12,240
15,440
3,700
13,060
2,600
97,270
15,613
10,919
6,172
18,105
12,529
13,814
4,456
12,958
2,704
20.9
39.1
14.6
18.7
26.0
20.5
11.0
-0 .6
34.5
-16.8
23.7
40.2
31.7
27.2
32.0
23.3
-0 .7
19.7
33.4
-13.5
-2,185
-113
-1,419
-4 1 2
-820
-289
1,626
-756
102
-104
-2 .2
-0 .7
-13.0
-6 .7
-4 .5
-2 .3
11.8
-17.0
0.8
-3 .9
----------;-----
Individual items may not add to totals because of rounding. Percent differences are based on unrounded numbers.
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23
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW July 1982 • Evaluating Occupational Employment Projections
phers, typists, and secretaries. Sampling errors for Cur
rent Population Survey estimates diminish relatively as
employment size increases, so the long-run data for
large occupations would be expected to provide more
reliable trends to use in the projections:
N um ber o f
occu p a tio n s
A vera g e a b so lu te
p e r c e n t e rro r
......................
64
2 2 .4
L ess th a n 5 0 ,0 0 0 .............
5 0 ,0 0 0 to 9 9 ,9 9 9 .............
1 0 0 ,0 0 0 to 2 9 9 ,9 9 9 . . . .
3 0 0 ,0 0 0 to 5 9 9 ,9 9 9 . . . .
6 0 0 ,0 0 0 a n d m o re . . . .
18
9
14
11
12
29.5
2 4 .9
26.3
17.2
10.1
N u m b e r o f w ork ers
T o ta l
The direction of employment change between 1970
and 1980 was correctly anticipated for 50 of the 64 de
tailed occupations. Again, results were better in the
larger fields of employment. Less than one-sixth of the
occupations with more than 50,000 workers in 1970 had
projections that were in the wrong direction, compared
with more than one-third of the smaller fields. Some of
the differences, however, between projected increases
and actual declines, or vice versa, were relatively small.
For each occupation in which the direction of em
ployment change was correctly anticipated, the percent
age of the actual change accounted for by the
projection was computed. In about two-thirds of the
occupations the projections underestimated the employ
ment change. In the remaining occupations, the projec
tions overestimated the change.
Employment grew in 46 of the occupations between
1970 and 1980 and declined in the remaining 18. In
creases were estimated more accurately than decreases.
Projections of growth averaged an absolute 16.1 percent
off actual employment, while those of loss averaged 38.4
percent off. Employment in two-thirds of growing occu
pations was underestimated. All employment declines
either were underestimated or not foreseen at all.
The direction of employment change was correctly
anticipated for all but two of the growing occupations.
The number of elementary schoolteachers increased by
about 4 percent, instead of declining by 0.9 percent.
Jewelers and watchmakers increased more than 37 per
cent, against a projected 0.9-percent decline.
Occupations with the most rapid growth had the
largest projection errors. Projected 1980 levels for those
with employment increases of more than 50 percent be
tween 1970 and 1980 averaged 30.1 percent off actual
1980 levels. Projection errors averaged only 9.4 percent
for occupations with slower growth. Target-year em
ployment usually was underestimated in the fastestgrowing occupations and overestimated in those with
the slowest growth. Projections were lower than actual
levels in the 15 fastest-growing occupations and higher
than actual in 12 of the 15 with the slowest increases.
24
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Decreases were not anticipated in 12 of the 18 occu
pations that declined in employment. The projections
correctly identified weaver, knitter, compositor and
typesetter, locomotive engineer’s helper, railroad con
ductor, and brake and switch operator as occupations
which would decline in employment, although the rate
of decrease was generally underestimated.
Testing for accuracy
One way to judge the accuracy of an occupational
employment projection is to determine whether the pro
jection or the base-year employment is closer to the tar
get-year employment. In 45 of the 64 occupations, the
projections were closer to the target than base-year em
ployment. In the remaining 19 occupations, the projec
tions either were in the wrong direction or overstated
the employment growth by wide margins. Another way
to judge projections is to compare them with the results
obtained from simple alternative methods. Extrapola
tions of employment data by simple linear regression
would have been an inexpensive and easy way of pro
jecting. Extrapolations based on this simple method
were more accurate than the projections for 46 of the
64 occupations.3 Several of the extrapolations, however,
missed targets by wide margins, which resulted in a
slightly lower weighted error for the projections. The
weighted absolute average error was 15.1 percent for
the extrapolations, compared to 14.1 percent for the
projections. Unweighted errors were about the same for
both methods.
The evaluation has focused on differences between
projected and actual employment levels, rather than dif
ferences between actual and projected employment
changes. Generally, occupations with accurately project
ed levels also were accurate in terms of the proportion
of actual change that was estimated. Comparisons of
levels, however, have a conservative bias in that projec
tions for occupations which have relatively little em
ployment change tend to get better marks than those
which have the most change, as demonstrated in the
following occupations. Employment of psychologists
was projected to increase from 33,200 in 1970 to 56,000
in 1980, but actually rose to 106,000, which means that
target-year employment was underestimated by 47.2
percent. In contrast, the number of cabinetmakers was
projected to increase from 70,000 to 72,700, but rose to
85,000, resulting in an underestimate of 14.5 percent. In
terms of the difference between projected and actual
employment levels, the projection for cabinetmakers is
by far the better of the two. The projection for psycholo
gists, however, accounted for about 31 percent of the
employment increase that occurred, while the one for
cabinetmakers accounted for only 18 percent. Therefore,
if the measure of accuracy is the proportion of actual
change that was estimated, the projection for psycholo-
gists is better. Both kinds of accuracy are important.
The accuracy of level is particularly important, howev
er, because projected levels are used in calculating re
placement needs resulting from retirements and deaths.
Rating the handbook ratings
In addition to publication in Tomorrow's Manpower
Needs, many of the 1980 projections were used as a ba
sis for qualitative descriptions in another BLS publica
tion, the 1972-73 edition of the Occupational Outlook
Handbook, designed to help young people make career
plans. In most cases, the handbook description of em
ployment outlook for an occupation includes a sentence
about the expected change in employment through the
1970’s. The adjectives used to describe expected chang
es in employment requirements generally corresponded
to these ranges of percent change (increase or decrease):
very rapid, 40 or more; rapid, 30 to 39.9; moderate, 15
to 29.9; slow, 5 to 14.9; little or no change, 0 to 4.9.
The handbook contained occupational statements for 45
of the 64 occupations for which projections were evalu
ated, and the standard adjectives were used in describ
ing the outlook in 34 of these statements. Statements on
only two occupations, elementary schoolteachers and
telephone operators, were incorrect about the direction
of employment change. The handbook expected employ
ment in this teaching field to decline slowly, but it
showed little or no change. The number of telephone
operators was expected to grow slowly instead of de
clining moderately. The outlook description for tele
phone operators was misleading, but the one for
elementary teachers was not.
The adjectives were on target or only one category
off target for about two-thirds of the remaining state
ments. Rapid growth in surveyor employment was pro
jected, for example, instead of very rapid growth.
Adjectives for about one-fourth of the statements were
off by two categories, but in some cases it is difficult to
determine whether this degree of inaccuracy was mis
leading. The difference betwen moderate growth and
very rapid growth, for example, does not seem as signif
icant as the difference between moderate growth and lit
tle or no change. Adjectives for the following occu
pations were three categories off the mark: jewelers and
watchmakers, boilermakers, and cement and concrete
finishers. The outlook descriptions for these occupations
likely were misleading.
trix and projected 1980 matrix were obtained from a
variety of sources. The primary sources of data on occu
pational staffing patterns by industry were the 1950 and
1960 censuses. The primary source of total employment
in each industry was the Bureau of Labor Statistics’
Current Employment Survey (a payroll survey) for 1947
through 1969. The Current Population Survey (a house
hold survey) was the chief source of total employment
of occupational groups and most occupations after
1960. Data for some occupations, however, were
obtained from independent sources, such as professional
societies and regulatory agencies.
The primary data source for occupational employ
ment by industry was the 1960 census, because informa
tion from the 1970 census was not available. However,
the 1980 data used in the analysis were largely derived
from the 1980 Current Population Survey ( c p s ),
which used the 1970 census occupational classification
system. Because the Census Bureau revised its 1960 sys
tem for classifying employment by occupation for use in
the 1970 census, a large proportion of the 160 occupa
tions examined in 1970 were not sufficiently comparable
for evaluation.4
According to the Census Bureau, all nine occupation
al groups had 96 percent or better comparability be
tween the two classification systems. Specifically, if the
1960 labor force data were retabulated, 95 percent or
more of the employment reported in a particular major
occupational group under the 1960 classification system
would remain in the same group under the 1970 system,
and these workers would represent 95 percent or more
of the total for that group. For detailed occupations,
there was far less comparability. Of the 297 occupations
in the 1960 census classification system, only 171 had
90 percent or better comparability in the 1970 system.
About one-half of these occupations, however, were not
included in the matrix. In addition, the accuracy of
some of the projections that were based on historical
data from sources other than the census could not be
verified. After eliminating occupations which were less
than 90 percent comparable and those which had verifi
cation problems, the evaluation of projections was limit
ed to 64 of the 160 detailed occupations covered in the
matrix.
In
a d d itio n
The 1980 projections of occupational requirements
were developed within the framework of a 1970-80 ma
trix that described the relationship of employment in
160 occupations and 116 industries.
The long-term data used in developing the 1970 ma
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th e
c o m p a r a b i li t y
and
v e r if ic a t io n
w e r e h a m p e r e d b y t h e s a m p li n g e r r o r s o f t h e CPS. F o r a
CPS e s t i m a t e o f
The framework
to
p r o b l e m s , t h e c o m p a r is o n o f a c t u a l a n d p r o j e c t e d d a t a
w o u ld b e a b o u t
50,000, f o r e x a m p l e ,
6,700 o r r o u g h l y 13
th e sta n d a r d error
p ercen t o f th e e m
p l o y m e n t l e v e l. T h i s m u c h v a r ia n c e w o u l d h a v e a g r e a t
im p a c t o n e v a lu a t in g a c c u r a c y , f o r p r o j e c t i o n s a v e r a g e d
o n ly
28
p e r c e n t o f f t h e C P S -d e r iv e d
1980
e s t i m a t e s fo r
o c c u p a t i o n s w i t h e m p l o y m e n t o f l e s s t h a n 1 0 0 ,0 0 0 . 5
Data constraints precluded construction of a 1980
25
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW July 1982
E v a l u a t i n g O c c u p a t io n a l E m p l o y m e n t P r o je c tio n s
matrix with actual data comparable to the projected
1980 matrix. Consequently, 1980 employment levels for
most occupations were estimated from CPS data, the pri
mary source of occupational data for matrices between
Table 2.
decennial censuses. Data on 1980 employment were also
obtained from independent sources, such as professional
associations, in cases where the 1960 and 1970 matrices
used these sources rather than the census or CPS.6
Comparison of projected, simulated, and actual 1980 employment in selected occupations
[Workers in thousands]
1980
Occupation
1970
Projected
Simulated
Actual
Difference between
projected and actual
Difference between
simulated and actual
Level
Level
Percent
Projected
Simulated
Actual
Percent
Percent change
Compositors and typesetters....................
Optometrists ............................................
Delivery, route, and taxi drivers ...............
Food counter and fountain workers .........
Blue-collar worker supervisors..................
Heat treaters, annealers, and temperers .
Veterinarians ............................................
Welders and flame cutters ......................
Osteopaths ...............................................
Physicians and surgeons...........................
175.0
17.5
655.0
291.0
1488.0
22.0
24.0
535.0
13.5
266.0
165.0
21.0
750.0
411.0
1700.0
24.4
33.0
675.0
19.4
395.0
199.5
24.9
696.7
368.4
1708.9
24.7
23.3
616.4
20.1
391.5
165.0
20.9
746.0
417.0
1729.0
24.0
33.8
693.0
18.8
381.3
0.0
0.0
0.1
4.0
-6 .0
-29.0
0.4
-0.8
-18.0
0.6
13.7
0.5
0.5
-1.4
-1.7
1.7
-2.4
-2 .6
3.2
3.6
34.5
4.0
-49.3
-48.6
-20.1
0.7
-10.5
-76.6
1.3
10.2
20.9
19.1
-6 .6
-11.7
-1 .2
2.9
-31.1
-11.1
6.9
2.7
-5.7
20.0
14.5
41.2
14.2
10.9
37.5
26.2
43.7
48.5
14.0
42.3
6.4
26.6
14.8
12.3
-2.9
15.2
48.9
47.2
-5.7
19.4
13.9
43.3
16.2
9.1
40.8
29.5
39.3
43.3
Police and detectives ...............................
Radio and television repairers ..................
Elementary schoolteachers......................
Furnance tenders, smelters, and pourers .
Plumbers and pipefitters ..........................
Railroad conductors .................................
Electricians ..........................................
Machinists and related workers ...............
Stenographers, typists, and secretaries ..
Molders, metal, except corem akers.........
415.0
132.0
1260.0
60.0
350.0
40.0
440.0
585.0
3504.0
56.0
600.0
163.0
1249.0
64.0
470.0
39.0
585.0
660.0
4580.0
62.5
584.7
148.8
1856.7
63.3
439.4
31.3
534.7
671.8
4418.2
62.3
579.0
170.0
1313.0
61.0
444.0
36.7
625.0
616.0
4963.0
58.0
21.0
-7 .0
-64.0
3.0
26.0
2.3
-40.0
44.0
-383.0
4.5
3.6
-4.1
-4.9
4.9
5.9
6.3
-6.4
7.1
-7.7
7.8
5.7
-21.2
543.7
2.3
-4 .6
-5 .4
-90.3
55.8
-544.8
4.3
1.0
-12.5
41.4
3.8
-1 .0
-14.7
-14.5
9.1
-11.0
7.4
44.6
23.5
-0.9
6.7
34.3
-2 .5
33.0
12.8
30.7
11.6
40.9
12.7
47.4
5.5
25.5
-21.8
21.5
14.8
26.1
11.3
39.5
28.8
4.2
1.7
26.9
-8.3
42.0
5.3
41.6
3.6
D entists.................................................
Meatcutters and butchers, except
meatpackers ...................................
Carpenters...............................................
Railroad brake and switch operators . . . .
Mail carriers, post office ...........................
Registered nurses ...................................
Waiters and waitresses........................
Millwrights .................................
Cabinetmakers...................................
96.7
127.6
144.1
118.3
9.3
7.9
25.8
21.8
32.0
49.0
22.3
190.0
830.0
88.0
254.0
688.7
1040.0
80.0
70.0
200.0
1075.0
85.0
320.0
983.0
1240.0
94.0
72.7
214.4
1079.9
70.2
315.8
984.6
1225.3
88.7
84.6
185.0
1172.0
78.2
357.2
1101.0
1413.0
108.0
85.0
15.0
-97.0
6.8
-37.2
-118.0
-173.0
-14.0
-12.3
8.1
-8 .3
8.7
-10.4
-10.7
-12.2
-13.0
-14.5
29.4
-92.1
-8 .0
-41.4
-116.4
-187.7
-19.3
-0 .4
15.9
-7 .9
-10.2
-11.6
-10.6
-13.3
-17.9
-0 .5
5.3
29.5
-3.4
26.0
42.7
19.2
17.5
3.9
12.8
30.1
-20.2
24.3
43.0
17.8
10.9
20.9
-2.6
41.2
-11.1
40.6
59.9
35.9
35.0
21.4
Shipping and receiving clerks ..................
Postal clerks ...................................
Mechanical engineers....................
Firefighters........................................
Aeronautical engineers .............................
Civil engineers ...............................
Locomotive engineers...............................
Surveyors .............................
Dietitians and nutritionists ........................
Jewelers and watchmakers..................
379.0
300.0
206.7
180.0
63.9
179.9
43.0
51.2
30.0
35.0
430.0
385.0
276.8
275.0
77.6
235.6
43.0
68.2
37.4
34.7
437.9
372.9
253.2
251.2
72.9
245.7
34.7
74.8
42.0
37.6
505.0
456.3
232.0
227.0
64.0
192.0
34.2
93.0
51.0
48.0
-75.0
-71.3
44.8
48.0
13.6
43.6
8.8
-24.8
-13.6
-13.3
-164.0
-14.9
-15.6
19.3
21.2
21.3
22.7
25.7
-26.7
-26.7
-27.7
-67.1
-83.4
21.2
24.2
8.9
53.7
0.5
-18.2
-9 .0
-10.4
-13.3
-18.3
9.1
10.7
13.9
28.0
1.5
-19.6
-17.6
-21.7
13.5
28.3
33.9
52.8
21.4
31.0
33.2
24.7
-0 .9
15.5
24.3
22.5
39.6
14.1
36.6
-19.3
46.1
40.0
7.4
33.2
52.1
12.2
26.1
0.2
6.7
-20.5
81.6
70.0
37.1
Guards ........................................
Boilermakers ....................
Cashiers .............................
Cement and concrete finishers ...............
Chemical engineers ........................
Plasterers ...............................
Postmasters and assistants....................
Cooks, except private household.............
Asbestos and insulation workers .............
Crane, derrick, and hoist operators .........
373.0
24.0
847.0
65.0
50.9
35.0
35.0
740.0
25.0
145.0
425.0
26.5
1110.0
90.0
59.3
40.0
35.0
930.0
34.0
179.0
507.9
26.5
984.4
86.1
58.4
46.4
43.5
922.5
30.8
162.1
589.0
37.0
1554.0
70.0
46.0
31.0
27.1
1335.0
49.0
137.0
-10.5
-444.0
20.0
13.3
9.0
7.9
-405.0
-15.0
42.0
-27.8
-28.4
-28.6
28.6
28.9
29.0
29.2
-30.3
-30.6
30.7
-81.1
-10.5
-569.6
16.1
12.4
15.4
16.4
-412.5
-18.2
25.1
-13.8
-28.4
-36.7
23.0
27.0
49.7
60.5
-30.9
-37.1
18.3
13.9
10.4
31.1
38.5
16.5
14.3
0.0
25.7
36.0
23.4
36.1
10.4
16.2
32.5
14.7
32.6
24.3
24.7
23.2
11.8
57.9
54.2
83.5
7.7
9.6
11.4
22.6
80 4
96 0
-5.5
Weavers, textile ...................................
Bank tellers ....................
Photographers.............................
Bartenders...........................
Lawyers and ju d g e s .............................
Roofers and slaters .................................
Knitters, loopers, toppers ...............
Inspectors, log and lumber ......................
Psychologists........................
Photoengravers and lithographers ...........
60.0
225.0
65.0
160.0
286.9
60.0
47.5
20.0
33.2
34.0
50.0
337.0
72.0
200.0
342.0
76.0
46.0
23.0
56.0
50.0
57.1
269.7
87.6
185.5
381.5
78.8
44.9
21.2
47.6
38.3
38.0
506.0
111.0
311.0
539.0
124.0
33.0
16.0
106.0
32.0
12.0
-169.0
-39.0
-111.0
-197.0
-48.0
13.0
7.0
-50.0
18.0
31.6
-33.4
-35.1
-35.7
-36.6
-38.7
39.4
43.8
-47.2
56.3
19.1
-236.3
-23.4
-125.5
-157.5
-45.2
11.9
5.2
-58.4
6.3
50.3
-46.7
-21.1
-40.4
-29.2
-36.5
36.1
32.5
-55.1
19.7
-16.7
49.8
10.8
25.0
19.2
26.7
-3.2
15.0
68.7
47.1
-4.8
19.9
34.8
15.9
33.0
31.3
-5.5
6.0
43.4
12.6
-36.7
124.9
70.8
94.4
87.9
106.7
30.5
20.0
219.3
-5.9
Patternmakers, metal and wood .............
Airplane mechanics and repairers ...........
Telephone operators........................
Credit managers...........................
Locomotive engineers' helpers..................
43.0
140.0
420.0
68.0
17.2
56.8
194.0
480.0
100.0
14.0
50.7
172.6
497.0
80.5
13.4
36.0
121.0
299.0
54.0
7.4
20.8
73.0
181.0
46.0
6.6
57.8
60.3
60.5
85.2
89.2
14.7
51.6
198.0
26.5
6.0
40.8
42.6
66.2
49.1
81.1
32.1
38.6
14.3
47.1
-18.6
17.9
23.3
18.3
18.4
-22.1
-16.3
13.6
-28.8
20.6
-57.0
26
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0.0
Methods and assumptions. The basic approach used to
estimate future occupational employment requirements
was to project total employment by industry, project
occupational staffing patterns (ratios) by industry, and
then multiply the industry totals by the ratios to obtain
occupational estimates. The results were then summed
across industries to obtain occupational totals.
Projections of the occupational structure of each in
dustry were based on examination of historical statistics
and the analysis of the factors that influence occupa
tional structure changes, such as new technology and
changes in the product mix of industry. Employment
requirements for many occupations, however, were pro
jected independent of their relationships to industry em
ployment. The projection of schoolteachers, for exam
ple, was based on an analysis of trends in pupil-teacher
ratios and the projected school-age population. This
technique was preferred in cases where such reliable
predictive relationships could be established.7
The 1980 occupational projections embodied certain
assumptions about the size of the labor force, Armed
Forces strength, the rate of unemployment, and other
selected assumptions. Full employment was assumed in
the target year and defined as a civilian labor force with
a 3-percent unemployment rate. A total labor force of
100.7 million was projected for 1980, and it was as
sumed that 2.7 million persons would be in the Armed
Forces, yielding a civilian labor force of 98 million.
With the assumed unemployment rate, the result was
projections of 95.1 million employed and 2.9 million
unemployed workers. The employment number was
used as a control total for the occupational projections.
Total employment underestimated
The projection of total employment for 1980 was 2.2
percent below the actual 97.3 million. Ironically, the er
ror would have been greater if either the labor force or
the unemployment rate had been accurately projected.
The labor force projection was 5.7 percent lower than
the actual 106.8 million, primarily because the number
of women entering the labor force was greater than an
ticipated.8 In addition, Armed Forces strength was
overprojected by 600,000. The net result was a 6.7-mil
lion, or 6.4-percent, understatement of the civilian labor
force (workers in thousands);
L a b o r f o r c e g ro u p
P ro jec ted
A c tu a l
P erce n t
d ifferen ce
T o ta l '......................
A r m ed F o r c e s ...................
C iv ilia n la b o r fo rce . . . .
E m p l o y m e n t .............
U n e m p lo y m e n t . . .
1 0 0 ,7 0 0
2 ,7 0 0
9 8 ,0 0 0
9 5 ,0 8 5
2 ,9 1 5
106,821
2 ,1 0 2
1 0 4 ,7 1 9
9 7 ,2 7 0
7 ,4 4 8
- 5 .7
2 8 .4
- 6 .4
- 2 .2
- 6 0 .9
The unemployment rate in 1980 averaged 7.1 percent,
instead of the assumed 3 percent. Consequently, the
number of unemployed workers was underestimated by
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about 4.5 million. In terms of employment, however,
this error offset a large part of the error in the civilian
labor force projection. If the civilian labor force had
been projected correctly, the unemployment assumption
would have resulted in a 4.4-percent overstatement of
1980 employment, rather than the 2.2-percent underesti
mate that occurred. Conversely, if the unemployment
rate had been accurately anticipated, the civilian labor
force projection would have resulted in a 6.4-percent
understatement of employment.
The recovery and expansion that followed the 1974 —
75 downturn came to an end in 1980, as the economy
felt the effects of the 1979 oil-price shock. After declin
ing from 8.5 percent in 1975 to 5.8 percent in 1979, the
unemployment rate rose to 7.1 percent in 1980. Even if
the economy had continued to improve, however, it is
not likely that unemployment would have declined to
the 3-percent rate assumed in the projections. The eco
nomic downturn of 1980 affected employment in some
occupations more than others. Because unemployment
rates for individual occupations were not specified in
the assumptions, however, the effect of economic condi
tions on the accuracy of a projection for any given oc
cupation is difficult to measure.
Simulated projections
A simulated matrix based on projected 1980 industry
employment totals and 1970 staffing patterns for each
industry was developed to determine whether these
base-year patterns would have resulted in better or
worse occupational employment estimates than the pro
jected patterns that were used. Neither was clearly su
perior, but the 1980 estimates for many occupations
changed substantially.9
The projections were more accurate than the simula
tions for 6 of the 9 major occupational groups. (See ta
ble 3.) However, the average absolute error for all
groups declined from 6.7 percent to 5.7 percent as a re
sult of the simulations. The improvement in this average
was largely because of a much more accurate estimate
for nonfarm laborers. Employment in this group was
projected to increase less than 1 percent between 1970
and 1980, but actually rose 19.7 percent. The simulated
estimate was very close to actual employment. Simula
tions also were more accurate than projections for man
agers and farmworkers.
The simulation improved the projection accuracy for
exactly one-half of the 64 detailed occupations in the
study and reduced it for the remainder. (See table 2.)
The average absolute percentage error increased slight
ly, from 22.4 percent to 22.9 percent. Errors from the
simulation ranged from a 55-percent understatement of
psychologists to a 81-percent overstatement of locomo
tive engineers’ helpers. The same occupations had the
most extreme errors in the projections, and the values
27
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW July 1982 • Evaluating Occupational Employment Projections
Table 3.
Comparison of projections and simulations of 1980 employment by occupational group
[Workers in thousands]
Total .................................................
Professional and technical workers ...........
Managers and administrators......................
Salesworkers...............................................
Clerical w o rkers..........................................
Craft and kindred workers...........................
Operatives...................................................
Nonfarm la borers........................................
Service w o rkers..........................................
Farmworkers ...............................................
Note:
Difference between
simulated and actual
Projected
Simulated
Actual
Level
Percent
Level
Percent
95,085
15,500
9,500
5,760
17,285
12,240
15,440
3,700
13,060
2,600
95,085
15,117
9,910
5,541
16,763
12,143
15,830
4,377
12,695
2,709
97,270
15,613
10,919
6,172
18,105
12,529
13,814
4,456
12,958
2,704
-2,185
-113
-1,419
-412
-820
-289
1,626
-756
102
-104
-2.2
-0.7
-13.0
-6.7
-4.5
-2.3
11.8
-17.0
0.8
-3.9
-2,185
-496
-1,009
-631
-1,342
-386
2,016
-7 9
-263
5
-2.2
-3.2
-9.2
-10.2
-7.4
-3.1
14.6
-1 .8
-2 .0
0.2
Details may not add to totals because of rounding. Percent differences are based on unrounded numbers.
were about the same. However, considerable differences
appear when the occupations are ranked according to
accuracy. Only two occupations were among the 10
with the most accurate projections in each version.
Even among each top 20, there were only nine occupa
tions in common. Similarly, only two occupations were
among the 20 with the worst projections in each ver
sion.
The simulation increased projection errors substan
tially for several occupations. One of the better
projections, a 5-percent underestimate of elementary
schoolteachers, was raised to a 41-percent overestimate.
Because these teachers declined as a percentage of total
employment in the educational services industry be
tween 1970 and 1980, the use of 1970 staffing patterns
in the matrix resulted in an overstatement of employ
ment. 10 Some other occupations with much less accurate
projections as a result of the simulation were veterinari
ans, optometrists, compositors and typesetters, and
postmasters. In contrast, projection errors were reduced
significantly in several occupations, including credit
managers, airplane mechanics, photoengravers and li
thographers, and locomotive engineers. Many of the
occupations most affected by the simulation were con
centrated in relatively small numbers of industries, thus
reducing chances of compensating errors in industry-oc
cupation cells in the matrix.
Similar patterns were observed in both the projec
tions and the simulations. The largest occupations
generally had the most accurate 1980 estimates. In each
case, the direction of employment change was correctly
anticipated in about 5 out of every 6 occupations. Em
ployment in about two-thirds of the growing occupa
tions was underestimated, and nearly all employment
declines were underestimated.
The simulation exercise indicated that the extrapola
tion of staffing patterns did not, on average, produce
more accurate projections for detailed occupations than
the assumption that the patterns would not change over
28
Difference between
projected and actual
1980
Occupational group
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the projection period. This suggests that future work
should concentrate on analysis of factors that affect the
patterns, rather than extrapolations based on limited
observations.
Projections for 1975
The 1980 occupational projections were slightly less
accurate than those previously developed by the Bureau
for 1975. The 1980 estimates have the disadvantage of
being based on more dated statistics on occupational
staffing patterns of detailed industries as the 1960 cen
sus was the most recent source for both projections.
However, a larger number of CPS annual estimates of
total employment in each occupation was available for
the 1980 projections.
Although the 1975 projections were published with a
1960 matrix base, CPS estimates of annual employment
were available annually through 1965 at the time the
projections were being developed and were used in the
analysis. Annual CPS estimates through 1970 were avail
able for the 1980 projections. Therefore, both the 1975
and 1980 projections covered a 10-year span.
The projection of total civilian employment in 1975
was 2.9 percent higher than the actual level of 84.8 mil
lion. The 1980 projection, by contrast, was 2.2 percent
lower than the actual level of 97.3 million. The differ
ence is explained primarily by the underlying labor
force projections. In both periods, labor force participa
tion rates for women rose more rapidly than expected,
resulting in underestimates. However, the labor force
was underestimated by only 2.3 percent in 1975, com
pared with 5.7 percent in 1980. For each year, it was
assumed that Armed Forces strength would be 2.7 mil
lion and the unemployment rate would be 3 percent.
The number of military personnel was overestimated by
about 24 percent in 1975 and by more than 28 percent
in 1980. The economic recession of the mid-1970’s ne
gated the assumption of a full-employment economy in
1975. The unemployment rate in 1975 averaged 8.5 per-
cent, or almost triple the assumed rate. Although the
downturn in 1980 was not as severe, the unemployment
rate averaged 7.1 percent.
Among the comparable detailed occupations, the
1975 projections averaged 21.1 percent off the mark,
while the 1980 estimates averaged 22.4 percent off.
Accuracy improved, however, for about one-half of the
occupations. The largest error among the 1975 projec
tions, a 136-percent overestimate of plasterers, was re
duced to 29 percent. Large projection errors for civil
engineers and knitters, loopers, and toppers also were
reduced. Occupations with worse projections in 1980 in
cluded airplane mechanics, lawyers, telephone opera
tors, locomotive engineers’ helpers, and crane, derrick,
and hoist operators.
Only two occupations were among the 10 with the
most accurate projections for each year. Among the
leading 20, there were eight occupations in common. In
addition, relatively few of the same occupations were
among the least accurate projections for each year.
Again, similar patterns were observed in both sets of
projections. The largest occupations usually had the
most accurate projections. The direction of employment
change was correctly anticipated for about 5 out of ev
ery 6 occupations in each set. In both the 1975 and the
1980 projections, errors for occupations that declined in
employment averaged more than twice as high as those
with employment growth. Nearly all employment de
clines were underestimated. However, employment in
about one-half of the growing occupations was underprojected in 1975, compared with two-thirds in 1980.
The 1975 projections performed better against simple
extrapolations than the 1980 projections, but the ex
trapolations for these two target years were not based
on the same number of employment observations. For
the 1975 study, annual employment data were available
only for 6 years, whereas most of the extrapolations to
1980 were based on 9 years of data.
The earlier evaluation did not include a simulation of
target-year employment using base year occupational
staffing patterns and projected industry employment to
tals. Instead, it focused on a simulation based on pro
jected staffing patterns and actual 1975 employment
totals for each industry, which disclosed that errors in
the occupational employment projections were mostly a
result of the staffing patterns. Unfortunately, data limi
tations precluded a similar study of the 1980 projec
tions.
New projections
Since the 1980 projections were published, the Bu
reau has taken steps to improve its occupational
outlook program. Recently, the first matrix to be
developed from data from the Occupational Employ
ment Statistics survey was completed and projected to
1990.11 Previous matrices were based largely on census
information on trends in staffing patterns from decade
to decade. Because census data are collected only once
every 10 years, they do not capture the latest develop
ments in occupational employment requirements in dif
ferent industries. The occupational employment survey
provides much more timely information, as it collects
data on a 3-year cycle. The survey also is more specific
in its definition of occupations and has a larger sample
than the census-derived sample.12
Both this study and that of the 1975 projections indi
cated weaknesses in industry-occupation staffing pat
terns. The evaluation of the 1980 projections disclosed
that mechanical extrapolation of staffing patterns in the
matrix does not necessarily produce better results than
static patterns. In preparing the 1990 survey-based pro
jections, patterns were extrapolated only when detailed
analysis showed that there were reasons to expect them
to change. As a result, the matrix has more industry-oc
cupation cells that remain static between the base and
target years.
The 1980 projections were based on a single set of as
sumptions. Three alternative sets of occupational em
ployment projections were developed for 1990 from
different assumptions about growth of the labor force,
production, productivity, and other factors. While many
users of the data may prefer a single set of estimates,
the Bureau’s evaluations have demonstrated a wide
range of errors in previous occupational projections. In
addition, a single estimate concerning the future inevita
bly causes users to attribute a precision to it that
should not be afforded. Alternatives also are of more
value to planners who are concerned with how differ
ences in the assumptions might affect the demand for
some occupations more than others.
□
FOOTNOTES
'The Bureau’s occupational projections for 1980 were published in
Tomorrow's M a n p o w er N eeds, Volume IV, revised 1971, Bulletin 1737.
2See Max L. Carey, “Evaluating the 1975 projections of occupa
tional employment,” M o n th ly L a b o r R eview, June 1980, pp. 10-20.
3CPS annual averages of employment for 1962 through 1970 were
extrapolated for the 51 occupations which use the Census and CPS as
data sources for the matrix. Twelve other occupations had matrix esti
mates based on independent sources. Rather than attempting to re
construct annual data from independent sources, estimates from 1960
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and 1970 matrixes were extrapolated for these occupations. An ex
trapolation was not developed for osteopaths because an estimate for
this occupation was not available from the 1960 matrix. The extrapo
lation for locomotive engineers’ helpers resulted in negative employ
ment in 1980; the negative number was arbitrarily adjusted to a
positive level of 100 workers.
4
Technical P aper 2 6 1970 O ccupation a n d In d u stry Classification S ys
tem in T erm s o f Their 1960 O ccupation a n d In d u stry E lem ents. (Wash
ington, U.S. Bureau of the Census. 1972.)
29
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW July 1982 • Evaluating Occupational Employment Projections
5The formula and parameters established from the CPS were not
developed specifically for use in identifying standard errors of employ
ment in detailed occupations, but, nevertheless, should approximate
the magnitude of error.
6For some occupations, the 1970 matrix employment levels and
1970 CPS employment levels were identical. In these cases, the 1980
CPS employment was accepted without adjustment. For many other
occupations, however, differences existed between CPS and matrix em
ployment levels for 1970, even though the matrix estimates were not
developed from independent sources. If a difference was large, the oc
cupation was not included in the evaluation. The 1980 CPS employ
ment levels were adjusted to account for small differences in the 1970
numbers from the CPS and the matrix. If matrix employment for an
occupation in 1970 was 2 percent higher than CPS employment, for
example, the 1980 CPS employment was increased by 2 percent. A
similar procedure was followed in preparing employment estimates
from data obtained from independent sources.
For a detailed discussion of the methodology used in developing
employment projections, see Tom orrow 's M a n p o w er N eeds, pp. 3-6.
“The total labor force participation rate for women was projected
at 43.0 percent for 1980. See “The United States economy in 1980,”
M on th ly L a b o r R eview , April 1970, pp. 3—34. The labor force partici
pation rate for women in 1980 was actually 50.9 percent. For an eval
uation of the 1980 labor force projections, see Howard N Fullerton,
“How accurate were projections of the 1980 labor force?”, elsewhere
in this issue.
Other simulations based on different combinations of actual and
projected data on staffing patterns and industry employment totals
30
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would have been interesting. The occupational totals resulting from a
matrix based on 1970 staffing patterns and actual 1980 industry em
ployment levels could be compared with the actual 1980 occupational
totals to determine the extent to which static patterns alone would
have affected projection accuracy. Similarly, simulations could be de
veloped by combining actual 1980 staffing patterns with projected
1980 industry employment, and projected 1980 staffing patterns with
actual 1980 industry employment. These two simulations could be
used to determine whether the projections of staffing patterns or the
projections of industry employment contributed most to the projec
tion error for each occupation. Unfortunately, some of the data need
ed for these studies were unavailable. The Current Population Survey
(CPS), which was the primary source of data on total employment by
detailed occupation for 1980, gives staffing patterns only for industry
groups. The Bureau’s establishment survey, which is the source of
data on wage and salary employment in each industry, changed from
the 1967 Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) to the 1972 SIC in
1978, and, consequently, projected and actual employment levels for
1980 are not comparable for many industries.
Actually, the 1970 staffing patterns for elementary schoolteachers
were not the sole source of the overprojection of employment in the
simulated matrix. The error was compounded by an overprojection of
total employment in the educational services industry for 1980. If the
industry projection had been correct, the overprojection of elementary
teachers would have been reduced by more than one-third.
" See Max L. Carey, “Alternative occupational employment projec
tions, 1980-90,” M o n th ly L a b o r Review , August 1981, pp. 42-55.
12For a description of the survey, see O ccupational E m p lo ym en t S ta
tistics H an dbook, Bureau of Labor Statistics, April 1979.
Shortages of machinists:
an evaluation of the information
Shortages o f machinists appear to exist
but the statistics that quantify the shortages
are unreliable; some employers can cope
by offering higher wages, others may use
technological improvements or increase training
N
eal
H.
R o senth al
Is there a shortage of machinists? Will machinists be in
short supply in the future? Various studies offer con
flicting answers that cannot be resolved with available
data. However, an examination of Current Population
Survey, Area Wage Survey, and other data can shed
light on why the conflict exists. This article undertakes
such an examination.
During the past few years many articles dealing with
current and expected future shortages of machinists
were published in national periodicals. Their basic con
clusions are generally consistent: Employers currently
are not able to hire as many skilled machinists as they
would like; current training is not sufficient to alleviate
shortages; and similar conditions have existed for some
time. Concern about the future supply is also based on
the expected decline in the number of 18- to 24-year-old
workers in the 1980’s. However, different conclusions
result from studies concerning technological change.
They generally state that the need for manual labor in
factories, especially highly skilled machinists, will be re
duced significantly in the future.
Because of the different viewpoints of these studies,
future supply-demand conditions for machinists are
unclear. Furthermore, very little of the statistical infor
mation used to present both sides is based on “hard
Neal H. Rosenthal is chief of the Division of Occupational Outlook,
Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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data.” Most data are obtained from employers in sur
veys that have questionable reliability. Existing Federal
programs do not collect data on shortages of workers in
specific occupations; such data would be very expensive
to collect and because of their complexity their reliabili
ty would be questionable. Also, information about fu
ture occupational shortages is very limited. Neverthe
less, by summarizing and analyzing a wide variety of
data, insights can be gained into the problems and is
sues.
Definition of terms
Shortages. Data are often misused or misinterpreted be
cause definitions of terms are not clearly specified.
Shortage, as used here, means that sufficient workers
are not available and willing to work at the existing
wage level. Traditional economic theory, which states
that if wages are raised, supply will increase because
more workers will seek jobs, is consistent with this defi
nition. However, it usually takes time to acquire the re
quired skills, so demand may not be met in the short
run. Under these conditions, wages can be expected to
rise as employers hire trained workers from each other,
overtime will be used to meet production schedules, and
less skilled workers will be employed. These factors are
apt to raise prices and reduce productivity.
In addition, it is likely that employers would raise
wages for trainees in an attempt to attract qualified
31
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW July 1982 • Shortages o f Machinists
workers to machinist training programs and thereby re
duce future shortages. However, wages alone do not af
fect one’s career choice; working conditions, social
status, and personal abilities and preferences are also
considerations.
Hence, the job market for an occupation is very com
plex. Workers employed in a specific occupation may
shift to another occupation; die; retire; change jobs by
switching employers but remaining in the same occupa
tion; or lose their jobs and become unemployed. Most
occupations also have several skill levels, and employees
can change jobs within the same occupation by moving
up the skill ladder. At the same time that individuals
leave an occupation or change jobs within it, others en
ter the occupation. They come from outside the labor
force, as do new young workers and persons who are
returning to work after raising a family, pursuing some
additional education, or a short period of retirement.
Entrants also may come from another occupation or
from the ranks of the unemployed. Unfortunately, avail
able data do not quantify these various situations accu
rately.
Machining occupational classification. Many discussions
about shortages of machinists are confusing because it
is unclear which jobs are included in the job classifica
tion. For example, the occupational titles of machinist,
machining occupations, and metalworking occupations
are often used to mean different groups of workers but
sometimes they are used interchangeably. Furthermore,
because consistency in occupational definitions does not
exist among all Federal statistical programs, data on
machinists from various sources may reflect different
groupings of workers. For example, the occupational
classification used by the Bureau to collect data on
wages of machinists from the Area Wage Survey Pro
gram is not identical to the classification in the Current
Population Survey (C PS). Similarly, the definition of ma
chinists for which data are compiled on job openings
registered by employers with the U.S. Employment Ser
vice does not match the CPS definition. Data on voca
tional programs also are classified differently.1 The cov
erage of machinists in the various surveys conducted by
employer associations to identify shortages also differs
from that used in most Federal statistical programs. In
clusion of specific jobs within the broad term machin
ists also changes from one employer survey to another
and probably among employers responding to the same
survey. Therefore, results from one survey should not
be compared with data based on other surveys unless
consistency of job content has been ensured. Unfortu
nately, such comparisons have been made in the past
even though the data were not comparable. This prac
tice has contributed to much of the perplexity concern
ing shortages of machinists.
32
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To avoid confusion in this article, the CPS definition
of machinists was used because that survey provides
more data than any other single source about employ
ment and unemployment trends for workers in machin
ing occupations. Furthermore, many other statistical
series are reasonably compatible with the CPS or can be
related through crosswalks.
Machining workers are classified in two skill-level
groups in the CPS — skilled workers and operatives.
Three skilled machining occupations identified separate
ly in the CPS are discussed here— machinists, tool-and-die
makers, and job and die setters. Data for five operative
occupations— drill-press operatives; grinding-machine
operatives; lathe and milling-machine operatives; punchpress-machine operatives; and other precision machine
operatives— are also analyzed.
Each of these occupations includes workers found in
a variety of jobs as classified by employers. For exam
ple, the occupation of tool-and-die maker in the CPS’s
conducted during 1972-80, includes 35 separate job ti
tles, including diemaker, diesinker, jig-bore-tool maker,
tool adjuster, and jig-and-fixture builder. Similarly,
skilled machinists comprise about 25 specific job titles
such as fitter-machine, precision machinist, toolroom
machinist, lathe machinist, and aircraft machinist.
Lathe and milling-machine operatives include more than
60 different job titles, such as lathe operator, lathe turn
er, tool-lathe operator, milling-machine operator, and
gear cutter.
It should be pointed out that CPS statistics are com
piled as if there were a clear break in skills between oc
cupations rather than a continuum within each
category. For example, all workers in the machinist or
the lathe operators category do not perform at the same
skill level. Also, the skills of workers who are counted
in the skilled machining occupations in the CPS overlap
with those of some operatives.
Machinists in the 1970’s
Employment. Combined employment in the three skilled
machining occupations covered separately in the CPS—
job and die setters, metal; machinists; and tool-and-die
makers— increased from 655,000 to 834,000, or 27 per
cent, between 1972 and 1980.2 Job growth averaged
22,400 a year. (See table 1.) In comparison, employment
in manufacturing industries, where most machinists are
employed, grew by only 6 percent over the same period.
Machinist employment grew from 377,000 to 567,000,
or 50 percent, but the other skilled machining occupa
tions—job and die setters and tool-and-die makers—
declined slightly. During the 1975 recession, employ
ment did not decrease significantly for any of the skilled
machining occupations.
Employment in each of the operative machining occu
pations fell between 1972 and 1980 or remained at
Table 1. Employment in machining occupations, annual
averages, 1972-80
[Numbers in thousands]
Occupation
1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980
Skilled machining occupations,
to ta l......................................
Job and die setters, metal
Machinists........................
Tool-and-die makers . . . .
655
94
377
184
682
93
402
187
735
97
461
177
731
96
461
174
758
92
478
188
768
97
478
193
773
98
493
182
824
90
552
182
834
91
567
176
Operative machining
occupations, total ...............
Drill p re ss........................
Grinding machine.............
Lathe milling machine . . .
Punch stamping press . . .
Other precision machines .
625
75
130
123
157
140
595
77
140
136
175
67
601
69
152
137
170
73
489
61
132
118
130
48
508
65
133
106
155
49
524
62
126
121
152
63
542
64
129
125
156
68
562
67
143
123
158
71
502
61
134
114
127
66
roughly the same level. For operative machining occu
pations as a group, employment dropped by an average
of 15,400 annually. However, during the 1975 recession,
employment decreased significantly in each of these oc
cupations.
Unemployment. Unemployment rates for machinists and
tool-and-die makers were lower than those for
craftworkers as a whole in each year from 1972 to 1980.
(See table 2.) The unemployment rates for tool-and-die
makers were very low— less than 3 percent— for most
of the period. However, even for this occupation the
rate jumped significantly to 7.1 percent during the 1975
recession, although it declined to 3.3 percent in 1976.
The unemployment rate for machinists was lower than
that for tool-and-die makers prior to the 1975 recession,
but was higher after 1975. The unemployment rate for
job and die setters was also relatively low in the 1970’s.
During the 1970’s, the unemployment rate for the
skilled machining occupations was lower than that for
durable goods manufacturing as a whole, in which more
than 80 percent of all skilled machining workers are
employed. Unemployment rates for operative machining
occupations were generally higher than average.
Earnings. Earnings data for machinists, tool-and-die
makers, and machine-tool operators are collected
through the Bureau’s Area Wage Surveys. The defini
tions for both machinists and tool-and-die makers used
in these surveys are not identical to those in the CPS,
but they are very comparable. However, the skill level
of the machine-tool operators for which wage data are
collected is much higher than that which the average
worker reported in operative machining occupations in
the CPS.
The hourly earnings of machinists, tool-and-die mak
ers, and machine-tool operators from the Area Wage
Surveys varied only slightly within the same city for
each year in which data were available during 1972-80.
In general, tool-and-die makers earned a little more
than machinists who in turn earned slightly more than
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machine-tool operators, although the pattern varied
among cities. (See table 3.) For each occupation, there
were some significant earnings differentials among cities.
Workers in the machining occupations covered in the
BLS Area Wage Surveys had higher average hourly earn
ings than all production workers in manufacturing in
dustries in the same city as reported in the Bureau’s
Current Employment Statistics program. Between 1972
and 1980, the wages of workers in the machining occu
pations relative to all production workers remained the
same or declined slightly in five cities for which data
are readily available.
Training. Data on registered apprenticeships indicate
that completions declined significantly between 1970
and 1980 for machinists and tool-and-die makers. The
number of machinist apprenticeship completions fell
from 3,822 to 1,905 between 1970 and 1975, increased
to nearly 3,000 in 1977, and then decreased to 2,450 in
1979. Tool-and-die makers followed a similar pattern
but their decline from 1970 was even greater. The fol
lowing tabulation shows the number of completions and
additions to registered apprenticeship programs in 1972—
79 for machinists and tool-and-die makers:
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Machinists
Completions Additions
—
3,695
—
2,357
6,526
2,047
4,858
1,905
5,567
2,526
5,488
2,967
6,385
2,859
6,397
2,450
Tool-and-die makers
Completions Additions
3,825
—
—
2,716
4,934
2,051
2,900
1,849
3,888
1,901
5,150
2,387
5,501
2,311
5,379
1,807
However, workers who complete apprenticeship programs are not new entrants to an occupation in an accounting sense, because apprentices are counted in the
employment totals for the occupation. Adding them as
new workers, when they complete training, would result
in double counting. Data on the additions to appren
ticeship programs each year provide a better measure of
new entrants to an occupation. These data show that
the number of new additions to apprenticeship pro
grams averaged between 5,000 and 6,500 for machinists
and 3,000 to 5,500 for tool-and-die makers from the
mid- to late 1970’s. They do not display the declining
pattern shown by completions.
Training programs for tool-and-die makers, machinetool operators, and machine-shop occupations also are
offered in public vocational educational programs. Data
on completions are very sparse and their meaning is
vague because both secondary and post-secondary com
pletions are added together in reports. Thus, the com
pletions may reflect a 1- or 2-year program or just one
course. Furthermore, the skills of the individuals com33
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW July 1982 • Shortages o f Machinists
pleting these programs are minimal compared to those
of persons finishing apprenticeship programs, and com
pletion of vocational courses does not qualify individu
als for journeyman positions. Generally, those complet
ing these programs subsequently enter apprenticeship
programs in order to pursue careers in machining occu
pations. In 1978, 2,400 students completed tool-and-die
making training in public vocational schools, 3,400
completed training in machine-tool operation, and
32,000 completed training in other machine-shop occu
pations.
Implications of the data
The data presented above do not prove or disprove
that shortages of machinists exist. Nevertheless, they
are compatible with the existence of such shortages. The
data indicate that skilled machinists are im portant in
production activities: During the 1970’s, they increased
as a proportion of total employment, and even during
the 1975 recession, their employment did not decrease.
The very low unemployment rates for skilled machining
workers during the 1970’s also is very compatible with
a shortage of workers. However, it is doubtful that gen
eral shortages of machine operatives occurred during
this period because of their relatively high unemploy
ment rates. However, during some years, these rates
were very low for certain operative occupations and in
dicate possible shortages.
Unlike the data on unemployment, those on earnings
of machining workers do not show a pattern that
would, in theory, be expected with the existence of
shortages. When there are shortages in an occupation
over time, its wages should increase relative to those of
other workers who are not in limited supply. This was
not the case for machinists, as the differential wage be
tween machinists and all production workers did not
change significantly. However, the constant wage differ
ential is not definitive proof that a shortage did not ex
ist. Wage structures are interconnected in complex
Table 2. Unemployment rates for machining occupations,
annual averages, 1972-80
[In percent]
Occupation
1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1960
Total, all w orkers.........
5.6
4.9
5.6
8.5
7.7
7.0
6.0
5.8
7.1
Craftworkers ...........................
Job and die setters, metal . .
Machinists ...........................
Tool-and-die m a ke rs...........
4.3
3.1
3.2
4.0
3.7
1.2
1.9
1.6
4.4
2.2
2.2
2.5
8.3
7.8
7.0
7.1
6.9
4.0
5.9
3.3
5.6
3.2
3.8
2.0
4.6
2.8
3.1
2.6
4.5
3.5
2.7
.9
6.6
4.8
4.8
2.8
Nontransport operatives .........
Drill press.............................
Grinding machine ...............
Lathe milling machine .........
Punch stamping p re s s .........
Other precision machines ..
7.6
9.5
5.6
5.1
8.2
5.8
6.1
6.3
2.2
1.8
4.7
3.4
13.2 14.7
9.9 20.0
4.5 11.8
3.4 13.1
9.5 23.2
4.9 14.5
10.8
15.8
7.1
8.6
12.1
10.3
9.5
9.5
4.7
5.3
9.4
5.6
8.1
4.9
4.9
4.6
8.0
7.0
8.4
5.8
3.1
2.9
12.9
6.7
12.2
13.4
8.8
9.1
24.1
12.8
Total, durable goods
manufacturing .........
5.4
7.9
7.7
6.2
4.9
5.0
8.9
34 FRASER
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5.4
11.3
Table 3. Earnings of workers in selected machining occu
pations relative to those of all production workers, select
ed cities, 1972 and 1980
1972
1980
Boston:
Machinists.............................................................................
Machine-tool operators .......................................................
1.47
1.43
1.22
1.12
Chicago:
Machinists.............................................................................
Tool-and-die makers ............................................................
Machine-tool operators .......................................................
1.31
1.41
1.28
1.32
1.39
1.30
Houston:
Machinists..............................................................................
Tool-and-die makers ............................................................
1.29
1.17
1.23
1.15
Baltimore:
Tool-and-die makers ............................................................
Machine-tool operators .......................................................
1.32
1.15
1.31
1.14
Cincinnati:
Tool-and-die makers ............................................................
Machine-tool operators .......................................................
1.30
1.24
1.26
1.17
City and occupation
ways, and there could be conditions that would not al
low the differential to change significantly despite a
shortage. For example, the industries employing many
machinists and tool-and-die makers have numerous
small firms that compete for work through bids in re
sponse to service requests. If one firm raises its wages,
it must also raise its bids, and risk losing work. Thus,
raising wages to attract workers may be counter-pro
ductive, if the new workers are subsequently not needed
because work is not available.
Trends in training through apprenticeship programs
shed some light on the job market situation for machin
ing workers because apprenticeship training is provided
by employers. During periods of shortages or expected
shortages, employers should be willing to increase train
ing. However, during the 1970’s, apprenticeships de
creased, implying that shortages did not exist or that
they were not severe enough to warrant increased train
ing opportunities. However, the employer surveys con
ducted by associations discussed earlier in this article
not only indicate the existence of shortages, but
expanded apprenticeship training programs. But many
employers prefer not to have registered apprenticeship
programs because these must strictly conform to De
partment of Labor regulations, and last for 4 years.
Many employers evidently feel they can train workers
to acceptable standards in less time through
nonregistered programs. Reducing the length of training
is very consistent with the existence of shortages. Data
on enrollment and completions of nonregistered pro
grams do not show up in Federal statistics.
As indicated previously, specific data designed to
measure occupational shortages are not compiled by the
Federal Government. Although data are available on
job orders placed with U.S. Employment Service offices
throughout the country, they are not comprehensive,
covering only an estimated 10 to 15 percent of all job
openings, and they are not statistically valid for ana
lyzing year-to-year changes.
However, a 1980 pilot survey of job vacancies in
Massachusetts, conducted to test the collectibility of
such data, point to the existence of a shortage of ma
chinists— at least in that State. The job vacancy rate
(vacant jobs divided by total employment) for machin
ists was 13.3 percent in 1979 and 12.5 percent in 1980,3
significantly higher than for any other occupation in the
State. High vacancy rates (over 4 percent in each year)
also were found for mechanical engineers, computer sci
entists, registered nurses, licensed practical nurses, and
computer programmers. These occupations are tradi
tionally placed in the “shortage” category, and it is
significant that the vacancy rate for machinists was
much higher.
Journal articles analyzing employment and shortages
of machinists often discuss the age distribution of these
workers. Much is written that the average age of ma
chinists is increasing. Such reports generally imply that
the age distribution of machinists is becoming skewed
toward the older age groups; but data on the age distri
bution of machinists and job and die setters collected in
the CPS dispute this conclusion. For example, between
1972 and 1980, the proportion of these workers who
were 55 to 64 years old declined, and significant in
creases were recorded in the 20 to 24 and 25 to 34 age
groups. The rise in the younger group followed the
trend of the total population and of craftworkers as a
whole. Some of the employer surveys we have men
tioned, which indicate shortages and the need for more
training, also imply that the increasing average age of
these workers is not a problem.
A look at the 1980’s
Because machining workers are key to many types of
industrial production, economic and industrial planners
are very concerned about the future job market for
these workers. The issue is particularly significant to
those concerned with the capability of U.S. industry to
cope with a major defense buildup. Some insights about
this topic can be gained from BLS projections of em
ployment in machining occupations.4
Until 1980, the Bureau’s occupational projections
were developed using historical employment data de
rived from the CPS. However, in 1980, the Bureau
shifted the base for current occupational employment
from the CPS to employment data generated by the Oc
cupational Employment Statistics ( o e s ) Survey. OES
data are obtained by mail questionnaire from a sample
of establishments that is designed to produce estimates
of industry staffing patterns. Specific occupational defi
nitions are listed on the questionnaire for each major
occupation in an industry, and up to 16 different ma
chining occupations can be found on an industry ques
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t io n n a ir e . F o r t h e s e r e a s o n s , a s w e l l a s o t h e r s r e la t e d t o
s u r v e y m e t h o d s a n d p r o c e d u r e s , OES s u r v e y - b a s e d e m
p l o y m e n t d a t a a r e b e l ie v e d t o b e m o r e a c c u r a t e th a n
t h o s e d e r iv e d f r o m
d a ta
by
d e t a i le d
t h e CPS f o r m e a s u r i n g e m p l o y m e n t
in d u s t r y .
H o w e v e r , b e c a u s e n a tio n a l
OES s u r v e y d a t a w e r e n o t a v a i la b le p r io r t o
1978,
a n a ly
s i s o f h i s t o r i c a l d a t a i s C P S -b a se d .
Employment data on machining occupations in the
and the OES survey are not strictly comparable be
cause of differences in definitions, as well as in survey
procedures and methods. For example, the 1980 CPS to
tal for skilled machining occupations— job and die set
ters, machinists, and tool-and-die makers— was
834,000, about 266,000 higher than the 568,000 in 12
separate OES occupations that are in theory comparable
to the three CPS groups combined. Actually, the num
bers of job and die setters were reasonably close, 91,000
( c p s ) and 93,300 ( o e s ), as were the totals for tool-anddie makers, 176,000 ( c p s ) and 170,000 ( o e s ). However,
figures for machinists varied considerably, 304,000 ( o e s )
and 567,000 ( c p s ).
Data in the CPS are collected directly from individuals
who respond to questions about their work activities. It
is very likely that operators of numerically controlled
machine tools, and the highly skilled “machine tool op
erators, combo” who operate several machines are in
cluded in the CPS machinist category rather than in the
operative category, “other precision machine opera
tives.” These workers probably consider themselves to
be machinists rather than machine operators, and they
are apt to report to a CPS interviewer in a manner that
would result in their being classified as the former.
Their salaries also are very close to, if not higher than,
machinists’ and tool-and-die makers’, and far exceed
those of other workers in the machine operator class. If
one assumes that these workers are counted in the CPS
machinist category, and adds their OES employment
(52,700 numerically controlled machine tool operators
and 170,700 machine tool operators, combo) to the OES
employment of skilled machining workers, the OES total
would be 791,300, compared with 773,000 in the CPS.
The above discussion was designed to establish rea
sonable comparability of data on employment of skilled
machining workers based on CPS and OES survey data.
If the data are reasonably comparable, comparisons can
be made between historical and projected data. As not
ed earlier, employment in skilled machining occupations
grew an average of 22,400 a year between 1972 and
1980. In the Bureau’s three alternative projections of
employment to 1990, the average annual growth of em
ployment for skilled machining workers (including nu
merically controlled machine tool operators and
machine tool operators, combo) ranged from 11,900 to
23,200 from 1980 to 1990. In each projection, the rate
of growth of employment is expected to be slower than
CPS
35
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW July 1982 • Shortages in Machinists
in the 1970’s, and only in the high-trend model is the
1980-to-l 990 numerical average annual growth similar
to that of the 1970’s. (See table 4.)
Table 4. Employment in skilled machining occupations,
1980 and projected 1990
[Numbers in thousands]
Conclusions
Occupation
Information about the job market for skilled machin
ing workers during the 1970’s is consistent with the
existence of shortages. However, statistics generated by
ongoing government data collection programs do not
provide the information necessary to quantify the short
age. Quantitative data from surveys conducted by em
ployer associations are statistically unreliable and
probably overstate the numerical shortage. Some em
ployers do not experience a shortage of skilled machin
ing workers because they offer higher than average
wages, benefits, or both. Also, the severity of the short
ages varies among geographic areas.
Employers can deal with shortages in many ways.
Some can offer wages that are higher than other em
ployers in their locality and therefore are able to hire
the workers they need, while others implement techno
logical gains or increase training.
Those using technological development to cope with
shortages may expand their use of numerically con
trolled machine tools, machining centers, adaptive con
trol, digital readout, manual data input control,
improved cutting-tool materials, and group technology.5
However, because technological improvements often re
quire substantial capital investment, smaller employers
may have great difficulty in obtaining the required funds
and therefore cannot make the desired innovations.
Many employers have increased training in an effort
to reduce shortages of skilled machining workers.
Skilled machining workers must be trained on the job;
therefore, unless employers cooperate, additional work
ers will not become available. However, training is ex
pensive and many employers are not able to
significantly expand their training efforts.
General shortages of skilled machinists should not
worsen during the 1980’s, but they may be marked in
some localities. For example, if defense purchases were to
rise rapidly during a short time frame and affect industries
in a specific area, the shortage could become so acute that
the planned increases in production could not occur.
In general, however, unless programs are designed to
Total, all skilled machining
occupations ...............
1980
employment
Projected 1990 employment
Low trend High trend I High trend II
791.4
910.4
1,023.2
958.2
Job and die setters, m e ta l.........
Dlesetters...............................
Machine toolsetters, metal . ..
Setters, molding and
coremaking machines.........
Punch press setters, metal . . .
Shear and slitter setters.........
Setters, plastic molding
machine .............................
93.3
4.3
55.5
112.5
5.2
65.9
124.2
5.8
73.7
114.5
5.4
67.2
1.3
19.2
5.5
1.9
23.3
6.6
1.9
25.9
7.2
1.9
23.9
6.7
7.4
9.6
9.8
9.4
Machinists .................................
Layout markers, m e ta l...........
Machinists...............................
Moldmakers, pottery .............
304.3
21.3
281.9
1.1
352.2
24.3
326.7
1.2
390.8
27.2
362.3
1.4
386.3
24.8
335.4
1.3
Tool and die m a kers..................
Tool-and-die makers .............
Diesinkers...............................
Instrument m akers..................
170.3
162.8
3.1
4.3
184.3
175.7
3.4
5.1
212.2
202.5
3.9
5.7
188.7
180.7
3.5
5.1
Machine-tool operators, combo .
Machine-tool operators, numerical
control ...................................
170.7
199.9
226.2
205.9
52.7
61.2
69.9
62.8
foster action on the part of employers, current shortages
are not likely to be reduced significantly. Some specific
program may be necessary to provide employers with
an incentive to expand the rate at which new technolo
gy is introduced or to increase the number of workers
trained each year.
Because skilled machining workers must be trained on
the job in 3- to 4-year programs, increases in such pro
grams providing machining skills offered in vocational
education and Comprehensive Employment and Train
ing Act ( c e t a ) programs will not reduce shortages.
However, individuals who complete these programs do
qualify for entry into employer training programs and
many employers prefer to enroll individuals who have
completed an appropriate vocational education or CETA
program. Because machinists are expected to have excel
lent job prospects through the 1980’s, earnings are above
average, and unemployment rates are low, expansion of
these programs is appropriate. However, the major im
pact of this action will be to improve the quality of the
individual entering employer training programs, rather
than increasing their number.
□
FOO TNOTES
' The value of consistency in data collection programs is recognized
by the Federal Government. In 1980, the Office of Management and
Budget issued the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) which
is to be used by all Federal agencies in collecting occupational data.
Federal statistical data therefore will become more compatible
throughout the 1980’s, as agencies convert to the SOC.
2Data from the Current Population Survey are not presented for
the years prior to 1972 because the data are not comparable.
3See Massachusetts Division of Employment Security, Job Openings
in M assachusetts, 1980, and A n A nalysis o f S elected H igh N e t D e m a n d
Digitized36
for FRASER
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Occupations: Findings From a S ta te -W id e S u rvey (Massachusetts, The
Executive Office of Economic Affairs, 1981).
“Projections are developed of the labor force, the gross national
product, industry output, industry employment, and occupational em
ployment. The latter are available by 3-digit Standard Industrial
Classification industry detail in the form of an industry-occupational
matrix.
5See Technology a n d L a b o r in F our Industries, Bulletin 2104 (Bu
reau of Labor Statistics, January 1982), ch. 3.
The A natom y of
Price Change
Reconciling the CPI and the
PCE Deflator: first quarter 1982
Julie A. Bu n n
and
Jack E. T riplett
This reconciliation of the Federal Government’s two ma
jor inflation measures— the Consumer Price Index (cpi),
published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the
Implicit Price Deflator for Personal Consumption Ex
penditures (pce Deflator), produced by the Bureau of
Economic Analysis— extends the data through the first
quarter of 1982.1
Reconciling period-to-period changes. For only the sec
ond time in the past 3 years, the Consumer Price Index
for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose more slowly than
the comparable PCE price measure (the “ PCE: ChainWeight” index)2 in the first quarter of 1982 (table 1).
The most recent quarter is the first time that all three
elements— differences in the measurement of housing
costs, differences in weighting, and the effect of “all oth
er” factors— of the reconciliation operated to slow the
CPI-U relative to the “ PCE: Chain-Weight” index.
For the second quarter in a row, the CPl-Xl, the ver
sion of the Consumer Price Index which approximates a
“rental equivalence” measure of housing identical to
that employed in calculating the PCE Deflator, increased
at a faster rate than the CPI-U. Thus the “housing ef
fect” in table 1 was negative (meaning that, in the most
recent quarter, the treatment of housing has contributed
to the PCE measure rising faster than the CPl-u).
For the third quarter in a row (and contrary to what
is usually expected) the “ PCE: Chain-Weight” index,
which draws its weights from the immediately preceding
period has risen more rapidly than an index based on
the same price data, but using 1972 weights.3 This cre
ates a negative “weighting effect” in table 1.
Julie A. Bunn is an economist in and Jack E. Triplett is assistant
commissioner of the Office of Research and Evaluation, Bureau of La
bor Statistics.
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Finally, the “all other” effect, which measures the in
fluence of compilation and computational differences
other than the drawing of weights from different peri
ods and the treatment of owner-occupied housing, con
tinues the first quarter behavior of previous years, but
stands out as the largest negative “all other” effect in
more than 3 years. Differing seasonal adjustment meth
ods account for part of the “all other” effect.
The most striking result from table 1 is the emer
gence of negative values for the weighting effect. It is
usually expected that an index that uses 10-year-old
weights will rise somewhat more rapidly than one that
uses recent or current weights, and the weighting effect
bore out this presumption for earlier periods (even
though weights have never contributed very much to
the difference in CPI and PCE movements). In the seven
quarters since m id-1980, however, the weighting effect
has taken on its expected positive sign in only one quar
ter (1981-1); in three other quarters, different weighting
periods made no difference in the index measurement,
Table 1 "Reconciliation” of annual and quarterly percent
changes in the CPI-U and the Personal Consumption
Expenditure price measures, 1980 to 1982-1________
1982
1981'
1980
1981
CPI-U2 .................................
PCE: Chain-Weight3 ...........
13.5
10.6
Total difference4 (CPI-U
minus PCE: Chain-Weight).
Housing treatment5 . . .
Weighting effect6 .........
“ All other” effect7 . . . .
2.9
2.3
0.4
0.2
Difference
1
II
III
IV
I
10.4
9.0
11.0
10.3
7.8
6.5
11.8
8.7
7.7
7.4
3.2
5.7
1.4
0.9
0.1
0.4
0.7
0.4
0.6
-0.3
1.3
0.5
3.1
2.7
-0.5
0.9
0.3
-0.5
-0.2
1.0
-2.5
-1 .3
-0.5
-0.7
0.0
0.8
10wing to changes in seasonal adjustment factors, the quarterly figures, seasonally ad
justed annual rates, may differ slightly from those which appeared in table 1, p. 43, January
1982, Monthly Labor Review.
2 Annual and quarterly changes in the CPI-U are taken from tables provided by the Office
of Prices and Living Conditions, Bureau of Labor Statistics. The changes are compiled from
1967 based indexes.
3 Data for the “ PCE: Chain-Weight” were obtained from the Bureau of Economic Analysis,
U.S. Department of Commerce.
4 CPI-U minus “ PCE: Chain-Weight” equals the sum of "housing treatment” , "weighting” ,
and “ all other” effects.
5 Change in CPI-U minus change in CPI-X1. See September 1981 Monthly Labor Review,
p. 21, for fuller explanation. Source of CPI-X1 data is same as footnote 2.
6Change in “ PCE: 1972-Weight” minus change in "PCE: Chain-Weight.” See September
1981 Monthly Labor Review, pp. 8-9, for fuller explanation. Data source for “ PCE:
1972-Weight” changes is same as for footnote 3.
7Change in CPI-X1 minus change in “ PCE: 1972-Weight.” See September 1981 Monthly
Labor Review, p. 6, for fuller explanation.
37
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW July 1982 • A natom y o f Price Change
Table 2. "Reconciliation” of the CPI-U and the Personal
Consumption Expenditure price measures: cumulative
percent change from 1972 to the date shown
1981’
Difference
CPI-U (1972 = 100)2 .............
PCE Deflator (1972 = 100)
(Current-Weight)3 ...............
Total difference
(CPI-U minus PCE Deflator)4
Housing treatment5 .........
Weighting effect6 .............
"All other” effect7 ...........
1980
1981
197.0
1982
I
II
III
IV
I
217.4
210.3
214.3
220.4
224.6
225.9
178.9
193.8
188.5
191.5
195.7
199.4
201.8
18.1
11.7
5.4
1.0
23.6
14.5
7.2
1.9
21.8
13.3
7.3
1.2
22.8
13.7
7.4
1.7
24.7
15.4
7.2
2.1
25.2
15.5
7.0
2.7
24.1
14.9
7.4
1.9
1Owing to changes in seasonal adjustment factors, quarterly figures may differ slightly
from those which appeared in table 2, p. 44, January 1982, M onthly Labor Review.
2Annual data for the CPI-U were computed by the Office of Research and Evaluation
(BLS) from unadjusted monthly data provided by the Office of Prices and Living Conditions
(BLS). The quarterly data for 1980 and 1981 were computed by the Office of Research and
Evaluation employing seasonally adjusted monthly data provided by the Office of Prices and
Living Conditions.
3 Data for the Implicit PCE Deflator, or “ PCE: Current-Weight" index, were provided by the
Bureau of Economic Analysis. The data incorporate revisions released in April 1981.
4 CPI-U minus PCE Deflator equals the sum of “ housing treatment” , "weighting” , and “ all
other” effects.
5 CPI-U minus CPI-X1. See September 1981 Monthly Labor Review, p. 5, for fuller expla
nation. Data source for the CPI-X1 is the same as footnote 2.
6 "PCE: 1972-Weight” minus “ PCE: Current-Weight.” See September 1981 Monthly Labor
Review, p. 6, for fuller explanation. Data source for the “ PCE: 1972-Weight” is same as
footnote 3.
7CPI-X1 minus "PCE: 1972 Weight.” See September 1981 Monthly Labor Review, p. 6,
for fuller explanation.
Digitized38
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while in the three most recent quarters values for the
weighting effect have negative signs, reflecting the fact
that the index with the most recent weights has regis
tered the larger increase.
Reconciling cumulative changes. Table 2 presents a cu
mulative reconciliation of the CPI-U and the PCE De
flator (or PCE: Current-Weight), from 1972 to the first
quarter of 1982. This table continues the cumulative
comparisons of previous reconciliation articles.
□
--------- F O O T N O T E S ---------1The initial reconciliation and technical basis for the analysis is
contained in Jack E. Triplett, “Reconciling the CPI and PCE Defla
tor,” M o n th ly L a b o r R eview , September 1981, pp. 3-15.
2As discussed in Triplett, pp. 7, 13-14, the “PCE: Chain-Weight”
index is comparable to the CPI-U for the purpose of making periodto-period comparisons, while the PCE Deflator, a Paasche-formula
index, is used for the cumulative reconciliation because Paascheformulas lend themselves to statistical interpretation only when refer
ring back to the base year (in this case, 1972).
3See footnote 7 to table 1 and the Triplett, “Reconciling the CPI
and PCE Deflator,” for information on the computation of the
weighting effect.
Technical Note
Labor force data:
the impact of the 1980 census
D
eborah
P is e t z n e r K
l e in
The widely publicized national unemployment figures
are derived from the Current Population Survey. This
survey, conducted by the Bureau of the Census for the
Bureau of Labor Statistics, obtains information from
approximately 60,000 households each month, making
it the largest survey of its type in the world. It provides
data on employment and the labor force as well as un
employment, including information on age, sex, race,
occupation, and industry.
A sample survey is a cost effective means of obtaining
current labor force data. Every surveyed individual, 16
years or older, is classified as employed, unemployed, or
not in the labor force, based on the responses to a
structured questionnaire focusing on specific activities
during the reference week. Because labor force classifi
cations are obtained from the sample households rather
than a complete universe, the responses must be
transformed from raw survey data into estimates which
reflect the target national population— the civilian
noninstitutional population 16 years and older. This
process has several steps which have been detailed in
various technical publications.1 This article addresses
only one aspect of the process— the use of independent
population estimates derived and updated from the de
cennial censuses, which are used to transform the sam
ple data into meaningful statistics.
Population estimates
In a simple example, if information were obtained
from a sample of 5 individuals who represent a universe
of 100, each response would be multiplied by 20. How
ever, in the CPS, independent population estimates have
been established for each of 64 age-sex-race groups. The
reason for using separate weights by demographic
group is to adjust for the fact that the distribution of
the individuals who fall into the sample in any month
may differ somewhat from that of the entire Nation in
Deborah Pisetzner Klein is a senior economist in the Division of Em
ployment and Unemployment Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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terms of age, race, or sex. Because these characteristics
are closely correlated with labor force status, sample es
timates are more accurate when weighting is done sepa
rately for each age-sex-race group rather than with a
single population estimate for the sample as a whole.
Population estimates are derived by taking population
counts by age, sex, and race from the preceding decen
nial census and adjusting them monthly throughout the
ensuing decade, taking into account the aging of the
population, mortality, and net migration. When the ac
tual counts from the subsequent census are available,
they become the new benchmark from which to esti
mate future population levels. In past decades, there has
generally been a small discrepancy between the new
benchmark and the population estimate for that period
as derived from the previous census. As the Census Bu
reau changed from one set of population controls to the
next, there would be a corresponding break in the vari
ous labor force series because they were based on these
population estimates.
Historically, the effect of the change from one popula
tion base to the next was relatively minor. For example,
the net differences resulting from the introduction of the
1970 census-based population estimates to the CPS were
about 800,000 for population and 300,000 for labor force
and employment. However, the conversion to the 1980
census-based population estimates has an entirely differ
ent order of magnitude. When the 1980 census was
taken, the resident population estimate based on the ex
trapolation of the 1970 census was 221.7 million. Howev
er, the 1980 census actually enumerated 226.5 million
persons. Consequently, the population estimates underly
ing the CPS— the civilian noninstitutional population 16
years and over— were increased by 3.7 million (on an an
nual average basis in 1981) expanding the labor force by
2.3 million and employment by 2.1 million.
Data adjustment
The Census Bureau and BLS have historically
followed the procedure of introducing population
weights based on the new decennial census into the CPS
in a single month (at the beginning of a year to avoid
distortions to annual average data), and indicating in
footnotes and technical articles the presence of a series
break.2 Because of the magnitude of the change, this ap
proach was not suitable this time. Accordingly, the
Census Bureau revised its intercensal population esti39
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW July 1982 • Technical Notes
mates and the Bureau of Labor Statistics adjusted many
of the more important labor force series in order to
avoid sizable discontinuities. Using an estimating meth
odology developed jointly by BLS and the Census Bu
reau, the BLS developed revised estimates for some
30,000 labor force series for the 1970’s that are consis
tent with the 1980 census-based population controls as
well as the 1970 census.
The revision procedure takes the April 1970 labor
force estimates as the last “true” estimate and adjusts
each subsequent data cell. The estimated difference in
1981 between each labor force estimate generated by
the 1980 census count and the corresponding 1970based population estimate— called the “difference of
closure” — is wedged back in time from December 1980
to April 1970. The procedure takes into account both
the distance in time from the 1970 census and the speci
fic size of the difference of closure for each series.3
The following simplified diagram may serve to illus
trate the procedure. For any labor force series, point A
represents the estimate for 1970, point B represents the
estimate for 1981 as originally published using the pop
ulation weights derived from the 1970 census, and point
C represents the estimate for 1981 based on the popula
tion weights derived from the 1980 census. Thus, line
AB represents the 1970-81 trend in the labor force se
ries as originally published, line AC represents the trend
after revision, and BC represents the difference of clo
sure. (Had a real labor force series been graphed, AB
and AC would not, of course, be straight lines, but
rather would follow paths influenced by secular and cy
clical developments.)
Difference
of closure
Time
One reason for revising the data is that many users
need to examine trends over time. In fact, one of the
strengths of the CPS is that it provides a consistent time
series which permits the tracking of cyclical and secular
movement among demographic groups.
These labor force revisions are necessarily provisional
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because the underlying estimates of population for the
1970-80 period are considered preliminary by the Bu
reau of the Census. Completion of the 1980 census cov
erage studies and evaluation of the 1970-80 population
estimates may cause the Census Bureau to readjust its
revised population estimates for the 1970-80 period,
which, in turn, may cause the BLS to further revise the
CPS labor force estimates.
The wedge procedure is based on the premise that
within each group the unexpected population increase
took place on a consistent basis throughout the 1970’s.
Without specific evidence to the contrary, this was the
most reasonable assumption to make. While the provi
sional revision provides a smooth, continuous, and rea
sonable time series, there are several key questions to
consider in determining whether the existing wedge pro
cedure will remain the most appropriate. Studies that
could aid in this determination include comparisons of
1970 and 1980 census coverage; evaluation of any esti
mates of undercount in the 1980 census and how they
may differ by age, sex, and race from previous censuses;
as well as estimates of the number of illegal aliens count
ed in the 1980 census and judgments about how long
such persons have been living in the United States.4
Revised labor force data are being issued by the Bu
reau of Labor Statistics in several steps. More than 350
series of revised monthly seasonally adjusted data were
published in the February 1982 issue of Employment
and Earnings, which also contained revised annual aver
ages for major estimates back to 1970. The March 1982
issue of Employment and Earnings contained 62 tables
of 1981 annual averages, some including comparisons
with 1980, on a revised basis. (Annual averages for
1981, prior to revision, were published in the January
1982 issue and, thus, are available for comparison.) In
terms of the Monthly Labor Review, the March 1982 is
sue was the first to contain revised data. In late 1982,
BLS is scheduled to publish a data book with 176 tables
containing nearly 15,000 data series on a revised basis.
In the meantime, many series of both actual and sea
sonally adjusted data may be obtained from the BLS
upon request. Table 1 provides labor force, employ
ment, and unemployment estimates both before and af
ter revision for the 1970-81 period.
While all data series were subject to revision, the
underlying population adjustments caused significant
changes to only those series that measured levels or
counts. Labor force series which are expressed in terms
of percentages— such as the unemployment rate, the
participation rate, and the employment-population ratio
— were largely unaffected by the revision process. This
is because the population adjustments generally had the
same proportionate effect on the numerator and the de
nominator used to derive the percentage. Small changes
occurred because of rounding differences and where
Table 1. Employment status of the noninstitutional
population using 1970 and 1980 census based population
estimates, 1970-81
_________
Civilian
labor force
Year
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
.............
...............
...............
...............
...............
................
...............
...............
...............
...............
...............
................
1970
based
1980
based
82,715
84,113
86,542
88,714
91,011
92,613
94,773
97,401
100,420
102,908
104,719
106,393
82,771
84,382
87,034
89,429
91,949
93,775
96,158
99,009
102,251
104,962
106,940
108,670
Unemployed
Employed
Unemployment
rate
1980
based
1970
based
1980
based
1970
based
1980
based
78,627 78,678
79,120 79,367
81,702 82,153
84,409 85,064
85,935 86,794
84,783 85,846
87,485 88,752
90,546 92,017
94,373 96,048
96,945 98,824
97,270 99,303
98,313 100,397
4,088
4,993
4,840
4,304
5,076
7,830
7,288
6,855
6,047
5,963
7,448
8,080
4,093
5,016
4,882
4,365
5,156
7,929
7,406
6,991
6,202
6,137
7,637
8,273
4.9
5.9
5.6
4.9
5.6
8.5
7.7
7.0
6.0
5.8
7.1
7.6
4.9
5.9
5.6
4.9
5.6
8.5
7.7
7.1
6.1
5.8
7.1
7.6
1970
based
changes in the demographic composition of a group af
fected larger aggregates.
Revised labor force growth
Compared with the data as originally published, the
revised data indicate, of course, a faster pace of labor
force growth over the past decade. According to origi
nally published data, the labor force grew by 24 mil
lion, or 29 percent, during the 1970-81 period; as
revised, the increase was 26 million, or 31 percent. (See
table 2.) In terms of employment levels, the comparable
rates of growth were 25 percent prior to revision and 28
percent afterwards.
The adjustment was not evenly distributed among the
various demographic groups. The 1970-81 labor force
growth for men was revised upward by more than 10
percent for every age group through 44 years, but the
revised labor force levels were actually lower for men 45
to 54 years of age. Women showed smaller increases
until the older age categories, where there were very
large changes for 55- to 64-year-olds (31 percent) and
those 65 and over (18 percent). In general, the share of
workers accounted for by persons under 35 years of age
increased with the revised data.
Because of the adjustment methodology, these revised
growth patterns are a direct result of the patterns of la
bor force revisions. Labor force estimates for 1981 are,
on average, 2.1 percent higher using the 1980 censusbased population estimates. About 70 percent of the 2.3
million increase occurred among persons 20 to 34 years
of age, whose “corrected” labor force size was 3.7 per
cent higher than originally estimated. (See table 3.)
Under the revised system, the number of black work
ers was 2.6 percent higher in 1981 and the age
distribution of the incremental increase was even more
skewed toward those under age 35. Unlike the situation
for whites, for whom the increments for men and wom
en were about the same, the overall increase in the
black labor force was higher for women. Furthermore,
the age patterns by sex are quite different. The upward
revisions in the black male labor force occurred entirely
among persons under 45 years of age. For black wom
en, the gains were spread more widely throughout the
age spectrum. This is based upon the fact that, accord
ing to the 1980 census findings, the population of black
men under age 45, as brought forward from the 1970
census, had been underestimated; black women had also
been underestimated but to a lesser degree than these
black men. The large differences in the population esti
mates of black men under age 45 are apparently the re
sult of substantial improvements in the completeness of
coverage for this group in the 1980 census. Among
black women, the improvements in census coverage in
1980 were more evenly distributed across the various
age groups.5
The effect of the revision in CPS data was particularly
sharp for persons of Hispanic origin.6 The overall in
crease in their population estimate was 3.8 percent,
about twice the adjustment for whites. The labor force
adjustment was not very different for men and women
of Hispanic origin, and there was no particular pattern
to the adjustments by age. The largest increase occurred
among those 20 to 34 years of age, but increases for
persons 55 years and older were also larger than aver
age. Within the Hispanic population, adjustments were
largest for persons of Cuban origin and smallest for
persons of Puerto Rican origin.
Table 2. Civilian labor force growth, by age and sex, between 1970 and 1981 using 1970 and 1980 census based
population estimates
[Numbers in thousands]
Total, 16 years and over ...............
16 to 19 years ............................................
20 to 24 years ............................................
25 to 34 years ............................................
35 to 44 years ............................................
45 to 54 years ............................................
55 to 64 years ............................................
65 years and over ......................................
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Women
Men
Total
Age
Percent
change
1970
base
1980
base
Percent
change
1970
base
1980
base
Percent
change
1970
base
1980
base
23,678
25,899
9.4
9,438
10,746
13.9
14,240
15,153
6.4
919
2,350
6,789
3,052
538
491
102
970
2,571
7,204
3,077
569
642
120
5.5
9.4
6.1
0.8
5.8
30.8
17.6
1,601
4,961
12,297
4,538
37
457
-212
1,739
5,502
13,356
4,774
21
686
-180
8.6
10.9
8.6
5.2
15.1
682
2,611
5,508
1,486
501
-3 4
-314
769
2,931
6,152
1,697
-549
44
-299
12.8
12.3
11.7
14.2
-9 .6
4.8
41
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW July 1982 • Technical Notes
Table 3. Civilian noninstitutional population and civilian labor force by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin, using 1970 and
1980 census based population estimates, 1981 annual averages
[Numbers in thousands]
Total
Characteristic
Women
Men
1970
base
1980
base
Net
difference
1970
base
1980
base
Net
difference
1970
base
1980
base
Net
difference
Population, 16 years and o v e r ..................
16 to 19 years ......................................
20 to 24 years ......................................
25 to 34 years ......................................
35 to 44 years ......................................
45 to 54 years ......................................
55 to 64 years ......................................
65 years and o v e r.................................
166,436
15,905
20,081
36,434
26,021
22,412
21,204
24,380
170,130
16,214
20,820
37,777
26,291
22,422
21,756
24,850
3,694
309
739
1,343
270
10
552
470
78,769
7,920
9,717
17,717
12,527
10,848
10,013
10,027
80,511
8,092
10,116
18,427
12,758
10,797
10,151
10,170
1,742
172
399
710
231
-51
138
143
87,667
7,984
10,365
18,717
13,493
11,563
11,191
14,353
89,618
8,121
10,705
19,350
13,533
11,625
11,605
14,680
1,951
137
340
633
40
62
414
327
Labor force, 16 years and o v e r ...............
16 to 19 years ......................................
20 to 24 years ......................................
25 to 34 years ......................................
35 to 44 years ......................................
45 to 54 years ......................................
55 to 64 years ......................................
65 years and o v e r.................................
106,393
8,848
15,543
29,306
20,969
16,985
11,734
3,008
108,670
8,988
16,099
30,392
21,211
16,970
11,969
3,042
2,277
140
556
1,086
242
-1 5
235
34
60,633
4,688
8,320
16,819
11,950
9,916
7,090
1,850
61,974
4,777
8,648
17,479
12,166
9,868
7,170
1,866
1,341
89
328
660
216
-4 8
80
16
45,760
4,160
7,224
12,487
9,019
7,069
4,644
1,158
46,696
4,211
7,451
12,912
9,045
7,101
4,799
1,176
936
51
227
425
26
32
155
18
Population, 16 years and o v e r ..................
16 to 19 years ......................................
20 to 24 years ......................................
25 to 34 years ......................................
35 to 44 years ......................................
45 to 54 years ......................................
55 to 64 years ......................................
65 years and o v e r.................................
145,379
13,347
17,137
31,473
22,732
19,661
19,032
21,998
147,908
13,516
17,609
32,367
22,778
19,666
19,485
22,487
2,529
169
472
894
46
5
453
489
69,311
6,676
8,399
15,524
11,089
9,587
9,021
9,015
70,480
6,764
8,644
16,005
11,171
9,560
9,139
9,195
1,169
88
245
481
82
-2 7
118
180
76,068
6,671
8,737
15,949
11,643
10,074
10,010
12,983
77,428
6,752
8,965
16,362
11,606
10,106
10,346
13,292
1,360
81
228
413
-3 7
32
336
309
Labor force, 16 years and o v e r ...............
16 to 19 years ......................................
20 to 24 years ......................................
25 to 34 years ......................................
35 to 44 years ......................................
45 to 54 years ......................................
55 to 64 years ......................................
65 years and o v e r.................................
93,586
7,881
13,549
25,470
18,390
15,008
10,577
2,711
95,052
7,962
13,926
26,208
18,445
14,993
10,764
2,753
1,466
81
377
738
55
-1 5
187
42
54,027
4,174
7,304
14,881
10,661
8,865
6,463
1,680
54,895
4,224
7,521
15,340
10,740
8,836
6,530
1,704
868
50
217
459
79
-2 9
67
24
39,559
3,707
6,245
10,589
7,730
6,143
4,114
1,031
40,157
3,739
6,406
10,868
7,704
6,157
4,235
1,049
598
32
161
279
-2 6
14
121
18
Population, 16 years and o v e r ..................
16 to 19 years ......................................
20 to 24 years ......................................
25 to 34 years ......................................
35 to 44 years ......................................
45 to 54 years ......................................
55 to 64 years ......................................
65 years and o v e r.................................
17,808
2,227
2,499
4,073
2,755
2,308
1,887
2,060
18,219
2,288
2,642
4,290
2,758
2,260
1,913
2,069
411
61
143
217
3
-4 8
26
9
7,977
1,078
1,108
1,800
1,213
1,068
860
851
8,117
1,110
1,189
1,914
1,223
1,003
844
834
140
32
81
114
10
-6 5
-1 6
-1 7
9,831
1,149
1,391
2,272
1,542
1,240
1,028
1,209
10,102
1,178
1,453
2,376
1,534
1,257
1,069
1,234
271
29
62
104
-8
17
41
25
Labor force, 16 years and o v e r ...............
16 to 19 years ......................................
20 to 24 years ......................................
25 to 34 years ......................................
35 to 44 years ......................................
45 to 54 years ......................................
55 to 64 years ......................................
65 years and o v e r.................................
10,810
834
1,724
3,189
2,158
1,651
1,000
254
11,086
862
1,828
3,365
2,164
1,608
1,009
249
276
28
104
176
6
-4 3
9
-5
5,559
444
876
1,601
1,083
882
535
138
5,684
462
941
1,702
1,093
829
524
134
125
18
65
101
10
-5 3
-11
-4
5,251
389
847
1,588
1,075
769
465
117
5,401
400
888
1,663
1,071
779
485
115
150
11
41
75
-4
10
20
-2
Population, 16 years and o v e r ..................
16 to 19 years ......................................
20 to 24 years ......................................
25 to 34 years ......................................
35 to 44 years ......................................
45 to 54 years ......................................
55 to 64 years ......................................
65 years and o v e r.................................
8,970
1,139
1,410
2,412
1,562
1,127
740
580
9,310
1,176
1,478
2,527
1,597
1,149
774
608
340
37
68
115
35
22
34
28
4,341
578
709
1,168
737
537
352
262
4,511
597
743
1,228
758
546
364
275
170
19
34
60
21
9
12
13
4,629
561
702
1,244
826
590
388
317
4,798
579
735
1,299
839
603
411
333
169
18
33
55
13
13
23
16
Labor force, 16 years and o v e r ...............
16 to 19 years ......................................
20 to 24 years ......................................
25 to 34 years ......................................
35 to 44 years ......................................
45 to 54 years ......................................
55 to 64 years ......................................
5,750
527
1,048
1,794
1,147
796
372
5,972
545
1,100
1,884
1,175
812
387
222
18
52
90
28
16
15
3,505
312
630
1,098
684
486
247
3,644
323
662
1,155
704
495
255
139
11
32
57
20
9
8
2,245
215
418
696
463
310
125
2,328
222
439
729
471
317
132
83
7
21
33
8
7
7
All persons
White
Black
Hispanic origin
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Bank of St. Louis
42
Data for all published race and ethnic groups are
available only since 1973. During the 1973-81 period,
the fastest labor force growth was registered for Hispanics, whose population grew dramatically over the
period. Based on revised data, the labor force increase
was 63 percent during the 8-year period; prior to revi
sion, the growth was estimated to be 60 percent. De
spite the sharp increase, the Hispanic share of the total
labor force only moved from 4 to 5.5 percent over the
period, using either revised or unrevised data.
The black labor force grew faster than the white, but
not nearly as fast as the Hispanic labor force. Revisions
raised black labor force growth from 22 to 23 percent
between 1973 and 1981. Over the same period, white la
bor force growth had been 19 percent prior to revision
and 20 percent subsequently.
□
1The most comprehensive discussion of the estimation procedure is
included in The C u rren t P opulation Survey: D esign a n d M ethodology,
Technical Paper 40 (Bureau of the Census, 1977), ch. 5. A summary
description is included in the Explanatory Notes of each issue of E m
p lo y m e n t a n d Earnings, published monthly by the Bureau of Labor
Statistics.
2 For an explanation of the procedures used following the 1970 cen
sus, see Gary M. Shapiro and Xlarvin M. Thompson, “Revisions in
Current Population Survey,” E m p lo y m e n t a n d E arnings, February
1972, pp. 6-9.
3 For a more technical description of the procedures in this adjust
ment process, see Kenneth D. Buckley, Jennifer Marks, and Ronald J.
Statt, “Revisions in the Current Population Survey Beginning in Janu
ary 1982,” E m p lo ym en t a n d Earnings, February 1982, pp. 7-15.
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4 For the first 1980 census coverage study, see Jeffrey S. Passel, Ja
cob S. Siegel, and J. Gregory Robinson, “Coverage of the National
Population in the 1980 Census by Age, Sex, and Race: Preliminary
Estimates by Demographic Analysis,” C u rren t Population R eports, Se
ries P-23, No. 115 (Bureau of the Census, March 1982).
5Ibid.
6It should be noted that the estimates of the Hispanic origin popu
lation are not based on independently developed controls specifically
for this group. Rather, they arise from the weighting process as a re
sult of individual responses to a question on ethnic origin and the
age-sex-race estimates.
43
Family Budgets
Final report on family budgets:
cost increases slowed, autumn 1981
Table 2. Percent change in four-person family budgets,
autumn 1980 to autumn 1981
Lower
Intermediate
Higher
Total budget ...................................
9.1
9.8
10.6
Component
Rising personal income taxes, social security deduc
tions, transportation, and homeowner costs contributed
to the increases in the three hypothetical budgets for a
four-person family. In autumn 1981, the United States
urban average budget costs were $15,323 at the lower
level, $25,407 at the intermediate level, and $38,060 at
the higher level (table 1). From autumn 1980 to autumn
1981, the lower budget rose 9.1 percent, the intermedi
ate, 9.8 percent, and the higher, 10.6 percent (table 2).
The increases in 1981 were approximately 3 percentage
points less than those in 1980, reflecting smaller in
creases in food and personal income taxes.
This report is the final release of the urban fourperson family budget data. The expenditure data on
which the budgets are based are now 20 years old and
continuation of the program would require a revision of
concepts, more current expenditure data, and extensive
collection of price data, for which funding was not
available. Therefore, the program was eliminated in
compliance with the recent overall budget reduction.
Consumption costs. Consumption costs rose by 7.3 per
cent at the lower level, and 7.5 percent at both the in
termediate and higher levels between autumn 1980 and
Table 1. Annual budgets for a four-person family at three
levels of living, urban United States, autumn 1981
Component
Lower
Intermediate
Higher
Total budget ....................................
$15,323
$25,407
$38,060
Total family consumption.............................
Food .......................................................
Housing ...................................................
Transportation ........................................
C lothing...................................................
Personal c a r e ..........................................
Medical c a re ............................................
Other family consumption ......................
12,069
4,545
2,817
1,311
937
379
1,436
644
18,240
5,843
5,546
2,372
1,333
508
1,443
1,196
25,008
7,366
8,423
3,075
1,947
719
1,505
1,972
Other items .................................................
Social security and disability ......................
Personal income taxes ...............................
621
1,036
1,596
1,021
1,703
4,443
1,718
1,993
9,340
Note:
Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not equal totals.
44
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Total consumption less shelter....................
7.2
7.1
7.1
Total consumption........................................
7.3
7.5
7.5
Food .......................................................
Housing ...................................................
Shelter' ..............................................
Renter costs ...................................
Homeowner costs2 ..........................
Housefurnishings and operations.........
Transportation..........................................
Clothing ...................................................
Personal c a r e ..........................................
Medical c a re ............................................
Other family consumption........................
5.2
8.0
7.9
7.9
—
8.2
13.0
3.3
7.7
10.6
7.9
4.9
8.6
8.8
7.9
8.9
8.2
12.1
3.2
7.9
10.7
7.8
4.9
8.7
8.7
7.9
8.8
8.1
11.8
3.1
7.6
10.7
7.8
Other Items .................................................
Social security ............................................
Personal income taxes ...............................
6.5
17.6
19.4
6.7
19.3
17.5
6.7
23.9
17.9
11ncludes only rental housing in the lower budget.
2 On the assumption that the home was purchased 6 years ago, these costs reflect
changes in purchase prices and mortgage interest rates from 1974 to 1975 and changes in
property taxes, insurance, fuels and utilities, and repairs and maintenance from 1980 to
1981.
autumn 1981. Among consumption components, trans
portation costs showed the largest increases at all three
levels. Transportation costs also rose sharply in the two
previous years from autumn 1978 to autumn 1979 and
from autumn 1979 to autumn 1980. Medical care costs
also showed large increases from 1980 to 1981.
Personal income taxes. The budgets include estimated
1981 Federal, State, and local tax payments. The large
increases in taxes, approximately 19 percent at the low
er level and 18 percent at both the intermediate and
higher levels, are a result of increasing consumption
costs and “bracket creep” under the Federal progressive
tax system and that of many States. Although tax in
creases were quite large, they were approximately 10
percentage points less than in 1980 at the lower level
and approximately 7 percentage points less at both the
intermediate and higher levels. This was because of
more moderate price increases for consumption items
and the small, initial reduction in Federal income tax
rates in 1981. While the percentage tax increase was
highest for the lower budget, the effect of the increases
was more pronounced at the intermediate and higher
level because taxes constitute a proportionally larger
share of these budgets.
Social security deductions. While Federal income tax in
creases were lower, social security deductions were
higher in 1981. The employee payroll deduction rate
was increased from 6.13 percent to 6.65 percent, and
the earnings ceiling on contributions was raised from
$25,900 to $29,700. As a result, deductions rose 18 per
cent at the lower level, 19 percent at the intermediate
level, and 24 percent at the higher level.
Table 3.
Housing. Housing increased by 8.0 percent from au
tumn 1980 to autumn 1981 in the lower budget which
includes only renter costs. Both renter and homeowner
costs are included in the intermediate and higher bud
gets and these costs rose by 8.6 and 8.7 percent, respec
tively. For the homeowner component, large increases
in fuel and utilities were offset somewhat by modest in
creases in mortgage interest costs.
Description o f the budgets. The family budgets represent
the costs of three hypothetical lists of goods and ser-
Indexes of comparative costs based on an intermediate budget for a four-person family,1 autumn 1981
[U.S. urban average costs = 100]
Cost of family consumption
Area
Urban United S ta te s ...............
Metropolitan areas8 .............
Nonmetropolitan areas9 . . . .
Total
budget
Food
Housing
Transportation5
Clothing
Personal
care
Medical
care*
Other
family
consump
tion7
Personal
Total
consump
tion
Total
Food
at
home
Total2
Renter3
Homeowner*
Total
Auto
mobile
owners
100
102
91
100
102
93
100
101
94
100
100
98
100
102
91
100
104
82
100
103
87
100
100
98
100
102
94
100
100
98
100
102
93
100
103
88
100
103
85
100
104
84
115
104
116
105
97
102
112
101
109
102
97
101
101
101
113
112
103
99
103
103
110
107
103
102
127
99
121
101
89
109
119
93
110
86
83
90
137
100
131
106
87
116
117
106
91
98
105
105
132
101
103
111
104
100
109
120
89
71
95
105
100
96
102
90
96
88
91
80
100
106
91
87
in
102
109
102
101
86
131
120
148
115
97
105
100
100
101
99
97
106
102
96
91
102
100
102
99
98
102
97
98
93
99
102
100
101
98
97
96
104
93
100
103
98
101
99
95
95
105
97
101
97
100
101
89
106
96
90
92
105
81
84
93
88
99
103
86
96
103
101
107
106
86
111
95
88
88
105
97
99
96
104
102
99
103
96
118
93
98
95
99
97
94
103
91
90
121
110
90
107
114
102
95
107
98
92
120
106
119
106
108
106
98
109
96
100
101
99
97
87
91
83
117
98
106
97
102
103
104
96
88
92
101
97
99
92
122
121
91
83
92
99
89
93
108
86
93
97
95
98
103
89
96
95
95
100
102
93
95
92
92
96
103
97
82
99
86
87
105
83
82
112
99
86
117
68
76
89
82
84
103
75
97
97
103
99
99
97
93
96
98
94
98
93
112
97
93
113
102
87
99
97
99
117
111
90
90
93
113
117
102
89
101
102
96
95
110
83
85
108
65
70
127
71
98
99
94
93
97
90
93
102
97
129
99
92
101
92
94
100
101
102
112
86
104
101
107
103
102
95
103
96
107
98
97
91
94
96
110
112
107
115
100
98
118
120
116
104
130
122
116
113
110
95
89
102
102
109
115
87
89
87
105
83
162
100
122
124
119
116
137
160
100
124
taxes
Northeast:
Boston, Mass.........................
Buffalo, N.Y...........................
New York-Northeastern N.J.
Philadelphia, Pa.-N.J.............
Pittsburgh, Pa........................
Nonmetropolitan areas9 . . . .
North Central:
Chicago, III.-Northwestern Ind.
Cincinnati, Ohio-Ky.-Ind.........
Cleveland, Ohio ..................
Kansas City, Mo.-Kans..........
Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minn. .
Nonmetropolitan areas9 . . . .
South:
Washington, D.C.-Md.-Va. ..
Nonmetropolitan areas9 . . . .
West:
Denver, Colo.........................
Los Angeles-Long Beach,
Calif
...............
San Diego, Calif....................
San Francisco-Oakland, Calif.
Nonmetropolitan areas9 . . . .
98
98
107
102
126
96
100
99
107
106
118
95
98
95
101
101
131
94
95
91
100
99
137
97
98
98
109
109
117
92
125
105
153
140
146
95
Anchorage, A la s k a ..................
126
127
113
116
142
189
1The family consists of an employed husband age 38, a wife not employed outside the
home, an 8-year-old girl, and a 13-year-old boy.
2 Housing includes shelter, housefurnishings, and household operations.
3 Renter costs Include average contract rent plus the cost of required amounts of heating
fuel, gas, electricity, water, specified equipment, and insurance on household contents.
“ Homeowner costs include interest and principal payments plus taxes, insurance on house
and contents, water, refuse disposal, heating fuel, gas, electricity, specified equipment, and
home repairs and maintenance cost.
5The average costs of automobile owners and nonowners In the intermediate budget were
weighted by the following proportions of families: Boston, New York, Chicago, and Philadelphia
80 percent for owners, 20 percent for nonowners; Baltimore, Cleveland, Detroit, Los Angeles,
Pittsburgh, San Francisco, St. Louis, and Washington, D.C., with populations of 1.4 million or
more in 1960, 95 percent for automobile owners and 5 percent for nonowners; all other areas,
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
100 percent for automobile owners.
6 In total medical care, the average costs of medical insurance were weighted by the follow
ing proportions: 30 percent for families paying full cost of insurance; 26 percent for families
paying half costs; 44 percent for families covered by noncontributory insurance plans (paid by
employer).
7 Other family consumption includes average costs for reading, recreation, tobacco products,
alcoholic beverages, education, and miscellaneous expenditures.
8 As defined in 1960-61. For a detailed description of these and previous geographical bound
aries, see the 1967 edition of Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas, prepared by the Office of
Management and Budget.
9 Places with population of 2,500 to 50,000; data for some previously shown are no longer
available.
45
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW July 1982 • Family Budgets
vices that were specified in the mid-1960’s to portray
three relative standards of living— described as lower,
intermediate, and higher. These budgets are for a pre
cisely defined urban family of four: a 38-year-old hus
band employed full time, a wife not employed outside
the home, a boy age 13, and a girl age 8. Average in
ventories of clothing, housefurnishings, major durables,
and other equipment are included for each budget level.
The budgets pertain only to an urban family with these
specified characteristics; no budgets are available for
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rural families. Also, the budgets are not intended to
represent a minimum level of adequate income or a sub
sistence level of living, nor do they indicate how fami
lies do or should spend their money.
The 1981 consumption budgets were estimated by
applying price changes for individual areas from au
tumn 1980 to autumn 1981, as reported in the
Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and
Clerical Workers, to the appropriate autumn 1980 bud
get costs for each main class of goods and services. □
Is the compressed workweek too compressed?
The compressed workweek, usually involving 4 working days with
Friday or Monday off, is something of a misnomer in that it also
means an elongated workday of 10 hours. There has been more expe
rience with this concept in the United States; European workers, on
the other hand, have shown little interest.
The compressed workweek was developed in the United States in
the late 1960’s, and has been tried mainly by smaller, nonunion em
ployers. Acceptance has not been overwhelming, having leveled off at
about 2 percent of the labor force, according to the Bureau of Labor
Statistics. The failure rate of the compressed workweek is quite high,
in sharp contrast to flexitime experiments. Many companies seem to
have tried it; yet every survey shows a high percentage soon reverting
to the 5-day week.
— “Innovations in Working
Patterns,” Transatlantic
Perspectives, January 1981,
p. 29.
a
Research
Summaries
Native Americans in the labor force:
hunting for an accurate measure
Ju d it h K
l e in f e l d a n d
Jo h n A . K
r use
The concepts used nationally to assess labor force par
ticipation are considered to be inappropriate for Native
American population groups. The fundamental issue
concerns the measurement of unemployment. The Cur
rent Population Survey ( c p s ) defines an unemployed
person as someone who has no employment, is available
for work, and has engaged in some specific jobseeking
activity within the past 4 weeks. As the American
Indian Policy Review Commission points out, in many
Indian reservations and isolated Native villages, few
jobs are available.1 In these small communities the in
formal communications network provides excellent in
formation on new employment opportunities. Many
Indian and Eskimo adults do not actively seek work in
the conventional sense because they are well aware that
no work is available. To exclude these individuals from
the labor force results in a serious underestimation of
Native American unemployment and the available labor
pool. Moreover, this problem is not merely a technical
issue of measurement. Federal and State funds are allo
cated to regions on the basis of such employment statis
tics.
While the knowledge that no jobs exist may cause
significant members of Native Americans not to be
counted as members of the labor force, there is also evi
dence to suggest that many Native Americans in fact
drop out of the labor force intermittently in order to
meet community and family obligations, or to pursue
other activities such as hunting and fishing. For exam
ple, Harland Padfield and John van Willigen carefully
studied the activity patterns of a sample of 300 Papago
men.2 They found that 15 percent were “voluntarily
idle” in midsummer.
Attitude surveys also suggest substantial variability in
Native Americans’ work schedule preferences. AccordJudith Kleinfeld is a professor of psychology and John A. Kruse is an
associate professor of survey research at the University of Alaska,
Fairbanks.
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ing to some surveys, the majority of Indians and Eski
mos prefer long-term jobs, suggesting that it is teachers
and employers who incorrectly overestimate preferences
for seasonal work.3 However, these studies, as well as
other research, suggest considerable variability in prefer
ences for year-round and part-year wage work, not only
among different Native American population groups
but also among individuals in the same group.4 There
fore, the measurement problems associated with unem
ployment among Native Americans are not limited to
the discouraged worker effect; they also stem from real
desires not to work for wages during part of the year.
To overcome these problems, agencies and researchers
concerned with Native American populations have used
a variety of alternative concepts and measurement
approaches to assess unemployment. The Bureau of
Indian Affairs, for example, considers any Native adult
who does not hold a wage job to be “unemployed.”
Agency personnel roughly estimate unemployment in
some rural Native communities and reservations to be as
high as 50 to 80 percent. The American Indian Policy
Review Commission, suspecting that census figures un
derestimate and Bureau of Indian Affairs figures overes
timate Native American unemployment, suggested that
the 1980 census questions on unemployment should be
adapted to the situation of American Indians.5 The
Commission recommended that Indians be asked,
“When job opportunities occur, do you seek them?”
The 1980 Census Supplementary Questionnaire for
Indians, however, did not follow this recommendation.
The question on unemployment asks, “Of the weeks not
worked in 1979, how many weeks was this person ac
tively looking for work or on layoff from a job?” Previ
ous questions ask how many weeks the person worked
in 1979 and the main reason the person worked fewer
than 50 weeks. However, respondents have no socially
acceptable way of indicating that they prefer a lifestyle
combining intermittent participation in the wage econo
my with non-wage activities, such as subsistence hunt
ing and fishing. Such a response would be placed in the
category “did not want work,” which has negative con
notations, particularly for men without obvious home
responsibilities.
Without information on the size of the intermittent
worker effect, statistics on Indian and Eskimo employ47
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW July 1982 • Research Summaries
ment patterns are difficult to interpret. For example,
Benjamin Taylor and Dennis O’Connor, in a study of
five Indian reservations in the Southwest, point out that
“seasonal or irregular work characterizes a significant
part of reservation labor, ranging from 27 percent of
the working-age Zaguna tribe to 55 percent of the Fort
Apaches over 16 years of age.”6 However, it is not clear
to what extent these patterns are the result of personal
preference and to what extent they are caused by lack
of jobs and requisite skills.
Alaskan research
This paper discusses three Alaskan studies concerned
with measuring unemployment in Native American
groups. These studies suggest the importance of both a
“discouraged worker” and an “intermittent worker” ef
fect in understanding Native American employment
patterns. Standard national definitions of unemployment
substantially underestimate the proportion of Natives
who want work and are available for work. However,
our research also suggests that average labor force par
ticipation rates, at least among men, may remain sub
stantially below national norms even when high-paying
jobs at a variety of skill levels are available.
The first study was conducted in January 1977.7 The
Alaska Legislature, believing that official employment
statistics seriously understate unemployment in rural
Native communities, directed the State Department of
Labor to survey “real” unemployment in the Lower
Yukon-Kuskokwim Region. Income levels in the Eski
mo communities in this isolated area are among the
lowest in Alaska, and job opportunities are extremely
limited. Of available jobs, 44 percent are in government.
However, the region also has a strong noncash economy
based on subsistence fishing and hunting. In addition,
commercial fishing, trapping, and crafts are im portant
sources of cash income, although no statistics are avail
able on employment in these occupations.
Bilingual Eskimos interviewed 86 percent of the
working-age adult population (1,412 respondents) in
nine villages. They used a one-page form patterned on
the CPS. As in the CPS, one set of questions classified in
dividuals as “unemployed” if they were not working
and had “been looking for work during the past four
weeks.” However, the villagers were also asked about
desire for work. “Does the person want a regular job
now, either full or part-time?” Under the conventional
CPS definition, the unemployment rate in January 1977
was 24 percent. Under the broader definition, it was
48.8 percent.
While national surveys also yield higher jobless rates
when “discouraged workers” are included, these results
support the view that unemployment among Natives is
seriously underestimated. However, the specific survey
question used has some limitations.
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First, there is the problem of respondents presenting
themselves to an interviewer in a favorable light. Village
Eskimos in remote communities are well aware of the
majority culture’s work ethic, whether or not they per
sonally subscribe to it. Without an obviously acceptable
reason, such as child care responsibilities or poor
health, they might have been reluctant to tell the inter
viewer that they did not want to work at the time of
the survey.
Second, the question does not cover desired duration
of employment. In another household survey, which in
cluded some of the same communities, most of the 344
respondents indicated that they preferred to work only
certain months of the year. Those who wanted part-year
work generally did not want to be employed in the
spring or fall, seasons of intense subsistence activity.8
Indeed, some Eskimos may view wage work as a sec
ondary activity, a means to supplement hunting and
fishing. Thus, asking whether the individual wants a
“regular” job may miss a critical cultural difference in
labor force behavior.
North Slope boom
In the second study, funded by the National Science
Foundation, we examined the response of the Inupiat to
the new high paying job opportunities on the North
Slope in 1977.9 A previous study of Native employment
directly associated with the trans-Alaska pipeline proj
ect found that many Natives had worked for only 8
weeks or less despite the high pay.10During informal in
terviews, Native respondents cited work camps located
away from home, the heavy 10-hour, 7-day workweek,
bigotry against Natives by white coworkers, and alleged
poor use of Native workers by the companies, as disin
centives to longer employment tenure."
On the North Slope, however, oil and gas develop
ment created a situation which eliminated or modified
many of these perceived barriers to long-term employ
ment. The jobs resulted not so much from direct oilfield
activities at Prudhoe Bay as from the formation of an
Inupiat government, the North Slope Borough, in 1972.
The borough, encompassing eight Inupiat villages and a
population of about 4,000, levied property taxes on the
Prudhoe Bay oil complex. Revenues grew from less
than $1 million in 1973 to about $57 million in 1977.
The borough transformed these tax revenues into jobs
adapted to contemporary Inupiat lifestyles. It launched
a $511 million capital improvements program, which re
sulted in large numbers of skilled and unskilled con
struction jobs. Borough government and school district
operations also employed large numbers of white-collar
workers. By 1977, the borough alone employed about
800 workers in administration, education, and construc
tion.
The government established a strong local hire pro-
gram and was willing to absorb substantial cost
overruns to employ local Inupiat. To minimize conflicts
between wage work and subsistence, the borough
granted leaves of absence for subsistence activities and
was tolerant of absenteeism. It paid high wages, with
construction pay matching the wage scales established
during the building of the trans-Alaska pipeline. The
average wage of Inupiat adults in 1977 was almost $500
per week, and about 25 percent received paychecks of
$800 or more. Yet, borough jobs did not require work
ers to leave home, give up subsistence activities, cope
with bigotry, or deal with an uncomfortable, non-Native environment.
The borough did not succeed in making jobs avail
able to all Inupiat adults in each of the eight villages
during the entire year. However, in certain situations,
such as in Barrow (the large regional center), jobs were
readily available to anyone who wanted wage work dur
ing the summer construction season.
The North Slope study examined the question— un
der these unusually favorable labor market conditions
did the labor force participation rate of Inupiat men
and women approach national norms? Or did special
cultural factors result in lower labor force participation
despite the availability of good jobs and the presence of
loosely structured work rules?
Inupiat interviewers conducted a household survey in
Barrow and five smaller communities in late 1977. We
had randomly selected one adult from each village
household and one adult from a 50-percent sample of
Barrow households. The final sample consisted of 290
persons, 75 percent of the adults contacted, and repre
sented 21 percent of the adult population. In our labor
force analysis, we excluded persons age 16 to 18 and 55
and older so that cultural differences in school atten
dance and retirement ages would not affect comparisons
with national labor force patterns.
Those interviewed were asked for a work history
from October 1976 to September 1977. Persons who did
not hold any paying job during the year were asked
whether there were special reasons that prevented them
from working. To measure monthly unemployment the
survey asked, “Were there months between October
1976 and September 1977 when you wanted a job and
didn’t have one? (If yes) What months were they?” This
measure of unemployment was, of course, a broad defi
nition, which counted a person as “unemployed” if he
or she stated a desire for wage work regardless of spe
cific jobseeking activity.
In analyzing the data, it quickly became apparent
that many Inupiat did not say they wanted wage work
during all the months they did not work. Some were
nonwage earners, whose family responsibilities or health
problems prevented them from taking employment.
However, many were intermittent workers who worked
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at wage jobs part of the year. In addition, when asked
about work schedule preferences, slightly more than
half of both men and women said they wanted some
form of part-year work.
This preference for part-year work was even stronger
among North Slope Inupiat high school students, partic
ularly male students.12In this small survey, our question
on work preferences contained a socially acceptable al
ternative to year-round wage work (“After you have fin
ished your schooling, do you want a year-round job or
to work only part of the year so you can hunt and fish a
lot, or don’t you want a job?”). None of the students
stated they didn’t want a wage job at all. However, of
the 75 male students, 69 percent preferred a part-year
job compared to 41 percent of the 99 female students.
When we measured annual average labor force partic
ipation,13 Inupiat adult women approached national
norms, particularly the young women. However,
Inupiat male labor force participation at all ages was
far below national norms.
The major reason for the lower male labor force par
ticipation was that most men were blue-collar workers.
When particular construction projects ended in their
villages, they were laid off. Substantial layoffs occurred
in the winter of 1976-77, when the borough cut back
on its construction program because of financing diffi
culties. However, intensive construction work resumed
in the summer of 1977. This increase in job opportuni
ties led to a dramatic increase in male labor force par
ticipation, which rose from a low of 47 percent in
November 1976 to a high of 74 percent in September
1977.
Yet, even when good job opportunities were abun
dant, Inupiat male labor force participation remained
well below national norms. In Barrow, for example, la
bor force participation of Inupiat men age 18-55
peaked at only 76 percent in the summer of 1977. Of
the 24 percent who were not in the labor force, just 10
percent were nonwage earners and most of these had
health problems. The remainder were intermittent work
ers who chose not to work during the month.
In short, the North Slope study suggests that the ma
jor factor influencing Native American labor force
participation is indeed the availability of good jobs.
Yet, even under highly favorable circumstances, cultural
preferences result in labor force participation rates be
low national norms, at least among men.
Although our North Slope research results suggested
that the number of intermittent workers is significant,
we could not precisely measure the number of such
workers. We had asked retrospectively what months in
dividuals were without work but wanted it. However,
people may have forgotten specific months. We
attempted to remedy this problem in a subsequent
study by including a question which asked explicitly
49
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW July 1982 • Research Summaries
whether individuals did not want work in particular
months.
Regional surveys
In 1979, we cooperated with several Federal and
State agencies to conduct a broad survey of recreation,
employment, and other community issues in randomly
sampled households in the Interior, Southcentral, and
Southeast regions of Alaska. Each regional survey
included the urban center, surrounding small Native
and other communities, and rural Native villages. The
Native sample consisted of 335 respondents represent
ing Eskimo, Aleut, Athabascan, and Tlingit cultural
groups.14
The survey questions concerning employment were
essentially the same as in the North Slope study. How
ever, in addition to asking each respondent which
months during the previous year “did you want a job
but did not have one,” respondents were also asked,
“Which, if any, months between April 1978 and March
1979 did you decide not to work?” Thus, the decision
to withdraw temporarily from the labor force was mea
sured directly rather than being inferred as a residual
category.
The results show that rural Natives specifically did
not want to work during an average of 1.4 months of
the year. The particular months specified varied by re
gion. In the Interior, peak withdrawal occurred in Au
gust (17 percent); in Southcentral, the peak was in
October (9 percent); and in Southeast, it was January
through March (8 percent). However, even with these
explicit answers, there remained a large residual of Na
tives who were not working at wage jobs and who stat
ed neither that they wanted work nor that they did not
want work in a particular month. This residual ranged
from 12 percent in the Interior to 8 percent in
Southcentral Alaska. If we assume this group would
take work if jobs were available, 29 percent in Interior,
18 percent in Southcentral, and 24 percent in Southeast
were unemployed. If we assume this group was not in
terested in wage work, although reluctant to say so, un
employment rates would drop to 17 percent in the
Interior, 10 percent in Southcentral, and 13 percent in
Southeast. The use of these series of questions to esti
mate annual average unemployment results in a bracket
around the “true” proportion of Native American un
employment. Whichever estimate is used, it is obvious
that serious levels of unemployment exist in these re
gions.
Thus, even by providing a means for respondents to
differentiate between unemployment and temporary
withdrawal from the work force, our estimate of unem
ployment remains imprecise. However, in these Native
American population groups the nature of unemploy
ment itself is imprecise. Some adults shift in and out of
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wage work depending on job availability, immediate
need for cash, and what other options exist at the time.
It is, of course, possible to develop a series of questions
which unambiguously assigns adults to a labor force
category each month. Indeed, in an exploratory study,
we attempted to ask Native respondents about their ac
tivities in the wage and nonwage sectors and whether
they wanted employment on a month-by-month basis.
This measurement approach, however, worked badly.
Native adults resented and resisted having their activi
ties categorized in these ways. Such a survey approach
was perceived as too intrusive. It made too obvious the
number of months adults were not engaged in some
“productive” activity by majority culture definitions.
Conclusions
Taken together, these studies confirm that the stan
dard definition of unemployment results in a serious un
derestimation of the number of Native Americans who
want wage work. The availability of local employment
opportunities, or the lack of them, are well known and
largely determine whether individuals actively look for
work. At the same time, these studies suggest that sig
nificant numbers of Native Americans chose to work
intermittently in the wage economy, although the pro
portion of such worker is likely to vary among cultural
groups. Both the “discouraged worker” effect and the
“intermittent worker” effect makes it quite difficult to
measure Native American labor force participation.
We can offer no simple solution to the problem of
how to measure unemployment in Native American
population groups heavily involved in a nonwage as
well as a cash economy. Two general points emerge
from our analyses:
• Questions designed to measure unemployment among
transitional Native groups should present a choice be
tween wage work and socially prestigious alternatives
in the local cultural situation. Native Americans are
aware of the majority culture work ethic and can be
reluctant to indicate that they are not employed and
do not want wage work.
• Studies of Native American labor force patterns
should recognize the possibility of preferences for
part-year versus year-round work (in addition to
part-time versus full-time jobs) and should include
questions to assess during how much of the year and
at which times individuals want wage work.
The specific measurement approach we have devel
oped (asking adults which months they were employed,
which months they wanted work, and which months
they did not want work) results in a range, rather than
a single estimate, of unemployment. About 10 percent
of Native adults who are not working in particular
months do not place themselves in the alternative work-
do not want work categories. This ambiguity, however,
may reflect the actual vagueness of unemployment
among individuals who maintain a lifestyle combining
economic activity in both the modern and traditional
sectors in the context of extended families who provide
mutual economic support. It is perhaps unrealistic to
expect that precise answers to questions on unemploy
ment can be found in this cultural context.
□
FOOTNOTES
1Mary Ellen Ayres, “Federal Indian policy and labor statistics— a
review essay,” M o n th ly L a b o r R eview , April 1978, pp. 22-27.
2Harland Padfield and John van Willigen, “Work and income pat
terns in a transitional population: the Papago of Arizona,” H u m an
O rganization, March 1969.
3 Derek G. Smith, O ccupational Preferences o f N orthern S tu den ts
(Ottawa, Canada: Northern Economic Development Branch, 1974);
and N a tive People's Perceptions o f Factors A ssociated with Job A ccep
tance a n d R etention (Ottawa: Department of Indian Affairs and
Northern Development, Northern Affairs Branch, 1974).
4 Note the differences in preferences for year-round work expressed
in a survey of diverse Alaska Native population groups in Alaska De
partment of Transportation and Public Facilities, W estern a n d A rctic
A la sk a Transportation S tu d y, August 1980.
5“Federal Indian policy . . . ,” p. 25.
6 Benjamin J. Taylor and Dennis J. O’Connor, In dian M an pow er
R esources in the Southw est: A P ilo t S tu d y (Arizona State University,
1969), p. 354.
7 Rod Brown, Jeff Hadland, Scott Hannigan, and Stanley D. Bur
rows, L o w er Y uk o n -K u sk o k w im Region L a b o r M a rk e t A n alysis (Alaska
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Department of Labor, 1981).
8 Western a n d A rctic A laska Transportation Study.
’ Judith Kleinfeld, Jack Kruse, and Robert Travis, D ifferent Paths
o f In u piat M en a n d W omen in the W age E conom y (University of Alas
ka: Institute of Social and Economic Research, 1981).
10Larry L. Naylor and Lawrence A. Gooding, A laska N ative H ire
on the T rans-A laska O il Pipeline Project (University of Alaska: Insti
tute of Social and Economic Research, 1978).
" Ibid.
12Judith Kleinfeld and Jack Kruse, H igh School: Views o f N orth
Slope Borough S tu den ts (University of Alaska: Institute of Social and
Economic Research, 1977).
13We treated a respondent as being in the labor force in a given
month if he or she held a job for 2 weeks or more during the month
or wanted wage work during the month. Those who did not work at
all during the year or did not mention that they wanted work during
a month they were not working were treated as out of the labor force
for that month.
14Alaska Public Survey, unpublished results (University of Alaska,
Institute of Social and Economic Research, 1981).
51
M ajor Agreements
Expiring Next M onth
This list of collective bargaining agreements expiring in August is based on contracts on file in the
Bureau’s Office of Wages and Industrial Relations. The list includes agreements covering 1,000
workers or more.
Employer and location
Industry
Number of
workers
Labor organization 1
Alabama Dry Dock and Shipbuilding Co. (Mobile, A l a . ) ..............................
American Airlines, G round Service (Interstate)2 ..............................................
American Standard, Inc., Wabco Construction Equipment (Peoria, 111.) . .
Associated General C ontractors of America, Inc., Building Construction
Agreement (Alabama)
Transportation equipment . . . .
Air tra n s p o rta tio n .....................
Machinery ...................................
C o n stru ctio n ................................
Marine and Shipbuilding Workers . . .
Transport W o rk e rs ...................................
B oilerm akers..............................................
Bricklayers; Carpenters; Laborers; Iron
Workers; Engineers; Teamsters (Ind.)
Bowman Transportation, Inc. (In te rsta te )...........................................................
Bucyrus-Erie Co. (Indiana, Pennsylvania, and W isco n sin )..............................
Trucking ......................................
Machinery ...................................
Steelw orkers..............................................
Steelw orkers..............................................
2,100
2,000
Cluett, Peabody and Co., Inc., Arrow Co. Division (In te rs ta te )...................
A p p a r e l........................................
Clothing and Textile Workers
.............
4,600
Eagle Electric M anufacturing Co., Inc. and Eagle Plastics Corp.
(New York)
Electrical p ro d u c ts ......................
A uto Workers ( I n d .)................................
1,500
Flexsteel Industries, Inc. (Iowa, Pennsylvania, and Texas)
...........................
F u r n itu r e ......................................
U p h o ls te re rs ..............................................
1,000
Gates R ubber Co. (Denver, Colo.) ......................................................................
G oodyear Aerospace Corp. (Akron, O h i o ) ........................................................
Rubber ........................................
Transportation equipment . . . .
Rubber Workers ......................................
Auto W orkers (I n d .) ................................
2,650
1,300
Illinois Food Retailers Association, Independent Food S to r e s ......................
Retail trade
Food and Commercial W o r k e r s ...........
4,350
Knitgoods Agreement (Ohio)3 ..............................................................................
T e x tile ...........................................
Ladies’s G arment Workers
...................
1,050
New York Telephone Company ...........................................................................
C om m unication ...........................
8,300
Pittsburgh Forgings Co., Greenville Steel Car Co. (Pennsylvania) .............
Publix Shirt Corp. (Interstate) ..............................................................................
Transportation equipment . . . .
A p p a r e l........................................
Telephone Traffic Union (New York)
(Ind.)
A uto Workers (I n d .) ................................
Clothing and Textile Workers .............
Sun Harvest, Inc. (C alifo rn ia).................................................................................
Agricultural p ro d u c ts ................
Farm W o rk e rs ...........................................
1,350
Textron, Inc., Fafnir Bearing Division (New Britain, C o n n .) ........................
Machinery ...................................
Auto Workers ( I n d .) ................................
3,200
3M Company, M innesota Mining and M anufacturing Co. Division
(St. Paul, Minn.)
Stone, clay, and glass products
Oil, Chemical and Atomic Workers
. .
1,850
1,350
................................
Government activity
M u ltid e p artm e n t........................
Pennsylvania: Philadelphia Board of E d u c a tio n ................................................
E d u c a tio n ......................................
Los Angeles County Building and
Construction Trades Council
T e a c h e rs ......................................................
Washington: Seattle Police D e p a r tm e n t..............................................................
Public s a f e ty ................................
Seattle Police Officers Guild (Ind.)
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
1,000
1,000
Labor organization1
California: Los Angeles County Building Trades and Skilled Craftsmen . .
1Affiliated with A FL -C IO except where noted as independent (Ind.).
2Information is from newspaper reports.
3Industry area (group of companies signing same contract).
1,200
12,450
1,000
8,000
18,000
1,050
Developments in
Industrial Relations
Goodrich pact sets pattern for industry
B.F. Goodrich Co. and the Rubber Workers negotiat
ed a 3-year contract that set a pattern for settlements at
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. and Firestone Tire &
Rubber Co. The terms also affected employees of
Uniroyal, Inc., who had earlier agreed to accept the
same provisions as in the pattern-setting settlement,
modified to the extent necessary to reduce the cost by
$18.3 million a year. (See Monthly Labor Review, March
1982, p. 47.)
The Goodrich contract did not provide for any speci
fied wage increases, but the employees will continue to
receive quarterly automatic cost-of-living pay adjust
ments calculated at 1 cent an hour for each 0.26-point
movement in the Consumer Price Index. The union said
the formula would yield about $2.44 in wage increases
during the contract term, assuming a 7-percent annual
rise in the CPI.
Benefit improvements included a $ 1.50-increase in the
pension rate, bringing it to $16.50 a month for each
year of credited service; a $60-a-week increase in the
sickness and accident benefit, bringing it to $185; and a
6-month increase in the 24-month period during which
laid off employees retain their life and health insurance.
The contract calls for establishment of a medical sur
veillance program to attain early detection of job-relat
ed health problems. The program will be financed by a
company payment of 2 cents an hour.
An Early Action Committee will be established to
help avert plant closings. The parties also agreed that
the Rubber Workers’ president will consult with the
company president on plant closings and other prob
lems. The agreement applied to 6,700 Goodrich employ
ees at five plants.
About 2,000 workers at the company’s industrial
products plant in Akron, Ohio accepted a smaller pack
age in return for company assurance that the operation
will continue for at least 3 more years. Goodrich also
“Developments in Industrial Relations” is prepared by George Ruben
of the Division of Developments in Labor-Management Relations,
Bureau of Labor Statistics, and is largely based on information from
secondary sources.
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
agreed to establish a profit-sharing plan for the workers.
The Akron employees will receive the same benefit
improvements as those at the other plants but their pay
was cut 27 cents an hour immediately, and will be cut
an additional 27 cents in the second and third years if
the facility continues to operate at a loss. Also they will
not receive any cost-of-living pay adjustments during
the entire term, regardless of operating results. Good
rich said that the plant, which once employed 11,000
people, has been losing $1 million a month for the last
2 years.
The Goodyear accord did not provide for a medical
surveillance program. The Goodyear settlement covered
16,000 workers at 13 locations and the Firestone settle
ment covered 10,500 workers at 10 plants.
Harvester accord features profit-sharing plan
International Harvester Co.’s efforts to return to
profitability were enhanced when the Auto Workers
agreed to a new contract that a company official said,
bears a “family resemblance” to the concessions negoti
ated by General Motors Corp. and Ford M otor Co.
(See Monthly Labor Review, May 1982, p. 59.)
The Harvester accord, like the two automobile agree
ments, did not provide for any specified wage increases
over its 29-month term, called for 18-month deferrals of
each of the first three quarterly cost-of-living adjust
ments that would have been effective in 1982, and elimi
nated some paid personal holidays.
The profit-sharing plan adopted at Harvester differed
from that in the auto agreements. Union vice president
Stephen Yokich said that under Harvester’s plan, work
ers will receive part of every dollar of profit earned by
the company during the fiscal years beginning Novem
ber 1 of 1982 and 1983. (At Ford and GM, workers par
ticipate only if profits exceed specified levels.) However,
there were no indications that there would be a profit to
share. Company chairman and chief executive officer
Archie McCardell, who resigned shortly after the settle
ment, predicted a loss of more than $500 million for the
current fiscal year. Harvester lost a total of $790 million
during the 2 preceding years. If Harvester shows a prof
it, and the earnings exceed $300 million in two succes53
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW July 1982 • Developments in Industrial Relations
sive quarters, the agreement is subject to reopening on
economic issues.
Other terms of the settlement called for Harvester to
infuse $6 million into the Supplemental Unemployment
Benefit plan; for adoption of a plan to assure employ
ment opportunities, job security, and greater worker in
volvement in corporate decisions; and for stronger
employee protections on potential plant closings and
contracting out of work.
According to Yokich, Harvester’s management prom
ised union bargainers that the company would become
a model of good labor relations and would strive to
“absolutely set the standard (in the industry) for good
will” with its workers. Some industry observers have at
tributed Harvester’s financial problems to the bitter
1979 confrontation between the union and company,
which culminated in a 6-month strike, and to adverse
economic conditions that also hit other manufacturers
of farm and construction equipment and trucks.
The new pact supersedes the balance of the contract
scheduled to expire September 30, 1982. About 20,000
active employees at plants in nine states are covered;
10,000 others from the bargaining unit were on layoff.
Overall company employment was less than 65,000,
compared with 93,000 in 1979, when the previous con
tract was negotiated.
American Motors, UAW concession accord
Wage concession bargaining continued in the auto
mobile industry, as American Motors Corp. and the
Auto Workers negotiated a new contract that featured
an Employee Investment Plan, under which the 14,000
workers will lend the company about $110 million by
deferring normal wage and benefit provisions. Raymond
Majerus, head of the union’s American Motors Depart
ment, said the loan will provide the company with
money needed to develop “a new line of high quality
autos.” He expects American Motors workers to recoup
their losses before the expiration date of the contract,
unlike workers at General Motors Corp. and Ford Mo
tor Co. (For an account of GM and Ford concessions,
see Monthly Labor Review, May 1982, pp. 59-60 and
April 1982, p. 62.)
The money will be accumulated by “banking,” paid
time off and by deferring pay increases:
• The effective date of 3 percent pay increases that
would normally have been effective in September of
1982 and 1983 were deferred until January 1985 (a
3-percent increase that would normally have been ef
fective in September 1984 was eliminated);
• The six quarterly automatic cost-of-living adjust
ments that would have normally been effective in
March, June, September, and December of 1982 and
54 FRASER
Digitized for
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in March and June of 1983 will be deferred to De
cember 3, 1984 (however, if the total calculated
amounts of these adjustments exceed $1.20 an hour,
the excess will be paid on the normal quarterly ad
justment date).
• Employees will “bank” 21 days of pay until 1985 by
giving up 5 days of holiday or vacation pay in 1982,
8 days in 1983, and 8 days in 1984.
• The effective dates of certain benefits will be delayed
for new employees.
The amount that the workers lose by deferring wage
increases and “banking” will be repaid, with 10 percent
compound interest, beginning in 1985 and concluding
not later than 1989, even if the company is operating at
a loss.
For repayment purposes, American Motors will allo
cate an amount equal to either 25 percent of its auto
motive profits (during the preceding year) or all profit
in excess of 4 percent of sales, whichever is greater. If
there is no profit, or if the profit is too small for repay
ment purposes, the union can opt for a formula calling
for the company to repay $100 for each of the first
200.000 vehicles and $150 for each additional vehicle
produced in the United States and Canada in a year, in
addition to 10 percent of company profits.
In return for the concessions, the company agreed to
keep the plants open until the September 1985 termina
tion date of the contract, except in the “gravest eco
nomic circumstances.” The plants are in Toledo, Ohio,
and Milwaukee and Kenosha, Wise. Also, it pledged to
conduct all employment cutbacks— except those result
ing from reduced sales— through attrition; notify the
union 60 days before any major “outsourcing” (con
tracting out) decisions; apply wage and benefit cost-sav
ing measures to nonunion employees and reduce the
number of supervisors; adopt a company-financed legal
services plan; and reopen the agreement if more than
300.000 a m c and Renault vehicles are produced or
imported in any 6 consecutive months.
The new contract supersedes the balance of an agree
ment scheduled to expired in September 1983. Current
ly, Chrysler Corp. is the only “Big Four” automaker
left to settle with the UAW in 1982.
Amtrak agreements deviate from pattern
In the rail passenger service industry, Amtrak
reached agreements with six unions for 10,000 employ
ees and bargaining was continuing with nine other
unions for 7,000 other workers. Union officials said that
the accords were similar to the pattern settlements ne
gotiated by 10 rail unions in 1981 (see Monthly Labor
Review, January 1982, p. 24) except for several provi
sions that were included in the Amtrak agreements be-
cause of congressional mandates for increased efficiency.
According to an Amtrak official, the deviations from
the pattern included somewhat smaller pay increases,
changes in work rules, reductions in overhead, and
changes intended to improve “on time performances.”
The unions involved in the settlements were the Mainte
nance of Way Employees; Railway and Airline Clerks;
Electrical Workers ( i b e w ); Boilermakers and Black
smiths; Machinists; and the Transport Workers and
Railway Carmen, who bargain jointly.
High court finds two schools guilty of job bias
In a case involving two public school systems, the
Supreme Court ruled that a 1972 law banning discrimi
nation in federally financed educational programs also
applies to school employment practices. The issue arose
when the former Department of Health, Education and
Welfare attempted to withhold funds from the schools,
located in North Haven and Trumbull, Connecticut, to
force them to comply with the 1972 law banning dis
crimination in education. Initially, a Federal judge had
held that the law did not apply, but an appeals court
backed the Federal agency’s position, leading the
schools to appeal to the Supreme Court.
Writing for the 6-member majority, Justice Harry
Blackmun said that while the law does apply to school
employment discrimination, the fund cutoff must be
limited to the particular program or part of a program
actually receiving the aid. This means that the lower
court must determine if the funds were so diffused
throughout the two school systems that the cutoff
should apply to the entire systems.
Company ordered to pay value of concessions
A Federal district judge ruled that the Singer Co.
must pay damages to Local 461 of the International
Union of Electrical Workers if it closes its Elizabeth,
N.J., plant. The local had agreed to labor cost conces
sions in 1981 in return for a pledge that the facility
would be kept open. (See Monthly Labor Review, May
1982, p. 61, for the closing announcement.) Judge Her
bert J. Stern found that the contract did not contain a
promise that the sewing machine plant would be kept
open, and that Singer, therefore, has the right to close
the plant. However, he ruled that the company was lia
ble for the approximately $2 million value of the con
cessions to date.
A&P wins concessions in local bargaining
The Great Atlantic and Pacific Tea Co. was success
ful in its new strategy of seeking labor-cost concessions
in local bargaining, as workers in the Philadelphia area
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
agreed to contract changes that will result in the re
opening of “a large number” of stores. A&P had closed
about 75 stores in the area during the preceding 12
months. The company adopted the local bargaining
strategy after the United Food and Commercial Work
ers rejected its proposals for companywide concessions.
(See Monthly Labor Review, June 1982, p. 64.) A&P in
dicated that it would form a subsidiary, Super Fresh
Food Centers, Inc., to operate the reopened stores.
Company chairman James A. Wood said the subsidiary
would operate under a “unique collective bargaining
agreement” that would include “incentives and invest
ment programs” for the union members.
Apartment house workers settle
In New York City, 30,000 employees of 3,500 apart
ment buildings were covered by a settlement between
the Service Employees and the Realty Advisory Board.
Wage terms included an immediate raise of $24 a week,
a $21-increase in the second year, and $20 in the final
year. The cost-of-living adjustment formula was revised
to provide for pay increases of 4 cents an hour (former
ly 3) for each percentage point rise above 8.5 percent in
the Consumer Price Index for New York, N.Y.—
Northeastern, N.J.
Benefit provisions included an 11th paid holiday—
with individual employees given the choice of selecting
Good Friday, Yom Kippur, or the birthday of Dr.
Martin Luther King Jr.; and full pay (instead of 70 per
cent) for unused sick leave.
Insurance companies offer early retirement
Three major insurance companies offered special early
retirement inducements to 3,600 employees to help re
duce operating costs in the face of a slowdown in sales
resulting from increased competition and the economic
recession. Two of the companies— Metropolitan Life
Insurance Co. and Continental Corp.— indicated that
the retirement inducements were an alternative to possi
ble layoffs.
At Metropolitan, the offer applied to 500 workers at
its New York City and San Francisco regional head
quarters. The workers, most of them in their fifties,
were offered payments of up to 1.5 years of salary as an
inducement to early retirement. The company also re
ported that it eliminated 9,000 sales agent jobs through
attrition during the last 10 years.
At Continental, 900 of 1,400 eligible employees had
already accepted the offer, which included lump-sum
payments up to 6 months’ pay plus special pension sup
plements continuing to age 62.
Prudential Insurance Co.’s offer to 1,700 workers in
cluded cash payments of up to a year of salary. About
55
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW July 1982 • Developments in Industrial Relations
300 to 400 workers are expected to accept the offer. The
company said that early retirement would relieve “sur
plus staffing” and also open promotions to more women
and members of minority groups.
Workweek reduced for State employees
Idaho Governor John Evans ordered a 20-percent
reduction in the workweek and pay of more than 3,000
State employees to help balance the budget for the fiscal
year that ended June 30. The cut lasted 7 weeks and
applied only to workers paid from the State’s general
fund; about 10,000 other workers were not affected. The
balance of the $12 million shortfall was to be made up
by deferring purchases, restricting travel, and a hiring
freeze. The deficit resulted from reduced tax collections.
UFW, Teamsters again settle jurisdictional dispute
Renewal of jurisdictional disputes between the United
Farm Workers and the Teamsters over organizing agri
cultural workers in California and other Western States
was averted when a peace treaty, scheduled to expire in
March, was extended for 1 year. The original 5-year
treaty, signed in 1977, ended a struggle between the
unions that began about 10 years earlier. (See Monthly
Labor Review, May 1977, pp. 57-58). Under the agree
ment, the Farm Workers organize workers engaged in
growing agricultural products and the Teamsters orga
nize workers engaged in processing, preserving, and
transporting farm products.
Prior to announcement of the agreement extension,
Farm Workers’ President Cesar Chavez had blamed the
Teamsters for his union’s financial and operating diffi
culties. A Teamsters’ official said that if his union
stayed out of farm labor, “it will give the lie to those
who say we Teamsters are to blame for the weakening
or the end of the UFW .”
State employees get raise, minus 2 weeks of pay
About 165,000 employees of New York State were
covered by 3-year agreements that provided similar
overall gains in wages and benefits. All of the contracts
provided for adoption of delays in paydays that were
expected to save the State $88 million this fiscal year.
One of the settlements involved 107,000 administra
tive, clerical, and blue-collar employees represented by
the Civil Service Employees Association. It provided for
56 FRASER
Digitized for
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
a 9-percent pay increase on April 1, 1982, and for 5
percent increases on April 1 and September 1 of 1983
and 1984. These employees previously averaged $11,395
a year. To help minimize the immediate cost of this ac
cord, which also called for benefit improvements, the
union agreed to a 2-week lag in payrolls. Under this
procedure, paychecks will be delayed 1 additional day
in each biweekly pay period, resulting in a cumulative
delay of 10 workdays. At retirement, workers will be
paid for the 10 days at the pay rates they are then re
ceiving.
In a change sought by the union, the parties agreed
to end a performance evaluation system which tied
workers’ pay to managements’ assessment of their work.
Instead, the parties agreed to return to the prior system,
under which all workers in a particular grade will re
ceive the same increase, if their individual performance
is at least satisfactory.
The second settlement, covering 47,000 professional,
scientific, and technical workers, provided for a 9-per
cent salary increase effective April 1, 1982, and for 8
percent increases on each of the next two anniversaries.
This settlement, negotiated by the Public Employees
Federation, also provided that workers hired after
March 31, 1982, accrue 10 days of sick leave and 3
days of personal leave a year, while those already on
the payroll will continue to accrue 13 days of sick leave
and 5 days of personal leave.
The final settlement, with Council 82 of the State,
County and Municipal Employees, provided for essen
tially the same provisions as those won by the Civil Ser
vice Employees Association. One difference was that the
witholding of 2 weeks of pay will be accomplished by
paying employees for 9Yi days (instead of 10 days) for
20 consecutive pay periods.
Ship pilots get pay increase
The 39 pilots who maneuver ships on the lower Co
lumbia River will earn about $90,000 a year (an 11-per
cent increase) as a result of a decision by the Oregon
Board of Maritime Pilots. The pilots earnings now are
calculated at 6.2 cents per registered ton and $9.35 per
draft foot, rising by 10 percent each in February 1983.
In addition, they will receive a surcharge of $100 for
each 50 feet of ship length above 699 feet. The pilots
handled an average of 133 ships in 1980. Similar in
creases were being considered for other ship pilots in
the area.
□
Book Reviews
Social policies for the aging
The Elderly and the Future Economy. By Lawrence
Olsen, Christopher Caton, and Martin Duffy, with
contributions by Michael Shannon and Robert
Tannenwald. Lexington, Mass., D. C. Heath and
Co., Lexington Books, 1981. 143 pp., bibliography.
$19.95.
This book was prepared by Lawrence Olsen,
Christopher Caton, and Martin Duffy, all members of
the staff of Data Resources, Inc. ( d r i ), to supplement
the work of the Technical Committee on the Economy
of the recent 1981 White House Conference on Aging.
Using forecasting techniques based on two simulation
models, the authors attempt to assess the general mac
roeconomic outlook for the period 1980 through 2005,
how various age groups in the population will fare dur
ing this time period, and the effect on both the income
position and status of both elderly and nonelderly indi
viduals and families if four policy options, or a mix
thereof, were to be enacted and put into operation over
the next 25 years or so.
The four policy options selected for analysis were (1)
increased labor force participation of “elderly” workers
(age 65 and over) and “nonelderly” workers (age 5564); (2) a national income guarantee program for the el
derly; (3) an increase in personal saving rates by the
nonelderly beginning in 1981, and (4) “investment-ori
ented” corporate tax cuts, also beginning in 1981. No
detailed rationale is provided for the selection of these
options, only one of which is an income transfer pro
posal.
After introductory and review of the literature chap
ters, chapter 3 outlines the DRI baseline simulation
model of the economy through 2005. It forecasts slower
rates of increase for both the GNP and consumption
growth than experienced over the past two decades,
only a slow moderation of inflation, and a slowing of
the real-income growth of the elderly, at least when
compared to the past decade or so. While the real in
come of the elderly as a group is projected to show
some gains, the baseline model forecasts that significant
numbers of the elderly population will have low in
comes well into the 21st century. A welcome highlight
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of chapter 3 is the explanation and discussion of the
two models, the DRI Macroeconomic Model and the
DRI Demographic-Economic Model of the Elderly. The
latter was used to project trends in elderly and
nonelderly income by various age groups (under age 55,
55-61, 62-64, 65-71, and 72 and over), by family status
and income level. The authors are to be commended for
the complete income distribution tables for each of
these age groups, discussed in both the text and the ap
pendices material.
The next four chapters cover the aforementioned poli
cy options and their macroeconomic effects as well as
their effects on income and its distribution between
nonelderly and elderly individuals and families. Chapter
4 assesses the effect of increased labor force participa
tion by older people, and both the macroeconomic and
income status of the elderly show some general im
provement under this option, although the very oldest
and the poorest benefit little. Chapter 5 examines the ef
fects of guaranteeing the elderly an adequate level of in
come beginning in 1981. Interestingly, the minimum
standard for income adequacy was the Bureau of Labor
Statistics’ “Intermediate Budget Level for a Retired
Couple in 1979 ($8,562),” and indexed annually thereaf
ter. While the initial annual cost of such an income
guarantee is high, some $18 billion the first year, it
would have only minimal effects on the economy as a
whole, and, of course, prove to be a highly effective
mechanism for assuring income adequacy to elderly
families and individuals in greatest economic need.
Chapters 6 and 7 discuss options that, in some ways,
have either already been implemented or are among the
objectives of the Reagan Administration. Chapter 6 an
alyzes the effects of a personal saving-rate increase by
nonelderly workers of about 2-percent higher than the
saving rate variable built into the DRI Macroeconomic
Model. The personal savings option would lead, accord
ing to D Rl’s analyses, to an appreciable growth of the
real gross national product, especially from the period
1986 on. However, gains for the elderly are projected as
being slow under this option; not until the year 2000
would the average real income of the elderly population
rise above its baseline amount. In chapter 7, invest
ment-oriented corporate tax cuts are analyzed. While
57
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW July 1982 • Book Reviews
economic growth substantially increases under this op
tion, DRI points out that in the absence of new transfer
initiatives, the elderly benefit less from the economic im
provements that would result from this option than
younger age groups. And, DRI emphasizes that this
would be especially true for the poorest and the oldest
among the older population.
The final chapter compares the various options with
each other and with the baseline macroeconomic model.
The authors argue for some mix of the various options
discussed, although they point out that the greatest
gains for the elderly would take place under either an
increase in the labor force participation rates of the el
derly and near elderly and, of course, the income guar
antee option pegged to the BLS Intermediate Budget
Level. It is a carefully written and analytical discussion
that should aid policymakers at the national level, and
those attempting to influence them, with a more sophis
ticated understanding of these options, their specific
policy implications, and their effect on the economy as
a whole.
Appendix A should also be mentioned. It includes
the various assumptions used in the development of D R l’s
Macroeconomic simulation, including assumptions in
such areas as labor force growth, employment and un
employment growth and rates, energy and energy poli
cy, fiscal policy, consumption expenditures, housing,
business investment, State and local spending, and pro
ductivity.
If one can assume that there is a fair degree of reli
ability in the basic DRI Macroeconomic Models and
their Demographic-Economic Model, then this book
may break some new ground insofar as social policy in
the broad field of aging is concerned. The book should
be particularly attractive to those working in the field of
public retirement income programs, as legislators or
policy analysts, including those analysts now working
in various organizations attempting to influence national
retirement income policy.
— W
il l ia m
D.
B e c h il l
D ir ec to r, A g in g A d m in istra tio n P rogram
S c h o o l o f S o cial W ork a n d C o m m u n ity P la n n in g
U n iv e r sity o f M a rly a n d
Another look at labor market theory
Labor Economics: The Emerging Synthesis. By Robert
M. Fearn. Cambridge, Mass., Winthrop Publishers,
1981. 278 pp. $14.50.
Robert Fearn, it appears, is determined to make eco
nomic labor market theory come alive. This book is
among the new order of “analytical” labor economics
texts emphasizing the applicability of neoclassical eco
58
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nomic theory and techniques in the analysis of contem
porary labor market issues. Where other authors have
failed, Fearn succeeds in (1) identifying the most press
ing of today’s labor problems and (2) presenting a co
gent review of the most important literature bearing on
the issues. Indeed, it is in the literature review of each
issue that Fearn’s book is generally at its best. Early in
the work, however, it becomes clear that Fearn disre
gards his arsenal of knowledge and technique and be
comes distracted on mundane side issues.
Fearn covers issues ranging from the economics of
women’s liberation to the traditional chapter on the dis
tribution of income. His introduction includes an excel
lent discussion of the changing nature and emphasis of
labor economic study. It is here that the topical ap
proach is explained and justified. A telling omission,
however, is any indication of the theoretical and quanti
tative sophistication assumed of the book’s readers.
This omission returns to haunt the work in many chap
ters, for it becomes apparent that Fearn’s vacillation on
the level of analysis stems from either uncertainty re
garding the nature of his audience or a futile attempt to
serve the purposes of all.
There are several excellent chapters in the book, rep
resenting Fearn’s ability to identify a meaningful prob
lem and synthesize available literature on the subject.
Chapter 8, “The Demand for Human Capital,” is a sub
ject traditionally covered in most labor texts. Fearn’s
contribution to the issue is most enlightening in his pre
sentation of “ . . . practical lessons for career choosers,
guidance counselors, and others.” “The Economics of
Unions” chapter is superb as a review of the recent lit
erature. Unfortunately, the treatment of unionism as a
consumer good, a monopoly influence, and a cheap
screening device, suffers from unnecessary attempts to
blend mathematical rigor into the analysis. The discus
sion of unionism is highlighted, nonetheless, by an em
pirical investigation of the determinants of union
membership and union wage effects. An exceptional
chapter, “Economics of Women’s Liberation,” presents
a lucid explanation of female labor force participation
influences and skillfully separates the economic from
noneconomic forces.
Fearn’s book makes a substantial contribution to the
labor economics literature, particularly in presenting
concepts, theories, and literature reviews in an interest
ing topical framework. This achievement is marred,
however, by extended presentations of mathematical
model specifications. If the author considers such elabo
rations to be necessary, they would more appropriately
be presented as chapter appendices.
As many authors are prone to do, Fearn occasionally
gets carried away with digressions that detract from the
major components of this analysis. Such is the case in
the first chapter, “Labor Markets and Labor Force At-
tachment,” where the discussion of “communards” and
communal living is stretched over 13 pages in the fol
lowing sections: “Indifference Curve Analysis and Com
munal Distribution; A Small Commune, or Tea for
Two; Communes and ‘Copping’ or ‘Opting Out’; and
Communes, Households and Labor Force Attachment.”
A similar redundancy shows up in the presentation of
President Nixon’s Family Assistance Plan (fap ) in the
chapter on “Welfare Programs and Work Incentives.”
While Fearn presents a straightforward treatment of
many of the major issues surrounding income mainte
nance programs, in place of his diversion to mathemati
cal elucidation of the FAP model could have been a
simple algebraic formulation demonstrating that the
principal objectives of U.S. welfare policy are mutually
inconsistent.
Labor Economics: An Emerging Synthesis should be
read by students of labor economics (and teachers) in
terested in an up-to-date analysis of current labor prob
lems. While I argue at some points with Fearn’s
presentation, I find the book generally to be free of ma
jor errors of analysis and interpretation.
— William L. M cK ee
A s sista n t P ro fesso r
In stitu te o f A p p lie d E c o n o m ic s
N o r th T e x a s S ta te U n iv e r sity
Foreign policy: ways and means
Solvency— The Price o f Survival: An Essay on American
Foreign Policy. By James Chace. New York, Ran
dom House, Inc., 1981. 115 pp. $9.95.
In a clear, accessible, even personable style, James
Chace, the managing editor of Foreign Affairs, addresses
the conduct of foreign relations and economic policy
with broad, vigorous strokes. At the same time, he illu
minates the subtle and generally unexamined interstices
between these two fields with a clarity not too short of
brilliance. After reading this book, we can understand
that a $1.5 trillion unfunded liability in the Social Secu
rity system may keep a strategic window of vulnerabili
ty open that much wider or that today’s high rate of
unemployment could mean that a U.S. Army division
will have to go 1 more year without updating its equip
ment, These are some of the hard choices that must be
made when competing commitments meet the reality of
too scarce resources.
Tension between wants and means is the foundation
of Chace’s discussion of foreign policy. His analysis can
be reduced, with admitted oversimplification, to a vari
ety of accounting problems. On the debit side are the
national security commitments, the international politi
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cal debts, the promises made to others in conducting
foreign policy, and the huge domestic commitments
America has made to its own people. On the credit side,
there are the promises and commitments returned to the
United States, the Nation’s standing military power,
and the fecundity of the economy. In such an account
ing framework, Chace quotes Walter Lippmann:
. . . th e level m a y vary at w h ich a so lv e n t b a la n ce is
stru ck . If its ex p en d itu res are sa fely w ith in its assu red
m ea n s, a fa m ily is so lv e n t if it is p o o r, is w e ll-to -d o , or is
rich. T h e sa m e p rin cip le h o ld s tru e o f n a tio n s. T h e sta te s
m an o f a str o n g co u n tr y m a y b a la n ce its c o m m itm e n ts at a
h ig h level or at a lo w . B u t w h eth er h e is c o n d u c tin g th e af
fairs o f G erm a n y , w h ich h a s h ad d y n a m ic a m b itio n s, or th e
affairs o f S w itzerla n d , w h ich seek s to h o ld w h a t it a lread y
h as, or th e U n ite d S ta tes, h e m u st b rin g h is m ea n s an d
en d s in to b alan ce. If h e d o e s n o t, h e w ill fo llo w a co u rse
th a t lea d s to d isaster.
James Chace argues that we are well along such a
course. We have spent too m uch— Chace is especially
mindful of Vietnam— and we are building too little.
The analysis of the economy and why it is not pro
ducing enough is less assured than Chace’s commentary
on foreign affairs. His economics rely heavily on the
oldtime religion that holds its meetings in the middle of
the road that runs past the Wall in lower Manhattan:
The government has spent too much and taxed too lit
tle; the authorities have printed too much money to
make up the difference; and we have all gotten too lazy
and complacent in our labor. The theory is arguable,
but the implications are clear— the United States is no
longer so overwhelmingly dominant an economy that it
can more or less demand, and generally get, its own po
litical and economic terms on all issues. The United
States must now choose between its “vital interests”
and “secondary goals” and, in many ways, must learn
to define these concepts in terms of the limited means
available.
Solvency is a provocative and disturbing book. Words
like “retrenchment” and “withdrawal” and even “isola
tion” can whisper through one’s thoughts. Simple logi
cal extension of Chace’s theme of bringing means and
ends into balance leads to thoughts of digging into a
new, nuclear Fortress America. But I think Chace
would agree that policy can be made to cope with the
solvency crisis without drawing back from our basic
commitment as the principal country among the free
nations of the world. I would like to add that the pa
rameters of that exercise may not ultimately be set in
Washington’s foreign policy councils, but on the boardroom tables and shop floors of America’s production
machine.
— R ichard M. D evens, Jr .
Boston, Mass.
59
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW July 1982 • Book Reviews
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U sin g C a n d id e M o d e l 2.0. O tta w a , O n tario, E c o n o m ic
C o u n c il o f C a n a d a, 1982, 79 p p ., b ib lio g ra p h y . (D is c u s
sio n P aper, 2 1 5 .)
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Q u a rte r ly D a ta on W e e k ly E a rn in g s f r o m th e C u r re n t P o p
u la tio n S u rvey. (P rep ared b y E arl F . M ello r.) W a sh in g
to n , 1982, 13 pp. (B u lletin 2 1 1 3 .) $ 2 .2 5 , S u p erin ten d en t
o f D o c u m e n ts , W a sh in g to n 2 0 4 0 2 .
T rad e U n io n s in 1 9 8 0 ,” E m p lo y m e n t G azette, F eb ru ary
1982, pp. 5 4 -5 6 .
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S u m m a ry ,” E m p lo y m e n t G azette, F eb ru ary 1982, pp. 6 1 63.
H offm an , R o b ert B „ “ C o n fid en tia l E m p loyees: Is th e D ile m
m a R e so lv e d ? ” L a b o r L a w Jou rn al, M arch 1982, pp. 137—
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H o lzer, H arry J., “ U n io n s an d th e L ab or M ark et S tatu s o f
W h ite a n d M in o rity Y o u th ,” I n d u s tr ia l a n d L a b o r R e la
tion s R eview , A p ril 1982, pp. 3 9 1 —4-05.
Economic growth and development
Irvin g, Joh n S„ Jr., “ C lo sin g an d S ales o f B u sin esses: A S et
tled A rea?” L a b o r L a w Jou rn a l, A p ril 1982, pp. 2 1 8 -2 9 .
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g a n iz a tio n s, T h e N a tio n a l E co n o m y, 1981: B a c k g ro u n d
a n d P o lic y R e c o m m e n d a tio n s f o r 1982. W a sh in g to n , 1982,
31 pp. (R e p r in ted from th e N a tio n a l E c o n o m y se c tio n of
th e R e p o r t o f th e E x e cu tiv e C o u n cil o f th e AFL-CIO to th e
1 4th C on ven tio n , N e w Y o rk , N o v e m b e r 1981.)
Japan In stitu te o f L ab ou r, A g e n d a f o r I n d u s tr ia l R e la tio n s in
A sian D evelo p m en t: P roceedin gs o f th e 1981 A sian R e g io n
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A R esea rch A n n u a l. G reen w ich , C o n n ., j a i P ress, In c.,
1981, 4 6 9 pp. $ 4 7 .5 0 .
L aw ler, Joh n J., “ C o llec tiv e B argain in g a n d M ark et U n c e r
ta in ty ,” I n d u s tr ia l R e la tio n s, W in ter 1982, pp. 3 3 -5 2 .
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W a sh in g to n , 1982, 151 pp. (B u lletin 2 1 2 1 .) S to ck N o .
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Industrial relations
A b o w d , Jo h n M . a n d H en ry S. F arb er, “Jo b Q u eu es a n d the
U n io n S ta tu s o f W o r k e rs,” I n d u s tr ia l a n d L a b o r R e la tio n s
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n al, A p ril 1982, pp. 1 9 5 -2 0 1 .
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torate: E x p erien ce w ith R eferen d a on P u b lic E m p lo y e e
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1 982, pp. 3 3 0 —42.
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W a g e s in th e 1970s: U n io n ism N o w P a y s,” I n d u s tr ia l
a n d L a b o r R e la tio n s R eview , A p ril 1982, pp. 3 6 8 -7 6 .
B o ld t, M ich a el H ., “ D e sig n an d M a n u fa ctu rin g C o rp oration :
T h e M u ltip la n t E m p lo y e r a n d S y m p a th y S trik es,” L a b o r
L a w J o u rn a l, M a rch 1982, pp. 1 4 6 -5 3 .
C o rd o v a , E ., “ W o rk ers’ P a rticip a tio n in D e c is io n s W ith in E n
terp rises: R e ce n t T ren d s an d P r o b le m s,” I n te rn a tio n a l
L a b o u r R eview , M a r c h -A p r il 1982, pp. 125—40.
C o rp o ra te D a ta E x ch a n g e, In c., c d e H a n d b o o k : L a b o r R e la
tio n s— A C o m p a n y -U n io n G u ide. N e w Y o rk , 1982, 64 pp.
$ 10.
D o n o v a n , R a y m o n d J., “ E ffective A d m in istra tio n o f ERISA,”
L a b o r L a w J o u rn a l, M arch 1982, pp. 1 3 1 -3 6 .
F io r ito , Jack a n d C h a rles R . G reer, “ D e ter m in a n ts o f U .S .
U n io n ism : P a st R esea rch an d F u tu re N e e d s, “ I n d u s tr ia l
R e la tio n s, W in ter 1982, pp. 1 -3 2 .
G rea t B ritain , D e p a r tm en t o f E m p lo y m e n t, “ M em b ersh ip of
60FRASER
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L ester, R ich ard A ., “ A ffirm ative A c tio n : T h e N u m erica lG o a ls Issu e an d C o n str u c tiv e R e fo r m ,” N e w Jersey B e ll
Jou rn a l, Sp rin g 1982, pp . 1 9 -2 7 .
L evin e, M arvin J. an d K a th erin e G . L ew is, “T h e S tatu s o f
C o lle c tiv e B argain in g in P u b lic E d u cation : A n O ver
v ie w ,” L a b o r L a w Jou rn a l, M arch 1982, pp. 1 7 7 -8 6 .
M iller, R o n a ld L ., “ W ork er P rivacy an d C o lle c tiv e B ar
g a in in g ,” L a b o r L a w J o u rn al, M arch 1982, pp. 154—68.
M o rriso n , M a lc o lm H ., “ a d e a a n d th e F u tu re o f R etire
m e n t,” A g in g a n d W ork, F a ll 1981, pp. 2 5 3 -5 7 .
R e isc h l, D e n n is K ., “ A rb itral D ilem m a : T h e R e so lu tio n o f
F ed eral S ector A s b e s to s D ifferen tial D is p u te s ,” L a b o r
L a w J o u rn al, M arch 1982, pp. 1 6 9 -7 6 .
S ch u ster, M ich a el H . an d C h risto p h er S. M iller, “ E v a lu a tin g
th e O ld er W orker: U s e o f E m p lo y e r A p p ra isa l S y stem s in
A g e D isc r im in a tio n L itig a tio n ,” A g in g a n d W ork, F all
1981, pp . 2 2 9 —43.
S ch u tt, R u sse ll K „ “ M o d e ls o f M ilitan cy: S u p p ort for Strikes
a n d W ork A c tio n s A m o n g P u b lic E m p lo y e e s ,” I n d u s tr ia l
a n d L a b o r R e la tio n s R eview , A p ril 1982, pp. 4 0 6 - 2 2 .
Sethi, A m a r jit S in gh a n d Stu art J. D im m o c k , e d s., I n d u s tr ia l
R e la tio n s a n d H e a lth Services. N e w Y o rk , St. M a rtin ’s
P ress, 1982, 3 7 0 pp. $35.
S ilb ergeld , A rth u r F ., “ N e w A ffirm ative A c tio n R e g u la tio n s
for G o v er n m e n t C o n tr a c to r s ,” L a b o r L a w Jou rn a l, A p ril
1982, pp. 2 3 0 -3 7 .
S m ith , J. M artin , “ A r b itr a tin g S afety G rievan ces: C o n tra ct or
C o n g ress? ” L a b o r L a w J o u rn a l, A p ril 1982, pp. 2 3 8 -4 6 .
S w id in sk y , R o b er t, “ B a rgain in g P o w er U n d e r C o m p u lso r y
U n io n is m ,” I n d u s tr ia l R e la tio n s, W in ter 1982, pp. 6 2 -7 2 .
T h o r n to n , R o b er t J., “T each er U n io n ism an d C o llec tiv e
B a rgain in g in E n g la n d a n d W a le s ,” I n d u s tr ia l a n d L a b o r
R e la tio n s R eview , A p ril 1982, pp. 3 7 7 -9 1 .
U .S . B ureau o f L ab or S ta tistic s, B a rg a in in g C a le n d a r 1982.
(P rep ared b y M ary A n n A n d r ew s, D o u g la s L e R o y , an d
D a v id S ch lein , a ssisted b y Jane G reen e.) W a sh in g to n ,
1982, 63 pp. (B u lletin 2 1 2 7 .) S to ck N o . 0 2 9 - 0 0 1 - 0 2 6 9 8 6. $ 4 .5 0 , S u p erin ten d en t o f D o c u m e n ts , W a sh in g to n ,
20402.
----------- M a jo r C o llective B a rg a in in g A g re e m e n ts: P la n t M o v e
m en t, I n te r p la n t T ransfer, a n d R e lo c a tio n A llow an ces.
(P rep ared b y M ary A n n A n d r ew s, H o m er R . K em p , Jr.,
D a v id S ch lein , a n d W in sto n L. T ille ry .) W a sh in g to n ,
1981, 110 pp. (B u lletin 1 4 2 5 -2 0 .) S to ck N o . 0 2 9 - 0 0 1 0 2 6 0 2 - 1 . $ 4 .7 5 , S u p erin ten d en t o f D o c u m e n ts , W a sh in g
to n 2 0 4 0 2 .
Z ip p , G le n n A ., “ R ig h ts a n d R e sp o n sib ilitie s o f P arties to a
U n io n -S e c u r ity A g r e e m e n t,” L a b o r L a w J o u rn al, A p ril
1982, pp. 2 0 2 -1 7 .
International economics
R ic ca , Serg io , “ P riv ate T em p o ra ry W ork O rg a n iza tio n s an d
P u b lic E m p lo y m e n t Services: E ffects a n d P ro b lem s o f C o
e x is te n c e ,” I n te rn a tio n a l L a b o u r R eview , M a rch -A p ril
1982, pp . 1 4 1 -5 3 .
“T h e L ev era g e o f L o w er O il P r ic e s— S p ecial R e p o r t,” B u si
n ess W eek, M ar. 22, 1982, pp. 6 6 - 7 3 .
Labor and economic history
G o ld in , C la u d ia , “ A n E c o n o m ic H isto ry o f W o m e n ,” NBER
R e p o rter, W in ter 1 9 8 1 /2 , pp. 9 -1 2 .
0 2 6 9 3 - 5 . $ 4 .5 0 , S u p erin ten d en t o f D o c u m e n ts , W a sh in g
to n 2 0 4 0 2 .
Management and organization theory
A s h , R o n a ld A ., “ Job E lem e n ts for T a sk C lu sters: A r g u m e n ts
for U s in g M u lti-M e th o d o lo g ic a l A p p r o a ch es to Jo b
A n a ly s is a n d a D e m o n s tr a tio n o f T h eir U tilit y ,” P u b lic
P erso n n el M a n a g e m e n t Jou rn a l, Sp rin g 1982, pp. 8 0 -9 0 .
A s p lu n d , G isele a n d G o ra n A s p lu n d , A n In te g r a te d D evelo p
m e n t S tra te g y. N e w Y o rk , Joh n W iley & S o n s L td ., 1982,
131 pp. $ 2 6 .9 5 .
C au b ler, G eo r g e H ., Jr., “ A lte rn a tiv e to a R e d u ctio n in
F o rce, P u b lic P erso n n el M a n a g e m e n t Jou rn a l, Sp rin g
1982, pp. 6 8 - 7 1 .
C rane, D o n a ld P. an d W illia m A . Jon es, Jr., T he P u b lic M a n
a ger's G u ide. W a sh in g to n , T h e B ureau o f N a tio n a l A f
fairs, In c., 1982, 2 8 7 pp. $ 1 7 .5 0 , clo th ; $ 1 2 .5 0 , paper.
D ic k e n s, F lo y d , Jr. an d J a cq u elin e B. D ic k e n s, T he B la c k
M a n a g er: M a k in g I t In th e C orp o ra te W orld. N e w Y o rk ,
A M A C O M , A d iv isio n o f A m erica n M a n a g e m en t A s s o c ia
tio n s, 1982, 333 pp. $ 1 7 .9 5 .
G reen e, L a w ren ce D „ “ F ed eral M erit R eq u irem en ts: A R e tro
sp ec tiv e L o o k ,” P u b lic P erso n n el M a n a g e m e n t Jou rn a l,
Sp rin g 1982, pp. 3 9 -5 4 .
“ P a p ers P resen ted a t th e F o r ty -F ir st A n n u a l M ee tin g o f th e
E c o n o m ic H is to r y A s s o c ia tio n ,” T he J o u r n a l o f E c o n o m ic
H isto ry, M a rch 1982, pp. 1 -2 1 7 .
M o eller, B en to n G ., “ W h a t E ver H a p p en ed to th e F ed eral
P erso n n el S y stem ? ” P u b lic P erso n n el M a n a g e m e n t J o u r
“T h e N a tio n s o f th e P acific,” C u rre n t H isto ry, A p ril 1982, pp.
P a tto n , Joh n A ., P a tto n 's C o m p le te G u id e to P ro d u c tiv ity I m
p ro v e m e n t. N e w Y o r k , A M A C O M , A d iv isio n o f A m erica n
M a n a g em en t A s so c ia tio n s , 1982, 213 pp. $ 1 5 .9 5 .
1 4 5 -7 5 .
Labor force
B o u let, J a c -A n d ré a n d L aval L a vallée, W om en a n d th e L a
b o u r M a r k e t: A n A n a ly tic a l F ra m ew o rk . O tta w a , O n tario,
E c o n o m ic C o u n c il o f C a n ad a, 1981, 2 0 4 pp. (D isc u s sio n
P aper, 2 0 7 .)
G u stm a n , A la n L. a n d T h o m a s L. S tein m eier, T he I m p a c t o f
W ages a n d U n e m p lo y m e n t on Y ou th E n r o llm e n t a n d L a
b o r S u p p ly. R ep rin ted from The R e v ie w o f E c o n o m ic s a n d
S ta tistic s, N o v e m b e r 1981, pp. 5 5 3 -6 0 . C am b rid ge,
M a ss., N a tio n a l B ureau o f E c o n o m ic R esea rch , In c.,
( n b e r R ep rin t, 2 4 1 .) $1.5 0 .
H a ll, R o b er t E. a n d E d w a rd P. L azear, T he E x c ess S e n sitiv ity
o f L a y o ffs a n d Q u its to D e m a n d . C a m b rid ge, M a ss., N a
tio n a l B ureau o f E c o n o m ic R esea rch , In c., 1982, 4 8 pp.
(NBER W o rk in g P aper Series, 8 6 4 .) $1.50.
H a u sm a n , Jerry A ., L a b o r S u p p ly. R ep rin ted from th e
B r o o k in g s In stitu tio n ’s H o w T a x es A ffe c t E c o n o m ic B e
havior, pp. 2 7 - 7 2 . C a m b rid ge, M a ss., N a tio n a l B ureau o f
E c o n o m ic R esea rch , In c., 1982.
K a h n , L a w ren ce M . a n d S tu art A . L o w , “T h e W a g e Im p a ct
o f J o b S ea rch ,” I n d u s tr ia l R e la tio n s, W in ter 1982, pp. 5 3 61.
S h ep p a rd ,
H a ro ld
L .,
“ncoa
A g in g
Su rvey
Show s
P ro u n o u n ce d P referen ce for P art-tim e W ork: a d e a
A w a re n e ss V a ries A m o n g R e s p o n d e n ts ,” A g in g a n d
W ork, F a ll 1981, p p . 2 2 1 -2 5 .
U .S . B ureau o f L a b or S ta tistic s, L in k in g E m p lo y m e n t P ro b
le m s to E c o n o m ic S ta tu s. (P rep ared b y F ra n cis W .
H o rv a th , N a n c y F . R y tin a , a n d S y lv ia R . T erry.) W a sh
in g to n , 1982, 58 pp. (B u lletin 2 1 2 3 .) S to c k N o . 0 2 9 - 0 0 1 -
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nal, Sp rin g 1982, pp. 1 -1 8 .
P erh am , Joh n , “ W h a t’s W ro n g w ith M a n a g e m e n t,” D u n 's
B u sin ess M o n th , A p ril 1982, pp. 4 8 - 5 2 .
S teele, Jam es W ., P a y in g f o r P erfo rm a n c e a n d P osition: D ile m
m a s in S a la r y C om pression a n d M e r it P ay. N e w Y o rk ,
A m erica n M a n a g em en t A s so c ia tio n s , a m a M em b ersh ip
P u b lica tio n s D iv isio n , 1982, 50 pp. $10, a m a m em b ers;
$ 1 3 .5 0 , n o n m em b ers.
W h ea t, R ich a rd A ., “T h e F ed eral F le x itim e S ystem : C o m p a ri
so n a n d Im p le m e n ta tio n ,” P u b lic P erso n n el M a n a g e m e n t
Jou rn a l, Sp rin g 1982, pp. 2 2 -3 0 .
W rich , Jam es T ., G u id elin es f o r D evelo p in g an E m p lo y e e A ssist
a n ce P ro g ra m . N e w Y o r k , A m erica n M a n a g e m en t A s s o
c ia tio n s, 1982, 82 p p . $ 7 .5 0 , a m a m em b ers, $ 10,
n on m em b ers.
Monetary and fiscal policy
F ried m a n , B en jam in M „ “ F in a n cia l M ark ets an d M o n eta ry
E c o n o m ic s ,” NBER R ep o rter, W in ter 1 9 8 1 /2 , pp. 1 -6 .
P ech m a n , Josep h A ., ed ., S e ttin g N a tio n a l P riorities: T he 19 8 3
B u d g et. W a sh in g to n , T h e B r o o k in g s In stitu tio n , 1982,
2 6 8 pp. $ 2 2 .9 5 , clo th ; $ 8 .9 5 , paper.
Prices and living conditions
B o sw o rth , B arry P. a n d R o b ert Z. L aw ren ce, C o m m o d ity
P rices a n d th e N e w In fla tio n . W a sh in g to n , T h e B r o o k in g s
In stitu tio n , 1982, 215 pp. $ 2 4 .9 5 , cloth ; $ 9 .9 5 , paper.
G reat B ritain, D e p a r tm en t o f E m p lo y m e n t, “ P attern o f
H o u se h o ld S p en d in g in 1 9 8 0 ,” E m p lo y m e n t G azette, F e b
ruary 1982, pp. 5 0 -5 3 .
61
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW July 1982 • Book Reviews
Z erw itz, D o n n a , ed ., C on feren ces on In fla tio n : n ber S u m m a r y
R e p o rt. C a m b rid g e, M a ss., N a tio n a l B ureau o f E c o n o m ic
R esea rch , In c., 1982, 36 pp.
Productivity and technological change
G rilic h e s, Z v i a n d F ran k L ich ten b erg , R & D a n d P ro d u c tiv ity
a t th e I n d u s tr y L ev el: I s T h ere S t i ll a R e la tio n s h ip ? C a m
b rid ge, M a ss., N a tio n a l B ureau o f E c o n o m ic R esea rch ,
In c., 1982, 4 9 pp. ( n b e r W o rk in g P ap er Series, 8 5 0 .)
$ 1 .5 0 .
Ish ii, T a k e m o c h i, “T e c h n o lo g ic a l R e v o lu tio n in J a p a n ,” L o o k
J a p a n , A p r. 10, 1982, pp . 1 -3 .
L a u d an , R a c h e l, “ C o n feren ce R ep ort: M o d e ls o f S cien tific an d
T e c h n o lo g ic a l C h a n g e — C en ter for P h ilo s o p h y o f S ci
en ce, U n iv e r sity o f P ittsb u r g h , A p r. 9 - 1 2 , 1 9 8 1 ,” T ech
n o lo g y a n d C u ltu re, Jan u ary 1982, pp. 7 8 -8 0 .
M a ca ro v , D a v id , W o rk er P ro d u c tiv ity : M y th s a n d R e a lity .
B ev erly H ills, C a lif., S age P u b lica tio n s, In c., 1982, 223
pp . (S a g e L ib rary o f S o cial R esea rch , V o l. 137.)
S u lliv a n , D e n n is J., Jr., “ E lec tro n ic H o m e In fo rm a tio n Ser
vices: W ill T h e y D e liv e r T h eir F u ll P rom ise?” N e w J ersey
B e ll J o u r n a l, Spring 1982, pp. 1 0 -1 8 .
Social institutions and social change
C o m m u n ity C o u n c il o f G reater N e w Y o r k , H u m a n S ervices
P ro g ra m s— E m p lo y e r a n d
U nion S p o n sored: C u rre n t
T ren d s in N e w Y o rk C ity. P rep ared b y N a n c y S in kin
K o lb e n . N e w Y o r k , C o m m u n ity C o u n c il o f G reater N e w
Y o r k , 1982, 3 4 pp.
F o ste r, J. F a g g , “ T h e P ap ers o f J. F a g g F o s te r ,” J o u r n a l o f
E c o n o m ic Issu es, D e ce m b e r 1981, pp. 8 5 3 -1 0 1 2 . $5, A s
so c ia tio n for E v o lu tio n a r y E c o n o m ic s , U n iv e r sity o f N e
b rask a, L in c o ln , N eb r.
Wages and compensation
A p p le g a th , J o h n , W o rk in g F ree: P ra c tic a l A lte rn a tiv e s to th e 9
to 5 Job. N e w Y o rk , a m a c o m , A d iv isio n o f A m erica n
M a n a g e m en t A s so c ia tio n s , 1982, 2 0 7 pp . $ 1 3 .9 5 .
B o rja s, G eo r g e J., “T h e E a rn in g s o f M a le H isp a n ic Im m i
g ra n ts in th e U n ite d S ta te s,” I n d u s tr ia l a n d L a b o r R e la
tio n s R e view , A p ril 1982, pp. 3 4 3 -5 3 .
B o sc h e n , J o h n F. a n d H ersch el I. G ro ssm a n , T h e F e d e r a l
M in im u m W age, E m p lo y m e n t, a n d In fla tio n . R ep rin ted
from th e R e p o r t o f th e M in im u m W age S tu d y C o m m is
sion, J u n e 1981, pp . 1 9 -4 3 . C a m b rid g e, M a ss., N a tio n a l
B u reau o f E c o n o m ic R esea rch , In c., 1981. ( n b e r R ep rin t,
2 4 2 .) $ 1 .5 0 .
M ic h ., T h e W .E . U p jo h n In stitu te for E m p lo y m e n t R e
search , 1982, 117 p p . $ 5 .7 5 , paper.
M eyer, R o b er t H . a n d D a v id A . W ise, T he E ffe cts o f th e M in i
m u m W age on th e E m p lo y m e n t a n d E a rn in g s o f Y outh.
C am b rid g e, M a ss., N a tio n a l B ureau o f E c o n o m ic R e
search , In c., 1982, 64 p p . ( n b e r W ork in g P aper Series,
8 4 9 .) $1.5 0 .
O rg a n iza tio n for E c o n o m ic C o -O p era tio n a n d D e v elo p m en t,
L a b o u r S u p p ly, G row th C o n stra in ts a n d W o rk S h arin g.
P aris, O rg a n iza tio n for E c o n o m ic C o -O p era tio n an d D e
v e lo p m en t, 1982, 67 pp. $ 6 .5 0 , OECD P u b lica tio n s a n d In
fo rm a tio n C en ter, W a sh in g to n .
S eld en , C ath erin e a n d o th ers, E q u a l P a y f o r W o rk o f
C o m p a ra b le W orth : A n A n n o ta te d B ib lio g ra p h y. C h ica g o ,
111., A m erica n L ib rary A s s o c ia tio n , 1982, 31 pp. $4, pre
paid.
U .S . B ureau o f L ab or S ta tistics, A re a W age S u rveys: J a c k so n
ville, F lorida, M e tro p o lita n A rea, D e c e m b e r 198 1 (B u lletin
3 0 1 0 - 6 3 , 28 p p ., S to c k N o . 0 2 9 - 0 0 1 - 9 0 1 1 0 - 1 , $ 2 .50);
D a y to n , Ohio, M e tro p o lita n A rea, D e c e m b e r 198 1 (B u lletin
3 0 1 0 - 6 5 , 35 p p ., S to ck N o . 0 2 9 - 0 0 1 - 9 0 1 1 2 - 7 , $ 2 .7 5 ).
A v a ila b le from th e S u p erin ten d en t o f D o c u m e n ts , W a sh
in g to n 2 0 4 0 2 , GPO b o o k sto r es, or b l s reg ion al offices.
----------- I n d u s tr y W age S u rvey: L ife In su ran ce, F e b ru a ry 1980.
(P rep ared b y J o se p h C. B u sh .) W a sh in g to n , 1981, 4 6 pp.
(B u lletin 2 1 1 9 .) S to ck N o . 0 2 9 - 0 0 1 - 0 2 6 4 8 - 0 . $ 3 .2 5 , Su
p erin ten d en t o f D o c u m e n ts , W a sh in g to n , 2 0 4 0 2 .
Welfare programs and social insurance
Jen k in s, M ich a el, “ S o cial S ecu rity T ren d s in th e E n g lish S p eak in g C a rib b ea n ,” In te rn a tio n a l L a b o u r R eview , Septe m b e r -O c to b e r 1981, pp. 6 3 1 -4 3 .
L azear, E d w a rd P ., S everen ce P ay, P en sion s a n d E ffic ie n t M o
bility. C a m b rid g e, M a ss., N a tio n a l B u reau o f E c o n o m ic
R esea rch , In c., 1982, 36 pp. ( n b e r W o rk in g P ap er Series,
8 5 4 .) $1 .5 0 .
----------- W h y I s T h ere M a n d a to r y R e tir e m e n t? R ep rin ted from
th e J o u r n a l o f P o litic a l E co n o m y, D e ce m b e r 1979, pp.
1 2 6 1 -8 4 . C a m b rid ge, M a ss., N a tio n a l B ureau o f E c o
n o m ic R esea rch , In c., 1982. ( n b e r R ep rin t, 160.) $1 .5 0 .
R o o t, L aw ren ce S., F rin ge B en efits: S o c ia l In su ra n c e in th e
S te e l In d u s tr y . B ev erly H ills, C a lif., S age P u b lica tio n s,
In c., 1982, 2 5 6 pp. $ 2 0 , clo th ; $ 9 .9 5 , paper.
Worker training and development
C o n lo n , T h o m a s R . & A s so c ia te s, T o ta l E x e c u tiv e C o m p en sa
tion S tu d y , M a r c h 1982. D e a r P ark, L .I., N .Y ., T h o m a s
R . C o n lo n & A s so c ia te s, 1982, 61 pp. $ 1 0 0 , p lu s p o sta g e.
M iren goff, W illia m an d oth ers, CETA: A cco m p lish m en ts, P ro b
lem s, S olu tion s. K a la m a z o o , M ic h ., T h e W .E . U p jo h n In
stitu te for E m p lo y m e n t R esea rch , 1982, 321 pp. $ 1 0 .9 5 ,
clo th ; $ 7 .9 5 , paper.
C o r so n , W a lter a n d W a lter N ic h o ls o n , T h e F e d e r a l S u p p le
m e n ta l B e n e fits P ro g ra m : A n A p p ra isa l o f E m e r g e n c y E x
te n d e d U n e m p lo y m e n t In su ra n c e B en efits. K a la m a z o o ,
V erh o ev en , C .J., T ech n iqu es in C o rp o ra te M a n p o w e r P lan n in g :
M e th o d s a n d A p p lica tio n s. H in g h a m , M a ss., K lu w e r B o s
to n , In c., M a rtin u s N ijhofF P u b lish in g C o ., 1982, 186 pp.
62FRASER
Digitized for
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Labor Statistics
Notes on Current Labor Statistics ................................................................................................
64
Schedule of release dates for major BLS statistical series .......................................................
64
Employment data from household survey. Definitions and notes
65
65
66
67
68
69
69
69
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
.............................................................
Employment status of noninstitutional population, selected years, 1950-81 ..................................................................
Employment status by sex, age, and race, seasonally adjusted ........................................................................................
Selected employment indicators, seasonally adjusted ..........................................................................................................
Selected unemployment indicators, seasonally adjusted .....................................................................................................
Unemployment rates, by sex and age, seasonally adjusted ................................................................................................
Unemployed persons, by reason for unemployment, seasonally adjusted ........................................................................
Duration of unemployment, seasonally adjusted ..................................................................................................................
Employment, hours, and earnings data from establishment surveys. Definitions and notes
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
Employment by industry, selected years, 1950-81 ................................................................................................................
Employment by State ..................................................................................................................................................................
Employment by industry division and major manufacturing group ................................................................................
Employment by industry division and major manufacturing group, seasonally adjusted ...........................................
Hours and earnings, by industry division, selected years, 1950-81 ..................................................................
Weekly hours, by industry division and major manufacturing group .............................................................................
Weekly hours, by industry division and major manufacturing group, seasonally adjusted ........................................
Hourly earnings, by industry division and major manufacturing group ........................................................................
Hourly Earnings Index, by industry division, seasonally adjusted ..................................................................................
Weekly earnings, by industry division and major manufacturing group ........................................................................
70
71
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
77
78
Unemployment insurance data. Definitions
79
79
Price data. Definitions and notes
..................................................................................................
80
Consumer Price Index, 1967-81
Consumer Price Index, U.S. city average, general summary and selecteditems ............................................................
Consumer Price Index, cross-classification of region and population size class ..............................................................
Consumer Price Index, selected areas .....................................................................................................................................
Producer Price Indexes, by stage of processing .....................................................................................................................
Producer Price Indexes, by commodity groupings ................................................................................................................
Producer Price Indexes, for special commodity groupings ................................................................................................
Producer Price Indexes, by durability of product ................................................................................................................
Producer Price Indexes for the output of selected SIC industries .....................................................................................
81
81
87
88
89
90
92
92
92
..................................................................................................................
18. Unemployment insurance and employment service operations ..........................................................................................
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
Productivity data. Definitions and notes
28.
29.
30.
31.
..........................................................................................................................
Annual indexes of productivity, hourly compensation, unit costs, and prices, selected years, 1950-81
Annual changes in productivity, hourly compensation, unit costs, and prices, 1971-81 .............................................
Quarterly indexes of productivity, hourly compensation, unit costs, and prices,seasonally adjusted .......................
Percent change from preceding quarter and year in productivity, hourly compensation, unit costs, and prices . .
Wage and compensation Data. Definitions
32.
33.
34.
35.
36.
.....................................................................................................................
Employment Cost Index, total compensation .......................................................................................................................
Employment Cost Index, wages and salaries, bargaining status, by region, and area s i z e ...........................................
Employment Cost Index, wages and salaries, by occupation and industry grou p ..........................................................
Wage and compensation change, major collective bargaining settlements, 1977 to date ...............................................
Effective wage adjustments in collective bargaining units covering 1,000 workers or more, 1977 to d a te ................
W ork stoppage data. Definition ..........................................
37.
Work stoppages involving 1,000 workers or more, 1947 to date
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95
95
96
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
102
103
103
NOTES ON CURRENT LABOR STATISTICS
T h is se c tio n o f th e R e v ie w p resen ts th e p rin cip al sta tistic a l se
ries c o lle c te d a n d c a lc u la ted b y th e B ureau o f L ab or S ta tistics.
A brief in tr o d u c tio n to each g r o u p o f ta b les p ro v id es defi
n itio n s, n o te s o n th e d ata, sou rces, a n d o th er m aterial u su a lly
published for numerous Consumer and Producer Price Index series.
However, seasonally adjusted indexes are not published for the U.S.
average All Items CPI. Only seasonally adjusted percent changes are
available for this series.
fo u n d in fo o tn o te s.
R ea d ers w h o n eed a d d itio n a l in fo rm a tio n are in v ited to
c o n su lt th e B L S reg io n al offices listed on th e in sid e fron t c o v
er o f th is issu e o f th e R eview . S o m e gen eral n o te s a p p lica b le to
several series are g iv en b elo w .
Seasonal adjustment. Certain monthly and quarterly data are adjusted
to eliminate the effect of such factors as climatic conditions, industry
production schedules, opening and closing of schools, holiday buying
periods, and vacation practices, which might otherwise mask short
term movements of the statistical series. Tables containing these data
are identified as “seasonally adjusted.” Seasonal effects are estimated
on the basis of past experience. When new seasonal factors are com
puted each year, revisions may affect seasonally adjusted data for sev
eral preceding years.
Seasonally adjusted labor force data in tables 2-7 were revised in
the March 1982 issue of the R eview to reflect experience through 1981.
The original estimates also were revised to 1970 to reflect 1980 census
population controls.
Beginning in January 1980, the BLS introduced two major modifi
cations in the seasonal adjustment methodology for labor force data.
First, the data are being seasonally adjusted with a new procedure
called X -ll/A R IM A , which was developed at Statistics Canada as an
extension of the standard X -ll method. A detailed description of the
procedure appears in The X - l l A R 1M A S eason al A d ju stm e n t M e th o d
by Estela Bee Dagum (Statistics Canada Catalogue No. 12-564E, Feb
ruary 1980). The second change is that seasonal factors are now being
calculated for use during the first 6 months of the year, rather than for
the entire year, and then are calculated at mid-year for the July-December period. Revisions of historical data continue to be made only
at the end of each calendar year.
Annual revision of the seasonally adjusted payroll data in tables
11, 14, and 16 begins with the August 1980 issue using the X -ll
ARIM A seasonal adjustment methodology. New seasonal factors for
productivity data in tables 30 and 31 are usually introduced
in the September issue. Seasonally adjusted indexes and percent
changes from month to month and from quarter to quarter are
Adjustments for price changes. Some data are adjusted to eliminate
the effect of changes in price. These adjustments are made by dividing
current dollar values by the Consumer Price Index or the appropriate
component of the index, then multiplying by 100. For example, given
a current hourly wage rate of $3 and a current price index number of
150, where 1967 = 100, the hourly rate expressed in 1967 dollars is
$2 ($3/150 X 100 = $2). The resulting values are described as
“real,” “constant,” or “ 1967” dollars.
A vailability of information. Data that supplement the tables in this
section are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in a variety of
sources. Press releases provide the latest statistical information
published by the Bureau; the major recurring releases are published
according to the schedule given below. The B L S H a n dbook o f L ab o r
Statistics, Bulletin 2070, provides more detailed data and greater his
torical coverage for most of the statistical series presented in the
M o n th ly L a b o r Review. More information from the household and es
tablishment surveys is provided in E m p lo y m e n t a n d Earnings, a
monthly publication of the Bureau. Historically, comparable informa
tion from the establishment survey is published in two comprehensive
data books — E m p lo ym en t a n d Earnings, U n ited S tates and E m p lo y
m en t a n d Earnings, S ta tes a n d Areas, and their annual supplements.
More detailed information on wages and other aspects of collective
bargaining appears in the monthly periodical, C urrent W age D evelop
m e n ts More detailed price information is published each month in the
periodicals, the C P I D eta iled R e port and P rodu cer Prices a n d Price In
dexes.
Symbols
p = preliminary. To improve the timeliness of some series,
preliminary figures are issued based on representative
but incomplete returns.
r = revised. Generally, this revision reflects the availability
of later data but may also reflect other adjustments,
n.e.c. = not elsewhere classified.
Schedule of release dates for major BLS statistical series
Series
Employment situation............................................................
Producer Price index ..........................................
Consumer Price Index ..................................................
Real earnings ..........................................
Productivity and costs:
Nonfarm business and manufacturing ......................................
Nonfinancial corporations ....................................................
Employment Cost Index ..........................................
64
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Release
date
Period
covered
Release
date
Period
covered
MLR table
number
July 2
July 16
July 23
July 23
June
June
June
June
August 6
August 13
August 24
August 24
July
July
July
July
1-11
23-27
19-22
12-17
July 29
2nd quarter
August 26
August 19
2nd quarter
2nd quarter
28-31
28-31
32-34
EMPLOYMENT DATA FROM THE HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
E m ploym ent
data
in th is se c tio n
are o b ta in e d from
th e
those not classified as employed or unemployed; this group includes
persons retired, those engaged in their own housework, those not
working while attending school, those unable to work because of
long-term illness, those discouraged from seeking work because of
personal or job market factors, and those who are voluntarily idle.
The noninstitutional population comprises all persons 16 years of age
and older who are not inmates of penal or mental institutions,
sanitariums, or homes for the aged, infirm, or needy.
C u rren t P o p u la tio n S u rvey, a p rogram o f p erson al in terview s
c o n d u c te d m o n th ly b y th e B ureau o f th e C en su s for th e B ureau
of
L abor
S ta tistics.
The
sa m p le c o n sists
of about
6 0 ,0 0 0
h o u se h o ld s se lec ted to rep resen t th e U .S . p o p u la tio n 16 years
o f a g e a n d old er. H o u se h o ld s are in terv iew ed on a ro ta tin g
b a sis, so th a t th ree-fo u rth s o f th e sa m p le is th e sa m e for an y 2
c o n se c u tiv e m o n th s.
Full-tim e workers are those employed at least 35 hours a week;
part-time workers are those who work fewer hours. Workers on part-
Definitions
Employed persons are (1) those who worked for pay any time
during the week which includes the 12th day of the month or who
worked unpaid for 15 hours or more in a family-operated enterprise
and (2) those who were temporarily absent from their regular jobs
because of illness, vacation, industrial dispute, or similar reasons. A
person working at more than one job is counted only in the job at
which he or she worked the greatest number of hours.
Unemployed persons are those who did not work during the survey
week, but were available for work except for temporary illness and
had looked for jobs within the preceding 4 weeks. Persons who did
not look for work because they were on layoff or waiting to start new
jobs within the next 30 days are also counted among the unemployed.
The unemployment rate represents the number unemployed as a
percent of the civilian labor force.
The civilian labor force consists of all employed or unemployed
persons in the civilian noninstitutional population; the total labor
force includes military personnel. Persons not in the labor force are
1.
time schedules for economic reasons (such as slack work, terminating
or starting a job during the week, material shortages, or inability to
find full-time work) are among those counted as being on full-time
status, under the assumption that they would be working full time if
conditions permitted. The survey classifies unemployed persons in
full-time or part-time status by their reported preferences for full-time
or part-time work.
Notes on the data
From time to time, and especially after a decennial census,
adjustments are made in the Current Population Survey figures to
correct for estimating errors during the preceding years. These
adjustments affect the comparability of historical data presented in
table 1. A description of these adjustments and their effect on the
various data series appear in the Explanatory Notes of E m p lo ym en t
a n d Earnings.
Data in tables 2-7 are seasonally adjusted, based on the seasonal
experience through December 1981.
Employment status of the noninstitutional population, 16 years and over, selected years, 1950-61
[Numbers in thousands]
Total labor force
Year
Total non
institutional
population
Civilian labor force
Employed
Number
Percent of
population
Total
Unemployed
Total
Agriculture
Nonagricultural
industries
Number
Percent of
labor
force
Not in
labor force
1950
1955
1960
1964
1965
............................................................
............................................................
............................................................
....................................................
............................................................
106,645
112,732
119,759
127,224
129,236
63,858
68,072
72,142
75,830
77,178
59.9
60.4
60.2
59.6
59.7
62,208
65,023
69,628
73,091
74,455
58,918
62,170
65,778
69,305
71,088
7,160
6,450
5,458
4,523
4,361
51,758
55,722
60,318
64,782
66,726
3,288
2,852
3,852
3,786
3,366
5.3
4.4
5.5
5.2
4.5
42,787
44,660
47,617
51,394
52,058
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
............................................................
............................................................
............................................................
............................................................
............................................................
131,180
133,319
135,562
137,841
140,272
78,893
80,793
82,272
84,240
85,959
60.1
60.6
60.7
61.1
61.3
75,770
77,347
78,737
80,734
82,771
72,895
74,372
75,920
77,902
78,678
3,979
3,844
3,817
3,606
3,463
68,915
70,527
72,103
74,296
75,215
2,875
2,975
2,817
2,832
4,093
3.8
3.8
3.6
3.5
4.9
52,288
52,527
53,291
53,602
54,315
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
............................................................
............................................................
............................................................
............................................................
............................................................
143,033
146,574
149,423
152,349
155,333
87,198
89,484
91,756
94,179
95,955
61.0
61.1
61.4
61.8
61.8
84,382
87,034
89,429
91,949
93,775
79,367
82,153
85,064
86,794
85,846
3,394
3,484
3,470
3,515
3,408
75,972
78,669
81,594
83,279
82,438
5,016
4,882
4,365
5,156
7,929
5.9
5.6
4.9
5.6
8.5
55,834
57,091
57,667
58,171
59,377
1976
1977
1978
1979
............................................................
............................................................
............................................................
............................................................
158,294
161,166
164,027
166,951
98,302
101,142
104,368
107,050
62.1
62.8
63.6
64.1
96,158
99,009
102,251
104,962
88,752
92,017
96,048
98,824
3,331
3,283
3,387
3,347
85,421
88,734
92,661
95,477
7,406
6,991
6,202
6,137
7.7
7.1
6.1
5.8
59,991
60,025
59,659
59,900
1980 ............................................................
1981 ............................................................
169,848
172,272
109,042
110,812
64.2
64.3
106,940
108,670
99,303
100,397
3,364
3,368
95,938
97,030
7,637
8,273
7.1
7.6
60,806
61,460
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
65
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW July 1982 • Current Labor Statistics: Household Data
2.
Employment status by sex, age, and race, seasonally adjusted
[Numbers in thousands]
Annual average
1981
Employment status
1982
1980
1981
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept
Oct
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
169,848
109,042
167,745
106,940
99,303
3,364
95,938
7,637
7.1
60,806
172,272
110,812
170,130
108,670
100,397
3,368
97,030
8,273
7.6
61,460
171,956
111,420
169,829
109,293
101,045
3,405
97,640
8,248
7.5
60,536
172,172
110,565
170,042
108,434
100,430
3,348
97,082
8,004
7.4
61,608
172,385
110,827
170,246
108,688
100,864
3,342
97,522
7,824
7.2
61,558
172,559
110,978
170,399
108,818
100,840
3,404
97,436
7,978
7.3
61,581
172,758
110,659
170,593
108,494
100,258
3,358
96,900
8,236
7.6
62,099
172,966
111,170
170,809
109,012
100,343
3,378
96,965
8,669
8.0
61,797
173,155
111,430
170,996
109,272
100,172
3,372
96,800
9,100
8.3
61,724
173,330
111,348
171,166
109,184
99,613
3,209
96,404
9,571
8.8
61,982
173,495
111,038
171,335
108,879
99,581
3,411
96,170
9,298
8.5
62,456
173,657
111,333
171,489
109,165
99,590
3,373
96,217
9,575
8.8
62,324
173,843
111,521
171,667
109,346
99,492
3,349
96,144
9,854
9.0
62,321
174,020
111,824
171,844
109,648
99,340
3,309
96,032
10,307
9.4
62,197
174,201
112,841
172,026
110,666
100,117
3,488
96,629
10,549
9.5
61,360
71,138
56,455
53,101
2,396
50,706
3,353
5.9
14,683
72,419
57,197
53,582
2,384
51,199
3,615
6.3
15,222
72,251
57,479
53,884
2,390
51,494
3,595
6.3
14,772
72,359
57,094
53,597
2,379
51,218
3,497
6.1
15,265
72,472
57,172
53,874
2,383
51,491
3,298
5.8
15,300
72,559
57,250
53,791
2,422
51,369
3,459
6.0
15,309
72,670
57,262
53,693
2,383
51,310
3,569
6.2
15,408
72,795
57,355
53,504
2,413
51,091
3,851
6.7
15,440
72,921
57,459
53,354
2,382
50,972
4,105
7.1
15,462
73,020
57,665
53,122
2,311
50,811
4,543
7.9
15,355
73,120
57,368
53,047
2,390
50,657
4,322
7.5
15,752
73,209
57,448
53,097
2,386
50,711
4,351
7.6
15,761
73,287
57,554
53,006
2,377
50,629
4,548
7.9
15,733
73,392
57,730
52,988
2,382
50,606
4,742
8.2
15,662
73,499
58,164
53,260
2,464
50,796
4,904
8.4
15,335
80,065
41,106
38,492
584
37,907
2,615
6.4
38,959
81,497
42,485
39,590
604
38,986
2,895
6.8
39,012
81,308
42,608
39,737
605
39,132
2,871
6.7
38,700
81,434
42,581
39,757
585
39,172
2,824
6.6
38,853
81,561
42,682
39,810
590
39,220
2,872
6.7
38,879
81,671
42,666
39,841
609
39,232
2,825
6.6
39,005
81,792
42,344
39,426
608
38,818
2,918
6.9
39,448
81,920
42,831
39,814
596
39,218
3,017
7.0
39,089
82,038
42,987
39,878
635
39,243
3,109
7.2
39,051
82,151
42,888
39,713
572
39,141
3,175
7.4
39,263
82,260
42,868
39,764
649
39,115
3,104
7.2
39,392
82,367
43,031
39,744
628
39,116
3,286
7.6
39,336
82,478
43,243
39,807
636
39,172
3,435
7.9
39,235
82,591
43,301
39,715
601
39,114
c 3,586
8.3
39,290
82,707
43,683
40,075
634
39,441
3,608
8.3
39,024
16,543
9,378
7,710
385
7,325
1,669
17.8
7,165
16,214
8,988
7,225
380
6,845
1,763
19.6
7,226
16,270
9,206
7,424
410
7,014
1,782
19.4
7,064
16,249
8,759
7,076
384
6,692
1,683
19.2
7,490
16,213
8,834
7,180
369
6,811
1,654
18.7
7,379
16,169
8,902
7,208
373
6,835
1,694
19.0
7,267
16,131
8,888
7,139
367
6,772
1,749
19.7
7,243
16,093
8,826
7,025
369
6,656
1,801
20.4
7,267
16,037
8,826
6,940
355
6,585
1,886
21.4
7,211
15,995
8,631
6,778
326
6,452
1,853
21.5
7,364
15,955
8,643
6,771
373
6,398
1,872
21.7
7,312
15,913
8,686
6,748
359
6,389
1,938
22.3
7,227
15,902
8,549
6,679
336
6,343
1,870
21.9
7,353
15,861
8,616
6,637
326
6,311
1,979
23.0
7,245
15,820
8,819
6,782
390
6,392
2,037
23.1
7,001
146,122
93,600
87,715
5,884
6.3
52,522
147,908
95,052
88,709
6,343
6.7
52,856
147,670
95,666
89,237
6,429
6.7
52,004
147,804
94,887
88,799
6,088
6.4
52,917
147,976
95,126
89,170
5,956
6.3
52,850
148,144
95,163
89,221
5,942
6.2
52,981
148,370
94,884
88,628
6,256
6.6
53,486
148,562
95,365
88,734
6,631
7.0
53,197
148,631
95,535
88,498
7,037
7.4
53,096
148,755
95,329
88,010
7,319
7.7
53,426
148,842
95,120
87,955
7,165
7.5
53,722
148,855
95,333
87,990
7,344
7.7
53,522
149,132
95,508
87,956
7,552
7.9
53,624
149,249
96,015
87,988
8,026
8.4
53,234
149,250
96,641
88,450
8,191
8.5
52,609
17,824
10,865
9,313
1,553
14.3
6,959
18,219
11,086
9,355
1,731
15.6
7,133
18,170
11,126
9,460
1,666
15.0
7,044
18,206
11,033
9,310
1,723
15.6
7,173
18,239
10,971
9,338
1,633
14.9
7,268
18266
11,069
9,267
1,802
16.3
7,197
18,297
11,134
9,319
1,815
16.3
7,163
18,333
11,188
9,313
1,875
16.8
7,145
18,362
11,207
9,321
1,886
16.8
7,155
18,392
11,226
9,279
1,947
17.3
7,166
18,423
11,188
9,314
1,874
16.8
7,235
18,450
11,205
9,265
1,939
17.3
7,245
18,480
11,217
9,197
2,020
18.0
7,263
18,511
11,170
9,111
2,058
18.4
7,341
18,542
11,335
9,216
2,120
18.7
7,207
TOTAL
Total noninstitutional population' ..........................
Total labor force ......................................
Civilian noninstitutional population' ......................
Civilian labor force ................................
Employed ......................................
Agriculture ..............................
Nonagricultural Industries ........
Unemployed ..................................
Unemployment rate ........................
Not in labor force ..................................
Men, 20 years and over
Civilian noninstitutional population' ......................
Civilian labor force ......................................
Emoloyed ............................................
Agriculture ....................................
Nonagricultural industries ................
Unemployed ........................................
Unemployment rate ..............................
Not In labor force ........................................
Women, 20 years and over
Civilian noninstitutional population’ ......................
Civilian labor force ......................................
Employed ............................................
Agriculture ....................................
Nonagricultural industries ................
Unemployed ........................................
Unemployment rate ..............................
Not in labor force ........................................
Both sexes, 16 to 19 years
Civilian noninstitutional population’ ......................
Civilian labor force ......................................
Employed ............................................
Agriculture ....................................
Nonagricultural industries ................
Unemployed ........................................
Unemployment rate ..............................
Not in labor force ........................................
White
Civilian noninstitutional population' ......................
Civilian labor force ......................................
Employee ............................................
Unemployed ........................................
Unemployment rate ..............................
Not in labor force ........................................
Black
Civilian noninstitutional population' ......................
Civilian labor force ......................................
Employed ............................................
Unemployed ........................
Unemployment rate ............................
Not In labor force ....................................
’ As in table 1, population figures are not seasonally adjusted.
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Federal Reserve
Bank of St. Louis
66
c =corrected.
3.
Selected employment indicators, seasonally adjusted
[ Numbers in thousands]
Annual average
1982
1981
Selected categories
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Oct.
Nov.
100,343
57,266
43,077
38,746
23,874
100,172
57,051
43,121
38,553
23,820
99,613
56,725
42,888
38,342
23,691
99,581
56,629
42,952
38,234
23,744
99,590
56,658
42,932
38,255
23,727
99,492
56,472
43,020
38,181
23,900
99,340
56,401
42,940
38,142
23,831
52,908
16,598
11,533
6,441
18,336
31,266
12,514
10,524
3,506
4,722
13,391
2,743
53,199
16,681
11,616
6,400
18,502
30,953
12,446
10,410
3,580
4,517
13,525
2,770
53,086
16,657
11,461
6,418
18,550
30,683
12,411
10,220
3,438
4,614
13,670
2,802
53,084
16,774
11,424
6,450
18,436
30,344
12,446
10,169
3,368
4,361
13,639
2,660
52,836
16,803
11,091
6,520
18,423
30,203
12,370
9,966
3,415
4,451
13,709
2,817
52,841
16,612
11,253
6,544
18,432
30,309
12,454
9,955
3,503
4,397
13,612
2,787
52,763
16,659
11,311
6,637
18,155
30,416
12,511
9,860
3,397
4,648
13,526
2,710
53,177
16,844
11,501
6,603
18,229
29,924
12,492
9,688
3,400
4,343
13,555
2,623 .
1,501
1,638
256
1,461
1,643
256
1,502
1,631
261
1,436
1,641
321
1,352
1,602
228
1,377
1,674
380
1,426
1,596
359
1,416
1,644
277
1,423
1,664
270
1,541
1,698
236
89,971
15,637
74,334
1,216
73,118
7,071
389
89,995
15,526
74,469
1,259
73,210
7,103
387
89,376
15,475
73,901
1,102
72,799
7,217
399
89,460
15,491
73,969
1,162
72,807
7,152
451
89,238
15,397
73,841
1,204
72,637
7,141
425
88,991
15,585
73,406
1,291
72,115
7,057
410
88,759
15,578
73,181
1,248
71,932
6,971
410
88,586
15,527
73,059
1,161
71,898
7,055
408
88,526
15,492
73,034
1,225
71,809
7,126
434
88,322
15,453
72,869
1,192
71,677
7,264
413
89,051
15,422
73,629
1,202
72,427
7,269
382
92,532
75,620
4,374
1,680
2,694
12,538
91,569
74,467
4,350
1,729
2,621
12,752
90,878
73,794
4,656
1,759
2,897
12,428
91,384
73,886
5,009
2,006
3,003
12,489
91,323
73,915
5,026
1,945
3,081
12,382
90,922
73,360
5,288
2,121
3,167
12,274
90,125
72,803
5,071
1,783
3,287
12,251
90,892
73,028
5,563
2,193
3,370
12,300
90,548
72,649
5,717
2,237
3,480
12,183
90,596
72,335
5,834
2,223
3,611
12,427
91,282
73,036
5,763
2,211
3,552
12,483
Aug.
1980
1981
May
June
July
99,303
57,186
42,117
39,004
23,532
100,397
57,397
43,000
38,882
23,915
101,045
57,793
43,252
39,120
24,192
100,430
57,279
43,151
38,930
24,106
100,864
57,640
43,224
38,961
24,159
51,882
15,968
11,138
6,303
18,473
31,452
12,787
10,565
3,531
4,567
13,228
2,741
52,949
16,420
11,540
6,425
18,564
31,261
12,662
10,540
3,476
4,583
13,438
2,749
53,016
16,093
11,488
6,562
18,873
31,796
12,911
10,716
3,466
4,703
13,470
2,748
52,957
16,410
11,411
6,513
18,623
31,538
12,749
10,703
3,493
4,593
13,214
2,710
52,907
16,364
11,578
6,373
18,592
31,580
12,787
10,719
3,526
4,548
13,526
2,727
53,141
16,621
11,460
6,490
18,570
31,611
12,724
10,658
3,530
4,699
13,282
2,753
1,425
1,642
297
1,464
1,638
266
1,499
1,654
235
1,437
1,664
263
1,495
1,593
244
88,525
15,912
72,612
1,192
71,420
7,000
413
89,543
15,689
73,853
1,208
72,645
7,097
390
90,402
15,776
74,626
1,192
73,434
6,966
356
89,508
15,707
73,801
1,177
72,624
7,128
376
90,209
73,590
4,064
1,714
2,350
12,555
91,377
74,339
4,499
1,738
2,761
12,539
91,745
74,871
4,264
1,657
2,607
12,610
91,500
74,693
4,033
1,465
2,568
12,774
Sept.
CHARACTERISTIC
Total employed, 16 years and over ......................
Married men, spouse present ........................
Married women, spouse present....................
100,840 100,258
57,551 57,471
43,289 42,787
38,961 38,855
24,043 23,626
100,117
56,820
43,297
38,312
24,213
OCCUPATION
Professional and technical ............................
Managers and administrators, except farm . . . .
Salesworkers................................................
Clerical workers............................................
Blue-collar workers..............................................
Craft and kindred workers ............................
Operatives, except transport..........................
Transport equipment operatives ....................
Nonfarm laborers..........................................
Service workers..................................................
Farmworkers ......................................................
53,705
16,818
11,541
6,587
18,759
29,926
12,316
9,585
3,419
4,607
13,738
2,731
MAJOR INDUSTRY AND CLASS
OF WORKER
Agriculture:
Wage and salary workers..............................
Self-employed workers..................................
Unpaid family workers ..................................
Nonagricultural industries:
Wage and salary workers..............................
Private industries....................................
Private households ..........................
Other industries ..............................
Self-employed workers..................................
Unpaid family workers ..................................
PERSONS AT WORK ’
Nonagricultural industries ....................................
Full-time schedules ......................................
Part time for economic reasons......................
Usually work part tim e............................
Part time for noneconomic reasons................
'Excludes persons “with a job but not at work” during the survey period for such reasons as vacation, illness, or industrial disputes.
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
67
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW July 1982 • Current Labor Statistics: Household Data
4.
Selected unemployment indicators, seasonally adjusted
[Unemployment rates]
Annual average
1981
1982
Selected categories
1980
1981
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Total, 16 years and over......................................
Men, 20 years and over ................................
Women, 20 years and over............................
Both sexes, 16 to 19 years............................
7.1
5.9
6.4
17.8
7.6
6.3
6.8
19.6
7.5
6.3
6.7
19.4
7.4
6.1
6.6
19.2
7.2
5.8
6.7
18.7
7.3
6.0
6.6
19.0
7.6
6.2
6.9
19.7
8.0
6.7
7.0
20.4
8.3
7.1
7.2
21.4
8.8
7.9
7.4
21.5
8.5
7.5
7.2
21.7
8.8
7.6
7.6
22.3
9.0
7.9
7.9
21.9
9.4
8.2
8.3
23.0
9.5
8.4
8.3
23.1
White, total ..................................................
Men, 20 years and over..........................
Women, 20 years and over ....................
Both sexes, 16 to 19 years ....................
6.3
5.3
5.6
15.5
6.7
5.6
5.9
17.3
6.7
5.6
5.9
17.5
6.4
5.3
5.7
16.8
6.3
5.0
5.8
16.4
6.2
5.2
5.5
16.1
6.6
5.5
5.9
17.2
7,0
5.9
6.1
17.7
7.4
6.4
6.3
19.0
7.7
6.9
6.4
19.0
7.5
6.6
6.3
19.6
7.7
6.7
6.6
20.0
7.9
7.0
6.9
19.0
8.4
7.3
7.2
20.8
8.5
7.5
7.3
20.3
Black, total ..................................................
Men, 20 years and over..........................
Women, 20 years and over ....................
Both sexes, 16 to 19 years ....................
14.3
12.4
11.9
38.5
15.6
13.5
13.4
41.4
15.0
13.0
13.1
36.9
15.6
13.7
13.3
40.9
14.9
12.7
13.1
40.0
16.3
13.6
13.8
49.0
16.3
14.5
14.0
40.8
16.8
14.7
13.9
45.6
16.8
15.5
13.6
44.1
17.3
16.5
14.1
42.2
16.8
16.3
13.3
41.2
17.3
16.0
14.5
42.3
18.0
16.0
15.4
46.0
18.4
16.9
15.6
48.1
18.7
17.0
15.3
49.8
Married men, spouse present ........................
Married women, spouse present....................
Women who maintain families........................
Full-time workers..........................................
Part-time workers..........................................
Unemployed 15 weeks and over....................
Labor force time lo s t'....................................
4.2
5.8
9.2
6.9
8.8
1.7
7.9
4.3
6.0
10.4
7.3
9.4
2.1
8.5
4.0
5.8
10.4
7.1
9.6
2.0
8.6
4.2
5.7
10.7
7.1
9.2
2.2
7.9
3.9
5.7
11.2
6.8
9.3
2.0
7.9
4.0
5.5
10.1
6.9
9.6
2.0
7.9
4.4
6.0
10.7
7.3
9.6
2.1
8.5
4.8
6.1
10.6
7.7
9.5
2.1
9.1
5.2
6.5
10.8
8.1
10.2
2.2
9.5
5.7
6.6
10.5
8.7
9.2
2.2
10.1
5.3
6.2
10.4
8.4
9.6
2.2
10.0
5.3
7.0
10.2
8.5
10.8
2.5
9.8
5.5
7.1
10.6
8.9
10.0
2.7
10.4
6.0
7.8
11.5
9.2
10.9
2.7
10.4
6.1
7.4
11.8
9.2
10.5
3.0
11.1
3.7
2.5
2.4
4.4
5.3
10.0
6.6
12.2
8.8
14.6
7.9
4.6
4.0
2.8
2.7
4.6
5.7
10.3
7.5
12.2
8.7
14.7
8.9
5.3
4.0
2.8
2.6
4.6
5.6
9.9
7.2
11.8
8.2
13.5
9.4
5.2
3.9
2.8
2.7
4.3
5.4
9.8
7.1
11.1
8.1
14.7
8.9
6.2
4.0
2.8
2.6
4.9
5.7
9.5
6.9
11.1
7.3
14.4
8.0
4.8
3.9
2.5
2.7
4.7
5.7
9.5
7.0
11.1
8.0
13.2
8.9
5.4
4.1
2.8
2.7
5.0
5.8
10.2
7.7
11.6
8.7
14.6
9.0
4.0
4.1
2.6
2.8
4.9
6.0
10.9
8.3
12.8
8.0
15.6
9.3
6.2
4.2
2.7
3.0
5.0
6.0
11.8
8.5
14.1
10.4
16.0
9.7
6.2
4.5
3.4
3.1
4.9
6.2
12.7
9.3
15.5
10.5
16.9
9.6
6.4
4.2
2.9
2.7
4.5
6.3
12.5
9.0
15.4
10.2
16.9
9.2
6.9
4.6
3.1
3.1
4.8
6.7
12.5
8.4
15.4
10.3
17.9
9.8
4.9
4.8
3.2
3.0
5.8
6.9
12.9
9.1
15.9
10.4
17.9
10.2
5.4
4.9
3.2
3.3
5.6
7.2
13.7
9.6
16.9
10.7
19.2
11.1
5.8
4.8
3.3
3.5
5.2
6.8
13.5
9.4
16.5
11.8
18.3
11.3
8.3
7.4
14.1
8.5
8.9
7.9
4.9
7.4
5.3
4.1
11.0
7.7
15.6
8.3
8.2
8.4
5.2
8.1
5.9
4.7
12.1
7.7
15.7
7.8
7.4
8.6
5.7
8.3
5.8
4.7
11.0
7.4
16.1
7.4
7.1
7.9
4.9
7.7
5.8
4.6
13.3
7.2
15.2
7.3
7.1
7.6
4.1
7.9
5.7
4.6
10.7
7.3
16.2
7.0
6.5
7.9
4.8
7.9
5.7
4.5
12.0
7.7
16.3
7.9
7.7
8.3
4.2
8.5
6.0
4.7
11.0
8.1
17.6
8.6
8.6
8.6
4.8
8.4
6.2
4.7
13.4
8.4
178
9.4
9.5
9.3
5.5
8.6
6.1
5.2
14.1
9.1
18.1
11.0
11.8
9.6
6.0
8.9
6.4
5.0
14.8
8.8
18.7
10.4
11.0
9.5
6.4
8.7
5.9
4.8
16.2
9.0
18.1
10.6
11.3
9.5
5.9
9.0
6.5
5.2
12.8
9.5
17.9
10.8
10.8
10.8
5.6
10.3
6.9
4.9
14.0
9.9
19.4
11.3
11.9
10.5
7.0
10.1
7.0
5.3
14.6
9.9
18.8
11.6
12.2
10.7
6.5
10.6
6.9
5.0
18.2
CHARACTERISTIC
OCCUPATION
White-collar workers............................................
Professional and technical ............................
Managers and administrators, except farm . . . .
Salesworkers................................................
Clerical workers............................................
Blue-collar workers..............................................
Craft and kindred workers ............................
Operatives, except transport..........................
Transport equipment operatives ....................
Nonfarm laborers..........................................
Service workers..................................................
Farmworkers ......................................................
INDUSTRY
Nonagricultural private wage and salary workers2 .
Construction ................................................
Manufacturing ..............................................
Durable goods ......................................
Nondurable goods..................................
Transportation and public utilities....................
Wholesale and retail trade ............................
Finance and service industries........................
Government workers ..........................................
Agricultural wage and salary workers....................
1Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as a
percent of potentially available labor force hours.
68FRASER
Digitized for
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
2Includes mining, not shown separately,
5.
Unemployment rates, by sex and age, seasonally adjusted
Sex and age
Annual average
1981
1980
1981
Total, 16 years and over........
16 to 19 years................
16 to 17 years..........
18 to 19 years..........
20 to 24 years................
25 years and over ..........
25 to 54 years..........
55 years and over . . .
7.1
17.8
20.0
16.2
11.5
5.1
5.5
3.3
7.6
19.6
21.4
18.4
12.3
5.4
5.8
3.6
7.5
19.4
21.3
17.7
12.6
5.2
5.6
3.4
7.4
19.2
22.6
17.5
12.1
5.3
5.6
3.5
7.2
18.7
19.8
17.8
11.5
5.2
5.5
3.5
Men, 16 years and over ..
16 to 19 years..........
16 to 17 years ..
18 to 19 years ..
20 to 24 years..........
25 years and over . . .
25 to 54 years . .
55 years and over
6.9
18.3
20.4
16.7
12.5
4.8
5.1
3.3
7.4
20.1
22.0
18.8
13.2
5.1
5.5
3.5
7.3
20.0
22.3
18.0
13.8
4.7
5.1
3.4
7.2
20.0
24.0
18.2
12.9
5.0
5.2
3.4
Women, 16 years and over
16 to 19 years..........
16 to 17 years ..
18 to 19 years ..
20 to 24 years..........
25 years and over . . .
25 to 54 years ..
55 years and over
7.4
17.2
19.6
15.6
10.4
5.5
6.0
3.2
7.9
19.0
20.7
17.9
11.2
5.9
6.3
3.8
7.8
18.7
20.2
17.4
11.2
5.8
6.4
3.4
7.7
18.4
21.1
16.8
11.2
5.7
6.1
3.5
6.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
7.3
19.0
20.8
17.6
12.1
5.2
5.5
3.5
7.6
19.7
21.4
18.5
12.3
5.4
5.8
3.8
8.0
20,4
21.5
20.0
12.7
5.7
6.2
3.8
8.3
21.4
22.6
20.5
13.0
6.0
6.5
3.8
8.8
21.5
21.9
21.2
13.5
6.5
6.9
4.1
6.7
18.8
19.9
17.9
11.6
4.7
5.0
3.4
7.1
19.8
21.5
18.3
12.9
4.9
5.2
3.4
7.3
19.9
21.5
18.7
13.1
5.0
5.5
3.5
7.7
20.1
21.1
19.3
13.8
5.5
5.9
3.7
8.3
21.8
22.7
21.0
14.4
5.8
6.3
3.7
9.0
22.3
22.6
22.2
14.8
6.5
6.9
4.4
7.8
18.6
19.7
17.7
11.3
5.8
6.1
3.7
7.7
18.2
20.0
16.9
11.1
5.6
6.0
3.7
8.0
19.5
21.2
18.3
11.4
6.0
6.3
4.3
8.2
20.7
21.9
20.6
11.5
6.1
6.5
4.0
8.4
20.9
22.5
19.9
11.3
6.4
6.8
3.8
8.5
20.5
21.1
20.0
12.0
6.4
6.9
3.7
Apr.
May
Unemployed persons, by reason for unemployment, seasonally adjusted
[Numbers in thousands]
1981
Reason for unemployment
1982
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
4,032
1,357
2,675
1,004
2,106
956
4,173
1,302
2,871
896
2,039
973
3,867
1,225
2,642
926
2,078
940
4,106
1,276
2,830
879
2,034
971
4,426
1,452
2,974
921
2,058
977
4,573
1,631
2,942
976
2,178
1,002
4,905
1,826
3,079
916
2,339
996
5,343
2,042
3,301
923
2,244
1,021
5,205
1,860
3,345
835
2,079
1,055
5,153
1,740
3,413
964
2,277
1,100
5,622
1,828
3,794
885
2,249
1,044
5,906
1,946
3,959
937
2,365
1,081
5,901
1,969
3,932
874
2,438
1,154
100.0
498
16.8
33.0
12.4
26.0
11.8
100.0
51.6
16.1
35.5
11.1
25.2
12.0
100.0
49.5
15.7
33.8
11.9
26.6
12.0
100.0
51.4
16.0
35.4
11.0
25.5
12.2
100.0
52.8
17.3
35.5
11.0
24.6
11.7
100.0
52.4
18.7
33.7
11.2
25.0
11.5
100.0
53.6
19.9
33.6
10.0
25.5
10.9
100.0
56.1
21.4
34.6
9.7
23.5
10.7
100.0
56.7
20.3
36.5
9.1
22.7
11.5
100.0
54.3
18.3
35.9
10.2
24.0
11.6
100.0
57.4
18.7
38.7
9.0
22.9
10.7
100.0
57.4
18.9
38.5
9.1
23.0
10.5
100.0
56.9
190
37.9
8.4
23.5
11.1
3.7
.9
1.9
.9
3.8
.8
1.9
.9
3.6
.9
1.9
.9
3.8
.8
1.9
9
4.1
.8
1.9
.9
4.2
.9
2.0
.9
4.5
.8
2.1
.9
4.9
.8
2.1
.9
4.8
.8
1.9
1.0
4.7
,9
2.1
1.0
5.1
8
2.1
1.0
5.4
9
22
1.0
53
8
22
1.0
NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED
Lost last jo b ........................................
On layoff............................
Other job losers..........................
Left last job ..........................
Reentered labor force....................
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION
Total unemployed......................
On layoff................................
Other job losers......................
Job leavers ..............................
Reentrants............................
New entrants ..........................
UNEMPLOYED AS A PERCENT OF
THE CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE
Job losers ......................
Job leavers ......................
Reentrants........................
New entrants ........................
7.
Duration of unemployment, seasonally adjusted
[Numbers In thousands]
Weeks of unemployment
Less than 5 weeks................................
5 to 14 weeks ..................
15 weeks and over..................................
15 to 26 weeks ................................
27 weeks and over....................................
Average (mean) duration, in weeks ................
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Annual average
1981
1982
1980
1981
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
3,295
2,470
1,871
1,052
820
11.9
3,449
2,539
2,285
1,122
1,162
13.7
3,378
2,606
2,231
1,061
1,170
13.3
3,303
2,423
2,363
1,227
1,136
14.3
3,323
2,312
2,170
1,096
1,074
14.1
3,326
2,469
2,217
1,078
1,139
14.3
3,529
2,585
2,248
1,146
1,102
13.7
3,707
2,686
2,292
1,166
1,126
13.6
3,852
2,882
2,364
1,229
1,135
13.1
4,037
3,016
2,372
1,189
1,183
12.8
3,852
3,068
2,399
1,210
1,190
13.5
3,789
3,052
2,724
1,445
1,278
14.1
3,825
3,078
2,954
1,605
1,349
13.9
3,958
3,304
3,015
1,508
1,507
14.2
3,874
3,320
3,286
1,634
1,652
14.6
69
EM PLOYM ENT, HOURS, AND EARNINGS DATA FRO M ESTABLISHM ENT SURVEYS
E m p l o y m e n t , h o u r s , a n d e a r n i n g s d a t a in th is se c tio n are
c o m p ile d fro m p a y ro ll record s rep orted m o n th ly on a v o lu n
ta ry b a sis to th e B ureau o f L ab or S ta tistic s an d its c o o p e r a t
in g S ta te a g en cies b y 1 7 7 ,0 0 0 e sta b lish m e n ts rep resen tin g all
in d u stries e x ce p t agricu ltu re. In m o st in d u stries, th e sa m p lin g
p ro b a b ilities are b a sed o n th e size o f th e e sta b lish m en t; m o st
la rg e esta b lish m e n ts are th erefore in th e sa m p le. (A n e sta b
lish m e n t is n o t n ecessa rily a firm; it m a y be a b ran ch p la n t,
payments. Real earnings are earnings adjusted to eliminate the effects
of price change, using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage
Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). The H ou rly Earnings Index
is calculated from average hourly earnings data adjusted to exclude
the effects of two types of changes that are unrelated to underlying
wage-rate developments: fluctuations in overtime premiums in manu
facturing (the only sector for which overtime data are available) and
the effects of changes and seasonal factors in the proportion of work
ers in high-wage and low-wage industries.
for ex a m p le, or w a reh o u se.) S e lf-em p lo y e d p erso n s a n d o th ers
n o t o n a regu lar civ ilia n p a y ro ll are o u ts id e th e sc o p e o f th e
su rv ey b e ca u se th ey are e x clu d ed from e sta b lish m e n t record s.
T h is la rg ely a c c o u n ts for th e d ifferen ce in e m p lo y m e n t figures
b etw een th e h o u se h o ld a n d e sta b lish m e n t su rveys.
Definitions
Notes on the data
Employed persons are all persons who received pay (including holi
day and sick pay)
12th of the month.
cent of all persons
ment which reports
for any part of the payroll period including the
Persons holding more than one job (about 5 per
in the labor force) are counted in each establish
them.
Production workers in manufacturing include blue-collar worker
supervisors and all nonsupervisory workers closely associated with
production operations. Those workers mentioned in tables 12-17 in
clude production workers in manufacturing and mining; construction
workers in construction; and nonsupervisory workers in transporta
tion and public utilities; in wholesale and retail trade; in finance, in
surance, and real estate; and in services industries. These groups
account for about four-fifths of the total employment on private
nonagricultural payrolls.
Earnings are the payments production or nonsupervisory workers
receive during the survey period, including premium pay for overtime
or late-shift work but excluding irregular bonuses and other special
70
Hours represent the average weekly hours of production or
nonsupervisory workers for which pay was received and are different
from standard or scheduled hours. Overtime hours represent the por
tion of gross average weekly hours which were in excess of regular
hours and for which overtime premiums were paid.
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Establishment data collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics are
periodically adjusted to comprehensive counts of employment (called
“benchmarks”). The latest complete adjustment was made with the re
lease of May 1982 data, published in the July 1982 issue of the Review.
Consequently, data published in the R eview prior to that issue are not
necessarily comparable to current data. Complete comparable histori
cal unadjusted and seasonally adjusted data are published in a Supple
ment to Employment and Earnings (unadjusted data from April 1977
through February 1982 and seasonally adjusted data from January
1974 through February 1982) and in E m p lo ym en t a n d Earnings, U nit
e d States, 1 9 09-78, BLS Bulletin 1312-11 (for prior periods).
A comprehensive discussion of the differences between household
and establishment data on employment appears in Gloria P. Green,
“Comparing employment estimates from household and payroll sur
veys,” M o n th ly L a b o r Review, December 1969, pp. 9-20. See also B L S
H a n dbook o f M eth ods f o r S u rveys a n d Studies, Bulletin 1910 (Bureau
of Labor Statistics, 1976).
8.
Employment by industry, selected years, 1950-81
[Nonagricultural payroll data, In thousands]
Year
Total
Mining
Government
Construc
tion
Manufac
turing
Trans
portation
and
public
utilities
Whole
sale
and
retail
trade
Wholesale
trade
Retail
trade
Finance,
insur
ance,
and real
estate
Services
Total
Federal
State
and local
1950 ..........................................................
1955 ..........................................................
I960’ ........................................................
1964 ..........................................................
1965 ..........................................................
45,197
50,641
54,189
58,283
60,765
901
792
712
634
632
2,364
2,839
2,926
3,097
3,232
15,241
16,882
16,796
17,274
18,062
4,034
4,141
4,004
3,951
4,036
9,386
10,535
11,391
12,160
12,716
2,635
2,926
3,143
3,337
3,466
6,751
7,610
8,248
8,823
9,250
1,888
2,298
2,629
2,911
2,977
5,357
6,240
7,378
8,660
9,036
6,026
6,914
8,353
9,596
10,074
1,928
2,187
2,270
2,348
2,378
4,098
4,727
6,083
7,248
7,696
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
..........................................................
..........................................................
..........................................................
..........................................................
..........................................................
63,901
65,803
67,897
70,384
70,880
627
613
606
619
623
3,317
3,248
3,350
3,575
3,588
19,214
19,447
19,781
20,167
19,367
4,158
4,268
4,318
4,442
4,515
13,245
13,606
14,099
14,705
15,040
3,597
3,689
3,779
3,907
3,993
9,648
9,917
10,320
10,798
11,047
3,058
3,185
3,337
3,512
3,645
9,498
10,045
10,567
11,169
11,548
10,784
11,391
11,839
12,195
12,554
2,564
2,719
2,737
2,758
2,731
8,220
8,672
9,102
9,437
9,823
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
..........................................................
..........................................................
..........................................................
..........................................................
..........................................................
71,214
73,675
76,790
78,265
76,945
609
628
642
697
752
3,704
3,889
4,097
4,020
3,525
18,623
19,151
20,154
20,077
18,323
4,476
4,541
4,656
4,725
4,542
15,352
15,949
16,607
16,987
17,060
4,001
4,113
4,277
4,433
4,415
11,351
11,836
12,329
12,554
12,645
3,772
3,908
4,046
4,148
4,165
11,797
12,276
12,857
13,441
13,892
12,881
13,334
13,732
14,170
14,686
2,696
2,684
2,663
2,724
2,748
10,185
10,649
11,068
11,446
11,937
1976 ..........................................................
1977 ..........................................................
1978 ..........................................................
1979 ..........................................................
1980' .......................................................
79,382
82,471
86,697
89,823
90,406
779
813
851
958
1,027
3,576
3,851
4,229
4,463
4,346
18,997
19,682
20,505
21,040
20,285
4,582
4,713
4,923
5,136
5,146
17,755
18,516
19,542
20,192
20,310
4,546
4,708
4,969
5,204
5,275
13,209
13,808
14,573
14,989
15,035
4,271
4,467
4,724
4,975
5,160
14,551
15,303
16,252
17,112
17,890
14,871
15,127
15,672
15,947
16,241
2,733
2,727
2,753
2,773
2,866
12,138
12,399
12,919
13,147
13,375
1 9 8 1 '.......................................................
91,105
1,132
4,176
20,173
5,157
20,551
5,359
15,192
5,301
18,592
16,024
2,772
13,253
'Data Include Alaska and Hawaii beginning In 1959.
9.
r=revised.
Employment by State
[Nonagricultural payroll data, in thousands]
Apr. 1982"
State
Apr. 1981
Mar. 1982
Apr. 1982'’
State
Apr. 1981
Mar. 1982
Alabama ......................................................................
Alaska..........................................................................
Arizona ........................................................................
Arkansas ......................................................................
California......................................................................
1,346.3
171.0
1,045.6
746.0
9,991.8
1,332.6
176.8
1,050.1
722.0
10,034.7
1,337.5
180.5
1,048.7
726.0
10,020.2
Montana..................................................................
Nebraska ................................................................
Nevada ..................................................................
New Hampshire ......................................................
New Jersey ............................................................
281.0
623.8
408.2
387.3
3,072.4
288.5
609.7
412.9
386.8
3,037.6
290.7
611.4
414.4
389.0
3,046.6
Colorado ......................................................................
Connecticut ..................................................................
Delaware......................................................................
District of Columbia........................................................
Florida..........................................................................
1,273.0
1,439.4
259.1
612.2
3,735.4
1,284.5
1,413.9
253.7
600.9
3,828.9
1,288.1
1,417.7
256.0
602.0
3,809.9
New Mexico............................................................
New York................................................................
North Carolina ........................................................
North Dakota ..........................................................
Ohio ......................................................................
475.0
7,259.0
2,395.4
244.9
4,326.0
472.7
7,229.3
2,343.1
245.5
4,192.5
474.9
7,248.0
2,352.8
247.6
4,220.2
Georgia ........................................................................
Hawaii..........................................................................
Idaho............................................................................
Illinois ..........................................................................
Indiana..........................................................................
2,191.2
406.7
326.5
4,720.9
2,122.7
2,159.7
403.1
314.6
4,618.3
2,025.9
2,164.2
403.1
315.7
4,624.6
2,032.5
Oklahoma ..............................................................
Oregon ..................................................................
Pennsylvania ..........................................................
Rhode Island ..........................................................
South Carolina........................................................
1,186.5
1,021.7
4,731.5
400.0
1,204.6
1,213.8
971.3
4,577.9
386.9
1,180.8
1,216.9
970.7
4,589.1
387.2
1,189.1
Iowa ............................................................................
Kansas ........................................................................
Kentucky ......................................................................
Louisiana......................................................................
Maine ..........................................................................
1,106.7
954.7
1,196.6
1,614.0
412.0
1,044.8
939.8
1,164.7
1,630.6
398.9
1,059.4
939.8
1,167.7
1,628.3
403.0
South Dakota..........................................................
Tennessee ..............................................................
Texas ....................................................................
Utah ......................................................................
Vermont..................................................................
235.5
1,751.5
6,086.8
550.7
200.2
229.5
1,720.0
6,298.1
560.3
200.3
231.5
1,720.8
6,307.5
560.6
197.2
Maryland ......................................................................
Massachusetts..............................................................
Michigan ......................................................................
Minnesota ....................................................................
Mississippi ....................................................................
Missouri........................................................................
1,723.1
2,669.2
3,389.4
1,760.3
824.5
1,978.4
1,663.7
2,606.3
3,223.8
1,711.0
809.4
1,940.6
1,683.5
2,625.1
3,205.3
1,724.8
808.6
1,958.9
Virginia....................................................................
Washington ............................................................
West Virginia ..........................................................
Wisconsin................................................................
Wyoming ................................................................
2,146.2
1,605.6
585.0
1,908.8
209.9
2,144.8
1,550.7
609.5
1,857.0
210.7
2,155.0
1,553.3
606.6
1,856.2
213.3
Virgin Islands ..........................................................
37.9
36.6
35.9
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
71
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW July 1982 • Current Labor Statistics: Establishment Data
10.
Employment by industry division and major manufacturing group
[Nonagricultural payroll data, in thousands]
Annual average
1981
1982
Industry division and group
TOTAL ........................................................
MINING ..........................................
CONSTRUCTION ....................................
1980
1981
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.p
Mayp
90,406
91,105
91,432
92,056
91,107
91,087
91,620
91,884
91,765
91,437
89,269
89,413
89,679
89,897
90,259
1,027
1,132
986
1,159
1,184
1,200
1,201
1,196
1,203
1,200
1,183
1,180
1,178
1,171
1,159
4,009
3,576
3,559
3,631
3,750
3,907
19,059
12,961
19,049
12,966
4,346
4,176
4,235
4,350
4,415
4,431
4,366
4,340
4,221
MANUFACTURING......................................
Production workers..................................
20,285
14,214
20,173
14,021
20,262
14,141
20,445
14,267
20,246
14,043
20,370
14,153
20,499
14,304
20,271
14,079
20,025
13,834
19,705
13,515
19,353
13,200
19,299
13,168
19,207
13,093
Durable goods
Production workers..................................
12,187
8,442
12,117
8,301
12,220
8,426
12,317
8,486
12,179
8,330
12,164
8,302
12,272
8,423
12,144
8,297
11,979
8,135
11,762
7,922
11,557
7,739
11,503
7,705
11,454
7,664
11,341
7,561
11,323
7,549
Lumber and wood products ............................
Furniture and fixtures......................................
Stone, clay, and glass products ......................
Primary metal industries..................................
Fabricated metal products ..............................
Machinery, except electrical............................
Electric and electronic equipment....................
Transportation equipment................................
Instruments and related products ....................
Miscellaneous manufacturing ..........................
690.5
465.8
662.1
1,142.2
1,613.1
2,494.0
2,090.6
1,899.7
711.3
418.0
668.7
467.3
638.2
1,121.1
1,592.4
2,507.0
2,092.2
1,892.6
726.8
410.7
692.6
469.5
647.9
1,140.0
1,605.6
2,501.3
2,093.1
1,936.8
723.8
409.3
699.4
470.9
658.2
1,148.1
1,616.6
2,524.9
2,109.5
1,942.6
732.3
414.9
696.9
462.3
654.2
1,128.4
1,593.6
2,512.2
2,096.0
1,897.0
731.2
407.5
691.2
470.6
656.3
1,132.6
1,599.9
2,507.1
2,102.5
1,850.8
735.8
417.0
680.9
474.9
652.0
1,131.7
1,615.8
2,536.2
2,120.0
1,904.5
732.6
423.8
654.5
473.9
639.8
1,102.2
1,591.8
2,525.1
2,113.3
1,888.9
729.6
425.0
629.1
467.4
628.5
1,081.0
1,570.4
2,510.0
2,086.8
1,857.0
727.6
421.5
606.4
461.9
606.9
1,051.5
1,539.3
2,494.7
2,061.4
1,806.3
726.5
406.8
587.1
454.2
576.0
1,034.9
1,508.7
2,464.8
2,056.6
1,766.0
719.0
389.8
5929
450.8
571.5
1,018.4
1,500.3
2,458.5
2,045.2
1,758.5
715.3
391.3
592.0
446.3
574.2
1,004.4
1,491.3
2,428.8
2,034.2
1,776.2
713.8
392.3
602.2
443.9
580.2
977.9
1,474.5
2,383.3
2,030.0
1,749.1
711.3
388.9
614.1
440.7
587.8
960.6
1,464.3
2,360.6
2,030.8
1,765.6
711.4
386.7
Nondurable goods ..........................................
Production workers..................................
8,098
5,772
8,056
5,721
8,042
5,715
8,128
5,781
8,067
5,713
8,206
5,851
8,227
5,881
8,127
5,782
8,046
5,699
7,943
5,593
7,796
5,461
7,796
5,463
7,753
5,429
7,718
5,400
7,726
5,417
Food and kindred products..............................
Tobacco manufactures ..................................
Textile mill products........................................
Apparel and other textile products ..................
Paper and allied products ..............................
Printing and publishing....................................
Chemicals and allied products ........................
Petroleum and coal products ..........................
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products . . .
Leather and leather products ..........................
1,708.0
68.9
847.7
1,263.5
692.8
1,252.1
1,107.4
197.9
726.8
232.9
1,674.3
69.8
822.5
1,244.0
687.8
1,265.8
1,107.3
215.6
736.1
233.0
1,638.4
64.2
827.6
1,256.6
689.0
1,259.9
1,110.1
217.5
741.1
237.2
1,663.9
65.5
834.1
1,271.8
696.5
1,264.0
1,121.6
220.0
750.9
240.1
1,703.0
65.3
819.6
1,218.2
691.8
1,264.0
1,116.7
221.1
738.8
228.4
1,759.6
73.8
829.7
1,260.3
695.5
1,265.9
1,112.0
220.7
749.2
239.1
1,763.2
75.7
831.9
1,270.5
697.1
1,270.0
1,110.1
218.0
752.9
237.4
1,719.4
75.0
816.4
1,257.9
686.4
1,274.5
1,104.4
216.8
740.0
235.8
1,680,8
73.1
809.1
1,243.5
681.1
1,279.4
1,100.1
215.9
730.5
232.4
1,649.1
71.7
798.2
1,210.5
676.0
1,286.3
1,096.9
212.5
718.3
223.5
1,605.0
70.5
777.6
1,175.8
669.3
1,273.8
1,089.0
204.7
710.8
219.0
1,604.7
67.5
776.6
1,194.4
665.8
1,276.9
1,087.5
203.2
706.5
212.5
1,597.9
64.2
760.0
1,184.5
665.1
1,279.1
1,087.1
203.7
699.8
211.6
1,578.6
61.9
771.8
1,168.4
663.1
1,274.9
1,081.2
203.3
701.5
213.4
1,603.0
60.9
754.4
1,169.1
660.7
1,270.8
1,079.1
208.5
702.3
217.0
TRANSPORTATION AND PUBLIC UTILITIES
WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE......................
5,146
5,157
5,151
5,199
5,181
5,180
5,227
5,208
5,188
5,157
5,065
5,051
5,049
5,053
5,059
20,310
20,551
20,520
20,671
20,600
20,664
20,731
20,731
20,883
21,170
20,417
20,258
20,306
20,445
20,603
WHOLESALE TRADE ..........................................
5,275
5,359
5,351
5,397
5,391
5,402
5,388
5,400
5,398
5,372
5,314
5,303
5,309
5,304
5,314
RETAIL TRADE....................................................
15,035
15,192
15,169
15,274
15,209
15,262
15,343
15,331
15,485
15,798
15,103
14,955
14,997
15,141
15,289
FINANCE, INSURANCE, AND REAL ESTATE . . . .
5,160
5,301
5,296
5,353
5,376
5,374
5,327
5,314
5,308
5,313
5,290
5,285
5,304
5,312
5,327
SERVICES ..........................................................
17,890
18,592
18,594
18,711
18,771
18,771
18,740
18,824
18,800
18,775
18,523
18,696
18,828
18,962
18,996
GOVERNMENT ....................................................
Federal..........................................................
State and local ..............................................
16,241
2,866
13,375
16,024
2,772
13,253
16,388
2,782
13,606
16,168
2,825
13,343
15,334
2,833
12,501
15,097
2,803
12,294
15,529
2,735
12,794
16,000
2,737
13,263
16,137
2,729
13,408
16,108
2,729
13,379
15,862
2,717
13,145
16,085
2,723
13,362
16,176
2,725
13,451
16,145
2,730
13,415
16,159
2,733
13,426
Note: In accordance with usual practice, BLS has revised establishment survey data to reflect a new
benchmark and updated seasonal adjustment factors. Because of these revisions, establishment data in
72 FRASER
Digitized for
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
this table may differ from data published earlier. See technical note, page 70.
11.
Employment by industry division and major manufacturing group, seasonally adjusted
[Nonagricultural payroll data, In thousands]
1981
1982
Industry division and group
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.p
May»
TOTAL ..........................................................................................
91,131
91,286
91,396
91,322
91,363
91,224
90,996
90,642
90,460
90,459
90,304
89,993
89,969
MINING ..............................................................................................
985
1,137
1,164
1,180
1,192
1,195
1,202
1,206
1,201
1,203
1,197
1,182
1,158
3,934
3,890
3,899
CONSTRUCTION ................................................................................
4,223
4,185
4,175
4,146
4,124
4,101
4,071
4,026
3,966
3,974
MANUFACTURING..............................................................................
Production workers..................................................................
20,332
14,190
20,334
14,177
20,379
14,212
20,311
14,136
20,267
14,087
20,097
13,915
19,903
13,717
19,676
13,488
19,517
13,341
19,454
13,290
19,319
13,179
19,154
13,031
19,120
13,014
Durable goods
Production workers..................................................................
12,237
8,428
12,246
8,427
12,266
8,439
12,228
8,389
12,184
8,345
12,059
8,218
11,901
8,061
11,724
7,885
11,622
7,793
11,575
7,759
11,490
7j685
11,360
7,564
11,341
7,553
Lumber and wood products ............................................................
Furniture and fixtures......................................................................
Stone, clay, and glass products ......................................................
Primary metal industries..................................................................
Fabricated metal products ..............................................................
Machinery, except electrical............................................................
Electric and electronic equipment....................................................
Transportation equipment................................................................
Instruments and related products ....................................................
Miscellaneous manufacturing ..........................................................
694
473
646
1,137
1,613
2,506
2,101
1,930
726
411
685
474
644
1,137
1,611
2,516
2,104
1,938
726
411
683
476
644
1,132
1,617
2,527
2,112
1,925
731
419
671
475
643
1,134
1,610
2,532
2,116
1,901
734
412
661
473
638
1,125
1,604
2,539
2,113
1,884
734
413
643
469
629
1,104
1,577
2,532
2,101
1,861
731
412
628
462
620
1,082
1,553
2,511
2,077
1,830
727
411
615
457
610
1,053
1,529
2,486
2,049
1,791
725
409
607
452
596
1,038
1,515
2,459
2,055
1,777
720
403
611
449
596
1,024
1,505
2,446
2,048
1,778
718
400
607
446
590
1,007
1,496
2,419
2,038
1,774
716
397
614
443
584
977
1,479
2,376
2,036
1,747
713
391
615
444
586
958
1,472
2,365
2,039
1,760
714
388
Nondurable goods ..........................................................................
Production workers..................................................................
8,095
5,762
8,088
5,750
8,113
5,773
8,083
5,747
8,083
5,742
8,038
5,697
8,002
5,656
7,952
5,603
7,895
5,548
7,879
5,531
7,829
5,494
7,794
5,467
7,779
5,461
Food and kindred products..............................................................
Tobacco manufactures ..................................................................
Textile mill products........................................................................
Apparel and other textile products ..................................................
Paper and allied products ..............................................................
Printing and publishing....................................................................
Chemicals and allied products ........................................................
Petroleum and coal products ..........................................................
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products ....................................
Leather and leather products ..........................................................
1,689
70
828
1,250
690
1,262
1,109
217
745
235
1,673
71
830
1,251
690
1,263
1,111
217
747
235
1,678
70
835
1,255
691
1,268
1,110
217
750
239
1,659
70
829
1,253
691
1,271
1,107
216
752
235
1,658
69
827
1,253
695
1,274
1,110
216
746
235
1,662
69
814
1,243
685
1,276
1,107
215
734
233
1,664
69
804
1,235
681
1,276
1,103
215
725
230
1,661
68
794
1,222
677
1,276
1,100
214
716
224
1,657
69
780
1,201
674
1,275
1,095
210
712
222
1,663
68
777
1,201
670
1,276
1,093
208
708
215
1,658
68
760
1,186
668
1,278
1,088
207
703
213
1,643
67
774
1,166
664
1,275
1,082
205
704
214
1,653
67
755
1,162
662
1,273
1,078
208
706
215
TRANSPORTATION AND PUBLIC UTILITIES ......................................
5,158
5,162
5,168
5,168
5,181
5,162
5,150
5,128
5,125
5,115
5,100
5,089
5,064
WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE......................................................
20,543
20,590
20,620
20,650
20,660
20,654
20,623
20,524
20,630
20,670
20,655
20,583
20,629
WHOLESALE TRADE ..........................................................................
5,361
5,366
5,375
5,387
5,383
5,380
5,375
5,357
5,346
5,343
5,336
5,320
5,325
15,182
15,224
15,245
15,263
15,277
15,274
15,248
15,167
15,284
15,327
15,319
15,263
15,304
5,295
5,302
5,311
5,319
5,328
5,325
5,324
5,331
5,326
5,326
5,336
5,328
5,327
RETAIL TRADE
FINANCE, INSURANCE, AND REAL ESTATE ......................................
SERVICES ..........................................................................................
18,517
18,556
18,615
18,654
18,707
18,773
18,815
18,834
18,831
18,867
18,904
18,924
18,920
GOVERNMENT ....................................................................................
Federal..........................................................................................
State and local ..............................................................................
16,078
2,776
13,302
16,020
2,777
13,243
15,964
2,775
13,189
15,894
2,769
13,125
15,904
2,764
13,140
15,917
2,757
13,160
15,908
2,749
13,159
15,917
2,756
13,161
15,864
2,741
13,123
15,850
2,737
13,113
15,859
2,736
13,123
15,843
2,730
13,113
15,852
2,728
13,124
N ote: In accordance with usual practice, BLS has revised establishment survey data to reflect a new
benchmark and updated seasonal adjustment factors. Because of these revisions, establishment data in
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
this table may differ from data published earlier. See technical note, page 70.
73
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW July 1982 • Current Labor Statistics: Establishment Data
12.
Hours and earnings, by industry division, selected years, 1950-81
[Gross averages, production or nonsupervisory workers on nonagricultural payrolls]
Year
Average
weekly
earnings
Average
weekly
hours
Average
hourly
earnings
Average
weekly
earnings
Total private
Average
hourly
earnings
Average
weekly
earnings
Mining
Average
weekly
hours
Average
hourly
earnings
Average
weekly
earnings
Construction
Average
weekly
hours
Average
hourly
earnings
Manufacturin9
1950
1955
I960’
1964
1965
$53.13
67.72
80.67
91.33
95.45
39.8
39.6
38.6
38.7
38.8
$1,335
1.71
2.09
2.36
2.46
$67.16
89.54
105.04
117.74
123.52
37.9
40.7
40.4
41.9
42.3
$1,772
2.20
2.60
2.81
2.92
$69.68
90.90
112.67
132.06
138.38
37.4
37.1
36.7
37.2
37.4
$1,863
2.45
3.07
3.55
3.70
$58.32
75.30
89.72
102.97
107.53
40.5
40.7
39.7
40.7
41.2
$1,440
1.85
2.26
2.53
2.61
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970 .
98.82
101.84
107.73
114.61
119.83
38.6
38.0
37.8
37.7
37.1
2.56
2.68
2.85
3.04
3.23
130.24
135.89
142.71
154.80
164.40
42.7
42.6
42.6
43.0
42.7
3.05
3.19
3.35
3.60
3.85
146.26
154.95
164.49
181.54
195.45
37.6
37.7
37.3
37.9
37.3
3.89
4.11
4.41
4.79
5.24
112.19
114.49
122.51
129.51
133.33
41.4
40.6
40.7
40.6
39.8
2.71
2.82
3.01
3.19
3.35
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
.
.
.
.
.
127.31
136.90
145.39
154.76
163.53
36.9
37.0
36.9
36.5
36.1
3.45
3.70
3.94
4.24
4.53
172.14
189.14
201.40
219.14
249.31
42.4
42.6
42.4
41.9
41.9
4.06
4.44
4.75
5.23
5.95
211.67
221.19
235.89
249.25
266.08
37.2
36.5
36.8
36.6
36.4
5.69
6.06
6.41
6.81
7.31
142.44
154.71
166.46
176.80
190.79
39.9
40.5
40.7
40.0
39.5
3.57
3.82
4.09
4.42
4.83
1976 .
1977 .
1978 .
1979 .
1980'
175.45
189.00
203.70
219.91
235.10
36.1
36.0
35.8
35.7
35.3
4.86
5.25
5.69
6.16
6.66
273.90
301.20
332.88
365.07
397.06
42.4
43.4
43.4
43.0
43.3
6.46
6.94
7.67
8.49
9.17
283.73
295.65
318.69
342.99
367.78
36.8
36.5
36.8
37.0
37.0
7.71
8.10
8.66
9.27
9.94
209.32
228.90
249.27
269.34
288.62
40.1
40.3
40.4
40.2
39.7
5.22
5.68
6.17
6.70
7.27
1981r
255.20
35.2
7.25
439.19
10.05
398.52
36.9
10.80
318.00
39.8
7.99
Transportation and public
utilities
1950
1955
1960
1964
1965
$118.78
125.14
41.1
41.3
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
128.13
130.82
138.85
147.74
155.93
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
Finance, insurance, and
real estate
Wholesale and retail trade
Services
40.5
39.4
38.6
37.9
37.7
$1,100
$2.89
3.03
$44.55
55.16
66.01
74.66
76.91
1.40
1.71
1.97
2.04
$50.52
63.92
75.14
85.79
88.91
37.7
37.6
37.2
37.3
37.2
$1,340
1.70
2.02
2.30
2.39
$70.03
73.60
36.1
35.9
$1.94
2.05
41.2
40.5
40.6
40.7
40.5
3.11
3.23
3.42
3.63
3.85
79.39
82.35
87.00
91.39
96.02
37.1
36.6
36.1
35.7
35.3
2.14
2.25
2.41
2.56
2.72
92.13
95.72
101.75
108.70
112.67
37.3
37.1
37.0
37.1
36.7
2.47
2.58
2.75
2.93
3.07
77.04
80.38
83.97
90.57
96.66
35.5
35.1
34.7
34.7
34.4
2.17
2.29
2.42
2.61
2.81
168.82
187.86
203.31
217.48
233.44
40.1
40.4
40.5
40.2
39.7
4.21
4.65
5.02
5.41
5.88
101.09
106.45
111.76
119.02
126.45
35.1
34.9
34.6
34.2
33.9
2.88
3.05
3.23
3.48
3.73
117.85
122.98
129.20
137.61
148.19
36.6
36.6
36.6
36.5
36.5
3.22
3.36
3.53
3.77
4.06
103.06
110.85
117.29
126.00
134.67
33.9
33.9
33.8
33.6
33.5
3.04
3.27
3.47
3.75
4.02
1976 .
1977 .
1978 .
1979 .
1980’
256.71
278.90
302.80
325.58
351.25
39.8
39.9
40.0
39.9
39.6
6.45
6.99
7.57
8.16
8.87
133.79
142.52
153.64
164.96
176.46
33.7
33.3
32.9
32.6
32.2
3.97
4.28
4.67
5.06
5.48
155.43
165.26
178.00
190.77
209.60
36.4
36.4
36.4
36.2
36.2
4.27
4.54
4.89
5.27
5.79
143.52
153.45
163.67
175.27
190.71
33.3
33.0
32.8
32.7
32.6
4.31
4.65
4.99
5.36
5.85
1981'
382.18
39.4
9.70
190.95
32.2
5.93
229.05
36.3
6.31
208.97
32.6
6.41
’ Data include Alaska and Hawaii beginning in 1959.
74
Average
weekly
hours
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
13.
Weekly hours, by industry division and major manufacturing group
[Gross averages, production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls]
1982
1981
Annual average
Industry division and group
1980
1981
May
June
July
Aug.
SepL
Oct
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.p
May”
TOTAL PRIVATE..........................................
35.3
35.2
35.2
35.4
35.6
35.6
35.1
35.2
35.1
35.2
33.9
34.8
34.7
34.6
34.9
MINING..............................................................
43.3
43.7
43.9
42.3
43.6
44.2
43.9
44.5
44.4
44.8
42.9
43.6
43.8
42.7
42.5
37.5
CONSTRUCTION................................................
37.0
36.9
37.0
37.2
37.8
37.4
35.8
37.6
37.1
37.1
33.3
35.9
37.0
36.5
MANUFACTURING ............................................
Overtime hours......................................
39.7
2.8
39.8
2.8
40.1
2.9
40.2
3.0
39.6
2.8
39.9
3.0
39.5
2.9
39.7
2.8
39.7
2.6
39.9
2.6
37.1
2.2
39.2
2.3
39.1
2.3
38.7
2.1
39.0
2.3
Durable goods ..............................................
Overtime hours......................................
40.1
2.8
40.2
2.8
40.6
3.0
40.6
3.0
40.0
2.8
40.2
2.9
39.8
2.8
40.1
2.7
40.1
2.5
40.4
2.6
37.7
2.1
39.7
2.2
39.6
2.2
39.2
2.0
39.5
2.2
Lumber and wood products ..........................
Furniture and fixtures ....................................
Stone, clay, and glass products......................
Primary metal industries................................
Fabricated metal products ............................
38.5
38.1
40.8
40.1
40.4
38.7
384
40.6
40.5
40.3
39.6
38.5
41.1
40.9
40.7
39.5
38.9
41.2
40.9
40.8
38.7
37.8
40.8
40.3
39.9
39.0
38.6
41.0
40.3
40.3
37.9
37.7
40.6
40.8
39.7
38.2
38.6
40.5
39.7
40.2
37.7
38.1
40.5
39.7
40.1
38.1
38.9
40.1
39.6
40.5
33.7
32.5
37.4
38.4
37.8
37.5
37.4
39.2
39.6
39.4
37.6
37.6
39.8
39.0
39.6
37.3
37.1
40.0
38.8
39.0
37.9
37.1
40.4
38.6
39.3
Machinery except electrical............................
Electric and electronic equipment ..................
Transportation equipment..............................
Instruments and related products ..................
Miscellaneous manufacturing ........................
41.0
39.8
40.6
40.5
38.7
40.9
39.9
40.9
40.4
38.8
41.2
40.1
41.6
40.3
38.9
41.1
40.2
41.4
40.4
39.0
40.5
39.7
40.8
39.9
38.5
40.7
40.0
40.6
40.4
38.9
40.4
39.7
39.9
40.4
38.7
40.7
39.9
41.0
40.4
39.3
41.0
39.8
40.8
40.8
39.5
41.6
40.4
41.4
40.7
39.1
39.2
38.1
38.4
38.6
36.6
40.7
39.8
40.4
40.0
38.4
40.4
39.5
40.4
40.1
38.7
39.8
39.0
40.5
39.5
38.1
39.9
39.3
41.3
40.3
38.1
Nondurable goods
Overtime hours......................................
39.0
2.8
39.1
2.8
39.4
2.9
39.5
2.9
39.1
2.8
39.4
3.0
39.1
3.1
39.1
2.9
39.1
2.8
39.2
2.7
36.2
2.4
38.6
2.5
38.3
2.4
38.0
2.3
38.3
2.4
Food and kindred products............................
Tobacco manufactures..................................
Textile mill products......................................
Apparel and other textile products..................
Paper and allied products..............................
39.7
38.1
40.1
35.4
42.2
39.7
38.8
39.6
35.7
42.5
39.7
38.7
40.2
36.0
42.5
39.7
38.5
40.4
36.3
42.7
39.6
38.6
39.6
36.0
42.4
39.9
40.7
39.9
36.3
42.4
39.8
40.2
38.9
35.2
43.2
39.5
39.4
39.4
35.8
42.4
39.8
38.8
39.2
35.8
42.3
40.4
38.1
38.6
35.5
42.7
38.7
36.1
31.2
30.0
41.3
39.7
38.3
38.1
35.2
42.0
39.0
37.3
37.7
35.1
41.7
38.8
36.5
37.3
34.4
41.8
39.3
36.8
37.8
34.9
41.5
Printing and publishing ..................................
Ghemicals and allied products........................
Petroleum and coal products ........................
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products ..
Leather and leather products ........................
37.1
41.5
41.8
40.0
36.7
37.3
41.6
43.2
40.3
36.8
37.3
41.5
43.6
40.8
37.4
37.2
41.6
43.5
40.9
38.1
37.2
41.5
43.7
39.9
36.5
37.5
41.4
43.0
40.4
36.9
37.4
42.2
44.4
39.7
36.0
37.2
41.5
43.1
40.2
36.7
37.3
41.6
43.1
39.9
36.6
37.9
41.8
42.6
40.1
36.4
36.4
40.8
43.2
37.8
33.3
37.1
41.1
42.2
39.9
35.3
37.1
40.7
42.4
39.7
35.6
36.8
40.7
42.6
39.5
35.1
36.7
41.0
42.5
39.9
3Ò.Ò
39.6
39.4
39.3
39.7
39.7
39.5
39.2
39.1
39.2
39.3
38.5
39.2
39.0
39.0
39.1
31.6
31.6
31.7
31.9
TRANSPORTATION AND PUBUC UTILITIES
WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE
32.2
32.2
32.0
32.4
32.8
32.8
32.2
32.0
31.9
32.3
31.1
WHOLESALE TRADE
38.5
38.6
38.5
38.6
38.8
38.7
38.5
38.6
38.6
38.7
37.8
38.2
38.3
38.2
38.5
29.8
29.8
30.3
29.0
29.4
29.4
29.6
29.9
RETAIL TRADE..................................................
30.2
30.1
29.9
30.3
30.9
30.9
FINANCE, INSURANCE, AND REAL ESTATE
36.2
36.3
36.1
36.1
36.3
36.4
36.0
36.2
36.2
36.2
36.2
36.2
36.3
36.2
36.5
33.1
32.9
32.4
32.5
32.5
32.6
32.3
32.5
32.5
32.5
32.5
SERVICES..........................................................
32.6
32.6
32.5
32.7
Note In accordance with usual practice, BLS has revised establishment survey data to reflect a new
benchmark and updated seasonal adjustment factors. Because of these revisions, establishment data in
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
30.2
this table may differ from data published earlier. See-technical note, page 70.
75
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW July 1982 • Current Labor Statistics: Establishment Data
14.
Weekly hours, by industry division and major manufacturing group, seasonally adjusted
[Gross averages, production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls]
1981
Industry division and group
May
TOTAL PRIVATE
June
July
Aug.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr. P
MayP
35.4
35.2
35.3
35.2
35.0
35.1
35.1
35.0
34.4
35.0
34.9
34.9
35.0
40.2
3.1
40.1
3.0
400
3.0
39.9
3.0
39.4
2.7
39.5
2.7
39.3
2.5
39.1
2.4
37.6
2.3
39.4
2.4
39.0
2.3
39.0
2.4
39.1
2.4
40.7
3.1
40.5
3.0
40.5
3.0
40.4
3.0
39.7
2.7
40.0
2.6
39.7
2.4
39.5
2.3
38.2
2.2
39.8
2.2
39.5
2.2
39.5
2.2
39.6
2.3
Lumber and wood products . . . .
Furniture and fixtures ................
Stone, clay, and glass products ..............
Primary metal industries................
Fabricated metal products ....................
39.6
38.8
40.9
41.1
40.8
38.9
38.8
40.7
40.9
40.6
38.7
38.6
40.8
40.7
40.5
38.4
38.4
40.7
40.8
40.4
37.6
37.4
40.3
40.6
39.6
37.8
38.0
40.1
40.0
40.0
37.7
37.6
40.1
396
39.7
37.7
37.9
39.7
39.2
39.5
35.0
33.6
386
38.3
38.1
37.9
37 7
40.1
394
39.7
37.6
37 3
40 0
38 8
39.5
37.6
37 4
40 1
38 6
39.4
37.9
39.4
Machinery, except electrical ....................
Electric and electronic equipment ..........
Transportation equipment........................
Instruments and related products ..........
Miscellaneous manufacturing ............
41.4
40.3
41.6
40.4
39.1
41.1
40.2
41.4
40.4
39.0
41.2
40.4
41.2
40.5
39.0
41.1
40.3
41.2
40.6
38.9
40.3
39.7
40.1
40.4
38.4
40.8
39.8
40.6
40.3
38.9
40.7
39.4
40.4
40.2
39.0
40.4
39.5
39.7
39.9
38.5
39.3
38.3
39.0
39.0
37.3
407
39.8
40 5
39 9
38.6
40 2
39 4
40 4
39 9
38.6
40 1
39 3
39 6
39 9
38.4
38.3
39.4
3.0
39.4
2.9
39.2
2.9
39.2
2.9
38.9
2.8
38.9
2.8
38.7
2.7
38.6
2.6
36.8
2.5
38.9
2.6
385
2.5
38 4
2.6
38 4
2.5
Food and kindred products . . . .
Textile mill products . . . .
Apparel and other textile products............
Paper and allied products . .
39.7
40.2
35.9
42.8
39.7
40.1
35.9
42.7
39.5
40.1
35.8
42.7
39.4
39.8
35.9
42.5
39.3
38.8
35.2
43.0
39.5
39.0
35.5
42.4
39.5
38.7
35.5
42.0
39.8
37.8
35.1
41.8
39.1
32.3
31.4
41.3
40.2
38.3
35.5
42.3
39 5
37 6
35 0
41.8
39 4
39 3
34 7
42.1
41.8
Printing and publishing ......................
Chemicals and allied products............
Petroleum and coal products ..
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products
Leather and leather products ..............
37.4
41.6
43.8
41.1
37.0
37.4
41.7
43.4
40.9
37.1
37.3
41.7
43.1
40.5
36.4
37.3
41.7
42.9
40.5
36.7
37.1
42.2
43.1
39.7
36.2
37.1
41.5
42.2
39.9
36.7
37.1
41.2
42.5
39.6
36.5
37.1
41.3
42.7
39.4
36.1
36.9
41.0
44.3
37.9
34.1
37 4
41 2
43.5
40 0
35.6
37 1
40 7
43 5
39 6
35.8
32.2
32.1
35.2
32.2
32.1
32.0
32.1
32.0
31.7
32.0
31.9
31.8
32.1
38.6
38.5
38.6
38.6
38.5
38.4
38.5
38.4
38.1
38.5
38.4
38.3
38.6
MANUFACTURING
Overtime hours............
Durable goods ........
Overtime hours................
Nondurable goods
Overtime hours....................
WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE
WHOLESALE TRADE
.
42,6
35.5
35.1
RETAIL TRADE....................
30.2
30.0
30.1
30.1
30.1
29.9
30.0
29.9
29.7
29.9
29.8
29.8
30.1
SERVICES
32.7
32.5
32.6
32.5
32.5
32.6
32.6
32.6
32.5
32.6
32.6
32.7
32.7
Note: The industry divisions of mining: construction: tobacco manufactures (a major
manufacturing group, nondurable goods): transportation and public utilities; and finance, insurance,
and real estate are no longer shown. This is because the seasonal component in these is small
relative to the trend-cycle, or irregular components, or both, and consequently cannot be precisely
separated.
76
1982
Sept.
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
N ote:
In accordance with usual pract ce, BLS has revised es ablishment survey data to reflect a
new benchmark and updated seasonal ad] ustment factors. Becaus e of these revisions, e tabllshment
data in this table may differ from data publis ed earlier. See technica note, page 70.
15.
Hourly earnings, by industry division and major manufacturing group
[Gross averages, production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls]
Annual average
Industry division and group
1981
1982
1980
1981
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.p
May »
$7.55
$7.57
$7.61
TOTAL PRIVATE..........................................
$6.66
$7.25
$7.17
$7.20
$7.24
$7.30
$7.40
$7.42
$7.47
$7.45
$7.55
$7.54
MINING..............................................................
9.17
10.05
9.68
9.93
10.09
10.12
10.27
10.25
10.39
10.41
10.65
10.62
10.62
10.65
10.71
CONSTRUCTION................................................
9.94
10.80
10.57
10.64
10.79
10.92
11.07
11.65
11.18
11.26
11.59
11.32
11.33
11.28
11.38
MANUFACTURING ............................................
7.27
7.99
7.92
7.97
8.02
8.03
8.16
8.16
8.20
8.27
8.42
8.34
8.37
8.41
8.45
Durable goods............................................
Lumber and wood products ....................
Furniture and fixtures..............................
Stone, clay, and glass products ..............
Primary metal industries..........................
Fabricated metal products ......................
7.75
6.55
5.49
7.50
9.77
7.45
8.53
7.00
5.91
8.27
10.81
8.20
8.47
6.92
5.84
8.20
10.68
8.16
8.54
7.09
5.90
8.31
10.75
8.23
8.57
7.15
5.92
8.40
10.78
8.21
8.59
7.13
5.99
8.41
10.99
8.26
8.70
7.16
6.01
8.53
11.22
8.33
8.73
7.10
6.06
8.50
10.97
8.39
8.77
7.16
6.05
8.54
11.10
8.42
8.83
7.16
6.12
8.56
11.08
8.53
8.92
7.38
6.28
8.70
11.23
8.55
8.89
7.27
6.19
8.62
11.20
8.57
8.91
7.28
6.21
8.65
11.15
8.64
8.93
7.25
6.22
8.72
11.23
8.69
9.01
7.36
6.25
8.77
11.28
8.76
Machinery, except electrical....................
Electric and electronic equipment............
Transportation equipment........................
Instruments and related products ............
Miscellaneous manufacturing ..................
8.00
6.94
9.35
6.80
5.46
8.81
7.62
10.39
7.43
5.96
8.73
7.51
10.33
7.30
5.92
8.79
7.56
10.45
7.33
5.92
8.83
7.65
10.44
7.43
5.97
8.84
7.73
10.37
7.55
5.96
8.96
7.75
10.49
7.59
6.05
9.04
7.80
10.74
7.60
6.05
9.08
7.83
10.74
7.68
6.11
9.18
7.90
10.76
7.81
6.19
9.19
7.98
10.79
7.93
6.27
9.20
7.96
10.82
7.94
6.29
9.18
8.01
10.89
8.00
6.32
9.19
8.03
10.88
8.08
6.36
9.24
8.08
11.02
8.17
6.40
Nondurable goods
Food and kindred products......................
Tobacco manufactures............................
Textile mill products................................
Apparel and other textile products ..........
Paper and allied products........................
6.55
6.85
7.74
5.07
4.56
7.84
7.18
7.43
8.88
5.52
4.96
8.60
7.10
7.41
9.06
5.40
4.96
8.42
7.13
7.41
9.35
5.41
4.97
8.54
7.22
7.45
9.46
5.50
4.92
8.73
7.23
7.48
8.70
5.65
4.96
8.67
7.36
7.56
8.76
5.69
5.04
8.95
7.33
7.51
8.67
5.72
5.05
8.82
7.38
7.61
9.04
5.73
5.04
8.89
7.44
7.67
8.96
5.72
5.04
8.96
7.67
7.82
9.21
5.76
5.18
9.06
7.54
7.74
9.56
5.76
5.13
8.99
7.57
7.79
9.72
5.76
5.15
9.03
7.65
7.90
10.00
5.79
5.18
9.12
7.64
7.88
9.87
5.77
5.15
9.17
7.53
8.30
10.10
6.52
4.58
8.18
9.12
11.38
7.16
4.99
8.08
8.90
11.30
7.13
4.96
8.11
9.07
11.31
7.14
4.98
8.20
9.16
11.43
7.18
4.97
8.25
9.19
11.32
7.23
4.97
8.37
9.38
11.55
7.29
5.09
8.40
9.37
11.47
7.30
5.09
8.42
9.42
11.58
7.31
5.11
8.48
9.53
11.59
7.38
5.15
8.58
9.68
11.91
7.51
5.19
8.56
9.68
12.29
7.49
5.22
8.59
9.71
12.32
7.45
5.24
8.60
9.79
12.50
7.53
5.31
8.64
9.77
12.44
7.53
5.29
Printing and publishing............................
Chemicals and allied products ................
Petroleum and coal products ..................
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products
Leather and leather products..................
TRANSPORTATION AND PUBLIC UTILITIES
8.87
9.70
9.57
9.61
9.67
9.87
9.95
9.94
10.05
10.06
10.10
10.13
10.07
10.11
10.14
WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE ....................
5.48
5.93
5.89
5.88
5.91
5.94
6.04
6.01
6.04
6.02
6.17
6.16
6.16
6.18
6.19
WHOLESALE TRADE
6.96
7.57
7.49
7.49
7.58
7.65
7.70
7.73
7.79
7.81
7.94
7.94
7.93
7.96
8.01
RETAIL TRADE..................................................
4.88
5.25
5.22
5.22
5.24
5.25
5.37
5.29
5.32
5.31
5.43
5.42
5.43
5.44
5.46
FINANCE, INSURANCE, AND REAL ESTATE .
5.79
6.31
6.25
6.25
6.28
6.38
6.39
6.43
6.52
6.47
6.56
6.62
6.59
6.63
6.74
SERVICES..........................................................
5.85
6.41
6.34
6.33
6.34
6.41
6.52
6.58
6.67
6.66
6.79
6.79
6.77
6.81
6.84
N ote: In accordance with usual practice, BLS has revised establishment survey data to reflect a new
benchmark and updated seasonal adjustment factors. Because of these revisions, establishment data in
16.
this table may differ from data published earlier. See technical note, page 70.
Hourly Earnings Index for production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls, by industry division
[Seasonally adjusted data: 1977=100]
1981
1982
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr. »
May»
Apr. 1982
to
May 1982
May 1981
to
May 19821
137.6
138.4
139.1
140.5
141.4
142.0
143.0
143.5
144.9
145.0
145.4
146.2
147.4
.8
7.1
145.8
129.9
140.6
138.7
137.2
136.8
135.9
147.4
130.9
141.5
139.6
137.6
137.1
136.7
149.0
132.2
142.4
139.0
138.4
137.8
137.4
149.5
132.8
143.5
141.6
139.7
140.1
139.2
151.7
133.5
144.7
141.5
141.0
140.4
139.7
151.4
134.7
145.4
142.3
140.5
141.4
140.9
153.4
135.7
146.4
143.5
141.3
142.6
142.2
153.4
136.6
146.9
144.3
141.7
142.0
142.6
156.2
139.9
148.9
145.5
142.1
143.1
143.4
156.0
137.9
149.1
146.0
142.5
143.3
143.7
156.0
138.1
149.9
146.3
142.8
143.8
143.9
156.5
138.3
150.7
146.3
143.7
144.7
145.2
157.6
139.0
151.6
147.5
144.8
147.5
146.5
.7
.5
.6
.8
.8
2.0
.9
8.1
7.0
7.8
6.4
5.6
7.8
7.8
93.0
92.9
92.2
92.5
92.1
92.1
92.3
92.3
92.9
92.8
93.3
93.7
(3)
(3)
(3)
Industry
TOTAL PRIVATE (in current dollars)
Mining2 ............................................
Construction ...................................
Manufacturing .................................
Transportation and public utilities . . . .
Wholesale and retail trade ..............
Finance, insurance, and real estate ..
Services ..........................................
TOTAL PRIVATE (in constant dollars)
' Over-the-year percent change before seasonal adjustment.
2This series is not seasonally adjusted because the seasonal component is small relative to
the trend-cycle, irregular components, or both, and consequently cannot be separated with
sufficient precision.
3Not available.
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
In accordance with usual practice, BLS has revised establishment survey data to
reflect a new benchmark and updated seasonal adjustment factors. Because of these
revisions, establishment data in this table may differ from data published earlier. See technical
note, page 70.
N ote:
77
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW July 1982 • Current Labor Statistics: Establishment Data
17.
Weekly earnings, by industry division and major manufacturing group
[Gross averages, production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls]
1982
1981
Annual average
Industry division and group
Aug.
Sept
Oct
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.p
Mayp
1980
1981
May
June
July
TOTAL PRIVATE:
Current dollars..........................................
Constant (1977) dollars..............................
$235.10
172.74
$255.20
170.13
$252.38
170.18
$254.88
170.49
$257.74
170.35
$259.88
170.64
$259.74
168.88
$261.18
169.49
$262.20
169.71
$262.24
169.30
$255.95
164.70
$262.39
168.31
$261 99
168.37
$261.92
167.58
$265.59
MINING ........................................................
397.06
439.19
424.95
420.04
439.92
447.30
450.85
456.13
461.32
466.37
456.89
463.03
465.16
454.76
$455.18
CONSTRUCTION
367.78
398.52
391.09
395.81
407.86
408.41
396.31
419.62
414.78
417.75
385.95
406.39
419.21
411.72
426.75
MANUFACTURING
Current dollars........................................
Constant (1977) dollars ..........................
288.62
212.06
318.00
212.00
317.59
214.15
320.39
214.31
317.59
209.91
320.40
210.37
322.32
209.57
323.95
210.22
325.54
210.71
329.97
213.02
312.38
201.02
326.93
209.70
327.27
210.33
325.47
208.23
329.55
(’ )
Durable goods..............................................
Lumber and wood products........................
Furniture and fixtures ................................
Stone, clay, and glass products..................
Primary metal industries ............................
Fabricated metal products..........................
310.78
252.18
209.17
306.00
391.78
300.98
342.91
270.90
226.94
335.76
437.81
330.46
343.88
274.03
224.84
337.02
436.81
332.11
346.72
280.06
229.51
342.37
439.68
335.78
342.80
276.71
223.78
342.72
434.43
327.58
345.32
278.07
231.21
344.81
442.90
332.88
346.26
271.36
226.58
346.32
457.78
330.70
350.07
271.22
233.92
344.25
435.51
337.28
351.68
269.93
230.51
345.87
440.67
337.64
356.73
272.80
238.07
343.26
438.77
345.47
336.28
248.71
204.10
325.38
431.23
323.19
352.93
272.63
231.51
337.90
443.52
337.66
352.84
273.73
233.50
344.27
434.85
342.14
350.06
270.43
230.76
348.80
435.72
338.91
$355.90
278.94
231.88
354.31
435.41
344.27
Machinery except electrical........................
Electric and electronic equipment................
Transportation equipment ..........................
Instruments and related products................
Miscellaneous manufacturing......................
328.00
276.21
379.61
275.40
211.30
360.33
304.04
424.95
300.17
231.25
359.68
301.15
429.73
294.19
230.29
361.27
303.91
432.63
296.13
230.88
357.62
303.71
425.95
296.46
229.85
359.79
309.20
421.02
305.02
231.84
361.98
307.68
418.55
306.64
234.14
367.93
311.22
440.34
307.04
237.77
372.28
311.63
438.19
313.34
241.35
381.89
319.16
445.46
317.87
242.03
360.25
304.04
414.34
306.10
229.48
374.44
316.81
437.13
317.60
241.54
370.87
316.40
439.96
320.80
244.58
365.76
313.17
440.64
319.16
242.32
368.68
317.54
455.13
329.25
243.84
Nondurable goods
Food and kindred products ........................
Tobacco manufactures ..............................
Textile mill products ..................................
Apparel and other textile products..............
Paper and allied products ..........................
255.45
271.95
294.89
203.31
161.42
330.85
280.74
294.97
344.54
218.59
177.07
365.50
279.74
294.18
350.62
217.08
178.56
357.85
281.64
294.18
359.98
218.56
180.41
364.66
282.30
295.02
365.16
217.80
177.12
370.15
284.86
298.45
354.09
225.44
180.05
367.61
287.78
300.89
352.15
221.34
177.41
386.64
286.60
296.65
341.60
225.37
180.79
373.97
288.56
302.88
350.75
224.62
180.43
376.05
291.65
309.87
341.38
220.79
178.92
382.59
277.65
302.63
332.48
179.71
155.40
374.18
291.04
307.28
366.15
219.46
180.58
377.58
289.93
303.81
362.56
217.15
180.77
376.55
290.70
306.52
365.00
215.97
178.19
381.22
292.61
309.68
363.22
218.11
179.74
380.56
Printing and publishing................................
Chemicals and allied products....................
Petroleum and coal products......................
Rubber and miscellaneous
plastics products....................................
Leather and leather products......................
279.36
344,45
422.18
305.11
379.39
491.62
301.38
373.09
492.68
301.69
377.31
491.99
305.04
380.14
499.49
309.38
380.47
486.76
313.04
395.84
512.82
312.48
388 86
494.36
314.07
391.87
499.10
321.39
398.35
493.73
312.31
394.94
514.51
317.58
397.85
518.64
318.69
395.20
522.37
316.48
398.45
532.50
317.09
400.57
528.70
260.80
168.09
288.55
183.63
290.90
185.50
292.03
189.74
286.48
181.41
292.09
183.39
289.41
183.24
293.46
186.80
291.67
187.03
295.94
187.46
283.88
172.83
298.85
184.27
295.77
186.54
297.44
186.38
300.45
187.80
351.25
382.18
376.10
381.52
383.90
389.87
390.04
388.65
393.96
395.36
388.85
397.10
392.73
394.29
396.47
TRANSPORTATION AND PUBLIC UTILITIES
( 1)
WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE
176.46
190.95
188.48
190.51
193.85
194.83
194.49
192.32
192.68
194.45
191.89
194.66
194.66
195.91
197.46
WHOLESALE TRADE ......................................
267.96
292.20
288.37
289.11
294.10
296.06
296.45
298.38
300.69
302.25
300.13
303.31
303.72
304.07
308.39
RETAIL TRADE................................................
147.38
158.03
156.08
158.17
161.92
162.23
162.17
157.64
158.54
160.89
157.47
159.35
159.64
161.02
163.25
FINANCE, INSURANCE, AND REAL ESTATE
209.60
229.05
225.63
225.63
227.96
232.23
230.04
232.77
236.02
234.21
237.47
239.64
239.22
240.01
246.01
190.71
208.97
206.05
206.99
209.85
210.89
211.25
213.85
216.78
217.12
219.32
220.68
220.03
221.33
222.30
SERVICES........................................................
.
1Not available.
N ote: In accordance with usual practice, BLS has revised establishment survey data to reflect a new
78
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
benchmark and updated seasonal adjustment factors. Because of these revisions, establishment
data In this table may differ from data published earlier. See technical note, page 70.
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE DATA
N a t io n a l u n e m p l o y m e n t in s u r a n c e
data
ployed. Persons not covered by unemployment insurance (about 10
percent of the labor force) and those who have exhausted or not yet
earned benefit rights are excluded from the scope of the survey. In i
tial claims are notices filed by persons in unemployment insurance
programs to indicate they are out of work and wish to begin receiv
ing compensation. A claimant who continued to be unemployed a
full week is then counted in the insured unemployment figure. The
rate of insured unemployment expresses the number of insured unem
ployed as a percent of the average insured employment in a
12-month period.
are c o m p ile d
m o n th ly b y th e E m p lo y m e n t an d T rain in g A d m in istra tio n o f
th e U .S . D e p a r tm en t o f L ab or from m o n th ly rep orts o f u n em
p lo y m e n t in su ra n ce a c tiv ity p repared b y S ta te agen cies. R a il
ro a d u n em p lo y m e n t in su ra n ce d ata are p repared b y th e U .S .
R a ilro a d R etirem en t B oard.
Definitions
An application for benefits is filed by a railroad worker at the be
ginning of his first period of unemployment in a benefit year; no ap
plication is required for subsequent periods in the same year. N um
ber of payments are payments made in 14-day registration periods.
The average amount of benefit payment is an average for all com
pensable periods, not adjusted for recovery of overpayments or set
tlement of underpayments. However, total benefits paid have been
adjusted.
Data for all programs represent an unduplicated count of insured
unemployment under State programs, Unemployment Compensation
for Ex-Servicemen, and Unemployment Compensation for Federal
Employees, and the Railroad Insurance Act.
Under both State and Federal unemployment insurance programs
for civilian employees, insured workers must report the completion of
at least 1 week of unemployment before they are defined as unem-
18.
Unemployment insurance and employment service operations
[All items except average benefits amounts are in thousands]
1981
Item
All programs:
Insured unemployment ......................
State unemployment insurance
program:1
Initial claims2 ....................................
Insured unemployment (average
weekly volume)..............................
Rate of insured unemployment ..........
Weeks of unemployment
compensated ................................
Average weekly benefit amount
for total unemployment ..................
Total benefits paid ............................
Unemployment compensation for exservicemen: 3
Initial claims1 ....................................
Insured unemployment (average
weekly volume)..............................
Weeks of unemployment
compensated ................................
Total benefits paid ............................
Unemployment compensation for
Federal civilian employees:4
Initial claim s......................................
Insured unemployment (average
weekly volume)..............................
Weeks of unemployment
compensated ................................
Total benefits paid ............................
Railroad unemployment insurance:
Applications ......................................
Insured unemployment (average
weekly volume)..............................
Number of payments ........................
Average amount of benefit
payment........................................
Total benefits paid ............................
Employment service:5
New applications and renewals ..........
Nonfarm placements..........................
Apr.
May
3,453
June
3,111
2,949
3,012
Sept.
2,874
2,680
Oct.
Nov.
2,753
Dec.
3,228
Jan.
3,935
Feb.
4,681
Mar.
4,723
Apr.p
4,892
4,760
1,647
1,417
1,741
2,114
1,610
1,681
1,996
2,286
3,272
3,328
2,272
2,418
2,410
2,988
3.4
2,691
3.1
2,596
3.0
2,743
3.1
2,656
3.0
2,488
2.9
2,592
3.0
3,061
3.5
3,778
4.3
4,470
5.1
4,376
5.0
4,282
4.9
4,067
4.6
11,871
9,790
9,928
10,486
9,594
9,565
9,424
10,052
14,592
15,962
15,631
18,144
16,312
$105.96
$105.49
$99.02
$103.47
$105.94
$107.39
$1,226,815 $1,006,341 $1,012,764 $1,061,899 $1,004,864 $1,001,020
$108.92
$110.52
$997,757 $1,080,810
$117.10
$112.83
$114.83
$116.95
$117.77
$1,592,546 $1,764,206 $1,781,830 $2,072,642 $1,867,457
16
15
19
22
19
15
11
9
11
8
8
10
9
46
43
42
44
44
34
26
22
19
16
13
11
10
214
$23,048
183
$19,965
192
$21,145
203
$22,785
190
$21,425
153
$17,144
116
$12,952
91
$10,043
93
$10,155
65
$7,098
49
$5,311
48
$5,141
37
$4,085
12
11
13
15
17
18
20
16
17
17
12
13
14
31
27
25
25
25
29
32
36
39
40
40
38
33
135
$13,701
107
$11,023
105
$10,705
105
$10,805
102
$9,543
100
$10,495
112
$11,719
127
$13,491
174
$18,891
162
$18,040
154
$17,517
172
$19,677
148
$16,916
6
6
26
41
13
15
21
13
19
22
11
9
5
54
117
75
153
67
140
65
154
57
130
$212.33
$25,292
$213.39
$30,544
$214.07
$28,011
$215.71
$33,853
$209.48
$26,262
41
94
35
79
30
86
28
32
29
63
34
74
40
86
44
83
$201.12
$19,239
$199.43
$15,428
$201.06
$16,206
$199.63
$11,541
$202.53
$7,071
$207.98
15,046
$197.26
15,994
$207.08
$16,377
12,868
2,446
' Initial claims and State insured unemployment Include data under the program for Puerto Rican
sugarcane workers.
2 Includes interstate claims for the Virgin Islands. Excludes transition claims under State programs.
3 Excludes data on claims and payments made jointly with other programs.
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
1982
Aug.
July
16,502
3,509
r 4,081
r 731
7,439
1,232
4Excludes data on claims and payments made jointly with State programs.
5 Cumulative total for fiscal year (October 1-September 30). Data computed quarterly.
Note: Data for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands included. Dashes indicate data not available.
r=revised.
79
PRICE DATA
P r i c e d a t a are g a th ered b y th e B ureau o f L ab or S ta tistics
fro m retail a n d p rim ary m ark ets in th e U n ite d S tates. P rice
in d ex e s are g iv en in relation to a b a se p eriod (1 9 6 7 =
100,
u n less o th e r w ise n o ted ).
Definitions
The Consumer Price Index is a monthly statistical measure of the
average change in prices in a fixed market basket of goods and ser
vices. Effective with the January 1978 index, the Bureau of Labor Sta
tistics began publishing CPI’s for two groups of the population. One
index, a new CPI for All Urban Consumers, covers 80 percent of the
total noninstitutional population; and the other index, a revised CPI
for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, covers about half the
new index population. The All Urban Consumers index includes, in
addition to wage earners and clerical workers, professional, manageri
al, and technical workers, the self-employed, short-term workers, the
unemployed, retirees, and others not in the labor force.
The CPI is based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, fuel, drugs,
transportation fares, doctor’s and dentist’s fees, and other goods and
services that people buy for day-to-day living. The quantity and quali
ty of these items is kept essentially unchanged between major revi
sions so that only price changes will be measured. Prices are collected
from over 18,000 tenants, 24,000 retail establishments, and 18,000
housing units for property taxes in 85 urban areas across the country.
All taxes directly associated with the purchase and use of items are
included in the index. Because the CPI’s are based on the expendi
tures of two population groups in 1972-73, they may not accurately
reflect the experience of individual families and single persons with
different buying habits.
Though the CPI is often called the “Cost-of-Living Index,” it meas
ures only price change, which is just one of several important factors
affecting living costs. Area indexes do not measure differences in the
level of prices among cities. They only measure the average change in
prices for each area since the base period.
Producer Price Indexes measure average changes in prices received
in primary markets of the United States by producers of commodities
in all stages of processing. The sample used for calculating these in
dexes contains about 2,800 commodities and about 10,000 quotations
per month selected to represent the movement of prices of all com
modities produced in the manufacturing, agriculture, forestry, fishing,
mining, gas and electricity, and public utilities sectors. The universe
includes all commodities produced or imported for sale in commercial
transactions in primary markets in the United States.
Producer Price Indexes can be organized by stage of processing or
by commodity. The stage of processing structure organizes products
by degree of fabrication (that is, finished goods, intermediate or
semifinished goods, and crude materials). The commodity structure
organizes products by similarity of end-use or material composition.
To the extent possible, prices used in calculating Producer Price In
dexes apply to the first significant commercial transaction in the Unit
ed States, from the production or central marketing point. Price data
are generally collected monthly, primarily by mail questionnaire.
Digitized80
for FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Most prices are obtained directly from producing companies on a vol
untary and confidential basis. Prices generally are reported for the
Tuesday of the week containing the 13th day of the month.
In calculating Producer Price Indexes, price changes for the vari
ous commodities are averaged together with implicit quantity weights
representing their importance in the total net selling value of all com
modities as of 1972. The detailed data are aggregated to obtain in
dexes for stage of processing groupings, commodity groupings, dura
bility of product groupings, and a number of special composite
groupings.
Price indexes for the output of selected SIC industries measure av
erage price changes in commodities produced by particular industries,
as defined in the S ta n d a rd In du strial Classification M a n u a l 1972
(Washington, U.S. Office of Management and Budget, 1972). These
indexes are derived from several price series, combined to match the
economic activity of the specified industry and weighted by the value
of shipments in the industry. They use data from comprehensive in
dustrial censuses conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census and the
U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Notes on the data
Beginning with the May 1978 issue of the Review, regional CPI’s
cross classified by population size, were introduced. These indexes will
enable users in local areas for which an index is not published to get a
better approximation of the CPI for their area by using the appropri
ate population size class measure for their region. The cross-classified
indexes will be published bimonthly. (See table 21.)
For further details about the new and the revised indexes and a
comparison of various aspects of these indexes with the old unrevised
CPI, see F acts A b o u t the R evised C onsum er Price Index, a pamphlet in
the Consumer Price Index Revision 1978 series. See also The
C on su m er Price In dex: Concepts a n d C ontent O ver the Years, Report
517, revised edition (Bureau of Labor Statistics, May 1978).
For interarea comparisons of living costs at three hypothetical stand
ards of living, see the family budget data published in the H an dbook
o f L a b o r Statistics, 1977, Bulletin 1966 (Bureau of Labor Statistics,
1977), tables 122-133. Additional data and analysis on price changes
are provided in the C P I D e ta iled R eport and P roducer Prices a n d Price
Indexes, both monthly publications of the Bureau.
As of January 1976, the Wholesale Price Index (as it was then
called) incorporated a revised weighting structure reflecting 1972 val
ues of shipments. From January 1967 through December 1975, 1963
values of shipments were used as weights.
For a discussion of the general method of computing consumer,
producer, and industry price indexes, see B L S H an dbook o f M ethods
f o r Surveys a n d Studies, Bulletin 1910 (Bureau of Labor Statistics,
1976), chapters 13-15. See also John F. Early, “Improving the meas
urement of producer price change,” M o n th ly L a b o r R eview, April
1978, pp. 7-15. For industry prices, see also Bennett R. Moss, “In
dustry and Sector Price Indexes,” M o n th ly L a b o r Review , August
1965, pp. 974-82.
19.
Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, annual averages and changes, 1967-81
[1967 = 100]
Food and
beverages
All Items
7.1
5.4
5.8
4.1
100.0
103.2
107.2
112.7
3.2
3.9
5.1
100.0
106.1
113.4
120.6
6.1
6.9
6.3
100.0
105.7
111.0
116.7
5.7
5.0
5.1
100.0
105.2
110.4
116.8
123.4
128.1
133.7
148.8
164.5
4.4
3.8
4.4
11.3
10.6
119.8
122.3
126.8
136.2
142.3
3.2
2.1
3.7
7.4
4.5
118.6
119.9
123.8
137.7
150.6
5.2
1.1
3.3
11.2
9.4
128.4
132.5
137.7
150.5
168.6
6.5
3.2
3.9
9.3
12.0
122.9
126.5
130.0
139.8
152.2
5.3
2.9
2.8
7.5
8.9
122.4
127.5
132.5
142.0
153.9
4.8
4.2
3.1
6.0
9.7
10.9
8.7
174.6
186.5
202.6
227.5
263.2
6.1
6.8
8.6
12.3
15.7
147.6
154.2
159.5
166.4
177.4
3.7
4.5
3.4
4.3
6.6
165.5
177.2
185.8
212.8
250.5
9.9
7.1
4.9
14.5
17.7
184.7
202.4
219.4
240.1
267.2
9.5
9.6
8.4
9.4
11.3
1.59.8
167.7
176.2
187.6
203.7
5.0
4.9
5.1
6.5
8.5
162.7
172.2
183.2
196.3
213.6
5.7
5.8
6.4
7.2
7.7
293.2
11.4
186.6
5.2
281.3
12.3
295.1
10.4
219.0
7.5
233.3
9.2
3.6
5.0
5.4
100.0
104.0
110.4
118.2
9.1
118.3
123.2
139.5
158.7
172.1
3.1
4.1
13.2
13.8
8.4
170.5
181.5
195.3
217.7
247.0
5.8
6.5
7.6
11.5
13.5
177.4
188.0
206.2
228.7
248.7
272.3
10.2
267.8
100.0
104.2
109.8
116.3
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
121.3
125.3
133.1
147.7
161.2
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
4.2
5.4
5.9
4.3
3.3
6.2
11.0
Percent
change
Percent
change
Percent
change
Percent
change
100.0
105.4
111.5
116.1
100.0
103.6
108.8
114.7
1967
1968
1969
1970
Other goods
and services
Transportation
Percent
change
Percent
change
Percent
change
Percent
change
Apparel and
upkeep
Housing
4.0
6.2
5.2
4.9
5.8
3.9
7.2
8.4
8.8
20. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers and revised CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers,
U.S. city average— general summary and groups, subgroups, and selected items
[1967= 100 unless otherwise specified]
__________________________________ _ _ _______________ ___________ _ _ _ _ ______________________
Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (revised)
All Urban Consumers
General summary
1981
1»B2
1981
1982
Apr.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
Apr.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
All items......................................................................................
266.8
280.7
281.5
282.5
283.4
283.1
284.3
266.8
280.4
281.1
282.1
282.9
282.5
283.7
Other goods and services..............................................................
265.7
284.8
186.4
275.3
287.0
219.2
229.9
269.9
304.2
191.3
289.1
308.2
226.8
245.9
270.5
305.2
190.5
289.8
310.2
227.3
246.7
273.6
306.1
187.3
289.9
313.4
229.2
248.4
275.8
307.3
188.0
288.0
316.2
231.2
250.3
275.6
306.7
191.1
285.1
318.8
232.8
252.2
276.5
309.4
191.9
282.9
321.7
233.9
253.8
266.1
284.3
186.0
276.3
289.1
217.0
227.9
270.3
303.8
1905
290.8
307.1
224.3
242.5
270.8
304.7
189.4
291.5
309.1
224.4
243.5
273.9
305.6
186.5
291.6
312.0
226.1
245.0
276.0
306.7
187.3
289.6
314.9
228.1
247.1
275.9
306.2
190.5
286.6
317.4
229.5
249.3
276.8
309.2
191.2
284.3
320.2
230.5
250.9
Commodities less food and beverages ....................................
Nondurables less food and beverages..................................
Durables............................................................................
250.8
240.0
263.8
221.1
258.0
248,3
266.7
233.2
258.4
248.7
266.7
233.7
258.8
248.0
265.6
233.4
259.5
248.1
265.3
233.7
258.8
247.1
263.4
233.5
258.9
247.0
259.7
235.8
251.2
240.5
266.5
219.3
258.5
249.1
269.0
232.3
258.8
249.3
268.9
232.7
259.3
248.7
267.8
232.4
259.9
248.6
267.5
232.5
259.1
247.5
265.3
232.4
259.2
247.2
261.3
234.8
295.4
204.2
353.3
264.4
309.8
234.4
320.6
215.0
389.2
283.2
333.7
248.7
321.8
216.5
390.4
284.2
335.7
249.5
323.9
217.8
392.4
286.6
339.4
251.7
325.3
218.6
393.7
287.6
342.4
253.0
325.5
219.6
392.5
288.8
345.1
254.0
328.4
220.1
397.3
290.3
348.0
255.3
295.9
203.9
356.2
263.1
312.2
233.8
321.1
214.5
393.6
282.3
332.0
247.2
322.4
216.0
394.8
283.6
334.0
248.0
324.3
217.4
396.5
285.9
337.5
250.0
325.5
218.1
397.7
286.7
340.6
251.3
325.8
219.1
396.6
287.9
343.0
252.4
329.1
219.6
402.3
289.2
345.8
253.8
Services less energy........................................................
264.2
253.6
238.0
258.1
297.7
265.9
312.8
291.8
255.3
267.7
409.8
255.6
250.1
213.5
458.4
292.7
280.1
264.2
246.2
261.1
300.1
269.5
340.8
316.9
258.3
271.9
414.1
270.4
267.2
223.8
448.2
317.7
280.8
264.9
246.5
261.1
300.7
269.8
342.0
3181
259.1
270.7
414.6
271.1
267.9
224.2
448.0
318.9
281.4
266.1
245.9
260.2
301.0
270.8
344.2
320.0
262.4
269.6
416.4
272.1
268.5
223.7
446.4
320.5
282.1
267.1
246.0
260.1
300.5
271.7
345.7
321.1
265.1
271.7
413.0
273.4
269.5
224.5
440.1
321.9
281.7
267.2
245.2
258.4
296.6
2707
345.7
321.1
263.8
272.0
406.1
273.6
269.8
225.3
424.5
321.5
282.9
267.9
245.0
255.0
291.4
269.3
349.1
324.0
264.5
275.1
395.7
2757
272.2
227.2
406.6
324.5
264.4
254.2
238.6
260.7
299.9
267.3
313.5
292.0
255.0
270.7
414.0
254.7
248.9
212.2
459.3
293.2
280.1
264.6
247.0
263.4
302.0
270.7
341.6
317.5
257.8
273.2
417.3
269.2
2659
223.0
449.0
318.2
280.7
265.2
247.2
263.3
302.5
270.9
342.9
318.7
258.2
271.9
417.6
269.9
266.6
223.3
448.7
319.5
281.3
266.4
246.6
262.4
302.6
271.9
345.0
320.5
261.4
271.1
419.0
270.9
267.1
222.8
447.0
321.0
281.7
267.2
246.6
262.2
302.0
272.8
346.3
321.6
264.0
273.1
415.4
272.1
268.0
223.6
440.7
322.2
281.3
267.3
245.6
260.2
297.8
271.6
346.4
321.6
262.7
273.3
407.9
272.3
268.3
224.5
425.0
321.8
282.5
267.9
245.3
256.6
292.3
270.1
350.2
324.9
263.5
276.4
396.9
274.5
270.9
226.4
406.9
325.2
Purchasing power of the consumer dollar, 1967 - $1 ....................
$0,375
$0,356
$0,355
$0,354
$0,353
$0,353
$0,352
$0,375
$0,357
$0,356
$0,354
$0,353
$0,354
$0,352
Household services less rent ..............................................
Transportation services........................................................
Other services....................................................................
Special indexes:
All items less mortgage interest costs ............................................
Nondurables less food and apparel................................................
Domestically produced farm foods ................................................
All items less food and energy ............................................
Commodities less food and energy....................................
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
81
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW July 1982 • Current Labor Statistics: Consumer Prices
20.
Continued— Consumer Price Index— U.S. city average
[1967=100 unless otherwise specified]
All Urban Consumers
General summary
1981
Apr.
Nov.
Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (revised)
1982
Dec,
Jan.
Feb.
1981
Mar.
Apr.
Apr.
Nov.
1982
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
FOOD AND BEVERAGES ....................................................................
265.7
269.9
270.5
273.6
275.8
275.6
276.5
266.1
270.3
270.8
273.9
276.0
275.9
276.8
Food....................................................................................................
272.9
277.1
277.8
281.0
283.3
283.0
283.9
273.2
277.4
277.9
281.1
283.4
283.1
284.1
Food at home........................................................................................
Cereals and bakery products ........................................................
Cereals and cereal products (12/77 = 100) ..............................
Flour and prepared flour mixes (12/77 = 100)....................
Cereal (12/77 = 100)........................................................
Rice, pasta, and cornmeal (12/77 = 100) ..........................
Bakery products (12/77 = 100)................................................
White bread ......................................................................
Other breads (12/77 = 100)..............................................
Fresh biscuits, rolls, and muffins (12/77 = 100) ..................
Fresh cakes and cupcakes (12/77 = 100)..........................
Cookies (12/77 = 100)......................................................
Crackers, bread, and cracker products (12/77 = 100) ........
Fresh sweetrolls, coffeecake, and donuts (12/77 = 100) . . .
Frozen and refrigerated bakery products
and fresh pies, tarts, and turnovers (12/77 = 100) ..........
268.7
268.3
145.4
137.1
147.8
149.5
140.8
233.2
139.5
140.4
142.1
141.2
130.9
141.7
271.0
276.3
149.9
138.4
157.4
149.6
144.9
241.3
142.8
145.2
145.0
146.3
133.1
144.8
271.7
277.7
151.5
137.8
160.2
151.7
145.4
241.5
143.4
145.9
144.9
147.6
134.2
145.4
275.3
279.8
153.0
139.1
163.1
151.1
146.4
243.3
143.9
146.5
147.2
148.1
133.4
146.2
278.0
280.9
154.0
139.1
164.8
152.4
146.8
243.8
143.7
146.4
147.0
149.2
135.4
147.0
277.1
281.3
153.9
139.2
165.2
151.2
147.1
242.3
145.1
148.4
148.0
149.4
135.3
146.3
277.9
281.7
153.6
139.7
165.4
149.6
147.5
242.8
145.2
147.6
148.4
150.2
137.3
146.8
268.2
268.0
146.9
139.2
148.9
151.4
140.1
232.1
141.2
138.7
140.8
141.8
131.1
141.7
270.4
275.5
152.1
140.2
158.9
153.9
143.7
237.6
144.9
141.9
143.2
146.8
133.4
145.8
270.8
276.6
152.5
138.4
162.1
152.9
144.3
237.4
145.3
141.9
143.7
148.4
135.6
147.8
274.4
278.6
153.9
139.6
165.1
152.4
145.3
239.4
145.7
142.5
145.8
148.9
134.7
148.9
277.0
279.8
155.0
139.6
166.8
153.6
145.7
240.0
145.5
142.8
145.8
150.1
136.8
149.3
276.2
280.0
154.8
139.6
167.2
152.4
146.0
238.3
147.0
144.6
146.4
150.2
136.5
148.7
277.0
280.4
154.6
140.1
167.4
150.8
146.3
238.8
147.1
143.8
146.8
151.2
138.7
149.3
144.0
149.2
149.3
151.2
151.5
153.5
153.4
139.0
143.1
143.0
144.7
144.8
146.8
146.5
Meats, poultry, fish, and e gg s...........................................................
Meats, poultry, and fish ............................................................
Meats ..............................................................................
Beef and veal ................................................................
Ground beef other than canned....................................
Chuck roast................................................................
Round roast................................................................
Rouna steak ..............................................................
Sirloin steak................................................................
Other beef and veal (12/77 = 100) ............................
P ork..............................................................................
Bacon ........................................................................
Chops ........................................................................
Ham other than canned (12/77 = 100)........................
Sausage ....................................................................
Canned ham ..............................................................
Other pork (12/77 = 100) ..........................................
Other meats ..................................................................
Frankfurters................................................................
Bologna, liverwurst, and salami (12/77 = 100) ............
Other lunchmeats (12/77 = 100) ................................
Lamb and organ meats (12/77 = 100) ........................
Poultry..............................................................................
Fresh whole chicken....................................................
Fresh and frozen chicken parts (12/77 = 100) ............
Other poultry (12/77 = 100) ......................................
Fish and seafood ..............................................................
Canned fish and seafood (12/77 = 100)......................
Fresh and frozen fish and seafood (12/77 = 100) ........
Eggs ......................................................................................
247.7
253.0
251.0
267.4
264.8
281.4
242.8
252.9
261.5
156.1
217.4
209.0
209.2
95.2
277.4
230.1
123.4
255.4
253.5
143.5
127.9
143.1
196.8
198.0
127.5
125.9
359.7
138.8
135.9
184.3
254.2
259.2
259.6
271.5
266.1
282.6
245.0
256.7
262.0
161.1
235.6
238.1
217.0
108.9
298.1
243.1
131.1
260.5
259.9
146.7
132.1
141.7
192.3
190.9
127.3
122.2
358.9
141.5
133.9
194.7
253.7
258.4
258.7
270.5
264.5
282.2
242.6
254.6
260.1
161.0
234.3
237.2
212.4
109.1
299.1
244.3
130.0
260.6
261.0
146.4
132.6
140.7
191.7
190.1
128.1
120.7
359.6
140.7
134.7
198.0
253.7
259.1
257.8
269.4
262.2
279.6
241.6
257.5
258.2
160.9
234.7
235.5
219.2
107.3
297.6
245.4
129.5
258.1
256.7
145.4
132.2
138.6
194.2
193.1
128.5
123.2
373.3
140.6
143.2
189.4
256.8
261.2
260.2
271.5
265.0
285.8
245.3
256.1
257.1
161.4
238.9
245.6
222.1
107.0
300.0
246.1
133.8
258.1
258.0
146.1
131.7
137.7
195.7
196.3
128.9
123.2
373.8
140.9
143.2
205.1
256.9
262.1
261.2
271.7
265.8
284.3
243.0
258.8
260.6
161.5
239.5
249.6
216.3
109.2
305.8
247.6
132.6
262.4
260.5
149.2
133.7
141.0
194.7
195.1
127.5
123.9
376.3
141.0
144.7
195.2
258.3
264.2
263.6
274.8
266.9
285.4
244.9
262.8
271.1
163.7
241 6
255.9
223.4
105.4
305.7
245.6
135.2
262.8
259.5
150.2
133.2
142.6
193.3
194.1
127.6
121.3
382.0
141.5
147.9
186.9
247.1
252.2
250.7
269.5
269.0
291.8
247.5
251.3
262.7
154.9
216.7
210.0
206.3
92.6
280.1
230.8
123.8
253.4
252.8
142.6
126.4
143.8
194.6
194.1
125.8
126.3
353.7
136.6
133.6
185.5
254.0
258.8
259.3
272.2
268.0
292.6
248.2
254.8
260.7
159.2
235.9
242.9
216.2
106.6
299.2
247.0
130.9
259.9
260.9
145.9
130.6
144.6
190.6
188.5
126.5
121.5
356.6
141.0
132.7
196.7
253.1
257.7
257.9
270.9
265.8
291.5
245.9
252.2
260.7
159.1
233.8
240.5
211.0
106.3
300.0
247.7
129.2
259.7
260.0
146.3
130.6
143.9
189.5
187.8
126.3
119.8
358.6
140.2
134.4
198.8
253.3
258.6
257.3
270.1
263.7
288.5
244.7
256.1
258.9
159.3
234.4
239.3
217.6
104.8
298.8
249.0
128.8
257.3
256.1
145.4
130.2
141.4
192.4
190.9
126.9
123.0
372.4
140.0
143.0
190.6
256.4
260.7
259.7
272.2
266.3
295.0
248.9
254.4
257.8
159.7
238.5
249.3
220.2
1047
301.0
249.9
133.1
2574
257.1
146.2
129.7
141.0
193.8
194.4
127.1
122.6
373.2
140.4
143.2
206.1
256.4
261.5
260.6
272.3
266.9
293.1
245.9
256.4
262.2
159.8
238.9
253.3
214.7
106.5
306.6
251.2
131.7
261.7
260.0
149.4
131.7
144.2
192.8
192.8
125.9
123.3
375.5
140.5
144.6
196.3
257.8
263.6
262.8
275.3
267.9
294.1
247.9
260.8
272.4
162.1
241.0
259.7
221.7
102.8
306.3
248.9
134.5
261.8
258.4
150.3
131.2
145.6
191.5
192.0
125.9
120.8
381.4
140.8
148.0
187.9
Dairy products..........................................................................
Fresh milk and cream (12/77 = 100) ................................
Fresh whole m ilk............................................................
Other fresh milk and cream (12/77 = 100)......................
Processed dairy products (12/77 = 100)............................
Butter............................................................................
Cheese (12/77 = 100) ..................................................
Ice cream and related products (12/77 = 100)................
Other dairy products (12/77 = 100)................................
243.5
134.6
220.4
134.5
142.0
244.3
140.6
146.7
135.7
245.0
134.9
220.8
134.9
143.5
248.0
141.1
149.3
138.7
245.5
135.2
221.2
135.3
143.9
248.7
141.0
150.3
139.7
245.8
135.1
221.2
135.1
144.4
249.3
142.0
150.8
138.4
246.5
135.5
221.5
135.8
144.8
248.9
142.8
150.0
140.0
246.5
135.3
221.7
135.1
144.9
250.1
143.3
149.5
139.5
247.5
135.9
222.2
136.2
145.6
250.1
143.7
150.9
139.9
243.8
134.7
220.2
135.2
142.6
247.7
140.5
147.8
136.1
244.7
134.6
220.1
134.9
144.0
250.2
141.1
149.4
140.2
244.9
134.6
220.2
134.9
144.2
251.3
141.3
149.4
140.5
245.2
134.6
220.2
134.7
144.7
252.0
142.3
149.9
139.1
245.8
134.9
220.5
135.5
145,1
251.4
143.1
149.1
140.8
245.9
134.8
220.8
134.6
145.3
252.7
143.6
148.9
140.3
246.8
135.3
221.3
135.7
145.9
252.7
144.0
150.2
140.8
Fruits and vegetables ..............................................................
Fresh fruits and vegetables ................................................
Fresh fruits ....................................................................
Apples........................................................................
Bananas ....................................................................
Oranges ....................................................................
Other fresh fruits (12/77 = 100)..................................
Fresh vegetables............................................................
Potatoes ....................................................................
Lettuce ......................................................................
Tomatoes ..................................................................
Other fresh vegetables (12/77 = 100) ........................
281.9
296.4
271.6
231.1
266.8
287.5
147.1
319.6
378.1
226.9
375.3
170.0
272.0
267.8
276.1
248.7
249.4
314.0
144.7
260.1
286.3
257.1
206.9
145.0
276.4
274.9
269.6
261.2
254.9
280.6
141.0
279.8
286.8
343.1
204.6
150.4
294.7
308.0
276.7
273.0
253.5
283.1
145.9
337.3
288.8
514.4
245.6
174.8
301.5
319.6
291.2
279.5
251.0
313.1
154.5
346.2
297.4
408.9
288.5
199.1
293.1
302.1
297.8
288.7
263.0
316.3
157.2
306.1
301.0
270.9
258.1
185.0
294.0
304.1
306.7
287.5
268.5
330.8
163.4
301.8
306.1
355.2
220.5
166.3
280.0
294.5
268.6
232.1
262.2
274.3
147.6
318.0
369.8
231.5
370.7
170.0
268.1
261.9
266.0
249.1
248.3
286.0
139.7
258.2
281.5
247.4
209.7
145.8
272.6
269.4
260.5
261.2
252.8
252.8
136.7
277.6
280.0
342.7
207.8
149.1
291.3
303.1
267.0
272.6
251.1
255.1
141.0
335.8
282.7
515.8
248.8
173.9
297.4
313.4
280.1
279.9
247.9
281.1
149.0343.5
291.5
408.0
293.2
197.2
289.1
296.1
287.3
288.5
261.1
285.9
151.8
304.2
294.8
271.3
261.8
184.0
290.3
298.9
295.5
287.8
266.1
300.2
157.6
302.0
300.8
358.6
224.9
166.7
Processed fruits and vegetables ........................................
Processed fruits (12/77 = 100) ......................................
Frozen fruit and fruit juices (12/77 = 100)....................
Fruit juices other than frozen (12/77 = 100) ................
Canned and dried fruits (12/77 = 100) ........................
Processed vegetables (12/77 = 100)..............................
Frozen vegetables (12/77 = 100)................................
268.5
141.0
1428
144.5
135.6
128.9
128.3
279.2
145.1
144.9
148.6
141.6
135.4
137.4
280.6
145.0
142.3
149.5
142.6
136.9
139.1
282.7
146.4
143.5
151.4
143.6
137.6
140.7
284.2
147.9
147.8
151.5
144.3
137.7
141.7
285.8
149.0
149.2
152.4
145.3
138.2
142.0
285.5
148.2
147.1
151.5
145.6
138.6
144.0
266.1
140.1
140.2
143.2
136.6
128.1
129.1
277.3
144.6
144.1
147.4
141.8
134.7
139.2
278.4
144.5
141.2
148.3
143.0
135.7
140.2
280.6
146.0
142.8
150.1
144.0
136.5
141.8
282.0
147.4
146.6
150.3
144.8
136.6
143.1
283.7
148.6
148.2
151.4
145.9
137.2
143.4
283.3
147.7
146.1
150.4
146.2
137.5
145.3
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
20.
Continued— Consumer Price Index— U.S. city average
[1967= 100 unless otherwise specified]
All Urban Consumers
General summary
1981
Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (revised)
1982
1981
1982
Apr.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
Apr.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
130.2
128.7
324.7
375.8
144.1
195.5
139.8
270.1
256.1
182.4
129.8
414.4
298.0
141.8
356.7
339.5
133.5
251.2
129.3
142.3
145.6
139.9
139.2
136.7
135.1
138.3
133.1
326.0
359.1
149.3
155.2
144.9
262.2
255.2
163.0
129 8
413.4
298.8
141.4
341.0
330.8
136.4
262.7
133.4
146.5
152.5
148.9
145.0
144.8
141.8
138.9
134.8
325.6
359.3
149.9
153.4
146.1
261.1
255.7
160.1
129.7
412.5
2981
139.3
344.4
332.0
137.0
262.8
133.7
145.9
152.2
148.8
144.6
145.8
142.5
139.9
135.0
328.7
361.6
150.1
155.6
147.1
261.6
257.8
157.7
130.5
418.7
302.4
141.9
353.3
336.9
138.0
264.6
134.3
147.8
152.6
149.7
146.4
146.9
142.5
140.7
134.1
330.7
364.2
150.0
160.0
146.9
260.5
256.7
157.8
129.8
423.4
304.6
143.8
364.4
342.8
138.4
265.3
135.9
146.2
153.4
151.3
146.9
147.0
143.0
141.2
134.8
331.7
365.5
150.3
161.0
147.4
259.6
256.7
156.1
129.5
424.8
306.6
143.4
366.6
343.6
138.9
266.5
135.6
147.0
153.4
153.2
148.2
147.7
143.2
140.5
135 0
331.6
365.3
150.9
159.9
147.2
260.4
259.6
157.3
129.0
424.1
304.9
143.4
369.6
3434
138.7
266.6
135.7
147.2
152.9
153.6
148.7
147.6
143.3
129.0
127.1
325.4
377.8
145.1
196.0
138.7
270.4
256.1
182.3
129.7
415.8
294.9
139.8
352.5
340.9
133.5
252.4
129.8
139.8
148.1
138.7
141.7
137.7
135.9
136.0
131.8
327.0
359.0
148.9
157.0
143.1
263.1
254.9
163.0
130.4
415.2
296.1
139.3
337.3
333.2
136.4
264.5
136.1
145.1
155.6
147.4
146.5
145.2
143.0
136.5
133.2
326.4
359.3
149.9
154.6
144.2
261.0
254.9
158.5
130.1
414.2
295.7
137.2
340.1
331.6
137.1
264.4
135.7
145.3
154.2
147.7
146.2
145.8
143.9
137.5
133.5
329.6
361.6
150.0
157.0
145.2
261.5
257.2
156.0
131.0
420.5
300.0
139.7
348.8
336.5
138.2
266.3
136.4
147.4
154.6
148.6
148.0
147.0
143.9
138.3
132.6
331.5
364.1
149.8
161.3
145.1
260.6
256.1
156.3
130.2
425.0
302.0
141.7
359.9
342.5
138.6
266.9
137.9
145.6
155.2
150.3
148.4
147.1
144.5
138.8
133.3
332.6
365.4
150.1
162.4
145.5
259.7
256.1
154.4
130.0
426.6
303.8
141.4
362.2
343.4
139.1
268.1
137.8
146.5
155.4
152.2
149.9
147.9
144.5
137.9
133.5
332.6
365.2
150.8
161.1
145.3
260.4
259.1
155.6
129.5
426.0
302.4
141.5
365.0
343.0
138.9
268.3
137.8
146.7
155.0
152.7
150.4
147.7
144.6
Food away from home..............................................................
Lunch (12/77=100) ..................................................
Dinner (12/77=100) ..........................................................
Other meals and snacks (12/77=100)............................................
288.2
140.7
139.4
138.8
297.2
144.4
143.6
144.6
297.7
144.6
144.0
144.7
299.8
146.1
144.8
145.4
301.2
146.6
145.2
146.9
302.4
147.0
145.7
147.9
303.6
147.5
146.3
148.6
290.7
141.4
141.1
140.1
299.6
145.6
145.1
145.1
300.7
146.3
145.6
145.4
302.8
147.7
146.4
146.2
304.2
148.2
146.8
147.6
305.4
148.6
147.3
148.7
306.7
149.1
147.9
149.3
Alcoholic beverages ....................................................
197.8
202.3
202.7
204.0
205.6
206.6
207.4
199.4
204.6
204.9
206.0
207.6
208.8
209.5
Alcoholic beverages at home (12/77=100) .......................................
Beer and a le ....................................................................
Whiskey ........................................................
Wine..........................................
Other alcoholic beverages (12/77=100)............................................
Alcoholic beverages away from home (12/77=100)................................
128.5
199.7
141.3
224.7
114.9
131.6
131.2
204.0
144.8
227.5
117.3
135.7
131.4
204.1
145.0
230.0
117.3
135.8
132.2
205.0
145.9
232.2
117.5
137.0
133.3
207.4
146.8
234.2
117.8
137.6
134.0
209.2
147.0
235.3
118.1
138.2
134.6
210.5
147.2
236.4
118.2
138.4
130.0
199.8
142.3
233.2
114.1
130.6
132.8
203.6
146.2
237.4
116.8
136.6
132.8
203.5
145.9
238.0
117.4
137.3
133.4
204.3
146.8
239.8
117.5
138.6
134.6
206.5
147.7
241.6
117.8
139.1
135.4
208.3
147.8
243.3
118.0
139.7
136.0
209.6
148.0
244.4
118.0
139.9
307.3
306.7
309.4
284.3
303.8
304.7
305.6
306.7
306.2
309.2
FOOD AND BEVERAGES - Continued
Food — Continued
Food at home— Continued
Fruits and vegetables — Continued
Cut com and canned beans except lima (12/77=100) . . . .
Other canned and dried vegetables (12/77=100)..............
Other foods at hom e............................................
Sugar and sweets......................................
Candy and chewing gum (12/77=100) ................................
Sugar and artificial sweeteners (12/77=100)........................
Other sweets (12/77=100) ....................................
Fats and oils (12/77=100) ..............................................
Margarine ................................................................
Nondairy substitutes and peanut butter (12/77=100) ............
Other fats, oils, and salad dressings (12/77=100) ................
Nonalcoholic beverages ............................................
Cola drinks, excluding diet c o la ..........................................
Carbonated drinks, including diet cola (12/77=100)..............
Roasted coffee ..................................................
Freeze dried and instant coffee..........................................
Other noncarbonated drinks (12/77=100)............................
Other prepared foods ..................................................
Canned and packaged soup (12/77=100)............................
Frozen prepared foods (12/77=100)....................................
Snacks (12/77=100)..............................................
Seasonings, olives, pickles, and relish (12/77=100)..............
Other condiments (12/77=100) ..........................................
Miscellaneous prepared foods (12/77 = 100) ........................
Other canned and packaged prepared foods (12/77=100) . . .
HOUSING..................................................................
284.8
304.2
305.2
306.1
Shelter..........................................................
303.8
327.2
328.0
328.3
329.5
327.6
331.4
304.6
328.5
329.3
329.4
330.3
328.5
332.8
Rent, residential..........................................
204.2
215.0
216.5
217.8
218.6
219.6
220.1
203.9
214.5
216.0
217.4
218.1
219.1
219.6
Other rental costs ........................................................
Lodging while out of town........................................
Tenants’ insurance (12/77=100) ........................................
285.9
307.5
131.2
305.3
318.6
140.4
306.3
319.9
140.7
313.6
331.1
141.8
316.9
335.9
143.5
320.1
340.9
144.1
323.7
346.6
144.9
285.8
306.0
131.6
305.0
317.9
140.3
305.3
318.0
140.6
312.3
328.4
142.0
315.6
333.0
143.6
318.9
337.9
144.3
322.8
343.9
144.7
Homeownership............................................
Home purchase......................................................................
Financing, taxes, and insurance ........................................................
Property insurance ..........................................................
Property taxes ......................................................................
Contracted mortgage interest co s t..............................................
Mortgage interest rates........................................................
Maintenance and repairs ..........................................................
Maintenance and repair services ................................................
Maintenance and repair commodities ..........................................
Paint and wallpaper, supplies, tools, and
equipment (12/77=100) ..................................................
Lumber, awnings, glass, and masonry (12/77=100)..............
Plumbing, electrical, heating, and cooling
supplies (12/77=100)......................................................
Miscellaneous supplies and equipment (12/77=100) ............
339.3
260.7
447.1
378.5
199.9
579.8
219.5
309.3
337.0
244.4
367.2
270.2
505.6
393.3
208.0
666.8
244.1
322.8
353.8
249.7
367.8
270.5
506.3
394.1
210.7
666.6
243.9
324.1
355.4
250.3
367.5
269.3
506.0
393.0
212.9
665.2
244.4
326.7
358.2
252.5
368.7
270.4
507.2
393.7
215.1
666.1
243.9
328.2
359.4
254.6
365.7
269.2
500.9
394.1
216.6
655.5
240.7
327.2
357.8
255.0
370.6
272.3
508.4
393.6
217.2
667.1
242.1
331.6
363.6
256.2
341.1
259.7
452.6
382.5
201.7
580.9
220.3
304.5
334.1
239.7
369.8
268.6
511.9
395.5
210.0
667.7
245.3
319.8
354.9
244.5
370.4
268.7
512.9
396.5
212.5
668.1
245.3
321.0
356.5
244.9
369.9
267.4
512.2
395.6
214.5
666.3
245.7
323.3
359.2
246.4
370.8
268.3
513.2
396.0
217.2
666.6
245.4
324.6
360.1
248.2
367.9
267.1
507.0
396.5
218.5
656.4
242.3
323.7
358.6
248.6
373.6
270.5
516.0
396.0
219.1
670.2
244.4
328.3
365.0
249.7
143.4
124.3
146.5
124.1
147.3
124.3
149.4
124.6
150.9
124.6
151.8
123.9
153.1
124.5
136.8
123.1
140.0
121.8
140.5
121.6
142.3
121.9
143.7
121.7
144.7
121.2
145.8
121.9
127.9
126.4
133.1
131.6
131.5
132.5
131.9
133.6
133.8
134.8
133.4
135.1
133.4
135.6
127.9
129.9
132.4
134.2
131.6
134.7
131.8
135.7
133.4
136.9
133.1
137.1
133.1
137.4
Fuel and other utilities................................................................
310.5
329.8
331.8
336.2
337.1
339.3
339.2
311.4
330.9
332.7
337.0
337.9
340.2
340.3
Fuels ............................................................................
Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas............................................................
Fuel o il......................................................................................
Other fuels (6/78 = 100) ..........................................................
Gas (piped) and electricity ................................................................
Electricity..................................................................................
Utility (piped) gas ......................................................................
396.5
690.6
727.0
162.5
330.6
277.3
399.4
417.6
420.0
676.1
682.5
706.8
713.5
167.7
169.4
358.3
359.9
298.6 ' 300.3
437.0
438.2
426.9
686.0
716.8
170.9
367.4
306.6
447.2
427.6
683.1
713.8
170.0
368.7
306.8
450.8
430.5
664.0
692.3
168.0
375.9
313.3
458.6
428.2
641.3
666.2
166.4
377.8
312.8
465.3
396.2
693.7
729.4
164.2
329.6
276.8
397.2
417.4
679.3
709.6
169.1
357.5
297.7
436.0
419.6
685.5
716.0
170.8
358.8
299.3
436.4
426.2
688 9
719.3
172.1
366.0
305.3
445.2
426.8
686.0
716.3
171.4
367.3
305.5
448.7
429.9
666.7
694.4
169.5
374.8
312.3
456.6
427.8
644.0
668.4
167.9
376.8
311.8
463.6
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
83
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW July 1982 • Current Labor Statistics: Consumer Prices
20.
Continued— Consumer Price Index— U.S. city average
[1967 = 100 unless otherwise specified]
Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (revised)
All Urban Consumers
General summary
1982
1981
1982
1981
Apr.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
Apr.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
Other utilities and public services ............................................................
Telephone services ..........................................................................
Local charges (12/77 - 100) ....................................................
Interstate toll calls (12/77 = 100) ..............................................
Intrastate toll calls (12/77 = 100) ..............................................
Water and sewerage maintenance ....................................................
175.1
143.4
114.8
101.8
101.4
278.4
190.7
155.6
123.5
116.7
105.3
306.1
191.9
156.8
124.4
116.7
107.1
307.4
192.7
157.2
124.0
116.8
109.2
309.8
193.9
157.9
125.3
116.6
109.1
313.3
195.0
158.5
125.6
117.7
109.0
316.9
197.7
160.8
127.9
119.9
108.9
320.7
175.4
143.4
114.9
101.9
101.2
280.3
191.0
155.8
123.8
116.8
105.0
307.9
192.2
156.9
124.6
116.8
106.9
309.4
193.1
157.3
124.2
116.9
109.0
312.2
194.3
158.0
125.4
116.7
108.8
315.7
195.4
158 6
125.7
117.8
108.7
319.7
198.2
161.0
128.1
120.2
108.7
323.6
Household furnishings and operations ................................................
219.2
227.2
227.7
228.4
230.2
231.6
232.6
215.9
223.6
224.2
224.9
226.7
228.0
229.1
Housefurnishings ....................................................................................
Textile housefurnishings....................................................................
Household linens (12/77 = 100) ................................................
Curtains, drapes, slipcovers, and sewing materials (12/77 = 100) .
Furniture and bedding ......................................................................
Bedroom furniture (12/77 = 100) ..............................................
Sofas (12/77 = 100) ................................................................
Living room chairs and tables (12/77 - 100) ..............................
Other furniture (12/77 = 100)....................................................
Appliances including TV and sound equipment....................................
Television and sound equipment (12/77 - 100) ..........................
Teievisior ..........................................................................
Sound equipment (12/77 = 100) ........................................
Household appliances................................................................
Refrigerators and home freezers..........................................
Laundry equipment (12/77 = 100) ......................................
Other household appliances (12/77 - 100)..........................
Stoves, dishwashers, vacuums, and sewing
machines (12/77 = 100)..............................................
Office machines, small electric appliances,
and air conditioners (12/77 = 100)................................
Other household equipment (12/77 = 100)........................................
Floor and window coverings, infants’, laundry,
cleaning, and outdoor equipment (12/77 = 100) ......................
Clocks, lamps, and decor items (12/77 = 100) ..........................
Tableware, serving pieces, and nonelectric
kitchenware (12/77 = 100) ....................................................
Lawn equipment, power tools, and other hardware (12/77 = 100) .
183.9
200.5
123.0
127.1
203.7
134.5
116.5
116.6
133.4
145.3
108.6
106.0
112.1
170.4
170.6
126.1
116.6
189.4
211.7
130.8
133.1
209.2
139.6
118.7
118.8
137.1
148.2
109.0
104.8
113.9
176.1
178.7
130.7
119.4
189.2
211.2
128.8
134.7
209.7
138.6
119.4
119.0
138.4
147.9
108.9
104.7
113.7
175.9
179.9
130.5
118.7
189.8
210.1
127.3
134.8
209.5
139.7
117.3
118.9
138.5
148 8
108.8
104.4
113.8
178.0
180.8
132.2
120.6
191.4
216.0
131.0
138.5
209.4
140.5
116.4
118.6
138.1
149.9
109.2
104.5
114.5
179.7
182.6
133.5
121.6
192.7
217.7
134.7
136.7
212.1
140.8
118.0
121.6
140.5
150.1
109.1
104.7
114.0
180.3
183.7
133.3
122.2
193.8
218.7
135.8
136.9
214.7
142.3
119.3
123.2
142.3
150.6
108.7
104.2
113.7
182.1
184.8
136.4
122.9
181.6
202.9
125.0
128.2
200.0
130.7
114.9
117.6
130.1
144.2
107.1
104.7
110.2
169.9
174.7
125.7
114.4
187.3
214.7
131.9
136.1
205.3
135.2
118.8
118.9
133.1
147.7
108.3
103.6
113.4
175.9
182.7
130.8
117.4
187.1
213.9
129.9
137.4
206.0
135.2
119.5
119.1
134.0
147.5
108.0
103.3
112.9
176.0
185.3
130.3
116.8
187.7
212.5
128.6
137.0
205.9
136.5
117.6
119.0
133.9
148.5
107.9
103.1
113.0
178.1
186.1
132.4
118.5
189.3
218.5
132.1
141.0
205.5
137.1
116.5
118.8
133.4
149.6
108.4
103.3
113.8
179.9
187.9
133.8
119.7
190.4
219.9
135.6
138.7
208.2
137.2
118.2
121.8
135.8
149.7
108.2
103.5
113.2
180.4
189.3
133.5
120.0
191.7
221.4
137.0
139.1
211.0
138.9
119.6
123.3
137.9
150.3
107.7
103.0
112.8
182.3
190.6
136.6
120.7
115.8
118.7
117.9
119.4
121.0
121.9
122.3
113.9
116.8
116.2
117.4
118.9
119.3
119.7
122.5
137.3
123.5
137.8
115.0
127.9
118.1
132.4
117.3
131.9
119.7
132.9
120.5
134.7
120.7
135.3
121.8
135.6
HOUSING
Continued
Fuel and other utilities — Continued
117.4
130.0
120.1
134.4
119.6
134.0
121.9
134.9
122.4
136.7
131.4
125.6
136.1
129.5
135.9
128.4
136.3
128.6
139.1
129.8
140.9
129.0
140.3
130.2
124.4
1209
129.7
125.2
128.3
124,7
128.6
124.8
131.0
126.0
133.3
125.4
132.9
126.5
137.1
121.5
141.2
126.9
141.0
126.3
142.3
127.8
143.3
130.3
143.1
132.1
145.0
130.8
134.1
125.9
137.5
131.6
137.1
131.5
138.2
133.2
139.5
135.5
139.0
137.3
140.6
136.0
Housekeeping supplies............................................................................
Soaps and detergents ......................................................................
Other laundry and cleaning products (12/77 = 100) ..........................
Cleansing and toilet tissue, paper towels and napkins (12/77 = 100) ..
Stationery, stationery supplies, and gift wrap (12/77 = 100) ..............
Miscellaneous household products (12/77 = 100)..............................
Lawn and garden supplies (12/77 = 100)..........................................
266.9
259.4
131.0
138.4
123.1
138.1
139.1
275.4
269.7
137.3
143.6
128.5
143.0
136.8
277.4
271.6
138.8
144.5
128.8
145.4
136.7
279.1
275.5
139.6
145.1
128.8
146.2
137.1
282.4
278.0
141.0
145.7
130.4
146.9
141.8
284.2
279.5
142.1
145.7
130.7
147.5
144.7
284.9
2800
142.7
146.4
131.4
147.5
144.7
263.4
256.7
130.4
138.5
124.8
134.5
131.1
271.9
265.2
137.0
143.9
131.3
137.4
129.6
274.1
268.0
137.5
144.4
131.6
140.4
129.4
275.7
272.0
138.4
145.1
131.7
141.2
129.2
278.8
274,4
139.8
145.6
133.4
141.8
134.1
280.4
275.7
140.9
145.4
133.8
142.4
136.7
281.2
276.3
141.6
146.2
134.6
142.4
136.8
Housekeeping services............................................................................
Postage ..........................................................................................
Moving, storage, freight, household laundry, and
drycleaning services (12/77 = 100) ..............................................
Appliance and furniture repair (12/77 = 100) ....................................
289.9
308.0
305.2
337.5
306.9
337.5
307.4
337.5
308.1
337.5
309.9
337.5
310.4
337.5
288.6
308.1
303.9
337.5
305.4
337.5
305.9
337.5
306.8
337.5
308.2
337.5
309.2
337.5
140.7
125.2
147.0
132.2
147.8
133.0
148.4
133.6
149.4
134.2
150.8
135.0
152.1
135.6
140.2
124.3
146.7
131.2
147.6
131.6
148.0
132.2
149.1
132.8
150.6
133.5
152.2
134.1
APPAREL AND UPKEEP........................................................................
186.4
191.3
190.5
187.3
188.0
191.1
191.9
186.0
190.5
189.4
186.5
187.3
190.5
191.2
Apparel commodities............................................................................
177.6
181.8
180.7
177.0
177.6
180.8
181.4
177.5
181.5
180.1
176.7
177.4
180.8
181.3
Apparel commodities less footwear....................................................
Men’s and boys’ ..............................................................................
Men's (12/77 = 100) ................................................................
Suits, sport coats, and jackets (12/77 = 100) ......................
Coats and jackets (12/77 = 100)........................................
Furnishings and special clothing (12/77 = 100) ....................
Shirts (12/77 = 100) ..........................................................
Dungarees, jeans, and trousers (12/77 = 100) ....................
Boys’ (12/77 = 100) ................................................................
Coats, jackets, sweaters, and shirts (12/77 = 100) ..............
Furnishings (12/77 = 100)..................................................
Suits, trousers, sport coats, and jackets (12/77 = 100) ........
Women’s and girls’ ..........................................................................
Women’s (12/77 = 100)............................................................
Coats and jackets ..............................................................
Dresses ..............................................................................
Separates and sportswear (12/77 = 100)............................
Underwear, nightwear, and hosiery (12/77 = 100)................
Suits (12/77 = 100)............................................................
Girls’ (12/77 = 100)..................................................................
Coats, jackets, dresses, and suits (12/77 = 100)..................
Separates and sportswear (12/77 = 100)............................
Underwear, nightwear, hosiery, and
accessories (12/77 = 100)..............................................
174.0
175.6
110.5
104.1
98.1
127.5
117.0
105.4
114.5
107.2
121.5
117.4
158.8
105.0
157.6
167.8
100.2
119.3
91.6
108.6
106.4
106.8
177.9
183.6
115.9
109.9
102.8
133.6
123.0
109.8
118.0
111.6
127.0
119.3
160.6
106.3
164.0
165.0
101.1
124.1
89.5
109.2
100.3
111.3
176.6
181.6
114.5
106.4
101.4
134.2
122.7
108.5
117.2
109.9
127.5
118.8
159.6
105.8
161.8
164.0
100.7
124.8
87.7
107.7
98.4
108.9
172.8
178.7
112.9
104.3
96.4
133.6
120.7
108.2
114.6
104.7
127.3
117.2
154.3
102.3
158.4
153.1
96.7
124.0
84.2
104.4
93.4
106.3
173.4
179.3
113.0
104.8
95.8
134.7
119.3
108.6
116.0
105.9
128.2
119.1
154.7
102.9
156.4
152.8
96.3
126.2
87.0
102.7
92.6
103.4
176.8
181.7
114.5
107.2
98.1
136 8
119.9
108.6
117.8
109.4
128.7
120.1
160.3
106.8
162.0
163.1
100.3
127.1
92.7
105.6
98.2
104.6
177.4
183.1
115.5
107.6
99.1
138.2
121.3
109.7
118.3
111.2
130.3
119.0
160.9
107.1
163.4
166.6
100.1
127.4
89.4
106.4
98.8
105.4
173.9
176.1
110.9
98.3
99.6
122.7
119.5
111.5
113.9
110.9
118.2
114.8
160.7
106.7
156.8
159.8
102.6
119.1
108.0
107.8
101.3
109.5
177.3
183.2
115.9
102.0
105.1
129.8
125.4
115.5
116.5
112.8
123.3
116.9
162.1
107.6
166.3
151.9
101.9
124.0
108.5
108.4
99.9
110.2
175.6
181.7
115.0
99.5
104.1
130.6
125.3
114.1
115.4
110.9
123.5
115.9
160.7
107.1
167.3
149.5
101.3
124.5
106.0
106.0
96.1
107.5
172.2
178.6
113.3
97.8
97.6
129.8
123.3
113.6
112.9
105.3
123.3
114.7
156.4
103.9
161.6
140.7
97.3
123.7
104.0
104.2
91.2
108.2
173.0
179.4
113.5
98.2
97.2
131.1
121.8
114.1
114.3
106.3
124.2
116.7
157.1
104.8
163.1
140.9
96.8
126.0
105.6
103.1
91.5
106.0
176.6
181.6
114.7
100.4
99.7
133.1
122.3
114.2
116.1
109.7
124.7
117.8
163.0
109.0
173.1
148.1
101.2
126.9
114.1
106.0
97.2
106.9
177.1
182.9
115.7
101.1
100.7
134.5
123.4
115.1
116.5
111.5
126.0
116.8
163.4
109.1
172.9
151.1
101.0
127.3
111.0
106.9
97.6
107.6
115.5
120.0
120.7
119.2
118.0
119.6
122.0
115.4
119.0
119.5
118.2
117.0
118.7
121.0
Digitized84
for FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
20.
Continued— Consumer Price Index— U.S. city average
[1967 = 100 unless otherwise specified]
All Urban Consumers
General summary
1981
Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (revised)
1982
1981
1982
Apr.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
Apr.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
Apparel commodities less footwear — Continued
Infants’ and toddlers’ ......................................................................
Other apparel commodities ............................................................
Sewing materials and notions (12/77 = 100) ............................
Jewelry and luggage (12/77 = 100) ........................................
259.2
214.1
114.8
148.4
264.9
214.8
118.6
147.5
259.4
214.5
118.3
147.4
259.6
212.9
116.2
146.7
262.2
214.3
117.6
147.4
264.7
212.7
118.1
145.7
267.0
210.8
118.5
143.8
269.3
205.6
114.3
141.4
274.1
206.1
116.4
141.0
270.6
203.2
116.2
138.4
270.1
201.4
114.3
137.5
271.4
202.8
115.9
138.1
275.4
201.6
116.5
136.7
278.2
199.5
116.9
134.5
Footwear ..............................................................................................
Men’s (12/77 = 100) ....................................................................
Boys’ and girls’ (12/77 = 100) ......................................................
Women’s (12/77 = 100)................................................................
199.3
126.8
128.2
121.3
205.4
130.3
132.1
125.2
205.7
130.7
132.1
125.4
202.8
130.3
130.1
122.6
202.8
130.7
129.5
122.7
204.9
132.5
129.2
124.7
205.6
132.3
130.4
125.1
198.4
128.0
126.7
119.3
206.2
132.3
134.0
122.9
205.9
132.5
134.8
121.6
203.1
132.2
132.5
118.9
203.3
132.6
132.3
119.0
205.2
134.5
132.1
120.8
206.1
134.4
133.6
121.1
Apparel services ..............................................................
Laundry and drycleaning other than coin operated (12/77 = 100)............
Other apparel services (12/77 = 100) ..................................................
254.3
150.9
134.5
264.6
158.2
137.9
266.4
159.2
139.1
267.6
160.0
139.4
269.4
161.4
139.8
271.3
162.4
141.1
273.4
163.5
142.5
252.7
150.4
134.0
262.3
156.3
138.6
264.4
157.8
139.6
265.5
158.5
139.9
267.2
159.9
140.3
269.0
160.9
141.5
271.0
162.0
142.7
TRANSPORTATION ..........................................................................
275.3
289.1
289.8
289.9
288.0
285.1
282.9
276.3
290.8
291.5
291.6
289.6
286.6
284.3
Private....................................................................................
273.4
285.8
286.5
286.6
284.5
281.3
278.8
275.1
288.3
289.0
289.0
286.9
283.7
281.2
New cars ............................................................................................
Used cars ............................................................................................
Gasoline ..............................................................................................
Automobile maintenance and repair........................................................
Body work (12/77 = 100)..............................................................
Automobile drive train, brake, and miscellaneous
mechanical repair (12/77 = 100) ................................................
Maintenance and servicing (12/77 = 100) ......................................
Power plant repair (12/77 = 100) ..................................................
Other private transportation ..................................................................
Other private transportation commodities ........................................
Motor oil, coolant, and other products (12/77 = 100) ................
Automobile parts and equipment (12/77 = 100)........................
Tires ................................................................................
Other parts and equipment (12/77 = 100) ........................
Other private transportation services................................................
Automobile insurance ..............................................................
Automobile finance charges (12/77 = 100) ..............................
Automobile rental, registration, and other fees (12/77 = 100) . . .
State registration ..............................................................
Drivers’ licenses (12/77 = 100) ........................................
Vehicle inspection (12/77 = 100) ......................................
Other vehicle-related fees (12/77 = 100) ..........................
186.1
239.1
419.3
289.0
1408
195.3
281.4
409.5
302.8
149.9
197.0
281.9
408.4
304.1
150.6
197.4
280.5
406.0
305.5
151.5
195.5
279.7
399.1
307.7
153.7
194.4
280.9
383.9
310.2
154.5
196.0
285.1
366.7
311.9
155.0
186.2
239.1
420.8
289.7
140.7
195.2
281.4
410.9
303.4
148.3
196.9
281.9
409.8
304.8
148.9
197.3
280.5
407.5
306.2
149.8
195.3
279.7
400.6
308.4
152.1
194.2
280.9
385.4
311.1
152.7
195.9
285.2
368.2
312.8
153.3
138.0
135.5
137.8
236.3
208.1
143.5
133.2
185.8
130.1
246.2
255.7
166.5
118.2
146.9
105.5
126.0
138.4
144.2
140.9
144.9
249.5
213.4
148.5
136.4
189.7
134.1
261.5
265.4
188.7
120.7
149.0
110.4
(’ )
141.3
144.7
141.5
145.6
250.6
214.5
148.7
137.2
191.5
133.9
262.6
266.0
190.5
120.8
149.0
111.9
128.3
141.6
145.7
142.0
146.2
253.3
215.5
148.2
138.1
192.8
134.3
265.8
266.8
190.9
127.6
166.9
117.3
129,2
142.5
146.5
142.7
147.3
253.4
214.8
149.3
137.4
191.3
134.6
266.1
268.1
188.9
128.9
167.1
121.7
129.3
144.8
148.7
143.9
148.0
254.5
215.6
150.2
137.9
191.7
135.7
267.2
2698
188.9
129.7
168.5
122.9
129.3
145.3
149.5
144.5
149.1
255.1
214.9
150.7
137.2
190.1
136.2
268.2
270.4
187.2
133.3
174.2
123.0
129 0
149.5
140.5
135.7
136.7
239.2
210.4
140.5
135.4
189.6
130.8
249.2
255.2
166.3
119.3
147.0
105.2
126.6
147.1
147.3
140.5
144.7
253.0
216.8
146.7
139.2
195.1
134.1
265.1
265.0
187.6
121.1
149.0
110.3
(’ )
148.6
148.5
141.0
145.1
254.2
216.9
147.2
139.2
195.2
133.9
266.6
265.6
189.9
121.4
149.0
111.9
129.0
149.2
149.5
141.5
145.7
256.9
218.0
146.9
140.0
196.5
134.5
269.7
266.6
190.3
128.4
166.2
117.1
130.5
150.4
150.2
142.3
146.8
256.8
217.3
147.8
139.4
195.1
134.9
269.8
268.0
188.3
129.5
166.5
121.7
130.6
152.4
152.8
143.4
147.5
257.8
218.2
148.7
139.9
195.5
135.9
270.8
269.6
188.2
130.1
167.8
123.0
130.6
152.5
153.7
144.0
148.6
258.2
217.2
149.2
139.2
193.7
136.6
271.6
270.2
186.7
133.7
173.8
123.0
130.4
156.4
APPAREL AND UPKEEP - Continued
Apparel commodities — Continued
Public..........................................................................
297.2
333.2
333.8
334.9
336.8
336.7
339.3
287.7
328.2
328.6
329.4
331.0
331.0
333.3
Airline fare............................................................................................
Intercity bus fare ..................................................................................
Intracity mass transit ............................................................................
Taxi fare ..............................................................................................
Intercity train fare ..................................................................................
348.6
329.1
251.7
279.9
277.2
374.5
362.2
304.4
291.3
319.2
374.7
365.2
304.6
294.7
319.2
375.5
367.3
305.9
296.3
318.1
379.3
365.7
306.7
296.7
314.0
379.0
365.6
306.6
297.2
314.1
382.7
367.0
308.1
297.6
332.1
346.6
329.2
249.8
287.4
277.5
373.1
362.9
303.6
300.4
318.9
372.8
366.1
303.9
304.1
318.9
372.7
368.9
305.1
305.6
317.9
376.3
367.4
305.8
306.1
314.5
c 376.3
367.0
305.7
306.6
314.5
379.8
368.7
307.2
307.3
332.1
MEDICAL CARE ..................................................................................
287.0
308.2
310.2
313.4
316.2
318.8
321.7
289.1
307.1
309.1
312.0
314.9
317.4
320.2
Medical care commodities
182.4
193.1
194.9
195.9
197.7
200.0
202.4
183.4
193.8
195.4
196.4
198.3
200.6
203.0
Prescription drugs ................................................................................
Anti-infective drugs (12/77 = 100)..................................................
Tranquilizers and sedatives (12/77 = 100) ......................................
Circulatories and diuretics (12/77 = 100)........................................
Hormones, diabetic drugs, biologicals, and
prescription medical supplies (12/77 = 100) ................................
Pain and symptom control drugs (12/77 = 100) ..............................
Supplements, cough and cold preparations, and
respiratory agents (12/77 = 100)................................................
168.5
130.2
134.4
123.9
179.6
136.3
143.6
130.4
181.0
137.8
144.8
131.9
181.9
138.2
145.4
132.2
183.7
138.4
146.8
134.0
186.1
139.3
c 148.6
135.7
188.8
140.9
152.0
136.7
169.2
132.4
133.3
125.3
180.3
138.9
143.3
131.0
181.9
139.7
144.4
131.8
182.8
140.1
144.9
132.1
184.7
140 4
146.5
134.0
187.0
141.1
148.3
135.6
189.7
142.5
151.8
136.6
151.2
134.5
163.3
144.9
164,6
145.9
165.6
147.3
168.4
148.8
170.8
150.8
173.3
153.1
150.9
135.8
164.1
145.4
165.9
147.3
166.9
148.7
169.7
150.3
172.0
152.3
174.6
154.6
128.6
137.5
138.1
138.8
139.9
142.7
144.7
128.8
136.8
138.0
138.8
139.9
142.7
144.8
Nonprescription drugs and medical supplies (12/77 = 100) ....................
Eyeglasses (12/77 = 100) ............................................................
Internal and respiratory over-the-counter drugs ................................
Nonprescription medical equipment and supplies (12/77 = 100)........
130.9
125.1
205.9
126.2
137.8
127.8
218.6
133.7
139.2
128.4
221.6
134.6
139.9
128.3
222.8
135.9
141.1
128.9
225.1
137.1
142.5
129.5
228.1
138.1
143.9
130.1
231.1
138.9
131.9
123.4
208.0
128.2
138.5
126.7
220.2
134.7
139.7
127.1
222.8
135.2
140.4
127.1
223.9
136.6
141.6
127.6
226.4
137.7
143.2
128.1
229.6
138.8
144.6
128.7
232.5
139.7
Medical care services ........................................................................
309.8
333.7
335.7
339.4
342.4
345.1
348.0
312.2
332.0
334.0
337.5
340.6
343.0
345.8
Professional services ............................................................................
Physicians' services........................................................................
Dental services..............................................................................
Other professional services (12/77 = 100)......................................
271.7
292.2
257.1
132.6
288.4
311.3
272.3
139.5
290.0
313.0
273.9
140.3
292.0
315.5
275.8
140.3
294.2
318.8
276.8
141.5
295.8
320.3
278.6
142.4
297.8
322.2
281.1
142.5
276.2
297.9
262.2
131.3
288.2
314.1
270.1
136.2
290.3
316.0
272.3
137.2
292.2
318.6
274.1
137.2
294.3
321.7
274.9
138.5
295,9
323.2
276.6
139.4
297.8
325.2
279.2
139.4
Other medical care services..................................................................
Hospital and other medical services (12/77 = 100)..........................
Hospital room..........................................................................
Other hospital and medical care services (12/77 = 100)............
355.9
148.1
465.0
147.3
388.4
161.9
515.4
159.2
390.9
162.7
519.3
159.6
396.8
165.6
529.4
162.2
400.8
167.1
533.8
163.8
404.7
168.5
538.5
165.2
408.7
169.8
542.2
166.4
356.2
147.3
461.4
146 8
386.2
160.6
509.6
158.3
388.1
161.1
512.6
158.4
393.8
164.0
522.0
161.2
398.0
165.7
527.0
163.0
401.6
166.9
531.0
164.2
405.4
168.3
535.2
165.5
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
85
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW July 1982 • Current Labor Statistics: Consumer Prices
20.
Continued— Consumer Price Index— U.S. city average
[1967=100 unless otherwise specified]
Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (revised)
All Urban Consumers
General summary
1982
1981
1982
1981
Apr.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
Apr.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
ENTERTAINMENT................................................................................
219.2
226.8
227.3
229.2
231.2
232.8
233.9
217.0
224.3
224.4
226.1
228.1
229.5
230.5
Entertainment commodities................................................................
223.6
230.3
230.6
232.0
234.3
236.6
238.0
219.4
225.5
225.4
226.7
228.9
230.8
232.0
Reading materials (12/77 = 100)..........................................................
Newspapers ..................................................................................
Magazines, periodicals, and books (12/77 = 100)............................
134.1
262.5
134.8
139.8
267.6
143.9
139.6
267.7
143.5
142.9
270.5
149.0
144.1
273.1
149.9
146.1
276.4
152.4
146.8
280.1
151.6
134.1
262.5
134.8
139.3
267.5
143.7
139.1
267.6
143.4
142.1
270.1
148.8
143.3
272.8
149.7
145.3
276.0
152.2
146.1
279.7
151.4
Sporting goods and equipment (12/77 = 100)........................................
Sport vehicles (12/77 = 100) ........................................................
Indoor and warm weather sport equipment (12/77 = 100)................
Bicycles ........................................................................................
Other sporting goods and equipment (12/77 = 100) ........................
127.5
130.4
116.7
188.3
122.6
130.2
(’ )
119.6
194.3
126.7
130.0
132.1
119.9
193.9
126.2
129.5
c(’ )
120.1
194.8
125.3
131.5
133.9
119.6
197.3
127.0
132.3
135.4
119.9
197.6
125.6
132.9
136.1
120.4
198.9
126.3
120.9
120.0
115.4
189.7
121.1
122.8
122.4
120.2
117.9
195.2
126.3
122.4
(’ )
118.2
196.3
126.9
( ')
118.2
196.2
125.2
123.9
121.9
117.7
198.9
127.4
124.3
122.5
118.1
198.9
126.0
124.7
122.8
118.6
200.2
126.5
Toys, hobbies, and other entertainment (12/77 = 100)............................
Toys, hobbies, and music equipment (12/77 = 100) ........................
Photographic supplies and equipment (12/77 = 100)........................
Pet supplies and expenses (12/77 = 100) ......................................
127.8
126.2
125.4
132.4
131.3
129.7
125.5
138.3
132.0
130.1
125.2
140.2
132.2
130.8
125.2
139.7
133.2
131.7
126.9
140.6
134.5
133.4
128.3
140.8
135.4
134.1
129.8
141.9
127.2
124.0
126.7
133.2
130.8
126.7
127.5
140.1
130.9
126.9
126.3
140.9
131.2
127.7
126.3
140.5
132.3
128.6
127.9
141.6
133.5
130.2
129.5
141.7
134.3
130.7
131.0
142.7
Entertainment services ......................................................................
213.4
222.3
223.0
225.5
227.1
227.8
228.5
213.9
223.4
223.9
226.1
227.8
228.4
229.2
Fees for participant sports (12/77 = 100)..............................................
Admissions (12/77 = 100)....................................................................
Other entertainment services (12/77 = 100)..........................................
130.7
124.5
121.1
137.3
128.9
123.4
137.6
129.7
123.7
139.6
131.2
124.2
140.9
131.6
125.0
141.9
131.2
125.1
142.0
132.2
125.2
130.2
124.7
122.4
139.1
128.3
124.1
139.3
128.7
124.3
141.2
130.1
124.7
142.5
130.6
125.9
143.5
130.3
125.9
143.7
131.2
125.9
OTHER GOODS AND SERVICES..........................................................
229.9
245.9
246.7
248.4
250.3
252.2
253.8
227.9
242.5
243.5
245.0
247.1
249.3
250.9
Tobacco products ..............................................................................
213.3
226.2
226.8
227.1
230.7
234.1
235.1
213.2
225.4
225.9
226.2
229.8
233.2
234.0
Cigarettes............................................................................................
Other tobacco products and smoking accessories (12/77 = 100)............
215.5
129.6
228.9
134.7
229.7
134.4
230.0
134.7
233.6
136.8
237.3
138.1
238.0
139.9
215.5
130.0
228.1
135.0
228.7
134.7
229.1
135.0
232.7
136.9
236.3
138.2
236.9
140.1
Personal care ....................................................................................
228.7
237.7
239.1
240.9
242.3
243.7
245.9
226.4
235.5
237.1
238.8
240.4
241.8
244.1
Toilet goods and personal care appliances..............................................
Products for the hair, hairpieces, and wigs (12/77 = 100) ................
Dental and shaving products (12/77 = 100) .....................................
Cosmetics, bath and nail preparations, manicure
and eye makeup implements (12/77 = 100) ................................
Other toilet goods and small personal care appliances (12/77 = 100)
223.9
131.9
136.6
232.5
135.4
140.5
234.7
136.5
141.2
2364
137.2
144.0
238.5
138.4
145.6
240.6
140.8
148.0
243.8
142.9
149.0
222.5
128.8
135.1
233.1
133.3
139.3
235.4
135.8
139.8
236.9
136.4
142.6
239.2
137.8
144.2
241.5
140.0
146.6
244.7
142.3
147.6
125.3
128.4
131.8
134.3
133.2
136.0
134.1
135.9
135.0
137.0
135.1
137.4
136.5
140.3
124.4
131.3
132.2
139.1
133.7
139.1
134.5
138.9
135.8
140.2
136.1
140.7
137.5
143.5
Personal care services..........................................................................
Beauty parlor services for women....................................................
Haircuts and other barber shop services for men (12/77 = 100) . . . .
233.7
236.0
129.9
243.1
244.8
135.9
243.9
245.2
136.8
245.7
246.9
138.0
246.5
247.7
138.4
247.3
248.9
138.4
248.7
250.7
138.8
230.5
231.7
129.1
238.1
237.8
134.9
239.2
238.8
135.7
241.0
240.5
136.8
241.8
241.3
137.2
242.6
242.5
137.2
244.0
244.3
137.6
Personal and educational expenses ..................................................
256.2
284.9
285.1
288.1
289.2
290.4
291.9
257.1
285.6
285.9
288.9
290.2
291.7
293.5
Scnoolbooks and supplies ....................................................................
Personal and educational services..........................................................
Tuition and other school fees ..........................................................
College tuition (12/77 = 100) ..................................................
Elementary and high school tuition (12/77 = 100) ....................
Personal expenses (12/77 = 100)..................................................
230.8
262.4
132.8
132.3
134.4
141.8
254.6
292.1
149.1
148.3
152.0
152.8
254.5
292.3
149.1
148.3
152.0
153.4
260.7
294.8
150.5
149.9
152.1
154.3
262.9
295.8
150.6
150.1
152.2
156.1
263.3
297.1
151.1
150.7
152.2
157.4
263.8
298.7
151.4
151.0
152.2
160.9
234.6
262.9
133.0
132.3
134.4
141.1
258.3
292.5
149.4
148.1
152.7
152.1
258.5
292.8
149.4
148.1
152.7
152.7
264.8
295.2
150.7
149.6
152.8
153.7
267.1
296.3
150.9
149.8
152.9
155.3
267.5
298.0
151.7
150.9
152.9
156.7
268.0
300.0
152.0
151.3
152.9
160.5
413.2
378.1
267.9
323.1
403.9
422.2
292.6
339.6
402.8
423.1
293.9
341.3
400.5
423.9
297.7
343.0
393.9
424.8
299.1
344,0
379.3
420.9
302.7
344.0
362.6
426.3
305.1
347.5
414.5
377.6
266.1
321.1
405.1
420.9
291.5
339.9
404.0
422.1
292.6
341.5
401.8
422.8
296.4
343.3
395.3
423.5
297.7
344.2
380.6
419.9
301.5
344.0
363.7
425.9
304.0
348.2
Special indexes:
Gasoline, motor oil, coolant, and other products......................................
Insurance and finance ..........................................................................
Utilities and public transportation............................................................
Housekeeping and home maintenance services ......................................
' Not available.
Digitized86
for FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
c=corrected.
21. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Cross classification of region and population size ckiss by expenditure
category and commodity and service group
[December 1977 = 100]
Size class A
(1.25 million or more)
Category and group
Feb.
Apr.
Dec.
Feb.
Dec.
Apr.
1982
1981
1982
1981
1982
1981
1982
1981
Dec.
Size class D
(75,000 or less)
Size class C
(75,000-385,000)
Size class B
(385,000-1.250 million)
Feb.
Apr.
Dec.
Feb.
Apr.
Northeast
EXPENDITURE CATEGORY
All items ............................................................................................................
Food and beverages ....................................................................................
Housing ......................................................................................................
Appare1and upkeep ....................................................................................
Transportation..............................................................................................
Medical care................................................................................................
Entertainment ..............................................................................................
Other goods and services ............................................................................
144.2
139.6
148.0
117.5
157.9
142.0
131.9
135.4
144.2
143.3
146.0
117.0
156.5
145.1
133.3
136.9
143.6
143 7
144.5
119.1
153.7
146.4
135.5
139 0
152.9
139.6
161.9
123.1
165.4
146.6
131.0
138.7
150.7
142.7
155.7
120.5
164.2
147.0
132.4
140.6
150.0
142.2
155.3
122.5
160.0
148.9
136.2
141.1
159.2
142.8
176.3
125.9
162.7
146.3
133.7
142.0
158.1
145.7
172.5
123.1
161.6
148.7
136.1
142.9
158.6
147.4
173.3
127.4
158.6
150.4
135.8
145.3
150.7
137.0
159.3
125.4
161.8
143.0
134.3
138.5
151.4
140.4
159.5
119.9
161.7
144.8
137.6
140.6
151.9
140.4
160.5
125.1
158.1
151.5
139.0
142.9
COMMODITY AND SERVICE GROUP
Commodities......................................................................................................
Commodities less food and beverages ..........................................................
Services ............................................................................................................
141.8
143.2
147.3
142.1
141.4
146.9
140.8
139 0
147.4
149.6
154.5
158.0
147.9
150.5
155.1
146.6
148.7
155.4
151.1
154.9
172.5
150.1
152.2
171.0
149.6
150.6
173.4
147.2
152.1
156.1
147.6
151.0
157.3
146.5
149.4
160.4
North Central region
EXPENDITURE CATEGORY
Entertainment ..............................................................................................
Other goods and services ............................................................................
152.6
139.8
163.3
113.7
162.7
144.6
134.1
137.0
153.6
141.6
164.9
112.7
161.1
148.4
137.1
138.8
155.2
141.9
168.8
114.8
158.7
150.9
137.0
140.3
149.2
139.3
153.8
128.0
160.8
146.8
124.4
142.9
151.9
140.8
159.9
121.1
159.7
150.8
126.4
145.1
155.1
141.7
167.2
122.7
156.9
152.8
130.3
146,5
147.4
140.7
150.0
122.4
162.3
147.7
132.6
135.6
149.1
143.1
152.7
121.8
161.0
150.3
136.1
137.3
151.2
143.1
157.2
125.8
158.4
153.8
138.1
139.0
147.6
143.4
149.1
123.6
160.1
151.2
129.2
141.7
151.0
144.7
155.5
119.5
160.3
154.5
132.5
144.6
153.3
146.2
160.7
123.5
157.2
157.0
130.9
146.4
COMMODITY AND SERVICE GROUP
Commodities......................................................................................................
Commodities less food and beverages ..........................................................
Services ............................................................................................................
145.1
147.6
163.7
145.2
146.9
166.1
145.4
147.0
169.8
142.9
144.4
159.5
145.4
147.3
162.6
146.4
148.3
169.3
142.2
142.8
156.1
143.5
143.6
158.4
144.3
144.8
162.4
140.7
139.5
158.7
142.1
141.0
165.0
143.7
142.6
168.7
Food and beverages ....................................................................................
Apparel and upkeep ....................................................................................
South
EXPENDITURE CATEGORY
Other goods and services ............................................................................
152.0
141.4
160.3
123.5
161.9
143.2
127.4
139.7
152.6
144.2
160.2
122.6
161.5
145.9
129.3
141.2
152.9
145.0
161,1
125.6
157.5
149.5
130.1
142.8
155.9
141.3
166.7
123.7
164.1
147.6
137.1
139.5
157.2
144.8
168.3
121.1
162.8
150.5
140.0
140.7
155.7
144.9
165.2
124.3
159.7
152.3
141.2
142.4
152.3
141.9
159.7
118.2
162.3
153.0
136.4
139.9
154.0
144.1
162.7
117.0
160.7
155.4
140.4
142.0
152.3
144.0
159.1
120.2
157.1
160.1
141.1
143.7
150.8
143.4
156.2
110.4
161.6
160.1
138.4
140.5
152.3
146.1
158.8
105.7
159.9
162.5
140.4
147.9
153.5
145.9
161.5
111.1
155.8
165.1
145.7
150.2
COMMODITY AND SERVICE GROUP
Commodities......................................................................................................
Commodities less food and beverages ..........................................................
Services ............................................................................................................
145.9
147.9
160.5
146.8
148.0
160.7
146.3
146.9
162.1
147.5
150.1
168.6
148.4
149.9
170.4
147.6
148.8
167.8
145.3
146.7
163.1
146.0
146.8
166.3
144.3
144.5
164.5
145.1
145.8
159.5
145.0
144.6
163.3
146.0
146.0
164.8
Food and beverages ....................................................................................
Apparel and upkeep ....................................................................................
West
EXPENDITURE CATEGORY
Food and beverages ....................................................................................
Apparel and upkeep ....................................................................................
Entertainment ..............................................................................................
Other goods and services ............................................................................
156.1
140.8
165.5
121.9
162.9
155.7
133.6
141.0
157.9
143.9
167.2
121.7
164.2
157.8
135.1
144.5
158.5
144.5
168.1
120.6
162.9
160.7
137.7
147.5
155.1
145.4
161.6
127.1
165.0
151.3
133.9
142.8
157.1
147.9
164.9
126.4
163.6
153.7
135.5
145.3
157.0
147.6
164.8
126.6
161.7
156.0
136.8
148.9
149.4
140.1
153.8
117.1
162.8
151.1
129.4
136.8
150.2
143.4
154.4
118.8
160.9
154.8
130.4
137.1
151.1
143.5
156.3
119.7
158.3
157.3
133.9
139.5
149.1
145.8
146.1
135.6
164.6
152.8
145.6
148.0
153.3
148.1
153,9
131.9
164.5
157.9
147.8
147.6
157.9
148.5
163.5
140.4
160.5
162.4
148.9
149.8
144.9
146.6
170.9
146.0
146.9
173.7
145.5
145.9
175.9
147.2
148.0
166.0
148.4
148.6
169.1
148.1
148.3
169.3
143.7
145.1
157.5
145.2
145.9
157.3
146.4
147.5
157.9
145.5
145.4
154.6
147.5
147.3
161.8
148.9
149.1
171-2
COMMODITY AND SERVICE GROUP
Commodities less food and beverages ..........................................................
Services .............................................................................................................
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
87
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW July 1982 • Current Labor Statistics: Consumer Prices
22.
Consumer Price Index— U.S. city average, and selected areas
[1967=100 unless otherwise specified]
Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (revised)
All Urban Consumers
Area1
U.S. city average2 ..............................................................
Anchorage, Alaska (10/67=100) ........................................
Atlanta. Ga...........................................................................
Baltimore, Md.......................................................................
Boston, Mass........................................................................
Buffalo, N.Y..........................................................................
1981
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
Apr.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
266.8
280.7
281.5
282.5
283.4
283.1
284.3
266.8
280.4
281.1
282.1
282.9
282.5
283.7
280.2
268.8
253.7
265.9
253.0
282.2
280.7
274.2
254.6
263.7
Detroit, Mich.........................................................................
Honolulu, Hawaii ................................................................
Houston, Tex........................................................................
Kansas City, Mo.-Kansas ....................................................
Los Angeles-Long Beach, Anaheim, Calif................................
272.4
250.0
286.4
265.4
265.5
273.9
281.8
153.6
287.5
266.5
255.4
261.0
265.7
San Frandsco-Oakland, Calif.................................................
Seattle-Everett, Wash...........................................................
Washington, D.C.-Md.-Va.......................................................
270.3
267.8
272.2
274.1
298.7
267.9
274.9
281.8
276.4
284.9
285.9
293.6
280.8
285.8
277.8
262.2
304.1
276.0
285.6
268.5
272.5
275.7
306.0
269.0
275.5
278.6
252.7
280.2
263.0
286.5
297.2
272.1
276.9
286.6
267.4
267.2
274.7
295.8
262.7
277.3
279.0
283.7
263.8
304.9
274.0
286.8
268.0
250.2
283.1
264.3
269.1
274.4
285.5
154.7
291.5
301.7
268.2
267.3
254.8
275.1
275.3
261.5
267.3
266.9
275.2
274.5
298.3
266.9
274.1
282.6
298.8
270.9
277.8
289.8
267.5
274.5
275.1
285.7
292.7
274.8
263.2
300.3
274.1
289.4
275.1
290.4
280.3
264.7
302.1
272.1
290.5
156.4
292.5
305.3
267.8
275.1
280.0
265.9
268.4
274.3
301.2
266.5
274.5
276.7
283.9
279.3
313.9
294.9
291.9
281.8
280.0
315.0
285.5
277.1
317.4
292.7
285.7
279.3
256.4
276.5
287.2
285.0
289.8
156.4
295.3
276.3
273.0
315.1
293.4
278.8
275.4
310.5
275.1
259.3
298.8
272.0
286.1
282.9
282.2
269.8
258.0
275.9
288.4
281.2
291.0
276.4
254.5
282.7
282.3
273.4
302.8
286.7
280.7
319.0
295.9
278.0
'The areas listed include not only the central city but the entire portion of the Standard Metropolitan
Statistical Area, as defined for the 1970 Census of Population, except that the Standard Consolidated
258.3
155.1
289.3
288.4
278.4
323.1
294.0
278.2
248.6
284.1
280.9
274.3
309.2
155.2
291.3
278.7
273.8
321.3
289.2
275.5
274.9
305.4
278.3
258.3
302.7
273.5
282.3
249.3
281.9
269.8
259.9
275.4
285.7
281.6
295.1
297.8
279.6
260.0
279.8
282.1
274.0
264.3
277.0
276.6
272.0
279.6
Philadelphia, Pa.-N.J.............................................................
Pittsburgh, Pa.......................................................................
Portland, Oreg.-Wash............................................................
St. Louis, Mo.-lll....................................................................
San Diego, Calif....................................................................
88
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
1982
Apr.
Chicago, lll.-Northwestern Ind................................................
Cincinnati, Ohio-Ky.-Ind.........................................................
Cleveland, O hio..................................................................
Dallas-Ft. Worth, Tex............................................................
Denver-Boulder, Colo............................................................
Miami, Fla. (11/77-100) ....................................................
Milwaukee, Wis.....................................................................
Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minn.-Wis..............................................
New York, N.Y.-Northeastern N.J...........................................
Northeast, Pa. (Scranton)....................................................
1981
1982
297.8
289.6
283.8
Area is used for New York and Chicago.
2Average of 85 cities.
v
RESEARCH LIB R A R Y
Federal Reserve Bank
of S t. Louis
23.
Producer Price Indexes, by stage of processing
[1967 = 100]
Commodity grouping
Annual
average
1981
1981
May
June
July
Aug.
1982
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.’
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
FINISHED GOODS
Finished goods....................................................................
269.8
269.6
270.5
271.8
271.5
271.5
274.3
274.7
275.4
' 277.9
277.4
276.9
276.9
277.7
Finished consumer goods..............................................
Finished consumer foods............................................
Crude....................................................................
Processed ............................................................
Nondurable goods less foods ....................................
Durable gooes ..........................................................
Consumer nondurable goods less food and energy . . . .
Capital equipment ........................................................
271.2
253.5
263.6
250.6
319.4
218.5
208.6
264.3
271.5
252.8
263.1
249.8
321.0
218.1
207.7
262.5
272.3
253.8
258.9
251.3
322.0
218.2
208.4
263.8
273.5
257.6
262.7
255.0
322.5
218.1
209.5
265.4
273.0
256.3
256.9
254.2
322.1
218.3
210.4
265.8
273.1
256.2
253.5
254.4
324.2
215.8
211.8
265.3
275.1
254.0
253.8
252.0
324.3
224.5
212.6
271.5
275.2
252.7
260.0
249.9
325.4
224.7
213.6
273.0
275.8
252.9
273.9
249.0
326.3
225.4
213.9
274.1
r 278.3
256.4
r 280.6
'252.1
'329.3
'226.2
'217.4
'276.2
278.1
258.2
282.0
253.9
329.3
223.5
218.8
274.8
277.2
257.1
262.9
254.4
328.0
223.5
219.6
275.7
276.9
259.8
266.1
257.1
324.9
223.8
221.4
277.1
277.6
262.3
259.4
260.4
324.1
224.7
222.9
278.3
INTERMEDIATE MATERIALS
Intermediate materials, supplies, and components..................
306.0
306.7
307.2
308.5
310.1
309.7
309.4
3090
309.4
'311.0
311.3
310.9
310.1
309.8
Materials and components for manufacturing..................
Materials for food manufacturing ................................
Materials for nondurable manufacturing ......................
Materials for durable manufacturing............................
Components for manufacturing ..................................
286.2
260.9
285.9
312.2
259.2
285.1
259.0
287.0
311.2
256.3
285.8
262.4
287.7
310.7
257.3
287.9
260.5
289.2
314.4
259.5
289.8
261.0
291.0
316.0
261.8
290.2
254.6
291.2
317.1
263.8
290.2
250.9
290.9
316.7
265.1
289.5
246.8
289.4
314.9
266.9
289.3
245.6
288.8
314.0
267.8
'290.4
'250.7
'289.0
'313.6
'269.8
291.3
254.3
289.5
313.5
271.1
290.8
252.0
289.5
311.2
272.0
290.9
254.3
288.1
311.2
272.9
291.5
260.0
288.1
310.6
273.8
Materials and components for construction ....................
287.5
288.5
289.6
290.4
290.7
290.0
290.1
290.2
291.1
'292.0
292.8
293.3
293.8
293.4
Processed fuels and lubricants ......................................
Manufacturing industries ............................................
Nonmanufacturing industries ......................................
595.0
498.2
680.5
608.7
510.7
695.2
605.7
505.4
694.3
602.0
500.3
692.0
607.8
508.3
695.6
601.4
500.5
690.5
596.9
497.5
684.7
595.1
496.4
682.2
598.1
499.0
685.6
'604.4
'505.9
'691.3
597.1
498.7
683.9
593.5
497.1
678.4
579.8
487.6
660.9
569.9
482.3
646.7
Containers....................................................................
276.2
276.4
277.2
278.8
280.3
280.6
280.9
280.6
280.2
'282.5
285.2
286.5
287.4
287.1
Supplies ......................................................................
Manufacturing industries ............................................
Nonmanufacturing industries ......................................
Feeds ....................................................................
Other supplies........................................................
263.9
253.2
269.6
230.4
276.4
264.0
252.3
270.2
242.9
273.8
264.6
253.4
270.5
235.4
276.3
266.0
255.0
272.0
232.8
278.7
266.1
256.0
271.6
229.1
279.3
266.1
256.8
271.1
221.3
280.7
266.6
258.2
271.2
215.9
282.3
267.2
259.2
271.6
212.0
283.7
268.3
261.0
272.4
214.6
284.1
269.8
'262.6
'273.8
'214.8
'285.7
270.7
263.5
274.8
212.7
287.6
270.9
264.8
274.4
208.8
288.1
272.3
265.6
276.0
212.9
289.1
273.6
267.2
277.2
214.2
290.2
CRUDE MATERIALS
Crude materials for further processing..................................
329.1
334.4
335.4
337.3
333.0
327.4
319.9
313.9
311.5
'318.4
321.5
319.9
322.8
328.1
Foodstuffs and feedstuffs..............................................
257.4
260.6
264.3
267.2
261.8
253.4
245.7
238.3
233.7
'242.6
248.3
247.9
254.3
262.3
Nonfood materials ........................................................
481.6
492.4
487.4
487.2
485.3
486.0
479.2
476.3
478.6
'481.5
479.3
475.0
470.4
470.4
Nonfood materials except fuel ....................................
Manufacturing industries..........................................
Construction ..........................................................
413.9
429.6
262.4
428.3
445.5
261.7
418.1
434.2
262.6
413.1
428.7
262.6
413.9
429.6
263.1
410.2
425.4
263.6
404.1
418.6
264.7
397.8
411.7
264.8
396.2
409.8
265.2
'399.5
413.2
'267.6
395.1
407.6
272.1
387.4
398.5
275.1
379.0
389.0
275.3
376.6
386.4
274.0
Crude fuel ................................................................
Manufacturing industries..........................................
Nonmanufacturing industries....................................
676.5
865.4
674.3
738.4
850.6
662.2
759.2
877.2
678.5
781.2
902.6
698.1
766.7
883.0
687.8
788.7
911.4
704.8
779.0
898.4
697.8
792.5
915.8
708.2
813.0
942.5
724.0
'812.9
'940.3
'725.6
823.5
953.4
734.4
837.7
972.8
744.5
853.7
992.4
757.6
866.1
1,008.2
767.4
Finished goods excluding foods ............................................
Finished consumer goods excluding foods ......................
Finished consumer goods less energy............................
273.2
276.3
233.9
273.3
277.0
232.8
274.1
277.7
233.4
274.7
277.9
235.0
274.6
277.7
235.0
274.7
277.9
234.9
279.1
281.6
237.2
280.0
282.4
237.2
2809
283.2
237.6
'283.0
'285.2
'240.5
281.8
284.1
240.8
281.5
283.3
240.7
280.6
281.7
242.4
280.9
281.6
244.1
Intermediate materials less foods and feeds..........................
Intermediate materials less energy ................................
310.1
285.2
310.7
284.7
311.2
285.5
312.7
287.2
314.5
288.5
314.6
288.7
314.6
288.8
314.5
288.5
314.9
288.7
'316.4
'289.9
316.6
290.9
316.3
290.7
315.3
291.2
314.6
291.7
Intermediate foods and feeds ..............................................
250.7
253.1
253.2
251.1
250.2
243.5
239.3
235.2
235.2
'238.8
240.6
237.8
240.7
245.0
Crude materials less agricultural products ............................
Crude materials less energy..........................................
545.8
254.0
557.5
257.9
551.3
2597
550.6
261.8
549.1
258.0
551.4
250.4
543.4
243.2
540.7
235.8
543.5
231.6
'546.1
'239.1
543.9
243.4
538.2
242.8
532.2
247.3
531.7
252.5
SPECIAL GROUPINGS
' Data for January 1982 have been revised to reflect the availability of late reports and corrections
by respondents. All data are subject to revision 4 months after original publication.
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
r=revised,
89
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW July 1982 • Current Labor Statistics: Producer Prices
24.
Producer Price Indexes, by commodity groupings
[1967 =-100 unless otherwise specified]
Code
Annual
1981
Commodity group and subgroup
1982
1981
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.1
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
All commodities ............................
All commodities (1957-59 = 100) .
293.4
311.3
294.1
312.0
294.8
312.8
296.2
314.3
296.4
314.5
295.7
313.7
296.1
314.2
295.5
313.5
295.8
313.8
r298.:
r 316.5
298.5
316.7
297.9
316.1
297.9
316.1
298.6
316.8
Farm products and processed foods and feeds
Industrial commodities..............
251.5
304.1
252.9
304.7
254.3
305.1
256.8
306.2
254.2
307.2
250.3
307.4
246.0
309.0
242.5
309.3
241.0
310.0
' 246.C
'311.6
248.5
311.4
247.5
311.0
251.4
309.9
255.6
309.5
01
01-1
01-2
01-3
01-4
01-5
01-6
01-7
01-8
01-9
FARM PRODUCTS AND PROCESSED FOODS
AND FEEDS
Farm products ..........................
Fresh and dried fruits and vegetables ........
Grains..................................
Livestock ..........................
Live poultry......................................
Plant and animal fibers....................
Fluid milk ................................
Eggs........................................................................................
Hay, hayseeds, and oilseeds ....................
Other farm products ....................
254.9
267.0
248.4
248.0
201.2
242.0
287,4
187.1
274.1
274.3
259.6
275.3
257.7
251.8
207.2
258.3
283.6
165.0
299.0
259.7
260.7
263.3
257.1
263.0
210.0
259.6
285.0
174.6
285.3
242.7
263.3
265.6
257.4
266.5
215.3
251.3
284.3
185.1
290.0
250.2
257.9
258.1
242.7
262.0
210.3
232.5
285.0
180.7
284.3
263.9
251.1
252.8
227.0
257.3
196.7
206.5
287.3
193.2
267.2
268.9
243.1
248.8
227.6
244.5
185.7
211.7
294.3
193.8
230.4
263.3
237.4
254.0
226.5
231.1
175.0
198.5
288.2
209.7
221.1
273.1
234.6
280.5
213.6
225.0
171.4
188.4
286.7
195.5
218.8
280.2
'242.2
'289.2
225.2
236.8
186.8
198.2
287.6
187.0
218.4
280.1
247.1
289.3
223.2
251.2
197.3
193.6
285.8
200.6
217.6
273.7
244.6
256.4
220.9
255.6
197.7
199.7
282.5
204.0
213.7
273.0
250.6
266.7
226.0
267.6
186.2
207.4
280.3
192.1
222.8
274.2
256.1
270.7
228.2
282.9
192.7
214.1
278.8
1643
224.3
273.9
02
02-1
02-2
02-3
02-4
02-5
02-6
02-7
02-8
02-9
Processed foods and feeds..............
Cereal and bakery products..............
Meats, poultry, and fish ..................................
Dairy products......................................
Processed fruits and vegetables................
Sugar and confectionery ......................
Beverages and beverage materials........................
Fats and o ils ................................
Miscellaneous processed foods ........
Prepared animal feeds..........................
248.7
255.5
246.2
245.7
261.1
276.8
247.5
227.5
250.1
230.3
248.2
256.3
245.2
244.6
259.4
262.8
247.6
228.2
251.1
241.0
249.9
256.4
248.6
245.2
262.5
274.8
248.1
227.3
251.5
234.3
252.2
258.3
257.1
245.1
265.9
266.0
249.0
234.8
252.2
232.2
251.2
257.7
254.4
245.3
267.3
267.3
249.4
229.5
252.1
228.9
248.9
258.5
253.3
245.5
270.0
246.8
249.1
224.3
253.0
222.9
246.6
256.9
246.6
246.8
271.7
246.7
250.0
223.4
249.9
218.1
244.3
256.5
240.0
246.9
270.5
244.1
251.4
221.5
250.1
214.7
243.6
255.1
236.1
247.2
271.8
247.6
251.9
219.1
250.1
217.2
'247.1
256.6
'243.7
247.7
'273.2
'256.8
'253.9
'216.6
'251.0
'217.4
248.3
255.3
247.4
248.0
274.7
260.3
254.2
218.1
250.9
215.4
248.1
254.2
249.7
248.0
275.7
255.0
255.7
214.1
249.6
212.0
250.8
253.8
257.1
248.4
274.5
256.4
256.6
218.6
249.5
216.1
254.4
253.9
267.1
248.5
2734
265 8
256.7
222.2
248.0
217.4
03
03-1
03-2
03-3
03-4
03-81
03-82
Textile products and apparel ..................
Synthetic fibers (12/75 = 100)..............
Processed yams and threads (12/75 = 100) .
Gray fabrics (12/75 = 100)................................
Finished fabrics (12/75 = 100) . ..........
Apparel....................................
Textile housefurnishings..........................
199.6
156.7
137.8
146.7
125.2
185.5
228.2
199.2
156.4
138.6
145.8
125.7
185.2
224.0
200.1
157.9
139.3
147.4
125.6
186.2
223.9
201.3
159.7
140.3
148.2
126.0
187.2
227.1
202.4
161.2
142.0
149.0
126.8
187.8
228.8
202.9
161.0
142.3
149.1
126.8
188.0
232.2
204.0
162.7
144.4
148.0
126.7
189.9
233.0
203.6
161.6
140.3
147.4
126.5
190.8
233.4
203.4
161.5
139.6
147.2
125.6
191.0
233.6
'205.0
'162.9
'139.2
'148.2
'126.8
'192.7
'237.6
204.2
164.1
134.9
147.4
126.9
191.0
245.5
205.0
163.8
140.8
147.1
125.7
191.7
246.2
204.7
162.1
140.4
145.8
125.5
192.2
246.5
205.1
164.3
141 0
145.5
125.4
192 7
246.4
04
04-2
04-4
Hides, skins, leather, and related products . . .
Leather ..................................
Footwear ........................................
Other leather and related products..........
261.5
319.5
241.2
243.5
263.7
330.0
241.4
244.2
261.6
321.0
241.5
244.3
261.1
319.0
242.4
242.9
261.3
313.7
242.5
245.1
261.7
313.2
242.9
245.0
260.0
313.7
239.6
245.0
259.8
311.3
239.8
245.4
260.7
312.3
240.1
245.4
'261.8
'319.0
'238.9
'247.5
263.3
317.8
239.2
253.3
262.7
315.5
240.6
253.3
264.4
313.2
243.7
253.2
263.4
309.5
242.5
253.2
05
05-1
05-2
05—
3
05-4
05-61
05-7
Fuels and related products and pow er..................
C oal............................................
Coke ......................................
Gas fuels2 ..................................
Electric power..............................
Crude petroleum3 ..............................
Petroleum products, refined4 ............
694.4
497.3
456.5
939.8
366.8
803.6
805.8
709.0
487.3
467.9
933.9
360.4
839.9
835.3
707.6
491.7
469.7
954.6
366.6
815.9
828.1
704.9
505.5
469.7
969.4
374.6
798.9
816.3
704.3
507.0
469.7
949.3
3858
796.8
813.4
703.5
510.2
469.7
976.6
383.8
796.8
806.1
698.1
510.8
469.7
965.6
378.4
788.2
802.3
698.1
512.7
469.7
983.0
378.3
785.9
798.3
702.5
515.2
469.7
1,003.7
384.2
787.2
798.6
'705.1
'525.3
'469.7
'987.9
'392.8
'787.2
'801.9
697.6
529.1
470.3
987.9
392.6
770.4
789.4
690.1
527.0
468.1
993.8
404.1
745.0
770.5
671.2
532.5
468.1
996.6
406.7
718.0
733.4
661.9
534.4
468.2
1,003.4
405.5
7182
712.7
06
06-1
06-21
06-22
06-3
06-4
06-5
06-6
06-7
Chemicals and allied products..........
Industrial chemicals5 ......................
Prepared paint..................................
Paint materials ....................
Drugs and pharmaceuticals ....................
Fats and oils, inedible ................
Agricultural chemicals and chemical products ..............
Plastic resins and materials ........................
Other chemicals and allied products ..
287.8
363.8
249.9
300.2
193.4
295.6
284.8
289.2
254.4
288.6
368.5
250.0
300.3
192.4
312.1
279.1
287.9
254.8
290.5
369.7
250.0
300.8
193.2
303.1
288.9
290.0
256.3
291.3
370.4
250.7
304.5
195.5
290.9
288.9
295.9
254.8
293.3
371.5
250.7
308.5
195.0
305.6
293.4
297.5
257.3
293.3
371.8
250.7
308.0
197.8
285.6
292.6
296.8
257.4
292.4
367.9
250.7
308.1
198.5
277.7
293.1
299.5
256.9
292.0
363.7
254.5
308.3
198.2
282.5
295.7
293.2
259.9
291.8
362.8
256.4
305.8
198.9
280.4
294.9
294.2
260.0
'292.9
'362.9
'258.9
'306.6
'202.2
272.8
'296.8
'286.1
'263.8
294.5
362.8
259.3
308.6
203.0
274.2
297.9
295.9
265.0
294.6
362.6
259.3
306.8
204.8
290.1
297.0
286.8
267.7
294.5
359.6
259.3
306.8
208.6
282.6
296.3
286 1
269.0
296.2
358.1
265.1
306 2
209 4
288 4
294 9
285 4
275.9
07
07-1
07-11
07-12
07-13
07-2
Rubber and plastic products ..................
Rubber and rubber products........
Crude rubber ........................
Tires and tubes........................
Miscellaneous rubber products....................
Plastic products (6/78 = 100) ..........................
232.8
256.7
281.7
250.9
252.4
128.4
231.8
254.4
283.2
251.2
245.7
128.6
233.4
256.8
285.2
251.2
250.9
129.1
232.1
254.7
284.2
246.8
251.4
128.7
234.1
256.9
284.7
249.9
253.1
129.8
235.7
260.3
283.1
256.5
253.9
129.9
237.3
262.9
279.8
257.1
261.1
130.3
238.0
264.4
279.0
255.9
266.7
130.3
238.3
264.6
280.8
255.4
267.2
130.6
'237.3
'262.5
281.8
'253.6
'263.8
130.5
241.0
269.7
282.1
259.6
274.9
130.9
241.8
269.3
282.8
256.3
278.1
132.0
241.9
268.7
283.2
254.4
278.8
132.4
242 9
271.2
283.6
2550
284 6
132.3
08
08-1
08-2
08-3
08-4
-umber and wood products........................
Lumber................................
Millwork ..................................
Plywood ................
Other wood products..........................
292.8
325.2
273.4
245.7
239.2
298.4
336.3
274.8
248.3
238.2
298.1
335.8
272.2
251.5
239.8
296.5
332.4
273.6
247.8
240.7
294.5
329.9
272.3
245.6
239.8
289.3
320.2
271.4
240.8
240.5
284.3
311.7
271.3
234.3
239.9
282.1
306.6
271.8
233.5
239.3
285.4
309.9
273.7
239.7
239.4
'285.5
'310.0
'277.1
'237.4
'238.2
285.4
308.3
278.4
235.7
239.8
285.4
308.1
276.4
237.1
239.6
286.1
311.5
276.4
234.1
237.7
283.9
309.2
275.8
230.6
237.3
INDUSTRIAL COMMODITIES
See footnotes at end of table.
90
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
24.
Continued— Producer Price Indexes, by commodity groupings
[1967=100 unless otherwise specified]
Code
Commodity group and subgroup
INDUSTRIAL COMMODITIES
Annual
average
1980
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.1
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
1981
1982
Continued
09
09-1
09-11
09-12
09-13
09-14
09-15
09-2
Pulp, paper, and allied products....................................................
Pulp, paper, and products, excluding building paper and board . . .
Woodpulp................................................................................
Wastepaper ............................................................................
Paper ......................................................................................
Paperboard ..............................................................................
Converted paper and paperboard products................................
Building paper and board..........................................................
273.7
271.0
398.1
175.7
280.0
258.2
259.0
231.3
272.1
269.9
394.2
182.7
275.9
258.8
258.8
237.3
272.9
271.2
394.2
182.9
278.5
259.2
259.9
237.4
274.9
272.3
394.2
182.1
279.7
259.4
261.2
235.5
275.9
273.7
394.2
182.1
282.1
260.6
262.4
234.2
277.8
274.8
394.2
178.5
2859
261.6
262.8
234.2
279.2
275.7
402.3
165.1
287.8
261.7
263.2
233.3
280.4
275.8
413.7
144.5
287.4
261.6
263.1
232.1
281.0
275.6
413.7
143.4
287.2
260.0
263.2
230.3
'285.5
276.1
'410.3
135.2
'289.2
259.7
263.9
'233.8
285.4
277.0
412.8
128.8
289.5
261.4
264.9
231.1
286.3
277.3
414.1
129.2
289.5
261.1
265.5
237.5
287.9
276.4
392.3
128.1
291.7
261.2
265.0
235.5
289.1
275.4
398.2
121.5
288.8
258.8
264.7
239.5
10
10-1
10-13
10-2
10-3
10-4
10-5
10-6
10-7
10-8
Metals and metal products ..........................................................
Iron anc steel ..........................................................................
Steel mill products....................................................................
Nonferrous metals....................................................................
Metal containers ......................................................................
Hardware ................................................................................
Plumbing fixtures and brass fittings............................................
Heating equipment....................................................................
Fabricated structural metal products..........................................
Miscellaneous metal products....................................................
300.4
333.8
337.6
286.0
315.9
262.4
267.4
223.9
295.4
270.8
299.1
330.4
331.8
287.7
314.1
259.4
266.2
222.3
294.0
269.7
298.4
330.1
332.2
284.5
314.1
259.7
268.9
223.5
295.0
269.4
302.0
338.8
344.9
282.8
315.2
263.8
270.9
226.4
297.9
272.0
304.1
339.9
344.9
287.3
318.7
265.3
271.2
227.9
299.3
272.9
304.9
339.8
345.3
289.4
318.8
267.8
271.6
228.5
300.0
273.7
305.3
341.3
348.7
285.4
318.2
269.5
272.9
229.0
302.6
276.1
304.2
340.0
348.6
281.1
318.1
271.5
273.1
228.8
303.2
278.0
303.3
339.9
348.9
277.1
316.8
272.0
274.0
2299
3030
278.3
'304.7
343.1
'350.6
'274.4
'324.3
'274.1
'274.6
'233.4
'303.4
'281.2
305.0
343.0
350.5
274.2
325.4
272.5
276.1
231.9
303.5
284.0
303.6
342.4
350.5
267.6
326.1
275.7
278.9
233.5
304,5
284.6
303.8
342.6
352.2
266.1
329.7
276.2
280.3
235.8
305.0
285.3
303.4
341.2
352.1
263.5
330.1
276.7
281.0
237.3
304.8
290.0
11
11-1
11-2
11-3
11-4
11-6
11-7
11-9
Machinery and equipment ............................................................
Agricultural machinery and equipment........................................
Construction machinery and equipment......................................
Metalworking machinery and equipment ....................................
General purpose machinery and equipment................................
Special industry machinery and equipment ................................
Electrical machinery and equipment ..........................................
Miscellaneous machinery..........................................................
263.1
287.7
320.8
301.2
288.5
308.0
220.1
252.3
260.7
285.7
318.4
299.9
285.9
307.2
217.5
248.8
262.1
286.8
320.1
301.3
287.0
308.8
219.2
250.1
264.8
288.1
323.8
302.9
290.6
311.0
221.1
254.0
266.2
290.3
325.0
303.5
292.3
310.3
222.8
256.0
268.1
292.8
326.5
305.3
293.9
312.8
224.2
258.5
269.3
295.5
328.3
306.6
295.1
314.6
225.3
259.0
270.4
300.8
329.6
307.9
296.2
315.0
226.0
259.8
272.0
302.8
332.0
312.9
297.9
316.4
227.0
260.4
'274.1
'303.1
337.0
'315.9
'300.0
'320.4
'228.7
'261.4
2749
303.7
338.1
315.8
300.8
320.3
229.4
263.4
275.7
304.6
337.4
317.0
301.5
320.6
230.5
264.1
277.3
306.1
341.4
318.7
302.9
323.1
231.6
265.4
278.1
307.0
343.4
320.3
303.3
324.1
231.7
267.2
12
12-1
12-2
12-3
12-4
12-5
12-6
Furniture and household durables ................................................
Household furniture..................................................................
Commercial furniture................................................................
Floor covenngs........................................................................
Household appliances ..............................................................
Home electronic equipment ......................................................
Other household durable goods ................................................
1984
219.4
257.6
178.6
186.9
89.1
280.8
197.4
216.4
257.7
179.5
185.5
90.8
276.7
197.3
218.6
257.9
180.7
186.1
86.7
276.4
199.5
220.0
258.7
182.8
188.8
87.4
282.1
199.6
220.7
259.1
181.9
189.1
87.6
280.9
201.0
222.2
261.6
181.7
190.1
87.8
285.8
201.3
222.8
262.1
180.9
190.8
881
285.8
202.1
225.1
263.3
182.3
190.9
88.0
285.3
202.9
226.6
263.9
181.4
191.3
89.6
286.2
'203.5
'227.5
'266.7
'180.3
'193.4
'89.3
'283.4
203.9
228.3
271.6
179.8
193.8
87.5
283.0
204.7
228.5
273.9
179.8
195.9
86.8
284.3
205.6
230.6
274.5
180.3
196.3
88.2
283.5
206.1
230.9
275.5
180.5
197.8
88.1
283.1
13
13-11
13-2
13-3
13-4
13-5
13-6
13-7
13-8
13-9
Nonmetallic mineral products........................................................
Fiat glass ................................................................................
Concrete ingredients ................................................................
Concete p'ooucts....................................................................
Structural clay products, excluding refractories ..........................
Refractories ..........................................................................
Asphalt roofing ........................................................................
Gypsum products ....................................................................
Glass containers ......................................................................
Other nonmetallic minerals........................................................
309.5
212.9
296.3
291.2
249.7
302.5
407.0
256.2
328.5
463.9
312.0
210.2
297.5
291.2
250.1
304.0
407.4
261.1
335.3
477.6
313.6
210.3
297.5
293.5
250.7
307.1
428.5
260.7
335.3
476.8
314.3
218.3
297.7
293.4
250.9
307.1
421.9
259.7
335.5
476.2
314.1
218.3
298.0
293.4
250.9
307.1
420.9
255.3
335.5
475.3
313.2
218.3
298.5
292.9
255.3
307.1
401.6
252.9
335.5
474.3
313.3
218.5
298.4
293.3
256.2
307.8
402.9
252.4
335.5
473.3
313.7
218.5
298.5
293.4
256.5
308.9
410.2
251.3
335.5
473.5
313.5
216.1
298.7
293.6
257.5
311.3
405.6
249.7
335.5
474.7
'315.6
'216.2
'306.2
'295.5
'257.5
'316.8
'401.3
250.4
'335.4
'474.7
318.4
216.1
308.1
295.6
257.4
330.9
398.8
255.0
349.6
479.0
319.7
216.2
309.5
296.0
257.4
338.4
392.8
260.7
355.2
480.1
320.0
216.2
309.2
297.3
260.7
339.7
385.2
262.8
357.4
478.8
319.1
216.2
310.7
297.1
258.1
340.4
384.0
259.4
357.4
472.1
14
14-1
14-4
Transportation equipment (12/68 = 100)......................................
Motor vehicles and equipment ..................................................
Railroad equipment ..................................................................
235.4
237.5
338.2
233.6
236.0
331.2
234.3
236.7
331.4
235.0
237.4
338.1
235.9
238.4
338.7
231.8
232.8
338.7
244.5
247.8
338.7
246.3
2489
341.3
246.8
249.5
340.1
'248.6
'250.8
'345.8
244.7
246.1
352.4
244.9
246.4
352.8
245.6
246.6
353.9
247.2
248.7
349.6
15
15-1
15-2
15-3
15-4
15-5
15-9
Miscellaneous products................................................................
Toys, sporting goods, small arms, ammunition............................
Tobacco products ....................................................................
Notions....................................................................................
Photographic equipment and supplies ........................................
Mobile homes (12/74 = 100)....................................................
Other miscellaneous products ..................................................
265.6
212.2
268.3
259.6
210.1
(6)
346.9
266.9
211.4
268.7
267.8
212.5
<6)
349.4
266.3
211.2
268.7
268.0
212.5
(6)
346.9
263.2
213.2
268.8
267.5
211.4
158.1
333.1
262j6
212,7
268.8
267.7
207.1
158.3
334.6
267.0
213.6
274.5
267.8
208.7
158.7
345.5
268.5
213.0
278.2
269.7
208.9
159.1
348.5
269.5
212.7
278.2
269.7
209.0
159.3
344.8
267.6
213.3
278.2
269.7
209.1
159.3
344.6
'268.3
'218.4
'278.2
'270.3
'2099
'159.5
'342.2
273.7
221.0
306.4
270.7
210.8
159.6
340.9
272.9
221.6
306.4
271.8
212.5
161.6
334.3
273.3
221.9
306.5
271.8
214.6
162.0
333.5
272.3
222.7
306.7
280.3
210.9
162.1
330.8
1Data for January 1982 have been revised to reflect the availability of late reports and corrections by
respondents. All data are subject to revision 4 months after original publication.
2 Prices for natural gas are lagged 1 month.
3 Includes only domestic production.
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
4 Most prices for refined petroleum products are lagged 1 month,
5 Some prices for industrial chemicals are lagged 1 month.
6 Not available.
r=revised.
91
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW July 1982 • Current Labor Statistics: Producer Prices
25.
Producer Price Indexes, for special commodity groupings
[1967=100 unless otherwise specified]
Annual
1981
Commodity grouping
All commodities — less farm products .
All foods
Processed foods
Industrial commodities less fu e ls .............
Selected textile mill products (Dec. 1975 = 100)
Hosiery ....................................
Underwear and nightwear ...............
Chemicals and allied products, including synthetic rubber
and fibers and yarns...........................
Pharmaceutical preparations ........................
Lumber and wood products, excluding m illw ork.............
Special metals and metal products........................
Fabricated metal products ...........................
Copper and copper products ........................................
Machinery and motive products ...............
Machinery and equipment, except electrical...............
Agricultural machinery, including tractors...............
Metalworking machinery ......................
Numerically controlled machine tools (Dec. 1971 = 100)
Total tractors ........................................
Agricultural machinery and equipment less parts . . .
Farm and garden tractors less p a rts ..................
Agricultural machinery, excluding tractors less parts . . .
Industrial valves ........................
Industrial fittings
..................................
Construction m aterials..........................
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.1
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
295.7
251.9
252.2
135.9
134.3
203.5
296.1
250.3
250.5
262.9
135.7
134.6
202.3
296.7
252.2
253.1
263.5
135.9
135.7
203.5
298.0
255.2
256.0
265.0
136.8
135.8
204.7
298.7
253.7
255.0
266.1
137.2
135.3
204.7
298.5
251.7
252.8
266.4
138.1
135.5
204.7
299.5
249.1
250,0
268.7
138.2
136.5
204.7
299.4
247.4
247,6
269.0
138.4
136.5
205.7
300.0
247.6
246.5
269.4
137,9
136.7
206.3
'302,0
'251.6
'250.5
'271.1
139,3
'136.9
'213.9
301.8
253.5
252.2
271.4
140.0
137.0
216.0
301.4
251.5
252.1
271.6
139.0
137.5
216.4
300.9
254.4
254.9
272.2
138.9
138.1
216.4
301.1
257.9
259 0
272.8
138.9
138.5
216.3
278.6
186.8
303.1
279.4
280.0
204.0
256.7
279.0
185.7
311.5
277.9
278.5
206.6
254.4
281.2
186.6
312.2
277.9
279.0
203.7
255.6
282,3
189.0
308.7
280.2
281.7
202.5
257.4
284.0
188.4
306.2
281.9
283.1
206.2
258.6
284.4
191.6
298.0
280.1
283.9
205.1
257.7
283.8
192.8
290.1
286.7
286.0
201.9
264.3
283.2
192.5
286.4
286.8
287.0
198.9
265.8
283.1
193.3
290.7
286.6
287.1
195.4
266.9
'284.3
'196.8
'289.9
'287.9
'289.4
' 194.5
'268,9
286.0
198.0
288.3
286.1
290.4
194.1
267.6
285.8
200.0
288.6
285.5
291.5
191.0
268.2
285.7
204.4
289.9
285.7
292.5
190.5
269.3
287.3
205.3
287.2
286 4
294.3
191.6
270.5
288.3
296.2
329.4
239.4
324.0
289.0
298.9
294.4
314.8
302.1
283.0
285.9
293.7
327.1
237.3
322.0
286.7
297.7
290.8
314.3
303.0
284.2
287.3
294.8
328.3
241.4
322.5
287.9
298.0
292.5
315.3
303.0
285.0
290.4
295.6
330.1
241.7
325.5
288.6
298.0
293.9
317.5
303.0
285.7
291.7
298.2
331.4
241.8
327.8
291.1
301.4
295.8
319.8
303.0
285.5
293.8
301.6
333.9
241.8
330.7
294.0
305.5
298.7
322.7
304.3
284.4
295.0
305.7
336.7
241.8
338.3
297.6
313.0
299.9
322.4
304.1
284.6
296.4
312.5
338.3
242.2
342.2
303.5
319.6
303.5
323.4
304.1
284.1
298.4
314.7
341.2
242.0
342.3
305.8
319.7
310.9
325.3
304.1
285.2
'300.7
'315,1
'343.8
'240.1
'346.9
'306.5
'319.7
'311.6
'328.6
304.1
'286.6
301.6
314.6
343.3
240.1
346.2
306.3
318.5
311.6
326,8
304.1
286.9
302.2
315.5
346.4
240.3
346.4
307.3
318.8
307.3
327.1
304.1
287.4
304.1
317.7
348.8
240.2
351.7
309.2
322.3
314,3
327.7
309.1
288.1
305 2
318.2
349.4
240.3
352.4
309.6
322.9
314.7
327.9
309 1
287.9
1Data for January 1982 have been revised to reflect the availability of late reports and corrections
by respondents. All data are subject to revision 4 months after original publication.
26.
1982
1981
r=revised,
Producer Price Indexes, by durability of product
[1967 = 100]
Annual
average
1981
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.1
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Total durable goods ...................................
Total nondurable g o o d s .................................
269.8
312.4
268.6
314.8
269.1
315.7
270.8
316.8
271.9
316.2
271.8
315.0
275.0
312.8
275.4
311.4
276.0
311.4
'277.6
314.7
277.3
315.3
277.3
314.2
278.1
313.5
278.4
314.5
Total manufactures...................................
Durable ..........................................
Nondurable...............................
285.9
269.6
303.6
286.2
268.2
305.7
286.9
268.9
306.4
288.0
270.6
306.9
288.6
271.7
306.9
288.3
271.7
306.3
289.8
275.1
305.5
289.7
275.8
304.5
289.9
276.5
304.3
'291.9
'278.0
306.8
291.9
277.7
307.2
291.9
277.8
305.8
290.9
278.7
303.9
291.3
279.1
304.1
Total raw or slightly processed goods...........
Durable ...................................
Nondurable..............................................
330.7
271.4
334.0
334.2
280.4
337.1
335.4
272.4
338.9
337.9
271.2
341.8
335.8
275.9
339.1
332.7
270.4
336.3
326.4
263.7
330.0
323.3
253.4
327.4
323.6
247.8
328.2
'328.9
'253.8
333.4
330.6
254.4
335 1
329.9
250.7
334.7
332.2
245.9
337.5
334.9
239.4
340.8
Commodity grouping
1981
' Data for January 1982 have been revised to reflect the availability of late reports and corrections
by respondents. All data are subject to revision 4 months after original publication.
27.
1982
r=revised,
Producer Price Indexes for the output of selected SIC industries
[1967 = 100 unless otherwise specified]
1972
SIC
code
Industry description
Annual
average
1981
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.1
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
167.3
346.0
493.9
898.8
277.3
138.7
168.1
347.9
484.5
919.7
278.4
137.1
168.1
352.0
488.4
713.7
278.4
137.1
168.1
358.3
502.1
911.5
278.4
137.1
168.1
365.4
503.4
900.3
278.2
137.1
168.1
364.5
506.0
913.6
279.2
137.1
168.1
354.1
506.2
900.8
2797
143.4
171.3
354.1
507.8
907.5
279.8
143.4
171.3
343.7
510.3
921.7
2807
143.4
171.3
347.9
'520.9
-919.7
'287.4
'149.6
171.3
313.7
524.7
913.5
289.5
149.6
171.3
325.0
521.9
904.7
292.7
149.6
171.3
327.0
527.2
894.9
292.2
151.7
177.1
308.3
529.4
902.0
294.4
151.7
243.1
241.3
192.0
274.8
243.6
230.4
196.2
273.4
245.9
238.1
198.3
273.5
252.6
246.0
203.6
273.8
250.9
254.0
201.2
273.7
252.7
253.9
188.8
275.0
244.1
252.2
175.5
279.2
237.0
248.9
172.8
279.5
234.1
247.0
166.7
275.0
'237.6
'245.6
( 2)
275.0
243.8
250.5
<2)
276.4
247.0
248.2
(2)
276.8
253.3
253.4
( 2)
275.3
264.3
265.9
(2)
274.9
1981
1982
MINING
1011
1092
1211
1311
1442
1455
Iron ores (12/75 = 100)......................
Mercury ores (12/75 = 100) ................................
Bituminous coal and lignite ............................
Crude petroleum and natural gas ................
Construction sand and gravel ........................
Kaolin and ball clay (6/76 = 100)............
2011
2013
2016
2021
Meatpacking plants ......................................
Sausages and other prepared meats......................
Poultry dressing plants..........................
Creamery butter......................................
MANUFACTURING
See footnotes at end of table.
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
92
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
27.
Continued— Producer Price Indexes for the output of selected SIC industries
[1967 = 100 unless otherwise specified]
1972
SIC
code
Industry description
Annual
average
1981
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.1
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
1981
1982
2022
2024
2033
2034
2041
2044
2048
2061
2063
2067
MANUFACTURING - Continued
Cheese, natural and processed (12/72 = 100)..............
Ice cream and frozen desserts (12/72 = 100) ..............
Canned fruits and vegetables........................................
Dehydrated food products (12/73 = 100)......................
Flour mills (12/71 = 100) ............................................
Rice milling..................................................................
Prepared foods, n.e.c. (12/75 = 100)............................
Raw cane sugar ..........................................................
Beet sugar ..................................................................
Chewing gum ..............................................................
215.8
211.9
248.5
177.6
195 9
277.2
124.6
273.5
320.6
309.8
216.2
212.4
245.9
175.3
199.4
300.3
129.8
224.8
334.4
303.1
216.1
212.4
248.9
175.0
199.3
300.3
127.5
263.3
339.7
303.1
213.8
212.7
251.6
180.5
196.5
297.4
125.9
272.2
274.1
303.1
214.5
212.7
252.9
178.7
191.0
284.3
124.8
254.6
287.5
303.2
215.0
212.7
254.3
183.4
195.3
268.2
119.6
212.3
270.7
303.2
215.4
212.5
257.0
182.1
191.1
247.3
117.3
219.9
250.3
303.2
215.9
212.5
256.4
181.4
191.5
235.4
116.4
224.3
230.4
303.2
218.4
212.7
258.9
182.1
189.2
215.1
116.0
230.8
250.5
303.2
218.6
212.8
r 260.8
184.0
r 191.5
205.9
r 116.0
247.6
r 266.4
303.3
217.9
212.8
262.2
181.8
187.4
192.2
116.5
245.1
292.6
303.3
216.8
210.9
262.7
181.5
187.3
183.5
114.8
233.0
272.4
3034
216.6
214.2
261.5
181.5
192.5
177.9
115.4
242.9
272.6
303.4
217.1
214.2
262.3
178.5
188.4
183.0
116.7
269.2
280.2
303.4
2074
2075
2077
2083
2085
2091
2092
2095
2098
2111
Cottonseed oil m ills......................................................
Soybean oil m ills..........................................................
Animal and marine fats and oils ....................................
Malt ............................................................................
Distilled liquor, except brandy (12/75 = 100) ................
Canned and cured seafoods (12/73 = 100) ..................
Fresh or frozen packaged fish ......................................
Roasted coffee (12/72 = 100)......................................
Macaroni and spaghetti ................................................
Cigarettes....................................................................
199.0
245.8
288.1
282.5
134.7
187.8
369.6
238.0
252.0
277.7
216.6
258.1
304.3
286.1
134.3
187.3
378.2
238.6
246.6
278.3
212.3
248.4
291.3
286.1
134.6
187.5
375.5
238.6
246.6
278.3
212.0
253.7
288.8
286.1
134.6
187.4
367.6
236.4
259.5
278.3
206.0
245.8
294.1
286.1
135.5
188.4
347.1
235.7
259.5
278.3
182.3
234.2
281.2
275.4
135.5
188.8
353.5
237.3
259.5
284.2
172.0
229.7
274.0
275.4
135.5
188.2
356.9
238.2
259.5
288.4
167.2
221.2
272.3
275.4
137.9
188.3
360.8
239.2
259.5
288.4
182.4
221.9
266.6
275.4
137.9
188.5
369.5
240.4
259.5
288.4
184.9
r 223.1
r 260.4
267.1
140.1.
187.2
'396.8
'245.1
259.5
288.4
170.6
219.9
262.6
267.1
137.9
187.0
390.8
247.1
259.5
319.7
158.2
217.8
271.8
267.1
140.2
187.7
420.7
248.7
259.5
319.7
164.6
225.0
273.3
259.1
140.2
188.2
433.8
250.7
259.5
319.7
167.9
232.0
271.5
259.8
139.8
188.0
427.5
247.9
259.5
319.8
2121
2131
2211
2221
2251
2254
2257
2261
2262
Cigars ........................................................................
Chewing and smoking tobacco......................................
Weaving mills, cotton (12/72 = 100) ............................
Weaving mills, synthetic (12/77 = 100) ........................
Women's hosiery, except socks (12/75 = 100)..............
Knit underwear mills ....................................................
Circular knit fabric mills (6/76 = 100)............................
Finishing plants, cotton (6/76 = 100) ............................
Finishing plants, synthetics, silk (6/76 = 100) ................
169.1
320.9
234.1
136.6
113.5
210.2
110.8
144,9
126.5
168.5
320.8
233.5
135.7
114.2
210.0
110.5
147.0
126.6
168.5
320.8
234.3
137.1
115.6
210.0
110.4
146.2
126.6
169.7
321.0
234.7
138.0
115.5
210.7
111.0
146.3
127.1
169.7
321.3
237.4
139.3
115.0
210.8
112.0
146.2
127.8
174.5
325.3
236.0
139.5
115.0
210.9
111.9
145.4
129.0
174.5
326.1
233.2
139.4
115.2
210.9
112.0
144.9
129.1
174.5
326.1
229.8
139.8
115.1
212.8
112.4
143.5
129.1
174.5
326.1
227.6
139.5
115.2
213.0
111.8
141,4
128.6
'174.5
'326.1
'227.3
139.8
115.6
'225.2
'112.4
140.5
'129.4
175.6
349.4
226.9
139.8
115.6
234.7
112.3
140.3
129.7
175.6
349.4
226.5
139.9
116.2
235.5
110.6
140.8
128.3
176.8
349.4
226.1
139.2
116.3
235.6
110.1
141.6
128.1
176.6
353.6
227.7
138.9
117.0
226.0
109.7
141.4
128.2
2272
2281
2282
2284
2298
2311
2321
2322
2323
2327
Tufted carpets and rugs................................................
Yarn mills, except wool (12/71 =100) ..........................
Throwing and winding mills (6/76 = 100) ......................
Thread mills (6/76 = 100)............................................
Cordage and twine (12/77 = 100)................................
Men’s and boys' suits and coats....................................
Men's and boys’ shirts and nightwear ............................
Men’s and boys’ underwear..........................................
Men’s and boys’ neckwear (12/75 = 100) ....................
Men’s and boys' separate trousers................................
154.3
221.8
138.6
151.4
134.8
223.9
208.8
230.6
114.6
186.1
154.5
224.1
139.1
150.9
134.3
220.4
207.1
231.0
115.4
186.1
155.6
225.8
139.3
151.1
134.3
224.6
207.5
230.7
115.4
186.1
158.3
225.1
142.7
151.1
134.3
225.9
210.5
230.8
113.9
186.4
157.4
225.4
146.8
151.1
134.3
226.2
210.6
230.8
113.9
186.4
157.3
223.8
148.0
154.8
139.3
226.5
211.5
230.8
113.9
186.4
155.7
222.4
154.5
157.0
139.3
227.4
212.4
230.8
113.9
186.8
157.0
219.9
145.6
157.0
139.3
228.4
212.6
233.0
113.9
186.9
156.7
217.2
146.0
156.8
140.7
230.5
213.4
233.0
113.9
187.1
'155.5
'216.3
'145.7
156.8
141.0
'233.7
'173.4
'246.9
115.3
'188.4
155.3
215.3
135.2
156.8
141.0
232.1
191.7
246.9
117.3
187.0
155.7
215.6
150.8
156.8
141.0
233.9
192.7
247.4
117.3
188.2
156.1
214.6
150.9
156.7
141.0
234.3
193.1
247.4
117.3
193.0
156.4
214.9
152.6
156.6
141.0
234.6
173.6
247.4
117.3
194.9
2328
2331
2335
2341
2342
2361
2381
2394
2396
2421
Men’s and boys’ work clothing ......................................
Women's and misses' blouses and waists (6/78 = 100) .
Women’s and misses’ dresses (12/77 = 100)................
Women’s and children’s underwear (12/72 = 100) ........
Brassieres and allied garments (12/75 = 100) ..............
Children’s dresses and blouses (12/77 = 100)..............
Fabric dress and work gloves........................................
Canvas and related products (12/77 = 1 0 0 )..................
Automotive and apparel trimmings (12/77 = 100)..........
Sawmills and planing mills (12/71 = 100)......................
248.4
119.8
121.1
169.9
136.8
120.3
289.3
132.1
131.0
228.2
248.2
118.4
122.3
169.2
135.0
120.5
292.1
130.0
131.0
234.8
248.3
118.5
122.5
170.5
136.9
120.5
292.1
130.1
131.0
234.8
250.8
121.0
123.0
170.6
138.8
121.6
289.2
130.1
131.0
233.5
251.1
121.2
124.3
170.6
138.8
121.7
289.2
133.1
131.0
231.2
251.2
121.3
123.5
170.6
138.8
121.7
289,2
134.6
131.0
225.2
253.1
126.4
123.4
170.6
138.8
122.0
2892
137.6
131.0
219.5
253.2
126.7
124.1
171.6
138.9
122.5
289.2
137.6
131.0
216.5
253.3
126.7
122.7
171.6
140.1
123.2
289.2
139.7
131.0
218.6
'252.5
'126.5
'123.0
'174.7
'145.1
'123.2
293.8
'144.9
131.0
'218.0
251.8
123.8
122.9
175.4
149.2
122.0
297.4
145.5
131.0
217.6
252.9
123.9
123.6
175.7
149.2
122.0
295.5
147.8
131.0
217.1
253.8
123.8
122.9
175.7
149.2
121.0
295.5
146.3
131.0
218.4
253.7
123.7
122.9
177.2
148.5
121.0
295.5
146.5
131.0
216.8
2436
2439
2448
2451
2492
2511
2512
2515
2521
2611
Softwood veneer and plywood (12/75 = 100)................
Structural wood members, n.e.c. (12/75 = 100) ............
Wood pallets and skids (12/75 = 100)..........................
Mobile homes (12/74 = 100)........................................
Particleboard (12/75 = 100) ........................................
Wood household furniture (12/71 =100) ......................
Upholstered household furniture (12/71 = 1 0 0 ) ..............
Mattresses and bedsprings............................................
Wood office furniture ................................................
Pulp mills (12/73 = 100)..............................................
142.0
156.6
152.5
156.8
172.8
197.4
174.9
193.7
254.6
253.2
145.7
158.2
153.1
155.9
184.5
196.2
169.7
190.4
255.4
251.3
148.1
158.2
153.0
156.1
182.3
197.5
173.9
190.5
254.6
251.3
143.8
157.6
153.1
158.1
179.6
198 6
175.1
191.3
254.7
251.3
139.6
156.9
152.9
158.3
173.6
199.2
175.1
194.6
254.7
251.3
135.4
156.6
152.8
158.7
170.5
200.1
175.3
195.2
257.1
251.3
129.3
154.8
152.0
159.2
168.0
201.0
175.6
195.2
257.1
255.0
129.0
154.2
150.4
159.3
166.9
202.0
179.5
197.5
257.0
262.5
134.5
153.2
149.9
160.3
170.3
202.8
182.1
198.0
257.6
262.5
'132.5
'153.9
149.8
'160.4
'172.6
'203.6
'184.4
'204.4
'261.9
'258.6
131.1
153.2
148.9
160.7
170.2
204.2
182.0
210.0
271.8
260.9
132.3
152.3
148.1
162.7
173.4
2048
182.0
210.0
271.9
262.9
129.2
152.9
145.8
162.9
176.8
207.0
184.6
210.1
271.9
255.8
126.0
151.5
144.6
163.1
176.7
207.3
185.1
210.3
271.9
254.8
2621
2631
2647
2654
2655
2812
2821
2822
2824
2873
Paper mills, except building (12/74 = 100)....................
Paperboard mills (12/74 = 100) ..................................
Sanitary paper products................................................
Sanitary food containers ..............................................
Fiber cans, drums, and similar products (12/75 = 100) ..
Alkalies and chlorine (12/73 = 100)..............................
Plastics materials and resins (6/76 = 100)....................
Synthetic rubber ..........................................................
Organic fiber, noncellulosic............................................
Nitrogenous fertilizers (12/75 = 100) ............................
156.3
151.8
343.8
245.3
163.0
305.3
150.8
292.9
155.7
142.7
154.3
152.1
344.3
239.2
160.9
302.2
149.7
293.3
156.2
148.5
155.7
152.3
344.4
242.2
160.9
309.3
150.7
296.3
156.8
143.4
157.0
151.7
344.2
246.0
163.2
306.2
155.0
297.3
159.2
143.5
157.4
152.4
344.3
252.9
163.2
310.4
155.6
299.4
160.3
143.9
158.8
153.7
344.3
253.2
163.2
316.0
156.0
299.3
160.6
142.1
159.8
153.6
344.0253.4
167.6
317.7
156.3
301.0
164.2
142.9
159.7
153.5
344.1
253.3
167.6
317.0
153.7
301.4
162.5
144.2
159.6
152.7
344,6
253.3
170.0
324.8
154.3302.7
161.9
142.9
'162.0
' 152.5
r 344.6
'254.0
'176.4
'329.4
'150.7
'303.9
'161.8
142.4
162.0
153.6
345.6
258.3
176.5
333.7
156.4
306.2
161.1
142.5
161.9
153.2
345.6
261.4
176.5
335.0
151.7
305.6
162.4
142.2
161.8
153.0
345.5
261.4
176.5
322.1
151.2
306.6
161.7
142.7
160.5
151.5
344.7
261.4
176.7
338.2
151.9
307.1
161.7
141.1
2874
2875
2892
2911
2951
2952
3011
Phosphatic fertilizers ....................................................
Fertilizers, mixing only ..................................................
Explosives ..........................................................
Petroleum refining (6/76 = 100) ..................................
Paving mixtures and blocks (12/75 = 100) . . . .
Asphalt felts and coatings (12/75 = 100)......................
Tires and inner tubes (12/73 = 100) ............................
254.1
270.2
312.0
294.4
194.3
176.7
215.9
251.5
273.6
314.5
304.1
198.8
176.3
216.2
250.9
273.1
312.6
302.6
198.4
185.7
216.2
249.4
275.3
315.7
299.1
197.1
182 8
213.1
260.0
273.0
319.8
297.5
196.3
182.3
215.5
259.4
272.0
316.5
295.8
196.0
174.3
220.6
259.4
273.8
318.7
294.6
196.3
174.9
221.0
258.5
273.7
316.5
293.3
196.4
178.1
220.1
259.0
270.5
315.6
293.1
196.0
176.1
221.2
'261.0
'274.3
'314.9
'293.0
'197.0
'174.2
'222.0
265.5
275.5
312.9
288.8
198.4
173.2
224.4
261.7
278.1
316.3
281.9
198.8
170.5
222.3
258.5
278,4
322.2
267.5
197.1
167.4
220.9
256.2
278.5
321.4
259.2
196.6
167.7
221.2
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
93
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW July 1982 • Current Labor Statistics: Producer Prices
27 .
Continued— Producer Price Indexes for the output of selected SIC industries
[1967=100 unless otherwise specified]
1972
SIC
code
Industry description
Annual
average
1981
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept
Oct
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.1
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
1981
1982
3021
3031
3079
3111
3143
3144
3171
3211
3221
Rubber and plastic footwear (12/71 = 100)....................................
Reclaimed rubber (12/73 =100) ....................................................
Miscellaneous plastic products (6/78 = 100) ..................................
Leather tanning and finishing (12/77 = 100)....................................
Men’s footwear, except athletic (12/75 = 100)................................
Women’s footwear, except athletic..................................................
Women’s handbags and purses (12/75 = 100) ..............................
Flat glass (12/71 = 100) ..............................................................
Glass containers............................................................................
184.4
193.4
128.8
150.6
169.1
217.8
155.5
175.6
328.4
184.0
187.7
129.1
154.7
168.9
219.3
158.4
174.5
335.2
184.1
187.7
129.6
150.7
169.6
218.5
158.4
174.6
335.2
185.0
192.9
129.2
151.3
170.7
218.9
158.4
180.0
335.4
185.4
200.3
130.2
148.5
171.4
217.8
158.4
180.0
335.4
185.3
200.3
130.3
148.3
170.9
218.2
158.4
180.0
335.4
185.0
200.3
130.8
148.2
170.5
212.5
158.4
180.1
335.4
185.0
200.3
1308
146.8
170.6
212.7
158.4
180.1
335.4
185.2
200.3
131.0
147.5
171.3
212.4
158.4
177.4
335.4
186.1
r 200.3
r 131.1
r 150.8
'173.1
'208.5
158.4
'177.5
'335.3
186.5
198.1
131.3
149.2
171.6
211.3
158.4
177.4
349.5
189.1
204.9
132.5
148.2
173.6
211.6
158.4
177.5
355.1
189.0
206.9
132.9
147.5
174.9
215.6
158.4
177.5
357.3
186.7
207.2
132.7
147.3
175.1
213.4
158.4
177.5
357.3
3241
3251
3253
3255
3259
3261
3262
3263
3269
3271
Cement, hydraulic..........................................................................
Brick and structural clay tile ............................................................
Ceramic wall and floor tile (12/75 =100) ......................................
Clay refractories............................................................................
Structural clay products, n.e.c...........................................................
Vitreous plumbing fixtures ..............................................................
Vitreous china food utensils............................................................
Fine earthenware food utensils........................................................
Pottery products, n.e.c. (12/75 = 100)............................................
Concrete block and brick................................................................
328.5
296.9
132.5
310.4
222.7
254.9
335.0
308.9
160.1
270.4
332.3
297.4
132.1
311.0
223.9
252.5
336.6
309.6
160.6
271.2
331.0
298.5
132.1
312.2
223.9
255.8
336.6
309.6
160.7
271.2
331.6
298.9
132.1
312.3
223.9
258.7
336.6
309.6
160.7
271.2
331.6
298.9
132.1
312.3
223.9
259.6
336.6
309.6
160.7
274.0
332.0
299.9
140.4
312.5
227.5
259.0
336.8
313.8
161.8
274.2
330.3
299.9
140.4
313.9
231.7
259.0
336.8
313.8
161.8
274.3
330.3
300.5
140.4
315.2
231.7
259.3
344.7
315.0
163.7
274.2
330.3
300.5
140.4
319.9
236.6
260.1
344.7
315.0
163.7
275.1
'339.6
298.9
'140.4
'329.6
'225.6
261.1
347.7
'315.1
'164.3
'274.9
338.2
291.8
136.8
346.5
196.7
260.6
347.7
314.5
164.2
276.0
338.3
291.8
136.8
357.5
196.8
260.7
347.3
314.4
164.1
276.3
337.9
295.9
137.1
357.0
202.4
261.9
336.2
312.8
161.4
276.4
338.6
305.8
138.0
357.2
216.4
265.4
345.2
314.1
163.6
276.6
3273
3274
3275
3291
3297
3312
3313
3316
3317
3321
Ready-mixed concrete....................................................................
Lime (12/75 = 100) ......................................................................
Gypsum products ..........................................................................
Abrasive products (12/71 = 100) ..................................................
Nonclay refractories (12/74 = 100)................................................
Blast furnaces and steel mills ........................................................
Electrometallurgical products (12/75 = 100) ..................................
Cold finishing of steel shapes..........................................................
Steel pipes and tubes ....................................................................
Gray iron foundries (12/68 = 100)..................................................
298.7
172.5
257.3
232.5
185.3
342.8
121.8
316.2
341.5
299.5
299.4
172.6
261.4
233.2
186.6
337.3
120.6
308.2
334.1
298.4
301.7
173.0
260.9
234.1
189.7
3382
120.7
309.5
336.3
298.4
300.7
173.1
261.8
235.0
189.7
350.1
121.2
325.0
348.2
298.8
300.0
173.9
258.9
235.1
189.7
350.0
121.5
325.7
350.6
299.9
299.2
173.7
252.9
237.3
189.7
350.3
121.4
326.2
350.5
302.0
299.5
173.7
251.5
237.6
189.7
353.1
125.4
326.4
362.0
303.3
299.4
173.5
252.5
241.0
190.2
353.0
125.4
326.4
362.3
305.2
299.6
173.8
250.6
241.0
190.3
353.3
125.3
326.7
363.0
306.1
'301.9
'178.8
250.9
'241.3
'191.2
'354.7
125.3
327.0
'363.7
'307.9
301.4
184.0
253.9
245.0
198.1
354.6
123.4
327.0
364.2
310.4
302.0
186.0
260.5
247.8
200.5
354.5
120.3
327.0
366.0
310.6
303.3
186.6
262.2
248.9
202.4
356.1
120.3
327.6
365.8
310.4
303.9
188.1
258.8
251.2
203.2
355.9
120.3
327.8
365.8
311.4
3333
3334
3351
3353
3354
3355
3411
3425
3431
3465
Primary zin c..................................................................................
Primary aluminum..........................................................................
Copper rolling and drawing ............................................................
Aluminum sheet, plate, and foil (12/75 - 100) ................................
Aluminum extruded products (12/75 = 100)....................................
Aluminum rolling, drawing, n.e.c. (12/75 = 100) ..............................
Meta' cans....................................................................................
Hand saws and saw blades (12/72 = 100) ....................................
Metal sanitary ware........................................................................
Automotive stampings (12/75 = 100) ............................................
326.5
333.5
212.4
175.9
180.1
159.1
305.3
201.3
265.0
146.4
332.7
334.2
2126
174.4
180.7
157.4
304.7
200.2
264.8
145.0
335.1
332.5
210.6
176.1
180.8
157.3
304.7
200.2
265.2
145.2
335.4
334.2
209.4
177.3
181.2
157.2
305.5
204.1
269.2
146.2
353.8
334.4
212.9
177.4
181.3
157.2
306.7
204.2
269.7
146.4
355.9
333.6
214.1
178.0
181.2
157.7
306.8
204.6
270.2
146.9
337.0
333.5
212.3
179.9
181.3
163.0
307.0
204.8
270.3
147.4
337.5
332.5
209.2
180.2
181.4
166.2
306.0
205.0
271.6
149.7
315.7
332.8
207.1
180.8
181.1
166.1
304.9
206.0
271.8
149.1
'308.6
'324.1
'204.8
'181.8
'180.8
166.1
'310.8
'211.6
'271.3
'150.1
308.9
327.9
204.1
181.6
180.8
166.6
314.4
214.2
271.8
152.5
298.6
320.7
199.6
181.4
180.5
165.9
315.1
214.3
273.8
152.6
273.4
316.5
196.6
180.1
179.9
162.9
319.6
214.9
275.8
152.7
259.9
313.8
197.5
178.7
180.2
163.0
320.4
220.8
275.7
153.0
3482
3493
3494
3498
3519
3531
3532
3533
3534
3542
Small arms ammunition (12/75 = 100) ..........................................
Steel springs, except wire ..............................................................
Valves and pipe fittings (12/71 = 1 0 0 )............................................
Fabricated pipe and fittings ............................................................
Internal combustion engines, n.e.c.....................................................
Construction machinery (12/76 = 100) ..........................................
Mining machinery (12/72 = 100)....................................................
Oilfield machinery and equipment....................................................
Elevators and moving stairways......................................................
Machine tools, metal forming types (12/71 = 1 0 0 ) ..........................
160.5
245.1
248.4
361.4
311.0
157.0
282.3
395.4
253.5
306.4
157.8
241.7
247.9
359.9
306.2
155.3
280.0
384.6
251.2
304.5
157.8
241.9
248.5
361.6
307.2
156.9
280.8
390.3
251.2
305.7
157.8
243.7
250.0
364.6
312.0
159.0
282.7
401.3
252.1
307.6
159.9
248.9
251.0
370.0
314.2
159.5
285.3
406.5
252.8
309.5
159.9
252.4
252.7
375.1
322.1
160.1
286.9
411.3
254.6
312.0
159.9
253.9
252.9
377.7
323.2
161.0
288.5
415.6
257.0
311.7
159.9
254.1
253.5
378.6
326.4
161.6
290.8
418.2
260.7
312.3
163.9
256.1
255.7
379.3
325.4
159.7
292.9
420.3
265.6
319.3
'167.5
'255.8
'257.7
378.6
'329.4
'162.5
'295.5
'427.2
'264.3
'319.7
173.2
257.2
257.1
377.7
330.0
163.1
297.5
429.1
268.9
316.9
173.2
256.6
257.4
376.5
330.7
163.2
299.6
433.7
269.9
324.5
171.9
256.0
258.6
385.5
332.6
164.1
301.4
436.2
270.8
325.5
171.9
255.3
259.2
385.4
337.0
165.2
302.7
435.8
271.6
325.6
3546
3552
3553
3576
3592
3612
3623
3631
3632
3633
Power driven hand tools (12/76 = 100)..........................................
Textile machinery (12/69 = 100)....................................................
Woodworking machinery (12/72 = 100)..........................................
Scales and balances, excluding laboratory ......................................
Carburetors, pistons, rings, valves (6/76 = 100)..............................
transformers ................................................................................
Welding apparatus, electric (12/72 = 100)......................................
Household cooking equipment (12/75 = 100)..................................
Household refrigerators, freezers (6/76 = 100) ..............................
Household laundry equipment (12/73 = 100)..................................
147.1
243.4
224.5
226.2
177.9
209.7
227.2
141.1
132.3
174.2
147.0
241.2
219.1
230.2
172.0
207.8
225.9
140.7
129.5
173.9
147.1
244.4
219.7
230.3
176.5
209.6
227.2
141.0
130.8
173.6
148.2
246.2
224.0
226.6
180.8
210.7
228.3
140.5
135.5
174.1
148.4
245.4
225.4
226.6
181.3
212.8
229.6
141.5
135.5
174.6
148.6
248.2
2289
226.1
182.1
214.5
231.6
141.6
136.4
177.2
149.5
248.0
228.9
226.2
185.4
217.3
232.5
141.6
137.8
177.0
149.5
247.9
229.1
226.3
187.2
222.0
233.2
141.9
137.9
178.4
150.0
249.9
229.1
226.5
187.3
222.0
235.8
142.6
137.9
178.8
153.3
'252.3
'233.7
'228.3
'185.3
'220.5
'236.8
'146.0
'140.1
'180.1
153.4
250.7
229.2
228.9
189.4
221.9
236.0
146.3
139.6
180.4
153.4
253.4
229.6
229.8
190.2
222.4
231.5
146.9
140.8
186.2
154.0
256.2
235.0
229.6
192.6
223.2
232.9
146.2
142.5
186.9
156.1
256.5
234.7
229.5
195.2
224.7
232.9
146.8
143.2
188.6
3635
3636
3641
3644
3646
3648
3671
3674
3675
3676
Household vacuum cleaners ..........................................................
Sewing machines (12/75 = 100)....................................................
Electric lamps................................................................................
Noncurrent-carrying wiring devices (12/72 = 100) ..........................
Commercial lighting fixtures (12/75 = 100) ....................................
Lighting equipment, n.e.c. (12/75 = 100) ........................................
Electron tubes receiving typ e ..........................................................
Semiconductors and related devices ..............................................
Electronic capacitors (12/75 = 100) ..............................................
Electronic resistors (12/75 = 100)..................................................
156.8
146.6
277.5
250.4
154.4
155.7
309.7
90.4
170.3
141.3
158.5
153.8
275.1
242.8
156.2
153.3
285.1
90.6
168.5
140.8
158.6
153.8
276.5
251.5
156.2
153.7
312.5
90.3
171.2
141.2
158.6
153.8
275.2
253.3
154.4
153.8
327.4
89.2
171.4
142.1
158.8
153.8
280.0
253.8
155.5
161.3
327.5
89.2
178.8
142.5
158.8
153.8
283.1
258.5
157.6
161.7
327.5
91.4
172.4
142.7
161.3
156.0
285.9
258.7
158.9
162.0
327.5
91.6
171.5
142.7
161.0
156.0
284.8
262.1
159.3
162.4
327.8
92.0
168.1
143.0
160.8
156.0
281.3
262.1
159.2
163.1
342.2
91.7
166.6
142.8
'165.6
'156.0
'282.1
'257.9
'159.2
'162.8
'374.1
90.9
'167.4
'143.7
158.3
155.2
286.2
261.5
161.1
167.8
374.9
90.8
169.3
143.9
158.8
155.2
283.5
261.5
163.2
168 8
375.191.2
168.6
144.0
158.2
153.7
290.7
259.5
163.6
170.2
375.2
90.1
167.8
144.7
158.3
153.7
294.5
263.0
167.5
170.4
375.0
89.6
166.6
145.2
3678
3692
3711
3942
3944
3955
3995
3996
Electronic connectors (12/75 = 100)..............................................
Primary batteries, dry and w e t........................................................
Motor vehicles and car bodies (12/75 = 100)..................................
Dolls (12/75 = 100)......................................................................
Games, toys, and children's vehicles ..............................................
Carbon paper and inked ribbons (12/75 = 100) ..............................
Burial caskets (6/76 = 100) ..........................................................
Hard surface floor coverings (12/75 = 100)....................................
154.8
182.2
150.2
131.1
220.5
138.6
139.5
151.8
153.7
181.0
149.6
130.9
221.8
136.9
138.3
151.5
154.3
181.0
150.3
130.9
221.9
140.4
138.3
151.5
155.0
181.6
150.3
130.9
222.0
140.4
138.3
153.3
155.8
182.7
150.1
130.9
222.0
140.6
140.6
153.6
156.5
182.7
143.4
130.9
222.2
140.6
143.4
153.7
156.8
182.7
158.6
130.9
222.2
140.2
143.4
153.7
155.8
182.7
158.7
130.9
222.6
140.2
143.4
153.7
155.8
182.7
159.1
130.9
223.9
140.3
142.7
153.7
'155.9
'182.0
'159.8
'135.5
'228.4
140.3
142.7
155.1
156.9
185.0
154.5
136.2
229.9
140.3
143.8
155.2
157.1
191.2
154.7
136.2
231.4
140.3
145.3
156.1
156.7
195.4
154.5
136.5
231.4
140.3
145.3
156.1
158.1
194.9
156.7
136.5
231.7
140.5
149.3
156.3
1Data for January 1982 have been revised to reflect the availability of late reports and corrections by
respondents. All data are subject to revision 4 months after original publication.
Digitized for
94 FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
2 Not available,
r=revised.
PRODUCTIVITY DATA
P r o d u c t i v i t y d a t a are c o m p ile d b y th e B ureau o f L ab or
S ta tistic s from esta b lish m e n t d a ta an d from e stim a tes o f c o m
p e n sa tio n a n d o u tp u t su p p lied b y th e U .S . D ep a rtm en t o f
C o m m erce a n d th e F ed eral R eserv e B oard.
Definitions
Output is the constant dollar gross domestic product produced in a
given period. Indexes of output per hour of labor input, or labor pro
ductivity, measure the value of goods and services produced per hour
of labor. Compensation per hour includes wages and salaries of em
ployees plus employers’ contributions for social insurance and private
benefit plans. The data also include an estimate of wages, salaries, and
supplementary payments for the self-employed, except for nonfinancial corporations, in which there are no self-employed. Real com
pensation per hour is compensation per hour adjusted by the
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers.
U n it labor cost measures the labor compensation cost required to
produce one unit of output and is derived by dividing compensation
by output. U n it nonlabor payments include profits, depreciation, in
terest, and indirect taxes per unit of output. They are computed by
subtracting compensation of all persons from the current dollar gross
domestic product and dividing by output. In these tables, unit
nonlabor costs contain all the components of unit nonlabor payments
except unit profits. U n it profits include corporate profits and invento
ry valuation adjustments per unit of output.
The implicit price deflator is derived by dividing the current dollar
estimate of gross product by the constant dollar estimate, making the
deflator, in effect, a price index for gross product of the sector reported.
28.
The use of the term “man hours” to identify the labor component
of productivity and costs, in tables 28 through 31, has been discontin
ued. Hours of all persons is now used to describe the labor input of
payroll workers, self-employed persons, and unpaid family workers.
Output per all-employee hour is now used to describe labor productiv
ity in nonfinancial corporations where there are no self-employed.
Notes on the data
In the private business sector and the nonfarm business sector, the
basis for the output measure employed in the computation of output
per hour is Gross Domestic Product rather than Gross National
Product. Computation of hours includes estimates of nonfarm and
farm proprietor hours.
Output data are supplied by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S.
Department of Commerce, and the Federal Reserve Board. Quarterly
manufacturing output indexes are adjusted by the Bureau of Labor
Statistics to annual estimates of output (gross product originating)
from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Compensation and hours data
are from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Bureau of Labor
Statistics.
Beginning with the September 1976 issue of the Review, the produc
tivity tables were revised to reflect changeover to the new series— pri
vate business sector and nonfarm business sector— which differ from
the previously published total private economy and nonfarm sector in
that output imputed for owner-occupied dwellings and the household
and institutions sectors, as well as the statistical discrepancy, are
omitted. For a detailed explanation, see J. R. Norsworthy and L. J.
Fulco, “New sector definitions for productivity series,” M o n th ly L abor
Review, October 1976, pages 40-42.
Annual indexes of productivity, hourly compensation, unit costs, and prices, selected years, 1950-81
[1977=100]
Item
Private business sector:
Output per hour of all persons ........................
Compensation per hour ..................................
Real compensation per hour............................
Unit labor c o s t................................................
Unit nonlabor payments ..................................
Implicit price deflator ......................................
Nonfarm business sector:
Output per hour of all persons ........................
Compensation per hour ..................................
Real compensation per hour............................
Unit labor c o st................................................
Unit nonlabor payments ..................................
Implicit price deflator ......................................
Nonfinancial corporations:
Output per hour of all employees ....................
Compensation per hour ..................................
Real compensation per hour............................
Unit labor c o s t................................................
Unit nonlabor payments ..................................
Implicit price deflator ......................................
Manufacturing:
Output per hour of all persons ........................
Compensation per hour ..................................
Real compensation per hour............................
Unit labor c o s t................................................
Unit nonlabor payments ..................................
Implicit price deflator ......................................
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
50.3
20.0
50.4
39.8
43.5
41.0
58.2
26.3
59.6
45.2
47.8
46.1
65.1
33.9
69.4
52.1
50.8
51.7
78.2
41.7
80.0
53.3
57.8
54.8
86.1
58.2
90.8
67.6
63.4
66.2
92.7
78.0
95.9
84.2
78.9
82.4
94.8
85.5
96.3
90.2
90.7
90.4
97.9
92.9
98.8
94.8
94.4
94.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
99.8
108.4
100.7
108.6
105.1
107.4
99.5
119.3
99.6
119.9
110.9
116.9
99.3
131.5
96.7
132.4
118.3
127.6
100.4
144.6
96.3
144.0
130.6
139.4
56.2
21.8
55.0
38.8
42.8
40.2
62.7
28.3
63.9
45.1
47.9
46.0
68.2
35.6
73.0
52.3
50.5
51.7
80.4
42.8
82.2
53.2
58.2
54.9
86.7
58.6
91.5
67.6
64.0
66.4
93.1
78.4
96.4
84.3
76.1
81.6
95.0
86.0
96.8
90.5
88.9
899
98.1
93.0
99.0
94.8
94.0
94.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
99.8
108.5
100.7
108.7
103.6
107.0
99.1
119.0
99.3
120.0
108.5
116.2
98.8
130.8
96.2
132.4
117.6
127.4
99.7
143.9
95.9
144.3
130.4
139.7
79.9
43.0
82.6
53.8
60.8
56.2
85.4
58.3
91.0
68.3
63.1
66.5
91.3
77.6
95.4
85.1
75.7
81.8
94.4
85.5
96.3
90.6
90.9
90.7
97.4
92.5
98.5
95.0
95.0
95.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.4
108.2
100.5
107.8
103.8
106.4
100.4
118.7
99.1
118.2
108.3
114.8
101.0
130.7
96.2
129.4
117.3
125.2
103.5
143.9
95.9
139.0
132.3
136.7
74.6
42.9
82.3
57.4
70.3
61.2
79.2
57.6
89.9
72.7
66.0
707
90.9
76.4
93.9
84.1
70.4
80.1
93.5
85.5
96.3
91.4
88.5
90.6
97.7
92.4
98.3
94.6
95.1
94.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.9
108.2
100.5
107.3
104.7
106.5
102.0
118.8
99.2
116.5
105.7
113.4
101.7
131.6
96.8
129.4
108.7
123.4
104.0
146.2
97.4
140.6
122.6
135.4
(’)
(')
( 1)
( ')
(’ )
(’ )
( ')
( ’)
( ')
(’ )
(’ )
66.3
36.3
74.2
54.7
54.6
54.7
49.5
21.5
54.1
43.4
55.1
46.8
56.5
28.8
65.2
51.0
59.4
53.4
60.1
36.7
75.1
61.1
62.0
61.3
(’)
1981
1Not available.
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
95
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW July 1982 • Current Labor Statistics: Productivity
29.
Annual changes in productivity, hourly compensation, unit costs, and prices, 1971-81
Private business sector:
Output per hour of all persons ............................
Compensation per h o u r......................................
Real compensation per hour................................
Unit labor cost....................................................
Unit nonlabor payments......................................
Implicit price deflator ..........................................
Nonfarm business sector:
Output per hour of all persons ............................
Compensation per hour ......................................
Real compensation per hour................................
Unit labor cost....................................................
Unit nonlabor payments......................................
Implicit price deflator ..........................................
Nonfinancial corporations:
Output per hour of all employees ........................
Compensation per hour ......................................
Real compensation per hour................................
Unit labor cost....................................................
Unit nonlabor payments......................................
Implicit price deflator ..........................................
Manufacturing:
Output per hour of all persons ............................
Compensation per hou r......................................
Real compensation per hour................................
Unit labor cost....................................................
Unit nonlabor payments......................................
Implicit price deflator ..........................................
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
3.6
6.6
2.2
2.9
7.6
4.4
3.5
6.5
3.1
2.9
4.5
3.4
2.7
8.0
1.7
5.2
5.9
5.4
-2.3
9.4
-1.4
11.9
4.4
9.4
2.3
9.6
0.4
7.2
15.0
9.7
3.3
8.6
2.7
5.1
4.1
4.7
2.1
7.7
1.2
5.5
5,9
5.6
-0.2
8.4
0.7
8.6
5.1
7.4
-0,3
10.1
-1.1
10.4
5.5
8.8
-0.2
10.2
-2.9
10.4
6,6
9.2
1.1
10.0
-0.3
8.8
10.4
9.3
2.4
6.2
2.3
3.6
3.3
3.5
2.1
7.2
1.7
5.0
4.5
4.9
3.3
6.6
2.2
3.1
7.4
4.5
3.7
6.7
3.3
2.8
3.2
3.0
2.5
7.6
1.3
4.9
1.3
3.7
-2.4
9.4
-1.4
12.1
5.9
10.1
2.1
9.6
0.4
7,4
16.7
10.3
3.2
8,1
2.2
4.7
5.7
5.1
2.0
7.6
1.0
5.5
6.4
5.8
-0.2
8.5
0,7
8.7
3.6
7.0
-0.7
9.7
-1.4
10.4
4.8
8.6
-0.3
9.9
-3.2
10.3
8.4
9.7
0.9
10.0
-0.3
9.0
10,9
9.6
2.1
5.9
2.0
3.7
3.3
3.6
1.8
7.0
1.5
5.0
4.4
4.8
4.8
6.5
2.1
1.6
7.4
3.5
3.0
5.8
2.5
2.8
2.7
2.8
2.6
7.7
1.4
4.9
1.5
3.8
-3.4
9.7
-1.1
13.6
7.1
11.4
3.4
10.1
0.9
6.5
20.1
10.9
3.2
8.2
2.3
4.9
4.6
4.8
2.7
8.1
1.5
5.3
5.2
5.2
0.4
8.2
0.5
7.8
3.8
6.4
0.0
9.7
-1.4
9.7
4.4
7.9
0.6
10.1
-3.0
9.5
8.3
9.1
2.4
10.0
-0.3
7,4
12.8
9.2
(’ )
(’ )
(’ >
(’ )
( ')
(’ )
2.0
6.9
1.4
4.8
4.0
4.5
6.1
6.1
1.8
0.0
11.2
3.1
5.0
5.4
2.0
0.3
0.8
0.5
'5.4
7.2
0.9
1.7
-3.3
0.3
-2.4
10.6
-0.3
13.3
-1.8
9.0
2.9
11.9
2.5
8.8
25.9
13.1
4.4
8.0
2.1
3.4
7.4
4.6
2.4
8.3
1.7
5.7
5.2
5.6
0.9
8.2
0.5
7.3
4.7
6.5
1.1
9.8
-1.3
8.6
0.9
6,4
-0.3
10.7
-2.5
11.0
2.9
8.8
'2.2
11.1
0.7
8.7
12.7
9.7
2.6
5.8
2.0
3.1
'2.3
'2.8
2.6
6.9
1.4
4.1
'3.0
'3.8
1Not available.
30.
Annual rate
of change
Year
Item
1950-81
1960-81
r=revised.
Quarterly indexes of productivity, hourly compensation, unit costs, and prices, seasonally adjusted
[1977 = 1 0 0 ]
Item
Private business sector:
Output per hour of all persons ............................
Compensation per hour ......................................
Real compensation per hour................................
Unit labor cost....................................................
Unit nonlabor payments......................................
Implicit price deflator ..........................................
Nonfarm business sector:
Output per hour of all persons ............................
Compensation per h o u r......................................
Real compensation per hour................................
Unit labor cost....................................................
Unit nonlabor payments......................................
Implicit price deflator ..........................................
Nonfinancial corporations:
Output per hour of all employees........................
Compensation per hour ......................................
Real compensation per hour................................
Total unit costs ..................................................
Unit labor cost ............................................
Unit nonlabor costs......................................
Uni: profits ........................................................
Implicit price deflator ..........................................
Manufacturing:
Output per hour of all persons ............................
Compensation per hour ......................................
Real compensation per hour................................
Unit labor cost....................................................
r=revised.
96
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Quarterly indexes
Annual
average
1979
1980
1981
1982
1980
1981
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
99.3
131.5
96.7
132.4
118.3
127.6
100.4
144.6
96.3
144.0
130.6
139.4
99.4
120.7
99.2
121.4
111.5
118.1
99.1
123.2
98.0
124.3
112.2
120.2
99.5
126.4
96.7
127.0
115.2
123.0
99.1
130.1
96.6
131.3
116.0
126.1
99.4
133.1
96.9
133.9
119.7
129.1
99.1
135.9
96.0
137.1
122.7
132.2
100.3
139.8
96.1
139.4
127.6
135.4
101.2
143.3
96.9
141.6
129.3
137.5
100.9
146.5
96.3
145.2
132.4
140.9
99.2
148.5
95.8
149.7
132.6
143.9
98.9
'151.2
'96.8
'152.8
' 129 2
144.9
98.8
130.8
96.2
132.4
117.6
127.4
99.7
143.9
95.9
144.3
130.4
139.7
98.9
120.2
98.8
121.5
109.2
117.4
98.8
123.0
97.8
124.4
110.1
119.7
98.9
126.0
96.4
127.4
113.9
122.9
98.2
129.4
96.0
131.8
115.1
126.3
99.0
132.3
96.3
133.6
119.2
128.8
99.0
135.4
95.7
136.8
122.0
131.9
100.0
139.2
95.7
139.1
127.8
135.3
100.4
142.4
96.3
141.9
128.7
137.5
99.9
145.7
95.8
145.8
132.2
141.2
98.2
147.9
95.4
150.7
132.8
144.7
'98.3
'150.8
'96.5
'153.3
'129.7
'145.4
101.0
130.7
96.2
129.7
129.4
130.2
90.2
125.2
103.5
143.9
95.9
140.9
139.0
146.1
103.6
136.7
100.5
120.1
98,7
118.2
119.5
114.6
97.5
115.9
99.9
122.7
97.5
121.3
122.8
117.2
92.2
118.1
100.2
125.7
96.2
124.2
125.4
120.9
95.5
121.0
100.1
129.3
95.9
129.2
129.1
129.3
83.4
124.1
101.8
132.5
96.5
131.1
130.2
133.8
89.1
126.4
101.8
135.5
95.7
134.1
133.1
136.9
92.4
129.5
103.4
139.3
'95.8
136.0
134.7
139.5
106.8
132.7
104.0
142.4
96.3
138.7
137.0
143.6
102.8
134.7
103.8
145.5
95.7
142.2
140.2
147.7
106.7
138.2
102.4
148.0
'95.5
147.0
144.6
153.8
96.6
141.4
»102.3
»151.1
»96.7
»150.0
»147.7
»156.3
»80.7
»142.2
101.7
131.6
96.8
129.4
104.0
146.2
97.4
140.6
102.0
119.8
98.5
117.5
102.1
122.3
97.2
119.8
102.1
125.4
96.0
122.8
100.8
130.0
96.5
129.0
100.7
133.9
97.5
133.0
103.1
137.3
97.0
133.2
'103.9
141.1
97.1
'135.8
'104.8
144.8
97.9
'138.2
105.0
148.0
97.3
141.0
102.0
150.8
97.3
147.8
'100.7
154.7
99.0
'153.5
31. Percent change from preceding quarter and year in productivity, hourly compensation, unit costs, and prices,
seasonally adjusted at annual rate
[1977 = 100]
Percent change from same quarter a year ago
Quarterly percent change at annual rate
Private business sector:
Output per hour of all persons ....................
Compensation per hour ..............................
Real compensation per hour........................
Unit labor costs ..........................................
Unit nonlabor payments ..............................
Implicit price deflator ..................................
Nonfarm business sector:
Output per hour of all persons ....................
Compensation per hour ..............................
Real compensation per hour........................
Unit labor costs ..........................................
Unit nonlabor payments ..............................
Implicit price deflator ..................................
Nonfinancial corporations:
Output per hour of all employees ................
Compensation per hour ..............................
Real compensation per hour........................
Total unit costs ..........................................
Unit labor costs ......................................
Unit nonlabor costs..................................
Unit profits..................................................
Implicit price deflator ..................................
Manufacturing:
Output per hour of all persons ....................
Compensation per hour ..............................
Real compensation per hour........................
Unit labor costs ..........................................
1 1981
to
I 1982
IV 1979
to
IV 1980
1 1980
to
I 1981
II 1980
to
II 1981
III 1980
to
III 1981
IV 1980
to
IV 1981
'- 0 .9
'7.6
'4.2
8.6
-9.7
2.6
0.0
10.3
-2.0
10.3
9.3
10.0
0.8
10.6
-0.6
9.7
10.8
10.1
2.1
10.1
0.3
7.8
11.5
9.0
1.5
10.1
-0.6
8.5
10.6
9.1
9.3
-0.2
'9.3
8.1
8.9
-1.4
'8.2
'0.7
'9.7
'1.3
7.0
'- 6 .9
'6.3
'- 1 .4
'14.1
'- 1 .8
'10.1
'0.5
'7.9
'4.5
'7.3
'- 9 .0
'2.1
0.2
10.1
-2.2
9.9
10.8
10.2
1.2
10.5
-0.7
9.2
12.2
10.1
2.3
10.0
0.3
7.6
11.8
8.9
0.9
10.2
-0.6
9.2
10.9
9.7
-0.8
9.3
-0.2
10.1
8.8
9.7
'- 1 .7
'8.3
'0.8
'10.2
'1.5
7.5
-0.5
9.1
-2.5
10.3
9.7
11.8
15.7
10.7
-5.5
6.9
0.8
14.4
13.2
17.6
-32.6
9.6
p -0.3
p8.6
p5.2
p8.3
p8.9
p6.7
p51.4
p2.4
1.9
10.4
-1.9
10.5
8.4
16.8
0.3
9.6
3.2
10.8
-0.4
9.5
7.4
15.4
11.8
9.7
3.8
10.1
0.4
7.4
6.1
11.1
23.3
8.6
2.0
9.9
-0.8
8.4
7.7
10.4
19.7
9.3
0.6
9.2
-0.3
9.6
8.6
12.3
4.5
9.2
p - t.1
p8.5
p0.9
»10.3
p9.7
»12.0
p -24.4
»7.2
'0.9
9.3
-2.4
r8.3
r -11.0
7.6
-0.2
'20.9
'- 4 .9
'10.7
'7.2
'16.5
1.0
12.3
-0.2
11.2
'1.8
12.5
1.1
'10.6
'4.0
11.4
1.5
'7.1
'4.3
10.5
-0.2
6.0
-1.1
9.8
0.3
'11.0
-3.0
9.6
2.0
13.0
III 1981
to
IV 1981
IV 1981
to
1 1982
-1.1
9.3
-2.3
10.6
10.1
10.4
' -6.6
5.5
-2.1
r 13.0
'0.4
'8.9
1.4
9.6
2.5
8.1
3.0
6.5
-1.7
9.5
-2.2
11.5
11.3
11.4
6.6
11.7
0.3
5.6
4.8
7.9
77.9
10.4
2.2
9.3
2.1
8.4
7.0
12.3
-13.9
6.2
r3.1
11.6
-0.2
'8.2
'3.5
10.8
3.5
r7.0
III 1980
to
IV 1980
IV 1980
to
I 1981
I 1981
to
II 1981
II 1981
to
III 1981
-1.1
8.6
-3.8
9.8
10.2
9.9
4.7
11.9
0.5
6.9
17.1
10.0
3.5
10.4
3.2
6.6
5.3
6.2
-0.2
9.8
-2.7
10.1
9.9
10.0
4,4
11.7
0.3
7.0
20.2
11.0
0.0
9.4
-3.1
9.4
9.4
9.5
15.7
9.9
r9.8
10.5
-2.2
0.6
0.0
r=revised.
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
97
WAGE AND COMPENSATION DATA
Data for the Employment Cost Index are reported to the
Bureau of Labor Statistics by a sample of 2,000 private non
farm establishments and 750 State and local government units
selected to represent total employment in those sectors. On
average, each reporting unit provides wage and compensation
information on five well-specified occupations.
Data on negotiated wage and benefit changes are obtained
from contracts on file at the Bureau, direct contact with the
parties, and secondary sources.
Definitions
The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a quarterly measure of the
average change in the cost of employing labor. The rate of total com
pensation, which comprises wages, salaries, and employer costs for
employee benefits, is collected for workers performing specified tasks.
Employment in each occupation is held constant over time for all se
ries produced in the ECI, except those by region, bargaining status,
and area. As a consequence, only changes in compensation are meas
ured. Industry and occupational employment data from the 1970 Cen
sus of Population are used in deriving constant weights for the ECI.
While holding total industry and occupational employment fixed, in
the estimation of indexes by region, bargaining status, and area, the
employment in those measures is allowed to vary over time in accord
with changes in the sample. The rate of change (in percent) is avail
able for wages and salaries, as well as for total compensation. Data
are collected for the pay period including the 12th day of the survey
months of March, June, September, and December. The statistics are
neither annualized nor adjusted for seasonal influence.
Wages and salaries consist of earnings before payroll deductions, ex
cluding premium pay for overtime, work on weekends and holidays,
and shift differentials. Production bonuses, incentive earnings, com
missions, and cost-of-living adjustments are included; nonproduction
bonuses are included with other supplemental pay items in the bene
fits category; and payments-in-kind, free room and board, and tips are
excluded. B enefits include supplemental pay, insurance, retirement and
savings plans, and hours-related and legally required benefits.
D ata on negotiated wage changes apply to private nonfarm industry
collective bargaining agreements covering 1,000 workers or more.
Data on compensation changes apply only to those agreements cover
ing 5,000 workers or more. F irst-year wage or compensation changes
refer to average negotiated changes for workers covered by settle
ments reached in the period and implemented within the first 12
months after the effective date of the agreement. C hanges over the life
Digitized for
98FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
o f the agreem en t refer to all adjustments specified in the contract,
expressed as an average annual rate. These measures exclude wage
changes that may occur under cost-of-living adjustment clauses, that
are triggered by movements in the Consumer Price Index. W age-rate
changes are expressed as a percent of straight-time hourly earnings;
com pensation changes are expressed as a percent of total wages and
benefits.
Effective wage adjustments reflect all negotiated changes implemented
in the reference period, regardless of the settlement date. They include
changes from settlements reached during the period, changes deferred
from contracts negotiated in an earlier period, and cost-of-living ad
justments. The data also reflect contracts providing for no wage ad
justment in the period. Effective adjustments and each of their
components are prorated over all workers in bargaining units with at
least 1,000 workers.
Notes on the data
The Employment Cost Index data series began in the fourth quar
ter of 1975, with the quarterly percent change in wages and salaries in
the private nonfarm sector. Data on employer costs for employee bene
fits were included in 1980, to produce a measure of the percent
change in employers’ cost for employees’ total compensation. State
and local government units were added to the ECI coverage in 1981,
providing a measure of total compensation change in the civilian non
farm economy.
Data for the broad white-collar, blue-collar, and service worker
groups, and the manufacturing, nonmanufacturing, and service indus
try groups are presented at the ECI. Additional occupation and in
dustry detail are provided for the wages and salaries component of
total compensation in the private nonfarm sector. For State and local
government units, additional industry detail is shown for both total
compensation and its wages and salaries component.
Historical indexes (June 1981 = 100) of the quarterly rates of chang
es presented in the ECI are also available.
For a more detailed discussion of the ECI, see chapter 25, “The
Employment Cost Index,” of the BLS H an d b o o k o f M ethods (Bulletin
1910), and the M o n th ly L a b o r R eview articles: “Employment Cost In
dex: a measure of change in the ‘price of labor,’” July 1975; “How
benefits will be incorporated into the Employment Cost Index,” Janu
ary 1978; and “The Employment Cost Index: recent trends and ex
pansion,” May 1982.
Additional data for the ECI and other measures of wage and com
pensation changes appear in C urrent W age D evelopm ents, a monthly
periodical of the Bureau.
32.
Employment Cost Index, total compensation
[June 1981=100]
Percent change
'
1981
1980
1982
Series
Private nonfarm workers
Workers, by occupational group
White-collar workers ......................................................
Blue-collar workers........................................................
Serv.ce workers ............................................................
Workers, by industry division
Manufacturing................................................................
Nonmanufacturing..........................................................
March 1982
Dec.
100.0
102.6
104.5
106.3
1.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
102.7
102.3
102.8
104.9
104.1
104.2
106.5
105.7
107.2
1.5
1.5
2.9
—
—
—
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
102.1
102.8
104.4
104.3
104.0
104.8
107.1
106.0
106.0
106.4
108.2
108.1
1.9
1.5
1.0
2.0
—
—
98.1
100.0
102.0
104.0
105.8
1.7
7.8
100.0
100.0
100.0
101.8
102.2
101.9
104.0
104.0
103.1
105.8
105.6
106.7
1.7
1.5
3.5
7.6
8.0
7.5
100.0
100.0
102.1
102.0
104.0
103.9
106.0
105.7
1.9
1.7
8.2
7.6
June
Sept.
Dec.
March
June
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
-
—
—
—
-
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
88.6
90.7
92.8
94.7
March
—
-
88.7
88.3
899
90.8
90.5
90.8
926
93.0
92.7
94.5
94.9
94.3
98.3
97.8
99.3
88.7
88.6
90.5
90.8
92.6
92.9
94.7
94.7
98.0
98.2
—
—
—
-
-
100.0
105.3
107.4
108.8
1.3
_
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
100.0
100.0
105.7
104.2
107.8
105.9
109.1
108.2
1.2
2.2
—
—
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
105.8
106.0
106.3
105.0
104.3
107.9
107.9
108.3
107.8
106.0
109.0
108.9
109.3
109.5
108.1
1.0
.9
.9
1.6
2.0
—
—
—
—
State and local government workers
Workers, by occupational group
White-collar workers ......................................................
Blue-collar workers ........................................................
Workers, by industry division
Services........................................................................
Schoo'S ....................................................................
Elementary and secondary......................................
Hospitals and other services3 ......................................
Public administration2 ....................................................
'Excludes private household and Federal workers.
Consists of legislative, judicial, administrative, and regulatory activities.
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
12 months
ended
Sept.
March
Civilian nonfarm workers’
Workers, by occupational group
White-collar workers ......................................................
Blue-collar workers ........................................................
Service workers ............................................................
Workers, by industry division
Manufacturing................................................................
Nonmanufacturing..........................................................
Services....................................................................
Public administration2 ..................................................
3 months
ended
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
includes, for example, library, social, and health services.
Note: Dashes indicate data not available.
99
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW July 1982 • Current Labor Statistics: Wage and Compensation Data
33.
Employment Cost Index, wages and salaries, by bargaining status, region, and area size
[June 1981 = 100]
Percent change
March
1981
December
1981
March
1982
Union................................................................
Manufacturing................................................
Nonmanufacturing..........................................
97.6
—
—
104.8
104.6
105,0
Nonunion ..........................................................
Manufacturing................................................
Nonmanufacturing..........................................
98.4
_
Series
3 months ended
12 months ended
March
1981
December
1981
1.6
1.6
1.7
11,8
-
10.7
~~
9.1
—
~
1.8
1.7
1.8
1.7
2.1
1.6
10.2
~
9.4
-
7.0
-
3.6
4.1
2.0
1.4
1.5
2.9
10.9
10.4
9.9
9.6
7.7
8.3
106.5
105.9
107.0
1.7
1.7
1.7
2.2
2.0
2.3
1.4
1.1
1.7
10.2
10.1
10.4
9.6
8,9
10.2
9.3
8.4
10.2
103.2
103.3
103.2
105.6
105.9
105,5
3.3
2.7
3.5
1.6
1.6
1.6
2.3
2.5
2.2
8.9
7.6
9.4
8.5
8.3
8.6
7.5
8.2
7.3
98.3
98.0
98.1
97.9
104.4
102.8
103.3
105.1
106.1
105.7
104.7
107.9
2.4
3.3
3.0
2.7
2.7
.9
1.7
1.8
1.6
2.8
1.4
2.7
8.5
9.3
9.4
10.9
8.8
8.3
8.4
10.3
7.9
7.9
6.7
10.2
97.9
98.3
104.0
103.1
105.9
106.0
2.6
3.3
1.9
1.3
1.8
2.8
9.5
9,1
9.0
8.4
8.2
7.8
March
1981
December
1981
106.5
106.3
106.8
3.1
—
2.2
2.2
2.2
103.5
103.5
103.5
105.3
105.7
105.2
4.0
_
98.1
98.1
104.1
103.2
105.7
106.2
Workers, by bargaining status'
Union ..............................................................
Manufacturing................................................
Nonmanufacturing..........................................
97.4
97.7
97.1
105.0
104.7
105.2
Nonunion ..........................................................
Manufacturing................................................
Nonmanufacturing..........................................
98.2
97.9
98.3
Workers, by region'
Northeast ..........................................................
South................................................................
North Centrai ....................................................
West ................................................................
Workers, by area size'
Metropolitan areas ............................................
Other areas ......................................................
March
1982
March
1982
COMPENSATION
Workers, by bargaining status'
Workers, by area size'
Metropolitan areas ............................................
Other areas ......................................................
WAGES AND SALARIES
'The indexes are calculated differently from those for the occupation and industry groups. For
a detailed description of the index calculation, see BLS Handbook of Methods, Bulletin 1910.
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100 Bank of St. Louis
Federal Reserve
34.
Employment Cost Index, wages and salaries, by occupation and industry group
[June 1981=100]
Percent change
1982
1981
1980
Series
3 months
ended
12 months
ended
March 1982
March
June
Sept.
Dec.
March
June
Sept.
Dec.
March
-
-
-
-
-
100.0
102.5
104.4
106.3
1.8
-
_
_
_
—
—
-
-
—
—
102.6
102.4
102.5
104.7
104.0
103.6
106.7
105.5
106.8
1.9
1.4
3.1
—
-
100.0
100.0
100.0
_
_
_
_
—
_
—
—
—
-
-
-
-
-
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
102.1
102.7
104.4
103.8
104.0
104.5
106.6
105.5
105.9
106.5
108.6
107.5
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.9
—
—
_
89.6
91.5
93.5
95.4
98.0
100.0
102.0
103.8
105.9
2.0
8.1
Workers, by occupational group
White-collar workers ......................
Professional and technical workers
Managers and administrators
Salesworkers ............................
Clerical workers ........................
Blue-collar workers........................
Craft and kindred workers ..........
Operatives, except transport
Transport equipment operatives ..
Nonfarm laborers ......................
Service workers ............................
89.7
89.2
90.6
88.5
90.3
89.3
89.3
89.4
89.1
89.6
90.8
91.4
90.8
92.0
90.7
91.9
91.6
91.4
91.5
92.2
91.8
91.9
93.3
93.2
93.5
92.2
93.8
93.8
94.0
93.6
93.5
93.9
93.4
95.2
95.3
94.7
94.8
95.7
95.7
96.1
95.5
95.3
95.7
94.8
98.1
98.2
98.6
96.2
98.6
97.7
97.8
97.8
96.8
97.5
99.2
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
101.8
103.3
101.6
98.0
102.7
102.3
102.9
102.1
101.0
101.5
101.8
103.9
105.5
102.8
101.9
104.2
103.9
104.3
104.1
102.7
103.3
102.7
106.2
108.0
105.8
102.2
107.0
105.4
106.2
105.4
103.2
104.1
106.7
2.2
2.4
2.9
.3
2.7
1.4
1.8
1.2
.5
.8
3.9
8.3
10.0
7.3
6.2
8.5
7.9
8.6
7.8
6.6
6.8
7.6
Workers, by industry division
Manufacturing....................................
Durables........................................
Nondurables..................................
Nonmanufacturing..............................
Construction..................................
Transportation and public utilities . . .
Wholesale and retail trade..............
Wholesale trade ........................
Retail trade................................
Finance, insurance, and real estate ..
Services........................................
89.9
89.3
91.0
89.5
89.3
88.2
90.5
89.7
90.8
87.1
90.5
91.8
91.2
92.7
91.3
91.9
90.2
92.2
92.1
92.2
89.4
91.9
93.6
93.5
93.8
93.4
94.5
93.1
93.6
93.0
93.8
91.2
94.2
95.7
95.7
95.7
95.2
95.9
95.6
95.1
95.9
94.8
93.1
95.7
97.9
97.9
97.8
98.1
97.6
97.7
98.2
98.5
98.1
95.7
99.6
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
102.1
102,1
102.0
102.0
103.0
102.0
101.3
102.0
101.0
98.3
103.6
104.0
104.5
103.1
103.8
104.3
103.6
102.3
103.4
101.9
102.3
105.8
105.9
106.3
105.3
105.9
105.9
105.7
103.9
106.3
103.0
103.7
108.8
1.8
1.7
2.1
2.0
1.5
2.0
1.6
2.8
1.1
1.4
2.8
8.2
8.6
7.7
8.0
8.5
8.2
5.8
7.9
5.0
8.4
9.2
-
-
-
-
-
100.0
105.0
107.0
108.2
1.1
-
_
_
_
100.0
100.0
105.4
103.9
107.5
105.5
108.5
107.5
.9
1.9
-
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
105.5
105.7
106.0
104.6
103.3
107.6
107.7
107.9
107.3
105.5
108.4
108.3
108.7
108.8
107.5
.7
.6
.7
1.4
1.9
—
—
—
Civilian nonfarm workers'
Workers, by occupational group
White-collar workers ......................
Blue-collar workers........................
Service workers ............................
Workers, by Industry division
Manufacturing................................
Nonmanufacturing..........................
Services....................................
Public administration2 ..................
All private nonfarm workers3
State and local governments ..............
Workers, by occupational group
White-collar workers ......................
Blue-collar workers........................
Workers, by industry division
Services........................................
Schools ....................................
Elementary and secondary
Hospitals and other services4
Public administration2 ....................
-
-
-
-
-
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
_
_
'Excludes private household and Federal workers.
Consists of legislative, judicial, administrative, and regulatory activities.
3 Excludes private household workers.
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
—
-
-
11Includes, for example, library, social, and health services.
N ote: Dashes indicate data not available.
101
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW July 1982 • Current Labor Statistics: Wage and Compensation Data
35.
Wage and compensation change, major collective bargaining settlements, 1977 to date
[In percent]
Quarterly average
Annual average
Measure
1980
1981
1978
1979
1980
1981
1
II
III
IV
I
8.3
6.3
9.0
6.6
10.4
7.1
10.2
8.3
8.8
6.7
10.2
7.4
11.4
7.2
8.5
6.1
First year of contract....................
Annual rate over life of contract . . .
7.6
6.4
7.4
6.0
9.5
7.1
9.8
7.9
8.2
6.5
9.1
7.3
10.5
7.4
Manufacturing:
First year of contract....................
Annual rate over life of contract . . .
8.3
6.6
6.9
5.4
7.4
5.4
7.2
6.1
7.2
5.7
6.7
5.1
Nonmanufacturing (excluding
construction):
First year of contract....................
Annual rate over life of contract . . .
8.0
6.5
7.6
6.2
9.5
6.6
9.8
7.3
9.4
7.6
Construction:
First year of contract....................
Annual rate over life of contract . . .
6.5
6.2
8.8
8.3
13.6
11.5
13.5
11.3
10.8
9:1
1982
II
III
IV
7.7
7.2
11.6
10.8
10.5
8.1
11.0
5.8
1.8
1.1
8.3
6.5
7.1
6.2
11.8
9.7
10.8
8.7
9.0
5.7
2.2
2.0
8.4
5.6
7.8
5.8
6.4
5.5
8.2
6.7
9.0
7.5
6.6
5.4
1.9
1.8
10.3
8.5
9.5
5.9
8.2
6.8
8.0
7.3
11.8
9.1
8.6
7.2
9.6
5.6
1.8
1.4
12.2
10.4
15.4
13.0
14.3
12.0
11.4
10.3
12.9
11.1
16.4
12.4
11.4
11.7
9.3
8.9
IP
Total compensation changes covering
5,000 workers or more, all
industries:
First year of contract....................
Annual rate over life of contract . . .
Wage rate changes covering at least
1,000 workers, all industries:
36.
Effective wage adjustments in collective bargaining units covering 1,000 workers or more, 1977 to date
Year
Year and quarter
1980
Measure
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982 p
1981
I
II
III
IV
1
II
III
IV
I
Average percent adjustment (including no change):
All industries....................................................
Manufacturing..............................................
Nonmanufacturing........................................
8.0
8.4
7.6
8.2
8.6
7.9
9.1
9.6
8.8
9.9
10.2
9.7
9.5
9.4
9.5
1.6
2.0
1.3
3.3
3.4
3.2
3.5
2.9
4.0
1.3
1.7
1.1
1.7
2.3
1.2
3.2
2.4
3.8
3.3
3.1
3.4
1.5
1.9
1.1
.9
.8
1.0
From settlements reached in period ......................
Deferred from settlements reached in earlier period .
From cost-of-living clauses....................................
3.0
3.2
1.7
2.0
3.7
2.4
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.6
3.5
2.8
2.5
3.8
3.2
.4
.5
.7
1.0
1.4
.8
1.7
1.2
.7
.5
.3
.6
.4
.5
.7
1.1
1.4
.7
.5
1.5
1.2
.4
.4
.6
.1
.5
.2
Total number of workers receiving wage change (in
thousands)1 ....................................................
—
—
—
—
8,648
—
—
—
-
3,855
4,701
4,364
3,225
2,713
—
—
—
—
2,270
—
—
—
—
579
909
540
604
153
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
6,267
4,593
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
888
2,639
2,055
2,669
3,023
2,934
882
2,179
1,033
1,750
145
_
—
4,937
4,092
4,428
5,568
6,176
From settlements reached
in period........................................................
Deferred from settlements
reached in earlier period ..................................
From cost-of-living clauses....................................
Number of workers receiving no adjustments (in
thousands) ....................................................
1The total number of workers who received adjustments does not equal the sum of workers that
received each type of adjustment, because some workers received more than one type of adjustment
during the period.
Digitized for102
FRASER
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
WORK STOPPAG E DATA
Estimates of days idle as a percent of estimated working time meas
W ork stoppages include all known strikes or lockouts involving 1,000
workers or more and lasting a full shift or longer. Data are based
ures only the impact of larger strikes (1,000 workers or more). For
largely on newspaper accounts and cover all workers idle one shift or
merly, these estimates measured the impact of strikes involving 6
more in establishments directly involved in a stoppage. They do not
workers or more; that is, the impact of virtually a ll strikes. Due to
measure the indirect or secondary effect on other establishments
budget stringencies, collection of data on strikes involving 6 workers
whose employees are idle owing to material or service shortages.
or more was discontinued with the December 1981 data.
37.
Work stoppages involving 1,000 workers or more, 1947 to date
Month and year
1974 .
1981:
January..............................................................
February ............................................................
May ..................................................................
1982 p
January..............................................................
February ............................................................
May ..................................................................
Beginning in
month or year
Days idle
Workers involved
Number of stoppages
In effect
during month
or year
Beginning in
month or year
(in thousands)
In effect
during month
(in thousands)
Number
(in thousands)
Percent of
estimated
working time
270
245
262
424
1,629
1,435
2,537
1,698
25,720
26,127
43,420
30,390
.22
.38
.26
415
470
437
265
363
1,462
2,746
1,623
1,075
2,055
15,070
48,820
18,130
16,630
21,180
.12
.38
.14
.13
.16
287
279
332
245
222
1,370
887
1,587
1,381
896
26,840
10,340
17,900
60,850
13,260
.20
.07
.13
.43
.09
195
211
181
246
268
1,031
793
512
1,183
999
10,140
11,760
10,020
16,220
15,140
.07
.08
.07
.11
.10
321
381
392
412
381
1,300
2,192
1,855
1,576
2,468
16,000
31,320
35,567
29,397
52,761
.10
.18
.20
.16
.29
298
250
317
424
235
2,516
975
1,400
1,796
965
35,538
16,764
16,260
31,809
17,563
.19
.09
.08
.16
.09
231
298
219
235
187
1,519
1,212
t',006
1,021
795
23,962
21,258
23,774
20,409
20,844
.12
.10
.11
.09
.09
145
729
16,908
.07
6
7
16
17
18
12
10
20
27
27
12.0
10.7
201.6
48.0
85.1
29.6
20.9
207.8
223.5
259.0
257.9
118.5
861.8
4,085.2
4,454.0
.01
.01
.04
.20
.24
2
2
r3
8
13
4
6
r8
r 15
19
6.1
2.5
r8.3
34.7
42.7
11.4
13.9
r 21.3
r54.3
58.3
199.9
236.9
r 352.2
r 478.3
599.1
.01
.01
.02
.02
.03
r=revised.
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