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MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
U.S. Department of Labor
Bureau of Labor Statistics
August 1981
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
In this issue:
Projections of the economy, e
and occupational structure to
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
Raymond J. Donovan, Secretary
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS
Janet L. Norwood, Commissioner
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/l\lr
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW
CJBRa r y
AUGUST 1981
VOLUME 104, NUMBER 8
d> 8 flBT
Henry Lowenstern, Editor-in-Chief
Robert W. Fisher, Executive Editor
Diane N. Westcott
3
Employment and unemployment in the first half of 1981
Employment growth was sluggish as auto manufacturing lagged behind other industries,
and homebuilding remained depressed; unemployment held close to late 1980 levels
THE U.S. ECONOMY IN 1990
Ronald E. Kutscher
9
New economic projections through 1990— an overview
BLS has updated its projections for the decade to reflect recent social, political,
and economic developments; three scenarios provide range of possible growth
Norman C. Saunders
18
The U.S. economy through 1990— an update
Revised projections indicate a shift from government spending to private investment;
scenarios assume broad range of values for productivity, inflation, and fiscal policy
Valerie A. Personick
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
28
The outlook for industry output and employment through 1990
The future looks bright for service, durable goods, and high-technology industries;
projections assume lower unemployment and taxes, higher investment and productivity
Max L. Carey
42
Occupational employment growth through 1990
Three sets of projections all show high growth for white-collar and service workers,
but slow growth for blue-collar workers and decreases among farmworkers
DEPARTMENTS
2
56
59
60
63
69
Labor month in review
Family budgets
Major agreements expiring next month
Developments in industrial relations
Book reviews
Current labor statistics
XT
Labor M onth
In Review
SMSA EXPANSION. What do Kitsap,
Onslow, Sutter, and Whatcom have in
common? These counties are part of 36
new Standard Metropolitan Statistical
Areas ( s m s a ’s) , bringing the total to 323.
The designation of the new areas by the
Office of Management and Budget is
one of the first official actions resulting
from the 1980 Census of Population.
The areas reflect 1980 standards de
veloped by the Federal Committee on
SMSA’s.
Connective communities. The general
concept of a metropolitan statistical area
is one of a large population nucleus and
its adjacent communities which have a
high degree of economic and social in
tegration with that nucleus. Thus, in the
simplest case, an s m s a will contain at
least one city and the county in which
that city is located. Under the 1980
standards, an area qualifies for
recognition as an s m s a if there is a city
of at least 50,000 population or if
there is an urban area with a population
of 50,000 within a total metropolitan
population of at least 100,000. Standard
definitions for metropolitan areas were
introduced about 30 years ago. Such
definitions enable all Federal statistical
agencies to use the same geographic
definition when compiling data on
metropolitan characteristics. State and
local governments and private statistical
agencies also find the standard defini
tions useful in compiling their own
metropolitan statistics.
New areas. Following are the 36 new
and their components:
Anderson, S.C.—Anderson County.
Arecibo, Puerto Rico—Arecibo
Municipio, Camuy Municipio, and
Hatillo Muncipio.
A thens, G a .—C larke C ounty,
Jackson County, Madison County, and
Oconee County.
Bangor, Maine—In Penobscot Coun
s m s a ’s
Digitized for
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ty: Bangor city, Brewer city, Eddington
town, Glenburn town, Hampden town,
Hermon town, Holden town, Kenduskeag town, Old Town city, Orono
town, Orrington town, Penobscot In
dian Island Indian Reservation, and
Veazie town. In Waldo County: Winterport town.
Bellingham , W ash.—W hatcom
County.
Benton H arbor, M ich.—Berrien
County.
Bremerton, Wash.—Kitsap County.
Burlington, Vt. —In C hittenden
County: Burlington city, Charlotte
town, Colchester town, Essex town,
Hinesburg town, Jericho town, Milton
town, Richmond town, St. George
town, Shelburne town, South Burl
ington city, Williston town, and
Winooski city. In Franklin County:
Georgia town. In Grand Isle County:
South Hero town.
Casper, Wyo.—Natrona County.
Charlottesville, V a.,—Albemarle
County, Fluvanna County, Greene
County, and Charlottesville city.
Chico, Calif.—Butte County.
Cumberland, Md.-W.Va.—Allegany
County, Md. and Mineral County,
W. Va.
Danville, Va.—Pittsylvania County
and Danville city.
Florence, S.C.—Florence County.
Fort Walton Beach, Fla.—Okaloosa
County.
Glens Falls, N.Y.—Warren County
and Washington County.
H agerstow n, M d.—W ashington
County.
Hickory, N.C.—Alexander County
and Catawba County.
Jacksonville, N.C.—Onslow County.
Joplin, Mo.—Jasper County and
Newton County.
Medford, Oreg.—Jackson, County.
Newark-, Ohio—Licking County.
N ew burgh-M iddletow n, N .Y .—
Orange County.
O cala, F la .—M arion C ounty.
Olympia, Wash.—Thurston County.
P o rts m o u th -D o v e r-R o c h e s te r,
N.H.-Maine—In Rockingham County,
N.H.: Greenland town, Hampton town,
New Castle town, Newfields town, New
ington town, Newmarket town, North
Hampton town, Portsmouth city, and
Rye town. In Strafford County, N.H.:
Barrington town, Dover city, Durham
town, Farmington town, Lee town,
M adbury tow n, Rochester city,
Rollinsford town, and Somersworth
city. In York County, Maine: Berwick
town, Eliot town, Kittery town, South
Berwick town, and York town.
Redding, Calif.—Shasta County.
Rock Hill, S.C .—York County.
Salisbury-Concord, N.C.—Cabarrus
County and Rowan County.
S haron, P a .—M ercer C ounty.
Sheboygan, Wis. —Sheboygan
County.
State College, Pa.—Centre County.
Victoria, Tex.—Victoria County.
Visalia-Tulare-Porterville,
Calif.—Tulare County.
Wausau, Wis.—Marathon County.
Yuba City, Calif.—Sutter County and
Yuba County.
More changes in metropolitan sta
tistical areas probably will occur in 1983,
following the release of commuting data
based on the 1980 census.
Dropped area. Only one area no longer
qualifies as an s m s a —Rapid City, S.D.
This area was first designated as a s m s a
in 1978 on the basis of 1970 standards.
Rapid City does not meet the population
requirements of the 1980 standards, and
it no longer meets those of the 1970
standards.
Complete information on the new
and s m s a standards is available
from the Office of Management and
Budget, Washington, D.C. 20503.
□
s m s a ’s
Employment and unemployment
in the first half of 1981
Employment displayed sluggish growth
as auto manufacturing failed to keep pace
with other industries and homebuilding
remained depressed; unemployment
held close to the late 1980 levels
D ia n e N. W estcott
Labor market signals became mixed as 1981 unfolded.
During the first half of the year, total employment con
tinued to show some signs of improvement from the re
cessionary declines of 1980. However, unemployment
was reasonably stable, with the overall jobless rate at
7.4 percent in each of the first two quarters of 1981, not
much different from the 7.5-percent rate in the last half
of 1980. Although both the household and payroll em
ployment series1 were moving upward, the pace of the
payroll series slowed to almost a trickle by the end of
the second quarter.
Employment in 1980 had been curtailed largely as a
result of job losses in manufacturing and construction
— particularly in two key industries, automobile manu
facturing and housing construction. Although total pay
roll employment expanded during the first half of the
year, construction and manufacturing did not. The job
count has been at a virtual standstill in these two indus
tries since the fourth quarter 1980.
Employment in the domestic automobile industry,
however, was up somewhat by the second quarter. This
can be attributed, in part, to the spurt in auto sales
which resulted from the rebates offered by U.S. auto
manufacturers early in 1981 and from the subsequent
Diane N. Westcott is an economist in the Division of Employment
and Unemployment Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
rebuilding of inventories of 1981 models before the
close of the model year. It is questionable, though,
whether this increase in U.S. auto sales will be
sustained; the cost of borrowing remains high and the
manufacturers’ rebate program has ended.
The housing industry remained depressed in the first
half. Mortgage interest rates were consistently high, and
the new forms of financing by lending institutions to
make borrowing more feasible did little to reassure buy
ers and home builders. Although interest rates have
climbed to new heights, thus far, only the housing in
dustry seems to have suffered unduly.
Homebuilding, auto manufacturing still struggling
During the first half of 1981 nonfarm payroll employ
ment continued the gains begun in the second half of
1980. From the third quarter low of 90.2 million, the
payroll job count rose to 91.5 million by the second
quarter of 1981; however, the rate of growth has slowed
considerably since the beginning of the year. (See table
1.) Of the 172 private nonagricultural industries in the
Bureau of Labor Statistics’ diffusion index, only 56 per
cent registered gains in the first quarter, compared with
62 percent in the last quarter of 1980.
Jobs in the service-producing sector, which have tra
ditionally been relatively immune from recession com
pared with the goods sector, increased throughout 1980
3
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW August 1981 • Employment and Unemployment
and in the first half of 1981, but at a considerably
slower pace than in the few years immediately preceding
the recession. At midyear, employment totaled 65.8 mil
lion in this sector, up 1.3 million from the first quarter
of 1980. This overall pattern masked some important
differences among the industries that constitute this
group. Most of the increase in the first half 1981 was in
services and retail trade; transportation and public utili
ties and government exhibited almost no growth or ac
tually declined.
Job expansion in the goods-producing industries was
rather limited in the first 6 months of the year; conse
quently, employment had not yet returned to prereces
sion levels. Employment in construction not only did
not pick up during the first half, but actually experi
enced further decline. At 4.3 million in the second quar
ter, total jobs equaled the third quarter 1980
recessionary low. While most of the economy was able
to adjust to the high interest rates, the housing market
remained sharply curtailed. The rate of housing starts,
for example, had declined steadily and sharply from the
third quarter of 1979, when it averaged 1.8 million, to
below 1 million by the second quarter 1980. A year lat
er housing starts were still low. Construction employ
ment, which had dropped sharply in early 1980, was on
the rise by yearend as mortgage interest rates declined
temporarily and the Federal Government made funds
available for the construction of multifamily dwellings.
However, the start of 1981 saw a resumption of increas
ing interest rates and a corresponding decline in con
struction employment, especially in the residential and
office building sectors. This was also reflected in the
movement of the unemployment rate for workers in
construction, which had declined from its high of 16.3
percent in the third quarter of 1980 to 13.8 percent in
the first quarter of 1981, only to rise again in the sec
ond quarter. The following tabulation shows employ
ment (from payroll series) in the construction and
related industries and the unemployment rate (from the
household series) for the construction industry, 1980-81
quarterly averages (second quarter 1981 data are pre
liminary):
1980
Employment (in thousands):
Construction, general
building contractors . . . .
Manufacturing:
Lumber and wood
products ...........................
Furniture and fixtures . . .
Stone, clay, and glass . . .
Unemployment rate:
C onstruction..............................
1980
Employment (in thousands):
Motor vehicles and
equip m ent........................
Other manufacturing:
Primary m etals................ .
Fabricated m e ta ls ...........
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics . . .
1981
/
II
III
IV
I
II
851
739
721
739
722
752
1,217
1,682
1,156
1,612
1,080
1,562
1,123
1,580
1,139
1,579
1,142
1,601
761
731
706
725
732
751
16.7
24.7
22.4
17.2
17.9
11.6
1981
I
II
III
IV
I
II
1,261
1,207
1,183
1,208
1,215
1,176
737
487
694
672
471
663
671
455
651
683
463
656
691
466
653
704
483
657
11.8
15.6
16.3
14.4
13.8
15.8
Along with construction, manufacturing, particularly
Digitized for
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the durable goods sector, bore the brunt of the business
reversals in 1980. Nondurables, although not as severely
cut back, experienced no growth over the year. The first
half of 1981, however, saw limited job expansion in
both the durable and nondurable goods sectors. By
m id-1981, manufacturing employment totaled 20.4 mil
lion, only 400,000 above its third quarter 1980 low. The
manufacturing layoff rate (often used as an advance in
dicator of cyclical changes) remained at a relatively high
level throughout 1980 and 1981, reflecting curtailed job
opportunities in this sector. Likewise, the quit rate,
which indicates how workers assess the strength of the
demand for labor, fell throughout 1980 and showed no
improvement during the first 6 months of this year.
The economic reversal of 1980 was devastating in the
auto industry, where one-third of the total jobs, or
320,000 workers, were cut between the first quarter of
1979 and the third quarter of 1980. Unemployment in
this industry reached a record 24.7 percent in the sec
ond quarter of 1980, receded to 17.2 percent by
yearend, and fell to 11.6 percent by the second quarter
1981, as some of the unemployed auto workers were re
called, while others probably found work elsewhere.
Employment in the auto industry, spurred by an ex
tensive rebate program, showed some improvement over
the first 6 months of 1981, rising by 30,000. However,
by the end of the first half, manufacturers’ rebates were
no longer in effect and interest rates were up again leav
ing the continued expansion of the auto industry in
doubt. The following tabulation shows employment
(from payroll series) in the auto and related industries
and the unemployment rate (from the household sur
vey) in the auto industry, 1980-81 quarterly averages
(second quarter 1981 data are preliminary):
Unemployment rate:
Auto manufacturing.............
Employment changes in both the housing construc
tion and auto manufacturing industries are generally
thought to be key indicators of the general health and
pace of the economy because of their strong ties to oth
er industries. With the tightness in the money market,
there were sizable cutbacks in industries related to
home building— such as lumber, furniture, stone, clay
and glass, and appliances— during 1980, and although
they recovered somewhat by yearend, their employment
gains were unimpressive during the first half of the year.
Table 1.
Highlights of the employment situation, seasonally adjusted quarterly averages, 1980-81
1981
1980
1979
Selected categories
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
Civilian labor force ............................................................
Employed.......................................................................
Men, 20 years and o v e r............................................
Women, 20 years and over ......................................
Both sexes, 16 to 19 years ......................................
Unemployed...................................................................
103,741
97,572
52,360
37,260
7,952
6,169
104,217
97,718
52,310
37,549
7,859
6,499
104,693
97,040
51,810
37,603
7,627
7,652
104,982
97,061
51,776
37,807
7,477
7,921
105,173
97,276
52,005
37,828
7,443
7,897
105,800
98,012
52,245
38,389
7,377
7,788
106,768
98,868
52,683
38,929
7,256
7,900
Unemployment rates:
All w o rkers................................................................
Men, 20 years and o v e r............................................
Women, 20 years and over ......................................
Both sexes, 16 to 19 years ......................................
5.9
4.4
5.7
16.2
6.2
4.8
5.8
16.4
7.3
6.2
6.4
17.9
7.5
6.6
6.4
18.4
7.5
6.3
6.7
18.3
7.4
6.0
6.6
19.1
7.4
6.1
6.6
19.2
W h ite .........................................................................
Black .........................................................................
Hispanic.....................................................................
5.2
12.1
9.0
5.5
12.6
9.3
6.5
14.1
10.1
6.7
14.9
10.8
6.6
15.2
10.2
6.6
14.4
11.3
6.5
14.9
9.8
White-collar workers .................................................
Blue-collar workers ...................................................
Service workers .......................................................
Farm w o rke rs............................................................
3.3
7.5
6.8
4.3
3.4
8.1
7.0
4.2
3.7
10.5
8.0
4.7
3.8
11.1
8.3
4.8
3.9
10.7
8.1
4.1
3.9
10.0
8.3
5.0
4.0
9.8
9.0
5.0
Full-time workers.......................................................
Part-time workers .....................................................
5.5
8.6
5.8
8.7
7.0
8.9
7.3
8.7
7.3
8.6
7.1
9.1
7.1
9.3
Nonfarm payroll employment............................................
Goods producing............................................................
Mining .......................................................................
Construction ..............................................................
Manufacturing............................................................
Durables................................................................
Nondurables ..........................................................
Service producing..........................................................
Transportation and public utilities .............................
Finance, insurance and real estate ...........................
Wholesale and retail tra d e ........................................
Retail tra d e ............................................................
Services.....................................................................
Government ..............................................................
90,460
26,424
983
4,513
20,928
12,675
8,253
64,036
5,194
5,052
20,324
15,071
17,409
16,056
90,808
26,329
999
4,527
20,803
12,603
8,201
64,479
5,178
5,104
20,370
15,085
17,656
16,170
90,450
25,678
1,017
4,381
20,280
12,165
8,115
64,772
5,153
5,142
20,303
15,034
17,796
16,377
90,213
25,306
1,012
4,319
19,976
11,911
8,064
64,907
5,123
5,189
20,406
15,131
17,988
16,201
90,820
25,594
1,051
4,385
20,158
12,060
8,098
65,227
5,120
5,237
20,465
15,168
18,162
16,242
91,232
25,670
1,091
4,398
20,181
12,086
8,095
65,562
5,133
5,281
20,588
15,277
18,338
16,222
e91,501
025,721
p 1,004
0 4,334
p20,383
p 12,239
08,145
065,780
0 5,156
0 5,322
020,677
0 15,335
0 18,520
0 16,105
Average weekly hours:
Total private...................................................................
Manufacturing................................................................
35.6
40.0
35.4
39.9
35.2
39.5
35.2
39.4
35.3
39.8
35.3
39.9
035.4
040.2
p=preliminary.
Likewise, automaking is linked to the production of
steel and other metals and rubber and plastics. These
industries followed essentially the same pattern, ex
hibiting substantial declines in early 1980, a brief pick
up at yearend, and limited growth in the first half of
1981. (However, the growth in steel and other metals
was largely being spurred by the demand for pipes to
be used in drilling equipment, and to only a limited ex
tent by the increase in auto production.)
By m id-1981, there were other signs that economic
conditions were becoming troublesome. The average
workweek in manufacturing, which usually lengthens
before employment expands, moved up in the fourth
quarter of 1980 but held about steady during the first
half of 1981. And the index of aggregate weekly hours
of production or nonsupervisory workers on private
nonagricultural payrolls held steady throughout the
first half of 1981, after rising from a low reached during
the summer of 1980. This index is perhaps the most
comprehensive measure of employment activity because
it reflects both the number of production worker jobs
and paid hours on these jobs.
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Adult men— hardest hit, but improving
Total employment from the household survey, at 99
million in the second quarter of 1981, had grown by 1.8
million from its 1980 low. The number of employed
adult men (20 years and over), which had dropped sub
stantially during the 1980 downturn, exhibited solid
growth in the first half of 1981, reaching 52.7 million
by midyear. (See table 1.) Employment of adult women,
which was less adversely affected by the recent cut
backs, continued on its historical upward trend, ac
counting for about two-thirds of the employment
increase between the second quarters of 1980 and 1981.
Nevertheless, the employment rise among women was
not as rapid as during the previous several years.
Employment of teenagers, which declined in 1980,
showed little change in the first half of 1981. The em
ployment drop during last year was not unexpected be
cause the effect of the postwar baby boom on the
expansion of the population has run its course and the
percentage of youth in the labor force has begun to de
cline. By the second quarter of 1981, teenage employ5
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW August 1981 • Employment and Unemployment
ment had dropped 700,000 from its prerecession level.
The different employment trends in 1980 and 1981
for men and women are attributable, in part, to the na
ture of their occupational and industrial attachment.
Cyclical slowdowns in employment are generally con
centrated among blue-collar workers, a factor that is
heavily reflected in the situation of men. Total blue-col
lar employment had been declining steadily since the
latter half of 1979 and had only begun to edge up dur
ing the first half of 1981. As indicated earlier, the recent
recession was felt most strongly in the construction and
durable goods manufacturing industries, in which men
account for more than three-fourths of the employed.
Consequently, employment declines among men were
greater than among women. Furthermore, by the end of
the first half of 1981 these industries had still not fully
recovered earlier losses.
A look at the employment-population ratio provides
additional information on the performance of the econo
my. Unlike the labor force participation rate, which
measures the proportion of the population offering ser
vices in the labor market, the employment ratio mea
sures the portion of the population whose labor is
actually being used in the economy. Thus, the ratio re
sponds primarily to a change in the number of jobhold
ers.
Although the overall employment-population ratio
moved upward in the first half of 1981, the degree var
ied by age-sex groups, as shown in the following tabula
tion of seasonally adjusted data:
1980
Total
Teenagers ...........................
Adult m e n ...........................
Adult w o m e n .....................
1981
I
II
III
IV
59.1
47.3
73.9
48.2
58.5
46.0
72.9
48.1
58.3
45.2
72.5
48.1
58.2
45.2
72.5
47.9
I
II
58.4
45.1
72.5
48.4
58.8
44.6
72.8
48.9
For adult men, the employment ratio had held
constant at 72.5 percent during the latter half of 1980
and the first quarter of 1981 before increasing to 72.8
percent in the second quarter. The ratio for adult wom
en has been rising steadily for over two decades, paus
ing only during recessions. The first half of 1981 saw a
resumption in its growth, as the ratio moved steadily
from its 1980 low to a record 48.9 percent by the sec
ond quarter 1981. The teenage ratio (like the teenage
unemployment rate), which moves more sharply and
less consistently than that of adults, was 44.6 percent in
the second quarter, 3 percentage points below its prere
cession level.2
Almost all of the growth in employment since last
year was accounted for by persons working full time
(35 hours per week or more). The number of persons at
work on full-time schedules in nonagricultural indus
tries was 73.1 million in the second quarter of 1981, up
1.6 million from 1980. But, while full-time employment
6
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
grew during the first half of 1981, the number of per
sons on part-time schedules for economic reasons did
not begin to recede until the second quarter and had
yet to return to prerecession levels, as reflected in the
following tabulation of quarterly averages for non
agricultural workers (seasonally adjusted data in thou
sands):
1980
Full-time schedules . .
Part time for economic
reasons .....................
Voluntary part time . .
1981
/
II
III
IV
/
II
72,839
71,647
71,427
72,156
72,876
73,083
3,491
12,484
4,016
12,340
4,137
12,393
4,205
12,190
4,282
12,350
3,994
12,448
In recovery periods, the number of persons working
involuntarily on shortened work schedules (those who
want full-time work but are working part time because
employers have reduced their hours or because no full
time job was available) usually turns downward a few
months prior to unemployment. That is, employers tend
to restore hours before recalling those on layoff or hir
ing new workers. The fact that the number of involun
tary part-timers had declined only slightly by midyear
suggests a continued sluggishness in the job market.
Unemployment stable
The unemployment situation was little changed dur
ing the first half of 1981; the overall unemployment
rate, at 7.4 percent in each of the first two quarters, was
not unlike the latter half of 1981. Likewise, the level of
unemployment, at 7.9 million in the second quarter,
had been relatively stable since m id-1980.
There was considerable deviation from this pattern
among the various groups. Adult men, who had
accounted for most of the increase in unemployment
during 1980, showed strong improvement in early 1981,
as their unemployment rate fell from 6.6 percent in the
third quarter of last year to 6.0 percent, before edging
up in the second quarter. In contrast, the unemploy
ment rate for teenagers, at 19.2 percent at midyear was
higher than anytime during 1980, while the rate for
adult women, which had risen to 6.7 percent by the end
of last year, held near that rate in the first half of 1981.
(See table 1.)
For white workers, the only improvement was among
men; as their unemployment rate dropped from 5.8 per
cent in the third quarter of 1980 to 5.4 percent in the
first quarter of 1981 and held there in the second quar
ter. In contrast, the rate for white women rose much
more slowly during the recession reaching 5.8 percent in
the third quarter 1980 and holding there in the first half
1981. The rate for black men,3 11.5 percent in the first
quarter, was down somewhat from 1980, but had edged
upward in the second quarter. Black women, at 12.9
percent, had no improvement in their unemployment
situation during the first half of the year.
In the second quarter, the Hispanic unemployment
rate was 9.8 percent, down from its recessionary high of
11.3 percent in the previous quarter. As usual, the job
less rate for Hispanics was between the higher rate of
14.9 percent among blacks and the lower rate of 6.5
percent among whites.
Blue-collar workers, especially operatives and non
farm laborers, were the hardest hit during the 1980 cut
backs. By m id-1981 the unemployment rate for bluecollar workers was 9.8 percent, down from its high of
11.1 percent last year. In marked contrast, unemploy
ment among white-collar workers was not as affected by
the recession. However, the rate for white-collar work
ers had continued to edge upward in 1980 and 1981,
and in the second quarter, was at its highest point (4.0
percent) since late 1977. The unemployment rate for
service workers also rose during the first half of 1981
and stood at 9.0 percent at midyear.
The duration of unemployment continued rising
throughout 1980; the median turned around in the
fourth quarter of last year while the mean reached a
high of 14.3 weeks in the first quarter of 1981. Modest
improvements in both were visible by midyear. Typical
ly, movements in the average (mean) length of time
workers remain unemployed lag behind changes in the
unemployment rate. When conditions first begin to im
prove, some of the workers recently laid off or terminat
ed from jobs are rehired, while those with longer
durations of joblessness continue without work. Thus,
for a while, the average duration actually lengthens.
Only after the improvement is sustained are the long
term unemployed rehired and the average duration re
duced.4
The deterioration of the economy was reflected in the
increased number of job losers (persons on layoff and
those permanently separated) in 1980; job losers
accounted for 55 percent of total unemployment by the
third quarter. At the beginning of 1981, the share of the
unemployed who were job losers dropped a bit to 50
percent and held about steady over the next 6 months.
By the second quarter, the proportion of the unem
Table 2.
ployed who had lost their last job was still well above
the prerecession level of 43 percent during 1979.
Coincident with the rise in job-loser unemployment,
the percentage of unemployed who voluntarily left their
jobs declined steadily in 1979 and 1980. But as econom
ic conditions began to improve somewhat, the job-leav
er share of total joblessness once again began to rise in
1981.
Participation of women continues upward
Labor force growth had slowed considerably during
1980, in response to changes in economic conditions.
During the first half of 1981, however, the civilian labor
force rose by 1.6 million, with sustained growth in em
ployment. Both men and women contributed to the rise
in the labor force.
After falling during the latter half of 1980, the overall
labor force participation rate jumped up in the second
quarter of 1981, rising to 64.3 percent. However, pat
terns differed substantially among major age-sex groups.
The first half of 1981 saw a rise in the participation rate
of adult women, from 51.4 percent in the fourth quarter
of 1980 to 52.4 percent by the second quarter 1981. In
contrast, the second quarter rates for men and teenagers
had yet to return to prerecession levels.
As the labor force participation rate for all workers
increased during the first half of 1981, the number of
persons outside the labor force registered a decline of
about 530,000 over this period. Most of these non
participants had no current interest in the job market.
Nevertheless, the number who reported “wanting a job
now” (even though not looking for one) was still sizable
at 5.6 million — 3.8 million women and 1.8 million men.
(See table 2.) While most of these persons were not
looking for work because of school attendance, home
responsibilities, or ill health, more than a million re
ported that they were not seeking work because they
thought that their search would be in vain. Changes in
the number of these so-called “discouraged workers”
have been consistent with cyclical changes in the de
mand for labor and are positively related to changes in
Persons not in the labor force by reason, seasonally adjusted quarterly averages, 1980-81
[In thousands]
1981
1980
1979
Reason
Not in labor fo r c e ..............................................................
Do not want a job now .................................................
Want a job now ............................................................
Reason not looking:
School attendance.................................................
Ill health, disability .................................................
Home responsibilities............................................
Think cannot get job ............................................
Job market fa cto rs ............................................
Personal factors.................................................
All other reasons...................................................
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
II
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
58,850
53,574
5,333
58,999
53,573
5,548
59,111
54,851
5,431
59,493
54,231
5,605
59,906
54,521
5,586
59,820
53,998
5,905
59,377
54,320
5,568
1,478
785
1,245
766
465
301
1,058
1,453
771
1,335
949
603
345
1,040
1,461
728
1,195
921
626
294
1,127
1,517
759
1,235
961
669
292
1,133
1,466
710
1,179
1,055
697
358
1,176
1,521
817
1,290
1,115
876
239
1,162
1,502
742
1,246
1,018
703
316
1,059
7
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW August 1981 •
Occupational Employment Projections
the level and rate of unemployment.5 Thus, as the econ
omy turned downward in 1980, unemployment in
creased and the number of discouraged workers rose
from 770,000 at the end of 1979 to 1.1 million in the
first quarter of 1981. The level did recede somewhat in
the second quarter, however. Reflecting the serious eco
nomic situation, the cyclical increase in the number of
discouraged workers was due entirely to job market fac
tors. That is, workers became discouraged after having
tried unsuccessfully to find a job or after realizing that
suitable jobs were not available. There was essentially
no change in the number of workers who were discour
aged because of personal factors, such as perceiving
themselves as too young or too old, lacking sufficient
education or training, or having some other personal
handicap.
□
FOOTNOTES
Statistics on nonagricultural payroll employment and hours from
the Current Employment Statistics Program (CES) are collected by
State agencies from employer reports of payroll records and are tabu
lated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Data on labor force, total em
ployment, and unemployment are derived from the Current
Population Survey (CPS), a sample survey of households conducted
and tabulated by the Bureau of the Census for the Bureau of Labor
Statistics. A description of the two surveys appears in the Bureau of
Labor Statistics monthly publication, Employment and Earnings.
2 For a discussion of the employment-population ratio as a cyclical
indicator, see Carol Boyd Leon, “The employment-population ratio:
its value in labor force analysis,” Monthly Labor Review, February
1981, pp. 36-45 and Julius Shiskin, “Employment and unemploy
ment: the doughnut or the hole?” Monthly Labor Review, February
8
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
1976, pp. 3-10.
3 The term black in this article refers only to the black population
and not to the “ black and other” category, which includes blacks,
American Indians, Alaskan Natives, and Asian and Pacific Islanders.
4 For a more detailed discussion of unemployment by reason, see
Curtis L. Gilroy, “Job losers, leavers, and entrants: traits and trends,”
Monthly Labor Review, August 1973, pp. 3-15, and Curtis L. Gilroy
and Robert J. McIntyre, “Job losers, leavers, and entrants: a cyclical
analysis.” Monthly Labor Review, November 1974, pp. 35-39.
5For further detail on this subject, see Paul O. Flaim, “Discour
aged workers and changes in unemployment, "Monthly Labor Review,
March 1973, pp. 8-16 and Carol M. Ondeck, “Discouraged workers’
link to jobless rate reaffirmed,” Monthly Labor Review, October 1978,
pp. 40-42.
New economic projections
through 1990—an overview
BLS has updated its 1978-79 projections for the
decade of the 1980's to reflect recent social, political,
and economic developments; three scenarios, each based
on a unique set of assumptions about the future,
provide a range of possible growth paths
R o n a l d E. K utscher
The economic and employment outlook described in the
following articles was constructed as a regular part of
the Bureau’s medium-term projections program. This
program includes a series of closely related projections
encompassing the labor force by age, sex, and race;1
gross national product projections, in total and by ma
jor demand and income components; industry output
and employment; and occupational requirements, over
all and by industry. Estimates are derived through the
use of an integrated econometric framework, and are
updated by BLS every 2 years.
The following articles are based on three alternative
projections to 1990. These scenarios cover a number of
alternative assumptions yielding a reasonably broad
span of employment and GNP levels for 1990. It is like
ly, but of course not certain, that the actual course of
economic and employment development will fall within
such a wide band. Also, while alternative assumptions
are used for a few of the more im portant variables, it
was not possible to produce alternatives for all vari
ables. This would quickly have multiplied the number
of projections confronting the user, and rapidly
expanded the workload entailed in their completion.
The three alternatives do not conveniently fall into
“high” “medium,” or “low” categories. Therefore, users
of the projections will find it necessary to review the
Ronald E. Kutscher is Assistant Commissioner for Economic Growth
and Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
underlying assumptions to determine which of the three
scenarios seems most appropriate for their purposes.
Brief summary of the projections
Labor force. The Bureau of Labor Statistics developed
three labor force growth scenarios for the next decade:
a high-growth projection, which assumes rapid growth
in the labor force participation of women and the con
vergence of participation rates for black men and white
men under age 65; a middle-growth scenario with the
work force expansion attributable mostly to women;
and a low-growth path with only moderate increases in
the participation of women and with the continuing di
vergence in male participation between races.2 (See table
1 .)
Some salient elements of the labor force projections:
•
•
•
Because of past decline in birth rates, the labor force
will grow at decreasing rates throughout the next
decade.
Women’s labor force participation is expected to
continue to increase. Women should account for 2 of
every 3 additions to the labor force over the next de
cade.
While the overall birth rate for the United States has
been declining since about 1960, this has not been
true for blacks and other races. Therefore, represen
tation of these groups in the labor force will increase
over the next decade. During 1985-90, their rates of
entry will be at least double that for whites, and
9
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW August 1981 • Overview o f Economic Projections
Table 1.
Actual and projected civilian labor force based on three different growth paths, selected years, 1965-1990
Actual
labor force
(in millions)
Growth path
Total .........................................................................
Middle g ro w th ...................................................
High growth .....................................................
Low growth........................................................
M en............................................................................
Middle g ro w th ...................................................
High growth .....................................................
Low growth........................................................
Women .....................................................................
Middle g ro w th ...................................................
High growth .....................................................
l o w grow th.......................................................
•
•
1965
1975
1979
745
92.6
102.9
48.3
26.2
55.6
43.4
1985
1990
115.0
118.3
117.7
122.4
128.4
117.4
63.6
64.8
62.5
65.9
68.2
63.9
51.4
53.4
49.2
56.5
59.9
53.5
59.5
43.4
•
•
could be even higher under one of the alternative
projections developed.
The number of young people age 16 to 24 in the la
bor force will fall by at least 1.5 million over the de
cade, reflecting the past decline in birth rates.
The number of people age 55 and over in the labor
force will not increase as much as the 25 to 54 cate
gory, largely because of trends toward early retire
ment.
Use of alternative assumptions yields a GNP for 1990
of between $1.9 and $2.2 trillion (in 1972 dollars), a
spread of over $270 billion. The 1980-90 real GNP
average growth is 2.5 percent per year at the low
end of the alternatives and 3.9 percent at the high
end.
The low-path GNP growth projected for the 1980’s is
roughly consistent with the experience of the 1970’s.
The high alternative GNP growth rate is closer to the
path of the 1960’s.
Among the assumptions used in developing these al
ternatives, productivity (output per person-hour)
shows the widest variation. The lowest alternative
assumes 1980-90 productivity growth of 1.4 percent
per year. The highest alternative has assumed annual
growth of 2.6 percent.
Within GNP, the component of demand most sensi
tive to the alternative assumptions (particularly
those related to tax policy) is that for producers’ du
10
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
1975
to
1979
2.2
2.7
3.5
Among the highlights:
•
1965
to
1975
1.4
Economic projections. The three alternative projections
for the economy as a whole used differing assumptions
for five key variables: (1) fiscal policy, (2) labor force
growth, (3) productivity growth, (4) the unemployment
rate, and (5) price levels. Each of the alternative as
sumptions for these variables and the more significant
factors considered in arriving at the alternatives are dis
cussed in detail in the subsequent articles. Proper evalu
ation of the 1990 projections requires careful review of
these assumptions.
•
Annual percent change
Projected
labor force
(in millions)
•
•
•
Participation rate
1979
to
1985
1985
to
1990
1.9
2.4
1.4
1.3
1.6
1.0
1.1
1.4
.8
.7
1.0
.4
2.9
3.5
2.1
1.9
2.3
1.7
1.7
Actual
1975
1979
58.9
61.2
63.7
80.7
4.1
Projected
1965
39.3
77.9 •
51.0
1985
1990
66.5
68.4
64.6
67.9
71.1
65.2
77.7
79.2
76.3
77.2
79.9
74.9
56.5
58.7
54.1
59.6
63.2
56.4
77.9
51.0
rable equipment. In the low-path alternative, this
component increases by 4.7 percent annually over
the next decade, while in the two high-path scenar
ios, growth exceeds 8 percent per year. Exports also
show a large variation among the alternatives.
The demand category showing the most change from
recent trends is Federal defense purchases, which un
der each of the three alternatives are assumed to
grow at annual rates appreciably greater than in re
cent years.
The trend toward a smaller government share of fi
nal demand is expected to continue throughout the
1980’s in the two high-trend alternatives. In the lowtrend projections, the defense purchases component
of government demand is expected to grow sharply
in real terms during the early 1980’s, and then slow
slightly after 1985. Defense purchases are projected
to stabilize at about 5 percent of GNP over the latter
half of the decade.
In the State and local sector, the largest change
from prior trends is expected in the education field.
As the baby-boom generation matures, the number
of school enrollees should decline over most of the
decade. Thus, growth of educational purchases is
projected to dampen through 1985, with absolute
declines thereafter.
Employment and output
Employment. Between 1955 and 1980, the total number
of jobs3 in the economy increased from 68.7 million to
105.6 million, or by about 1.5 million a year; during
1973-80, annual job growth exceeded 2 million. Over
the next decade, major changes in employment are as
sumed under each of the alternatives discussed in these
articles. Total employment is expected to increase by an
average of 1.6 percent— or 2.2 million jobs— each year
between 1980 and 1985 in the low-growth and hightrend II versions. In the high-trend I version, a higher
labor force projection, combined with an even more
rapid decline in the unemployment rate, yields annual
employment growth of 2.4 percent between 1980 and
Uses of projections
A wide range of persons and organizations use the BLS
projections. M any are interested in only a particular ele
m ent, w hile others use all or m ost of the projection com
ponents.
L a b o r f o r c e estim a tes. The U.S. D epartm ent of Labor,
C ongress, and the Congressional Budget Office use the la
bor force projections for analyses in which the future de
m ographic com position of the work force is an im portant
consideration. The Bureau of E conom ic A n alysis and Bu
reau of the Census of the U.S. D epartm ent of Com m erce
use the detailed labor force estim ates for their own projec
tions and analyses. Other executive branch agencies use
these data chiefly in EEO studies. In nearly all of the States,
BLS labor force projections provide the framework for de
veloping State labor force projections needed for planning
purposes.
Private users include market researchers, corporate plan
ners, and others w ho build m acro-m odels or estim ate re
cruitm ent needs. A n d international agencies are supplied
the data for inform ation and research.
P ro jectio n s f o r th e o v e ra ll e co n o m y a n d b y in du stry. These
estim ates and their underlying data bases are used by F ed
eral agencies in preparing budget estim ates or em ploym ent
analyses, or as a framework for m ore detailed m odels of
particular interest to their departm ents. The latter include
projections of the energy situation; environm ental develop
ments; housing, transportation, or defense requirements;
and capital availability. A lso, the U.S. D epartm ent of
H ousing and Urban D evelopm ent regularly uses the pro
jections in T he H o u sin g R e p o r t o f th e P residen t, as does the
Labor D epartm ent’s E m ploym ent and Training A d m in is
tration in T he E m p lo y m e n t a n d T ra in in g R e p o rt o f th e
P residen t.
A m on g international users of the overall econom ic pro
jections are international agencies which m onitor the future
prospects of the U.S. econom y, those interested in research
m ethods, and those specializing in unique historical aspects
of the N a tio n ’s econom ic developm ent, such as capital
stock by industry, tim e series on output and em ploym ent
by industry, or input-output data.
State and local governm ents, area planning councils, cor
porations, outside research organizations, and universities
also use the BLS data for planning purposes, as input to
m ore specific m odels by locality or industry, or as a means
to evaluate projections developed by them selves or by oth
ers.
O c cu p a tio n a l pro jection s. This inform ation is used in pre
paring the Bureau’s O c cu p a tio n a l O u tlo o k H a n d b o o k , a tool
for career guidance; education planning; policy and pro
gram analysis, evaluation, and developm ent by governm ent
and private organizations; and research conducted by other
organizations. The Survey of Career Inform ation System s
in Secondary Schools, a N ational Institute of Education
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
study conducted by the E ducation T esting Service of
Princeton, N .J., revealed the H a n d b o o k to be the m ost fre
quently chosen resource of counselors and secondary
school students. The H a n d b o o k is used primarily in high
schools, but is also of value to elem entary schools, co l
leges, vocational schools, public em ploym ent offices, place
m ent services for members of the A rm ed Forces returning
to civilian life, organizations which help the econom ically
disadvantaged, and vocational rehabilitation facilities.
N ational occupational em ploym ent data and projections
are used at all levels of governm ent, and by others, to for
m ulate education plans. Included are such agencies as the
N ational Science F oundation, and the A dm inistration on
A ging, which provide Federal funds for specialized educa
tion and training to ensure them selves of an adequate sup
ply of qualified workers. A t tim es such agencies have
contracted with the Bureau to do special studies in these
areas. C onversely, the Office of M anagem ent and Budget
has relied on BLS occupational projections to evaluate the
training plans of other agencies. A n d educational institu
tions and State agencies engaged in planning college-level
programs also use the data.
The national data are an input to State and area projec
tions. Such subnational estim ates are being used by gov
ernment bodies to plan vocational education and c e t a
training requirements. In fact, nearly all States currently
develop their ow n occupational projections based on a na
tional industry-occupation matrix.
BLS data are an integral part of other types of occupa
tional research conducted by private organizations, n on
profit organizations, universities, and governm ent agencies.
The ind ustry-occup ation m atrix provides the needed occu
pational projections for industry scenarios developed by
others. O rganizations which prepare vocational guidance
m aterials also rely upon BLS research underlying the O ccu
p a tio n a l O u tlo o k H a n d b o o k .
Private em ployers use the Bureau’s occupational projec
tions for a variety of planning functions, including the
construction of personnel policies which anticipate possible
labor shortages. A nd, producers of m achinery operated by
workers in specific occupations m ay find the in d u stry-oc
cupation m atrix a valuable tool for identifying potential
product markets.
INDIVIDUAL ELEMENTS of the projection s— labor
force, g n p , industry output and em ploym ent, and occupa
tional requirem ents— m ay also be integrated into a consis
tent analytical framework which makes possible use of the
entire system . A set of analyses recently prepared for the
N ational Science F oundation relied on this approach to de
term ine the im plications of increasing defense expenditures
and synthetic energy production for the supply of and de
m and for scientists and engineers. (See S c ien ce a n d E n g i
n eerin g E d u c a tio n f o r th e 1 9 8 0 's a n d B e y o n d (W ashington,
N ational Science F oundation and the U .S. D epartm ent of
Education, 1980)).
THE
11
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW August 1981 • Overview o f Economic Projections
1985, or slightly fewer than 2.7 million jobs a year.
In all alternatives, the rate of employment growth
slows in the latter half of the decade, to 1.4, 1.9, and
1.5 percent, respectively, for the low, high-trend I, and
high-trend II models. This reflects the projected slow
down in labor force growth after 1985.
Further im portant highlights:
•
•
•
•
•
State and local government employment is expected
to grow less rapidly than total employment, largely
as a result of contraction in public education.
As in the past, the “other services” sector is
expected to experience the fastest employment
growth. By 1990, “other service” industries will ac
count for over 22 percent of all jobs in the economy
in each of the three alternative scenarios. Leading
the advance among service industries will be health
care.
The largest number of new jobs projected for any
sector over the next decade will be in the trade sec
tor, primarily because of its initial large size. Be
tween 5 and 7.2 million new jobs are projected for
wholesale and retail establishments between 1979
and 1990.
Manufacturing jobs will grow by 0.8 percent a year
during 1979-90 in the low-trend version and 1.6 per
cent in high-trend I, slower than the rates projected
for total jobs but faster than recent growth in the
sector. The turnaround in the rate of manufacturing
job formation will be more pronounced for durable
goods manufacturing than for nondurables, reflect
ing assumptions of strong demand for consumer du
rables, defense hardware, and for producers’ durable
equipment, especially in the high-trend versions.
Five of the 10 industries with the greatest projected
rates of employment loss are in the nondurable man
ufacturing sector, reflecting either falling demand or
rapid productivity growth.
Output. Projections of final demand by industry were
multiplied by an input-output table to yield projections
of the domestic output needed for each industry to meet
that final demand. This analysis indicates:
•
•
•
Agricultural output will continue to decline in rela
tive importance throughout the next decade, reflect
ing slow growth in food purchases. This slowdown
will affect almost all of the food industries and indi
rectly, the agricultural industries.
Although the nondurable goods manufacturing sec
tor is expected to show only moderate overall
growth, several of its component industries should
experience faster-than-average output growth. These
include the chemical products, drugs, apparel, and
printing and publishing industries.
Among specific industries in the durable manufac
Digitized 12
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
•
•
turing sector likely to enjoy substantial output
growth are computers; optical equipment; construc
tion, mihing, and oilfield machinery; typewriters and
other office machines; electronic components; materi
al handling equipment; photographic equipment; and
medical and dental instruments.
Historically, the services sector has been increasing
its share of total private output, but during the
1980’s, its growth should approach that of the pri
vate economy as a whole, keeping its share constant.
Output of the mining sector is expected to halt its
historical decline as a share of the total private econ
omy, as the expected rapid increase in coal produc
tion outweighs minimal output growth in crude oil
production and absolute declines in copper mining
and nonferrous ores mining.
Occupational data
The more important occupational trends:
•
•
•
•
•
•
The shares of total employment accounted for by
white-collar jobs and blue-collar jobs do not change
substantially over the projected period under any of
the alternative projections. The white-collar share in
creases from 49.8 percent in 1978 to between 50.6
and 50.9 percent by 1990, and the blue-collar share
changes from 31.8 percent in 1978 to between 32
and 31.5 percent in 1990.
Service occupations continue to be the fastest grow
ing major occupational category and should account
for almost 16 percent of all jobs in 1990.
Job growth in blue-collar occupations is affected rel
atively more by differences among the three alterna
tive scenarios than growth in other occupational
categories. Blue-collar occupations are sensitive to
high-trend I assumptions because they are concen
trated in manufacturing industries, and the demand
for manufactured goods is relatively greater in this
version of the economy. Demand for manufactured
goods is also greater in the high-trend II scenario,
but the need for additional blue-collar workers is
moderated by assumed higher productivity gains.
Over the past two decades, the professional and
technical category has been one of the fastest grow
ing occupational groups. Although employment is
projected to continue to increase faster than employ
ment in all occupations in each of the alternative
scenarios, the differential rate of growth is narrowed.
Employment of managers and administrators is pro
jected to grow somewhat more slowly than overall
employment during 1978-90 in each scenario.
Employment of clerical workers is projected to grow
faster than the average rate of employment growth
in each of the alternative versions. Only the number
of service workers is expected to grow faster.
•
Employment in the craft and kindred worker group
increases at about the average rate for all occupa
tions in each of the scenarios. Most of this growth is
expected before 1985.
Impact of assumptions
A review of the sensitivity of the projections to
changes in the assumptions revealed that changes, espe
cially in tax policy, showed the largest impact on the
producer durable demand component of GNP, the dura
ble goods manufacturing industries, and a group of
blue-collar occupations principally found in the durable
manufacturing industries. The results here are very con
sistent throughout the durable goods sector. However,
it would clearly not be warranted from these results to
assume that the same sector, industries, and occupa
tions would be heavily impacted by changes in other
sets of assumptions. The expectation would be that
these changes would be felt by differing combinations of
industries and occupations.
Evaluation of past projections
A regular part of the BLS program is the evaluation
of projections when the target year has been reached.
These reviews provide the BLS projections staff with in
sights into the causes of differences between projected
and actual values, such as unwarranted assumptions, er
rors in historical data, or methodological problems.
They also give users an idea of the uncertainties at
tached to any projections. A brief discussion of the re
sults of these evaluations follows:
Labor force. All of the projections made by BLS in the
1952-70 period underestimated the actual labor force
(age 14 and over) in 1975.4 All projections also
underestimated the actual 1970 labor force, although
the 1956 and 1959 estimates were close. For the target
years of 1960 and 1965, however, BLS was reasonably
accurate, and the misses fell both below and above the
true levels.
As in previous years, the labor force projections
made in 1973 were based on the extrapolation of past
trends in work force participation. The 1973 projection
called for a civilian labor force (age 16 and over) of
99.8 million in 1980 and 110.6 million in 1990. By
1975, however, it was evident that underestimates could
again be expected. The participation rate of women was
projected to be 45.5 percent in 1990, but by 1975 the
rate had already hit 46.3 percent, and in 1976 it reached
47.3 percent. The rate of men also was predicted to
change very little. By 1980, it was expected to be 78.7
percent and in both 1985 and 1990, 79.1 percent. But
by 1976, the male civilian labor force participation rate
had already dropped to 77.5 percent.
BLS revised these projections in 1976. Although the
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general principle of extrapolating long-term trends in
work activity was retained, the methodology was modi
fied to reduce the amount of tapering5 applied to the
projected labor force rates. This had the effect of raising
the projected rates for women and lowering those for
men. The combined effect was an increase in the overall
projection for 1980 of 2 million workers— 2.6 million
more women and 600,000 fewer men than computed in
1973.
Economic and industry trends. In the mid-1960’s, the
Bureau first published projections of gross national
product, output by industry, and industry employment
for the year 1970.6The basic model assumed a full em
ployment economy with only 4 percent unemployment.
Other assumptions were that the Vietnam war would
have ended and that a housing boom would be under
way. Total GNP was calculated from estimates of labor
force growth, hours of work, and labor productivity.
The projections of GNP and employment were within
4 percent of the actual levels for 1970. However, errors
in the distribution of final demand, output for 81 indus
tries, and employment for 74 industries fell within a
broader range, with most of the larger discrepancies oc
curring in the smaller sectors. The absolute difference
between actual and projected employment for each of
74 different industries averaged 76,800 jobs, or 10.3 per
cent, but the Bureau correctly anticipated the direction
of change in 63 of the industries. And, when the errors
were weighted by employment in each industry, the av
erage absolute difference dropped to 8.1 percent.
The largest source of error in the industry employ
ment data proved to be estimates of employment-output
ratios or productivity by industry. Second in impor
tance were inaccuracies in the projections of input-out
put coefficients, while final demand estimates contri
buted the least to industry employment errors.
For many of the variables used in the BLS
methodology, it is difficult to draw a distinction be
tween those “projected” and those “assumed.” No wellspecified model (except the Houthakker-Taylor model
for the distribution of personal consumption expendi
tures) was used for the 1970 projections, and variables
were in general projected from extrapolation of past
trends modified to account for expected changes.
Events of 1970 negated the basic assumption of a full
employment economy. The onset of recession brought
the average unemployment rate to 5.1 percent, com
pared with less than 4 percent during the preceding 4
years. Moreover, military involvement in Vietnam had
not ended, and the housing boom did not materialize
until 1971-72. The 1970 downturn undoubtedly distort
ed the projections in the aggregate as well as at the in
dustry level.
One of the conclusions drawn from the 1970
13
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW August 1981 • Overview o f Economic Projections
evaluation was that, because the BLS projections are for
the medium term and do not take account of cyclical
fluctuations, it might be more useful to specify ranges
for future output and employment. This is particularly
true for those industries most susceptible to fluctuations,
such as some durable goods industries or construction.
Another recommendation arising from this review
was to prepare more alternative scenarios, varying the
assumptions for each case. Particularly, more accurate
projections may result from broadening the range of
values that key exogenous variables can assume. The
benefits of the review of the 1970 economic and employ
ment projections were such that the procedure became
a regular part of the projections program.
Projections for the 1975 economy, prepared in 1971,
were designed to reflect steady medium-term growth
and could not anticipate the sharp deviation from the
path brought on by the 1974-75 recession.7 Thus, the
high-productivity, full employment assumptions of the
1975 projections resulted in a large percentage error in
“supply gross national product” — the projected level of
economic resources. This error, in turn, biased the equa
tions of the econometric model used for simulating lev
els of demand and passed high estimates of final
demand through the projection process, ultimately
distorting projected levels of industry employment.
The 1975 evaluation of the projection methodology
also revealed weakness in the estimation of demand
components of G N P.8 Equations used to derive the in
vestment and import levels were found to be particular
ly poor, while those related to personal income,
personal consumption expeditures, and government pur
chases performed well. The final demand industry dis
tributions were quite inaccurate, due mainly to
Brief history of Bureau of Labor Statistics projections
In N ovem ber 1979, b l s projection work, previously
spread am ong three Bureau organizations, was brought to
gether under the um brella of the Office of Econom ic
G row th and Em ploym ent Projections. W hile previous
interoffice efforts had been coordinated, the organizational
change m ade possible an even closer integration of the pro
jection s for various aspects of the econom y. The projec
tions in this issue are the first developed after this
organizational change.
L a b o r fo rc e. Over the years, the Bureau has developed pro
jection s for each of the m ajor subsets of the current pro
jections. Labor force estim ates were first produced in 1959.
Since that time, seven sets of these projections have been
published.
I n d u s tr y o u tp u t a n d e m p lo y m e n t p rojection s. In 1963, the
Bureau began construction of a m edium -term econom ic
projections m odel. Incorporating the input-output tables
then being developed by the Bureau of E conom ic A n alysis
of the U .S. D epartm ent of Com m erce, this m odel was
designed to produce industry output and em ploym ent pro
jection s 5 to 15 years into the future. Since that time, the
bls
E conom ic G row th M odel has undergone several
changes in response to the need for m ore accurate and de
tailed data. Various versions of this m odel have been used
to develop a series of seven sets of projections.
The current version of the E conom ic G row th M odel is a
system of equations and identities linked at selected points
by various econom ic, econom etric, m athem atical, and pro
gram m ing techniques to sim ulate the U .S. econom y. Given
an explicit set of assum ed values for certain target vari
ables, this m odel generates industry output and em ploy
m ent projections. A key feature is the interlinking of inputoutput analysis w ith other econom etric techniques.
O c cu p a tio n a l ou tlo o k . This facet of the program originated
with a report of the A dvisory C om m ittee on Education
Digitized for
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appointed by President Franklin D . R oosevelt. In 1938,
the com m ittee recom m ended the establishm ent of an occu
pational outlook service within the Bureau of Labor Statis
tics to conduct em ploym ent studies and provide career
guidance inform ation for individuals and for vocational
counselors and planners. A ccordingly, the O ccupational
O utlook Service was organized under a specific authoriza
tion of the C ongress in 1941. Preliminary studies were be
gun that year, but it was not until after W orld War II that
the staff was able to focus on the publication of reports for
use in career guidance. In m id -1946, a manual of occupa
tional outlook inform ation was prepared for use in the V et
erans
A dm inistration
counseling
and
rehabilitation
program.
The first edition of the O c c u p a tio n a l O u tlo o k H a n d b o o k
was published in 1949 in response to a formal resolution
by the N ational V ocational G uidance A ssociation and the
requests of other groups and individuals that C ongress au
thorize the developm ent of career guidance inform ation for
sale. The public response was favorable to this first H a n d
book, and in 1951, the Bureau decided to issue a revised
and enlarged edition, with the backing of the Veterans A d
ministration.
A fter the end of hostilities in K orea, there was height
ened public recognition of the key role of vocational
guidance in channeling workers into essential occupations
and effectively using the N a tio n ’s labor resources. A s a re
sult, in 1955, C ongress provided continuing authorization
for regular publication of the O c cu p a tio n a l O u tlo o k H a n d
b o o k and related m aterials. In 1957, the third edition of
the H a n d b o o k was published and a com panion piece, the
O c cu p a tio n a l O u tlo o k Q u a rterly, was introduced to report
on new occupations and describe changes in the em ploy
m ent situation in established career fields. The 1982-83
H a n d b o o k , currently in preparation, will be the 15th edi
tion, and should be available in late spring of 1982. The
projections discussed in this issue of the R e v ie w will form
the basis for the new H a n d b o o k .
judgmental error. Projected industry outputs were dis
torted more by errors in the estimates of final demand
than by inaccuracies in the input-output table employed
in the projection process. However, industry productivi
ty factors also were wide of the mark, offsetting the de
mand error in such a way that relative accuracy in the
industry employment projections resulted.
Projections of the labor force and employment for
1975 fell within 4 percent of the realized levels. GNP
was overestimated by 15.4 percent. Errors for detailed
industry final demand, output, and employment fell
within a broader range, but, for the most part, the larg
er percentage errors occurred among the smaller sec
tors.
Employment was overestimated for three-quarters of
the industries studied, reflecting the severity of the 1975
recession. The largest percent errors were recorded for
the durable manufacturing and mining industries, while
the largest numerical errors occurred within the con
struction, trade, and service industries, the three largest
economic sectors. The absolute difference between actu
al and projected employment for each of the 71 indus
tries studied averaged 8 percent of total employment for
these industries.
Total employment for 1975 was overprojected by
about 3.5 percent, although discrepancies varied widely
by industry. The overprojection of GNP led to an over
estimate of industry outputs; together with the
misprojection of labor productivity, this resulted in the
overprojection of total employment.
At the industry level, the average absolute percentage
error in employment for 71 industries was 14.8 percent;
when weighted by industry employment shares, the av
erage dropped to 8 percent. This again indicates that
the larger percentage errors were in the smaller indus
tries. Estimates for more than 40 percent of the indus
tries, accounting for more than two-thirds of em
ployment, were within 10 percent of the actual values.
The largest single concentration of error was in the con
struction industry; personal and business services were a
close second. The third largest source of error was the
trade sector; although the discrepancy was small, it be
came im portant because of the large size of the sector.
The 1975 evaluation differed from the review of the
1970 projections, chiefly because the macro model was
not used in the 1970 study. In addition, the 1970 study
found productivity factors to be the most important in
explaining errors in projected employment, while the
1975 study found macro controls to be the major
source.
Occupational estimates. In 1967, the Division of Occupa
tional Outlook completed an industry-occupation ma
trix which described the relationship of employment in
162 occupations and 124 industries during 1960 and
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projected .these relationships to 1975.9 The primary
data sources for the project were the 1950 and 1960
censuses and, for industry employment, annual esti
mates from the BLS establishment surveys from 1947
onward.
A revision of the 1975 matrix based largely on addi
tional industry data was completed in 1969. Although
the revision was not published, it is a resource for the
occupational outlook program, and provides more his
torical data for evaluating projections. Due to a major
change in the occupational employment classification
system beginning with the 1970 census,-only 76 of the
162 detailed occupations were comparable over the
1960-75 period.
The unforeseen economic downturn of the mid-1970’s
reduced the accuracy of the occupational projections;
although the errors were not as great as initially sup
posed, the target year turned out to be the trough of
the recession, and the actual unemployment rate was
8.5 percent. Consequently, employment in cyclically
sensitive occupations, such as craft and operative occu
pations, generally was overprojected. Employment in
these two groups had been growing in line with project
ed trends through 1974, but turned down as economic
conditions worsened in 1975. Interestingly, underprojec
tions did occur in 3 of the 9 major occupational groups
despite the recession, and these errors might have been
somewhat higher if economic conditions in 1975 had
been as favorable as originally assumed.
The difference between projected and actual employ
ment for the major occupational groups ranged from a
6.7-percent underestimate for clerical workers to a
9.1-percent overestimate for operatives. The average of
the absolute percentage difference was 6.1 percent. The
projections for more detailed occupations were subject
to much larger error, averaging 20.8-percent off 1975
employment levels. Again, differences between projected
and actual employment tended to be smaller for the
larger worker groups.
Several projection methods that would have been
simpler than the matrix procedure were explored during
the 1975 review. Among these, the most successful was
linear extrapolation of employment trends for each oc
cupation. These extrapolations averaged an absolute
26.2 percent off actual 1975 employment in the 76 de
tailed occupations, compared with the 20.8-percent er
ror in the matrix projections.
The direction of employment change between 1960
and 1975 was correctly anticipated for all of the nine
major occupational groups, although employment in
five was overprojected. However, the evaluation of 1975
employment projections for detailed occupations was
hampered by the previously mentioned change in the
Census Bureau occupational classification system for the
1970 census. Beginning in late 1971, the revised system
15
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW August 1981 • Overview o f Economic Projections
was adopted for the Current Population Survey ( c p s ),
the primary source of occupational employment data
between decennial censuses. Largely as a result of this
classification change, projections for only 76 of the 162
occupations in the matrix were comparable with 1975
employment data estimated from the CPS. Differences
between projected and actual employment in the 76 de
tailed occupations ranged from a 43-percent understate
ment for personnel and labor relations workers to a 136percent overestimate for plasterers. The absolute per
centage errors for all 76 occupations averaged 20.8
percent. Two-thirds of the occupations, however, had
errors lower than the average.
As indicated earlier, this evaluation found projection
accuracy to be related to the size of employment in an
occupation. When weighted by employment in each oc
cupation, the average absolute error drops from 20.8
percent to 14 percent, indicating that projections for the
largest occupations generally were more accurate. Rela
tively close estimates for the four occupational catego
ries with more than 1 million workers each in 1975
contributed substantially to the final results. The fol
lowing tabulation shows how projection accuracy im
proved with the size of the worker group:
N u m b e r o f w o rk ers
in o ccu p a tio n s
Total .....................
Less than 50,000 ............
50,000 to 99,999 ............
100,000 to 299,999 . . . .
300,000 to 599,999 . . . .
600,000 and m ore . . . .
N um ber o f
occu p a tio n s
A vera g e a b so lu te
p e r c e n t e rro r
76
19
14
17
14
12
20.8
32.4
20.3
15.5
19.8
11.2
A major objective of the evaluation of the 1975
occupational projections was to isolate the effects of er
rors in the matrix elements that determine occupational
employment in the target year (projected employment
by industry) on projected occupational staffing patterns
for each industry (industry-occupation ratios).
Although the occupational projections were off the
mark for many reasons, including the economic down
turn, the 1975 review established that the ratio esti
mates were a far greater source of error in the
occupational projections than the estimates of industry
employment levels. In fact, a simulated matrix based on
actual 1975 industry employment levels and the esti
mated ratios produced occupational totals that were no
more accurate, on average, than the projections,
suggesting that the quality of the ratios was so poor as
to negate the effect of perfect industry employment pro
jections.
The ratio estimates were based on scanty data for
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
trends in the occupational structure of industries. Al
though the projections were made in the late 1960’s, the
only comprehensive sources of historical data on ratios
were the 1950 and 1960 decennial censuses. A long-rec
ognized need for current, detailed data on industry staf
fing patterns prompted the initiation of the cooperative
Federal-State program, Occupational Employment Sta
tistics, in 1970.
Continuing analysis of the accuracy of projections is
an important activity in improving their reliability.
Thus, evaluation of previous projections has become a
regular part of the BLS program. Complete employment
data soon will be available for comparison with the
1980 industry and occupational projections, and an
evaluation of the complete set of 1980 projections is
currently planned.
The Bureau’s policy of updating the medium-term
scenarios every 2 years also contributes to accuracy.
The three articles which follow reflect such an update of
the 1990 GNP, industry output and employment, and
occupational projections developed in 1978-79.
p r e p a r a t i o n o f e c o n o m i c p r o j e c t i o n s is, to a
degree, both a science and an art. Thus, misunderstand
ings may arise between the users, who feel the need for
exact numbers, and producers, who recognize their in
ability to predict with such precision. Such con
flicts are all the more likely because projections analysts
generally employ a framework which develops numeri
cal answers to specific questions, and users are inevita
bly tempted to attribute to those numbers an exactness
they should not be accorded. The Bureau attempts to
address this dilemma, in at least a small way, by mak
ing clear all of the im portant assumptions underlying its
projections, by developing alternative versions which re
flect at least some of the uncertainties about the future,
by evaluating past projections to assist users in appreci
ating the unpredictable nature of certain future events,
and by updating the projections on a regular 2-year cy
cle.
Even so, the Bureau is aware that many uses of the
projections (see box) require quantitative estimates. It is
incumbent on users to realize that differing assumptions
can change the results, that underlying data and meth
ods can cause errors, and that estimates should be care
fully reviewed to take into account subsequent
developments which could not be anticipated at the
time the projections were prepared.
A final comment, from Edgar R. Fiedler, on projec
tions, their uncertainties, and their uses: “give them a
number or give them a date, but never both.” 10
□
T he
FOOTNOTES
' The labor force projections were published earlier. See Howard N
Fullerton, Jr., “The 1995 labor force: a first look,” Monthly Labor Re
view, December 1980, pp. 11-21.
2See Fullerton, “The 1995 labor force.”
' The employment total used in this and the subsequent articles
consists of wage and salary workers, self-employed, and unpaid family
workers.
4 See Paul M. Ryscavage, “BLS labor force projections: a review of
methods and results,” Monthly Labor Review, April 1979, pp. 15-22.
5Tapering refers to the assumptions and formulations used to move
from the most recent rate of change in labor force participation for a
given age-sex group to a zero rate of change several decades in the fu
ture.
6 Valerie A. Personick and Robert A. Sylvester, “Evaluation of BLS
1970 economic and employment projections,” Monthly Labor Review,
August 1976, pp. 13-16.
Projections o f the Post-Vietnam Economy, 1975, Bulletin 1733 (Bu
reau of Labor Statistics, 1972).
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
8Paul T. Christy and Karen J. Horowitz, “An evaluation of BLS
projections of 1975 output and employment,” Monthly Labor Review,
August 1979, pp. 8-19.
9Evaluations of earlier occupational projections are described in
Sol Swerdloff, “How good were manpower projections for the
1960’s,” Monthly Labor Review, November 1969, pp. 17-22. The arti
cle referenced here is Max L. Carey, “Evaluating the 1975 projections
of occupational employment,” Monthly Labor Review, June 1980, pp.
10- 21.
The Bureau’s occupational projections for 1975 were first published
in Occupational Employment Patterns for 1960 and 1975, Bulletin 1599
(Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1968). The projections also were present
ed in a corollary report, Tomorrow's Manpower Needs, Volume IV,
Bulletin 1606 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1969). The projections eval
uated in this article were obtained from the latter publication. There
are minor differences in estimates presented in the two publications.
10Edgar R. Fiedler, “The Three R’s of Economic Forecasting— Ir
rational, Irrelevant, and Irreverent,” Across the Board, June 1977, pp.
62-63.
Translating projections into action
In some respects the appraisal of forecasts puts a greater burden on
the policymaker than the original task of forecasting itself. The accu
racy of current forecasts is, of course, yet to be determined. Evalua
tion of the methodology of various forecasts may require technical
sophistication at least as great as, and perhaps greater than, that of
the specialist in forecasting. Yet the policymaker is rarely a specialist
in forecasting techniques, nor is he often an authority on the phenom
ena being projected. Moreover, for the frequent case in which numer
ous forecasts of the same trend are available, the selection of a “most
likely” forecast is in itself an act of forecasting, since the policymaker
chooses the forecast which reflects assumptions and methods that ap
pear most reasonable to him. The policymaker thus tacitly chooses a
set of assumptions about the future and methodology for projecting
the essence of those assumptions.
------------W
il l ia m
A
sch er
Forecasting: An appraisal for
Policy-Makers and Planners
(Baltimore, Md., The Johns Hopkins
University Press, 1978), pp. 1-2.
17
The U. S. economy
through 1990—an update
Revised BLS projections of growth indicate a shift
from government spending to private investment;
the three alternative projections assume a broad range
of values for productivity, inflation, and fiscal policy
N
orman
C. Sa u n d e r s
In what ways might the U.S. economy expand during
the 1980’s?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has prepared three
trend projections of growth for the 1980-90 period,
updating the two prior scenarios published in 1978 and
adding a projection of major change in Federal fiscal
policies.1 The low-trend projection is characterized by
assumptions of continuing high inflation, low productiv
ity growth, and moderate expansion in real production.
Alternatively, the high-trend version-I projection as
sumes marked improvements in both inflation and pro
ductivity, greater labor force growth, and commensurately higher real production levels. Finally, the new
high-trend, version-II alternative assumes labor force
growth consistent with the low-trend, but greater pro
ductivity gains and less inflation than in the version-I
high-trend. None of the alternatives represents an at
tempt to forecast possible cyclical fluctuations during
the 1980’s. The three projections are intended to pro
vide a range within which economic growth will most
likely occur; however, they should not be interpreted as
being representative of all likelihoods. Hereafter, the
three scenarios will be referred to as the low-trend, the
high-I, and the high-II alternatives.
By 1990, real gross national product ( g n p ) is
expected to range between $1.9 and $2.2 trillion, with
civilian employment between 120 and 129 million jobs.
In all three versions, annual rates of growth in employ
ment begin to slow in the 1980’s but are more than off
set by assumed improvements in productivity. Follow
ing are projected growth rates for GNP, disposable
income, and employment during 1980-85 and 1985-90:
Norman C. Saunders is an economist in the Office of Economic
Growth and Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
18
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
1980-85
Low
G ross national
product . . .
Real disposable
incom e . . .
Em ploym ent .
1985-90
H igh-I H igh-II
L ow
H igh-I H igh-II
2.2
3.8
3.7
2.8
4.0
4.1
1.9
1.5
3.8
2.4
3.7
1.7
2.5
1.4
4.3
1.9
4.6
1.5
In terms of the real rate of growth, the low-trend pro
jections are comparable to the 1973-80 period when
real G N P increased at an average rate of 2.4 percent
and real disposable income grew by 2.5 percent each
year. Conversely, the two high-trend projections corre
spond more with the 1955-68 period, when GNP grew
at an average annual rate of 3.7 percent, while real dis
posable income was up annually by 3.8 percent.
Major assumptions
Underlying the projections are five major groups of
assumptions— fiscal, demographic, productivity, unem
ployment, and prices.2 Other assumptions such as capi
tal discard rates, short- and medium-term interest rates,
and m otor fuel usage are not discussed here. However,
the impact of the latter is limited to relatively small seg
ments of the projections. An exception is the energy
area, but because of limitations in the current BLS
model, neither energy prices nor the availability of
imported oil play a direct role in the aggregate projec
tions. At the industry level, the consumption of energy
by type and source is generally consistent with the me
dium-price projections of the Department of Energy,
which are discussed elsewhere in this issue.3
Fiscal. It is assumed that personal tax payments will be
affected in 1981 by a Federal income tax cut ranging
from $12 billion in the low-trend projection to $23 bil-
lion in the high-I version. In addition, Federal taxes as
a proportion of personal income are assumed to decline
throughout the decade. During the 1973-80 period, per
sonal taxes accounted for an average of 11.1 percent of
personal income, reaching 12.0 percent in 1980. In
1990, the effective rate declines to 10.6 percent in the
low-trend projection, and to 8.9 percent in the version I
high-trend. After 1981, neither scenario anticipates tax
cuts in specific years. Rather, tax revenues are affected
smoothly over the entire period by assuming rate reduc
tions in each year. In the high-II version, however, Fed
eral personal effective tax rates are cut 5.0 percent in
1981, 10.0 percent each year in 1982 and 1983, and, fi
nally, by 5.0 percent in 1984. This results in an effective
rate of 8.8 percent in 1984. The rate is maintained at
this level for the remainder of the decade.
The effective tax rate on corporate profits averaged
approximately 35.0 percent during the 1970’s. In the
low-trend model, corporate tax policy has been set to
lower this effective rate to 32.0 percent'by 1990, with
most of the decline occurring in the latter half of the
decade. In contrast, both high-trend projections reach
an effective rate of approximately 28.0 percent by 1990,
with the largest declines occurring early in the decade.
The declining share of profits allocated to taxes results
from tax cuts as well as from an increase in investment
tax credits and more rapid depreciation rates. The ma
jor difference between the high trends and the low trend
lies more in the timing of the tax cuts than in the mag
nitude.
Indirect business taxes are maintained, in all three
projections, at a relatively constant share of national in
come, moving primarily with the inflation rate.
Social insurance contributions are determined primar
ily by the taxable wage base and by the combined
employer-employee tax rate. In the low-trend alterna
tive, it is assumed that the provisions of the Social Se
curity Act of 1977 will be maintained throughout the
decade. This legislation increases the wage base for so
cial security contributions from $21,900 in 1979 to
$60,300 in 1990, accompanied by an increase in the
OASDHI tax rate to 15.3 percent by 1990. Under these
assumptions, social insurance contributions account for
a constant proportion of national income throughout
the decade.
Under the act, a 1.0-percentage-point increase in the
combined employer-employee tax rate is mandated for
1990 over 1989. The resultant jump in social insurance
contributions leads to a projected Federal Government
surplus of $76 billion. Had the tax rate increase not
been specified for 1990, the surplus would have been
about $30 to $35 billion in the low-growth alternative.
In the high-I alternative, it is assumed that, after
1981, the Social Security Act will be amended. The
wage base in this alternative is assumed to reach
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$56,100 in 1990, with a combined tax rate of 14.3 per
cent. This leads to social insurance contributions ac
counting for 10.6 percent of national income over the
first years of the decade. Thereafter, contributions
decline in share terms, accounting for 10.1 percent of
national income by 1990.
In the high-II model, the wage base reaches $54,900
in 1990, with a combined tax rate of 13.4 percent (that
is, no change in the rate is assumed over the entire de
cade). In this scenario, Federal social insurance contri
butions account for 9.4 percent of national income by
1990.
To summarize the tax assumptions, Federal receipts
are expected to account for somewhat more than 21.0
percent of GNP during the first years of the 1980’s in the
low-trend projection and decline moderately to about
20.0 percent by 1990. The high-I alternative is charac
terized by revenues accounting for 19.5 percent of GNP
in 1985 and 18.1 percent by 1990. Finally, in the highII model, revenues drop to 18.5 and 17.9 percent of
GNP in 1985 and 1990, respectively.
The assumed goal for Federal expenditures in the
three alternatives is to lower expenditures as a propor
tion of GNP throughout the decade. In the low-trend
version, Federal purchases of goods and services, ex
cluding employee compensation, are assumed to grow at
a real rate of 5.5 percent a year between 1980 and 1985
and at 2.5 percent between 1985 and 1990. In both
high-trend versions, purchases less compensation in
crease at a real rate of approximately 5.0 percent in the
first half of the decade, slowing to a 2.5-percent average
growth during the 1985-90 period. In all alternatives, it
has been assumed that real defense expenditures in
crease by 4.0 to 5.0 percent each year during 1980-85
and by 2.0 to 3.0 percent during 1985-90.
The three alternatives assume that military forces
reach 2.129 million by 1985 and remain at that level for
the remainder of the decade. This level is approximately
27.000 more than in 1980. (The implication is that all
real increases in defense spending are aimed at provid
ing more materiel, rather than more personnel.) Federal
civilian employment is assumed to increase by approxi
mately .7 percent, or 13,000 jobs, each year between
1980 and 1990 in the low-and high-I alternatives. In the
high-II alternative, rather sharp cuts in Federal civilian
employment are assumed for the early 1980’s, leaving
employment at 2.08 million employees in the 1985-90
period. This is a cut of approximately 100,000 jobs
from 1980 levels.
Federal transfer payments are comprised of: (1) un
employment insurance benefits; (2) social security; (3)
Federal civilian employee retirement; (4) military retire
ment; (5) hospital and supplementary medical insur
ance; (6) supplemental security income; and (7) all other
Federal benefit programs. Projections for each category
19
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW August 1981 • Economic Projections Through 1990
are prepared using the expected rate of inflation, esti
mated changes in recipient population, and a discretion
ary change which represents real changes in offered
benefits. Real average benefit payments decline by about
—.3 percent during 1980-90 in the low-trend scenario.
In contrast, the high-I projection assumes virtually no
real growth in average transfer payments in the early
half of the decade but a relatively strong real growth of
about 1.5 percent a year during 1985-90. This is based
on the assumption that the stronger growth in real in
comes in this alternative will renew interest in expan
sion of social welfare programs. The high-II version is
characterized by sharp cuts in real average benefits of
about 4.0 percent a year during the 1981-84 period,
with very little real growth in average benefits after 1984.
Real grants-in-aid to State and local governments are
assumed to decline over the decade in all projections.
This assumption reflects declining expenditures of the
highway trust fund and a phasing out of general reve
nue-sharing programs. From 1980 to 1990, real grants
are assumed to decline by 1.9 percent a year in the lowtrend alternative and by 0.9 percent in the two hightrend alternatives. Net interest payments and subsidies
to government enterprises are essentially unchanged in
real terms throughout the projection period. The effects
of these assumptions on the national income accounts
measures of Federal receipts and expenditures are
shown in table 1.
Demographic assumptions. The primary determinants of
the demographic data are the level and the age and sex
distribution of the population. Three projected popula
tion series were developed by the Bureau of the Census,
differing primarily in the assumed fertility rate. The Series-II population projections were used in the economic
projections, as were the associated Series-B household
projections.4 The BLS middle-growth labor force projec
tion is used in the low-trend and high-II versions, and
the high-growth labor force projection is used in the
high-I projection.5
Unemployment and productivity. The unemployment rate
is viewed as a policy objective. Projected unemploy
Table 1. Federal Government receipts and expenditures,
1980, and projected to 1985, and 1990, on a National
Income Accounts basis
[Current dollars in billions]
Receipts
Percent
of GNP
Expendi
tures
Percent
of GNP
Surplus or
deficit
538.9
978.8
921.1
825.5
1,594.4
1,431.3
1,234.5
20.5
21.1
19.5
18.5
19.9
18.1
17.9
601.2
982.7
916.0
817.9
1,518.4
1,409.3
1,186.7
22.9
21.2
19.4
18.3
19.0
17.9
17.2
-62.3
-3 .9
5.1
7.6
76.0
21.9
47.8
1980 ....................................
1985 L o w .............................
High I ...........................
High-II ........................
1990 L o w .............................
H igh-I...........................
High-II ........................
Digitized for
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
ment rates represent possible recovery paths from the
1980 economic slowdown, and, then, long-run targets
approaching full-employment. Following are the as
sumed unemployment rates, 1981-90:
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
.....................
.....................
.....................
.....................
.....................
.....................
.....................
.....................
.....................
.....................
...............
...............
...............
...............
...............
...............
...............
...............
...............
...............
Low
H ig h -I
8.1
7.7
7.4
7.2
7.0
6.8
6.6
6.4
6.2
6.0
8.1
7.6
7.0
6.3
5.5
5.1
4.8
4.5
4.2
4.0
H ig h -I I
•
7.8
7.2
6.6
6.4
6.0
5.6
5.3
5.0
4.7
4.5
Some of the post-1985 declines can be ascribed to the
changing age structure of the labor force. However, con
tinuing real declines are assumed for the entire 1981—
90 period in the projections.
For the private nonfarm sector, the long-term average
annual rate of productivity growth was 2.6 percent be
tween 1955 and 1968. Between 1968 and 1973, this rate
dropped to 2.1 percent annually and even further to .7
percent during the 1973-80 period. The slowdown in
productivity growth over the last years has been attrib
uted to many factors, including the influx of new work
ers into the labor force; slowing in capital accumulation
per worker; an emphasis on nonproductive types of in
vestment, such as pollution control investment; and the
remarkable increase in energy prices since 1973.
Quite different assumptions are made about possible
paths of productivity growth in the alternatives. The
low-trend projection assumes a continuation of slow
growth in nonfarm productivity— .9 percent real
growth each year between 1980 and 1985, and 1.8 per
cent between 1985 and 1990. In contrast, the high-I
projection assumes productivity growth of 1.4 percent
each year during 1980-85 and 2.5 percent for 1985-90.
The most optimistic assumptions appear in the high-II
version, with nonfarm output per hour increasing at a
2.2-percent rate each year between 1980-85 and at a
3.0-percent rate during the latter portion of the decade.
Some of the factors which contributed to the produc
tivity slowdown in the 1970’s are expected to improve
in the coming decade. Members of the postwar baby
boom will become more experienced and productive
during the 1980’s. The rapid rate of growth in expendi
tures for environmental and energy conservation equip
ment should slow somewhat during the first half of the
decade, and a slower rate of growth in energy prices
coupled with smaller increases in the demand for energy
is expected to have an impact. Finally, policies which
increase investment incentives should have an impact
later in the decade. However, some argue that techno
logical breakthrough cannot continue at the rate it did
during the 1970’s. Others argue that poor productivity
performance will continue.6 Because these factors are
difficult to quantify in terms of their impact on future
productivity changes, the range of possible productivity
growth has purposefully been kept broad.
Prices. The final major assumption deals with the infla
tion rate. The key item is the implicit deflator for
private GNP. Long-term movements of this deflator,
compared with movements in the Consumer Price Index
for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, are as
follows:
P riva te GNP
d e fla to r
1955-68
1968-73
1 973-80
......................................................
......................................................
......................................................
2.1
4.6
7.8
CPI
2.0
5.0
9.2
A relatively pessimistic view of inflation possibilities is
taken in the low-trend alternative. The private GNP de
flator is assumed to increase at a 9.2-percent growth
rate in the 1980-85 period and at an 8.3-percent rate
during 1985-90. The high-I version assumes that infla
tion will moderate over the longer run. The 1980-85
rate of inflation is set at 7.9 percent; it drops to 6.4 per
cent over the latter half of the projection period. The
greatest improvement in inflation is assumed to occur in
the high-II projection as the rate of growth of the pri
vate GNP deflator drops to 7.0 percent in the 1980-85
period, followed by a further decline to a 4.7-percent
rate between 1985 and 1990.
Prices do not directly affect the determination of real
GNP in the BLS model, but they do enter into the projec
tions in several important ways. First, wages and inter
est rates are greatly influenced by inflation. These, in
turn, affect consumption expenditures and residential in
vestment. Second, prices have an impact on the Federal
budget. They enter implicitly into the determination of
various expenditure levels and, on the revenue side, they
affect personal income taxes because of the progressive
tax structure. The future movement of prices is quite
uncertain. The price assumptions used in these projec
tions are a judgment as to the relative strengths of the
various factors which affect price determination, as well
as an attempt (as with the productivity assumption) to
define a relatively broad band around probable future
price change. The linkage of higher productivity growth
and lower rates of inflation is, to some extent, an arbi
trary decision in that other combinations of assump
tions could logically be justified as well.
Aggregate demand
Gross national product consists of personal consump
tion expenditures, gross private domestic investment,
net foreign trade, and government purchases of goods
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and services. Total GNP and its various components are
presented in table 2 in constant 1972 prices for selected
years from 1955 to 1990. Between 1980 and 1985, lowtrend GNP is projected to increase at an average rate of
2.2 percent each year, roughly the same rate prevalent
in the 1973-80 period, but below the long-term rate of
3.3 percent between 1955 and 1980. In the high-I and
high-II versions, GNP is projected to increase by 3.8 and
3.7 percent, respectively, during 1980-85, well above
the long-term rate.
After 1985, the growth potential continues to im
prove as better productivity performance more than off
sets slower labor force growth. Low-trend GNP growth
increases to a 2.8-percent average rate and the hightrend versions to approximately a 4.0-percent rate over
the last years of the decade.
Although all components of GNP are projected to
grow more rapidly in the high-trend versions, the major
difference between these two alternatives and the lowtrend version is in investment. The timing of business
tax incentives for investment in the low-trend model is
such that little impact is noticed on plant and equip
ment investment before the middle of the decade. In the
high-trend versions, plant and equipment expenditures
are projected to grow strongly over the entire projec
tion horizon. The other components of demand are also
projected to exceed long-term trend rates of growth in
the high-trend versions and to lag behind these histori
cal patterns in the low-trend model.
Consumption. Personal consumption expenditures have
traditionally accounted for the largest share of final pro
duction. In 1955, personal consumption made up about
60.0 percent of real GNP and has steadily increased its
share to over 63.0 percent in 1980. This trend is pro
jected to end, at least temporarily, in the three projec
tions as the greater emphasis on capital formation
becomes apparent. By 1990, total personal consumption
expenditures are expected to account for 61.3 percent of
GNP in the low-trend projection, 62.0 percent in the
high-I version, and 62.8 percent in high-II.
The long-term trend toward relatively more expendi
tures on durables and services and relatively fewer pur
chases of nondurable goods is projected to continue in
all three alternatives. In 1955, 13.0 percent of real per
sonal consumption expenditures was accounted for by
durable goods purchases, which include autos and
parts, furniture and appliances, and recreational items,
such as radios, televisions, and sporting goods; by 1980,
durables accounted for just under 14.5 percent. Pur
chases of durable goods are projected to increase 3.4
percent a year between 1980 and 1985 in the low-trend
projection and by about 6.3 percent a year in both
high-trend versions. After 1985, such purchases will ac
celerate to 3.7 percent each year in the low-trend ver21
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW August 1981 • Economic Projections Through 1990
sion, and will slow to 5.4 and 5.7 percent, respectively,
in high-I and high-II versions. Durables purchases in all
projections are expected to rebound sharply from the
1980 slowdown, increasing their share of total con
sumption to about 16.0 percent in 1990 in the low-trend
version, and to just under 17.0 percent in the high-trend
alternatives.
As with durables, consumers have allocated an in
creasing proportion of their incomes to purchases of
services over the post-World War II period. In 1955,
services accounted for 40.0 percent of consumption, but
by 1980 had reached 47.2 percent. This trend is
expected to continue, as services purchases attain be
Table 2.
tween 48.0 and 49.0 percent of personal consumption
expenditures in 1990 in the three alternatives.
As families’ real incomes increase, expenditures for ne
cessities such as food, basic clothing, and shelter tend
to reach saturation levels. Further real income growth
yields greater amounts of discretionary income for pur
chasing luxuries. This is one of the reasons for the in
creases in durable and service purchases relative to
nondurable expenditures. Nondurable purchases ac
counted for 47.0 percent of consumer spending in 1955,
dipping to 38.3 percent by 1980.
Investment. Gross private domestic investment consists
Gross national product by major component, 1955, 1968, 1973, 1980, and projected to 1985 and 1990
[1972 dollars In billions]
Actual
Projected
Component
1985
1955
Gross national product ................................................................
Personal consumption expenditures..........................................................
Gross private domestic investment ..........................................................
Non residential structures .....................................................................
Producers’ durable equipment..............................................................
Residential investment .........................................................................
Change In business Inventories............................................................
Net exports................................................................................................
E xp orts..................................................................................................
Imports ..................................................................................................
Government purchases ............................................................................
Federal ..................................................................................................
Defense.............................................................................................
Nondefense.......................................................................................
State and local ....................................................................................
657.5
394.1
103.8
25.4
35.9
34.8
7.7
7.3
30.7
23.4
152.3
88.2
n
n
64.1
1968
1973
1,058.1
634.4
161.6
42.8
66.8
43.1
9.0
1.9
61.2
59.3
260.2
128.1
( 1)
( 1)
132.1
1,255.0
768.5
217.5
47.4
90.7
62.3
17.2
15.5
97.3
81.8
253.5
95.9
68.3
27.6
157.6
1980
1,480.7
935.1
203.7
48.4
110.0
48.2
-3 .0
52.0
161.1
109.1
290.0
108.2
70.9
37.2
181.9
1980
Low
High-I
High-II
Low
High-I
High-II
1,653.3
1,001.0
263.6
46.4
135.3
67.6
14.3
60.8
202.0
141.2
327.9
128.9
93.4
35.5
199.0
1,784.7
1,094.5
310.1
49.3
163.5
78.5
18.8
55.6
209.7
154.1
324.7
126.6
91.6
35.0
198.1
1,775.1
1,091.3
309.7
49.2
164.8
77.0
18.7
49.0
203.4
154.4
324.9
125.9
93.7
32.2
199.0
1,902.4
1,166.5
315.8
55.5
172.6
70.9
16.8
73.4
246.2
172.8
346.9
140.3
103.3
37.0
206.6
2,172.6
1,346.0
420.2
62.4
240.9
92.1
24.8
62.2
270.3
208.1
344.4
135.3
98.8
36.5
209.1
2,171.8
1,364.0
422.6
62.8
243.5
91.6
24.7
37.7
249.1
211.4
347.6
137.5
104.1
33.4
210.1
100.0
61.5
17.4
2.8
9.3
4.3
1.1
2.8
11.5
-8.7
18.3
7.1
5.3
1.8
11.2
100.0
61.3
16.6
2.9
9.1
3.7
.9
3.9
12.9
-9.1
18.2
7.4
5.4
1.9
10.9
100.0
62.0
19.3
2.9
11.1
4.2
1.1
2.9
12.4
-9 .6
15.9
6.2
4.5
1.7
9.6
100.0
62.8
19.5
2.9
11.2
4.2
1.1
1.7
11.5
-9 .7
16.0
6.3
4.8
1.5
9.7
Percent distribution
Gross national product .................................................................
Personal consumption expenditures..........................................................
Gross private domestic investment ..........................................................
Nonresldential structures .....................................................................
Producers' durable equipment..............................................................
Residential investment .........................................................................
Change in business Inventories ............................................................
Net exports................................................................................................
E xp orts..................................................................................................
Im ports...................................................................................................
Government purchases ............................................................................
Federal .............................................................................................
Defense.............................................................................................
Nondefense.......................................................................................
State and local .....................................................................................
100.0
59.9
15.8
3.9
5.5
5.3
1.2
1.1
4.7
-3 .6
23.2
13.4
(’ )
(’ )
9.7
100.0
60.0
15.3
4.0
6.3
4.1
.9
.2
5.8
-5 .6
24.6
12.1
n
( 1)
12.5
100.0
61.2
17.3
3.8
7.2
5.0
1.4
1.2
7.8
-6.5
20.2
7.6
5.4
2.2
12.6
100.0
63.2
13.8
3.3
7.4
3.3
-.2
3.5
10.9
-7.4
19.6
7.3
4.8
2.5
12.3
100.0
60.5
15.9
2.8
8.2
4.1
.9
3.7
12.2
-8.5
19.8
7.8
5.6
2.1
12.0
100.0
61.3
17.4
2.8
9.2
4.4
1.1
3.1
11.7
-8 .6
18.2
7.1
5.1
2.0
11.1
Average annual rate of change
Gross national product .................................................................
Personal consumption expenditures..........................................................
Gross private domestic investment ..........................................................
Nonresidential structures .....................................................................
Producers' durable equipment..............................................................
Residential Investment .......................................................................
Change in business Inventories ............................................................
Net expo rts................................................................................................
E xp orts..................................................................................................
Imports ................................................................................................
Government purchases ............................................................................
Federal ..................................................................................................
Defense..................................................................................
Nondefense.......................................................................................
State and local .....................................................................................
’ Not available.
2Not computable.
Digitized for
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
1955-68
1968 73
1973-80
3.7
3.7
3.5
4.1
4.9
1.7
1.2
-9.8
5.5
7.4
4.2
2.9
( 1)
n
5.7
3.5
3.9
6.1
2.1
6.3
7.6
13.8
52.2
9.7
6.6
.5
-5 .6
( )
)
3.6
2.4
2.8
-.9
.3
2.8
-3 .6
( 2)
18.9
7.5
4.2
1.9
1.7
.5
4.4
2.1
1980-85
2.2
1.4
5.3
-.8
4.2
7.0
( 2)
3.2
4.6
5.3
2.5
3.6
5.7
- .9
1.8
3.8
3.2
8.8
.4
8.2
10.2
( 2)
1.3
5.4
7.2
2.3
3.2
5.3
-1 .2
1.7
1985-90
3.7
3.1
8.7
.3
8.4
9.8
( 2)
-1.2
4.8
7.2
2.3
3.1
5.7
-2.8
1.8
2.8
3.1
3.7
3.6
5.0
1.0
3.3
3.8
4.0
4.1
1.1
1.7
2.0
.8
.8
4.0
4.2
6.3
4.8
8.1
3.2
5.7
2.3
5.2
6.2
1.2
1.3
1.5
.8
1.1
4.1
4.6
6.4
5.0
8.1
3.5
5.7
-5.1
4.1
6.5
1.4
1.8
2.1
.7
1.1
N o t e : Gross national product data reflect the benchmark revisions released in December 1980
by the U.S. Department of Commerce.
of (1) purchases of residential structures; (2) investment
in nonresidential structures; (3) purchases of producers’
durable equipment; and (4) changes in inventories of
businesses. Historically, gross domestic investment has
accounted for 15.0 to 16.0 percent of GNP. At the same
time, on a year-over-year basis, it is one of the most
volatile elements of final output. This is because invest
ment, more than any other component of GNP, repre
sents the anticipations of business for future profits and
potential growth and, thus, tends to fluctuate rather
sharply as those expectations change.
For example, in 1975, domestic investment fell to
$155 billion in real terms (more than $60 billion below
the 1973 level), a 12.5-percent share of GNP (down from
more than 17.0 percent in 1973). But, by 1980, invest
ment had recovered and accounted for about 15.0 per
cent of GNP. Because of its anticipatory role, investment
is an important key in determining the long-run growth
potential of the economy. In essence, it represents cur
rent commitments to future growth and is an important
source of productivity gains. In the three alternatives,
gross investment is expected to grow far more rapidly
than during the 1970’s. Between 1973 and 1980, gross
investment declined at an average annual rate of .9 per
cent. The low-trend model projects an average growth
rate of 5.3 percent during 1980-90, while the expecta
tions in the high-trend versions are for 8.8-percent an
nual growth.
The housing sector of the economy is one of the more
volatile segments of fixed investment expenditures. The
demand for new housing has been expanding steadily
throughout the postwar period. The number of house
holds increased by more than 30 million during 195580, an average annual increase of 2.1 percent, or 1.3
million new households every year. The rate of new
household formation has also accelerated, from 2.0 per
cent in 1955 to 2.7 percent in 1980, not only because of
the baby-boom bulge, but also because of an increasing
tendency toward single-person households.
At the same time, the ability of the housing sector to
meet the demand for new housing is greatly dependent
on financial considerations, especially the availability of
credit. Because interest rates and credit availability are
closely tied to the business cycle, swings in real output
can have a substantial impact on housing. For example,
during the 1975 recession, total private housing starts
dropped more than 43.0 percent from the peak of 2.4
million in 1972. Real expenditures for residential invest
ment fell by 34.0 percent during the same period.
When the supply and demand considerations are
combined, it is reasonable to assume that the recessions
of 1970, 1975, and 1980 have created much pent-up de
mand for new housing. However, demand for housing
has been changing. Many families are giving up the
“American dream” of a single-family home because of
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increasing costs and also because of greater interest in
leisure-time pursuits. The shift toward more energy-effi
cient, less costly multifamily homes is expected to con
tinue throughout the 1980’s. The rate is difficult to pre
dict, however, and is the major difference between the
low- and high-trend versions.
A final demographic factor affecting the projection of
residential investment is the prediction that new house
hold formation will slow dramatically in coming years,
declining from 2.7 percent in 1980 to 1.9 percent in
1985 and to 1.6 percent in 1990. Although the slow
down is apparent over the entire decade, the effects are
not expected to be seen until the latter half because of
the pent-up demand left over from the recessions of the
1970’s.
In the low-trend projection, a moderate recovery
from the 1980 slowdown is expected as real residential
investment increases at a rate of 7.0 percent between
1980 and 1985, reaching $67.6 billion in 1985. In both
high-trend alternatives, a sharp comeback from the
1980 recession is expected. In the high-I projection, the
expected rate of growth is 10.2 percent, attaining a level
of $78.5 billion. The high-II version attains a growth
rate of 9.8 percent over the five-year period. In all three
cases, housing starts are expected to rebound to the
2.0-million unit level by 1984 or 1985. The primary rea
son for less growth in the low-trend alternative is that
continued high inflation is expected to hasten the shift
from single-family to multifamily dwellings. Because
multifamily units usually cost somewhat less than sin
gle-family homes, increases in total real expenditures
will be lower. In all alternatives, real residential invest
ment expenditures account for between 4.1 and 4.3 per
cent of GNP in 1985, approximately the share attained
at the prior peak in the 1977-78 period.
After 1985, the demographic effects become apparent
as growth in high-trend residential investment falls to
an annual rate of 3.2 and 3.5 percent between 1985 and
1990 in versions high-I and high-II. In the low-trend
model, virtually no growth is anticipated during the lat
ter half of the decade. Annual housing starts are
expected to decline from about 2.0 million units in 1985
to between 1.7 and 1.9 million units by 1990.
Between 1955 and 1968, business fixed investment
grew by 4.6 percent a year. Between 1968 and 1973,
growth remained virtually the same at 4.7 percent a
year. During the remainder of the 1970’s, however,
growth of real business expenditures for plant and
equipment slowed sharply to a rate of 2.0 percent
growth in the 1973-80 period. In the low-trend version,
2.8-percent growth per year is projected for the 1980-85
period. In other words, the rate of change in business
investment apparent in the 1970’s will continue for the
first half of the 1980’s after an initial upsurge in 1981.
After 1985, the more representative long-term growth
23
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW August 1981 • Economic Projections Through 1990
rates (4.7 percent) will return, as a result of the impact
of corporate tax assumptions and increasing corporate
revenues.
In the high-trend versions, quite different assump
tions are made regarding both the timing and intensity
of fiscal incentives for business investment. Investment
in plant and equipment is expected to increase by 6.2
percent a year during 1980-85, then accelerate to 7.3
percent growth, topping $300 billion in 1990. This com
ponent accounts for 14.0 percent of GNP in 1990 in
both high-trend projections, up from an average of
about 11.0 percent in the 1970’s. The tax assumptions
and the resulting impact on business investment are
based on the growing realization that long-term im
provements in productivity growth will depend on new
plant and equipment purchases. The impact of fixed
business investment on the stock of private nonfarm
capital7is shown in the following growth rates:
A c tu a l
1955-68 ............................................................
1968-73 ............................................................
197 3 -8 0 ............................................................
3.7
4.4
3.7
P ro jec ted
Low
1980-85 .............................................
198 5 -9 0 .............................................
3.4
4.2
High-I
4.1
5.4
High-II
4.1
5.5
The slowing growth of the capital stock in the 1973—
80 period will continue through 1985 in the low-trend
version, before improving slightly during 1985-90. The
assumptions underlying the high-trend versions lead to
expectations of a strong recovery over the entire 1980
decade.
The ratio of capital to hours paid in the nonfarm sec
tor is a general measure of how much plant and equip
ment is available to workers for producing output. The
ratio is considered an im portant determinant of labor
productivity growth. Between 1955 and 1975, this ratio
expanded at an annual rate of 2.7 percent in real terms,
increasing from $7,000 of capital available per workerhour in 1955 to $12,000 in 1975. Between 1975 and
1980, however, the ratio rose by only .6 percent each
year, to $12,400.
Only slight recoveries are projected for this ratio dur
ing the first half of the 1980’s in the low- and high-I
projections. In the low-trend version, this is a result of
continuing slow growth in investment. In the high-I
case, the much higher investment rates are offset by the
higher assumed labor force growth rates (and conse
quent increases in total hours paid). In the high-II ver
sion, the high investment rates combined with lower
employment levels lead to the fairly strong annual
growth of 2.2 percent over the 1980-85 period. After
1985, all three projections attain strong growth in the
capital-hours ratio, ranging from 2.9 percent in the low-
Digitized for
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trend version to 4.0 percent average growth in the highII case. The stock of business inventories is expected, in
all projections, to expand slowly relative to GNP, re
flecting historical trends.
Foreign trade. Both imports and exports have accounted
for an increasing share of GNP, and this trend is
expected to continue throughout the 1980-90 period. In
current dollars, the balance on the current and long
term capital account is assumed to be a policy variable
with the long-term value of zero. Such a policy would
maintain the current-dollar balance on goods and ser
vices at a relatively low positive level. In the past, be
cause import and export prices tended to move together
in terms of both levels and rates, a zero current-dollar
balance implied a zero constant-dollar balance. During
the 1970’s, average import prices grew at a much faster
rate did average export prices. The disparity was pri
marily due to much higher petroleum prices, although
world inflation generally was higher than in the United
States. It is assumed that foreign prices will once again
move at roughly the same pace as export prices during
the projection period, but it is also expected that the dif
ference in level will never be made up. Therefore, as the
United States strives to maintain a current-dollar bal
ance of trade, the impact on constant dollar trade will
be a generally more rapid rate of growth in exports rel
ative to imports, thereby improving the real balance of
trade over time.
Government. The government portion of GNP comprises
purchases of goods and services and compensation of
employees. All other expenditures are excluded by defi
nition. Real purchases by Federal, State, and local gov
ernments accounted for almost 25.0 percent of GNP in
1968; since then, the share of GNP accounted for by
purchases of goods and services has declined, reaching
the 19.6-percent level by 1980. This drop was due al
most entirely to the cessation of U.S. military involve
ment in Vietnam.
Real Federal purchases fell at an average rate of 1.4
percent during the 1968-80 period because of large de
clines in defense spending. Federal purchases as a share
of GNP fell sharply, from 12.1 percent in 1968 to 7.3
percent in 1980. State and local government purchases
also declined as a proportion of GNP during 1968-70.
The trend toward a smaller share of production
accounted for by government purchases is expected to
continue throughout the 1980’s in the two high-trend
versions. In all projections, Federal defense purchases
grow sharply in real terms during the early 1980’s, and
slow slightly after 1985. Defense purchases are project
ed to stabilize at about 5.0 percent of GNP over the lat
ter half of the decade. As noted earlier, virtually no
change in military force levels is assumed during the
1980’s. Therefore, the increases in real defense expendi
tures are expected to be replacing obsolete materiel and
performing research and development for more sophisti
cated weapons systems.
Nondefense purchases, in contrast, are expected to
decline at a 1.0 to 3.0 percent annual rate between
1980 and 1985, and to grow by less than 1.0 percent
each year after 1985 in all projections. This reflects the
assumption that many programs will experience rela
tively slower growth or be scaled back in the 1980’s,
while the primary emphasis shifts to defense prepared
ness. The net effect is to drop Federal purchases of
goods and services from 7.3 percent of GNP in 1980 to
about 6.5 percent by 1990 in the high-trend versions.
In the low-trend projection, Federal purchases will
continue to account for roughly the same proportion of
GNP throughout the decade.
In the State and local sector, the largest change from
prior trends is expected in the education sector. As the
baby-boom generation matures, the number of school
enrollees should decline smoothly over the entire de
cade. A sharp slowdown in the growth of educational
purchases is projected to 1985, with absolute declines
subsequently. The children of the baby-boom generation
are expected to increase educational demand beginning
around 1985, but the effect will be mild and relatively
short-lived.
Purchases of goods less compensation for public safe
ty are projected to decline sharply in the early 1980’s as
the rapidly increasing cost of fuel affects the purchases
of new equipment for police and firefighters. The re
maining categories of State and local purchases are
expected to grow much less rapidly over the coming de
cade. The net effect of these considerations is to lower
State and local purchases from 12.3 percent of GNP in
1980 to the 10.0- to 11.0-percent range in 1990.
It should be emphasized that government’s declining
share of GNP during the 1980’s does not mean that gov
ernment purchases are expected to decline in absolute
terms. Rather, the expected growth rate— 1.8 percent
between 1980 and 1990— is somewhat lower than the
overall GNP growth rate.
In summary, three scenarios have been set for eco
nomic growth in the 1980’s: the first reflecting moderate
increases and the others showing a return to the strong
growth of the 1950’s and 1960’s. With the assumptions
underlying the projections, the most notable occurrence
in the 1980’s is the shift in spending from the public
sector to the private sector, especially for investment.
However, the change depends on the fiscal assumptions
discussed earlier; with other assumptions, the results
could be different.
Employment and hours
The number of jobs, the average number of hours
paid per job, and the level of real output per hour are
key determinants of potential output in the economy.
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These factors are detailed in table 3. During the 25
years between 1955 and 1980, the number of jobs in
creased from 68.7 million to 105.6 million, or about 1.5
million jobs a year. During this period, many important
shifts occurred. Military force levels declined from 3
million in 1955 to 2.1 million in 1980. Agricultural em
ployment also declined, from 6.4 million to 2.8 million
jobs, because of increases in farm productivity. Civilian
government employment, in contrast, grew from 9.4
percent of total employment in 1955 to 14.6 percent in
1980, an increase of 8.9 million. Most of this growth—
8.3 million jobs— occurred in State and local govern
ment. Private nonfarm employment increased by 33 mil
lion jobs, a growth of more than 1.3 million each year,
increasing its share of employment from 76.8 percent in
1955 to 80.8 percent in 1980.
Several major changes in employment are expected to
occur in the alternatives. Total employment is expected
to increase at an average rate of 1.6 percent each year
between 1980 and 1985 in the low-growth and high-II
versions. This amounts to 2.2 million jobs a year, a
more rapid increase than that projected for the total la
bor force— 1.7 percent each year, or 1.9 million new la
bor force entrants. The higher employment growth re
flects the relatively rapid decline in the unemployment
rate following the 1980 slowdown. In the high-I ver
sion, a higher labor force projection, combined with an
even more rapid decline in the unemployment rate,
yields total annual employment growth of 2.4 percent
between 1980 and 1985, or slightly fewer than 2.7 mil
lion jobs a year.
In all alternatives, the rate of employment growth be
gins to slow in the latter half of the decade, to 1.4, 1.9,
and 1.5 percent, respectively, for the low-, high-I, and
high-II models. This reflects the projected slowdown in
labor force growth after 1985.
The share of jobs between the public and private sec
tors is an im portant determinant of the level of real
supply GNP, because productivity in the public sector is
assumed to be nearly constant.8Therefore, if public em
ployment accounted for larger shares of total employ
ment, the associated growth in real GNP would be
reduced. Federal employment is expected to expand
during the 1980-90 period, but the rate of growth (.1
percent annually) is considerably less than the total em
ployment growth expected in all three alternatives. The
military force level is projected to virtually stabilize at
the current level of 2.1 million persons for all alterna
tives. State and local government employment is also
expected to grow less rapidly than total employment. In
the latter half of the 1950’s and during all of the 1960’s,
the growth in State and local employment was due, in
large part, to very rapid growth in public education.
School enrollment, however, moderated during the lat
ter 1970’s. The echo effect from the baby-boom genera
tion will begin to be seen around 1985, but will be
25
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW August 1981 • Economic Projections Through 1990
Table 3. Labor force, employment, productivity, and gross national product, 1955, 1968, 1973, and 1980, and projected to
1985 and 1990
[Employment data in thousands ]
Projected
Actual
Category
1955
Total labor force (including military) .............................................
Unemployed .........................................................................................
Employed (persons concept)................................................................
Adjustment factor (persons to jo b s ).....................................................
Employment (jobs concept) .....................................................................
General government..............................................................................
Federal ..............................................................................................
M ilitary...........................................................................................
Civilian...........................................................................................
State and lo c a l..................................................................................
Private ..................................................................................................
Agriculture.........................................................................................
Nonagriculture ..................................................................................
Private average annual hours per job .....................................................
Agriculture.........................................................................................
Nonagriculture ..................................................................................
Private GNP per hour (1972 dollars) ........................................................
Agriculture.........................................................................................
Nonagriculture ..................................................................................
Total GNP (billions of 1972 dollars)..........................................................
General government..............................................................................
Private ..................................................................................................
Agriculture.........................................................................................
Nonagriculture ..................................................................................
1990
1985
68,072
2,853
65,219
3,438
68,657
9,520
4,779
3,049
1,730
4,741
59,137
6,424
52,713
2,126
2,473
2,083
4.56
1.84
4.95
657.5
84.6
572.9
29.3
543.6
1973
1980
91,040
4,305
86,735
4,557
91,292
15,185
4,354
2,326
2,028
10,831
76,107
3,206
72,901
1,961
2,290
1,943
7.48
4,30
7.65
1,255.0
139.1
1,115.9
31.6
1,084.3
106,821
7,448
99,373
6,188
105,561
17,481
4,402
2,102
2,300
13,079
88,080
2,823
85,257
1,884
2,311
1,870
7.99
6.21
8.06
1,480.7
155.2
1,325.5
40.5
1,285.0
1968
82,272
2,817
79,455
4,409
83,864
14,521
5,670
3,535
2,135
8,851
69,343
3,663
65,680
2,001
2,354
1,981
6.67
3.36
6.89
1,058.1
132.4
925.7
29.0
896.7
Low
High-I
High-ll
Low
High-I
High-ll
117,114
8,049
109,065
4,697
113,762
17,587
4,355
2,129
2,226
13,232
96,175
2,622
93,553
1,856
2,301
1,844
8.35
6.05
8.43
1,653 3
163.0
1,490.3
36.5
1,453.8
120,381
6,504
113,877
5,090
118,967
17,587
4,355
2,129
2,226
13,232
101,380
2,922
98,458
1,865
2,301
1,852
8.58
6.25
8.66
1,784.7
163.0
1,621.7
42.0
1,579.7
117,114
6,899
110,215
4,705
114,920
17,441
4,209
2,129
2,080
13,232
97,479
2,922
94,557
1,862
2,301
1,848
8.89
6.26
8.99
1,775.1
161.4
1,613.7
42.1
1,571.6
124,504
7,342
117,162
4,796
121,958
18,106
4,429
2,129
2,300
13,677
103,852
2,334
101,518
1,819
2,246
1,809
9.17
7.18
9.23
1,902.4
169.7
1,732.7
37.6
1,695.1
130,252
5,125
125,127
5,524
130,651
18,106
4,429
2,129
2,300
13,677
112,545
2,634
109,911
1,825
2,246
1,815
9.75
7.95
9.80
2,172.6
169.7
2,002.9
47.0
1,955.9
124,504
5,507
118,997
4,947
123,944
17,886
4,209
2,129
2,080
13,677
106,058
2,634
103,424
1,824
2,246
1,814
10.36
8.00
10.43
2,171.8
167.1
2,004.7
47.3
1,957.4
Average annual rate of change
Total labor force (including military) .............................................
Unemployed .........................................................................................
Employed (persons concept)................................................................
Adjustment factor (persons to jo b s ).....................................................
Employment (jobs concept) .....................................................................
General government..............................................................................
Federa .............................................................................................
M ilitary...........................................................................................
C ivilian...........................................................................................
State and lo c a l..................................................................................
Private ..................................................................................................
Agriculture.........................................................................................
Nonagriculture ..................................................................................
Private average annual hours per job .....................................................
Agriculture.........................................................................................
Nonagriculture ..................................................................................
Private GNP per hour (1972 dollars) ........................................................
Agriculture.........................................................................................
Nonagriculture ..................................................................................
Total GNP (billions of 1972 dollars) .............................................
General government..............................................................................
Private ..................................................................................................
Agriculture.........................................................................................
Nonagriculture ..................................................................................
1955-68
1968-73
1973^0
1.5
-.1
1.5
1.9
1.5
3.3
1.3
1.1
1.6
4.9
1.2
-4.2
1.7
-.5
- .4
-.4
3.0
4.7
2.6
3.7
3.5
3.8
-.1
3.9
2.0
8.9
1.8
.7
1.7
.9
_ 5.1
B.O
- 1.0
4.1
1.9
2.6
2.1
.4
-.6
-.4
2.3
5.1
2.1
3.5
1.0
3.8
1.7
3.9
2.3
8.1
2.0
4.5
2.1
2.0
.2
-1.4
1.8
2.7
2.1
-1.8
2.3
-.6
.1
-.5
.9
5.4
.7
2.4
1.6
2.5
3.6
2.5
1985^90
1980-85
1.9
1.6
1.9
-5.4
1.5
.1
-.2
.3
-.7
.2
1.8
-1 .5
1.9
- .3
-.1
-.3
.9
- .5
.9
2.2
1.0
2.4
-2.1
2.5
2.4
-2.7
2.8
-3.8
2.4
.1
-.2
.3
- .7
.2
2.9
.7
2.9
-.2
-.1
- .2
1.4
.1
1.4
3.8
1.0
4.1
.7
4.2
1.9
-1.5
2.1
-5.3
1.7
(')
- .9
.3
-2 .0
.2
2.0
.7
2.1
- .2
-.1
-.2
2.2
.2
2.2
3.7
.8
4.0
.8
4.1
1.6
-4.7
1.9
1.6
1.9
.6
.3
(’ )
.7
.7
2.1
-2.1
2.2
-.4
-.5
-.4
2.6
4.9
2.5
4.0
.8
4.3
2.3
4.4
1.2
-1.8
1.4
.4
1.4
.6
.3
(’ )
.7
.7
1.5
-2 .3
1.6
-.4
-.5
-.4
1.9
3.5
1.8
2.8
.8
3.1
.6
3.1
1.2
-4.4
1.5
1.0
1.5
.5
C)
(’ )
o
.7
1.7
-2.1
1.8
-.4
- .5
-.4
3.1
5.0
3.0
4.1
.7
4.4
2.4
4.5
' Less than 0.05 percent
relatively insignificant until after 1990. The result is an
annual growth in the number of education-related em
ployees of .3 percent during the 1980-85 period, and
annual declines of .5 percent during 1985-90. The de
clines, however, will be somewhat offset by continued
growth in other programs and the administrative em
ployment associated with these programs, although at a
less rapid rate than in the past. As a result, private em
ployment is expected to expand more rapidly than total
employment over the entire projection period in all al
ternatives. Following are the proportion of private and
26
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government employment for 1980, 1985, and 1990:
1990
1985
P r iv a te ...........
Farm . . . .
Nonfarm . .
Government .
Federal . . .
State and
local . . .
Education
Other
1980
Low
H ig h - I
H ig h - I I
Low
H ig h - I
H ig h - I I
83.4
84.5
85.2
84.8
85.2
86.1
85.6
2.7
2.3
2.5
2.5
1.9
2.0
2.1
80.8
82.2
82.8
82.3
83.2
84.1
83.4
16.6
15.5
14.8
15.2
14.8
13.9
14.4
4.2
3.8
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.4
3.4
12.4
11.6
11.1
11.5
11.2
10.5
11.0
6.5
5.9
5.6
5.8
5.3
5.0
5.2
5.9
5.8
5.5
5.8
5.9
5.5
5.8
The declining share of government employment re
flects the impact of demographic shifts, as well as the
apparent public preference for a smaller government
role in the civilian sector of the economy.
Hours. Average weekly hours paid are projected to con
tinue to decline at approximately the long-term histori
cal rate. In the private nonfarm sector, the long-term
decrease in weekly hours has been influenced by the
trend toward more service employees, which lowers av
erage hours because many work short weeks or on a
part-time basis, and by the increase in female labor
force participation, which began in the mid-1960’s.
Many of these women took part-time positions. This
contributed to the service sector effect which is project
ed to continue and will cut averge weekly hours. Fe
male labor force participation rates are also projected to
grow at a rather strong pace during the 1980’s. Howev
er, it is assumed that the disparity between part-time
jobholding rates of men and women will diminish dur
ing the 1980’s; thus, the growth of female labor force
participation will no longer have an appreciable impact
on the average workweek. Women are expected to be
increasingly employed in all sectors of the economy.
a l t e r n a t i v e p a t h s of growth encompass reason
able possibilities for expansion of the economy during
the 1980’s. The low-trend projection examines the im
plications of a moderately expanding labor force, con
tinued low growth in productivity, and high inflation.
The high-trend projections study the effects of a more
rapidly expanding labor force (high-I) coupled with
more optimistic assumptions regarding both productivi
ty and inflation. The projected range of real GNP growth
averages between 2.5 and 3.9 percent annually over the
1980-90 period, yielding a difference among the alter
native scenarios of $270 billion by 1990. The projections
hinge on the underlying assumptions and could be
significantly affected by even small changes in the latter.
These are medium-term projections of theU.S. economy,
and no attempt has been made to forecast cyclical
fluctuations. The projections should not be construed
as a forecast of a likely growth path but as the pro
bable range of economic growth during the 1980’s. □
T he
FOOTNOTES
1The projections are part of a BLS program of studies aimed at an
alyzing long-run economic growth. The primary objective is to devel
op projections of employment and occupational requirements under
alternative assumptions. Other articles in the series discuss industry
projections of output and employment and future trends in occupa
tional demand. As part of a continuing program to assess the validity
of BLS projections, future articles will evaluate the projections of the
U.S. economy for 1980. For previous articles, see Norman C.
Saunders, “The U.S. economy to 1990: two projections for growth,”
Monthly Labor Review, December 1978, pp. 36-46; Arthur
Andreassen, “Changing patterns of demand: BLS projections to
1990,” Monthly Labor Review, December 1978, pp. 47-55; Valerie A.
Personick, “Industry output and employment: BLS projections to
1990,” Monthly Labor Review,
April 1979, pp. 3-14; Thomas
Nardone, “The Job Outlook in Brief, Based on the Occupational Out
look Handbook, 1980-81 Edition,” O c c u p a tio n a l O u tlo o k Q u a rte rly ,
Spring 1980, pp. 2-21; Paul T. Christy and Karen J. Horowitz,
“Evaluation of b l s projections of 1975 output and employment,”
Monthly Labor Review, August 1979, pp. 8-19; and Max L. Carey,
“Evaluating the 1975 occupational employment projections,” Month
ly Labor Review, June 1980, pp. 10-21.
2See Lester C. Thurow, “A Fiscal Policy Model of the United
States,” Survey o f Current Business, June 1969, pp. 45-64. The BLS
economic growth model is a software system comprised of a modified
version of the Thurow macroeconomic model, several demand
submodels, and an input-output and industry level employment mod
el. A detailed methodological description of the current model is be
ing prepared for publication, as is a description of the operating
system.
' The Department of Energy projections are taken from the energy
forecasts developed for the Energy Information Agency’s Annual Re
port to Congress, 1979 (June 1980), a medium international oil price
version. They assume an average landed crude oil price of $37 per
barrel by 1990, in 1979 dollars.
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4 Projections of the Population of the United States: 1977 to 2050,
Current Population Reports (Bureau of the Census, Series P-25, No.
704, 1977) and Projections of the Number of Households in the Unit
ed States: 1979 to 2000, Current Population Reports (Bureau of the
Census, Series P-25, No. 805, 1979).
5 Howard N Fullerton, Jr., “The 1995 labor force: a first look,”
Monthly Labor Review, December 1980, pp. 11-21.
" A tremendous amount of material has been written on the reasons
behind the slowdown in productivity growth. Major studies include
R. Kutscher, G. Mark, and J. R. Norsworthy, “The productivity
slowdown and the outlook to 1985,” Monthly Labor Review, May
1977, pp. 3-8; J. R. Norsworthy, M. Harper, and J. Kunze, “The
Slowdown in Productivity Growth: an Analysis of Some Contributing
Factors,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 2, 1979; P.
Clark, “Capital Formation and the Recent Productivity Slowdown,”
Journal o f Finance, June 1978, pp. 967-75; D. Hudson and E.
Jorgenson, “Energy Prices and the U.S. Economy, 1972-1976,” Data
Resources Review, September 1976, pp. 1.24-1.37; J. Beebe, “A Note
on Intersectoral Shifts and Aggregate Productivity Change,” Annals
o f Economic and Social Measurement, Summer 1975, pp. 389-95; and
E. Denison, Accounting for Slower Economic Growth (Washington,
D.C. Brookings Institution, 1979).
The estimates of capital stock developed in the projections are
consistent with the gross stocks series presented in Fixed Nonresidential Business and Residential Capital in the United States, 192575 (U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
1976).
KBy national income accounting conventions, there is no change
over time in government productivity. Rather, it is assumed that real
output for a government employee is equal to that person’s compen
sation in the dollar base year (1972 in this case). Apparent changes in
average real compensation reflect shifts in the grade structure of gov
ernment employees over time.
27
The outlook for industry output
and employment through 1990
The future looks bright for service,
durable goods, and high-technology industries;
projections assume lower unemployment and
taxes, higher investment and productivity,
and continued oil scarcity
V a l e r ie A. Perso nick
The structure of employment in the United States has
undergone considerable change in recent decades. Al
though employment is growing in virtually all sectors of
the economy, growth has been much more rapid in ser
vice-producing industries than in goods-producing in
dustries. This trend is projected to continue under the
economic conditions assumed by the Bureau of Labor
Statistics in its revised projections for the next decade,
although at a different pace.
Three alternative scenarios for industry output and
employment growth were prepared. The low-trend ver
sion assumes a decline in the rate of expansion of the
labor force, continued high inflation, moderate produc
tivity gains, and modest increases in real output and
employment. In high-trend version I, the economy is
buoyed by larger labor force growth, much lower unem
ployment rates, higher production, dampening of price
increases, and greater improvements in productivity.
The third alternative, high-trend II, is characterized by
the rapid output growth of high-trend I but assumes
the same labor force as the low-trend version. Produc
tivity gains are quite substantial in this alternative.
Summary of employment trends
Between 1959 and 1969, total employment in the
United States rose by 2.0 percent a year. The most rap
id increase was posted by the government sector, which
grew at an average annual rate of 4.0 percent. Expan-
Valerie A. Personick is an economist in the Office of Economic
Growth and Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
28
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sion of public sector employment during the 1960’s re
flected strong demand for teachers and other education
al personnel as the baby-boom generation entered
school, effects of the Vietnam war buildup, and in
creases in government services resulting from “Great
Society” and other programs. Job growth in miscella
neous service industries was also stronger than for the
economy as a whole, while manufacturing, the largest
sector in 1959, had a growth rate just about equal to
the all-industries average.
During the 1970’s, job growth accelerated in the sec
tors defined as service-producing but slowed in manu
facturing and government. Between 1969 and 1979,
employment rose 4.0 percent annually in other (or mis
cellaneous) services, 3.6 percent in finance, insurance,
and real estate, and 3.0 percent in trade, but only 0.5
percent in manufacturing and 1.1 percent in govern
ment. By the end of the decade, wholesale and retail
trade had replaced manufacturing as the largest employ
ment sector. The fast-growing miscellaneous services
sector ranked third, having overtaken government.
Thus, while almost 1 out of every 4 jobs was in a man
ufacturing industry in 1959, by 1979 this sector
accounted for only 1 out of every 5 jobs. In contrast,
jobs in other services represented less than 1 of 7 in
1959, but by 1979 had expanded to almost 1 of 5.
During the 1980’s, these trends are expected to con
tinue under the conditions assumed by BLS for the 1990
economy. Other services is projected to continue to be
the fastest-growing sector, accounting for more jobs
than manufacturing by 1985. The employment shares of
trade, mining, and finance, insurance, and real estate are
also expected to rise over the next decade, while manu
facturing, agriculture, transportation, communications,
and public utilities, although posting gains during the
1980’s, are projected to represent smaller portions of all
jobs.
Under the low-trend assumptions, total employment
will rise from 104.1 million in 1979 to 122.0 million by
1990, a net increase of 17.9 million jobs. In the hightrend high-employment model (version I), 26.5 million
new jobs will be added to the 1979 level, for total em
ployment of 130.7 million in 1990. In the high-trend
low-employment model (version II), employment would
reach 124.0 million by 1990.
The rates of job increase between 1979 and 1990 in
the low-trend and high-trend II versions (1.4 and 1.6
percent a year, respectively) represent a slowdown over
the previous two decades, while the high-trend I rate of
2.1 percent represents a somewhat faster pace.
Characteristics of the 1990 economy
Labor force. The civilian labor force is expected to grow
1.6 percent a year between 1979 and 1990 in the lowtrend and high-trend II models, and 2.0 percent a year
in the high-trend I model. Both rates are considerably
smaller than the 2.7 percent average annual rate of ex
pansion posted during 1975-79. The slowdown should
occur as the last of the baby-boom generation enter the
labor force.
Under both labor force scenarios, two-thirds of the
growth is provided by women. The first assumes that
the proportion of women age 20 to 44 in the labor force
will rise at an increasing rate until 1983; participation
rates of men in most age groups are expected to decline,
although not as fast as they did during the 1970’s. The
second scenario assumes even faster growth for wom
en’s participation rates, and a reversal of the decline in
men’s rates:
_________ P ro jec ted _________
A c tu a l
L o w la b o r
fo r c e
scen a rio
H ig h la b o r
fo r c e
scen ario
1975
1979
1985
1990
1985
1990
Labor force
(in m illions) . . . .
M en ............... .
W om en . . . . .
92.6
55.6
37.0
102.9
59.5
43.4
115.0
63.6
51.4
122.4
65.9
56.5
118.3
64.8
53.4
128.1
68.2
59.9
Participation rate . .
M en ............... .
W om en . . . . .
61.2
77.9
46.3
63.7
77.9
51.0
66.5
77.7
56.5
67.9
77.2
59.6
68.4
79.2
58.7
71.1
79.9
63.2
Unemployment rate. Somewhat offsetting the effects of
slower labor force growth on job creation are assump
tions about unemployment. The unemployment rate is
assumed to decline following the 1980 recession and
then level off within a range of possible full employment
levels. In the low-trend forecast, the rate is assumed to
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fall from 7.1 percent in 1980 to 7.0 percent by 1985 and
6.0 percent by 1990. The more optimistic high-trend as
sumptions are for a 5.5-percent unemployment rate in
1985 and 4.0 percent in 1990 in version I, and 6.0 per
cent in 1985 and 4.5 percent in 1990 in version II.
Gross national product. Gross national product ( g n p ) is
projected to expand 2.4 percent annually between 1979
and 1990 in the low-trend version, and 3.8 percent in
the high-trend versions. The low-trend estimate roughly
corresponds to the experience of the 1973-79 period,
when real GNP increased at an average rate of 2.8 per
cent a year. Assumptions underlying the high-trend
projections more closely resemble the growth path of an
earlier period, 1955-68, during which the economy was
expanding at a 3.7-percent annual pace.
Taxes. In all cases, reductions in both personal income
taxes and the effective corporate tax rate are assumed to
take place throughout the decade. The high-growth al
ternatives, in particular, incorporate an assumption of a
vigorously pursued policy of investment incentives.
Productivity. The productivity slowdown which charac
terized the 1970’s is assumed to at least stabilize during
the 1980’s, as some of the contributory factors are mini
mized or even reversed. The rate of productivity growth
in the private sector declined from 3.0 percent a year
during 1955-68 to 2.3 percent between 1968 and 1973
and 0.9 percent between 1973 and 1980. Among the
reasons cited for this drop are an influx of inexperienced
labor force entrants, energy price shocks, investment in
environmental protection and energy conservation rath
er than in production, and less per-employee capital ac
cumulation in general. In the coming decade, however,
the baby-boom generation will be in the prime working
age groups, creating a proportionately more experienced
labor force. Investment in capital goods is projected to
be stimulated by specific government policies, and
businesses are expected to become more adept at
responding to changes in energy resources. As a result,
annual labor productivity growth in the private sector is
projected to be 0.9 percent during 1980-85 and 1.9 per
cent during 1985-90 in the low-trend forecast, 1.4 per
cent and 2.6 percent in the high-trend I version, and 2.2
percent and 3.1 percent in the high-trend II model.
Energy assumptions
Higher prices and uncertain supply for oil and natu
ral gas, both domestic and foreign, have begun to force
both conservation and a shift to other energy sources.
During the 1980’s, these trends are projected to intensi
fy. Domestic production of crude oil and natural gas
and refined petroleum products is expected to remain
virtually unchanged or decline slightly throughout the
29
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW August 1981 •
I n d u s t r y O u t p u t a n d E m p l o y m e n t P r o j e c t io n s
decade, while oil imports are assumed to be cut back
drastically. In 1977, imports of crude oil accounted for
almost one-third of total U.S. supply. That ratio has be
gun to turn down somewhat, and is expected to contin
ue to decline to 21.5 percent by 1990 in the low-trend
version, or to between 24.2 and 24.5 percent in the
high-trend models.
To the degree possible, the energy assumptions are
based on the “ 1979 Annual Report to the Congress” of
the U.S. Department of Energy.1(See table 1.) The mid
price case of the department was chosen as the basis for
the BLS projections. This case assumes that crude oil
nominal prices will rise from $31.37 a barrel in 1979 to
$51.14 in 1985, and to $81.33 in 1990. The depart
ment’s projected rates of growth for domestic output
and imports under these price conditions were applied
to BLS data to derive the 1985 and 1990 levels of do
mestic production of various types of energy and the
level of oil imports.
Coal output is projected to boom as electric utilities
and other industrial users substitute it for scarcer, more
expensive oil in their production processes. This return
to coal as an important energy source has already had
an impact on the industry— coal production increased
20.3 percent in 1979 and 8.3 percent in 1980; employ
ment jumped 25.6 percent in 1979 to a 25-year high of
265,000 jobs and held close to that level in 1980. Coal
output in the low-trend projection is estimated to sus
tain an 8.1 percent yearly growth, at least through
1985, after which the rate is expected to taper to 3.6
percent annually during 1985-90. In the high-trend ver
sions, coal production will increase 9.1 to 9.4 percent a
year during 1979-85, and 4.5 to 4.7 percent annually
thereafter.
The vigorous rates of growth projected for coal pro
duction result not only from the assumption of strong
domestic demand, but from substantial foreign demand
as well. Exports of coal are expected to expand 5.7 per
cent annually between 1977 and 1990 in the low-trend
Table 1. U.S. energy supply by source, actual and
projected, selected years, 1965-90
Actual
Projected
Item
Total domestic energy supply:
Quadrillion BTU per y e a r....................
Coal:
Quadrillion BTU per y e a r....................
Percent of total supply ......................
Domestic oil and gas:
Quadrillion BTU per y e a r ....................
Percent of total supply ......................
Net oil and gas Imports:
Quadrillion BTU per y e a r....................
Percent of total supply ......................
Nuclear:
Quadrillion BTU per y e a r ....................
Percent of total supply ......................
S ource:
1965
1973
1978
1979
1985
1990
53.7
75.0
78.4
79.3
81.6
89.1
13.4
25.0
14.4
19.2
15.0
19.1
17.4
21.9
25.0
30.6
29.3
32.9
34.2
63.7
44.3
59.1
40.2
51.3
39.6
49.9
36.9
45.2
38.3
43.0
5.4
10.1
14.0
18.7
17.6
22.4
17.7
22.3
12.9
15.8
12.5
14.0
.9
1.2
3.0
3.8
2.8
3.5
5.6
6.9
8.2
9.2
U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration.
Digitized 30
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version, and 9.9 to 10.8 percent a year in the high-trend
versions.
Consumption of electricity will rise during the 1980’s
as an alternative energy source for both home heating
and industrial production. Output is projected to grow
3.3 percent a year between 1979 and 1990 in the lowtrend version, and 4.4 percent a year in both high-trend
scenarios. Coal is expected to be an increasingly impor
tant input in the production of electricity, while nuclear
power sources are assumed to expand only slightly over
the next decade and account for a very small fraction of
total electricity production.
Final demand trends
P e r s o n a l c o n s u m p t i o n d o m i n a n t . Personal consumption
expenditures accounted for nearly two-thirds of total
gross national product in 1979, and while these outlays
are projected to grow somewhat more slowly than total
GNP over the next decade, they will still be by far its
largest component.
Among consumption categories, expenditures for
nondurable items, such as food and household supplies,
are expected to continue to grow more slowly than out
lays for durable goods and services. This long-term
trend reflects the tendency of consumers to spend less
of their budget on necessary staples and shift more dis
cretionary income to higher-priced durable goods or to
recreation and other services as disposable incomes rise.
Food and tobacco, which together accounted for al
most 29 percent of the personal consumption budget in
1955, are projected to represent only 17 to 19 percent
in 1990. Tobacco expenditures, in particular, are
expected to have the second-fastest rate of decline of all
personal consumption categories. (The most rapid drop
is projected for gasoline and oil purchases.)
One of the fastest-growing components of personal
expenditures projected is medical care services. This
item accounted for 8.3 percent of personal consumption
expenditures in 1972 and 8.7 percent in 1979, but is
expected to represent more than 10 percent of such con
sumption in 1990. One of the main causes for rapid
projected growth of real medical care expenditures will
be an aging population. In 1979, the number of persons
age 65 or older was 24.7 million, or 11.2 percent of the
total population. In 1990, 29.8 million people, or 12.2
percent of the total, will be in this age group.2
Other categories of personal consumption expendi
tures projected to rise rapidly include amusements and
recreation services, and airline transportation. Expendi
tures for recreation have been steadily growing as a
share of all personal consumption expenditures, from
about 5.7 percent in 1955 to 6.3 percent in 1968 and
7.9 percent in 1979. In 1990, they are projected to ac
count for between 8.7 and 9.7 percent of all personal
consumption expenditures. Airline transportation is
expected to be the second-fastest growing component.
Outlays for consumer durables are projected to in
crease as a percentage of total personal consumption ex
penditures, particularly for household furnishings; home
electronic equipment such as radios, televisions, video
recorders, and personal computers; and m otor vehicles.
Under the low-trend version, most of the gains will oc
cur in the second half of the decade, while the hightrend models assume the recovery from the 1980 reces
sion will be swifter and purchases of consumer durables
will rise rapidly throughout the decade.
Investment growth the strongest. Investment, currently
about 15 percent of final demand, is projected to show
significantly more growth than the 0.6-percent annual
rate posted between 1973 and 1979, especially in the
second half of the next decade. The largest category of
investment, producers’ durable equipment, rises 5.0 per
cent annually in the low-trend version during the latter
years of the 1980’s, in line with the long-term historical
rate of growth; the high-trend versions predict an
8.1-percent annual expansion over the same period. The
rapid gain in the high-trend models reflects the better
business conditions and strong tax incentive programs
assumed in these versions.
A list of the specific types of equipment for which de
mand is projected to be greatest reflects the full fruition
of the “age of electronics.” Leading the advance will be
purchases of computers and peripheral equipment. Rap
idly growing investment demand is also expected for
optical equipment, typewriters and other office equip
ment, radio and communication equipment, and scienti
fic and controlling instruments. These products are all
characterized by or contribute to rapid advances in
technology. As older machines or production processes
become less efficient or even obsolete, businesses are
expected to buy more of these high-technology items in
relation to other capital goods to remain competitive.
Equipment for which slow growth in investment de
mand is expected includes special industry machinery;
engines, turbines, and generators; and office furniture.
Business investment in new plants is projected to
recover more slowly from the 1980 recession than in
vestment in equipment, due to the longer lead-times re
quired. After 1985, construction of new plants and
other business structures is expected to rebound at a
rate of growth in line with the long-term, pre-recession
rate of 4.7 percent.
Projections of residential investment show a very dif
ferent pattern than those for other types of investment.
This sector was the most severely hit by the 1975 and
1980 recessions— new housing starts plummeted from a
decade-high 2.4 million in 1972 to 1.3 million in 1980;
expenditures for residential investment declined by 0.9
percent a year during 1973-79. Over the same period,
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however, the rate of new household formation was ac
celerating, reflecting both the maturing of the babyboom generation and a trend toward more single-person
households. The demand for homeownership that was
pent up during the recession years is projected to spur
residential investment expenditures during the first half
of the 1980’s; growth is estimated at 2.2 percent a year
between 1979 and 1985 in the low-trend model and 4.5
to 4.8 percent in the high-trend models. After 1985,
however, the rate of new household formation is
expected to decline, and residential investment growth
drops to 1.0 percent annually in the low-trend version
and 3.2 to 3.5 percent in the high-trend scenarios.
Foreign trade will grow rapidly. Exports and imports
have been rising over time as a share of GNP, reflecting
the growing economic interdependence of the United
States and the rest of the world. This trend is projected
to continue into the next decade in all scenarios. In
1955, exports accounted for 4.7 percent of final de
mand; by 1979 that share had risen to 9.9 percent, and
is expected to climb to between 11.5 and 12.9 percent in
1990. Imports represented 3.6 percent of GNP in 1955,
7.4 percent in 1979, and are projected to account for
9.1 to 9.7 percent in 1990.
A wide variety of products is exported from the
United States each year. Chief among them in the past
have been food and feed grains, and other agricultural
products; m otor vehicles and parts; aircraft; chemicals;
and construction, mining, and oilfield machinery. These
goods are projected to continue to account for a sizable
share of exports in the coming years, but they are
expected to be joined by computers, electronic compo
nents, and coal as im portant export goods. Plastic prod
ucts exports are expected to grow much faster than the
average for all exports, but not as rapidly as in the past.
As the import share of GNP rises, raw materials pur
chases are becoming less significant compared to im
ports of finished capital and consumer goods, and this
trend is expected to continue. Imports of crude petro
leum are assumed to decline drastically, from 31 per
cent of the total supply of oil and natural gas in 1977
to between 21.5 and 24.5 percent by 1990.
The largest share of imported merchandise is
accounted for by motor vehicles and parts— 13.5 per
cent in 1977. As a percentage of the total value of out
put of all cars, trucks, buses, vans, and spare parts
purchased in the United States, imports grew from less
than 2 percent in 1963 to 12.5 percent by 1977 and to
13.8 percent in 1979. Further gains for imported motor
vehicles are projected as the domestic auto industry
struggles to recover from the devastating 1980 reces
sion. The value of the import share is projected to top
15 percent in 1985 in all three scenarios. After that
point, however, it declines somewhat to about 14.4 per31
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW August 1981 • Industry Output and Employment Projections
cent by 1990. The downturn is expected to occur as
American cars begin to compete effectively with gas
economizing imports, and more foreign automakers set
up factories in the United States.
Motorcycle and bicycle manufacturing is the industry
with the largest proportion of imports; it is expected to
rank first during the next decade as well, with imports
holding an almost steady 65-percent share. Radio and
television imports are projected to continue to dominate
the output of that industry, rising from 39 percent of
total output in 1977 to about 49 percent in 1990 in the
low-trend forecast, and to about 46 percent in the hightrend models. Among other industries with large vol
umes of imports, rising import shares are projected for
steel and primary nonferrous metals; steady or declining
shares are expected for imports of apparel, leather prod
ucts (including footwear), electronic components, and
paper products.
Government share dipping. Government purchases3 as a
whole are projected to grow somewhat more slowly
than total GNP in the coming decade, but wide variation
is assumed for different functions within the public sec
tor. For example, emphasis at the Federal level is
expected to swing back to national defense. In past
years, defense purchases have been declining in real
terms as a proportion of GNP. Real outlays for defense
dropped 7.3 percent annually between 1968 and 1973 as
the Vietnam war drew to a close, and then contracted
further, by an average of 0.3 percent each year through
1979. Sharp increases in defense spending are expected
for the 1980’s, particularly during the first half. Pur
chases are projected to grow 5.3 to 5.7 percent a year
between 1979 and 1985, rising 1.5 to 2.1 percent annu
ally thereafter.
All of the extra real defense expenditures are assumed
to be for materiel; the size of the armed forces is pro
jected to remain unchanged at 2.1 million. Among the
industries particularly affected by the projected defense
buildup are ordnance (which includes tanks), guided
missiles, aircraft, ship and boat building and repair, and
radio and other communication equipment.
In contrast, the nondefense portion of Federal pur
chases of goods and services is expected to show no
growth over the next decade. As a share of total final
demand, Federal nondefense purchases decline from 2.3
percent of GNP in 1979 to 1.9 percent by 1990 in the
low-trend version, 1.7 percent in high-trend version I,
and 1.5 percent in high-trend version II.
Expenditures for goods and services by State and lo
cal governments, which accounted for 12.1 percent of
GNP in 1979, will show only minimal growth during the
1980’s. Education expenditures are actually projected to
decline between 1985 and 1990, as the school- and col
lege-age population shrinks. In the latter year, there will
be only about 45.3 million children age 5 to 17 and
Digitized for
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25.1 million young adults between 18 and 24, compared
with 46.9 million and 29.3 million in 1979.4
The only area of State and local spending expected to
show any increase is the health field. It is assumed that
purchases of goods and services for public health will
just about keep pace with the rate of growth of the
economy as a whole.
Industry output
The projections of final demand by industry were
multiplied by an input-output table to yield projections
of the domestic output required by each industry to
meet that final demand. The table was based on the
1972 input-output matrix published by the Department
of Commerce,5 with several of the original coefficients
modified to reflect 1977 Commerce Department data or
other information on recent trends. Among the indus
tries for which special studies or assumptions were
made are the metals sectors, textiles, m otor vehicles, the
service sectors, and the energy industries.
Food production slows. As real incomes rise, purchases
of food for home consumption tend to level off. Food
purchases are projected to grow only slightly faster
than the population, and considerably more slowly than
purchases of other commodities. This slowdown will
affect almost all of the food industries, and indirectly,
the agricultural industries. The only food industries
expected to post output gains at least equal to total
GNP growth are those producing alcoholic beverages
and soft drinks. Domestic output of alcoholic bever
ages, including beer and wine, is assumed to keep pace
with rising incomes, while growth in the soft drink in
dustry will arise from higher levels of exports.
Little growth in other nondurable goods industries. Sever
al other nondurable manufacturing industries, such as
tobacco manufacturing, paper products, cleaning prepa
rations, and leather products, are also expected to ex
hibit only moderate output growth over the next
decade. The output of the refined petroleum products
industry is assumed to actually decline as demand
shrinks dramatically. Partly as a result of the petroleum
cutback, output of the nondurable goods sector will de
cline steadily as a share of total output. (See table 2.)
Although the output of the nondurable goods manu
facturing sector is projected to show only moderate
overall growth, several component industries are
expected to post faster-than-average gains. These in
clude the chemical products, drugs, apparel, and print
ing and publishing industries.
Growth strong fo r durable goods. The durable goods
portion of manufacturing, unlike nondurables, is pro
jected to grow faster than the all-industries average. Be
tween 1979 and 1990, production is expected to expand
Table 2.
Gross product originating1by major sector, actual and projected, selected years, 1959-90
Billions of 1972 dollars
Actual
Projected
Industry sector
1985
1959
Total priva te .....................................................
Agriculture ...................................................................
Nonagriculture..............................................................
Mining ...................................................................
Construction..........................................................
Manufacturing .....................................................
Durable goods .................................................
Nondurable goods............................................
Transportation, communications, and public
utilities ..............................................................
Transportation .................................................
Communications...............................................
Public utilities ...................................................
Wholesale and retail tra d e ....................................
Wholesale ........................................................
R e tail.................................................................
Finance, insurance, and real estate ....................
Other services2 ...................................................
Government enterprises ......................................
Rest of world and statistical discrepancy ...........
1969
1990
1979
Low-trend
High-trend I
High-trend II
Low-trend
High-trend I
High-trend II
629.5
27.8
601.7
13.3
45.5
171.2
100.9
70.3
951 9
29.5
922.4
18.2
55.8
277.2
170.3
106.8
1,329.1
34.9
1,294.2
21.0
58.3
368.0
223.5
144.5
1,490.3
36.5
1,453.8
25.2
70.8
411.6
251.7
159.9
1,621.7
42.0
1,579.7
26.9
75.5
448.4
277.9
170.5
1,613.7
42.1
1,571.6
26.6
75.5
444.2
274.7
169.5
1,732.7
37.6
1,695.1
27.1
76.3
474.6
294.6
180.0
2,002.9
47.0
1,955.9
30.1
87.1
554.3
354.7
199.6
2,004.7
47.3
1,957.4
29.7
88.0
550.9
350.6
200.3
55.4
29.9
11.5
14.0
115.4
42.0
73.4
98.5
83.6
11.8
7.9
92.6
43.4
23.8
25.3
173.6
70.6
103.0
152.9
127.2
16.8
8.1
141.1
55.9
50.3
34.8
248.1
103.4
144.8
227.5
183.3
21.0
25.9
175.7
63.3
73.0
39.4
271.8
114.4
157.4
245.8
205.2
25.1
22.6
187.3
67.9
77.6
41.8
296.1
124.2
171.9
266.9
220.1
26.7
31.8
186.3
67.5
77.2
41.6
294.4
123.5
170.9
266.9
218.9
26.6
32.2
218.7
73.7
99.5
45.5
316.0
132.6
183.4
284.9
239.0
28.5
30.0
244.8
83.8
110.4
50.6
365.0
154.8
210.2
324.7
276.9
31.9
41.1
244.0
83.3
109.8
50.9
366.6
154.6
212.0
329.4
278.1
32.1
38.6
Average annual rate of change
Actual
Projected
1979-85
1959-69
Low-trend
Total private.....................................................
Agriculture ...................................................................
Nonagriculture..............................................................
Mining ...................................................................
Construction..........................................................
Manufacturing .....................................................
Durable goods .................................................
Nondurable goods............................................
Transportation, communications, and public
utilities ..............................................................
Transportation .................................................
Communications...............................................
Public utilities ...................................................
Wholesale and retail tra d e ...................................
Wholesale ........................................................
R e tail................................................................
Finance, insurance, and real estate ....................
Other services2 ...................................................
Government enterprises ......................................
Rest of world and statistical discrepancy ...........
High-trend I
Hign-trend II
Low-trend
High-trend I
High-trend II
4.2
.6
4.4
3.2
2.1
4.9
5.4
4.3
3.4
1.7
3.4
1.4
.4
2.9
2.8
3.1
1.9
.7
2.0
3.1
3.3
1.9
2.0
1.7
3.4
3.1
3.4
4.2
4.4
3.3
3.7
2.8
3.3
3.2
3.3
4.0
4.4
3.2
3.5
2.7
3.1
.6
3.1
1.5
1.5
2.9
3.2
2.4
4.3
2.3
4.4
2.3
2.9
4.3
5.0
3.2
4.4
2.4
4.5
2.2
3.1
4.4
5.0
3.4
5.3
3.8
7.5
6.1
4.2
5.3
3.4
4.5
4.3
3.6
.3
4.3
2.6
7.8
3.2
3.6
3.9
3.5
4.1
3.7
2.3
12.3
3.7
2.1
6.4
2.1
1.5
1.7
1.4
1.3
1.9
3.0
-2 .2
4.8
3.3
7.5
3.1
3.0
3.1
2.9
2.7
3.1
4.1
3.5
4.7
3.2
7.4
3.0
2.9
3.0
2.8
2.7
3.0
4.0
3.7
4.5
3.1
6.4
2.9
3.1
3.0
3.1
3.0
3.1
2.6
4.8
5.5
4.3
7.3
3.9
4.3
4.5
4.1
4.0
4.7
3.6
5.3
5.5
4.3
7.3
4.1
4.5
4.6
4.4
4.3
4.9
3.8
3.7
1Gross product originating represents the value added by an industry after costs of materials
and secondary products made In other industries have been subtracted from total output.
2.5 percent a year in the low-trend version, compared to
2.4 percent for total private-sector output. Correspond
ing figures for the high-trend version are 4.2 to 4.3 per
cent for durable goods versus 3.8 percent for the total.
Spurring the rapid increase in durable goods output are
the investment, defense, and personal consumption as
sumptions discussed previously.
Among specific industries in the durable manufactur
ing sector projected to enjoy substantial output growth
are computers; optical equipment; construction, mining,
and oilfield machinery; typewriters and other office ma
chines; electronic components; material handling equip
ment; photographic equipment; and medical and dental
instruments.
The computer industry, in fact, is expected to lead all
industries studied in terms of output increase. As is well
known, output of computer equipment has burgeoned
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
1985-90
1969^79
.
2 Includes private households.
in the past few decades; its 11.6-percent annual rate of
increase between 1958 and 1979 surpassed that of all
other industries studied. Growth came in response to
greater demand for information processing as well as
from expanding applications of computer technology to
such fields as biotechnology and industrial robots. New
uses and markets for computer technology will continue
to spur output in the coming decade, at projected rates
of increase ranging from 7.6 to 10.1 percent a year.
Services output growth in line with rest o f economy. In
1959, service industries accounted for 13.3 percent of
total private output; in 1979 the share was 13.8 percent.
Service industries are expected to hold this steady share
of output throughout the 1980’s in all three scenarios.
Within the service sector, the most rapid output
growth is projected for the amusement and recreation
33
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW August 1981 • Industry Output and Employment Projections
industry and the medical industries. Amusement and
recreation services expanded by about 4.1 percent annu
ally between 1958 and 1979. The same pace is expected
for the 1979-90 period in the low-trend version, while
the high-trend models project average annual growth of
5.4 to 5.6 percent. For the medical industries, an in
crease in output of doctors’ and dentists’ services is
expected to average 3.3 to 4.7 percent a year between
1979 and 1990; output of hospitals is projected to ex
pand by 3.6 to 5.1 percent; and annual output growth
of other medical services is projected to be in the 3.0to 5.0-percent range. These average rates are all higher
than the 2.4- to 3.8-percent range forecast for output of
the total private economy during 1979-90.
Construction pattern mixed. In all scenarios, the con
struction sector grows faster than the all-industries av
erage between 1979 and 1985, but more slowly between
1985 and 1990. In the first half of the decade, rising res
idential construction is projected to stimulate this in
dustry, but in the second half, a dropoff in new home
construction is expected to more than offset the begin
nings of a rebound in business construction of factories,
offices, and public utilities. Shrinking government out
lays for school and road construction are also expected
to dampen the output growth of this sector.
Variations expected in other industry sectors. Trade,
which represented 18.7 percent of total private-sector
output in 1979, is projected to hold about the same
share in 1990. Both the wholesale and retail portions
will grow at about the same pace, although within retail
trade, output of eating and drinking establishments is
Table 3. Low-trend projected output changes for
selected industries, 1979-90
Industry
All private industries............................................................
Fastest-growing:
Computers and peripheral equipment ....................................
Communications, except radio and television........................
Coal mining..............................................................................
Radio and television broadcasting..........................................
Transportation services ..........................................................
Optical and ophthalmic equipment ........................................
Amusement and recreation services ......................................
Electronic components............................................................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral m ining....................................
Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery...........................
Slowest-growing or declining:
Petroleum refining and related products ...............................
Copper ore mining................................................................
Private households ................................................................
Nonferrous metal ores mining.................................................
Logging ..................................................................................
Barber and beauty shops........................................................
Railroad equipment ................................................................
Gas utilities..............................................................................
Tobacco manufacturing ..........................................................
34
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Average annual rate
of output change
(In percent)
2.4
7.6
6.4
6.0
5.7
4.3
4.2
4.0
3.9
3.8
3.8
-1.6
- .3
- .3
- .3
.0
.0
expected to expand more rapidly than that of other re
tail businesses.
Output of the mining sector is projected to keep pace
with total private output after decades of slower-thanaverage growth. The rapid increase projected for coal
production is expected to outweigh the minimal growth
assumed for crude oil production and the absolute de
clines anticipated in copper mining and nonferrous ores
mining. In addition to coal, above-average domestic
output gains are also projected for iron ores and chemi
cal mining.
Table 3 summarizes the low-path industry output
forecast, showing the most- and least-rapidly growing
or declining industries for 1979-90. In the high-trend
versions (which assume more purchases of durable
equipment), transportation services, amusement and
recreation services, electronic components, and chemical
mining drop off the list of the 10 fastest-growing indus
tries (but remain within the top 20), and are replaced
by those manufacturing radios and televisions, typewrit
ers and other office equipment, material handling equip
ment, and telephone and telegraph apparatus.
Industry employment
Employment projections at the industry level are
derived from the projections of output by industry, but
the two are far from strictly parallel. The differences
stem from the varying estimates of labor productivity
by industry and of expected changes in the average
workweek. Thus, although output in the low-trend ver
sion is projected to decline in only 4 of the 150 indus
tries studied, employment drops are expected for 33
industries as a result of expected productivity growth in
the private economy. In high-trend version I, only two
industries experience output declines, but 24 show em
ployment reductions. For the high-trend II case, output
drops in two industries but employment falls in 30. (See
table 4.)
The projected upturn in productivity is somewhat off
set by a continued decline in the average workweek.
Average weekly hours in the private sector dropped
from 39.9 in 1959 to 38.3 in 1969, and further, to 36.6,
in 1979. By 1990, hours paid are projected to average
35.0 a week in the low-trend model and 35.1 in the
high-trend models.
While employment is expected to grow more slowly
than in the recent past, at least in the low-trend version
and high-trend II (which are based on a smaller labor
force than high-trend I), the distribution of employment
among major industry sectors in all versions will con
tinue to change largely in line with past trends. (See ta
bles 5 and 6.)
.1
.5
.5
Services continue to pace growth. The fastest-growing
employment sector is projected to be services, as it has
Table 4.
Employment by industry, actual and projected, selected years, 1959-90
[In thousands]
Projected
Actual
Low-trend
Industry
Hlgh-trend 1
Average
annual
rate of
change,
1979-90
High-trend II
Average
annual
rate of
change,
1979-90
Average
annual
rate of
change,
1979-90
1959
1969
1979
1990
Agriculture:
Dairy and poultry products......................................
Meat and livestock products....................................
Cotton .....................................................................
Food and feed grains...............................................
Other agricultural products......................................
1,551
979
565
960
1,436
814
756
178
635
1,111
511
528
142
639
995
354
452
121
591
813
-3 .3
-1 .4
-1.4
-.7
-1 .8
395
506
136
674
920
-2 .3
-.4
-.3
.5
-.7
411
524
135
661
903
-2 .0
-.1
- .5
.3
- .9
Mining:
Iron and ferroalloy ores m ining...............................
Copper ore mining...................................................
Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper . . . .
Coal mining..............................................................
Crude petroleum and natural g a s ...........................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying......................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral m ining....................
33
23
31
201
200
105
19
30
34
25
138
157
99
18
30
33
39
265
211
103
25
34
34
40
411
311
103
31
1.3
.4
.3
4.1
3.6
.1
2.1
38
37
42
472
325
109
33
2.2
1.2
.8
5.4
4.0
.5
2.8
33
36
40
412
307
100
32
1.0
.8
.3
4.1
3.5
- .3
2.1
Construction:
Maintenance and repair construction......................
New construction.....................................................
662
3,163
792
3,594
1,292
4,605
1,423
5,497
.9
1.6
1,532
5,977
1.6
2.4
1,460
5,643
1.1
1.9
Manufacturing:
Durable goods:
Ordnance ............................................................
Complete guided missiles and space vehicles ..
Logging................................................................
Sawmills and planing mills .................................
Other millwork, plywood, and wood products . ..
Wooden containers ............................................
Household furniture ............................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household ...........
Glass ...................................................................
Cement and concrete products...........................
50
94
143
305
261
43
259
124
153
209
175
107
138
230
310
36
316
153
188
228
75
81
148
237
386
25
331
176
205
254
102
70
113
222
344
20
379
180
239
253
2.8
-1 .3
-2.4
- .6
-1 .0
-1 .6
1.2
.2
1.4
-.0
111
72
120
231
370
22
408
214
252
267
3.7
- .9
-1.8
-.2
-.4
-1 .0
1.9
1.8
1.9
.5
98
77
108
215
374
22
390
194
242
261
2.5
_,5
-2.8
-.9
-.3
-1 .3
1.5
.9
1.5
.2
Structural clay products......................................
Pottery and related products...............................
Other stone and clay products ...........................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products.............
Iron and steel foundries and forgings..................
Primary copper and copper products..................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products.........
Primary nonferrous metals and metal products ..
Metal containers .................................................
Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s ...........
78
49
125
588
269
137
111
78
75
71
64
45
140
644
312
160
153
93
87
76
52
51
164
569
324
159
169
90
81
76
44
57
171
583
375
163
173
111
91
100
-1.5
1.1
.4
.2
1.4
.3
.3
2.0
1.1
2.6
45
60
186
586
387
170
181
114
99
105
-1 .2
1.5
1.2
.3
1.6
.7
.6
2.2
1.9
3.0
43
55
181
583
377
165
170
108
95
103
-1 .7
.7
.9
.2
1.4
.3
.0
1.7
1.4
2.8
Fabricated structural metal products..................
Screw machine products ....................................
Metal stampings .................................................
Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware .........
Other fabricated metal products ........................
Engines, turbines, and generators......................
Farm machinery...................................................
Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery . . . .
Material handling equipment...............................
Metalworking machinery......................................
344
88
189
135
231
90
128
162
65
251
440
114
255
165
315
112
141
202
95
347
538
117
243
186
378
145
183
282
113
379
583
140
266
226
443
149
217
369
148
411
.7
1.6
.8
1.8
1.5
.3
1.6
2.4
2.5
.7
640
151
290
240
472
175
239
474
183
547
1.6
2.4
1.6
2.4
2.0
1.7
2.5
4.8
4.5
3.4
601
143
277
227
461
160
224
369
150
424
1.0
1.9
1.2
1.8
1.8
.9
1.9
2.4
2.6
1.0
Special industry machinery.................................
General industrial machinery...............................
Other nonelectrical machinery.............................
Computers and peripheral equipment ...............
Typewriters and other office equipm ent.............
Service industry machines .................................
Electric transmission equipment ........................
Electrical industrial apparatus.............................
Household appliances ........................................
Electric lighting and wiring .................................
164
221
166
111
28
97
157
176
157
134
206
291
246
224
52
147
207
223
187
205
205
329
309
350
48
188
219
251
180
226
227
393
344
552
77
199
236
307
192
309
1.0
1.6
1.0
4.2
4.5
.6
.7
1.9
.6
2.9
234
430
381
614
89
226
277
355
198
335
1.2
2.5
1.9
5.2
5.8
1.7
2.2
3.2
.9
3.7
231
390
373
555
73
208
247
315
190
324
1.1
1.6
1.7
4.3
3.8
.9
1.1
2.1
.5
3.3
Radio and television receiving sets ....................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus ..................
Radio and communication equipment..................
Electronic components........................................
Other electrical machinery and equipment.........
Motor vehicles.....................................................
A irc ra ft................................................................
Ship and boat building and repair ......................
Railroad equipment ............................................
Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a r ts ........................
114
105
252
213
111
696
722
151
41
9
156
146
409
394
125
912
805
193
51
14
115
169
357
525
180
996
632
228
74
20
98
201
424
666
174
921
768
271
65
24
-1 .4
1.6
1.6
2.2
-.3
-.7
1.8
1.6
-1 .0
1.8
120
231
433
669
211
1,049
839
305
81
30
.5
2.9
1.8
2.2
1.5
.5
2.6
2.7
.8
4.0
116
229
418
669
176
940
779
279
81
32
.0
2.8
1.5
2.2
- .2
- .5
1.9
1.9
.8
4.4
Other transportation equipment...........................
23
89
105
120
1.2
147
3.1
121
1.3
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
1990
1990
35
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW August 1981 • Industry Output and Employment Projections
Table 4.
Continued— Employment by industry, actual and projected, selected years, 1959-90
[In thousands]
Projected
Actual
High-trend I
Low-trend
Industry
Average
annual
rate of
change,
1979-90
High-trend II
Average
annual
rate of
change,
1979-90
Average
annual
rate of
change,
1979-90
1959
1969
1979
1990
Scientific and controlling instruments..................
Medical and dental Instruments...........................
Optical and ophthalmic equipment......................
Photographic equipment and supplies ...............
Watches, clocks, and dock-operated devices . . .
Jewelry and silverware........................................
Musical instruments and sporting goods.............
Other manufactured products.............................
166
45
85
69
30
67
116
229
195
82
75
111
35
78
149
233
218
141
82
134
28
93
145
244
252
189
92
144
25
91
164
263
1.4
2.7
1.1
.7
-.7
-.2
1.2
.7
296
224
102
165
28
92
175
269
2.8
4.3
2.0
1.9
.3
-.1
1.8
.9
246
183
97
152
25
91
175
262
1.1
2.4
1.5
1.2
- .9
- .2
1.7
.6
Nondurable goods:
Meat products.....................................................
Dairy products.....................................................
Canned and frozen fo o d s ....................................
Grain mill products...............................................
Bakery products .................................................
Sugar ...................................................................
Confectionery products ......................................
Alcoholic beveraoes............................................
Soft drinKs and flavorings....................................
Other food products............................................
324
326
249
139
313
38
79
107
111
144
344
260
291
137
286
36
87
97
142
151
364
189
306
146
240
30
79
88
151
163
379
158
289
154
204
33
70
62
156
147
.4
-1 .6
-.5
.5
-1.5
1.1
-1 .0
-3.1
.3
- .9
403
168
307
165
217
34
75
64
166
157
.9
-1.0
.0
1.2
-.9
1.4
- .5
-2 .7
.9
- .3
372
147
323
151
209
33
73
65
152
156
.2
-2 .2
.5
.3
-1.2
1.0
- .7
-2 .7
.1
- .4
Tobacco manufactures........................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread mills .............................
Floor covering mills ............................................
Other textile mill products....................................
Hosiery and knit goods........................................
Apparel................................................................
Other fabricated textile products........................
Paper products ...................................................
Paperboard containers and b oxe s......................
Newspaper printing and publishing ....................
95
619
39
74
221
1,100
143
415
175
328
83
616
58
82
251
1,244
182
483
231
376
70
532
60
70
229
1,132
200
493
215
435
64
534
62
74
238
1,190
233
546
221
506
- .7
.0
.3
.6
.4
.5
1.4
.9
.3
1.4
67
545
68
82
261
1,319
251
548
233
549
- .3
.2
1.3
1.5
1.2
1.4
2.1
1.0
.8
2.1
67
529
64
73
232
1,205
236
545
230
526
- .4
-.1
.6
.4
.1
.6
1.5
.9
.6
1.7
Periodical and book printing and publishing . . . .
Other printing and publishing...............................
Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals.........
Agricultural chemicals ........................................
Other chemical products ....................................
Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r...............
Synthetic fibers ...................................................
D ru g s ...................................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations ........................
Paints and allied products...................................
156
446
260
54
82
81
79
106
89
62
210
550
296
65
124
108
132
143
123
72
230
641
323
70
100
101
118
194
140
69
303
664
417
73
113
97
93
228
145
71
2.5
.3
2.4
.5
1.2
- .3
-2.1
1.5
.4
.3
329
717
426
75
118
107
101
247
162
74
3.3
1.0
2.6
.7
1.5
.6
-1.4
2.2
1.3
.7
305
693
425
71
122
106
102
232
152
69
2.6
.7
2.5
.1
1.8
.5
-1.3
1.6
.8
.1
Petroleum refining and related products.............
Tires and inner tubes ..........................................
Miscellaneous rubber and plastics products . . . .
Other plastics products ......................................
Leather tanning and Industrial leather ...............
Leather products including footwear ..................
217
105
178
94
36
341
182
119
162
320
29
316
210
122
167
493
20
234
184
126
179
658
14
212
-1 .2
.3
.7
2.7
-2.7
-.9
201
129
181
669
15
226
- .4
.5
.8
2.8
-2 .2
- .3
184
126
183
645
15
214
-1 .2
.3
.8
2.5
-2 .6
-.8
Transportation:
Railroad transportation............................................
Local transit and intercity buses .............................
Truck transportation.................................................
Water transportation ...............................................
Air transportation.....................................................
Pipeline transportation ............................................
Transportation services ..........................................
930
311
1,001
239
184
24
70
651
315
1,214
234
357
18
111
561
303
1,558
223
442
20
192
4 «2
3os
1,922
196
493
22
240
-1.7
1.4
1.9
-1.1
1.0
1.1
2.1
493
364
2,052
204
525
22
262
-1 .2
1.7
2.5
- .8
1.6
1.2
2.9
468
339
1,906
183
497
22
246
-1 .6
1.0
1.8
-1 .8
1.1
.7
2.3
Communications:
Radio and television broadcasting...........................
Communications except radio and television .........
90
749
131
919
193
1,121
266
1,280
3.0
1.2
277
1,454
3.4
2.4
267
1,300
3.0
1.4
Public utilities:
Electric utilities, public and private...........................
Gas utilities, excluding public .................................
Water and sanitary services, excluding public . . . .
430
215
61
460
220
88
606
223
93
650
242
108
.6
.8
1.4
758
274
128
2.1
1.9
2.9
654
235
114
.7
.5
1.8
Trade:
Wholesale trade .....................................................
Eating and drinking places ......................................
Retail trade, except eating and drinking places . ..
3,349
1,960
7,936
4,163
2,812
9,729
5,501
4,924
11,952
6,366
6,836
13,830
1.3
3.0
1.3
6,964
7,179
15,088
2.2
3.5
2.1
6,412
6,843
14,190
1.4
3.0
1.6
Finance, insurance, and real estate:
Banking ...................................................................
Credit agencies and financial brokers ....................
Insurance ................................................................
Real e s ta te ..............................................................
644
389
1,137
753
987
652
1,370
855
1,492
898
1,753
1,371
1,981
1,174
2,120
1,732
2.6
2.5
1.7
2.1
2,013
1,329
2,193
1,926
2.8
3.6
2.1
3.1
1,957
1,303
2,133
1,716
2.5
3.4
1.8
2.1
36
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
1990
1990
'
Table 4.
Continued — Employment by industry, actual and projected, selected years, 1959-90
[In thousands]
Actual
Projected
High-trend 1
Low-trend
Industry
Average
annual
rate of
change,
1979-90
High-trend II
Average
annual
rate of
change,
1979-90
Average
annual
rate of
change,
1979 90
1959
1969
1979
1990
Services:
Hotels and lodging places ......................................
Personal and repair services .................................
Barber and beauty shop s........................................
Miscellaneous business services.............................
Advertising ..............................................................
Miscellaneous professional services ......................
Automobile repair ...................................................
Motion pictures ........................................................
Amusement and recreation services......................
Doctors’ and dentists’ services...............................
868
1,157
538
814
121
746
422
228
372
605
1,065
1,232
634
1,691
134
1,046
569
248
497
806
1,543
1,278
613
3,144
166
1,720
837
308
761
1,317
1,887
1,281
649
4,314
192
2,179
1,168
315
1,029
1,896
1.8
.0
.5
2.9
1.3
2.2
3.1
.2
2.8
3.4
2,126
1,555
770
4,757
213
2,413
1,208
329
1,042
1,982
3.0
1.8
2.1
3.8
2.3
3.1
3.4
.6
2.9
3.8
2,035
1,424
733
4,509
198
2,292
1,148
306
1,019
1,875
2.5
1.0
1.6
3.3
1.6
2.6
2.9
-.1
2.7
3.3
Hospitals ................................................................
Other medical services ..........................................
Educational services (private).................................
Nonprofit organizations ..........................................
Forestry and fishery products.................................
Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services.............
Private households .................................................
974
283
839
1,331
47
261
2,574
1,776
652
1,229
1,764
41
296
2,322
2,621
1,403
1,683
2,244
76
447
1,723
3,967
2,312
2,098
2,638
78
542
1,576
3.8
4.6
2.0
1.5
.3
1.8
-.8
4,206
2,553
2,149
2,839
82
593
1,593
4.4
5.6
2.2
2.2
.8
2.6
-.7
3,954
2,403
2,075
2,722
76
543
1,587
3.8
5.0
1.9
1.8
.1
1.8
- .7
Government enterprises:
Post O ffic e ..............................................................
Other Federal enterprises ......................................
Local government passenger tra n s it......................
Other state and local government enterprises . . . .
574
104
71
225
732
152
87
351
661
153
130
492
675
202
185
695
.2
2.6
3.3
3.2
700
236
200
774
.5
4.0
4.0
4.2
680
207
190
701
.3
2.3
3.5
3.3
been in the past. In 1959, service industries accounted
for 13.6 percent of total employment; by 1979, that
share had risen to 19.4 percent. It is expected that in
1990, service industries will account for about 22 per
cent of all jobs in the economy.
Leading the advance among service industries will be
health care. Employment in doctors’ and dentists’ of
fices and in hospitals is expected to grow faster than the
all-industries average, but the most rapid gains are pro
jected for other related medical care services, such as
nursing homes, medical laboratories, therapists’ offices,
and nurses’ services. Between 1958 and 1979, employ
ment in these establishments expanded by 8.8 percent a
year, the fastest growth rate for any industry in the
economy. During the 1980’s, other medical services em
ployment will again post the fastest rate of growth un
der all scenarios: 4.6 percent a year in the low-trend
model, 5.6 percent in high-trend I, and 5.0 percent in
high-trend II.V
Trade will offer most new jobs. The trade sector is
expected to continue to increase its share of all jobs,
but within the sector the pattern of job growth varies.
Wholesale trade is projected to show only modest gains,
while eating and drinking establishments in the retail
portion enjoy more rapid growth. Although the antici
pated rate of job increase for eating and drinking places
is higher than for many other industries in the econo
my, it is still below the historical rate, due to an as
sumption of more rapid productivity gains. Other retail
trade establishments are projected to average job
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
1990
1990
growth at about the same pace as the total private
economy.
The greatest increase in employment opportunities
over the next 11 years is expected to be in the trade sec
tor, primarily because of its initial large size. Between
4.7 and 6.9 million new jobs are projected to appear in
wholesale and retail trade establishments between 1979
and 1990.
Manufacturing growth to pick up. Manufacturing jobs
will grow by 0.8 percent a year during 1979-90 in the
low-trend version, 1.6 percent in high-trend I, and 1.0
percent in high-trend II, slower than the rates projected
for total jobs but faster than manufacturing sector
growth in recent years. Between 1969 and 1979, manu
facturing employment rose by only 0.5 percent a year,
and its share of total jobs dropped from 23.7 percent to
20.6 percent. Manufacturing will account for between
19.2 and 19.5 percent of all jobs in 1990.
The projected turnaround in the rate of manufactur
ing job growth is more pronounced for durable goods
manufacturing than for nondurables, reflecting assump
tions of strong demand for consumer durables and for
producers’ durable equipment, especially in the hightrend versions. Employment in durable manufacturing
industries will expand by 1.0 percent a year during 1979
-90 in the low-trend model, 1.9 percent in high-trend I,
and 1.2 percent in high-trend II. Annual growth aver
aged only 0.7 percent in the 1969-79 period.
Within the durable goods sector, rapid job gains are
projected for industries manufacturing typewriters and
37
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW August 1981 • Industry Output and Employment Projections
other office equipment; computers; electric lighting and
wiring equipment; and medical and dental instruments.
Employment in guided missiles and space vehicles is
projected to decline between 1979 and 1990, despite
output growth related to defense demand, because of
productivity advances.
In the motor vehicles industry, the high-trend as
sumption is for employment to rebound from the layoffs
of 1980, but under low-trend assumptions, the recovery
will not be as complete. In 1977, 1978, and 1979, em
Table 5.
ployment in the industry hovered around the 1 million
mark. In 1980, however, it plunged to 776,000. In the
high-trend I case, these lost jobs are expected to be
recouped and employment is projected to be 1.049 mil
lion in 1990. In the low-trend case, 1990 motor vehicle
employment will be about 921,000.
The number of jobs in basic steel declined steadily
during the 1970’s, but is projected to stabilize over the
next 10 years. Employment is expected to rise slightly
from the 1979 level of 569,000 to between 583,000 and
Employment by major sector, actual and projected, selected years, 1959-90
Thousands of jobs
Actual
Projected
Industry sector
1985
1959
Total em ployment.............................................
General government1 .................................................
F ed era l.....................................................................
M ilitary...................................................................
Civilian...................................................................
State and local ........................................................
Education..............................................................
Noneducation........................................................
Total private ................................................................
Agriculture................................................................
Nonagriculture..........................................................
Mining ...................................................................
Construction..........................................................
Manufacturing .....................................................
Durable goods .................................................
Nondurable goods.............................................
Transportation, communications, and public
utilities ..............................................................
Transportation .................................................
Communications...............................................
Public utilities ...................................................
Wholesale and retail tra d e ....................................
Finance, insurance, and real estate ....................
Other services .....................................................
Government enterprises ......................................
Private households...............................................
1969
1990
1979
Low-trend
High-trend I
High-trend II
Low-trend
High-trend I
High-trend II
123,958
17,886
70,512
9.973
86,278
14,818
104,120
16,523
113,775
17,587
118,981
17,587
114,935
17,441
121,971
18,106
130,665
18,106
4 ,2 8 9
5 ,6 1 4
4 ,2 2 3
4 ,3 5 5
4 ,3 5 5
4 ,2 0 9
4 ,4 2 9
4 ,4 2 9
4 ,2 0 9
2,552
1,737
5,684
2,687
2,997
60,539
5,491
55,048
612
3,825
16,985
9,560
7,425
3,506
2,108
9,204
5,036
4,168
71,460
3,494
67,966
501
4,386
20,469
12,081
8,388
2,103
2,120
12,300
6,642
5,658
87,597
2,815
84,782
706
5,897
21,433
13,009
8,424
2,129
2,226
13,232
6,679
6,553
96,188
2,621
93,566
898
6,747
22,609
13,833
8,775
2,129
2,226
13,232
6,679
6,553
101,394
2,921
98,472
946
7,080
23,855
14,644
9,210
2,129
2,080
13,232
6,679
6,553
97,494
2,922
94,572
896
6,810
22,895
14,036
8,859
2,129
2,300
13,677
6,513
7,164
103,865
2,333
101,531
967
6,920
23,476
14,560
8,916
2,129
2,300
13,677
6,513
7,164
112,559
2,633
109,925
1,059
7,509
25,520
16,045
9,475
2,129
2,080
13,677
6,513
7,164
106,072
2,634
103,438
959
7,104
23,905
14,872
9,033
4,304
2,759
839
706
13,245
2,923
9,606
974
2,574
4,718
2,900
1,050
768
16,704
3,864
13,680
1,322
2,322
5,535
3,299
1,314
922
22,377
5,514
20,161
1,436
1,723
5,903
3,488
1,447
968
24,868
6,096
23,249
1,606
1,586
6,213
3,627
1,535
1,051
26,150
6,427
24,497
1,681
1,618
5,898
3,468
1,459
971
24,961
6,252
23,642
1,625
1,592
6,239
3,693
1,546
1,000
27,032
7,008
26,553
1,758
1,576
6,815
3,924
1,731
1,160
29,231
7,464
28,824
1,911
1,593
6,241
3,671
1,567
1,003
27,445
7,108
27,313
1,778
1,587
Percent distribution
Actual
Projected
1985
9
1959
Total employment............................................
General government1 .................................................
Federal .....................................................................
Military...................................................................
Civilian...................................................................
State and local .......................................................
Education..............................................................
Noneducation........................................................
Total private ................................................................
Agriculture................................................................
Nonagriculture..........................................................
Mining ...................................................................
Construction..........................................................
Manufacturing .....................................................
Durable goods .................................................
Nondurable goods.............................................
Transportation, communications, and public
utilities ..............................................................
Transportation .................................................
Communications...............................................
Public utilities ...................................................
Wholesale and retail trad e....................................
Finance, insurance, and real estate ....................
Other services .....................................................
Government enterprises ......................................
Private households...............................................
1National Income Accounts basis.
38
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
1969
1990
1979
Low-trend
High-trend I
High-trend II
Low-trend
High-trend I
High-trend II
100.0
14.1
6.1
3.6
2.5
8.1
3.8
4.3
85.9
7.8
78.1
.9
5.4
24.1
13.6
10.5
100.0
17.2
6.5
4.1
2.4
10.7
5.8
4.8
82.8
4.0
78.8
.6
5.1
23.7
14.0
9.7
100.0
15.9
4.1
2.0
2.0
11.8
6.4
5.4
84.1
2.7
81.4
.7
5.8
20.6
12.5
8.1
100.0
15.5
3.8
1.9
2.0
11.6
5.9
5.8
84.5
2.3
82.2
.8
5.9
19.9
12.2
7.7
100.0
14.8
3.7
1.8
1.9
11.1
5.6
5.5
85.2
2.5
828
.8
6.0
20.0
12.3
7.7
100.0
15.2
3.7
1.9
1.8
11.5
5.8
5.7
84.8
2.5
82.3
.8
5.9
19.9
12.2
7.7
100.0
14.8
3.6
1.7
1.9
11.2
5.3
5.9
85.2
1.9
83.2
8
5.7
19.2
11.9
7.3
100.0
13.9
3.4
1.6
1.8
10.5
5.0
5.5
86.1
2.0
84.1
8
5.7
19.5
12.3
7.3
100.0
14.4
3.4
1.7
1.7
11.0
5.3
5.8
85.6
2.1
83.4
.8
5.7
19.3
12.0
7.3
6.1
3.9
1.2
1.0
18.8
4.1
13.6
1.4
3.7
5.5
3.4
1.2
.9
19.4
4.5
15.9
1.5
2.7
5.3
3.2
1.3
.9
21.5
5.3
19.4
1.4
1.7
5.2
3.1
1.3
.9
21.9
5.4
20.4
1.4
1.4
5.2
3.0
1.3
.9
22.0
5.4
20.6
1.4
1.4
5.1
3.0
1.3
.8
21.7
5.4
20.6
1.4
1.4
5.1
3.0
1.3
.8
22.2
5.7
21.8
1.4
1.3
5.2
3.0
1.3
.9
22.4
5.7
22.1
1.5
1.2
5.0
3.0
1.3
.9
22.1
5.7
22.0
1.4
1.3
Table 6.
Average annual percent change in employment by major sector, actual and projected, selected years, 1959-90
Actual
Projected
Industry sector
1979-85
1959-69
Total employment............................................
General government1 .................................................
Federal .....................................................................
M-litary...................................................................
Civilian...................................................................
State and local .......................................................
Education..............................................................
Noneducation........................................................
Total private ................................................................
Agriculture................................................................
Nonagriculture..........................................................
Mining ...................................................................
Construction..........................................................
Manufacturing .....................................................
Durable goods .................................................
Nondurable goods............................................
Transportation, communications, and public
utilities.................................................................
Transportation .................................................
Communications...............................................
Public utilities ...................................................
Wholesale and retail trad e...................................
Finance, insurance, and real estate ....................
Other services .....................................................
Government enterprises ......................................
Private households...............................................
1985-90
1969^79
Low-trend
High-trend 1
High-trend II
Low-trend
High-trend I
High-trend II
2.0
4.0
2.7
3.2
2.0
4.9
6.5
3.4
1.7
-4.4
2.1
-2 .0
1.4
1.9
2.4
1.2
1.9
1.1
-2.8
-5 .0
.1
2.9
2.8
3.1
2.1
-2.1
2.3
3.5
3.0
.5
.7
.0
1.5
1.0
.5
.2
.8
1.2
.1
2.5
1.6
-1 .2
1.7
4.1
2.3
.9
1.0
.7
2.3
1.0
.5
.2
.8
1.2
.1
2.5
2.5
.6
2.5
5.0
3.1
1.8
2.0
1.5
1.7
.9
.0
.2
-.3
1.2
.1
2.5
1.8
.6
1.8
4.0
2.4
1.1
1.3
.8
1.4
.6
.3
.0
.7
.7
-.5
1.8
1.5
-2 .3
1.6
1.5
.5
.8
1.0
.3
1.9
.6
.3
.0
.7
.7
-.5
1.8
2.1
-2.1
2.2
2.3
1.2
1.4
1.8
.6
1.5
.5
.0
.0
.0
.7
- .5
1.8
1.7
-2.1
1.8
1.4
.8
.9
1.2
.4
.9
.5
2.3
.8
2.3
2.8
3.6
3.1
-1 .0
1.6
1.3
2.3
1.8
3.0
3.6
4.0
.8
-2.9
1.1
.9
1.6
.8
1.8
1.7
2.4
1.9
-1.4
1.9
1.6
2.6
2.2
2.6
2.6
3.3
2.7
-1 .0
1.1
.8
1.8
.9
1.8
2.1
2.7
2.1
-1.3
1.1
1.1
1.3
.7
1.7
2.8
2.7
1.8
-.1
1.9
1.6
2.4
2.0
2.3
3.0
3.3
2.6
- .3
1.1
1.1
1.4
.6
1.9
2.6
2.9
1.8
-.1
1 National Income Accounts basis.
586,00 by 1990. An increase in steel jobs is projected
despite an assumption that imports will account for a
larger share of total steel output, because demand for
basic steel products is expected to be strong in the next
decade as the result of rapid investment growth.
The projected increase in nondurable goods employ
ment, although positive compared to the zero growth
posted during 1969-79, is much slower than the all
industries average. Nondurable goods industries ac
counted for 8.1 percent of all jobs in 1979, but are
expected to represent only 7.3 percent in 1990.
In fact, 5 of the 10 industries with the greatest rate of
projected job loss are in the nondurable goods sector.
(See table 7.) The five industries have already experi
enced job declines either because of falling demand or
rapid productivity growth, and these trends are ex
pected to continue. Sluggish demand for leather tanning
services and processed foods (especially dairy and bak
ery products) is expected to cause employment to fall;
for alcoholic beverages and synthetic fibers, productivity
gains are assumed to more than offset rapidly rising de
mand.
Employment in textiles will remain essentially
unchanged from the 1979 level of 892,000 in the lowtrend and high-trend II versions, and rise by about
65,(300 jobs in high-trend I. Demand for textile prod
ucts is projected to expand in all models, but imports
are expected to hold a 6.7- to 7.5-percent market share
1990, somewhat larger than at present.
Jobs in apparel are projected to rise from 1.1 million
to between 1.2 and 1.3 million between 1979 and .1990.
Demand will increase with disposable incomes, out
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weighing the assumption that the import share of total
apparel output will rise to between 14 and 16 percent.
Public sector growth will halt. Although most major eco
nomic sectors are expected to follow past trends in
terms of shares of total jobs, State and local govern
ments are an exception. Their employment share rose
from 8.1 percent of the total in 1959 to 11.8 percent in
1979, but by 1990, it will account for 11.2 percent of all
jobs in the low-trend version and 10.5 percent in hightrend I. The slow growth is expected to result primarily
from reductions in school enrollment, which will more
than offset gains expected in the public health and hos
pitals field.
Federal employment is assumed to change only
slightly from the 1979 level, and in one case (high-trend
II) is projected to decline. Government employment in
high-trend I, the model with the largest labor force, is
the same as in the low-trend model because of assump
tions that investment and tax policies will allow the pri
vate sector to completely absorb the larger labor force.
Other sectors show mixed patterns. Finance, insurance,
and real estate employment is projected to continue to
rise as a share of total jobs during the 1980’s, despite
slower than average output growth. Demand for credit
and banking services, in particular, is expected to stimu
late employment growth in this area despite sluggish
demand for real estate services.
The rate of employment increase in construction is
projected to parallel the output trends discussed earlier,
accelerating in the first half of the decade in response to
39
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW August 1981 • Industry Output and Employment Projections
Table 7. Low-trend projected employment changes for
selected Industries, 1979-90
Fastest growing
Other medical services.....................................................................
Typewriters and other office equipment ..........................................
Computers and peripheral equipment...............................................
Coal mining .......................................................................................
Hospitals ...........................................................................................
Crude petroleum and natural g a s .....................................................
Doctors’ and dentists’ services ........................................................
Local government passenger transit.................................................
Other state and local government enterprises.................................
Automobile re p a ir..............................................................................
Most rapidly declining
Dairy and poultry products ..............................................................
Alcoholic beverages .........................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial leather...............................................
Logging.............................................................................................
Synthetic fibers ................................................................................
Other agricultural products ..............................................................
Railroad transportation .....................................................................
Wooden containers............................................................................
Dairy products (processed)..............................................................
Bakery products................................................................................
Largest job gains
Eating and drinking places................................................................
Retail trade, except eating and drinking places ...............................
Hospitals...........................................................................................
Miscellaneous business services .....................................................
Other medical services.....................................................................
New construction ..............................................................................
Wholesale tra d e ................................................................................
Doctors’ and dentists’ services ........................................................
Banking.............................................................................................
Educational services (private) ..........................................................
Average annual
rate of
job growth
4.6
4.5
4.2
4.1
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.1
Average annual
rate of
job decline
-3.3
-3.1
-2 .7
-2 .4
-2.1
-1 .8
-1 .7
-1 .6
-1 .6
-1 .5
Employment gain
(in thousands)
1,912
1,878
1,347
1,171
909
892
866
580
490
416
strong housing demand, then slowing somewhat during
the second half as demand for residential construction
tapers. Between 1.0 million (low-trend) and 1.6 million
(high-trend I) new jobs will be added in the construc
tion industry between 1979 and 1990.
Farm employment is expected to continue to decline
through the next decade, but the drop is not expected
to be as rapid as in the last few decades; in the hightrend versions there is even a small gain between 1979
and 1985. Past productivity advances in agriculture
have been very great: Between 1959 and 1979, output
per hour of all persons in the farm sector rose by al
most 5 percent annually, compared with about 2 or 3
percent for the private nonfarm economy before 1973
and less than 1 percent a year thereafter. These ad
vances have already begun to slow, however, and the
continued tapering of increases in farm productivity
during the 1980’s is expected to moderate the rate of
decline in farm jobs.
Mining job growth above average. The largest industries
within the mining sector in terms of jobs— coal mining
and crude petroleum and natural gas extraction— are
expected to experience employment changes in line with
40
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the shifting energy picture. Coal mining is projected to
be one of the fastest growing of all industries during the
next decade. Over the past 30 years, employment in the
coal industry has experienced major cycles. Following
severe job cutbacks between 1950 and 1965, employ
ment stabilized during 1965-69, then expanded steadily
over the next 10 years. Although a shift from under
ground mines to more capital-intensive surface mines
will cause output per worker-hour to grow faster in the
coal industry than in the private nonfarm economy as a
whole, employment is expected to continue to rise rap
idly in response to increased demand for coal. Annual
growth of 4.1 to 5.4 percent is projected for 1979-90.
In the crude petroleum and natural gas drilling indus
try, employment is expected to rise faster than domestic
output, as exploration for new oil creates demand for
more workers but yields a decreasing rate of return.
Previous projections for 1990
In April 1979, BLS published its first look at industry
output and employment for the year 1990, in the form
of a base case and a high-employment alternative. The
first case, intended as a base-line projection, incorporat
ed a moderately expanding labor force, a relatively slow
decline in inflation and unemployment, and mod
erate government expenditures. The high-employment
alternative assumed a much larger labor force, and a
heavy emphasis on job creation which would lower the
unemployment rate. What are the differences between
Table 8. Comparison of previous and current
employment projections for 1990
[In thousands]
Industry sector
Total employment ...............
General government1 ......................
Federal..........................................
Military ......................................
Civilian ......................................
State and local .............................
Education .................................
Noneducation ...........................
Total private......................................
Agriculture ....................................
Nonagriculture...............................
Mining........................................
Construction .............................
Manufacturing ..........................
Durable g o o d s......................
Nondurable goods ...............
Transportation, communications,
and public utilities ..................
Transportation ......................
Communications....................
Public utilities........................
Wholesale and retail trade . . . .
Finance, insurance, and real
estate ...................................
Other services...........................
Government enterprises...........
Private households....................
1National Income Accounts basis.
Previous
Current
Base
case
Low-trend
High-trend
I
High-trend
II
121,204
18,066
4,389
2,089
2,300
13,677
6,513
7,164
103,138
2,634
100,504
787
6,033
23,882
14,692
9,189
121,971
18,106
4,429
2,129
2,300
13,677
6,513
7,164
103,865
2,333
101,531
967
6,920
23,476
14,560
8,916
130,665
18,106
4,429
2,129
2,300
13,677
6,513
7,164
112,559
2,633
109,925
1,059
7,509
25,520
16,045
9,475
123,958
17,886
4,209
2,129
2,080
13,677
6,513
7,164
106,072
2,634
103,438
959
7,104
23,905
14,872
9,033
5,658
3,332
1,473
1,104
27,370
6,239
3,693
1,546
1,000
27,032
6,815
3,924
1,731
1,160
29,231
6,241
3,671
1,567
1,003
27,445
6,695
26,742
1,779
1,307
7,008
26,553
1,758
1,576
7,464
28,824
1,911
1,593
7,108
27,313
1,778
1,587
those initial 1990 forecasts and the present ones?
One important change has been the development of a
range of possible values for 1990 rather than a single
base-line case plus an alternate. The new low-trend and
high-trend I versions are intended to present a band
within which a “base case” might fall.
In addition, estimates of the 1990 civilian labor force
have been revised upward in all of the new scenarios.
(For both 1990 employment projections, BLS prepared
three alternative labor force projections— a low growth
path, a middle growth path, and a high growth path.
The old base case and the new low-trend and hightrend II models were based on the BLS middle labor
force growth path. The old high-employment alternative
and the new high-trend I model were based on the high
labor force growth path.) Between 1977, the last year
for which data were available for the first projections,
and 1979, the last year for which data were available
for the new ones, labor force participation rates of
women have risen faster than expected. Consequently,
the new 1990 labor force projections are higher than the
old ones for all three labor force scenarios:
Low grow th path . . .
M iddle grow th path .
H igh grow th path . .
Old projection
(000’s)
New projection
(000’s)
113,521
119,366
125,603
117,394
122,375
128,123
Somewhat offsetting a larger labor force are new as
sumptions about the unemployment rate in light of the
recent recession; except in the case of the 1990 hightrend I version, the new rates are higher than in the old
projections:
O ld projections: Base c a s e ........................................
H igh-em ploym ent a lter n a tiv e .
N ew projections: L ow -trend ....................................
H igh-trend I ...............................
H igh-trend II ............................
1985
1990
4.7
4.0
7.0
5.5
6.0
4.5
4.0
6.0
4.0
4.5
Military force levels are virtually unchanged in the
new scenarios from those previously assumed. The re
sult is a projection of total employment for 1990 that is
higher than the old base case in all new scenarios:
O ld projections: Base c a s e .....................
H igh-em ploym ent
alternative ............
N ew projections: L ow -trend . . . . . .
H ig h - t r e n d i ...............
H igh-trend II
....
1985
(000's)
1990
(000's)
114,440
121,204
119,627
113,775
118,981
114,935
128,400
121,971
130,665
123,958
At the industry level, the new assumptions raise the
employment projections for most sectors, although the
1978-79 experience has altered the original outlook for
many individual industries. For example, the synthetic
fibers industry was projected to be one of the top 10
job gainers (in terms of rate of growth) in the first set
of projections, but this time ranks among the top 10
losers. Rising prices which curbed demand, and gains in
productivity contributed to this reversal.
The distribution of final demand also changed be
tween the old and new scenarios, affecting both indus
try output and employment projections. Defense pro
curement was originally assumed to experience a
slowdown during the 1980’s but is now projected to in
crease its share of GNP; personal consumption expendi
tures are not expected to grow as rapidly as initially
forecast; and levels of exports and imports are both
higher in the new versions. These revisions contribute to
a change in the 1990 distribution of output and jobs at
the industry level. (See table 8.)
The earlier forecasts assumed a shift in energy re
sources from oil and gas to coal, as do the new fore
casts, but oil price shocks have been even more severe
than originally anticipated, leading to a more pro
nounced shift in the new projections.
And finally, the previous forecasts used Department
of Commerce input-output tables for 1963 and 1967
and a BLS-estimated table for 1973. Subsequently, a
1972 input-output table was published by the Depart
ment of Commerce. Use of this table in the new projec
tions resulted in widespread data revisions in many
historical series and provided more current information
on technological trends.
□
FOOTNOTES
'Annual Report to Congress, 1979, Volume 3, (Energy Information
Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, 1980).
2Projections o f the Population o f the United States: 1977 to 2050,
Current Population Reports. Series P-25, No. 704 (Census Bureau 1977).
3Government purchases are outlays for goods and services, while
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government expenditures include not only purchases but also grants,
transfers, and net interest payments.
4Projections o f the Population o f the United States: 1977 to 2050.
5The Detailed Input-Output Structure o f the U.S. Economy: 1972,
(U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, 1979).
41
Occupational employment
growth through 1990
Three alternative sets of occupational employment
projections for the 1978-90 period all show high growth
for white-collar and service categories, but slow growth
for blue-collar workers and decreases among farmworkers
M a x L. C a r e y
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has developed three sets
of occupational employment projections for 1978 to
1990 based on varying outlooks of the future economy.1
Although the assumptions that differentiate these sce
narios result in various rates of growth for most jobs,
changes in the occupational composition of total em
ployment during these years are similar for all versions
and generally correspond to past trends. Employment
continues to expand more rapidly in service occupations
than it does in other categories, and the number of
farmworkers still declines. White-collar jobs increase
faster than total employment in each scenario, and the
number of blue-collar jobs grows slower than the total.
However, growth rates are expected to vary greatly
within these broad categories, because demographic
changes, technological developments, and shifts in the
demand for products and services affect major occupa
tional categories differently. For example, anticipated
decreases in the teenage population and increases in the
number of elderly persons in the 1980’s will reduce the
need for secondary schoolteachers while increasing it for
nurses.
Although the occupational structure of total employ
ment in 1990 is similar in each version of the economy,
Max L. Carey is an economist in the Office of Economic Growth and
Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
42
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some occupations are more sensitive than others to the
differences in underlying assumptions. Generally, jobs
which are concentrated in manufacturing industries that
produce durable goods are most affected, as projected
increases in the demand for these goods vary greatly
among the scenarios. In contrast, occupations which are
concentrated in government are relatively unaffected,
because projections of its total employment change very
little from one version to another. None of the scenarios
attempts to forecast cyclical employment fluctuations.
This article summarizes projections from the first na
tional industry-occupation matrix to be developed on
the basis of staffing patterns from the Occupational Em
ployment Statistics Surveys. Previous matrices were
based on the decennial census.2
The matrix is a major input to the Bureau’s occupa
tional outlook program which conducts research on fu
ture occupational requirements and resources for use in
planning education and training programs and for career
guidance and counseling. The results of the research are
published in the Occupational Outlook Handbook and
the Occupational Outlook Quarterly, which also contain
information on the nature of work in different occupa
tions, educational and training needs, earnings and
working conditions, and other subjects of interest to
people who are planning careers. The projections de
scribed in this article will be used in the 1982-83 edition
of the Handbook, scheduled for release in spring 1982.
Alternative scenarios
Three projections of economic growth for the 1980’s
have been developed by BLS. Referred to as the lowtrend, high-trend I, and high-trend II scenarios, they
are based on different assumptions concerning growth
of the labor force, output, productivity, and other fac
tors. The low-trend alternative assumes a decline in the
rate of labor force expansion, continued high inflation,
and modest increases in production and productivity.
The two high-trend alternatives are more optimistic;
both being based on large increases in the gross nation
al product. Whereas scenario I assumes higher labor
force growth, scenario II assumes greater productivity.
In all three alternatives, reductions in both personal
income taxes and the effective corporate tax rate are
expected to stimulate investment, and it is anticipated
that expenditures for new equipment by the private sec
tor will grow somewhat faster than other types of in
vestment. Sharp increases in defense spending for
materials and supplies are expected in the 1980’s, but
the nondefense portion of Federal purchases is foreseen
to show no growth. Drastic cutbacks in imports of
crude oil are assumed in each scenario. However, oil
imports, as well as domestic output of crude oil and
other fuels, are greater in the high-trend alternatives, re
flecting the high overall levels of industrial production
anticipated in these versions of the economy. More de
tails about the assumptions and economic projections
are given in other articles in this issue of the Review.
Total employment in the low-trend scenario increases
by 22.5 percent between 1978 and 1990, from 97.6 to
119.6 million.3 In high-trend I, employment is expected
to rise by 31 percent during the same period, to 127.9
million in 1990; in high-trend II, it is projected at 121.4
million, or 24.4 percent above the 1978 level. The rate
of employment growth in high-trend I is somewhat
faster than during the previous two decades, while the
rates for the other two scenarios are slower.
Employment in white-collar occupations is expected
to expand faster than total employment in each version
of the economy. In the low-trend scenario, white-collar
jobs rise from 48.6 million in 1978 to 60.7 million in
1990. The 1990 high-trend projections range from 61.6
to 64.7 million. Employment in blue-collar occupations
is projected to grow slower than total employment in
each version. Blue-collar jobs increase from 31.8 million
in 1978 to 37.7 million in 1990 in the low-trend projec
tion, while high-trend projections for 1990 range from
38.3 to 40.7 million.
Despite the difference in these estimates among the
alternatives, the proportions of total employment ac
counted for by white-collar and blue-collar jobs do not
change substantially. The former increases from 49.8
percent in 1978 to between 50.6 and 50.9 percent in
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1990, while the latter declines from 32.6 percent in 1978
to between 31.8 and 31.5 percent in 1990.
Service workers continue to be the fastest growing
major occupational category. The number of service
jobs rises from 14.4 million in 1978 to 18.9 million in
1990 in the low-trend version, while the high-trend pro
jections range from 19.2 to 20.1 million. The share of
total jobs accounted for by service occupations in
creases from 14.8 percent in 1978 to between 15.7 and
15.8 percent in 1990. On the other hand, the number of
farmworkers, is expected to continue declining. Their
share of total jobs is projected to decrease from 2.8 per
cent in 1978 to between 1.9 and 1.8 percent in 1990.
Although service occupations, with projected employ
ment increases ranging between 31.4 and 39.3 percent,
are expected to be the fastest growing occupational
group during 1978-90, the largest number of new jobs
will occur in the white- and blue-collar categories. (See
chart 1.) The projected increase in white-collar jobs for
this period ranges from about 12.1 to 16.1 million, and
the corresponding range for blue-collar jobs is approxi
mately 5.9 to 8.9 million. The number of new service jobs
is expected to run between 4.5 and 5.7 million.
Job growth in blue-collar occupations is affected rela
tively more by differences among the three scenarios
than in other major occupational categories. The num
ber of new jobs projected for all occupations during
1978-90 is almost 22 million in the low-trend version,
compared with 30.3 million in high-trend alternative I,
a difference of 37.8 percent. However, the difference is
50.1 percent for blue-collar occupations alone. These
occupations are sensitive to high-trend I because they
are concentrated in manufacturing industries, and the
demand for manufactured goods is relatively greater in
this version of the economy. Demand for manufactured
goods also is greater in the high-trend II scenario, but
the need for additional blue-collar workers is moderated
by the higher productivity gains assumed in this ver
sion. For all occupations, about 8.5 percent more new
jobs are projected in high-trend II than in the low-trend
scenario. The difference for blue-collar jobs is 10.3 per
cent. Job growth in the white-collar and service catego
ries generally is less affected by differences in the
scenarios than blue-collar job growth. However, among
the major occupational groups and detailed occupations
within these large categories, the sensitivity to these dif
ferences varies.
Growth among white-collar groups
Professional and technical workers. Employment in pro
fessional and technical jobs was 15.6 million in 1978—
about 15.9 percent of the national total. Although this
group includes a wide variety of occupations, generally
requiring postsecondary education, approximately twothirds of the jobs were accounted for by teachers, medi43
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW August 1981 • Occupational Employment Projections
Chart 1. Job growth for major occupational categories under alternative economic projections,
1978-90
White-collar workers
Blue-collar workers
cal professionals, health technologists and technicians,
engineers, and engineering and science technicians.
Over the past two decades, the professional and tech
nical group has been one of the fastest growing occupa
tional categories. For example, between 1966 and 1978
employment in this group increased almost twice as fast
as it did in all occupations. Between 1978 and 1990,
employment is projected to continue to rise faster than
employment in all occupations in each of the alternative
scenarios, but the difference is anticipated to be less
than in the past. In the low-trend version of the econo
my, employment of professional and technical workers
is projected to increase by 28.7 percent over the same
period. The growth in the high-trend I version is 35.7
percent and that for high-trend II is 30.4 percent. (See
table 1.)
While employment in professional and technical jobs
as a whole is expected to increase faster than the aver
age rate for all occupations, there will be significant
Digitized 44
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Service workers
Farmworkers
differences among individual fields. For example, em
ployment in most medical and health occupations is
projected to expand very rapidly, while in many teach
ing occupations it is expected to decline. Rising incomes
and greater health consciousness will boost demand for
health care, as will population growth— especially the
substantial increase in the number of older people, who
have more need for health services. During the 1980’s,
the number of persons age 75 and over is expected to
advance from 9.4 to 12.0 million. As a result of these
factors, opportunities for professional and technical
workers in hospitals, clinics, laboratories, nursing
homes, and other settings are likely to increase rapidly.
Demand may be very high in rural areas and inner cit
ies, as job openings in less desirable locations have tra
ditionally been difficult to fill. In contrast to the rapid
employment growth projected in the health field, jobs
for secondary, college, and university teachers are
expected to decrease somewhat as a result of the decline
Managers and administrators. The 8.8 million workers
in this broad group in 1978 included managers and ad
ministrators at all levels of business and government,
from corporate executives and government officials to
managers of small businesses such as restaurants and
repair shops. A relatively large proportion of managers
— nearly 1 of 5— were self-employed.
Employment in this group is projected to grow more
slowly than the average during 1978-90 in each scenar
io. Projected increases range from 19.1 percent in the
low-trend version to between 21.3 and 27.9 percent in
the high-trend alternatives. The demand for managers is
more sensitive to the differences in the three scenarios
than that for all occupations.
Despite an overall increase in the managerial group,
the number of self-employed managers has been declin
ing, and this trend is expected to continue in the lowtrend and high-trend II scenarios. However, in hightrend I a small increase in self-employed managers is
projected.
in births that occurred in the 1960’s and 1970’s. De
mand for secondary schoolteachers could fall precipi
tously in the Northeast and North Central States,
where the Bureau of the Census projects a drop of close
to 25 percent in the number of 15- to 19-year-olds be
tween 1980 and 1990. A growing number of adults have
entered college in recent years, but their enrollment is
not expected to completely offset the decline in tradi
tional-age college students. In contrast, a small increase
in the demand for preschool, kindergarten, and elemen
tary teachers is anticipated, reflecting recent increases in
births, as a growing number of women enter the prime
childbearing ages. More opportunities for adult educa
tion teachers are also foreseen.
The demand for professional and technical workers as
a group is less sensitive to differences among the scenar
ios than the demand for workers in all occupations.
However, within the professional and technical group,
sensitivity varies. The demand for teachers is not
affected significantly by differences in the scenarios. But
alternative versions of the economy do have an impact
on the projections for engineers and engineering and
science technicians because these occupations are con
centrated in manufacturing industries. Because the hightrend alternatives assume lower corporate tax rates and
other incentives designed to stimulate business invest
ment in new equipment, employment requirements in
manufacturing industries which produce this equipment
are higher. For example, in high-trend I, engineering
employment is expected to rise by 553,000 between
1978 and 1990, compared with an increase of only
433,000 in the low-trend projection, which would mean
about 27.7 percent more new jobs for engineers during
the period.
Table 1.
Salesworkers. Employment in sales occupations totaled
approximately 6.4 million in 1978, or about 6.6 percent
of employment in all occupations. Nearly half of these
workers were concentrated in retail trade, and most of
the remainder worked in manufacturing and in service
industries such as finance, insurance, and real estate.
Employment in sales jobs is projected to grow faster
than the average for all occupations during 1978-90 in
each version of the economy.
Employment of salesworkers rises from 6.4 to 8.0
million between 1978 and 1990 in the low-trend version,
or 24.4 percent. Projected increases range from 25.8 to
34.5 percent in the high-trend versions. The demand for
Employment by major occupational group, actual 1978, and alternative projections for 1990
[Numbers in thousands]
Percentage change in employment,
1978-90
1990
1978
Occupational group
High-trend 1
Low-trend
High-trend II
High-trend
1
High-trend
II
22.5
31.0
24.4
24.9
28.7
19.1
24.4
24.7
33.1
35.7
27.9
34.5
33.0
26.7
30.4
21.3
25.8
26.4
Low-trend
Total ...................................................
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
97,610
100.0
119,590
100.0
127,907
100.0
121,447
100.0
64,712
21,119
11,257
8,632
23,705
50.6
16.5
8.8
6.8
18.5
61,570
20,295
10,677
8,079
22,519
50.7
16.7
8.8
6.7
18.5
White-collar workers ......................................
Professional and technical workers . . . .
Managers and administrators..................
Salesworkers..........................................
Clerical w o rkers......................................
48,608
15,568
8,802
6,420
17,818
49.8
15.9
9.0
6.6
18.3
60,730
20,038
10,484
7,989
22,219
50.9
16.8
8.8
6.7
18.6
Blue-collar workers ........................................
Craft and kindred w orkers......................
Operatives...............................................
Monfarm la borers....................................
31,812
11,705
14,205
5,902
32.6
12.0
14.6
6.0
37,720
14,366
16,399
6,955
31.5
12.0
13.7
5.8
40,694
15,555
17,697
7,441
31.8
12.2
13.8
5.8
38,330
14,668
16,584
7,078
31.6
12.1
13.7
5.8
18.6
22.7
15.4
17.8
27.9
32.9
24.6
26.1
20.5
25.3
16.8
19.9
Service workers...............................................
Private household workers ....................
Other service workers.............................
14,414
1,160
13,254
14.8
1.2
13.6
18,946
982
17,965
15.8
0.8
15.0
20,074
993
19,081
15.7
0.8
14.9
19,220
988
18,232
15.8
0.8
15.0
31.4
-15.4
35.5
39.3
-14.4
44.0
33.3
-14.9
37.6
Farmworkers...................................................
2,775
2.8
2,193
1.8
2,426
1.9
2,327
1.9
.-2 1 .0
-12.6
-16.3
N ote:
Due to rounding, sums of individual items may not equal totals.
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45
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW August 1981 • Occupational Employment Projections
salespersons is slightly more sensitive to the differences
in the low-trend and high-trend I scenarios than it is for
workers in all occupations. However, differences be
tween the low-trend and high-trend II scenarios have
relatively little effect on the demand for salesworkers.
Clerical workers. Clerical occupations account for more
jobs than any other occupational group. About 17.8
million persons or 18.3 percent of all workers, were in
clerical occupations in 1978; nearly 1 of 5 clericals was
either a secretary or a typist. Some other large occupa
tions within this group were general office clerks, ca
shiers, bookkeepers, and stock clerks.
Employment of clerical workers is projected to grow
faster than the average rate of employment growth in
each version of the economy. Although office automa
tion will enable clerical personnel to do more work in
less time and change skill requirements for some jobs,
continued increases in the demand for new workers are
anticipated in most occupations. Demand should be
particularly strong in the private sector, in industries
such as retail trade, finance, insurance, real estate,
legal services, and health services. At the same time,
little increase in government employment of clericals is
projected.
Employment in clerical occupations increased 24.7
percent between 1978 and 1990 in the low-trend version
of the economy. In high-trend I, the projected increase
is 33 percent, and in high-trend II, 26.4 percent. For
clerical workers, demand is slightly less sensitive to the
differences in the low-trend and high-trend I scenarios
than it is for workers in all occupations. For example,
the number of new clerical jobs in high-trend I is 33.8
percent greater than that projected in the low-trend ver
sion, compared with a difference of 37.8 percent for all
occupations.
Growth among blue-collar groups
Craft and kindred workers. The 11.7 million craftworkers employed in 1978 represented about 12 percent
of total employment. Construction trade workers and
mechanics, the two largest occupational categories in
the craft group, accounted for more than half of the
group’s employment. Other blue-collar categories are
supervisors, metalworking craftworkers, and printing
trades workers. Employment in the craft group is pro
jected to increase slightly faster than the average rate
for all occupations in each of the scenarios.
In the low-trend version of the economy, employment
in the construction crafts grows from almost 3 million
in 1978 to about 3.7 million in 1990, an increase of 27
percent. However, most of this growth is expected be
fore 1985. Demand for homeownership that was thwart
ed during the recession years of 1975 and 1980 should
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spur residential investment expenditures in the first half
of the 1980’s. However, after 1985 it is anticipated that
the rate of new household formation will decline, re
flecting the decrease in births that began in the 1960’s.
Business investment in construction of new plants and
buildings is expected to offset some of the slack in resi
dential construction during the late 1980’s.
Employment of mechanics in the low-trend version is
projected to rise from almost 3.8 to 4.8 million between
1978 and 1990, or 26.8 percent. However, rates of
change vary considerably among the individual occupa
tions. For example, the number of data processing ma
chine mechanics is projected to increase 147.6 percent,
while that of railroad car repairers is expected to de
cline. The number of workers in the metalworking
crafts expands almost as fast as the average rate for all
occupations in the low-trend version, but printing
trades workers are projected to increase much more
slowly than average. Improvements in printing technol
ogy have increased productivity and this trend should
continue.
The demand for craftworkers is more sensitive to dif
ferences in the alternative scenarios than the demand
for workers in all occupations. The projected number of
new jobs for craftworkers in the high-trend alternatives
is 11.3 to 44.7 percent higher than in the low-trend ver
sion. In comparison, the projected number of new jobs
in all occupations in the high-trend alternatives ranged
from 8.5 to 37.8 percent greater than those in the lowtrend version of the economy.
Craft occupations that are concentrated in manufac
turing industries, such as the metalworking crafts and
printing trades, are particularly sensitive to differences
in the scenarios. For example, employment in metal
working crafts increases by 283,000 in the high-trend I
projection, which is 65 percent greater than the project
ed increase of 172,000 in the low-trend version. A large
proportion of metalworking craft employment is found
in factories that produce equipment for business and in
dustrial use. Because growth in investment for equip
ment is much faster in high-trend I, employment re
quirements will be greater in most industries that
manufacture fabricated metal products, machinery, elec
trical equipment, and transportation equipment. In
some industries, the number of new metalworking craft
jobs in high-trend I is more than twice the number in
the low-trend version.
Operatives. Included in this group are many of the bluecollar workers associated with manufacturing and trans
portation operations. About 14.2 million operatives
were employed in 1978. More than 80 percent worked
at manufacturing jobs such as assembler, machine tool
operator, welder, and inspector. Outside of manufactur-
ing, operatives were concentrated in transportation and
trade. Many were transport equipment operators, such
as truck or bus drivers.
Employment of operatives is projected to grow
slower than the average for all occupations in the
1978-90 period. More efficient production as a result of
greater investment in new plants and equipment should
limit increases in the demand for operatives in factories.
However, growth rates for individual occupations will
vary, depending on the particular industries in which
they are employed. Generally, occupations that are con
centrated in the durable goods sector are projected to
grow faster than those in industries that make
nondurable goods. As family incomes rise, consumers
are expected to spend an increasing proportion of in
come on automobiles, furniture, and other durable
goods, and a decreasing proportion on nondurables,
such as food and basic clothing.
High-trend alternative I affects the growth of opera
tives more than that of any other occupational group.
In the low-trend version, operative employment is pro
jected at 6.4 million in 1990, an increase of 2.2 million
over the 1978 level. The anticipated operative growth in
high-trend I is 3.5 million, or 59.2 percent greater than
the low-trend number. By comparison, the gain in
growth for all occupations is only 37.8 percent. On the
other hand, high-trend alternative II results in only an
8.3-percent greater number of new jobs than the lowtrend version, which is about the same as the percent
age gain for all occupations under this alternative.
Manufacturing output is much greater in high-trend I
than in the low-trend scenario, which results in a higher
demand for operatives, although the difference in the
employment projections is moderated by the assump
tion that productivity will also be greater. In contrast,
the dissimilarity in the two high-trend employment pro
jections for operatives is largely a result of different pro
jected increases in manufacturing productivity. Between
1978 and 1990, productivity in manufacturing industries
rises 33.7 percent in alternative II compared with 26.3
percent in alternative I. A slightly higher rate of in
crease in manufacturing output in alternative I also con
tributes to the difference in the employment projections.
Service workers
Service workers, except private household. Numbering
13.2 million in 1978, these service jobs accounted for
about 13.6 percent of total employment. Employment in
this group is expected to increase faster than in any oth
er occupational group through the 1980’s in each sce
nario of the economy. Projected 1978-90 increases
range from 35.5 percent in the low-trend version to 44
percent in high-trend I. Employment growth is expected
to be particularly rapid in food service occupations,
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to be such as waiters’ assistants and in health service
occupations, such as nurses’ aides and medical assis
tants. The greater health care needs of a growing elder
ly population will spur demand for service workers in
hospitals and nursing homes. The demand for food ser
vice workers should also grow as incomes rise and more
families have both husbands and wives working. Em
ployment of police officers, firefighters, and most other
protective service workers is projected to grow slower
than the average for service occupations, but faster than
that for all occupations. Projected growth rates are
mixed among personal service occupations. For exam
ple, rapid increases in the demand for childcare workers
and welfare service aides are anticipated, but only mod
erate increases in employment are expected for barbers
and cosmetologists.
Demand for this group of service workers is less sen
sitive to differences in the three scenarios than for most
other occupational groups. For example, employment in
the high-growth projection I is only 23.7-percent great
er than employment in the low-growth projection, com
pared with the 37.8-percent difference for all occupa
tions. It is assumed that the additional increases in
personal income in the high-trend versions will be spent
primarily on goods rather than on services.
Private household workers. In contrast to the rapid em
ployment gain anticipated for other service workers, the
number of private household workers is projected to de
crease from almost 1.2 million in 1978 to between
993,000 and 982,000 in 1990. A continued decline is
expected, despite an increase „in job opportunities for
private household workers. The demand for maids and
other private household workers should rise as more
women work outside the home and personal incomes
rise, but fewer people will seek employment in private
households because of low wages, lack of advancement
opportunities, and low social status associated with
these jobs.
Farmworkers
More than half of the almost 2.8 million farmworkers
employed in 1978 were farmers, including both owners
and tenant farmers; most of the remainder were farm la
borers. A small proportion were managers and supervi
sors. Employment of farmworkers has declined for
decades as farm productivity has risen as a result of
larger, more efficient farms, improvements in mecha
nized equipment, and technological innovations in seed,
feed, and fertilizer. Continued drops in the number of
farmworkers are expected through the 1980’s. In the
low-trend version, employment falls, from almost 2.8
million in 1978 to 2.2 million in 1990, a decrease of 21
percent. The projected declines are jnore moderate in
47
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW August 1981 • Occupational Employment Projections
the high-trend versions, 12.6 percent in I and 16.3 per
cent in II. The number of farmers is projected to fall
less rapidly than the number of farm laborers in each
alternative.
jobs in the low-trend version are presented in the list
which follows. In both high-trend alternatives, licensed
practical nurses drop from this list (but remain in the
top 25), and are replaced by carpenters:
Detailed occupations
Table 2 presents 1978-90 employment projections for
all detailed occupations in the industry-occupation ma
trix with employment of 25,000 or more in 1978.4 Ap
proximately 340 occupations were in this category, and
they accounted for about three-fourths of total employ
ment in 1978. Projected rates of employment change for
these selected occupations cover broad ranges in the
three scenarios. For example, low-trend projections run
from a 25.4-percent decline for farm laborers to a
147.6-percent increase for data processing machine me
chanics. Rankings of occupations by projected growth
rates are very similar for the three scenarios. The fol
lowing list presents the 20 most rapidly growing de
ta ile d o c c u p a tio n s a m o n g the lo w -tr e n d projections:
O ccu p a tio n
P e rc e n t g ro w th
in e m p lo y m e n t,
1 9 7 8 -9 0
D ata processing m achine m echanics ..................
Paralegal personnel ...................................................
Com puter system s analysts ....................................
Com puter o p e r a t o r s ...................................................
Office m achine and cash register servicers . . .
Com puter program mers ..........................................
A ero-astronautic e n g in e e r s.......................................
F o o d preparation and service workers, fast
food r esta u r a n ts.........................................................
E m ploym ent interviewers .......................................
T ax preparers ...............................................................
147.6
132.4
107.8
87.9
80.8
73.6
70.4
Correction officials and j a i l e r s ..............................
A r c h it e c t s ........................................................................
D ental h y g i e n i s t s .........................................................
Physical t h e r a p i s t s ......................................................
D ental assistants .........................................................
Peripheral E D P equipm ent operators ...............
Child-care a t t e n d a n t s ................................................
V e te r in a r ia n s..................................................................
Travel agents and accom od ation s appraisers . .
N u rses’ aides and orderlies ....................................
60.3
60.2
57.9
57.6
57.5
57.3
56.3
56.1
55.6
54.6
68.8
66.6
64.5
In high-trend alternative I, correction officials and
jailers, dental hygienists, and dental assistants drop off
the list of the 20 fastest growing occupations, and are
replaced by real estate sales agents and representatives,
dental lab technicians, and security sales agents and
representatives. In high-trend II, dental assistants and
travel agents drop off the list and are replaced by real
estate sales agents and representatives, and economists.
However, in both high-trend alternatives the displaced
occupations remain among the 30 fastest growing.
The rank of occupations by growth in numbers of
jobs also changes little from one scenario to another.
The 20 occupations with the largest numbers of new
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
O ccu p a tio n
G row th in
e m p lo y m e n t
(in th ou san ds),
1 9 7 8 -9 0
Janitors and s e x t o n s ........................................................
N u rses’ aides and o r d e r l i e s .........................................
Sales c le r k s ..........................................................................
C a s h ie r s ................................................................................
W a ite r s/w a itr e ss e s...........................................................
G eneral clerks, o f f i c e .....................................................
Professional n u r s e s ...........................................................
F ood preparation and service workers, fast
food restaurants ...........................................................
Secretaries ..........................................................................
T r u c k d r iv e r s.......................................................................
491.9
487.8
437.6
K itchen h e l p e r s .................................................................
Elem entary schoolteachers .........................................
T y p is t s ...................................................................................
A ccou ntan ts and a u d it o r s ............................................
H elpers, trades .................................................................
Blue-collar worker s u p e r v iso r s...................................
Bookkeepers, h a n d ...........................................................
Licensed practical nurses ............................................
G uards and d o o r k e e p e r s...............................................
A u tom otive m e c h a n ic s ..................................................
300.6
272.8
262.1
254.2
232.5
221.1
219.7
215.6
209.9
205.3
671.2
594.0
590.7
545.5
531.9
529.8
515.8
The low-trend version projects employment declines
for 22 of the detailed occupations and high-trend II
projects drops for 21; the rankings by rates of decline
are similar for both scenarios. The number of occupa
tions with projected employment decreases falls to 18 in
high-trend I. However, the reversals in the direction of
change are not dramatic, and usually make relatively
little difference in the projected employment levels.
New data base
The method used by BLS to develop occupational pro
jections requires two basic inputs— projected employ
ment by industry at a detailed industry level and
projected occupational staffing patterns at the same in
dustry detail. The occupational projections prepared by
BLS are obtained by applying the projected occupational
staffing patterns to the related industry employment
projections and summing across the detailed industries.5
The Bureau has used this procedure to develop national
occupational projections since the mid-1960’s.6
During the 1960’s and 1970’s, decennial census data
were the primary data source for developing occupa
tional staffing patterns of industries. These patterns
were based largely on trends in the census data from
decade to decade. However, because census data are
collected only every 10 years, they were considered in
adequate for analyzing trends in industry staffing pat
terns. In the 1970’s, the Bureau initiated the Occupa-
Table 2.
Civilian employment in occupations with 25,000 workers or more, actual 1978 and projected 1990
Employment (in thousands)
Occupation
Percent change, 1978-90
1978
1990
Low-trend
1990
High-trend I
1990
High-trend II
Total, all occupations................................................................................................
97,610
119,590
127,907
121,447
22.52
31.04
24.42
Professional, technical, and related w o rkers.......................................................
¡Engineers...........................................................................................................
Aero-astronautlc engineers .........................................................................
Chemical engineers.......................................................................................
Civil engineers .............................................................................................
Electrical engineers.......................................................................................
Industrial engineers.......................................................................................
Mechanical engineers ..................................................................................
15,570
1,071
57
53
149
291
109
199
20,038
1,504
98
68
208
441
146
274
21,119
1,624
104
73
218
479
159
300
20,295
1,531
100
70
211
448
148
279
28.70
40.41
70.35
28.92
39.38
51.18
34.03
37.56
35.64
51.61
80.86
37.70
45.59
64.41
46.49
50.67
30.34
42.92
74.81
31.80
40.97
53.90
36.37
40.18
Ijfe and physical scientists ..............................................................................
Biological scientists.......................................................................................
Chemists ..........................................................- .........................................
Geologists ....................................................................................................
Engineering and science technicians................................................................
Drafters ........................................................................................................
Electrical and electronic technicians ............................................................
Industrial engineering technicians ................................................................
Mechanical engineenng technicians ............................................................
Surveyors......................................................................................................
236
42
90
33
1,160
293
319
31
45
54
299
51
113
50
1,577
412
464
40
61
73
316
54
120
53
1,700
446
512
44
67
78
304
53
115
51
1,609
419
478
41
62
76
26.44
21.82
24.95
52.08
35.97
40.59
45.42
30.37
35.96
35.19
33.63
28.86
32.19
61.36
46.54
52.25
60.24
41.33
49.67
44.73
28.70
24.98
27.23
52.69
38.73
43.20
49.79
32.09
38.75
39.91
Ittedical workers, except technicians ..............................................................
Dentists ........................................................................................................
Dietitians ......................................................................................................
Nurses, professional ....................................................................................
Optometnsts..................................................................................................
Pharmacists..................................................................................................
Physicians, medical and osteopathic............................................................
Therapists ....................................................................................................
Physical therapists....................................................................................
Speech and hearing clinicians...................................................................
Vetennarians ................................................................................................
2,026
149
41
1,026
25
140
447
139
31
34
30
2,928
208
61
1,542
33
159
626
210
49
52
47
3,094
223
65
1,618
36
171
665
220
52
53
51
2,954
212
62
1,551
33
157
631
213
50
52
50
44.55
39.59
49.69
50.28
29.66
13.36
39.98
51.51
57.63
54.50
56.13
52.77
49.24
58.61
57.69
40.65
22.36
48.70
58.67
66.46
58.29
70.27
45.83
42.37
53.43
51.20
31.20
12.10
41.23
53.19
59.73
55.33
66.11
Health technologists and technicians ..............................................................
Dental assistants...........................................................................................
Dental hygienists...........................................................................................
Health records technologists .......................................................................
Licensed practical nurses ...........................................................................
Medical technicians.......................................................................................
Medical lab technologists..............................................................................
Surgical technicians.......................................................................................
X-ray technicians .........................................................................................
1,246
123
53
30
491
82
98
30
86
1,811
193
84
44
707
119
141
44
126
1,906
198
86
46
752
127
149
46
133
1,820
191
84
44
717
119
141
44
126
45.34
57.48
57.92
47.10
43.89
46.04
43.90
48.13
47.44
52.93
60.95
61.42
53.57
52.98
55.31
52.70
54.63
54.71
46.03
55.91
56.38
47.26
45.96
46.36
44.32
48.00
47.21
Technicians, excluding health, science, and engineering.................................
Airplane pilo ts...............................................................................................
Air traffic controllers ....................................................................................
Technical assistants, lib ra ry .........................................................................
Computer specialists.........................................................................................
Computer programmers ..............................................................................
Computer systems analysts.........................................................................
Social scientists ...............................................................................................
Economists....................................................................................................
Psychologists ...............................................................................................
271
74
28
34
389
204
185
176
27
78
343
94
34
48
738
354
384
243
41
107
362
101
34
49
793
•'381
412
256
43
111
347
96
34
48
754
361
392
248
42
109
26.82
27.00
21.67
42.07
89.83
73.57
107.75
38.12
54.17
36.79
33.78
35.47
24.18
42.78
104.05
86.90
122.97
45.51
62.93
42.69
28.11
28.81
21.93
41.71
93.94
77.22
112.38
41.26
56.30
39.31
Teachers...........................................................................................................
Adult education teachers..............................................................................
College and university teachers ...................................................................
Teachers, vocational education and training ............................................
Teachers, college ....................................................................................
Graduate assistants................................................... ...............................
Elementary schoolteachers .........................................................................
Preschool and kindergarten teachers ..........................................................
Secondary schoolteachers...........................................................................
3,877
105
618
26
454
131
1,277
455
1,229
4,079
123
557
33
409
110
1,550
574
1,071
4,113
126
560
34
410
110
1,556
579
1,075
4,074
124
556
33
408
109
1,546
572
1,068
5.22
18.02
-9.78
26.49
-10.06
-16.45
21.37
26.16
-12.87
6.09
20.75
-9.30
30.29
-9.72
-16.13
21.82
27.31
-12.54
5.08
18.31
-9.97
26.85
-10.28
-16.65
21.08
25.75
-13.08
¡selected writers, artists, and entertainers.......................................................
Commercial artists .......................................................................................
Designers......................................................................................................
Musicians, instrumental ................................................................................
Photographers .............................................................................................
Public relations specialists...........................................................................
Radio and TV announcers...........................................................................
Reporters and correspondents.....................................................................
Sports instructors .........................................................................................
Writers and editors .......................................................................................
888
100
169
126
77
81
46
54
34
109
1,117
122
194
160
104
102
66
68
41
142
1,198
134
212
166
113
109
68
74
43
155
1,134
126
190
166
104
104
66
70
41
146
25.78
22.25
15.22
27.15
35.95
26.06
43.02
27.59
20.16
30.33
34.93
33.97
25.49
31.73
47.21
34.81
48.74
37.44
26.64
41.59
27.75
26.58
12.87
31.67
35.30
29.15
43.35
31.25
20.56
34.03
Other professional and technical w o rkers.......................................................
Accountants and auditors ...........................................................................
Appraisers, real estate ................................................................................
Architects......................................................................................................
Assessors ....................................................................................................
Buyers, retail and wholesale trade ..............................................................
Caseworkers ................................................................................................
Clergy ...........................................................................................................
Community organization workers ................................................................
Cost estimators ...........................................................................................
Directors, religious education and activities .................................................
Employment interviews ................................................................................
4,183
777
32
66
30
238
236
287
49
80
36
51
5,338
1,031
47
106
38
296
338
292
71
105
37
86
5,692
1,107
50
112
38
320
350
313
74
112
40
95
5,457
1,055
48
109
38
298
346
301
73
108
38
88
27.61
32.72
46.38
60.20
28.03
24.37
43.32
1.67
46.74
31.60
3.29
66.59
36.07
42.50
56.88
70.18
30.27
34.15
48.42
9.19
51.38
40.84
11.13
85.55
30.46
35.83
49.79
64.53
28.26
25.13
46.57
5.12
49.76
34.94
6.96
72.02
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Low-trend
High-trend 1
High-trend II
49
M O N T H L Y L A B O R R E V IE W A u g u st 1981 •
Table 2.
Occupational Employment Projections
Continued— Civilian employment in occupations with 25,000 workers or more, actual 1978 and projected 1990
Percent change, 1978-90
Employment (in thousands)
Occupation
1978
1990
Low-trend
1990
High-trend I
1990
High-trend II
Low-trend
High-trend 1
High-trend II
Foresters......................................................................................................
Law clerks ....................................................................................................
Law yers.........................................................................................................
Paralegal personnel ....................................................................................
Librarians......................................................................................................
Personnel and labor relations specialists.....................................................
Purchasing agents and b u ye rs .....................................................................
Recreation workers, group...........................................................................
Tax examiners, collectors, and revenue a g e n ts ..........................................
Tax preparers................................................................................................
Travel agents and accommodations appraisers..........................................
Underwriters..................................................................................................
Vocational and educational counselors........................................................
26
30
380
28
130
169
164
121
50
29
45
70
202
32
43
524
66
139
205
200
152
60
47
70
90
212
34
48
580
75
142
217
214
160
61
54
74
93
215
33
44
543
69
140
208
202
157
60
51
70
90
213
22.15
44.04
37.85
132.35
6.78
21.06
21.96
26.41
19.39
64.52
55.64
28.40
4.66
27.33
62.47
52.71
165.68
8.76
28.21
30.69
32.63
21.65
87.75
65.46
33.86
6.29
25.25
49.85
43.05
142.99
7.12
22.86
23.69
29.99
19.61
77.93
56.06
28.98
5.27
Managers, officials, and proprietors ................................................................
Auto parts department managers................................................................
Auto service department managers ............................................................
Construction inspectors, public administration ............................................
Inspectors, excluding construction, public administration.............................
Postmasters and mail superintendents .......................................................
Railroad conductors ....................................................................................
Restaurant, cafe, and bar managers............................................................
Sales managers, retail trade .......................................................................
Store managers ...........................................................................................
W holesalers..................................................................................................
8,802
48
60
44
104
28
33
499
261
926
234
10,484
54
69
61
125
29
31
642
323
1,102
279
11,257
59
75
62
128
30
34
680
351
1,183
307
10,677
59
75
61
125
29
32
650
323
1,107
284
19.10
13.20
15.02
37.37
20.58
4.07
-6.63
28.65
24.14
18.95
19.60
27.89
23.01
24.97
39.81
22.88
7.92
2.93
36.25
34.83
27.76
31.35
21.31
23.28
25.46
37.62
20.82
4.84
-5.52
30.27
23.93
19.52
21.42
Saiesworkers....................................................................................................
Real estate brokers.......................................................................................
Sales agents and representatives, real e s ta te ............................................
Sales agents and representatives, insurance...............................................
Sales agents and representatives, security .................................................
Sales c le rk s ................................................................................ - ................
6,443
34
255
310
55
2,771
7,989
48
394
399
80
3,362
8,632
52
430
420
92
3,601
8,079
49
400
405
88
3,362
23.99
42.34
54.09
28.61
45.79
21.32
33.97
55.92
68.42
35.66
66.81
29.96
25.40
44.47
56.74
30.81
60.70
21.32
Clerical w o rkers...............................................................................................
Adjustment c le rk s .........................................................................................
Bank tellers ..................................................................................................
New accounts te lle rs ................................................................................
Tellers ......................................................................................................
Bookkeepers and accounting clerks ............................................................
Accounting clerks ....................................................................................
Bookkeepers, hand ..................................................................................
Cashiers........................................................................................................
Claims adjusters...........................................................................................
Claims clerks ................................................................................................
Claims examiners, Insurance .......................................................................
Clerical supervisors.......................................................................................
Collectors, bill and account .........................................................................
Credit clerks, banking and Insurance ..........................................................
Desk clerks, except bowling flo o r ................................................................
Dispatchers, police, fire, and ambulance.....................................................
Dispatchers, vehicle service or w o rk ............................................................
Eligibility workers, welfare ...........................................................................
File clerks ....................................................................................................
General clerks, office ..................................................................................
Insurance clerks, medical..............................................................................
Library assistants .........................................................................................
Mall carriers, postal s e rvice .........................................................................
Mall clerks ....................................................................................................
Marking clerks, tra d e ....................................................................................
Messengers ..................................................................................................
Meter readers, utilities..................................................................................
17,820
37
440
48
392
1,628
700
927
1,501
65
63
38
402
85
47
75
46
89
30
251
2,269
63
117
237
75
22,219
45
601
65
536
1,982
835
1,147
2,046
95
92
58
518
108
62
97
60
108
38
328
2,799
93
128
260
94
54
60
32
23,705
48
619
67
552
2,131
895
1,236
2,165
98
96
59
552
119
68
109
61
116
39
349
3,002
97
129
270
99
57
64
38
22,519
46
606
66
540
2,014
845
1,168
2,070
95
93
58
526
113
66
98
60
107
39
332
2,839
92
128
262
96
55
61
32
24.69
23.89
36.40
34.65
36.62
21.79
19.27
23.69
36.35
46.63
47.26
51.53
29.01
26.52
31.00
29.27
28.22
21.58
29.67
30.77
23.35
46.69
8.77
9.77
25.19
21.24
28.24
14.64
33.03
29.83
40.61
39.23
40.78
30.95
27.82
33.32
44.27
51.65
52.78
54.74
37.45
39.53
43.91
46.09
30.47
29.62
32.16
39.31
32.28
53.95
9.98
13.83
31.61
27.88
37.38
33.57
26.37
24.57
37.51
36.57
37.62
23.72
20.74
25.96
37.96
47.21
48.06
52.29
30.81
32.26
39.79
30.91
28.45
20.55
30.28
32.42
25.11
45.77
8.74
10.58
27.50
23.46
31.97
15.04
Office machine operators..............................................................................
Bookkeeping and billing operators............................................................
Bookkeeping, billing machine operators...............................................
Proof machine operators .....................................................................
Computer, peripheral equipment operators ............................................
Computer operators..............................................................................
Peripheral EDP equipment operators...................................................
Duplicating machine operators ................................................................
Keypunch operators ................................................................................
842
218
166
215
169
46
31
295
1,133
283
212
60
389
317
72
38
316
1,211
301
228
61
415
338
76
41
341
1,147
283
212
59
397
323
73
39
321
34.52
29.84
27.72
37.07
81.32
87.90
57.26
22.46
7.03
43.85
37.92
37.57
39.56
93.19
100.74
65.55
31.01
15.56
36.21
29.41
27.63
35.56
84.73
91.71
59.15
24.56
8.78
Order c le rk s ..................................................................................................
Payroll and timekeeping cle rks.....................................................................
Personnel c le rk s ...........................................................................................
Postal clerks..................................................................................................
Procurement c le rk s .......................................................................................
Production clerks .........................................................................................
Raters ...........................................................................................................
Receptionists ................................................................................................
Reservation a g e n ts.......................................................................................
Secretaries, stenographers, and typists.......................................................
Secretaries................................................................................................
Stenographers .............................................................................................
T ypists...........................................................................................................
240
172
90
310
39
192
51
369
52
3,574
2,319
262
993
289
211
111
309
46
234
63
505
55
4,383
2,807
322
1,255
316
226
118
321
50
257
66
540
59
4,678
3,007
341
1,330
288
214
113
312
47
238
64
511
56
4,458
2,860
326
1,271
20.25
22.13
23.40
-.28
19.53
22.33 .
23.56
37.00
6.64
22.65
21.03
22.76
26.40
31.49
31.01
30.14
3.41
28.38
34.03
28.73
46.36
13.57
30.89
29.64
30.20
33.98
19.88
24.08
24.79
.46
20.72
24.48
24.14
38.57
7.48
24.72
23.31
24.46
28.09
Shipping and receiving clerks...........................................................................
378
448
488
452
18.52
28.92
19.38
Digitized for
50 FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
44
47
28
44
Table 2.
Continued— Civilian employment in occupations with 25,000 workers or more, actual 1978 and projected 1990
Percent change, 1978-90
Employment (in thousands)
Occupation
1978
1990
Low-trend
1990
High-trend I
1990
Hlgh-trend II
Low-trend
High-trend I
High-trend II
Shipping packers .............................................................................................
Statement clerks .............................................................................................
Statistical c le rk s ................................................................................................
Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse ........................................................
Survey workers ................................................................................................
Switchboard operators/receptionists ..............................................................
Teacher's aides, except monitors.....................................................................
Telephone operators.........................................................................................
Switchboard operators ................................................................................
Central office operators................................................................................
Directory assistance operators.....................................................................
Ticket a g e n ts ....................................................................................................
Town c le rk s ......................................................................................................
W eighers...........................................................................................................
340
30
81
787
40
219
404
312
171
101
35
49
26
35
398
44
95
964
48
276
497
376
218
113
40
51
33
42
431
45
101
1,043
52
298
500
414
234
128
45
54
34
45
401
44
96
977
49
282
495
382
222
114
40
51
33
42
17.10
45.76
16.85
22.44
17.84
25.96
23.00
20.60
27.65
11.24
13.47
3.75
28.55
17.92
26.90
49.57
24.09
32.47
27.72
36.08
23.79
32.58
37.18
26.08
28.59
10.11
30.80
26.90
17.99
45.81
18.23
24.16
21.46
28.71
22.59
22.54
30.05
12.62
14.85
4.61
28.78
19.15
Crafts and related w o rke rs..................................................................................
Construction craftworkers................................................................................
Brickmasons..................................................................................................
Carpenters....................................................................................................
Carpet cutters and layers ............................................................................
Ceiling tile installers and floor layers............................................................
Concrete and terrazzo finishers ...................................................................
Dry wall installers and lathers .....................................................................
Dry wall applicators..................................................................................
Tapers ......................................................................................................
Electricians....................................................................................................
G laziers.........................................................................................................
Painters, construction and maintenance .....................................................
Plumbers and pipefitters ..............................................................................
Roofers .........................................................................................................
Structural steel workers................................................................................
11,679
2,950
144
979
50
25
113
92
51
30
516
35
363
375
99
67
14,366
3,747
204
1,183
65
35
152
125
70
42
678
48
436
492
130
90
15,555
4,037
220
1,274
72
38
164
135
76
46
726
51
477
526
139
95
14,668
3,841
211
1,228
67
36
157
128
72
43
693
49
429
504
133
92
23.01
27.04
41.71
20.82
29.41
36.88
34.61
35.46
39.20
40.68
31.44
35.53
20.02
31.06
31.05
33.07
33.19
36.85
52.76
30.17
43.35
50.70
44.96
46.23
50.46
51.68
40.77
44.62
31.27
40.04
40.91
40.57
25.60
30.24
46.35
25.46
33.48
41.16
38.82
38.99
43.19
43.66
34.33
40.02
18.25
34.40
35.03
36.37
Mechanics, repairers, and installers ................................................................
Air conditioning, heating, and refrigerator mechanics .................................
Aircraft mechanics .......................................................................................
Auto body repairers ....................................................................................
Automotive mechanics..................................................................................
Coin machine servicers and repairers..........................................................
Data processing machine mechanics ..........................................................
Diesel mechanics .........................................................................................
Electric power line installers and repairers .................................................
Cable splicers...........................................................................................
Line installers and repairers .....................................................................
3,758
165
97
154
847
27
63
166
157
40
110
4,764
213
125
189
1,052
29
156
214
189
48
133
5,157
230
133
201
1,124
31
172
227
215
54
151
4,863
216
126
193
1,082
25
162
214
192
48
136
26.77
29.04
28.32
22.67
24.25
9.53
147.62
29.29
20.33
18.54
21.30
37.24
39.10
36.20
30.40
32.71
16.43
173.02
37.24
36.48
34.14
37.45
29.40
30.65
29.47
25.13
27.77
-7.79
157.14
29.36
22.12
19.99
23.24
Engineering equipment mechanics ..............................................................
Gas and electric appliance repairers............................................................
Instrument repairers ....................................................................................
Maintenance mechanics ..............................................................................
Maintenance repairers, general utility ..........................................................
Millwrights ....................................................................................................
Office machine and cash register servicers.................................................
Radio and television repairers .....................................................................
Railroad car repairers ..................................................................................
Telephone installers and repairers ..............................................................
Central office repairers ...........................................................................
Installers, repairers, and section maintainers ..........................................
Station installers .......................................................................................
86
57
36
346
626
93
49
81
30
228
47
69
55
104
70
42
411
785
108
89
112
24
273
56
83
65
112
78
45
439
846
114
96
122
27
310
63
94
74
107
70
42
418
795
109
91
117
25
277
57
84
66
20.83
21.39
14.62
18.83
25.52
15.47
80.78
37.56
-18.81
20.21
19.40
20.36
19.62
30.45
35.29
24.03
27.06
35.18
22.39
96.24
49.60
-10.47
36.29
35.31
36.34
35.61
24.90
21.24
15.79
21.10
27.01
16.79
86.69
44.10
-17.85
21.85
20.86
22.01
21.11
Metalworking craftworkers, except mechanics............................................
Boilermakers.............................................................................................
Heat treaters, annealers, and tem perers.................................................
Machine tool setters, metalworking..........................................................
Machinists..................................................................................................
Sheet metal workers and tinsm iths..........................................................
Tool and die makers ................................................................................
909
42
25
57
272
205
166
1,081
52
29
66
323
261
192
1,192
57
32
74
358
280
221
1,106
54
30
67
331
267
197
18.96
25.56
16.06
16.10
18.82
27.57
15.96
31.11
36.70
25.79
29.85
31.66
36.95
33.10
Printing trades craftworkers.........................................................................
Compositors and typesetters ...................................................................
Press and plate printers...........................................................................
Letter press operators .........................................................................
Offset lithographic press operators .....................................................
Press operators and plate printers .....................................................
386
123
168
36
75
35
442
121
197
39
92
41
476
130
211
42
99
43
458
124
204
40
96
42
14.72
-1.92
17.42
8.99
22.55
16.10
43.55
5.96
25.92
17.88
31.91
21.82
18.72
1.03
21.68
13.64
27.61
17.87
Other crafts and related workers ................................................................
Bakers ......................................................................................................
Blue-collar worker supervisors ................................................................
Cabinetmakers .........................................................................................
Crane, derrick, and hoist operators..........................................................
Dental lab technicians ..............................................................................
Furniture upholsterers ..............................................................................
Heavy equipment operators.....................................................................
Inspectors..................................................................................................
Jewelers and silversmiths .......................................................................
Merchandise displayers and window trimmers ........................................
Opticians ..................................................................................................
Sewage plant operators...........................................................................
Stationary engineers ................................................................................
3,677
60
1,274
72
126
48
30
431
475
29
26
30
38
60
4,332
72
1,495
89
146
69
38
546
544
32
31
42
43
68
4,693
76
1,616
95
157
79
43
598
595
35
33
46
45
72
4,400
74
1,520
88
149
71
39
560
554
31
32
41
43
68
17.82
20.11
17.36
22.96
15.72
44.91
27.31
26.57
14.70
10.74
17.84
38.61
15.01
13.48
27.64
27.22
26.87
31.00
23.73
67.04
41.84
38.65
25.43
21.54
26.30
50.56
18.28
19.89
19.67
22.97
19.33
21.36
17.75
48.65
31.43
29.83
16.73
7.24
20.68
34.65
15.26
14.40
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
-
21.69
30.12
16.70
18.52
21.95
30.63
18.79
51
M O N T H L Y L A B O R R E V IE W A u g u st 1981 •
Table 2.
Occupational Employment Projections
Continued— Civilian employment in occupations with 25,000 workers or more, actual 1978 and projected 1990
Employment (in thousands)
Occupation
1978
1990
Low-trend
1990
High-trend I
Percent change, 1978-90
1990
High-trend II
Low-trend
High-trend I
High-trend II
Tailors ......................................................................................................
Testers......................................................................................................
Water treatment plant operators..............................................................
66
105
27
75
120
32
83
130
33
77
122
32
14.34
14.55
15.98
25.05
23.83
21.15
16.75
16.48
16.30
Operatives.........................................................................................................
Assemblers ..................................................................................................
Electrical and electronic assem blers.......................................................
Electro-mechanical equipment assemblers ............................................
Machine assemblers ................................................................................
Bindery operatives .......................................................................................
Bindery workers, assembly.......................................................................
Laundering, drycleaning, and pressing machine operators ........................
Laundry operators, small establishment...................................................
Pressers:
Hand ....................................................................................................
Machine ................................................................................................
Machine, la undry..................................................................................
Washers, machine and starchers ............................................................
14,205
1,672
207
53
100
81
41
316
34
16,399
1,997
278
69
124
86
43
356
48
17,697
2,192
305
78
144
94
47
404
53
16,584
2,029
281
71
127
90
45
375
49
15.44
19.44
34.24
29.89
24.76
6.57
6.64
12.48
39.62
24.58
31.07
47.30
46.37
44.67
15.63
15.99
27.76
56.00
16.75
21.33
36.07
32.13
27.48
10.72
10.95
18.68
44.80
30
54
66
56
32
56
74
79
36
65
84
87
33
59
78
82
7.18
2.41
11.76
41 42
19.30
18.80
26.65
55 69
10.79
8.76
18.08
47 19
Metalworking operatives ..............................................................................
Drill press and boring machine operators.................................................
Electroplaters ...........................................................................................
Grinding and abrading machine operators, metal ...................................
Lathe machine operators, metal ..............................................................
Machine tool operators:
Combination .........................................................................................
Numerical control..................................................................................
Tool ro o m .............................................................................................
Milling and planing machine operators.....................................................
Power brake and bending machine operators, metal .............................
Punch press operators, m e ta l..................................................................
Welders and flamecutters .......................................................................
1,650
123
35
131
153
1,970
148
44
154
186
2,211
167
48
173
210
2,025
151
45
157
191
19.38
19.57
24.38
17.43
22.03
33.97
35.39
34.56
32.37
37.69
22.71
22.60
27.29
20.01
25.29
170
49
40
68
41
195
570
200
61
46
83
48
217
696
226
70
52
95
54
240
784
206
63
47
86
49
222
720
17.91
24.18
15.31
21.58
19.01
11.25
22.14
33.43
41.49
31.63
39.59
32.29
23.05
37.60
21.47
27.45
17.99
25.21
21.31
13.80
26.45
Mine operatives, not elsewhere classified ...................................................
Roustabouts .............................................................................................
Packing and inspecting operatives ..............................................................
Baggers ....................................................................................................
Production packagers ..............................................................................
Selectors, glasswares ..............................................................................
Painters, manufactured articles ...................................................................
Painters, automotive ................................................................................
Painters, production..................................................................................
Sewers and stitchers....................................................................................
Sewing machine operators:
Regular equipment, garm ent................................................................
Special equipment, garment ................................................................
Regular equipment, nongarment..........................................................
Special equipment, nongarment ..........................................................
170
61
906
215
612
32
166
40
113
919
239
81
981
238
661
35
205
56
132
967
259
85
1,041
250
704
35
222
59
145
1,065
243
79
993
242
669
33
206
55
134
987
41.00
31.42
8.30
10.64
7.94
8.84
23.42
40.04
17.34
5.25
52.69
37.94
14.93
16.32
15.08
10.93
33.46
45.96
29.04
15.93
43.44
29.43
9.67
12.75
9.35
3.75
24.05
37.34
19.02
7.39
616
89
144
40
634
96
161
45
702
106
175
49
647
98
164
46
2.96
8.61
12.08
13.10
14.02
19.98
21.22
21.74
5.15
11.00
13.58
14.41
Textile operatives .........................................................................................
Folders, hand ...........................................................................................
Spinners, fram e.........................................................................................
W eavers....................................................................................................
Transport equipment operatives...................................................................
Ambulance drivers and attendants ..........................................................
Busdrivers ................................................................................................
Chauffeurs ................................................................................................
Delivery and route workers .....................................................................
Industrial truck operators .........................................................................
Parking attendants....................................................................................
Railroad brake operators.........................................................................
Taxi drivers................................................................................................
Truckdrivers .............................................................................................
394
27
31
37
3,468
28
266
39
802
408
37
74
79
1,672
399
29
32
33
4,152
41
326
48
916
459
44
67
69
2,110
419
32
32
33
4,428
42
329
52
991
493
51
73
78
2,246
396
30
31
32
4,140
40
321
48
901
464
58
68
72
2,102
1.36
8.64
1.38
-11.18
19.70
45.30
22.49
24.63
14.28
12.50
21.56
-10.27
-12.59
26.16
6.53
19.29
4.18
-8.85
27.68
48.79
23.76
34.13
23.52
20.69
40.23
-1.26
-.87
34.30
.58
9.13
-.57
-11.45
19.35
40.86
20.65
24.76
12.33
13.60
58.07
-9.06
-8.98
25.69
All other operatives.......................................................................................
Asbestos and insulation workers..............................................................
Cutters, m achine.......................................................................................
Dressmakers, except factory ...................................................................
Filers, grinders, buffers, and chippers .....................................................
Fuel pump attendants and lubricators .....................................................
Furnace operators and tenders, except metal ........................................
Stationary boiler firers .........................................................................
Miscellaneous machine operatives:
Lumber and furniture ...........................................................................
Chemicals and allied products ............................................................
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics .....................................................
4,311
42
29
53
127
434
62
47
4,882
58
32
49
151
475
65
51
5,189
62
34
53
168
492
67
53
4,936
60
32
50
155
481
65
51
13.25
37.75
9.86
-8.33
19.56
9.51
4.97
6.80
20.38
47.32
16.86
-.54
33.04
13.40
9.15
10.99
14.52
41.52
11.83
-5.41
22.66
10.96
4.98
7.13
51
153
229
59
167
284
60
176
292
56
172
282
16.21
9.13
23.99
18.45
15.20
27.67
9.74
12.82
23.40
103
249
53
40
66
31
32
68
48
123
257
51
48
81
42
37
54
68
128
275
55
52
89
45
40
59
70
123
258
52
49
81
42
38
55
68
19.27
3.11
-2.36
19.52
22.68
34.02
15.46
-19.98
39.92
24.60
10.46
4.32
30.02
34.55
41.28
26.45
-13.07
45.20
18.90
3.69
-1.31
21.65
22.40
32.91
17.92
-19.24
41.45
Miscellaneous operatives, not elsewhere classified:
Durable goo ds.......................................................................................
Nondurable goods ................................................................................
Mixing operatives.......................................................................................
O ile rs ........................................................................................................
Photographic process workers ................................................................
Rotary drill operator helpers.....................................................................
Shear and slitter operators, m e ta l............................................................
Shoemaking machine operators ..............................................................
Surveyor helpers.......................................................................................
Digitized for
52 FRASER
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table 2.
Continued— Civilian employment in occupations with 25,000 workers or more, actual 1978 and projected 1990
Percent change, 1978-90
Employment (in thousands)
Occupation
1978
1990
Low-trend
1990
High-trend I
1990
High-trend II
Low-trend
High-trend 1
High-trend II
Tire changers and repairers.....................................................................
Winding operatives, not elsewhere classified ..........................................
Coil winders .........................................................................................
Wirers, electronic ....................................................................................
Wood machinists.......................................................................................
60
48
29
28
27
71
58
37
35
33
77
62
40
38
34
73
59
38
36
32
17.47
21.91
27.30
24.46
23.67
27.18
30.43
39.55
36.15
27.82
20.94
24.02
30.02
28.08
22.10
Service w o rke rs................................................................................................
Food service workers ..................................................................................
Bakers, bread and pastry.........................................................................
Bartenders ................................................................................................
Butchers and meat c u tte rs .......................................................................
Cooks, except private household ............................................................
Cooks, institutional................................................................................
Cooks, restaurant ................................................................................
Cooks, short order and specialty fast fo o d s ........................................
Food preparation and service workers, fast food restaurant ..................
Flosts/hostesses, restaurant, lounge, coffee shop .................................
Kitchen helpers.........................................................................................
Pantry, sandwich, and coffee makers .....................................................
Waiters/waitresses ..................................................................................
Waiters’ assistants....................................................................................
14,414
5,610
45
347
178
1,024
296
320
408
714
104
771
64
1,539
252
18,946
7,774
57
453
212
1,367
370
445
552
1,206
154
1,072
92
2,071
363
20,074
8,192
59
480
225
1,438
386
471
580
1,265
163
1,131
97
2,186
384
19,220
7,827
57
457
214
1,379
378
448
554
1,210
155
1,084
92
2,084
366
31.44
38.57
27.08
30.35
18.64
33.50
25.19
39.18
35.07
68.84
48.61
38.98
43.07
34.56
43.72
39.27
46.02
33.19
38.05
25.84
40.48
30.68
47.43
42.13
77.10
57.14
46.74
51.80
42.09
52.20
33.34
39.53
27.91
31.64
19.90
34.74
27.69
40.12
35.63
69.37
49.05
40.53
43.28
35.43
45.03
Janitors and sextons....................................................................................
Selected health service workers...................................................................
Medical assistants....................................................................................
Nurses’ aides and orderlies .....................................................................
Psychiatric a id e s .......................................................................................
Selected personal service w orkers..............................................................
Barbers ....................................................................................................
Child-care attendants................................................................................
Child-care workers ..................................................................................
Cosmetologists and womens’ hair stylists ...............................................
Elevator operators....................................................................................
Flight attendants .......................................................................................
Game and ride operators and concession w orkers.................................
Housekeepers, hotel and motel ..............................................................
Recreation facility attendants ..................................................................
Reducing instructors ................................................................................
School monitors .......................................................................................
Ushers, lobby attendants, and ticket ta k e rs ............................................
Welfare service aides ..............................................................................
2,585
1,251
81
1,089
77
1,547
114
35
398
434
45
51
28
49
65
26
37
40
84
3,257
1,921
116
1,683
115
2,028
142
55
581
530
59
64
37
67
83
29
38
46
126
3,504
2,051
123
1,801
120
2,206
160
60
615
603
64
68
38
74
85
35
38
46
132
3,317
1,963
116
1,725
116
2,108
149
59
600
566
60
65
36
69
82
32
38
46
130
25.96
53.53
44.20
54.56
49.50
31.08
23.90
56.26
46.10
22.22
30.70
26.82
33.10
35.70
28.33
12.22
3.03
15.44
51.15
35.52
63.93
52.27
65.40
56.20
42.56
40.06
67.85
54.55
38.89
40.89
34.56
35.85
50.95
31.02
35.84
3.41
14.50
57.25
28.30
56.90
43.52
58.43
49.86
36.20
30.14
66.53
50.76
30.43
32.30
27.75
29.47
39.86
27.63
25.21
2.78
13.87
55.24
Protective service w orkers...........................................................................
Correction officials and ja ile rs...................................................................
Crossing or bridge tenders.......................................................................
Crossing guards, school...........................................................................
Firefighters ................................................................................................
Fire officers................................................................................................
Guards and doorkeepers.........................................................................
Police detectives.......................................................................................
Police o ffice rs...........................................................................................
Police patrolmen/women.........................................................................
Private household workers...........................................................................
Child-care workers, private household.....................................................
Housekeepers, private household............................................................
Maids and servants, private household ............... ...................................
Supervisors, nonworking, service ................................................................
All other service w o rkers..............................................................................
1,586
95
27
38
200
46
591
59
94
358
1,160
486
118
530
189
484
2,098
152
32
48
256
59
801
72
119
459
982
412
100
449
254
633
2,189
154
33
49
260
60
868
74
121
467
993
417
101
455
270
670
2,120
152
32
49
256
59
820
72
119
460
988
414
100
452
256
640
32.28
60.28
18.07
28.55
27.62
28.56
35.52
23.06
26.68
28.02
-15.41
-15.32
-15.40
-15.20
34.12
30.76
38.02
63.08
20.76
30.81
29.88
30.81
46.80
25.33
28.93
30.26
-14.39
-14.29
-14.39
-14.19
42.27
38.33
33.71
60.55
18.21
28.79
27.86
28.79
38.73
23.30
26.91
28.25
-14.87
-14.78
-14.86
-14.67
35.10
32.29
Laborers, except fa rm .......................................................................................
Animal caretakers....................................................................................
Construction laborers, excluding carpenter helpers.................................
Highway maintenance workers ............................................................
Pipelayers.............................................................................................
Reinforcing-iron w orkers.......................................................................
Cannery workers.......................................................................................
Cleaners, vehicle.......................................................................................
Conveyor operators and tenders ............................................................
Garbage collectors ..................................................................................
Gardeners and groundkeepers, except farm ..........................................
Helpers, tra d e s .........................................................................................
Line service attendants ...........................................................................
O ff-bearers...............................................................................................
Riggers......................................................................................................
Stock handlers .........................................................................................
Order fille rs ...........................................................................................
Stock clerks, saies flo o r .......................................................................
Timbercutting and iogging workers ..........................................................
Fallers and bucke rs..............................................................................
5,902
88
277
170
43
31
82
118
55
110
639
928
27
25
28
918
352
566
70
43
6,955
113
348
211
54
42
80
150
62
137
738
1,161
32
28
33
1,131
407
724
59
36
7,441
122
365
215
60
45
84
159
68
148
789
1,255
34
28
35
1,210
445
766
63
38
7,078
124
352
212
55
43
89
160
63
137
765
1,193
32
26
34
1,137
405
731
61
37
17.83
27.63
25.74
24.44
25.48
34.50
-2.53
27.04
13.82
24.37
15.58
25.04
17.74
9.73
16.99
23.18
15.52
27.95
-15.96
-16.60
26.07
38.19
31.67
26.61
38.32
41.55
3.18
35.07
23.96
34.39
23.50
35.20
25.49
10.76
24.70
31.82
26.18
35.34
-10.90
-11.51
19.92
40.57
27.01
24.66
27.80
37.99
8.85
35.76
15.65
24.34
19.71
28.49
18.61 '
3.94
19.58
23.82
15.08
29.26
-13.58
-14.18
Farmers and farmworkers................................................................................
Farmers and farm m anagers.......................................................................
Farmers (owners and tenants) ................................................................
Farm managers.........................................................................................
Farm supervisors and iaborers.....................................................................
Farm supervisors.......................................................................................
Farm laborers...........................................................................................
2,775
1,486
1,445
41
1,289
32
1,257
2,193
1,231
1,200
31
963
25
938
2,426
1,355
1,321
34
1,071
28
1,044
2,327
1,281
1,248
34
1,046
27
1,019
-20.97
-17.18
-16.96
-25.02
-25.35
-22.40
-25.42
-12.57
-8.81
-8.61
-15.78
-16.90
-13.00
-17.00
-16.13
-13.76
-13.65
-17.65
-18.87
-14.25
-18.99
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
53
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW August 1981 • Occupational Employment Projections
tional Employment Statistics ( o e s ) Survey to collect
data on occupational staffing patterns of industries
more frequently. These data are obtained directly from
establishments by mail survey. The survey is a FederalState cooperative program in which data are collected
by State employment security agencies according to
standards, procedures, and methods developed by the
BLS. All nonagricultural industries, except private
households, are covered in this survey on a 3-year cycle
— manufacturing industries during the first year, and
roughly half of nonmanufacturing industries in each of
the next 2 years. Each industry is therefore surveyed ev
ery 3 years. Survey questionnaires are tailored to an in
dustry’s occupational structure. For example, the iron
and steel industry questionnaire does not list barber as
an occupation. Each questionnaire is limited to a maxi
mum of 200 occupations; residual categories, such as
“other professional and technical workers” are included
so that an establishment can list its total employment.
Employers are requested to identify large or emerging
occupations in their establishments, which are not
found on the questionnaire.
Because data for all States were not available until
the late 1970’s, it was not until 1980 that national ma
trix for 1978 based on OES survey data could be devel
oped. Occupational staffing patterns for the 1978 matrix
were derived from the OES surveys of manufacturing in
dustries in 1977; nonmanufacturing, except trade and
regulated industries in 1978; and trade and regulated in
dustries in 1979. Occupational employment estimates
for 1978 were obtained by applying the occupational
staffing pattern for each industry to the total wage-andsalary employment in that industry in 1978. The Bu
reau’s Current Employment Survey ( c e s ) was the
source of the industry totals. As a result of using the
OES survey as the data base, the number of detailed in
dustries and occupations in the Bureau’s industry-occu
pation matrix will increase substantially.
Differences among surveys
Wage-and-salary employment totals for agricultural
and private household industries were obtained from
the Current Population Survey ( c p s ) because the OES
survey and the CES do not cover employment in these
industries. Occupational distributions of employment in
these industries were developed from the census-based
matrix; detailed occupations in the census-based matrix
were reclassified in the OES occupational framework.
Because an establishment may have workers in more
occupations than the 200 listed on the questionnaire for
the employer’s industry, the OES surveys do not obtain
complete employment counts for all occupations. In
general, if survey data accounted for less than an esti-
Digitized 54
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
mated 90 percent of total employment in an occupation,
the data were collapsed into residual categories in the
matrix. (About 400 occupations were treated in this
manner.) If the survey accounted for more than an esti
mated 90 percent of an occupation’s employment, the
remainder was estimated on the basis of patterns from
the census-based matrix. Estimates of employment in
selected industries for about 200 occupations were de
veloped through this procedure, but the sum of these
estimates accounted for less than 4 percent of total na
tional employment.
The OES surveys do not cover self-employed workers
and unpaid family workers. Occupational employment
estimates for these classes of workers also were devel
oped from CPS and census-based matrix data and reclassi
fied into the OES occupational framework. However, be
cause of data limitations and resource constraints the
occupational estimates for self-employed and unpaid
family workers were not distributed across industries.
Consequently, industry/occupation cross-tabulations are
available only for wage-and-salary employment. To de
velop total employment estimates by occupation, em
ployment of wage-and-salary workers was added to
totals of self-employed and unpaid family workers.
Detailed occupational employment estimates in the
OES survey-based matrix for 1978-90 generally are not
comparable with those in previous census-based m atri
ces because of many major differences in the underlying
data sources. The census counts persons, whereas the
OES survey counts jobs. The employment total in the
OES matrix is higher than the total in the census matrix,
because one person may hold more than one job. The
difference between the numbers of jobs and of persons
employed in 1978 was roughly 10 percent, but it varied
among occupations. The census is a household survey,
while the OES study is directed at employers. Household
surveys generally are completed by one individual, who
reports for all members of the household. Employer
surveys are completed by an official of the responding
establishment and generally are based on records.
In the census, individuals report themselves in the oc
cupation in which they work the most hours. Respon
dents to the OES surveys are instructed to report em
ployees performing more than one job in the one that
requires the highest skill level; also, definitions that im
ply a specific skill level for each occupation are listed on
the questionnaire. In the census, the titles reported by
respondents are grouped into categories which may in
clude workers with greatly different skill levels; catego
ries usually take the title of the most prominent
occupation in that group. For example, the title “law
yer” includes lawyers and law clerks which are separate
titles in the OES survey.7
□
FOOTNOTES
' This article is one in a series presenting data from the ongoing
projections program. The first article reported on new labor force pro
jections (see Howard N. Fullerton, Jr., “The 1995 labor force: a first
look”, Monthly Labor Review, December 1980, pp. 11-21). The sec
ond article, appearing in this issue of the Review, gives new macroeco
nomic projections for 1985 and 1990. The third article, also in this
issue, describes projections of industry output and industry employ
ment for 1985 and 1990.
2 For the most recent census-based matrix, see George T. Silvestri,
The National Industry-Occupation Employment Matrix, 1970, 1978,
and Projected 1990, Bulletin 2086 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1981).
5 Statistics on employment in this article are based on a count of
jobs, as used in the Bureau’s Current Employment Surveys and Occu
pational Employment Statistics Surveys, rather than a count of per
sons as used in the Current Population Surveys and decennial census.
Because one worker may hold more than one job, employment on a
“jobs” concept is greater than employment on a “persons” concept.
Differences between these surveys are discussed in more detail else
where in this article.
Employment in this article is slighly different than that in the other
ones in this issue. Self-employed and unpaid family workers by indus
try are estimated by different methods. In addition, government em
ployment in this article is based in the BLS establishment survey. In
the other articles, government employment is based on National In
come Accounts data from the Department of Commerce.
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4 Later in 1981, employment projections for occupations with baseyear employment of 5,000 or more will be published in the industryoccupation matrix.
An important limitation should be kept in mind when evaluating
occupational employment projections that were generated by applying
the industry-occupational matrix to the various industry projections.
The occupational projections assume that all industries will have an
average occupational composition regardless of the changes that occur
in industry employment under the different scenarios. However, occu
pational composition of an increase or decrease in an industry’s total
employment may differ from the average occupational composition of
the industry as a result of changes in product mix, capacity utiliza
tion, and other factors. For example, differences in the assumptions
embodied in the various scenarios can produce shifts in an industry’s
product mix which increase employment requirements in some occu
pations, while reducing requirements in others.
6 For a detailed description of how the occupational employment
projections were developed, see Richard P. Oliver, Methodology for
Labor Force, Industry and Occupational Employment Projections to
1990, a BLS report to be published later this year.
For more information on the differences between the OES surveybased matrix and the census-based matrix, write to the Bureau of La
bor Statistics, Office of Economic Growth and Employment Projec
tions, Division of Occupational Outlook, Washington, D.C. 20212.
55
Family Budgets
Taxes, transportation mark 6-year high
in rise of autumn 1980 family budgets
Table 2. Percent change in four-person family budgets,
autumn 1979 to autumn 1980
Budget level
Component
Rising personal income taxes, and transportation and
homeowner costs contributed to the largest increases
since 1974 in the three hypothetical four-person family
budgets. In autumn 1980, average urban budget costs
totaled $14,044 at the lower level, $23,134 at the inter
mediate level, and $34,409 at the higher level (table 1).
From autumn 1979 to autumn 1980, the lower budget
rose 11.6 percent, the intermediate, 12.8 percent, and
the higher, 13.5 percent (table 2).
Consumption costs. Consumption costs rose by approxi
mately 10 percent in the lower budget and 10.5 percent
in the intermediate and higher budgets between autumn
1979 and autumn 1980. For each of the three levels, the
increase in transportation costs was higher than that of
any other consumption category. Homeowner costs also
showed a large percentage change for the intermediate
and higher budgets (there is no homeowner category in
the lower budget). Transportation and homeowner costs
also rose sharply during the previous year, autumn 1978
to autumn 1979.
Personal income taxes. The budgets include estimated
1980 Federal, State, and local tax payments. The large
increases in taxes, approximately 30 percent at the low
er level and 25 percent at both the intermediate and
Table 1. Annual budgets for a four-person urban family at
three levels of living, autumn 1980
Budget level
Component
Lower
Intermediate
Higher
Total budget......................
$14,044
$23,134
$34,409
Total family consumption .............
F o o d ......................................
Housing.................................
Transportation ......................
Clothing.................................
Personal c a re ........................
Medical care ........................
Other family consumption . . .
Other ite m s....................................
Social security and disability.........
Personal income ta x e s ..................
11,243
4,321
2,608
1,160
907
352
1,298
597
583
881
1,337
16,969
5,571
5,106
2,116
1,292
471
1,303
1,109
957
1,427
3,781
23,266
7,024
7,747
2,751
1,888
668
1,359
1,829
1,610
1,608
7,924
N ote:
Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not equal totals.
Digitized56
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Lower
Intermediate
Total b u d g e t...........................
11.6
12.8
13.5
Total consumption .............................
Total consumption less shelter .........
F o o d ...............................................
Housing..........................................
Shelter1 ......................................
Renter c o s ts ...........................
Homeowner costs 2 ................
Housefurnishings and operations
Transportation ...............................
Clothing..........................................
Personal c a re .................................
Medical care .................................
Other family consumption .............
Other items ....................................
Social security and disability .........
Personal income taxes ..................
9.9
10.5
10.1
10.4
11.1
11.9
8.2
12.6
8.5
14.3
4.6
8.8
10.8
8.6
9.1
13.6
24.7
10.4
9.9
10.4
11.1
12.1
8.2
12.6
8.5
14.1
4.7
9.0
10.8
8.6
10.2
10.5
8.3
8.2
8.2
8.5
15.5
4.7
9.0
10.8
8.5
8.2
12.8
29.6
Higher
8.9
13.8
24.6
' Includes only rental housing in the lower budget.
2 On the assumption that the home was purchased 6 years ago, these costs reflect
changes in purchase prices and mortgage interest rates from 1973 to 1974 and changes in
property taxes, insurance, fuel and utilities, and repairs and maintenance from 1979 to 1980.
higher levels, are a result- of the Federal income tax
structure, and that of many States, which call for higher
tax rates as income rises. Although the percentage in
crease in income taxes for the lower budget was higher
than for the other levels, the impact of the increases
was more pronounced at the intermediate and higher
levels because taxes constitute a larger share of the total
budget at these levels.
Housing and utilities. Housing increased by 8.3 percent
between autumn 1979 and autumn 1980 in the lower
budget, which includes only rental units. Both rentals
and homeownership are included in the intermediate
and higher budgets and these costs rose by 11.1 percent
for both levels. As in the previous year, large increases
in homeowner costs for mortgage interest, and fuel and
utilities contributed to greater increases in housing costs
at the intermediate and higher levels than at the lower
level. Also, the impact of the increases on total con
sumption was greater at the higher levels because hous
ing accounts for a larger share of the consumption
dollar at these levels.
The program and its methods. The family budgets repre
sent the costs of three hypothetical lists of goods and
should spend their money.
The 1980 consumption budgets were estimated by ap
plying price changes for individual areas from autumn
1979 to autumn 1980, as reported in the Consumer
Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical
Workers ( c p i -w ), to the appropriate autumn 1979 bud
get costs for each main class of goods and services. As a
result of the revision of the CPI program in January
1978, individual area price changes from autumn 1979
to autumn 1980 were available for only 25 of the 44
geographic areas (table 3). The urban U.S. average in
cludes estimates for the areas previously shown, howev
er, using price data for the appropriate region and
services that were specified in the mid-1960’s to portray
three relative standards of living described as lower, in
termediate, and higher. These budgets are for a precisely
defined urban family of four including: a 38-year-old
husband employed full time, a wife not employed out
side the home, a boy age 13, and a girl age 8. The budget
level includes for each, average inventories of clothing,
house furnishings, major durables, and other articles.
The budgets pertain only to an urban family with these
specified characteristics; no budget program exists for ru
ral families. The budgets are not intended to represent a
minimum level of adequate income or a subsistence level
of living, nor do they indicate how families do or
Table 3.
Indexes of comparative costs based on an intermediate budget for a four-person family,1autumn 1980
(U.S. urban average cost = 100)
Cost of family consumption
Area
Total
budget
Transportation7
Housing
Food
Total
consump
tion
Total
Food at
home
Total4
Renter5
Homeowner6
Total
Auto
mobile
owners
Clothing
Personal
care
Medical
care8
Other
family
consump
tion9
Personal
income
taxes
Urban United S ta te s .............................
Metropolitan areas2 ......................
Nonmetropolitan areas3 .............
100
102
91
100
102
93
100
101
94
100
100
98
100
102
90
100
104
82
100
103
85
100
100
98
100
102
93
100
101
97
100
102
93
100
103
88
100
103
85
100
104
83
Northeast:
Boston, Mass..................................
Buffalo, N.Y.....................................
New York-Northeastern N.J...........
Philadelphia, Pa.-N.J.......................
Pittsburgh, Pa.................................
Nonmetropolitan areas3 ...............
117
104
116
105
97
101
113
101
109
103
97
100
104
102
111
112
103
100
106
104
109
107
103
104
130
99
122
103
88
107
113
96
110
86
84
88
143
100
132
109
86
115
117
107
92
97
104
105
133
101
104
110
103
100
110
116
93
72
99
100
96
90
103
91
95
84
92
82
102
106
91
88
111
101
108
100
101
85
137
117
147
118
97
102
North Central:
Chicago, Ill -Northwestern Ind. .. .
Cincinnati, Ohio-Ky.-Ind..................
Cleveland, Ohio ...........................
Detroit, Mich....................................
Kansas City, Mo.-Kans...................
Milwaukee, Wis...............................
Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minn.............
St. Louis, Mo.-lll..............................
Nonmetropolitan areas3 ................
101
98
101
100
97
104
102
96
92
103
99
103
100
98
101
98
97
93
101
102
101
99
99
97
99
105
93
101
103
98
100
100
95
98
105
97
103
92
103
102
89
104
96
87
92
105
82
86
95
87
99
107
88
97
106
93
109
109
86
108
93
82
87
104
99
99
97
106
101
98
105
96
118
94
98
95
101
96
94
104
91
91
116
106
96
106
107
100
97
105
99
92
125
106
121
102
104
106
99
109
95
100
105
99
99
85
90
84
114
99
105
99
102
104
106
98
87
94
95
96
100
93
118
123
91
86
South:
Atlanta, Ga......................................
Baltimore, Md.................................
Dallas, Tex......................................
Houston, Tex...................................
Washington, D.C.-Md.-Va...............
Nonmetropolitan areas3 ...............
91
101
90
93
109
85
93
99
95
98
105
89
95
97
95
98
105
93
94
95
92
95
106
96
82
100
85
88
106
82
80
108
97
85
113
70
76
92
79
84
105
73
102
97
104
100
100
96
97
96
99
95
98
91
110
103
97
109
98
89
97
104
107
120
110
93
89
95
110
117
104
87
99
101
98
98
111
84
83
113
65
70
130
70
West:
Denver, Colo...................................
Los Angeles-Long Beach, Calif. ..
San Diego, Calif..............................
San Francisco-Oakland, Calif. . . .
Seattle-Everett, Wash.....................
Honolulu, H a w a ii...........................
Nonmetropolitan areas3 ...............
99
97
98
107
101
123
95
100
99
100
107
105
115
94
94
97
96
101
100
125
94
93
94
92
101
98
130
97
97
93
99
108
108
115
90
87
123
106
154
143
145
90
94
87
102
100
101
108
84
103
104
101
108
101
103
97
98
103
96
107
96
98
92
133
95
94
111
114
106
111
99
98
99
118
115
115
99
93
129
119
116
111
107
93
105
92
101
104
108
112
86
94
87
89
105
81
165
98
Anchorage, A la s k a ...............................
128
130
117
121
148
181
132
127
121
114
138
160
98
128
'The family consists of an employed husband age 38, a wife not employed outside the
home, an 8-year-old girl, and a 13-year-old boy.
2As defined in 1960-61. For a detailed description of these and previous geographical
boundaries, see the 1967 edition of S ta n d a rd M etropolitan S ta tistic a l A reas, prepared by the
Office of Management and Budoet.
3 Places with population of 2,500 to 500,000; data for some previously shown are no longer
available.
4 Housing includes shelter, housefurnishings, and household operations.
6Ftenter costs include average contract rent plus the cost of required amounts of heating
fuel, gas, electricity, water, specified equipment, and insurance on household contents.
6 Homeowner costs include interest and principal payments plus taxes, insurance on house
and contents, water, refuse disposal, heating fuel, gas, electricity, specified equipment, and
home repairs and maintenance cost.
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7The average costs of automobile owners and nonowners in the intermediate budget were
weighted by the following proportions of families: Boston, New York, Chicago, and Philadelphia
80 percent for owners, 20 percent for nonowners; Baltimore, Cleveland, Detroit, Los Angeles,
Pittsburgh, San Francisco, St. Louis, and Washington, D.C., with populations of 1.4 million or
more in 1960, 95 percent for automobile owners and 5 percent for nonowners; all other areas
100 percent for automobile owners.
8 In total medical care, the average costs of medical insurance were weighted by the follow
ing proportions: 30 percent for families paying full cost of insurance; 26 percent for families
paying half costs; 44 percent for families covered by noncontributory insurance plans (paid by
employer).
9 Other family consumption includes average costs for reading, recreation, tobacco products,
alcoholic beverages, education, and miscellaneous expenditures.
57
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW August 1981 • Family Budgets
population size classes, which are available from the CPI.
Nonmetropolitan areas, which have always been shown
as a separate class, have been similarly updated.
A comprehensive revision of the Family Budgets Pro
gram, in line with past revisions, is currently being con
sidered by the Bureau. A committee of experts has
completed an in-depth study of the family budget meth
odology and has recommended a new approach.1 The
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committee’s report is being reviewed by the Bureau staff
and by other concerned persons.
□
--------- FOOTNOTE---------' See Harold W. Watts, “Special panel suggests changes in BLS
Family Budget Program,” M o n th ly L a b o r R eview, December 1980, pp.
3-10.
Upward pressures on prices
Among the most exasperating and puzzling of recent economic phe
nomena is the apparent intractability of the inflation rate. Once start
ed, an inflation becomes difficult to subdue. It seems to develop a
momentum of its own, independent of other basic economic condi
tions. It resists or at best responds only sluggishly to traditional re
strictive policies. Its persistence in the face of high unemployment and
excess capacity has resulted in the addition of the term stagflation to
the economist’s lexicon.
What accounts for the stickiness of the inflation rate? Why is it so
policy-resistant and difficult to control? Why is it so slow to deceler
ate even when demand is slack? Many economists believe that the an
swers lie in the mechanism through which inflationary impulses are
transmitted through the economy. Embedded in this mechanism are
certain delays or lags that may slow the spread of inflation over the
total price structure and may also prolong its duration. Particular
prices that lag behind general inflationary movements have to catch
up later to reestablish their relative position in the price structure.
This lag/catchup characteristic of the inflationary transmission mech
anism is offered by some as an explanation of why strong upward
pressures on prices persist long after demand slackens.
— T hom as M. H um ph rey
Essays on Inflation, 2d ed.
(Richmond, Va., Federal
Reserve Bank of Richmond,
1980), p. 49.
M ajor Agreements
Expiring Next M onth
This list of collective bargaining agreements expiring in September is based on contracts on file
in the Bureau’s Office of Wages and Industrial Relations. The list includes agreements covering
1,000 workers or more.
U n io n 1
Industry
Employer and location
Number of
workers
AFC Industries, Inc., W-K-M Valve Division (Missouri City, T e x .) ...........
Machinery ...................................
Machinists
.................................................
1,050
Borg-Wamer Corp., Morse Chain Division (Ithaca, N.Y.)
...........................
Machinery ...................................
Machinists
................................................
1,150
Cessna Aircraft Co. (Wichita, K a n s.)...................................................................
Columbia Broadcasting System, Inc. (Interstate)..............................................
Confectioners Industrial Relations Board, Inc. (New York & New Jersey)
Transportation equipment . . . .
Communication...........................
Food products ...........................
Machinists ................................................
Electrical Workers (IBEW) ...................
Bakery, Confectionery and Tobacco
Workers
6,000
1,400
1,100
Dresser Industries, Inc., Transportation (Depew, N.Y.) ................................
Duquesne Light & Allegheny County Steam Heating Companies
(Pittsburgh, Pa.)
Primary m e t a ls ...........................
Utilities ........................................
Steelworkers ..............................................
Electrical Workers (IBEW) ...................
1,300
1,900
Hotel Association of Washington, D.C..................................................................
H o t e ls ...........................................
Hotel and Restaurant Employees . . . .
10,000
Kellogg Co., Master Agreement (Interstate)......................................................
Food products
Grain Millers
National Electrical Contractors Association, Inc. (T e x a s)..............................
National Steel & Shipbuilding Companies, 2 Agreements
(Sari Diego, Calif.)
Northeastern States Boilermakers Employers (Interstate)2 ...........................
Northern California Association Bakery Employers (California) ................
C onstruction................................
Transportation equipment . . . .
...........................................
5,350
2,700
5,200
Construction................................
Food Products ...........................
Electrical Workers (IBEW) ...................
Machinists; Carpenters; Painters and
Iron Workers
Boilerm akers..............................................
Teamsters (Ind.) ......................................
Ohio Valley Field Agreement (Interstate)2 .........................................................
Construction................................
Boilerm akers..............................................
2,600
Pet Inc., Dairy Group (Interstate).........................................................................
Philadelphia Hotel-Motor Inn Association (Philadelphia, P a . ) ......................
Prudential Insurance Co. of America (Interstate)..............................................
Food Products ...........................
H o t e ls ...........................................
Insurance ......................................
T eam sters...................................................
Hotel and Restaurant Employees . . . .
Insurance W orkers...................................
1,200
1,500
16,500
Raytheon Co. (M assachusetts)..............................................................................
Rockwell International Corp., 2 Divisions (Reading, P a . ) ..............................
Electrical products......................
Machinery ...................................
Electrical Workers (IBEW) ...................
Steelworkers ..............................................
9,000
1,300
Scott Paper Co., Chester Plant (Chester, P a . ) ...................................................
Square D Co. (Lexington, K y .) ..............................................................................
Sweetheart Cup Corp. & Northwest Cone Co. (Chicago, 111.) ......................
P ap er..............................................
Electrical products......................
P ap er..............................................
Paperworkers ...........................................
Electrical Workers (IBEW) ...................
Retail, Wholesale, and Department
Stores
1,850
1,000
1,400
Wire & Metal Products Manufacturers Guild, Inc. (New York and
New Jersey)
Fabricated metal products
Teamsters (Ind.)
1,800
...........................
. . .
Government activity
California: Stockton Fire Department .................................................................
Florida: Dade County Transit A g e n c y .................................................................
St. Petersburgh Blue Collar Bargaining U n it ......................................
Tampa Transportation Department, General Em ployees................
Ohio: Columbus Police Department ...................................................................
1Affiliated with AFL-CIO except where noted as independent (Ind.)
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Public s a fe ty ................................
Transportation ...........................
Multidepartments ......................
Transportation ...........................
Law enforcem ent........................
......................................
1,000
3,800
Employee organization 1
Fire F ig h te r s..............................................
Transport W orkers...................................
Firemen and O ilers...................................
Transit Union ...........................................
Police (Ind.) ..............................................
2Industry area (group of companies signing same contract).
1,500
1,200
1,150
2,750
1,100
Developments in
Industrial Relations
Mine workers get ‘set’ quarterly wage adjustments
The United Mine Workers settled on May 28 with
the Bituminous Coal Operators Association ( b c o a ),
ending a strike that began March 27. The union later
negotiated a separate but similar agreement for 10,000
mine construction workers who had been on strike since
May 1, and also negotiated a less costly agreement for
the 20,000 miners it represents in the nine-county hard
c o a l r e g io n in E a ste r n P e n n s y lv a n ia . These w o r k e r s had
been on strike since the May 1 expiration of their prior
contract.
The 40-month bituminous coal production contract
was ratified on June 6 by a 2 to 1 margin, but some
50,000 of the 160,000 miners missed work after the
scheduled resumption of production because of picket
lines at some locations by the mine construction work
ers. Union members apparently approved the latest
agreement because the operators made concessions on
some of the provisions of a March settlement that the
miners had rejected by a 4 to 1 margin.
One of the disputed points was resolved when the op
erators agreed to continue paying royalties to the work
ers’ benefit funds on coal purchased for sale or resale.
The miners had contended that elimination of the royal
ty payment would have led to widespread purchase of
coal from nonunion mines. The royalty rate for pur
chased coal was raised, in stages, to $2,236 per ton,
from the $ 1.895-rate that applied under the March 1978
agreement. (Royalty rates also were increased on coal
produced by the 130 BCOA-member companies and the
980 other companies that had agreed in advance to ac
cept the same terms as the BCOA.) This concession was
partly offset by providing that current and future wid
ows of miners who retired prior to December 6, 1974,
will receive a monthly pension of $95, effective March
1, 1982, instead of the $100-a-month benefit that would
have been effective January 1, 1982, under the rejected
contract. The 1978 agreement did not call for a pension
for these widows.
The latest accord terminated the Arbitration Review
“Developments in Industrial Relations” is prepared by George Ruben
and other members of the staff of the Office of Wages and Industrial
Relations, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and is largely based on infor
mation from secondary sources.
60
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Board, as had the rejected accord, but the union agreed
that the board’s existing decisions would serve as prece
dents in settling future grievances. There also was a
provision for a joint committee to recommend a substi
tute for the board. The board was established by the
1978 contract to make final decisions on grievances and
had been criticized by miners as favoring management.
The parties dropped a provision of the March settle
ment that would have established a 45-day probation
ary period for new employees.
The approved contract also gave miners more
protection against layoffs than the rejected settlement
by prohibiting operators from contracting out work or
leasing coal lands or operations if it deprives UMW
members of work they had normally performed in the
past. The 1978 contract had required contractors and
lessees to employ only UMW members but this provi
sion had been invalidated by a 1980 court decision.
The union did not win its demand for restoration of a
cost-of-living clause providing automatic pay adjust
ments based on the movement of the BLS Consumer
Price Index. (The cost-of-living clause was established
in the 1974 settlement, but was terminated in the 1978
settlement.) However, it did win “set” quarterly pay in
creases designated as cost-of-living adjustments. The
15-cent increases (followed by a final 30-cent increase in
June 1984) begin in March 1982.
The wage package totaled $3.60 an hour (compared
with $3.30 under the rejected agreement) to compensate
for the longer term of the agreement. Included were in
creases of $1.20 an hour effective on resumption of
work, 50 cents in June 1982, and 40 cents in June 1983.
(The remainder of the $3.60 is comprised of the “set”
quarterly adjustments.) After the final increase in June
1984, hourly rates will range from $12,524 to $14,165
for underground workers in deep mines, $13,546 to
$14,928 for workers in strip and auger mines, and
$13,507 to $14,114 for workers in preparation plants
and other surface facilities for deep or surface mines.
Virtually all other terms of the rejected settlement
were incorporated without change into the May con
tract. These provisions included:
•
Establishment of a joint committee to make a rec
ommendation on the employers’ demand that each
company should establish its own pension plan
providing a standardized schedule of benefits, in
place of the current common plan funded by all
companies. The employers said that the change
was necessary to control pension costs, asserting
that they were faced with substantial unfunded li
abilities because the joint fund is required to pro
vide benefits to retirees for some service accrued
while working for companies no longer in busi
ness.
•
Changes in pension benefits, including a three-step
increase totaling $40 a month for employees who
retired prior to December 6, 1974, after 20 years
of service, bringing their pension to $315. Em
ployees who retired between December 6, 1974,
and the effective date of the new contract received
a $25-a-month increase. The pension rate for fu
ture retirees was increased by $1 in both the sec
ond and third years, bringing it to $15.50 a
month for each of the first 10 years of service, $16
for each of the next 10 years, $16.50 for each of
the next 10 years, and $17 for each year of service
in excess of 30.
•
The adoption of a dental plan for miners and their
dependents that covers up to $750 of services a
year for each person. Employees contribute $2 a
month toward the cost of this plan. Life insurance
for active miners was increased to $25,000 from
$12,000, and the double indemnity coverage for
accidental death was retained. The current $150-aweek sickness and accident benefit was increased,
in three steps, to $185 in the last contract year.
Under the May settlement, miners received a
$ 150-bonus on resumption of work. The March settle
ment did not provide for such a bonus but miners had
received a $ 100-bonus when they ended their 111-day
strike in 1978. Other economic provisions included a
$25-increase in the $125 annual protective clothing al
lowance; a 10-cent-an-hour increase in the 20-cent eve
ning shift differential and in the 30-cent midnight shift
differential; an additional paid holiday, bringing the to
tal to 11; and a revision giving employees the right to
work on their existing birthday holiday (or a scheduled
workday if the birthday falls on a day for which work
was not scheduled) at triple-time pay.
Despite the duration of the walkout, there was no
major impact on the operations of coal users. Accord
ing to the Department of Energy, electric utility compa
nies had built up larger than normal stockpiles of coal
in anticipation of a walkout; when the strike ended,
they had consumed less than 10 percent of their re
serves. Also, nonunion coal operators generally contin
ued to produce during the walkout. According to the
BCOA, the operators that bargain with the UMW
accounted for only 44 percent of the Nation’s soft coal
production in 1980, compared with 70 percent in 1970.
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Anthracite settlement
The May 27 accord between the United Mine Work
ers and the Anthracite Operators Wage Negotiating
Committee provided for a total of $1.70 an hour in
“set” wage increases over the 3-year term — $1 effective
on June 1, 1981, and 35 cents on the first and second
anniversaries. The 2,500 workers also will be eligible to
receive up to 48 cents in increases as a result of the con
tinuation of the provision for automatic semiannual
cost-of-living increases calculated at 1 cent an hour for
each 0.4-point increase in the BLS Consumer Price Index
for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (1967 =
100). Under the prior contract, they had received the
50-cent maximum in cost-of-living increases plus $1.10
in set increases.
The employers’ payment to the pension fund— which
is separate from the funds for soft coal miners— was in
creased to $1.60 a ton, from $1.50, and a 20-cent rate
was established for high ash coal. There was no indica
tion if the additional financing will enable the fund
trustees to increase the $30-a-month pension being paid
to the 10,500 retirees. When the fund was established in
1946, retirees received $100 a month.
Other terms included a $100-a-year clothing allow
ance (formerly $75); a 3-step increase in the $450 pay
for the 2-week vacation period, bringing it to $625; two
additional paid personal days, bringing the total to four
a year (employees continue to receive 10 paid holidays a
year); and $125-a-week sickness and accident benefit
(formerly $100).
‘Comparable work’ decision
A recent Supreme Court ruling was hailed as a major
step toward acceptance of the “comparable worth” ap
proach to ending unwarranted disparities between earn
ings of men and women. In general, proponents of the
“comparable worth” theory contend that women should
be paid the same as m en— even if their jobs are differ
ent— if the jobs are of comparable worth to society.
The court broadened the basis for pay discrimination
cases by finding that a woman may not be paid less for
a job simply because she is a woman. As a result of this
decision, women who claim that their wage rates have
been undervalued because of intentional sex discrimina
tion may file suit under Title VII of the Civil Rights
Act, even though they do not perform work equal to
that of male coworkers. Previously, the only remedy for
a pay discrimination claim was under the Equal Pay
Act of 1963, which bars unequal pay for equal work.
The case was initiated in 1973 by four matrons at the
Washington County, Oreg., jail who charged that they
were paid 35 percent less than male guards at the facili61
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW August 1981 • Developments in Industrial Relations
ty, despite a county study that indicated only a 5-per
cent difference was justified. The matrons sought a rem
edy under Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964,
which prohibits sex discrimination in employment.
In the majority opinion, Justice William J. Brennan,
Jr., said that Congress has indicated that a “broad ap
proach” to the definition of equal employment opportu
nity is essential to overcoming and undoing the effect of
discrimination . . . . We must therefore avoid interpreta
tions of Title VII that deprive victims of discrimination
of a remedy, without clear congressional mandate.”
In the minority opinion, Justice William Rehnquist,
joined by three other judges, accused Brennan of mak
ing “public policy.” Rehnquist said the legislative histo
ry of the two acts “clearly establishes” that Congress
intended Title VII of the Civil Rights Act to be limited
to violations of the Equal Pay Act.
As a result of the majority finding, the case was
remanded to the Federal District Court, which had ini
tially ruled that the matron jobs were not equal to the
guard jobs and, therefore, did not meet the require
ments of the only applicable law, the Equal Pay Act.
gress would be inconsistent with the command set forth
in the statue itself.”
Brennan said that the legislative history of the Act
“demonstrates conclusively that Congress was fully
aware that the Act would impose real and substantial
costs of compliance on industry and believed that such
costs were part of the cost of doing business.”
Justice William H. Rehnquist, joined by Chief Justice
Warren E. Burger, dissented on grounds that the Con
gress had not provided adequate guidance to the execu
tive branch in administration of the law. Justice Potter
Stewart contended that OSHA had not adequately sup
ported its estimate of the cost of the regulation. Justice
Lewis F. Powell did not participate in the case.
While upholding the overall decision of the U.S.
Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia, the Su
preme Court did disagree with the lower court’s finding
that workers who must be transferred for health reasons
to other jobs within a textile factory be protected
against loss of earnings. The Court held that OSHA had
not proven the need for this requirement, and ordered
the lower court to hold further hearings on the matter.
Supreme Court upholds cotton dust standard
Value of meals or lodging found not taxable
The Supreme Court ruled that the Occupational Safe
ty and Health Administration must protect workers
from exposure to toxic substances to the greatest extent
feasible, without regard to the balance between cost and
benefits. The decision involved OSHA’s cotton dust stan
dard, issued in 1978 and later challenged in Federal dis
trict court by the American Textile Manufacturers
Institute and 12 individual textile companies. The com
panies asserted that the Occupational Safety and Health
Act of 1970 required the agency to determine that the
industry’s cost to implement the regulation bear a rea
sonable relationship to its benefit to workers.
Justice William J. Brennan, Jr., writing for the m ajor
ity, said that the Congress made the only necessary
cost-benefit analysis 11 years ago when, in enacting the
Occupational Safety and Health Act, “It chose to place
preeminent value on assuring employees a safe and
healthful working environment.
“Congress itself defined the basic relationship be
tween costs and benefits,” Brennan said, “by placing
the ‘benefit’ of worker health above all other consider
ations save those making attainment of this ‘benefit’
unachievable. Any standard based on a balancing of
costs and benefits by the Secretary [of Labor] that
strikes a different balance than that struck by the Con
The extent to which fringe benefits can be taxed was
further defined when the Supreme Court ruled 6 to 3
that the Internal Revenue Service (irs ) cannot collect
unemployment and social security taxes on the value of
meals or lodging provided by employers. The ruling did
not apply to cash allowances for meals or lodging,
which the court had previously ruled as being taxable.
The Rowan Cos., a Houston oil and gas drilling con
cern, provided meals and lodging to its employees on
offshore drilling rigs so that they would not have to be
transported to shdre each night. The IRS ordered the
company to treat the value of the meals and lodging as
wages in determining the social security taxes to be paid
by the company and its employees and unemployment
taxes to be paid by the company. Rowan sued for a re
fund but lost in Federal district court and on appeal,
leading to the appeal to the Supreme Court.
Justice Lewis Powell, writing for the majority, said it
would be contradictory to consider these benefits as
wages for social security and unemployment insurance
tax purposes because the IRS does not subject such bene
fits to income taxes.
In a dissenting opinion, the other three justices said
that the IRS regulations were “a permissible interpreta
tion” of Federal tax laws.
□
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Book Reviews
Industrial relations research: begging for answers
Collective Bargaining and Industrial Relations: From
Theory to Policy and Practice. By Thomas A.
Kochan. Homewood, 111., Richard D. Irwin, Inc.,
1980. 523 pp. $18.95.
At the 1979 Industrial Relations Research Associa
tion meeting, Thomas A. Kochan and others observed
that the years 1960 through 1975 had not been produc
tive in spawning meaningful industrial relations re
search. Kochan encouraged researchers to relate studies
to measurable indicators, such as duration of strikes or
employee turnover, and to use these indicators as de
pendent variables in analyzing parts of the industrial re
lations system. At about the same time, one of
Kochan’s former students, John C. Anderson, criticized
John Dunlop’s “Industrial Relations System” of 1958,
the model which has been the focus of industrial rela
tions research for a score of years. He termed it a “tax
onomy which fosters descriptive rather than explanatory
research . . . due in part to the failure of the industrial
relations system to present testable hypotheses” and a
neglect of “possible influences from the wider economic,
political, legal, and social systems.”
Kochan, one of the foremost industrial relations re
searchers today, attempts to correct the perceived defi
ciencies in the focus of industrial relations research in
“Collective Bargaining and Industrial Relations: From
Theory to Policy and Practice.” He sees the industrial
relations field to be at the “preparadymic” stage of de
velopment and offers a model or paradym within which
future industrial relations and collective bargaining re
search can be structured. The book, seemingly intended
as a textbook for courses in industrial relations re
search, also contains a wealth of research questions
which are begging for answers.
The answers Kochan wants discovered must be based
on empirical research. The case method or descriptive
study would appear too narrow in application for the
Kochan paradym, and the findings Kochan accepts gen
erally are based on some kind of quantitative analysis.
Despite the frequent comment, “ . . . to date no mean
ingful empirical studies have emerged which conclusive
ly support the arguments summarized here . . . ,” there
are many studies which Kochan accepts. He emphasizes
that the study of labor relations is an interdisciplinary
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effort, as he draws upon the work of psychologists,
management scientists, economists, and others to illumi
nate the theory.
Kochan proposes that industrial relations should be
studied around four dependent variables: (1) the negoti
ations process (2) the outcomes of bargaining (3) the
administration of the bargaining relationship, and (4)
the union-management change process. These dependent
variables are subject to the explanatory variables: (1)
the union as a bargaining organization (2) management
as a bargaining organization (3) the structure of bar
gaining, and (4) the environmental context of bargain
ing.
The book’s organization then seems to follow a re
verse of the order of taking up the variables. After de
scribing his analytical framework, Kochan expounds
first upon the explanatory variables, then the dependent
variables. There are chapters on the environment of col
lective bargaining, the structure of collective bargaining,
the union as a bargaining organization, and two chap
ters on management as a bargaining organization. These
are followed by chapters describing the dependent vari
ables: the negotiations process, dispute resolution (a
special case in negotiations), outcomes of bargaining,
administration of the agreement, and the dynamics of
change in union-management relations.
The author offers numerous insights into these vari
ables, using prior research and raw data not previously
analyzed. With both kinds of inputs, Kochan skillfully
analyzes or reanalyzes the data and fits them into the
model. Of particular note is the analysis of a 1978 Con
ference Board survey of 668 large unionized firms. From
this survey, much previously unknown data were ana
lyzed to obtain indicators of concepts such as the extent
of pattern bargaining in U.S. industry, the structure for
decisionmaking during negotiations in the majority of
firms, and the importance of economic versus noneco
nomic outcomes in bargaining.
Throughout the book, Kochan uses examples from
both the private and public sectors. He devotes one
chapter exclusively to the public sector and compares
the two sectors in several instances. In the section on
impasse procedures, he delves deeply into factfinding
and interest arbitration as impasse resolution techniques
but hastens to mention that these procedures are often
used in the public sector and hardly used in the private
sector.
63
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW August 1981 • Book Reviews
The author skillfully weaves historical material into
each subject presented. His first chapter is a historical
overview, but the reader gains more historical insights
from the remaining chapters concerning specific subject
matter.
Kochan’s work in industrial research has made him a
leading authority on “quantifying the seemingly
unquantifiable.” Using large samples and the technique
of regression analysis, he is able to show the amount of
variation in a given industrial relations environment
produced by each explanatory variable and then to
draw inferences from the sample to the general popula
tion. These techniques are well known to researchers,
yet have not been applied often because the questions
for study did not require quantitative analysis. Most of
the questions posed by Kochan require such analysis
for proper responses.
This textbook is the best available for introducing in
dustrial relations students to applied research. Its
wealth of research questions provides a starting point
for any student who wonders, “What can I do that has
not been done previously?” The book should be in the
possession of all industrial relations Ph.D. students and
would also be a welcome addition to the shelves of any
one interested in performing industrial relations re
search.
— Ja m e s K . M
cCollum
A ssistant Professor
D epartm ent of M anagem ent
Auburn U niversity
The abuse of private power
The Squeeze. By James Dale Davidson. New York,
Summit Books, Inc., A division of Simon and
Schuster, 1980. 281 pp. $11.95.
James Dale Davidson offers a fresh approach to ana
lyzing “The squeeze” being put on the public by the
manipulation of the “ Rules of society” for the private
benefit of those who have the power to make and
change them.
Davidson is an excellent writer. His presentation is
cynical, possibly overdone, but apparently truthful, cer
tainly startling, very readable, humorous, and as inter
esting as a novel. His very serious theme is that powers
used for personal advantage are having a debilitating, if
not disastrous, effect on the moral fiber of this Nation.
The author apparently intends to include on his list
all offenders who misuse these powers. But he appears
to treat some parties lightly, or to ignore them altogeth
er. His primary targets are government politicians, in
general, and government employees, in particular, but
others, such as lawyers, come in for their share of criti
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cism. Corporate executives, seemingly a most likely tar
get, are missing from the list of those who exercise their
considerable (political) power for personal advantage.
Doctors and dentists come out almost unscathed, and
the American Medical Association is not touched. In
stead, Davidson concentrates on the medical profession
in general. “The questionable effectiveness of modern
medicine,” at all, and “the fact that government regula
tions make any medical problem the property of the
doctor.”
Davidson argues that fluctuations in life expectancy,
often credited to “advances” in medical science, are
more properly related to changes in economic condi
tions or the mode of life adopted by the individual. In
his words, “the popular impression that doctors have
succeeded in making people live longer is virtually with
out foundation.”
He maintains that the causes and cures for the declin
ing living standards of the middle class run far deeper
than conservative-liberal partisanship. For purposes of
his analysis, he redefines capital as either productive,
static, or transcendental.
“Productive capital” is that wealth devoted to the
production of goods and services, the “basics of all cap
ital accumulation.” “Static capital,” for example,
diamonds and art, produces nothing but is a means of
storing or increasing the wealth of an individual. But
“transcendental capital” is the overlooked form of
wealth, derived from (the possession of) power, which is
used for the benefit of the individual at the expense of
society and causes havoc in its functioning.
The factors we are accustomed to thinking of as po
litical and noneconomic actually do impinge heavily on
the economic system. Indeed, “the increasing value of
transcendental claims reduces the worth of every pro
ductive asset, drawing away and consuming hundreds
of billions of dollars annually.” Thus, “The squeeze” is
“the continued reduction in the value of productive ac
tivity as more and more burdens are loaded upon those
who do produce.”
With cynical good humor, Davidson, who is the
founder and chairman of the National Taxpayers
Union, chronicles conditions of which we are already
somewhat aware, but details them in such stark terms
as to dramatize their reality. For instance, he compares
the social security system to a giant pyramid scheme,
supported by the power of the tax collector to maintain
the flow of revenues. In 1978, the system had only a
few billion dollars on hand against more than 10 trillion
dollars in liabilities. He maintains also that a continua
tion of social security taxes at the rate anticipated for
1981 will cost the typical young person $734,885 (1977
dollars) in lost principal and interest by age 65. In oth
er words, “this program which the Social Security Ad
ministration claims is to ‘insure your financial
independence’ does precisely the opposite. It all but
guarantees that a young person today will face poverty
in retirement,” and legally you are entitled to nothing.
Davidson is “incisive” if nothing else, but at times his
reasoning becomes strained because of his fervor in
making his justifications all inclusive, and in some
cases, his knowledge of economics is suspect. He hits
hard at inflation, but maintains that recession or
depression must follow inflation. He seems not to take
into account the possibility of less than full employment
at the beginning of expansion. He sees something very
sinister in banks, averring that they can control their
profits. I’m not sure that he doesn’t confuse the bank
ing system which “creates” money with the individual
bank, which can’t.
His case against Federal employees seems weak in
that they are salaried workers executing the mandates
of elected officials. Further, he alleges that a Federal an
nuity accumulates tax-free. However, he doesn’t men
tion that 7 percent of the employee’s salary is taxed at
the source, not as capital gain, but as ordinary income;
and with the exception of the amount contributed by
the employee, his annuity is taxed entirely as ordinary
income.
Davidson seems to descend to the ridiculous in his
justification of a proportionate tax— suggesting that by
impacting more heavily on the poor, the tax would
make them less willing to be poor and the “advantages
of escaping poverty would be greater.” Question? There
being considerable numbers of poor folks in colonial
times, one must wonder at the insensibility of the early
American in not appreciating the advantages of escap
ing poverty.
Where Davidson is weakest is in the rather inane
remedies he suggests for coping with conditions which
he has successfully represented as being of the most se
rious, pervasive, and possibly malignant nature.
In a chapter titled, “What You Can Do,” he suggests
a number of steps which obviously You can't do, such
as “balance the budget,” “restore sound money,” “re
duce taxes,” or “put bureaucracy on an incentive plan.”
He also adjures to “take risks” and “become a political
skeptic” — the overall effects of which I must suggest
are highly problematical.
He concludes with “a new vision of justice,” present
ing very broad-brush solutions and calls on people to
coalese to rescue from the transcendental capitalists the
power rightly belonging to society. He leaves us with a
rousing cheer for a “New American Revolution.”
Despite its obvious faults, every citizen concerned
about America’s future will find this provocative book
of interest.
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— T o m m y I shee
H erndon, Va.
Publications received
Economic and social statistics
Green, Jerry, W a g e — E m p lo y m e n t C o n tra cts. Cambridge,
M ass., N ational Bureau of E conom ic Research, Inc.,
1981, 21 pp. ( n b e r W orking Paper Series, 623.) $1.50.
M aCurdy, T hom as E. A n In te r te m p o r a l A n a ly sis o f T a x a tio n
a n d W ork D isin cen tives: A n A n a ly sis o f th e D e n v e r In co m e
M a in te n a n c e E x p e rim e n t. Cam bridge, M ass., N ational
Bureau of E conom ic Research, Inc., 1981. ( n b e r W ork
ing Paper Series, 624.) $1.50.
Pluta, Joseph E., R ita J. W right, M ildred C. A nderson, T ex a s
F a c t B o o k 1981. A u stin, The U niversity of Texas at A u s
tin, Bureau of Business Research, 1981, 180 pp. $6, pa
per.
Industrial relations
A llen , Steven G ., “C om pensation, Safety, and Absenteeism :
Evidence from the Paper Industry,” I n d u s tr ia l a n d L a b o r
R e la tio n s R eview , January 1981, pp. 20 7 -1 8 .
A u ld , D . A . L. and others, “The Effect of Settlem ent Stage on
N egotiated W age Settlem ents in C anada,” I n d u s tr ia l a n d
L a b o r R e la tio n s R eview , January 1981, pp. 234—44.
Bacharach, Samuel B. and Edward J. Lawler, “Pow er and
T actics in Bargaining,” I n d u s tr ia l a n d L a b o r R e la tio n s
R eview , January 1981, pp. 2 1 9 -3 3 .
Bureau of N ational Affairs, L a b o r R e la tio n s in H ig h e r E d u c a
tion, 1980: S p e c ia l R ep o rt. W ashington, Bureau of N a tio n
al Affairs, Inc., 1981, 74 pp. 50 cents.
Curran, James and John Stanworth, “Size of W orkplace and
A ttitud es to Industrial R elations in the Printing and
E lectronics Industries,” B ritish J o u r n a l o f I n d u s tr ia l R e la
tions, M arch 1981, pp. 14—25.
D on ovan, R aym ond J., “T o Protect the Interests of the
A m erican W orker,” L a b o r L a w J o u rn al, April 1981, pp.
195-202.
Firth, M ichael, “ Racial D iscrim ination in the British Labor
M arket,” I n d u s tr ia l a n d L a b o r R e la tio n s R eview , January
1981, pp. 2 6 5 -7 2 .
G oldfarb, Robert S. and John F. M orrall III, “The D avis-Bacon Act: A n Appraisal of R ecent Studies,” I n d u s tr ia l a n d
L a b o r R e la tio n s R eview , January 1981, pp. 191-206.
G regory, M. B. and A . W. J. T hom son, “The C overage M ark
up, Bargaining Structure and Earnings in Britain, 1973
and 1978,” B ritish J o u r n a l o f I n d u s tr ia l R e la tio n s, M arch
1981, pp. 2 6 -37.
H aber, Sheldon E., “The M obility of Professional W orkers
and Fair H ou sin g,” I n d u s tr ia l a n d L a b o r R e la tio n s R e
view, January 1981, pp. 2 5 7-64.
H askell, M ark A ., “C entralization or D ecentralization of
Bargaining A m on g State G overnm ent Em ployees: A n Ex
am ination of the O ptions,” J o u r n a l o f C o llective N e g o tia
tion s in th e P u b lic S ector, Vol. 10, N o. 1, 1981, pp. 19 31.
H enley, John S. and Peter K . N . Chen, “A N o te on the A p
pearance, D isappearance and Reappearance o f D ual
F unctioning Trade U n ion s in the P eop le’s R epublic of
C hina,” B ritish J o u r n a l o f I n d u s tr ia l R e la tio n s, M arch
1981, pp. 87-93.
65
M ONTHLY
LABOR
R E V IE W
A u gu st
1981 •
B o o k R e v ie w s
H ood, Jacqui C., “Bargaining Orders: The Effect of G issel
P a c k in g C o m p a n y , ” L a b o r L a w Jou rn a l, April 1981, pp.
2 0 3-11.
K istler, Linda H. and R ichard C. H ealy, “Sex D iscrim ination
in Pension Plans Since M a n h a rt, " L a b o r L a w Jou rn al,
April 1981, pp. 2 2 9 -3 7 .
K lingner, D on ald E. and D aniel B. Smith, “W hat H appens
W hen a State’s C ollective Bargaining Law Is D eclared
U nconstitutional? The Case of Indiana,” J o u r n a l o f C o l
lective N e g o tia tio n s in th e P u b lic S ector, Vol. 10, N o. 1,
1981, pp. 85-94.
K ujaw a, D uane, “U .S. M anufacturing Investm ent in the D e
veloping Countries: A m erican Labour’s C oncerns and the
Enterprise Environm ent in the D ecad e A h ead ,” B ritish
J o u r n a l o f I n d u s tr ia l R e la tio n s, M arch 1981, pp. 3 8 -48.
K utchins, A lbert, “The M ost E xclusive R em edy Is N o R em e
dy at All: W orkers’ C om pensation C overage for O ccupa
tional D iseases,” L a b o r L a w Jou rn a l, April 1981, pp. 212
-2 8 .
Lewin, D avid and M ary M cCorm ick, “C oalition Bargaining
in M unicipal G overnm ent: The N ew York C ity Experi
en ce,” I n d u s tr ia l a n d L a b o r R e la tio n s R eview , January
1981, pp. 175-90.
Lieberman,
M yron, P u b lic -S e c to r B a rg a in in g : A
P o licy
R e a p p ra isa l. Lexington, M ass., D .C . H eath and C o., Lex
ington Books, 1980, 180 pp., bibliography.
---------- “The R ole and R esponsibilities of the Parties in
School D istrict Bargaining,” J o u r n a l o f C o llective N e g o ti
a tio n s in th e P u b lic S ector, Vol. 10, N o . 1, 1981, pp. 9 5 103.
R oom kin, M yron, “A Q uantitative Study of Unfair Labor
Practice C ases,” I n d u s tr ia l a n d L a b o r R e la tio n s R eview ,
January 1981, pp. 2 4 5-56.
Schupp, Robert W ., Joyce W indham , Scott D raughn, “Sexual
H arrassm ent U nder T itle VII: The Legal Status,” L a b o r
L a w J o u rn a l, A pril 1981, pp. 2 3 8-52.
Sw anson, Charles R ., Jr., “Participation in U nions: A n A n aly
sis of the Literature and a Research A gen d a,” J o u r n a l o f
C o llective N e g o tia tio n s in th e P u b lic S ector, Vol. 10, N o.
1, 1981, pp. 1-18.
Industry and government organization
Bradshaw, Thornton and D avid V ogel, eds., C o rp o ra tio n s a n d
T h eir C ritics: Issu es a n d A n sw ers to th e P ro b le m s o f C o r
p o r a te S o c ia l R esp o n sib ility. N ew York, M cG raw -H ill
Book C o., 1981, 285 pp. $14.95.
D ivelb iss, R. I. and M aurice R. Cullen, Jr., “Business, the
M edia, and the A m erican P ublic,” M SU B u sin ess Topics,
Spring 1981, pp. 2 1 -28.
Levy, R obert, “Inside Industry’s A rch ives,” D u n 's R eview ,
M ay 1981, beginning on p. 72.
M urray, T hom as J„ “Industry’s N ew C ollege C on nection,”
D u n 's R eview , M ay 1981, beginning on p. 52.
T hom pson, Fred and L. R. Jones, “ Reform ing R egulatory
D ecision M ak in g— The R egulatory B udget,” S lo a n M a n
a g e m e n t R eview , W inter 1981, pp. 5 3 -61.
International economics
Blum, A lbert A ., ed., In te r n a tio n a l H a n d b o o k o f I n d u s tr ia l
R e la tio n s:
C o n te m p o r a ry
66
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D e v e lo p m e n ts
and
R esearch .
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B oddew yn, J. J., “The G lobal Spread of A dvertising R egula
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Brander, James A ., “Intra-Industry Trade in Identical C om
m odities,” J o u r n a l o f In te rn a tio n a l E con om ics, February
1981, pp. 1-14.
Cline, W illiam R. and Sidney W eintraub, eds., E c o n o m ic S ta
b iliza tio n in D evelo p in g C ou n tries. W ashington, The
B rookings Institution, 1981, 517 pp. $26.95, cloth;
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D esai, A shok V., “Effects of the R ise in Oil Prices on South
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Flexitim e on Em ployee A ttitu d es,” A c a d e m y o f M a n a g e
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tier,” S lo a n M a n a g e m e n t R eview , W inter 1981, pp. 3-1 6 .
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“Career Success and Personal Failure: A lienation in Pro
fessionals and M anagers,” A c a d e m y o f M a n a g e m e n t J o u r
n al, June 1981, pp. 342-60.
K rackhardt, D avid and others, “Supervisory Behavior and
E m ployee Turnover: A Field Experim ent,” A c a d e m y o f
M a n a g e m e n t J o u rn a l, June 1981, pp. 2 4 9 -5 9 .
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ism C on trol,” P erso n n el J o u rn a l, M ay 1981, pp. 387-90.
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a C h a n g in g S o ciety. N ew York, AMACOM, A division of
A m erican M anagem ent A ssociations, 1981, 72 pp. $5,
AM A members; $7.50, nonm em bers.
Parke, E. Lauck, John R. Schermerhorn, Jr., Larry Shirland,
“A n Empirical Evaluation of R epeatable Testing as a
Technique for Im proving M anagem ent E ducation,” A c a d
e m y o f M a n a g e m e n t J o u rn a l, June 1981, pp. 43 2 -3 8 .
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$24.95.
Sargent, A lice G ., T h e A n d ro g yn o u s M a n a g er. N ew York,
a m a c o m , A division of Am erican M anagem ent A ssocia
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Schein, Edgar H ., “Im proving F ace-to-F ace R elation ship s,”
S lo a n M a n a g e m e n t R eview , W inter 1981, pp. 4 3 -5 2 .
Sewell, Carole, “Pre-Em ploym ent Investigations: The K ey to
Security in H iring,” P erso n n el Jou rn a l, M ay 1981, pp.
376-79.
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F e a sib ility S tu d y . N ew York, a m a c o m , A division o f
Am erican M anagem ent A ssociations, 1981, 59 pp. $5,
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W elsh,
A.
N ., T he S k ills o f M a n a g e m e n t. N ew York,
, A division of Am erican M anagem ent A ssocia
tions, 1981, 196 pp. $14.95.
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Prices and living conditions
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U n ited States: 1971 -1 9 7 5 ,” T h e A m e r ic a n J o u r n a l o f E c o
n o m ics a n d S ociology, April 1981, pp. 9 7 -106.
A m it, Eilon, “On Q uality and Price R egulation under C om pe
tition and under M on op oly,” S o u th e rn E c o n o m ic Jo u rn a l,
A pril 1981, pp. 1056-62.
G uthrie, Robert S., “The R elationship between W holesale and
Consum er Prices,” S o u th ern E c o n o m ic J o u rn a l, April
1981, pp. 1046-55.
Wages and compensation
Boulet, Jac-Andre, L a n g u a g e a n d E a rn in g s in M o n trea l. H ull,
Q uebec, Canada, E conom ic C ouncil of Canada, 1980, 131
pp., bibliography. $9.95, Canada; $11.95, other countries.
A vailable from Canadian G overnm ent P ublishing Center,
Supply and Services Canada, H ull, Quebec.
D ror, D avid M ., “Flexible Indexation: A Proposal to Im prove
W age Indexation M ade in the Light of Israeli Experi
ence,” In te r n a tio n a l L a b o u r R eview , M arch-April 1981,
pp. 183-200.
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S y m p o siu m on th e Issu es a n d A lte rn a tiv es. W ashington,
Equal Em ploym ent A d visory C ouncil, 1981, 98 pp.
G ronau, Reuben, W ives' L a b o r F orce P articip a tio n , W age D if
fe r e n tia ls a n d F a m ily In c o m e I n e q u a lity — T he I s ra e li E x
p erien ce.
Cambridge,
M ass.,
N ational
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of
E conom ic Research, Inc., 1981, 34 pp. ( n b e r W orking
Paper Series, 668.) $1.50.
M eadow s, Edward, “N ew Targeting for E xecutive P ay,” F or
tu n e , M ay 4, 1981, beginning on p. 176.
Silverman, B uddy Robert Stephen, “D evelopm ental Pay:
Forerunner to M erit Pay in the Federal G overnm ent,”
C o m p en sa tio n R eview , Vol. 13, N o. 2, 1981, pp. 2 5 -3 6 .
“Som e Perspectives on Public Em ployee Benefits,” T h e M e rc e r
P u b lic S e c to r R e p o rt, Vol. 1, N o . 1, W inter 1981, 2 pp.
U .S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, A re a W age S u rveys: S o u th
B en d, In d ia n a , M e tro p o lita n A rea, A u g u st 1 9 8 0 (Bulletin
30 0 0 -3 6 , 26 pp., $1.75); N o r th e a s t P en n sylva n ia , M e tr o
p o lita n A rea, A u g u st 1 9 8 0 (Bulletin 30 0 0 -3 7 , 27 pp.,
$1.75); K a n s a s C ity, M isso u ri-K a n sa s, M e tro p o lita n A rea,
S e p te m b e r 1 9 8 0 (Bulletin 3 0 0 0 -4 2 , 40 pp., $2.25); T ren
ton, N e w Jersey, M e tro p o lita n A rea, S e p te m b e r 1 9 8 0 (Bul67
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW August 1981 • Book Reviews
letin 30 0 0 -4 3 , 26 pp., $1.75); P h ila d e lp h ia P en n sylva n ia N e w Jersey, M e tro p o lita n A rea, N o v e m b e r 1 9 8 0 (Bulletin
3 0 0 0 -5 3 , 41 pp., $2.25); S ag in a w , M ich igan , M e tro p o lita n
A rea , N o v e m b e r 1 9 8 0 (Bulletin 300 0 -5 4 , 22 pp., $1.75);
G a in esville, F lo rid a , M e tro p o lita n A rea, S e p te m b e r 1 9 8 0
(B ulletin 3 0 0 0 -5 5 , 32 pp., $2). A vailable from the Super
intendent o f D ocum ents, W ashington, 20402, g p o B ook
stores, or b l s regional offices.
Welfare programs and social insurance
M ichaels, Joseph, w ith the assistance of Bill Logan and
W endy Ruoff, P rim e o f Y o u r L ife : A P ra c tic a l G u id e to
Y o u r M a tu r e Years. N ew York, F acts on File, Inc., 1981,
358 pp. $14.95.
M orse, D ean W. and Susan H. Gray, E a r ly R e tire m e n t: B oon
o r B a n e ? A S tu d y o f T h ree L a rg e C orporation s. N ew
York, C olum bia U niversity, C onservation of H um an R e
sources, 1980, 139 pp. (C onservation of H um an R e
sources Series, 14.) $23, A llanheld O sm un & C o.,
Publishers, M ontclair, N.J.
“Social Security D isability A m endm ents o f 1980: Legislative
H istory and Sum m ary of P rovisions,” S o c ia l S e c u rity B u l
letin , April 1981, pp. 14—31.
“Social Security N ew s: U n ited S tates— 1979 A d visory C ou n
cil P roposes Program C hanges,” In te r n a tio n a l S o c ia l
S e c u rity R eview , N o. 1, 1980, pp. 9 0 -92.
“The President’s C om m ission on Pension Policy: The Final
R eport,” T he M e rc e r B u lletin , A pril 1981, 4 pp.
Tissue, T hom as and John L. M cC oy, “Incom e and Living A r
rangem ents A m on g P oor A ged Singles,” S o c ia l S e c u rity
B u lletin , A pril 1981, pp. 3-1 3 .
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dent Branch in the Light of the E xtension of C om pensa
tion by Social Security for Personal Injury?” I n te rn a tio n a l
S o c ia l S e c u rity R eview , N o. 1, 1980, pp. 3-4 0 .
W eil, G ordon L. and A llan T. Ostergren, “Energy A ssistance:
A N ew W elfare C ategory,” T he J o u r n a l /T h e Institute for
Socioeconom ic Studies, W inter 1980, pp. 7 7 -8 6 .
Worker training and development
Briggs, Vernon M ., Jr., and Felician F. F oltm an, eds., A p p re n
ticesh ip R esea rch : E m e r g in g F in d in g s a n d F u tu re T rends.
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Ithaca, N .Y ., Cornell U niversity, N ew Y ork State School
of Industrial and Labor R elations, 1981, 227 pp. $7.50,
paper.
Bum stead, R ichard, “O pening U p H igh T ech nology Careers
to W om en,” O c c u p a tio n a l O u tlo o k Q u a rterly, Summer
1981, pp. 2 6 -3 1 .
D od d , John, “The Y ou th U nem ploym ent D ilem m a,” P erso n
n e l J o u rn a l, M ay 1981, pp. 362-66.
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Q u a rterly , Spring 1981, pp. 2 -4 .
H ow ard, H. Philip and Debra E. R othstein, “Input for C om
puter Workers: Education and Training for C om puter
O ccup ation s,” O c cu p a tio n a l O u tlo o k Q u a rterly , Summer
1981, pp. 2 3 -2 5 .
---------- “U p , U p, U p , and A w ay: Trends in C om puter O ccu
pations,” O c c u p a tio n a l O u tlo o k Q u a rterly , Summer 1981,
pp. 3-1 1 .
M artin, G ail M ., “H elp Y ourself to a M idlife Career
C hange,” O c cu p a tio n a l O u tlo o k Q u a rterly , Spring 1981,
pp. 5-1 3 .
---------- “Y o u ’re a W hat? P hilatelist,” O c cu p a tio n a l O u tlo o k
Q u a rterly, Summer 1981, pp. 3 2 -33.
Rinella, Richard J. and Claire C. R obbins, C a re e r P o w er! A
M a n u a l f o r P erso n a l C a re e r A d v a n c e m e n t. N ew York,
a m a c o m , A division of Am erican M anagem ent A ssocia
tions, 1980, 167 pp. $14.95.
“The A ssorted Soldiers in the Com puter A rm y,” O c c u p a tio n a l
O u tlo o k Q u a rterly , Summer 1981, pp. 13-22.
U .S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, O c cu p a tio n a l P ro jectio n s a n d
T ra in in g D a ta , 1 9 8 0 E d itio n . W ashington, 1980, 124 pp.
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W ashington 20402.
U .S. E m ploym ent and Training A dm inistration, A p p re n tic e
sh ip in F oreign C ou n tries. W ashington, U .S. D epartm ent
of Labor, E m ploym ent and Training A dm inistration,
1980, 93 pp. (R & D M onograph, 77.) Stock N o . 029 -0 1 4 —
00204—6. $4.25, Superintendent of D ocum ents, W ashing
ton 20402.
W ilson, K athy, “Financing M idlife Career C hange,” O c cu p a
tio n a l O u tlo o k Q u a rterly , Spring 1981, pp. 14—18.
Q
Current
Labor Statistics
Notes on Current Labor Statistics
.....................................................................................................................................
Schedule of release dates for major BLS statistical series
70
...........................................................................
70
Employment data from household survey. Definitions and notes ............................................
71
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Employment status of noninstitutional population, selected years, 1950-80 ................................................................
Employment status by sex, age, and race, seasonally adjusted ........................................................................................
Selected employment indicators, seasonally adjusted ........................................................................................................
Selected unemployment indicators, seasonally adjusted .....................................................................................................
Unemployment rates, by sex and age, seasonally adjusted ................................................................................................
Unemployed persons, by reason for unemployment, seasonally adjusted .....................................................................
Duration of unemployment, seasonally adjusted ................................................................................................................
Employment, hours, and earnings data from establishment surveys. Definitions and notes
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
Employment by industry, 1951-80
Employment by State ................................................................................................................................................................
Employment by industry division and major manufacturing g r o u p ................................................................................
Employment by industry division and major manufacturing group, seasonally adjusted ........................................
Labor turnover rates in manufacturing, 1978 to date ........................................................................................................
Labor turnover rates in manufacturing, by major industry group ...................................................................................
Hours and earnings, by industry division, 1950-80
Weekly hours, by industry division and major manufacturing g r o u p .............................................................................
Weekly hours, by industry division and major manufacturing group, seasonally adjusted .....................................
Hourly earnings, by industry division and major manufacturing group ........................................................................
Hourly Earnings Index, by industry division, seasonally adjusted ...............................................................................
Weekly earnings, by industry division and major manufacturing group ........................................................................
Gross and spendable weekly earnings, in current and 1967 dollars, 1961 to date .....................................................
Unemployment insurance data. Definitions and notes
87
87
...........................................................................................................................................
Consumer Price Index, 1967-80
Consumer Price Index, U.S. city average, general summary and selected items ..................................
Consumer Price Index, cross classification of region and population size class ...........................................................
Consumer Price Index, selected areas .....................................................................................
Producer Price Indexes, by stage of processing ...................................................................................................................
Producer Price Indexes, by commodity groupings .............................................................................................................
Producer Price Indexes, for special commodity groupings ................................................................................................
Producer Price Indexes, by durability of product ................................................................................................................
Producer Price Indexes for the output of selected SIC industries
................................................................................
88
89
89
95
96
97
98
100
100
100
Price data. Definitions and notes
Productivity data. Definitions and notes
31.
32.
33.
34.
76
77
77
78
79
80
80
81
82
83
84
84
85
86
........................................................................................
............. '........................................................................
21. Unemployment insurance and employment service operations
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
71
72
73
74
75
75
75
........................................................................................................................
Annual indexes of productivity, hourly compensation, unit costs, andprices, selectedyears, 1950-80
Annual changes in productivity, hourly compensation, unit costs, and prices, 1970-80
Quarterly indexes of productivity, hourly compensation, unit costs, and prices,seasonally adjusted .....................
Percent change from preceding quarter and year in productivity, hourly compensation, unit costs, and prices . .
Labor-management data. Definitions and notes
........................................................................................................
35. Wage and benefit settlements in major collective bargaining units, 1976 to date ........................................................
36. Effective wage rate adjustments going into effect in major collective bargainingunits, 1976 to d a t e .......................
37. Work stoppages, 1947 to date ................................................................................................................................................
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103
103
104
104
105
106
106
107
107
69
NOTES ON CURRENT LABOR STATISTICS
This section of the Review presents the principal statistical se
ries collected and calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
A brief introduction to each group of tables provides defi
nitions, notes on the data, sources, and other material usually
found in footnotes.
Readers who need additional information are invited to
consult the BLS regional offices listed on the inside front cov
er of this issue of the Review. Some general notes applicable to
several series are given below.
Seasonal adjustment. Certain monthly and quarterly data are adjusted
to eliminate the effect of such factors as climatic conditions, industry
production schedules, opening and closing of schools, holiday buying
periods, and vacation practices, which might otherwise mask short
term movements of the statistical series. Tables containing these data
are identified as “seasonally adjusted.” Seasonal effects are estimated
on the basis of past experience. When new seasonal factors are com
puted each year, revisions may affect seasonally adjusted data for sev
eral preceding years.
Seasonally adjusted labor force data in tables 2-7 were revised in
the February 1981 issue of the Review to reflect the preceding year’s
experience. Beginning in January 1980, the BLS introduced two major
modifications in the seasonal adjustment methodology for labor force
data. First, the data are being seasonally adjusted with a new proce
dure called X -ll/A R IM A , which was developed at Statistics Canada
as an extension of the standard X -ll method. A detailed description
of the procedure appears in The X -ll ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment
Method by Estela Bee Dagum (Statistics Canada Catalogue No.
12-564E, February 1980). The second change is that seasonal factors
are now being calculated for use during the first 6 months of the year,
rather than for the entire year, and then are calculated at mid-year for
the July-December period. Revisions of historical data continue to be
made only at the end of each calendar year.
Annual revision of the seasonally adjusted payroll data in tables
11, 13, 16, and 18 begins with the August 1980 issue using the
X -ll ARIM A seasonal adjustment methodology. New seasonal fac
tors for productivity data in tables 33 and 34 are usually intro
duced in the September issue. Seasonally adjusted indexes and percent
changes from month to month and from quarter to quarter are
published for numerous Consumer and Producer Price Index series.
However, seasonally adjusted indexes are not published for the U.S.
average All Items CPI. Only seasonally adjusted percent changes are
available for this series.
Adjustments for price changes. Some data are adjusted to eliminate
the effect of changes in price. These adjustments are made by dividing
current dollar values by the Consumer Price Index or the appropriate
component of the index, then multiplying by 100. For example, given
a current hourly wage rate of $3 and a current price index number of
150, where 1967 = 100, the hourly rate expressed in 1967 dollars is
$2 ($3/150 X 100 = $2). The resulting values are described as
“real,” “constant,” or “ 1967” dollars.
Availability of information. Data that supplement the tables in this
section are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in a variety of
sources. Press releases provide the latest statistical information
published by the Bureau; the major recurring releases are published
according to the schedule given below. The BLS Handbook o f Labor
Statistics, Bulletin 2070, provides more detailed data and greater his
torical coverage for most of the statistical series presented in the
Monthly Labor Review. More information from the household and es
tablishment surveys is provided in Employment and Earnings, a
monthly publication of the Bureau, and in two comprehensive data
books issued annually— Employment and Earnings, United States and
Employment and Earnings, States and Areas. More detailed informa
tion on wages and other aspects of collective bargaining appears in
the monthly periodical, Current Wage Developments. More detailed
price information is published each month in the periodicals, the CPI
Detailed Report and Producer Prices and Price Indexes.
Symbols
p = preliminary. To improve the timeliness of some series,
preliminary figures are issued based on representative
but incomplete returns.
r = revised. Generally this revision reflects the availability
of later data but may also reflect other adjustments,
n.e.c. = not elsewhere classified.
Schedule of release dates for major BLS statistical series
Title and frequency
(monthly except where indicated)
Employment situation..................................................................
Producer Price Index ..................................................................
Consumer Price Index ................................................................
Real earnings ............................................................................
Productivity and costs:
Nonfinancial corporations ........................................................
Labor turnover in manufacturing ..................................................
Work stoppages..........................................................................
Digitized 70
for FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Release
date
Period
covered
August 7
August 14
August 25
August 25
July
July
July
July
August 26
August 28
August 28
2d quarter
July
July
Release
date
Period
covered
MLR table
number
1-11
September 4
September 4
September 24
September 24
August
August
August
August
26-30
22-25
14-20
September 30
September 30
August
August
31-34
12-13
37
EMPLOYMENT DATA FROM THE HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
E m p l o y m e n t d a t a in this section are obtained from the
Current Population Survey, a program of personal interviews
conducted monthly by the Bureau of the Census for the Bureau
of Labor Statistics. The sample consists of about 60,000
households beginning in May 1981, selected to represent the
U.S. population 16 years of age and older. Households are
interviewed on a rotating basis, so that three-fourths of the
sample is the same for any 2 consecutive months.
Definitions
Employed persons are (1) those who worked for pay any time
during the week which includes the 12th day of the month or who
worked unpaid for 15 hours or more in a family-operated enterprise
and (2) those who were temporarily absent from their regular jobs
because of illness, vacation, industrial dispute, or similar reasons. A
person working at more than one job is counted only in the job at
which he or she worked the greatest number of hours.
Unemployed persons are those who did not work during the survey
week, but were available for work except for temporary illness and
had looked for jobs within the preceding 4 weeks. Persons who did
not look for work because they were on layoff or waiting to start new
jobs within the next 30 days are also counted among the unemployed.
The unemployment rate represents the number unemployed as a
percent of the civilian labor force.
The civilian labor force consists of all employed or unemployed
persons in the civilian noninstitutional population; the total labor
force includes military personnel. Persons not in the labor force are
1.
those not classified as employed or unemployed; this group includes
persons retired, those engaged in their own housework, those not
working while attending school, those unable to work because of
long-term illness, those discouraged from seeking work because of
personal or job market factors, and those who are voluntarily idle.
The noninstitutional population comprises all persons 16 years of age
and older who are not inmates of penal or mental institutions,
sanitariums, or homes for the aged, infirm, or needy.
Full-time workers are those employed at least 35 hours a week;
part-time workers are those who work fewer hours. Workers on parttime schedules for economic reasons (such as slack work, terminating
or starting a job during the week, material shortages, or inability to
find full-time work) are among those counted as being on full-time
status, under the assumption that they would be working full time if
conditions permitted. The survey classifies unemployed persons in
full-time or part-time status by their reported preferences for full-time
or part-time work.
Notes on the data
From time to time, and especially after a decennial census,
adjustments are made in the Current Population Survey figures to
correct for estimating errors during the preceding years. These
adjustments affect the comparability of historical data presented in
table 1. A description of these adjustments and their effect on the
various data series appear in the Explanatory Notes of E m p lo ym en t
a n d Earnings.
Data in tables 2-7 are seasonally adjusted, based on the seasonal
experience through December 1980.
Employment status of the noninstitutional population, 16 years and over, selected years, 1950-80
[Numbers in thousands]
Civilian labor force
Total labor force
Year
Total non
institutional
population
Unemployed
Employed
Number
Percent of
population
Total
Total
Agriculture
Nonagricultural
industries
Number
Percent of
labor
force
Not in
labor force
1950
1955
1960
1964
1965
............................................................
............................................................
............................................................
............................................................
............................................................
106,645
112,732
119,759
127,224
129,236
63,858
68,072
72,142
75,830
77,178
59.9
60.4
60.2
59.6
59.7
62,208
65,023
69,628
73,091
74,455
58,918
62,170
65,778
69,305
71,088
7,160
6,450
5,458
4,523
4,361
51,758
55,722
60,318
64,782
66,726
3,288
2,852
3,852
3,786
3,366
5.3
4.4
5.5
5.2
4.5
42,787
44,660
47,617
51,394
52,058
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
............................................................
............................................................
............................................................
............................................................
............................................................
131,180
133,319
135,562
137,841
140,182
78,893
80,793
82,272
84,240
85,903
60.1
60.6
60.7
61.1
61.3
75,770
77,347
78,737
80,734
82,715
72,895
74,372
75,920
77,902
78,627
3,979
3,844
3,817
3,606
3,462
68,915
70,527
72,103
74,296
75,165
2,875
2,975
2,817
2,832
4,088
3.8
3.8
3.6
3.5
4.9
52,288
52,527
53,291
53,602
54,280
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
............................................................
............................................................
....................................................... . . .
............................................................
............................................................
142,596
145,775
148,263
150,827
153,449
86,929
88,991
91,040
93,240
94,793
61.0
61.0
61.4
61.8
61.8
84,113
86,542
88,714
91,011
92,613
79,120
81,702
84,409
83,935
84,783
3,387
3,472
3,452
3,492
3,380
75,732
78,230
80,957
82,443
81,403
4,993
4,840
4,304
5,076
7,830
5.9
5.6
4.9
5.6
8.5
55,666
56,785
57,222
57,587
58,655
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
............................................................
............................................................
............................................................
............................................................
............................................................
156,048
158,559
161,058
163,620
166,246
96,917
99,534
102,537
104,996
106,821
62.1
62.8
63.7
64.2
64.3
94,773
97,401
100,420
102,908
104,719
87,485
90,546
94,373
96,945
97,270
3,297
3,244
3,342
3,297
3,310
84,188
87,302
91,031
93,648
93,960
7,288
6,855
6,047
5,963
7,448
7.7
7.0
59,130
59,025
58,521
58,623
59,425
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
6.0
5.8
7.1
71
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW August 1981 • Current Labor Statistics: Household Data
2.
Employment status by sex, age, and race, seasonally adjusted
[Numbers in thousands]
1981
1980
Annual average
Employment status
1979
1980
June
July
163,620
104,996
161,532
102,908
96,945
3,297
93,648
5,963
5.8
58,623
166,246
106,821
164,143
104,719
97,270
3,310
93,960
7,448
7.1
59,425
166,105
106,683
164,013
104,591
96,780
3,232
93,548
7,811
7.5
59,422
166,391
107,119
164,293
105,020
96,999
3,267
93,732
68,293
54,486
52,264
2,350
49,913
2,223
4.1
13,807
69,607
55,234
51,972
2,355
49,617
3,261
5.9
14,373
69,532
55,182
51,624
2,301
49,323
3,558
6.4
14,350
69,664
55,344
51,714
2,306
49,408
3,630
76,860
38,910
36,698
591
36,107
2,213
5.7
37,949
78,295
40,243
37,696
575
37,120
2,547
6.3
38,052
78,211
40,182
37,613
550
37,063
2,569
6.4
38,029
78,360
40,383
37,728
564
37,164
2,655
16,379
9,512
7,984
356
7,628
1,528
16.1
6,867
16,242
9,242
7,603
380
7,223
1,640
17.7
7,000
16,271
9,227
7,543
381
7,162
1,684
18.3
7,044
141,614
90,602
86,025
4,577
5.1
51,011
143,657
92,171
86,380
5,790
6.3
51,486
143,565
92,134
86,007
6,127
6.7
51,431
19,918
12,306
10,920
1,386
11.3
7,612
20,486
12,548
10,890
1,658
13.2
7,938
20,448
12,491
10,809
1,682
13.5
7,957
167,585
107,668
165,460
105,543
97,696
3,403
94,294
7,847
7.4
59,917
167,747
107,802
165,627
105,681
97,927
3,281
94,646
7,754
7.3
59,946
167,902
108,305
165,774
106,177
98,412
3,276
95,136
7,764
7.3
59,598
168,071
108,851
165,941
106,722
98,976
3,463
95,513
7,746
7.3
59,219
168,272
109,533
166,145
107,406
99,235
3,353
95,882
8,171
7.6
58,739
168,480
108,307
166,349
106,176
98,392
3,265
95,127
7,784
7.3
60,173
70,198
55,470
52,045
2,331
49,714
3,425
70,320
55,443
52,091
2,378
49,713
3,352
70,413
55,445
52,134
2,289
49,844
3,312
14,877
14,968
70,574
56,013
52,750
2,409
50,342
3,262
5.8
14,561
70,687
56,395
52,849
2,349
50,500
3,546
6.3
14,292
70,788
55,876
52,451
2,320
50,131
3,425
14,728
70,481
55,816
52,511
2,296
50,215
3,305
5.9
14,665
78,959
40,570
37,820
665
37,155
2,750
79,175
41,090
38,410
615
37,794
2,680
6.5
38,085
79,271
41,293
38,567
606
37,961
2,725
79,377
41,481
38,760
603
38,157
2,721
79,498
41,852
39,014
583
38,431
2,838
38,389
79,071
40,942
38,191
621
37,570
2,750
6.7
38,129
37,978
37,896
37,646
79,617
41,743
39,011
562
38,449
2,731
6.5
37,874
16,114
9,027
7,417
398
7,019
1,610
17.8
7,087
16,069
9,158
7,414
404
7,010
1,744
19.0
6,911
16,039
9,146
7,384
376
7,008
1,762
19.3
6,893
16,022
9,068
7,334
374
6,960
1,734
19.1
6,954
15,991
9,228
7,465
451
7,014
1,763
19.1
6,763
15,961
9,159
7,372
421
6,951
1,787
19.5
6,802
15,944
8,558
6,930
383
6,547
1,628
19.0
7,386
144,359 144,500
92,562 92,383
86,409 86,377
6,153
6,006
6.5
51,797 52,117
144,651
92,832
86,620
6,213
6.7
51,819
144,774
93,035
86,940
6,095
144,882
93,313
87,291
145,006
93,860
87,791
6,069
6.5
51,146
145,160
94,506
88,083
6,422
50,654
145,316
93,464
87,500
5,964
6.4
51,852
20,771
20,809
12,684
11,051
1,634
12.9
8,125
20,853
12,598
10,942
1,655
13.1
8,255
20,936
12,899
11,193
1,706
13.2
8,037
20,985
12,895
11,138
1,757
13.6
8,090
21,033
12,741
10,928
1,813
14.2
8,292
Nov.
Dec.
166,789
107,101
164,667
104,980
97,180
3,399
93,781
7,800
7.4
59,687
167,005
107,288
164,884
105,167
97,206
3,319
93,887
7,961
7.6
59,717
167,201
107,404
165,082
105,285
97,339
3,340
93,999
7,946
7.5
59,797
167,396
107,191
165,272
105,067
97,282
3,394
93,888
7,785
7.4
60,205
69,756
55,403
51,791
2,301
49,490
3,612
6.5
14,353
69,864
55,475
51,823
2,389
49,434
3,652
69,987
55,495
51,963
2,351
49,612
3,532
6.4
14,492
70,095
55,539
52,007
2,372
49,635
3,532
6.4
14,556
78,598
40,317
37,804
592
37,212
2,513
37,977
78,473
40,523
37,890
555
37,335
2,633
6.5
37,950
38,281
78,723
40,486
37,754
576
37,178
2,732
6.7
38,237
78,842
40,629
37,909
574
37,335
2,720
6.7
38,213
16,268
9,293
7,557
397
7,160
1,736
18.7
6,975
16,235
9,019
7,322
354
6,968
1,697
18.8
7,216
16,205
9,188
7,553
418
7,135
1,635
17.8
7,017
16,174
9,186
7,489
392
7,097
1,697
18.5
6,988
16,145
9,117
7,423
394
7,029
1,694
18.6
7,028
143,770 143,900
92,335 92,288
86,075 86,067
6,260
6.7'
51,435 51,612
144,051
92,317
86,307
6,010
144,211
92,516
86,371
6,145
6.5
51,734
51,695
20,564
12,630
10,902
1,728
13.7
7,934
20,617
12,677
10,894
1,783
14.1
7,940
Apr.
June
Mar.
Oct
Jan.
May
Feb.
Sept
Aug.
TOTAL
Total noninstitutional population’ ..........................
Total labor force ......................................
Civilian noninstitutional population' ......................
Civilian labor force ................................
Employed ......................................
Agriculture ..............................
Nonagricultural industries ........
Unemployed ..................................
Unemployment rate ........................
Not in labor force ..................................
166,578
107,059
164,464
104,945
97,003
3,210
93,793
7,942
7.6
7.6
59,273 59,519
8,021
Men, 20 years and over
Civilian noninstitutional population' ......................
Civilian labor force ......................................
Employed ............................................
Agriculture ....................................
Nonagricultural industries ................
Unemployed ........................................
Unemployment rate ..............................
Not in labor force ........................................
6.6
14,320
6.6
14,389
6.2
6.0
6.0
6.1
14,912
Women, 20 years and over
Civilian noninstitutional population' ......................
Civilian labor force ......................................
Employed ............................................
Agriculture ....................................
Nonagricultural industries ................
Unemployed ........................................
Unemployment rate ..............................
Not in labor force ........................................
6.6
6.2
6.8
6.6
6.6
6.8
Both sexes, 16-19 years
Civilian noninstitutional population' ......................
Civilian labor force ......................................
Employed ............................................
Agriculture ....................................
Nonagricultural Industries ................
Unemployed ........................................
Unemployment rate ..............................
Not in labor force ........................................
White
Civilian noninstitutional population' ......................
Civilian labor force ......................................
Employed ............................................
Unemployed ........................................
Unemployment rate ..............................
Not in labor force ........................................
6.8
6,221
6.6
6.6
6.6
51,739
6,022
6.5
51,569
6.8
Black and other
Civilian noninstitutional population' ......................
Civilian labor force ......................................
Employed ............................................
Unemployed ........................................
Unemployment rate ..............................
Not in labor force ........................................
’ As in table 1, population figures are not seasonally adjusted.
72
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20,523
12,661
10,902
1,759
13.9
7,862
20,673
12,686
10,884
1,802
14.2
7,987
20,723
12,706
10,922
1,784
14.0
8,017
12,668
10,895
1,773
14.0
8,103
20,892
12,765
11,020
1,745
13.7
8,127
3.
Selected employment indicators, seasonally adjusted
[ Number in thousands]
Annual average
1981
1980
Selected categories
1979
1980
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
96,945
56,499
40,446
39,090
22,724
97,270
55,988
41,283
38,302
23,097
96,780
55,597
41,183
38,220
23,131
96,999
55,678
41,321
38,049
23,118
97,003
55,589
41,414
37,987
23,126
97,180
55,754
41,426
38,027
23,027
97,206
55,881
41,325
38,142
22,993
97,339
55,897
41,442
38,167
23,065
97,282
55,920
41,362
38,231
23,063
97,696
56,012
41,684
38,182
23,352
97,927
56,045
41,882
38,113
23,356
98,412
56,383
42,029
38,365
23,513
98,976
56,688
42,288
38,510
23,529
99,235
56,718
42,517
38,498
23,831
98,392
56,026
42,366
38,216
23,763
49,342
15,050
50,809
15,613
50,836
15,682
51,023
15,717
51,307
15,751
51,074
15,540
51,101
15,780
51,148
15,863
51,065
15,810
51,594
15,965
51,698
15,813
51,746
15,827
51,801
15,754
51,967
15,688
51,959
16,057
10,516
6,163
17,613
32,066
12,880
10,909
3,612
4,665
12,834
2,703
10,919
6,172
18,105
30,800
12,529
10,346
3,468
4,456
12,958
2,704
10,901
6,046
18,207
30,443
12,357
10,233
3,429
4,424
12,941
2,625
10,999
6,130
18,177
30,276
12,403
10,189
3,354
4,330
13,017
2,694
11,109
6,140
18,307
30,232
12,346
10,147
3,478
4,261
12,928
2,620
11,007
6,316
18,211
30,436
12,490
10,979
6,277
18,065
30,521
12,485
3,443
4,383
12,891
2,735
2,729
11,009
6,175
18,071
30,373
12,337
10,194
3,402
4,440
12,982
2,804
11,363
6,265
18,001
30,338
12,306
10,331
3,322
4,380
12,946
2,737
11,488
6,271
18,125
30,446
12,386
10,390
3,361
4,309
13,070
2,662
11,565
3,434
4,310
12,943
2,757
11,016
6,155
18,114
30,550
12,424
10,247
3,429
4,450
18,135
30,594
12,605
10,189
3,363
4,437
13,279
2,679
11,444
6,145
18,457
31,156
12,624
10,524
3,411
4,596
13,255
2,834
11,260
6,461
18,557
31,373
12,743
10,609
3,390
4,632
13,213
2,707
11,174
6,440
18,288
30,922
12,482
10,550
3,425
4,466
12,930
2,648
1,413
1,580
304
1,384
1,628
297
1,369
1,606
278
1,360
1,631
295
1,282
1,640
280
1,417
309
1,363
1,640
325
1,417
1,612
324
1,411
1,655
305
1,465
1,615
284
1,336
1,610
325
1,338
1,615
312
1,524
1,648
290
1,464
1,644
231
1,377
1,657
258
86,540
15,369
71,171
1,240
69,931
6,652
455
86,706
15,624
71,081
1,166
69,915
6,850
404
86,370
15,817
70,553
1,204
69,349
6,728
445
86,432
15,718
70,714
1,230
69,484
6,801
426
86,490
15,531
70,959
1,196
69,763
6,881
403
86,395
15,575
70,820
1,125
69,695
6,977
416
86,587
15,597
70,990
1,144
69,846
7,005
417
86,643
15,651
70,992
1,148
69,844
6,943
405
86,513
15,653
70,860
69,750
6,973
396
87,125
15,738
71,387
1,197
70,190
6,839
422
87,236
15,589
71,647
1,176
70,471
6,923
371
87,870
15,685
72,185
1,235
70,949
6,896
354
88,195
15,628
72,567
1,241
71,327
7,021
306
88,877
15,512
73,365
1,164
72,201
6,761
338
87,734
15,460
72,274
1,146
71,128
7,005
369
88,133
72,647
3,281
1,325
1,956
12,205
88,325
72,022
3,965
1,669
2,296
12,338
87,994
71,454
3,969
1,734
2,235
12,571
87,431
70,825
4,086
1,794
2,292
12,520
88,195
71,526
4,143
1,709
2,434
12,526
88,246
71,929
4,183
1,701
2,482
12,134
88,488
72,071
4,220
1,685
2,535
12,197
88,694
72,265
4,176
1,620
2,556
12,253
88,468
72,131
4,218
1,647
2,571
12,119
89,499
72,807
4,474
1,698
2,776
12,218
89,441
72,945
4,145
1,622
2,523
12,351
89,583
72,875
4,227
1,638
2,589
12,481
89,202
72,761
4,044
1,517
2,527
12,397
89,870
73,375
4,143
1,630
2,513
12,352
89,625
73,115
3,798
1,367
2,431
12,713
CHARACTERISTIC
Total employed, 16 years and over ......................
Men ............................................................
Women........................................................
Married men, spouse present ........................
Married women, spouse present ....................
OCCUPATION
White-collar workers............................................
Professional and technical ............................
Managers and administrators, except
‘arm ........................................................
Salesworkers................................................
Clerical workers............................................
Blue-collar workers..............................................
Craft and kindred workers ............................
Operatives, except transport..........................
Transport equipment operatives ....................
Nonfarm laborers..........................................
Service workers ..................................................
Farmworkers ......................................................
10,202 10,210
12,888
6,220
MAJOR INDUSTRY AND CLASS
OF WORKER
Agriculture:
Wage-and-salary workers..............................
Self-employed workers..................................
Unpaid family workers ..................................
Nonagricultural industries:
Wage-and-salary workers..............................
Government ..........................................
Private industries....................................
Private households ..........................
Other industries ..............................
Self-employed workers..................................
Unpaid family workers ..................................
1,688
1,110
PERSONS AT WORK1
Nonagricultural industries ....................................
Full-time schedules ......................................
Part time for economic reasons......................
Usually work full time..............................
Usually work part tim e............................
Part time for noneconomic reasons................
'Excludes persons “ with a job but not at work” during the survey period for such reasons as vacation, illness, or industrial disputes.
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73
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW August 1981 • Current Labor Statistics: Household Data
4.
Selected unemployment indicators, seasonally adjusted
[Unemployment rates]
Annual average
Selected categories
1981
1980
1979
1980
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
Total, 16 years and over......................................
Men, 20 years and over................................
Women, 20 years and over ..........................
Both sexes, 16-19 years ..............................
5.8
4.1
5.7
16.1
7.1
5.9
6.3
17.7
7.5
6.4
6.4
18.3
7.6
7.4
7.5
6.4
6.7
18.6
7.4
7.4
7.3
7.3
5.9
7.3
5.8
7.6
6.3
6.1
17.8
7.6
6.4
6.7
18.5
6.2
6.8
18.7
7.6
6.5
6.5
18.8
17.8
6.7
19.0
6.5
19.3
19.1
19.1
19.5
6.5
19.0
White, total ..................................................
Men, 20 years and over ........................
Women, 20 years and o v e r....................
Both sexes, 16-19 years........................
5.1
3.6
5.0
13.9
6.3
5.2
5.6
14.8
6.7
5.7
5.7
16.1
6.7
5.3
5.8
16.6
6.5
5.8
5.5
15.1
5.7
5.8
16.0
6.7
5.5
6.6
5.8
5.8
16.5
5.4
5.7
17.4
6.5
5.4
5.6
16.9
6.5
5.2
5.7
17.2
Black and other, total....................................
Men, 20 years and over ........................
Women, 20 years and o v e r....................
Both sexes, 16-19 years........................
11.3
8.4
13.2
11.4
13.5
13.9
12.5
11.3
35.9
13.7
12.5
10.9
37.6
14.1
13.2
12.1
13.1
13.7
13.2
11.8
12.0
14.2
12.5
37.8
11.9
35.4
10.6
11.8
13.6
12.3
37.4
37.3
36.1
33.6
38.6
4.1
4.1
5.9
10.3
7.3
9.7
4.2
5.6
9.4
7.1
9.0
3.8
5.9
9.8
6.9
9.0
CHARACTERISTIC
Married men, spouse present........................
Married women, spouse present....................
Women who head families............................
Full-time workers..........................................
Part-time workers ........................................
Unemployed 15 weeks and over....................
Labor force time lost1 ..................................
10.1
11.1
33.5
35.8
2.7
5.1
8.3
5.3
8.7
4.2
5.8
9.1
6.8
12.2
10.9
34.8
4.6
6.0
8.5
7.2
6.6
6.6
6.8
4.9
4.8
6.0
10.6
4.7
5.7
9.0
7.3
8.7
6.1
8.8
7.4
8.8
1.8
2.0
8.4
8.3
2.2
8.2
9.0
7.3
8.7
6.3
8.7
1.7
7.9
8.8
1.7
8.1
3.3
2.4
3.7
2.5
3.7
2.5
3.7
2.4
3.7
2.4
1.9
3.9
4.6
6.9
4.5
8.4
5.4
2.4
4.4
5.3
2.6
10.0
6.6
12.2
8.8
2.5
4.4
5.2
2.5
4.2
5.4
7.1
3.8
14.6
7.9
4.4
1.2
6.6
6.2
6.6
14.2
4.6
6.0
10.2
7.3
9.1
6.6
5.7
5.8
16.4
14.0
12.0
12.2
6.5
5.5
5.9
15.4
14.0
11.6
36.6
12.3
37.5
4.4
5.9
9.9
7.4
4.3
5.8
10.4
7.3
8.2
2.3
8.2
6.0
6.0
16.8
12.9
10.5
11.0
36.5
6.0
10.8
10.5
7.1
9.2
4.1
5.8
9.6
7.1
9.1
4.2
6.2
6.6
10.8
12.6
6.0
6.6
6.8
6.8
5.6
6.0
18.0
2.2
8.6
2.2
8.4
8.3
3.8
2.5
3.9
3.9
2.5
4.0
3.9
3.7
3.9
2.7
4.0
3.2
4.1
2.9
2.4
4.3
5.4
2.5
4.6
5.6
2.5
4.7
5.8
10.5
7.1
12.9
2.4
4.4
5.7
2.4
4.0
5.3
2.6
2.4
4.0
5.6
9.6
2.7
4.6
5.6
10.0
11.5
7.7
11.9
13.8
8.5
3.7
13.1
9.4
5.4
7.2
14.4
7.4
7.3
7.6
5.7
7.3
5.9
4.9
9.1
7.8
16.3
7.9
7.3
8.9
5.9
8.4
5.9
4.8
2.2
8.2
2.1
8.1
2.1
8.1
2.0
8.2
2.0
8.6
7.3
6.4
5.3
5.7
16.5
12.0
10.6
7.0
9.2
2.2
8.0
OCCUPATION
White-collar workers ..........................................
Professional and technical ............................
Managers and administrators, except
farm ........................................................
Salesworkers ..............................................
Clerical workers ..........................................
Blue-collar workers ............................................
Craft and kindred workers ............................
Operatives, except transport ........................
Transport equipment operatives ....................
Nonfarm laborers ........................................
Service workers..................................................
Farmworkers......................................................
10.8
7.5
13.4
4.2
5.4
11.3
7.2
14.4
4.5
15.8
8.3
4.6
11.1
10.0
15.7
8.1
10.0
2.6
2.6
11.1
10.8
10.8
7.6
13.3
9.8
16.1
8.5
5.5
7.4
13.0
10.4
15.2
7.1
13.2
2.4
4.8
5.6
10.7
7.1
13.0
15.3
8.3
4.4
15.0
8.3
4.0
14.8
7.8
4.0
7.8
14.6
9.2
9.5
8.9
5.3
7.8
5.6
4.4
7.8
14.8
8.9
9.0
7.7
13.8
8.1
4.3
10.6
10.6
8.8
2.8
10.2
6.8
12.1
9.1
15.0
8.0
5.0
2.6
10.1
7.2
11.9
8.3
14.9
8.7
4.7
3.8
5.9
9.8
7.1
11.3
9.3
14.1
8.1
5.1
6.8
8.1
8.2
3.8
2.8
2.8
4.1
5.3
9.8
7.2
11.0
8.4
14.8
9.0
6.0
INDUSTRY
Nonagricultural private wage-and-salary workers2
Construction ................................................
Manufacturing..............................................
Durable goods ......................................
Nondurable goods..................................
Transportation and public utilities ..................
Wholesale and retail trad e............................
Finance and service industries ......................
Government workers ..........................................
Agricultural wage-and-salary workers ..................
1
5.7
10.2
5.5
5.0
6.4
3.7
6.5
4.9
3.7
9.1
7.4
14.2
8.5
8.9
7.9
4.9
7.4
5.3
4.1
10.8
8.0
8.0
15.6
9.7
10.9
7.9
5.1
7.7
5.6
3.5
10.4
15.8
9.8
10.7
8.5
5.6
7.6
5.6
4,1
10.8
8.0
17.3
9.3
10.1
8.0
5.6
7.7
5.5
4.0
13.2
Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as a
percent of potentially available labor force hours.
Digitized for
74FRASER
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
7.8
15.9
9.2
10.0
7.9
5.3
7.7
5.4
4.1
10.7
11.1
8.6
8.2
4.9
5.5
4.2
10.1
8.8
9.0
8.5
4.9
8.3
5.5
4.1
10.6
7.5
13.3
8.4
8.3
8.5
5.8
7.6
5.8
4.4
11.5
2 Includes mining, not shown separately,
7.5
13.2
8.4
8.5
8.2
5.5
7.6
6.0
4.3
12.1
7.3
14.7
8.0
7.9
8.3
6.4
7.3
5.6
4.6
11.9
11.1
7.4
16.6
7.6
7.4
7.8
4.7
7.5
5.8
4.5
13.1
5.
Unemployment rates, by sex and age, seasonally adjusted
Sex and age
Annual average
1979
Total, 16 years and over......................................
16 to 19 years..............................................
16 to 17 years........................................
18 to 19 years........................................
20 to 24 years..............................................
25 years and over ........................................
25 to 54 years........................................
55 years and o ver..................................
5.8
16.1
18.1
146
9.0
3.9
4.1
3.0
Men, 16 years and o v e r................................
16 to 19 years........................................
16 to 17 years ................................
18 to 19 years ................................
20 to 24 years........................................
25 years and over..................................
25 to 54 years ................................
55 years and over............................
5.1
15.8
17.9
14.2
Women, 16 years and over............................
16 to 19 years........................................
16 to 17 years ................................
18 to 19 years ................................
20 to 24 years........................................
25 years and o ve r..................................
25 to 54 years ................................
55 years and over............................
6.
8.6
3.3
3.4
2.9
6.8
16.4
18.3
15.0
9.6
4.8
5.2
3.2
1980
7.1
17.7
20.0
1980
June
July
7.5
18.3
7.6
187
20.5
17.4
7.6
18.8
Oct.
7.4
17.8
7.6
18.5
20.9
16.7
12.3
5.4
5.9
3.4
7.5
18.6
21.4
16.5
5.4
5.9
3.3
7.4
17.8
19.9
16.4
11.7
5.3
5.8
3.5
7.4
19.8
7.2
19.0
20.5
17.8
12.5
4.9
5.4
3.3
7.2
20.3
23.0
18.5
7.7
16.5
19.3
14.8
12.1
20.1
16.0
12.0
5.4
5.8
3.3
5.5
5.9
3.4
5.4
5.9
3.4
5.4
5.9
3.4
6.9
18.2
20.4
16.7
12.5
4.7
5.1
3.3
7.5
19.1
21.5
18.8
13.4
5.2
5.6
3.6
7.6
19.5
20.9
18.4
13.2
5.4
5.8
3.6
7.6
19.9
23.7
17.1
13.6
5.3
5.7
3.6
7.4
17.2
19.5
15.6
10.3
5.5
5.9
3.2
7.4
17.3
18.3
16.3
7.7
17.7
10.6
5.5
6.0
2.9
20.1
7.6
17.6
16.2
10.9
5.7
6.1
20.2
15.9
10.2
5.7
6.2
3.1
3.1
1981
Sept.
22.1
16.5
12.0
16.1
11.5
5.0
5.4
3.3
20.0
17.6
12.1
Aug.
Nov.
12.1
21.2
21.8
16.9
13.5
5.4
3.5
18.1
13.8
5.1
5.6
3.3
7.4
19.8
22.3
17.8
13.2
5.1
5.6
3.3
7.2
16.6
18.8
15.1
7.7
17.0
19.8
15.1
7.7
17.2
20.3
15.1
7.6
18.9
6.0
10.2
10.6
5.4
5.9
3.3
5.9
6.4
3.4
10.8
5.8
6.2
3.4
Dec.
10.8
5.9
6.3
3.9
Jan.
7.4
19.0
21.0
17.5
11.9
5.3
5.7
3.5
7.3
19.3
21.4
17.9
11.8
5.1
5.5
3.6
7.1
Mar.
Apr.
7.3
19.1
21.3
17.7
11.7
5.2
5.5
3.7
7.3
19.1
22.0
17.2
12.1
5.0
5.4
3.3
7.0
19.5
20.1
22.1
21.1
4.9
5.2
3.4
18.7
12.7
4.8
5.2
3.4
18.6
13.0
4.7
5.1
3.2
7.7
17.5
18.7
16.4
7.6
18.4
20.5
17.0
7.7
18.7
5.8
6.3
3.6
3.9
4.5
12.8
*
Feb.
10.8
6.9
19.3
22.7
17.0
13.2
4.6
4.9
3.1
7.7
18.9
21.6
16.5
10.8 10.1
5.6
5.9
5.9
6.2
21.1
17.4
10.9
5.6
6.0
3.7
May
7.6
19.5
21.6
18.2
12.9
5.3
5.6
3.3
7.4
20.2
22.7
18.3
14.2
4.8
5.1
3.4
7.9
18.7
20.4
18.2
11.4
5.9
6.4
3.3
June
7.3
19.0
22.6
17.3
12.1
5.2
5.6
3.4
7.1
19.8
24.4
18.1
12.8
5.0
5.3
3.5
7.6
18.2
20.6
16.4
11.2
5.6
6.0
3.3
Unemployed persons, by reason for unemployment, seasonally adjusted
[Numbers in thousands]
1980
Reason for unemployment
1981
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
4,468
1,954
2,514
887
1,834
872
4,364
1,832
2,532
4,387
1,744
2,643
855
1,844
862
4,240
1,692
2,548
870
2,013
880
4,229
1,453
2,776
897
1,896
890
4,226
1,470
2,756
813
1,869
3,847
1,258
2,590
907
2,039
893
4,319
1,699
2,620
890
1,883
870
1,000
3,896
1,267
2,629
884
1,970
928
3,846
1,299
2,547
863
2,040
986
3,819
1,280
2,539
854
2,017
987
4,084
1,368
2,715
1,009
2,126
938
4,219
1,367
2,852
863
1,955
956
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0 100.0
11.0
22.8
10.8
54.6
22.9
31.7
10.8
11.2
54.2
21.3
32.9
55.2
21.9
33.3
100.0
53.0
21.1
100.0
55.4
242
31.2
23.6
10.9
23.2
31.8
10.9
25.2
54.3
18.9
35.4
10.5
24.0
49.4
16.1
33.2
23.4
53.5
18.4
35.1
11.3
24.0
4.3
4.2
4.1
4.2
4.0
4.0
.9
4.0
NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED
Lost last jo b ........................................................................................
On layoff......................................................................................
Other job losers............................................................................
Left last job ........................................................................................
Reentered labor force..........................................................................
Seeking first jo b ..................................................................................
866
1,868
868
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION
Total unemployed................................................................................
job losers ..........................................................................................
On layoff......................................................................................
Other job losers............................................................................
Job leavers .............................................................................. ..........
Reentrants..........................................................................................
New entrants ......................................................................................
11.2
10.8
10.8
11.0
11.2
11.2
11.6
12.8
26.2
100.0
100.0
100.0
49.7
16.8
32.9
49.7
16.7
33.1
52.8
17.1
35.7
12.1
26.4
12.7
26.3
12.9
50.1
16.8
33.3
12.4
26.1
11.5
3.7
3.6
3.6
1.9
.9
1.9
.9
1.9
.9
50.7
16.5
34.2
11.5
25.7
11.2
11.1
10.8
12.0
24.5
UNEMPLOYED AS A PERCENT OF
THE CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE
Job losers ..........................................................................................
Job leavers ........................................................................................
Reentrants..........................................................................................
New entrants .......................................................................................
7.
.8
1.8
.8
.8
1.8
.9
.8
1.8
.8
8
1.8
.8
.8
.8
1.9
1.8
.8
.8
1.8
.8
3.6
.9
1.9
.9
.8
.8
.8
3.8
.9
4.0
2.0
.8
1.8
.9
.9
Duration of unemployment, seasonally adjusted
[Numbers in thousands]
Weeks of unemployment
Less than 5 weeks ..............................................
5 to 14 weeks ....................................................
15 weeks and over..............................................
15 to 26 weeks ............................................
27 weeks and over........................................
Average (mean) duration, in weeks ......................
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Annual average
1980
1981
1979
1980
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
2,869
1,892
3,208
2,411
1,829
1,028
802
11.9
3,281
2,812
1,777
1,024
753
11.7
3,317
2,649
1,935
1,093
842
3,255
2,533
2,150
1,239
911
12.5
3,042
2,586
2,295
1,366
929
13.0
3,186
2,500
2,292
1,256
1,036
13.3
3,108
2,524
2,329
1,213
1,116
13.6
3,115
2,217
2,378
1,231
1,147
13.5
3,259
2,264
2,358
1,079
1,279
14.4
3,203
2,324
2,250
992
1,257
14.4
3,209
2,356
2,192
1,013
1,179
14.0
3,074
2,462
2,105
3,369
2,581
2,168
1,022
3,172
2,360
2,315
1,205
1,104
13.7
1,146
13.2
14.2
1,202
684
518
10.9
11.8
1,001
1,110
75
EMPLOYMENT, HOURS, AND EARNINGS DATA FROM ESTABLISHMENT SURVEYS
E m p l o y m e n t , h o u r s , a n d e a r n i n g s d a t a in this section are
compiled from payroll records reported monthly on a volun
tary basis to the Bureau of Labor Statistics and its cooperat
ing State agencies by 166,000 establishments representing all
industries except agriculture. In most industries, the sampling
probabilities are based on the size of the establishment; most
large establishments are therefore in the sample. (An estab
lishment is not necessarily a firm; it may be a branch plant,
for example, or warehouse.) Self-employed persons and others
not on a regular civilian payroll are outside the scope of the
survey because they are excluded from establishment records.
This largely accounts for the difference in employment figures
between the household and establishment surveys.
L a b o r t u r n o v e r d a t a in this section are compiled from per
sonnel records reported monthly on a voluntary basis to the
Bureau of Labor Statistics and its cooperating State agencies.
A sample of 40,000 establishments represents all industries in
the manufacturing and mining sectors of the economy.
Bureau of Labor Statistics computes spendable earnings from gross
weekly earnings for only two illustrative cases: (1) a worker with no
dependents and (2) a married worker with three dependents.
Hours represent the average weekly hours of production or
nonsupervisory workers for which pay was received and are different
from standard or scheduled hours. Overtime hours represent the por
tion of gross average weekly hours which were in excess of regular
hours and for which overtime premiums were paid.
Labor turnover is the movement of all wage and salary workers
from one employment status to another. Accession rates indicate the
average number of persons added to a payroll in a given period per
100 employees; separation rates indicate the average number dropped
from a payroll per 100 employees. Although month-to-month changes
in employment can be calculated from the labor turnover data, the re
sults are not comparable with employment data from the employment
and payroll survey. The labor turnover survey measures changes dur
ing the calendar month while the employment and payroll survey
measures changes from midmonth to midmonth.
Notes on the data
Definitions
Employed persons are all persons who received pay (including holi
day and sick pay) for any part of the payroll period including the
12th of the month. Persons holding more than one job (about 5 per
cent of all persons in the labor force) are counted in each establish
ment which reports them.
Production workers in manufacturing include blue-collar worker
supervisors and all nonsupervisory workers closely associated with
production operations. Those workers mentioned in tables 14-20 in
clude production workers in manufacturing and mining; construction
workers in construction; and nonsupervisory workers in transporta
tion and public utilities, in wholesale and retail trade, in finance, in
surance, and real estate, and in services industries. These groups
account for about four-fifths of the total employment on private
nonagricultural payrolls.
Earnings are the payments production or nonsupervisory workers
receive during the survey period, including premium pay for overtime
or late-shift work but excluding irregular bonuses and other special
payments. Real earnings are earnings adjusted to eliminate the effects
of price change. The Hourly Earnings Index is calculated from aver
age hourly earnings data adjusted to exclude the effects of two types
of changes that are unrelated to underlying wage-rate developments:
fluctuations in overtime premiums in manufacturing (the only sector
for which overtime data are available) and the effects of changes and
seasonal factors in the proportion of workers in high-wage and lowwage industries. Spendable earnings are earnings from which estimat
ed social security and Federal income taxes have been deducted. The
Digitized for
76FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Establishment data collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics are
periodically adjusted to comprehensive counts of employment (called
“benchmarks”)- The latest complete adjustment was made with the re
lease of June 1981 data, published in the August 1981 issue of the Re
view. Consequently, data published in the Review prior to that issue
are not necessarily comparable to current data. Complete comparable
historical unadjusted and seasonally adjusted data are published in a
Supplement to Employment and Earnings (unadjusted data from April
1977 through March 1981 and seasonally adjusted data from January
1974 through March 1981) and in Employment and Earnings, United
States, 1909-78, BLS Bulletin 1312-11 (for prior periods).
Data on recalls were shown for the first time in tables 12 and 13 in
the January 1978 issue of the Review. For a detailed discussion of the
recalls series, along with historical data, see “New Series on Recalls
from the Labor Turnover Survey,” Employment and Earnings, Decem
ber 1977, pp. 10-19.
A comprehensive discussion of the differences between household
and establishment data on employment appears in Gloria P. Green,
“Comparing employment estimates from household and payroll sur
veys,” Monthly Labor Review, December 1969, pp. 9-20. See also BLS
Handbook o f Methods for Surveys and Studies, Bulletin 1910 (Bureau
of Labor Statistics, 1976).
The formulas used to construct the spendable average weekly earn
ings series reflect the latest provisions of the Federal income tax and
social security tax laws. For the spendable average weekly earnings
formulas for the years 1979-81, see Employment and Earnings,
March 1981, pp. 10-11. Real earnings data are adjusted using the
Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers
(CPI-W).
8.
Employment by industry, 1951-80
[Nonagricultural payroll data, in thousands]
Year
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
Total
..........................................................
..........................................................
..........................................................
..........................................................
..........................................................
47,819
48,793
50,202
48,990
50,641
Mining
Construc
tion
Manufac
turing
Trans
portation
and
public
utilities
Whole
sale
and
retail
trade
Wholesale
trade
Retail
trade
2,637
Finance,
insur
ance,
and real
estate
Government
Services
Total
Federal
State
and local
6,389
6,609
6,645
6,751
6,914
2,302
2,420
2,305
2,188
2,187
4,087
4,188
4,340
4,563
4,727
929
898
2,668
791
792
16,393
16,632
17,549
16,314
16,882
4,226
4,248
4,290
4,084
4,141
9,742
10,004
10,247
10,235
10,535
2,727
2,812
2,854
2,867
2,926
7,015
7,192
7,393
7,368
7,610
1,956
2,035
2,659
2,646
2,839
2,298
5,547
5,699
5,835
5,969
6,240
4,244
4,241
3,976
4,011
4,004
10,858
10,750
11,127
11,391
3,018
3,028
2,980
3,082
3,143
7,840
7,858
7,770
8,045
8,248
2,389
2,438
2,481
2,549
2,629
6,497
6,708
6,765
7,087
7,378
7,278
7,616
7,839
8,083
8,353
2,209
2,217
2,191
2,233
2,270
5,069
5,399
5,648
5,850
6,083
2,688
6,868
866
2,111
2,200
1956 ..........................................................
1957 ..........................................................
1958 ..........................................................
1959’ ........................................................
1960 ..........................................................
52,369
52,853
51,324
53,268
54,189
822
828
751
732
712
3,039
2,962
2,817
3,004
2,926
17,243
17,174
15,945
16,675
16,796
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
..........................................................
..........................................................
..........................................................
..........................................................
..........................................................
53,999
55,549
56,653
58,283
60,765
672
650
635
634
632
2,859
2,948
3,010
3,097
3,232
16,326
16,853
16,995
17,274
18,062
3,903
3,906
3,903
3,951
4,036
11,337
11,566
11,778
12,160
12,716
3,133
3,198
3,248
3,337
3,466
8,204
8,368
8,530
8,823
9,250
2,754
2,830
2,911
2,977
7,620
7,982
8,277
8,660
9,036
8,594
8,890
9,225
9,596
10,074
2,279
2,340
2,358
2,348
2,378
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
..........................................................
..........................................................
..........................................................
..........................................................
..........................................................
63,901
65,803
67,897
70,384
70,880
627
613
606
619
623
3,317
3,248
3,350
3,575
3,588
19,214
19,447
19,781
20,167
19,367
4,158
4,268
4,318
4,442
4,515
13,245
13,606
14,099
14,705
15,040
3,597
3,689
3,779
3,907
3,993
9,648
9,917
10,320
10,798
11,047
3,058
3,185
3,337
3,512
3,645
9,498
10,045
10,567
11,169
11,548
10,784
11,391
11,839
12,195
12,554
2,564
2,719
2,737
2,758
2,731
8,220
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
..........................................................
..........................................................
..........................................................
..........................................................
..........................................................
71,214
73,675
76,790
78,265
76,945
609
628
642
697
752
3,704
3,889
4,097
4,020
3,525
18,623
19,151
20,154
20,077
18,323
4,476
4,541
4,656
4,725
4,542
15,352
15,949
16,607
16,987
17,060
4,001
4,113
4,277
4,433
4,415
11,351
11,836
12,329
12,554
12,645
3,772
3,908
4,046
4,148
4,165
11,797
12,276
12,857
13,441
13,892
12,881
13,334
13,732
14,170
14,686
2,696
2,684
2,663
2,724
2,748
10,185
10,649
11,068
11,446
11,937
1976 ..........................................................
1977 ..........................................................
1978 ..........................................................
1979' ........................................................
1980' ........................................................
79,382
82,471
86,697
89,823
90,564
779
813
851
958
3,576
3,851
4,229
4,463
4,399
18,997
19,682
20,505
21,040
20,300
4,582
4,713
4,923
5,136
5,143
17,755
18,516
19,542
20,192
20,386
4,546
4,708
4,969
5,204
5,281
13,209
13,808
14,573
14,989
15,104
4,271
4,467
4,724
4,975
5,168
14,551
15,303
16,252
17,112
17,901
14,871
15,127
15,672
15,947
16,249
2,733
2,727
2,753
2,773
12,138
12,399
12,919
13,147
13,383
1,020
’ Data include Alaska and Hawaii beginning in 1959.
9.
10,886
2,866
6,315
6,550
7,248
7,696
8,672
9,102
9,437
9,823
r=revised.
Employment by State
[Nonagricultural payroll data, in thousands]
State
Alabama ......................................................................
Alaska ..........................................................................
Anzona ........................................................................
Arkansas ......................................................................
California......................................................................
Colorado ......................................................................
Connecticut ..................................................................
Delaware......................................................................
District of Columbia........................................................
Florida...........................................................................
May 1980
1 ,3 4 4 .1
1 ,345.1
1 7 2 ,9
1 7 1 .0
175.2
1 ,0 1 2 . 3
1 ,0 2 2 . 0
1 ,01 9 .8
7 4 8 .0
7 5 2 .1
75 5 .5
9 ,8 6 4 . 4
9 ,8 9 6 . 8
9 ,94 5 .7
1 ,2 4 8 . 3
1 ,2 6 2 . 9
1 ,25 1 .8
1 ,4 3 5 . 5
1 ,4 3 2 . 6
1 ,441.4
25 8 .7
2 6 1 .9
2 5 7 .4
6 1 4 .2
6 1 2 .9
61 3 .2
3 ,7 5 0 . 5
3 ,736.7
2 , 1 4 7 .2
2 , 1 6 6 .4
2 ,168.4
4 0 6 .1
4 0 5 .4
4 0 5 .0
3 3 0 .5
3 2 7 .4
3 2 9 .0
4 ,9 2 0 . 9
4 ,7 9 7 . 6
4 ,82 5 .0
2 , 1 5 2 .4
2 ,1 2 3 . 8
2 ,133.9
1 , 1 1 7 .2
1 ,0 8 4 . 9
1 ,090.9
9 5 4 .9
9 5 8 .8
963.1
1 ,2 2 7 . 3
1 ,1 7 7 . 6
1 ,179.0
1 ,5 4 9 . 9
1 ,6 2 1 . 0
1 ,6 2 3 .7
4 2 0 .2
4 1 3 .0
419.8
Georgia........................................................................
Hawaii...........................................................................
Idaho............................................................................
Illinois ..........................................................................
Indiana..........................................................................
Iowa ............................................................................
Kansas ........................................................................
Kentucky ......................................................................
Louisiana......................................................................
Maine ..........................................................................
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 1981 p
1 ,3 6 7 . 9
3 ,5 5 9 . 4
Marylanc ......................................................................
Massachusetts..............................................................
Michigan ......................................................................
Minnesota ....................................................................
Mississippi ....................................................................
Missouri........................................................................
Apr. 1981
1 ,7 1 1 . 5
1 ,7 0 0 . 8
1 ,7 0 5 .5
2 ,6 6 4 . 8
2 ,6 8 2 .1
2 ,6 9 1 .6
3 ,4 1 6 . 5
3 ,4 6 1 . 5
3 ,490.4
1 ,7 8 6 . 2
1 ,7 5 1 . 8
1 ,768.7
8 3 4 .4
8 3 0 .8
82 9 .0
1 ,9 6 8 .1
1 ,98 1 ,5
1 ,9 8 5 . 6
State
Mortana..................................................................
Nebraska................................................................
Nevada ..................................................................
New Hampshire ......................................................
New Jersey ............................................................
New Mexico............................................................
New York................................................................
North Carolina ........................................................
North Dakota ..........................................................
Oh® ......................................................................
Oklahoma ..............................................................
Oregon ..................................................................
Pennsylvania ..........................................................
Rhode Island ..........................................................
South Carolina ........................................................
South Dakota..........................................................
Tennessee ..............................................................
Texas ....................................................................
Utah ......................................................................
Vermont..................................................................
May 1980
Apr. 1981
May 1981 ”
28 3 .0
28 1 .5
284.2
63 8 .5
628.8
6 3 6 .5
409.4
4 1 5 .0
399.3
384.1
381.6
385.2
3 ,059.4
3 ,070.8
3 ,082.1
467.1
465.6
469.3
7 ,241.6
7 ,2 1 0 .0
7 ,260.0
2 ,3 9 2 .0
2 ,397.3
2 ,400.1
248.8
245.2
249.4
4 ,418.2
4 ,370.5
4 ,401.1
1,136.8
1 ,174.5
1 ,180.5
1 ,042.9
1 ,0 1 8 .0
1 ,022.2
4 ,794.1
4 ,694.9
4 ,7 1 4 .6
399.8
396.4
3 9 8 .0
1 ,199.1
1 ,191.6
1 ,194.7
241.4
2 3 3 .2
236.7
1 ,753.1
1 ,7 2 2 .0
1 ,731.7
5 ,820.7
6 ,0 7 9 .0
6 ,101.5
5 5 2 .6
554.7
554.4
198.8
2 0 0 .8
2 0 1 .3
Virginia....................................................................
Wasningtor ............................................................
West Virginia ..........................................................
Wisconsin................................................................
Wyoming ................................................................
2 ,119.9
2 ,123.2
2 ,132.4
1 ,6 2 2 .2
1 ,595.8
1 ,606.1
1 ,9 3 7 .6
1 ,934.8
1 ,95 0 .5
204.9
202.4
20 5 .0
Virgin Islands ..........................................................
37 .0
36.7
36.8
77
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW August 1981 • Current Labor Statistics: Establishment Data
10.
Employment by industry division and major manufacturing group
[Nonagricultural payroll data, In thousands]
Annual average
1980
1981
Industry division and group
1979
1980
June
July
Aug.
Sept
Oct
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May”
Junep
TOTAL ..........................................................
89,823
90,564
90,955
89,711
89,969
90,638
91,244
91,599
91,750
89,988
90,138
90,720
91,337
91,816
92,378
MINING ..............................................................
958
1,044
1,025
1,024
1,030
1,034
1,051
1,060
1,066
1,071
1,084
941
955
1,128
1,020
CONSTRUCTION ................................................
4,463
4,399
4,545
4,562
4,637
4,613
4,619
4,533
4,343
3,995
3,901
4,048
4,246
4,344
4,455
MANUFACTURING..............................................
Production workers..................................
21,040
15,068
20,300
14,223
20,146
14,047
19,702
13,614
19,997
13,907
20,212
14,131
20,235
14,141
20,293
14,190
20,238
14,126
20,075
13,975
20,065
13,971
20,160
14,049
20,253
14,127
20,343
14,201
20,508
14,343
Durable goods ................................................
Production workers..........................
12,760
9,110
12,181
8,438
12,036
8,284
11,743
11,796
8,048
11,990
8,244
12,061
8,304
12,156
8,391
12,147
8,374
12,072
8,305
12,042
8,279
12,120
8,345
12,197
8,412
12,236
8,442
12,312
8,509
Lumber and wood products ............................
Furniture and fixtures......................................
Stone, clay, and glass products ......................
Primary metal industries..................................
Fabricated metal products ..............................
Machinery, except electrical............................
Electric and electronic equipment....................
Transportation equipment................................
Instruments and related products ....................
Miscellaneous manufacturing ..........................
766.9
497.8
708.7
1,253.9
1,717.7
2,484.8
2,116.9
2,077.2
691.2
444.8
690.3
468.8
665.6
1,144.1
1,609.0
2,497.0
2,103.2
1,875.3
708.5
419.3
670.8
455.9
663.9
1,123.6
1,580.0
2,497.4
2,079.7
1,835.1
711.5
417.7
669.4
433.4
654.3
1,065.7
1,519.9
2,448.6
2,043.8
1,798.9
707.4
401.8
686.5
449.8
661.4
1,069.9
1,549.9
2,426.4
2,057.5
1,772.5
707.0
415.2
693.6
461.6
665.5
1,092.0
1,576.4
2,453.4
2,079.6
1,842.4
705.6
419.8
691.4
465.0
663.5
1,103.7
1,586.6
2,461.2
2,094.8
1,869.0
706.3
419.2
6879
468.6
665.2
1,123.3
1,597.6
2,479.6
2,109.6
1,894.6
711.2
417.9
685.9
470.5
652.3
1,136.3
1,596.4
2,496.8
2,118.0
1,871.4
713.8
405.9
674.6
469.6
635.0
1,136.7
1,580.2
2,496.9
2,114.0
1,854.9
712.4
398.0
674.5
471.7
630.6
1,137.7
1,578.1
2,498.4
2,112.3
1,824.8
710.1
403.3
678.3
472.1
639.5
1,141.3
1,585.4
2,504.3
2,119.5
1,860.4
712.1
406.7
686.9
478.0
652.6
1,149.9
1,593.7
2,506.1
2,129.7
1,874.3
714.4
411.3
703.5
478.8
660.2
1,146.2
1,595.2
2,508.9
2,134.9
1,880.0
715.7
412.8
710.4
482.5
669.3
1,153.4
1,607.2
2,522.9
2,149.4
1,880.3
719.8
417.1
Nondurable goods ..........................................
Production workers..................................
8,280
5,958
8,118
5,786
8,110
7,959
5,614
8,201
8,222
5,859
5,887
8,174
5,837
8,137
5,799
8,091
5,752
8,003
5,670
8,023
5,692
8,040
5,704
8,056
5,715
8,107
5,759
8,196
5,834
Food and kindred products..............................
Tobacco manufactures ..................................
Textile mill products........................................
Apparel and other textile products ..................
Paper and allied products ..............................
Printing and publishing....................................
Chemicals and allied products ........................
Petroleum and coal products ..........................
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products . . .
Leather and leather products..........................
1,732.5
70.0
885.1
1,304.3
7068
1,235.1
1,109.3
209.8
781.6
245.7
1,710.8
69.2
852.7
1,265.8
694.0
1,258.3
1,107.4
196.6
730.7
232.6
1,694.9
65.2
842.1
1,281.2
695.6
1,257.7
1,116.8
208.5
711.0
236.8
1,731.7
64.6
809.8
1,208.5
682.5
1,251.3
1,106.2
211.4
680.8
1,828.7
71.2
842.5
1,267.6
689.0
1,251.0
,102.8
1,823.5
74.9
843.3
1,274.3
211.8
1,688.5
74.4
846.1
1,241.1
691.5
1,278.3
,101.2
2068
733.2
229.4
1,645.2
72.0
841.0
,222.8
687.7
1,269.0
,100.1
206.5
731.8
226.9
1,639.2
70.6
841.1
1,238.7
687.7
1,273.6
1,102.9
205.7
734.2
229.5
1,631.0
718.0
232.7
1,719.3
75.3
847.8
1,262.3
691.4
1,268.2
,100.1
209.5
730.6
232.5
1,632.5
68.3
840.9
1,250.2
702.2
234.4
1,765.2
75.9
845.4
1,270.5
690.6
1,259.1
1,099.5
209.7
725.7
232.1
1,648.5
65.1
843.6
1,266.8
692.8
1,281.8
,110.6
212.7
749.0
236.0
1,680.6
67.1
849.6
1,281.0
701.5
1,285.3
1,119.1
214.0
758.1
240.1
5,136
5,143
5,177
5,132
5,134
5,159
5,166
5,147
5,150
5,063
5,076
5,095
5,120
5,141
5,214
20,192
20,386
20,347
20,300
20,373
20,495
20,533
20,761
21,138
20,366
20,196
20,290
20,513
20,672
20,759
5,204
5,281
5,287
5,280
5,287
5,293
5,315
5,312
5,315
5,276
5,273
5,293
5,317
5,337
5,377
14,989
15,104
15,060
15,020
15,086
15,202
15,218
15,449
15,823
15,090
14,923
14,997
15,196
15,335
15,382
4,975
5,168
5,206
5,234
5,238
5,201
5,211
5,223
5,237
5,235
5,245
5,263
5,295
5,322
5,382
SERVICES ..........................................................
17,112
17,901
18,013
18,145
18,136
18,087
18,115
18,118
18,149
17,972
18,126
18,287
18,512
18,629
18,752
GOVERNMENT ....................................................
Federal..........................................................
State and local ..............................................
15,947
2,773
13,174
16,249
16,477
2,995
13,482
15,611
2,949
12,662
15,430
2,862
12,568
15,841
2,754
13,087
16,331
2,774
13,557
16,473
2,776
13,697
16,435
2,782
13,653
16,216
2,773
13,443
16,458
2,774
13,684
16,493
2,769
13,724
16,457
2,773
13,684
16,410
2,783
13,627
16,180
2,822
13,358
TRANSPORTATION AND PUBLIC UTILITIES
WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE
WHOLESALE TRADE ..........................................
RETAIL TRADE
FINANCE, INSURANCE, AND REAL ESTATE . .
.
2,866
13,383
5,763
8,000
1
211.8
note: In accordance with usual practice, BLS has revised establishment survey data to reflect a new
benchmark and updated seasonal adjustment factors. Because these revisions, establishment data In
Digitized for
78 FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
688.6
1,255.1
1,100.9
210.2
1
1
1
1
688.6
1,278.2
1,106.8
207.0
737.2
230.4
66.2
841.6
1,255.2
690.9
1,280.4
1,106.2
209.5
743.5
231.7
this table may differ from data published earlier. See technical note, page 76.
1
11.
Employment by industry division and major manufacturing group, seasonally adjusted
[Nonagricultural payroll data, In thousands]
1980
1981
Industry division and group
TOTAL ..........................................................................................
June
July
Aug.
Sept
Oct
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May”
Junep
90,087
89,960
90,219
90,461
90,668
90,844
90,949
91,091
91,258
91,347
91,458
91,530
91,516
MINING ..............................................................................................
1,024
1,004
1,008
1,023
1,032
1,052
1,069
1,083
1,091
1,098
950
955
1,106
CONSTRUCTION ................................................................................
4,345
4,270
4,324
4,362
4,379
4,389
4,387
4,390
4,389
4,416
4,418
4,322
4,263
MANUFACTURING..............................................................................
Production workers..................................................................
20,033
13,957
19,877
13,814
19,990
13,930
20,060
13,992
20,110
14,024
20,188
14,081
20,175
14,059
20,174
14,053
20,177
14,053
20,191
14,074
20,332
14,187
20,413
14,255
20,405
14,262
Durable goods ................................................................................
Production workers..................................................................
11,973
8,232
11,859
8,131
11,907
8,176
11,968
8,229
12,013
8,259
12,090
8,320
12,077
8,301
12,084
8,306
12,074
8,297
12,099
8,325
12,207
8,412
12,252
8,449
12,257
8,464
Lumber and wood products ............................................................
Furniture and fixtures......................................................................
Stone, clay, and glass products ......................................................
Primary metal industries..................................................................
Fabricated metal products ......................................................
Machinery, except electrical............................................................
Electric and electronic equipment....................................................
Transportation equipment................................................................
Instruments and related products ....................................................
Miscellaneous manufacturing ..........................................................
659
460
650
1,113
1,575
2,488
2,074
1,836
705
413
662
447
645
1,070
1,545
2,462
2,064
1,841
708
415
671
456
651
1,077
1,567
2,454
2,074
1,839
707
411
680
462
656
1,092
1,575
2,463
2,078
1,843
709
410
679
462
655
1,108
1,578
2,481
2,087
1,848
709
406
683
463
658
1,126
1,582
2,489
2,096
1,874
712
407
687
464
655
1,137
1,581
2,490
2,103
1,839
712
409
689
464
654
1,137
1,579
2,487
691
466
654
1,140
1,577
2,481
702
478
656
1,145
1,595
2,491
2,134
1,878
714
414
710
484
658
1,140
1,603
2,511
2,143
1,874
716
413
699
488
656
1,142
1,604
2,513
2,145
1,884
713
413
Nondurable goods ..........................................................................
Production workers..................................................................
8,060
5,725
8,018
5,683
8,083
5,754
8,092
5,763
8,097
5,765
8,098
5,761
Food and kindred products..............................................................
Tobacco manufactures ..................................................................
Textile mill products........................................................................
Apparel and other textile products ..................................................
Paper and allied products ..............................................................
Printing and publishing....................................................................
Chemicals and allied products ........................................................
Petroleum and coal products ..........................................................
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products ....................................
Leather and leather products ..........................................................
1,696
70
837
1,261
689
1,255
1,107
205
709
231
1,708
70
828
1,254
682
1,255
1,099
208
692
1,720
1,712
844
1,263
687
1,256
1,097
208
708
232
843
1,261
689
1,261
1,711
69
845
1,256
691
1,262
TRANSPORTATION AND PUBLIC UTILITIES ......................................
5,129
5,119
5,126
222
68
1,101
1,102
208
717
232
208
722
231
1,705
71
844
1,253
692
1,265
1,103
209
725
231
5,124
5,129
5,114
68
2,110
2,110
1,840
713
411
1,833
711
411
692
467
651
1,141
1,581
2,480
2,117
1,849
712
409
8,098
5,758
8,090
5,747
8,103
5,756
8,092
5,749
8,125
5,775
8,161
5,806
8,148
5,798
1,701
71
842
1,250
692
1,269
1,105
209
729
230
1,696
71
841
1,244
691
1,269
1,106
1,705
72
839
1,243
691
1,272
1,109
1,691
72
838
1,243
689
1,276
1,108
1,697
72
842
1,250
691
1,280
1,107
1,681
72
845
1,261
695
1,283
1,109
730
231
731
231
734
231
744
231
1,703
71
843
1,259
694
1,283
1,109
213
753
233
5,118
5,124
5,135
5,139
5,161
5,141
5,167
20,681
211
210
210
211
211
757
234
WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE......................................................
20,266
20,355
20,413
20,450
20,461
20,464
20,470
20,529
20,600
20,635
20,636
20,714
WHOLESALE TRADE ..........................................................................
5,253
5,261
5,274
5,290
5,296
5,296
5,300
5,305
5,313
5,316
5,333
5,348
5,345
15,287
15,319
15,303
15,366
15,336
RETAIL TRADE....................................................................................
15,013
15,094
15,139
15,160
15,165
15,168
15,170
15,224
FINANCE, INSURANCE, AND REAL ESTATE ......................................
5,156
5,173
5,188
5,206
5221
5,235
5,254
5,268
5,283
5,293
5,316
5,322
5,329
SERVICES ..........................................................................................
17,816
17,940
17,981
18,043
18,087
18,160
18,240
18,300
18,343
18,371
18,475
18,536
18,548
GOVERNMENT ....................................................................................
Federa ..........................................................................................
State and local ..............................................................................
16,318
2,951
13,367
16,222
2,893
13,329
16,189
2,808
13,381
16,193
2,784
13,409
16,249
2,795
13,454
16,242
2,796
13,446
16,236
2,800
13,436
16,223
2,799
13,424
16,240
2,795
13,445
16,204
2,781
13,423
16,170
2,767
13,403
16,127
2,780
13,347
16,017
2,778
13,239
note: In accordance with usual practice, BLS has revised establishment survey data to reflect a
new benchmark and updated seasonal adjustment factors. Because of these revisions,
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
establishment data in this table may differ from data published earlier. See technical note, page 76.
79
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW August 1981 • Current Labor Statistics: Establishment Data
12.
Labor turnover rates in manufacturing, 1978 to date
[Per 100 employees]
Year
Annual
average
Jan.
Mar.
Feb.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
4.4
4.3
3.8
5.4
5.0
4.5
4.9
4.5
4.3
4.3
4.1
3.6
3.3
3.0
2.7
2.4
3.3
3.1
4.2
3.7
2.5
3.9
3.4
3.5
3.1
2.6
2.2
1.6
1.7
1.5
.7
.5
.5
Total accessions
1978
1979
1980
1981
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
4.1
4.0
3.5
3.8
4.0
3.8
3.4
3.2
3.4
3.3
3.0
3.8
3.8
3.5
3.4
4.0
3.9
3.1
3.3
4.7
4.7
3.4
p3.4
1978
1979
1980
1981
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
3.1
2.9
2.5
2.2
2.5
2.2
1.8
2.7
2.9
2.9
3.6
3.6
4.9
4.8
3.9
2.2
2.2
New hires
2.8
2.4
1.8
2.1
2.8
2.3
2.0
2.0
2.0
3.9
3.8
2.4
2.1
2.1
2.6
2.2
1.2
p2.2
Recalls
1978
1979
1980
1981
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
1.0
.9
1.1
.7
.7
1.1
.8
.7
.7
.9
.8
.8
1.0
.7
1.1
1.0
1.3
.8
.8
1.1
.7
.9
.8
.7
.7
1.2
.9
.9
1.7
1.4
.6
.7
1.1
.5
.9
1.5
4.1
4.3
4.2
5.3
5.7
4.8
4.9
4.7
4.1
4.1
4.2
3.8
3.5
3.8
3.0
3.5
3.3
3.1
2.7
1.9
2.1
.8
.6
.8
.9
p1.0
Total separations
1978
1979
1980
1981
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
........ ..................................
3.9
4.0
4.0
3.6
3.8
4.1
3.6
3.1
3.2
3.5
3.1
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.2
3.6
3.7
4.7
3.1
1978
1979
1980
1981
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
2.1
2.0
1.5
1.4
1.6
1.1
1.8
1.9
1.6
1.2
2.0
2.0
1978
1979
1980
1981
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
.9
.9
.9
.8
3.7
3.8
4.8
p3.0
3.8
3.9
4.4
3.4
3.5
3.1
Quits
1.8
1.6
1.2
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.3
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.0
1.5
p1.3
1.4
1.4
2.2
1.1
2.0
1.3
1.7
2.3
1.7
1.3
1.6
1.1
1.1
1.4
1.4
1.7
.9
Layoffs
1.2
1.1
1.6
1.6
1.1
1.7
.8
1.3
1.2
.8
1.2
1.2
.7
.7
2.5
p1.0
.9
2.3
1.0
.8
1.4
2.2
.8
1.1
1.2
.9
1.0
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.6
this table may differ from data published earlier. See technical note, page 76.
note: In accordance with usual practice, BLS has revised establishment survey data to reflect a new
benchmark and updated seasonal adjustment factors. Because of these revisions, establishment data in
13.
.7
.9
Labor turnover rates in manufacturing, by major industry group
[Per 100 employees]
Accession rates
Major industry group
MANUFACTURING
Seasonally adjusted..............
Durable goods..................................
Lumber and wood products..........
Furniture and fixtures ..................
Stone, clay, and glass products . . .
Primary metal industries ..............
Fabricated metal products............
Machinery, except electrical..........
Electric and electronic equipment ..
Transportation equipment ............
Instruments and related products ..
Miscellaneous manufacturing........
Nondurable goods............................
Food and kindred products ..........
Tobacco manufacturers................
Textile mill products ....................
Apparel and other products..........
Paper and allied products ............
Printing and publishing..................
Chemicals and allied products . . . .
Petroleum and coal products........
Rubber and miscellaneous
plastics products......................
Leather and leather products........
note:
Total
May
1980
Apr.
1981
May
1981 o
May
1980
Apr.
1981
3.4
3.1
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.0
2.8
3.1
5.5
4.3
4.5
2.7
3.4
2.3
2.5
3.2
3.1
5.6
3.7
4.1
2.0
2.1
1.8
4.0
2.1
1.8
1.6
2.4
2.2
1.9
.8
1.9
1.6
1.7
1.1
2.2
2.6
2.8
3.9
5.4
3.0
3.9
.9
3.0
3.6
1.7
5.5
3.1
3.9
2.1
3.2
2.2
2.5
2.6
2.7
4.0
4.2
6.6
3.7
3.8
5.6
2.7
3.2
2.2
4.4
3.7
5.2
2.5
3.6
5.1
2.5
3.3
2.8
1.5
2.6
3.2
7.0
6.1
2.0
3.7
Separation rates
New hires
2.6
3.3
2.5
2.5
2.5
4.5
6.0
2.1
1.9
2.8
4.0
6.8
2.6
1.5
2.6
2.0
5.3
3.3
3.0
2.1
1.0
2.0
1.5
1.6
1.2
1.8
2.7
Recalls
Quits
Layoffs
May
1981 p
May
1980
Apr.
1981
May
1981p
May
1980
Apr.
1981
May
1981 p
May
1980
Apr.
1981
May
1981p
May
1980
Apr.
1981
May
1981p
2.2
1.0
1.0
.8
2.9
.6
1.8
.9
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
2.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
4.8
5.5
3.1
3.2
3.0
3.3
1.5
1.5
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
2.5
3.2
1.0
1.1
1.0
.9
1.7
.7
5.0
6.5
5.8
5.1
6.4
5.8
3.8
4.2
5.6
2.7
4.7
4.0
3.0
2.7
4.3
3.7
3.1
2.4
2.9
2.3
2.5
1.2
2.1
2.2
1.1
2.4
2.0
1.2
.6
1.1
2.2
1.8
1.1
.5
1.2
.9
1.0
1.1
1.6
1.6
2.9
3.5
.9
1.5
.9
1.9
2.4
.7
1.3
2.3
1.4
1.9
1.9
3.6
2.9
2.3
1.2
2.1
1.7
1.7
1.9
2.9
2.6
2.4
3.1
3.5
2.7
3.2
1.4
3.0
3.6
1.9
.6
Total
2.2
1.1
1.8
1.6
1.5
2.1
2.4
4.1
2.7
4.8
In accordance with usual practice, BLS has revised establishment survey data to reflect a new
and updated seasonal adjustment factors. Because of these revisions, establishment data in
Digitized for benchmark
FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve
Bank of St. Louis
80
.4
.4
.8
.2
1.2
1.2
2.4
1.0
.5
1.8
.8
.5
.3
2.3
1.3
1.1
.6
.5
1.6
.2
1.6
1.1
1.0
.6
.5
1.4
.4
1.4
2.8
6.0
1.0
1.1
1.9
1.3
2.3
4.6
5.7
1.9
4.7
.6
1.6
.9
.5
.2
.6
.8
6.1
.5
.3
2.0
1.5
.6
.7
.9
1.5
1.0
.6
1.0
1.7
1.7
3.0
3.3
2.2
3.2
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.2
3.6
3.6
4.9
3.9
3.8
5.1
2.3
2.9
1.4
2.3
3.9
3.4
4.7
3.6
5.0
2.3
2.3
1.8
2.0
1.4
2.0
6.7
7.4
3.6
5.5
3.4
5.9
1.3
.5
1.3
1.0
1.2
.8
1.2
1.3
.9
1.0
.8
1.1
1.9
1.5
1.9
2.3
.3
2.4
3.0
.9
1.9
.7
1.6
1.9
.2
2.1
2.5
.8
1.7
.6
.6
1.7
3.5
2.1
.8
1.0
.6
2.5
.7
.7
1.6
2.8
3.1
1.6
this table may differ from data published earlier. See technical note, page 76.
2.6
2.9
5.1
3.6
2.0
2.1
3.9
.9
3.1
1.8
.8
.8
1.1
4.0
2.9
1.3
.9
1.1
.8
1.2
.8
1.2
.9
1.2
1.1
1.1
.8
.7
.9
.4
1.3
.5
1.5
.7
1.2
2.3
2.6
.7
1.8
.8
.6
1.1
2.1
.3
.5
.3
.7
1.0
1.8
1.8
.7
1.7
.8
.6
.9
14.
Hours and earnings, by industry division, 1950-80
[G r o s s a v e r a g e s , p r o d u c tio n o r n o n s u p e r v is o r y w o r k e r s o n n o n a g r ic u ltu r a l p a y r o lls ]
Year
Average
weekly
earnings
Average
weekly
hours
Average
hourly
earnings
Average
weekly
earnings
Average
weekly
hours
Average
weekly
hours
Average
hourly
earnings
40.5
$1,440
2.13
2.28
2.39
2.45
63.34
66.75
70.47
70.49
75.30
40.6
40.7
40.5
39.6
40.7
1.56
1.64
1.74
1.78
1.85
37.5
37.0
36.8
37.0
36.7
2.57
2.71
2.82
2.93
3.07
78.78
81.19
82.32
88.26
89.72
40.4
39.8
39.2
40.3
39.7
1.95
2.04
2.10
118.08
122.47
127.19
132.06
138.38
36.9
37.0
37.3
37.2
37.4
3.20
3.31
3.41
3.55
3.70
92.34
96.56
99.23
102.97
107.53
39.8
40.4
40.5
40.7
41.2
2.32
2.39
2.45
2.53
2.61
3.05
3.19
3.35
3.60
3.85
146.26
154.95
164.49
181.54
195.45
37.6
37.7
37.3
37.9
37.3
3.89
4.11
4.41
4.79
5.24
112.19
114.49
122.51
129.51 133.33
41.4
40.6
40.7
40.6
39.8
2.71
2.82
3.01
3.19
3.35
$1,863
1.93
2.20
76.96
82.86
86.41
88.91
90.90
38.1
38.9
37.9
37.2
37.1
2.33
2.45
2.47
2.56
2.60
96.38
100.27
103.78
108.41
112.67
40.5
41.0
41.6
41.9
42.3
2.64
2.70
2.75
2.81
2.92
2.85
3.04
3.23
130.24
135.89
142.71
154.80
164.40
42.7
42.6
42.6
43.0
42.7
$67.16
37.9
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
57.86
60.65
63.76
64.52
67.72
39.9
39.9
39.6
39.1
39.6
1.45
1.52
1.61
1.65
1.71
74.11
77.59
83.03
82.60
89.54
38.4
38.6
38.8
38.6
40.7
1956 ..................
1957 ..................
1958 ..................
1959' ................
1960 ..................
70.74
73.33
75.08
78.78
80.67
39.3
38.8
38.5
39.0
38.6
1.80
1.89
1.95
95.06
98.25
96.08
103.68
105.04
40.8
40.1
38.9
40.5
40.4
1961..................
1962 ..................
1963 ..................
1964 ..................
1965 ..................
82.60
85.91
88.46
91.33
95.45
38.6
38.7
38.8
38.7
38.8
106.92
110.70
114.40
117.74
123.52
2.02
2.09
2.14
2.22
2.28
2.36
2.46
2.56
Average
hourly
earnings
$58.32
37.4
$1,335
Average
weekly
hours
Manufacturing
$69.68
39.8
Average
weekly
earnings
Construction
$1,772
$53.13
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
Average
weekly
earnings
Mining
Total private
1950 ..................
Average
hourly
earnings
2.01
2.14
2.14
2.02
2.19
2.26
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
9882
101.84
107.73
114.61
119.83
38.6
38.0
37.8
37.7
37.1
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
127.31
136.90
145.39
154.76
163.53
369
37.0
36.9
36.5
36.1
3.45
3.70
3.94
4.24
4.53
172.14
189.14
201.40
219.14
249.31
42.4
42.6
42.4
41.9
41.9
4.06
4.44
4.75
5.23
5.95
211.67
221.19
235.89
249.25
266.08
37.2
36.5
36.8
36.6
36.4
5.69
6.06
6.41
6.81
7.31
142.44
154.71
166.46
176.80
190.79
39.9
40.5
40.7
40.0
39.5
3.57
3.82
4.09
4.42
4.83
1976 ..................
1977 ..................
1978 ..................
1979r ................
1980' ................
175.45
189.00
203.70
21991
235.10
36.1
36.0
35.8
35.7
35.3
486
5.25
5.69
6.16
273.90
301.20
332.88
365.07
396.14
42.4
43.4
43.4
43.0
43.2
6.46
6.94
7.67
8.49
9.17
283.73
295.65
318.69
342.99
367.04
36.8
36.5
36.8
37.0
37.0
7.71
209.32
228.90
249.27
269.34
288.62
40.1
40.3
40.4
40.2
39.7
5.22
5.68
6.17
6.70
7.27
2.68
6.66
Transportation and public
utilities
8.10
8.66
9.27
9.92
Finance, insurance, and
real estate
Wholesale and retail trade
Services
1950
$44.55
40.5
$1,100
$50.52
37.7
$1,340
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
47 79
49 20
51 35
53 33
55 16
40.5
40 0
39.5
39.5
39 4
1.18
1.23
1 30
1.35
1 40
54.67
57.08
59.57
62.04
63.92
37.7
37.8
37.7
37.6
37.6
1.45
1.51
1.58
1.65
1.70
1956
1957
1958
1959'
1960
57.48
59 60
61 76
64 41
01
1 47
1.54
60
66
39.1
38 7
38 6
38 8
38 6
36.9
36.7
37.1
37.3
37.2
1.78
1.84
1.89
1.95
1.71
65.68
67.53
70.12
72.74
75.14
2.02
1961
1962
1963
1964 ..................
1965 ..................
38 3
382
38.1
37.9
37.7
1.76
1.83
1.89
1.97
2.04
77.12
80.94
84.38
85.79
88.91
36.9
37.3
37.5
37.3
37.2
2.09
2.17
2.25
2.30
2.39
$70.03
73.60
36.1
35.9
$1.94
2.05
$118.78
125.14
41.1
41.3
$2.89
3.03
67.41
69 91
72 01
74.66
76.91
1
1.66
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
128.13
130.82
138.85
147.74
155.93
41.2
40.5
40.6
40.7
40.5
3.11
3.23
3.42
3.63
3.85
79.39
82.35
87.00
91.39
96.02
37.1
36.6
36.1
35.7
35.3
2.14
2.25
2.41
2.56
2.72
92.13
95.72
101.75
108.70
112.67
37.3
37.1
37.0
37.1
36.7
2.47
2.58
2.75
2.93
3.07
77.04
80.38
83.97
90.57
96.66
35.5
35.1
34.7
34.7
34.4
2.17
2.29
2.42
2.61
2.81
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
168.82
187.86
203.31
217.48
233.44
40.1
40.4
40.5
40.2
39.7
4.21
4.65
5.02
5.41
5.88
101.09
106.45
111.76
119.02
126.45
35.1
34.9
34.6
34.2
33.9
2.88
3.05
3.23
3.48
3.73
117.85
122.98
129.20
137.61
148.19
36.6
36.6
36.6
36.5
36.5
3.22
3.36
3.53
3.77
4.06
103.06
110.85
117.29
126.00
134.67
33.9
33.9
33.8
33.6
33.5
3.04
3.27
3.47
3.75
4.02
1976 ..................
1977 ..................
1978 ..................
1979' ................
1980r ................
256.71
278.90
302.80
325.58
351.25
39.8
39.9
40,0
39.9
39.6
6.45
6.99
7.57
8.16
8.87
133.79
142.52
153.64
164.96
176.46
33.7
33.3
32.9
32.6
32.2
3.97
4.28
4.67
5.06
5.48
155.43
165.26
178.00
190.77
209.24
36.4
36.4
36.4
36.2
36.2
4.27
4.54
4.89
5.27
5.78
143.52
153.45
163.67
175.27
190.71
33 3.
33.0
32.8
32.7
32.6
4.31
4,65
4.99
5.36
5.85
1Data include Alaska and Hawaii beginning in 1959.
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
r= revised.
81
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW August 1981 • Current Labor Statistics: Establishment Data
15.
Weekly hours, by industry division and major manufacturing group
[G r o s s a v e r a g e s , p r o d u c tio n o r n o n s u p e r v is o r y w o r k e r s o n p r iv a te n o n a g r ic u ltu r a l p a y r o lls ]
Annual average
1980
1981
Industry division and group
1979
1980
June
July
Aug.
Sept
Oct
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
Maye
Junep
TOTAL PRIVATE..........................................
35.7
35.3
35.3
35.3
35.5
35.3
35.3
35.3
35.6
35.1
35.0
35.2
35.2
35.2
35.4
43.6
42.8
42.3
43.6
43.7
43.0
MINING..............................................................
43.0
43.2
43.2
42.0
43.2
43.5
43.6
43.6
44.1
CONSTRUCTION................................................
37.0
37.0
37.9
37.7
37.3
38.0
37.9
36.8
37.2
36.4
35.0
37.2
36.9
36.8
37.6
MANUFACTURING ............................................
Overtime hours......................................
40.2
3.3
39.7
39.3
2.5
388
2.4
39.4
2.7
39.8
3.0
39.8
2.9
40.2
3.1
40.8
3.3
39.9
2.9
39.5
39.9
39.7
40.1
2.9
40.1
3.0
Durable goods ..............................................
Overtime hours......................................
40.8
3.5
40.1
2.8
39.7
2.4
39.0
2.3
39.7
40.2
2.9
40.3
2.9
40.7
3.1
41.5
3.4
40.4
2.9
39.9
2.8
40.5
2.9
40.3
2.7
40.6
3.0
40.6
3.0
Lumber and wood products ..........................
Furniture and fixtures ....................................
Stone, clay, and glass products .......................
Primary metal industries................................
Fabricated metal products ............................
39.4
38.7
41.5
41.4
40.7
38.6
38.1
40.8
40.1
40.4
38.4
37.3
41.0
39.1
40.1
38.1
36.2
40.3
38.6
39.2
39.2
37.6
40.7
39.0
40.0
39.3
38.3
41.1
39.9
40.5
39.2
38.5
41.3
39.9
40.5
39.2
38.4
41.4
40.8
40.9
39.7
39.6
41.6
41.6
41.6
38.8
38.1
40.3
41.1
40.4
38.5
38.3
39.6
40.7
40.0
39.0
38.8
40.6
41.1
40.6
39.1
38.2
40.9
41.2
40.2
39.6
38.5
41.1
40.9
40.7
39.4
39.0
40.9
41.0
40.7
Machinery except electrical............................
Electric and electronic equipment ..................
Transportation equipment ..............................
Instruments and related products ..................
Miscellaneous manufacturing ........................
41.8
40.3
41.1
40.8
38.8
41.0
39.8
40.6
40.5
38.7
40.7
39.4
40.0
40.5
38.3
39.9
384
39.6
39.6
37.7
40.3
39.2
40.0
39.9
38.5
41.0
39.7
40.7
40.1
39.1
40.7
39.8
41.1
40.3
38.9
41.3
40.4
41.7
40.9
39.1
42.2
41.0
43.1
41.2
39.5
41.2
40.1
40.9
40.6
38.6
40.8
39.6
40.1
40.5
38.4
41.2
40.2
41.1
40.6
38.9
40.8
39.8
41.0
39.9
38.6
41.2
40.1
41.6
40.3
38.8
41.3
40.1
41.3
40.3
39.1
Nondurable goods
Overtime hours......................................
39.3
3.1
39.0
38.8
2.5
38.5
39.0
2.9
39.1
3.1
39.1
2.9
39.4
3.0
39.9
3.1
39.2
2.9
38.9
39.1
2.7
38.9
39.4
2.9
39.4
2.9
Food and kindred products............................
Tobacco manufactures..................................
Textile mill products......................................
Apparel and other textile products..................
Paper and allied products..............................
39.9
38.0
40.4
35.3
42.6
39.7
38.1
40.1
35.4
42.3
39.6
38.4
39.6
35.6
41.7
39.9
36.6
38.5
35.3
41.4
40.4
36.9
39.2
35.4
41.8
40.3
38.2
39.8
35.2
42.3
39.7
40.0
39.9
35.5
42.2
40.1
40.1
40.3
35.4
42.8
40.3
38.1
40.9
35.9
43.7
40.0
38.6
39.9
35.2
42.7
39.3
38.5
39.9
35.3
42.2
39.2
37.2
40.1
35.8
42.4
39.3
37.2
39.4
35.2
42.3
39.7
38.6
40.4
36.1
42.6
39.7
36.8
40.4
36.3
42.6
Printing and publishing ..................................
Chemicals and allied products........................
Petroleum and coal products ........................
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products ..
Leather and leather products ........................
37.5
41.9
43.8
40.5
36.5
37.1
41.5
41.8
40.1
36.7
36.7
41.2
42.3
39.3
37.4
36.8
40.7
42.7
38.6
36.4
37.2
40.9
42.2
40.0
36.6
37.2
41.3
43.4
40.3
36.3
37.2
41.5
43.7
40.7
36.6
37.2
42.0
43.6
41.1
36.3
38.1
42.1
43.3
41.6
36.9
37.1
41.6
42.6
41.0
36.5
36.9
41.5
42.5
40.2
36.7
37.1
41.6
42.6
40.7
36.8
37.0
41.6
43.9
40.4
36.3
37.2
41.5
43.6
40.8
37.3
37.1
41.7
43.1
41.0
37.5
TRANSPORTATION AND PUBLIC UTILITIES . .
39.9
39.6
39.5
39.9
39.7
39.7
39.8
39.7
40.0
39.4
39.5
39.4
39.3
39.3
39.5
WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE
32.6
32.2
32.3
32.6
32.7
32.2
32.1
32.1
32.5
31.7
31.7
31.9
32.1
32.0
32.3
WHOLESALE TRADE..........................................
38.8
38.5
38.2
38.2
38.4
38.5
38.7
38.5
38.9
38.5
38.3
38.5
38.5
38.5
38.5
RETAIL TRADE..................................................
30.6
30.2
30.4
30.8
30.9
30.2
30.0
30.0
30.5
29.5
29.6
29.8
30.0
30.0
30.4
FINANCE, INSURANCE, AND REAL
ESTATE ..........................................................
36.2
36.2
36.4
36.2
36.3
36.1
36.3
36.3
36.3
36.4
36.4
36.4
36.3
36.2
36.1
SERVICES..........................................................
32.7
32.6
32.8
33.1
33.1
32.6
32.6
32.6
32.6
32.5
32.6
32.6
32.6
32.5
32.7
2.8
2.8
2.6
note: In accordance with usual practice, BLS has revised establishment survey data to reflect a
new benchmark and updated seasonal adjustment factors. Because of these revisions,
Digitized for
82 FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
2.6
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.6
2.6
establishment data in this table may differ from data published earlier. See technical note, page 76.
16.
Weekly hours, by industry division and major manufacturing group, seasonally adjusted
[G r o s s a v e r a g e s , p r o d u c tio n o r n o n s u p e r v is o r y w o r k e r s o n p r iv a te n o n a g r ic u ltu r a l p a y r o lls ]
1981
1980
Industry division and group
June
July
Aug.
Sept
Oct
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May"
Junep
TOTAL PRIVATE ..............................................
35.2
35.1
35.2
35.3
35.3
35.3
35.3
35.3
35.2
35.3
35.4
35.4
35.3
MINING ..................................................................
43.2
42.0
43.2
43.5
43.6
43.6
44.1
43.6
42.8
42.3
43.6
43.7
43.0
CONSTRUCTION ....................................................
37.9
37.7
37.3
38.0
37.9
36.8
37.2
36.4
35.0
37.2
36.9
36.8
37.6
MANUFACTURING..................................................
Overtime hours............................................
39.3
2.5
39.2
2.5
39.5
2.7
39.6
2.7
39.7
39.8
3.0
39.9
3.0
40.1
3.0
39.8
39.9
40.2
2.9
40.3
3.1
40.1
3.0
Durable goods
Overtime hours............................................
39.7
2.4
39.5
2.4
40.0
2.7
40.1
2.7
40.1
40.4
3.0
40.4
3.1
40.6
3.0
40.1
40.4
2.8
40.8
3.0
40.8
3.2
40.5
3.0
Lumber and wood products ................................
Furniture and fixtures..........................................
Stone, clay, and glass products ..........................
Primary metal industries......................................
Fabricated metal products ..................................
37.9
37.2
40.5
39.0
40.0
38.2
36.8
40.4
38.9
39.8
38.8
37.6
40.5
39.4
40.2
38.7
38.1
40.8
39.7
40.4
38.6
38.0
40.8
40.1
40.4
39.1
38.0
40.9
40.8
40.5
39.3
38.4
41.0
41.2
40.4
39.8
38.5
41.3
41.1
40.5
39.1
38.6
40.6
40.7
40.2
39.1
38.6
40.7
41.0
40.4
39.6
38.8
41.2
41.2
40.9
39.8
39.0
41.0
41.0
40.9
38.9
39.0
40.5
40.9
40.6
Machinery, except electrical................................
Electric and electronic equipment........................
Transportation equipment....................................
Instruments and related products ........................
Miscellaneous manufacturing ..............................
40.7
39.4
40.0
40.5
38.3
40.6
39.1
40.0
40.2
38.4
40.8
39.6
40.8
40.3
38.6
40.9
39.6
40.7
40.2
38.8
40.8
39.8
40.7
40.3
38.6
41.0
39.9
41.2
40.4
38.6
40.9
40.0
41.0
40.4
38.9
41.1
40.1
41.3
40.6
38.8
40.8
39.6
40.5
40.5
38.6
40.9
40.0
40.9
40.5
38.7
41.3
40.2
42.0
40.1
38.9
41.4
40.4
41.8
40.4
39.1
41.3
40.1
41.4.
40.3
39.2
Nondurable goods
Overtime hours............................................
38.7
38.6
2.7
38.9
38.9
39.0
2.8
39.1
2.9
39.2
2.9
39.5
3.0
39.2
2.9
39.2
39.3
2.9
39.6
3.1
39.4
3.0
Food and kindred products..................................
Tobacco manufactures ......................................
Textile mill products............................................
Apparel and other textile products ......................
Paper and allied products ..................................
39.6
38.4
39.4
35.3
41.7
39.7
36.6
39.1
35.2
41.7
39.8
36.9
39.5
35.2
42.0
39.7
38.2
39.8
35.2
42.2
39.6
40.0
39.8
35.4
42.2
39.8
40.1
39.9
35.2
42.4
39.7
38.1
40.1
35.5
42.8
40.3
38.6
40.0
36.1
42.6
39.9
38.5
40.0
35.6
42.4
39.7
37.2
39.9
35.7
42.4
40.1
37.2
39.8
35.5
42.6
39.9
38.6
40.6
36.1
42.9
39.7
36.8
40.2
36.0
42.6
Printing and publishing........................................
Chemicals and allied products ............................
Petroleum and coal products ..............................
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products ........
Leather and leather products..............................
36.9
41.3
42.2
39.4
36.7
37.0
41.0
42.1
39.1
36.2
37.0
41.2
42.1
40.2
36.6
36.9
41.4
42.4
40.2
36.4
37.1
41.5
42.8
40.5
36.7
36.8
41.6
42.9
40.8
36.3
37.4
41.6
43.2
40.8
36.6
37.5
41.6
43.8
40.9
36.8
37.3
41.6
43.8
40.3
37.0
37.1
41.5
43.5
40.5
37.1
37.3
41.5
44.1
40.7
36.6
37.5
41.6
43.8
41.2
37.0
37.3
41.8
43.0
41.1
36.8
TRANSPORTATION AND PUBLIC UTILITIES ..........
39.5
39.9
39.7
39.7
39.8
39.7
40.0
39.4
39.5
39.4
39.3
39.3
39.5
2.6
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
"
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE..........................
32.0
32.0
32.1
32.1
32.1
32.2
32.1
32.2
32.2
32.2
32.3
32.2
32.1
WHOLESALE TRADE ..............................................
38.1
38.1
38.3
38.5
38.5
38.5
38.6
38.8
38.6
38.6
38.6
38.5
38.4
RETAIL TRADE........................................................
30.1
30.0
30.1
30.1
30.1
30.2
30.0
30.1
30.2
30.2
30.3
30.2
30.1
FINANCE, INSURANCE, AND REAL
ESTATE ..............................................................
36.4
36.2
36.3
36.1
36.3
36.3
36.3
36.4
36.4
36.4
36.3
36.2
36.1
SERVICES ..............................................................
32.6
32.6
32.6
32.6
32.6
32.7
32.7
32.7
32.8
32.8
32.8
32.7
32.5
note: In accordance with usual practice, BLS has revised establishment survey data to reflect
a new benchmark and updated seasonal adjustment factors. Because of these revisions,
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
establishment data in this table may differ from data published earlier. See technical note, page 76.
83
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW August 1981 • Current Labor Statistics: Establishment Data
17.
Hourly earnings, by industry division and major manufacturing group
[G r o s s a v e r a g e s , p r o d u c tio n o r n o n s u p e r v is o r y w o r k e r s o n p r iv a te n o n a g r ic u ltu r a l p a y r o lls ]
Annual average
Industry division and group
1981
1980
1979
1980
June
July
Aug.
Sept
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May”
June*
TOTAL PRIVATE..........................................
$6.16
$6.66
$6.61
$6.64
$6.67
$6.79
$685
$6.92
$6.94
$7.03
$7.06
$7.10
$7.13
$7.17
$7.20
MINING..............................................................
8.49
9.17
9.15
9.07
9.16
9.31
9.36
9.49
9.57
9.77
9.86
9.85
9.70
9.71
10.00
CONSTRUCTION................................................
9.27
9.92
9.79
9.90
10.04
10.18
10.24
10.24
10.33
10.42
10.41
10.44
10.43
10.52
10.56
MANUFACTURING ............................................
6.70
7.27
7.20
7.29
7.30
7.42
7.49
7.60
7.70
7.73
7.75
7.80
7.88
7.92
7.96
Durable goods
Lumber and wood products ....................
Furniture and fixtures..............................
Stone, clay, and glass products ..............
Primary metal industries..........................
Fabricated metal products ......................
7.13
6.07
6.06
6.85
8.98
6.85
7.75
6.53
5.49
7.50
9.77
7.45
7.68
6.52
5.50
7.53
9.65
7.43
7.76
7.77
6.72
5.55
7.63
9.85
7.49
7,92
6.76
5.59
7.69
9.96
7.63
8.01
8.11
5.53
7.59
9.83
7.44
6.73
5.60
7.74
8.23
6.74
5.70
7.83
10.36
7.88
8.23
6.79
5.71
7.87
10.36
7.89
8.26
6.81
5.74
7.89
10.56
7.91
8.32
6.79
5.76
7.94
10.52
8.40
6.83
5.78
7.69
6.76
5.63
7.81
10.29
7.77
8.01
10.76
8.05
8.45
6.92
5.84
8.18
10.69
8.17
8.50
6.97
5.87
8.25
10.81
8.23
Machinery, except electrical....................
Electric and electronic equipment............
Transportation equipment........................
Instruments and related products ............
Miscellaneous manufacturing ..................
7.32
6.32
8.53
6.17
5.03
8.00
7.93
8.00
8.02
8.21
9.22
6.79
5.44
6.95
9.32
6.85
5.47
7.01
9.33
5.48
7.12
9.54
6.91
5.53
8.30
7.18
9.75
6.94
5.56
8.38
7.27
9.87
7.01
5.62
8.50
7.38
10.09
7.13
5.73
8.53
7.41
9.96
7.19
5.82
8.56
7.43
9.93
7.20
5.83
8.62
7.47
10.08
7.23
5.85
8.67
7.51
10.14
7.25
5.91
8.75
7.55
10.25
7.31
5.93
8.81
7.56
10.33
7.36
5.92
Nondurable goods......................................
Food and kindred products......................
Tobacco manufactures............................
Textile mill products................................
Apparel and other textile products ..........
Paper and allied products........................
6.01
6.56
6.27
6.67
466
4.23
7.13
6.86
6.50
6.84
6.62
6.90
4.94
4.51
7.78
5.07
4.50
7.96
6.71
6.94
7.53
5.25
4.69
8.06
6.74
6.95
7.69
5.27
4.73
8.09
6.82
7.09
7.86
5.31
4.75
8.18
6.89
7.13
7.73
5.08
4.57
7.84
6.65
6.90
7.82
5.20
4.60
7.99
5.34
4.81
8.27
6.97
7.21
8.50
5.35
4.89
8.27
6.98
7.24
8.56
5.35
4.87
8.28
7.01
7.29
8.61
5.36
4.94
8.30
7.08
7.37
8.90
5.36
4.96
8.37
7.11
7.44
9.05
5.40
4.98
8.43
7.14
7.40
9.50
5.42
4.99
8.54
6.94
7.60
9.36
5.97
4.22
7.53
8.30
10.09
6.56
4.58
7.46
8.25
7.62
8.40
6.65
4.60
7.88
8.69
10.38
6.97
4.74
7.92
8.74
11.06
7.06
4.86
7.96
8.80
11.33
7.04
4.88
8.04
8.94
11.40
7.15
4.93
8.10
10.21
7.74
8.53
10.38
6.79
4.65
7.79
8.60
10.52
6.47
4.55
7.73
8.47
10.33
6.72
4.62
8.02
10.21
7.53
8.36
10.25
6.55
4.56
8.16
8.87
8.74
8.89
8.94
9.02
9.19
9.27
9.30
9.33
9.45
9.42
9.54
9.56
9.57
5.64
5.62
5.80
5.84
5.85
5.87
5.89
5.89
Printing and publishing............................
Chemicals and allied products ................
Petroleum and coal products ..................
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products
Leather and leather products ..................
TRANSPORTATION AND PUBLIC UTILITIES
6.95
9.32
6.80
5.47
6.86
8.01
6.68
8.10
6.86
10.10
6.88
4.69
8.10
8.11
8.84
11.23
7.07
4.90
,
8.95
11.30
7.23
4.95
8.11
9.05
11.48
7.28
4.95
WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE
5.06
5.48
5.44
5.48
5.49
5.56
5.59
WHOLESALE TRADE..........................................
6.39
6.96
6.94
6.98
6.99
7.07
7.09
7.19
7.23
7.32
7.38
7.42
7.47
7.50
7.51
4.98
5.02
4.99
5.18
5.20
5.20
5.22
5.23
5.23
6.00
6.12
6.10
6.21
6.21
6.19
6.20
6.23
6.20
6.27
6.29
6.30
6.33
6.33
4.88
4.84
5.27
5.78
5.77
5.77
5.83
5.87
5.91
6.02
5.36
5.85
5.81
5.78
5.81
5.93
6.00
6.09
RETAIL TRADE..................................................
4.53
FINANCE, INSURANCE, AND REAL
ESTATE ..........................................................
SERVICES..........................................................
4.89
4.89
note: In accordance with usual practice, BLS has revised establishment survey data to reflect
a new benchmark and updated seasonal adjustment factors. Because of these revisions,
18.
4.95
establishment data in this table may differ from data published earlier. See technical note, page 76.
Hourly Earnings Index for production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls, by industry division
[ S e a s o n a lly a d ju s te d d a ta : 1 9 7 7 = 1 0 0 ]
1981
1980
June
July
Aug.
Sept
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May”
Junep
May 1981
to
June 1981
June 1980
to
June 1981
127.0
127.6
128.7
129.4
130.6
132.1
132.6
133.8
135.0
135.8
136.7
137.6
138.2
0.4
8.8
134.0
134.3
130.4
127.7
128.2
126.7
125.0
135.0
122.9
131.3
128.1
129.3
128.7
126.6
136.7
123.1
132.3
128.1
129.9
129.1
127.3
137.5
124.4
133.5
130.9
130.8
129.9
128.5
139.2
125.2
134.6
132.6
132.3
132.4
130.5
139.8
126.2
135.4
132.8
132.4
131.9
131.1
142.1
127.6
136.5
133.7
133.7
133.2
132.0
143.2
128.0
137.5
135.4
135.0
135.0
133.2
144.0
128.6
138.5
136.1
135.8
136.0
134.0
145.7
129.0
139.9
137.3
136.4
135.4
134.8
145.8
129.3
140.7
138.4
137.5
136.7
135.9
147.3
130.1
141.4
138.9
137.8
136.3
136.9
1.0
.6
129.1
126.7
127.4
127.0
125.6
.5
.4
9.9
7.5
9.5
9.6
-.3
.7
7.3
9.0
93.4
93.8
93.9
93.3
93.2
93.3
92.7
92.8
92.7
92.8
93.0
93.0
Industry
TOTAL PRIVATE (in current dollars)
Mining..........................................
Construction ................................
Manufacturing ..............................
Transportation and public utilities . . .
Wholesale and retail trade ............
Finance, insurance, and real estate .
Services ......................................
TOTAL PRIVATE (in constant dollars)
121.0
121.8
note: In accordance with usual practice, BLS has revised establishment survey data to reflect
a new benchmark and updated seasonal adjustment factors. Because of these revisions,
Digitized for
84 FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
.2
8.2
establishment data in this table may differ from data published earlier. See technical note, page 76.
19.
Weekly earnings, by industry division and major manufacturing group
[Gross averages, production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls]
Annual average
1980
1981
Industry division and group
1979
1980
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May»
Junep
$236.79
$239.69
$241.81
$244.28
$247.06
$246.75
$247 10
$249.92
$250.98
$252.38
$254.88
TOTAL PRIVATE....................................
$219.91
$235.10
$233.33
$234.39
MINING ............................................................
365.07
396.14
395.28
380.94
395.71
404.99
408.10
413.76
422.04
425.97
422.01
416.66
422.92
424.33
430.00
CONSTRUCTION ..............................................
342.99
367 04
371.04
373.23
374.49
386.84
388 10
376.83
384.28
379.29
364.35
388.37
384.87
387.14
397.06
MANUFACTURING ............................................
269.34
288.62
282.96
282.85
287.62
295.32
298.10
305.52
314.16
308.43
306.13
311.22
312.84
317.59
319.20
Durable goods
Lumber and wood products ........................
Furniture and fixtures ..................................
Stone, clay, and glass products....................
Primary metal industries..............................
Fabricated metal products ..........................
290.90
239.16
195.82
284.28
371.77
278.80
310.78
252.06
209.17
306.00
391.78
300.98
304.90
250.37
205.15
308.73
377.32
297.94
302.64
254.51
200.19
305.88
379.44
291.65
308.47
263.42
208.68
310.54
384.15
299.60
31838
265.67
214.10
316.06
397.40
309.02
322.80
263.82
215 60
319.66
402.99
311.45
330.08
264.99
216.19
323.33
419.83
317.79
341.55
267.58
225.72
325.73
430.98
327.81
332.49
263.45
217.55
317.16
425.80
318.76
329.57
262.19
219.84
312.44
429.79
316.40
336.96
264.81
223.49
322.36
432.37
325.21
338.52
267.05
220.80
331.70
443.31
323.61
343.07
274.03
224.84
336.20
437.22
332.52
345.10
274.62
228.93
337.43
443.21
334.96
Machinery except electrical..........................
Electric and electronic equipment ................
Transportation equipment............................
Instruments and related products ................
Miscellaneous manufacturing ......................
305.98
254.70
350.58
251.74
195.16
328.00
276.61
378.39
275.40
211.69
322.75
270.28
368.80
275.00
208.35
319.20
266.88
369.07
271.26
206.22
323.21
274.79
373.20
273.71
210.98
336.61
282.66
388.28
277.09
216.22
337.81
285.76
400.73
279.68
216.28
346.09
293.71
411.58
286.71
219.74
358.70
302.58
434.88
293.76
226.34
351.44
297.14
407.36
291.91
224.65
349.25
294.23
398.19
291.60
223.87
355.14
300.29
414.29
293.54
227.57
353.74
298.90
415.74
289.28
228.13
360.50
302.76
426.40
294.59
230.08
363.85
303.16
426.63
296.61
231.47
Nondurable goods..........................................
Food and kindred products..........................
Tobacco manufactures................................
Textile mill products....................................
Apparel and other textile products................
Paper and allied products............................
236.19
250.17
253.46
188.26
149.32
303.74
255.84
272.34
294.51
203.71
161.78
331.63
252.20
270.86
307.58
195.62
160.56
324.43
254.87
275.31
294.46
195.20
158.85
329.54
259.35
278.76
288.56
203.84
162.84
333.98
262.36
279.68
287.65
208.95
165.09
340.94
263.53
275.92
307.60
210.27
167.92
341.40
268.71
284.31
315.19
213.99
168.15
350.10
274.91
287.34
308.61
218.41
172.68
361.40
273.22
288.40
328.10
213.47
172.13
353.13
271.52
284.53
329.56
213.47
171.91
349.42
274.09
285.77
320.29
214.94
176.85
351.92
275.41
289.64
331.08
211.18
174.59
354.05
280.13
295.37
349.33
218.16
179.78
359.12
281.32
293.78
349.60
218.97
181.14
363.80
Printing and publishing ................................
Chemicals and allied products......................
Petroleum and coal products ......................
Rubber and miscellaneous
plastics products......................................
Leather and leather products ......................
260.25
318.44
409.97
279.36
344.45
421.76
273.78
339.90
431.88
277.10
340.25
437.68
283.46
343.56
430.86
287.56
349.81
448.32
287.93
354.00
453.61
289.79
361.20
458.67
300.23
365.85
449.45
293.83
363.58
471.16
293.72
365.20
481.53
297.54
367.74
478.40
297.48
371.90
500.46
301.32
371.43
492.68
300.88
377.39
494.79
241.79
154.03
263.06
168.09
254.27
170.17
252.83
165.98
266.00
168.36
270.82
167.71
276.35
170.19
282.77
170.25
289.95
174.91
289.46
177.39
283.01
179.10
287.75
180.32
288.86
178.96
294.98
184.64
298.48
185.63
.
325.58
351.25
345.23
354.71
354.92
358.09
365.76
368.02
372.00
367.60
373.28
371.15
374.92
375.71
378.02
WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE....................
164 96
176.46
175.71
178.65
179.52
179.03
179.44
181.04
182.65
183.86
185.13
186.62
188.43
188.48
190.25
WHOLESALE TRADE ........................................
247.93
267.96
265.11
266.64
268.42
272.20
274.38
276.82
281.25
281.82
282.65
285.67
287.60
288.75
289.14
RETAIL TRADE..................................................
138.62
147.38
147.14
150.61
151.10
149.49
14940
150.60
152.20
152.81
153.92
154.96
156.60
156.90
158.99
FINANCE, INSURANCE, AND REAL ESTATE .
190.77
209.24
210.03
208.87
211.63
211.91
214.53
218.53
217.80
222.04
226.04
225.32
225.06
225.53
223.82
SERVICES ........................................................
175.27
190.71
190.57
191.32
192.31
192.32
195.60
198.53
199.51
201.83
204.40
205.05
205.38
205.73
206.99
TRANSPORTATION AND PUBLIC UTILITIES
note: In accordance with usual practice, BLS has revised establishment survey data to reflect a
new benchmark and updated seasonal adjustment factors. Because of these revisions,
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
establishment data in this table may differ from data published earlier. See technical note, page 76.
85
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW August 1981 • Current Labor Statistics: Establishment Data
20.
Gross and spendable weekly earnings, in current and 1977 dollars, 1961 to date
[Averages for production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls]
Manufacturing workers
Private nonagricultural workers
Spendable average weekly earnings
Spendable average weekly earnings
weekly earnings
Worker with no
dependents
Married worker with
3 dependents
weekly earnings
Worker with no
dependents
Married worker with
3 dependents
Current
dollars
1977
dollars
Current
dollars
1977
dollars
Current
dollars
1977
dollars
Current
dollars
1977
dollars
Current
dollars
1977
dollars
Current
dollars
1977
dollars
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
$82.60
85.91
88.46
91.33
95.45
$167.21
172,16
175.17
178.38
183.21
$67.08
69.56
71.05
75.04
79.32
$135.79
139.40
140.69
146.56
152.25
$74.48
76.99
78.56
82.57
86.63
$150.77
154.29
155.56
161.27
166.28
$92.34
96.56
99.23
102.97
107.53
$186.92
193.51
196.50
206.39
$74.60
77.86
79.51
84.40
89.08
$151.01
156.03
157.45
164.84
170.98
$82.18
85.53
87.25
92.18
96.78
$166.36
171.40
172.77
180.04
185.76
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
98.82
101.84
107.73
114.61
119.83
184.37
184.83
187.68
189.44
186.94
81.29
83.38
86.71
90.96
96.21
151.66
151.32
151.06
150.35
150.09
90.86
95.28
99.99
104.90
165.41
164.90
165.99
165.27
163.65
112.19
114.49
122.51
129.51
133.33
209.31
207.79
312,43
214.07
208.00
91.45
92.97
97.70
101.90
106.32
170.62
168.73
170.21
168.43
165.87
99.33
100.93
106.75
111.44
115.58
185.32
183.18
185.98
184.20
180.31
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
127.31
136.90
145.39
154.76
163.53
190.58
198.41
198.35
190.12
184.16
103.80
112.19
117.51
124.37
132.49
155 39
162.59
160.31
152.79
149.20
127.38
134.61
145.65
168.31
176.35
173.78
165.37
164.02
142.44
154.71
166.46
176.80
190.79
213.23
224.22
227.09
217.20
214.85
114.97
125.34
132.57
140.19
151.61
172.11
181.65
180.86
172.22
170.73
124.24
135.57
143.50
151.56
166.29
185.99
196.48
195.77
186.19
187.26
1976 ..........................................
1977 ..........................................
1978 ..........................................
1979' ........................................
1980' ........................................
175.45
189.00
203.70
219.91
235.10
186.85
189.00
189.31
183.41
172.74
143.30
155.19
165.39
178.00
188.82
152.61
155.19
153.71
148.46
138.74
155.87
169.93
180.71
194.82
206.06
166.00
169.93
167.95
162.49
151.65
209.32
228.90
249.27
269.34
288.62
222.92
228.90
231.66
224.64
212.06
167.83
183.80
197.40
212.70
225.79
178.73
183.80
183.46
177.40
165.90
181.32
200.06
214.87
232.38
247.01
193.10
200.06
199.69
193.81
181.49
1980': June................................
233.33
170.94
187.59
137.43
205.06
150.23
282.96
207.30
221.94
162.59
242.71
177.81
July ................................
August ............................
September ......................
234.39
236.79
239.69
171.59
172.21
172.69
188.33
190.01
192.03
137.87
138.19
138.35
205.86
207.68
209.88
150.70
151.04
151.21
282.85
287.62
295.32
207.06
209.18
212.77
221.87
225.11
230.33
162.42
163.72
165.94
242.63
246.25
252.09
177.62
179.09
181.62
October ..........................
November........................
December........................
241.81
244.28
247.06
172.72
172.88
173.38
193.51
195.24
197.18
138.22
138.17
138.37
211.49
213.37
215.47
151.06
151.00
151.21
298.10
305.52
314.16
212.93
216.22
220.46
232.22
237.26
242.86
165.87
167.91
170.43
254.20
259.83
266.14
181.57
183.89
186.76
1981': January ..........................
February..........................
March..............................
A p ril................................
M ay»..............................
Junep ..............................
246.75
247.10
249.92
250.98
252.38
254.88
171.83
170.18
171.06
170.73
170.18
195.68
195.92
197.88
198.61
199.59
201.32
136.27
134.93
135.44
135.11
134.59
213.96
214.22
216.34
217.14
218.20
220.08
149.00
147.53
148.08
147.71
147.13
308.43
306.13
311.22
312.84
317.59
319.20
214.78
210.83
213.02
212.82
214.15
237.60
236.08
239.37
240.39
243.40
244.42
165.46
162.59
163.84
163.53
164.13
260.36
258.70
262.38
263.55
266.99
268.15
181.31
178.17
179.59
179.29
180.03
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
88.66
112.43
121.68
1Not available.
The earnings expressed in 1977 dollars have been adjusted for changes in price level
as measured by the Bureau’s Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers.
These series are described in “The Spendable Earnings Series: A Technical Note on its Calnote:
86
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
201.11
culation," Employment and Earnings and Monthly Report on the Labor Force, February 1969,
pp. 6-13. See also “ Spendable Earnings Formulas, 1979-81,” Employment and Earnings, March
1981, pp. 10-11.
r=revised.
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE DATA
n e m p l o y m e n t
in s u r a n c e
d a t a
are com piled m onthly by
the E m ploym ent and Training A dm inistration of the U.S. D e
partm ent of Labor from records of State and Federal unemplbym ent insurance claim s filed and benefits paid. R ailroad
unem ploym ent insurance data are prepared by the U.S. R ail
road Retirem ent Board.
ployed. Persons not covered by unemployment insurance (about onethird of the labor force) and those who have exhausted or not yet
earned benefit rights are excluded from the scope of the survey. Ini
tial claims are notices filed by persons in unemployment insurance
programs to indicate they are out of work and wish to begin receiv
ing compensation. A claimant who continued to be unemployed a
full week is then counted in the insured unemployment figure. The
rate of insured unemployment expresses the number of insured unem
ployed as a percent of the average insured employment in a
12-month period.
U
Definitions
Data for all programs represent an unduplicated count of insured
unemployment under State programs, Unemployment Compensation
for Ex-Servicemen, and Unemployment Compensation for Federal
Employees, and the Railroad Insurance Act.
An application for benefits is filed by a railroad worker at the be
ginning of his first period of unemployment in a benefit year; no ap
plication is required for subsequent periods in the same year. Num
ber of payments are payments made in 14-day registration periods.
The average amount of benefit payment is an average for all com
pensable periods, not adjusted for recovery of overpayments or set
tlement of underpayments. However, total benefits paid have been
adjusted.
Under both State and Federal unemployment insurance programs
for civilian employees, insured workers must report the completion of
at least 1 week of unemployment before they are defined as unem-
21.
Unemployment insurance and employment service operations
[A ll Ite m s e x c e p t a v e r a g e b e n e fits a m o u n ts a r e In th o u s a n d s ]
1980
1981
Item
May
All programs:
Insured unemployment ......................
State unemployment insurance
program:1
Initial claims2 ....................................
Insured unemployment (average
weekly volume)..............................
Rate of insured unemployment ..........
Weeks of unemployment
compensated ................................
Average weekly benefit amount
for total unemployment ..................
Total benefits paid ............................
Unemployment compensation for exservicemen: 3
Initial claims1 ....................................
Insured unemployment (average
weekly volume)..............................
Weeks of unemployment
compensated ................................
Total benefits paid ............................
Unemployment compensation for
Federal civilian employees:4
Initial claims......................................
Insured unemployment (average
weekly volume)..............................
Weeks of unemployment
compensated ................................
Total benefits paid ............................
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
3,680
3,790
4,140
3,911
3,961
3,661
3,726
4,085
4,621
4,264
3,948
3,453
2,248
2,319
2,737
1,829
1,702
1,808
1,673
2,544
2,653
1,806
1,684
1,647
3,343
3.9
3,455
4.0
3,692
4.3
3,408
3.9
3,087
3.6
2,903
3.3
2,983
3.4
3,321
3.8
3,844
4.4
3,669
4.2
3,382
3.9
2,988
3.4
12,302
12,441
14,398
12,786
11,689
11,443
9,524
12,603
14,228
12,882
13,504
11,775
$99.55
$99.88
$98.75
$99.68
$99.86
$92.32
$1,196,836 $1,213,595 $1,397,508 $1,249,782 $1,144,885 $1,125,416
$102.34
$101.96
$101.43
$101.89
$1,055,065 $1,242,957 $1,416,513 $1,313,507
23
27
23
25
23
17
21
19
17
18
16
50
45
58
55
56
56
54
55
57
54
51
46
331
$33,342
244
$24,560
245
$24,804
255
$25,880
216
$21,024
261
$27,015
257
$26,646
221
$22,517
234
$24,668
214
$23,048
220
12
22
88
$8,280
122
$11,761
2,693
3.1
$105.63
$105.96
$1,393,612 $1,226,815
20
$22,025
3,112
14
17
15
19
21
14
18
22
13
12
12
20
26
25
29
32
35
37
41
40
36
31
50
$4,665
124
$11,296
93
$8,707
105
$9,699
130
$11,917
118
$11,365
150
$14,184
160
$15,432
148
$14,573
156
$15,561
135
$13,701
24
44
13
10
9
7
11
13
5
5
43
27
Railroad unemployment insurance:
Applications ......................................
Insured unemployment (average
weekly volume)..............................
Number of payments ........................
Average amount of benefit
payment........................................
Total benefits paid ............................
23
54
27
55
44
39
40
89
38
84
38
70
39
83
53
118
50
104
44
115
41
94
35
79
$193.44
$9,953
$199.06
$10,140
$207.08
$13,320
$211.87
$17,336
$211.99
$18,809
$208.49
$17,789
$209 00
$14,269
$212.27
$18,046
$209.38
$20,303
$214.56
$22,049
$214.93
$23,233
$201.12
$19,239
$199.43
$15,428
Employment service:5
New applications and renewals ..........
Nonfarm placements..........................
11,446
2,413
12,864
2,730
14,249
3,105
15,431
3,445
16,632
3,827
6
66
86
’ Initial claims and State insured unemployment include data under the program for Puerto Rican
sugarcane workers.
Includes interstate claims for the Virgin Islands. Excludes transition claims under State programs.
Excludes data on claims and payments made jointly with other programs.
2
3
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
4,476
871
6
6
8,659
1,574
4
5
Includes the Virgin islands. Excludes data on claims and payments made jointly with State pro
grams.
Cumulative total for fiscal year (October 1-September 30). Data computed quarterly.
NOTE: Data for Puerto Rico included. Dashes indicate data not available.
87
PRICE DATA
P r ic e
d a t a
are gathered by the Bureau of Labor Statistics
from retail and primary m arkets in the U nited States. Price
indexes are given in relation to a base period (1967 = 100,
unless otherwise noted).
Definitions
The Consumer Price Index is a monthly statistical measure of the
average change in prices in a fixed market basket of goods and ser
vices. Effective with the January 1978 index, the Bureau of Labor Sta
tistics began publishing CPI’s for two groups of the population. One
index, a new CPI for All Urban Consumers, covers 80 percent of the
total noninstitutional population; and the other index, a revised CPI
for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, covers about half the
new index population. The All Urban Consumers index includes, in
addition to wage earners and clerical workers, professional, manageri
al, and technical workers, the self-employed, short-term workers, the
unemployed, retirees, and others not in the labor force.
The CPI is based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, fuel, drugs,
transportation fares, doctor’s and dentist’s fees, and other goods and
services that people buy for day-to-day living. The quantity and quali
ty of these items is kept essentially unchanged between major revi
sions so that only price changes will be measured. Prices are collected
from over 18,000 tenants, 24,000 retail establishments, and 18,000
housing units for property taxes in 85 urban areas across the country.
All taxes directly associated with the purchase and use of items are
included in the index. Because the CPI’s are based on the expendi
tures of two population groups in 1972-73, they may not accurately
reflect the experience of individual families and single persons with
different buying habits.
Though the CPI is often called the “Cost-of-Living Index,” it mea
sures only price change, which is just one of several important factors
affecting living costs. Area indexes do not measure differences in the
level of prices among cities. They only measure the average change in
prices for each area since the base period.
Producer Price Indexes measure average changes in prices received
in primary markets of the United States by producers of commodities
in all stages of processing. The sample used for calculating these in
dexes contains about 2,800 commodities and about 10,000 quotations
per month selected to represent the movement of prices of all com
modities produced in the manufacturing, agriculture, forestry, fishing,
mining, gas and electricity, and public utilities sectors. The universe
includes all commodities produced or imported for sale in commercial
transactions in primary markets in the United States.
Producer Price Indexes can be organized by stage of processing or
by commodity. The stage of processing structure organizes products
by degree of fabrication (that is, finished goods, intermediate or
semifinished goods, and crude materials). The commodity structure
organizes products by similarity of end-use or material composition.
To the extent possible, prices used in calculating Producer Price In
dexes apply to the first significant commercial transaction in the Unit
ed States, from the production or central marketing point. Price data
are generally collected monthly, primarily by mail questionnaire.
Digitized for
88 FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Most prices are obtained directly from producing companies on a vol
untary and confidential basis. Prices generally are reported for the
Tuesday of the week containing the 13th day of the month.
In calculating Producer Price Indexes, price changes for the vari
ous commodities are averaged together with implicit quantity weights
representing their importance in the total net selling value of all com
modities as of 1972. The detailed data are aggregated to obtain in
dexes for stage of processing groupings, commodity groupings, dura
bility of product groupings, and a number of special composite
groupings.
Price indexes for the output of selected SIC industries measure av
erage price changes in commodities produced by particular industries,
as defined in the Standard Industrial Classification Manual 1972
(Washington, U.S. Office of Management and Budget, 1972). These
indexes are derived from several price series, combined to match the
economic activity of the specified industry and weighted by the value
of shipments in the industry. They use data from comprehensive in
dustrial censuses conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census and the
U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Notes on the data
Beginning with the May 1978 issue of the Review, regional CPI’s
cross classified by population size, were introduced. These indexes will
enable users in local areas for which an index is not published to get a
better approximation of the CPI for their area by using the appropri
ate population size class measure for their region. The cross-classified
indexes will be published bimonthly. (See table 24.)
For further details about the new and the revised indexes and a
comparison of various aspects of these indexes with the old unrevised
CPI, see Facts About the Revised Consumer Price Index, a pamphlet in
the Consumer Price Index Revision 1978 series. See also The
Consumer Price Index: Concepts and Content Over the Years, Report
517, revised edition (Bureau of Labor Statistics, May 1978).
For interarea comparisons of living costs at three hypothetical stand
ards of living, see the family budget data published in the Handbook
of Labor Statistics, 1977, Bulletin 1966 (Bureau of Labor Statistics,
1977), tables 122-133. Additional data and analysis on price changes
are provided in the CPI Detailed Report and Producer Prices and Price
Indexes, both monthly publications of the Bureau.
As of January 1976, the Wholesale Price Index (as it was then
called) incorporated a revised weighting structure reflecting 1972 val
ues of shipments. From January 1967 through December 1975, 1963
values of shipments were used as weights.
For a discussion of the general method of computing consumer,
producer, and industry price indexes, see BLS Handbook o f Methods
for Surveys and Studies, Bulletin 1910 (Bureau of Labor Statistics,
1976), chapters 13-15. See also John F. Early, “Improving the mea
surement of producer price change,” Monthly Labor Review, April
1978, pp. 7-15. For industry prices, see also Bennett R. Moss, “In
dustry and Sector Price Indexes,” Monthly Labor Review, August
1965, pp. 974-82.
22.
Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, annual averages and changes, 1967-80
[1967 = 100]
Food and
beverages
All items
Year
Index
Percent
change
Index
Apparel and
upkeep
Housing
Percent
change
100.0
Percent
change
Index
1967
1968
1969
1970
..................
..................
..................
..................
100.0
104.2
109.8
116.3
4.2
5.4
5.9
103.6
108.8
114.7
3.6
5.0
5.4
104.0
110.4
118.2
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
121.3
125.3
133.1
147.7
161.2
4.3
3.3
6.2
11.0
9.1
118.3
123.2
139.5
158.7
172.1
3.1
4.1
13.2
13 8
8.4
123.4
128.1
133.7
148.8
164.5
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
170.5
181.5
195.3
217.7
247.0
5.8
6.5
7.6
11.5
13.5
177.4
188.0
206.2
228.7
248.7
3.1
174.6
186.5
9.7
10.9
8.7
Percent
change
Index
100.0
100.0
6.0
Transportation
4.0
6.2
7.1
4.4
3.8
4.4
11.3
202.6
10.6
6.1
6.8
8.6
227.5
263.2
12.3
15.7
Index
Percent
change
100.0
100.0
105.4
111.5
116.1
119.8
122.3
126.8
136.2
142.3
6.1
Percent
change
Index
105.2
110.4
116.8
5.2
4.9
5.8
5.3
2.9
7.5
8.9
122.4
127.5
132.5
142.0
153.9
4.8
4.2
3.9
7.2
8.4
5.0
4.9
5.1
6.5
8.5
162.7
172.2
183.2
196.3
213.6
5.7
5.8
6.4
7.2
3.2
3.9
5.1
106.1
113.4
3.2
118.6
119.9
123.8
137.7
150.6
5.2
6.5
3.2
3.9
9.3
12.0
122.9
126.5
130.0
139.8
152.2
2.8
9.4
128.4
132.5
137.7
150.5
168.6
9.9
7.1
4.9
14.5
17.7
184.7
202.4
219.4
240.1
267.2
9.5
9.6
8.4
9.4
11.3
159.8
167.7
176.2
187.6
203.7
3.7
7.4
4.5
3.7
4.5
3.4
4.3
165.5
177.2
185.8
6.6
212.8
250.5
1.1
3.3
11.2
6.9
6.3
Percent
change
5.7
5.0
5.1
103.2
107.2
112.7
120.6
Index
100.0
100.0
105.7
111.0
5.4
5.8
4.1
2.1
147.6
154.2
159.5
166.4
177.4
Percent
change
Index
Other goods
and services
Entertainment
Medical care
116.7
8.8
23. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers and revised CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers,
U.S. city average— general summary and groups, subgroups, and selected items
[1967=100 unless otherwise specified]
Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (revised)
All Urban Consumers
General summary
1980
1981
1980
1981
May
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
May
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
All items......................................................................................
244.9
258.4
260.5
263.2
265.1
266.8
269.0
245.1
258.7
260.7
263.5
265.2
266.8
269.1
Food and beverages ....................................................................
Housing.........................................................................................
Apparel and upkeep......................................................................
Transportation ..............................................................................
Medical care ................................................................................
Entertainment ..............................................................................
Other goods and services..............................................................
244.1
261.7
177.5
249.0
263.4
204.0
259.3
279.9
183.9
261.1
275.8
263.7
280.9
182.0
270.9
282.6
216.7
227.4
265.0
282.6
185.1
273.5
284.7
218.2
228.7
265.7
284.8
186.4
275.3
287.0
219.2
229.9
265.4
288.5
186.4
277.8
289.0
220.3
232.2
244.7
261.7
176.8
249.9
264.9
202.4
260.5
277.1
182.9
261.9
277.6
262.1
279.1
180.8
265.7
281.4
224.6
261.4
279.1
181.1
264.7
279.5
214.4
226.2
210.6
223.0
224.4
264.3
280.7
181.8
272.1
284.4
215.0
225.6
265.5
282.2
184.3
274.4
287.0
216.1
226.8
266.1
284.3
186.0
276.3
289.1
2170
227.9
265.9
288.1
186.2
278.9
290.8
217.7
230.4
Commodities................................................................................
Commodities less food and beverages ....................................
Nondurables less food and beverages..................................
Durables ............................................................................
231.4
243.8
232.9
246.8
245.4
234.3
250.2
221.1 221.0
248.3
2374
258.6
220.3
249.8
239.0
263.1
219.8
250.8
240.0
263.8
221.1
251.9
241.7
263.8
223.9
231.7
222.3
242.6
205.4
244.3
233.1
248.8
219.7
245.8
2347
252.6
219.5
248.8
237.9
261.4
218.6
250.2
239.4
265.7
217.8
'251.2
240.5
266.5
219.3
252.4
242.3
266.6
222.4
Services ......................................................................................
Rent, residential..................................................................
Household services less rent ..............................................
Transportation services........................................................
Medical care services..........................................................
Other services....................................................................
269.2
188.9
319.6
241.5
284.7
215.9
284.7
199.6
338.4
255.8
297.9
228.1
287.7
200.9
342.3
258.7
302.1
230.4
290.1
201.9
345.4
260.5
305.2
232.3
292.5
203.0
348.8
262.5
307.5
233.2
295.4
204.2
353.3
264.4
309.8
234.4
299.6
205.9
360.4
2666
311.7
235.3
269.9
188.7
322.2
241.5
286.3
216.5
285.5
199.4
341.9
254.7
300.0
228.4
288.4
2908
345.5
257.7
304.3
230.2
348.5
259.7
307.4
232.1
293.1
202.7
351.8
261.3
310.2
233.0
295.9
203.9
356.2
263.1
312.2
233.8
300.0
205.5
363.5
265.5
313.6
234.5
242.6
233.7
257.6
247.8
232.4
245.3
281.1
256.9
304.2
284.2
252.4
276.2
381.7
251.2
245.7
211.5
c 420.4
285.4
260.4
250.6
235.4
253.2
292.4
262.3
306.9
286.5
254.0
273.0
401.1
252.5
246.8
211.7
449.0
287.6
262.3
252.3
237.0
257.5
297.3
265.2
309.5
288.9
255.4
270.9
409.3
253.8
248.1
267.0
255.2
239.6
258.2
298.0
265.8
317.4
296.2
254.7
270.9
411.3
257.9
253.0
215.7
455.4
296.5
242.9
234.3
220.5
237.7
270.0
244.6
285.4
266.3
233.4
267.5
367.3
235.1
230.0
198.6
404.7
267.8
255.7
246.7
231.2
243.9
276.6
255.6
302.0
281.9
251.1
278.4
373.7
249.3
243.6
405.9
283.4
257.9
248.5
232.7
247.5
283.0
258.3
305.2
284.7
252.1
277.9
385.2
250.6
244.8
210.4
421.3
286.2
260.8
251.4
236.0
255.9
294.7
263.8
307.9
2870
253.9
275.1
405.4
251.8
245.8
210.5
450.1
288.4
262.6
252.9
237.4
259.9
299.5
266.6
310.4
289.2
254.9
273.9
413.7
252.9
246.9
210.7
460.9
290.6
264.4
254.2
238.6
260.7
299.9
267.3
313.5
292.0
255.0
270.7
414.0
254.7
248.9
460.0
289.9
264.2
253.6
238.0
258.1
297.7
265.9
312.8
291.8
255.3
267.7
409.8
255.6
250.1
213.5
458.4
292.7
459.3
293.2
267.2
255.8
240.3
260.9
300.1
267.2
318.2
296.4
254.2
273.8
414.9
257.0
251.9
214.6
456.0
297.0
$0,384
$0,380
$0,377
$0,375
$0,372
$0,408
$0,387
$0,384
$0,380
$0,377
$0,375
$0,372
211.2
222.0
240.3
207.1
212.0
210.1
212.2
200.6 201.6
Special indexes:
All items less food ........................................................................
All items less mortgage interest costs ............................................
Commodities less fo o d ..................................................................
Nondurables less food ..................................................................
Nondurables less food and apparel................................................
Nondurables ................................................................................
Services less rent ........................................................................
Services less medical ca re ............................................................
Domestically produced farm foods ................................................
Selected beef cuts........................................................................
Energy .........................................................................................
All items less energy ....................................................................
All items less food and energy ............................................
Commodities less food and energy....................................
Energy commodities ........................................................
Services less energy........................................................
235.5
267.9
243.2
284,4
265.7
233.6
265.6
363.2
235.7
231.0
199.9
403.0
267.0
255.5
245.9
231.0
242.0
274.7
254.1
300.7
281.2
251.1
276.2
370.4
249.7
244.5
211.7
404.9
282.4
Purchasing power of the consumer dollar, 1967 = $1 ....................
$0,408
$0,387
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
220.2
212.2
210.6
212.2
89
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW August 1981 • Current Labor Statistics: Consumer Prices
23.
Continued— Consumer Price Index— U.S. city average
[1967=100 unless otherwise specified]
Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (revised)
All Urban Consumers
General summary
FOOD AND BEVERAGES
1980
1981
1980
1981
May
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
May
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
244.1
259.3
261.4
263.7
265.0
265.7
265.4
244.7
260.5
262.1
264.3
265.5
266.1
265.9
Food....................................................................................................
250.4
266.4
268.6
270.8
272.2
272.9
272.5
251.0
267.6
269.2
271.4
272.6
273.2
272.9
Food at home.........................................................................................
Cereals and bakery products ..........................................................
Cereals and cereal products (12/77 = 100)..............................
Flour and prepared flour mixes (12/77 = 100)....................
Cereal (12/77 - 100)........................................................
Rice, pasta, and commeal (12/77 = 100) ..........................
Bakery products (12/77 = 100)................................................
White bread ......................................................................
Other breads (12/77 = 100)..............................................
Fresh biscuits, rolls, and muffins (12/77 = 100) ..................
Fresh cakes and cupcakes (12/77 = 100)..........................
Cookies (12/77 = 100)......................................................
Crackers and bread and cracker products (12/77 = 100) . . .
Fresh sweetrolls, coffeecake, and donuts (12/77 = 100) . . .
Frozen and refrigerated bakery products
and fresh pies, tarts, and turnovers (12/77 = 100) ..........
246.5
244.5
131.5
129.0
131.5
133.8
128.7
216.7
128.3
127.8
127.4
126.1
263.9
258.5
140.8
133.5
143.8
143.1
135.4
226.3
134.1
135.4
135.3
134.9
126.9
135.9
265.6
262.9
143.2
135.9
145.8
146.0
137.7
229.5
137.1
137.6
138.5
138.0
127.0
138.0
267.3
265.3
144.5
137.5
146.5
147.9
139.0
231.4
137.3
138.9
139.5
139.0
128.6
140.4
268.6
266.7
145.2
138.5
146.9
148.9
139.7
232.9
137.9
140.1
140.0
139.7
129.1
141.1
268.7
268.3
145.4
137.1
147.8
149.5
140.8
233.2
139.5
140.4
142.1
141.2
130.9
141.7
267.7
270.0
146.8
138.8
149.8
149.8
141.5
235.1
139.3
141.5
142.3
141.8
128.2
142.8
246.1
244.4
132.4
129.9
132.0
135.2
128.3
216.0
130.6
126.4
126.5
126.8
123.0
129.2
263.9
259.5
142.3
134.4
145.0
145.8
135.7
226.6
137.9
135.1
134.2
136.1
126.5
136.4
265.1
263.0
144.5
136.8
147.2
147.8
137.5
229.4
139.4
136.4
136.8
139.0
126.8
138.5
267.0
265.0
145.5
137.9
148.0
149.3
138.5
230.9
140.1
136.9
138.1
139.8
128.6
140.0
268.1
266.5
146.5
139.4
148.5
150.5
139.2
231.2
140.3
138.4
139.5
140.6
129.6
140.7
268.2
268.0
146.9
139.2
148.9
151.4
140.1
232.1
141.2
138.7
140.8
141.8
131.1
141.7
267.2
269.4
148.4
140.3
151.3
152.0
140.6
233.2
141.7
139.6
141.2
142.1
128.9
142.5
131.0
137.5
139.7
141.4
141.9
144.0
147.0
126.0
134.0
135.2
136.3
137.6
139.0
140.1
Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs ..........................................................
Meats, poultry, and fish ............................................................
Meats ..............................................................................
Beef and veal ................................................................
Ground beef other than canned....................................
Chuck roast................................................................
Round roast................................................................
Round steak ..............................................................
Sirloin steak................................................................
Other beef and veal (12/77 - 100) ............................
Pork..............................................................................
Bacor ........................................................................
Chops........................................................................
Ham other than canned (12/77 = 100)........................
Sajsage ....................................................................
Canned ham ..............................................................
Other pork (12/77 = 100) ..........................................
Other meats ..................................................................
Frankfurters................................................................
Bologna, liverwurst, and salami (12/77 - 100) ............
Other lunchmeats (12/77 - 100) ................................
Lamb and organ meats (12/77 = 100) ........................
Poultry..............................................................................
Fresh whole chicken....................................................
Fresh and frozen chicken parts (12/77 = 100) ............
Other poultry (12/77 = 100) ......................................
Fish and sea'ooo ..............................................................
Canned fish and seafood (12/77 = 100)......................
Fresh and frozen fish and seafood (12/77 = 100) ........
Eggs .......................................................................................
231.5
238.2
239.2
264.8
269.4
273.0
243.4
250.6
256.2
152.4
191.8
177.4
182.4
87.4
250.2
255.7
259.9
260.0
275.3
276.1
288.5
245.7
260.2
267.6
160.4
229.1
231.9
2087
107.8
285.6
238.4
127.6
262.8
264.0
149.1
129.9
146.6
202.7
206.9
131.6
126.6
346.9
136.4
129.6
206.6
255.1
260.6
259.7
275.3
276.3
285.3
250.0
262.4
264.9
160.3
228.2
228.1
250.5
256.2
254.4
270.3
269.7
284.1
243.9
256.1
259.8
157.8
255.0
259.2
259.3
276.8
281.0
296.0
246.6
257.6
269.7
159.2
228.8
234.1
206.8
105.7
287.2
242.6
127.4
259.4
263.4
145.2
127.7
148.5
132.3
126.2
343.1
133.7
128.8
206.6
288.5
243.3
127.9
260.4
262.6
148.0
128.1
147.8
199.2
197.2
131.3
127.9
350.0
135.3
132.0
190.1
251.6
257.0
256.0
273.8
275.7
298.6
247.5
2547
263.5
156.9
223.2
225.7
207.6
98.2
282.0
240.6
125.0
259.1
261.0
146.0
128.6
146.5
201.3
201.7
131.9
127.8
349.5
135.9
131.4
187.0
206.9
96.3
282.7
237.9
124.3
256.0
257.2
144.7
126.4
146.0
203.1
131.6
127.6
358.8
138.9
135.3
180.5
230.7
237.2
238.1
266.3
270.6
280.0
245.5
250.2
257.5
152.2
191.8
177.7
180.9
85.4
253.9
213.0
106.5
235.6
234.0
129.5
117.6
138.4
173.8
168.0
112.7
117.7
323.0
124.0
122.4
148.9
247.1
252.2
250.7
269.5
269.0
291.8
247.5
251.3
262.7
154.9
216.7
282.3
238.0
125.4
260.8
259.4
149.4
129.8
144.1
203.7
207.0
131.9
128.5
355.0
138.0
133.5
188.2
247.0
253.2
252.3
270.3
264.1
280.3
246.8
256.0
271.4
159.2
217.3
212.7
203.7
97.2
277.7
230.5
122.7
253.9
247.6
143.0
126.9
145.3
194.7
190.3
127.5
128.3
353.2
139.2
131.8
170.5
254.1
259.4
259.2
276.4
279.3
295.2
249.6
255.5
266.3
159.5
228.5
232.5
104.1
287.8
241.1
127.4
262.9
262.5
151.2
130.3
145.0
202.4
202.5
132.7
128.7
358.0
137.4
135.7
190.2
247.7
253.0
251 0
267.4
264.8
281.4
242.8
252.9
261.5
156.1
217.4
209.0
209.2
95.2
277.4
230.1
123.4
255.4
253.5
143.5
127.9
143.1
1968
198.0
127.5
125.9
359.7
138.8
135.9
184.3
249.9
255.7
254.2
272.6
272.9
295.6
248.8
253.3
264.5
156.7
221.3
211.6
252.5
257.9
256.4
272.3
272.8
288 1
248.0
259.0
262.0
157.7
223.6
221.7
210.3
206.3
92.6
280.1
230.8
123.8
253.4
252.8
142.6
126.4
143.8
194.6
194.1
125.8
126.3
353.7
136.6
133.6
185.5
246.3
252.4
251.7
272.5
267.8
290.8
249.4
253.7
275.3
158.5
216.3
215.2
201.5
93.8
278.5
231.4
122.4
250.6
247.0
140.6
124.8
145.9
192.5
187.0
126.6
127.5
349.9
137.8
130.5
171.5
238.0
131.9
216.2
131.4
138.2
241.0
137.0
141.4
132.4
240.1
133.0
218.2
132.1
139.6
242.7
138.2
143.6
133.3
242.1
134.0
219.3
134.2
140.8
242.2
139.2
145.9
134.5
242.6
134.3
219.9
134.4
141.1
243.0
139.8
145.3
135.1
243.5
134.6
220.4
134.5
142.0
244.3
140.6
146.7
135.7
243.8
134.9
226.9
127.2
208.4
126.8
129.9
225.3
128.5
132.9
125.7
238.8
132.2
216.5
131.9
139.2
244.1
137.4
143.2
133.1
240.7
133.4
218.5
132.9
140.1
246.5
138.3
144.3
132.9
242.5
134.1
219.3
134.4
141.6
246.0
139.6
146.8
135.0
242.7
134.1
219.4
134.5
141.8
246.4
140.0
146.1
136.1
243.8
134.7
135.2
142.6
247.7
140.5
147.8
136.1
243.9
134.7
220.4
134.8
142.6
247.6
140.6
147.8
136.4
255.6
262.0
251.8
218.8
244.1
299.3
128.6
271.5
297.7
255.3
206.1
156.3
257.6
263.9
245.6
237.8
272.9
127.8
281.1
326.1
234.2
247.2
157.8
267.3
278.1
256.8
217.1
256.9
284.9
135.9
298.0
350.2
220.4
312.8
163.5
278.2
293.9
265.2
227.9
264.1
287.4
141.1
320.8
363.9
225.2
367.8
177.0
281.9
296.4
271.6
231.1
266.8
287.5
147.1
319.6
378.1
226.9
375.3
170.0
276.8
284.4
276.6
235.4
266.3
274.1
154.9
291.7
384.4
252.5
158.6
245.5
254.4
263.8
277.3
244.5
237.6
140.9
246.0
205.6
288.6
228.4
139.7
253.9
260.2
248.6
216.9
239.2
287.0
129.2
270.9
298.0
253.8
204.5
156.2
255.1
260.3
241.1
216.8
228.9
258.9
128.4
277.8
322.9
229.9
239.8
156.9
266.5
277.6
254.4
218.2
249.4
269.4
137.9
298.7
347.1
225.6
308.6
164.8
275.0
289.4
259.0
225.7
258.8
268.4
139.9
316.9
359.6
219.3
354.0
177.1
280.0
294.5
268.6
232.1
262.2
274.3
147.6
318.0
369.8
231.5
370.7
170.0
274.3
281.8
271.5
232.7
264.2
261.1
153.3
291.1
378.1
255.6
193.8
160.1
253.0
129.9
120.7
133.2
134.1
124.2
124.1
257.8
133.5
127.1
137.2
134.9
125.5
124.4
263.3
137.6
135.3
141.2
135.7
127.0
126.9
268.5
141.0
142.8
144.5
135.6
128.9
128.3
270.9
142.1
144.2
145.3
136.7
130.2
129.8
237.6
125.7
117.5
129.8
127.8
113.9
114.6
249.0
129.1
119.9
132.2
133.3
121.5
251.3
129.9
119.6
133.2
134.7
123.0
123.3
256.4
133.8
127.1
137.1
135.8
124.4
124.0
261.3
137.5
134.6
140.7
136.3
125.8
126.4
266.1
140.1
140.2
143.2
136.6
128.1
129.1
268.4
141.6
142.0
145.1
137.4
128.9
129.6
122.2
128.4
210.0
107.1
240.2
234.8
133.5
121.4
136.3
176.5
172.9
114.4
117.4
324.5
125.4
122.5
148.4
Dairy products..........................................................................
Fresh milk and cream (12/77 = 100) ................................
Fresh whole m ilk ............................................................
Other fresh milk and cream (12/77 - 100)......................
Processed dairy products (12/77 = 100)............................
Butter............................................................................
Cheese (12/77 - 100) ..................................................
Ice cream and related products (12/77 = 100)................
Other dairy products (12/77 = 100)................................
226.2
127.0
208.5
125.9
129.1
Fruits and vegetables ..............................................................
Fresh fruits and vegetables ................................................
Fresn fruits ....................................................................
Apples........................................................................
Bananas ....................................................................
Oranges ....................................................................
Other fresh fruits (12/77 = 100)..................................
Fresh vegetables............................................................
Potatoes ....................................................................
Lettuce ......................................................................
Tomatoes ..................................................................
Other fresh vegetables (12/77 = 100) ........................
246.6
255.1
264.7
276.3
249.7
243.9
140.8
246.2
Processed fruits and vegetables ........................................
Processed fruits (12/77 = 100) ......................................
Frozen fruit and fruit juices (12/77 = 100)....................
Fruit juices and other than frozen (12/77 - 100) ..........
Canned and dried fruits (12/77 - 100) ........................
Processed vegetables (12/77 - 100)..............................
Frozen vegetables (12/77 = 100)................................
239.4
125.4
118.1
129.3
127.5
115.2
114.7
Digitized for
90 FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
222.2
127.8
131.9
126.1
210.1
279.9
230.8
140.1
250.9
129.0
120.6
131.6
133.1
123.1
122.1
220.8
100.0
221.6
218.5
209.3
98.7
281.0
236.6
124.2
258.5
257.8
147.0
128.1
144.7
201.6
220.8
134.7
141.9
245.2
140.5
146.2
136.1
200.2
201.1
202.2
121.2
210.2
102.2
221.6 210.0
200.6
200.9
130.1
128.9
351.5
136.2
132.5
180.5
220.2
2!3.
Continued— Consumer Price Index— U.S. city average
[1967 = 100 unless otherwise specified]
All Urban Consumers
General summary
1980
Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (revised)
1981
1980
May
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
May
116.0
115.1
298.1
326.8
128.9
161.4
123.6
239.5
246.1
121.4
125.8
393.0
265.4
126.2
433.5
381.9
120.7
229.1
126.0
123.4
320.5
385.4
138.6
137.1
260.4
256.9
156.0
130.3
409.7
290.8
137.5
380.7
354.6
129.1
244.9
128.1
138.6
141.1
135.2
134.4
135.4
131.6
128.2
124.7
323.0
385.4
141.1
217.7
137 7
267.3
256.8
171.8
131.0
411.9
295.3
140.1
364.9
345.3
130.8
246.9
128.7
140.0
142.3
137.2
135.8
135.8
132.4
128 4
126.4
324.1
383.2
142.8
209.7
139.3
268.9
255.7
179.3
129.9
412.2
295.9
140.5
359.4
340.8
132.4
249.4
128.4
142.3
143.9
139.1
138.1
135.9
134.1
130.2
128.7
324.7
375.8
144.1
195.5
139.8
270.1
256.1
182.4
129.8
414.4
298.0
141.8
356.7
339.5
133.5
251.2
129.3
142.3
145.6
139.9
139.2.
136.7
135.1
131.5
129.8
323.7
367.1
145.1
178.4
141.4
270.7
256.1
182.7
130.4
412.3
295.7
140.6
354.4
339.1
134.0
252.9
131.5
141.6
145.9
140.0
141.1
138.6
136.6
114.2
113.3
298.0
328.0
129.0
163.3
131.3
126.1
125.4
127.9
127.6
124.6
124.5
122.9
317.1
386.3
136.9
230.3
133.7
251.9
253.6
139.6
129.1
405.2
285.2
134.8
389.7
356.5
127.5
242.4
127.2
137.6
138.6
134.2
133,5
133.8
130.3
Food away from hom e..........................................................................
Lunch (12/77 = 100) ......................................................................
Dinner (12/77=100) ......................................................................
Other meals and snacks (12/77=100)............................................
264.6
128.5
128.7
127.4
277.7
135.7
134.4
133.7
280.9
137.2
136.2
134.7
284.7
138.6
138.2
137.0
286.1
139.2
138.8
137.9
288.2
140.7
139.4
138.8
289.3
141.0
139.9
139.9
1981
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
FOOD AND BEVERAGES — Continued
Food — Continued
Food at home — Continued
Fruits and vegetables— Continued
Cut corn and canned beans except lima (12/77=100) . . .
Other canned and dried vegetables (12/77=100)............
Other foods at hom e......................................................................
Sugar and sweets....................................................................
Candy and chewing gum (12/77=100) ..............................
Sugar and artificial sweeteners (12/77=100)......................
Other sweets (12/77=100) ..............................................
Fats and oils (12/77=100) ......................................................
Margarine ........................................................................
Nondairy substitutes and peanut butter (12/77=100) ..........
Other fats, oils, and salad dressings (12/77=100) ..............
Nonalcoholic beverages ..........................................................
Cola drinks, excluding diet c o la ..........................................
Carbonated drinks, including diet cola (12/77=100)............
Roasted coffee ................................................................
Freeze dried and instant coffee..........................................
Other noncarbonated drinks (12/77=100)..........................
Other prepared foods ..............................................................
Canned and packaged soup (12/77=100)..........................
Frozen prepared foods (12/77=100)..................................
Snacks (12/77=100)........................................................
Seasonings, olives, pickles, and relish (12/77=100)............
Other condiments (12/77=100) ........................................
Miscellaneous prepared foods (12/77=100) ......................
Other canned and packaged prepared foods (12/77=100) ..
122.0
222.8
122.8 124.5
121.0 122.1
229.6
122.5
131.0
127.3
125.5
129.2
127.0
124.3
317.8
388.9
137.4
231.4
133.1
252.6
254.6
139.9
129.1
407.4
284.0
133.5
386.2
358,1
127.7
242.8
128.0
134.8
140.1
133.4
136.3
133.5
130.2
320.8
387.3
139.4
223.4
135.5
261.8
257.4
156.4
131.0
410.7
288.2
135.0
376.4
355.8
129.6
245.1
127.9
136.9
141.7
134.5
136.3
135.2
132.1
126.5
123.5
323.6
387.7
142.0
217.9
137.3
268.9
258.3
172.7
131.4
413.6
293.4
137.8
360.3
347.0
130.9
247.1
129.3
137.8
143.5
136.3
137.3
136.0
132.4
126.3
125.3
325.2
384.6
143.6
209.6
138.2
270.5
257.7
180.0
130.3
415.4
295.4
138.7
355.0
343.9
132.7
250.0
129.2
139.6
145.5
137.9
140.0
136.2
134.4
129.0
127.1
325.4
377.8
145.1
196.0
138.7
270.4
256.1
182.3
129.7
415.8
294.9
139.8
352.5
340.9
133.5
252.4
129.8
139.8
148.1
138.7
141.7
137.7
135.9
130.1
128.0
324.8
368.1
145.8
179.2
139.7
270.9
256.7
181.6
130.4
414.6
293.7
139.4
350.5
340.2
133.9
254.7
132.1
139.6
149.1
139.3
143.6
139.6
137.2
267.6
129.9
130.5
128.6
281.8
137.3
136.7
135.6
284.2
138.5
138.2
136.4
287.3
139.8
139.4
138.5
288.6
140.3
140.1
139.3
290.7
141.4
141.1
140.1
291.9
141.8
141.7
141.1
201.2
122.2
240.1
248.4
121.6
125.5
392.3
263.2
124.8
430.0
380.4
120.0
Alcoholic beverages
185.4
191.6
193.7
195.9
197.1
197.8
199.1
186.9
193.7
195.5
197.6
198.7
199.4
Alcoholic beverages at home (12/77=100)............................................
Beer and a le ..................................................................................
Whiskey ........................................................................................
Wine............................................................................
Other alcoholic beverages (12/77=100)..........................................
Alcoholic beverages away from home (12/77=100)................................
120.9
187.7
133.9
208.5
109.0
121.5
124.9
192.9
138.9
217.6
112.7
125.8
126.1
194.5
140.0
221.7
113.7
127.6
127.4
197.6
140.0
224.0
113.9
129.7
128.1
198.2
141.6
224.3
115.0
131.1
128.5
199.7
141.3
224.7
114.9
131.6
129.3
201.4
142.5
223.9
115.5
132.6
122.0
2120
126.5
192.9
140.2
227.2
108.7
121.7
112.1
126.2
127.6
194.5
141.5
229.4
113.2
127.4
128.8
197.2
142.0
231.6
113.3
129.4
129.6
198.5
142.3
233.6
114.0
129.9
130.0
199.8
142.3
233.2
114.1
130.6
HOUSING............................................................................................
261.7
276.9
279.1
280.9
282.6
284.8
288.5
261.7
277.1
279.1
280.7
282.2
284.3
301.7
187.5
135.1
131.1
201.8
143.2
234.3
114.6
132.0
288.1
Shelter..........................................................................................
280.2
298.5
300.1
300.5
301.6
303.8
308.4
281.6
300.4
301.7
302.6
304.6
309.4
Rent, residential..................................................................................
188.9
199.6
200.9
201.9
203.0
204.2
205.9
188.7
199.4
200.6 201.6
202.7
203.9
205.5
Other rental costs ................................................................................
Lodging while out of town................................................................
Tenants’ insurance (12/77=100) ....................................................
261.9
279.9
121.2
267.7
282.6
126.9
273.9
291.5
127.6
278.5
297.4
129.3
283.6
304.8
130.1
285.9
307.5
131.2
286.4
307.2
131.9
261.7
278.6
121.4
267.3
281.0
127.2
273.6
289.9
128.0
278.3
296.0
129.9
283.5
303.2
130.8
285.8
306.0
131.6
286.1
305.5
132.3
Homeownership....................................................................................
Home purchase..............................................................................
Financing, taxes, and insurance ......................................................
Property insurance ..................................................................
P'operty taxes ........................................................................
Contracted mortgage interest c o s t............................................
Mortgage interest rates......................................................
Maintenance and repairs .......................... ......................................
Maintenance and repair services ..............................................
Maintenance and repair commodities ........................................
Paint and wallpaper, supplies, tools, and
equipment (12/77=100) ................................................
Lumber, awnings, glass, and masonry (12/77=100)............
Plumbing, electrical, heating, and cooling
supplies (12/77=100)....................................................
Miscellaneous supplies and equipment (12/77=100) ..........
312.9
249.7
399.7
3449
187.6
513.6
202.4
284.9
310.1
225.8
334.2
267.2
429.4
365.8
194.5
555.5
205.1
296.8
321.5
239.1
335.8
266.2
435.2
369.8
196.0
563.5
209.0
296.8
321.3
239.7
335.8
263.0
437.1
373.1
198.5
565.0
211.9
302.8
328.7
242.4
336.8
261.1
441.1
375.6
199.0
570.9
216.0
306.1
332.6
243.9
339.3
260.7
447.1
378.5
199.9
579.8
219.5
309.3
337.0
244.4
345.0
263.0
458.3
383.7
199.8
596.9
224.0
312.9
341.2
246.3
315.4
249.8
404.9
346.4
189.3
515.6
338.6
266.4
441.3
373.2
197.9
565.9
209.4
294.1
319.8
236.7
338.2
262.7
442.6
376.6
338.8
260.2
446.4
379.9
283.4
309.1
226.5
337.5
268.0
436.0
369.0
196.4
558.7
205.5
294.2
320.3
236.2
566.5
212.3
299.9
327.7
238.6
572.0
216J
302.7
331.3
239.9
341.1
259.7
452.6
382.5
201.7
580.9
220.3
304.5
334.1
239.7
347.1
262.2
464.3
387.1
201.7
598.6
224.9
307.3
337.6
241.1
128.7
118.0
139.2
123.2
139.5
123.4
141.6
124.0
143.7
123.3
143.4
124.3
143.9
125.1
128.7
118.4
134.9
122.9
135.1
122.7
136.9
122.3
138.5
122.4
136.8
123.1
137.7
123.7
119.3
118.7
124.8
124.2
125.2
124.7
127.3
125.2
127.6
125.9
127.9
126.4
130.7
127.6
122.0
120.1
124.9
126.3
124.5
127.9
127.0
127.8
127.8
128.8
127.9
129.9
128.1
130.8
Fuel and other utilities........................................................................
275.9
289.9
296.7
304.5
308.4
310.5
314.9
276.4
290.7
297.5
305.6
309.4
311.4
315.7
Fiels ...................................................................................................
Fuel oil, coal, and bottled g as..........................................................
Fuel o il.....................................................................................
Other fuels (6/78 = 100) ........................................................
Gas (piped) and electricity ..............................................................
Electricity.................................................................................
Jtility (piped) gas ....................................................................
346.4
556.0
580.4
139 4
298.2
248.1
364.6
364.7
585.3
610.0
148.4
313.9
262.3
381.5
375.4
625.9
656.0
152.3
318.5
266.9
385.3
387.4
675.6
712.0
157.5
322.9
271.3
389.0
393.7
693.4
730.9
161.5
326.7
273.9
395.2
396.5
690.6
727.0
162.5
330.6
277.3
399.4
403.3
685.8
720.6
163.6
339.6
281.9
416.5
346.0
557.1
580.5
141.3
297.5
248.0
362.3
364.5
587.0
610.9
150.1
313.4
262.1
379.7
375.0
627.9
657.1
154.1
317.7
266.5
383.3
387.3
678.5
714.2
159.4
322.1
271.1
386.8
393.4
696.3
733.2
162.9
325.9
273.5
392.8
396.2
693.7
729.4
164.2
329.6
276.8
397.2
723.1
164.7
338.1
281.2
413.0
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
202.8
200.6 201.0
402.5
688.6
91
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW August 1981 • Current Labor Statistics: Consumer Prices
23.
Continued— Consumer Price Index— U.S. city average
[1967 = 100 unless otherwise specified]
Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (revised)
All Urban Consumers
General summary
1981
1980
1981
1980
May
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
May
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
163.1
134.0
104.3
97.3
99.4
256.5
170.6
140.3
110.5
171.9
141.1
173.6
142.4
113.5
c 174.0
142.5
113.6
175.1
143.4
114.8
176.2
144.0
115.5
170.7
140.3
110.6
101.8
172.0
141.1
111.7
101.9
173.9
142.5
113.6
101.9
174.4
142.6
113.7
101.9
175.4
143.4
114.9
101.9
267.8
271.4
274.7
277.1
278.4
282.3
163.1
133.9
104.0
97.4
99.3
257.6
100.7
268.7
272.5
276.3
279.0
280.3
176.6
144.1
115.7
101.9
101.5
284.7
Household furnishings and operations ................................................
204.2
211.6 212.6
214.9
216.9
219.2
220.1
201.9
209.0
209.7
211.7
213.7
215.9
216.8
Housefurnishings .....................................................................................
Textile housefurnishings....................................................................
Household linens (12/77 - 100) ................................................
Curtains, drapes, slipcovers, and sewing materials (12/77 = 100) .
Furniture and bedding ......................................................................
Bedroom furniture (12/77 - 100) ..............................................
Sofas (12/77 - 100) ................................................................
Living room chairs and tables (12/77 - 100) ..............................
Other furniture (12/77 - 100)....................................................
Appliances including TV and sound equipment....................................
Television and sound equipment (12/77 - 100) ..........................
Television ..........................................................................
Sound equipment (12/77 - 100) ........................................
Household appliances................................................................
Refrigerators and home freezers..........................................
Laundry equipment (12/77 - 100) ......................................
Other household appliances (12/77 - 100)..........................
Stoves, dishwashers, vacuums, and sewing
machines (12/77 - 100) ..............................................
Office machines, small electric appliances,
and air conditioners (12/77 - 100)................................
Other household equipment (12/77 - 100)........................................
Floor and window coverings, infants', laundry,
cleaning, and outdoor equipment (12/77 - 100) ......................
Clocks, lamps, and decor items (12/77 = 100) ..........................
Tableware, serving pieces, and nonelectric
kitchenware (12/77 - 100) ....................................................
Lawn equipment, power tools, and other hardware (12/77 = 100) .
173.4
107.3
114.4
119.3
191.9
125.0
111.4
178.3
193.2
117.2
123.8
197.0
129.2
115.3
113.1
127.8
142.4
107.2
105.2
178.7
191.9
114.6
124.9
196.6
128.3
114.2
113.1
128.7
143.1
107.4
105.6
180.8
195.1
118.6
124.8
199.3
131.3
114.5
115.9
129.1
143.9
107.9
105.7
182.6
199.8
123.1
126.1
184.2
198.3
122.3
125.0
204.2
133.4
117.0
117.5
134.7
145.5
108.3
105.4
172.2
186.1
113.4
119.0
190.1
121.7
112.1
168.9
168.5
124.5
115.9
170.4
170.6
126.1
116.6
171.3
170.9
126.2
117.6
108.7
163.4
166.0
118.5
113.7
180.2
201.4
124.1
127.2
198.0
129.4
114.1
116.7
128.3
143.4
106.4
104.3
109.3
169.0
172.7
124.3
114.5
129.2
115.8
119.1
131.2
144.4
106.9
104.4
168.2
168.4
123.7
115.4
178.5
196.9
121.4
124.4
195.6
127.7
113.2
115.2
126.6
142.9
106.6
104.2
109.6
167.8
172.3
130.7
114.9
117.6
130.1
144.2
107.1
104.7
167.2
168.0
123.6
114.2
176.9
193.4
117.0
124.6
193.6
125.1
113.2
114.3
125.6
142.7
106.5
104.2
109.4
167.6
171.7
121.9
114.0
182.1
202.3
124.7
127.7
165.9
166.5
123.4
113.1
176.9
196.6
122.7
122.4
194.4
125.7
114.7
115.2
124.7
142.0
106.1
103.7
109.2
166.3
170.9
121.4
181.6
202.9
125.0
128.2
133.2
115.8
116.5
130.8
144.2
108.0
105.6
183.9
200.5
123.0
127.1
203.7
134.5
116.5
116.6
133.4
145.3
108.6
106.0
169.9
174.7
125.7
114.4
170.6
175.8
125.3
115.2
110.3
112.0
114.8
115.1
115.1
115.8
117.2
111.9
113.9
115.7
114.2
115.2
113.9
115.1
114.2
119.0
114.3
124.8
113.6
125.6
115.7
127.9
116.9
129.1
117.4
130.0
118.0
130.7
111.7
117.8
111.5
123.1
112.0
113.1
125.6
113.7
126.9
115.0
127.9
115.3
129.0
117.6
117.6
124.6
121.7
125.7
122.3
128.7
124.1
130.7
125.7
131.4
125.6
132.2
124.4
113.2
114.4
118.4
118.8
118.9
119.2
120.8
121.7
123.2
121.7
124.4
120.9
125.1
120.9
124.1
114.0
130.8
118.7
131.9
118.7
134.8
119.9
120.8
135.6
137.1
121.5
138.8
122.5
121.7
117.4
127.6
122.3
128.0
123.8
131.0
123.8
132.1
125.1
134.1
125.9
136.0
127.0
Housekeeping supplies.............................................................................
Soaps and detergents ......................................................................
Other laundry and cleaning products (12/77 - 100) ..........................
Cleansing and toilet tissue, paper towels and napkins (12/77 = 100) ..
Stationery, stationery supplies, and gift wrap (12/77 - 100) ..............
Miscellaneous household products (12/77 - 100)..............................
Lawn and garden supplies (12/77 - 100)..........................................
243.6
235.0
119.8
128.6
116.3
123.0
125.2
257.7
254.0
127.6
136.1
119.5
132.5
128.4
259.5
255.6
128.8
137.3
119.9
132.6
130.0
262.8
256.2
129.3
138.4
121.4
135.9
134.0
264.2
255.3
129.7
137.9
122.3
137.3
136.6
266.9
259.4
131.0
138.4
123.1
138.1
139.1
269.0
262.6
132.8
137.8
125.1
138.4
140.6
241.2
232.1
119.5
130.8
116.0
120.9
118.9
256.0
252.3
127.6
137.6
129.5
122.5
’ 257.5
2534
129.0
139.2
120.7
129.3
122.7
260.1
254.3
129.6
139.2
122.4
132.2
126.1
261.2
253.8
130.3
138.1
123.7
133.2
128.5
263.4
256.7
130.4
138.5
124.8
134.5
131.1
265.5
260.2
131.5
137.9
126.8
135.0
132.4
Housekeeping services............................................................................
Postage ...........................................................................................
Moving, storage, freight, household laundry, and
drycleaning services (12/77 - 100) ..............................................
Appliance and furniture repair (12/77 - 100) ....................................
267.6
257.3
277.1
257.3
279.6
257.3
281.6
257.3
284.8
274.3
289.9
308.0
291.6
308.0
265.6
257.3
273.8
257.3
276.4
257.3
279.4
257.3
283.3
274.2
288.6
308.1
289.9
308.1
129.4
117.2
134.4
121.4
137.0
122.4
138.2
123.6
139.0
124.5
140.7
125.2
141.6
125.9
128.5
116.7
120.6
131.8
134.3
121.5
137.8
122.4
139.0
123.8
140.2
124.3
140.7
124.6
APPAREL AND UPKEEP........................................................................
177.5
183.9
181.1
182.0
185.1
186.4
186.4
176.8
182.9
180.8
181.8
184.3
186.0
186.2
Apparel commodities............................................................................
170.1
176.0
172.6
173.2
176.3
177.6
177.2
169.8
175.3
172.6
173.3
175.8
177.5
177.6
Apparel commodities less footwear....................................................
Men's and boys' ..............................................................................
Men's (12/77 - 100) ................................................................
Suits, sport coats, and jackets (12/77 - 100) ......................
Coats and jackets (12/77 - 100)........................................
Furnishings and special clothing (12/77 = 100) ....................
Shirts (12/77 - 100) ..........................................................
Dungarees, jeans, and trousers (12/77 - 100) ....................
Boys' (12/77 - 100) ................................................................
Coats, jackets, sweaters, and shirts (12/77 - 100) ..............
Furnishings (12/77 - 100) ..................................................
Suits, trousers, sport coats, and jackets (12/77 = 100) ........
Women's and girls' ..........................................................................
Women's (12/77 - 100)............................................................
Coats and jackets ..............................................................
Dresses ..............................................................................
Separates and sportswear (12/77 - 100)............................
Underwear, nightwear, and hosiery (12/77 - 100)................
Suits (12/77 - 100)............................................................
Girls’ (12/77 - 100)..................................................................
Coats, jackets, dresses, and suits (12/77 - 100)..................
Separates and sportswear (12/77 - 100)............................
Underwear, nightwear, hosiery, and
accessories (12/77 - 100)..............................................
166.9
168.0
105.7
172.5
174.3
109.8
103.5
99.7
123.9
119.7
103.4
113.1
108.6
118.7
114.3
157.4
104.4
161.4
163.8
101.4
116.8
91.9
106.1
101.3
106.1
168.9
171.1
107.5
99.9
95.2
123.9
115.4
103.4
169.6
171.6
107.8
100.5
95.6
125.3
114.8
102.7
172.7
175.0
173.3
176.8
168.7
171.7
107.9
95.1
97.4
119.9
116.7
108.2
169.6
172.2
108.2
96.1
96.0
172.3
174.9
104.3
119.1
116.6
153.4
101.9
160.7
156.9
97.1
116.4
90.0
166.4
168.9
106.3
97.1
97.2
116.4
113.7
105.2
109.6
107.7
112.7
109.9
154.1
103.0
162.4
154.5
171.6
174.4
109.9
98.2
101.9
104.8'
119,1
114.8
152.1
174.0
175.6
110.5
104.1
98.1
127.5
117.0
105.4
114.5
107.2
121.5
117.4
158.8
105.0
157.6
167.8
112.9
109.5
117.4
113.9
158.9
105.5
156.9
154.3
173.9
176.1
110.9
98.3
99.6
122.7
119.5
111.5
113.9
110.9
118.2
114.8
160.7
106.7
156.8
159.8
117.7
109.5
106.4
98.4
109.1
119.1
108.0
107.8
101.3
109.5
117.4
114.8
160.0
106.2
155.8
159.7
101.5
119.5
106.9
107.1
98.8
109.6
113.8
113.1
114.6
115.4
115.9
HOUSING-Continued
Fuel and other utilities
Continued
Other utilities and public services ............................................................
Telephone services ..........................................................................
Local charges (12/77 - 100) ....................................................
Interstate toll calls (12/77 - 100) ..............................................
Intrastate toll calls (12/77 - 100) ..............................................
Water and sewerage maintenance ....................................................
Digitized for
92FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
110.8
125.6
139.9
105.7
104.1
108.3
162.6
162.7
118.2
101.2
97.3
117.9
112.2
100.2
109.7
105.2
114.3
111.3
154.1
102.4
162.0
163.9
100.3
111.8
88.0
102.7
99.4
101.8
110.0
111.6
101.8 101.8 101.8 101.8 101.8 101.8
100.9
101.0 101.2 101.2 101.4 101.7
201.6
110.1 110.2 111.0 111.2 112.1 112.1
112.0 112.6
100.8
150.4
155.5
98.2
116.0
87.8
102.9
96.0
103.6
110.2
103.2
97.9
127.2
118.0
104.7
113.7
106.5
121.2
102.8
116.5
157.5
104.4
157.9
166.4
99.3
117.8
93.0
106.4
94.4
104.2
101.2
106.2
119.3
91.6
108.6
106.4
106.8
113.9
115.6
115.5
100.2
111.2
104.7
97.9
129.2
118.3
105.5
115.1
108.8
121.4
117.5
157.2
103.9
152.8
164.8
99.0
119.7
90.7
107.9
104.1
106.9
116.1
112.0
112.6
123.5
140.2
105.4
102.8
111.8 112.8
101.2
112.2
98.2
100.5
95.3
99.9
120.0
120.0
120.7
108.1
100.8 101.0 101.0 101.2
123.8
112.6 111.6
111.8 107.9
116.2
115.8
112.0 112.9
158.2
105.3
172.2
154.3
102.4
116.6
98.2
104.9
98.6
106.6
153.9
102.3
162.1
147.3
100.1
115.6
95.5
102.5
94.4
104.4
110.0 112.2 112.2
122.8
120.2
116.8
108.7
111.9
107,0
116.1
114.2
155.4
103.5
159.1
150.5
99.7
116.0
103.6
102.7
93.5
105.8
112.5
110.1
98.5
98.9
121.5
119.2
110.0
200.0 200.6
110.2 101.1
101.6 102.6
173.8
177.3
111.8
99.3
100.5
123.9
120.3
112.2
111.8
114.2
23.
Continued— Consumer Price Index— U.S. city average
[1967 = 100 unless otherwise specified]
All Urban Consumers
General summary
1980
Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (revised)
1981
1980
May
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
237.4
202.7
109.1
140.4
250.1
213.3
249.7
214.2
111.9
149.7
254.3
212.3
212.2
255.3
147.9
113.3
147.3
259.2
214.1
114.8
148.4
189.3
196.6
124.6
126.6
194.9
125.0
125.3
117.9
197.4
125.2
127.6
120.0
199.3
126.8
128.2
121.3
201.0
120.0
194.9
124.4
125.7
118.1
249.9
147.6
133.3
252.4
149.6
133.7
254.3
150.9
134.5
1981
May
May
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
256.9
242.8
197.4
108.6
136.3
255.4
204.4
256.9
205.3
264.0
2044
142.3
142.8
141.3
266.4
204.5
113.3
140.9
269.3
205.6
114.3
141.4
269.9
204.1
113.4
140.5
196.7
126.0
127.8
117.5
195.5
126.1
127.0
115.9
194.9
125.7
126.2
115.9
195.9
125.4
127.3
117.0
198.4
128.0
126.7
119.3
200.0
127.8
129.3
122.4
1893
122.7
121.5
112.9
256.4
152.2
135.6
230.8
135.6
125.0
242.2
143.2
129.9
245.5
145.5
131.1
248.7
147.3
132.9
251.5
149.3
133.9
252.7
150.4
134.0
254.2
151.5
134.5
APPAREL AND UPKEEP - Continued
Apparel commodities
Continued
Apparel commodities less footwear—Continued
Infants’ and toddlers’ ......................................................................
Other apparel commodities ............................................................
Sewing materials and notions (12/77 = 100) ............................
Jewelry and luggage (12/77 = 100) ........................................
110.6
149.5
112.2
212.1
114.3
146.8
110.0 110.8 112.2
Fijotwear...............................................................................................
Men’s (12/77 = 100) ....................................................................
Boys’ and girls' (12/77 = 100) ......................................................
Womens’ (12/77 = 100)................................................................
121.3
115.8
Apparel services
Laundry and drycleaning other than coin operated (12/77 = 100)............
Other apparel services (12/77 = 100) ..................................................
232.2
136.9
124.5
243.4
143.5
130.5
246.3
145.3
131.7
TRANSPORTATION ............................................................................
249.0
261.1
264.7
270.9
273.5
275.3
277.8
249.9
261.9
265.7
272.1
274.4
276.3
278.9
P-ivate................................................................................................
249.2
259.4
262.9
269.4
271.7
273.4
276.0
250.1
260.8
264.4
271.0
273.2
275.1
277.7
New cars .............................................................................................
Used cars .............................................................................................
Gasoline ...............................................................................................
Automobile maintenance and repair........................................................
Body work (12/77 = 100)..............................................................
Automobile drive train, brake, and miscellaneous
mechanical repair (12/77 = 100) ................................................
Maintenance and servicing (12/77 = 100) ......................................
Power plant repair (12/77 = 100) ..................................................
Other private transportation ..................................................................
Other private transportation commodities ........................................
Motor oil, coolant, and other products (12/77 = 100) ................
Automobile parts and equipment (12/77 = 100)..................
Tires.................................................................................
Other parts and equipment (12/77 = 100) ........................
Other private transportation services................................................
Automobile insurance ..............................................................
Automobile finance charges (12/77 = 100) ..............................
Automobile rental, registration, and other fees (12/77 = 100) . . .
State registration ..............................................................
Drivers' licenses (12/77 = 100) ........................................
Vehicle inspection (12/77 = 100) ......................................
Other vehicle related fees (12/77 = 100) ..........................
178.9
199.3
375.4
266.1
130.6
184,5
234.4
373.3
280.1
136.8
185.3
234.0
385.2
282.7
137.3
184.8
234.3
410.8
285.4
139.2
182.9
235.4
420.7
287.7
140.3
186.1
239.1
419.3
289.0
140.8
190.9
245.2
416.5
290.8
141.5
179.6
199.3
377.1
266.1
129.7
184.6
234.4
374.4
280.6
136.7
185.7
234.0
386.6
283.2
137.3
185.0
234.4
412.5
285.4
139.2
182.7
235.4
422.3
288.2
140.2
186.2
239.1
420.8
289.7
140.7
191.2
245.2
417.7
291.3
141.3
126.6
125.9
125.1
224.5
195.3
132.2
125.4
172.6
126.5
234.5
247.1
155.0
146.4
104.7
120.4
124.0
134.0
131.6
132.7
231.0
203.6
138.8
130.6
182.1
127.6
240.6
252.5
159.4
115.8
146.9
105.3
124.3
132.7
135.8
132.5
134.4
232.4
203.7
139.1
130.6
181.5
128.6
242.4
252.3
163.4
116.2
146.9
105.3
124.8
133.7
136.8
133.7
135.5
234.2
205.8
141.6
131.8
183.5
129.3
244.0
253.7
165.1
116.7
146.9
105.4
125.8
134.7
137.7
134.8
137.0
234.7
206.2
141.6
132.1
184.1
129.2
244.6
254.4
164.3
118.2
146.9
105.4
126.1
138.4
138.0
135.5
137.8
236.3
208.1
143.5
133.2
185.8
130.1
246.2
255.7
166.5
118.2
146.9
105.5
126.0
138.4
138.7
136.5
138.6
238.9
2086
143.1
133.6
186.4
130.4
249.4
256.8
172.9
117.7
147.5
105.5
125.8
136.3
127.8
125.4
125.4
226.7
196.7
131.5
126.5
175.6
125.0
236.8
246.9
153.8
113.1
146.5
104.4
135.6
131.7
132.2
233.2
205.7
139.0
132.0
184.7
127.8
242.9
252.0
157.9
117.5
147.0
105.1
125.1
142.0
137.5
132.7
133.5
235.0
206.2
139.2
132.4
184.8
128.9
244.9
251.8
161.7
118.2
146.9
105.1
125.6
144.1
138.3
133.5
134.7
236.9
207.5
139.0
133.4
186.6
129.3
247.0
253.2
163.9
119.3
147.0
105.1
126.6
147.2
140.2
134.7
135.9
237.3
208.0
139.8
133.7
186.9
129.5
247.4
253.9
163.4
119.9
147.0
105.1
126.7
148.9
140.5
135.7
136.7
239.2
210.4
140.5
135.4
189.6
130.8
249.2
255.2
166.3
119.3
147.0
105.2
126.6
147.1
141.2
136.4
137.7
241.9
211.7
141.4
136.1
191.1
130.7
252.4
256.3
172.5
118.1
147.7
105.2
126.5
142.8
Public...................................................................................................
239.5
280.1
286.4
288.1
293.9
297.2
297.7
232.9
271.8
279.0
280.6
285 1
287.7
288.2
Airline fare.............................................................................................
Intercity bus fare ..................................................................................
Intracity mass transit ............................................................................
Taxi fare ...............................................................................................
Intercity train fare...................................................................................
270.0
293.6
204.6
259.9
250.0
327.4
310.1
237.1
269.7
270.1
331.9
310.7
247.1
271.0
276.4
334.1
312.8
248.4
271.4
276.5
343.7
323.2
250.8
273.8
276.7
348.6
329.1
251.7
279.9
277.2
348.8
333.4
251 9
280.4
296.7
270.0
293.4
265.7
251.1
325.7
309.8
236.5
275.9
270.3
330.2
310.6
246.5
277.5
276.8
332.7
312.2
247.8
277.7
276.9
342.3
323.9
249.1
280.5
277.1
346.6
329.2
249.8
287.4
277.5
346.7
333.0
249.9
287.9
298.5
120.0
112.1
121.0
130.0
202.0
128.7
127.7
120.5
MEDICAL CARE ..................................................................................
263.4
275.8
279.5
282.6
284.7
287.0
289.0
264.9
277.6
281.4
284.4
287.0
289.1
290.8
Medical care commodities
166.4
175.1
176.7
179.2
180.7
182.4
184.7
167.2
175.6
177.5
179.6
181.2
183.4
185.9
Prescription drugs ................................................................................
Anti-infective drugs (12/77 = 100)..................................................
Tranquilizers and sedatives (12/77 = 100) ......................................
Circulatories and diuretics (12/77 = 100) ........................................
Hormones, diabetic drugs, biologicals, and
prescription and supplies (12/77 = 100) ......................................
Pain and symptom control drugs (12/77 = 100) ..............................
Supplements, cough and cold preparations, and
respiratory agents (12/77 = 100)................................................
153.5
118.7
124.1
114.6
160.7
124.7
130.2
119.1
162.7
127.7
130.7
120.6
165.0
129.2
131.9
121.9
166.5
130.5
132.8
122.2
168.5
130.2
134.4
123.9
170.4
130.3
136.0
124.9
154.6
120.7
123.5
116.8
161.5
126.4
128.6
120.2
163.4
128.6
129.4
121.3
165.3
129.5
130.7
122.9
166.8
131.0
131.5
123.7
169.2
132.4
133.3
125.3
171.6
132.7
135.2
126.1
133.2
122.9
142.3
126.9
143.9
128.7
147.4
130.9
148.2
132.7
151.2
134.5
154.6
136.5
132.4
124.2
141.7
129.6
143.8
131.4
146.5
133.3
147.8
134.1
150.9
135.8
154.5
138.2
118.2
122.4
123.2
124.5
126.3
128.6
130.2
119.5
123.1
123.8
125.2
126.5
128.8
131.2
Nonprescription drugs and medical supplies (12/77 = 100) ....................
Eyeglasses (12/77 = 100) ............................................................
Internal and respiratory over-the-counter drugs ................................
Nonprescription medical equipment and supplies (12/77 = 100)........
119.5
116.5
186.0
116.5
126.2
128.9
123.1
202.7
124.5
129.9
124.6
204.2
125.0
130.9
125.1
205.9
126.2
132.6
125.3
209.1
128.6
120.1
131.9
123.4
208.0
128.2
133.6
124.1
200.4
125.1
129.4
122.3
203.0
126.5
130.5
116.3
186.9
117.1
126.5
120.4
198.0
123.7
127.9
198.1
122.5
127.1
121.5
199.3
123.6
Medical care services ........................................................................
284.7
297.9
302.1
305.2
307.5
309.8
311.7
286.3
300.0
304.3
307.4
310.2
312.2
313.6
Professional services ............................................................................
Physicians' services........................................................................
Dental services..............................................................................
Other professional services (12/77 = 100)......................................
250.3
267.5
238.8
122.2
261.7
280.3
248.6
128.5
264.7
283.9
251.4
129.3
267.2
287.7
252.8
130.0
2696
290.3
254.9
131.5
271.7
292.2
257.1
132.6
273.8
295.5
257.7
133.7
253.5
272.3
241.2
121.6
265.0
285.7
251.3
126.6
268.7
290.0
254.9
127.6
271.6
293.9
257.0
128.5
274.2
296.3
259.8
129.9
276.2
297.9
262.2
131.3
278.0
300.3
263.3
132.1
Other medical care services..................................................................
Hospital and other medical services (12/77 = 100)..........................
Hosp'ta room...........................................................................
Other hospital and medical care services (12/77 = 100)............
326.3
130.4
410.1
129.5
341.6
141.7
443.7
141.4
347.3
144.5
453.8
143.7
351.1
146.1
458.2
145.5
353.4
147.1
460.9
146.7
355.9
148.1
465.0
147.3
357.6
148.3
465.1
147.6
326.5
129.7
406.7
129.1
342.9
141.3
443.1
140.6
347.8
143.7
451.9
142.7
351.3
145.2
455.9
144.4
354.4
146.7
459.2
146.3
356.2
147.3
461.4
146.8
357.1
147.3
461.3
146.8
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
120.8
121.1
122.6
205.5
127.1
211.0
130 5
93
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW August 1981 • Current Labor Statistics: Consumer Prices
23.
Continued— Consumer Price Index— U.S. city average
[1967=100 unless otherwise specified]
All Urban Consumers
General summary
Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (revised)
1981
1980
1980
1981
May
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
May
Dec.
ENTERTAINMENT................................................................................
204.0
212.0
214.4
216.7
218.2
219.2
220.3
202.4
Entertainment commodities................................................................
207.0
215.3
217.1
219.7
222.1
223.6
225.0
203.4
135.6
264.1
137.1
121.1
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
210.1 212.2
215.0
216.1
217.0
217.7
210.9
213.0
216.2
218.0
219.4
220.4
236.4
122.3
127.6
245.5
131.5
129.6
249.4
133.5
130.7
254.0
132.9
133.0
256.7
136.3
134.1
262.5
134.8
135.6
264.0
137.3
120.9
120.8
115.4
189.7
Reading materials (12/77 = 100)..........................................................
Newspapers ..................................................................................
Magazines, periodicals, and books (12/77 = 100)............................
121.5
237.2
122.4
128.2
246.2
131.5
130.0
249.7
133.4
130.9
253.8
132.9
133.2
256.6
136.2
134.1
262.5
134.8
Sporting goods and equipment (12/77 = 100)........................................
Sport vehicles (12/77 = 100) ........................................................
Indoor and warm weather sport equipment (12/77 = 100)................
Bicycles ........................................................................................
Other sporting goods and equipment (12/77 = 100) ........................
118.5
119.9
179.7
113.7
122.9
(’ >
116.2
184.7
120.4
123.5
(’ )
115.7
185.9
120.9
124.7
126.5
115.9
187.2
126.1
128.5
116.2
188.4
127.5
130.4
116.7
188.3
127.2
129.5
117.4
190.4
122.4
114.0
112.5
110.3
180.9
114.6
117.8
V)
113.4
184.9
119.3
118.5
(’ )
114.5
186.7
119.2
119.3
118.1
115.3
188.3
119.2
120.3
119.5
115.2
189.4
119.3
121.1
119.3
116.4
191.6
121.5
Toys, hobbies, and other entertainment (12/77 - 100)............................
Toys, hobbies, and music equipment (12/77 = 100) ........................
Photographic supplies and equipment (12/77 = 100)........................
Pet supplies and expense (12/77 = 100) ........................................
119.4
118.5
123.5
121.3
124.4
122.4
121.5
130.1
126.3
124.7
127.8
126.2
125.4
132.4
128.8
127.6
125.8
133.3
118.1
115.8
120.5
120.9
121.8
132.0
127.2
125.6
124.0
132.3
118.5
122.4
127.6
122.9
119.4
122.3
129.7
125.8
123.0
124.4
131.9
126.3
123.1
125.5
132.8
127.2
124.0
126.7
133.2
127.7
125.0
126.1
133.6
210.9
213.0
213.0
213.4
214.0
201.8
2097
212.0
213.9
213.8
213.9
214.2
128.1
124.7
129.4
125.3
129.8
125.3
130.7
124.5
120.5
120.1 122.0 121.0 121.1
130.7
125.1
121.7
121.0
125.9
124.0
127.8
125.2
116.5
121.8 122.0
129.0
126.2
123.0
129.6
125.9
121.7
130.2
124.7
122.4
130.5
125.0
122.5
226.2
227.4
228.7
229.9
232.2
201.6
223.0
224.4
225.6
226.8
227.9
230.4
Entertainment services ......................................................................
Fees for participant sports (12/77 - 100)..............................................
Admissions (12/77 = 100)....................................................................
Other entertainment services (12/77 - 100) ..........................................
OTHER GOODS AND SERVICES..........................................................
112.0
120.8 122.0
120.1 128.4
200.1 207.8
120.2 125.7
118.8
116.4
123.1
119.4
211.2
224.6
120.6 121.2 122.6
122.6
120.0
Tobacco products ..............................................................................
200.4
210.8
211.9
212.3
212.5
213.3
218.2
200.5
210.4
211.7
211.9
212.4
213.2
217.8
Cigarettes............................................................................................
Other tobacco products and smoking accessories (12/77 = 100)............
202.9
119.0
213.5
124.9
214.6
125.4
214.8
126.5
214.8
128.0
215.5
129.6
220.8
130.4
203.2
118.5
213.2
124.5
214.5
125.4
214.5
126.4
214.9
128.1
215.5
130.0
220.3
131.3
Personal care ....................................................................................
211.6
220.9
222.5
224.6
226.9
228.7
230.5
210.9
220.0 221.1
223.2
225.1
226.4
228.4
Toilet goods and personal care appliances..............................................
Products for the hair, hairpieces, and wigs (12/77 = 100) ................
Dental and shaving products (12/77 - 100) ....................................
Cosmetics, bath and nail preparations, manicure
and eye makeup implements (12/77 = 100) ................................
Other toilet goods and small personal care appliances (12/77 = 100)
204.1
120.0
121.0
215.2
125.2
128.4
216.9
126.3
130.8
219.5
128.3
132.9
222.4
131.4
135.3
223.9
131.9
136.6
226.6
132.4
138.6
203.9
118.8
214.3
125.3
125.4
216.1
126.2
128.3
218.5
126.7
131.2
220.9
128.4
133.3
222.5
128.8
135.1
225.5
130.1
136.1
116.5
117.4
122.6
124.8
122.9
125.5
123.2
127.5
123.9
128.3
125.3
128.4
127.8
129.8
116.2
119.0
121.4
126.8
126.6
129.0
123.4
130.7
124.4
131.3
126.2
134.0
Personal care services..........................................................................
Beauty parlor services for women....................................................
Haircuts and other barber shop services for men (12/77 = 100) . . . .
218,8
220.4
122.2
226.8
228.7
126.4
228.3
230.1
127.3
230.0
231.7
128.5
231.7
233.6
129.2
233.7
236.0
129.9
234.7
236.4
131.1
218.1
219.4
122.0
225.8
227.5
126.0
226.3
227.6
126.7
228.1
229.4
127.6
229.4
230.8
128.4
230.5
231.7
129.1
231.5
232.0
130.5
Personal and educational expenses
229.2
251.5
253.6
254.4
255.2
256.2
256.8
229.4
251.7
254.0
255.0
256.0
257.1
257.7
207.1
234.7
118.6
117.9
120.9
127.8
222.1
258.2
132.2
131.5
134.4
133.4
228.6
259.7
132.6
132.0
134.4
135.7
229.8
260.4
132.7
132.1
134.4
137.1
230.5
261.2
132.8
132.3
134.4
138.7
230.8
262.4
132.8
132.3
134.4
141.8
230.8
263.0
132.8
132.3
134.4
143.6
210.9
234.2
118.7
117.9
120.7
125.1
225.8
258.1
132.4
131.5
134.3
132.2
232.4
259.6
132.8
132.0
134.3
134.4
233.6
260.6
132 9
132.1
134.3
136.3
234.4
261.6
133.0
132.3
134.4
138.1
234.6
262.9
133.0
132.3
134.4
141.1
234.7
263.6
133.0
132.3
134.4
142.8
370.1
342.6
238.9
297.6
368.3
364.5
255.8
308.4
379.9
368.9
259.4
309.5
404.8
370.7
262.3
314.6
414.5
373.6
265.2
318.3
413.2
378.1
267.9
323.1
410.4
386.6
272.4
326.2
371.6
342.8
237.9
296.5
369.4
364.7
254.4
306.6
381.2
368.8
258.0
307.4
406.3
370.4
261.0
313.4
415.9
373.0
263.6
317.2
414.5
377.6
266.1
321.1
411.5
386.1
270.6
323.8
Schoolbooks and supplies ....................................................................
Personal and educational services..........................................................
Tuition and other school fees ..........................................................
College tuition (12/77 = 100) ..................................................
Elementary and high school tuition (12/77 = 100) ....................
Personal expenses (12/77 = 100)..................................................
120.0
122.2 122.8
Special indexes:
Gasoline, motor oil, coolant, and other products......................................
Insurance and finance ..........................................................................
Utilities and public transportation............................................................
Housekeeping and home maintenance services ......................................
1Not available.
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
c=corrected.
24. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Cross classification of region and population size class by expenditure
category and commodity and service group
[December 1977 = 100]
Size class A
(1.25 million or more)
Size class B
(385,000-1.250 million)
Size class C
(75,000-385,000)
Size class D
(75,000 or less)
Category and group
1980
Dec.
1981
Feb.
1980
Apr.
Dec.
1981
Feb.
1980
Apr.
Dec.
1981
1980
1981
Feb.
Apr.
Dec.
Feb.
Apr.
Northeast
EXPENDITURE CATEGORY
All items ............................................................................................................
Food and beverages ....................................................................................
Housing ......................................................................................................
Apparel and upkeep .....................................................................................
Medical care................................................................................................
Entertainment ..............................................................................................
Other goods and services ............................................................................
132.8
132.8
135.2
114.8
141.9
128.0
120.7
122.7
135.7
135.2
138.0
114.9
147.3
130.5
124.6
123.7
137.3
136.8
139.1
116.9
149.7
132.9
126.3
124.5
139.8
135.8
144.6
116.8
149.4
129.3
123.2
127.5
143.2
137.6
149.0
114.0
155.0
131.2
127.5
128.5
144.4
138.3
149.1
118.2
157.3
132.9
130.2
130.4
143.8
137.7
153.7
124.8
146.5
130.1
120.4
130.3
146.6
139.8
156.3
119.5
153.0
132.1
124.2
131.1
149.8
141.4
161.5
121.7
154.9
133.8
125.8
132.6
137.8
132.8
142.0
120.3
146.5
130.7
126.7
124.4
141.6
134.8
147.5
119.1
151.0
134.4
126.7
126.5
143.4
135.2
149.7
123.3
153.0
135.9
128.5
127.1
COMMODITY AND SERVICE GROUP
Commodities......................................................................................................
Commodities less food and beverages ..........................................................
Services .............................................................................................................
133.7
134.3
131.6
137.0
138.2
134.0
137.9
138.7
136.4
140.8
143.2
138.3
144.3
147.6
141.5
145.0
148.3
143.4
142.1
144.1
146.7
144.6
146.8
149.8
147.1
149.7
154.1
138.1
140.7
137.3
141.7
145.0
141.4
143.3
147.1
143.6
141.1
140.5
142.1
115.6
152.6
142.1
125.7
131.7
North Central
EXPENDITURE CATEGORY
All items ............................................................................................................
Food and beverages ....................................................................................
Housing .......................................................................................................
Apparel ana upkeep ....................................................................................
Transportation..............................................................................................
Medical care................................................................................................
Entertainment ..............................................................................................
Other goods and services ............................................................................
COMMODITY AND SERVICE GROUP
Commodities......................................................................................................
Commodities less food and beverages ..........................................................
Services .............................................................................................................
143.3
135.0
155.3
146.4
130.5
125.1
124.2
144.0
137.1
152.7
109.4
151.8
134.6
127.5
126.3
145.9
137.5
155.0
112.3
153.9
137.1
130.2
127.9
140.0
132.9
146.0
118.8
146.8
131.4
121.3
130.3
142.8
136.4
147.7
116.9
152.3
136.2
124.2
132.7
143.5
136.6
147.4
119.8
154.3
138.1
125.3
134.0
136.6
135.1
139.1
114.8
146.2
132.4
124.0
123.9
139.7
137.0
141.5
114.5
153.1
136.7
126.8
126.4
140.2
137.8
140.5
116.4
155.1
138.6
129.2
127.9
136.2
139.1
135.9
116.2
145.4
134.6
129.8
139.6
139.6
140.5
114.1
150.3
140.1
124.8
131.1
139.9
142.3
148,4
140.3
141.8
149.4
141.7
143.7
152.1
136.5
138.0
145.6
139.5
140.9
148.1
140.1
141.5
149.0
135.2
135.3
138.9
138.2
138.7
142.2
138.6
139.0
142.7
133.4
130.9
140.6
136.0
134.5
145.3
136.9
135.4
147.8
110.8
120.8
South
EXPENDITURE CATEGORY
All Items ............................................................................................................
Food and beverages ....................................................................................
Housing ......................................................................................................
Apparel and upkeep ....................................................................................
Transportation..............................................................................................
Medical care................................................................................................
Entertainment ..............................................................................................
Other qoods and services ............................................................................
COMMODITY AND SERVICE GROUP
Commodities......................................................................................................
Commodities less food and beverages ..........................................................
Services ............................................................................................................
144.1
139.0
148.7
146.8
127.9
120.4
128.1
142.1
138.8
146.1
119.3
152.9
130.4
123.5
129.4
137.2
137.3
141.5
140.1
140.7
144.8
139.0
136.8
143.1
120.0
155.7
132.5
123.2
131.3
140.9
135.4
146.7
117.3
147.9
132.1
127.9
128.8
144.9
138.6
151.5
117.1
153.4
135.1
129.0
131.0
146.7
139.8
153.0
121.3
155.9
136.5
130.0
132.0
138.6
137.2
142.5
114.1
145.7
133.7
127.5
126.7
142.1
138.4
146.6
113.0
152.2
136.8
129.0
128.6
143.7
139.0
148.3
115.5
153.8
140.0
130.5
129.7
136.5
136.9
137.5
108.9
144.8
140.7
130.7
129.9
138.8
140.2
138.4
105.6
151.4
144.0
131.0
130.5
141.8
142.3
142.4
109.4
154.3
146.4
131.2
131.6
141.5
142.6
147.6
137.5
138.3
146.1
140.8
141.7
151.2
142.3
143.4
153.3
136.3
135.9
142.3
139.1
139.5
146.6
140.1
140.6
149.2
135.6
135.0
138.0
138.4
137.6
139.3
140.7
140.0
143.6
139.8
137.3
140.6
129.0
148.0
136.6
133.5
130.4
141.0
140.8
138.3
129.8
154.1
139.6
140.5
131.5
143.6
141.3
142.0
133.7
156.0
140.8
142.1
133.0
137.2
137.1
143.8
139.7
139.3
142.9
141.6
141.6
146.5
121.1
West
EXPENDITURE CATEGORY
All items .............................................................................................................
Food and beverages ....................................................................................
Housing .....................................................................................................
Apparei and upkeep ....................................................................................
Transportation..............................................................................................
Medical care................................................................................................
Entertainment ..............................................................................................
Other goods and services ............................................................................
140.7
134.3
146.0
117.9
146.7
134.3
123.8
127.7
142.6
136.8
147.2
116.4
150.8
137.5
127.0
129.1
145.7
138.2
151.2
119.9
154.2
139.5
127.0
131.8
141.4
136.5
146.7
123.8
146.6
133.1
125.0
129.0
144.0
139.4
148.7
122.3
151.9
136.0
126.6
131.4
146.7
141.4
151.8
125.2
154.9
137.5
128.9
133.3
138.4
132.7
142.1
141.2
134.8
145.2
148.5
134.5
126.3
125.2
152.6
137.5
126.6
126.8
142.1
136.2
144.8
114.9
155.6
139.0
128.9
128.6
COMMODITY AND SERVICE GROUP
Commodities.......................................................................................................
Commodities less food and beverage ............................................................
Services .............................................................................................................
135.3
135.7
147.8
137.3
137.6
149.6
139.5
140.1
154.0
137.5
138.0
146.7
140.0
140.3
149.4
142.2
142.6
152.9
135.2
136.2
142.9
137.1
138.0
146.9
139.1
140.2
146.4
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
112.0
112.1
95
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW August 1981 • Current Labor Statistics: Consumer Prices
25.
Consumer Price Index— U.S. city average, and selected areas
[1967=100 unless otherwise specified]
Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (revised)
All Urban Consumers
Area1
1980
1981
1980
1981
May
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
May
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
U.S. city average2 ..............................................................
244.9
258.4
260.5
263.2
265.1
266.8
269.0
245.1
258.7
260.7
263.5
265.2
266.8
269.1
Anchorage, Alaska (10/67=100) ........................................
Atlanta, Ga...........................................................................
Baltimore, Md.......................................................................
Boston. Mass........................................................................
Buffalo, N.Y..........................................................................
226.5
244.6
223.1
Chicago, lll.-Northwestern Ind................................................
Cincinnati, Ohio-Ky.-Ind..........................................................
Cleveland, O hio..................................................................
Dallas-Ft. Worth, Tex............................................................
Denver-Boulder, Colo............................................................
243.1
251.6
Detroit, Mich.........................................................................
Honolulu, Hawaii ................................................................
Houston, Tex........................................................................
Kansas City, Mo.-Kansas ....................................................
Los Angeles-Long Beach, Anaheim, Calif................................
248.4
249.1
236.9
263.0
264.3
256.4
260.3
258.9
264.5
258.0
269.7
236.1
274.8
259.1
2587
234.5
232.5
Philadelphia, Pa.-N.J.............................................................
Pittsburgh, Pa.......................................................................
Portland, Oreg.-Wash............................................................
St. Louis, Mo.-lll....................................................................
San Diego, Calif....................................................................
257.3
241.8
269.7
San Francisco-Oakland, Calif................................................
Seattle-Everett, Wash............................................................
Washington, D.C.-Md.-Va.......................................................
249.6
241.2
239.4
268.5
259.4
270.2
243.3
281.5
261.9
261.6
250.5
262.0
249.4
252.4
253.2
260.6
252.7
255.9
265.5
266.4
255.7
287.7
254.9
268.2
263.3
272.4
250.0
286.4
265.4
265.5
253.9
257.6
258.3
266.5
255.4
261.0
265.7
268.1
259.3
293.1
264.5
271.7
243.0
252.9
271.1
262.3
258.9
288.2
262.4
275.2
248.9
258.1
266.3
267.3
252.6
143.2
278.5
130.9
255.2
256.7
259.9
234.1
235.8
261.9
239.9
278.5
268.0
297.5
255.9
242.6
264.8
274.7
264.7
246.8
242.0
262.7
252.3
262.9
249.1
255.1
258.9
267.7
255.5
265.5
243.5
277.7
260.1
265.0
263.6
266.5
258.1
266.4
263.9
273.3
293.4
268.0
250.2
283.1
264.3
269.1
141.7
274.6
262.4
252.7
253.7
260.6
259.5
271.3
270.7
144.8
283.5
267.3
254.8
261.5
267.3
255.9
263.3
262.9
276.1
268.4
292.5
267.0
259.4
288.0
261.6
262.3
259.4
263.0
272.1
276.9
285.8
265.0
255.9
282.9
255.7
Area is used for New York and Chicago.
2Average of 85 cities.
258.8
138.8
271.9
260.6
247.2
252.7
273.9
272.9
264.4
268.6
263.6
269.3
261.8
282.2
265.5
237.0
272.1
257.2
262.2
268.8
249.7
266.7
268.2
270.3
260.5
264.9
257.2
’ The areas listed include not only the central city but the entire portion of the Standard Metropolitan
Statistical Area, as defined for the 1970 Census of Population, except that the Standard Consolidated
Digitized for96
FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
263.7
272.0
279.6
140.0
269.9
137.3
266.2
259.0
247.3
259.7
266.1
281.4
277.3
129.7
250.3
Miami, Fla. (11/77=100) ....................................................
Milwaukee, Wis.....................................................................
Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minn.-Wis..............................................
New York, N.Y.-Northeastern N.J...........................................
Northeast, Pa. (Scranton)....................................................
259.6
245.2
240.1
236.2
266.4
262.6
255.7
247.8
236.8
254.6
273.5
274.4
266.5
269.5
269.3
263.6
270.3
262.3
235.0
260.3
265.9
251.4
246.5
249.1
241.1
240.1
258.3
270.9
267.9
264.2
271.5
267.7
26.
Producer Price Indexes, by stage of processing
[19(57=100]
Annual
1980
Commodity grouping
1981
1980
June
July
Aug.
Sept
Oct
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Finished goods....................................................................
247.0
244.9
249.3
251.4
251.4
255.4
256.2
257.2
'260.9
Finished consumer goods..............................................
Finished consumer foods ..........................................
Crude ..................................................................
Processed ............................................................
Nondurable goods less foods ....................................
Durable goods..........................................................
Consumer nondurable goods less food and energy . . . .
Capital equipment........................................................
248.9
239.5
237.2
237.8
283.9
206.2
191.2
239.8
246.8
233.0
224.5
231.8
285.9
204.1
191.1
237.8
251.7
241.6
240.9
239.7
288.4
207.5
192.8
240.6
254.1
246.5
247.0
244.4
290.0
208.1
193.9
241.9
254.1
247.4
259.8
244.3
290.9
206.2
194.6
241.8
257.0
248.0
237.8
246.9
291.7
214.0
195.6
249.2
257.9
248.9
250.5
246.7
293.9
213.1
196.9
250.2
258.9
249.3
254.8
246.7
296.2
213.5
197.6
250.9
Feb.1
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
'263.3
265.3
267.7
268.9
269.9
'262.5
'251.0
257.9
'248.4
'302.7
'214.9
'201.9
'254.6
'265.0
'251.3
'265.6
'247.9
'308.4
'215.1
'203.5
'256.7
267.3
251.8
279.1
247.3
314.7
213.7
204.5
257.8
2696
251.5
278.8
247.0
318.8
216.2
206.5
260.5
270.6
252.0
262.3
249.1
319.6
217.7
207.1
262.6
271.5
253.1
255.8
250.8
321.0
217.9
208.0
264.0
FINISHED GOODS
INTERMEDIATE MATERIALS
Inteimediate materials, supplies, and components..................
280.3
278.8
281.6
284.3
285.3
287.7
289.1
291.9
'296.1
'298.3
301.4
305.4
306.6
307.1
Materials and components for manufacturing..................
Materials for food manufacturing................................
Materials for nondurable manufacturing......................
Materials for durable manufacturing............................
Components for manufacturing ..................................
265.7
264.4
259.5
301.0
231.8
264.3
259.7
261.0
297.0
230.3
265.6
264.4
261.7
297.3
232.4
268.9
277.9
263.4
299.2
235.6
269.5
275.8
263.2
300.5
237.0
273.3
295.1
265.0
304.7
238.4
273.9
299.0
266.7
303.8
238.3
275.7
279.6
268.5
304.3
246.3
'279.6
'280.7
'274.0
'306.9
'250.3
'280.3
'273.2
'276.5
'305.4
'253.0
281.0
267.9
278.7
306.5
253.5
283.9
264.0
283.8
310.2
255.2
285.0
260.3
286.6
311.1
256.0
285.8
263.9
287.5
310.5
257.0
Materials and components for construction ....................
268.3
266.9
269.6
271.4
271.7
272.4
274.0
276.6
'279.2
'280.3
282.6
287.7
288.3
289.3
Processed fuels and lubricants......................................
Manufacturing industries............................................
Nonmanufacturing industries......................................
503.0
425.7
570.9
502.0
425.4
569.6
514.2
431.0
586.1
517.4
436.0
588.4
519.5
440.8
588.9
516.2
440.6
583.7
521.3
445.2
589.3
539.4
457.9
611.4
551.9
469.5
624.7
'569.8
'482.8
'646.7
5958
501.6
678.7
607.0
506.9
695.2
608.7
510.9
695.0
605.7
505.7
694.0
Containers ..................................................................
254.5
256.2
257.0
257.4
257.9
260.1
259.5
260.6
'264.6
'268.2
270.6
274.2
276.0
277.2
Supplies......................................................................
Manufacturing industries............................................
Nonmanufacturing industries......................................
Feeds ..................................................................
Other supplies ......................................................
244.5
231.9
251.1
229.0
253.6
241.2
232.8
245.7
205.1
253.4
245.3
234.2
251.1
225.2
254.7
247.7
235.4
254.1
234.7
255.8
250.3
236.1
257.6
246.8
256.9
252.3
237.5
259.9
250.3
258.8
255.2
238.7
263.8
259.2
261.3
255.0
239.5
263.0
251.5
262.4
'257.8
'242.5
'265.7
'252.0
'265.6
'257.8
'244.8
'264.6
'237.5
'268.3
258.6
246.7
265.0
232.2
270.1
262.1
250.3
2684
239.5
272.4
263.8
251.7
270.1
243.2
273.6
264.6
253.4
270.5
235.7
276.1
Chide materials for further processing..................................
304.6
288.4
304.3
317.0
319.3
322.8
324.6
323.5
328.0
'336.5
333.0
335.2
333.2
334.3
Foodstuffs and feedstuffs..............................................
259.2
243.0
263.4
276.8
276.6
279.1
277.3
271.6
270.7
267.1
262.0
263.4
260.6
264.2
Nonfood materials........................................................
401.0
384.6
390.8
401.9
409.8
415.4
424.9
433.8
'450.1
'484.9
4848
488.8
488.6
484.2
Nonfood materials except fuel....................................
Manufacturing industries ........................................
Construction..........................................................
346.1
357.4
237.6
328.9
338.9
234.1
333.9
343.9
239.1
344.8
355.4
243.7
351.4
362.6
244.8
355.6
367.1
245.3
363.9
376.1
246.5
373.3
386.5
247.4
391.0
'405.1
254.8
'427.9
'445.5
'257.2
430.6
448.2
260.2
432.7
450.4
262.3
428.6
445.7
263.4
418.3
434.4
263.5
Crude fu e l................................................................
Manufacturing industries ........................................
Nonmanufacturing industries ..................................
615.0
690.5
567.0
604.0
675.7
558.8
615.1
690.5
567.1
626.3
705.4
575.5
639.1
722.0
585.4
650.9
738.1
593.8
6649
755.8
605.2
670.2
762.9
608.9
677.4
771.9
614.9
'697.7
'798.1
'630.6
685.2
781.4
621.5
697.2
795.9
631.6
715.3
819.7
645.2
739.9
851.4
664.4
Finished goods excluding foods............................................
Finished consumer goods excluding foods......................
Finished consumer goods less energy............................
247.8
250.8
218.0
247.3
250.9
214.9
250.2
253.9
219.7
251.4
255.0
221.9
251.1
254.6
221.9
256.2
258.7
225.0
257.0
259.5
225.5
258.2
260.9
226.0
'262.4
'265.1
'233.8
'265.5
'268.5
'229.6
268.0
271.7
229.8
271.2
275.1
231.3
272.6
276.1
232.1
273.6
277.0
232.9
Intermediate materials less foods and feeds..........................
Intermediate materials less energy ................................
282.3
265.3
281.5
263.5
283.8
265.5
285.8
268.3
286.6
269.2
288.2
272.2
289.3
273.3
293.5
274.9
298.0
'278.3
'301.0
'279.1
304.7
280.0
309.0
283.4
310.5
284.6
311.0
285.4
Intermediate foods and feeds ..............................................
252.6
242.0
251.4
263.7
265.9
280.3
285.7
270.0
270.9
'261,3
256.0
255.6
254.1
254.3
Crude materials less agricultural products ............................
Crude materials less energy..........................................
446.4
256.1
428.6
239.0
434.6
256.1
447.1
268.5
454.1
269.9
463.2
272.4
473.8
271.7
482.8
267.5
504.0
266.0
'547.6
262.6
547.5
259.4
551.9
261.1
552.8
257.9
547.4
259.6
CRUDE MATERIALS
SPECIAL GROUPINGS
1
2
Data for February 1981 have been revised to reflect the availability of late reports and corrections
by respondents. All data are subject to revision 4 months after original publication.
'«Jot available.
r==revised.
NOTE: Figures in this table may differ from those previously reported because stage-of-processing
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
indexes from January 1976 through December 1980 have been revised to reflect 1972 input-output
relationships.
Because of a correction for January 1981 revised data implemented after the release of data for May
1981, January 1981 figures reported previously may be erroneous. The January data in this table are
corrected.
97
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW August 1981 • Current Labor Statistics: Producer Prices
27.
Producer Price Indexes, by commodity groupings
[1967=100 unless otherwise specified]
Annual
average
1980
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
All commodities ........................................................................
All commodities (1957-59 - 100)
268.8
285.2
265.6
281.8
270.4
286.9
273.8
290.5
274.6
291.4
277.8
294.7
279.1
296.1
280.8
297.9
Farm products and processed foods and feeds........................
Industria! commodities..............................................................
244.7
274.8
234.3
273.5
246.6
276.2
255.1
278.2
256.5
278.8
259.4
282.0
260.5
283.4
249.4
238.6
239.0
252.7
233.4
233.5
215.3
240.0
166.6
247.0
265.5
146.8
207.4
309.4
254.3
252.0
244.8
260.5
227.2
267.0
265.8
159.3
251.4
292.4
263.8
254.0
256.5
275.7
224.5
280.8
271.6
176.9
261.5
282.7
267.0
266.2
260.6
266.8
241.0
295.2
275.5
188.4
280.7
292.0
263.6
240.9
269.2
263.0
222.9
278.5
280.9
175.2
284.4
285.8
264.9
246.6
270.9
254.8
241.2
236.0
243.1
230.6
228.7
322.5
233.0
226.8
227.2
226.8
233.9
233.2
226.6
229.5
227.2
325.4
234.3
241.5
234.7
248.5
230.1
229.8
313.5
234.6
2269
223.5
223.9
249.4
235.8
259.9
232.6
230.7
347.1
237.1
240.2
224.0
232.4
249.8
238.3
257.8
233.7
231.3
341.4
236.1
238.3
226.8
243.4
183.0
134.5
185.6
137.5
123.2
137.5
116.8
175.1
—
Code
01
01-1
01-2
01-3
01-4
01-5
01-6
01-8
01-7
01-9
02
02-1
02-2
Commodity group and subgroup
FARM PRODUCTS AND PROCESSED FOODS
AND FEEDS
Farm products ............................................................................
Fresh and dried fruits and vegetables ........................................
Grains......................................................................................
Livestock ................................................................................
Live poultry..............................................................................
Plant and animal fibers..............................................................
Fluid milk ................................................................................
Eggs........................................................................................
Hay, hayseeds, and oilseeds ....................................................
Other farm products ................................................................
202.1
271.1
271.2
171.0
247.1
299.0
1981
1980
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
r 264.8 '287.6
r 302.2 '305.1
289.6
307.3
292.8
310.7
293.7
311.6
294.5
312.5
257.0
286.6
r 257.9 '255.1
'295.7
253.1
2989
253.6
302.8
252.6
304.1
254.1
304.7
264.5 '262.4
258.7 '271.5
277.7 267.5
244.3 244.6
213.1
2208
284.1 268.4
288.4 289.5
185.7 184.8
311.8 295.0
296.1
295.1
260.6
291.6
261.8
239.3
213.5
270.1
289.5
180.4
289.5
295.9
263.2
2852
264.7
246.6
195.4
274.2
287.2
196.2
296.3
295.9
259.5
273.9
257.7
251.8
207.2
258.3
283.6
165.0
299.0
259.7
260.3
258.6
257.1
263.0
287.2
284.7
194.0
298.3
296.6
265.3
245.1
265.2
251.4
218.9
294.1
290.5
217.5
310.2
296.0
259.6
285.0
174.6
285.3
242.7
2561
241.5
256.0
238.0
233.8
404.7
239.5
231.0
230.6
246.9
257.2
245.3
250.9
240.2
2347
409.0
240.6
238.0
235.0
254.5
251.5
248.7
248.1
242.3
236.6
339.8
240.5
234.1
240.5
247.1
253.3
'251.5
'248.1
244.7
238.4
344.6
243.0
230.2
244.2
'248.9
'250.2
'252.1
'243.6
'245.0
'243.7
'323.7
'244.8
'228.2
248.0
'235.9
248.1
251.9
242.0
245.5
251.8
302.6
242.8
230.C
249.2
231.5
247.4
253.5
239.2
245.8
2587
286.0
243.4
232.6
249.9
237.8
248.0
255.1
244.8
245.0
260.1
265.3
245.0
228.6
251.1
241.2
249.7
256.0
248.3
245.6
263.3
277.6
245.5
227.5
251.5
234.5
188.1
140.2
125.1
143.5
118.3
176.2
213.8
189.6
140.7
125.8
145.0
119.1
176.8
213.8
190.4
140.8
128.2
144.0
'193.1
'146.5
129.8
143.6
211.0
186.6
139.5
124.3
141.0
117.0
175.0
212.9
177.5
214.3
'193.9
'147.1
'130.3
'144.0
'122.9
179.9 '180.7
'219.8 '221.3
194.5
149.6
133.9
144.0
122.5
180.1
225.4
196.5
151.6
134.6
145.7
124.1
182.1
226.3
198.0
156.7
137.1
146.1
124.7
182.4
231.1
199.5
158.2
138.9
146.6
124.8
185.0
228.1
221.0
Jan.
Feb.1
210.0
02-9
Processed foods and feeds..........................................................
Cereal and bakery products......................................................
Meats, poultry, and fish ............................................................
Dairy products..........................................................................
Processed fruits and vegetables................................................
Sugar and confectionery ..........................................................
Beverages and beverage materials............................................
Fats and o ils ............................................................................
Miscellaneous processed foods ................................................
Manufactured animal feeds ......................................................
03
03-1
03-2
03-3
03-4
03-81
03-82
Textile products and apparel ........................................................
Synthetic fibers (12/75 - 100)..................................................
Processed yarns and threads (12/75 - 100) ............................
Gray fabrics (12/75 - 100)......................................................
Finished fabrics (12/75 - 100) ................................................
Apparel....................................................................................
Textile housefurnishings............................................................
183.5
134.7
122.5
138.1
115.7
172.4
206.9
134.8
115.8
172.7
202.7
184.7
136.0
122.4
135.7
116.6
174.4
210.7
04
04-1
04-2
04-3
04-4
Hides, skins, leather, and related products ....................................
Hides and skins........................................................................
i eather....................................................................................
Footwear ................................................................................
Other leather and related products............................................
248.9
370.9
310.6
233.1
218.3
240.9
315.7
284.4
231.9
215.9
245.1
356.6
292.2
232.7
217.5
251.3
398.4
314.2
233.7
218,7
247.8
356.1
298.1
235.5
218.8
251.2
381.5
301.9
236.6
255.4
409.1
317.3
237.5
221.8 222.6
256.9
3928
332.4
236.9
225.3
258.2
'377.5
332.6
2384
230.1
'257.7
'367.4
310.0
'240.7
'236.9
262.4
(2)
322.5
240.5
243.4
264.9
( 2)
337.8
241.1
243.5
265.9
( 2)
337.0
241.1
249.3
262.8
( 2)
321.0
241.0
249.4
05
05-1
05-2
05-3
05-4
05-61
05-7
Fuels and related products and power ..........................................
C oal........................................................................................
Coke ......................................................................................
Gas fuels3 ..............................................................................
Electric power..........................................................................
Crude petroleum4 ....................................................................
Petroleum products, refined 5 ....................................................
574.0
467.3
430.6
760.7
321.6
556.4
674.7
576.5
466.6
430.6
749.2
326.0
549.0
681.7
585.5
467.5
430.6
762.1
331.1
551.4
693.9
590.6
468.7
430.6
772.6
333.6
5668
697.6
593.5
471.3
430.6
786.2
338.3
571.3
696.4
592.9
470.7
430.6
802.2
337.4
579.6
690.4
600.2
475.4
430.6
825.5
333.8
600.6
697.6
615.7
475.3
430.1
844.3
337.6
632.8
717.0
634.6
477.8
430.1
857.1
341.4
704.4
736.9
'667.5
480.8
'430.1
'881.6
'346.2
'842.7
'769.6
692.2
481.3
430.6
867.6
350.4
843.0
822.4
703.8
486.4
430.6
884.5
355.8
842.6
839.1
706.0
487.7
468.5
906.0
360.7
840.0
835.4
704.9
491.8
470.3
931.6
366.9
816.0
827.7
06
06-1
06-21
06-22
06-3
06-4
06-5
06-6
06-7
Chemicals and allied products......................................................
Industrial chemicals6 ................................................................
Prepared pain:..........................................................................
Paint materials ........................................................................
Drugs and pharmaceuticals ......................................................
Fats and oils, inedible ..............................................................
Agricultural chemicals and chemical products ............................
Plastic resins and materials ......................................................
Other chemicals and allied products ..........................................
260.3
324.0
235.3
273.9
174.5
298.0
257.1
279.2
224.5
262.8
329.5
238.8
275.0
174.4
255.8
257.6
287.6
226.9
263.3
328.7
238.8
277.2
175.7
260.0
258.7
285.7
228.5
264.4
330.0
238.8
278.4
176.1
307.6
260.0
281.5
229.0
263.4
327.5
239.3
278.9
176.8
304.5
260.6
276.5
229.1
264.8
330.0
239.3
279.6
178.4
302.0
260.6
276.1
230.9
266.7
332.7
241.4
279.8
181.1
308.2
G1.1
276.2
232.4
268.1
3346
241.4
281.0
182.6
317.1
263.3
274.1
234.1
274.3
'344.5
242.9
284.0
184.7
310.7
'267.6
'214.7
'244.4
'277.6
'352.1
'246.6
'287.0
'187.3
289.7
'271.6
276.1
'245.1
279.4
352.5
246.9
288.3
189.1
295.7
274.8
278.3
247.8
285.8
360.8
248.5
295.2
190.9
312.7
277.3
285.4
256.4
288.2
366.6
250.4
300.1
192.3
312.1
278.6
287.9
255.8
290.3
369.4
250.4
300.8
193.2
303.1
2889
289.7
256.0
07
07-1
07-11
07-12
07-13
07-2
Rubber and plastic products ........................................................
Rubber and rubber products......................................................
Cruoe rubber ..........................................................................
Tires ana tubes........................................................................
Miscellaneous rubber products..................................................
Plastic products (6/78 - 100) ..................................................
217.4
237.5
264.3
236.9
226.6
121.1
217.3
2368
264.1
235.6
226.4
121.4
218.8
239.0
263.4
238.0
229.3
122.0
220.5
240.2
264.3
238.0
232.0
123.2
242.6
267.3
242.1
232.1
123.7
244.6
271.7
245.2
232.0
123.6
223.4
245.0
271.0
245.2
233.3
124.0
223.3
244.9
268.5
245.2
234.0
123.9
224.8
246.2
279.1
240.9
'238.6
125.0
'226.4
'248.5
'281.9
'243.5
'240.4
'125.5
2288
253.0
280.6
248.2
246.5
125.9
230.9
253.9
279.1
250.3
246.8
127.8
232.0
255.3
282.9
250.8
248.6
128.3
233.7
257.8
284.6
250.8
254.2
128.8
08
08-1
08-2
08-3
08-4
Lumber and wood products..........................................................
Lumber....................................................................................
Millwork ..................................................................................
Plywood ..................................................................................
Other wood products................................................................
2889
325.8
260.4
246.5
239.1
279.8
313.0
253.0
241.7
238.7
289.2
327.2
255.9
252.8
236.9
296.1
333.7
260.3
266.0
236.2
292.2
328.0
264.5
252.6
236.8
289.0
320.6
264.5
252.9
236.7
293.4
324.9
270.0
256.6
236.6
299.4
333.0
273.3
263.5
236.2
'296.5 '294.7
'331.3 '326.9
273.6 273.8
251.1 '251.2
238.5 238.1
293.6
324.7
275.7
246.7
239.3
298.1
331.3
276.5
254.4
238.2
297.8
334.9
274.8
248.4
238.1
297.9
335.0
272.9
250.9
239.7
02-3
02-4
02-5
02-6
02-7
02-8
212.8
223.4
205.0
INDUSTRIAL COMMODITIES
See footnotes at end of table.
Digitized for
98FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
122.8
222.0 222.8
2
120.1 122.2
27.
Continued — Producer Price Indexes, by commodity groupings
[1967=100 unless otherwise specified]
Annual
average
1980
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.1
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
Pulp, paper, and allied products....................................................
Pulp, paper, and products, excluding building paper and board . . .
Woodpulp................................................................................
Wastepaper ............................................................................
Paper ......................................................................................
Paperboard..............................................................................
Converted paper and paperboard products................................
Building paper and board..........................................................
249.2
250.6
380.3
208.7
256.8
234.6
238.5
206.2
251.1
252.4
387.7
206.6
257.9
238.9
239.8
208.9
251.7
252.9
388.3
194.0
258.2
237.1
241.2
211.8
252.4
253.8
388.3
193.8
258.6
238.4
242.3
210.3
252.8
254.1
388.2
192.5
258.7
239.5
242.7
254.3
255.6
389.6
193.5
262.1
239.9
2437
212.7
255.0
256.2
390.2
192.3
264.1
241.7
243.5
216.5
256.7
257.9
390.2
191.5
269.4
239.6
244.7
219.7
r 264.4
260.9
390.2
191.5
271.7
r 250.2
r 246.9
219.7
r 267.2
r 264.5
r 390.2
186.1
'272.9
'252.8
'252.1
'225.7
268.4
266.9
392.6
185.1
274.0
255.9
255.1
227.3
270.6
269.1
396.6
184.2
275.5
257.8
257.4
231.9
271.6
270.4
396.6
182.7
276.1
262.3
258.6
236.9
272.7
271.9
396.6
182.9
278.8
262.7
260.1
236.8
Metals and metal products ..........................................................
Iron anc steel ..........................................................................
Steel mill products....................................................................
Nonferrous metals....................................................................
Metal containers ......................................................................
Hardware ................................................................................
Plumbing fixtures and brass fittings............................................
Heating equipment....................................................................
Fabricated structural metal products..........................................
Miscellaneous metal products....................................................
286.4
305.2
302.7
305.0
298.6
240.5
246.7
206.5
270.5
250.0
281.9
303.4
305.8
288.8
302.7
240.5
248.6
205.0
270.1
250.4
282.5
300.6
301.0
292.6
303.0
242.6
249.7
296.2
272.2
251.1
285.1
302.6
301.0
298.4
303.2
243.3
250.4
208.0
273.0
253.2
287.3
304.5
301.0
302.2
303.2
245.9
250.6
208.8
274.1
255.0
291.9
310.5
307.5
309.4
304.4
246.6
250.6
291.1
312.7
309.4
302.1
303.3
249.6
252.3
276.9
256.3
278.0
256.9
290.6
316.4
313.7
293.4
303.3
251.7
254.9
214.0
279.3
257.6
r 294.0
r 323.0
322.6
r 292.1
311.4
254.5
256.7
r 216.6
r 283.1
260.5
'294.0
'323.2
322.9
'287.4
313.8
'258.0
'259.2
'217.6
'285.4
'263.1
296.1
328.0
328.7
285.5
314.1
256.5
259.2
217.6
289.4
265.7
298.7
330.9
331.8
288.0
314.1
256.4
265.2
218.8
293.5
268.1
299.2
330.6
332.0
287.8
314.1
257.3
265.6
221.7
294.3
270.6
298.5
329.9
332.1
284.9
314.1
257.6
268.2
222.9
295.4
270.4
Machinery and equipment ............................................................
Agricultural machinery and equipment........................................
Construction machinery and equipment......................................
Metalworking machinery and equipment ....................................
General purpose machinery and equipment................................
Special Industry machinery and equipment ................................
Electrical machinery and equipment ..........................................
Miscellaneous machinery ..........................................................
239.8
259.2
289.4
274.4
264.6
275.8
201.7
229.9
239.2
257.1
287.6
275.4
264.8
274.3
228.2
241.5
258.6
291.5
278.0
266.1
276.7
203.7
231.1
242.6
259.9
293.4
278.8
267.0
277.1
205.0
232.1
244.7
263.9
295.7
280.2
270.0
283.0
206.0
233.6
246.8
265.4
299.1
282.5
272.5
286.0
207.0
236.5
248.3
271.6
300.1
283.9
274.3
287.7
207.5
238.5
249.8
272.9
301.4
285.7
275.6
290.9
208.9
239.6
r 253.3
276.4
305.9
'289.7
278.6
r 295.6
211.9
243.3
'255.3
'278.4
'310.0
'291.6
'280.2
'299.2
'213.7
'245.2
256.9
278.7
311.3
294.7
281.3
300.9
215.9
245.4
259.2
281.2
314.7
298.1
283.1
303.8
217.8
248.1
260.6
284.4
318.3
299.5
285.3
307.4
218.0
248.4
261.9
285.9
320.0
300.9
286.6
309.1
219.0
249.8
186.5
204.0
235.5
162.1
175.5
91.8
266.5
188.0
206.5
237.2
163.2
175.8
91.7
271.5
188.9
208.0
237.3
163.8
176.3
91.3
275.9
189.5
208.5
237.8
163.9
177.2
91.6
276.2
190.9
209.8
241.4
164.4
177.5
91.5
281.8
191.5
210.9
242.2
165.5
178.5
91.2
281.2
193.1
12-6
Furniture and household durables ................................................
Household furniture..................................................................
Commercial furniture................................................................
Floor coverings ........................................................................
Household appliances ..............................................................
Home electronic equipment ......................................................
Other household durable goods ................................................
187.7
204.8
236.0
163.0
174.2
91.4
278.6
242.4
170.7
179.5
91.0
285.7
r 194.0
212.9
r 246.7
172.3
182.2
91.0
278.9
'195.2
'213.8
'251.6
'171.9
'183.5
'91.3
' 280.8
195.4
214.4
253.2
174.0
183.0
91.3
277.6
196.4
216.9
254.3
176.2
183.8
91.3
276.2
197.5
217.6
256.9
179.9
184.2
91.0
277.6
197.1
218.9
258.1
181.1
184.8
86.9
275.8
13
13
13
13-3
15
15-5
15
151-7
151-8
15-9
Nonmetallic mineral products........................................................
Flat glass ................................................................................
Concrete ingredients ................................................................
Concrete products....................................................................
Structural clay products excluding refractories............................
Refractories ............................................................................
Asphalt roofing ........................................................................
Gypsum products ....................................................................
Glass containers ......................................................................
Other nonmetallic minerals........................................................
283.0
196.5
274.0
273.9
231.5
264.6
396.8
256.3
292.7
394.6
283.4
193.6
273.2
275.8
230.1
265.8
400.9
257.1
294.3
394.8
284.8
194.3
275.9
275.9
230.1
268.7
413.8
253.1
294.3 •
396.9
286.0
199.5
278.6
276.0
229.7
270.6
411.2
251.8
294.3
397.1
286.8
1997
278.9
277.3
230.1
270.6
407.9
251.8
294.6
400.7
288.6
200.7
279.0
277.5
233.3
273.2
408.5
249.5
306.2
402.7
288.7
203.1
279.1
277.7
233.5
273.2
397.1
253.3
306.2
403.3
291.2
203.0
279.7
277.6
233.6
273.2
394.6
252.7
311.4
418.9
296.6
203.9
290.0
286.1
239.5
282.6
394.8
259.6
311.4
418.7
'297.9
204.3
'291.4
286.6
'239.8
'293.5
'389.5
257.3
'311.4
424.7
301.2
204.8
291.9
286.9
245.2
297.1
400.7
257.6
311.5
441.7
310.2
208.1
296.4
289.5
245.6
297.3
416.3
256.8
326.0
479.9
311.7
208.1
297.2
290.7
249.6
304.2
412.4
261.1
334.5
477.6
312.8
208.1
297.1
293.2
249.5
307.3
422.5
260.7
334.5
476.8
14
14
14-4
-1
Transportation equipment (12/68 = 100)......................................
Motor vehicles and equipment ..................................................
Railroad equipment ..................................................................
207.0
208.8
313.1
203.1
205.2
312.2
206.2
208.6
316.4
208.8
211.7
318.0
204.4
205.6
320.0
217.4
218.2
323.3
217.8
218.6
323.6
224.3
226.2
323.9
227.4
228.9
332.5
'229.1
'230.9
'332.5
228.5
229.9
335.8
231.5
233.2
341.8
233.2
235.3
337.1
234.1
236.4
337.4
1E
1E
1E
1E-3
Et—
4
1E-51
1E-9
Miscellaneous products................................................................
Toys, sporting goods, small arms, ammunition............................
Tobacco products ....................................................................
Notions....................................................................................
Photographic equipment and supplies ........................................
Mobile homes (12/74 = 100)....................................................
Other miscellaneous products ..................................................
258.8
198.6
245.7
217.2
202.9
150.2
363.4
258.0
197.5
248.1
217.0
201.7
150.6
360.2
261.7
260.1
201.3
248.2
223.8
200.9
151.4
364.6
265.1
202.3
248.2
223.9
200.9
151.7
381.9
266.0
202.7
249.4
224.0
263.6
265.3
205.7
254.8
225.0
206.6
153.0
370.5
264.3
208.4
254.8
227.2
207.4
153.0
363.3
'264.9
'210.5
'256.1
247.3
209.6
'153.1
'358.1
262.4
210.4
255.4
247.3
265.5
211.7
268.4
248.4
154.4
346.7
155.2
347.8
266.1
212.3
268.4
248.4
212.9
155.3
3484
Jode
Commodity group and subgroup
INDUSTRIAL COMMODITIES
OS
09
09
09
09'-13
09-14
09-15
09
-1
-11
-12
-2
10
10-1
10-13
10-2
10-3
10-4
10-5
10-6
10-7
10-8
11
11-1
1-2
11-3
11-4
11-6
11-7
11-9
15
15
15
-1
-2
12-3
12-4
15-5
-11
-2
=1
-6
-1
-2
1
1980
Continued
201.6
’ Data for February 1981 have been revised to reflect the availability of late reports and corrections
by respondents. All data are subject to revision 4 months after original publication.
Not available.
Prices for natural gas are lagged 1 month.
Includes only domestic production.
Most prices for refined petroleum products are lagged 1 month.
2
3
4
6
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
1981
200.2
248.2
221.7
201.6
151.2
370.9
210.2
210.6 212.0
200.8
153.2
383.4
202.8
254.4
224.1
206.7
152.7
367.0
212.1
211.1 211.6
266.1
212.1
268.4
268.0
212.9
155.5
346.0
6Some prices for industrial chemicals are lagged 1 month.
r=revised.
NOTE: Because of a correction for January 1981 revised data implemented after the release of
data for May 1981, January 1981 figures reported previously may be erroneous. The January data in this
table are corrected.
99
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW August 1981 • Current Labor Statistics: Producer Prices
28.
Producer Price Indexes, for special commodity groupings
[1967=100 unless otherwise specified]
Commodity grouping
All commodities less farm products ......................
All fo o d s .........................................................................
Processed foods ..........................................................
Industrial commodities less fu e ls......................................
Selected textile mill products (Dec. 1975 = 100 )...........
Hosiery ............................................................................
Underwear and nightwear ...............................................
Chemicals and allied products, including synthetic rubber
and manmade fibers and y a rn s ....................................
Pharmaceutical preparations ..........................................
Lumber and wood products, excluding millwork and
other wood products.....................................................
Special metals and metal products.................................
Fabricated metal products...............................................
Copper and copper products ..........................................
Machinery and motive products ......................................
Machinery and equipment, except electrical....................
Agricultural machinery, including tractors........................
Metalworking machinery .................................................
Numerically controlled machine tools (Dec. 1971 = 100)
Total tractors ...................................................................
Agricultural machinery and equipment less p a r ts ...........
Farm and garden tractors less p a rts ...............................
Agricultural machinery excluding tractors less parts . . . .
Industrial valves ..............................................................
Industrial fittings ..............................................................
Abrasive grinding w h e e ls .................................................
Construction m aterials.....................................................
Annual
average
1980
1980
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.'
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
269.6
244.7
246.6
243.5
124.3
123.2
185.4
267.5
237.7
239.9
242.0
123.7
273.8
254.1
255.7
245.6
126.0
125.9
189.3
274.3
254.3
254.9
246.0
126.6
126.4
189.5
278.1
258.8
261.7
249.6
127.5
126.2
189.7
279.4
259.7
261.9
250.3
128.1
126.7
190.3
281.2
254.3
255.5
252.3
129.3
126.4
190.6
285.4
255.8
257.0
255.4
131.8
129.5
199.2
'288.8
'253.7
'253.9
'257.2
'132.5
'130.3
'200.9
291.1
253.2
252.2
258.2
133.1
130.5
201.6
294.3
251.6
250.5
261.4
134.6
134.1
187.1
270.9
245.9
247.3
243.9
125.5
123.5
188.3
202.1
295.6
250.3
250.6
262.6
136.3
134.5
202.3
296.4
252.2
253.4
263.4
136.0
135.6
203.5
250.7
167.1
253.8
167.6
254.2
168.1
254.7
168.4
254.0
168.8
255.4
170.8
257.0
173.7
258.2
174.6
264.8
177.1
'268.3
179.7
270.2
181.8
276.0
184.0
278.7
185.7
281.0
186.5
304.0
258.5
258.2
306.9
256.2
259.9
214.5
231.0
315.5
259.0
261.2
220.4
232.9
307.4
257.8
262.6
214.1
232.1
302.3
265.7
264.3
216.5
239.2
306.5
265.7
265.2
215.7
240.2
314.2
268.6
266.3
230.4
293.5
254.4
258.6
208.5
228.3
244.1
309.2
271.8
269.9
207.4
247.4
'306.0
'272.7
'272.5
'205.0
'249.4
303.0
273.5
274.7
205.2
250.0
310.1
276.4
277.3
207.5
252.6
310.6
277.7
278.7
207.1
254.2
311.5
277.7
279.2
204.3
255.4
263.0
267.3
299.4
225.6
287.3
261.2
268.8
2665
287.8
291.8
(2)
266.4
261.2
264.7
299.7
228.5
284.0
258.7
264.8
265.0
290.1
295.9
261.3
264.2
263.7
266.3
303.3
228.7
288.3
260.8
267.2
265.9
291.1
296.1
261.5
267.0
264.6
268.1
304.5
229.3
291.1
262.2
270.3
266.6
291.3
296.1
261.5
269.6
270.2
272.9
306.5
230.0
295.8
266.5
277.3
269.7
292.4
296.1
261.3
269.3
273.0
274.8
309.6
231.7
298.3
268.3
278.0
272.5
294.6
298.6
263.4
269.9
275.1
280.9
311.2
232.1
299.9
273.7
282.4
279.9
296.0
298.6
273.0
271.9
276.7
281.4
314.1
230.6
301.2
274.3
282.4
280.9
297.8
298.6
273.8
274.1
277.3
285.0
318.9
234.6
305.8
278.0
284.4
285.7
300.7
298.6
<2)
276.7
'279.7
'287.3
'320.5
'235.0
'311.1
'280.2
'287.2
'287.7
'305.5
296.0
( 2)
'277.2
280.9
286.7
323.3
236.1
310.9
280.2
286.8
286.9
306.8
298.8
(2)
279.0
283.5
287.8
325.7
236.1
315.6
281.7
288.5
287.5
310.4
302.7
(2)
283.4
285.5
292.2
327.1
237.7
321.5
285.5
296.8
288.8
311.0
303.0
(2)
284.1
287.0
293.6
328.4
241.7
322.0
286.9
297.2
290.9
312.0
303.0
( 2)
284.8
122.2
222.0
1
Data for February 1981 have been revised to reflect the availability of late reports and corrections
by respondents. All data are subject to revision 4 months after original publication.
29.
1981
June
210.8
2 Not available,
Producer Price Indexes, by durability of product
[1967=100]
Annual
average
1980
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.’
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
Total durable goods ........................................................
Total nondurable g o o d s...................................................
251.5
282.4
248.7
278.8
251.2
285.6
253.1
290.3
253.7
291.2
258.4
293.0
258.6
295.2
261.0
296.3
'262.7
' 302.6
'263.8
'306.8
264.5
310.0
267.4
313.3
268.4
314.1
268.9
315.1
Total manufactures..........................................................
Durable .....................................................................
Nondurable................................................................
261.5
250.8
273.0
259.8
248.5
271.7
263.0
251.0
275.9
265.7
252.7
279.5
265.8
253.1
279.5
269.6
257.8
282.1
270.5
257.9
284.0
272.0
260.4
284.3
'277.3
'262.3
'293.5
'279.3
'263.4
'296.4
281.8
264.0
301.0
284.8
266.9
304.3
286.0
268.0
305.4
286.7
268.7
306.2
Total raw or slightly processed goo ds.............................
Durable .....................................................................
Nondurable................................................................
305.7
278.2
306.7
293.8
249.9
296.1
307.7
255.2
310.6
315.7
265.8
318.4
319.9
274.9
322.2
319.6
282.7
321.3
322.9
285.6
324.6
326.2
284.0
328.2
322.9
275.9
325.3
'330.3
'275.5
'333.3
329.7
280.8
332.2
333.3
286.2
335.6
332.7
281.0
335.4
333.9
272.7
337.3
Commodity grouping
1980
1
Data for February 1981 have been revised to reflect the availability of late reports and corrections
by respondents. All data are subject to revision 4 months after original publication.
r=revised.
30.
1981
NOTE: Because of a correction for January 1981 revised data implemented after the release of
data for May 1981, January 1981 figures reported previously may be erroneous. The January data in this
table are corrected.
Producer Price Indexes for the output of selected SIC industries
[1967=100 unless otherwise specified]
1972
SIC
code
Industry description
Annual
average
1980
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
152.9
331.2
466.7
643.8
252.7
136.0
152.6
322.9
466.0
631.5
250.0
136.6
155.8
331.2
466.9
638.0
254.8
136.6
155.8
329.1
467.9
656.7
255.8
136.6
155.8
335.4
470.3
667.6
258.5
136.6
155.8
338.7
469.7
681.8
261.8
137.2
155.8
343.7
474.2
704.6
263.2
132.1
155.8
325.0
473.9
731.7
264.3
133.7
155.8
297.9
476.1
786.5
270.1
137.1
244.0
230.0
190.9
164.2
255.7
249.1
213.7
214.2
256.3
265.3
233.0
257.1
240.0
226.0
265.8
258.0
247.0
211.3
273.2
251.4
249.5
205.9
273.3
249.0
247.4
'244.7
'235.3
201.9
273.6
1980
1981
Feb.1
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
168.1
324.5
'478.1
'897.9
'272.3
137.1
168.1
335.4
478.8
889.6
274.9
137.1
168.1
354.1
483.9
895.9
277.3
137.1
168.1
347.9
4849
904.6
277.7
137.1
168.1
352.0
488.7
901.0
277.8
137.1
'237.2
'232.9
208.3
273.5
236.1
229.9
203.9
273.6
237.7
227.1
186.7
273.4
243.0
230.4
196.2
273.4
245.5
237.6
198.3
273.6
MINING
1011
1092
1211
1311
1442
1455
Iron ores (12/75 = 100)..................................................
Mercury ores (12/75 = 100) ..........................................
Bituminous coal and lignite ..............................................
Crude petroleum and natural gas ....................................
Construction sand and gravel ..........................................
Kaolin and ball clay (6/76 = 100)....................................
MANUFACTURING
2011
2013
2016
2021
Meatpacking plants ........................................................
Sausages and other prepared meats................................
Poultry dressing plants....................................................
Creamery butter..............................................................
See footnotes at end of table.
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
100
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
220.1
191,9
258.5
212.1
268.5
201.8
274.8
3Gl Continued — Producer Price Indexes for the output of selected SIC industries
[1967 = 100 unless otherwise specified]
1SI72
SIC
code
Annual
average
1980
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
MANUFACTURING - Continued
Cheese natural and processed (12/72 = 100) ..............
Ice cream and frozen desserts (12/72 = 100) ..............
Canned fruits and vegetables........................................
Dehydrated food products (12/73 = 100)......................
Flour mills (12/71 =100) ........................................
Rice milling................................................................
Prepared foods, n.e.c. (12/75 = 100)............................
Raw cane sugar ................................................
Beet sugar ................................................................
Chewing gum ....................................................
204.4
193.3
221.4
160.2
1891
243.4
124.2
414.1
358.0
290.7
202.5
195.2
219.9
156.3
180.8
236.0
116.2
402.4
348.0
282.0
203.4
195.2
222.9
157.7
188.6
225.3
206.8
195.5
223.4
159.6
193.1
219.9
126.6
484.0
365.5
282.4
208.0
196.1
224.3
159.9
196.1
225.9
129.6
458.9
384.5
302.4
213.7
199.5
227.6
162.6
201.5
237.2
129.2
588.2
460.1
322.4
214.9
199.8
231.1
168.6
205.1
265.8
133.3
563.8
512.2
322.9
216.1
207.5
232.0
170.4
199.5
287.2
133.9
402.9
423.3
322.9
215.9
Cottonseed oil m ills......................................................
Soybean oil m ills..........................................................
Animal and marine fats and oils ....................................
Malt ........................................................................
Distilled liquor, except brandy (12/75 = 100) ................
Canned and cured seafoods (12/73 = 100) ..................
Fresh or frozen packaged fish ......................................
Roasted coffee (12/72 = 100)......................................
Macaroni and spaghetti ................................................
Cigarettes....................................................................
192.9
244.3
290.2
249.9
123.0
174.0
366.9
269.3
233.8
254.6
155.1
208.6
238.9
244.1
120.5
175.3
361.2
283.1
230.5
257.4
175.9
363.7
274.5
230.5
257.4
215.1
256.9
297.4
244.1
127.7
177.5
365.2
274.7
230.5
257.4
2329
275.2
307.0
244.1
127.7
178.6
355.0
263.9
239.3
257.4
218.7
279.2
311.0
267.4
127.9
180.0
353.8
257.0
243.6
257.8
231 8
290.5
317.2
267.4
128.5
183.1
353.3
252.5
243.6
263.5
228.0
270.5
311.8
267.4
129.2
183.4
353.9
248.5
243.6
263.6
158.6
279.8
215.8
124.8
106.3
190.1
104.6
135.1
113.6
159.8
278.6
212.9
2251
2254
2257
2261
2262
Cigars ....................................................................
Chewing and smoking tobacco......................................
Weaving mills, cotton (12/72 = 100) ............................
Weaving mills, synthetic (12/77 = 100) ........................
Women’s hosiery, except socks (12/75 = 100)..............
Knit underwear mills ....................................................
Circular knit fabric mills (6/76 = 100)............................
Finishing plants, cotton (6/76 = 100) ............................
Finishing plants, synthetics, silk (6/76 = 100) ................
159.9
279.5
217.7
123.0
105.4
192.6
105.4
137.2
113.8
159.9
279.7
219.0
124.9
108.8
192.9
105.7
137.3
114.1
159.9
279.7
221.9
127.7
108.8
194.1
105.8
136.9
115.3
163.7
295.0
223.4
130.7
108.7
194.2
106.7
139.1
117.3
164.0
295.0
224.2
133.0
109.0
194.7
107.1
139.3
117.9
2272
2261
2262
2264
2268
2311
2321
2322
2323
2327
Tufted carpets and rugs................................................
Yarn mills, except wool (12/71 =100) ..........................
Throwing and winding mills (6/76 = 100) ......................
Thread mills (6/76 = 100)............................................
Cordage and twine (12/77 = 100)................................
Men’s and boys' suits and coats....................................
Men’s and boys’ shirts and nightwear............................
Men’s and boys’ underwear..........................................
Men’s and boys’ neckwear (12/75 = 100) ....................
Men’s and boys’ separate trousers................................
138.1
203.5
115.5
139.1
123.6
137.7
202.9
115.0
143.0
125.0
214.9
206.5
138.3
204.3
115.8
143.1
125.0
214.9
206.7
138.3
206.2
117.2
143.1
125.0
214.9
207.7
138.8
207.9
118.2
143.8
127.1
216.2
208.0
211.1 211.2 212.8 212.8
140.0
209.9
118.4
143.9
129.2
216.3
208.6
212.8
112.4
175.3
112.4
175.3
112.4
175.3
112.4
180.2
2328
2331
2335
2341
2342
2361
2381
2394
2396
2421
20:22
2024
2033
2034
2041
2044
2048
20(51
20(53
20(57
2074
2075
2077
20153
2085
2091
2092
2095
2098
2111
2121
2131
22-1
2221
Industry description
1980
121.2
105.4
190.4
105.0
134.6
112.1
137.4
202.8
115.8
142.9
125.0
212.6 211.6
204.4
208.0
122.2
381.8
342.3
282.4
191.3
37.4
274.5
244.1
121.0
1981
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
'215.6
217.5
233.3
174.1
203.8
289.6
r 132.6
418.0
414.5
323.0
'237.4
'171.3
'198.4
289.6
'129.3
367.1
'398.1
323.0
241.7
172.9
195.1
298.0
127.0
318.8
375.0
323.1
218.1
211.4
245.0
174.5
201.5
300.9
128.8
275.7
360.7
323.1
218.0
212.4
246.9
175.3
199.4
300.3
130.2
224.8
351.3
303.1
218.0
212.4
250.0
175.1
199.3
300.3
127.8
263.3
358.1
303.1
221.2
272.0
310.8
2861
129.2
187.3
374.9
238.2
243.6
263.6
193.7
'252.5
287.2
286.1
133.9
'187.1
'366.7
238.3
243.6
'264.1
204.4
253.0
284.2
286.1
133.9
187.6
385.7
238.3
243.6
263.9
218.3
257.7
301.7
286.1
133.9
187.8
394.9
238.5
243.6
278.3
216.6
258.1
304.3
286.1
134.3
187.4
379.7
238.6
246.6
278.3
212.3
248.2
291.3
286.1
134.6
187.5
377.0
238.6
246.6
278.3
165.1
298.8
225.0
132.5
108.6
195.0
107.5
140.2
120.5
165.1
298.7
r 227.9
131.9
109.1
205.6
109.3
142.4
121.7
'165.3
'320.7
'230.9
'132.3
109.2
'208.7
'109.6
144.5
'123.1
164.2
310.4
232.3
132.9
109.0
209.4
107.8
144.6
124.2
165.6
320.4
235.2
134.2
114.2
209.7
109.3
146.8
124.8
165.6
320.4
236.3
135.3
114.3
209.9
109.0
147.0
126.4
165.6
320.8
234.6
136.4
115.7
209.9
108.9
146.3
126.2
145.7
215.1
152.5
112.4
180.2
'147.8
218.1
'123.2
144.3
129.3
219.7
'207.3
'229.1
115.4
'185.3
150.2
143.9
129.3
216.1
209.5
212.9
115.4
180.3
r 148.1
216.9
123.2
144.1
129.3
218.2
206.3
224.9
115.4
185.3
129.5
148.4
130.9
220.4
205.0
230.9
115.4
180.4
130.6
150.8
132.7
220.5
205.3
230.9
115.4
185.7
156.0
224.1
134.9
150.9
134.3
220.4
204.9
230.9
115.4
185.8
157.0
225.9
138.1
151.1
134.3
221.5
205.5
230.6
115.4
186.1
244.3
114.0
116.3
157.1
129.1
115.1
272.1
125.1
131.0
226.8
244.4
115.4
116.3
158.1
129.1
117.4
272.1
126.1
131.0
233.5
242.2
116.3
116.5
165.5
131.7
118.1
284.9
126.8
131.0
r 232.3
'242.2
'116.3
'116.9
'167.5
'132.8
'118.9
289.1
'126.8
131.0
'229.6
241.9
115.1
117.9
168,0
134.5
118,0
289.1
128.4
131.0
228.1
246.2
115.2
118.2
169.5
134.5
119.2
289.1
129.9
131.0
231.9
247.4
115.2
118.7
169.8
134.5
119.4
292.1
130.6
131.0
233.6
248.2
117.1
121.4
171.1
136.6
119.4
292.1
130.6
131.0
233.9
120.1
Feb.1
210.1 210.6 210.6
220.6 221.0
175.3
205.1
208.5
112.4
175.1
Men’s and boys’ work clothing ......................................
Women’s and misses' blouses and waists (6/78 = 100) .
Women’s and misses’ dresses (12/77 = 100)................
Women’s and children’s underwear (12/72 = 100) ........
Brassieres and allied garments (12/75 = 100) ..............
Children's dresses and blouses (12/77 = 100)..............
Fabric dress and work gloves........................................
Canvas and related products (12/77 = 100)..................
Automotive and apparel trimmings (12/77 = 100)..........
Sawmills and planing mills (12/71 = 1 0 0 )......................
2405
110.3
114.7
154.4
126.5
109.9
268.6
123.8
122.4
227.7
242.6
107.8
114.0
155.0
126.6
108.0
271.1
123.4
122.3
218.1
244.8
111.4
114.0
155.4
127.8
112.7
271.1
123.4
122.3
228.9
244.1
243.9
115.4
156.9
129.0
112.7
271.1
123.4
122.3
234.2
115.4
155.4
129.0
271.1
123.9
122.3
229.0
244.3
114.0
116.3
156.0
129.0
112.7
271.1
125.1
122.3
223.2
2436
2439
244B
2451
2492
2511
2512
2515
2521
2611
Softwood veneer and plywood (12/75 = 100)................
Structural wood members, n.e.c. (12/75 = 100) ............
Wood pallets and skids (12/75 = 100)..........................
Mobile homes (12/74 = 100)........................................
Particleboard (12/75 = 100) ........................................
Wood household furniture (12/71 = 100) ......................
Upholstered household furniture (12/71 = 100)..............
Mattresses and bedsprings............................................
Wood office furniture....................................................
Pulp mills (12/73 = 100)..............................................
144.6
155.6
160.1
150.3
161.5
183.8
163.6
179.1
235.2
240.0
140 5
152.1
159.7
150 7
171.7
183.5
162.5
176.0
2340
243.9
150.4
152.1
157.1
151.3
168.7
185.1
166.1
180.8
235.5
244.5
160.7
152.2
156.0
151.4
169.4
186.4
166.2
186.4
235.5
244.5
149.6
155.5
154.9
151.8
163.7
187.7
166.2
186.4
235.5
244.4
149.1
156.2
154.6
153.2
159.8
188.1
167.7
186.5
239.7
246.1
152.3
157.0
154.7
152.7
163.6
189.1
168.6
186.5
239.7
246.8
158.2
157.1
154.1
153.1
165.9
190.0
170.5
186.5
240.9
246.8
149.8
157.1
153.8
153.1
163.9
'210.1
169.9
186.3
244.1
246.9
'149.3
157.0
152.8
'153.2
'170.3
'192.1
'170.1
'188.3
'250.4
'246.9
145.3
157.1
152.7
154.5
171.0
193.4
170.0
192.1
253.5
249.1
151.2
158.3
153.0
155.3
179.6
195.3
173.4
194.5
254.6
253.4
145.8
158.2
153.1
155.4
183.2
196.2
173.4
194.5
255.5
253.5
147.5
158.2
153.0
155.6
181.0
197.1
175.2
194.6
255.6
253.5
2621
2631
2647
2654
2655
2812
2821
2822
2824
2873
Paper mills, except building (12/74 = 100)....................
Paperboard mills (12/74 = 100) ..................................
Sanitary paper products................................................
Sanitary food containers ..............................................
Fiber cans, drums, and similar products (12/75 = 100) ..
Alkalies and chlorine (12/73 = 100)..............................
Plastics materials and resins (6/76 = 100)....................
Synthetic rubber ....................................................
Organic fiber, noncellulosic............................................
Nitrogenous fertilizers (12/75 = 100) ............................
145.5
139.0
3220
216.0
150.6
247.5
143.0
255.8
132.5
124.4
146.2
141.2
321 2
217.2
150.6
250.0
146.9
259.6
132.8
123.4
146.4
140.3
327.4
218.2
155.2
251.9
146.1
259.8
133.4
122.6
146.7
141.1
331.1
220.3
155.2
257.3
144.4
260.5
134.9
123.7
146.7
141.7
331.1
222.3
155.2
257.2
141.5
260.1
137.1
127.2
148.2
142.3
332.6
222.3
155.5
257.9
141.5
260.9
138.0
130.3
149.2
143.2
334.7
222.3
155.5
265.1
141.5
260.4
138.7
130.0
150.7
142.4
338.2
225.3
155.0
262.3
140.9
262.5
138.9
131.8
152.0
148.2
338.3
232.0
157.7
r 277.9
'142.4
275.9
144.0
'135.0
'152.6
'149.2
'342.5
'235.2
'160.6
'299.2
143.5
'280.7
'144.7
'138.1
153.5
151.0
344.1
239.1
159.7
292.4
144.4
282.8
148.1
141.6
154.3
152.0
344.2
240.4
159.9
293.6
148.1
286.9
150.8
147.1
154.8
154.1
345.4
240.4
160.9
300.7
149.7
291.9
156.9
148.5
156.2
154.3
345.4
243.5
160.9
309.6
150.6
295.1
157.7
147.2
2874
28715
2892
2911
2951
2952
3011
Phosphatic fertilizers ....................................................
Fertilizers, mixing only ..................................................
Explosives ..................................................................
Petroleum refining (6/76 = 100) ..................................
Paving mixtures and blocks (12/75 = 100)....................
Asphalt felts and coatings (12/75) = 100) ....................
Tires and inner tubes (12/73 = 100) ............................
237.3
246.9
269.7
248.6
171.4
173.4
203.1
235.7
249.0
273.7
253.3
172.6
175.0
234.8
249.8
273.8
255.9
174.7
180.9
204.1
240.6
249.3
273.4
256.9
175.1
179.8
204.1
240.8
250.2
273.3
256.4
176.0
178.3
207.4
239.3
250.6
273.5
254.6
176.2
178.6
209.9
239.6
252.9
272.9
256.3
176.2
173.5
209.9
245.4
252.2
282,8
261.4
181.5
172.5
'247.9
'255.8
288.8
268.3
183.1
172.4
207.0
'248.2
'266.8
'295.4
'279.5
185.4
170.0
'209.3
250.8
269.1
303.8
298.2
189.1
174.3
213.5
249.0
271.8
324.8
305.7
199.0
180.6
215.2
248.6
273.7
314.5
304.3
198.8
178.7
215.8
250.9
273.0
311.4
302.6
198.4
183.1
215.9
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
112.6
202.2
112.6 112.6
112.2
210.1
101
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW August 1981 • Current Labor Statistics: Producer Prices
30 . Continued— Producer Price Indexes for the output of selected SIC industries
[1967 = 100 unless otherwise specified]
Annual
1972
SIC
code
Industry description
3021
3031
3079
3111
3142
3143
3144
3171
3211
3221
Rubber and plastic footwear (12/71 - 100) ....................................
Reclaimed rubber (12/73 -1 0 0 )......................................................
Miscellaneous plastic products (6/78 - 100)....................................
Leather tanning and tinisning (12/77 - 100) ....................................
House slippers (12/75 - 100) ........................................................
Men’s footwear, except athletic (12/75 - 100) ................................
Women's footwear, except athletic ..................................................
Women’s handbags and purses (12/75 - 100) ................................
Flat glass (12/71 - 100) ................................................................
Glass containers ............................................................................
177.9
184.7
121.7
146.6
149.1
159.8
213.5
137.9
161.3
292.6
3241
3251
3253
3255
3259
3261
3262
3263
3269
3271
Cement, hydraulic ..........................................................................
Brick and structural clay tile ............................................................
Ceramic wall and floor tile (12/75 - 100) ........................................
Clay refractories ............................................................................
Structural clay products, n.e.c............................................................
Vitreous plumbing fixtures................................................................
Vitreous china food utensils..............................................................
Fine earthenware food utensils ........................................................
Pottery products, n.e.c. (12/75 - 100) ............................................
Concrete block and brick ................................................................
3273
3274
3275
3291
3297
3312
3313
3316
3317
3321
1981
1980
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.’
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
173.8
186.5
134.6
145.4
158.5
213.8
140.9
158.9
294.2
181.8
186.5
122.7
137.7
151.1
158.5
214.2
140.9
159.5
294.2
181.9
185.9
123.9
147.9
151.1
159.5
214.3
140.0
162.6
294.2
182.0
185.9
124.4
140.0
151.1
161.5
215.2
140.9
162.8
294.2
182.0
184.0
124.2
( 2)
153.5
161.6
217.1
140.9
163.8
306.1
182.4
184.1
124.6
149.3
158.2
162.4
217.1
140.9
166.4
306.1
182.3
186.7
124.5
156.6
154.9
162.4
217.1
140.9
166.3
311.4
182.8
190.4
125.4
157.0
( 2)
r 164.8
217.8
149.5
167.1
311.4
'183.4
'190.4
'125.4
145.5
( 2>
'166.5
'220.2
149.5
167.5
311.4
184.4
195.1
126.2
151.4
183.7
195.2
128.4
158.6
( 2)
167.4
218.8
149.7
168.1
311.4
( 2)
168.4
218.7
149.7
171.7
325.9
184.0
195.5
128.8
158.3
(2)
168.4
219.3
158.4
171.7
334.4
184.1
185.6
129.3
150.7
<2)
168.5
219.0
158.4
171.8
334.4
310.8
277.3
122.5
273.6
202.7
234.8
317.3
295.5
152.6
257.3
313.8
278.5
117.6
275.9
204.4
2358
318.6
294.7
152.7
259.4
313.3
278.5
117.6
279.2
204.7
237.2
318.3
294.6
152.7
259.5
313.1
277.6
117.6
279.5
205.0
240.4
318.3
294.6
152.7
259.5
312.3
278.5
117.6
279.7
204.8
241.1
318.7
296.4
153.3
260.5
311.8
282.6
310.5
282.9
310.5
282.9
280.2
204.9
241.5
327.4
297.9
155.4
259.4
280.7
205.0
242.6
327.4
297.9
155.5
259.4
280.7
205.1
245.0
327.4
297.9
155.5
259.4
324.3
286.6
127.1
291.5
209.5
244.7
327.4
298.6
155.5
264.1
'324.3
'286.1
127.1
'305.2
'212.8
248.9
327.4
'298.6
'155.5
'265.0
321.3
296.2
127.2
309.9
213.5
249.4
328.0
307.6
158.4
263.2
329.0
297.0
127.2
310.3
213.1
252.0
328.2
307.6
158.5
267.3
329.2
298.3
129.6
312.7
224.3
252.5
336.6
309.1
160.5
271.1
329.0
298.3
129.6
313.9
224.3
255.8
336.6
309.1
160.5
271.2
Ready-mixed concrete ....................................................................
Lime (12/75 - 100)........................................................................
Gypsum products............................................................................
Abrasive products (12/71 - 100)....................................................
Nonclay refractories (12/74 - 100) ................................................
Blast furnaces and steel mills ..........................................................
Electrometallurgical products (12/75 - 100) ....................................
Cold finishing of steel shapes ..........................................................
Steel pipes and tubes......................................................................
Gray iron foundries (12/68 - 100) ..................................................
279.9
157.7
256.7
282.5
157.7
257.5
213.5
161.2
313.5
118.7
288.2
290.4
282.5
282.6
159.6
253.5
215.2
162.8
3086
117.1
282.2
292.4
283.0
282.6
160.2
252.3
215.7
164.9
308.5
117.1
282.3
292.6
283.2 _
283.6
158.8
252.2
217.1
164.8
308.6
117.2
282.3
292.6
283.3
282.7
160.8
250.0
218.8
167.8
314.8
117.3
288.1
294.2
289.7
282.8
160.8
253.6
282.9
161.8
253.1
167.5
316.6
117.3
288.8
3024
290.1
167.6
320.7
117.3
293.3
308.4
290.7
294.8
165.7
259.9
'222.8
172.4
328.7
119.9
302.8
315.5
'295.2
295.4
'171.7
257.6
221.7
177.5
328.9
'120.0
303.1
'316.3
'296.1
296.1
172.8
257.9
229.7
179.0
334.0
298.6
172.4
257.1
232.0
178.9
336.6
299.5
172.4
261.4
233.0
185.9
337.6
306.1
326.2
293.0
308.3
333.1
296.9
308.3
334.2
298.3
301.9
173.1
260.9
233.8
189.0
337.6
120.7
308.5
336.3
298.6
3333
3334
3351
3353
3354
3355
3411
3425
3431
3465
Primary zinc.................................................................................... '
Primary aluminum ..........................................................................
Copper rolling and drawing..............................................................
Aluminum sheet plate and foil (12/75 = 100) ..................................
Aluminum extruded products (12/75 - 100) ....................................
Aluminum rolling, drawing, n.e.c. (12/75 - 100)................................
Metal cans ....................................................................................
Hand saws and saw blades (12/72 - 100)......................................
Metal sanitary ware ........................................................................
Automotive stampings (12/75 - 100) ..............................................
270.5
297.9
227.5
158.2
167.7
146.2
291.6
182.1
248.3
136.9
268.6
290.1
255.9
312.1
264.0
313.0
269.9
325.6
165.1
176.4
151.1
297.3
190.5
253.8
141.2
172.1
177.3
157.5
304.7
197.6
256.6
144.5
173.9
180.6
157.5
304.7
197.8
262.9
145.2
321.6
336.0
211.9
174.4
180.7
157.5
304.7
199.8
263.7
145.3
331.0
334.4
161.5
173.2
150.7
297.9
186.8
251.5
140.2
'300.0
'332.3
'215.3
170.7
177.1
'157.1
303.0
'196.3
'256.4
'143.9
308.0
334.6
157.6
168.2
147.5
296.1
185.8
251.4
140.1
'300.3
'331.7
'218.7
169.3
176.8
155.3
302.1
195.4
256.0
143.0
296.0
334.8
158.2
168.3
147.4
295.6
183.5
250.9
137.8
282.0
328.5
222.9
163.3
176.3
151.2
297.2
187.2
252.2
140.9
288.7
328.0
157.8
167.7
146.7
294.9
181.9
249.9
137.8
255.9
312.2
226.2
157.6
168 4
147.6
295.9
185.4
251.4
139.8
3482
3493
3494
3498
3519
3531
3532
3533
3534
3542
Small arms ammunition (12/75 - 100) ............................................
Steel springs, except w ire................................................................
Valves and pipe fittings (12/71 - 100) ............................................
Fabricated pipe and fittings..............................................................
Internal combustion engines, n.e.c......................................................
Construction machinery (12/76 - 100) ............................................
Mining machinery (12/72 - 100) ....................................................
Oilfield machinery and equipment ....................................................
Elevators and moving stairways ......................................................
Machine tools, metal forming types (12/71 - 100)............................
145.6
230.3
230.0
315.5
275.4
141.1
2585
338.1
239.3
279.5
144.6
230.3
231.8
313.8
271.7
140.3
258.2
337.4
242.8
279.2
145.1
230.3
232.5
317.2
276.8
141.8
259.4
342.6
244.2
284.3
147.3
230.8
232.7
317.2
278.6
142.7
262.0
345.7
243.8
285.3
145.3
231.9
233.3
319.9
283.2
143.8
264.1
347.3
246.4
285.6
145.8
233.0
235.8
325.0
285.2
146.0
266.0
352.9
248.3
286.8
146.3
233.3
236.9
329.9
289.1
146.6
268.0
358.4
248.8
287.4
160.9
234.3
238.3
329.9
289.9
147.5
270.0
360.9
249.5
292.0
157.9
238.4
240.2
335.7
298.2
'150.0
'272.5
'367.0
250.3
297.5
'157.8
'239.2
'242.1
335.7
'299.4
'151.4
273.5
'374.2
250.3
'298.0
163.2
239.4
243.4
338.5
298.5
151.5
275.7
3758
250.3
301.8
163.2
240.6
245.9
358.8
304.2
154.3
279.1
380.7
251.1
302.9
163.2
241.6
246.5
359.9
304.2
155.0
279.6
382.8
251.2
304.4
163.2
241.8
247.0
361.6
305.7
156.6
280.5
398.4
251.2
305.6
3546
3552
3553
3576
3592
3612
3623
3631
3632
3633
Power driven hand tools (12/76 - 100) ..........................................
Textile machinery (12/69 - 100) ....................................................
Woodworking machinery (12/72 - 100) ..........................................
Scales and balances, excluding laboratory........................................
’Carburetors, pistons, rings, valves (6/76 - 100) ..............................
Transformers..................................................................................
Welding apparatus, electric (12/72 - 100) ......................................
Household cooking equipment (12/75 - 100) ..................................
Household refrigerators, freezers (6/76 - 100)................................
Household laundry equipment (12/73 - 100) ..................................
132.2
216.6
212.5
215.0
156.6
184.9
209.9
133.1
121.4
162.0
131.1
217.0
213.7
208.6
153.5
182.9
133.5
221.7
215.9
2154
158.6
186.0
134.5
216.0
226.2
159.3
190.6
163.6
136.7
224.5
217.7
226.9
165.2
193.0
214.9
135.8
125.1
166.6
137.9
226.0
221.5
217.9
167.6
193.3
215.8
137.5
125.1
167.4
'142.6
'235.7
222.5
'220.5
168.9
194.9
218.9
140.1
127.5
'169.8
144.8
236.6
225.0
224.2
170.8
204.4
161.2
136.6
223.8
217.0
226.3
164.9
193.9
214.4
134.8
124.1
166.1
'144.9
'235.0
223.1
162.3
135.3
222.3
216.0
226.2
160.1
190.7
211.7
134.7
123.3
165.5
140.9
126.2
170.9
146.4
241.0
225.8
225.9
171.9
206.2
223.8
140.3
128.1
171.1
147.0
241.1
225.7
230.2
171.9
207.9
225.4
140.5
128.1
173.8
147.1
242.4
226.6
230.2
176.3
209.6
226.8
140.9
129.4
173.8
3635
3636
3641
3644
3646
3648
3671
3674
3675
3676
Household vacuum cleaners............................................................
Sewing machines (12/75 - 100) ....................................................
Electric lamps ................................................................................
Noncurrent-carrying wiring devices (12/72 - 100)............................
Commercial lighting fixtures (12/75 - 100) ......................................
Lighting equipment, n.e.c. (12/75 - 100)..........................................
Electron tubes receiving type ..........................................................
Semiconductors and related devices ................................................
Electronic capacitors (12/75 - 100)................................................
Electronic resistors (12/75 - 100) ..................................................
154.4
129.1
260.3
219.7
139.3
139.9
251.8
90.7
162.7
134.2
155.8
129.2
258.1
220.4
139.2
140.7
255.2
92.0
160.5
135.2
158.4
130.0
266.3
220.3
139.2
140.7
255.5
92.1
168.6
135.3
158.5
130.0
268.1
220.7
140.4
140.9
255.6
91.8
172.6
136.3
158.6
130.0
269.2
220.9
142.3
143.2
255.7
92.0
174.0
136.9
158.8
130.3
268.7
142.8
143.3
264.6
91.8
170.1
137.7
158.8
130.3
270.2
223.7
143.1
144.7
264.8
91.2
170.2
137.8
159.1
130.3
266.2
229.2
144.7
145.0
272.7
91.6
170.3
137.8
159.1
130.3
265.8
233.1
145.1
146.3
284.3
91.1
170.3
'139.0
'156.3
'130.3
271.2
'236.3
'148.0
146.8
'284.4
90.8
'171.1
'139.9
151.8
131.3
272.6
242.9
151.9
152.7
285.1
91.7
172.5
139.5
151.8
131.2
275.5
244.9
156.6
153.2
285.1
91.7
171.4
139.7
151.9
153.1
275.2
245.2
156.7
153.3
285.2
91.2
171.0
140.9
152.0
153.1
275.1
252.9
156.7
153.7
299.2
90.1
1683
141.2
3678
3692
3711
3942
3944
3955
3995
3996
Electronic connectors (12/75 - 100) ..............................................
Primary batteries, dry and wet ........................................................
Motor vehicles and car bodies (12/75 - 100) ..................................
Dolls (12/75 - 100) ......................................................................
Games, toys, and children’s vehicles................................................
Carbon paper and inked ribbons (12/75 - 100)................................
Burial caskets (6/76 - 100)............................................................
Hard surface floor coverings (12/75 - 100) ....................................
148.1
176.5
136.7
127.4
205.2
132.8
131.2
143.7
148.7
176.4
134.6
128.4
205.9
136.4
132.2
143.3
148.9
176.4
137.3
128.4
206.0
135.0
132.2
146.1
149.1
176.7
137.9
128.4
206.0
135.0
132.2
146.6
149.6
176.8
131.4
128.4
206.6
135.0
132.9
146.6
149.7
176.9
144.5
128.3
207.0
135.0
132.9
146.6
149.7
177.0
144.6
128.3
207.0
135.0
132.9
146.6
149.7
176.9
144.0
128.3
207.1
135.0
135.0
146.6
152.2
179.0
145.3
130.7
213.9
133.0
135.0
148.6
'153.5
183.3
'145.7
'132.3
'220.2
136.4
' 135.0
148.6
154.1
184.2
144.7
129.1
217.2
136.5
138.1
148.7
153.8
184.2
147.7
130.6
219.2
136.9
138.1
151.5
152.9
182.5
148.9
130.6
219.8
136.9
138.3
151.5
153.7
181.0
149.9
130.6
219.9
140.4
138.3
151.5
1980
1r=revised. All data are subject to revision 4 months after original publication.
2Not available.
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
102
Federal Reserve
Bank of St. Louis
212.6
161.1
310.5
117.7
284.0
290.9
282.5
122.2
220.2 222.8
222.1
211.0 212.1 212.1
134.9 134.4
134.7
122.0 122.2 122.2
120.1 120.1 120.1
220.2 222.0
note: January
221.8
220.2 220.6
222.8
221.1
'170.9
'197.1
'220.9
'141.0
'127.5
'170.2
120.0 120.8 120.6
212.0 212.1
221.1
1981 figures reported previously may be erroneous; these are corrected.
212.1
176.2
180.8
157.4
304.7
199.8
263.9
145.6
PRODUCTIVITY DATA
P r o d u c t iv it y d ata are com piled by the Bureau of Labor
Statistics from establishm ent data and from estim ates of com
pensation and output supplied by the U .S. D epartm ent of
C om m erce and the Federal R eserve Board.
Definitions
Output is the constant dollar gross domestic product produced in a
given period. Indexes of output per hour of labor input, or labor pro
ductivity, measure the value of goods and services produced per hour
of labor. Compensation per hour includes wages and salaries of em
ployees plus employers’ contributions for social insurance and private
benefit plans. The data also include an estimate of wages, salaries, and
supplementary payments for the self-employed, except for nonfinancial corporations, in which there are no self-employed. Real com
pensation per hour is compensation per hour adjusted by the
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers.
Unit labor cost measures the labor compensation cost required to
produce one unit of output and is derived by dividing compensation
by output. Unit nonlabor payments include profits, depreciation, in
terest, and indirect taxes per unit of output. They are computed by
subtracting compensation of all persons from the current dollar gross
domestic product and dividing by output. In these tables, Unit
nonlabor costs contain all the components of unit nonlabor payments
except unit profits. Unit profits include corporate profits and invento
ry valuation adjustments per unit of output.
The implicit price deflator is derived by dividing the current dollar
estimate of gross product by the constant dollar estimate, making the
deflator, in effect, a price index for gross product of the sector reported.
31.
The use of the term “man-hours” to identify the labor component
of productivity and costs, in tables 31 through 34, has been discontin
ued. Hours of all persons is now used to describe the labor input of
payroll workers, self-employed persons, and unpaid family workers.
Output per all-employee hour is now used to describe labor productiv
ity in nonfinancial corporations where there are no self-employed.
Notes on the data
In the private business sector and the nonfarm business sector, the
basis for the output measure employed in the computation of output
per hour is Gross Domestic Product rather than Gross National
Product. Computation of hours includes estimates of nonfarm and
farm proprietor hours.
Output data are supplied by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S.
Department of Commerce, and the Federal Reserve Board. Quarterly
manufacturing output indexes are adjusted by the Bureau of Labor
Statistics to annual estimates of output (gross product originating)
from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Compensation and hours data
are from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Bureau of Labor
Statistics.
Beginning with the September 1976 issue of the Review, tables 3134 were revised to reflect changeover to the new series— private busi
ness sector and nonfarm business sector— which differ from the
previously published total private economy and nonfarm sector in
that output imputed for owner-occupied dwellings and the household
and institutions sectors, as well as the statistical discrepancy, are
omitted. For a detailed explanation, see J. R. Norsworthy and L. J.
Fulco, “New sector definitions for productivity series,” M on th ly L a b o r
Review, October 1976, pages 40-42.
Annual indexes of productivity, hourly compensation, unit costs, and prices, selected years, 1950-80
[1977 = 100]
Item
Private business sector:
Output per hour of all persons ........................
Compensation per hour ..................................
Real compensation per hour............................
Unit labor c o s t................................................
Unit nonlabor payments ..................................
Implicit price deflator ......................................
Nonfarm business sector:
Output per hour of all persons ........................
Compensation per hour ..................................
Real compensation per hour............................
Unit labor c o s t................................................
Unit nonlabor payments ..................................
Implicit price deflator ......................................
Nonfinancial corporations:
Output per hour of all employees ....................
Compensation per hour ..................................
Real compensation per hour............................
Unit labor c o s t................................................
Unit nonlabor payments ..................................
Implicit price deflator ......................................
Manufacturing:
Output per hour of all persons ........................
Compensation per hour ..................................
Real compensation per hour............................
Unit labor co s t................................................
Unit nonlabor payments ..................................
Implicit price deflator ......................................
1980
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
50.3
58.2
26.3
59.6
45.2
47.8
46.1
65.1
33.9
69.4
52.1
50.8
51.7
78.2
41.7
80.0
53.3
57.8
54.8
86.1
58.2
90.8
67.6
63.4
66.2
94.8
71.3
97.3
75.2
75.6
75.3
92.7
78.0
95.9
84.2
78.9
82.4
94.8
85.5
96.3
90.2
90.7
90.4
97.9
92.9
98.8
94.8
94.4
94.7
99.8
108.4
100.7
108.6
105.1
107.4
99.4
119.2
99.5
119.9
110.9
116.9
99.1
131.1
96.4
132.3
118.4
127.6
62.7
28.3
63.9
45.1
47.9
46.0
68.2
86.7
58.6
91.5
67.6
64.0
66.4
95.3
71.7
97.7
75.2
71.9
74.1
93.1
78.4
96.4
84.3
76.1
81.6
95.0
35.6
73.0
52.3
50.5
51.7
80.4
42.8
82.2
53.2
58.2
54.9
96.8
90.5
88.9
89.9
98.1
93.0
99.0
94.8
94.0
94.5
99.8
108.5
100.7
108.7
103.6
107.0
99.0
118.8
99.2
120.0
108.5
116.2
98.6
130.5
96.0
132.4
117.6
127.4
( 1)
( ')
(’)
n
n
O
(’ )
(’ )
( 1)
(’ )
(’ )
( ')
66.3
36.3
74.2
54.7
54.6
54.7
79.9
43.0
82.6
53.8
60.8
56.2
85.4
58.3
91.0
68.3
63.1
66.5
94.5
70.8
96.5
74.9
70.7
73.4
91.3
77.6
95.4
85.1
75.7
81.8
94.4
85.5
96.3
90.6
90.9
90.7
97.4
92.5
98.5
95.0
95.0
95.0
100.4
108.2
100.5
107.8
103.8
106.4
100.3
118.6
99.0
118.2
108.3
114.8
130.4
95.9
129.4
117.3
125.2
49.5
21.5
54.1
43.4
55.1
46.8
56.5
28.8
65.2
51.0
59.4
53.4
60.1
36.7
75.1
61.1
62.0
61.3
74.6
42.9
82.3
57.4
70.3
61.2
79.2
57.6
89.9
72.7
93.1
69.1
94.2
74.2
71.6
73.4
90.9
76.4
93.9
84.1
70.4
80.1
93.5
85.5
96.3
91.4
88.5
90.6
97.7
92.4
98.3
94.6
95.1
94.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.9
108.2
100.5
107.3
104.7
106.5
101.9
118.7
99.1
116.5
105.7
113.4
20.0
504
39.8
43.5
41.0
56.2
21.8
55.0
38.8
42.8
40.2
66.0
70.7
86.0
100.8
101.4
131.2
96.5
129.4
(’ )
<1)
1Not available.
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
103
M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW August 1981 • Current Labor Statistics: Productivity
32 . Annual changes in productivity, hourly compensation, unit costs, and prices, 1970-80
1970
Private business sector:
Output per hour of all persons ............................
Compensation per h o u r......................................
Real compensation per hour................................
Unit labor cost....................................................
Unit nonlabor payments......................................
Implicit price deflator ..........................................
Nonfarm business sector:
Output per hour of all persons ............................
Compensation per hour ......................................
Real compensation per hour................................
Unit labor cost....................................................
Unit nonlabor payments......................................
Implicit price deflator ..........................................
Nonfinancial corporations:
Output per hour of all employees........................
Compensation per hour ......................................
Real compensation per hour................................
Unit labor cost....................................................
Unit nonlabor payments......................................
Implicit price deflator ..........................................
Manufacturing:
Output per hour of all persons ............................
Compensation per hour ......................................
Real compensation per hour................................
Unit labor cost....................................................
Unit nonlabor payments......................................
Implicit price deflator ..........................................
1971
1972
3.6
3.5
6.5
3.1
2.9
4.5
3.4
0.9
7.4
1.4
6.4
0.7
4.5
6.6
2.2
2.9
7.6
4.4
0.3
7.0
3.3
1.0
6.6
1.1
4.8
0.4
6.8
0.8
6.6
2.2
3.7
6.7
3.3
3.1
7.4
4.5
2.8
3.2
3.0
4.8
6.5
3.0
5.8
2.5
2.1
1.6
6.3
0.5
4.4
-0.2
6.8
0.8
7.0
-2.5
4.3
2.7
6.1
6.1
1.8
0.0
11.2
5.0
5.4
2.0
0.3
0.8
3.1
0.5
1974
1975
2.7
-2.3
9.4
-1.4
11.9
4.4
9.4
2.3
9.6
0.4
7.2
15.0
9.7
8.6
7.7
2.7
5.1
4.1
4.7
5.5
5.9
5.6
2.5
7.6
1.3
4.9
1.3
3.7
-2.4
9.4
-1.4
2.1
3.2
8.1
2.2
2.0
7.6
1.0
4.7
5.7
5.1
5.5
6.4
5.8
2.6
-3.4
9.7
-1.1
13.6
7.1
11.4
8.0
1.7
5.2
5.9
5.4
7.7
1.4
4.9
1.5
3.8
2.8
2.8
7.4
3.5
1973
5.4
7.2
0.9
1.7
-3.3
0.3
12.1
5.9
10.1
-2.4
10.6
-0.3
13.3
-1.8
9.0
’ Not available.
33.
Annual rate
of change
Year
Item
1977
1976
3.3
9.6
0.4
7.4
16.7
10.3
3.4
3.2
2.1
1.2
1978
1979
1980
-0.2
8.4
0.7
-0.4
9.9
-1.2
10.4
5.5
-0.3
8.6
5.1
7.4
2.7
-0.8
9.6
-1.5
10.4
4.8
0.4
-0.1
9.6
-1.5
9.7
4.4
7.9
8.2
8.1
8.2
0.9
6.5
10.9
2.3
4.9
4.6
4.8
1.5
5.3
5.2
5.2
0.5
7.8
3.8
6.4
2.9
11.9
2.5
8.0
2.1
4.4
25.9
13.1
3.4
7.4
4.6
2.4
8.3
1.7
5.7
5.2
5.6
20.1
8.8
0.9
8.2
0.5
7.3
4.7
6.5
-3.1
10.3
6.8
8.8
-0.2
8.5
0.7
8.7
3.6
7.0
10.1
10.0
9.2
-0.4
9.8
-3.3
10.3
8.3
9.7
8.6
0.5
10.0
-3.1
9.5
8.3
9.1
1.0
1950-80
2.5
2.2
2.4
3.5
3.2
3.4
7.1
1.9
4.8
4.4
4.7
2.1
5.7
2.1
6.8
1.6
3.5
3.1
3.4
4.8
4.2
4.6
6.0
r2.1
6.7
1.5
'4.8
3.8
4.3
r2.6
5.6
r2.7
6.7
1.5
'3.9
4.4
'4.2
0.5
10.5
-2.7
0.9
6.4
(’ )
( 1)
r2.9
'2.8
r5.0
11.0
1.9
( 1)
<1)
( ')
( 1)
( 1)
( ')
9.7
-1.4
8.6
1960-80
2.0
r = revised.
Quarterly indexes of productivity, hourly compensation, unit costs, and prices, seasonally adjusted
[1977 = 100]
Item
Private business sector:
Output per hour of all persons ............................
Compensation per hour ......................................
Real compensation per hour................................
Unit labor cost....................................................
Unit nonlabor payments......................................
Implicit price deflator ..........................................
Nonfarm business sector:
Output per hour of all persons ............................
Compensation per hour ......................................
Real compensation per hour................................
Unit labor cost....................................................
Unit nonlabor payments......................................
Implicit price deflator ..........................................
Nonfinancial corporations:
Output per hour of all employees........................
Compensation per hour ......................................
Real compensation per hour................................
Total unit costs ..................................................
Unit labor cost ............................................
Unit nonlabor costs......................................
Unit profits ........................................................
Implicit price deflator ..........................................
Manufacturing:
Output per hour of all persons ............................
Compensation per hour ......................................
Real compensation per hour................................
Unit labor cost....................................................
1Not available.
104
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Quarterly indexes
Annual
average
1978
1979
1980
1981
1979
1980
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
1
II
III
IV
I
99.4
119.2
99.5
119.9
110.9
116.9
991
131.1
96.4
132.3
118.4
127.6
100.0
109.4
100.5
109.4
106.7
108.5
99.9
111.9
100.3
99.7
115.0
99.6
118.0
100.3
118.5
110.4
115.8
99.2
120.5
99.0
121.4
111.5
118.1
99.0
123.0
r97.8
124.2
112.3
99.3
126.0
96.5
127.0
115.3
123.0
98.8
129.7
96.3
131.3
116.0
126.1
99.2
132.8
96.7
133.9
119.8
129.1
98.9
135.5
95.7
137.0
'99.9
'139.3
'95.8
'139.4
'127.9
135.5
99.0
118.8
99.2
98.6
130.5
96.0
132.4
117.6
127.4
99.9
109.4
100.5
109.5
105.1
108.0
99.1
117.6
99.9
118.7
107.7
115.1
98.7
119.9
98.6
121.5
109.3
117.4
98.6
122.7
97.6
124.4
98.6
125.6
96.2
127.4
114.0
122.9
97.9
129.0
95.7
131.8
115.2
126.3
98.8
131.9
96.1
133.5
119.2
128.8
98.7
135.0
95.4
136.8
100.3
118.6
99.0
116.8
118.2
112.7
99.0
114.8
100.8
100.4
109.2
100.6
100.0
100.7
113.7
100.3
119.8
98.5
118.2
119.5
114.6
97.5
115.9
99.8
128.9
95.7
129.2
129.1
129.3
83.4
124.1
101.5
132.1
96.2
131.1
130.2
133.8
89.1
126.4
101.5
135.1
95.4
p 134.1
p 133.1
p 136.9
p92.4
129.5
101.9
118.7
99.1
116.5
101.4
131.2
96.5
129.4
102.3
118.5
100.7
115.9
101.9
119.7
98.4
117.5
'100.5
129.6
96.2
'128.9
'100.2
133.5
'97.2
'133.2
103.0
136.8
96.7
132.8
120.0
108.5
116.2
130.4
95.9
129.7
129.4
130.2
90.2
125.2
100.2
107.6
108.7
104.4
105.9
107.4
100.6
112.1
111.1
115.4
109.6
113.4
99.8
111.9
100.3
99.5
114.9
100.4
115.4
107.1
109.1
112.2
107.0
110.5
100.5
111.5
99.9
109.6
112.6
100.6
114.5
100.1
112.2
106.0
108.9
109.6
113.8
107.8
105.6
111.5
111.0
100.2
102.0
111.5
100.0
100.2
107.3
109.3
112.9
101.7
109.1
101.4
114.5
117.5
99.8
115.3
116.8
111.2
r = revised.
120.2
110.2
119.7
99.7
122.4
97.3
121.3
122.8
117.2
92.2
118.1
101.9
122.0
97.0
119.8
125.3
95.9
124.2
125.4
120.9
95.5
121.0
r 101.7
125.0
95.7
r 122.9
122.8
132.2
122.1
131.9
'99.7
'138.7
'95.4
'139.2
'128.0
'135.4
p 102.9
p 138.7
P95.4
p 136.3
p 134.9
p 140.2
p 105.1
p 132.8
'103.8
'140.4
96.5
'135.2
34. Percent change from preceding quarter and year in productivity, hourly compensation, unit costs, and prices,
seasonally adjusted at annual rate
[1977 = 100]
Quarterly percent change at annual rate
Item
Private business sector:
Output per hour of all persons ....................
Compensation per hour ..............................
Real compensation per hour........................
Unit labor co st............................................
Unit nonlabor payments ..............................
Implicit price deflator ..................................
Nonfarm business sector:
Output per hour of all persons ....................
Compensation per hour ..............................
Real compensation per hour........................
Unit labor c o s t............................................
Unit nonlabor payments ..............................
Implicit price deflator ..................................
Nonfinancial corporations:
Output per hour of all employees ................
Compensation per hour ..............................
Real compensation per hour........................
Total unit costs ..........................................
Unit labor costs ......................................
Unit nonlabor costs..................................
Unit profits..................................................
Implicit price deflator ..................................
Manufacturing:
Output per hour of all persons ....................
Compensation per hour ..............................
Real compensation per hour........................
Unit labor c o s t............................................
1Not available.
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
III 1979
to
IV 1979
IV 1979
to
I 1980
-1.1
1.3
10.4
-5.2
9.0
11.3
9.7
-1.9
0.0
-3.0
8.6
-4.9
9.8
2.6
7.4
-0.3
9.6
-4.0
9.9
3.3
7.8
-2.4
8.9
-4.6
9.9
-5.7
9.9
14.6
11.3
1.2
1 1980
to
II 1980
12.2
III 1980
to
IV 1980
IV 1980
to
I 1981
IV 1978
to
IV 1979
11979
to
I 1980
II 1979
to
II 1980
III 1979
to
III 1980
1.5
9.7
-1.2
8.4
-4.0
9.7
10.3
9.9
4.3
11.7
'0.2
'7.1
'17.7
'10.4
-0.9
9.9
-2.5
10.9
2.9
-0.4
9.6
-4.1
-0.8
9.9
-4.0
10.2
8.2
5.2
8.4
5.1
9.0
3.8
9.3
1.4
5.3
14.9
-0.4
9.6
-2.9
'4.0
'11.4
-1.1
9.6
-2.7
10.9
3.0
8.3
-0.9
9.4
-4.3
10.4
6.4
9.1
-1.2
9.7
-4.2
6.9
9.7
-2.5
9.9
9.1
9.6
6.9
10.3
2.3
-0.1
9.2
-3.2
9.4
9.4
9.5
15.7
9.9
-0.8
9.8
-2.6
10.7
10.7
-0.6
9.5
-4.2
-0.7
9.7
-4.1
10.3
-2.3
066.9
010.7
-15.4
7.8
-9.5
8.5
10.5
16.3
-17.2
9.1
8.9
16.8
-8.6
9.1
'3.1
'10.9
'-0 .5
'7.5
-0.1
9.4
-2.9
9.6
' -0.3
9.1
-4.5
'8.8
' -1.7
'9.1
-4.5
'11.2
' —1.6
-0.8
14.4
1.8
8.1
10.5
13.6
9.8
2.6
11.2
-1.7
14.6
4.2
11.3
-0.5
12.0
8.2
9.8
-5.7
9.8
-1.0
17.0
9.3
-20.2
7.8
13.5
15.3
10.3
30.6
-41.9
10.5
3.2
14.7
30.3
7.9
0.1
8.1
-5.4
8.0
'0.7
'- 4 .6
15.5
r2.1
r 21.1
'-1 .1
12.7
4.6
'-14.0
11.0
11.6
8.6
10.1
-5.6
r 10.8
12.6
Percent change from same quarter a year ago
II 1980
to
III 1980
6.2
10.1
10.0
10.0
'11.7
10.2
-2.4
' —1.3
'-
0.0
'7.2
'20.8
'11.3
0 5.6
011.2
0-0.2
06.6
0 5.3
010.1
10.6
10.0
10.6
10.1
12.2
10.8
11.0
12.0
IV 1979
to
IV 1980
0.0
-0.1
-2.3
10.3
7.4
9.4
-2.1
10.3
9.4
0.1
10.0
1.2
11.0
11.6
-1.2
'13.4
10.2
10.0
-0.1
10.0
-2.3
9.9
10.8
10.2
1.8
11980
to
I 1981
'0.6
10.5
-0.7
'9.8
'10.9
'10.1
1.0
'10.4
-0.8
'9.2
'12.3
'10.2
10.3
-2.0
10.5
8.4
16.8
0.3
9.6
»2.9
p 10.7
p -0.5
»9.7
»7.6
p 15.9
p 10.0
p9.7
1.1
12.1
10.8
'2.1
'12.3
'0.9
'10.0
-0.4
r = revised.
105
LABOR-MANAGEMENT DATA
the agreement. Changes over the life of the agreement refer to total
agreed upon settlements (exclusive of potential cost-of-living escalator
adjustments) expressed at an average annual rate. Wage-rate changes
are expressed as a percent of straight-time hourly earnings, while wage
and benefit changes are expressed as a percent of total compensation.
M a jor c o llective b a r g a in in g d a t a are obtained from
contracts on file at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, direct
contact with the parties, and from secondary sources. A d d i
tional detail is published in C u rre n t W age D e velo p m en ts, a
m onth ly periodical of the Bureau. D ata on work stoppages
are based on confidential responses to questionnaires m ailed
by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to parties involved in work
stoppages. Stoppages initially com e to the attention of the
Bureau from reports of Federal and State m ediation agencies,
newspapers, and union and industry publications.
Effective wage-rate adjustments going into effect in major
bargaining units measure changes actually placed into effect during the
reference period, whether the result of a newly negotiated increase, a
deferred increase negotiated in an earlier year, or as a result of a costof-living escalator adjustment. Average adjustments are affected by
workers receiving no adjustment, as well as by those receiving in
creases or decreases.
Definitions
Work stoppages include all known strikes or lockouts involving six
workers or more and lasting a full shift or longer. Data cover all
workers idle one shift or more in establishments directly involved in a
stoppage. They do not measure the indirect or secondary effect on
other establishments whose employees are idle owing to material or
service shortages.
Data on wage changes apply to private nonfarm industry agree
ments covering 1,000 workers or more. Data on wage and benefit
changes co m b in ed apply only to those agreements covering 5,000
workers or more. First-year wage settlements refer to pay changes go
ing into effect within the first 12 months after the effective date of
35.
Wage and benefit settlements in major collective bargaining units, 1976 to date
[In percent]
Quarterly average
Annual average
Sector and measure
Wage and benefit settlements, all industries:
First-year settlements ..................................
Annual rate over life of contract....................
1977
6.2
8.3
6.3
8.4
6.4
7.8
5.8
7.6
6.4
Manufacturing:
First-year settlements..............................
Annual rate over life of contract ..............
8.9
6.0
8.4
5.5
Nonmanufacturing (excluding construction):
First-year settlements..............................
Annual rate over life of contract ..............
8.6
7.2
Construction:
First-year settlements..............................
Annual rate over life of contract ..............
6.1
6.2
Wage rate settlements, all industries:
First-year settlements ..................................
Annual rate over life of contract....................
Digitized for
106FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
8.5
6.6
9.6
1978
1979
9.0
6.6
1981 e
1980
1979
1976
1980
10.4
7.1
»
III
IV
I
8.8
10.2
7.4
11.4
7.2
8.5
6.7
6.1
10.4
7.3
8.2
I
II
III
IV
I
2.8
10.5
7.8
9.0
8.5
5.3
6.1
6.0
6.0
9.5
7.1
6.6
8.9
7.2
6.8
5.1
6.3
5.3
6.5
9.1
7.3
10.5
7.4
8.3
6.5
9.0
7.7
6.6
8.3
6.9
5.4
7.4
5.4
8.7
7.7
8.1
9.7
6.3
4.7
5.6
4.2
7.2
5.7
6.7
5.1
8.4
5.6
7.8
5.8
9.0
6.7
8.0
8.0
7.6
6.5
6.2
9.5
5.9
3.2
5.6
8.5
5.8
9.4
6.5
7.8
7.4
9.4
7.6
10.3
8.5
9.5
5.9
8.2
6.8
8.3
7.6
6.3
6.3
6.5
88
13.6
11.5
9.7
8.7
8.3
9.7
8.5
7.5
7.6
10.8
12.2
13.4
10.4
15.4
13.0
14.3
9.1
6.2
7.4
8.3
6.6
5.7
8.2
12.0
11.6
36.
Effective wage adjustments going into effect in major collective bargaining units, 1976 to date
[In percent]
Average annual changes
Average quarterly changes
Sector and measure
1979
1976
1977
Total effective wage rate adjustment, all industries ..............
Change resulting from —
Current settlement................................................
Prior settlement....................................................
Escalator provision ..............................................
8.1
8.0
3.2
3.2
1.6
3.0
3.2
1.7
Manufacturing ............................................................
Nonmanufacturing ......................................................
8.5
7.7
8.4
7.6
1978
8.2
2.0
1979
1980
9.1
9.9
3.7
2.4
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.6
3.5
8.6
9.6
7.9
8.8
2.8
10.2
9.7
1980
1981 p
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
1.4
2.6
1.1
1.0
3.3
1.6
1.6
3.3
3.5
1.3
1.3
1.0
1.0
1.2
.5
.4
.7
.4
.5
.7
1.0
1.4
.8
1.7
.5
.3
.2
2.4
2.0
3.4
3.2
2.9
4.0
1.7
1.6
1.0
.2
.6
.6
.5
1.5
1.4
2.3
2.8
3.2
3.4
1.0
1.3
1.2
.7
.5
.5
.6
1.1
NOTE: Because of rounding and compounding, the sums of individual items may not equal totals.
37.
Work stoppages, 1947 to date
Number of stoppages
Month and year
1947
1948
1949
1950
Beginning in
month or year
In effect
during month
Workers involved
Beginning in
month or year
(thousands)
Days idle
In effect
during month
(thousands)
Percent of
estimated
working time
....................
....................
....................
....................
3,693
3,419
3,606
4.843
2,170
1,960
3,030
2,410
34 600
34 100
50,500
38 800
30
28
44
33
1951 .................
1952 ....................
1953 ....................
1954 ....................
1955 ....................
4,737
5,117
5,091
3,468
4,320
2,220
3,540
2,400
1,530
2,650
22 900
59 100
28 300
600
28 200
22
18
22
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
....................
....................
....................
....................
....................
3,825
3,673
3,694
3,708
3,333
1,900
1,390
2,060
1,880
1,320
33,100
16 500
23 900
69 000
19 100
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
....................
....................
....................
....................
....................
3,367
3,614
3,362
3,655
3,963
1,450
1,230
941
1,640
1,550
16 300
18 600
16,100
22 900
23 300
15
15
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
....................
....................
....................
....................
....................
4,405
4,595
5,045
5,700
5,716
1,960
2,870
2,649
2,481
3,305
25 400
42 100
49,018
42 869
414
66
15
25
28
24
37
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
....................
....................
....................
....................
....................
5,138
5,010
5,353
6,074
5,031
3,280
1,714
2,251
2,778
1,746
47 589
27 066
27 948
47,991
31 237
26
15
14
24
16
1976
1977
1978
1979
....................
....................
....................
....................
5,648
5,506
4,230
4,827
2,420
2,040
1,623
1,727
37 859
35 822
36 922
34,754
19
17
17
.15
2,099
2,441
3,954
3,079
3,407
2,195
.10
.21
.15
.20
.11
617
614
647
1,419
5,117
5,857
.06
.03
.03
.04
.07
.25
.31
1 980p:
M ay........
June
J u ly ........
August . . .
September
October ..
November
December
19819: January ..
February .
March . . .
April........
M ay........
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
388
385
414
374
420
347
201
66
253
347
314
371
473
704
699
733
704
724
630
427
247
297
517
545
560
688
116
173
241
80
126
90
52
18
50
90
271
101
152
22
172
224
336
211
200
101
48
68
247
136
336
273
383
1,110
18
48
24
12
18
50
14
11
13
11
.13
107
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