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monthly labor review
U.S. Je pa.Inherit of Labor
Bureau of Labor Statistics
August 1986
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
In this issue:
FOUR ARTICLES ON EMPLOYMENT:
in 1986’s first half, in retail trade,
and in health services and hospitals
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
William E. Brock, Secretary
Regional Commissioners
for Bureau of Labor Statistics
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August cover:
“ Young Woman in Netherlandish Dress,” a
1521 ink and wash drawing by Albrecht Durer
(1471-1528); from the Widener Collection of
the National Gallery of Art, Washington, DC;
photograph courtesy of the National Gallery.
Cover design by Melvin B. Moxley
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Washington
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
AUGUST 1986
VOLUME 109, NUMBER 8
Henry Lowenstern, Editor-in-Chief
Robert W. Fisher, Executive Editor
Susan E. Shank
3
Employment up, unemployment stable during 1986 first half
Moderate job growth continued, but only in the service sector and in construction;
the jobless rate remained unchanged, as employment gains matched labor force growth
Steven E. Haugen
S The employment expansion in retail trade, 1973-85
Strong employment gains in the industry can be mostly attributed to exceptional growth
in eating and drinking places and food stores; more than 1 worker in 3 is a part-timer
Anne Kahl, Donald E. Clark
17
Employment in health services: long-term trends and projections
Demand for health services is expected to grow, but job prospects to 1995 are uncertain
because of changes that will affect both the financing and delivery of health care
Eileen Appelbaum,
Cherlyn S. Granrose
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
37
Hospital employment under revised medicare payment schedules
A case study of the effect of medicare payments based on Diagnosis Related Groups
suggests that cost cutting by hospitals will result in smaller but higher skilled staffs
DEPARTMENTS
2 Labor month in review
46 Major agreements expiring next month
48 Developments in industrial relations
50 Book reviews
53 Current labor statistics
Labor M onth
In Review
CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS. A
subcommittee of the Congressional Joint
Economic Committee conducted hearings
in late July on the likely social and
economic effects of projected population
shifts. Some highlights:
Rep. James H. Scheuer of New York, sub
committee chairman: Four problem areas
already are apparent: First is the aging of
the population, as women have fewer
children, people live longer, and the babyboom generation grows older. This
development will cause major changes in
the labor market, in the nature of retire
ment, in social security, and in the health
care system.
Second, we will see big changes in the
labor force. The baby boomers born dur
ing the 1950’s and 1960’s are just now
entering their prime working years and are
swelling demand for good, well-paid jobs.
As they approach retirement, there are
many fewer young people coming behind
to take their places. Thus, the economy is
going to have to adjust from an abun
dance of workers to the possibility of a real
shortage.
Third, children will be a declining frac
tion of the population. Already children
make up the majority of Americans in
poverty. We are going to have to protect
the needs of our children even as we strug
gle to meet the needs of other population
groups, particularly the very old.
Fourth, blacks and other minorities will
make up an increasing share of the
population. These groups bear a
disproportionate share of poverty and
unemployment. One of the major
challenges facing the public and private
sectors is to provide education and job
training to these groups.
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
William E. Brock, Secretary of Labor,
pointed to some positive implications of
this demographic picture: A slower rate of
labor force growth suggests tighter labor
markets, which should foster the employ
ment of youth, minorities, women, and
the handicapped and a narrowing of oc
cupational and earnings gaps. And a more
mature work force implies greater ex
perience, stability, reliability, and pro
ductivity.
We have the opportunity to take ad
vantage of projected developments and
deal meaningfully with some of the more
significant problems our society now
faces. But, we must be bold and creative
if we are to meet this challenge,
specifically by promoting dynamism,
flexibility, and adaptability in the
economy and labor force.
Janet L. Norwood, Commissioner of
Labor Statistics, cited the demonstrated
ability of the economy to accommodate
large influxes of workers—specifically,
women and baby-boom cohorts—
although minority groups remain at a
severe disadvantage.
The challenge is to make the jobs the
economy generates in coming years ac
commodate the emerging labor force.
On the one hand, projected strong
growth in highly skilled professional,
managerial, and technical occupations
will make it easier for the growing pro
portion of college educated workers to
fulfill their job expectations. On the
other hand, the shift away from factory
operative and laborer occupations may
make it more difficult for persons with
less education to find jobs.
John G. Keane, director of the Census
Bureau, addressed the implications of an
aging society: Tomorrow’s elderly will
be very different from today’s in their
ability to function effectively in old age.
For example, the relatively high educa
tional attainment of the baby-boom
generation bodes well for their lifetime
economic status. Another indication
that the retirement experience will be
quite different in the future is based on
changes in occupational patterns.
Tomorrow’s elderly women, for exam
ple, will be much more likely to have
been in occupations covered by social
security and other pension plans, and
thus should be in better financial shape
than their grandmothers are today.
Roger D. Semerad, Assistant Secretary
of Labor for Employment and Training,
examined the public policy implications
of the population trends through the
year 2000, emphasizing the importance
of looking ahead to anticipate potential
problems rather than merely reacting to
the pressure of immediate concerns.
Among the more important considera
tions: ensuring that individuals achieve
minimum levels of educational com
petency; providing quality, educationoriented child care for two-earner
families and single parents; orienting
workers to a process of lifelong learning
and repeated retraining for new and
restru ctu red jo b s, and involving
employers in the reeducation process;
assisting workers in adjusting to occupa
tional dislocation; encouraging more
cooperative labor-management rela
tions; and developing alternatives to
retirement, including nontraditional
work schedules and part-time jobs, for
older workers.
D
Employment up, unemployment
stable in the first half of 1986
Moderate job growth continued, but only
in the service-producing sector and in construction;
the level and rate of unemployment were about unchanged,
as employment increases matched labor force expansion
S u sa n E. S hank
Employment rose at a steady, though unspectacular, pace in
the first 6 months of 1986. However, as the economy moved
into the fourth year of recovery following the 1981-82 re
cession, the number of unemployed persons and the unem
ployment rate were little changed. Civilian employment in
creases slowed during 1985 and the first half of 1986 from
the very robust gains evident in the 2 years immediately
after the recession trough. Similarly, the civilian jobless
rate, which had dropped sharply during the first 2 years of
the recovery, declined only moderately in 1985 and then
leveled off at about 7 percent in early 1986.
Job gains during the first half of 1986 took place entirely
in the service-producing sector and construction. In con
trast, manufacturing employment declined, and the number
of mining jobs dropped precipitously— due mainly to the
steep fall in oil prices and the consequent layoffs in oil
and gas extraction. Most of these developments represented
a continuation of the patterns evident during 1985 and
reflected both the long-term trend toward the serviceproducing sector and cyclical developments. The weakness
in the goods-producing sector has been especially pro
nounced in the 1980’s, as employment has declined in abso
lute numbers, augmenting the longer-term decline in rela
tive terms. This sector failed to regain all the jobs lost during
the 1980-82 recessions, and its second quarter 1986 em
ployment level (25 million) was about 1.7 million below the
July 1979 all-time high.1
This article summarizes labor market developments in the
Susan E. Shank is an economist in the Division of Employment and Unem
ployment Analysis, Office o f Employment and Unemployment Statistics,
Bureau o f Labor Statistics.
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
first half of 1986 and compares them to earlier periods in the
current economic expansion, as well as to long-term trends.
The data are from two sources: household interviews and
employer reports.2 Changes during the first half of 1986
refer to movements in seasonally adjusted data from the
fourth quarter of 1985 to the second quarter of 1986. Refer
ences to the last 2>\ years cover the period from fourth quar
ter 1982 to second quarter 1986, and the last \ \ years pertain
to 1985 and the first half of 1986.
Employment
Only three of the previous seven economic expansions in
the post-World War II period lasted as long as the current
one (43 months as of June 1986). The growth rate for civil
ian employment in the first
years of this expansion was
10 percent, substantially more than the increases during
comparable periods after the 1948-49 and 1960-61 reces
sions, but less than the nearly 13-percent rise following the
1973-75 recession. The robust employment increase in the
late 1970’s was unusual, because it accelerated in the third
and fourth years after the recession. The more typical pat
tern has been for employment to rebound sharply in the first
I5 to 2 years following a recession trough and then to show
moderate growth in subsequent quarters.3
The current expansion adhered to the usual pattern of a
strong initial rebound followed by slower but steady job
growth. In the first half of 1986, the number of employed
persons rose by about 900,000 (after allowance for the revi
sions introduced into the household survey in January
1986),4 proportionately less than the gains posted earlier in
the recovery. At 109.2 million in the second quarter of
1986, civilian employment had expanded by just about
3
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
August 1986 •
Employment in First-Half 1986
10 million from the recession trough in the fourth quarter of
1982— with 7 million of the increase occurring in the first
2 years of the recovery and about 3 million coming in the
last 1^ years.
up only slightly. The service occupations have experienced
only moderate growth throughout the last 3 years, while
farming, forestry, and fishing jobs have declined.
Age and sex. Virtually all of the employment increase
during the first 6 months of 1986, as well as throughout the
current expansion, has been among adults. (See table 1.)
Over the
years since the end of the recession, employ
ment rose by about 5 million each for adult men and adult
women, while teenage employment was essentially flat.
(However, the teenage employment-population ratio rose in
the recovery, offsetting declines in their population.) During
the first 2 years of recovery, employment gains for men
outpaced those for women, as male employment rebounded
strongly from the very sharp job cutbacks experienced dur
ing the recession. However, in the past \ \ years, the em
ployment increase for women exceeded that for men
(2.1 versus 1.2 million).
The number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls
averaged nearly 100 million in the second quarter of 1986.
In the 3\ years since the recession trough, payroll employ
ment has increased by about 11.0 million, with 7.3 million
of the gain coming in the first 2 years of recovery and just
under 4 million taking place in the last \ \ years. (See table
2.) The moderation in the pace of job growth since late 1984
occurred entirely in the goods-producing sector. The follow
ing tabulation shows the change (in millions) in nonfarm
jobs in service- and goods-producing industries for selected
periods:
Occupation. Consistent with overall movements, employ
ment increases for most major occupational groups slowed
in 1985 and 1986. Moreover, the composition of the job
movements by occupation changed markedly.5 Nonfarm
manual occupations registered very strong gains in the early
phase of the economic rebound— 7.7 percent for skilled
workers and 5.6 percent for semi- and low-skilled workers.
The following tabulation shows the percent change in em
ployment for major occupations based on averages for the
first 6 months of 1983-86:
1983-84
All occupations ..........
Managerial and professional ..
Technical, sales, and
administrative ....................
S ervice....................................
Precision production, craft,
and rep air............................
Operators, fabricators, and
laborers ..............................
Farming, forestry, and fishing.
1984-85
1985-86
4.9
5.6
2.3
3.7
2.2
2.5
4.3
3.8
2.6
1.7
3.0
2.0
7.7
2.8
.2
5.6
-3 .1
.3
-1 .1
2.3
-1 .7
From 1984 to 1985, the expansion was greatest for office
workers, especially highly educated managerial and profes
sional workers, while growth slowed for precision produc
tion, craft, and repair workers and almost halted for opera
tives, fabricators, and laborers.
Between 1985 and 1986, office occupations— particu
larly technical, sales, and administrative support posi
tions— continued to register the largest increases. The small
rise for skilled manual workers took place entirely in the
construction trades. Similarly, the employment gain among
operators, fabricators, and laborers was led by an extremely
large increase for construction laborers. In contrast, the
number of machine operators, assemblers, and inspectors
(almost all of whom are employed in manufacturing) edged
4
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Industrial developments
GoodsServiceTotal producing producing
Nov. 1982 to May 1986
Nov. 1982 to Nov. 1984
Nov. 1984 to May 1986
11.2
7.3
3.9
9.2
5.3
3.9
2.0
2.0
.0
As shown, goods-producing employment rebounded
strongly in the 2 years immediately following the recession,
but then showed no net gain in the subsequent 18 months.
In contrast, service-producing employment grew robustly,
and at a similar rate per month, in both periods.
Service-producing industries. Throughout the current ex
pansion, the largest absolute job gains have been in services
and retail trade, although finance, insurance, and real estate
also posted substantial increases. Job growth in each of
these three industry divisions ranged from 17 to 20 percent
over the 32-year period of recovery, compared with less than
9 percent in the goods-producing sector. During 1985 and
the first half of 1986, most service-producing industries
continued to record large increases. Services (up 1.7 mil
lion) and retail trade (950,000) led the way, followed by
government (550,000) and finance, insurance, and real
estate (475,000).
Within the services division, business services has experi
enced phenomenal job growth over the last decade, espe
cially among those firms that provide computer and data
processing services and temporary help.6 Since the reces
sion trough, business services employment has jumped by
1.5 million or 45 percent, with 600,000 of the increase
occurring in the past
years. Health services also contin
ued its long-term job growth. Engineering and architectural
services, as well as accounting, auditing, and bookkeeping,
are two other industries that have registered large job in
creases over the 1985-86 period.
Retail trade employment continued to advance, but at a
slower pace than in 1983 and 1984. Three industries— eat
ing and drinking places, automotive dealers and service
stations, and food stores— have accounted for almost all the
job growth since late 1984. In contrast, employment in
general merchandise or department stores has been about
unchanged over the last
years, following a healthy pick
up in the first 2 years of recovery.
Finance, insurance, and real estate, while much smaller
than retail trade or services, has also grown at a very brisk
pace throughout the current expansion. Moreover, the rate
of job growth in this division has accelerated in the last \ \
years, compared with 1983 and 1984. Much of the recent
strength has been in finance, reflecting greater activity
among mortgage lenders in response to increased demand
for new and refinanced home loans at lower interest rates.
Goods-producing industries. Employment trends within
the goods-producing sector differed dramatically during the
first half of 1986. Construction employment continued to
advance strongly, but mining jobs dropped off sharply, and
manufacturing employment edged down.
Construction employment has jumped by 1.1 million, or
30 percent, during the current economic expansion— the
Table 1. Selected labor force indicators by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, seasonally adjusted quarterly averages,
1982-86
[Numbers in thousands]
C h a rac te ristic
1982
1984
IV
IV
110,926
64.1
99,135
3,475
95,660
57.3
11,791
10.6
1985
1986
1
II
III
IV
I
II
114,235
64.5
105,959
3,325
102,634
59.8
8,276
7.2
115,024
64.8
106,618
3,319
103,298
60.1
8,406
7.3
115,206
64.7
106,804
3,259
103,545
60.0
8,402
7.3
115,468
64.7
107,200
3,077
104,123
60.1
8,268
7.2
116,158
64.9
107,996
3,093
104,903
60.4
8,162
7.0
117,027
65.1
108,768
3,227
105,541
60.5
8,259
7.1
117,671
65.3
109,225
3,182
106,043
60.6
8,446
7.2
58,340
78.7
52,552
70.9
5,788
9.9
59,981
78.2
56,234
73.4
3,747
6.2
60,063
78.2
56,305
73.3
3,757
6.3
60,217
78.1
56,439
73.2
3,778
6.3
60,278
78.0
56,597
73.2
3,681
6.1
60,542
78.0
56,909
73.4
3,633
6.0
61,221
78.3
57,516
73.6
3,705
6.1
61,216
78.1
57,421
73.2
3,795
6.2
44,115
52.9
40,139
48.2
3,976
9.0
46,366
54.0
43,280
50.4
3,086
6.7
46,900
54.5
43,744
50.8
3,156
6.7
47,123
54.6
43,947
50.9
3,176
6.7
47,363
54.7
44,210
51.0
3,153
6.7
47,749
54.9
44,716
51.5
3,033
6.4
47,923
55.0
44,829
51.4
3,094
6.5
48,440
55.4
45,331
51.8
3,109
6.4
8,471
54.3
6,445
41.3
2,027
23.9
7,888
54.1
6,445
44.2
1,443
18.3
8,061
55.2
6,568
45.0
1,493
18.5
7,866
54.2
6,418
44.2
1,448
18.4
7,828
54.2
6,393
44.2
1,434
18.3
7,867
54.4
6,371
44.0
1,496
19.0
7,883
54.5
6,423
44.4
1,460
18.5
8,015
55.4
6,473
44.7
1,542
19.2
96,604
64.4
87,466
58.3
9,138
9.5
98,798
64.7
92,622
60.7
6,175
6.3
99,611
65.0
93,357
60.9
6,254
6.3
99,672
64.9
93,392
60.8
6,280
6.3
99,900
64.9
93,706
60.9
6,195
6.2
100,515
65.2
94,487
61.3
6,028
6.0
101,147
65.3
94,975
61.3
6,172
6.1
101,579
65.4
95,331
61.4
6,249
6.2
11,500
61.4
9,150
48.9
2,350
20.4
12,242
62.8
10,393
53.3
1,849
15.1
12,299
62.9
10,402
53.2
1,897
15.4
12,351
63.0
10,498
53.5
1,853
15.0
12,340
62.6
10,520
53.4
1,821
14.8
12,464
63.0
10,580
53.5
1,883
15.1
12,583
63.3
10,739
54.1
1,843
14.6
12,758
64.0
10,857
54.4
1,902
14.9
6,723
63.6
5,693
53.9
1,030
15.3
7,610
65.4
6,815
58.5
795
10.5
7,573
64.4
6,794
57.8
778
10.3
7,631
64.3
6,825
57.5
805
10.6
7,779
65.0
6,956
58.1
823
10.6
7,803
64.6
6,966
57.7
837
10.7
7,883
64.7
7,024
57.7
859
10.9
8,029
65.3
7,173
58.4
856
10.7
Total
Civilian labor fo rc e .......................................................................................................................................
Percent of population ..........................................................................................................................
Employed.................................................................................................................................................
Agriculture ...........................................................................................................................................
Nonagriculture ....................................................................................................................................
Employment-popuiation ra tio ...............................................................................................................
Unemployed.............................................................................................................................................
Unemployment ra te ..............................................................................................................................
M en, 20 y ea rs a n d o v er
Civilian labor fo rc e .......................................................................................................................................
Percent of population ..........................................................................................................................
Employed.................................................................................................................................................
Employment-population ra tio ...............................................................................................................
Unemployed.............................................................................................................................................
Unemployment ra te ..............................................................................................................................
W o m e n , 20 y ea rs and o v er
Civilian labor fo rc e .......................................................................................................................................
Percent of population ..........................................................................................................................
Employed.................................................................................................................................................
Employment-population ra tio ...............................................................................................................
Unemployed.............................................................................................................................................
Unemployment ra te ..............................................................................................................................
B oth sex es , 16 to 19 y ears
Civilian labor fo rc e .......................................................................................................................................
Percent of population ..........................................................................................................................
Employed.................................................................................................................................................
Employment-population ra tio ...............................................................................................................
Unemployed.............................................................................................................................................
Unemployment ra te ..............................................................................................................................
W hite
Civilian labor fo rc e .......................................................................................................................................
Percent of population ..........................................................................................................................
Employed.................................................................................................................................................
Employment-population ra tio ...............................................................................................................
Unemployed.............................................................................................................................................
Unemployment ra te ..............................................................................................................................
B lack
Civilian labor fo rc e .......................................................................................................................................
Percent of population ..........................................................................................................................
Employed.................................................................................................................................................
Employment-population ra tio ...............................................................................................................
Unemployed.............................................................................................................................................
Unemployment ra te ..............................................................................................................................
H is p an ic orig in
Civilian labor fo rc e .......................................................................................................................................
Percent of population ..........................................................................................................................
Employed.................................................................................................................................................
Employment-population ra tio ...............................................................................................................
Unemployed.............................................................................................................................................
Unemployment ra te ..............................................................................................................................
Note: Detail for race and Hispanic-origin groups will not sum to totals because data for the
“other races“ group are not presented and Hispanics are included in both the white and black
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
population groups,
5
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
August 1986 •
Employment in First-Half 1986
largest growth rate for any major industry group. What is
more, this expansion was just as robust during the 1985-86
period, when the number of construction jobs rose by about
500,000. Much of the recent strength was related to the
upsurge in housing starts in the wake of sharply lower mort
gage interest rates. In the initial stage of the recovery, both
housing starts and the value of residential construction put
in place rebounded sharply, but during 1984 they had lev
eled off.7 Also, housing starts, at 1.7 to 1.8 million per year
in the 1983-85 period, were below earlier highs of more
than 2 million units per year.
Much of the underlying strength in construction in 1984,
1985, and early 1986 has been in private nonresidential
building— especially structures for use by serviceproducing firms.8 Between 1983 and 1985, the annual value
of construction put in place rose by 76 percent for commer
cial structures other than office buildings. This category
includes shopping malls, department stores, warehouses,
banks, gas stations, and other buildings intended for use by
trade and service businesses. Office building construction
also grew substantially between 1983 and 1985 (by about
40 percent), but industrial construction rose by only 12 per
cent, reflecting the weakness in manufacturing. The value
of all private nonresidential buildings increased by a healthy
Table 2.
35 percent between 1983 and 1985, while residential con
struction rose by 15 percent.
The number of mining jobs fell by approximately
130,000, or 15 percent, in the first 6 months of 1986, after
trending downward more gradually since early 1982. Most
of the drop took place in oil and gas extraction, which was
adversely impacted by the worldwide oil glut and the subse
quent collapse of oil prices. At $15 a barrel in May 1986,
the price of oil had dropped about 40 percent from the first
of the year, and many marginal wells had been shut down.
Between December 1985 and June 1986, the oil and gas
industry lost 1 of 5 of its jobs.
Manufacturing employment edged down from 19.3 mil
lion in early 1986 to 19.2 million in the second quarter, and
was considerably below its peak of 21.2 million reached in
July of 1979. From that record high to the recession trough
in 1982, factory employment fell by 3.1 million; during the
first 2 years of recovery, it regained almost half of the jobs
lost, but has shown no sustained growth since late 1984. In
fact, the number of factory jobs declined during most of
1985 before leveling off in the fourth quarter. In the first
half, small job losses occurred in primary metals, machin
ery, and motor vehicles, as well as in leather. However,
small gains in lumber and wood products and stone, clay,
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls by industry, seasonally adjusted quarterly averages, 1982-86
[In thousands]
In d u s try
1982
1984
IV
IV
1985
1
II
1986
III
IV
I
llp
T o ta l.........................................................................
88,725
95,907
96,581
97,295
97,897
98,668
99,403
99,837
Goods-producing................................................................
22,982
24,943
24,970
24,947
24,866
24,937
25,028
24,954
Mining .............................................................................
Oil and gas extraction.................................................
1,029
651
958
610
946
600
943
596
922
581
907
565
876
538
793
463
Construction....................................................................
General building contractors ......................................
3,837
959
4,498
1,189
4,585
1,222
4,681
1,242
4,703
1,257
4,769
1,282
4,868
1,316
4,965
1,308
Manufacturing ................................................................
Durable goods ............................................................
Nondurable goods........................................................
18,116
10,485
7,631
19,486
11,635
7,851
19,439
11,616
7,823
19,323
11,539
7,784
19,241
11,459
7,782
19,261
11,454
7,808
19,284
11,446
7,838
19,196
11,370
7,826
Service-producing ..............................................................
65,743
70,964
71,611
72,347
73,031
73,731
74,375
74,883
Transportation and public utilities ..................................
Transportation..............................................................
Communication and public utilities..............................
5,022
2,735
2,288
5,201
2,965
2,236
5,223
2,984
2,239
5,236
2,999
2,237
5,239
3,004
2,235
5,270
3,037
2,232
5,281
3,052
2,229
5,233
3,038
2,194
Wholesale tra d e ..............................................................
Durable goods ............................................................
Nondurable goods........................................................
5,214
3,034
2,179
5,645
3,337
2,308
5,678
3,364
2,313
5,721
3,396
2,325
5,760
3,424
2,336
5,800
3,451
2,349
5,838
3,477
2,361
5,852
3,473
2,379
Retail trade ....................................................................
General merchandise s to re s .......................................
Food stores ................................................................
Automotive dealers and service stations ...................
Eating and drinking places .........................................
15,193
2,139
2,510
1,635
4,873
16,931
2,316
2,685
1,835
5,527
17,079
2,302
2,718
1,858
5,622
17,316
2,328
2,759
1,889
5,702
17,452
2,326
2,804
1,904
5,748
17,585
2,324
2,484
1,919
5,785
17,786
2,331
2,891
1,935
5,851
17,891
2,343
2,918
1,942
5,889
Finance, insurance, and real estate ..............................
Finance .......................................................................
Insurance....................................................................
Real estate..................................................................
5,356
2,664
1,715
976
5,779
2,890
1,785
1,105
5,841
2,920
1,801
1,120
5,913
2,957
1,820
1,137
5,989
2,998
1,839
1,152
6,068
3,039
1,861
1,168
6,155
3,081
1,889
1,185
6,253
3,134
1,916
1,203
Services...........................................................................
Business services........................................................
Health services............................................................
19,134
3,289
5,892
21,237
4,197
6,177
21,551
4,298
6,231
21,824
4,403
6,280
22,108
4,503
6,328
22,410
4,601
6,400
22,643
4,682
6,472
22,931
4,770
6,535
Government....................................................................
Federal.........................................................................
State ...........................................................................
Local ...........................................................................
15,824
2,745
3,641
9,438
16,171
2,830
3,773
9,568
16,240
2,842
3,801
9,596
16,337
2,867
3,829
9,641
16,483
2,888
3,861
9,733
16,599
2,904
3,900
9,795
16,672
2,920
3,922
9,830
16,723
2,923
3,934
9,867
p = preliminary.
6
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and glass products— related to the construction boom— and
in food and printing partially offset the declines.
Unemployment
The number of unemployed persons and the civilian un
employment rate both showed little change during the first
half of 1986.9 However, it is not unusual for the unemploy
ment rate to plateau or even increase slightly following a
sharp drop in the first 4 to 6 quarters after a recession.
Chart 1 clearly shows this pattern in the four postwar expan
sions that have lasted as long as 3j years. In the first year and
a half of the current recovery, the civilian jobless rate
dropped from 10.7 to 7.3 percent; it then remained at that
level for a full year before edging down to 7.0 percent at the
end of 1985.
Age and sex. The recent stability in overall unemployment
has also been evident for most major worker groups. The
6.2-percent jobless rate for men in the second quarter of
1986 and the 6.4-percent rate for women were little changed
from the rates posted in late 1985, but both were at their
lowest sustained levels since early 1980. However, the rate
for teenagers, at 19.2 percent in the second quarter, was
slightly above the rate in evidence during most of 1985.
Although recent jobless rates for most worker groups
were at or near their lowest levels in 6 years, they remained
substantially above the lows recorded in 1979. The differ
ence is most notable for adult men, who were particularly
hard hit by the back-to-back recessions of 1980 and 1981—
82. The jobless rate for men jumped from 4 percent in
mid-1979 to a recession high of nearly 10 percent. Despite
marked improvement in the subsequent 3^ years, the second
quarter 1986 unemployment rate for men was half again as
high as their rate 7 years earlier. The following tabulation
shows unemployment rates for men, women, and teenagers,
in selected quarters:
86 period. The already high black rate did not rise quite as
much relatively as the white and Hispanic rates (which
nearly doubled) during the 1980 and 1981-82 recessions.
The following tabulation shows unemployment rates for
whites, blacks, and Hispanics, selected quarterly averages:
1979-11 1982-TV 1986-11
Whites .....................................
Blacks ......................................
Hispanics ..................................
4.9
12.5
8.2
9.5
20.4
15.3
6.2
14.9
10.7
Similarly, during the last years of expansion, the jobless
rate for blacks did not fall proportionately as much as did
Chart 1. Cyclical behavior of civilian
unemployment rate in four postwar
expansions lasting as long as V /2 years
Percent
1979-11 1982-TV 1986-11
Total, 16 years and over . . . .
5.9
10.6
7.2
Men ..................................
W omen..............................
Teenagers..........................
4.0
5.7
16.0
9.9
9.0
23.9
6.2
6.4
19.2
The impact of the two recessions in the early 1980’s was
much less marked for women and teenagers. By the second
quarter of 1986, jobless rates for both for these groups had
dropped back to only slightly above their 1979 levels.
Race and ethnic origin. The unemployment rate for black
workers, at 14.9 percent in the second quarter, was about 2\
times the 6.2-percent rate for whites, while the rate for
persons of Hispanic origin— at 10.7 percent—remained in
an intermediate position. Jobless rates for all three groups
showed little change from late 1985 to mid-1986.
However, unemployment rates for the various race-ethnic
groups displayed slightly different patterns during the 1979
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Quarters before
trough
Quarters after
trough
7
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
August 1986 •
Employment in First-Half 1986
those for whites or Hispanics. Although there have been
considerable drops in unemployment since the recession
trough, jobless rates for whites, blacks, and Hispanics in
mid-1986 were all about one-fourth above their 1979 lows.
Duration and reason. Although the number of unem
ployed persons held about steady in the first half of 1986,
there were shifts in some key categories. Long-term unem
ployment (15 weeks or more) dipped to 26 percent of total
joblessness in the second quarter of 1986, its lowest propor
tion since mid-1980. Most of the decrease occurred among
persons who had been jobless for more than 6 months. Their
proportion of total unemployment declined to about 14 per
cent in the second quarter from 15j percent in late 1985. The
decrease in long-term joblessness was reflected in a lower
mean duration of unemployment— 14.6 weeks in the second
quarter of 1986, compared with about 15.5 weeks in the last
3 quarters of 1985.
The number of persons unemployed because of layoff
from their previous jobs averaged about 1.1 million in the
second quarter of 1986, down slightly from late 1985 and
substantially below the recessionary high of 2.4 million. In
contrast, the number of job leavers, persons who quit or
otherwise voluntarily terminate their employment, in
creased to just over 1 million in the second quarter. The
job-leaver component of unemployment tends to move in
the opposite direction from job losers. That is, the propor
tion of the unemployed who voluntarily leave employment
and look for other jobs increases in economic upturns and
declines during recessions. There was little change during
the first half of 1986 in the number of persons unemployed
1 Business cycle peaks and troughs are designated by the National Bu
reau o f Economic Research. The three most recent recessions extended
from the following peak-to-trough dates: November 1973 to March 1975,
January 1980 to July 1980, and July 1981 to November 1982.
2 The Current Population Survey (household survey) is a monthly sample
survey o f about 59,500 households and provides information on the labor
force, employment, and unemployment by demographic and economic
characteristics. The Current Employment Statistics program (establishment
survey) is a monthly survey o f more than 250,000 nonagricultural estab
lishments and provides information on the number of persons on business
payrolls.
3 See Susan E. Shank, “Employment rose in the first half of 1985, as the
recovery entered its third year,” Monthly Labor Review, August 1985,
pp. 3 -8 .
4 Effective in January 1986, revised population estimates were intro
duced into the Current Population Survey. The new estimates include an
explicit allowance for undocumented immigration since 1980, as well as an
improved estimate o f emigration. The net effect o f these changes was to
cause jumps in both the civilian population and labor force of about
400,000 and an employment jump of 350,000 (between December 1985
and January 1986). Adjustments are made for these breaks in series in the
discussion o f over-the-year changes for all civilian workers. However, with
the exception o f data for persons of Hispanic origin, data shown in the
tables for periods prior to 1986 have not been adjusted.
5 Comparisons are based on unadjusted data averaged for the first
6 months o f each year. Beginning in 1983, occupational data were coded
and published according to the 1980 census system, which evolved from
the Standard Occupational Classification. Seasonal adjustment will not be
8
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because they were entering or reentering the labor force, or
in the number of job losers who were not on layoff.
Discouraged workers
In the first half of 1986, there were approximately
1.1 million discouraged workers— persons who want to
work but are not actively looking for jobs because they
believe that they can not find one. The number was down
slightly from the levels that had prevailed in the previous \ \
years. The recent decrease was evident both among persons
who cite job market factors as the reason for their discour
agement and among those citing personal factors. The de
cline was concentrated among men and whites— two groups
that are underrepresented among discouraged workers. By
mid-1986, men, who made up 55 percent of the civilian
labor force, accounted for only 35 percent of discouraged
workers; whites constituted 86 percent of the labor force,
but only 66 percent of the discouraged.
of economic expansion evident during
1985 continued into the first half of 1986. Employment
increases just about matched labor force expansion— leav
ing both the level and rate of unemployment about un
changed. All of the job growth in the past l£ years has taken
place in the service-producing sector— especially the
services and retail trade industries— and in construction.
Manufacturing employment has edged down since the
end of 1985. Mining employment fell precipitously dur
ing the first half of 1986, as lower oil prices resulted in
sharp reductions in the number of jobs in oil and gas
extraction.
□
T he m o der ate pace
possible until at least 5 years o f data are available on the new classification
system. For further information, see “Revisions in the Current Population
Survey Beginning in January 1983,” Employment and Earnings, February
1983, pp. 7 -1 5 .
6 See the following articles in the April 1986 Monthly Labor Review:
Wayne J. Howe, “The business services industry sets pace in employment
growth,” pp. 29-36; and Max L. Carey and Kim L. Hazelbaker,
“Employment growth in the temporary help industry,” pp. 3 7-4 4 .
7 See U .S. Bureau of the Census, Construction Reports-Value of New
Construction Put in Place: May 1985 , C-30-85-5, and later monthly news
releases. All references to value o f construction are in constant (1977)
dollars.
8 Employment data for construction are classified differently from data
on the value o f construction put in place. The latter estimates are based on
the type o f construction or the final use o f the project. Employment data are
classified in two ways: first, based on the type of builder (general or special
trades contractors) and second, for the general contractors on whether they
construct buildings (of all types) or other projects. The most rapid employ
ment growth in recent years has been among special trades contractors, for
example, firms specializing in plumbing, painting, electrical work, or
carpentry. These contractors work on all types o f construction— residential
and nonresidential, private and public.
9 On a monthly basis, the unemployment rate declined from 6.9 to
6.7 percent in January 1986, but increased in February to 7.3 percent. Both
of these movements appear to have been exaggerated owing to several
factors, including coding errors on a question that was reworded slightly in
January and exceptionally mild weather in January that was followed by
stormy weather in February.
The employment expansion
in retail trade, 1973-85
Strong employment gains in the industry
can be attributed mostly to exceptional growth
in eating and drinking places and food stores;
part-time positions accounted for
much of the overall growth
Steven
E.
H augen
One of the largest and fastest growing industries in the
United States, in terms of employment, is retail trade.
Nearly 17.4 million persons were employed in this field in
1985, or more than 1 of every 6 nonagricultural wage and
salary workers. From 1973 to 1985, retail trade employment
expanded by 5 million, accounting for a fourth of the total
nonagricultural employment increase over the period. Only
services and manufacturing employed a larger number of
workers, and only services; finance, insurance, and real
estate; and mining exhibited a higher rate of employment
growth over the 12-year period. Although growth in retail
trade employment was pervasive, a closer inspection reveals
that most of the increase can be attributed to very sharp
expansion in two key industries within the retail trade divi
sion— eating and drinking places, and food stores.
Steven E. Haugen is an economist in the Division o f Employment and
Unemployment Analysis, Office o f Employment and Unemployment
Statistics, Bureau o f Labor Statistics.
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
This article discusses employment trends in retail trade as
well as in key industry groups since 1973. In addition, it
explores the changing demographic, occupational, and earn
ings characteristics of retail trade workers, as well as the
incidence of self-employment in the industry. Data for the
years 1973 and 1985 were chosen for comparison, because
they are indicative of periods characterized by relatively
robust economic activity and, more importantly, because
they each represent the third year of recovery following a
recession.1
Data for this study were derived from both the Current
Employment Statistics survey and the Current Population
Survey.2 The Current Employment Statistics survey is a
monthly sample of the payroll records from 250,000 busi
ness establishments nationwide and is widely regarded as
the most detailed and statistically reliable source of informa
tion on industry employment, hours, and earnings. Data
from this survey are used in the analysis of employment and
earnings trends among wage and salary workers in retail
9
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
August 1986 •
Employment in Retail Trade
trade industries over time. However, because the payroll
survey does not provide information on the demographic or
occupational characteristics of workers, or on self-employed
and unpaid family workers in the industry, data on these
subjects were derived from the Current Population Survey,
a monthly sample survey of 59,500 households nationwide.
What is retail trade?
The role of retail trade industries in a market-based econ
omy is obvious: to serve as “middlemen” between those who
supply goods and those who purchase the goods for final
consumption. More formally, the retail trade division, as
defined in the 1972 Standard Industrial Classification Man
ual, includes “. . .establishments engaged in selling mer
chandise for personal or household consumption, and ren
dering services incidental to the sale of the goods.” These
firms are classified into eight major component industries,
including general merchandise stores, food stores, automo
tive dealers and gasoline service stations, apparel and acces
sory stores, and eating and drinking places.3 Altogether,
there were about 2 million retail establishments in 1982.4
Clearly, retail industries are the major conduits for the distri
bution of goods from producer to consumer. As such, they
should be distinguished from their wholesale trade counter
parts, which employ roughly one-third as many workers
basically in the sale of goods to retailers or to industrial or
commercial users.
Retail trade, by nature, is highly labor intensive, and by
and large it is the retail worker who usually plays the preem
inent role in the transaction between buyer and seller. Al
though there have been recent developments in the way
retailers conduct business that are lessening the dependence
upon workers for certain tasks, such as the extensive use of
computerized gasoline pumps to serve customers, there are
many services provided by the industry for which it has been
exceedingly difficult to substitute capital for labor. Whether
through providing information and assistance to the cus
tomer in the selection of the product, ringing up the sale, or
in delivering the product, the retail worker is an intrinsic and
seemingly irreplaceable “factor of production” in the indus
try. Therefore, just as consumer demand for all kinds of
merchandise has increased over time, retail employment has
expanded to handle the larger number of transactions be
tween producer and consumer.
Overall growth
Employment in retail trade expanded by 5.0 million be
tween 1973 and 1985, an increase of about 41 percent. By
comparison, employment in all nonagricultural industries
increased by about 27 percent. Relatively stronger employ
ment growth in retail trade over the period reflects not only
increases during business expansions that were either pro
portionately equal to or greater than those for all industries,
but also more resilience to employment declines during each
of the three recessions that occurred during the 12-year
10
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period under study. The following tabulation shows season
ally adjusted percent changes in employment during se
lected business cycle expansions and contractions. (As of
March 1986, the economy was in the 40th month of business
recovery since the recession trough in November 1982.)
Business cycles
All
nonagricultural
industries
Expansions:
March 1975-January 1980 . . . .
July 1980-July 1981................ ........
November 1982-March 1986 ..
18.8
2.0
12.2
Contractions:
November 1973-March 1975 .. ........
January 1980-July 1980 ........... ........
July 1981-November 1982 . . . . ........
-1 .8
-1 .2
-3 .0
Retail
trade
20.6
1.9
17.5
0
-
1.0
-0 .4
It may seem somewhat surprising that employment in
retail trade was not only far less affected by cyclical down
turns than that in all nonagricultural industries, but also that
it barely declined at all in the two longer recessions of the
1973-85 period. Logically, when consumer demand wanes,
employment in retail trade would be expected to decline as
fewer workers are needed to handle the smaller volume of
sales. Indeed, although overall employment in the retail
division remained relatively unchanged during the three
contractions, a closer look reveals that there were substan
tial differences in the response to cyclical and other develop
ments by individual retail industries.
Employment growth by industry
For the purposes of this analysis, the eight major industry
groups within the retail trade division can be broken down
into three groups: 1) “slow” growth industries— those
which grew only slightly during expansions and experienced
deep employment declines as a result of recessions, result
ing in little growth over the 1973-85 period, 2) “med
ium” growth industries— those which exhibited marked em
ployment growth over the period, growing during recoveries
and suffering only moderate declines during recessions, and
3) “strong” growth industries—those which grew very
sharply during expansions and continued to grow during
contractions, thereby establishing a pattern of extraordinary
employment growth over the entire period. (See table 1.)
Slow growth industries. The general merchandise stores
and automotive dealers and gasoline service stations indus
try groups exhibited the slowest rate of growth among the
retail industries over the period, each expanding by less than
7 percent over the entire 12 years. The general merchandise
stores industry, the third largest retail employer in 1985, is
basically comprised of department stores and similar estab
lishments which sell a wide variety of products. The indus
try had been the second largest in 1973 when it employed
some 2.2 million workers. However, relatively weak em
ployment growth since that time, in part reflecting sharp and
protracted employment declines as a result of business cycle
contractions, substantially eroded its share of retail employ
ment. By 1985, the industry employed 2.3 million workers.
Automotive dealers and service stations, at 1.9 million in
1985, were only 115,000 above the 1973 level. Like general
merchandise stores, this industry was severely affected by
cyclical downturns (which is not surprising, given the indus
try’s close attachment to the very cyclically sensitive
automobile manufacturing industry). In addition, the gaso
line crises of 1973 and 1979 had a deleterious impact on
automotive dealers and gasoline service stations. Resultant
losses limited overall employment growth over the 1973-85
period.
Medium growth industries. The building materials and
garden supplies, apparel and accessories, furniture and
home furnishings, and miscellaneous retail industries regis
tered substantially greater employment growth than the first
group of industries over the period. Among these four indus
tries, growth was proportionately the smallest for the build
ing materials and garden supplies industry. Comprised of all
stores which sell primarily lumber, hardware, and other
building supplies, this industry grew by 28 percent, employ
ing a total of 685,000 persons by 1985. Slightly stronger
employment growth occurred within apparel and acces
sories, as clothing stores and related establishments em
ployed about 1 million persons in 1985, or 31 percent more
than in 1973. The furniture and home furnishings industry
exhibited fairly sharp growth, expanding by 38 percent to an
employment level of 735,000 in 1985. Like the “slow”
growth group, though to a lesser degree, all three of these
industries suffered significant employment losses as a result
of the recessions which occurred over the 1973-85 period.
The last member of this “medium” growth group, miscella
neous retail, added 640,000 workers over the period, reach
ing a level of 2.2 million workers. This represents an expan
sion of 41 percent. Miscellaneous retail includes all retail
Table 1.
establishments that cannot be classified in the seven other
industries, such as drugstores, bookstores, and mail order
houses.
Strong growth industries. Food stores and eating and
drinking places comprised the “strong” growth group. The
food stores industry, which includes all businesses which
primarily sell food for home preparation, grew rapidly over
the period and by 1985 was the second largest industry
within retail trade. This industry is comprised of groceries,
bakeries, various produce markets, and similar establish
ments. There were 2.8 million workers employed in the
food stores industry in 1985, up roughly 925,000 from the
1973 level, representing an increase of 50 percent.
The eating and drinking places industry, which remained
the largest industry in the division throughout the period,
registered the highest employment growth rate since 1973
among the eight retail industries (87 percent). Composed of
restaurants of all types, including cafeterias, fast food
restaurants, and sit-down eating places, as well as a full
range of establishments engaged in the retail sale of bever
ages for on-site consumption, the industry employed
5.7 million persons in 1985, up 2.7 million since 1973.
Thus, this industry alone accounted for half of total employ
ment growth in retail trade over the period.
Eating and drinking places and food stores industries
together employed 8.5 million persons in 1985 (about half
of all retail workers), and accounted for 71 percent of em
ployment growth in retail trade since 1973. (See chart 1.)
Not only did these industries grow at a much faster pace than
the rest of retail trade during expansions, but employment
increases in these industries during recessions were suffi
cient to largely offset declines that occurred in the rest of the
retail industries.5 The following tabulation shows the
changes in employment in the eating and drinking places
and food stores industries and all other retail industries dur
ing selected business cycle expansions and contractions
Number of employees in the retail trade industry by major division, 1973-85 annual averages
[In thousands]
Furniture
and
home
furnishings
stores
Eating
and
drinking
places
Miscellaneous
retail
trade
795
811
806
842
533
538
517
540
3,054
3,231
3,380
3,656
1,551
1,609
1,625
1,687
1,801
1,861
1,812
1,689
870
909
949
957
563
595
615
606
3,949
4,277
4,513
4,626
1,740
1,816
1,886
1,912
1,653
1,632
1,674
1,799
1,892
968
943
963
1,008
1,042
595
584
608
678
736
4,750
4,831
5,042
5,388
5,715
1,938
1,940
1,989
2,108
2,191
Automotive
dealers
and
service
stations
Total
nonagricultural
employees
Total
retail
trade
Building
materials
and
garden
supplies
General
merchandise
stores
Food
stores
1973
1974
1975
1976
76,790
78,265
76,945
79,382
12,329
12,554
12,645
13,209
535
542
521
546
2,229
2,210
2,113
2,155
1,856
1,948
2,007
2,039
1,778
1,666
1,677
1,744
1977
1978
1979
1980
82,471
86,697
89,823
90,406
13,808
14,573
14,989
15,035
576
608
629
617
2,204
2,308
2,287
2,245
2,106
2,199
2,297
2,384
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
91,156
89,566
90,200
94,496
97,614
15,189
15,179
15,613
16,545
17,360
607
588
615
659
685
2,230
2,184
2,165
2,267
2,320
2,448
2,478
2,556
2,637
2,779
Apparel
and
accessory
stores
Note: Data were obtained from the Current Employment Statistics (establishment) survey.
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11
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
August 1986 •
Employment in Retail Trade
(employment in thousands, seasonally adjusted):
Eating and drinking All other
places and food
retail
stores
industries
Business cycles
Expansions:
March 1975-January 1980 . . . . . . .
July 1980-July 1 981..............
November 1982-March 1986 ., . . .
Contractions:
November 1973-March 1975 .
January 1980-July 1980 ................
July 1981-November 1982 .. .
1,649
210
1,399
954
88
1,260
289
51
158
-255
-216
-235
Job growth factors
There are many factors which can be associated with
employment growth in retail trade since 1973. Obviously,
increasing consumer demand is largely responsible, and to
some extent, this simply reflects population growth and the
increase in aggregate income over the period. Perhaps more
importantly, there are many demographic and socioeco
nomic developments which have directly and indirectly
magnified demand for goods and services in general, includ
ing the increased incidence of working women, and thus of
two-income families; an increased number of persons who
live alone; and a general trend towards increased demand for
leisure time. One end product of these changes is the gradual
emergence of a more affluent society, in which time has
become a scarcer resource.6 This, in turn, has led to in
creased customer demand for convenience. Consumers have
less time for shopping, and they want to be able to shop
Chart 1. Employment in eating and drinking
places and food stores as a percentage
of employment in retail trade, 1973-85
Percent
12
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whenever time becomes available. As a result, many retail
stores have not only increased in size and number, but have
expanded their hours of operation as well. Both factors have
resulted in the addition of more workers in retail trade,
particularly part-timers. Probably the greatest impact of
these developments has been in the eating and drinking and
food store establishments.
It is generally more expensive to eat meals prepared in
restaurants than it is to eat at home, and this disparity has
widened over time. Consequently, all other things being
equal, one would expect to see a cutback in the amount of
dollars spent on food away from home. In fact, there has
been a change in eating habits. Data from b l s Consumer
Expenditure Surveys indicate that between 1972-73 and
1982-83, not only has the proportion of the overall con
sumer’s budget spent on food declined, but that of this total
food budget, the proportion spent on food away from home
has increased significantly.7 This preference of eating out to
cooking at home can certainly be associated with the in
creasing desire to conserve time, as it typically takes more
time to prepare a meal at home than it does to eat out. As
noted previously, there are many groups that have had more
constraints placed upon their available time, and many of
them find it more convenient to eat out, augmenting demand
for the industry.8
But if this is the case, then why has demand in the food
stores industry increased as well? In addition to the marked
population growth over the period, one possible reason for
the increase over time is the growing diversification of prod
ucts offered by grocery stores. To meet the customer’s
growing demand for convenience, grocery stores have in
creasingly offered many services and products that once
were the province of other industries.9 These include the
installation of delis and salad bars, service centers for check
cashing, and other services such as film processing.10 Ulti
mately, demand for the industry has increased as people are
able to obtain a wider selection of goods with just one stop
at a store, thereby saving time.
Technical innovations and productivity
Employment growth in retail trade over the 1973-85 pe
riod would probably have been even more dramatic had it
not been for the adoption of many labor-saving and
management-related innovations which have helped to in
crease productivity in the sector. For example, the use of
computer technology to manage inventories and handle cus
tomer billing and accounting has limited the labor resources
that were once needed to handle these tasks.11 In addition,
the overall trend towards consumer self-selection of mer
chandise has limited labor requirements in many industries,
such as the proliferation of self-service pumps at gas stations
and convenience stores and the self-selection of products in
apparel and department stores.
In part reflecting these innovations, productivity in the
retail trade division increased at an average annual rate of
1.0 percent from 1973-84, slightly higher than the 0.8 per
cent recorded for the total business sector.12 However, there
were divergent movements in productivity over the period
for many of the detailed retail industries. In fact, among the
retail industries for which data are available, there were
average annual productivity declines for only two indus
tries, eating and drinking places and food stores. As in
creased output can be satisfied by either increased produc
tivity or increased input, these two industries were
increasingly reliant upon labor to meet the higher output
requirements.
Characteristics of retail workers
An understanding of certain characteristics of the retail
trade work force helps explain employment patterns and
trends in this industry division. Historically, the retail trade
work force has differed in many respects from the overall
work force. For example, the industry has typically em
ployed a disproportionately large share of part-time work
ers, women and young persons, sales and service workers,
workers who have below average earnings, as well as selfemployed and unpaid family workers. While this profile has
changed little between 1973 and 1985, there have been
important changes in the proportionate representation of
these groups.13
Part-time workers. Employment growth in retail trade
may be somewhat misleading if one does not note the fact
that much of the growth reflected large increases in the size
of the part-time component. More than 1 of every 3 retail
trade workers was employed on a part-time basis in 1985—
Table 2. Percent distribution of employed wage and
salary workers in the retail trade industry by selected
characteristics, 1973 and 1985 annual averages
1985
1973
Characteristics
Total
Retail trade
Total
Retail trade
Total, 16 years and ove r.......................
16 to 19 years ..................................
20 to 24 years ..................................
25 years and o ve r..............................
100.0
8.7
15.0
76.3
100.0
21.6
16.7
61.7
100.0
6.1
13.8
80.0
100.0
18.5
21.4
60.1
Men, 16 years and over ...................
16 to 19 ye a rs................................
20 to 24 y e a rs................................
25 years and o v e r..........................
61.1
4.8
8.3
47.9
52.0
11.6
9.3
31.1
54.9
3.1
7.1
44.6
47.6
8.8
10.2
28.5
Women, 16 years and o v e r...............
16 to 19 years................................
20 to 24 y e a rs................................
25 years and o v e r ..........................
38.9
3.9
6.7
28.4
48.0
10.0
7.4
30.6
45.1
3.0
6.7
35.4
52.4
9.7
11.2
31.6
Full-time workers1 ..............................
Men, 16 years and o v e r.................
Women, 16 years and o v e r ...........
86.1
56.4
29.7
68.0
41.1
26.9
83.8
49.9
33.9
65.3
36.2
29.1
Part-time workers1 ............................
Men, 16 years and o v e r.................
Women, 16 years and o v e r ...........
13.9
4.7
9.3
32.0
10.9
21.1
16.2
5.0
11.2
34.7
11.4
23.3
1 Employed persons with a job but not at work and persons at work part time are distributed
according to whether they usually work full or part time.
Note: Data were obtained from the Current Population (household) Survey and exclude
agricultural and private household workers.
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twice the proportion of total nonagricultural employment.
Although the services industry employed a larger number of
part-time workers, no other industry had such a large pro
portion of its work force putting in fewer than 35 hours per
week. Part-time employment was even more prevalent in
1985 than it had been 12 years earlier. In fact, about 40
percent of the employment growth in retail trade since 1973
has been among part-time workers; the relative contribution
of part-timers to total employment growth for all nonagri
cultural industries was about one-fourth.14 (See table 2.)
This finding is supported by data from the establishment
survey, which show that average weekly hours in the indus
try have fallen by about 11 percent since 1973, twice the
proportional decline in all private nonagricultural industries.
There are several reasons part-time employment is so
prevalent in retail trade. From the standpoint of the em
ployer, hiring part-time workers is an efficient way to han
dle changes in the extended hours of operation necessitated
by ever-fluctuating consumer demand for retail goods. Con
sumer demand for many products varies seasonally,
monthly, and even daily. As mentioned earlier, the emer
gence of a “time-scarce” American consumer has exacer
bated the variability of peak and non-peak periods of de
mand. The result is that most retailers must stay open
evenings, Saturdays, and, in many cases, even Sundays, to
capture as much of this demand as possible. However, be
cause these oscillations in demand are somewhat predict
able, the retailer can use part-time labor to meet the demand
at any given time.15
Just as many retailers have a need for part-time workers,
so do many workers have a need for part-time jobs. Parttime schedules are often fairly flexible, allowing the worker
time for other activities. This being the case, it is not sur
prising that women and young workers make up a large
portion of the part-time workers in the industry. For exam
ple, in 1985, two-thirds of the part-time work force in retail
trade were women. For many women, part-time work af
fords the option of supplementing family income while still
allowing time for maintaining a home and child rearing; for
youth, part-time work is scheduled around school atten
dance.
Demographic characteristics o f workers. When com
pared with other industries, retail trade has always had a
disproportionately high concentration of women and young
workers. Women accounted for just under two-thirds of the
employment growth in the industry between 1973 and 1985,
boosting their proportion of the retail trade work force to just
over one-half. This increase reflects changes occurring in
the work force, as women also made up two-thirds of em
ployment growth in all nonagricultural industries over the
same period; as a result, the proportion of women in the
work force increased from 39 to 45 percent.
The situation is somewhat different for young workers.
Despite the general aging of the overall work force, young
13
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
August 1986 •
Employment in Retail Trade
workers (16 to 24 years of age) commanded an even larger
share of retail trade employment in 1985 than in 1973. This
was entirely due to very large increases in the number of
retail workers 20 to 24 years of age. In fact, about 73 percent
of the increase in total industry employment for workers
ages 20 to 24 occurred in retail trade. Teenagers accounted
for about 1 of every 5 retail workers in 1985, and more than
half of all employed teens worked in retail trade. On the
whole, about 40 percent of all workers in retail trade were
less than 25 years of age in 1985, twice the percentage for
the overall work force; the figures in 1973 were 38 and 24
percent, respectively. (See table 2.) There is little variation
in the extent to which whites and minorities hold jobs in
retail trade. About 17 percent of both white and Hispanic
workers were employed in the industry in 1985, compared
with about 14 percent of black workers.16
There are several likely reasons for the relatively high
prevalence of young and female workers in retail trade.
Young workers typically have fewer job skills and less train
ing than their older counterparts. In addition, as mentioned
earlier, both young and female workers have a relatively
high proclivity to work part time. Based on the fact that skill
requirements in the industry are generally low, and that
part-time work arrangements are often easily accommo
dated, many young and female workers find positions in the
industry very suitable.
Occupation. Sales and service jobs were the most preva
lent occupations in retail trade in 1985.17 About 42 percent
of all workers in the industry held sales positions, and about
23 percent were employed in service jobs. Most of those in
the latter category worked in eating and drinking places.
Combined, these two occupational groups accounted for
almost two-thirds of the employed total in retail trade; this
compares with about 25 percent of those in all industries.
Within retail trade, the most prevalent occupations in the
sales and service areas were sales workers, sales supervisors,
Table 3. Occupational distribution of employment in the
retail trade industry, 1985 annual averages
1985
Occupation
Total
employed
Retail
trade
Total employed ..............................................................
Managerial and professional specialty......................................
Executive, administrative, and managerial............................
Professional specialty............................................................
100.0
24.1
11.4
12.7
100.0
9.5
7.6
1.9
Technical, sales, and administrative support............................
Technicians and related support ...........................................
Sales occupations ................................................................
Administrative support, including c le ric a l..............................
31.0
3.0
11.8
16.2
50.0
.3
41.6
8.1
Service occupations..................................................................
Private household..................................................................
Protective service..................................................................
Service, except private household and protective.................
13.5
.9
1.6
10.9
23.3
Precision production, craft, and repair......................................
12.4
6.4
Operators, fabricators, and la borers.........................................
Machine operators, assemblers, and inspectors...................
Transportation and material moving occupations.................
Handlers, equipment cleaners, helpers, and laborers...........
15.7
7.3
4.2
4.1
10.7
.8
2.3
7.6
Farming, forestry, and fis h in g ...................................................
3.2
.1
—
.3
23.0
Note: Data were obtained from the Current Population (household) Survey.
cashiers, and food preparation and service workers. (See
table 3.)
Earnings. Pay in the retail trade industry has historically
been below average, and the disparity has widened. Weekly
earnings in the industry (derived from the Current Employ
ment Statistics survey), at $175 in 1985, were 58 percent of
the figure for all private nonagricultural wage and salary
workers; this ratio was down from 66 percent in 1973.
Within retail trade, weekly earnings ranged from a high of
$273 in automotive dealerships and service stations to $112
in eating and drinking places in 1985. (See table 4.)
A study of earnings in the industry is complicated, how
ever, by the many varied pay arrangements. Commissions
and tips supplement, to varying degrees, earnings within
Table 4. Average weekly earnings of private nonagricultural production or nonsupervisory workers in the retail trade indus
try, 1973-85 annual averages
Furniture
and
home
furnishings
stores
Eating
and
drinking
places
$80.74
86.88
91.81
98.45
$131.38
137.23
144.84
151.92
$65.18
69.92
74.21
76.67
$101.51
106.57
113.22
118.86
170.62
184.88
200.72
212.25
228.23
102.81
110.11
117.09
122.12
132.99
156.73
169.31
182.34
192.44
205.52
81.75
87.26
90.74
96.31
103.10
123.55
132.93
143.81
152.29
160.97
235.99
249.44
263.81
272.69
136.77
141.06
143.08
143.33
212.72
227.41
235.63
239.57
107.16
112.30
112.04
111.71
167.94
174.89
180.38
182.03
Automotive
dealers
and
service
stations
Total
private
nonagri
cultural
employees
Total
retail
trade
Building
materials
and
garden
supplies
General
merchandise
stores
Food
stores
1973
1974
1975
1976
$145.39
154.76
163.53
175.45
$96.32
102.68
108.86
114.60
$128.82
136.64
142.88
152.86
$86.94
92.68
99.19
104.01
$111.20
121.55
131.38
144.21
$133.17
143.05
149.76
158.56
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
189.00
203.70
219.91
235.10
255.20
121.66
130.20
138.62
147.38
158.03
163.78
175.68
186.38
195.94
209.76
110.93
118.67
129.21
139.76
150.38
155.03
167.36
179.74
194.69
212.35
1982
1983
1984
1985
267.26
280.70
292.86
299.09
163.85
171.05
174.33
174.64
215.04
221.17
232.32
239.58
157.39
165.50
163.56
169.60
221.65
229.81
233.78
221.97
Year
Note: Data were obtained from the Current Employment Statistics (establishment) survey.
14
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Apparel
and
accessory
stores
Miscellaneous
retail
trade
several component industries. Earnings received on a com
mission basis, which are included in the Current Employ
ment Statistics survey, occur in industries with a heavy
proportion of sales workers, and vary according to product
sold. Big ticket items, such as automobiles, major appli
ances, and jewelry offer the best chance for commissiontype arrangements. Presumably, tips, which are excluded
from the survey, are the most common type of compensation
over and above regular pay in eating and drinking places. As
a result, the payroll data somewhat understate the average
earnings of workers in this industry.
Many jobs in retail trade offer no such supplement to
regular wages, and therefore it is useful to look at the earn
ings of workers paid at an hourly rate. Data from the Current
Population Survey indicate that the median hourly earnings
for retail trade workers paid at an hourly rate in 1985 were
$4.15. About two-thirds of those workers paid at hourly
rates made less than $5 an hour. About one-fourth earned
the prevailing minimum wage of $3.35 or less— a much
larger proportion than in any other industry. In fact, half of
all minimum wage and subminimum wage workers were
employed in retail trade.18
There are several characteristics of the retail trade work
force which can be associated with the generally low earn
ings in the industry division. These include, among others,
an occupational structure heavily biased toward sales and
service positions, employment disproportionately composed
of young workers, and industry operations that are tailored
for part-time positions. Because these groups and job char
acteristics are associated with lower pay in general, it fol
lows that earnings in retail trade would be affected nega
tively. Indeed, the increasing proportionate sizes of these
groups in retail trade over time may be related to the widen
ing earnings gap between the industry and the all-industry
average.
Self-employed and unpaid family workers. While wage
and salary employment in retail trade grew markedly be
tween 1973 and 1985, the number of self-employed workers
in the industry changed very little. As a result, their propor
tion of total employment declined from 10 to 8 percent over
the period. The number of unpaid family workers in the
retail industry actually fell over the period, and by 1985,
they represented less than 1 percent of the employed total in
the sector. Both of these developments suggest a decline in
the role of self-owned retail businesses in the industry.
r e l a t iv e l y s t r o n g employment growth in the retail
trade division over the 1973-85 period can mostly be at
tributed to extraordinary growth in eating and drinking
places and food stores. Although a few other retail industries
exhibited substantial employment growth over the period,
several factors, including the increased importance of spare
time and convenience to consumers, augmented demand for
eating and drinking places and food stores to a much larger
extent than that for retail trade in general, b l s projections
indicate that employment growth in eating and drinking
places and in food stores will continue strongly through
1995, albeit at a slightly slower pace than in the past. This,
combined with projected declines in the rate of employment
growth among other retail industries, seems to suggest that
in contrast to past performance, overall retail trade employ
ment growth over the 1984-95 period will be only slightly
stronger than that for all industries.19
□
T he
FOOTNOTES
'The business cycle expansion and contraction periods are determined by
the National Bureau o f Economic Research, a private, nonprofit research
organization located in Cambridge, MA.
2Because the two sources differ in definition, coverage, methods of
collection, and estimating procedures, estimates o f employment are not
identical. For a detailed com parison o f the two surveys, see the
“Explanatory Notes” section o f the BLS monthly publication, Employment
and Earnings.
3The following industry groups comprise the major “two-digit” retail
industries in the sector:
SIC 52— Building materials, hardware, garden supply, and mobile
home dealers
SIC 53— General merchandise stores
SIC 54— Food stores
SIC 55— Automotive dealers and gasoline service stations
SIC 56— Apparel and accessory stores
SIC 57— Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores
SIC 58— Eating and drinking places
SIC 59— Miscellaneous retail
These groups are further broken down into more detailed three- and four
digit industries. See the U .S. Office of Management and Budget’s Stand
ard Industrial Classification Manual, 1972, for further information and a
more detailed explanation of the codes.
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4See 1982 Census o f Retail Trade (Bureau of the Census, Nov. 1984),
p. 2.
5One characteristic common to both of these industries that substantially
insulates them from cyclical downturns, and thus the associated employ
ment losses, is that food and related products represent a “need” rather than
a “want.” Consequently, potential employment declines in these industries
are mitigated. However, the fact that employment in these industries actu
ally grew significantly during the three recessions reflects considerable
consumer demand for their products.
6Jagdish N. Sheth, “Emerging Trends for the Retailing Industry,” Jour
nal of Retailing, Fall 1983, p. 6.
7For further information, see Raymond Gieseman and John Rogers,
“Consumer expenditures: results from the Diary and Interview surveys,”
Monthly Labor Review, June 1986, pp. 14-18.
8William Dunn, “The Meat and Potatoes o f Eating Out,” American
Demographics, January 1985, p. 35.
9See Sheth, p. 7.
10See Progressive Grocer Magazine, selected “Annual Reports o f the
Grocery Industry.”
" S ee Michael A. Gallo and Robert B. Nenno, Computers and Society
(Boston, Prindle, Weber and Schmidt, 1985), pp. 182-86.
12Data were obtained from both published and unpublished matrices
from the bls Office of Productivity and Technology. The productivity
figures represent output per hour o f all persons. Average annual productiv
ity rates of change over the 1973-84 period for the total business sector,
15
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
August 1986 •
Employment in Retail Trade
retail trade, and available detailed retail industries are:
Total business s e c to r ...................................................................................8
Retail trade ............................................................................................... 1.0
SIC 54— Food s t o r e s ........................................................................... - . 7
SIC 5511— Franchised new car dealers ................................................ 8
SIC 5541— Gasoline service stations ..................................................3.1
SIC 56— Apparel and accessory sto r e s................................................3.7
SIC 58— Eating and drinking places ............................................. —.7
SIC 5912— D rugstores............................................................................. 1.3
13For information on the characteristics o f workers in the retail trade
industry over the 1968-78 period, see Barbara Cottman Job, “Employment
and pay trends in the retail trade industry,” Monthly Labor Review, March
1980, pp. 4 0 -4 3 .
14These data are based on a new definition of part-time employment
recently developed by bl s . For a discussion o f the new definition, see
Thomas Nardone, “Part-time workers: who are they?” Monthly Labor
Review, February 1986, pp. 13-19.
15For information on the demand for part-time labor in retailing, see Roy
Thurik and Nico Van Der Wijst, “Part-Time Labor in Retailing,” Journal
o f Retailing, Fall 1984, pp. 6 2 -6 8 .
16Persons o f Hispanic origin are included in both the black and white
population groups.
16
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17Beginning with data for 1983, occupational data are classified accord
ing to the system used in the 1980 census, which was redesigned to reflect
the occupational structure o f the changing economy. This system is radi
cally different from the 1970 census-based system which was adopted in
1972 and used through 1982. Therefore, data for 1985 are not comparable
with pre-1983 estimates, and for this reason, occupational data for 1985
only are discussed in the text. Occupational data used in this report are
representative of all workers in the retail trade industry, including the
self-employed, private household workers, and unpaid family workers.
Although these components are relatively small, it should be noted that
these figures differ from the data used in the discussion of part-time,
women, and young workers, which represent only nonagricultural wage
and salary workers excluding private household workers.
18It should be noted, once again, that many of these hourly paid workers
receive wages that are supplemented in varying degress by tips and com
missions. Furthermore, the existence o f a substantial group of retail work
ers earning below the minimum wage does not necessarily indicate viola
tions of the Fair Labor Standards Act but in fact may reflect exemptions to
the Act, many of which pertain to the retail trade industry. For further
information, and a more complete list of full and partial exemptions, see
Report of the Minimum Wage Study Commission, vol. I, pp. 107-38.
19See Valerie A. Personick, “A second look at industry output and
employment trends to 1 9 9 5 Monthly Labor Review, November 1985, pp.
2 6 -4 1 .
Employment in health services:
long-term trends and projections
Demand for health services is expected to grow
in response to the increasing number of elderly people;
but growth prospects to 1995 for the industry's
wage and salary workers are uncertain because of changes
in both the financing and delivery of health care
Anne Kahl and Donald E. Clark
Health care has aptly been described as a system in flux.1
Throughout much of the post-World War II period, U.S.
health policy encouraged expansion of the delivery system
and of patients’ access to it. There was a perceived need for
more physicians and hospitals, and strategies were devel
oped to increase the supply. The number of beds in hospitals
and nursing homes rose, and the supply of physicians,
nurses, and allied health professionals grew very rapidly.
Now that cost control has emerged as a dominant concern,
this has changed: evolving methods of payment for health
services are based on incentives intended to discourage use
of costly resources and to foster price competition. Greater
emphasis on providing care in the most cost-effective setting
is one of the principal trends reshaping this large and impor
tant industry.2 This article explores the potential impact on
demand for health services workers of the sweeping changes
in industry structure currently underway.
Health care is still delivered in doctors’ and dentists’
offices, hospitals, and nursing homes, for the most part, but
the structure of the industry is changing as financial incen
tives for providing (and using) health services are trans
formed. Health maintenance organizations (hmo’s) are
Anne Kahl is an economist in the Office of Economic Growth and Employ
ment Projections, Bureau o f Labor Statistics. Donald E. Clark is an
economist formerly in the same office.
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flourishing and new organizational entities such as urgent
care centers, birthing centers, and hospices are taking hold.
The boundary between financing and delivery of health
care is becoming less distinct, and vertically integrated sys
tems of care are emerging as providers affiliate with one
another, or with hospitals, hmo’s, and insurance companies.
Additional changes in organizational structure lie ahead,
inasmuch as financing is in ferment. The prospective pay
ment system launched by medicare in October 1983 may be
modified as evidence of its impact accumulates and other
payers are experimenting with cost containment programs of
their own.
Yet even as the delivery system changes, equally dra
matic shifts are occurring in the composition of the U.S.
population. Americans are growing older, creating a need
for suitable health, housing, and social services. Moreover,
the segment age 85 and above is recording much faster
growth than any other age group in the population. In the
decade ahead, the increasing number of elderly people, es
pecially those of very advanced age, is expected to heighten
demand for hospital, medical, and surgical care; for long
term care services; and for new services, including geriatric
assessment, case management, adult day care, and respite
care. The effort to provide adequate and appropriate health
care for an aging population within the constraints imposed
by cost containment is stimulating innovative approaches to
17
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
August 1986 •
Trends in Health Services Employment
program design, organization, and financing. With both the
scope and structure of health care services delivery in flux,
however, it is very difficult to anticipate the future pattern
of health services.
Given the growth and aging of the population, advances
in medical technology, and public support for high-quality
care, there is little doubt that the health services industry
will continue to grow over the 1984-95 period that is the
focus of this article. However, there is considerable uncer
tainty as to how rapid future growth will be, and what the
employment implications are likely to be. This article,
undertaken in connection with the Bureau of Labor Statis
tics’ expanding coverage of the service sector, illustrates the
wide range of possibilities. It sets up a series of alternative
scenarios based on qualitative judgments about the possible
course of events affecting the health services industry and
provides projections of industry and occupational employ
ment consistent with those assumptions.
The Bureau has for several decades developed mediumterm projections of the U.S. economy under alternative sets
of assumptions. The latest set of 1995 projections is pre
sented in four articles in the November 1985 issue of the
Review? The low-growth, moderate-growth, and highgrowth alternatives presented there for all industries reflect
alternative fiscal and monetary assumptions, rates of growth
of productivity, unemployment rates, or what may be
thought of as macro alternatives. This article explores the
prospects for a single industry sector, the health services
industry, under micro alternatives outlined in exhibit 1.
No attempt was made to quantify the effects of specific
assumptions in exhibit 1; rather, they portray service deliv
ery patterns and interrelationships that might reasonably be
expected to generate varying levels of demand for health
services. The base case projections presented here were
taken directly from the moderate-growth projections for the
health services industry, while the low- and high-scenario
projections were derived from analytical judgment. Projec
tions tied to all three alternative scenarios thus represent a
qualitative assessment of the likely effect on industry output
and employment of alternative courses of events in the
health services industry.
This analysis pertains to wage and salary workers in the
health services industry only. Excluded are self-employed
and unpaid family workers, on the one hand, and workers
employed outside the health sector, on the other. Examples
of health professionals excluded from the analysis are
(1) physicians, dentists, podiatrists, chiropractors, pharma
cists, nurses, physical therapists, speech pathologists and
audiologists, and other practitioners who are self-employed;
and (2) nurses, nursing aides, dietitians, dental hygienists,
social workers, psychologists, occupational therapists,
physicians, dentists, and others employed in schools, pris
ons, residential care facilities, temporary help agencies, and
other industry sectors outside health. These exclusions have
different effects on the validity of the analysis, depending on
18
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the occupation or industry of interest. Only about 1 physi
cian in 4 is self-employed and, as such, excluded from the
scope of this study. However, most chiropractors, and many
dentists, podiatrists, and optometrists are self-employed,
which diminishes the relevance of this analysis for those
occupations. Note, however, that self-employed practi
tioners generally work in one or another of the health serv
ices industry sectors, and are subject to many of the same
trends as wage and salary workers in those sectors. Confin
ing the analysis to the health services industry limits the
ability to generalize the findings, too. Because of differ
ences in industry distribution, the projections cover virtually
all radiologic technologists, for example; about 4 of 5 regis
tered nurses; 3 of 5 occupational therapists; but only about
1 of 5 speech pathologists and audiologists, social workers,
or psychologists.
Projection highlights
The health services industry is defined according to the
1972 Standard Industrial Classification (sic), and includes
the following:
SIC
801
802
803
804
805
806
807
808
809
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
Offices of physicians
Offices of dentists
Offices of osteopathic physicians
Offices of other health practitioners
Nursing and personal care facilities
Hospitals
Medical and dental laboratories
Outpatient care facilities
Health and allied services, not elsewhere classified
In 1995, the number of wage and salary jobs in the health
services industry is projected to vary from 7.3 to 10.5 mil
lion, compared with nearly 7.2 million in 1984. (See
table 1.) The low scenario shows a barely perceptible
2-percent increase in employment over the 1984-95 period,
stagnation that represents a radical departure from past
trends. The base case yields a projected employment in
crease of 26 percent. This is faster than average growth
compared with the economy as a whole, but a significant
slowdown by health industry standards. Even the high sce
nario, a 46-percent increase over 11 years, implies a slower
rate of job growth than in the past.
The 1995 alternatives have a more pronounced effect on
some health industry sectors than on others. At one extreme,
hospital employment is projected to decline by 17 percent
under the assumptions of the low scenario, from 4.1 million
jobs in 1984 to 3.4 million in 1995. Alternatively, under the
assumptions of the high scenario, hospital employment
would exceed 5 million in 1995, an increase of 24 percent.
Underlying the three projection alternatives are significantly
different assumptions about hospitals’ response to cost pres
sures and the keenly competitive health care environment.
(See exhibit 1.)
Job growth in offices of physicians is projected to outpace
the industry as a whole. Nonetheless, under the low sce-
nario, extensive market penetration by health maintenance
organizations (hmo’s) and imposition of stringent fee re
straints are assumed to produce a marked slowdown in
growth in this major industry. Wage and salary employment
in offices of physicians is projected to vary from 1.2 to
nearly 1.5 million jobs in 1995, compared with 908,000 in
1984.
Projected 1995 employment in nursing and personal care
facilities varies from 1.3 to nearly 2.1 million wage and
salary jobs, up from 1.1 million in 1984. Markedly different
assumptions about future directions in long-term care help
explain the wide variation in nursing home growth between
the low and high scenarios. Strong demand for home health
care, a key assumption of all three scenarios, is the principal
reason for projected employment growth in health and allied
services, not elsewhere classified.
Occupations concentrated in industries that have widely
differing growth prospects exhibit the greatest variation
under the alternatives. This is particularly true of occupa
tions located for the most part in hospitals and nursing
homes. Employment in hospital-based occupations such as
respiratory therapist and surgical technician is projected to
decline in the low scenario, but grow at a faster than average
rate under assumptions of the high scenario. In the case of
nursing aides, projected patterns of industry growth are
largely responsible for a decline in employment in the low
scenario for 1995, compared with much faster than average
growth in the high scenario.
Historical trends
Health care has enjoyed a long period of expansion, with
continuous growth in funding of services and programs from
both the public and private sectors. National health expendi
tures have grown rapidly, consuming an increasing propor
tion of the Nation’s resources. The growing share of gross
national product (gnp) allocated to health, up from 4.4 per
cent of current dollar gnp in 1950 to 10.6 percent in 1984,
is reflected by many indicators of economic activity— per
Table 1.
sonal consumption expenditures on health care, employ
ment, and payroll expenses.
Before turning to an analysis of possible future trends, we
should take a careful look at the past. A number of interre
lated factors are responsible for the escalation of spending
and the expansion of employment in the industry, but incen
tives built into the health care financing system itself are
singularly important. Increases in private health insurance
coverage and the introduction of major public programs,
including medicare and medicaid, have encouraged greater
use of hospital and nursing home care by making such
services affordable to segments of the population previously
shut out of the health market by price considerations. Meth
ods of financing have shifted as a result of efforts to broaden
access to health care. In 1966, the consumer paid directly
for half of all personal health care spending, according to
estimates by the Health Care Financing Administration. The
other half was financed about equally by insurance and
public programs. By 1984, public programs accounted for
almost 40 percent of all spending; insurance, 31 percent; and
the consumer, 28 percent.4
The shift of payment responsibility from the consumer to
“third parties” such as government and insurance companies
is thought to have made patients and providers alike insensi
tive to the true cost of treatment and care. Both perceive the
price of services to be lower than it really is. New programs,
new technologies, and new types of personnel have been
added because of perceived clinical benefits, with little con
cern for the cost implications. However, the prevalence of
health insurance, as well as the cost of premiums and extent
of coverage, differ greatly by sector. Health insurance and
public programs currently provide about 90 percent of all
spending for hospital care; 72 percent for physicians’ serv
ices; and 50 percent for nursing home care.
Methods of financing health care have helped shape med
ical practice patterns and spurred the rapid diffusion of med
ical technology.5 For many years, health insurance has
given providers an incentive to apply medical technology,
Wage and salary employment in the health services industry, 1984 and three projected 1995 alternatives
[Employment in thousands]
Average annual rate of change
Projected 1995 employment
Industry
Actual 1984
employment
Projected 1984-95
Historical
Low
Base
High
1972-77
1977-84
1982-84
1972-84
Low
Base
High
Total, health services industry .......................................
7,188.7
7,325
9,054
10,535
5.3
3.6
1.8
4.3
0.2
2.1
3.5
Offices of physicians ................................................................
Offices of dentists ....................................................................
Offices of osteopathic physicians .............................................
Offices of other health practitioners .........................................
Nursing and personal care facilities .........................................
Hospitals...................................................................................
Medical and dental laboratories...............................................
Outpatient care facilities............................................................
Health and allied services, not elsewhere classified ...............
907.5
425.7
129.8
'148.1
1,144.6
4,078.1
113.2
190.7
1151.0
1,206
533
39
227
1,271
3,401
126
284
238
1,313
551
44
290
1,650
4,366
135
390
315
1,450
562
49
356
2,057
5,045
140
450
426
7.6
8.8
8.1
9.7
7.8
3.8
6.1
12.7
13.9
5.0
5.8
6.0
11.1
4.2
2.2
2.8
11.5
16.0
4.9
5.3
5.6
10.6
3.6
-0.8
1.7
9.0
20.7
6.1
7.0
6.9
10.5
5.7
2.9
4.1
12.0
15.1
2.6
2.1
2.5
4.0
1.0
-1 .7
1.0
3.7
4.3
3.4
2.4
3.6
6.3
3.4
0.6
1.6
6.7
7.0
4.4
2.6
4.6
8.3
5.5
2.0
1.9
8.1
9.9
1 Unpublished
bls
data.
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
N o te : “Unpublished data” do not meet publication standards for accuracy and reliability and
therefore are not official Bureau estimates.
19
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
Exhibit 1.
August 1986 •
Trends in Health Services Employment
Assumptions underlying various projection scenarios
Assumptions
Factor
Level and
distribution of
health sector
output in 1995
Technology
Reimbursement
Low scenario
Base case
3.0 percent of total private output:
$169 billion in 1977 dollars
3.5 percent of total private output:
$200 billion in 1977 dollars
4.0 percent of total private output:
$226 billion in 1977 dollars
Distribution by
Sector 140:
Sector 141:
Sector 142:
Distribution by
Sector 140:
Sector 141:
Sector 142:
Distribution by
Sector 140:
Sector 141:
Sector 142:
sector
47 percent
32 percent
20 percent
sector
42 percent
36 percent
22 percent
High scenario
sector
40 percent
36 percent
24 percent
Same as base case.
Advances that permit complex
procedures to be performed on
an outpatient basis continue, fa
cilitating shift in delivery of
services to nonhospital settings.
Same as base case.
Technology applied more selec
tively than in base case.
Advances in diagnostic and treat
ment techniques continue, fos
tering greater service intensity
(more tests and procedures per
patient).
Service intensity somewhat greater
than in base case.
Diffusion of high-cost technologies Rapid diffusion of high-cost tech
constrained by restrictive reim
nologies continues. Greater ef
bursement policies and hospi
fort to develop technologies that
tals’ difficulty in raising capital.
reduce resource utilization.
Widespread application of tech
nologies that reduce resource
utilization.
Diffusion of high-cost technologies
more rapid than in base case.
Stringent reimbursement policies
established for physician serv
ices.
Some tightening of reimbursement
for physician services.
Less tightening of reimbursement
for physician services than in the
base case.
Stringent constraints imposed on
reimbursement for hospital ser
vices. Together with hmo ex
pansion, these contribute to re
duced demand for inpatient
hospital care.
Continued constraints on reim
bursement for hospital services,
whether through prospective
payment or other methods.
Fewer constraints on reimbursement
for hospital services than in the
base case.
Stringent constraints on medicare, Some added constraints on medi
medicaid, and other third-party
care, medicaid, and other thirdreimbursement for nursing home
party reimbursement for nursing
and home health services.
home and home health services.
Fewer constraints on third-party re
imbursement for nursing home
and home health services than in
the base case.
Same as base case.
Shift from inpatient to outpatient
care continues.
Same as base case.
Substantial shift away from feefor-service medicine, hmo’s and
nonphysician providers account
for larger share of office visits
for primary care than in the
base case.
Moderate shift from fee-for-service Limited shift from fee-for-service
medicine to managed care,
medicine to managed care, re
chiefly because of hmo growth.
flecting slower HMO growth than
in base case.
Delivery system:
Systemwide
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Exhibit 1.
Continued—Assumptions underlying various projection scenarios
Assumptions
Factor
Low scenario
Base case
High scenario
Delivery system:
—continued
Systemwide
Hospitals
Nursing
homes
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Same as base case.
Some shift in demand for primary Same as base case.
care from physicians to other prac
titioners because of consumer cost
sharing and decision making. Con
tributing factors include wellness
and fitness movement; acceptance
of nonphysician providers includ
ing nurse practitioners, podiatrists,
and chiropractors; greater personal
responsibility for health, including
treatment options.
Less increase in demand for elec
tive or nonemergency health ser
vices than in the base case.
Moderate increase in demand for
health services of an elective or
nonemergency nature, such as
dental, vision, mental health,
counseling, and nutritional serv
ices.
Same as base case.
Same as base case.
Nusing home remains principal
site for formal long-term care, de
spite strong growth of home health
and community-based programs.
Occupancy declines sharply,
largely because of widespread
HMO enrollments and practice pat
terns that limit hospitalization of
HMO subscribers.
Occupancy continues to trend
down moderately, then levels out.
Occupancy rises, reflecting less
stringent controls on admissions
and lengths of stay by HMO’s, in
surance plans, employers, and other
payers.
Hospitals emphasize inpatient
care. Diversification and expan
sion into outpatient and
community-based services and
programs inhibited by severe prob
lems in capital formation. Inability
to compensate for reduced demand
for inpatient care forces some hos
pitals to cut back or close alto
gether.
Hospitals provide mix of inpatient
and outpatient care. Diversify and
expand into nontraditional areas
including home health, hospice,
nursing home, rehabilitation, alco
hol treatment, occupational health
and employee assistance, health
promotion and wellness, birthing
centers, and outpatient surgery.
Addition of new services enables
hospitals to compensate in part for
reduced demand for inpatient care.
Hospitals provide mix of inpatient
and outpatient care, and many offer
such amenities as luxury suites and
gourmet meals. Diversify and ex
pand into nontraditional areas of
patient care. Acceleration of trend
toward specialization, joint ven
tures, multihospital networks. Hos
pitals compete effectively with
other providers for outpatients and
new sources of revenue.
Same as base case.
Techniques for managing patient
flow, monitoring physician prac
tice patterns, and achieving staff
ing efficiences are implemented.
Same as base case.
Bed supply severely constrained
by certificate-of-need regulations
and investor uncertainties about
the nursing home market.
Bed supply increases as certificateof-need constraints are lifted and
investors take a more favorable
view of industry profitability.
Bed supply increases substantially
as investors take a favorable view
of private pay patients’ ability to
support such expansion.
Much greater demand for elective
or nonemergency services than in
the base case because of consumer
preference plus changes in in
surance coverage and out-of-pocket
spending.
21
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
Exhibit 1.
August 1986 •
Trends in Health Services Employment
Continued—Assumptions underlying various projection scenarios
Assumptions
Factor
Low scenario
Base case
High scenario
Fee-for-service medicine dimin
ishes in importance. Greater stan
dardization of medical practice as
physician services predominantly
provided through formal organiza
tions or managed care systems
such as hmo’s, which establish
guidelines for ordering of tests,
procedures, and hospital stays.
Fee-for-service medicine continues
to predominate despite HMO ex
pansion and growth in preferred
provider arrangements.
Fee-for-service medicine flourishes.
HMO expansion and growth in pre
ferred provider arrangements is less
than in the base case.
Same as base case.
Trends toward group practice, ad
vances in technology, and in
creased case-mix complexity as
sumed to produce larger and more
diverse medical office staffs. As
more nurses, clinical laboratory
personnel, radiologic technolo
gists, medical assistants, and oth
ers hired to assist with tests and
procedures, job growth for clinical
support staff expected to outpace
that for physicians, and for the in
dustry as a whole.
Same as base case.
Same as base case.
Office automation, plus availabil
Same as base case.
ity of software tailored for medical
office use, assumed to generate
productivity gains and somewhat
slower job growth for secretaries,
typists, and other clerical staff
than for the industry as a whole.
Offices of
dentists
Same as base case.
Little change in use of hygienists,
assistants, auxiliary personnel.
Trend toward group practice and
retail dentistry helps sustain wide
spread utilization of dental auxil
iaries.
Offices of
other
health
practitioners
Same as base case.
Staffing patterns remain relatively Same as base case.
stable because establishment size
is assumed to stay small. Among
practitioners, job growth assumed
to be very rapid in fields where
public and professional acceptance
of private practice, and lifting of
legal and reimbursement restric
tions, is most recent. More moder
ate growth among established
practitioners including chiroprac
tors, optometrists, and podiatrists.
Delivery system:
—continued
Physicians
Staffing:
Offices of
physicians
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Same as base case.
Exhibit 1.
Continued—Assumptions underlying various projection scenarios
Assumptions
Factor
Low scenario
Base case
High scenario
Staffing:
—continued
Nursing homes Same as base case.
Efforts to streamline operations as Same as base case.
sumed to result in joint purchasing
and other shared services; more
use of computers in clinical, finan
cial, and administrative areas; and
smaller proportion of staff in cleri
cal, food service, and housekeep
ing jobs.
Same as base case.
Case-mix assumed to include
larger proportion of severely im
paired patients, notably
Alzheimer’s and other chronic
“heavy-care” patients, necessitat
ing larger nursing staff.
Same as base case.
Increased number of posthospital
Same as base case.
patients requiring nasogastric feed
ing, ventilator support, and other
advanced nursing skills assumed to
produce somewhat greater use of
licensed nurses.
Same as base case.
Greater reliance on private pay pa
tients than in the base case assumed
to produce staff changes aimed at
extending range of services and im
proving quality of care; more pro
fessionals on staff, notably rn’s
and lpn’s, therapists, physicians,
pharmacists, social workers, and
activity directors.
Hospitals
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Same as base case.
Emphasis on management tech
niques to schedule patients, pro
cedures, and staff; automated sys
tems to handle clinical, financial,
and administrative records; con
tract services in areas including
food service, housekeeping, and
clinical laboratory; shared service
arrangements in purchasing, laun
dry, materials warehousing, and
computer support.
Same as base case.
Same as base case.
Larger proportion of hospital staff
in professional, managerial, and
clinical jobs; fewer in clerical,
cleaning and housekeeping, pro
tective service, and other support
occupations.
Same as base case.
23
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
Exhibit 1.
August 1986 •
Trends in Health Services Employment
Continued—Assumptions underlying various projection scenarios
Assumptions
Factor
Hospitals
—continued
Same as base case.
Emphasis on identifying new mar
kets and adding new programs and
services assumed to contribute to
larger proportion of social work
ers, registered nurses, and thera
pists; more marketing and public
relations specialists as well.
Same as base case.
Changes in mix of nursing staff:
substantially greater use of r n ’ s ,
less reliance on licensed practical
nurses and aides.
Same as base case.
whether in the form of “little ticket items” such as laboratory
tests and x-rays, or costly high-tech procedures such as
coronary bypass surgery or magnetic resonance scans. De
spite recent changes, fee schedules continue to reward
physicians more generously for performing tests and proce
dures than for providing “cognitive services” such as asking
questions, listening, and counseling. Extensive ordering of
tests and procedures has traditionally been covered by health
insurance, contributing to the increasing diffusion of both
old and new technologies.6
In addition to the role of insurance, other elements have
contributed to health sector expansion. Among them are
population growth; rising personal and family incomes; pub
lic policies designed to support medical research and expand
the supply of health care facilities and personnel; advances
in scientific knowledge that result in medical intervention
for conditions previously undiagnosed or regarded as untreatable; technological developments that foster the use of
sophisticated and expensive medical equipment; and prac
tice patterns that encourage referral to medical specialists
and extensive use of costly, high-tech procedures.
Historically, only a small share of total increases in health
care outlays can be attributed directly to population aging.
But in the future, upward shifts in the age structure are
expected to have an effect on health care outlays, particu
larly those for inpatient hospital and nursing home care.7
Potential implications of projected growth in the elderly
population for health services demand are discussed later, in
the section on alternative scenarios.
Output trends. Historical data on the real value of industry
output underscore the dramatic expansion of the health sec
tor over the past 25 years. Table 2 documents year-to-year
changes since 1960 in the real value of industry output for
the total private economy and for the health sector as defined
in the b l s economic growth model.8 In the economic growth
system, output is measured as gross domestic output or
duplicated output. Health sector output includes total expen
24
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
High scenario
Base case
Low scenario
ditures for products and services of physicians, dentists, and
other practitioners such as chiropractors and podiatrists; ex
penditures for care in private hospitals and nursing homes;
purchases of medical and dental laboratory services; premi
ums paid to health maintenance organizations; and expendi
tures for services delivered by home health agencies and
outpatient care facilities.9
Since 1960, growth in health sector output has been siz
able and relatively stable compared with total output
growth. Despite price increases that have been much higher
than the average for the economy as a whole, the health
Table 2. Output, health sector and total private economy,
1960-84
O u tp u t
T o ta l p riv a te e c o n o m y
H ealth s e c to r1
Y ea r
M illio n s o f
197 7 d o llars
A n n u al
pe rce n t
c h an g e
M illio n s o f
197 7 d o llars
A nnual
pe rce n t
H e alth s e c to r
o u tp u t a s a
p e rc e n t o f
to ta l o u tp u t
c h an g e
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
...............
...............
...............
...............
...............
...............
...............
...............
...............
...............
$1,910,951
1,948,379
2,051,418
2,150,199
2,251,433
2,238,384
2,510,818
2,570,789
2,693,748
2,776,735
1.96
5.29
4.82
4.71
5.91
5.30
2.39
4.74
3.08
$ 38,021
39,365
41,893
44,087
49,083
51,133
53,390
57,528
62,113
66,931
3.5
6.4
5.2
11.3
4.2
4.4
7.8
8.0
7.8
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
...............
...............
...............
...............
...............
...............
...............
...............
...............
...............
2,753,283
2,847,304
3,037,923
3,204,583
3,161,930
3,051,044
3,281,891
3,455,167
3,620,496
3,733,089
-0.84
3.41
6.69
5.49
-1.33
-3.51
7.57
5.31
4.78
3.11
72,427
77,767
82,794
89,058
91,542
98,573
102,839
108,136
112,855
116,925
8.2
7.4
6.5
7.6
2.8
7.7
4.3
5.2
4.4
3.6
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.1
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
...............
...............
...............
...............
...............
3,640,248
3,698,255
3,574,329
3,748,177
4,085,312
-2.49
1.59
-3.35
4.86
8.99
121,843
126,304
130,462
134,826
141,174
4.2
3.7
3.3
3.3
4.7
3.3
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.5
1 Economic growth sectors 140 (Doctors’ and dentists’ offices), 141 (Hospitals), and 142
(Medical services, not elsewhere classified). Data include veterinary services, exclude offices
of optometrists.
sector averaged a 5.6-percent annual gain in real output
during 1960-84, compared with a 3.3-percent rise in real
g n p . Increases in health sector output were greatest in the
decade following the 1965 enactment of medicare and medi
caid, averaging 7.2 percent a year from 1965 to 1973.
Faster growth in health output than in total private output
is responsible for the increasing ratio depicted in chart 1.
From 2.0 percent in 1960, the health sector’s share of total
real output climbed to 3.6 percent in 1982. The drop to
3.5 percent in 1984 shows the effect on this statistic of a
vigorously rebounding economy.
Employment trends. Along with a rise in demand for the
output of the health sector, employment has grown at a very
rapid pace. Health sector employment averaged 5.9-percent
annual growth during 1960-84— nearly three times the rate
of job growth for the private economy as a whole. Almost
32 million new wage and salary jobs were created in the
private economy and of these, nearly 4.6 million or
14 percent, were health sector jobs. Health sector employ
ment has exhibited a remarkably stable pattern of growth for
more than two decades, as table 3 shows, and annual gains
have consistently outstripped those posted for the total econ
omy. Only twice in the 25 years has job growth in health
failed to outpace economy wide growth— in 1978 and again
in 1984. The health sector’s share of wage and salary em
ployment in the private economy has more than doubled as
a result, rising from 3.1 to 7.4 percent between 1960 and
1984.
Hospitals have dominated the health care system for
decades. From a technological perspective, inpatient hospi
tal care is the cornerstone of our system for delivering com
plex, acute care services. The hospital is the “workshop” for
most physicians and the place where most health profession
als receive their clinical training. From an employment per
spective, hospitals hire the majority of health industry work
ers (4.1 of 7.2 million in 1984) and provided more than
40 percent of the 2.8 million new jobs created in the industry
between 1972 and 1984. (See table 4.)10
From 1972-1982, hospitals posted an average annual job
gain of 3.6 percent. During this period, outpatient and clinic
care grew— restraining demand for inpatient services— and
“service intensity” replaced bed capacity as the driving force
behind industry expansion. Service intensity refers to the
quantity and complexity of services provided per admission.
For example, a cancer patient may require 19 lab tests, 18
pharmacy prescriptions, 3 radiology procedures, and 1 sur
gical procedure per admission. Contributing to the growth in
hospital service intensity throughout the 1970’s were the
quickening pace of technological advance, changes in treat
ment approach, and comprehensive insurance coverage cou
pled with widespread use of cost-based reimbursement.
Gains in the number of tests and procedures per admission
more than offset the slowdown in inpatient days during the
1970’s, a slowdown caused by shorter hospital stays and
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Table 3. Employment, health sector and total private
economy, 1960-84
Wage and salary employment
Total private economy
Health sectors1
Year
Employment
in
thousands
Annual
percent
change
Employment
in
thousands
Annual
percent
change
Health sector
employment
as a percent
of total private
employment
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
.............
.............
.............
.............
.............
.............
.............
.............
.............
.............
50,785
50,410
51,410
52,318
53,534
55,390
57,677
58,939
60,550
62,513
-0.74
2.19
1.56
2.32
3.47
4.13
2.19
2.73
3.24
1,568
1,660
1,760
1,857
1,983
2,100
2,225
2,454
2,659
2,883
5.9
6.0
5.5
6.8
5.9
6.0
10.3
8.4
8.4
3.1
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.7
3.8
3.9
4.2
4.4
4.6
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
.............
.............
.............
.............
.............
.............
.............
.............
.............
.............
62,583
62,539
64,507
67,180
68,235
66,317
68,587
71,438
75,207
77,971
0.11
-0.07
3.15
4.14
1.57
-2.81
3.42
4.16
5.28
3.68
3,071
3,254
3,417
3,648
3,896
4,144
4,364
4,599
4,808
5,013
6.6
6.0
5.0
6.8
6.8
6.4
5.3
5.4
4.5
4.3
4.9
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.7
6.2
6.4
6.4
6.4
6.4
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
.............
.............
.............
.............
.............
78,176
79,173
77,849
78,500
82,593
0.26
1.28
-1.67
0.84
5.21
5,302
5,596
5,846
6,025
6,141
5.8
5.5
4.5
3.1
1.9
6.8
7.1
7.5
7.7
7.4
1 Economic growth sectors 140 (Doctors' and dentists' offices), 141 (Hospitals), and 142
(Medical services, not elsewhere classified). Data include veterinary services, exclude offices
of optometrists.
growing substitution of outpatient for inpatient services.
Outpatient visits to community hospitals rose by 21 percent
between 1973 and 1983, compared with a 14-percent in
crease in inpatient admissions.11 Hospital employment grew
38 percent over the same period, largely because of signifi
cant growth in laboratory, diagnostic, surgical, and other
services rendered per patient day.
Employment in offices of physicians and osteopathic
physicians rose more than twice as fast as hospital employ
ment during 1972-84. Among the factors contributing to
rapid growth over the entire period were substantial in
creases in the supply of practitioners, widespread insurance
coverage for medical and surgical care, greater service in
tensity, technological developments that permitted substitu
tion of ambulatory services for inpatient hospital care, and
emphasis on the use of nurses, medical assistants, and other
support staff to extend the physician’s productivity. The
aging of the population also contributed to job growth inas
much as both the number of physician visits per capita and
intensity of services per visit are relatively higher for the
elderly. Some of the growth registered in offices of physi
cians and osteopathic physicians is a statistical artifact, a
consequence of practitioners’ increasing propensity to incor
porate for tax and other business reasons. The resultant shift
in class-of-worker status (from self-employed practitioners,
who are not included in these employment estimates, to
wage and salary workers, who are) affects the trend data
displayed in table 4. However, it is impossible to quantify
25
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
August 1986 •
Trends in Health Services Employment
the impact of this factor on industry growth. Physicians
currently account for approximately 19 percent of wage and
salary employment in offices of physicians and a somewhat
smaller percentage of employment in offices of osteopathic
physicians.
Historically, employment has risen much faster in nursing
and personal care homes than in hospitals. Increased medi
caid coverage for nursing home care, State policies of trans
ferring patients from mental hospitals to nursing homes,
growth in real incomes, and an aging population help ex
plain the very rapid rise in the industry’s employment during
the early 1970’s.12 Nursing home employment increased at
an average annual rate of 7.8 percent from 1972 to 1977,
then slowed as numerous States imposed controls on nursing
home construction and otherwise sought to limit medicaid
outlays. Additions to nursing home capacity have not kept
up with population growth in recent years, and the disparity
may grow, according to industry observers. Together with
low medicaid reimbursement rates in many States, changes
in tax laws have made nursing home construction less attrac
tive to investors.
There has been little change in recent years in the way
nursing home care is financed: about half of the money
comes from patients and their families, and the rest comes
from public programs, of which medicaid is by far the most
important. Because additional nursing home beds may gen
erate higher levels of medicaid spending, States have an
interest in curtailing growth. Some have done so by cutting
reimbursement, implementing stringent certificate-of-need
policies, and instituting moratoria on new nursing home
construction.13
Changes in the industry’s structure have occurred since
Federal subsidies for nursing home care began in 1956,
under the Old Age Assistance program. Changes include an
increasingly sophisticated medical orientation in nursing
home care, a shift from government-owned to proprietary
homes, and, more recently, a growing concentration of
ownership in multifacility chains. The more sophisticated
medical orientation reflects medicaid requirements for cov
ered care, and State as well as Federal efforts to improve
quality by enforcing staffing standards. Both skilled and
intermediate levels of medicaid-covered care require more
nursing involvement than the small old-age homes from
which the industry evolved.14
The increasing professionalism of nursing home care,
over the decade of the 1970’s, produced an increase in
staff-patient ratios. These ratios interact with the bed supply
(that is, number of residents) to determine the rate of
employment growth. According to the National Center for
Health Statistics, the number of full-time equivalent
employees in facilities with 25 beds or more increased
98 percent from 1969 to 1980, while the number of nursing
Chart 1. Health sector output as a percentage of total private output, 1960-1984,
and projected 1985
Percentage
26
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Percentage
>«*■
Wage and salary employment in the health services industry, 1972-
CO
Table 4.
[Employment in thousands]
To ta l, all
Y ea r
O ffices
O ffices
O ffices
O ffic es o f
N u rsin g and
health
of
of
of
o th e r
p erso n al care
in d u s tries
phy sic ian s
d e n tists
o s te o p ath s 2
p ra ctitio n ers 2
fa c ilitie s
M edical and
H o s p ita ls 1
O u tp a tie n t
H ealth and
dental
care
a llie d s ervice s,
lab o rato ries
fa c ilitie s
not e ls e w h e re c la s s ifie d 2
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
................................
................................
................................
................................
................................
................................
................................
................................
4,338.1
4,590.3
4,853.0
5,125.5
5,360.5
5,615.7
5,867.1
6,101.1
448.1
497.5
543.3
580.5
613.7
645.9
680.6
716.8
188.3
206.3
227.4
247.4
266.2
286.6
302.3
322.0
13.4
14.9
15.9
16.7
18.1
19.8
21.2
22.6
44.6
50.5
56.0
60.2
64.6
70.9
78.5
88.0
591.2
659.0
708.1
759.3
809.1
860.0
910.6
950.8
2,906.4
3,000.8
3,126.4
3,265.4
3,373.3
3,497.0
3,613.7
3,716.7
69.6
75.4
79.5
84.2
89.9
93.5
99.1
102.2
48.8
54.6
61.0
70.4
78.9
88.9
100.4
113.0
27.8
31.4
35.4
41.3
46.7
53.2
60.8
69.0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
................................
................................
................................
................................
................................
6,411.5
6,699.2
6,941.1
7,103.0
7,188.7
750.0
786.8
825.0
867.2
907.5
341.3
359.9
383.9
406.7
425.7
24.1
25.1
26.7
28.0
29.8
96.4
108.9
121.0
134.6
148.1
996.6
1,028.9
1,067.1
1,106.6
1,144.6
3,883.7
4,041.2
4,143.8
4,151.5
4,078.1
104.7
107.5
109.5
111.6
113.2
132.7
149.2
160.4
171.9
190.7
81.8
91.7
103.7
125.1
151.0
6.1
3.2
1.7
4.1
12.7
12.5
9.0
12.0
13.9
14.3
20.7
15.1
A v e ra g e a n n u al rate o f c h an g e (in p e rce n t)
1972-77
1977-82
1982-84
1972-84
..........................
..........................
..........................
..........................
6.7
4.3
1.8
4.3
7.6
5.0
4.9
6.1
8.8
8.2
5.3
7.0
8.1
6.2
5.6
6.9
9.7
11.3
10.6
10.5
1 sic 806 plus State and local government hospitals. Data exclude Federal Government hospitals.
2 Unpublished
bls
7.8
4.4
3.6
5.7
3.8
3.5
-0.1
2.9
N o t e : “Unpublished data” do not meet publication standards for accuracy and reliability and
therefore are not official b l s estimates.
data.
home residents rose by 75 percent. The number of full-time
equivalent employees per 100 beds rose from 55.0 in 1969
to 62.9 in 1980.15 However, the overall increase in the
staff-to-bed ratio masks significant variation among facili
ties. Staffing ratios vary according to such factors as degree
of illness, payment source, facility size, certification, own
ership, and commitment to quality care.
Three industries experienced exceptionally rapid job
growth over the 1972-84 period. The industries and their
average annual employment gains are as follows: offices of
other health practitioners (10 percent), outpatient care facil
ities (12 percent), and health and allied services, not else
where classified (15 percent).
Offices of other health practitioners is a diverse industry
that includes a wide variety of health professionals in solo
or group practice: chiropractors, optometrists, podiatrists,
nurse practitioners, mid wives, physical therapists, occupa
tional therapists, speech pathologists and audiologists, dieti
tians and nutritionists, social workers, and psychologists.
No less diverse is the outpatient care facilities industry,
which includes hmo’s, community mental health centers,
family planning clinics, urgent care centers, outpatient sur
gical centers, birthing centers, and freestanding hospices.
Health and allied services, not elsewhere classified, is a
relatively homogeneous industry, comprising home health
agencies and blood banks.
Job growth in these settings is consistent with steadily
increasing acceptance of nonphysician providers, together
with the gradual shift away from the hospital as the exclu
sive site of complex health care. Throughout the decade of
the 1970’s, ambulatory care alternatives became more im
portant. Technological developments made it possible to
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provide increasingly sophisticated care on an outpatient
basis, while changes in insurance coverage and benefits
made such care financially attractive to health care con
sumers. The pace of the shift from inpatient to outpatient
care has accelerated dramatically in recent years because of
the emphasis on providing cost-effective health services.
Recent developments
Increased public and private sector emphasis on health
care cost containment is the most important development in
recent years. Health economists and policymakers had long
been concerned about rapidly rising health care expendi
tures, but it was not until the early 1980’s that the combined
impact of inflation, recession, soaring outlays for employee
health benefits, threatened medicare insolvency, and State
fiscal crises produced significant action by business, labor,
and government. The hospital payment system mandated by
the Social Security Amendments of 1983, medicare’s
prospective payment legislation, is the leading example of
such action.
Medicare’s system links payment for hospital inpatient
services to rates for each of 467 diagnosis-related groups
(drg’s). Hospitals know in advance how much medicare
will pay for the treatment of a patient with a particular
diagnosis. Under the previous cost-based retrospective sys
tem, hospitals were reimbursed for whatever they spent.
Because hospitals now bear the loss if the cost of treatment
exceeds the fixed medicare payment, it is in their interest to
be selective about the patients they admit, scrutinize tests
and procedures, discharge patients as soon as possible, and
encourage greater use of outpatient services. Not surpris
ingly, hospitals have responded to the new system with
27
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
August 1986 •
Trends in Health Services Employment
programs for managing admissions and patient flow, moni
toring physician practice patterns, and controlling operating
costs.
Cost containment initiatives figure prominently among
the reasons for a recent decline in hospital employment.
Average annual employment in private, State, and local
government hospitals stood at 4,040,900 in 1985, 110,600
fewer jobs than in the peak year of 1983. More than 73,000
hospital jobs disappeared in 1984, and 37,000 more in 1985.
While no single factor can fully explain the loss of hospital
jobs, management initiatives to reduce labor costs (about 50
percent of community hospitals’ operating budgets) through
such belt-tightening measures as staff cuts, hiring freezes,
greater use of part-time and on-call staff, and a shift to
contract services are partly responsible. However, a drop in
hospital utilization— notably inpatient admissions, staffed
beds, and length of stay— is the underlying factor.
Data from the American Hospital Association indicate a
shift in utilization since the beginning of 1983: shorter hos
pital stays by elderly patients and a sharp decline in admis
sions of patients under age 65.16 The average length-of-stay
of patients age 65 and above fell from 11.1 to 10.1 days
between 1977 and 1982, then dropped to 8.8 days at the end
of 1984. Shorter hospital stays for elderly patients appear to
be the direct result of incentives to hospitals in the drg
system, although technology and changing medical prac
tices may be responsible as well. The use of lasers, for
example, has reduced recovery periods and lengths-of-stay
for certain types of eye surgery. The availability of ad
vanced techniques for delivering antibiotic and nutrition
therapy at home may also speed discharge.
The reasons for falling admissions of patients under age
65 are not well understood.17 The most likely causes are
utilization review and the expanded use of consumer cost
sharing features built into employee benefit plans, improved
health insurance coverage for ambulatory care and the
growth of alternative care settings, increased public aware
ness of the importance of avoiding hospitalization when
possible, plus reduced access to care for the poor. Limita
tions on medicaid program eligibility and increased finan
cial barriers to serving the uninsured may be holding down
hospital use by these groups.18 In addition, economic weak
ness in regions with heavy concentrations of industries ex
periencing poor recovery may be an element.19
Hospitals confronted with reduced demand for inpatient
services have begun to develop a business strategy20 that
emphasizes joint ventures, mergers, specialization, and in
troduction of new programs and services. Home health care
is the alternative service offered by more hospitals than any
other, according to several recent surveys.21 Other services
being implemented by hospital administrators include hos
pice care, nursing home units, rehabilitation, alcohol treat
ment, occupational health and employee assistance, birthing
centers, outpatient surgery, cancer screening, and geriatric
assessment. A number of hospitals have set up wellness and
28
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fitness centers that offer medical and physiological testing,
assessment of lifestyle-related health risks, health educa
tion, and sports medicine.
Other changes, too, are occurring in the health care envi
ronment. One of the most striking is the rise in hmo enroll
ments, up from 10 to 21 million subscribers between 1981
and 1985.22 Industry observers expect continued rapid
growth. There is a wide range of opinion on the extent to
which hmo’s will penetrate traditional health-care markets
(many analysts expect hmo enrollment to peak at 30 to
35 million by 1995, but some estimates are considerably
higher).
hmo’s are prepaid health insurance plans designed to de
liver affordable and comprehensive medical services to en
rolled members. Starting from the premise that physicians
govern a substantial portion of total health spending by
virtue of their authority to hospitalize, order batteries of
tests, and so forth, hmo’s and other systems of “managed
care” seek to control utilization by influencing physicians’
ordering behavior. Comparative studies have found that
hmo enrollees pay 10 to 40 percent less than those enrolled
in fee-for-service health insurance plans. In addition, the
hospitalization rate for people enrolled in hmo’s is con
siderably below the rate for those enrolled in traditional
fee-for-service plans. This is attributed to hmo emphasis
on preventive health care, broad ambulatory cover
age, multispecialty staff, and risk-sharing by hmo physi
cians, who are offered incentives to reduce unnecessary
hospitalization.
There are three types of hmo’s. The first, called a “staff
model” hmo, delivers medical services at one location or
more, using physicians directly employed by the organiza
tion. The second kind, known as an “individual practice
association” (ipa), makes contractual arrangements with
doctors in private practice who treat hmo members in their
own offices. The third, the “group” or “network” hmo,
involves contractual arrangements between the hmo and two
group medical practices or more.
Long-term care constitutes the third major area of change
in recent years. Heightened awareness of the “greying” of
America has focused attention on the distinctive needs of
individuals who are disabled, chronically ill, or functionally
impaired. By no means are all of these people elderly.
Nonetheless, the need for long-term care services is strongly
associated with age. Elderly persons, by virtue of their high
risk of disabling conditions, are the primary recipients of
long-term care services, whether formal or informal. In
recent years, both the number and proportion of the popula
tion 65 and older have increased significantly (table 5), a
demographic trend of major proportions that will continue
well into the next century. Within the 1984-95 timeframe
that is the focus of this article, projected growth in the
number of persons 85 and above merits special attention
because of the implications for long-term care, in general,
and for the nursing home sector in particular.
At advanced ages, there is a high risk of chronic disease,
limitations in mobility and ability to perform everyday ac
tivities, and the loss of spouse or other family helpers. The
following tabulation, based on 1977 data,23 reveals the
sharp increase in nursing home use after age 85:
Percent of age group
residing in nursing homes
Men
11 age groups........................
Under 65 years ..................
65 years and over ..............
65 to 74 years ................
75 to 84 years ................
85 and over ....................
Women
.............. 0.4
.............. 0.1
.............. 3.0
.............. 1.3
.............. 4.0
.............. 17.8
Alternative scenarios
0.8
0.1
5.9
1.6
7.6
26.2
Utilization rates that take marital status into account under
score the role of informal social supports in precipitating
institutionalization, on the one hand, or delaying it, on the
other. Elderly people with serious health problems are more
likely to enter a nursing home if they are widowed or single
than if they are married. Further, it appears that substantially
greater use of nursing homes by women than by men is not
simply because of women’s greater longevity, but also re
flects their greater likelihood of becoming widowed.
Traditional health and social service providers have
begun to modify their programs to respond more effectively
to the service needs of the elderly. Many hospitals, for
example, regard the elderly as a market opportunity and are
expanding their home health and community outreach pro
grams accordingly.24 Family service agencies, too, are re
vamping their offerings as clients’ needs change. A broad
range of long-term care initiatives has been launched in
recent years, many with foundation support or on a demon
stration basis. Most of these seek to improve communitybased services, strengthening the network of formal and
Table 5. Growth of the older population, actual and
projected, 1950-95
[In thousands]
A g e g ro u p
All a g e s...................
Under 65 .............
65 years and over.
65-74 years . . .
75-84 years . . .
85 years and
over.................
1950
1960
1970
1980
1984
1990
1995
150,697 179,323 203,302 226,505 236,416 249,657 259,559
138,427 162,763 183,322 200,960 208,431 217,960 225,672
12,270 16,560 19,980 25,545 27,985 31,697 33,887
8,415 10,997 12,447 15,578 16,596 18,035 18,503
6,124
7,727
3,278
4,633
8,793 10,349 11,311
577
929
1,409
2,240
100.0
91.9
8.1
5.6
2.2
100.0
90.8
9.2
6.1
2.6
100.0
90.2
9.8
6.1
3.0
100.0
88.7
11.3
6.9
3.4
.4
.5
.7
1.0
2,596
3,313
4,073
100.0
88.2
11.3
7.0
3.7
100.0
87.3
12.7
7.2
4.1
100.0
86.9
13.1
7.1
4.4
1.1
1.3
1.6
P erc en t d istrib u tio n
All a g e s ...................
Under 65...............
65 years and over.
65-74 years . . .
75-84 years . . .
85 years and
over.................
N o te : 1950-80 are decennial census data; 1984-95 are middle-series estimates and pro
jections as of July 1.
So u r c e : U.S. Bureau of the Census.
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informal care givers whose services permit people with dis
abilities to remain at home. Community-based long-term
care is likely to play a more prominent role in 1995 than it
does today, because of consumer preference and provider
flexibility. However, the potential impact on the nursing
home industry is difficult to assess, for it is unclear to what
extent community-based care complements, rather than sub
stitutes for, institutional care.
The size and structure of the health industry in 1995 will
be shaped by events that are still unfolding. Despite consid
erable uncertainty about the future, a number of relevant
factors can be identified and assessed. This section begins
with a discussion of three such factors: the impact on overall
demand for health services of hmo expansion and changes in
physician reimbursement; prospects for hospital utilization;
and directions in long-term care financing. Qualitative as
sumptions consistent with each of three growth scenarios
(low, base, and high) are presented in exhibit 1. The section
then explains how the growth scenarios were translated into
alternative projections of health industry employment in
1995.
A shift from traditional, fee-for-service medicine to sys
tems of managed care is underway. Indicative of this trend
are the emergence and very rapid growth of such organiza
tions as hmo’s, ipa’s, preferred provider arrangements, and
medicaid “gatekeeping” schemes in which primary-care
physicians control referral to specialists. Systems such as
these limit consumer choice and set guidelines for physi
cians and other practitioners in order to gain greater control
over service utilization— for example, lab tests, x-rays, and
hospital admissions. According to one estimate, patient use
of traditional fee-for-service medicine, an estimated 94 per
cent in 1982, could drop to 70 percent by 1987.25 Depend
ing on the extent to which managed care systems replace
fee-for-service medicine by 1995, practice patterns, estab
lishment size, and staffing in offices of physicians could
change. Furthermore, the shift to managed care may reduce
future demand for hospital care. It is generally agreed that
the fee-for-service method of paying physicians encourages
more hospitalization and greater use of tests and procedures.
Much will depend on future developments in health care
financing, including changes in reimbursement patterns and
regulation of physicians’ fees. Reform of the medicare pay
ment system for physician services lies ahead, with exten
sion of prospective payment to physicians being one of a
number of options under consideration. Each of the three
growth scenarios embodies a different set of assumptions
about the future role of fee-for-service medicine, on the one
hand, and constraints on physician reimbursement, on the
other. (See exhibit 1.)
As noted, hospital utilization is down sharply, according
to such standard measures as admissions, inpatient days,
and average length of stay. Recent reductions in hospital use
29
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
August 1986 •
Trends in Health Services Employment
are attributed to rising hmo enrollments, greater consumer
cost sharing, and stricter utilization review procedures, as
well as to medicare’s prospective payment system. How
ever, whether the decline will continue over the long run is
questionable.26 For one thing, technological progress could
lead to greater— rather than less—hospitalization as medical
possibilities are enhanced.
The aging of the population will put pressure on demand
for hospital care during the next 10 years unless health
status, practice patterns, or both, change a great deal. Hos
pital use is significantly greater for the elderly than for
persons under 65; elderly people are hospitalized more fre
quently and stay there longer. In addition, the rapidly grow
ing population 85 years and above uses twice as many hos
pital days per capita as persons aged 65 to 74 years. One
reason for this is the presence of multiple health problems in
the very old, which produce much longer hospital stays.
Another is a dramatic increase in the number of surgical
procedures performed on elderly patients, as technological
advances continue to make surgery less risky. The growing
importance of outpatient surgery could have a dampening
effect on demand for inpatient hospital care, depending on
future patterns in outpatient surgery on the elderly.
Also contributing to uncertainty about future trends in
hospital use is the issue of length of stay. Recent decreases
have been dramatic, but will they continue? We may be
approaching the limit for shortening the hospital stays of
elderly patients, who account for approximately 40 percent
of all hospital days of care. Among patients under 65, the
proportion in hmo’s— together with hospitalization guide
lines adopted by hmo’s— will play a significant role in fu
ture length-of-stay trends. Because so many factors are at
work, the three growth scenarios reflect widely varying
assumptions about the level and nature of future demand for
hospital care. (See exhibit 1.)
What has been termed the “nursing home dilemma” cen
ters on the conflict between the demographics of population
aging, on the one hand, and the economics of the nursing
home industry, on the other.27 The number of people seek
ing admission to nursing homes can be expected to continue
to rise for a number of reasons, but very rapid growth in the
population over the age of 85 is the key factor. Americans
age 85 or above are projected to number 4.1 million in 1995,
up from 2.6 million in 1984, as table 5 shows. This repre
sents a 57-percent gain, markedly faster growth than that
projected for any other age group.
The prospect of explosive growth in the population need
ing long-term care is widely acknowledged, but future di
rections in financing and service delivery are cloudy. All
payers— Federal, State, and private— are reluctant to
expand benefits or push for significant improvements in
long-term care financing because of concern about “uncon
trollable” costs. Uncertainty about the potential costs of
community-based long-term care programs, together with
concern about increasing expenditures under medicaid and
30
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other public programs that currently finance much institu
tional long-term care, have shifted attention to private sector
initiatives that might relieve fiscal pressures on public pro
grams and, at the same time, improve the elderly’s ability to
finance long-term care. Some of the options that have
emerged in recent years as feasible alternatives for financing
long-term care include private health insurance, health care
Individual Retirement Accounts, life care communities, and
home equity conversion.28
Interest in private long-term care insurance appears to be
mounting.29 This method of financing long-term care is
backed by the American Health Care Association and the
American Association of Retired Persons, among others,
and many States—faced with mounting medicaid expendi
tures for nursing home care— are expressing interest in it.
Private insurance for long-term care has been suggested not
only because of growing fiscal constraints on public pro
gram expenditures, but more basically because private
insurance coverage is currently available for a wide variety
of health care services, but it is generally not available for
long-term care services or for the costs associated with
chronic illnesses such as Alzheimer’s disease. Tremendous
growth would be necessary before private long-term care
insurance covered a substantial portion of nursing home
costs; currently, such insurance pays about 1 percent. How
ever, if significant developments occur in this area it could
dramatically alter the long-term care picture in the future.
Underlying the base case, as exhibit 1 shows, is the as
sumption that demographic pressures will force some reso
lution of the financing, reimbursement, and certificate-ofneed issues that have slowed nursing home growth in recent
years. The low scenario assumes that uncertainty will con
tinue to prevail, discouraging investment and putting a
brake on industry expansion despite very rapid growth in the
elderly population. The high scenario makes relatively opti
mistic assumptions about public and private spending for
institutional long-term care.
Moving from the qualitative assumptions summarized in
exhibit 1 to alternative projections of industry and occupa
tional employment was a procedure that encompassed sev
eral steps. As the first step, data points above and below the
base case level were selected to represent projected output
under high and low scenario conditions. The output projec
tions were then used, first in conjunction with the Bureau’s
input-output model and then with its industry-occupational
matrix, to generate alternative projections of wage and
salary employment by detailed health industry and occupa
tion. The five steps that make up the projections process are
summarized below.
1.
Set alternative levels of projected output for the private
health sector by projecting the ratio of health sector to total private
sector output. The moderate-growth projection (3.5 percent in
1995) was chosen for the base case; data points above (4.0 percent)
and below (3.0 percent) the base case were selected to represent
the high and low scenarios. This determined the total dollar value
of goods and services that would be produced by practitioners and
establishments in the economic growth sectors (doctors’ and den
tists’ offices, hospitals, and medical services, not elsewhere classi
fied) under varying assumptions about health system performance
in 1995.
2. Set alternative levels of projected output for each of the
three economic growth health sectors by varying the distribution of
total health sector output.
3. Derive estimates of projected employment for each of the
detailed economic growth sectors. That is, estimate the number of
wage and salary workers required to produce the projected level of
output established in step 2.
4. Translate projected employment in the economic growth
sectors into industries categorized by Standard Industrial Classifi
cation and adjust these data to include State and local hospitals and
offices of optometrists and exclude veterinary services, so these
data conform to the configuration of the National IndustryOccupational Matrix.30
5. Convert the industry employment data developed in step 4
into projections of occupational employment by applying staffing
patterns consistent with each of the alternative scenarios.
Output and employment
In 1984, services produced by the private health sector
were valued at more than $141 billion in constant dollars, or
3.5 percent of the Nation’s total private sector output that
year. By 1995, under the moderate-growth projections dis
cussed in the November 1985 issue of the Review, output for
the private economy as a whole is expected to reach $5.6
trillion. The health sector’s share is projected to range from
$169 billion to $226 billion.
Table 6. Health sector output and employment under
alternative projection scenarios, 1984 and projected 1995
Year
S e c to rs 1 4 0 -1 4 2
S e c to r 140
S ec to r 141
S ec to r 142
Output (in millions of 1977 dollars)
1984
$141,174
$58,882
$54,927
$27,365
169,311
199,705
225,748
79,782
84,591
90,299
54,927
70,826
81,269
34,602
44,288
54,180
Projected:
1995 Low
1995 Base
1995 High
Average annual rate of change (in percent)
1984-95 Low
1984-95 Base
1984-95 High
1.7
3.2
4.4
2.8
3.3
4.0
0.0
2.3
3.6
2.2
4.5
6.4
Employment (in thousands of wage and salary jobs)
1984
Projected:
1995 Low
1995 Base
1995 High
6,141
1,396
2,994
1,751
6,473
8,049
9,468
1,842
1,972
2,125
2,441
3,253
3,870
2,190
2,824
3,473
Average annual rate of change (in percent)
1984-95 Low
1984-95 Base
1984-95 High
0.5
2.5
4.0
2.5
3.2
3.9
-1 .9
0.8
2.4
2.1
4.4
6.4
Note: Sector 140 — Doctors’ and dentists’ offices (sic 801,802,803, 8041)
Sector 141 — Hospitals (sic 806)
Sector 142 — Medical services, not elsewhere classified (sic 8049, 805, 807, 808,
809, 074)
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Base case. Efforts to constrain spending are expected to
dampen rising demand for health services under the assump
tions of the base case. As table 6 shows, health sector output
is projected to increase at an annual rate of 3.2 percent over
1984-95. This is markedly slower growth than in the past
(compound growth rates): 5.6 percent during 1960-80, 4.9
percent over 1970-84, and 3.9 percent, 1977-84. The base
case assumes no change between 1984 and 1995 in the share
of private sector output generated by the health sector. (See
chart 1.) A departure from historical trends, this assumption
seems plausible in light of intense cost containment pres
sures and excess hospital capacity. Wage and salary em
ployment is projected to grow at an annual rate of 2.5
percent under the assumptions of the base case, less than
half the rate attained during 1970-84. With labor costs
constituting providers’ largest single outlay, efforts to
achieve efficiencies in a cost-conscious climate are bound to
target staff.
Low scenario. The low scenario assumes cost contain
ment measures that alter medical practice patterns; restric
tive reimbursement policies, declining admissions, and
problems in capital formation for hospitals; and deceleration
in the rate of spending for institutional long-term care. Pri
vate health sector output is projected to grow at an annual
rate of 1.7 percent, roughly one-third the rate posted during
1970-84. The output of the health sector is assumed to
decline as a percentage of total private sector output. A
decline in this statistic is unprecedented. Wage and salary
employment in the health sector is projected to grow at an
annual rate of only 0.5 percent over the 1984-95 period
under the low scenario.
High scenario. Output of the private health sector is pro
jected to grow at an annual rate of 4.4 percent under the
high-scenario assumptions, about the rate attained during
the latter half of the 1970’s. From a 1984 level of 3.5
percent of private sector output, health sector output is pro
jected to reach 4.0 percent by 1995, continuing the long
term upward trend, but at a slower rate than in the past.
Compared with the base and low scenarios, the high sce
nario offers a more optimistic picture of prospects for hospi
tal sector expansion. In addition, it assumes exceptionally
rapid growth of the nursing home and home health industries
because of significantly increased spending for long-term
care. (See exhibit 1.) Wage and salary employment is pro
jected to grow at an annual rate of 4.0 percent, slightly less
than the 4.2-percent rate posted during 1977-84.
Projected 1995 employment in the health industry, under
the alternative sets of assumptions summarized in exhibit 1,
varies from 7.3 to 10.5 million wage and salary jobs. In
each alternative, projected growth is slow by historical
standards, as table 1 shows. The projected increase of nearly
1.9 million health industry jobs under the assumptions of the
base case represents an annual growth rate of 2.1 percent
31
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
August 1986 •
Trends in Health Services Employment
during 1984-95, less than half the rate posted for 1972-84.
The high scenario, which generates approximately 3.3 mil
lion new health industry jobs, assumes a rate of growth
roughly equivalent to that attained over the 1977-84 period.
Historical patterns of job growth vary greatly across the
nine health industries, and this variation carries forward
in the projections to 1995. Detailed industry discussions
follow.
Offices o f physicians (sic 801). The annual rate of job
growth in offices of physicians is projected to outpace the
health industry as a whole under all three scenarios, al
though several other sectors are projected to experience
much faster growth. In 1995, wage and salary employment
in this industry is projected to range from 1.2 to nearly 1.5
million jobs, a difference of 20 percent between the low and
high scenarios. Helping to explain the variation is the low
scenario assumption of market penetration by hmo’s and the
shift to managed care, trends which are expected to dampen
demand for medical services. At least partially offsetting
the dampening, however, is rapid expansion of ipa and
network-type hmo’s, which contract with physicians in pri
vate practice to provide medical care to their members.
Essentially unchanged policies regarding reimbursement
for physicians’ services is a key assumption of the high
scenario.
Offices o f dentists (sic 802). Wage and salary employment
in offices of dentists is projected to be roughly the same
under all three 1995 scenarios.
Offices o f osteopaths (sic 803). Osteopathic physicians
are likely to be affected similarly to other physicians by the
assumptions that underlie the alternative scenarios. Employ
ment in this small industry is projected to vary by approxi
mately 26 percent between the low and the high scenarios.
Under the base case, 1995 wage and salary employment is
projected to reach 44,000, rising from a 1984 level of
30,000.
Offices o f other health practitioners (sic 804). Consumer
acceptance of nonphysician providers is so well-established,
and the trend toward alternative delivery systems is so
strong, that continued rapid expansion is assumed under
each scenario, placing offices of other health practitioners in
the ranks of the fastest-growing health industries. Wage and
salary employment is projected to increase at a rate nearly
double that for offices of physicians and osteopaths.
The wide range in projected 1995 employment— a differ
ence of nearly 57 percent between the low and high scenar
ios— is largely explained by different assumptions about
third-party reimbursement. The high scenario assumes more
favorable coverage for the services of nonphysician
providers than is the case today, for example, more liberal
mental health benefits.
32
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Nursing and personal care facilities (sic 805). Second
only to hospitals in employment size, the nursing and per
sonal care sector provided more than 1.1 million wage and
salary jobs in 1984. Projected employment in 1995 ranges
widely from 1.3 to nearly 2.1 million jobs.
Hospitals (sic 806 plus State and local government hospi
tals). From a level of 4.1 million wage and salary jobs in
1984, hospital employment is projected to increase more
slowly than average under the base case. Employment is
projected to decline sharply in the low scenario, dropping to
3.4 million jobs in 1995. The high scenario paints an en
tirely different picture: faster than average growth is pro
jected to create 1 million additional hospital jobs over the
1984-95 period.
The base case assumes a downturn in use of inpatient
services as occupancy rates slide. Offsetting this is an ex
pansion of outpatient services and diversification into nontraditional areas such as home health. The base case also
assumes that hospitals’ ability to restructure to take advan
tage of emerging market opportunities is constrained by
problems in raising capital. Limited access to needed capital
is an even greater constraint in the low scenario. However,
the key assumption of the low scenario is the shift to man
aged care, which produces stringent controls on hospital
utilization by hmo subscribers and others in managed care
systems. These assumptions are outlined in exhibit 1.
Medical and dental laboratories (sic 807). The alternative
scenarios sketched here have a limited effect on projected
employment in this small industry. The volume of labora
tory work ordered by physicians may be affected by changes
in reimbursement levels and guidelines, to the extent that
testing has been implicated as a source of rising health care
costs. However, other factors besides physicians’ ordering
practices determine how much laboratory work is sent to
commercial laboratories for analysis.
Among these are the economics of in-house versus con
tracted clinical laboratory services for hospitals; advances in
medical diagnostics that increase the amount of testing as
new tests are developed; changes in case mix— an increase
in the number of patients with illnesses that require exten
sive laboratory workups, for example; and the availability of
portable analyzers that can be installed in the physician’s
office or clinic. The potential impact of further develop
ments in laboratory automation must also be kept in mind.
Automation of chemistry and hematology, two of the most
labor-intensive functions in the clinical laboratory, is al
ready well-established.31 Microbiology, immunology, and
serology are candidates for widespread automation in the
coming decade. Prospects for even greater diffusion of auto
mated systems help explain the very modest growth pro
jected for this industry under all scenarios.
Outpatient care facilities (sic 808).
This small industry
includes hmo’s, outpatient surgical centers, diagnostic
imaging centers, urgent care centers, alcoholism treatment
centers, community mental health centers, family planning
clinics, and other outpatient facilities. Employment is pro
jected to rise much faster than average under all three sce
narios. Under the base scenario, for example, employment
is projected to increase at an annual rate of 6.7 percent,
more than triple that projected for the health industry as a
whole. Exceptionally rapid growth in the base case reflects
not only the shift to outpatient care, but the success of
providers in this industry sector in capturing much of the
market.
Turning to the high scenario, favorable reimbursement
policies (expanded coverage for mental health and alco
holism treatment, for example) and higher overall levels of
health care spending are expected to contribute to very rapid
projected growth. Employment in this industry might be
higher still under the high scenario, were it not for the
assumption that hospitals will set up a broad range of outpa
tient services— competing effectively in the outpatient mar
ket with freestanding outpatient facilities, on the one hand,
and large group medical practices, on the other.
Health and allied setrices (sic 809). This rapidly growing
industry includes home health agencies and blood banks. It
seems reasonable to assume that home health care— not
blood banking— is responsible for recent recordbreaking
growth in this industry. This assumption is carried forward
in each projection scenario. On the one hand, intense pres
sure on the demand for services provided by home health
agencies is expected to persist because of the aging of the
population, consumer preference, incentives to discharge
hospital patients as soon as possible, and changes in private
insurance and medicare coverage that make home health
more affordable for patients recovering from acute illnesses.
Second, blood banking is ripe for automation. Industry ob
servers anticipate that automated laboratory systems will be
used by the early 1990’s, with likely displacement of blood
bank employees.
The annual rate of employment growth in this industry is
projected to outstrip the rest of the health services industry
under all three scenarios. According to the base case, em
ployment is projected to double during 1984-95, rising
from 151,000 to 315,000 jobs. Increased public and private
spending for home health care is a key assumption of the
base case. The high scenario assumes an increase in out-ofpocket spending for home health services for patients not
eligible for insurance benefits, those with chronic conditions
and long-term care needs, for the most part.
Occupational projections
In the National Industry-Occupational Matrix, occupa
tional employment in the target year is determined by pro
jected industry employment, on the one hand, and projected
staffing patterns, on the other. To project staffing ratios,
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first, 1984 staffing patterns (“industry-occupational ratios”)
for each of the nine matrix health industries were analyzed.
This step included comparing the 1984 data with patterns
from earlier years and other sources, including the Current
Population Survey and the annual American Hospital Asso
ciation survey. Next, projected 1995 ratios were developed,
consistent with the assumptions of the base case about future
trends in health care financing and service delivery. For
example, this involved judgments about the impact of tech
nology, use of contract services and temporary employees,
and trends in professional practice, case mix, and length of
stay.
The procedure was repeated under staffing assumptions
consistent with both the low and high scenarios. For exam
ple, staffing patterns for nursing and personal care facilities
were adjusted to reflect the impact of more private-pay
patients in the high scenario. Facilities serving these patients
would presumably offer more amenities, as well as more
intense therapy, nursing, recreational, and social services.
Some of these assumptions are presented in exhibit 1.
Next, occupational staffing patterns were applied to the
industry totals shown in table 1. This generated three sets of
industry-occupational matrices for each of the nine health
industries, plus industrywide estimates of 1984 and pro
jected 1995 employment for 200 detailed occupations. In
dustrywide estimates for selected health occupations are
shown in table 7.
A wide range of growth prospects appears when projected
growth under each of three alternatives is compared with the
average rate of job growth for the economy as a whole, 1.3
percent a year over the 1984-95 period. For example, em
ployment of health services managers, physicians, physi
cian assistants, and medical assistants is projected to grow
faster than average even in the low alternative. Except for
health services managers, who are dispersed across all nine
health industries, these occupations are concentrated largely
in offices of physicians and osteopathic physicians, indus
tries that are projected to grow considerably faster than the
health services industry as a whole under the low scenario
assumptions. In addition, most of these occupations are
projected to increase as a proportion of industry employ
ment as hmo’s, group medical practices, and other large
establishments increasingly dominate medical practice.
Considerable attention has been paid to new job opportu
nities in ambulatory and outpatient settings including home
health programs, health maintenance organizations, urgent
care centers, wellness and fitness programs, and life care
communities. The alternatives presented here show that in
the case of registered nurses, the hospital will remain the
major source of employment in 1995, despite the emergence
of alternative delivery systems and the expansion of long
term care.
Because recent nursing school graduates are a major
source of supply for the profession,32 nursing education will
confront vastly different challenges depending on the rate of
33
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
August 1986 •
Trends in Health Services Employment
industry growth in the decade ahead. The number of new
jobs for registered nurses varies widely according to the
projection scenario, as table 7 shows. As few as 72,000
additional registered nurse jobs— or as many as 650,000—
might be created in the health services industry between
1984 and 1995, depending on the alternative selected. Be
cause supply and demand are roughly in balance in the base
case, realization of the high scenario could entail such meas
ures as stepped-up recruiting of inactive nurses, wage incen
tives, and expansion of training opportunities for nurses.
Nursing homes would face a formidable recruiting chal
lenge. Conversely, the sluggish job growth depicted by the
low scenario would mean less favorable job prospects in
nursing overall, depending on replacement needs and on
how rapidly nursing school enrollments responded to an
oversupply.
For a number of occupations, the “shrinkage” of the hos
pital industry under the assumptions of the low scenario
would mean an employment decline between 1984 and
1995. Such occupations include licensed practical nurses,
nursing aides, psychiatric aides, clinical laboratory technol
ogists and technicians, e k g technicians, respiratory thera
pists, surgical technicians, social workers, dietitians, di
etetic technicians, pharmacists, and recreational therapists.
Careful tracking of hospital industry trends is advisable for
policy makers and planners concerned with occupations in
this group.33 For if instead of the low scenario, the highscenario assumptions are realized, prospects are for fasterthan-average job growth in many of these occupations. This
would require a totally different response from vocational
and higher education planners, as well as from industry
officials responsible for recruitment and in-service training.
Table 8 depicts projected change in employment for
health workers by broad occupational group. Employment
in most groups at the lower end of the skill ladder is pro
jected to grow more slowly than the industry average under
each of the three alternatives. This continuation of a long
term trend reflects changes in case mix and patterns of
patient care, use of contract and shared service arrange
ments, and widespread application of computers for clini
cal, financial, and administrative purposes.
Conclusions
Although one can imagine other ways that the next decade
may unfold, the three scenarios presented here are represen
tative possibilities. The base scenario assumes that output
and employment growth will be somewhat below historical
levels, in general because of increased emphasis on cost
Table 7. Wage and salary employment in the health services industry, selected occupations, 1984 and three projected 1995
alternatives
A v e ra g e an n u al ra te
O c c u p a tio n
o f c hange,
P ro je c te d 1995 e m p lo y m e n t
A c tu a l 1984
1 9 8 4 -9 5
e m p lo y m e n t
(in p e rce n t)
Low
B ase
H igh
Low
B ase
H igh
All occupations ...........................................................................
7,188,700
7,325,000
9,054,000
10,535,000
0.2
2.1
3.5
Health services managers .....................................................................
Psychologists..........................................................................................
Recreation workers ...............................................................................
Social workers........................................................................................
Chiropractors..........................................................................................
Dentists..................................................................................................
Dietitians and nutritionists ....................................................................
Opticians, dispensing and measuring...................................................
Pharmacists............................................................................................
Podiatrists..............................................................................................
336,204
18,022
14,431
67,187
9,371
69,513
24,458
16,192
35,161
5,741
396,151
19,447
15,614
61,006
10,398
86,114
23,056
21,364
32,741
6,695
482,779
25,060
20,302
82,726
12,433
90,230
30,875
24,984
42,025
8,020
559,382
29,764
25,618
100,819
13,989
92,956
38,306
28,148
48,859
9,200
1.4
0.7
0.7
-0 .9
0.9
2.0
-0 .6
2.6
-0 .7
1.4
3.3
3.0
3.1
1.9
2.6
2.4
2.1
4.0
1.6
3.1
4.7
4.7
5.4
3.8
3.7
2.7
4.2
5.2
3.0
4.4
Physician assistants...............................................................................
Physicians...................................................................................
Registered nurses .................................................................................
Therapists..............................................................................................
Occupational therapists................................................................
Physical therapists .........................................................................
Recreational therapists ..................................................................
Respiratory therapists....................................................................
Speech pathologists and audiologists ...........................................
Ail other therapists .........................................................................
22,077
293,407
1,130,997
142,645
14,911
40,648
11,665
54,892
11,103
9,426
27,408
342,746
1,201,175
144,077
15,698
45,973
10,828
48,639
12,214
10,725
31,852
394,556
1,517,820
214,798
21,326
61,206
14,598
66,311
15,947
14,084
35,961
443,843
1,782,421
240,772
26,680
77,233
18,365
82,224
19,501
16,769
2.0
1.4
0.5
0.1
0.5
1.1
-0 .7
-1 .0
0.9
1.2
3.4
2.7
2.7
3.8
3.3
3.8
2.1
1.7
3.3
3.7
4.5
3.8
4.2
4.9
5.4
6.0
4.2
3.7
5.3
5.4
Dental hygenists ...................................................................................
EKG technicians ...................................................................................
EEG technicians ...................................................................................
Licensed practical nurses.......................................................................
Clinical laboratory technicians and technologists..................................
Dietetic technicians ...............................................................................
Emergency medical technicians............................................................
Medical record technicians....................................................................
Radiologic technologists.........................................................................
Surgical technicians...............................................................................
74,037
17,437
5,878
485,835
210,746
15,819
14,564
29,700
111,026
36,284
92,265
16,319
5,632
441,787
188,746
14,747
12,582
31,128
116,379
35,127
95,843
20,613
7,027
557,143
226,377
19,057
16,122
39,591
138,018
41,474
98,088
23,701
8,046
673,138
257,153
23,112
18,582
46,051
156,873
47,753
2.0
-0 .6
-0 .4
-0 .9
-1 .0
-0 .6
-1 .2
0.4
0.4
-0 .3
2.4
1.5
1.6
1.3
0.7
1.7
0.9
2.6
2.0
1.2
2.6
2.8
2.9
3.0
1.8
3.5
2.2
4.1
3.2
2.5
Dental assistants...................................................................................
Medical assistants.................................................................................
Nursing aides and orderlies ..................................................................
Psychiatric aides ...................................................................................
Dental laboratory technicians................................................................
Physical, corrective therapy assistants.................................................
164,241
121,846
930,366
61,882
38,055
32,766
204,896
176,456
927,744
51,480
44,048
32,196
213,100
200,345
1,202,144
66,122
46,892
41,923
218,368
226,027
1,434,762
76,499
48,525
51,486
2.0
3.4
-0.1
-1 .4
1.3
-0 .2
2.4
4.6
2.4
0.6
1.9
2.3
2.6
5.8
4.0
1.9
2.2
4.2
34
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table 8. Wage and salary employment in the health services industry, by major occupational group, 1984 and three
projected 1995 alternatives
A v era g e an n u a l rate
P ro je c te d 1995 e m p lo y m e n t
A c tu a l 1984
O c c u p a tio n a l g ro u p
o f ch an g e , 1 9 8 4 - 9 5
(in p e rce n t)
e m p lo y m e n t
Low
B ase
H igh
Low
B ase
H igh
Total, all occupations.......................................................................................................................................
7,188,700
7,325,000
9,054,000
10,535,000
0.2
2.1
3.5
Managerial and management related occupations ..................................................................................................
Professional and technical occupations ...................................................................................................................
Administrative support occupations, including clerical ..............................................................................................
Service occupations...................................................................................................................................................
Cleaning and building services ..........................................................................................................................
Food and beverage preparers and services......................................................................................................
Health services and related................................................................................................................................
Personal services...............................................................................................................................................
Protective services .............................................................................................................................................
All other services ...............................................................................................................................................
All other occupations .................................................................................................................................................
397,843
3,032,158
1,227,084
2,242,698
318,959
373,628
1,349,213
32,012
35,680
133,206
288,917
462,883
3,130,002
1,189,649
2,257,703
287,210
351,685
1,426,970
34,619
26,388
130,831
284,763
565,228
3,867,484
1,442,470
2,827,438
358,765
453,453
1,767,566
45,554
33,849
168,251
351,380
654,282
4,511,088
1,642,754
3,319,710
421,984
547,289
2,058,225
54,107
39,344
198,761
407,166
1.4
0.3
-0 .3
0.1
-0 .9
-0 .5
0.5
0.7
-2.1
-0.2
-0.1
3.2
2.2
1.5
2.1
1.1
1.8
2.5
3.3
-0.5
2.1
1.8
4.6
3.7
2.7
3.6
2.6
3.5
3.9
4.9
0.9
3.7
3.2
containment. More explicit assumptions involve some
growth and rapid diffusion of technology, but an emphasis
on that which saves resources, as opposed to resource
intensive high-cost technology. Some tightening of physi
cian reimbursement is assumed, as well as a moderate con
tinuation of the shift from fee-for-service physician care to
h m o care. Hospital occupancy is assumed to continue its
recent downward trend but then to level, with a shift towards
heavier employment of skilled workers relative to clerical,
janitorial, and other workers. The bed supply in nursing
homes is assumed to increase as regulation of that industry
eases. Other assumptions generally involve a moderate con
tinuation of present trends.
Although it lies between the low and high scenarios, the
base case does not represent a midpoint. With respect to
prospects for job growth, the low scenario may be more
extreme on the unfavorable side than the high scenario is on
the favorable side. In any event, the sharply contrasting
futures depicted by the low and high scenarios make it clear
that the outlook is uncertain. The health services industry is
in transition, and it remains to be seen whether organiza
tional forms and approaches that take hold over the coming
decade will entail gradual and moderate changes in employ
ment levels, staffing patterns, and educational require
ments— or abrupt, even disruptive, change. For employers,
educators, and policy makers who seek to plan effectively
for the future, staying abreast of industry developments has
never been more necessary.
□
-FOOTNOTES
1 Warren Greenberg and Richard Mck. Southby, eds., Health Care
Institutions in Flux: Changing Reimbursement Patterns in the 1980’s (Ar
lington,
va .,
Information Resources Press, 1984).
2 Ross H. Arnett, III, Carol S. Cowell, Lawrence M. Davidoff, and
Mark S. Freeland, “Health spending trends in the 1980’s: Adjusting to
financial incentives,” Health Care Financing Review, Spring 1985; Mark
S. Freeland and Carol S. Schendler, “Health spending in the 1980’s:
Integration o f clinical practice patterns with management,” Health Care
Financing Review, Spring 1984.
8
Economic growth sectors 140, 141, and 142 make up the health sector.
Coverage is as follows: sector 140, Doctors’ and dentists’ offices; sector
141, Hospitals; sector 142, Medical services, not elsewhere classified.
The industry composition of each sector, as defined by the 1972 Stand
ard Industrial Classification (sic) is:
Sector 140-Doctors’ and dentists’
offices
3 Those articles, with supplementary tables and a description of the
projection methodology, are reprinted in Employment Projections for
1995: Data and Methods, Bulletin 2253 (Bureau o f Labor Statistics, 1986).
sic 801-Offices of physicians
sic 802-Offices o f dentists
sic 803-Offices of osteopathic
physicians
sic 8041-Offices o f chiropractors
Sector 141-Hospitals
4 Katharine R. Levit, “Personal health care expenditures, by State:
1 9 6 6 -8 2 ,” Health Care Financing Review, Summer 1985; Katharine R.
Levit, Helen Lazenby, Daniel R. Waldo, and Lawrence M. Davidoff,
“National health expenditures, 1984,” Health Care Financing Review, Fall
1985.
sic 806-Hospitals (excludes Federal,
State, and local government
hospitals)
Sector 142-Medical services,
not elsewhere classified
sic 8049-Offices of health
practitioners, not elsewhere
classified
sic 805-Nursing and personal care
facilities
sic 807-Medical and dental
laboratories
sic 808-Outpatient care facilities
sic 809-Health and allied services,
not elsewhere classified
sic 074-Veterinary services
5 Louise B. Russell, Technology in Hospitals: Medical Advances and
their Diffusion (Washington, DC, The Brookings Institution, 1979).
6 Marcia Angell, “Cost containment and the physician,” Journal o f the
American Medical Association, Sept. 6, 1985.
7 Louise B. Russell, “An aging population and the use of medical care,”
Medical Care, June 1981; Dorothy P. Rice and Jacob J. Feldman, “Living
longer in the United States: Demographic changes and health needs o f the
elderly,” Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly!Health and Society, Summer
1983; Beth J. Soldo and Kenneth G. Manton, “Changes in the health status
and service needs o f the oldest old: Current patterns and future trends,”
Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly/Health and Society, Spring 1985.
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
sic 8042, Offices o f optometrists, is not included in the economic growth
health sectors.
35
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
August 1986 •
Trends in Health Services Employment
9 Output includes primary (health care) and some secondary products
and services such as nonmedical testing performed in medical laboratories.
This measure of industry output differs from a measure of commodity
output because of these secondary products.
This measure is gross or somewhat duplicated in that some intermediate
products or services may be counted more that once in the estimate. Or
thodontal appliances sold first by a dental laboratory to a dentist, and
subsequently sold again to the patient, illustrate duplication in the measure
of output.
Historical estimates of output are converted from current year or nominal
dollars to constant dollars and projections of 1995 output are based on
constant 1977 prices.
10Data on employment by sic category, shown in table 4, differ from
those by economic growth sector shown in table 3 as follows:
Table 3:
Excludes State and local government hospitals
Excludes 8042, Offices of optometrists
Includes 074, Veterinary services
Table 4:
Includes State and local government hospitals
Includes 8042, Offices of optometrists
Excludes 074, Veterinary services
Excluded from the data shown in both tables are Federal hospital em
ployees, as well as employees of publicly operated nursing homes, clinics,
and other governmental health care facilities. These data also exclude
self-employed workers.
11 American Hospital Association, Hospital Statistics,
1984 ed.
(Chicago, 1984).
12The number of nursing home users rose from about 300,000 in 1950
to 470,000 by 1960 and over 1,400,000 in 1980. A portion of this increase
represented a substitution among different kinds of health care institutions.
Beginning in the late 1950’s after the introduction of psychotropic drugs,
but predominantly in the late 1960’s and early 1970’s, many mental pa
tients were transferred to nursing homes or board and care homes. The
deinstitutionalization movement reflected prevailing views about the desir
ability of providing care in less restrictive settings, court orders, and cost
savings to the States from placing patients in facilities where the Federal
Government—via medicaid and Supplemental Security Income—would
pay some or all of the cost. Burton David Dunlop, The Growth o f Nursing
Home Care (Lexington Books, Lexington, m a , 1979).
13 William J. Scanlon and Judith Feder, “The long-term care market
place: An overview,” Healthcare Financial Management, January 1984.
14Ibid.
15 National Center for Health Statistics, Trends in Nursing and Related
Care Homes and Hospitals, United States, Selected Years 1969-80 (Wash
ington, U.S. Government Printing Office, 1984).
16 See Economic Trends (Chicago, il , Hospital Research and Educa
tional Trust, 1985).
17 Karen Davis, Gerard F. Anderson, Steven C. Renn, Diane Rowland,
Carl J. Schramm, and Earl Steinberg, “Is Cost Containment Working?”
Health Affairs, Fall 1985.
18 Davis, “Is Cost Containment Working?”
19 Hospital Research and Educational Trust, Economic Trends.
36
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
20 Dean C. Coddington, Lowell E. Palmquist, and William V.
Trollinger, “Strategies for survival in the hospital industry,” Harvard Busi
ness Review, May-June 1985; Robert A. Vraciu, “Hospital strategies for
the eighties: a mid-decade look,” Health Care Management Review, Fall
1985.
21 Bill Jackson and Joyce Jensen, “Home care leads rising trend o f new
services,” Modern Healthcare, December 1984; W. Barry Moore, “ceo ’s
plan to expand home health, outpatient services,” Hospitals , Jan. 1, 1985.
22 National
hm o
Census, June 1985 (Excelsior,
m n,
InterStudy, 1986).
23 Based on the 1977 National Nursing Home Survey conducted by the
National Center for Health Statistics. See Demographic and Socioeco
nomic Aspects of Aging in the United States, Current Population Reports,
Series P-23, No. 138 (U .S. Bureau o f the Census, 1984), p. 83. Until
results o f the 1985 National Nursing Home Survey are released, the 1977
utilization data are the most recent available.
24 Stanley J. Brody and Nancy A. Persily, ed s., Hospitals and the Aged:
m d , Aspen Systems Corporation, 1984).
The New Old Market (Rockville,
25 Environmental Assessment Overview 1984 (Chicago, IL, Hospital
Research and Educational Trust, 1984).
26 Davis, “Is Cost Containment Working?”
27 Martha Farnsworth Riche, “The nursing home dilemma,” American
Demographics, October 1985; U .S. General Accounting Office, Medicaid
and Nursing Home Care: Cost Increases and the Need for Services are
Creating Problems for the States and the Elderly (Washington, 1983).
28 Carol O ’Shaughnessy, Richard Price, and Jeanne Griffith, Financing
and Delivery o f Long-Term Care Services for the Elderly (W ashington, The
Library o f Congress, Congressional Research Service, 1985).
29 Mark Meiners, “The case for long-term care insurance,” Health Af
fairs, Summer 1983.
30 Employment projections for the nine health industry categories o f the
National Industry-Occupational Matrix were derived from economic
growth sectors 140-142 in a two-part procedure.
First, projected employment in sic 074, veterinary services, was re
moved from projected private wage and salary employment in the eco
nomic growth sectors. Next, disaggregation to the nine matrix industries
was accomplished using a time series regression analysis. The results were
reviewed and adjusted according to analytical judgment.
Second, projections o f State and local government hospital employment
were added to the estimate of private hospital employment in sic 806. No
explicit adjustment was made for sic 8042, Offices of optometrists.
31 “Automated microbiology systems,” Journal of Health Care Technol
ogy, Winter 1985.
32 U .S . Department o f Health and Human Services, Report to the Pres
ident and Congress on the Status of Health Personnel in the United States
(Washington, DC, U .S. Government Printing Office, 1986).
33 See, for example, annual payroll data on hospital personnel by de
tailed occupation provided to the Bureau o f Health Professions by the
American Hospital Association. Survey data for 1981-83, are summarized
in Trends in Hospital Personnel, 1981-83, odam Report No. 5 -8 5
(Rockville, m d , U .S. Department o f Health and Human Services, 1985).
Hospital employment under revised
medicare payment schedules
A preliminary study of the employment effects
of medicare payments based on
Diagnosis Related Groups suggests that
cost-cutting responses by hospitals will result
in smaller, more highly skilled staff and
a higher proportion of clerical to health care workers
Eileen Appelbaum and Cherlyn Skromme Granrose
In the face of declining employment in manufacturing, serv
ice sector industries such as health services are expected to
offer expanded employment opportunities in the future.
More than 900,000 jobs have been added in the health
services industry since 1975, making it one of the largest
industries in the U.S. economy. Moreover, the number of
Americans over 65, who make the greatest use of health care
services, is currently approaching 29 million and continues
to grow.
Recently, however, the Federal Government has at
tempted to limit the rise in health care costs by instituting a
prospective payment system based on Diagnosis Related
Groups, or drg’s. Under the former system, reimbursement
for hospital treatment covered by medicare at an acute care
hospital1 was based on the prevailing rates for hospital and
physician care in the locality. Hospitals typically recovered
the full cost of care for each patient.
Under the new system, payment is based on the average
cost of patient care, with hospitals recovering more than the
actual cost in some cases, and less in others. Reimburse
ments are made according to a fee schedule that mandates
Eileen Appelbaum is an associate professor of economics at Temple Uni
versity, Philadelphia. Cherlyn Skromme Granrose is an assistant professor
o f human resource administration at the same university.
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
specific payments for each of 467 Diagnosis Related
Groups. Payment to hospitals for inpatient care is assigned
according to four criteria: a patient’s principal diagnosis or
surgical procedure, whether there is an important secondary
diagnosis, the patient’s age, and whether or not the patient
was alive upon discharge. (An example of a Diagnosis Re
lated Group is drg 122: Circulatory disorders with acute
myocardial infarction; without cardiovascular complica
tions; patient discharged alive.) Each hospital’s payment is
adjusted for local wage levels.
The payment is expected to cover all costs except those
related to staff education and capital expenditures. All direct
medical education costs as well as indirect costs are reim
bursed separately, as are capital expenses. Moreover, serv
ices provided on an outpatient basis or outside an acute care
facility are currently exempted from drg coverage. The drg
schedule is applied to inpatient services rendered to medi
care beneficiaries. Therefore, the importance of medicare as
a source of hospital revenue varies according to the size and
complexity of the medicare caseload. This payment system
provides an incentive to reduce costs within acute care hos
pitals because hospitals receiving medicare payments are
permitted to retain any savings but must also absorb any
expenses exceeding the scheduled payment rates.
37
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
August 1986 •
Hospital Employment Under Revised Medicare Payment Schedules
These attempts to limit the growth of health care costs
have begun to affect employment opportunities in several
important ways, including the number of jobs, hours of
work, skill levels, and mix of occupations. This article is a
preliminary report on the way in which human resource use
in the hospital sector of the health service industry is re
sponding to current efforts to contain expenditures. The
following discussion briefly outlines the economic setting
and related changes affecting hospitals, and then describes
the strategies that have been adopted by certain Philadelphia
hospitals to cope with this environment.
The changing environment
The cost of health care in the United States has risen
steadily over the last few decades, increasing from 4.4 per
cent of gross national product in 1950 to 10 percent in 1984.
Payments to hospitals have been the largest component of
such expenditures, increasing from about 28 percent of the
total in 1950 to just over 40 percent in 1980.2 Payments
from medicare, a Federal program established in 1965 to
meet the costs of hospital care for elderly or disabled
patients, currently amount to 38 percent of all hospital
revenues.3
In an effort to slow the growth of medical costs and hold
down public expenditures for health care, Congress passed
legislation in October 1983 that established a medicare pay
ment system based on drg’s. drg’s were phased in over a
3-year period beginning the following year. Between Janu
ary and August 1984, 70 percent of community hospitals
came under this pricing system.
Uncertain about the eventual effects of drg’s on revenues
and anticipating a need to reduce costs across the board,
hospitals with large medicare caseloads attempted to reduce
admissions of less acutely ill patients and shorten hospital
stays before the new system was implemented. As a result,
the patient census declined sharply at some hospitals, but
then recovered somewhat as hospitals became more familiar
with the system. In addition, as described below, drg’s and
changes in private insurance approaches to health care have
encouraged the establishment of nonhospital treatment facil
ities. Younger or healthier patients may prefer these outpa
tient alternatives.
The effect of these developments on hospital utilization is
reflected in aggregate data. Total admissions, which had
already leveled off in 1982 and 1983 for reasons largely
unrelated to drg’s, fell sharply— by 4 percent— in 1984.
The average length of a hospital stay declined by 2 percent
in 1983 and 5.1 percent in 1984.4 For medicare patients, it
declined by about 20 percent between 1983 and 1984, from
9.6 to 7.4 days.5
Cost containment measures adopted at many facilities
slowed the growth in cost per case. Hospital expenses rose
only 4.6 percent in 1984 compared with 10.2 percent in
1983, despite the fact that inflationary pressures on hospitals
were virtually unchanged.6 Medicare payments to hospitals
38
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
increased 9 percent in the fiscal year ending June 1985
compared to an average of 19 percent in each of the 3
preceding fiscal years.7
Labor costs are the single largest budget item for hospi
tals, constituting over one-half of operating expenses in
most instances.8 Many of the cost-cutting strategies which
hospitals have adopted are intended to effect savings in this
area through reductions in employment or changes in staff
ing patterns. Thus, despite continued growth in employment
in the health service sector, hospital employment turned
down for the first time in 1984, with all of the decline
occurring in general medical and surgical hospitals.9 These
are precisely the institutions which are subject to drg’s.
While the effects of drg’s on total hospital employment
are reasonably clear, their effect on the mix of occupations
and skills is uncertain. There are many possible strategies
that hospitals might adopt to adjust to these cost containment
measures, each with somewhat different implications for
trends in health care employment. Our study focused on the
strategies adopted by a number of hospitals located in
Philadelphia and explored their human resource implica
tions.
Data for this study were collected in three stages. First, a
short, structured questionnaire was distributed to all admin
istrators attending a meeting of the Philadelphia Hospital
Personnel Society. This questionnaire asked respondents to
classify their hospital’s size, type, and specialization and to
indicate their own administrative position. It also asked
them to indicate for each of a list of occupations whether
full-time, part-time, and contract employment was declin
ing, static, or growing in their hospital. Thirteen completed
responses were obtained at this meeting. Of the hospitals
responding, 10 were private and 3 were public; 10 were
teaching institutions and 3 were community hospitals. They
ranged in size from 82 to 600 beds with an average size of
257 beds. All of the hospitals were nonprofit.
The second stage of data collection consisted of a series
of 1V2- to 2-hour personal interviews of seven of the hospi
tal administrators who filled out the initial questionnaire.
These interviews, conducted in August and September of
1985, focused on the general employment strategy of the
hospital, any changes in strategy in response to drg’s, and
the rationale behind adoption of these policies and practices.
We also requested more precise estimates of the number or
proportion of employees in each employment category
added, deleted, or transferred since the implementation of
drg’s . Hospitals selected for interviews were chosen to pro
vide as much variation as possible. However, no attempt
was made to obtain a representative sample and caution
should be exercised in generalizing from these results.
A third aspect of data gathering consisted of using
archival data to identify the broader changes in patient cen
sus and employment in all Philadelphia area hospitals. This
enabled us to place the responses of interviewees into a more
general context.
Effects of
d r g ’s
uneven
Just as their counterparts elsewhere, Philadelphia area
hospitals began preparing for the implementation of drg’s
even before the authorizing legislation had been passed. In
the view of some of the hospital administrators interviewed,
the initial response at many institutions was an overreaction
to the prospect of a fixed fee schedule. With 2 years of
experience since passage of the legislation, the administra
tors believed that reactions had moderated, although the
extent and difficulty of required adjustment varied widely
among hospitals.
An overview of pertinent hospital operations in the
Philadelphia area can provide useful perspective for inter
preting these and other responses to our study. Admissions
for the 90 Philadelphia area hospitals (including those in the
New Jersey suburbs) declined nominally from 325,966 in
late 1982 to 325,733 in late 1983, then rose to 326,943 by
1984.10 Philadelphia’s experience in this respect differs
sharply from that of the Nation as a whole, which experi
enced an unprecedented decline in admissions in 1984. Rea
sons for this difference include the relatively high propor
tion of elderly people in the Philadelphia area, the
substantial number of referrals from outside the area to
major medical centers in Philadelphia, and the belowaverage enrollments of health maintenance organizations
(hmo’s) in the area.
While admissions remained essentially stable in Philadel
phia, hospitals stays were shortened. Length of stay in acute
care hospitals declined steadily from 8.8 days at the end of
1982 to 7.5 days in 1984.11 The combination of stable ad
missions and declining length of stay enabled Philadelphia
hospitals to earn record income while containing costs. Of
the 60 hospitals in Philadelphia and its Pennsylvania sub
urbs, all but three were in the black for the fiscal year ending
June 30, 1985. The five hospitals with the highest net in
come included a children’s hospital, a community hospital,
and three teaching hospitals. Taken together, the 60
Philadelphia hospitals had income exceeding $165 million
on revenue of more than $3 billion.12
While drg’s provide incentives to all hospitals to de
crease length of hospital stay and to compensate for the
decrease in bed occupancy rates by increasing the volume of
admissions, the effects are very uneven across institutions.
The employment impact depends, in part, on the extent to
which the hospital is affected by drg’s and the size of the
hospital’s medicare caseload, drg’s currently do not apply
to specialty hospitals, which do not provide acute care.
These include psychiatric institutions, drug and alcohol
treatment centers, and physical rehabilitation facilities.
Children’s hospitals are also waivered under present regula
tions. Cost containment pressures thus are far less severe in
these institutions than in acute care hospitals. Nevertheless,
specialty hospitals are responding to a number of pressures
for change. These include the expectation that coverage by
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
drg’s will eventually be extended to them, incentives from
private health insurers to reduce costs, greater acceptance by
patients of less expensive outpatient care, and increased
competition from freestanding, specialized facilities estab
lished by acute care hospitals to avoid drg coverage.
One speciality hospital we examined had initiated a study
of how it should respond to the impact of drg’s. A s a result
of what it had learned by the time of the interview, this
hospital had taken steps to become an outpatient surgery
facility. It had arranged for an acute care hospital to take its
more seriously ill patients and had already converted an
entire inpatient floor to day surgery. Because of these meas
ures and the increasingly competitive environment in which
the hospital operates, the inpatient census at this facility was
at 40-percent occupancy in 1985, compared with 56 percent
a year earlier. However, the outpatient service increased
over the same period: outpatient visits increased 8.4 percent
between fiscal years 1984 and 1985 while outpatient surgi
cal procedures increased 19.7 percent over the same period.
In this hospital, the effect on employment levels had been
minimal, although employees had been shifted from inpa
tient to outpatient care. The nursing staff remained stable
between 1983 and 1985, with 82 registered nurses (of whom
76 work full time), 14 nurse’s aides, and no licensed practi
cal nurses. The number of ward clerks in patient care units
decreased from 16 to 12 over that period. However, total
clerical employment also remained stable at about 41, be
cause three positions for coder-abstracters (currently filled
by temporary workers) have been added in the medical
records department. The number of people employed as
medical technicians, secretaries, and administrators re
mained unchanged.
The hospital anticipated reduced labor requirements in
areas such as dietary, housekeeping, and maintenance serv
ices as the shift from inpatient to outpatient care proceeds,
but this had not occurred at the time of the interview. Em
ployment in the service unit, which numbered about 125 in
1983, had been reduced by two full-time-equivalent posi
tions, and there had been a moderate shift toward more
part-time staff in this area. The only employment growth
anticipated by this hospital was in the medical records de
partment, which at the time was burdened by the increase in
the number of people seen as outpatients. A systems analyst
position was expected to be added and two or three clerical
positions were to be made permanent when an evaluation of
medical records operations was completed.
Separate reimbursement for medical education expenses
under the drg payment system has had differential effects
on the revenues of teaching and nonteaching hospitals. Pay
ments for direct education costs are based on actual cost,
while those for indirect costs depend on the size of house
staff, the number of beds, and the total payment from medi
care. It has been estimated that adjustments for indirect
teaching costs increase the payments to teaching hospitals
with one or more interns or residents for every four beds by
39
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
August 1986 •
Hospital Employment Under Revised Medicare Payment Schedules
an average of 53 percent, while combined adjustments for
direct and indirect medical education costs approximately
double the reimbursement to a teaching hospital compared
with the drg payment per case to a nonteaching hospital.13 In
part, these increased payments are intended by medicare to
compensate teaching hospitals for the greater severity of the
illnesses they treat and for the free care they provide to
patients with no medical coverage, although other hospitals
with acutely ill patients or which provide free medical serv
ices receive no such compensation. The result of this payment
system has been to encourage teaching hospitals to catego
rize expenditures as direct educational costs whenever pos
sible and to shield their revenues from the effects of drg’s.
The administrator of one very large teaching hospital
stated that drg’s were having negligible effects on admis
sions, length of stay, and occupancy. This hospital’s 1984
occupancy rate exceeded 79 percent, compared with an av
erage of 73.4 percent for other medical school hospitals and
69.3 percent for other acute care hospitals in the region.14
Not surprisingly, drg’s had not affected employment levels
at this hospital at the time of our study and were viewed by
the respondent as only one among many factors affecting
decisions about human resource use. However, a second
medical school hospital administrator stated that his institu
tion was already initiating changes to increase volume of
admissions and reduce length of stay in anticipation of cut
backs in medicare payments for educational costs. (At the
time of our interview, the Advisory Council on Medicare
had already proposed to Congress that these payments be
terminated by 1987.)
In general, the hospitals with revenues most adversely
affected by the drg payment system were acute care com
munity hospitals, especially those serving an elderly or poor
population. The reasons for this are implicit in the type of
diagnosis-based, per-case reimbursement system which
medicare has adopted. The drg system uses limited infor
mation in assigning a patient to one of its 467 categories. In
particular, it largely ignores the severity of the illness in
making an assignment and it ignores socioeconomic charac
teristics of the patient that may affect the number of compli
cations and thus the cost of treatment. In addition, no al
lowance is made under drg’s for free medical care provided
to those unable to pay for services.
A study conducted at Johns Hopkins found that teaching
status of a hospital did not necessarily predict the severity of
illness of its patient population. Some nonteaching commu
nity hospitals have severe case mixes despite their low
resident-to-bed ratio. These hospitals receive little reim
bursement from medicare for educational costs to offset
their higher than average treatment costs.15 The greatest
pressures for cost containment, and the greatest challenges
to hospitals that want to maintain the quality of, and access
to, their services, occur in this category.
The hospital in which we observed the greatest effect of
drg’s was a community hospital that had responded to what
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it termed “the Federal mandate for quality health care” in the
1960’s and 1970’s by gearing up to provide care for the poor
and the aged. At the time of the study, 60 percent of its
patients were on medicare. The hospital had responded to
the medicare revenue cuts that accompanied the implemen
tation of drg’s with a concerted cost containment effort.
Most obvious was the reduction in average length of patient
stay from 10 days to 7.2 days between 1983 and 1985. In
contrast, the average length of stay at acute care hospitals in
the Philadelphia area had fallen from 8.8 days to 7.5 days
over the same period.16 In this hospital’s view, the longer
average length of stay for its patients in 1983 was due to the
fact that recovery takes longer when the patient population
is older and poorer, not to inefficiencies in the hospital’s
operations. This contrasts with medicare’s underlying as
sumption that all cost differences in treating patients in the
same Diagnosis Related Group result from differences in
efficiency among hospitals. Under extreme pressure to re
duce costs, this hospital had brought its average length of
stay in line with the Philadelphia average. As a result, the
hospital’s patient census had declined more than 15 percent
since 1983, yielding its 1985 occupancy rate of 62 percent.
Anticipating the im plementation o f d r g ’ s , in 1983 this
hospital obtained a 2-year grant to study the effects of
d r g ’ s on the lives o f the elderly. Preliminary results sug
gested that while there had been no increase in medical
risk, more than 54 percent of the 200 patients interview
ed in the first year indicated a fear that they were return
ing home too early in their recovery. The hospital was
concerned about the social and psychological stress to
which these elderly patients are being exposed, the ade
quacy of care available to elderly people living alone, and
the stress placed on relatives asked to care for these patients.
Strategies for coping with
d r g ’s
Strategies to adjust to the changing financial environment
can be divided into three categories— strategies for “beating
the system,” marketing strategies, and human resource
strategies. Strategies in the first two categories also have
consequences for human resource use, even though these
practices are not adopted specifically as human resource
strategies.
“Beating the system.” The uneven effects of drg’s on
hospitals and the complex economic incentives the payment
system provides have led hospitals to adopt a variety of
strategies for maximizing income under the new rules.
These include such obvious tactics as identifying combina
tions of patient diagnoses that maximize payments and
choosing the principal diagnosis or procedure carefully to
achieve the same end. These practices were aggressively
pursued at all of the hospitals we observed. Training was
provided for personnel ranging from doctors to medical
records clerks in assigning diagnoses to the drg category
that yields the most revenue for the hospital. This practice
may have contributed to the increase in recent years in the
case mix index— a national measure of the severity of pa
tient illnesses— which is rising much more rapidly than ex
pected,17 although acuity levels at hospitals are increasing as
less ill patients are treated at outpatient, rehabilitation, or
other facilities. In addition, separate payments by medicare
for capital expenses favor the use of capital intensive tech
niques. They also encourage hospitals to experiment with
equipment leasing and innovative accounting procedures to
qualify for reimbursement for capital expenditures.
Partly as a result of the favored status afforded capital
intensive techniques under drg’s, some hospitals have con
tinued to add employees in high technology specialties.
Four of the hospitals at which we interviewed cited recent or
anticipated employment growth in radiology, ultrasound,
magnetic resonance, CAT-scan, nuclear medicine, and nu
clear studies in cardiology. Between 5 and 10 technician or
technologist positions had been added at these hospitals in
1984 and similar employment growth was anticipated for
1985. Competition for individuals highly credentialed in
these areas is keen, and some hospitals had had to offer
higher starting wages in order to recruit such workers, and
to renegotiate contracts in order to retain them. One hospital
reported retraining existing personnel to fill some of these
positions.
Employment growth in technical specialties was far out
paced by the number of new clerical and administrative
positions added in medical records, billing, and related de
partments in response to drg’s. All of the hospitals we
observed had increased employment in these areas. Admin
istering drg’s to yield the highest payment for each patient
had caused one hospital at which there were substantial
cutbacks in patient care personnel to increase the numbers of
medical record administrators, technicians, and clerks; to
add three programmers; and to employ an additional admit
ting officer, financial analyst, manager of financial plan
ning, and several accountants. Another hospital which had
reduced the number of licensed practical nurses and nurse’s
aides by more than 30 positions between 1983 and 1985
reported large employment increases in billing, data proc
essing, medical records, and utilization review over the
same period. The billing department alone had grown from
40 to 60 people, while the number of coders in medical
records rose from 17 to 25. The hospital also reported hav
ing retrained clerical employees to choose the best diagnosis
financially while conforming to regulations.
ing for patients through direct marketing and advertising
activities. The hospitals we visited were making increased
use of marketing consultants, and some institutions had
hired or were planning to hire marketing directors.
Hospitals are also courting physicians. Four of the acute
care hospitals we studied reported that they were increasing
the number of attending physicians. Some were encouraging
attending doctors to form health maintenance organizations.
More often, hospitals today are encouraging doctors to form
professional associations to provide specialized services
such as radiology within the hospital on a private, for-profit
contract basis. This practice appeared to be widespread in
the two teaching hospitals we observed, extending beyond
medical imaging and anaesthesiology to include such un
likely specialties as dermatology. Other hospitals had also
developed such subcontract arrangements or were dis
cussing them for medical specialties as diverse as biomedi
cal services, urology, and the short procedures unit, in
which outpatient surgery is conducted. In return, the hospi
tals expected doctors with whom they have such arrange
ments to admit more patients.
To escape the constraints of drg’s, and in response to
private health insurance incentives for avoiding inpatient
care as well, hospitals are increasing the provision of serv
ices not covered by these regulations. The most common
strategy is to enlarge the short procedures unit and to shift
from inpatient to outpatient services. In some of our study
cases, entire floors or units had been shut down and the
personnel reassigned or released. Some of these hospitals
were establishing new, independent units to provide psychi
atric, physical rehabilitation, or drug and alcohol treatment
outside the acute care facility. Such units are exempted from
drg coverage. Home health care is another new service with
which hospitals were experimenting.
Another strategy used by hospitals to increase revenues is
to attract specific types of patients who will make relatively
less use of the hospitals’ resources than other patients within
the same drg. A recent study confirms the fact that patients
with the same diagnosis may be more or less acutely ill. In
a related study comparing reimbursement rates with the
actual extent or severity of illness, researchers found both
substantial overpayments and underpayments. Some institu
tions received payments that were as much as 59 percent too
high and others received 25 percent too little in relation to
the burden of illness and the actual costs of treating their
patients.18
Marketing strategies. Marketing strategies at the hospitals
where we interviewed were two-pronged. The hospitals had
made significant efforts to increase admissions. They had
also developed marketing strategies that focused on proce
dures, populations, and services for which drg limits are
less constraining.
To increase admissions, and to target the populations they
wish to admit, hospitals throughout the country are compet
Hospitals prefer patients who are younger or are in so
ciodemographic groups that are likely to have fewer compli
cations and shorter hospital stays. They also prefer patients
with private insurance coverage which does not rely on
DRG-type reimbursement policies. In addition, hospitals
have identified those diseases which are profitable for them
under the drg system, and they seek to increase admissions
of patients with these ailments. Treating the right type of
patient increases the “contribution margin” to the hospital,
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MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
August 1986 •
Hospital Employment Under Revised Medicare Payment Schedules
raising the difference between what hospitals are paid for
treating the patient and the actual variable cost of the care.
A leading management consulting firm has prepared what it
labels “a survival guide for the hospital industry,” in which
hospitals are advised that they must determine their
“winners” and “losers”— that is, those drg’s that are most
and least profitable; identify the types of patients that pro
vide the greatest contribution margin and target them; and
decide which physicians should be encouraged to use hospi
tal resources.19
For persons concerned about the wide availability of qual
ity health care, the benefits of marketing strategies are not
always clear. One hospital administrator cited unproductive
competition with suburban hospitals for attending physi
cians and patient admissions in categories where costs are
below average. A respondent at a rehabilitation hospital
pointed to a shift in workers and other resources from an
older facility in a lower income, black community to a
newer center in a middle income, white neighborhood.
While the hospitals at which we interviewed, especially the
community hospitals, expressed a continuing commitment
to providing medical care to those who need it, the practice
of using marketing strategies to attract a preferred patient
population raises troubling questions about access for per
sons requiring hospital stays that exceed the average or for
those who lack medical insurance coverage.
All of these marketing strategies have implications for
human resource use. This was most evident at a speciality
hospital we observed where a new administration decided
last January to take steps to run the hospital more like a
business. In addition to 13 positions, including 10 office and
clerical jobs that had already been added in 1984, 35 new
positions were approved for 1985. The new positions in
cluded a director of development, an insurance liaison per
son, an admissions liaison person, and a coordinator to
test-market potential products.
In general, we found that the medical records department
had grown at each of the hospitals we visited. Greater use
of outpatient facilities and short procedures units has in
creased the number of patient visits, and hence the number
of bills that must be sent to patients. At one medium-sized
hospital, not only had there been a shift from inpatient to
outpatient care but the hospital’s general practice depart
ment had become part of a health maintenance organization.
The resulting increase in billing requirements had led to a
marked increase in employment in the billing department.
The establishment of freestanding units to provide spe
cialized treatment outside the hospital and the subcontract
ing of hospital services to professional associations of doc
tors had affected the number of workers officially counted
on hospital payrolls, although the effect on actual employ
ment was less clear. Doctors in these situations negotiated
with hospitals over the sharing of expenses and over whether
the staff in their facilities would be employees of the doctors
or of the hospital. We found that where hospitals were not
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unionized, workers were often considered employees of the
doctors. The hospital would prepare the payroll and send out
paychecks, but the workers were not carried on the hospi
tal’s employment rolls.
Labor force strategies. Responding to drg’s through the
use of human resource strategies, Philadelphia hospitals
were attempting to reduce labor costs while avoiding wide
spread layoffs. Layoffs had occurred at some hospitals, but
most of the reported reductions in staff at the hospitals we
visited had been accomplished through attrition and incen
tives for early retirement. One hospital, adjusting to a de
cline in its occupancy rate of 20 percentage points as a result
of a reduction in average length of stay from 10 to 7 days,
had found it necessary to reduce its staff by 111 positions.
First, retirement incentives were made available at all verti
cal levels of the employment structure, although the hospital
found that this option appealed mainly to less skilled, lower
paid workers. As a result, 31 people retired early. The
second stage of the reduction was accomplished by laying
off workers over a 5-month period in 1985. Such workers
were given preemptive rights to return— that is, they were
hired back as others left voluntarily and jobs for which they
were qualified opened up. By the end of 1985, only 9 people
remained on the layoff list, the rest having been rehired in
the course of normal turnover.
While only two hospitals had found it necessary to lay
workers off, all of the hospital administrators interviewed
reported having used attrition to achieve targeted reductions
in staff. Selective cutbacks through attrition had been ac
complished at every employment level including adminis
tration, although most reductions had occurred among less
skilled nursing staff. If targets were not met by the end of
the fiscal year (June 1986), some hospitals anticipated using
layoffs to reach employment goals.
Attrition is a viable strategy for hospitals because of the
high turnover that characterizes many of them. One large
hospital we visited, with approximately 3,200 employees,
reported turnover of about 17 percent in fiscal 1984 and 23
percent in fiscal 1985. This occasioned the hiring of about
950 new workers in 1984, and about 750 in 1985. Thus,
there had been extensive hiring at this hospital despite a
reduction in staff of more than 100 positions during fiscal
1985. Several medium-sized hospitals reported reductions
in staff through attrition of up to 100 positions over the
preceding 2 fiscal years.
Despite the use of retirement incentives, attrition, and
occasional layoffs, hospitals were not planning across-theboard reductions in staff. Most of the hospitals we visited
had conducted detailed studies of staffing needs and had set
employment targets for each department, including in
creases in some areas and reductions in others. This had
involved considerable shifting of employees among depart
ments. The closing of entire inpatient nursing floors and the
scaling down of some programs at the hospitals had been
accompanied by expansion of short procedures units and
other outpatient facilities.
Nurses and ward clerks had been shifted from inpatient to
outpatient care. One hospital reported that about 70 percent
of those displaced from inpatient care had been reabsorbed
in this way. Another hospital had found that shifting nurses
from the nursing floor to day surgery required a new
orientation and specialized training; staff nurses had been
given the option of getting the training in order to retain their
jobs. The most unusual reassignment we observed occurred
at a hospital where requirements for less skilled nurses were
declining while the need for clerical workers was increas
ing. The administration had given licensed practical nurses
the option of shifting to clerical work. Several nurses had
taken advantage of the offer and had made the change quite
successfully.
Engineering and maintenance requirements remained vir
tually unchanged as hospitals adjusted to drg’s, and house
keeping services experienced about a 10-percent decline in
employment. However, several hospitals reported that they
had not filled all of the positions in these departments lost
through attrition.
Only food service requirements had consistently and
markedly declined as a result of the decline in inpatient
census and the increase in outpatient services. One hospital
reported making shifts in the assignment of nonunion em
ployees in this area, but not for those who were unionized.
Hospitals are also adopting a variety of human resource
strategies that increase their flexibility in using their em
ployees. One notable development, emphasized by all but
one of the hospitals we observed, is increased reliance on
registered nurses, especially those with Bachelor of Science
in Nursing degrees, and reduced employment of nurse’s
aides and licensed practical nurses. Reducing the length of
hospital stays during the recuperative period means that
patients who are in hospitals are more acutely ill, with the
result that more skilled nursing care is required.
Most of the hospital administrators we interviewed be
lieved that it is inefficient to continue to use licensed practi
cal nurses and nurse’s aides, who are limited in the tasks
they can perform. One hospital had already eliminated all
licensed practical nurses. Only one community hospital ad
ministrator, sorely pressed by drg’s, took the position that
registered nurses should be used to provide professional
nursing services only, while auxiliary services should be
provided by lower paid licensed practical nurses and aides.
The result is that many of the hospitals we visited were
maintaining employment levels for registered nurses and
grauduate nurses (and some were even recruiting in this
area) because such nurses can provide the entire range of
nursing services. At the same time, there had been cutbacks
in the less skilled nursing positions. One hospital reported
having laid off 17 workers in July 1984 and the same num
ber the following October. Most of those laid off were
nurse’s aides. Cutbacks at other hospitals had been less
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extreme, but several reported no new hiring of aides or
licensed practical nurses within the last 6 months of the
interview, and no future plans to hire them.
Some hospitals reported having instituted, or considered
establishing, internal labor pools to increase flexibility in
assigning workers to departments where they are needed.
Such a strategy usually is intended to avoid layoffs and
increased use of part-time workers. The underlying premise,
viewed as still unproven by most of the administrators we
interviewed, is that one department is busy while another
has down time. The argument is that down time can be
reduced and productivity increased by assigning people of
like educational attainment to a labor pool, rather than to a
department, and cross training them to do a variety of jobs.
Workers can then be assigned from the pool to a department
as needed. Several hospitals had begun (or were consider
ing) using a labor pool to staff less skilled jobs in house
keeping, grounds, maintenance, food service, and transport.
A few hospitals were coping with fluctuations in admis
sions and swings in patient census by establishing nursing
pools. Nurses who do not want, cannot find, or are not
needed by the hospital for full-time employment are carried
on the rolls of the hospital’s nursing pool and called in to
work by the day. One medium-sized hospital with 155 reg
istered nurses and graduate nurses on the floor, another 15
in education, administration and supervision, and about 25
licensed practical nurses and 35 aides, had a nursing pool of
about 80, of whom no more than 30 were actively contacted
by the hospital on an average day. The people in this pool
were not reported as hospital employees in employment
statistics kept by the institution. They were paid a straight
wage for the days they worked and received no fringe ben
efits. They became eligible for a pension if they worked
more than 1,000 hours in any year, so the hospital attempted
to keep their employment under this level.
Another hospital, unable to fully employ all of its nurses
in the face of the decline in its patient census, operated a
different type of nursing pool in which everyone is a hospital
employee and is guaranteed work every day but not neces
sarily at the hospital. The hospital operated the nursing pool
as a temporary help service, sending the nurses it did not
require on any given day out to nursing homes or other
facilities, as needed. This pool had, in fact, become a “profit
center” for the hospital.
Several hospitals had small clerical pools as well. At one,
a pool of five clerical workers was treated as belonging to
the employee relations department. These workers, who
were viewed as permanent employees of the hospital, were
called in as needed and charged to whatever department
used them. The hospital treated them as part-time workers.
Several alternative strategies for reducing labor costs
which we expected to find were notable by their absence.
In general, the hospitals we observed had made only limited
use of part-time employment to increase flexibility in
work assignments. Perhaps 10 percent of employees at these
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MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
August 1986 •
Hospital Employment Under Revised Medicare Payment Schedules
hospitals work part time, usually in food service and in
weekend nursing services. One hospital had gone from two
full-time shifts in food service to one full-time and one
part-time shift. Other hospitals reported that about a third of
their food service workers were part time.
Weekend nursing services have traditionally employed
part time registered nurses, licensed practical nurses, and
aides who wanted those hours. Today, fewer patients re
main in the hospital on weekends. But hospitals are provid
ing additional outpatient services on weekends and evenings
in order to meet increased competition from freestanding
facilities. One hospital we visited had begun providing
physical therapy and respiratory therapy at those hours.
In recent years, hospitals have also begun making parttime work available to physical therapists, who are currently
in short supply, in order to make the jobs attractive. Appar
ently, a substantial number of physical therapists do not
want full-time work and are able, in the current market, to
command the hours they desire. The net effect of this trend
on part-time employment among the hospitals we visited
had been small.
None of the seven hospitals we observed had increased
the responsibilities of lower paid workers in order to econo
mize on the use of more highly skilled and higher paid staff.
On the contrary, they sought to hire the most highly credentialed workers available. This was especially evident in
nursing, where the proportion of registered nurses was in
creasing and the nurses were being asked to perform the
entire spectrum of nursing services, but it applied to techni
cians and therapists as well. Hospital administrators re
ported that greater cost savings are realized as a result of the
flexibility provided by a smaller staff of highly skilled work
ers than through an increase in the proportion and responsi
bilities of lower paid workers.
Hospitals do make use of temporary workers, mainly in
nursing services and, to a lesser extent, in clerical work. But
the hospitals we observed made only occasional use of tem
porary help service agencies. Instead, they preferred to con
tract with individuals for these services, forming their own
internal pools of temporary workers. Often, the workers in
these pools previously held full-time positions at the hospi
tals, but for personal reasons came to prefer fewer hours.
Other workers in the pools may desire full-time jobs at a
particular hospital and view the pool as a way of getting
preferential treatment should an opening arise. Sometimes
the pool was established as an alternative to laying off work
ers entirely.
In general, the hospitals in our survey did very little
contracting out of services. None of the hospitals we visited
contracted out services such as food service, housekeeping,
groundskeeping, or maintenance. One hospital was con
tracting out electrical services at the time of the interview
but planned to hire its own electrician shortly. Another
hospital was contracting out food service in the employee
and visitor cafeterias, but not its inpatient food service. The
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hospital administrators we interviewed rejected the use of
temporary help agencies or of contract services because they
believed there are hidden or long-run costs associated with
the use of workers who are not their own employees. Be
cause pay at these hospitals rose during the 1970’s, the
administrators no longer viewed their institutions as em
ployers of last resort. Quality of employees at every level
was higher by the mid 1980’s than it had been 10 or 15 years
earlier, and respondent hospitals thus were reluctant to sur
render control over this employment to outside agencies.
Implications for employment outlook
According to our study, implementation of a prospective
payment system by medicare had an immediate effect on
employment in acute care community hospitals most di
rectly affected by drg’s. Cutbacks in employment in these
facilities have largely been in patient care occupations. They
are associated with the reduction in length of hospital stay
and with the incentives for cost containment implicit in a
system which allows hospitals to retain the difference be
tween scheduled prospective payments and the actual costs
of providing health care services.
Employment growth was centered in occupations associ
ated with hospital efforts to prosper under drg’s by increas
ing admissions, targeting a preferred patient population,
coding patient diagnoses so they are most financially remu
nerative, increasing the use of capital intensive procedures
for which payment is more easily obtained, and establishing
or expanding treatment facilities and services that are not yet
covered by the payment system. In our interviews, we ob
served only small changes in employment in the specialty
and teaching hospitals, which are less severely constrained
by drg regulations. However, all but one of these hospitals
were expecting that future regulatory changes would di
rectly affect them. They reported that they were exploring
the use of (and, in one instance, were actively utilizing) the
marketing and human resource strategies that acute care
community hospitals had adopted during the 2 years preced
ing our study.
In direct patient care occupations, the overall employ
ment of registered nurses and graduate nurses was stable,
although there had been a definite shift in location of a
substantial proportion of these jobs to short procedures
units, outpatient services, offsite specialty units, or free
standing facilities in more prosperous communities. The
employment of licensed practical nurses and nurse’s aides
was declining, while a few specific technical specialties
benefiting from drg regulations were experiencing small
increases. Physical therapists, who benefit from the exemp
tion from drg coverage of rehabilitation facilities, were also
facing a high demand for their services.
In support service occupations, those concerned with the
maintenance of physical facilities had experienced stable
employment, though hiring was limited to replacement only
and was sometimes sluggish. Support service occupations
that depend on the hospital’s inpatient census, such as food
service, housekeeping, and patient transport, were declin
ing. Food service occupations were the hardest hit, and
some workers in this area who did retain their jobs had had
their hours reduced.
The largest increases had occurred in administrative and
administrative support occupations. We observed small in
creases in positions for upper level administrators with skills
in marketing, product development, finance, and d r g ad
ministration. These had been filled through outside hiring.
Larger increases were reported in clerical occupations in
billing and medical records, especially in occupations re
lated to d r g reporting requirements. These positions had
sometimes been filled through outside hiring. Often, how
ever, they had been staffed through transfers within the
hospital from departments experiencing cutbacks.
Our limited data suggest that the major impact of the
decline in hospital employment is being felt in the less
skilled, traditionally female occupations such as licensed
practical nurses, nurse’s aides, and food service workers. A
case study of hospitals such as this does not provide infor
mation on whether workers displaced from hospital employ
ment are finding jobs in nursing homes, home health serv
ices, or other health service facilities. Even if this is the
case, however, displaced workers are unlikely to find jobs
that pay as well or provide as many hours of work as those
they previously held. Hospital administrators with contracts
with home health care agencies or who were developing this
service themselves reported that the position of home health
care aide is becoming more skilled than that of a nurse’s aide
in a hospital setting because there is less direct supervision.
Yet the job pays about $3.35 to $5 an hour, about half the
hospital pay scale for nurse’s aides, and the hours, which are
not dependable, may vary from 10 to 40 a week.
Our findings also suggest that while high turnover and the
continued need to fill a few specialized positions precludes
a hiring freeze at hospitals, very little net growth in employ
ment in the hospital component of the health services sector
can be anticipated in the next few years. This is especially
true of acute care institutions. We also noted a shift in the
composition of the nursing staff at hospitals toward graduate
and registered nurses, whose numbers were stable or grow
ing slightly. This appears to be the result of both the thrust
within nursing for professionalization and the desire of hos
pitals to operate with a nursing staff that is smaller overall
but more highly skilled and flexible. The preference for
more highly skilled workers was apparent as well in other
occupations at the hospitals we observed. These hospitals
were continuing to recruit employees with training in spe
cialized technical procedures and those with traditional busi
ness specialties such as marketing and finance.
Our method addresses the proximate effects of d r g ’ s on
hospital employment. However, it does not allow an analy
sis of overall employment effects in health services as full
adjustment to the new payment plan is undertaken. Many
questions remain. These include whether displaced licensed
practical nurses and nurse’s aides are finding alternative
employment in nursing homes and home health care;
whether the stresses on families caring for elderly patients at
home are creating unrecognized increases in the demand for
psychological and social work services; and what the effect
will be on the demand for health services provided outside
of hospital facilities. However, our case study of a small
number of hospitals strongly suggests that d r g ’ s are trigger
ing changes in hospital employment and in the delivery of
medical care that are having major spillover effects else
where in the health services sector and, perhaps, in the
larger economy.
□
1 For purposes o f program administration, an “acute care hospital” is
defined by exception; that is, a facility is considered an acute care hospital
unless it falls within a category specifically excluded from the program by
law, such as an alcohol rehabilitation center. However, the term may be
approximated by the American Hospital Association’s definition of
“community hospitals”: Non-Federal, short-term general and other special
hospitals, excluding hospital units o f institutions, whose facilities and
services are available to the public. See Hospital Statistics, 1985 Edition
(Chicago, American Hospital Association, 1985), p. xi.
Review, December 1982, pp. 8 9-99.
2 R. R. Arons, The New Economics of Health Care: d r g ’ s, Case Mix,
and Length o f Stay (New York, Praeger Publishers, 1984), pp. 4 and 114.
3 “Health Care Costs: The Fever Breaks,” Business Week, Oct. 21, 1985,
pp. 8 6 -9 4 .
4 “ 1984 Hospital Cost and Utilization Trends,” Economic Trends (Hos
pital Research and Educational Trust), Spring 1985.
5 R. Sullivan, “Decline in Hospital Use Tied to New U .S. Policies,” The
New York Times, Apr. 16, 1985, p. At.
6 “ 1984 Hospital Cost.”
7 “Health Care Costs,” p. 86.
8 D. Kidder and D. Sullivan, “Hospital Payroll Costs, Productivity, and
Employment Under Prospective Reimbursement,” Health Care Financing
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9 Employment and Earnings (Bureau o f Labor Statistics), various issues,
table B2.
10 Delaware Valley Hospital Council, d v h c Semi-Annual Utilization
Comparison, for the period July 1 to Dec. 31, 1984.
11Ibid.
12 G. M. Gaul, “Diagnosis for Hospitals: Good Financial Health,” The
Philadelphia Inquirer, Nov. 17, 1985, p.
d i.
13 R. S. Stem and A. M. Epstein, “Institutional Responses to Prospec
tive Payment Based on Diagnosis-Related Groups,” The New England
Journal of Medicine, Mar. 7, 1985, pp. 621-27.
14 Delaware Valley Hospital Council,
dvhc
Semi-Annual Utilization
Comparison.
15 “drg Disbursement,” Medical World News, July 22, 1985, pp. 5 0 51.
16 Delaware Valley Hospital Council,
dvhc
Semi-Annual Utilization
Comparison.
17 Stem and Epstein, “Institutional Responses.”
18 “drg Disbursement,” p. 51.
19 Arthur Young, Prospective Payment Survival Guide.
45
M ajor Agreements
Expiring Next M onth
T h is list o f se le c te d c o lle c tiv e b a rg a in in g a g r e e m e n ts e x p ir in g in S e p te m b e r is b a se d o n in fo r m a tio n c o lle c te d b y th e
B u r e a u ’s O ffic e o f W a g e s an d In d u str ia l R e la tio n s . T h e list in c lu d e s a g r e e m e n ts c o v e r in g 1 ,0 0 0 w o r k e r s o r m o r e .
P r iv a te in d u stry is arra ng ed in o r d er o f S ta n d a rd In d u str ia l C la s s ific a tio n .
In d u s tr y o r a c tiv ity
E m p lo y e r a n d lo c a tio n
L a b o r o r g a n iz a tio n 1
N um b er o f
w ork ers
P r iv a te
Construction
Food products
Textiles . . . .
Paper ...........
Chemicals ..
Primary metals
Machinery
Electrical products
Transportation equipment
Water transportation . . .
Air transportation
Utilities ..
Retail trade
Northeastern States Boilermakers Employers (Interstate) .................
Western States Field Construction agreement (Interstate)...............
National Electrical Contractors Association, South Florida Chapter
(Florida)
A.E. Staley Mfg. Co. (Decatur, IL )........................................
Fluid milk and ice cream companies (California) ....................
Textile dyeing, printing, and finishing companies (Interstate)
Federal Paper Board Co., Inc. (Riegelwood, NC)..................
Hercules Inc. (Radford, va) ...................................................
Boilermakers .......................................
Boilermakers .......................................
Electrical Workers (IBEW).................
1,500
5,300
1,150
Industrial W o rk ers..............................
Teamsters (Ind.) .................................
Clothing and Textile Workers .........
Paperw orkers.......................................
Oil, Chemical and Atomic Workers .
1,300
American Steel Foundries (Interstate) .....................................
CF&I Steel Corp. (Pueblo, CO) ............................................
Weirton Steel Corp. (West V irg in ia).......................................
Universal-Cyclops, Specialty Steel Division (Pennsylvania)
Atlantic Steel Co. (Atlanta, GA)............................................
Interlake Inc. (Riverdale, IL) ...............................................
Al Tech Specialty Steel Corp. (New Y o rk )............................
Dresser Industries Inc., Dresser Clark Division (Olean, NY)
Lufkin Industries Inc. (Lufkin, TX) .....................................
Rheem Manufacturing Co. (Fort Smith, ar) .......................
Steelworkers ..............................
Steelworkers ..............................
Independent Steelworkers Union
(Ind.)
Steelworkers ..............................
Steelworkers ..............................
Steelworkers ..............................
Steelworkers ..............................
Steelworkers ..............................
Various u n io n s............................
Steelworkers ..............................
Whirlpool Corp. (Fort Smith, ar) ..................................
Amana Refrigeration, Inc. (Amana, ia) ........................
Magic Chef, Inc. (Cleveland, TN) ..................................
General American Transportation Corp. (Interstate)
Borg-Wamer Corp., Warner Gear Division (Muncie, IN)
New York Shipping Association (Interstate) ....................
Philadelphia Marine Trade Association (Pennsylvania) .
Steamship Trade Association of Baltimore (Maryland) .
Industrial W o rk ers...............
Machinists ............................
Molders .................................
Steelworkers ........................
Auto w o rk e rs........................
Longshoremen’s Association
Longshoremen’s Association
Longshoremen’s Association
3.500
1.500
1,000
1,000
1,600
8.500
2,250
4.500
Hampton Roads Maritime Association (Virginia) ............................
New Orleans Steamship Association (Louisiana) ............................
West Gulf Maritime Association (Texas and Louisiana) ...............
South Atlantic Employers Negotiating Committee (North Carolina
and Florida)
Mobile Steamship Association (A labam a).........................................
Southwest Florida Employers Association (Florida) ........................
Republic Airlines, mechanics, related personnel, stock clerks
(Interstate)
Consumer Power Co. (Jackson, M l)........................................
Waldbaum, Food-A-Rama, and three others (New York, NY)
Longshoremen’s
Longshoremen’s
Longshoremen’s
Longshoremen’s
Association
Association
Association
Association
2.500
3,200
5.000
3,250
Longshoremen’s Association
Longshoremen’s Association
Machinists ............................
1.000
1,100
2.500
H o te ls .........
Giant Food Stores (Washington, DC)......................................
Safeway Food Stores (Washington, DC) ...............................
Giant Food Stores (Baltimore, MD) .......................................
Safeway Food Stores (Baltimore, M D)..................................... .
Building Managers Association (Chicago, IL )......................
Apartment Owners Advisory Council (Westchester, NY)
Hotel Association of Washington, DC (Washington, DC) ..
Services . . .
American Protective Services, Inc. (California) ....................
Amusements
Walt Disney Productions, Disneyland (Anaheim, ca) ........
Real estate .
See footnote at end of table.
46
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Utility Workers ..............................
Retail, Wholesale, and Department
Store
Food and Commercial Workers
Food and Commercial Workers
Food and Commercial Workers
Food and Commercial Workers
Service Employees ....................
Service Employees ....................
Hotel Employees and Restaurant
Employees
International Union of Security
Officers (Ind.)
Various u n io n s............................
1,200
3,400
1,200
2,200
1,000
1,600
8,000
1,100
1,000
1,200
1,750
1,400
1,800
1,200
4,700
18,000
7.000
5.000
3.000
1,400
6.000
3,500
6,000
2,800
1,850
In d u s tr y o r a c tiv ity
E m p lo y e r a n d lo c a tio n
Educational services ..............................
L a b o r o r g a n iz a tio n 1
N um ber o f
w orkers
Albert Einstein College of Medicine (New York, NY) ......................
Retail, Wholesale, and Department
Store
1 ,3 0 0
Social s erv ice s.........................................
St. Petersburg blue-collar unit ...........................................
Michigan: State Mental Health Institutional unit ..............................
Education Association (Ind.) ...........
State Employees Association ...........
State, County and Municipal
Employees
Firemen and O ile rs ..............................
State, County and Municipal
Employees
Fire Fighters .......................................
Police A ssociation..............................
1 ,1 0 0
General government ..............................
Arkansas: Little Rock Board of Education, teachers ........................
California: Compton Board of Education, classified employees . . . .
Florida:
Jacksonville general u n i t ......................................................
P u b lic
E du catio n ..................................................
Fire p ro te c tio n .........................................
Law enforcem ent.....................................
Texas:
San Antonio Fire D epartm ent.............................................
San Antonio Police D epartm ent.........................................
1 ,4 0 0
3 ,0 0 0
1 ,0 5 0
6 ,9 0 0
1 ,1 0 0
1 ,0 5 0
1 Affiliated with afl-CIO except where noted as independent (Ind.)-
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
A note on communications
The Monthly Labor Review welcomes communications that supplement,
challenge, or expand on research published in its pages. To be considered
for publication, communications should be factual and analytical, not po
lemical in tone. Communications should be addressed to the Editor-inChief, Monthly Labor Review, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Depart
ment of Labor, Washington, D.C. 20212.
47
Developments in
Industrial Relations
More steel settlements
The third settlement in the round of bargaining in the steel
industry occurred when Bethlehem Steel Corp. and the
United Steelworkers agreed on a 37-month contract for
30,000 employees. Reflecting the breakup of the major
companies’ united bargaining front and the union’s recogni
tion of the variations in the competitive problems facing the
individual companies, Bethlehem’s terms varied from the
leadoff l t v Steel and National Steel accords. (See Monthly
Labor Review, June 1986, pp. 45-46.)
The Bethlehem contract, which the workers approved by
a vote of 11,600 to 8,369, calls for a cut in compensation
totaling $1.97 an hour. According to the union, this reduces
average hourly labor costs to between $22.50 and $23. The
wage portion of compensation was cut 8.1 percent, or an
average of 98.6 cents an hour.
As at l t v Steel, the settlement provides for a plan under
which employees’ wage and benefit sacrifices will be repaid
in cash or shares of a new issue of dividend-bearing stock.
Retirees and employees will receive annual payments from
an allocation equal to 10 percent of profits up to $100
million and 20 percent of any excess. If this is not enough
to offset the employees’ sacrifices, the balance will be in
shares of the stock.
As in the earlier accords, the Bethlehem settlement estab
lishes a gain-sharing approach permitting local unions and
management to develop plans for distributing cash to em
ployees based on one or more of the following:
• tons of steel shipped;
• work hours per ton;
• quality of product; and
• reductions in nonlabor costs attributable to employee
efforts or initiative.
The plans may include inducements— such as improved
early retirement benefits and severance payments— in ex
change for negotiated reductions in the work force, but
Bethlehem is not permitted to contract out any work that had
been performed by departing employees.
“Developments in Industrial Relations” is prepared by George Ruben o f the
Division o f Developments in Labor-Management Relations, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and is largely based on information from secondary
sources.
48
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Among the cost-reducing contract changes accepted by
the union were suspension of the provision for automatic
quarterly cost-of-living pay adjustments, elimination of
three paid holidays, time and one-quarter premium pay for
Sunday work instead of time and one-half, and exclusion of
overtime, Sunday premium, and shift premiums from calcu
lations of vacation pay (unlike l t v Steel, the duration of
vacations was not reduced).
Utility contracts
In Massachusetts, members of the Utility Workers Union
ended a 1-month strike against Boston Edison Co. after
ratifying 4-year contracts. Terms, which were similar for
the three units of workers, included pay increases of 5 per
cent in the first year, 4.75 percent in the second and third
years, and 4.5 percent in the final year. The shift differential
also was raised by 5 cents an hour in each year, bringing it
to 70 cents.
The pension plan was revised to permit 30-year em
ployees to retire at age 60 at unreduced benefit rates (previ
ously, the age requirement was 62). The plan also was
revised to permit immediate retirement for 15-year em
ployees who become disabled and are not able to perform
the duties of their job or a similar job. If the company doctor
and the employee’s doctor are unable to agree on the extent
of the disability, the decision would be made by a specialist
recommended by the American Medical Association. Previ
ously, such rulings were made by a review board, which
required 100 percent disability. In another change, if an
employee with at least 10 years of service dies, the surviving
spouse will be entitled to a survivorship benefit (previously,
the minimum requirement was 20 years of service).
A major concern was resolved when the parties agreed to
establish a joint safety committee. Its first task is to oversee
installation of a fire sprinkler system and removal of as
bestos from the building where about 25 percent of the
2,800 employees work.
Other contract changes included doubling of accidental
death and dismemberment insurance coverage to $200,000;
5-year pay rate retention for disabled employees demoted to
lower paying jobs because of inability to perform current
duties; a switch to a health insurance plan containing various
requirements designed to contain premium cost increases;
and extension to clerical employees of grievance and arbi
tration procedures for resolving disputes over contracting
out of work.
In the Washington, D C , area, 1,800 employees were cov
ered by a 3-year agreement between the Washington Gas
Light Co. and the International Gas Workers Union and the
Office and Professional Employees. The settlement ended a
3-week strike, the first since a 17-day stoppage in 1961.
Wages were raised by 4.25 percent at the beginning of the
first and second years, and by 4.7 percent at the beginning
of the third year. The 4.7-percent increase is subject to
renegotiation if the Consumer Price Index rises 5.5 percent
or more between March 1987 and March 1988.
The company responded to the workers’ concern over job
security by promising to make every effort to avoid layoffs
during the contract period, which ends in May 1989.
Consolidated Edison Co. of New York City and the Util
ity Workers Union agreed on a 3-year contract for 14,500
workers. It provides for 4-percent wage increases in June of
1986, 1987, and 1988. The employees also received an
immediate $100 lump-sum payment for ratifying the accord
before June 22.
The contract provides for a $250 annual allowance for
employees who use their cars on the job; a choice of three
health insurance plans (previously, only one plan w7as avail
able) and two dental plans (previously, one plan); and im
proved early retirement benefits.
OSHA issues new asbestos standards
The Department of Labor’s Occupational Safety and
Health Administration has adopted stricter standards for
worker exposure to asbestos. The new standards differ for
the construction industry and the general industry. Secretary
of Labor William Brock said the standards will
“substantially increase protections for more than 1.3 million
workers and reduce their risk of cancer and other serious
disease.”
The new limit for exposure to asbestos is 0.2 fiber per
cubic centimeter of airspace, averaged over an 8-hour day.
This limit, although one-tenth the level in effect since 1976,
drew criticism from organized labor. The a f l -c i o described
the change as “significant progress” but said the new limit
came only “after years of delay” and that workers will still
be endangered.
The Associated General Contractors, comprising 8,500
construction firms, contended that the limit is too stringent.
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
The Asbestos Information Association, an employer group,
and industry in general, had backed the 0.5 fiber per cubic
centimeter limit osha had proposed in 1984.
osha said the 0.2 limit will benefit 1.3 million employees
above the 0.1 fiber per cubic centimeter “action level” at
which employers must begin some monitoring, training, and
corrective measures. The agency estimated that the 0.2 re
quirement will reduce the number of asbestos-caused cancer
deaths from 64 of 1,000 exposed workers to 6.7, and that it
expects the number of asbestosis cases to drop from 50 of
1,000 exposed workers to 5.
The standards require all employers to:
• Alert workers to the dangers of asbestos and train them in
safe work practices.
• Distribute respirators to workers in situations where air
quality can not be reduced to the acceptable level through
engineering controls and work practices.
• Distribute respirators to maintenance employees and in
emergencies.
• Post warning signs and labels.
• Keep employee medical and exposure records for at least
30 years.
• Separate change rooms, showers, and lunch rooms when
the fiber content of air exceeds the limit.
• Provide medical monitoring of employees when the action
level is attained for workers under the general industry
standard, and when it is maintained for at least 30 days or
negative pressure respirators are used for those under the
construction standard.
In addition, the new standards require construction employ
ers to:
• Provide negative pressure enclosures to prevent the escape
of asbestos fibers to other areas.
• Provide employee decontamination areas.
• Select a “competent person” to identify existing hazards
and take corrective action.
osha will continue to require employers to use engineer
ing controls and work practices for protecting workers from
excessive exposure to asbestos, which is derived from a
mineral and used in textiles, insulation, and other building
materials. This approach is favored by unions, which ob
jected to the agency’s original proposal, which called for use
of “any feasible combination” of engineering controls, work
practices, and protective equipment.
49
Book Reviews
A monument to the labor movement
The Samuel Gompers Papers: Voi. I, The Making o f a
Union Leader, 1850-86. Edited by Stuart B. Kauf
man. Champaign, il, University of Illinois Press,
1986. 529 pp. $39.95.
This is the first of a projected 12-volume series of docu
mentary papers of and about Sam Gompers. This first vol
ume takes the reader from the poorest section of London (his
parents’ marriage certificate, 1849, and sg’s birth certifi
cate, 1850), the passenger list of the ship London in which
the family arrived in New York in 1863, to Gompers’ elec
tion as the first president of the new American Federation of
Labor, 1886.
All labor history buffs have a treat in store for them as
they follow through Gompers’ eyes the workingman’s ef
forts at organization in the turbulent post-Civil War indus
trial era. Readers will enjoy learning more about the institu
tions, politics, and mores of that period. Here we find the
ethnic splits in Gompers’ union, the Cigarmakers, the ideo
logical split between the Knights of Labor and the trade
unions, and the continuing thrusts and parries between those
who put first the building of socialism and those who put
first the building of trade unions. In the middle of all this
strides Gompers, young and vigorous, very sure of his facts
and his views, and working ceaselessly.
Two highlights are worthy of special mention. The first is
Gompers’ testimony, at age 33, before the U.S. Senate
Education and Labor Committee, documenting wages and
working conditions, explaining the reasoning behind the
movement for an 8-hour day, giving details of individual
strikes along with his personal philosophy of trade union
ism. Sixty-six fascinating pages of testimony.
The second concerns Gompers’ efforts in 1881, as an
official of the Cigarmakers, to outlaw by legislation the
practice of manufacturing cigars in New York City tene
ments. Gompers personally conducted a special investiga
tion into the practice of employers who used tenement
families to roll cigars in their two-room tenement flats,
which were filled from morning to night with tobacco leaf
and its attendant tobacco dust. His extensive report included
case histories of individual contractors and individual tene
ment houses, as well as medical evidence of the deleterious
effects of tobacco, expecially on pregnant women and their
50
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
chances for healthy births. This, 83 years before the Sur
geon General’s Report on cigarette smoking.
This is the work of many hands. Stuart Kaufman, along
with four associate and two contributing editors, faced a
herculean task inasmuch as Gompers’ papers had been scat
tered to the four winds (and some destroyed). Since its start
in 1973, the project has gathered speed and the next two
volumes are nearing publication. The book’s format is help
ful to the reader. Documents are grouped together, roughly
chronologically, with introductory notes clarifying events
and identifying individuals.
It’s true that basic labor history can be more easily ob
tained elsewhere, but the letters, newspaper articles, organi
zation reports, committee minutes, and convention proceed
ings endow history with the stuff of reality. You are there.
Don’t miss it.
— Peter Henle
Arbitrator
Arlington, va
Book notes
Employment Termination: Rights and Remedies. By
William J. Holloway and Michael J. Leech. Washing
ton, The Bureau of National Affairs, Inc., 1985. 567
pp. $70. Available from bna Books, Distribution and
Customer Service Center, 9435 Key West Avenue,
Rockville, md 20850-3397.
“This book covers a most significant area of the law
which, for all practical purposes, didn’t exist until only a
few years ago. The black-letter rule used to be . . . that the
‘at will’ employee could be fired ‘for any reason, for an
improper reason, or for no reason at all.’ The rule had been
handed down and repeated virtually without question or
exception from medieval times— seemingly since the begin
ning of time.”
Employment Termination covers principal contract issues
concerning the formation, performance, and termination of
employment contracts; common law, statutory, and consti
tutional claims that often follow in the wake of an alleged
wrongful discharge; preclusions, procedural issues, and pre-
emption doctrines which may limit employee causes of ac
tion related to discharge; the rights of private voluntary
associations and their decisions to admit or exclude mem
bers; legal remedies, measures of damages, and equitable
remedies of reinstatement and injunction against discharge.
Also included is a comprehensive State-by-State listing of
employee protection statutes.
A Decade o f New Opportunity: Affirmative Action in the
1970’s. By Herbert Hammerman. Washington, The
Potomac Institute, Inc., 1984. 100 pp. $6, paper.
In contrast to an earlier (1973) Potomac Institute study—
which concluded that “more than a decade of affirmative
action policy has yielded woefully inadequate results”— this
study reports that women and minorities have made substan
tial progress in the work force in recent years, largely as a
result of affirmative action programs. Hammerman says that
“the gains have been uneven, and in most areas, parity is
still remote. But the trend is unmistakably in the direction of
equal opportunity, particularly in the higher positions that
were for so long closed to the traditional victims of
discrimination.”
Sonenklar, Carol, “Women and Their Magazines,” American De
mographics, June 1986, pp. 44-50.
Subich, Linda Mezydlo and others, “Occupational Perceptions of
Males and Females as a Function of Sex Ratios, Salary, and
Availability,” Journal of Vocational Behavior, April 1986, pp.
123-34.
Economic growth and development
Edwards, Richard C., Michael Reich, Thomas E. Weisskopf, The
Capitalist System: A Radical Analysis of American Society. 3d
ed. Englewood Cliffs, n j , Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1986, 429 pp.,
bibliography. $19.95, paper.
Feldstein, Martin, “Supply Side Economics: Old Truths and New
Claims,” The American Economic Review, May 1986, pp. 2642.
Segal, Martin, “Post-Institutionalism in Labor Economics: The
Forties and Fifties Revisited,” Industrial and Labor Relations
Review, April 1986, pp. 388-403.
Soule, Don M., Commonwealth of Kentucky Annual Economic
Report, 1985: An Economic and Governmental Finance Profile
of Kentucky. Lexington, University of Kentucky, Center for
Business and Economic Research, College of Business and Eco
nomics, 1986, 166 pp. $10, paper.
Stevens, Benjamin H. and George I. Treyz, “A Multiregional
Model Forecast for the United States Through 1995,” The Amer
ican Economic Review, May 1986, pp. 304-12.
Health and safety
Publications received
Agriculture and natural resources
Rice, Berkeley, “Water Shocks of the ‘80s,” Across the Board,
March 1986, pp. 17-23.
U.S. Department of Energy, Energy-Related Manpower, 1985.
Washington, U.S. Department of Energy, Manpower Assess
ment Program, Office of Energy Research, 1 9 8 6 , 8 2 pp. (Report
d o e / e r -0 1 3 4 /3 .) Available from the National Technical Infor
mation Service, U.S. Department of Commerce, Springfield,
va
22161.
Economic and social statistics
Goldman, Noreen and Graham Lord, “A New Look at Entropy and
the Life Table,” Demography, May 1986, pp. 275-82.
Kasarda, John D., Michael D. Irwin, Holly L. Hughes, “The
South Is Still Rising,” American Demographics, June 1986,
beginning on p. 32.
Lupoletti, William M. and Roy H. Webb, “Defining and Improv
ing the Accuracy of Macroeconomic Forecasts: Contributions
from a v a r Model,” Journal o f Business, April 1986, pp. 26385.
Riche, Martha Farnsworth, “Computer Mapping Takes Center
Stage,” American Demographics, June 1986, beginning on
p. 26.
Robinson, Isaac, “Blacks Move Back to the South,” American
Demographics, June 1986, pp. 40-43.
Slaney, Robert B. and Ellen T. Lewis, “Effects of Career Explo
ration on Career Undecided Reentry Women: An Intervention
and Follow-up Study,” Journal of Vocational Behavior, April
1986, pp. 97-109.
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Arnett, Ross H. HI and others, “Projections of Health Care Spend
ing to 1990,” Health Care Financing Review, Spring 1986, pp.
1-36.
Guterman, Stuart and Allen Dobson, “Impact of the Medicare
Prospective Payment System for Hospitals,” Health Care Fi
nancing Review, Spring 1986, pp. 97-144.
Meyer, Jack A., Sean Sullivan, Nancy S. Bagby, Health Care
Today: Issues, Trends, and Developments in Cost Management.
Washington, National Chamber Foundation, 1986, 49 pp. $10,
paper.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Injuries to Construction Labor
ers. Washington, 1986, 26 pp. (Bulletin 2252.) Stock No. 029001-02893-8. $1.75, Superintendent of Documents, Washing
ton 20402.
-----Injuries to Warehouse Workers. Washington, 1986, 24 pp.
(Bulletin 2257.) Stock No. 029-001-02898. $1.75, Superinten
dent of Documents, Washington 20402.
Industrial relations
Angle, Harold L. and James L. Perry, “Dual Commitment and
Labor-Management Relationship Climates,” Academy of Man
agement Journal, March 1986, pp. 31-50.
Dickens, William T., Wages, Employment and the Threat of Col
lective Action by Workers. Cambridge, m a , National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc., 1986, 43 pp. ( n b e r Working Paper
Series, 1856.) $2, paper.
Edwards, Richard and Paul Swaim, “Union-Nonunion Earnings
Differentials and the Decline of Private-Sector Unionism,” The
American Economic Review, May 1986, pp. 97-102.
Garonna, Paolo and Franz Todtling, Unions in Crisis and Beyond.
Dover, m a , Auburn House Publishing Co., 1986, 340 pp. $35.
51
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
August 1986 •
Book Reviews
Freeman, Richard B., “The Effect of the Union Wage Differential
on Management Opposition and Union Organizing Success,”
The American Economic Review, May 1986, pp. 92-96.
Gold, Charlotte, Labor-Management Committees: Confrontation,
Cooptation, or Cooperation? Ithaca, N Y , Cornell University,
New York State School of Industrial and Labor Relations, 1986,
59 pp. $ 6 , paper, i l r Press, Ithaca, NY.
Goldschmidt, Steven M. and Leland E. Stuart, “The Extent and
Impact of Educational Policy Bargaining,” Industrial and Labor
Relations Review, April 1986, pp. 350-60.
Hammer, Tove H. and Robert N. Stem, “A Yo-Yo Model of
Cooperation: Union Participation in Management at the Rath
Packing Company,” Industrial and Labor Relations Review,
April 1986, pp. 337-49.
Hunsicker, J. Freedley, Jr., Jonathan A. Kane, Peter D. Walther,
Jr., NLRB Remedies for Unfair Labor Practices. Rev. ed.
Philadelphia, University of Pennsylvania, The Wharton School,
Industrial Research Unit, 1986, 266 pp. $27.50, paper.
Jennings, Kenneth M., Jay A. Smith, Earle C. Traynham, LaborManagement Cooperation in a Public Service Industry. New
York, Praeger Publishers, A division of Greenwood Press, Inc.,
1986, 179 pp., bibliography. $35.
Juris, Hervey, Mark Thompson, Wilbur Daniels, eds., Industrial
Relations in a Decade of Economic Change. Madison, wi, Uni
versity of Wisconsin, Industrial Relations Research Association,
1986, 407 pp. $15, paper.
Rojot, Jacques, “The Development of French Employers’ Policy
Toward Trade Unions,” Labour and Society, January 1986, pp.
1-15.
International economics
Baldwin, Robert E. and J. David Richardson, eds., Current U.S.
Trade Policy: Analysis, Agenda, and Administration. Cam
bridge, M A, National Bureau o f Economic Research, Inc., 1986,
128 pp.
Holzer, Harry, J., Informal Job Search and Black Youth Unem
ployment. Cambridge, m a , National Bureau of Economic Re
search, Inc., 1986, 31 pp. (NBER Working Paper Series, 1860.)
$2, paper.
---------Search Method Used by Unemployed Youth. Cambridge,
m a , National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1986, 28 pp.
( n b e r Working Paper Series, 1859.) $2, paper.
Levitan, Sar A. and Peter E. Carlson, The Unnaturally Inflated
Rate of Unemployment. Washington, The George Washington
University, Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Public Policy
Program, 1986, 12 pp. (Public Policy Program Working Paper,
1986-2.)
Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development,
Labour Market Flexibility: Report by a High-Level Group of
Experts to the Secretary-General. Paris, 1986. 23 pp. Available
from OECD Publications and Information Center, Washington
20006-4582.
Management and organization theory
Andrade, Kerry McCoy and Suzanne Robitaille Ontiveros, eds.,
Organizational Behavior: Contemporary Viewpoints. Santa
Barbara, CA, ABC-Clio, Inc., 1986, 250 pp. $39.
Brockner, Joel and others, “Layoffs, Equity Theory, and Work
Performance: Further Evidence of the Impact of Survivor
Guilt,” Academy of Management Journal, June 1986, pp. 37384.
Buller, Paul F. and Cecil H. Bell, Jr., “Effects of Team Building
and Goal Setting on Productivity: A Field Experiment,”
Academy of Management Journal, June 1986, pp. 305-28.
Komaki, Judith L., “Toward Effective Supervision: An Operant
Analysis and Comparison of Managers at Work,” Journal of
Applied Psychology, May 1986, pp. 270-79.
Shafritz, Jay M., The Facts On File Dictionary of Personnel Man
agement and Labor Relations. 2d ed. New York, Facts On File,
1985, 584 pp. $29.95.
Chamovitz, Steve, Fair Labor Standards and International Trade.
Reprinted from Journal o f World Trade Law, January-February
1986, pp. 61-78.
Solomon, Esther E., “Private and Public Sector Managers: An
Empirical Investigation of Job Characteristics and Organiza
tional Climate,” Journal of Applied Psychology, May 1986, pp.
247-59.
Glick, Reuven and Homi J. Kharas, “The Costs and Benefits of
Foreign Borrowing: A Survey of Multi-Period Models,” The
Journal of Development Studies, January 1986, pp. 279-99.
Monetary and fiscal policy
Labour Canada, The International Labour Organization: A Cana
dian View. By John Mainwaring. Ottawa, Labour Canada,
1986, 206 pp. $9.95, Canada; $11.95, other countries. Avail
able from Canadian Government Publishing Center, Supply and
Services Canada, Ottawa, Canada k i a OS9.
Labor force
“Child Care Services—New Issues in the Workplace,” California
Public Employee Relations, ” March 1986, pp. 2—11.
Aronson, J. Richard, and John L. Hilley, Financing State and
Local Governments. 4th ed., Washington, The Brookings Insti
tution, 1986, 265 pp., bibliography. $26.95, cloth; $9.95,
paper.
Epstein, Joshua M., The 1987 Defense Budget. Washington, The
Brookings Institution, 1986, 61 pp. $7.95, paper.
Gamer, C. Alan, “Recent Developments in Nonresidential Con
struction Activity,” Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of
Kansas City, April 1986, pp. 3-18.
Cho, Woong K., “Getting a Job in Poor Counties of the Rural
South,” Rural Development Perspectives, February 1986, pp.
29-31.
DeFrank, Richard S. and John M. Ivancevich, “Job Loss: An
Individual Level Review and Model,” Journal of Vocational
Behavior, February 1986, pp. 1-20.
Kenen, Peter B., Financing, Adjustment, and the International
Monetary Fund, Washington, The Brookings Institution, 1986,
89 pp.
Morris, Charles S. and Katherine M. Hecht, “Do Multibank Hold
ing Companies Affect Banking Market Concentration?” Eco
nomic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, April
1986, pp. 19-30.
Great Britain, Department of Employment, “Revised Employment
Estimates for 1983 to 1985,” Employment Gazette, May 1986,
pp. 161-65.
Reeder, Richard J., “Rural Attitudes Toward Government Taxes
and Spending,” Rural Development Perspectives, February
1986, pp. 10-16.
52
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©
Current
Labor Statistics
S c h e d u le o f r e le a s e d a te s fo r m a jo r
N o te s o n C u r r e n t L a b o r S ta tis tic s
bls
s t a t i s t i c a l s e r i e s ......................................................................................................
...................................................................................................................................................................
54
55
C o m p a r a tiv e in d ic a to r s
1. Labor market indicators..................................................................................................................................................................................................
2. Annual and quarterly percent changes in compensation, prices, and productivity ........................................................................................
3. Alternative measures o f wage and compensation changes ...................................................................................................................................
64
65
65
L a b o r fo r c e d a ta
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
Employment status o f the total population, data seasonally ad ju sted .................................................................................................................
Employment status o f the civilian population, data seasonally adjusted ..........................................................................................................
Selected employment indicators, data seasonally adjusted ...................................................................................................................................
Selected unemployment indicators, data seasonally adjusted ...............................................................................................................................
Unemployment rates by sex and age, data seasonally adjusted ..........................................................................................................................
Unemployed persons by reason for unemployment, data seasonally a d ju sted .................................................................................................
Duration o f unemployment, data seasonally adjusted ............................................................................................................................................
Unemployment rates o f civilian workers, by State .................................................................................................................................................
Employment o f workers by State ........................
Employment of workers by industry, data seasonally adjusted............................................................................................................................
Average weekly hours by industry, data seasonally adjusted ...............................................................................................................................
Average hourly earnings by industry .........................................................................................................................................................................
Average weekly earnings by in d ustry.........................................................................................................................................................................
Hourly Earnings Index by industry..............................................................................................................................................................................
Indexes o f diffusion: proportion o f industries in which employment increased, seasonally adjusted ......................................................
Annual data: Employment status o f the noninstitutional population
...........................................................................................................
Annual data: Employment levels by industry ..........................................................................................................................................................
Annual data: Average hours and earnings levels by industry..............................................................................................................................
66
67
68
69
70
70
70
71
71
72
73
74
75
75
76
76
76
77
L a b o r c o m p e n s a tio n a n d c o lle c tiv e b a r g a in in g d a ta
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
Employment Cost Index, compensation, by occupation and industry g r o u p ....................................................................................................
Employment Cost Index, wages and salaries, by occupation and industry g r o u p ...........................................................................................
Employment Cost Index, private nonfarm workers, by bargaining status, region, and area s i z e ...............................................................
Specified compensation and wage adjustments from contract settlements, and effective wage adjustments,
situations covering 1,000 workers or more ..............................................................................................................................................................
Average specified compensation and wage adjustments, bargainingsituations covering 1,000 workers or m o r e ......................................
Average effective wage adjustments, bargaining situations covering 1,000 workers ormore .....................................................................
Specified compensation and wage adjustments, State and local government bargaining
situations covering 1,000 workers or more ..............................................................................................................................................................
Work stoppages involving 1,000 workers or more .................................................................................................................................................
78
79
80
81
81
82
82
82
P r ic e d a ta
30.
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
41.
Consumer Price Index: U .S. City average, by expenditure category and commodity and service groups ..............................................
Consumer Price Index: U .S. City average and local data,all items ...................................................................................................................
Annual data: Consumer Price Index, all items and major groups ......................................................................................................................
Producer Price Indexes by stage o f processing .......................................................................................................................................................
Producer Price Indexes, by durability of product ...................................................................................................................................................
Annual data: Producer Price Indexes by stage of p ro cessin g ...............................................................................................................................
U .S . export price indexes by Standard International Trade C lassification ........................................................................................................
U .S. import price indexes by Standard International Trade C lassification........................................................................................................
U .S. export price indexes by end-use category ........................................................................................................................................................
U .S. import price indexes by end-use c a teg o ry ........................................................................................................................................................
U .S. export price indexes by Standard Industrial C lassification..........................................................................................................................
U .S. import price indexes by Standard Industrial Classification ........................................................................................................................
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83
86
87
88
89
89
90
91
92
92
92
93
53
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
August 1986 •
Current Labor Statistics
Contents—Continued
Productivity data
93
94
95
42. Indexes o f productivity, hourly compensation, and unit costs, data seasonally adjusted
43. Annual indexes of multifactor productivity .............................................................................
44. Annual indexes o f productivity, hourly compensation, unit costs, and p r ic e s ................
International com parisons
95
96
97
45. Unemployment rates in nine countries, data seasonally adjusted .......................................
46. Annual data: Employment status o f civilian working-age population, ten countries . .
47. Annual indexes of productivity and related measures, twelve countries .........................
Injury and illness data
98
48. Annual data: Occupational injury and illness incidence r a te s.............................................
Schedule of release dates for BLS statistical series
—
S e r ie s
Employment situation............................
Producer Price Index ............................
Consumer Price Index ..........................
Real earnings........................................
Major collective bargaining
R e le a s e
P e r io d
R e le a s e
P e r io d
R e le a s e
P e rio d
M L R ta b le
d a te
c o v e rd
d a te
c o v e re d
d a te
c o v e re d
num ber
August
August
August
August
October
October
October
October
August
August
August
August
1
15
21
21
July
July
July
July
September
September
September
September
5
12
23
23
3
10
23
23
September
September
September
September
1; 4-21
2; 33-35
2; 30-32
14-17
3rd quarter
3- 25-28
1-3; 22-24
Productivity and costs:
Nonfarm business and
3rd quarter
Nonfinancial corporations ................
Occupational illnesses and injuries . . . .
54
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August 27
2nd quarter
November 13
1985
2- 42-44
2- 42-44
2‘ 36-41
48
NOTES ON CURRENT LABOR STATISTICS
This section o f the Review presents the principal statistical series collected
and calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics: series on labor force,
employment, unemployment, collective bargaining settlements, consumer,
producer, and international prices, productivity, international comparisons,
and injury and illness statistics. In the notes that follow , the data in each
group o f tables is briefly described, key definitions are given, notes on the
data are set forth, and sources of additional information are cited.
Adjustments for price changes. Some data— such as the Hourly
Earnings Index in table 17— are adjusted to eliminate the effect o f changes
in price. These adjustments are made by dividing current dollar values by
the Consumer Price Index or the appropriate component of the index, then
multiplying by 100. For example, given a current hourly wage rate o f $3
and a current price index number of 150, where 1967 = 100, the hourly rate
expressed in 1967 dollars is $2 ($3/150 x 100 = $2). The $2 (or any other
resulting values) are described as “real,” “constant,” or “ 1967” dollars.
General notes
Additional information
The following notes apply to several tables in this section:
Seasonal adjustment.
Certain monthly and quarterly data are adjusted
to eliminate the effect on the data o f such factors as climatic conditions,
industry production schedules, opening and closing o f schools, holiday
buying periods, and vacation practices, which might prevent short-term
evaluation o f the statistical series. Tables containing data that have been
adjusted are identified as “seasonally adjusted.” (All other data are not
seasonally adjusted.) Seasonal effects are estimated on the basis of past
experience. When new seasonal factors are computed each year, revisions
may affect seasonally adjusted data for several preceding years. (Season
ally adjusted data appear in tables 1—3, 4 -1 0 , 13, 14, and 18.) Beginning
in January 1980, the bls introduced two major modifications in the sea
sonal adjustment methodology for labor force data. First, the data are being
seasonally adjusted with a new procedure called x - n arim a , which was
developed at Statistics Canada as an extension o f the standard x - ii method
previously used by b l s . A detailed description o f the procedure appears in
The x - n a r im a Seasonal Adjustment Method by Estla Bee Dagum (Statis
tics Canada, Catalogue No. 12-564E , January 1983). The second change
is that seasonal factors are now being calculated for use during the first 6
months o f the year, rather than for the entire year, and then are calculated
at mid-year for the July-December period. However, revisions of historical
data continue to be made only at the end of each calendar year.
Seasonally adjusted labor force data in tables 1 and 4 - 1 0 were revised
in the February 1986 issue o f the Review, to reflect experience through
1985.
Annual revisions o f the seasonally adjusted payroll data shown in tables
13, 14, and 18 were made in July 1985 using the x - n arima seasonal
adjustment methodology. New seasonal factors for productivity data in
table 42 are usually introduced in the September issue. Seasonally adjusted
indexes and percent changes from month to month and from quarter to
quarter are published for numerous Consumer and Producer Price Index
series. However, seasonally adjusted indexes are not published for the U .S.
average All Items cpi. Only seasonally adjusted percent changes are avail
able for this series.
Data that supplement the tables in this section are published by the
Bureau in a variety o f sources. Press releases provide the latest statistical
information published by the Bureau; the major recurring releases are
published according to the schedule preceding these general notes. More
information about labor force, employment, and unemployment data and
the household and establishment surveys underlying the data are available
in Employment and Earnings, a monthly publication of the Bureau. More
data from the household survey is published in the two-volume data book—
Labor Force Statistics Derived From the Current Population Survey, Bul
letin 2096. More data from the establishment survey appears in two data
books— Employment, Hours, and Earnings, United States, and Employ
ment, Hours, and Earnings, States and Areas, and the annual supplements
to these data books. More detailed information on employee compensation
and collective bargaining settlements is published in the monthly periodi
cal, Current Wage Developments. More detailed data on consumer and
producer prices are published in the monthly periodicals, The c p i Detailed
Report, and Producer Prices and Price Indexes. Detailed data on all o f the
series in this section are provided in the Handbook of Labor Statistics,
which is published biennally by the Bureau, bls bulletins are issued cover
ing productivity, injury and illness, and other data in this section. Finally,
the Monthly Labor Review carries analytical articles on annual and longer
term developments in labor force, employment and unemployment; em
ployee compensation and collective bargaining; prices; productivity; inter
national comparisons; and injury and illness data.
Symbols
p = preliminary. To increase the timeliness o f some series, prelim
inary figures are issued based on representative but incom
plete returns.
r = revised. Generally, this revision reflects the availability o f later
data but may also reflect other adjustments,
n.e.c. = not elsewhere classified,
n .e.s. = not elsewhere specified.
COMPARATIVE INDICATORS
(Tables 1-3)
Comparative indicators tables provide an overview and comparison of
major bls statistical series. Consequently, although many o f the included
series are available monthly, all measures in these comparative tables are
presented quarterly and annually.
Labor market indicators include employment measures from two ma
jor surveys and information on rates o f change in compensation provided
by the Employment Cost Index (eci) program. The labor force participation
rate, the employment-to-population ratio, and unemployment rates for
major demographic groups based on the Current Population (“household ”)
Survey are presented, while measures of employment and average weekly
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hours by major industry sector are given using nonagricultural payroll data.
The Employment Cost Index (compensation), by major sector and by
bargaining status, is chosen from a variety o f bls compensation and wage
measures because it provides a comprehensive measure o f employer costs
for hiring labor, not just outlays for wages, and it is not affected by
employment shifts among occupations and industries.
Data on changes in compensation, prices, and productivity are pre
sented in table 2. Measures of rates o f change o f compensation and wages
from the Employment Cost Index program are provided for all civilian
55
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
August 1986 •
Current Labor Statistics
nonfarm workers (excluding Federal and household workers) and for all
Notes on the data
private nonfarm workers. Measures of changes in: consumer prices for all
Definitions o f each series and notes on the data are contained in later
sections o f these notes describing each set of data. For detailed descriptions
o f each data series, see b l s Handbook of Methods, Volumes I and II,
Bulletins 2134-1 and 2 1 3 4 -2 (Bureau o f Labor Statistics, 1982 and 1984,
respectively), as well as the additional bulletins, articles, and other publi
cations noted in the separate sections of the Review's “Current Labor
Statistics Notes.” Historical data for many series are provided in the Hand
book o f Labor Statistics, Bulletin 2217 (Bureau o f Labor Statistics, 1985).
Users may also wish to consult Major Programs, Bureau o f Labor Statis
tics, Report 718 (Bureau o f Labor Statistics, 1985).
urban consumers; producer prices by stage of processing; and the overall
export and import price indexes are given. Measures o f productivity (output
per hour o f all persons) are provided for major sectors.
Alternative measures of wage and compensation rates of change,
which reflect the overall trend in labor costs, are summarized in table 3.
Differences in concepts and scope, related to the specific purposes o f the
series, contribute to the variation in changes among the individual mea
sures.
EMPLOYMENT DATA
(Tables 1; 4-21)
Household survey data
Description of the series
in this section are obtained from the Current Population
Survey, a program of personal interviews conducted monthly by the Bureau
o f the Census for the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The sample consists of
about 59,500 households selected to represent the U .S. population 16 years
o f age and older. Households are interviewed on a rotating basis, so that
three-fourths o f the sample is the same for any 2 consecutive months.
employment data
Definitions
Employed persons include (1) all civilians who worked for pay any time
during the week which includes the 12th day of the month or who worked
unpaid for 15 hours or more in a family-operated enterprise and (2) those
who were temporarily absent from their regular jobs because of illness,
vacation, industrial dispute, or similar reasons. Members o f the Armed
Forces stationed in the United States are also included in the employed
total. A person working at more than one job is counted only in the job at
which he or she worked the greatest number o f hours.
Unemployed persons are those who did not work during the survey
week, but were available for work except for temporary illness and had
looked for jobs within the preceding 4 weeks. Persons who did not look for
work because they were on layoff or waiting to start new jobs within the
next 30 days are also counted among the unemployed. The overall unem
ployment rate represents the number unemployed as a percent of the labor
force, including the resident Armed Forces. The civilian unemployment
rate represents the number unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor
force.
The labor force consists of all employed or unemployed civilians plus
members o f the Armed Forces stationed in the United States. Persons not
in the labor force are those not classified as employed or unemployed; this
group includes persons who are retired, those engaged in their own house
work, those not working while attending school, those unable to work
because o f long-term illness, those discouraged from seeking work because
o f personal or job market factors, and those who are voluntarily idle. The
noninstitutional population comprises all persons 16 years o f age and
older who are not inmates o f penal or mental institutions, sanitariums, or
homes for the aged, infirm, or needy, and members o f the Armed Forces
stationed in the United States. The labor force participation rate is the
proportion o f the noninstitutional populaton that is in the labor force. The
employment-population ratio is total employment (including the resident
Armed Forces) as a percent of the noninstitutional population.
Notes on the data
From time to time, and especially after a decennial census, adjustments
56
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
are made in the Current Population Survey figures to correct for estimating
errors during the preceding years. These adjustments affect the comparabil
ity of historical data. A description o f these adjustments and their effect on
the various data series appear in the Explanatory Notes of Employment and
Earnings.
Data in tables 4 -1 0 are seasonally adjusted, based on the seasonal
experience through December 1984.
Additional sources of information
For detailed explanations o f the data, see b l s Handbook of Methods,
Bulletin 2134-1 (Bureau o f Labor Statistics, 1982), chapter 1, and for
additional data, Handbook of Labor Statistics, Bulletin 2217 (Bureau o f
Labor Statistics, 1985). A detailed description of the Current Population
Survey as well as additional data are available in the monthly Bureau o f
Labor Statistics periodical, Employment and Earnings. Historical data
from 1948 to 1982 are available in Labor Force Statistics Derived from the
Current Population Survey: A Databook, Vols. I and II, Bulletin 2096
(Bureau o f Labor Statistics, 1982).
A comprehensive discussion o f the differences between household and
establishment data on employment appears in Gloria P. Green, “Comparing
employment estimates from household and payroll surveys,” Monthly
Labor Review, December 1969, pp. 9—20.
Establishment survey data
Description of the series
E mployment , hours , and earnings data in this section are compiled from
payroll records reported monthly on a voluntary basis to the Bureau of
Labor Statistics and its cooperating State agencies by more than 200,000
establishments representing all industries except agriculture. In most indus
tries, the sampling probabilities are based on the size o f the establishment;
most large establishments are therefore in the sample. (An establishment is
not necessarily a firm; it may be a branch plant, for example, or ware
house.) Self-employed persons and others not on a regular civilian payroll
are outside the scope of the survey because they are excluded from estab
lishment records. This largely accounts for the difference in employment
figures between the household and establishment surveys.
Definitions
An establishment is an economic unit which produces goods or services
(such as a factory or store) at a single location and is engaged in one type
o f economic activity.
Employed persons are all persons who received pay (including holiday
and sick pay) for any part o f the payroll period including the 12th of the
month. Persons holding more than one job (about 5 percent o f all persons
in the labor force) are counted in each establishment which reports them.
Production workers in manufacturing include blue-collar worker super
visors and all nonsupervisory workers closely associated with production
operations. Those workers mentioned in tables 1 2-16 include production
workers in manufacturing and mining; construction workers in construc
tion; and nonsupervisory workers in the following industries: transportation
and public utilities; wholesale and retail trade; finance, insurance, and real
estate; and services. These groups account for about four-fifths of the total
employment on private nonagricutural payrolls.
Earnings are the payments production or nonsupervisory workers re
ceive during the survey period, including premium pay for overtime or
late-shift work but excluding irregular bonuses and other special payments.
Real earnings are earnings adjusted to reflect the effects of changes in
consumer prices. The deflator for this series is derived from the Consumer
Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers ( cpi- w ). The
Hourly Earnings Index is calculated from average hourly earnings data
adjusted to exclude the effects o f two types o f changes that are unrelated
to underlying wage-rate developments: fluctuations in overtime premiums
in manufacturing (the only sector for which overtime data are available)
and the effects o f changes and seasonal factors in the proportion o f workers
in high-wage and low-wage industries.
Hours represent the average weekly hours o f production or nonsupervi
sory workers for which pay was received and are different from standard
or scheduled hours. Overtime hours represent the portion o f gross average
weekly hours which were in excess o f regular hours and for which overtime
premiums were paid.
The Diffusion Index, introduced in the May 1983 Review , represents
the percent o f 185 nonagricultural industries in which employment was
rising over the indicated period. One-half o f the industries with unchanged
employment are counted as rising. In line with Bureau practice, data for
the 1-, 3-, and 6-month spans are seasonally adjusted, while those for the
12-month span are unadjusted. The diffusion index is useful for measur
ing the dispersion o f economic gains or losses and is also an economic
indicator.
Notes on the data
Establishment data collected by the Bureau o f Labor Statistics are peri
odically adjusted to com prehensive counts o f em ploym ent (called
“benchmarks”). The latest complete adjustment was made with the release
o f May 1985 data, published in the July 1985 issue o f the Review. Conse
quently, data published in the Review prior to that issue are not necessarily
comparable to current data. Unadjusted data have been revised back to
April 1983; seasonally adjusted data have been revised back to January
1980. These revisions were published in the Supplement to Employment
and Earnings (Bureau o f Labor Statistics, 1985). Unadjusted data from
April 1984 forward, and seasonally adjusted data from January 1981 for
ward are subject to revision in future benchmarks.
Additional sources of information
Detailed data from the establishment survey are published monthly in the
periodical, Employment and Earnings. Earlier comparable unadjusted
and seasonally adjusted data are published in Employment, Hours, and
Earnings, United States, 1909-84, Bulletin 1312-12 (Bureau o f Labor
Statistics, 1985) and its annual supplement. For a detailed discussion o f the
methodology o f the survey, se e b l s Handbook o f Methods, Bulletin 2134-1
(Bureau o f Labor Statistics, 1982), chapter 2. For additional data, see
Handbook o f Labor Statistics, Bulletin 2217 (Bureau o f Labor Statistics,
1985).
bls
A comprehensive discussion of the differences between household and
establishment data on employment appears in Gloria P. Green, “Comparing
employment estimates from household and payroll surveys,” Monthly
Labor Review, December 1969, pp. 9 -2 0 .
Unemployment data by State
Description of the series
Data presented in this section are obtained from two major sources— the
Current Population Survey ( cps ) and the Local Area Unemployment Statis
tics (lau s ) program, which is conducted in cooperation with State employ
ment security agencies.
Monthly estimates of the labor force, employment, and unemployment
for States and sub-State areas are a key indicator o f local economic condi
tions and form the basis for determining the eligibility o f an area for
benefits under Federal economic assistance programs such as the Job Train
ing Partnership Act and the Public Works and Economic Development Act.
Insofar as possible, the concepts and definitions underlying these data are
those used in the national estimates obtained from the c ps .
Notes on the data
Data refer to State o f residence. Monthly data for 11 States— California,
Florida, Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan, New York, New Jersey, North
Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas— are obtained directly from the
cps , because the size of the sample is large enough to meet bls standards
o f reliability. Data for the remaining 39 States and the District o f Columbia
are derived using standardized procedures established by b l s . Once a year,
estimates for the 11 States are revised to new population controls. For the
remaining States and the District of Columbia, data are benchmarked to
annual average cps levels.
Additional sources of information
Information on the concepts, definitions, and technical procedures used
to develop labor force data for States and sub-State areas as well as addi
tional data on sub-States are provided in the monthly Bureau o f Labor
Statistics periodical, Employment and Earnings, and the annual report,
Geographic Profile o f Employment and Unemployment (Bureau o f Labor
Statistics). See also b l s Handbook of Methods, Bulletin 2134-1 (Bureau o f
Labor Statistics, 1982), chapter 4.
COMPENSATION AND WAGE DATA
(Tables 1-3; 22-29)
C ompensation and wage data are gathered by the Bureau from business
establishments, State and local governments, labor unions, collective bar
gaining agreements on file with the Bureau, and secondary sources.
Employment Cost Index
Description of the series
The Employment Cost Index (eci) is a quarterly measure of the rate of
change in compensation per hour worked and includes wages, salaries, and
employer costs o f employee benefits. It uses a fixed market basket of
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
labor— similar in concept to the Consumer Price Index’s fixed market
basket o f goods and services— to measure change over time in employer
costs of employing labor. The index is not seasonally adjusted.
Statistical series on total compensation costs and on wages and salaries
are available for private nonfarm workers excluding proprietors, the selfemployed, and household workers. Both series are also available for State
and local government workers and for the civilian nonfarm economy,
which consists o f private industry and State and local government workers
combined. Federal workers are excluded.
The Employment Cost Index probability sample consists o f about 2,200
private nonfarm establishments providing about 12,000 occupational ob
servations and 700 State and local government establishments providing
57
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
August 1986 •
Current Labor Statistics
3,500 occupational observations selected to represent total employment in
each sector. On average, each reporting unit provides wage and compensa
tion information on five well-specified occupations. Data are collected each
quarter for the pay period including the 12th day of March, June, Septem
ber, and December.
Fixed employment weights from the 1970 Census o f Population are used
each quarter to calculate the indexes for civilian, private, and State and
local governments. These fixed weights, also used to derive all of the
industry and occupation series indexes, ensure that changes in these in
dexes reflect only changes in compensation, not employment shifts among
industries or occupations with different levels o f wages and compensation.
For the b a r g a in in g status, region, and metropolitan/nonmetropolitan area
series, however, employment data by industry and occupation are not
available from the census. Instead, the 1970 employment weights are
reallocated within these series each quarter based on the current sample.
Therefore, these indexes are not strictly comparable to those for the aggre
gate, industry, and occupation series.
Definitions
Total compensation costs include wages, salaries, and the employer
costs for employee benefits.
Wages and salaries consist of earnings before payroll deductions, in
cluding production bonuses, incentive earnings, commissions, and cost-ofliving adjustments.
Benefits include the cost to employers for paid leave, supplemental pay
(including nonproduction bonuses), insurance, retirement and savings
plans, and legally required benefits (such as social security, workers’
compensation, and unemployment insurance).
Excluded from wages and salaries and employee benefits are such items
as payment-in-kind, free room and board, and tips.
Notes on the data
The Employment Cost Index data series began in the fourth quarter of
1975, with the quarterly percent change in wages and salaries in the private
nonfarm sector. Data on employer costs for employee benefits were in
cluded in 1980 to produce, when combined with the wages and salaries
series, a measure o f the percent change in employer costs for employee
total compensation. State and local government units were added to the eci
coverage in 1981, providing a measure of total compensation change in the
civilian nonfarm economy (excluding Federal employees). Historical in
dexes (June 1981 = 100) of the quarterly rates o f change are presented in the
May issue o f the bls monthly periodical, Current Wage Developments.
Additional sources of information
For a more detailed discussion o f the Employment Cost Index, see
Chapter 11, “The Employment Cost Index,” in the Handbook o f Methods,
Bulletin 2134-1 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1982), and the following
Monthly Labor Review articles: “Employment Cost Index: a measure of
change in the ‘price o f labor’,” July 1975; “How benefits will be incorpo
rated into the Employment Cost Index,” January 1978; “Estimation proce
dures for the Employment Cost Index,” May 1982; and “Introducing new
weights for the Employment Cost Index,” June 1985.
Data on the eci are also available in bls quarterly press releases issued
in the month following the reference months of March, June, September,
and December; and from the Handbook of Labor Statistics, Bulletin 2217
(Bureau o f Labor Statistics, 1985).
Collective bargaining settlements
(wages and benefits costs) and wages alone, quarterly for private industry
and semiannually for State and local government. Compensation measures
cover all collective bargaining situations involving 5,000 workers or more
and wage measures cover all situations involving 1,000 workers or more.
These data, covering private nonagricultural industries and State and local
governments, are calculated using information obtained from bargaining
agreements on file with the Bureau, parties to the agreements, and second
ary sources, such as newspaper accounts. The data are not seasonally
adjusted.
Settlement data are measured in terms of future specified adjustments:
those that will occur within 12 months after contract ratification— first
year— and all adjustments that will occur over the life o f the contract
expressed as an average annual rate. Adjustments are worker weighted.
Both first-year and over-the-life measures exclude wage changes that may
occur under cost-of-living clauses that are triggered by future movements
in the Consumer Price Index.
Effective wage adjustments measure all adjustments occurring in the
reference period, regardless of the settlement date. Included are changes
from settlements reached during the period, changes deferred from con
tracts negotiated in earlier periods, and changes under cost-of-living adjust
ment clauses. Each wage change is worker weighted. The changes are
prorated over all workers under agreements during the reference period
yielding the average adjustment.
Definitions
Wage rate changes are calculated by dividing newly negotiated wages
by the average hourly earnings, excluding overtime, at the time the agree
ment is reached. Compensation changes are calculated by dividing the
change in the value of the newly negotiated wage and benefit package by
existing average hourly compensation, which includes the cost o f previ
ously negotiated benefits, legally required social insurance programs, and
average hourly earnings.
Compensation changes are calculated by placing a value on the benefit
portion of the settlements at the time they are reached. The cost estimates
are based on the assumption that conditions existing at the time o f settle
ment (for example, methods o f financing pensions or composition o f labor
force) will remain constant. The data, therefore, are measures of negotiated
changes and not o f total changes in employer cost.
Contract duration runs from the effective date of the agreement to the
expiration date or first wage reopening date, if applicable. Average annual
percent changes over the contract term take account of the compounding of
successive changes.
Notes on the data
Care should be exercised in comparing the size and nature of the settle
ments in State and local government with those in the private sector because
o f differences in bargaining practices and settlement characteristics. A
principal difference is the incidence of cost-of-living adjustment (cola )
clauses which cover only about 2 percent of workers under a few local
government settlements, but cover 50 percent of workers under private
sector settlements. Agreements without cola ’s tend to provide larger speci
fied wage increases than those with cola ’s . Another difference is that State
and local government bargaining frequently excludes pension benefits
which are often prescribed by law. In the private sector, in contrast,
pensions are typically a bargaining issue.
Additional sources of information
Description of the series
For a more detailed discussion on the series, see of the b l s Handbook o f
Methods, Bulletin 2134-1 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1982), chapter 10.
Collective b a r g a i n i n g settlements data provide statistical measures of
negotiated adjustments (increases, decreases, and freezes) in compensation
Comprehensive data are published in press releases issued quarterly (in
January, April, July, and October) for private industry, and semi-
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annually (in February and August) for State and local government. Histor
ical data and additional detailed tabulations for the prior calendar year
appear in the April issue o f the bls monthly periodical, Current Wage
monthly periodical, Current Wage Developments. Historical data appear in
the BLS Handbook of Labor Statistics.
Developments.
Other compensation data
Work stoppages
Other bls data on pay and benefits, not included in the Current Labor
Statistics section of the Monthly Labor Review, appear in and consist o f the
following:
Description of the series
Data on work stoppages measure the number and duration o f major
strikes or lockouts (involving 1,000 workers or more) occurring during the
month (or year), the number o f workers involved, and the amount of time
lost because o f stoppage.
Data are largely from newspaper accounts and cover only establishments
directly involved in a stoppage. They do not measure the indirect or second
ary effect o f stoppages on other establishments whose employees are idle
owing to material shortages or lack o f service.
Definitions
Number of stoppages: The number of strikes and lockouts involving
1,000 workers or more and lasting a full shift or longer.
Workers involved: The number o f workers directly involved in the
stoppage.
Number of days idle: The aggregate number of work days lost by
workers involved in the stoppages.
Days of idleness as a percent of estimated working time: Aggregate
work days lost as a percent o f the aggregate number o f standard work days
in the period multiplied by total employment in the period.
Notes on the data
This series is not comparable with the one terminated in 1981 that
covered strikes involving six workers or more.
Additional sources of information
Data for each calendar year are reported in a bls press release issued in
the first quarter o f the following year. Monthly data appear in the bls
Industry Wage Surveys provide data for specific occupations selected to
represent an industry’s wage structure and the types o f activities performed
by its workers. The Bureau collects information on weekly work schedules,
shift operations and pay differentials, paid holiday and vacation practices,
and information on incidence of health, insurance, and retirement plans.
Reports are issued throughout the year as the surveys are completed.
Summaries of the data and special analyses also appear in the Monthly
Labor Review.
Area Wage Surveys annually provide data for selected office, clerical,
professional, technical, maintenance, toolroom, powerplant, material
movement, and custodial occupations common to a wide variety o f indus
tries in the areas (labor markets) surveyed. Reports are issued throughout
the year as the surveys are completed. Summaries of the data and special
analyses also appear in the Review.
The National Survey o f Professional, Administrative, Technical, and
Clerical Pay provides detailed information annually on salary levels and
distributions for the types o f jobs mentioned in the survey’s title in private
employment. Although the definitions o f the jobs surveyed reflect the
duties and responsibilities in private industry, they are designed to match
specific pay grades o f Federal white-collar employees under the General
Schedule pay system. Accordingly, this survey provides the legally re
quired information for comparing the pay o f salaried employees in the
Federal civil service with pay in private industry. (See Federal Pay Com
parability Act o f 1970, 5 u.s.c. 5305.) Data are published in a bls news
release issued in the summer and in a bulletin each fall; summaries and
analytical articles also appear in the Review.
Employee Benefits Survey provides nationwide information on the inci
dence and characteristics o f employee benefit plans in medium and large
establishments in the United States, excluding Alaska and Hawaii. Data are
published in an annual bls news release and bulletin, as well as in special
articles appearing in the Review.
PRICE DATA
(Tables 2; 30-41)
PRICE DATA are gathered by the Bureau o f Labor Statistics from retail
workers, the cpi- u covers professional, m anagerial, and technical workers,
and primary markets in the United States. Price indexes are given in
relation to a base period (1967 = 100, unless otherwise noted).
the self-em ployed, short-term w orkers, the unem ployed, retirees, and oth
ers not in the labor force.
Consumer Price Indexes
Description of the series
The Consumer Price Index (cpi) is a measure o f the average change in
the prices paid by urban consumers for a fixed market basket o f goods and
services. The cpi is calculated monthly for two population groups, one
consisting only o f urban households whose primary source of income is
derived from the employment o f wage earners and clerical workers, and the
other consisting o f all urban households. The wage earner index ( cpi- w ) is
a continuation o f the historic index that was introduced well over a halfcentury ago for use in wage negotiations. As new uses were developed for
the CPI in recent years, the need for a broader and more representative index
became apparent. The all urban consumer index (cpi- u ) introduced in 1978
is representative o f the 1972-73 buying habits of about 80 percent of the
noninstitutional population of the United States at that time, compared with
40 percent represented in the cpi- w . In addition to wage earners and clerical
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The cpi is based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, fuel, drugs, trans
portation fares, doctors’ and dentists’ fees, and other goods and services
that people buy for day-to-day living. The quantity and quality o f these
items are kept essentially unchanged between major revisions so that only
price changes will be measured. All taxes directly associated with the
purchase and use o f items are included in the index.
Data collected from more than 24,000 retail establishments and 24,000
tenants in 85 urban areas across the country are used to develop the “U .S.
city average.” Separate estimates for 28 major urban centers are presented
in table 31. The areas listed are as indicated in footnote 1 to the table. The
area indexes measure only the average change in prices for each area since
the base period, and do not indicate differences in the level of prices among
cities.
Notes on the data
In January 1983, the Bureau changed the way in which homeownership
costs are measured for the cpi- u . A rental equivalence method replaced the
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MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
August 1986 •
Current Labor Statistics
asset-price approach to homeownership costs for that series. In January
1985, the same change was made in the cpi- w . The central purpose o f the
change was to separate shelter costs from the investment component of
homeownership so that the index would reflect only the cost o f shelter
services provided by owner-occupied homes.
Additional sources of information
For a discussion o f the general method for computing the
cpi ,
see
manufacturing sectors; a shift from a commodity to an industry orientation;
the exclusion o f imports from, and the inclusion of exports in, the survey
universe; and the respecification o f commodities priced to conform to
Bureau o f the Census definitions. These and other changes have been
phased in gradually since 1978. The result is a system of indexes that is
easier to use in conjunction with data on wages, productivity, and employ
ment and other series that are organized in terms of the Standard Industrial
Classification and the Census product class designations.
bls
Handbook of Methods, Volume II, The Consumer Price Index, Bulletin
Additional sources of information
2 1 3 4 -2 (Bureau o f Labor Statistics, 1984). The recent change in the mea
surement o f homeownership costs is discussed in Robert Gillingham and
Walter Lane, “Changing the treatment o f shelter costs for homeowners in
the CPI,” Monthly Ixibor Review, June 1982, pp. 9 -1 4 .
Additional detailed cpi data and regular analyses o f consumer price
changes are provided in the c p i Detailed Report, a monthly publication of
the Bureau. Historical data for the overall cpi and for selected groupings
may be found in the Handbook o f Labor Statistics, Bulletin 2217 (Bureau
o f Labor Statistics, 1985).
For a discussion o f the methodology for computing Producer Price In
dexes, see b l s Handbook of Methods, Bulletin 2134-1 (Bureau o f Labor
Statistics, 1982), chapter 7.
Additional detailed data and analyses o f price changes are provided
monthly in Producer Price Indexes. Selected historical data may be found
in the Handbook o f Labor Statistics, Bulletin 2217 (Bureau o f Labor
Statistics, 1985).
International price indexes
Producer price indexes
Description of the series
Producer Price Indexes (ppi) measure average changes in prices re
ceived in primary markets o f the United States by producers o f commodi
ties in all stages o f processing. The sample used for calculating these
indexes currently contains about 3,200 commodities and about 60,000
quotations per month selected to represent the movement o f prices of all
commodities produced in the manufacturing, agriculture, forestry, fishing,
mining, gas and electricity, and public utilities sectors. The stage o f proc
essing structure o f Producer Price Indexes organizes products by class of
buyer and degree o f fabrication (that is, finished goods, intermediate
goods, and crude materials). The traditional commodity structure o f ppi
organizes products by similarity o f end-use or material composition.
To the extent possible, prices used in calculating Producer Price Indexes
apply to the first significant commercial transaction in the United States
from the production or central marketing point. Price data are generally
collected monthly, primarily by mail questionnaire. Most prices are ob
tained directly from producing companies on a voluntary and confidential
basis. Prices generally are reported for the Tuesday of the week containing
the 13th day o f the month.
Since January 1976, price changes for the various commodities have
been averaged together with implicit quantity weights representing their
importance in the total net selling value of all commodities as of 1972. The
detailed data are aggregated to obtain indexes for stage-of-processing
groupings, commodity groupings, durability-of-product groupings, and a
number o f special composite groups. All Producer Price Index data are
subject to revision 4 months after original publication.
Notes on the data
Beginning with the January 1986 issue, the Review is no longer present
ing tables o f Producer Price Indexes for commodity groupings, special
composite groups, or sic industries. However, these data will continue to
be presented in the Bureau’s monthly publication Producer Price Indexes.
The Bureau has completed the first major stage o f its comprehensive
overhaul o f the theory, methods, and procedures used to construct the
Producer Price Indexes. Changes include the replacement of judgment
sampling with probability sampling techniques; expansion to systematic
coverage o f the net output of virtually all industries in the mining and
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Description of the series
The bls International Price Program produces quarterly export and
import price indexes for nonmilitary goods traded between the United
States and the rest of the world. The export price index provides a measure
o f price change for all products sold by U .S. residents to foreign buyers.
(“Residents” is defined as in the national income accounts: it includes
corporations, businesses, and individuals but does not require the organiza
tions to be U .S. owned nor the individuals to have U .S. citizenship.) The
import price index provides a measure o f price change for goods purchased
from other countries by U .S . residents. With publication of an all-import
index in February 1983 and an all-export index in February 1984, all U .S.
merchandise imports and exports now are represented in these indexes. The
reference period for the indexes is 1977 = 100, unless otherwise indicated.
The product universe for both the import and export indexes includes raw
materials, agricultural products, semifinished manufactures, and finished
manufactures, including both capital and consumer goods. Price data for
these items are collected quarterly by mail questionnaire. In nearly all
cases, the data are collected directly from the exporter or importer, al
though in a few cases, prices are obtained from other sources.
To the extent possible, the data gathered refer to prices at the U .S. border
for exports and at either the foreign border or the U .S. border for imports.
For nearly all products, the prices refer to transactions completed during the
first 2 weeks of the third month of each calendar quarter— March, June,
September, and December. Survey respondents are asked to indicate all
discounts, allowances, and rebates applicable to the reported prices, so that
the price used in the calculation of the indexes is the actual price for which
the product was bought or sold.
In addition to general indexes o f prices for U .S. exports and imports,
indexes are also published for detailed product categories of exports and
imports. These categories are defined by the 4- and 5-digit level o f detail
o f the Standard Industrial Trade Classification System ( sitc). The calcula
tion of indexes by sitc category facilitates the comparison o f U .S. price
trends and sector production with similar data for other countries. Detailed
indexes are also computed and published on a Standard Industrial Classifi
cation (sic-based) basis, as well as by end-use class.
Notes on the data
The export and import price indexes are weighted indexes o f the
Laspeyeres type. Price relatives are assigned equal importance within each
weight category and are then aggregated to the s u e level. The values
assigned to each weight category are based on trade value figures compiled
by the Bureau o f the Census. The trade weights currently used to compute
both indexes relate to 1980.
Because a price index depends on the same items being priced from
period to period, it is necessary to recognize when a product’s specifica
tions or terms o f transaction have been modified. For this reason, the
Bureau’s quarterly questionnaire requests detailed descriptions of the phys
ical and functional characteristics o f the products being priced, as well as
information on the number o f units bought or sold, discounts, credit terms,
packaging, class o f buyer or seller, and so forth. When there are changes
in either the specifications or terms of transaction o f a product, the dollar
value o f each change is deleted from the total price change to obtain the
“pure” change. Once this value is determined, a linking procedure is
employed which allows for the continued repricing o f the item.
For the export price indexes, the preferred pricing basis is f.a.s. (free
alongside ship) U .S . port of exportation. When firms report export prices
f.o.b. (free on board), production point information is collected which
enables the Bureau to calculate a shipment cost to the port of exportation.
An attempt is made to collect two prices for imports. The first is the import
price f.o.b. at the foreign port of exportation, which is consistent with the
basis for valuation o f imports in the national accounts. The second is the
import price c.i.f. (cost, insurance, and freight) at the U .S. port o f impor
tation, which also includes the other costs associated with bringing the
product to the U .S. border. It does not, however, include duty charges.
Additional sources of information
For a discussion of the general method of computing International Price
Indexes, see b l s Handbook of Methods , Bulletin 2134-1 (Bureau o f Labor
Statistics, 1982), chapter 8.
Additional detailed data and analyses o f international price develop
ments are presented in the Bureau’s quarterly publication U.S. Import and
Export Price Indexes and in occasional Monthly Labor Review articles
prepared by bls analysts. Selected historical data may be found in the
Handbook of Labor Statistics, Bulletin 2217 (Bureau o f Labor Statistics,
1985).
PRODUCTIVITY DATA
(Tables 2; 42-47)
U. S. productivity and related data
Description of the series
The productivity measures relate real physical output to real input. As
such, they encompass a family o f measures which include single factor
input measures, such as output per unit of labor input (output per hour) or
output per unit o f capital input, as well as measures of multifactor produc
tivity (output per unit o f labor and capital inputs combined). The Bureau
indexes show the change in output relative to changes in the various inputs.
The measures cover the business, nonfarm business, manufacturing, and
nonfinancial corporate sectors.
Corresponding indexes of hourly compensation, unit labor costs, unit
nonlabor payments, and prices are also provided.
Unit profits include corporate profits and the value of inventory adjust
ments per unit o f output.
Hours of all persons are the total hours paid o f payroll workers, selfemployed persons, and unpaid family workers.
Capital services is the flow of services from the capital stock used in
production. It is developed from measures of the net stock of physical
assets— equipment, structures, land, and inventories— weighted by rental
prices for each type o f asset.
Labor and capital inputs combined are derived by combining changes
in labor and capital inputs with weights which represent each component’s
share of total output. The indexes for capital services and combined units
of labor and capital are based on changing weights which are averages of
the shares in the current and preceding year (the Tomquist index-number
formula).
Notes on the data
Definitions
Output per hour of all persons (labor productivity) is the value of
goods and services in constant prices produced per hour of labor input.
Output per unit of capital services (capital productivity) is the value of
goods and services in constant dollars produced per unit of capital services
input.
Multifactor productivity is the ratio output per unit o f labor and capital
inputs combined. Changes in this measure reflect changes in a number of
factors which affect the production process such as changes in technology,
shifts in the composition of the labor force, changes in capacity utilization,
research and development, skill and efforts of the work force, manage
ment, and so forth. Changes in the output per hour measures reflect the
impact o f these factors as well as the substitution of capital for labor.
Compensation per hour is the wages and salaries o f employees plus
employers’ contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans, and
the wages, salaries, and supplementary payments for the self-employed
(except for nonfinancial corporations in which there are no selfemployed)— the sum divided by hours paid for. Real compensation per
hour is compensation per hour deflated by the change in the Consumer
Price Index for All Urban Consumers.
Unit labor costs are the labor compensation costs expended in the
production o f a unit o f output and are derived by dividing compensation by
output. Unit nonlabor payments include profits, depreciation, interest,
and indirect taxes per unit of output. They are computed by subtracting
compensation o f all persons from current dollar value of output and divid
ing by output. Unit nonlabor costs contain all the components of unit
nonlabor payments except unit profits.
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Output measures for the business sector and the nonfarm businesss sector
exclude the constant dollar value o f owner-occupied housing, rest o f world,
households and institutions, and general government output from the con
stant dollar value o f gross national product. The measures are derived from
data supplied by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U .S . Department o f
Commerce, and the Federal Reserve Board. Quarterly manufacturing out
put indexes are adjusted by the Bureau o f Labor Statistics to annual esti
mates o f output (gross product originating) from the Bureau of Economic
Analysis. Compensation and hours data are developed from data o f the
Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau o f Economic Analysis.
The productivity and associated cost measures in tables 4 2 -4 4 describe
the relationship between output in real terms and the labor time and capital
services involved in its production. They show the changes from period to
period in the amount of goods and services produced per unit o f input.
Although these measures relate output to hours and capital services, they
do not measure the contributions of labor, capital, or any other specific
factor o f production. Rather, they reflect the joint effect of many influ
ences, including changes in technology; capital investment; level o f output;
utilization of capacity, energy, and materials; the organization o f produc
tion; managerial skill; and the characteristics and efforts of the work force.
Additional sources of information
Descriptions of methodology underlying the measurement of output per
hour and multifactor productivity are found in the b l s Handbook of Meth
ods, Bulletin 2134-1 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1982), chapter 13. His
torical data for selected industries are provided in the Bureau’s Handbook
of Labor Statistics, 1985, Bulletin 2217.
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MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
August 1986 •
Current Labor Statistics
International comparisons
Canadian figures by assuming that their hourly compensation is equal to the
average for wage and salary employees.
Description of the series
Notes on the data
Comparative measures of labor force, employment, and unemployment
(tables 45 and 46) are prepared regularly for the United States, Canada,
Australia, Japan, France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, the Netherlands,
and Sweden. Unemployment rates, approximating U .S. concepts, are pre
pared monthly for most of the countries; the other measures, annually.
The Bureau o f Labor Statistics also prepares international comparisons
o f manufacturing labor productivity and labor costs (table 47) that cover the
United States and 11 foreign countries— those listed above plus Belgium
and Norway. These measures are limited to trend comparisons; that is,
intercountry series o f changes over time, rather than level comparisons
because reliable international comparisons of the levels of manufacturing
are unavailable. The U .S. measures are described in the notes on U .S.
productivity measurement; the measures for foreign countries are compiled
from various national and international data sources.
Definitions
Output measures are constant value output (value added) from the
national accounts o f each country, except for those for Japan prior to 1970
and for the Netherlands for 1969 forward, which are indexes of industrial
production. The national accounting methods for measuring real output
differ considerably among the 12 countries, but the use of different proce
dures does not, in itself, connote lack o f comparability— rather, it reflects
differences among countries in the availability and reliability of underlying
data series.
Hours and compensation measures refer to all employed persons in
cluding the self-employed in the United States and Canada, and to all wage
and salary employees in the other countries. Hours refer to hours paid in
the United States, hours worked in the other countries. Compensation
(labor costs) includes not only all payments made directly to employees
and employer expenditures for social insurance and private benefit plans,
but changes in significant employment or payroll taxes that are not compen
sation to employees but are labor costs to employers (France, Sweden, and
the United Kingdom). Self-employed workers are included in the U .S. and
The data for the foreign countries in tables 45 and 46 have been adjusted,
where necessary, for greater comparability with U .S. definitions o f em
ployment and unemployment. The adjusted statistics have been adapted to
the age at which compulsory schooling ends in each country. Therefore, the
adjusted statistics relate to the civilian population age 16 and over in the
United States, France, and Sweden, and from 1973 forward, Great Britain;
15 and over in Canada, Australia, Japan, Germany, and the Netherlands;
and 14 and over in Italy. Prior to 1973, the data for Great Britain related
to persons age 15 and over. The institutional population is included in the
denominator of the labor force participation rates and employmentpopulation ratios for Japan and Germany.
For most o f the countries in table 47, the measures refer to total manu
facturing as defined by the International Standard Industrial Classification.
However, the measures for France (beginning 1959), Italy (beginning
1970), and the United Kingdom (beginning 1976) refer to manufacturing
and mining less energy-related products. For all countries, manufacturing
includes the activities of government enterprises.
In addition, for all countries, preliminary estimates for recent years are
generally based on current indicators o f manufacturing output, employment
and hours, and hourly compensation until national accounts and other
statistics used for the long-term measures become available.
Additional sources of information
For further information, see International Comparisons of Unemploy
ment, Bulletin 1979 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1978), Appendix B and
Supplements to Appendix B. Additional detail is also found in the b l s
(Bureau of Labor Statistics,
1982), chapter 16. Additional international comparison statistics are avail
able in the Handbook o f Labor Statistics , Bulletin 2217 (Bureau o f Labor
Statistics, 1985). The most recent statistics are presented and analyzed
annually in the Monthly Labor Review , typically in the December issue
(for the previous year) and in February.
Handbook of Methods , Bulletin 2134-1
OCCUPATIONAL INJURY AND ILLNESS DATA
(Table 48)
Description of the series
The Annual Survey o f Occupational Injuries and Illnesses is designed to
collect data on injuries and illnesses based on records which employers in
the following industries maintain under the Occupational Safety and Health
Act o f 1970: agriculture, forestry, and fishing; oil and gas extraction;
construction; manufacturing; transportation and public utilities; wholesale
and retail trade; finance, insurance, and real estate; and services. Excluded
from the survey are self-employed individuals, farmers with fewer than 11
employees, employers regulated by other Federal safety and health laws,
and Federal, State, and local government agencies.
Because the survey is a Federal-State cooperative program and the data
must meet the needs o f participating State agencies, an independent sam
ple is selected for each State. The sample is selected to represent all pri
vate industries in the States and territories. The sample size for the
survey is dependent upon (1) the characteristics for which estimates are
needed; (2) the industries for which estimates are desired; (3) the charac
teristics o f the population being sampled; (4) the target reliability o f the
estimates; and (5) the survey design employed.
While there are many characteristics upon which the sample design could
be based, the total recorded case incidence rate is used because it is one of
the most important characteristics and the least variable; therefore, it re
quires the smallest sample size.
The survey is based on stratified random sampling with a Neyman
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allocation and a ratio estimator. The characteristics used to stratify the
establishments are the Standard Industrial Classification (sic) code and size
of employment.
Definitions
Recordable occupational injuries and illnesses are: (1) occupational
deaths, regardless o f the time between injury and death, or the length o f the
illness; or (2) nonfatal occupational illnesses; or (3) nonfatal occupational
injuries which involve one or more of the following: loss of consciousness,
restriction of work or motion, transfer to another job, or medical treatment
(other than first aid).
Occupational injury is any injury such as a cut, fracture, sprain, ampu
tation, and so forth, which results from a work accident or from exposure
involving a single incident in the work environment.
Occupational illness is an abnormal condition or disorder, other than
one resulting from an occupational injury, caused by exposure to environ
mental factors associated with employment. It includes acute and chronic
illnesses or disease which may be caused by inhalation, absorption, inges
tion, or direct contact.
Lost workday cases are cases which involve days away from work, or
days o f restricted work activity, or both.
Lost workday cases involving restricted work activity are those cases
which result in restricted work activity only.
Lost workdays away from work are the number of workdays (consec
utive or not) on which the employee would have worked but could not
because o f occupational injury or illness.
Lost workdays— restricted work activity are the number o f workdays
(consecutive or not) on which, because of injury or illness: (1) the em
ployee was assigned to another job on a temporary basis; or (2) the em
ployee worked at a permanent job less than full time; or (3) the employee
worked at a permanently assigned job but could not perform all duties
normally connected with it.
Comparable data for individual States are available from the bls Office
of Occupational Safety and Health Statistics.
Mining and railroad data are furnished to bls by the Mine Safety and
Health Administration and the Federal Railroad Administration, respec
tively. Data from these organizations are included in bls and State publica
tions. Federal employee experience is compiled and published by the Occu
pational Safety and Health Administration. Data on State and local
government employees are collected by about half of the States and territo
ries; these data are not compiled nationally.
The number of days away from work or days of restricted work
activity does not include the day of injury or onset of illness or any days
on which the employee would not have worked even though able to work.
Incidence rates represent the number o f injuries and/or illnesses or lost
workdays per 100 full-time workers.
Notes on the data
Estimates are made for industries and employment-size classes and for
severity classification: fatalities, lost workday cases, and nonfatal cases
without lost workdays. Lost workday cases are separated into those where
the employee would have worked but could not and those in which work
activity was restricted. Estimates o f the number o f cases and the number of
days lost are made for both categories.
Most o f the estimates are in the form o f incidence rates, defined as the
number o f injuries and illnesses, or lost workdays, per 100 full-time em
ployees. For this purpose, 200,000 employee hours represent 100 em
ployee years (2,000 hours per employee). Only a few of the available
measures are included in the Handbook of Labor Statistics. Full detail is
presented in the annual bulletin, Occupational Injuries and Illnesses in the
United States, by Industry.
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Additional sources of information
The Supplementary Data System provides detailed information describ
ing various factors associated with work-related injuries and illnesses.
These data are obtained from information reported by employers to State
workers’ compensation agencies. The Work Injury Report program exam
ines selected types o f accidents through an employee survey which focuses
on the circumstances surrounding the injury. These data are not included
in the Handbook o f Labor Statistics but are available from the BLS Office
of Occupational Safety and Health Statistics.
The definitions of occupational injuries and illnesses and lost workdays
are from Recordkeeping Requirements under the Occupational Safety and
Health Act of 1970 . For additional data, see Occupational Injuries and
Illnesses in the United States, by Industry, annual Bureau o f Labor
Statistics bulletin; BLS Handbook o f Methods, Bulletin 2134-1 (Bureau of
Labor Statistics, 1982), chapter 17; Handbook of Labor Statistics, Bulletin
2217 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1985), pp. 411-14; annual reports in the
Monthly Labor Review, and annual U .S. Department of Labor press
releases.
63
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
1.
August 1986 •
Current Labor Statistics:
Comparative Indicators
Labor market indicators
1984
1986
1985
1984
Selected indicators
1985
I
IV
III
II
I
IV
III
II
E m p lo y m e n t d a t a
Employment status of the civilian noninstitutionalized population
(household survey)'
Labor force participation ra te .......................................................
Employment-population ra tio .........................................................
Unemployment rate .......................................................................
M e n ..............................................................................................
16 to 24 years ..........................................................................
25 years and o v e r....................................................................
Women ........................................................................................
16 to 24 years ..........................................................................
25 years and o v e r....................................................................
Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and o ver....................................
64.8
60.1
7.3
7.1
14.1
5.4
7.6
13.1
6.0
2.0
64.7
60.0
7.3
7.1
14.2
5.4
7.5
13.0
6.0
2.0
64.7
60.1
7.2
7.0
14.0
5.3
7.4
12.7
5.9
2.0
64.9
60.4
7.0
6.9
14.0
5.2
7.2
13.1
5.5
1.9
65.1
60.5
7.1
6.8
13.3
5.3
7.3
13.2
5.7
1.9
95,907
79,736
24,943
19,486
70,964
96,581
80,341
24,970
19,439
71,611
97,295
80,958
24,947
19,323
72,347
97,897
81,414
24,866
19,241
73,031
98,668
82,069
24,937
19,261
73,731
99,403
82,731
25,028
19,284
74,375
35.1
40.5
3.4
35.0
40.4
3.3
34.9
40.4
3.2
34.9
40.6
3.3
34.9
40.8
3.5
34.9
40.7
3.4
.7
.8
.7
1.0
.2
1.6
1.3
.6
1.8
3.4
.6
.6
.6
.5
.7
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.0
.6
1.0
.8
1.4
.5
.6
1.0
1.2
64.4
59.5
7.5
7.4
14.4
5.7
7.6
13.3
6.0
2.4
64.8
60.1
7.2
7.0
14.1
5.3
7.4
13.0
5.9
2.0
64.5
59.6
7.5
7.4
14.3
5.7
7.6
13.5
5.9
2.5
64.4
59.7
7.4
7.3
14.5
5.5
7.6
13.1
6.0
2.3
Total .................................................................................................
Private sector .................................................................................
Goods-producing............................................................................
Manufacturing..............................................................................
Service-producing ..........................................................................
94,496
78,472
24,727
19,378
69,769
97,614
81,199
24,930
19,314
72,684
94,064
78,096
24,690
19,381
69,374
94,977
78,914
24,891
19,489
70,086
Average hours:
Private sector .................................................................................
Manufacturing ...........................................................................
Overtime..................................................................................
35.2
40.7
3.4
34.9
40.5
3.3
35.2
40.8
3.5
35.1
40.6
3.3
.8
.9
.9
1.0
.4
1.3
.8
.9
.7
3.5
1.2
1.3
1.1
1.4
1.0
1.3
1.2
1.5
1.0
1.2
.9
1.0
.7
.9
1.1
1.3
.7
1.6
64.5
59.8
7.2
7.1
13.8
5.4
7.5
12.9
5.9
2.1
Employment, nonagricultural (payroll data):1, 2
E m p lo y m e n t C o s t In d e x
Percent change in the ECI, compensation:3
All workers (excluding farm, household, and Federal workers) .....
Private industry workers ...............................................................
Goods-producing4 .....................................................................
Servicing-producing4 .................................................................
State and local government workers...........................................
Workers by bargaining status (private industry)
Union.............................................................................................
Nonunion ......................................................................................
1 Quarterly data seasonally adjusted.
2 Data for final quarter are preliminary.3 Quarterly changes calculated using the last month of each quarter.
Digitized for64
FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
“
4 Goods-producing industries include mining, construction, and manufacturing. Serviceproducing industries include all other private sector industries.
- Data not available.
2.
Annual and quarterly percent changes in compensation, prices, and productivity
1984
Selected measures
1984
II
C o m p e n s a t io n d a ta :
1986
1985
1985
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
2
Employment Cost Index-Compensation (wages, salaries,
benefits)
Civilian nonfarm ..........................................................................
Private nonfarm .........................................................................
Employment Cost Index-W ages and Salaries
Civilian nonfarm ..........................................................................
Private nonfarm .........................................................................
-
-
0 .8
1.3
1.2
1.3
0 .7
1.6
0 .6
1.1
-
-
.9
.8
1.3
1.2
.8
1.3
.6
1.1
-
-
.8
1.3
1.2
1.2
.9
1.7
.6
1.0
-
-
.9
.8
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.3
.6
1.0
Consumer Price Index (All urban consumers): All ite m s ......
4.0
3.8
Producer Price Index
Finished g o o d s ............................................................................
Finished consumer g o o d s ........................................................
Capital equipment .....................................................................
Intermediate materials, supplies, components ......................
Crude m ate rials...........................................................................
1.7
1.6
1.8
1.3
1.8
1.5
2.7
-.3
-5.6
P r ic e d a t a 1
U.S. Export Price In d e x ...............................................................
U.S. Import Price In d e x ...............................................................
-1 .6
1.1
1.2
-.2
.3
-.5
1.0
.9
-.4
.9
- 1 .4
.0
.7
2 .5
-3 .1
-.3
-.5
.8
-.3
.7
- 1 .4
2 .5
-4 .0
.5
-.5
1.1
1.3
.4
-1 .4
2 .5
.2
.6
-.4
-.1
-.4
.2
-.5
.4
- 3 .0
-1 .7
-2 .0
-1 .2
-3 .1
-2 .1
-4.5
4 .3
-7 .7
_
.
_
-
-
.
-
-
.7
1.1
-
-
P r o d u c t iv it y d a t a 1
Output per hour of all persons:
Business s e c to r.........................................................................
Nonfarm business s e c to r.........................................................
Nonfinancial corporations 3 ......................................................
4 .0
.2
4 .5
1.0
.0
1.3
.7
2.1
-4 .0
2 .7
3 .0
-.6
3 .9
-.5
-.5
1.1
-.2
.5
-4 .7
3 .6
4 .2
-.4
5 .0
-.8
-.3
-.2
-1 .1
3.2
-2 .3
-.2
1 Annual changes are December-to-December change. Quarterly changes
are calculated using the last month of each quarter. Compensation and Price
data are not seasonally adjusted and the price data are not compounded.
Productivity data are seasonally adjusted.
3.
2 Excludes Federal and private household workers,
3 Output per hour of all employees,
- Data not available.
Alternative measures of wage and compensation changes
Quarterly average
Components
IV
Average hourly compensation:’
All persons, business s e c to r..................................................
All employees, nonfarm business s e c to r.............................
Hourly earnings Index:2
All private n on farm ...................................................................
Employment Cost Index-compensation:
Civilian nonfarm 3 .....................................................................
Private nonfarm .....................................................................
U n io n .....................................................................................
N onunion..............................................................................
State and local governm ents..............................................
Employment Cost Index-wages and salaries:
Civilian nonfarm3 ......................................................................
Private nonfarm .....................................................................
U n io n .....................................................................................
N onunion............................................................................. .
State and local gove rnm ents................................................
Total effective wage adjustments4 ................................................
From current settlem ents........................................................
From prior settle m e n ts ............................................................
From cost-of-living provision...................................................
Negotiated wage adjustments from settlements4
First-year adjustm en ts.............................................................
Annual rate over life of c o n tra c t...........................................
Negotiated wage and benefit adjustments from settlements:5
First-year ad ju stm e n t...............................................................
Annual rate over life of c o n tra c t............................................
I
II
III
IV
I
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
3.1
3.2
4.8
4.7
4.4
3.8
4.2
2.8
3.4
3.2
1.4
2.2
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.7
4.1
3.8
4.1
3.6
4.2
3.7
3.4
3.0
1.2
1.3
1.1
1.3
1.0
1.3
1.2
.7
1.6
1.2
0.7
.8
.6
1.0
.2
1.6
1.3
.8
1.4
3.4
0.6
.6
.5
.6
.7
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.2
1.0
5.2
4.9
4.3
5.2
6.6
4.8
4.4
3.5
4.9
6.3
4.6
4.2
3.1
4.9
6.1
4.9
4.7
3.2
5.4
6.0
4.3
3.9
2.6
4.6
5.7
4.1
3.8
2.9
4.2
5.5
1.2
1.2
.9
1.3
.8
.7
.3
.2
.2
1.2
1.2
.7
1.4
1.0
.7
.1
.6
.1
.9
1.1
1.1
1.1
.2
.8
.2
.5
.1
1.7
1.3
.9
1.5
3.5
1.2
.2
.5
.4
.6
.6
.5
.6
.8
.5
.1
.2
.1
1.0
1.0
.7
1.1
1.0
.6
.0
.4
.2
4.5
4.1
3.4
4.5
5.9
3.7
.8
2.0
.9
4.4
4.1
3.0
4.6
5.6
3.6
.7
2.2
.7
4.5
4.3
3.4
4.8
5.5
3.5
.9
1.9
.7
5.0
4.8
3.6
5.4
5.6
3.5
.9
1.8
.8
4.4
4.1
3.1
4.6
5.6
3.3
.7
1.8
.7
4.2
3.9
3.2
4.3
5.5
3.1
.6
1.7
.8
2.3
1.5
3.3
3.2
2.5
2.8
2.0
3.1
2.1
1.9
.8
1.6
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.3
2.7
2.0
2.5
3.7
2.0
3.6
2.7
3.5
3.4
2.0
3.0
2.0
1.4
.3
1.2
3.6
2.8
3.4
2.6
3.4
2.7
3.1
2.7
2.6
2.7
2.3
2.6
Seasonally adjusted.
Production or nonsupervisory workers.
Excludes Federal and household workers.
Limited to major collective bargaining units of 1,000 workers or more. The
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Four quarters ended in~
1985
most recent data are preliminary.
5 Limited to major collective bargaining units of 5,000 workers or more. The
most recent data are preliminary.
- Data not available.
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
4.
August 1986 •
Current Labor Statistics:
Employment Data
Employment status of the total population, by sex, monthly data seasonally adjusted
(Numbers in thousands)
Annual average
1985
1984
Sept.
1986
Employment status
1985
June
July
Aug.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
TOTAL
Noninstitutional population 1, 2 ......
Labor force2 ..................................
Participation rate 3 ................
Total employed 2 .......................
Employment-population
ratio 4 ...................................
Resident Armed Forces 1 .......
Civilian employed ....................
Agriculture ............................
Nonagricultural industries.....
Unemployed...............................
Unemployment rate 5 ...........
Not in labor force ........................
178,080
115,241
64.7
106,702
179,912
117,167
65.1
108,856
179,798
116,726
64.9
108,303
179,967
116,976
65.0
108,575
180,131
117,069
65.0
108,936
180,304
117,522
65.2
109,251
180,470
117,814
65.3
109,513
180,642
117,832
65.2
109,671
180,810 181,361
117,927 '118,477
65.3
65.2
109,904 110,646
181,512
118,779
65.4
110,252
181,678
118,900
65.4
110,481
181,843
118,929
65.4
110,587
181,998
119,351
65.6
110,797
182,183
119,796
65.8
111,353
59.9
1,697
105,005
3,321
101,685
8,539
7.4
62,839
60.5
1,706
107,150
3,179
103,971
8,312
7.1
62,744
60.2
1,702
106,601
3,140
103,461
8,423
7.2
63,072
60.3
1,704
106,871
3,120
103,751
8,401
7.2
62,991
60.5
1,726
107,210
3,095
104,115
8,133
6.9
63,062
60.6
1,732
107,519
3,017
104,502
8,271
7.0
62,782
60.7
1,700
107,813
3,058
104,755
8,301
7.0
62,656
60.7
1,702
107,969
3,070
104,899
8,161
6.9
62,810
60.8
1,698
108,206
3,151
105,055
8,023
6.8
62,883
61.0
1,691
108,955
3,299
105,655
7,831
6.6
62,885
60.7
1,691
108,561
3,096
105,465
8,527
7.2
62,733
60.8
1,693
108,788
3,285
105,503
8,419
7.1
62,778
60.8
1,695
108,892
3,222
105,670
8,342
7.0
62,914
60.9
1,687
109,110
3,160
105,950
8,554
7.2
62,647
61.1
1,680
109,673
3,165
106,508
8,443
7.0
62,387
85,156
65,386
76.8
60,642
86,025
65,967
76.7
61,447
85,970
65,808
76.5
61,175
86,052
65,884
76.6
61,273
86,132
65,945
76.6
61,510
86,217
66,074
76.6
61,629
86,293
66,227
76.7
61,656
86,374
66,176
76.6
61,731
86,459
66,139
76.5
61,793
86,882
66,679
76.7
62,458
86,954
66,838
76.9
62,243
87,035
66,864
76.8
62,288
87,120
66,757
76.6
62,254
87,195
66,943
76.8
62,190
87,288
66,964
76.7
62,322
71.2
1,551
59,091
4,744
7.3
71.4
1,556
59,891
4,521
6.9
71.2
1,552
59,623
4,633
7.0
71.2
1,554
59,719
4,611
7.0
71.4
1,574
59,936
4,435
6.7
71.5
1,580
60,049
4,445
6.7
71.4
1,551
60,105
4,571
6.9
71.5
1,552
60,179
4,445
6.7
71.5
1,549
60,244
4,346
6.6
71.9
1,539
60,919
4,221
6.3
71.6
1,539
60,704
4,595
6.9
71.6
1,540
60,748
4,577
6.8
71.5
1,541
60,713
4,503
6.7
71.3
1,533
60,657
4,754
7.1
71.4
1,525
60,797
4,642
6.9
92,924
49,855
53.7
46,061
93,886
51,200
54.5
47,409
93,828
50,918
54.3
47,128
93,915
51,092
54.4
47,302
93,999
51,124
54.4
47,426
94,087
51,448
54.7
47,622
94,177
51,587
54.8
47,857
94,266
51,655
54.8
47,939
94,351
51,788
54.9
48,111
94,479
51,797
54.8
48,187
94,558
51,941
54.9
48,009
94,643
52,036
55.0
48,194
94,723
52,172
55.1
48,333
94,803
52,408
55.3
48,608
94,895
52,832
55.7
49,031
49.6
146
45,915
3,794
7.6
50.5
150
47,259
3,791
7.4
50.2
150
46,978
3,790
7.4
50.4
150
47,152
3,790
7.4
50.5
152
47,274
3,698
7.2
50.6
152
47,470
3,826
7.4
50.8
149
47,708
3,730
7.2
50.9
149
47,790
3,716
7.2
51.0
149
47,962
3,677
7.1
51.0
152
48,035
3,610
7.0
50.8
152
47,857
3,932
7.6
50.9
153
48,041
3,842
7.4
51.0
154
48,179
3,839
7.4
51.3
154
48,454
3,800
7.3
51.7
155
48,876
3,801
7.2
M e n , 16 y e a r s a n d o v e r
Noninstitutional population \ 2 .......
Labor force2 ..................................
Participation rate 3 ................
Total employed 2 .......................
Employment-population
ratio 4 ...................................
Resident Armed Forces 1 .......
Civilian employed ...................
Unemployed...............................
Unemployment rate 5 ...........
W o m e n , 16 y e a r s a n d o v e r
Noninstitutional population 2 .......
Labor force2 ..................................
Participation rate 3 ................
Total employed2 ........................
Employment-population
ratio 4 ...................................
Resident Armed Forces ' ......
Civilian employed ...................
Unemployed..............................
Unemployment rate 5 ..........
1 The population and Armed Forces figures are not adjusted for seasonal variation.
2 Includes members of the Armed Forces stationed in the United States.
3 Labor force as a percent of the noninstitutional population.
Digitized for
66 FRASER
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
4 Total employed as a percent of the noninstitutional population.
5 Unemployment as a percent of the labor force (including
Forces).
the resident Armed
5. Employment status of the civilian population, by sex, age, race and Hispanic origin, monthly data seasonally
adjusted
(Numbers in thousands)
Annual average
1985
1986
Employment status
1984
1985
June
July
176,383
113,544
64.4
105,005
178,206
115,461
64.8
107,150
178,096
115,024
64.6
106,601
178,263
115,272
64.7
106,871
178,405
115,343
64.7
107,210
178,572
115,790
64.8
107,519
178,770
116,114
65.0
107,813
178,940
116,130
64.9
107,969
179,112
116,229
64.9
108,206
59.5
8,539
7.5
62,839
60.1
8,312
7.2
62,744
59.9
8,423
7.3
63,072
60.0
8,401
7.3
62,991
60.1
8,133
7.1
63,062
60.2
8,271
7.1
62,782
60.3
8,301
7.1
62,656
60.3
8,161
7.0
62,810
76,219
59,701
78.3
55,769
77,195
60,277
78.1
56,562
77,135
60,246
78.1
56,384
77,243
60,158
77.9
56,403
77,306
60,269
78.0
56,636
77,389
60,407
78.1
56,751
77,498
60,526
78.1
56,849
73.2
2,418
53,351
3,932
6.6
73.3
2,278
54,284
3,715
6.2
73.1
2,260
54,124
3,862
6.4
73.0
2,230
54,173
3,755
6.2
73.3
2,231
54,405
3,633
6.0
73.3
2,171
54,580
3,656
6.1
85,429
45,900
53.7
42,793
86,506
47,283
54.7
44,154
86,477
47,185
54.6
44,033
86,575
47,190
54.5
44,070
86,652
47,340
54.6
44,197
50.1
595
42,198
3,107
6.8
51.0
596
43,558
3,129
6.6
50.9
572
43,461
3,152
6.7
50.9
596
43,474
3,120
6.6
14,735
7,943
53.9
6,444
14,506
7,901
54.5
6,434
14,483
7,593
52.4
6,184
43.7
309
6,135
1,499
18.9
44.4
305
6,129
1,468
18.6
152,347
98,492
64.6
92,120
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
179,670
116,786
65.0
108,955
179,821
117,088
65.1
108,561
179,985
117,207
65.1
108,788
180,148
117,234
65.1
108,892
180,311
117,664
65.3
109,110
180,503
118,116
65.4
109,673
60.4
8,023
6.9
62,883
60.6
7,831
6.7
62,885
60.4
8,527
7.3
62,733
60.4
8,419
7.2
62,778
60.4
8,342
7.1
62,914
60.5
8,554
7.3
62,647
60.8
8,443
7.1
62,387
77,566
60,553
78.1
56,897
77,651
60,548
78.0
56,982
78,101
61,212
78.4
57,706
78,171
61,183
78.3
57,384
78,236
61,268
78.3
57,459
78,309
61,053
78.0
57,391
78,387
61,208
78.1
57,312
78,484
61,387
78.2
57,560
73.4
2,188
54,661
3,677
6.1
73.4
2,210
54,687
3,656
6.0
73.4
2,278
54,704
3,566
5.9
73.9
2,349
55,356
3,507
5.7
73.4
2,258
55,127
3,799
6.2
73.4
2,411
55,048
3,809
6.2
73.3
2,347
55,043
3,663
6.0
73.1
2,278
55,034
3,897
6.4
73.3
2,320
55,241
3,827
6.2
86,727
47,558
54.8
44,363
86,810
47,663
54.9
44,609
86,901
47,713
54.9
44,656
86,988
47,870
55.0
44,882
87,112
47,895
55.0
44,980
87,185
47,921
55.0
44,710
87,263
47,952
55.0
44,797
87,355
48,107
55.1
45,009
87,444
48,409
55.4
45,284
87,547
48,805
55.7
45,701
51.0
581
43,616
3,143
6.6
51.2
557
43,806
3,195
6.7
51.4
609
44,000
3,054
6.4
51.4
591
44,065
3,057
6.4
51.6
597
44,285
2,988
6.2
51.6
696
44,284
2,915
6.1
51.3
593
44,117
3,211
6.7
51.3
598
44,199
3,155
6.6
51.5
576
44,433
3,097
6.4
51.8
609
44,675
3,125
6.5
52.2
565
45,136
3,104
6.4
14,445
7,924
54.9
6,398
14,448
7,734
53.5
6,377
14,456
7,825
54.1
6,405
14,463
7,925
54.8
6,355
14,472
7,864
54.3
6,416
14,474
7,811
54.0
6,342
14,458
7,678
53.1
6,269
14,465
7,984
55.2
6,467
14,485
7,987
55.1
6,532
14,484
8,074
55.7
6,492
14,480
8,047
55.6
6,515
14,472
7,923
54.7
6,411
42.7
308
5,876
1,409
18.6
44.3
294
6,104
1,526
19.3
44.1
283
6,094
1,357
17.5
44.3
289
6,116
1,420
18.1
43.9
261
6,094
1,570
19.8
44.3
269
6,147
1,448
18.4
43.8
276
6,066
1,469
18.8
43.4
254
6,015
1,409
18.4
44.7
246
6,221
1,517
19.0
45.1
276
6,256
1,455
18.2
44.8
298
6,194
1,582
19.6
45.0
274
6,241
1,532
19.0
44.3
280
6,131
1,512
19.1
153,679
99,926
65.0
93,736
153,597
99,527
64.8
93,132
153,717
99,705
64.9
93,378
153,819
99,817
64.9
93,684
153,938
100,179
65.1
94,055
154,082
100,533
65.2
94,369
154,203
100,478
65.2
94,507
154,327
100,533
65.1
94,585
154,784
100,961
65.2
95,165
154,889
101,232
65.4
94,803
155,005
101,248
65.3
94,958
155,122
101,249
65.3
95,081
155,236
101,515
65.4
95,180
155,376
101,975
65.6
95,731
60.5
6,372
6.5
61.0
6,191
6.2
60.6
6,395
6.4
60.7
6,327
6.3
60.9
6,133
6.1
61.1
6,124
6.1
61.2
6,164
6.1
61.3
5,971
5.9
61.3
5,948
5.9
61.5
5,796
5.7
61.2
6,429
6.4
61.3
6,290
6.2
61.3
6,168
6.1
61.3
6,335
6.2
61.6
6,244
6.1
19,348
12,033
62.2
10,119
19,664
12,364
62.9
10,501
19,646
12,317
62.7
10,538
19,675
12,354
62.8
10,499
19,700
12,289
62.4
10,560
19,728
12,378
62.7
10,500
19,761
12,412
62.8
10,566
19,790
12,457
62.9
10,518
19,819
12,522
63.2
10,657
19,837
12,548
63.3
10,737
19,863
12,545
63.2
10,690
19,889
12,656
63.6
10,791
19,916
12,740
64.0
10,856
19,943
12,781
64.1
10,889
19,974
12,754
63.9
10,825
52.3
1,914
15.9
53.4
1,864
15.1
53.6
1,779
14.4
53.4
1,855
15.0
53.6
1,729
14.1
53.2
1,878
15.2
53.5
1,846
14.9
53.1
1,939
15.6
53.8
1,865
14.9
54.1
1,810
14.4
53.8
1,855
14.8
54.3
1,865
14.7
54.5
1,884
14.8
54.6
1,892
14.8
54.2
1,929
15.1
Apr.
May
June
TO TAL
Civilian noninstitutional
population’ ....................................
Civilian labor fo rce .......................
Participation rate ..................
Employed ..................................
Employment-population
ratio2 ...................................
Unemployed...............................
Unemployment ra te ..............
Not in labor fo rc e ........................
M e n , 20 y e a rs an d o v e r
Civilian noninstitutional
population’ ....................................
Civilian labor fo rce .......................
Participation rate ..................
Employed ..................................
Employment-population
ratio2 ...................................
Agriculture...............................
Nonagricultural industries.......
Unemployed...............................
Unemployment rate..............
W o m e n , 2 0 y e a rs o n d o v e r
Civilian noninstitutional
population'....................................
Civilian labor fo rce .......................
Participation rate ..................
Employed ..................................
Employment-population
ratio2 ....................................
Agriculture...............................
Nonagricultural industries.......
Unemployed...............................
Unemployment rate..............
Both sexes, 16 to 19 years
Civilian noninstitutional
population’ ....................................
Civilian labor fo rce .......................
Participation rate ..................
Employed ..................................
Employment-population
ratio2 ...................................
Agriculture ...............................
Nonagricultural industries.......
Unemployed...............................
Unemployment ra te ..............
W h it e
Civilian noninstitutional
population'....................................
Civilian labor fo rce .......................
Participation rate ..................
Employed ..................................
Employment-population
ratio2 ...................................
Unemployed...............................
Unemployment ra te ..............
B la c k
Civilian noninstitutional
population'....................................
Civilian labor force.......................
Participation rate ..................
Employed ..................................
Employment-population
ratio2 ...................................
Unemployed...............................
Unemployment rate..............
See footnotes at end of table.
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
67
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
August 1986
Current Labor Statistics:
Employment Data
5. Continued— Employment status of the civilian population, by sex, age, race and Hispanic origin, monthly data seasonally
adjusted
(Numbers in thousands)
1985
Annual average
Employment status
1984
1985
11,478
7,451
64.9
6,651
11,915
7,698
64.6
6,888
57.9
800
10.7
57.8
811
10.5
July
Aug.
11,897
7,669
64.5
6,856
11,933
7,713
64.6
6,870
11,969
7,781
65.0
6,973
57.6
813
10.6
57.6
843
10.9
58.3
808
10.4
June
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
12,004
7,844
65.3
7,026
12,040
7,854
65.2
6,982
12,075
7,782
64.4
6,953
12,111
7,772
64.2
6,962
12,148
7,787
64.1
6,998
12,184
7,943
65.2
6,969
58.5
818
10.4
58.0
872
11.1
57.6
829
10.7
57.5
810
10.4
57.6
789
10.1
57.2
974
12.3
Sept.
Apr.
May
12,219
7,920
64.8
7,105
12,255
7,975
65.1
7,144
12,290
8,002
65.1
7,123
12,326
58.2
815
10.3
58.3
832
10.4
58.0
878
11.0
58.8
858
10.6
H is p a n ic o r ig in
Civilian noninstitutional
Civilian labor fo rce .......................
Participation rate ..................
Employed...................................
Employment-population
Unemployed...............................
Unemployment rate..............
1 The population figures are not seasonally adjusted.
2 Civilian employment as a percent of the civilian noninstitutional population.
NOTE: Detail for the above race and Hispanic-origin groups will not sum to totals
6.
8,110
65.8
7,251
in both the white and black population groups.
Selected employment indicators, monthly data seasonally adjusted
(In thousands)
1984
1985
1986
1985
Annual average
Selected categories
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
C H A R A C T E R IS T IC
Civilian employed, 16 years and
Married men, spouse present ..
Married women, spouse
Women who maintain families .
105,005
59,091
45,915
39,056
107,150
59,891
47,259
39,248
106,601
59,623
46,978
38,966
106,871
59,719
47,152
39,096
107,210
59,936
47,274
39,142
107,519
60,049
47,470
39,103
107,813
60,105
47,708
39,272
107,969
60,179
47,790
39,314
108,206
60,244
47,962
39,278
108,955
60,919
48,035
39,615
108,561
60,704
47,857
39,382
108,788
60,748
48,041
39,365
108,892
60,713
48,179
39,555
109,110
60,657
48,454
39,614
109,673
60,797
48,876
39,626
25,636
5,465
26,336
5,597
26,174
5,643
26,316
5,607
26,392
5,627
26,531
5,556
26,702
5,514
26,721
5,605
26,804
5,693
26,958
5,702
26,593
5,733
26,656
5,771
26,802
5,812
26,920
5,718
27,427
5,668
1,555
1,553
213
1,535
1,458
185
1,530
1,451
159
1,479
1,474
170
1,456
1,444
176
1,438
1,414
179
1,465
1,436
172
1,537
1,361
158
1,572
1,409
164
1,673
1,492
163
1,519
1,444
156
1,689
1,453
172
1,587
1,475
180
1,480
1,486
186
1,498
1,504
154
93,565
15,770
77,794
1,238
76,556
7,785
335
95,871
16,031
79,841
1,249
78,592
7,811
289
95,391
16,000
79,391
1,228
78,163
7,728
292
95,523
15,949
79,574
1,251
78,323
7,724
277
95,791
16,075
79,716
1,295
78,421
7,874
303
96,546
16,145
80,401
1,266
79,135
7,846
266
96,530
16,213
80,317
1,271
79,046
7,991
248
96,676
16,157
80,519
1,197
79,322
8,013
249
96,921
16,194
80,727
1,131
79,596
7,903
250
97,911
16,418
81,494
1,256
80,238
7,655
273
97,516
16,104
81,412
1,197
80,216
7,669
270
97,698
16,095
81,604
1,213
80,390
7,644
240
97,831
16,187
81,643
1,321
80,322
7,571
253
97,994
16,325
81,669
1,275
80,394
7,757
229
98,372
16,387
81,984
1,279
80,705
7,807
235
5,744
2,430
2,948
13,169
5,590
2,430
2,819
13,489
5,544
2,524
2,751
13,439
5,596
2,414
2,766
13,634
5,680
2,480
2,835
13,622
5,554
2,433
2,815
13,496
5,475
2,251
2,897
13,713
5,498
2,306
2,883
13,645
5,494
2,303
2,864
13,556
5,543
2,364
2,883
13,958
5,377
2,369
2,703
13,817
5,538
2,330
2,953
13,754
5,923
2,603
2,974
13,933
5,980
2,659
2,893
13,638
5,537
2,434
2,810
14,268
5,512
2,291
2,866
12,704
5,334
2,273
2,730
13,038
5,278
2,334
2,675
12,995
5,328
2,251
2,686
13,235
5,413
2,319
2,740
13,179
5,299
2,292
2,730
13,053
5,241
2,115
2,801
13,277
5,295
2,196
2,784
13,194
5,294
2,195
2,760
13,122
5,275
2,208
2,776
13,441
5,158
2,224
2,636
13,369
5,301
2,159
2,861
13,285
5,621
2,430
2,849
13,599
5,673
2,523
2,790
13,191
5,320
2,308
2,724
13,779
M A J O R IN D U S T R Y A N D C L A S S
OF W ORKER
Agriculture:
Wage and salary workers .......
Self-employed workers............
Unpaid family workers.............
Nonagricultural industries:
Wage and salary workers.......
Government ..........................
Private industries...................
Private households.............
O the r..................................
Self-employed workers............
Unpaid family workers.............
PERSONS A T W O RK
P A R T T IM E 1
All industries:
Part time for economic reasons
Slack work ...............................
Could only find part-time work
Voluntary part tim e .....................
Nonagricultural industries:
Part time for economic reasons
Slack work ..............................
Could only find part-time work
Voluntary part tim e ....................
1 Excludes persons “ with a job but not at work” during the survey period for such reasons as vacation, illness, or industrial disputes.
Digitized for68
FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
7.
Selected unemployment indicators, monthly data seasonally adjusted
(Unemployment rates)
Annual average
1985
1986
Selected categories
1984
1985
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
Total, all civilian workers.........................................
Both sexes, 16 to 19 years................................
Men, 20 years and over ....................................
Women, 20 years and over................................
7.5
18.9
6.6
6.8
7.2
18.6
6.2
6.6
7.3
18.6
6.4
6.7
7.3
19.3
6.2
6.6
7.1
17.5
6.0
6.6
7.1
18.1
6.1
6.7
7.1
19.8
6.1
6.4
7.0
18.4
6.0
6.4
6.9
18.8
5.9
6.2
6.7
18.4
5.7
6.1
7.3
19.0
6.2
6.7
7.2
18.2
6.2
6.6
7.1
19.6
6.0
6.4
7.3
19.0
6.4
6.5
7.1
19.1
6.2
6.4
White, total .......................................................
Both sexes, 16 to 19 years.............................
Men, 16 to 19 years ..................................
Women, 16 to 19 years..............................
Men, 20 years and over ..................................
Women, 20 years and o ver.............................
6.5
16.0
16.8
15.2
5.7
5.8
6.2
15.7
16.5
14.8
5.4
5.7
6.4
16.0
16.7
15.2
5.7
5.8
6.3
16.1
17.1
15.0
5.6
5.7
6.1
15.2
17.2
13.0
5.3
5.7
6.1
15.3
16.2
14.4
5.2
5.7
6.1
17.0
18.5
15.3
5.2
5.5
5.9
15.5
15.8
15.1
5.2
5.4
5.9
15.9
16.2
15.5
5.1
5.4
5.7
14.9
14.7
15.1
5.0
5.3
6.4
16.2
16.5
15.8
5.4
5.9
6.2
14.5
15.3
13.7
5.5
5.8
6.1
16.4
17.2
15.6
5.2
5.5
6.2
16.0
17.3
14.7
5.5
5.5
6.1
16.2
17.8
14.4
5.4
5.4
Black, total .........................................................
Both sexes, 16 to 19 years.............................
Men, 16 to 19 years ..................................
Women, 16 to 19 years..............................
Men, 20 years and over ..................................
Women, 20 years and over.............................
15.9
42.7
42.7
42.6
14.3
13.5
15.1
40.2
41.0
39.2
13.2
13.1
14.4
39.5
41.0
37.8
12.5
12.7
15.0
41.2
43.1
39.0
12.8
13.1
14.1
35.3
34.9
35.9
11.9
13.1
15.2
38.8
41.1
36.1
13.3
13.5
14.9
39.7
41.0
38.2
13.7
12.1
15.6
40.8
45.2
36.0
13.7
13.6
14.9
41.6
41.0
42.3
13.1
12.6
14.4
41.9
41.3
42.4
12.7
12.0
14.8
39.1
38.7
39.5
13.3
12.5
14.7
43.7
44.1
43.4
12.6
12.2
14.8
42.6
41.4
43.7
12.6
12.5
14.8
40.8
40.8
40.8
12.7
12.8
15.1
40.2
38.5
41.9
13.3
12.8
Hispanic origin, to ta l...........................................
10.7
10.5
10.6
10.9
10.4
10.4
11.1
10.7
10.4
10.1
12.3
10.3
10.4
11.0
10.6
Married men, spouse present............................
Married women, spouse present.......................
Women who maintain families...........................
Full-time workers ................................................
Part-time workers ..........................................
Unemployed 15 weeks and over.......................
Labor force time lost' ........................................
4.6
5.7
10.3
7.2
9.3
2.4
8.6
4.3
5.6
10.4
6.8
9.3
2.0
8.1
4.6
5.8
9.9
6.9
9.5
2.0
8.2
4.4
5.7
10.3
7.0
9.4
2.0
8.2
4.1
5.4
10.8
6.8
9.0
2.0
8.1
4.3
5.6
11.3
6.8
9.3
2.0
8.1
4.2
5.3
10.4
6.8
9.6
2.0
7.9
4.3
5.5
10.0
6.7
8.8
1.9
7.9
4.3
5.3
9.4
6.6
9.0
1.9
7.8
4.3
5.1
9.9
6.4
8.4
1.8
7.6
4.5
5.5
9.9
6.9
9.4
2.0
8.1
4.5
5.6
10.1
6.9
9.1
1.9
8.1
4.2
5.3
9.4
6.7
9.6
1.8
8.1
4.5
5.4
10.2
7.0
9.2
1.9
8.3
4.5
5.2
10.1
6.7
9.1
2.0
8.1
7.4
10.0
14.3
7.5
7.2
7.8
5.5
8.0
5.9
4.5
13.5
7.2
9.5
13.1
7.7
7.6
7.8
5.1
7.6
5.6
3.9
13.2
7.3
10.9
13.5
7.7
7.9
7.5
5.3
7.7
5.7
3.9
12.5
7.3
9.9
13.4
7.9
7.9
7.9
5.7
7.6
5.6
4.0
14.0
7.1
8.6
13.1
7.8
7.9
7.6
4.5
7.7
5.5
3.9
14.0
7.2
8.9
13.6
7.7
7.7
7.8
5.3
7.8
5.5
3.8
13.3
7.1
7.7
13.5
7.5
7.3
7.8
5.1
7.7
5.4
3.9
12.9
7.0
7.3
13.4
7.7
7.6
7.8
5.1
7.5
5.4
3.6
12.5
6.9
10.3
12.6
7.3
7.3
7.3
5.0
7.6
5.3
3.8
10.6
6.7
10.9
12.9
7.0
7.0
7.1
4.3
7.2
5.2
3.4
10.9
7.2
9.2
13.2
7.2
7.4
7.0
5.3
7.8
5.9
3.8
14.3
7.2
10.4
13.0
7.2
6.8
7.7
6.1
7.6
5.7
4.0
11.9
7.2
12.8
12.0
6.8
6.8
6.8
5.6
8.1
5.9
3.5
13.4
7.3
13.7
13.3
7.5
7.3
7.7
5.3
8.1
5.5
3.7
15.8
7.1
17.6
12.1
7.3
7.1
7.5
5.5
7.7
5.4
3.6
13.2
C H A R A C T E R IS T IC
IN D U S T R Y
Nonagricultural private wage and salary workers ....
Mining.............................................................
Construction.......................................................
Manufacturing ....................................................
Durable goods..................................................
Nondurable g oods...........................................
Transportation and public utilities ......................
Wholesale and retail tra d e ..............................
Finance and service industries..........................
Government workers ........................................
Agricultural wage and salary workers .....................
' Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as a percent of potentially available labor force hours.
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69
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
8.
August 1986 •
Employment Data
Current Labor Statistics:
Unemployment rates by sex and age, monthly data seasonally adjusted
(Civilian workers)
Annual
average
Sex and age
Nov.
Oct.
Sept.
Aug.
July
June
1985
1984
19fÌ6
1985
June
May
Apr.
Mar.
Feb.
Jan.
Dec.
Total, 16 years and o v e r ............
16 to 24 y e a rs ..........................
16 to 19 y e a rs ........................
16 to 17 years .....................
18 to 19 y e a r s .....................
20 to 24 y e a rs ........................
25 years and o v e r....................
25 to 54 years ....................
55 years and o v e r .............
7.5
13.9
18.9
21.2
17.4
11.5
5.8
6.1
4.5
7.2
13.6
18.6
21.0
17.0
11.1
5.6
5.8
4.1
7.3
13.6
18.6
21.6
16.4
11.2
5.8
6.0
4.3
7.3
13.9
19.3
21.7
17.3
11.2
5.6
5.9
4.4
7.1
13.0
17.5
19.1
16.8
10.8
5.5
5.8
4.1
7.1
13.3
18.1
20.3
16.7
10.9
5.6
5.8
4.1
7.1
13.9
19.8
22.7
17.8
10.9
5.4
5.7
3.9
7.0
13.5
18.4
21.4
16.9
11.0
5.4
5.6
3.8
6.9
13.3
18.8
21.1
17.5
10.6
5.3
5.5
3.9
6.7
13.0
18.4
20.9
16.4
10.4
5.1
5.4
3.9
7.3
13.6
19.0
21.8
17.2
10.8
5.7
5.9
4.4
7.2
13.2
18.2
19.4
17.1
10.6
5.7
5.9
4.3
7.1
13.9
19.6
20.9
18.9
10.9
5.4
5.8
3.9
7.3
14.2
19.0
21.1
17.5
11.7
5.5
5.9
3.6
7.1
13.5
19.1
20.6
17.9
10.7
5.6
5.9
3.7
Men, 16 years and o v e r ......
16 to 24 years ....................
16 to 19 y e a rs .................
16 to 17 y e a rs ...............
18 to 19 y e a rs ..............
20 to 24 y e a rs .................
25 years and o v e r ..............
25 to 54 y e a rs ...............
55 years and o v e r........
7.4
14.4
19.6
21.9
18.3
11.9
5.7
5.9
4.6
7.0
14.1
19.5
21.9
17.9
11.4
5.3
5.6
4.1
7.2
14.2
19.2
23.2
16.4
11.7
5.6
5.8
4.4
7.2
14.6
20.5
22.1
18.7
11.6
5.4
5.6
4.6
6.9
13.8
19.6
21.9
18.1
10.9
5.3
5.6
3.8
6.9
13.8
19.3
20.7
18.3
11.0
5.3
5.5
4.0
7.1
14.6
21.5
24.0
19.9
11.1
5.3
5.5
4.1
6.9
13.9
19.4
20.9
18.7
11.2
5.2
5.4
4.0
6.7
13.5
19.3
21.6
18.0
10.6
5.1
5.4
3.9
6.5
12.8
18.2
20.9
16.2
10.3
5.0
5.3
3.9
7.0
13.6
19.3
23.2
16.6
10.7
5.5
5.7
4.4
7.0
13.6
18.9
20.0
17.8
11.0
5.5
5.7
4.3
6.9
14.5
20.2
21.2
19.7
11.6
5.2
5.5
3.9
7.3
15.0
20.4
21.6
19.6
12.2
5.4
5.8
3.8
7.1
14.0
20.1
19.4
20.4
11.0
5.5
5.8
4.1
Women, 16 years and over
16 to 24 y e a rs ..................
16 to 19 y e a r s ...............
16 to 17 years .............
18 to 19 years ............
20 to 24 years ...............
25 years and o v e r...........
25 to 54 years ............
55 years and o v e r .....
7.6
13.3
18.0
20.4
16.6
10.9
6.0
6.3
4.2
7.4
13.0
17.6
20.0
16.0
10.7
5.9
6.2
4.1
7.5
12.9
17.8
19.9
16.4
10.6
6.0
6.3
4.1
7.4
13.1
17.9
21.2
15.7
10.7
5.9
6.2
4.2
7.3
12.2
15.3
15.8
15.3
10.7
5.8
6.1
4.5
7.5
12.9
16.9
19.8
14.9
10.9
6.0
6.2
4.2
7.3
13.1
17.9
21.2
15.5
10.7
5.6
5.9
3.7
7.2
13.1
17.4
22.0
15.1
10.8
5.6
5.9
3.6
7.1
13.2
18.3
20.6
16.9
10.6
5.4
5.7
3.9
7.0
13.2
18.5
20.8
16.5
10.5
5.3
5.6
3.8
7.6
13.6
18.6
20.2
17.7
11.0
5.9
6.2
4.4
7.4
12.7
17.5
18.7
16.3
10.1
5.9
6.3
4.4
7.4
13.2
19.0
20.5
18.1
10.0
5.8
6.2
3.8
7.3
13.3
17.6
20.5
15.3
11.1
5.7
6.1
3.4
7.2
13.0
18.0
21.9
15.1
10.4
5.7
6.1
3.1
9.
Unemployed persons by reason for unemployment, monthly data seasonally adjusted
(Numbers in thousands)
June
May
Apr.
Mar.
Feb.
Jan.
Dec.
Oct.
Sept.
Aug.
July
1984
Job losers ..........
On layoff..........
Other job losers
Job leavers........
Reentrants .........
New entrants......
1986
1985
Annual average
Reason for unemployment
4,421
1,171
3,250
823
2,184
1,110
4,139
1,157
2,982
877
2,256
1,039
4,167
1,135
3,032
983
2,233
1,018
4,206
1,134
3,072
894
2,184
1,098
4,144
1,112
3,032
875
2,191
941
4,142
1,167
2,975
852
2,335
918
4,040
1,161
2,879
911
2,237
1,045
4,081
1,175
2,906
808
2,226
1,055
3,933
1,132
2,801
876
2,225
1,033
3,776
1,163
2,613
996
2,066
1,025
4,162
1,152
3,010
1,001
2,292
1,097
4,246
1,164
3,082
1,002
2,197
1,000
4,034
1,028
3,006
1,110
2,191
1,059
4,311
1,133
3,178
975
2,217
1,062
4,335
1,066
3,269
1,013
2,064
1,059
51.8
13.7
38.1
9.6
25.6
13.0
49.8
13.9
35.9
10.6
27.1
12.5
49.6
13.5
36.1
11.7
26.6
12.1
50.2
13.5
36.6
10.7
26.1
13.1
50.8
13.6
37.2
10.7
26.9
11.5
50.2
14.2
36.1
10.3
28.3
11.1
49.1
14.1
35.0
11.1
27.2
12.7
50.0
14.4
35.6
9.9
27.2
12.9
48.8
14.0
34.7
10.9
27.6
48.0
14.8
33.2
12.7
26.3
13.0
48.7
13.5
35.2
11.7
26.8
50.3
13.8
36.5
11.9
26.0
12.8
11.8
48.1
12.2
35.8
13.2
26.1
12.6
50.3
13.2
37.1
11.4
25.9
12.4
51.2
12.6
38.6
12.0
24.4
12.5
3.9
.7
1.9
3.6
3.6
.9
1.9
.9
3.6
3.6
.8
1.9
.8
3.6
.7
3.5
3.5
.7
1.9
.9
3.4
.8
1.9
.9
3.2
.9
3.6
.9
1.8
2.0
.9
.9
3.6
.9
1.9
.9
3.4
.9
1.9
.9
3.7
.8
1.9
.9
3.7
.9
1.7
.9
PERCENT O F UNEM PLO YED
Job losers...........
On layo ff..........
Other job losers
Job leavers.........
Reentrants.........
New entrants .....
12.8
PERCENT OF
C I V IL IA N L A B O R F O R C E
Job losers ....
Job leavers ..
Reentrants ...
New entrants
10.
.8
2.0
.9
1.0
.8
1.9
1.0
.8
1.9
.9
2.0
.8
Duration of unemployment, monthly data seasonally adjusted
(Numbers in thousands)
1984
1985
19 36
1985
Annual average
Weeks of unemployment
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
3,384
2,708
2,320
1,036
1,284
15.2
7.3
Less than 5 weeks ...........................................
5 to 14 weeks ..................................................
15 weeks and o ve r...........................................
15 to 26 weeks ..............................................
27 weeks and o v e r........................................
3,350
2,451
2,737
1,104
1,634
3,498
2,509
2,305
1,025
1,280
3,466
2,536
2,328
1,033
1,295
3,525
2,514
2,329
1,078
1,251
3,422
2,508
2,274
1,047
1,227
3,484
2,505
2,307
1,035
1,272
3,430
2,536
2,277
1,057
1,220
3,465
2,448
2,205
894
1,311
3,374
2,460
2,188
973
1,215
3,311
2,441
2,056
969
1,087
3,562
2,622
2,340
1,149
1,191
3,589
2,640
2,258
1,099
1,159
3,628
2,685
2,135
1,001
1,134
3,705
2,737
2,209
1,072
1,137
M e a n d u ra tio n in w e e k s ...............................................
18.2
7.9
15.6
6.8
15.5
6.8
15.5
7.1
15.5
7.2
15.5
6.9
15.4
7.0
15.7
6.9
15.4
6.9
14.9
6.8
15.3
6.9
14.4
6.8
14.3
6.5
14.4
6.6
M e d ia n d u ra tio n in w e e k s ...........................................
70
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11.
Unemployment rates of civilian workers by State, data not seasonally adjusted
May
1985
May
1986
8.2
9.4
6.6
8.1
6.6
92
10.7
6.3
7.8
6.1
Florida..........................................................
5.7
4.8
4.9
8.2
4.9
6.9
3.5
4.9
6.7
5.3
Indiana .........................................................
6.6
5.8
7.7
9.4
7.4
5.6
5.0
8.1
82
6.5
7.4
4.7
8.8
11.4
5.3
63
5.2
9.1
13.0
5.2
State
Alaska ..........................................................
California......................................................
State
Nebraska....................................................
New Jersey.................................................
Connecticut .................................................
New York....................................................
Ohio ............................................................
South Carolina............................................
Kentucky......................................................
Maine............................................................
Texas ..........................................................
Utah ............................................................
Vermont......................................................
Mississippi....................................................
4.2
3.4
9.8
5.2
9.7
5.8
3j
40
94
50
11.5
5.5
- Data not available.
NOTE: Some data in this table may differ from data
May
1985
May
1986
7.1
5.2
8.0
4.0
7.1
4.7
5.9
3.2
5.0
8.8
6.8
5.4
5.4
6.9
5.3
6.1
7.5
6.9
8.6
8.4
49
9.2
7.7
3.4
6.8
4.7
7.4
6.6
5.6
6.6
40
73
9.3
5.2
4.6
5.5
7.7
11.9
6.5
4.5
4.9
7.5
10.4
6.5
7.1
9.3
7.5
published elsewhere because of the continual updating of the
database.
12. Employment of workers on nonagricultural payrolls by State, data not seasonally adjusted
(In thousands)
State
May 1985
Apr. 1986
May 1986p
Alabama.................
Alaska ....................
Arizona...................
Arkansas............... .
California............... .
1,427.7
232.0
1,284.0
803.3
10,963.2
1,443.8
224.8
1,343.6
820.9
11,155.5
1,446.2
229.7
1,347.1
824.8
11,205.0
Colorado................
Connecticut ...........
Delaware................
District of Columbia
Florida...................
1,422.7
1,567.6
292.6
623.2
4,429.6
1,446.2
1,597.6
293.7
642.2
4,563.4
1,453.7
1,607.7
297.9
644.3
4,561.3
Georgia ..................
Hawaii....................
Idaho .....................
Illinois....................
Indiana ...................
2,563.0
423.6
337.0
4,778.9
2,188.7
2,617.9
428.9
332.7
4,767.0
2,234.9
2,629.4
429.7
334.6
4,790.2
2,256.2
Iow a.......................
Kansas ...................
Kentucky................
Louisiana................
Maine.....................
1,091.9
984.3
1,261.3
1,607.0
457.0
1,080.0
990.3
1,269.9
1,553.1
462.2
Maryland ................
Massachusetts......
Michigan.................
Minnesota..............
Mississippi..............
Missouri..................
Montana.................
1,892.1
2,935.2
3,512.1
1,882.2
839.6
2,111.6
281.3
1,913.7
2,966.0
3,558.7
1,876.5
849.9
2,138.6
275.3
May 1985
Apr. 1986
May 1986p
Nebraska....................................................
Nevada .......................................................
New Hampshire..........................................
656.0
447.0
461.0
652.4
458.3
479.8
661.9
462.7
485.1
New Jersey ................................................
New Mexico ................................................
New Y ork....................................................
North Carolina ............................................
North Dakota ..............................................
3,415.4
519.3
7,768.3
2,645.5
254.4
3,486.6
521.4
7,839.3
2,709.8
247.6
3,515.4
522.9
7,905.7
2,717.3
251.3
Ohio ............................................................
Oklahoma...................................................
Oregon........................................................
Pennsylvania...............................................
Rhode Island...............................................
4,404.3
1,191.0
1,028.6
4,745.6
428.6
4,481.6
1,161.2
1,040.7
4,788.2
424.9
4,533.0
1,162.2
1,053.3
4,827.5
430.9
South Carolina............................................
South Dakota..............................................
1,088.1 Tennessee .................................................
998.1 Texas ..........................................................
1,278.1 Utah ............................................................
1,543.9
472.4 Vermont......................................................
Virginia........................................................
1,932.1 Washington ................................................
2,987.4 West Virginia...............................................
3,591.2 Wisconsin...................................................
1,907.1
852.7 Wyoming.....................................................
2,163.9 Puerto Rico ................................................
278.0 Virgin Islands ..............................................
1,304.0
252.3
1,856.4
6,699.1
621.7
1,334.5
247.0
1,916.8
6,703.1
634.3
1,345.0
252.1
1,930.9
6,688.8
635.9
222.6
2,449.7
1,709.4
602.9
1,987.8
224.5
2,517.8
1,746.1
594.1
1,993.1
225.9
2,540.9
1,760.5
611.6
2,019.2
206.1
691.9
37.1
196.3
703.0
36.8
202.0
706.6
36.6
p = preliminary
NOTE: Some data in this table may differ from data published elsewhere
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
State
because of the continual updating of the database.
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
August 1986 •
Current Labor Statistics:
Employment Data
13. Employment of workers on nonagricultural payrolls by industry, monthly data seasonally adjusted
(In thousands)
Annual average
1985
1986
Industry
T O T A L ...................................................
P R IV A T E S E C T O R ............................
G O O D S P R O D U C IN G ..........................
M in in g .........................................................
Oil and gas extraction ................
C o n s t r u c t io n ..........................................
General building contractors......
M a n u f a c t u r i n g ........................................
Production w orkers.....................
D u r a b le g o o d s .....................................
Production w orkers....................
Lumber and wood products........
Furniture and fixtures...................
Stone, clay, and glass products ...
Primary metal industries ..............
Blast furnaces and basic steel
products......................................
Fabricated metal products...........
Machinery, except electrical........
Electrical and electronic
equipment....................................
Transportation equipment............
Motor vehicles and equipment ....
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing
industries....................................
1984
1985
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
Mayp
Junep
94,496
78,472
97,614
81,199
97,442
81,082
97,672
81,222
97,890
81,428
98,128
81,592
98,428
81,853
98,666
82,073
98,910
82,281
99,296
82,659
99,429
82,748
99,484
82,785
99,783
83,072
99,908
83,165
99,819
83,104
24,727
966
607
24,930
930
585
24,897
936
590
24,875
928
585
24,880
922
581
24,843
917
577
24,903
913
571
24,931
907
565
24,977
901
560
25,101
897
556
25,038
880
541
24,945
852
518
25,038
821
488
24,964
788
459
24,859
769
443
4,383
1,161
4,687
1,251
4,671
1,241
4,679
1,246
4,702
1,257
4,728
1,267
4,754
1,276
4,765
1,283
4,787
1,287
4,901
1,330
4,864
1,320
4,838
1,298
4,972
1,315
4,976
1,312
4,946
1,296
19,378
13,285
19,314
13,130
19,290
13,105
19,268
13,079
19,256
13,078
19,198
13,029
19,236
13,059
19,259
13,074
19,289
13,100
19,303
13,111
19,294
13,097
19,255
13,061
19,245
13,060
19,200
13,026
19,144
12,996
11,505
7,739
11,516
7,660
11,517
7,654
11,483
7,621
11,473
7,619
11,421
7,572
11,447
7,594
11,453
7,594
11,461
7,595
11,466
7,595
11,455
7,579
11,418
7,545
11,415
7,547
11,378
7,522
11,317
7,479
704
487
593
857
700
493
591
813
696
491
589
814
698
492
589
807
700
495
591
798
702
491
590
795
705
493
591
797
708
493
591
801
710
494
593
803
716
494
596
798
716
494
597
795
715
493
594
787
719
494
600
785
719
496
599
779
722
496
598
763
334
1,463
305
1,468
307
1,468
305
1,465
302
1,463
304
1,459
304
1,460
302
1,459
303
1,456
300
1,455
299
1,452
293
1,450
291
1,451
288
1,447
288
1,442
2,198
2,182
2,190
2,176
2,164
2,147
2,146
2,139
2,133
2,137
2,127
2,118
2,111
2,100
2,087
2,208
1,901
862
714
2,207
1,971
876
723
2,207
1,970
879
724
2,196
1,970
874
724
2,195
1,977
876
724
2,179
1,970
871
723
2,181
1,987
873
722
2,179
1,993
870
723
2,182
1,998
872
725
2,182
1,996
867
724
2,181
1,998
864
725
2,177
1,989
858
726
2,177
1,986
854
723
2,176
1,972
839
721
2,148
1,973
837
720
382
369
368
366
366
365
365
367
367
368
370
369
369
369
368
7,873
5,546
7,798
5,470
7,773
5,451
7,785
5,458
7,783
5,459
7,777
5,457
7,789
5,465
7,806
5,480
7,828
5,505
7,837
5,516
7,839
5,518
7,837
5,516
7,830
5,513
7,822
5,504
7,827
5,517
Food and kindred products.........
Tobacco manufactures................
Textile mill products.....................
Apparel and other textile
products......................................
Paper and allied products ...........
1,612
64
746
1,608
65
704
1,611
65
700
1,604
64
698
1,608
64
698
1,607
65
697
1,610
64
699
1,612
65
701
1,623
64
702
1,623
64
702
1,631
63
705
1,632
63
707
1,633
63
703
1,639
62
705
1,650
62
706
1,185
681
1,125
683
1,109
682
1,122
683
1,117
682
1,121
682
1,121
683
1,122
687
1,130
686
1,133
687
1,122
687
1,117
688
1,119
689
1,112
689
1,106
689
Printing and publishing.................
Chemicals and allied products.....
Petroleum and coal products.......
Rubber and misc. plastics
products......................................
Leather and leather products ......
1,376
1,049
189
1,435
1,046
178
1,433
1,046
179
1,440
1,045
178
1,442
1,043
177
1,442
1,042
171
1,447
1,040
171
1,454
1,037
170
1,457
1,035
169
1,461
1,034
168
1,467
1,032
167
1,469
1,031
166
1,472
1,028
166
1,473
1,025
166
1,478
1,023
165
780
189
790
166
784
164
784
167
787
165
785
165
790
164
794
164
798
164
802
163
803
162
804
160
800
157
797
154
796
152
69,769
72,684
72,545
72,797
73,010
73,285
73,525
73,735
73,933
74,195
74,391
74,539
74,745
74,944
74,960
5,159
2,917
5,242
3,006
5,238
3,001
5,241
3,006
5,219
2,983
5,257
3,023
5,260
3,026
5,272
3,040
5,277
3,046
5,286
3,056
5,277
3,048
5,280
3,053
5,266
3,040
5,262
3,036
5,170
3,039
2,242
2,236
2,237
2,235
2,236
2,234
2,234
2,232
2,231
2,230
2,229
2,227
2,226
2,226
2,131
5,555
3,276
2,279
5,740
3,409
2,331
5,736
3,408
2,328
5,740
3,416
2,324
5,762
3,424
2,338
5,777
3,432
2,345
5,796
3,442
2,354
5,796
3,451
2,345
5,809
3,460
2,349
5,830
3,470
2,360
5,843
3,482
2,361
5,841
3,480
2,361
5,864
3,485
2,379
5,868
3,485
2,383
5,824
3,449
2,375
16,545
2,267
2,637
17,360
2,320
2,779
17,379
2,329
2,781
17,404
2,325
2,795
17,464
2,328
2,805
17,489
2,326
2,813
17,543
2,329
2,828
17,589
2,326
2,845
17,622
2,317
2,870
17,734
2,328
2,880
17,795
2,333
2,891
17,828
2,333
2,901
17,851
2,342
2,910
17,903
2,345
2,912
17,919
2,341
2,932
1,799
5,388
1,892
5,715
1,894
5,728
1,897
5,734
1,904
5,749
1,910
5,761
1,916
5,772
1,918
5,783
1,922
5,801
1,929
5,831
1,938
5,854
1,939
5,868
1,940
5,859
1,943
5,889
1,944
5,918
5,689
2,854
1,757
1,078
5,953
2,979
1,830
1,144
5,939
2,970
1,827
1,142
5,964
2,985
1,832
1,147
5,988
2,998
1,839
1,151
6,014
3,011
1,846
1,157
6,038
3,024
1,852
1,162
6,070
3,039
1,862
1,169
6,095
3,053
1,868
1,174
6,123
3,066
1,878
1,179
6,157
3,082
1,889
1,186
6,184
3,095
1,900
1,189
6,228
3,120
1,910
1,198
6,256
3,134
1,916
1,206
6,275
3,149
1,921
1,205
20,797
4,057
6,122
21,974
4,452
6,310
21,893
4,433
6,291
21,998
4,462
6,301
22,115
4,504
6,333
22,212
4,542
6,350
22,313
4,567
6,375
22,415
4,604
6,401
22,501
4,631
6,424
22,585
4,660
6,447
22,638
4,687
6,471
22,707
4,698
6,497
22,825
4,750
6,511
22,912
4,752
6,540
23,057
4,807
6,553
16,024
2,807
3,734
9,482
16,415
2,875
3,848
9,692
16,360
2,872
3,835
9,653
16,450
2,879
3,851
9,720
16,462
2,886
3,855
9,721
16,536
2,899
3,878
9,759
16,575
2,895
3,895
9,785
16,593
2,904
3,901
9,788
16,629
2,913
3,904
9,812
16,637
2,918
3,916
9,803
16,681
2,918
3,924
9,839
16,699
2,923
3,927
9,849
16,711
2,914
3,938
9,859
16,743
2,923
3,933
9,887
16,715
2,931
3,930
9,854
N o n d u r a b le g o o d s ..............................
Production workers......................
S E R V IC E - P R O D U C IN G
......................
T r a n s p o r t a t io n a n d p u b lic
u t i l i t i e s ......................................................
Transportation..............................
Communication and public
utilities.........................................
W h o le s a le t r a d e ..................................
Durable goods..............................
Nondurable goods.......................
R e ta il t r a d e ..............................................
General merchandise stores........
Food stores..................................
Automotive dealers and service
stations.......................................
Eating and drinking places..........
F in a n c e , in s u r a n c e , a n d r e a l
e s t a t e .........................................................
Finance ........................................
Insurance.....................................
Real estate..................................
S e r v i c e s .....................................................
Business services........................
Health services............................
G o v e r n m e n t ...........................................
Federal.........................................
S ta te .............................................
Local.............................................
p = preliminary
NOTE: See notes on the data for a description of the most recent benchmark
Digitized for 72
FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
revision.
14. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultura! payrolls by industry
monthly data seasonally adjusted
An tuai
ave rage
1985
1986
Industry
1984
1985
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
35.2
34.9
34.9
34.8
34.9
34.9
C O N S T R U C T I O N ..........................................
37.8
37.7
-
-
-
-
M A N U F A C T U R I N G ...................................................
40.7
3.4
40.5
3.3
40.5
3.2
40.4
3.2
40.6
3.3
40.7
3.3
40.7
3.4
40.7
3.4
40.9
3.6
40.8
3.5
40.7
3.4
Overtime hours............................
Lumber and wood products .......................
Furniture and fixtures............................
Stone, clay, and glass products.........................
Primary metal industries ..................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products.........
Fabricated metal products ..................................
41.4
3.6
39.9
39.7
42.0
41.7
40.7
41.4
41.2
3.5
39.9
39.4
41.9
41.5
41.1
41.3
41.2
3.4
40.1
39.1
41.9
41.5
41.1
41.4
41.1
3.4
39.8
39.0
41.9
41.4
41.2
41.4
41.3
3.4
40.1
39.3
42.0
41.7
41.5
41.4
41.3
3.5
40.1
39.4
42.0
41.5
41.1
41.5
41.3
3.5
40.2
39.5
42.1
41.8
41.6
41.5
41.3
3.6
39.9
39.4
41.8
41.9
41.9
41.5
41.6
3.7
40.2
39.9
41.8
42.1
41.9
41.6
41.5
3.6
40.4
40.0
42.7
41.9
41.7
41.5
Machinery except electrical ................................
Electrical and electronic equipment....................
Transportation equipment..............................
Motor vehicles and equipment.........................
Instruments and related products ......................
Miscellaneous manufacturing..............................
41.9
41.0
42.7
43.8
41.3
39.4
41.5
40.6
42.6
43.5
41.0
39.4
41.6
40.6
42.4
42.9
41.1
-
41.4
40.4
42.6
43.4
40.8
-
41.6
40.7
42.9
43.7
40.9
-
41.6
40.5
42.9
43.6
40.9
-
41.5
40.6
42.8
43.7
40.9
-
41.6
40.9
42.7
43.6
41.0
-
41.7
41.1
43.0
44.0
41.6
Overtime hours...........................
Food and kindred products.................................
Tobacco manufactures ......................................
Textile mill products.............................
Apparel and other textile products.....................
Paper and allied products ........................
39.7
3.1
39.8
38.9
39.9
36.4
43.1
39.6
3.1
40.0
37.2
39.7
36.4
43.1
39.5
3.0
39.8
39.4
3.0
40.0
39.6
3.1
40.0
39.8
3.1
40.1
39.8
3.2
40.2
39.8
3.2
40.0
39.5
36.3
42.9
39.2
36.4
42.9
40.0
36.4
43.1
40.5
36.6
43.1
40.7
36.6
43.2
Printing and publishing........................................
Chemicals and allied products............................
Petroleum and coal products..........................
Leather and leather products........................
37.9
41.9
43.7
36.8
37.8
41.9
43.0
37.2
37.6
41.9
42.7
-
37.5
41.8
43.0
-
37.9
41.9
43.3
-
37.9
41.7
43.3
-
37.9
41.8
44.2
-
P R IV A T E S E C T O R ........................................................
Overtime hours......................................
D u r a b le g o o d s ..........................................
N o n d u r a b le g o o d s ..............................................
_
_
_
_
34.9
-
34.8
34.9
35.0
34.9
Mar.
34.9
Apr.
MayP
June-P
34.8
34.8
34.8
_
_
_
40.7
3.4
40.7
3.4
40.7
3.4
40.6
3.3
41.4
3.5
40.0
39.7
41.9
42.1
41.8
41.5
41.4
3.6
40.2
39.4
41.9
41.9
41.7
41.4
41.3
3.6
40.3
39.1
42.4
41.3
40.5
41.2
41.2
3.4
40.3
39.4
42.3
41 7
41.5
41.1
41.2
34
40 2
39.4
42 4
41 6
41,2
41.0
41.6
41.0
42.8
43.6
41.1
41.6
40.9
42.7
43.4
41.2
41.6
41.0
42.7
43.3
41.3
41.8
41.1
42.1
41.9
41.3
41.8
41.0
42.0
41.9
40 8
41.6
41.0
42.2
42 5
41 0
40.0
3.4
40.1
39.9
3.3
40.1
39.7
3.2
39.8
39.8
3.2
39.9
39.9
3.3
40.2
39.9
3.4
40 3
39 8
3.2
40 1
40.8
36.8
43.3
41.0
36.8
43.5
40.8
36.7
43.6
40.6
36.3
43.5
40.7
36.5
43.5
41.3
36.9
43.0
41.1
36.5
43.2
40.5
36.7
43.3
37.9
41.9
43.2
-
38.1
42.0
43.6
38.0
41.9
43.5
38.0
41.8
43.7
38.0
41.9
43.8
38.0
41.9
43 6
38.0
42.0
43 3
38 0
41 8
43 R
39.5
39.4
39.5
39.6
39.2
39.1
39.1
-
-
_
-
-
T R A N S P O R T A T IO N A N D P U B L IC U T I L I T I E S .....
39.4
39.5
39.5
39.3
39.5
39.5
39.5
39.4
W H O L E S A L E T R A D E ..............................................
38.5
38.4
38.5
38.4
38.4
38.4
38.4
38.4
38.4
38.5
38.4
38.5
38.5
38.4
38.3
R E T A IL T R A D E ..........................................................
29.8
29.4
29.5
29.4
29.4
29.4
29.3
29.3
29.2
29.3
29.3
29.3
29.2
29.2
29.2
S E R V IC E S ..............................................
32.6
32.5
32.5
32.4
32.5
32.4
32.5
32.4
32.5
32.6
32.6
32.5
32.5
32.5
32.5
-
D a ta
n o t a v a ila b le .
p = preliminary
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
NOTE: See "Notes un me aaia
benchmark adjustment.
lor a description ot tne most recent
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
August 1986 •
Current Labor Statistics:
Employment Data
15. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls by
industry
______________________________________________ _
Annual
average
1986
1985
Industry
1984
1985
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
Mayp
Junep
..............................................
$8.32
$8.57
_
$8.54
8.57
$8.52
8.55
$8.52
8.59
$8.67
8.62
$8.64
8.63
$8.66
8.65
$8.71
8.70
$8.72
8.68
$8.74
8.71
$8.73
8.73
$8.72
8.72
$8.72
8.73
$8.72
8.75
................................................................................
11.63
11.98
12.02
11.92
11.99
12.05
12.00
12.07
12.27
12.24
12.32
12.35
12.43
12.43
12.51
12.13
12.31
12.17
12.21
12.28
12.46
12.42
12.28
12.47
12.34
12.35
12.22
12.29
12.34
12.31
9.70
9.71
9.70
P R IV A T F S F D T O R
M I N IN G
C O N S T R U C T IO N
M A N U F A C T U R IN G
.................................................
......................................................
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products....
T R A N S P O R T A T IO N A N D P U B L IC U T IL IT IE S
W HOLESALE TR A D E
.....................................................
9.19
9.53
9.52
9.55
9.49
9.57
9.56
9.63
9.74
9.70
9.70
9.72
9.74
8.03
6.84
9.57
11.47
12.98
9.40
10.10
8.22
7.17
9.84
11.68
13.34
9.70
10.08
8.26
7.17
9.85
11.65
13.28
9.68
10.10
8.22
7.20
9.90
11.78
13.49
9.70
10.06
8.27
7.20
9.87
11.63
13.36
9.64
10.15
8.33
7.27
9.91
11.69
13.43
9.74
10.15
8.30
7.29
9.87
11.61
13.32
9.71
10.22
8.29
7.32
9.91
11.77
13.43
9.76
10.34
8.35
7.38
9.95
11.84
13.44
9.91
10.27
8.30
7.36
9.96
11.81
13.48
9.85
10.29
8.36
7.31
9.94
11.96
13.81
9.85
10.30
8.33
7.35
9.93
11.99
13.80
9.88
10.28
8.32
7.36
10.00
12.00
13.82
9.84
10.27
8.36
7.40
10.03
12.02
13.83
9.84
10.27
8.45
7.46
10.04
11.98
13.94
9.85
9.96
9.04
12.20
12.73
8.84
7.05
10.29
9.47
12.72
13.42
9.16
7.30
10.28
9.46
12.66
13.36
9.12
7.30
10.31
9.47
12.65
13.35
9.17
7.32
10.26
9.50
12.65
13.31
9.19
7.28
10.38
9.54
12.78
13.48
9.25
7.33
10.41
9.55
12.78
13.44
9.24
7.32
10.48
9.61
12.85
13.52
9.27
7.37
10.55
9.68
13.06
13.81
9.39
7.48
10.50
9.60
12.91
13.66
9.32
7.48
10.53
9.60
12.87
13.59
9.39
7.50
10.58
9.62
12.90
13.66
9.41
7.51
10.55
9.62
12.83
13.54
9.41
7.50
10.55
9.64
12.79
13.46
9.39
7.52
10.57
9.62
12.80
13.47
9.39
7.56
8.38
8.39
11.22
6.46
5.55
10.41
8.71
8.57
11.94
6.71
5.73
10.82
8.69
8.58
12.76
6.68
5.71
10.79
8.75
8.57
12.83
6.69
5.70
10.91
8.70
8.50
12.34
6.72
5.69
10.86
8.73
8.53
11.34
6.75
5.75
10.91
8.72
8.51
11.31
6.76
5.74
10.91
8.79
8.61
11.97
6.79
5.75
10.97
8.87
8.71
11.78
6.83
5.80
11.07
8.86
8.72
11.89
6.85
5.82
11.02
8.86
8.71
12.38
6.83
5.79
10.99
8.88
8.74
12.76
6.86
5.80
11.03
8.88
8.75
12.84
6.87
5.81
11.05
8.91
8.78
13.37
6.88
5.78
11.12
8.90
8.75
13.63
6.85
5.79
11.11
9.41
11.07
13.44
8.29
5.71
9.71
11.56
14.06
8.54
5.82
9.63
11.51
13.99
8.51
5.83
9.69
11.59
14.05
8.55
5.84
9.76
11.60
14.02
8.52
5.81
9.81
11.65
14.09
8.56
5.83
9.78
11.70
13.99
8.54
5.77
9.83
11.80
14.07
8.63
5.83
9.92
11.85
14.24
8.73
5.83
9.85
11.86
14.26
8.69
5.86
9.86
11.81
14.21
8.69
5.63
9.90
11.78
14.22
8.72
5.86
9.87
11.82
14.16
8.68
5.89
9.92
11.88
14.00
8.74
5.89
9.90
11.90
14.03
8.76
5.87
11.12
11.40
11.34
11.37
11.42
11.54
11.48
11.59
11.61
11.59
11.64
11.62
11.55
11.52
11.58
8.89
9.16
9.16
9.14
9.12
9.22
9.16
9.23
9.33
9.28
9.36
9.33
9.29
9.28
9.33
5.99
R E T A IL T R A D E ....................................................................
5.85
5.94
5.91
5.90
5.88
5.98
5.95
5.97
5.99
6.03
6.04
6.03
6.01
6.00
F IN A N C E , IN S U R A N C E , A N D R E A L E S T A T E
7.63
7.94
7.96
7.88
7.91
8.04
8.01
8.06
8.15
8.14
8.28
8.30
8.29
8.33
8.43
8.12
8.10
8.10
S E R V IC E S
p
..............................................................................
Data not available.
= preliminary
74
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
7.59
7.89
7.85
7.80
7.82
7.99
7.99
8.05
8.12
8.12
_ L _ ____
-------
8.17
8.18
N0TE: See “ Notes on the data” for a description of the most recent
benchmark revision.
16. Average weekly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls by industry
Annual average
1985
1986
Industry
1984
1985
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
MayP
Junep
P R IV A T E S E C T O R
Current dollars.................................................. $292.86 $299.09 $300.61 $299.05 $299.90 $303.45 $301.54 $301.37 $306.59 $302.58 $300.66 $302.93 $301.71 $302.58 $305.20
Seasonally adjusted.....................................
299.09 297.54 299.79 300.84 301.19 301.02 303.63 303.80 303.98 304.68 303.46 303.80 304.50
Constant (1977) dollars ................................... 172.78 170.42 171.19 170.11 170.30 171.83 170.36 169.59 172.05 169.32 168.82 171.05 170.94 170.85
M I N I N G ........................................................................................
503.58
519.93
525.27
510.18
519.17
526.59
518.40
521.42
537.43
543.46
522.37
522.41
522.06
518.33
526.67
C O N S T R U C T I O N ...................................................................
458.51
464.09
462.46
471.31
471.55
479.71
475.69
450.68
460.14
459.05
434.72
444.81
462.10
468.92
467.78
Current dollars...................................................
Constant (1977) dollars.....................................
374.03
220.67
385.97
219.93
387.46
220.65
382.96
217.84
384.35
218.26
390.46
221.10
390.05
220.37
393.87
221.65
406.16
227.92
394.79
220.92
390.91
219.49
395.60
223.38
392.85
222.58
394.23
222.60
395.76
D u r a b le g o o d s ......................................................................
Lumber and wood products................................
Furniture and fixtures..........................................
Stone, clay, and glass products.........................
Primary metal industries .....................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products.........
Fabricated metal products ..................................
403.24
320.40
271.55
401.94
478.30
528.29
389.16
416.12
327.98
282.50
412.30
484.72
548.27
400.61
417.31
337.01
281.06
418.63
486.97
552.45
402.69
410.06
326.33
275.76
418.77
485.34
558.49
395.76
412.46
334.94
283.68
418.49
480.32
550.43
397.17
420.21
338.20
289.35
421.18
486.30
553.32
405.18
419.20
335.32
291.60
419.48
480.65
544.79
403.94
424.13
327.46
291.34
414.24
491.99
557.35
406.02
439.45
335.67
303.32
414.92
504.38
564.48
422.17
425.18
329.51
289.98
414.34
493.66
556.72
407.79
421.89
328.55
284.36
403.56
503.52
578.64
403.85
426.42
333.20
288.12
412.10
504.78
576.84
409.03
423.54
334.46
286.30
425.00
499.20
569.38
403.44
423.12
338.58
288.60
428.28
501.23
575.33
404.42
425.18
345.61
294.67
431.72
500.76
581.30
405.82
Machinery, except electrical ...............................
Electrical and electronic equipment...................
Transportation equipment...................................
Motor vehicles and equipment.........................
Instruments and related products ......................
Miscellaneous manufacturing..............................
417.32
370.64
520.94
557.57
365.09
277.77
427.04
384.48
541.87
583.77
375.56
287.62
427.65
385.02
539.32
578.49
374.83
287.62
420.65
376.91
531.30
571.38
369.55
282.55
422.71
383.80
530.04
565.68
373.11
284.65
431.81
387.32
544.43
585.03
380.18
293.20
430.97
387.73
545.71
585.98
376.07
295.00
438.06
396.89
551.27
588.12
382.85
296.27
452.60
408.50
577.25
625.59
400.01
304.44
437.85
394.56
555.13
595.58
383.05
297.70
437.00
389.76
545.69
583.01
384.99
294.75
442.24
395.38
552.12
592.84
389.57
299.65
437.83
392.50
542.71
574.10
385.81
297.75
437.83
393.31
538.46
568.01
381.23
296.29
439.71
394.42
541.44
576.52
384.99
301.64
N o n d u r a b le g o o d s ..............................................................
332.69
333.92
436.46
257.75
202.02
448.67
344.92
342.80
444.17
266.39
208.57
466.34
344.12
342.34
481.05
266.53
209.56
463.97
343.88
342.80
434.94
258.23
206.34
465.86
345.39
342.55
457.81
270.14
208.25
465.89
349.20
348.02
434.32
275.40
210.45
473.49
347.93
343.80
444.48
276.48
211.23
472.40
351.60
346.12
435.71
279.75
212.75
477.20
359.24
354.50
448.82
283.45
215.18
490.40
352.63
347.93
448.25
278.80
213.01
479.37
347.31
339.69
453.11
274.57
207.28
472.57
352.54
344.36
478.50
278.52
211.70
477.60
351.65
346.50
469.94
278.92
211.48
474.05
354.62
352.96
508.06
282.08
210.97
479.27
355.11
351.75
530.21
280.17
214.81
481.06
356.64
463.83
587.33
367.04
484.36
604.58
359.20
484.57
597.37
361.44
482.14
606.96
370.88
482.56
607.07
374.74
486.97
621.37
371.64
486.72
619.76
375.51
495.60
610.64
384.90
503.63
622.29
371.35
495.75
616.03
370.74
492.48
612.45
377.19
494.76
621.41
374.07
495.26
615.96
374.98
498.96
603.40
373.23
499.80
614.51
345.69
210.13
350.99
216.50
350.61
220.96
347.13
219.00
346.76
216.71
351.82
219.21
350.99
216.95
356.42
219.21
366.66
220.96
359.77
217.41
356.29
209.88
360.14
212.72
356.75
213.81
359.21
215.57
360.04
218.95
M A N U F A C T U R IN G
Food and kindred products.................................
Tobacco manufactures.......................................
Textile mill products.........................................
Apparel and other textile products.....................
Paper and allied products ...................................
Printing and publishing........................................
Chemicals and allied products............................
Petroleum and coal products..............................
Rubber and miscellaneous
plastics products...............................................
Leather and leather products .............................
T R A N S P O R T A T IO N A N D P U B L IC
438.13
450.30
451.33
449.12
454.52
458.14
453.46
457.81
460.92
452.01
456.29
457.83
450.45
448.13
456.25
W H O L E S A L E T R A D E ......................................................
342.27
351.74
353.58
352.80
351.12
354.97
351.74
355.36
360.14
355.42
355.68
357.34
355.81
356.35
359.21
R E T A I L T R A D E .....................................................................
174.33
174.64
176.71
177.59
176.99
175.81
173.74
173.73
178.50
173.06
172.74
174.27
173.69
174.60
177.30
F IN A N C E , IN S U R A N C E , A N D R E A L
E S T A T E ...............................................................................
278.50
289.02
292.13
286.04
287.13
293.46
290.76
291.77
299.11
296.30
304.70
304.61
301.76
302.38
309.38
S E R V IC E S ...................................................................
247.43
256.43
256.70
255.84
256.50
258.88
259.68
260.02
263.90
263.09
264.71
265.03
263.09
262.44
264.87
U T I L I T I E S .....................................................................
- Data not available.
p = preliminary
NOTE: See “ Notes on the data” for a description of the most recent benchmark
revision.
17. The Hourly Earnings Index for production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls by
industry
Not seasonally adjusted
Industry
June
1985
Apr.
1986
May
1986p
Seasonally adjusted
June
1986p
PRIVATE SECTOR (in current d o lla rs ).........................
164.8
168.4
168.6
169.0
M ining'..........................................................................
Construction.................................................................
Manufacturing ..............................................................
Transportation and public utilities................................
Wholesale trade' ..........................................................
Retail trade ..................................................................
Finance, insurance, and real e sta te '...........................
Services........................................................................
179.0
148.9
168.5
165.2
169.0
155.4
172.2
167.7
181.2
149.9
172.2
169.0
171.3
157.8
178.9
173.1
180.7
150.9
172.5
168.7
171.3
157.7
179.6
173.1
181.2
150.5
172.5
169.7
172.1
157.9
181.6
173.5
PRIVATE SECTOR (in constant d o te rs ) ......................
9 3 .8
9 5 .4
9 5 .2
-
'
T h is s e rie s is n o t s e a s o n a lly a d ju s te d b e c a u s e th e s e a s o n a l c o m p o n e n t is s m all
re la tiv e t o th e tre n d -c y c le , irreg u la r c o m p o n e n ts , o r b o th , a n d c o n s e q u e n tly c a n n o t
b e s e p a r a te d w ith s u ffic ie n t pre cis io n .
- D a t a n o t a v a ia b le .
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
June
1985
Feb.
1986
Mar.
1986
Apr.
1986
May
1986
165.2
168.2
168.5
168.4
168.6
169.4
149.8
168.7
166.4
149.7
171.3
169.6
149.2
171.8
170.2
150.6
172.0
169.3
151.2
172.4
169.7
151.4
172.7
170.9
June
1986»
-
-
-
-
-
-
155.2
157.3
157.4
157.3
157.1
157.7
-
-
-
-
-
_
168.7
173.1
174.0
173.1
173.3
174.5
9 4 .2
94.4
95.1
95.4
95.4
-
preliminary,
NOTE: See “ Notes on the data" for a description of the most recent benchmark
revision.
p «=
75
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
18.
August 1986 •
Current Labor Statistics:
Employment Data
Indexes of diffusion: industries in which employment increased, data seasonally adjusted
(In percent)
Jan.
Time span and year
Over 1-month span
June
May
Apr.
Mar.
Feb.
Nov.
Oct.
Sept.
Aug.
July
Dec.
1985 .......................................................................
1986 .......................................................................
67.8
52.4
59.7
72.7
47.8
53.5
67.6
53.8
45.1
67.6
49.2
54.1
62.4
51.6
50.5
65.4
47.0
44.1
62.2
56.2
55.9
56.8
50.5
50.8
63.0
61.9
53.5
57.6
57.0
59.5
Over 3-month span
1984
................................................
1985 .......................................................................
1986 .......................................................................
76.5
51.1
58.1
75.1
49.7
54.3
75.9
46.2
51.1
71.4
46.2
50.0
71.6
45.1
47.6
68.1
51.4
63.2
49.7
58.1
51.1
56.8
55.1
53.5
55.9
58.1
61.4
53.0
60.5
Over 6-month span
1984
................................................
1985 .......................................................................
1986 .......................................................................
78.1
49.2
53.8
76.5
47.8
54.1
77.0
43.0
48.1
75.1
45.9
”
69.2
44.3
65.1
44.3
63.2
48.9
59.2
50.8
58.6
54.1
53.2
57.0
49.7
57.0
54.9
55.9
67.8
47.3
65.7
47.6
62.7
48.9
59.7
47.3
54.6
49.5
51.4
49.2
48.6
47.6
'
Over 12-month span
1985 .......................................................................
1986 .......................................................................
81.1
46.2
“
Data not available.
NOTE: Figures are the percent of industries with employment rising. (Half of
the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are centered within the
19.
68.9
44.9
72.2
43.8
72.2
46.8
78.1
45.7
spans. See the “ Definitions” in this section. See “ Notes on the data” for a
description of the most recent benchmark revision,
Annual data: Employment status of the noninstitutional population
(Numbers in thousands)
1980
1979
1978
1977
Employment status
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
179,912
160,689
163,541
166,460
169,349
171,775
173,939
175,891
178,080
100,665
62.6
103,882
63.5
106,559
64.0
108,544
64.1
110,315
64.2
111,872
64.3
113,226
64.4
115,241
64.7
117,167
65.1
93,673
58.3
1,656
97,679
59.7
1,631
100,421
60.3
1,597
100,907
59.6
1,604
102,042
59.4
1,645
101,194
58.2
1,668
102,510
58.3
1,676
106,702
59.9
1,697
108,856
60.5
1,706
Agriculture............................................
Nonagricultural industries.....................
92,017
3,283
88,734
96,048
3,387
92,661
98,824
3,347
95,477
99,303
3,364
95,938
100,397
3,368
97,030
99,526
3,401
96,125
100,834
3,383
97,450
105,005
3,321
101,685
107,150
3,179
103,971
Unemployed
Total (number)............................................
Percent of labor fo rc e ................................
6,991
6.9
6,202
6.0
6,137
5.8
7,637
7.0
8,273
7.5
10,678
9.5
10,717
9.5
8,539
7.4
8,312
7.1
Not in labor force (number) ................................
60,025
59,659
59,900
60,806
61,460
62,067
62,665
62,839
62,744
Noninstitutional population....................................
Labor force
Percent of population.......................................
Employed
Percent of population ..................................
Resident Armed Forces............................
Civilian
20.
Annual data: Employment levels by industry
(Numbers in thousands)
1978
1977
Industry
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
94,496
78,472
24,727
966
4,383
19,378
97,614
81,199
24,930
930
4,687
19,314
82,471
67,344
24,346
813
3,851
19,682
86,697
71,026
25,585
851
4,229
20,505
89,823
73,876
26,461
958
4,463
21,040
90,406
74,166
25,658
1,027
4,346
20,285
91,156
75,126
25,497
1,139
4,188
20,170
89,566
73,729
23,813
1,128
3,905
18,781
90,200
74,330
23,334
952
3,948
18,434
Finance, insurance, and real estate...............................
Services............. .............................................................
58,125
4,713
4,708
13,808
4,467
15,303
61,113
4,923
4,969
14,573
4,724
16,252
63,363
5,136
5,204
14,989
4,975
17,112
64,748
5,146
5,275
15,035
5,160
17,890
65,659
5,165
5,358
15,189
5,298
18,619
65,753
5,082
5,278
15,179
5,341
19,036
66,866
4,954
5,268
15,613
5,468
19,694
69,769
5,159
5,555
16,545
5,689
20,797
72,684
5,242
5,740
17,360
5,953
21,974
L o ca l.........................................................................
15,127
2,727
3,377
9,023
15,672
2,753
3,474
9,446
15,947
2,773
3,541
9,633
16,241
2,866
3,610
9,765
16,031
2,772
3,640
9,619
15,837
2,739
3,640
9,458
15,869
2,774
3,662
9,434
16,024
2,807
3,734
9,482
16,415
2,875
3,848
9,692
Total employment....................................................................
Goods-producing.................................................................
Mining.............................................................................
Manufacturing.................................................................
Service-producing................................................................
Transportation and public utilities...................................
NOTE:
D a ta
in clu d e A la s k a
and
H a w a ii b e g in n in g
in
1959.
See
“ N o te s o n th e d a ta ” fo r a d e sc rip tio n o f th e m o s t r e c e n t b e n c h m a rk
76
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
revision.
21. Annual data: Average hours and earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on nonagricultural
payrolls, by industry
Industry
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
36.0
5.25
189.00
35.8
5.69
203.70
35.7
6.16
219.91
35.3
6.66
235.10
35.2
7.25
255.20
34.8
7.68
267.26
35.0
8.02
280.70
35.2
8.32
292.86
34.9
8.57
299.09
43.4
6.94
301.20
43.4
7.67
332.88
43.0
8.49
365.07
43.3
9.17
397.06
43.7
10.04
438.75
42.7
10.77
459.88
42.5
11.28
479.40
43.3
11.63
503.58
43.4
11.98
519.93
36.5
8.10
295.65
36.8
8.66
318.69
37.0
9.27
342.99
37.0
9.94
367.78
36.9
10.82
399.26
36.7
11.63
426.82
37.1
11.94
442.97
37.8
12.13
458.51
37.7
12.31
464.09
40.3
5.68
228.90
40.4
6.17
249.27
40.2
6.70
269.34
39.7
7.27
288.62
39.8
7.99
318.00
38.9
8.49
330.26
40.1
8.83
354.08
40.7
9.19
374.03
40.5
9.53
385.97
39.9
6.99
278.90
40.0
7.57
302.80
39.9
8.16
325.58
39.6
8.87
351.25
39.4
9.70
382.18
39.0
10.32
402.48
39.0
10.79
420.81
39.4
11.12
438.13
39.5
11.40
450.30
38.8
5.39
209.13
38.8
5.88
228.14
38.8
6.39
247.93
38.5
6.96
267.96
38.5
7.56
291.06
38.3
8.09
309.85
38.5
8.55
329.18
38.5
8.89
342.27
38.4
9.16
351.74
31.6
3.85
121.66
31.0
4.20
130.20
30.6
4.53
138.62
30.2
4.88
147.38
30.1
5.25
158.03
29.9
5.48
163.85
29.8
5.74
171.05
29.8
5.85
174.33
29.4
5.94
174.64
36.4
4.54
165.26
36.4
4.89
178.00
36.2
5.27
190.77
36.2
5.79
209.60
36.3
6.31
229.05
36.2
6.78
245.44
36.2
7.29
263.90
36.5
7.63
278.50
36.4
7.94
289.02
33.0
4.65
153.45
32.8
4.99
163.67
32.7
5.36
175.27
32.6
5.85
190.71
32.6
6.41
208.97
32.6
6.92
225.59
32.7
7.31
239.04
32.6
7.59
247.43
32.5
7.89
256.43
P r iv a t e s e c t o r
Average weekly hours...........................................................
Average hourly earnings .......................................................
Average weekly earnings......................................................
M in in g
Average weekly hours .....................................................
Average hourly earnings..................................................
Average weekly earnings .................................................
C o n s t r u c t io n
Average weekly hours .....................................................
Average hourly earnings..................................................
Average weekly earnings ................................................
M a n u f a c t u r in g
Average weekly hours .....................................................
Average hourly earnings..................................................
Average weekly earnings .................................................
T r a n s p o r t a t io n a n d p u b lic u tilitie s
Average weekly hours .....................................................
Average hourly earnings..................................................
Average weekly earnings ................................................
W h o le s a le t r a d e
Average weekly hours .....................................................
Average hourly earnings..................................................
Average weekly earnings ................................................
R e ta il t r a d e
Average weekly hours .....................................................
Average hourly earnings..................................................
Average weekly earnings ................................................
F in a n c e , in s u r a n c e , a n d r e a l e s t a te
Average weekly hours .....................................................
Average hourly earnings..................................................
Average weekly earnings ................................................
S e r v ic e s
Average weekly hours .....................................................
Average hourly earnings..................................................
Average weekly earnings ................................................
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
August 1986 •
Current Labor Statistics:
Compensation and Industrial Relations Data
22. Employment Cost Index, compensation,1 by occupation and industry group
(June 1981=100)
Series
Mar.
June
1986
1985
1984
Sept.
June
Sept.
Dec.
Mar.
Percent change
3
months
ended
12
months
ended
Dec.
Mar.
126.4
128.4
129.2
130.6
1.1
4.1
Mar. 1986
Civilian workers 2 ...................................................................
Workers, by occupational group:
White-collar workers ...........................................................
Blue-collar workers..............................................................
Service workers..................................................................
Workers, by industry division:
Manufacturing .....................................................................
Nonmanufacturing ...............................................................
Services ............................................................................
Public administration 3 .....................................................
119.8
120.8
122.4
123.9
125.5
120.9
117.7
122.0
122.1
118.6
122.1
124.0
119.6
124.6
125.5
120.9
126.8
127.3
122.2
127.8
128.3
123.1
128.0
130.7
124.4
130.9
131.6
124.9
131.8
133.1
126.2
133.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
4.6
3.3
4.1
117.9
120.7
125.0
122.9
119.1
121.6
125.5
123.7
120.4
123.3
128.8
126.9
122.0
124.8
130.9
128.6
123.9
126.2
131.9
130.1
124.6
127.2
132.6
130.3
125.5
129.7
136.4
134.2
126.0
130.6
137.1
134.8
127.7
131.9
138.8
136.8
1.3
1.0
1.2
1.5
3.1
4.5
5.2
5.1
Private industry w o rke rs....................................................
Workers, by occupational group:
White-collar workers.........................................................
Blue-collar workers...........................................................
Service workers................................................................
Workers, by industry division:
Manufacturing...................................................................
Nonmanufacturing ............................................................
119.0
120.1
121.1
122.7
124.2
125.2
126.8
127.5
128.9
1.1
3.8
119.9
117.5
121.5
121.4
118.4
121.2
122.4
119.3
123.2
123.9
120.6
125.7
125.8
121.9
126.3
127.1
122.8
126.5
128.8
124.0
128.8
129.8
124.4
129.5
131.3
125.7
130.9
1.2
1.0
1.1
4.4
3.1
3.6
117.9
119.6
119.1
120.7
120.4
121.6
122.0
123.1
123.9
124.4
124.6
125.6
125.5
127.6
126.0
128.4
127.7
129.7
1.3
1.0
3.1
4.3
123.9
124.4
128.8
130.1
131.7
132.0
136.5
137.5
138.9
1.0
5.5
132.9
128.5
137.6
131.9
138.6
132.7
140.0
134.7
1.0
1.5
5.7
5.2
133.2
133.7
134.6
131.5
130.3
137.9
139.1
140.9
134.1
134.2
139.1
140.3
142.0
135.2
134.8
140.4
141.5
143.0
136.8
136.8
.9
.9
.7
1.2
1.5
5.7
6.1
6.4
4.3
5.1
State and local government workers ...............................
Workers, by occupational group:
White-collar workers.........................................................
Blue-collar workers...........................................................
Workers, by industry division:
Services............................................................................
Schools ..........................................................................
Elementary and secondary.........................................
Hospitals and other services4 .......................................
Public administration3 .......................................................
124.5
121.9
125.0
122.3
129.7
125.0
131.1
125.9
132.5
128.1
124.5
124.5
125.4
124.4
122.9
125.0
124.7
125.7
125.7
123.7
129.9
130.6
132.1
127.9
126.9
131.3
132.0
133.5
129.2
128.6
132.8
133.4
134.4
131.1
130.1
1 Cost (cents-per-hour worked) measured in the Employment Cost Index
consists of wages, salaries, and employer cost of employee benefits.
2 Consist of private industry workers (excluding farm and household workers)
78
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
and State and local government (excluding Federal Government) workers.
3 Consists of legislative, judicial, administrative, and regulatory activities.
4 Includes, for example, library, social, and health services.
23.
Employment Cost Index, wages and salaries, by occupation and industry group
(June 1981=100)
1984
1985
1986
Series
Mar.
June
Sept.
Dec.
Mar.
June
Sept.
Dec.
Mar.
Percent change
3
months
ended
12
months
ended
Mar., 1986
117.9
118.8
120.3
121.7
Workers, by occupational group:
White-collar workers .....................................
Blue-collar workers...............................................
Service workers.......................................
123.1
124.2
126.3
127.0
128.3
1.0
4.2
119.3
115.3
120.0
120.4
116.1
119.8
122.2
117.0
122.3
123.5
118.2
124.3
125.2
119.3
124.8
126.4
120.5
125.3
128.8
122.0
128.0
129.8
122.3
128.6
131.2
123.4
129.8
1.1
.9
.9
4.8
3.4
4.0
Workers, by industry division
Manufacturing.........................................
Nonmanufacturing.............................
Services ................................
Public administration 2 .......................................
115.7
118.9
123.3
120.4
116.8
119.7
123.8
121.3
118.0
121.3
127.2
124.4
119.5
122.6
128.9
125.7
121.0
123.9
129.7
127.0
122.3
125.0
130.5
127.2
123.2
127.6
134.2
131.4
123.8
128.4
134.8
132.0
125.3
129.6
136.4
133.8
1.2
.9
1.2
1.4
3.6
4.6
5.2
5.4
P r iv a t e in d u s t r y w o r k e r s ..............................................
C iv ilia n w o r k e r s 1 .......................................
117.2
118.2
119.2
Workers, by occupational group:
White-collar workers..................................
Professional and technical..........................................
Managers and administrators.....................................
Salesworkers .......................................
Clerical workers.......................................
120.6
122.0
123.3
124.9
125.6
126.8
1.0
3.9
118.5
122.2
118.0
110.2
119.8
119.9
123.8
119.2
111.9
120.7
120.9
125.2
121.0
110.5
122.0
122.3
127.3
122.2
111.6
122.9
124.0
127.7
123.8
116.3
124.7
125.5
128.7
126.5
117.4
125.6
127.3
131.2
127.7
119.3
127.1
128.3
131.5
128.4
122.5
127.9
129.6
132.7
130.5
122.4
129.6
1.0
.9
1.6
-.1
1.3
4.5
3.9
5.4
5.2
3.9
Blue-collar workers.............................................
Craft and kindred workers...........................
Operatives, except transport......................................
Transport equipment operatives.................................
Nonfarm laborers.....................................
Service workers ...............................................
115.1
116.5
114.9
111.7
112.9
119.8
115.9
117.3
115.8
112.7
114.1
119.3
116.7
118.0
116.6
113.4
114.7
121.2
118.0
119.4
117.9
114.0
115.9
123.7
119.1
120.8
118.9
114.5
116.7
123.8
120.3
122.0
120.1
115.7
118.5
124.4
121.7
123.7
121.1
117.7
118.6
126.3
122.0
123.8
121.6
117.8
119.8
126.6
123.1
125.3
122.6
118.0
120.0
128.0
.9
1.2
.8
.2
.2
1.1
3.4
3.7
3.1
3.1
2.8
3.4
115.7
115.7
115.8
116.8
116.6
117.1
118.0
117.7
118.6
119.5
119.1
120.2
121.0
120.6
121.6
122.3
122.0
122.6
123.2
122.7
124.0
123.8
123.4
124.6
125.3
124.8
126.1
1.2
1.1
1.2
3.6
3.5
3.7
118.0
113.3
118.5
114.3
118.2
112.8
116.1
124.2
119.0
114.0
119.3
116.0
120.0
114.4
116.9
124.7
119.9
114.3
119.9
116.5
120.7
114.9
115.3
127.1
121.2
114.4
120.7
118.1
122.9
116.2
115.8
129.5
122.6
115.5
121.7
118.8
123.7
116.9
122.0
129.9
123.9
116.6
122.8
121.1
126.8
118.9
121.7
131.0
125.9
117.3
124.8
122.7
127.7
120.8
124.1
133.9
126.6
117.9
125.2
123.7
128.3
121.9
126.5
134.1
127.7
118.3
126.3
124.5
129.7
122.5
126.6
136.2
.9
.3
.9
.6
1.1
.5
.1
1.6
4.2
2.4
3.8
4.8
4.9
4.8
3.8
4.8
121.6
122.0
126.1
127.1
128.4
128.7
133.2
134.2
135.5
1.0
5.5
122.2
119.1
122.5
119.6
127.1
121.9
128.0
122.5
129.3
124.2
129.6
124.5
134.3
127.9
135.3
128.4
136.6
130.4
1.0
1.6
5.6
5.0
122.2
122.2
122.9
121.9
120.4
122.5
122.3
123.0
123.1
121.3
127.2
127.8
129.3
125.1
124.4
128.1
128.7
130.2
125.9
125.7
129.4
129.9
130.8
127.7
127.0
129.7
130.2
131.1
128.0
127.2
134.5
135.8
137.5
130.2
131.4
135.6
137.0
138.5
130.9
132.0
136.8
138.0
139.4
132.4
133.8
.9
.7
.6
1.1
1.4
5.7
6.2
6.6
3.7
5.4
Workers, by industry division:
Manufacturing..........................................
Durables.............................................
Nondurables...............................
Nonmanufacturing..........................................
Construction...................................
Transportation and public utilities...............................
Wholesale and retail trade....................
Wholesale trade ............................
Retail trade....................................
Finance, insurance, and real estate.................
Services.......................................
S t a t e a n d lo c a l g o v e r n m e n t w o r k e r s ......................
Workers, by occupational group
White-collar workers.................................
Blue-collar workers.............................
Workers, by industry division
Services ..............................
Schools.....................................
Elementary and secondary.....................
Hospitals and other services 3 ...............
Public administration 2 ......................
Consists of private industry workers (excluding farm and household workers)
and State and local government (excluding Federal Government) workers.
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
2 Consists of legislative, judicial, administrative, and regulatory activities,
3 Includes, for example, library, sociàl and health services.
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
24.
August 1986 •
Current Labor Statistics:
Compensation and Industrial Relations Data
Employment Cost Index, private nonfarm workers, by bargaining status, region, and area size
(June 1981=100)
Series
Mar.
June
Dec.
Sept.
Mar.
June
Percent change
1986
1985
1984
Sept.
Dec.
12
months
ended
3
months
ended
Mar.
Mar. 1986
C O M P E N S A T IO N
W o r k e r s , b y b a r g a in in g s ta tu s '
Union .....................................................................................
Manufacturing .....................................................................
Nonmanufacturing ...............................................................
120.6
119.3
121.9
121.7
120.5
122.8
122.6
121.6
123.6
123.9
123.2
124.5
124.8
124.2
125.3
125.5
124.2
126.6
126.5
125.0
127.8
127.1
125.5
128.6
128.4
127.0
129.7
1.0
1.2
.9
2.9
2.3
3.5
Nonunion................................................................................
Manufacturing .....................................................................
Nonmanufacturing...............................................................
118.0
116.6
118.6
119.2
117.9
119.8
120.3
119.3
120.7
121.9
120.8
122.4
123.8
123.6
123.9
125.0
124.8
125.1
126.8
125.7
127.3
127.5
126.3
128.1
129.0
128.1
129.5
1.2
1.4
1.1
4.2
3.6
4.5
118.9
119.7
117.2
121.0
120.7
120.7
117.9
122.2
122.4
120.7
119.7
122.5
123.8
122.2
120.8
124.9
125.1
124.2
122.0
126.8
126.4
125.2
122.7
127.9
128.8
126.5
124.2
129.1
129.9
127.2
124.6
129.8
131.6
128.7
125.9
130.8
1.3
1.2
1.0
.8
5.2
3.6
3.2
3.2
119.4
116.7
120.6
117.4
121.5
119.0
123.2
119.8
124.7
121.4
125.7
122.5
127.3
123.9
128.1
123.9
129.5
125.5
1.1
1.3
3.8
3.4
Manufacturing .....................................................................
Nonmanufacturing...............................................................
118.1
116.1
120.1
119.0
117.1
120.7
119.8
118.1
121.3
120.9
119.5
122.1
121.7
120.4
122.8
123.0
121.7
124.1
124.1
122.8
125.3
124.7
123.3
125.9
125.6
124.2
126.9
.7
.7
.8
3.2
3.2
3.3
Nonunion...............................................................................
Manufacturing .....................................................................
Nonmanufacturing...............................................................
116.7
115.4
117.2
117.8
116.5
118.3
118.8
117.9
119.2
120.4
119.5
120.7
122.1
121.5
122.3
123.4
122.8
123.6
125.2
123.7
125.9
125.9
124.4
126.6
127.3
126.1
127.8
1.1
1.4
.9
4.3
3.8
4.5
117.4
117.9
115.5
118.8
118.9
Î19.0
116.0
119.6
120.5
119.0
117.8
120.0
121.9
120.2
118.7
122.5
123.0
122.3
119.6
124.0
124.6
123.4
121.1
125.1
126.8
124.8
122.5
126.6
128.1
125.4
122.9
127.1
129.2
126.8
124.2
128.1
.9
1.1
1.1
.8
5.0
3.7
3.8
3.3
117.6
115.1
118.6
116.0
119.5
117.5
121.0
118.3
122.4
119.6
123.8
120.6
125.5
121.9
126.3
122.0
127.4
123.6
.9
1.3
4.1
3.3
W o r k e r s , b y r e g io n '
Northeast...............................................................................
South .....................................................................................
Midwest (formerly North Central)..........................................
W est.......................................................................................
W o r k e r s , b y a r e a s iz e '
Metropolitan areas.................................................................
Other areas............................................................................
W A G E S A N D S A L A R IE S
W o r k e r s , b y b a r g a in in g s ta tu s 1
W o r k e r s , b y r e g io n 1
Northeast...............................................................................
South .....................................................................................
Midwest (formerly North Central)..........................................
W est.......................................................................................
W o r k e r s , b y a r e a s iz e '
Metropolitan areas.................................................................
Other areas............................................................................
1 The indexes are calculated differently from those for the occupation and
industry groups. For a detailed description of the index calculation, see the
80
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Monthly Labor Review Technical
Employment Cost Index,” May 1982.
Note,
Estimation
procedures for the
25. Specified compensation and wage adjustments from contract settlements, and effective wage adjustments, private
industry collective bargaining situations covering 1,000 workers or more (in percent)
Quarterly average
Annual average
1984
Measure
1984
1985
1986
1985
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
lp
S p e c if ie d a d ju s tm e n ts :
Total compensation 1 adjustments, 2 settlements
covering 5,000 workers or more:
First year of contract...........................................
Annual rate over life of contract.........................
3.6
2.8
2.6
2.7
3.5
3.2
2.7
3.1
3.7
2.0
3.6
2.7
3.5
3.4
2.0
3.0
2.0
1.4
0.3
1.2
Wage adjustments, settlements covering 1,000
workers or more:
First year of contract...........................................
Annual rate over life of contract.........................
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.7
2.6
2.7
2.1
2.6
2.3
1.5
3.3
3.2
2.5
2.8
2.0
3.1
2.1
1.9
.8
1.6
3.7
.8
3.3
.7
.9
.1
1.2
.2
.7
.3
.7
.1
.8
.2
1.2
.2
.5
.1
.6
.0
2.0
.9
1.8
.7
.7
.2
.7
.3
.2
.2
.6
.1
.5
.1
.5
.4
.2
.1
.4
.2
E f f e c t i v e a d ju s tm e n ts :
Total effective wage adjustment3 .........................
From settlements reached in period ...................
Deferred from settlements reached in earlier
periods................................................................
From cost-of-living-adjustments clauses.............
1 Compensation includes wages, salaries, and employers’ cost of employee
benefits when contract is negotiated.
2 Adjustments are the net result of increases, decreases, and no changes in
compensation or wages.
3 Because of rounding total may not equal sum of parts.
p = preliminary.
26. Average specified compensation and wage adjustments, major collective bargaining settlements in private
industry situations covering 1,000 workers or more during 4-quarter periods (in percent)
Average for four quarters ending-1984
Measure
1985
III
II
IV
I
1986
III
II
IV
lp
Specified total compensation adjustments, settlements covering 5,000
workers or more, all industries:
First year of contract............................................................................
Annual rate over life of contract..........................................................
4.7
3.5
4.2
3.2
3.6
2.8
3.4
2.6
3.4
2.7
3.1
2.7
2.6
2.7
2.3
2.6
3.5
4.6
2.7
3.1
2.9
3.2
3.2
4.5
2.3
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.4
2.9
2.1
2.4
1.8
2.7
2.4
2.5
2.4
2.3
1.3
2.8
2.4
2.3
2.4
2.4
1.5
2.8
2.4
1.9
2.7
2.5
1.8
3.0
2.3
1.6
2.7
2.7
2.5
2.8
2.0
1.6
2.2
2.5
2.6
2.5
3.0
3.2
2.8
3.1
2.8
3.6
2.6
1.5
3.7
2.8
1.8
3.8
2.3
2.1
2.9
1.5
1.0
3.3
2.1
2.0
2.5
1.4
.9
3.2
2.0
1.9
2.2
1.5
1.0
3.0
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.4
2.4
.8
.8
.9
1.8
2.1
1.6
.8
.8
.9
1.8
2.1
1.5
3.7
5.2
2.6
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.3
5.4
2.1
2.8
3.1
2.6
2.5
5.5
2.0
2.9
4.8
2.6
2.6
5.1
2.4
2.8
4.0
2.7
2.7
4.3
2.5
2.9
3.8
2.8
3.2
4.0
3.0
3.3
3.9
3.2
3.3
3.6
3.3
3.3
3.6
3.3
2.8
3.5
2.7
3.0
3.6
2.9
.8
-.4
.9
1.7
.0
1.8
.9
4.0
.9
1.4
1.4
1.4
.5
4.0
.4
1.0
1.4
1.0
.9
4.6
.8
1.4
1.7
1.4
1.1
9.2
1.0
1.7
4.6
1.7
Specified wage adjustments, settlements covering 1,000 workers or
more:
All industries
First year of contract .........................................................................
Contracts with COLA clauses.........................................................
Contracts without COLA clauses ...................................................
Annual rate over life of contract.......................................................
Contracts with COLA clauses.........................................................
Contracts without COLA clauses ...................................................
Manufacturing
First year of contract.........................................................................
Contracts with COLA clauses.........................................................
Contracts without COLA clauses ...................................................
Annual rate over life of contract.......................................................
Contracts with COLA clauses.........................................................
Contracts without COLA clauses ...................................................
Nonmanufacturing
First year of contract.........................................................................
Contracts with COLA clauses.........................................................
Contracts without COLA clauses ...................................................
Annual rate over life of contract.......................................................
Contracts with COLA clauses.........................................................
Contracts without COLA clauses ...................................................
Construction
First year of contract .........................................................................
Contracts with COLA clauses.........................................................
Contracts without COLA clauses ...................................................
Annual rate over life of contract.......................................................
Contracts with COLA clauses.........................................................
Contracts without COLA clauses ...................................................
1 Data do not meet publication standards.
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
p
= preliminary.
1.0
(')
1.7
(')
(1)
1.7
1.5
(1)
(')
0
(')
0
2.1
(’ )
<1)
2.2
(’)
(’ )
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
August 1986 •
Current Labor Statistics:
Compensation and Industrial Relations Data
27. Average effective wage adjustments, private industry collective bargaining situations covering 1,000
workers or more during 4-quarter periods (in percent)
Average for four quarters ending1985
1984
Effective wage adjustment
1986
III
IV
I
II
lllp
IV
I
4.2
1.0
2.1
1.2
3.7
.8
2.0
.9
3.6
.7
2.2
.7
3.5
.9
1.9
.7
3.5
.9
1.8
.8
3.3
.7
1.8
.7
3.1
.6
1.7
.8
5.0
3.7
4.2
3.2
4.4
3.0
4.0
2.7
4.5
2.9
4.2
2.3
4.2
2.9
3.9
2.3
4.3
2.8
3.7
2.8
4.1
3.4
3.7
2.2
4.0
2.9
3.5
2.5
F o r a ll w o r k e r s : 1
F o r w o r k e r s r e c e iv in g c h a n g e s :
1 Because of rounding total may not equal sum of parts.
28. Specified compensation and wage adjustments from contract settlements, and effective wage adjustments, State and
local government collective bargaining situations covering 1,000 workers or more (in percent)
Annual average
Second 6 months
1985p
Measure
1984
1985
5.2
5.4
4.2
5.1
3.8
5.3
Annual rate over life of contract..................................................................................................................................
4.8
5.1
4.6
5.4
4.4
5.6
Effective adjustments:
Total effective wage adjustment3 ..................................................................................................................................
From settlements reached in period............................................................................................................................
Deferred from settlements reached in earlier periods ................................................................................................
From cost-of-living-adjustment clauses........................................................................................................................
5.0
1.9
3.1
(4)
5.7
4.1
1.6
(4)
4.1
3.2
.9
(4)
Specified adjustments:
Total compensation 1 adjustments, 2 settlements covering 5,000 workers or more:
Annual rate over life of contract..................................................................................................................................
Wage adjustments, settlements covering 1,000 workers or more:
3 Because of rounding total may not equal sum of parts.
4 Less than 0.05 percent.
p = preliminary.
1 Compensation includes wages, salaries, and employers’ cost of employee
benefits when contract is negotiated.
2 Adjustments are the net result of increases, decreases, and no changes in
compensation or wages.
29.
Work stoppages involving 1,000 workers or more
1986
1985
Annual totals
Measure
1984
Number of stoppages:
Beginning in period....................
In effect during period................
Workers involved:
Beginning in period (in
thousands).................................
In effect during period (in
thousands).................................
Days idle:
Number (in thousands)...............
Percent of estimated working
time' ..........................................
1985
June
Aug.
July
Sept.
Jan.°
Dec.
Mar.p
Feb.p
62
68
54
61
2
8
9
13
6
18
11
20
6
20
3
13
2
9
4
7
3
7
376.0
323.9
15.7
50.1
15.3
69.5
76.6
26.2
8.2
7.6
Apr.p
Mayp
Junep
3
9
4
9
6
11
11
16
24.0
12.3
7.2
29.7
199.1
18.7
42.3
207.0
391.0
584.1
28.5
56.9
66.8
93.9
119.3
47.0
38.0
12.0
28.4
39.7
8,499.0
7,079.0
454.3
500.2
869.7
931.4
1,433.0
651.2
665.4
170.0
39.7
390.6
321.5
314.6
3,707.4
.04
.03
.02
.02
.04
.04
.06
.04
.03
.01
.02
.02
.02
.02
.07
1 Agricultural and government employees are included in the total employed and total
working time: private household, forestry, and fishery employees are excluded. An
explanation of the measurement of Idleness as a percentage of the total time worked is
found in "Total economy’ measure of strike idleness,” Monthly Labor Review, October
Digitized for 82
FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Nov.
Oct.
1968, pp. 54-56.
- Data not available,
p = preliminary
_____
30. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, by expenditure category and commodity or
service group; and CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, all items
(1967=100, unless otherwise indicated)
Series
Annual
average
1985
1986
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
322.2
374.7
322.3
374.8
322.8
375.5
323.5
376.2
324.5
377.4
325.5
378.5
326.6
379.9
327.4
380.8
328.4
381.9
327.5
380.8
326.0
379.1
325.3
378.3
326.3
379.5
327.9
381.4
295.1
302.9
292.6
305.3
266.6
253.2
317.4
352.2
389.1
288.0
443.0
284.9
333.4
222.1
302.0
309.8
296.8
317.0
263.4
258.0
325.7
361.1
398.8
294.4
451.7
294.2
346.6
229.5
301.4
309.3
296.0
317.3
259.8
257.8
329.0
360.8
398.3
296.0
451.5
293.4
346.9
227.8
301.6
309.5
296.2
317.3
260.5
257.8
328.9
360.6
400.2
297.8
448.2
294.5
347.3
227.8
301.8
309.7
295.9
318.5
259.7
257.4
326.3
361.7
401.8
297.1
449.6
295.8
348.4
228.9
302.1
309.9
295.6
319.2
260.6
258.0
319.9
362.6
401.1
294.8
452.8
296.3
349.9
229.3
302.5
309.8
295.3
318.9
261.1
257.1
317.1
363.0
402.6
291.2
454.1
296.8
350.3
236.4
303.6
311.0
296.6
319.9
266.1
257.1
314.3
362.2
401.4
292.1
451.7
296.8
351.3
236.2
305.6
313.2
299.3
321.9
269.9
256.9
323.9
361.3
402.2
290.3
448.8
297.3
352.1
236.2
307.9
315.6
302.5
322.0
271.5
257.2
334.4
365.7
405.1
292.1
459.7
298.0
353.1
237.5
307.7
315.3
301.5
322.5
268.4
257.3
320.7
375.1
408.6
291.4
485.3
299.5
354.2
238.3
307.8
315.4
301.2
322.7
267.7
256.8
319.2
375.7
408.4
290.2
488.0
299.3
355.5
238.8
308.5
316.1
301.5
322.5
264.2
256.8
329.5
376.1
411.4
288.5
487.4
300.2
357.0
239.5
309.4
317.0
302.1
323.8
263.4
257.1
336.5
374.6
411.2
287.2
481.9
301.4
358.8
239.4
309.5
317.1
301.6
326.1
265.1
257.2
327.8
374.1
411.5
287.0
480.0
301.7
360.2
240.1
Housing ..........................................................................................
Shelter .........................................................................................
Renters’ costs (12/82 = 100)...................................................
Rent, residential.....................................................................
Other renters' costs ...............................................................
Homeowners' costs (12/82 = 100)...........................................
Owners' equivalent rent (1 2 /8 2 -1 0 0 )..................................
Household insurance (12/82—100)......................................
Maintenance and repairs..........................................................
Maintenance and repair services ..........................................
Maintenance and repair commodities...................................
Fuel and other utilities................................................................
Fuels .........................................................................................
Fuel oil, coal, and bottled g a s ...............................................
Gas (piped) and electricity....................................................
Other utilities and public services............................................
Household furnishings and operations.......................................
Housefurnishings......................................................................
Housekeeping supplies.............................................................
Housekeeping services.............................................................
336.5
361.7
108.6
249.3
373.4
107.3
107.3
107.5
359.2
409.7
262.7
387.3
485.5
641.8
445.2
230.2
242.5
199.1
303.2
327.5
349.9
382.0
115.4
264.6
398.4
113.1
113.2
112.4
368.9
421.1
269.6
393.6
488.1
619.5
452.7
240.7
247.2
200.1
313.6
338.9
350.4
381.0
115.1
263.6
401.6
112.8
112.8
112.7
367.6
423.2
265.7
399.4
497.7
612.0
465.6
241.1
247.1
200.0
313.6
338.3
351.6
383.2
115.8
265.0
405.1
113.5
113.5
112.7
367.8
421.1
267.8
399.9
497.3
601.9
467.1
242.8
246.5
198.8
313.1
339.8
352.9
385.9
116.6
266.6
409.9
114.3
114.3
113.0
370.6
425.1
269.2
398.9
494.4
594.6
465.1
244.2
247.0
199.1
313.5
340.7
353.8
386.9
117.0
267.7
410.7
114.6
114.6
113.7
368.7
421.9
268.6
400.5
496.8
601.7
466.5
244.6
247.1
199.0
313.9
341.5
354.4
389.1
117.9
269.9
412.5
115.1
115.1
114.6
368.5
422.2
268.0
395.6
488.4
615.3
453.9
244.7
248.4
200.3
315.7
342.2
355.0
391.3
118.4
271.7
408.7
115.8
115.9
114.5
372.7
426.4
271.5
392.1
481.5
641.6
440.5
245.9
248.9
200.8
316.4
342.7
355.8
392.3
118.3
272.4
398.1
116.3
116.3
115.0
373.7
426.2
273.3
393.3
483.6
657.3
439.9
245.8
248.8
200.1
317.7
343.2
356.8
393.8
118.8
273.4
401.1
116.7
116.7
115.7
379.1
432.6
277.1
394.6
484.7
650.3
442.6
247.3
248.8
199.8
318.3
343.9
356.5
394.8
119.0
273.7
404.1
117.0
117.0
117.4
379.6
432.8
277.8
390.0
476.3
591.2
444.5
247.9
249.0
199.7
318.6
344.5
357.0
397.0
119.6
275.0
405.5
117.9
117.9
118.0
367.5
422.4
266.1
385.5
467.6
549.9
442.3
249.0
249.8
201.0
317.9
345.1
358.0
400.1
120.9
277.9
410.8
118.7
118.7
118.3
367.6
424.6
264.5
381.8
459.6
518.3
439.2
251.3
249.6
200.4
318.5
345.4
358.5
400.9
121.1
278.4
411.3
118.9
118.9
118.8
367.1
425.5
262.9
382.5
460.6
496.8
444.6
251.5
249.9
200.8
318.3
345.8
361.2
401.6
121.6
279.4
415.2
119.0
119.0
118.9
366.6
427.4
260.7
393.8
477.0
486.6
466.0
255.2
250.2
200.8
319.6
346.1
Apparel and upkeep......................................................................
Apparel commodities..................................................................
Men's and boys' apparel..........................................................
Women’s and girls' apparel .....................................................
Infants’ and toddlers’ apparel..................................................
Footwear...................................................................................
Other apparel commodities......................................................
Apparel services..........................................................................
200.2
187.0
192.4
163.6
287.0
209.5
216.4
305.0
206.0
191.6
197.9
169.5
299.7
212.1
215.5
320.9
204.6
190.2
196.4
166.5
300.7
213.9
216.3
319.9
202.8
188.0
194.5
163.4
294.5
211.4
216.7
321.4
205.3
190.6
197.2
167.7
300.6
210.3
217.5
322.9
209.6
195.3
201.5
176.1
302.0
210.9
215.2
324.1
211.1
196.7
203.2
177.9
302.1
212.3
214.9
325.7
211.2
196.8
203.6
176.5
307.0
215.5
214.9
326.3
209.0
194.2
202.0
172.6
304.1
213.1
214.6
326.9
205.0
189.5
198.6
164.4
313.9
209.1
215.5
329.8
204.1
188.5
196.8
163.4
311.6
207.9
216.1
330.7
206.3
190.8
198.3
167.6
313.1
210.1
214.6
331.5
207.3
191.7
199.7
168.0
316.6
211.4
215.3
332.9
206.4
190.7
200.2
164.9
318.5
211.5
215.4
333.6
204.5
188.4
198.1
161.3
319.7
210.0
215.8
334.3
Transportation ...............................................................................
Private transportation..................................................................
New vehicles............................................................................
New cars................................................................................
Used c a rs .................................................................................
Motor fuel .................................................................................
Gasoline.................................................................................
Maintenance and repair............................................................
Other private transportation.....................................................
Other private transportation commodities.............................
Other private transportation services....................................
Public transportation...................................................................
311.7
306.6
208.0
208.5
375.7
370.7
370.2
341.5
273.3
201.5
295.0
385.2
319.9
314.2
214.9
215.2
379.7
373.8
373.3
351.4
287.6
202.6
312.8
402.8
321.8
316.3
214.3
214.7
380.3
384.7
384.5
350.4
286.6
203.9
311.3
399.3
321.8
316.1
214.3
214.7
376.7
385.5
385.3
351.1
287.6
202.2
313.0
402.4
320.7
314.9
214.2
214.6
374.0
381.9
381.8
351.9
287.7
202.8
313.0
403.7
319.7
313.6
214.2
214.5
374.3
377.7
377.4
353.5
285.8
203.4
310.4
408.0
320.9
314.7
215.9
216.2
375.3
374.6
374.2
355.7
289.6
202.8
315.4
411.5
323.2
317.0
218.2
218.4
376.4
376.7
376.1
355.8
293.9
201.6
321.2
412.8
324.0
317.8
219.2
219.4
375.6
377.5
376.8
357.5
295.2
202.1
322.7
412.9
323.9
317.3
219.7
219.9
374.1
373.3
372.5
357.9
297.7
203.4
325.5
419.6
319.2
312.2
220.2
220.4
370.7
351.5
350.8
358.9
299.2
202.9
327.6
422.2
309.6
302.1
220.1
220.3
367.2
308.5
307.7
359.3
301.5
203.6
330.3
421.2
303.3
295.3
221.0
221.2
364.8
279.5
278.6
360.6
301.6
202.2
330.9
422.2
305.7
297.8
222.8
223.0
363.6
289.3
288.7
361.3
301.3
202.4
330.4
423.7
308.6
300.8
224.0
224.2
362.5
299.4
299.1
362.1
303.0
201.5
332.8
425.4
Medical c a re ..................................................................................
Medical care commodities..........................................................
Medical care services.................................................................
Professional services...............................................................
Other medical care services....................................................
379.5
239.7
410.3
346.1
488.0
403.1
256.7
435.1
367.3
517.0
401.7
257.0
433.0
366.4
513.6
404.0
257.8
435.8
368.1
517.6
406.6
259.3
438.6
370.0
521.6
408.3
260.2
440.5
371.7
523.9
410.5
261.3
443.0
373.2
527.4
413.0 414.7
262.7 262.9
445.8 448.0
375.5 377.1
530.8 .533.6
418.2
264.5
451.9
378.9
540.3
422.3
267.4
456.2
381.6
546.4
425.8
269.4
460.1
385.0
550.8
428.0
271.3
462.3
386.9
553.5
429.7
272.3
464.2
388.3
555.9
432.0
273.3
466.8
390.3
559.2
Entertainment ................................................................................
Entertainment commodities ........................................................
Entertainment services...............................................................
255.1
253.3
258.3
265.0
260.6
271.8
264.8
260.1
272.0
265.7
260.8
273.3
265.7
260.5
273.6
266.8
262.5
273.3
268.4
264.0
275.2
269.0
264.0
276.6
268.3
262.5
277.1
270.8
264.7
279.9
272.0
265.2
282.1
271.9
265.0
282.2
272.3
264.8
283.5
272.9
265.3
284.2
273.9
266.1
285.5
Other goods and services ............................................................
Tobacco products .......................................................................
Personal care..............................................................................
Toilet goods and personal care appliances.............................
Personal care services.............................................................
Personal and educational expenses...........................................
School books and supplies......................................................
Personal and educational services..........................................
307.7
310.0
271.4
269.6
274.1
365.7
322.8
375.6
326.6
328.5
281.9
278.5
286.0
397.1
350.8
407.7
323.0
324.8
281.7
277.9
286.1
389.1
344.9
399.4
325.0
330.0
282.3
278.9
286.3
390.1
345.5
400.4
326.0
331.5
283.3
279.4
287.7
390.7
346.1
401.1
333.3
332.8
284.1
280.6
288.2
412.5
362.1
423.9
334.9
334.4
285.0
281.4
289.2
414.7
364.5
426.2
335.3
334.7
285.4
281.1
290.2
415.4
364.7
426.9
336.5
337.4
286.3
282.5
290.6
415.5
364.7
427.0
339.1
342.7
288.1
285.3
291.8
416.8
371.0
427.6
340.3
344.7
289.1
286.0
293.0
417.7
373.8
428.1
341.1
345.6
290.3
287.3
294.0
417.9
374.3
428.3
341.8
346.5
290.5
287.7
294.1
418.9
374.4
429.5
342.1
346.5
290.9
287.9
294.7
419.5
374.5
430.2
342.6
347.1
291.0
287.0
295.7
420.4
375.7
431.0
1984
1985
All ite m s...........................................................................................
All items (1957-59-100).................................................................
311.1
361.9
Food and beverages .....................................................................
Food............................................................................................
Food at hom e...........................................................................
Cereals and bakery products.................................................
Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs................................................
Dairy products........................................................................
Fruits and vegetables.............................................................
Other foods at home..............................................................
Sugar and sweets...............................................................
Fats and o ils ........................................................................
Nonalcoholic beverages......................................................
Other prepared foods..........................................................
Food away from home .............................................................
Alcoholic beverages....................................................................
C O N S U M E R P R IC E IN D E X F O R A L L U R B A N C O N S U M E R S :
See footnotes at end of table.
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
August 1986 •
Current Labor Statistics:
Price Data
30. Continued— Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, by expenditure category and commodity or
service group; and CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, all items
(1967 = 100, unless otherwise indicated)
Series
Annual
average
1985
1986
1984
1985
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
All items ...........................................................................................
Commodities..................................................................................
Food and beverages...................................................................
Commodities less food and beverages......................................
Nondurables less food and beverages ....................................
Apparel commodities..............................................................
Nondurables less food, beverages, and apparel ..................
Durables....................................................................................
311.1
280.7
295.1
322.2
286.7
302.0
322.3
286.9
301.4
322.8
286.5
301.6
323.5
286.5
301.8
324.5
287.1
302.1
325.5
287.9
302.5
326.6
289.2
303.6
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
275.7
187.0
325.8
266.5
282.1
191.6
333.3
270.7
283.5
190.2
336.2
270.4
282.9
188.0
336.4
269.3
283.1
190.6
335.4
268.6
284.6
195.3
335.3
268.7
285.3
196.7
335.6
270.2
286.8
196.8
337.8
271.5
327.4
289.9
305.6
286.8
194.2
339.1
271.4
328.4
290.1
307.9
_
284.9
189.5
338.7
271.4
327.5
287.4
307.7
_
278.6
188.5
329.5
270.5
326.0
283.7
307.8
_
268.9
190.8
313.6
269.7
325.3
281.2
308.5
_
262.0
191.7
302.6
269.2
326.3
282.1
309.4
_
263.3
190.7
305.2
269.6
327.9
282.8
309.5
_
264.7
188.4
308.4
269.9
Services..........................................................................................
Rent of shelter.............................................................................
Household services less rent of shelter .....................................
Transportation services...............................................................
Medical care services.................................................................
Other services .............................................................................
363.0
107.7
108.1
321.1
410.3
296.0
381.5
113.9
111.2
337.0
435.1
314.1
381.3
113.6
112.7
335.3
433.0
312.0
383.3
114.3
113.2
337.0
435.8
313.0
384.9
115.1
113.2
337.4
438.6
313.8
386.5
115.4
113.5
337.1
440.5
319.7
387.7
116.1
112.1
341.1
443.0
321.4
388.7
116.7
110.8
344.7
445.8
322.5
389.5
117.0
110.8
346.1
448.0
322.9
391.7
117.4
111.4
349.0
451.9
324.8
393.3
117.7
111.8
351.0
456.2
326.1
394.9
118.5
111.6
352.4
460.1
326.6
396.8
119.4
111.6
353.2
462.3
327.6
397.9
119.7
112.3
353.4
464.2
328.2
401.0
119.9
115.2
355.3
466.8
329.2
Special indexes:
All items less food ......................................................................
All items less shelter ..................................................................
All items less homeowners’ costs ..............................................
All items less medical care.........................................................
Commodities less fo o d ...............................................................
Nondurables less food ...............................................................
Nondurables less food and apparel ...........................................
Nondurables................................................................................
Services less rent of shelter.......................................................
Services less medical c a re .........................................................
Energy..........................................................................................
All items less energy ..................................................................
All items less food and energy ..................................................
Commodities less food and energy............................................
Energy commodities ...................................................................
Services less energy...................................................................
311.3
295.1
106.3
307.3
267.0
270.8
311.9
286.6
108.5
355.6
423.6
302.9
301.2
253.1
409.8
356.4
323.3
303.9
109.7
317.7
272.5
277.2
319.2
293.2
113.5
373.3
426.5
314.8
314.4
259.7
409.9
375.9
323.6
304.3
109.8
317.9
273.1
278.4
321.7
293.7
113.7
373.3
436.8
313.9
313.4
259.0
418.7
374.6
324.2
304.4
109.9
318.4
272.4
277.9
321.9
293.5
114.2
375.2
437.1
314.5
314.1
258.2
418.1
376.6
325.0
304.6
110.1
318.9
272.3
278.1
321.1
293.7
114.5
376.7
433.8
315.6
315.3
258.8
414.0
378.6
326.2
305.7
110.4
319.9
273.1
279.6
321.0
294.6
115.0
378.3
432.6
316.8
316.9
260.2
411.2
380.2
327.4
306.3
110.7
320.8
274.4
280.7
322.0
295.1
115.1
379.3
427.1
318.4
318.9
262.0
410.1
382.5
328.5
307.2
111.1
321.9
275.7
282.0
324.0
296.4
115.2
380.1
425.1
319.8
320.4
262.7
415.2
384.8
328.9
307.9
111.3
322.6
275.7
282.0
325.1
297.4
115.4
380.8
426.5
320.5
320.7
262.2
417.9
385.8
329.5
308.8
111.6
323.4
274.7
280.4
324.9
297.7
116.2
382.7
424.7
321.8
321.6
261.8
413.2
387.9
328.5
307.4
111.2
322.2
270.9
274.5
316.8
294.3
116.8
384.0
408.9
322.3
322.3
261.6
386.5
389.4
326.6
305.2
110.5
320.5
265.2
265.6
302.7
289.5
117.1
385.4
381.3
323.3
323.6
262.0
343.0
391.5
325.7
303.6
110.1
319.7
261.2
259.2
292.9
286.3
117.4
387.2
361.8
324.4
324.8
262.1
313.3
393.8
326.7
304.7
110.4
320.6
262.1
260.5
295.2
287.4
117.8
388.3
367.6
325.0
325.3
262.2
319.3
394.5
328.6
306.5
111.1
322.2
263.0
261.8
298.1
288.2
119.2
391.3
380.6
325.5
325.9
262.0
327.1
395.9
Purchasing power of the consumer dollar:
196 7 -$ 1.00 ................................................................................
1957-59-$1.00...........................................................................
32.1
27.6
31.0
26.7
31.0
26.7
31.0
26.6
30.9
26.6
30.8
26.5
30.7
26.4
30.6
26.3
30.5
26.3
30.5
26.2
30.5
26.3
30.7
26.4
30.7
26.4
30.6
26.4
30.5
26.2
All items .........................................................................................
All items (1957-59=100).................................................................
307.6
357.7
318.5
370.4
318.7
370.6
319.1
371.2
319.6
371.8
320.5
372.7
321.3
373.7
322.6
375.1
323.4
376.1
324.3
377.1
323.2
375.8
321.4
373.7
320.4
372.6
321.4
373.7
323.0
375.6
Food and beverages .....................................................................
Food............................................................................................
Food at home ...........................................................................
Cereals and bakery products................................................
Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs................................................
Dairy products........................................................................
Fruits and vegetables.............................................................
Other foods at home..............................................................
Sugar and sweets...............................................................
Fats and o ils ........................................................................
Nonalcoholic beverages......................................................
Other prepared foods..........................................................
Food away from home .............................................................
Alcoholic beverages....................................................................
295.2
302.7
291.2
303.7
266.0
252.2
312.5
352.7
388.6
287.5
444.4
286.4
336.7
225.3
301.8
309.3
295.3
315.4
262.7
256.9
320.3
361.5
398.3
293.9
453.2
295.7
349.7
232.6
301.2
308.8
294.5
315.7
259.3
256.7
323.5
361.3
398.0
295.6
453.0
295.0
350.1
231.0
301.4
309.0
294.6
315.7
259.7
256.6
323.9
361.1
399.8
297.3
449.8
296.1
350.4
231.0
301.6
309.1
294.3
316.8
259.0
256.3
320.6
362.2
401.4
296.5
451.2
297.3
351.5
232.2
301.8
309.3
294.0
317.6
259.9
256.8
313.6
362.9
400.8
294.1
454.1
297.7
353.0
232.6
302.2
309.3
293.7
317.3
260.4
255.9
311.2
363.4
402.2
290.6
455.6
298.3
353.4
239.1
303.4
310.6
295.2
318.2
265.4
255.9
309.4
362.5
400.9
291.8
453.1
298.3
354.4
238.8
305.4
312.8
297.9
320.4
269.2
255.7
319.3
361.6
401.8
289.6
450.4
298.7
355.2
239.1
307.7
315.1
300.9
320.4
270.7
256.0
329.7
366.1
404.7
291.6
461.0
299.4
356.2
240.1
307.5
314.9
300.1
320.9
267.7
256.0
316.0
375.2
408.1
290.8
485.5
300.9
357.3
240.9
307.6
315.0
299.7
321.1
267.2
255.5
314.6
375.6
407.8
289.7
487.4
300.7
358.6
241.4
308.3
315.6
299.9
320.9
263.5
255.5
325.0
376.0
410.9
287.8
487.0
301.6
360.2
242.3
309.0
316.4
300.4
322.1
262.6
255.8
331.6
374.3
410.6
286.6
481.2
302.7
362.0
242.2
309.3
316.6
300.0
324.5
264.2
255.9
323.5
373.9
410.9
286.4
479.5
303.0
363.5
242.9
Housing ..........................................................................................
Shelter .........................................................................................
Renters’ costs (12/84=100)...................................................
Rent, residential.....................................................................
Other renters' costs ..............................................................
Homeowners’ costs (12/84 = 100)...........................................
Owners’ equivalent rent (1 2/8 4=1 0 0 )..................................
Household insurance (12/84 = 100)......................................
Maintenance and repairs..........................................................
Maintenance and repair services ..........................................
Maintenance and repair commodities....................................
Fuel and other utilities................................................................
Fuels .........................................................................................
Fuel oil, coal, and bottled g a s ...............................................
Gas (piped) and electricity ....................................................
Other utilities and public services ............................................
Household furnishings and operations.......................................
Housefurnishings......................................................................
Housekeeping supplies.............................................................
Housekeeping services.............................................................
329.2
350.0
343.3
370.4
-
-
248.6
372.4
356.3
403.5
257.2
388.6
485.0
644.3
444.1
231.2
239.1
197.0
300.2
328.0
263.7
397.9
103.1
103.0
103.2
364.1
415.0
261.1
394.7
487.5
622.0
451.6
241.6
243.4
197.6
310.7
340.2
344.0
369.5
262.7
401.0
102.8
102.8
103.4
362.9
417.0
258.4
400.9
497.7
614.3
465.1
242.0
243.3
197.6
310.8
339.5
345.0
371.5
264.1
405.2
103.4
103.4
103.5
363.4
415.3
260.0
401.2
497.0
604.2
466.3
243.7
242.6
196.2
310.3
341.0
346.2
374.0
265.7
409.6
104.1
104.1
103.7
365.6
419.6
260.6
400.1
494.0
596.9
464.2
245.1
243.1
196.6
310.4
342.2
347.2
375.0
266.8
409.8
104.3
104.3
104.3
364.4
416.8
260.5
401.9
496.7
604.3
465.9
245.6
243.2
196.5
311.0
342.9
347.5
377.1
_
268.9
411.6
104.8
104.8
105.2
364.6
417.4
260.5
396.3
487.2
618.1
452.0
245.7
244.5
197.7
312.7
343.9
348.3
379.3
270.7
408.0
105.5
105.5
105.2
367.7
420.9
262.7
393.2
481.0
644.3
439.5
246.8
245.1
198.3
313.5
344.5
349.1
380.4
_
271.5
397.5
105.9
105.9
105.7
368.5
420.1
264.2
394.3
483.1
659.9
438.8
246.7
245.2
197.8
315.0
345.0
350.1
381.8
_
272.5
400.8
106.3
106.3
106.3
373.2
426.2
267.2
395.6
484.1
652.7
441.4
248.3
245.1
197.3
315.8
345.6
349.7
382.9
_
272.8
403.5
106.6
106.6
107.8
374.0
426.5
268.1
390.9
475.7
593.6
443.2
248.8
245.3
197.2
316.4
346.3
350.1
385.0
_
274.1
405.4
107.4
107.3
108.2
364.7
416.6
261.1
386.3
467.1
552.8
441.2
249.9
246.0
198.5
315.5
346.6
351.1
388.1
_
277.0
411.6
108.1
108.1
108.5
364.6
419.2
259.4
382.6
459.1
521.5
438.0
252.1
246.0
198.1
316.3
347.1
351.6
388.8
_
277.5
411.3
108.3
108.3
109.0
363.8
420.0
258.0
383.0
459.7
499.9
443.0
252.2
246.1
198.4
315.7
347.4
354.3
389.4
_
278.5
415.5
108.4
108.4
109.1
363.2
422.6
255.7
394.9
477.3
489.9
465.7
255.8
246.2
198.2
316.8
347.8
199.1
205.0
203.7
201.8
204.3
208.7
210.2
210.2
208.1
204.1
203.1
205.2
206.1
205.1
203.0
C O N S U M E R P R IC E IN D E X F O R U R B A N W A G E E A R N E R S
A N D C L E R IC A L W O R K E R S :
Apparel and upkeep......................................................................
See footnotes at end of table.
84
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
-
30. Continued— Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, by expenditure category and commodity or
service group; and CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, all items
(1967=100, unless otherwise indicated)
1986
1985
Annual
Series
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
195.1
201.8
178.2
314.9
211.0
202.5
321.6
196.6
203.5
180.0
314.8
212.6
202.4
323.2
196.5
203.7
178.3
320.7
215.9
202.5
323.6
194.1
202.2
174.5
317.3
213.6
202.4
324.4
189.4
198.8
166.1
332.7
209.9
203.5
327.2
188.2
196.8
165.2
328.6
208.4
204.2
328.1
190.4
198.0
169.0
329.6
210.7
203.5
329.0
191.2
199.3
169.3
331.3
212.1
204.1
330.2
190.1
200.0
165.9
334.3
212.0
203.8
330.9
187.7
198.0
162.0
335.6
210.6
204.5
331.9
322.3
318.0
213.5
213.9
374.0
383.8
383.7
352.9
287.6
204.9
312.1
393.5
321.1
316.6
213.5
213.8
374.3
379.5
379.2
354.5
285.2
205.6
308.9
396.8
322.2
317.6
215.3
215.5
375.3
376.3
375.8
356.9
289.2
205.0
314.1
399.3
324.6
320.1
217.5
217.8
376.4
378.7
378.1
357.2
293.7
203.7
320.2
400.1
325.3
320.8
218.6
218.8
375.6
379.6
378.9
359.0
294.7
204.3
321.3
400.2
325.1
320.2
219.0
219.2
374.1
375.3
374.6
359.4
296.9
205.6
323.7
408.6
320.1
314.8
219.4
219.7
370.7
353.0
352.3
360.4
298.4
205.4
325.7
412.6
310.3
304.5
219.4
219.5
367.2
309.6
308.8
360.9
300.6
206.0
328.3
412.0
303.5
297.4
220.2
220.4
364.8
280.1
279.1
362.2
300.4
204.6
328.5
413.0
305.9
299.9
222.0
222.3
363.6
290.3
289.6
362.8
299.8
204.9
327.7
413.8
308.7
302.8
223.2
223.4
362.5
300.6
300.3
363.6
301.2
203.9
329.6
415.1
402.0
257.4
433.3
368.5
514.4
404.5
259.0
436.1
370.4
518.4
406.3
259.8
438.1
372.1
520.7
408.5
260.9
440.6
373.7
524.4
410.9
262.2
443.2
375.8
527.5
412.6
262.3
445.4
377.6
530.4
416.0
264.1
449.2
379.3
536.9
420.0
267.0
453.5
382.2
543.0
423.5
268.8
457.3
385.6
547.3
425.7
270.7
459.5
387.4
550.0
427.3
271.7
461.3
388.8
552.3
429.6
272.5
464.0
390.8
555.8
260.1
253.9
272.0
260.9
254.5
273.2
260.8
254.3
273.3
261.6
256.0
272.6
263.0
257.1
274.6
263.7
257.2
276.3
263.0
255.7
276.8
265.4
257.8
280.0
266.5
258.3
282.0
266.5
258.3
282.1
266.9
258.4
283.0
267.3
258.7
283.6
268.4
259.8
284.8
322.7
328.1
279.6
279.0
280.5
399.3
355.7
410.1
319.5
324.4
279.2
278.2
280.7
391.6
349.9
401.9
321.8
329.7
279.9
279.2
280.9
392.5
350.6
402.9
322.9
331.1
280.9
280.0
282.2
393.2
351.2
403.6
328.7
332.4
281.8
281.1
282.8
414.5
366.9
426.1
330.1
334.0
282.7
282.0
283.7
416.5
369.2
428.1
330.5
334.3
283.1
281.9
284.8
417.3
369.3
428.9
331.9
337.1
284.0
283.3
285.2
417.4
369.4
429.1
334.9
342.4
285.9
285.9
286.4
418.9
375.6
429.7
336.1
344.4
286.8
286.7
287.4
419.9
378.4
430.3
337.0
345.2
288.0
288.1
288.4
420.1
379.0
430.5
337.6
346.0
288.2
288.4
288.4
421.2
379.1
431.8
338.0
346.0
288.6
288.6
289.0
422.0
379.1
432.8
338.4
346.7
288.6
287.6
290.0
422.9
380.2
433.6
307.6
280.4
295.2
269.3
277.5
186.6
327.0
261.1
318.5
286.5
301.8
319.1
286.4
301.4
319.6
286.3
301.6
320.5
286.8
301.8
321.3
287.6
302.2
322.6
288.9
303.4
323.4
289.7
305.4
324.3
289.8
307.7
320.4
280.4
308.3
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
285.0
187.8
337.6
263.8
285.1
190.4
336.6
263.1
286.5
195.1
336.4
263.1
287.0
196.6
336.5
264.5
288.5
196.5
338.8
265.7
288.7
194.1
340.1
265.7
286.9
189.4
339.6
265.6
323.2
287.0
307.5
280.1
188.2
330.1
264.6
321.4
283.1
307.6
283.8
191.3
334.2
265.2
318.7
286.8
301.2
277.7
285.4
190.0
337.2
265.1
269.6
190.4
313.2
263.7
262.0
191.2
301.6
263.3
321.4
281.3
309.0
263.6
190.1
304.5
263.5
323.0
282.0
309.3
265.2
187.7
308.0
263.6
358.0
377.3
103.2
102.6
332.2
432.7
310.1
377.4
102.9
104.2
330.6
430.7
308.4
379.2
103.5
104.5
332.2
433.3
309.3
380.7
104.3
104.6
332.4
436.1
310.1
382.0
104.5
104.8
331.4
438.1
315.0
383.0
105.1
103.3
335.5
440.6
316.7
384.2
105.8
102.1
339.3
443.2
317.8
385.1
106.1
102.0
340.5
445.4
318.3
387.2
106.4
102.6
343.3
449.2
320.4
388.8
106.7
103.0
345.4
453.5
321.6
390.5
107.4
102.8
347.0
457.3
322.1
392.2
108.3
102.7
347.5
459.5
322.9
393.2
108.5
103.4
347.3
461.3
323.6
396.4
108.7
106.4
348.9
464.0
324.6
350.5
423.3
298.3
295.8
250.5
410.5
350.8
319.4
303.4
101.8
314.3
272.8
279.0
320.3
293.9
102.6
369.0
426.3
309.9
308.7
256.8
410.9
371.1
319.8
303.9
102.0
314.6
273.6
280.4
322.9
294.4
102.8
369.3
436.9
309.1
307.8
256.2
419.9
369.9
320.3
304.0
102.0
314.9
272.8
280.0
323.2
294.3
103.3
371.1
437.2
309.5
308.3
255.3
419.6
371.9
320.9
304.0
102.1
315.3
272.7
280.2
322.4
294.5
103.5
372.5
433.9
310.4
309.4
255.8
415.7
373.7
321.9
304.8
102.4
316.1
273.4
281.5
322.3
295.2
103.8
373.6
432.5
311.5
310.7
257.2
412.6
374.9
322.9
305.4
102.6
316.9
274.5
282.4
323.1
295.7
103.9
374.5
426.6
313.0
312.7
258.8
411.2
377.3
324.2
306.4
103.0
318.1
275.9
283.8
325.0
297.1
103.9
375.5
425.4
314.5
314.2
259.5
416.3
379.8
324.6
307.2
103.2
318.9
275.9
283.9
326.3
298.2
104.2
376.2
426.8
315.3
314.6
259.2
418.9
380.8
325.1
307.9
103.5
319.6
275.0
282.3
325.9
298.4
104.9
378.2
424.7
316.5
315.4
258.8
414.1
382.9
323.8
306.4
103.0
318.3
270.9
276.1
317.5
295.0
105.5
379.5
408.1
316.9
316.1
258.5
387.3
384.5
321.5
303.8
102.3
316.2
264.9
266.4
302.6
289.8
105.7
381.0
379.0
317.8
317.2
258.7
343.:
386.5
320.2
302.1
101.8
315.2
260.7
259.4
292.2
286.3
105.9
382.7
358.4
318.8
318.3
258.8
312.:
388.8
321.2
303.0
102.1
316.1
261.6
260.9
294.9
287.5
106.2
383.6
364.6
319.2
318.6
258.8
319.8
389.4
323.2
304.8
102.7
317.7
262.6
262.4
298.0
288.4
107.6
386.8
378.1
319.7
319.1
258.5
328.1
390.8
32.5
28.0
31. c
27.0
31.*
27.0
31.:
26.9
31.:
26.9
31.2
26.8
31.1
26.8
31. C
26.7
30.:
26.6
30.f
26.5
30.Î
26.6
31.1
26.8
31.2
26.8
31.1
26.8
31.0
26.6
June
July
Aug.
191.3
198.2
171.3
311.7
212.5
203.1
318.5
190.0
196.6
168.4
313.5
214.1
204.0
317.6
187.8
194.8
165.5
306.4
211.6
204.5
319.0
190.4
197.3
169.9
311.2
210.5
205.2
320.5
313.9
310.1
207.3
207.9
375.7
372.2
371.8
342.2
274.2
203.9
295.4
376.8
321.6
317.4
214.2
214.5
379.7
375.4
375.0
352.6
287.7
204.7
312.3
391.7
323.6
319.6
213.6
214.0
380.3
386.2
386.0
351.5
286.9
205.9
310.9
388.4
323.5
319.3
213.6
214.0
376.7
387.2
387.0
352.2
287.7
204.3
312.4
392.1
Medical ca re ..................................................................................
Medical care commodities..........................................................
Medical care services.................................................................
Professional services................................................................
Other medical care services....................................................
377.7
239.7
407.9
346.5
484.7
401.2
256.3
432.7
367.7
513.9
399.8
256.7
430.7
366.8
510.5
Entertainment................................................................................
Entertainment commodities ........................................................
Entertainment services...............................................................
251.2
247.7
258.5
260.1
254.2
271.6
Other goods and services .............................................................
Tobacco products.......................................................................
Personal care..............................................................................
Toilet goods and personal care appliances.............................
Personal care services .............................................................
Personal and educational expenses...........................................
School books and supplies......................................................
Personal and educational services..........................................
304.9
309.7
269.4
270.3
268.8
368.2
327.5
378.2
All ite m s...........................................................................................
Commodities..................................................................................
Food and beverages...................................................................
Commodities less food and beverages......................................
Nondurables less food and beverages ...................................
Apparel commodities.............................................................
Nondurables less food, beverages, and apparel ..................
Durables....................................................................................
Services..........................................................................................
Rent of shelter (12/84—100).....................................................
Household services less rent of shelter (12/84—100)..............
Transportation services..............................................................
Medical care services.................................................................
Other services ............................................................................
1984
1985
Apparel commodities..................................................................
Men's and boys’ apparel..........................................................
Women’s and girls’ apparel .....................................................
Infants’ and toddlers’ apparel..................................................
Footwear...................................................................................
Other apparel commodities......................................................
Apparel services..........................................................................
186.6
192.9
165.0
297.6
210.0
204.5
302.9
Transportation ...............................................................................
Private transportation..................................................................
New vehicles.............................................................................
New ca rs................................................................................
Used c a rs .................................................................................
Motor fuel .................................................................................
Gasoline.................................................................................
Maintenance and repair............................................................
Other private transportation.....................................................
Other private transportation commodities.............................
Other private transportation services....................................
Public transportation...................................................................
Special indexes:
All items less food ......................................................................
All items less shelter ..................................................................
All items less homeowners’ costs (12/84—100).......................
All items less medical care.........................................................
Commodities less fo o d ...............................................................
Nondurables less food ...............................................................
Nondurables less food and apparel ...........................................
Nondurables................................................................................
Services less rent of shelter (12/84 = 100)................................
Services less medical c a re ........................................................
Energy........................................................................................
All items less energy .................................................................
All items less food and energy .................................................
Commodities less food and energy...........................................
Purchasing power of the consumer dollar:
1 967-81.00...............................................................................
1957-59-81.00 ..........................................................................
-
317.2
407.9
292.9
307.5
295.1
-
304.0
267.1
272.6
313.2
287.4
-
-
Sept.
-
- Data not available.
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
85
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
31.
August 1986 •
Current Labor Statistics: Price Data
Consumer Price Index: U.S. city average and available local area data: all items
(1967=100, unless otherwise indicated)
Urban Wage Earners
All Urban Consumers
Area1
Pricing
sche
dule2
index
Chicago, III.-Northwestern
Ind...........................................
Detroit, Mich............................
Los Angeles-Long Beach,
Anaheim, Calif........................
New York, N.Y.-Northeastern
N.J..........................................
Philadelphia, Pa.-N.J................
Anchorage, Alaska
(10/67 - 100) .....................
Baltimore, Md..........................
Boston, Mass...........................
Cincinnati, Ohio-Ky.-Ind...........
Denver-Boulder, Colo..............
Miami, Fla. (11/77 - 100).....
Milwaukee, Wis........................
Northeast, Pa...........................
Portland, Oreg.-Wash..............
St. Louis, Mo.-lll.......................
San Diego, Calif.......................
Seattle-Everett, Wash.............
Washington, D.C.-Md.-Va........
Alanta, Ga................................
Buffalo, N.Y.............................
Cleveland, O h io .....................
Dallas-Ft. Worth, Tex..............
Honolulu, Hawaii....................
Houston, Tex...........................
Kansas City, Mo.-Kansas .......
Minneapolis-St. Paul,
Minn.-Wis................................
Pittsburgh, Pa..........................
San Francisco-Oakland, Calif.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
327.9
318.7
319.1
323.2
321.4
320.4
321.4
323.0
324.2
321.7
330.4
321.0
310.9
307.4
311.1
308.3
312.8
312.3
309.7
309.3
309.1
308.1
309.6
311.0
315.6
310.2
326.8
329.4
331.3
314.1
315.8
320.4
321.6
320.2
322.7
324.5
321.4
317.8
320.6
318.9
322.8
321.7
306.3
317.2
306.5
318.6
314.7
322.8
314.5
321.4
313.2
319.7
312.3
320.8
314.4
323.5
291.2
331.1
324.9
329.4
355.7
174.5
329.1
309.3
315.0
319.2
379.2
325.0
329.1
-
288.9
329.1
322.6
332.0
356.3
173.0
332.0
309.2
314.6
318.6
382.8
323.5
329.6
-
-
276.0
323.4
315.7
323.2
355.9
172.7
350.4
305.7
303.2
316.6
336.9
309.1
325.9
-
284.4
329.5
322.3
321.8
350.1
175.1
347.2
308.3
304.3
315.0
341.9
311.4
330.5
“
“
*
281.8
326.8
319.3
324.8
350.3
173.4
350.6
308.1
303.2
314.2
345.2
309.4
330.2
“
“
_
334.9
308.0
346.9
341.4
299.0
330.0
320.7
_
-
338.5
308.9
350.6
344.7
299.2
333.3
322.9
326.0
293.7
325.3
333.5
300.4
335.0
310.5
-
334.3
295.8
328.3
340.4
308.5
334.3
310.1
-
331.7
292.7
324.4
334.1
306.0
327.7
308.9
-
335.5
294.0
328.2
337.4
306.5
330.9
311.4
339.9
330.1
341.1
_
-
338.4
328.1
339.3
342.1
328.6
344.0
332.3
308.3
328.7
_
-
334.9
311.4
336.0
_
-
“
332.3
307.8
333.2
_
“
336.2
308.3
338.1
174.5
175.4
176.6
177.5
-
173.7
173.9
175.1
176.8
-
174.2
176.1
176.3
178.7
168.4
171.0
173.7
172.8
-
172.3
171.8
176.1
175.4
“
171.1
170.0
174.1
174.5
-
171.6
172.2
175.2
176.3
174.7
178.7
176.9
174.7
174.0
-
173.9
177.4
175.6
173.4
172.7
-
175.7
178.9
177.0
174.7
173.4
167.2
173.2
172.3
172.9
173.5
-
170.5
175.5
174.2
175.0
175.2
-
169.3
173.8
172.7
173.4
173.6
-
171.0
175.2
174.1
174.6
174.2
171.8
180.3
176.8
181.8
164.2
172.8
174.2
172.2
168.1
174.0
177.C
175.5
-
166.9
172.1
174.E
174.9
175.2
174.1
178.5
178.3
170.5
169.0
172.2
176.8
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
-
322.3
322.8
327.5
326.0
325.3
326.3
-
324.1
317.0
324.4
318.0
326.4
322.9
323.9
320.0
323.7
318.8
M
319.3
321.3
326.6
328.2
M
M
313.2
314.2
313.5
315.5
322.3
320.1
322.4
319.1
-
283.1
324.0
317.7
330.0
360.3
171.4
331.1
306.6
312.9
319.9
372.8
322.0
323.3
-
-
336.9
310.1
350.2
347.0
301.2
337.2
321.1
-
M
M
-
1 10/67
1
1
1
1
1 11/77
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
_
-
_
-
328.0
307.3
346.4
339.6
293.5
337.6
320.1
-
_
-
336.7
325.9
333.2
Region3
Northeast.............................
North Central.......................
S outh....................................
West ....................................
2
2
2
2
12/77
12/77
12/77
12/77
170.4
174.2
173.8
174.6
-
Population size class3
A-1 .......................................
A -2 .......................................
B ...........................................
C ..........................................
D ..........................................
2
2
2
2
2
12/77
12/77
12/77
12/77
12/77
170.9
176.0
174.7
172.3
171.9
-
2
2
2
2
12/77
12/77
12/77
11/77
167.5
177.6
174.1
176.1
2
2
2
2
12/77
12/77
12/77
12/77
173.5
172.6
175.3
176.2
W est..................................
July
July
2
2
2
Region/population size class
cross classification3
Class A:
Northeast .........................
North Central...................
June
June
U.S. city average...................
-
-
-
-
_
-
1986
1985
1986
1985
171.8
179.2
177.3
179.8
-
-
-
_
171.0
177.8
175.5
179.6
-
_
_
-
June
-
-
-
Class B:
W est..................................
See footnotes at end of table.
86
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
176.4
173.7
178.2
177.6
174.7
172.1
177.0
176.7
_
-
173.-*
169.7
174.6
178.2
_
171.7
167.7
173.2
177.1
-
-
167.7
174.7
176.1
177.1
172.2
169.7
174.6
178.7
31. Continued— Consumer Price Index: U.S. city average and available local area data: all items
(1967=100, unless otherwise indicated)
Urban Wage Earners
All Urban Consumers
Pricing Other
sche index
dule2
base
Area'
June
July
Class C:
Northeast ..........................
North Central ....................
South .................................
W est...................................
2
2
2
2
12/77
12/77
12/77
12/77
179.0
169.6
172.8
168.4
-
Class D:
Northeast ..........................
North Central.....................
South .................................
W est...................................
2
2
2
2
12/77
12/77
12/77
12/77
173.7
170.4
172.2
172.5
-
-
-
-
"
Feb.
Mar.
183.1
170.4
175.3
171.1
-
178.9
170.7
174.7
174.8
-
Apr.
May
-
183.0
168.5
173.6
170.5
-
-
-
-
177.9
170.0
173.2
172.6
-
~
1986
1985
1986
1985
-
June
June
Mar.
Feb.
July
Apr.
May
June
”
187.4
165.1
174.3
168.9
-
-
187.8
167.1
176.6
169.6
187.8
167.2
175.2
169.9
“
178.6
172.4
176.0
176.3
-
177.2
171.4
174.0
173.9
-
175.5
172.6
174.6
175.4
183.4
170.7
174.5
171.6
183.7
166.7
174.5
167.2
-
176.1
171.3
173.9
174.1
173.8
172.5
174.0
174.2
A
"
A-2 - 1,250,000 to 4,000,000.
B - 385,000 to 1,250,000
C - 75,000 to 385,000.
D - Less than 75,000.
Population size class A is the aggregation of population size classes A-1
and A-2.
- Data not available.
NOTE: Local area CPI indexes are byproducts of the national CPI
program. Because each local index is a small subset of the national index,
it has a smaller sample size and is, therefore, subject to substantially more
sampling and other measurement error than the national index. As a result,
local area indexes show greater volatility than the national index, although
their long-term trends are quite similar. Therefore, the Bureau of Labor
Statistics strongly urges users to consider adopting the national average
CPI for use in escalator clauses.
1 Area is generally the Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA),
exclusive of farms. L.A.-Long Beach, Anaheim, Calif, is a combination of
two SMSA’s, and N.Y., N.Y.-Northeastern N.J. and Chicago, III.Northwestern Ind. are the more extensive Standard Consolidated Areas.
Area definitions are those established by the Office of Management and
Budget in 1973, except for Denver-Boulder, Colo, which does not include
Douglas County. Definitions do not include revisions made since 1973.
2 Foods, fuels, and several other items priced every month in all areas;
most other goods and services priced as indicated:.
M - Every month.
1 - January, March, May, July, September, and November.
2 - February, April, June, August, October, and December.
3 Regions are defined as the four Census regions.
The population size classes are aggregations of areas which have urban
population as defined:
A-1 - More than 4,000,000.
32. Annual data: Consumer Price Index all items and major groups
Series
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers:
All items:
Food and beverages:
Housing
Apparel and upkeep:
Transportation:
Medical care:
Entertainment:
Other goods and services:
Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and
Clerical Workers
All items:
Percent ^hano*»
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
181.5
6.5
195.4
7.7
217.4
11.3
246.8
13.5
272.4
10.4
289.1
6.1
298.4
3.2
311.1
4.3
322.2
3.6
188.0
6.0
206.3
9.7
228.5
10.8
248.0
8.5
267.3
7.8
278.2
4.1
284.4
2.2
295.1
3.8
302.0
2.3
186.5
6.8
202.8
8.7
227.6
12.2
263.3
15.7
293.5
11.5
314.7
7.2
323.1
2.7
336.5
4.1
349.9
4.0
154.2
4.5
159.6
3.5
166.6
4.4
178.4
7.1
186.9
4.8
191.8
2.6
196.5
2.5
200.2
1.9
206.0
2.9
177.2
7.1
185.5
4.7
212.0
14.3
249.7
17.8
280.0
12.1
291.5
4.1
298.4
2.4
311.7
4.5
319.9
2.6
202.4
9.6
219.4
8.4
239.7
9.3
265.9
10.9
294.5
10.8
328.7
11.6
357.3
8.7
379.5
6.2
403.1
6.2
167.7
4.9
176.6
5.3
188.5
6.7
205.3
'8.9
221.4
7.8
235.8
6.5
246.0
4.3
255.1
3.7
265.0
3.9
172.2
5.8
183.3
6.4
196.7
7.3
214.5
9.0
235.7
9.9
259.9
10.3
288.3
10.9
307.7
6.7
326.6
6.1
181.5
6.5
195.3
7.6
217.7
11.5
247.0
13.5
272.3
10.2
288.6
6.0
297.4
3.0
307.6
3.4
318.5
3.5
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
33.
August 1986 •
Current Labor Statistics:
Price Data
Producer Price Indexes, by stage of processing
(1967 = 100)
Annual average
1985
1986
Grouping
Finished goods ..........................................
Finished consumer goods ........................
Finished consumer foods.......................
Finished consumer goods excluding
foods .....................................................
Nondurable goods less food ...............
Durable goods .....................................
Capital equipment.....................................
Intermediate materials, supplies, and
components...............................................
Materials and components for
manufacturing ..........................................
Materials for food manufacturing...........
Materials for nondurable manufacturing .
Materials for durable manufacturing......
Components for manufacturing..............
Materials and components for
construction..............................................
Processed fuels and lubricants.................
Containers.................................................
Supplies.....................................................
Crude materials for further processing ...
Foodstuffs and feedstuffs .......................
Nonfood materials'...................................
Special groupings
Finished goods, excluding fo o d s.................
Finished energy goods ................................
Finished goods less energy ........................
Finished consumer goods less energy.......
Finished goods less food and energy ........
Finished consumer goods less food and
energy.........................................................
Consumer nondurable goods less food and
energy.........................................................
Intermediate materials less foods and
fe e d s...........................................................
Intermediate foods and feeds.....................
Intermediate energy goods .........................
Intermediate goods less energy..................
Intermediate materials less foods and
energy.........................................................
Crude energy materials................................
Crude materials less energy .......................
Crude nonfood materials less energy.........
1 Crude nonfood materials except fuel.
Digitized for 88
FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
1984
1985
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
291.1
290.3
273.3
293.7
291.8
271.2
294.8
293.1
271.2
293.5
291.4
268.7
290.0
288.2
265.7
294.7
292.3
268.2
296.4
294.4
271.8
297.2
295.4
275.0
296.0
293.8
275.0
291.9
288.4
272.0
288.1
283.5
272.2
286.9
281.6
272.4
289.0
284.2
274.9
288.9
284.1
275.1
294.1
337.3
236.8
294.0
297.3
339.3
241.5
300.5
299.2
342.4
241.9
300.8
297.8
340.0
241.8
301.0
294.7
340.3
234.5
296.3
299.4
340.3
244.9
303.5
300.7
342.6
245.0
303.8
300.7
343.2
244.3
303.7
298.3
339.6
243.5
303.9
291.8
328.0
243.9
304.3
284.4
315.0
243.9
304.3
281.4
308.6
245.4
305.6
284.1
312.9
245.8
305.8
283.8
312.6
245.8
305.8
320.0
318.7
318.6
317.9
317.7
317.6
318.1
318.9
317.4
313.5
309.4
307.0
306.8
307.1
301.8
271.1
290.5
325.1
287.5
299.5
258.8
285.9
320.2
291.5
299.8
260.3
285.8
320.9
291.6
299.1
253.0
285.8
320.3
291.9
298.4
249.9
285.1
319.2
292.1
298.0
252.3
283.3
318.6
292.3
297.7
254.0
282.8
317.5
292.3
297.9
254.3
283.1
317.6
292.4
297.1
252.8
283.8
313.4
293.1
296.5
249.2
282.4
313.1
293.6
296.4
246.3
281.9
313.6
294.2
295.2
244.6
279.0
313.1
294.1
295.3
248.6
278.0
313.2
294.1
295.3
247.8
278.0
313.3
294.2
310.3
566.2
302.3
283.4
315.2
548.9
311.2
284.2
316.9
544.0
311.4
283.6
316.5
539.8
310.3
284.1
315.6
542.4
309.9
284.5
315.5
542.6
310.4
285.1
315.0
550.5
309.8
285.6
315.7
557.2
310.6
285.7
316.2
540.8
311.2
286.6
316.5
500.8
310.9
286.4
316.8
453.9
311.2
286.7
318.0
430.2
312.5
287.0
318.3
425.7
313.9
287.2
317.7
429.3
313.6
287.3
330.8
259.5
380.5
306.1
235.0
355.3
303.9
231.6
353.5
295.3
221.0
351.2
291.8
215.4
352.2
297.8
224.6
352.8
304.7
236.6
352.0
304.3
236.8
351.6
301.0
231.7
352.4
289.0
227.2
321.8
280.9
224.0
293.2
272.8
220.1
280.8
278.9
228.9
278.8
274.9
226.1
279.4
294.8
750.3
265.1
257.8
262.3
299.0
720.9
269.2
261.3
268.7
300.5
733.8
269.7
261.9
269.4
299.5
719.9
269.0
260.9
269.4
295.9
718.2
265.5
257.7
265.7
301.3
716.5
270.5
262.1
271.6
302.4
729.5
271.6
263.4
271.8
302.4
733.8
272.2
264.3
271.4
300.7
700.9
272.7
264.8
272.1
296.3
629.3
272.2
264.0
272.5
291.1
551.1
272.3
264.2
272.6
289.4
511.3
273.2
265.0
273.7
291.3
532.7
274.2
266.2
274.2
291.1
531.5
274.2
266.2
274.1
245.9
252.1
252.9
252.9
249.6
254.9
255.0
254.6
255.5
256.0
256.1
257.1
257.7
257.6
239.0
246.2
247.4
247.3
247.9
248.3
248.5
248.3
250.5
251.1
251.3
251.8
252.5
252.3
325.0
253.1
545.0
303.8
325.0
232.8
528.3
304.0
325.0
231.7
523.8
304.3
324.5
227.1
519.8
303.9
324.4
225.4
522.3
303.4
324.1
228.6
522.2
303.4
324.5
231.4
529.3
303.2
325.3
232.7
536.2
303.5
323.6
232.6
520.0
303.4
319.7
228.9
482.0
303.0
315.5
227.6
437.4
303.2
312.9
226.8
414.9
302.8
312.5
229.4
410.5
303.0
312.8
229.0
413.9
302.9
303.6
305.2
305.6
305.5
305.0
304.6
304.2
304.5
304.3
304.2
304.4
304.0
304.0
303.9
785.2
255.5
266.1
748.1
233.2
249.7
752.6
230.1
247.2
742.9
221.8
245.8
743.2
217.9
246.7
743.1
224.7
246.5
737.1
233.2
244.6
735.6
233.0
242.9
732.8
229.8
245.8
662.9
226.5
246.5
618.4
224.0
245.6
570.7
221.8
249.1
571.6
228.5
249.3
554.2
226.5
250.0
34.
Producer Price indexes, by durability of product
(1967 = 100)
1986
1985
Annual average
Grouping
1984
1985
July
Aug.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
Total durable goods....................................
Total nondurable goods...............................
293.6
323.3
297.3
317.2
297.8
317.3
297.8
314.1
295.2
313.0
298.8
314.3
298.5
317.6
298.5
318.8
298.1
316.8
298.4
308.4
298.7
300.6
299.5
295.7
299.7
297.9
299.6
297.4
Total manufactures......................................
Durable......................................................
Nondurable ................................................
302.9
293.9
312.3
304.3
298.1
310.5
304.6
298.7
310.6
303.8
298.6
309.0
302.2
296.0
308.4
304.4
299.7
309.2
305.4
299.5
311.4
306.0
299.5
312.5
304.8
299.0
310.6
301.1
299.3
302.9
297.3
299.5
294.7
296.0
300.3
291.2
296.9
300.5
292.8
297.0
300.5
293.1
Total raw or slightly processed goods .......
Durable......................................................
Nondurable ................................................
346.6
266.7
351.4
327.9
252.2
332.4
327.5
247.6
332.3
320.2
249.7
324.4
317.6
249.7
321.6
320.6
248.1
324.9
326.2
245.2
331.2
327.6
244.3
332.7
326.0
248.2
330.6
316.3
251.2
320.2
310.4
251.5
313.8
302.0
252.7
304.7
305.6
252.0
308.7
302.6
250.9
305.5
35.
Sept.
Annual data: Producer Price Indexes, by stage of processing
(1967 = 100)
Index
Finished goods:
T o ta l....................................................................
Consumer goods.............................................
Capital equipment ...........................................
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
181.7
180.7
184.6
195.9
194.9
199.2
217.7
217.9
216.5
247.0
248.9
239.8
269.8
271.3
264.3
280.7
281.0
279.4
285.2
284.6
287.2
291.1
290.3
294.0
293.7
291.8
300.5
Intermediate materials, supplies, and
components:
T o ta l....................................................................
Materials and components for
manufacturing.................................................
Materials and components for construction ....
Processed fuels and lubricants.......................
Containers.......................................................
Supplies...........................................................
201.5
215.6
243.2
280.3
306.0
310.4
312.3
320.0
318.7
195.4
203.4
282.5
188.3
188.7
208.7
224.7
295.3
202.8
198.5
234.4
247.4
364.8
226.8
218.2
265.7
268.3
503.0
254.5
244.5
286.1
287.6
595.4
276.1
263.8
289.8
293.7
591.7
285.6
272.1
293.4
301.8
564.8
286.6
277.1
301.8
310.3
566.2
302.3
283.4
299.5
315.2
548.9
311.2
284.2
Crude materials for further processing:
Total ....................................................................
Foodstuffs and feedstuffs ...............................
Nonfood materials except fuel .......................
Fuel .................................................................
209.2
192.1
212.2
372.1
234.4
216.2
233.1
426.8
274.3
247.9
284.5
507.6
304.6
259.2
346.1
615.0
329.0
257.4
413.7
751.2
319.5
247.8
376.8
886.1
323.6
252.2
372.2
931.5
330.8
259.5
380.5
931.3
306.1
235.0
355.3
909.6
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
89
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
36.
August 1986 •
Current Labor Statistics: Price Data
U.S. export price indexes by Standard International Trade Classification
(June 1977=100, unless otherwise indicated)
C a te g o r y
1984
1983
1974
SITO
Sept.
Dec.
Mar.
June
1986
1985
Sept.
Dec.
Mar.
June
Sept.
Dec.
Mar.
100.0
99.5
100.2
101.5
99.3
98.1
97.5
97.5
96.5
96.7
97.0
0
01
03
04
05
08
09
113.1
100.8
97.7
111.5
114.8
121.4
102.8
108.8
101.2
100.4
105.6
116.1
117.4
101.7
106.2
108.9
99.8
102.7
116.2
106.9
104.9
109.6
108.7
98.7
107.4
126.8
98.8
110.6
103.5
105.6
98.0
101.2
125.5
83.5
109.5
96.5
104.4
98.7
92.9
114.6
82.4
108.4
95.8
103.9
101.0
92.4
119.4
72.8
110.6
94.0
104.7
103.6
90.3
120.1
68.6
109.2
90.2
106.1
102.6
82.6
126.8
75.7
108.1
93.6
112.2
101.8
87.1
118.8
83.4
107.7
90.5
111.5
102.2
82.1
115.2
88.5
106.0
1
11
12
100.0
100.0
100.0
101.5
103.3
101.4
101.6
102.3
101.6
101.9
102.9
101.8
102.8
103.3
102.7
101.3
103.7
101.1
99.9
104.0
99.5
100.1
105.3
99.6
99.7
101.8
99.5
98.6
100.9
98.4
95.6
101.9
95.1
Raw hides and skins (6/80-100) ............................................................
Oilseeds and oleaginous fruit (9 /77=100)...............................................
Crude rubber (including synthetic and reclaimed) (9/83 = 100)...............
W ood.........................................................................................................
Pulp and waste paper (6/83 = 100) ..........................................................
Textile fibers..............................................................................................
Crude fertilizers and minerals...................................................................
Metalliferous ores and metal scrap ..........................................................
2
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
114.6
129.2
105.6
100.0
128.7
103.5
117.3
144.8
100.0
112.2
135.2
96.8
102.2
129.8
106.0
123.1
144.8
96.7
112.5
145.6
93.9
103.3
131.1
112.5
120.5
146.6
100.2
118.3
154.7
104.3
106.0
129.4
122.1
125.6
147.7
98.5
105.2
153.7
79.9
104.1
123.8
120.8
109.4
163.0
93.2
101.4
133.6
74.8
104.0
125.4
114.2
106.7
163.2
92.4
97.5
121.0
71.0
106.4
128.7
100.5
102.4
165.6
89.2
96.8
126.2
71.2
106.3
125.7
96.1
105.8
167.9
82.0
93.3
129.0
64.2
107.1
124.5
93.8
103.6
169.4
80.1
92.5
139.9
63.9
106.0
128.1
92.7
97.7
165.5
78.7
95.8
138.9
66.9
106.0
128.7
99.3
101.6
168.0
83.4
M in e r a l f u e l s ..............................................................................................................................
3
100.0
99.2
99.1
99.7
99.7
99.7
100.1
99.2
97.6
96.6
91.9
A n im a l a n d v e g e t a b l e s o ils , fa ts , a n d w a x e s ......................................................
4
42
125.6
138.2
122.0
129.3
129.8
133.2
164.5
176.4
145.7
159.0
147.9
156.7
142.0
152.9
144.5
164.8
114.5
128.8
101.4
108.7
90.8
95.4
5
51
56
97.0
89.8
98.6
100.0
96.8
101.4
100.2
108.3
99.7
101.0
96.9
98.3
97.4
97.4
97.7
94.7
94.8
97.0
93.8
92.5
96.8
96.5
87.9
97.1
97.1
89.8
96.6
95.4
90.0
96.5
93.5
88.6
100.8
70.1
145.0
139.7
96.6
102.3
101.9
100.0
75.8
145.0
145.5
96.3
93.8
102.1
101.0
83.5
146.7
150.2
95.9
94.2
103.1
101.3
81.2
147.5
154.7
96.1
92.9
104.5
102.0
80.8
148.9
160.0
96.8
90.4
105.1
100.4
79.0
148.5
159.5
96.5
82.5
105.0
99.4
82.5
150.2
155.0
95.5
79.7
105.4
99.2
79.2
149.0
151.6
95.3
79.6
105.2
99.2
75.9
148.3
149.6
95.9
79.8
105.4
99.1
78.5
148.7
148.2
98.2
78.2
104.4
100.3
77.8
151.0
152.2
98.4
80.2
105.3
67
68
69
7
71
72
73
74
75
76
135.9
152.3
149.1
148.3
145.4
103.2
132.2
109.4
127.5
176.4
137.0
154.4
151.1
148.7
145.9
102.5
132.1
109.8
128.8
179.3
138.5
158.4
152.3
150.8
148.6
101.4
133.0
110.2
130.2
183.1
139.4
156.9
152.8
151.2
149.0
101.5
132.3
112.6
131.2
187.7
140.1
160.6
153.7
151.7
149.3
99.8
134.4
113.8
131.0
189.6
141.5
167.5
153.4
151.9
150.2
101.4
134.3
114.6
131.8
191.7
142.3
165.3
155.0
153.4
152.4
100.9
133.3
114.9
133.1
195.5
142.9
167.4
155.7
155.1
152.0
100.0
133.3
116.1
133.9
196.6
143.1
167.1
156.0
156.3
152.4
99.9
134.1
115.3
133.8
199.3
143.3
167.5
156.1
158.4
152.2
99.4
134.5
113.8
135.0
200.7
144.0
169.1
155.4
159.0
152.3
99.9
136.5
115.1
135.5
203.3
77
78
79
100.0
100.0
169.0
100.2
100.8
171.5
100.6
101.9
171.8
100.4
102.1
172.0
100.7
103.9
175.8
99.3
103.4
171.7
99.5
104.7
175.5
100.4
104.7
178.3
100.3
105.0
178.7
100.3
105.3
178.8
102.6
182.2
8
130.0
132.0
132.0
131.3
132.7
130.3
128.0
129.1
127.5
128.5
131.6
Miscellaneous manufactured articles, n.e.s..............................................
84
100.0
98.2
98.5
97.9
95.2
94.1
92.4
93.1
93.1
92.4
95.6
G o ld , n o n - m o n e t a r y ( 6 / 8 3 — 1 0 0 ) ................................................................................
971
100.2
96.2
95.8 I
93.5
81.7
79.5
69.1
75.4
77.4
77.5
81.8
A L L C O M M O D IT IE S ( 9 / 8 3 - 1 0 0 ) ...................................................................................
F o o d ( 3 / 8 3 - 1 0 0 ) ...................................................................................................................
Meat (3 /8 3 -1 0 0 )......................................................................................
Fish (3 /8 3 -1 0 0 ).......................................................................................
Grain and grain preparations (3/80—100) ...............................................
Vegetables and fruit (3/83—100) .............................................................
Feedstuffs for animals (3/83—100)..........................................................
Misc. food products (3/83—100)..............................................................
B e v e r a g e s a n d t o b a c c o ( 6 / 8 3 — 1 0 0 ) .........................................................................
Beverages (9/83—100).............................................................................
Tobacco and tobacco products (6/83—1 00)...........................................
C r u d e m a t e r ia ls ( 6 / 8 3 — 1 0 0 ) ..........................................................................................
Fixed vegetable oils and fats (6/83—1 00)...............................................
C h e m ic a ls ( 3 / 8 3 - 1 0 0 ) ........................................................................................................
Organic chemicals (12/83 —1 00)..............................................................
Fertilizers, manufactured (3/83—100)......................................................
(9/81 —100).................................
Leather and furskins (9/79—100).............................................................
Rubber manufactures ...............................................................................
Paper and paperboard products (6 /7 8 = 10 0 )..........................................
Iron and steel (3/82-100) .......................................................................
Nonferrous metals (9/81 —100) ...............................................................
Metal manufactures, n.e.s. (3/82=100) ...................................................
I n t e r m e d i a t e m a n u f a c t u r e d p r o d u c ts
6
61
62
64
-
“
-
M a c h in e r y a n d t r a n s p o r t e q u ip m e n t , e x c lu d in g m ilita r y
a n d c o m m e r c ia l a ir c r a f t ( 1 2 / 7 8 — 1 0 0 ) ....................................................................
Power generating machinery and equipment (12/78—100) ....................
Machinery specialized for particular industries (9/78—100) ...................
Metalworking machinery (6/78 —100) ......................................................
General industrial machines and parts n.e.s. 9/78—100).......................
Office machines and automatic data processing equipment ...................
Telecommunications, sound recording and reproducing equipment.......
Electrical machinery and equipment.........................................................
Road vehicles and parts (3/80 —100)......................................................
Other transport equipment, excl. military and commercial aviation .......
O t h e r m a n u f a c t u r e d a r t i c l e s ..........................................................................................
Apparel (9 /8 3 -1 0 0 ).................................................................................
Professional, scientific, and controlling instruments and apparatus.......
Photographic apparatus and supplies, optical goods, watches and
clocks (1 2 /7 7 -1 0 0 )...............................................................................
- Data not available.
90
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
-
37.
U.S. import price indexes by Standard International Trade Classification
(June 1977=100, unless otherwise indicated)
C a te g o r y
1974
SITC
(9/82 = 100)..................................................
1984
Mar.
June
1985
Sept.
Dec.
Mar.
June
1986
Sept.
Dec.
Mar.
98.0
98.3
96.7
95.7
93.5
93.0
92.9
94.2
88.5
0
01
02
03
102.5
133.4
100.8
132.7
103.5
133.8
99.8
134.2
102.0
135.4
98.9
134.2
98.1
132.3
98.4
133.9
98.5
130.4
98.3
132.9
96.8
118.2
97.9
129.4
94.9
120.6
99.1
129.7
102.8
131.2
100.5
132.7
113.5
122.7
106.8
139.3
04
05
06
07
136.5
136.1
117.1
61.4
134.8
135.8
120.3
62.4
132.9
135.4
119.0
60.3
132.8
117.2
118.5
58.4
131.8
127.1
118.4
57.0
132.3
129.4
122.6
56.0
136.3
120.2
123.1
54.4
141.9
131.3
111.9
64.6
146.9
119.4
124.6
85.9
1
11
155.3
152.6
156.3
153.6
157.1
153.5
156.5
152.8
156.2
154.2
157.1
154.3
158.0
156.0
162.1
159.1
163.2
161.8
Crude rubber (inc. synthetic & reclaimed) (3 /8 4 = 1 0 0 )..........................
Wood (9/81=100) .................................................
Pulp and waste paper (12/81 = 1 0 0 )..............................................
Crude fertilizers and crude minerals (12/83=100) ..................................
Metalliferous ores and metal scrap (3/84 = 100)............................
Crude vegetable and animal materials, n.e.s.............................................
2
23
24
25
27
28
29
103.2
100.0
114.8
87.6
100.0
100.0
100.0
102.6
93.7
103.2
96.1
96.2
102.8
100.8
100.6
90.7
99.6
96.3
98.0
100.1
101.1
98.9
83.8
104.0
93.2
98.6
95.6
106.4
94.0
77.6
100.7
84.0
100.3
90.4
104.3
93.6
76.4
106.9
80.4
101.7
87.6
104.9
91.5
68.9
101.6
76.8
102.7
89.5
102.5
91.2
73.2
99.4
75.8
102.1
90.1
102.5
94.7
78.8
104.3
74.9
101.5
96.2
103.6
(6 /8 2 =10 0 ).................................................
Petroleum and petroleum products (6/82 = 100) .........................
3
33
88.3
88.2
88.0
88.1
86.9
87.0
85.2
85.2
82.9
83.8
80.9
81.6
79.8
80.3
79.1
80.1
55.3
54.7
(9 /8 3 = 1 0 0 )....................................................
Vegetable oils (9/83 = 100)...............................................
4
42
117.4
118.1
141.8
143.1
124.4
125.3
114.9
115.3
89.9
89.5
76.7
75.9
57.6
56.2
50.6
48.9
41.4
39.3
(9 /8 2 = 1 0 0 )...............................................................
Medicinal and pharmaceutical products (3/84=100) ..........................
Manufactured fertilizers (3 /8 4 = 1 0 0 )..................................
Chemical materials and products, n.e.s. (9 /8 4 =10 0 ).........................
5
54
56
59
101.1
100.0
100.0
-
100.6
98.5
101.7
-
98.8
96.4
98.5
100.0
97.1
94.6
92.9
97.5
95.7
91.6
94.2
96.1
94.9
95.1
82.0
95.6
94.5
95.3
80.8
96.9
94.2
96.7
78.5
97.8
94.6
102.9
79.2
99.9
(12/77=100) ......................
Leather and furskins .............................................................
Rubber manufactures, n.e.s..................................................
Cork and wood manufactures ...............................................
Paper and paperboard products .............................................
Textiles.............................................................
Nonmetallic mineral manufactures, n.e.s..........................
Iron and steel (9/78 = 100) ................................
Nonferrous metals (12/81=100) ............................
Metal manufactures, n.e.s.........................................
6
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
137.6
141.6
141.8
130.1
148.0
130.8
168.4
118.5
95.0
119.7
139.6
145.3
140.8
131.0
150.4
130.1
166.6
123.8
96.3
120.5
137.2
144.0
139.6
126.4
156.1
131.6
156.6
124.7
90.2
119.3
136.8
140.4
140.5
126.1
157.5
132.9
159.4
123.7
87.3
119.3
133.1
135.3
139.5
121.3
157.6
130.4
154.3
121.0
81.9
117.4
132.4
133.3
138.6
121.2
157.2
127.5
151.8
120.1
82.3
117.8
133.6
137.0
137.3
123.4
157.8
126.5
157.6
119.1
83.7
119.5
133.4
141.3
138.1
124.0
156.5
128.1
162.3
118.3
80.4
121.6
134.0
141.6
136.5
130.8
157.1
131.2
164.2
117.3
79.4
124.4
7
72
73
74
104.0
100.4
94.3
93.7
104.1
100.0
93.8
94.4
102.6
98.8
92.1
92.4
102.9
98.0
89.9
91.3
101.6
96.2
86.3
89.2
102.6
97.0
90.5
91.1
103.5
101.4
94.2
94.3
107.2
104.9
98.1
98.0
111.5
112.1
105.0
103.8
75
97.8
96.7
94.1
92.2
89.6
89.4
90.3
93.7
96.9
76
77
78
94.2
94.2
109.0
94.8
91.2
110.4
93.6
87.0
109.8
91.3
86.4
111.3
90.0
82.1
111.5
88.8
83.9
112.1
88.3
81.4
112.7
88.6
83.1
117.8
89.4
84.3
123.4
8
81
82
84
85
100.6
109.5
136.8
130.2
136.8
101.5
112.0
140.8
132.5
140.8
99.7
110.7
138.4
135.4
138.4
100.0
111.6
142.5
138.5
142.5
97.0
113.9
137.4
136.7
137.4
98.0
114.1
136.7
133.9
136.7
99.6
117.8
142.1
134.5
142.1
100.8
115.0
142.7
134.5
142.7
103.3
120.1
147.0
133.4
147.0
87
98.7
97.8
95.6
92.9
89.2
92.3
98.8
102.4
106.4
88
89
89.6
105.2
92.8
104.0
91.2
98.3
91.3
96.3
88.9
91.2
89.5
95.2
91.1
96.4
94.5
97.9
99.3
102.1
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
A L L C O M M O D IT IE S
(9/77 = 100)..............................................................
Meat ........................................................
Dairy products and eggs (6/81=100) ..................................
Fish...........................................................
Bakery goods, pasta products, grain and grain preparations
(9/77=100) ............................................................
Fruits and vegetables ......................................................
Sugar, sugar preparations, and honey (3/82 = 100).................................
Coflee, tea, cocoa.....................................................................
Food
B e v e r a g e s a n d t o b a c c o ................................................................................
Beverages ...............................................................
C r u d e m a t e r i a l s .......................................................................................
F u e ls a n d r e la t e d p r o d u c t s
F a ts a n d o ils
C h e m ic a ls
In t e r m e d i a t e m a n u f a c t u r e d p r o d u c ts
M a c h in e r y a n d t r a n s p o r t e q u ip m e n t ( 6 / 8 1 — 1 0 0 ) ......................................
Machinery specialized for particular industries (9/78=100) .................
Metalworking machinery (3/80=100) ..................................
General industrial machinery and parts, n.e.s. (6/81—100) ...........
Office machines and automatic data processing equipment
(3 /8 0 = 1 0 0 ).......................................................
Telecommunications, sound recording and reproducing apparatus
(3 /8 0 = 1 0 0 )....................................................
Electrical machinery and equipment (12/81 = 1 0 0 )..............................
Road vehicles and parts (6/81 = 100)..................................
(3 /8 0 =10 0 )................................
Plumbing, heating, and lighting fixtures (6/80 = 100) ................
Furniture and parts (6 /8 0 = 1 0 0 )........................................
Clothing (9/77=100) ..................................
Footwear............................................................
Professional, scientific, and controlling instruments and
apparatus (12/79=100).........................................
Photographic apparatus and supplies, optical goods, watches, and
clocks (3 /8 0 = 1 0 0 ).......................................
Mise, manufactured articles, n.e.s. (6/82 = 100)..................
M is e , m a n u f a c t u r e d a r t ic le s
G o ld , n o n - m o n e t a r y ( 6 / 8 2 = 1 0 0 ) ................................
Data not available.
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
971
-
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
38.
August 1986 •
Current Labor Statistics:
Price Data
U.S. export price indexes by end-use category
(September 1983 = 100 unless otherwise indicated)
C a te g o r y
Foods, feeds, and beverages .......................................................
Raw materials, nondurable .........................................................
Raw materials, durable...............................................................
Capital goods (12/8 2=1 0 0 )..........................................................
Automotive vehicles, parts and engines (12/82 = 100) ................
Nondurables................................................................................
39.
Mar.
16.294
30.696
21.327
9.368
30.186
7.483
7.467
3.965
3.501
98.5
102.5
104.4
97.7
103.9
105.3
100.9
99.6
102.1
92.8
102.2
103.6
98.8
103.2
104.5
100.9
100.1
101.8
88.8
100.5
102.8
95.0
104.6
105.3
101.3
99.4
103.0
83.0
99.1
101.4
93.3
105.6
105.7
100.8
99.3
102.3
80.9
97.2
99.5
91.6
106.6
108.0
101.1
99.2
103.0
81.5
97.6
99.6
92.6
106.2
106.7
100.9
99.1
102.7
Mar.
Dec.
Sept.
June
Mar.
Dec.
Sept.
June
1986
1985
1984
Percentage
of 1980
Trade
Value
76.2
96.5
98.7
91.1
106.6
108.1
101.9
100.4
103.3
77.5
95.9
97.9
91.0
106.6
109.2
101.4
99.5
103.3
75.5
96.0
97.5
92.5
107.4
109.5
103.7
101.8
105.5
U.S. import price indexes by end-use category
(December 1982=100)
C a te g o r y
Automotive vehicles, parts and engines.......................................
7.477
31.108
19.205
9.391
9.814
13.164
11.750
14.250
5.507
8.743
107.2
88.5
104.3
102.1
106.7
99.8
104.9
101.9
101.4
102.5
106.0
88.8
103.5
100.7
106.5
100.8
103.6
101.0
101.1
100.9
105.6
87.5
102.5
101.7
103.3
98.0
104.0
100.6
98.8
103.0
101.8
85.7
101.1
100.7
101.6
97.8
105.2
101.1
98.5
104.6
100.4
82.1
95.8
93.9
97.8
96.3
105.9
99.4
97.0
102.5
102.1
84.4
96.3
95.0
97.7
94.8
105.4
99.5
97.0
103.0
Mar.
Dec.
Sept.
June
Mar.
Dec.
Sept.
June
Mar.
1986
1985
1984
Percentage
of 1980
Trade
Value
99.0
80.9
95.4
93.5
97.4
97.6
106.4
101.0
98.9
103.9
106.0
80.5
93.9
91.8
96.2
100.0
111.4
102.4
100.7
104.7
40. U.S. export price indexes by Standard Industrial Classification 1
Mar.
Manufacturing:
Dec.
Mar.
June
Sept.
Dec.
Mar.
112.7
105.6
103.3
99.5
99.5
96.7
98.1
97.0
101.5
101.8
98.6
103.3
101.6
105.1
137.4
108.0
155.7
100.1
103.1
104.3
102.3
102.1
104.0
137.9
109.5
157.2
97.0
103.5
106.2
101.3
100.7
100.0
138.0
110.7
157.8
97.9
104.9
103.6
100.7
100.4
95.8
139.9
111.1
158.9
99.9
105.2
97.1
100.3
101.3
91.2
140.4
111.3
160.5
99.5
106.5
94.7
99.6
102.7
92.7
140.5
112.4
161.9
98.3
107.1
93.2
99.7
102.0
93.6
140.6
111.9
162.8
101.2
108.4
92.1
99.2
99.1
93.6
140.5
111.2
164.3
101.5
109.2
95.7
98.9
93.5
96.4
140.6
112.6
165.2
153.1
153.2
156.0
153.0
154.9
156.6
156.2
156.7
159.7
Scientific instruments; optical goods; clocks
92
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Sept.
109.0
Lumber and wood products, except furniture
1 SIC - based classification.
June
1986
1985
1984
In d u s tr y g r o u p
- Data not available.
115.8
55.4
94.5
91.1
98.0
102.8
115.6
104.5
103.4
106.0
41. U.S. import price indexes by Standard Industrial Classification 1
1984
1985
1986
I n d u s tr y g r o u p
Mar.
Manufacturing:
Food and kindred products (6/77=100) ..........................
Textile mill products (9 /8 2 = 10 0 ).......................................
Apparel and related products (6 /7 7 = 1 0 0 )..............................
Lumber and wood products, except furniture
(6/77=100) ..............................................................
Furniture and fixtures (6/80 = 100)......................................
Paper and allied products (6 /7 7 = 1 0 0 )...........................
Chemicals and allied products (9/82=100) ..............
Rubber and miscellaneous plastic products
(1 2/8 0=1 0 0 ).................................................
Leather and leather products .....................................
Primary metal products (6/81=100) .....................................
Fabricated metal products (12/8 4=1 0 0 )........................
Machinery, except electrical (3 /8 0 = 1 0 0 )...........................
Electrical machinery (9 /8 4 =10 0 )....................................
Transportation equipment (6/81=100) ..............................
Scientific instruments; optical goods; clocks
(12/7 9=1 0 0 )..........................................................
Miscellaneous manufactured commodities
(9 /8 2 = 1 0 0 )...................................................
June
Sept.
Dec.
Mar.
June
Sept.
Dec.
Mar.
122.3
104.4
128.1
126.6
103.8
129.6
124.1
104.3
133.9
122.6
104.7
138.2
118.8
102.8
135.6
115.0
101.0
133.0
114.2
100.4
133.9
115.1
101.8
134.4
117.7
104.7
133.4
129.4
95.7
136.5
101.8
121.1
96.9
141.9
101.8
117.3
96.2
146.0
99.8
120.0
95.6
145.5
98.2
116.3
93.9
141.5
95.3
120.6
96.1
139.8
93.9
117.5
97.7
138.7
93.3
115.8
98.2
137.4
95.8
122.1
101.2
137.6
98.6
98.1
140.3
90.1
98.5
143.7
91.9
97.8
141.6
88.3
-
-
98.0
144.2
86.6
100.0
94.1
98.6
112.9
96.9
139.1
82.2
99.0
91.8
95.1
113.1
96.7
138.9
83.0
99.1
93.4
95.8
114.2
96.6
142.3
83.4
101.0
96.6
94.5
114.8
97.5
144.0
81.9
102.6
100.0
95.8
119.6
100.9
145.8
82.0
104.9
105.5
96.8
123.9
97.8
-
97.1
-
-
110.6
111.6
95.5
100.0
110.7
94.0
95.5
94.4
93.2
90.7
91.7
94.6
98.8
103.9
99.8
99.1
95.8
96.4
95.1
95.1
96.6
98.7
100.0
1 SIC - based classification.
_ Data not available.
42. Indexes of productivity, hourly compensation, and unit costs, quarterly data seasonally adjusted
(1977 = 100)
Annual
average
Quarterly Indexes
Item
1983
1984
1985
1986
1984
ill
IV
105.2
168.2
98.2
159.9
156.5
158.7
103.5
162.1
98.1
156.6
146.8
153.1
103.6
164.1
98.3
158.4
148.6
154.9
104.9
166.1
98.3
158.4
153.4
156.6
104.1
168.0
98.0
161.4
156.3
159.6
103.3
162.3
98.2
157.1
148.9
154.2
103.0
164.0
98.2
159.1
150.7
156.1
106.2
166.1
96.9
161.2
156.4
175.3
135.6
161.4
158.1
104.6
160.8
97.3
159.6
153.8
176.7
114.4
154.9
154.2
118.5
169.1
98.7
142.8
114.5
163.3
98.8
142.6
I
II
III
IV
105.5
167.5
98.2
158.7
156.8
158.0
105.3
169.1
98.2
160.6
157.3
159.4
105.0
170.4
98.1
162.3
158.0
160.8
105.3
172.4
98.5
163.8
157.6
161.6
104.0
165.9
98.1
159.6
152.5
157.1
104.5
167.4
98.1
160.1
156.3
158.8
104.2
168.8
98.0
162.0
157.6
160.5
103.8
170.1
97.9
163.9
158.4
161.9
105.0
162.4
97.3
159.5
154.8
173.7
124.0
156.3
155.3
106.2
164.2
97.1
159.1
154.7
172.3
132.9
158.5
156.0
106.7
165.6
97.1
159.9
155.1
174.0
139.1
161.8
157.4
106.1
166.8
96.9
162.2
157.2
177.0
134.3
162.1
158.9
114.7
164.4
98.5
143.4
116.7
166.7
98.6
142.8
117.8
168.1
98.6
142.7
119.8
169.9
98.7
141.9
I
II
III
IV
105.5
174.3
98.5
165.2
158.2
162.7
105.9
176.1
98.9
166.3
158.6
163.5
104.9
177.6
98.7
169.3
156.2
164.6
105.5
178.2
98.7
168.9
159.1
165.4
104.1
172.1
98.3
165.3
158.8
163.0
104.2
173.7
98.2
166.8
160.2
164.5
104.3
175.0
98.3
167.8
161.4
165.5
103.2
176.4
98.0
170.9
157.7
166.3
104.1
177.3
98.2
170.3
161.9
167.4
105.8
167.9
96.7
163.6
158.7
177.9
135.9
163.2
160.3
105.8
169.4
96.7
164.4
160.0
177.6
138.3
163.8
161.3
105.8
170.8
96.6
165.8
161.5
178.6
139.1
164.8
162.6
106.5
172.0
96.6
165.5
161.5
177.2
150.2
167.7
163.6
105.9
173.3
96.3
167.2
163.7
177.8
143.1
165.7
164.4
105.8
173.9
96.3
168.0
164.3
179.0
146.1
167.5
165.4
119.5
171.8
98.9
143.7
120.0
174.3
99.5
145.3
121.8
176.1
99.5
144.5
122.8
177.3
99.6
144.4
122.4
178.8
99.4
146.0
123.1
179.2
99.3
145.6
I
B u s in e s s :
Output per hour of all persons.............................
Compensation per hour........................................
Real compensation per h o u r................................
Unit labor c o s ts ....................................................
Unit nonlabor payments .......................................
Implicit price deflator ............................................
N o n f a r m b u s in e s s :
Output per hour of all persons.............................
Compensation per hour........................................
Real compensation per h o u r................................
Unit labor costs ....................................................
Unit nonlabor payments .......................................
Implicit price deflator ............................................
N o n f in a n c ia l c o r p o r a t io n s :
Output per hour of all employees........................
Compensation per hour........................................
Real compensation per h o u r................................
Total unit costs.....................................................
Unit labor costs .................................................
Unit nonlabor co sts............................................
Unit profits.............................................................
Unit nonlabor payments .......................................
Implicit price deflator ............................................
M a n u fa c tu r in g :
Output per hour of all persons.............................
Compensation per hour........................................
Real compensation per h o u r................................
Unit labor c o sts ....................................................
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
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MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
43.
August 1986 •
Current Labor Statistics:
Productivity Data
Annual indexes of multifactor productivity and related measures, selected years
(1977 = 100)
Item
1960
1970
1973
1974
1976
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
P r iv a t e b u s in e s s
Productivity:
Output per hour of all persons..........................
Output per unit of capital services.....................
Multifactor productivity.......................................
O utput...................................................................
Inputs:
Hours of all persons...........................................
Capital services .................................................
Combined units of labor and capital inp u t........
Capital per hour of all persons.............................
64.8
98.4
75.4
53.3
86.1
98.5
90.2
78.3
94.8
103.0
97.5
91.8
92.5
96.5
93.8
89.9
97.6
96.1
97.1
93.7
100.5
101.8
101.0
105.5
99.3
100.3
99.7
107.9
98.7
95.6
97.6
106.4
100.6
94.1
98.3
109.2
100.8
89.5
96.8
106.3
103.7
92.3
99.6
111.1
107.1
97.4
103.7
121.0
82.2
54.1
70.7
65.9
90.8
79.4
86.7
87.4
96.8
89.1
94.1
92.0
97.2
93.1
95.8
95.9
95.9
97.5
96.5
101.6
105.0
103.6
104.5
98.7
108.6
107.5
108.2
98.9
107.8
111.4
109.0
103.3
108.5
116.0
111.0
106.9
105.4
118.8
109.9
112.7
107.2
120.4
111.6
112.3
113.0
124.3
116.8
109.9
68.0
98.4
77.6
52.3
86.8
98.6
90.7
77.8
95.3
103.2
97.9
91.7
92.9
96.5
94.1
89.7
97.8
96.1
97.2
93.6
100.6
101.9
101.0
105.7
99.0
100.1
99.4
108.0
98.2
95.2
97.2
106.4
99.6
93.2
97.4
108.7
99.9
88.7
95.9
105.9
103.5
91.9
99.4
111.3
106.3
96.6
102.9
121.0
77.0
53.2
67.4
69.1
89.7
78.9
85.9
88.0
96.2
88.8
93.6
92.4
96.5
93.0
95.3
96.3
95.7
97.4
96.3
101.8
105.1
103.7
104.6
98.7
109.1
107.9
108.7
98.9
108.4
111.7
109.5
103.1
109.1
116.6
111.6
106.8
106.0
119.4
110.4
112.6
107.6
121.1
112.0
112.6
113.8
125.2
117.5
110.1
60.0
87.9
67.0
50.7
79.2
91.8
82.3
77.0
93.0
108.2
96.8
95.9
90.8
99.6
93.1
91.9
97.6
96.1
97.1
93.6
100.9
101.5
101.1
105.3
101.6
99.5
101.0
108.2
101.7
90.7
98.8
103.5
104.9
89.9
100.8
106.1
107.1
82.9
100.3
99.3
111.6
87.6
104.9
104.4
115.6
96.0
110.4
115.3
84.4
57.6
75.6
68.3
97.3
83.9
93.5
86.2
103.1
88.6
99.0
85.9
101.2
92.2
98.7
91.1
95.9
97.4
96.3
101.6
104.4
103.8
104.2
99.4
106.5
108.8
107.1
102.1
101.7
114.1
104.8
112.2
101.1
118.0
105.2
116.7
92.7
119.8
99.0
129.2
93.5
119.2
99.5
127.5
99.8
120.2
104.5
120.4
P r iv a t e n o n f a r m b u s in e s s
Productivity:
Output per hour of all persons..........................
Output per unit of capital services.....................
Multifactor productivity.......................................
O utput...................................................................
Inputs:
Hours of all persons...........................................
Capital services .................................................
Combined units of labor and capital inp u t........
Capital per hour of all persons.............................
M a n u fa c tu r in g
Productivity:
Output per hour of all persons..........................
Output per unit of capital services....................
Multifactor productivity.......................................
O utput...................................................................
Inputs:
Hours of all persons...........................................
Capital services .................................................
Combined units of labor and capital inputs.......
Capital per hour of all persons.............................
44.
Annual indexes of productivity, hourly compensation, unit costs, and prices, selected years
(1977=100)
Item
1960
1970
1973
1974
1976
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
B u s in e s s :
Output per hour of all persons.............................
Compensation per hour........................................
Real compensation per h o u r................................
Unit labor co s ts ....................................................
Unit nonlabor payments .......................................
Implicit price deflator ............................................
67.5
33.6
68.8
49.8
46.3
48.5
88.3
57.7
90.1
65.4
59.4
63.2
95.9
70.9
96.7
73.9
72.5
73.4
93.9
77.6
95.4
82.7
76.4
80.5
98.3
92.8
98.7
94.3
93.4
94.0
100.8
108.5
100.8
107.7
106.7
107.3
99.6
119.1
99.4
119.6
112.5
117.0
99.2
131.5
96.7
132.6
118.8
127.6
100.7
143.7
95.7
142.7
134.7
139.8
100.3
154.9
97.3
154.5
136.8
148.1
103.2
161.9
98.5
157.0
145.4
152.8
105.2
168.2
98.2
159.9
156.5
158.7
105.3
175.0
98.6
166.2
157.7
163.1
70.9
35.3
72.2
49.8
46.2
48.5
89.1
58.1
90.7
65.2
60.0
63.4
96.4
71.2
97.1
73.9
69.4
72.3
94.3
78.0
95.9
82.7
74.0
79.7
98.5
92.8
98.8
94.2
93.1
93.8
100.8
108.6
100.9
107.7
105.6
107.0
99.2
118.9
99.2
119.8
110.5
116.5
98.8
131.3
96.6
132.9
118.5
127.8
99.8
143.6
95.7
144.0
133.5
140.3
99.2
154.8
97.2
156.0
136.6
149.2
102.6
162.1
98.6
158.0
147.0
154.1
104.1
168.0
98.0
161.4
156.3
159.6
103.9
174.2
98.1
167.7
159.5
164.8
73.4
36.9
75.5
50.2
51.5
50.7
91.1
59.2
92.4
65.0
60.1
63.3
97.5
71.6
97.6
73.4
68.9
71.9
94.6
78.2
96.1
82.6
73.1
79.4
98.4
92.9
98.9
94.3
93.8
94.2
100.6
108.4
100.7
107.8
104.4
106.6
99.8
118.7
99.1
119.0
108.4
115.4
99.1
131.1
96.4
132.3
118.6
127.6
99.6
143.3
95.5
143.8
137.8
141.7
100.4
154.3
96.9
153.8
142.1
149.8
104.0
160.6
97.7
154.5
152.2
153.7
106.2
166.1
96.9
156.4
161.4
158.1
105.9
171.3
96.5
161.7
165.5
163.0
62.2
36.5
74.7
58.7
60.2
59.1
80.8
57.3
89.4
70.9
64.3
69.0
93.4
68.8
93.8
73.7
70.7
72.8
90.6
76.2
93.6
84.1
67.7
79.3
97.1
92.1
98.1
94.9
93.5
94.5
101.5
108.2
100.5
106.6
101.9
105.2
101.4
118.6
99.1
117.0
98.9
111.7
101.4
132.4
97.4
130.6
97.8
103.6
145.2
96.7
140.1
112.9
163.2
99.3
144.5
132.4
118.5
169.1
98.7
142.8
1 2 1 .0
131.8
105.9
157.5
98.9
148.7
114.0
138.6
1 4 1 .0
142.1
N o n f a r m b u s in e s s :
Output per hour of all persons.............................
Compensation per hour........................................
Real compensation per h o u r................................
Unit labor c o s ts ....................................................
Unit nonlabor payments.......................................
Implicit price deflator ............................................
N o n f in a n c ia l c o r p o r a t io n s :
Output per hour of all employees........................
Compensation per hour........................................
Real compensation per h o u r................................
Unit labor costs ....................................................
Unit nonlabor payments .......................................
Implicit price deflator ............................................
M a n u fa c tu r in g :
Output per hour of all persons.............................
Compensation per hour........................................
Real compensation per h o u r................................
Unit labor c o sts ....................................................
Unit nonlabor payments .......................................
Implicit price deflator ............................................
94
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
1 1 1 .8
1 4 0 .5
1 2 1 .8
176.6
99.5
145.0
138.9
143.3
45.
Unemployment rates in nine countries, quarterly data seasonally adjusted
1984
Annual average
1985
1986
Country
1984
1985
IV
III
I
II
III
IV
I
T o t a l la b o r f o r c e b a s is
United States....................................
Canada ..............................................
Australia ............................................
Japan .................................................
7.4
11.2
8.9
2.7
7.1
10.4
8.2
2.6
7.3
11.2
8.7
2.8
7.1
11.1
8.6
2.7
7.2
11.0
8.5
2.6
7.2
10.5
8.4
2.5
7.1
10.2
8.1
2.6
6.9
10.1
7.8
2.9
7.0
9.7
7.9
2.6
France ...............................................
Germany............................................
Great Britain .....................................
Italy 1, 2 ..............................................
Sweden .............................................
9.7
7.7
12.8
5.8
3.1
10.1
7.7
13.0
5.9
2.8
9.9
7.8
13.0
5.8
3.0
10.0
7.7
12.8
5.7
3.0
10.2
7.8
12.9
5.8
3.0
10.1
7.8
13.0
5.7
2.9
10.2
7.7
13.2
5.9
2.7
9.9
7.7
12.8
6.2
2.7
10.0
7.7
13.0
6.2
2.8
United States....................................
Canada ..............................................
Australia ............................................
Japan .................................................
7.5
11.3
9.0
2.8
7.2
10.5
8.3
2.6
7.4
11.3
8.8
2.8
7.2
11.1
8.6
2.7
7.3
11.1
8.6
2.6
7.3
10.6
8.5
2.6
7.2
10.2
8.2
2.7
7.0
10.1
7.9
2.9
7.1
9.7
8.0
2.7
France ...............................................
Germany............................................
Great Britain .....................................
Italy ...................................................
Sweden .............................................
9.9
7.8
12.9
5.9
3.1
10.3
7.9
13.2
6.0
2.8
10.1
7.9
13.2
5.9
3.1
10.3
7.8
13.0
5.8
3.0
10.5
7.9
13.1
5.9
3.0
10.4
8.0
13.2
5.8
2.9
10.4
7.9
13.4
6.0
2.8
10.1
7.8
13.0
6.3
2.7
10.2
7.8
13.1
6.3
2.8
C iv ilia n la b o r f o r c e b a s is
1 Quarterly rates are for the first month of the quarter.
2 Major changes in the Italian labor force survey,
introduced in 1977, resulted in a large increase in persons
enumerated as unemployed. However, many persons
reported that they had not actively sought work in the past
30 days, and they have been provisionally excluded for
comparability with U.S. concepts. Inclusion of such persons
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
would more than double the Italian unemployment rate
shown.
NOTE: Quarterly and monthly figures for France,
Germany, and Great Britain are calculated by applying
annual adjustment factors to current published data and
therefore should be viewed as less precise indicators of
unemployment under U.S. concepts than the annual figures.
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
46.
August 1986 •
Current Labor Statistics:
International Comparisons Data
Annual data: Employment status of the civilian working-age population, ten countries
(Numbers in thousands)
Employment status and country
1976
1977
96,158
10,203
6,244
53,100
22,000
25,900
25,290
20,300
4,890
4,149
1978
1979
1980
99,009
10,500
6,358
53,820
22,300
25,870
25,430
20,530
4,950
4,168
102,251
10,895
6,443
54,610
22,470
26,000
25,620
20,630
5,010
4,203
104,962
11,231
6,519
55,210
22,670
26,240
25,710
20,910
5,100
4,262
106,940
11,573
6,693
55.740
22,790
26,500
25,870
21,210
5,290
4,312
61.6
61.1
62.7
62.4
57.3
53.8
63.2
47.8
49.1
66.0
62.3
61.6
62.7
62.5
57.6
53.4
63.2
48.0
49.0
65.9
63.2
62.7
62.0
62.8
57.5
53.3
63.3
47.7
48.8
66.1
63.7
63.4
61.7
62.7
57.5
53.3
63.2
47.8
49.0
66.6
88,752
9,477
5,946
52,020
21,010
25,010
23,810
19,600
4,630
4,083
92,017
9,651
6,000
52,720
21,180
24,970
23,840
19,800
4,700
4,093
96,048
9,987
6,038
53,370
21,260
25,130
24,040
19,870
4,750
4,109
56.8
56.7
59.7
61.1
54.8
52.0
59.5
46.1
46.5
64.9
57.9
56.6
59.2
61.2
54.7
51.6
59.3
46.3
46.5
64.8
7,406
726
298
1,080
990
890
1,480
700
260
66
7.7
7.1
4.8
2.0
4.5
3.4
5.9
3.4
5.3
1.6
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
108,670
11,904
6,810
56,320
22,930
26,610
25,870
21,410
5,500
4,326
110,204
11,958
6,910
56,980
23,150
26,640
25,880
21,450
5,560
4,350
111,550
12,183
6,997
58,110
23,110
26,640
26,010
21,610
5,720
4,369
113,544
12,399
7,133
58,480
23,250
26,700
26,530
21,680
5,740
4,385
115,461
12,639
7,272
58,820
23,320
27,010
26,950
21,800
5,690
4,418
63.8
64.1
62.2
62.6
57.2
53.2
63.2
48.0
50.0
67.0
63.9
64.8
62.0
62.6
57.1
52.9
62.2
48.0
51.3
66.8
64.0
64.1
61.8
62.7
57.1
52.5
61.9
47.4
51.2
66.8
64.0
64.4
61.5
63.1
56.5
52.3
61.9
47.2
52.1
66.7
64.4
64.8
61.5
62.7
56.6
52.7
62.7
47.3
52.0
66.8
64.8
65.2
61.8
62.3
56.8
53.4
63.7
47.2
51.2
67.2
98,824
10,395
6,111
54,040
21,300
25,460
24,360
20,100
4,830
4,174
99,303
10,708
6,284
54,600
21,320
25,730
24,100
20,380
4,960
4,226
100,397
11,006
6,416
55,060
21,200
25,520
23,190
20,480
4,990
4,218
99,526
10,644
6,415
55,620
21,230
25,060
22,820
20,430
4,930
4,213
100,834
10,734
6,300
56,550
21,150
24,650
22,680
20,470
4,890
4,218
105,005
11,000
6,490
56,870
20,940
24,610
23,100
20,390
4,880
4,249
107,150
11,311
6,670
57,260
20,910
24,880
23,410
20,490
4,890
4,293
59.3
57.5
58.1
61.3
54.4
51.5
59.4
45.9
46.3
64.6
59.9
58.7
57.9
61.4
54.0
51.7
59.8
45.9
46.4
65.3
59.2
59.3
58.4
61.3
53.5
51.6
58.9
46.1
46.9
65.6
59.0
59.9
58.4
61.2
52.8
50.7
55.8
45.9
46.5
65.1
57.8
57.0
57.3
61.2
52.3
49.4
54.6
45.2
45.4
64.7
57.9
56.7
55.4
61.4
51.7
48.4
54.0
44.7
44.5
64.4
59.5
57.4
56.0
61.0
51.0
48.6
54.6
44.5
44.2
64.7
60.1
58.4
56.6
60.6
50.9
49.2
55.3
44.4
44.0
65.3
6,991
849
358
1,100
1,120
900
1,590
740
250
75
6,202
908
405
1,240
1,210
870
1,580
760
260
94
6,137
836
408
1,170
1,370
780
1,350
810
270
88
7,637
865
409
1,140
1,470
770
1,770
830
330
86
8,273
898
394
1,260
1,730
1,090
2,680
920
510
108
10,678
1,314
495
1,360
1,920
1,580
3,060
1,020
630
137
10,717
1,448
697
1,560
1,960
1,990
3,330
1,140
830
151
8,539
1,399
642
1,610
2,310
2,090
3,430
1,280
860
136
8,312
1,328
602
1,560
2,410
2,130
3,540
1,310
800
125
7.1
8.1
5.6
2.0
5.0
3.5
6.3
3.6
5.0
1.8
6.1
8.3
6.3
2.3
5.4
3.4
6.2
3.7
5.2
2.2
5.8
7.4
6.3
2.1
6.0
3.0
5.3
3.9
5.3
2.1
7.1
7.5
6.1
2.0
6.4
2.9
6.8
3.9
6.2
2.0
7.6
7.5
5.8
2.2
7.5
4.1
10.4
4.3
9.3
2.5
9.7
11.0
7.2
2.4
8.3
5.9
11.8
4.8
11.3
3.1
9.6
11.9
10.0
2.7
8.5
7.5
12.8
5.3
14.5
3.5
7.5
11.3
9.0
2.8
9.9
7.8
12.9
5.9
15.0
3.1
7.2
10.5
8.3
2.6
10.3
7.9
13.2
6.0
14.1
2.8
L a b o r fo r c e
United S tates........................................................
Canada .................................................................
Australia................................................................
Japan ....................................................................
France ...................................................................
Germany................................................................
Great Britain..........................................................
Italy........................................................................
Netherlands...........................................................
Sweden.................................................................
P a r t ic ip a t io n r a te
United S tates........................................................
Canada ..................................................................
Australia.................................................................
Japan ....................................................................
France...................................................................
Germany................................................................
Great Britain..........................................................
Italy........................................................................
Netherlands...........................................................
Sweden..................................................................
E m p lo y e d
United States ........................................................
Canada .................................................................
Australia................................................................
Japan ....................................................................
France...................................................................
Germany................................................................
Great Britain..........................................................
Italy........................................................................
Netherlands...........................................................
Sweden.................................................................
E m p lo y m e n t-p o p u la tio n r a tio
United S tates........................................................
Canada .................................................................
Australia................................................................
Japan ....................................................................
France ...................................................................
Germany................................................................
Great Britain..........................................................
Italy........................................................................
Netherlands...........................................................
Sweden.................................................................
U n e m p lo y e d
United States........................................................
Canada ..................................................................
Australia................................................................
Japan ....................................................................
France...................................................................
Germany...............................................................
Great Britain..........................................................
Italy........................................................................
Netherlands...........................................................
Sweden.................................................................
U n e m p lo y m e n t r a te
United States........................................................
Canada ..................................................................
Australia.................................................................
Japan ....................................................................
France...................................................................
Germany................................................................
Great Britain..........................................................
Italy........................................................................
Netherlands...........................................................
Sweden.................................................................
96
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
47.
Annual indexes of productivity and related measures, twelve countries
(1977 = 100)
Item and country
1960
1970
1973
1974
1976
1977
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
62.2
50.3
23.2
32.8
37.2
36.4
40.3
36.5
32.4
54.6
42.3
53.8
80.8
76.8
64.8
60.0
65.5
69.6
71.2
72.7
64.3
81.7
80.7
77.6
93.4
91.3
83.1
78.7
83.2
82.2
84.0
90.9
81.5
94.6
94.8
92.9
90.6
93.4
86.5
83.2
86.0
85.2
87.4
95.3
88.1
97.7
98.8
95.2
97.1
96.2
94.3
95.3
98.2
95.0
96.5
98.9
95.8
99.7
101.7
99.1
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
101.4
104.2
114.8
111.8
106.5
110.3
108.2
110.5
112.3
107.1
110.9
102.2
101.4
101.9
122.7
119.3
112.3
112.0
108.6
116.9
113.9
109.3
112.7
101.2
103.6
104.0
127.2
127.2
114.2
116.4
111.0
121.0
116.9
109.7
113.2
107.9
105.9
101.0
135.0
132.8
114.6
123.5
112.6
123.4
119.4
112.6
116.5
112.7
112.9
107.6
142.3
141.0
117.3
129.3
119.0
126.6
126.1
119.2
125.5
121.2
118.5
111.5
152.2
145.5
118.3
135.0
124.7
135.0
139.3
122.3
132.6
126.2
121.8
115.1
159.9
52.5
41.5
19.2
41.7
49.2
35.4
50.0
37.4
44.8
55.1
52.6
71.0
78.6
75.1
69.9
78.1
82.0
73.3
86.6
78.0
84.4
87.0
92.5
94.7
96.3
94.6
91.9
95.8
95.9
88.6
96.1
90.5
95.8
99.5
100.3
104.7
91.7
98.0
91.7
99.6
97.4
91.8
95.4
96.3
100.0
104.0
105.7
103.5
93.1
98.1
94.8
99.5
99.6
96.1
98.0
97.9
99.0
101.4
106.1
98.2
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
108.1
110.9
113.9
104.2
105.4
106.1
106.6
108.6
106.1
100.3
103.6
100.5
103.2
107.7
124.1
107.2
110.1
106.6
106.6
115.4
106.6
101.3
104.0
91.7
104.8
108.8
129.8
105.9
106.6
105.9
104.9
114.3
106.7
100.1
100.6
86.2
98.4
96.4
137.3
109.1
108.3
106.0
102.4
111.6
105.0
99.8
100.1
86.4
105.6
101.7
148.2
110.7
112.2
107.4
103.5
109.2
105.3
98.8
105.2
88.9
117.9
110.1
165.2
112.8
118.6
108.4
107.4
113.2
110.8
101.3
112.4
92.4
84.4
82.6
82.7
127.0
132.4
97.2
123.8
102.3
138.4
101.0
124.4
131.9
97.3
97.7
107.9
130.1
125.1
105.3
121.7
107.4
131.2
106.4
114.6
122.1
103.1
103.6
110.7
121.8
115.2
107.8
114.4
99.6
117.6
105.1
105.7
112.7
101.2
105.0
106.1
119.7
113.2
107.8
109.2
101.0
113.5
106.5
107.0
108.7
95.9
102.0
100.6
104.4
101.4
101.2
101.6
99.0
103.3
101.7
104.3
99.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
106.5
106.4
99.3
93.2
99.0
96.2
98.5
98.2
94.4
93.6
93.4
98.3
101.7
105.7
101.2
89.9
98.1
95.2
98.1
98.7
93.6
92.6
92.3
90.7
101.1
104.6
102.0
83.3
93.4
91.0
94.6
94.5
91.2
91.3
88.9
79.9
92.9
95.4
101.7
82.1
94.5
85.9
91.0
90.4
88.0
88.6
85.9
76.7
93.5
94.6
104.2
78.5
95.7
83.0
87.0
86.2
83.5
82.9
83.9
73.3
99.5
98.7
108.5
77.5
100.2
80.3
86.2
83.9
79.5
82.8
84.8
73.2
United S tates......................................................
Canada .........................................................
Japan ...............................................................
Belgium......................................................
Denmark ................................................................
France ..............................................
Germany.................................................
Italy.....................................................
Netherlands.......................................
Norway.................................................
Sweden...............................................
United Kingdom..................................
36.5
27.1
8.9
13.8
12.6
15.1
18.8
8.3
12.5
15.8
14.7
14.8
57.3
46.5
33.9
34.9
36.3
36.6
48.0
26.1
39.0
37.9
38.5
30.8
68.8
59.2
55.1
53.5
56.1
52.3
67.5
43.7
60.5
54.5
54.2
44.8
76.2
68.5
72.3
65.2
67.9
62.0
76.9
54.5
71.9
63.6
63.8
56.9
92.1
89.9
90.7
89.5
90.4
88.9
91.3
84.2
91.9
88.8
91.5
88.4
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
118.6
118.3
113.4
117.6
123.1
129.3
116.1
134.7
117.0
116.0
120.1
137.7
132.4
130.6
120.7
130.4
135.9
147.5
125.6
160.2
123.6
128.0
133.6
165.8
145.2
151.5
129.8
144.6
149.6
170.3
134.5
197.1
129.1
142.8
148.1
188.9
157.5
167.1
136.6
152.0
162.9
200.8
141.0
237.3
137.5
156.0
158.9
206.4
163.2
179.3
140.7
163.7
174.3
226.2
148.4
276.4
144.7
173.5
173.3
222.4
169.1
182.1
144.8
176.6
183.9
246.5
155.3
303.0
152.8
188.3
190.7
237.2
National currency basis:
United S tates..........................................
Canada ........................................................
Japan .....................................................
Belgium.............................................
Denmark..................................................
France .................................................
Germany...................................................
Italy...................................................
Netherlands................................................
Norway...............................................
Sweden......................................
United Kingdom...............................................
58.7
53.9
38.4
42.0
33.8
41.6
46.6
22.8
38.5
29.0
34.8
27.6
70.9
60.6
52.3
58.1
55.4
52.6
67.4
36.0
60.7
46.4
47.7
39.7
73.7
64.8
66.4
68.0
67.4
63.6
80.3
48.1
74.3
57.6
57.2
48.2
84.1
73.3
83.6
78.3
79.0
72.8
88.0
57.2
81.6
65.2
64.6
59.7
94.9
93.5
96.2
93.9
92.1
93.6
94.6
85.1
96.0
89.1
90.0
89.2
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
117.0
113.5
98.8
105.2
115.7
117.3
107.3
121.9
104.1
108.2
108.3
134.7
130.6
128.1
98.4
109.3
121.0
131.7
115.7
137.0
108.5
117.0
118.6
163.8
140.1
145.7
102.0
113.6
131.1
146.3
121.2
162.9
110.4
130.2
130.9
175.1
148.7
165.4
101.2
114.4
142.2
162.6
125.2
192.4
115.2
138.6
136.3
183.1
144.5
166.7
98.9
116.1
148.6
175.0
124.7
218.3
114.7
145.5
138.1
183.5
142.8
163.2
95.1
121.4
155.5
182.5
124.6
224.5
109.7
154.0
143.8
187.9
U.S. dollar basis:
United States ...............................................
Canada .......................................................
Japan .....................................................
Belgium...........................................
Denmark.....................................................
France........................................................
Germany.................................................
Italy....................................................
Netherlands.........................................
Norway....................
Sweden.....................................
United Kingdom................................
58.7
59.0
28.5
30.2
29.5
41.7
25.9
32.5
25.1
21.7
30.1
44.4
70.9
61.7
39.1
42.0
44.4
46.8
42.9
50.6
41.2
34.5
41.1
54.4
73.7
68.8
65.6
62.8
67.2
70.4
70.4
73.1
65.6
53.4
58.7
67.7
84.1
79.7
76.8
72.1
77.9
74.5
79.1
77.6
74.6
62.8
65.1
80.1
94.9
100.7
86.9
87.2
91.5
96.3
87.3
90.5
89.1
86.9
92.3
92.3
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
117.0
103.0
121.3
128.5
132.0
135.5
135.9
129.5
127.4
113.8
112.9
163.9
130.6
116.4
116.8
134.1
129.0
153.4
147.9
141.4
134.2
126.2
125.3
218.3
140.1
129.1
123.8
109.9
110.3
132.2
124.9
126.3
108.9
120.6
115.4
203.1
148.7
142.3
108.8
89.5
102.3
121.5
119.7
125.4
105.8
114.2
96.9
183.5
144.5
143.7
111.5
81.3
97.5
112.9
113.4
126.8
98.6
106.1
80.4
159.4
142.8
133.9
107.2
75.3
90.1
102.7
101.6
112.8
83.9
100.4
77.7
143.9
O u tp u t p e r h o u r
United S tates......................................................
Canada ....................................................................
Japan ..................................................................................................
Belgium...............................................................................................
Denmark.............................................................................................
France.................................................................................................
Germany.............................................................................................
Italy............................................................
Netherlands.........................................................................................
Norway.................................................
Sweden.................................................................
United Kingdom....................................................................
118.4
140.2
131.9
139.1
125.0
135.2
129.7
O u tp u t
United S tates......................................................................................
Canada ...............................................................................................
Japan ..................................................................................................
Belgium...............................................................................................
Denmark.............................................................................................
France.................................................................................................
Germany.............................................................................................
Italy....................................................................
Netherlands.........................................................................................
Norway................................................................................................
Sweden..................................................
United Kingdom............................................................
121.0
115.2
175.8
122.3
109.0
113.0
115.3
103.7
114.6
95.0
T o ta l h o u rs
United S tates.........................................................
Canada ...............................................................................................
Japan ..................................................................................................
Belgium...............................................................................................
Denmark.............................................................................................
France .................................................................................................
Germany.............................................................................................
Italy..........................................................
Netherlands.........................................................................................
Norway................................................................................................
Sweden...............................................................................................
United Kingdom..................................................
99.3
100.1
110.0
103.3
77.8
85.7
82.9
83.0
84.8
73.3
C o m p e n s a t io n p e r h o u r
176.6
191.4
148.3
195.5
262.7
164.7
334.0
205.2
205.8
257.0
U n it la b o r c o s t s :
145.0
166.3
92.7
165.1
187.4
124.9
240.1
164.2
152.2
198.1
U n it la b o r c o s t s :
145.0
129.4
104.2
93.5
102.6
98.6
111.1
101.7
79.1
147.3
- Data not available.
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
97
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
48.
August 1986 •
Current Labor Statistics:
Injury and Illness Data
Occupational injury and illness incidence rates by industry, United States
Incidence rates per 100 full-time workers2
Industry and type of case1
1977
1976
1979
1978
1982
1981
1980
1984
1983
P R IV A T E S E C T O R 3
Total cases................................................................................................
Lost workday cases ..................................................................................
Lost workdays...........................................................................................
9.2
3.5
60.5
9.3
3.8
61.6
9.4
4.1
63.5
9.5
4.3
67.7
8.7
4.0
65.2
8.3
3.8
61.7
7.7
3.5
58.7
7.6
3.4
58.5
8.0
3.7
63.4
11.0
4.7
83.3
11.5
5.1
81.1
11.6
5.4
80.7
11.7
5.7
83.7
11.9
5.8
82.7
12.3
5.9
82.8
11.8
5.9
86.0
11.9
6.1
90.8
12.0
6.1
90.7
11.0
5.8
114.4
10.9
6.0
128.8
11.5
6.4
143.2
11.4
6.8
150.5
11.2
6.5
163.6
11.6
6.2
146.4
10.5
5.4
137.3
8.4
4.5
125.1
9.7
5.3
160.2
15.3
5.5
105.0
15.5
5.9
111.5
16.0
6.4
109.4
16.2
6.8
120.4
15.7
6.5
117.0
15.1
6.3
113.1
14.6
6.0
115.7
14.8
6.3
118.2
15.5
6.9
128.1
14.5
5.2
100.0
15.0
5.7
100.2
15.9
6.3
105.3
16.3
6.8
111.2
15.5
6.5
113.0
15.1
6.1
107.1
14.1
5.9
112.0
14.4
6.2
113.0
15.4
6.9
121.3
16.3
5.5
109.2
16.0
5.7
116.7
16.6
6.2
110.9
16.6
6.7
123.1
16.3
6.3
117.6
14.9
6.0
106.0
15.1
5.8
113.1
15.4
6.2
122.4
14.9
6.4
131.7
15.3
5.6
105.8
15.6
6.1
115.5
15.8
6.6
111.0
16.0
6.9
124.3
15.5
6.7
118.9
15.2
6.6
119.3
14.7
6.2
118.6
14.8
6.4
119.0
15.8
7.1
130.1
13.2
4.8
79.5
13.1
5.1
82.3
13.2
5.6
84.9
13.3
5.9
90.2
12.2
5.4
86.7
11.5
5.1
82.0
10.2
4.4
75.0
10.0
4.3
73.5
10.6
4.7
77.9
22.1
9.7
167.3
22.3
10.4
178.0
22.6
11.1
178.8
20.7
10.8
175.9
18.6
9.5
171.8
17.6
9.0
158.4
16.9
8.3
153.3
18.3
9.2
163.5
19.6
9.9
172.0
16.9
6.0
94.5
17.2
6.0
92.0
17.5
6.9
95.9
17.6
7.1
99.6
16.0
6.6
97.6
15.1
6.2
91.9
13.9
5.5
85.6
14.1
5.7
83.0
15.3
6.4
101.5
16.1
6.4
114.1
16.9
6.9
120.4
16.8
7.8
126.3
16.8
8.0
133.7
15.0
7.1
128.1
14.1
6.9
122.2
13.0
6.1
112.2
13.1
6.0
112.0
13.6
6.6
120.8
16.6
6.3
114.8
16.2
6.8
119.4
17.0
7.5
123.6
17.3
8.1
134.7
15.2
7.1
128.3
14.4
6.7
121.3
12.4
5.4
101.6
12.4
5.4
103.4
13.3
6.1
115.3
18.9
6.8
109.8
19.1
7.2
109.0
19.3
8.0
112.4
19.9
8.7
124.2
18.5
8.C
118.4
17.5
7.5
109.9
15.3
6.4
102.5
15.1
6.1
96.5
16.1
6.7
104.9
14.2
70.6
14.(
4.7
69.9
14.‘
5.4
75.1
14.7
5.9
83.E
13.7
5.5
81.2
12.9
5.1
74.9
10.7
4.2
66.C
9.£
3.6
58/
10.7
4.1
65.8
8.6
2.E
44.S
8.6
3.C
46.7
8.7
3.C
50.2
s.e
3.4
51.9
8.I
3.2
51.£
3.1
48.4
6.5
2.7
42.2
6.3
2.6
41.4
6.8
2.8
45.0
12.4
4.“
73.E
11.1
5.C
79.1
11 .£
5.1
78.C
11.1
5.£
85.9
62J
9.6
4.6
78.1
9.2
4.C
72.2
8.‘
3.6
64.6
9.3
4.2
68.8
7.2
2>
36.'
7.C
2.4
37.4
6.9
6.1 i
2.'
41, I
6.5
5.(
2.2
37.I
5.2
2.1
37.Ci
7.2
2.E
40.1
35.I
5.4
2.2
37.5
11.
4.
59.
11.:
4.C
58.'
11,i
4..
66>
11.'
4.'
67.'
10.
4.
67.
9.9 '
4.
69.S
9.9 i
4.(
66.:
10.5
4.3
70.2
A g r ic u lt u r e , f o r e s t r y , a n d fis h in g 3
Total cases................................................................................................
Lost workday cases ..................................................................................
Lost workdays............................................................................................
M in in g
Total cases................................................................................................
Lost workday ca ses..................................................................................
Lost workdays............................................................................................
C o n s tr u c tio n
Total cases................................................................................................
Lost workday cases...........................................................................*......
Lost workdays...........................................................................................
General building contractors:
Total cases................................................................................................
Lost workday ca ses..................................................................................
Lost workdays...........................................................................................
Heavy construction contractors:
Total cases................................................................................................
Lost workday ca ses..................................................................................
Lost workdays............................................................................................
Special trade contractors:
Total cases................................................................................................
Lost workday cases..................................................................................
Lost workdays............................................................................................
M a n u fa c tu r in g
Total cases................................................................................................
Lost workday ca ses..................................................................................
Lost workdays............................................................................................
D u r a b le g o o d s
Lumber and wood products:
Total cases................................................................................................
Lost workday ca ses..................................................................................
Lost workdays...........................................................................................
Furniture and fixtures:
Total cases................................................................................................
Lost workday ca ses..................................................................................
Lost workdays...........................................................................................
Stone, clay, and glass products:
Total cases................................................................................................
Lost workday ca ses..................................................................................
Lost workdays...........................................................................................
Primary metal industries:
Total cases................................................................................................
Lost workday cases ..................................................................................
Lost workdays................................................. ..........................................
Fabricated metal products:
Total cases...............................................................................................
Lost workday ca ses.................................................................................
Lost workdays...........................................................................................
Machinery, except electrical:
Lost workday cases.................................................................................
4.e
Electric and electronic equipment:
Lost workdays..........................................................................................
Transportation equipment:
10.1
4.9
7 .4
Instruments and related products:
Lost workday ca ses.............................................................. ..................
2.C
z:
39.2
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries:
Lost workday cases ................................................................................
Lost workdays..........................................................................................
See footnotes at end of table.
98
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
i
10."
4 .4
68.2
_
48. Continued— Occupational injury and illness incidence rates by industry, United States
Incidence rates per 100 full-time workers2
Industry and type of case1
1976
N ondurable goo ds
Food and kindred products:
Total c a s e s ............................................................
Lost workday c a s e s ............................................
Lost w o rkda ys....... ...............................................
Tobacco manufacturing:
Total c a s e s ............................................................
Lost workday c a s e s ............................................
Lost w o rkda ys.......................................................
Textile mill products:
Total c a s e s .............................................................
Lost workday c a s e s ............................................ .
Lost w o rkda ys.......................................................
Apparel and other textile products:
Total c a s e s ............................................................
Lost workday c a s e s .............................................
Lost w o rkda ys.......................................................
Paper and allied products:
Total c a s e s .............................................................
Lost workday c a s e s .............................................
Lost w o rkda ys.......................................................
Printing and publishing:
Total c a s e s .............................................................
Lost workday c a s e s .............................................
Lost w o rkda ys........................................................
Chemicals and allied products:
Total c a s e s .............................................................
Lost workday c a s e s .............................................
Lost w o rkda ys........................................................
Petroleum and coal products:
Total c a s e s .............................................................
Lost workday c a s e s .............................................
Lost w o rkdays........................................................
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products:
Total c a s e s .............................................................
Lost workday c a s e s .............................................
Lost w o rkda ys........................................................
Leather and leather products:
Total c a s e s .............................................................
Lost workday c a s e s .............................................
Lost w o rkda ys........................................................
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
19.3
8.0
123.8
19.5
8.5
130.1
19.4
8.9
132.2
19.9
9.5
141.8
18.7
9.0
136.8
17.8
8.6
130.7
16.7
8.0
129.3
16.5
7.9
131.2
131.6
10.0
4.1
62.5
9.1
3.8
66.7
8.7
4.0
58.6
9.3
4.2
64.8
8.1
3.8
45.8
8.2
3.9
56.8
7.2
3.2
44.6
6.5
3.0
42.8
7.7
3.2
51.7
10.5
2.7
55.5
10.2
2.9
57.4
10.2
3.4
61.5
9.7
3.4
61.3
9.1
3.3
62.8
8.8
3.2
59.2
7.6
2.8
53.8
7.4
2.8
51.4
3.0
54.0
6.7
1.9
31.0
6.7
2.0
31.7
6.5
2.2
32.4
6.5
2.2
34.1
6.4
2.2
34.9
6.3
2.2
35.0
6.0
2.1
36.4
6.4
2.4
40.6
6.7
2.5
40.9
13.7
4.7
94.8
13.6
5.0
101.6
13.5
5.7
103.3
13.5
6.0
108.4
12.7
5.8
112.3
11.6
5.4
103.6
10.6
4.9
99.1
10.0
4.5
90.3
10.4
4.7
93.8
6.8
2.6
40.3
6.8
2.7
41.7
7.0
2.9
43.8
7.1
3.1
45.1
6.9
3.1
46.5
6.7
3.0
47.4
6.6
2.8
45.7
6.6
2.9
44.6
6.5
2.9
46.0
8.2
3.1
50.6
8.0
3.1
51.4
7.8
3.3
50.9
7.7
3.5
54.9
6.8
3.1
50.3
6.6
3.0
48.1
5.7
2.5
39.4
5.5
2.5
42.3
5.3
2.4
40.8
7.9
3.2
62.5
8.1
3.3
59.2
7.9
3.4
58.3
7.7
3.6
62.0
7.2
3.5
59.1
6.7
2.9
51.2
5.3
2.5
46.4
5.5
2.4
46.8
5.1
2.4
53.5
16.8
7.1
113.3
16.8
7.6
118.1
17.1
8.1
125.5
17.1
8.2
127.1
15.5
7.4
118.6
14.6
7.2
117.4
12.7
6.0
100.9
13.0
6.2
101.4
13.6
6.4
104.3
11.6
4.1
69.0
11.5
4.4
68.9
11.7
4.7
72.5
11.5
4.9
76.2
11.7
5.0
82.7
11.5
5.1
82.6
9.9
4.5
86.5
10.0
4.4
87.3
10.5
4.7
94.4
9.8
5.0
94.0
9.7
5.3
95.9
10.1
5.7
102.3
10.0
5.9
107.0
9.4
5.5
104.5
9.0
5.3
100.6
8.5
4.9
96.7
8.2
4.7
94.9
5.2
105.1
7.5
2.8
43.2
7.7
2.9
44.0
7.9
3.2
44.9
8.0
3.4
49.0
7.4
3.2
48.7
7.3
3.1
45.3
7.2
3.1
45.5
7.2
3.1
47.8
7.4
3.3
50.5
8.1
3.3
51.8
8.5
3.6
52.5
8.9
3.9
57.5
8.8
4.1
59.1
8.2
3.9
58.2
7.7
3.6
54.7
7.1
3.4
52.1
7.0
3.2
50.6
7.2
3.5
55.5
7.2
2.6
39.7
7.4
2.7
40.5
7.5
2.8
39.7
7.7
3.1
44.7
7.1
2.9
44.5
7.1
2.9
41.1
7.2
2.9
42.6
7.3
3.0
46.7
7.5
3.2
48.4
2.0
.7
11.6
2.0
.8
10.4
2.1
.8
12.5
2.1
.9
13.3
2.0
.8
12.2
1.9
.8
11.6
2.0
.9
13.2
2.0
.9
12.8
1.9
.9
13.6
5.3
2.0
38.4
5.5
2.2
35.4
5.5
2.4
36.2
5.5
2.5
38.1
5.2
2.3
35.8
5.0
2.3
35.9
4.9
2.3
35.8
5.1
2.4
37.0
5.2
2.5
41.1
16.7
8.1
8.0
T r a n s p o r t a t io n a n d p u b lic u tilitie s
Total cases...................................................................
Lost workday cases.....................................................
Lost workdays .............................................................
8.8
W h o le s a le a n d r e ta il tr a d e
Total cases...................................................................
Lost workday ca ses.....................................................
Lost workdays..............................................................
Wholesale trade:
Total cases...................................................................
Lost workday ca ses.....................................................
Lost workdays...............................................................
Retail trade:
Total cases...................................................................
Lost workday cases.....................................................
Lost workdays...............................................................
F in a n c e , in s u ra n c e , a n d r e a l e s t a t e
Total cases...................................................................
Lost workday ca ses.....................................................
Lost workdays...............................................................
S e r v ic e s
Total cases............................................
Lost workday cases..............................
Lost workdays.......................................
1 Total cases include fatalities.
2 The incidence rates represent the number of injuries and illnesses or lost
workdays per 100 full-time workers and were calculated as(N/EH) X 200,000, where:
N = number of injuries and illnesses or lost workdays.
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EH = total hours worked by all employees during calendar year.
200,000 = base for 100 full-time equivalent workers (working 40 hours per
week, 50 weeks per year.)
3 Excludes farms with fewer than 11 employees since 1976.
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A m erican industries (tires and inner tu b es, alu m in u m ,
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Education, Social Service, and Related O ccupations. Bulletin
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Area Wage Summaries
Battle Creek, M I, May 1986. 3 pp.
Beaum ont-Port Arthur-Orange and Lake Charles, T X -L A , May
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